Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Water vapor loop indicated upper level trough/jet streak from southern SASK to eastern MT. Trough will roll upper ridge over the area and send a frontal boundary south across the Red River Valley for today and tonight. Next upper level low off the Pacific northwest will move across SASK and MAN Sun night. Good upper ridge will precede trough as well as thermal ridging. Another cold front will sweep across the area Sun night for another round of potentially strong storms. 500 mb flow pattern is west-southwest as 500 mb high is over the mid Mississippi valley Biggest issue is placement and movement of upper low which moves northeast in the flow into the northern plains.
Meanwhile further southwest, upper heights will rise across the remainder of the region thanks to a building dome of high pressure. Mixing up to around 800mb will yield afternoon high temperatures in the lower to middle 90s. Hot weather will continue into Saturday, as upper ridging remains firmly in place over the region. With 592dm heights centered over Illinois, the boundary will struggle southward into the heart of the ridge.
609 AM CDT FRI JUN 10 2016 During the night an upper-deck cyclone was cut-off just off the WA Coast while a STRONG mid-upper deck high was centered primarily over AZ.
Short term forecast remains on track for now as an upper level low slowly spins over the forecast area through the day. Clouds and mountain showers linger through the overnight period as the upper low gradually opens up into a long wave trough.
935 AM EDT FRI JUN 10 2016 High pressure builds today and Saturday.
1009 AM CDT FRI JUN 10 2016 Skies are sunny across the forecast area this morning with temperatures in the low to mid 80s. /issued 335 AM CDT FRI JUN 10 2016/ An upper level height ridge will remain centered over the lower Mississippi River Valley today through Saturday. High temperatures this afternoon will likely reach into the lower and middle 90s with lows tonight ranging from the middle 60s to lower 70s. Stagnant conditions associated with the upper ridge and weak surface winds will likely lead to a period of poor air quality for today.
mainly in the higher terrain of SE OK and WC AR as hints of a weakness develop under the upper ridge.
Upper low will move inland over the Pacific NW today. At the same time, a cold front will move into Western Montana this afternoon and into Central Montana tonight. Will see strong enough east winds tonight and Saturday morning in tight surface gradient north of the low for a Lake Wind Advisory for the east half of Fort Peck Lake. A thermal ridge combined with partly cloudy skies will allow for good daytime heating in this area. A cold front will move east along this inverted trough during the afternoon and with very unstable conditions (lifted index as low as -12 and cape 5000 j/kg) will see thunderstorms develop along and ahead of this front with some severe thunderstorms likely. The cold front moves to the east Saturday Night and thunderstorms will diminish after midnight.
645 AM CDT FRI JUN 10 2016 324 AM CDT A warmer and drier day is expected today and the hot and humid conditions continue Saturday. A warm front lies just north of a Peru to Kankakee to Rensselaer line and it will continue north this morning. Expecting convection to form well northwest of the warning area closer to the forcing of the cold front over Minnesota. Dewpoints remain in the mid 60s overnight while lows drop into the low 70s leading to a sticky night. The heat continues Saturday with highs possibly even a degree or two warmer leading to heat indices around 100 degrees. Another round of storms form along the cold front in Wisconsin. Winds shift to northeast behind the cold front and cooler air moves in.
A warm front will lift through the area late tonight into Saturday.
721 AM EDT FRI JUN 10 2016 High pressure will prevail today before moving offshore this weekend.
An upper low will bring scattered showers and cool weather to western Washington through Saturday.
1017 AM EDT FRI JUN 10 2016 High pressure will really build into the region today from the Ohio Valley. promoting a sunny to mostly sunny sky and warmer temperatures. readings in the lower 90s will be common over the Southern Valley and SW NC. Chattanooga Airport, TN 93 66 94 70 / 0 0 10 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 90 63 91 68 / 0 0 10 0 Oak Ridge, TN 91 63 92 68 / 0 0 10 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 88 59 90 63 / 0 0 10 10.
At 8 AM MDT cold front extended from near Spokane, WA, through Burns, OR, through Redding, CA. Upper trough slowly swings onshore over the Pac NW today. An accompanying cold front will push showers into western Baker and Harney counties this morning, advancing to the OR/ID border by early afternoon. East of the border, the cold frontal passage will be marked by a sharp wind shift, but little chance for precipitation as the airmass is fairly dry. The upper trough continues eastward on Saturday with much of the region remaining dry. Temperatures are much cooler, with highs 5-10 degrees below normal.
1004 AM EDT FRI JUN 10 2016 Weak upper ridging remains in place this morning centered to our southeast, with plentiful moisture continuing to stream over the peninsula.
An upper ridge will become centered over Colorado this afternoon. The highest heat indices of 99 to 102 will remain mostly across Keya Paha county, although Holt county will be near 99. Temperatures will remain in the mid-90s through the weekend as the upper level ridge continues to build across the central US.
653 AM CDT FRI JUN 10 2016 A dominant Central Plains ridge will provide tranquil weather across North and Central TX today. A weakness in the ridging aloft should allow the sea breeze to be active again today.
(Issued 303 AM CDT FRI JUN 10 2016) Another warm, dry and sunny day on tap! With the mid level ridge strengthening itself over the SE today, highs will be able to top out a few deg warmer than yesterday, in the lower 90s for most locations. The warming trend continues tonight with lows warmer than previous nights, in the middle to upper 60s with an increase in mid level clouds from the SW later in the evening.
the storms develop over the higher terrain 21-22z then move across the urban corridor late this aftn and evening. Upper ridge will be over Colorado today. There is a bit of a moisture plume through the ridge axis which has been slow to wane overnight. This should help to feed some high-based convection on Friday afternoon and may keep the temperatures slightly cooler than they would be otherwise. By 12z Saturday the upper level ridge will have shifted east of the state increasing SSW flow. mainly over the higher terrain and Palmer Divide.
618 AM CDT FRI JUN 10 2016 Upper level ridge is building over the region today. Since highs yesterday were up in the low 90s across most of the western 1/2 of the CWFA, and with warmer temperatures aloft over the area think we should easily get above the MAV and MET guidance so I bumped highs today a couple of degrees across the area. Carney Saturday still looks dry and hot as the upper ridge will build in over the area. Will keep going with highs in the lower to mid 90s which is above MOS guidance.
/issued 335 AM CDT FRI JUN 10 2016/ An upper level height ridge will remain centered over the lower Mississippi River Valley today through Saturday. High temperatures this afternoon will likely reach into the lower and middle 90s with lows tonight ranging from the middle 60s to lower 70s. Stagnant conditions associated with the upper ridge and weak surface winds will likely lead to a period of poor air quality for today.
The limited instability is supported by a weak upper level trough embedded within a broad ridge that will continue to maintain a shear axis extending from NE Kansas southward into the South Plains through the short term. Max temps were adjusted cooler slightly as models begin to get handle on cloud coverage across West Texas. Disturbance under ridge will be nearly overhead by Saturday morning before it becomes hard to really discern in the mid levels. Ridge will continue to slowly drift eastward as next trough settles in across the Western CONUS.
Shower and thunderstorm chances will increase Saturday as a cold front approaches and crosses the region Saturday night. Some sharpening of PoPs was introduced this morning, given the low likelihood of precipitation occurring. Dry atmosphere remains in place through the day and the ridge to the west drifts eastward. The warm front finally gets a good eastward kick late tonight and into Saturday, as stronger low level flow develops and ridge shifts further east.
1230 PM EDT FRI JUN 10 2016 High pressure builds today and Saturday.
942 AM MDT FRI JUN 10 2016 An upper low along the Pacific northwest coast will continue to provide a southwest flow aloft to the forecast area today. Upper trough remains anchored over the Pacific Northwest.
An upper-level ridge will build over the region through the period. At the surface, high pressure will slip progressively farther east of the area.
1100 AM CDT FRI JUN 10 2016 With a high pressure ridge to the east and warm front to the north. Central Illinois is already in the low to mid 80s. Temps expected to climb into the lower 90s this afternoon. Meanwhile further southwest, upper heights will rise across the remainder of the region thanks to a building dome of high pressure. Mixing up to around 800mb will yield afternoon high temperatures in the lower to middle 90s. Hot weather will continue into Saturday, as upper ridging remains firmly in place over the region. With 592dm heights centered over Illinois, the boundary will struggle southward into the heart of the ridge.
1043 AM EDT FRI JUN 10 2016 High pressure will prevail today before moving offshore this weekend.
657 AM CDT FRI JUN 10 2016 High pressure will keep quiet weather over the area again today. Today Through Saturday Night A large ridge of high pressure encompasses most of the U. This upper ridge will continue over the center part of the country through Saturday night. Upper low pressure will strengthen over the west coast and the northeast U. A weak warm front will move north through the state Saturday.
Isolated storms are expected to develop later this afternoon across the higher terrain and move east this evening.
Compared to yesterday we are running about 5 degrees warmer so far with slightly higher boundary layer moisture. Given the current trends and expected boundary layer mixing expect highs in the lower 90s in the most areas.
Model runs continue to show the highest precipitation probabilities over the southeast half of our CWA, especially the southern Pennyrile region of western Kentucky. As the low moves off to the east Friday evening, precipitation chances will diminish from the west accordingly, with the entire being dry after midnight.
the upper level short wave trough over western oklahoma into northwest texas will continue to move to the northeast tonight.
Cannot rule out some very light precip with the vicinity of the upper trough to our northwest but coverage wise. /issued 700 PM CDT THU MAY 19 2016/ For the ArkLaTex, a vigorous upper low over OK/KN is moving NE and has a large dry slot moving in overhead, pushing rain areas out. All operational models are not able to disseminate the massive mcs over the nw Gulf attm and thus is effect of cutting off inflow into the trough axis overtaking our region.
1105 PM EDT THU MAY 19 2016 A weak upper level low will cross the area overnight.
Light precipitation will continue to spread through NE OK/NW AR in advance of upper low. The low clouds/fog will likely persist during the morning hours given weak low level wind fields/limited mixing. Light precipitation will continue to spread into NE OK/NW AR this evening in advance of upper low. The low clouds/fog will likely persist during the morning hours given weak low level wind fields.
Dry weather conditions expected on Friday with warmer temperatures but low clouds could keep values in check somewhat.
Light precipitation will continue to spread into NE OK/NW AR this evening in advance of upper low. The low clouds/fog will likely persist during the morning hours given weak low level wind fields.
738 PM EDT THU MAY 19 2016 19z SFC analysis shows high pressure moving through the northern Ohio Valley while low pressure is developing to the south. The models are in good agreement aloft through the short term as they all take the weak ridging currently overhead off to the east overnight allowing a developing trough to spread into the Ohio Valley on Friday.
742 PM EDT THU MAY 19 2016 High pressure with mild dry air, will build over the region Tonight and Friday.
Strong winds will develop once again tomorrow, and as such, upgraded the high wind watch for northeast nye county to a wind advisory.
809 PM EDT THU MAY 19 2016 High pressure will build to the east coast through Friday.
Expect the boundary layer to saturate and produce widespread areas of low clouds and fog with some very light rain possible as weak lift being generated below 700mb as a weak mid level short wave trough lifts across the eastern sections of the forecast area early Friday morning. High temperatures will be 5-10 degrees warmer than today.
Evening water vapor satellite pics showing upper low centered off the central Oregon coast. The low will edge inland overnight as it tracks to the OR/CA border by 12z. Energy and moisture wrapping around the low will work into southeast Oregon and southwest Idaho late tonight increasing shower development from south to north. Scattered showers spreading north across the Nevada border late tonight and over all of southwest Idaho and southeast Oregon by 18z, becoming numerous over the higher terrain.
upper low was located over the sc KS area and flow aloft was from the N-NW. Scattered showers will continue over the higher trrn with more isold activity expected over the valleys and the plains adjacent to the mtns into the early evening hours.
A few storms developed this afternoon along the Gulf Coast seabreeze in north Florida, however, the majority of the convection this afternoon developed along a stationary/warm frontal boundary across south Georgia. The highest rainfall report we received was 4.
741 PM EDT THU MAY 19 2016 Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will be coming to an end this evening as an upper level low pressure system moves east of the area.
/issued 327 PM CDT THU MAY 19 2016/ Conditions throughout the Mid-South today are more reminiscent of mid October than mid May with temperature readings only topping out in the low to mid 70s, dew points ranging from the low 40s to the mid 50s, and mostly clear skies. However, no severe storms are expected due to the area being worked over by the time the cold front moves through the area.
1155 PM CDT THU MAY 19 2016 For the ArkLaTex, a vigorous upper low over OK/KN is moving NE and has a large dry slot overhead. Cannot rule out some very light precip with the vicinity of the upper trough to our northwest but coverage wise. All operational models are not able to disseminate the massive mcs over the nw Gulf attm and thus is effect of cutting off inflow into the trough axis overtaking our region.
742 PM EDT THU MAY 19 2016 An upper trough of low pressure will move across the region tonight, with showers and thunderstorms coming to an end.
718 PM EDT THU MAY 19 2016 High pressure building southeast into the region will bring a clear to partly cloudy and chilly night tonight.
707 PM EDT THU MAY 19 2016 High pressure builds today giving a brief dry period.
704 PM EDT THU MAY 19 2016 High pressure builds today giving a brief dry period.
Will be cool Friday morning, especially in the northern counties, as effective cold front slides offshore and ushers in drier air.
Surface cold front has shifted through east Idaho this evening.
Rain will end from west to east on Friday with the passage of the upper trough while the sfc front moves east as high pres builds in behind it. Dry weather is expected to prevail through the weekend as upper ridging moves east over the area.
806 PM EDT THU MAY 19 2016 A series of low pressure systems will move northeastward along a stalled front in the forecast area through Friday.
The combination of deep mixing (up to 750 mb) and the clockwise circulation around the high pressure area caused surface dew points to be 5 to 10F lower than the MOS guidance. On Friday afternoon, a short wave trough, currently over eastern Kansas, will move east northeast through the Mid Mississippi River Valley.
A cold front has moved into Eastern Montana, east of KHVR and KLWT, Thunderstorm activity has diminished and will continue to diminish as the system moves east. Surface cold front continues to move eastward through Montana late this afternoon through this evening.
741 PM EDT THU MAY 19 2016 A series of low pressure systems will move northeastward along a stalled front in the forecast area through Friday.
732 PM EDT THU MAY 19 2016 Aviation A high pressure ridge will continue in control of the weather pattern through the rest of the week and weekend.
Also scaled back stratus until after midnight as recent drying from about 2000-8000 feet (in the wake of an upper trough axis) has prevented aggressive re-saturation of this layer despite continued moist southeasterly surface flow.
zonal flow to weak ridging aloft will provide for a quiet weather pattern.
1005 PM EDT THU MAY 19 2016 An upper trough of low pressure will move across the region tonight, with showers and thunderstorms coming to an end.
High pressure located over Michigan this afternoon lead to diurnal CU and pleasant weather conditions. Highs were reaching the low 70s with dewpoints dropping into the 30s and 40s with light winds. As this high shifts east through the short term, return SW flow will bring in high clouds and a schc for rain across the southernmost CWA. Friday looks to be cloudy and slightly cooler than today as high clouds take over. With the high clouds in place, have decreased temps slightly from SuperBlend.
Tonight and Friday Main forecast challenge remains on temperatures as an area of high pressure over the Great Lakes prevents any potential for precipitation. The 19z MSAS surface analysis indicated an area of high pressure extended from the Central Plains NEWD into the Great Lakes. An area of low pressure was situated over Central MT, with a tight pressure gradient over the Northern and Central Plains. NE WI will continue to reside on the backside of the high pressure tonight. Instead, have mentioned patchy frost in the forecast for North- Central WI and generally taken min temperatures into the lower to middle 40s elsewhere. Therefore, have maintained a dry forecast for NE WI with max temperatures similar to Thursday (a bit warmer temperatures aloft, but more clouds expected).
The vigorous upper low spinning over the central Plains is expected to lift northeast into the Midwest tomorrow. High pressure ridge drifting eastward this evening, and light and variable winds will slowly become more east/southeasterly overnight. Upper level heights will begin to build in response to upstream troughing over the West Coast.
Windy conditions will continue through Friday night as a strong area of low pressure approaches the area.
That upper low will start to pull east of the area on Friday. By Friday night, upper level ridging will amplify across the High Plains, with the low level jet increasing across the I-35 corridor in Kansas.
Surface cold front continues to move eastward through Montana late this afternoon through this evening.
The departing upper trough, light winds and already minimal temperature/dewpoint spreads likely means fog development as we get into the late night and early Friday morning hours. 30 The upper trough that brought all the rain to North and Central Texas this morning will continue to move east of the region overnight. the low levels will remain near saturation through the night which will result in some patchy fog and drizzle.
As the upper trough now located over the Panhandles departs, mean ridging will build in. Low stratus should clear during the morning with much warmer conditions expected tomorrow.
Timing of the convection will be the key to daytime max temps as expect mid/upper 80s across SE GA and upper 80s/near 90 across NE FL and with dewpoints into the lower 70s will see heat indices into the middle 90s.
GAH A large upper trough cutting off over the pacific nw is progged to continue dropping south tonight.
759 PM EDT THU MAY 19 2016 High pressure building southeast into the region will bring a clear to partly cloudy and chilly night tonight.
724 PM EDT THU MAY 19 2016 Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will be coming to an end this evening as an upper level low pressure system moves east of the area.
Another active afternoon anticipated on Friday with perhaps some additional enhancement from a mid-level disturbance and cooler temperatures aloft. Weak high pressure ridge extending from the Atlantic into the Gulf of Mexico will provide a light/gentle south/southwest breeze.
Rain will return with Friday night low pressure. Alterations for the early eve update included insertion of a "patchy frost" mention for areas north and east of Clarion as well as the ridge zones. With dry high pressure settling over the Upper Ohio Valley Region, models have overdone dewpoints, especially the NAM, and some downward adjustments to temperature and fog mention were warranted. The high is progged for erosion on Friday with warm, moist advection, in advance of low pressure moving up the Ohio Valley, supporting increased cloud cover and seasonably warm temperature.
518 PM MDT THU MAY 19 2016 20z surface analysis had lee trough over central MT into central CO with nice southerly flow over the CWA. Convergence along lee trough assisting high based convection over northeast WY per local radar. Storms will move slowly east this afternoon and evening, moving into an area of 250-500J/kg MLCAPE created by mid-upper 40s dew point pooling ahead of lee trough. Boundary layer moisture continues to increase on southerly flow with lee trough moving little. Given rising heights and implied subsidence over the CWA, thunderstorms may be few and far between and likely rooted near terrain or occur along lee trough.
1237 AM EDT FRI MAY 20 2016 An upper trough of low pressure will move across the region tonight, with showers and thunderstorms coming to an end.
1155 PM CDT THU MAY 19 2016 Closed low over the Pacific Northwest. Ridge from the northern plains into central Canada. There is closed low over the northeast conus with an upper trough along the eastern seaboard. With instability some increasing moisture along the trough will keep thunderstorms in the forecast.
Dry conditions and warmer daytime temperatures Friday. Low pressure will return this weekend resulting in breezy to windy conditions along with slightly cooler temperatures.
1155 PM EDT THU MAY 19 2016 While VFR conditions are expected throughout the forecast, cirrus will thicken Friday afternoon/evening as low pressure lifts towards the southern Ohio Valley. CIGS will then lower to perhaps 8-10kft late Friday night along the I-94 corridor as this low moves into southern Ohio.
1000 PM EDT THU MAY 19 2016 High pressure building southeast into the region will bring a clear to partly cloudy and chilly night tonight.
652 PM CDT THU MAY 19 2016 High pressure ridge drifting eastward this evening, and light and variable winds will slowly become more east/southeasterly overnight. Upper level heights will begin to build in response to upstream troughing over the West Coast.
Evening water vapor imagery and objective analysis show an upper low spinning across the Pacific Northwest, with the associated surface boundary extending downstream across northern Utah. Precipitation is forecast to quickly erode overnight as the upstream upper low drops south along the coast.
In addition to the lowering cigs, rain will spread from west to east across the area Friday morning.