Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
149 AM EDT Thu May 18 2017 High pressure will maintain dry weather and above normal temperatures through the remainder of the work week. Shower and thunderstorm chances will increase by late in the weekend as moisture increases ahead of an approaching cold front. Early this morning: Upper level ridging remains. Upper ridge still across the area, with Bermuda high in control at the surface through the day. This will allow afternoon temperatures to climb into the lower 90s.
High pressure building over the west coast will be the predominant weather feature over the next several days. Most of northern California will see fair skies although some high clouds will spill over the ridge as it builds today. Upper ridge axis centers over the coast on Friday for still more warming bringing highs up to about 10 degrees above normal.
An approaching cold front will bring a chance of thunderstorms this afternoon and evening, some possibly severe. This will occur late afternoon into the evening ahead of the cold front. One with a prefrontal trof late afternoon and another in the evening. Cold front crosses late at night dropping temperatures into the upper 50s to mid 60s. The trough goes through aloft while high pressure at the surface builds in during the afternoon ending the showers. Highs in the lower 60s in the north to mostly 70s for northeast Pennsylvania and Sullivan County New York.
237 AM PDT Thu May 18 2017 Mostly clear and warmer weather will begin today as offshore flow and high pressure aloft settle into the region. High pressure aloft and an offshore pressure gradient have begun to erode the deck of marine layer clouds. The dry air mass continues through the weekend as the high pressure aloft peaks, even as the offshore flow relaxes.
A low pressure system over Utah will bring cool and breezy conditions to the area today along with some showers over Lincoln and Mohave Counties.
A cold front will move into northern Oklahoma on Friday, and by evening, it should be near I-44.
Rain will change to snow across the higher elevations of the Black Hills, but accumulations tonight will be minimal. Lows will range from the lower 30s in the Hills to the lower 40s across south central SD. On Thursday, western low pressure system will shift into CO. As cooler air wraps into the region Thursday night, lows will dip into the lower 30s across northeastern WY and the Black Hills, and the continuing precipitation will mix with and change to snow. Currently thinking the models are overestimating snowfall amounts, and going with generally 1-3 inches, with locally higher amounts possible in the higher elevations of the Black Hills.
350 AM CDT Thu May 18 2017 Late night sfc analysis shows high pressure centered off the Carolina coast providing for a continued srly low-level flow over the forecast area. Water vapor imagery shows troffing over the wrn 2/3 of the CONUS with a cutoff low spinning into the Rockies this morning. Rain chances ramp up for the weekend as the low opens up and ejects newd into the nrn Plains/wrn Great Lakes, pulling an associated trof axis/sfc front towards the forecast area, along with more enhanced/deeper moisture.
424 AM EDT Thu May 18 2017 Unseasonably warm conditions will continue today in southerly flow ahead of a cold front.
For tonight, tranquil weather is expected as a cold front continues to sink southward across the greater region. We will see cooler lows as a drier airmass advects in the wake of the front. The cold front mentioned in the short term period will return northward as a warm front. How far this warm front makes it north is the main question. Have much higher confidence of more significant severe weather across the southeastern near the dryline to the SSW and the bisecting warm front. Putting this all together, the SE zones will have the highest chance of severe if the warm sector placement from the ARW and EC is correct. The low clouds should dissipate across southwest Kansas this morning with continued cloudy skies across west central and central Kansas.
A weak pre-frontal trough may generate a few isolated sprinkles or showers tonight. Mainly dry otherwise with a low chance for isolated thunderstorms along the primary cold front late Thursday afternoon into Thursday evening. Drier and cooler air then funnels in on Friday, with chances for rain and perhaps a few thunderstorms returning over the weekend. Cooler/dry conditions will result in light northeast low level flow for the most part. However, there remains some guidance that tries to bring some lighter rain back in during the afternoon with renewed/elevated theta-e push in advance of the next upper trough edging east into the High Plains. Convectively induced waves in tandem with returning frontal zone, and northeastward transport of deeper moisture in advance of this eastward advancing upper trough, will likely generate a few rounds of rain and perhaps a few storms this weekend.
612 AM CDT Sun Jul 23 2017 Today's temperature forecast is quite challenging as there are several competing elements that if one is weaker than the other or vice versa then temperatures could be much warmer, or not as a bad as it has been. Second, where the cloud cover moves out earlier in the day, likely the northern half of the forecast area, highs should climb into the low to middle 90s. But, a secondary cold front will be moving into the area from the north and may get into northern MO before peak heating, limiting their potential warm up. Should this slow down then the northern counties will be in the lower to perhaps middle 90s.
Best chances of showers and thunderstorms today will be in north Arkansas near a cold front that will move into the state later today. Today Through Monday Night The high pressure will weaken somewhat over the area for the short term period. The cold front will move to near the Missouri border today. Temperatures will be a bit cooler on Monday with highs mainly in the low 90s.
A cold front will drop slowly southward across Kentucky through the forecast period.
Meanwhile, ridging aloft is slowly building across the Great Basin. Near the surface, a broad area of high pressure extends from the Dakotas southward into the Central Plains. There could be some lingering showers or isolated thunderstorms in south central Kansas during the morning hours before the trough axis clears that area. Given the aforementioned trends, think that chances for additional precipitation through the rest of today are fairly slim given how far south of the area that the cold front has moved.
840 AM EDT Sun Jul 23 2017 High pressure continues to dominate the weather until late tonight. Low pressure moves in from the west on Monday and tracks south of the area.
Surface dewpoints are in the 70s areawide with the highest readings across portions of West Tennessee and East Arkansas. Each day this week there is a chance of rain in the Mid-South as either frontal systems move across the area or afternoon and evening thunderstorms develop under a high pressure system.
Skies are mostly clear now, but moisture will increase across the south through the day and into the evening as southwest flow continues in advance of an upper level low just off the coast of northern CA. Very warm temperatures today, about 5 to 10 degrees above normal and near 100 in the lower valleys, as southerly flow bringing the moisture also brings heat.
1022 AM EDT Sun Jul 23 2017 A weak upper trough over the northern Gulf of Mexico is enhancing showers and storms over the northern half of the coastal waters this morning.
The morning Cape sounding shows a layer of drier air just below the high cloud deck which could produce some strong downbursts. Surface analysis shows Atlc low level ridge axis draped across Lake Okeechobee, a little farther north than yesterday.
Broad high pressure ridge aloft continues to build over much of the Great Basin resulting in a west to northwest flow aloft over Colorado.
Expect this low level cloud deck to continue slowly clearing from the north and west late this morning, picking up the pace a bit more this afternoon. Band of sc associated with weak inverted trough may initially slow warmup this morning and cooler airmass in place so limited temperatures to the 70s today.
Generally weak mean layer flow should keep much of this activity tied to the higher terrain, and also promote locally heavy precipitation due to slow movement of the individual cells.
Behind the boundary temperatures will be a few degrees cooler than yesterday, therefore the excessive heat warning has been downgraded to an advisory.
/issued 335 AM CDT Sun Jul 23 2017/ (Today and Tonight) A weakness in the upper level ridge will continue across West Central Texas today. Overnight lows will mainly be in the low to mid 70s. However, the upper level high begins to strengthen at that point and the remainder of the work week looks hot and dry.
However, considerable dry air was present in the lower and middle troposphere. An upper-level composite analysis shows a deep layer mean anticyclone persisting over the western North Atlantic with a ridge extending west-southwestward to the Gulf of Mexico. The mid-level ridge axis runs south of the Straits of Florida, while the low-level ridge axis lies just north of the Florida Keys. An aging Saharan Air Layer plume is aligned along the mid-level ridge axis and extending about 100 miles north and south.
612 AM CDT Sun Jul 23 2017 High pressure over the region today will keep conditions dry with pleasant temperatures for eastern areas.
An upper level trough over British Columbia will produce mostly cloudy skies and cooler temperatures over Western Washington today, although the clouds will begin dissipating during the afternoon.
600 AM MDT Sun Jul 23 2017 Large scale ridge has amplifies over the western US, with NW flow over the Northern Plains. If there was a period to monitor it may be Monday/Monday night with better instability developing as southerly flow in the low levels brings higher Tds back to our CWA.
753 AM EDT Sun Jul 23 2017 Aviation Low pressure passing through the state today will bring scattered showers and thunderstorms.
/issued 425 AM CDT Sun Jul 23 2017/ SHORT TERM (Now through Monday): A weak mid-level low will continue to fill as it moves into the upper Texas coast underneath a broad ridge of high pressure located over the Central US.
High pressure over the region today will keep conditions dry with pleasant temperatures for eastern areas.
A broad upper level low was east of the local forecast area, with a tail trough enhancing upper level dynamics across NE FL under moist mid/low level WSW steering flow out of the Gulf of Mexico.
631 AM CDT Sun Jul 23 2017 Clusters of showers/storms should continue to gradually shift south and become less numerous this morning, along and ahead of a 700-500 mb trough axis.
1222 PM EDT Sun Jul 23 2017 High pressure continues to dominate the weather until late tonight. Low pressure moves in from the west on Monday and tracks south of the area.
809 AM EDT Sun Jul 23 2017 Upper level ridging will weaken across the area today.
230 AM EDT Sat Nov 4 2017 A cold front will push through the area this evening.
A warm front will then approach the area later today with increasing clouds and afternoon rain showers. Highs Sunday will be in the 60s to the lower 70s. Showers were already developing early this morning over western IL and eastern IA in an area of frontal lift ahead a developing low pressure area over MO. Have increased rainfall amounts with the highest values from Ft Wayne east and south to around 2 inches.
1001 PM MST Fri Nov 3 2017 Weak high pressure will build across the Southwest with a slight warming trend this weekend.
449 AM EDT Sat Nov 4 2017 A diffuse cold front will extend through the forecast area today into tonight.
526 AM EDT Sat Nov 4 2017 Dry conditions can be expected until a warm front returns shower chances later today. Weak ridging under the passing wave, in the warm sector, will keep this portion of the area mainly dry.
MVFR conditions are then expected to persist at MAF through mid- morning, though will monitor trends and amend as needed, especially if the low clouds/fog appear to approach INK/FST. /issued 227 PM CDT Fri Nov 3 2017/ A weak cold front sagged into the northern Permian Basin this morning but southwest winds (although weak) have returned this afternoon.
A mid level disturbance passing north of our area has forced a cold front into Central Texas this afternoon. Convection is not expected due a strong mid level capping inversion from the Subtropical Ridge over Mexico extending into Southern Texas. The Ridge continues this weekend while a moist southerly lower level flow maintains a pattern of night into morning low clouds and fog mixing out to afternoon sunshine.
435 AM CDT Sat Nov 4 2017 A fairly persistent forecast will continue across South Texas as a mid level ridge remains overhead.
312 AM EDT Sat Nov 4 2017 High pressure will build over the region today and will shift east overnight.
An anticyclone centered over the Deep South/nrn GOMex will retrograde into the wrn Atlc and into a position where it will block an inverted trof NE of the Bahamas from advancing toward the FL Peninsula.
406 AM EDT Sat Nov 4 2017 Dry conditions can be expected until a warm front returns shower chances later today. Weak ridging under the passing wave, in the warm sector, will keep this portion of the area mainly dry.
Overall, drier weather taking hold on Sunday, with area in the warm sector of an approaching low pressure system, and associated cold front. Good southwesterly flow will take hold out ahead of the front, with temperatures warming nicely across the area, generally topping out in the upper 70s to lower 80s across much of the lowlands.
1150 PM MDT Fri Nov 3 2017 Low clouds have mixed east to the KS border at mid-afternoon, although residual cool air along the lower Arkansas Valley has been a little more stubborn to mix out.
402 AM CDT Sat Nov 4 2017 High pressure over the Great Lakes is losing ground to the approach of a series of waves out of the west as an upper low tries to take shape over the Northern Rockies. further assisted by showery activities enhancing the low level RH. but moving eastward in the afternoon/evening hours where the low level jet starts to ramp up.
644 AM EDT Sat Nov 4 2017 A warm front will approach the area today with increasing clouds and afternoon rain showers. Highs Sunday will be in the 60s to the lower 70s. Showers were already developing early this morning over western IL and eastern IA in an area of frontal lift ahead a developing low pressure area over MO. Have increased rainfall amounts with the highest values from Ft Wayne east and south to around 2 inches.
319 AM MST Sat Nov 4 2017 Weak high pressure will build across the Southwest with a slight warming trend this weekend.
401 AM EDT Sat Nov 4 2017 Weak high pressure will remain across the region through Saturday night. A warm front will move north through the region on Sunday.
Temperatures will be near or slightly cooler than seasonal normal, primarily from the upper 20s to middle 30s. However, since air temperatures will be somewhat near or just below the freezing mark, and and road temperatures are still somewhat warm, this snowfall forecast is more representative of what will accumulate on the ground rather than the roads. The low's cold front will swing through the Northland later Saturday night through Sunday morning.
357 AM PDT Sat Nov 4 2017 A storm system moving through the region this weekend will bring cooler temperatures and some rain to our area, along with significant accumulations of snow in the higher elevations of the Sierra Nevada.
155 AM EDT Sat Nov 04 2017 A cold front will drop southward through central North Carolina overnight, bringing clouds and cooler temperatures for Saturday. Cloud cover will continue to increase/thicken overnight nw-se as a cold front slides southward across the region. Enough convergence along the low level boundary will trigger/sustain a few showers but most locations will remain dry. H CAD regime will hang out over central NC for the day on Saturday as high pressure moves across the northeastern CONUS. Lows in the lower 50s with a few 40s possible across the western Piedmont.
307 AM MDT Sat Nov 4 2017 Current surface map places weak low near the Black Hills with cold front moving through southeast Montana into northeast Wyoming. Cold front slips through western South Dakota this morning. High pressure builds across the northern plains Sunday.
Front and associated upper trough shifts south of the CWA this evening with drying conditions in the Central Valley. Another short wave trough is forecast to move across Interior NorCal Sunday into Sunday night.
To the south, a middle and upper anticyclone has strengthened over Central Old Mexico. South of that, there is a cold front from east of New England down into the Tennessee Valley. Closer to the Keys, there is a weak surface 850 mb trough a few hundred miles east of Long Island, Bahamas. Temperatures across the islands are in the lower to mid 70s with dewpoints close to 70. Over the islands winds are only between 5 and 10 mph owing to decoupling of the cooler shallow waters to the north.
1058 PM PDT Fri Nov 3 2017 As low pressure moves east and out of the region, the snow and precip will taper off through this evening. This wind will weaken overnight with mostly clear skies still allowing temperatures to drop overnight into the lower and middle teens across the north. A few snow showers will continue in the central ID Panhandle overnight with not much accumulation in the higher terrain.
557 AM EDT Sat Nov 4 2017 A warm front will lift northward into Pennsylvania late this weekend.
Today Through Sunday As of 20Z, a quasi-cold front was oriented NW to SE from near Fayetteville to Little Rock to Stuttgart.
Snow levels have lowered to around 4000 feet as colder air settles in behind a departing cold front, which is situated near the Nevada border. The precipitation will continue to gradually shift southward through the day as drier air arrives with the passage of an upper trough. Temperatures will be much cooler with valley highs in the 40s. Most areas will be dry tonight as the current system moves out and before the next trough arrives on Sunday.
High pressure will prevail at the surface across our area, and combined with weak upper level flow this will result in continued dry conditions across our area. High pressure will prevail through the weekend in the lower levels. The trough will move east on Sunday with mostly clear skies returning.
428 AM CDT Sat Nov 4 2017 The main forecast concern is timing of the exiting precipitation and remain headlines early this morning and then the movement of the cold front east over the cwa tonight. The latest water vapor imagery showing the initial short wave trough exiting to the east this morning. We should remain in between system for the day as the next trough moves east over Montana and into the Dakotas. There may be some patchy flurry or freezing drizzle activity into central areas early, so will we retain some of e advisory until its original expiration. The cold front sweeps east tonight and we will increase pops from west to east overnight.
141 AM EDT Sat Nov 4 2017 Dry conditions can be expected until a warm front returns shower chances later today. Weak ridging under the passing wave, in the warm sector, will keep this portion of the area mainly dry.
107 AM EDT Sat Nov 4 2017 Dry conditions can be expected until a warm front returns shower chances later today. Weak ridging under the passing wave, in the warm sector, will keep this portion of the area mainly dry.
403 AM EDT Sat Nov 4 2017 A diffuse cold front will extend through the forecast area today into tonight.
Stratus will remain socked in, with fairly steady temperatures ranging from the low 50s to around 60 degrees. The cold front that moved through the area early this morning will stall out to our south over Tennessee overnight before drifting back north into Kentucky on Saturday. The biggest question of this period is Sunday night with the passage of another cold front.
Visibilities will improve by mid morning Saturday with the low clouds remaining across the area.
423 AM CDT Sat Nov 4 2017 Short term concerns are the fog and low clouds this morning, followed by the warm front location this afternoon. Or, if the low clouds don't erode by mid afternoon, temperatures could just rise to the low/mid 70s, especially given current temps in the low 50s. The low level flow just off the surface is from the southwest, which should help erode the clouds this afternoon, but the temperatures should stay quite cool much of the day with the clouds. Earlier data suggested that Sunday would be quite warm, but the next cold front may arrive earlier on Sunday than previously expected, suppressing highs across northeast Oklahoma a bit.
The lower stratus deck will continue to move into our region from the southwest with lowering cloud bases through the evening. New model guidance has been trending cooler for Saturday highs with more in the way of cloud cover. Even though this is cooler than our previous forecast it still is shaping up to be the nicest day of the week ahead. An upper trough will start to deepen across the Pacific northwest with rather zonal flow over our forecast area. A cold front is expected to push through Saturday night into Sunday morning making for a less pleasant Sunday with cool north winds and highs mainly in the 40s across Nebraska to the lower 50s over northern Kansas.
Mostly dry weather is expected today with another cold front to bring rain and mountain snow for Sunday. Showers diminished across the region early this morning as the cold front tracked eastward. However, mid and high clouds will increase over the region in advance of the next incoming cold front.
The latest HRRR run is showing the wind gusts picking up a little later this morning, mainly after 12Z, along the lower east slopes of the eastern mtns, across northern El Paso county and in western portions of southern El Paso county. Gusty winds will lead to blowing snow over the higher mtns passes which could cause travel problems at times. Tonight it will still be windy over the mountain areas, and probably along the lower east slopes of the eastern mtns.
SHORT TERM (Today through Sunday): A Mid-level ridge centered over northern Mexico and south Texas will provide subsidence across deep south Texas through the period. High temperatures will generally range from the mid 80s near the coast to the low to mid 90s inland. Low temperatures tonight will generally be in the upper 60s to the lower 70s area wide.
248 AM EDT Sat Nov 4 2017 A weak cold front will move across the area early today before stalling. A strong area of high pressure will follow as it ridges down the east coast and into the Carolinas.
148 AM EDT Sat Nov 4 2017 A large area of high pressure over southern Canada will build into the region tonight.
344 AM CDT Sat Nov 4 2017 After a day of cooler temperatures yesterday, we will see things warm up rapidly again today and Saturday.
440 AM EDT Sat Nov 4 2017 A warm front will lift northwards today. A strong cold front will bring the potential for severe weather Sunday evening into Sunday night. Although temperatures are starting out in the 30s and 40s this morning, temperatures are expected to climb into the upper 50s to upper 60s across the region today as a warm front lifts northward. Went close to guidance for high temperatures on Sunday with highs in the lower 70s to upper 70s. Thunderstorms in advance of a cold front will begin to push into the region at the very end of the short term period.
513 AM CDT Sat Nov 4 2017 Cooler temps in the I-30 corridor and North as weak 1015mb bubble of high pressure over OK has nosed into our area over the last day or so. Otherwise just a slightly cooler day with the overall warm regime to persist under flat ridging into the new week.