Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
The core of the ridge will be just north and west of the forecast area, and weak cold air advection with northeasterly winds through the mid levels will keep temperatures from rising too quickly over the next few days.
Cloud cover has returned to areas from Great Falls to Helena as small swath of moisture and lift works its way through central MT behind the upper-level trof that moved through the forecast area earlier this evening. Ahead of this system, Montana will remain beneath a building short wave ridge with seasonable temperatures persisting through the short term period.
346 AM CDT MON SEP 19 2016 (Today and Tonight) An upper level ridge is forecast to become centered across West Texas today, with a relative weakness across West Central Texas. This weakness in the ridge is being picked up by most of the models, including most of the high resolution models (HRRR/NMM/ARW), which indicate the development of isolated showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and into the early evening hours. High temperatures today will be well above seasonal normals, mainly in the low to mid 90s although a few locations may approach the upper 90s. Overnight lows will generally be in the lower 70s, which is 5 to 10 degrees above seasonal normals.
102 AM EDT MON SEP 19 2016 A dissipating cold front will cross the area this evening. High pressure will begin to build over the region from the southwest later tonight. This high will linger over the region through Monday night. Another weak cold front will cross the region on Tuesday with high pressure returning for the middle portion of the week. Mainly quiet weather is expected during the period as two areas of high pressure will dominate the region. It will briefly get pushed aside on Tuesday as another weakening cold front arrives from the northwest.
651 AM EDT MON SEP 19 2016 A weak cold front will move into the are today and merge with low pressure off the southeast coast. An upper level low will develop over the region and linger through the end of the week. A weak cold front will cross the area today and move to the coast tonight. An upper level trough just west of the Appalachians this morning will move into the area late today. becoming a cut-off low tonight. Kept temperatures near guidance consensus for the highs in the mid to upper 80s and lows tonight in the upper 60s and lower 70s.
Sharp westerly flow will begin to back to the southwest as a trough digs along the Pacific NW coast today. Higher elevation ridgelines or open terrain above 5k feet msl will see gusty winds develop during the afternoon, while sheltered mountain valleys and sites below 5k feet are capped from the stronger winds aloft. For Tuesday the digging trough will bring enough lift and moisture to support a slight chance of showers over Valley county (north and east of McCall to Banner Summit line). Winds are again gusty across higher open terrain and ridgelines on Tuesday.
850mb temperatures are about 4 to 6C cooler for Monday however deep mixing will help mitigate these cooler low level temperatures, with highs about 10 degrees above average. The first arrives Tuesday night when a developing warm front is forecast to be slowly working northeastward through South Dakota.
301 AM EDT MON SEP 19 2016 High pressure will linger over the region today and tonight. A weak cold front will cross the region on early Tuesday. High pressure will return for midweek. The NAM shows an upper trough from Western Ohio south to MS/AL supporting clouds across Eastern Ohio and NWRN PA. high pressure was to our west. Expecting eastern/southeastern counties to clear this morning as the high builds in. Cold front on track to move into the area Tuesday.
330 AM EDT Mon Sep 19 2016 Moisture associated with weak low pressure will move east tonight.
359 AM EDT MON SEP 19 2016 A weak cold front will move into the are today and merge with low pressure off the southeast coast. An upper level low will develop over the region and linger through the end of the week. A weak cold front will move into the area today. An upper level trough west of the Appalachians this morning will move into the area late today. becoming a cut-off low tonight. Kept temperatures near guidance consensus for the highs in the mid to upper 80s and lows tonight in the upper 60s and lower 70s.
The second problem revolves around the shower/thunderstorm risk tonight across parts of central Illinois as a weak cold front slips into the area. Temperatures should top out a few degrees warmer than yesterday, with widespread mid-upper 80s. /Canada border will push a weak cold front into the forecast area tonight. In the latter half of the week, a large wave digs a trof over the Pac NW and slowly makes its way across the country. The GFS is far more aggressive with the progression and absorption of the low into the mean flow/phasing into the northerly stream at h5. Some MVFR level clouds could arrive near PIA between 04-06z at the end of the TAF period, as a cold front arrives from the NW. Winds tomorrow will increase from the south, in response to an approaching cold front from the northwest.
The big story today will be the heat as high pressure builds in across our region. That said, added in a very low mention of isolated storms southwest of a Cisco to Stephenville to Killeen line this afternoon in the vicinity of a weakness in the mid-level ridge/inverted trough axis. High pressure will be in charge through most of the upcoming week, resulting in above normal high temperatures and a stretch of quiescent weather.
321 AM CDT Mon Sep 19 2016 Warming trend well underway this morning as the combination of high pressure sliding off to our east and weak low pressure to our north has allowed for the reestablishment of southerly flow across our region. models continue to highlight decent 850 ridging across our area today as warm air surges northward in advance of a weak boundary that will begin sliding south into northern/central Iowa this afternoon.
156 AM EDT MON SEP 19 2016 A weak cold front moving into the forecast area will merge with low pressure off the southeast coast Monday. A trough will linger near the coast through much of the week and a chance of showers and thunderstorms will continue. Convection has been flanking the forecast area all afternoon with sea breeze convection pushing in from the east and light showers associated with an approaching upper trough arriving from the west. There should be little convergence associated with the front because of the northwest low-level flow on the backside of offshore low pressure. The models depict the upper trough moving into the forecast area becoming a cut-off low by Monday night with this feature lingering through Tuesday. There may also be increased moisture Tuesday in the flow wrapping around offshore low pressure.
311 AM MDT MON SEP 19 2016 Another beautiful day in store as high pressure remains in control. A few clouds are possible over the higher terrain but, by and large, clear skies will be the rule with some gusty afternoon winds though nothing out of the ordinary. On Tuesday, moisture from TS Paine off the Baja coast will get caught in the anticyclonic flow from the high pressure over Texas and start streaming into our area.
247 AM CDT MON SEP 19 2016 Temperatures across the Midsouth range from the low 60s to the low 70s. but a few degrees cooler than last week. in the upper 60s to near 70 degrees, so at least it should feel a bit cooler.
634 AM EDT Mon Sep 19 2016 High pressure will bring dry weather and above normal temperatures this week. Pcpn has ended as a H5 trof has pushed PVA into West Virginia. The boundary that the convection formed on will continue to weaken as a high pressure ridge builds into the region. With the sunshine, temperatures will warm to above normal with highs in the lower 80s.
High pressure and dry air aloft will maintain VFR conditions for the next 24 hours. High pressure and dry air aloft will keep VFR conditions in place. /issued 237 PM CDT SUN SEP 18 2016/ SHORT TERM (Tonight through Monday Night): The core of an H5 ridge centered nearly overhead will shift slightly west through the short term, but its broad spread will still cover the CWA, and the mid levels will remain dry. Reinforcing high pressure will move out over the Northwest Gulf on Monday, bringing a subtle backing of winds late Mon into Mon night, through wind strength will remain light.
An upper level trough and accompanying surface front will move into the region today.
High pressure ridging will build today as the jet stream buckles and shifts north across southern Canada. An upper low and trough start to get organized over the Pacific Northwest Tuesday. Highs today will be in the lower to middle 70s with middle 70s to around 80 degrees possible for Tuesday.
357 AM CDT MON SEP 19 2016 An upper ridge will continue to build over the southern Plains today and will persist for much of this week.
402 AM EDT MON SEP 19 2016 Currently - Winds are weak out of the east due to a weak ridge just to our north. Deep layered ridging, while not strong, remains broadly centered across Florida and the Keys. Forecast - Surface winds will remain weak and generally easterly through the duration of the forecast as a weak ridge remains to our north. A weak trough aloft will slip into the eastern United States around mid week. The deep layered ridging will, in turn, shift out into the Atlantic.
A large low pressure system is expected to dig into the western U.
241 AM MDT MON SEP 19 2016 Current surface map places high pressure ridge across southern Montana into western South Dakota. High pressure builds across the for today. Flat upper ridge builds across the northern plains on Tuesday.
SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday): A broad 500mb ridge centered near the Texas Big Bend region this morning will remain nearly in place through the forecast period.
106 AM EDT Mon Sep 19 2016 A cold front will slowly finish passing through the area overnight into Monday morning. High pressure behind the front will bring dry and warm weather for much of the rest of the week. Lrg upr low well north in Canada dvlps a broad trof over the nrn US into the ern lakes. Models in solid agreement on a quiet midweek period generally under high pressure, but with just a subtle weak dry cool front slipping through Tuesday night. Lack of cloud cover will lead to comfortably cool nights with lows mainly in the lower to mid 50s, which is near climatology if not a touch above.
323 AM EDT Mon Sep 19 2016 Clouds and rain chances are expected to persist until final passage of a cold front later today. The convection-focusing front was analyzed as a semi-stationary boundary from Lake Erie, across Central Ohio, southward to the Lower Mississippi Valley this morning.
Water vapor imagery and GOES IR winds indicate long wave trough axis extends south from Michigan through central Kentucky and Middle Tennessee. Combination of the surface front and middle level trough are continuing to produce some light to moderate rain and rainshowers over portions of southwest Virginia. Temperatures will be a little cooler than what we were experiencing last week but still expected to be about 3-6 degrees above normal for most valley locations.
/Issued 357 AM CDT MON SEP 19 2016/ An upper ridge will continue to build over the southern Plains today and will persist for much of this week.
626 AM EDT MON SEP 19 2016 High pressure will linger over the region today and tonight. A weak cold front will cross the region on early Tuesday. High pressure will return for midweek. The NAM shows an upper trough from Western Ohio south to MS/AL supporting clouds across Eastern Ohio and NWRN PA. high pressure was to our west. Expecting eastern/southeastern counties to clear this morning as the high builds in. Cold front on track to move into the area Tuesday.
333 AM EDT Mon Sep 19 2016 Moisture associated with weak low pressure will move east tonight.
618 AM EDT MON SEP 19 2016 A weak cold front will move into the are today and merge with low pressure off the southeast coast. An upper level low will develop over the region and linger through the end of the week. A weak cold front will cross the area today and move to the coast tonight. An upper level trough just west of the Appalachians this morning will move into the area late today. becoming a cut-off low tonight. Kept temperatures near guidance consensus for the highs in the mid to upper 80s and lows tonight in the upper 60s and lower 70s.
657 AM EDT MON SEP 19 2016 A weakening cold front settles over the local today.
1029 PM PDT Sun Sep 18 2016 Unsettled weather is expected for the work week as a large area of low pressure slowly moves through the region. Look for breezy winds for the first part of the week, followed by cooler and showery weather.
221 AM EDT Mon Sep 19 2016 A cold front will slowly finish passing through the area overnight into Monday morning. High pressure behind the front will bring dry and warm weather for much of the rest of the week. Tonight, we expect skies to become mainly clear, as weak surface ridging builds in. Models in solid agreement on a quiet midweek period generally under high pressure, but with just a subtle weak dry cool front slipping through Tuesday night. Lack of cloud cover will lead to comfortably cool nights with lows mainly in the lower to mid 50s, which is near climatology if not a touch above.
Upstream surface observations have shown some improvement to visibilities as the high clouds work across, and expect similar trends here. Energy embedded within a longwave trough encompassing much of Canada will split early in the forecast period, with one large upper wave passing east across Ontario and Quebec, and another dropping into the Pacific Northwest. Improved mixing ahead of the front, mostly sunny skies, and H850 temps of 15-17C should provide a warm day with highs in the low to mid 80s.
259 AM EDT Mon Sep 19 2016 A cold front will slowly finish passing through the area today. High pressure behind the front will bring dry and warm weather for much of the rest of the week. Tonight, we expect skies to become mainly clear, as weak surface ridging builds in. Models in solid agreement on a quiet midweek period generally under high pressure, but with just a subtle weak dry cool front slipping through Tuesday night. Lack of cloud cover will lead to comfortably cool nights with lows mainly in the lower to mid 50s, which is near climatology if not a touch above.
A low pressure system will bring showers and cooler, more seasonable temperatures to the North Country late this week. Rain showers generally affecting the Adirondacks NEwd across the Champlain Valley and into the Northeast Kingdom will generally be light before exiting eastward during the day Monday as upper trough exits the region.
/issued 152 PM CST Sat Feb 18 2017/ Upper ridge over the area today will give way to approaching upper trough moving off the West Coast. This trough develops into a cut off low and by tomorrow centered near the 4 corners region.
KDRT will see a pre-frontal trof move through around 16z with a windshift to the NW and cigs will improve to VFR. A nice warm-up is ongoing this afternoon with temperatures in the lower to upper 80s. Drizzle to light rain and even a few moderate showers are expected mid-morning on Sunday as instability increases and the upper short- wave trough above mentioned travels across the four corners region.
636 PM EST Sat Feb 18 2017 A weak cold front will drop southward across the area this afternoon and evening and will stall out across the region tonight and dissipate.
Upper Low now drifting across PAH FA is pinwheeling scattered showers about the area, as seen on latest radar pics/loop. This will continue into the evening hours, then wind down/diminish, as the Low drifts off to the east. Tmrw should eventually see a scour out of clouds though, with sunshine and warmth returning as High pressure works in overhead at the surface and aloft. Look for a rebound into the lower 70s both Sun-Mon. Clouds increase again late Mon-Mon night as the ridge moves east and height falls work in from the west.
Most places should be in the lower to mid 30s by morning, but some upper 20s can't be ruled out.
435 PM CST Sat Feb 18 2017 Updated to match current temps across the southwest which are running warmer than forecast. This may spark some light rain/freezing rain across far north central North Dakota in the morning. As the main upper level trough moves into the plains Sunday night more widespread rain is expected.
1044 PM EST Sat Feb 18 2017 Under partly cloudy skies, temperatures are in the lower to mid 70s along the Florida Keys. Surface wise, a Western Atlantic ridge lies across our area with a trough lying across central Florida.
The upper level trough along the California coast will work slowly east across the Desert Southwest through Sunday.
Forecast winds from Burley to Pocatello were boosted to 10 to 15 mph with local 20 mph sustained winds on ridge tops and a few favored canyon areas.
Upper low has moved across MS river valley and eastward across TN, with low clouds slowly eroding across ne TX as trailing wk warm frontal boundary movg nwd. Increased se winds and deepening southerly flow will disrupt these conditions durg early mrng and with amplified short wave ridging ovhd, expect a rapid warmup Sunday with highs either side of 80 degrees for all but mainly OK/AR portions of area what may remain in the 70s. Deep upper trough will produce a well defined axis of mstr and instability running north to south, reaching extreme western CWA by eve, although a few stray cells possible out ahead of axis.
731 PM EST Sat Feb 18 2017 An upper level trough will approach from the west today and cross the southeastern U.
Satellite loops show the upper low responsible for the heavy winds and precipitation yesterday is now shifting inland over Baja CA. An East Pacific upper trough will steer a ~1.
BNA will be in the best shape owing to a dry slot being pulled into the upper low.
548 PM CST Sat Feb 18 2017 Temperatures were slightly cooler today than we had yesterday, especially where we have had mostly cloud cover. The upper level low which brought some light showers, mainly to the eastern Ozarks overnight and early this morning has shifted to the east of the area, but some cloud cover remains in place. Upper level ridging should begin to build into the area from the west later today and tonight.
729 PM EST Sat Feb 18 2017 A warm front will push further northwards this evening and will be followed by a secondary cold front on Sunday.
650 PM EST Sat Feb 18 2017 A weak cold front moving through Lower Michigan will exit to the south and east during early evening will no consequence other than giving a nudge to the record warmth. Light northwest wind will precede high pressure during Sunday with only a mix of high clouds through the day. It's more easily picked up on water vapor imagery as drier and cooler air aloft with more northwesterly flow advects into the region. Overall the longwave pattern changes little through Sunday as strong trough over the west coast keeps re-building and strengthening the ridge over the central plains.
Temperatures were slightly cooler today than we had yesterday, especially where we have had mostly cloud cover. The upper level low which brought some light showers, mainly to the eastern Ozarks overnight and early this morning has shifted to the east of the area, but some cloud cover remains in place. Upper level ridging should begin to build into the area from the west later today and tonight.
420 PM CST Sat Feb 18 2017 Upper low currently seen on WV imagery across NRN Baja will split into two pieces of energy as it approaches wrn Texas.
Nevertheless, the low clouds should break by late morning. /Issued 420 PM CST Sat Feb 18 2017/ Upper low currently seen on WV imagery across NRN Baja will split into two pieces of energy as it approaches wrn Texas.
Deep moisture resides across the Great Valley this evening in the circulation around a Lower Ohio Valley upper level low. Slow improvement will occur in the lower category flight weather on Sunday with a gradual return to vfr conditions as some drier air filters in behind the departing upper low.
A weakening low pressure system will continue to track eastward across southern Nevada, before exiting Sunday.
822 PM EST Sat Feb 18 2017 An upper level trough will exit the area late tonight and early Sunday.
Current forecast basically on track with a slow eastward shift of the Ohio Valley upper level trough.
An upper level low continued to spin eastward across the Missouri bootheel while a dry slot has pushed the warm conveyor belt precipitation well to the north and east.
705 PM EST Sat Feb 18 2017 Low pressure tracks along southern Canada, and into northern New England tonight, and then into the Canadian Maritimes Sunday into Sunday night. A cold front with the low passes through the region late tonight into Sunday morning. High pressure builds in behind the low Sunday night.
853 PM EST Sat Feb 18 2017 Low pressure tracks along southern Canada, and into northern New England tonight, and then into the Canadian Maritimes Sunday into Sunday night. A cold front with the low passes through the region late tonight into Sunday morning. High pressure builds in behind the low Sunday night.
526 PM EST Sat Feb 18 2017 A warm front will push further northwards this evening and will be followed by a secondary cold front on Sunday.
Bands of moderate to heavy rain developed in eastern Oregon and western Idaho this evening ahead of upper trough axis moving eastward across Oregon. Showers should decrease late tonight as the trough axis in Oregon passes through western Idaho.
406 PM MST Sat Feb 18 2017 A deep upper trough covers the west coast, with ridging over the northern plains. Warm air advection will continue Sunday in southwest flow ahead of the approaching western CONUS trough. As the trough moves through the region Sunday night, a cool front and showers will push into the area. Most of the precipitation is expected to be rain, but some light snow accumulations will be possible in the higher elevations.
Models have the center of the upper low over the northern Gulf of California at 00Z this afternoon. There is fairly strong southwesterly flow aloft over the CWA overnight into Sunday afternoon, then it decreases as the upper trough/ closed low moves our way. The upper low is moving slow and much of the more significant moisture with it is moving nearly due north, staying to our west. Will go with 30-60%s Sunday afternoon in the mountains because of the moisture and the upward energy associated with the nearing upper closed low. There will be no orographic help Sunday afternoon concerning snowfall/precipitation in the high country. For temperatures, Sunday's highs are 0-1 C warmer than this afternoon's.
Subtle warm front currently near the Red River will lift northward overnight providing a favored region for low cloudiness to develop. The upper ridge axis slides east by Sunday.
515 PM CST Sat Feb 18 2017 The primary feature of interest in the short term is a low- latitude trough which is evident in early-afternoon water vapor imagery over Baja. This upper-air system will continue east through the southern Rockies and northwest Mexico tonight into Sunday before phasing with a polar-branch disturbance over the High Plains Sunday night.
414 PM MST Sat Feb 18 2017 Upper low lifting into nrn AZ this afternoon, with deepening S-SW flow across much of CO. Overnight, upper low will move slowly northward through AZ, with moisture gradually increasing across srn CO. Clouds and increasing sly wind will lead to another mild night across the region, with many locations on the plains staying above freezing. On Sunday, upper low weakens and accelerates eastward from nrn AZ across CO, with remnant upper trough exiting the state early Mon morning.