Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Should see a couple areas of fog due to the high boundary layer moisture on the plains, but lingering convection and some cloudiness should keep the early morning fog coverage limited. A warmer and drier day will occur over the forecast area as a ridge of high pressure noses in from the southwest. Temperatures will warm aloft as the thermal ridge builds in, resulting in high temperatures about 8-9F warmer across the plains. Expect temperatures to be a degree or two cooler than today's readings over the northern half of the forecast area, while areas south will actually be warmer as the cool front slowly drops south.
Models show weak ridging trying to establish in the mid/upper levels, but the light surface winds will allow for sea breeze circulations to develop and bring showers and another round of afternoon thunderstorms each day.
An upper level ridge will keep building over northern and central Nevada. This will bring much warmer temperatures by the weekend. The warmer temperatures will help to bring a rise in area creeks and streams due to snowmelt.
537 AM EDT THU JUN 2 2016 A plume of warm and moist air will flow northward into Pennsylvania ahead of a relatively weak cold front.
424 AM EDT THU JUN 2 2016 A cold front located over western Indiana early this morning will reach central portions of northern Ohio late this morning. The weakening cold front should clear northwest Pennsylvania late this afternoon into early evening.
The flood watch will remain in effect until 00Z, but may need to be extended through Friday across SE OK depending on the progression of the mid to upper low now moving over the Big Bend of TX.
Increasing wly flow and approaching cold front will lead to increasing west wind by the afternoon hours with many areas breezy to even windy. Increased fire danger with lower rh's and warmer temps is discussed in the fire wx segment.
The synoptic pattern early this morning features broad, but weak southwesterly flow over the Ohio Valley on the periphery of a subtropical ridge off the Southeast coast. Showers and thunderstorms will wane in coverage tonight with the loss of heating, but still will likely see a few linger through the night with the weak cold front still in the area. Overnight lows will dip into the low to mid 60s. However, weak waves rounding the periphery of the subtropical ridge combined with daytime instability will help foster additional thunderstorm development Friday afternoon. It appears the subtropical ridge will have strengthened a bit on Friday, which may help limit coverage of thunderstorms somewhat compared to today. Nevertheless, still feel that 30-50 pops look good, with the highest threat across southern KY nearest to the front.
330 AM CDT THU JUN 2 2016 Ridging over the northeast conus ahead of trough over the great lakes. A ridge over the desert southwest with broad weak ridging into central Canada. Closed low over the gulf of Alaska with a trough into the Pacific Northwest.
Models indicate the upper trough axis, which satellite imagery indicates is currently over the Big Bend, will continue to slowly move over and then east of West Central Texas, during the next 24 hours.
227 AM EDT THU JUN 2 2016 A weak pressure trough will remain in the forecast area during the rest of the week. A slow moving cold front will approach over the weekend.
438 AM EDT THU JUN 2 2016 Ridge of high pressure slides east of the North Country this morning followed by a weak cold front that will cross the area this evening into the first half of Friday with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms.
147 AM EDT THU JUN 2 2016 A weak cold front will slowly cross the Ohio Valley tonight into Thursday. An upper trough developing over the Great Lakes will result in unsettled weather and cooler than normal temperatures for the weekend. Showers with isolated thunderstorms ahead of a weak cold front will continue to move east-northeast through the overnight hours. Some mid-level energy will move overhead Thursday into Friday, rounding the periphery of a weakening ridge to our southeast. A cooler and less humid air mass will filter into the area throughout this timeframe, with daytime highs in the lower 80s on Thursday and upper 70s to lower 80s on Friday.
The upper low over the Trans Pecos region has transitioned to a broad open wave trough whose positive tilted axis lays over the western half of the state. The warm core mid-upper low sitting sitting over the forecast area for a good day or so will eventually shear out over the weekend (high confidence mention).
414 AM CDT THU JUN 2 2016 A closed upper low over the Panhandles and west Texas will track slowly east and south into central Texas by 00Z Friday. Drier conditions expected after 06Z Friday as the closed upper low continues to pull further and further east away from the forecast area. An upper high over southern California and the southwestern states Friday will build eastward towards the Panhandles allowing for a drier northeasterly to northerly upper flow.
Stacked low pressure currently over Texas will slowly begin to migrate off to the east, shifting our local winds from southwest to southerly. High temperatures will continue to run above normal as surface ridging will continue through the weekend. Expect highs area wide in the mid 90's, particularly north of I-10, cooler near the coast. Lows in the lower 70's.
Impacts of upper low are occurring now, and will continue through most of the morning into the early afternoon, the latter over the eastern portions of the CWFA. If upper low is progged to be where it is now forecast to go, we may not see much if any rainfall Friday over the southwestern portions of the area.
359 AM EDT THU JUN 2 2016 A cold front will clear the area this morning with slightly cooler and less humid conditions in store into Friday night.
At upper levels, Kentucky sits in a split flow regime with a upper low in the northern stream lifting east-northeast across the Great Lakes region and a nearly stationary southern stream upper low over Texas. The northern stream upper low is expected to push into Quebec this afternoon, draping a cold frontal boundary somewhere along the northern Kentucky border. At the surface, the cold front will shift towards northeast Kentucky this afternoon providing a focus for potentially stronger storms. Temperatures will be a few degrees cooler than yesterday with afternoon highs in the lower 80s both today and Friday.
Further north, weak high pressure will influence the weather today bringing slightly less humid air to the region along with mainly high level cloud cover at times with afternoon temperatures warming into the lower 80s over most of the forecast area. Showers and thunderstorms in vicinity of a cold front expected to move through the region this weekend.
325 AM CDT THU JUN 2 2016 Cut-off upper low has drifted ewd into the TX panhandle over the last 24 hours and has continued to bring waves of convection to much of TX.
204 AM EDT THU JUN 2 2016 Cooler and drier air will move in overnight behind a cold frontal boundary that will have moved into the Lower Great Lakes by daybreak. Highs on Thursday will be in the upper 70s to the lower 80s except lower 70s near Lake Michigan. Otrws sfc ridging blds ewd fm the plains overnight as drying overspreads the area. Flat wrly flow aloft in wake of shrt term sys buckles sigly into Sat in response to stg upstream ridge dvlpmnt acrs the wrn US. Beyond that upr pattn looks remarkably quite locally inbtwn persisting ern Canada mean troughing and Rockies dominant upr ridging w/a rtn of dry wx and moderating temps xpcd.
645 AM EDT THU JUN 2 2016 A cold front will clear the area this morning with slightly cooler and less humid conditions in store into Friday night.
355 AM EDT THU JUN 2 2016 At upper levels, Kentucky sits in a split flow regime with a upper low in the northern stream lifting east-northeast across the Great Lakes region and a nearly stationary southern stream upper low over Texas. The northern stream upper low is expected to push into Quebec this afternoon, draping a cold frontal boundary somewhere along the northern Kentucky border. At the surface, the cold front will shift towards northeast Kentucky this afternoon providing a focus for potentially stronger storms. Temperatures will be a few degrees cooler than yesterday with afternoon highs in the lower 80s both today and Friday.
349 AM EDT THU JUN 2 2016 A ridge of high pressure over Pennsylvania will provide fair and warm weather this evening over most of the area. Increasing moisture will flow northward into Pennsylvania for Thursday and Friday ahead of a weakening cold front moving out of the Great Lakes.
312 AM CDT THU JUN 2 2016 Split flow aloft was seen over the central plains per the 07Z water vapor imagery with an upper low north of MN and a second upper low drifting east across TX. Surface obs showed the high pressure system centered over the central plains as it propagates east and south. The deeper low level moisture is also expected to remain mainly to the south of the forecast area as the ridge passes to the east of KS. This is not expected to make a big impact to insolation and with forecast soundings showing the boundary layer mixing to 800MB, highs should be in the lower 80s for most areas.
350 AM CDT THU JUN 2 2016 Early morning sfc analysis shows the region remaining between high pressure over the sern CONUS and low pressure over TX. Local 88Ds show showers and a storm or two beginning to pop up over our TX zones last hour as this higher moisture interacts with a low- level convergence zone. High POPs then linger into the weekend as the low approaches.
(Issued 1030 AM CDT TUE SEP 13 2016) Sfc ridging anchored over the Virginias this morning is making for E/SE flow across the area, with an approaching cold front over the Central Plains to our west. A convergence axis exists on the western periphery of the ridge to our east, which will set the stage for widely scattered convection developing later today (much like yesterday) without a major pattern change over the past 24 hours.
340 PM EDT TUE SEP 13 2016 Moisture will be directed into the forecast area in the easterly flow between high pressure off the Mid-Atlantic coast and low pressure in the north Florida area through much of the week. Visible imagery shows an impressive low pressure system lifting northward along the northeast coast of Florida with well defined convective bands spiraling around the center. This system is very close to having the organization required of a tropical cyclone.
308 PM CDT TUE SEP 13 2016 Cloudy weather in the Midwest today with warm temperatures is slowly giving way to a weak cold front moving across the region. Although this cold front is scheduled to move through, showers and thunderstorms at this moment are limited by weak ascent, weak shear, and ultimately a decent cap over the region. An upper low, currently centered over California and Nevada, will open on Wednesday and slowly track northeast.
215 PM CDT TUE SEP 13 2016 Upper level low over the Great Basin coupled with high pressure across northern Mexico and extending toward the Bahamas will result in southwesterly flow aloft. That coupled with the cold front that is draped across the area is helping to initiate convection across the northeastern zones.
The exception being the models are showing an increase in mid and upper level subtropical ridging building in from Mexico.
Expect VFR conditions to prevail the rest of the afternoon into this evening as the 500mb low across northern Mexico and a 500mb low/trough across the eastern Gulf of Mexico continues to provide subsidence across deep south Texas. /issued 449 AM CDT TUE SEP 13 2016/ SHORT TERM (Today through Wednesday): Broad high pressure will continue to dominate the overall weather pattern over region. a weak upper level low continues to meander across the Louisiana coastline and is expected to slowly drift south over the open Gulf water before generally filling in and dissipating. and warmer than normal lows.
1132 AM MDT TUE SEP 13 2016 UPDATED AVIATION Satellite imagery this morning shows a closed upper level low centered over the Western Great Basin with axis of deformation extending from it NE across SW and Central MT.
Morning lows, however, will be cold with the potential for freezing temperatures tonight. The warm and dry weather will likely come to an end sometime this weekend as a cold front moves through the region.
401 PM CDT TUE SEP 13 2016 Latest WV imagery and UA analysis shows low pres over the wrn CONUS with a broad low amplitude ridge downstream acrs the ern US. Moisture profile over the area per KLCH 12Z sounding shows decent moisture in the lower and mid lvls with drier air aloft, and the latest GPS-met data indicates precip water remains around 1. At the sfc, a weak ridge of high pres extends fm the Mid Atlantic states toward E TX, while a weak trough extends acrs the cntl and ern Gulf. Another warm and muggy night is on tap with overnight lows again expected to reach the lower to middle 70s.
211 PM MDT TUE SEP 13 2016 20z surface analysis had high pressure over the Dakotas. Water vapour loop showed upper low over NV with weak ridging developing ahead of it over the Plains states. This upper low will be the main weather concern in the short term. Wednesday, upper low moves into southwest MT with lee trough / low developing over WY. Wednesday night, upper low lifts out as weakening upper trough.
Warmer conditions on the way, but so is some precipiation. Upper pattern showing trough closing off over the Desert SW today while heights have risen gradually over eastern Montana. Warm and moist airmass to our south will be brought north as upper low pushes northeast during the period. Wednesday, clouds will begin to increase across the CWA from the south as the upper low moves across eastern Idaho. Models portray showers/isolated thunderstorms to remain over the higher terrain under the upper low over southwest Montana and into the central Rockies. Continued southerly flow over eastern Montana will help to nudge temperatures into the low to mid 70s across the area. Wednesday Night, the upper low drifts east but weakens.
323 PM CDT TUE SEP 13 2016 The pattern aloft featured southwest flow across the central plains ahead of a close low pressure system in CA. At the surface, the cold frontal boundary was located to our south across southeast Kansas. The western upper low pressure system moves into the north central Rockies Wednesday night and lift increases across the plains in increasing dynamics ahead of the approaching system.
327 PM CDT TUE SEP 13 2016 Cold front continues to make slow progress into South Central KS at this time, located generally along the the KS Turnpike. Upper low currently over the west coast will slowly lift to the NE across the rockies as an open wave for Wed night through Thu. Earlier model runs suggested a ridge of high pressure would drop south across the plains for the weekend. Ketcham A cold front will push slowly southward across the region for today and tonight. A line of showers/thunderstorms will be possible over southeast Kansas for this afternoon/evening along and ahead of the cold front.
as weak high pressure is situated just off the Mid Atlantic coast. A cold front crosses the area late Wednesday night.
358 PM EDT TUE SEP 13 2016 An area of low pressure will move north/northwest across central and northeastern Florida through tonight with unsettled weather across much of South Florida. In its wake, high pressure will build at the surface and aloft allowing for a return to a more typical late summertime pattern. These showers and thunderstorms have been in response to an area of low pressure tracking north/northwest across the central and northeast Florida coast and a trough of low pressure located across the Lake Okeechobee region.
142 PM EDT TUE SEP 13 2016 High pressure through Wednesday. A weak cold front crosses Wednesday night.
157 PM EDT TUE SEP 13 2016 Aviation A cold front will track slowly southeast through the Great Lakes region today and tonight.
139 PM EDT Tue Sep 13 2016 High pressure will drift east while a cold front moves into the region late tonight and Wednesday. Highs today will reach the lower 80s and lows tonight will remain in the 60s.
Canadian high pressure built in across the northern plains today as a cold front sagged slowly across the CWA.
558 PM EDT Tue Sep 13 2016 High pressure should maintain dry weather tonight before a crossing cold front returns scattered showers and thunderstorms to the region Wednesday. High pressure should maintain dry weather tonight as it slides east of the area. A cold front is progged for approach and passage Wednesday.
251 PM PDT TUE SEP 13 2016 Showers and isolated thunderstorms will begin to wind down into this evening as an area of low pressure exits the region. Upper level low remains over the Sierra and northwest Nevada this afternoon with the deformation axis wrapping around the northeast side of the low. Stronger storms are forming in east-central Nevada as a vort max wraps around the low.
143 PM EDT TUE SEP 13 2016 High pressure will extend south into the area through Wednesday night.
showers and thunderstorms have persisted much of the day across Esmeralda county fueled by strong forcing in the vicinity of the closed low.
RAOB from NKX showed a very strong 10 degree inversion, but the VBG sounding showed a much weaker 5 degree inversion which reflects the cooler air coming in from the trough and what we should be seeing further south through the day. Onshore flow will remain in place into late week as the trough lingers, but a ridge of high pressure centered near 32N and 136W, or about 1000 miles northwest of Los Angeles, will start to gradually build in.
clouds over the lower elevations were gradually breaking up. Other storms coming off the mtns onto the plains will encounter much more stable air and the storms should weaken as they move onto the lower elevations.
335 PM EDT TUE SEP 13 2016 An area of low pressure over quebec will continue to move eastward overnight. This will allow a cold front to sag southward across the region on Wednesday.
Two areas of low pressure persist north of the Florida Keys, one southeast of Daytona Beach, the other in the central Gulf of Mexico. The Florida Keys are within the ridge axis which is trying to reclaim ground from the lower pressure moving northwest. Water vapor imagery places an upper tropospheric trough to our west, with anticyclonic curvature aloft. The weak anticyclonic flow at the surface, in combination with dry layers in the lower troposphere normally associated with southerly flow, has squelched the ability for moist convection. By tomorrow, the low level ridge will build in earnest north of the Keys, ushering in drier air in the lower levels, weak inhibition, and gentle to moderate east-southeasterlies. On this date in Florida Keys weather history, in 1876, the high temperature in Key West was 93 degrees.
A weak cold front will bring chances for rain tonight and Wednesday, but a stronger system will bring better chances for rain during the early part of the weekend. Hi Res Rapid Refresh has been consistent in bringing some scattered showers into the extreme northwest forecast area this evening in this higher dewpoint air. The remainder of the northwest forecast area as well as the far north will have to wait until overnight for some low rain chances, as a cold front approaches the area. Temperatures will be warmer tonight with the higher moisture content moving in.
High pressure overspreading the area from the northeast in the wake of the front should keep it dry Wednesday night with the exception of our far western counties.
Tomorrow the boundary becomes diffuse and low level flow becomes more uniform and veers to easterly and eventually southeasterly throughout the day in response to western CONUS upper low moving into the central Rockies.
For Wednesday, a weakening cold front will approach from the northwest. Some of the higher resolution models are indicating better coverage further north, but since these have been a little aggressive with the convection over the past few days, will stick with persistence. Highs will be a touch cooler with more clouds around, generally mid to upper 80s. Lows will range from the low to mid 60s. Both GFS and ECMWF have trended a bit slower and weaker with the trough arriving in the Ohio river valley this weekend.
/For the 18z TAFs/ A nearly stationary cold front extends from just west of Ponca City to just south of Woodward and Gage. Cold front extending from south of Amarillo to just south of Woodward and Cherokee will continue to move very slowly to the south through the day. Weak s/wv trough moving northward from southwest Texas will influence development of isolated showers and weak storms this morning and early afternoon ahead of the front, primarily across southwest Oklahoma and western north Texas. Will leave gridded forecast of POPs increasing from west to east tonight and front continues slow progress and s/wv trough drifts over southern portions of CWA.
With the low dewpoints and cold airmass, morning lows in the higher elevations of the high plains of eastern MT and western ND had some freezing temps, widespread upper 20s. Airmass modification today and guidance trends that are a bit cooler than yesterday, will go with mid 30s for the headline area. Return flow should/will not be strong enough on the backside of the high pressure to overcome the inversion until mixing occurs after sunrise. Return flow and warm advection increases Wednesday so temperatures will be warmer but still a bit below average. Upper low over the great basin will lift northeast Wednesday night reaching eastern MT by morning.
A weak cold front will approach the area tomorrow, albeit with little fanfare. Rain chances may be a little higher over the northeast AR and the MO Bootheel in proximity to the approaching cold front, but coverage should remain limited.
259 PM CDT TUE SEP 13 2016 245 PM CDT A cold front lies across southern WI through eastern IA and is slowly pushing southeast. Clouds are slow to clear, but cooler air moves in behind the cold front.
Combine that with a ridge aloft and convection will likely be highly dependent on diurnal conditions such as the lake/sea breeze and then outflow interactions. With less cloud cover, a few less storms, and h925 temps around 23-25 C much of the area will get into the lower 90s and can not rule out a few locations possibly touching the mid 90s. ECMWF continues to show the ridge over the sern CONUS getting suppressed late this week and through the weekend while the GFS has changed course and now rebuilds the ridge over the northern Gulf coast states.
/ISSUED 324 AM CDT TUE SEP 13 2016/ The upper level ridge over the region will start to weaken as a an upper level low digs into northern California.
310 PM EDT TUE SEP 13 2016 High pressure will extend south into the area through Wednesday night.
Late this afternoon and into the evening scattered rain showers will gradually diminish in coverage as a trough axis moves southeastward into the central Great Lakes. Behind the trough, high pressure will build in from the Dakotas. Skies will be sunny across the Northland on Wednesday with high pressure in place over MN. The ridge will move east allowing a southerly flow to develop pushing in warmer air along with increasing moisture.
509 PM EDT TUE SEP 13 2016 Moisture will be directed into the forecast area in the easterly flow between high pressure off the Mid-Atlantic coast and low pressure in the north Florida area through much of the week. Visible imagery shows an impressive low pressure system lifting northward along the northeast coast of Florida with well defined convective bands spiraling around the center. This system is very close to having the organization required of a tropical cyclone.
214 PM CDT TUE SEP 13 2016 Showers and thunderstorms have pushed east of the area this morning with the cold front. Northwest winds and CAA will persist for the rest of today as high pressure advances into the northern Plains. The longer term concern is the development/movement of the upper trough late in the week and into the weekend followed by moderating temperatures.