Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
120 AM EDT FRI OCT 23 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH OVERNIGHT. FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
240 AM EDT FRI OCT 23 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TODAY AND TONIGHT AND CREST OVER THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING.
455 AM EDT FRI OCT 23 2015 HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED JUTS NORTH OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL PUSH A DRY.
330 AM EDT FRI OCT 23 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING CLEAR SKIES AND COOLER TEMPERATURES TO NY AND PA TODAY.
FAIR AND WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY AND SATURDAY.
THE NEW MODEL ASSESSMENTS FACTOR IN A SLIGHTLY FASTER PATTERN OF THE MORE INFLUENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE. HAVE SHIFTED THE HIGHEST STORM TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS SOUTHWARD AS INCREASED CYCLOGENESIS IS DEPICTED OVER SOUTH TX TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. WEST OF THIS HIGHER THREAT AREA. THIS IS LARGELY DUE TO THE TRANSLATION OF THE MID LEVEL TROPICAL CYCLONE TO NEAR THE SURFACE. A NEW THREAT ALSO NEEDS TO BE CONSIDERED AS THE ADDED LOW LEVEL SHEAR FROM A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS COULD LEAD TO THE THREAT FOR TORNADOES. ENDING OVER EASTERN COUNTIES LATE AS THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER TRACKS GENERALLY TOWARD HOUSTON.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE STEADY WARM AIR/MOISTURE ADVECTION IN THE INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AS THE DEEP 500 MB TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO GRADUALLY FULLY MOISTEN/SATURATE THE COLUMN. MILD AIR AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH TEMPS UP INTO AT LEAST THE LOW 60S MOST PLACES.
AS THE LOW BEGINS TO STALL NEAR THE NW GULF COAST.
627 AM EDT FRI OCT 23 2015 AVIATION HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER EASTERN ONTARIO WILL SHIFT EAST TODAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES WILL TRACK NORTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION ON SATURDAY IS SOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER IT IS BATTLING A DRY AIRMASS IN THE LOW LEVELS. THE HIGH RES EURO WOULD SUPPORT SHOWERS MOVING IN BEFORE 00Z. HOWEVER ALL MODELS STILL SHOW THE LOW LEVEL JET ARRIVING TONIGHT WITH A HIGH PWAT AIRMASS ARRIVING. THE UPPER FLOW SHOULD BE WNW WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH.
203 AM EDT FRI OCT 23 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO AND THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH FRIDAY.
MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WERE THICKENING FROM THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS. PROGS INDICATE H850 TROUGH AND FGEN SLIDES DROPS IN ALONG WITH A LFQ REGION OF AN UPPER JET. WARM START SATURDAY MORNING SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO EXCEED NORMAL HIGHS FOR AT LEAST EASTERN WISCONSIN BEFORE THE GUSTY NORTHWEST IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT PUT A HALT TO THE WARMING.
410 AM CDT FRI OCT 23 2015 BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE CWA THIS AM. A RIDGE SETTLES OVERHEAD TONIGHT.
Otherwise, deep layer ridging will persist over the area again today, likely leading to mostly sunny skies and warm temperatures once any morning fog and stratus dissipates. The model forecast 850mb temperatures are close to, or slightly warmer than, what was observed yesterday evening at 00Z. Therefore, we used yesterday's highs as a general template for the highs today, with mid-upper 80s likely.
420 AM EDT FRI OCT 23 2015 DRY AND SUNNY CONDITIONS TODAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ON SATURDAY AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION. SUNNY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE TRANSITIONS ACROSS THE REGION.
A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN MOSTLY DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA THROUGH FRIDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN LATE THIS WEEKEND. NORTHEASTERLY OVERNIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW SOME OF THE POST TROUGH DRY AIR TO MIX INTO THE MARINE BOUNDARY LAYER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHICH WILL RESULT IN LESS WIDESPREAD COASTAL CLOUDINESS FRIDAY MORNING AS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY MORNING. INTERIOR AREAS WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AS HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE NEXT APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BLOW OVER THE NORTH SIDE OF THE SHORT WAVE RIDGE CURRENTLY IN PLACE OVER THE COAST.
AS REMNANTS OF PATRICIA BEGIN BEING PICKED UP BY UPPER TROUGH.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA FRIDAY AND EARLY SATURDAY.
636 AM EDT FRI OCT 23 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
420 AM MDT FRI OCT 23 2015 UPPER LOW SWIRLING OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. SNOWFALL IN THE HIGH MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT HAS ONLY BEEN A COUPLE OF INCHES. BLOCKING NEAR THE MOUNTAINS AND LESS OF A GRADIENT FURTHER WEST SHOULD RESULT IN LIGHTER WINDS AROUND DENVER AND IN MOST MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS. BUT THIS MAY BE LIMITED TO THE RIDGES AND SOUTHERLY FAVORED DRAINAGE SPOTS LIKE THE AREAS EAST AND SOUTH OF DENVER. EXPECTING LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S DEPENDING ON ELEVATION AND DRAINAGE WINDS. THOUGH ONLY EXPECTING THE COLDEST SPOTS TO ACTUALLY GET AIR TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING. A RELATIVELY FLAT RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BE OVER COLORADO. A WEAK AND DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE. IT WILL BE WARMER WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.
1230 AM CDT FRI OCT 23 2015 FOR 06Z TAFS /ISSUED 857 PM CDT THU OCT 22 2015/ ANOTHER QUIET/DRY NIGHT WITH TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE LOW/MID 50S.
PATCHY FREEZING FOG IS POSSIBLE IN THE VALLEYS THIS MORNING.
629 AM EDT FRI OCT 23 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING CLEAR SKIES AND COOLER TEMPERATURES TO NY AND PA TODAY.
527 AM EDT FRI OCT 23 2015 HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED JUTS NORTH OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL PUSH A DRY.
ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE A MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IS GRADUALLY MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN UPPER LOW CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER COLORADO. ABOVE AVERAGE MOISTURE EXPECTED TO ADVECT NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THIS LOW WHICH WILL RESULT IN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES 2 TO 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. THE UPPER LOW WHICH TRANSITIONS INTO A SHARP TROUGH AXIS LOOKS AMPLE TO PRODUCE THE DYNAMICS NECESSARY FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. TEMPERATURES WILL DIP TO NEAR-FREEZING ACROSS THE TIP OF THE ARROWHEAD BUT OTHERWISE IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S. AREAS OF FOG OVER THE NORTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR AND PARTS OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN IN WAKE OF THE LOW AND RAINFALL. BUT NOT ENOUGH TO KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING OFF INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S.
259 AM EDT FRI OCT 23 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THROUGH SATURDAY.
646 AM EDT FRI OCT 23 2015 HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS ONTARIO WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE THE REGION WITH DRY CONDITIONS TODAY. THIS CHANGES TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST BRINGS RAIN CHANCES INTO THE FORECAST. THE INITIAL ROUND OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT/THETA-E ADVECTION ACCOMPANYING THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE EXITING ERN PORTION OF THE CWA AROUND DAYBREAK.
1259 AM CDT FRI OCT 23 2015 A LARGE SCALE STORM SYSTEM /UPPER LOW/ THAT WAS CURRENTLY OVER COLORADO EARLY THIS AFTN.
329 AM CDT FRI OCT 23 2015 Moisture channel imagery shows upper low in western NE and the models pretty consistent in bringing it to the east into southwest MN/northwest IA by evening. Moisture advection in difluent zone ahead of the low had brings significant rain from MO into IL this morning.
PERSISTENT RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE TODAY AND TONIGHT.
207 AM EDT FRI OCT 23 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING CLEAR SKIES AND COOLER TEMPERATURES TO NY AND PA TODAY.
100 AM CDT FRI OCT 23 2015 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A RATHER EXPANSIVE UPPER LOW TRACKING NORTHEAST ACROSS COLORADO. THERE CONTINUES TO BE GOOD MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SHIFT INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. WITH A SOUTHWARD EXTENDING COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO HAVE MOVED THROUGH THE CWA BY EVENING.
135 AM EDT FRI OCT 23 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND PROVIDE A MOSTLY SUNNY BUT COOL DAY ON FRIDAY.
348 AM MDT FRI OCT 23 2015 CURRENT WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS THE PACIFIC UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR THE WYOMING/NEBRASKA BORDER AT THIS HOUR. THE LOW HAS STALLED OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. WHICH HAS ALLOWED LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW TO CONTINUE OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND THE HIGH PLAINS EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SNOWY RANGE DID PRETTY GOOD WITH SNOWFALL. IF YOU GO BELOW 10000 FEET SNOW HAS HAD TROUBLE ACCUMULATING DUE TO THE WARMER TEMPERATURES. WARMEST OVER THE HIGH PLAINS.
346 AM CDT FRI OCT 23 2015 MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE CENTERED AROUND THE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EXPECTED TODAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST. DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS MORNING WILL LIFT TO THE NE TODAY AND PHASE WITH A MUCH BROADER LONG-WAVE TROUGH OVER NRN CANADA. PLENTY OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE COMBINED WITH LARGE-SCALE LIFT FROM THE UPPER WAVE AND THE PASSAGE OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL ALL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT AND SUSTAINABILITY OF RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE NEXT 18 TO 24 HOURS. BUT DIMINISH IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE THROUGH THE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN. INTO THE LOWER 40S.
NO WEATHER CONCERNS WITH HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING ANCHORED ACROSS THROUGH SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION FOR ANOTHER DAY OF LIGHT WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY.
628 AM EDT FRI OCT 23 2015 COOLER AIR MOVES IN ON GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS TODAY. AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. THE HIGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
A COMPLEX AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE RESIDES ALOFT THROUGH THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS. THE NEAR TERM WILL HAVE A SLOW DECREASE IN WINDS THROUGH EARLY NEXTWEEK DUE TO THE RIDGE MENTIONED ABOVE. WILL KEEP DIME POPS THROUGH THE FRIDAY NIGHT DUE TO THE RIDGING ALOFT SUPPRESSING ANY LARGE SCALE LIFTING.
344 AM CDT FRI OCT 23 2015 THE COMBINATION OF THE UPPER LOW ACROSS WRN NEB AND A PACIFIC COLD FRONT MOVING EAST IN THE SAME AREA HAS UNEXPECTEDLY SPAWNED A COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. ALSO ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AS IT MOVES INTO THE NRN PLAINS. PACIFIC HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BE LOCATED ACROSS WRN NEB WITH CLEAR SKIES. DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THIS WEEKEND AND INTO THE COMING WORK WEEK AS UPPER RIDGING AMPLIFIES OVER THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST AND BUILDS EAST TOWARD THE HIGH PLAINS. TO SLIGHTLY NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS IN ADVANCE OF THE UPPER RIDGING.
325 AM CDT FRI OCT 23 2015 The upper level low over the Central Rockies early this morning will open and fill as its remnant energy shifts northeast into the Northern Plains over the next 24 hours. A steady plume of deep atmospheric moisture oriented longitudinally ahead of this low will shift east into the Mississippi Valley and become more diagonally oriented from southwest to northeast during this time. Better coverage of showers and perhaps even a few thunderstorms will develop across the region on Saturday as moisture and lift increase ahead of a cold front trailing from low pressure over southeastern Canada. The primary band of precipitation will shift into western Kentucky Saturday night as the cold front makes its southeastward passage through the area.
LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW THE LOW CLOUDS/FOG INCREASING ACROSS SE GA AND INTERIOR NE FL. MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. WITH WEAK COASTAL TROUGHING CONTINUING OFFSHORE. WITH THE STRONG MID LEVEL RIDGE. PRECIP WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT AS THE RIDGE MOVES NEARLY OVERHEAD. VERTICALLY STACKED RIDGING WILL PREVAIL RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS. WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER/MID 80S FOR MOST AREAS.
346 AM CDT FRI OCT 23 2015 BROAD UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS TODAY BEFORE BEING CAPTURED BY THE WESTERLY AND TAKEN EASTWARD THIS WEEKEND. EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO HAVE ENDED BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE PUSHING IN BEHIND.
1120 PM MDT THU OCT 22 2015 ROTATION OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS SWINGING THE RAIN BAND NORTHWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH A DRY SLOT CURRENTLY WORKING INTO SWRN AND SC SD. THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS HAS STRONG UPPER LOW LIFTING NORTH THROUGH COLORADO WITH WIDESPREAD PRECIP BAND LIFTING THROUGH NEBRASKA AND SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA. ELONGATED TROF OF LOW PRESSURE STRETCHES FROM SOUTHERN COLORADO TO SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN. ALONG WITH THE TROF. SO NO APPRECIABLE SNOW FALL IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE BLACK HILLS.
351 AM CDT FRI OCT 23 2015 UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESENTLY SITUATED OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTH DAKOTA AND NEBRASKA VERY EARLY THIS MORNING. THOUGH A LITTLE WARMER THROUGH THE LOWER MO RIVER VALLEY WHERE HIGHS WILL REACH THE MID 60S. WITH COOLEST READINGS IN THE EAST WHERE THE RIDGE AXIS LINGERS LONGEST.
A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA THROUGH FRIDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN LATE THIS WEEKEND. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST WILL MAINTAIN DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS OVER NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA THROUGH SATURDAY. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL SPREAD OVER THE REGION TODAY AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC.
Afternoon highs under sunny skies will be in the mid 60s, a little cooler than seasonal norms. Morning lows tomorrow under clear skies will mostly be in the upper 30s to the lower 40s, also a little cooler than seasonal norms.
310 PM CDT THU MAR 24 2016 WITH GUIDANCE SLOWING DOWN EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF PRECIP TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING DECIDED TO REMOVE ANY MENTION OF FREEZING RAIN. KEEPING LOWS JUST ABOVE FREEZING. SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL AID IN MIXING. BEHIND THE LOW CAA WILL MIX DOWN NORTHERLY WINDS OF 20 TO 35 KTS.
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST. SECONDARY BATCH OF CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS WESTERN/NORTHERN AREAS AS THE UPPER LOW EXITS TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE STATE. FOG PRODUCT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF LOW-END VFR OR MVFR CIGS MOVING IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY PUSHING THROUGH THE STATE. TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM IS A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE STATE THIS MORNING. REGARDING FREEZING TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. EXPECT A FEW LOCATIONS IN THE NORTH TO SEE THE FREEZING MARK TONIGHT BENEATH CLEARING SKIES AND SLACKENING WINDS. BUT WIDESPREAD FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED.
350 PM CDT THU MAR 24 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT. AND DRY AIR WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP AGAIN TO NEAR FREEZING IN SOME PARTS OF OUR FORECAST AREA. WINDS WILL PICK UP QUICKLY TOMORROW AS THE HIGH MOVES FARTHER EAST. AND LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS.
Guidance also wraps around enuf warm air around the low at low levels that suggests any precip will remain liquid rather than snow. Mdls depict a couple of rounds of SHRA until chances increase Sat night thru Sun as the upper trof approaches the area and the fnt sags swd into the area. Tilly A deepening low pressure system is pulling away from the region with veering west to northwest winds in its wake and extensive stratus.
Dry line and cold front will continue to surge eastward during the remainder of tonight and into today as the main upper level wave opens up and lifts northeastward. Temperatures will begin to drop into the 30s this evening and at or below freezing after midnight tonight. The northwest flow today and tonight will gradually become more westerly to southwesterly on Friday as an upper level jet dives southeast into the Rockies and begins to carve out a trough.
SHOWERS DIMINISH AFTER 00Z BUT A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH FROM CANADA BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAIN AND SNOW WITH IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS EXPECTED.
A LARGE MCS HAS FORMED OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF A TROUGH MOVING INTO THE DEEP SOUTH. AS THE PARENT LONGWAVE TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE SOUTHEAST.
1239 PM CDT THU MAR 24 2016 UPPER CLOSED LOW OVER NORTHERN MISSOURI SOUTHERN IOWA AS SEEN IN IR SATELLITE IMAGE. UPPER CLOSED LOW MOVING OUT OF GULF OF ALASKA INTO JUNEAU AND THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. RIDGING ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD AHEAD OF SYSTEM MOVING INTO EASTERN CONUS. UPPER LOW MOVING QUICKLY EAST THIS MORNING. UNDER THE CLOUDS TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S AND IN THE CLEARING SECTOR IN THE LOW TO MID 20S. DROPPED TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 20S TONIGHT WITH COOLER MID 20S OVER SNOW FIELD.
432 PM EDT THU MAR 24 2016 AT MID AFTERNOON A COLD FRONT STRETCHED FROM DEEP LOW PRESSURE AT THE NORTHERN END OF INDIANA TO EXTREME WESTERN KENTUCKY AND ON SOUTHWESTWARD.
325 PM EDT THU MAR 24 2016 A COLD FRONT WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN AND A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER NORTHERN INDIANA WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING TO THE SOUTH. NEARLY EVERY MODEL FORECAST THAT HAS COME IN DURING THE DAY HAS SLOWED THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT BY A COUPLE OF HOURS. ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED SHOWER COULD LINGER IN THE RIDGES DURING THE MORNING HOURS. FRIDAY NIGHT IS WHEN SKIES WILL TRULY CLEAR OUT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION.
Highs in the lower to upper 40s will occur this afternoon. Clouds will continue to slowly clear from west to east this evening into tonight, allowing lows to drop into the upper 20s to the lower 30s tonight into early Friday morning.
Further west another, weaker, 500mb trough was located over Washington and southern British Columbia. At the surface an area of high pressure was located over northeast Colorado. The upper level low driving all the sensible weather last night will continue to move away from the forecast region. In the wake, high pressure will build in. Critical fire weather conditions are not expected this afternoon as relative humidities will be higher given the cooler temperatures. For tonight, weak High Plains lee troughing will developing with a light southerly wind continuing through the overnight. Mins in the lower 30s are expected.
COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SETTLE INTO SOUTH TEXAS OVERNIGHT. WEAK ONSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP ON FRI AND CONTINUE FRI NGT AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE TX PANHANDLE.
/ISSUED 1132 AM CDT THU MAR 24 2016/ THE COLD FRONT IS APPROACHING THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AT THIS TIME. DEWPOINTS WERE RUNNING ABOUT TEN DEGREES COOLER. THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL TRACK THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH. WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING TO AT OR BELOW FREEZING TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE BEHIND THIS FRONT BUT WILL STILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE FREEZING.
/issued 309 AM CDT THU MAR 24 2016/ Cold front currently surging toward northern Mexico with high pressure building southward into the forecast area behind it.
WHICH SHOULD INCREASE TOWARD MORNING DUE TO THE INFLUENCES OF THE UPR TROF. WHILE ANOTHER UPR TROF WORKS ITS WAY SOUTH INTO THE STATE WITH THE MAIN ENERGY BEING BACK OVR THE GREAT BASIN. MAINLY THE HIGH ELEVATIONS OF LAKE COUNTY.
A strong Pacific cold front continues to work its way across Western Montana this afternoon, bringing gusty winds and a mix of rain, snow and graupel along for the ride! These showers are forecast to only grow in number as colder air works its way into the region overnight and should produce steadily increasing impacts due to snow accumulating on roadways.
1136 AM MDT THU MAR 24 2016 EARLY MORNING WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS CLOSED UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER NORTHEAST KS. HOWEVER LOCATIONS IN OUR NORTH/NORTHWEST MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH THE LOW 40S IF SNOW PACK LIMITS DIURNAL HEATING. HOWEVER LEE TROUGH BEGINS TO DEEPEN AS ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION WITH INCREASING BL WINDS. I LEANED LOW TEMP FORECAST TOWARDS 2M GUIDANCE (WARMER BLENDS) AS MIXING MAY PREVENT BETTER RADIATIONAL COOLING.
340 PM CDT THU MAR 24 2016 WITH MEAN WEAK TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS. WEAK RIDGING WAS NOTED ALONG THE WEST AND EAST COAST.
530 PM CDT THU MAR 24 2016 LATE WINTER STORM SYSTEM PUSHED EAST OF THE AREA WITH GOES VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING CLEARING WORKING IN FROM MN/NORTHWEST WI AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WERE IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE 30S WITH NORTHEAST WINDS OF 10-20 MPH ADDING A BITE TO THE AIR. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLE ACROSS THE REGION FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. FRIDAY WILL SEE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MID/HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE EXCEPTION BEING NORTH OF I-90 WHERE A LIGHT WINTRY MIX MAY BE SEEN AS LOW TEMPERATURES HOVER RIGHT AROUND THE FREEZING MARK.
THE 12 UTC MODEL SUITE WAS CONSISTENT IN ADVERTISING A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO FAR NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL ND AFTER 06 UTC. THERE IS A NARROW WINDOW NEAR THE FRONTAL ZONE WHERE THE MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST A LOW-END CHANCE OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IN THE 06 TO 15 UTC TIME FRAME. ADD IN THE LIKELIHOOD THAT EVEN WHILE SNOW IS FALLING ROAD SURFACES MAY STAY ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON OWING TO THE LATE- MARCH SOLAR ANGLE AND RADIATIVE INFLUENCE EVEN THROUGH CLOUDS AND THE PRECEDING ROAD WARMTH.
WITH THE LOWEST TEMPERATURES IN THE EASTERN COLORADO CWA COUNTIES DUE TO THE SNOW PACK FROM YESTERDAY. SINCE THE TEMPERATURES ARE INCREASING THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND WITH GROUND TEMPERATURES STILL ABOVE FREEZING THE SNOW PACK IS MELTING FAIRLY WELL TODAY.
A LOW IN SOUTHERN MICHIGAN WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO MAINE FRIDAY PULLING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.
412 PM CDT THU MAR 24 2016 GRAVITY WAVE INDUCED SQUALL LINE IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT HAS BROUGHT SOME DRAMA TO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WATER VAPOR SHOWS UPPER RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE NRN ROCKIES AHEAD OF NEXT UPPER LOW PUSHING THROUGH THE PAC NW. RIDGE COVERS MUCH OF THE DAKOTAS WITH PRESSURE FALLS ALONG THE NRN ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT. UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE OVER THE NRN PLAINS AS UPPER LOW WORKS INTO WRN MT. UPPER LOW WILL SPIN EWD THROUGH MT WITH LEAD SHORT WAVE AND CDFNT MOVING INTO OUR WRN CWFA. UPPER LOW WILL TRACK SEWD INTO WRN SD. STRONGER PUSH OF COLD AIR WILL THEN SWEEP THROUGH THE CWFA IN THE AFTN WITH AMPLE LIFT FROM UPPER LOW PROVIDING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN/SNOW TO MUCH OF THE CWFA. MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND STRONGER WITH THIS UPPER LOW.
THE LOWER 60S JUST AHEAD OF THE NEXT LINE WOULD NEED TO MAKE IT OVER IN ORDER FOR A SEVERE RISK TO MATERIALIZE. SUNSHINE VS CLOUDS: SFC TEMPS ARE CURRENTLY IN THE LOW/MID 60S WITH OVC SKIES. JMS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING OVER THE MID SOUTH RIVER WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
322 PM CDT THU MAR 24 2016 Low pressure system making its way through the Midwest today still has some light precipitation in its wake, mainly along and north of the I-74 corridor before sunset. Models with varied handling of the low level cloud cover, but expect a clearing trend to begin after 06-07Z.
1205 PM CDT THU MAR 24 2016 ALOFT: THE COMPACT UPR LOW THAT BROUGHT THE HIGH WINDS AND WINTRY WX WAS OVER ERN NEB/KS. A PIECE OF THIS HIGH WILL BREAK OFF AND EMERGE OVER NEB/KS THIS AFTERNOON/EVE.
653 PM EDT THU MAR 24 2016 A LOW IN SOUTHERN MICHIGAN WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO MAINE FRIDAY PULLING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL GIVE A BREAK IN THE WEATHER FRIDAY NIGHT.
340 PM MDT THU MAR 24 2016 THERE IS SOME LIGHT SNOW FALLING OVER THE HIGH MOUNTAINS RIGHT NOW BUT IT IS MINOR. MODELS HAVE AN UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPING TO OUR NORTH AND NORTHWEST. WITH A COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO BEFORE NOON FRIDAY. WILL BRING SOME 10-40% POPS INTO THE PLAINS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ON FRIDAY WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH AND INCREASING MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE FLOW.
DEW POINTS REMAIN IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S ACROSS ALL BUT OUR FAR NORTHWEST COUNTIES. BEHIND THIS BAND EXPECT TO GET A TEMPORARY BREAK IN PRECIPITATION COVERAGE BUT A SECOND ROUND OF SHOWERS/STORMS WILL LIKELY OCCUR LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST.
WE SHOULD SEE SPEEDS PICK UP AS LEE TROUGH TIGHTENS TO OUR WEST. LOW WILL SINK SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE CWFA WITH TIME THOUGH COLD FRONT SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF THE REGION THROUGH 00Z SAT.