Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
530 PM MDT Thu Aug 5 2021 00Z TAF CYCLE Upper high centered over AZ and wrn NM at 23Z to shift to srn NM during the next 24 hrs as an upper trough passes through the nrn/central Rockies. Isold showers and tstms over the nrn and wrn mts at 23Z to diminish around 03Z then redevelop aft 06/18Z and move from west to east into the lower elevations.
934 PM CDT Thu Aug 5 2021 Another night of cooler than normal temperatures. GOES IR imagery showed extensive mid and high clouds streaming into the Midsouth, ahead of a upper trof extending from the mid-MS River to the southern plains.
GOES East imagery shows a nearly clear sky across the area thanks to high pressure. Large scale ridging, with lack of any forcing for ascent will allow for a quiet, warm day on Friday.
311 AM CDT Fri Aug 6 2021 Modest H50 height rises throughout the day, as the center of the upper level high expands east, along with slightly lower surface dewpoints will result in temperatures increasing to the mid 90s on the Caprock and upper 90s across the Rolling Plains.
An approaching trough of low pressure currently along the California coast will bring breezy conditions to the area this afternoon and again on Friday. Temperatures will also moderate to more seasonable levels Friday and over the weekend as strong high pressure that was over the area weakens. The Excessive Heat Warning will be allowed to expire this evening and temperatures look to be 5 to 10 degrees cooler tomorrow, returning readings closer to normal levels for this time of the year. The trough will move eastward Friday keeping wind gusts of 20 to 30 mph across Lake Mead and the Colorado River Valley, and Mohave County.
125 AM EDT Fri Aug 6 2021 Mostly dry with high pressure today.
With subsidence behind departing s/wv trough today, and strong pressure falls to our northwest ahead of next upper trough, much warmer/hotter temperatures and increasing south winds are expected today. Winds will stay up through the night, and along with increasing dewpoints, will result in a warmer night than we have seen in at least a week or so.
930 PM PDT Thu Aug 5 2021 Weaker high pressure over the Southwest this weekend will bring a break from the heat of the past few days.
just a few mid and high level clouds will move over the area ahead of an approaching upper level ridge axis. Low temperatures are expected to be in the low to mid 60s. southerly winds gusting up to 35 mph or so are expected from late morning through the afternoon as the forecast area is in between an approaching upper level trough and its cold front to our northwest and an upper level high pressure area moving into New Mexico. For the overnight hours the upper level trough axis moves east into the northern plains south through the Continental Divide.
250 AM EDT Fri Aug 6 2021 High pressure in control today brings sunny skies and warming temperatures.
Pretty healthy area of thicker high clouds associated with the upper trough is about to move into the area.
It should still feel pretty nice this morning, sunrise temperatures should be in the mid 60s to around 70 degrees, but dew points will be in the lower to mid 60s. A weak trough will shift across the Mississippi River today. This evening, the axis of the trough will shift over middle Tennessee which should end any real chance of precipitation over the Midsouth. Warmer temperatures and higher dew points are expected over the weekend.
215 AM EDT Fri Aug 6 2021 High pressure will remain over the Lower Great Lakes through this afternoon. High pressure remains in place across the Lower Great Lakes through tonight. Coverage looks pretty sparse though owed to the ridging aloft. H85 temps 1-2C warmer than Thursday so have increased highs with mid to upper 80s for all but the higher terrain east of Lake Ontario. Temps near the shorelines of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario likely will stay at or above 70F while readings inland only drop to the lower to middle 60s.
450 AM EDT Fri Aug 6 2021 Warm summer air will be over the area again today and allow temperatures to rise close to normal into the low to mid 80s.
Despite the increased cloud cover, guidance blend supports maxTs +1 to +4 degrees warmer than Thursday with readings peaking in the 80-90F range or about +2-5F above climo in most locations. Tonight will be mostly cloudy and noticeably warmer (+5-10F vs.
Clouds will decrease quickly overnight allowing temperatures to fall into the lower and middle 70s in most locations. Friday will be seasonably hot (highs in the 90s) and generally rain-free due to increasing subsidence on the back side of the departing upper trough.
This is associated with an upper level trof, which will bring showers and storms to the Midwest.
252 AM EDT Fri Aug 6 2021 An upper level trough near the Mississippi River early this morning will slowly work its way east today. Forcing isn't impressive with the upper trough today, and there is no surface feature associated with the upper trough. Given the slow speed of the trough and location of better moisture, will only go with PoPs across roughly the northwest half of the area today. Tonight, the upper trough will move into the area.
256 AM MDT Fri Aug 6 2021 Today will have seasonal temperatures with a good chance of showers and thunderstorms, with an upper trough swinging through the forecast area. A cold front will push through tonight and turn winds to the northwest with some gusts 20-25 mph (stronger near storms).
GOES East imagery shows a nearly clear sky across the area thanks to high pressure. In the lower levels, southwest gradient return flow will resume today in between Atlantic High Pressure and the Mississippi Valley trough, which will continue to bring relatively warmer, moister air into the region.
/issued 934 PM CDT Thu Aug 5 2021/ Another night of cooler than normal temperatures. GOES IR imagery showed extensive mid and high clouds streaming into the Midsouth, ahead of a upper trof extending from the mid-MS River to the southern plains.
401 AM EDT Fri Aug 6 2021 Another dry day Friday, and turning warmer with highs well into the eighties. Amid upper ridging and warm air advection courtesy of southwesterly flow throughout the column, a dry, sunny, and warmer day is expected today with highs well into the 80s in most spots. Some of our typically warmer urban valleys may even reach to around 90F.
413 AM EDT Fri Aug 6 2021 Mostly dry with high pressure today.
There was some upper troughing over the eastern seaboard, with more troughing working through the Mississippi valley, with ridging in between, and back further west over the lee of the Rockies. 75") and better, but diminishing MUCAPES, additional showers and some thunderstorms were common out ahead of the weak cold front. The upper troughing just out to our west will work eastward, and enter nrn Michigan late today through tonight, while also losing some of it's definition (shallowing out). 50" with sfc dew points rising into the low to mid 60s for more humid conditions. A weak cold front will drift into the Great Lakes region by Friday night, and waffle around for a few days. A cold front will drift into the Great Lakes region and waffle around for a few days, resulting in various chances for showers and some storms.
359 AM CDT Fri Aug 6 2021 The main issue for today is the precip chance associated with a sharp upper-level trough over western Missouri. Widespread mid and high cloudiness is overspreading the lower Ohio Valley ahead of this trough. The nbm and href mean qpf depict some light precip over central IL and Indiana, which moves southeast on the back side of the departing upper-level trough tonight.
1025 PM CDT Thu Aug 5 2021 Upper level trough is beginning to move into the region this afternoon.
Despite the increasingly filtered afternoon sun, still going for highs +2 to +4 degrees warmer than Thursday with readings peaking in the 80-90F range or about +2-5F above climo in most locations.
This will allow for breezy south to southwest boundary layer flow and warmer temperatures.
Into the day today, an upper level trough will work east out of the Middle Mississippi Valley and into the Mid Atlantic.
An upper trough axis will swing through the area later today, and a continued increase in clouds and chances for showers and storms is expected. The increase in cloud cover will keep temperatures on the cooler side today, only topping out in the middle to upper 80s. The aforementioned trough axis will continue to push through the area tonight, keeping at least isolated chances for rain through the early overnight hours.
217 AM CDT Fri Aug 6 2021 It's a quiet night across the area with temperatures a couple degrees warmer than this time last night and some high clouds hanging around. An upper level trough is currently sitting over the Ozarks.
Temperatures will be slightly warmer today with highs in the 90s. Overnight lows will be in the lower 70s.
Otherwise, an upper-trough will maintain scattered to broken VFR ceilings through much of today, improving even further tonight. /issued 940 PM CDT Thu Aug 5 2021/ Stout upper trough for early August continues to make slow but steady progress eastward across the Southern Plains this evening. Likewise, plenty of high cirrus ovhd tonight with some increasing AC coming into our western zones in the base of the upper trough. The current forecast has trended this way with overnight lows mostly in the upper 60s to the lower 70s areawide.
Meanwhile, the cyclone formerly parked over the eastern United States is on the move, headed east into the western North Atlantic. Temperatures are in the lower 80s with dewpoints in the mid 70s. Low level ridging stretching west across South Florida will lift slowly northward over the next few days. East to southeast breezes will freshen somewhat as the ridge lifts north. The freshening breezes will provide some relief to the heat and humidity, although highs near 90 and lows in the lower 80s will persist.
1241 AM EDT Fri Aug 6 2021 High pressure continues to push east away from Michigan as an upstream cold front approaches the Western Great Lakes. Some additional shower and thunderstorm activity has developed across the Upper Mississippi Valley right ahead of the cold front. Cold front will slide into Wisconsin overnight. with overnight lows in the low to mid 60s. However, the main activity, which looks like showers, is associated with the cold front, and will move in from C Wisconsin/W Upper overnight. This weakening wave will be accompanied by a weak cold front.
The fog should mix out by mid-morning with the clouds moving eastward and skies becoming mostly sunny by the afternoon due to a weak ridge aloft. Showers and thunderstorms should develop along the warm front. It appears based on the location of the warm front and CAMs that the convection will be a mix of elevated and surface based.
837 AM CDT Fri Aug 6 2021 An upper trough that brought showers and storms to the region yesterday and last night has shifted just east of the forecast area this morning. A few lingering showers remain possible near an associated PV max across portions of NW AR, otherwise expect near or slightly below average temps and dry conditions today in the wake of the upper trough.
The ridge builds overhead today with a deepening cyclone on the lee of the rockies tightening the pressure gradient across the forecast area. Precipitation chances increase Saturday as the western trough approaches the Plains.
At the surface, disorganized low pressure will be in place today. Models vary in their timing, so will be interesting to see how quickly the low pressure system tracks east.
/issued 255 AM CDT Fri Aug 6 2021/ SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday): A 500mb trough slowly works into the Eastern CONUS by Saturday as the subtropical ridge gradually builds across Texas. The weakness along the lower Texas coast early today, leftover moisture, and generally light onshore flow should help the seabreeze kick up a few showers and thunderstorms. With less of a chance of rain and minimal clouds on Saturday, have tossed an extra degree or two onto the highs.
550 AM CDT Fri Aug 6 2021 Updated aviation section for 12z taf issuance The main issue for today is the precip chance associated with a sharp upper-level trough over western Missouri. Widespread mid and high cloudiness is overspreading the lower Ohio Valley ahead of this trough. The nbm and href mean qpf depict some light precip over central IL and Indiana, which moves southeast on the back side of the departing upper-level trough tonight. Saturday will be mostly sunny under dry northwest mid-level flow on the back side of the trough.
Storm-free and cooler today in the wake of the dry frontal passage.
NAM PWATS on the low side across Carbon and Albany Counties this morning with 0. Cold front forecast to slowly settle into the area from north to south through the afternoon. Fire Weather concerns Saturday will be very low as afternoon humidity in the low 20 percent range.
650 AM EDT Fri Aug 6 2021 High pressure in control today brings sunny skies and warming temperatures.
A mid/upper level trough will slowly drift east today and interact with deep moisture (PWATs around 2 inches) as well as an unstable airmass bringing additional showers and thunderstorms to S TX. Latest models show the mid level trough splitting tonight with the southern portion moving slightly west across S TX as an inverted trough through Saturday. Models also show the 250mb ridge building across the region bringing subsidence and drier upper levels.
It's a quiet night across the area with temperatures a couple degrees warmer than this time last night and some high clouds hanging around. An upper level trough is currently sitting over the Ozarks. This trough will slowly work toward the area today with the trough axis over the Mississippi River by 00z Saturday. The trough axis will only make it to the Cumberland Plateau by 18z Saturday, so expect another day of scattered storms with the best rain chances along the plateau.
1004 AM EDT Fri Aug 6 2021 High pressure in control today brings sunny skies and warming temperatures.
Given that the main source of lift is so displaces to our south and southwest and moisture is really limited to the lowest levels, see no need to change from going forecast. Thereafter, the ridge axis will broaden and lift further north, leading to a more general freshening of breezes.
406 AM CDT Fri Aug 6 2021 For today and tonight, above normal temperatures are expected as an upper level ridge of high pressure expands across the region. A surface trof of low pressure is forecast to remain around ern CO and ern NM, resulting in south to southwest winds in the 10 to 20 mph range with perhaps some higher gusts at times both today and tonight.
Highs today generally mid to upper 80s with east central GA a bit cooler in mid 80s, then overall a tad warmer tomorrow with many areas in upper 80s to the 90 mark.
Clouds will clear quickly to the W early this aftn in the wake of the trough axis/best ascent. Summertime humidity will be creeping back up, with heat indices into the low-mid 90s.
This will allow for breezy south to southwest boundary layer flow and warmer temperatures. An upper level trough over the Rockies will progress eastward across the plains by Saturday.
Isolated showers and storms continue over the Atlantic late this morning, then the highest coverage of storms should focus inland this afternoon.
An upper level trough near the Mississippi River early this morning will slowly work its way east today. Forcing isn't impressive with the upper trough today, and there is no surface feature associated with the upper trough. Given the slow speed of the trough and location of better moisture, will only go with PoPs across roughly the northwest half of the area today.
444 AM MDT Fri Aug 6 2021 An upper trof will be moving into the northern Rockies over the weekend, with a low pressure system spinning up over southern Alberta before moving out into the prairie. Warm front lifts east today and tonight, with the potential for thunderstorms ahead of the front. As the front moves east late tonight, winds will turn west for warmer and drier conditions on Saturday.
556 AM EDT Fri Aug 6 2021 Mostly dry with high pressure today. The period begins Saturday morning with an upper trough approaching from the west.
Weak mid and upper level trough axis is currently east of the area and will continue to move out of the region today. Larger area of convection has developed further south near the old boundary interacting with the low-level jet and mid level low near LRD. On Saturday flat ridge will begin to build across the state and provide drier air aloft and more subsidence thus cutting off precipitation chances.
Into the day today, an upper level trough will work east out of the Middle Mississippi Valley and into the Mid Atlantic. The trough will continue pushing east Saturday, with Eastern Kentucky at its base by 18z. Given the better upslope flow, these will be best along the higher terrain bordering Virginia. Temperatures will continue to stay around the norm with afternoon highs Saturday in the low to mid 80s. Ridge/Valley splits won't be as predominant overnight Friday given the cloud cover expected.
As a result, this is where PoPs are the highest for today with rain showers forming off the coast in the early morning hours and gradually pushing inland in the late morning/afternoon. Forecast highs for today and tomorrow will be just a smidge beneath this with temperatures in the low-to-mid 90s.
/Issued 406 AM CDT Fri Aug 6 2021/ For today and tonight, above normal temperatures are expected as an upper level ridge of high pressure expands across the region. A surface trof of low pressure is forecast to remain around ern CO and ern NM, resulting in south to southwest winds in the 10 to 20 mph range with perhaps some higher gusts at times both today and tonight.
The H5 ridge through the forecast area breaks down today with the approaching H5 long wave trough that spins off a series of short waves. The low level jet could counter this and help sustain convection through central North Dakota. With the H5 trough passing overhead on Saturday it will be a partly to mostly cloudy period. The positioning of the trough suggests that any severe weather risk Saturday would be confined to the James River Valley and south and east from there.
607 AM EDT Fri Aug 6 2021 Warm summer air will be over the area again today and allow temperatures to rise close to normal into the low to mid 80s.
The main axis of high pressure has moved east and is now over the Upper OH Valley. This should inhibit any development of fog but alos keep a warmer night on tap. The upper-level trough across the Mississippi Valley will move into the Ohio Valley on Saturday and bring comparatively unsettled weather to our area. The encroachment of the trough will effectively remove that aforementioned capping inversion, allowing for scattered precipitating convection by late morning or early afternoon Saturday.
High pressure over the desert southwest this morning, with a mid level ridge axis across southern Arizona. Fortunately, we should see some weakening of the ridge this afternoon (just a bit of mid level cooling) along with a low level moisture convergence field setting up near the border this afternoon hinted at by NAEFS ensembles. Add in HREF ensemble mean surface based and MU cape ridge axes from central Sonora into Santa Cruz / southern Pima county and we have a favorable area for a convective complex south to southwest of Tucson mid to late afternoon. The weak flow will continue through the weekend as the high tries to slowly reconsolidate east of us.
1023 AM EDT Fri Aug 6 2021 Mostly dry with high pressure today. The period begins Saturday morning with an upper trough approaching from the west.
An upper-trough will maintain scattered to broken VFR ceilings through much of today, becoming SKC tonight. /Today through Saturday/ Broad upper-trough across the region to shift east today allowing for northwest flow of dry air to begin building southeast across the region.
Weak wave over northwest Arkansas is close to an upper level trough extending from southwest Missouri into eastern Oklahoma. Temperatures will be a bit warmer, though they should be tempered somewhat by cloud cover. By tomorrow, the surface system and aforementioned upper level trough will move into the Appalachians and Ohio Valley, with ridging building in from the southwest conus. This should shunt appreciable moisture from the region, with decreased cloud cover, little if any rain chances and even warmer temperatures.
An upper trough axis will swing through the area later today, and a continued increase in clouds and chances for showers and storms is expected. The increase in cloud cover will keep temperatures on the cooler side today, only topping out in the middle to upper 80s. The aforementioned trough axis will continue to push through the area tonight, keeping at least isolated chances for rain through the early overnight hours. The combination of diurnal heating and convergence near the trough axis will keep chances for afternoon storms mainly east of I-65 Saturday.
Cloud cover will continue to increase through the morning and into the afternoon as an upper level trough moves into the region. Into the day today, an upper level trough will work east out of the Middle Mississippi Valley and into the Mid Atlantic. The trough will continue pushing east Saturday, with Eastern Kentucky at its base by 18z. Given the better upslope flow, these will be best along the higher terrain bordering Virginia. Temperatures will continue to stay around the norm with afternoon highs Saturday in the low to mid 80s. Ridge/Valley splits won't be as predominant overnight Friday given the cloud cover expected.
This is associated with an upper level trof, which will bring showers and storms to the Midwest. However, a weak ridge moving through the lower Mississippi River Valley brings warmer temperatures, and higher humidity this weekend.
As we have been discussing for days now, a neutrally-tilted trough will move into the area this afternoon, bringing with it an enhanced chance of rain across the interior, but it will quickly exit to the northeast overnight. There is enough weak deep-layer large scale subsidence such that we should note a decreasing trend in rain chances from the southwest to the northeast from mid- to late evening on, especially north of the Highway 84 Corridor. Highs will gennerally be in the lower 90s.
Most of what occurs will be tied to the higher terrain of the southern plateau and TN mountains from the Smokies southward. TD Chattanooga Airport, TN 89 70 88 69 91 / 20 30 50 20 20 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 89 69 88 67 91 / 20 30 50 20 20 Oak Ridge, TN 87 68 87 67 90 / 20 40 50 20 20 Tri Cities Airport, TN 87 64 86 63 88 / 10 20 50 30 20.
(This evening through Saturday) Dry and warm tonight with lows in the low to mid 70s.
Winds will generally be light out of the south and southeast, except at FST where the low-level jet will keep winds elevated overnight.
On Saturday, as the low slowly moves east, southerly flow ahead of the low will increase llm and may align with a llj from I-29 east to produce some strong to severe storms Saturday evening.
Most of what occurs will be tied to the higher terrain of the southern plateau and TN mountains from the Smokies southward. CD Chattanooga Airport, TN 70 88 69 91 71 / 20 40 20 20 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 69 88 67 91 70 / 20 60 20 20 0 Oak Ridge, TN 68 87 67 90 68 / 20 50 20 20 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 64 86 63 88 66 / 10 60 30 20 0.
A leeside trough continued to slowly deepen across eastern Colorado in advance of this system as cross-mountain mid level flow was increasing out of the west-southwest. The deepening leeside trough and increased MSLP gradient will support at least breezy south winds through the night tonight. The exception would be across the northwestern zones (far west central KS) where winds will probably die off enough to decouple the near-surface layer closer to the leeside trough axis.
201 PM CDT Fri Aug 6 2021 Temperatures will return to normal for this time of year this weekend with high temperatures forecast to top out in the low to mid 90s across much of eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas.