Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
345 PM CST Tue Feb 24 2015 Main concern is with the amount of snow tonight and the exact track of the compact and potent upper low. It is possible that the current Winter Weather Advisory may need to be extended about a row of counties to the south which would include San Angelo if the track of the low digs a little more. Went with rain/snow for San Angelo to San Saba with about a half inch but this is the area to be watched that may need to be upgraded if the upper low shifts a little further south.
320 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015 STRONG UPPER LOW. ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT PRIMARILY ACROSS NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
338 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015 SHORT RANGE FORECAST MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT WILL BRING WINTRY WEATHER TO NORTH MS. WHICH COULD WARM A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE AFTERNOON.
247 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015 THE UPPER LOW OVER AZ THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST AND BECOMES A WAVE THAT MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. WEDNESDAY WILL BE WARMER WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S AND 50S THEN A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF COLD TEMPERATURES.
MEDIUM LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST OF LAKE SUPERIOR AND DRAG ARCTIC FRONT THROUGH CNTRL/SRN WI. IN THE LOW LEVELS COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES WITH THE NORTHERLY FLOW.
1251 PM EST TUE FEB 24 2015 A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.
ANOTHER STRONG UPPER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT AND OVER THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN AS LIGHT RAIN MIXED WITH FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET THEN CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW WITH A REDUCTION IN VISIBILITIES AS THE SNOW INCREASES.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL TODAY BRINGING A DECREASE TO THE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON.
SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS OUR NEXT COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN ARIZONA WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS TEXAS LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. EXPECT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING AT THE SURFACE MAKING RAIN THE FAVORED PRECIPITATION TYPE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING ALOFT AND NEAR THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE FOR SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. THE QUESTION IS HOW SHALLOW THE ABOVE FREEZING LAYER AT THE SURFACE WILL BE. THE PRECIPITATION ENDS BY MID MORNING WEDNESDAY AS TROUGH AXIS MOVES EAST OF OUR AREA AND SUBSIDENCE TAKES HOLD.
FROM MID MORNING TO LATE AFTERNOON NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS DEVELOP AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING ARCTIC COLD FRONT. PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE A BIT AFTER 15Z FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AS SOME PRETTY GOOD MOISTURE IN THE 850-500MB LAYER MOVES THROUGH BEHIND THE TROUGH. SHOULD INITIALLY BE SOME LIGHT SNOW AT THE BEGINNING BUT AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE LOW TO UPPER 40S EAST OF THE CO/KS BORDER (MID 30S TO AROUND 40 IN FAR EASTERN COLORADO) LIGHT RAIN SHOULD BE THE DOMINANT PRECIP TYPE.
HOWEVER CONTINUED WARM AIR ADVECTION IN THE MID LEVELS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SLIGHTLY WARMER SURFACE TEMPERATURES. WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGHER TEMPERATURES TO THE WEST AND COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE NORTHEAST. A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING OR MIXED PRECIPITATION MAY OCCUR ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE FRONT OVER THE NEBRASKA SANDHILLS BUT NOT A REAL CLEAR SIGNAL AND HAVE LEFT OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW. THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW AN ADDITIONAL UPGLIDE AREA SUPPORTIVE OF SNOW ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN OFF TO OUR WEST.
THE NEXT SYSTEM IS A LOW PRESSURE OVER TX THAT WILL TRACK THROUGH THE GULF STATES AND BEGIN TO EFFECT THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION LATE ON WEDNESDAY. DUE TO THE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK. THE LOW BEGINS TO PULL IN SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIFT INTO FAR SOUTHERN AREAS. AT THIS TIME OF DAY SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABOVE FREEZING AND WHILE EXPECT PRECIP TO BE SNOW. MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING NORTH AND MORE AMPLIFIED WITH DAMPENING UPPER LOW AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST INTO THE TN VALLEY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY 232 PM EST TUE FEB 24 2015 ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST THIS EVENING. ANOTHER ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL SWING ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN MOUNTAINS.
320 PM EST TUE FEB 24 2015 WEAK COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM GRAZES THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ELSEWHERE THE SUNSHINE HAS TEMPERATURES NEARING FREEZING IN THE SW LOWLANDS THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
An upper trough over AZ will open, shear, and pss thru West Texas and Southeast New Mexico overnight, bringing a brief shot of precipitation all terminals. A scouring west wind behind the departing trough will scatter out skies to VFR by 15Z Wednesday. A cold front is expected to move into the area late this afternoon/early this evening with northerly winds behind it. There is also a slight chance of light freezing rain tonight for CNM and MAF. /ISSUED 417 AM CST Tue Feb 24 2015/ Upper closed low over AZ this morning will swing into NM later today and will pass across the area overnight.
336 PM EST TUE FEB 24 2015 WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS EAST OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
THE NEXT WX MAKER IS AN UPPER LOW NOW OVER THE SWRN US. AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST.
The high at Helena could be too warm but should westerly winds become a little stronger than forecast the forecast high could be reached. Confidence was not high enough for a cooler high to change the forecast at that location. VFR conditions will prevail through early this evening before conditions deteriorate as an upper-level weather system and surface cold front moves into the area.
1252 PM EST TUE FEB 24 2015 A MIX OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST PROVIDES COLD AIR AND MOISTURE. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN EARLY WEDNESDAY.
CLOUDS INCREASE ACROSS THE WEST CENTRAL ID MTNS THIS AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH. THE TROUGH WILL TRACK THROUGH WESTERN MT OVERNIGHT BRINGING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS TO MTNS NORTH AND EAST OF YELLOWPINE. NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASE BEHIND THE TROUGH ON WEDNESDAY AND WILL BECOME GUSTY IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SNAKE PLAIN.
THE UPPER TROUGH THEN REMAINS OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES FOR THE REST OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST AND AWAY FROM THE REGION TODAY BRINGING CLEARING SKIES AND WARMER TEMPERATURES.
A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY SITUATED ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. MEANWHILE A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND SLIDES ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA TONIGHT. ISENTROPIC PLOTS SHOW A PERIOD OF DECENT ASCENT IN THE WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING A VERY DRY LAYER IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE KABR/KATY SOUNDINGS. HIGH PRESSURE AND COLD AIR TAKE OVER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND EVENTUALLY DEGRADE INTO AN OPEN WAVE AS IT SLIDES EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT THEN INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TOMORROW. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TOMORROW SHIFTING WINDS TO MORE OF A NORTHERLY DIRECTION. HIGHS TOMORROW HAVE BEEN THE MAIN FORECASTING CHALLENGE DUE TO THE SPEED OF THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT, CLOUD COVERAGE, AND HOW MUCH SNOW WILL MELT THIS AFTERNOON. AS OF NOW HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S ACROSS FAR WESTERN KANSAS TO UPPER 40S ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS.
309 PM EST TUE FEB 24 2015 A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY. A LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY BRINGING YET ANOTHER ROUND OF ARCTIC AIR TO THE NORTH COUNTRY.
High pressure over the Northern Rockies will weaken this evening, as a storm system from Canada moves southward along the Continental Divide tonight.
233 PM EST TUE FEB 24 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. CLOUDS HAVE OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE REGION AHEAD OF ADVANCING COLD FRONT.
1127 AM CST Tue Feb 24 2015 Looks like temperatures will rise above freezing today for a change. Temperatures will warm well above freezing Wednesday ahead of the approaching clipper system.
A SHARP TROUGH PASSAGE THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING PRESENTS A NEW CHALLENGE UP NORTH. THIS TROUGH WILL QUICKLY PULL IN COLD MID-LEVEL AIR ATOP AN ALREADY NEAR FREEZING PROFILE. THIS LAYER SHOULD SATURATE UP AND FALL BACK TO BELOW FREEZING. THE NAM SOLUTION IS OF FAR THE GFS IS MUCH WARMER AND DRIER.
146 PM EST TUE FEB 24 2015 AREAS OF DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL LINGER INTO EARLY EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST LIFTS NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN WEDNESDAY.
116 PM EST TUE FEB 24 2015 SPOTTY DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL LINGER THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST LIFTS NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN EARLY WEDNESDAY.
/ISSUED 253 AM CST TUE FEB 24 2015/ WE WILL HAVE A COUPLE OF DAYS TO THAW OUT BEFORE THE NEXT ARCTIC COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE PANHANDLES BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
1240 PM EST TUE FEB 24 2015 A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY. A LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY BRINGING YET ANOTHER ROUND OF ARCTIC AIR TO THE NORTH COUNTRY.
with areas of patchy freezing drizzle through 15Z. temperatures remain in the lower to mid 20s this morning. With surface observations indicating areas of light fog and the San Angelo radar indicating light precipitation, areas of freezing drizzle will continued to mentioned through mid morning. For today, went with the lower MET MOS highs, as the GFS model was not indicating the more extensive upper level cloudiness that extended along/north of the I-20 corridor that extended west across southern New Mexico.
SURFACE COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING. NORTHWEST WINDS REMAIN ROBUST WITH CONTINUED STRONG PRESSURE RISES AHEAD OF A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. MODELS STILL SUGGEST WE WILL REMAIN SATURATED ALOFT DURING MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE PRECIPITATION SO WILL KEEP FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET MENTION OUT OF THE FORECAST. THOUGH 00Z NAM/GFS BUFKIT DO NOT MENTION FREEZING RAIN. THE EXTENDED CONTINUES TO BE DOMINATED BY A BLOCKING RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND THE RESULTING DOWNSTREAM COLD UPPER LOW FROM CENTRAL AND EASTERN CANADA THOUGH THE SOUTHWEST US.
THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER ALOFT OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES MOVES SOUTH OF THE 4-CORNERS REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY MORNING. ONCE THIS LOW MOVES OUT OF THE AREA. THE OVERALL UPPER PATTERN DEEPENS WITH THE UPPER TROUGH PUSHING FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS AND ROCKIES WITH ADDITIONAL IMPULSES RIDING THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION. A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY WITH A POSSIBILITY MIXED PRECIPITATION DURING THE DAY. PRECIPITATION WILL TURN TO ALL SNOW WEDNESDAY EVENING AS A COLDER REGION OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SOUTH INTO THE HIGH PLAINS REGION.
The high at Helena could be too warm but should westerly winds become a little stronger than forecast the forecast high could be reached. Confidence was not high enough for a cooler high to change the forecast at that location. VFR conditions will prevail through early this evening before conditions deteriorate as a cold front moves into the area.
252 PM EST TUE FEB 24 2015 HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS GEORGIA AND OUT TO SEA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. BUT SOME CLD IS THE ONLY SENSIBLE WX THAT WL OCCUR W/ THIS - PERHAPS LGT SN IN THE HIGHLANDS BUT THAT IS LOW CHC. TEMPS WL BE QUITE A BIT WARMER THAN LAST NGT. BUT PERHAPS THAT IS NOT SAYING MUCH GIVEN TEMPS AS LOW AS -17 WERE SEEN IN THE HIGHLANDS AND -4 AT IAD. LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS IN THE HIGHLANDS. M20S IN THE HIGHLANDS.
A DEVELOPING UPPER LOW OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL EJECT EASTWARD AS AN OPEN WAVE TROUGH INTO WESTERN TEXAS TOMORROW MORNING. THE PASSAGE OF THIS SHARP 5H TROUGH WILL CLIP OUR FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES. THE SUITE ALL DEVELOP TWO MAIN SWATHS OF PRECIPITATION DURING THE 03Z THROUGH 15Z WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME OF THIS UPPER TROUGH AXIS POSITIONED JUST OFF TO OUR IMMEDIATE WEST. SUCH A BETTER CIRRUS ICE SEEDING AND A DRY MID-LAYER THAT WILL EVAPORATIVELY COOL/WET BULB TO AROUND OR SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING. THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BECOMES ONE OF WEAK TROUGHING AS AN UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN STAYS ATOP AN ENTRENCHED COOLER LOWER LEVEL NORTHEAST-EAST WIND REGIME. A COLD AND PARTIALLY CLOUDIER LATE WORK WEEK AS MORNINGS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S SLUGGISHLY WARM INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S (AT BEST).
The next cold front begins pushing into the nthrn portions of the FA late this aftn with some attendant mid/high clouds.
THERE ARE NO MAJOR WEATHER CONCERNS FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS AS WA/OR REMAIN ON THE FRONT SIDE OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE WARMER TONIGHT COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT. SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE AREA.
A WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING A RETURN TO ONSHORE FLOW TODAY.
MID LEVEL DECK OF STRATUS CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME SCT-BKN LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY PASSES US BY. LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE AREA IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD PRECIPITATION BY LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES JUST ABOVE FREEZING BY MID MORNING MAY ALLOW FOR A BIT OF A MIX PRECIP.
BUT THE NEXT SOUTHWARD PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR WILL RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA IN WAKE OF THE PASSING LOW BY LATE WEDNESDAY.
IF HIGH TEMPS STAY AROUND FREEZING. WENT WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES THAN GUIDANCE WITH MOST OF THE REGION STAYING AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING FOR HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY. COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT TO TRANSITION SLEET INTO SNOW.
1200 PM CST Tue Feb 24 2015 /18Z TAFS/ Visible satellite imagery shows gradual southward erosion to the low cloud field over our central and southern counties. High cloud coverage will increase by this evening, out ahead of the upper low and trough approaching from the southwestern states. with areas of patchy freezing drizzle through 15Z. temperatures remain in the lower to mid 20s this morning. With surface observations indicating areas of light fog and the San Angelo radar indicating light precipitation, areas of freezing drizzle will continued to mentioned through mid morning. For today, went with the lower MET MOS highs, as the GFS model was not indicating the more extensive upper level cloudiness that extended along/north of the I-20 corridor that extended west across southern New Mexico.
254 PM CST Tue Feb 24 2015 High pressure sitting over Texas today was allowing temperatures to be a bit warmer than the past few days.
LATEST AVAILABLE IR IMAGERY OVERLAID WITH MODEL STREAMLINE ANALYSIS AS OF 200 PM THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUES TO DEPICT LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGHING IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CONUS. AT THE SURFACE AND IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE LEVELS. THERE IS A STATIONARY FRONT ANALYZED FROM 1015 MB LOW PRESSURE EAST OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA TO ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA THENCE TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE FOG HAS DISSIPATED ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS NORTH OF THE LOWER AND MIDDLE KEYS WITH MORE DENSE FOG STILL OVER GMZ033-034. WITH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE ISLANDS IN THE UPPER 70S ACROSS THE UPPER KEYS AND MID 70S ACROSS THE LOWER AND MIDDLE KEYS.
303 PM EST TUE FEB 24 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH EASTERN CANADA TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT AND REINFORCE THE ARCTIC AIR ACROSS THE REGION.
A WEAK STATIONARY BOUNDARY/WARM FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA ACROSS EAST CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTH WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR FILTERING IN FROM THE NORTH.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER OUR REGION INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
1214 AM EDT SUN APR 5 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY DRY WEATHER TODAY. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSITION OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY UNDER ZONAL FLOW.
731 PM EDT SAT APR 4 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST SUNDAY NIGHT ALLOWING MOISTURE AND CHANCES OF SHOWERS TO RETURN TO THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BRING DRY AIR AND CLEARING SKIES THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. CLOSER TO THE RIDGE MAY SEE DE-COUPLING FROM BOUNDARY LAYER RESULTING IN LIGHTER WINDS. MODELS STILL INDICATE DEW POINTS WILL MODERATE TONIGHT/SOME MIXING AND GUIDANCE MINIMUM TEMPERATURES SUGGEST ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON THEN TRACK EASTWARD AS THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY CROSSES THEN CENTRAL PLAINS.
THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE QUICKLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING FROM NORTHERN TEXAS INTO NORTHWEST IOWA. ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT WILL HELP HOLD TEMPERATURES WARMER THAT THE PAST FEW THE EXTENDED CONTINUES TO LOOK ACTIVE PRIMARILY DUE TO A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT SETS UP THEN STALLS ACROSS IOWA FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS IN PLACE AND ALTHOUGH WE REMAIN IN A FAIRLY HIGH SHEAR ENVIRONMENT THE INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE IS LACKING AND AS SUCH THE THREAT OF PRECIP WILL BE MINIMAL.
WITH MUCH WETTER AND COOLER CONDITIONS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF EASTER SUNDAY. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER NRN OLD MEXICO TO MOVE E THROUGH SUNDAY IN THE SUBTROPICAL JET TO PROVIDE SCT SHOWERS AND PERHAPS EVEN A TSTM BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH MVFR CEILINGS.
937 PM EDT SAT APR 4 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND IN TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THE SCA WAS EXTENDED INTO THIS EVENING AS WINDS AND SEAS BUILD AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. A WEAK WAVE ALOFT WILL DRAG ANOTHER COLD FRONT THRU THE REGION. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM 30 TO 35 IN THE MTNS TO THE LOW TO MID IN THE S.
827 PM PDT SAT APR 4 2015 After the threat of some early evening showers the skies will clear setting the stage for a dry but chilly night with widespread freezing temperatures expected.
OVERLAID WITH MODEL STREAMLINE ANALYSIS DETAIL LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. GIVING WAY TO SEEMINGLY PERMANENT LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGHING ACROSS THE MIDWEST. THE KEYS ARE BENEATH THE NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEPEST MIDDLE AND UPPER RIDGING PARKED IN LOWER CENTRAL AMERICA. AS THE SURFACE AND IN THE LOWER TO MID LEVELS. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM OFF OF NORTH CAROLINA SOUTHWEST TO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. RIDGING IS BIFURCATED ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA. ALTHOUGH SURFACE RIDGING OVER THE OHIO VALLEY IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE CAROLINA PIEDMONT BY 12Z. WITH WEAK SURFACE RIDGING REMAINING JUST NORTHWEST AND NORTHEAST OF THE KEYS OVERNIGHT AND ON SUNDAY.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE INTO NORTHERN UTAH SUNDAY.
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN LEADING EDGE OF THE HIGH AND THE WEAK STALLED BOUNDARY MAY PRODUCE BREEZY CONDS FROM THE CAPE NORTHWARD. RATHER FLAT MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO AMPLIFY OVER THE GOMEX. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL EXIST OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WITH OCCASIONAL PIECES OF ENERGY RIDING OVER THE RIDGE AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN PENINSULA. THE MID-LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE GOMEX WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY THROUGH WED BEFORE SLIDING FURTHER EAST ACROSS THE PENINSULA ON THU THEN OFF OF THE EAST COAST INTO FRI. THE WESTERN ATLC RIDGE AXIS NORTH OF THE AREA ON TUE WILL SLIDE SOUTHWARD TO ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL FL FOR WED-FRI. THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN MAINLY ONSHORE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
BEST ISENTROPIC LIFTING CONTINUES TO BE LATE TONIGHT MAINLY BETWEEN 06Z TO 12Z AS REMNANTS OF THE COLD FRONT RETREAT BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. DID TWEAK TEMPS TO THE WARMER OVERNIGHT WITH THE INFLUX OF MOISTURE. COLD FRONT REMAINS WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA.
824 PM EDT SAT APR 4 2015 PRECIP CONTINUES TO DIMINISH IN COVERAGE AS A COLD FRONT IS EXITING NE FL TO THE SOUTH. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER/MID 50S FOR INLAND SE GA. AS THE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THRU THE REGION. THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM OCALA TO PONTE VEDRA AND WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT TO THE SE.
800 PM EDT SAT APR 4 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER OUR AREA LATE TONIGHT. AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROF CONTINUES TO EXIT TO THE EAST ALLOWING THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW TO BECOME ZONAL FOR SUNDAY. WITH THIS HIGH CENTERED ACROSS NRN NC BY DAWN SUNDAY. JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE WFO RNK FORECAST AREA IS FORECAST TO DROP BELOW FREEZING. LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS SUNDAY WHICH IS ONLY A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. SUNDAY NIGHT WILL START OUT QUIET AS SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW AROUND HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST BRINGING WARMER AND MORE MOIST AIR INTO THE REGION.
STILL LOOKING LIKE A WET EASTER SUNDAY WITH MOISTURE AND SHORT WAVE ENERGY COMBINED WITH THE LIFT FROM THE APPROACHING WARM FRONT. /ISSUED 224 PM CDT SAT APR 4 2015/ COLD FRONT SLOWING DOWN ACROSS THE N GULF JUST S OF THE 60NM COASTAL MARINE ZONE. THIS IS ABOUT THE FURTHEST SOUTH THE HIGH WILL BUILD. SHIFTING MORE EAST THEN SOUTHEAST AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN SUNDAY AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE INTERACTS WITH THE FRONT MOVING BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT.
629 PM CDT SAT APR 4 2015 A WEAK STATIONARY BOUNDARY/WARM FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA ACROSS EAST CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTH WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR FILTERING IN FROM THE NORTH.
A large area of high pressure centered near Arkansas will drift east to near the Carolinas by 12z/7am Sunday. An expansive area of dry air associated with the high will remain across IL tonight.
/ISSUED 247 PM EDT SAT APR 4 2015/ DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OVER THE CWA THROUGH SUNDAY. WITH THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE CWA TONIGHT.
A WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH NORTH OVERNIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. /ISSUED 342 PM CDT SAT APR 4 2015/ COLD FRONT IS NOW LOCATED WELL INTO THE GULF BUT STALLING ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF. HIGH PRESSURE NOW OVER THE MISS RIVER VALLEY WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT AND ALLOW FOR RETURN FLOW TOMORROW. SHORT WAVE TROUGH FOUND ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY PUSHING INTO CALIFORNIA/BAJA COAST SHOULD QUICKLY PUSH ACROSS THE S ROCKIES TONIGHT. TROUGH SHOULD REACH THE S PLAINS BY SUN AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW CONTINUES MON THROUGH WED WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING. DEEP TROUGH MOVES FROM THE PAC IN THE ROCKIES TUE THROUGH WED NIGHT.
610 PM CDT Sat Apr 4 2015 A large area of high pressure centered near Arkansas will drift east to near the Carolinas by 12z/7am Sunday. An expansive area of dry air associated with the high will remain across IL tonight.
COOLER AND DRIER AIR HAS MOVED INTO THE REGION BEHIND A COLD FRONT.
1015 PM CDT SAT APR 4 2015 06Z TAF CYCLE AN UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE PANHANDLES SUNDAY WHICH WILL BRING ISOLATED CONVECTION MAINLY TO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLES AND SHOULD REMAIN EAST OF THE THREE TAF SITES.
/ISSUED 657 PM CDT Sat Apr 4 2015/ /00Z TAFS/ Ceilings expected to gradually fall to MVFR and eventually IFR overnight as warm front moves through (except for MVFR ceilings at KABI). /ISSUED 335 PM CDT Sat Apr 4 2015/ (Tonight and Sunday) Latest analysis indicates a weak ridge over the southeastern US with southwesterly flow aloft across west Texas. Overnight lows will be a few degrees warmer than the last couple days. mainly in the lower to mid 50s.