Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1213 AM EST Mon Mar 1 2021 A cold front will sweep across the region tonight. Drier conditions will return Monday into Tuesday as high pressure builds in. The final surge of pcpn is moving in across our area from the southwest this evening ahead of an approaching cold front. Pcpn will taper off from the west later tonight as the cold front moves through. High pressure will start to build in tomorrow with the center of the high tracking across the area late Monday night. Temperatures will fall below normal with highs in the lower to mid 40s and lows in the upper teens to mid 20s. For Tuesday night, a trough of low pressure has trended farther south, so reduced pops below 15 percent threshold for precip.
1021 PM EST Sun Feb 28 2021 Currently - Deep layered ridging has gained deeper control of the area. A ridge across Florida will maintain east to southeast breezes that will gradually diminish overnight.
As the aforementioned snow continues to move away from the region, expect abundant sunshine today as an area of high pressure builds. The area of high pressure will quickly dive southward tonight, resulting in southerly return flow developing across the Northland. This will set the stage for a warmer air mass to settle into the region for Tuesday and linger through the week. High temperatures for Tuesday will significantly warm up compared to Monday, into the lower to middle 40s. For the rest of the week, a large upper-level ridge will build over the Intermountain West states, resulting in persistent subsidence over the Northland.
Even the highest peaks have been staying below 25 mph gusts. A low pressure will move parallel to the coast Monday, but looks to stay far enough offshore to keep the coast dry, but close enough to provide weak onshore wind.
440 AM MST Mon Mar 1 2021 A little low cloud and fog has spread west from North Dakota early this morning, but already beginning to break up in the lower Yellowstone valley. Otherwise generally sunny and warm conditions expected today with ridge over the western states. Wave moving through western Canada will flatten the ridge and spread chinook arch clouds east across the northern zones but no precipitation is expected. Zonal flow will persist for a few days before ridge begins to rebound midweek with a trof digging along the west coast. Quiet flying weather will continue for at least the next couple of days as upper level ridging will be the dominant feature.
These clouds will shift southeastward this morning as upper trough currently over the Upper Midwest moves into the Great Lakes. The upper low seen on water vapor over the southwest CONUS this morning is taking slightly farther south track which will keep any chance of precipitation to the south of the CWA on Tuesday.
715 AM EST Mon Mar 1 2021 Cold front has pushed into southeast Kentucky this morning with strong cold advection ongoing across much of east Kentucky. Clouds will hold tough through the morning hours, but significantly drier air upstream should help to erode the sky cover this afternoon, especially as surface ridging spreads east into the region. We begin Tuesday under the influence of high pressure and a colder airmass that moved in behind the cold front that passed during the short term.
Later today we should have clearing skies and highs in the lower 20s, so that should help improve travel conditions, especially on treated roads. The clear skies will continue overnight as high pressure settles across the region, and that will set the stage for cold temperatures across eastern MN and western WI. The potential for temperatures warmer than what is currently forecast is still there if the upper level low over eastern Canada doesn't get hung up and the upper level ridge across the Rockies is able to advance farther to the east, but this is a low-confidence weather pattern.
Despite west northwest flow aloft Tuesday, much of the 00Z guidance allows a compact upper low to move east from the southern Plains to the Tennessee Valley Tuesday into Tuesday night. Generally stayed close the NBM temperatures through the period, with the exception of lows tonight when the cooler ConsMOS numbers were mixed in. While the entire area is forecast to drop below freezing, we may not be cool enough. Lows Tuesday night are forecast to be right near the freezing mark, but any precipitation should be out of the area well before there would be any concern for wintry precipitation.
This, in combination with a surface cold front that passed through yesterday, caused showers and thunderstorms to move across West Central Texas early this morning. The upper low will progress across west Texas today, which should keep skies cloudy with additional chances for light showers. Given overcast skies, more chances for rain and the upper low moving right overhead, we have trended heavily toward the MET guidance, which shows temperatures settling into the mid 40s for the rest of the day. By tonight, rain chances will end as the axis of the upper low passes by and skies should clear out. As a result, low temperatures should fall to the low to mid 30s by late tonight.
Convection has been expanding over the past few hours within the moist axis as a wave ejecting from trough in the desert southwest continues to lift northeast across west Texas. A more defined feature located near El Paso this morning will begin to move ENE tonight and Tuesday, with the center of a closed low tracking near the Red River. Light precip should begin to expand across mainly areas southeast of I-44 by Tuesday morning, with forecast thermal profiles continuing to support a mix or change over to light snow as colder mid level temps associated with the core of the upper low move overhead.
After it passes east high pressure will build in from the west on Tuesday.
Currently, northwest flow aloft with a deep upper level trough over the Great Lakes region and an amplifying ridge across the western CONUS. Strong WAA across the west today, coupled with a clearing sky and strong mixing, will result in mild temperatures in the lower to mid 50s. Went with the higher end of NBM guidance for highs with the mixing expected.
554 AM CST Mon Mar 1 2021 Updated for 12Z aviation discussion 12Z TAF discussion: Most concerns will be associated with a cold front pushing south across the area this morning. /EC/ Today through tonight: A cold front will continue to push south across the forecast area today, and eventually move into the northern Gulf of Mexico by this evening, where it is forecast to stall. Rainfall rates are not all that impressive early this morning in the watch area with observations showing up to half an inch/hr at most, but given the high precipitable water airmass (> 1.
In any case, drier and cooler low level air has ended the threat for heavy rain over the Midsouth. Quiet weather will prevail tonight, with the approach of a closed southern branch upper low.
Temperatures will likely trend considerably warmer through the middle of the week as large- scale upper level ridging gains control.
429 AM CST Mon Mar 1 2021 Today through tonight: A cold front will continue to push south across the forecast area today, and eventually move into the northern Gulf of Mexico by this evening, where it is forecast to stall. Rainfall rates are not all that impressive early this morning in the watch area with observations showing up to half an inch/hr at most, but given the high precipitable water airmass (> 1.
Warmer conditions and lighter winds are forecast through Tuesday.
A cold morning is expected to start the week with some lower desert spots falling to freezing. Otherwise, warmer conditions are anticipated heading into midweek as high pressure moves through the intermountain West.
With the upper level trough and associated low pressure cyclone moving eastward into the area, there should be sufficient lift for a couple possible isolated light showers to develop in portions of southern/central Oklahoma as well as western north Texas this morning into Monday night and Tuesday.
An upper trough centered over east-central Canada continues to gradually shift east across the Great Lakes Region early this morning as flow aloft becomes more northwesterly. Precipitation has pushed out of the area, though it is still ongoing further south and east along the system's expansive cold front. Clearing skies and brisk northwest winds has resulted in cooler temperaturesthis evening. Canadian high pressure sags southward later today, centering itself over northern Illinois/Indiana around midnight. Southwest flow will develop in the low levels and allow temperatures to warm up some by the middle of the week as warmer air advects back north. Highs Tuesday through the end of the week look to be warmer than normal with values in the upper 40s to 50s. Flow aloft becomes northwesterly by the end of the week as a ridge amplifies over the Plains states.
757 AM EST Mon Mar 1 2021 Cold front has pushed into southeast Kentucky this morning with strong cold advection ongoing across much of east Kentucky. Clouds will hold tough through the morning hours, but significantly drier air upstream should help to erode the sky cover this afternoon, especially as surface ridging spreads east into the region.
Temperatures today should top out in the lower 50s and then fall into the 20s tonight given strong radiational cooling under mostly clear skies.
544 AM CST Mon Mar 1 2021 An upper ridge axis will extend over the Central and Southern Rockies today. Meanwhile, warmer temperatures will build across the northern and central High Plains. Highs were nudged upward a few degrees into the lower 50s across the central sandhills and southwest NE. Warmer 850mb temperatures from 4-8C will reside over the area. Even warmer Tuesday, as a southwest wind veers to the northwest in the afternoon. Highs were nudged to near the NBM 50th percentile with 60 to the low 60s forecast most areas.
356 AM CST Mon Mar 1 2021 * Elevated fire weather concerns Tuesday (north-central KS) Water vapor imagery this morning shows a well-defined upper low spinning over southern New Mexico. This low will eventually get kicked out across the Southern Plains later today through Tuesday, passing south of Kansas.
348 AM MST Mon Mar 1 2021 A cold morning is expected to start the week with some lower desert spots falling to freezing. Otherwise, warmer conditions are anticipated heading into midweek as high pressure moves through the intermountain West.
317 AM CST Mon Mar 1 2021 This forecast will further diminish snow chances and possible accumulations for today as exceedingly dry air in the lower atmosphere will make precipitation efficiency very poor. Upper level low pressure early this morning was just west of El Paso and will cross the extreme southern South Plains late this afternoon, filling 50 to 80 meters at the 500 millibar level. This weakening will cause mid and upper flow to veer in our area even as the upper low crosses into the area, and will make it even more difficult to retain the limited mid level moisture. With passage of the upper low to the east by this evening, the mid and upper atmosphere also will dry. RMcQueen The aforementioned upper-level trough will be off to our east by Tuesday with a ridge replacing it.
328 AM CST Mon Mar 1 2021 Wx map shows the cold front extending across East Texas from LFK northeast across North Louisiana to near MLU. Further south, a much warmer & humid airmass prevails with temperatures and dewpoints in the upper 60s to near 70. The cold front will continue to progress southward today and likely stall south of the 60nm marine zone boundary as a frontal wave/low forms with the approaching upper low over the ArkLaTex. This will generate sufficient over-running moisture and lift for most of the showers and isolated thunderstorms to remain north of the surface boundary, expecting the highest precipitation chances later tonight into early Tuesday. Expect the precipitation to end from west to east with the upper level low/axis moves east of the region by Tuesday afternoon.
Winds across Nebraska have kept temperatures a little warmer. Expect the area to be under the influence of high pressure during the day today. This will allow for sunshine, but winds will be fairly light and without much mixing, the temperatures should be a little warmer than yesterday, but not reach the potential they could reach. There is warm advection and with winds increasing a little, temperatures will be a few degrees warmer tonight. Tuesday will bring even warmer temperatures. The southwest part of the forecast area has the possibility of getting even warmer.
602 AM EST Mon Mar 1 2021 Cold front was working through central KY this morning and was located from Cincinnati through Frankfort down to Bowling Green as of writing this discussion. Post frontal showers will linger across our southeastern county warning area as well as clouds across all of central KY/southern IN thanks to an upper level trough sliding through the region behind the cold front. Clouds will completely clear out across the area by late afternoon with afternoon temperatures expected to be in the upper 40s (especially where clouds linger the longest) to the low 50s. High pressure settles in across the Ohio Valley tonight providing clear skies and diminishing winds. An upper level low will advance eastward from the southern Plains Tue, but plenty of dry air will keep skies mostly sunny.
Notably, cloud cover should begin to break over the Nrn portion of the state and allow for modest diurnal warming w/ highs in the mid-50s, while to the S, cloud cover should remain along w/ persisting PoPs and cooler afternoon temps. W/ prevailing Nrly winds, cooler morning temps in the 30s over Nrn AR may support a brief window for some light wintry precip as the aforementioned upper trof contributes to height falls aloft and ample forcing for ascent.
359 AM MST Mon Mar 1 2021 Expect mainly dry weather and more sunshine than clouds through the week as high pressure settles over the area. A weak passing cold front aloft Monday night into Tuesday, along with an upper disturbance, will cause temperatures to level off or cool slightly on Tuesday, with highs remaining in the mid to upper 40s across the plains, and in the upper 30s to lower 40s for most southwest MT valleys.
249 AM MST Mon Mar 1 2021 Latest upper air analysis shows a deepening long wave trough over the Plains to the Desert Southwest. Dry air within the trough has led to a clear sky. Water vapor from the subtropical jet stream is being pushed over the Southern Plains and Eastern CONUS ahead of the advancing long wave trough. Due to weak WAA highs will be five to ten degrees warmer than today. This will allow lows to be warmer, with readings in the 20s.
/Issued 231 AM CST Mon Mar 1 2021/ Current satellite analysis depicts a mid level low pressure system around the bootheel of New Mexico. Dry air is being drawn in on the southern periphery of this low detached from an atmospheric rive running from the southern Baja Peninsula northeast through south-central Texas and through AR, eastern TN, KY, and southern OH. This low will track eastward today bringing some dynamics across west Texas to include the southern Texas Panhandle. However, with the dry air entrainment, moisture will be limited or non-existent in the lower levels. Tuesday night winds will stay in the 10 to 15 mph range for the southern Texas Panhandle, which will help keep temperatures a bit warmer than the rest of the FA to the north.
Aloft a mid level low within the mean trough was located over southern new Mexico at 08Z. Highs today will still warm to around normal values for the start of March with highs in the low to mid 50s. Highs Tuesday afternoon will top out in the upper 50s to mid 60s with the warmer temperatures in central Kansas. Dry weather will also continue on Tuesday with the upper low moving east across the southern Plains and keeping any precipitation south of the forecast area.
Drainage flow will be the only limiting factor, with microclimates that see sustained flow through the night running slightly warmer than surrounding valleys.
335 AM MST Mon Mar 1 2021 High pressure will continue to build over the area through midweek yielding dry and warming conditions.
Since the area will generally be located downstream from ridging and gulf moisture will remain tied up to the south of the area, little if any precipitation of consequence is expected. and Tuesday A strong, cold anticyclone from Canada will surge southeast into the northern Plains today. The high will bring a shot of cold air to the area. The high will quickly shift across the area this evening, then begin departing off to the southeast overnight. Gusty southwest winds between the departing anticyclone and a cyclone tracking across southern Canada will overspread the area Tuesday.
256 AM MST Mon Mar 1 2021 Overview: An upper level ridge over the Intermountain West will build eastward across the Central/Southern Rockies (Today-Tonight) into the Central/Southern Plains (Tue-Wed). A cut-off upper low in the eastern Pacific (~600 miles offshore the CA coast) will meander southward Tue-Tue night. Today-Tonight: A nearly-stalled upper low. Meanwhile, an upper level ridge over the Intermountain West will build eastward into the Central Rockies/High Plains. Tue-Wed night: Light/variable flow aloft will back to the west and undergo modest strengthening in this period as the aforementioned upper ridge flattens /height gradient tightens/ in advance of an upper level low progressing ashore the southern Pacific coast.
529 AM CST Mon Mar 1 2021 * Elevated fire weather concerns Tuesday (north-central KS) Water vapor imagery this morning shows a well-defined upper low spinning over southern New Mexico. This low will eventually get kicked out across the Southern Plains later today through Tuesday, passing south of Kansas.
This is largely indicative of the influence of high pressure while a system dips southward well off our coast. The influence of high pressure should remain in place for most of the work week.
452 AM CST Mon Mar 1 2021 Stratus has set up on the edges of some thermal packing as high pressure builds into the eastern Dakotas this morning. Warm air advection is expected to push in from the west late today as upper ridging builds over the Rockies.
The sun should return from north to south later this morning into early afternoon as high pressure begins to build into the area. Despite the sunshine, high temperatures will be a few degrees below normal, remaining below freezing through the day. Lighter winds and continued clear skies tonight will allow temps to fall into the low teens most locations, possibly into the single digits in a few spots.
604 AM EST Mon Mar 1 2021 Behind a cold front, cooler and drier air will move into the area today, as high pressure moves into the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes. Previous discussion (237 AM) > As of 2AM, a cold front appears to be located at the eastern edge of the ILN forecast area, with winds switched over to the northwest at almost all observation sites. Max temps are expected to range from the lower to upper 40s.
359 AM MST Mon Mar 1 2021 The closed low has shifted over southern New Mexico with ridging in place across Colorado. Current model guidance keeps highs in the upper 40s across the lower elevations with 30s in the mountains.
707 AM EST Mon Mar 1 2021 Mid Level ridging centered near the Yucatan Channel sprawls across the Gulf of Mexico while a ridge axis of high pressure stretches through north-central FL from the Atlantic to the Gulf this morning. These feature ease southward today as a short wave trough moving into the lower Mississippi Valley from the southern plains nudges a frontal boundary into north FL. Winds around 10 knots or so for the next couple of days as high pressure drifts south in advance of a cold front. The front moves south of the state as high pressure builds in by midweek with winds in 15 to 20 knot range possible.
SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday): The most significant event in this portion of the forecast will be the passage of a cold front. Near normal temperatures today will be tempered to below normal levels tonight and Tuesday due to the passage of the cold front.
Veering winds and showers will occur at the aerodromes courtesy of the passage of a cold front. /issued 345 AM CST Mon Mar 1 2021/ SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday): The most significant event in this portion of the forecast will be the passage of a cold front. Near normal temperatures today will be tempered to below normal levels tonight and Tuesday due to the passage of the cold front.
244 PM CST Mon Mar 1 2021 WV imagery shows the upper trough centered over SE NM at 18Z, w/area radars indicating light precipitation, mainly over the northern Permian Basin. Models have not done a good job capturing this, but the HRRR/NAM suggest this will taper off to the NE by mid-afternoon as the trough moves into the Southern Plains. Skies should clear out overnight as subsidence sets in on the backside of the trough, and coupled w/light and variable sfc winds, will leave West Texas and Southeast New Mexico wide open to a hard freeze for most of the area as radiational cooling is optimized.
347 PM EST Mon Mar 1 2021 Looking at the regional synoptic weather conditions, a cold front is bringing cloudiness and storms from Texas to the entire eastern United States. A broad subtropical ridge located south of Bermuda continues to nose in across our area, allowing for generally benevolent weather conditions. Temperatures this afternoon are in the low 80s across the island communities with dew points in the low 70s. The cold front north of Florida is expected to slowly creep southward through the middle of the week, causing the ridge to flatten out across South Florida and the Florida Keys.
1245 PM EST Mon Mar 1 2021 Behind a cold front, cooler and drier air will move into the area today, as high pressure moves into the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes.
Cloud cover has been diminishing across most of the area this morning though mid and high clouds will likely move back into SE OK later today as an upper level low moves into the region.
1046 AM MST Mon Mar 1 2021 Overview: An upper level ridge over the Intermountain West will build eastward across the Central/Southern Rockies (Today-Tonight) into the Central/Southern Plains (Tue-Wed). A cut-off upper low in the eastern Pacific (~600 miles offshore the CA coast) will meander southward Tue-Tue night. Today-Tonight: A nearly-stalled upper low. Meanwhile, an upper level ridge over the Intermountain West will build eastward into the Central Rockies/High Plains. Tue-Wed night: Light/variable flow aloft will back to the west and undergo modest strengthening in this period as the aforementioned upper ridge flattens /height gradient tightens/ in advance of an upper level low progressing ashore the southern Pacific coast.
Lows tonight will fall into the lower 30s. An upper level low is currently located across western Texas this afternoon. The upper level low will move east tonight and into Arkansas on Tuesday. More cloud cover will linger across south central MO closer to the low. Warmer temperatures will occur on Tuesday as the result to the more expected sun shine. Highs will warm into the middle to upper 50s across the expected area except south central MO, where the lingering clouds will keep temps in the lower 50s. An upper level ridge will build over the region mid week with warm conditions expected.
1004 AM EST Mon Mar 1 2021 Behind a cold front, cooler and drier air will move into the area today, as high pressure moves into the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes. Lingering low level moisture has resulted in the development of stratocumulus to the west of the high clouds.