Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Subsidence beneath a mid-level ridge of high pressure directly overhead, and dry air wrapping southward around an easterly wave disturbance over GA/FL today have lowered PWAT values across most of our area to an inch or below. Although an increase in high clouds over parts of the area may slightly limit the radiational cooling overnight, blended in some persistence from this morning's observations as dew points have fallen into the lower and mid 60s this afternoon.
1243 PM EDT Thu Sep 1 2022 Aviation weather remains fully influenced by high pressure as it drifts into the eastern Great Lakes today. Lower MI then becomes sandwiched between the exiting high pressure and the next cold front across the upper Midwest tonight and Friday.
This feature has flattened the upper ridge which will result in temperatures not as hot as yesterday, though still 10-15 degrees above normal.
High pressure will strengthen tonight as the center proceeds from the upper Ohio Valley to New England, but continues to ridge southwestward to the Tennessee Valley. In our position behind the center of the high and with cirrus streaming overhead, tonight will be a few degrees warmer than last night. A broad 5H trough will be approaching from the west and a small speed max will eject from the lower Mississippi Valley into the lower Ohio Valley.
723 PM EDT Thu Sep 1 2022 High pressure moving east will provide dry weather through Friday. A humid southerly flow is forecast to develop behind the high this Labor Day Weekend, bringing the threat for showers and thunderstorms. A slight chance of showers or a thunderstorm will present itself overnight as flow turns southerly, dewpoints linger in the mid 60s, and an upper trough to the west has energy translate through the southwest flow ahead of it in our area. The start of the period features a weak 500mb trough moving through the Ohio Valley, with the more robust trough base rounding through Ontario into Quebec.
Otherwise, a humid night is in store with temperatures in the low to mid 70s.
High pressure situated over the upper Ohio Valley will continue to dominate the weather over central IL tonight with dry weather. A light SE breeze will be prevalent as pressure gradients gradually establish between the outgoing high and low pressure approaching from the Plains. 18z surface map indicated high pressure pushing just east of the area, with south to southwest winds developing on the back side of the ridge. Aloft, an upper level trough was located over the central Plains associated with scattered showers/storms, and cirrus east of this feature was spilling into the area. Quiet, status-quo weather continues overnight and Friday as the high pushes farther east, and the upper low slowly drifts across MO. The stronger upper level jet is displaced well north over Canada this weekend, forcing the weak upper low to wobble northeast in light flow aloft.
611 PM EDT Thu Sep 1 2022 Seasonable temperatures and dry conditions will give way to increasing precipitation chances and above average temperature through the weekend ahead of the next low pressure system. Warm advection will be late to initiate during the overnight period as high pressure slides east.
Lows will be in the low to mid 70s. Atlantic ridge axis lifting northward across the area tonight will back winds from the south to southeast, with speeds remaining relatively light around 5 to 10 knots.
625 PM CDT Thu Sep 1 2022 (This afternoon through Friday night) A breakdown in the upper ridge is over West Texas and Southeast New Mexico. This same general upper pattern will continue through Friday with an upper ridge building over the western part of the country. Temperatures will likely warm up some on Friday with highs mostly in the 80s with 70s across most of the higher terrain.
BW (This evening through Friday) In the upper levels, a ridge will be over the Southeast and Mid- Atlantic. A trough will move into the Mississippi Valley on Friday. At the surface, high pressure will be over the Eastern U. Showers and storms may be more scattered south of I-40 where the highest dew points are expected. A weak upper trough will continue to slowly move east as the weekend progresses.
718 PM EDT Thu Sep 1 2022 Dry weather through tomorrow as high pressure remains in control. We are expecting mostly clear and calm conditions again tonight as high pressure remains in control of the weather pattern. Lows may be a few degrees warmer than last night, but still expecting most places to get down into the 50s, with some 40s possible in the high valleys and ridgetops in the NE part of the CWA. As high pressure begins to shift off to the east tomorrow, winds will remain light but turn SE-S'ly, allowing warmer air and gradually increasing humidity into the area. The high pressure and upper ridging should remain close enough to the area tomorrow to help suppress any precip chances to our south and west.
Strong high pressure over the Great Basin will bring mainly fair weather with hot and dry conditions for the end of the work week and the holiday weekend. Main story for the short term continues to be the expansive ridge of high pressure over the western United States. By Friday and Friday night, the upper ridge is expected to intensify slightly and shift to the east, with a center of circulation over Utah.
Upper level ridge has built in over the west and that has cut off onshore flow. Current temperatures are running 4 to 10 warmer than this time yesterday and we should see afternoon highs top out between 97 to 108 in the Valley and foothills. A weak trough will then push into the PacNW Friday and ensemble has shifted this a bit further south and slowed it a bit.
Storms are expected to form near the consolidating low pressure center/vort max as it tracks northeast across the region. Lacy (Tomorrow through Thursday) The aforementioned trough axis will continue a slow eastward progression Friday with widespread showers and scattered storms across far E OK and NW AR.
A strong high pressure system over the western United States will remain in place through the Labor Day weekend.
High pressure will remain over the area for another day before shifting eastward late Friday.
946 PM EDT Thu Sep 1 2022 High pressure moving east will provide dry weather through Friday. A humid southerly flow is forecast to develop behind the high this Labor Day Weekend, bringing the threat for showers and thunderstorms. A slight chance of showers or a thunderstorm will present itself overnight as flow turns southerly, dewpoints linger in the mid 60s, and an upper trough to the west has energy translate through the southwest flow ahead of it in our area. The start of the period features a weak 500mb trough moving through the Ohio Valley, with the more robust trough base rounding through Ontario into Quebec.
With the cold front approaching, expect high dewpoints to pool into our area and it will feel warm and muggy despite the breezy southerly winds. Still a warm and humid day on Fri with the cold frontal passage approaching from the north for late Fri nt.
As the mid/upper trof lingers over the Southern Plains tomorrow, the associated frontal boundary is also forecast to remain in the region (with only a slow S/SW motion).
Key Points: - Another warm day today with temperatures reaching the low 90s. - A weak cold front will move through the area Friday evening and bring chances for rain and thunderstorms. Another upper-level ridge in central Canada was noted moving southeast towards the Great Lakes region. By Friday, the aforementioned upper-low in Canada will bring a trough axis into the central Plains by Friday evening and usher in a weak cold front in the evening. Moisture advection ahead of the frontal boundary will be noticeable as dewpoints will increase to around 70 degrees as high temperatures reach the low 90s again.
Cold front continues to approach the region this evening, along with associated clouds and showers/thunder. Main question for the period is if we will see any precip reaching the ground tonight as the cold front passes through. Even more quiet for tomorrow into tomorrow night, as the cold front pushes the rest of the way through the CWA and high pressure builds in behind it. Dew points will be lower tomorrow but temps also cooler, although still seasonable in the 70s. Minimal impacts this weekend and into the coming work week, thanks to a ridge set firmly to our west. A stacked ridge is firmly planted to our west, leaving us with northwesterly flow. If RH can drop a bit more into the low 30s and upper 20 percents, we could see some near- critical fire weather conditions.
Convection now firing up across the northern high country as expected, the question remains does any develop far enough south on the rim to move southwest across the far northern part of the forecast area and will any storms that develop hold together over the lower elevations.
807 PM EDT Thu Sep 1 2022 A weakening cold front will move through the region tonight then will stall south of the area. Aloft high pressure located to the northeast of the region will prevail through the weekend while a series of upper level disturbances ripple through the region. Overnight lows will be in the low 70s inland with mid 70s closer to the coastline. Aloft a low pressure center and trough looks to form in the vicinity of the Mid-Atlantic states but models do not agree on the placement of these features. Near term guidance indicates that a H5 trough or low will deepen over SE GA, then drift inland.
724 PM EDT Thu Sep 1 2022 (This evening through Friday) In the upper levels, a ridge will be over the Southeast and Mid- Atlantic. A trough will move into the Mississippi Valley on Friday. At the surface, high pressure will be over the Eastern U. Showers and storms may be more scattered south of I-40 where the highest dew points are expected. A weak upper trough will continue to slowly move east as the weekend progresses.
This wave is sandwiched between a strong subtropical ridge over the western CONUS and the Bermuda High extending into the Carolinas. As the aforementioned trough inches eastward tomorrow, we'll see increasing forcing for ascent across portions of the CWA.
542 PM EDT Thu Sep 1 2022 High pressure moving east will provide dry weather through Friday. A humid southerly flow is forecast to develop behind the high this Labor Day Weekend, bringing the threat for showers and thunderstorms. A slight chance of showers or a thunderstorm will present itself overnight as flow turns southerly, dewpoints linger in the mid 60s, and an upper trough to the west has energy translate through the southwest flow ahead of it in our area. The start of the period features a weak 500mb trough moving through the Ohio Valley, with the more robust trough base rounding through Ontario into Quebec.
901 PM EDT Thu Sep 1 2022 High pressure will dominate the region through the end of the week. Will see high pressure move from the Mid-Atlantic to the northeast through Friday. Upper energy resides over the lower Missouri Valley and a weakness aloft over southern Georgia, so showers should be well south of us tomorrow afternoon. As high pressure departs further offshore on Friday night, the tranquil weather from the past couple days will come to an end. This increasing upslope flow will allow moisture convergence across the Blue Ridge.
(Rest of tonight) Southwesterly flow in the mid-levels will become established across the local forecast area overnight, downstream from a developing mid-level trough extending from eastern NE/western IA south-southwestward into southern OK. However, the presence of a weak cutoff upper low across southern GA will initially limit the return of moisture aloft, and for this reason we expect dry conditions to persist for the majority of the region. As the effective warm front begins to shift northwestward, we expect an increase in low stratus clouds and perhaps a few light showers closer to sunrise, and this should tend to stabilize temperatures.
Upper level ridging will build northward across the Rockies through Friday. A cold front will surge southward through the area Friday as this occurs.
Upper ridging continues across the western CONUS, centered across the Great Basin. A weak cold front will push through tonight, bringing cooler temps the next two days, but still above seasonal averages.
649 PM EDT Thu Sep 1 2022 High pressure will maintain its dominance across the Se Mi terminals through the TAF period. The high will become more focused across the eastern Great Lakes tonight. Full sunshine today (outside of limited cloud development at press time) has pushed temperatures into the low to mid 80s this afternoon. As the upper level low/trough moves into Quebec the deep moisture axis (PW values >1.
Upper ridge remains anchored over the Great Basin and extends over the entire interior western US. A weak trough rounding the northern part of the ridge brought slight cooling today. Friday will be hotter again as the ridge rebuilds.
704 PM CDT Thu Sep 1 2022 - Scattered storms Friday, a few could be briefly strong - Great weather for the holiday weekend Quiet weather continues tonight and into Friday morning ahead of a weak cold front that will sweep through the area Friday afternoon. For tonight, southerly surface winds will keep temperatures quite a bit warmer than the past two nights with lows in the middle to upper 60s, and possibly not dropping out of the lower 70s across parts of the Twin Cities metro. The highest chances appear to be from southeastern MN into west central WI during the 7 pm to 11 pm timeframe.
75 inches over the lower half of the Keys, with estimates near 1. Some of the higher moisture could be from leftover cloudiness and moisture from a few afternoon thunderstorms offshore Key Largo. Interestingly the Key West sounding, although showing a slight 500 mb height rise at 500 mb to 589 Dm, showed cooler temperatures near minus-7. More noticeable in the overnight forecast, is the expected repair of the near-surface ridging after mainland peninsular cooling should cause winds to back, become easterly, and pick up to 5 to 10 mph, and mostly near 10 knots over the coastal waters. Continuing from synopsis, high pressure over the western North Atlantic will continue to maintain its foothold over the area, resulting in gentle to occasionally moderate easterly breezes across the coastal waters of the Florida Keys for the next several days.
/issued 309 PM CDT Thu Sep 1 2022/ The first day of meteorological fall has been met with quite pleasant conditions, but the lower humidity and dry weather begins to wrap up today. A warm front in south Mississippi will begin lifting north tonight, increasing humidity, temperatures, and rain chances across the Mid-South starting tomorrow.
134 AM EDT Fri Sep 2 2022 Dry weather through early Saturday as high pressure remains in control. We are expecting mostly clear and calm conditions again tonight as high pressure remains in control of the weather pattern. Lows may be a few degrees warmer than last night, but still expecting most places to get down into the 50s, with some 40s possible in the high valleys and ridgetops in the NE part of the CWA. As high pressure begins to shift off to the east tomorrow, winds will remain light but turn SE-S'ly, allowing warmer air and gradually increasing humidity into the area. The high pressure and upper ridging should remain close enough to the area tomorrow to help suppress any precip chances to our south and west.
Then, the ridge builds back into Montana on Saturday with hot temperatures near 100 returning to the forecast area.
High pressure and dry conditions will remain in place through the evening hours tonight before a mid/upper-level trough sweeps across northern Ontario Friday. An attendant surface cold front will accompany the trough and sweep through the Northland, leading to increasing chances of showers and thunderstorms, especially during the Friday afternoon and evening hours. With this said, the Storm Prediction Center continues to outline areas along and south of a line from Bayfield to Hertel in a Marginal (1 out of 5) risk of severe weather, which seems appropriate given the low-end shear and low to moderate instability. Temperatures on Saturday will be cooler in the wake of the front, along with northeasterly on-shore flow. Highs Saturday will be in the lower 60s near Lake Superior to the upper 60s/lower 70s farther inland.
Today Through Saturday Night An upper ridge continues over the western U. with an upper trough over the middle of the country. This trough will move slowly through Arkansas today through Saturday night. By Saturday, the ridge in the west will stretch into the Plains. The upper trough will provide the lift needed for showers and thunderstorms today through Saturday. With abundant cloud cover, temperatures will be cooler. Highs today will be in the mid 70s to lower 90s and in the lower 80s to around 90 Saturday. Lows tonight and Saturday night will be in the mid 60s to the lower 70s.
The first system is a vertically-stacked, weak area of low pressure located across NW AR. The additional cloud cover will keep high temperatures in the lower 80s there. Tonight, PoPs will gradually increase from slgt chc to chc from west to east as an H5 trough settles over the forecast area while a trof axis moves from the Mid-South into the TN River Valley. Low temperatures tonight will be warmer, in the middle to upper 60s.
Thus, the highest rain chances (generally 50-60 PoP) will be focused over the interior, or near and west of the Orlando metro.
1142 PM EDT Thu Sep 1 2022 High pressure will maintain its dominance across the Se Mi terminals through the TAF period. With the high more focused across the eastern Great Lakes, a stronger southerly gradient will develop over the region. Full sunshine today (outside of limited cloud development at press time) has pushed temperatures into the low to mid 80s this afternoon. As the upper level low/trough moves into Quebec the deep moisture axis (PW values >1.
The first is an upper low trudging through southwest Missouri. The second system is a weak vorticity maximum rounding the strong ridge over the western states. This will push a weak cold front into our area this evening, moving southward from Nebraska. Afternoon temperatures ahead of the front will warm into the low/mid 90s, given plenty of sun and the aforementioned deep mixing.
Cooler and drier air will move in behind this front which will allow temperatures to fall into the lower to mid 50s for most locations.
Some of the higher rainfall totals overnight have occurred over far eastern Pawnee and southeast Osage counties with widespread 2 to 3 inches with locally 5 inches southeast of Cleveland.
1259 AM CDT Fri Sep 2 2022 An upper trough will continue to move slowly across the area today and tonight. An upper level trof is located over the Great Plains this afternoon, resulting in scattered thunderstorms over north Texas and portions of Oklahoma, and some of this activity has spilled over into western Arkansas. The trof will continue moving eastward across Arkansas thru tomorrow, bringing increasing rain chances from west to east across the state. The increased cloud cover and rain chances will keep temperatures on the lower side tomorrow, with portions of northern Arkansas topping out in the 70's, with 80's elsewhere.
Early morning water vapor satellite imagery and RAP upper air analysis depict a ~594-dm cut-off ridge centered over the Intermountain West, and weak longwave troughing east of the Rockies.
Upper-level ridging will begin to shift eastward as a weak upper-level trough over the Great Plains slowly approaches the Mississippi River Valley. With upper ridging retreating from the region, rain chances will be on the increase throughout the near term. Lows will generally be in the low 70s, with mid to upper 70s along the coast.
High pressure is sliding off to the east as a trough is developing in the Plains. By Friday, the trough will be over the mid MS River Valley, and allow for southerly flow to bring heat and moisture back to the region. The upper trough/closed low will stall a bit over southern IL and keep the southerly flow Friday night into Saturday morning. So, we will lose diurnal support, but with the low nearby, some showers and storms may linger in the evening and even during the overnight hours into Saturday morning.
1224 AM EDT Fri Sep 2 2022 High pressure builds in through Friday, then begins to move east Saturday.
A pre-frontal trof and extreme heat helped kick off a few thunderstorms this evening. For tonight into Friday morning, a number of the latest CAMs develop a few showers and perhaps a weak storm (HREF mean MUCAPE of ~500 J/kg) across northeastern SD and west central MN tonight into Friday morning, in response to an incoming cold front. The cold front will track across the CWA from northwest to southeast through the morning. Opted against a fire weather headline at this time, as the strongest winds are offset from the lowest RH in terms of timing. High pressure builds in Friday evening, leading to lessening winds, clear skies and relatively cool overnight lows in the upper 40s to low 50s. Upper ridging will dominate the pattern over the holiday weekend and into the upcoming work week.
236 AM EDT Fri Sep 2 2022 High pressure will exit off to our east today with southerly flow bringing in a warmer and more humid airmass for the Labor Day weekend.
139 AM EDT Fri Sep 2 2022 A weakening cold front will move through the region tonight then will stall south of the area. Aloft high pressure located to the northeast of the region will prevail through the weekend while a series of upper level disturbances ripple through the region. Overnight lows will be in the low 70s inland with mid 70s closer to the coastline. Aloft a low pressure center and trough looks to form in the vicinity of the Mid-Atlantic states but models do not agree on the placement of these features.
1256 AM EDT Fri Sep 2 2022 Seasonable temperatures and dry conditions will give way to increasing precipitation chances and above average temperature through the weekend ahead of the next low pressure system. High pressure remains in control today.
Despite plenty of mid and high clouds streaming over the area, we have already climbed to the lower to mid 80s as of 1 PM, and will likely top out in the mid to upper 80s. Dewpoints in the lower 60s are widespread, keeping us from feeling too hot and humid out there. Cloud cover should increase tonight, as a weak upper trof north of the cut off low moves toward the region. The cloud cover will be helping keep our overnight temperatures quite a bit warmer tonight, with mid to upper 60s lows anticipated, as winds don't quite get calm overnight under the clouds. The cold front will make slow progress through the CWA from Friday night through Saturday evening. Saturday, the cold front will arrive with cool dry advection from north to south in the afternoon hours.
The second feature of interest will be a upper level trough moving through the Great lakes region that will force a cold front into the area this evening. highs today will range from the low 80s across the southeastern CWA where cloud cover will limit temperatures to the upper 80s across the northern CWA. Highs will range from the low to mid 80s.
114 AM CDT Fri Sep 2 2022 Upper level ridging will build northward across the Rockies through Friday. A cold front will surge southward through the area Friday as this occurs. Highs will be cooler Saturday, especially across portions of north central NE where CAA will be strongest.
1151 PM CDT Thu Sep 1 2022 (Rest of tonight) Southwesterly flow in the mid-levels will become established across the local forecast area overnight, downstream from a developing mid-level trough extending from eastern NE/western IA south-southwestward into southern OK. However, the presence of a weak cutoff upper low across southern GA will initially limit the return of moisture aloft, and for this reason we expect dry conditions to persist for the majority of the region. As the effective warm front begins to shift northwestward, we expect an increase in low stratus clouds and perhaps a few light showers closer to sunrise, and this should tend to stabilize temperatures.