Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
only change of significance to forecast is to add eastern Tucker county to freezing rain advisory, as temperatures there remain in the 20s, and do not look to warm fast enough to preclude a period of freezing rain late evening into overnight. Otherwise no changes to ongoing advisories or accumulations as snow across the north should mix with freezing rain overnight as warm air works north. Outside of the advisories rain which will start as a rain and snow mix will move west to east across the region overnight as a cold front moves east.
The associated cold front will kick off light snow showers, mainly in the western and southwest zones later this afternoon.
Much of the snow has already moved into eastern SD ahead of the trough, with a little light snow lingering over the southwestern CWA. At the surface, the trough is crossing western SD, and winds are light. Trough will exit the northern plains today, and high pressure will sink into SD. West-southwest low-level winds ahead of next low will bring in warmer air, allowing temperatures to warm into the 20s and 30s across the southwestern half of the CWA. A Canadian low pressure system will begin dragging another cold front through the region late tonight and into Monday. Less than an inch of accumulation is expected before high pressure moves back in and pushes this band eastward, but there may be some patchy blowing snow with the breezy northwest winds behind the front.
An upper wave associated with a 140kt jet streak will cross the CWA Monday with a cold front pushing through the area.
347 PM CST Sun Dec 11 2016 Warm air advection continues ahead of a slowly progressing cold front, which is currently located across northwest and north central Missouri. As this cold front progresses eastward it will bring some slightly drier air into the lower levels, which will cause some improvements to the lowered visibility caused by the drizzle. Precipitation chances will end from west to east with the passage of the cold front. While no impactful meteorological issues should arise, lingering moisture on area roads, mainly bridges, could refreeze as temperatures plummet tonight. Despite the cold frontal passage, Monday will bring near-normal high temperatures, with max temperatures in the 40s.
A cold front will push through the area Monday morning/early afternoon. The wind advisory will remain as is tonight into Monday morning across the East Tennessee mountains, as it will become windy across the higher elevations as the low level jet strengthens.
Dry conditions will prevail across western Kansas tonight and Monday as another shot of drier air in the lower/mid levels filters southward across the high plains in wake of this morning's frontal passage. Along with the help of clearing skies, look for lows down into the mid to upper teens(F) across central Kansas and in low lying areas elsewhere with the lower to mid 20s(F) closer to the Oklahoma border. This will return a south to southwesterly flow to western Kansas, drawing warmer air northward into the area pushing H85 temperatures up around 5C across central Kansas to near 10C in extreme southwest Kansas. High pressure will shift off to the east with a weak downslope flow across the forecast district on Monday. A second cold front will work its way in late Monday.
239 PM EST Sun Dec 11 2016 Peak of the snowstorm late this afternoon into early this evening as max height falls/500 mb trough axis tracks into the Western Great Lakes. The good news is with temperatures rising close to the freezing mark overnight should allow snow plowed and treated roads to be good to go for Monday commute. Highs looking to be holding in the low to mid 30s.
Mostly sunny skies and warmer temperatures are expected on Monday in the wake of the cool front with highs expected to reach the mid 60s to lower 70s over most areas.
253 PM CST Sun Dec 11 2016 20z/2pm surface analysis shows 1009mb low over central Iowa, with warm frontal boundary extending eastward along the I-80 corridor. one associated directly with the low and warm front from southern Iowa northeastward into the Chicago area and another associated primarily with WAA from the Ozarks into the Ohio River Valley. increasing synoptic lift ahead of the low and its associated upper wave will lead to the development of rain showers late this afternoon and evening. Once the low moves further away. it will pull a cold front through Illinois tonight.
A stacked closed low, currently centered over Nunavut Canada, will slide south, west of Hudson Bay. This movement nudges an Arctic cold front south into Northeast Montana late this afternoon and evening.
202 PM EST Sun Dec 11 2016 High pressure along the Mid-Atlantic coast will move out to sea tonight as a cold front crosses the Plains into the Mississippi River Valley.
Temperatures tonight: Skies have cleared although the high center is to our west so we will retain some mixing winds overnight. The center of high pressure moves over Pierre so lowered readings over the Missouri valley.
Precip is slowly working its way eastward ahead of the cold front, but only weak radar echoes are evident across the MS River Valley currently. Winds will begin to shift towards the southwest, then eventually be out of the northwest after the cold front moves through early tomorrow morning.
Not surprisingly there is a strong blocking high over Alaska. The zonal flow over the area will weaken beginning Monday and flat ridging will gradually build north along the west coast.
a surface arctic high axis extended from the high center north of the Great Lakes. The next arctic cold front extended from the northern border of Manitoba/Saskatchewan. This arctic cold front is forecast to move southeastward into northwestern ND later this evening and sweep across the state tonight.
421 PM EST Sun Dec 11 2016 A low pressure system will eject northeast from the Plains into the Great lakes tonight. This will allow a cold front to move across the Ohio Valley Monday morning, ending precipitation across the area.
As a result, stayed on the low side of guidance with lows below zero over all but the Missouri River corridor where readings will sit just above zero. Surface ridging moves eastward on Monday as an upper level trough deepens over the Northern Plains. This trough will drive colder air southward, with a surface frontal boundary swinging across the area during the afternoon. Highs will be in the teens over much of the area, with the exception being over the lower MO River corridor into our lower IA zones where highs will reach into the 20s. Gusty winds behind the exiting cold front will continue into the evening hours on Monday.
Further west, colder air now surging into the Missouri River valley, as inverted trough slides eastward.
temperatures this afternoon are in the lower 60s across our northern areas to lower 70s across the southern areas. The tail end of a cold front will move across the region late tonight and during the day on Monday.
Near the surface, a cold front extends from south central Kansas southwest into the Texas Panhandle. Highs today will range from the lower 40s north to around 50F south. High pressure will shift off to the east with a weak downslope flow across the forecast district on Monday. A second cold front will work its way in late Monday.
A ridge will gradually build over the region today into Monday but a weak disturbance will flatten the ridge across northern portions Monday afternoon. A moist westerly flow will return midweek with a strong cold trough moving for the end of the work week. The last remnants of a weak disturbance will exit northern Utah this morning as a ridge builds in across the region.
Short wave trough in the flow will allow snow showers to extend as far south as the Snake Basin Monday morning. Expect the dry air and wind aloft to erode much of the fog from the Snake Plain by late morning with just the lowest elevations along the OR/ID border keeping patchy fog into the afternoon. Gusty winds will develop across the higher terrain of southeast Oregon and southwest Idaho this afternoon as the increasing winds aloft mix to the surface.
Right now it looks like temperatures will be above freezing across the entire area before precipitation begins, so no wintry impacts are expected. Colder air will briefly return to the area behind the cold front tonight, with overnight lows dropping into the 20s.
345 PM CST Sun Dec 11 2016 Mid-afternoon sfc analysis shows high pressure centered along the East Coast while low pressure is noted over Oklahoma.
The coldest area temperatures were 7 at Pine Ridge and 12 at Valentine. Temperatures in the southeast panhandle and southwest should recover into the lower to mid 30s with increasing sunshine in the afternoon. The coldest temperatures will be across the northeast zones, where much of Keya Paha, Boyd and northern Holt counties will only reach the lower 20s.
221 PM CST Sun Dec 11 2016 Cold front was arriving on time in pseudo-backdoor fashion late this afternoon and was just about bisecting the CWA from northwest to southeast as of 20Z. Latest guidance offerings came in a few degrees cooler for Monday max temperatures ranging from lower 60s west to mid 50s east.
333 PM CST Sun Dec 11 2016 A longwave trough of low pressure aloft remained entrenched across the lower 48 this morning. At the surface, low pressure was located over southern Iowa with a cold front extending to the southwest into southwest Oklahoma and the Texas panhandle. Along the SDak border, highs will remain in the upper 20s as a cold front arrives early afternoon.
Light to moderate winds have mixed out the cold air in the lower valleys and removed the fog.
301 PM CST Sun Dec 11 2016 A cold front had moved through the entire forecast area on Sunday afternoon, and after a relatively warm morning, temperatures had basically stabilized with the frontal passage or even dropped a bit while accompanied by 20 mph northwest winds. This front has also been effective in drying out the lower levels of the atmosphere, so while it squeezed out some drizzle early on, low level clouds have since been dissipating from west to east. However, while effective at producing snow aloft, the strongest lift is above the sharply drier airmass in the low levels and little if any of this snow has been reaching the surface.
Increasing downslope flow will also help temperatures warm to the highest values we have seen in over a week. Expect slightly cooler conditions over the northern Permian Basin Monday and not much change elsewhere. The forecast gets a bit complicated later in the week when a strong cold front begins to move south into the Southern Plains.
A stable and dry atmosphere remains in place as high pressure moves over the Mid-Atlantic Seaboard. /issued 404 AM CST Sun Dec 11 2016/ We will rapidly moisten today as dp temps warm from the low 30s this morning to the low 50s by late afternoon. Ground temps will not have adequate time to warm and as a result, it will help to cool the lower boundary layer further after dark easily bringing the ambient temp to its dp. Some light to moderate rain will accompany the first of 3 cold fronts by late Monday.
130 PM MST Sun Dec 11 2016 Latest upper air analysis depicts a broad long wave trough over the CONUS. Within the trough is a smaller more subtle short wave trough moving onto the Central Plains. Ahead of this trough a band of snow had moved through the Tri-State Area leaving snowfall amounts of less than a half inch. Lows will be cooler than last night, falling to the upper teens. Monday will be dry and warmer as warm air advection increases. During the afternoon a pre- frontal trough will move into the northern part of the Tri-State Area, causing winds to turn to the northwest behind it.
Thereafter, rapid moistening in the low levels looks to favor fog and low stratus. Thereafter, the gradient will weaken as high pressure drifts into the western Atlantic.
Precip is slowly working its way eastward ahead of the cold front, but only weak radar echoes are evident across the MS River Valley currently. Approaching cold front expected to impact the mid-state this forecast cycle.
Water vapor loop indicated an upper level trough over northeast MT. Upper low will move across the area today and produce light snow. Water vapor loop also indicated a trough digging over northwest Canada. Trough will shift into central Canada on Mon. Shot of cooler air will precede the trough and move into the area Sun night. Another shot of cooler air will move into the area late Tue.
229 PM CST Sun Dec 11 2016 Surface analysis this afternoon shows the area of low pressure was over central Iowa with a trough of low pressure extending to the north. Local and regional radars were showing most of the precipitation was now out well ahead of the surface system as drier air was working in aloft underneath the upper level low over Minnesota. Plan to have most of the area precipitation free except for the far northern sections where a little bit of light snow could linger until the upper level low moves past. The next item of concern will be the arctic cold front as it comes through Monday evening. 12Z models continue to show a pacific short wave trough catching up with the front.
Most of the measurable rain will occur with the cold front which is located across MO/KS/OK/nw TX. The frontal band of showers will likely outpace the cold front, with hi-res reflectivity forecasts suggesting the initial band exiting our southeast counties around 12Z. This would be followed by either additional scattered light showers or even some patchy drizzle within the low clouds.
A weak low pressure system passing to our north will bring an increase in clouds and a slight chance of showers to far northern Arizona today.
/issued 541 AM CST Sun Dec 11 2016/ Strong westerly winds this morning and afternoon will decrease by late afternoon/early evening as a cold front shifts winds to the northeast. Also, despite the cloud cover limiting full sun, very strong downsloping winds will help boost temperatures well above seasonal averages ahead of a cold frontal passage this evening. The cold front will back door into the region beginning this afternoon then push through this evening but winds will be light out of the northeast behind the front. Slightly cyclonically curved yet still nearly zonal flow will dominate this week with a long wave upper trough over the upper midwest and Great Lakes.
Along the Lower Texas Coast today, minor tidal run-up is occurring around high tide this afternoon with tides running around 1 foot above predicted levels and easterly swells continuing across the western Gulf of Mexico.
The FA is under NW flow aloft, modest ridging progressing over the area from the west along with WA and some moisture advection from the southwest, and a strong 150+ kt jet lifting north and east as the ridging proceeds.
Cloudy and breezy conditions continue ahead of a cold front that was currently pushing through northwest OK. Winds will diminish some with the approach of the cold front.
Humidity will increase across the Midsouth today, supportive of widespread showers and a few thunderstorms near a Pacific cold frontal passage late tonight.
Enough warm air is expected to sneak into northeast PA and Sullivan county to turn precipitation over to a mix of snow, sleet and freezing rain before tapering to rain and snow showers Monday morning. It looks like the heaviest snow will range mainly east of I-81 especially over the higher terrain of Sullivan, Delaware and Otsego Counties and northern Oneida Counties where 6-7 inches of snow likely will fall. I see maybe 1-2 inches in the valleys, with 3-4 inches or possibly 5 inches in the higher terrain.
Tonight into Monday looks safe as surface to mid-level ridging passes through.
Stratocu continues to increase acrs SE TX/SW LA as low lvl moisture streams over the region on gusty southerly winds in advance of a cold front acrs W OK/NW TX. Low pressure and an accompanying cold front advancing across the south plains will result in a tightening pressure gradient across the region today. /issued 459 AM CST Sun Dec 11 2016/ High pressure is exiting off the mid Atlantic states this morning as our next system has dropped down the eastern slopes of the Rockies and into Kansas. Winds have become southeast and this is why mrng temps are running about 10 degrees warmer than yesterday.
Clouds will remain and there could even be a little light freezing drizzle, though no reports of it have been received.
332 PM EST Sun Dec 11 2016 Periods of snow will continue through the evening and may mix with drizzle or freezing drizzle at times south of highway 30.
302 PM CST Sun Dec 11 2016 An active pattern is expected through this week with a series of cold fronts expected to pass by Oklahoma and north Texas. The first cold front is progressing southeastward today with temperatures falling into the 40Fs and gusty northerly winds behind the front.
/Tonight through Monday/ Cold front has reached central Iowa this afternoon with a warmer and more moist ribbon of air surging north into southeast Iowa ahead of the system.
330 PM CST Sun Dec 11 2016 Light snow has been slow to taper off today as we still have the influence of the upper trough overhead.
A weak cold front will move across the terminals this evening and overnight, with winds becoming northerly 10 knots or less in its wake. Then, a cold front will move through the area this evening through tonight, turning west to southwest winds of around 10 knots to the north/northeast from north to south. Behind that trough, a cold front will push south into the area this evening and overnight. Following the cold front tonight, lows are expected to fall into the upper 30s to lower 40s.
Dry conditions will prevail across western Kansas tonight and Monday as another shot of drier air in the lower/mid levels filters southward across the high plains in wake of this morning's frontal passage. Along with the help of clearing skies, look for lows down into the mid to upper teens(F) across central Kansas and in low lying areas elsewhere with the lower to mid 20s(F) closer to the Oklahoma border. This will return a south to southwesterly flow to western Kansas, drawing warmer air northward into the area pushing H85 temperatures up around 5C across central Kansas to near 10C in extreme southwest Kansas.
A cold front will move across the region overnight bringing vcsh conditions to all terminal sites with the exception of TYR through the overnight hours.
Ahead of the trough we will see low-level moisture increase over the southeast CWA this morning. We have boosted highs into the lower 40s in a good part of ERN NEb and would not be surprised to see some mid 40s out around OLU given the 950 mb temperatures. A stronger cold front is then scheduled for Monday night, but this front appears it will be dry.
234 PM MST Sun Dec 11 2016 Afternoon water vapor imagery loop depicted a broad low-amplitude upper trough centered across the high plains, with a fast west- northwest flow aloft from the Rocky Mountain Front Range westward.
At the surface, the broad area of high pressure centered over the Mid-Atlantic states this morning will move east into the western Atlantic.
The front will usher in a drier and slightly cooler airmass for Monday.
A cold front associated with this low will move through Monday morning. Southerly winds will usher in relatively warmer air, though highs will still top out in the 40s in most locations. Rain chances will be on the increase beginning this afternoon and continuing into the evening hours as the cold front approaches.
Things are now looking more dry until late in the week and we should have a mid week cold front push through.
353 PM CST Sun Dec 11 2016 Another dreary day, but rather a blustery start, as increasing pressure gradient ahead of the cold front allowed winds to gust 30- 35mph this morning. However, warm air advection also allowed temperatures to slowly climb through the day with afternoon temperatures managing to top out in the low 50s across much of northeast OK and northwest AR, and locations further south seeing mid-50s to lower 60s. Cold front is moving through the CWA this afternoon with winds veering around to more north-northwesterly behind the front. After the rather mild day today, temperatures to start the work week will be a bit cooler behind the front with highs in the 40s and 50s.
A very warm and for the most part dry day is on tap for the region as the ridge over the western US persists. The weak cold front pushing into southern CO this morning is expected to produce northerly sfc winds for all of the plains by late morning, with ocnl gusts to 20 mph. Models still indicate that some isolated showers and thunderstorms over the higher peaks due to daytime heating is not out of the question, so kept those isolated pops in. However, any storms that do develop will likely remain over the higher terrain and not travel off across the adjacent plains and I-25 corridor. Moore Upper level ridge will hold in firmly across the western U.
157 PM CDT FRI JUN 3 2016 Showers and thunderstorms along the pre-frontal trough had dissipiated. Continued strong northwest flow on west side of that low will drive cold front through our CWA this evening. While a few showers or storms could develop early in the day in warm advection zone near pre-frontal trough in northeast Nebraska, main convection will likely hold off until cold front moves in later this morning or early afternoon. Temperatures today will likely surge ahead of cold front given some compressional warming component, with mid 80s common.
Northeast and central Missouri and west central Illinois will also see a chance of showers and thunderstorms late tonight along the attendant cold front associated with the upper trough.
although the Memphis metro area may remain in the low 70s.
Ridging on the surface and aloft extends over the Florida peninsula. An area of low pressure on the surface and aloft extends over Texas as moisture pools with a tropical wave over the western Caribbean. By Saturday the ridging over Florida begins to retreat east as the low pressure over Texas moves toward Florida and moisture begins to move northward from the Caribbean.
Satl and radar imagery continues to show showers/storms rotating around an upper low in Central Texas. These showers/storms are skirting the Low Rolling Plains and the extreme Eastern Permian Basin. High resolution models show that there will continue to be a threat today of showers/storms in the far eastern sections of the Low Rolling Plains and the Permian Basin. Otherwise it should remain dry with warmer temps. The upper low is fcst to slowly drop south into deep South Texas and weaken by the end of the weekend. A combination of upslope flow from the circulation around the low and an elevated heat source will bring a chance/slt chance of convection. As the upper low weakens ridging will build in from Baja California into the Rockies.
135 PM EDT FRI JUN 3 2016 High pressure will help maintain dry conditions today into tonight.
Saturday will be dry with plentiful sunshine and slightly cooler temperatures.
353 PM EDT FRI JUN 3 2016 High pressure over the Great Lakes will move east tonight providing fair weather through the evening. A low pressure system approaching from the plains is expected to tap moisture over the lower Mississippi Valley bringing a chance of showers to southern portions of the area late tonight, and across the entire area Saturday. Lows tonight will be in the lower 60s with highs Saturday in the middle to upper 70s. Fair wx will cont most of tonight as ridging across the region moves east.
(Issued 1049 AM CDT FRI JUN 3 2016) Temperatures across the Tennessee Valley have already warmed into the lower 80s in many locations, with a few spots approaching 85F at this hour.
250 PM EDT FRI JUN 3 2016 A slow moving cold front will keep in the risk for showers and storms mainly south and east of Pittsburgh this evening.
Saturday looks rain-free, and seasonably warm, with high pressure in control.