Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
/ISSUED 331 AM CDT SAT SEP 12 2015/ MORE FALL-LIKE AIRMASS HAS OVERSPREAD THE AREA AND WILL MAKE FOR A NICE WEEKEND WITH COOLER TEMPS AND LOWER DEWPOINTS. PRES FALLS IN THE HIGH PLAINS ALSO WILL SET THE STAGE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW LEVEL JET TONIGHT.
NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND THE HIGH NEAR 10KTS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING IN COOLER/DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION TODAY. THAT MAY REQUIRE SOME ATTENTION AS IT COULD KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES A LITTLE WARMER THAN GUIDANCE. EARLY IN THE NEW WEEK THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT EASTWARD AND REESTABLISH A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW OF WARMER MOISTURE LAIDEN AIR.
/ISSUED 718 AM CDT SAT SEP 12 2015/ STRONG IMPULSE IN BASE OF DEEP UPPER TROUGH EXPECTED TO SWING ACROSS THE REGION EARLY TONIGHT. BEHIND TROUGH. /ISSUED 256 AM CDT SAT SEP 12 2015/ BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER EASTERN U. HAS BROUGHT MUCH COOLER WEATHER THIS WEEKEND TO THE MID STATE. COLD FRONT. CHARACTERISTIC OF EARLY AUTUMN NOW MOVING INTO EASTERN TENNESSEE WITH MUCH COOLER CANADIAN AIR FILTERING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. 00Z UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS DO SHOW LIMITED MOISTURE IN THE MID WEST BUT SHORT WAVES HAVE A WAY OF FINDING IT ONCE NEARING THE BASE OF A TROUGH.
1031 AM EDT SAT SEP 12 2015 HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BRIEFLY TODAY.
/ISSUED 412 AM EDT SAT SEP 12 2015/ LONGWAVE TROUGH CONTINUING TO DIG SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS WITH RELATIVELY STRONG /80-100KT/ SOUTHERN STREAM UPR JET DRIVING THE RATHER DEEP MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. LEADING EDGE OF COOLER/DRIER AIR HOWEVER IS STILL BACK ACROSS WESTERN TENNESSEE/NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI. COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE SOUTH/EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING. COOLER/DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN AIDED BY NORTHWEST WINDS THAT COULD BE GUSTY AT TIMES. LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS SHOULD SWING ACROSS THE STATE BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY WITH -22C H5 COLD CORE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE MID 70S ACROSS THE I-20 CORRIDOR WITH ONLY MID TO UPR 60S ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS NEAR THE TN STATE LINE.
500 MB TROUGH OVER WISCONSIN-MICHIGAN MOVING EAST TODAY AND 500 MB HEIGHTS WILL RISE. SOME CIRRUS SPILLING OVER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED OVER NEVADA INTO ERN ND. LOTS OF SUN ON SUNDAY AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT EXPECT A SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WIND HELPING TO BOOST TEMPS EVEN HIGHER.
702 AM EDT SAT SEP 12 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL PROVIDE MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND.
TWO COLD FRONTS ARE NOW PASSING THROUGH THE AREA. WITH THAT SAID WE ARE WATCHING THE MOISTURE BEGIN TO RISE BACK NORTH AS THE MAIN TROUGH BEGINS TO DIG INTO THE SOUTHEAST AND A JET MAX IS SLIDING ALONG THE TROUGH INTO THE AREA. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT WE CAN ACTUALLY TALK OF TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 50S AND EVEN SOME UPPER 40S IN THE NATURALLY COOLER LOCATIONS IN THE NORTH SUNDAY MORNING.
1008 AM EDT SAT SEP 12 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL PROVIDE MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND.
MOST OF THESE STORMS ARE LOSING STEAM AS THEY MOVE FROM THE WARM GULF COAST WATERS TO THE COOLER LAND CAUSING SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING. BUT THE HIGHEST COVERAGE WILL BE FROM TAMPA BAY NORTHWARD ALONG THE NATURE COAST.
1139 AM CDT SAT SEP 12 2015 THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS WAS INDICATING RIDGE COMPLEX DUMPING DOWN WITH IT/S LEE SIDE PRESSURE GRADIENT STILL MOVING ACRS THE WESTERN GRT LKS INTO SOUTHERN MS RVR VALLEY. THIS FEATURE EMBEDDED IN A DEEP L/W TROF THAT HAS AN AXIS FROM THE EASTERN HUDSON BAY REGION. IF SKIES CAN REMAIN REASONABLY CLEAR AND CIRRUS STREAK DUMPING DOWN WITH UPPER JET ENERGY INTO THE TROF BASE CAN HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE TONIGHT OR SUNDAY MORNING.
718 AM CDT SAT SEP 12 2015 STRONG IMPULSE IN BASE OF DEEP UPPER TROUGH EXPECTED TO SWING ACROSS THE REGION EARLY TONIGHT. BEHIND TROUGH. /ISSUED 256 AM CDT SAT SEP 12 2015/ BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER EASTERN U. HAS BROUGHT MUCH COOLER WEATHER THIS WEEKEND TO THE MID STATE. COLD FRONT. CHARACTERISTIC OF EARLY AUTUMN NOW MOVING INTO EASTERN TENNESSEE WITH MUCH COOLER CANADIAN AIR FILTERING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. 00Z UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS DO SHOW LIMITED MOISTURE IN THE MID WEST BUT SHORT WAVES HAVE A WAY OF FINDING IT ONCE NEARING THE BASE OF A TROUGH.
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN.
/ISSUED 458 AM CDT SAT SEP 12 2015/ LATEST UA ANALYSIS AND WV IMAGERY SHOW LARGE UPR TROF ACRS THE CONUS EAST OF THE ROCKIES. ABUNDANT PACIFIC MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM ACRS THE GULF COAST STATES ON W-SW WINDS ALONG THE BASE OF THE TROF. MEANWHILE A SFC COLD FRONT. A TASTE OF FALL CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE NEAR TERM AS HIGH PRES BUILDS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TODAY.
914 AM EDT SAT SEP 12 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE AREA WILL SLOWLY MOVE OFF TO THE EAST THROUGH SUNDAY.
/ISSUED 351 AM CDT SAT SEP 12 2015/ HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO NORTH TEXAS BEHIND YESTERDAYS COLD FRONT WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL TODAY IN WHAT SHOULD BE A REALLY NICE DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S. ALL OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE INDICATES A SURGE OF MOISTURE INTO OUR WESTERN COUNTIES ABOUT 100MB DEEP CENTERED AROUND 700MB LATE TONIGHT. IT IS QUITE DRY BENEATH THE SATURATED LAYER THANKS TO OUR RECENT COLD FRONT.
A SURFACE PRESSURE TROUGH WILL SET UP WELL WEST OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THE AMPLIFIED WESTERN UPPER RIDGE AND EASTERN UPPER TROUGH PATTERN WILL UNDERGO CONSIDERABLE CHANGE SUNDAY. UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS LATE SUNDAY WHILE SOUTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL DIG IN ALONG THE WEST COAST. AN UPPER RIDGE THEN WILL PUMP UP FROM MEXICO ACROSS SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS AND EAST TOWARDS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
THE CWA WILL REMAIN BETWEEN THE EXITING HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL SLOWLY FLATTEN TODAY WITH A LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING AND WITH ONSHORE FLOW SLOWLY INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY.
LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE ENTIRE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ROCKIES REGION AS BROAD HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE WESTERN STATES.
1235 PM EDT SAT SEP 12 2015 HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BRIEFLY TODAY.
753 AM EDT SAT SEP 12 2015 AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING.
THIS MOISTURE WILL BE PULLED EASTWARD TODAY AS UPPER RIDGE AXIS FLATTENS. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT HAS BROUGHT THE UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER TO THE REGION THE PAST FEW DAYS WILL WEAKEN THROUGH SUNDAY AS ZONAL FLOW BUILDS INTO THE AREA.
WARMER AIR WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION SUNDAY AS A RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE ROCKIES.
1034 AM CDT SAT SEP 12 2015 COLD FRONT ALMOST TO THE COAST WITH A PREFRONTAL TROUGH OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. RUNNING A LITTLE COOLER THAN GRIDS THIS MORNING SO HAVE MADE SOME SHORT TERM TWEAKS THERE. CI SHIFTING INTO THE GULF BUT STILL HAVE A LITTLE SHALLOW RESIDUAL MOISTURE BETWEEN THE COLD FRONT AND THE PREFRONTAL TROUGH TO SUPPORT SOME RAGGED CU/SC THIS MORNING OVER THE AREAS SOUTH OF A WHARTON TO HOUSTON LINE BUT THIS SHOULD END QUICKLY AND EXPECT ABUNDANT SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON. 40 THE COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED SOUTH OF KCLL AND KUTS AS OF 11Z. A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM MONROE LA TO COLLEGE STATION TO SAN ANGELO.
1248 PM EDT SAT SEP 12 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE AREA WILL SLOWLY MOVE OFF TO THE EAST THROUGH SUNDAY.
DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST FROM SUNDAY THROUGH MID WEEK AT THIS POINT AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
As of the 15z obs, the cold front has made it through Defuniak Springs, Dothan, and Fort Gaines.
SOME MIXING WILL TAKE PLACE STARTING AN HOUR OR TWO BUT AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IN ILLINOIS DROPS SOUTH COUNTIES ALONG THE TENNESSEE RIVER WILL LIKELY STAY MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE ENOUGH FOR A POSSIBLE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCE ACROSS NW KANSAS ALONG A LEE TROUGH. A WARMER ELEVATED MIXED LAYER ON WED AFTERNOON. THE LEE TROUGH OVER NW KS WILL VENTURE FURTHER EAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA FOR THIS TIME FRAME. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL RETURN FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EASTWARD.
CLOUD COVER HAS KEPT TEMPS WARMER THAN EXPECTED. THE PATTERN FEATURES NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE PLAINS IN BETWEEN A WESTERN CONUS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AND TROUGH FROM THE GREAT LAKES SOUTH TOWARD THE GULF COAST STATES. AS WE HEAD THRU THE DAY HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AS THE WESTERN RIDGE AXIS BUILDS EAST. WITH THE THERMAL RIDGE AXIS REMAINING WEST OF OUR CWA. UNTIL THE WARMER AIR MOVES IN LATER IN THE WEEKEND.
All rain chances will rapidly diminish by early this evening as the 500mb trough swings E of the FA. Temps should be slightly warmer Sunday with full sun and less cool air advection.
Quick northerly flow aloft as strong jet dives south along west edge of deepening upper low to the northwest. The warm air advection and more cloud should keep lows a few degrees warmer than this morning. High temperatures should warm into the lower to middle 80s. Winds will remain from the south as the boundary layer remains mixed through Sunday night, so expect warmer overnight temps in the upper 50s to mid 60s.
Northeast winds will continue in the wake of a cold front, although will gradually shift around to the east and southeast tonight.
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL KEEP US UNSETTLED THROUGH SUNDAY.
1137 AM EDT SAT SEP 12 2015 AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING.
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT 08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER EASTERN NE/WESTERN IA. WATER VAPOR HAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN US WITH UPPER TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST. CI/AC OVERTOPPING RIDGE AND MOVING THROUGH DAKOTAS. PLEASANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES AND THERMAL RIDGE AMPLIFIES.
638 AM CDT SAT SEP 12 2015 A COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING. A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES. A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO TEXAS. A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS THIS MORNING WITH A LOWER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING INTO OUR AREA IN ITS WAKE. A DRIER AIRMASS IS BRIDGING THE FRONT AT THIS TIME.
754 AM EDT SAT SEP 12 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE AREA WILL SLOWLY MOVE OFF TO THE EAST THROUGH SUNDAY.
40 THE COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED SOUTH OF KCLL AND KUTS AS OF 11Z. A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM MONROE LA TO COLLEGE STATION TO SAN ANGELO.
/ISSUED 638 AM CDT SAT SEP 12 2015/ A COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING. A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES. A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO TEXAS. A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS THIS MORNING WITH A LOWER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING INTO OUR AREA IN ITS WAKE. A DRIER AIRMASS IS BRIDGING THE FRONT AT THIS TIME.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL PRODUCE A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER COLORADO TODAY AND TONIGHT. IT WILL BE WARMER TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO. OVERALL WILL KEEP A DRY FCST FOR SUN AND THEN HAVE 20-30% POPS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN FOR MON AFTN. THUS WILL KEEP IN A SLIGHT CHC OF AFTN TSTMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN BOTH DAYS. HIGHS ON THU MAY NOT BE QUITE AS WRM BUT READINGS WILL STILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S OVER NERN CO. HIGHS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS THE PLAINS.
NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND THE HIGH NEAR 10KTS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING IN COOLER/DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION TODAY. THAT MAY REQUIRE SOME ATTENTION AS IT COULD KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES A LITTLE WARMER THAN GUIDANCE. EARLY IN THE NEW WEEK THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT EASTWARD AND REESTABLISH A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW OF WARMER MOISTURE LADEN AIR.
This will be dropping into south central Illinois through midday as the associated large upper trough shifts eastward a bit. A deep 500 mb trough coincident with 500 mb temperatures as low as -24 C is centered over the western Great Lakes this morning with low level northerly flow over Lake Michigan.
NARROW MOISTURE PLUME INTO THE FRONTAL ZONE ON THE EASTERN FLANK A THE HIGH AMPLITUDE UPR TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT RAIN OVER THE UPPER OHIO REGION THIS MORNING. LOW CONVECTIVE THRESHOLDS UNDER THE ENCROACHING HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH AND LLVL FLOW OFF THE LAKES IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT ISOLD TO SCT SHOWERS.
A disorganized area of low pressure remains off the coast, with strong high pressure centered over the Great Basin.
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 74 54 74 51 / 20 10 10 0 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 72 52 70 49 / 40 50 10 0 OAK RIDGE, TN 71 53 70 49 / 40 40 10 0 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 70 50 68 45 / 60 50 20 0.
631 AM CDT SAT SEP 12 2015 FOR 12Z TAFS /ISSUED 533 AM CDT SAT SEP 12 2015/ CONDITIONS ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE CONTINUE TO BE DOMINATED BY AN AMPLIFIED LONGWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM HUDSON BAY SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. ONE DISTINCT VORTICITY MAXIMA EMBEDDED WITHIN THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO EJECT NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN QUEBEC THROUGHOUT THE DAY. AS A BROAD UPPER LOW CUTS OFF ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE TRUE SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PRESS SOUTHEASTWARD THIS MORNING AND SHOULD CROSS MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 10-14Z. ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL FLOW HAS ALREADY VEERED TO NW IN WAKE OF PREFRONTAL TROUGH PASSAGE LATE YESTERDAY. HIGHS TODAY WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE LOWER/MID 70S. WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE LOWER/MID 70S ONCE AGAIN.
ONE LAST DAY OF HAVING A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WITH POSSIBLE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY. THE WINDS AND LOW RHS WILL SPREAD TO THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN ON SUNDAY.
IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. AN ATLANTIC RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS THIS AFTERNOON. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO TODAY.
A ridge of high pressure was positioned over the western half of the CONUS this morning. while at the same time an upper low was digging southeastward through the northern portion of the Mississippi Valley. This has allowed for cooler and drier air to filter into the CWA. This cloud cover combined with cold air advection underneath high pressure should aid in high temperatures this afternoon staying in the 70s for most of the CWA.
A northwesterly flow will improve across the central high plains today as an upper level ridge axis, located over the western United States at 00z Saturday, weakens as it moves east across the Rockies and out into the Northern Plains. Afternoon highs today are expected to range from the mid 70s in central Kansas to the lower 80s. Based on the expected winds overnight and higher dew points returning the lows should range from the mid 50s in central Kansas to the upper 50s in far southwest Kansas.
1117 AM EST MON JAN 4 2016 A RE-ENFORCING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT.
305 PM EST MON JAN 4 2016 LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL END EARLY TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. THIS HIGH WILL THEN PROVIDE DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING TO ABOVE NORMAL ONCE AGAIN. LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE HIGH SINGLE NUMBERS ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH LOW SINGLE NUMBERS ACROSS THE INTERIOR SOUTHERN TIER. THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH THAT BROUGHT THE ARCTIC AIRMASS INTO THE REGION WILL DEPART ALLOWING A RIDGE TO BUILD INTO THE AREA.
As ridge axis pushes east across the state, winds will trend toward the southeast after midnight. Most locations should fall into the lower 20s overnight, but some teens likely across the I-74 corridor.
SOME BREAKS IN THE LOW CLOUDS WERE OCCURRING EARLY THIS MORNING.
High pressure over the northern Plains will build into the Great Lakes area today causing subsidence aloft to help clear out some of the widespread cloud cover over the region. near or slightly cooler than yesterday with highs from around 30 to 35. Winds will start the day with a light NW breeze 10-15 mph then decrease to N 5-10 mph as the approaching high pressure center brings a weaker pressure gradient across the area. Southwesterly flow reestablishes itself in the midlevels and warmer air filters into the region. A return of the warmer temperatures will also signal some more moisture feeding into the Midwest.
EXPECT CLOUDS TO CONTINUE DIMINISHING THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO SETTLE INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 20S. SOME SPOTS ALONG THE HIGHLAND RIM AND THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU MIGHT EVEN SEE THE TEMP DROP INTO THE UPPER TEENS.
IFR CIGs aren't out of the question, but believe the NAM is too aggressive with IFR ceilings as it may take a little more time to saturate the low levels. /issued 357 AM CST MON JAN 4 2016/ (Today and Tonight) An upper ridge over the central CONUS this morning will build to the east through tonight as an upper trough now over the Pacific coastline moves over the western CONUS. Afternoon highs today will range from the mid to upper 40s over the Big Country to the lower 50s south of the Big Country.
THIS IS ALL COURTESY OF A COLD FRONT WHICH IS IN SOUTHERN TN. THUS THE LOW CLOUDS. THE WRAP ARND LOW CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO DISSIPATE ARND 00Z AS THE UPPER LOW OVER THE ERN GREAT LAKES MOVES INTO THE NERN US.
HIGH PRESSURE FROM SURFACE TO ALOFT WILL GENERALLY RESULT IN SUNNY SKIES TODAY WITH CIRRUS RETURNING TONIGHT. DRY WITH HIGH PRES RIDGING SOUTH INTO THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT RESULTING IN N-NE WINDS AROUND 10 KT OR LESS. /ISSUED 404 AM CST MON JAN 4 2016/ STARTING OFF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH A COLD HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL BRING THE POSSIBILITY OF A LIGHT FREEZE AND FROST TO PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST BY MID WEEK.
259 PM MST MON JAN 4 2016 A RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE PLAINS TONIGHT AND THEN SHIFT EAST TUESDAY WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. THE HRRR INDICATES THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME PATCHY FREEZING FOG EARLY TUESDAY MORNING FOR A FEW HOURS NEAR NORTON AND GRAHAM COUNTIES. PLAN TO INSERT SOME PATCHY FREEZING FOG IN THAT AREA.
245 PM CST MON JAN 4 2016 V imagery shows the upper trough has made landfall on the west coast, and tilting negatively inland. Ahead of this feature, SW flow aloft was noted over West Texas and Southeast New Mexico, as the region is under the western side of a ridge extending across Texas. Yesterday's cold front has kept temps below yesterday's, although high clouds ahead of the next system, a lingering snowpack over SE NM/the NW Permian Basin, and stratus over the Rio Grande Valley are doing their part to keep temps down, as well. Everything is still shaping up for a minor winter event overnight over the Guadalupes and SE NM as the west coast trough approaches. Latest models bring precip into the NW zones after 06Z Tuesday, when sfc temps will be at or blo freezing there.
DRY CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED THROUGH MID WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES ARE DOWNRIGHT COLD WITH UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S NORTH TO THE LOWER 50S SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON. BUT SHELTERED VALLEY LOCATIONS SHOULD EASILY DROP DOWN INTO THE LOWER 20S.
BUT WE ARE ALSO ON THE EDGE OF THE HIGH CLOUD SHIELD. EXCEPT IN THE LOW LYING SPOTS WHICH ARE STILL UNDER STRONG INVERSIONS. MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING A WEAK UPPER TROUGH TO MOVE ACROSS COLORADO ON TUESDAY.
but a tad warmer than Monday with a little more sunshine.
237 PM MST MON JAN 4 2016 WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING UPPER LOW MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON WHILE THE RIDGE ALOFT GETS SHIFTED INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS LOW IS SENDING A SWATH OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE INTO SOUTHWEST COLORADO AND WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD INTO THE MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS ON TUESDAY BUT COVERAGE WILL BE ON THE LOW SIDE AS QG ASCENT WILL BE NEUTRAL TO WEAK UPWARD ASCENT AND WEAK OROGRAPHICS. A SHORT WAVE RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE STATE TUESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT BASIN.
SUBJECTIVE 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM SASK THROUGH MT/WESTERN SD/WESTERN NEB/EASTERN CO INTO NM. WITH ANOTHER UPPER LOW COMING ASHORE IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. 850MB RIDGE AXIS EXTENDED FROM HIGH IN SOUTHERN CO/NORTHEAST NM/OK-TX PANHANDLES THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS AND CENTRAL SD/ND INTO MB.
1234 PM EST MON JAN 4 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION LATER TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
12Z BOI RAOB HAD A FREEZING-RAIN TEMPERATURE PROFILE WITH A SUB-FREEZING LAYER FROM THE SURFACE TO 1900 FEET AGL AND AN ABOVE-FREEZING LAYER FROM 1900 FEET TO 5000 FEET AGL WITH TEMP AS HIGH AS 36F. THE TOP OF THE ABOVE-FREEZING LAYER SHOULD BE NEAR 4500 FEET AGL TONIGHT WHILE SURFACE TEMPS DROP BELOW FREEZING ABOVE THE SNOW SURFACE. LATE TONIGHT A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL BRING LIGHT PCPN IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. 05 INCH AND WE HAVE A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN IN THE UPPER TREASURE VALLEY AND PART OF THE WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY. THE LOWER TREASURE VALLEY WILL BE COLDER AND WILL HAVE ONLY A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW. IN OUR JUDGMENT THE FREEZING RAIN DOES NOT LOOK SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH FOR AN ADVISORY.
1246 PM MST MON JAN 4 2016 A RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE PLAINS TONIGHT AND THEN SHIFT EAST TUESDAY WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. THE HRRR INDICATES THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME PATCHY FREEZING FOG EARLY TUESDAY MORNING FOR A FEW HOURS NEAR NORTON AND GRAHAM COUNTIES. PLAN TO INSERT SOME PATCHY FREEZING FOG IN THAT AREA.
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL PULL EAST AND ALLOW WINDS TO QUICKLY TURN NORTHEASTERLY ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA.
was pushing a low level cloud deck on the backside of the low into Northeast Oklahoma and far Northwest Arkansas this morning. Latest trends with the low clouds have been to slow/stall within the higher terrain of far Northwest Arkansas.
TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE LOWER 50S ACROSS THE REGION BUT SOME CHANGES ARE ON THE WAY. HIGH CLOUDINESS SHOULD INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW LIKELY RESULTING IN TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY.
HIGH CLOUDS HAVE MOVED OVER MUCH OF THE REGION KEEPING MINIMUMS WARMER THAN PREVIOUS FORECASTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN PLAINS. UPPER TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD BRINGING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE REGION. LEE TROUGH WILL RESULT IN SOME GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS ON THE PLAINS WHICH WILL AID IN WARMING. SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WILL BOOST TEMPS OVER THE PLAINS INTO THE LOWER 50S TUE AFTERNOON. PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS HAD CLOSED OFF THE UPPER LOW OVER ERN CO.
310 PM CST MON JAN 4 2016 SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO BE SLIGHTLY DELAYED WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. OR UNFORTUNATELY MORE LIKELY FREEZING DRIZZLE TO FORM ON THE CAPROCK EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WHEN TEMPERATURES PROBABLY WILL STILL BE A LITTLE BELOW FREEZING. WE EXPECT ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES AND MORE CLEARLY LIQUID PRECIPITATION CHANCES TUESDAY. THE TRICKY PART IS DETERMINING THE PHASE OF SUCH PRECIP AS A LACK OF GOOD REINFORCING COLD AIR AND CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR THE FREEZING MARK. HAVE INCLUDED AN AREA OF SLIGHT CHANCE OF THE DREADED FREEZING DRIZZLE FOR THE CENTRAL SOUTH PLAINS OVERNIGHT TUESDAY.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR VANCOUVER BRITISH COLUMBIA THIS MORNING WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTH AND EAST TODAY.
UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE PLAINS FOR TODAY.
1206 PM EST MON JAN 4 2016 UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION BRINGS SNOW SHOWERS TODAY.
909 AM PST MON JAN 4 2016 LOWERED MAXT A BIT FOR TODAY DUE TO EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND COOLER PREVIOUS DAY HIGHS. A WEAK UPPER TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. MORNING TEMPERATURES IN SOME WEST SIDE VALLEYS WILL BE NEAR FREEZING AS THE FIRST AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN ARRIVE. HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN FOR THE KLAMATH RIVER. BUT THERE IS STILL A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN.