Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
The low clouds will burn off after 15Z Friday, and expect VFR conditions at all the terminals during the afternoon and evening. the low ceilings will break up after 15Z, and then VFR Friday afternoon and evening. /ISSUED 358 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2015/ (Tonight and Friday) Upper level high pressure was building in from the east, with even cumulus clouds being suppressed this afternoon.
807 PM EDT THU JUL 9 2015 A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT.
A FRONT IN SOUTHERN OHIO WILL DRIFT SLOWLY NORTH TODAY WHILE A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST ALONG THE FRONT.
COLD FRONT NEARING NW CWA AT 17Z. THEN ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE AGAIN AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS ON WEDNESDAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NORTH CENTRAL WV THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WITH UPPER RIDGE OF TO OUR SE. PRETTY MUCH THE SAME STORY TOMORROW AS THE WARM FRONT DRIFTS BACK NORTH. THE RIDGING THAT HAS PUMPED IN LOTS OF MOISTURE AND RIPPLES IN THE UPPER LEVELS CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THIS FORECAST PERIOD. A COLD FRONT HAS STALLED ACROSS NORTHERN WV AND SOUTHEAST OHIO.
607 AM EDT WED JUN 17 2015 HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION WILL KEEP PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS CENTRAL PA TODAY.
EAST-WEST ORIENTED WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE IS ALIGNED ACROSS THE SUNSHINE STATE.
AFTER 12Z THE 4KM WRF AND A CONSENSUS OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SHOWED FEEDER BANDS POSSIBLE FOR MOST OF THE DAY OVER THE AVIATION SITES. GAGE REPORTS FROM THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER AUTHORITY SHOW SOME 5-6 INCH RAINFALL TOTALS OVER MATAGORDA AND WHARTON COUNTY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS.
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST U. THE SHIFT IN THE RIDGE MAY ALLOW A LITTLE ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO FILTER IN AND COULD SEE A MINOR UP TICK IN AFTERNOON CONVECTION.
244 AM EDT WED JUN 17 2015 THE CENTER OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN ACROSS OUR REGION TODAY. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO LEADING TO NOT QUITE AS HOT TEMPERATURES. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE REGION. A VERY SLIGHT WEAKENING AND SOUTHWARD SHIFT OF THE UPPER RIDGE AS A RESULT OF UPPER ENERGY RIDING EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL APPS COULD POSSIBLY ALLOW ANY CONVECTION AND ASSOCIATED BOUNDARIES OR REMNANTS TO AFFECT THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING OR EARLY TONIGHT. MODELS INDICATE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AND SHIFT SLOWLY TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.
H5 HIGH PRESSURE SITS OVER THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST THE WEEKEND. THE FREEZING LEVEL LOOKS TO BE AROUND 14.
WILL GO WITH SMALL POPS ACROSS THE INTERIOR IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE RIDGE POSITION SUGGESTS LATE DAY BOUNDARY COLLISIONS OCCURRING THERE. MAX TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO NUDGE UP WITH SOME INTERIOR TEMPS REACHING 96-97 DEGREES AND HEAT INDICES IN THE LOW ONE HUNDREDS. LITTLE CHANGE OF DEEP LAYER RIDGE WITH HOT TEMPERATURES PERSISTING. THIS WILL LEAD TO AFTERNOON HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOW 90S ALONG THE COAST TO MID 90S INLAND WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES UP TO 100- 104 DEGREES. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY RANGE IN THE LOW-MID 70S. THIS ACTS TO SLIGHTLY WEAKEN AND SHIFT SOUTHWARD THE DEEP LAYER RIDGE IN PLACE.
THERE WAS SOME FOG POTENTIAL AS INDICATED BY NAM AND LESSER EXTENT THE RAP BUT APPEARS NAM WAS WAY OVERDONE WITH MOISTURE THIS AM AS DEWPOINTS ARE SUPPOSED TO BE IN THE LOWER 60S NOW AND THROUGH THE DAY. EVEN LATEST HRRR ONLY HAS ISOLATED COVERAGE OF STORMS OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OF PALMER DIVIDE AND CYS RIDGE. ALSO AREA WILL BE UNDER WEAK RIDGING ALOFT WITH WEAK SUBSIDENCE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS STILL ON TRACK THURSDAY AND BEYOND WITH A STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDING TO OUR WEST. NEARLY STATIONARY UPPER RIDGE/HEAT DOME TO ENVELOP COLORADO AND THE SOUTHWEST U.
316 AM EDT WED JUN 17 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST AND CREST ACROSS THE AREA LATE TODAY BEFORE SLIDING OFFSHORE TONIGHT.
THIS AFTERNOON A STRONG MIDLEVEL TROUGH PROPAGATING EAST- SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA WILL PUSH A SURFACE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. FORECAST MODELS INDICATE SOME REMNANT SHOWERS LEFT OVER FROM CONVECTION ALONG THE COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
150 AM CDT WED JUN 17 2015 WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER RIDGE ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE SERN U.
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN IA INTO FAR NW KS. CURRENT FLOOD WATCH LOOKS ON TRACK WITH THE HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER FAR SE KS WITH LABETTE AND MONTGOMERY COUNTIES HAVING THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE THE HIGHER RAINFALL TOTALS AND POTENTIAL FLOODING. CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KS WILL HAVE HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S. BOTH MODELS ARE NOT QUITE AS ROBUST IN PUSHING A COLD FRONT SOUTH COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS. THE LOW CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO SCATTER OUT DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS.
GENERALLY USING A BLEND OF GUIDANCE BUT GOING ON THE LOW SIDE FOR HIGHS TO THE EAST TODAY AND HIGHER WEST TODAY. THEN GOING ON THE COOLER SIDE FOR THURSDAY AS STILL SHOULD BE RAIN AND CLOUDS AROUND.
647 AM EDT WED JUN 17 2015 HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA THIS MORNING WILL MOVE EAST BY TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR REGION ON THURSDAY.
350 AM EDT WED JUN 17 2015 HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION WILL KEEP PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS CENTRAL PA TODAY.
MEAN LAYER HIGH PRESSURE OVER S GA WILL GRADUALLY BEGIN TO SHIFT ESE OF THE FL PENINSULA OVER THE NEXT 2 DAYS. YESTERDAY MIN DEW PTS FELL INTO THE LOW/MID 60S. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE REGION WILL SLOWLY BREAK DOWN OVER THE WEEKEND AND SLIDE TO THE SOUTH.
148 AM EDT WED JUN 17 2015 A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THIS EVENING. FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING SEASONABLE WEATHER THURSDAY PRIOR TO A COLD FRONT AND SOME SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY THURSDAY NIGHT.
SO DESPITE SOUTHERLY FLOW UP INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY THROUGH THE SHORT TERM MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL NOT BE GREAT OWING TO SUBSIDENCE AND RECIRCULATION OF DRYISH AIR TIED TO THE SUBTROPICAL BERMUDA HIGH CENTER TO OUR EAST. STILL LOOKS LIKE IN THE AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING TODAY AND TOMORROW IT WILL BE HARD TO COMPLETELY RULE OUT A SHOWER OR STORM BUT POPS KEPT IN THE LOW 10 TO 20 PERCENT RANGE.
156 AM EDT WED JUN 17 2015 THE CENTER OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SLIP SOUTH FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. BUT WILL CONTINUE TO STAY CLOSER TO THE SLIGHTLY WARMER MAV NUMBERS FOR OVERNIGHT MINS. LITTLE CHANGE AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS CENTERED OVER OUR REGION WEDNESDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH INTO THE MID- ATLANTIC REGION.
THE LOW CLOUDS DID DISSIPATE BY EARLY EVENING. THE LOWER CEILINGS INDICATE THAT THE MARINE LAYER IS MORE SHALLOW THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS SO WE CAN EXPECT IMPROVEMENT IN AVIATION CONDITIONS EARLIER IN THE DAY.
TODAY IS A WELCOME BREAK IN THE ACTION WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL.
A subtle ridge of high pressure moves back over the area tonight into Thursday causing conditions to dry.
126 AM EDT WED JUN 17 2015 DRIER AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE COMMONWEALTH FOR TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH OF THE STATE THIS EVENING. FOLLOWED BY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AND FAIR WEATHER TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT MCLEAR SKIES TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER NW FLOW OVERSPREADS THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES. A WEAK SECONDARY COLD FRONT OVR UPSTATE NY MAY PRODUCE A BIT OF CLOUDINESS LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE MTNS N OF KIPT AS IT SETTLES SOUTH TOWARD THE PA BORDER. MIN TEMPS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE LOW 50S OVR THE NW MTNS TO THE LOW 60S ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. AND S/WV ENERGY MOVING THRU THE SRN EDGE OF THE WESTERLIES ALONG NRN PERIPHERY OF HOT RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.
A WEAK QUASI-STATIONARY 500 MILLIBAR TROUGH CONTINUES TO BE SITUATED FROM OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS INTO CENTRAL TEXAS. THE REMAINS OF TROPICAL STORM BILL HAVE BEEN TRACKING NORTHWARD THROUGH TEXAS OVERNIGHT JUST TO THE EAST OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS. HAVE RAISED MAX TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES TODAY ACROSS THE BOARD AS WARMER THE COLUMN CONTINUES TO WARM AND DEEP MIXING IS EXPECTED TODAY.
STRONG SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC THIS MORNING NEAR LOS ANGELES, AND WILL INTENSIFY AND EXPAND OVER THE SOUTHWEST U. NEVADA'S FORECAST WILL BE SIMPLE ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS HIGH, WITH SUNNY HOT DRY AFTERNOONS. VERY WEAK INSTABILITY AND MEAGER MOISTURE WILL YIELD SOME AFTERNOON CUMULUS BUILDUPS ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF EASTERN NEVADA, BOTH TODAY AND THURSDAY. THE HOTTEST TEMPERATURES SO FAR THIS YEAR, IN THE LOW TO MID 90S, WILL COMBINE WITH A DRY AIRMASS TO LOWER MIN RH TO 4-8%.
238 AM MST WED JUN 17 2015 HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AT LEAST INTO THIS WEEKEND AS HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS REACH INTO THE 110-115 DEGREE RANGE EACH DAY. THE SEASONABLY STRONG PACIFIC UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH REGIONAL 500MB HEIGHTS SLOWLY CLIMBING TO AROUND 595DM FOR THIS WEEKEND.
STRONGER WIND GUSTS TO 30-35 MPH ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY IN THE LEE OF THE SIERRA AND OUT INTO FAR WESTERN NEVADA AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHES THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THEN APPROACHES THE REGION.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 17/00Z UPPER-AIR PLOTS SHOW THE RIDGE TO OUR WEST OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WITH THE RIDGE AXIS NOSING INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN ARIZONA. 7 INCHES BY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO PUSH IN FROM THE WEST TODAY. OUR NEXT PROBLEM OF THE DAY CONTINUES TO BE THE VERY HOT TEMPERATURES THAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY TO OUR WEST EVENTUALLY SHIFTS TO OVERHEAD AND WE HEAT UP EVEN MORE.
SOUTH TEXAS REMAINS IN WEAK TROUGHING BETWEEN STRONGER RIDGES TO THE WEST AND EAST.
WITH THE SHOWERS ENDING INTO WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN THROUGH 06Z AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND NORTHERN MINNESOTA.
431 AM EDT WED JUN 17 2015 HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA THIS MORNING WILL MOVE EAST BY TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR REGION ON THURSDAY.
127 AM EDT WED JUN 17 2015 HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTH TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE EAST OF NEW ENGLAND ON THURSDAY WILL KEEP AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT TO THE SOUTH.
129 AM EDT WED JUN 17 2015 RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION LATER TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN CENTRAL INDIANA. THE DRY FORECAST WILL COME TO AN END LATER TONIGHT AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND DEEPER MOISTURE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE FLOODING TRIES TO BUCKLE BACK NORTH SOMEWHAT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG THE FRONT. ACTIVE PATTERN WITH PERIODIC CHANCES FOR RAIN/STORMS WILL PERSIST INTO THIS WEEKEND AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY OSCILLATES BETWEEN THE LOWER LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF PERTURBED/NEAR ZONAL FLOW.
/ISSUED 745 PM EDT TUE JUN 16 2015/ HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED SURFACE AND ALOFT OVER THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. 12Z CYCLE OF THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS REMAIN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS TRENDS OF SLOWLY WEAKENING THE UPPER RIDGE BY THE END OF THE WEEK. /ISSUED 306 AM EDT TUE JUN 16 2015/ HOT TEMPERATURES CONTINUE INTO THE EXTENDED AS UPPER RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE. THIS WILL HELP TO WEAKEN THE UPPER RIDGE EVER SO SLIGHTLY AND BRING HIGH TEMPERATURES DOWN A FEW DEGREES LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WILL BE THE DOMINATE PATTERN THROUGH THE PERIOD.
STRONG MID AND UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. BUT A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING HOW FAR SOUTH THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE ABLE TO MOVE INTO THE PERSISTENT MID/UPR RIDGE. BOTH SUGGEST SLIGHTLY COOLER READINGS ON WEDNESDAY WITH LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES ABOUT 20M LOWER THAN TODAY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S.
604 AM EDT WED JUN 17 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST AND CREST ACROSS THE AREA LATE TODAY BEFORE SLIDING OFFSHORE TONIGHT.
POPS DECREASE EARLY TONIGHT WITH ZONAL FLOW BUT CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS WERE CONTINUED BY THURSDAY MORNING WITH THE ADVANCE AND PASSAGE OF A THURSDAY COLD FRONT.
STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGING COVERING THE SOUTHEASTERN U. WITH DAYTIME HIGHS SOARING INTO THE LOWER 90S ALONG THE COAST.
Some mid level clouds streaming from this system are moving into the Low Rolling Plains. A ridge is centered off the Southern California coast stretching east into Northern Chihuahua. With a moist airmass in place and a weak trof over West Texas there could be isolated to scattered storms. The ridge from the Pacific will build a little east bringing a dry night.
240 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015 CHALLENGE TODAY IS WHETHER OR NOT THE HIGH RES MODELS ARE ON TO SOMETHING DEVELOPING ISOLD CONVECTION OVER THE WEST 1/2 OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN A CORRIDOR OF HIGHER MOISTURE, INSTABILITY AND NO CAP.
AN EARLY MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY, EXTENDING EAST/WEST FROM THE APPALACHIANS TOWARD THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. ALOFT, WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 500 MB HEIGHTS CONTINUED TO SHOW RIDGING THROUGH THE WESTERN CONUS WITH DOWNSTREAM TROUGHING OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM IS SHOWER/STORM CHANCES MONDAY AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT THAT WILL PASS BUT STALL NEAR THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY THIS WEEK.
437 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015 SFC RIDGING REMAINS ANCHORED FROM THE MID MS VALLEY SW INTO AR AND INTO ECNTRL TX THIS MORNING. WITH THIS RIDGE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SLIDE E INTO THE MID-SOUTH REGION AND TN VALLEY AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THE RESULT WILL BE A GRADUAL VEERING OF THE LOW LEVEL WINDS TO A MORE SERLY COMPONENT ESPECIALLY BY TONIGHT AS THE RIDGE AXIS DEPARTS THE REGION.
STEERING FLOW WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTH AS THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE NUDGES NORTHWARD.
SOUTHWEST OF THIS WARM FRONT OVER THE NORTHEASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. SHOULD SUFFICIENT MOISTURE POOL ALONG THE WARM FRONT. THE TONE FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK IS FOR A FLATTENING UPPER RIDGE.
353 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TODAY. HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE MID 80S THROUGH THE HIGHWAY 14 CORRIDOR TO LOWER 90S THROUGH THE MID AND LOWER MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY. HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. THIS ALONG WITH THE COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN A COOLER NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. WITH A RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS. MIXING WILL RESULT IN DEW POINTS FALLING INTO THE LOWER 50S NORTH OF I90 WITH MID TO UPPER 50S IN THE MISSOURI VALLEY.
CHALLENGE TODAY IS WHETHER OR NOT THE HIGH RES MODELS ARE ON TO SOMETHING DEVELOPING ISOLD CONVECTION OVER THE WEST 1/2 OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN A CORRIDOR OF HIGHER MOISTURE, INSTABILITY AND NO CAP.
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TODAY BRINGING WELL ABOVE TEMPERATURES. UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING STARTS TO BREAK DOWN THIS AFTERNOON WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHING OUR AREA FROM THE SOUTH. LOOK FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY AS THE THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WITH ASSOCIATED SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE MOVES INTO SOUTHEAST IDAHO. CONTINUED TO TREND TEMPERATURES DOWNWARD BUT STAYED SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN MODEL SUGGEST.
IN THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE. THE WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE AXIS STRETCHES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA. GIVING WAY TO A RESILIENT TROUGH IN THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE TUTT HAS CARVED OUT CYCLONIC CURVATURE INTO THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE. IDENTIFYING THE PROXIMITY OF THE RIDGE AXIS.
1107 PM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015 CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. MODERATE INSTABILITY IS IN PLACE EAST OF THIS AREA WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOW 50S TO LOW 60S UNDER FAIRLY STEEP LAPSE RATES. ALL MODELS NOW INDICATE A FLATTER RIDGE COMPARED TO THE LAST FEW DAYS.
348 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015 A COLD FRONT IS HEADED DOWN OUT OF NORTH DAKOTA THIS AM AHEAD OF THE NEXT HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRIER CONDITIONS LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH TODAY BEFORE ANOTHER DISTURBANCE BRINGS MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE REGION LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT. MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS NRN VT/ERN NY INTO NRN NEW ENGLAND.
620 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015 HIGH PRESSURE HANGS ON FOR THE BALANCE OF THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES MONDAY AND THEN CROSSES MONDAY NIGHT. WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PULL THE FRONT BACK NORTH MID TO LATE WEEK. AND WARM SUNNY DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST LATE TONIGHT. COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACH MON AND THEN CROSS MON NT. NAM SHOWS BAND OF H2-H4 DIV NICELY LINE UP ALONG/AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. BLENDED IN A BIAS CORRECTED CONSENSUS RAW BLEND FOR A SLIGHTLY COOLER NT TUE NT WITH SOME CLEARING AND LIGHT FLOW BEHIND THE COLD FRONT N. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE BRINGS THE FRONT BACK INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES THE FRONT BACK TO THE SOUTH.
430 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015 HIGH PRESSURE HANGS ON FOR THE BALANCE OF THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES MONDAY AND THEN CROSSES MONDAY NIGHT. WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PULL THE FRONT BACK NORTH MID TO LATE WEEK. AND WARM SUNNY DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST LATE TONIGHT. COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACH MON AND THEN CROSS MON NT. NAM SHOWS BAND OF H2-H4 DIV NICELY LINE UP ALONG/AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. BLENDED IN A BIAS CORRECTED CONSENSUS RAW BLEND FOR A SLIGHTLY COOLER NT TUE NT WITH SOME CLEARING AND LIGHT FLOW BEHIND THE COLD FRONT N. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE BRINGS THE FRONT BACK INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES THE FRONT BACK TO THE SOUTH.
WEAK NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER AND IN THE LOW TO MID 90S.
353 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT SINKS SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
EVENING SOUNDING DATA SHOWED THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS LEAVING THE REGION UNDER A DRY NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT.
ONLY HAVE HIGHS TODAY ABOUT A DEGREE OR TWO HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY AS TEMPS ARE PRETTY STEADY ACROSS THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE.
This activity precedes a cold front which will eventually move into the CWA. Later this afternoon scattered convection expected to form along the approaching cold front from NE through IA. Lacking much forcing think convection will weaken through the evening hours as it and the cold front drop southward through the CWA. As the cold front will linger over the CWA through the day on Monday will paint slight chance PoPs over most of the region. Boundary layer winds veering to the southwest today will allow slightly hotter air to spread into the CWA so max temperatures in the low-mid 90s likely. With the cold front likely bisecting the CWA on Monday cooler and slightly drier air will reside across the northern 1/3 of the CWA while hot and humid conditions will continue over the far southern CWA.
ATTEMPTS AT SURFACE-BASED CONVECTIVE INITIATION APPEAR TO HAVE FAILED WITHIN THE WARM FRONTAL ZONE FROM NE SD INTO WRN MN THIS EVENING AFTER A COUPLE OF BRIEF STORMS TRIED TO SUSTAIN OVER NE SD. FOCUS APPEARS TO BE SHIFTING TO AREAS FARTHER NORTHWEST IN ADVANCE OF MORE SIGNIFICANT S/W TROF THAT IS DRIVING THE MAIN SURFACE COLD FRONT THAT LIES FROM JUST SOUTH OF WINNIPEG TO JUST NORTH OF MINOT ND AS OF 830 PM.
BOTH MODELS INCREASE MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH IN RESPONSE TO BROAD UPPER TROF ALONG EASTERN SEABOARD SHARPENING UP. MAIN STORY FOR THE TUE AND WED WILL BE THE HEAT AS TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN RE-DEVELOPS WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND STRENGTHENING TROUGH INLAND. CHANCE OF SHRA AND TSRA INCREASE LATE WEEK AS UPR TRF DEVELOPS TO THE W WITH WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NW THU AND STALLING NEAR THE AREA FRI INTO SAT.
LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN HIGH ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO TODAY AS WEAK 500MB INVERTED TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF MOVES INLAND ACROSS NORTHEAST MEXICO. THE WEAKNESS IN THE 500MB RIDGE ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND NORTHEAST MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH MONDAY BUT WILL MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MON AFTERNOON AS MOISTURE REMAINS HIGH ACROSS THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE CWA.
THE LONGWAVE PATTERN FEATURES RIDGING FROM NEW MEXICO TO WASHINGTON. MODELS AGREE WELL ON LARGE PICTURE OF SOUTHWEST RIDGE FLATTENING AND DRIFTING EAST AS PACIFIC LOW MOVES INTO COAST.
142 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015 A WEAK PRESSURE TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MONDAY. THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN FEATURES A RIDGE OUT WEST WITH A BROAD TROUGH FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE EAST COAST. MET MOS GUIDANCE HAS COOL BIAS OVERNIGHT MINS HAVE STAYED WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S TONIGHT. MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT SHOWING A RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL US WITH A BROAD TROUGH ALONG THE EAST COAST.
354 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT.
632 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015 THE LOCAL AREA WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE INTO MONDAY.
1120 PM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015 A RIDGE WILL RESIDE OVER THE ROCKIES THROUGH SUNDAY. MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT SHOULD COOL TO THE LOWER 60S. MAX TEMPERATURES SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOWER 90S TO MID 90S.
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES WILL BUILD INTO MONTANA THROUGH THIS PERIOD, CONTINUING THE HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS. THE BREEZY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DECREASE ACROSS THE REGION AS THE RIDGE BUILDS. ALSO, A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL MOVE SOUTH OUT OF CANADA, SHIFTING WINDS MORE EASTERLY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA AND CAUSING TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY TO BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY. WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR THESE STORMS TO PRODUCE PLENTY OF CLOUDINESS, TEMPERATURES THERE ON MONDAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN THOSE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER, THE STRENGTHENING RIDGE WILL HELP WARM TEMPERATURES ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA SIMILAR TO THOSE TODAY AS SOUTHEAST WINDS THERE INCREASE.
HIGHS TODAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO YSTRDY WITH TEMPS MAXING OUT IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S. CURRENT UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OVER THE COUNTRY IS SUCH THAT A RIDGE ENCOMPASSES ABOUT TWO THIRDS OF THE US WITH THE EASTERN PORTION UNDER A TROUGH. THIS RIDGE WILL FLATTEN OUT AND SPREAD EAST DURING THE UP COMING WEEK. PART OF THE REASON FOR THIS A COUPLE WEAKER TROUGHS WILL TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL US MID AND LATE WEEK. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RETURN TO THE REGION AS BERMUDA RIDGE IS ALLOWED TO BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA.
TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT BROAD UPPER RIDGING WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE WRN CONUS TODAY.
349 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015 HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING OVER THE OHIO VALLEY TO MID ATLANTIC REGION WILL GRADUALLY MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH MONDAY.
AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION TODAY. THERE WILL BE SOME INSTABILITY FOR POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT, BUT THE UPPER HIGH LOOKS TO CAP MUCH OF THE AREA. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THIS TROUGH WILL SUPPRESS THE RIDGE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WHILE INSTIGATING A PUSH OF COOLER MARINE AIR INTO THE REGION. THIS TROUGH WILL ALSO CAUSE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL OREGON EAST TO GRANT COUNTY, AND FROM THE BLUE MOUNTAINS EAST TO WALLOWA COUNTY. ELSEWHERE, EXPECT GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS THOUGH A FEW SPRINKLES MAY TRACK ACROSS THE BASIN WITH AN UPPER WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH.
TEMPERATURES HAVE REMAINED MILD WITH 60S OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS UNDER LIGHT WINDS. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE UNDER A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT IS FORECAST TO ROTATE NORTHWARD ACROSS UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. MOST HIGH-RES SOLUTIONS DO BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE PALMER DIVIDE AND RATON MESA REGIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THESE LOCATIONS.