Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
This tranquil weather is in response to a ridge of high pressure that is originating off the southern California coast. The next system to bring a chance of precip to our area is continuing to come ashore over the PacNW and is causing the ridge axis to flatten as the axis also shifts to the east. With minimal moisture to work with, this wave will bring a few inches of snow to the higher elevations of those ranges and a dusting to maybe an inch for adjacent valleys.
This afternoon, weak ridging was centered just west of the forecast area, in between two areas of troughing over both the northwest and northeast parts of the CONUS. No precipitation is expected with this front, with the main impacts an increase in low to mid level clouds, a shift to northwesterly winds, and cooler temperatures. In the wake of tonight's cold front, Saturday will be cooler but still have near normal temperatures, with highs in the mid to upper 30s and a northwest breeze.
Early evening water vapor satellite imagery and METAR observations are showing a moist airmass remaining over the Florida Peninsula to the south of a weak cold front pushing into the state, with surface dew points currently in the low 70s.
Very quiet conditions were observed this afternoon, with abundant sunshine under an area of high pressure that continues to settle into the region from the west. 1) Dry conditions will continue through Saturday afternoon before our next bout of widespread rainfall moves in for late Saturday The area of high pressure will remain in control over the region during the short term period. High temperatures Saturday are expected to warm up to the lower to middle 50s.
554 PM CST Fri Nov 25 2022 (Through tonight ) Large upper level low is currently centered over northern Chihuahua and is just beginning to eject east this afternoon. (Tomorrow through Friday) As the upper low continues to lift ENE Saturday toward the Red R valley, rain will continue to expand northeast Saturday morning.
Although not strong, there will be cross-barrier flow over the high mountains which will support breezy conditions in those areas Saturday AM. It will be mild with highs in the 50s over the low elevations, 40s for foothills, and 20s/30s for the mountains. Model cross sections show shallow moisture developing in the high country towards the afternoon period. Meanwhile a cold front moves across the plains in the afternoon from northeast to southwest accompanied by enhanced northeasterly flow behind it. Relative humidity will be on the lower end; however, not near critical thresholds thus limiting the chances for critical fire weather conditions.
This activity will move east as the upper ridge shifts east and the large upper low that has been across west Texas begins to track east as well.
348 PM CST Fri Nov 25 2022 (Issued 348 PM CST Fri Nov 25 2022) Tonight through Saturday night: High pressure will slide through the Ohio River Valley tonight and the weather in southern WI will remain quiet and mild. A low pressure trough approaching from the Northern Plains will cause increasing west-southwest winds early Saturday morning and gusty southwest winds during the daylight hours. Clouds will start to fill into southern WI by late afternoon as low pressure tracks toward southern MO.
Dry weather will continue through tomorrow as high pressure slides across southern Illinois. Overnight lows will fall to below freezing and this could cause some slick spots where the fog is the thickest and roads are untreated.
245 PM MST Fri Nov 25 2022 Current water vapor imagery and upper air analysis indicates weak northerly flow aloft across the region, with an upper low spinning across Old Mexico.
Winds will generally be South to Southwest tonight ahead of the cold front. A cold front will start to push into the western counties tonight into the early morning. The cold front should migrate out the CWA by early evening Saturday.
Showers associated with the upper level low currently over southwest Texas are still on track to spread into southeast Oklahoma after midnight and possibly into northeast Oklahoma by sunrise Saturday. (Tomorrow through Friday) As the upper low continues to lift ENE Saturday toward the Red R valley, rain will continue to expand northeast Saturday morning.
925 PM EST Fri Nov 25 2022 High pressure builds into the Commonwealth tonight bringing dry weather to last through Saturday.
Skies will remain mostly clear tonight with lows ranging in the low to mid 30s. Saturday looks to be even warmer with temperatures reaching the mid 50s for our southwestern counties and mid-upper 40s for our eastern counties as we transition to southeasterly flow.
738 PM EST Fri Nov 25 2022 High pressure builds into the Commonwealth tonight bringing dry weather to last through Saturday.
Look for overnight lows to drop into the low 40s with some areas reaching the upper 30s.
At the surface, a low pressure trough is currently situated over the western Dakotas. Southwesterly flow ahead of it has been ushering warmer air into the region today, with most locations seeing temperatures in the 40s and 50s this afternoon. The trough/front will track eastward to extend from northeastern South Dakota to south central South Dakota by early Saturday morning, then exits the area to the east by midday Saturday. High pressure begins to nose in Saturday afternoon, then becomes the dominant feature over the plains states Saturday night. Temperatures will be cooler on Saturday as H925 temps will be about 10 degrees cooler than today, but will still be warm enough for Saturday afternoon temperatures to be about 5 to 10 degrees above normal.
545 PM EST Fri Nov 25 2022 High pressure builds into the Commonwealth tonight bringing dry weather to last through Saturday.
317 PM MST Fri Nov 25 2022 Today's gusty winds favor warmer than normal highs. The upper level ridge that had settled over Montana the past few days will continue to break down as an upper level trough begins to work its way into the area. Strong gusty winds continue along The Rocky Mountain Front where downsloping winds will favor warmer temperatures. Any snow will taper off quickly on Saturday as an upper level trough moves to the east, though cooler air will continue to work its way into the region on breezy westerly winds. Highs on Saturday will be noticeably cooler area wide as daytime temperatures top out in the mid 30s to low 40s.
537 PM EST Fri Nov 25 2022 Light showers will wrap up mid-day, lingering in the ridges.
455 PM MST Fri Nov 25 2022 Today's gusty winds favor warmer than normal highs. /ISSUED 317 PM MST Fri Nov 25 2022/ The upper level ridge that had settled over Montana the past few days will continue to break down as an upper level trough begins to work its way into the area. Strong gusty winds continue along The Rocky Mountain Front where downsloping winds will favor warmer temperatures. Any snow will taper off quickly on Saturday as an upper level trough moves to the east, though cooler air will continue to work its way into the region on breezy westerly winds. Highs on Saturday will be noticeably cooler area wide as daytime temperatures top out in the mid 30s to low 40s.
High pressure is centered over portions of southern and central Illinois this evening. Skies are clear across the region, which combined with light winds under the high pressure, will allow temps to quickly fall this evening. Dry weather will continue through tomorrow as high pressure slides across southern Illinois. Overnight lows will fall to below freezing and this could cause some slick spots where the fog is the thickest and roads are untreated.
419 PM MST Fri Nov 25 2022 Broad upper ridging covers the western and north central CONUS, while a trough pushes into the Pacific NW. Upper ridge will flatten tonight as Pac NW trough comes ashore, and the cold front will begin crossing our CWA.
With the overcast skies being high, most models have no clue due to decreased sampling at the highest layers and ASOS obs not reporting above 12 kft.
557 PM CST Fri Nov 25 2022 (This evening through Saturday) An upper level low is currently over northern Mexico/Far West Texas according to water vapor satellite imagery. Rain showers will be diminishing from southwest to northeast across the region Saturday morning and afternoon as the upper low makes its way from west to east across West Central Texas. Expect cooler lows in the mid 30s tonight in the southwest counties where some clearing of clouds/rain is expected, with lows in the low to mid 40s elsewhere. Some sunshine will likely be able to break out across the southern counties in the afternoon, with highs in those areas able to reach the low to mid 50s, while highs in the upper 40s are expected in the Big Country.
719 PM EST Fri Nov 25 2022 Drying/clearing in store for this evening into Saturday as high pressure builds behind the front.
The Northland is pinched between high pressure to the south and low pressure to the north.
High pressure will bring quiet weather conditions to the area through tonight. A passing weather disturbance and cold front is expected to bring some light flurries and snow showers mainly across the higher terrain of Elko county Saturday.
some high cloudiness will move north into the area ahead of an upper level low pressure system over west central Texas. cloud cover to various degrees will continue over the area during the day as the upper level low moves into northeast Texas. During the night, clouds increase from the northwest as an upper level trough approaches. Low temperatures are expected to be in the lower 20s to around 30. A cold front will enter the northwest corner of the forecast area around late morning, continuing south and through the area during the afternoon and into the night.
A cold front ahead of this wave will move through NE Montana before sunrise this morning. Temperatures will be somewhat cooler for highs today.
1221 AM EST Sat Nov 26 2022 High pressure builds into the Commonwealth tonight bringing dry weather to last through Saturday.
Downstream, deep SSW flow has enveloped much of the Lower Mississippi Valley.
A cold front will approach north Florida late tonight with a band of showers and thunderstorms ahead of the boundary.
1051 PM CST Fri Nov 25 2022 (This evening through Saturday) An upper level low is currently over northern Mexico/Far West Texas according to water vapor satellite imagery. Rain showers will be diminishing from southwest to northeast across the region Saturday morning and afternoon as the upper low makes its way from west to east across West Central Texas. Expect cooler lows in the mid 30s tonight in the southwest counties where some clearing of clouds/rain is expected, with lows in the low to mid 40s elsewhere. Some sunshine will likely be able to break out across the southern counties in the afternoon, with highs in those areas able to reach the low to mid 50s, while highs in the upper 40s are expected in the Big Country.
High pressure will remain over Arizona through the weekend, with relatively warmer conditions and lighter breezes expected.
230 AM CST Sat Nov 26 2022 Aside from the chance to see a few flurries/sprinkles along a crashing cold front throughout the day today, quiet weather is expected across the short term period. The main forecast challenge will be the degree of warming ahead of the cold front. As a closed low over the southern Plains makes an eastward jaunt, northward moisture flux will be limited. Temperatures will also remain relatively stagnant ahead of the front, with cooler air filtering in behind the front.
High pressure will remain over Arizona, with relatively warmer conditions and lighter breezes expected through the weekend.
(Today and tonight) Potent upper level low centered near Pecos at 08z maintains an impressive satellite appearance with broad upper diffluence visible across most of the Big Country into the South Plains region early this morning. The low has now begun to accelerate ENE-ward, with the dry slot observed pivoting back over New Mexico as renewed midlevel moisture surges back into the region from the southeast. Surface temperatures remain above freezing across the majority of the forecast area, with only a few sites across the SW South Plains observed reaching or falling just below 0C overnight. The upper low will accelerate northeastward this afternoon, with precip rapidly ending west of I-27 by mid-afternoon.
Temperatures out west continue to linger in the 40s with the remainder of the area dropping into the lower 30s. This afternoon, weak ridging was centered just west of the forecast area, in between two areas of troughing over both the northwest and northeast parts of the CONUS. No precipitation is expected with this front, with the main impacts an increase in low to mid level clouds, a shift to northwesterly winds, and cooler temperatures. In the wake of tonight's cold front, Saturday will be cooler but still have near normal temperatures, with highs in the mid to upper 30s and a northwest breeze.
(Today) Upper low currently centered for far SW TX will lift northeastward into the ArkLaTex region by early evening. Expansive precip shield currently across N TX will spread north and eastward ahead of the upper low with widespread rain expanding across the forecast area today. (Tonight through Friday) Upper low accelerates northeastward tonight with rains ending from south to north during the evening into overnight hours.
923 PM CST Fri Nov 25 2022 Temperatures out west continue to linger in the 40s with the remainder of the area dropping into the lower 30s. This afternoon, weak ridging was centered just west of the forecast area, in between two areas of troughing over both the northwest and northeast parts of the CONUS. No precipitation is expected with this front, with the main impacts an increase in low to mid level clouds, a shift to northwesterly winds, and cooler temperatures. In the wake of tonight's cold front, Saturday will be cooler but still have near normal temperatures, with highs in the mid to upper 30s and a northwest breeze.
(Today and tonight) The potent upper level low that has resulted in beneficial rainfall for much of West Central Texas will track across the area this morning, then across north central Texas this afternoon and evening. As the low tracks northeast across the region, rain chances will decrease from southwest to northeast this morning. Most of the CAMs persist cloud cover on the back side of the low through at least mid afternoon, with cloud cover quickly decreasing from southwest to northeast late this afternoon and early this evening. The extensive cloud cover along with gusty west winds on the back side of the low should help to keep temperatures in the 40s through at least early this afternoon. Central and southern portions of the area may approach the lower to mid 50s, especially if we see some sunshine late this afternoon.
Anderson (Issued 348 PM CST Fri Nov 25 2022) Tonight through Saturday night: High pressure will slide through the Ohio River Valley tonight and the weather in southern WI will remain quiet and mild. A low pressure trough approaching from the Northern Plains will cause increasing west-southwest winds early Saturday morning and gusty southwest winds during the daylight hours. Clouds will start to fill into southern WI by late afternoon as low pressure tracks toward southern MO.
958 PM MST Fri Nov 25 2022 Broad upper ridging covers the western and north central CONUS, while a trough pushes into the Pacific NW. Upper ridge will flatten tonight as Pac NW trough comes ashore, and the cold front will begin crossing our CWA.
A narrow band of precipitation along a SW-NE oriented cold front will move through our area late tonight through early Saturday afternoon. VFR conditions deteriorating to MVFR/IFR between 26/09-26/12z KBKE-KBOI and then near sunrise KTWF/KJER region as low clouds and snow showers move through the area with the cold front. Winds shifting NW 10-15kts behind a cold front around 09z across eastern Oregon and 12z into KMYL/KBOI, then finally across KTWF region by sunrise.
Broad low amplitude troughing will approach this morning, crossing the state today. At the surface, a weak cold front will also move through. This will mean highs a bit cooler than yesterday but still around normal for this time of year, mainly in the mid to upper 30s. Clouds will be on the decrease tonight from west to east as transient low amplitude ridging starts to move in behind the departing trough. Any lingering fog should start to lift by late Sunday morning as the transient ridge axis moves through, placing us back into slight southwest flow aloft as broad troughing once again takes up residence across the northwestern US. Temperatures on Sunday will be similar to today with highs in the lower 30s northeast to the lower 40s southwest.
526 AM CST Sat Nov 26 2022 (Tonight through Sunday night) Surface cold front has pushed off the coast this morning with strong W-NW winds in its wake.
532 AM CST Sat Nov 26 2022 (Today and tonight) Potent upper level low centered near Pecos at 08z maintains an impressive satellite appearance with broad upper diffluence visible across most of the Big Country into the South Plains region early this morning. The low has now begun to accelerate ENE-ward, with the dry slot observed pivoting back over New Mexico as renewed midlevel moisture surges back into the region from the southeast. Surface temperatures remain above freezing across the majority of the forecast area, with only a few sites across the SW South Plains observed reaching or falling just below 0C overnight. The upper low will accelerate northeastward this afternoon, with precip rapidly ending west of I-27 by mid-afternoon.
534 AM CST Sat Nov 26 2022 (Today and tonight) A widespread rainfall event is underway thanks to a deepening upper cyclone, currently over west TX, and sufficient moisture. This low is expected to slowly slide east northeastward throughout the day ending up over the Red river around 00Z tonight.
542 AM CST Sat Nov 26 2022 (Today) Upper low currently centered for far SW TX will lift northeastward into the ArkLaTex region by early evening. Expansive precip shield currently across N TX will spread north and eastward ahead of the upper low with widespread rain expanding across the forecast area today.
405 AM MST Sat Nov 26 2022 Current surface map places cold front across northwest North Dakota into central Montana. Cold front continues to slide southward today, reaching northwest South Dakota/northeast Wyoming early this morning then moving through south central SoutH Dakota by early afternoon. With upper trof swinging through the area this afternoon/evening, forcing/marginal moisture may bring some light precipitation to northeast Wyoming/Black Hills/southwest South Dakota.
931 AM EST Sat Nov 26 2022 A mild day with sunshine is expected today with high pressure in place. Widespread rain is likely to return Sunday with the approach of a strong low pressure system. High clouds in advance of the approaching low pressure system will begin to spread over the Ohio Valley later today.
213 AM MST Sat Nov 26 2022 Current surface map places cold front across northwest North Dakota into central Montana. Cold front continues to slide southward today, reaching northwest South Dakota/northeast Wyoming early this morning then moving through south central SoutH Dakota by early afternoon. With upper trof swinging through the area this afternoon/evening, forcing/marginal moisture may bring some light precipitation to northeast Wyoming/Black Hills/southwest South Dakota.
530 AM CST Sat Nov 26 2022 Aside from the chance to see a few flurries/sprinkles along a crashing cold front throughout the day today, quiet weather is expected across the short term period. The main forecast challenge will be the degree of warming ahead of the cold front. As a closed low over the southern Plains makes an eastward jaunt, northward moisture flux will be limited. Temperatures will also remain relatively stagnant ahead of the front, with cooler air filtering in behind the front. As alluded to prior, cooler temperatures are expected moving into Sunday. Depending on the propagation speed of the cold front, some cloud cover may linger across northwestern and west central Minnesota, limiting the degree of overnight cooling.
550 AM EST Sat Nov 26 2022 Aviation Ensembles remain settled on the likelihood of two low-pressure systems affecting our area in the coming week: one on Sunday and one around Tue night / Wed morning.
(Today and tonight) A widespread rainfall event is underway thanks to a deepening upper cyclone, currently over west TX, and sufficient moisture. This low is expected to slowly slide east northeastward throughout the day ending up over the Red river around 00Z tonight.
(This evening through Sunday) Much quieter weather expected tonight and tomorrow, with cooler temperatures overnight. As the upper low continues to move eastward this afternoon, skies have been clearing from west to east. lower 30s in the low- lying areas.
203 PM EST Sat Nov 26 2022 High pressure will shift eastward tonight as low pressure lifts northeastward from the southern plains. Quiet weather continues in the near term with high pressure sliding eastward this evening. Strong closed low in the southern plains will eject northeastward and become positively tilted with time as it makes it's approach on Sunday. 20 inches, which is anomalously high for the region in late November, will result in a period of efficient precipitation, especially closer to the low itself in Ohio.
High pressure will remain over Arizona through the weekend, with relatively warmer temperatures and lighter breezes expected.
Also lowered the high temperatures for the day for the entire CWA based on current warming trends.
A largely dry cold front will cross tonight into Sunday and will possibly bring a little bit of freezing drizzle to the South Shore. After the morning hours, a seeder feeder scenario sets us to add ice to the low level warm clouds; however, there is quite the dry layer between these features and the ice nuclei may not make it into the lower clouds. Have continued to indicate a slight chance for freezing drizzle along the South Shore in the forecast package.
High pressure will remain over Arizona through Sunday with relatively warmer temperatures and light breezes expected. Light southwesterly winds and warmer temperatures are expected for Sunday as we remain under high pressure.
1237 PM EST Sat Nov 26 2022 Aviation Ensembles remain settled on the likelihood of two low-pressure systems affecting our area in the coming week: one on Sunday and one around Tue night / Wed morning.
The pattern responsible for the near record warmth is a strong mid-upper level low over southwestern Texas, a dip in the jet stream east of the Outer Banks of North Carolina associated with a frontal system, and strong, deep ridging aloft with the center of this ridge near west-central Cuba. This ridge is being pinched by the aforementioned two systems causing heights to rise over the Florida Keys and keeping the region in weak anticyclonic flow. A weakening cold front will stall and dissipate over Central Florida today and tonight, with high pressure building quickly across the Southeastern states.
Higher snow amounts of brighter white on visible satellite can clearly be seen to follow ridgelines and other terrain features and it is easily noted where snow abruptly stops in lower elevations.
1223 PM MST Sat Nov 26 2022 Pleasant weather conditions will continue across the region through the rest of the holiday weekend under weak high pressure.
Wind should be 15 to 25 with gusts to 35 mph in the lower elevations, higher along ridges and mountain tops. For the high temperatures, there is a cooling trend with temperatures in the Snake River plain struggling to exceed 20 degrees, especially the north end of the plain.
The forecast was adjusted to reflect this dry notch rotating around the upper low. (Today and tonight) A widespread rainfall event is underway thanks to a deepening upper cyclone, currently over west TX, and sufficient moisture. This low is expected to slowly slide east northeastward throughout the day ending up over the Red river around 00Z tonight.