Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Upper and surface ridging can be expected producing continued dry conditions and unseasonably warm afternoons. Tuesday evening the frontal near the Ohio River Valley will remain relatively stationary as synoptic forcing largely remains well north of it and high pressure begins to build in westward from the Atlantic Ocean.
/Issued 1020 AM CDT Mon Oct 19 2020/ Cold front through the area as of mid morning with areas of light rain/drizzle and some patchy fog ongoing mainly to the north of I-40. Boundary to begin lifting back north tonight and tomorrow, resulting in warmer temperatures for Tuesday.
Areas along and east of U283 will struggle to escape the lower to mid 50s. The official forecast will add in some additional weight of the cooler NAM and WRF-ARW models, which did fairly well with yesterday's temperatures during the afternoon hours -- especially the NAM. Again, cooler NAM and WRF-ARW models are preferred in this pattern over the straight NBM, which is some 10-15 degrees warmer than the WRF-ARW/NAM consensus of 21Z Tuesday temperature along and east of U283.
1130 AM MDT Mon Oct 19 2020 The Hudson Bay vortex hand analyzed on 19/00Z H500 map will be forced northward over the next 24 hours by upstream energy rotating through the large gyre of low pressure covering much of NOAM. The high level cloudiness may have something to say about this and confidence not high enough to widespread conditions and fire headlines attm.
Afternoon temperatures will be similar to yesterday with highs near 50 although western areas could be a few degrees warmer if the sun peaks through the clouds. As a lee trough deepens across the High Plains on Tuesday morning, 850mb winds become southerly and strengthen, advecting moisture over the warm front as it begins to progress north.
/Updated at 1201 PM CDT Mon Oct 19 2020/ Forecast looks up to date for the next 36 hours as high pressure is set to remain in control with clear skies and warm unseasonable temperatures.
A mid-level trough will set up over Texas Monday night into Tuesday and linger, leading to quasi-zonal flow.
These are associated with the stalled cold front draped across the area right around I-40.
745 PM EDT Mon Oct 19 2020 High pressure ridging continuing over the area. High pressure centered to our NE ridging SW into the W Carolinas and NE GA. High pressure aloft will be centered along the Southeast U.
608 PM MDT Mon Oct 19 2020 The High Wind Warning was allowed to expire at 6 PM MDT for the Laramie Valley. Therefore, the High Wind Warnings will remain in effect for these areas through midday Tuesday. Strong winds continue as the pressure gradients persist over the higher terrain causing winds 60mph+ this morning through the early afternoon.
Current surface analysis places high stretching from southern Saskatchewan into the upper Midwest to the eastern Great Lakes, with trough over the eastern Rockies. Warmer air aloft works its way into the southwest, with a layer of above freezing temperatures pushing in after midnight. This may result in a little wintry mix with some light freezing rain or sleet. This will keep light precipitation continuing into the morning before tapering off from west to east towards mid-day into the afternoon as the wave pushes east and modest ridging starts to build in.
In the upper levels, the flow is generally zonal across the Plains lifting up to a ridge off the east coast.
Temperatures will remain close to 10 degrees above normal through at least the middle of the week with cooler weather arriving at the end of the workweek and into the weekend. High pressure will ensure persistent dry conditions with only occasional high clouds and periods of elevated smoke. The weather pattern remains stagnant with a longwave flow pattern nearly identical to the past several days with a stationary Hudson Bay vortex coupled with East Pacific Rex blocking. A weak subtropical jet is extending from the low pressure associated with the Rex Block to just south of the CWA.
Guidance continues to signal for another round of dense fog mainly along/south of the Highway 84 corridor. /EC/ Prior discussion below: Tonight and Tomorrow: The short term period will remain quiet thanks to a high pressure and ridging aloft centered over the Carolinas.
The aforementioned boundary will lift off to the north as a warm front during the day.
And with current dewpoint temperatures in the lower to middle 40s, tonight's low temperatures are expected to be slightly milder than last night.
/EC/ Tonight and Tomorrow: The short term period will remain quiet thanks to a high pressure and ridging aloft centered over the Carolinas.
Expect the lower clouds in north central Kansas to diminish tonight. Winds from the south should keep temperatures above freezing again.
543 PM MDT Mon Oct 19 2020 Strong winds continue as the pressure gradients persist over the higher terrain causing winds 60mph+ this morning through the early afternoon.
Tuesday: Another upper level trough swinging across the Midwest will bring accumulating snows to MN and northern WI. However, for the dvn cwa we will be on the "warmer" side of the system with highs pushing into the upper 40s to mid 50s on southeast winds. Tuesday Night Areas of light rain may linger across eastern Iowa and northwest Illinois through 8-10 PM before quickly shifting to the east as low pressure tracks over Lake Michigan. Overnight lows are forecast to range from the mid 30s northwest to the lower 40s central and south.
The only concern in the short term remains limited near-critical fire weather conditions in the lower elevations. Its no secret that the lower atmosphere remains anomalously dry. These areas are often very limited in coverage and time due to cooler temperatures where the highest winds are occurring.
Increasing southerly flow will aid in a bit warmer temperatures for Tuesday as well.
736 PM EDT Mon Oct 19 2020 A cold front will stall across the region through tonight. This will allow several waves of low pressure with its associated rain to cross the region.
Temps ranged from the lower 50s at Corning, AR to the lower 80s over north MS. The front will slowly lift north as a warm front Tuesday afternoon and evening, as the southeast upper ridge builds and displaces the polar jet northward to mid/upper MS River valley. Warm and humid conditions will prevail over the Midsouth through the latter portion of the week, under the western periphery of a subtropical height ridge along the Carolina coast.
Forecast looks up to date for the next 36 hours as high pressure is set to remain in control with clear skies and warm unseasonable temperatures.
651 PM CDT Mon Oct 19 2020 Broad upper trough remains from the Northern Rockies into the Great Lakes. NAM and GFS currently have big disagreements on how far north the warmer air makes it on Tue. The GFS lifts the warm front much further north compared to the NAM with the GFS having some support from the RAP and ECMWF. So currently have a small lean to temps being closer to the warmer GFS tomorrow, placing the warm front across southern KS. Strong southwest winds are expected during the day Thu ahead of the cold front, with wind advisory speeds likely for much of the area. Strong cold front is expected to push through Thu night into early Fri morning.
At this time, forecasted low temperatures will be slightly above freezing (34-36 degrees). Of course, there could be a few isolated locations that have temperatures drop to freezing or slightly below and may see a wet snowflake or two.
The upper level pattern is characterized by broad troughing across the CONUS with an upper ridge across the western Atlantic into the Eastern Seaboard. Winds should remain around 5-10 mph tonight with high pressure centered just to the northeast across the central and southern Appalachians with low pressure along the frontal boundary to the northwest.
Meanwhile further south, a wave of low pressure tracking along the stalled front is triggering an area of showers from southeast Missouri across south-central Illinois. Rainfall with this system will generally range from one quarter to three quarters of an inch, with the highest totals focused across eastern Illinois.
633 PM CDT Mon Oct 19 2020 (This evening through Tuesday) Clearing has developed rapidly across the southern half of the area, allowing temperatures to warm into the lower 80s along the I-10 corridor, while remaining in the low to mid 50s along/north of I-10.
Temperatures will turn cooler by midweek upon the approach of a weather system from the north.
Showers and storms are likely once again tomorrow with the highest coverage over southwest Florida. Interaction between a trough of low pressure south of Florida and strong high pressure over the eastern seaboard will continue to produce gusty east-northeast winds over the gulf coast waters over the next couple of days.
What is likely is temperatures will remains above freezing overnight, and the stratus should have a significant impact of holding temps up well above the mid 30s in many areas. A warm front will be lifting northward across Texas on Tuesday, and is forecast to reach the KS/OK line sometime early Tuesday evening.
These spokes of vorticity are rotating around the sharpening trough axis southwest of western Cuba.
A weak cold front will bring more snow tonight into Tuesday morning, primarily along the Divide and over the Little Belt Mountains.
Warm and humid conditions are ongoing across the region this afternoon along the west edge of a ridge centered over the Mid-Atlantic coast. Locally between the front and the ridge a few showers have been ongoing since before sunrise over SE TX, but have spread into West LA as well. Tuesday night the front and ridge axis is expected to lift north.
1036 PM EDT Mon Oct 19 2020 A cold front will stall across the region through tonight. This will allow several waves of low pressure with its associated rain to cross the region.
/issued 217 PM CDT Mon Oct 19 2020/ A series of upper troughs will bring cooler wx to the region. A broad upper trough across the center of the country today will be reinforced Tuesday with a northern stream trough that moves through quickly.
Breezy conds are likely across the wrn (especially nwrn) SD plains tomorrow as sfc trof shifts to our east. Pressure rises of 3-5 mb/3 hr and BL winds increasing to 30-35 kt should support some gusts close to advisory criteria late morning through the aftn as drier midlevel air behind the trof facilitates mixing.
640 PM CDT Mon Oct 19 2020 Latest water vapor imagery is showing one upper trough move across the Midwest that is moving east this afternoon. Another area of showers associated with the upper trough is moving northeast across eastern Missouri into southwest Illinois. Latest runs of the CAMS/RAP suggest that this first round of showers will move out of the CWA this evening as this trough moves east of the Midwest. Then the focus points toward another upper trough dropping down out of the northern Rockies. Rain will likely develop by Tuesday afternoon ahead of the system in the warm air advection pattern and continue along the cold front that will move through the area on Tuesday night.
305 AM EDT Tue Oct 20 2020 A nearly stationary front across Ohio will gradually shift back to the north as a warm front through Tuesday afternoon.
A stronger cold front will track through the region late in the work week. Clouds will linger on Tuesday, but low level waa will help push highs into the lower 70s in the northeast KY to around 60 degrees in West Central Ohio. With high pressure anchored off the east coast, the mid level disturbance will be lifting into southern Ontario Wednesday morning via brisk southwesterly flow. Showers north of I-70 will decrease through the morning hours, with ridging building back into the forecast area by afternoon.
347 AM CDT Tue Oct 20 2020 Today and Tonight: High pressure aloft and at the surface remain in place across the region. Otherwise, lows will again fall into the low and middle 60s.
The warm front will gradually lift through the day today, resulting in warm moist advection.
And with current dewpoint temperatures in the lower to middle 40s, tonight's low temperatures are expected to be slightly milder than last night. Upper level trough will drop south along the British Columbia coast on Wednesday.
208 AM CDT Tue Oct 20 2020 Southerly return flow across the southwest side of the high pressure over the Midwest will allow for slightly warmer, moist air to funnel northwest into our forecast area during the early morning hrs next few days. Perhaps a degree cooler tomorrow as 850mb temps are down a peg. Short term guidance has enough instability accompanying the higher terrain later this afternoon with primary target across the eastern Davis and Glass mtns, so a few pulse showers and storms are possible down south in the aforementioned areas (PoPs have been added to reflect).
142 AM EDT Tue Oct 20 2020 High pressure ridging continuing over the area. High pressure centered to our NE ridging SW into the W Carolinas and NE GA. High pressure aloft will be centered along the Southeast U.
Extended starts out with a broad CONUS trough, with the mean core flow stretching from the Pacific Northwest generally just south of the Northern Tier into the Great Lakes. Pattern shifts from that point, becoming more amplified with time, and ending with a deep positively tilted trough from the northern Plains southwest to the Baja of California. This pattern will tend to keep any frontal zones to our west-northwest, and our weather warmer than normal as we reside in the warm sector of passing storm systems.
Warm air and theta-e advection ahead of this trough continues to support scattered rain/snow/wintry mix across the northern half of the forecast area this morning.
Like yesterday, thinking cooler high resolution model solutions (i.
1146 PM CDT Mon Oct 19 2020 Latest water vapor imagery is showing one upper trough move across the Midwest that is moving east this afternoon. Another area of showers associated with the upper trough is moving northeast across eastern Missouri into southwest Illinois. Latest runs of the CAMS/RAP suggest that this first round of showers will move out of the CWA this evening as this trough moves east of the Midwest. Then the focus points toward another upper trough dropping down out of the northern Rockies. Rain will likely develop by Tuesday afternoon ahead of the system in the warm air advection pattern and continue along the cold front that will move through the area on Tuesday night.
During the day Wednesday, a leeward low off the Rockies strengthens in W OK and W KS encouraging warm frontogenesis across the boundary.
The area will remain under a very broad trof during the short term period. A cold front was located across Arkansas this afternoon, which was resulting in a temperature differential of nearly 30 degrees between northwest Arkansas and the southeast. This front will sag further southward into central Arkansas overnight, will stall out, and will turn back north as a warm front tomorrow. As the warm front pushes back to the north tomorrow, most of the area will see diminishing POPs, with partial clearing tomorrow night.
At the surface, a cold front remains stalled out near Memphis while a wedge of high pressure remains along the East Coast extending into Central Alabama, resulting in light easterly to southeasterly winds. At upper levels, a broad trough is over the northern CONUS while a subtropical ridge centered near the Outer Banks of North Carolina extends southwestward to the Deep South. An inverted trough/tropical wave is located from the western Caribbean northward to the Florida peninsula. Continued ridging will result in another warm and dry day across Central Alabama. Little change in the pattern occurs on Wednesday other than a small weakness in the ridge/broad mid-level circulation developing over south Georgia and north Florida.
CD Chattanooga Airport, TN 79 58 81 61 81 / 0 0 0 0 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 78 54 79 57 80 / 0 0 0 0 10 Oak Ridge, TN 77 54 80 57 80 / 0 0 0 0 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 77 52 78 54 78 / 0 0 0 0 10.
1152 PM MDT Mon Oct 19 2020 The High Wind Warning was allowed to expire at 6 PM MDT for the Laramie Valley. Therefore, the High Wind Warnings will remain in effect for these areas through midday Tuesday. Strong winds continue as the pressure gradients persist over the higher terrain causing winds 60mph+ this morning through the early afternoon.
Enhanced easterly flow over the region will advect increased amounts of moisture into the low and mid-levels starting today.
It will be a bit warmer than yesterday with highs primarily in the middle to upper 50s.
1132 PM CDT Mon Oct 19 2020 Broad upper trough remains from the Northern Rockies into the Great Lakes. NAM and GFS currently have big disagreements on how far north the warmer air makes it on Tue. The GFS lifts the warm front much further north compared to the NAM with the GFS having some support from the RAP and ECMWF. So currently have a small lean to temps being closer to the warmer GFS tomorrow, placing the warm front across southern KS. Strong southwest winds are expected during the day Thu ahead of the cold front, with wind advisory speeds likely for much of the area. Strong cold front is expected to push through Thu night into early Fri morning.
1216 AM CDT Tue Oct 20 2020 (This evening through Tuesday) Clearing has developed rapidly across the southern half of the area, allowing temperatures to warm into the lower 80s along the I-10 corridor, while remaining in the low to mid 50s along/north of I-10.
Expect a few showers and thunderstorms early this morning before the front lifts north as a warm front. Sunshine will be on the increase and temps will climb to the lower 80s across much of the Mid-South save NE AR where temps should remain in the 70s.
Light to moderate onshore flow will continue our warm temperatures today, with highs in the low 80s to low 90s. This mid-level trough will linger across the area through Wednesday, keeping the forecast relatively stagnant through the short term period.
332 AM EDT Tue Oct 20 2020 High pressure ridging continuing over the area with above normal temperatures through the end of the week. An upper level ridge over the western Atlantic will continue to extend into the southeastern states.
827 PM PDT Mon Oct 19 2020 A persistent ridge aloft will gradually give way to a broad troughing over the West as cold Canadian air sags south.
A broad upper level trough remains in place over the northern CONUS leaving the southern part of the country under a weak flow regime. Low temps tonight will be in the low to mid 60s. High temps will range from the low to mid 80s inland on Tuesday with temps between 79 to 82 degrees near the coast. Into Tuesday night and Wednesday morning the same pattern persists with the broad upper level trough beginning to lift out over the northern CONUS, while a trough begins to dig over the western CONUS. At the surface, over our CWA, high pressure will continue to ridge into the region from the northeast.
310 AM EDT Tue Oct 20 2020 The ridge from the Carolinas into the Atlantic will change little in strength and position. The area of low pressure in the western Caribbean is a little deeper than this time yesterday. NHC gives small chances of any rapid deepening so the gradient will be be similar to yesterday albeit a little less because the lowest pressures to our south will be moving west toward the Yucatan.
Upper level ridge remaining well offshore with weak system moving through the area later Tuesday.
334 AM CDT Tue Oct 20 2020 Warm front currently from east central TX arcing through extreme SE OK and into west central AR has made slow advance northward per 3hr temp trends in OK Mesonet data in SE OK. Similar to yesterday the forecast will side to a less aggressive warm frontal push northward with extensive cloud cover and morning precip acting to retard the cold air erosion. Warm front continues northward on Wednesday but again may struggle to entirely clear areas near the OK / KS border.
Front will make a push north as a warm front fairly quickly after sunrise, with much warmer conditions returning. A little patchy drizzle possible this morning north of the returning warm front, but overall, dry conditions will continue.
619 AM EDT Tue Oct 20 2020 A nearly stationary front across Ohio will gradually shift back to the north as a warm front through Tuesday afternoon.
Today Through Wednesday Night A quasi-stationary cold front remains roughly parallel to the interstate corridor stretching from Texarkana to Little Rock to Memphis. N of this boundary, much colder air resides on the Srn fringes of a high pressure over the Upper MS Valley. Meanwhile S of the boundary, temperatures were mild and dew points were fairly high on the Wrn periphery of tropical high pressure along the N and S Carolina Coasts. Temperatures will rebound nicely today with highs topping out in the lower/mid 80s over the Srn half of the state. Any precipitation should be confined to Nrn and NWrn AR invof the warm front over portions of Srn MO.
409 AM CDT Tue Oct 20 2020 Unseasonably warm and muggy conditions are expected through the middle to latter part of the week as broad high pressure remains along the east coast.
Ridging at all levels from VA and the Carolinas westward over the TN valley will provide us with mainly clear skies and mild temperatures to start the period.
/issued 208 AM CDT Tue Oct 20 2020/ Southerly return flow across the southwest side of the high pressure over the Midwest will allow for slightly warmer, moist air to funnel northwest into our forecast area during the early morning hrs next few days. Perhaps a degree cooler tomorrow as 850mb temps are down a peg. Short term guidance has enough instability accompanying the higher terrain later this afternoon with primary target across the eastern Davis and Glass mtns, so a few pulse showers and storms are possible down south in the aforementioned areas (PoPs have been added to reflect).
Low level flow will start to increase out of the south, just off the surface, in response to an approaching upper trough. Wednesday Night, the low level winds will really ramp up as the mentioned upper trough approaches the Northern Plains. The degree of low level warm advection will finally overwhelm the remnant shallow cool dome, and we may likely see temperatures slowly rise through the night into the lower 60s.
402 AM CDT Tue Oct 20 2020 Early this morning, broad upper ridging was present across the majority of the CONUS with zonal flow over the Plains. Kept with cooler temperatures on Wednesday thinking the front will be slower to move into the forecast area.
Another Canadian cold front will move southward through the region on Wednesday, resulting in another round of rain and snow.
333 AM PDT Tue Oct 20 2020 High pressure will stick around through Wednesday with mild and dry conditions continuing.
922 AM EDT Tue Oct 20 2020 A nearly stationary front across Ohio will gradually shift back to the north as a warm front through Tuesday afternoon.
858 AM CDT Tue Oct 20 2020 This morning is off to a mild start with temps currently in the lower 60s. A stationary front will linger off to our NW today and could send some cloud cover our way, otherwise high pressure in place will keep conditions dry across the TN Valley. Skies will be mostly sunny with daytime highs pushing into the lower 80s, which is about 10 degrees above normal.
537 AM EDT Tue Oct 20 2020 A cold front will cross the region today, then stall across the Gulf of Maine tonight. A warm front will lift across the area Wednesday. A cold front will cross the region Wednesday night.
Stout onshore flow will continue for another 24h as the mid-upper trough over FL drifts very slowly NW-N.
Early this morning, broad upper ridging was present across the majority of the CONUS with zonal flow over the Plains. Kept with cooler temperatures on Wednesday thinking the front will be slower to move into the forecast area.