Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Tomorrow is shaping up to be quite warm, with 00Z models coming in slightly warmer for eastern ND, where highs in the mid 80s is not out-of-the-question. Temperatures Sunday should be even warmer than today with 80s likley in the RRV. While mixed layer Td values aren't particularly low the warmer temperatures will still result in minimum RH values in the teens to lower 20s. The first half of the workweek will be quiet, as an upper level ridge holds tightly to the region.
Activity expected to fizzle out later this evening, with greater moisture in the low-levels looking to favor some fog or low stratus development late tonight. Look for highs in the low to mid 70s, though a bit cooler if morning clouds are slower to diminish.
/issued 323 PM CDT Sat May 15 2021/ SHORT TERM (Tonight through Sunday Night):Convective cluster that initiated over Nuevo Leon prior to sunrise is nearing the Lower Texas coast as of this writing.
A cumulus line from this afternoon, which ran east to west just south of the lower Keys, has been the catalyst for convective development and regeneration through the evening, with the heaviest showers appearing near stationary just to the south and west of Key West. Eventually the convection will decrease as the density current moves farther from the mainland and either clears the lower Keys or dissipates.
450 PM MDT Sat May 15 2021 20z surface analysis had two troughs across the CWA, one from central ND into central NE, and another from central MT into southeast WY. Water vapour loop had splitting upper trough from AB to CA with northern stream energy heading toward the northern plains and upper low over southwest central CA.
High pressure over the upper Ohio River Valley will drift eastward through tonight. The high will reach the Mid-Atlantic Coast Sunday morning while maintaining a ridge across the eastern Great Lakes through mid-week.
Expect temperatures in cooler spots east of the I-65 corridor and south of the Tennessee River as a result. Near and north of the Tennessee River, expect lows to be much warmer (due to more persistent cloud cover) and drop into the lower to mid 50s, despite the very light winds expected.
Some of these echos are probably not reaching the ground, or only producing some light sprinkles as the air in the lower atmosphere is still quite dry. Temperatures across the region were in the lower 60s, though a few spots had dropped into the upper 50s. Latest surface analysis reveals high pressure slowly retreating eastward as lower pressure edges in from the west with a couple tendrils of weak boundaries crawling toward the OH Valley. Rainfall chances will continue throughout the day Sunday as isentropic lift along a warm frontal boundary sets up over the region. Sunday morning mins will likely range in the low to mid 50s with afternoon highs in the upper 60s to low 70s.
A beautiful day across the Tennessee Valley with temperatures early this afternoon in the low to mid 70s. There are some showers associated with this trough currently across northern Arkansas and Missouri. This light southerly flow coupled with cloud cover overnight will lead to warmer overnight lows. Expect lows tonight will be in the low to mid 50s.
807 PM EDT Sat May 15 2021 Broad high pressure remains to the north and ridges over Florida and into the Gulf of Mexico. High pressure to the north will keep E-NE winds around 20 knots through the early morning hours, which has warranted the issuance of a Small Craft Advisory.
Along this boundary over the next few hours will be a favorable area for a few tornadoes given the low LCLs, effective storm relative helicity values 200 or greater and improving low level shear forecast early this evening by all the CAMS. Until then a few isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will be possible late day near a surface boundary/warm front that will be located just north of the Garden City and Dodge City area.
515 PM EDT Sat May 15 2021 High pressure briefly builds over the region through tonight before shifting offshore into the western Atlantic on Sunday.
A weather system passing through Arizona from the west will bring cooler temperatures and gusty afternoon winds to start the new work week.
Overnight lows are on track to fall into the lower to mid 50s. Northern portions of the forecast area will see the highest PoP's through early evening. Temperatures should reach the lower 70s across the northern CWA, but a wedge of upper 60s is likely south of I-70 where rain chances are higher.
High pressure aloft will then build into the area and keep skies mostly clear through the day on Sunday. Also trended the overnight low temperatures a couple of degrees cooler than previously forecast to better trend with current conditions. -Coulston High pressure will keep the region mostly clear with warming temperatures through Sunday, with some locations reaching near 80 on Sunday.
Latest surface analysis reveals high pressure slowly retreating eastward as lower pressure edges in from the west with a couple tendrils of weak boundaries crawling toward the OH Valley. Rainfall chances will continue throughout the day Sunday as isentropic lift along a warm frontal boundary sets up over the region. Sunday morning mins will likely range in the low to mid 50s with afternoon highs in the upper 60s to low 70s.
Based on observations further to our west very it looks like very little of this is actually making it to the ground with how dry the lower levels are. ABM Chattanooga Airport, TN 56 81 57 82 62 / 0 10 0 10 20 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 56 76 57 80 59 / 10 20 10 10 20 Oak Ridge, TN 55 76 55 80 58 / 10 20 10 20 20 Tri Cities Airport, TN 51 70 55 75 56 / 20 40 30 40 20.
Broad ridging was positioned over the Southern Plains while residual troughing aloft was located just offshore of the Mid Atlantic Coastline.
946 PM EDT Sat May 15 2021 High pressure will remain centered near southern New England over the next several days, resulting in mainly dry weather, warm afternoons, and cool nights.
An upper level ridge over the Pacific Northwest will continue to influence western Washington through the weekend.
556 PM EDT Sat May 15 2021 High pressure briefly builds over the region through tonight before shifting offshore into the western Atlantic on Sunday.
405 PM CDT Sat May 15 2021 Early this afternoon an upper trough was digging southeast into the southwestern US. A northern stream upper ridge was moving east across the northern high Plains. Tonight through Sunday, the upper low across southeast CA will slowly drift east-southeast across northern AZ.
Another picture perfect day continues, although it is noticeably warmer than what we have been experiencing as of late.
18Z surface data has high pressure over the Ohio Valley with a stationary front across Oklahoma.
Best chances of overnight storms will mostly stay west of the area, although recent CAMs solutions suggest an uptick across parts of Pawnee/Osage counties after 06-07Z as the low-level jet slowly strengthens.
Overnight lows will fall into the 60s over much of the area tonight, with some locations reaching in the lower 70s, mainly along coastal areas south of the Cape that maintain an onshore flow.
628 PM EDT Sat May 15 2021 Upper level pattern today per water vapor imagery and RAP model heights features a blocking ridge over the eastern Pacific stretching British Columbia with a cutoff low over northern California. Overnight, a mid level warm front will continue to push through the U. The low clouds and any fog that develops should mix out through the mid to late morning hours.
1020 PM EDT Sat May 15 2021 High pressure will remain just south of Long Island through Sunday.
534 PM MDT Sat May 15 2021 The influences of a northern stream trough pulling across the area, as well as support from a right-entrance region of an upper jet will support convection across the entire area this afternoon and evening. The northern stream trough and associated upper jet exits the area tonight, with the main focus shifting to an upper low currently over central California. This upper low will slowly shift southward into S.
Mid-level clouds have us off to our mildest start in nearly two weeks, but will also severely limit diurnal warming especially as they thicken along the northward moving warm front.
1049 PM CDT Sat May 15 2021 (This evening through Sunday) A general moistening of the lower layers will continue through the weekend.
This morning, a slowly advancing warm front exists just south of the CWA. As we move into Monday, the aforementioned warm front will become stationary bisecting the forecast area. A closed upper level trough will be moving through the Four Corners region.
Tonight, a weak upper level trough will push across the area. The mentioned wave moves out of the state Sunday morning, with weak ridging building in for Sunday. Upper level ridge strengthens on Monday creating more warm and dry conditions.
An upper level ridge builds north over the Plains before moving over the Lower Mississippi River valley by Monday evening. A weakly organized low level ridge along the East Coast rotates anti-cyclonically, leaving a low level ridge stretching west over the Southeast. Sunday will see temperatures topping out in the low to mid 80s area wide, with Monday seeing high temperatures in the low 80s along and west of the Tombigbee River, mid to upper 80s east.
Easterly flow under mostly sunny skies are going to raise daytime temperatures to the low/mid 80s, but the low humidity should make for a comfortably warm afternoon.
Tomorrow will see the high pressure around the Great Lakes region slide off the eastern seaboard and an area of lower pressure developing along the eastern slopes of the rockies. What looks to happen for the week ahead is the high pressure to the east remains off the east coast blocking the low pressure from moving to east and the frontal boundary remains stalled. Finally with an upper level low swinging in from the west will bring all the ingredients for a prolong rain event that looks to kick off on Monday but will continue through the rest of the week.
We have been reaching the saturation point in cooler areas this morning leading to the fog. With ridging developing aloft and high pressure moving in at the surface for today and tomorrow we will be in a drier and warmer pattern.
300 AM EDT Sun May 16 2021 High pressure will bring a long stretch of seasonable and rain- free weather. Temperatures slowly warm during the week as center of the high pressure shifts east of the area. Ridging across the Plains and a longwave trough over the west- central Atlantic will maintain a northwest mid and upper level flow across the Carolinas.
High pressure centered to the northeast will prevail across the region through Tonight. Highs will range Today from the upper 70s at the beaches to the lower 80s inland.
818 PM PDT Sat May 15 2021 Low pressure will drop southeast over the deserts of California on Sunday, maintaining cool conditions with gusty onshore winds over the mountains and deserts, and a deep marine layer to the coastal mountain slopes.
A gradual but significant amplification is expected to occur during the week, so by the end of the work week there will be a seasonably deep trough near the West Coast and strong ridging in the East, anchored by a closed upper anticyclone over the mid-Atlantic states. That will leave the forecast area with a deep-layered southerly upper flow along the western flank of the upper anticyclone. The continuation of these showers, the development of fog after the showers, and warmer temperatures on Sunday are the main highlights from this forecast period. This low-level moisture, in addition to calm surface winds, will allow for patchy fog to develop. Although there will be dry air aloft, the low-level moisture will stick around for the day keeping mostly cloudy skies in the forecast.
The altered mid level wind field will persist through much of the day, and the low level winds will actually be stronger than the mid level winds across eastern Colorado and western Kansas. The best area for severe weather later today and tonight will be across eastern Colorado and adjacent far western Kansas, where low level upslope flow will aid in thunderstorm initiation off the higher terrain. The moist, southeast low level upslope flow pattern will continue across eastern Colorado and western Kansas until the Southwest Low moves east/northeast across the High Plains. High POPs will remain in the forecast through mid-week until the slow-moving upper low moves fully out of the southwest Kansas region and/or weakens.
Blend of models backed off on pops as did several other models, warranting a trimming of the higher pops in the south. After Monday, all signs still point towards much warmer temperatures arriving as upper level ridging takes hold and pushes much of the shower/storm potential to the west and north of the area. As the ridge strengthens I could see some fine tuning of pops over the next several days to try to pinpoint some better opportunities. High pressure over northern Indiana will gradually slide east into western Pennsylvania by the end of the forecast period.
436 AM EDT Sun May 16 2021 High pressure will be located off the East Coast through Monday. High pressure is starting to move the coast this morning and a light easterly to southeasterly flow will begin. Easterly flow off of the ocean will keep beaches much cooler than inland with highs in the mid to upper 60s. Partly to mostly cloudy skies are expected with high temperatures in the low to mid 70s.
Water vapor imagery suggested the weak upper wave is kicking east with a ridge beginning to build in. A small region of drier air was evident in the WV imagery and that may help to mix out patches of the lower stratus as it moves through this morning. The subsidence from the ridge moving in may initially slow the clearing of the clouds as a subtle inversion develops early this AM. Then drier air and better mixing will scour out these lower clouds leaving partly cloudy skies and notably warmer temps with highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s. The upper ridge becomes centered over northern MN/WI on Monday and highs warm another couple degrees with values in the mid 70s for most with values in the 60s lakeside.
Still expect most of the rain tonight/Monday associated with the disorganized troughing approaching the Mid MS Valley to remain south as mid-level ridging builds over the area. In contrast to the global models, some of the higher res models still try to bring some rain into at least southern parts of the area tonight into Monday with mid-level frontogenesis and a moisture transport signal into this area. On Monday, more sun is expected, especially to the north, and with a relatively dry airmass, expect highs well into the 70s for most areas, with upside potential of low to mid 80s in typically warmer valley locations/central WI.
borsum A rather weak overall flow pattern will continue over our region while an upper low over the west coast drifts toward Arizona. Temperatures will be warmer on Sunday, with highs in the 70s.
-- Dry on Monday, with chances for rain thereafter -- Dry weather looks to persist into Monday and Monday night with ridging developing both at the surface and aloft.
The low level jet is not as strong this afternoon, with wind shear being a lesser factor.
Otherwise, there will be a trend toward above normal temperatures as upper-level ridging increases across the area through the day Monday.
Much more widespread convection is expected Monday as the trof axis becomes centered over the region.
Currently seeing light showers between Pierre-Mobridge- Gettysburg area are trying to make their way to the east-northeast. With varying cloud thickness and shower locations, there will be warmer highs to the north (mid-upper 70s), then cooler values over the southern part of the CWA (mid 60s south of Pierre). After today, the surface-850mb ridge slowly lifts north through Monday.
Early this afternoon an upper trough was digging southeast into the southwestern US. A northern stream upper ridge was moving east across the northern high Plains. Tonight through Sunday, the upper low across southeast CA will slowly drift east-southeast across northern AZ. Surface based storms will develop on the high Plains of CO late this afternoon and these storms may congeal into a MCS complex.
1037 PM MDT Sat May 15 2021 20z surface analysis had two troughs across the CWA, one from central ND into central NE, and another from central MT into southeast WY. Water vapour loop had splitting upper trough from AB to CA with northern stream energy heading toward the northern plains and upper low over southwest central CA.
A more robust cold front looks to arrive Monday night with much cooler temperatures for the middle to end of the week. Skies were mostly clear thanks to a ridge of high pressure overhead.
High pressure will remain north of the region over the Carolinas with breezy East to Northeast winds weakening after sunset this evening. Mostly clear skies and dry airmass will lead to another night of below normal temps with lows in the lower/middle 50s inland and around 60 degrees in the onshore flow along the Atlantic Coast. High pressure north of the region over the Carolinas will weaken slightly but still expect an onshore/Easterly flow across the region that will be breezy during the daytime along the Atlc Coast with winds at 15-20 mph, but lesser winds of 10-15 mph expected inland.
142 AM EDT Sun May 16 2021 High pressure over the upper Ohio River Valley will drift eastward through tonight. The high will reach the Mid-Atlantic Coast Sunday morning while maintaining a ridge across the eastern Great Lakes through mid-week.
Plus, the warm front that is expected to be the source of forcing is still over the Tennessee Valley. Meanwhile, weak ridging aloft will make it tough for any rain to spread northward. So, the northward progression of rain will be slow this afternoon and evening until a northward surge in the warm front in the Mon 06-09Z time frame. The thunderstorm threat will also become more widespread through the night Sunday as that warm front pushes northward. the aforementioned warm front will linger across central Indiana keeping rain chances and a low thunderstorm threat in the forecast. Daytime highs both today and tomorrow are expected to top off in the low to mid 70s with dewpoints in the 50s.
This may be aided by a surface warm front lifting north tonight and into Sunday. As a result, the trend will remain toward a warmer and more moist airmass across the region. The warm front is expected to stall roughly in the vicinity of I-64 Sunday night or early Monday with some 500mb ridging extending north across the FA. This will focus the better rain/thunder chances across the northern part of the FA Sunday night, although chances may also increase across SEMO Sunday night in response to an approaching 500mb short wave in the wake of the eastward moving 500mb ridge. The airmass change will yield increasingly warmer temps, closer to normal values, with low temps around 60 by Sunday night as surface dewpoints reach the upper 50s.
Strong storms will continue to move east across the northern Permian Basin and portions of the Lower Trans Pecos. /issued 151 PM CDT Sat May 15 2021/ An upper trough is centered over California and Nevada with westerly flow over West Texas and Southeast New Mexico. The upper low moves over Southern California/Southern Nevada on Sunday with another dryline across West Texas and Southeast New Mexico. The previously mentioned upper low moves over the Four Corners region on Monday with the dryline expected to be across the far eastern Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos.
Mon will be much warmer farther e as the dryline surges e into the very far ern edge of CWFA. Meanwhile a mid/upper level low will have moved into the 4-Corners area. As the mid/upper low and assocd trof move e Wed dry air and more stable conditions will hold, except far s. By Thu low-level mstr will have returned wwd, but minor ridging aloft general provides unfavorable set up for tstms.
419 AM EDT Sun May 16 2021 High pressure over the local area will continue to move slowly east to the Mid-Atlantic Coast by Monday morning.
Otherwise, ridging continues to overtop the cutoff low and build into the PacNW. Ridging begins to weaken slightly and shift east on Monday as an upper level low drops southeast along the BC coast and towards the PacNW. Will be slightly cooler as heights lower a bit but still warm with flow turning more southwest. Cascade showers possible Monday night as the upper low and cold front begin to push onshore.
1226 AM EDT Sun May 16 2021 High pressure to our north will bring a long stretch of seasonable and rain-free weather.
1238 AM EDT Sun May 16 2021 High pressure to our north will bring a long stretch of seasonable and rain-free weather.
A broad upper level ridge will begin to build in to the region today which will result slightly warmer temperatures in the mid 70s to mid 80s and mostly clear skies. A light southwesterly wind is also expected today as the ridge moves in, with a few stronger gusts possible across the eastern half of the CWA during the afternoon. Monday will be another warm and dry day with the ridge overhead. Winds will become southerly and slightly stronger which is resulting some near critical fire weather concerns for Monday afternoon, mainly across the northern tier of counties where the RH is expected to be the lowest (upper teens to low 20's).
The closed low will be parked almost directly over the Four Corners Monday morning and will remain there for much of the day.
Dry weather settles in tonight as the upper level ridge over the Plains builds closer to Lower MI. The low level wind field and associated thermal advection remain weak in this pattern but the building ridge supports a leg up on high temperatures to start the week.
We continue to see weakening flow in the mid levels and the best lapse rates are progged to remain on our western flank or further west across the high plains which is expected to result in less severe weather today when compared to the past couple of days across our forecast area. Confidence in the high plains storms drifting east tonight remains low and the better nocturnal signal may clip our southeast Kansas counties or remain just east of our forecast area but forecast confidence remains fairly low for this period. A slow moving mid/upper trough over the Southwest will gradually approach the region as we move through the beginning of the week.
Based on observations further to our west very it looks like very little of this is actually making it to the ground with how dry the lower levels are. Scattered showers will spread east through the TN valley through the day in the vicinity of a warm front. Winds are expected to be pretty light, but should pick up an increasingly southerly direction at KCHA and KTYS as warm front lifts north. CD Chattanooga Airport, TN 81 57 82 62 81 / 10 0 10 20 20 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 76 57 80 59 79 / 10 10 10 20 20 Oak Ridge, TN 76 55 80 58 79 / 20 10 20 20 30 Tri Cities Airport, TN 70 55 75 56 77 / 30 30 40 20 30.
155 AM EDT Sun May 16 2021 High pressure will remain just south of Long Island through Sunday.
The warm front is expected to become a little more defined after midnight and the low levels will become more moist. As a warm front lifts north today, winds will become more southerly but remain light.
141 AM EDT Sun May 16 2021 High pressure at the surface and aloft will drive sensible weather through the week.