Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Elongated surface ridging centered from Texas to Virginia this AM is expected to continue today but weaken as we head into tonight ahead of an approaching surface front. Upper trough continues to shift towards the East Coast on Tuesday, and an upper ridge begins to build into Central AL. This ridge remains in place for the majority of the work week giving us unseasonably warm high temperatures.
Main change in the forecast was to raise highs a few degrees each day more towards the warmer end of guidance, which ended up being a bit warmer than SuperBlend.
High pressure aloft will maintain the unseasonably warm and dry conditions early in the week.
Dry and unseasonably warm weather will continue today across Nevada as high pressure remains intact over the Great Basin. An approaching storm system and cold front is expected to bring rain across Humboldt county beginning Tuesday afternoon.
Mid level trough over the Central plains will travel east and gradually push a front across South Florida tonight into Tuesday returning a short period of rain across South Florida. The highest potential for moderate to heavy showers is for the southeast portion of the peninsula with a low chance of seen of much thunderstorms during this short period. The temperatures will range between the low to mid 70s under a cloudy and rainy day.
A weak cold front will move in from the northwest tonight, bringing some drier air to the region.
The cold front should move south of the forecast area by mid morning with weak low-level cold advection continuing into afternoon.
Have held on to a very small chance for a brief midlevel shower to pass trough Cameron County today, but accumulation of more than a couple hundredths of an inch is very unlikely. This will bring clear skies tonight and tomorrow, with high temperatures tomorrow surging back into the low to mid 80s.
546 AM CST Mon Nov 14 2016 A weak cold front. switching to NW Monday night as the cold front passes across the area. Expect highs today in the lower 60s up a few degrees from yesterday with southerly winds. followed by lows ranging from the upper 30s to the lower 40s Monday night.
This will result in another dry and warmer than average day. Readings across the plains are expected to be near 70 degrees while the high country sees readings from the 40s over higher elevations to near 60 in the high valleys.
A cold front will usher in a much colder airmass for the weekend along with a chance of showers. A weak upper level low evident on satellite imagery moving across southern Missouri will continue to weaken as it pushes east into the mid Ohio Valley through this afternoon.
The weak area of low pressure that drifted across the Mid South over the weekend is over the Mid Atlantic coast this morning and this feature has taken most of the bkn-ovc sky condition with it. Also, some alto cu and cirrus are drifting east from the Lower Ohio Valley in association with a weak area of low pressure aloft so some minor tweaks are in order for sky condition. The low level flow will shift to a westerly direction today and in this regime, smoke from the numerous fires occurring on the Cumberland Plateau will be carried east across the Great Valley. The temperature forecast with highs ranging from the lower 60s north to the upper 60s south appears to be on track.
552 AM CST Mon Nov 14 2016 At H5 strong gulf of Alaska closed low that will be weather maker for northern and central plains late week. There is a ridge over the west dampened by the gulf of Alaska low. There is a trough exiting the northern plains moving towards the Great Lakes and another trough through the Mississippi Valley into the southeast CONUS. Cold front that moved through western Nebraska yesterday is south into the Texas panhandle. Cooler air will filter south into western Nebraska through the day. The upper ridge will push east with western Nebraska in fast northwest flow.
Otherwise, light southwest winds to prevail ahead of the cold front.
714 AM EST Mon Nov 14 2016 A crossing upper low will spawn some clouds for part of the region later today and tonight, but generally dry weather can be expected until a front approaches on Tuesday night. A mid level trough currently over the middle Mississippi Valley will deepen and rotate across the central Appalachians by late today. However, some light rain along the eastern ridge slopes cannot be ruled out; hence, small PoPs have been retained. Dry conditions expected to carry into Tuesday and Tuesday evening, despite broad low pressure across the region.
1015 AM EST Mon Nov 14 2016 A crossing upper low will spawn some clouds for part of the region later today and tonight, but generally dry weather can be expected until a front approaches on Tuesday night. A mid level trough currently over the middle Mississippi Valley will deepen and rotate across the region later today. The primary impact still looks to be a cloud increase; however, some light rain along the eastern ridge slopes cannot be ruled out; hence, small PoPs were retained for those immediate areas.
The exception will be at GAG, WWR, and CSM where a weak cold front has already moved through.
912 AM EST Mon Nov 14 2016 Low pressure will move along the North Carolina coast will track east of the Delmarva tonight.
1008 AM EST Mon Nov 14 2016 Low pressure will lift northeast of the area today.
A weak cold front will move through the area today, approaching the Interstate 20 corridor by 17Z and the Interstate 10 corridor by early afternoon. /issued 242 AM CST Mon Nov 14 2016/ (Today and Tonight) A weak cold front will move south into the northern Big Country early this morning, reaching the I-20 corridor around noon. By late afternoon the cold front will be through the I-10 corridor. Despite the cold frontal passage, afternoon highs will still warm above seasonal norms with lower 70s for the Big Country and mid to upper 70s for the remainder of the forecast area.
Pressure gradient will meanwhile relax as the low settles in, allowing for lighter winds today. These are slightly cooler than yesterday with cooler air filtering in below 850mb and more limited mixing expected. An increase in clouds and lower-level moisture tonight should hold min temps in the upper 30s to low 40s, slightly warmer than this morning. The low will have little impact on temperatures, with readings remaining above normal.
/issued 320 AM CST Mon Nov 14 2016/ Will start the day with an upper ridge over CA with a trough over the Southeast. This ridge will build eastward across the area resulting in warm and dry conditions this week.
A strong U/L trough will dig along the eastern seaboard over the next couple of days. A weak cold front will push across west central and southwest Florida today and tonight. Skies will gradually clear from north to south tonight and Tuesday with slightly cooler drier air advecting across the region.
though it is not a zero chance that a stray shower develops within the higher terrain locations of Western Arkansas. Cloud cover should scatter out enough this afternoon across parts of Eastern Oklahoma to allow for warmer temperatures this afternoon.
523 AM EST Mon Nov 14 2016 Coastal low pressure will provide clouds today and tonight, but mainly dry weather is expected ahead of a mid week front. A mid level trough currently over the middle Mississippi Valley will deepen and rotate across the central Appalachians by late today. Dry conditions expected to carry into Tuesday and Tuesday evening, despite broad low pressure across the region.
A short wave trough tracking across southern Canada today will top the upper level ridge and drop across the Great Lakes Tuesday. The front that comes through with the short wave trough doesn't look to have much forcing along it either. This system will have to work with the moisture that it brings with it, which should be the highest on the north side of the short wave trough, across southern Canada into northern Minnesota and far northern Wisconsin. Before this system arrives though, the upper level ridge will build over the area and with developing southwest flow, warmer air should spread over the region to keep the above normal temperatures in place.
Meanwhile, local radars are detecting a persistent boundary with a broken band of showers on the nearshore and offshore waters southeast of the Lower and Middle Keys. Surface wise, a cold front is draped across the central Florida peninsula and the adjacent Atlantic and gulf waters. A cold front will approach the Florida Keys after 15/06Z with increasing rain chances, and lowering ceilings by 12 to 18z on Tuesday.
High pressure over the deep south will produce N/NW winds thru early Thu, veering out of the NE (onshore) by Fri as high pressure builds to the eastern seaboard.
Surface analysis and observations early this morning indicate a cold front bisecting the state from northeast to southwest while a secondary cold front lingers just north of the international border. Aloft, a weak H5 trough axis is aligned over the western MN border with the Dakotas, between two longwave ridge domes over the southeastern and southwestern CONUS. The surface front and associated upper level trough will slowly progress eastward across the Upper Mississippi River Valley region today, resulting in an increase in cloud cover throughout much of the day. This CAA along with the increase in clouds will result in highs 10-20 degrees cooler than what was experienced yesterday, bringing highs down into the upper 40s to lower 50s.
A cool start with lows dropping into the low to mid 30s in most locations this morning.
Best chances still look to cover northern Harney and Malheur counties and points north in Oregon, and from the Lower Treasure valley to the Boise mountains northward in Idaho. The orographic nature of this event means the mountains of east-central Oregon and west- central ID will see the highest precip amounts through Tuesday with totals of 0. Snow levels will range between 8-9k feet msl across Idaho, dropping to 7500 feet across east-central Oregon on Tuesday as a cold front moves into eastern Oregon.
/issued 441 AM CST Mon Nov 14 2016/ Regional temperatures this morning generally running about 10 degrees cooler than they were this time yesterday thanks to a shot of cooler air. The upper trough that moved through the area yesterday will progress eastward off the eastern seaboard by Tuesday and a secondary front will swing through the area early Tuesday but will have little impact on observable weather other than to reinforce the drier air aloft keeping cloud cover to a minimum through the middle part of the week. At the surface, high pressure will push off to the east Tuesday turning winds southerly which, combined with the nearly cloudless sky, will serve to quickly moderate the cooler temperatures we'll enjoy today.
Winds shift back to the NE around 10-15 knots by Thu-Fri time frame as High Pressure builds north of the region.
Flow aloft is westerly, then becomes southwest as upper ridge axis passes 12Z Wed. Upper level trough over BC will move over the forecast area Mon night.
441 AM CST Mon Nov 14 2016 Regional temperatures this morning generally running about 10 degrees cooler than they were this time yesterday thanks to a shot of cooler air. The upper trough that moved through the area yesterday will progress eastward off the eastern seaboard by Tuesday and a secondary front will swing through the area early Tuesday but will have little impact on observable weather other than to reinforce the drier air aloft keeping cloud cover to a minimum through the middle part of the week. At the surface, high pressure will push off to the east Tuesday turning winds southerly which, combined with the nearly cloudless sky, will serve to quickly moderate the cooler temperatures we'll enjoy today.
Trough axis both at the sfc and aloft traversing the Midwest today.
327 AM MST Mon Nov 14 2016 Dry and unseasonably mild weather will continue across the region during the early part of the week as a shallow ridge forms over the area.
Synoptic lift from a passing upper-level trough this morning could help squeeze out a little drizzle from the stratus, mainly near Lake Superior. A weak ridge of high pressure will move into the Northland from the north and west this afternoon, helping to scatter out some of the stratus for the northern and western forecast area late this afternoon. High temperatures should range from the lower 40s, near the Canadian border, to the middle and upper 40s for the rest of the region. The clouds and winds will help prop up the temperatures, so the lows should only be in the middle to upper 30s. The highs should range from the middle 40s across the far north, to the lower 50s across the south.
A weak upper low was centered over the Arkansas/Missouri border early this morning. Lift associated with this trough will act to saturate the atmosphere and produce some convection this afternoon through the first half of tonight across portions of Arkansas.
Early Monday morning, a weak cold front was slowly progressing across the area, extending roughly from SLN to MYZ at 3 AM.
An upper ridge of high pressure was beginning to nose into California this morning, keeping much of the southwestern US cloud-free. High pressure will continue to build into the southwestern US over the next 24 hrs, providing for dry and warm conditions for the forecast area. Expect max temps in the 60s for the high valleys, and around 70 F for the plains, which is about 10- 15 degrees above seasonal norms.
High pressure ridging will enter the the northern High Plains, and this will lead to an increased northwest flow pattern into western Kansas. A very weak Pacific cold front pushed through overnight, and this brought a nebulous shot of 850-700mb cold advection. This will not result in cooler temperatures at the surface, though, given the downslope offset of the cold advection given the low level trajectories from Wyoming.
Surface winds expected to be lighter in the northern parts of forecast area today as pre- frontal trof moves closer. /Issued 431 AM CDT THU SEP 8 2016/ A short wave trough will approach the Panhandles from the central and southern Rockies today and tonight as abundant low level moisture remains in place across the forecast area. Increasing chances for convection mainly Friday night with drier and much cooler conditions expected this weekend.
This morning's forecast discussion is pretty much a carbon copy of my AFD yesterday since high pressure remains anchored across the region. Current temps range from the lower to upper 80s, heading into the low/mid 90s this afternoon. JMS (Issued 555 AM CDT THU SEP 8 2016) For 12Z TAFs: A large area of high pressure over the region will provide for vfr conditions thru the fcst period. Not a big change synoptically from previous days with a ridge encompassing much of the southeastern states. Given how dry we are and noticing the temps from yesterday, will be leaning towards the higher side of guidance for both days. This gives highs in the lower to middle 90s. Dew points should also mix each afternoon to the lower 60s, maybe even upper 50s again so heat index values won't be much of an issue.
As a result, still have the highest pops in the southeastern zones. There is slightly better bulk shear Friday evening as the base of synoptic trough swings through to the north. The tail end of a strong 100-110 kt 250-hPa jet will be associated with this trough. Temps will be slightly cooler Friday compared to Thursday, but a large cool down is not expected.
900 AM EDT THU SEP 8 2016 A sharp moisture gradient continues over the Florida peninsula this morning (via 12Z Raob data and Water Vapor imagery) with a very dry subsident airmass noted along and to the north of the I-4 corridor where Pw's of less than an inch are bing observed with increasing moisture as one moves south with the highest moisture noted over south Florida. High pressure surface and aloft will remain in control today with a northeast to easterly wind flow continuing over the forecast area.
The wind speeds are expected to be greatest, and the relative humidity the lowest, over far southwestern South Dakota this afternoon so a Red Flag Warning has been issued there for critical fire weather conditions this afternoon into the early evening. Tonight into early Friday a weak surface front will slide southward across the forecast area as an upper trough crosses the northern plains. Cooler air flowing in aloft on Friday will decrease stability enough for low chances of showers and possibly a few thunderstorms during the day on Friday. Friday will be cooler with highs in the lower 60s to lower 70s. Dry and warmer conditions will develop over the weekend as a weak ridge crosses the area.
Morning water vapor satellite imagery is showing dry air continuing to be pulled into northern Florida behind an upper level trough sitting just off the Mid- Atlantic coast. At the surface, the ridge of high pressure remains positioned across the Florida Panhandle, ensuring continued easterly low level flow over the Florida Peninsula today and Friday.
Think there should be a decent amount of sunshine and temps will get into the low to mid 70s. Models are most consistent with putting out QPF along the international border so kept the highest POPs in the north overnight.
705 AM CDT THU SEP 8 2016 High pressure builds in today leading to a sunny and seasonable afternoon across the Northland with a breezy west wind. Increasing clouds tonight into Friday with a chance for rain showers in a weak warm air advection regime ahead of an approaching upper low to the west. Best chance for showers and possible a few thunderstorms will be Thursday afternoon as another cold front moves in from the west with very good large-scale lift from the approaching mid-level trough axis. Highs today in the low 70s, a few degrees warmer along the Lake Superior shoreline in the Twin Ports and along the north shore due to downslope effects. Highs Friday a bit warmer ahead of the cold front in the low to mid 70s.
Morning KXMR sounding shows slightly warmer (mid- level) conditions, 700/500mb temps, +10. An inverted trough located over the Bahamas will be responsible for backing low- level winds to out of the ENE. High pressure ridging, east-west oriented, will remain north of ECFL but will settle across north-central FL over the next 24 hours. High temps will reach the lower 90s across the north interior where more solar heating will occur, holding in the upper 80s elsewhere. Low-level ridging to the north and inverted troughing over the Bahamas will provide for ENE winds across the local coastal waters of ECFL.
Locally freezing temperatures will be possible. A stronger cold front is forecast to arrive this weekend with breezy, dry northerly winds, as well as unsettled and cooler weather. A dry slot on the south side of an upper trough passing through the Inland NW this morning will result in dry conditions. A short wave ridge moves over the area Friday for slightly warmer temperatures under mostly clear skies.
High pressure will be moving into the region through the day as cold front exits to the east. High pressure builds in today leading to a sunny and seasonable afternoon across the Northland with a breezy west wind. Increasing clouds tonight into Friday with a chance for rain showers in a weak warm air advection regime ahead of an approaching upper low to the west. Best chance for showers and possible a few thunderstorms will be Thursday afternoon as another cold front moves in from the west with very good large-scale lift from the approaching mid-level trough axis. Highs today in the low 70s, a few degrees warmer along the Lake Superior shoreline in the Twin Ports and along the north shore due to downslope effects. Highs Friday a bit warmer ahead of the cold front in the low to mid 70s.
Upper level high pressure ridge will remain stretched across the region today with limited moisture. With upper level low over the Rockies retreating north will also allow for a weakening in the pressure gradient and winds not as gusty as the past couple of days. By Thursday night into Friday, a TUTT low will be approaching the Texas coast while at the same time at the surface an inverted trough approaches.
735 AM EDT THU SEP 8 2016 High pressure. Models are in good agreement with handling of upper level ridging and the trough/associated weakening surface front.
1030 AM EDT THU SEP 8 2016 The strong ridge aloft over the MS/OH valleys will keep us much warmer than normal through the end of the week. Muggy air will stick around until a cold front passes this weekend.
Models continue to show isolated/scattered showers/storms will remain possible this afternoon/evening with the highest chances across portions of Northern OK. Later this afternoon, scattered storms should form mainly over northern and western Oklahoma as a trough approaches from the west. A better chance for widespread showers and storms will start Friday afternoon and evening, as a cold front approaches northern Oklahoma.
A repeat of the low clouds and fog tonight is not out of the question but not enough confidence to put into the TAFs yet. Friday looks especially dry until late in the day when a moist back door cold front will enter the northeast.
A weak sfc cold front then exits to the east by the late morning, taking rain chances with it. Even though this feature may mostly miss the DVN CWA, but could still clip the SE corner, moisture is expected to pool ahead of a cold front Friday evening and night.
937 AM PDT THU SEP 8 2016 Onshore flow with a deeper marine layer will bring cooler conditions to the forecast area through Friday.
Aloft, a mid to upper level low spins away in the Gulf of Mexico.
With dewpoint values in the mid 70s and high temperatures forecast to climb into the low to mid 90s, heat index values will approach 100 to 104 degrees across the region. A similar pattern expected again on Friday except for the fact that temperatures may be slightly cooler due to increased cloud cover across the region.
The ridge of high pressure that has brought warm and dry weather to eastern Kentucky the past week or so, will finally loosen its grip on the region. A weak cold front will gradually approach from the northwest, and will displace the ridge enough to allow a few showers and storms to form and make their way into the I-64 corridor by late this afternoon. The ridge should weaken just enough to allow the front to penetrate as far south as the Ohio River. However, the ridge will restrengthen and should begin pushing the cold front back northward by the end of the day on Friday.
Convective allowing models show some scattered development, especially along the Highway 54 corridor. Soils remain dry across the region, however, after coordinating with surrounding offices, decided to hoist a Flash Flood Watch pretty close to the Highway 54 corridor in response to higher rainfall rates and possibility of training nature of storms. Rainfall totals of 2-4 inches can be expected in the watch area, 1-3 inches further south along the Highway 60 corridor with the least amounts across far south central Missouri.
Cooler temperatures are expected today as onshore flow returns to the area.
A cold front currently extends from southeast Minnesota through northern Kansas and into northeast Colorado. Most area will remain dry today as temperatures remain on the hot side with highs in the lower 90s. The cold front will be over extreme northern Missouri tonight with an isolated thunderstorms could sneak into northern sections of the forecast area. Temperatures will remain warm with lows Friday morning in the low to mid 70s. The cold front will not move too much on Friday so there will only be a small chance of thunderstorms over extreme northern sections of the forecast area. Temperatures will remain on the hot side with highs in the lower 90s. The cold front will start to move closer to the forecast area Friday night so there will be a better chance of thunderstorms mainly over portions of northeast Arkansas.