Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Although forcing for ascent is weak, guidance generally supports decent moisture transport with dew points increasing to the low/mid 60s, and forecast soundings at UKL show increased saturation in the low levels late this morning into the afternoon. As a result, highs turn cooler in the mid/upper 70s while areas north of I-70 should see low 80s with better insolation. As the upper low gradually moves northeast in the evening and overnight, the forecast looks dry for the rest of the short-term.
1210 AM EDT Tue Sep 22 2020 Dry weather with gradually warming temperature can be expected this week under high pressure. Another good radiation night under dry high pressure will support a rapid temperature drop. With dewpoints in the lower 30s, a little more moisture is available for frost formation, so an advisory was issued for the extreme northern, and ridge zones of the Upr OH Valley Region. A gradually warming trend is likely as weak warm advection resumes on the west side of high pressure in the low- levels, with each subsequent day likely being a slightly warmer than the preceding day.
Today: Southerly breezes under broad upper ridging will push temperatures into the middle and even upper 80s.
357 AM EDT Tue Sep 22 2020 High pressure will provide dry weather through much of the eastern U.
400 AM EDT Tue Sep 22 2020 An upper ridge will continue over the forecast area through much of the period. Tropical Storm Beta is forecast to hang around the TX coast and an upper trough will develop over the lower MS River Valley.
We start the period under the upper ridge, but this ridge will gradually deamplify as a weak upper trough to our west approaches. We will see some increase in mainly high clouds during the period as moisture associated with Beta begins to be pulled north by the weak trough to our west.
302 AM EDT Tue Sep 22 2020 High pressure will weaken today but keep us dry for at least two more days, with moderating temperatures. High pressure starts to drop south and weaken today as Hurricane Teddy slides north in the western Atlantic heading for Nova Scotia. The low level thicknesses slowly rise although upper heights fall somewhat. Tonight, high pressure remains in place at the surface. Meanwhile, upper levels showing a closed low forming over the Ozarks and models are streaming in some high clouds after midnight, so not a completely clear forecast.
Ridgetop temperatures, ranging through the 50s at present, should slowly sink into the upper 40s to near 50 by sunrise. Low temperatures should generally range from 40-45 in valleys and in the mid to upper 40s over the ridges and Bluegrass. Northward moving, transitioning Hurricane Teddy will pinch the high and split it into two centers, with one of them centered over the Appalachians at the end of the period. Upper level moisture from Beta will get picked up by a weak upper low moving east from New Mexico to the Ozarks during the period.
Split flow is less evident at the 500mb level, with ridge of high pressure over the central and southern CONUS and more progressive flow over the northern CONUS.
A weak cold front will pass through this evening with a very small increase in winds and a small chance for light rain showers mainly over the mountains.
246 AM CDT Tue Sep 22 2020 High pressure remained outstretched across much of the eastern CONUS early this morning while a cold front was found from SW MN into northern WI. Tonight, the light southwest flow will continue keeping temperatures slightly warmer than those this morning. Expect lows in the low to mid 50s.
Ridgetop temperatures, ranging through the 50s at present, should slowly sink into upper 40s to near 50 by sunrise. Low temperatures should generally range from 40-45 in valleys and in the mid to upper 40s over the ridges and Bluegrass. Northward moving, transitioning Hurricane Teddy will pinch the high and split it into two centers, with one of them centered over the Appalachians at the end of the period. Upper level moisture from Beta will get picked up by a weak upper low moving east from New Mexico to the Ozarks during the period.
1122 PM MDT Mon Sep 21 2020 The minor increase in PWATs and midlevel instability worked its magic this afternoon as satellite and radar shows plenty of convection over the higher terrain of the CWA. Like today, most showers and storms will fire over the higher terrain though coverage should be a bit more widespread than seen today and a bit more organized.
300 AM EDT Tue Sep 22 2020 Dry weather with gradually warming temperature can be expected this week under high pressure. Dry and mostly sunny weather is expected again today under high pressure. A few mid/high clouds are possible toward evening as a weakening upper trough approaches the region in NW flow aloft, though dry air in place should limit this potential.
Weak ridging remains in place across the Midwest, resulting in above average temperatures and continued dry weather for several more days.
Thanks to cloud cover, temperatures will only be in the lower 70s this afternoon.
1236 AM CDT Tue Sep 22 2020 General scenario is for gradual warming through the week with a building ridge.
Utah remains under warm southwesterly flow aloft this evening as an upstream trough makes its way onto the NorCal and PacNW coasts. Showers and thunderstorms will increase tomorrow as the upstream trough ripples across northern Utah, and given the increasing trend in moisture, expect greater coverage and somewhat stronger storms.
Current temps for the most part are on track but a few of the cooler spots fell quickly before the clouds moved in and have nudged lows a bit lower. Stumpf (Issued 315 PM CDT Mon Sep 21 2020) Tonight through Tuesday night: This period will remain quiet with the high pressure in the northeast US weakening and thus decreasing the pressure gradient across the area and in turn weakening our winds. However winds will remain southerly with weak high pressure remaining over the Ohio River Valley region. This will bring mostly zonal flow through Tuesday morning with the ridge starting to build back in by Tuesday night.
Today, an upper level trough just north of our region will help to keep the remnant circulation from Beta over East Texas and pushing the moisture east of our area, resulting in decreasing chances for any showers in our eastern counties as the day goes on. With widespread cloudiness today and the weak 850 mb thermal ridge, expect cooler than normal highs today in the mid 70s to around 80, while lows tonight will be in the low 60s.
1258 AM EDT Tue Sep 22 2020 Influence of high pressure will continue to bring VFR conditions through the overnight hours while an elevated warm front ushers in some mid and high based clouds first across KMBS this morning, then across the remaining terminals during daylight hours.
410 AM EDT Tue Sep 22 2020 07z sfc analysis shows high pressure now off to the east of the area. Temperatures are running similar, though, with the sheltered valleys in the low to mid 40s while ridges are generally in the low 50s - amid light winds.
207 AM CDT Tue Sep 22 2020 It's officially the first day of Fall, and it will feel like it too! The ridge of high pressure aloft will weaken and shift SE, but will be able to keep conditions dry for one more day.
1202 AM CDT Tue Sep 22 2020 Primarily dry and seasonable conditions are expected for this week as high pressure controls the weather.
1212 AM CDT Tue Sep 22 2020 Clear skies and light winds are expected through the night with lows in the lower 50s. The nearly zonal upper flow pattern currently over the region will give way to weak ridging late tonight into the day Tuesday before a more zonal flow returns Tuesday night. At the surface, weak high pressure will remain over the area tonight and Tuesday. A low pressure system and associated frontal boundary will then approach, with the low becoming centered over the South Dakota by late Tuesday night. Low temperatures tonight will be in the lower to mid 50s, with highs on Tuesday in the 80s.
The water loaded airmass will result in thick cloud cover which will limit temps today to the low 70s in southeast KS while central KS climbs into the low 80s.
It is anticipated that this storm will continue to meander just inland for the next 12 hours or so and then proceed NE along the North Texas coast at which point it will start to weaken to a depression as it approaches the lower MS Valley. Moisture will continue to stream into the area over the cooler air mass that has been in place across the area leading to weak isentropic lift. Cloud cover and light rain will keep high temperatures on the cooler side with highs in the low 70s.
113 AM EDT Tue Sep 22 2020 High pressure will continue to dominate the region, providing dry and cool conditions through the middle of the week.
This is due to High pressure dominating the lower level of the atmosphere around the Midwest. High pressure continues to dominate the weather pattern around the Midwest. At this time, no precipitation is expected as the High pressure at the sfc holds dry conditions in place. High pressure will linger throughout the region over the next 24 hours, keeping the seasonal conditions in place. Overnight lows will slightly warm, with temps dropping back into the low to mid 50s, as southerly winds increase.
A cold front moves through the forecast area this evening with some north to NE winds behind it.
850 AM EDT Tue Sep 22 2020 High pressure will remain over the region through late Wednesday.
Through the latter part of the week, an upper level ridge will redevelop from the Desert Southwest into the central and northern Plains.
920 AM EDT Tue Sep 22 2020 High pressure will provide dry weather through much of the eastern U.
735 AM EDT Tue Sep 22 2020 An upper ridge will continue over the forecast area through much of the period. Tropical Storm Beta is forecast to hang around the TX coast and an upper trough will develop over the lower MS River Valley.
Models continue to bring an upper low, currently over Oklahoma, eastward today and tonight, with the low centered over southern Missouri/northern Arkansas by 18z Wednesday.
As the feature ejects out and fills, a defacto frontal trough extending from the remnant low should usher cooler and drier air into the region that should last through the weekend.
1040 AM EDT Tue Sep 22 2020 High pressure will maintain fair weather with a gradual warming trend this week. High pressure with smoke filtered sun this afternoon.
A few showers and a thunderstorm or two are forecast over the northern and western mountains this afternoon otherwise partly sunny skies along with warmer than average temperatures will continue elsewhere.
With high pressure in control at the surface today and tonight, the only weather of note will be development of an upper level low over the Ozarks tonight.
Today, a weak trough will swing through Idaho and move into Montana. The only impact from this looks to be a bit more cloud cover for a few hours as the trough moves through.
650 AM EDT Tue Sep 22 2020 High pressure will remain over the region through late Wednesday.
313 AM MDT Tue Sep 22 2020 Latest upper air analysis shows a ridge over the Central and Southern Plains, with a trough over the West Coast. Satellite imagery shows cloud cover moving onshore ahead of the trough. Lows will be similar to last night, falling into the low 50s and upper 40s. Winds west of the trough will be from the west and light. To the east of the trough southerly winds will be a bit stronger, but remain slower than today. Wednesday night the trough will move through the rest of the forecast area, causing the winds to turn to the northwest.
634 AM EDT Tue Sep 22 2020 High pressure will weaken today but keep us dry for at least two more days, with moderating temperatures. High pressure starts to drop south and weaken today as Hurricane Teddy slides north in the western Atlantic heading for Nova Scotia. The low level thicknesses slowly rise although upper heights fall somewhat. Tonight, high pressure remains in place at the surface. Meanwhile, upper levels showing a closed low forming over the Ozarks and models are streaming in some high clouds after midnight, so not a completely clear forecast.
525 AM EDT Tue Sep 22 2020 Dry weather with gradually warming temperature can be expected this week under high pressure. Dry and mostly sunny weather is expected again today under high pressure. A few mid/high clouds are possible toward evening as a weakening upper trough approaches the region in NW flow aloft, though dry air in place should limit this potential. High pressure should maintain mainly clear skies and dry weather through Wednesday night as it drifts across the Tennessee and Ohio Valley regions.
Southwest flow today ahead of an approaching upper level trough. A slow moving cold front will arrive in the Washington Cascades early Wednesday and then take through Wednesday night to pass across the forecast area.
High pressure remained outstretched across much of the eastern CONUS early this morning while a cold front was found from SW MN into northern WI. Tonight, the light southwest flow will continue keeping temperatures slightly warmer than those this morning. Expect lows in the low to mid 50s.
Today: Southerly breezes under broad upper ridging will push temperatures into the middle and even upper 80s. Wednesday: Mid-lvl flow flattens in anticipation of a weak upper trough moving through the region late Wednesday.
800 AM EDT Tue Sep 22 2020 Dry weather with gradually warming temperature can be expected this week under high pressure. Dry and mostly sunny weather is expected again today under high pressure. A few mid/high clouds are possible toward evening as a weakening upper trough approaches the region in NW flow aloft, though dry air in place should limit this potential. High pressure should maintain mainly clear skies and dry weather through Wednesday night as it drifts across the Tennessee and Ohio Valley regions.
Even in areas of central and north central Oklahoma that don't receive much rainfall, cloud cover will keep temperatures in the lower 60s.
528 AM MDT Tue Sep 22 2020 Latest upper air analysis shows a ridge over the Central and Southern Plains, with a trough over the West Coast. Satellite imagery shows cloud cover moving onshore ahead of the trough. Lows will be similar to last night, falling into the low 50s and upper 40s. Winds west of the trough will be from the west and light. To the east of the trough southerly winds will be a bit stronger, but remain slower than today. Wednesday night the trough will move through the rest of the forecast area, causing the winds to turn to the northwest.
1044 AM EDT Tue Sep 22 2020 A large area of high pressure extending from the Upper St.
Some of the high terrain of Utah and southern Colorado appear to have the best chances of wetting rainfall today. Unfortunately it doesn't appear very probable for much measurable rainfall in the lower elevations and winds will be more of a concern. Smoke forecasts show another push of western fire smoke dropping into the North by tomorrow afternoon as the flow becomes more northerly by the ridge bulging back into the Intermountain West. The only exception to this will be over the weekend as a system moves across the north and pushes in some cooler air.
650 AM EDT Tue Sep 22 2020 High pressure over New England will shift to the southwest reaching the Ohio River Valley by this evening.
640 AM EDT Tue Sep 22 2020 High pressure will provide dry weather through much of the eastern U.
952 AM EDT Tue Sep 22 2020 High pressure over New England will shift to the southwest reaching the Ohio River Valley by this evening.
The weak trough currently over Southern California will move out to the northeast starting about 18Z and will provide sufficient instability for increased shower and thunderstorms activity this afternoon.
647 AM EDT Tue Sep 22 2020 High pressure will maintain fair weather with a gradual warming trend this week. The area will be under high pressure maintaining fair weather through tonight.
Ahead of the low 850mb south winds will bring increasing moisture into the FA and with it some instability will develop ahead of the weak forcing.
1050 AM EDT Tue Sep 22 2020 Currently - An unusually early back door cold front has recently swept through the Florida Keys. Even with that, temperatures are in the mid 80s with dew points in the lower 70s. Short Term Update - High pressure will continue to blanket much of the eastern United States this afternoon and local winds will remain fresh out of the east northeast. Dew points will remain refreshingly low in the lower 70s to near 70. In wake of an early season backdoor cold front, expect continued fresh winds across Keys waters this afternoon.
Although forcing for ascent is weak, guidance generally supports decent moisture transport with dew points increasing to the low/mid 60s, and forecast soundings at UKL show increased saturation in the low levels late this morning into the afternoon. As a result, highs turn cooler in the mid/upper 70s while areas north of I-70 should see low 80s with better insolation. As the upper low gradually moves northeast in the evening and overnight, the forecast looks dry for the rest of the short-term. Dry weather becomes more likely throughout Wednesday as the upper low continues to slowly progress through MO and AR.
538 AM EDT Tue Sep 22 2020 Passage of an elevated front and weak upper-level disturbance will produce some mid to high level clouds that will spread across the terminals this morning and afternoon, but otherwise high pressure will maintain VFR conditions.
It's officially the first day of Fall, and it will feel like it too! The ridge of high pressure aloft will weaken and shift SE, but will be able to keep conditions dry for one more day.
Split flow is less evident at the 500mb level, with ridge of high pressure over the central and southern CONUS and more progressive flow over the northern CONUS. The low level theta-E fields indicate an even stronger push of low level WAA Wednesday morning as a weak lee trough forms over Raton Mesa, which should result in an expansive area of low clouds over a good portion of the area (far western zones may miss out). Will keep mention of Haze in the west where smoke density is progged to be the highest.
Issued by National Weather Service Charleston SC 1043 AM EDT Tue Sep 22 2020 High pressure will continue to dominate the region, providing dry and cool conditions through the middle of the week.
The model suggests mixing highs will rise as high as 600mb across nrn Nebraska where highs in the lower 90s are in place. A weak frontal boundary or sfc trof drifting into wrn Nebraska this evening is the basis for isolated sprinkles in the wrn Sandhills tonight. The atmosphere should stay fairly well mixed ahead of the sfc trof and that is the basis for lows in the mid to upper 50s across ncntl Nebraska. The temperature forecast Wednesday might be too optimistic given that a weak cold front will drop part way through wrn and ncntl Nebraska.
High pressure will continue to dominate for one more day, but will start to see an increase in moisture/high clouds as the tropical airmass related to Tropical Storm Beta slowly tracks north and east.
Terrific day outside! The upper ridge is gradually shifting eastward while high clouds are beginning to encroach the southwestern forecast area. Chattanooga Airport, TN 76 58 75 60 71 / 0 10 10 30 70 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 74 55 75 59 75 / 0 0 10 10 50 Oak Ridge, TN 75 54 76 58 74 / 0 0 10 10 50 Tri Cities Airport, TN 74 48 76 53 76 / 0 0 0 0 30.
516 AM MDT Tue Sep 22 2020 Mean NE Pac upper trough will continue to support 2-3 period impulses into the region. There will be a slight chance for a shower of thunderstorm in the NW third this evening and overnight as the upper trough and associated LL theta-e ridge traverse the region.
501 AM EDT Tue Sep 22 2020 High pressure will continue to dominate the region, providing dry and cool conditions through the middle of the week.
307 PM EDT Tue Sep 22 2020 High pressure will maintain fair weather with a gradual warming trend this week. High pressure with smoke filtered sun this afternoon.
308 PM CDT Tue Sep 22 2020 Seasonably warm yet comfortable day in progress compliments of light southerly return flow on western flank of Ohio Valley high pressure, and abundant sunshine albeit continued hazy from the western wildfires. Considerable clouds and widespread rain was noted over portions of the lower Mississippi Valley and portions of TX/LA Gulf Coast attendant to Tropical Depression (TD) Beta. Adding in the increase in cloudiness should equate to a very similar to perhaps a skosh cooler day with highs in the mid 70s to around 80 degrees.
Issued by National Weather Service Charleston SC 349 PM EDT Tue Sep 22 2020 High pressure will remain over the region through the middle of this week, providing dry and cool conditions.
Water vapor satellite loop in combination with recent RUC model 500 mb initializations show a trough from southern British Columbia down into northwest AZ. Surface analysis showed high pressure from the western parts of KY and TN extending back west into MO. Low pressure extended from central MT down into eastern parts of WY and CO. Temperatures at 3 pm were mainly in the lower or mid 80s across eastern NE and southwest IA with dewpoints in the 50s.
An upper trough to our east along with the remnants of TS Beta over SE TX will keep our area on the dry side the rest of this week.
1113 AM MDT Tue Sep 22 2020 Mean NE Pac upper trough will continue to support 2-3 period impulses into the region. There will be a slight chance for a shower of thunderstorm in the NW third this evening and overnight as the upper trough and associated LL theta-e ridge traverse the region.
302 PM CDT Tue Sep 22 2020 A mild/warm Fall weather pattern will persist for several days Aloft, the pattern reflected weak ridging across the plains states, while to the south remnants of Beta were lifting north from south Texas. Visible satellite shows an expansive cloud shield from south TX northward into eastern KS associated with the upper trough. Temps through the remainder of the workweek will remain above normal with highs in the 80s/around 90F in a warm airmass influenced by ridging aloft.
900 AM PDT Tue Sep 22 2020 Mild weather will prevail today with the upper level trough of low pressure moving by to the north.
206 PM EDT Tue Sep 22 2020 High pressure will provide dry weather through much of the eastern U.
Some high-based virga remains possible over the next couple hours, but precip will need to overcome plenty of dry air in the lower levels before reaching the ground - model soundings continue to show 10 to 20 C dew point depressions up to about 700mb, supported by surface dew points observed mainly in the 40s F. Subsidence in the wake of the wave and high pressure centered over the Ohio Valley allow for mostly clear skies tonight. Expect temps to fall to the lower 50s by Wednesday morning. A broad ridge of high pressure remains situated over the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes tonight into Wednesday as we remain sandwiched between the remnants of Beta over the lower Mississippi Valley and Teddy over the Canadian Maritimes.
200 PM PDT Tue Sep 22 2020 Mild weather will prevail this afternoon with the upper level trough of low pressure moving by to the north.
445 PM EDT Tue Sep 22 2020 High pressure will maintain fair weather with a gradual warming trend this week. Temps in the low-mid 60s this evening. No issues with high pressure centered over the Tennessee-Kentucky dominating our weather.
Cool front will drop through the area late tonight into Wednesday morning with cooler conditions and breezy NW winds during the day.
Otherwise, high pressure will remain in the mid Miss Vly with a low pressure system in the northern Plains, so we will stay in a south or southwest wind regime this period.