Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
359 AM EDT TUE JUL 5 2016 A pressure ridge will extend from the Atlantic westward into the northern Gulf of Mexico through the week. A weak pressure trough will linger near the forecast area. Lee-side troughing will continue over the forecast area. Cannot rule out severe storms although the higher threat appears to be north of the forecast area. Another hot and steamy day is in store with high temperatures forecast in the upper 90s to near 100 and dew point temperatures in the lower 70s. A weak trough will develop in the upper flow across the region overnight tonight and into Wednesday. Convergence and increased moisture/instability ahead of the weak trough will combine with strong afternoon heating on Wednesday, creating an increasing chance for showers and thunderstorms through the day.
The highest chances for storms will be at KCSM and KHBR, but even at these sites, the probability is too low to include a tempo group at this time.
The Subtropical Ridge axis remains over Central Texas guiding any rain making features north of South Central Texas while keeping a warm subsident cap over our area. A surface to mid level ridge remains over the Gulf of Mexico maintaining a flow of moist/humid air over South Central Texas.
Weakness along the nern periphery of the ridge will allow for some chances for convection Wednesday, especially over the ern half of the region.
628 AM EDT TUE JUL 5 2016 Lower VFR stratus in the 4000-5000 foot range will increase this morning as west flow develops in wake of passing trough.
635 AM EDT TUE JUL 5 2016 A pressure ridge will extend from the Atlantic westward into the northern Gulf of Mexico through the week. A weak pressure trough will linger near the forecast area. Lee-side troughing will continue over the forecast area. Cannot rule out severe storms although the higher threat appears to be north of the forecast area. Another hot and steamy day is in store with high temperatures forecast in the upper 90s to near 100 and dew point temperatures in the lower 70s. A weak trough will develop in the upper flow across the region overnight tonight and into Wednesday. Convergence and increased moisture/instability ahead of the weak trough will combine with strong afternoon heating on Wednesday, creating an increasing chance for showers and thunderstorms through the day.
A seasonably high moist boundary layer will be in place ahead of the boundary with surface dewpoints climbing into the lower 70s through the afternoon. Thunderstorms are forecast to develop along a cold front extending from the Upper Great Lakes region west across Iowa and along the SD/Neb border during the afternoon.
An upper level low pressure trough is forecast to remain over the West Coast through the week and into the weekend. Temperatures will remain slightly cooler than normal and our area will continue to see widespread low clouds during the night and morning hours along with patchy drizzle near the ocean.
626 AM EDT TUE JUL 5 2016 Aviation An area of high pressure will track eastward across Michigan today providing the region with dry weather. The models are in relative agreement in tracking a broad mid level ridge through Lower Michigan today and most of tonight. A weak mid level wave is shown to migrate through the ridge late tonight.
Wednesday appears to be a more unstable day with an upper level trough bearing down on the Great Basin and northern Rockies. Another forecast problem is that the upper low and accompanying surface cold front on Wed should boost the wind. The short-lived ridge of Thu/Thu night breaks down during the day Fri. A closed upper level low actually crosses through the Idaho panhandle on Sun. With the low pressure system crossing the Idaho Pan Handle Wednesday, we expected some scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms at KIDA and KPIH. The low pressure pressure disturbance over British Columbia is still on track to cross the Idaho Pan Handle into Montana on Wednesday. High temperatures in the Salmon-Challis Forest should moderate a little cooler today while humidity edges up a couple percent. Ridgetops should still see some gusts to around 30 mph.
Today will be the breeziest day with widespread gusts around 35 mph and up to 40 mph along the Sierra Front as a passing trough strengthens the pressure gradient across the region. Temperatures will start around to slightly above seasonal averages today and will slowly decrease each day as ridging retreats southward.
followed by a pacific trof for Wednesday. Drier and cooler air is expected across the area today behind the cold front that moved through overnight. Storms should be concentrated across the southern and southeastern zones, with Theta E ridge nosing into the region later this evening. An upper low pressure system move into western Montana during by Wednesday afternoon. A Theta-E ridge also noses into southeast somewhat.
338 AM EDT TUE JUL 5 2016 Upper level ridging will provide dry and warmer conditions today. Areas of fog and low clouds this morning should scatter out by late morning or early afternoon allowing highs to reach the low to mid 80s.
625 AM EDT TUE JUL 5 2016 Upper level ridging will provide dry and warmer conditions today. Areas of fog and low clouds this morning should scatter out by late morning or early afternoon allowing highs to reach the low to mid 80s.
Breezy afternoon winds will develop, with the highest wind speeds Wednesday as a trough passes north of the state.
This trough will slide east today into tonight, before yet another subtle disturbance moves through on Wednesday. Given subsidence building in behind the departing trough today, do not expect convection along this front to be high in coverage today. However, a sticky airmass will remain in place (dewpoints in the 70s), thus low temperatures will only dip into the low and mid 70s. Early Wednesday morning, the boundary will begin to lift back north as an effective warm front. This low-level moisture should set the stage for plenty of instability Wednesday afternoon/evening, likely fostering scattered convection as convective temperatures are breached. With temperatures climbing into the low 90s and dewpoints in the middle 70s, heat indices will approach 100 degrees in spots that don't see convection Wednesday afternoon.
An area of low pressure will remain just west of the CWA tonight into the day Tuesday before pushing across and east of the area Tuesday night. Another low pressure system will track over the central plains Wednesday. Slightly cooler air returns behind the system.
The region will see slight cooling today as a weak trough moves through with northwest flow increasing as the upper level trough shifts east. Fog is also likely in places on the coast north of Cape Blanco Heights rise over the region Wednesday, with the thermal trough deepening along the coast.
and surface dew points around 70 degs in the lowlands signal the summer dog days are trying to bark. The old warm front that had lifted well north on Independence Day. There is a weak 925 mb dew point gradient and weak low level trof axis in western Ohio at 08z.
high pressure continues to shift off to the Southeast allowing a low pressure system over Nebraska and the Eastern Dakotas to move into NW Iowa by late in the day.
Dry and even warmer air will arrive for the remainder of the work week.
347 AM EDT TUE JUL 5 2016 While the broad ridge off the southeast CONUS has contributed an elevated warm layer to help suppress convective development through the holiday weekend. Southeast portions of the area may still be fighting against the ridge to limit updrafts and stronger development. Have not gone likely pops but general 40% chance area-wide since ridge to southeast should be weaker and any lingering boundaries from Tuesday development may locally enhance triggering pretty much anywhere in the CWA.
Deep layer high pressure will maintain today keeping southwest winds going from the surface to around 500mb before backing to the southeast on the north side of a TUTT low in the Gulf of Mexico. Heat indices will still run in the low 100s across the bulk of the area; more towards 105F across the I-75 corridor.
Dry and a little cooler on Wednesday. As broad trough energy begins to sag south through the pacific northwest tonight into Wednesday look for high temperatures to lower by 5-7 degrees with most valley locations in the mid to upper 80s.
Wet-bulb freezing levels are also quite high at ~14kft.
The flow pattern across Northeast Montana (Nemont) today will be based on the broad trough, and cooler air-mass, in Western Canada and the Pacific Northwest, and the hot air-mass south of Montana. The trough sent an initial wave out ahead of it early this morning, generating showers and isolated thunder. A shallow ridge follows for today which will result in mostly dry conditions through tonight. By Wednesday at 18Z the trough begins to dig into the North Rockies.
The ridge that is across South Texas will continue to expand northward through the day resulting in increasing heights and thickness values. This high is still progged to reach peak intensity (595-596 dam at 500 mb) on Wednesday over the Big Bend at which point 700 mb temps soar locally to around 18C, so max temps on Wednesday were nudged up even closer to our heat advisory threshold (105F air temp or heat index value irrespective of low temps).
Cooler column and cloud cover will hold temperatures down to at or blo average temperatures. Otherwise with waves exiting the FA and weak high pressure building in will see dry conditions spreading from west to east.
311 AM CDT TUE JUL 5 2016 The main upper level trough was situated over the Mississippi Valley region as of 08z. Overcast skies and a light southerly wind will prevent much cooling over the next few hours and minimum temps are expected to remain in the low to mid 70s. Meanwhile, the low level convergence will also intensify slightly across the eastern portion of the forecast area. By the afternoon, the greater probabilities for precip will begin to shift eastward as the low level flow becomes more zonal.
High pressure will continue to be the main feature influencing the forecast for the next several days. Going into the weekend, high pressure will weaken as an upper low moves through the Great Lakes region.
Upper level trough currently over the Pacific Northwest, will continue the trend of cooling the region before it transitions east on Wednesday. Today, expect cooler temperatures, about 3 to 5 degrees less than yesterday, breezy and increased cloud cover in association with a short wave rotating through the trough. The trough itself will move through the region Wednesday, with no precipitation expected, other than a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms over the central Idaho mountains. Breezy conditions in the trough's wake with clearing skies and drier conditions.
The 500 mb high pressure will continue to build to 595-597 mbs over the Western Atlantic waters today into Wednesday while extending west into Central Florida. With the limit of the showers and thunderstorms over South Florida today and again on Wednesday, high temperatures will be able to warm up into the lower to mid 90s over the metro areas to the mid to upper 90s over the interior areas. The relative humidity will also be up through this time allowing for the heat indices to get up into the lower 100s over the metro areas to the 103 to 105 degrees over the interior areas.
Increased cloud cover will allow for cooler highs with max temps topping out in the low 80s north and mid-to-upper 80s south.
Upper level ridge will be centered over the region both today and Wednesday.
Current trends have matched HRRR and this would continue to favor dense freezing fog potential in area of advisory at least through 20Z. Issued dense fog advisory with mention of freezing fog/slick roadways, as we now have 4 locations in northwest Kansas reporting 1/4sm and a few locations even lower (Colby/Oakley). Warm front currently located across northeast Colorado will sag southward today. The far southwestern part of the forecast area will be on the warm side of the front and temperatures could briefly reach the lower 60s, but most of the area will be on the cold side where highs will be in the 20s and 30s.
Best forcing with the approach of the 850 mb low and warm front reaches the southwest half of Wisconsin this afternoon and anticipate accumulating snows to work into areas south of highway 29 by late afternoon, and then continue to spread over the rest of the forecast area this evening. The combination of the 850 low track tonight and then a couplet jet Saturday appears to focus the higher accumulations of 9 to 12 inches over east central Wisconsin through Saturday evening.
Latest water vapor imagery and model soundings indicate that middle and upper level moisture currently streaming eastward ahead of the developing Midwestern trough aloft will keep most areas in thicker cloudiness this afternoon. Chattanooga Airport, TN 47 40 62 43 / 0 60 70 90 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 44 37 62 42 / 0 50 60 80 Oak Ridge, TN 43 37 61 40 / 0 50 60 90 Tri Cities Airport, TN 40 32 60 43 / 0 30 40 70 TN.
On Saturday night a strong high pressure area will be centered off the eastern seaboard over the Atlantic under a zonal flow ahead of a developing mid level trough. In this pattern, ridging extends across Florida providing a southerly wind component.
High pressure over the region will weaken through Saturday.
258 PM CST Fri Dec 16 2016 An active weather period will continue through tomorrow with several potential impacts including ongoing strong winds, some brief freezing drizzle immediately behind the cold front tonight, followed by snow and blowing snow tomorrow afternoon, and strong northerly winds behind the front resulting in very low wind chill values. The forecast is quite complicated tonight through tomorrow as a strong cold front will move through. Forecast soundings lead to some concern for freezing drizzle immediately behind the front although the thickness of the saturated layer is marginal. Also, there is some concern for a dry near-surface layer precluding freezing drizzle behind the front. As locations end up deeper within the cold air mass, freezing drizzle will become less of a concern.
The satellite shows pretty solid cloud cover as the remainder of an upper trough swings through. This will gradually diminish today as the trough moves away, but there will be some light accumulations in the east side mountains. The hemispheric view shows a wave number of 3 around the globe with two strong blocking highs over the Pacific Ocean and Western Europe. west coast as a long wave trough now over the area will move off to the east Friday. The highs Friday will be 5 to 10 degrees below normal over most of the area. The lows Friday night will be below freezing everywhere but most of the immediate coast.
An strong cold front has already moved almost completely through our CWA. This afternoon: Fog and stratus has stubbornly held on with light northeast flow persisting and low level moisture pooling behind cold front. BL moisture is still shown to decrease from the north to southeast by late afternoon, however in the meantime dense freezing fog will continue. Forcing increases along leading edge of large scale trough, with strong frontogenesis along elevated frontal zone over our CWA late tonight transitioning southeast through Saturday. Confidence in these lower visibilities being widespread or persistent is low due to the lower snowfall amounts currently forecast, so a winter weather advisory is not anticipated.
Along with the cooler air, drier conditions are also in place (PW values which were up to 1.
Snow levels will initially range from 7000-8500 feet, but will fall rapidly to around 5000 feet tonight as a cold front moves across Arizona. A trough of low pressure and associated cold front, located over California this afternoon, will push across Arizona overnight.
Model consensus continues to be ho hum about the potential for light freezing rain across NE Georgia, but with overrunning moisture expected around midnight tonight, could see a few hours where light freezing rain/drizzle could accumulate. Of concern will be the lower elevations/valleys where cold air will pool and remain out of the warm nose aloft. Still advertising accumulations of freezing rain of mere hundredths (0. The area of concern remains to be the Blue Ridge to Jasper to Gainesville area. With limited accumulations, have opted not to issue a Freezing Rain Advisory, but instead for a strongly worded SPS to highlight the potential for impacts due to a light glaze.
The low clouds, drizzle, and fog this morning will clear from west to east from this morning into about mid-afternoon (clouds are unlikely to clear during the day in southeast Oklahoma, east of our TAF sites). Strong south winds will be the rule through the day, but winds will turn southwest and diminish somewhat as a strong cold front approaches tonight. Still expect a breezy day and elevated fire weather conditions across extreme western OK and western north TX as unseasonably warm temps develop ahead of the highly anticipated cold front within strong downslope, veering low level flow. Some freezing drizzle may be possible with fropa, but if it does develop it should be short lived as the front races southward through Saturday morning.
210 PM CST Fri Dec 16 2016 Temperatures have climbed to near to above freezing in southeast Missouri and much of west Kentucky, and into the upper 20s across the rest of the PAH forecast area. A better surge of moisture is expected across the area Saturday ahead of our approaching cold front. ECMWF and NAM show the cold front bisecting the PAH forecast area from southwest to northeast by 18z, with the GFS just a few hours slower. The quick drop in temperatures will result in quite a mixture of precipitation for the overnight hours Saturday, with rain to freezing rain and sleet to snow. Though freezing and frozen precipitation could cause some road impacts, also of concern will be liquid already on the ground from earlier rain freezing with the rapid temperature drop.
Developing low pressure over Texas/Oklahoma panhandle this afternoon will begin to deepen as it lifts NE toward the Great Lakes area by Saturday afternoon. Associated cold front will be pushing in toward Middle Tennessee by Saturday evening. Any prospects for frozen pcpn would be a very light freezing rain event with only trace accumulations possible over the higher elevations of NE TN and SW VA. Gradually deamplifying upper level trough swings through the Eastern United States during the second half of the weekend.
High pressure is moving off the Mid-Atlantic Coast this afternoon while low pressure is moving into the plains. Saturday, low pressure will move into the Great Lake Region and a cold front will sweep south toward the gulf.
After that point we get into the stronger WAA regime and could see low level clouds start to increase, which is evident in the low clouds streaming N/NE out of southern MS.
Issued by National Weather Service Wichita KS 158 PM CST Fri Dec 16 2016 An impressive baroclinic zone remained in place across the Central Plains early this afternoon with KEHA rising to near 70 while KULS/KGCK and KDDC remain near freezing. In addition, a period of freezing drizzle may develop late tonight before the column saturates supporting a period of light snow during much of the day on Saturday.
Lots of sunshine expected today although temperatures will be on the cool side due to the lower post- frontal values that will move through.
This weekend, upper level ridging will allow for large scale subsidence and warming over the region. Maximum temperatures will reach the low 80s along the east coast metro and mid 80s towards the western interior, 5 to 10 degrees above average.
Models continue to indicate the low pressure system to the south pulling snow out of the southeastern zones by early Saturday morning.
/Issued 505 AM CST Fri Dec 16 2016/ Gradient southwest winds will develop today by late morning or midday ahead of an approaching upper trough dropping south and east from the Pacific Northwest into the Great Basin region by late today. An arctic cold front is forecast to push south across the Oklahoma and the extreme northern Texas Panhandles by 12Z Saturday. Cannot rule out the possibility of some patchy light freezing drizzle developing between 09Z and 12Z Saturday over the Oklahoma and northeastern Texas Panhandles.
Light west winds will keep the low levels well mixed with most temperatures not as cold as tonight.
Currently a large trough continues to deepen across the Pacific Northwest and the associated cold front is now in the northern plains. As the low moves east the front will drop south and will enter our area Saturday evening and during the overnight hours. Winds behind the cold front will be strong with speeds sustained at 20 to 25 mph.
and in the lower 40s further south. Expect strong to possible severe storms along a cold front that will rapidly move through the region Saturday night.
Current trends have match HRRR and this would continue to favor dense freezing fog potential in area of advisory at least through 20Z. Issued dense fog advisory with mention of freezing fog/slick roadways, as we now have 4 locations in northwest Kansas reporting 1/4sm and a few locations even lower (Colby/Oakley). Warm front currently located across northeast Colorado will sag southward today. The far southwestern part of the forecast area will be on the warm side of the front and temperatures could briefly reach the lower 60s, but most of the area will be on the cold side where highs will be in the 20s and 30s.
1239 PM EST Fri Dec 16 2016 Low pressure will bring a wintry mix of snow, freezing rain, and rain to the region tonight through Saturday night. A brief push of warmer air will accompany this system with temperatures pushing into the 30s to low 40s on Saturday.
820 AM PST Fri Dec 16 2016 An arctic cold front will push through the region today.
Central plains cyclone will continue to undergo cyclogensis and pull out of the plains and into the Mid West as an inverted trough. A warm front will pass through the Mid State after midnight giving temps a boost.
Overall, a deterioration in ceilings will occur thru 17/12Z as low level moisture increases as a sfc warm front swings thru the mid state region after 17/00Z and a weak upper level disturbance moves across our area also, as the mid state will be placed in the broad warm sector of a developing sfc frontal system.
Otherwise, forecast on track with unseasonably mild conditions spreading inland as coastal/warm front shifts north through the day. /ISSUED 542 AM CST Fri Dec 16 2016/ Deck of MVFR ceilings and fog banks have been slow to work up from farther down the coast with the warm front, but are beginning to move in from the southwest now. High pressure is moving eastward and about to leave the Ohio Valley for the Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic States. On the flip side, with solid onshore flow of moist air over relatively cooler waters, sea fog development is a forecast on more solid ground. That environment will exist until the cold front comes late Saturday night to clear out any lingering fog.
This slightly cooler, crisper airmass behind the last frontal passage continues to hold over the region. The ridge of high pressure at the surface continues to extend across the southern portions of the peninsula of Florida, helping suppress rain chances and cloud cover. /issued 419 AM EST Fri Dec 16 2016/ Today-Tonight: Frontal boundary has moved into the Florida Straits early this morning, leaving a slightly cooler and drier, though still above normal, atmosphere across South Florida.
223 PM EST Fri Dec 16 2016 A wintry mix of precipitation is expected with weekend low pressure. Light snow should develop later this evening with a change over to freezing rain from south to north overnight. Temperatures will rise overnight, and will quickly rise above freezing by daybreak south, and by mid to late morning north. Have continued to hold onto freezing rain for a time after air temperatures go above freezing with cold ground to be overcome.