Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
948 AM CDT WED JUN 22 2016 Low pressure was over central North Dakota. The northwest winds on the back side of the low were higher than forecast. Also low clouds moving south behind the low and have increased sky cover - and in turn adjusted temperatures a bit lower than forecast for today. The high res models seem to have a good handle on the current convection and support a chance of showers and possibly a couple thunderstorms through the day, particularly north and east. 500MB heights build during the day as upper ridge moves in from the west with dry conditions expected tonight.
1001 AM CDT WED JUN 22 2016 Upper level low pressure system was located over the ND/MAN border. Inverted trough from main low over N Central NE extending back into second area of low pressure over Srn SASK. Low pressure will move into northeastern ND by noon time with instability weakening across the north and some instability south of Hwy 2. High pressure slides into ND by 06Z and should see any lingering activity dissipate during the evening hours as winds turn northeast than northerly by midnight. Overnight lows will be in the lower 50s and possibly upper 40s in the far northeast as the drier air sinks in from Ontario. Western zones will see return flow set up in the afternoon, which will keep Thu night lows 5 to 6 deg warmer across the west than across northern MN.
Dry conditions can be expected today as weak ridging quickly passes over the area. There still remain questions on the exact track the complex will take, and in turn where the warm front, which will help to guide the system, will setup tonight. Conditions will improve from north to south Thursday afternoon, as a slightly cooler and drier airmass slowly overspreads the area.
620 AM CDT WED JUN 22 2016 The latest surface analysis depicts a cold front just to our north. This front is forecast to lift north today as a warm front and should have little effect or relief from the heat for the heartland. After that the upper level ridge builds back into the region placing a strong cap or temperature inversion over the area between 6k and 10k feet with CINH negative 50 or more.
A pressure ridge extending from the Atlantic westward through the northern Gulf of Mexico will continue to limit moisture in the forecast area. Expecting dry conditions across the central Midlands and CSRA where the upper ridge off to the southwest should have a little more control. The models depict the front remaining north of the area with surface ridging near the Gulf Coast through Thursday. The models indicate building upper ridging which should further diminish the thunderstorm chance. We followed the higher high temperature guidance. The models show the front sinking a little farther southward with somewhat diminished upper ridging Thursday night.
647 AM CDT WED JUN 22 2016 High pressure will continue to dominate with widespread VFR conditions expected. Moisture channel imagery shows the center of the upper level ridge is located along the Red River at this time. Amplitude of the ridge is less versus this time yesterday as a short wave trough is moving through the upper Midwest has knocked it down somewhat. Another hot and muggy day is expected today as the upper ridge will remain nearly stationary. South to southwest surface winds courtesy of high pressure sitting over the southeast United States will continue to pull gulf moisture into the region for high humidity levels.
/ISSUED 306 AM CDT WED JUN 22 2016/ The subtropical upper level high will be the dominant player in our weather through the next several days.
608 AM CDT WED JUN 22 2016 Winds will be gusty this morning into the early afternoon at all TAF sites as the low level jet mixes out. Winds will turn around to the northeast behind a weak cold front at DHT and GUY late this afternoon. The center of the upper level ridge will shift to the southeast throughout the day today while still allowing high temperatures to increase near and a few degrees above the century mark. This convection will be able to make further eastward progression compared to yesterday due to the weakening upper ridge and a more zonal flow pattern.
An upper trough and associated weak front pushes inland tonight and Thursday.
743 AM EDT WED JUN 22 2016 Aviation Showers and thunderstorms will move across southern Lower Michigan late this afternoon and evening as low pressure tracks to the south. Severe weather threat appears limited to the far southern zones as models are converging on a low track that would keep the warm front from making much progress into Lower Michigan.
1126 AM EDT WED JUN 22 2016 An upper level low will move across our region today. Low pressure will then pass to our south on Thursday perhaps bringing southern zones some showers. High pressure and warmer temperatures move in for the weekend. Strong short wave trough, the leading edge of which is across far upstate NY at 9 am will swing across our CWA today. A short wave trough currently moving through south eastern Ontario will move into New Hampshire and Maine this morning. Ahead of the trough, clouds are beginning to spread into the northern portion of the forecast area. With the very cold air aloft, small hail is possible as freezing levels drop to around 7000ft.
Temperatures are in the lower 80s. In the low levels of the atmosphere, a trough of low pressure will slowly progress westward through the Bahamas this afternoon. In the mid levels of the atmosphere, a trough of low pressure will be located over the western Gulf of Mexico today.
911 AM EDT WED JUN 22 2016 An upper level low will move across our region today. Low pressure will then pass to our south on Thursday perhaps bringing southern zones some showers. High pressure and warmer temperatures move in for the weekend. Strong short wave trough, the leading edge of which is across far upstate NY at 9 am will swing across our CWA today. A short wave trough currently moving through south eastern Ontario will move into New Hampshire and Maine this morning. Ahead of the trough, clouds are beginning to spread into the northern portion of the forecast area. With the very cold air aloft, small hail is possible as freezing levels drop to around 7000ft.
404 AM PDT WED JUN 22 2016 Temperatures will remain well above normal through the weekend as strong high pressure continues to dominate the region.
1116 AM EDT WED JUN 22 2016 A weak ridge of high pressure at the surface and aloft will drift southeast over the region today, accompanied by dry air with mostly sunny skies. An area of low pressure will be moving out of the Midwest later today and tonight.
Warm front was arced across the SW half of the forecast area with a heavy rain, and occasionally severe, MCS on-going early this morning from N central IA across SE IA into north central IL. Somewhat concerned that the warm front may remain further south and SW than models depict and the critical triple point with the area of low pressure advancing SE out of SD will move through east central IA or possibly SE IA into west central IL this afternoon. THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TODAY AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE INTERACTS WITH A WARM FRONT AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ACROSS THE AREA.
As the upper low moves inland over northern Oregon and Washington and troughing develops over the area Thursday evening and night, showers are expected to continue from the Cascades west. With this front and upper low passage, expect breezy west to northwest winds, mainly for areas from the Cascades east and into some western valleys such as the Rogue and Shasta Valleys.
625 AM CDT WED JUN 22 2016 Short version of the forecast, HOT and maybe then rain; long version, really HOT today and some potential for rain in the future! Satellite imagery this morning shows a broad ridge across much of the Nation with the prevailing westerlies located across the Northern Plains. with the Dakotas trough moving east this morning another weak frontal boundary is expected to settle into far northern Missouri late this afternoon and through the overnight hours. Add in the fact that the thermal ridge axis will lay over across the forecast area ahead of the front, and temperatures could reasonably range around 100 degrees; and that's before we factor in the humidity.
/Issued 249 AM CDT WED JUN 22 2016/ The mid level ridge will sustain hot and dry weather thru today, but will get suppressed to the south on Thursday as a strong upper wave slides across the Ohio Valley.
1036 AM EDT WED JUN 22 2016 High pressure is ridging across the area from the Atlantic with drier air moderating across the area. Temperatures are on track to reach generally into the lower 90s this afternoon, except upper 80s at the beaches. High pressure ridging across the waters from the Atlantic will keep generally easterly flow in place through much of the week.
VFR conditions will prevail today into tonight as the 500mb ridge across Texas continues to provide subsidence across deep south TX. Isolated showers may develop across the coastal sections of the CWA this afternoon as the seabreeze front develops along the lower TX coast and moves inland. /issued 357 AM CDT WED JUN 22 2016/ SHORT TERM (Today through Thursday): 500mb subtropical ridge across the south central United States today will move little tonight into Thursday as an inverted 500mb trough moving across the southwest Gulf of Mexico and Bay of Campeche today and tonight moves westward into eastern Mexico Thursday.
800 AM EDT WED JUN 22 2016 A warm front will return northward today as low pressure moves toward the area. These storms are expected to produce widespread wind damage by early tonight over the forecast area as a warm front moves northeast.
1043 AM MDT WED JUN 22 2016 Upper level analysis has rather flat ridge across the western CONUS with near zonal flow across the Northern Plains. At the surface, low pressure has shifted into north central NE with cold front almost through south central SD. Winds behind the front have been very gusty out of the northwest, with some of the higher gusts over 50 mph.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 93 72 94 75 / 20 10 10 50 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 89 71 92 73 / 30 20 20 50 Oak Ridge, TN 88 72 92 73 / 30 20 20 50 Tri Cities Airport, TN 85 66 89 69 / 50 30 40 60.
730 AM EDT WED JUN 22 2016 Broad eastern states trough puts GA in a northwest flow aloft. The upper ridge strengthens over the southeast on Thursday and forecast precipitable water expected to be near an inch or less.
755 AM EDT WED JUN 22 2016 A weak ridge of high pressure at the surface and aloft will drift southeast over the region today, accompanied by dry air with mostly sunny skies. An area of low pressure will be moving out of the Midwest later today and tonight.
A high pressure system will maintain warm and dry conditions across the region today. A low pressure trough will move eastward north of the area Thursday increasing cloudiness and resulting in slightly cooler temperatures. A high pressure ridge will build across the region this weekend reducing cloudiness and increasing temperatures slightly. A high pressure ridge stretching across the region will maintain warm and dry conditions today. Thursday a low pressure trough will propagate eastward north of the area increasing cloudiness and resulting in slightly cooler temperatures.
819 AM EDT WED JUN 22 2016 The combination of a dry airmass in place, and subsidence produced by a ridge of high pressure will keep skies sunny today. Temperatures will moderate into the lower to middle 90s today. VFR conditions will persist under high pressure this 12z taf period.
High pressure will return by the end of the week, with plenty of sunshine and increasingly warm temperatures this weekend. Latest guidance had shifted northern edge of precipitation associated with convective complex or remnant low moving along a warm front to the south of continuity.
Today Through Thursday Night Small short wave over southern Canada coming into northern ND is breaking down the upper ridge, and northwest flow will keep moisture from upper low over southern AZ from reaching the forecast area. Ridge rebuilds today was next upper trof digs along the Pacific Coast. Temperatures will be warmer as thermal ridge extends over the Rockies and southerly winds give us warm advection. A weak short wave crosses the forecast area Thursday afternoon as surface trof approaches. Upper low settles over the Pacific NW and stalls out late in the week, with ridging over the plains.
615 AM EDT WED MAY 18 2016 A cold front will push further south today.
Cold front has slipped into the far southern CWA, and was located just to the south of an Eagle Pass to Pleasanton to Halletsville line.
Southerly return flow continues across the region with high pressure east and low pressure west.
High pressure and a dry airmass will travel across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley on Wednesday and Thursday.
318 AM CDT WED MAY 18 2016 High pressure over the region has led to mostly clear skies and light winds overnight which have allowed temperatures to drop into the thirties for most areas as of 08Z. The high will move south and east today allowing the surface wind to turn southerly for most areas. Some of the high res CAMS support a low pop and we kept the mention in that area. It will be warmer today with highs in the mid sixties to lower seventies, cooler close to Lake Superior. Similar conditions to today will occur Thursday across the Northland with highs in the upper sixties to lower seventies with it again being cooler close to Lake Superior.
224 AM EDT WED MAY 18 2016 A slow moving cold front sagging south out of the Great Lakes will keep the mention of rain in the forecast into Wednesday.
Have maintained cool temps around 40 for the cwa tonight, with the lowest temps in the upper 30s expected across north central Illinois. At this time, not overly concerned with frost, but given the lighter winds and cooler temps, patchy frost will be possible in some locations and have made mention of this in the grids. Temps will rise back to the low to mid 60s on Wednesday, but likely diurnal cu by midday will limit high temps.
212 AM EDT WED MAY 18 2016 A slow moving cold front sagging south out of the Great Lakes will keep the mention of rain in the forecast into Wednesday.
High pressure has barely moved over the last 24 hours, presently over nw WI. Ridging extending eastward is contributing to the dry low-level airmass in place across northern MI. The high will drift slowly eastward, and will be dead overhead this evening. A 500mb trof axis remains over lower MI, but is deteriorating with time. Some patchy mid-clouds could still develop this morning in eastern upper/ne lower MI, thanks to the lingering upper trof. Max temps mainly low/mid 60s, cooler on the beaches. Mins will be commonly in the low to mid 30s, cooler in the usual interior cold spots. Medium Impact Weather: elevated fire danger coming up as the high temperatures reach 75F and the minimum RH will fall below 25%.
For now, forecasted lows in the upper 30s to near 40 for these areas sunrise Wed, with most other locales in the lower 40s. Much more typical May weather is expected to return to SW KS this weekend, with much warmer temperatures and an increasing threat of severe thunderstorms. Weak upper trough swings through SW KS, spreading scattered showers and thunderstorms through the region. Thickness is still held down with continued upslope flow, as such temperatures will continue to be well below normal in the lower 60s.
Upper trough will slowly nudge eastward tonight. With confidence on the lower end with respect to location of heavy rain, it was decided to forego a Flash Flood Watch at this time.
temperatures will soar into the lower to middle 60s.
Big picture across the Nation shows a rather messy pattern in place with large trough circulating over the Great Basin.
With less cloud cover and no precipitation, today's afternoon high temperatures should reach the mid to upper 60s across most of the CWA, which is about 10-15 degrees warmer than yesterday but still roughly 10 degrees cooler than average for this time of year. Meanwhile, the vort max which will have been located over the Arizona/Mexico border at 12z today will have been ejected northeastward in response to a large low pressure system approaching the Pacific Northwest.
The low currently over AZ will weaken/open up and head E as it begins to feel the upstream effects of the next trof fcst to move into the Pac NW. the trof remnants of the AZ low will extend from Wrn KS into NM. 2-3F warmer than yesterday. then turning p/cloudy again after midnight as S winds in advance of the approaching trof bring clouds back in. An upper low pressure system in the desert southwest will fill as it lifts northeast onto the southern and central plains on Thursday.
High pressure builds in on Thursday with a drier environment.
The Gulf short wave trough is now pushing onshore the FL west coast and will slide across the state overnight. the bulk of the convection is ahead of the trough and will exit to the east however some residual convection will linger for the rest of the night. High pressure ridging north of the waters will slowly drift south overnight with southeast and south winds becoming southwesterly Wed at modest speeds.
259 AM EDT WED MAY 18 2016 A cold front will push further south today.
1033 PM PDT TUE MAY 17 2016 The Inland Northwest will experience one more day of warmer than average temperatures on Wednesday before a vigorous cold front arrives Wednesday evening. A strong cold front will press through late Wednesday with the potential for periods of brief moderate to heavy rainfall across the Central Idaho Panhandle generally south of a line from Mullan to Lewiston to Anatone. /sb 06Z TAFS: High clouds spreading inland ahead of an approaching trough. Winds to increase Wednesday afternoon ahead of a strong cold front and become quite gusty with and behind the frontal passage.
A cold front is now through all but the southern TAF sites with ceilings lowering behind the front. and a cold front is dropping south into NW and WRN sections of the state. then generally dry CWA-wide for Wed night as ridging aloft strengthens. Have chances for precip increasing for Thu as the upper level ridge shifts east.
This low will be on a weak boundary that the showers and storms over the area have been developing on. Currently have the high PoPs across most of South Florida this afternoon, per most of the model output, but the HRRR would render this as overkill for the area north of I-75. However, will leave the higher PoPs for now.
The rain appears to be associated with a mid-level trough axis extending from west Texas eastward across the Red River and the entrance region of an upper level jet. Rain/showers will increase this evening and especially overnight as waa increases ahead of a trough/low to our west.
Moving on, partial clearing expected tonight as high pressure begins to influence the area from the north.
Early morning water vapor imagery continued to show upper level ridging across the Midwest. Starting out, moisture will increase slightly as H925 winds become southerly as the high pressure moves eastward.
An upper level trough over the area may be able to produce a few sprinkles today.
The other terminals should see visibilities of 3 to 5 miles mainly due to the low cloud deck expected to be in place.
Recent ridging breaks down today. mainly across the higher elevations. Little support is present to maintain any thunderstorms that do venture away from the higher elevations.
A positively tilted upper trough will move across the Four Corners region today. As the southwestern trough approaches the Southern Plains tonight, an increase in cloudiness late tonight across the southern forecast area. The next upper trough upstream will move into the Pacific Northwest.
Temperatures will rise into the 60s across most of the forecast area to near 70 over the lower elevations of western Nebraska.
With clear skies, light winds and a dry airmass in place associated with the area of high pressure, temperatures are radiating into the upper 30s to lower 40s across the region. The lowest temperatures are closer to the Wisconsin border where a Frost Advisory remains in effect. The area of high pressure will move very little through tomorrow morning, so expect temperatures across the region to remain below seasonal normals with highs across much of the area in the low to middle 60s. Persistent, synoptic northeasterly flow will keep lakefront locations much cooler, with highs only in the lower to middle 50s. Otherwise, conditions should remain quiet tonight as the high pressure remains parked over the region. Conditions for tonight and into tomorrow morning should remain unseasonably unseasonably cool, but not quite as cool as this morning, with lows in the lower 40s.
102 AM EDT WED MAY 18 2016 A cold front will cross the region tonight and linger just off the coast Wednesday.
657 AM EDT WED MAY 18 2016 Dry air associated with high pressure building in from the west will inhibit low cloud development today, leading to just some higher based (greater than 5k ft) diurnal clouds. Expansive area of high pressure is building over the Great Lakes and will hold over the region through the end of the week.
354 AM EDT WED MAY 18 2016 Low pressure and rain showers will move east today. High pressure centered over the Great Lakes will bring dry conditions tonight through Thursday.
West Central Texas will remain in southwest flow aloft today, as an upper level low currently over the Desert Southwest slowly approaches. Overnight, the aforementioned upper level low will move toward West Central Texas.
with temperatures ranging mainly in the lower to mid 40s along side a few locales already dipping into the upper 30s. High pressure lies to our north. and the upper low/trough that models had linger between the central/southern portions of the Rockies. upper low over the desert SW will begin to shift east into the Southern Plains region just south of the cwa. replaced by increased h5 ridging. Depending on which model run to go with some uncertainty to extent of qpf that will push into the region as the upper low passes by. increasing temp trend expected over the 3-day period with highs Today ranging in the lower to mid 60s.
227 AM CDT WED MAY 18 2016 A cold front currently stretches from near Knoxville, Tennessee to Greenwood, Mississippi. Highs will range from the upper 60s to the lower 70s across much of the Mid- South. The cold front that is currently moving through the Mid-South will push southward to the Gulf Coast today and stall out. The front will begin lifting northward as a warm front on Thursday.
1105 PM MDT TUE MAY 17 2016 20z surface analysis had high pressure from the upper Midwest into eastern CO. Water vapour had upper ridge across the northern Plains into central Canada and upper low spinning across the southwest US. Tonight through Wednesday night, upper low over the southwest US moves east and weakens as another upper low drops into southwest Canada creating westerly flow aloft over the CWA. Modest low level jet develops tonight across northeast WY into far western SD, but predicted minimum temperatures suggests boundary layer will remain largely decoupled save for the higher elevations of the Black Hills / Foothills. Upper low settles over the Pacific NW and stalls out late in the week with ridging over the plains.
A very large area of high pressure at the surface drifts ever so slowly eastward, extending across the MS valley, OH valley and Great Lakes region.
315 AM MDT WED MAY 18 2016 A weak upper level low over AZ will move into NM by tonight. Aftn capes across the higher terrain and in and nr the foothills will range fm 500-700 j/kg so expect a chance of showers and storms across the higher terrain with only wdly sct activity along the front range. Highs this aftn will be warmer across the plains with readings in the upper 50s to mid 60s. For tonight will continue to see a chc of showers and a few storms early in the evening across the higher terrain but most activity should end before midnight.