Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
A dry cold front will enter the Brazos Wednesday morning and usher in clear skies and moderat, gusty northerly winds as it passes through SE Texas. it'll be one of the warmer feeling days of the year thus far regardless. The next cold front (dry) should make its way into northwest parts of the area toward mid-morning Wednesday and off the Galveston coast in the early afternoon hours. Breezy, cooler and drier conditions anticipated in its wake.
More active weather is expected to close out the work week as a large trough slowly drifts east across the eastern half of the country.
256 PM MDT Tue Apr 5 2022 Water vapor shows large upper trof covering the northwest and north-central CONUS, with one upper low over MN and the other extending from southern ALTA into northeast MT. Majority of precip that fell this morning associated with upper low over MN has shifted east, but steep lapse rates and cyclonic flow aloft has resulted in developing scattered showers across the area. Upper low currently to our northwest will elongate tonight as it phases with the MN upper low, then sweep through our forecast area overnight and Wednesday with a core of 70+ knot low/mid level winds.
Expect 2 to 4 inches of snow over Carter and Fallon counties, by Wednesday afternoon, with locally heavier accumulations in the higher hills around Ekalaka. An inch (locally two inches) is possible for areas as far west as southern Big Horn county, heaviest in the higher hills of Rosebud county.
1231 PM CDT Tue Apr 5 2022 (The rest of today ) Quiet weather expected today ahead of the cold front arriving tonight.
237 PM MDT Tue Apr 5 2022 Current high wind event across the northern Rockies front range and northern high plains continues to be sustained today by the strong low pressure system (993 mb low) moving from southern Saskatchewan into northeast Montana. When the High Wind Warning is cancelled, it will need to be replaced by a Lake Wind Advisory for the lake area for the following 24 hours.
High pressure has pushed east with winds turning more southwesterly to westerly ahead of an approaching cold front that will make its way through the CWA by early to mid afternoon. Behind the front, expect northwest wind gusts up to 30-40 mph as the gradient is tight behind it 6-7mb across the high plains. 40-50 mph wind gusts expected through early afternoon with the gradient even stronger nearing 10mb through the high plains.
Full FROPA associated with the longwave trough will begin to take place tomorrow morning. The cold front should exit the region by tomorrow evening, taking all the remaining cloud cover and precipitation chances with it. Since the cold front will likely be splitting the region in the afternoon, look for highs to range in the low-70s north, to upper-70s south. However, by tomorrow night, lows will drop into the low to upper-40s under clear skies and NW flow.
130 PM EDT Tue Apr 5 2022 Periodic precipitation chances are expected through the week with a series of crossing low pressure systems. Rain associated with the deformation zone of low pressure passing to the south can be expected this afternoon and into the evening. Much of Wednesday will be dry during the day with southerly flow in place ahead of another low pressure system driving highs to 10+ degrees above normal for the first week of April. While profiles will show skinny areas of CAPE strong support aloft will assure some development of thunder Wednesday afternoon and even Wednesday night with added forcing from the cold front. Scattered showers will then be possible the remainder of the week as a cold upper low settles in across the eastern CONUS.
Temperatures rising into the low to mid 80s will bring MLCapes rising into the 2000-2500J/kg range.
Winds will diminish briefly this evening before a strong cold front arrives around or just after midnight at Abilene and around 3 AM in San Angelo. Cooler, but very dry conditions are expected Wednesday across the area.
A warm front has gradually pushed north of the area today and has brought southerly winds up to 25 mph. As the cold front slides into the area, expect scattered thunderstorms activity to develop along the front. Outside of the severe weather threat, scattered showers are still possible for the remainder of the area lagging behind the cold front. Wednesday: Quiet weather will return for the remainder of the week, but the low will be very slow to relinquish impacts on the area. Cooler air will continue pushing south on Wednesday with temperatures expected to be mainly in the upper 50s. We will also see winds out of the northwest increase during the day as the gradient tightens at the base of the trough.
Dewpoints will continue to nudge upwards ahead of a cold front that currently extend from SE NB through the OK panhandle. Tomorrow will be the first of several cool days across the FA as a very large low pressure system slowly moves through the Great Lakes region.
Otherwise, the wind advisory looks to be on track as Cove Mountain has already been gusting into the low 40s this morning. CD Chattanooga Airport, TN 54 80 47 65 42 / 10 60 70 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 53 80 48 64 42 / 80 60 80 10 10 Oak Ridge, TN 52 78 45 64 40 / 10 60 80 10 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 51 79 48 63 39 / 90 40 80 10 10 TN.
The system that brought clouds, rain, snow and wind to the area will depart to the east with high pressure quickly building over the area later tonight and continuing for the next few days.
247 PM CDT Tue Apr 5 2022 There is a narrow/very conditional window for convection along the cold front early this evening in far southeast Kansas, though despite modest instability, strong shear would support a locally strong storm.
Icy bridges are of particular concern so the Winter Weather Advisory for I-90 and Highway 200 west of Missoula has been extended.
Overnight moisture should push back into the area and will be back into the low clouds and fog near the coast expanding inland. The cold front will be racing southeastward from OK and should come through the College Station area 7-9 am and Houston 11 am-1 pm then quickly off the coast. Skies clear out with the FROPA and a much cooler night will then be at hand.
A cold front will push through tonight will bring continued gusty north winds and dangerous conditions for fire in the Colorado River Valley.
1241 PM CDT Tue Apr 5 2022 - Warmer today with isolated to scattered showers and storms this evening, primarily toward central and northern/NE Missouri.
115 PM EDT Tue Apr 5 2022 High pressure will remain over the region through much of today which will bring mostly sunny skies with little to no chance of precipitation.
137 PM EDT Tue Apr 5 2022 Aviation Latest visible satellite loop shows the low clouds across the southern half of the forecast area beginning to erode and clearing moving in from the east with light easterly low level flow. The warm front associated with the low will lift north through the cwa tonight. The cold frontal portion of the low extending south of the occlusion will move across the cwa after 08z. Once the cold front moves through, colder air aloft will move overhead. Precipitation will become more scattered and showery in nature for the next couple of days as the upper low slowly moves east.
315 PM CDT Tue Apr 5 2022 Scattered showers will linger near the I-74 corridor east of Champaign late this afternoon, while a band of heavier showers and a few thunderstorms approaches from the west for tonight, ahead of a cold front.
High pressure will bring quieter, drier weather with cool, frosty mornings for the latter half of the work week.
The low level ridging will lumber to the east tonight through Wednesday night, with breezes shifting to the southeast to south.
359 PM EDT Tue Apr 5 2022 Periodic precipitation chances are expected through the week with a series of crossing low pressure systems. Rain associated with crossing low pressure is still expected to develop northward this evening. Much of Wednesday will be dry during the day with southerly flow in place ahead of another low pressure system driving highs to 10+ degrees above average for the first week of April. While profiles will show skinny areas of CAPE strong support aloft will assure some development of thunder Wednesday afternoon and even Wednesday night with added forcing from the cold front. Scattered showers will then be possible the remainder of the week as a cold upper low settles in across the eastern CONUS.
418 PM EDT Tue Apr 5 2022 A low pressure system will move southeast of the region this evening.
210 PM EDT Tue Apr 5 2022 A low pressure system crosses the southern counties this evening bringing widespread rain. Low pressure system and strong cold front mid week. Upper trough with showery weather for weekend. The responsible weather feature for this rain activity is an upper level trough along the Mississippi Valley which moves northeast through tonight. A cold front picks up speed Wednesday afternoon, moving to southern Ohio and and eastern Kentucky. Increasing southerly flow on Wednesday out ahead of approaching trough/cold front will allow temps to warm nicely, with most locations topping out in the mid 70s. Cold front enters western zones Wednesday evening, crossing the area through late Wednesday night.
After a brief dry period this evening, a cold front will move southeastward across the cwa tonight into tomorrow morning.
Temperatures will be about 15-20 degrees cooler tomorrow with highs in the lower 70s. /Issued 319 AM CDT Tue Apr 5 2022/ /Wednesday Onward/ Following the Wednesday morning cold front, temperatures will be significantly cooler through the midweek time period. Highs Wednesday afternoon will only be in the lower 70s, and most of the day will be spent in the 50s and 60s with a stout north breeze.
/Tonight through Tuesday/ Key Messages: -Windy with cooler temperatures and periodic rain through the end of the week Discussion: A band of rain approaching northwest Iowa this morning has expanded across the area throughout the day.
314 PM CDT Tue Apr 5 2022 Eastern Iowa, northwest Illinois, and far northeast Missouri remain to the north of a warm front that stretches across northern Missouri. Discussion: The well advertised 500 MB closed low is forecast to dig into central Minnesota and Wisconsin by 12 UTC Wednesday. Also, vorticity rotating around the closed low will bring scattered rain showers to the area that will spread from north to south. High temperatures to range from the upper 40s along the highway 20 corridor to the mid 50s south of a Fairfield to Galesburg line.
Without a cold frontal passage, there will not be an appreciable airmass change with temperatures rebounding some this afternoon, especially if the sun is able to make some of an appearance. A lifting warm front separates an air mass with sub-50-degree dew points and the warm, moist Gulf air with dew points pushing 65-70 degrees. A cold front moving into the region could, however, cause enough lift to tap into steeper lapse rates aloft see some thunderstorms develop. A broad upper-level low pressure system will slowly move east across the country through the weekend, keeping temperatures cooler and weather drier across our region.
Much drier air on the backside of this trough is allowing clouds to clear out which could result in some patchy fog overnight given the light winds and moist soil conditions. The attendant cold front will move into the Mid-South late tonight, moving southeast across the CWA during the day. CAM guidance continues to indicate a weakening line of convection moving into the CWA well after midnight along the cold front and this weakening trend will continue as the storms move into a more hostile environment. We still may end up with isolated strong thunderstorms in the vicinity of the front, but this activity will likely be undercut but the cooler, more stable air mass with light, post-frontal showers possible for a few hours in the wake of the boundary.
The overall pattern begins to buckle tonight, as a trough amplifies across the Northern Plains, and ridging builds along the northern Rockies. As the ridge pushes the trough east on Wednesday, the gusty winds will finally decrease for the western mountains and the I-80 corridor. Northwest flow takes over the pattern for a few days, as a ridge builds in behind the front.
As a result temperatures this afternoon have only climbed into the lower 60s in most areas. A line of strong to severe storms is shown developing ahead of the cold front that weakens as it moves further southeast and towards NW Alabama by Wednesday morning. Thus, those models keep the primary warm front and strong instability much further south than other models.
As this trough moves east of I-65 and the environment destabilizes out ahead of it, scattered convective development will become possible. The upper level trough becomes the dominant feature across the eastern U.
Cooler temperatures and lighter northerly winds are forecast for tomorrow.
235 PM EDT Tue Apr 5 2022 Low pressure shifting east across the Tennessee Valley will bring rain showers across the region today. Dry weather will continue tonight as the Ohio Valley is positioned under a building ridge just ahead of a much stronger northern stream system located over the upper Midwest. Guidance has been fairly consistent with timing the cold front associated with this system through the local area Wednesday afternoon through early evening. Best chance of storms will be in northeast Kentucky through the lower Scioto River Valley as SBCAPE of around 500J/kg (per 12km NAM) noses north just ahead of the front. Plenty of effective shear combined with this low-end instability requires some mention of organized convection, which matches marginal risk on SPC's Day 2 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook.
341 PM EDT Tue Apr 5 2022 Discussion/Marine - Rain Moves in Tonight, then Upper Low Follows Warm conveyor belt feature with northern stream low will bring about half to three quarters of an inch of rain tonight and Wednesday.
1134 AM EDT Tue Apr 5 2022 Update Latest visible satellite loop shows the low clouds across the southern half of the forecast area beginning to erode and clearing moving in from the east with light easterly low level flow. The warm front associated with the low will lift north through the cwa tonight. The cold frontal portion of the low extending south of the occlusion will move across the cwa after 08z. Once the cold front moves through, colder air aloft will move overhead. Precipitation will become more scattered and showery in nature for the next couple of days as the upper low slowly moves east.
06/00Z TAF CYCLE A cold front to the NW of AR this evening, with race to the SE thru the FA later tngt and Wed mrng.
Water vapor shows large upper trof covering the northwest and north-central CONUS, with one upper low over MN and the other extending from southern ALTA into northeast MT. Majority of precip that fell this morning associated with upper low over MN has shifted east, but steep lapse rates and cyclonic flow aloft has resulted in developing scattered showers across the area. Upper low currently to our northwest will elongate tonight as it phases with the MN upper low, then sweep through our forecast area overnight and Wednesday with a core of 70+ knot low/mid level winds.
High pressure aloft will settle across the area into the weekend.
Otherwise, much warmer than normal temperatures are expected to continue tonight and only bottom our in the mid to upper 60s at most locations. S stream trough axis, per RAP analysis, is centered across far S TX & will slowly eject to the E-NE into the overnight hours. With increased ascent from approaching suppressed wave into the overnight to mid-morning hours & N stream trough/frontal zone digging to the SE over the mid- upper MS Valley & Great Lakes, moisture will remain. The highest threat will be along & SE of the Natchez Trace & into the I-59 to Hwy 45 corridors.
- Rain Moves in Tonight, then Upper Low Follows Warm conveyor belt feature with northern stream low will bring about half to three quarters of an inch of rain tonight and Wednesday.
641 PM CDT Tue Apr 5 2022 Scattered showers will linger near the I-74 corridor east of Champaign late this afternoon, while a band of heavier showers and a few thunderstorms approaches from the west for tonight, ahead of a cold front.
Meanwhile, a cold front marking the leading edge of a continental polar air mass can be found across the Central Plains, extending from Harrisonville, MO to Blackwell, OK to Santa Rosa, NM. This cold front is forecast to reach the northwestern corner of the FWD CWA by 0100 CST, the DFW Metroplex by 0300 CST, and Killeen/Temple/Waco by 0500 CST. Peak wind gusts of 40-45 MPH appear likely in the few hours following the cold front passage.
Skies clear out overnight tonight and temperatures begin to trend warmer over the week as ridging builds in. Ridging is moving in and skies clear out overnight tonight and into tomorrow. Warmest locations in northern Nye county may hit the lows 70s.
High pressure will bring drier weather for the middle of the week.
Overnight, the cold front will approach from the west with warm advection continuing overnight. Temperatures will remain in the low to mid 60s.
753 PM EDT Tue Apr 5 2022 Periodic precipitation chances are expected through the week with a series of crossing low pressure systems. The forecast is on track as light rain associated with approaching low pressure is spreading over the Upper OH Region. Much of Wednesday will be dry during the day with southerly flow in place ahead of another low pressure system driving highs to 10+ degrees above average for the first week of April. While profiles will show skinny areas of CAPE strong support aloft will assure some development of thunder Wednesday afternoon and even Wednesday night with added forcing from the cold front. Scattered showers will then be possible the remainder of the week as a cold upper low settles in across the eastern CONUS.
Temperatures will be about 15-20 degrees cooler tomorrow with highs in the lower 70s.
1020 PM EDT Tue Apr 5 2022 Currently - A surface through lower level Atlantic ridge extends westward across the Bahamas and the Florida Straits. Meanwhile, broad ridging aloft is transitioning to essentially zonal flow with the subtropical jet running along the northern gulf coast. Short Term Update - Surface through lower level ridging will hold across the Straits through the overnight period. An Atlantic ridge stretching across the Florida Straits will maintain moderate southeasterly breezes on Keys waters through the overnight.
S stream trough axis, per RAP analysis, is centered across far S TX & will slowly eject to the E-NE into the overnight hours. With increased ascent from approaching suppressed wave into the overnight to mid-morning hours & N stream trough/frontal zone digging to the SE over the mid- upper MS Valley & Great Lakes, moisture will remain. The highest threat will be along & SE of the Natchez Trace & into the I-59 to Hwy 45 corridors.
856 PM EDT Tue Apr 5 2022 Low pressure will track south of Pennsylvania tonight.
A cold front wl move in vcty of GLH by 14Z and then progress through the rest of the area through the aftn. S stream trough axis, per RAP analysis, is centered across far S TX & will slowly eject to the E-NE into the overnight hours. With increased ascent from approaching suppressed wave into the overnight to mid-morning hours & N stream trough/frontal zone digging to the SE over the mid- upper MS Valley & Great Lakes, moisture will remain. The highest threat will be along & SE of the Natchez Trace & into the I-59 to Hwy 45 corridors.
As the inversion breaks tomorrow morning, the low clouds and fog will lift with gusty south winds redeveloping across the forecast area and skies will become partly cloudy.
750 PM CDT Tue Apr 5 2022 Showers and scattered thunderstorms will move across central Illinois tonight, ahead of a cold front.
637 PM CDT Tue Apr 5 2022 There is a narrow/very conditional window for convection along the cold front early this evening in far southeast Kansas, though despite modest instability, strong shear would support a locally strong storm.
513 PM MDT Tue Apr 5 2022 Water vapor shows large upper trof covering the northwest and north-central CONUS, with one upper low over MN and the other extending from southern ALTA into northeast MT. Majority of precip that fell this morning associated with upper low over MN has shifted east, but steep lapse rates and cyclonic flow aloft has resulted in developing scattered showers across the area. Upper low currently to our northwest will elongate tonight as it phases with the MN upper low, then sweep through our forecast area overnight and Wednesday with a core of 70+ knot low/mid level winds.
Deep upper trough is parked over the upper Midwest and Northern Plains, with embedded vort maxima rotating through the flow. However, warm BL with temps expected to remain above freezing most places on the plains should help mitigate impacts. Tongue of elevate moisture will remain over much of the FA this afternoon/evening with expected bouts of rain/snow showers with little or no accums expected given warm BL above freezing. Given persistent BL wind and buffr progs for warning level wind gusts, opted to extend the high wind warning through Thur for a few additional zones east of the BH, including Rapid City.
Along and west of this trough axis has been the focus for a mix of rain and snow across the region overnight. This trough axis will remain over the eastern part of the forecast area today but diminish in strength and moisture during the day. Winds have diminished enough overnight to cancel the High Wind Warning. A Lake Wind Advisory for Fort Peck Lake will replace the High Wind Warning. High pressure moves in tonight with clearing skies and diminishing winds.
(Today and tonight) Early this morning, a cold front is racing southward toward the Texas Hill Country. The cooler airmass moving in will lead to high temperatures today in the low to mid 70s.
Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Early this morning, vertically stacked low pressure is centered across central MN. Rain steadily progresses east across the forecast area today with cooler temperatures flooding back into northern Michigan tonight.
The cold front is expected to move in tomorrow morning, which will help with these conditions; bringing in a drier airmass down into our area.
1131 PM CDT Tue Apr 5 2022 Showers and scattered thunderstorms will move across central Illinois tonight, ahead of a cold front.
This boundary should slowly push northward through the day, while a cold front begins moving towards the region from the west. The cold front should be moving int overnight tonight, with some shower activity still possible through 06z. Temperatures will still be mild ahead of the cold front, with readings in the lower to middle 60s. A cold front will push into the forecast area during the morning hours. Highs will be in the low to mid 70s for most locations.
319 AM CDT Wed Apr 6 2022 A deep upper level low centered over Minnesota early this morning has driven a cold front southward through the southern High Plains. This gyre will move slowly eastward during the next two days while amplification of the upper pattern ends up carving out a broad upper trough over the eastern half of the CONUS. This pattern will favor slightly cooler than average temperatures today and tonight. Despite these cooler temperatures, the main story will remain fire weather potential.
(The rest of tonight) A strong cold front is moving southeast across the area and has reached the Interstate 44 corridor as of 10 pm. Tomorrow will be the first of several cool days across the FA as a very large low pressure system slowly moves through the Great Lakes region.
252 AM EDT Wed Apr 6 2022 A low pressure system pulls away early this morning. Another low pressure system pulls a strong cold front through tonight.
Today and Tonight, the area will see the vertically stacked low pressure spin just north of the area. This low to the north will also bring the chance for some scattered showers to areas mainly north of I 80 late this morning and through the afternoon.