Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER EASTERN MONTANA/WYOMING KEEPS A SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE DAKOTAS. THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE/DEVELOP EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND A MORE POTENT SURGE OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP INTO EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND MOVE INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA BEFORE DAYBREAK. BY THE END OF THE SHORT TERM THE TRANSITION TO MUCH COOLER WEATHER WITH SOME SNOW BEGINS TO BE SEEN. FLOW OVER THE WARM FRONT WAS GENERATING SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FROM MOBRIDGE NORTH TO NEAR MINOT AND NORTH TO THE CANADIAN BORDER. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SWINGS INTO EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA THEN TRACKS NORTHEAST AND SPREADS A LARGE AREA OF THE RAINSHOWERS ACROSS THE EAST HALF OF THE STATE AND ESPECIALLY THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. COOLER AIR WILL BEGIN A RAIN/SNOW CHANGE OVER.
1225 PM MDT SUN MAY 17 2015 AVIATION SECTION UPDATED ELONGATED UPPER LOW FROM WYOMING INTO EASTERN MONTANA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT AS MOISTURE ON ITS WEST SIDE CONTINUES TO AFFECT MUCH OF SOUTHWEST THROUGH NORTHCENTRAL MONTANA. WIDESPREAD RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA, DUE TO MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WRAPPING AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER EASTERN MONTANA. THE HIGHEST ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY REMAIN OVER NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA, ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF A GREAT FALLS TO HAVRE LINE, WHERE ANOTHER 0. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE WESTERN CONUS FOR MONDAY, BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO SOUTHWEST MONTANA. WARMER AIR WILL ALSO MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA, AS HIGHS WARM INTO THE UPPER 40S AND 50S.
623 AM EDT SUN MAY 17 2015 DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE STATE. THE HIGHEST CHANCES WILL BE IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL HIGHLANDS AND MUCH OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE DRIER WEATHER OVER THE REGION TODAY. NOTABLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE SOMEWHAT DRIER WEATHER TODAY.
313 AM CDT Sun May 17 2015 Early this morning, the upper level trough, that brought widespread thunderstorms across the CWA this evening, was located across south central NE and was lifting northeast. Today, The upper trough will continue to track north-northeast into eastern ND by 00Z MON. Afternoon highs will reach the lower 80s. Tonight, a cold front will push southward across the CWA. The low-levels of the atmosphere look too dry for any pre or post frontal showers to develop.
138 AM EDT SUN MAY 17 2015 DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT.
Highs will be in the low to mid 80s, with overnight lows in the 60s.
WE REMAIN IN A REGIME OF DEEP MOISTURE FLOWING AROUND THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED TO OUR SOUTHEAST. THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN ON MONDAY AND A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE ENTERING KY FROM THE NW AT THE END OF THE DAY. WITH A BIT OF A BOOST FROM THE BREAKDOWN OF THE RIDGE AND THE PRESENCE OF THE FRONT.
SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LIFTING NORTH-NORTHEAST OUT OF THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY. MEANWHILE, WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES. AS FOR TEMPERATURES, LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED TO THE GENERAL AIR MASS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF KANSAS. HOWEVER, MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR HIGHER TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS REACHING THE UPPER 70S(F) TO THE LOWER 80S(F). LOWS WILL BE BACK DOWN INTO THE 50S(F) TONIGHT WITH A FEW MID TO UPPER 40S(F) POSSIBLE IN WEST CENTRAL AND CENTRAL KANSAS AS A COLD FRONT BEGINS TO PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER S/WV TROUGH IN THE SOUTHERN BRANCH, THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AIR SHOULD BE MOVING BACK NORTHWEST INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
AS A NEARLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PIVOTS ACROSS WESTERN/NORTHERN MINNES0TA. WHICH SHOULD YIELD ADEQUATE SCATTERING OF THE LOW CLOUDS TO TRIGGER SUFFICIENT ATMOSPHERIC DESTABILIZATION IN THE WARM SECTOR OVER OUR AREA. EVEN THOUGH THE WARM FRONT IS NORTH OF THE AREA. WITH THE HIGHEST THREAT AREA BEING LOCATIONS ALONG/EAST OF THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR.
THE PERSISTENT PATTER OF MID LEVEL TROUGHING IN THE WEST AND RIDGING IN THE EAST WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TODAY. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD TONIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH UPPER TROUGHING DEEPENING OVER THE AREA. A FAIRLY STRONG SHORT WAVE WILL DRIVE THE COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY.
617 AM EDT SUN MAY 17 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN WARMTH AND HUMIDITY.
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH 15Z NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT WHICH WILL BEGIN MOVING NORTH AFTER SUNRISE. INSTABILITY DOES NOT LOOK TO BE AS GREAT AS IT DID A FEW DAYS AGO BUT THERE WILL BE CONSIDERABLE SHEAR ALONG THE NORTHWARD MOVING WARM FRONT AND WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS ARE LOW ENOUGH FOR LARGE HAIL. COOLER AND LESS HUMID WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER IN THE FAR NORTH IN THE AFTERNOON.
SOME WEAKENING OF THE HIGH WILL TAKE PLACE BY LATE TONIGHT WITH SFC WINDS SLACKENING AND VEERING SLIGHTLY AS A RESULT. ANOTHER DAY OF RELATIVELY LOWER RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE REGION AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SLOWLY NUDGES SOUTHWARD AND LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS GRADUALLY DROPS SOUTH INTO NORTH FLORIDA. BETWEEN THE DRIER AIR AND SUPPRESSION FROM RIDGE ALOFT. WITH THE RIDGE AXIS DROPPING FURTHER SOUTH OVERNIGHT AND FLOW SHIFTING. WETTER PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE AS MID LEVEL RIDGE BREAKS DOWN MID WEEK AND WEAK TROUGHING DEVELOPS ACROSS THE EASTERN US THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE PRESENCE OF THE TROUGH. AND INCREASE IN MOISTURE WITH THE FRONT ALONG WITH WEAK TROUGHING WILL KEEP SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.
A RETURN TO MORE INSTABILITY RETURNS MONDAY AS WARMER LOW LAYER AIR MOVES IN ON SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE AREA WILL BE UNDER A BROAD TROUGH PATTERN WITH A SERIES OF UPPER LOWS MOVING SOUTH ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST THEN INLAND NEAR CALIFORNIA.
339 AM EDT SUN MAY 17 2015 WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST TODAY AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
312 AM EDT SUN MAY 17 2015 DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT.
305 AM PDT SUN MAY 17 2015 A SERIES OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS THIS WEEK WILL MAINTAIN BELOW AVERAGE INLAND TEMPERATURES.
WE REMAIN IN A REGIME OF DEEP MOISTURE FLOWING AROUND THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED TO OUR SOUTHEAST. THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN ON MONDAY AND A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE ENTERING KY FROM THE NW AT THE END OF THE DAY. WITH A BIT OF A BOOST FROM THE BREAKDOWN OF THE RIDGE AND THE PRESENCE OF THE FRONT. UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT HAS BEEN PLAGUING THE PLAINS WITH MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL EJECT NE INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO FLATTEN THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE SE US. THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL HELP CONTINUE SWINGING A COLD FRONT CLOSER TO THE OHIO VALLEY AND WILL BE THE FOCAL POINT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY NIGHT.
BRINING A COLD FRONT ALONG WITH IT. AHEAD OF THE LOW AND COLD FRONT. AS THE LOW PASSES BY THIS EVENING CONDITIONS WILL RAPIDLY IMPROVE.
High pressure at the surface and rising heights aloft will keep the region dry with slowly moderating temperatures through the period. Any notable weather impacts should hold off until late week when the chance of thunderstorms returns with the approach of a cold front.
348 AM EDT SUN SEP 13 2015 DEEP UPR TROUGH CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE MUCH OF THE CONUS EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. BRINGING MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR TO NEARLY ALL OF NORTH/CENTRAL GA. UPR TROUGH AXIS WILL PUSH EAST OF THE STATE TODAY. THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE SRN APPALACHIANS WITH UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES BOTTOMING OUT IN THE 40S AND LWR 50S BY DAYBREAK MONDAY. A WEAK UPR RIDGE WILL APPROACH THE AREA AS THE LOW LVL FLOW SHIFTS AROUND TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS/INCREASE IN HUMIDITY BUT ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL CONTINUE.
129 AM EDT SUN SEP 13 2015 A LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE NORTHEAST FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TONIGHT AND BRING RAIN TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY.
OTHERWISE FOR TODAY AND FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK THE STORY WILL BE THE WARMER TEMPS AND GUSTY SOUTH WINDS.
Upper Low centers off the coast forecast to consolidate/phase on Sun with main circulation forming farther west where wrn most center was located today.
439 AM CDT SUN SEP 13 2015 DEEP TROF NOTED OVER THE ERN CONUS ON RECENT UA ANALYSIS WITH MUCH DRIER AIR SPILLING ACRS THE REGION ON NWLY FLOW ALOFT PER WV IMAGERY. 1020 MB HIGH OVER THE MIDWEST WAS RIDGING SOUTH OVER THE NW GULF COAST WITH LT NLY WINDS ACRS THE AREA. MILD AFTNS WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S AND COOL NIGHTS WITH LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 50S TO NR 60 CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY INTO MONDAY.
THE WEEK AHEAD WILL BRING MODEST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH A RIDGE AXIS CENTERED JUST TO OUR SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST.
LOWS WILL BE AS LOW AS THE LOW 40S. RADAR WAS SHOWING A FEW SHOWERS IN THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY TRACKING SOUTHEAST.
MOISTURE AND REMNANT UPPER LEVEL ENERGY FROM THE REMAINS OF HURRICANE LINDA CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN CA WILL QUICKLY BE PICKED UP IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW THAT DEVELOPS BETWEEN A WEST COAST UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND THE RETREATING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER NM SUNDAY NIGHT.
THE UPPER TROUGH FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TO THE EASTERN OHIO RIVER VALLEY MOVES OFF TO THE EAST TODAY AS A WEAK RIDGE BUILDS INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN TONIGHT.
346 AM CDT SUN SEP 13 2015 FLATTENED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WAS OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH A FAIRLY STRONG ZONAL UPPER JET MOVING INTO CENTRAL CANADA. RIDGE MOVES TO THE EASTERN CONUS BY 84 HOURS. COUPLE OF SHORT WAVES OVER THE GULF OF AK CARVE OUT AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN US THIS PERIOD WHICH BUILD RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS.
DEVELOPMENT OF A LEESIDE SFC TROF OF LOW PRESSURE COUPLED WITH SOME MOISTURE AND ADEQUATE ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY MAY RESULT IN ISOLD SHOWERS AND TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. WITH A MEANDERING LEESIDE TROF OF LOW PRESSURE REFLECTED AT THE SFC.
TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S UNDER SUNNY SKIES. WITH AN AMPLIFIED H5/H7 RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY TODAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S.
THIS HIGH WILL PROVIDE. AS THE HIGH SLOWLY DRIFTS EASTWARD. UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER OHIO WILL LIFT NE INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TODAY. UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THIS RIDGE TONIGHT. TONIGHTS LOWS TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER/MID 40S NE TO THE MID/UPR 40S SW. HIGHS ON MONDAY ARE EXPECT TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S NE TO THE MID 70S SW.
317 AM CDT SUN SEP 13 2015 THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS WAS INDICATING A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUING TO REIGN ACRS MUCH OF THE MID CONUS INCLUDING THE LOCAL CWA. THE DEEP L/W TROF ACRS THE GRT LKS AND OH RVR VALLEY SHOWING SIGNS OF MIGRATING EASTWARD WHICH WILL ALLOW THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS CURRENTLY ACRS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE NORTHWESTERN GRT LKS TO NUDGE IT/S WAY EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ACRS THE REGION TODAY. THE RIDGE COMPLEXES THROUGH THE COLUMN WILL PROVIDE FAIR WX TODAY. MOST OF THE CWA WILL EXPERIENCE LATE AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER 70S. ALLOWING AMBIENT TEMPS TO COOL DOWN INTO THE LOWER 50S IN MANY LOCATIONS TAKING INTO ACCOUNT STILL DRY SFC DPT FIELDS.
645 AM EDT SUN SEP 13 2015 UPPER LOW SLIDES EAST TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE FOR MUCH OF NEXT WORK WEEK. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO WORK ITS WAY THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES.
608 AM EDT SUN SEP 13 2015 A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE CENTERED IN THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TODAY.
The main upper low and colder air aloft should move completely east of the WFO PAH forecast area by 03z (10 pm CDT). With the surface pressure gradient relaxing with the fast approach of surface and upper level ridge, the thermal profile within the planetary boundary layer will stratify quickly enough to cause sharp drops in temperatures this evening and overnight.
DRY AND GRADUALLY WARMER CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. /TODAY/ AN UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO EXIT THE AREA TODAY.
436 AM EDT SUN SEP 13 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST TODAY AND SLOWLY CROSSING THE REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL DRIFT NORTHWARD INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES DURING THE DAY TODAY. MAIN CHALLENGE THIS TERM WILL BE THE UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS THE REGION W/RAIN AND POSSIBLE CONVECTION. THE UPPER LOW SWINGS TO THE E MONDAY EVENING W/SHOWERS AND THEN RAIN ACTIVITY SHOULD COME TO AN END AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE BEST MID LEVEL FORCING PUSHES AWAY FROM THE REGION.
RATHER SHARP UPPER TROUGH OVER EASTERN U. LOOKS LIKE A DRY WORK WEEK COMING UP AS UPPER TROUGH OVER EASTERN U. GETS REPLACED BY A BUILDING SOUTHERN PLAINS UPPER RIDGE INTO OUR AREA AS WE GO THROUGH THE WEEK WHILE AT THE SURFACE A RATHER STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS OUR AREA.
WE CAN EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES EARLY ON GRADUALLY GIVING WAY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES BY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE CLOUDS AND RAIN FINALLY PULLS OFF TO OUR EAST. TODAYS HIGHS ARE ON TRACK TO MAX OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 60S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. LOWS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA ARE FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S AS SKIES CLEAR OFF AND WINDS GO CALM. A GRADUAL WARM UP IS ON TAP AS A RIDGE OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION. HIGHS ON MONDAY SHOULD BE ABLE TO TOP OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 70S AS DAY TIME HEATING IS MAXIMIZED. YIELDING WARMER TEMPS. A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEAMPLIFY AS IT HEADS EAST IN THE FLOW ALOFT LATE IN THE WEEK.
Dew points have already dropped into the upper 50s with temps in the lower to mid 60s across our northwest zones as of 06z. Much drier air will overspread the entire region by daybreak or shortly thereafter behind the existing cold front.
BUT ONLY GRADUALLY WIND THE POPS DOWN FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER SO CLOSE BY. WILL ASSESS THE LOWS A BIT LATER THIS EVENING AS WELL. DEEP TROUGH REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON WELL ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE AREA. ACTIVITY WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH BY LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO WORK IN FROM THE WEST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAKE EVEN MORE PROGRESS ON SUNDAY WITH SKIES CLEARING. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO TAKE HOLD OF THE REGION TO START OFF THE EXTENDED. THIS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL EXPAND AND STRENGTHEN THROUGH MID WEEK. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL HAVE CLIMBED BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S.
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER MIZZOU EXTENDS RIDGING NNE-WARD INTO EASTERN WI. THE LAST VESTIGES OF LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW EAST OF THE RIDGE IS SUPPORTING SOME STRATOCU IN EASTERN UPPER AND NE LOWER MI. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT OVER LOWER MI TODAY.
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN THIS AFTERNOON FEATURES A RATHER ANOMALOUS TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS WITH UPSTREAM RIDGING OVER THE WEST- CENTRAL UNITED STATES. THE COLD CORE ALOFT FROM THE EXPANSIVE UPPER TROUGH HAS LED TO SHOWER AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. WITH SURFACE RIDGING NUDGING INTO AREAS WEST OF I-65. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE CHILLY AS SURFACE RIDGING ESTABLISHES ITSELF MORE OVER THE REGION. THE URBAN HEAT ISLAND OF METRO LOUISVILLE WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE LOWER 50S.
FOLLOWED BY SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF A LONG WAVE TROUGH EXTENDING ALONG THE WESTERN CONUS MONDAY. A TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE REGION TODAY. THE TROUGH SEEMS TO STALL OUT LATE TONIGHT WHILE THE PRESSURE PATTERN REORGANIZES MONDAY WITH A CLOSED LOW ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND A STATIONARY/WARM FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA.
THIS LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL INCREASE THE INSTABILITY FOR AREAS JUST TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE ENOUGH FOR A POSSIBLE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCE ACROSS NW KANSAS ALONG A LEE TROUGH. A WARMER ELEVATED MIXED LAYER ON WED AFTERNOON. THE LEE TROUGH OVER NW KS WILL VENTURE FURTHER EAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA FOR THIS TIME FRAME.
311 AM CDT SUN SEP 13 2015 VERY PLEASANT CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL EARLY IN THE FORECAST PERIOD ACROSS THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE REGION YESTERDAY AND IS NOW PUSHING INTO THE CENTRAL GULF. HIGHS TODAY WILL MAINLY BE IN THE LOWER 80S. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL WANE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE COURSE OF TODAY AND TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE ON MONDAY AS THE DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS IS REPLACED BY RIDGING ALOFT.
TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT 08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MO RIVER VALLEY AND LEE TROUGH FROM EASTERN MT INTO CENTRAL WY. WATER VAPOUR LATE SHOW SHOWED VERY DRY AIR OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH UPPER RIDGE OVERHEAD. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL PROGRESS SLOWLY EASTWARD AND FLATTEN SOME IN RESPONSE TO UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE WEST COAST. LEE TROUGH WILL BECOME PERSISTENT FEATURE AS IT PUSHES SLOWLY EAST AND A COUPLE OF WEAK LOWS DEVELOP AND MOVE ALONG IT. THERMAL RIDGE REMAINS STAUNCHLY IN PLACE WITH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 90S FOR MANY LOCATIONS. MLCIN SHOULD SUPPRESS ANY POTENTIAL CONVECTION AHEAD OF LEE TROUGH WHERE TD/S GET INTO THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.
ELSEWHERE SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WERE OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION WHILE A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO DOMINATE OUR AREA WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS. THE LATEST DATA SUGGESTS THAT THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR BLDU APPEARS TO BE AT OR INVOF KPDT TERMINAL.
343 AM CDT SUN SEP 13 2015 COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPS AND LOW DAYTIME HUMIDITY TO PREVAIL OVER THE MIDSOUTH TODAY AND MONDAY.
THE LATEST KBRO RADAR IMAGERY DOES SHOW SOME PATCHY CONV FIRING MAINLY OVER THE LOWER TX COASTLINE MOVING TO THE SOUTHWEST. AND LET TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE LOWER 70S AREAWIDE.
309 AM EDT SUN SEP 13 2015 UPPER LOW SLIDES EAST TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE FOR MUCH OF NEXT WORK WEEK. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO WORK ITS WAY THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN THROUGH MOST OF THE WORK WEEK.
327 AM EDT SUN SEP 13 2015 UPPER LOW SLIDES EAST TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE FOR MUCH OF NEXT WORK WEEK. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO WORK ITS WAY THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES.
THEY ARE DISSIPATING AS THEY MOVE FURTHER SOUTH INTO LOWER LEVEL RIDGING AND A DRIER AIRMASS OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. A DRY LOWER LEVEL RIDGE SLOWLY GIVES WAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES LOWERS SURFACE PRESSURES IN THE PLAINS ALLOWING LOWER LEVEL FLOW OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO TO DEVELOP.
234 AM EDT SUN SEP 13 2015 A LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE NORTHEAST FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TONIGHT AND BRING RAIN TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY.
EXPECT HIGHS TO BE SIMILAR OR JUST A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN YESTERDAY AS THE CORE OF THE COLDEST H85 TEMPS REMAINS OVER THE REGION. WILL GO WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 70S, WITH A FEW OF THE URBAN AREAS UP NEAR THE 73-74 RANGE. EXPECT MOST AREAS TO BE IN THE MID 40S, WITH THE WARMER METRO DROPPING TO THE UPPER 40S. UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA BY MONDAY WITH INCREASING HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES, ALONG WITH A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW.
With the warm/moist air working its way back into the area, expect a gradual warming trend through the next few days, with mid 70s expected for Sunday and 80s for virtually all of the upcoming work week, with each day getting a few degrees warmer than the previous.
201 AM EDT SUN SEP 13 2015 UPPER LOW SETTLING INTO AREA.
235 AM PDT SUN SEP 13 2015 A dry cold front will bring breezy conditions along with cooler temperatures today. A dry cold front will usher in windy conditions and cooler temperatures but relative humidity will not improve much.
THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WATER VAPOR SHOWS UPPER RIDGE BUILDING THROUGH THE NRN ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY WITH UPPER RIDGE IN CONTROL OF OUR WX. THERMAL RIDGE PASSING OVERHEAD SUNDAY WILL LEAD TO HOT TEMPS IN THE 90S FOR MOST PLAINS LOCATIONS.
OTHERWISE FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS THE MIDWEST. OTRWS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVG ACROSS THE AREA WILL PROVIDE FAIR WX IN OUR AREA DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR AN INCREASING SWLY GRADIENT BUT THERE STILL SHOULD BE AT LEAST A PERIOD OF DECOUPLING AND RATHER STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING OVER MOST OF THE AREA. AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROF LIFTS OUT OF THE NORTHEAST AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WITH HEIGHT THEN BUILDING INTO MIDWEEK. BY THU A 5H WAVE TROF TRAVERSES THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE GRTLKS REGION WHILE A WEAK SURFACE FRONT PUSHES INTO THE SOUTHERN GRTLKS. AS A SECOND 5H WAVE TROF MOVES TOWARD THE GRTLKS.
442 AM EDT SUN SEP 13 2015 A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SOUTH FROM NORTHERN NEW YORK. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE MID 80S IN THE LOWER KEYS TO NEAR 80 IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS THANKS TO THE FEW ROUNDS OF STORMS MOVING THROUGH. THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL LINGER ACROSS CENTRAL AND DISSIPATE ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA TODAY AND TONIGHT. A HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL UNITED STATES WILL SWING TOWARD TENNESSEE TONIGHT AND ANCHOR OVER NORTH CAROLINA.
223 AM EDT SUN SEP 13 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK STATE TODAY AS ANOTHER STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS NEAR CAPE COD AND TRACKS INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. SOME LINGERING LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY IN NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY PUSHES EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS HIGH WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH DRY WEATHER AND A RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
623 AM EDT SUN SEP 13 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST TODAY AND SLOWLY CROSSING THE REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL DRIFT NORTHWARD INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES DURING THE DAY TODAY. MAIN CHALLENGE THIS TERM WILL BE THE UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS THE REGION W/RAIN AND POSSIBLE CONVECTION. THE UPPER LOW SWINGS TO THE E MONDAY EVENING W/SHOWERS AND THEN RAIN ACTIVITY SHOULD COME TO AN END AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE BEST MID LEVEL FORCING PUSHES AWAY FROM THE REGION.
330 AM CDT SUN SEP 13 2015 UPPER RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WITH TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES MOVING EAST. CIRRUS HAVE BEEN ASSOCIATED WITH THE INCOMING UPPER RIDGE.
THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO PULL OUT MONDAY ALLOWING DRIER AND WARMER AIR TO RETURN FOR MID WEEK.
1253 AM CDT SUN SEP 13 2015 DRY AIR IS SETTLING OVER THE AREA BEHIND A COLD FRONT. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY.
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TURNING OUT FLOW FROM WNW TO SW OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS.
WINDS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS ARE A BIT MORE TRICKY DUE TO A COASTAL TROF DRAPED ALONG THE MEXICAN COASTLINE. MODELS KEEP A WEAK TO MOD EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA AND COASTAL WATERS THROUIGH MONDAY WITH THE COASTAL TROF PERSISTING TO THE S OF THE AREA. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER EACH DAY.
327 AM CDT SUN SEP 13 2015 SOUTHERLY FLOW PREVAILS THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES AND SPORADIC CHANCES FOR RAIN. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS TO OUR EAST TODAY. MIXING TO ABOUT 900 MB COMBINED WITH WARMER TEMPS ALOFT SHOULD YIELD HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80. SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS ALOFT SHOULD RESULT IN ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS IN THE MID 80S.
ONSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE TODAY FOR CLOUDY AND COOLER CONDITIONS. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE INLAND ON MONDAY FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.