Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
653 PM EST Tue Jan 17 2017 A weak area of low pressure will move northeast up the Saint Lawrence valley overnight. A secondary low pressure area will form south of Long Island late tonight and will move slowly eastward south of New England on Wednesday. A mix of snow, sleet, freezing rain and rain will be over the North Country overnight through Wednesday.
The exceptions will be the Coteau region which I'll explain next - and around the periphery of the CWA where there is less snow cover (south) and the higher terrain (west). These favorable mixing conditions will allow for the warmer air aloft to mix to the surface and keep temperatures mild overnight and into Wednesday.
More clouds will move into southeast Missouri late in the day as mid-high level moisture streams northeastward ahead of an upper low in the Southern High Plains. The upper low currently over the southwestern U.
917 PM EST Tue Jan 17 2017 While a cold front crossing the region will bring temperatures closer to normal on Wednesday, the entire 7 day forecast period will have above normal temperatures.
533 PM CST Tue Jan 17 2017 What a change a day can make, our storm system has exited the region and has been replaced with full sunshine and warmer temperatures. A weak cut off upper level low will track northeast into our forecast area on Wednesday, but no precipitation is expected with this system. We are really only expecting an increase in mid to high level clouds as this upper low tracks overhead.
The pattern will start out relatively benign in the beginning with just some rain chances across the northern and eastern counties tonight as an upper low passes over the lower Great Lakes Region. As this low passes to the east, high pressure will quickly build into central Indiana behind it, resulting in dry conditions for Wednesday.
Window for possible freezing drizzle appears narrow as well, with low temperatures likely bottoming out right at or just above freezing from the M-59 corridor northward.
Moisture will continue to be limited to mainly the low levels so the scattered to broken cumulus/stratocumulus will persist with little if any chance of rain. Overnight lows will range from the mid 50s to mid 60s with daytime highs on Wednesday from the lower to mid 70s close to the coast, thanks to the shift to onshore with the sea breeze, to the lower 80s inland.
The latest water vapor loop shows an upper level trough axis from southern Lake Michigan across central IL to northeast KS. A majority of the short range models indicate that the trough axis should be out of the forecast area around or shortly after Midnight, ending the spotty light rain. Have kept skies mostly cloudy through the morning, but most of the area should be seeing some sunshine by afternoon as a ridge of high pressure drifts eastward. Wednesday temperatures will be dependent on how fast the low clouds break, but mid-upper 40s appear feasible, especially over the southwest CWA. High pressure moving off to the east will allow moisture to return to the area just ahead of the next weather system coming out of the southern plains.
Subjective 12Z upper-air analysis indicates upper-level trough responsible for the weekend weather now over ON/northern WI/MN, with trough axis extending back through NE/KS/CO/NM toward the Baja. Temperatures at 850mb will be around 5-10C on Wednesday, with the higher temperatures in the northwest CWA and lower in the southeast.
1050 PM EST Tue Jan 17 2017 A weak area of low pressure will move northeast up the Saint Lawrence valley overnight. A secondary low pressure area will form south of Long Island late tonight and will move slowly eastward south of New England on Wednesday. A mix of snow, sleet, freezing rain and rain will be over the North Country overnight through Wednesday.
Went towards the warmer side of guidance lows tonight due to abundant cloud cover to limit radiational cooling.
The challenge remains on details surrounding the upcoming winter storm with regards to warming, snow amounts, and presence of freezing rain. May see areas of freezing rain along the Nevada border Wednesday.
641 PM EST Tue Jan 17 2017 While a cold front crossing the region will bring temperatures closer to normal on Wednesday, the entire 7 day forecast period will have above normal temperatures.
A cold front will be moving through the Southern Appalachian Region tonight.
Latest surface analysis was showing strong high pressure over southern Wyoming where a deep snowpack continues to exist. Meanwhile, the lee side trof has continued to strengthen this afternoon. Meanwhile, areas east of this snowpack, temperatures climbed to the upper 30s to the 40s this afternoon which is a tad warmer than progged by the short range models. As a result, we kept the high wind warning for going for Bordeaux through Wednesday.
Clear skies are expected as a broad area of high pressure settles to the southeast. Lows are forecast to fall into the teens for most locations, but single digits should prevail over Sheridan and Garden Counties as lighter winds are forecast for the higher eastern panhandle. The warmest readings will be over the drier central Sandhills and northern Nebraska where highs in the lower 50s are forecast. The latest guidance may not be warm enough, we did up the forecast values several degrees, but after the lower 50s today, there may be room for improvement yet.
The low pressure system that impacted the region over the weekend has moved well off to the east, leaving split flow aloft in its wake. An upper trough sits from the Plains to the desert southwest, with a closed low over southern Arizona and New Mexico. Temperatures drop into the mid teens to mid 20s overnight, making freezing fog and slick roadways a concern. Wednesday: The low pressure system in the southwestern CONUS lifts northeast into the central Plains. Quiet weather is expected initially in the period across the High Plains. A slow moving upper low will be situated over the plains, slowly migrating east as it undergoes slight intensification. However, with the low already overhead and moving away, am not anticipating any notable precipitation with this system.
642 PM EST Tue Jan 17 2017 A weak area of low pressure will move northeast up the Saint Lawrence valley overnight. A secondary low pressure area will form south of Long Island late tonight and will move slowly eastward south of New England on Wednesday. A mix of snow, sleet, freezing rain and rain will be over the north country overnight through Wednesday.
/issued 649 PM EST Tue Jan 17 2017/ High pressure is forecast to keep the weather quiet under VFR conditions through the TAF period. High temperatures had topped out in the low 80s along the east coast with mid-80s inland, values around 5 degrees above normal for this time of year.
However with warm air advection continuing overnight do expect warmer temperatures for Wednesday. Upper flow begins to turn southwest by late on Wednesday as upper trof begins to dig in towards the California coast.
849 PM EST Tue Jan 17 2017 Adjusted the highest pops a little farther s by the Al border. /Issued 251 PM EST Tue Jan 17 2017/ Ridge of high pressure situated over northeast GA will erode into Wednesday as low pressure approaches the state from the west. As the cold front approaches, the band of enhanced moisture stretching across the Tennessee Valley will sink into north Georgia.
308 PM MST Tue Jan 17 2017 Quiet weather continues through Wednesday under the influence of the slowly moving mid and upper level trough. It is currently located over the 4 corners region and by Wednesday evening it becomes elongated from the southwest to northeast because of the building ridge across the Great Basin. With the decent snow melt that occurred today, and warm advection at 700 mb, expect temperatures to be 7-10 degrees warmer across the urban corridor, reaching the mid 50s on Wednesday. In the mountains, winds will remain light for mid-January standards and temperatures will be in the low 30s on Wednesday.
/Issued 251 PM EST Tue Jan 17 2017/ Ridge of high pressure situated over northeast GA will erode into Wednesday as low pressure approaches the state from the west. As the cold front approaches, the band of enhanced moisture stretching across the Tennessee Valley will sink into north Georgia.
Assuming this stratus isn't too extensive, and assuming we have melted most of the snow/ice by midday, and given how temperatures are behaving today, warmed up Wednesday's highs closer to the warmer 12z MAV guidance (upper 40s and lower 50s).
326 PM MST Tue Jan 17 2017 Upper low over NM will lift back north and eastward over the next 24 hours. Lee troffing tonight will result in better westerly drainage flow near the mountains. should see warmer conditions on Wednesday.
Quiet weather continues through Wednesday under the influence of the slowly moving mid and upper level trough. It is currently located over the 4 corners region and by Wednesday evening it becomes elongated from the southwest to northeast because of the building ridge across the Great Basin. With the decent snow melt that occurred today, and warm advection at 700 mb, expect temperatures to be 7-10 degrees warmer across the urban corridor, reaching the mid 50s on Wednesday. In the mountains, winds will remain light for mid-January standards and temperatures will be in the low 30s on Wednesday.
Have opted to lean toward the slightly warmer MET guidance overnight considering the stubbornness of low level moisture across the region. The center of the weak upper- level low responsible for keeping the cloud cover around will finally drift further to the east and into the high plains early Wednesday morning. A dry day is expected on Wednesday as the axis of the 500mb ridge crosses the UT/CO border by early evening.
Stratus is currently solidly in place across the area, which has kept the temperatures a little cooler than anticipated. In the mid levels a broad and somewhat weak trough is located over the desert southwest and it will ultimately lumber its way northeast into the Central Plains later this week. As this mid level wave moves slowly northeast a weak surface circulation will form across the High Plains, which will effectively cause a warm front to move north of the forecast area, leaving all of eastern Kansas and western Missouri in a bit of a warm sector.
An elongated upper ridge remains draped over California, extending inland toward the northern Rockies.
1041 PM EST Tue Jan 17 2017 Deep ridging is in control this evening, with local Doppler radars void of precipitation echoes. However, winds have been slow to come down across the lower Straits of Florida. The Small Craft Advisory was discontinued for the Straits of Florida zones from Ocean Reef to the west end of the Seven Mile Bridge. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for the lower Straits of Florida. An Atlantic ridge of high pressure will extend across northern Florida overnight and Wednesday.
Weak ridging arrives on Wednesday. Weak high pressure and an increasing southwest wind on Wednesday should bring clearing skies and VFR conditions by mid to late morning on Wednesday. One more upper trough is swinging through WI this afternoon. Temperatures are hovering just above freezing. I expect temperatures to hover just above freezing until this rain moves out, so no mention of freezing rain. Lows tonight will be in the upper 20s, so any wet roads and sidewalks without treatment have a high likelihood of re-freezing overnight.
Warmer weather is in the offing too as temperatures head toward 50 by the weekend.
Rain has moved off to the east with the cold front, which is slowly working its way out of the area. Models want to keep rain chances mainly along the Plateau this evening and even into the early overnight hours as the cold front tries to hang on with the upper low.
Lastly, surface temperatures look to remain well above freezing during the precipitation event so precip should remain liquid. Once precipitation has shifted northward by sunrise Wednesday, there could be enough clearing mainly across the southern South Plains to allow temperatures to drop into the low to mid 30s but do not anticipate any problems if temps fall below freezing in a few spots due to short amount of time. The main low will continue to slowly move northeast with the center pushing into southeast Colorado by Wednesday morning with a trailing, positively tilted trough extending southwest into Mexico. Only uncertainty is how much high cloud cover may be pulled ahead of the trough axis and that could impact high temperatures Wednesday afternoon a bit.
/Issued 218 PM CST Tue Jan 17 2017/ Upper level low moving just east of the bootheel of New Mexico will team up with subtropical moisture to bring a fairly good chance of showers to the region tonight. The upper level low will track northeast tonight and will move into Kansas on Wednesday.
West to southwest winds will continue to bring even warmer 925mb temps into the area, and there should be some decent mixing. Think that mixing and warm air advection will help, but did lean towards the cooler end of the models with mid teens just east of the Red and some upper teens and 20s elsewhere. 500mb ridging will continue through the work week with temps hinging on fog development and clouds.
905 PM EST Tue Jan 17 2017 A warm front will stall out across Maryland tonight. A weak cold front will push through the area early Wednesday.
Weather remains quiet this evening thanks to proximity of Wrn Atlc high pressure.
438 PM CST Tue Jan 17 2017 Update to add a mix of wintry precipitation to the higher elevations of the Guadalupe Mountains. Updated forecast to include mention of snow, freezing rain, and sleet to the higher elevations of the Guadalupe Mountains this evening. The current temperature in The Bowl has hit freezing with precipitation currently falling in and near the Guadalupe Mountains. High resolution models are showing precipitation lingering across that area into this evening with the passage of the upper trough over the area with temperatures falling farther. /issued 100 PM CST Tue Jan 17 2017/ Large upper trough extending from the Canadian border well into Mexico will develop a closed low over the AZ/NM border. This low will slowly slide east the next couple of days as a West Coast trough pushes it along.
323 PM MST Tue Jan 17 2017 Upper low over NM will lift back north and eastward over the next 24 hours. Lee troffing tonight will result in better westerly drainage flow near the mountains. should see warmer conditions on Wednesday.
Warmer weather is in the offing too as temperatures head toward 50 by the weekend. There are areas of drizzle and freezing drizzle across northern Michigan and Wisconsin and this will be moving south. Added some freezing drizzle to the northern zones for overnight.
We again leaned toward the cooler side of guidance for lows tonight and highs on Wednesday. However, some of the guidance keeps overnight lows just a bit cooler than we are right now. Some areas that keep a little wind overnight may not see temperatures drop much, while we think it's wise to allow for at least a little bit of drop over our consistently cooler areas over the far south central and usual low spots.
This should lead to another evening for fog to develop across eastern portions of the area Wednesday, especially in the low lying areas.
Lows tonight will range from the middle- teens across west-central MN to the low 20s across W WI and S MN. As is typical in warm advection regimes in winter, some patchy fog is expected overnight, mainly in low-lying areas where winds are calmer and temperatures locally cooler. Usually in January to achieve mild temperatures (at or above freezing) for the Upper Midwest, you need a zonal flow aloft, and a predominately west/southwest flow near the surface. Once temperatures rise above the freezing mark, and melting starts, the atmosphere in the boundary layer will become saturated.
Cold front has finally cleared the mid state with only a few echoes still showing up along the Plateau this hour. Cooler, drier air is working its way in from the northwest.
1003 PM EST Tue Jan 17 2017 Southwest winds will strengthen tonight as a cold front approaches from the northwest. Showers and a few thunderstorms are expected as the cold front crosses Eastern North Carolina early Wednesday afternoon.
A slow moving cold front continues to make progress eastward across the forecast area. Decent low level lapse rates depicted combined with the low level moisture will likely result in some patchy drizzle or maybe even a few isld sprinkles or showers. Wed highs should be cooler behind the front in the upper 40s/lower 50s.
654 PM EST Tue Jan 17 2017 While a cold front crossing the region will bring temperatures closer to normal on Wednesday, the entire 7 day forecast period will have above normal temperatures.
428 PM MST Tue Jan 17 2017 Latest upper analysis shows the region under the influence of a an upper ridge. The surface analysis depicts a weakly defined N-S oriented trough across the central Dakotas/Nebraska. 850mb temperatures will generally be around 3C warmer than today.
Split flow was converging over Missouri today as a closed off upper low was lurking over the desert southwest.
/Issued 335 PM CST Tue Jan 17 2017/ Main forecast issues for tonight/early Wednesday will be rain chances associated with a compact upper low centered near El Paso this afternoon, and potential for some fog tonight. Rain beginning to spread into north Texas this afternoon in warm conveyor belt east of the upper low. Considerable lightning has been noted through today both in the warm conveyor and near the low center and as the system moves ENE, deeper moisture will begin to spread north into eastern OK this evening and eventually to parts of western AR later tonight.
Cold air advection in the low-levels with warm air advection just above the frontal layer will keep rain chances high across all of south central Texas tonight.
overnight lows should fall slowly into the low 40 to low 50s.
Proton Overall drying weather is expected starting tonight, as upper ridging begins to nose in from the west.
737 PM EDT Thu Mar 16 2017 Canadian high pressure will be centered over the area tonight providing another very cold night with a hard freeze expected. It will be warmer Friday due to a developing southerly flow as the high moves into the Atlantic.
There is a cold frontal pushed noted by surface observations and the new GOES-16 clean window 10. Temperatures will be a cooler but still well above normal.
1021 PM CDT Thu Mar 16 2017 H5 ridging will move across the Northern Plains tonight with a warm nose of +4 to +12C at H85 pushing into the CWA. Some of that warming will go to continuing to melt snow but that coupled with cloud cover will help keep temps at or above freezing in most areas tonight. Right on the heels of this ridge is a cold front from an associated low crossing Saskatchewan and Manitoba. Brisk winds will continue much of Friday night within cold advection and tight gradient on southwest flank of deepening low pressure over the Great Lakes.
1206 AM EDT Fri Mar 17 2017 Dry weather is expected tonight under high pressure.
509 PM MDT Thu Mar 16 2017 20z surface analysis had low near KICR with trough into central WY and cold front into southwest SD into northeast WY. Friday, much cooler day expected. Upper ridge will build over the Rockies and head toward the CWA Friday night.
/issued 221 PM CDT Thu Mar 16 2017/ SHORT TERM (Tonight through Friday Night):Spring time weather continues through the period across Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley as ridging remains in control. Main story for the short term will be the breezy conditions as low pressure develops over the southern Plains. Expect overnight temperatures to be slightly warmer than last night, with lows in the lower to mid 60s. Did go on the warmer side of guidance for highs Friday and bumped temperatures up a degree or so along the Rio Grande out west, where cloud cover may not be as prevalent and winds more moderate.
With temperatures hovering around freezing in Rolette County, we made a few calls and it sounds like there are now a few slick spots on area roads, especially towards the Turtle Mountains. This could lead to winds as high as 35 mph briefly before the pressure gradient relaxes as high pressure moves in.
As the low level jet returns after 03Z, look for gusty south winds to return thru 13z. An upper trough will move southeast across the upper Midwest on Friday, with trailing portion of associated cold front moving south across Oklahoma and into northwestern Texas by Friday evening. With weak surface convergence along the dryline and approaching cold front Friday afternoon, along with limited moisture, the chance for any shower/thunderstorm development in our far northern and northwestern counties looks too remote to mention in the forecast. With low-level thermal ridge building into our area from the west, temperatures Friday afternoon will be rather warm with highs expected to be in the mid to upper 80s.
There have been some breaks in the clouds across the rest of the region, allowing temperatures to climb in the mid 60s northeast to the lower 80s across the northwest.
1046 PM EDT Thu Mar 16 2017 High pressure builds over the local area tonight.
Low temperatures will still be cooler than normal across South Florida ranging from the low to mid 40s for the west and upper 40s to mid 50s along the east coast. Due to Wind chills will range between the low to mid 40s for most of the west and interior and upper 40s to mid 50s east coast metro areas. /issued 340 PM EDT Thu Mar 16 2017/ SHORT TERM (Tonight through Friday) After the passage of cold front last night high pressure located off the southeast continues to dominate South Florida weather tonight.
Warmer lows are expected tonight with temperatures expected to fall into the 50s and 60s across much of the area. A cold front will move through mid day Fri resulting in a wind shift from the NE and slowly clearing skies from north to south.
Updated forecast to lower temps closer to freezing across east Alabama, but still expect clouds to expand eastward overnight, which should keep temperatures at or just above freezing.
This cloud cover will also limit cooling, with overnight lows in the low to mid 40s across much of the area. /issued 326 PM CDT Thu Mar 16 2017/ Skies are partly cloudy across the forecast area this afternoon with temperatures from the lower 40s to lower 50s. High pressure is now east of the region which allowed winds to shift to the south. A warm front will move across the Mid-Mississippi valley overnight. Temperatures will be much milder than this morning with lows Friday morning in the low to mid 40s. On Friday, a cold front will approach the region from the northwest. Temperatures will be much warmer with highs mainly in the 60s. The cold front will move through the region Friday night with more showers and isolated thunderstorms expected mainly during the evening hours.
A cold front will move through mid day Fri resulting in a wind shift from the NE and slowly clearing skies from north to south.
826 PM MDT Thu Mar 16 2017 Quasi-cold front associated with jet stream aloft was moving slowly through our region this evening. Showers along this feature are lingering in our east and south, and have produced some squally type winds up to 52 mph at Miles City and 42 mph at Sheridan thanks to steep lapse rates in the lower to mid levels. Cold front moved through the entire area by 15Z and was followed by 3 hour pressure rises in the 2-3 mb range, as well as deep mixing, which created wind gusts in the 25 to 35 mph range.
Increased moisture in the low layers, will lead to increasing low clouds/stratus over SE KS late this evening, with moisture depth actually increasing enough for at least some areas of fog and possibly some patchy drizzle after midnight, especially for SE KS. Drier air pushing south will scour out most of the low level moisture/drizzle/fog from SE KS by Fri afternoon as well.
753 PM EDT Thu Mar 16 2017 High pressure will slide off to the south of the region tonight.