Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Rain and snow has moved east with the short wave and brief ridging will keep the area dry through the remainder of the morning hours. Then, despite ridging building in, some light overrunning precipitation remains possible Sunday into Sunday night.
At 333 AM, low clouds and breezy north winds were widespread over Nebraska and Iowa in the wake of yesterday evenings cold frontal passage. Dry air in the low levels may initially inhibit snowfall, but it shouldn't stop it completely.
647 AM MST Sat Dec 14 2019 UPDATE: As of 600 AM MST, pockets of dense freezing fog have developed at McCook (Red Willow county, NE) and Oberlin (Decatur county, KS). Due to the limited spatio-temporal nature of freezing fog this morning, a Special Weather Statement (issued at 433 am MST) and social media graphics (sent at 455 am MST) have been employed in lieu of A Dense Fog Advisory.
At the surface there are downslope winds across the Snake River plain bringing cooler air dropping all areas below freezing.
Towards the surface, an area of low pressure will develop across eastern Colorado by this afternoon shifting winds to the southeast. Low clouds and patchy freezing fog will be possible across portions of west central and central Kansas this morning then dissipate by this afternoon.
833 AM CST Sat Dec 14 2019 The freezing drizzle has become more productive and impactful than expected. It's associated with a cold front pushing through the area. Winds will then decrease heading into Sunday has high pressure moves over the area.
A weather disturbance moving through a long wave trough is impacting parts of Northwest and west central Montana and North Central Idaho with numerous snow showers. Several short waves will move through this trough through Sunday afternoon. Expect snow accumulations the next 36 hours with some of the higher amounts of 3-7 inches expected in the mountains and 1-4" in valley locations dependent on where some of the stronger snow showers develop. Mountain snow showers will tapering off in the afternoon as a ridge of high pressure devlops over the region.
Early morning surface observations showed a weak cold front edging south across the Victoria Crossroads, with a narrow ribbon of higher moisture along the immediate Coastal Bend. Fog potential still looks better tonight and early Sun morning over the eastern 1/3 or so of the forecast area as dewpoints here reach the lower 60s, but with winds a touch higher than preferred we may see more stratus develop than fog - hence just a patchy fog mention for now.
A warm front attached to a low center coming out of Texas will develop across the mid state on Sunday.
Warmer conditions develop the second half of the week as flow turns out of the south and west.
Expecting that clouds will hold on into the morning hours then toward the noon hour as high pressure and subsidence spreads southeast the cloud cover will give way to more sunshine with a few lingering clouds over the far north and northwest. The high will settle into northern Iowa by 12z Sunday with rather cold conditions over most of the area.
A second system will usher in cooler air, light precipitation, and gusty desert winds Saturday afternoon through early Sunday.
Today Through Sunday For today: the upper flow over Arkansas will trend from west- northwesterly toward quasi-zonal as a trough of low pressure exits the region to the east. At the surface, a weak front associated with the departing low pressure trough will drag through the state with only light precipitation expected over the northern tier of counties during the morning hours. For this afternoon, am expecting mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies forecast area-wide as the aforementioned weak cold front stalls out over southern Arkansas.
Cold front will move southeast of the region this morning, with remaining showers departing. High pressure will build from the west this afternoon with skies gradually clearing. The high will build overhead Tonight. Highs Today in the lower to mid 60s for SE GA, to the upper 60s to lower 70s over NE FL.
A weather disturbance moving through a long wave trough is impacting parts of Northwest and west central Montana and North Central Idaho with numerous snow showers. Several short waves will move through this trough through Sunday afternoon. Expect snow accumulations the next 36 hours with some of the higher amounts of 2-6 inches expected in the mountains and 1-3" in valley locations dependent on where some of the stronger snow showers develop.
This will be short-lived as a cold front will pass through this area not long after daybreak with northwest wind and an initial rise in temperatures.
This warmer flow will have regional temperatures warming back up into the areawide middle to upper 70s by early afternoon. Increasing boundary layer moisture will assist in keeping Sunday morning's temperatures around 10 degrees warmer than tonight's minimums (in the mid to upper 40s). Expect to see increasing shower coverage (maybe an isolated thunderstorm or two) starting after midnight as instability begins to increase ahead of the next cold front.
1133 AM MST Sat Dec 14 2019 UPDATE: As of 600 AM MST, pockets of dense freezing fog have developed at McCook (Red Willow county, NE) and Oberlin (Decatur county, KS). Due to the limited spatio-temporal nature of freezing fog this morning, a Special Weather Statement (issued at 433 am MST) and social media graphics (sent at 455 am MST) have been employed in lieu of A Dense Fog Advisory.
233 PM EST Sat Dec 14 2019 Colder air will wrap through Pennsylvania tonight as low pressure lifts north of the region.
250 PM EST Sat Dec 14 2019 Snow will continue through tonight with the passage of a upper-level trough. Dry conditions return late Sunday under building high pressure. A low pressure system will continue to track east this evening, with backing wind and cold advection snow will prevail. Wind gusts will increase throughout the night, especially in the ridges, due the pressure increase in the wake of the cold front. Widespread snow should taper off during the early morning hours as the main trough axis advances into New England. Isolated snow showers may return briefly tomorrow as low-level trough advances across Central Ohio. Dry weather should return by late Sunday afternoon under building high pressure.
144 PM CST Sat Dec 14 2019 Temperatures have struggled to get out of the single digits and low teens this afternoon, as a Canadian high pressure is firmly in place.
135 PM MST Sat Dec 14 2019 UPDATE: As of 600 AM MST, pockets of dense freezing fog have developed at McCook (Red Willow county, NE) and Oberlin (Decatur county, KS). Due to the limited spatio-temporal nature of freezing fog this morning, a Special Weather Statement (issued at 433 am MST) and social media graphics (sent at 455 am MST) have been employed in lieu of A Dense Fog Advisory.
130 PM EST Sat Dec 14 2019 High pressure briefly slide by to our south on Sunday.
We also expect a cold front to arrive across the northwest zones by late Sunday afternoon which will also noticeably lower temperatures. A warm front will lift northward tonight in response to deepening low pressure across the southern High Plains.
Otherwise, adjusted the pops/light snow coverage slightly and added freezing fog for the southwest zones this morning.
Upper trough over the Upper Mississippi Valley is lifting northeast while weak upper level ridging is spreading into the Mid-South.
However, dry layers were present in the lower and middle troposphere with a significant dry layer in the 850-700mb layer.
remnants of upper low over Mn will continue to propagate east today. More cloud cover over the NE will likely hold high temperatures in the 60s with warmer reading to the SW with more solar. With less cloud cover temperatures may be a few degrees cooler than recent nights.
805 AM EDT SUN MAY 29 2016 A warm front will approach from the south today and then move north across the region late tonight through Monday. A cold front will cross the area Monday night.
Leaned slightly warmer than guidance for max temperatures temperatures today with enough sunshine and mixing.
Meanwhile, a ridge of high pressure is located over portions of the Tennessee and Lower Mississippi Valleys. Upper trough over the Upper Mississippi Valley is lifting northeast while weak upper level ridging is spreading into the Mid-South.
Concur with deterministic output that the CWA/MSA will remain under a quasi-stationary upper level ridge.
Expect temps to be a few deg warmer than seen on Sat. Some upper 70s will be possible in the higher terrain. have gone on the lower end regarding POPs.
1038 AM MDT SUN MAY 29 2016 A weak west/southwesterly flow today ahead of an upper low over southern CA. Latest HRRR initially develops some tstms over the Palmer Divide and Cheyenne Ridge after 19z. Westerly flow aloft will become southerly later today and tonight as an upper level low moves across southern California. Water vapor satellite imagery is showing a weak short wave trough over southwest New Mexico. As far as temperatures go, highs will be 2 to 6 degrees warmer today.
At the surface this morning, a broad area of high pressure was present to our southeast with a very weak/broad area of low pressure across the High Plains. Low level warm air advection expected throughout the day with modest mixing to allow temps to max out in the lower to mid 80s this afternoon.
Continued to highlight the higher threat for rain here in the HWO, along with the forecast itself. 450 AM Update A cold front moves through our area Monday, but the deeper moisture will well east by the time it moves through.
Overall, the highest chance still appears to be over the western half of the forecast area through tonight.
Slightly cooler weather is forecast for today, especially near the coast where there will be areas of low clouds and fog.
652 AM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016 Upper low nearly overhead is in the process of opening up and lifting to the northeast into Canada while slowly weakening early this morning, but there is still sufficient forced ascent to produce scattered to widespread showers this morning. Later tonight, clearing skies and light winds as low level ridging builds in to the region should lead to the re-development of fog in many areas, and it could be more widespread than is currently indicated in the forecast. Memorial Day appears to be the best day of the Holiday weekend underneath weak surface ridging, with light west/northwest winds and warming temps. Our next storm system is an upper low that will have been moving across the northern Rockies, and Monday evening will be over eastern Montana.
Mostly sunny conditions prevail across the CWA this morning, with temps already rising into the low/mid 80s at many sites. High pressure ridging aloft running from the Gulf of Mexico north into the Lower Mississippi Valley will coincide with general anticyclonic flow in the atmospheric low levels in the vicinity to bring mainly dry conditions and partly cloudy skies through the short term period. Meanwhile, the continuing slow trend toward summer-like conditions will persist with highs near (or touching) 90 degrees this afternoon and perhaps a degree or two warmer tomorrow. The upper level ridge over the region will begin to break down a bit by late Monday into Monday night and by then there is a slight prospect of convection developing in a better juxtaposition of ingredients upstream to make it downstream into my western zones before dissipating.
A weak cold front remains poised to the west along the Illinois River: however, all high-res models keep the KILX CWA dry as the front pushes eastward through the area this morning. while high temperatures once again top out in the lower to middle 80s. Main concern with the forecast surrounds the progression of the low with the performance of the models lately with the timing.
With an upper ridge remaining dominant over the eastern seaboard, am expecting temps around to a bit above seasonal today.
An upper low will move east across southern California and into far western Arizona by Monday morning. With southwest flow aloft into our area out ahead of the low, model indications are for an embedded disturbance to enter southwest Texas by this evening, continuing into our area overnight. This is where we have the highest PoPs for tonight.
Temps should be near to slightly above norms today aside from cooler eastern tier given aforementioned outer reach of clouds/precip from Bonnie.
Upstream of this feature, a ridge of high pressure was present over western Alaska. As for temperatures today and tonight, the latest MET, MAV and EC guidance are in good agreement over the next 24 hours, and a blend of persistence, MET and MAV guidance was used for the high and low forecast for today and tonight. This yielded highs in the lower 80s this afternoon and lows in the mid 50s for tonight.
A low pressure system moving slowly east through the desert southwest will serve to keep unsettled conditions across portions of Utah through Monday. Strong high pressure aloft will follow for the middle and latter portions of the upcoming week. Closed low moving across southern California today combined with a trough moving across the Pacific Northwest will create a deformation zone over mainly central and northern portions of the CWA today.
417 AM PDT SUN MAY 29 2016 High pressure will bring dry weather and warming temperatures to northern California through the upcoming week. Water vapor imagery this morning showed a ridge of high pressure offshore moving in behind an upper low located over central California. As the ridge continues to build over the region, the airmass will warm causing temperatures to increase over the next few days with inland areas reaching the 80s and 90s and coastal locations remaining closer to normal.
741 AM EDT SUN MAY 29 2016 A weak cold front will move across the area today and may spark an isolated shower or thunderstorm. Otherwise fair weather is expected through Memorial Day as high pressure builds in behind the front. Temperatures will remain above normal with highs in the lower to middle 80s and lows in the lower to middle 60s. Weak pre-frontal trough to push through forecast area this morning and early afternoon effectively scouring most low level moisture as it does. Still expect max temps in the lower to middle 80s with a run at a few upper 80s in the far east. Lows tonight will be a bit cooler along with less humid conditions as temps drop into the lower 60s and a few upper 50s possible.
Trough extending down from Canada will bring moist sw flow this afternoon.
603 AM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016 Some drier air will filter in behind the cold front today, as surface dewpoints only expected in the upper 50s to lower 60s by this afternoon. Otherwise, it will be a comfortable night with lows dropping into the lower 60s, with some upper 50s possible.
A weak and slow moving upper level low will maintain temperatures slightly below average to start the new week.
A weak cold front ran south from the low into western Illinois. Behind the front a weak trof ran from southeast Minnesota into southwest Iowa. Through sunrise isolated sprinkles will be possible in the highway 20 corridor west of Dubuque.
This will precede the synoptic trough to the west latching onto the lee surface mountain trough and dragging it along with more showers and thunderstorms Monday morning when a better chance for QPF increases. This low will move into Western Montana tonight. Today, zonal flow over Northeast Montana and a weak ridge in Southern Saskatchewan will bring about a warm, dry day with mostly light westerly wind. Tonight, off to the west, the digging trough will begin to back local upper flow around to the southwest, introducing moisture and instability to the local area. Monday, the upper low begins to close off and gain strength, sending a more distinct cold front across the local area.
5kft, NW 15 to 80 kt above and into the lower stratosphere.
As the week continues, showers and thunderstorms will be mainly driven with the typical summer afternoon diurnal pattern, although with the upper level ridging building back overhead, coverage will remain only isolated to scattered.
/issued 446 AM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016/ Morning upper pattern featured a ridge axis from Nevada southeast to the Four Corners before flattening over the Texas South Plains. This depression of the ridge locally was in large part to nocturnal storms that have since laid an outflow boundary from the Permian Basin into the Big Country. Lack of much capping ahead of this outflow points to scattered-to-numerous storms, but kept POPs this afternoon in the high chance realm as this potential MCS has yet to even develop and could thwart our thinking altogether should it fail to emerge.
830 AM PDT SUN MAY 29 2016 Very warm weather expected this week as high pressure strengthens. Temperatures will inch up a few more degrees today as high pressure strengthens a bit. Another warm day in store for interior NorCal today as high pressure ridging over the Eastern Pacific begins building into the West Coast. Highs today: valley in the low 90s, delta in the mid 70s to mid 80s, foothills in the 80s, mountain highs in the 60s and 70s. There's another chance for Sierra convection this afternoon due to low pressure lingering over SoCal. However, any showers or thunderstorms that develop will likely be limited to the higher elevations of the Sierra south of Tahoe.
Severe threat is fairly low this afternoon and appears to be restricted to areas east of GRR and AZO as diurnal heating combines with sfc convergence from weak cold front moving through.
Model soundings show temperatures in the mixed layer around or a degree or two above Saturdays temperature profile so afternoon highs in the low to mid 80s looks good. Through the middle part of the week, an upper level low over the Desert Southwest will slowly approach the central and southern Plains and will eventually phase up with another closed low dropping out of southwest Canada into the northern Plains. Weak disturbances ahead of these systems will help focus areas of scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms to the High Plains, especially as increasingly moist low level southerly flow develops across the central and southern Plains.
The high resolution models are showing some showers forming again by late morning along and just east of this line, then slowly moving into Minnesota through the afternoon. remnants of upper low over Mn will continue to propagate east today. More cloud cover over the NE will likely hold high temperatures in the 60s with warmer reading to the SW with more solar. With less cloud cover temperatures may be a few degrees cooler than recent nights.
Most of the storms will move off to the east by the late evening as the cold front moves through, but a few may linger near Butte. There has been consistency for the trough to become a closed low pressure system on the east side of the Continental Divide by Monday. This low will clip Glacier National Park, which will lower snow levels to around 6500 feet on Monday. Rain and high elevation snow chances will extend along the Divide into Monday night as the low moves off to the east.
The upper ridge extending northwest from Bermuda toward the mid Atlantic region continues to hold over that region through Sunday then slowly weakens and moves eastward. On the surface, a pair of high pressure centers remain over the mid Atlantic region and over the northern Gulf of Mexico. Just to the south of the mid Atlantic ridge, Tropical Storm Bonnie remains off the coast of South Carolina. The high pressure center over the gulf will keep any effects of this storm well to our northeast. Sea breeze showers and storms can be expected during the afternoon for the next couple of days with the highest concentration being south of the I-4 corridor and over inland counties.
Another warm day in store for interior NorCal today as high pressure ridging over the Eastern Pacific begins building into the West Coast. Highs today: valley in the low 90s, delta in the mid 70s to mid 80s, foothills in the 80s, mountain highs in the 60s and 70s. There's another chance for Sierra convection this afternoon due to low pressure lingering over SoCal. However, any showers or thunderstorms that develop will likely be limited to the higher elevations of the Sierra south of Tahoe.
Cut back on pops today with still some likely to categorical pops in the Piedmont and to the Blue Ridge. Setup continues to favor showers over the east during the night but usually at night tropical systems with respect to rainfall tighten up, such that areas along and west of the Blue Ridge appear to dry out after midnight or have limited coverage. High humidity and showers will be in the forecast as long as it remains with highest pops along and east of the Blue Ridge, and lowest in the west. With more breaks in the cloud cover, temperatures will be warmer than normal with 80s for highs.
Mid level cap from yesterday afternoon weakened a bit overnight as slightly cooler air aloft associated with a weak upper low coming into southern California.
Deep layer ridging, albeit somewhat flat aloft, is expected to prevail for the next few days, yielding minimal and mainly diurnally driven convection with temperatures near or just above seasonal normals.
331 AM EDT WED MAY 25 2016 Sunshine and warmer weather will return today ahead of a cold front. A ridge of high pressure will build over the area tonight. then hold over the region on Thursday as a warm front approaches from the west.
201 AM EDT WED MAY 25 2016 A ridge of high pressure will build over the northeastern U. Slightly cooler weather may arrive for Memorial Day. If they do, it will be over the ridges and very sparse coverage.
Upper air weather maps show a short wave mid level ridge axis extending from the western Gulf into the Lower Mississippi River Delta. Along the western periphery of the deep layer ridge axis. 9 inches from the Lower Mississippi River Delta to eastern Texas). within the eastern periphery of the ridge axis (pwats range from 1. larger scale subsidence from the upper ridge keeps mention of rain out of the forecast.
Additional storms could develop along/south of I80 midnight and beyond on the nose of the low level jet. Thursday could be an active weather day even though the upper trough is still spinning across the Rockies.
The best chance for this to occur would be across the highway 14 corridor where the capping inversion is slightly weaker, but can't rule out any particular location in the forecast area. If by chance a storm is able to develop, not an overly supportive environment for tornadoes with weak shear in the low levels; however, models suggest steep lapse rates of 9.
326 AM CDT WED MAY 25 2016 An elongated low pressure region through the northern and central Plains will be the primary weather-making feature today as it moves slowly northeastward in southwesterly flow. Warm temperatures will continue today with highs again in the low to mid 80s. Southerly winds 10 to 15 mph will result from a gradient between the low pressure over the Plains and high pressure over the east coast. Upper flow currently coming out of the southwest, rounding the southern edge of a closed low off the California coast.
The pattern will be dominated by a large trough across the west half of the U. , and a large ridge across the east half of the U. A period of NE winds up to 25 knots is expected over the western lake today into early tonight as low pressure develops over the plains and moves to the Upper MS valley.
246 AM MDT WED MAY 25 2016 Upper flow will be southwest today/tonight ahead of an upper low that will move into the 4-corners areas Thursday. The upper low will move into eastern Colorado Thursday night.
Look for temperatures to be a few degrees warmer today with highs in the lower 80s.
125 AM EDT WED MAY 25 2016 Low pressure across southern new england will move northeast of the region overnight. A cold front approach wednesday and will cross the area by wednesday evening and will be followed by high pressure thursday.
314 AM EDT WED MAY 25 2016 High pressure over the area will weaken toward evening as a weak cold front approaches from the north.