Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Fog may also become an issue from KALI to KVCT as the winds begin to decrease as the lower CIGS begin to develop. The mid to upper level ridge axis from the western Gulf of Mexico through South Texas into northern Mexico will remain in place through the forecast period. Some mid and high level moisture will move through the ridge axis into South Texas especially Wednesday into Wednesday night.
Little change is expected over the short term as upper level ridging builds over the region, bringing more meainly dry weather.
702 PM EST Tue Jan 30 2018 Modifying Arctic high pressure will build across the Carolinas through the middle of the week leading to dry conditions. Continental high pressure is moving into the area with cold air advection continuing on the front side of the high. High pressure will move across the region on Wednesday and in the process switch from a cold to weak warm air advection regime. Low temps Wednesday night right around or slightly below the freezing mark.
711 PM EST Tue Jan 30 2018 A cool evening expected across west-central and SW Florida tonight as high pressure settles in over the area. Mostly clear skies and diminishing winds should allow for some decent radiational cooling tonight with temps dropping to near freezing across portions of the Nature Coast with upper 30s to mid 40s expected elsewhere.
700 PM EST Tue Jan 30 2018 Brisk southwest winds will bring milder temperatures and mostly cloudy skies to the region through Wednesday, with highs generally in the lower 40s Wednesday afternoon.
We should see efficient radiational cooling tonight and fall below freezing in the upper 20s to low 30s (~5-8 degrees below normal). Thermal profiles will have warmed very efficiently nearly 8+ degrees C or so, which will help us warm 10-15 degrees into the low-mid 60s (~5-10 degrees above normal). Went on the higher end of guidance for highs to account for this efficient mixing environment.
714 PM EST Tue Jan 30 2018 High pressure will keep dry weather over the region tonight and Wednesday.
On Wednesday, a warm front will pass north of the area and may trigger some light snow over some parts of the Finger Lakes and Tug Hill. The general trend will be for the lake effect to weaken and shift northeast as the low level flow shift to 300 then 280 late tonight. Could see a couple inches along the higher terrain in Onondaga, Cayuga, and Cortland counties. A slow moving upper-level trough approaching from the west, along with an associated surface clipper and trailing cold front, will be our main weather systems this period.
1054 PM EST Tue Jan 30 2018 Under partly cloudy skies and north to northeast winds of 15 to 25 mph, temperatures are in the lower to mid 60s along the island chain. Surface wise, a massive high pressure system (1029-1030 mb) is covering the entire Eastern United States, most of the Gulf of Mexico and the entire Sunshine State. The aforementioned (1st paragraph) expansive high pressure system reaching southward into our region will move swiftly eastward turning our low level winds to northeast overnight.
soon to be replaced by some clouds behind a cold front which is moving thru Langdon/DVL region at 00z and will be arriving in the nrn RRV 01-02z.
Dry across the region on Wednesday with cooler but still above normal temperatures.
Fire weather concerns will continue to remain a primary concern Wed with relative humidity values expected to drop back into the 20s and lower 30s, and gusty southerly winds ahead of the next system and associated cold front.
The first cold front has passed well to the south, but a a secondary front approaches from the north. SCT Early Update: Satellite and radar imagery are showing an area of increased clouds and isolated precipitation from overrunning moisture along the cold front that stretches along the Yellowstone River Valley area. SCT Previous Discussion: Tonight the region will be on the backside of the departing low pressure system that has pushed east into the Dakotas. The cold front is forecast to become nearly stationary overnight across southern Phillips, northern Garfield, down into Prairie and Dawson counties.
435 PM MST Tue Jan 30 2018 A passing cold front has brought gusty winds followed by cooler, yet still above average temperatures across the area. The next, stronger arctic cold front will dive south out of southern Canada during the day on Wednesday, followed by much colder air to follow, as well as light snow chances.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 26 54 38 53 / 0 0 10 60 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 22 51 35 51 / 0 0 0 60 Oak Ridge, TN 22 51 36 51 / 0 0 10 70 Tri Cities Airport, TN 17 50 28 51 / 0 0 0 60.
A subtle trough across the Central Plains will push a cold front into the region which will be the first in a series of much colder air expected to infiltrate the Four State Region through the medium range.
For Wednesday clouds will be increasing as a warm front approaches the forecast area.
Current analysis shows warmer air will be with us this evening prior to a modified cool front and weak low moving southeast of the area during the night.
Lee troughing will organize in SE Colorado through the afternoon, resulting in S/SW winds prevailing across SW KS. The strongest winds will remain across the SE zones, with much lighter winds with westward extent, in closer proximity to the lee trough. After midnight, a weak dry cold front will bring a northerly wind shift through sunrise Wednesday. Some modest north wind gusts of 20-30 mph can be expected, with temperatures holding well above normal in the low to mid 30s. Noticeably cooler, but still about 10 degrees above normal for the last day of January.
Temps will be on the cool side again tonight ranging 8 to 10 degrees below seasonal norms, or upper 20s to near 30 generally north of the I-10 corridor and the low to mid 30s closer to the coast, followed by highs Wed near seasonal levels, ranging from the lower 60s for most inland areas and the upper 50s near the immediate coast.
High pressure was over the area this evening with light winds and seasonably chilly temperatures in the mid 20s to lower 30s. The center of the high will move east overnight, allowing light south winds to develop.
544 PM CST Tue Jan 30 2018 Even with enhanced mixing and warmer southerly surface winds of 15 to 30 mph, temperatures have been tempered by a thick cirrus deck overhead this afternoon. This again could lead to a small chance of light snow or flurries near the Buffalo Ridge as there appears to be enough saturation in the dendritic layer.
Aloft, a trof moving into the Great Lakes region will turn the NW flow more zonal across the region. With this in mind, have trended twd the warmer guidance for tonight, with some cloud cover and continued mixing expected thru the night helping to keep temps up. Believe warmest temps will be thru the middle of the CWA where the thermal ridge builds into the region, with slightly cooler temps further south.
A weak cold front will track south across north central Nebraska tonight, however, no precipitation is expected with this front. Highs on Wednesday will rise into the mid 40s which is only slightly cooler than highs on Tuesday. Locations near the Pine Ridge region will experience slightly cooler high temperatures in the upper 30s.
Tonight and Wednesday The latest RAP analysis and satellite/radar imagery show a strong area of low pressure passing across the Saskatchewan/Manitoba border early this afternoon. In the warm advection ahead of the low, mid-level fgen is producing an area of light to moderate snow which is crossing into NW WI. A cold front trails the low over NW ND, and will arrive late tonight. A strong cyclone will track east across Manitoba and Ontario tonight and Wednesday. The RAP and HRRR agree that mid- level fgen in the warm advection zone ahead of the cyclone will push a band of light snow across the area from late this afternoon through about mid-evening.
a cold front will sweep east and cross the region accompanied by showers and thunderstorms.
High pressure will slide eastward under the influence of a long wave trough across the eastern United States through Wednesday.
Temperatures today will be in the lower to mid 80s with the lower 80s being in areas that will see isolated showers today.
A weak disturbance will pass by the region, bringing high clouds, breezy winds, and slightly cooler temperatures for the middle of the week.
At the beginning of this period we will be in an almost zonal flow aloft with the trough to the north and ridge to our south, while at the surface a very weak cold front will be washing through the area here. The lee trough east of the mountains will make the wind field a little more organized over there, whereas the front will be hard to identify over here with such a weak wind field.
Axis of an upper level ridge will be moving across the area during the next 24 hours with summer like temperatures well into the 80s expected.
Clearing should progress across central IL late tonight, with lows bottoming out in the low 50s toward Galesburg and in the upper 50s toward Lawrenceville. Advancing high pressure on Wednesday should provide a dry day. The colder air aloft will allow for some diurnal cumulus to develop during the afternoon, but high temps should still have enough boost from the late May sun to reach the low 70s north of I-74 and upper 70s south of I-70. A warm front advancing north toward Illinois Wed night will produce some increasing clouds late in the night.
Highs will range from the low to mid 70s. Upper low continues to spin swwd of James Bay with parade of weak disturbances rotating through srn periphery of H5 trough. Boundary layer however has continued to dry with mid 40 dewpoint noted upstream and with a generally cooler low level airmass advecting in expect even less of a shower threat this aftn/evening compared to yesterday. Otherwise lingering shower possible along mid level trough axis this evening across srn/sern zones with partial clearing elsewhere. Expansion of nrn plains ridge sewd will yield a seasonably cool night with upper 40s/low 50s. Upper low will reform over sern QB by Fri with some expansion of upper ridge wwd through the nrn plains/wrn lakes.
Water vapor imagery showing the upper trough moving over southern MN this afternoon. There remains another short wave trough farther to the north.
A large scale ridge from northern Mexico through western Canada dominating, but it's a dirty ridge with a significant weakness in the flow immediately upstream near northern Baja / Gulf of CA. As a trough deepens near the west coast, the weakness immediately upstream will shift into eastern Arizona and western New Mexico by tomorrow afternoon.
Cooler and near averages temperatures return for Wednesday along with chances of showers across far northeast California. Warmer and drier weather returns for late week. However, high clouds are streaming over the region ahead of an approaching trough and it is expected that these clouds will limit late afternoon heating, likely cutting off some of the surface based instability. Expect breezy winds from this afternoon through tomorrow with gusts generally 20-30 mph as a trough moves through the region. Forcing along this trough is expected to weaken as it shifts eastward due to a retrograding parent low and an un-phasing of supporting dynamics. The highest peaks along the Sierra Crest may see a few snow showers, but accumulating snow is not expected.
Today through Wednesday Night First off this mrng, the cold front that dropped thru AR late Sun and Mon was situated to the SE of AR.
Active weather pattern for the next couple days as a low pressure system approaches and streams will continue to run high from snowmelt.
1141 AM MDT Tue May 30 2017 Updated aviation discussion Limited mid level moisture under a weak upper ridge is still expected to drift northward into our CWA today with a few late day showers and thunderstorms mainly over the mountains. it appears both the probability and predictability are high that a strong ridge dominate the central high latitudes of NOAM through the end of this week. It also suggests that the pattern across the lower 48 will be a bit stagnant with systems slow to move east to west and day to day weather very similar. low pressure to our west will be favorable for pulling up moisture from the Gulf of Mexico into Central Rockies and adjacent High Plains. A stronger upstream system drops into the picture late in the week and this will temporarily kick out the Western trough.
Despite still residing under the H500 cold pool associated with the upper low, H925/H850 temps will be running about 5 degrees C cooler. Breezy conditions will redevelop this afternoon with surface tight pressure gradient maintained by low pressure over Northern Ontario and high pressure over the southeast states supporting gusts 25 to 30 mph. Temperatures will run a little cooler today given the cooler thermal profiles, with highs in the low to mid 70s. This will again provide only a low chance for showers as the upper low and cold pool begin to lift east, and temperatures warm aloft. Low-level thermal trough should move across, holding max temperatures into the mid/upper 60s, while breezy conditions persist.
This high cloud base may result in enhanced evaportational cooling therefore increasing the potential for downburst winds.
Outside of a few clouds on Wednesday, anticipate a pleasant day Wednesday with highs mainly in the lower 70s.
However, most of the short term models place the highest rain coverage inland today with more scattered coverage near the coast. Mostly cloudy skies will continue and will keep high temps only in the low 80s.
Iowa continues to be affected by broad, deep cyclonic flow around the Hudson Bay upper low. The weak convection should quickly dissipate early in the evening leading to clearing skies into the night as high pressure slides down the Missouri Valley.
Seasonably cool, breezy conditions will persist through midweek with a slight chance of showers late tonight into Wednesday morning as an upper level trough moves inland.
If storms move in early enough while the airmass is still diurnally unstable, the combo of modest instability and shear and the presence of the low level boundary could support a few strong or severe storms with large hail and damaging winds into Wednesday night, mainly along and just south of the boundary which will be roughly from St.
Better moisture resides here south of a weak moisture/convergence boundary characterized by dewpoints in the low 60s to its south and upper 40s through upper 50s to the north. A few showers have also developed farther north toward Cincinnati in a cyclonic flow regime south of an upper low across Ontario, but these should quickly dissipate in a drier airmass as a quick spout of subsidence builds in behind this boundary. Precipitation will dwindle into Wednesday evening behind the front as high pressure builds into eastern Kentucky.
Upper ridge will continue to inch eastward from the Rockies tonight and Wednesday bringing warmer air aloft into the state. There have been few general changes to the two cycle ridge-trough pattern described below. Templer Previous condition - Synoptic Setup: Long range begins with a large ridge running down from the Northwest Territories through Montana, including eastern Montana, and into the Intermountain West. A large trough runs extends from the pacific Northwest and British Columbia back off through the Gulf of Alaska and south of the Aleutians.
329 PM EDT Tue May 30 2017 A weak disturbance ahead of a cold front will bring a chance of showers tonight. The chance for showers will persist on Wednesday as the cold front crosses the region, with thunderstorms also possible Wednesday afternoon.
300 PM EDT Tue May 30 2017 Moderately moist and unstable airmass in place with regime characterized by lingering stationary front near the I-20 corridor and broad upper trough axis to the west as main influencing features. No clear indicator for where convection will be focused Wednesday based on hi-res solutions, though one could argue the low/mid level moisture gradient and possibly more diffuse boundary could be shifted farther southward into central Georgia. Did not feel confident other than going general chance pops area-wide given very similar overall setup to today with any impulse east of the upper trough axis (though broad) perhaps enhancing precip potential.
241 PM CDT Tue May 30 2017 Clouds associated with an exiting upper trough will slowly clear overnight as an upper ridge transitions into the Plains and high pressure builds in at the sfc. By late Wednesday afternoon, winds will become more southeasterly ahead of some lee side troughing.
338 PM MDT Tue May 30 2017 The current visible satellite image is showing cumulus clouds popping up over the higher terrain.
An upper level low is spinning over Ontario, Canada. Pieces of energy will rotate around this low and will keep plenty of moisture for Middle Tennessee today and Wednesday as the low moves east into Quebec.
215 PM PDT Tue May 30 2017 A weak low pressure system moving through California will bring inland cooling through Wednesday with deepening of the marine layer into the far inland valleys.
latest sfc map at midnight EDT has weak cold front juxtaposed along the Ohio River with some 35 dbz SHRA echoes. This front will approach and wave rounding the base of the upper level trough will bring a renewed chance for scattered showers and perhaps an isolated thunderstorm.
Temperatures away from the coast are significantly cooler than this time yesterday, on the order of 10-15 degrees.
Behind this weak wave cool high pressure will build in at the surface, which will allow for weak winds, especially west of Interstate 29. Wednesday night there is a fair amount of warm air advection focused across eastern Nebraska lifting northeast with time behind a warm front.
223 PM EDT Tue May 30 2017 Cold fronts cross late Wednesday.
305 PM MDT Tue May 30 2017 Edited Synopsis The upper level ridge of high pressure will continue to reside over the region through Wednesday.
but warmer. As mentioned today should be warmer. Anglin The upper level ridge of high pressure will continue to reside over the region through Wednesday.
One short wave rotating south around the low is moving thru the Lake of the Woods region at 08z and is producing an area of light rain in NW/NC Minnesota. Enough sun to boost temps into the low or mid 60s this region.
A few of the stronger cells could produce marginally severe winds, primarily over NW AR where instability is expected to be the highest.
Isolated showers will be possible across the lower Texas Gulf waters and near the coast late tonight into Wednesday morning as low level moisture begins to increase.
Dynamics aloft are lacking somewhat as the upper ridge in place over the Rockies stretches east over the high plains.
Widespread lows in the lower to mid 30s are expected with widespread frost.
Still may see a rogue isolated shower this afternoon across the far NW Brush country where DPVA may be slightly stronger as a H5 s/w trough will be nearby. a rather potent H5 s/w trough is prog to advect NE across the CWA with a 65 kt jet streak at H25 also shifting overhead.
Early this morning the region was under the influence of trough extending south into the MS valley region from a closed low over Ontario. With the trough in place, a considerable amount of cloud cover is expected through the period along with chances for showers and perhaps a few mainly diurnally driven thunderstorms.
Models indicate a weak cold front across our region will keep isolated chances across our entire area this afternoon into this evening, with any lingering chances tapering off from north west to southeast late tonight as the front moves south. Weak high pressure should keep us dry on Wednesday.
Furthermore, could see additional activity move off the High Plains and into south- central KS toward midnight within zone of increasing moisture transport. Thinking somewhat better thunderstorm chances will arrive Wednesday afternoon-overnight across central and east-central KS, as high pressure approaching from the north sharpens the stalled frontal zone.
Trough axis swings through Wednesday evening with weak upper level forcing so scattered showers will continue. Mid level heights remain low with a near full latitude trough over the eastern CONUS.
Even with the low moisture levels, isolated showers have developed during peak heating. Cool and dry tonight as high pressure slides into the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest. Wednesday Pleasant late spring day with high pressure in control.
Strong high pressure aloft will move east across Utah through Wednesday. A weak Pacific trough will cross northern Utah during the latter half of the week, followed by high pressure building back in for the weekend.
Upper heights rise slightly as the western ridge nudges into the Rockies. Upper ridge continues to build across the High Plains on Wednesday.
The higher cloud bases and dry air aloft do indicate a potential for localized gusty winds, per DCAPE near 1000 J/kg, but this should be an isolated hazard. Surface analysis this morning places a quasi- stationary boundary across portions of Northern Alabama and North Mississippi and a weak cold front over portions of Southern Missouri and Southern Illinois. A weak cold front is expected to gradually drop into portions of Northeast Arkansas and West Tennessee this afternoon into tonight.
An upper level disturbance over Minnesota this afternoon will drop southward into the base of an upper trof and help to spark shower redevelopment tonight, especially after midnight. Wednesday the upper trof will gradually push off to the east with scattered shower activity tapering off from west to east. A compact dome of high pressure over Saskatchewan today will enter the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys Wednesday night and provide quiet weather with lows in the middle and upper 50s.
216 PM MDT Tue May 30 2017 20z surface analysis had 1023mb high over southern SK with ridge extending into NE. Water vapour showed upper ridge over the Rockies moving east.
409 PM CDT Tue May 30 2017 This afternoon/tonight through Wednesday: Rain and storms have been ongoing this afternoon across portions along and north of the Highway 82 corridor with some increasing chances slowly as you go towards the I-20 corridor, due to some efficient warming and diurnal heating. In this area temperatures have warmed nicely into the lower 80s. With temperatures falling into the low-mid 60s, especially across the northern half of the area, some patchy to patchy dense fog are possible across the Highway 82 corridor. A warm and cloudy day is expected Wednesday in the low 80s in southeast Mississippi where more convection will cause more widespread cloud cover and all.
Morning convection in the south has persisted a little longer than the hi-res models were indicating, thus more clouds and cooler temperatures here.
A Pacific system will move into the region today, pushing the upper ridge east of the area. At the same time a marine push will move across the area today, followed by a cold front and an upper wave axis late this afternoon through this evening.
At this time, with the main high pressure center just slightly west of the area across western and central North Dakota, think things will stay just warm enough in the upper 30s across our far western forecast area.
The low level jet will help maintain this activity through about 15Z. when the climatological diurnal convective lull occurs as the low level jet wanes and before daytime heating ramps up.
Models remain in good agreement with swinging the upper level trough axis northeast tonight, allowing for weak high pressure at the surface to build across the Upper Mississippi River Valley for Wed and Thu. The exiting trough will take the bulk of the saturation with it, and should leave us with a couple partly/mostly sunny and dry days. Warm front slated to lift from the Mid Mississippi River Valley northward Thu/Fri.
258 PM MDT Tue May 30 2017 The upper level ridge of high pressure will continue to reside over the region through Wednesday.