Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
152 AM MST Sat Nov 19 2022 At the beginning of the short term period, the latest RAP analysis shows the CWA underneath the positively tilted axis of an upper air trough giving the CWA a northwesterly flow aloft. Going into the evening hours, models continue the northwesterly flow over the CWA going through the night as the upper air trough slightly moves eastward with a ridge trailing in the west.
225 AM CST Sat Nov 19 2022 Key Messages: -A cold front passing through the area early this morning, brings clouds and a chance for flurries across north central Nebraska through mid morning.
1135 PM CST Fri Nov 18 2022 (Tonight) Broad troughing was in place over the greater North American domain, helping to continue colder than average temperatures for much of the CONUS. Highs today warmed mostly into the lower 50s, which is still ~10 degrees below seasonable norms.
The inversion will strengthen Saturday night through Sunday night as an upper ridge along the coast moves inland and over our CWA.
A positive PNA pattern brought cold air into the region as temperatures struggled to warm above freezing today. A Canadian high pressure center had shifted into the Central Plains, and will continue to progress east overnight. For Saturday, warmer temperatures are expected with highs in the upper 30s and lower 40s. Another sunny day is expected on Sunday and will warm afternoon temps into the low to mid 40s.
(Today) Current temperatures are in the lower 20s to lower 30s across the TN Valley, falling roughly 10-18 degrees below our climatological normal low temp for this time of year (~40 degrees F). Our normal high temperatures for this time of year are in the lower 60s, so these are also roughly 10-15 degrees below normal! These aforementioned unseasonably cold temperatures are due to arctic air sweeping down from the Great Lakes region into the Southeast-- stemming from a mid level vort max out of a strong upper level low over the Hudson Bay.
Large upper trough from Hudson Bay into the Eastern U. At the surface several weak frontal boundaries to move into the area but high pressure N of the area producing tightening gradient for dry conditions and occasionally gusty NE winds today into tonight. On Sunday the pattern is expected to become more unsettled as a series of upper level disturbances rotate around the base of the upper trough through the region.
742 AM CST Sat Nov 19 2022 Lake effect snow showers continue to track southeast and are now from around Bismarck and New Salem southeast to the Selfridge and Linton. On the synoptic scale, water vapor imagery nicely shows the cyclonic circulation over our region associated with deep upper level trough extending from Hudson Bay to the western Great Lakes. The Northern Plains remains in between this upper low and an upper level ridge over the western CONUS coast. The low chance pops associated with the warm front should shift east of our area this evening.
Temperatures generally range from the lower 30s to the lower 40s. A few locations north of a Sterling City to Brownwood line have fallen to freezing or cooler. Farther south and west from the Ozona area, north to around Sterling City, temperatures and dewpoint values are within one or two degrees of each other, and so have added some patchy fog and drizzle to Crockett county, with freezing drizzle/fog in the Sterling County area. Will expand the freezing drizzle/fog south into Irion County from 12Z to 15Z this morning, but expect Crockett to remain above freezing for the most part, and escape the light freezing precip. Will keep precip all liquid at this time, as forecast lows in these areas range from freezing to a few degrees above.
Key Messages: -A cold front passing through the area early this morning, brings clouds and a chance for flurries across north central Nebraska through mid morning.
Strongest winds will be across the higher terrain of the North and East Bay interior hills, but then weaken rapidly late tonight into early Saturday morning.
531 AM CST Sat Nov 19 2022 The longwave mid/upper trough over much of the CONUS is beginning to slide eastward this morning.
Surface observations depict a cold front stretching southwest from Red Wing MN, to Sioux City IA.
Highs this aftn over nern CO will be warmer as readings reach the mid 30s to lower 40s. Temperatures in the higher valleys will drop below zero and have lowered them from guidance values.
310 AM MST Sat Nov 19 2022 The weak ridge will be building off to the west today, holding our flow from the north, but not really bringing anything along with it, at least this weekend. A system passing through central Canada today will help bring our winds back around to the southwest, and nudge up the gradient enough for some elevated gusts, mainly for Natrona County and the higher elevations of the Bighorns. Models continue to break down the weak ridge to the west, allowing the next wave to sweep east from the PacNW.
High temperatures will struggle to reach into the low to mid-20s across the Flathead, Mission, Missoula, and Bitterroot valleys Sunday.
408 AM MST Sat Nov 19 2022 Current surface map places cold front across northern Nebraska into central Wyoming. Deep upper trof over the central CONUS shifts east as western ridge flattens. This will shunt the cold air north and east of the forecast area, with much of the week featuring drier/warmer conditions.
Cold overnight lows through the weekend with near-freezing temperatures possible for rural Valley areas. Many Valley communities will wake up this morning with lows in the middle 30s to near 40 degrees, with some rural outlying areas approaching the freezing mark.
On the synoptic scale, water vapor imagery nicely shows the cyclonic circulation over our region associated with deep upper level trough extending from Hudson Bay to the western Great Lakes. The Northern Plains remains in between this upper low and an upper level ridge over the western CONUS coast. The low chance pops associated with the warm front should shift east of our area this evening.
453 AM CST Sat Nov 19 2022 (Today) Current temperatures are in the lower 20s to lower 30s across the TN Valley, falling roughly 10-18 degrees below our climatological normal low temp for this time of year (~40 degrees F). Our normal high temperatures for this time of year are in the lower 60s, so these are also roughly 10-15 degrees below normal! These aforementioned unseasonably cold temperatures are due to arctic air sweeping down from the Great Lakes region into the Southeast-- stemming from a mid level vort max out of a strong upper level low over the Hudson Bay.
Areas further north were clear for a short time earlier tonight, which allowed some areas to drop into the lower teens and have remained there since as cloud cover has returned to the north. As the upper level trough shift south of the CWA, the westerly flow will turn northerly late on Sunday. Average temperatures for mid November for the Panhandles are around 60 degrees, so we will still be below average, but certainly warmer than we have been over the last few days.
Conditions will remain dry and high pressure banked up across the southeast plains will recede eastward as lee troughing takes place along the eastern slopes of the southeast mountains/adjacent plains by this evening. For tonight, expect another cold night, though lee troughing will increase westerly flow for the lower eastern slopes/adjacent I-25 corridor towards morning.
425 AM MST Sat Nov 19 2022 The weak ridge will be building off to the west today, holding our flow from the north, but not really bringing anything along with it, at least this weekend. A system passing through central Canada today will help bring our winds back around to the southwest, and nudge up the gradient enough for some elevated gusts, mainly for Natrona County and the higher elevations of the Bighorns. Models continue to break down the weak ridge to the west, allowing the next wave to sweep east from the PacNW.
the airmass that brought very cold temperatures for this time of year to the forecast area will begin moving away, allowing for a large upper level ridge to the west of the area to slowly move our way. the amplitude of the approaching upper level ridge breaks down a bit but its impact will still be felt as 850mb temperatures rise another 13F to 19F across the area. This supports high temperatures a little warmer than the NBM guidance with lower 50s to around 60 expected.
142 AM PST Sat Nov 19 2022 Much below average temperatures will continue again today and tonight, while the gusty east ridge-top winds diminish. Gusty east ridge wind gusts over the Sierra crest remain near 60 mph as of early this morning, but have decreased from earlier peak gusts briefly surpassing 100 mph at Alpine Meadows summit. Light east to southeast winds are expected as the ridge axis remains west of the Sierra today.
09Z surface analysis shows a cold front from near Fairmont, MN to Storm Lake, IA to Wayne, NE, evident by a sharp wind shift to the northwest. In the wake of this morning's frontal passage, temperatures will struggle through the day, topping out in the lower 20s most areas. After a chilly start, temperatures will increase rapidly on Sunday with an eastward moving thermal ridge and westerly surface winds.
Key points: * Cold again today and tonight then close to seasonal normals * Elevated fire danger possible Sunday Southwest winds have been the rule early this morning between high pressure to the south and a cold front moving south into central Nebraska. Temps have steadied under good low-level warm air advection but the cold front brings another cold day today.
312 AM CST Sat Nov 19 2022 A cold front is diving southeast through the Upper Midwest and northern Plains this morning. Cold high pressure builds across the Mid Mississippi Valley tonight resulting in excellent radiational cooling conditions. Carney The aforementioned pattern shift begins Sunday as the long wave trough which currently dominates the weather east of the Rockies starts to attenuate and shift east.
522 AM CST Sat Nov 19 2022 The exiting trough will take this morning's flurries and low clouds with it today. Downslope winds along the Coteau overnight could keep that area marginally warmer. By 18z Sunday the 24 hour H85 temps will rise +20C setting the stage for highs above freezing from parts of the James Valley west. Breezy northwest winds will diminish this afternoon as the high settles in.
A gradual pattern-change will commence on Saturday as the broad dome of cold air moves eastward and an weak upper-trough moves across the northern Rockies. This high wind event will diminish by Sunday afternoon as stronger mid-level flow shifts east and gradients relax.
538 AM CST Sat Nov 19 2022 A cold front is diving southeast through the Upper Midwest and northern Plains this morning. Cold high pressure builds across the Mid Mississippi Valley tonight resulting in excellent radiational cooling conditions. Carney The aforementioned pattern shift begins Sunday as the long wave trough which currently dominates the weather east of the Rockies starts to attenuate and shift east.
939 AM EST Sat Nov 19 2022 Another chilly morning with morning lows ranging from the lower 40s north to the upper 50s south. Large upper trough from Hudson Bay into the Eastern U. At the surface several weak frontal boundaries to move into the area but high pressure N of the area producing tightening gradient for dry conditions and occasionally gusty NE winds today into tonight. On Sunday the pattern is expected to become more unsettled as a series of upper level disturbances rotate around the base of the upper trough through the region.
127 PM EST Sat Nov 19 2022 Snow shower chances return tonight with a crossing cold front. A few lake-enhanced snow showers will continue Sunday, mainly north of Interstate 80, before high pressure returns clearing skies and warmer temperatures for the first half of the upcoming week. Weak high pressure will keep the weather quiet through the evening before the next cold front approaches tonight. In addition to the potential for snow showers, a tightening pressure gradient will allow for gusty winds to near 30mph in the lower elevations with the potential for higher gusts to near 45mph in the terrain. Upper trough will pivot to the east on Sunday, bringing a WNW wind component that will support some lake enhanced snow showers into our northern counties. Elsewhere, expect high pressure to build lending to clearing skies but seasonably cool temperatures will prevail.
The exiting trough will take this morning's flurries and low clouds with it today. Downslope winds along the Coteau overnight could keep that area marginally warmer. By 18z Sunday the 24 hour H85 temps will rise +20C setting the stage for highs above freezing from parts of the James Valley west. Breezy northwest winds will diminish this afternoon as the high settles in.
Given that minimum temperatures will often drop below freezing during this time, there is the possibility for at least some impactful travel conditions.
(Rest of Today) Another chilly and frosty morning across the TN Valley with most of us falling into the low/mid 20s. Both our overnight lows and our daytime highs today are about 20 degrees cooler than normal for mid November.
Combined with light winds, expect ideal radiational cooling as temperatures drop down into the lower 20s by daybreak Sunday morning.
Looking at the big picture, there is a deep upper level trough over the Eastern U. with a broad trough axis in place north of the Florida Peninsula.
On track to rise just above freezing for most of the lower elevations this afternoon for the first time in a few days. Highs this aftn over nern CO will be warmer as readings reach the mid 30s to lower 40s. Temperatures in the higher valleys will drop below zero and have lowered them from guidance values.
Freezing Fog Advisories are in effect until noon today for the Lower Columbia Basin, Blue Mtn Foothills, and north central OR. The freezing fog advisory will likely expire at 12 PM.
19Z water vapor imagery shows a high amplitude trough stretching from the Hudson Bay south into the Great Lakes and ridging extended along the west coast into British Columbia. Surface obs showed high pressure over the southern plains with a decent offshore wind along the gulf coast leaving a dry airmass over the region.
1232 PM EST Sat Nov 19 2022 Cold, dry and and breezy conditions will be observed today before a cold front moves through tonight bringing a chance for snow showers in the north. Highly amplified flow pattern with a mean long wave trof over the eastern CONUS. Temperatures to remain chilly, with highs ranging from the lower 30s northwest to the upper 30s southeast. Surface cold front to sweep east across the area this evening. Highs to range from the upper 20s to the lower/middle 30s.
Strongest winds will be across the higher terrain of the North and East Bay interior hills, but then weaken rapidly late tonight into early Saturday morning. Several sites in higher elevations of the North Bay and East Bay are still gusting between 25 to 30 knots, with isolated stronger gusts on the San Mateo peninsula as Sweeney Ridge recently was gusting around 35 knots.
Perhaps the biggest story is the above freezing temperatures today followed by another "warm" day tomorrow. Highs on Sunday will be in the low to mid 50s for most locations.
1008 AM MST Sat Nov 19 2022 The weak ridge will be building off to the west today, holding our flow from the north, but not really bringing anything along with it, at least this weekend. A system passing through central Canada today will help bring our winds back around to the southwest, and nudge up the gradient enough for some elevated gusts, mainly for Natrona County and the higher elevations of the Bighorns. Models continue to break down the weak ridge to the west, allowing the next wave to sweep east from the PacNW.
1219 PM CST Sat Nov 19 2022 The longwave mid/upper trough over much of the CONUS is beginning to slide eastward this morning.
GOES-16 water vapor analysis reveals a high pressure centered in the Southeast U. with the ridge extending all the way to the Gulf of Mexico and the Florida Keys. This high pressure system is the responsible for a tighter pressure gradient and in response winds have increased producing hazardous marine conditions.
High pressure slides to the southeast during the day with a return of southerly winds. Mid level heights and thickness values increase during the day and with plenty of sunshine, high temps will likely reach the lower to middle 40s.
This shift will be the result of troughing over the eastern CONUS finally pushing eastward, leading to more northwesterly to westerly flow aloft. This will allow for warmer air to filter into the region, resulting in high temperatures likely breaking the 20 degree mark across the region.
302 PM EST Sat Nov 19 2022 Below normal temperatures, brisk winds and a slight chance of snow showers will accompany the passage of a cold front tonight. Cold and dry weather is forecast for Sunday as high pressure tracks to Kentucky.
Temperatures will warm aloft as an upper ridge builds in over the Pacific NW today into Sunday.
Additionally, added potential for freezing fog again tomorrow for areas around Mono and Crowley lakes as stable conditions continue. /issued 142 AM PST Sat Nov 19 2022/ Much below average temperatures will continue again today and tonight, while the gusty east ridge-top winds diminish. Gusty east ridge wind gusts over the Sierra crest remain near 60 mph as of early this morning, but have decreased from earlier peak gusts briefly surpassing 100 mph at Alpine Meadows summit. Light east to southeast winds are expected as the ridge axis remains west of the Sierra today.
Dry and very cold weather continues through the weekend across ERN Idaho as a ridge of high pressure under the weight of a dynamic low pressure system moving through the Aleutian Islands up in Alaska helps to collapse the ridge with upper level flow turning from northerly arctic air to westerly more seasonable flow from the Pacific. Limited sublimation and a very dry airmass in place will continue to support very limited freezing fog and low stratus development with patchy freezing fog expected near rivers or open areas of water.
A little warmer by afternoon with highs in the 40s, maybe lower 50s across the Big Country north of I-20.
BB/03 (Now through Sunday) A generally zonal flow pattern aloft is in place across the north central Gulf Coast region early this morning well to the south of a broad upper level trough that is starting to dig across the Great Lakes/Upper Midwest/Ohio Valley region. Radar has showed sporadic light echoes near the immediate coast and our adjacent Gulf waters overnight, but suspect these are mostly only sprinkles at best considering the dry airmass (dewpoints in the lower 30s) currently in place near the coast early this morning. Lows tonight range from the lower to mid 30s over interior southeast MS and southwest AL and in the lower to mid 40s along the immediate coast.
253 PM CST Sat Nov 19 2022 A sharp trof/dry cold front with another reinforcing blast of cold air will make passage late this pm/early this evening. Over the course of the day Sunday, the high shifts due east from MO to WV.
(The rest of today ) High pressure will continue building across the southern plains today.
944 AM MST Sat Nov 19 2022 Current surface map places cold front across northern Nebraska into central Wyoming. Deep upper trof over the central CONUS shifts east as western ridge flattens. This will shunt the cold air north and east of the forecast area, with much of the week featuring drier/warmer conditions.
259 PM CST Sat Nov 19 2022 Unseasonably cold weather will persist across central Illinois through Sunday before much warmer conditions arrive for Thanksgiving Week. Skies will initially be partly to mostly cloudy, but will become clear overnight as high pressure builds into the region. Despite the breeze, the very dry airmass will still cool quite efficiently, allowing low temperatures to bottom out in the lower teens. The ridge axis will quickly shift eastward into the Ohio River Valley on Sunday, resulting in southwesterly return flow developing by afternoon.
1123 AM CST Sat Nov 19 2022 (Rest of Today) Another chilly and frosty morning across the TN Valley with most of us falling into the low/mid 20s. Both our overnight lows and our daytime highs today are about 20 degrees cooler than normal for mid November.
1207 PM CST Sat Nov 19 2022 A cold front is diving southeast through the Upper Midwest and northern Plains this morning. Cold high pressure builds across the Mid Mississippi Valley tonight resulting in excellent radiational cooling conditions. Carney The aforementioned pattern shift begins Sunday as the long wave trough which currently dominates the weather east of the Rockies starts to attenuate and shift east.
245 PM EST Sat Nov 19 2022 Highlights: * Near zero wind chill values Sunday morning The Midwest and Ohio Valley are witnessing the brunt of a negative AO pattern, as lobes of vorticity within a larger parent trough continue to push Arctic air over the region. Scattered flurries are likely to develop, especially over northern central Indiana this afternoon/evening within the trough axis. The incoming air mass will be dry, with dew points in the low single digits. More of the same weather will occur tomorrow with high pressure delaying southerly return flow until Sunday night. Expect highs in the low 30s with sustained winds between 10- 15MPH and gusts up to 20MPH.
1107 AM CST Sat Nov 19 2022 (The rest of today ) High pressure will continue building across the southern plains today.
120 PM EST Sat Nov 19 2022 Snow shower chances return tonight with a crossing cold front. A few lake-enhanced snow showers will continue Sunday, mainly north of Interstate 80, before high pressure returns clearing skies and warmer temperatures for the first half of the upcoming week. Weak high pressure will keep the weather quiet through the evening before the next cold front approaches tonight. In addition to the potential for snow showers, a tightening pressure gradient will allow for gusty winds to near 30mph in the lower elevations with the potential for higher gusts to near 45mph in the terrain. Upper trough will pivot to the east on Sunday, bringing a WNW wind component that will support some lake enhanced snow showers into our northern counties. Elsewhere, expect high pressure to build lending to clearing skies but seasonably cool temperatures will prevail.
A sharp trof/dry cold front with another reinforcing blast of cold air will make passage late this pm/early this evening. Over the course of the day Sunday, the high shifts due east from MO to WV.
Dry conditions will prevail as high pressure will remain in control of the regional weather pattern. Gradually rising heights associated with a high pressure ridge building over the region will bring gradually rising temperatures to the area. High temperatures will reach into the 30s and 40s tomorrow with most locations, even across Elko county, rising above freezing.
Over the southwest CWA where there is little to no snow cover, leaned more towards NBM75 for temps which puts things into the lower 40s. As we head into Sunday night, a weak cold front drops into the area after 06Z which bring some cooling at 925mb into northeast SD.
Another chance for snow will arrive around the Thanksgiving holiday and temperatures remain below normal, but trending slightly warmer. Low pressure was located over Hudson Bay this afternoon with a cold front extending to eastern Lake Superior into central Wisconsin and then back into the eastern Dakotas.
Offshore winds over the highest peaks and ridge tops remain breezy but continue to diminish through Saturday evening. The offshore winds assisted with slightly warmer temperatures in the North and East Bay earlier today as well as reducing relative humidity down to 30 to 40 percent in many areas. Winds at higher ridgetops are still gusting around 20 to 25 mph, but will continue to diminish into the night.