Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
A large upper level trof will begin to dive southward across the northern Rockies area today. Downstream and across our area, lee cyclogenesis is expected across the high plains. There should be plenty of high level clouds today ahead of the approaching trof, so this may influence highs from being as warm as they were yesterday. This will usher in the passage of a strong cold front during the overnight. As far as precipitation is concerned, kept the highest pops in the southeast counties.
Outside of urban areas, near freezing temperatures are expected in the San Joaquin Valley tonight.
229 AM CST Wed Nov 23 2022 One more dry and seasonably mild day before cooler and somewhat damp weather moves in for Thanksgiving Day. Deeper albeit modest low level moisture will advect northward into the area today ahead of the developing upper trof which will dig southward across the northern/central Rockies. Some patchy dense cirrus and patchy ground fog will precede the lower cloud deck this morning with the stratus increasing during the afternoon. So despite the milder start to the day, the clouds will likely temper the diurnal rise with highs a tad cooler than yesterday. The surface cold front moving into central Kansas tonight will encounter a very moist low level airmass with weak lift downstream of the digging upper trof/low should support some drizzle and/or very light rain tonight.
CMiller (Issued 109 PM CST Tue Nov 22 2022) Tonight through Wednesday night: Quiet weather will persist through Wednesday across southern Wisconsin under the influence of high pressure centered over the east-central United States.
The upper level low will deepen substantially due to upstream anti cyclonic wave breaking.
An associated cold frontal boundary will produce breezy winds in the west this afternoon before expanding eastward tonight. A little freezing rain, perhaps in the form of freezing drizzle, isn't entirely out of the question as soundings suggest there may be a brief loss of ice in the DGZ.
317 AM EST Wed Nov 23 2022 High pressure will allow for dry conditions through the day on Thanksgiving.
1245 AM EST Wed Nov 23 2022 Current forecast is on track with a rather large ridge to valley temperature split under clear skies, light winds, and with low dewpoints in place. This change made the zone forecast wording for Wayne change from lows in the mid 20s in valleys to lows in the lower 20s in valleys. With the highs departure, warm air advection will bring milder temperatures. Meanwhile, aloft, a zonal flow will begin to buckle, and ridging will move in from the west and pass over on Wednesday night. High clouds in advance of the next system will start to show up as the ridging aloft passes on Wednesday night. The period begins with southwest flow allowing for warmer temperatures to start the period.
1039 PM CST Tue Nov 22 2022 Weak upper level ridging will spread across the area tonight followed by a developing trough across the Northern and Central Rockies. A dry ground and warmer temperatures aloft should support highs a little warmer than today, so will aim for mostly lower to mid 50s ands mid to upper 40s in locations with an inch or so of snow on the ground. Model trends continue to point towards precipitation chances remaining to the south and west of the area as the developing trough digs more into the Central and Southern Plains and brings through little more than a wind shift and cool down for us.
328 AM EST Wed Nov 23 2022 High pressure and very dry air will cover the region through Thanksgiving.
Water vapor imagery highlights a mid to upper-level ridge to the southeast of the Keys, with dry and stable air spilling southwest across the Greater Antilles. The 00Z RAOBs sampled low level ridging across Florida and the Southeast US. Winds across the Florida Keys are from the east-northeast, with a little backing noted across portions of the Lower Keys due to the cooling Gulf side waters. The forecast calls for lows in the lower to mid 70s with very slight rain chances. High pressure initially over the Southeast United States will rotate to the northeast then southeast, ending up receding east into the western North Atlantic.
Most locations can expect to fall at or below freezing, with just a few areas of the southern valley staying just a few degrees above. Upper level zonal flow stays in place into Wednesday, with high pressure at the surface. 500mb flow then becomes more southwesterly as a trough and low develops over the southwest US and starts to move this way.
1156 PM EST Tue Nov 22 2022 Other than a brief period of minor MVFR fog early Wednesday morning, expect VFR conditions as dry, southwest flow around high pressure persists. Apart from an increase in midlevel clouds, little change to the sensible weather is expected for Mid and Southeast Michigan through the rest of the day owing to weak forcing and plenty of dry air in the lowest 12 kft. Temps tonight will be on the cooler side of normal but a touch milder than last night with readings in the 20s by early Wednesday.
319 AM EST Wed Nov 23 2022 High pressure centered over the Appalachia region will continue to drift into upstate New York and New England through the afternoon and evening. Return flow from the departing high will usher in warmer temperatures as 1000-850 mb mean T increases roughly +3C between 12Z-18Z. NBM and MOS guidance have had a very poor handle on temperature highs the past couple of days, favoring much cooler solutions. Given a warmer thermal low-level profile, will be forecasting highs to rise into the low to mid 50s for most locations outside of the Tri-Cities and northern Thumb. A ribbon of enhanced subsidence in the wake of a passing upper-level trough and column- wide dry air will support mostly sunny skies today.
1246 AM EST Wed Nov 23 2022 Dry, warm weather will continue through Thanksgiving under high pressure.
755 AM EST Wed Nov 23 2022 Sunny and seasonable weather will continue through Thanksgiving under high pressure.
Precipitation type has been mixed, with snow and freezing rain being reported across the region. With very cold ground temperatures, a glaze of ice on paved surfaces is expected for areas that get rain or freezing rain.
919 AM EST Wed Nov 23 2022 High pressure will allow for dry conditions through the day on Thanksgiving.
619 AM EST Wed Nov 23 2022 High pressure over the Ohio Valley slowly shifts to the New England States through Thursday.
328 AM CST Wed Nov 23 2022 KEY MESSAGES: - Slight chance of freezing drizzle Wednesday night. This cloud cover will bring a small chance of drizzle or freezing drizzle across eastern MN and west-central WI late tonight/early Thursday morning. Forecast soundings are saturated but an ideal drizzle/freezing drizzle scenario would have a deeper layer of saturation. However, any freezing drizzle could have travel impacts on Thanksgiving morning.
On Thursday, temperatures will start to warm up towards the 70's as the coastal trough dissipates.
These conditions warm us up a few degrees, with highs forecast to reach the low to mid 70s for much of the CWA.
The drizzle is expected to move east and south of the area by early afternoon, but the low clouds will likely stick around through Thursday. The rain should exit the terminals by late morning, but the low clouds will stick around through Thursday morning.
Temperatures today will be similar to yesterday for the Big Country, but a little warmer than yesterday in our central and southern counties. An upper trough, currently over the northern part of the Intermountain West, will dive south-southeast into the central Rockies this afternoon, and then dig south into the southern Rockies tonight with a closed low developing over far northern or northeastern New Mexico by 6 AM Thursday. This to occur as an upper ridge over the far western CONUS builds north.
Slightly warmer temperatures are expected today as highs climb into the 30s across most of the area, and near 40 degrees in portions of northwest Minnesota and far southeastern North Dakota. Southerly to southwesterly winds bring warmer air into the region today.
416 AM EST Wed Nov 23 2022 Dry, warm weather will continue through Thanksgiving under high pressure.
The incoming weak low and an upper trough could bring some light sprinkles or flurries across parts of central SD Thanksgiving morning. Max Ts will be a bit cooler in the upper trough and behind the sfc cold front on Thursday. Overall flow pattern per GEFS/ECMWF ensembles indicate a positive tilted trough continuing to push east(and a cutoff low forming over the southern U. S) with a ridge moving in from the west.
This will take most of the precipitation associated with the system southward, but still may get a little over eastern Montana later today with behind the 700mb trof. Precipitation type is still questionable this early this morning with cold pavement and other surfaces supporting the potential for freezing rain, but in general warming air temperatures ahead of the trof will support rain. Behind the trof as the airmass cools should see a transition to snow. Winds will be increasing as any lingering boundary layer inversion mixes out and with pressure rises behind the trof, but with the strongest portion of the system developing well to the south, winds not looking quite strong enough to support an Advisory.
Currently - Broad high pressure over the southeastern United States is generating light northeasterly breezes across the Keys and surrounding waters this evening. Forecast - Over the next 24 hours, the previously mentioned ridge will consolidate over the eastern United States. Over the following several days, the previously mentioned ridge will become repositioned from the eastern Gulf of Mexico, across Florida, and out into the open Atlantic. Drier air in the lower to mid levels, along with weak lower level inhibition and relatively weak flow will keep rain chances slight heading into the weekend.
This ridge will continue to weaken through the short term with light NE-E winds today becoming more E-SE on Thursday and increasing to 5- 10kts as a result. WSW upper flow will become more SW on Thursday as a piece of energy breaks off over the Rockies, digs, and is expected to become a closed low over CO/NM early Thursday.
458 AM CST Wed Nov 23 2022 (Today) Current temperatures are in the low to upper 30s throughout the TN Valley, but are expected to jump up to the mid to upper 60s this afternoon! Our normal maximum high temperatures for this time of year are in the upper 50s the lower 60s, so this will put us above-normal.
At the surface, a surface front extended front the northern Plains into the Great Lakes with a trough over the Great Plains. High pressure was centered over West Virginia with a ridge extending southwestward into the Mid South. This will change tonight as the HREF continues to show that the trough currently of the Pacific Northwest digging south across the Rockies and becoming closed off by tomorrow morning. The best chances are still expected on Thanksgiving day into Thursday night as there remains decent agreement between the HREF and GFS/NAM that an upper trough and an attendant cold front will move across the area. While there will be more clouds today than yesterday, 850mb temperatures are expected to be slightly warmer, so have gone with similar highs.
524 AM CST Wed Nov 23 2022 Key Messages: - Above average temps likely through the weekend with highs in the upper 30s to as high as the low 50s.
554 AM EST Wed Nov 23 2022 High pressure will allow for dry conditions through the day on Thanksgiving.
The rain should exit the terminals by late morning, but the low clouds will stick around through Thursday morning.
523 AM CST Wed Nov 23 2022 KEY MESSAGES: - Slight chance of freezing drizzle Wednesday night. This cloud cover will bring a small chance of drizzle or freezing drizzle across eastern MN and west-central WI late tonight/early Thursday morning. Forecast soundings are saturated but an ideal drizzle/freezing drizzle scenario would have a deeper layer of saturation. However, any freezing drizzle could have travel impacts on Thanksgiving morning.
With plenty of sunshine, a quiet weather day is ahead as high temperatures warm a couple of degrees compared to yesterday into the low to mid-60's areawide.
925 AM EST Wed Nov 23 2022 High pressure over the Ohio Valley slowly shifts to the New England States through Thursday.
(Today) Current temperatures are in the low to upper 30s throughout the TN Valley, but are expected to jump up to the mid to upper 60s this afternoon! Our normal maximum high temperatures for this time of year are in the upper 50s the lower 60s, so this will put us above-normal.
1224 PM EST Wed Nov 23 2022 High pressure over the Ohio Valley slowly shifts to the New England States through Thursday.
Drying trend through Thursday as high pressure builds.
At the surface, high pressure continues to pull towards Maine. Aloft our flow will return to deep southwesterly flow as an upper level closed low to our west digs over southeastern NM.
A 500 millibar wave riding through in the northern stream will aid in vertical motion as well as the lower level forcing with the surface/850 trough axes.
Temperatures will fall into the middle 20s to lower 30s over most of the forecast area, so freezing fog will also be a threat. In addition to the previously-mentioned fog/freezing fog concerns, there is potential for black ice formation as dew points in the upper 20s and lower 30s advect over road surfaces that are expected to drop into the upper teens and 20s. Fortunately, by the time the precipitation arrives, air and road temperatures should be above freezing.
Temperatures are in the upper 70s, with dewpoints in the lower 70s. Weather analysis this morning revealed: a high pressure system in the southeastern U. Northeasterly winds will continue throughout the day thanks to the aforementioned high pressure system. Broad high pressure over the Southeast United States will rotate northeastward then eastward, ending up elongating east into the western North Atlantic.
1232 PM EST Wed Nov 23 2022 High pressure will allow for dry conditions through the day on Thanksgiving.
141 PM MST Wed Nov 23 2022 The cold front continues to move south across the state today, with snow spreading across the northern mountains, and sweeping down the I-25 corridor.
No surprises expected as the short term forecast is still on track with increasing cloud cover later today with much warmer overnight lows and Thanksgiving Day highs. Seasonably warmer today with a mostly clear sky as high pressure begins to shift eastward. Discussion: Temperatures are expected to be several degrees warmer today as high pressure shifts eastward with southerly flow beginning to return. Upper ridging will be across the region ahead of an amplifying trough across the Southern Great Plains. Southerly boundary layer flow tonight along with an upper level jet streak will bring an increase in high clouds and warmer overnight low temperatures. We should see some significant variation in temperatures across the region with higher elevations being warmer than sheltered valleys.
158 PM EST Wed Nov 23 2022 High pressure brings dry weather and mild afternoons into Thanksgiving.
Ample insolation, warming low level temps, and relatively light winds are contributing to overachieving temps, reaching above to well above freezing for most locations. In particular, the low albedo of the MN trees is helping push temps well into the 40s (some near 50) which is near or above NBM's 95th percentile, even within Novembers low sun angle (neat!). A cold front currently moving through western ND trackable via sfc obs and trailing stratus via satellite imagery will continue to move east toward our area. This cold front will bring a chance for brief and light wintry mix of snow, ice pellets, and freezing rain, mainly north of US Hwy 2 tonight into Thursday morning (slightly better chances within northwest MN). However, the non-zero chance for freezing liquid does warrant that it be monitored.
The front further washes out by Thursday as high pressure over the mid-Atlantic region ridges southwest over Florida and into the Gulf of Mexico.
Temperature trends may be slightly warmer than previous forecast, however, generally within a degree or two. Snow, with brief freezing rain, could then move from west to east tonight. An associated cold frontal boundary will produce breezy winds in the west this afternoon before expanding eastward tonight. A little freezing rain, perhaps in the form of freezing drizzle, isn't entirely out of the question as soundings suggest there may be a brief loss of ice in the DGZ.
143 PM MST Wed Nov 23 2022 The upper level trough is centered over the Rockies, pushing clouds into northeastern WY and the western Dakotas. At the surface, the cold front is moving through the CWA, producing breezy northwest winds behind. Temperatures range from the 30s across northeastern WY and the Black Hills to the low 60s across south central SD.
1134 AM CST Wed Nov 23 2022 (Rest of Today) Surface analysis this morning shows very little change from the past several hours as a ridge, centered to our northeast, remains in place. The ridge axis generally extends SW to NE, cutting across the Lower MS River Valley through the Mid Atlantic coast.
1010 AM PST Wed Nov 23 2022 Wintry precipitation over the Idaho Panhandle will be transitioning to a light freezing drizzle this morning. Low clouds and fog will be common into Thanksgiving under building high pressure. Fog and slow stratus will struggle to fully clear out as upper level ridging builds over the Inland Northwest. Temperatures across the region today will be in the low to mid 30s, with temperatures in the 40s for the L-C Valley. Fog and stratus may struggle to clear out in some spots as high pressure builds over the region.
High clouds have been increasing today, and cloud cover will continue to thicken into tomorrow as a large upper level low approaches from the west.
Thanksgiving will continue to feature above average temperatures, though cloudy skies should keep temps cooler than today. Theta-e advection in advance of an approaching trough should allow for some widely scattered showers to develop, particularly during the afternoon. Ensemble model guidance remains in agreement that the upper-level trough currently moving over the Rocky Mountains will slow and become cut-off from the upper-level flow over the next couple of days as height rises ahead of a secondary upper-level trough commence across the Pacific Northwest.
1137 AM CST Wed Nov 23 2022 Key Messages: - Above average temps likely through the weekend with highs in the upper 30s to as high as the low 50s.
1256 PM CST Wed Nov 23 2022 KEY MESSAGES: - Slight chance of freezing drizzle Wednesday night. This cloud cover will bring a small chance of drizzle or freezing drizzle across eastern MN and west-central WI late tonight/early Thursday morning. Forecast soundings are saturated but an ideal drizzle/freezing drizzle scenario would have a deeper layer of saturation. However, any freezing drizzle could have travel impacts on Thanksgiving morning.
220 PM CST Wed Nov 23 2022 Dry conditions will continue for this Thanksgiving Eve, thanks to an area of high pressure settled over the northeastern CONUS. Southerly flow has helped current temperatures warm into the lower 50s north to the upper 50s south. 1) Chances of light rain or drizzle will increase tonight, lasting through most of Thanksgiving day 2) Temperatures will remain above seasonal average for the short term period We will see increasing moisture across our region late tonight into Thanksgiving, thanks to southerly return flow around an area of high pressure that will linger over the New England area, along with a deepening upper-level longwave trough over the Intermountain West states. A cold front is also progged to sweep through the area on Thanksgiving day. Ahead of this front will see the increasing moisture, especially in the low-levels.
This is being aided by strong southerly flow from the Gulf on the western half of an upper ridge centered over the Atlantic Coast. The southerly flow will help keep temperatures a bit warmer than we have experienced recently, with overnight lows only dropping to the low to mid 40s.
High pressure building in from the north today. The inversion did weaken overnight with the cold frontal passage but not enough to remove it leaving the stagnant airmass in place this morning.
1210 PM EST Wed Nov 23 2022 High pressure brings dry weather and mild afternoons into Thanksgiving.
(Rest of Today) Surface analysis this morning shows very little change from the past several hours as a ridge, centered to our northeast, remains in place. The ridge axis generally extends SW to NE, cutting across the Lower MS River Valley through the Mid Atlantic coast.
246 PM EST Wed Nov 23 2022 A large area of high pressure will remain centered over the Commonwealth into Thursday before moving northeast off the New England Coast.
316 PM EST Wed Nov 23 2022 High pressure will continue to provide dry weather through tonight and into Thanksgiving Day.
Thus increased temps well above freezing east of the Valley as well as in the southern Valley where snow cover is less/thinner. Elsewhere, temps should be closer to freezing. This dry layer is also just above freezing around 850 mb. Slightly warmer temperatures are expected today as highs climb into the 30s across most of the area, and near 40 degrees in portions of northwest Minnesota and far southeastern North Dakota. Southerly to southwesterly winds bring warmer air into the region today.
1239 PM EST Wed Nov 23 2022 Sunny and seasonable weather will continue through Thanksgiving under high pressure.
1018 AM EST Wed Nov 23 2022 A large area of high pressure will become centered over the Commonwealth today into Thursday before moving northeast off the New England Coast.
451 PM MST Wed Nov 23 2022 Upper level low dives south over the Rockies and bottoms out near El Paso Texas late Thursday. This low is bringing light snow to the northern mountains at this time. The northerly flow will usher in cooler air with highs for Thanksgiving in the 30s to lower 40s over northeast Colorado.
Dry and quiet weather conditions continue over the next few days, including Thanksgiving, with temperatures trending warmer than recent.
(Tonight) Mid/high clouds are beginning to approach NW AL out of the SW, as an upper low/trough pattern digs into the SW states. Otherwise, current temps are trending slightly warmer across the central TN Valley compared to the last few evenings, as high pressure begins to move east of the area, with current readings ranging predom from the mid 40s to the lower 50s. Overnight lows still look to fall mainly into the lower/mid 40s, as mid/high clouds gradually spread more to the east.
649 PM EST Wed Nov 23 2022 Sunny and seasonable weather will continue through Thanksgiving under high pressure.
948 PM EST Wed Nov 23 2022 High pressure will continue to provide dry weather through tonight and into Thanksgiving Day.
An upper level trough currently over the Rockies will track eastward this evening, then will split overnight, with the northern portion sliding across the Northern Plains on Thursday. At the surface, a cold front is currently situated from south central Canada to eastern Colorado. Cooler air will accompany these winds on Thursday, but still expect temperatures to be above freezing due to a somewhat warm start to the day and a lack of snow cover across a majority of the area. High pressure will nose in from the west Thursday night, with the main high center extending from the west central Rockies to the Nebraska/Kansas region.
514 PM MST Wed Nov 23 2022 Today has been a warmer day than weâve had recently, and temperatures have successfully risen above freezing, breaking the streak of cold days in most places. Places that keep cloud cover will keep moderated temperatures, while those with clearing skies will have cooler temperatures and a high probability of fog development during Thursday morning.
The first half of the Thanksgiving four day weekend will be cooler than normal with occasional breezes. Warmer temperatures over the weekend.