Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
ABR 88D radar continues to show the potential for a light wintry mix of snow or freezing drizzle over far northeastern South Dakota. An inverted trough will nose up into the Dakotas today as a low slowly moves off the Rockies. Moisture may be lacking at times in the dendritic growth zone so isolated freezing drizzle is not out of the question. High pressure will build in from the northwest on Monday dragging in drier air with it. Temperatures will be modified by cloud cover today and an upper trough on Monday.
104 PM EDT Sun Mar 15 2020 Following a dry and warmer beginning, periodic rain can be expected as a series of disturbances cross the region this week. Dry weather can be expected through Monday as high pressure slides across the area, although insolation will likely be marred by high cloudiness. The flat ridging will also support high temperature a few degrees above the mid March averages.
Decided to allow the Freezing Fog Advisory to expire on time at 9 AM. Overnight WV/IR imagery revealed a upper low situated off the Northern CA coast, with a downstream upper ridge over the Central CONUS. A front was stalled just west of the Laramie Range, with extensive low stratus, freezing fog and drizzle to the east. The lowest visibilities were along the I-80 corridor from Vedauwoo/Buford east through Cheyenne, Pine Bluffs and Kimball. Recently extended the Freezing Fog Advisory to include Eastern Laramie County and Kimball County, valid until 9 AM MDT this morning.
344 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2020 Aside from some patchy drizzle, we have seen a dry day today, but already beginning to see some light showers developing to our west with the approach of some upper level energy ejecting from the ever-present eastern Pacific low that is part of a large scale blocking pattern. Widespread rain and isolated thunderstorms return later this evening and while overall amounts of rain should remain manageable with any convective elements progressive enough to limit flooding potential, much of the high res guidance hints at the possibility of some heavier rainfall along and north of the 850-mb front, which includes a small portion of southeast OK.
Thereafter, expect MVFR ceiling to quickly redevelop after sunset over the lower Valley terminals and a bit later at McAllen.
246 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2020 Taking a look at the current surface weather picture, strong high pressure was across north central MT and much of southwestern Canada. A trough was set up over the far western Dakotas was extending from far southwestern WY/southern ID/UT/NV area. At 500mb mainly zonal flow continues, with a large low off the northern CA/OR coast, and a secondary trough over Alberta/Saskatchewan. Farther south light snow, and potentially freezing drizzle only briefly moved along the ND/SD border today. Have highlighted the potential for freezing drizzle in the HWO over the Prairie Coteau overnight as surface temperatures fall below freezing and there isn't much of a freezing layer aloft to produce dendrites.
331 PM EDT Sun Mar 15 2020 A broad ridge remains over the southeast with a general west to northwest upper flow. Temperatures expected to be cooler tomorrow as east winds increase. Similar pattern continues as the past several days with high pressure located over the Gulf of Mexico and nearly zonal mid and upper level flow across the local forecast area.
910 AM MDT Sun Mar 15 2020 The low pressure system along the northern California coast will generate a strong and mild southerly flow across Utah through Monday. This low pressure will slowly drift east into the Great Basin and bring the potential for widespread precipitation over Utah midweek. An expansive closed low continues to churn off the Oregon coast. HREF indicates destabilization takes place due to diurnal heating this afternoon, particularly across northern Utah closer to the cold pool aloft associated with the closed low. The upper low currently centered along the northern California will move little from that position through early Monday. A deep layer south-southwest flow aloft east of the low center will maintain mild and windy conditions across much of the forecast area early in the week.
Lows mainly in the lower to mid 60s and warmer along the Treasure Coast beaches. Highs may drop a deg or two from Sunday with highs in the lower 80s coast to mid 80s interior. A weak front north of the area will likely remained stalled just north of the area as mid-level ridge centered over western Cuba keeps this boundary from pushing any farther south.
1201 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2020 Quiet weather expected across the region with relatively flat upper level ridging overhead. By late tonight, an incoming cold front will approach, switching our southerly winds from Sunday around to the northwest. Better forcing looks to be focused over SW MN, although could see enough saturation in the lower atmosphere to squeeze out a few sprinkles or flurries elsewhere.
A 1035 millibar arctic high pressure will continue to be situated over central Montana tonight into Monday. This will keep a moderate wind gradient over the region, but only the gaps and ridges will feel the easterly breezes.
131 PM EDT Sun Mar 15 2020 Strong high pressure working its way slowly east across Ontario will remain in complete control of our weather today. High pressure over far northern Ontario will build toward the lower St Lawrence Valley thru tonight. Ridging will cross northern MI today, with return flow getting underway in its wake tonight.
257 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2020 Snow across northern North Dakota and freezing drizzle to the south highlight the short term forecast package. Broad warm air advection and isentropic lift in the low-mid levels was ongoing over western/central North Dakota with radar showing a wide area of snow across northern North Dakota co-located with 700mb frontogenesis. Further south, reports of freezing drizzle were common this afternoon where isentropic lift was shallow and less saturation was present in the dendritic growth zone. This wave and associated cold front could bring some more light snow through Monday morning, though additional accumulations are not expected. On Monday, breezy northwest winds will be in place with weak cold air advection and northwesterly flow in the low levels.
1107 AM EDT Sun Mar 15 2020 Currently - Earlier shower activity from overnight has diminished but the associated clouds still linger across the Lower Keys. North of the island chain, where waters are cooler, the winds are slightly north of east. Looking at surface observations, we are slightly warmer this morning than this time yesterday. North of the island chain, where the waters are cooler, winds will remain northeast to east.
Minimal updates were made otherwise to the forecast this morning with taking down the high temperatures today by a couple of degrees. As this upper level low pressure cut-off center circulation becomes completely separated from the northern stream flow, a shockingly cold punch of temperatures will sneak into portions of our area from central and northern Montana over the next 2 or 3 days. By mid-week, temperatures will climb to more normal levels as the influence of the colder low pressure trough slowly weakens away from the region.
350 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2020 Mid-afternoon sfc analysis/local 88D imagery/satellite imagery show the weak cool front oozing through our nrn zones at this time, with obs showing briefly elevated nerly winds and dewpoints down to the lower 60s behind it. Water vapor imagery shows weak ridging in place over the cntl/wrn Gulf while a series of weak disturbances were noted in the wrly/swrly flow behind it.
As an upper trough digs southward along the California coast, this will provide southwest flow aloft for the southern Plains.
229 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2020 Cooler and drier air will make a short appearance in the TN Valley tonight as a cold front continues to push to our south. As for temps, CAA will help overnight lows range from the lower 40s in Southern Middle TN and NW AL to the upper 40s in NE AL.
Precipitation amounts would be light, and could even be some patchy drizzle, but it appears surface temperatures generally remain above freezing through the night into Monday morning.
Despite a sprawling ridge of high pressure extending from Quebec/Ontario into the Plains, ample diurnal cloudiness developed across much of central Illinois this afternoon.
223 PM MDT Sun Mar 15 2020 The latest water vapor images and upper-air analysis had a large upper low off the West Coast, southwest flow across the CWA, and a ridge over the southeastern US. A weak cold front had moved into northeastern WY and far northwestern SD, with fog in its wake. Some fog also may occur as cooler air moves in behind the cold front.
Minimal updates were made otherwise to the forecast this morning with taking down the high temperatures today by a couple of degrees. As this upper level low pressure cut-off center circulation becomes completely separated from the northern stream flow, a shockingly cold punch of temperatures will sneak into portions of our area from central and northern Montana over the next 2 or 3 days. By mid-week, temperatures will climb to more normal levels as the influence of the colder low pressure trough slowly weakens away from the region. Snow showers through southern TAF sites during the day with the possibility for freezing drizzle before 00Z.
331 PM EDT Sun Mar 15 2020 Mid to upper ridging will remain prominent from the eastern Gulf of Mexico through the northwest Caribbean Sea. The anomalously strong ridge will provide for subsidence and drying aloft, while supporting low-level subtropical ridging branching into our area. Monday's weather will be similar to today's as high pressure remains in control. not much to talk about with a 500mb ridge over the area, and high pressure sitting off to the northeast.
This will allow for moist upslope flow to occur across the area so have included a mention of fog and drizzle as the lowest levels are expected to remain saturated up to around 5,000 feet.
247 PM EDT Sun Mar 15 2020 A large area of high pressure moving across Southern Ontario and Quebec will push drier and seasonably cool air south into Pennsylvania for today and Monday.
Highs tomorrow are progged to reach into the low 50s across northern and central Kansas where clouds will remain throughout the day to upper 60s across far southwestern Kansas.
A surface frontal boundary north of the forecast area will drift south through the area and offshore tonight as high pressure builds in from the north. A dry weather pattern will persist through the near term as upper ridging remains over the northern gulf and deep south, with the exception of a small chance of a light shower over our extreme northeastern zones Monday afternoon as the frontal boundary moves back northward. Today's highs remain on track to top out in the lower to mid 80s inland, with upper 70s along the coast. Highs on Monday should again reach into the lower to mid 80s over the interior, and in the mid to upper 70s along the coast.
Dry weather is expected much of the week ahead as high pressure builds into the area.
The pesky upper low that has been hovering along the California coast.
206 PM EDT Sun Mar 15 2020 High pressure will build into the Great Lakes today offering dry weather with temperatures a little below normal. The high will slide off to the east Monday with temperatures moderating to near normal.
326 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2020 Upper ridging across the southern Gulf of Mexico keeping the storm track to the north of our area today. This boundary producing quite the temperature spread across Mississippi and Louisiana, with temperatures in the lower 50s north of Interstate 20, and low to mid 80s across much of our area. Gulf ridging rather stubbornly hanging in for the next several days. This may be just enough to hold off fog development in this area, and for now, will limit tonight's Fog Advisories to the lower portions of the coastal parishes of Louisiana and adjacent coastal waters. Can't rule out fog further north, but have limited it to the higher probability areas for now.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 49 61 53 67 54 / 10 20 80 60 20 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 46 62 53 64 51 / 10 20 80 70 20 Oak Ridge, TN 44 62 53 64 50 / 10 20 80 70 20 Tri Cities Airport, TN 39 59 49 61 46 / 10 30 80 80 20.
Southwest flow aloft will continue over South Texas through the short-term period as an upper level high pressure remains centered over the Gulf waters near the Yucatan Peninsula. Overnight lows will generally range from the mid 60s to the lower 70s both nights, with highs on Monday in the mid 70s to upper 80s. High dewpoints over slightly cooler waters may lead to patchy fog development over the bays and nearshore waters again tonight and Monday night.
1255 PM EDT Sun Mar 15 2020 High pressure builds over the region today and Monday with fair weather and seasonable temperatures.
1115 AM CDT Sun Mar 15 2020 Late morning sfc analysis shows a sfc trof/weak cool front lying not far north of the forecast area, while water vapor imagery shows a weak disturbance crossing TX this morning. /issued 647 AM CDT Sun Mar 15 2020/ A cold front now draped across northern Louisiana will advance into the forecast area as the day progresses. Elevated storms are active in south Arkansas behind a stalled cold front the extends from west Texas into northern Louisiana and eastward across central Georgia. Mild temperatures are expected for Monday as easterly winds keep the higher dew points down at the coast.
Upper trough out west with ridge over the Gulf of Mexico. The front will move slowly south through the area this evening as a strong pressure ridge over eastern Canada moves east and begins to build down the eastern seaboard overnight. Expect some patchy light showers this evening especially near the front associated with mid level short wave trough.
A moist and unstable southwesterly flow aloft will continue to provide the area with showers today as an upper low remains off the west coast.
A brief break in the precipitation is expected tonight as weak high pressure settles into the Mid-South tonight. Short term models including Convective Allowing Model Solutions (CAMs) suggest rain will begin to develop across the Lower Mississippi Valley on Monday as the aforementioned front begins to move back north as a warm front.
Have hedged temperatures towards the slightly warmer side of guidance, with lows a degree or two from freezing. Recent warm spell across the area has warmed surface to near or just above freezing. Will need to keep a close eye on locations that do fall below freezing for potential ice impacts with surface near freezing. Expecting persistent low clouds to continue into Monday, keeping temperatures cooler than guidance would suggest. Clouds are expected to clear Monday night leading to a cooler night across the region.
354 PM EDT Sun Mar 15 2020 Water vapor imagery shows an upper level ridge firmly in place over the Gulf of Mexico. To its north a trough continues to move across the Great Lakes and New England States. Upstream an upper level low and associated trough is digging along the California and Oregon coastlines. At the surface, a ridge axis extends from the western North Atlantic, across the Sunshine State and over the Gulf. Current temperatures are in the lower to mid 80s with dewpoints in the upper 60s.
1253 PM EDT Sun Mar 15 2020 VFR through the period with stout NE/ENE wind today giving way to light flow out of the SE quadrant overnight courtesy of nocturnal stabilization and high pressure departing from Ontario. Accounting for full mid March sun this afternoon will still boost afternoon highs into the low 40s. The daytime highs will however be limited to a degree by increasing cloud cover as the region of low level moisture across the Lower Ohio Valley is driven into Se Mi.
1217 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2020 Morning soundings show a saturated column in the lowest 1 kilometer of the atmosphere, along with some weak lift.
1014 PM EDT Sun Mar 15 2020 Currently - A baggy ridge across the Florida Peninsula is producing light to gentle mostly easterly breezes across the Florida Keys. Short Term Update - Ridging will continue to dominate the area overnight. Ridging to our north will maintain gentle breezes, ranging from east northeasterly to east southeasterly.
Dry weather is in store for much of the week ahead as high pressure builds offshore and then moves slightly onshore. The week will start off cooler with morning lows below freezing in spots.
There is some indications of lingering light snow or flurries overnight in the east from strengthening cyclonic flow over the high plains. Given any additional snow in the west will be spotty, brief and light, we will cancel the highlights at the lower elevations and the Crazies.
311 PM MDT Sun Mar 15 2020 The low pressure system along the northern California coast will generate a strong and mild southerly flow across Utah through Monday. This low pressure will slowly drift east into the Great Basin and bring the potential for widespread precipitation over Utah midweek.
534 PM MDT Sun Mar 15 2020 The latest water vapor images and upper-air analysis had a large upper low off the West Coast, southwest flow across the CWA, and a ridge over the southeastern US. A weak cold front had moved into northeastern WY and far northwestern SD, with fog in its wake. Some fog also may occur as cooler air moves in behind the cold front.
These winds, along with continued stratus and the stationary front to the south, have kept high temperatures suppressed today, in the lower 40s for most locations. While the Evansville Tri-state is more likely to see patchy cloud cover than the rest of the region tonight, continued cloudiness should keep lows above freezing. Off the Pacific coast, a strong low pressure system is located in a deep trough. The shift to light southerly winds will result in warmer temperatures though highs will still be around 5 degrees below average for mid-March.
543 PM EDT Sun Mar 15 2020 A large area of high pressure moving across Southern Ontario and Quebec will push drier and seasonably cool air south into Pennsylvania for today and Monday.
/issued 331 PM EDT Sun Mar 15 2020/ Mid to upper ridging will remain prominent from the eastern Gulf of Mexico through the northwest Caribbean Sea. The anomalously strong ridge will provide for subsidence and drying aloft, while supporting low-level subtropical ridging branching into our area. Monday's weather will be similar to today's as high pressure remains in control. not much to talk about with a 500mb ridge over the area, and high pressure sitting off to the northeast.
The deep cold, core upper level low is currently sitting of the coast of Cape Mendocino.
Overnight the front will remain south of the area with strong high pressure building into the Great Lakes. Although skies will be mostly cloudy with the cold air advection overnight lows will range from the mid 40s north to the low 50s south.
In addition, area soundings across central and southwest Nebraska support a mention of patchy light drizzle or freezing drizzle. Lows will be mild with the increasing moisture and southerly flow with most areas seeing lows right around the freezing mark. Airmass will be a bit drier behind the front which may allow for a few breaks in the low clouds or even some clearing across portions of north central Nebraska, but the south and western portions of the state will likely remain locked in with the cloud cover. An active weather pattern for the coming week as a large upper trough currently digging southward along the west coast will eject eastward into the plains later this week.
/Issued 344 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2020/ Aside from some patchy drizzle, we have seen a dry day today, but already beginning to see some light showers developing to our west with the approach of some upper level energy ejecting from the ever-present eastern Pacific low that is part of a large scale blocking pattern. Widespread rain and isolated thunderstorms return later this evening and while overall amounts of rain should remain manageable with any convective elements progressive enough to limit flooding potential, much of the high res guidance hints at the possibility of some heavier rainfall along and north of the 850-mb front, which includes a small portion of southeast OK.
Tonight: The low pressure system has continued to move further south and the impacts from it have diminished across the Inland Northwest.
Taking a look at the current surface weather picture, strong high pressure was across north central MT and much of southwestern Canada. A trough was set up over the far western Dakotas was extending from far southwestern WY/southern ID/UT/NV area. At 500mb mainly zonal flow continues, with a large low off the northern CA/OR coast, and a secondary trough over Alberta/Saskatchewan. Farther south light snow, and potentially freezing drizzle only briefly moved along the ND/SD border today. Have highlighted the potential for freezing drizzle in the HWO over the Prairie Coteau overnight as surface temperatures fall below freezing and there isn't much of a freezing layer aloft to produce dendrites.
RAP/NAM soundings have this low level moisture lingering through most of Monday, so little change is anticipated.
Some places south and east of Sidney and Glendive have seen patches of freezing drizzle and may continue into tonight.
Went ahead and allowed the Winter Weather Advisory expire at 5 pm for Petroleum and left the rest of the zones (all but Wibaux & Petroleum Counties south of the Missouri River) with theirs as a mix of snow and freezing rain/drizzle will continue through much of the evening and overnight. Some places south and east of Sidney and Glendive have seen patches of freezing drizzle and may continue into tonight.
656 PM EDT Sun Mar 15 2020 Dry weather will continue through Monday under high pressure. Dry weather will continue through the night as a high pressure center slides across eastern Canada. Considered adding some drizzle/freezing drizzle in eastern Tucker County later tonight, but think that moisture and southeast flow will be too weak for much of a threat. A weak warm frontal passage during the day will commence warm advection and bring clouds back northward once again.
622 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2020 Taking a look at the current surface weather picture, strong high pressure was across north central MT and much of southwestern Canada. A trough was set up over the far western Dakotas was extending from far southwestern WY/southern ID/UT/NV area. At 500mb mainly zonal flow continues, with a large low off the northern CA/OR coast, and a secondary trough over Alberta/Saskatchewan. Farther south light snow, and potentially freezing drizzle only briefly moved along the ND/SD border today. Have highlighted the potential for freezing drizzle in the HWO over the Prairie Coteau overnight as surface temperatures fall below freezing and there isn't much of a freezing layer aloft to produce dendrites.
1045 PM EDT Sun Mar 15 2020 Dry weather will continue today as high pressure slides across the region. Otherwise, dry weather can be expected today as high pressure slides across the area, although insolation will likely be marred by high, and eventual mid-lvl cloudiness.
Warm and humid conditions under high pressure will allow for some patchy fog overnight. High pressure will be in place across the waters through much of the period with generally light E/SE winds and afternoon sea breezes near the coast.
For Mon, partly cloudy skies with temps reaching the lower 80s along the coast to mid 80s in the interior counties.
The highest reflectivity are located over central SD, where temperatures are hovering around freezing. Freezing is probably occurring in some areas.
A 'cooler' northeast to east surface wind will reside north of this boundary with highs today in the mid to upper 70s; south and west of this feature, highs are expected in the mid to perhaps upper 80s. Lows tonight will bottom out in the lower 60s.
Lows should be a touch cooler than the past couple nights across eastern parts of the area as some slightly drier air backdoors into the area late tonight. Not expecting West Tx convection to make it into the area with upper ridging in place.