Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
As of mid afternoon, high pressure over Arkansas and low pressure over the Great Lakes was continuing northwesterly flow over the lower Ohio Valley. It's been a cold day with readings in the mid/upper 20s under the clouds while closer to the TN border temperatures have risen to around the freezing mark. The aforementioned high pressure moves nearly overhead during the day tomorrow and should provide the area with more sunshine and slightly warmer, but still below normal, high temperatures. Readings are expected to top out in the low 30s across southern Indiana to mid/upper 30s across central Kentucky.
High pressure to continue to build into area with overnight lows near normal in Fort Myers and 5 to 10 degrees colder than normal elsewhere.
Any stratus and patchy fog around Saturday morning should gradually erode as daytime the low levels gradually mix out. Given the continued low level warm pattern we are in, high temperatures on Saturday should be at least 15-20 degrees warmer than this afternoon.
448 PM EST Fri Dec 9 2016 Cold high pressure will build into the area through Saturday.
should see a good warm up for the lower eastern slopes and I-25 corridor this afternoon as lee trof brings westerly winds down into the lower elevations. Have Kept highs on the cooler side of guidance for the lower Arkansas river valley to the east of KLHX today where temperatures may struggle to warm out of the 30s. Westerly winds across the higher elevations will start to increase again tonight as the upper jet sags southward again ahead of the next system entering the Pacific NW.
240 PM EST Fri Dec 9 2016 Arctic high pressure will build across the area through Saturday.
Scattered flurries and isld snow showers will continue through the morning hours courtesy of a vort max in the upper trough and a thick low level cloud layer.
We are seeing widespread freezing temperatures this morning all the way to the Rio Grande. Along with this, freezing fog continues along the front range of the higher terrain from the Guadalupe Mountains south to Alpine.
Temperatures struggling in the 50s this afternoon in the eastern valleys where low level easterly flow and associated cooler air is a little deeper than in areas farther west. After the clouds depart, Saturday afternoon should be mostly sunny with temperatures a few degrees warmer in most areas and perhaps 10 degrees warmer over those eastern areas that are struggling today.
Arctic high pressure will continue to drift eastward today. While the cold trof will maintain its influence over the northern plains, moist westerly flow off the Pacific will spread across the Rockies over the weekend.
Dry nwly flow aloft along with building sfc ridging influences will provide for VFR conditions thru 10/18Z. Per movement of sfc ridging influences, sfc winds will shift from the NW-N around 5 kts to NE-SE around 5kts mainly after 10/12Z.
SHORT TERM (Tonight through Saturday Night): Moderate to breezy north to northwest winds and cloudy skies prevail across Deep South Texas this afternoon as relatively shallow, cool high pressure prevails over the area. Low temperatures tonight will remain generally in the low to mid 40s, with a few upper 30s possible across the ranchlands, under cloudy skies. The development of a coastal trough Saturday into Saturday night and increasing moisture should support isolated to scattered showers near the coast.
Some flurries are expected this morning, before high pressure moves into the region tonight into Saturday.
Winds will ramp up again today as another low pressure system moves by to our north, but winds are still expected to remain below gales.
This will keep overnight low temperatures a bit warmer and currently forecast to fall only into the middle teens.
Arctic high pressure was centered over southern Saskatchewan, with its axis extending southeastward across ND into eastern SD and southern MN. Light winds near the high center and southeast winds of 5 to 10 mph developing in the southwest will still produce wind chill values in the 25 to 40 below zero range.
Weak ridging will be over the region today into Saturday bringing periods of mainly mid and high level clouds along with seasonably warm temperatures.
1042mb arctic high pressure sits across the Dakotas with generally weak northeasterly winds across the CWA. Weak ridging will develop across the nrn Rockies tonight as the front begins to slowly move northeastward. with northwest SD in the single digits while northeast WY and southwest SD reaches the low 30s. The biggest gradient could be along the northern foothills as the Black Hills warm into the low 30s and the surrounding plains reach the upper teens to low 20s. Colder air will push back into the area on the backside of the low as it pushes E/SE of the CWA.
429 PM EST Fri Dec 9 2016 A broad and very cold upper level trough over the Great Lakes and southeastern Canada will remain in place for the next few days. This weather feature and a well-aligned westerly low level flow off the lower Great Lakes will bring a prolonged period of lake effect snowfall and significant snow accumulations to northwest PA today through Saturday. High pressure will briefly build across the commonwealth late Saturday and Saturday night causing the Lake Effect snow bands to lift north of the region with a brief period of clearing elsewhere.
1242 PM EST Fri Dec 9 2016 Cold high pressure will extend over the area through the first half of the weekend. A weak trough of low pressure is expected to develop off the Southeast U.
An expansive area of lower clouds will affect the TAF sites through mid afternoon before thinning out as high pressure continues to dominate. Highly amplified flow in the high latitudes has opened the door for arctic cold to grip a good portion of the nation. Increasing downslope flow over the Rockpile will induce lee troughing and a return to southerly winds while the arctic high center slides east toward the Mid Atlantic this upcoming weekend.
This has lead to a rather gray, cooler, and occasionally drizzly day for South Florida. While the Arctic air associated with the strong high pressure over the Midwest won't reach us in South Florida, as the high builds south we will see breezy conditions continuing through the overnight hours and more seasonable overnight lows continuing.
The exception is downstream of Lake Sakakawea where lake effect clouds and maybe a few flurries are keeping temperatures a little warmer. Surface analysis early this morning places high pressure across the state.
/issued 402 AM CST Fri Dec 9 2016/ Surface ridging will slide east today with surface lee troughing quickly reestablishing itself by the afternoon. Only major contention in the short term will be the low stratus and how long it hangs around the region today. For tonight, the NAM is particularly aggressive in bringing back very low stratus or even freezing fog.
Return flow on the back side of the high was occurring across the Western High Plains at 09Z. As the high pressure moves off to the east southerly winds will develop from west to east across the CWA today. Clouds will offset some of the warming today given the low sun angle with highs climbing into the upper 20s.
1256 PM EST Fri Dec 9 2016 Cold high pressure will build into the area through Saturday.
412 PM EST Fri Dec 9 2016 Building high pressure will keep temperatures below normal tonight into Saturday.
/issued 343 AM CST Fri Dec 9 2016/ A freeze will be in store for areas north of Lake Pontchartrain while areas to the south will flirt with freezing.
Cool high pressure continues to build into the region.
238 PM CST Fri Dec 9 2016 18Z surface data has high pressure from the Dakotas into the lower Mississippi Valley while a storm system was developing in the Rockies. Quiet and dry conditions will be seen late this afternoon and tonight as high pressure moves through the area. Dry conditions will continue Saturday morning as high pressure moves into the Great Lakes and the storm system approaches from the Plains.
Winds will become southeast as the high pressure system retreats to our east.
300 PM CST Fri Dec 9 2016 Ridge of high pressure extending from Saskatchewan southeastward into the lower Mississippi River Valley continues to shift slowly eastward this afternoon. While forecast soundings suggest the low clouds will gradually erode this evening, they maintain a mid/high overcast through tonight into Saturday. Once the ridge axis pushes further east, low/mid-level WAA will commence Saturday afternoon.
210 PM CST Fri Dec 9 2016 Have a weak upper trough over Eastern US today with a ridge over the West.
244 PM EST Fri Dec 9 2016 Dry air has begun to move into the region as high pressure edges closer and has allowed for the lake effect snow to recede back towards the lake.
In the middle and upper levels, (700-200 mb), Latest available IR imagery overlaid with model streamline analysis as of 200 pm continues to depict a rather expansive middle and upper trough of polar origins positioned across much of the CONUS from the Rocky Mountains to the Eastern Seaboard. To the south of that, the main anticyclonic axis of a broad, deep and warm ridge remains positioned from North of Hispaniola to the Western Caribbean Sea. At the surface and in the lower to middle levels, (Surface to 700 mb), latest available IR imagery as of 200 pm, overlaid with marine and land surface observations and analysis, detail the center of a 1040 mb plus surface arctic high situated over the Ozark Mountains.
232 PM CST Fri Dec 9 2016 Cold temperatures continue to hold on around the region with high pressure moving in behind yesterday's cold front. Temperatures this afternoon are struggling to get above freezing, and with continuing clear skies overnight, it looks like most of the mid state will see teens for lows by Saturday morning.
As surface ridging moves east from the Central Plains toward the Mississippi Valley today, winds will shift from light easterly to south/southwesterly at 10 to 15 mph. Warm air advection from the surface through the low cloud layer should work to erode the low clouds that are currently across the entire forecast area. This will help push temperatures at least into the 40s this afternoon, but it will be hard to get much warmer than low to mid 40s with such a cold air mass in place to start the day.
Saturday expected to be much warmer with highs in the mid-50s to mid-60s as downsloping winds prevail.
Freeze Warning Tonight for all of Southeast Georgia and Late morning surface analysis depicts strong high pressure (1041 millibars) building southeastward from the Canadian prairies into the Tennessee and lower Mississippi River Valleys. broad troughing covers most locations east of the Rockies, with a subtropical jet in place across the southern Gulf of Mexico and the Florida peninsula. High pressure well to our northwest will begin to weaken tonight, allowing our local pressure gradient to slowly loosen. Subfreezing temperatures are expected along and west of U. A light northerly breeze will result in wind chills falling to the mid to upper 20s in the freeze warning area, with near freezing wind chills possible elsewhere inland. A developing onshore wind component overnight will keep coastal lows in the upper 30s over southeast Georgia and the low to mid 40s for coastal northeast Florida.
But second trough with more extensive moisture plume is right on heels of first system, with widespread -SN and IFR conditions re-developing around 00-03Z near KEKS/KBZN and expanding northward Fri night.
120 PM EST Fri Dec 9 2016 Arctic high pressure will build across the area through Saturday.
Upper level ridge continues across the Central Plains this afternoon. Weak upper trough was filling across central and northeast Kansas this morning. Forecast soundings suggest mixing down from around 850 mb with highs mainly in the low to mid 90s.
The surface reflection of this system is a cold front that extends from eastern MN into north-central NE. Otherwise the heat is expected to continue this weekend and going forecast has this handled very well and we made few changes to the highs and lows. With the ridge recovering on Saturday over the central Plains and subsidence aloft we should again see temperatures soar into the mid and upper 90s.
This as a weakness in the upper level ridge lingers over West Texas and provides increased mid-level moisture and subtle forcing amid a seasonably hot, moderately unstable and minimally capped boundary layer. The transition to a hot and dry pattern will occur this week as upper level high pressure builds over the desert southwest and the southern high plains.
1022 PM EDT FRI JUN 10 2016 High pressure south of the area will bring unseasonably warm conditions across the region to begin the weekend.
1134 PM CDT FRI JUN 10 2016 CWA continues to lie beneath mid/upper level ridge with continued dry and warm weather to continue. Gosselin Typical summer like forecast for this weekend with afternoon highs in the lower to middle 90s.
This general regional pattern of an upper high pressure ridge parked over the Great Plains will persist another couple of days though the weekend before any breakdown and increase in upward motion/forcing for ascent is possible.
/issued 344 PM CDT FRI JUN 10 2016/ A broad/weak upper level trough will result in a weakness within the upper level ridge that currently dominates much of the CONUS. A bit of a pattern change will occur by midweek as the weak troughing shifts eastward and upper ridging takes stronger hold of the area.
warm temperatures expected overnight with lows reaching the low 70s across most of central IL and the upper 60s from I-70 southward. A persistent pressure gradient between the high over the southeast U. and low pressure over the northern Plains will keep a light SW wind 4-8 mph across the area. The high pressure ridge is well off to the east, and a warm front well to the north at the IL/WI border. Temps only dropping into the low 70s/near 70 in most of Central Illinois.
An upper level closed low is currently spinning over he Washington coast. This low is generating some late day instability showers over the Cascades and eastern mountains. The low will drift northeast on Saturday and be over northeast Washington and on its way into Canada.
1126 PM CDT FRI JUN 10 2016 A ridge that has been dominating the majority of the CONUS has begun its eastward progression at 700 and 850mb towards the East Coast. There is a trough behind this ridge that is centered over the central Canadian provinces. This is obviously well off to the north and will have ridging behind it with another trough hot on its tail; the expectation is for this wave to get its act together through the weekend. A persistent ridging over the area continues the stagnant conditions of 90 degree temperatures which is 5 to 10 degrees above seasonal normal. The influence of the next trough begins to make its influence for the latter part of the weekend into the first part of the week.
926 PM CDT FRI JUN 10 2016 CWA continues to lie beneath mid/upper level ridge with continued dry and warm weather to continue. Gosselin Typical summer like forecast for this weekend with afternoon highs in the lower to middle 90s.
Overnight low temperatures will be a few degrees warmer than last night's values, owing to a positive 24-hour observed dew point trend. /ISSUED 241 PM CDT FRI JUN 10 2016/ Remnant MCV clusters noted across west TX are within a weakness of the overall upper level ridge.
Models show a mid-level ridge building over the area and bringing a little warmer temperatures aloft, which will help in limiting thunderstorm development.
659 PM CDT FRI JUN 10 2016 An upper level ridge will slide across the area tonight through Saturday night. Temperatures will remain on the hot side as the ridge moves to the east.
Ridging from High Pressure over Sask/MB will keep skies mostly clear tonight with cooler air sinking into the northern zones. Low pressure begins to deeper over Wyoming tomorrow, with an inverted trough extending from just west of Rapid City north into NE MT.
The latest model package (GFS20/ECMWF/SREF/Canadian) project quasi- zonal flow aloft transitioning into southwest flow through Saturday, as an upper level trough pushes inward from the Pacific NW. Meanwhile, at the surface, low pressure will deepen over the southeast Montana/northeast Wyoming corner, moving northeastward through Saturday.
Southwest flow will continue across the region through the weekend as an upper trough deepens along the west coast. Moisture working north ahead of this trough will start to spread into Utah tonight and remain in place through the weekend. Utah remains under a southwesterly flow aloft this evening ahead of a trough over the PacNW and a weak closed low off the SoCal coast. The weather disturbance will exit the area tomorrow evening but a shallow cold front is expected to push into northwest Utah behind it. Overall, cooler temperatures are expected tomorrow due to increased cloud cover, precipitation and the boundary.
1045 PM CDT FRI JUN 10 2016 A rather diffuse cold front from southwest MN to north central WI has been the impetus for strong thunderstorm development this afternoon. Threat wise, freezing levels up near 13k ft will make it tough to get hail much larger than 1.
For temps, The model soundings show little effects of any subsidence from an upper ridge over the southeastern Conus. Still have went around to a scooch above seasonal for temps, but again leaning on the cooler side of guidance.
944 PM EDT FRI JUN 10 2016 High pressure will prevail tonight before moving offshore this weekend.
This feature will drift farther east into the Big Country tonight, and the models show a weakness aloft remaining over our area Saturday, as the upper level ridge builds north into the central/northern Plains.
Aloft water vapor loop and satellite data indicated an upper low over the Lower Pan- handle and Western sections of North Texas providing mid and upper level moisture overnight as the low wobbles over that part of Texas. Rain chances will be increasing for our forecast area into the day Saturday as the upper low lifts East and Northeast over North Texas.
A cold front has just finished moving through the CWA this evening, bringing northwest winds gusting to 30 mph and cooler air. Winds will decrease as well as the tight pressure gradient that typically follows a cold front moves east out of the area.
Flat upper ridge over the central CONUS is building over the CWA as wave pushes through MN. Upper low continues to spin over the Pacific Northwest. Most models are now showing the low farther north on Saturday, while the Canadian is the outlier. However, a strong to severe storm or two may sneak into northwestern SD, especially if the low takes a more southerly track.
Also potential for an isolated tornado especially early where more discrete convection will exist, particulary near the triple point over northwest Wisconsin where more favorable low- level shear profiles exist and perhaps near warm front pushing into northwest Wisconsin. Saturday Through Friday Heat/humidity to linger Saturday until CAA kicks in after post- frontal trof moves through during day. Small chance for a storm to develop along surface trof in the afternoon across east-central Wisconsin. Winds quickly shift N-NNE with backdoor cold front potential late in day near Lake Michigan. Even a meandering cut-off low is forecast by both models to affect Wisconsin by the end of the forecast period. Until then, area is just east of upper level ridge axis. Occasional ripples over the ridge will bring chances for convection.
/issued 311 PM CDT FRI JUN 10 2016/ Overall forecast the next few days will be modulated by weaknesses in the ridge and any remnant convective features (such as mesoscale convective vortices and outflow boundaries). Extended the low chances as far east as Enid, where the HRRR suggests isolated storms could develop later this afternoon (due to a weakened cap).
Upper level ridge axis will push east of the forecast area tomorrow with increasing chances for thunderstorms.
711 PM EDT FRI JUN 10 2016 High pressure will prevail tonight before moving offshore this weekend.
Our late week warm-up has begun, and at 2pm the mercury at the Nashville Airport had reached 90 degrees--for the first time since June 1st (when the high at BNA was 92).
The upper level ridge axis is over northeast Colorado this evening. Clearing skies overnight with the ridge axis shifting to the east on Saturday. with increasing ssely winds at the sfc for a Denver Cyclone.
Otherwise, the remainder of the evening should be fairly tranquil as weak low level ridging slowly builds into the area with light west/northwest winds. Behind this activity, a clearing sky was noted as surface ridging builds into the forecast area.
Hot summer weather is expected this weekend as strong high pressure over the southeastern states pushes warm and moist air into central Indiana on southwesterly winds. A cold front will push throughout northeastern United States on Saturday night.
Other than the high heat index values of 100 to near 105 this afternoon and again Saturday afternoon /mainly S/, the main story will be fire danger. The lowest afternoon RH values of 20-30 percent will set up mainly SW of Pierre, and across W Central MN.
The region is currently under high pressure. Expect these conditions to continue through Saturday with highs once again in the lower 90s with afternoon heat indicies in the mid 90s.
645 PM CDT FRI JUN 10 2016 A rather diffuse cold front from southwest MN to north central WI has been the impetus for strong thunderstorm development this afternoon. Threat wise, freezing levels up near 13k ft will make it tough to get hail much larger than 1.
516 PM MDT FRI JUN 10 2016 Early afternoon WV imagery and RAP analysis indicates ridging extending across Colorado with axis centered across our CWA. Saturday: Upper level ridge shifts east while trough deepens in this west.
Dew points have mixed out into the 50s across northern Central Alabama while remaining in the low 60s south. This will result in milder overnight lows with upper 60s to low 70s expected, with a few mid 60s possible in the typically cooler northeastern valleys.
/ISSUED / Remnant MCV clusters noted across west TX are within a weakness of the overall upper level ridge.
For Saturday, weak high pressure will remain in place aloft with a rather weak pressure pattern at the surface. Broad and weak upper level ridge over the Gulf into the Atlantic starts out the period.
621 PM CDT FRI JUN 10 2016 Typical summer like forecast for this weekend with afternoon highs in the lower to middle 90s.
738 PM EDT FRI JUN 10 2016 High pressure will continue to keep the region dry tonight with temperatures remaining chilly for this time of year.
632 PM CDT FRI JUN 10 2016 A ridge that has been dominating the majority of the CONUS has begun its eastward progression at 700 and 850mb towards the East Coast. There is a trough behind this ridge that is centered over the central Canadian provinces. This is obviously well off to the north and will have ridging behind it with another trough hot on its tail; the expectation is for this wave to get its act together through the weekend. A persistent ridging over the area continues the stagnant conditions of 90 degree temperatures which is 5 to 10 degrees above seasonal normal. The influence of the next trough begins to make its influence for the latter part of the weekend into the first part of the week.
An upper low over Washington will produce scattered showers through Saturday.
For temperatures, am expecting a bit warmer each period, but only about a degree each period from the previous 24 hours.