Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Recent water vapor imagery showing moisture streaming ENE from the southern Rockies ahead of a mean trough from Quebec into the central Plains. Some smaller scale waves were rotating through the main trough, notably apparent in north-central Nebraska and in northeast Colorado. The large-scale upper trough axis exits Friday morning with the front passing through a bit ahead of this so will keep some small precip chances in southeastern areas into Friday. Some residual moisture continues to be progged to linger in mainly western areas into the weekend as additional waves move southeast as the upper ridge amplifies in the western states. The upper ridge nudges east into the northern Plains with a better push of drier air into the region into the mid week for a drier forecast.
838 PM EDT Thu Jul 15 2021 High pressure ridging will prevail across the region from a center to the northeast Tonight. Western Atlantic High pressure ridge axis continues to extend westward across South Georgia.
749 PM PDT Thu Jul 15 2021 Onshore flow will persist with a trough of upper level low pressure over the northeast Pacific through much of the coming week.
411 AM EDT Fri Jul 16 2021 Water vapor imagery and RAP analysis show low amplitude ridging over the Rockies into s central Canada and low amplitude troffing over the Upper Mississippi Valley and Plains. Ridging looks to dominate this weekend as a high pressure block over the Desert Southwest slowly progs northward.
340 AM EDT Fri Jul 16 2021 The Bermuda High will ridge into the forecast area through the weekend providing a typical summertime pattern.
The dry air mass that kept storm coverage low yesterday will suppress rain chances again today, with isolated to scattered storms forecast this afternoon and the highest chances from around Interstate 4 south.
Diurnal cu took over in the afternoon and there were some gusty north winds behind last night's low pressure. This will lead to lows into the low to mid 50s, though we could see some 40s across the interior, especially around Doe Lake and the Baraga Plains. Models aren't suggesting much in the way of fog tonight, though with the high pressure moving overhead and yesterday/last night's pcpn, there could be some patchy shallow fog developing. Tomorrow should be similar to today, except a little warmer and lighter winds. With weak gradient flow, lake breezes are expected to develop off of both Lake Superior and Lake Michigan, which will bring some locally cooler temperatures along the shorelines. Ridging looks to dominate this weekend as a high pressure block over the Desert Southwest slowly progs northward.
A cold front will move across the area from northwest to southeast over the period.
The upper level trough will shift east across the forecast area this morning and the heavy rain axis will slide southeast during the remainder of the overnight hours through Friday morning, with the highest concentration of heavy rain over the southwest corner of the CWA.
242 AM CDT Fri Jul 16 2021 The mid/upper-level anticyclone centered over the Desert Southwest is forecast to expand eastward later today, resulting in an increase in subsidence aloft. Temperatures will be a bit hotter than the last few days, rising into the lower 90s area-wide.
354 AM CDT Fri Jul 16 2021 Today and Tonight: Early morning surface analysis had a >1020mb ridge nosing across our southern zones from the east. Water vapor imagery/RAP analysis showed this upper level trough over the central Plains but this trough will continue shifting east today and help lead to a greater coverage of convection this afternoon and then maintain convection across our northern zones tonight. Greenwood reached 95F yesterday but most of the CWA topped out in the lower 90s.
High pressure is located off of the Carolinas and H5 trough is over the MS Valley. The high pressure is making the eastward progress of the trough quite slow, and so we are looking at mostly diurnal scattered convection in this short term forecast period. Precip chances will increase this weekend as the trough inches closer.
So far, the southern/southeast/southwest fringes of the forecast have experienced the lowest visibilities, thanks to more clear skies.
152 AM EDT Fri Jul 16 2021 The Bermuda High will ridge into the forecast area through the weekend providing a typical summertime pattern.
255 AM CDT Fri Jul 16 2021 A cold front slowly tracking southeast across the region today and tonight, will bring scattered showers and storms.
An upper trough will move into the MS river valley by late today, then over the mid-south on Sat. This all before deepening on Sun as an upper low moves into the OH valley. On Sat and Sun, the upper trough is set up across the region, leading to widespread showers/storms. Finally later Mon, upper trough moves by and the frontal boundary gets pushed further to our south. Otw, Upper trough axis will be positioned just to our west by this evening.
401 AM EDT Fri Jul 16 2021 High pressure along the Carolina Coast will start to weaken over the weekend as a slow-moving cold front approaches from the north and stalls over the area early this week. Skies should be generally sunny through the morning with most of the high-resolution guidance indicating at least a few widely scattered showers and thunderstorms from mid afternoon into the early evening hours. Breezy southwest winds expected again tonight with warm muggy lows in the lower 70s in the far southwestern zones, ranging to the upper 70s and around 80 over the southern Outer Banks.
Tonight and Friday: High pressure is expected to build across the area tonight and then linger through the day Friday. In addition, the ridge passing directly overhead, will lead to light winds across much of the area. A fairly broad ridge will continue to build over western CONUS, gradually building over the western Central Plains as well. The only chance for precipitation then arrives in the a Canadian low, which may drag a cold front through the area sometime near the end of the week. for 06Z TAF Issuance High pressure will be centered across the region during the next 24 hours, resulting in relatively light winds and clear to partly cloudy skies. Dewpoints remain in the low to mid 60s over the Fox Valley and lakeshore areas of east- central WI this evening, where some of the heaviest rain fell yesterday.
The large scale upper pattern across the United States will be dominated by a strong anticyclone over the Intermountain West. Downstream troughing will consolidate around 75W during the early part of the period. There was considerable discrepancy among the medium range models on how deep/strong the trough will be by the end of the period.
351 AM CDT Fri Jul 16 2021 As of 0830Z, a midlevel trough axis was swinging through the Central US and based on VAD winds the axis extended from near Columbia, MO to Springfield, MO. As the midlevel trough axis continues east, the bulk of precipitation should come to an end in the next hour or two across Anderson and Coffey counties. Transitioning into the weekend, the stagnant midlevel ridge across the western US will amplify over the Rockies.
Meanwhile, subtle mid-upper level wave topping the ridge in eastern Montana early this morning. This wave will slide south-southeast along the eastern periphery of the upper ridge through today, into axis of increased instability near/west of the low level boundary.
The area will still be on the periphery of the building ridge over the western US. This will allow several more weak ripples in the flow to skirt around the ridge and across the area. Given the still dry nature of the lower atmosphere there will still be a good chance for gusty winds (30 to 40 mph) with these storms.
This will translate to a minor increase in both the coverage of high-level cloud cover and boundary layer dewpoints, which will result in warmer low temps in the lower-mid 70s. Although the warmer overnight lows should reduce the coverage of fog compared to last night, a few of our normally fog-prone valley locations may still experience a brief period of visibility reductions in light mist/haze right around sunrise. Ridging at the surface and aloft over the NW Atlantic Basin will gradually weaken over the last couple days of the week, while troughing nears this region from the NW.
243 AM CDT Fri Jul 16 2021 An area of high pressure was centered over northern Wisconsin early this morning. While the center of the high looks to drift slowly east through the overnight hours, the overall ridge axis looks to remain nearly stationary.
Overall, pleasant weather is on tap for Friday with highs in the lower 80s. A complex of storms will make its way across the High Plains during the day,leading to potential residual showers in the northwestern part of the CWA overnight.
This is due to troughing over the northeastern US with ridging building over the Rocky Mountains as viewed on GOES-East upper level water vapor imagery.
The low pressure area off the coast weakens its influence a little today as it lifts towards the northeast.
While the region will be northerly upper flow aloft, stronger upper ridging will suppress shower and thunderstorm development otherwise today. It will be a persistence forecast with highs in the lower to mid 90s and lows in the lower 70s.
129 AM EDT Fri Jul 16 2021 Deep high pressure will prevail through this weekend. Low temperatures in the lower to middle 70s most areas, to the upper 70s near 80 close to coast. Deep mid-level ridging will remain across the area through the weekend.
620 AM CDT Fri Jul 16 2021 An area of high pressure was centered over northern Wisconsin early this morning. While the center of the high looks to drift slowly east through the overnight hours, the overall ridge axis looks to remain nearly stationary.
Under the influence of high pressure, the short term forecast is fairly quiet. There will be a slight chance of showers or storms around the Victoria Crossroads region though, as a weak mid-level trough gets close to that area. A shower or storm can't be ruled out in the same area tomorrow, but the weak trough exiting should make chances even smaller than today.
429 AM CDT Fri Jul 16 2021 A slow moving surface front and upper level trof will be pushing slowly southeast into the mid Mississippi River Valley today, providing a focus for more shower and thunderstorm activity along and south of the surface boundary. Depending on the amount of solar heating and instability that can be generated this afternoon (with surface dew points from near 70 to the lower 70s), we could be looking at a few stronger storms to monitor, especially along and north of the Ohio River closer to the weak surface front.
High pressure was located over the Upper Midwest early this morning with mainly clear skies observed. With the core of the high overhead today, skies will remain mainly clear. The highest concentration of smoke looks to move over northwest Wisconsin today, especially over Ashland and the Bayfield Peninsula this morning. High pressure will then remain in control through the weekend keeping dry and hot conditions in place as temperatures trend 10 to 15 degrees above normal.
/22/ Today and Tonight: Early morning surface analysis had a >1020mb ridge nosing across our southern zones from the east. Water vapor imagery/RAP analysis showed this upper level trough over the central Plains but this trough will continue shifting east today and help lead to a greater coverage of convection this afternoon and then maintain convection across our northern zones tonight. Greenwood reached 95F yesterday but most of the CWA topped out in the lower 90s. Most sites will top out again in the lower 90s and morning lows Saturday will be back in the lower 70s at most locations.
Latest 16/00Z model and numerical guidance continues to show a building H500 ridge across the intermountain west throughout the day on Friday. Diurnal heating, in-conjunction with embedded perturbations along the developing ridge, showers and thunderstorms will develop along the NM/CO high terrain. Going into the day on Saturday, the main ridge over the central Rockies forms a closed anti-cyclonic feature over the Four Corners Region. In-conjunction with a deepening trough over the western Great Lakes, overall mean effective northerly and northwesterly flow will increase across the central and southern Plains.
High pressure will bring a drying and slight warming trend heading into the weekend.
429 AM CDT Fri Jul 16 2021 The long-advertised transition to more unsettled weather will begin today, as a weak positively-tilted upper trof approaches the Midsouth from the central plains. The weak midlevel trof axis will shift only slightly east on Saturday, with areas east of the MS River and south of I-40 most favored for shower and thunderstorm development.
Frontal zone remains draped from north central IL through northeast MO early this morning with not much steering flow (quite typical of summer) throughout the lower troposphere, as evidence by 00z DVN RAOB with 10 kts or less of wind through 700 mb and 25 kts or less through 400 mb. Tonight, high pressure ridge will begin to build /nudge/ into the area with clear to partly cloudy skies. Key messages: 1) Blocking pattern with little to no rain.
Majority of the convection will be over southeast NM and the higher terrain of West Texas but any residual outflow boundaries from yesterdays storms could help initiation as well. Overnight temps will range in the low 70s across the region aided by dewpoints in the low 60s supported by LLJ. The ridge out west is set to strengthen a bit tomorrow, supporting increasing mid lvl heights, bringing slightly warmer temps this weekend.
/issued 242 AM CDT Fri Jul 16 2021/ The mid/upper-level anticyclone centered over the Desert Southwest is forecast to expand eastward later today, resulting in an increase in subsidence aloft. Temperatures will be a bit hotter than the last few days, rising into the lower 90s area-wide. Sincavage The upper level high pressure ridge will continue to amplify Saturday across the southern and central Rockies, with subsidence and warm temperatures expected over the weekend.
403 AM CDT Fri Jul 16 2021 As of 0830Z, a midlevel trough axis was swinging through the Central US and based on VAD winds the axis extended from near Columbia, MO to Springfield, MO. As the midlevel trough axis continues east, the bulk of precipitation should come to an end in the next hour or two across Anderson and Coffey counties. Transitioning into the weekend, the stagnant midlevel ridge across the western US will amplify over the Rockies. Weak perturbations may round the ridge axis and dive southward across the MO and MS valley regions, with the first progged to progress into the mid- MS valley region Saturday afternoon.
712 AM EDT Fri Jul 16 2021 A cold front stretched from southern Ontario to southern Michigan will drift very slowly to the south today through the upcoming weekend as several weak waves of low pressure ride northeast along it.
/issued 429 AM CDT Fri Jul 16 2021/ The long-advertised transition to more unsettled weather will begin today, as a weak positively-tilted upper trof approaches the Midsouth from the central plains. The weak midlevel trof axis will shift only slightly east on Saturday, with areas east of the MS River and south of I-40 most favored for shower and thunderstorm development.
531 AM MDT Fri Jul 16 2021 A hot, but generally unsettled weather pattern should prevail over much of the region over the next several days as large scale upper level ridging remains in control w/ numerous disturbances expected to traverse the flow along the edge of the ridge.
A cold front will sweep across the area bringing rain/t-storms to northern sites near 14Z, KLIT near 17Z, southwestern sites near 18Z, and southeastern sites near 22Z. Longwave ridging centered over the southwestern conus will contract a bit later today and tonight. Convection remnants out ahead of the boundary should interact with daytime heating and this, along with the approach of a digging upper trough will allow for additional showers/storms to occur today and tonight. With abundant cloud cover and the slow track of the front across the state, afternoon temperatures in most areas will be cooler than average for mid- July.
This disturbance will continue rippling through the ridge of high pressure this morning, lifting into northeast Utah and northwest Colorado by afternoon hours. A deepening trough along the Pacific coast will push high pressure northward, lifting a plume of moisture back over the AZ/NM border and into the Four Corners. High temperatures will climb back above climo norms today and continue an upward trend into the weekend thanks to high pressure building overhead.
Some activity will linger into the evening, but will mostly diminish before midnight with overnight lows in the lower 70s. The Atlantic ridge, which has been the dominant feature over the Southeast for the past few days, will begin to lose its control tomorrow as a mid-level trough deepens over the Great Lakes region and extends southwest into the Lower MS Valley. The increasing presence of cyclonic flow will support scattered to numerous afternoon showers and thunderstorms across our north/northwest, especially along and north of I-20 just downstream of the trough. Less coverage is expected in the southeast where drier air will be situated closer to the ridge, but could see activity expand further east than expected due to outflow and mesoscale boundary interactions. Temperatures will range from the lower 80s northwest to low/mid 90s southeast.
A slow moving surface front and upper level trof will be pushing slowly southeast into the mid Mississippi River Valley today, providing a focus for more shower and thunderstorm activity along and south of the surface boundary. Depending on the amount of solar heating and instability that can be generated this afternoon (with surface dew points from near 70 to the lower 70s), we could be looking at a few stronger storms to monitor, especially along and north of the Ohio River closer to the weak surface front.
Temperatures will be a bit warmer today, and the same holds true for Saturday. Temperatures will be in the low to mid 90s as the warmest air remains to the west across the Dakotas.
734 AM EDT Fri Jul 16 2021 Water vapor imagery and RAP analysis show low amplitude ridging over the Rockies into s central Canada and low amplitude troffing over the Upper Mississippi Valley and Plains. Ridging looks to dominate this weekend as a high pressure block over the Desert Southwest slowly progs northward.
The afternoon activity is expected to decrease, but additional activity is expected to develop across NE OK during the late evening and especially as we go into the overnight hours thanks to the low level jet strengthening.
546 AM CDT Fri Jul 16 2021 A cold front slowly tracking southeast across the region today and tonight, will bring scattered showers and storms.
401 AM CDT Fri Jul 16 2021 A slow moving surface front and upper level trof will be pushing slowly southeast into the mid Mississippi River Valley today, providing a focus for more shower and thunderstorm activity along and south of the surface boundary. Depending on the amount of solar heating and instability that can be generated this afternoon (with surface dew points from near 70 to the lower 70s), we could be looking at a few stronger storms to monitor, especially along and north of the Ohio River closer to the weak surface front.
900 AM EDT Fri Jul 16 2021 The Bermuda High will ridge into the forecast area through the weekend providing a typical summertime pattern.
The area will still be on the periphery of the building ridge over the western US. This will allow several more weak ripples in the flow to skirt around the ridge and across the area. Given the still dry nature of the lower atmosphere there will still be a good chance for gusty winds (30 to 40 mph) with these storms. Reimer Kept the low chances of thunderstorms in the E on Saturday as energy moves through the area, and SREF showed greater than 1000 J/kg MLCAPE, and 30-40 kt Bulk Effective Shear over Fallon and Carter Counties.
As of 0830Z, a midlevel trough axis was swinging through the Central US and based on VAD winds the axis extended from near Columbia, MO to Springfield, MO. As the midlevel trough axis continues east, the bulk of precipitation should come to an end in the next hour or two across Anderson and Coffey counties. Transitioning into the weekend, the stagnant midlevel ridge across the western US will amplify over the Rockies. Weak perturbations may round the ridge axis and dive southward across the MO and MS valley regions, with the first progged to progress into the mid- MS valley region Saturday afternoon.
May be more a case of storms that develop in better instability (Black Hills low, trough over western ND) to the west that drift into west river portions of central SD. Upper level ridging will be well established across the western CONUS as its axis will be spread across the northern High Plains during the latter half of the upcoming weekend.
Otw, Upper trough axis will be positioned just to our west by this evening.
1047 AM EDT Fri Jul 16 2021 Low-level ridging stretches west across northern Florida, maintaining moderate easterly breezes across the coastal waters of the Florida Keys.
351 AM MDT Fri Jul 16 2021 A hot, but generally unsettled weather pattern should prevail over much of the region over the next several days as large scale upper level ridging remains in control w/ numerous disturbances expected to traverse the flow along the edge of the ridge.
The latest ensemble means supported an active weather pattern across the Desert Southwest as the upper high amplifies and becomes centered over the four corners region this weekend. Min RH values will be in the 25-35 percent range at the lower elevations, with higher values in the mountains.
Upper air analysis shows the upper ridge situated over the rockies this morning, with the upper high over the 4 corner region. As we progress through the day, expect the ridge to shift over the high plains area. Despite being in the ridge, convection is expected today as an impulse makes its way from Montana southeast through our area. Chances for isolated storms continue into Saturday as another weak wave moves through the high plains. With the upper ridge building over the region through the weekend, mostly dry conditions will be expected after Saturday through the forecast period.
Longwave ridging centered over the southwestern conus will contract a bit later today and tonight. Convection remnants out ahead of the boundary should interact with daytime heating and this, along with the approach of a digging upper trough will allow for additional showers/storms to occur today and tonight. With abundant cloud cover and the slow track of the front across the state, afternoon temperatures in most areas will be cooler than average for mid- July.
1015 AM EDT Fri Jul 16 2021 High pressure along the Carolina Coast will start to weaken over the weekend as a slow-moving cold front approaches from the north and stalls over the area early this week. Temperatures will be warm once again, and have readings reaching the low 90s inland, and upper 80s to around 90 along the coast. Breezy southwest winds expected again tonight with warm muggy lows in the lower 70s in the far southwestern zones, ranging to the upper 70s and around 80 over the southern Outer Banks.
732 AM EDT Fri Jul 16 2021 High pressure along the Carolina Coast will start to weaken over the weekend as a slow-moving cold front approaches from the north and stalls over the area early this week. Skies should be generally sunny through the morning with most of the high-resolution guidance indicating at least a few widely scattered showers and thunderstorms from mid afternoon into the early evening hours. Breezy southwest winds expected again tonight with warm muggy lows in the lower 70s in the far southwestern zones, ranging to the upper 70s and around 80 over the southern Outer Banks.
627 AM EDT Fri Jul 16 2021 The Bermuda High will ridge into the forecast area through the weekend providing a typical summertime pattern.