Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
However, we will likely see another shot of drier and possibly cooler air which will keep things on the more comfortable side at least in the short term. LL temps and moisture continues to slowly moderate under a weak ridge which is mostly situated north of the region dominating the mid MS Valley and into the Great Lakes. The ridge will continue to slide east over the OH and TN Valleys but the base of it will be fairly flat leading to weak zonal flow tomorrow. High pressure will remain in control at the sfc and still generally centered to the N. This will put the area back under weak northwest flow but it will also help to usher in another weak cold front, well more like dry air.
Forecast Summary: - Cooler temperatures forecast to end the work week.
1025 PM CDT Tue Oct 4 2022 Generally dry but gradually warmer weather expected tonight and through the next few days as the airmass modifies ahead of the next cold front. Expect another somewhat cool night, although lows could be a few degrees warmer than last night with temperatures ranging from the upper 50s to lower 60s. 24 (This evening through Wednesday) Mid-afternoon sfc analysis shows high pressure centered over the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley ridging swwd through the ArkLaTex to the wrn Gulf, maintaining a light, mainly nerly low-level flow across the forecast area.
943 PM MDT Tue Oct 4 2022 Water vapor imagery this afternoon shows the slow moving upper low pivoting across the forecast area with an upper ridge axis further upstream along the west coast. These showers will taper off late this afternoon and evening with the loss of daytime mixing and subsidence on the backside of the upper low.
125 AM EDT Wed Oct 5 2022 An upper low will remain near the Mid-Atlantic coast through Wednesday, maintaining a northerly breeze and scattered clouds over our area.
Tonight will be another cool one outside of Chicago under high pressure, though not as cold as early this morning due to gradually increasing high clouds. Expecting lows in the low-mid 40s outside of Chicago, with upper 40s-low 50s in the city. Area with probably best chance for cooler than forecast lows is east central Illinois and rural northwest Indiana. Despite increasing mid and high clouds on Wednesday, more robust warm advection should again steer high temps up into the lower-mid 70s.
These values are at the lowest values observed for early October PW climatology. Temperatures are currently in the mid 40s to low 50s early this morning and expect readings will drop down to around the low to mid 40s for most locations by daybreak. Upper level heights will also rise slightly as a closed low currently located across the Mid-Atlantic region progresses eastward out over the Western Atlantic. Further to the north and west, there is another closed low that will move into the Upper Midwest. Closer to home, a ridge between these two closed lows will extend across the Tennessee Valley northeastward into the Great Lakes Regions.
130 AM PDT Wed Oct 5 2022 High pressure will maintain the quiet weather pattern with above average temperatures through the end of the week. High pressure across the West will continue to block any storms and meaningful rainfall potential from arriving in the Sierra and western Nevada through the rest of the week. This weekend a slight deviation westward of the high pressure ridge may allow for a weak system to drop through the Great Basin.
A combination of isentropic forcing for ascent, falling heights, and convergence along an upper-level trough over northwest Ontario through western Minnesota will result in upward vertical motion. The trough will slowly drift eastward tonight into the North Shore area and the I-35 corridor Wednesday morning. Sprinkles and showers will persist along and ahead of the trough. Primary concern through the period is the cold front that will push through the area Wednesday night, bringing windy conditions into Thursday along with much colder temperatures.
300 AM EDT Wed Oct 5 2022 Discussion/Marine The high pressure ridge will continue in control of the wx pattern for one more day today and bring partly cloudy skies and unseasonably warm conditions with high temps reaching well into the 70s. A strong cold front dropping down from the nnw will bring clouds and showers Thursday.
All of this activity is with the trough of an upper level closed low which translates east into the Missouri River valley by early Wednesday. A cold front arrives for Thursday.
Meanwhile, in the Lower Keys, mostly clear skies prevailed with no precipitation detected. Overnight low temperatures were in the mid 70s in the Upper and Middle Keys, while in the Lower Keys, temperatures reached the lower 70s. As the trough moves east, an area of high pressure in the Great Lakes will sink southeastward. The shifting of the ridge will cause winds to turn to the northeast to east today. Northeast to east winds will usher in higher moisture content from the eastern Atlantic waters, increasing dew points and ending the cooler weather we experienced the past several days.
629 AM CDT Wed Oct 5 2022 The Arctic cold frontal boundary is just north of the forecast area. The well advertised Arctic cold frontal boundary finally passes through the forecast area today and into the evening. Much colder air will filter into the region behind this frontal boundary, which may lead to widespread freezing temperatures Wednesday morning, especially in the northern half of the forecast area. Lows tonight will probably be within a few degrees of freezing with areas in the northern half of the state more likely to see a freeze. For one, trailing high pressure won't quite have settled in, so breezy winds should persist tonight.
A low pressure system will linger over northwest Mexico and southern Arizona with a chance of showers and thunderstorms through the coming weekend. The low pressure system now near western New Mexico will cut-off and meander back toward eastern Arizona and northwest Sonora over the next 72 hours.
Dry, comfortable, and noticeably warmer conditions arrive on Thursday, but precede another cooling trend with showers downwind of Lake Erie into the weekend. Much improved/dry and warmer weather expected over the NW 2/3 of CPA with max temps in the 60s or +10-20F warmer than yesterday. Min temps in the 40s trend neutral to warmer night/night and generally a few degrees above climo. Expect fair and warmer conditions to arrive on Thursday (warmest day of the week).
Most areas should be a bit warmer than yesterday thanks to good mixing with northwesterly winds and plenty of sunshine. A strong cold front will race south across the forecast area and create a pretty good temperature gradient across the region. Northern zones around Ord that see the cold frontal passage earlier in the morning will likely only see highs in the lower to mid 60s, while Kansas zones that spend most of the day ahead of the front should see highs well into the middle and even possibly upper 70s.
Upper level ridging will keep unusually warm and dry conditions over the region through the weekend.
Model guidance is in good agreement for a broad trough to dig into the eastern half of the US on Thursday, which will cause the ridge currently over the region to retrograde. The westward movement of the high pressure ridge will cause the Northern Rockies to transition to northwesterly flow aloft with a cooler easterly flow at the surface.
High pressure continues to dominate the weather over northern and central Nevada. The forecast area can expect light surface winds, mostly sunny skies, and above normal temperatures with highs ranging from the low 70's to low 80's and low temps ranging from the upper 30's and mid to upper 40's.
725 AM EDT Wed Oct 5 2022 High pressure will prevail this week.
A few light showers are ongoing across the gulf waters south of our LA Parishes thanks to a weak trough making its way westward. At the surface we have a broad area of high pressure due south of the Great Lakes region that will continue to push south closer to us. It is pretty dry at the surface with the influence of the high keeping winds light and northerly over most of the inland areas. Stigger The upper air pattern will generally be dominated by a broad mid to upper level trough over the Eastern U.
Jones A few light showers are ongoing across the gulf waters south of our LA Parishes thanks to a weak trough making its way westward. At the surface we have a broad area of high pressure due south of the Great Lakes region that will continue to push south closer to us. It is pretty dry at the surface with the influence of the high keeping winds light and northerly over most of the inland areas. Stigger The upper air pattern will generally be dominated by a broad mid to upper level trough over the Eastern U.
The upper low over New Mexico continues to push some cloud cover and even a sprinkle or two into southern Apache County. As the low moved farther east of our area, some drier air has entered into areas west of a Page to Payson line where dewpoints have fallen into the 30s/low 40s.
535 AM EDT Wed Oct 5 2022 A large high pressure area was still over the region this morning.
630 AM CDT Wed Oct 5 2022 (Today through Thursday) A developing cut off upper level low across New Mexico and Arizona today will move southwest into Sonora and Baja California Thursday, while weak downstream ridging develops across South Central Texas. Dry low levels and the influence of the weak ridge will continue dry conditions across the region.
The Arctic cold frontal boundary is just north of the forecast area. The well advertised Arctic cold frontal boundary finally passes through the forecast area today and into the evening. Much colder air will filter into the region behind this frontal boundary, which may lead to widespread freezing temperatures Wednesday morning, especially in the northern half of the forecast area. Lows tonight will probably be within a few degrees of freezing with areas in the northern half of the state more likely to see a freeze. For one, trailing high pressure won't quite have settled in, so breezy winds should persist tonight.
337 AM MDT Wed Oct 5 2022 ----------------------------- Synoptic Features of Interest ----------------------------- [1] An upper level low. [2] An upper level low. [3] A broad upper level trough in central Canada will amplify and extend southward into the central/eastern CONUS (Thu-Thu night). ----------------------------- Today-Tonight: Synoptic subsidence/height rises -- in the wake of the upper low progressing eastward from the Northern Plains to the Upper Midwest -- will act to suppress cloud cover over most of the area today, except (perhaps) south of I-70. where upper level cloud cover may linger into the afternoon -- depending on the evolution of the stalled upper level low over the Desert Southwest -- and the coverage/distribution of associated convection in NM.
Ridging surface and aloft with a very dry airmass will produce sunny sky and quickly warming temperatures. Today, we remain under northerly flow with high pressure just to our west. Overnight temperatures will be a few degrees warmer so no threat of patchy frost as temps will be in the low to mid 40s.
Dry with above normal temperatures expected through at least Thursday with high pressure just to our west. A broad area of low pressure develops over southern Arizona and northwest Mexico late week, and with easterly flow, moisture may push back westward for slight chance of showers and thunderstorms over northwest Arizona and southeast California, mainly this weekend. Mostly clear skies this morning as the region lies under a northerly flow between a trough over the southern Rockies and a ridge of high pressure over California. Feature will have no appreciable impact on the area other than produce some afternoon cumulus over the higher terrain today.
742 AM EDT Wed Oct 5 2022 Aviation The high pressure ridge will continue in control of the wx pattern for one more day today and bring partly cloudy skies and unseasonably warm conditions with high temps reaching well into the 70s. A strong cold front dropping down from the nnw will bring clouds and showers Thursday.
1049 AM EDT Wed Oct 5 2022 High pressure will prevail this week.
Highs today will be a tick warmer than the past few days with more locations nearing the 90 degree mark or better.
740 AM EDT Wed Oct 5 2022 A warmer and sunnier Wednesday and Thursday is on tap.
624 AM CDT Wed Oct 5 2022 (Wednesday through Thursday) As a large upper level ridge drifts eastward over the eastern CONUS, zonal flow aloft will hold conditions steady through Wednesday, followed by the remaining upper level trough comprising the Omega block which defined the weather pattern early this week. With an axis over the Chicagoland region and western Great Lakes, said trough will not be responsible for bringing any precip to the ArkLaTex (and we're just as shocked as anyone by that), while northeasterly flow rebuilds aloft, steering a dry front into the Four State Region.
425 AM CDT Wed Oct 5 2022 Most areas should be a bit warmer than yesterday thanks to good mixing with northwesterly winds and plenty of sunshine. A strong cold front will race south across the forecast area and create a pretty good temperature gradient across the region. Northern zones around Ord that see the cold frontal passage earlier in the morning will likely only see highs in the lower to mid 60s, while Kansas zones that spend most of the day ahead of the front should see highs well into the middle and even possibly upper 70s.
526 AM MDT Wed Oct 5 2022 The upper low was located over southeast SD with its attendant trough axis into the central High Plains. Drier north-northwest flow aloft prevailed between the trough and stout upper ridge in the western CONUS. The model consensus progs the upper low and trough to progress east-southeast into the Midwest through Thursday.
658 AM CDT Wed Oct 5 2022 (Today through Thursday) This AM, persistent broad E Conus surface ridging will continue through today. A cold front extends from MN SSWWD into the TX Panhandle. Also, we will see some scattered cirrus in the SRN part of the state around the base of the E Conus upper low. This upper low should weaken and push NEWD into the Atlantic later today.
Dry conditions will persist through the rest of the week as a high pressure settles into place. Broad high pressure has settled in over the southeast U. and will ridge across the waters producing rain-free conditions through the week.
79 Previous Discussion: /Tonight through Wednesday/ Weak low level warm air advection and ridging aloft will result in slightly warmer temperatures tonight and Wednesday with lows from the mid 50s to the lower 60s and highs from the mid 80s to the lower 90s. Moisture associated with an upper trough across the Southern Rockies and High Plains will send a few high clouds our way on Wednesday but no precipitation.
High pressure is building in across the area from the north with the cold front in place across the FL Straits.
KEY MESSAGES: - Warm (relative to October) again today before a cold front passes overnight tonight. Looking ahead for today, the low pressure system will continue to create the possibility for light rain. Westerly winds during the day today will become gusty northerly winds by early Thursday morning as the upper level trough progresses eastward.
721 AM EDT Wed Oct 5 2022 (through Tonight) Patchy ground fog will be expected early this morning, mainly in more marshy areas, and near area lakes and waterways, where the cool air will lay over the relatively moist and warmer surface. High pressure will build south across the area through Tonight. The combination of the dry airmass that is in place, and the ridging overhead will lead to a bright sunny day Today, and clear skies Tonight. Highs Today will be below normal with readings rising into the lower 80s inland, and upper 70s coast.
(Tonight through Thursday night) Weak ridging has remained in control over the area today with a generally southwesterly flow aloft bringing in some clouds and a few light showers into our western zones. This ridging is expected to continue an eastward progression through the period while a low develops over the Desert Southwest, maintaining the flow out of the southwest through the end of the cycle. At the lower levels, a weak trough will be nearing the area tonight into Thursday with winds gradually becoming more east to southeasterly. In regards to temperatures, highs on Thursday will range from the lower 80s along the coast to around 90 degrees over the Brush Country. Overnight lows will be in the 60s tonight, increasing by a degree or so on Thursday night ranging into the lower 70s at some locations.
An upper level trough will dig into the northern plains Thursday night. Ahead of the associated cold front, temperatures will warm nicely into the 70s Thursday afternoon. The aforementioned cold front will arrive in southwestern Nebraska Thursday evening and western Kansas Thursday night.
With these skies cleared due to the dry front, radiational cooling will allow for overnight temperatures to drop into the low to mid to 50s. Thursday will see similar dry autumn weather conditions with cooler morning temperatures.
329 PM CDT Wed Oct 5 2022 (Issued 329 PM CDT Wed Oct 5 2022) Tonight and Thursday: There will continue to be chances for sprinkles this afternoon and evening ahead of an upper level low moving through the Northern Plains. By Thursday morning, a strong cold front will begin to advance across the area.
/NEW/ /Through Thursday/ Yet another pleasant and warm October day is expected across North and Central Texas as weak ridging aloft continues to influence the region. Despite the surface wind shift, ridging aloft will result in another day of above normal warmth with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s.
The upper level trough responsible for said conditions is viewed nicely on various satellite products, including water vapor imagery and CIRA GeoColor. As of early-mid afternoon, the bulk of the activity over the CWA continues to be driven by kinematic forcing with the trough axis swinging through the state. For the remainder of the afternoon/evening, the majority of shower activity will remain tied most closely to the core of the upper low as it slowly slides E/SE. The immediate airmass behind this trough is not markedly different, meaning lows tonight will largely be similar to previous couple of mornings. The major cool down will quickly move into the region tomorrow though as a piece of the longwave trough pattern drops southward out of central Canada. The surface cold front will drop into northern Iowa tomorrow morning and work southward through the day.
(This afternoon through Thursday Night) Stacked high pressure was bringing another nice day with very dry air, full sunshine, and temps in the 70s. Surface winds will become south southwest on Thursday as a cold front approaches. The cold front will move through late Thursday night with no significant wx thanks to a continued very dry airmass.
(Tonight through Thursday night) Weak ridging over TX is keeping skies clear to partly cloudy this afternoon. Seasonal temperatures are expected to continue through tomorrow night with highs ranging from the low 80s to the low 90s. Tonight, expect lows in the upper 50s to mid 60s, but with some weak low level moisture return over the next 24-36 hours and increasing high clouds streaming in from the WSW it will be a couple degrees warmer for Thursday night.
355 PM EDT Wed Oct 5 2022 High pressure will move east of the area tonight.
However, given the low environmental/soil moisture conditions, the fog is likely to be of the shallow variety commonly observed developing atop fields and along/near bodies of water. Low temperatures tonight should fall into the 40s again for most locations, although warmer temps may occur very close to the still mild lakes.
A closed upper low spins off the mid-Atlantic states while a zonal pattern remains over the Florida peninsula. On the surface, broad high pressure settles in over the southeast U.
The primary feature influencing our weather through the end of the week is a mid/upper level trough that currently extends from north-central Mexico to the Upper Midwest.
225 PM EDT Wed Oct 5 2022 High pressure will prevail this week.
120 PM CDT Wed Oct 5 2022 As of 10:15 AM CDT, temperatures remain in the lower 70s across the Four State Region with dew points in the 50s maintaining pleasant Fall conditions. Water vapor imagery and 500MB analysis highlights some dry pre-frontal troughing shifting east across the area at this time. /16/ (Wednesday through Thursday) As a large upper level ridge drifts eastward over the eastern CONUS, zonal flow aloft will hold conditions steady through Wednesday, followed by the remaining upper level trough comprising the Omega block which defined the weather pattern early this week. With an axis over the Chicagoland region and western Great Lakes, said trough will not be responsible for bringing any precip to the ArkLaTex (and we're just as shocked as anyone by that), while northeasterly flow rebuilds aloft, steering a dry front into the Four State Region.
Dry conditions will continue further north with building high pressure aloft over Northern Rocky Mountain region with a light north to northeasterly flow aloft. For Thursday, another nice early autumn fall day with mainly dry conditions with slightly warmer temperatures.
A low pressure system will linger over northwest Mexico and southern Arizona with a chance of showers and thunderstorms through the coming weekend. The low pressure is over New Mexico and will be starting to transition to our southwest through the rest of the day and into Thursday. Once the low pressure center moves to the southwest of Arizona, hovering around Gulf of California, a strong ridge will develop along the Pacific Coast. The low pressure center will be in an ideal position to bring some moisture from the tropics for daily afternoon thunderstorms. Even though the moisture is on the low end, it is just enough to create pesky showers and thunderstorms. CAMs are show Thursday afternoon to be a day for scattered thunderstorms as the low tracks across southeast Arizona.
Currently, air temperatures in most Keys island communities are in the lower 80s (exception - the rain-cooled areas of the middle Keys where it is still in the 70s). Dewpoint temperatures are up now in the lower to mid 70s. High temperatures should peak in the low to mid 80s this afternoon, with light mainly northeasterly breezes. Light to gentle north to northeasterly breezes will gradually veer to the northeast and east and freshen this morning as an area of high pressure builds into the Southeastern United States. Late this week into the weekend a cold front moving into South Florida will cause breezes become moderate to fresh.
347 PM CDT Wed Oct 5 2022 On track to be slightly warmer than average today with highs in the mid 70s with a few upper 70s down south. Water vapor imagery showing us in northerly flow aloft with an upper low spinning off to the northeast. Tomorrow a strong cold front comes through and will lead to a large temperature gradient from north to south across the CWA. Unlike a typical cold front rain and winds will lag behind the front with winds expected to pick up more during the afternoon.
An upper-level composite analysis this afternoon revealed a deep layer mean anticyclone centered over the Greater Antilles with deep westerlies extending south over most of the Gulf basin. Lower tropospheric flow across the Florida Keys and Straits of Florida was rather weak, with a mean trough extending southwest from the mid-Atlantic coast to the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. At the surface, a weak high pressure cell was centered over the mid- Mississippi Valley, with light northeasterly flow along its southeastern flank, in the Florida Keys. Current air temperatures in Keys island communities were mostly in the lower to mid 80s, with dewpoint temperatures up near 70F after being in the 60s for much of the last few days. During the next several days, we should see gradually increasing geopotential heights across the Gulf basin as a deep layer mean anticyclone shifts northwestward.