Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1055 PM CDT Fri Nov 4 2022 (This evening through Saturday) The cold front responsible for today's active weather will be exiting our forecast area this evening, bringing the chance for severe weather further to the south and east. Behind it, an Arctic airmass is in place with temperatures already in the low 40s per regional observations. With a warm ground and marginal surface temperatures (near or perhaps even a smidge above freezing), accumulations are not expected.
Skies will clear through the day and the high pressure system will also be pulling out of the CWA as well. Tonight will remain partly cloudy and cold but do not expect freezing temperatures as WAA will return to the region. Sunday, a weak cold front will come through during the morning and allow CAA to return to the region.
1226 AM CDT Sat Nov 5 2022 (The rest of tonight) The severe weather threat has now shifted into central/southwest AR and out of our CWA as sfc cold front has now moved through the majority of the area. Still expect a few showers or a stray thunderstorm near the front, which is trailing the severe QLCS, and some additional light showers associated with moisture wrapping around upper low remain possible overnight near OK/KS border. Mainly will see much cooler and somewhat blustery conditions tonight before winds eventually die down. Updated forecast will reflect lower thunder chances and cooler temps in the wake of the front.
1212 AM CDT Sat Nov 5 2022 (This evening through Saturday) The center of the closed upper low was currently located over the Texas/New Mexico state line and will continue to move east over the Texas Panhandle late this afternoon and early evening. As the low passes over the Panhandles late this afternoon, the best deformation zone will be over the Panhandles but will extend southward into the extreme southern Panhandle. Weak surface ridging will settle over the region early Saturday morning leading to light winds. Skies will also clear out in the wake of the departing upper level low and we will be left with strong subsidence aloft through Saturday afternoon.
High pressure that remains over the Eastern Seaboard and extends across Florida will continue to dominate the weather pattern through the weekend.
1207 AM CDT Sat Nov 5 2022 (This evening through Saturday night) Upper level low center over the southwest Texas Panhandle was starting to move more northeast. The low should continue to move to the northeast through tonight and it should be just northeast of Kansas City by 12z on Saturday morning. A batch of rain and snow has developed on the leading edge of the low across the central and eastern Panhandles. Snowfall accumulations on grassy surfaces could reach 1 to 2 inches in the eastern Oklahoma Panhandle and the northeast Texas Panhandle as thees areas will be in the precipitation the longest in the northeast quad of the upper level low.
217 AM MDT Sat Nov 5 2022 Current surface map show low pressure over southern Alberta, with warm front into eastern Montana/Wyoming. With tight pressure gradient and secondary trof/pressure rise bubble across far northwest South Dakota. Could see an inch or two of snow in the higher elevations of the northern Black Hills.
Forecast soundings indicate there may be a brief period when low- level temps are near freezing and could support snow at the ground, but this is near sunrise just before precip exits, as the column quickly dries out by mid-morning. Model guidance shows the upper low heading into northwest MO by sunrise as well, pushing the dynamics for ascent off to our northeast pretty quickly as we go through the morning. The pattern becomes more amplified to start the next work week as the next upper trough digs into the west coast with ridging developing over the Gulf of Mexico and the southeast CONUS.
The net result will be an increase in west-southwesterly winds once again owing to modest pressure falls from the deepening lee cyclone, with winds increasing to around 15-25 mph with locally higher gusts by the early afternoon hours. W-SWLY breezes will persist overnight as the lee cyclone drifts southeastward, with much milder temperatures expected early Sunday morning.
As the low tracks northeast, the bands of precipitation may pivot a bit farther northward, but may or may not make it as far north as the Omaha Metro. High pressure slides over the Missouri River Valley leading to seasonable, dry weather through the weekend.
Temperatures climbing into the low to mid 70s today, with winds staying up overnight and helping keep overnight lows up as well.
Weak ridging is forecast to develop along the Texas Coast Sunday with southwest flow aloft over South Central Texas. At the surface, weak high pressure centered over Central Texas this morning will move east this afternoon, and a weak southwest to southeast flow will develop this afternoon and strengthening Sunday. High temperatures Sunday are forecast to be in the low to mid 80s for most locations.
In spite of strong SSWly flow aloft to the west and vigorous short wave over the lower/mid MS valley lifting NNE, trajectory of wave well to the north and west and entrenched upper high centered over the mid-Atlantic and SE states will keep most large lift and convection away from the forecast area.
At the surface we will have breezy southwesterly and westerly winds ahead of the next approaching sfc trof. This warmer and drier air along with the breezy winds will lend itself to a few areas of near critical fire weather concerns this afternoon. Tonight another cold front will move through with the sfc trof and will swing winds around to the northwest and bring slightly cooler temps for tomorrow.
(Today through Sunday afternoon) Much cooler and drier air has arrived this morning under clear skies, resulting in excellent radiational cooling for some locations. A few locations will see sub-freezing temperatures around the Marfa Plateau and northern Lea County.
310 AM MDT Sat Nov 5 2022 Main focus for today will be the high wind event developing within the next couple hours. A cold front will be in hot pursuit with a rain band developing ahead of it and quickly moving through the area this morning and exiting by about noon. Now as this Low intensifies and moves across Saskatchewan it develops a strong pressure gradient which will be responsible for the strong winds over the CWA today. As the Low moves east this afternoon slacking of the pressure gradient should allow winds to slowly decrease overnight.
(Today through Sunday) Cold front has moved through the near shore waters with most of the shower activity over the Gulf waters. Otherwise, drier air will move into the area behind the cold front with clouds diminishing by the afternoon. Temperatures will be mild inland tonight while lows will be in the lower 60s coastal region as low clouds return. Mid level ridge will build over south Texas on Sunday and expect temperatures will warm back to above normal levels.
The cold front over Oregon is moving south and will move into NorCal this morning. An inch or two of snowfall accumulation will be possible over the higher passes later today, with perhaps a few more inches Sunday. Most precipitation will end overnight, but the higher peaks may see 8 inches or so through Sunday with lingering showers.
The 12z sounding at KEY sampled falling geopotential heights at nearly all isobaric vertical surfaces, with the most notable falls in the low-levels. This is a response to general troughiness east of the Bahamas in the southwestern North Atlantic. A marked waterspout outbreak occurred yesterday in the vicinity of the Lower Keys, and given similar sounding structure today, this may occur yet again today if the steering flow can be light and northeasterly enough this afternoon to support. An area of high pressure will extend southward to the Florida Panhandle through the weekend.
Valley rain and mountain snow is expected across much of northern NV this morning, which will extend south to around the Highway 50 corridor this afternoon.
(Rest of Today) Showers are moving into the area from the west along a prefrontal trough.
A shallow layer of moisture remains upstream of the Front Range with some flurries mainly over the ridges. It will likely be nasty over the higher elevations north of Rabbit Ears and Cameron passes, but we expect the impacts on those highways to be more moderate with accumulations more like 6 inches through tonight so the advisory looks appropriate.
Plenty of afternoon sun will allow a rebound into the lower 70s for afternoon highs. The front is forecast to stall over the NW Gulf tonight as an upper trof over the central CONUS lifts off to the NE, then retreat back north through the area on Sunday, bringing a small chance of mainly afternoon showers and thunderstorms, but otherwise just returning a warm and humid airmass back into the region.
At least some wind gusts of 50 mph or more look likely in the High Wind Warning area.
642 AM CDT Sat Nov 5 2022 (Today through Sunday) Cold front has moved through the near shore waters with most of the shower activity over the Gulf waters. Otherwise, drier air will move into the area behind the cold front with clouds diminishing by the afternoon. Temperatures will be mild inland tonight while lows will be in the lower 60s coastal region as low clouds return. Mid level ridge will build over south Texas on Sunday and expect temperatures will warm back to above normal levels.
The front is the reason it feels like the season the warmer temps made us forgot. We begin this 5th of November on a seasonably cool note with temps ranging from the low 50s in our northern counties to low 60s along the coast. The front will stall offshore on Saturday before creeping northward as a warm front on Sunday bringing WAA and low level moisture advection in its wake. However, these models may be a bit too optimistic due to the building mid/upper level ridge that will dominate our weather through much of the upcoming week. The suppressive nature of the ridge is expected to mitigate PoPs.
516 AM MDT Sat Nov 5 2022 Current surface map show low pressure over southern Alberta, with warm front into eastern Montana/Wyoming. With tight pressure gradient and secondary trof/pressure rise bubble across far northwest South Dakota. Could see an inch or two of snow in the higher elevations of the northern Black Hills.
The first area is in association with an upper level trough and surface cold front moving eastward across Alabama later today. High temperatures are expected to be mainly in the low to mid 80s with overnight lows mainly in the mid to upper 60s.
When combined with cooling aloft from the upper trough moving over, ice crystals will be reintroduced to the system leading to an expansion of rain. Temperatures at the surface look marginal for much accumulation with lows bottoming out in the lower 30s where snow can be expected. With wetbulb temperatures at or a degree or two above freezing and the short duration of snow before the upper support departs to the north and east, accumulations will likely be an inch or less and mainly on grassy or elevated surfaces. Winds may gust to 40 mph in northeastern MO as the low departs from the area. Northeastern MO will likely be stuck in the lower 50s or upper 40s as cloud cover will linger longer in that area.
624 AM CDT Sat Nov 5 2022 (Today through Sunday afternoon) Much cooler and drier air has arrived this morning under clear skies, resulting in excellent radiational cooling for some locations. A few locations will see sub-freezing temperatures around the Marfa Plateau and northern Lea County.
A strong 700mb jet overhead will bring continued wind impacts to all of southeastern Idaho through tonight as magnitudes generally increase through early afternoon, at which time the cold front will pass and winds will subside thereafter. Winds in excess of 50-60 mph are expected across the Arco Desert, portions of the Snake River Plain and along mountain ridgelines. Snow levels will generally be 5,500 feet and above prior to temperatures dropping behind the cold front early this afternoon, however the bulk of precipitation will have fallen by this time. Due to a combination of warmer temperatures under southerly flow and shadowing, the Snake Plain and Magic Valley can generally expect just a dusting.
1110 AM MDT Sat Nov 5 2022 Current surface map show low pressure over southern Alberta, with warm front into eastern Montana/Wyoming. With tight pressure gradient and secondary trof/pressure rise bubble across far northwest South Dakota. Could see an inch or two of snow in the higher elevations of the northern Black Hills.
117 PM CDT Sat Nov 5 2022 (Today through Sunday Night ) Cold front continues to move across the state this morning and is expected to be along the Mississippi River around sunrise. In the wake of the system, much cooler, drier and overall calmer conditions return to the county warning area. Lingering showers will remain possible early this morning over the east and southeast but will exit the region fairly quickly as high pressure moves across the southern plains. Temperatures will range from the upper 50s to upper 60s today with skies becoming mostly sunny as the upper low pulls away. Upper pattern starts to amplify as early as Sunday with western troughing and eastern ridging resulting in broad southwest flow aloft. This change will allow a warm front to lift through the majority of the state Sunday night.
(This evening through Sunday Night) Benign conditions remain in place for the rest of the afternoon and into the evening behind yesterday's cold frontal passage. However, the drier and cooler conditions behind the departed front will be short-lived as the boundary pushes back onshore as a warm front overnight.
115 PM CDT Sat Nov 5 2022 (Today through Sunday) Cold front has moved through the near shore waters with most of the shower activity over the Gulf waters. Otherwise, drier air will move into the area behind the cold front with clouds diminishing by the afternoon. Temperatures will be mild inland tonight while lows will be in the lower 60s coastal region as low clouds return. Mid level ridge will build over south Texas on Sunday and expect temperatures will warm back to above normal levels.
) Cold front moves through tonight into Sunday morning.
(Tomorrow through Saturday) Warm front will begin to lift north on Sunday, moving into far southeast Oklahoma late Sunday afternoon/evening.
1147 AM CDT Sat Nov 5 2022 (Today through Sunday afternoon) Much cooler and drier air has arrived this morning under clear skies, resulting in excellent radiational cooling for some locations. A few locations will see sub-freezing temperatures around the Marfa Plateau and northern Lea County.
/Issued 1135 AM CDT Sat Nov 5 2022/ /Through Sunday/ Deep northwest flow behind a departing low pressure system will result in a sunny afternoon and clear night across the region. This pattern will also yield a deepening lee trough across the Central High Plains, bringing an increase in low level moisture through the day. Plenty of sun and increasing low level warm air advection Sunday will result in above normal temperatures with highs from the middle 70s in the northeast to the lower 80s in the west.
We'll warm into the low to mid 70s this afternoon. Even with lingering light showers, the cooler airmass will make for a fairly-pleasant day (so long as you don't mind the damp. Plenty of afternoon sun will allow a rebound into the lower 70s for afternoon highs. The front is forecast to stall over the NW Gulf tonight as an upper trof over the central CONUS lifts off to the NE, then retreat back north through the area on Sunday, bringing a small chance of mainly afternoon showers and thunderstorms, but otherwise just returning a warm and humid airmass back into the region.
1117 AM CDT Sat Nov 5 2022 A cold front is pushing across West TN and north MS this morning. Temps will be cooler today but not cold since the front was of Pacific origin.
Although we will still have dry air in place at the surface, and only a few mid/upper level clouds moving across the area, overnight lows should be much warmer. This will be due to winds remaining gustier, keeping the low levels mixed, and not allowing radiational cooling to tank temperatures back down into the 30s.
The combination of strong solar insolation and downsloping winds will contribute to 850-mb temperatures increasing by around 6-8C, resulting in a much warmer afternoon than yesterday with highs in the mid 60s to near 70F. Shortly before sunrise Sunday morning, a strong upper level trough moving east across the far northern plains/southern Canada will push a dry cold front through southwest KS. Strong north to northeast winds behind the front will halt the rapid warming trend keeping afternoon highs in the low to mid 60s.
The Florida Keys will be sandwiched between a broad upper-level trough over the southwestern North Atlantic and a strong high over the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic.
1211 PM CDT Sat Nov 5 2022 (Rest of Today) Showers are moving into the area from the west along a prefrontal trough.
111 PM CDT Sat Nov 5 2022 A cold front is pushing across West TN and north MS this morning. Temps will be cooler today but not cold since the front was of Pacific origin.
Meanwhile, KCBX radar showed a cold front advancing into our CWA from the north-northwest. Surface winds: SE-SW 15-25kt with gusts 35-45kt ahead/along cold front.
Temperatures will be slightly cooler across northern and parts of western Oklahoma.
Given the cold air advection and lack of cloud cover, lows tonight should range in the low 40s and 50s. However, by tomorrow, the cold front that pushed through the region will already begin to back track, pulling back north in the form of a warm front. This warm front will also allow for a potentially narrow band of shower and thunderstorm activity to develop and move north with the front.
349 PM CDT Sat Nov 5 2022 (Issued 349 PM CDT Sat Nov 5 2022) Tonight and Sunday: Low pressure over southwest Wisconsin this afternoon will lift quickly to Lake Superior by early evening. Strong winds will continue across southern Wisconsin into early evening as the low moves by. Winds will pick up a bit tomorrow morning, as the low level jet moves overhead. High temps tomorrow will be cooler, but still a few degrees above normal for the first week of November.
(The rest of today ) At mid morning the clearing line was moving into Western Arkansas and should continue to push off to the east today as the mid/upper level trof axis exits the region. an area of low pressure is forecast to develop lee of Rocky Mountains into Southeast Colorado. The combination of mostly clear skies and a return southerly low level flow interacting with the cooler/drier airmass over the region.
Much cooler air is expected to filter in from the north heading into Sunday.
135 PM CDT Sat Nov 5 2022 KEY MESSAGE: - Near-critical fire weather conditions expected across western and southern Minnesota Sunday An area of low pressure continues to track to our east across Wisconsin, with a widespread cloud shield and band of precipitation covering most of the state.
(This afternoon through Sunday night) Not much going on in the short term in the wake of yesterday's trough. Sunday, flow aloft transitions from northwest to southwest as the next trough begins developing off the west coast. Finally, Sunday night, the LLJ redevelops, advecting lavish Gulf moisture into the region and keeping overnight mins well above normal, despite a cold front backdooring the northeast.
Upper flow will go more zonal tonight and then begin to back to the southwest Sunday afternoon as the next trough moves into the Pacific Northwest. Areas across the southern South Plains and southern Rolling Plains may experience more downslope winds and thus warmer temperatures.
Cooler air will also slowly filter in tonight as the main cold front enters the midstate, with lows falling into the 40s/50s across our northwest counties.
1235 PM CDT Sat Nov 5 2022 (The rest of today ) At mid morning the clearing line was moving into Western Arkansas and should continue to push off to the east today as the mid/upper level trof axis exits the region. an area of low pressure is forecast to develop lee of Rocky Mountains into Southeast Colorado. The combination of mostly clear skies and a return southerly low level flow interacting with the cooler/drier airmass over the region.
/NEW/ /Through Sunday/ Deep northwest flow behind a departing low pressure system will result in a sunny afternoon and clear night across the region. This pattern will also yield a deepening lee trough across the Central High Plains, bringing an increase in low level moisture through the day. Plenty of sun and increasing low level warm air advection Sunday will result in above normal temperatures with highs from the middle 70s in the northeast to the lower 80s in the west.
253 PM EDT Sat Nov 5 2022 (This afternoon through Sunday) Cold front is currently situated across the Mississippi River Valley. High pressure continues across the western Atlantic with a ridge axis stretching into much of Georgia. Regional radar shows the leading edge of the precip out ahead of the cold front.
303 PM CDT Sat Nov 5 2022 Winds will diminish late this afternoon and this evening following the cold front that pushed through central IL today.
851 PM CDT Sat Nov 5 2022 Winds will diminish late this afternoon and this evening following the cold front that pushed through central IL today.
(Tonight through Sunday) A cold front was still west of Central Alabama as evident by the 60s surface dew points. A pre-frontal trough and weak convergence was located through the heart of Central Alabama north to south. Rising heights aloft will lead to warmer conditions locally.
622 PM CDT Sat Nov 5 2022 Winds will diminish late this afternoon and this evening following the cold front that pushed through central IL today.
634 PM CDT Sat Nov 5 2022 (This afternoon through Sunday night) Not much going on in the short term in the wake of yesterday's trough. Sunday, flow aloft transitions from northwest to southwest as the next trough begins developing off the west coast. Finally, Sunday night, the LLJ redevelops, advecting lavish Gulf moisture into the region and keeping overnight mins well above normal, despite a cold front backdooring the northeast.
(This afternoon through Sunday) Cold front is currently situated across the Mississippi River Valley. High pressure continues across the western Atlantic with a ridge axis stretching into much of Georgia. Regional radar shows the leading edge of the precip out ahead of the cold front.
Temperatures this evening are in the lower 50s to lower 60s.
An inch or two of snowfall accumulation will be possible over the higher passes later today, with perhaps a few more inches Sunday.
635 PM CDT Sat Nov 5 2022 (This evening through Sunday Night) Benign conditions remain in place for the rest of the afternoon and into the evening behind yesterday's cold frontal passage. However, the drier and cooler conditions behind the departed front will be short-lived as the boundary pushes back onshore as a warm front overnight.
451 PM MDT Sat Nov 5 2022 The H5 trough continue to sweep across southern Canada, with a strong jet sweeping around the bottom of the trough into southern MT/northern WY. Once the H5 trough moves farther east and a weak ridge briefly pushes in, the moisture tap will shut down and winds will relax considerably overnight tonight. On Sunday, the next trough starts to deepen along the PacNW Coast, which will turn local flow from the southwest.
Much warmer daytime temperatures to finish out the weekend before another storm impacts the region.
1207 AM CDT Sun Nov 6 2022 (This evening through Sunday Night) Benign conditions remain in place for the rest of the afternoon and into the evening behind yesterday's cold frontal passage. However, the drier and cooler conditions behind the departed front will be short-lived as the boundary pushes back onshore as a warm front overnight.