Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
423 AM EDT Sat Aug 15 2020 Weak low pressure in eastern Kentucky will slowly move northeast today and tonight.
A wave of low pressure will ride along this boundary over the weekend, passing just south of the state.
The combination of an approaching cold front and increasingly diffluent flow aloft supports the continued chance of showers and storms overnight, mainly for areas west of the Mississippi River. Warm front extended from southern MN to eastern MO with a cold front from eastern SD to nw KS. Dewpoints were pushing into the lower to mid 70s west of the warm front, as indicated by plenty of cumulus seen on visible satellite loops.
Composite ADV_LPW-700-500 MB shows a shearing out circulation across northwest Lower Michigan early this morning, with the stronger upper level trough over the upper Mississippi Valley making good progress to the east. The subtle 500 MB ridging does not look to be sufficient to cap activity, as forecasted NAM soundings also indicate no cap in place. Guidance in good agreement with upper 80s for highs today, a degree or two warmer compared to yesterday. Much higher pops with the good frontal forcing/Upper level PV advection swinging through late tonight/early Sunday, with the front and 850 MB Theta-E ridge now progged to exit east by noon.
1014 PM MDT Fri Aug 14 2020 Upper trough axis continues to shift eastward with convection ongoing across the Upper Midwest. Cooler air has settled into the forecast area this afternoon behind cold front. Warm air advection overnight will bring warmer air to the region for the weekend. Upstream, upper ridge axis will slowly spread eastward resulting in warmer and drier weather for the Northern Plains through at least the first half of the week. Longer range ensembles hint at the continued influence of upper level ridging across the western half of the country.
With relatively lower freezing levels, hail up to 1. Northwest flow aloft remains across the region into Sunday, with surface ridging building to end the weekend.
256 AM CDT Sat Aug 15 2020 It will be hot again today, but models are showing that the thermal ridge will be farther west so temps should be a few degrees cooler than yesterday.
Through the short term period, highs will be in the middle 80s, and lows are forecast to decrease from the mid to upper 60s tonight, to the lower to middle 60s by Mon night. , with a trough from the Great Lakes to Tennessee and Lower Mississippi Valley regions.
356 AM EDT Sat Aug 15 2020 Crossing low pressure will bring showers and some storms to the area today. Most of Sunday looks dry before a cold front will bring another shot of showers/storms late in the day. Models continue to point to the highest probability of substantial rainfall to lie south of Pittsburgh in close proximity to the surface wave. The cold front will move through late Sunday night, and may offer a few showers prior to its passage.
Longwave trough currently stretches from the Great Lakes to the northern Gulf. At the surface, a broad area of low pressure is centered across the Gulf States. This low pressure will also move east through tomorrow, dragging a weak frontal boundary in its wake. NListemaa The long period picks up on Sunday night as the 500 mb trough pushes off toward the east while northwest flow sets up, driving slightly drier air into the CWA.
Tonight and Saturday The latest RAP analysis and satellite/radar imagery show low pressure over the eastern Dakotas and a cold front extending from the low southwest across the central Plains. Strong to severe convection continues ahead of the low over northern Minnesota, though has been weakening over the past few hours. The cold front will continue to march east and move into central and north-central WI after midnight. With partial clearing in the afternoon, temps to warm into the middle 70s to near 80, which is about 5 degrees cooler than today.
The 0z soundings and current WV imagery show a mid-level trough across the Tennessee Valley and an upper-level trough moving east across the Mississippi River Valley. As this trough shifts slowly eastward today, likely to categorical PoPs will continue across the area, generally east of Interstate 75 and across the East TN mountains.
With the flow shifting and some additional moisture available with the mid-level trough sneaking into Southwest Florida, there could be some cooler temperatures thanks to the added cloud cover and possible convection.
Today Through Sunday An upper ridge is centered over the desert southwest and providing a northerly flow over the southern Plains. This ridge will expand through Sunday and the flow over Arkansas will become northwest. A cold front will enter north Arkansas this afternoon. Highs today will be in the lower to mid 90s and in the upper 80s to mid 90s Sunday.
335 AM CDT Sat Aug 15 2020 Surface analysis had a trough situated from central Wisconsin into eastern and south-central Iowa. A cold front and northwesterly wind shift will bring a chance for a few showers and storms along and west of the Mississippi River through mid morning, and then in the east mid morning through the afternoon. For this afternoon, steady NNW winds of 10-20 mph will usher in lower humidity with dewpoints falling into the 50s along/west of the Mississippi River and into the low to mid 60s in the far eastern counties.
Warm upper level ridging remained over the Desert SW, while upper troughing was amplifying over eastern CONUS. A weak upper level low within the troughing over the IN/OH border had trough extending towards the Tennessee Valley. Much of the central and western part of the forecast area may be completely dry on Saturday in the wake of the trough passage. The more noticeably airmass change will occur after a cold front drops southeast on Sunday.
1122 PM CDT Fri Aug 14 2020 A cold front will push across the state on Saturday, bringing a chance for scattered thunderstorms. Quiet and seasonable conditions are expected on Sunday, as high pressure builds across the Midwest. 1026 mb high pressure centered over Quebec has a ridge axis extending southwest into central IL. A cold front currently stretched from 1005 mb low pressure in SE ND, south into central NE, will track east across the area Saturday afternoon and evening. Due to the weak forcing have kept pops on the low side around 30 percent. A weak high pressure ridge will build east towards the mid Mississippi River Valley on Sunday.
322 AM EDT Sat Aug 15 2020 Improving weather starts today as the upper level Low over us moves away and drier air aloft moves in. Before the upper low completely exits, isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are again forecast for this afternoon. This change will feature an expanding upper- level ridge over the western US and a deepening upper-level low over the Hudson Bay with a trough extending through the eastern US. This pattern will bring record setting heat across the western US while across the eastern US unseasonably cooler temperatures for mid August and more comfortable dew points. Low level moisture ahead of this front with dew points still in the low 70s could lead to some scattered showers/t'storms for the afternoon.
Low temperatures will range from the low 70s in the west to mid 70s in the east. /EC/ AS steep upper ridging continues to build over the western US, an upper level flow pattern will remain over the MS River Valley as a result. Although temperatures will reach the low to mid 90s, widespread heat stress is not anticipated due to lower humidities.
306 AM CDT Sat Aug 15 2020 A few showers and thunderstorms remain behind the cold front across the northern Permian Basin and an outflow boundary across the extreme southwestern Texas Panhandle and northern South Plains. The upper ridge is expected to shift slightly westward through the day placing the region in mostly northerly to northwesterly flow aloft. This will result in lower thicknesses across the FA and, along with northeasterly to easterly winds, will help to keep temps cooler than yesterday by 5 to 10 degrees. The cold front and outflow boundary should remain near/over the FA this afternoon and could, along with convection from the elevated terrain of NM, provide scattered shower and thunderstorm activity again this afternoon under a weakness in the upper ridge.
With the frontal passage this morning, noticeably cooler temperatures will be observed today; highs in the low to mid 80s can be expected. This is primarily due to the fact that the Mid/lower Missouri Valley will remain caught between a stout ridge to the west and a lumbering trough to the east. A cold front had moved into northwestern Missouri and will move thru the terminals btn 09Z-11Z veering lgt and vrb winds to the north btn 5-10kts thru the remainder of the TAF pd.
A cold front extended to the southwest, and this will be the main focus for surface-based convection.
317 AM CDT Sat Aug 15 2020 The cold front at 3 am was moving south of the region with just spotty showers remaining in extreme southeast NE and southwest IA. This will result in a very comfortable top 10 summer day with below normal highs in the lower 80s, sunny skies and winds less than 10 mph. For Sunday, it will be another fine day, but temperatures will be a little warmer back into the mid to upper 80s.
One concern is how this region of rain cooled recovers this afternoon before the main line of convection initiates off the approaching cold front. There is a good consensus between the high resolution convective allowing models (CAMs) to have the convection fire off the cold front oriented north to south across Minnesota nearly aligned with I- 35.
1145 PM MDT Fri Aug 14 2020 The cold front stopped along the continental divide this morning, with areas north of the front seeing cooler temperatures and light and variable winds, while southern WY continues with breezy west winds and hot and dry conditions. The accompanying midlevel trough is already sweeping across the northern plains, with H5 ridge starting to build back across the state. The high pressure will also help lessen the winds across the state tonight into tomorrow, with westerly winds lowering to 10 to 15 for the southern counties, and generally 10 mph or less to the north. The weekend will close out with continued warm and dry conditions as the ridge across the southwestern CONUS amplifies further, keeping the area generally under a dry northwest flow.
1145 PM CDT Fri Aug 14 2020 Little change in the forecast to note as models remain consistent in advecting an upper trough eastward along the Canadian border into the Great Lakes sending an attendant cold front southward through Missouri on Saturday.
SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday): Strong 500mb high pressure will continue across the Southern Plains, centered over Arizona. Strong large-scale subsidence and dry air in the low levels will keep conditions rain- free.
144 AM EDT Sat Aug 15 2020 Slightly drier should help keep the higher rain and storm chances inland of the terminals, though some brief bouts of sub-VFR cannot be ruled out if a cell were to come near a site.
352 AM CDT Sat Aug 15 2020 Weak upper trough remains across the area with a rather wet airmass. In addition, a few showers/storms over the lower portions of the Louisiana coastal parishes.
231 AM MDT Sat Aug 15 2020 Upper ridge settles into the Four Corners today resulting in weak northwest flow aloft over the central High Plains while a post frontal upslope regime continues at the surface.
VFR conditions will continue as high pressure dominates the region. Very dry air in the low levels under large-scale high pressure will allow skies to remain mostly clear tonight and through much of the day on Saturday. /issued 220 PM CDT Fri Aug 14 2020/ SHORT TERM (Tonight through Saturday Night): 500 mb high pressure centered over the Desert Southwest will continue to be extended over Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley during the period. After holding at near to below normal levels in the wake of Hurricane Hanna, temperatures are beginning to creep into above normal levels due to the presence of the 500 mb ridge and the steady drying of previously-soaked and flooded soils from Hanna rains.
The mid to upper level ridge over the southern Rockies will drift westward into the Great Basin on Sunday. But the eastward extension of the ridge will continue to be over central and south Texas during the period.
At 08Z the stronger area of storms had pushed east of the area with outflow turning winds around to the northwest at OVS/DEH, however the cold front lagged as ONA still had a dewpoint in the mid 60s with lower 60s and northwest winds working into RST/FKA.
VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF period as high pressure remains in control. /issued 347 AM CDT Sat Aug 15 2020/ SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday): Strong 500mb high pressure will continue across the Southern Plains, centered over Arizona. Strong large-scale subsidence and dry air in the low levels will keep conditions rain- free.
A weak cold front was pushing south across central and western Kansas early this morning.
The cold front at 3 am was moving south of the region with just spotty showers remaining in extreme southeast NE and southwest IA. This will result in a very comfortable top 10 summer day with below normal highs in the lower 80s, sunny skies and winds less than 10 mph. For Sunday, it will be another fine day, but temperatures will be a little warmer back into the mid to upper 80s.
A cold front in Missouri will drop into north Arkansas this afternoon and bring isolated showers and thunderstorms to the north. Today Through Sunday An upper ridge is centered over the desert southwest and providing a northerly flow over the southern Plains. This ridge will expand through Sunday and the flow over Arkansas will become northwest. A cold front will enter north Arkansas this afternoon. Highs today will be in the lower to mid 90s and in the upper 80s to mid 90s Sunday.
Surface analysis had a trough situated from central Wisconsin into eastern and south-central Iowa. A cold front and northwesterly wind shift will bring a chance for a few showers and storms along and west of the Mississippi River through mid morning, and then in the east mid morning through the afternoon. For this afternoon, steady NNW winds of 10-20 mph will usher in lower humidity with dewpoints falling into the 50s along/west of the Mississippi River and into the low to mid 60s in the far eastern counties.
Upper trough axis continues to pivot across the TN Valley this morning with the consequent surface wave sliding east into NC/SC at this time. JB Chattanooga Airport, TN 86 69 90 70 89 / 50 20 10 0 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 83 68 87 68 86 / 60 40 10 10 10 Oak Ridge, TN 84 67 88 68 87 / 60 30 10 10 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 81 65 83 64 83 / 80 50 20 10 10.
753 AM EDT Sat Aug 15 2020 Dry and pleasant conditions with near seasonable temperatures will prevail through the weekend as high pressure settles over the North Country.
These waves are embedded in northwest flow aloft associated with the building H5 long wave ridge through the western part of the CONUS.
Degree of moisture in the low levels seems to be the culprit. An intense ridge with heights around 600 dm centered over the southwest this weekend won't move much at all for the next 10 days. The longwave trough will be confined to the eastern Great Lakes and east coast.
A weak cold front will sink southward into Neb. SFC based CAPE values around 2500 J/KG should materialize within the higher theta-e air along and just ahead of the front. Upper level high pressure expands and strengthens across the western CONUS during the upcoming week. North to northwest flow aloft across our region will prevail on the eastern periphery of the high.
519 AM MDT Sat Aug 15 2020 Upper ridge settles into the Four Corners today resulting in weak northwest flow aloft over the central High Plains while a post frontal upslope regime continues at the surface.
Improving weather starts today as the upper level Low over us moves away and drier air aloft moves in. Before the upper low completely exits, isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are again forecast for this afternoon. This change will feature an expanding upper- level ridge over the western US and a deepening upper-level low over the Hudson Bay with a trough extending through the eastern US. This pattern will bring record setting heat across the western US while across the eastern US unseasonably cooler temperatures for mid August and more comfortable dew points. Low level moisture ahead of this front with dew points still in the low 70s could lead to some scattered showers/t'storms for the afternoon.
1016 AM EDT Sat Aug 15 2020 Dry and pleasant conditions with near seasonable temperatures will prevail through the weekend as high pressure settles over the North Country.
Farther west, under greater influence of the ridge, very warm temperatures and high humidity will yield afternoon heat index values around 108 or higher across SE TX, where a heat advisory is in effect for this afternoon.
1028 AM EDT Sat Aug 15 2020 With the ridge axis near or just to the south of Lake Okeechobee, a fairly deep layer of SW/SSW flow has developed. The mid Atlantic ridge axis which has be prevalent over the last week or so will begin to weaken today, with SSW/SW flow developing.
Sunday morning, after the showers and thunderstorms depart to the east, the Northland will be under the influence of a high pressure and should see cooler weather with highs in the mid 70s for the next couple days. Sunday night will be cool and dry, with lows in the low 50s in Wisconsin and upper 40s in northern Minnesota.
With the frontal passage this morning, noticeably cooler temperatures will be observed today; highs in the low to mid 80s can be expected. This is primarily due to the fact that the Mid/lower Missouri Valley will remain caught between a stout ridge to the west and a lumbering trough to the east. A cold front is moving through the terminals early this period with scattered showers and thunderstorms accompanying the front. Skies will quickly clear behind the front as a cooler and drier works in.
508 AM EDT Sat Aug 15 2020 Crossing low pressure will bring showers and some storms to the area today. Most of Sunday looks dry before a cold front will bring another shot of showers/storms late in the day. Models continue to point to the highest probability of substantial rainfall to lie south of Pittsburgh in close proximity to the surface wave. The cold front will move through late Sunday night, and may offer a few showers prior to its passage.
/issued 306 AM CDT Sat Aug 15 2020/ A few showers and thunderstorms remain behind the cold front across the northern Permian Basin and an outflow boundary across the extreme southwestern Texas Panhandle and northern South Plains. The upper ridge is expected to shift slightly westward through the day placing the region in mostly northerly to northwesterly flow aloft. This will result in lower thicknesses across the FA and, along with northeasterly to easterly winds, will help to keep temps cooler than yesterday by 5 to 10 degrees. The cold front and outflow boundary should remain near/over the FA this afternoon and could, along with convection from the elevated terrain of NM, provide scattered shower and thunderstorm activity again this afternoon under a weakness in the upper ridge.
The high pressure aloft is gradually drifting westward over Arizona, which has caused the winds to shift more northwesterly. Luckily there is not much of a gradient in proximity to the high so gusty surface winds will not be a big concern this afternoon. Overnight lows will run near normal with the relatively dry air mass in the lower levels allowing for efficient radiational cooling. The one exception would be locations in the thicker smoke which acts to keep temperatures slightly warmer. Tomorrow the high pressure aloft becomes situated over the Great Basin, and as result southeasterly winds might try to sneak some moisture through New Mexico and into southern Colorado.
1020 AM EDT Sat Aug 15 2020 The high pressure ridge axis will shift to across south Florida today with winds shifting to the W/SW this afternoon with the sea breeze enhancement. This pattern will continue into mid-week, as the ridge axis remains to the south with a trough to the north. S/SW winds at 5 to 10 knots this morning will become W/SW this afternoon with the sea breeze and the high pressure ridge axis settling south. W/SW flow will then continue through mid-week as the ridge axis remains to the south and a trough to the north. The ridge then starts to lift north over the area for the end of the week, with winds shifting back to the S/SE and evening/overnight showers and storms timing from off the land.
Northwest flow will be quickly replaced by an amplifying ridge of high pressure that is building over the entire western US. As the ridge continues to amplify, high temperatures will continue to climb as well.
The lower level falls are associated with the weakening of the ridge axis to our north. Highs will climb into the lower 90s with occasional anvil debris spreading southwest through the islands within the enhanced flow along the upper low's northwestern flank. Forecast soundings for later this afternoon (20Z-00Z) reveal a profile favorable for showers and storms to form along the Lower Keys.
A cold front will approach the region this evening. The cold front will continue SE on Sunday with a few showers and storms developing along the front by the afternoon across North MS and southeast parts of West TN. Highs will be a couple degrees cooler.
657 AM EDT Sat Aug 15 2020 Weak low pressure in eastern Kentucky will slowly move northeast today and tonight.
402 AM CDT Sat Aug 15 2020 Early this morning a cold front was positioned from Eastern Colorado through Western & North Central Kansas and extended northeast into the Upper MidWest. Hot and humid conditions are expected again today ahead of the approaching cold front forecast to move into the CWA this evening. This should keep the higher heat index values mainly south of I-40 this afternoon. there is a non-zero potential of a couple isolated showers/thunderstorms developing within the higher terrain locations of Northwest Arkansas along/near the wind shift. Cold front moves through the CWA tonight and is forecast to exit Southeast Oklahoma Sunday afternoon. cooler and drier conditions will be possible with lows tonight ranging from the mid 60s to mid 70s from north to south.
and Sunday A cold front was moving through north central and central WI early this morning.
Expect abundantly sunny conditions across the area today with temperatures rising into the lower 90s areawide. A cold front will move into northeast Arkansas late tonight, with a few showers and thunderstorms possible. A cold front will approach the region this evening. The cold front will continue SE on Sunday with a few showers and storms developing along the front by the afternoon across North MS and southeast parts of West TN. Highs will be a couple degrees cooler.
/Issued 402 AM CDT Sat Aug 15 2020/ Early this morning a cold front was positioned from Eastern Colorado through Western & North Central Kansas and extended northeast into the Upper MidWest. Hot and humid conditions are expected again today ahead of the approaching cold front forecast to move into the CWA this evening. This should keep the higher heat index values mainly south of I-40 this afternoon. there is a non-zero potential of a couple isolated showers/thunderstorms developing within the higher terrain locations of Northwest Arkansas along/near the wind shift. Cold front moves through the CWA tonight and is forecast to exit Southeast Oklahoma Sunday afternoon. cooler and drier conditions will be possible with lows tonight ranging from the mid 60s to mid 70s from north to south.