Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
441 AM PDT Tue Mar 21 2017 A series of weather systems will bring cooler and more unsettled weather to the region this week. Upper trough centered off the West Coast with surface cold front approaching the NorCal coast early this morning. Precipitation fell as snow earlier in the night over Donner Pass but has changed back to rain, so little to no travel impacts are expected until around midday when cooler air will begin to make it into the northern Sierra. Showery precip continues tonight and Wednesday as the upper trough moves overhead.
A series of upper level impulses will move west to east over Mississippi and Alabama through early evening north of a west-east orientated upper ridge over the Gulf of Mexico.
Additional low level moisture should stream northward with the onset of the low level jet Thursday morning.
The ridging aloft with associated subsidence and mid level dry air will limit overall convective coverage again today, but should begin to see a few showers and storms develop around midday along the sea breeze boundary. However, some drier air should mix down during the afternoon lowering dew points to the lower 70s away from the coast with most areas not reaching 108 for a heat index, but there will still be a few spots that climb to around 110.
/issued 351 AM CDT WED JUL 6 2016/ Warm temperatures in store for the area once again today as high pressure continues to influence the forecast.
A deep layered ridge is centered over the Bahamas, Florida, and Cuba. At the surface, the Western Atlantic ridge axis extends west across the Florida Peninsula. As of 10 am, the minimum temperature so far has been 84 degrees, which could tie the high minimum record once again if it holds through midnight EST.
Further west highs in the lower 90s seem possible. Dewpoints will remain high in the lower to mid 70s. Bulk of early morning shra/tsra activity continues to move ewd into GA, and although a few lingering shra will be psbl this morning conds will be more unfavorable as primary upper trough axis continues to shift sewd.
Today Through Thursday Night Morning surface analysis indicates high pressure to the southeast of the state and weak low pressure noted across the OK/TX panhandles.
A dry cold front will bring a cooler airmass to northern Utah today and Thursday.
TFJ Upper low moving across the northern Rockies this morning spreading mid to high level clouds over eastern Montana. This wave will push a cold front across the state today. The upper low moves into the northern plains on Thursday with a few lingering showers over the eastern zones.
Several weak disturbances along the northern periphery of the broad upper ridge will eventually allow a weak cold front to dip into parts of northeast OK and northwest AR.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 90 74 94 75 / 40 30 30 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 87 71 90 74 / 40 30 50 30 Oak Ridge, TN 87 71 90 73 / 40 30 50 30 Tri Cities Airport, TN 85 69 86 70 / 70 50 60 30.
/issued 404 AM CDT WED JUL 6 2016/ SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday): A fairly dry and stable 500 mb ridge will remain in control of conditions over Deep South Texas throughout today and Thursday. With the 500 mb ridge axis remaining in place over the region do not expect much difference in the high/low temps through Thursday.
the area is now under the influence of a high pressure ridge over the west Atlantic and extending into South Florida, while mid level ridging is keeping subsidence aloft across the area. The Florida southeast coast and the metro areas will only remain a little cooler with highs in the lower 90s and heat index values near 100. The ridging aloft begins to finally weaken during the upcoming weekend, and at the same time the amount of Saharan dust will be diminishing.
A strong U/L ridge will hold over the Florida peninsula through Thursday with strong subsidence persisting over the forecast area. with highs around 90 to the lower 90s at the coast.
Thus left pops on the low side for today. Mdl 8h temps arnd 18C this afternoon should translate to max from the lower to mid 80s ovr the higher terrain.
A thunderstorm complex over central Sonora associated with a weak inverted trough has largely dissipated early this evening, however has essentially bifurcated ridging aloft with one high pressure center shifting into west Texas while a western branch remains situated over far SE Arizona. Furthermore with this increased westerly flow and depressed troughing pattern, H5 heights will languish only around 590dm yielding temperatures very close to the seasonal climatology.
Temps look a bit lower today than yesterday given a bit greater cloud coverage and a weakened ridge to the southeast so should stay below heat advisory criteria for east Central GA today. Slightly warmer temps across north GA and similar temps for central with many areas getting low to mid 90s.
A weak upper level ridge will move inland from the offshore waters today, bringing dry warmer weather with more sunshine to Western Washington.
1032 AM CDT WED JUL 6 2016 Storms moving through the lower Acadiana area this morning will lift northeast while shower development continues over Vermilion parish in the wake of the storms. Upper level ridging will hold with winds off the Gulf at the surface. The ridging aloft should keep the cu from forming into any significant shower activity and will not mention any at TAF sites. Temperatures are in the lowers 80s south to near 80 north. Not expecting much change over the next 2 days as high pressure continues to build across the region. Temperatures will be the big story as highs zoom up into the low to mid 90s areawide.
An upper level trough passed over the region overnight and is now exiting the area. Max Temperatures today will be slightly cooler than normal.
Tonight region comes under increasingly SW flow aloft as mid level trough continues to dig and shift east. Increased pops from west to east late as inverted trough develops over the central dakotas and forcing increases. On Thursday upper trof propagates east into the fa.
The low cloud coverage will decrease each morning both Thu and Fri. both the GFS and the EC agree that the weekends weather will be dominated by a trof passage as the Pac NW upper low pushes across the upper states.
Primarily for the lower deserts this means there is a chance for some low-end monsoon activity for areas such as southern Gila County and parts of Pinal County this afternoon. A thunderstorm complex over central Sonora associated with a weak inverted trough has largely dissipated early this evening, however has essentially bifurcated ridging aloft with one high pressure center shifting into west Texas while a western branch remains situated over far SE Arizona. Furthermore with this increased westerly flow and depressed troughing pattern, H5 heights will languish only around 590dm yielding temperatures very close to the seasonal climatology.
Skies should start out clear during the evening with clouds increasing later at night as an upper trough approaches from the southwest.
More of the same in the short term period as high pressure remains anchored overhead.
With these factors in mind, have bumped up the PoPs slightly, with the best rain chances still expected north of I-10 (closer to the weak upper trough).
Little change noted in the overall mid to upper pattern with ridging holding firm. That should change after sunrise as initial mixing turns the low levels over. Weakly forced, weakly capped environment with enough mid level moisture around to keep this dirty ridge going for at least one more day. Best coverage should be near the low level theta-e axis that will extend from sw zones to north central and will run with low end chance PoPs there tapering to slight chance elsewhere. The peak intensity of this dome of high pressure still looks to favor Thursday at which point local thicknesses max out - partially aided by SW winds at the surface similar to today.
North of the southward moving boundary, it will be much cooler. So a similar scenario for Thursday, although upper heights are starting to rise in our south/west, in response to the broader ridge aloft.
Several of the high resolution CAMs show spotty showers developing as well over far northern Minnesota. Highs Thursday will be from 75 to 80 for most areas, but be cooler around Lake Superior as off lake winds increase in response to dropping pressures to the west and south.
Otherwise Pine Ridge could be the favored location. This will send a cold front south across the area Thursday morning. Temperatures will be somewhat cooler behind the front, but still should reach the upper 80s across southwest Nebraska.
First, the low level jet is mainly feeding into the Kansas storm complex limiting convergence on the gust front. With a strong low level jet feeding into it and stronger mid level winds, shear values increase substantially in the lower levels. For the extended, an upper ridge will build across the center of the country.
As the trough approaches the Upper Mississippi Valley area late Thursday a cold front will move into northern KS. The H85 thermal ridge will remain anchored over the area resulting in another hot day with heat indices reaching/exceeding 105 once again.
At this point, it appears as if enough clearing will take place over the Advisory area to allow temperatures to still reach the low to mid 90s, with heat indices 102-106. Have temperatures rising into the low to mid 90s again today with heat index values from the upper 90s (south central MO) to the 105 to 108 range within the advisory area out west.
This evening and overnight, an upper trough moves across the mid state to produce additional storms, with the best moisture setting up over the Cumberland Plateau.
Cool dry and breezy today as upper trough in Montana and eastern Idaho shifts east. Warmer Thursday as the next upper ridge comes in from the west.
A weak trough behind exiting precip from earlier this evening is allowing for the formation of this precip. The main wx issues over the next 3 days continue to revolve around the elongated H5/H7 ridge over the southern half of the country.
Stationary front was located from eastern IA into central IL with a cold front back into nw IA. Highs will be in the mid to upper 80s with lows in the lower 70s. Thursday and Thursday night: Potent upper level trough and cold front will be coming across the cwa.
Low pressure will approach the region tonight and cross the area Thursday. Another small wave of low pressure in our active pattern will approach tonight as high pressure builds over eastern Canada. The high will push cooler air across the area tonight as it slides into the Maritimes. As the low approaches late tonight, showers will move across the area and a steadier overunning rainfall is expected across the north. Fog in coastal areas this morning is expected to dissipate this afternoon as winds becoming easterly in response to the high moving through eastern Canada. A frontal boundary will remain stalled across the Gulf of Maine Thursday while low pressure moves east across the region. The low will exit across the maritimes Thursday night with rain during the evening tapering to showers overnight.
an even warmer day is expected as high temperatures were expected to climb into the upper 90s. The synoptic pattern included the persistent 1000-500 mb Bermuda ridge axis across south-central Florida and a weak upper level low lifting slowly northward across AL/GA evident on water vapor imagery this morning. This drier air will significantly limit convective converge but high surface based instability and dynamical support under the upper level low could produce a few strong thunderstorms today and this evening.
Upper level ridging will hold with winds off the Gulf at the surface. The ridging aloft should keep the cu from forming into any significant shower activity and will not mention any at TAF sites. Temperatures are in the lowers 80s south to near 80 north. Not expecting much change over the next 2 days as high pressure continues to build across the region. Temperatures will be the big story as highs zoom up into the low to mid 90s areawide.
Freezing levels per RAP forecast soundings of about 14. First, the low level jet is mainly feeding into the Kansas storm complex limiting convergence on the gust front. With a strong low level jet feeding into it and stronger mid level winds, shear values increase substantially in the lower levels. For the extended, an upper ridge will build across the center of the country.
Clear skies persist across interior northern California today under a dry trough situated across the Western US.
Fairly quiet right now with the culprit cold front extending from northeast WI through southern WI/northeast IA. For tonight, low pressure moving out into the Plains from the Rockies will increase 850mb moisture transport over the quasi- stationary front/warm front in place from northern IA into southern WI. For Thursday into Thursday night, will be watching an area of low pressure moving northeast out of the Plains and across the our region.
743 AM EDT Wed Jul 6 2016 Prevailing high pressure will provide very warm and moderately humid conditions to the North Country today, with afternoon high temperatures in the mid to upper 80s in most locations. A trough of low pressure approaching from southeastern Ontario will bring a slight chance of a thunderstorm tonight across northern New York, and scattered showers and thunderstorms across the North Country during Thursday afternoon.
Deep layered Atlantic high pressure stretches across Florida and the Gulf of Mexico. The drier air at the mid-levels has also worked with the high to suppress convection, limiting shower and thunderstorm coverage to mainly portions of the interior where boundary collisions can help the convection further develop. the area is now under the influence of a high pressure ridge over the west Atlantic and extending into South Florida, while mid level ridging is keeping subsidence aloft across the area. The Florida southeast coast and the metro areas will only remain a little cooler with highs in the lower 90s and heat index values near 100. The ridging aloft begins to finally weaken during the upcoming weekend, and at the same time the amount of Saharan dust will be diminishing.
ranging from the low 70s in the east to near 80F along the Mississippi river. The upper ridge is also building over our area today. Storm chances appear minimal as a significant cap will accompany the building ridge at 850mb.
Despite the low level inversion, elevated convection is certainly possible through the overnight hours and can be seen in the strengthening of the showers currently moving through the forecast area. Given the placement of the trough axis by 18Z however, PoPs show a decreasing trend during the afternoon, with activity expected to diminish by 06Z.
Deep layer ridge will continue to extend across the area, acting to suppress afternoon convection and keeping hot and humid conditions in place. Ridge axis of high pressure at the surface will continue to reside near Lake Okeechobee with weak low level S/SW winds over central Florida. (Previous Discussion) Ridge axis persisting across southern half of peninsula with S/SW winds becoming S/SE by afternoon as sea breeze forms.
will tweak hourly values for slightly warmer temperatures. Storm system will continue pulling away tonight as mid level nw flow/ridging builds in from the west, clearing remaining cloud cover away. Maximum temperatures in the lower to middle 80s early in the period should have no trouble warming into the upper 80s to near 90 by the end of the period as ridging pattern keeps lower layers warm. Meanwhile over the east, dewpoints in the lower 60s will mean a larger diurnal range each day and a lesser probability of precipitation.
Low ceilings are expected at all sites tonight as a weak low pressure system continues to move across the Eastern U.
Mostly sunny skies can be expected on Saturday as an upper level RIDGE builds in.
The low level jet develops to the west of the area tonight.
Saturday will feature mostly clear skies with temps in the low to mid 80s.
719 PM CDT FRI MAY 20 2016 Very little change in the forecast for the next 24-36 hours as weak high pressure begins to build across the western Great Lakes.
The system was leaving behind some moisture from the rainfall as an area of high pressure moves over the region on the eastern edge of an upper level ridge. The high pressure will bring light to calm winds and clearing skies to the Ozarks overnight.
An upper low bringing rain chances to central Indiana will traverse the area tonight and tomorrow and keep mostly cloudy skies and below normal high temperatures over the area. Saturday night upper ridging will start to build and usher in dry weather along with a warming trend.
/issued 245 PM CDT FRI MAY 20 2016/ WV imagery shows West Texas and Southeast New Mexico sitting under weak upper-lvl ridging between two systems, one over the upper MS Valley and the other over northern CA. At the lwr lvls, stratus that has plagued the area over the past few days has burned off w/the exit of yesterday's trough, w/afternoon temps approaching normal once again. Upper ridge is forecast to amplify a bit over the next few days as the west coast trough moves inland, w/a weak dryline developing over mid-CWA Saturday afternoon.
With skies a little more clear than originally thought, temps may drop a few deg cooler than previous forecast, into the upper 50s to lower 60s. Will handle the lowest cigs with tempos at this time as satellite data shows the clouds moving in/out through the hour.
As low pressure tracks through the southern Ohio Valley, spotty showers will expand into YIP/DTW/DET, but with dry northeast low level flow feeding off high pressure to the north, ceilings will remain VFR. A greater push of low level moisture advection will be lacking, low level flow locked into an easterly component immediately south of prevalent surface ridging centered over northern lake Huron.
Readings range from the low 80s in Northeast Mississippi in an area that is south of a warm front and where cloud cover isn't as widespread to the low 60s in parts of NW Tennessee where thick cloud cover and moisture from rain earlier today has kept the area cooler. However, look for temperatures in the warmest areas to cool a bit as the aforementioned warm front retreats back south as a cold front.
Cool high pressure to our northeast will extend into the region through tonight. Low pressure will develop off the South Carolina coast later today, then track northeastward over eastern North Carolina tonight through Saturday. Upper level low pressure will drift slowly over the area over the weekend, bringing continued unsettled weather. With the coastal low expected to track east of the forecast area, CAD should remain largely intact until the passage of the cold front on Saturday. The northern most area will glance the northwest and northern sections of the forecast area, attendant to the better upper trough dynamics and upper diffluence lifting northward into the Ohio Valley. As such, expect to see the highest rainfall amounts over the northwest/northern piedmont with sharp cut-off to the southeast, ranging from three-quarters of an inch to as little as a tenth of an inch.
This combined with increasing winds, should result in warmer minimums. -howerton At least early in this period, good agreement between ECMWF/GFS with Western US trough becoming well established. ECMWF brings the bulk of this energy out on Thu night- Fri, while GFS is weaker with wave and reloads trough by Fri. ECMWF by Fri has closed low over Western KS.
Center of upper low was into north central Missouri early this afternoon with high clouds clearing. Lee trough under southwest upper flow keeping southerly low-level flow in place but gradient remains weak. Weak lower level flow remains in place into Saturday as mid/upper ridge axis builds east into the Central Plains. Both the lift and instability look rather meager through tonight, with somewhat better ingredients for precip developing in the midday hours of Saturday as the mid level ridge comes east.
814 PM EDT FRI MAY 20 2016 Low pressure approaches this evening and moves through late tonight. A Low pressure system intensify as the first vorticity lobe crosses the area by this evening.
Weak upper low tracking across the Midwest bringing some light precip. just low chances for precip, and winds becoming increasingly northerly in the wake of the low. The upper low and any lingering rain chance in our southeast counties will finally push away from our area later Saturday morning, which should allow a decrease in cloud cover during the day as upper level heights slowly build over the region.
/issued 354 PM CDT FRI MAY 20 2016/ An upper trough continues to lift northeast into the Midwest and away from the region. In the wake of this trough, a significant amount of mid and upper level dry air continues to advect into the CWA.
637 PM CDT FRI MAY 20 2016 Small-scale upper trough/low pressure center responsible for early morning shwr activity continuing to slowly translate east this afternoon. Low stratus that has kept afternoon highs largely in the lower 60s will begin to breakup this evening.
1134 PM CDT FRI MAY 20 2016 At 3 PM, a short wave trough was located over northern Missouri. Finally, another short wave trough was located over central Minnesota.
1046 PM MDT FRI MAY 20 2016 20z surface analysis had southerly flow over the CWA ahead of lee trough from central MT into central CO. TSRA have developed over the higher terrain as southeast boundary layer flow converges over the northern and central Black Hills. Convection should develop along lee trough in the afternoon over northeast WY with 15-20m/s 0-6km bulk shear.
752 PM EDT FRI MAY 20 2016 High pressure continues to build into the region overnight for another dry night with clear skies.
High pressure now building over the region in the wake of our latest frontal passage. Expecting just a bit of patchy fog towards sunrise as skies will be mostly clear as ridging aloft develops. The ridging will keep clouds in check thereby allowing afternoon temps to climb back into the mid to upper 80s over the weekend.
With skies a little more clear than originally thought, temps may drop a few deg cooler than previous forecast, into the upper 50s to lower 60s. As high pressure builds in behind the cdfnt on Saturday, cloud cover will begin to dissipate.
Lows tonight will be slightly warmer than seasonal normals, mainly in the lower to mid 60s. Highs tomorrow will be at or very near seasonal normals, mainly in the lower to mid 80s. (Saturday night through Friday) Large upper trough over the Western U.
1035 PM EDT FRI MAY 20 2016 High pressure continues to build into the region overnight for another dry night with clear skies.
A weak subtropical ridge rooted in the western North Atlantic stretches west across the southern Florida peninsula. The low level convergence aided by upper level forcing has sparked several rounds of convection in the northeastern Gulf. Gentle easterly breezes prevail across the island chain, with temperatures in the lower 80s. A weak ridge will remain across the florida peninsula through Saturday night.
Some of the high-res guidance is showing some streamer showers overnight in the deep southerly flow in the western CWA and will include the mention of isolated showers. For tomorrow, southerly flow and warm-air advection in the lower levels of the atmosphere returns for the entire area. However, ridging in the upper levels of the atmosphere will be in place which should help limit the overall coverage and the high-res models is showing only isolated activity.
This will dry the low levels out some and allow dewpoints to fall into the lower 40s. Surface convergence around the low along with height falls will generate thunderstorms.
1050 PM CDT FRI MAY 20 2016 Very little change in the forecast for the next 24-36 hours as weak high pressure begins to build across the western Great Lakes.