Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
High pressure that was located over the region yesterday will lift northeastward resulting in winds shifting from easterly to southeasterly later today.
810 AM EST Sun Dec 3 2017 Dry high pressure building across the region will move offshore late Monday.
With an upper low approaching and lift spreading into the region, we expect showers to continue to expand across the region. A warm night is in store as warm and moist southerly flow in the low-levels continues. Lows will be in the 60s for most areas along with a low chance for showers as the weakening upper low translates eastward.
A low pressure system will bring strong winds and increased high clouds to the region today. The associated cold front will sweep across the Great Basin and Mojave Desert this afternoon and evening, bringing gusty north winds and the coldest temperatures thus far this season.
Temperatures range from the 40s along the lee slopes, to the mid 20s along the lower Arkansas River valley. an upper level storm system is forecast to move out of the Pacific Northwest into the Northern Rockies, with a trailing trough across northern Utah. the upper storm system will continue east with the trailing trough across northern Colorado. Winds will strengthen across the higher elevations overnight, where gusts could reach near 70 mph, especially over the Central Mountains.
902 AM EST Sun Dec 3 2017 High pressure provides dry weather through Monday, with a slow warming trend.
Southwest winds aloft will increase today, but the low levels remain dry. However the front will bring a surge of west to northwest winds and sharp cooling coming off the mountains toward morning that should drop temperatures near or below freezing. On Monday, the upper level trough will be near the Nebraska panhandle by 12z with its axis along the eastern CO border at that time.
921 AM EST Sun Dec 3 2017 High pressure will lead to continued dry and mild conditions today into Monday.
Upper trof moving across the west coast with Pacific moisture spreading northward into Montana. Low pressure system still developing over southwest Montana, for warmer air still pushing north into eastern Montana. Very amplified pattern developing with strong Hudson Bay low keeping deep trof over the eastern states and sharp ridge along the west coast. Northerly flow between these features will stream across the high plains, with the biggest forecast concern being where the boundary between the cold and warm air will be.
1016 AM EST Sun Dec 3 2017 Dry high pressure building across the region will move offshore late Monday.
Models in pretty good agreement on the overall timing and strength of upper trough which will move through the region later today through tonight. This still appears to be a fast moving weather system driven by an upper 120kt jet which undercuts the trough late today to propel it quickly through our area.
530 AM EST Sun Dec 3 2017 High pressure provides dry weather through Monday, with a slow warming trend.
For today, rain chances are expected to increase with warm air advection taking place as a weak coastal trough develops across southern Texas. Most activity should remain as showers, but enough moisture and instability at H5 while the trough moves across may lead to a few possible thunderstorms, mainly this afternoon into the overnight. Activity is expected to wane from west to east overnight in wake of the exiting trough. Temperatures will again be warm in the lower 80s today and Monday, with overnight lows in the mid to upper 60s.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 64 43 66 54 / 0 0 0 20 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 60 40 66 50 / 0 0 0 10 Oak Ridge, TN 62 40 64 51 / 0 0 0 20 Tri Cities Airport, TN 61 34 62 43 / 0 0 0 10.
There is no cooling assocd with this boundary so temperatures will remain above normal, reaching the lower 80s most areas (except upper 70s Volusia coast).
a wave was pushing eastward across California and Nevada which is forecast to move through the Plains Monday with a strong cold front into the CWA Monday afternoon. These winds combined with dewpoints in the 50s will aid in afternoon temperatures slightly warmer compared to yesterday.
The front is well off to our east, but considerable showers remain over the area this morning as the parent upper trough moves through. An upper ridge begins building just off the coast Monday and then strengthens and becomes centered right along the coast through the remainder of the week. Despite the strong ridging, clearing skies, limited to no mixing, and long December nights will bring cold low temperatures tonight and then again Monday night. Freezing levels are low at around 3500 feet and will continue to drop to around 3000 feet msl on Sunday morning.
Thursday will see similar temps and conditions with upper low only slightly farther northeast and mostly aftn shower/storm threat in the nrn fcst area.
1226 PM CDT Wed Jun 14 2017 Upper low is currently lifting across western ND/eastern MT with the impulse that helped generate storms Tue afternoon/evening lifting over west-central KS. At the surface, the cold front extends from north central Nebraska into western portions of KS. This will push a cold front south, moving through the forecast area Sat night into Sun morning. This will provide a wind shift to a more northerly direction and and a reprieve from the higher wind speeds we have been experiencing the past few days.
314 PM EDT Wed Jun 14 2017 High pressure crosses the region tonight and Thursday, and moves offshore Thursday night.
248 PM MDT Wed Jun 14 2017 An upper level low pressure system will exit the region tonight, as light rain showers diminish around the Havre area early this evening.
SHORT TERM (Tonight through Thursday Night): 500mb subtropical ridge across northern mexico and southwest Texas will continue to provide subsidence across the Rio Grande valley and northern ranchlands tonight into Thursday.
No changes needed for today's forecast although high clouds will be mostly opaque this afternoon which should keep inland high temperatures a few degrees cooler than forecast.
543 PM EDT Wed Jun 14 2017 High pressure crosses the region tonight and Thursday, and moves offshore Thursday night.
Mainly dry conditions are expected later tonight into Thursday morning, followed by renewed chances for showers and thunderstorms Thursday afternoon as a weak cold front moves through.
A quick low amplitude ridge has caused dry conditions around the Northern Rockies today with temperatures running around 5 to 10 degrees below normal. Then on Thursday a weak cold front will swing through the region causing an increase in shower activity with gusty westerly winds mixing to the surface during the afternoon and evening.
343 PM CDT Wed Jun 14 2017 Water vapor loop indicating closed upper low rolling northeastward acrs the SD/Canadian border region, with cyclonic southwesterlies arching down toward the mid MS RVR Valley. Then, the central plains upper short wave trof approaches late tonight for a possible uptick in overnight and early thu morning convection for isolated to sctrd showers/storms in the southern and southeastern CWA, but marginal at best LLJ convergence make this another low confidence call. Then an approaching upper trof in progressive westerlies, and arrival of a weak NNE-to-SSW oriented sfc front pushing into the western CWA from central IA, may allow for isolated to sctrd thunderstorms to POP up in central Ia and possibly make it into the far west central and northwestern CWA By late afternoon.
607 PM EDT Wed Jun 14 2017 Dry and seasonable as high pressure drifts east over the Atlantic south of Nova Scotia on Thursday.
The winds will create elevated fire danger in the lower mountain elevations, but some areas are still quite green, and in other places the humidity and fuel moisture are both marginal for Red Flag criteria, so we will not issue a warning. There may be some weak convection over the plains 4 pm to 8 pm with the trough axis, but the chance of rain looks too low to mention. There is some warming through the mid levels and thus high temperatures are expected to be 5 degrees warmer than yesterday.
The sfc pressure gradient will weaken through the morning as the upper low continues to move northward away from our area.
149 PM EDT Wed Jun 14 2017 High pressure builds into the region from southeastern Canada today into Thursday.
235 PM EDT Wed Jun 14 2017 Large Canadian high pressure will build toward the region through Thursday.
With the transition to a more zonal pattern locally, an eastward progressing cold front will stall overnight across northeastern Kansas. This will keep the CWA within the warm sector until the mid-weekend, at which point the upstream cold front will gain enough momentum from a separate upper-level system to finally push eastward of the area.
338 PM CDT Wed Jun 14 2017 Subsidence downstream of an upper level ridge centered over northern Mexico will result in decreasing deep layer moisture and rainfall chances over the next few days.
/issued 1004 AM CDT Wed Jun 14 2017/ Southerly flow around a Bermuda High pressure system is continuing to transport warm/moist Gulf air into the forecast region. With moist southerlies continuing withing the low and mid levels do expect to see development of a few showers over the southern portion of the area this morning, and a few thunderstorms through the afternoon across the entire area. The upper level low that has been sitting over the region has drifted into the Florida panhandle this morning. high pressure anchored over the four corners has built across Texas and into Louisiana and this will be the major player over the next several days.
328 PM CDT Wed Jun 14 2017 Tonight and Thursday: Weak mid-level ridging continues to prevail over the area this afternoon and this will continue into tonight. Once again, expect muggy overnight lows in the low/mid 70s. Changes are on the way overnight as the mid-level ridge begins to break down overnight into Thursday. Hot and humid conditions will continue on Thursday as the mid level ridge gives way to troughing and northwest flow.
332 PM CDT Wed Jun 14 2017 The synoptic pattern this afternoon features an upper level trough moving across portions of the northern Plains, with its trough axis extending southeast into portions of MN/IA and northern MO. This trough will swing through this evening into tonight, bringing continued chances for showers/storms to the region. Activity will shift mainly south of the region on Thursday, as surface ridging briefly takes hold.
132 PM EDT Wed Jun 14 2017 High pressure will build south from Canada today through tonight and will shift offshore on Thursday.
Dry and warmer today. below 15 percent across much of the lower elevations.
temperatures have climbed into the mid to upper 80s across much of the lower elevations this afternoon with a couple of more degrees of warming expected. Mozley Upper ridge remains in place Fri, with hot and dry conditions continuing. Ridge is then flattened somewhat on Sat as upper trough races from the nrn Rockies into the high plains before deepening over the Great Lakes Sat night into Sun. Max temps Sun will fall substantially over the eastern mountains and plains, with readings 10-15f cooler than Sat, while more modest cooling of 4-8f looks likely over interior valleys and the mountains along the Continental Divide. Ridge rebuilds Mon-Tue and hot weather returns, though mountains may have just enough moisture for some high-based weak convection both days. A weak cold front will switch winds northerly this evening at KCOS and KPUB.
256 PM CDT Wed Jun 14 2017 At 2 PM, a short wave trough was producing showers and storms across western Wisconsin.
After that, skies will clear and warmer and drier air aloft will move in with surface winds becoming light.
Lapse rates aloft are steeper today partly due to the drier air working in, but temperatures from 800-650mb are overall warmer than yesterday. Also, orographic ridgetop convection was also already beginning over NE AL as remnants of an old upper trough move southward into that region today.
Storms are primarily diurnally-driven and should dissipate after sunset as a mid/upper level ridge will remain over the area tonight. The MET and MAV guidance have big differences in their PoPs tomorrow, but will favor the higher chances of the MAV, which are in the 50-70% range across the area. The upper ridge will continue to weaken over the next several days and through the weekend as heights slowly fall. With an unstable airmass, a chance of showers and thunderstorms will remain with the highest probabilities across the higher elevations of the eastern Tennessee mountains along the TN/NC border.
expect low temperatures to drop into the lower 60s in most locations overnight. temperatures tomorrow afternoon are expected to warm a few degrees over this afternoons highs thanks to deeper mixing anticipated, with most location topping out in the lower 90s.
A weakness in the mid level ridging pattern will drift across and through the area today. The slight increase in mid level support and slightly cooler mid level temperatures associated with this feature /along with the diurnal seabreeze front/ will lead to good chances /40-60 chance/ across the area and especially in the afternoon hours.
CRP likely remain SCT with the low clouds. Deeper moisture has moved into the region as mid-level ridging remains overhead which will only strengthen the next 24-36 hours.
Cooler (by mid-June standards) and drier air will move in on north- northeasterly winds, with the surface fropa occurring around daybreak across the western counties, finally reaching south central KS by early to mid afternoon. Afternoon temperatures will be some 8 to 10 degrees cooler behind this front versus what we have seen the past couple of days.
VFR conditions should return mid morning tomorrow after the low cigs scatter out.
531 PM EDT Wed Jun 14 2017 Atlantic high pressure will remain to the east while a trough develops inland. Lows from the lower 70s inland to the mid 70s at the coast look reasonable, although a few sheltered spots inland could drop into the upper 60s just before sunrise. A weak lee trough is expected to develop during the day which should allow for an earlier, stronger sea breeze boundary to push inland.
300 PM MDT Wed Jun 14 2017 Water vapor imagery shows upper low continuing to drift over south central Canada north of North Dakota.
Upper pattern during the period will dominated by an expanding SW conus/northern Mexico ridge with the ridging over the SE weakening and becoming virtually non existent. Latest surface analysis shows shows a frontal boundary slicing through the nations mid section and into low pressure moving through the Canadian prairie provinces.
301 PM EDT Wed Jun 14 2017 Rain-free weather, will be with us through Thursday morning, as high pressure along the New England coast, maintains control.
429 PM EDT Wed Jun 14 2017 Aviation section updated A warm front is forecast to cross Indiana from the southwest overnight and Thursday. Next our weather will come under control of high pressure covering most of the United States east of the Mississippi.
640 PM EDT Wed Jun 14 2017 Dry and seasonable as high pressure drifts east over the Atlantic south of Nova Scotia on Thursday.
1223 PM CDT Wed Jun 14 2017 Near term: recent rainfall has resulted in saturated conditions in the low levels. The upper pattern over the next few days shows an upper low lifting across North Dakota into souther Canada where it will sit and spin during the course of the short term. The cooler mid level temperatures, combined with winds shifting to the west, will result in favorable mixing conditions. This will also help mix out the low level humidity.
A strong ridge will build into the region with estimated 500mb heights around 598mb which is quite a strong height anomaly. The result of this strong ridge will be the onset of a heat wave for Western Nevada and the Sierra.
346 PM EDT Wed Jun 14 2017 Dry and seasonable as high pressure drifts east over the Atlantic south of Nova Scotia on Thursday.
406 PM CDT Wed Jun 14 2017 Cold front this afternoon is slowly marching across central MN. The upper forcing is splitting the MPX area to the north and south with the primary upper low up by Winnipeg and another short wave that is driving severe convection into eastern WI this afternoon. On the whole though, Thursday will be a beautiful summer day for the upper MS Valley Zonal flow will be present over the the northern tier of the CONUS towards the end of the week as the upper low over Canada continues its slow trek off to Hudson Bay.
1123 AM MDT Wed Jun 14 2017 Current model data indicates an upper level short wave trough will deepen over northern Yuma County beginning at 6 PM tonight. At the surface a trough will be in the same vicinity, helping to focus the lift from the upper level feature. A weak nose of the low level jet will also be in close proximity.
After a break through the overnight, storms will refire during the day Thursday as a short wave trough sweeps across the Great Lakes region.
127 PM MDT Wed Jun 14 2017 Latest upper air analysis shows the closed low along the US/Canadian border. South of the low westerly flow was moving over the Plains. At the surface a high pressure was moving across Western Kansas. Meanwhile shortly after noon an upper level short wave trough will deepen just east of Norton and Graham counties near the dry line. Due to the high CAPE values becoming available quite early in the afternoon as the upper level short wave trough deepens overhead, severe thunderstorms could start earlier than is typical.
145 PM MDT Wed Jun 14 2017 Latest upper air analysis shows the closed low along the US/Canadian border. South of the low westerly flow was moving over the Plains. At the surface a high pressure was moving across Western Kansas. Meanwhile shortly after noon an upper level short wave trough will deepen just east of Norton and Graham counties near the dry line. Due to the high CAPE values becoming available quite early in the afternoon as the upper level short wave trough deepens overhead, severe thunderstorms could start earlier than is typical.
338 PM EDT Wed Jun 14 2017 Atlantic high pressure will remain to the east while a trough develops inland. Lows will be in the lower 70s. A weak lee trough is expected to develop during the day which should allow for an earlier, stronger sea breeze boundary to push inland.
133 PM EDT Wed Jun 14 2017 WV imagery and RAP analysis indicated a mid/upper level low over wrn North Dakota resulting cyclonic sw flow from the cntrl plains through the upper MS valley to wrn Lake Superior. At the surface, sse flow had increased through thregion ahead of a trough over the ern Dakotas and a warm front through sw WI. Looks like there's an outside shot at a stronger storm or two over the E Thu afternoon as a cold front moves through, but not expecting any severe storms.
This is likely in the vicinity of the surface warm front. But the lower levels are saturated to the ground overnight/into tmrw, so anticipate lots of clouds/fog/drizzle and a continuing chance of light rain.
A northern stream short wave trough moving east along the Canadian border will help send a back door cold front into the northeast CWA by Thursday evening.
Low clouds and patchy fog are expected to develop across the area tonight and MVFR to near IFR ceilings/visibilities will develop late tonight into early Thurs morning as winds will be light and variable and surface moisture across the lower TX coast moves inland. Given recent trends we did shave pops just a bit more for today with the highest residing over the open Gulf waters. If clouds erode quicker than anticipated, our temps may be a bit on the low side. Whatever coastal troughing is left will begin to lose its grip on the area.
236 PM CDT Wed Nov 1 2017 A broad upper level trough is over the northern part of the country and westerly flow is over the CWA. A more zonal flow pattern will take shape for Thursday; otherwise, conditions will be similar to today with temperatures perhaps a degree or two warmer.
1257 PM CDT Wed Nov 1 2017 Warmer temperatures are expected through the forecast period as the upper jet lifts northward, thus even when a few cold frontal passages occur, the colder air behind them will not be nearly as potent as fronts over the last week. Temperatures today will reach the 50s to near 60 degrees as returning moisture/southerly flow and rising temperatures aloft battle extensive afternoon cloud cover; then, mixing along and just behind a cold front Thursday afternoon will allow temperatures to warm into the 60s, possibly even the 70s in southeastern portions of the CWA where fropa will occur after the warmest portion of the day.
A warm front is draped across central KY this afternoon, with a widespread area of showers spreading ENE north of the WK/BG parkways. As the warm front surges north of the area tonight, coverage of showers will be spotty at best. The vast majority of the day looks dry, which will allow temperatures to surge into the lower 70s.
There is the possibility of MVFR ceilings late in the TAF cycle at CHA as a warm front lifts northward with weak isentropic ascent but confidence is too low to include in the TAFs.
613 PM EDT Wed Nov 1 2017 High pressure over the region today will move east tonight.
Issued by National Weather Service JACKSON KY 321 PM EDT Wed Nov 1 2017 Light rain will taper off across the region overnight as a warm frontal boundary lifts north. A surface warm front continues to lift northward, causing surface winds to shift out of the south. This will bring in warmer air through the overnight period, likely resulting in early evening minimum temperatures before gradually rising through the remainder of the night. Towards the surface, high pressure settled over the southeastern CONUS will set up return flow with moisture flowing northward into the OH Valley region.
229 PM MDT Wed Nov 1 2017 Upper level analysis shows a broad trough covering the CONUS, with a 110-kt jet in northwest flow pushing into the northern plains. Behind the cold front, winds are northwesterly around 10 to 15 kts. Forecast soundings indicate the potential for some light freezing rain east of the Hills and also across northwestern SD, as well as a little snow.
130 PM CDT Wed Nov 1 2017 A warm front is situated north of Middle Tennessee this afternoon, with warm, moist air advecting from the south and driving temperatures and dew points higher, and patches of light rain still moving across the mid state.
However, low clouds will linger through the night, as the southerly fetch off the Gulf keeps the low-levels moist. The broad upper-trough will remain the dominant weather feature across the CONUS over the next couple of days.
238 PM EDT Wed Nov 1 2017 Rain will continue through the night as a warm front lifts north over the area.
607 PM EDT Wed Nov 1 2017 Light rain will taper off across the region overnight as a warm frontal boundary lifts north. Shower activity had really decreased after the warm front went through, so lowered PoP across much of the region, but added a slight chance in the mountains. A surface warm front continues to lift northward, causing surface winds to shift out of the south. This will bring in warmer air through the overnight period, likely resulting in early evening minimum temperatures before gradually rising through the remainder of the night. Towards the surface, high pressure settled over the southeastern CONUS will set up return flow with moisture flowing northward into the OH Valley region.
636 PM EDT Wed Nov 1 2017 High pressure will ridge into the forecast area through the rest of the week. Temps will continue above normal, especially during the afternoon hours, where highs will be 10 degrees or so warmer than usual for early November.
A weak disturbance will bring increasing clouds east of Las Vegas tonight and Thursday, with sprinkles or light showers possible over the higher terrain. A stronger storm system moving into the region will bring increasing wind, cooler temperatures, and chances for valley rain and mountain snow over the weekend.