Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1016 PM EDT Wed May 19 2021 High pressure building into the area will lead to warm and generally rain free weather into the weekend. Mid-level ridge will continue to retrograde/expand westward into the Ohio Valley tonight. Temperatures will mainly bottom out in the lower 60s. Mid and upper level ridging initially centered across the Appalachians will retrograde west and become centered over the lower OH Valley by late Thursday.
The warm and quiet weather most of us have loved is going to be just a memory as we head into a cooler and wetter pattern.
These winds are being supported by a tightened pressure gradient associated with a strong high pressure centered over the Mid- Atlantic Coast. Temperatures across the island chain were capped in the lower to mid 80s today thanks to the abundant cloud coverage throughout the day. Showers will cross the Lower and Middle Keys through early tomorrow morning, while showers in the Upper Keys have mostly diminished for the time being. From synopsis, A sprawling high pressure system currently centered near the Carolina coastline will dominate prevailing winds across most of the adjacent Atlantic, Gulf of Mexico, and Straits of Florida through the weekend.
536 PM MDT Wed May 19 2021 Water vapor shows upper low digging along the west coast with low ejecting out of the southern Rockies. At the surface, cold front that moved through early this morning has become nearly stationary from near KIEN to KPHP. Thermal ridge builds overhead on Thursday for likely the warmest day of the week, with widespread highs well into the 80s. Cold front will advance into northeast WY during the afternoon. However, closer to the cold front from northeast WY into the Black Hills, storms should fire by mid afternoon with some severe storms possible.
825 PM EDT Wed May 19 2021 High pressure off to the north will continue to bring in an easterly onshore flow for the forecast area tonight, with light isolated to scattered showers gradually dispersing overnight. Overnight low temperatures will drop down into the lower 60s for inland areas and in the mid to upper 60s for areas closer to the coastline. High pressure to the north will persist with dry weather expected for Thursday along with breezy onshore winds.
With extremely dry air at the surface, it will take a bit of time to moisten up the lower levels before a steadier rain can develop. As cyclogenesis begins to occur along the lee of the Northern Rockies the cold front that moved through the region yesterday will be drawn back north as a warm front. North of the warm front we will see temperatures in the 40s and elevated thunderstorms are expected to develop during the same time frame and these will generally move from southwest to northeast.
805 PM EDT Wed May 19 2021 High pressure builds through the end of the week, yielding increasingly summer-like conditions. High pressure begins to shift west this weekend with precipitation chances returning.
1019 PM EDT Wed May 19 2021 High pressure builds through the end of the week, yielding increasingly summer-like conditions. High pressure begins to shift west this weekend with precipitation chances returning.
705 PM EDT Wed May 19 2021 An anomalous upper level ridge will remain centered over the Ohio Valley and Grt Lks through this weekend.
515 PM EDT Wed May 19 2021 An anomalous upper level ridge will remain centered over the Ohio Valley and Grt Lks through this weekend.
An upper level low moving over area will support scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms this afternoon and evening.
715 PM EDT Wed May 19 2021 An anomalous upper level ridge will remain centered over the Ohio Valley and Grt Lks through this weekend.
The upper low situated over the TX panhandle region continues to fill and transition into an open wave as it gradually lifts northeast into the central Plains. The main Westerlies remain mainly across the northern tier of the CONUS with an amplified ridge into eastern Canada while a Pacific trough is digging into western Canada and the Pacific Northwest with southwest flow over the Intermountain West into the Dakotas. Dry air through a depth of the lower atmosphere over the region has been another factor today that has limited more coverage of precipitation. As high pressure is slow to expand from the east, still can't rule out more rain chances into the day tomorrow.
1032 PM EDT Wed May 19 2021 High pressure from the Northeast to the Lower Great Lakes will bring summer-like temperatures through the end of the week.
While this risk continues for all burn scars, think the highest risk will be for the Junkins and Spring burn scars into this evening.
519 PM MDT Wed May 19 2021 Scattered to numerous slow-moving thunderstorms persist across the higher terrain of southeast Wyoming late this afternoon. Chances for strong/severe storms should increase Thursday with a deepening upper-level trough over the western CONUS.
320 AM EDT Thu May 20 2021 The few showers that developed over western Lower Michigan yesterday afternoon disintegrated as they pushed east into the CWA with the residual dry airmass/ridging left over. The Lake Erie (south-southeast winds) influence continued to hold DTW cooler than DET for the sixth convective day. Large upper level ridge (589 DAM at 500 MB/see KRNK raob) centered over southern West Virginia will amplify and retrograde west today/this evening with the top of the ridge axis even reaching southern James Bay before folding over tonight into Friday. Subsident regime underneath the upper level ridge over southeast Michigan should place a cap on activity as 500 MB heights rise above 590 DAM setting the daily May 20-21 climo records.
Short wave ridging will move overhead today leading to modest height rises. A deep upper level trough will continue digging into the western CONUS.
Winds will increase after 14Z as high pressure remains just north of the region with easterly winds 13-15 knots at all sites, then highest after 17Z around 18-20 knots with gusts to 23-27 knots at the coast terminals with winds 13-15 knots and gusting to 20-23 at the inland terminals. High pressure to the north will persist with dry weather expected for Thursday along with breezy onshore winds.
1039 PM MDT Wed May 19 2021 Scattered to numerous slow-moving thunderstorms persist across the higher terrain of southeast Wyoming late this afternoon. Chances for strong/severe storms should increase Thursday with a deepening upper-level trough over the western CONUS.
A low pressure system will bring strong southwest winds to the area through at least Friday.
Today: A strong trough moving into the Pacific Northwest and ridge in the East will enhance southerly flow over the Plains today. The first (a remnant of a stronger trough that was once over the Southwest) will swing through the region this afternoon. CAMs generally favor Iowa for the higher precipitation chances, but do indicate some potential for isolated convection over eastern Nebraska.
We think light rain will be common throughout the day as deep Gulf moisture transports north into the region as long wave troughing washes out. By Friday, an upper level ridge of high pressure will be well established across the region, bringing an end to rain chances for a few days.
1142 PM EDT Wed May 19 2021 An anomalous upper level ridge will remain centered over the Ohio Valley and Grt Lks through this weekend.
Upper high to begin taking shape along the spine of the Appalachians today.
405 AM EDT Thu May 20 2021 High pressure will result in dry conditions and above normal temperatures into the weekend. Upper high will be centered over the region. Temperatures are forecast to be a bit warmer than yesterday. High pressure at the surface and aloft will keep dry and warm conditions across the region. Both lows and highs will be just slightly warmer than persistence.
147 AM EDT Thu May 20 2021 High pressure building into the area will lead to warm and generally rain free weather into the weekend. Mid-level ridge will continue to retrograde/expand westward into the Ohio Valley tonight. Temperatures will mainly bottom out in the lower 60s. Mid and upper level ridging initially centered across the Appalachians will retrograde west and become centered over the lower OH Valley by late Thursday. The center of the ridge will slowly shift west to near the confluence of the OH and MS Rivers by Friday night.
(Today and tonight) Upper level trough axis shifts east of the area this afternoon and takes the precipitation chances with it for today. Highs in the low to mid 80s and lows in the mid 60s.
A slow-moving upper low over the Pacific Northwest will continue to provide southeast Oregon and southwest Idaho with showers through the weekend. Temperatures will be even cooler on Thursday, with highs mainly in the 40s and 50s. A deep trough will settle into the Intermountain West during the period keeping cool and unsettled conditions. This afternoon the leading edge of precipitation will advance from southeast Oregon into the lower Snake Plain and eastern Boise mountains. The showers will break up this evening, concentrating around the low center over southeast Oregon and the w-central Idaho mountains overnight. Shower activity becomes more widespread on Thursday as the upper low axis advances to the OR/ID border and daytime instability enhances development.
Through the weekend, a trough digs into the western United States while a ridge slowly weakens out east.
318 AM EDT Thu May 20 2021 Strong dome of high pressure over the Appalachians will continue to gradually build westward from the Appalachians overnight to the Ohio Valley by Friday. The influence of the ridge will provide subsidence and at least mostly dry and warm weather. Better chances of showers will be to the west, over the Ozarks, closer to low level jet and Texas upper trough. 850 millibar temperatures 13 to 15 degrees Celsius and plenty of sunshine should allow for afternoon high temperatures to be around 10 degrees above normal, in the lower and middle 80s. Overnight lows will be mild in the lower and middle 60s.
Upper level ridging will continue to expand across the area today and then sit on top of the area through Friday. High pressure continues to build over the area on Friday with even less clouds.
The southern extent of the weakening upper level trough has moved east of our area. An upper level low forms at the base of the trough over the lower Rio Grande Valley late tonight into Friday. Forcing by the low and heating will generate isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms over areas along and east of US Highway 83 on Friday.
Today's highs will be about 5 degrees above normal with most locations reaching into the lower to mid 80s. Today Currently, ridging is in place across the eastern CONus with 500mb heights reaching to just below 5,900 meters. At the surface, ~1,030mb high pressure is centered over Virginia and the Carolinas. During the day today, ridging will continue to build with 500mb heights reaching above 5,900 meters by the late afternoon, which is over 2 standard deviations above normal for this area during this time of year. Nonetheless, highs have been outperforming most model guidance, so highs in the lower to mid 80s remain likely across most of the area.
Most of of the forecast looks to be in good shape, only freezing rain tomorrow night looks questionable at this point as it should be rain and/or snow. With extremely dry air at the surface, it will take a bit of time to moisten up the lower levels before a steadier rain can develop. As cyclogenesis begins to occur along the lee of the Northern Rockies the cold front that moved through the region yesterday will be drawn back north as a warm front. North of the warm front we will see temperatures in the 40s and elevated thunderstorms are expected to develop during the same time frame and these will generally move from southwest to northeast.
Steering flow becoming more meridional over past 24 hours as upper ridge axis to the east builds and an upper trough over the OK/TX panhandle pushes northeast.
343 AM EDT Thu May 20 2021 High pressure at the surface and aloft will remain in control of the weather much of today and Friday. As the upper high weakens over the weekend.
After that, skies will clear and temps will drop into the lower to mid 60s by the pre- dawn hours in most areas, closer to 70 at the beaches.
1112 PM EDT Wed May 19 2021 An anomalous upper level ridge will remain centered over the Ohio Valley and Grt Lks through this weekend.
228 AM CDT Thu May 20 2021 The low that was sitting over the TX Panhandle has moved off into the Plains this morning which will allow us to finally clear out this afternoon. Temperatures will be warmer with mid-80s across the Permian Basin, 90s along the Trans Pecos, and 100s along the Rio Grande. At the same time, an upper level high will be building over the Mississippi Valley, and we'll see southwesterly flow aloft across TX and NM.
Water vapor imagery reveals Gulf moisture advecting in across the Southern Plains and wrapping around the low over the Panhandles. If anything, the low level moisture tonight may lead to our more impactful weather being the low level clouds and fog potential. Guerrero On Friday an upper level high will be located over Kentucky and an upper level low will be located over Nevada.
428 AM EDT Thu May 20 2021 High pressure spanning across the East Coast to the central Great Lakes will support the summer-like temperatures through the end of the week. Upper level ridging and high pressure will continue to dominate overhead of the region through the period, resulting in mainly fair and warm weather with the addition of a slight humidity increase. Strong upper ridge continues across the region Friday. This will result in continued limited precipitation chances as the better moisture axis holds to the north and west of the area along the periphery of the ridge axis.
234 AM EDT Thu May 20 2021 An upper level ridge will bring downward vertical motion that will suppress any rain chances and help to warm the atmosphere each day.
153 AM EDT Thu May 20 2021 High pressure spanning across the East Coast to the central Great Lakes will support the summer-like temperatures through the end of the week. Upper level ridging and high pressure will continue to dominate overhead of the region through the period, resulting in mainly fair and warm weather with the addition of a slight humidity increase. Mid-level ridge to our south will more than likely maintain dry weather for most all locations on Friday, although an isolated stray storm will still be possible well inland away from the lakes.
Today/tonight, upper low sinks into central CA. Overnight, front becomes cold front as it moves into western SD. Friday, cold front will stall east of the Black Hills. Upper low spins into NV. 1-2KJ/kg MLCAPE forecast along cold front by afternoon along with 40-50kt 0-6km bulk shear. MLCIN will be an issue, but suspect forcing along cold front will be sufficient for surface based convection, some of which could be strong/severe.
Strong high pressure is just to the north of the region supported by mid/upper level ridging centered over the central appalachians and stretching north and east into New England. Drier air is moving around the eastern periphery of the high into the area and this will cut down on further rain showers developing today with perhaps a quick sprinkle possible along the coast at the most. Tonight, winds at the coast around 10-15 mph will keep overnight lows warmer at the coast in the upper 60s to around 70 degrees with low 60s inland under mostly clear skies.
Rain chances by Friday wl be decreasing overall from the east as upper ridging begins to bld into AR fm the east. Elsewhere, the effects of the upper ridge cont to incrs acrs eastern AR, with drier and much warmer conds expected.
At upper levels today, a ridge over the Southeast to Great Lakes will continue to build, resulting in mid- level height rises and large scale subsidence over the Midwest. On Friday, the upper-level ridge is forecast to begin retrograding westward toward the Mississippi River Valley, with mid-level height rises persisting. However, precip coverage and chances will still altogether remain low and even lower than today with the approaching ridge. Friday's high temps will be slightly warmer than today's with greater solar insolation from less cloud cover.
Made some minor tweaks to hourly temps based on latest observations being just a couple of degrees warmer. BW Chattanooga Airport, TN 87 60 88 62 90 / 0 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 86 58 87 62 87 / 0 0 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 86 57 87 60 87 / 0 0 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 84 55 85 57 85 / 0 0 0 0 0.
A powerful ridge will remain in place over the eastern CONUS over the next 36 hours. This high pressure system will push very warm air into NY and PA, with temperatures approaching the upper 80s in the urban centers today and Friday. A strong upper level ridge centered over the Ohio Valley will remain in place Friday, and will slowly retrograde towards the Mississippi River through the weekend. This will promote continued warm temperatures, but also open us up to weak upper level impulses riding the ridge and dropping in from the northwest.
upper level low pressure system were lifting northeast across the central and southern Plains early this morning. Another upper level low pressure system that is currently digging south over Washington/Oregon will become stationary over the Great Basin and then sit and spin through the weekend. An increasing surface pressure gradient across the central High Plains will result in a return to gusty south winds and warmer temperatures today through Friday. The upper low remains in place over the western states through the weekend.
305 AM EDT Thu May 20 2021 Expansive area of high pressure over VA/NC will continue to build westward today and tonight. As strong ridging continues to build in over the Ohio Valley today with continued southerly flow and more sunshine than yesterday, expect afternoon temperatures to be a few degrees warmer reaching the low/mid 80s across our CWA this afternoon.
A 500 mb high over the southern Appalachians will strengthen and expand, encompassing the lower Ohio Valley by Friday morning. This high will bring a warming and drying trend. Deep southerly flow on the back side of this high will be quite strong tonight, especially over the Ozarks where 850 mb winds will be over 40 knots. As the high expands west, these shower chances will gradually be shoved further west. Late spring sunshine will raise highs into the lower 80s on Thursday, with some mid 80s where sunshine is the most persistent.
With high pressure and clear skies overhead, temperatures easily made it into the 80s this afternoon and will hang around there through the evening hours. Guidance seemed too low on the high temps, so adjusted up a few degrees resulting in 80s across the area. A strong upper level ridge centered over the Ohio Valley will remain in place Friday, and will slowly retrograde towards the Mississippi River through the weekend. This will promote continued warm temperatures, but also open us up to weak upper level impulses riding the ridge and dropping in from the northwest.
447 AM EDT Thu May 20 2021 Scattered showers and a few embedded thunderstorms have affected the Florida Straits, especially south and southwest of the Lower Keys, and the Gulf waters. Some of the rain activity has moved across the Florida Keys, especially over the Lower and Middle Keys. Since midnight, the very light showers have been mostly confined over the Lower Keys. Meanwhile, temperatures in the island communities are in the mid to upper 70s with dew points in the low 70s. A strong high pressure system over the eastern United States is blocking the path of a storm system over the southern plains. The high pressure system will be sliding southward over the next few days and losing strength as it becomes an elongated ridge east of Florida late this weekend.
Expansive area of high pressure over VA/NC will continue to build westward today and tonight. As strong ridging continues to build in over the Ohio Valley today with continued southerly flow and more sunshine than yesterday, expect afternoon temperatures to be a few degrees warmer reaching the low/mid 80s across our CWA this afternoon.
728 AM EDT Thu May 20 2021 An upper level ridge will bring downward vertical motion that will suppress any rain chances and help to warm the atmosphere each day.
514 AM CDT Thu May 20 2021 The pattern of weather continues this morning with the upper level ridge dominating the eastern US seaboard with the high anchored over the central Appalachians and an upper level low over the eastern slopes of the rockies. The ridge of high pressure aloft by late tomorrow continues to push this ribbon over southwest Louisiana and southeast Texas.
As the upper level low pressure cyclone continues to lift northward and exit the region, passing upper level waves will help support the development of small isolated showers and possible storms through western Oklahoma.
There will be plenty of moisture streaming into the forecast area with a southeast flow pulling gulf stream moisture into the High Plains.
/issued 228 AM CDT Thu May 20 2021/ The low that was sitting over the TX Panhandle has moved off into the Plains this morning which will allow us to finally clear out this afternoon. Temperatures will be warmer with mid-80s across the Permian Basin, 90s along the Trans Pecos, and 100s along the Rio Grande. At the same time, an upper level high will be building over the Mississippi Valley, and we'll see southwesterly flow aloft across TX and NM.
The mid-level wave and jet exit off to the northeast by late this evening, followed by the beginning of the building upper ridge, which should limit any further precipitation through the latter half of tonight. Another mild and humid night in store, with lows again holding in the lower 60s.
The longwave pattern shows an anomalously cold upper low spinning over OR drifting southward toward the Bay Area. The airmass associated with the low is several standard deviations below zero both at the surface and aloft. Factor in the winds and wind chill readings on some of the higher peaks are in the low 20s.
Based on warm early morning temperatures in the mid 60s and little (if any) cloud cover anticipated this afternoon, highs should range from the lower 80s in elevated terrain to the m-u 80s in valley locations. The 500-mb anticyclone noted above will continue to strengthen as it shifts westward into the OH Valley on Friday, and should reach peak intensity as it retrogrades southwestward into Middle TN Friday night.
By this evening, the closed system of low pressure responsible for our unsettled weather pattern will be set up to the southwest of the Northern Rockies.
with a weakening trough to the west. and a fairly pronounced upper ridge to the east of AR. The extent of the upper troughing to the west has continued to decrease. with just a weak upper trough to the SW of AR. the upper ridge to the west will expand west. the upper ridge will become more influential in the AR Wx pattern.
618 AM EDT Thu May 20 2021 High pressure at the surface and aloft will remain in control of the weather much of today and Friday. As the upper high weakens over the weekend.
948 AM EDT Thu May 20 2021 High pressure at the surface and aloft will remain in control of the weather much of today and Friday. As the upper high weakens over the weekend.
928 AM CDT Thu May 20 2021 High pressure will continue building over the eastern CONUS today, and large scale subsidence will keep dry conditions in place for the Tennessee Valley. A beautiful May day ahead! The 500-mb anticyclone noted above will continue to strengthen as it shifts westward into the OH Valley on Friday, and should reach peak intensity as it retrogrades southwestward into Middle TN Friday night.
With drier conditions over the western sectors of the CWA, expect the higher rain chances to occur over portions east of I-45.