Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
A warm frontal boundary will move through the region this morning but warm air in the lower levels will cap lift and prevent shower/storm development associated with the boundary.
An upper level low will linger over western Washington today, bringing cooler temperatures and showers to the region. As the low exits to the east, drier and warmer conditions will resume and persist through the latter half of the work week. Another low pressure system will impact the region over the weekend, increasing chances of precipitation for northern areas of the CWA.
There are some upper level clouds that may be hindering the low cloud development. An upper level low currently centered near San Antonio will drift slowly to the northwest into our area today. The main effect will be slightly cooler temperatures, but overall, we can expect similar conditions for our region today. A few showers and thunderstorms developing on the east side of this low may affect areas southeast of a Brownwood to Sonora line during the evening hours, but generally dry weather is expected for most of the forecast area.
226 AM PDT Tue Jul 2 2019 Temperatures will remain near normal values for the start of July through the end of the week with conditions trending warmer and slightly above normal going into the weekend. another low pressure system remains over Washington with a trough of low pressure extending into Northern California. Other than the wind advisory, the pattern remains very quiet with models keeping a trough over the Pacific Northwest, resultant dry southwest to west flow and little day to day change in temperatures through the next several days.
High pressure extends over the lower MS, TN, and OH Valleys today holding this warm and humid air mass in place. Muggy conditions persist across the area with dewpoints in the lower to middle 70s. This put highs in the lower 90s, with heat indices near 100. Better chances for rain arrive on Independence Day as some upper troughing moves in. More clouds should keep temperatures a little cooler for Wednesday, with similar temperatures on Independence Day. Ensembles indicate upper ridging will continue to gradually weaken and shift towards the southern Plains during this period, with increasing northwesterly upper flow locally. Ensembles continue to suggest daily chances for convection through the weekend, as periodic disturbances ripple along the edge of the upper ridge.
631 AM CDT Tue Jul 2 2019 At 1 AM, the shower and thunderstorm activity that popped up yesterday evening along a stationary boundary draped from the High Plains of Colorado to Wisconsin was on the decline. Continued weakening of the upper level ridge over the southern tier of the U.
All quiet across the Tennessee Valley region as high pressure remains the dominant weather feature in the area.
658 AM CDT Tue Jul 2 2019 A ridge over the area has become disorganized overhead with transient and rather chaotic movement progged today.
Cooler temperatures are spreading through North-central Montana as a cold front continues to move from north to south.
Looking at satellite images the center of the upper low has migrated into southwestern Washington state, The upper low will shift east today, but the upper trough will deepen behind it with stable northerly to northwesterly flow remaining behind through Tuesday night. By Wednesday afternoon a cooler air mass moves down over the forecast area, bringing instability and a slight chance of the thunderstorms to the southern Cascades and across to portions of the east side as an upper level trough moves though the area.
The highest precipitation coverage will likely remain just south of Central Texas, but as outflow boundaries develop in an unstable and moist environment, wouldn't be surprised to see additional updrafts develop within our area through sunset.
The highly reflected ridge aloft will have a strong influence on temperatures and will serve to dampen some but not all convective activity.
Warm and sticky out there again this morning with dew points hanging in the low 70s. Today should be relatively similar to what we have seen the last couple of days as an upper level ridge drives temperatures into the low to middle 90s.
512 AM EDT Tue Jul 2 2019 Under mostly clear to partly cloudy skies and northwest winds of 5 to 10 mph, temperatures are hovering in the lower 80s along the Florida Keys. Elsewhere, several boundaries are migrating southeastward on the coastal waters northwest of the Lower and Middle keys. Little change in forecast reasoning as a deep layered ridge over the eastern Gulf of Mexico will slowly lift northward and reorient east-west, and extend across the Florida Peninsula. Above normal temperatures can be expected with daytime highs in the lower 90s and overnight lows generally in the lower 80s.
The 12z KEY sounding showed light NW wind flow from the surface up to nearly 500 mb, thanks to a weak high pressure center over the Eastern Gulf and the thermal pressure trough axis over the Florida Peninsula. The K- index was 26, which is the lowest it has been since the morning of June 26. This will try to steer afternoon convection from its breeding ground over the Everglades southward across Florida Bay and toward the Upper/Middle Keys during the early evening, possibly even the Lower Keys. A weak high pressure center over the eastern Gulf and summertime heating over the Florida Peninsula will lead to mainly northwest winds on the Keys coastal waters through Wednesday.
355 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2019 A long wave ridge is still parked over much of eastern CONUS as the typical Summer pattern continues across the south. Moisture can be seen on water vapor imagery advecting into the region from the gulf along the edge of the ridge. We remain muggy with dew points in the low to mid 70s. We'll see much of the same at least through the end of the weekend with the ridge remaining over the region with highs in the low 90s and lows in the low to mid 70s.
Fairly uniform conditions are in place across central Illinois late this morning with temps already in the mid 80s and dew points in the low to mid 70s. Aside from a few hit-or-miss storms, it will be another hot/humid day with afternoon highs in the lower 90s. Lows tonight will drop into the lower 70s. Very warm and humid conditions will continue through the end of the week as the Midwest/Ohio River Valley remain under the influence of an upper ridge.
Tomorrow and the 4th of July appear to be a hair cooler than today with even more scattered shower and t'storm coverage.
Still expecting for temps to near the low to mid 90s across much of the area with Heat Index Values reaching the triple digits. A shower could help our temps stay on the cooler side, but not everyone will see this temporary relief.
Low temps will run in the lower 80s along coastal communities and in the mid to upper 70s elsewhere.
212 PM EDT Tue Jul 2 2019 A large upper level ridge will keep the region warm and humid for the rest of the week. HRRR model not even close showing dew points in the lower 60s. Dewpoints remain mainly in the mid to upper 60s in most areas, with dewpoints up into the lower 70s in the Lower Susq. Combined with the elevated dewpoints, this will produce heat indices in the lower to mid 90s for the central mountains and Susq Valley through the July 4th holiday. By the weekend, a weak cold front drops southward across the region. Tstms likely on Sat, then changes drop each day and become more confined to the south as drier and slightly cooler air moves.
Upper low continues to sit across the Pacific Northwest, with nearly zonal flow persists across the northern Great Plains. This time, the best instability will be across the southern two-thirds of the CWA, where the highest likelihood of severe weather will be.
A nearly stationary and almost east/west-oriented cold front is analyzed across northwest SoDak/southwest NoDak (almost into Corson County), maybe moving very slowly to the south and east toward this CWA.
An upper ridge just to the west of Alabama will continue to suppress activity and will keep a dry forecast for the overnight period. Lows in the lower to middle 70s. Persistent ridging is in place across the Southeastern CONUS leading to slightly warmer than normal temperatures and isolated to scattered rain chances through the rest of this week.
345 PM EDT Tue Jul 2 2019 Warmer and more humid as the week progresses.
1110 AM CDT Tue Jul 2 2019 Cold frontal boundary of interest is situated either just inside the far nw corner of Corson County now, or will be within the next couple of hours. The low level shear (TOR potential) does not appear to materialize until later in the evening at or after 02Z, and appears to be confined mainly to Corson County. A cold front will approach the area today, becoming situated from southern Wyoming to southeastern North Dakota by this evening. High temperatures today will be in the mid to upper 80s, with lows tonight in the lower to mid 60s. A persistent west coast trough will result in a weak southwesterly flow aloft over the Northern Pains.
Favorable upper jet dynamics on eastern periphery of upper low along with mid level trough axis has resulted in a focused zone of heavier rains, however this overlap of conditions is also shown to focus more eastward while weakening during the afternoon.
The cold front drops southward toward the Wind River basin and CPR tonight, stalling along that line.
Drier air is already working into eastern UT and extreme western CO ahead of a trough along the Pacific NW coast. This trough will move inland with a band of stronger winds ahead of it spreading over the Great Basin and portions of western CO Wed. The upper trough will continue pushing east into the western Great Basin with the gradient tightening between the trough and a ridge centered over New Mexico and Texas.
1107 AM MDT Tue Jul 2 2019 Upper low continues to sit across the Pacific Northwest, with nearly zonal flow persists across the northern Great Plains. This time, the best instability will be across the southern two-thirds of the CWA, where the highest likelihood of severe weather will be.
Even though the original boundary washes out, the models seem to want to focus convection again Wednesday night along and just north of I80, where the highest Pops will be placed. This is also likely the nose of the developing low level jet, although to be honest, confidence is somewhat low since other models may try to focus the low level jet just a little farther south.
Ridge shows some signs of flattening by tomorrow, but still dominates the region.
357 PM EDT Tue Jul 2 2019 A large upper level ridge will keep the region warm and humid for the rest of the week. HRRR model not even close showing dew points in the lower 60s.
The remnants of a cold front lie northwest primarily near and along the mountains-plains interface, with increasing instability and moisture allowing for the thunderstorm development along and south of the front. The closed upper level low presently over the PacNW will slowly drift into western Montana later tonight into Wednesday. By Wednesday afternoon the westward-tilted upper level low moves into western Montana, producing a period of steady rainfall across the Northern Rockies, the Rocky Mountain Front, and adjacent plains.
A low level ridge over Mississippi was producing northwest flow across Alabama. Afternoon convection should stay mainly east of I-65 due to presence of ridge over Mississippi. Showers have been struggling to persist for more than a few radar scans due to ridging aloft and weak mid level lapse rates, so thunderstorms may stay limited.
SW flow in the lower to mid levels has motion to NE and most aiming for LA today. Overnight, a repeat most or less with fair skies clouding up a bit by daybreak with even slightly warmer temps here too.
Otherwise, cooler conditions today, with breezy northwest winds are expected.
113 PM PDT Tue Jul 2 2019 Temperatures will remain near normal values for the start of July through the end of the week with conditions trending warmer and slightly above normal going into the weekend. A westerly flow continues over central California as the region remains between a low pressure system over Washington and Oregon and higher pressure to our south.
The main low pressure system is forecast to pass through north- central Idaho and western Montana tonight and during Wednesday, providing high chances for rain and cooler daytime temperatures.
In addition, the absence of a mid-level ridge and additional cloud cover will keep temperatures near seasonal averages. By the weekend, remnant MCS(s) and/or boundaries will increase the chance of showers and thunderstorms, especially across northern Oklahoma (perhaps with a slightly cooler temperatures).
225 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2019 There is a broad upper ridge over most of the country with a weakening in the ridge over Texas, Oklahoma, and eastern New Mexico. This weakening will allow for increased chances of showers and thunderstorms across the higher terrain and surrounding plains today. The upper ridge shifts slightly east on Wednesday with temperatures heating up a little across the Upper Trans Pecos and thunderstorm chances decreasing a little.
High pressure continues to suppress any diurnal convection. Going into Wednesday, the mid-level ridge will begin to erode a little bit as a trough inches eastward and moisture increases over the area. Tomorrow's convection will be a little more widespread and therefore temperatures will be slightly lower than today with highs in the lower 90s.
SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday night): Satellite and radar images indicate convection continues to develop across portions of Kenedy county this afternoon as well as offshore the lower Texas coast. The 500mb ridge across northwest Mexico and the 500mb ridge across the eastern Gulf of Mexico will continue to provide a 500mb trough/shear axis across southwest Texas tonight through Wednesday night.
Cold frontal boundary of interest is situated either just inside the far nw corner of Corson County now, or will be within the next couple of hours. The low level shear (TOR potential) does not appear to materialize until later in the evening at or after 02Z, and appears to be confined mainly to Corson County. A cold front will approach the area today, becoming situated from southern Wyoming to southeastern North Dakota by this evening. High temperatures today will be in the mid to upper 80s, with lows tonight in the lower to mid 60s. A persistent west coast trough will result in a weak southwesterly flow aloft over the Northern Pains.
Upper ridges centered over the eastern Gulf of Mexico and along the Arizona-New Mexico border. Weak upper low near Wichita Falls Texas. Upper ridging will drift slowly westward through the end of the week.
For now, have capped pops in the low-end chance category, under the assumption that pops can be increased once trends become better established this evening.
As mentioned in the previous discussion, a weak upper trough will drop into the area tomorrow. The next several days will be dominated by a weak thermal trough pattern.
Weak high pressure currently over the area will be depressed south/east through the period as the boundary to our northwest sags southeastward.
Overnight lows are expected to reach the lower 70s.
Also cloudier and cooler than forecast. TFJ A cold front is currently moving south across Northeast Montana early this morning. High pressure will build into Saskatchewan today which will bring dry and cooler weather for most of today. The cold front will become stationary near the MT/WY border today and will become the focus point for showers and thunderstorms to develop this afternoon and evening.
A ridge over the area has become disorganized overhead with transient and rather chaotic movement progged today.
High pressure over the eastern U. and weak low pressure in the plains will bring light east to southeast flow to start the evening. Mid level ridging pushes in later in the evening and overnight so there may be lull in the activity during that time.
Maintaining low thunder chances coinciding with the deeper moisture near and east of the upper trough axis.
Analysis charts show a weak trough over northern Arkansas which is currently supporting thunderstorm development over western Arkansas and eastern Oklahoma. As the trough moves downstream and into our CWA, diurnal thunderstorms are expected to develop. Temperatures are in the low to mid 70s, with a few spots along the river still sitting at a balmy 77 degrees. Temperatures will remain near normal with highs in the low 90s with mid to upper 70 dewpoints.
At the surface, a cold front extended from southwestern North Dakota, northeast to central, and into northeastern North Dakota. Some storms have formed over the higher terrain in Montana and northern Wyoming and this activity will continue to slowly propagate towards the western part of the state.
An upper level low will linger over western Washington today, bringing cooler temperatures and showers to the region. As the low exits to the east, drier and warmer conditions will resume and persist through the latter half of the work week. Another low pressure system will impact the region over the weekend, increasing chances of precipitation for northern areas of western Washington.
High temperatures will probably be just a shade cooler than those expected today, generally in the mid to upper 80s.
A portion of a coastal upper level trough is expected to move across the Idaho panhandle. This action will bring a weak cold front through central and eastern Idaho, which should trigger some showers and thunderstorms in greater coverage than what has been lately occurring.
Dominating high pressure sits of the Gulf of Mexico and will continue to slowly slide eastward through the week before the pattern shifts as the ridge axis from the Bermuda high settles over the region. The high will act to suppress coverage a tad, though the convection will eventually form with a focus along boundaries. For the forecast on these two dates, preferred the warmer envelope of guidance members.
An upper level low continues to slowly move north into the Hill Country. No significant changes are expected over the period, as the upper level low and associated trough remain over our western zones.
Broadbrushed pops as there could be a pop up shower east of the low anyway in the FA. Highs should peak in the lower 90s.
1243 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2019 At 1 AM, the shower and thunderstorm activity that popped up yesterday evening along a stationary boundary draped from the High Plains of Colorado to Wisconsin was on the decline. Continued weakening of the upper level ridge over the southern tier of the U.
A strong storm can't be ruled out, and isolated storms still possible in all but the far southwest forecast area closer to the center of the ridge.
A strong U/L ridge anchored over the Florida peninsula will create large scale subsidence over the forecast area on Wednesday. with near 90 to the lower 90s at the immediate coast.
These features, combined with an unstable atmosphere and adequate low level moisture, should continue to result in further development of showers and tstms across our fcst area as well as over the higher terrain of ern NM through the evening hours before diminishing after midnight tonight.
Cold front is holding fairly stationary from south of Baker to Sheridan and banked up against the Beartooth mountains this afternoon. The threat of strong storms looks minimal, though with the cooler air in the area can't rule out an isolated marginal hail producing storm. The Fourth of July looks more like the end of May with temperatures in the lower 70s and good chances for precipitation through the day, and especially during the evening fireworks period.
Temperatures are still climbing into the lower 80s in most location, despite minimal mixing.
/issued 355 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2019/ A long wave ridge is still parked over much of eastern CONUS as the typical Summer pattern continues across the south. Moisture can be seen on water vapor imagery advecting into the region from the gulf along the edge of the ridge. We remain muggy with dew points in the low to mid 70s. We'll see much of the same at least through the end of the weekend with the ridge remaining over the region with highs in the low 90s and lows in the low to mid 70s.
On Wednesday, upper ridge builds while drier air spreads into the region from the southwest. As a result, expected a significant downturn in thunderstorm chances, with only some weak and isolated storms over mainly the higher terrain and Palmer Divide late in the afternoon.
Water Vapor showing a SW flow with a closed low over the Pacific NW.
/EC/ Prior discussion below: Tonight and tomorrow: Going into Wednesday, the mid- level ridge will begin to erode a little bit as a trough inches eastward and moisture increases over the area. Tomorrow's convection will be a little more widespread and therefore temperatures will be slightly lower than today with highs in the lower 90s.
1023 PM EDT Tue Jul 2 2019 Mean layer ridging centered over the Yucatan Peninsula dominates the sensible weather across the Florida Keys this evening. Northerly winds at the lowest levels give way to northwesterly winds aloft, corroborating the CIMSS analyses. This highlights the stable atmosphere and the ridge's dominance. Similar to late last night and this morning, a westward-moving South Florida land breeze may become the focus for isolated shower and thunderstorm development late tonight, despite the low level inhibition near 900 mb and the meager moisture (see 00Z KKEY). Weak high pressure will remain centered over the eastern Gulf of Mexico overnight and Wednesday.
The upper low is centered over Portland with a west to northwest stable flow. The upper low is expected to move south and weaken at the same time by Wednesday with weak upper troughing over our area. After Wednesday, general troughiness will remain over the area with a strong ridge centered over the southern Plains states and a rex block over the gulf of Alaska.
Warmer and drier conditions are expected during the latter part of the week.
Going into Wednesday, the mid- level ridge will begin to erode a little bit as a trough inches eastward and moisture increases over the area. Tomorrow's convection will be a little more widespread and therefore temperatures will be slightly lower than today with highs in the lower 90s.
1003 PM EDT Tue Jul 2 2019 A large upper level ridge will keep the region warm and humid for the rest of the week.
An approaching low pressure system will bring a few thunderstorms to northeast Nevada on Wednesday along with gusty winds to the southern part of the state. There will be an increased chance for thunderstorms across northeast Nevada on the 4th of July as a cold front slowly sweeps through the state.
Upper low in western Washington will weaken as it moves east Wednesday, with daytime temperatures continuing cooler than normal through July 4. Satellite imagery this evening shows clouds in southeast Oregon and southwest Idaho moving northeast, associated with a weak short wave trough. Light showers in the higher terrain will dissipate after sunset.
804 PM EDT Tue Jul 2 2019 A large upper level ridge will keep the region warm and humid for the rest of the week.
This, in combination with an 850-700 mb front across far northern Montana and a weak 850 mb area of low pressure cutting northeast through the area will trigger scattered light to moderate rain with perhaps an isolated thunderstorm. The best chance for an afternoon thunderstorm and the heaviest rain will be along the low pressure track, which looks to be somewhere across the Yellowstone River Valley. Water Vapor showing a SW flow with a closed low over the Pacific NW.
A continued weakening of the sub-tropical ridge over the region will continue on Wednesday, as a weakly sheared upper wave moves into the lower MS Valley.