Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
The trough that brought us breezy winds the last few days is pushing off to the east helping to bring impactful winter weather east of the Rockies. This short wave will continue to push south and upper level ridging will build in for Friday and the weekend.
6 pm temperatures were warmer across the board than they were 24 hours ago and should end up a little bit warmer in most areas in the morning as well. IR Satellite imagery shows a low pressure system sliding south along the coast this evening.
427 PM MST Thu Feb 3 2022 Current surface analysis has high pressure moving slowly across the Midwest with the PV anomaly following it eastward, putting the region in subsidence on the backside of the feature. Should start to see temperatures recover pretty quickly into tomorrow with daytime highs in the low 30s and 40s east of the Laramie Range and colder off to the west.
Snow continues to occur northwest of the low across portions of the eastern Ozarks. This area of light snow and the low will continue to slowly move off to the east. The main upper level trough with this system is currently moving in the Plains this afternoon. The trough will continue to move east towards the area tonight. Lows tonight will drop into the lower single digits to the lower teens. The upper level trough will move east through the area on Friday.
712 PM EST Thu Feb 3 2022 Early evening water vapor satellite imagery is showing a relatively dry airmass remaining over the Florida Peninsula associated with Atlantic ridging, while an approaching cold front slowly advances through the western Gulf of Mexico. With southerly/southeasterly flow over the Gulf waters on the edge of this ridge, increasing dew points will pass over the relatively cooler shelf waters, and sea fog is expected to develop over the Gulf overnight.
Temperatures are expected to remain below freezing today with highs only in the teens to low 20s. The axis of the upper trough associated with yesterday's weather is expected to move across the area tonight. The Tri-State area will be on the front end of an Upper ridge moving over the Western CONUS. Temperatures are expected to be warmer in the mid 30s to low 40s; however, lingering snowpack could keep temperatures cooler.
Afterwards, Arctic high pressure builds in for the weekend and provides very cold temperatures. Also, it has taken awhile for our far southeast to drop below freezing. Cold air continues to funnel in on Friday and Friday night as Arctic high pressure gradually builds in.
523 PM CST Thu Feb 3 2022 1040 mb arctic high pressure centered over the Northwest Territories of Canada this afternoon will move swiftly southeast tonight and be centered over wrn MN Friday afternoon. A backdoor cold front will drop through ncntl Nebraska Friday morning. The model blend forecast is 1 to 3 degrees warmer than the guidance blend which often is too cool during warm air advection events.
The clouds will keep temperatures from falling a great deal more, but persistent north winds and overnight lows in the low teens will mean that any slush on area roads will freeze into ice overnight. Temperatures will climb to near freezing Friday afternoon and clouds will begin to clear from west to east during the afternoon hours. Similar to tonight though, temperatures will again fall to between 10-15 degrees Friday night, so any melt water will refreeze into ice on roads/bridges.
537 PM CST Thu Feb 3 2022 (This evening through Friday) A vort max/PV anomaly associated with a mid/upper-level trough across the eastern Texas panhandle (east of Amarillo) is progged to move eastward near I-40. The highest probabilities/snowfall amounts are forecast near I-40 (along the track of the vort max). As a result--temperatures should remain below freezing for nearly the entire area. The exception might be parts of west central Oklahoma where snowfall was minimal--temperatures could very briefly warm above freezing.
Northwest flow over the area has weakened and will turn zonal Friday as a short wave rides over a strong offshore long wave ridge.
Cold/dry advection in the low levels through the morning will work against more substantial amounts, especially toward mid- late morning and onward. At least some mid clouds will remain until trough axis passes early evening. It is possible that brief snow flurries may be observed with forcing and ribbon of deeper moisture right along the trough axis this evening, but this will be non-measurable. Significant snow pack and continued northwesterly flow and cold advection will limit warming today and we are on the low end of model guidance for high temperatures.
IFR/LIFR conditions will likely continue well into Friday morning, with freezing rain/light snow affecting TAF sites at times through 12z.
(Today through Thursday) Issued at 251 AM EST FRI FEB 4 2022 Upper air pattern consists of a split flow 500 mb trough over the central U. These two branches merge over the lower Great Lakes region tonight.
1035 PM MST Thu Feb 3 2022 Upper ridging is building over the west coast, as the trough axis progresses through the central CONUS.
A couple periods of light snow will continue in southeast IL overnight before high pressure finally builds far enough southeast to end it completely. As high pressure builds into the region and winds become nearly calm, excellent radiational cooling conditions will develop over the fresh snow cover and allow low temperatures Friday night to drop below zero everywhere across central and southeast Illinois. Once the high shifts eastward into the Ohio River Valley, southerly return flow will bring a warming trend for the upcoming weekend.
1040 PM EST Thu Feb 3 2022 Currently - A strong ridge extending southwestward across Florida and into the Gulf of Mexico is responsible for moderate to fresh east to southeasterly breezes across the Keys and surrounding waters late this evening. Deep layered ridge has matured across our area and stable conditions prevail. This evenings sounding indicated both warming and falling moisture levels through the lower level. Short Term Update - The ridge across Florida will slip a bit further east through the overnight period. A ridge to our north will shift slightly eastward through the overnight period. Relatively cooler gulf and bay side waters, along with their proximity to the ridge axis, both appear to result in lower winds on those waters.
Late Friday a short wave trough will come in from the northwest with a chance of snow showers in the northern mountains Friday night, and cooling aloft which will vent stagnant air below.
An upper trof moving across the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes tonight will push a cold front across the lower Missouri Valley which will briefly backdoor far eastern Kansas.
The cold front responsible for this mess will continue to move southeast of the region this morning. Widespread snow showers will have cleared to the east, however, an approaching trough axis with very cold 850mb air in the dendritic growth zone (DGZ) moving from the Great Lakes into the Upper Ohio Valley may result in shallow unorganized and light snow showers through the night, particularly in the ridges where upsloping will contribute to the lift needed to squeeze out some dendrites. The weekend looks dry but with gradual temperature moderation as warm advctn ensues ahead of a nrn Plains trough. The upcoming work week looks seasonable as broad longwave troughing becomes established across the eastern half of the CONUS. Restrictions are psbl again Fri night/Sat with an upr trough.
130 AM MST Fri Feb 4 2022 The short term period features the axis of the trough currently moving over the Kansas. A Wind Chill Advisory has been issued for the areas that received the higher amounts of snowfall from yesterday(Yuma, Kit Carson, Cheyenne (CO), Cheyenne (KS), Sherman, Wallace, Greeley, Wichita. The one variable that could throw a wrench into the advisory is if the wind is a bit stronger which would help better mix the warmer temperatures down from an inversion aloft. Friday, temperatures will be roughly 20 degrees warmer than today with afternoon highs in the mid 40s to low 30s (cooler amounts of the snowpack). A ridge over the western CONUS will lead to mainly clear skies throughout the day.
1025 PM MST Thu Feb 3 2022 Current surface analysis has high pressure moving slowly across the Midwest with the PV anomaly following it eastward, putting the region in subsidence on the backside of the feature. Should start to see temperatures recover pretty quickly into tomorrow with daytime highs in the low 30s and 40s east of the Laramie Range and colder off to the west.
Updated suite of forecast products to mention patchy freezing fog formation. IFR/LIFR conditions will likely continue well into Friday morning, with freezing rain/light snow affecting TAF sites at times through 12z.
Latest surface map shows that temperatures now range from the upper 20s northwest to the lower 30s Plateau. 850 mb freezing line just now moving into our northwestern counties. thus, any precip to the southeast of this line will likely remain as freezing rain and freezing drizzle. For the forecast today, will likely keep the winter weather advisory going across the north and central areas through 6 am, given the chance of some light precip and slick road conditions given the residual moisture and sub freezing temps. Will include a pre first period group but note that a chance of some freezing drizzle and perhaps some snow flurries north will persist until mid morning or so. Can always issue a freezing drizzle advisory if the precip becomes wide spread enough.
1019 PM MST Thu Feb 3 2022 Upper ridging is building over the west coast, as the trough axis progresses through the central CONUS.
The wind shift to the west to northwest is not expected for a few more hours as cold front makes it to the Appalachians. Aviation conditions are changing again as cold front moves into SE TN.
With the approach of the H7 trof axis, there should be a few hour window from late evening into the early morning for some accumulating snow, with the RAP/HRRR suggesting around an inch (perhaps up to 2") generally along and south of the I-44 corridor.
1112 PM CST Thu Feb 3 2022 1040 mb arctic high pressure centered over the Northwest Territories of Canada this afternoon will move swiftly southeast tonight and be centered over wrn MN Friday afternoon. A backdoor cold front will drop through ncntl Nebraska Friday morning. The model blend forecast is 1 to 3 degrees warmer than the guidance blend which often is too cool during warm air advection events.
Temperatures in the lower and mid levels along and west of I-29 quickly warm through the dendritic layer and without any convective help precipitation is not expected.
These areas will likely struggle to reach the freezing mark even with full sunshine today.
1103 PM CST Thu Feb 3 2022 (This evening through Friday) A vort max/PV anomaly associated with a mid/upper-level trough across the eastern Texas panhandle (east of Amarillo) is progged to move eastward near I-40. The highest probabilities/snowfall amounts are forecast near I-40 (along the track of the vort max). As a result--temperatures should remain below freezing for nearly the entire area. The exception might be parts of west central Oklahoma where snowfall was minimal--temperatures could very briefly warm above freezing.
There is no doubt that the lack of snow is actually keeping the area warmer than what some guidance had last week.
With the approach of the H7 trof axis, there should be a few hour window from late evening into the early morning for some accumulating snow, with the RAP/HRRR suggesting around an inch (perhaps up to 2") generally along and south of the I-44 corridor. (06Z TAFS) Periods of MVFR conditions along with light snow will continue to push from west to east across the CWA through the overnight hours as a mid level trof axis moves across the region. In the wake of the trof axis.
The cold front, responsible for this mess, will continue to move southeast of the region this morning. Widespread snow showers will have cleared to the east, however, an approaching trough axis with very cold 850mb air in the dendritic growth zone (DGZ) moving from the Great Lakes into the Upper Ohio Valley may result in shallow unorganized and light snow showers through the night, particularly in the ridges where upsloping will contribute to the lift needed to squeeze out some dendrites. The weekend looks dry but with gradual temperature moderation as warm advctn ensues ahead of a nrn Plains trough. The upcoming work week looks seasonable as broad longwave troughing becomes established across the eastern half of the CONUS. Restrictions are psbl again Fri night/Sat with an upr trough.
Scattered light flurries and snow showers will continue across the eastern areas until later tonight when the low level winds become more west to southwest. The low clouds may make it to KMSN and KJVL before the low level winds turn.
1049 PM CST Thu Feb 3 2022 (This evening through Friday) This afternoon, as an upper trough over New Mexico approaches, we'll see some occasional snow flurries, but no additional accumulation is expected. So western areas will be coldest (10 degrees or lower), while eastern areas will be several degrees warmer (10 to 15 degrees). In the morning, road conditions will remain hazardous with icy conditions in place from the re-freezing mentioned earlier. For the rest of Friday, any lingering cloud cover will clear out, allowing sunshine to return as the main trough axis finally starts to move eastward. Additional sunshine and warmer temperatures will allow more melting to occur tomorrow afternoon.
In other areas where moisture is held below the DGZ, freezing drizzle will be possible. Elizabethtown around 3 tenths with Bowling Green being near the zero line, but southern Kentucky could still pick up a few hundreths of freezing rain. High temperatures today are expected to remain below freezing with mid 20s to low 30s throughout the CWA. Tonight, a clipper system located with the aforementioned upper trough axis will move through the region. Still, as winds shift towards the northwest, temperatures are expected to drop to near zero in Jasper, Indiana with warmer temperatures to the southeast, with mid teens in the Lake Cumberland area.
IFR to LIFR ceilings continue as showers and thunderstorms, associated with a cold front, push eastwards. As the cold front passes, winds will quickly shift from southwesterly to northwesterly.
427 AM MST Fri Feb 4 2022 Friday will be mostly clear beneath weak ridging and a dry, northerly to northwesterly flow aloft. Temperatures will start to warm, with highs back into the 30s across the plains and teens and 20s in the high country.
An upper trof moving across the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes tonight will push a cold front across the lower Missouri Valley which will briefly backdoor far eastern Kansas. A warmer and brisk south-southwesterly flow will develop across the entire area by Saturday afternoon, though locales generally along and east of the Kansas turnpike will continue to lag over the lingering snow cover.
Drying within weakening arctic ridge continues to undercut wrn flank of decaying snow shield association with shearing newd out of OK ahead of impressive nrn stream wave digging quickly sewd across the Dakotas. Veering low level flow along with good lake based moisture flux within thermal trough along with seeding aloft should promote a healthy lake band within strongly convergent low level flow and of which may warrant headlines late tonight/Sat morning.
This disturbance will help drive a surface cold front across central Illinois this evening, with most short term guidance having the front crossing the Illinois River Valley by 00z/6pm. A quick burst of snow cannot be ruled out early this evening ahead of the cold front. Given the high snow-to-liquid ratios (SLRs) of about 18:1, this could easily produce a quick dusting atop an already healthy snowpack. Again, the lower troposphere will need to overcome dry air, but model soundings are hinting that seeder-feeder processes will help parcels achieve adequate top-down saturation amidst strong upward omega and a deepening DGZ. Given the fresh snowpack in place, we favored the cooler side of guidance, but did not select a Wind Chill Advisory.
Discussion Snow on the ground and surface ridging moving through the region, will help temperatures dip down into the single digits to near zero degrees this morning. High pressure remains over the area today, making for sunny skies with high temperatures in the mid 20s to low 30s. It looks like we will struggle to reach freezing today, but the best chance is along the MO/KS border. Tomorrow, winds will shift to the south, allowing for warmer air to move into the region. Highs will range from the low 30s to low 40s. Highs will be warmer, but winds will be stronger too. For the rest of the period numerous upper level troughs will move through the region with associated cold fronts at the surface. Surface ridging is moving over the area today, keeping conditions VFR.
457 AM EST Fri Feb 4 2022 A large anticyclone centered over the western North Atlantic stretches southwest across Florida. Temperatures are in the lower to mid 70s with dewpoints in the upper 60s. A cold front will move through Florida today and tonight, then stall out very near South Florida Saturday morning. Although not an ideal pattern, areas of sea fog are possible Saturday across the Gulf waters with SSTs in the lower to mid 60s, mainly west of Cape Sable and the Ten Thousand Islands.
500 AM MST Fri Feb 4 2022 Aviation Section Updated Southwesterly winds will develop over the region today, allowing for warmer temperatures to gradually move into the region.
Arctic high pressure will then build into our region tonight into Saturday.
The warm front will continue east this evening which will result in rising temperatures and gusty west wind developing. It will be windy and warmer with gusty west winds continuing but 850 mb winds diminish to 30-35 knots which will possibility of high winds unlikely.
Temperatures in the lower and mid levels along and west of I-29 quickly warm through the dendritic layer and without any convective help precipitation is not expected. While the dendritic layer and saturation within it lingers longer over southwest MN tonight into Saturday morning the low levels remain very dry so snow will be hard to come by. Still planning on highs near 40 over the snow cover in southwest MN to the lower to possibly mid 50s around the James and Missouri River Valleys. Initially parts of northwest IA could see some wind gusts near 40 mph on Saturday morning as the trough approaches but a fairly strong inversion may keep the strongest winds aloft.
This is where stratus has developed in the wake of the trough which is keeping the temperatures much warmer at those locations. Elsewhere will be mostly sunny, but the low level inversions and lingering cold air will continue to keep temperatures about 10 degrees below normal on average across the forecast area. The next trough will clip northern portions of the area tonight. Temperatures will slightly modify tomorrow, but the wave clipping us will reintroduce a cooler air mass once again. Tomorrow night another weak trough clips the northeast half of the forecast area bringing more cloudiness and light snow.
A thermal trough will redevelop Saturday, producing another round of gusty north winds and steep seas.
High pressure aloft will lead to a return of quiet and dry winter weather through the weekend and beyond. In addition to the low clouds some high clouds are also drifting over the region in association with a weak short wave moving across the anomalously strong ridge of high pressure. Other than the weak waves of depression moving over the ridge. The weekend set- up will promote warmer afternoon temperatures, especially inland.
401 AM MST Fri Feb 4 2022 Southwesterly winds will develop over the region today, allowing for warmer temperatures to gradually move into the region.
644 AM EST Fri Feb 4 2022 Low pressure along the Virginia/West Virginia border this morning will push an intense cold front through the area today, bringing an end to the widespread rain. At 4AM very sharp cold front had entered western Greenbrier County, and was just east of Flat Top and Richlands. Still anticipate a transition zone between the rain and snow that will have mainly freezing rain. Bufkit forecast soundings support freezing rain once surface temperatures drop below freezing since there will still be a warm layer around 800MB. By the time temperatures aloft cool closer to freezing, there is much more dry air aloft and little dendritic growth in the cloud that would support sleet or snow. Will start to see clearing, especially east of the Blue Ridge due to downsloping after midnight.
A much warmer airmass will spread east across the region with afternoon highs forecast in the 40s and low 50s.
Winds in the Livingston vicinity can then be expected to gust above 60 mph from this morning through Saturday morning, with peaks winds gusting in the low 70s possible tonight. There are still hints of mountain wave activity over the Beartooths that guidance is picking up on, but soundings indicate that any wind speeds will be on the lower end of mountain wave potential. What will inhibit this high wind potential is that these factors align Friday night, where surface temperatures look to fall enough to shut off mixing.
Meanwhile, upper ridging is building across the western CONUS. Weak upper ridging will develop across the region through tonight, then the next upper wave will push through Saturday.
Temperatures are currently running an average of 10 degrees warmer than 24-hours ago, with some elevations above 4000 feet almost 20 to 30 degrees warmer. After Saturday, the high pressure ridge will shift further east and flatten out from pressure exerted from yet another Northern Pacific system.
A cold front will sweep across the region today, bringing another round of rain to the lowlands of Western Washington and snow to the mountains. High pressure will then build back into the region over the weekend for drier and warmer conditions.
432 AM CST Fri Feb 4 2022 Current surface analysis places frontal boundary stretching from eastern North Dakota into central South Dakota, while high pressure drops through Saskatchewan. Upper level analysis places trough dropping through the upper midwest nudging into the plains, while ridge remains over the Pacific Northwest, with a staunch short wave noted offshore.
Can't rule out a few patches of drizzle through the remainder of the predawn hours underneath these low clouds and for this reason will maintain the SPS for patchy freezing drizzle across NW Alabama and S. However, temperatures will be a few degrees warmer in the low to mid 40s thanks to the abundant sunshine.
This back edge of measurable rainfall was doing its best to out run the freezing line and thus minimizing the potential for any impacts for freezing rain this morning. This high will shift slowly east through tonight and maintain a northerly wind that will continue to bring cold dry air into our CWA. This will hold high temperatures today to the 30s in the west including highs near freezing in our northwest most zones. Elsewhere highs will be in the low to mid 40s. At the beginning of the period, a strong 500mb trough that pushed a cold front through our region will have lifted northeast into the Atlantic, while a dominate ridge persists over the west coast.
Discussion Snow on the ground and surface ridging moving through the region, will help temperatures dip down into the single digits to near zero degrees this morning. High pressure remains over the area today, making for sunny skies with high temperatures in the mid 20s to low 30s. It looks like we will struggle to reach freezing today, but the best chance is along the MO/KS border. Tomorrow, winds will shift to the south, allowing for warmer air to move into the region. Highs will range from the low 30s to low 40s. Highs will be warmer, but winds will be stronger too. For the rest of the period numerous upper level troughs will move through the region with associated cold fronts at the surface.