Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
400 AM EDT Sat Jul 15 2017 A cold front and associated low pressure area move east of the region this morning. Weak high pressure then builds in from the west thereafter through Sunday evening. A cold front will slowly approach from the west for late Sunday night.
633 AM EDT Sat Jul 15 2017 Slightly drier and cooler through tonight under weak high pressure.
This AM at the surface we have a low over New England with a cold front extending southward toward Long Island and southwest across VA/TN and back into OK. An upper level trough extends through the Great Lakes and into the Central Appalachians on Saturday. This trough digs southward over the weekend and stretches a weak cold front from the trough axis.
On Sunday, a weak eddy of low pressure will still be wobbling over eastern CO in the morning which may again provide enough moisture and instability for some thunderstorms over the cwa in the aftn. For the rest of the upcoming week, a broad ridge of high pressure will stretch from the Desert Southwest into the southern Great Plains. The best chc of storms will be over the high country with more isolated coverage across the eastern plains.
339 AM CDT Sat Jul 15 2017 High pressure across the central Prairie Provinces of Canada into the Northern Plains will maintain a quiet weather pattern across the region today. Skies will be mainly sunny with decidedly cooler temperatures especially north central where highs will be in the mid 70s.
The surface cold front has moved into northwest MN at this time and should move to KRPD-KMSP-KULM line by 19z.
The passage of a cold front tonight will produce breezy west winds Sunday. Today: Elevated forced convection in the form of thunderstorms will continue to run up the west side of a ridge of high pressure with an axis placed over Montana. Tonight through Sunday night: The ridge axis is displaced further east and oriented almost over the Montana and Dakotas border and thus any convection firing up and following the eastern edge of the ridge gets shifted east and away from Eastern Washington and Northern Idaho as well. End result is a weak trof takes hold over Eastern Washington and Northern Idaho and lingers there through this interval.
Upper level analysis shows main summer time ridge over the Rockies and Great Basin with the Bermuda ridge edging into the SE U. A short wave trough over the Great Lakes has helped a weakness in the ridging to develop over the Ohio/Miss River valleys.
644 AM EDT Sat Jul 15 2017 Dry and pleasant weather will persist today as high pressure drifts south across the Great Lakes region.
with highs in the low 80s to low 90s. As a result of the slightly cooler temps.
545 AM CDT Sat Jul 15 2017 A weak high pressure ridge remains in control of the weather across Central Illinois this morning. And with slightly drier air in place, the warm temperatures in the low 80s with plenty of sunshine and light winds will result in a mild, pleasant day for Central Illinois. Overnight tonight, the ridge axis shifts to the east and the winds become increasingly south/southwesterly, starting a prolonged period of warm air advection into the region that will bring a warming trend into the work week.
A broad ridge of high pressure remains anchored over the western and central CONUS, with a 597 dm high analyzed via the 15/00Z upper plots to be near Las Vegas Nevada.
The cold front was located over southern MO and was developing isolated convection. Forecast will keep some convection chances over the state tonight, as well as some patchy fog will be added due to moisture in the lowest levels. Tonight Through Sunday Arkansas will remain just east of an upper ridge through the short term period. A cold front will slowly move through the state through the weekend. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected periodically through Sunday as short waves rotate around the high pressure system to the west.
244 AM EDT Sat Jul 15 2017 Weak high pressure will bring fair conditions to NY and PA today. The upper level trough axis will set up over New England today. In the large scale, the overall troughy and unsettled pattern will continue over the northeast.
High pressure centered near the Four Corners region continues to keep the area under dry and warm conditions. Ridging will build slightly westward this weekend and combine with a suppressed marine layer to continue the warming trend for the weekend.
422 AM MDT Sat Jul 15 2017 Weak upper level circulation centered near Pueblo this morning, with a few light showers/sprinkles rotating around the low over the eastern mountains and plains as of 10z. Farther west, from the I-25 corridor back into the mountains, moisture and instability remain plentiful, so another round of afternoon convection looks likely to develop over the higher terrain early in the afternoon, spreading across lower elevations late in the day.
344 AM MDT Sat Jul 15 2017 The cyclonic circulation trapped under the ridge appears to have cleared the divide overnight as is spinning over the eastern High Plains of Colorado. Temperatures remain above normal with triple digits found over the lower desert valleys of southwest CWA. As would be expected this time of year the stronger energy is in the higher latitudes. Some of this energy is forecast to eject from the Low of the Left Coast and travel through the Canadian Prairies before being absorbed by a large circulation over Northeast NOAM. The ridge appears to be strong enough to deflect the stronger westerlies to the north though the ridge axis will be slowly pushes east onto the Plains by mid week.
Second thing that will influence temperatures will be a relatively weak cold front that is forecast to set up over portions of the forecast area. Temps will fall a few degrees more than recent nights due to slightly cooler air coming in behind the front. Upper ridge remains dominant across the region into Sunday, but temperatures should be a little cooler than today, especially in eastern areas, with boundary just south of the CWA and less mixy southeast flow across the area.
645 AM EDT Sat Jul 15 2017 A cold front is currently clearing the forecast area this morning with cooler and drier conditions expected for the weekend.
Otherwise, high pressure in the mid to upper levels will shift northward to a position over the Nevada/Arizona/Utah border.
334 AM EDT Sat Jul 15 2017 Slightly drier and cooler through tonight under weak high pressure.
343 AM CDT Sat Jul 15 2017 The cold front continues to inch southward across the CWA early this morning and is running nearly parallel to and just north of Interstate 40.
611 AM EDT Sat Jul 15 2017 High pressure over the Mid Mississippi Valley will drift slowly east across the forecast area today. The high will slide SE Sunday allowing a cold front to push across the forecast area Sunday night. High pressure centered over the Mid Mississippi will drift slowly east today. The high slides SE Sunday allowing a cold front to approach from the NW.
524 AM EDT Sat Jul 15 2017 Low pressure will approach from the western Great Lakes region today, but weaken and dissipate before it reaches Maine. A cold front will begin to cross the region then stall later Sunday into Sunday night. Although a cold upper trough will cross the area, conditions at the surface will be symptomatic of a warm front with a cool and dry air mass being overrun by a warmer and more humid air mass from the south. In contrast, the onshore flow along the coast will keep highs in the low to mid 60s. Lows tonight will be in the upper 50s to around 60F except a bit cooler on the coast. A cold front will move south Sunday then stall across the forecast area Sunday night.
401 AM EDT Sat Jul 15 2017 A cold front will cross the region early today, with weak high pressure gaining control of the weather through this weekend. Another Surface front looks to be lingering across PA early this morning, snaking to low pressure offshore. Cloud cover is likely mitigating more widespread fog issues as dew points remain in the lower 70s. While it will be cooler than the past several days, temperatures aloft will only be falling slowly. Weak high pressure will be located west of the area tonight and will provide tranquil conditions. Troughing will be moving into the eastern Great Lakes by that time, so it's not out of the question.
340 AM CDT Sat Jul 15 2017 As of 08Z an upper level ridging across the Rockies to inch its axis towards the central and northern Plains. Upper trough across the northeastern CONUS continues to eject northeast. At the surface, high pressure center across western IL/eastern IA continues to sink southward within the Mississippi Valley.
SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday): The short term forecast will continue to be rather benign for Saturday as subsidence continues to affect Deep South Texas and the RGV in the wake of the inverted trough exiting across West Texas. By Saturday night into Sunday, the next round of tropical moisture will approach as yet another inverted trough moves into the coastal waters. The upper level pattern looks to keep much of the moisture funneled between the inverted trough and the high pressure over the Southern Plains, pushing the best moisture to our north. This will in turn keep high temperatures lower on Sunday, and have generally left them at 2 to 4 degrees cooler than today.
121 AM EDT Sat Jul 15 2017 Atlantic high pressure will persist across the region through Saturday.
253 AM EDT Sat Jul 15 2017 An upper level trough will cross northern New England today, while weak low pressure passes to our south. Scattered showers and widely scattered thunderstorms will occur along and in advance of this trough today. As the trough exits tonight, clearing and drier weather can be expected that will last into Sunday.
Highs will be fairly close to normal, near 90 to the lower 90s and lows in the mid to upper 60s.
918 AM MDT Sat Oct 28 2017 Updated to add light freezing drizzle to zone 58 for this morning. This has helped keep overnight temperatures in the lower 30s across much of the Plains. an upper trough over the Missouri Valley will continue east away from Colorado while high pressure builds along the West Coast. With clearing skies tonight, temperatures will likely fall into the lower to mid 30s across the region.
/issued 349 AM CDT Sat Oct 28 2017/ The cold front has moved well east of the forecast area and much colder, drier air will continue to filter into the Mid-South today. Despite the drier low-level air moving into the region, scattered diurnal clouds are expected to develop as moisture aloft wraps around the backside of the upper-level cyclone. Highs today will be in the lower 50s for the most part.
611 AM CDT Sat Oct 28 2017 The strong upper level positively tilted trough which brought the first freeze to the region this morning will be moving off to the east. Temperatures will be warmer today but the extent of cloud cover over the area may keep temps down some. Late evening and into the overnight time frame, another cold front will move through the region bring the temperatures back down. This will allow this next cold front to come through the region dry.
606 AM CDT Sat Oct 28 2017 301 AM CDT The upper level trough axis will rotate overhead this morning, and isolated sprinkles/flurries will come to an end. Subsidence behind the upper level trough may produce a couple of holes in the stratus, but I think we will be a struggle to have clouds completely scatter out. Increased cloud cover will lead to warmer overnight lows, but breaks in clouds may allow temperatures to fall well below freezing in isolated locations. We may even see a few peaks of sunshine before the next wave/cold front arrives Sunday night.
Locally Heavy Rainfall Possible This Afternoon and Tonight Latest satellite imagery shows considerable clouds streaming north ahead of Potential Tropical Cyclone Eighteen (PTC #18), indicative of the rapid moistening that is expected to take place over the next 6 to 12 hours. While the highest rainfall amounts directly associated with PTC #18 will remain across south Florida as it passes through the Straits of Florida, a secondary band of enhanced precipitation is likely to develop further to the north, where enhanced low-level moisture convergence and favorable dynamics aloft intersect. High temps today should reach the lower 80s across the north half and should be held down into the upper 70s in the south due to clouds/precip. The pressure gradient will tighten between retreating ridge to our northeast and low pressure lifting northeastward out of the northwest Caribbean.
/Issued 328 AM EDT Sat Oct 28 2017/ A cold front is about to enter far nw GA and is forecast to move across the area today and this evening. With increased winds tonight, freezing temperatures or frost are not likely.
1032 AM CDT Sat Oct 28 2017 A freeze warning remains in effect through early Sunday morning as another night of sub-freezing temperatures is expected. Areas around Tulsa and Fort Smith were a bit warmer, ranging from 28-31 degrees. Full sunshine will allow it to warm into the upper 40s to low/mid 50s, but it will be even warmer on Sunday, as winds return to southerly.
Quiet weather is expected for the next couple of days as the Pacific Northwest is under a strong ridge of high pressure.
908 AM EDT Sat Oct 28 2017 High pressure will move to the east of the region today.
An area of low pressure will be the dominant weather feature in the short term. Tried to limit the mention the snow and freezing rain for now as the probability for mixed pcpn is low. Based on the amount of CAA behind the cold front, would not be surprised if temperatures slowly fall Sunday afternoon.
1106 AM EDT Sat Oct 28 2017 High pressure will move to the east of the region today.
647 AM MDT Sat Oct 28 2017 Cloudy conditions over the CWA under a northerly upper wind flow between an upper ridge over the western CONUS and a large upper trough from the Great Lakes area into the southern plains. Expect the clouds to hold across the CWA for most of the day today with even a few snow showers possible over the higher mtns as a weak impulse drops south across the CWA. Warmer today but favored the cooler guidance given the ample cloud cover expected. Sunday will start off mainly clear then the next cold front will pass across in the afternoon.
1054 AM EDT Sat Oct 28 2017 A strong cold front is moving through the area this morning. Surface observations show the front located NE to SW across the valley with temperatures dropping quickly into the upper 30s to mid 40s in the wake of the cold front. Ahead of the front, temperatures are much warmer in the mid 50s to lower 60s across NE TN and parts of SW VA. Setup seems to favor drizzle/freezing drizzle and ice riming rather than light snow across the higher terrain late tonight and Sunday. Chattanooga Airport, TN 55 35 50 34 / 90 10 10 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 55 37 46 32 / 100 30 10 10 Oak Ridge, TN 55 36 46 32 / 100 20 10 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 59 36 44 29 / 80 80 30 20.
A sunny day is expected, but temperatures will be well below normal as northwest winds continue to bring in drier and cooler air. North of the Interstate 30 corridor, temperatures have dropped below freezing, and there are still another few hours of cooling to go before sunrise. The Canadian airmass should spread even farther south, and below freezing temperatures are expected across nearly the entire area. However, the decision was made to include some of these areas in the Freeze Warning for tonight/Sunday morning to better maintain consistency with surrounding offices and because as of the issuance of this forecast, some of the areas warned for this morning have not yet fallen below freezing.
Otherwise, some model discrepancies concerning timing of moisture associated with upper level low advecting into mid state region.
Strong cold high pressure will continue building into the region in the wake of late night's frontal passage. /19/ Prior discussion below: Today and Tonight: The cold front has moved to the east of the area early this morning, but some post-frontal showers are continuing mainly for areas along and east of the Natchez Trace. Strong cold air advection will prevail through the day with high temperatures only climbing into the low/mid 50s.
Winds will increase tonight over western foothills locations ahead of a cold front that arrives in the early morning hours tonight. A few inches of snowfall is likely in the high country as well through tomorrow evening. Cold air advection and winds pick up over the eastern zones Sunday afternoon as precipitation linger over the northern slopes of the high country.
Due to extensive cloud cover, widespread precipitation and gusty winds, temperatures will hold in the lower 80s along the island chain.
Today, the upper level ridge remains in control, and will keep the area quite a bit warmer than normal. We should not see highs today approach so closely to records as yesterday (Medford missed tying the daily record by just one degree), due to both higher records and slightly cooler temperatures.
621 AM CDT Sat Oct 28 2017 Clearing skies on the back side of the upper trough have allowed temperatures to begin falling by several degrees over the last few hours, a trend which should continue into the post-dawn hours, allowing most sites to hit or fall below freezing this morning. Should any sites not fall below freezing (main concern would be in central MO where cloud cover is more persistent), the Freeze Warning will be reissued for tonight; otherwise, all areas that experience below freezing temperatures will be done for the season with frost/freeze products. Slightly warmer temperatures are expected this afternoon under more abundant sunshine and weaker cold-air advection, but below- normal highs near 50 are still the upper end of expectations this afternoon as cold air aloft continues to filter down the back side of the upper trough.
Social media a few hours ago mentioned a few slippery spots on bridges in Oneida County. The ongoing SPS will include the freezing surfaces on bridges and overpasses over the rest of north central Wisconsin. and Sunday Snow or snow mix trends this morning with a slowly departing low pressure system the primary forecast issue. Precipitation will come to an end from southwest to northeast today as the nearly stacked low pressure system drifts northeast of the area. Any clearing Sunday morning will be brief as clouds quickly move back in ahead of the next low pressure region approaching from the Northern Plains and south central Canada.
Otherwise, an upper ridge over the area will lead to clear skies, light winds, and above-normal temperatures. Mostly VFR with patchy fog in the lower valleys. Upper level ridge will continue warm and dry conditions through early Sunday. Inversion will remain intact in the lower valleys today for hazy conditions this afternoon. The ridge and inversion weakens Sunday with passage of a weak upper level trough. Other than a few high clouds, the region will remain dry with the trough passage.
The region was in between a cold front to the northwest and Potential Tropical Cyclone 18 (PTC 18) to the southwest of the Keys. The cold front will weaken as it approaches southeast Georgia and the Suwannee Valley, with scattered convection waning as it moves through the western portion of the region. Highs today will be above normal in the low to mid 80s. MVFR cigs are possible overnight as a cold front moves through the region.
Lowered highs a couple of degrees into the lower 30s. Short range high res models have the fog mainly along the Red River Valley through sunrise, although various solutions have the lowest visibilities drifting off to the west or east. Southwest winds will continue for much of the night, and the models all bring a thermal ridge along the trough axis. With warmer air moving in late tonight think that this round will be mostly rain. The trough axis passes off to our east, with northwest winds and cold air advection behind it. Still think there should be enough warming out ahead of the cold front to have precip go over to rain for a time Sunday afternoon, as model soundings get pretty warm and the colder 925mb temps don't move back in until Sunday evening.
1038 AM EDT Sat Oct 28 2017 Rain will accompany a cold front across the region today. A cold front is now pushing into the eastern portions of the forecast area late this morning. Fries The amplifying trough over the Central CONUS will shunt that front over the Upper Ohio today, but the jet-energy digging the trough is projected to slow progress and result in a brief period of split upper flow. The latest model trends are thus holding the moisture plume and precip over the ridges through Sunday, which is a deviation from yesterdays solutions. That same slowing trend is also retarding the encroachment of colder air over those same areas; thus, this mornings forecast issuance delays snow accumulation over the ridges until Sunday night, although some snow may mix with lingering rain over points west.
/issued 355 AM CDT Sat Oct 28 2017/ Late night sfc analysis shows the cold front now past the forecast area. Water vapor imagery shows deep troffing over the cntl CONUS ushering in drier air through the column. The beginning of what looks like several nice days comes today high pressure in wake of the cold front continues building over the region while associated shower activity steadily departs to the east. With the high moving to a nearly overhead position by this evening, excellent radiating conditions are expected for tonight, allowing temps to drop to their coldest levels so far this season. Latest suite of guidance numbers keep mins just above the freezing mark across the nrn 1/2 of the area.
623 AM CDT Sat Oct 28 2017 Water vapor satellite this morning shows the upper level low was over the U. This system will move slowly east into Ontario today allowing a brief period of ridging to build over the area. Satellite and observations showing a large cloud shield on the back side of this system and skies don't clear out until almost the center of the low level ridge axis.
A tall upper ridge along the west coast and a deep low over the Great Lakes region is resulting in northerly flow over Colorado. With an upper ridge not expected to move in until later today and forecast soundings showing the cloud deck hanging around longer, have opted to drop today's high temperature forecast by a few degrees. North to northwesterly winds will again be breezy across the high terrain and the eastern plains. However, a cold front will push across the plains in the afternoon, bringing increasing winds and the onset of another sharp weather change.
/issued 401 AM CDT Sat Oct 28 2017/ (Today and Tonight) Aside from freezing temperatures this morning, today will mark the beginning of another warming trend. Tonight, light winds from the south and southwest will help keep lows above the freezing mark, mainly from the mid 30s to around 40.
First push of rain showers expected with the arrival of the cold front tonight. BMickelson Previous short term discussion: Synoptic Setup: forecast begins with a ridge running up the western north american coast from California to central British Columbia with its influence spreading through the western third of the CONUS. A large trough runs through the eastern half of the CONUS and Canada. buried in the flow is a sub-synoptic ridge over southern Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Montana. Today: Ridge aloft will move across the region allowing for clear to partly cloudy skies and dry conditions. Ridge should rapidly exit the area in the evening bring a cold front. Have shifted winds from SuperBlend to CONSMOS during this time to account for the higher CAA.
Unseasonably cool conditions will remain in place this weekend as a ridge of high pressure drifts east across the region. Only fly in the ointment would be if cloud cover associated with the main upper trof hang around a bit longer than expected.