Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
The low levels of the atmosphere still remain relatively dry, which will hinder convective potential again today. Cooler and drier will work into north Alabama this evening with temperatures falling into the 50s across areas along and north of I-20 by Wednesday morning. The cool front will push southward later today as a short wave trof digs southward.
504 AM MDT TUE SEP 27 2016 Early morning WV imagery and RAP upper level analysis shows large scale ridging across the Intermountain West extending northwards across the Canadian Rockies. Two closed upper low are sandwiched on either side of this upper level ridge: one over the Great Lakes, and another over the Baja Peninsula. Our CWA remains predominantly under the influence of the upper level ridge. At the surface, high pressure remains in place over our CWA.
Warmer temperatures expected today as light west to southwest winds will be the rule today. however moisture ahead of the front will remain cut off due to the upper level system centered across the lower great lakes region. A period of dry weather will continue through the weekend as upper ridging remains in place across the plains as the upper system remains cut off across the eastern CONUS.
An upper trough was across the region, and the base of the trough will move into the Atlantic waters by the afternoon, providing even deeper west to northwesterly flow over the area.
There will not be a big drop in temperatures today, but a tad cooler tonight and probably a bit warmer on Wednesday most areas mainly because the cloud cover should be a bit lower on Wednesday. Concerning rain chances, think MOS is on the high side as precipitable waters are high (around 2 inches) but with the front to the south and the upper ridge expected to begin to build into the area, the forcing will be limited over inland areas.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 80 55 81 57 / 10 0 10 30 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 76 53 79 55 / 10 0 20 50 Oak Ridge, TN 77 52 79 54 / 10 0 20 50 Tri Cities Airport, TN 75 51 77 54 / 20 0 20 50.
859 AM EDT TUE SEP 27 2016 Low pressure located near the north shore of Lake Superior will drift south across the central Great Lakes toward Ohio through Wednesday.
A broad area of high pressure over the Great Basin prevented moisture circulating around the upper-level low centered over the central Baja Peninsula from entering southern Colorado and Utah. Models indicated that the low will move slightly northward during the day, but only so far as to spread thin cirrus over the Four Corners region. The closed low over Baja begins to slide northward as a low pressure system off British Columbia's coast drifts to the south. Moisture circulating the low center begins to just brush southeast Utah and may generate an isolated storm over Navajo mountain toward sunrise. The pattern continues to shift on Wednesday with the high pressure ridge axis driven east of the Continental Divide by the British Columbia low.
941 AM EDT Tue Sep 27 2016 An encroaching upper low will return rain chances for the latter half of the week. The resulting south, to southwest wind has already neutralized cold advection in the wake of yesterdays front, and resuming warm advection should support highs near the seasonal averages despite the encroaching, cold upper low.
1227 PM EDT Tue Sep 27 2016 A cold front will move well offshore this afternoon taking any lingering showers with it.
648 AM CDT Tue Sep 27 2016 Main concern in the short term is rain chances with large upper low spinning through the Great Lakes Region for the next few days. Satellite imagery shows the low spinning over eastern Lake Superior, and it will slowly drop south today. This occurs as upper ridging tries to build in from the west. The big question comes in by the weekend as the models try to figure out how to handle the closed system and how it will react to the weakening ridge and deepening western trough approaching from the west coast.
Clouds tricky with vort lobe swinging through and upper level ridging pushing east. The region will remain in a relatively dry airmass as the upper low to the north of the great lakes begins to propagate southward. Water vapor imagery indicates a stronger wave rounding the upper low that will bring forcing/clouds/showers to areas east of the valley today. upper/lower ridging builds into the region leading to ideal radiational cooling conditions.
Water vapor loop showed weak upper level low centered over Polk County with deep moisture streaming northeastward across south Florida and dry air moving southwestward across the Nature Coast. The 500 MB temperature was -9C on the 12Z sounding but this cold pool aloft will move into the Atlantic by afternoon as the upper low shears and lifts out to the northeast.
Low clouds over northern Michigan will gradually edge south through the TAF period as a deep upper low moves south along Lake Michigan. Expansive upper level low to plague the region right through the weekend, with the wild card being the amount of Atlantic moisture wrapping back into the Great Lakes Region during the end of the work week. Any thunderstorm that materializes could contain small hail with low freezing levels in place.
On the synoptic scale the stubborn upper low across the upper Great Lakes through mid-week will slowly move towards the Ohio valley later this week, then retrograde to the northwest to some degree over the weekend.
1116 AM EDT TUE SEP 27 2016 Adjusted POPs/Wx and Temps with respect to cold front now moving across northwest GA. Latest satellite/obs showing cold front/wind shift pushing across northwest Georgia, beginning to get into northwest portions of Atlanta metro (Cobb/Paulding counties). Low clouds can be seen just behind this boundary with temps in the lower 70s.
1044 AM MDT Tue Sep 27 2016 Water vapor shows upper ridge extending through the nrn rockies and nrn plains. Sunny skies and dry conditions will continue through Wednesday with upper ridge in place over the region. Temps will be in the mid 70s to mid 80s today, and a bit cooler on Wednesday as easterly bl flow develops.
1014 AM EDT TUE SEP 27 2016 Aviation section updated High pressure will provide a dry day today, then an upper level low will move into the area and loiter into the weekend. /Today/ High pressure will remain in control of the weather across central Indiana today.
627 AM CDT TUE SEP 27 2016 Mostly sunny today with west winds this morning becoming northwest and gusty as a backdoor cold front moves into north central Nebraska this afternoon and moves across western Nebraska through the night. Continued mostly clear tonight as upper ridge pushes east on the backside of upper low to the east continues its trek to the southeast into southern Great Lakes. Warmer over night with lows in the mid 40s. Models trended a little slowly with the movement of the upper level closed low that meanders across the Great Lakes region and the Ohio river valley now through the weekend. Meanwhile a ridge across the western CONUS will shift east and flatten as the trough to the east holds strong. Also seeing a trough dig towards the Pacific NW by the weekend.
849 AM EDT TUE SEP 27 2016 A trough is digging across the eastern Gulf of Mexico and western Cuba this morning. Some weak cyclonic flow remains in the base of the trough and the result can be seen on the Miami radar with an area of showers and thunderstorms mainly to the north of the Island CHain. The cyclonic circulation around the decaying upper low will be absorbed by the trough late today and overnight. A larger latitudinal trough will dig across the eastern United States on Wednesday and assimilate the weaker trough over South Florida. With the trough nearby and the weak cyclonic flow will keep the 50 percent chance of showers and a slight chance of thunderstorms today. On Wednesday, the Atlantic ridge will build back over the Keys and South Florida.
/issued 409 AM CDT Tue Sep 27 2016/ SHORT TERM (Today through Wednesday): Locally heavy rainfall will still be possible, mainly along the immediate coastal areas, over the next 24 hours as a coastal trough/stalled frontal boundary remains in the area along with copious moisture. upper-level pattern not really conducive to heavy rain production, as upper-level lows apparent on water-vapor satellite imagery over Lake Superior, Baja California, and SE CONUS leave much of Texas in area of general ridging aloft. Overnight Tuesday into Wednesday, an upper-level ridge amplifies upstream of the area ahead of the old low over the SW CONUS.
Otherwise clear/mostly clear skies are in order today with strong subsidence and drying aloft associated with the overlying ridge. An upper ridge from northern California down through Texas is between two upper lows, one over the Great Lakes region and one over Baja. This ridge will bring warm and dry conditions under clear skies. Warm advection at mid levels will bring above average temperatures, with readings in the low to mid 80s over the plains and in the upper 50s to mid 70s for the high country. Even though clear skies are expected overnight, warmer daytime temperatures will produce slightly warmer overnight temperatures compared to this mornings readings. Blocking pattern is expected to gradually break down Wednesday, with the upper level ridge axis shifting slowly east across the forecast area.
High temps today wl range fm the mid 70s to the lower 80s. The fnt wl sweep thru the area by late Wed ngt, followed by a reinforcing shot of cooler and drier air.
High pressure will continue to bring warm dry conditions to the area today. Dry ridge conditions remain in place across UT this morning with the high centered over nrn UT. A weak closed low continues to spin over nwrn Mexico with moisture spreading north from this low across AZ. The ridge over nrn UT is forecast to break down and shift east over the next 24 hours allowing the low to start to open up and move north with the associated moisture spreading into srn UT. Moisture however remains in place across the CWA thru Fri and increasing upper support associated with a nrn branch trof approaching the PacNW on Fri could give convection an assist that aftn and again Sat.
1252 PM EDT TUE SEP 27 2016 A cold front will slowly push into the area later today into Wednesday and cross the area Wednesday night. Cooler and drier more seasonable temperatures expected late in the week and over the weekend with little rain chances. Latest analysis depicts the cold front extending from eastern West Virginia southwestward along the spine of the Appalachians into northern Georgia. The high moisture content and possible training of convection may lead to a limited isolated flood threat especially in the northern Midlands where recent rain has fallen. Models are a fairly good agreement on the movement of the Great Lakes upper low the next few days.
/issued 356 AM CDT TUE SEP 27 2016/ Upper level analysis shows a low centered over the the Great Lakes that extends well south and a ridge across the western half of the country. At the surface, dewpoints reveal that the cold front is just now moving into the the CWA in southwestern Mississippi and continues west into central Louisiana. Models show that the upper low to the north will steadily move south and slightly east to the Ohio River Valley before tracking back north towards Canada from Wednesday through the weekend.
Ridge axis stretches from northern Utah to central Saskatchewan this morning. Cooler temperatures can be expected Wednesday after the frontal passage late tonight. That being said, the airmass will be quickly modifying in a dry airmass and highs will only be 5-10 degrees cooler than Tuesday, keeping highs in the 70s, which is still above seasonal averages. as models support slightly slower timing of Pacific trof shifting east. The trof is also progged to dig a bit further south.
A large area of clouds associated with upper level low pressure is expanding across southern WI late this morning. MVFR vsbys will occur at times with the rain and the low ceilings tonight. Gusty westerly winds will persist through the afternoon as strong low pressure moves south across Lake Superior. The low will then weaken tonight as it moves down Lake MI.
402 AM PDT TUE SEP 27 2016 Strong high pressure will continue hot weather across the region today. A cool down is expected as an upper level trough moves into northern California for the rest of the week and into the weekend. The hot weather pattern will continue across the interior of NorCal for another day as strong high pressure continues.
/issued 428 AM EDT Tue Sep 27 2016/ Synopsis: Deep-layer trough will remain focused to the west of Florida into the weekend. A cold front will enter North Florida Wednesday and gradually stall as far south as Central Florida.
1022 AM EDT Tue Sep 27 2016 A cold front will move well offshore this afternoon taking any lingering showers with it.
701 AM EDT Tue Sep 27 2016 An area of low pressure off the coast of SC/GA this morning will move northeast today, passing off the coast of NC tonight.
703 AM EDT TUE SEP 27 2016 The center of the sprawling upper level low pressure system will settle over Lake Superior today before dropping due southward to the far southern Lake Michigan basin by Wednesday morning. Despite the close proximity of the upper level low, quiet ceiling and precipitation trends are expected over the area terminals today with VFR cigs initially confined to north of the I 69. Will the large upper level low circulation pushing southward down Lake Michigan tonight light winds will be in place overnight. Expansive upper level low to plague the region right through the weekend, with the wild card being the amount of Atlantic moisture wrapping back into the Great Lakes Region during the end of the work week. Any thunderstorm that materializes could contain small hail with low freezing levels in place.
The associated cold front should be over the Canadian border by late afternoon. Surface cold front pushes south of the Canadian border around 00Z with a strong wind shift to the north behind the front.
An upper low continues to spin over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico. Upper level ridging south of Bermuda extends west over the Bahamas and southern Florida. Farther north, another upper level low and deep troughing extends south over the eastern half of the CONUS. The upper low over the northeast gulf will be absorbed into this trough by Wednesday as it deepens and extends south. Temperatures will remain around average with highs in the mid to upper 80s and lows in the low 70s.
Upper level ridge will be over the area today for clear skies, light winds, and above normal temperatures. Temperatures will remain about 10 to 12 degrees above normal today and Wednesday underneath an upper level ridge. The upper level ridge begins to weaken Today and shift eastward Wednesday in response to the next upper level trough for the end of week.
946 AM CDT TUE SEP 27 2016 The first cold front of the Autumn season has pushed into the Gulf this Tuesday morning. Accordingly in the wake of the front, expect a cooler and drier airmass to control our weather for the next several days. /issued 302 AM CDT TUE SEP 27 2016/ Cold front has pushed well south of our region but the low level drier airmass lags the front a good bit as current dewpoints are still near 60 degrees as far north as southwest Arkansas into northern Texas as of 08z.
1203 PM EDT TUE SEP 27 2016 Low pressure located near the north shore of Lake Superior will drift south across the central Great Lakes toward Ohio through Wednesday.
934 AM EDT TUE SEP 27 2016 Main weather feature of interest today is trough aloft at mid/upper levels crossing the peninsula today through tonight. Morning Cape Canaveral sounding showing sw-wsw flow to the east of the trough axis and is continued quite cool aloft with 500 mb temperatures -9. Highest coverage of PoPs this afternoon expected south and east of the trough axis in area of deeper moisture and better atmospheric lift.
A low pressure system currently over Baja Mexico will gradually move northward across Arizona over the next few days.
Cold front quickly moving west to east across the area and had cleared Interstate 29 right around 18z. This area will not see humidity that low, but the drier air will see dew points fall about 15 to 20 degrees below the highest readings today, which will make for a very nice Sunday.
/Issued 913 PM CDT SAT JUN 25 2016/ Convection that developed late this afternoon along the weak cold front across nwrn Kansas has evoloved into swrn and central Kansas this evening.
Winds will stay strongest (but lower than this afternoon/evening) in the northern parts of the area where the surface pressure gradient will remain strongest in closer proximity to the low over Canada. Thus despite the low dewpoints overnight lows should remain mainly in the 50s with a persistent mixing wind in place. For Sunday, wrap around moisture and some mid level forcing in the wake of the low will see another round of diurnally driven showers mainly across the north during daylight hours.
There is high confidence the upper level divergence, DPVA and a cold front aloft will combine with low level convergence and trigger convection associated with the impending upstream frontal passage. Little of the high resolution model QPF through 12z is impressive, but with precipitable water values pushing two inches, RAP warm cloud depths approaching 4.
water vapor showing a nice upper-level trough moving along the North Dakota/Saskatchewan border. with an attended surface cold front stretching south into the Central Plains. temps have warmed into the middle 90s across the lower Missouri Vly.
A trailing cold front extending south from low pressure along the Canadian/North Dakota border will approach the region late tonight and Sunday, eventually laying out as a weak w-e oriented boundary over central/southern MO/KS late in the day Sunday.
Upslope flow along and east of the Laramie Range should bring dew points back into the mid/upper 40s on the high plains before afternoon mixing yields some low-level drying after 18z.
644 PM CDT SAT JUN 25 2016 19z/2pm surface analysis continues to show an ill-defined warm front extending from southeast Minnesota into southwest Illinois. Meanwhile, cold front currently across the Plains will begin to slowly approach from the northwest overnight. Thunderstorms should then redevelop just ahead of an approaching cold front tomorrow afternoon and progress southeast during the afternoon and early evening.
917 PM PDT SAT JUN 25 2016 Temperatures will increase during the frist half of the week as a ridge of high pressure builds over the Four Corners.
The 1 pm EDT regional surface analysis showed a frontal system across north GA and SC, and a weak trough to its south across central GA. For the first time in several days, scattered thunderstorms entered our forecast area, as they developed in a low layer convergence zone just south of the central GA trough.
/ISSUED 334 PM CDT SAT JUN 25 2016/ A TUTT, Tropical Upper Tropospheric Trough, can be seen on satellite imagery east of the Big Bend over the northern part of the Mexican state of Coahuila. An upper level ridge that extended from New Mexico east- southeastward across Mississippi to northern Florida this afternoon is expected to shift northwestward into the Intermountain West during the next several days.
Scattered showers/t-storms continue this evening across ctrl-se GA in an unstable environment ahead of a cold front. South to southwest winds will persist through tonight and then become easterly Sunday as a weakening backdoor cold front sags south into the waters.
1026 PM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016 High pressure for the the weekend.
907 PM MDT SAT JUN 25 2016 Strong upper low is pushing along the MT/ND/Canada border. Surface analysis showing high pressure quickly building across the region. Dry weather will continue Sunday as high pressure crosses the region. Rockies high pressure ridge will remain southwest of the region, with the northern plains on the northern periphery with fast flow aloft. This will support periodic disturbances into the area as general east upslope flow remains in place in the low levels.
524 PM MDT SAT JUN 25 2016 Strong upper low is pushing along the MT/ND/Canada border. Surface analysis showing high pressure quickly building across the region. Dry weather will continue Sunday as high pressure crosses the region. Rockies high pressure ridge will remain southwest of the region, with the northern plains on the northern periphery with fast flow aloft. This will support periodic disturbances into the area as general east upslope flow remains in place in the low levels.
851 PM PDT SAT JUN 25 2016 The upcoming week be much warmer with summer-like conditions.
A low pressure center is currently located in far SW KS with a cold front extending to the NW. Therefore, I will keep the higher chances in the vicinity of the front.
A ridge of high pressure continues to dominate the areas weather with dry conditions.
This low will drift north into the Trans-Pecos region of Texas on Sunday. Lows tonight are expected to be mostly in the lower 70s, with highs on Sunday mostly in the lower 90s.
1016 PM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016 A cold front will shift slowly through the area tonight and Sunday before dissipating.
The upper ridge over the area will gradually retrograde westward through Sunday. The highest rain chances will be across eastern portions of the area where the influence of the ridge will be less. Lows tonight remain very muggy, in the low to mid 70s.
A stalled warm front and a few outflow boundaries from earlier convection have allowed for some additional storms to develop this evening.
Went a little cooler tomorrow due to easterly winds and lingering cloud cover much like today. Scattered thunderstorms will continue Sunday night associated with a weak disturbance rotating around the upper ridge centered over the southern Rockies. An upper ridge centered near the Four Corners area and trough near the Great Lakes will result in northwest flow aloft across the central High Plains.
441 PM PDT SAT JUN 25 2016 The upcoming week be much warmer with summer-like conditions.
Temperatures on Sunday will be a few degrees warmer than what occurred Saturday.
The next several hours across the forecast area should be largely dry while we await the arrival of the showers/storms along the cold front that extends from the western Great Lakes into the central Plains. 19z/2pm surface analysis continues to show an ill-defined warm front extending from southeast Minnesota into southwest Illinois. Meanwhile, cold front currently across the Plains will begin to slowly approach from the northwest overnight. Thunderstorms should then redevelop just ahead of an approaching cold front tomorrow afternoon and progress southeast during the afternoon and early evening.
749 PM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016 High pressure over the eastern Great Lakes and New England will move slowly east to the coast by Sunday morning. This will allow A cold front to move east across the area Sunday night.
High pressure is building over Central and Southwest Montana and the airmass will generally remain dry through Sunday.
913 PM CDT SAT JUN 25 2016 Convection that developed late this afternoon along the weak cold front across nwrn Kansas has evoloved into swrn and central Kansas this evening.
19Z surface obs put cold front from northeastern Nebraska into west central Kansas. Convective environment ahead of the front being tempered by the high cloud and scattered precip but much of the local area is nearly uncapped with 2000-3000 J/kg ML CAPE.
Upper level divergence remains strong over the inland coastal plains this afternoon and this is also near the low level convergence axis.
A few nocturnal streamer showers could develop over the coastal waters overnight, possibly making it into coastal areas by morning, with isltd to widely sctd activity again developing during the day Sunday as ridging aloft holds over the region. This as high pressure in place aloft gives way to a deepening east CONUS trof.
Should remain quiet tonight into early tomorrow morning, then an approaching cold front from the northwest will gradually increase shower and thunderstorm chances through the day Sunday into Sunday night.