Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Ridging aloft will build into the PAH forecast area this weekend as high surface pressure gradually gives way to southerly surface/southwesterly low level flow. In fact, after morning lows in the teens, today's highs are forecast to jump 25-30 degrees compared to Christmas Day, with lows tonight near freezing. This feature will drag a cold front through our region Sun night. Surface temps are expected to bottom out around freezing right at daybreak after the pcpn has ended.
956 AM EST Sat Dec 26 2020 Arctic high pressure over the region will move off the southern mid- Atlantic coast on Sunday.
619 AM EST Sat Dec 26 2020 Cold high pressure will build across the region today before sliding offshore by late Sunday.
1127 AM CST Sat Dec 26 2020 Today will be much warmer, and already is as of 3am, with highs in the mid 50s to low 60s. A cold front moves through Sunday afternoon and evening, but a lack of moisture, especially in the area of upward motion, should limit precip and certainly limit significant precip.
Another very cold night is in store overnight with high pressure centered over the eastern half of our forecast area. Coldest readings will be over the FL Big bend and southern GA under the high with readings well down into the middle 20s expected. On Sunday real moderation begins as the high shifts east and some weak WAA begins. Expect highs almost 10 degrees warmer than today.
1254 PM EST Sat Dec 26 2020 Dry conditions and a gradual warmup are in store for today through Sunday as high pressure tracks to the south.
233 PM EST Sat Dec 26 2020 High pressure and dry conditions expected for much of the short term portion of the forecast.
Breezy downslope winds will result in mixing in the lower levels of the atmosphere. As the high moves closer late tomorrow afternoon, winds will become light and variable.
226 PM EST Sat Dec 26 2020 Snow showers will continue to taper off as high pressure builds overhead.
Based on projected low level wind gradients, will likely end the High Wind Warning before expiration at 5 PM. A colder day expected in the wake of the cold front, with chilly 700 mb temperatures only near -11 Celsius.
A cold front will move south across the area late Sunday morning and afternoon, with winds becoming north and speeds less than 15 mph.
Surface analysis this afternoon places a 1025 mb ridge of high pressure over Southern Alabama. This has brought sunny skies with southerly winds on the back side of high pressure advecting warmer air back into the Lower Mississippi Valley this afternoon. As of 2 PM CST, temperatures across the Mid-South risen into the lower 50s at many locations. Short term models indicate the aforementioned ridge of high pressure will move east over the next 24 hours. Lows tonight will be at least 15-20 degrees warmer than this morning with highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s on Sunday.
329 PM EST Sat Dec 26 2020 High pressure will pass across the region tonight and Sunday favoring fair weather.
155 PM CST Sat Dec 26 2020 Ridging aloft is building into the Midwest today, resulting in temperatures quickly rebounding from the frigid Christmas Day. Winds are shifting towards southerly as low pressure in the Northern Plains becomes a more influential source of steering. That low will cross to the north of the forecast area tomorrow through tomorrow night, bringing a cold frontal passage through the Quad State tomorrow evening. Despite the cold front providing a boundary, weak forcing and limited moisture makes precipitation limited. Temperatures Sunday night are expected to drop below freezing north/west of the Ohio River following the front, so no changeover to snow is anticipated.
350 PM EST Sat Dec 26 2020 A cool December afternoon is ongoing across the Florida Keys with temps struggling to rise above the lower 60s this afternoon as a north wind persists.
High- resolution models are showing greater confidence in showers developing across southeastern Oregon late this morning/early this afternoon along a cold front. The cold front may generate enough instability to produce a stray lightning strike or two. VFR, except MVFR/IFR conditions associated with snow showers (mix of rain/snow/freezing rain in the lower valleys until 18Z).
High pressure through the column will be moving across the Southeast, maintaining clear skies. The forecast appears to have a good handle on that, with forecast highs in snow covered areas in the lower to mid 30s, and in the lower to mid 40s outside those areas. Clear and calm conditions are forecast to persist at all TAF sites through the period as high pressure moves across the region. DGS Chattanooga Airport, TN 27 54 37 53 31 / 0 0 10 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 24 52 36 49 27 / 0 0 10 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 24 51 35 49 26 / 0 0 10 10 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 17 50 30 45 24 / 0 0 0 10 0.
239 PM CST Sat Dec 26 2020 Current surface analysis places trough to the lee of the Rockies, while high settles northern Saskatchewan/Manitoba. Quiet and chilly conditions expected Sunday night as high pressure settles in.
142 PM EST Sat Dec 26 2020 Cold high pressure remains across the region today, with another dry and rather cool day as temperatures hover in the 40s and 50s this afternoon. One other thing to mention, and this was first noted in the previous discussion, is that flow just above the surface is expected to become more southeasterly, adding to the potential for some warmer temperatures.
1237 PM EST Sat Dec 26 2020 Cold high pressure will prevail through the weekend.
Highs will range from the low to mid 50 across much of the area, except upper 50s/near 60 along the Treasure Coast. Across northern Lake and inland Volusia counties, low temperatures look to fall to near freezing in more rural/wind sheltered locations, with areas of frost developing. Min RH values will fall as low as the low to mid 30s across the interior this afternoon, with winds N/NW around 5-10 mph.
1202 PM EST Sat Dec 26 2020 An upper trough will cross the area today producing clouds along with scattered snow showers across the higher terrain. High pressure will gradually build into the region for the second half of the weekend.
A cold front will move across the region during the mid to late afternoon.
High pressure through the column will be moving across the Southeast, maintaining clear skies. The forecast appears to have a good handle on that, with forecast highs in snow covered areas in the lower to mid 30s, and in the lower to mid 40s outside those areas. Surface ridging across the area will keep winds light and less than 10kts. Deep upper trough is moving northeast of the area with a moderation of temperatures aloft beginning. Surface ridging will be the dominant weather maker for today and tonight.
This snow should wrap into the region later today as the low drops into South Dakota. A cold front will move south across the region this afternoon and evening. NW flow aloft behind the cold front will bring colder temperatures on Sunday that will be closer to normal for late December.
Buoy 42097 at Pulley Ridge indicated subsiding seas over the past few hours, suggesting that our Gulf waters have fallen below Small Craft Advisory criteria. From synopsis: High pressure centered near Louisiana will progress eastward along the Gulf Coast this afternoon, reaching the mid Atlantic coast by Sunday.
248 PM CST Sat Dec 26 2020 Return flow across the region has helped to usher warmer temperatures into the area as winds maintained a southerly component today. As a result, overnight lows tonight will be around 10 degrees warmer than last night. with areas east of I-55 more likely to see temps drop below freezing. Clear skies will continue overnight and into the morning, but clouds will increase tomorrow afternoon in southeastern AR as the next trough moves closer to the Miss River Valley. Even with the clouds moving in later in the day, high temps tomorrow will mostly be in the low to mid 60s.
Surface analysis late this morning places a 1028 mb ridge of high pressure centered over Southern Alabama late this morning. Southerly winds on the back side of high pressure will help to moderate temperatures back into the upper 40s near the Tennessee River and lower to perhaps middle 50s elsewhere this afternoon. /issued 330 AM CST Sat Dec 26 2020/ Southerly winds have resumed across the Mid-South early this morning, but northwesterly flow aloft continues as the deep eastern trough traverses the Mid-Atlantic states. Notably warmer conditions are anticipated this afternoon with highs at or above climatology, mainly in the low/mid 50s. The normal colder areas in west TN and northeast MS may still dip below freezing for a few hours. Above normal temperatures will continue for Sunday ahead of this cold front with highs in the upper 50s and lower 60s.
201 PM EST Sat Dec 26 2020 Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb trough in the ern U. and a trough in the Pacific NW with a broad ridge across the plains this morning. A transition to northwest flow LES is expected Mon as 850 mb temps drop to around -20C that will diminish Mon night as mid level and sfc ridging again build into the region.
1146 AM CST Sat Dec 26 2020 A generally cooler day in store with cold air advection behind a departing boundary. Under the influence of surface ridging, winds will be light today, and these nearly calm winds overnight have allowed patchy fog to form across the area. Snowfall totals will range from a few tenths along I- 90 to around 1 inch through the Highway 14 corridor.
Gilstad Two cold front will impact the region today. The second, stronger front will arrive later this evening, which will change any rain to snow at the lower elevations. The mountains could see upwards of 3-5 inches on the highest peaks. Slick roads are possible Saturday night as temperatures will drop below freezing. Sunday will dry out as high pressure builds back into the area. High temperatures today will be in the low to mid 40s before cooling on Sunday into the 30s.
1130 AM EST Sat Dec 26 2020 Cold high pressure will build across the region through tonight before sliding offshore by late Sunday afternoon.
Highest accumulations are expected along and north of the Highway 14 corridor where around an inch is forecast. Highs Sunday will be near or slightly cooler than today.
258 PM EST Sat Dec 26 2020 Cold high pressure will prevail through Sunday.
Lows tonight will actually be warmer than highs were on Christmas Day! The warming trend will continue Sunday as south winds increase ahead of a cold front.
Mid-level ridging builds back over the region Sunday and Sunday night with a moderate southeasterly surface winds and temperatures warming into the upper 70s and lower 80s Sunday.
Temperatures will be a little warmer as highs reach the upper 50s and lower 60s.
To start off the week, temperatures near to slightly above normal as upper ridging builds back into the region.
1127 AM CST Sat Dec 26 2020 (Today and tonight) Zonal flow aloft will develop across the Rockies today, with associated lee trough developing by afternoon. Breezy southwest winds will persist for the overnight hours, along with warmer overnight low temperatures in the upper 30s and low/mid 40s.
Current mid-level ridging over the region will get squashed tnt and Sunday as a couple waves of energy move through. At the surface an inverted trof over the eastern part of the state will likely help with LL convergence/UVM.
110 PM EST Sat Dec 26 2020 Arctic high pressure over the region will move off the southern mid- Atlantic coast on Sunday.
1032 AM EST Sat Dec 26 2020 High pressure, clear skies and dry conditions will continue. Warming trend expected as deep upper trough continues to move east while NW flow, subsidence and clear skies persist.
629 PM EST Sat Dec 26 2020 Snow showers will continue to taper off as high pressure builds overhead.
935 PM EST Sat Dec 26 2020 Arctic high pressure over the region will move off the southern mid- Atlantic coast on Sunday.
Colder air will linger for the next several days with ridge to the west and northwest flow aloft. Upper low in the eastern Pacific expected to dive into the Great Basin, undercutting the ridge and keeping temperatures somewhat closer to normal through the end of the year. This snow should wrap into the region later today as the low drops into South Dakota. A cold front will move south across the region this afternoon and evening. NW flow aloft behind the cold front will bring colder temperatures on Sunday that will be closer to normal for late December.
Marginal conditions for a freeze warning and may see a few locations (traditionally colder - wind sheltered) along/north of I-4 hit freezing briefly (or just below) overnight. High pressure centered to the north over the southeast U. The low-level winds will veer onshore areawide as the airmass finally moderates. NW/N winds 8-12 kts will gradually veer to NNE/NE overnight into Sun as high pressure to the north shifts off of the southeast U.
It is expected to bring with it a cold front which will move through our area tonight and Sunday morning.
815 PM EST Sat Dec 26 2020 High pressure sits over the southeast U. The high temps today topped out only in the mid to upper 50's, which is around 15 degrees below average. The temps began to drop rapidly after the sun went down and is already in the low to mid 40's across the region. High pressure over the southeast U.
On the Plains, a cold front will arrive late tonight with breezy conditions expected into Sunday morning. This will keep cooler air in place, with highs around 10 deg F cooler for afternoon highs. Highs will likely top out in the upper 40s to lower 50s on the Plains, while the San Luis Valley will only reach into the lower 30s.
614 PM EST Sat Dec 26 2020 Cold high pressure will prevail through Sunday.
/Issued 221 PM CST Sat Dec 26 2020/ A subtle mid level ridge continues to move into the region in the wake of the departing trough that is now centered over the northeastern portion of the US. Sunday will see a cold front move through during the afternoon and early evening hours. The overnight hours will see the temperature cool considerably as high pressure builds any keeping skies mostly clear to partly cloudy through the night.
Ridging aloft is building into the Midwest today, resulting in temperatures quickly rebounding from the frigid Christmas Day. Winds are shifting towards southerly as low pressure in the Northern Plains becomes a more influential source of steering. That low will cross to the north of the forecast area tomorrow through tomorrow night, bringing a cold frontal passage through the Quad State tomorrow evening. Despite the cold front providing a boundary, weak forcing and limited moisture makes precipitation limited. Temperatures Sunday night are expected to drop below freezing north/west of the Ohio River following the front, so no changeover to snow is anticipated.
Diffluence aloft will result in weak forcing producing periods of light snow late Sunday and Sunday night with several inches of snow possible over the higher terrain of the southern San Juan mountains.
253 PM MST Sat Dec 26 2020 Current surface analysis shows low pressure over eastern MT, with warm front extending southeast through the western Dakotas and a cold front stretching back westward across MT. Upper level analysis shows flattening ridge over the Plains, with west- southwest flow over the western US. A unsettled and cooler pattern will settle over the region through the next several days as a series of systems cross the region. Some upslope enhanced snowfall is favored over the northern and northwestern Black Hills later tonight and Sunday morning, especially the higher elevations, as northwesterly winds increase behind the front and sufficient moisture is in place. Some amounts to 3 or 4 inches look likely over areas from Lead and Terry Peak to Cheyenne Crossing and O'Neill Pass, as well as the higher Bear Lodge Mts.
/22/ Return flow across the region has helped to usher warmer temperatures into the area as winds maintained a southerly component today. As a result, overnight lows tonight will be around 10 degrees warmer than last night. with areas east of I-55 more likely to see temps drop below freezing. Clear skies will continue overnight and into the morning, but clouds will increase tomorrow afternoon in southeastern AR as the next trough moves closer to the Miss River Valley. Even with the clouds moving in later in the day, high temps tomorrow will mostly be in the low to mid 60s.
as a de-amplifying upper level ridge progresses eastward from the Rockies into the Central Plains. as a potent upper level low approaches the southern Pacific coast.
620 PM EST Sat Dec 26 2020 High pressure will pass across the region tonight and Sunday favoring fair weather.
/issued 142 PM EST Sat Dec 26 2020/ Cold high pressure remains across the region today, with another dry and rather cool day as temperatures hover in the 40s and 50s this afternoon. One other thing to mention, and this was first noted in the previous discussion, is that flow just above the surface is expected to become more southeasterly, adding to the potential for some warmer temperatures.
Surface dew points have been steady in the lower/mid 20s this afternoon but are expected to slowly rise tonight ahead of this clipper-type system. Nevertheless, included up to 1/2" of snow for far NW Neb mainly along the Pine Ridge, and a skiff for the rest of northern Neb. Northwest flow takes over aloft with a trough digging into the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes. Extra sunshine in the afternoon will do little to help further warm the southwest with H85 temps hanging out near freezing.
/Issued 233 PM EST Sat Dec 26 2020/ High pressure and dry conditions expected for much of the short term portion of the forecast.
Across coastal northeast FL, lows will be in the low 30s and a freeze warning goes into effect at midnight. Temperatures will be a little warmer as highs reach the upper 50s and lower 60s.
Tonight should be much warmer than the previous couple of nights as lows are still only forecast to drop into the upper 20s and low 30s by tomorrow morning.
Current surface analysis places trough to the lee of the Rockies, while high settles northern Saskatchewan/Manitoba. Quiet and chilly conditions expected Sunday night as high pressure settles in.
The mountains could see upwards of 3-5 inches on the highest peaks. Slick roads are possible Saturday night for areas that received rain during the day, as temperatures will drop below freezing. Snow will linger into Sunday morning, but will begin clearing by late morning, with high pressure building back into the area. Highs Sunday will be a little cooler once again, with highs mainly in the 30s and a few 20s east, still situated under the cold airmass.
Clear skies and cold temperatures this evening as arctic high pressure settle over the eastern Tennessee Valley. Otherwise, VFR conditions as an area of high pressure will produce dry conditions.
A cold front will drop SE into the state near the end of this TAF period. Again expect above normal temperatures for Sunday, before a cold front approaches northwest sections of the state late in the day.
1208 AM EST Sun Dec 27 2020 Arctic high pressure over the region will move off the southern mid- Atlantic coast on Sunday.
1012 PM EST Sat Dec 26 2020 High pressure centered over the southeastern United States supports gentle to moderate north to northeast breezes across the Florida Keys. Dewpoints are near 40 for the Lower Keys. An hour or two of calm winds across the Lower Keys would result in temperatures near 50, although our confidence in this scenario is low. From synopsis, high pressure centered over the southeastern United States will continue eastward overnight, reaching the mid Atlantic coast by Sunday. As the high shifts east, breezes will become northeasterly.
Clear skies and cold temperatures this evening as arctic high pressure settle over the eastern Tennessee Valley.
Ridging will produce another dry day today with increasing 850mb and thickness moderating temperatures. For this afternoon and overnight, pressure gradient tighten as a fast moving system approaches the tennessee Valley and surface ridging remains east of the Appalachians. For tonight, good valley/ridge temperature variation. The southwest flow will keep ridge tops warm and sheltered/decoupled wind valleys being colder.
The ridge will settle from southern Georgia to the coast of the Carolinas around daybreak. An area of low pressure over the southern Plains early this morning will shift northeastward and deepen as it moves towards Chicago by the evening. A coastal trough will develop across southern and central Florida this morning and then shift westward through the afternoon. Low level moisture will increase across north central and northeast Florida today as the low level flow shifts onshore. After a very cold start, warmer temperatures are expected today due to the onshore flow developing, with highs in the mid to upper 50s across southeast Georgia and around 60 to 65 degrees across northeast Florida. Lows will be in the low to mid 40s across interior northeast Florida and coastal southeast Georgia, and the upper 40s to lower 50s for coastal northeast Florida.
Ridging aloft is building into the Midwest today, resulting in temperatures quickly rebounding from the frigid Christmas Day. Winds are shifting towards southerly as low pressure in the Northern Plains becomes a more influential source of steering. That low will cross to the north of the forecast area tomorrow through tomorrow night, bringing a cold frontal passage through the Quad State tomorrow evening. Despite the cold front providing a boundary, weak forcing and limited moisture makes precipitation limited. Temperatures Sunday night are expected to drop below freezing north/west of the Ohio River following the front, so no changeover to snow is anticipated. Following the front, high temperatures Monday will be much cooler, in the upper 30s to lower 40s.
237 AM CST Sun Dec 27 2020 Temperatures are much warmer than 24 hours ago with observation sites sitting in the 20s and 30s instead of the teens with some high clouds moving through the area.
While a few valley spots have seen winds fall off and temperatures dip into the 30s, persistent south winds will keep most locations quite a bit warmer than what we've seen the past few mornings.
A weakening cold front may support a few showers near the Tennessee border Monday. As of 1245 am: The center of cool, dry high pressure will shift from the Deep South to the Carolina Coast overnight under zonal flow aloft. This will result in a slight rebound in low-level thicknesses and should result in min temps not as cold as last night, especially across the high terrain. Can't rule out some patchy fog or freezing fog around larger lakes, and within the more sheltered mtn valleys, but moisture return doesn't look to be occurring quite as fast as expected.
Temperatures were on track to bottom out from the lower 30s east to the upper 30s west and no changes to the forecast was needed. /22/ Prior discussion below: Return flow across the region has helped to usher warmer temperatures into the area as winds maintained a southerly component today. As a result, overnight lows tonight will be around 10 degrees warmer than last night. with areas east of I-55 more likely to see temps drop below freezing. Clear skies will continue overnight and into the morning, but clouds will increase tomorrow afternoon in southeastern AR as the next trough moves closer to the Miss River Valley. Even with the clouds moving in later in the day, high temps tomorrow will mostly be in the low to mid 60s.
(Today and tonight) The main feature of the short term will be a cold front moving through this morning, bringing a wind shift to the north and slightly cooler temperatures (more significant cold air advection will be delayed resulting in larger temperature drops Monday).
Winds will become light onshore from the east to east northeast as high pressure shifts away from the area. Temperatures will be a little warmer as highs reach the upper 50s and lower 60s.