Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1236 PM CDT Sat Jun 3 2017 Boundary layer moisture is on the increase across central Illinois this morning, as evidenced by 15z/10am surface dewpoints in the lower to middle 60s. Early morning surface map shows weak 1018-1020 mb high pressure over WV and eastern KY and ridging back into central and eastern IL. This to drive a cold front se into northern CWA late Sunday afternoon and over rest of CWA during Sunday night. Increasing sw winds bring more moisture into central IL sunday and supports better chance of showers and thunderstorms along and ahead of cold front Sunday afternoon and Sunday evening.
Hot daytime temperatures will occur during the upcoming week due to strong high pressure aloft. 03/12Z upper air plots depicted ridge axis extending from southern California northeastward into the the northern Rockies. Meanwhile, a low amplitude trough extended from the central CONUS southwestward into Sonora Mexico.
This coupled with weak high pressure over the SE United States is keeping an southerly flow over the region. However, another pertubation from the upper low over Texas will likely bring showers and thunderstorms developing after midnight across the coastal waters, and spreading inland before daybreak, thus the higher chances of precipitation during these periods.
Could see some moisture convergence just offshore late tonight along the pesky offshore trough. Continued drifting of the mid-level trough, now across West Texas, will send a few more vort maxes, of varying strengths towards the region tomorrow. Have continued the higher PoPs across the northeast zones/Victoria Crossroads to account for the higher moisture axis, some better dynamics, and sea breeze convergence.
A mild day under high pressure in Big Sky Country without a cloud in sight.
235 PM CDT Sat Jun 3 2017 Short wave moving across central Canada and attendant weak cold front will have minor impact on sensible weather across the region today.
A low developing over Texas, and associated moisture, will shift a little farther east Sunday ahead of an approaching cold front, with another round of diurnal convection.
Temperatures tonight are likely to remain a little warmer than this morning due to scattered cloud cover and some slight breeziness. Forecast models have been pretty good in handling the timing and strength of a cold front that's forecast to pass across Western Montana Sunday afternoon. The increasing vertical speed and directional wind shear produced by the approaching front combined with persistent moisture throughout the lower/mid atmosphere and growing instability from daytime heating will help initiate some decent thunderstorm growth after about 1pm MDT.
Weak W Atlantic high pressure, at the surface, remains stretched across the area with very light low level wind flow.
The center of the large upper low is over western OK and NW Texas. By Sunday models are dropping pops out west, concentrating the highest chances of rain Central and East zones. This is in concert with the upper low starting to shift east and southeast.
129 PM EDT Sat Jun 3 2017 A weak cold front has pushed across the area. High pressure returns tonight into Sunday as low pressure tracks through the Great Lakes.
110 PM MDT Sat Jun 3 2017 Tonight will be warmer with increasing wind, especially over the mountains.
314 PM CDT Sat Jun 3 2017 A chance for showers and thunderstorms this afternoon into the early evening before skies clear out and lows fall to a seasonably mild night in the low to mid 50s. At the surface a cold front is sweeping from west to east across northern Minnesota leading to clearing skies and some post- frontal cu developing. Brief small hail is possible with these storms given the cooler air aloft behind the front, but this threat will wane as the sun sets. Highs a bit cooler compared to Saturday, in the 70s to low 80s.
328 PM EDT Sat Jun 3 2017 Chances for rain will steadily increase tomorrow as a cold front approaches the area. Cooler and drier conditions expected for the rest of the week. Playing chicken with remnant MCV and convection along subtle warm front draped over western lakes as it tries to push into our area but encounters increasingly hostile environment. As upper low across Central Canada digs SE, convection currently developing over Northern Wisconsin will grow upscale and spread E/SE overnight. Some residual showers/isolated storms may clip our northern counties in the early morning hours but better moisture convergence remains along warm front lifting through Lake Huron and expect just SCT convection at best. Prefrontal troughing/confluence (leftover from overnight activity) will settle into our CWA tomorrow and diurnal heating expected to touch off a few showers/storms during the afternoon.
137 PM EDT Sat Jun 3 2017 High pressure will maintain fair weather through Sunday morning.
327 PM EDT Sat Jun 3 2017 High pressure will extend across the region through Sunday.
The low level north-northwest flow will inhibit much lake clouds from advancing into Se MI during the early morning hours. An upper trough axis will be located over Lower Mi on Wednesday. As mentioned in the morning update, the smaller scale circulation within the cold pool of the upper level trough together continue to provide weak to moderate convective potential over the Great Lakes. Hourly mesoanalysis depicts surface based CAPE hanging around 500 J/kg which remains adequate for a brief thunderstorm capable of some pea size hail in the low freezing level environment. The upper level trough axis is moving eastward but will remain over the western Great Lakes overnight into Wednesday morning. Otherwise, expect a repeat performance of diurnally enhanced convection over lower Michigan Wednesday afternoon with the added support of deformation forcing within the upper level trough axis.
1149 PM CDT Tue Sep 5 2017 At 2 PM, a short wave trough was moving through southwest Wisconsin and northeast Iowa and another short wave trough was located over the Minnesota Arrowhead. For late tonight and Wednesday, a trough currently located over Hudson Bay, is expected to move south through Wisconsin.
The initial cold front and surface based convection has passed to our southeast. The secondary cold front demarked by a more dramatic dew point drop of around 10-15 degrees was located over northern KY into northern AR. Clouds will likely linger into Wednesday behind the front and have made some slight adjustments to keep mostly cloudy conditions in the forecast for longer during the morning hours as the longwave trough axis moves atop the TN Valley. However, the bigger story will be the cooler temperatures behind the front with daytime highs registering in the mid 70s compared to mid 80s (Tuesday).
Two episodes of showers and storms have developed: one on the pre- frontal trough/outflow boundary axis and the other with the cold front just crossing into NW AL. Currently, strong storms are occurring along both the frontal boundary and pre-frontal trough within the area of highest instability. One thing to note is that northeast Alabama has received more sfc heating than NW which may be the reason for some small hail existing within the pre-frontal trough axis storms. Clouds will likely linger into Wednesday behind the front and have made some slight adjustments to keep mostly cloudy conditions in the forecast for longer during the morning hours as the longwave trough axis moves atop the TN Valley. However, the bigger story will be the cooler temperatures behind the front with daytime highs registering in the mid 70s compared to mid 80s (Tuesday).
Cold front continues to move south of the state with a secondary boundary dividing the very dry air across north Arkansas, moving south.
Temperatures have already dropped into the lower 50s east of Stillwater tonight behind the cold front.
A few fair wx cu may develop over the higher terrain after 18Z.
1127 PM CDT Tue Sep 5 2017 The cold front that passed through the area last night has moved south into Arkansas taking the elevated smoke with it and allowing a cooler airmass to move into place today. This cooler airmass will result in below average temperatures for the rest of the week as Wednesday being the coldest day with lows in the mid to upper 40s and highs barely making it into the 70s. High pressure and ridging building into the region will keep the area precipitation free at least through the work week.
Rather strong lobe of high pressure for the season dumping down the plains and MO RVR Valley, with the local area still bathed in it's east side pressure gradient driving the breezy conditions this afternoon. Aloft, long wave trof extending from the lower MS RVR Valley, to east of the Hudson Bay region in ongoing blocked steering pattern acrs the CONUS/North America, to change little over the next few days. Incoming airmass and H85 MB ridge cool rule would support many areas getting down into the lower 40s to upper 30s for lows tonight, but ongoing incoming ridge gradient to keep northwesterly sfc winds going of at least 4-7 KTS. But more areas may be held in the low to mid 60s like what is currently occurring in upstream airmass source region acrs western MN and the eastern Dakotas.
927 PM EDT Tue Sep 5 2017 A cold front will slowly cross the area tonight through Wednesday. High pressure will then build to the north of the area over the weekend. Storm motion tonight will be to the north-northeast in advance of a rather well amplified trough across the Great Lakes. Additional showers will likely develop Wed morning over wrn areas as right entrance jet dynamics increase as upper level trough amplifies across the Great Lks.
Cold front has passed through the area, although a few post-frontal showers are still lingering over Lake Cumberland. Overnight lows will be much cooler than last night, dropping into the low and mid 50s in most spots. One more vort lobe rotates through the parent trough tomorrow, and could bring some isolated showers or sprinkles with it. Trough axis swings through with high pressure building in Wednesday night.
As a result, the temperatures are cooling nicely with high pressure centered through the Plains in firm control of the lower troposphere and sensible weather. High pressure will build into the region during the day tomorrow.
angling cold front our way all summer. We sure are in for an early fall for the next several days with fresh cool high pressure drawn South early by a lingering Harvey. /issued 416 PM CDT Tue Sep 5 2017/ Scattered convection is quickly developing along a cold front that is located from near Mount Vernon, to De Queen, and east-northeast into Central Arkansas.
625 PM CDT Tue Sep 5 2017 High pressure across MT will settle south across Wrn Nebraska overnight.
KMD 255 PM CDT Unseasonably cool weather will continue through tomorrow and beyond as a deep upper trough slowly moves across the upper midwest and Great Lakes regions. Any showers and much of the cloud cover will dissipate with sunset and temperatures should drop into the 40s across much of the CWA away from the Chicago metro urban heat island, where lows should remain in the lower 50s. Temperatures Wednesday should be even lower than Tuesday, with highs only in the lower to middle 60s. 315 PM CDT The deep trough responsible for the cool weather to start the period (highs in 60s and lows in 40s for many areas) will exit east by the weekend, enabling moderation in high temperatures back to near/around normal for early to mid September.
624 PM CDT Tue Sep 5 2017 Aloft: 12Z upr-air data/WV imagery/aircraft winds showed a highly amplified Wrn ridge with an embedded subtropical high. and a trof over the Cntrl/Ern USA. The only minor change thru tomorrow will be further deepening of the Ern trof. Heights will then build around it as the Wrn ridge shifts E. This will isolated the trof from the flow and rotation will bundle. Depending on how this low evolves. So this low will not have much moisture to work with.
911 PM CDT Tue Sep 5 2017 The cold front has moved south of the CWA as of 02z, taking most of the precipitation with it. Cooler and drier air will advect into the Mid-South overnight and through the day tomorrow. A cold front stretches from Muscle Shoals AL to just south of Tupelo to Cleveland MS. Chances for showers and thunderstorms will taper off from NW to SE this evening as the cold front moves well south and high pressure quickly builds in. Dry air and cooler temps will advect in overnight and temps will fall well into the 50s.
607 PM CDT Tue Sep 5 2017 At 2 PM, a short wave trough was moving through southwest Wisconsin and northeast Iowa and another short wave trough was located over the Minnesota Arrowhead. For late tonight and Wednesday, a trough currently located over Hudson Bay, is expected to move south through Wisconsin.
/issued 317 PM CDT Tue Sep 5 2017/ (Tonight and Wednesday) A weak cold front has moved through all but far southern portions of the CWA this afternoon. Lows tonight will be in the upper 50s and lower 60s, with highs on Wednesday in the lower and middle 80s.
Our present unseasonably cool regime will remain in place through late Wednesday until the passage of the low level ridge. There will be some weak short waves embedded within the long wave trough but the phasing of sufficient moisture and lift will not be there for appreciable large scale precip, at least this far south and west.
High pressure aloft will weaken late this week as a low strengthens to our west. Enhanced moisture will gradually expand northward from later in the week into the weekend, allowing for increasing chances of thunderstorms and cooler temperatures towards the weekend. Mid level ridging extends across the Intermountain region this evening, situated between an upper low spinning off the West Coast, and a deep mid level trough encompassing the eastern half of the CONUS.
612 PM CDT Tue Sep 5 2017 The cold front that passed through the area last night has moved south into Arkansas taking the elevated smoke with it and allowing a cooler airmass to move into place today. This cooler airmass will result in below average temperatures for the rest of the week as Wednesday being the coldest day with lows in the mid to upper 40s and highs barely making it into the 70s. High pressure and ridging building into the region will keep the area precipitation free at least through the work week.
Cold front now located just southeast of the cwa and will continue to push away from our area. Lows in the lower to mid 50s still looks likely so no changes.
1153 PM CDT Tue Sep 5 2017 A cold front extending across central Louisiana just north of KAEX will continue to progress southward during the overnight hours. Showers and thunderstorms have developed along and ahead of the cold front and are expected to progress southward with the front. The cold front is expected to move offshore by mid-morning tomorrow resulting in increasing northerly winds and clearing skies.
1046 PM CDT Tue Sep 5 2017 Highly amplified upper flow with a deep trough in place across the western Great Lakes. to the vicinity of the trough axis. With the much cooler airmass in place, clearing skies and light winds overnight, expect lows in the low to mid 40s for most of the area, but even a few temps hitting the upper 30s are possible.
855 PM CDT Tue Sep 5 2017 A thin band of showers and thunderstorms has developed along the cold front situated just north of the CWA.
An upper trough axis will be located over Lower Mi on Wednesday. As mentioned in the morning update, the smaller scale circulation within the cold pool of the upper level trough together continue to provide weak to moderate convective potential over the Great Lakes. Hourly mesoanalysis depicts surface based CAPE hanging around 500 J/kg which remains adequate for a brief thunderstorm capable of some pea size hail in the low freezing level environment. The upper level trough axis is moving eastward but will remain over the western Great Lakes overnight into Wednesday morning. Otherwise, expect a repeat performance of diurnally enhanced convection over lower Michigan Wednesday afternoon with the added support of deformation forcing within the upper level trough axis.
Today's cold front has almost exited the area this afternoon. Thanks to the cold front winds are out of the north and northwest and temperatures have dropped into the 60s in several counties. Lingering showers may continue into the evening hours tonight, but conditions should be dry and noticeably cooler by Wednesday morning.
632 PM CDT Tue Sep 5 2017 Highly amplified upper flow with a deep trough in place across the western Great Lakes. to the vicinity of the trough axis. With the much cooler airmass in place, clearing skies and light winds overnight, expect lows in the low to mid 40s for most of the area, but even a few temps hitting the upper 30s are possible.
630 PM CDT Tue Sep 5 2017 255 PM CDT Unseasonably cool weather will continue through tomorrow and beyond as a deep upper trough slowly moves across the upper midwest and Great Lakes regions. Any showers and much of the cloud cover will dissipate with sunset and temperatures should drop into the 40s across much of the CWA away from the Chicago metro urban heat island, where lows should remain in the lower 50s. Temperatures Wednesday should be even lower than Tuesday, with highs only in the lower to middle 60s. 315 PM CDT The deep trough responsible for the cool weather to start the period (highs in 60s and lows in 40s for many areas) will exit east by the weekend, enabling moderation in high temperatures back to near/around normal for early to mid September.
726 PM EDT Tue Sep 5 2017 Showery weather and well below normal temperatures can be expected through the week until high pressure returns this weekend. A few showers continue, mainly north of Pittsburgh, ahead of the advancing mid-level trough. Showers will continue along the ridges through most of the night as ripples of vorticity rotate ahead of the trough.
/issued 322 PM CDT Tue Sep 5 2017/ Primary forecast focus is on cooler weather and low precipitation chances at times, in northern Oklahoma late week through the weekend. This afternoon, cooler, more pleasant temperatures have spread across the region behind the passage of the cold front.
The smoke will keep daytime temperatures cooler than earlier predicted.
This evening's surface analysis showed a cold front across central GA and AL, though it was difficult to distinguish between the composite of convective outflow bounaries from the synoptic cold front. However, the thermodynamics still appear supportive of deep moist convection, and Q-G forcing is likely to increase overnight as a strong upper trough develops over the eastern CONUS.
1039 PM EDT Tue Sep 5 2017 A cold front will become nearly stationary across across eastern PA late tonight through Wednesday afternoon.
503 PM MDT Tue Sep 5 2017 00Z TAF CYCLE Upper high continues to dominate NM and circulation center may inch closer to the Four Corners during the next 24 hrs.
933 PM EDT Tue Sep 5 2017 Showery weather and well below normal temperatures can be expected through the week until high pressure returns this weekend. Quick update to up PoPs for a few hours along the ridges with another batch of rain lifting through. The ridges will continue to be the favored precipitation location through most of the night as ripples of vorticity rotate ahead of the trough.
1232 AM EDT Wed Sep 6 2017 Cool weather with periodic shower chances can be expected until high pressure builds this weekend. Changes for the midnight update included some precip probability adjustments along the ridges based on the latest radar trends. That disturbance will increase shower chances again after daybreak, and dig the overall trough axis eastward. Near term temperature is projected about 10 degrees under the averages given the flanking position on the overall trough and persistent boundary layer moisture/dewpoints.
Update: Some high clouds are moving over the upper ridge in Alberta and Western Montana this evening. Forrester Previous short term: A relatively cool air mass is expected to remain in place across the forecast area as a strong upper level ridge resides upstream over the far western U. A Great Lakes upper trough is expected to shift eastward on Wednesday while the ridge to the west remains in place. This will drive rising heights and warmer temperatures into the area.
622 PM CDT Tue Sep 5 2017 A big upper level trough is digging across the Great Lake Region into the Midwest. The center of the high moves over the region late on Wednesday with another seasonable cool day with mostly sunny skies and highs in the lower 70s. High pressure will build across the plains, with winds diminishing this evening.
759 PM MDT Tue Sep 5 2017 Tweaked sky for high level clouds rounding ridge (noted on satellite). Forecast is otherwise in a rather ordinary and quiet mode due to ridge over the region. Dry conditions and a warming trend can be expected through the short term period with upper level ridging building into the region. Ridging will build back into the region starting Wednesday, and remain in control for the remainder of the period.
/issued 911 PM CDT Tue Sep 5 2017/ The cold front has moved south of the CWA as of 02z, taking most of the precipitation with it. Cooler and drier air will advect into the Mid-South overnight and through the day tomorrow. A cold front stretches from Muscle Shoals AL to just south of Tupelo to Cleveland MS. Chances for showers and thunderstorms will taper off from NW to SE this evening as the cold front moves well south and high pressure quickly builds in. Dry air and cooler temps will advect in overnight and temps will fall well into the 50s.
High pressure remains over the waters the next couple of days with favorable winds and seas. High pressure approaching from the north will allow the gradient to tighten later this week with increasing winds and seas over the northern waters.
/ISSUED 855 PM CDT Tue Sep 5 2017/ A thin band of showers and thunderstorms has developed along the cold front situated just north of the CWA.
/issued 238 PM CDT Tue Sep 5 2017/ Low amplitude short wave continuing to slide by well to the east with cooler and drier air will be our dominant features through Wednesday. Upper level ridge over much of the intermountain west will elongate to our south and then edge more overhead late in the week and into the weekend, allowing slow warming trend.
Drier air moves in for Wednesday on a brisk northwest flow, but upslope flow and steep low-level lapse rates across the TN/NC mountains may produce some scattered rain showers across the higher terrain on Wednesday afternoon. With a strong upper level trough in place overhead following tonight's frontal passage, temperatures should remain below normal for Wednesday, with highs generally in the lower 70s. Chattanooga Airport, TN 59 75 52 75 / 30 10 10 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 57 71 50 73 / 40 30 10 0 Oak Ridge, TN 58 72 49 73 / 20 10 10 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 59 68 48 69 / 50 40 10 10.
958 PM MDT Tue Sep 5 2017 The cold front that temporarily cleared out alot of the smoke from the northeast across our CWA and brought us the cooler temperatures these last few days is washing out.
927 PM CDT Tue Sep 5 2017 Cold front, characterized by a line of thunderstorms producing heavy rainfall, frequent lightning, and wind speeds up to 30 MPH continues to race south across the region. angling cold front our way all summer. We sure are in for an early fall for the next several days with fresh cool high pressure drawn South early by a lingering Harvey. /issued 416 PM CDT Tue Sep 5 2017/ Scattered convection is quickly developing along a cold front that is located from near Mount Vernon, to De Queen, and east-northeast into Central Arkansas.
525 PM MDT Tue Sep 5 2017 A quiet weather pattern will prevail over the next several days as the CWA remains in dry northwest flow aloft, on the eastern fringe of upper-level ridging over the western US.