Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
20z surface analysis had low near CWEQ with warm front into eastern NE and trough into south central MT. Chunk of AC/CI on front side of ridge exiting the CWA with some CU under it within well-mixed boundary layer across southeast MT/southwest ND/northwest SD. Should be an uptick in winds with trough before decoupling starts after 00z, so will keep current headlines intact. Thermal ridge expands into the area, so expect the usual warmer ring around the Black Hills for lows given downslope component to low level flow. Sunday night, upper trough moves through with meager moisture and forcing. A few showers may occur with a trend to snow showers over the higher Black Hills.
618 PM MST Sat Mar 12 2022 Evening update (6pm): Blended the latest updated model agreement for temperatures and precipitation especially for tomorrow's low pressure system and banded precip event from Washington and Idaho.
High pressure will settle over the region this evening, where the area will see good radiational cooling. Models were in good agreement about the movement of the high and the timing, but thinking cooling may be delayed slightly because winds may not calm until dark. Dewpoints tomorrow are expected to mix out into the lower 20s and teens again, so RH values will be low.
434 PM MST Sat Mar 12 2022 A ridge of high pressure sits squarely over the Great Basin, its axis running from the four corners northwestward to northern Idaho. A few clouds continue to spill over the ridge in the northern mountains of Colorado, while the rest of the region sits under blue skies and light winds. Southeast Utah will inch towards 60 degrees ahead of this front and the low valleys of western Colorado will see middle 50's. A modest jetstreak digging southward into Utah will help enhance the troughing late Sunday evening.
844 PM EST Sat Mar 12 2022 A brief shot of very cold air will push into the region for tonight before a fast moving upper level disturbance and surface warm front brings a period of snow and a fresh light accumulation across Central and Northern PA.
657 PM EST Sat Mar 12 2022 Late season Arctic high pressure will build across and offshore the Carolinas through the weekend. Strong subsidence and continued CAA in the wake of the upper trough will lead to west to east clearing through the early evening and perhaps a second surge/peak of stronger wind gusts.
530 PM CST Sat Mar 12 2022 (This evening through Sunday) The gradual warming we saw today with temperatures reaching into the mid to upper 50s, will translate into slightly warmer overnight lows tonight in the mid 20s to mid 30s.
With a snow pack in place and temps at or just above freezing, accumulations of an inch or less are possible. High temperatures will rebound as warm advection returns, with values in the low 30s to low 40s. Temperatures are expected to increase through Monday as high pressure builds in response to a developing trough over the Great Plains.
435 AM EDT Sun Mar 13 2022 08Z sfc analysis shows high pressure over eastern Kentucky and this has kept the skies clear and winds light - perfect conditions for radiational cooling. As a result, combined with the fresh snowfall, the valleys have really dropped off to the single digits and near zero in some extreme cases while the light southwest winds on the ridges have kept them warmer - in the mid and upper teens.
While the bulk of the upper level energy holds well south, west-east running 850 mb warm air advective band associated with the trough runs across the upper mississippi river valley overnight sun through mon. QG convergence weaker and confined to the lower layers.
330 AM CDT Sun Mar 13 2022 A trough of low pressure aloft will bring a mid level wave into the area today, which will mainly affect temperatures and winds. The incoming wave will cause winds to turn to a more easterly and southeasterly direction this afternoon with a warm front expected to develop. South of the warm front temperatures will likely climb into the lower and middle 60s while near the warmer front close to I-90 highs will be closer to 50 to 55, likely a little lower where the higher snow cover still exists. Near highway 14 highs will likely get stuck in the lower to mid 40s.
1020 PM CST Sat Mar 12 2022 (The rest of tonight) South winds keeping temps considerably warmer tonight, one exception being a few sheltered valleys in SE OK.
Models continue to speed up the progression of the upper level trough that is driving this system. - Milder weather through the upcoming week - The clipper will lift out this evening and the warm southwesterly flow will continue as a negatively tilted high allows for milder and warmer weather to propagate into the area.
850 PM CST Sat Mar 12 2022 Warm front has recently moved through the James River valley with winds having switched to the northwest. Upper ridging builds in a bit more on Sunday with lighter southeast winds in place ahead of an approaching low pressure system. Best chances for accumulating precipitation Sunday night will be along the tight thermal gradient north of the low. Freezing rain/freezing drizzle along the warm nose on the Coteau is less of a concern but may mix in with the snow. I beefed up the snow/freezing precip chances up a bit for the far eastern zones for Monday morning. Otherwise the pattern shows a windy (at times)and warmer trend, typical of March. Overall weak ridging with mild pacific air streaming into the northern plains will be the rule.
Surface ridging draped along the TX coast is set to pull away today ahead of breezier SE winds with modified Gulf moisture. Kept some 20 PoPs over the waters and this theme continues through Monday as a developing upper low descends over the Red River. 850mb winds veer more SW in response to this trough and deeper westerly flow aloft, so rain chances look to dwindle over the waters late in the day before a front arrives beyond this period.
The forecast is generally on track with most locations having fallen to near or below freezing as of this near term forecast update. /EC/ Prior discussion below: High pressure will settle over the region this evening, where the area will see good radiational cooling. Models were in good agreement about the movement of the high and the timing, but thinking cooling may be delayed slightly because winds may not calm until dark. Dewpoints tomorrow are expected to mix out into the lower 20s and teens again, so RH values will be low.
Daily Record Low Minimum Temperatures Date Chattanooga Knoxville Tri-Cities Oak Ridge 03-13 20(1932) 16(1998) 6(1960) 17(1998) JB 06Z TAF DISCUSSION. Dry airmass and surface ridging will produce clear sky.
930 PM PST Sat Mar 12 2022 A trough of low pressure moving inland across California Sunday will bring cooling west of the mountains as onshore flow increases and the marine layer deepens. Monday will be warmer with lighter winds.
These downsloping winds combined with plentiful sunshine will allow afternoon high temperatures to jump about 10 degrees over what was observed yesterday with most locations peaking in the lower 70's. Gusty winds will continue overnight as stronger winds from the low level jet will be mixed to the surface keeping overnight temperatures on the mild side with temperatures in the 30's to lower 40's. /WCI A positively tilted upper trough situated over the South Plains region will push a cold front through the area by early tomorrow afternoon and will be accompanied by breezy northerly winds. A slight chance mention of rain showers has been added Monday afternoon as at least isolated showers look possible with decent mid and upper level moisture in place on the back side of the upper low.
341 AM CDT Sun Mar 13 2022 Water vapor satellite imagery showed the light snow producing short- wave trough continuing on its eastward track beginning to exit the region. In the wake of this system, warmer conditions are ushered into the region. The models continue to show the short wave trough the breaks off from the system deepening over the Lower Plains will be moving across the Upper Midwest into the Great Lakes during the day Monday.
Temperatures are expected to quickly climb today, but it still won't be until about mid-morning before the area gets above freezing. These winds plus the warmer temperatures could quickly spread any fires that are started, but with humidities staying above 40 percent today, we shouldn't see as many fire issues as there were a little over a week ago, but still be cautious with any open flames today.
416 AM EDT Sun Mar 13 2022 Light snow is likely near and north of the Michigan border early today as a low pressure system tracks well to the north of the area.
Upper height recovery through Monday continues the trend toward moderating temperatures, as daybreak lows in the 30s return to the lower 60s for highs. Dew points start to move upward as well, as a Low pressure system shoots out of the Desert Southwest across Texas, and moisture streams north ahead of it.
With early morning temps below freezing, accumulations around an inch are possible. Temperatures are expected to increase through Monday as high pressure builds in response to a developing trough over the Great Plains.
High pressure aloft and warm, dry weather in our CWA will move off to the east this evening as a Pacific upper low approaches the Oregon coast. The low will weaken to an open trough as it passes through our CWA Sunday. This system will bring rain, snow, gusty southwest winds, and cooler temps to our CWA. The upper trough will exit Sunday night with clearing skies, colder temps, and diminishing winds overnight. That storm will be wetter than the first, but also warmer with snow level 6000-7500 feet as pcpn begins.
Dangerous wind chills across the higher elevations of the far east Tennessee Mountains and southwest Virginia. Temperatures in the single digits and brisk northwest winds across the higher elevations combine to produce dangerous wind chills between 5 and 15 degrees below zero. A wind chill advisory remains in effect across the higher elevations for the far east Tennessee Mountains and southwest Virginia. The ridges and higher terrain will experience some mixing of the southerly winds while the sheltered valleys will decouple.
150 AM CST Sun Mar 13 2022 Much warmer conditions are on tap the next several days, with highs this week frequently in the 50s and 60s. Lingering snow cover may hold down high temperatures a bit, but it should erode quickly, and highs in the lower to mid 50s are on tap today. Trailing end of a cold front just to our north will get hung up tonight, keeping us in milder overnight lows in the 30s. Upper low currently just off the Washington/Oregon coast will open up as it drops southeast early this week, with the flow becoming more split over the central U.
- Lake effect snow showers taper off by this evening Northwest flow lake effect snow showers will taper off and end this evening as surface ridging moves in with drying and subsidence.
327 AM EDT Sun Mar 13 2022 A warm front will lift northeast across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley today. This will result in breezy to windy conditions along with warmer temperatures. Meanwhile, a surface warm front will lift northeast across our region. This will bring breezy to windy conditions with the highest winds occurring from mid morning hours into the mid afternoon hours. Highs will range from the lower 40s northeast to near 50 southwest. Weak high pressure is expected to move into the Ohio Valley. Overnight lows will fall into the upper 20s to the lower 30s. On Monday, mid level s/wv ridging will be in place. Highs will range from the upper 50s to the lower 60s.
We still have some differences in the lower resolution models in the track of this system, but the high resolution models are depicting a narrower band of snow that is farther north than the lower resolution solutions. There are some indications of a stronger, more phased longwave trough which moves across later in the week, but the other models are less phased and keep the features weaker. Ceilings will be MVFR through the night with improvement to VFR from west to east late tonight into Sunday morning as high pressure moves in. Winds will turn north to northeast at 10 knots or less, and become somewhat variable during the day as a ridge of high pressure moves across the area.
1055 PM EST Sat Mar 12 2022 A warm front will lift north across the Ohio Valley through the day on Sunday. This will lead to breezy conditions on Sunday along with a warmer temperatures. Sharp mid level trof over the Eastern Great Lakes to continue shifting off the east. Winds will back southwest overnight with the passage of the ridge axis. Lows Sunday night will be in the low to mid 30s. Quiet weather continues Monday night with lows in the lower 40s with southwesterly flow.
Current temperatures are in the lower to mid 30s over many inland locations while areas along the immediate coast are in the upper 30s. As a result, temperatures will plummet into the lower to mid 20s inland with upper 20s to around 30 degrees at the coast. Given temperatures will be sub-freezing for nearly 12 hours, a Freeze Warning also remains in effect for the entire area through 9am CDT Sunday morning. One thing to note is the extremely subsident airmass that will remain in place across the region as the high pressure dominates.
At the surface, strong high pressure over the southeast and a low pressure moving across the upper midwest will bring a roughly 8 to 10 mb pressure gradient across the Ohio and Tennessee valleys, which will drive south to southwest winds today with gusts as high as 35 mph today. A warm front and associated baroclinic zone will bring strong warm air advection to the region today as well, leading to high temperatures returning into the upper 40s to lower 50s, which is closer to average but still on the cool side of normal for mid March. Monday looks to be a pleasant day as we sit between high pressure off the East Coast and low pressure over the southern Plains. That Plains low will sink southeastward to the Gulf Coast mid-week as a positively-tilted upper trough digs into the lower Mississippi Valley.
The models are a little slower with the arrival of a strong cold front tonight. The well mixed short term model blend suggested lows near freezing tonight and highs mostly in the 40s Monday. Accumulations in the model are only shown across Pine Ridge- likely the result of Black hills convergence.
The SW LLJ is cranking through the night which has kept our surface winds slightly elevated as the low layer air has not quite decoupled from the surface. This low is expected to move very slowly across the OK panhandle. As the low deepens, the LLJ enhances drawing even more warm air into our area. As the low skirts by during the day Monday, it cuts of this warm air channel thus flattening our temperature trend keeping highs near 60F.
06Z TAFs Light south winds and clear skies will occur tonight with high pressure ridge over the coastal waters. Freezing temperatures anticipated again for tonight over the northern tier of counties, supported by the HREF/SREF probabilities, the raw NBM output, and the likelihood of strong radiational cooling from a very dry atmospheric column, light wind, and mostly clear skies, and very low dew points. Although dew points over the entire CWA are well below freezing, the GFS/NAM predict a gradual increase in PWAT values/moistening of the atmospheric column from south to north, yet still a very dry vertical column over the northern tier of counties.
357 AM CDT Sun Mar 13 2022 Today and Tonight: Quite the chilly morning across the forecast area, as lows currently reside in the low and middle 20s areawide. The combination of weak ridging aloft building east through the region today, along with high pressure at the surface building through, quiet conditions will exist across the CWA today into tonight.
/19/ The forecast is generally on track with most locations having fallen to near or below freezing as of this near term forecast update. /EC/ Prior discussion below: High pressure will settle over the region this evening, where the area will see good radiational cooling. Models were in good agreement about the movement of the high and the timing, but thinking cooling may be delayed slightly because winds may not calm until dark. Dewpoints tomorrow are expected to mix out into the lower 20s and teens again, so RH values will be low.
Any snow will quickly melt as afternoon highs will range from the middle 40s in south central Michigan to the lower 50s into west central Indiana. Backing/ramping 925mb flow in advance of clipper system to effectively supplant low level thermal trough.
Upper trough is currently making landfall along the WA/OR coast. As the trough advances eastward this morning, we should see precip begin across the Central Mountains by 6am and quickly expand into the Eastern Highlands. Strong downslope flow along the I-86 corridor between Pocatello and Burley is keeping things warm and dry, though winds will shift southwesterly later this morning with the passage of the surface cold front.
1244 AM EST Sun Mar 13 2022 A warm front will lift north across the Ohio Valley through the day on Sunday. This will lead to breezy conditions on Sunday along with a warmer temperatures. Sharp mid level trof over the Eastern Great Lakes to continue shifting off the east. Winds will back southwest overnight with the passage of the ridge axis. Lows Sunday night will be in the low to mid 30s. Quiet weather continues Monday night with lows in the lower 40s with southwesterly flow.
Warm front has recently moved through the James River valley with winds having switched to the northwest. Upper ridging builds in a bit more on Sunday with lighter southeast winds in place ahead of an approaching low pressure system. Best chances for accumulating precipitation Sunday night will be along the tight thermal gradient north of the low. Freezing rain/freezing drizzle along the warm nose on the Coteau is less of a concern but may mix in with the snow. I beefed up the snow/freezing precip chances up a bit for the far eastern zones for Monday morning. Otherwise the pattern shows a windy (at times)and warmer trend, typical of March. Overall weak ridging with mild pacific air streaming into the northern plains will be the rule.
Surface winds were out of the south and west, and started to bring in warmer and more moist air. Nonetheless, high pressure will build in from the west through the period. Lows are expected to be above freezing tonight across the area. Dry and warmer conditions will be seen across the area on Monday as a weak cold front approaches the area.
1040 PM EST Sat Mar 12 2022 A brief shot of very cold air will push into the region for tonight before a fast moving upper level disturbance and surface warm front brings a period of snow and a fresh light accumulation across Central and Northern PA.
As of 08z, temperatures have fallen into the lower 20s in most locations and will eventually bottom out in the mid to upper Teens just before daybreak. High pressure will maintain the clear sky and dry weather over the area today as it shifts just east of the region. Combined with plentiful sunshine, air mass modification will take place and allow temperatures to recover quite nicely into the low to mid 50s by this afternoon. Our highs today will run about 20 degrees warmer than yesterday -- a welcome change to say the least. The end result will be a much milder night (By 15+ degrees) and an even warmer day on Monday as highs return to the 60s. Meanwhile, an upper-trough will eject from the Four Corners region onto the Southern Plains and eventually the lower Mississippi Valley by Monday evening.
1011 PM CST Sat Mar 12 2022 (This evening through Sunday) The gradual warming we saw today with temperatures reaching into the mid to upper 50s, will translate into slightly warmer overnight lows tonight in the mid 20s to mid 30s.
(The rest of tonight) South winds keeping temps considerably warmer tonight, one exception being a few sheltered valleys in SE OK.
SHORT TERM (Now through Monday): High pressure at the surface and a zonal 500 mb flow overhead will be the dominant weather features for the BRO CWFA during this period.
/issued 330 AM CDT Sun Mar 13 2022/ SHORT TERM (Now through Monday): High pressure at the surface and a zonal 500 mb flow overhead will be the dominant weather features for the BRO CWFA during this period.
629 AM EDT Sun Mar 13 2022 A warm front will lift northeast across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley today. This will result in breezy to windy conditions along with warmer temperatures. Meanwhile, a surface warm front will lift northeast across our region. This will bring breezy to windy conditions with the highest winds occurring from mid morning hours into the mid afternoon hours. Highs will range from the lower 40s northeast to near 50 southwest. Weak high pressure is expected to move into the Ohio Valley. Overnight lows will fall into the upper 20s to the lower 30s. On Monday, mid level s/wv ridging will be in place. Highs will range from the upper 50s to the lower 60s.
Dialed back some of the higher amounts but pushed up the SLRs due to the cold air moving through overnight. A general 2-4 inches seem plausible with higher amounts under snow bands and the high peaks in the 4-6 inch range. Cooler conditions will move in behind this system though it looks like drier air and sun should help overcome much of this by the afternoon with highs only slight cooler than today.
/issued 418 AM CDT Sun Mar 13 2022/ A much warmer day is expected across the Mid South as temperatures should warm well into the 50s.
An upper level low landing on the Pacific Northwest Coast this morning will deamplify into an open wave while quickly crossing the mountain west through the day. The 00Z suite of CAMs generally follows a line from Williston to Jamestown, but the highest QPF probabilities in both the GEFS and ECMWF ensemble are shifted slightly to the south. Lastly, there is a non-zero, but still very low potential for some light freezing drizzle in southwest North Dakota behind the departing snow. By Monday afternoon, a warm front will begin pushing into the state from the west.
Water vapor satellite imagery showed the light snow producing short- wave trough continuing on its eastward track beginning to exit the region. In the wake of this system, warmer conditions are ushered into the region. The models continue to show the short wave trough the breaks off from the system deepening over the Lower Plains will be moving across the Upper Midwest into the Great Lakes during the day Monday.
/19/ Today and Tonight: Quite the chilly morning across the forecast area, as lows currently reside in the low and middle 20s areawide. The combination of weak ridging aloft building east through the region today, along with high pressure at the surface building through, quiet conditions will exist across the CWA today into tonight.
341 AM PDT Sun Mar 13 2022 A trough passing to our north today will bring windy conditions through and below the mountain passes in Kern County.
Warmer weather over the last 24 hours has melted a lot of the snow over the northern counties, and the NAM model is probably overcompensating the leftover snow resulting in too cool of highs for This afternoon. The synoptic setup has an upper wave approaching late Sunday evening with a cold front driving though the westernmost counties by around midnight - and clearing the southeastern counties by around the post sunrise hours.
Today Through Monday Night High pressure will continue to control the weather through much of the short term period.
Sunday offers scattered clouds and slightly cooler temperatures.
1022 AM EDT Sun Mar 13 2022 A warm front will lift northeast across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley today. This will result in breezy to windy conditions along with warmer temperatures. Winds will also remain gusty in the 30-40 mph range through early to mid afternoon, until the low level jet begins to move off to the east. Weak high pressure is expected to move into the Ohio Valley. Overnight lows will fall into the upper 20s to the lower 30s. On Monday, mid level s/wv ridging will be in place. Highs will range from the upper 50s to the lower 60s.