Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Light westerly winds expected through the first half of the TAF period, with a shift from the north or northeast behind a cold front 18-00Z. Plains today, and the Midwest tonight, will send a cold front south into the region Tuesday afternoon in it's wake. Temperatures will be about 5 to 10 degrees cooler north of Interstate 20, but should be pretty similar to today further south.
Have gone a little cooler for lows tonight for a couple reasons. Highs tomorrow are forecast to reach the lower and mid 50s.
304 AM CST TUE JAN 20 2015 HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM FLORIDA ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE CONFLUENCE OF THE OHIO AND MISSISSIPPI RIVERS HAS A COLD FRONT TRAILING SOUTHWEST INTO TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING.
A flat ridge of high pressure is over the region with higher surface pressure over Oregon. The light easterly flow late tonight will likely help to low the depth of the stratus deck and confined the area to the lower foothill slopes.
331 AM EST TUE JAN 20 2015 WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
PWAT THIS MORNING JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL AND THIS WILL IMPROVE A BIT WITH THE HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE COMING IN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A TAD COOLER BEHIND THE WEAK FRONT WITH THE COLDER AIR STILL BOTTLED UP TO OUR NORTH.
A FEW POCKETS OF LIGHT RAIN OR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING ALONG AND SOUTH OF ROUTE 30.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL PERSIST ALONG THE WEST COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. UPPER FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BE NORTHWEST ACROSS OUR AREA DOWNSTREAM FROM THE RIDGE.
A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM SOUTHEAST MISSOURI THROUGH NORTHERN ARKANSAS AND INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES A LITTLE COOLER THAN THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.
High pressure aloft will move into the area from the west after 15Z, generally decreasing showers. However, the flow aloft will shift more northerly over the eastern terminals (KHVR KLWT), which will bring a weak cold front south out of Canada.
BRIEF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SHOULD PROVIDE FOR MAINLY DRY WEATHER FOR THE REST OF THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. WITH TEMPERATURES STRADDLING THE FREEZING MARK.
1113 PM CST Mon Jan 19 2015 It has been a very pleasant day today with temperatures in the lower to middle 60s area wide. Temperatures tonight will fall into the lower to middle 30s with cloud cover slowly increasing overnight.
446 AM EST TUE JAN 20 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS LABRADOR TODAY.
1240 AM EST TUE JAN 20 2015 /ISSUED 255 PM EST MON JAN 19 2015/ AFTERNOON MIXING HAS BEEN BRINGING SOME DECENTLY LOWER DEWPOINTS TO THE SFC THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT AND RESULTANT RH VALUES IN THE LOW 20S FOR MUCH OF THE CWA. EVEN A BIT WARMER THAN TONIGHT.
This seems reasonable given the light flow already across the area that will continue due to the low and boundary.
WITH THE HIGH-RESOLUTION HRRR MODEL SHOWING PCPN PERSISTING AROUND VAIL PAST SUNRISE IN FAVORABLE MOIST OROGRAPHIC FLOW. PWAT THIS MORNING JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL AND THIS WILL IMPROVE A BIT WITH THE HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE COMING IN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A TAD COOLER BEHIND THE WEAK FRONT WITH THE COLDER AIR STILL BOTTLED UP TO OUR NORTH.
INTERMITTENT FLURRIES AND/OR FREEZING DRIZZLE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS ACROSS CENTRAL MINNESOTA. FLURRIES AND FREEZING DRIZZLE POSSIBLE AT TIMES.
HIGHS WILL STRETCH FROM THE LOW 30S IN THE NORTH TO THE MID 40S IN THE SOUTH.
437 AM EST TUE JAN 20 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST TODAY.
MODELS CONTINUE TO GO TOO HIGH WITH THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND THIS WILL PLAY A FACTOR AS THIS DISTURBANCE PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.
AN AREA OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/LIGHT SNOW WAS LOCATED NEAR THE LOW. THEN DEVELOPING LIGHT SNOW ARE THE HIGHLIGHTS OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. AND AREA OF FREEZING RAIN. ARE BEING AFFECTED BY BLACK ICE THIS MORNING WHERE ROAD SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED BELOW FREEZING. ROAD SURFACE TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE FREEZING BETWEEN 9 AM AND NOON.
Cooler temperatures are expected today compared to yesterday due to at least weak low level cold air advection along with more cloud cover to limit solar insolation.
SFC COLD FRONT DROPPING ACROSS REGION THIS EVENING WHILE A WEAK CLIPPER PASSES OFF OF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WITH LITTLE FANFARE FOR THE REGION. STRATUS SHIELD ACROSS CENTRAL PA WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT WHILE THE REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR ARRIVES. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM THE NORTH BY 12Z WITH NW/W FLOW PERSISTING.
Afternoon readings will range from around 40 degrees northwest of the Illinois River where clouds will become thickest, to the lower 50s southeast of I-70.
THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE UNTIL SEEDER-FEEDER ICE ACTIVATION KICKS IN.
1140 PM CST MON JAN 19 2015 COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON TUESDAY. SFC TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING OVER KANSAS TONIGHT DUE TO THE THICKER CLOUDS IN THESE AREAS. COOLER AIR ALOFT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE PASSING SHORT WAVES TO OUR NORTH. THE WIND WILL ALSO BE A BIT GUSTY SO IT WILL NOT FEEL AS NICE OUT DESPITE GOOD MIXING HELPING HIGHS TO STILL REACH INTO THE 40S NEBRASKA TO THE LOWER 50S KANSAS.
307 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WAS MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING. WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE AND FRESH SNOW COVER.
FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW MINIMAL SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD OTHER THAN THE LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION.
* QUIET BUT CONTINUED COLD HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL PLAINS BUILDS INTO NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY SHOULD SEE GOOD AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE DESPITE TEMPERATURES STAYING WELL BELOW NORMAL.
435 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015 A WEAK COLD FRONT REACHED THE FLORIDA KEYS THURSDAY EVENING. WINDS WILL BE HIGHEST WEST OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE AND LIGHTER AND MORE VARIABLE EAST OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE.
1202 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015 QUIET DEEP WINTER WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER SASKATCHEWAN THIS AFTERNOON SETTLES TO THE OHIO VALLEY BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AT LEAST ISOLD SNOW SHOWERS COULD OCCUR WHERE WINDS IN THE LOWEST 2-3KFT ARE ONSHORE. NOT EXPECTING TEMPS LATER TONIGHT TO BE AS LOW AS SEEN ON THU MORNING AS THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH WIND 975-950MB AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH TO PROHIBIT PRIME RADIATIONAL COOLING. DUE TO A COMBINATION OF LIGHTER WINDS FARTHER INLAND AND ALSO WARMER TEMPS ALONG THE SHORE. NAM SHOWS A BROAD 500 MB TROUGH OVER MOST OF THE U.
An upper level trough off the Vancouver, Canada coastline will dig southeast across WA and OR during the next 24 hours. A minor upper level trough across the four corners area will dig southeast across northern TX and OK, bringing a chance for measurable snow along across OK and north TX on Friday. The increased cloud cover and western edge of low-level cold air-mass will keep highs in the low to mid 20s.
1238 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015 A WEAK COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THIS EVENING. /ISSUED 810 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015/ A WEAK COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED FROM WEST PALM BEACH SOUTHWEST TO THE NAPLES AREA THIS EVENING.
312 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015 LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH RIDGING NOTED THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND NORTH GEORGIA.
LIGHT WINDS AND ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE OVER FAR SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT BRINGING ANOTHER FRIGID NIGHT WITH DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS. CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING THROUGH EASTERN MONTANA INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES TROUGH THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE MIDWEST WITH RIDGE OVER THE PACIFIC BRINGING NORTHERLY FLOW TO OUR AREA. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS BEHIND DEPARTING HIGH WILL BRING SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES.
316 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015 UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN PLAGUE THE REGION AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING SLIDES SOUTHEAST INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. READINGS WILL REACH THE LOWER TEENS TO LOWER 20S WITH THE WARMEST HIGHS IN SOUTH CENTRAL SD AND MISSOURI VALLEY WHERE LITTLE OR NO SNOWCOVER EXISTS. WIND CHILLS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY WARMER THAN ADVISORY CRITERIA.
COLDEST MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES PUSHING OUT OF THE STATE TODAY IN COMBINATION WITH AN SURFACE ANTICYCLONE PUSHING INTO PORTIONS OF OHIO WILL ALLOW WIND DIRECTIONS OVER SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN TO MAKE A CONCERTED MOVE TO SOUTHWESTERLY.
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS FLATTENS OUT AN MOVES ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY. TO THE LOWER AND MID 20S ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. CLEAR SKIES AND LIKELY THE COLDEST NIGHT UNTIL NEXT WINTER WILL OCCUR FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER PENN.
The high pressure is keeping winds on the light side, but with the cold temperatures the light northerly wind is resulting in wind chills currently in the 10 below to zero range and will continue into the mid morning hours before gradually warming.
1153 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015 EXISTING ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL LARGELY SUSTAIN A DRY/STABLE ENVIRONMENT INTO FRIDAY. RIDGING OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES THEN SLIDES SOUTH OVER THE AREA ALLOWING FOR DRIER NORTHERLY AIR TO TAKE OVER THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. RECORD LOWS FOR FEB 27 DETROIT AREA: -4 (1934) FLINT AREA: -14 (1994) SAGINAW: -8 (1934) EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE (1040+ MB) OVER CENTRAL CANADA EXTENDING SOUTH INTO THE PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH SLIDING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT.
402 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015 CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND AND TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL. HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. ALLOWING DRIER AIR TO ERODE THE LOWER CLOUDS FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING THE LOWER CLOUDS DISSIPATING FROM THE NORTHWEST AND EXPECT SKIES TO PARTIALLY CLEAR DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS IN THE WESTERN MIDLANDS BUT A BAND OF CIRRUS CLOUDS FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO BLANKET THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. BROAD CYCLONIC 500MB FLOW BECOMES GENERALLY ZONAL TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH DRY HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION AND PWAT VALUES AROUND A THIRD OF AN INCH.
DEWPOINTS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT RANGE FROM THE MID 50S ACROSS THE GULF COAST TO THE LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS THE ATLANTIC COAST WITH ALL OBSERVATIONS REPORTING LIGHT NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS.
Afternoon high temperatures are expected to range from the upper 50s across the northwest to the low to mid 60s across the southeast big bend.
1120 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015 HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS ACROSS THE MISSOURI VALLEY OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION FRIDAY WITH A WEAK RETURN SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING.
/ISSUED 958 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015/ COLD FRONT OFFSHORE AND WINDS HAVE PICKED UP ACROSS THE COASTAL AREAS. TRENDS SHOWING THAT TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS NEEDED LOWERING AND HAVE EXPANDED THE NEXT TWO TIERS OF COUNTIES SOUTHWARD TO INCLUDE CONROE IN FREEZING TEMPERATURES TONIGHT.
SHORT WAVELENGTH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER SOUTHERN MAN/SOUTHERN SASK WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE TO WESTERN IA BY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE IN EASTERN MONTANA THIS AFTN WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST THROUGH SOUTH DAKOTA AND INTO IOWA TONIGHT. SKIES CLEAR TONIGHT BUT ENOUGH OF A GRADIENT ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE HIGH TO CONTINUE 5-7 KT WIND IN ERN ND/RRV WHILE EASTERN FCST AREA GOES LIGHT/VARIABLE. TONIGHT WILL SEE LOW TEMPS A BIT WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT IN MOST AREAS AS THE COLDEST 925 MB WINDS SHIFT SOUTH OF THE AREA. A BIT WARMER AGAIN ON FRIDAY WITH SUNSHINE AS WARMER 850MB/925MB AIR DROPS SOUTH.
DESPITE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS WELL OFF TO THE WEST. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE PASSES JUST TO THE SOUTH OF WI TONIGHT.
LOWER CIGS MAY RETURN TO KCKV AND KBNA EARLY THIS MORNING AND BE RIGHT AROUND THE HIGH MVFR/LOW VFR HEIGHT.
THE LOWER LAYERS REMAIN VERY DRY. WILL FOLLOW THIS MORE AGGRESSIVE TREND OVER THE MORE CONSERVATIVE MOS GUIDANCES AS NAM WIND FORECASTS SUGGEST UPSTREAM TROUGHING TO THE NW WILL BRING A SLIGHT ENHANCEMENT ISENTROPIC LIFT BY 06Z. UPPER AIR ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWED A BROAD TROUGH ACROSS THE COUNTRY. AT THE SURFACE A COLD FRONT WAS MOVING THROUGH THE CWA FROM THE NORTH BRINGING ANOTHER COLD. DURING THIS PERIOD THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BECOME SHARPER OVER THE WEST COAST AND THE UPPER FLOW OVER TEXAS WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. THE COLD FRONT WILL BE SOUTH OF OUR AREA BY THE START OF THIS PERIOD WITH COLD AIR SETTLING IN. MODELS HAVE TRENDED WARMER THIS MORNING. SOME MID-LEVEL WARMING WILL MEAN FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET OVER THE NORTH. BRIDGES.
318 AM CST Fri Feb 27 2015 A very cold but dry day is on tap across central Illinois today as high pressure builds into the region.
Will keep the low clouds at KCTB into the overnight hours, but expect remaining TAF sites to be mostly clear with light winds through mid-aftn tomorrow.
THE LOWER LAYERS REMAIN VERY DRY. UPPER AIR ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWED A BROAD TROUGH ACROSS THE COUNTRY. AT THE SURFACE A COLD FRONT WAS MOVING THROUGH THE CWA FROM THE NORTH BRINGING ANOTHER COLD. DURING THIS PERIOD THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BECOME SHARPER OVER THE WEST COAST AND THE UPPER FLOW OVER TEXAS WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. THE COLD FRONT WILL BE SOUTH OF OUR AREA BY THE START OF THIS PERIOD WITH COLD AIR SETTLING IN. MODELS HAVE TRENDED WARMER THIS MORNING. SOME MID-LEVEL WARMING WILL MEAN FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET OVER THE NORTH. BRIDGES.
SNOW QUICKLY TAPERING OFF WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE RIDGES AT THIS HOUR. LEAVING ONLY THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE DWINDLING SNOW. COLDEST 850MB TEMPERATURES NEAR -22C WILL BE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS.
A LARGE SPRAWLING UPPER TROUGH HAS GOBBLED UP THE ENTIRE COUNTRY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FLORIDA. THERE IS ALSO A MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS STRUNG OUT ACROSS THE SRN GREAT LAKES. MOST OF THE COUNTRY WAS DOMINATED BY A LARGE 1038MB HIGH PRESSURE WHICH WAS CENTERED SMACK DAB IN THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY.
VISIBILITIES HAVE BEEN THE LOWEST AND SNOWFALL RATES THE HIGHEST AT CHEYENNE REALLY ALL DAY LONG. WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS IN AREAS NEAREST THE CHEYENNE RIDGE. LIFT/SNOW WILL DIMINISH SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE MID-LEVEL/H5 TROUGH FRIDAY 09-12Z.
1126 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015 LARGE AREA OF ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE STATE TONIGHT BECOMING CENTERED OVER SW TO CENTRAL IA BY 12Z FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST ON FRIDAY NIGHT WITH RETURN FLOW COMING IN OVERNIGHT.
1228 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015 LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL CONTINUE MOVING OUT TO SEA OVERNIGHT. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL CONTINUE MOVING NORTHEAST AND OUT TO SEA. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL SLIP SOUTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL MS RIVER VALLEY OVERNIGHT.
DRY COLD FRONT HAS ENTERED NW AL AND WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SE THRU THE NIGHT. SEEING SOME LIGHT FREEZING FOG DEVELOPING WITHIN THE CLOUD FREE AREAS WHERE TEMPS HAVE DROPPED A BIT QUICKER. HAVE ADDED PATCHY FREEZING FOG FOR AREAS WITHIN ABOUT 40-50 MILES ON EITHER SIDE OF I-20 THRU MIDNIGHT. THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT AND EXPECTED INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND WINDS SHOULD HELP DISSIPATE THE FOG. LOW TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LOW/MID 20S NORTHERN HALF AND UPPER 20S/LOW 30S SOUTHERN HALF. THE FOG IS AFFECTING KASN AND KANB AND WITH TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH TO NEAR THE I-20 CORRIDOR BY 08Z AND THIS SHOULD BRING AN END TO THE DENSE FOG AS NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASE TO 8-10 KNOTS.
320 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015 HIGH PRESSURE IS THE DOMINATE FEATURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS MORNING. AND SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED.
VFR conditions expected tonight with mix of clear skies and SCT-BKN high clouds as initial moisture from a low pressure system in WA moves into central/southwest MT. Cloud cover across the region will gradually increase with lowering ceilings starting late Fri morning as surface cold front moves in from Alberta.
WE HAVE DEFINITELY BEEN SEEING WARMER THAN MOS TEMPS FOR DAYTIME HIGHS. WILL CONTINUE TO GO WITH A BIT WARMER THAN MOS TEMPS ACROSS THE CWA TODAY.
COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE PUSHING SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION.
1135 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015 HIGH PRESSURE HAS SETTLED INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WINDS WILL BECOME EASTERLY THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST AND THE STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES. /ISSUED 854 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015/ HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE STATE TONIGHT. THE HIGH WILL BRING IN COLDER TEMPERATURES AND LOWS WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER 20S. THESE ARE SLOWLY ERODING FROM THE NORTHWEST AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO ARKANSAS.
SOME CI MAY WORK INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH TODAY AS MID LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO SAG SOUTHWARD BUT OVERALL SOLAR SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER INTO THE TEENS MOST AREAS.
1009 PM PST Thu Feb 26 2015 A weather system will move into the area on Friday, leading to cooler and wetter weather into the weekend. Upper low currently over the Pacific Northwest will drop south over NorCal through the weekend.
WITH TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY BELOW FREEZING. ADDED SOME PATCHY FREEZING FOG FOR EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH 06Z. A COLD FRONT ENTERING NW ALABAMA AS OF 03Z SHOULD PUSH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA BY 06Z. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S TONIGHT WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. PATCHY BLACK ICE IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT FROM A REFREEZING OF THE SNOW MELT THAT OCCURRED DURING THE DAY. STUMPF THE COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH BOTH TERMINALS. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING A FEW BREAKS IN THE LOW/MID LEVEL STRATUS DECK MOVING IN. THEN AS HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR MOVE INTO THE AREA. THE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS CLEAR OUT WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
REINFORCING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. COLD AIR ADVECTION STRATO-CU BETWEEN 1500 AND 2500 FEET WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE TERMINALS OVERNIGHT AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN. GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH WILL ALSO KEEP NORTH WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS THROUGH THE NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LVLS MARGINAL FOR INTERMITTENT LOW CLOUD REDEVELOPMENT. AND THE FACT THAT 03Z TEMPS ARE STILL RUNNING 2-3 DEGREES WARMER THAN MOS ATTM. WITH TEMPS EXPECTED TO STRUGGLE TO CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING N OF I-30 FRIDAY.
648 PM CST WED JAN 14 2015 ADDED IN SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND OCCASIONAL FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CWA AFTER RECEIVING SOME REPORTS OF ICING ON WINDSHIELDS NEAR SISSETON.
SOME AREAS OF FOG ARE STILL PLAUSIBLE OVER THE COOLER GULF WATERS AROUND AND NORTH OF DRY TORTUGAS NATIONAL PARK. WE EXPECT NUMEROUS FLUCTUATIONS IN WIND SPEED/DIRECTION THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS TWO COLD FRONTS AFFECT THE SERVICE AREA.
1015 PM EST WED JAN 14 2015 A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN CONTROL OF OUR LOCAL WEATHER THROUGH MUCH OF THURSDAY.
701 PM EST WED JAN 14 2015 WHILE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THURSDAY.
655 PM CST WED JAN 14 2015 S/W TROF WILL MOVE FROM MANITOBA TO NORTH OF LK SUPERIOR BY THURSDAY MORNING. A NARROW WARM SECTOR WILL ADVECT EASTWARD ACROSS MUCH OF THE DULUTH CWA OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL ACT TO WARM THE LOWER LEVELS RATHER SIGNIFICANTLY FROM WHAT THEY WERE OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. BUT NOT BEFORE TEMPS ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR MAKE A RUN AT FREEZING ON THURSDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT.
ANY LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVED A QUICK BURST OF SNOW/SLEET TODAY WILL EXPERIENCE REFREEZING TONIGHT LIKELY RESULTING IN SLICK SPOTS. WITH ONLY BRIEF CAA EXPECTED AS A WEAK COLD FRONT IMPACTS THE REGION SAT NIGHT/SUN AM.
LOWS WILL CONTINUE TO BE WELL BELOW NORMAL BUT SHOULD BE WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT WITH MID SINGLE DIGITS IN THE NORTH AND AROUND 20 IN THE SOUTH. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH NORTH OF THE AREA AT THE SAME TIME.
DID ALSO GET A REPORT OF FREEZING RAIN ON THE BACK EDGE OF THIS PRECIP. WHILE MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THERMAL PROFILES GENERALLY BELOW FREEZING AT 00Z. WARMER AIR ALOFT IS PUSHING IN ALOFT WHICH MAY BE MORE PRONOUNCED THAN MODELS INDICATE AT THIS TIME. THIS AREA CORRESPONDS TO A NICE COMPACT PIECE OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY AND WARMER 925MB TEMPS. THESE WARMER TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST LEADING TO A MILD NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THU/THU NIGHT. MODELS STILL INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR A LITTLE LIGHT PCPN ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH.
THE RAP AND 00 UTC NAM SOUNDINGS AT MINOT SUGGEST FOR THURSDAY THAT PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE COULD BE POSSIBLE WITH LOW LEVEL SATURATION WARMER THAN -10C AND FEW ICE CRYSTALS ENTERING THE LAYER FROM ABOVE. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST.
752 PM EST WED JAN 14 2015 A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN CONTROL OF OUR LOCAL WEATHER THROUGH MUCH OF THURSDAY.
LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WERE OBSERVED IN THE LOWER LEVELS UP TO ABOUT 850 MB. /ISSUED 330 PM CST WED JAN 14 2015/ WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO EXTEND FROM THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES INTO TEXAS. MOISTURE IN THE LOWEST 2500 FEET OF THE ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO BE TRAPPED UNDER AN INVERSION WHICH HAS RESULTED IN A CONTINUING LAYER OF LOW CLOUDS. THE LOW CLOUD DECK HAS REALLY CUT OFF ANY WARMING TODAY WITH MOST REPORTING STATIONS NOT HAVING MUCH MORE THAN A 5-8 DEGREE DIURNAL RANGE.
Not expecting sleet to last more than an hour or two as atmosphere in the lower levels will continue to quickly saturate. We could see some sleet pellets at the onset due to a thin layer of dry air in the low levels, but this should be short-lived.
THE LOW CLOUDS THAT WERE IN PLACE MOST OF THE DAY ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA HAVE PUSHED BACK INTO THOSE AREAS THAT SAW A LITTLE BIT OF SUN THIS AFTERNOON. AFTERNOON HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW 70S.
COLD TEMPS ALOFT AND FORECAST SURFACE WET BULB TEMPS AT FREEZING OR BELOW MAY NOT ALLOW A COMPLETE SWITCH TO RAIN. DESPITE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. WITH BELOW FREEZING TEMPS. THIS LED TO A MIXTURE OF FREEZING DRIZZLE. FREEZING DRIZZLE AND FOG MAY CONTINUE ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PORTION OF THE STATE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING CLOUDS BREAKING UP ACROSS THE CWA LATE THIS EVENING IN THE LOW LEVELS. AND WITH TEMPS BELOW FREEZING IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS. SURFACE TEMPS WILL START OUT JUST BELOW FREEZING.
936 PM EST WED JAN 14 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN LAKES TOMORROW DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA.
As this s/w approaches, it appears the ULJ, mid level trof and frontogenetic forcing phase to help enhance precip across srn MO into srn IL. With this fast moving system and relatively warmer temps, have used a 13 to 1 LSR. Otherwise, have trended temps twd the cooler guidance across the nrn third of the CWA where there brief clearing shud help temps drop quickly. Have trended twd warmer guidance across srn portions where the approaching system will help keep temps up. Am a little concerned with keeping PoPs dry with such a strong trof progd. Trends seem to be twd a deeper, stronger trof with more moisture becoming available.
BUT EXPECT ABOVE FREEZING BETWEEN 3 AND 9 KFT. /ISSUED 349 PM CST WED JAN 14 2015/ UPPER TROF CURRENTLY OVER THE WRN U. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS THE TROF APPROACHES. LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY HOLD TEMPS UP ABOVE FREEZING AND ABOVE GUIDANCE NUMBERS. SO THERE SHOULD NOT BE ANY ISSUE WITH FROZEN/FREEZING PRECIP.
954 PM EST WED JAN 14 2015 WHILE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THURSDAY.
COLD WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT.
A WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION PATTERN WILL ALLOW LOWS TO DIP DOWN AROUND THE FREEZING MARK FOR MUCH OF NORTH GA TONIGHT.
WHILE A FEW SPARSE SHOWERS WERE NOTED WELL OFFSHORE OF FLAGLER BEACH IN THE VICINITY OF THE TROUGH AXIS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL RELAX TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WEAKENS OFFSHORE OF THE FLORIDA SOUTHEAST COAST. WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DRIFTS SOUTHWARD OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.