Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
216 AM EDT SUN AUG 23 2015 COLD FRONT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. COURTESY OF A WEAK S/W TROF. A COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA MONDAY MORNING. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW THEN REMAINS TO THE NORTH THROUGH MID WEEK. ALTHOUGH SOME CLOUDS FROM THE UPPER LOW COULD EFFECT THE AREA AT TIMES. A WEAK COLD FRONT FORMING IN RESPONSE TO A SHARPENING OF THE UPPER LEVEL L/W TROUGH AXIS OVER THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS FRI TO KEEP THE DRY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS OVERNIGHT WITH A BROKEN LINE OF SHRA AND A WIND SHIFT.
A COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND SOUTHWARD FROM THIS LOW. NW FLOW WILL THEN TAKE HOLD ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY MONDAY AS A MUCH COOLER AND DRIER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES IN. THE INCOMING COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN WINDS BECOMING MORE SRLY THROUGH THIS MORNING. BUT THE REST OF THE PERIOD WILL BE DRY AS THE HIGH BECOMES DOMINANT.
WARMING TREND CRANKS UP AS THE RIDGE ALOFT MOVES OVERHEAD AND TEMPERATURES SOAR INTO THE 80S AT LOWER ELEVATIONS.
THE LOWEST POPS AND WARMEST TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED OVER OUR LOUISIANA PARISHES TODAY WHERE THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY ARE EXPECTED TO RESULT IN MAXIMUM HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 101 TO 105. A CLOSED LOW TRACKING EAST ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION AND ONTARIO WILL SEND A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD TOWARD OUR CWA TONIGHT. MODEL CONSENSUS DROPS THIS FRONT INTO NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI MONDAY MORNING AND TO THE HIGHWAY 82 CORRIDOR BY NOON. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSHING INTO OUR SOUTHERN ZONES BY MIDNIGHT WITH UPPER 50 TO LOWER 60 DEW POINTS STARTING TO FILTER INTO OUR NORTHERN ZONES.
THEN A MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING IN BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND.
450 AM CDT SUN AUG 23 2015 COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SURGE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE THIS MORNING. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE UPPER 70S TODAY BEHIND THIS MORNINGS COLD FRONT.
AHEAD OF TUESDAYS COLD FRONT. A PREFRONTAL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BRING SUNNY WARM WEATHER TO WESTERN WASHINGTON TODAY.
217 AM EDT SUN AUG 23 2015 COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE NEXT APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WEAK RETROGRADED TROUGH BACKING IN FROM THE EAST COAST. DIURNAL HEATING AND THE WEAK TROUGH MAY YIELD ISOLATED SHOWERS IN CATSKILLS TO PIKE CO PA THIS AFTERNOON. AS SUGGESTED BY THE HIGH RES WRF AND ARW MODELS. I WAS ABLE TO DELAY REINTRODUCTION OF EVEN ANY SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WITH APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ARRIVE MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL ROLL THROUGH THE AREA.
1216 AM CDT SUN AUG 23 2015 Robust line of thunderstorms is likely to develop over eastern Nebraska and western Iowa this afternoon and evening along and ahead of a fast-moving cold front. Cold front will be pushing into eastern MO and the Ozarks by sunrise Sunday with high pressure quickly building into the region behind it.
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE MONDAY.
A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE AND DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE THERMAL TROUGH OVER EASTERN OREGON WILL INCREASE HEAT ACROSS SE OREGON AND SW IDAHO TODAY AND MONDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. WILL SEE EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS INTO THE THERMAL TROUGH WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS ALOFT THROUGH MONDAY.
420 AM CDT SUN AUG 23 2015 THE NOCTURNAL MCS IN SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS IS NEARLY COINCIDENT WITH AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT.
330 AM EDT SUN AUG 23 2015 HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NEW YORK STATE WILL CONTINUE TO WEDGE SOUTH INTO THE AREA TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE WEST MONDAY AND CROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE IN FROM THE WEST AND REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEK AHEAD. LOWS A DEG OR TWO WARMER GIVEN AN INFLUX OF MOISTURE. BASICALLY IN THE L60S XCPT WARMER IN THE CITIES/ALONG THE BAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST ON MONDAY. MONDAY WILL BE WARM WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES APPROACHING THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
313 AM MST SUN AUG 23 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME REESTABLISHED TO OUR EAST.
A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP MOST OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS WARM AND DRY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. SUNNY AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL BREAK OUT FOR THE AFTERNOON AS THE HIGH SLIDES WESTWARD ACROSS THE STATE OF TEXAS.
214 AM EDT SUN AUG 23 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WITH DRY AIR INTO TONIGHT. COLD FRONT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. COURTESY OF A WEAK S/W TROF. THE LATTER WILL BE THE WORK OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE AND FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH IT. UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND A BROAD L/W TROUGH AXIS JUST TO THE W OF THE FCST AREA. HIGHS MON WILL BE A FUNCTION OF THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT. A WEAK COLD FRONT FORMING IN RESPONSE TO A SHARPENING OF THE UPPER LEVEL L/W TROUGH AXIS OVER THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS FRI TO KEEP THE DRY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS OVERNIGHT WITH A BROKEN LINE OF SHRA AND A WIND SHIFT.
NAM AND GFS INDICATED THE POSSIBILITY FOR LIGHT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS LATER TONIGHT SO HELD ONTO SOME VERY LOW POPS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SAN JUAN AND ABAJO MOUNTAINS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND BEYOND. BUT WILL WEAKEN SOMEWHAT UNDER THE RIDGE. THEREFORE ANOTHER DAY OF HAZE IS EXPECTED AS THE DIFFUSE SMOKE WILL STAY TRAPPED UNDER THE RIDGE. NIGHTTIME LOWS WILL INCREASE A LITTLE DUE TO THE BUILDING RIDGE. THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK.
633 AM EDT SUN AUG 23 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH THROUGH TONIGHT.
500 AM CDT SUN AUG 23 2015 (Today and Tonight) An upper trough is moving east from the northern Plains into the upper Midwest early this morning. Trailing portion of associated cold front is moving across northwest Oklahoma and the northern Texas Panhandle. Leaning toward a scenario with the cold front approaching the northern Big Country by late this morning, with the front weakening and slowing its southward movement into our northern counties this afternoon.
High pressure at the lower levels is sliding westward along the northern GUlf coast.
A COLD FRONT MONDAY. FOLLOWED BY COOLER TEMPERATURES DURING THE MIDWEEK PERIOD. WEAK RETROGRADED TROUGH BACKING IN FROM THE EAST COAST. DIURNAL HEATING AND THE WEAK TROUGH MAY YIELD ISOLATED SHOWERS IN CATSKILLS TO PIKE CO PA THIS AFTERNOON. AS SUGGESTED BY THE HIGH RES WRF AND ARW MODELS. I WAS ABLE TO DELAY REINTRODUCTION OF EVEN ANY SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WITH APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST. A COLD FRONT WILL ONLY GRADUALLY PASS WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY. GENERALLY OF THE LOW TOPPED VARIETY. COOL UPPER LOW WILL THEN SHIFT OVER EASTERN ONTARIO-WESTERN QUEBEC.
649 AM EDT SUN AUG 23 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. THEN HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY PUSH INTO THE AREA WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH NOT MOVING IN UNTIL LATE IN THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO BE ON THE LOW END WITH SOUNDINGS SHOWING TALL SKINNY CAPE. FORECAST AREA WILL BE BETWEEN A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING ACROSS ONTARIO AND A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.
A VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY SPINNING OVER CENTRAL PORTIONS OF MINNESOTA. THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS AND SFC COLD FRONT EXTEND TO THE S/SW INTO THE CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS. HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH CURRENTLY ACROSS ERN PORTIONS OF MONTANA/WYOMING. TEMPS AS OF 3 AM RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S TO THE MID 60S. WITH THE AREA SITTING UNDER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC CURRENTLY TO THE WEST OF THE CWA WILL GRADUALLY BUILD FURTHER INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD.
651 AM EDT SUN AUG 23 2015 THE STALLED FRONT IS EXPECTED TO RETURN NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TODAY THROUGH MONDAY.
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL TEND TO SUPPRESS THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WHILE BRINGING HOTTER TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA. 23/00Z UPPER-AIR PLOTS AND LATEST MODEL DATA INDICATE THAT HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS GENERALLY FROM SRN CALIFORNIA/NRN BAJA ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND INTO NEW MEXICO. MODELS INDICATE THAT THE HIGH SHIFTS TO A POSITION THAT EXTENDS FROM ARIZONA THROUGH NEW MEXICO AND INTO EASTERN TEXAS TODAY. AS THIS OCCURS FLOW WILL BECOME EAST TO SOUTHEAST WITH A WEAK DISTURBANCE PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN CHIHUAHUA MEXICO AND ACROSS THE ARIZONA/SONORAN BORDER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE MONDAY AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER BASIN.
234 AM EDT SUN AUG 23 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH THROUGH TONIGHT.
HAVE TRENDED TWD COOLER GUIDANCE FOR WRN AND NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA WHILE TRENDING TWD A COMPROMISE ALONG CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CWA AND WARMER FOR SERN PORTIONS.
Winds will mostly be out of the south overnight before a cold front moves into the area beginning around 15z. Models are still showing a weak cold front moving into northern Lea County Sunday morning, then slowly sagging south to the I-20 corridor by the afternoon. The highest rain chances will be along the front but weak upper level support may allow for only widely scattered convection to develop so have left PoPs at modest levels for this forecast. The front will lift north and undergo frontolysis beginning Monday as an upper level high builds back over west Texas.
640 AM EDT SUN AUG 23 2015 COLD FRONT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. COURTESY OF A WEAK S/W TROF. A COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA MONDAY MORNING. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW THEN REMAINS TO THE NORTH THROUGH MID WEEK. ALTHOUGH SOME CLOUDS FROM THE UPPER LOW COULD EFFECT THE AREA AT TIMES. A WEAK COLD FRONT FORMING IN RESPONSE TO A SHARPENING OF THE UPPER LEVEL L/W TROUGH AXIS OVER THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS FRI TO KEEP THE DRY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS OVERNIGHT WITH A BROKEN LINE OF SHRA AND A WIND SHIFT.
MOIST ADVECTION OCCURS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT IS NEAR THE MS RIVER. A STRONG VORT MAX WITHIN THE UPPER TROUGH WILL THEN TRACK ACROSS CENTRAL WI DURING THE AFTERNOON. THUS WENT WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY AMPLIFY THIS COMING WEEK ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CONUS. INDICATIVE OF IMPULSES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE RIDGE WITH LOW PREDICTABILITY.
336 AM CDT SUN AUG 23 2015 THE UPPER AIR PATTERN TONIGHT IS HIGHLIGHTED BY AN ELONGATED AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE SWRN CONUS. LOW PRESSURE WAS NOTED OVER SRN NORTH DAKOTA WITH A SECOND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER NRN SASKATCHEWAN. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OFF SHORE OF THE ALASKA PANHANDLE. A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM NORTHERN MINNESOTA SWD INTO FAR SERN NEBRASKA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST FROM EAST CENTRAL WYOMING INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEBRASKA. BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS THIS MORNING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA WILL DIMINISH LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVHD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY BUILD EST OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
A ridge of high pressure will be over the region through the period. A low pressure area will drop southward from Alaska to just off the coast of British Columbia to help prevent the ridge from building stronger by Monday.
351 AM CDT SUN AUG 23 2015 CORE OF INTENSE UPPER LEVEL LOW SLIPPING EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA. AS SECONDARY BAND OF PRESSURE RISES BEHIND UPPER TROUGH OF 2-3 HPA/3H PUSH THROUGH NORTHEASTERN SD IN THE PREDAWN HOURS. GREATEST INSTABILITY OF THE LOWER LEVELS REMAINS BELOW THE CLOUD DECK AS IT PUSHES THROUGH THE I-29 CORRIDOR. HAVE NEITHER EXPANDED ADVISORY THROUGH THE NORTHERN BUFFALO RIDGE LOCATIONS IN SW MN NOR EXTENDED ACROSS THE EXTREME EAST CENTRAL PORTIONS OF SD. WITH VERY DRY AIR AND DIMINISHED WINDS WITHIN THE RIDGE AXIS TONIGHT AS IT DRIFTS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA TONIGHT.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATE A POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH BACK TO THE WEST ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. HI-RES MODELS INDICATE THAT THIS TROUGH WILL WEAKEN THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS WELL AS THE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A BIT COOLER THAN YESTERDAY WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD THROUGHOUT THE DAY FROM THE SYNOPTIC FORCING. THE TROUGH WILL FINALLY MOVE TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT AND EXPECT PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL COME TO AN END.
415 AM CDT SUN AUG 23 2015 WV imagery shows an upper-lvl ridge extending across the srn CONUS, from SoCal to the Florida. To the north, a trough was ejecting into nrn MN. Closer to home, sfc obs and area radars show a cold front moving thru the Texas Panhandle, trailing the trough. Otherwise, thicknesses should bottom out Monday, but temps will remain above-normal Monday afternoon before the ridge intensifies over the SW CONUS later in the week, pushing temps once more into the upper 90s most locations. Unfortunately, models keep the theta- e ridge to the west, affording little chances of rain in the extended.
248 AM EDT SUN AUG 23 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS WARM AND DRY TODAY BEFORE A WEAK COLD FRONT RETURNS RAIN CHANCES TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS EAST INTO NEW ENGLAND. SURFACE RIDGING IS PROGGED TO BUILD ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION THROUGH MID WEEK UNDER AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH FROM A CLOSED UPPER ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.
THIS BUDDING RIDGE AND RELATIVELY DRIER AIRMASS ARE EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A MUCH LESS ACTIVE DAY IN TERMS OF CONVECTION TODAY. WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OCCURRING OVER THE COASTAL COUNTIES/PARISHES NEAR THE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE.
MODELS ARE SUGGESTING AN AMPLIFICATION OF UPPER RIDGING OVER THE WEST STARTING MONDAY.
A ROBUST MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS CENTERED OVER NORTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA WITH A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO WESTERN IOWA. LOW PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER SOUTH WESTERN ONTARIO WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH INTO EASTERN IOWA AND ARCING SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL KANSAS. CONVECTION REMAINED FOCUSED ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS COLD FRONT. DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO MID WEEK AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS LEAVING OUR AREA IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW.
Similarly, the surface cold front will have similar timing, with much drier and cooler air advecting into the region today.
TO THE NORTH OF A LOW/MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED JUST SOUTH OF THE AL/MS GULF COAST. WIDESPREAD NOCTURNAL SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DRIVEN BY DEEP-LAYER ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING TROUGH WILL LIKEWISE CONTINUE TO TRANSLATE EASTWARD THIS MORNING. SHORT TERM MODELS SUGGEST THAT MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENT MOTIONS WILL STRENGTHEN IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW AMPLITUDE WAVE THIS MORNING.
420 AM EDT SUN AUG 23 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN NEW YORK EARLY THIS MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST MONDAY MORNING.
CONCUR WITH THE GFS DETERMINISTIC WHICH BUILDS THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE REGION DRG THE PERIOD.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW THIS AFTERNOON. COOLER.
ALBEIT WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS COVERING THE ENTIRE EASTERN UNITED STATES INCLUDING THE SUNSHINE STATE AND THE FLORIDA KEYS. WITH THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE RIDGE AXIS.
249 AM CDT SUN AUG 23 2015 06Z SFC DATA HAS THE COLD FRONT FROM ROUGHLY KDEH TO KSTJ WITH PERHAPS A PRE-FRONTAL TROF JUST AHEAD OF IT. DEW POINTS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WERE IN THE 60S WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 40S AND 50S BEHIND THE FRONT. THE STRONG COLD FRONT APPEARS TO BE MOVING EAST AROUND 25 TO 30 MPH WITH CONVECTION RIGHT ALONG IT. BREEZY AND MUCH COOLER WEATHER WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE MIDWEST. AND DIMINISHING WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE LOWER 50S.
HOWEVER WITH AN UPPER TROF TO OUR WEST AND 8H WINDS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO ARND 20 KT. SHRA/TSRA HAVE REDEVELOPED ACROSS MS IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE TO OUR WEST AND WEAK WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH TOWARDS THE AREA. SHRA/TSRA MAY LINGER INTO THE LATE MORNING HOURS AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE TN VALLEY BUT COVERAGE SHOULD BE LIMITED BUT NOT CONFIDENT IN THE TIMING TO INCLUDE IN CURRENT TAF PACKAGE.
MEANWHILE UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD WEST OF THE CWA SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH MAX TEMPS ON MONDAY ABOUT 10-15 DEGREES WARMER AS MID LEVEL TEMPS RISE. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE ROCKIES THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE AND ENERGY MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
528 AM EDT SUN AUG 23 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS WARM AND DRY TODAY BEFORE A WEAK COLD FRONT RETURNS RAIN CHANCES TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS EAST INTO NEW ENGLAND. SURFACE RIDGING IS PROGGED TO BUILD ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION THROUGH MID WEEK UNDER AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH FROM A CLOSED UPPER ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.
THE ATLANTIC RIDGE BUILDS BRIEFLY ACROSS THE AREA TUE-WED BEFORE BEING SHUNTED BACK TO THE SOUTH AS A TROUGH AMPLIFIES DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD OF THE UNITED STATES. THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF ARE BULLISH IN DEVELOPING THIS AND KEEP IT JUST EAST OF THE BAHAMAS AS THE AMPLIFYING TROUGH DEFLECTS IT.
444 AM EDT SUN AUG 23 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. THEN HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY PUSH INTO THE AREA WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH NOT MOVING IN UNTIL LATE IN THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO BE ON THE LOW END WITH SOUNDINGS SHOWING TALL SKINNY CAPE. FORECAST AREA WILL BE BETWEEN A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING ACROSS ONTARIO AND A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.
A TROUGH AXIS ALSO EXTENDS DOWN INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY TO EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. THE ASSOCIATED UPPER LOW IS OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA.
COLD FRONT STEADILY MOVING ACROSS FORECAST AREA. DEEP COLD UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY WITH AN UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR MASS WRAPPING AROUND THE WRN SIDE OF THE SYSTEM ACROSS NRN MINN.
A TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT TOWARD MID TN LATE THIS AFTERNOON BRINGING AN INCREASE IN POPS. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING A DRY AND COOLER AIR MASS ACROSS THE REGION. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 80S. HEIGHTS WILL RISE AS A RIDGE BUILDS UP OVER THE CENTRAL STATES AND EXPANDS TOWARD TN.
AS A STRONG AND DEEP COLD FRONT SURGES SOUTHEAST ACROSS MID- AMERICA. GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR EXPLOSIVE UPDRAFTS ATOP A VORTICITY-RICH LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS ALONG THE COLD FRONT. COOLER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES SOUTH ACROSS THE HEARTLAND.
322 AM EDT SUN AUG 23 2015 COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE NEXT APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WEAK RETROGRADED TROUGH BACKING IN FROM THE EAST COAST. DIURNAL HEATING AND THE WEAK TROUGH MAY YIELD ISOLATED SHOWERS IN CATSKILLS TO PIKE CO PA THIS AFTERNOON. AS SUGGESTED BY THE HIGH RES WRF AND ARW MODELS. I WAS ABLE TO DELAY REINTRODUCTION OF EVEN ANY SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WITH APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ARRIVE MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL ROLL THROUGH THE AREA.
IT APPEARS AS THE SYSTEM WANTS TO CLOSE OFF FROM THE MEAN FLOW SHORTLY AS MOISTURE CAN BE SEEN MOVING SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST ALOFT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS. ESPECIALLY NORTH FACING SLOPES AND RIDGES. COMPACT AND POWERHOUSE UPPER LOW TRACKS FROM NORTHWEST COLORADO AT MIDNIGHT TO NORTHWEST KANSAS BY DAWN. WITH THE LOW AND MID LEVELS SATURATING QUICKLY OVERNIGHT. UPPER LOW TRACKS SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS.
831 PM EDT TUE MAR 22 2016 DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A POTENT COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE AREA WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATER ON WEDNESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFF TO OUR SOUTHEAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
THE TROF IS MOVING EAST AND PRECIP HAS LARGELY ENDED. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROF IS SLOWLY MOVING EAST AND COOLER AIR FROM CANADA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TOWARDS SOUTHWEST MONTANA THROUGH THE NIGHT.
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 45 68 55 68 / 0 0 20 90 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 44 69 53 69 / 0 0 10 80 OAK RIDGE, TN 44 68 53 68 / 0 0 10 80 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 36 71 46 70 / 0 0 10 70.
907 PM PDT TUE MAR 22 2016 DRY WEATHER WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. Showers have ended and high pressure is building over the state.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF -DZ ALSO PRESENT WITH THE LOW CIGS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH ALL TAF SITES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THAT COULD HELP ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES NEAR THE TERMINALS ANS SWITCH WINDS TO THE NORTH. ANOTHER WARM DAY IS ON TAP FOR WEDNESDAY GIVEN CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE LOW-LEVELS ACROSS MOST AREAS. THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL TEXAS. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE JUST WEST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR AROUND MIDNIGHT. LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL SPREAD OVER THE REGION BEGINNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN U. WE DO EXPECT CONVECTION TO FIRE ALONG THE COLD FRONT AS IT ENTERS AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR.
THE WINDS ARE A RESULT OF THE COMBINATION OF AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SPREADING ACROSS THE FLORIDA GEORGIA BORDER. THIS UPPER LOW WILL PUSH THE RIDGE OVER NORTH FLORIDA OUT TO THE EAST WHILE THE OLD FRONT LIFTS BACK TOWARD THE NORTH THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT HIGHER MOISTURE AND BETTER LIFTING AS THE OLD FRONT MOVES BACK OVER THE KEYS AS A WARM FRONT.
A COLD FRONT WITH A N-NW WIND SHIFT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY EVENING. ONE INTERESTING ASPECT TO TOMORROW'S WEATHER IS THE POSSIBILITY OF A HABOOB DEVELOPING IN THE PANHANDLE IF HIGH-BASED VIRGA SHOWERS DEVELOP ALONG AND NORTH OF THE COLD FRONT, THEIR DOWNDRAFTS POTENTIALLY HELPING TO ENHANCE DUST CONCENTRATIONS ALONG THE BOUNDARY. /ISSUED 350 PM CDT TUE MAR 22 2016/ STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE DIGGING AND STRENGTHENING REACHING PEAK MATURATION ON WEDNESDAY TO OUR NORTH. COLD FRONT SHOULD ARRIVE JUST BEFORE 00Z ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES.
THE COLD PACIFIC TROUGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL EXIT TO THE EAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WEDNESDAY.
COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW AS THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST LATER WEDNESDAY.
LLWS continues to be a concern overnight as the low level jet strengthens. The persistent and strong southerly winds will lead to an increase in low level moisture overnight and into tomorrow, although judging by the low to mid 50s dew points just onshore along the Gulf, likely not to the degree depicted in the models. The most likely area for development will be across far northeast Oklahoma and far northwest Arkansas as the cold front overtakes the dryline. Despite skepticism about the low level moisture return, there should be enough instability and definitely enough deep layer shear that isolated severe weather, including both hail and wind potential, will be possible during the evening.
759 PM EDT TUE MAR 22 2016 A COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK AND STALL.
WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET INCREASING AFTER 03 TO 06Z. A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER FAR NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA.
820 PM EDT TUE MAR 22 2016 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CAROLINA COASST WILL ALLOW WARM AIR TO MOVE NORTH INTO OUR REGION. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S IN SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN TO THE LOWER 60S IN WEST CENTRAL INDIANA.
724 PM EDT TUE MAR 22 2016 DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A POTENT COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE AREA WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATER ON WEDNESDAY.