Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1218 AM EST TUE NOV 24 2015 A DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL KEEP MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY. A GRADUAL WARMUP AND CONTINUED DRY WEATHER WILL FOLLOW FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THANKSGIVING AS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC SEABOARD.
High pressure over the Southeast US has lead to warmer weather across the area today as temperatures warmed into the lower 60s with clear skies and light southwest winds.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR WARMING TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
THE LOW CLOUDS ON SATL CONT TO MARCH SEWD FROM THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE NRN HALF OF WI ON A W-NW FLOW ALOFT. IT WOULD APPEAR THAT MOSTLY CLDY SKIES WOULD PREVAIL ACROSS THE NORTH WITH SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY SOUTH AS SOME OF THE LOW CLOUDS SAG SOUTH AND THE HI/MID CLOUDS ARRIVE.
LOWS SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOW 30S.
346 AM EST TUE NOV 24 2015 A DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE AREA TODAY. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA THROUGH MID WEEK. WITH HIGH PRESSURE MAINTAINING DRY WEATHER AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES.
KABI should be near the northern edge of the low cloud development. KABI should be on the northern edge of the low cloud development. With dewpoints remaining on the low side, the threat for rain over the next 24 hours is minimal. Increasing southerly flow will yield a significant increase in low-level moisture, with dewpoints progged to climb into the lower 50s by Tuesday afternoon.
404 AM EST TUE NOV 24 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL MOVE TO THE EAST COAST ON WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE PLAINS. COMBINATION OF SHRTWV MOVG ACROSS SW CANADA AND UPR LOW DIGGING SE INTO THE PAC NW WILL STRENGTHEN RIDGE ALOFT MOVG INTO THE GRTLKS AND PROVIDE FAIR WX ACROSS OUR CWA TODAY/TONIGHT. SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES/HEAVY FROST ASSOCIATED WITH THE RADIATIONAL COOLING FOG MAY ALSO LEAD TO SOME SLICK SPOTS ON ROADS. SFC GRADIENT WILL STRENGTHEN TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER THE PLAINS.
Have raised highs above guidance due to warmer than expected temperatures yesterday and an equal to possibly even better potential for warming this afternoon, bumping afternoon temperatures into the lower 60s more much of the CWA.
With dew points tonight in the u20s-around 30, and weak waa, will go for Lows in the lower 30s tonight. Visible shots show some high clouds incoming from the High Plains, that may scatter about our night-time skies as well.
High pressure moving up the eastern seaboard will keep us dry with cirrus as the main cloud type and slowly moderating temperatures today through tomorrow. We can expect afternoon temperatures today in the middle and upper 50s, with readings tomorrow 2-4 degrees warmer. Lows tonight will mostly be in the lower and middle 30s.
A FAIRLY ROBUST TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DIG SOUTH OUT OF WESTERN CANADA INTO THE GREAT BASIN TODAY. A STRONG DOWNSTREAM RIDGE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP AND BUILD OVER THE REGION THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. AS THE TROUGH AND DOWNSTREAM RIDGE BECOME MORE ESTABLISHED SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS, WHICH WILL BE ABLE TO PULL GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE MS RIVER VALLEY.
Evening update: A low pressure system near Vancouver Island will drop south to the northern Oregon coast Tuesday morning. Moist southwest flow ahead of the low will bring an increase in precipitation across the region falling as snow for most locations. This could produce areas of freezing rain with Washtucna, La Crosse, and Pomeroy areas under the biggest freezing rain threat. Warmer surface temperatures in the mid 30s for Pullman and Lewiston should give these areas a mix of rain and snow. JW 06Z TAFS: A low pressure system will spread mainly snow over the region tonight and through most of Tuesday before tapering off Tuesday night.
317 AM CST TUE NOV 24 2015 LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING A BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. DEEP TROUGH OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WAS PUSHING MOISTURE OVER THE RIDGE WITH A BAND OF ALTOCUMULUS EXTENDING FROM THE DAKOTAS THROUGH EASTERN IA MOVING INTO THE AREA. THIS WARMER/MOIST AIR OVERRIDING THE SNOW PACK IN PLACE ACROSS IA/IL/SOUTHERN MN/WI IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE STRATUS AND PRODUCE AREAS/WIDESPREAD DRIZZLE AND PATCHY FOG THROUGH THE DAY. WITH SOUNDINGS SUPPORTING CONTINUATION OF DRIZZLE AS LOWS FALL BACK SLIGHTLY INTO THE MIDDLE 30S TO THE LOWER 40S.
THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS/NEBRASKA WITH A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE ROCKIES. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH IS BUILDING OVER THE REGION FROM THE WEST. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST AS AN UPPER TROUGH DROPS MOVES ONSHORE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER IN THE LEE TROUGH WILL SHIFTS SOUTH INTO ERN WYOMING AS 1035MB HIGH OVER ALBERTA PUSHES A COLD FRONT INTO THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT.
I generally went at or above the warmest guidance which was approx 3-5 degrees warmer than yesterday.
MODIFYING POLAR HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM SOUTH TEXAS TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL ALLOW ONE MORE NIGHT WITH STARRY SKIES AND DECOUPLED WINDS. TEMPS WILL AVERAGE 10-12 DEGREES WARMER FOR WED MORNING EXPECTING UPPER 40S C LA TO UPPER 50S SE TX. WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. EXPECT LOW TO BE ANOTHER 8-10 DEGREES WARMER WITH UPPER 50S C LA TO MID 60S SE TX & COASTAL SW LA. WITH THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE WEST SLOWLY MOVING EAST. DML HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE EASTERN U. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER WEST TEXAS BY WEDNESDAY WILL HELP TO INCREASE ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK.
In the upper levels, a closed low coming onshore near the Oregon-California border today will dig into the Intermountain West through mid week. The overall impact through Wednesday night will be continued dry and warmer conditions.
430 AM EST TUE NOV 24 2015 HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE REGION. WITH THE HIGH SHIFTING SLIGHTLY EAST. SLIGHTLY BETTER SOUTH WINDS MAY KEEP TEMPERATURES A TOUCH WARMER. BUT STILL BELOW FREEZING FOR MOST OF THE AREA. THE HIGH SLIDES FURTHER EAST WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS STRENGTHENING. THIS SHOULD SEND HIGHS EVEN HIGHER INTO THE LOWER 60S UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. BROAD EAST COAST RIDGING WILL GENERALLY HOLD THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY BEFORE RIPPLES OF ENERGY.
327 AM EST TUE NOV 24 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TODAY. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE ON WEDNESDAY AS A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND.
A LEE TROUGH WAS CENTERED IN CENTRAL COLORADO. ZONAL FLOW IS LOCATED OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. THE LEE TROUGH SLIDES INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW CUTOFF H5 LOW SWINGING INTO THE ROCKIES AND REMAINING DUE TO BLOCKING RIDGE OVER THE EAST/SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY. A STRONG SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL PASS THRU THE CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON HRS. THIS COMBINED WITH HIGH PRESSURE NOSING SOUTH.
408 AM EST TUE NOV 24 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL MOVE TO THE EAST COAST ON WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE PLAINS. COMBINATION OF SHRTWV MOVG ACROSS SW CANADA AND UPR LOW DIGGING SE INTO THE PAC NW WILL STRENGTHEN RIDGE ALOFT MOVG INTO THE GRTLKS AND PROVIDE FAIR WX ACROSS OUR CWA TODAY/TONIGHT. SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES/HEAVY FROST ASSOCIATED WITH THE RADIATIONAL COOLING FOG MAY ALSO LEAD TO SOME SLICK SPOTS ON ROADS. SFC GRADIENT WILL STRENGTHEN TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER THE PLAINS.
351 AM CST TUE NOV 24 2015 THE THREAT FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING IS THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE. NAM BUFFER SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A WEAK DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE EVENT DEVELOPING BY 6Z WEDNESDAY. EVEN A FEW CAM SOLUTIONS ARE NOW PICKING UP ON THE IDEA OF A LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATION AREA OF THE PRAIRIE COTEAU. WILL MENTION FREEZING DRIZZLE ALONG THE ND/SD BORDER AND THE PRAIRIE COTEAU. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE CWA ON WEDNESDAY WITH ONLY A NOTICEABLE SHIFT IN THE WINDS EXPECTED FOR MOST AREAS.
1227 AM EST TUE NOV 24 2015 HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK IN TODAY.
CLEAR SKIES ARE PREVAILING TONIGHT WITH THE HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS STAYING OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA. CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FEATURE CLEAR SKIES AND TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 40S. AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT. SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR ALLOWING FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AND A RIDGE/VALLEY SPLIT. CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FEATURE CONTINUED DOMINANCE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND SUNNY SKIES. BUT THIS SHOULD NOT PROVIDE ANY SORT OF INSULATION FOR THE AREA AS THIS COLDER AND DRIER AIR MASS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO PLUNGE AGAIN TONIGHT INTO THE LOWER 20S. THE WINDS WILL BE RATHER LIGHT AS THE HIGH PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST AND THE GRADIENT WEAKENS QUITE A BIT. LOWS ON TUESDAY NIGHT WILL ONLY BE IN THE MID 20S FOR THE DEEPER VALLEYS AND AROUND 30 ON THE RIDGES.
COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE CAROLINAS WILL HOLD OVER THE EAST COAST FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. AND WHILE WE'LL BE SEEING LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOME MORE UNIFORMLY FROM THE EAST IN THE LOWEST 5K FT. WHICH IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE LOW LEVEL NOCTURNAL STABILIZATION SHOULD EQUATE TO A GOOD CHANCE OF SHALLOW LOW STRATUS AND FOG LATE WED NIGHT.
MORE PROBABLE FOR THE LOWER CIGS TO DEVELOP TUE EVNG/OVERNIGHT AS ONSHORE FLOW HAS TIME TO TRANSPORT SOME GULF MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION.
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE NORTHLAND THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER AND TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S. HAVE GONE WITH A MOSTLY CLOUDY FORECAST FOR TONIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH CORRESPONDINGLY WARMER MINS TONIGHT AND COLDER LOWS TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION BRINGING IN COLDER AIR BY EVENING.
CHILLY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVERHEAD TODAY AND THEN MOVE NE TONIGHT. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL BATTLE THE COLD TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING AND IT WILL CERTAINLY BE A WARMER DAY THAN ON MON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND THEN MOVE NE OF THE WATERS TONIGHT. A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE LOWER CAPE FEAR RIVER THIS MORNING. THE WORST OF THE FLOODING ALONG THE LOWER CAPE FEAR RIVER IS EXPECTED BETWEEN 7 AND 9 AM. ALONG THE LOWER CAPE FEAR RIVER. THE HIGHEST WATER LEVELS SHOULD OCCUR WITH THE DAYTIME TIDE GIVEN THIS IS THE HIGHEST OF THE DAILY HIGH TIDES.
1200 AM EST TUE NOV 24 2015 HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BE FORCED SOUTH AS A WEAK TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKES THIS EVENING.
1103 PM CST MON NOV 23 2015 Weak high pressure centered over Iowa southeast thru central Illinois will drift to the east of the area by Tuesday morning. Main short-term forecast concern continues to be potential for fog development tonight as high pressure slides overhead and winds go light/variable. Upper level ridging will build into central IL Tuesday providing for dry conditions with some mid and high cloud cover. The warming trend will continue slowly with highs reaching the low to mid 40s I-74 northward where snow cover remains. to the low to mid 50s south of I-70. this ridge will slip east of IL allowing increased southerly flow and a plume of Gulf moisture to nudge eastward into Illinois.
616 PM PDT SUN SEP 20 2015 A fast moving, dry cold front will produce windy conditions late this afternoon into this evening.
Biggest change was to drop lows in a few spots, and especially in parts of the eastern Ozarks where several personal weather stations were already reporting temps in the lower 50s @ 02z.
1134 PM CDT SUN SEP 20 2015 ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL PROMOTE WARMING OF THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE ACROSS THE SANDHILLS REGION OF WEST CENTRAL NEBRASKA DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIODS. DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH A THERMAL TROUGH WILL PROVIDE FOR MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN THE TEENS FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 83. FIRE HEADLINES ARE NOT ANTICIPATED HOWEVER AS WIND SPEEDS ALONG AND BEHIND THE TROUGH WILL BE LIGHT /LESS THAN 10KTS/.
Globals are showing some precip development well west of the Ozarks over the high plains region with surface trofing, however, this activity should stay east of our region. Upper level ridging will begin to build into the area Wed/Thurs and continue building eastward with time. Temps should be around or perhaps even slightly above climate average with ridging in place for the longer term.
806 PM EDT SUN SEP 20 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A RETURN OF NEAR NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES FOR THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE COMING WEEK.
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 60S BROUGHT IN BY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS REMAIN MOSTLY IN THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES AS STRONG WESTERLY WINDS HAVE BROUGHT DRIER AIR AND WARMER TEMPERATURES FURTHER EAST. THE THREAT FOR CONVECTION CEASES AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST FOR MONDAY AND CONTINUES THE WARMER TEMPERATURES FROM TODAY.
1036 PM MDT SUN SEP 20 2015 HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL THROUGH MONDAY PRODUCING ANOTHER COOL NIGHT TONIGHT AND A WARM MONDAY AFTERNOON.
Globals are showing some precip development well west of the Ozarks over the high plains region with surface trofing, however, this activity should stay west of our region. Upper level ridging will begin to build into the area Wed/Thurs and continue building eastward with time. Temps should be around or perhaps even slightly above climate average with ridging in place for the longer term.
1039 PM EDT SUN SEP 20 2015 AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE NORTH PART OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT.
WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW OUT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AND WESTERLY FLOW BEHIND. EVEN WARMER MID LEVEL AIR WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY.
NEW MODEL DATA IS PUSHING THE HIGHER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE FURTHER EAST. AT THIS TIME THE LOWEST VISIBILITIES LOOK TO BE JUST EAST AND SOUTH OF THE AREA. SO TRENDED THE TEMPERATURES TOWARD THE COOLER GUIDANCE THERE AND A LITTLE WARMER. MODELS RECENTLY WITH THE DRY GROUND AND AIR MASS HAS BEEN UNDERDOING THE HIGH TEMPERATURES A LITTLE. SO WILL MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE ONGOING FORECAST BUT TRENDED TOWARD THE WARMER GUIDANCE.
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON MONDAY WHICH WILL BRING GUSTY W-NW WINDS. AT THE SFC A TROUGH IS ALSO PUSHING THRU BRINGING WEST WINDS TO AREAS JUST WEST OF KDVL. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THRU THE AREA ON MONDAY.
skies will begin to clear out as a ridge of high pressure builds in from the Southwest.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER DURING THIS PERIOD. RIDGING ALOFT AND AT THE SFC WILL HOLD CONTROL OF THE WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DRIFT INTO NRN LOWER LATE TUE NIGHT. LATEST OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE RUNS OF THE ECMWF AND GFS SHOW RIDGING BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. IF THERE IS GOING TO BE ANY ISSUE WITH THE DRY AND MAINLY CLEAR FORECAST IT WILL COME FROM THE HANDLING OF THE LOW SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST AND THE POTENTIAL TROPICAL SYSTEM OFF THE BAJA OF CALIFORNIA. THE SYSTEM IS ABSORBED BY THE RIDGE IN THE MODELS WITH DIFFERENT TIMING AND LOCATION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY.
MORE ATTENTION IS WARRANTED FOR THE TUE NIGHT-THU NIGHT TIME FRAME AS THE FRONT STALLS OUT JUST TO THE S OF THE AREA IN CONJUNCTION WITH AN APPROACHING LARGE AREA OF MOISTURE AND UPR LVL TROUGHING FROM THE SRN CALIFORNIA/NRN MEXICAN COAST. THIS LARGE MASS OF MOISTURE AND UPR LVL VORT MAXIMA WILL SHIFT NEWD AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF AN UPR LVL RIDGE OVER THE LWR-MID MISS RIVER VALLEY REGIONS.
BROAD MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ACROSS THE OHIO AND TN VALLEY WITH A SFC COLD FRONT ACROSS NC.
MID- AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS OVER S MN AND W WI ASSOCIATED WITH MID-LEVEL TROUGH. TEMPS ON MONDAY SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN TODAY.
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES HIGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE THE DAKOTAS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST WITH BROAD RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. A COLD FRONT WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO THE AREA WITH BREEZY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING THROUGH THE MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST WHERE COOLER AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT.
THE LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT IS WEAK AND THE CURRENT WIND FIELD IS WEAK AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION FOR ALL THE CWA. MONDAY'S HIGHS LOOK TO BE 2-4 C WARMER THAN TODAY'S HIGHS. UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL BRING DRY AND MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN COLORADO SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
744 PM EDT SUN SEP 20 2015 STRONG HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPS HAVE WARMED THRU THE 60S ON THEIR WAY INTO THE LOWER 70S FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS. WITH STRONG SURFACE RIDGING AND SUBSIDENCE HOLDING OVER MICHIGAN. SURFACE REGIME WILL REMAIN DOMINATED BY RIDGE OF HIGHER PRESSURE EXTENDING BACK FROM ITS CANADIAN MARITIMES CENTER. STILL APPEARS ENERGY ROTATING OUT OF WHAT IS BECOMING SEMI-PERMANENT NORTHEAST PACIFIC TROUGH WILL SLICE ACROSS CANADA.
743 PM EDT SUN SEP 20 2015 COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE NEW WEEK KEEPING THE WEATHER DRY. QUIET WEATHER ON TAP AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. EXPECT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 40S FOR MOST AREAS WITH EVEN SOME UPPER 30S IN THE COLDER SPOTS. RIDGING AT THE SURFACE WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD.
FAIRLY QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EARLY THIS WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS.
The 7 pm EDT regional surface analysis showed a weak cold front from the SC-NC border to the Gulf Coast of LA and TX. Vapor imagery and upper air data showed a broad, weak trough over portions of the eastern CONUS, with multiple short wave troughs embedded within the mean flow. Once short wave trough was translating eastward across GA and north FL this evening, but with Precip Water values well below climo over our region, the only sign of this was some high-level cloudiness.
727 PM EDT SUN SEP 20 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND ALLOW FOR A CHILLY NIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES. THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER DURING THE ENTIRE WORK WEEK WITH DRY WEATHER. HIGH PRESSURE IS STRETCHED FROM ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TO SOUTHERN QUEBEC THIS EVENING. BUT WITH LATE AFTERNOON DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S HAVE HELD TEMPS JUST ABOVE THAT THRESHOLD. HOWEVER DRY AIR FROM HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL KEEP OUR AREA DRY.
A SURFACE FRONT HAS PUSHED SOUTH OF THE REGION AND THE LOWER LEVELS ARE SOMEWHAT DRY. AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE WAS MOVING OUR WAY FROM ARKANSAS AS A TROUGH CUTS ACROSS ILLINOIS.
THIS STRATUS WILL SPREAD INTO THE COQUILLE AND UMPQUA VALLEYS OVERNIGHT AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION. OUR AREA WILL BE BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND TROUGHING OFFSHORE FROM CANADA. THE MODEL TREND HAS BEEN TO SLOW AND TRACK FARTHER NORTH A MODERATELY STRONG TROUGH AT THE END OF THE WEEK.
IF WE HAVE AREAS OF DENSE FOG IT IS MOST LIKELY ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA NORTH OF WARM FRONT. MOST OF THE WEEK WILL SEE TEMPERATURES 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE LATE SEPTEMBER NORMALS WHEN THE LONG-PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE BUILDS AGAIN OVER OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS.
952 PM EDT SUN SEP 20 2015 COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE NEW WEEK KEEPING THE WEATHER DRY. QUIET WEATHER ON TAP AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. EXPECT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 40S FOR MOST AREAS WITH EVEN SOME UPPER 30S IN THE COLDER SPOTS. RIDGING AT THE SURFACE WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD.
FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT A FEW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER EXTREME NORTHEAST TENNESSEE AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AS WEAK UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE AREA.
WEAK COLD FRONT STILL ON TRACK TO ARRIVE MID DAY TOMORROW. MODELS SHOWED THICKNESSES LOWERING AFTER 06Z WITH AN INITIAL SURGE OF COOLER AIR FROM THE N WHICH WILL HELP THE WINDS OVER THE W TO DIMINISH. THE SECONDARY SURGE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH S THROUGH THE AREA MON MORNING. GFS TIME-HEIGHTS SHOWED MOISTURE AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL TURN E TO SE ON TUE WHICH WILL RESULT IN AN INVERSION AND LIMITED MIXING.
THIS IS STILL THOUGH WARMER THAN AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. BROAD LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SPIN OFF THE CAROLINAS WITH A TROUGH TRAILING THE LOW INTO SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST WITH NORTHEASTERLY PREVAILING WINDS BEHIND IT MON-TUE.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL MAINLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.
A mid/upper-level trough will develop to the east of the region, while a ridge pokes northeast over our area.
1250 AM EDT MON SEP 21 2015 HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OVERHEAD ALLOWS WINDS TO DIE DOWN AND IT WILL BE A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES. THE SECOND NIGHT AFTER A COLD FRONT IS NORMALLY THE COLDEST NIGHT. AND THIS COULD BE THE CASE MONDAY NIGHT WHEN HIGH PRESSURE IS MORE FIRMLY IN PLACE AND WINDS GO CALM JUST ABOUT AREA WIDE. BUT STILL EXPECT THIS TO BE THE COOLER NIGHT FOR MANY AREAS ESPECIALLY ACROSS MAINE. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A LARGE BLOCKING HIGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE OUTLOOK PERIOD. NOCTURNAL FOG MORE WIDESPREAD MONDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE NESTLES IN.
A GENERALLY DRY COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO CROSS THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AFTER MIDNIGHT AND PUSH SLOWLY SOUTH. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND COOLER AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT.
A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL APPROACH THE REGION TONIGHT.
/ISSUED 329 PM CDT SUN SEP 20 2015/ MAIN HIGHLIGHTS OF THE FORECAST CONTINUE TO BE COOLER TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY. A SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WAS BUILDING INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE MID-SOUTH WITH A REMNANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE RED RIVER VALLEY.
CLOUDS REMAIN OVER EAST TN TONIGHT WITH POSSIBLE FOG AT TRI AFTER MIDNIGHT AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
Upper level ridge takes hold again starting on Monday.
DESPITE HIGH PRESSURE CTRD OVHD. MODELS PROG A TROUGH CURRENTLY DRAPED ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF TX. TO SHIFT SE THROUGH MON WITH THE HIGH SHIFTING W OF THE AREA.
1149 PM CDT SUN SEP 20 2015 COLD FRONT NEARING CLL BUT HAS SLOWED NOTICEABLY IN THE LAST 2 HOURS.
708 PM EDT SUN SEP 20 2015 AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE NORTH PART OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT.
751 PM EDT SUN SEP 20 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION OVER NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RIDGE IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION EARLY THIS EVENING. AND SRN VT EXCLUDING ERN WINDHAM HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS EAST AS UPPER ENERGY TO THE SOUTH LOOKS TO REMAIN SUPPRESSED SOUTH BY GRADUAL UPPER RIDGING BUILDING INTO OUR REGION.
1149 PM CDT SUN SEP 20 2015 Another quiet but cool night across central and southeast Illinois as high pressure remains in control of the local weather. Broad expanse of high pressure set up in the Midwest with the ridge axis stretched from the eastern Great Lakes back into Missouri. Dominant high pressure should give Central Illinois another quiet night. Winds will become light and variable under the ridge, with temps dropping into the upper 40s and lower 50s. High pressure centered over the Great Lakes and extending southwest across Illinois will gradually shift to the east over the first half of this week.
629 PM CDT SUN SEP 20 2015 Broad expanse of high pressure set up in the Midwest with the ridge axis stretched from the eastern Great Lakes back into Missouri. Dominant high pressure should give Central Illinois another quiet night. Winds will become light and variable under the ridge, with temps dropping into the upper 40s and lower 50s. High pressure centered over the Great Lakes and extending southwest across Illinois will gradually shift to the east over the first half of this week.
20Z WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS/WESTERN MN.
851 PM EDT SUN SEP 20 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A RETURN OF NEAR NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES FOR THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE COMING WEEK.
745 PM EDT SUN SEP 20 2015 UPPER TROUGH WILL SUPPORT SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE FOR RAIN OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH THE START OF THE WORK WEEK.
ALL INDICATING THAT THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OFF THE U. AND RIDGES DOWN OVER FLORIDA. NORTHEAST WIND PATTERN TO LAST TROUGH MID WEEK.