Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1112 AM CST WED JAN 6 2016 (TODAY-FRI NIGHT) THE MID STATE SHOULD REMAIN DRY THRU THU MORNING AS APEX OF RIDGING INFLUENCES SFC/ALOFT WILL BE SHIFTING EWD. AS THIS QUASI-STACKED SFC/UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES NEWD INTO S CNTRL IA BY 12Z FRI. WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT SWD INTO AT LEAST SRN MO. AND WITH A WARM FRONT BEING PUSHED INTO SRN ONTARIO/SRN QUEBEC. ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL LOW MENTIONED ABOVE IN DEPICTED BY CONSENSUS OF MODEL RUNS TO WASH OUT/BE PICKED UP BY A MUCH BROADER UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CIRCULATION CENTERED ACROSS CNTRL MANITOBA. BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE CNTRL U. FRI INTO FRI NIGHT PER REINFORCING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED TROUGHING INFLUENCES CONTINUING TO MOVE INTO THE WRN U.
Expect conditions to worsen again overnight as the main upper level trough axis slowly makes its way through the region for all sites. However, conditions will again begin to deteriorate this evening ahead of an approaching cold front.
1229 PM EST WED JAN 6 2016 STRONGLY STABLE CONDITIONS THROUGH THE LOWEST 7 KFT AGL WILL KEEP QUIET JANUARY AVIATION WEATHER PREVAILING THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. HIGHS ARRIVING WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF THE FREEZING MARK. CAPPED IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 20S RANGE.
330 PM CST WED JAN 6 2016 Light rain moved out of the northeast corner of the area this afternoon as the upper trough was moving into Iowa at 2030Z. Expect temperatures tonight to only fall off a few degrees and remain above freezing. Highs on Thursday will warm up into the lower to middle 40s.
MID/UPPER LEVEL WAVE AND ITS CORRESPONDING SFC WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD INTO OUR AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT PROVIDING OUR NEXT SHOT AT SOME RAIN. STAYING CLOSER TO THE COOLER SIDE OF OUR MODEL GUIDANCE.
LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE WARMING THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, EVEN AS AN UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE MID STATE THURSDAY EVENING AND BRINGS A BAND OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH NORTH- CENTRAL MT TONIGHT.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THEN EXPECTED WITH CHEYENNE CLIMBING INTO THE MID 40S BY THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST TODAY AND TONIGHT AS AN UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS ACROSS THE AREA. THE BETTER CHANCES FOR SNOW WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL THURSDAY WHEN A THE NEXT TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES. WEAK UPPER LEVEL FORCING AND THE ARRIVAL OF AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL SET THE STAGE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW.
1156 AM EST WED JAN 6 2016 EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WILL SLIDE SLOWLY TO THE EAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A WARM FRONT WILL BRING LIGHT PRECIPITATION LATE THIS WEEK. BUT UP TO SEVERAL DEG F ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NORTH AND WEST. VERY SLIGHT HEIGHT FALLS SO HIGH CLOUDS COULD INCREASE BUT THE HIGH CONTINUES TO DEFLECT THE THICKEST OF THEM TO THE N.
1123 AM CST WED JAN 6 2016 Updated aviation discussion for 18z TAF issuance Models show low pressure over the central Rockies moving very slowly east then northeast through the end of the work week.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT RETREATS TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. THIS SET-UP SHOULD PRODUCE MIN TEMPS NOTICEABLY WARMER (ABOUT 10 DEGREES) COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT. THE LOW LEVEL AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO UNDERGO A SLOW MODIFICATION. CURRENTLY FORECAST HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S FAR NORTH-NW TO THE LOW-MID 50S SE.
1254 PM EST WED JAN 6 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE IN THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
1001 AM CST WED JAN 6 2016 CLOUDY SKIES THIS MORNING WITH THE WARM FRONT OFFSHORE. DEW PTS HAVE RISEN TO THE LOWER 60S JUST OFF THE COAST AND WE ARE SEEING SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE NEARSHORE WATERS. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WELL OFFSHORE NEAR THE WARM FRONT.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN AND MODELS INDICATING THAT THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH LIFT TO KEEP THE THREAT OF PATCHY DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE OVER PARTS OF OUR AREA DURING THE NIGHT. RELATED TO THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. THE INVERTED TROUGH DOES NOT MAKE MUCH PROGRESS EASTWARD DURING THE DAY. TOPPING OUT IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S.
AT THE SURFACE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND STRETCHING INTO THE SE STATES WHILE LOW PRESSURE IS DEVELOPING OVER THE PLAINS. AS DEW PTS INC OVER THE COOLER GULF PATCHY SEA FOG MAY DEVELOP THIS EVENING.
1101 AM PST WED JAN 6 2016 A mix of light rain and snow will continue across Northeast Washington and North Idaho through Thursday however there is a low threat for additional snow or ice accumulations and many valleys will warm above freezing this afternoon.
105 PM EST WED JAN 6 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH THURSDAY.
1127 AM CST WED JAN 6 2016 FOR 18Z TAFS /ISSUED 1042 AM CST WED JAN 6 2016/ OVERNIGHT LOWS WERE CHILLY AGAIN DROPPING INTO THE LOW-UPPER 20S AND CURRENT TEMPS HAVE ONLY WARMED UP INTO THE MID/UPPER 30S. TEMP TRENDS ARE RUNNING A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY BUT WILL ONLY SEE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S.
222 PM EST WED JAN 6 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY.
245 PM CST WED JAN 6 2016 A NEGATIVELY-TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE SWRN GREAT BASIN TOWARD FAR WEST TEXAS WILL SHIFT EWD OVERNIGHT TO THE CNTL HIGH PLAINS AND WRN TEXAS PANHANDLE. THIS TROUGH IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE RAIN SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE FCST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. BECOMING A CLOSED LOW THAT TRACKS FROM THE WRN PANHANDLE TO SOUTH CNTL KANSAS. CURRENTLY EXPECT A REVERSION TO FORM FROM MUCH OF NOVEMBER AND DECEMBER UNDER SIMILAR CIRCUMSTANCES WHERE WARMER MOS NUMBERS OUTPERFORMED.
627 PM EST MON JAN 4 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION LATER TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
335 PM MST MON JAN 4 2016 NO MAJOR WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.
653 PM EST MON JAN 4 2016 LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL END TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. THIS HIGH WILL THEN PROVIDE DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING TO ABOVE NORMAL ONCE AGAIN. LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE HIGH SINGLE NUMBERS ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH LOW SINGLE NUMBERS ACROSS THE INTERIOR SOUTHERN TIER. THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH THAT BROUGHT THE ARCTIC AIRMASS INTO THE REGION WILL DEPART ALLOWING A RIDGE TO BUILD INTO THE AREA.
LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINS OVER SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA.
An anomalous upper level trough moving across the Great Lakes region this morning and afternoon, combined with low level moisture, provided the snow showers noted across the forecast area since the pre-dawn hours of the morning. As this trough exits the region and slides east, high pressure from the west will take over, thus, continually drying out the atmosphere and shutting off the Lake Michigan moisture feed. Will forecast lows in the low 20s and upper teens. A few of the usual cold spots could see temperatures a tad bit cooler. Sky conditions should remain clear for Tuesday as high pressure sits directly over the Ohio Valley.
EXCEPT AROUND 50 TO THE LOWER 50S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST FROM TAMPA SOUTH BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
843 PM CST MON JAN 4 2016 Quiet weather is expected across central and southeast Illinois overnight as a ridge of high pressure crosses the area. This will allow temperatures to fall a few degrees cooler than the past couple nights, but overnight lows are still expected to be above normal for early January. As ridge axis pushes east across the state, winds will trend toward the southeast after midnight. Most locations should fall into the lower 20s overnight, but some teens likely across the I-74 corridor.
622 PM EST MON JAN 4 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT AND SLOWLY MOVE EAST THROUGH MID-WEEK.
THE WIND WILL BE GENERALLY NORTHERLY FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TO THE NORTH. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL PULL EAST AND ALLOW WINDS TO QUICKLY TURN NORTHEASTERLY ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA.
849 PM CST MON JAN 4 2016 A CHILLY NIGHT ON SCHEDULE WITH WIDESPREAD FREEZING TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY MORNING LOWS. FEW MIDDECK OR CIRRUS OVERNIGHT WITH NE SFC 5 TO 10KTS WITH SAME UP THROUGH THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE AND UP INTO THE MIDLEVELS ONLY AROUND 10KTS.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 05/00Z UPPER-AIR PLOTS SHOW THE TROUGH AXIS ASSOCIATED WITH THE ONGOING PRECIPITATION CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM EAST CENTRAL CALIFORNIA THROUGH EXTREME SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND INTO WESTERN ARIZONA. AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH AXIS CONTINUES TO LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR WITH THIS AREA OF PRECIPITATION AND NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
934 PM EST MON JAN 4 2016 LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL END TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. THIS HIGH WILL THEN PROVIDE DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING TO ABOVE NORMAL ONCE AGAIN. LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE HIGH SINGLE NUMBERS ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH LOW SINGLE NUMBERS ACROSS THE INTERIOR SOUTHERN TIER. THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH THAT BROUGHT THE ARCTIC AIRMASS INTO THE REGION WILL DEPART ALLOWING A RIDGE TO BUILD INTO THE AREA.
FEW MIDDECK OR CIRRUS OVERNIGHT WITH NE SFC 5 TO 10KTS WITH SAME UP THROUGH THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE AND UP INTO THE MIDLEVELS ONLY AROUND 10KTS.
618 PM EST MON JAN 4 2016 LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL END EARLY TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. THIS HIGH WILL THEN PROVIDE DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING TO ABOVE NORMAL ONCE AGAIN. LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE HIGH SINGLE NUMBERS ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH LOW SINGLE NUMBERS ACROSS THE INTERIOR SOUTHERN TIER. THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH THAT BROUGHT THE ARCTIC AIRMASS INTO THE REGION WILL DEPART ALLOWING A RIDGE TO BUILD INTO THE AREA.
505 PM CST MON JAN 4 2016 FOR 00Z TAFS /ISSUED 307 PM CST MON JAN 4 2016/ LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE AXIS OF AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST. WHILE FAIRLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WAS BUILDING IN OVER THE PLAINS. THE FORECAST AREA RESTS UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS. WHILE A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE LOWER LEVELS HAS PUSHED A LOW CLOUD DECK SOUTHWARD OVER THE TN VALLEY. AS THE UPPER TROUGH OUT WEST SHIFTS EAST. THE AXIS OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL WEAKEN AS IT SHIFTS EAST.
611 PM CST MON JAN 4 2016 VFR THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE LOWER 50S ACROSS THE REGION BUT SOME CHANGES ARE ON THE WAY. HIGH CLOUDINESS SHOULD INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW LIKELY RESULTING IN TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY.
816 PM MST MON JAN 4 2016 A WEAK CANADIAN COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT WINDS NORTHERLY ALONG THE HI-LINE AND POSSIBLY AS FAR SOUTH AS GREAT FALLS.
DIFFERENCE IN THE MODELS WITH THE LOW LEVEL MOISTENING OVERNIGHT.
1053 PM EST MON JAN 4 2016 LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL END TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. THIS HIGH WILL THEN PROVIDE DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING TO ABOVE NORMAL ONCE AGAIN. LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE HIGH SINGLE NUMBERS ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH LOW SINGLE NUMBERS ACROSS THE INTERIOR SOUTHERN TIER. THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH THAT BROUGHT THE ARCTIC AIRMASS INTO THE REGION WILL DEPART ALLOWING A RIDGE TO BUILD INTO THE AREA.
931 PM EST MON JAN 4 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION LATER TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
It will be cold in the morning, with most locations in the lower 20s, and perhaps a few more sheltered locations into the upper teens. The latest surface analysis depicts high pressure over the plains. A nearly stalled cold front extended from Wisconsin to Southern Virginia. This will allow for a bit warmer recoveries as we lose the northerly component.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING UPPER LOW MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON WHILE THE RIDGE ALOFT GETS SHIFTED INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS LOW IS SENDING A SWATH OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE INTO SOUTHWEST COLORADO AND WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD INTO THE MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS ON TUESDAY BUT COVERAGE WILL BE ON THE LOW SIDE AS QG ASCENT WILL BE NEUTRAL TO WEAK UPWARD ASCENT AND WEAK OROGRAPHICS. A SHORT WAVE RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE STATE TUESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT BASIN.
833 PM EST MON JAN 4 2016 HIGH PRESSURE IS SLOWLY BUILDING IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH. HOWEVER, AS THE HIGH BUILDS TO THE NORTH, THE WIND IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE OUT OF THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT. THE WIND WILL BE GENERALLY NORTHERLY FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TO THE NORTH. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL PULL EAST AND ALLOW WINDS TO QUICKLY TURN NORTHEASTERLY ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA.
POSSIBLY BEING BRIEFLY PRECEDED BY LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE. WITH POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE DURING THE MORNING AT KDHT. /ISSUED 334 PM CST MON JAN 4 2016/ LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS A TROUGH EXTENDING DOWN THE CALIFORNIA COAST INTO NORTHERN BAJA MOVING EASTWARD.
641 PM EST MON JAN 4 2016 LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH LATER TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS SUNSHINE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION WILL DRIVE THE ANSWER TO BOTH OF THE ABOVE ISSUES. FORECAST THUS RETRACTS THE HIGHEST POPS NORTHWARD AND WESTWARD TO THE NORTHERN PARTS OF SENECA AND CAYUGA COUNTIES WITH SOME TRAILING BANDS OFF SENECA INTO THE WATKINS GLEN AND ELMIRA AREAS. THIS PERIOD OF FORECAST TIME LOOKS RATHER TRANQUIL WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT TAKING A FEW DAYS TO WORK ACROSS THE REGION.
820 PM EST MON JAN 4 2016 IR SATELLITE CONTINUES TO SHOW CUMULUS / STRATOCUMULUS CLOUD TOPS WARMING IN THE NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE LOWER TO MEDIUM ELEVATION AREAS. CLOUD TOP TEMPS HANGING STEADY IN THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS FROM THE SMOKIES NORTHWARD. CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 24 45 25 47 / 0 0 0 0 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 21 41 20 45 / 0 0 0 0 OAK RIDGE, TN 22 42 22 46 / 0 0 0 0 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 16 39 12 47 / 10 0 0 0.
855 PM CST MON JAN 4 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA WITH A FEW PASSING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE COLD IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S.
Areas with the greatest potential of receiving freezing rain, will be the Lower Clark Fork region, the Missoula/Bitterroot Valleys, the Mission Valley, and Highway 12 from Lolo Pass to Lowell, Idaho. Snow accumulations are expected to be less than 1 inch, and a trace of freezing rain for those that see it.
AND NEW SNOWCOVER WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO ACROSS THE FAR NORTH AND NORTHWEST TO THE LOWER TEENS ELSEWHERE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES IN THE WAKE OF AN ARCTIC FRONTAL BOUNDARY. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED WITH WEAK WAA SHOULD ALLOW HIGH TEMPS TO CLIMB TOWARD THE LOWER 30S SOUTH. BRIEF HIGH BELTED ZONAL SPLIT FLW ACRS THE CONUS WILL BUCKLE SUBSTANTIALLY LT PD AS WRN NOAM RIDGE AMPLIFIES NWD INTO THE ARCTIC OCEAN. AND THEN SOUTH BY AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS BY MIDDAY TUESDAY AS SFC ANTICYCLONE PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST.
1031 PM EST MON JAN 4 2016 CURRENTLY - A COLD FRONTAL ZONE CONTINUES TO SPREAD SOUTHWARDS ACROSS THE KEYS AREA. AS A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SPREADS INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. RANGING FROM THE MID 50S IN THE LOWER KEYS. THE LOWER LEVEL TROUGH IS LINGERING FAR BACK. AND COOLER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FLOW ACROSS THE KEYS. EXPECT MORNING LOWS IN THE 60 TO 65 RANGE WITH DEW POINTS RANGING BROADLY IN THE LOWER 50S. WINDS WILL FRESHEN MORE UNIFORMLY ACROSS KEYS COASTAL WATERS OVERNIGHT AS A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.
/ISSUED 307 PM CST MON JAN 4 2016/ LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE AXIS OF AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST. WHILE FAIRLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WAS BUILDING IN OVER THE PLAINS. THE FORECAST AREA RESTS UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS. WHILE A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE LOWER LEVELS HAS PUSHED A LOW CLOUD DECK SOUTHWARD OVER THE TN VALLEY. AS THE UPPER TROUGH OUT WEST SHIFTS EAST. THE AXIS OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL WEAKEN AS IT SHIFTS EAST.
GUIDANCE HAS COME IN A LITTLE WARMER THIS EVENING WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR. WILL MAINTAIN CURRENT ADVISORIES WITH INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS WELL NORTH OF THE AREA. ELEVATED WINDS/SEAS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH WED NIGHT WITH THE HIGH NEARLY STATIONARY WELL NORTH OF THE WATERS.
922 PM EST MON JAN 4 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT AND SLOWLY MOVE EAST THROUGH MID-WEEK.
MUCH COOLER/DRIER AIRMASS IN PLACE WITH THE EVENING KXMR SOUNDING SHOWING A PWAT OF ONLY 0.
449 PM MST MON JAN 4 2016 A RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE PLAINS TONIGHT AND THEN SHIFT EAST TUESDAY WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. THE HRRR INDICATES THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME PATCHY FREEZING FOG EARLY TUESDAY MORNING FOR A FEW HOURS NEAR NORTON AND GRAHAM COUNTIES. PLAN TO INSERT SOME PATCHY FREEZING FOG IN THAT AREA.
632 PM EST MON JAN 4 2016 AVIATION HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVERHEAD TONIGHT AND WILL PROVIDE PARTLY CLOUDY AND COLD CONDITIONS WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. AS THE HIGH MOVES TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES.
ANOTHER HOT MAY DAY IS ON TAP ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH AN UPPER RIDGE AND WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN IN PLACE. 12Z KTAE SOUNDING WAS SLIGHTLY WARMER IN THE LOWER LEVELS THAN 24 HOURS AGO, SO HAVE BUMPED TEMPS UP SLIGHTLY FOR THIS AFTERNOON TO APPROACH THE HIGHS REACHED YESTERDAY (MID 90S).
ALABAMA IS SITUATED BETWEEN TROPICAL STORM ANA THAT MADE LANDFALL THIS MORNING AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THUS WE WILL REMAIN IN THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FOR ONE MORE DAY. 15 AT MSL AND ARE CURRENTLY IN THE LOWER 80S. ADJUSTED THE HOURLY TEMPS AND INCREASED THE HIGH TEMPS BY A DEGREE OR TWO TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS TREND AND FOR LESS CLOUD COVER THAN YESTERDAY. THE SUBSIDENCE FROM THE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD KEEP US MAINLY DRY TODAY. KEPT IN A LOW POP FOR NE AL AS EFFECTS FROM ANA WILL BUILD HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS CREATING A BOUNDARY NEAR THE AL/GA BORDER.
CIGS WILL IMPROVE FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON IN BETWEEN ROUNDS OF CONVECTION BUT EXPECT DETERIORATING CONDITIONS AS STORMS ROLL IN AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT LATER THIS EVENING WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBYS. CONVECTION SHOULD REDEVELOP ALONG A COLD FRONT THAT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST.
747 AM EDT SUN MAY 10 2015 A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL DROP NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS OUR AREA TODAY BRING SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO MUCH OF NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT MOISTURE WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AS SOUTHWEST FLOW TO THE SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS BRINGS IN MOIST CARIBBEAN AIR.
CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA AS LOW PRESSURE. AS UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER NE CO LIFTS INTO THE NRN PLAINS SUNDAY. SO ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOWFALL LIKELY FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY BRINGING A RESPITE FROM THE WET WEATHER.
1012 AM MDT SUN MAY 10 2015 QUICK UPDATE FOR ISSUANCE OF A WINTER WX ADVISORY FOR SNOW FOR THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE E MTS. AS TEMPS COOL TONIGHT SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER AND WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER 30S AND COOLER. WITH A TRANSITORY UPPER RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE ROCKIES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THOUGH AGAIN WILL KEEP SLIGHT POPS CONFINED TO THE HIGHER MOUNTAIN PEAKS FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SLOWLY ACROSS THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY.
1245 PM EDT SUN MAY 10 2015 A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL DROP NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS OUR AREA TODAY BRING SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO MUCH OF NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT.
APPEARS THAT CONVECTION COULD BEGIN BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON ALONG THE COLD FRONT AND MOVE TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST.
SELFRIDGE ND REPORTED 8 INCHES OF WET SNOW ABOUT AN HOUR AGO. ONE CONCERN IS THE LOWERING DEW POINT TEMPERATURES ALONG THE MONTANA BORDER WITH A NORTH WIND. HETTINGER WAS REPORTING SNOW AND MOBRIDGE HAD SWITCHED BACK OVER TO RAIN.
1119 AM EDT SUN MAY 10 2015 AN ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHEAST CONUS THROUGH MONDAY.
CONTINUING THE SLOW MIGRATION OF THE LOW LEVEL ATLANTIC RIDGE NORTHWARD. EARLY MORNING VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY CLEARLY SHOWED CLOUD LINES DELINEATING THE RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE NORTHERNMOST BAHAMAS. THIS FITS THE 12Z HRRR MODEL AND THE TYPICAL PATTERN OF HIGHER MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ZONE OCCURRING JUST NORTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS. ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO MIGRATE SLOWLY NORTHWARD FROM THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS.
644 AM CDT SUN MAY 10 2015 LONGWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO STRETCH ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN CONUS THIS MORNING. WITH RIDGING EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WITH THE EXCEPTION OF TS ANA OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. IMPULSES ROTATING AROUND THE TROUGH FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TOWARD THE MIDWEST HAVE ENHANCED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY GENERALLY WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. CLOSED LOW WITHIN THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHWARD TODAY FROM COLORADO TO THE DAKOTAS. AND THE RIDGE AXIS WILL AMPLIFY SLIGHTLY IN RESPONSE. THE LONGWAVE TROUGH BEGINS TO EJECT NORTHEASTWARD AS TS ANA MOVES UP THE EAST COAST. THE TRAILING END OF A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA MONDAY EVENING AND SLOWLY SINK SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE SOUTHEAST AT 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS TO IN THE LOW 20 KT RANGE THROUGH THE DAY. SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW HAS CONTINUED AT THE SURFACE AND DEW POINT TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 70S. THE UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST REACHING THE NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY MORNING BEFORE OPENING TO A WAVE. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER TEXAS UNTIL THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES TO THE EAST MONDAY. MONDAY A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTH TEXAS REACHING OUR NORTHERN AREA BY THE EVENING. THE SPC SLIGHT RISK INCLUDES OUR ENTIRE CWA FOR MONDAY WITH STORMS EXPECTED ALONG THE LENGTH OF THE COLD FRONT.
731 AM EDT SUN MAY 10 2015 A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL DROP NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS OUR AREA TODAY BRING SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO MUCH OF NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL WEAKEN ENOUGH TO ALLOW INCREASING CLOUDS OVER OREGON TODAY. NARROW UPPER RIDGE WITH AXIS NORTH-SOUTH THROUGH WA AND OREGON WILL DE-AMPLIFY AS IT SHIFTS SLOWLY EAST ACROSS OREGON THIS AFTERNOON AND WESTERN IDAHO TONIGHT. RIDGE WILL BE IN EASTERN IDAHO MONDAY. UPPER TROUGH IN THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL CLOSE OFF A LOW JUST OFF THE WA COAST THIS AFTERNOON. IN THAT POSITION THE LOW WILL CIRCULATE MOISTURE INTO OUR ZONES FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
1001 AM MDT SUN MAY 10 2015 WE HAVE CANCELLED THE HIGHLIGHTS FOR SE MONTANA THIS MORNING. STRONG UPPER LOW WE HAVE BEEN TRACKING THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS NOW DRIFTING NORTHEAST THROUGH EASTERN CO EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST INTO NORTH DAKOTA BY MONDAY MORNING. BUT UPPER FLOW SHIFTS BACK AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST AGAIN FOR LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS NEXT TROUGH DIGS ALONG THE WEST COAST.
1133 AM EDT SUN MAY 10 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTH FROM SOUTHERN CANADA TODAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY RETURN TONIGHT THEN SHIFT EAST MONDAY AS A MILD SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS. CLEARING SKIES TONIGHT UNDER SHORT WAVE RIDGING SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO GET CHILLY AGAIN AFTER THE BREEZY AFTN NORTH WINDS DROP OFF. LOWS LAST NIGHT TOUCHED FREEZING IN A COUPLE OF SPOTS AND EXPECT SIMILAR READINGS TONIGHT. SIGNIFICANT WARMING IS EXPECTED MON AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST AND A MILD SWLY FLOW DEVELOPS.
ONE CONCERN IS THE LOWERING DEW POINT TEMPERATURES ALONG THE MONTANA BORDER WITH A NORTH WIND. HETTINGER WAS REPORTING SNOW AND MOBRIDGE HAD SWITCHED BACK OVER TO RAIN.
THE BEST AIR AND LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION AND THIS IS WHERE WE FEEL THE HIGHEST SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL WILL BE.