Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 69 82 70 85 / 70 80 80 60 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 67 78 68 82 / 70 80 80 70 OAK RIDGE, TN 69 79 69 82 / 70 80 80 70 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 66 78 66 78 / 60 80 80 70.
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH TOMORROW. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EASTWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A MONSOONAL PATTERN DEVELOPING THAT WILL INCREASE CHANCES FOR HEAVY RAIN.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDED ACROSS KANSAS TO THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BUT IS BEGINNING TO TRANSITION SLOWLY WEST. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SLIDES IN FROM THE NORTHEAST. A LOW PRESSURE OVER EAST COLORADO SHOULD BECOME DOMINANT TONIGHT. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES THAN LAST NIGHT. THE RIDGE IN THE WESTERN CONUS WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD BRINGING DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS TO THE HIGH PLAINS.
HIGHS THURSDAY SHOULD BE AROUND FIVE DEGREES COOLER THAN NORMAL WITH SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.
153 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015 HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING INTO THE AREA WHICH WILL KEEP MOST OF OUR AREA DRY INTO THE WEEKEND. MOTHER NATURE LOOKS TO HAVE FINALLY TURNED OFF THE FAUCET ON THE AREA AS THE FOCUS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS SHIFTS WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA COURTESY OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. SOME MIXING WILL TAKE PLACE THROUGH THE MORNING AS TEMPS CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S FOR MOST SPOTS. THIS PATTERN ALOFT AND ASSOCIATED EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD KEEP THETA-E TROUGH IN PLACE LOCALLY WITH NO INSTABILITY BENEATH A MODERATE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION NOTED AROUND 800MB.
STRATUS IS BEGINNING TO MIX OUT ACROSS THE LOWLANDS AND SUNSHINE HAS BEEN OBSERVED ACROSS SE OH WHERE DRIER AIR HAS FILTERED IN. THINKING THE LOW STRATUS REFORMS ACROSS S ZONES AND WITH A LIGHT NE LLVL WIND.
THE PERSISTENT TROUGH OVER THE AREA HAS PRODUCED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. THURSDAY WILL HAVE EVEN LOWER POPS AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS.
OVERALL HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ARE NOT OVERLY EXCITED ABOUT THIS POTENTIAL WHICH MAKES SENSE GIVEN MID-UPR RIDGING STILL IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION AND GENERALLY HAVE KEPT POPS RELATIVELY LOW THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. THE HIGH CENTER AND RIDGE AXIS WILL RETREAT WEST- SOUTHWEST THROUGH THURSDAY ACROSS NM. TEMPS WILL BE COOLER THURSDAY DUE TO RETREATING RIDGE AND ABUNDANT CIRRUS DECK FORECAST ACROSS THE AREA. THE PANHANDLES REMAIN IN THAT IN BETWEEN AREA WITH AN UPPER HIGH OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U. AND A TROUGH TO OUR EAST.
BUT ODDS FAVOR SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE NORTH DUE TO EITHER EXTENSIVE CLOUDS AND/OR COOLER AIR NORTH OF THE FRONT. OVERALL THEME IS STILL A BREAKDOWN OF WESTERN RIDGE.
AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTNDD NWD FROM THE LOW THROUGH CNTRL NEB INTO CNTRL SD. SHORT TERM MODELS DO INDICATE SOME INCREASE IN INSTABILITY ALONG THE INVERTED TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FROM CNTRL SD INTO CNTRL NEB WHERE AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG OF MLCAPE IS EXPECTED. WILL INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE POP IN THE NORTHWEST THIS EVENING IN CASE SOMETHING DOES GET GOING ALONG THE TROUGH AND SLIDES S/SEWD INTO THE NW CWA. THE PATTERN REMAINS MESSY INTO THE DAY ON FRI WITH WEAK TROUGHING OVER THE AREA. BUT MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE A BIT WARMER ON SAT AND THUS INSTABILITY IS A BIT WEAKER. THE NEXT MORE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER SYSTEM FOR THE AREA LOOKS TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND DRIVES A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE DAKOTAS AND INTO THE FA ON SUN NIGHT.
A COLD FRONT IS ANALYZED FROM THE LOW TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST TOWARDS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WITH A RIDGE ANCHORED ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND A TROUGH DRIFTING TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND. OVERNIGHT THE COLD FRONT WILL WORK SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. WITH COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT AND MOISTURE DIMINISHED BY THE FIRST WAVE. KEPT POPS ON THE LOWER SIDE AS COVERAGE MAY BE MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED IN NATURE.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER INTO THURSDAY.
314 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015 ALOFT - A STOUT RIDGE SPRAWLED OUT FROM THE GREAT BASIN/ 4 CORNERS REGION. TROUGHING WAS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WITH AN AXIS FROM JAMES BAY TO THE SOUTHEAST U. AND A RIDGE FROM THE ATLANTIC REACHED ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND THE FLORIDA KEYS TO THE SOUTH-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGED ACROSS CENTRAL FL TO MOST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE WESTERN RIDGE REMAINS CENTERED IN PLACE AS IT SPREADS OUT FROM THE PACIFIC COAST TO SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE EASTERN TROUGINESS RESIDES IN PLACE WITH SHORT WAVE TROUGHS ROTATING THROUGH IT/S BASE. THE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES FROM THE ATLANTIC INTO THE GULF. DEEP LAYER RIDGING.
LEE-SIDE TROUGHING AND UPPER TROUGHING SUPPORTS A CONTINUED RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS DISPLAY JUST ISOLATED COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON. UPPER TROUGH DEEPEN INTO THE CENTRAL GULF STATES RENEWING AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE OVER THE AREA. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE AROUND 90 AND INTO THE LOWER 90S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN STATES AND GLFMEX WILL BEGIN TO FORCE THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NORTHWARD. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS GENERALLY 90 TO 95 DEGREES AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
540 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015 WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE AS IT DROPS SOUTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH THIS EVENING.
308 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
CALIFORNIA IS BETWEEEN A 595DM DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND A 581DM LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA IN A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME MONSOONAL PATTERN.
1235 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015 LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS OVER THE WEST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. LATEST INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS OVER MUCH OF MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN FROM UPSTREAM SHOWER/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND THE HIGH PLAINS. 00Z GFS/NAM ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND THE MOVEMENT OF THE INDIVIDUAL IMPULSES OVER-TOPPING THE RIDGE AXIS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY INTO TONIGHT. COOLER AIR FILTERS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
330 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LINGERS TO THE WEST THROUGH THURSDAY.
114 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015 UNSETTLED/ACTIVE AND COOLER WEATHER IS UPON US. WITH UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED IN THE GREAT LAKES. TOP OF THE RIDGE WAS FLATTENING A BIT. RIDGE AXIS AT 850MB EXTENDED FROM EASTERN OK/EASTERN KS THROUGH THE IA/NE BORDER AND EASTERN DAKOTAS.
405 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015 WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE AS IT DROPS SOUTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH THIS EVENING.
SOUNDINGS SHOW A LOT OF DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS AND.
NLY WINDS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS EARLY THIS AFTN ACROSS THE REGION WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE NRN PLAINS. THERMAL PROFILES SUGGESTED TEMPS WILL BE NEAR OR EVEN A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY.
217 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION TODAY.
136 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015 A COLD FRONT NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION THIS MORNING.
SOME STORMS WILL ROLL OFF THE HIGH TERRAIN AND TRACK SOUTHEAST. BUT THESE WILL BE MOSTLY RESERVED FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS (MOSTLY ABOVE 6K-7K FEET). THE HIGH CENTERED OVER WEST- CENTRAL UTAH FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS IS PROGGED TO SHIFT TO THE WEST- NORTHWEST DURING THE DAY SETTLING OVER CENTRAL NEVADA BY DAYS END. INCREASED CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL BRING A SMALL MEASURE OF RELIEF FROM THE HEAT WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS A FEW DEGREES COOLER (RELATIVE TERM) THAN OVER THE PAST TWO WEEKS.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER UTAH AND NEVADA THROUGH THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
348 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015 UPPER LEVEL RIDGE HAS PROVIDED ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE TODAY TO KEEP CONVECTION AT BAY.
625 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015 ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING BEHIND THIS AFTERNOON/S COLD FRONT. IT WILL REMAIN PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY WEATHER RETURN FOR THURSDAY. WEAK COLD FRONT HAS CLEARED THE AREA AND HAS TAKEN MOST OF THE SHOWERS WITH IT. HI/S THU WILL ONCE AGAIN BE BLO NRML UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE NW FLOW AND BROAD UPR TROF.
600 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE IN NORTHERN OKLAHOMA TOMORROW.
A COLD FRONT MOVE INTO AND STALL OVER OUR REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME CONVECTION THAT FIRES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WESTERN NC WILL DRIFT EAST-SE AND POSSIBLY MAKE IT INTO THE YADKIN/PEE DEE RIVER VALLEY AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. BULK OF GUIDANCE SUGGEST BEST FORCING (THOUGH NOT OVERWHELMING) WILL OCCUR IN VICINITY OF THE 850-700MB TROUGH. WILL LEAD TO A SIMILAR TEMP GRADIENT WITH AFTERNOON TEMPS IN THE LOW/MID 80S NORTH WHERE CLOUDS AND PRECIP WILL BE MORE EXTENSIVE.
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE MUCH LESS ON THURSDAY COMPARED TO TODAY DUE TO SLIGHTLY LOWER PWATS AND AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDING ACROSS S TX FROM THE N. THE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD KEEP PRECIP OUT OF THE NE CWA. THU HIGH TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE WARMER THAN TODAY DUE TO THE HIGH PRESSURE/DRIER AIR.
147 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015 MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS SLOWLY SHIFTING TO THE EAST ALLOWING DRIER AIR ALOFT TO WORK ITS WAY ACROSS THE STATE. AS NIGHT FALLS AND LOW LEVEL INVERSION FORMS AGAIN LOW STRATUS DECK WILL LIKELY FORM BUT ERODE TOWARDS 12Z AS DRIER AIR WORKS ITS WAY THROUGH THE LOW LEVELS. ONE LAST ARTIFACT CAST OFF FROM THE CLOSED LOW LAST WEEKEND. WITH READINGS TOPPING OUT IN THE LOWER 70S FOR MOST AREAS.
ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN QUITE MOIST AND ROUNDS OF CONVECTION WILL AFFECT THE REGION AS DISTURBANCES ROTATE THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH OVER EASTERN US. A PREVAILING LONGWAVE UPPER-TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND A VERY MOIST ENVIRONMENT CONDUCIVE FOR HIGH CHANCES FOR HEAVY PRECIPITATION INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
THE LOWER LEVEL LAYER OF STRATUS HAS BROKEN UP SUBSTANTIALLY SINCE THIS MORNING BUT AS THIS HAPPENED MID-LEVEL CLOUDS FILLED IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. AND THE DRIER AIR WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO BE A TOUCH COOLER THAN THE PAST FEW NIGHTS.
KEPT WITH THE HIGHER QPF SW / LOWER NE DEPICTION GOING.
402 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015 ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING BEHIND THIS AFTERNOON/S COLD FRONT. IT WILL REMAIN PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY WEATHER RETURN FOR THURSDAY. HI/S THU WILL ONCE AGAIN BE BLO NRML UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE NW FLOW AND BROAD UPR TROF.
1147 AM MDT WED JUL 1 2015 A WEAK COLD FRONT IS PUSHING SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER.
LITTLE CHANGE IN THERMAL PROFILES BUT WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY MINIMUMS MAY BE A BIT WARMER. THINNER SMOKE SHIELD TODAY ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO RISE A BIT WARMER HOWEVER APPEARS TO BE THICKER SMOKE LAYER UPSTREAM WHICH MAY HOLD TEMPERATURES LOWER TOMORROW.
SO HAVE GONE WITH THE HIGHEST POPS LATE TONIGHT. PERIOD BEGINS WITH DECENT AGREEMENT IN THE OVERALL TROUGH STILL SET UP ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS AND STRONG RIDGE IN THE WESTERN CONUS. THEN TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD THE PATTERN LOOKS TO SHIFT FROM LONG WAVE TROUGH TO WEAKER TROUGHING ACROSS THE EAST WHILE RIDGING BREAKS DOWN IN THE WESTERN US.
An upper level ridge will be centered across the Intermountain West, with an upper level trough moving across the northern Plains then into Great Lakes Region late Thursday and into the weekend. This will send a cold front into Oklahoma, stalling somewhere near to just north of the Red River. Showers and thunderstorms are forecast to develop along and north of this boundary, but the upper level ridge is forecast to dominate most of West Central Texas, keeping the bulk of convection to our north.
/ISSUED 327 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015/ NO MAJOR CHANGES ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS AN UPPER RIDGE TO OUR WEST DOMINATES THE WEATHER PATTERN. THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE U. WITH OUR REGION ON THE EASTERN FRINGE OF THE RIDGE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, THE DOOR IS OPEN FOR MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES TO MOVE SOUTH, AS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY MORNING.
THERE WILL BE SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING ACROSS THE BOUNDARY KEEPING THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN OUR FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PIVOT OVER THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT.
Low pressure over Kansas today will cross Missouri tomorrow with its surface front reaching east into the Ohio Valley.
246 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015 ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING BEHIND THIS AFTERNOON/S COLD FRONT. IT WILL REMAIN PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY WEATHER RETURN FOR THURSDAY. HI/S THU WILL ONCE AGAIN BE BLO NRML UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE NW FLOW AND BROAD UPR TROF.
321 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015 HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING INTO THE AREA WHICH WILL KEEP MOST OF OUR AREA DRY INTO THE WEEKEND. LEAVING OUR AREA UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE.
Warm front or the old outflow boundary has lifted northeast through the KC Metro area, which the operational models had depicted further south.
305 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015 LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEPART EASTWARD AWAY FROM MICHIGAN AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES REGION THIS AFTERNOON.
CURRENT H5 ANALYSIS DEPICTS A LONGWAVE TROUGH STILL SITUATED OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. WITH A RIDGE SITUATED OVER THE WESTERN CONUS.
TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 ALONG THE NORTHERN KEYS TO THE LOWER 90S ELSEWHERE.
THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CONSISTENT WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S. UPPER TROUGH DEEPEN INTO THE CENTRAL GULF STATES RENEWING AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE OVER THE AREA. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE AROUND 90 AND INTO THE LOWER 90S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN STATES AND GLFMEX WILL BEGIN TO FORCE THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NORTHWARD. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS GENERALLY 90 TO 95 DEGREES AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER KANSAS WILL TRACK SLOWLY EASTWARD INTO MISSOURI TONIGHT. COOLER/DRIER AIR WILL GRADUALLY FILTER IN FROM THE NORTH OVERNIGHT. BROAD UPPER TROUGH TO BE PREVALENT ACROSS THE EASTERN U. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR EARLY JULY.
SE OF THE TROUGH. VERY MOIST AIR IS ENTRENCHED PRIMARILY SE OF THE TURNPIKE AS EVIDENCED BY SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 70S. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE MOVING SE ACROSS SOUTHEAST KS WHERE TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER-MID 80S RESIDE WHILE ACROSS CENTRAL & SOUTH-CENTRAL KS 90S DOMINATE.
240 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015 WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE AS IT DROPS SOUTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH THIS EVENING.
357 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015 ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE ACROSS THE AREA WHILE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PERSISTS INLAND. THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WITH A PIEDMONT TROUGH SITUATED INLAND. MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
CLOUDS WILL DECREASE WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. ATLC RIDGE AXIS REMAINS NEAR TO JUST NORTH OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION INTO LATE WEEK. TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 90S ALONG THE COAST TO MID 90S OVER THE INTERIOR WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. THE RESULTING TROFING ACRS THE ERN CONUS WILL KEEP THE ATLC RIDGE AXIS MEANDERING ACRS THE CNTRL/SRN FL PENINSULA WITH SWLY FLOW PREVAILING THRU THE COLUMN. ATLC RIDGE AXIS WILL MEANDER OVER THE CNTRL/SRN FL PENINSULA.
1136 AM MDT WED JUL 1 2015 RADAR LOOP SUGGESTS WEAK COLD FRONT JUST ABOUT TO THE NM BORDER AS OF 0930Z. UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO RETREAT SLOWLY WESTWARD WHILE WEAK BUT PERSISTENT UPSLOPE FLOW GRADUALLY DEEPENS ON THE PLAINS. MAX TEMPS TODAY SHOULD RUN A COUPLE DEGF COOLER THAN TUE WITH FALLING HEIGHTS/UPSLOPE FLOW/INCREASING CLOUDS.
A COLD FRONT WAS PASSING THROUGH SOUTHWEST KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON, WHICH WAS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING THE CENTRAL PLAINS FROM THE NORTHWEST. LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH THURSDAY, THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER ON THURSDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.
137 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015 MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE FAIR WEATHER FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. AS THIS AREA SHIFTS EAST THIS MORNING, WITH IT WILL GO THE HIGHER PWAT VALUES AND THREAT FOR HEAVIER RAIN. THE COMBINATION OF A COLD FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL COMBINE WITH DIURNAL HEATING TO PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS/T-STORMS BY THIS AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY FROM NORTHERN PA NORTH.
SO HAVE GONE WITH THE HIGHEST POPS LATE TONIGHT. ITS POSSIBLE STRATUS COULD BUILD DOWN ONTO THE RIDGES. CREATING SOME POCKETS OF DENSE FOG FOR AIRPORTS ON THE RIDGES.
121 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015 AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN, CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS BEEN REDUCED. /ISSUED 423 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015/ HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE TO MID LEVELS AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
HAVE DRASTICALLY LOWERED THE LOWS TONIGHT. THIS TROUGH WILL TRAVEL A BIT FURTHER SOUTHWEST THAN TODAYS WAVE PER 01.
319 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015 A DEEP EASTERLY FLOW HAS SET UP ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AS A RIDGE BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT.
HIGH CLOUDS ARE PUSHING AROUND THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE AND A FEW FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS ARE DEVELOPING ON TOP OF THE MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER. BETTER CHANCES APPEAR TO BE LATE TOMORROW INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS A BIT FURTHER WEST AND A WEAK FRONT PUSHES INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. THEN WENT A FEW DEGREES COOLER FOR HIGHS TOMORROW THINKING THAT CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AND THE RIDGE SLIDING WEST A BIT ALLOWS HEIGHTS/THICKNESS VALUES TO FALL OVER THE AREA.
That threat should end quickly with the increased moisture and warmer air coming in though.
545 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015 A WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT IS DISSIPATING AS IT DROPS SOUTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA THIS EVENING.
224 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
06Z SUBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHWEST NE WITH A WARM FRONT DRAPED E/SE TO JUST SOUTH OF I-70 CORRIDOR IN WESTERN MO. LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WAS NOTED OVER THE GREAT LAKES PROVIDING DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS FROM MN THROUGH WI AND MI. LOW LEVEL FLOW N/NE IS USHERING IN SOME OF THIS COOLER DRIER AIR INTO NORTHERN CWA WHERE DEWPTS HAVE LOWERED INTO MID/UPPER 50S. PT-MOCLDY SKIES AND LINGERING SMOKE LAYER FROM CANADIAN WILDFIRES WILL KEEP HIGHS A BIT COOLER FROM YSTDY WITH MAINLY LOW/MID 70S ALTHOUGH FEW UPPER 70S POSSIBLE WITH ANY DURATION OF HAZY FILTERED SUNSHINE.
THE HIGH CENTER NORTH OF OUR AREA AND ORIENTATION OF THE ASSOCIATED RIDGE AXIS HAS BEEN EXTREMELY FAVORABLE FOR THE EASTERLY FLOW AND GREAT STORM STRUCTURE. STARTING TODAY THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN IS BEGINNING TO REORIENT THE RIDGE FROM NEVADA THROUGH NEW MEXICO WITH OUR FLOW GAINING AN INCREASINGLY DOMINANT SOUTHERLY COMPONENT.
448 AM EDT SUN JUN 7 2015 LATEST GUIDANCE AND RECENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF.
532 AM CDT SUN JUN 7 2015 A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT WILL BE RETROGRADING WESTWARD TODAY COULD RESULT IN VERY ISOLATED AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF N LA/S AR TODAY. /ISSUED 424 AM CDT SUN JUN 7 2015/ UPPER RIDGING TO HOLD FIRM OVER SOUTHERN PLAINS THRU TODAY. WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT STILL TRYING TO ENTER AR. AS UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO SHIFT SOUTH. PEAKING BY MID WEEK WITH HIGH END CHANCE POPS ACROSS AT LEAST NORTH LA PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER AREA BY THEN. AS THIS LOW SHIFTS EAST. AS THIS LOW DRIFTS SLOWLY TOWARDS THE GULF. PUTTING AN END TO THE UNSEASONALLY HOT TEMPS SEEN PAST FEW DAYS IN ASSOCIATION WITH UPPER LVL RIDGING.
243 AM EDT SUN JUN 7 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SOUTH OF THE REGION TODAY.
310 AM EDT SUN JUN 7 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING BEFORE SLIDING OFFSHORE.
A TROUGH EXTENDS SOUTHWEST FROM LOW PRESSURE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND NORTHWEST KANSAS. STRONG HEATING AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 70S EXTEND ACROSS THE AREA WITH MODEST SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. NICELY CURVED HODOGRAPHS WITH IMPRESSIVE DIRECTIONAL SHEAR VALUES IN THE LOWEST 3 KM WOULD SUGGEST A TORNADO THREAT INTITIALLY THEN WE TRANSITION INTO A FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL ALSO BRING HEAVY RAIN THREAT SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH WIND/HAIL THREAT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE CWA THROUGHOUT SUNDAY. DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK AS UPPER RIDGING MOVES OVERHEAD. TSRA ACTIVITY OCCURRING ALONG A COLD FRONT ADVANCING SEWD THRU IA/NEB.
HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE FAIRLY CLOSE TO WHAT WAS OBSERVED YESTERDAY - IN THE LOW TO MID 90S - WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE AVERAGE BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES.
1039 PM EDT SAT JUN 6 2015 HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERNIGHT.
HAVE NOTICED WITH THE TRENDS THAT WE HAVE BEEN RUNNING A LITTLE COOLER THAN GUIDANCE THE PAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS AND AGAIN TONIGHT.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVING INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL INDUCE A WEAKNESS IN THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ON MONDAY RESULTING IN SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.
1243 AM EDT SUN JUN 7 2015 LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES UNDER HIGH PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE CHILLY READINGS ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT AND CRESTS OVER THE REGION SUNDAY.
ALTHOUGH CLOUD COVER HAS LIMITED DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND CAPE STILL HAVE SOME CONCERNS ABOUT DEVELOPMENT ALONG AND AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT SO KEPT SOME HIGHER POPS GOING ACROSS THE SOUTH. MONDAY SHOULD BE QUIET WITH WEAK RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE AREA.
1222 AM EDT SUN JUN 7 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL INTO SUNDAY. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL RETURN WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CONUS IS EXPECTED TO KEEP DRY WEATHER THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY. SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE RETURN IS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
RIDGING ALOFT STRENGTHENS THROUGH SUNDAY. WITH WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER CONTINUING INTO MONDAY.
626 AM EDT SUN JUN 7 2015 HIGH PRESSURE TODAY. A COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATE MONDAY.
1035 PM PDT SAT JUN 6 2015 Temperatures this weekend will be much warmer than average with afternoon readings in the upper 80s to mid 90s.
Strong to A cold front which is currently located over Nebraska will slowly move southeastward today. But will not rule out a brief tornado or two because of the low level jet overnight across the Missouri Ozarks with winds at 5K feet will be about 40 knots with the low level jet. The storms will be near the Highway 54 corridor by midnight and the I-44 corridor by 3 am and slowly weakening.
1246 AM EDT SUN JUN 7 2015 A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH IN ITS WAKE SUNDAY.
320 AM EDT SUN JUN 7 2015 HIGH PRESSURE TODAY. A COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATE MONDAY.
LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WILL WEAKEN THROUGH MONDAY. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL DRAW MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE BLANCA.
321 AM EDT SUN JUN 7 2015 HIGH PRESSURE BOTH SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTH TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPRESS CONVECTION. WITH LESSER CHANCES TO THE EAST AND NORTH CLOSER TO THE RIDGE. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER/MID 80S CLOSER TO THE COAST WITH LOWER/MID 90S INLAND.
119 AM EDT SUN JUN 7 2015 HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING EAST OF THE OHIO VALLEY WILL TURN WINDS TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION ON SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES AND MOVING EAST WILL TRAIL A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH A ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED.
252 AM MDT SUN JUN 7 2015 UPPER FLOW WILL BE SOUTHWEST TODAY AND THEN TURN NORTHWEST TONIGHT BEHIND THE NORTHERN PLAINS TROUGH.
MADE SOME SMALL ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THE WARMER TEMPERATURES.