Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
/Updated at 1230 PM CDT Sun Mar 13 2022/ High pressure currently over the state will move east through the night. Low and mid level flow will transition from out of the north and northwest to out of the southwest with moisture and warmer air advection beginning for tonight and Monday. Clear skies will reign through the night and with the warmer air slowly moving into the state. low temperatures will be in the lower 30's. With plenty of warmer air moving north from the Gulf. high temperatures will be in the low to mid 60's.
Elsewhere, winds are expected to be lighter on Monday with seasonal temperatures as ridging builds back over the region.
Showers and isolated thunderstorms in the wake of a departing trough will dissipate this evening with ridging and high pressure building in for Monday with warming temps.
A surface warm front, lying across southwest Pa this evening, is progged to lift northeast through the forecast area Monday. 18Z GEFS 2m temp anomalies suggest the western half of the forecast area should see the warmest readings relative to normal, while a later arrival of warm front results in a more modest rebound across the Susq Valley. A fair and mild night is in store for the area Monday night south of advancing warm front, with lows mainly in the low to mid 30s.
941 PM EDT Sun Mar 13 2022 High pressure will lead to relatively dry conditions and a warming trend through mid week. Lows tonight to range from near 30 in the east to the lower 30s west. Weak mid level ridging will be in place across the Ohio Valley on Monday, leading to mostly sunny conditions.
532 PM EDT Sun Mar 13 2022 Dry and warmer conditions are expected through the end of the week as ridge advances over the Great Lakes. Temperatures will likely climb above the climatological average tomorrow as high pressure, centered over the coast of the Carolinas, provides prevailing warm, SW flow. Clouds will pass through the Ohio River Valley as low-level moisture builds late Monday afternoon and upper-level trough passes through the Midwest, streaming mid to upper-level clouds downstream.
The warm front to the south will move toward central WI before stalling. Swly winds and the passage of the warm front will boost temps into the 50s from Madison to Milwaukee and south, with lower to middle 40s toward central WI. The cold front will likely accelerate down the lake during the middle to late afternoon and drop temps from the 50s into the 30s from MKE to ENW, with lesser temp drops well inland.
830 PM EDT Sun Mar 13 2022 Another night of subfreezing temperatures is expected with a Freeze Warning in effect for Monday morning. After another chilly start to the day, warmer temperatures are expected on Monday with continued dry conditions.
A strong ridge across the southeastern United States will maintain fresh east northeasterly breezes on Keys waters through the overnight period.
519 PM MDT Sun Mar 13 2022 19z surface analysis had low over northeast WY with warm front into eastern NE and cold front into central MT. Water vapour matinee had trough over the Rockies, weakening as it moves eastward. Monday, slightly above normal temperatures expected as upper ridge builds over the Rockies.
Remainder of the week will feature a ridge across the west with several waves coming across the region. Currently not expecting any precipitation with the systems, just warmer temperatures. Previous discussion (3am):A chance for light rain or snow is expected across the area as a cold front pushes through. Upper ridging will become established across the western U.
959 PM EDT Sun Mar 13 2022 High pressure will build over the area through early this week bringing quieter conditions to eastern North Carolina. More unsettled weather is expected mid to late week as a slow moving low pressure system traverses the area. For the rest of the overnight winds may remain up for a few more hours, but eventually as high pressure crests overhead winds should decouple with widespread sub freezing low temps. The low levels look too dry for any appreciable fog overnight despite the expected excellent radiational cooling. High pressure continues to influence the weather Mon with continued clear skies and light winds. SW flow will help to warm temps back into the low to mid 60s inland and cooler mid 50 to upper 50s immediate coast.
813 PM EDT Sun Mar 13 2022 High pressure will lead to relatively dry conditions and a warming trend through mid week. Gusty southwesterly winds of 30-40 mph across the area at the moment should begin to decrease through late afternoon as the low level jet moves out of our area. Lows tonight will be mainly in the lower 30s. Weak mid level ridging will be in place across the Ohio Valley on Monday, leading to mostly sunny conditions.
A cold front will push through tomorrow morning, bringing gusty northerly winds to all terminals through much of the day. Have trended overnight low temps warmer with the expectation of the somewhat elevated wind speeds through the nighttime hours. This trough will deepen as it moves across the Colorado Rockies, likely closing off as it moves onto the central and southern High Plains. Meanwhile the upper trough, accompanied by a mid to upper level speed max, will bring sufficient mid level moisture and modest elevated instability to potentially produce some isolated to scattered rain showers spreading from the northwestern zones southeastward toward the southern Rolling Plains from late morning through the afternoon.
The Bismarck sounding still shows a good amount of dry air below 800 MB, but we do expect the lower atmosphere to moisten over the next couple of hours with snow breaking out this evening form west central ND, mainly between the Interstate and Highway 200, east through Washburn and Bismarck to around Jamestown. This has trended a bit southward compared to prior forecasts with the highest snow totals now expected between Watford City and Dickinson, east to between Garrison and Bismarck, and then along either side of I94 towards the Jamestown area.
A low pressure system is slated to move into south central SD this evening. There's still some uncertainty regarding whether or not the cloud layer will then be deep enough to support freezing drizzle or if precip will simply come to an end. Best guess is that areas from the James Valley east to the Sisseton Hills could see an hour or two of freezing drizzle or freezing drizzle mixing with light snow. Warm air will advect in from the west again on Monday, so while highs may only top out in the lower 30s in the northeastern forecast area, areas west river will see highs around 50 degrees. High pressure over the northeast will hold off any good mixing through the day.
1049 PM EDT Sun Mar 13 2022 High pressure moves off the southeast coast Monday.
927 PM EDT Sun Mar 13 2022 Dry and warmer conditions are expected through the end of the week as ridge advances over the Great Lakes. Temperatures will likely climb above the climatological average tomorrow as high pressure, centered over the coast of the Carolinas, provides prevailing warm, SW flow. Clouds will pass through the Ohio River Valley as low-level moisture builds late Monday afternoon and upper-level trough passes through the Midwest, streaming mid to upper-level clouds downstream.
A weak cold front will move through over the next few hours that's currently in Wheatland County, and bring some northwest winds to the area, and the best rain/snow shower potential.
934 PM EDT Sun Mar 13 2022 High pressure will remain in control of our weather through much of the work week.
High pressure has started to move more ewd into the srn Atlantic states, thereby allowing a return flow pattern to develop over much of the region. This has certainly aided some of the warmer temps seen earlier today and will translate into this trend continuing into early Mon, with lows expected to fall into the lower 30s/near 30F.
302 PM MDT Sun Mar 13 2022 Radar returns and local webcams in and around Salt Lake City are showing plenty of low clouds with some rain in the lower elevations and a few snow showers in the higher elevations. This is in response to an approaching trough from the northwest. Snowfall amounts look similar to previous runs with 2 to 4 inches likely, maybe 6 inches or a wee bit more, for the highest peaks. Winds will shift to northerly once the trough moves through but will quickly become westerly as the next ridge builds in.
Usual locations, like Paris, TN may drop to near freezing. No freezing or subfreezing temperatures are in the forecast for the next 7 days. Tomorrow should be even warmer and dry with morning lows in the mid 30s and highs in the low to middle 60s.
Remainder of the week will feature a ridge across the west with several waves coming across the region. Currently not expecting any precipitation with the systems, just warmer temperatures. MORNING DISCUSSION (3am): A chance for light rain or snow is expected across the area as a cold front pushes through. Upper ridging will become established across the western U.
Expect scattered clouds and slightly cooler temperatures today.
This and a weak inversion will allow for some radtional cooling with overnight lows in the lower and middle 30s still looking good. The dry air will allow for temperatures to drop into the mid 30s tonight but the southerly flow will help keep conditions much warmer than previous nights. A low level low pressure system will be closing off across western Texas during the daytime hours with high pressure to the east leading to a strong southerly flux of moisture and warm air to central Indiana. Highs should reach into the low 60s across the board before a mild night Monday night as temperatures only fall into the low to mid 40s.
Clear skies will now prevail through the evening as weak high pressure settles overhead. This high pressure and ideal nocturnal cooling under clear skies will also support a rapid drop in the wind speeds with sunset and will maintain light SSW winds through the night. An approaching warm front will drive mid and high level clouds (based above 8k feet) across the region late tonight and into Mon morning.
Surface warm front is progged to lift north of the area Monday, resulting in afternoon temperatures several degrees above climo. Low temperatures tomorrow night will stay in the lower 30s.
648 PM EDT Sun Mar 13 2022 High pressure will remain in control of our weather through much of the work week.
A brief window may exist for the development of patchy freezing fog in local river valleys between 10-13Z, but due to the low probability of occurrence, we have not included this in the grids.
Warmer tonight with lows in the M40s across far NW around Lake George to the L60s along the coast south of the Cape due to the persistent onshore flow. Winds become East with pressure gradient around departing high pressure supporting 10-15 mph interior and 15 to 20 mph with some higher gusts at the coast. High temps in the low to mid 70s. High pressure will slowly drift from the southeast U.
524 PM MDT Sun Mar 13 2022 Radar returns and local webcams in and around Salt Lake City are showing plenty of low clouds with some rain in the lower elevations and a few snow showers in the higher elevations. This is in response to an approaching trough from the northwest. Snowfall amounts look similar to previous runs with 2 to 4 inches likely, maybe 6 inches or a wee bit more, for the highest peaks. Winds will shift to northerly once the trough moves through but will quickly become westerly as the next ridge builds in.
Upper ridge will move into Montana today with warmer temperatures.
219 AM CDT Mon Mar 14 2022 The upper trough currently over New Mexico/Colorado will continue to amplify as it progresses southeastward through the day. Current temps behind the front remain on the mild side, mid 30s to near 50 as of 1 AM, and should only cool highs today into the low 60s/70s. Models continue to indicate the chance for light rain showers during the late morning to afternoon as the upper trough axis moves just to our east. Rain chances will move to the east by the evening as the upper low moves over the ARKLATEX region.
As the upper level trough continues to move eastward across North Texas, a weak cold front is expected to be ejected into South Texas. The cold front is expected to arrive across our northern counties late tonight/early tomorrow morning around 06z and push offshore by 10/12z early tomorrow morning. Highs tomorrow with be just a tick cooler compared to today as drier air filters into the region.
Upper level ridge of high pressure will bring dry weather to the forecast area today and tonight.
A low pressure system is slated to move into south central SD this evening. There's still some uncertainty regarding whether or not the cloud layer will then be deep enough to support freezing drizzle or if precip will simply come to an end. Best guess is that areas from the James Valley east to the Sisseton Hills could see an hour or two of freezing drizzle or freezing drizzle mixing with light snow. Warm air will advect in from the west again on Monday, so while highs may only top out in the lower 30s in the northeastern forecast area, areas west river will see highs around 50 degrees. High pressure over the northeast will hold off any good mixing through the day. Did trend the baseline blended guidance toward the warmer solutions.
Cold front is on our doorstep early this morning and will help introduce strong wind gusts behind it. Quite a bit of cloudiness will keep today cooler, but this is not an arctic front, but a Pacific one, and temps will top out in the 40s to near 50. However, there is a huge difference between cooler MET Guidance and warmer MAV Guidance (9-17 degree difference), so going between the solutions, but closer the MAV.
As the wave closes off over Louisiana on Tuesday, upper ridging builds across the Plains into Missouri. Temperatures will top off in the lower 60s for afternoon highs.
Have trended overnight low temps warmer with the expectation of the somewhat elevated wind speeds through the nighttime hours. This trough will deepen as it moves across the Colorado Rockies, likely closing off as it moves onto the central and southern High Plains. Meanwhile the upper trough, accompanied by a mid to upper level speed max, will bring sufficient mid level moisture and modest elevated instability to potentially produce some isolated to scattered rain showers spreading from the northwestern zones southeastward toward the southern Rolling Plains from late morning through the afternoon. After the coolest morning we'll see all week, Tuesday will warm up nicely to around 70 for most locations in our CWA with only light breezy winds as a progressive upper level ridge shifts ease during the day.
At the surface, high pressure system over the Tennessee Valley will progressively move towards the western North Atlantic allowing persistent WAA.
256 AM CDT Mon Mar 14 2022 Limited moisture return with the upper trof and associated surface cyclone and front today as it moves across central and eastern Kansas. However cannot rule out a few sprinkles ahead of and behind the cold front. As this trof becomes a closed low this evening over eastern Oklahoma, dynamic lift/cooling aloft and somewhat better moisture flux will lead to some weak elevated instability that could clip far southeast Kansas.
930 PM PDT Sun Mar 13 2022 A trough moving inland across California will bring gusty west winds to the mountains and deserts, gradually diminishing overnight. The winds will briefly become easterly Monday as a transient ridge moves west to east over the region, with the easterly winds mainly inland.
132 AM EDT Mon Mar 14 2022 After another chilly start to the day, warmer temperatures are expected today with continued dry conditions.
312 AM EDT Mon Mar 14 2022 Warmer temperatures and continued dry weather are expected today and Tuesday as high pressure moves off the Carolina coast.
Discussion: For Today, upper flow becomes more west to southwest with significant increases in heights and thickness producing warmer temperatures. Surface ridging will stretch from the Carolinas into the Gulf Coast states so a dry southwest boundary layer flow. For Tonight, surface ridging remains in place with upper flow becoming more southwesterly.
157 AM CDT Mon Mar 14 2022 Surface observations this morning show much warmer temperatures versus this time yesterday with current readings in the mid 30s to mid 40s.
This will leave behind mainly zonal flow with building heights, with a flat ridge in place over the southern Rockies. An upper trough approachs the west coast tonight and energy swings out ahead of it, moving across southwest Canada. The western trough swings northeast and moves into western and central Montana Tuesday morning, then across the rest of the state Tuesday afternoon and evening. The trough is not progged to be amplified much at all, was fairly flat in fact, so forcing does not look overly strong with this system. Most of the moisture gets wrung out over the mountains, but will paint some lower PoPs over the western foothills to go along with high scattered PoPs for the higher terrain.
Usual locations, like Paris, TN may drop to near freezing. No freezing or subfreezing temperatures are in the forecast for the next 7 days. Tomorrow should be even warmer and dry with morning lows in the mid 30s and highs in the low to middle 60s. The GFS is still a bit faster than the ECMWF but has taken the upper level low on a slightly farther track in line with previous ECMWF runs.
This and a weak inversion will allow for some radtional cooling with overnight lows in the lower and middle 30s still looking good. The dry air will allow for temperatures to drop into the mid 30s tonight but the southerly flow will help keep conditions much warmer than previous nights. A low level low pressure system will be closing off across western Texas during the daytime hours with high pressure to the east leading to a strong southerly flux of moisture and warm air to central Indiana. Highs should reach into the low 60s across the board before a mild night Monday night as temperatures only fall into the low to mid 40s. A few sprinkles are possible late Monday night into early Tuesday associated with a very weak and dissipating cold front.
A trailing area of elevated instability will allow for virga or sprinkles across eastern SD into southwest MN this morning into early afternoon but the instability is weak enough and the low level moisture dry enough that measurable precipitation is very unlikely. A thin ridge of high pressure will move through the area tonight behind the exiting wave with southerly flow gradually developing from west to east.
300 AM EDT Mon Mar 14 2022 High pressure will continue to extend westward across NC through this evening.
1150 PM MDT Sun Mar 13 2022 (14/00Z TAF period) Clouds will continue to clear this evening as high pressure builds into the area. A lee trough will develop during the day on Monday, which will result in the return of gusty winds along the Rocky Mountain Front and gusty winds, especially after sunrise.
251 AM EDT Mon Mar 14 2022 High pressure starts off the new work week dry, with a stout warming trend continuing.
Forecast Summary: Expect a cooler and breezier day as a cold front passes through the area.
332 AM EDT Mon Mar 14 2022 High pressure over the southeast United States will maintain dry weather through Tuesday with temperatures moderating. A low pressure system is expected to develop over Texas on Tuesday, then move east across the southeastern U.
This morning will most likely still be chilly, especially for northern counties where lows may be in the lower to mid 40s. However, the high pressure will allow for warmer, more moist air to filter in and will help to increase temperatures closer to normal.
Cold front has passed through southeast Wyoming and Nebraska Panhandle last night. Upper ridge axis moves through the CWA around 00Z this afternoon with westerly winds beginning to increase once again. Craig to Casper 850/700mb height gradients begin to increase after 00Z as the ridge axis slides southeast.
1257 AM EDT Mon Mar 14 2022 Dry and warmer conditions are expected through the end of the week as ridge advances over the Great Lakes. A slowly building eastern CONUS ridge will bring dry weather and a mix of clouds and sun to the region today.
142 AM EDT Mon Mar 14 2022 High pressure moves off the southeast coast Monday.
The Low is modeled to track along the Red River to/along the AR/LA border thru 00Z Wed, then dive southeast across southern MS, to near the FL Panhandle by 12Z Wed. A good gradient between the approaching area of low pressure to the west, and high pressure to the east, will produce another day of breezy south to southwest winds.
1107 PM MDT Sun Mar 13 2022 19z surface analysis had low over northeast WY with warm front into eastern NE and cold front into central MT. Water vapour matinee had trough over the Rockies, weakening as it moves eastward. Monday, slightly above normal temperatures expected as upper ridge builds over the Rockies. Monday night to Tuesday, upper/thermal ridge peaks with downslope flow and temperatures 15-20F above normal.
Returning southwest flow is resulting in warmer temperatures on Monday afternoon near seasonal normals. Surface ridging will remain across the southeast United States through the period keeping conditions dry.
120 AM EDT Mon Mar 14 2022 High pressure will lead to relatively dry conditions and a warming trend through mid week. Lows tonight to range from near 30 in the east to the lower 30s west. Weak mid level ridging will be in place across the Ohio Valley on Monday, leading to mostly sunny conditions.
337 AM CDT Mon Mar 14 2022 Breezy conditions persist today as warm air continues to be pushed northward by the LLJ enhanced by a leeward trough off the eastern Rockies. Throughout the day, the lee cyclone is expected to make its way across northern Oklahoma eventually traveling the eastern Oklahoma I-40 corridor into Arkansas keeping it well south of our area. Vertical profiles support this potential showing ample saturation through the low layer.
There is still a narrow window of opportunity for freezing drizzle on the backside of this system as well, which would further impact the morning commute. Clouds will clear through the afternoon and winds will be relatively light, as the low departs and high pressure takes its place. Shifting to the afternoon Tuesday, the main story becomes very mild temperatures as south-southwesterly winds continue advecting in warm air, under a large upper-level ridge.
A brief break in clouds and precipitation today with the upper level ridge returning, only to be flattened by an incoming weak winter storm that will most likely develop precipitation early Tue morning, spreading eastward to the ID-WY border by early afternoon. There is no deep warm southerly flow ahead of this trough, so temperatures won't be very warm, but should be warm enough at the lower elevations and heaviest populated areas to be an all-rain until the late night hours Tue night. Wind-wise, Tue afternoon has sustained wind in the Snake River plain of 15 to 20 mph with the potential for gusts, along with the windy ridges of the central Idaho mountains. The second storm ends late Wed night, with enough clearing to bring below freezing temperatures everywhere in the forecast area.
(Today and tonight) An amplifying mid-level trough currently moving into the Rocky Mountains states will approach the Plains today. A cold front currently over western Kansas will move into the area this morning and continue moving southeast through the area this afternoon and early evening. Windy conditions are expected today in western Oklahoma, especially behind the cold front that will move through this morning.