Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
308 AM MST Tue Jan 23 2018 A few locations have already dropped to near the low temperature forecast. So with light winds, clear skies, and fresh snow, have tended to go towards the lower side of guidance and temperatures a couple of degrees lower overnight tonight than what was produced by the CONSShort guidance. Have also lowered the high temperatures expected on Tuesday over much of the area. Across the far southern portion of the forecast area where snow amounts are lower with a degree of melting that has taken place today under sunny skies, expect temperatures near or even slightly warmer than guidance across that portion of the forecast area.
Lower level ridging is maintaining some inhibition to shower formation, and only a few weak showers have formed over the Florida Straits. Temperatures are in the lower 70s with dew points up near 70 degrees. Forecast - Winds will trend downwards today as the ridge moves out to sea, leaving a col just north of our area. Expect a relatively warm day with high temperatures in the upper 70s to near 80 with dew points in the lower 70s. The mid latitude low over the eastern United States will lift out into eastern Canada over the next couple of days and a healthy high pressure system will slide eastward across the southern United States.
Cold frontal passage this afternoon will bring a greater potential for rain to potential mix with snow, particularly at MBS.
/issued 325 AM CST Tue Jan 23 2018/ Temperatures this morning are in the low to mid 40s with some mid-level cloudiness in northern areas due to the proximity of an upper-level low to our north. The influence of this upper low will be gone by midday, with any remaining cloud cover exiting to the northeast with it.
1030 AM EST Tue Jan 23 2018 Large storm system blanketing much of the CONUS east of the MS River Valley cranking a cold front into the region. Sfc dewpoints have climbed into the U60s/L70s areawide, though the highest values over the Space/Treasure Coasts and Lake-O regions have dense mid/upr lvl cloud cover that will impede sfc heating/destabilization. Cannot completely rule out deep convection over the Treasure Coast/Lake-O region as the high sfc dewpoints could provide enough instability if this area is clipped by the nrn edge of a bull's eye of unstable air over south FL/FL Keys. Light to gentle S/SW breeze ahead of an approaching cold front will veer to N/NW from Cape Canaveral northward by sunset.
645 AM EST Tue Jan 23 2018 Aviation A low pressure system will track northeastward through Michigan today.
537 AM CST Tue Jan 23 2018 Low pressure will pull away from Arkansas today and allow high pressure to build into the area. Today Through Wednesday Night Low pressure will continue to move northeast away from Arkansas today. High pressure will build into the area. The high pressure will bring clear skies to the area today through Wednesday. The clouds in the north this morning will dissipate as the low moves away. After lows in the upper 20s to lower 30s tonight, lows will be in the lower 30s for Wednesday night.
950 AM EST Tue Jan 23 2018 Low pressure will track across the Central Great Lakes this morning dragging a cold front across the forecast area. Cold front is sweeping east across the forecast area and is currently across eastern Ohio and northwest Pennsylvania. Made some changes to the weather through the afternoon to reflect current radar trends and showers developing in the wake of the initial cold front. Low pressure centered over Lake Huron with the leading edge of the cold front just east of Erie PA. Models in good agreement tracking the low into SE Quebec by this evening, which is in line with current ht falls centered over SW Quebec. Can pick up a few inches overnight but should come to an end quickly Wednesday as high pressure builds in from the west.
616 AM EST Tue Jan 23 2018 Low pressure will track across the Central Great Lakes this morning dragging a cold front across the forecast area. Cold front is just east of the forecast area, but second wave of rain just moving into NW OH. Low pressure centered over Lake Huron with the leading edge of the cold front just east of Erie PA. Models in good agreement tracking the low into SE Quebec by this evening, which is in line with current ht falls centered over SW Quebec. Can pick up a few inches overnight but should come to an end quickly Wednesday as high pressure builds in from the west.
455 AM CST Tue Jan 23 2018 The Four State Region will be under the influence of high pressure on the surface and aloft for much of the rest of this week resulting in a fair weather pattern with near normal temperatures. Overnight lows the next couple of night will lower to near or below freezing.
458 AM MST Tue Jan 23 2018 High pressure over the Rockies this morning.
A cold front extending from central Ga to Tallahassee will push through the area this afternoon. Low clouds will persist through this afternoon as a cold front moves through the area. A cold front will move across the waters this afternoon.
Strong low pressure centered near Kansas City will move east to eastern Iowa late today and across the great lakes late tonight and Tuesday. The rest of the work week will be dry as high pressure pushes across the region. Strong low pressure was centered near Kansas City and was producing a moderate southerly flow across our area. The showers and isolated thunderstorms were ahead of a cold front which extended south across the lower Mississippi valley. Models indicate a secondary cold front will move our way by late evening.
Most of the shower activity across the region has diminished and many areas will remain dry for the rest of tonight as high pressure stays in place. Monday will be another dry day across South Florida as high pressure remains in control. /issued 338 PM EST Sun Jan 21 2018/ An area of high pressure will continue to dominate the weather across South Florida through tonight. On Tuesday, a strong area of low pressure will move into the Great Lakes region and the associated cold front will begin to push into South Florida during Tuesday afternoon.
A weak cold front will push through the region later in the week, bringing cooler temperatures, gusty winds, and possible rain and mountain snow showers. As this system exits a weak ridge of high pressure will begin to build over the West Coast, with weak northerly gradients in place at the surface. The ridge aloft will produce a warming trend through the next 2-3 days, with highs on Monday warming by around 3-6 degrees. Ridging aloft will build back in for Tuesday and bring continued warming.
Low pressure will strengthen over the Plains this evening and push northeast into the Great Lakes through early week, bringing showers and at times drizzle, with a slight chance for a rumble of thunder or two late tonight into Monday. The rest of the work week will be dry as high pressure pushes across the region. Warm advection will continue tonight ahead of the strengthening low pressure system over the south central Plains. May see a bit of a dry slot lull early Monday night before the upper low moves in and showers increase again. The remainder of the short term will be dry as high pressure builds into the area.
High pressure aloft will translates east across the region tonight through early Monday. High pressure aloft will return midweek with a second stronger and colder storm expected late in the week. Stable high pressure will press east across Utah and southwest Wyoming later tonight through early Monday morning. The upper ridge will eventually slide east over Utah midweek ahead of what looks to be a rather cold/energetic trough for the end of the week.
A strong area of low pressure currently over northeastern Kansas will slowly track northeastward toward Chicago today through tonight. An upper level trough will cross the Northern Plains on Tuesday with light pcpn possible along the ND/SD border. The NAM, along with the ARW and NMM support the possibility of light pcpn with this trough.
The cold front has moved east of the I-35 corridor and will continue through the remainder of the southeast CWA before sunrise. Highs in the low to mid 60s across the Hill Country and upper 60s to around 70 elsewhere. Highs rebound back into the low to mid 60s Tuesday under mostly sunny skies.
Even then, traffic, possible pre- treatment, and warm sfc temps in the low 30s have resulted in mainly wet roadways this afternoon, although there are still some slippery spots being reported from the SD DOT webpage.
257 AM MST Mon Jan 22 2018 Water Vapor shows upper low over north central Kansas. Upper level ridge builds across the northern plains through the middle of the week, with dry weather and warm temperatures.
Brief period of dry weather as high pressure rebuilds over the area later Monday and Tuesday.
Much cooler temperatures continue, with a widespread freeze this morning. A weather system passing north of the area will then bring cooler air and gusty winds late in the week. The Freeze Warning is working out well this morning, with most locations around the greater Tucson area near or below freezing already, and extending into some lower desert areas. After a chilly start, modest ridging from the west will kick- start our warming trend today. We could see some locations touch freezing again around Tucson and some lower desert locations, but it shouldn't be as widespread, so we won't extend the Freeze Warning. A trough will push through the region late in the week, but with the main storm track retreating northward again we will only see some gusty winds and about 10 degrees of cooling.
/issued 228 PM EST Sun Jan 21 2018/ High pressure currently centered overhead will shift offshore overnight in advance of a cold front. High pressure builds in quickly behind the front. NListemaa The cold front that brings rainfall during the short-term forecast period will have departed the area by Tuesday with drier air filtering into the region. High pressure will remain in control through the remainder of the work week.
After that, the question becomes how warm we get by mid to late week as midlevel ridging dominates the forecast.
Currently, deformation zone col centered over central ND with strong areas of low pressure northwest and south-southeast, and high pressure centers northeast and southwest. Eventually tonight winds will transition to westerly from west to east along with increasing mid to upper level clouds as a mid level S/WV trough moves east into the region.
225 AM EST Mon Jan 22 2018 High pressure remains centered off the Mid Atlantic coast through today. A cold front crosses the region Tuesday morning and moves well off the coast by Tuesday night.
251 AM EST Mon Jan 22 2018 A warm front pushing slowly northward across the area will bring occasional light rain or drizzle into early Monday. A potent area of low pressure moving across the Great Lakes will push a trailing cold front through Pennsylvania on Tuesday.
358 AM CST Mon Jan 22 2018 Upper level low pressure system was over KS and will affect areas south of us. KS upper level low will produce north or northeast winds today and tonight across much of the Red River Valley. Short wavelength upper ridge from MT to SASK will move into the the area this afternoon and tonight. Low level moist layer was relatively shallow and so will leave flurries/light freezing drizzle out of the forecast for today and tonight. 500 mb short wave trough will move east-southeast into eastern ND and northwestern Minnesota Tuesday afternoon and evening.
WV imagery indicates a strong closed off upper level low moving eastward across western Kansas. Near the surface, a strengthening area of low pressure is lifting northeast across eastern Kansas. 12Z models including the NMMB/ARW and NAM have shifted the track of this low a bit south and east. Went with cooler guidance, where the heavier snowfall is expected. Beyond this, high pressure will build in Tuesday with much more tranquil conditions and less wind.
The upper low is currently over southeastern Colorado with continued diffluence aloft over eastern Colorado helping to bring heavier snowfall over those areas. Further west, snow is winding down over the mountains as well as the northern urban corridor with the increase in northerly winds downsloping off the Cheyenne Ridge. Temperatures will likely stay in the low 30s over most of the eastern plains, especially where the higher snow amounts are found, while along the urban corridor it should reach into the 40s with the help of the west-northwesterly winds.
347 AM CST Mon Jan 22 2018 Showers and storms are ongoing in a band stretching from the Missouri Bootheel southward into central Louisiana along a cold front.
A cold front is exiting the forecast area with just some lingering showers mainly over the eastern mountains for the rest of tonight.
315 AM EST Mon Jan 22 2018 Warm temperatures and patchy light rain will be interrupted by a cold front tonight. probabilities, albeit for light showers, will shift north of I 80 after daybreak in accordance with warm front positioning. TThe Plains low is still projected to dig across the Great Lakes by early Tuesday with Monday night cold frontal passage for the Upper Ohio. Seasonable temperature in the wake of the front is expected to change rain showers to snow on Tuesday with upper support via the crossing mid level trough.
The next wave of precip is focused on the nose of the low level jet. Medium Lingering mid level cyclonic flow and lower level troughing will keep precip chances going the morning hours, esp in the early/mid morning time frame in the eastern cwa.
356 AM CST Mon Jan 22 2018 /Today and Tonight/ Drier and slightly cooler air will filter into the region today behind a cold front.
Snow has ended across northern NM as the closed upper low responsible for the snow moves east over the Central Plains.
As the actual front pushes through here late tonight and tomorrow morning, cooler temperatures will be felt.
920 PM PST Sun Jan 21 2018 At 9 PM PST, water vapor satellite showed an upper-level trough moving across northern California, with northwest flow aloft across southern California. Portions of the High Desert will dip into the upper 20s overnight, with some high elevation mountain cities lowering into the teens.
1128 PM CST Sun Jan 21 2018 The main story for the next day will be developing low pressure system across the central Plains. This low will bring heavy snow and strong winds to north central Nebraska through Monday afternoon.
The cold front is edging toward TYR now and will bring a return to VFR from W to E overnight. Low level shear is very strong ahead of the cold front/dryline merger which was located just west of our CWA as of 10pm. Otherwise, did increase pops along and ahead of the approaching cold front for the remainder of the night.
/Issued 445 PM CST Sun Jan 21 2018/ The upper level low has moved from the four corners area to the northwest corner of the Panhandles. The low will skim over the northern Panhandles and place the area in northwest flow aloft. As the low lifts eastward, ridging will begin to fill into the western CONUS and maintain the dry northwest flow through the remainder of the week.
Besides the lowering flight conditions, strengthening low-level jet will produce strong and gusty winds at TYS/CHA in the afternoon and evening.
Anticipate MVFR/IFR conditions tonight as a cold front approaches from the NW, with patchy fog to areas of fog reducing visibilities overnight and low cloud deck overhead.
1130 PM CST Sun Jan 21 2018 Showers and thunderstorms continue to develop in advance of an approaching cold front that will move through the state tonight and clear all terminals by early Monday morning. Moisture wrapping around the upper low will spread low clouds across the north Monday afternoon. Expect more organized and widespread SHRA/TSRA to develop west of AR late this afternoon into the early evening hrs along a pre-frontal trough. weak tornadoes along the leading edge of the convective line given this high forecast SRH.
451 AM EST Mon Jan 22 2018 A strong cold front (associated with a cold-core upper-level low) is moving across the midwest and into the Mississippi River Valley, spawning severe weather across eastern Texas, Arkansas and Missouri. The aforementioned synoptic systems will continue shifting eastward, but a left-over belt of moisture will linger off the Straits of Florida before pivoting northwest ahead of a cold front approaching the northeast gulf coast. Tonight, the cold front moves into NW Florida, pushing shower activity and a few thunderstorms ahead of it.
Only some minor tweaks to sky, PoP and weather grids were made to address another night of possible freezing fog in the river valleys and to address the weak system moving through tomorrow which may bring some light snowfall to southern areas. Bigelbach PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: A narrow upper ridge passes over eastern Montana tonight for a continuation of clear skies resulting in seasonally cold minimum temperatures. Light wind will not interfere much with mixing, therefore patchy freezing fog is again possible. By Monday morning clouds will move in from the west as a result of an upper trough and weak cold front. Slightly increased winds means slightly warmer highs, but just above normal.
Increasing low-level jet ahead of a deep upper trough over the mid-west will continue to enhance the downslope winds with a Mountain Wave event anticipated over the Mountains, especially far eastern Tennessee Mountains and foothills. May see rain showers change over to flurries across the highest peaks before ending.
A cold front located in east Texas this morning will continue moving east with sh/ts out ahead of the boundary. This should help in the lowering of severe chances with exception to the northern gulf. The actual cold front, will take from noon at Baton Rouge until just after dark to reach Pascagoula.
232 AM EST Mon Jan 22 2018 Warm today, cold front later this evening/tonight. Cooler and windy behind the front. Mid level waves pass through mid week, but turning warmer again late week. Cold front will be east of the forecast area to start the period, with cold air surging in behind the front. Have a non- diurnal temperature trend in at higher elevations Tuesday, with a transition to from rain to snow as an upper level low crosses the Great Lakes. Across the lowlands, we should see mostly rain showers Tuesday before changing over to snow through the late afternoon and evening.
Precip will continue to exit Northwest Arkansas as a cold front/dryline pushes through the CWA. Showers and thunderstorms continue to lift northeast across far Eastern and Southeast Oklahoma as well as over Northwest Arkansas ahead of a cold front/dryline that is just starting to enter into Eastern Oklahoma. showers and thunderstorms will continue to push across far Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas over the next few hours as the cold front/dryline makes its way eastward through the CWA. The cold front/dryline looks to be exiting Northwest Arkansas during the midnight-2am time frame with precip exiting ahead of the boundary. scattering mid/high clouds are forecast with the potential for increasing low clouds over Northeast Oklahoma as the upper level low moves east northeast into/through Kansas late tonight and Monday.
As the low slides east tonight, a cold airmass will slide into the region dropping temperatures into the upper 20s. This may allow for some change over or mix with snow or freezing rain. If the change over occurs, a glaze of ice may occur on elevated surfaces however confidence is on the low side for this currently.
02 UTC surface analysis shows an area of high pressure NE of the region over Middle Georgia. The beginning signs of stronger return flow off the Gulf was present over the Central and Western Gulf, while over the Eastern Gulf, the low level flow was fairly light. One thing in favor of lower clouds/fog is the very cool waters over Apalachee Bay (water temps are in the low 50s), and not much additional airmass modification would be necessary for stratus to develop later tonight and advect inland once the southerly flow picks up. The cold front will move into our southeast Alabama and eastern Florida Panhandle late Monday afternoon. The highest chances for marginally severe wind gusts will be west of a line from Dothan to Panama City in the afternoon and early evening.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 40 49 30 50 / 80 10 10 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 41 46 29 46 / 80 10 10 10 Oak Ridge, TN 41 46 29 47 / 90 10 10 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 40 46 27 43 / 80 30 20 10.
Went with cooler guidance, where the heavier snowfall is expected. Beyond this, high pressure will build in Tuesday with much more tranquil conditions and less wind.
Highs Tuesday will run 8-10 degrees cooler as a result of the frontal passage.
1217 AM EST Mon Jan 22 2018 Warming temperatures and patchy light rain will be interrupted by a Monday night cold front. probabilities, albeit still light, will shift north of I 80 after daybreak in accordance with warm front positioning. The Plains low is still projected to dig across the Great Lakes by early Tuesday with Monday night cold frontal passage for the Upper Ohio. Seasonable temperature in the wake of the front is expected to change rain showers to snow on Tuesday with upper support via the crossing mid level trough.
High pressure aloft will translate east across the region tonight through early Monday. High pressure aloft will return midweek with a second stronger and colder storm expected late in the week. Stable high pressure will press east across Utah and southwest Wyoming later tonight through early Monday morning. The upper ridge will eventually slide east over Utah midweek ahead of what looks to be a rather cold/energetic trough for the end of the week.
330 AM EST Mon Jan 22 2018 Temperatures will remain mild, through Tuesday, along with periods of rain, along and ahead of an approaching cold front. Readings remain near or just above freezing at this time over parts of Oneida, Madison, Chenango, and Otsego counties. However, as boundary layer warm advection continues, we expect a slow upward trend in temperatures, and a lessening threat of any freezing rain/drizzle with time. Tonight and Tuesday, as the main cyclone tracks from the central Great Lakes region up through the St. Lawrence Valley, a trailing cold front will approach, and then swing across CNY/NEPA. Cold front pushes into eastern NY and PA and slows as a wave moves northeast.
302 AM EST Mon Jan 22 2018 Bowling ball upper low making its way across Kansas will catch up to its sfc reflection later today, and the system will become vertically stacked over NW Missouri this evening before heading ENE into the Great Lakes tonight. Not much temp recovery is expected on Tuesday under lingering upper trofiness behind the departing cyclone. Most of the wraparound moisture will stay to our north, but held on to slight chance POPs over the Bluegrass region late in the day as the low-level flow turns more northwesterly.
159 AM EST Mon Jan 22 2018 Warm today, cold front later this evening/tonight. Cooler and windy behind the front. Mid level waves pass through mid week, but turning warmer again late week. A strong cold front passes Monday night. Models show a mature low pressure system crossing the Great Lakes region from the southwest, while a strong cold front trails southeast of the low. In addition, models show h850 winds reaching 50-60 knots ahead of the cold front. By Tuesday, the wrap around moisture of the cyclone could produce some precipitation across northern portions of southeast OH and WV.
Surface analysis shows the dry line associated with the system now getting into western Arkansas with cold front trailing several hours behind. Cooler and drier air will quickly overspread the state in the wake of this system but air mass will be of Pacific origin so even though temperatures will be cooler, readings will still average close or a few degrees above normal. Upper low sitting over central Kansas this morning is expected to pivot to the northeast today. High pressure will dominate for Tuesday.