Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
The cold front is finally beginning to push through the region, and should be through the entire area by sunrise. The low clouds remain, but the back edge is making decent southeastward progress and is just northwest of KSTL as of 09Z. This keeps lows on the warm end of guidance and warms temperatures above freezing over much of the area by sunrise. Temperatures across the southern half of the area are likely to be back above freezing when the precipitation moves in after 09Z, and the entire area should be above freezing by 15Z. If there is enough forcing to generate measurable precipitation, there will likely be enough warming in the low-levels for melting to occur. Then it is just a matter of what the surface temperature is to determine rain versus freezing rain.
A warm front extended northeast through most of the panhandle and southwest Nebraska, with mid clouds near 11k feet across the southern panhandle and southwest. Highs from the upper 20s to near 30 will occur near 17z-18z across far northern Nebraska and the lower to mid 40s near 21z in the south. Behind the arctic front, a few flurries may occur late this afternoon, mainly across the Pine Ridge. The lower levels will be drier with the better chances for a few flurries most areas from northwest to southeast as the night progresses.
/issued 908 PM CST Sun Dec 11 2016/ Skies are cloudy across the forecast area with temperatures ranging from the lower 40s to around 60 degrees. A cold front has made its way into northern sections of the forecast area with widespread light rain showers found ahead of the front. Chances for light rain or drizzle will continue Monday night and into Tuesday across north Mississippi as the front slows and moisture continues to stream over the Lower Mississippi Valley. with cloud cover keeping lows generally above freezing.
A cold front will move through the FA today, with the strongest short wave energy remaining to the north and south.
High pressure will continue to weaken in the western north Atlantic over the next few days with an extension westward across the state of Florida.
258 AM EST Mon Dec 12 2016 Isolated light showers will end from south to north overnight as an inverted trough moves northward. Broad upper troughing over the middle of the nation today will slide slowly eastward tonight. A cold front will enter northern Georgia today and then stall near southeast Georgia overnight tonight. Showers from the inverted trough will end this morning.
/issued 221 PM CST Sun Dec 11 2016/ Cold front was arriving on time in pseudo-backdoor fashion late this afternoon and was just about bisecting the CWA from northwest to southeast as of 20Z. Latest guidance offerings came in a few degrees cooler for Monday max temperatures ranging from lower 60s west to mid 50s east.
419 AM EST Mon Dec 12 2016 High pressure along the Mid-Atlantic coast will move out to sea today as a cold front approaches from the Mississippi valley. The front will move back north as a warm front Tuesday.
High pressure will continue to bring dry and warm weather through Tuesday.
311 PM CDT MON SEP 19 2016 Continued dry conditions through Tuesday as high pressure remains over the region. Plenty of warm air advection through the night and into Tuesday will allow temperatures to remain warmer than average. Any cloud cover could potentially limit the amount of heating these locations will see and therefore lower the high temperatures.
326 PM EDT MON SEP 19 2016 A warm afternoon as temperatures have climbed into the lower 80s, but dew pts are not terribly high, predominately in the upper 50s. Mainly dry cold front to slowly sink south through southeast Michigan Tonight/Tomorrow morning as upper wave lifts northeast into Ontario, with zero height falls extending south of over southern Lower Michigan. Narrowing/pinched off 850-700 mb Theta-e ridge axis extending from the midwest, with showalter index telling the tale, going from slightly negative this afternoon over northern lower Michigan, to decidedly positive as the front sinks south overnight.
Low temps tonight in the lower 70s inland. Upper low moves slowly eastward over eastern part of southeastern states Tuesday.
This evening these should gradually diminish as a weak ridge builds into the area and allows us to decouple from the higher winds that will remain aloft. Cooler than normal, but not by very much. An area of low pressure will get organized over western Nebraska Tuesday night with a warm front into southern Minnesota.
Today should be pretty uneventful as an upper level ridge continues building over the region. Winds will overall be out of the south to southwest as a lee trough develops and should stay around the 10-15 mph range.
but fall into the low to mid 40s in the north. Persistent warm frontal boundary will lurk south of the forecast area during Wed/Thu with pcpn shield stretching toward the extreme southern portion of the region.
128 PM EDT Mon Sep 19 2016 Building high pressure will result in dry conditions through the week, Building high pressure has taken control with dry conditions expected the remainder of the day. Continued improvement to VFR is expected this afternoon with mixing lifting cloud bases, and high pressure slowly builds in.
141 PM EDT MON SEP 19 2016 A deep plume of moisture with its origin over the central Gulf of Mexico will be responsible for numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms ahead of a wave of low pressure and slow moving cold front. A large ridge to our southwest will slow provide above normal heights and temperatures to the region. Most of the week will be dominated by this ridge. Satellite imagery is generally clear behind (on the cold side) the low-level potential temperature boundary draped across north- central PA.
Weak pressures will be in place across the area through Tuesday as weak ridging remains in place to the south and a weak trough settles into north FL. Temps will be in the lower to mid 70s inland and mid to upper 70s near the coast tonight, with highs Tuesday in the upper 80s near the coast to the lower 90s inland.
339 PM EDT Mon Sep 19 2016 High pressure will linger over the Ohio Valley through the work week. Surface analysis shows 1019 mb high pressure centered to the southwest. The high is aligned along the axis of a building upper level ridge pointing towards Dayton. As the high translates slowly northeast across the area tonight, the dry airmass and downward motion evident with the high will prevent precip from occurring. High pressure will continue to travel gradually northeast across the Great Lakes to New England, riding a westerly upper flow on the northern fringe of a broad ridge aloft.
Upper ridge will amplify slightly into the nrn plains behind the departing short wave. Upper low deepens over Pacific NW Wed and Thurs, with southwest flow over the western U.
201 PM CDT MON SEP 19 2016 06Z surface data has a cold front running from northern Minnesota, into southeast South Dakota, and then across northern Nebraska. Based on projected temperatures/dew points, convection should initiate sometime between 2 and 5 PM along the cold front. However, data through 08z does not show this low having developed across Nebraska. This low is important in regards to the overall threat for any isolated tornadoes. Tonight, the cold front moves through the area.
A short wave will continue to swing around the E and SE periphery of the high pressure aloft through tonight. The models fcst slightly lower sfc dewpoints to move into the CWA from the NE through Tue night resulting in slightly cooler MN Temps and negating fog chances.
Area surface observations indicate that a ridge of high pressure is in place over Arkansas. This ridge axis was oriented from southwest to northeast across the state with light southerly flow found to the northwest of the axis. Fog may become less likely as we get further into the week as strong daytime heating and persistent subsidence associated with high pressure over the state will cause the air to slowly dry out through the week. An upper level ridge of high pressure to the west of the state will expand over the next few days.
321 PM CDT Mon Sep 19 2016 1) Only weather concern in the short term will be focused in northeast Missouri as a cold front, currently located over central Iowa, slides south this evening into tonight.
Tomorrow looks quite similar to today, as upper ridging remains in control. Upper level ridging will continue to dominate through the end of the workweek.
The fog burned off by 9 am but the low clouds have been slow to dissolve in many areas. An upper level trof has pushed east of Alabama this morning. North sfc winds behind the trof will prevail thru period.
Latest models runs continue to show dominant H5/H7 ridge over the southern half of the country. some amplification of these ridges will occur into the Central Plains. but the jog northward of the upper ridge will enhance WAA into the region keeping low 90s forecasted in line.
Showers/storms will wind down late this evening in the southeast, with dry weather overnight as high pressure quickly moves in. It should be a very nice day Tuesday, with mostly sunny skies expected under high pressure.
By the end of the day high temps should be a few degrees cooler in most areas. ***From previous discussion*** On Tuesday the upper low will open up and move over and through the state. Hgts will fall and there will be better onshore flow so look for cooler temps with most areas coming in right at normals.
101 PM CDT MON SEP 19 2016 Weak high pressure and rising mid level heights will keep conditions dry through mid week.
135 PM EDT MON SEP 19 2016 High pressure will linger over the region today and tonight. A weak cold front will cross the region on early Tuesday. High pressure will return for midweek. The NAM shows an upper trough from Western Ohio south to MS/AL supporting clouds across Eastern Ohio and NWRN PA. high pressure was to our west. Expecting eastern/southeastern counties to clear this morning as the high builds in. Cold front on track to move into the area Tuesday.
Upper level ridge and dry atmosphere remain over the Mid-State into late week, with gradual warming in maximum temperatures each day.
/issued 833 AM EDT MON SEP 19 2016/ With low pressure off the Carolina coast, the flow, while weak, will try to favor a westerly direction, off the surface. As reflected in the grids, this region should have the highest chance of precip today. Waterspout potential over the coastal waters will be slightly elevated due to the light wind profile and steeper lapse rates in the lower levels. Otherwise, relatively warm 500 mb temps and high freezing levels will limit the main storm hazards to frequent cloud to ground lightning and brief wind gusts 35- 45 mph.
High pressure will build into the area by the weekend with drier conditions.
Upper level high pressure is building across the region from the west. Lower humidities with dewpoints in the lower 60s over the next couple of days will allow for some cooling at night. Upper level high pressure remains over the area. The ECMWF is a little stronger with the ridge while the GFS tries to retrograde it to the west a little sooner.
335 PM MDT MON SEP 19 2016 Mostly sunny skies will prevail for the remainder of the day as high pressure remains in control with dry conditions.
That is the result of a building upper level high that will remain over Texas this week. The high center will be directly over the CWA today with strong subsidence causing highs to be the hottest of the week. The high center then shifts to our east (over central Texas) as an upper level low drops south along the west coast and slowly moves east.
Low pressure aloft will move across the area on Tuesday afternoon, then another wave will arrive from the southwest late Tuesday night. This will bring a threat for thunderstorms as the low level jet focuses on parts of northwest Iowa and southwest Minnesota. The better chances through the night will likely remain north and east of the Buffalo Ridge which is on the east edge of the stronger cap aloft.
r Upper ridging is expected to maintain across the southern Plains through Tue. There is good agreement between the ECMWF and GFS that a sharp upper trough will dig across the Central Great Basin Thu into Thu night. Normal highs for this time of year are in the low 80s. In addition, both the GFS and ECMWF retrograde the closed low slightly for the end of the weekend into the start of the work week. At this time, the best chances for rain through this forecast package look to be Sat night through Sun night, when upper diffluence from the closed upper low may impact our forecast area.
A subtropical ridge prevailed across the Southern Plains with a subtropical low nearly stationary off the coast of Southern California. The net result of all these features on the lower troposphere was a generally weak surface flow pattern across southwest Kansas. The low level thermodynamics will be essentially the same, so we should see highs around the mid 90s for most locations once again. Until then, the southwest Kansas region will remain in a warm and windy pattern, as a leeside trough continues to prevail with fairly high southwest flow mid tropospheric heights across the Western Plains.
649 PM EDT MON SEP 19 2016 A cold front will progress eastward, reaching the coast tonight before drifting out to sea.
Lows tonight down near the coast in the lower 70s. low temps will likewise be cooler than recently. with highs across the area in the lower 90s inland and upper 80s at the coast.
Continued warm temperatures remain in store Tuesday as the upper ridge continues. Highs again are expected in the mid 90s, after morning lows in the lower 70s.
An area of showers, associated with some upper level short wave energy within a broad upper trough ahead of an approaching cold front, was making its way across northern Wisconsin today. Another area of storms developed ahead of the cold front in western Wisconsin and these storms were moving east this afternoon, toward central and east central Wisconsin. High pressure moving into the region should keep the area dry with few clouds and above normal temperatures overnight through Tuesday. Tuesday Night Through Monday After a dry evening on Tuesday, an 850 mb warm front and associated WAA will shift toward central WI, causing showers and tstms to develop over mainly central and east central WI.
318 PM CDT MON SEP 19 2016 A warm front will develop across the southern and western portions of the CWA overnight with a low level jet setting up just to our south. 850mb winds are initially close to 40kts, however by the time we see mixing, the core of strongest winds will have moved east and generally will see light winds as low pressure moves just north of I90. When the period opens Tuesday night, there is expected to be a warm front south of the cwa.
638 PM EDT MON SEP 19 2016 Aviation A weak cold front will bring scattered showers and thunderstorms to areas north of I-96 tonight, and only isolated precipitation to areas along and south of I-96.
/issued 412 PM EDT Mon Sep 19 2016/ High pressure will continue to prevail at the surface and aloft over the region for the next several days resulting in a typical late summertime and early fall weather pattern. Typical late summer/early fall weather pattern continues for South High pressure will continue to prevail across the region both at the surface and aloft. A longwave trough digging into the southeast CONUS is still forecast to close off into an upper-level low as the trough absorbs the remnants of Julia.
347 PM EDT MON SEP 19 2016 The cold front sagging across the State today should dry the region out this evening. A building ridge to our south and west will push above normal 500 mb heights and 850 mb temperatures into our region for the remainder of the work week. A back door cold front the west should provide some more seasonable temperatures for part of the weekend. Satellite imagery is generally clear behind (on the cold side) the low-level potential temperature boundary draped across north- central PA.
412 PM EDT Mon Sep 19 2016 High pressure will continue to prevail at the surface and aloft over the region for the next several days resulting in a typical late summertime and early fall weather pattern. Typical late summer/early fall weather pattern continues for South High pressure will continue to prevail across the region both at the surface and aloft. A longwave trough digging into the southeast CONUS is still forecast to close off into an upper-level low as the trough absorbs the remnants of Julia.
632 PM EDT MON SEP 19 2016 A weak cold front will merge with a trough off the southeast coast tonight. This trough will linger near the coast through much of the week and a chance of showers and thunderstorms will continue. As of early this evening, water vapor imagery depicts the axis of an upper level trough approaching from the west. Meanwhile, the low level circulation associated with the remnants of former tropical cyclone Julia lingers off the Cape Fear coast and a surface front/trough extending out along the back side of the low is making southward progress through the northern and eastern Midlands. As the night progresses, the upper trough will develop into a cut-off low and linger over the region.
The heat is caused by a 594 dm height ridge at 500 mb centered just to our west. The ridge is expected to continue to be in place across the southern plains through the short-term. The ridge is expected to shift a bit to the north tomorrow which could open the southeastern counties to some isolated shower activity. Some of the high-res model guidance is showing some showers moving in from the east within the easterly flow for the extreme southeastern CWA. Tuesday night should be quiet with lows in the lower to middle 70s.
205 PM EDT MON SEP 19 2016 A weakening cold front will drop through southern Michigan overnight. Upstream surface observations have shown some improvement to visibilities as the high clouds work across, and expect similar trends here. Energy embedded within a longwave trough encompassing much of Canada will split early in the forecast period, with one large upper wave passing east across Ontario and Quebec, and another dropping into the Pacific Northwest. Improved mixing ahead of the front, mostly sunny skies, and H850 temps of 15-17C should provide a warm day with highs in the low to mid 80s.
This high will strengthen as it departs to the E tonight. Lee cyclogenesis will begin tomorrow over WY with a warm front forming to the E across SD/MN.
624 PM EDT Mon Sep 19 2016 High pressure will result in dry and warm conditions through the week.
603 PM EDT MON SEP 19 2016 High pressure will linger over the region tonight. A weak cold front will cross the region early Tuesday. High pressure will return for the second half of the work week. There may be a slight increase in clouds toward daybreak in the north as a weakening cold front approaches. The weakening cold front will cross the local area tomorrow. After that high pressure will dominate through the end of the period.
SHORT TERM (Today through Tuesday): A broad 500mb ridge centered over the Texas Big Bend and extending overhead will remain nearly in place through the forecast period.
/issued 346 AM CDT MON SEP 19 2016/ (Today and Tonight) An upper level ridge is forecast to become centered across West Texas today, with a relative weakness across West Central Texas. This weakness in the ridge is being picked up by most of the models, including most of the high resolution models (HRRR/NMM/ARW), which indicate the development of isolated showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and into the early evening hours. High temperatures today will be well above seasonal normals, mainly in the low to mid 90s although a few locations may approach the upper 90s. Overnight lows will generally be in the lower 70s, which is 5 to 10 degrees above seasonal normals.
Meanwhile, a large scale anticyclone is currently located over northern Mexico and should build northeast towards the Southeast over the coming days. 77 The building ridge and continued drying of the boundary layer should result in a dry and cooler conditions for tonight. With the more pronounced radiational cooling, overnight lows should drop nicely into the low 60s by early tomorrow morning.
Flattened ridging will make for mostly clear skies, and near seasonal temperatures tonight into Tuesday. Late Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night a low pressure system over the pacific northwest will begin to advect moisture along a quasi-stationary boundary over northeast Montana.
Low pressure and associated cold front moving east into the great Lakes region. For today, height rises occur in response to a deepening upper level low per water vapor imagery just off the coast of Vancouver island. Broad ridging and associated subsidence dominates resulting in plenty of sunshine and somewhat breezy westerly winds this afternoon/15 to 25 mph most areas. Highs will mostly be in the lower 70s, with some upper 60s across the north and northwest.
Lows tonight will generally be 5 to 10 degrees above average although some of the high mountain valleys could see cooler than average readings due to strong radiational cooling.
May end up tweaking up temperatures in the west as we are getting a little warmer than current forecast. A cold front will continue east clearing the Northland this morning. We limited the mention to just chance at this time, but some of the high resolution models show the showers more widespread and later updates may have to increase. Weak high pressure will lead to mostly clear skies tonight with lows into the forties with a few upper thirties possible. The west coast long wave trof will be the focus for our weather the next 7 days.
The upper trof has shifted off into Georgia but there appears to be some weak lift still on the west side of the trof axis.
122 PM EDT Mon Sep 19 2016 High pressure will bring dry weather and above normal temperatures this week. Otherwise, with high pressure moving in from the west, drier and sunnier conditions are expected for the rest of the day (and for the whole day in the western half of the forecast area). Previous discussion > Pcpn has ended as a H5 trof has pushed PVA into West Virginia. The boundary that the convection formed on will continue to weaken as a high pressure ridge builds into the region. With the sunshine, temperatures will warm to above normal with highs in the lower 80s.
150 PM EDT MON SEP 19 2016 The cold front sagging across the State today should dry the region out this evening. A building ridge to our south and west will push above normal 500 mb heights and 850 mb temperatures into our region for the remainder of the work week. A back door cold front the west should provide some more seasonable temperatures for part of the weekend. Satellite imagery is generally clear behind (on the cold side) the low-level potential temperature boundary draped across north- central PA.
Models show upper ridge affecting at least parts of the area throughout the week. Meanwhile, a long wave trough will move into and across portions of the Western U. Models continue to slow this system down and now show a cut-off low developing over the Southwest U.
Subtropical Ridge sets up over Texas bringing decreasing moisture levels and increased subsidence and capping to inhibit convective development.
244 PM CDT MON SEP 19 2016 Clear skies were in place across most of the region this afternoon, indicative of the subsidence occurring underneath a 500 HPa ridge that was centered over El Paso on the 12Z upper-air analysis. The ridge has slowly been shifting northeast with time and will continue to do so through tomorrow. The center of the ridge should have shifted to over North Texas and Oklahoma by tomorrow afternoon which will allow a plume of mid-level moisture being thrown off of Hurricane Paine in the Pacific to push closer to the region. The Rolling Plains will see more sunshine and with the proximity to the center of the ridge, subsidence and abundant insolation could bump highs back into the mid to upper 90s.