Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
528 AM CST Tue Dec 8 2020 Surface and upper-level ridge of high pressure to maintain dry and stable conditions across the ArkLaTex through the terminal forecast period ending 09/12Z. /Today through Wednesday/ Upper-level ridge extending from the Rockies into the desert southwest to build eastward into Texas through Wednesday. Thus, the ArkLaTex will be dominated by northerly flow aloft and ridging through the short term period, allowing for mostly clear skies. At the surface, high pressure centered over the western Gulf of Mexico and extending into Texas to provide light westerly winds through the short term period.
Cool and dry through Wednesday when things will begin to transition as the L/W trough slides east off the coast and the ridge over the central CONUS slides east and begins to flatten.
The only uncertainty remains with the possible development of low clouds/fog in Mississippi that may move into western Alabama as a warm front approaches during the overnight hours.
117 PM EST Tue Dec 8 2020 Deepening low pressure will pass well south and east of the area today.
926 AM MST Tue Dec 8 2020 High pressure will remain across the region through midweek.
Stratus is expected to continue dispersing from west to east going into tonight but satellite showing a fairly continuous plume of mid/higher level clouds making their way over a mid-level ridge in place across the western half of the CONUS into our region. Ridge of high pressure builds into the area from the west, yielding a mostly sunny and mild Wednesday.
945 AM MST Tue Dec 8 2020 Warm & dry conditions are likely to persist through Wednesday with strong upper-level ridging remaining in place over a large portion of the western & central US.
1214 PM EST Tue Dec 8 2020 The Mid Atlantic and Carolinas will remain between low pressure off the East Coast and high pressure over the Ohio and Tennessee Valley today and tonight. Dry weather is expected as the high builds over the central and southern Appalachians.
325 PM EST Tue Dec 8 2020 High pressure will prevail through late week.
215 PM EST Tue Dec 8 2020 The Mid Atlantic and Carolinas will remain between low pressure off the East Coast and high pressure over the Ohio and Tennessee Valley through Wednesday.
Eventually, the bulk of the lower level moisture will be shunted eastward and out of the area later this afternoon into tonight as surface winds become southwesterly. Best chances for the cloud cover to stick around will be the Evansville Tri State region where moisture is trapped below an inversion, so will trend toward the lower end of guidance numbers up that way since they are looking like they could be late to clear out. On Wednesday, we will see a much more substantial rise in high temperatures as an 850mb thermal ridge slides south across the area, bringing 850mb temperatures into the lower teens.
With that said, the cirrus haven't had a huge impact on today's high temperature forecast, with most areas already in the low to middle 60s. The aforementioned cirrus shield is poorly handled by model solutions, so overnight temps are a little on the lower confidence side. With that in mind see no reason to not hedge the highest guidance in line with the previous shift.
This is all in response to strong low pressure and its upper wave moving across Ontario into Quebec for today into Wed. The warm advection will leave a mild airmass in place for Wed despite the passage of a weak cold front Wed AM.
Upper level low off the east coast and large upper trough over the eastern states continues to bring in cold air from the north. High pressure at the surface has settled over the southeast states and upper trough axis is shifting to the east tonight. An upper ridge over Texas will begin to move east Wednesday and temperatures will warm 5 to 15 degrees as southwest winds develop over the area.
Cloud cover will increase through the day, with slightly cooler temperatures expected.
12z H850 analysis showed large pool of +10C warming over the High Plains and into the Rockies being driven southeast with time. The warmer air will continue move across Iowa overnight, keeping lows in the lower 30s over the region. A light west southwest breeze will likely cap any chances for fog tonight given the warmer air aloft. Otherwise, continued warmer air aloft and the milder start to the day will help boost afternoon highs into the lower 50s north to the upper 50s in the south.
Temperatures were only slowly warming into the lower to mid 30s as clouds have retarded warming so far. Removed the snow shower/flurry wording in the highest elevations with update and adjusted temperatures and dewpoints to match current trends. TD Chattanooga Airport, TN 30 59 35 63 40 / 0 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 28 54 34 60 36 / 0 0 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 28 55 33 59 36 / 0 0 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 25 50 30 58 33 / 0 0 0 0 0.
High pressure ridge will build from the west through Tonight. The cooler than normal airmass will remain in place, with lows Tonight near freezing inland, and in the mid to upper 30s closer to the coast.
Low level flow will veer and thermal ridging will expand across the region tomorrow with fcst low level temps expected to rise near seasonal extremes.
153 PM MST Tue Dec 8 2020 Mild and very dry across the CWA this afternoon and this will continue for one more day Weds as upper ridging moves across while weakening. Changes then ensue Weds night as an upper trough swings east over the northern plains and drives a cold front across the CWA.
Ridge of high pressure will build over the region during the second half of the week.
359 PM EST Tue Dec 8 2020 High pressure will cross the region tonight then slide south of the area on Wednesday.
235 PM CST Tue Dec 8 2020 17Z upper air analysis indicated that the amplifying ridge is gradually shifting eastward, with the downstream portion of the axis continuing to overspread the CWA which has led to warm and calm conditions at the surface. The increase in geopotential heights combined with light westerly to west-northwesterly winds will cause temperatures to rise into the lower 70s this afternoon and once again Wednesday afternoon, which is nearly 20 deg F above climatological norms. Radiative cooling processes will be enhanced tonight and tomorrow night as the ridge axis continues to move east, with the clear sky and light winds allowing temperatures to cool quickly after sunset with lows into the lower 30s across the CWA (which is also a few deg F above seasonal norms for this time of year).
(Wednesday night through next Tuesday) An upper level low to the west of Baja California will weaken and move eastward across the southwestern US through the week.
237 PM CST Tue Dec 8 2020 17Z upper air analysis indicated that the amplifying ridge is gradually shifting eastward, with the downstream portion of the axis continuing to overspread the CWA which has led to warm and calm conditions at the surface. The increase in geopotential heights combined with light westerly to west-northwesterly winds will cause temperatures to rise into the lower 70s this afternoon and once again Wednesday afternoon, which is nearly 20 deg F above climatological norms. Radiative cooling processes will be enhanced tonight and tomorrow night as the ridge axis continues to move east, with the clear sky and light winds allowing temperatures to cool quickly after sunset with lows into the lower 30s across the CWA (which is also a few deg F above seasonal norms for this time of year).
/issued 1010 AM CST Tue Dec 8 2020/ Upper ridging will start building into the area today. /issued 338 AM CST Tue Dec 8 2020/ Latest satellite imagery and surface observations show mostly clear skies over the area with current temperatures in the mainly in the lower 30s to upper 20s near the Tennessee River. Winds will remain light with dewpoints in the low to mid 30s this morning, providing some fog in low lying areas. Dense fog is not expected so have continued to leave out the mention of freezing fog. Temperatures this afternoon will increase to the low to mid 50s and mostly benign weather is expected today.
1020 AM MST Tue Dec 8 2020 A deep trough off the E coast, a deep closed low off the western Mexico coast and a broad area of high pressure across much of the US looks to have broken down the Rex Block as now a sort of quasi-omega block has set up across the nation. Aside from the trough along the east coast, there won't be much movement of either the ridge or closed low today. Tomorrow, a jet streak will round the base of low pressure off the Mexican coast and finally get it moving again.
Ridging aloft, with a weak surface reflection as well, builds east across the region on Wednesday. Should be a little warmer tonight than last night, but still chilly with lows dropping into the mid to upper 30s north of I-10 and in the lower to mid 40s south of I-10.
943 AM MST Tue Dec 8 2020 Warm & dry conditions are likely to persist through Wednesday with strong upper-level ridging remaining in place over a large portion of the western & central US.
155 PM EST Tue Dec 8 2020 Light snow chances return Wednesday mainly north of Pittsburgh and in the ridges. Dry and warmer weather returns to end the work week. Highs will top out slightly warmer than yesterday, but still around 5 degrees below average.
240 PM CST Tue Dec 8 2020 Clouds are finally eroding across the area this afternoon per visible satellite imagery, and much of the low cloud deck should erode by sunset. Some freezing fog cannot be ruled out either as temperatures drop to near or below the freezing mark by late evening. A much warmer day is anticipated for Wednesday with highs warming well into the 50s and even low 60s by afternoon under mostly sunny skies.
Skies are mostly cloudy in the Lower Keys, partly cloudy in the Middle Keys, and mostly sunny in the Upper Keys. Still nice and comfortable on this early December afternoon owed to northerly continental flow, with surface observations indicating very comfortable dewpoints near 50 in the Upper Keys and mid 50s in the Lower and Middle Keys.
/NEW/ /Through Tomorrow/ Texas remains wedged between a longwave trough in the eastern CONUS and a cut-off low meandering off the coast of Baja California. Most of the area will warm up into the low/mid 70s with a few spots across the southwest likely reaching the upper 70s.
1010 AM CST Tue Dec 8 2020 Upper ridging will start building into the area today. /issued 338 AM CST Tue Dec 8 2020/ Latest satellite imagery and surface observations show mostly clear skies over the area with current temperatures in the mainly in the lower 30s to upper 20s near the Tennessee River. Winds will remain light with dewpoints in the low to mid 30s this morning, providing some fog in low lying areas. Dense fog is not expected so have continued to leave out the mention of freezing fog. Temperatures this afternoon will increase to the low to mid 50s and mostly benign weather is expected today.
A trough approaching the area on Wednesday looks to primarily introduce shower activity along the northern forecast area border.
1133 AM CST Tue Dec 8 2020 Northwest mid/upper flow will persist across the central CONUS again today while a mid/upper ridge gradually builds eastward out of the Rockies. A cold front will bisect the area on Thu resulting in a wide range of temperatures. Although it'll be much cooler in the wake of the front, values will remain above climate normals for mid Dec. Rain chances will begin to ramp up Thu night into early Fri with a rain/snow mix still possible across portions of central Kansas late Thu night into early Fri before temperatures rise above freezing. Unsettled weather conditions are anticipated at the beginning of the period as a mid/upper trough is progged to impact the central CONUS.
342 PM EST Tue Dec 8 2020 High pressure will bring unseasonably cool temperatures through midweek.
100 PM EST Tue Dec 8 2020 High pressure will build across the area through late week.
112 PM MST Tue Dec 8 2020 Water vapor shows upper ridge dominating the western CONUS, with upper trof beginning to influence the Pac NW and cut off low off the Baja CA. Upper ridge will maintain control through much of Wednesday, although temps tomorrow will be a few degrees cooler as thermal ridge axis shifts east and cold front approaches from the west. Cold front moves through late Wednesday and Wednesday night as aforementioned Pac NW trof quickly translates through the Northern Rockies.
Highs tomorrow in far NW OK (Harper Co) are forecast to only make it into the 50s compared to the rest of the fa reaching the mid 60s to mid 70s so about 10 to 15 degrees cooler than the more immediate surrounding area.
Subsidence on the back side of the mid level trough currently located across much of the eastern half of the country will continue to overspread the area today allowing for mostly clear skies, warm temperatures, and light westerly winds. Slightly warmer 850mb temps should translate to a warmer day in the 60s for most across E OK and the upper 50s across NW AR. /Issued 320 AM CST Tue Dec 8 2020/ Upper level pattern this morning consists of a long wave trough across the eastern half of the country with a ridge extending through the Intermountain West.
The upper level pattern remains relatively amplified across the CONUS with a deep trough along the Eastern Seaboard with a broad ridge across the western 2/3rd's or so of the CONUS. At the surface, a broad area of high pressure extends across the region.
942 AM MST Tue Dec 8 2020 Warm & dry conditions are likely to persist through Wednesday with strong upper-level ridging remaining in place over a large portion of the western & central US.
Temperatures were only slowly warming into the lower to mid 30s as clouds have retarded warming so far. Removed the snow shower/flurry wording in the highest elevations with update and adjusted temperatures and dewpoints to match current trends.
Cooler Today, Colder Tonight with Frost Likely. Evening temperatures in the 50s will quickly fall after sunset, dropping into the low 40s after midnight. By early morning Tuesday, temperatures will be in the mid to upper 30s, with normally cooler sections of far northern Lake and northwest Volusia counties reaching the lower 30s. A cooler/drier airmass remains in place thru Wed with min RH values in the 30s but moderating back into the 40s/50s for Thu/Fri. Here are the low maximum temperature records for today December 8th.
We'll see a secondary trough push through tonight, which will shift winds around more to the northwest. There will be a non-trivial amount of mid/high clouds spilling down the east side of the ridge tonight and Wednesday, which could work to keep temperatures from getting too out of control on Wednesday, but we should still manage to push into the middle to upper 40s in the Twin Cities metro area with lower to middle 50s in southwest Minnesota. The upper-level pattern for the rest of the week continues to show ridging.
Upper ridge firmly in place across the Rockies today with a significant closed low spinning just of the CA coast. The ridge has helped boost temperatures into the 50s and 60s this afternoon, despite broken thin cirrus overhead. Low temps tonight relatively mild in the lower to mid 30s. And then highs again tomorrow should reach the lower 60s, but record values are generally a still a few degrees higher, but overall another fantastic day, averaging 22 to 26 degrees ABOVE normal.
752 PM MST Tue Dec 8 2020 Have cancelled the high wind advisory for the foothills as pressure tendencies suggest the strongest winds are done for the evening. Cloud cover will increase through the day, with slightly cooler temperatures expected.
708 PM EST Tue Dec 8 2020 A fast-moving short wave trough will drop down along a warm-ish front tonight and Wed AM.
While temperatures are a little warmer today than yesterday, light winds and clear skies will yet again lead to good conditions for radiational cooling.
620 PM EST Tue Dec 8 2020 The Mid Atlantic and Carolinas will remain between low pressure off the East Coast and high pressure over the Ohio and Tennessee Valley through Wednesday.
709 PM EST Tue Dec 8 2020 Canadian high pressure is well established over the Florida peninsula with cool dry conditions across the area. Clear skies, light winds, and a weak gradient will allow for strong radiational cooling with overnight lows dropping to near freezing across the nature coast. Temperatures will be several degrees warmer near the coast. Cool crisp conditions will persist on Wednesday under sunny skies and high temperatures generally in the lower to mid 60s.
335 PM CST Tue Dec 8 2020 A large mean ridge of high pressure continued to build across the region today. Cirrus was blowing off the western ridge and spreading overhead. For tomorrow, even warmer conditions are expected with highs in the 60s and low 70s. A large upper level cut off low pressure system was located off of the southern California coast today.
Some rural, low-lying locations across the interior could see temperatures to drop to the lower 30s (ie. near freezing) for a brief period of time.
700 PM EST Tue Dec 8 2020 High pressure will bring unseasonably cool temperatures through midweek.
/issued 237 PM CST Tue Dec 8 2020/ 17Z upper air analysis indicated that the amplifying ridge is gradually shifting eastward, with the downstream portion of the axis continuing to overspread the CWA which has led to warm and calm conditions at the surface. The increase in geopotential heights combined with light westerly to west-northwesterly winds will cause temperatures to rise into the lower 70s this afternoon and once again Wednesday afternoon, which is nearly 20 deg F above climatological norms. Radiative cooling processes will be enhanced tonight and tomorrow night as the ridge axis continues to move east, with the clear sky and light winds allowing temperatures to cool quickly after sunset with lows into the lower 30s across the CWA (which is also a few deg F above seasonal norms for this time of year).
528 PM MST Tue Dec 8 2020 Mild and very dry across the CWA this afternoon and this will continue for one more day Weds as upper ridging moves across while weakening. Changes then ensue Weds night as an upper trough swings east over the northern plains and drives a cold front across the CWA.
FREEZE WARNING AND FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR MOST Temperatures are dropping quickly with light to calm winds inland with some sites in the mid 30s already in southeast GA, around 40 in inland northeast FL, and in the lower to mid 40s closer to the coast. High pressure ridge will build from the west through Tonight. The cooler than normal airmass will remain in place, with lows Tonight near freezing inland, and in the mid to upper 30s closer to the coast.
935 PM EST Tue Dec 8 2020 High pressure will build into the area from the west through the middle of the week as the sub-tropical ridge aloft builds through the Southeast US. Highs will increase into the low to mid 50s. Height rises from an upper ridge are expected over the Eastern US by late week, pumped up by the next deep trough that will be moving across the central US. At the surface, high pressure will dive down from the Northeast US into the western Atlantic, with another area high pressure centered over the Gulf of Mexico.
Most notably, visible satellite imagery shows the western edge steadily eroding across the lower Ohio and Wabash River Valleys in response to a 925 thermal axis beginning to nudge into the area. As a result, temperatures aren't going to really go any farther today and most highs will be confined to the mid and upper 30s with a few spots in the low 40s. As we go into the evening and overnight, do expect a gradual scattering out of the low clouds as low level warm advection continues across the area, however some upper clouds will stream over the area associated with a nice upper jet streak. A big change arrives with temps around 15 to 20 degrees warmer thanks to low level thickness rises and a steady SW surface wind.
/Tonight through Wednesday Night/ Very pleasant and unseasonably warm conditions will remain over the course of this short-term forecast, as upper-level ridging remains overhead. This upper-level ridging will begin to break down into Wednesday however, allowing for winds to return to a more SW flow. As such, afternoon highs tomorrow will range in the low to mid-70s, with lows tonight and tomorrow hovering in the upper-30s and low-40s.
Dry and warmer weather returns to end the work week. Included the mention of freezing drizzle Wednesday morning.
An upper level ridge over the Pacific Coast/Intermountain West/Rockies will remain in place through Wednesday -- holding the northern stream jet at bay in Canada and the southern stream jet at bay along the Gulf Coast. Meanwhile, a cut-off upper low. trapped beneath the ridge offshore of Baja, CA.
An upper trough is pushing off the eastern seaboard while upper ridging is building into the southern Plains. Low temps will generally range from 33 to 37 degrees though would not be surprised to see some lows below the freezing mark in the typically colder spots in north MS and west TN.
327 PM MST Tue Dec 8 2020 High pressure will remain across the region through midweek.
The strong ridge that has been dominating our weather for the past several days is finally showing signs of weakness. Ahead of the front, an increase in winds and cooler temperatures aloft will help to mix valley inversions. The presence of lingering cold air trapped in some valleys, along with a lack of cloud ice ahead of the main cold front, could result in brief periods of freezing rain.
Currently, broad upper level ridge in place across the western CONUS, with a subtle embedded wave moving east-southeast across the Northern Plains. Strong S/WV trough entering the Pacific Northwest tonight, will move east across northern MT Wed, then into North Dakota tomorrow night.
A dome of high pressure was directly overhead this afternoon according to model analyses. The pattern finally begins to evolve tonight into Wednesday as a mid-level trough moves over the Pacific Northwest late tonight, then across the northern Rockies Wednesday. This will drive the ridge axis to the east causing flow aloft to shift to the southwest. High clouds increase across the region on Wednesday night as the closed low circulation which has spun off the southern California coast over the past several days moves northeastward across the northern Baja Peninsula.
Although not widespread, expect patchy to areas of fog/freezing fog to develop in a few areas.
232 PM PST Tue Dec 8 2020 Milder temperatures are expected through Wednesday with a ridge of high pressure overhead.
Upper level ridging will settle over the region tonight and into tomorrow, which will provide clear skies and light winds for all TAF sites throughout the period. Low level flow will veer and thermal ridging will expand across the region tomorrow with fcst low level temps expected to rise near seasonal extremes.
517 PM CST Tue Dec 8 2020 A large mean ridge of high pressure continued to build across the region today. Cirrus was blowing off the western ridge and spreading overhead. For tomorrow, even warmer conditions are expected with highs in the 60s and low 70s. A large upper level cut off low pressure system was located off of the southern California coast today.
309 PM CST Tue Dec 8 2020 Upper ridge firmly in place across the Rockies today with a significant closed low spinning just of the CA coast. The ridge has helped boost temperatures into the 50s and 60s this afternoon, despite broken thin cirrus overhead. Low temps tonight relatively mild in the lower to mid 30s. And then highs again tomorrow should reach the lower 60s, but record values are generally a still a few degrees higher, but overall another fantastic day, averaging 22 to 26 degrees ABOVE normal.
Atmospheric low level ridging influences along with dry nwly flow aloft will provide for sct patches of CI at times thru 09/24Z.