Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
225 AM CDT THU JUN 25 2015 UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS RESULTING IN NORTHERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. THE LOW CLOUD RISK APPEARS LESS FRIDAY MORNING THAN WE WILL LIKELY SEE THIS MORNING. AS THE UA RIDGE IS PROGGED TO BECOME RE-ESTABLISHED AND AMPLIFY NW OF THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION BY LATE WEEK. THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE SAID UA RIDGE IS SHOWN TO BE QUITE IMPRESSIVE AS 500 MB HEIGHT FIELDS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB TO AOA 597 DAM THAT WILL BE CENTERED ACROSS SERN NV/SWRN UT. WITH THE UA RIDGE TO OUR WEST THIS WILL RESULT IN NWRLY FLOW ALOFT DOMINATING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
336 AM EDT THU JUN 25 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD TOWARD THE REGION TODAY.
433 AM EDT THU JUN 25 2015 AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES WILL HOLD ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY.
APPEARS OUR CAP WILL GRADUALLY LIFT THROUGH THE DAY AS MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES TO RETREAT OUT OF THE TN VALLEY AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE THU. BIG PATTERN TRANSITION TAKES PLACE AS A TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY AND CUTS OFF OVER THE WEEKEND.
254 AM MDT THU JUN 25 2015 A CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE ORGANIZES AND CLOSES OFF OVER THE GREAT BASIN TODAY. TEMPERATURES ACROSS SW COLORADO WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER TOMORROW WITH MUCH LESSER CLOUD COVER IN PLACE. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS PARKED OVER THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH MOISTURE GRADUALLY WORKING AROUND THE RIDGE. THIS RING OF MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY FILL TOWARD THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE BY MIDWEEK WITH CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO INCREASE A LITTLE EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS WE MOVE OUT OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE NEW WORK WEEK.
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW LOOKS TO SHIFT WESTWARD TOWARDS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD PLACING WESTERN KANSAS UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. AT THE SURFACE, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING EAST OF THIS FEATURE ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS.
MUCH WARMER WEATHER REMAINS ON TRACK FOR TODAY. INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND. MEANWHILE UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER UTAH AND ARIZONA CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AND EXPAND. FORT ORD PROFILER SHOWS THE MARINE LAYER IS COMPRESSING AND THE AIRMASS ABOVE THE MARINE LAYER IS 6-7 DEGREES C WARMER THAN 24 HOURS AGO. AS A RESULT HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES WARMER OVER ALL AREAS TODAY WITH THE GREATEST WARMING INLAND.
THE FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AFTER THE LOW MOVES EAST.
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW LOOKS TO SHIFT WESTWARD TOWARDS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD PLACING WESTERN KANSAS UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. AT THE SURFACE, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING EAST OF THIS FEATURE ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS. FRIDAY IS TRENDING COOLER IN THE MODELS. AS A RESULT, HAVE GONE A LITTLE COOLER WITH HIGHS - MAINLY MID 80S. THERE MAY BE SOME LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS KEEPING TEMPS DOWN IN THE WAKE OF THE SYNOPTIC TROUGH.
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE FOUR CORNERS REGION ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN INTO FAR SOUTHWESTERN CANADA WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN INTO CENTRAL STATES. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES SLIDES INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO.
ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE THERE WAS A RIDGE ALONG THE FL PENINSULA AND A QUASI- STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS NC AND TN.
THE WRN RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO BUILD THROUGH THE DAY. WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH DEVELOPING UPSTREAM OVER THE NRN HIGH PLAINS. WITH COOLER CONDITIONS DEVELOPING BEHIND THE FRONT. WITH THE SRN PLAINS REMAINING BOOKENDED BETWEEN AN WRN RIDGE AND ERN TROUGH.
TEMPERATURES VERY TYPICAL FOR LATE JUNE RUNNING IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. THIS AS A LITTLE MORE MOISTURE RETROGRADES INTO THE REGION WITHIN A MID-LEVEL WEAKNESS/TROF BETWEEN EAST GULF AND MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS HIGHS. EFFECTIVELY CARVING OUT A DEEP EAST CONUS TROF.
109 AM CDT THU JUN 25 2015 WARMER FOR MOST TODAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA. A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO ONTARIO WILL BUILD TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. OTHERWISE LOOKS TO BE A FAIRLY NICE DAY WITH HIGHS SLIGHTLY COOLER IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. THURSDAY EVENING STARTS OUT WITH A WEAK TROF MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST.
TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS HAS WEAK RIDGE OVER THE PACIFIC COAST WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS LOCATED ACROSS THE DAKOTAS WITH LOW PRESSURE AND STATIONARY BOUNDARY ACROSS CENTRAL WYOMING. TEMPS LOOK TO BE ON THE COOLER SIDE. UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES. UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT.
AS WE SHIFT BACK TO A PATTERN DOMINATED BY A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE GREAT BASIN. FRIDAY WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY AS THE HIGH CENTER CONSOLIDATES THROUGH THE REGION AND THEN NORTH OF US.
354 AM EDT THU JUN 25 2015 AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES OVER THE COURSE OF THE NEXT 4 TO 5 DAYS. THE PATTERN WILL BE COOLER AND INITIALLY WETTER. LATE SEASON SURFACE CYCLONE WILL LIKELY PRODUCE COOL RAINY WEATHER FOR MOST OF THE WEEKEND.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE SILVER STATE RESULTING IN TRIPLE DIGIT TEMPERATURES.
BUT COOLER LAKESHORES. THE ZONAL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED OVER THE COMING DAYS DUE TO PRONOUNCED RIDGING OUT WEST.
THE LACK OF STRONG INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH CONTINUED HIGH FREEZING LEVELS WILL LIKELY LIMIT THE HAIL THREAT.
THE HIGH WILL RETURN FROM THE EAST BY FRIDAY WITH A BUILD AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL PERSIST OVER SRN CA THRU TONIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER THE SRN GREAT BASIN WILL EXPAND TOWARD SRN CA THU WHILE THE CENTER OF THE UPPER HI DRIFTS INTO NV BY LATE IN THE DAY. AN UPPER LOW WELL OFF THE CA COAST WILL DRIFT NORTHWARD.
BUT WITH STRONG WINDS AND AREAS OF BLOWING DUST POSSIBLE ON THE LOWER DESERTS DUE TO DISTANT STORMS. THURSDAY LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE A LESS ACTIVE DAY THEN WHAT WE SAW TODAY AS THE INVERTED TROF THAT HELPED TO TRIGGER TODAY/S ACTIVITY MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION. STORMS NOT LIKELY TO SURVIVE OVER THE LOWER DESERTS WITH SUCH MEAGER MOISTURE AVAILABILITY. HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE GREAT BASIN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY LEADING TO EVER SO SLIGHT LOWERING OF HIGH TEMPERATURES. MOISTURE STILL LOOKS MARGINAL WITH STORMS NOT VERY LIKELY OVER THE LOWER DESERTS.
252 AM EDT THU JUN 25 2015 A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION EARLY TODAY AND WILL STALL SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND BY THIS EVENING. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK EAST ALONG THE FRONT PASSING SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH.
A WARM FRONT STRETCHED FROM LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHWEST KANSAS INTO SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA THEN CURVED TOWARD NORTHEAST MISSOURI EARLY THIS MORNING. LOOKS SOMEWHAT DRIER FOR THE AREA AFTER TONIGHT AS RIDGE BUILDS IN THE WEST. AREA LOOKS TO REMAIN UNDER NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DURING THE PERIOD WITH SOME FLATTENING OF THE WESTERN RIDGE INDICATED BY LATE IN THE PERIOD.
WITH COOLER TEMPS AND MOIST CONDITIONS. THIS LOW WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA AND ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TONIGHT. REGARDLESS AS A NOD TO THE MODELS WILL MAINTAIN CHC POPS AND EVEN ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN ZONES LIKELY ON FRIDAY AS THE LOW PASSES TO OUR SOUTH.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THE UPPER HIGH IS EXPANDING ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN THIS MORNING AND IS FORECAST TO BE CENTERED OVER SWRN UT BY THIS AFTN. EXPECT SURFACE TEMPS RESPOND AS THE HIGH EXPANDS THE AIRMASS WARMS. FRIDAY SHOULD BE SIMILARLY DRY OR EVEN DRIER WITH JUST A SMALL CHANCE OF TSTMS OVER THE SRN MTNS AS THE HIGH REMAINS CENTERED JUST TO OUR WEST AND THE NORTHERLY FLOW EAST OF THE CENTER CONTINUES TO SPREAD DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA. HOWEVER THE HIGH DRAWS MOISTURE UP ITS WEST SIDE AND THIS MOISTURE WILL START TO INCREASE WITHIN THE HIGH THRU THE WEEKEND.
BROAD HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE SOUTHEASTERN US.
/ISSUED 223 PM CDT WED JUN 24 2015/ AN UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE MS VALLEY REGION TODAY WITH A WEAK WESTWARD MOVING INVERTED TROUGH JUST SW OF FAR WEST TX. THIS UPPER TROUGH HAS PROVIDED SOME WEAK FORCING FOR ASCENT OVER THE WESTERN ZONES (GENERALLY WEST OF THE PECOS RIVER), RESULTING IN SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THESE AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. THE UA INVERTED TROUGH LOOKS TO PRETTY MUCH DISSOLVE OVERNIGHT THEN UPPER RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS HEADED INTO THE WEEKEND.
337 AM EDT THU JUN 25 2015 TRANSITION PERIOD BEGINS TODAY AS DEEP LAYER HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO WEAKEN AND SLOWLY SINK SOUTHWARD. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA TODAY. DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE REMAIN AT AND ABOVE 850MB. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS WILL LIFT NORTHWARD AND SHEAR OUT BY THE WEEKEND EAST OF THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. AND THE MID/UPPER RIDGE WILL SINK SOUTHWARD INTO DEEP SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS.
243 AM CDT THU JUN 25 2015 THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO AMPLIFY TODAY WITH BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS AND A DEEPENING TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. AN ISOLATED SHOWER IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST ZONES THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO A VERY WEAK UPPER TROUGH IN THE GULF. THE NORTHWEST ZONES MAY REACH THE UPPER 90S BY AFTERNOON DUE TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
THE UPPER RIDGE CENTERED NEAR THE 4 CORNERS REGION WILL BUILD OVER THE WESTERN U. AND A TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION DEEPENS OVER THE EAST.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS BY LATE IN THE DAY THURSDAY. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW FIELD WILL ATTAIN SOME UPSLOPE COMPONENT WITH HIGHER CAPE LATE IN THE DAY THURSDAY. WE EXPECT CLUSTERS OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN UPSLOPE FAVORED AREAS WITH THE ACTUAL FRONT LIKELY STRUGGLING TO CONVECT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVEN INTO THE EVENING. FRIDAY IS TRENDING COOLER IN THE MODELS. AS A RESULT, HAVE GONE A LITTLE COOLER WITH HIGHS - MAINLY MID 80S. THERE MAY BE SOME LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS KEEPING TEMPS DOWN IN THE WAKE OF THE SYNOPTIC TROUGH.
A DISTURBANCE WAS MOVING THROUGH ECTRL WY AND SWRN SD WITH A ASSOCIATED AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS PRIMARILY BETWEEN GILLETTE AND CASPER ON THE WEST SIDE THROUGH PINE RIDGE SD ON THE EAST.
THERE HAS BEEN A WARM FRONT ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS THAT HAS BEEN MOVING TO THE NORTH. THE WARM FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON IS FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE MODELS HAD THIS MORNING AS WELL AS THE 12Z RUN OF THE MODELS THIS MORNING. THERE IS LITTLE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR CONVECTION TONIGHT AND THE LOW LEVEL JET IS A LITTLE FURTHER TO THE EAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER ACROSS THE AREA TOMORROW.
ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF EASTERN ARIZONA. WARMER THAN NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPS WILL ALSO PERSIST.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER BUT HOW MUCH WILL BE DETERMINED BY FRONTAL POSITION.
636 AM EDT THU JUN 25 2015 AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES WILL HOLD ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY.
UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO CONTROL OUR WEATHER TODAY. TEMPS WILL BE VERY WARM AGAIN TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S FOR MOST AREAS. IMPULSE WILL RIDE DOWN ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF OF HIGH PRESSURE RESULTING IN A COMPLEX OF STORMS MOVING DOWN OUT OF THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.
EXPECT INITIAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR OVER THE CHEYENNE RIDGE AND OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE BY EARLY AFTN WITH ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY DEVELOPING ALONG THE OUTFLOW BNDRY/COOL FNT AS IT MOVES INTO NERN CO BY MID TO LATE AFTN. OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN EXPECT WDLY SCT TSTMS THIS AFTN AS WELL INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. ALL OF THE MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A STRONG UPPER RIDGE DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN U. WITH COLORADO UNDER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DOWNSTREAM OF THE RIDGE.
332 AM EDT TUE AUG 11 2015 A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH OUR REGION THIS MORNING, THEN A COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE THIS EVENING.
TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND NEB. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. WITH RIDGE CONTINUING TO BUILD OVER THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. WARMER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE AREA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE RIDGE SLOWLY SLIDES OVER THE REGION. WILL EXPAND SLIGHT CHANCES ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST WY AND FAR WESTERN SD INTO THE EVENING AS WEAK ENERGY RIDES OVER THE RIDGE. WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S ACROSS THE PLAINS. WITH ADDITIONAL STORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF EASTERN WY POSSIBLY MOVING INTO PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST WY PLAINS LATE IN THE DAY.
Expect temperatures to heat up today as a warm ridge builds over the area.
332 AM CDT TUE AUG 11 2015 UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SPRAWLING OVERHEAD THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT WEST-NORTHWEST ACROSS NORTHWESTERN ZONES BY TONIGHT. RMCQUEEN THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MIGRATE WEST THIS WEEK AND EVENTUALLY PARK NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE RIDGE.
THIS IS THE RECIPE FOR COOLER AND DRIER AIR TO BUILD INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
249 AM CDT TUE AUG 11 2015 MODELS IN AGREEMENT NO SIGNIFICANT ISSUES TO CONTEND WITH AS AN UPPER RIDGE CURRENTLY RESIDING OVER THE WRN/CNTRL CONUS AMPLIFIES FURTHER OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WITH THE RIDGE AXIS SITUATED WELL WEST OF THE CNTRL PLAINS DURING THIS TIME.
AND IN SOME AREAS SLIGHTLY WARMER. AROUND THE SOUTHEAST SIDE OF THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND AHEAD OF A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
303 AM EDT TUE AUG 11 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE AREA.
425 AM EDT TUE AUG 11 2015 COLD FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY BACK THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THERE IS ALSO A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH SITUATED ACROSS CENTRAL GA. THE TROUGH AND FRONT SHOULD BE THE MAIN FOCI FOR CONVECTION TODAY. WHERE CLOUDS BREAK OUT IN THE VICINITY OF THE TROUGH AND/OR FRONT IS WHERE STORMS SHOULD INITIATE TODAY.
NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW A LARGE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF THE WESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE NATION WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA FOR THE DURATION OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
400 AM PDT TUE AUG 11 2015 A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE WEST COAST WILL MAINTAIN DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND WEAK ONSHORE LOWER LEVEL FLOW TODAY WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WITH AREAS OF NIGHT AND MORNING COASTAL LOW CLOUDS AND FOG EXTENDING INTO PORTIONS OF THE VALLEYS. HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST WILL STRENGTHEN INTO THE SOUTHWEST STATES. WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE WEST COAST WILL MAINTAIN DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND WEAK ONSHORE LOWER LEVEL FLOW TODAY WITH NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND A MARINE LAYER NEAR 2500 FEET DEEP WITH AREAS OF COASTAL LOW CLOUDS AND FOG EXTENDING INTO PORTIONS OF THE VALLEYS. HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST WILL MIGRATE WESTWARD AND STRENGTHEN BRINGING A WARMING TREND AND SHALLOWER MARINE LAYER.
THE AXIS OF THE HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS MINNESOTA TODAY AND SOUTH TO IOWA/WISCONSIN/CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW UPPER RIDGING SLOWLY WORKING ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEK. WITH THE RIDGE FLATTENING OUT AND THE FLOW BECOMING MORE ZONAL OVER THE WEEKEND.
645 AM EDT TUE AUG 11 2015 A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA TODAY AND BRING SHOWERS ALONG WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. SHRT TERM MODELS NOW BETTER DEFINING THE PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THE SFC TROF NOT ENTERING THE WRN ZONES. MARINE LYR AHD OF THE LOW WILL CONT TO PROTECT THE FCST AREA FROM CONV. UPR TROF CONTS TO DIG AND DEEPEN INTO THU. THEY WILL BE ASSISTED BY WEAKER WV ROTATING THRU THE TROF AS IT DEEPENS. TROF AXIS PASSES EAST OF THE AREA THU MRNG FLWD BY DRIER AIR AND SLOWLY RISING HGTS ALLOWING TEMPS TO RECOVER SOMEWHAT AND LIMITING THE DVLPMT OF SHWRS.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE REGION WITH 500MB HEIGHTS APPROACHING 590DAM. THIS IS INDICATIVE OF THE HOT RIDGE BUILDING IN.
RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST TONIGHT AND WEAK SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW SHOULD HOLD TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 60S ACROSS OUR WEST. EASTERN AREAS WILL AGAIN BE COOLER IN THE UPPER 50S AND MODELS HINTING AT LIGHT FOG LATE TONIGHT. AND DAYTIME MIXING TO SCOUR OUT THE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE MINIMAL NEAR THE RIDGE AXIS. A LARGE UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES.
404 AM EDT TUE AUG 11 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST THIS MORNING. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS EVENING. THE LOW WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY.
214 AM MDT TUE AUG 11 2015 THE MAIN WEATHER CONCERN OVER THE NEXT 72-HR PERIOD WILL FOCUS ON THE BUILDING H5/H7 RIDGE INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES. LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE WORKING AROUND THIS RIDGE COMPLEX WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP CLOUD COVER OVER MUCH OF THE CWA. MODELS ALSO CONTINUE TO SHOW A CUTOFF UPPER LOW WORKING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST WHICH IS GOING TO ADD FURTHER MOISTURE INTO THE ROCKIES.
THUNDERSTORMS W/ VERY HEAVY RAINFALL HAVE LOCKED ONTO THE CHEYENNE RIDGE OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. WILL NEED TO MONITOR VERY CLOSELY AS THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FEED SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUPPORT CONVECTIVE MAINTENANCE FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. RATHER AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS NORTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ROCKIES WITH OUR FORECAST AREA SEEING A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MIDLEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH MID WEEK.
SHORT TERM WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE DOMINATED BY A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE OREGON COAST. MOISTURE ROTATING AROUND THE LOW AND INTO THE FORECAST AREA IN UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND OR THUNDERSTORMS.
639 AM EDT TUE AUG 11 2015 COLD FRONT EXITS EAST BY AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION AND WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE NORTHLAND HAD LIGHT NW FLOW WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN NW ONTARIO AND NW MINNESOTA APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH. THE FREEZING LEVELS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE ARROWHEAD ARE RELATIVELY LOW. LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 50S. HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MIDDLE 70S IN THE EAST TO THE UPPER 70S IN THE WEST. A WEAK UPPER S/W WILL RIDE ALONG THE NRN EDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS EWD THE RIDGE WILL RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE REGION.
341 AM MDT TUE AUG 11 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL CONTINUE OVER THE SRN ROCKIES WITH WK MID LVL FLOW OVER THE AREA. ABUNDANT SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE COMBINED WITH A POSSIBLE WK DISTURBANCE WILL LEAD TO A BETTER CHC OF SHOWERS/TSTMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTN. EAST OF THE MTNS THE LOW LVL FLOW WILL INCREASE FM THE SSE AS A TIGHT GRADIENT DEVELOPS DUE TO LOW PRES OVER THE MTNS AND HIGH PRES OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS. MODELS HAVE THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER COLORADO.
THE TREND THEN IS FOR A SLIGHTLY COOLER AIRMASS OVERHEAD THROUGH THE LAST HALF OF THE WEEK. EVEN WITH THE HIGH HEAT. THE SUBSIDENCE THAT HAS BEEN OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS WILL DIMINISH AS THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE AREA DRIFTS OUT OF CENTRAL TX INTO THE PANHANDLE. AS THE UPPER HIGH PRESSURE AREA DRIFTS INTO THE ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
325 AM CDT TUE AUG 11 2015 ANOTHER DAY WHERE SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS UPPER TROUGH PUSHES A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THE AREA. SURFACE PRESSURE ANALYSIS SHOWS A DIFFUSE BOUNDARY OR PRESSURE TROUGH OVER NORTHWEST ALABAMA ALTHOUGH SURFACE DEWPOINTS DO NOT DROP OFF NOTICEABLY UNTIL THE OHIO VALLEY AND MIDWEST REGIONS. WILL GO WITH THE HIGHER POPS IN THE FAR SOUTH AND TAPER OFF TO ISOLATED IN THE NORTHWEST.
324 AM CDT TUE AUG 11 2015 QUIET WEATHER PREVAILED TONIGHT ACROSS THE REGION COURTESY OF A DRY NW FLOW ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE PLAINS. SKIES WERE MAINLY CLEAR FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WEST INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. THE DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL BLOCKING PATTERN. FEATURING A LONGWAVE RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES. THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEB AND THE DAKOTAS EARLY THIS MORNING SPREADS EAST TO ROUGHLY FROM KS THROUGH CENTRAL IA TO SW WI BY 12Z WED. THIS TRAJECTORY ALSO SUPPORTS HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. THE WEAKER SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AS THE RIDGE APPROACHES WILL PROVIDE ONLY LIGHT NORTH WINDS. RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD LEAD TO LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S IN THE COOLER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN VALLEYS TO THE LOWER 60S SOUTH.
633 AM EDT TUE AUG 11 2015 THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW A LARGE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF THE WESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE NATION WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA FOR THE DURATION OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
THERE WAS ANOTHER LINE OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION ALONG THE PRIMARY COLD FRONT. RSB A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING TUESDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE IN A NORTH TO SOUTH MANNER ACROSS THE AREA TUE MORNING.
At 00z Tuesday a 500mb ridge axis extended from the panhandle of Texas to eastern Montana. A 700mb ridge axis was located across western Kansas and western Oklahoma. A large area of convection earlier this evening was located west of this 700mb ridge axis and ahead of the upper level disturbance. The severe threat will be minimal today and tonight with any storms that develop as continued amplification the the upper ridge weakened the shear profiles. The general low level moisture transport signal will remain firmly anchored across the the western counties where the main if any thunderstorms chances will be located, and the low level jet may be the best mechanism for get a few thunderstorms going.
HOT CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD AS DEEP RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SITS OVERHEAD.
DRY AIR CONTINUES TO SPREAD INTO THE REGION AS A BROAD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.
AND EXPECT A VERY MOIST LOW LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE TO SUPPORT SOUTHWARD STORM DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING PARTICULARLY OVER NE LA/SW MS PER LATEST WRF GUIDANCE. /EC/ MODELS REMAIN IN AGREEMENT WITH THE FORECAST AREA BECOMING FIXED BETWEEN AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES AND THE STUBBORN UPPER RIDGE CENTERED NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION.
215 AM EDT TUE AUG 11 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S NORTHWEST TO UPPER 60S SOUTHEAST. WITH UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH ON TUESDAY A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MIDDLE 70S TO LOW 80S. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE TUESDAY NIGHT. UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL PERSIST WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES COOL. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD EAST INTO THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS AND RISING TEMPERATURES.
202 AM EDT TUE AUG 11 2015 A COLD FRONT APPROACHING TODAY WILL MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. THE HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS DISPLAY SCATTERED COVERAGE. WE USED THE COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE BECAUSE OF EXPECTED CLOUDINESS DURING MOST OF THE DAY. CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT SUPPORTS A CONTINUED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCE TONIGHT. CLOUDINESS AND MIXING ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT FAVORS THE WARMER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE. THE COLD FRONT MAY STALL IN THE COASTAL PLAIN WEDNESDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE UPPER TROUGHING CONTINUING OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE NATION THROUGH THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD. NUMEROUS SHOWERS/TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
HOWEVER CLOUDS WILL REMAIN RATHER COMMON THROUGH MID-WEEK WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES. FAIRLY TRANQUIL AND WARMER WEATHER RETURNS THEREAFTER. THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER OUR REGION HAS SHIFTED THROUGH ALL BUT THE EASTERN FRINGE OF THE CWA AT THIS POINT. ALONG THE RIDGES AND IN THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.