Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
A cold front will stall across the area tonight as it gets caught in the southwest upper flow pattern. A stronger trough digging across the northern plains on Tuesday will send a stronger cold front southward late Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night. A weak area of low pressure moving along the front will help enhance rain coverage during the afternoon with some locally heavy rainfall possible.
1047 AM MST Mon Dec 12 2016 Fast west to northwest flow aloft will remain in place through Tuesday with light orographically driven showers hanging on over the higher terrain. Another push of deeper moisture arrives with this feature, which promises more snowfall for the high country with a mixed bag expected for the valleys.
335 PM CST Mon Dec 12 2016 Arctic high pressure and Wind Chill highlights are the main focus of the short term period. Did bump temperatures a little lower tonight and leaned toward the higher previous forecast guidance for winds on Tuesday. A little warmer on Tuesday with highs mainly in the single digits above zero.
/issued 551 AM CST Mon Dec 12 2016/ 12Z TAFS A line of showers has developed this morning extending northeast to southwest from near AEX to BPT well in advance of a cold front currently digging southward across northwestern Louisiana. Otherwise CIGS are forecast to drop to IFR by mid morning and will likely fluctuate through the afternoon as the cold front approaches the area and then stalls. Significant moisture remains confined to the lower levels, 800 mb and below so not anticipating any great rain makers. Dry weather pattern will then return for mid-week with much cooler temperatures incoming.
While the showers activity will wane through the rest of the afternoon, low clouds will continue to result in MVFR to IFR flight categories at sites through tonight, as a cold front drops southeast through the area, and stalls near the Highway 84 corridor this evening. /19/ An east northeast to west southwest oriented line of light to moderate showers, out ahead of a cold front currently draped northeast to southwest across the Delta region, will continue to shift east across central and southern portions of the forecast area late this morning through this afternoon.
259 PM CST Mon Dec 12 2016 Latest 20z surface analysis shows cold front extending from southern Canada into northeast Nebraska. A frontogenetical band of snow has developed along the cold front per the latest mosaic radar. Surface cold front is expected to move across the forecast area this evening.
Cirrostratus is keeping temps in the low 30s late this morning across central and northern OK.
Light snow is moving quickly through through south central and eastern ND as high pressure builds into the west. Light snowfall accumulations this morning and wind chill headlines top the highlights in the short term period. Latest water vapor imagery loop shows a deep upper low west of Hudson Bay which will continue to sag southeast with time, reinforcing the arctic air in place across the northern high plains. Bufkit model soundings suggest something closer to the CONSMOS which places the highest sustained winds across the north and weaker winds in the south. Not a real strong signal in cold air advection overlapping the location of the strongest isallobaric forcing, which the high resolution models suggests will reside from southeast Montana into western and central South Dakota.
136 PM EST Mon Dec 12 2016 High pressure crosses tonight. A cold front crosses Tuesday night, followed by much colder weather through the balance of the work week. Low level moisture beneath post-frontal inversion will lead to freezing drizzle in the northern WV mountains, as low level cold advection continues. High pressure will build overnight, ending the drizzle and breaking up the clouds. A pair of upper level waves out ahead of an approaching cold front will cross as a split system, with showers possible across the northern and southern fringes of the forecast area.
Weak high pressure over the area will lead to light winds and little to no cloud aloft, so fog and stratus is likely to reform in the west side valleys tonight. Not surprisingly there are two blocking highs. The showers currently over the area are associated with the weak southern end of a cold front moving through the area. The zonal flow over the area will weaken beginning today and flat ridging will gradually build north along the west coast.
As of 18Z the surface cold front stretched from northern Alabama to the Texas coast. Widespread fog and low clouds are expected to develop again tonight and will help to keep temperatures on the warmer side in the mid to upper 50s.
1253 PM EST Mon Dec 12 2016 Aviation The low that produced 5 to 10 inches of snow across the region is now over northern Lake Huron and continues to move east. A cold front moving across Lake Michigan will usher in another shot of colder air.
423 PM EST Mon Dec 12 2016 A cold front crossing the Ohio Valley will move through the area tonight and become nearly stationary across Georgia. The front will move back north as a warm front Tuesday.
Next in the series of dry cold fronts will reach the Hays vicinity around 9-10 pm, and clear the remainder of SW KS by 3 am Tuesday. The NE zones, deepest in this colder airmass, will struggle to get above freezing Tuesday afternoon. The above mentioned front will bring in cooler highs for Tuesday.
338 PM CST Mon Dec 12 2016 A large upper level low pressure area in central Canada will move slowly southeast throughout the short term.
Clouds are increasing along the Lower Texas coast in the warm sector where models indicate that isentropic upglide around 300K level was occurring. Dewpoint temperatures were in the upper 60s to lower 70s over the Gulf waters, while water temps were in the lower 60s along the coast and southern bays and the upper 50s for northern bays.
213 PM MST Mon Dec 12 2016 Upper level analysis has large upper low in central Canada with cyclonic flow across much of the CONUS. At the surface, strong Arctic high pressure has settled into the Northern Plains. Upper low in central Canada moves very little.
328 PM CST Mon Dec 12 2016 Cold front difficult to make out this afternoon, but a best guess based on weak temp/dew point gradient puts it from between Jacksonville and Nacogdoches, extending ewd to just n of Natchitoches.
A cold front will move into the area early Tuesday morning though very little change other than wind direction is expected as winds should remain well under 10 kts. Surface lee troughing will quickly redevelop to the west this afternoon. However, areas off the caprock will still remain relatively cool this afternoon still under the influence of some surface ridging and upslope flow. By early Tuesday morning, another dry cold front will be beginning to push through the region.
Elsewhere, plenty of sunshine has resulted in afternoon temperatures in the lower 60s to lower 70s. Most of the fog should burn off by mid-morning as winds transition to a more southwest to westerly direction in advance of a cold front. The cold front should move into the eastern Hill country and I-35 corridor near and north of Austin by late afternoon. The cold front will move southward Tuesday night and should push into the coastal plains and southern Rio Grande plains around midnight.
248 PM CST Mon Dec 12 2016 18Z surface data has high pressure over the mid-Mississippi Valley with an arctic front running from the arrowhead of Minnesota into northern Nebraska. Quiet and cold conditions with slowly increasing clouds will be seen through sunset as high pressure moves into the Great Lakes.
1122 AM CST Mon Dec 12 2016 Yesterdays cold front has pushed well south of the area at this time, with another shot of cold air settling over most of the region. As this warm front pushes north, moisture quality isnt all that great, with mainly low-mid clouds expected. Another polar cold front will drop south into the state tonight with the main impact a shift to an occasionally gusty north wind.
Not surprisingly there are two blocking highs. The showers currently over the area are associated with the weak southern end of a cold front moving through the area. The zonal flow over the area will weaken beginning today and flat ridging will gradually build north along the west coast.
In the middle and upper levels, (700-200 mb), Latest available IR imagery overlaid with model streamline analysis as of 200 pm depicts the continuation of a low amplitude polar long wave trough covering the entire CONUS. Well to the southeast of that feature, the center of a deep and warm anticyclone is located over the Dominican Republic. A cold front extends out ahead of it from east of Lake Superior down to SE Texas. Much closer to the Keys, the weakened western periphery of a surface anticyclone extends westwards to across South Florida from the South Central Atlantic. Temperatures over the islands have reached the lower 80s with dewpoints in the lower to middle 70s.
234 PM EST Mon Dec 12 2016 A cold front crossing the Ohio Valley will move through the area tonight and become nearly stationary across Georgia. The front will move back north as a warm front Tuesday.
1107 AM EST Mon Dec 12 2016 A weak cold front will cross the region today.
230 PM CST Mon Dec 12 2016 Shower activity has moved well off to the east, and cloud cover is all that remains from the upper trough and weak cold front. A more broad upper trough over the Great Lakes will drag a cold front through the region, which will not only kick out the smaller wave bringing precip Tuesday, but will also bring another shot of Arctic air.
355 PM EST Mon Dec 12 2016 Low pressure approaching from the Great Lakes region will track east into the Maritimes tonight. Weak high pressure will build across the region on Tuesday.
330 PM EST Mon Dec 12 2016 High pressure will provide dry conditions tonight with lows in the teens to low 20s. A cold front will bring increasing chances for a period of snow to areas mainly along and southeast of Route 24 on Tuesday.
Precipitation is increasing across Central NY ahead of a cold front that is moving through western NY. A few wet snowflakes are possible over the higher terrain but mainly rain showers for the next hour or two.
An embedded trough will pass to our north as it rotates about a low in northern Manitoba. There continues to be a fair temperature gradient from east to west with the cooler temperatures out east. A cold front will enter the panhandle this evening and should largely be through the entire CWFA by sunrise Tuesday.
255 PM CST Mon Dec 12 2016 Another day with a cold front moving through the Plains. The main system is well off to the north in Canada which helps swoop in cooler air once more. The upper levels indicate a zonal flow regime while the lower levels indicate a ridge to follow in advance of the system moving onshore in the middle of the week. In the wake of the cold front, highs will be in the 30s for most of the week.
An east northeast to west southwest oriented line of light to moderate showers, out ahead of a cold front currently draped northeast to southwest across the Delta region, will continue to shift east across central and southern portions of the forecast area late this morning through this afternoon.
243 AM PST Wed Jan 11 2017 A low pressure system will bring increasing showers today along with areas of strong winds in the mountains and deserts.
704 AM EST Wed Jan 11 2017 Aviation Low pressure will move across southern Lower Michigan later today and Thursday bringing a mixed bag of precipitation with rain across the south and snow and ice across the north.
435 AM PST Wed Jan 11 2017 Above average temperatures will continue through today along with slight chances of precipitation especially in the higher elevations. Cooler temperatures will move into the area by Thursday along with increased chances of precipitation.
As the wave of low pressure passes to the south and east, the stationary front over central WI will move south as a cold front. Farther to the south and east, many areas will experience all precipitation types including freezing rain.
With High pressure over the Dakotas, winds will be light, but northerly.
1027 AM EST Wed Jan 11 2017 Stationary High Pressure Ridge from the Wrn Atlc extending West across NE FL/SE GA will keep quiet weather in place through Thursday with main impact being late night/early morning dense fog potential. Warming trend continues with highs in the lower/middle 70s inland and near 70 along the beaches with afternoon sea breeze.
An upper low is forecast to skirt southward just off the coast and will bring a chance of thunderstorms in addition to showers as it moves through. Snow levels will lower in time for the system expected tomorrow, which will allow a dusting of snow over the highest elevations. The highest peaks in Big Sur area could pick up a few inches of snow.
Snow levels are a bit tricky this morning, which is the normal of late, as the low elevation snowpack remaining in some areas is resulting in cold air reservoirs that have been aiding snow levels in falling below the model guidance.
/issued 427 AM CST Wed Jan 11 2017/ SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday): High pressure across the southeast U. will interact with low pressure across the Central Plains resulting in breezy to windy conditions and warm temperatures across the area today. Highs will be in the 70s along the coast due to the cooler shelf waters. Additionally, the warm and moist south and southeast winds moving over much cooler nearshore waters may produce periods of sea fog along the coast.
Further west, surface cyclogenesis continues across the High Plains region, with strong southerly return flow across much of the eastern half of the CONUS. Aloft, dominant ridging continues to build across the eastern Gulf of Mexico and Florida Straits. For the next couple of days, we will continue to see increasing daytime temperatures as high pressure becomes a dominant force across the Gulf of Mexico.
Currently a band of showers are working back north as weak sfc boundary that made a run toward the CWA yesterday moves back north as a warm front. Another cold front will move toward the area on Thursday. Rain chances will once again be in the likely category Thursday night as the cold front moves through.
RMcQueen Our unseasonably warm temperatures continue through Thursday though we wont approach record warmth like the previous couple days, mainly due to winds easing under Arctic high pressure across the Northern and Central Plains expanding southwest across our region.
A cold front, just west of Harney and Baker Counties at 10z, will shift southeast across the region today. Temperatures drop to about 10 degrees below normal Thursday though fog and/or stratus development in the valleys might keep temperatures a little warmer Thursday morning than forecast. Temperatures will fall below freezing early Thursday morning which will stop the snowmelt however, this will freeze the remaining water and snow for icy conditions on untreated roads.
In the wake of this system, an arctic cold front will move southeast across the area today. Meanwhile further south another short wave trough moving out of Nebraska will produce a strong band of 900 to 600 mb frontogenesis across northeast Iowa and southwest Wisconsin from late this morning into the afternoon. With the soundings showing that there will be a loss of ice aloft and an elevated warm layer aloft, there will be a wintry mix of snow, sleet, and freezing rain developing late this morning and continuing into the afternoon across northeast Iowa and southwest Wisconsin. For tonight, a short wave trough will move quickly east across the area. On Thursday night, a strong arctic high pressure area will move across the area.
848 AM MST Wed Jan 11 2017 Current surface analysis shows arctic front south of the cwa, with high pressure centered over northern MT. Warmest temperatures will be in the higher elevations of the Black Hills.
315 AM MST Wed Jan 11 2017 Cold front across central Nebraska this morning will sag southwest into the forecast area today.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 61 53 67 54 / 70 10 10 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 57 52 66 53 / 70 20 10 20 Oak Ridge, TN 56 52 65 55 / 70 30 10 30 Tri Cities Airport, TN 54 45 65 49 / 70 20 10 30.
Due to limited moisture, generally less than an inch of total accumulation is expected with the highest amounts near the South Dakota/Nebraska border.
1025 AM EST Wed Jan 11 2017 High pres ridge centered off the Carolina Coast and extending SW into the GOMex will maintain an easterly flow acrs the FL Peninsula for the next 24hrs. A weak/shallow sfc trof has dvlpd along the immediate coast, as light northerly sfc winds were still noted acrs much of central FL as of mid mrng. Lcl models show the coastal trof breaking down by midday with minimal -shra activity, while the 06Z MAV MOS guidance indicates PoPs AOB 10pct. Given the low PWats and limited vertical motion, this seems reasonable. High pressure ridge centered off the Carolina Coast will maintain a gentle to moderate easterly breeze acrs the lcl Atlc over the next 24hrs.
437 AM MST Wed Jan 11 2017 Cold front across central Nebraska this morning will sag southwest into the forecast area today.
During this period an upper level high will build over the southeastern states and a trough will dig down along the west coast. The low level flow will continue to be from the southeast.
551 AM EST Wed Jan 11 2017 High pressure will move across the area this morning providing dry conditions. A low pressure system will move northeast across the Great Lakes tonight and Thursday causing rain and isolated thunderstorms in our area.
In the low levels of the atmosphere, an Atlantic ridge of high pressure will extend across north Florida this afternoon. In the mid levels of the atmosphere, an area of high pressure will be located just north of the Bahamas today. In the upper levels of the atmosphere, a ridge of high pressure will amplify over the eastern Gulf of Mexico this afternoon.
This is occurring as a warm front lifts back northward away from the region while a cold front begins to shift southward across the central Plains.
928 AM EST Wed Jan 11 2017 A front will stall just to our north today then lift north as a warm front late today and tonight, providing a slight chance of showers northern areas this morning.
The next eastern Pacific trough will track east across the Great Basin today.
The higher wind speeds and gusts are expected at KABI and KSJT. With mostly sunny skies and 850mb temperatures a few degrees higher than yesterday, highs this afternoon are expected to be in the lower 80s across much of west central Texas, with upper 70s for some of our eastern and southern counties.
A quasi-zonal upper level flow will continue over the CONUS today with an upper level low moving into California on Thursday. Expect this low level jet will mix down by mid morning to provide strong gusty winds over the coastal plains. Expect cooler shelf waters over the bays and near shore waters will inhibit mixing and keep winds down to SCEC levels today into tonight. The advection of warm moist air, with dewpoint temps in the mid to upper 60s, over the cooler shelf waters does not appear to be strong enough to form areas of fog. Moisture advection east of the low level jet could provide some light showers mainly over the offshore waters this morning.
/Issued 241 AM CST Wed Jan 11 2017/ Main concern in the short term will be the high fire danger for this afternoon, especially in northeast Oklahoma. Strong arctic cold front will move into northeast Oklahoma by mid evening.
SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday): High pressure across the southeast U. will interact with low pressure across the Central Plains resulting in breezy to windy conditions and warm temperatures across the area today. Highs will be in the 70s along the coast due to the cooler shelf waters. Additionally, the warm and moist south and southeast winds moving over much cooler nearshore waters may produce periods of sea fog along the coast.
From the Highway 12 corridor in western Montana and points south are where the snow continues to fall this morning, in addition to much of central Idaho.
/issued 327 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016/ A very warm and humid afternoon across the forecast area with temperatures away from the immediate coast in the upper 80s to around 90F, and heat index readings in the low to mid 90s. With some upper level ridging and mid level dry air noted across the forecast area, local radars have been void of any significant convection so far. Water vapor imagery shows an upper level low over southern California, with an upper level northern stream trough moving into the Pacific Northwest. Disturbance rotating around the upper level low is expected to be picked up by the southern stream and pushed toward the forecast area, cutting briefly into the upper level ridge by Monday afternoon.
Skies will clear tonight as an upper level ridge builds offshore.
1021 PM EDT SUN MAY 29 2016 A weak cold front will move through the region tonight, providing a chance of showers and thunderstorms. High pressure will move in on Monday, with drier conditions expected through the middle of the week.
The TN valley will be between these two systems along with a weak area of high pressure over the cwa.
This afternoon residual moisture with dewpoints in the lower 60s and steep low-level lapse rates have caused MLCAPES to reach around 2,000 J/KG across the southern counties of the CWA. Highs will reach the lower to mid 80s.
515 PM MDT SUN MAY 29 2016 20Z sfc analysis shows high pressure over the eastern two-thirds of the dakotas and nebraska with weak low pressure to the east of the Rockies. On Monday, the upper low will dip into eastern Montana as it strengthens. A relatively weak frontal boundary will connect with the low later in the day with notable return flow to the east of the boundary. If sustained heating occurs ahead of the low, suspect severe thunderstorms will develop by afternoon and then shift southeastward Monday evening.
845 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016 Mostly clear skies expected across central IL overnight along with light winds as a general high pressure area remains just south of the area. expected to reach the low 60s overnight. Diurnally driven scattered cumulus cloud field with bases of 5- 8k ft will dissipate at sunset leaving fair skies much of tonight with nearby 1020 mb high pressure over AR and southern MO. Lows tonight mostly in the lower 60s which similar MET/MAV guidance reflects. A quiet start to the day is anticipated Monday with high pressure in place at the surface as well as weak upper-level ridging.
Expect these storms to gradually weaken later this evening as the low level ridge move across the area causing the convergence to weaken. There should be enough radiational cooling to allow temperatures to drop into the lower 60s late tonight/early Monday morning over most of the area with a few spots in the upper 50s for lows.
The current satellite water vapour image is showing high pressure building over the Eastern Pacific while a low pressure system pushes into the desert south west. Over the next few days both models build a ridge of high pressure over the Eastern Pacific and California.
906 PM EDT SUN MAY 29 2016 High pressure should result in dry weather for Memorial Day through mid week, with continued warm temperatures. The cold front is currently crossing northwest Ohio, with a band of thunderstorms currently preceding the front across the north-central part of Ohio. An isolated shower or storm will remain possible along the ridges as the cold front trudges eastward.
1152 PM EDT SUN MAY 29 2016 Aviation The region will continue to see slightly cooler and drier air move in tonight.
Otherwise clear to partly cloudy skies tonight with upper trough moving over forecast area.
808 PM EDT SUN MAY 29 2016 A weak cold front will move across the area tonight.
Analysis at 2 PM CDT shows nice spring conditions with westerly winds of 10 to 15+ mph bringing in slightly drier, cooler air and fair skies.
The 18z nam /and to a lesser extent the 18z gfs/ showcased as much as 750-1000j/kg of elevated CAPE tonight on the nose of the low level jet /forcing for ascent/, as the LLJ gradually works northward across the cwa.