Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
945 PM CDT Tue Jun 14 2022 High pressure remains in control across the region this evening both at the surface and aloft yielding another warm, but quiet weather night. Somewhat higher mid level moisture wrapping around the southern and western periphery of the upper level ridge may allow very isolated showers or thunderstorms to develop across south central Louisiana tomorrow afternoon during peak heating, but the majority of the region will remain hot and dry.
This is all in association with a rather large upper-level ridge parked squarely over the SE CONUS. With this ridge remaining in control for tomorrow, conditions look similar for tomorrow. A mid/upper level ridge over the southeastern U. At the surface, the Atlantic ridge axis sits across the central Florida peninsula with rather light flow becoming west/northwest in the afternoon as the sea breeze kicks in. Temperatures will also run quite warm with the ridge aloft.
Temperatures this afternoon were generally in the lower 90s across the region with mid 90s in the urban centers. Upper level ridge axis will continue to drive our overall pattern with another hot day expected. While readings may start off in the mid-upper 70s in the morning, the latest data suggests that these dewpoint reading will drop into the upper 60s to the lower 70s by the afternoon.
The slightly less humid air has resulted in 9 PM temps 1 to 3 degrees cooler than 24 hours ago. The upper level ridge axis is now east of the region which has been part of the reason for the drier air this afternoon. The ridge axis will remain east of the region tonight with dry weather and above normal temperatures continuing. Low temperatures Wednesday morning will be in the low to mid 70s. Wednesday night will see more dry and hot weather as the ridge axis remains to our east.
Elsewhere, conditions are dry and muggy across east-central Florida with temperatures in the low 80s. (Previous Discussion) Deep ridging from the mid- levels down to the surface will remain anchored over the Southeast US, maintaining the oppressively hot week and heat headlines stretching from FL to Great Lakes. Temperatures tomorrow will rise to the hottest so far this week, reaching the low 90s at the coast and 96-98 degrees, sending the heat index to 105-107, just sub-Heat Advisory criteria.
/issued 246 PM CDT Tue Jun 14 2022/ SHORT TERM (Tonight through Wednesday Night):Inverted trough is still situated over the Big Bend of Texas threatening to bring us some light showers.
520 PM MDT Tue Jun 14 2022 H5 trough remains centered just to the north across northern MT, with impulses wrapping around the south side into WY. The trough will begin to rotate out to the east tonight, taking along the threat for more shower activity for western WY. As the trough sweeps east Wednesday, ridging begins to build in behind, will bring recovering temperatures to the state, with highs reaching back into the 70s east of the divide, and low to mid 60s west of the divide and in the western valleys.
911 PM EDT Tue Jun 14 2022 A weak front will linger around the Mid-Atlantic region through Wednesday while high pressure builds to the northeast and southwest.
Some patchy smoke expected tonight over northern New Mexico with warmer than normal low temperatures area wide.
657 PM EDT Tue Jun 14 2022 A weak back door cold front will move through portions of central NC tonight.
As the upper-level ridge is still persistent in the region tomorrow, conditions remain the same: torrid temperatures, high dewpoints, clear skies, light winds. Temperatures this afternoon were generally in the lower 90s across the region with mid 90s in the urban centers. Upper level ridge axis will continue to drive our overall pattern with another hot day expected. While readings may start off in the mid-upper 70s in the morning, the latest data suggests that these dewpoint reading will drop into the upper 60s to the lower 70s by the afternoon.
640 PM CDT Tue Jun 14 2022 (Tonight) A broad dome of high pressure is centered over the region and just to the NE of the forecast area attm. A short wave trough embedded along the SE-S side of the upper ridge is helping to drive convective development to our E-SE this afternoon.
An upper ridge building to our west will help temperatures will get very warm during the middle of the week, but an afternoon thunderstorm is still possible almost each day until a cold front passes through late in the week. High pressure should provide a fair and dry weekend. However, western Pa will remain in "ring of fire" on the edge of Grt Lks upper ridge, with high pwats and substantial instability even late tonight. Guidance supports low temps ranging from the low 50s over the mountains north of KIPT, where air mass is the driest, to the low and mid 60s over the southern tier counties. Strong upper ridge builds east over the area later Wednesday, with building heat and humidity from west to east.
801 PM EDT Tue Jun 14 2022 High pressure and upper-level ridging continue to dominate our weather.
High pressure will bring dry weather tonight and Wednesday.
933 PM EDT Tue Jun 14 2022 A weak back door cold front will move through portions of central NC tonight.
1037 PM EDT Tue Jun 14 2022 After the cloud line that formed over the Lower Keys earlier this afternoon dissipated, convective activity has been limited to a isolated showers and thunderstorms moving off of the mainland into the SE Gulf Waters. High pressure over Florida and the western North Atlantic will maintain gentle to moderate east to southeasterly breezes for the next several days.
A couple of weak thunderstorms developed in southwest Idaho this afternoon ahead of a short wave trough. The trough and residual light rain showers were in south-central ID this evening and will exit east tonight.
Hot and dry high pressure will then prevail into late week before a cold front likely impacts the region this weekend. Aloft, the large ridge remains centered just to the west of the forecast area. Previously, there was some concern about upstream convection developing across the Mid-Atlantic region and then riding around the east side of the ridge and into the forecast area late tonight. Lows should range in the low to mid 70s in most locations, with upper 70s expected along the immediate coast. Aloft, a large ridge will encompass the southeastern U. Lows will mainly be in the low to mid 70s.
527 PM MDT Tue Jun 14 2022 Upper level trough axis oriented NW-SE over the Rockies and High Plains this afternoon. Cold front that blew through the CWA last night was located from eastern Nebraska to west-central Kansas. Upper level trough pivots ENE into the northern and central Plains Wednesday, with upstream ridging aloft beginning to build over the Rockies Wednesday night. High temperatures Wednesday afternoon will average about 5 degrees warmer than Tuesday.
Strong/severe storms that formed earlier along a cold front continue to lift northeastward with the brunt of activity currently north of the I-80 corridor. Cold front that has pushed into the region will bring a temporary reprieve to the oppressive heat/humidity with dramatically cooler conditions today. However, on Thursday a strong upper level ridge is progged to build rapidly over the central CONUS setting up favorable conditions for the return of very sultry weather to the plains through this weekend.
A little more mid and high level cloud cover is expected today while we are wedged between the mid level ridge to the east and a trough to the northwest. The cloud cover should help keep temperatures down a bit more this afternoon with highs mostly expected in the low 90s for most locations. The passing mid level trough to the north could will allow for a weak cold front to dip into far southeast Kansas this evening before stalling and becoming more diffuse with time.
300 AM EDT Wed Jun 15 2022 A weak back door cold front will stall over the Piedmont today. High pressure off the Mid-Atlantic will remain in place through Thursday.
HEAT: High temperatures (89-95 F) will be 1-2 degrees cooler today than yesterday while max heat index values (93-100 F) will be 1-5 degrees cooler. Lows tonight will be 2-3 degrees cooler than early today. SHOWER AND STORM POTENTIAL: A cold front will move near or possibly into the northern CWA this evening into tonight, possibly resulting in some convection.
Low temperatures are expected to be in the lower 50s in far eastern Colorado, middle 50s to lower 60s elsewhere. High temperatures will be in the lower to middle 80s. High temperatures warm into the lower 90s to around 100 degrees with low temperatures in the lower 60s to around 70.
(Today and tonight) Much of west Texas will remain between two upper-level features today: A trough over the northern high plains and a ridge over the southeast US. By this evening, the trough will shift northeastward into central Canada, which will allow the ridge to start building back westward across the southern plains overnight.
Discussion: Water vapor satellite imagery and 500 mb heights show that the ridge that has been in control of the weather the last couple of days has made an eastward shift with the axis now positioned from the eastern GoM extending northwards into the Upper Great Lakes, placing us in southwest flow aloft. A potent trough that has been working through the Northern Rockies, will start to lift up into the Canadian Plains overnight tonight. We should see similar conditions again tomorrow ahead of the cold front with less humid conditions despite the hot temperatures ahead of the front. The remainder of the week will see temperatures several degrees cooler with lower humidity, but a stout ridge will start to build back over the central conus for the upcoming weekend and beyond.
125 AM EDT Wed Jun 15 2022 A weak back door cold front will move through portions of central NC tonight. High pressure off the Mid-Atlantic will remain in place through Thursday.
A cold front trucked along through the region this morning and has since stalled out along our eastern boundary this afternoon. Several sites reported a welcome dip in temperatures as cooler air filtered into the region. An upper trough continues to push into the area with southwest flow aloft over the forecast area. The upper trough and a closed low lift to the north and east through the day. Temperatures are expected to be cooler across the region with highs ranging from the low to mid-80s. An upper ridge builds over the Central Plains Thursday through the weekend.
Today Through Thursday Night A ridge of high pressure will be centered just to our east over the Tennessee Valley today. Under the ridge, summer heat will continue, with little to no chance of rain. Maximum heat indices will approach 105 degrees in the northeast closest to the ridge, and kept a Heat Advisory going in Lawrence, Randolph, and Sharp Counties. On Thursday, the ridge will wobble in this direction. It will be a touch warmer, and it appears dewpoints will go up a little.
329 AM CDT Wed Jun 15 2022 Water vapor satellite imagery and 500mb analysis show a fairly amplified pattern over the lower 48 with a stout upper trough positioned over the northern Rockies and southern Canada and a strong upper ridge over the Tennessee Valley. While a storm or two cannot be ruled out for areas to the west, warmer mid-level temperatures will likely keep a lid on storm chances as it currently stands. The lack of a surface focus along with upper ridging building into the central plains will likely hamper storm chances, though a storm or two can't be ruled out across portions of northeast Kansas into western Missouri Thursday evening.
(Wednesday through Thursday) No relief from the ridge will be seen during the course of this short term forecast period. While the upper level ridge parked over the southeastern US expands westward as the week continues, maintaining the hot pattern of late, an increase in Saharan dust looks to contribute to keeping air temperatures below the century mark.
1055 PM MDT Tue Jun 14 2022 H5 trough remains centered just to the north across northern MT, with impulses wrapping around the south side into WY. The trough will begin to rotate out to the east tonight, taking along the threat for more shower activity for western WY. As the trough sweeps east Wednesday, ridging begins to build in behind, will bring recovering temperatures to the state, with highs reaching back into the 70s east of the divide, and low to mid 60s west of the divide and in the western valleys. The upper-level ridge axis should be right over western and central Wyoming Thursday morning, with a slight NNW-SSE tilt as the trough along the west coast starts digging.
1149 PM EDT Tue Jun 14 2022 High pressure will build over the region tonight through Wednesday.
/NEW/ /Through Wednesday Night/ A strong upper ridge remains anchored over the Ohio Valley and the Deep South, which is maintaining deep southerly flow across the Southern Plains. A subtropical upper low is slowly drifting northward into South Texas on the western periphery of the ridge, contributing to fairly widespread cloud cover. This feature also resulted in convection across the higher terrain of West Texas yesterday evening, but moisture content near our forecast area is too scant to support precipitation with this feature. Some shower activity is possible close to the core of this low as it moves towards the Hill Country later today, but this should remain well south and west of the CWA. Hazy skies will also continue as a plume of Saharan dust wraps around the upper high from the southeast.
/issued 945 PM CDT Tue Jun 14 2022/ High pressure remains in control across the region this evening both at the surface and aloft yielding another warm, but quiet weather night. Somewhat higher mid level moisture wrapping around the southern and western periphery of the upper level ridge may allow very isolated showers or thunderstorms to develop across south central Louisiana tomorrow afternoon during peak heating, but the majority of the region will remain hot and dry. Another day where the ridge has brought us more hot. A few storms are beginning to break through the ridge in southwest and south-central Louisiana. Guidance has an area of low pressure at surface in Alabama that will move into eastern Louisiana with storms on Wednesday.
An upper level ridge will remain over the area and keep hot and humid conditions. The Ft Wayne record high is 96F which may be tied or broken today as upstream temperatures were still in the lower 80s at 3 AM. A cold front will bring a chance for showers and storms tonight in the midst of a modifying EML. Heat indices may still reach the upper 90s Thursday over southeast areas (Lima) before cooler weather arrives. A large anticyclone out of Canada will bring drier air to start the weekend.
Seasonably warm into Wednesday as high pressure peaks over the region. Cooling trend starts Thursday as next trough approaches with increasing onshore winds.
230 AM EDT Wed Jun 15 2022 A weak back door cold front will stall over the Piedmont today. High pressure off the Mid-Atlantic will remain in place through Thursday.
By Thursday, we should see the ridge move a bit westward allowing showers to push into the area.
200 AM EDT Wed Jun 15 2022 A weak back door cold front will stall over the Piedmont today. High pressure off the Mid-Atlantic will remain in place through Thursday.
(Today and tonight) In the short term, the large upper high remains east of Oklahoma, but above average temperatures will continue into Wednesday. This would be in response to a weak front moving into that area coincident with an upper trough moving from the northern plains into the upper midwest.
314 AM CDT Wed Jun 15 2022 At the start of the short term an upper low will be translating across the Southern Canadian Prairies within a slowly progressive upper pattern. As the progression occurs, the hot mid level ridge currently centered over the southeast CONUS will begin expanding to the north and west this weekend. The models have backed off slightly on the ridge intensity, but temps will still be quite warm/hot over the weekend.
At a larger scale, suspect the main cluster of storms we'll need to watch for our FA will be those currently lifting northeast out of central Nebraska as the main vort lobe rounds the trough. Again, current trends and mesoanalysis would suggest the highest chances for these threats along and south of Hwy 20 with general thunder further north/west. Temperatures and humidity values will be on the more bearable side today as the upper level trough axis slides overhead, generally looking at mid 70s to lower 80s. Could see some breezier winds north of I-90 into the morning hours Thursday as stronger 850 mb flow rotates through the base of the trough.
Temperatures along the island chain are hovering in the lower 80s, with muggy dewpoints in the mid 70s, and winds on land from the east to southeast at 5 to 10 mph. Surface analysis depicts high pressure centered over the central Atlantic, with a ridge extending westward across the Florida peninsula and into the western Gulf of Mexico. Aloft, a deep ridge is centered over the Southeastern states. Global model PoPs are generally in the 20-25 percent range for today, however much of the CAM guidance is quite a bit more bullish with convective development during the day, mainly focusing along a ENE-WSW axis from Florida Bay to the Lower Keys.
Today marks the first day of a ridge building over the region.
This front will mark the change from the hot and humid conditions to more seasonally normal values, with even cooler and drier conditions found this weekend. Temperatures on Wednesday are expected to be slightly warmer than what has been seen this afternoon. If the dewpoints come in significantly cooler, temperatures may actually rise in response so apparent temperature/heat index values will be very close if not exceed the 105 mark.
The highest HIs are over our eastern counties, where values were averaging between 100 and 103. A large upper level ridge centered over the Ohio River Valley will keep warm and drier air over the region through tonight and early Wednesday. A cold front over the central Plains will shift eastward to near the KS/MO border on Wednesday but will stall over the area due to blocking from the upper level ridge.
Forecast Discussion: The 19Z surface map shows low pressure near Fargo, ND and another over the Oklahoma panhandle. Between the two, a cold front extends from western Minnesota southward through central Kansas. The cold front will move slight southward and will likely bisect the CWA from northeast to southwest by the afternoon. Beyond tomorrow, the surface front will remain in the CWA, possibly even pushing slightly northward as a warm front. Upper level ridging becomes the dominate pattern over the central US through the weekend, keeping conditions hot and summer-like.
An upper ridge of high pressure will move across the forecast area beginning tonight and continuing on Wednesday. Highs on Wednesday are expected to climb back into the mid 70s to lower 80s in the lower elevations, and mid 60s to lower 70s in the mountains. The upper ridge axis is then expected to move to the east of the forecast area Wednesday night and Thursday, with a southwest flow developing behind it.
1222 AM CDT Wed Jun 15 2022 (06Z TAFS) For the 15/06Z TAFs, VFR conditions will dominate for the majority of the period as high pressure continues to maintain southerly flow. Partly cloudy and hazy skies will follow, with highs in the mid to upper 90s, as upper ridging remains over the area.
(Today) Unseasonably hot/humid conditions continue this early Wed morning, as a strong upper ridge pattern remains centered near the mid TN Valley, while high pressure at the sfc lingers over the mid Gulf. Little change in this overall pattern is expected today, as lingering moisture below H7 helps to maintain dew pts in the lower/mid 70s. Some of the latest models/high res guidance are also suggesting an MCV like feature moving southward along the eastern fringe of the upper ridge axis later today before rotating westward into perhaps the eastern/central parts of the area late this afternoon.
As low pressure deepens over southern Manitoba, a surge of 850 mb winds of 50 to 60 kts pushes across east central Montana into North Dakota this afternoon. The winds will then gradually decrease from west to east tonight as high pressure builds in from the west.
357 AM CDT Wed Jun 15 2022 Upper level ridging remains in control and most areas will remain hot, humid, and dry through tonight.
1010 PM MDT Tue Jun 14 2022 Upper level analysis shows an upper level trough over the western US with an upper level low centered over northern MT and southern AB/SK. Cooler, more seasonable temperatures are in place the rest of today and into tomorrow as the trough moves through. Wednesday afternoon the upper level low passes to the north and creates a tight pressure gradient over ND and northern SD. Ridge builds over the region later in the week and a warming and drying trend will start.
The upper level high responsible for our early season heat wave is centered over eastern TN/KY currently. Meanwhile, longwave troughing is positioned over the Northern Plains with an upper low to the north in southern Canada. As it does, the ridge will flatten across the southern U.
Hot and dry high pressure will then prevail into late week before a cold front likely impacts the region this weekend. Aloft, a large ridge will encompass the southeastern U. Lows will mainly be in the low to mid 70s.
1102 PM MDT Tue Jun 14 2022 Upper level trough axis oriented NW-SE over the Rockies and High Plains this afternoon. Cold front that blew through the CWA last night was located from eastern Nebraska to west-central Kansas. Upper level trough pivots ENE into the northern and central Plains Wednesday, with upstream ridging aloft beginning to build over the Rockies Wednesday night.
Discussion: We will remain under the influence of the strong upper ridge for the period. This cap may weaken enough today for some convection to develop over some of the higher terrain in the east, with possible outflow boundaries sliding into the valley to touch off additional convection there. Record Highs for Today: Date Chattanooga Knoxville Tri-Cities Oak Ridge 06-15 98(1952) 95(1943) 93(2015) 95(2015).
06Z observations are showing a large upper low moving through central Saskatchewan with an associated trough rotating into the central Rockies. At the surface a 1002 mb low is situated in far southwest Kansas with an associated warm front extending from Syracuse to Hays to southeastern Nebraska. It is along this front we've seen training supercells in southern Nebraska and as the storms move east and the trough from the Rockies starts to move into the central plains this should give the momentum for a cold front to move across southwest Kansas during the mid to late morning hours. Winds should start to subside by afternoon as an area of high pressure moves into north central Kansas. Tonight a low level jet will develop and this should lift a warm front back through southwest Kansas during the night.
A look at water vapor imagery this morning reveals an upper level low slowly drifting off to our northwest as ridging builds into the region from the northeast. Expect this trend to continue through the morning hours as a H5 vort max is tugged through the Brush Country by an inverted trough stationed across West Texas. Mid to upper level ridging and drier air will work into the region through the day, bringing an end to any showers/storms that do develop. Hot and dry conditions will be in play again on Thursday as ridging remains in control.
1224 AM CDT Wed Jun 15 2022 (This evening through Wednesday) Above normal temperatures and gusty southerly winds will persist over the area through tonight, as the area remains in between a strengthening trough to the west and a broadening ridge to the east.