Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
528 PM MDT Sat May 20 2017 Deep closed low over the Rockies continues to slowly shift NE with backside impulses expected to affect the region the next couple days. Main forcing and associated FGEN from the upper low will exit the FA late this afternoon and evening with rain ending over scentral SD. Upper low will push east by mid week with deep layer ridging expected. This will bring much warmer weather and dry conds to the region for a couple days. Moisture looks to be limited with this next round of troughing given closed GOMEX and PAC origin flow.
929 PM EDT Sat May 20 2017 A cold front will continue to drift south across North Carolina tonight before lifting north as a warm front late Sunday. A cold front will move through the area from the west Monday.
/issued 347 PM CDT Sat May 20 2017/ (Tonight and Sunday) Moist air overrunning the cold front will likely allow the development of isolated to scattered showers south of Interstate 20 tonight and Sunday. Temperatures will stay cooler Sunday.
Proton Previous Discussion: Upper trough that has brought a cool airmass to the Northern Plains has closed off near the Central Plains this afternoon and will slowly drift northeast to the northern Mississippi valley Sunday, then to near Lake Superior Monday.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 69 77 63 80 / 80 90 70 20 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 68 77 60 77 / 80 90 70 20 Oak Ridge, TN 69 76 61 79 / 80 90 70 20 Tri Cities Airport, TN 65 74 60 76 / 60 80 70 30.
Latest HRRR and 00Z WRF indicate potential for any additional showers and thunderstorms may decrease in coverage as the cold front moves through the area overnight. Although, can't rule out new development along the cold front that is currently pushing through Southern Missouri and Northern Arkansas. The cold front will push through the CWA tonight into Sunday. Cooler and drier air will begin to filter into the Mid-South behind the front. High pressure will settle over the Mid-South Sunday Night into Monday providing pleasant conditions.
If storms are able to develop some hail could certainly be possible with the very low freezing levels and cold temperatures aloft.
729 PM EDT Sat May 20 2017 High pressure moves east tonight and Sunday. Clouds continue to sink to the south as high pressure builds in. The only exceptions will be in and around the NYC metro area where lows will only fall into the lower 50s and across the Long Island pine barrens where upper 30s will be possible. High pressure slowly moves offshore as a frontal boundary starts to approach the region. A warm front approaches, with the cold front lagging back into PA by early Monday morning. An upper trough over the central U. The first of these systems will impact the area during the day on Monday, as a low moving through the Great Lakes sends a cold front through the area.
758 PM EDT Sat May 20 2017 Aviation Low pressure over the Midwest will move northeast tonight. This rain is along and ahead of a warm front. Once the occluded front moves through we'll dry out as high pressure builds in from the west. The next chance of rain looks to be Monday night as another cold front moves across the state.
An upper trough will approach the Panhandles by late Sunday which should allow for convection to develop/move southeast into the northwest portions of the forecast area by 00Z Monday. As the upper trough tracks east, convection will spread south and east across the remainder of the Panhandles Sunday night and Monday into Monday night. Convection may taper off during the day Monday as the cold front continues to push further south away from the Panhandles and the upper trough moves east away from the forecast area. Northwest flow aloft, however, should allow for convection off the higher terrain and mountains of southern Colorado and northern New Mexico to propagate southeast into the northwest Panhandles by late Monday.
948 PM EDT Sat May 20 2017 Low pressure near KC will track slowly north lifting a warm front across the forecast area tonight. The low will move across the Western Lakes Sunday forcing a cold front across the forecast area. Warm front across southern Ohio to push north across the local area late tonight/early Sunday morning. Showers/thunderstorms should fill in quickly after about 8 am with a prefrontal trough. By 6 am Sunday the cold front will only be reaching the IL/IN border. High pressure builds in Monday night ushering in drier and much more seasonal conditions.
Arc of low stratus and light rain continues to wrap around the low pressure system lifting across far southern MN. Latest models do take upper low more north and over the Red River valley Sunday morning. Upper low moves remains over nrn MN Sunday night. Then a secondary short wave will drop south thru western half of ND and Monday helping to keep the upper low over nrn MN.
1130 PM EDT Sat May 20 2017 High pressure well to the north of the state will slide to the south and east tonight and be centered over the eastern seaboard on Sunday morning. Low pressure will move from the plains states into the upper Great Lakes Sunday and Monday. A cold front will push through the state later Monday. The weather will remain unsettled through the week as a large upper level trough advancing slowly from the midwest. Subsidence inversion persists this evening with low broken to overcast now being overrun by increasing mid to high cloudiness from the west as upper ridge tracks eastward. A cold front should cross central Pennsylvania Sunday night into early Monday, accompanied by scattered showers and possibly some thunder.
510 PM MDT Sat May 20 2017 The early afternoon GOES water vapor loop showed the potent upper low that brought the heavy rain and snow to the CWA the past few days centered over central NE.
Temperatures a few degrees cooler than forecast across the northern third of the forecast area due to the rain cooled and stable airmass lingering over this region.
1034 PM MDT Sat May 20 2017 Northwesterly flow has returned to the western slope this afternoon as low pressure that affected the region earlier this week continues to head eastward in the high plains. This trough will zip eastward across the UT/CO border on Sunday resulting in a better chance for more widespread convection during the day. While the higher terrain should see showers and perhaps a rumble or thunder first, some of these showers will likely move off higher elevations and affect some valleys as well. Guidance is indicating yet another weak trough sliding down from the northwest by Monday afternoon, however nearly all guidance keeps any impact from this system to our east.
902 PM EDT Sat May 20 2017 High pressure well to the north of the state will slide to the south and east tonight and be centered over the eastern seaboard on Sunday morning. Low pressure will move from the plains states into the upper Great Lakes Sunday and Monday. A cold front will push through the state later Monday. The weather will remain unsettled through the week as a large upper level trough advancing slowly from the midwest. Subsidence inversion persists this evening with low broken to overcast now being overrun by increasing mid to high cloudiness from the west as upper ridge tracks eastward. A cold front should cross central Pennsylvania Sunday night into early Monday, accompanied by scattered showers and possibly some thunder.
1020 PM EDT Sat May 20 2017 High pressure remains in control through Sunday. The only exceptions will be in and around the NYC metro area where lows will only fall into the lower 50s and across the Long Island pine barrens where upper 30s will be possible. High pressure slowly moves offshore as a frontal boundary starts to approach the region. A warm front approaches, with the cold front lagging back into PA by early Monday morning. An upper trough over the central U. The first of these systems will impact the area during the day on Monday, as a low moving through the Great Lakes sends a cold front through the area.
737 PM EDT Sat May 20 2017 High pressure will slowly retreat off the east coast through Sunday, maintaining rain-free weather, for most of the area.
533 PM MDT Sat May 20 2017 Northwesterly flow has returned to the western slope this afternoon as low pressure that affected the region earlier this week continues to head eastward in the high plains. This trough will zip eastward across the UT/CO border on Sunday resulting in a better chance for more widespread convection during the day. While the higher terrain should see showers and perhaps a rumble or thunder first, some of these showers will likely move off higher elevations and affect some valleys as well. Guidance is indicating yet another weak trough sliding down from the northwest by Monday afternoon, however nearly all guidance keeps any impact from this system to our east.
With winds dropping off as well, temperatures will drop into the 40s across a majority of the region, with only parts of far southeast Oklahoma and the Arkansas River Valley being slightly warmer. A cold front in association with the upper low lifting northeast over the Plains will continue to sweep east across western Arkansas and southeast Oklahoma this afternoon and into the evening.
1035 PM EDT Sat May 20 2017 Update Low pressure over the Midwest will move northeast tonight. Main threat will be isolated downbursts in small bowing line segments and even a remote chance for a weak brief tornado as storm relative helicity values will be high in backed flow north of sfc warm front. This rain is along and ahead of a warm front. Once the occluded front moves through we'll dry out as high pressure builds in from the west. The next chance of rain looks to be Monday night as another cold front moves across the state.
945 PM EDT Sat May 20 2017 Rain chances will increase Sunday with the approach of a cold front. Mid-level ridging over the forecast are will provide stable conditions overnight. Cloud coverage will increase as the ridge continues to shift east and moisture advection increases as flow aloft becomes southwesterly. Sufficient warming aloft and increasing cloud cover will support warmer than average low temperatures. Rain and thunder chances will increase rapidly into Sunday as the deepening upper low swings a cold front across the region by Monday morning.
956 PM EDT Sat May 20 2017 Shower and thunderstorm chances will increase by Sunday afternoon as moisture increases ahead of an approaching cold front. Conditions will remain unsettled through the middle of the week as another cold front affects the area. A look at the mesoanalysis of precipitable water reveals a min in values extending along the ridge axis from offshore northwestward through SC into western NC with much higher values over 1. Overnight lows tonight likely to be slightly warmer than last night given debris clouds and expected stratus redevelopment earlier tonight. Upper ridge to shift to our east as upper energy moves east into our region. Weak to moderate instability and shear progged, but main threat may be locally heavy rainfall with the storms due to the high PW values.
1119 PM CDT Sat May 20 2017 Quiet weather expected to continue tonight-Sunday, as low-level high pressure moves across the Heartland.
1026 PM CDT Sat May 20 2017 Upper low moving into the forecast area will continue to generate a few showers late this afternoon into early this evening along/north of I80, but they do end a couple of hours past midnight in our extreme northeastern counties. Breezy northwest winds on Sunday, but a little warmer back into the 60s, with warmest readings in the upper 60s in our southwest forecast areas.
and potential for SHRA and a few TSRA remains as a cold front to the west of the CWA moves closer.
645 PM CDT Sat May 20 2017 Warm front has pushed northward across most of the forecast area, and was just starting to come into the areas from Galesburg to Lacon at 2 pm. Main issue for this part of the forecast will be with convective redevelopment ahead of the cold front, which is currently back in western Missouri.
Latest models do take upper low more north and over the Red River valley Sunday morning. Upper low moves remains over nrn MN Sunday night. Then a secondary short wave will drop south thru western half of ND and Monday helping to keep the upper low over nrn MN.
941 PM CDT Sat May 20 2017 Cold front now moving through western Missouri will continue to progress eastward tonight. Cooler and drier air will filter into the area behind the front tonight. Carney The global models are in relatively good agreement that the upper low that will be along the U.
Although, can't rule out new development along the cold front that is currently pushing through Southern Missouri and Northern Arkansas. The cold front will push through the CWA tonight into Sunday. Cooler and drier air will begin to filter into the Mid-South behind the front. High pressure will settle over the Mid-South Sunday Night into Monday providing pleasant conditions.
919 PM CDT Sat May 20 2017 Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms have developed in advance of a cold front across the Illinois River Valley this evening. Warm front has pushed northward across most of the forecast area, and was just starting to come into the areas from Galesburg to Lacon at 2 pm. Main issue for this part of the forecast will be with convective redevelopment ahead of the cold front, which is currently back in western Missouri.
Have updated forecast to reflect the higher probability of showers/storms before midnight over s-central ID zones and lower chances over southeast Oregon zones where shower activity is already decreasing. Showers pushing through SW Idaho and SE Oregon right now and are confined mostly to the higher elevations. At 2 PM MDT convective clouds were forming over higher terrain ahead of a short wave trough coming south from the Idaho panhandle. On Sunday the short wave trough will be southeast of our CWA and skies will be sunny again. Northerly flow aloft behind the trough will slow the warming trend Sunday but Monday will be 5 to 10 degrees warmer as the main upper ridge comes in from the north Pacific.
Above normal temperatures this weekend as high pressure builds along the West Coast.
1223 AM EDT Sun May 21 2017 High pressure in Canada will slowly build into the area through Sunday and move east Monday. Already in the low to mid 30s in the colder sheltered valley locations. Clr skies are the rule acrs the entire state today as high pressure builds out of Canada. Thus, expect that winds wl stay a tad stronger than expected tonight except for the lowest vlys where atmosphere wl decouple. On Sunday night, a 1026mb high and associated upper ridge will be in control with very dry air at lower levels.
1224 AM EDT Sun May 21 2017 High pressure will continue to weaken across the area tonight.
1005 PM EDT Sat May 20 2017 High pressure well to the north of the state will slide to the south and east tonight and be centered over the eastern seaboard on Sunday morning. Low pressure will move from the plains states into the upper Great Lakes Sunday and Monday. A cold front will push through the state later Monday. The weather will remain unsettled through the week as a large upper level trough advancing slowly from the midwest. Subsidence inversion persists this evening with low broken to overcast now being overrun by increasing mid to high cloudiness from the west as upper ridge tracks eastward. A cold front should cross central Pennsylvania Sunday night into early Monday, accompanied by scattered showers and possibly some thunder.
619 PM CDT Sat May 20 2017 Upper low moving into the forecast area will continue to generate a few showers late this afternoon into early this evening along/north of I80, but they do end a couple of hours past midnight in our extreme northeastern counties. Breezy northwest winds on Sunday, but a little warmer back into the 60s, with warmest readings in the upper 60s in our southwest forecast areas.
A cold front crosses from the west Sunday night. High pressure crosses Monday night, then low pressure rest of work week. A rather active evening of convection roughly along a theta-e axis along a warm front over the area was winding down with loss of heating. After a brief lull overnight, bands of convection along outflow boundaries and, eventually a cold front, will arrive from the west. Even a late arrival could create an 18-hour window of rounds of showers and thunderstorms, until the cold front finally crosses early Monday morning. Cold front to our west will continue to move eastward overnight and should be on our doorstep by 12z Sunday. Cold front pushes through Sunday night and exits early Monday morning.
1037 PM EDT Sat May 20 2017 High pressure will slowly retreat off the east coast through Sunday, maintaining rain-free weather, for most of the area.
Under partly cloudy skies with east to southeast moderate breezes, temperatures in the Florida Keys area in the lower 80s.
Warm lows will range from the lower 70s interior to mid 70s from Melbourne south along the coast. Max temps will be in the lower 90s inland and mid-upper 80s at the coast.
627 PM CDT Sat May 20 2017 Quiet weather expected to continue tonight-Sunday, as low-level high pressure moves across the Heartland.
632 PM CDT Sat May 20 2017 Light showers and patchy drizzle associated with a slow moving upper low have been fairly persistent all day and will continue across the area this afternoon. As the low tracks off to the northeast any remaining showers should begin to taper off. Temps could reach near freezing in our northwest counties where we have a Frost Advisory in effect. Monday looks to be the best chance for showers and thunderstorms in the near future as a cold front makes its way across the area.
742 PM EDT Sat May 20 2017 High pressure well to the north of the state will slide to the south and east tonight and be centered over the eastern seaboard on Sunday morning. Low pressure will move from the plains states into the upper Great Lakes Sunday and Monday. A cold front will push through the state later Monday. The weather will remain unsettled through the week as a large upper level trough advancing slowly from the midwest. A cold front should cross central Pennsylvania Sunday night into early Monday, accompanied by scattered showers and possibly some thunder.
SHORT TERM (Tonight through Thursday Night):An inverted 700mb trough across the Yucatan peninsula will move westward across the Bay of Campeche and the southwest Gulf of Mexico Thursday into Thursday night. Will mention isolated showers Thursday as the seabreeze front develops across the lower Texas coast and moves inland Thurs afternoon. Highs Thurs afternoon will be a couple degrees cooler compared to the past couple of days with the increase in clouds and isolated rain chances.
Primary threat from this activity will be lightning strikes and strong wind gusts due to the high bases producing little rain. Expect the activity to struggle to move off the higher terrain but organized cold pools with propagate eastward and bring gusty winds and weaker thunderstorms to areas over the plains to about a Roundup to Billings line. Wave generating tonights thunder weakens the ridge axis a bit and shifts it westward which causes Thursday to be slightly cooler with winds lighter especially for eastern areas. Monsoonal moisture rotating around the western US ridge moves over the area tomorrow and a weak frontal boundary laying over the central zones helps become the focus for more thunderstorm activity. With convection developing during peak heating and slightly cooler temps aloft temperatures will be a few degrees cooler but still above normal in the 90s.
253 PM CDT Wed Jul 5 2017 Tonight-Thursday: Mild night in store with ridge over the area. Dry but warmer weather expected on Thursday as return flow slowly develops.
The breakup of the low clouds could vary again as it did this morning with some areas seeing clouds becoming sct at daybreak. In the mid and upper levels of the atmosphere northerly flow continues as wind is funneled down between the high pressure over the Rockies and a trough of low pressure over Missouri. Most areas will see highs in the mid to upper 90s allowing afternoon heat index values to top out above 100 degrees as southerly flow at the surface maintains the low level moisture across South Central Texas.
659 PM EDT Wed Jul 5 2017 Rain chances increase tonight into Thursday as a low pressure system approaches from the west.
420 PM CDT Wed Jul 5 2017 This Evening through Tomorrow: An upper-level low pressure system can be seen on water vapor satellite imagery spinning over Missouri this afternoon, with a few narrow bands of showers and storms where some convection has been able to organize. Most of the forecast area, however, will be dominated by subsidence from a ridge stretched out along the Gulf Coast. A weak frontal boundary will remain stalled out north of our forecast area through tomorrow afternoon as the upper low weakens and a ridge over the Rocky Mountains spreads eastward. Isolated to scattered showers and storms will be possible across the area again tomorrow, with the better rain chances being focused closer to the frontal boundary and upper trough axis.
259 PM MDT Wed Jul 5 2017 Storms fired along the peaks and ridges as expected late this morning into early afternoon with storms collapsing as they drift off the higher terrain. This would indicate the strong ridge of high pressure is directly overhead, limiting storms from drifting much into the valleys. Hot and dry conditions remain in place with H7 temps of 20C keeping triple digit heat in the lower valleys of southeast Utah and the Grand Valley.
205 PM EDT Wed Jul 5 2017 High pressure will provide another pleasant day with seasonal temperatures, low humidity and generally rain-free weather.
328 PM CDT Wed Jul 5 2017 Water vapor imagery this afternoon depicts the waa regime lifting northeast towards the meandering upper low settled over MO this afternoon. Quiet weather anticipated tonight and Thursday as the northern stream upper trough across the Great Lakes, lifts the upper low eastward and ushers in ridging into the central plains. A drier and much warmer airmass advects into the low levels tomorrow afternoon, especially across north central KS where highs in the upper 90s are likely. Elsewhere readings peak in the low to middle 90s, resulting in heat indices in the 94 to 99 degree range.
A ridge of high pressure will remain the dominant weather feature across the region through the upcoming weekend.
However dewpoints remain anchored in the low 70s so still expect overnight lows to be on track. Chattanooga Airport, TN 70 87 71 88 / 40 60 50 30 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 70 85 70 86 / 50 60 60 40 Oak Ridge, TN 70 85 70 86 / 50 70 70 40 Tri Cities Airport, TN 67 83 67 83 / 30 70 70 50.
157 PM MDT Wed Jul 5 2017 Strong upper ridge centered near the Four Corners will continue to dominate in the short term. For Thursday, ridge will strengthen a bit during the day. An upper level ridge will gradually build east from the Rockies onto the Plains through the period. However some weak short wave troughs will still move across the Tri-State Area during the period, allowing for chances for rainfall for different parts of the area each day for this period. Difficult to time out the arrival of these troughs at this time range due to their weak nature.
3 pm observations show that area temperatures are running about 2 to 10 degrees cooler than at this time yesterday (coolest in the southwest) and dewpoint temps were about 3-5 degrees cooler, and as such surface-based instability has waned. There is some low-level convergence in that area and there is also a weak convective signal in some of the high-res guidance.
A slow-moving closed low over Missouri today will weaken as it drifts eastward tonight and Thursday, to a position along the Ohio Valley tomorrow afternoon.