Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Ridging aloft, around 700mb, has really put a cap on the region, even with PWATs being near +2SD above normal so we really need the low-level convergence/frontal lifting to get widespread activity, and that just is not happening.
A low pressure system in Arizona will bring a chance of showers and thunderstorms to portions of Mohave County through Friday.
336 PM CDT Thu Nov 3 2016 The air mass over central Alabama continues to be very warm and dry, and temperatures this evening will be on the mild side due to weak warm air advection ahead of a cold front. The surface cold front was currently across northwest Tennessee. Rainfall is sparse along the front, with the higher coverage of rain back in Texas and Arkansas. The upper trof axis will shift quickly eastward into the Atlantic Ocean.
upper low, which early this morning was over southern Arizona. All the deterministic models have this system moving into the high plains over the weekend.
Highs will top out in the lower to middle 60s. High pressure will build southeast across the Great Lakes tonight providing fair weather with lows in the upper 30s and lower 40s.
All models agree that a broad ridge of high pressure will remain over the area through Friday. However, several days of warm weather have meant that the nocturnal inversion has been rather shallow making it more easier to mix down warmer temperatures aloft. For that reason see no reason why temperatures will not be the same as today or even a couple of degrees warmer.
On Friday a short wave trough and associated strong cold front will cross Ne Fl during the afternoon.
208 PM MDT Thu Nov 3 2016 Sharp upper level ridge axis will begin to shift eastward tonight and Friday as upper level low lifts slowly northeast into Arizona.
Despite an upper trough swinging through the western Great Lakes today, we'll have modest warm advection through the daytime hours. The strong subsidence under the upper ridge will help keep clouds, even at high levels, nil to a bare minimum.
1210 PM MDT Thu Nov 3 2016 Upper level low spinning along the AZ/Mexico border early this morning, with scattered convection across AZ/NM and a large area of tsra across nwrn TX. For today, upper low moves very little, with perhaps just a slight northward wobble toward srn AZ late in the day. Tonight, upper low slowly pushes northward into srn AZ, with moisture gradually spreading out of NM into CO late. Elsewhere, only a slow increase in cloud cover is expected, which will keep min temps slightly warmer than the past few nights across the region. Snow likely for the higher elevations Friday night through Main concern in the extended will be an upper low that will move N-NE though AZ on Fri.
322 PM CDT Thu Nov 3 2016 Cut off upper level low over northwest Mexico is expected to slowly work its way northeast over Arizona through Friday night and then it will open up as it moves northeast across Colorado over the weekend. Another cut off upper low may develop over north Texas and then it is expected to slide southwest through the rest of the forecast.
An upper low has cut off from the main flow and settled along the AZ/Mexico border this morning. This combined with a cold front at the surface and moisture overriding the boundary is helping produce widespread showers and thunderstorms. Surface ridging will build across the area and drier air will try to filter into at least our northeastern zones later today. This should end most precip there with the heavy rain threat shifting into the higher terrain as the front hangs up there.
Upper-level ridging remains in place across much of the western/central CONUS through Sat. However, afternoon water vapor satellite imagery and objective upper air analysis continued to show a closed upper low undercutting the ridge across northwest Mexico near the Arizona border.
119 PM EDT Thu Nov 3 2016 Cool high pressure will build into NY and PA overnight, clearing skies across our region.
/issued 735 AM EDT Thu Nov 3 2016/ Ridging aloft will get suppressed today and tonight as trough deepening over the Great Lakes pushes a front into the TN valley. Temperatures remain warm today but a little cooler max temperatures on Friday especially across the north. 41 Decent CAA kicking in behind short term front with a very dry airmass setting up shop for the weekend as the H5 ridge amplifies into the Great Lakes.
321 PM CDT Thu Nov 3 2016 Temps today have risen well above forecast into the lower to middle 70s. With a nearly identical airmass in place tomorrow, feel that highs will probably be above guidance thus have raised temps again into the lower 70s for all areas.
A large area of light to moderate showers, with an isolated thunderstorm or two, will slowly move east towards the area as a cold front and upper trough approach.
200 PM EDT Thu Nov 3 2016 High pressure over the region will weaken today ahead of an approaching cold front. The cold front will move through the area late tonight. Cooler weather will occur behind the front over the weekend. High pressure extended along the Gulf Coast states as a cold front over the Ohio River Valley slowly moves southward. Afternoon highs will be in the low to mid 80s. A cold front is forecast to move through the area late tonight. All models agreement that moisture will remain limited with h85 westerly flow ahead of the cold front.
Drier low-level air is gradually moving in from the north behind last evening's front, and with weak ridging aloft, we expect the forecast area to be mainly precip-free tonight. Instability appears to be pretty limited with surface temps only rising into the low 60s west and upper 60s east, and no strong moisture advection indicated.
Quick update to increase high temperatures for today a couple of degrees over the previous forecast given a slightly warmer airmass than yesterday, using observed highs from yesterday as a base from where to adjust from. Thursday will be another mild day with dry conditions as northwest flow aloft will be in place as an upper level ridge approaches from the west. In addition to the warmer temperatures, minimum relative humidities will dip into the low 20 percent range in the far southwest.
The cold front has moved south of the CWA as of 330 pm this afternoon.
304 PM CDT Thu Nov 3 2016 Dry and unseasonably warm conditions will persist through tomorrow as a broad mid-level ridge builds into the central U. With limited cool air advection behind yesterday's frontal passage, afternoon high temperatures were reaching into the low/mid 70s with abundant sunshine and light winds in place. Clear skies will support decent radiational cooling, which will cause low temperatures to drop into the low/mid 40s. Have not mentioned this potential in the forecast at this time due to the low confidence in how widespread that low-level moisture will be. Another dry and mild day is expected tomorrow with light southerly winds keeping afternoon high temperatures in the low/mid 70s.
232 PM CDT Thu Nov 3 2016 Cold front currently extending from De Queen Arkansas to Longview Texas serving as the trigger for early afternoon convection across mainly southwest Arkansas and east Texas. Cooler air behind the front to make its way across the region late tonight as high pressure builds across the region. Cold front to linger across the northern gulf coast on Friday maintaining clouds and a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms across Deep East Texas during the afternoon.
540 PM EDT Thu Nov 3 2016 Low pressure will move east through the Gulf of Maine tonight. High pressure will build in from the west Friday. High pressure will shift offshore Friday night.
105 PM CDT Thu Nov 3 2016 Tonight-Friday: Ridge axis drifts across forecast area tonight. Present indications are that a slight downslope component on western side of ridge should preclude widespread radiational fog.
254 PM CDT Thu Nov 3 2016 A cold front has slipped southeast of IL will push southeast across the Ohio river valley this evening while a piece of high pressure over the central Rockies drifts east over IL by Friday afternoon. Winds will stay fairly light tonight and Friday as high pressure settles into the area. Lows overnight in the low to mid 40s, coolest over the IL river valley. Highs Friday in the low to mid 60s, mildest over sw CWA. Moisture channel imagery and upper air showed northwest flow aloft to strengthen overnight, with upper ridge building over the western plains and trof deepening over the eastern US. High pressure and drier air will build into the IL region overnight from the midwest. High pressure and dry conditions will be in control over the weather then through the weekend.
250 PM EDT Thu Nov 3 2016 Water vapor imagery and RAP analysis show a ridge over the Rockies and a trof extending from Hudson Bay into the Great Lakes. Cold front associated with the wave extends from se Lake Superior to near KIWD. Trended sky condition a little more pessimistic today as low-level cyclonic flow, 850mb thermal trof and upslope flow off Lake Superior will likely lead to more stubborn stratocu. As for temps, expect highs ranging from the mid 40s across the higher terrain of the nw and n central to the mid 50s far s central.
The pattern will consist of a broad trough in the northeast Pacific/Gulf of Alaska and a ridge east of the Divide that will slowly shift farther east. The top of the shifting ridge axis will be located well to the north in northern Canada.
Clear skies will continue through tomorrow and with low level warm air advection expected throughout the day, used a mix down from 925mb to produce a temperature forecast a few degrees warmer than the previous forecast. The highly amplified pattern upper air pattern to continue as eastern Pacific/Pacific Northwest trough remains nearly stationary through the period.
It's upper level trough will pass through the Northland this evening. The passing trough will continue to spread showers into the Northland this afternoon into tonight, and the showers could linger continue through Thursday, but mainly south of Highway 2. While the upper trough will shift south Thursday, the cool and relatively humid flow will maintain the cloudy skies through Thursday, which will limit heating.
232 PM PDT Wed Jul 13 2016 Drier and warmer weather is expected on Thursday.
With the potential for rain/clouds throughout much of Thursday, will keep temperatures on the cooler side across all of central Nebraska. Expect temperatures to range in the low to mid-80s.
307 PM EDT WED JUL 13 2016 The return flow around high pressure anchored off the Atlantic coast will circulate warm and increasingly humid air into the region through Thursday. There is a better chance for afternoon thunderstorms on Thursday as a cold front begins to approach from the west.
Low clouds have spread into the lower James River Valley, so have updated cloud cover grids to reflect this. Current surface analysis places low over southeast Manitoba with ridge over the northern Rockies into the Pacific Northwest. unsettled pattern remains over the area with broad cyclonic flow aloft in the wake of the departing upper low.
Fairly strong and deep layer ridging will remain situated across the central/north-central peninsula through this period. Generally favorable boating conditions with the low- level ridge axis initially near the central peninsula gradually lifting slowly northward through the period allowing onshore flow to deepen, but the pressure gradient will still remain fairly weak.
This is courtesy of broad high pressure ridge that is oriented east-west along 35 degrees north.
A stagnant synoptic pattern will remain in place tonight, with deep- layer ridging situated over the tri-state region. PoPs will be fairly low throughout the night, with the highest PoPs (around 20%) in the northeastern part of the forecast area early in the night, and then over the water later in the night. Temperatures and dewpoints will be consistent with climatology, with lows in the mid 70s and dewpoints in the lower 70s.
148 PM MDT WED JUL 13 2016 Northwest surface winds at 5-10 kts are bringing in drier air with dewpoints in the lower 50s in the northwest while lower 60s remain in the southeast. Water vapor imagery shows a short wave trough pushing steadily east over Idaho which will likely be a player in enhancing lift later tonight.
Extreme instability has developed over much of southern IL this afternoon with sfc temps in the lower 90s and dew point temps running up in the mid 70s.
612 PM EDT WED JUL 13 2016 High pressure over the central and southern Appalachians will drift south and weaken. cold front will move southeast toward the area Thursday.
301 PM EDT WED JUL 13 2016 High pressure will move away to our southeast tonight.
Showers and thunderstorms with pre-frontal trough will be ongoing into early Thursday evening before tapering off west to east by the overnight.
High pressure over the desert SW and Nrn Old Mex will keep Norcal high and dry and seasonably warm/hot the next couple of days. Warming will continue on Thu (the warmest day of the week over most of the CWA) and then level off on Fri as the upper low off the BC coast moves across the Pac NW and flattens the ridging over Norcal. By Fri evening there should be a Delta Breeze kicking-in which will provide a cooling trend for the Delta influenced areas due to the influence of the upper low and trof. Models in good agreement in retrograding energy on the backside of the upper low and digging a trough along the west coast over the coming weekend. The cooler airmass and increased onshore flow will bring Norcal another stretch of cooler than normal temps.
Mid-level trough axis will be nearly bi-secting our forecast area by Thursday morning.
A weak ridge will traverse the region tonight providing dry weather and decreasing clouds.
245 PM EDT WED JUL 13 2016 Skies are partly to mostly sunny along the island chain with temperatures averaging in the lower 90s. Surface wise, a broad Western Atlantic ridge is anchored across the northern portion of the sunshine state and the Southeast United States.
518 PM EDT WED JUL 13 2016 A typical summer pattern will persist over the next few days with high pressure well offshore and a trough of low pressure inland. A weak trough will linger across eastern North Carolina over the weekend. Lee trough will help trigger storms in addition to a stalled boundary to the North.
The only good thing about the heat right now is that it's even warmer aloft. Temperatures will only dip into the lower to mid 70s for lows both tonight and Thursday night, while most highs Thursday top out around 90.
Over our area a weak mid level trough axis was noted over southeast Mississippi.
The best chance for shower and thunderstorm occurrence looks to be Thursday afternoon and evening as lift associated with a short wave trough, daytime heating, and the approach of a weak cold front all combine. While ridge site airports should not see any fog tonight, fog with MVFR to local IFR visibility is expected elsewhere late tonight. VFR conditions should prevail once again Thursday, with the threat for showers and thunderstorms increasing in the afternoon as a cold front approaches the area from the northwest.
The best chance for shower and thunderstorm occurrence looks to be Thursday afternoon and evening as lift associated with a short wave trough, daytime heating, and the approach of a weak cold front all combine. The highest likelihood of showers and storms will be during the afternoon and evening hours each day during peak heating. While ridge site airports should not see any fog tonight, fog with MVFR to local IFR visibility is expected elsewhere late tonight. VFR conditions should prevail once again Thursday, with the threat for showers and thunderstorms increasing in the afternoon as a cold front approaches the area from the northwest.
As high pressure settles south return flow will gradually set up from aloft down to the surface.
Dewpoints in the low to mid 70s and temps in the mid 80s to lower 90s was supporting these higher CAPES. Muggy lows overnight mostly in the lower 70s with some upper 60s nw of IL river.
and a ridge of high pressure in place at the surface. A few isolated to perhaps widely scattered favoring the high terrain of east Tennessee and southwest Virginia. long wave trough through the first half of the weekend.
Seasonably strong mid/upper flow is progged with deep layer shear of 40-55 kts and steep mid lvl lapse rates supporting severe thunderstorms across much of the area with the highest probabilities across southern KS during the afternoon/early evening on Thursday.
We're off to a warm and muggy start with temperatures already in the mid and upper 80s, which is a degree or two warmer than this time yesterday. 1200 UTC map analysis compared to 24 hours ago shows heights have risen and temperatures have warmed, particularly low-level temperatures, as an upper ridge has expanded over the area. We can't rule out a rogue shower or storm just about anywhere in Middle Tennessee, but the most favored location for this activity will be along and east of the Plateau where a weak semblance of a theta-e ridge is present.
The best chance for shower and thunderstorm occurrence looks to be Thursday afternoon and evening as lift associated with a short wave trough, daytime heating, and the approach of a weak cold front all combine. A rather zonal flow pattern is anticipated early in the period with a ridge centered over the Desert SW and Southern Plains Region and another centered near Bermuda. In between a trough will extend form the Hudson Bay region south into the Great Lakes to MS Valley regions.
536 PM EDT WED JUL 13 2016 The return flow around high pressure anchored off the Atlantic coast will circulate warm and increasingly humid air into the region through Thursday. There is a better chance for afternoon thunderstorms on Thursday as a cold front begins to approach from the west.
High pressure has all but pushed the storm track farther north and leaving only the Macks Inn area with a miniscule shower threat. As the air flow turns more southwesterly than westerly, warmer air shows up and thus warming and drying strengthens on Fri. The ridge overhead means light winds turning gusty in the afternoon as slightly higher momentum air mixes down to the surface. Sat has a slight cool-down due to the Fri night trough. This trend will continue through the remainder of the week with minimum humidity values in the low teens for much of the Snake Plain and Southern Highland areas. Central Mountain and Upper Highland locations should see minimum values in the upper teens to low 20 percents with the valley locations seeing lower values.
349 PM CDT WED JUL 13 2016 Some cooler air moving into North Dakota late this afternoon with temperatures only in the lower to mid 60s across northeast North Dakota. This cooler air will be moving into our region through tonight and remain into Thursday. Otherwise, the models show several short wave troughs dropping across the region from the northwest through Thursday night bringing off and on chances of showers and storms. The models also show surface Canadian high pressure dominating bringing below normal temperatures for both Wednesday and Thursday. In fact, with the cooler air moving into tonight, some places in the far northeast part of our region may just get to 70 degrees on Thursday afternoon.
The Wednesday morning weather map showed a cold front over the Plains.
The first of these comes later Thursday and into Thursday night with the approach of moderately strong mid-level flow associated with a mid-level trough.
SHORT TERM (Tonight through Thursday Night): A weak, inverted 500 mb trough has now moved well inland into Mexico, per latest water-vapor satellite imagery, after causing minimal impacts to the CWA.
Thursday looks to be a mostly dry and warmer day across the region.
339 PM EDT WED JUL 13 2016 No change in overall pattern as high pressure continues over the southeast. 500mb weak low pressure persists over the northern Gulf and may again push convection from the FL panhandle into southwest GA this afternoon and evening.
255 PM CDT WED JUL 13 2016 High pressure over the area today is keeping things hot and dry. The next chance for rain looks to be Thursday evening as a mid level trough moves north of the area and a weak frontal boundary approaches the Red River Valley.
The first is the possibility of convection redeveloping along a cold front currently positioned across southeastern to south central Nebraska, extending northeastward into southwestern Iowa. This will push the surface cold front further south with a return of thunderstorm chances in the afternoon for areas south of the KC metro.
633 PM EDT WED JUL 13 2016 A typical summer pattern will persist over the next few days with high pressure well offshore and a trough of low pressure inland. A weak trough will linger across eastern North Carolina over the weekend. Lee trough will help trigger storms in addition to a stalled boundary to the North.
Upper level ridge centered to the west will expand slightly eastward on Thursday.
301 PM CDT WED JUL 13 2016 Latest water vapor imagery shows an upper level low spinning across south central Canada, while somewhat weak upper level ridging was situated along the eastern seaboard. At the surface, high pressure extends across much of the southeastern CONUS, with the center of the high just to the southeast of the forecast area. A cold front trailing south of this low will move into the Mississippi Valley on Thursday.
A weak short wave trof will pass to the north of Alabama on Thursday and could bring slightly better chances of rain for areas north of I-20.
We will be entering a much more summer-like pattern of dry and hot weather, but we still have at least a couple more days of precipitation chances until the large summer ridge sets in.
157 PM CDT WED JUL 13 2016 The main story for this forecast package will continue to be the persistent heat that is expected to stick around the next couple days as an upper ridge holds strong over the region. At the surface, an area of low pressure remains centered over the TX/OK Panhandles extending south through SE NM and W TX today. Strong thermal ridge looks to remain over the area through tomorrow at the very least. MOS guidance has been way too cool with the high temperatures the last couple of days so decided to go with persistence and forecast highs above guidance for Thursday.
This will suppress the ridge a bit and help to push a weak front into the southern Texas Panhandle. MOS guidance came in 3-4 degrees cooler than the forecast currently has and feel this trend may be in error. Activity could be aided by weakness in upper ridge along with weak forcing.
Tonight's minimum temperatures will be similar, to a couple degrees warmer, than last night's.
500 PM EDT WED JUL 13 2016 WV imagery and RAP analysis indicated a mid/upper level trough from Hudson Bay into nw Ontario resulting in wsw flow through the nrn Great Lakes. At the surface, a cold front extended to wrn Lake Superior from low pres west of James Bay. However, downslope wrly flow should limit the pcpn progress beyond the higher terrain of the west half. Thursday, deeper wrap-around moisture with cyclonic low level flow behind the mid level trough, and another weak shrtwv will bring an increasing chance for light rain across the area. Otherwise, expect much cooler conditions with highs in the upper 60s and lower 70s. Upper trough moving in late this week across Great Lakes slowly retreats across eastern Canada this weekend.
417 PM EDT WED JUL 13 2016 A typical summer pattern will persist over the next few days with high pressure well offshore and a trough of low pressure inland. A weak trough will linger across eastern North Carolina over the weekend. Lee trough will help trigger storms in addition to a stalled boundary to the North.
(Issued 301 PM CDT WED JUL 13 2016) Latest water vapor imagery shows an upper level low spinning across south central Canada, while somewhat weak upper level ridging was situated along the eastern seaboard. At the surface, high pressure extends across much of the southeastern CONUS, with the center of the high just to the southeast of the forecast area. A cold front trailing south of this low will move into the Mississippi Valley on Thursday.