Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
334 PM CST THU NOV 5 2015 WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO DEPICT A SEASONALLY STRONG UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. SFC COLD FRONT WAS ANALYZED FROM NEAR KMCW TO KFOD TO KICL. MUCH COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT SURGE INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT. MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY WITH CANADIAN AIRMASS SETTLING INTO IOWA. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE LATER IN THE DAY AS ANOTHER UPPER TROF AXIS APPROACHES FROM THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS.
BUT ALSO EXPECT AS THE FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVE INTO THE MID STATE. LATEST EURO SOLUTION MOST PROGRESSIVE IN DEVELOPING A CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE CNTRL MS RIVER VALLEY SUN NIGHT USHERING IN SOME MOISTURE ACROSS THE MID STATE FROM THE SE ON MON.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THE HIGH WILL BREAK DOWN THIS WEEKEND. AS A COLD FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES MOVES SOUTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL ALSO BE COOLER WITH TEMPS IN THE -9 TO -10C RANGE. AN NON-TROPICAL LOW SHOULD DEVELOP OFF THE CAROLINA COAST PUSHING THE COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA.
WATCHING NARROW RIBBON OF INSTABILITY AHEAD OF EASTWARD ADVANCING COLD FRONT IN IA. PLENTY OF FORCING PARAMETERS COMING TOGETHER WITH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH COLD FRONT. COLD LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH IN PLACE. MID LEVEL FLOW REMAINS STRONG FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH A POSITIVE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SET UP FROM MN INTO NEBRASKA. 925 TEMPS IN THE 2-4C RANGE SO A MUCH COOLER DAY IN THE WORKS.
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE RUNNING SOME 6-7C/KM SO ELEVATED STORMS ARE CERTAINLY A GOOD POSSIBILITY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. /ISSUED 149 AM CST THU NOV 5 2015/ SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING AS SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE ROCKIES MIGRATES EASTWARD. THIS TROUGH WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR INCREASED RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE ARKLATEX LATER TODAY. RAINFALL RATES ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH AS THE UPPER-TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY PROGRESS ACROSS THE AREA LATER TONIGHT.
A COLD FRONT IS PROG TO SLOWLY PUSH S INTO THE REGION WITH VSBYS LOWERING AHEAD OF THE FRONT AT KCRP/KVCT/KALI.
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE RUNNING SOME 6-7C/KM SO ELEVATED STORMS ARE CERTAINLY A GOOD POSSIBILITY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY FOR ALL OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. SNOW CONTINUES TO FALL THIS MORNING ACROSS WESTERN NEW MEXICO AS THE LAST IN A SERIES OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS APPROACHES NM. WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. CLEAR SKIES AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT IN ADDITION TO COOLER TEMPERATURES BROUGHT BEHIND THE TROUGH PASSAGE.
IT HAS BEEN BREEZY AT TIMES TODAY ACROSS SOME OF THE RIDGELINES AS WELL AS MUCH OF THE SNAKE PLAIN AND SOUTH-CENTRAL HIGHLANDS. THERE COULD BE SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST.
320 PM EST THU NOV 5 2015 LOW PRESSURE LIFTING THROUGH CENTRAL CANADA WILL PULL A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT FRIDAY EVENING.
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS TO THE NORTH AND OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. 50 INCHES WITH MUCH OF IT CONFINED BELOW 850MB AS MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THINGS DRY ALOFT.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST AND A TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. A LOW PRESSURE IS PRESENT INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND SOUTHERN CANADA WITH COLD FRONT STRETCHING SOUTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MODELS CONTINUE TO BE SLOWER WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE FRIDAY. MODELS INDICATE THAT THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES QUICKLY INTO THE GREAT LAKES WITH AN IMPRESSIVE 130-150KT UPPER JET FORMING THERE. AS THE TROUGH LIFTS OFF. HAVE PUSHED THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES OFF UNTIL AFTER THE 21Z FRIDAY.
SHOWERS DECREASE LATER TODAY AND NIGHT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. A DRY DAY FOR FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS INLAND.
CLOUD SHIELD HAS MOVED OVER THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF A FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE TROUGH. SO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS MAY SEE A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE DRY AND A BIT WARMER THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY.
255 PM CST THU NOV 5 2015 THE 20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED THAT A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WAS SITUATED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND WAS TRYING TO BUILD IN SOME SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPS WERE RANGING FROM AROUND 70 IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE ALSO ATTEMPTING TO MOVE NORTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA IN THE LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW. TEMPS WILL REMAIN UNUSUALLY MILD TONIGHT AND WILL GO WITH THE SLIGHTLY COOLER NAM TEMPS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT. A SURFACE COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO EXTEND SOUTHWEST FROM NORTHERN MISSOURI INTO NORTHEAST TEXAS BY 00Z TONIGHT.
250 PM EST THU NOV 5 2015 HIGH PRESSURE LOSING GRIP TODAY.
CIGS WILL LOWER TONIGHT AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
UPPER TROUGH AXIS HAS CROSSED CO AND WE ARE NOW IN A SHOWERY POST- FRONTAL REGIME. THE LOWER ELEVATIONS SHOULD STAY DRY BUT WITH INCREASING CLOUDS FRI AFTERNOON. ROSE AN UPR TROF WL BE MOVING SOUTH OVR THE AREA FRI NIGHT AND WL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS.
331 PM CST THU NOV 5 2015 A COLD FRONT. ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN NW WISCONSIN. THE COLD FRONT WILL EXIT EAST OF THE NORTHLAND BY LATE THIS EVENING. LEANED ON THE WARMER GUIDANCE. HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE LOW 40S IN NW WISCONSIN TO THE UPPER 30S IN NE MINNESOTA. FRIDAY NIGHT STARTS OUT WITH AN UPPER TROF MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHLAND.
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY. A COOLER. SUNSHINE SELF SABOTAGE WITH TALL CU OVER THE HIGHER ELEVS NOW. EXPECT SOME PATCHY FOG/DZ ESP ON THE HIGHER ELEVS.
230 PM CST THU NOV 5 2015 THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH WILL RAPIDLY DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TOWARD THE PLAINS ON FRIDAY. THE TROUGH WILL USHER IN A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR BACK ACROSS THE SANDHILLS REGION AND THE POTENTIAL OF LIGHT QPF TO THE NORTHERN SANDHILLS AND SW NEBRASKA. THE REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL AIR WILL ALLOW FOR HIGHS IN THE LOW 40S TO LOWER 50S /FROM NORTH TO SOUTH/. THE LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST ASSUMES THAT SUFFICIENT CLEARING WILL TAKE PLACE.
229 PM CST THU NOV 5 2015 QUIET DAY SO FAR ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH THAT WILL IMPACT THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE KNOCKING ON THE DOOR IN THE MEMPHIS AREA AROUND MID MORNING THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON TIMEFRAME. THE COLD FRONT LOOKS TO STALL A BIT AS ANOTHER PLAINS TROUGH APPROACHES THE MS RIVER VALLEY REGION TO THE NORTH.
605 AM EDT WED MAY 20 2015 COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD FIRM ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES THROUGH TONIGHT. POLAR RIDGE ANCHORED FM THE CNTRL PLAINS EWD INTO THE WRN OH VALLEY XPCD TO DOMINATE THIS PD WHILE PLAINS SW TROUGH SHEARS EWD AND WKNS TDA. GIVEN THE BREATH AND EXTENT OF DRYNESS NOTED WITHIN LL RIDGE AXIS AND DECAYING UPR SPRT THIS AFTN SEE LTL REASON NOT TO REDUCE POPS FURTHER. SLOWLY EXITING EASTERN CANADA HEIGHT ANOMALY AND DIGGING SOUTHWEST CONUS TROUGH WILL LEAD TO GRADUAL MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING IN OUR REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
322 AM EDT WED MAY 20 2015 UNDER A CLEAR SKY WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA /PARTICULARLY W/ AND PW VALUES AROUND 0. THE MORE STEADY NW FLOW BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND EXITING LOW OVER E CENTRAL QUEBEC HAS KEPT TEMPS FROM FALLING AS DRAMATICALLY OVER FAR E UPPER MI. WITH AREAS INLAND REACHING THE LOW TO MID 60S. WE WILL BE WATCHING FOR POTENTIAL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE E-W ORIENTED COLD FRONT STRETCHED ACROSS S ONTARIO /JUST N OF LAKE SUPERIOR/ AT 00Z THURSDAY SINK ACROSS THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA AND JUST INLAND FROM LAKE SUPERIOR AROUND 12Z THURSDAY. WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SFC /WITHIN A COUPLE THOUSAND FEET ABOVE THE SFC/ AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT WILL BE 20-25KTS. DUE TO THE AREA BEING BETWEEN AN UPPER TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA AND ANOTHER OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS.
420 AM EDT WED MAY 20 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
However, thick low clouds will linger through the day and keep most areas from getting any warmer than the lower 50s.
110 AM EDT WED MAY 20 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT WILL STALL JUST TO THE SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY AND THEN MOVE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ON THE FRONT ON THURSDAY AND PUSHES OFFSHORE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA THIS MORNING AND STALL OVER SC LATER TODAY. THE FRONT WILL THEN RETREAT NORTH IN ADVANCE OF AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL CROSS THE CAROLINAS ON THURSDAY. ILL-DEFINED COLD FRONT BISECTING CENTRAL NC FROM NE TO SW THIS MORNING WILL SETTLE INTO AND STALL OVER SC TODAY. THEY STILL DIFFER WITH REGARD TO THE DEGREE OF DESTABILIZATION AND HOW FAR NORTH THE PRECEDING WARM FRONT WILL RETREAT IN ADVANCE OF THE LOW. IN CONJUNCTION WITH STRENGTHENING MID LEVEL FLOW AT THE BASE OF TROUGH AMPLIFICATION ALOFT OVER THE GREAT LAKES. IT APPEARS THAT INITIALLY ELEVATED CONVECTION DURING THE MORNING HOURS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY SURFACE-BASED WITH DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION AND THE RETREAT OF THE WARM FRONT. UNTIL A COLD FRONT TRAILING THE SFC WAVE SETTLES SOUTH OVERNIGHT.
218 AM EDT WED MAY 20 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN TODAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. /ISSUED 419 PM EDT TUE MAY 19 2015/ THE BROAD SYNOPTIC FEATURES ACROSS THE REGION INCLUDE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GULF AND ATLANTIC WATERS OFF CENTRAL FLORIDA. TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND JUST NORTH OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA LATER ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW ADDITIONAL MOISTURE TO ENTER SOUTH FLORIDA AND WITH THE LINGERING WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THE LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES INCREASING INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION. GUIDANCE INDICATES THE WEAK TROUGH IN THE UPPER LEVELS PERSISTING AND A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN THE DAILY SEA BREEZES.
AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES NORTHEAST INTO NEBRASKA. THIS SHOULD HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FREE FALLING INTO SUB-FREEZING RANGE WITH HIGH PRESSURE/LIGHT WINDS IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE. NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE LONG RANGE PATTERN WITH THE UPPER TROF DOMINATING THE WESTERN CONUS. INITIALLY WE WILL SEE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CWA. THE GFS/ECMWF BOTH DEPICT A PROLONGED PERIOD OF MOISTURE THANKS TO ONE OR TWO WAVES EJECTING OUT OF THE TROF BEFORE THE MAIN LOW MOVES THROUGH.
352 AM EDT WED MAY 20 2015 HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
413 AM EDT WED MAY 20 2015 A COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED EAST OF VERMONT. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND WILL DRIFT OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH A BROAD DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE NEW ENGLAND REGION AT THE SURFACE.
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S ARE CURRENTLY OBSERVED IN NORTH ALABAMA. WE'LL DEFINITELY SEE SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOP OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN COMPLEX OF STORMS THAT WILL BE OUT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL FINALLY BEGIN THE SOUTHWARD PUSH INTO WESTERN TENNESSEE AND NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI THIS EVENING.
240 AM MST WED MAY 20 2015 A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL AFFECT THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. BUT OVERALL DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE LOWER DESERTS. THIS WILL BRING CONTINUED COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
A DISTURBANCE MOVING EASTWARD INTO THE PLAINS WILL INTERACT WITH A SECOND DISTURBANCE DROPPING SOUTHWARD ALONG A TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. A WING OF WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE INVERTED TROUGH WILL PROVIDE THE LIFT FOR PRECIPITATION DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE BEST LIFT ARRIVING BY 18 UTC AND QUICKLY EXITING THE REGION BY 00 UTC. COOL EAST TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS WILL WORK AGAINST THIS LIFT AND KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE FROM SATURATING QUICKLY. LOCATIONS ALONG THE HIGHWAY 20 CORRIDOR MAY SEE LITTLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BY THE LOWER TO MID 50S WITH A RECORD COOL MAY POSSIBLE AT MLI. IN THE WAKE OF WEDNESDAYS SYSTEM COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND CLEAR THE CLOUDS OUT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH OVERNIGHT.
411 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015 THE 07Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED A CLOSED LOW OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA. THE BEST POTENTIAL VORTICITY IS LOCATED OVER THE SANDHILLS WHICH PROVIDES SOME UPPER SUPPORT FOR AN INVERTED TROUGH ACROSS OVER THE MISSOURI VALLEY. AS THE INVERTED TROUGH MOVES OUT OF THE MISSOURI VALLEY. KEEPING THOSE AREAS A FEW DEGREES COOLER.
THE LOW CLOUDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A 850MB COOL POOL ALOFT WHICH IS FCST TO MODERATE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. BREEZY AND NOTICEABLY COOLER WILL DESCRIBE THE WX TODAY QUITE WELL WITH HIGHS RUNNING 15 TO 20 DEGREES LOWER THAN YESTERDAY. EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGE SCALE UPPER TROUGH ANCHORING THE NORTHEASTERN SECTOR OF THE CONTINENT. AS A RESULT HAVE INCREASED POPS INTO THE LOW-MID CHC RANGE FOR THE SOUTH-CENTRAL ZONES WITH THE HIGHEST POPS ALONG THE MD BORDER.
327 AM PDT WED MAY 20 2015 A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WEST COAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK AND LINGER INTO THE WEEKEND.
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ALONG WITH A SLOW SOUTHWARD MOVING COLD FRONT WILL PROVIDE FOR A BETTER OPPORTUNITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH A QUICKLY PROGRESSING SOUTHERN STREAM IMPULSE WAS LOCATED ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE QUICKLY NORTH AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PROGRESSES EAST NORTHEAST. LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPH CURVATURE IS MOST PRONOUNCED NEAR THE LOW CENTER/REMNANT MCV AND WOULD BE MOST SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. BUT WHETHER OR NOT THE AREAS ALONG THE TRACK OF THE LOW CAN DESTABILIZE REMAINS TO BE SEEN. LOW LEVEL WINDS BECOME PROGRESSIVELY MORE VEERED SOUTH OF THE LOW PRESSURE. VERY COOL LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT AS A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SETTLES INTO THE MID SOUTH AND NEAR-IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING IS REALIZED. LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE WITH UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S SOUTH.
107 AM EDT WED MAY 20 2015 A COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED EAST OF VERMONT. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND WILL DRIFT OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH A BROAD DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE NEW ENGLAND REGION AT THE SURFACE.
THE LOW CLOUDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A 850MB COOL POOL ALOFT WHICH IS FCST TO MODERATE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. BREEZY AND NOTICEABLY COOLER WILL DESCRIBE TODAY QUITE WELL WITH HIGHS RUNNING 15 TO 20 DEGREES LOWER THAN YESTERDAY. AS A RESULT HAVE INCREASED POPS INTO THE LOW-MID CHC RANGE FOR THE SOUTH-CENTRAL ZONES WITH THE HIGHEST POPS ALONG THE MD BORDER.
MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON PRODUCING LIGHT QPF ACROSS THE SOUTH ESPECIALLY THE SOUTHEAST RIDGES.
447 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015 UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT BROUGHT US OUR WEATHER YESTERDAY CURRENTLY OVER NE/SD. A COLD FRONT IS DRAPED OVER THE CENTRAL TEXAS PANHANDLE AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SINKING SOUTHWARD. PATCHY DRIZZLE AND FOG WILL PERSIST THROUGH MID-MORNING AND WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE REMAINING IN THE LOWER LEVELS. A WEAK RIDGE IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND THE FIRST PART OF THURSDAY.
TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT 08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE DAKOTAS. WATER VAPOUR LOOP HAD UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER NORTH CENTRAL NE.
202 AM EDT WED MAY 20 2015 COOLER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND TOMORROW BEHIND A COLD FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A STRETCH OF FAIR BUT COOL WEATHER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. A DRY DAY IS EXPECTED TOMORROW AS THE REGION WILL LIE BETWEEN A COLD FRONT OVER THE SOUTHEAST COASTLINE. AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT OVER SOUTHERN CANADA. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING EASTWARD FROM THE PLAINS BETWEEN THESE TWO FRONTAL SYSTEMS WILL BRING MODEST WESTERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH. WHILE ELSEWHERE LOWS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S. THURSDAY CONTINUES TO LOOK DRY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGED ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES. STILL LOOKS LIKE A COOLER THAN NORMAL DAY WITH MOST HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.
1241 AM CDT Wed May 20 2015 A cold front can currently be seen on radar just N of LBB moving S. /ISSUED 248 PM CDT Tue May 19 2015/ The active weather pattern will continue through the remainder of the week under persistent SW flow aloft thanks to continued upper troughing over the western ConUS. things should be fairly quiet through early afternoon as a cold front sinks south through the TX Panhandle.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE FLORIDA/GEORGIA BORDER. AND AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN GEORGIA.
400 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015 NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE EAST ACROSS THE RED RIVER COUNTIES THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AS A COLD FRONT SLIDES SLOWLY SOUTH FROM OKLAHOMA.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY. COURTESY OF INCOMING SFC RIDGING FROM THE OH VLY.
MEANWHILE SFC/H8 LOW PRESSURE WILL BE TRACKING SOUTH OF WISCONSIN. AS THE LOW TO THE SOUTH MOVES OFF AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN.
COOLER THAN NORMAL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK.
201 AM EDT WED MAY 20 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT AND WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION INTO WEDNESDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA THIS MORNING AND STALL OVER SC LATER TODAY. THE FRONT WILL THEN RETREAT NORTH IN ADVANCE OF AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL CROSS THE CAROLINAS ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL LIMIT CONVECTION ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT PASSAGE THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS SC ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR TO MOVE INTO OUR AREA FROM THE NW. A SHORT WAVE OVER THE MISS VALLEY WILL MOVE EAST AND INDUCE A LOW PRESSURE WAVE ALONG THE OLD BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH.
357 AM EDT WED MAY 20 2015 HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE REGION WILL BE PUSHED ASIDE AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE TENNESSEE VALLEY MOVES EAST. THE AXIS OF THE HIGH WILL THEN DIP SOUTH INTO THE REGION ON THURSDAY.
A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL AFFECT THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. BUT OVERALL DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE LOWER DESERTS. THIS WILL BRING CONTINUED COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
/ISSUED 749 PM EDT TUE MAY 19 2015/ EXPECTED COLD FRONT IS NOW ACROSS NW GA AND EXPECTED TO SAG SOUTHWARD ACROSS NORTH GA AND STALL SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN REACHES OF THE FORECAST AREA LATER TONIGHT. /39 THE COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE CWA WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL GA TONIGHT AND THEN HANG AROUND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN GA WEDNESDAY.
415 AM EDT WED MAY 20 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE EAST TODAY. FOLLOWED BY AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL AFFECT THE REGION THURSDAY.
AS OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES DIP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S. AS A BLOCKING PATTERN.
353 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015 THE NOW NEARLY FLATTENED UPPER RIDGE THAT PREVAILED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS FOR SEVERAL DAYS WILL BE SUPPRESSED INTO NONEXISTENCE AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. THIS WILL TO LEAD SOMEWHAT COOLER.
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW DRIVING THIS PATTERN IS OVER THE GREAT BASIN WHICH IS CREATING THIS EASTERLY FLOW BACK INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THIS LOW WILL DEPART TO THE EAST ON WEDNESDAY BUT THE OVERALL UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS PARKED ALONG THE WEST COAST.
TODAY AND TONIGHT SURFACE RIDGING TUCKED BENEATH WEAKLY CONFLUENT WEST-NORTHWEST MID LEVEL FLOW WILL SUSTAIN A DEEP LAYERED DRY/STABLE PROFILE THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT PERIOD. THIS WILL TEMPER SLIGHTLY A GENERAL MODERATION OF THE EXISTING COOLER AIR MASS NOW IN PLACE.
652 AM EDT WED MAY 20 2015 HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE REGION WILL BE PUSHED ASIDE AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE TENNESSEE VALLEY MOVES EAST. THE AXIS OF THE HIGH WILL THEN DIP SOUTH INTO THE REGION ON THURSDAY.
COLD FRONT HAS SWEPT THROUGH THE AREA WITH ELEVATED CONVECTION IN ITS WAKE ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS. THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA BY TOMORROW MORNING. LOW AMPLITUDE UA RIDGING PROGRESSING ACROSS THE REGION WILL FILTER IN DRIER AIR ALOFT.
342 AM MDT WED MAY 20 2015 HEIGHTS WILL BE ON THE RISE TODAY AS THE OLD UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT OUT INTO THE PLAINS. CONVECTIVE TEMPS WILL BE REALIZED OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND THIS WILL WORK ON LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO INCREASE COVERAGE OF THE MORNING SHOWERS. ALTHOUGH THE FOCUS WILL BE OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY WITH WEAK STEERING FLOW FAILING TO DRIVE THEM OFF THE HILLS AND OVER THE VALLEYS. THE DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS THE RIDGE AXIS SLIDES EAST OF THE DIVIDE. MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE THAT MOISTURE WILL BE STREAMING UP FROM THE SUBTROPICS THANKS TO THE LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST AND HIGH OFF THE GULF COAST.
WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH ALMOST THE ENTIRE REGION BACK INTO THE 60S FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS FAIRLY TRANQUIL UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER AND NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL WIND COMPONENT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES CONFINED TO THE LOW TO MID 50S THIS AFTERNOON. A SUBTLE INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL WARMTH COMBINED WITH SUNSHINE AND WESTERLY WIND COMPONENT SUGGEST 10 TO 15 DEGREES WARMER HIGHS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WE THEN LOOK WEST AS UPPER LOW/TROUGH SETTLING INTO THE SOUTHWEST BEGINS TO EJECT ENERGY INTO THE PLAINS.
STRONG WEST COAST REX BLOCK CONTINUES WITH A CUT-OFF LOW OVER THE WESTERN U. AND AN U/L RIDGE OVER WESTERN CANADA. SPLIT FLOW IS OCCURRING AROUND THE BLOCK WITH SOUTHERN STREAM FLOW EXITING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH NEAR BAJA CA. THIS WILL COME IN PHASE WITH A SOUTHERN STREAM S/W WITH THE U/L TROUGH TEMPORARILY EXTENDING SOUTH OVER FLORIDA. AND AROUND 70 TO THE LOWER 70S ELSEWHERE.
CONVECTION IS EXITING SULLIVAN COUNTY AT THIS TIME, AND UNLESS A CELL SUDDENLY POPS UP AT THE SOUTHWESTERN TAIL OF THE COLD FRONT IN THE NEXT HOUR, PRECIPITATION WILL BE FINISHED FOR THE ENTIRE FA. RAPID DRYING AND COOLING IS TAKING PLACE, WITH SEVERAL METARS INDICATING TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S WEST OF THE COLD FRONT.
418 AM EDT WED MAY 20 2015 03Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS FRONT HAS MOVED SOUTH OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BROADLY CENTERED ACROSS THE UPPER PLAINS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS THE RIDGING THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE HAS FLATTENED WITH MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW IN THE WAKE. MUCH DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS PREVAIL BEHIND THE FRONT THAT USHERED IN NORTHERLY FLOW. SO SEEING A MORE SUBTLE RIDGE/VALLEY SPLIT THIS MORNING. GIVEN THIS TREND DID COME UP SOME WITH REGARDS TO POPS BUT STAYED IN THE HIGH RANGE OF CHANCE.
348 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015 INVERTED TROUGH WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO WESTERN IOWA EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS SETS THE STAGE FOR A RATHER COOL DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S ACROSS THE REGION. THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTH THIS AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES EAST.
354 AM EDT WED MAY 20 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TODAY IN THE WAKE OF YESTERDAY'S COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER AND HUMIDITY WILL BE LOWER. A LOW PRESSURE PASSING JUST TO THE SOUTH WILL PROVIDE A BIT OF RAIN TO THE AREA ON THURSDAY.
240 AM EDT WED MAY 20 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. THE FRONT WILL STALL JUST TO THE SOUTH TODAY AND THEN MOVE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ON THE FRONT ON THURSDAY AND PUSHES OFFSHORE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.
All the models indicate at least scattered thunderstorms developing, with the high res HRRR the most aggressive.