Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
DRY AND COOLER AIR WILL INFILTRATE FOR MONDAY. DRY AIR ADVECTION TO AFFORD AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING MONDAY AFTERNOON AS CP AIRMASS/PLAINS RIDGE DENOTED BY 0. LL THERMAL TROUGH BLDS IN EARNEST WED W/RTN OF WELL ABV NORMAL TEMPS LINGERING INTO THU. BUT EXPECTING THESE LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS TO BE RELATIVELY SHORT LIVED AS LOW LEVEL DRY AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
231 AM EDT MON MAR 28 2016 SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CROSS THE AREA IN ASSOCIATION WITH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN AFTER TODAY PROVIDING DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH MIDWEEK. A NEGATIVELY-TILTED MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS ENHANCING MID- LEVEL SUPPORT FOR ASCENT AND INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 64 43 67 43 / 0 0 0 0 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 61 38 63 40 / 10 0 0 0 OAK RIDGE, TN 62 39 65 41 / 0 0 0 0 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 60 35 61 35 / 20 0 0 0.
The synoptic pattern will quickly evolve to broad zonal flow over the Southeast on Monday with high pressure settling into the eastern CONUS. Without any cloud cover or rain to hinder heating, we should instead see warmer conditions on Monday and Tuesday with highs around 80 degrees.
257 AM CDT MON MAR 28 2016 BENIGN WX EXPECTED FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS UA RIDGING COMMENCE TO PROGRESS EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL U. COURTESY OF SFC LEE TROUGHING DEEPENING IN RESPONSE TO THE BROAD UA LOW DIGGING SE ACROSS NRN CALI.
455 AM EDT MON MAR 28 2016 SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CROSS THE AREA IN ASSOCIATION WITH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN AFTER TODAY PROVIDING DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH MIDWEEK. A NEGATIVELY-TILTED MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS ENHANCING MID- LEVEL SUPPORT FOR ASCENT AND INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
MAIN FORECAST ISSUE WILL BE TIMING THE CLEARING OF THE LOW CLOUD COVER OVER THE REGION. ABOVE THE LOW CLOUDS ONLY EXPECT SOME SCATTERED MID LEVEL CLOUDS AT BEST FROM A SHORT WAVE CROSSING THE REGION LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AS MODEL RH FORECASTS SHOW POCKET OF MOISTURE CURRENTLY PRODUCING CLOUDS OVER ERN NORTH DAKOTA/NW MN WITH THIS FEATURE WILL DRY UP AS THE WAVE MOVES INTO THE STATE. WHILE SOME MIXING FROM DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY WINDS LATE WILL KEEP LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S WEST. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE PLAINS WILL BRING WARM AIR ADVECTION /WAA/ AND INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS TO SOUTHERN WI ON TUESDAY.
156 AM EDT MON MAR 28 2016 DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS THIS MORNING. ONCE THE LOW PASSES EAST OF VERMONT MONDAY EVENING.
COLD FRONT IS PRESENTLY BEARING DOWN ON SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY AND SHOULD PASS THROUGH THESE AREAS BY 5 AM. A NARROW BAND OF INTENSE SHOWERS WITH AN OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING STRIKE WILL ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE. THIS WILL LEAD TO A CHILLY NIGHT AS TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S. WHICH SHOULD ALLOW A QUICK RECOVERY IN TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOW 60S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. A DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL CRUISE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. WHILE A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH SKIRTS THE U.
THE WEAK COLD FRONT NOW LIES WELL OFFSHORE WITH SURFACE RIDGING OVERHEAD PROVIDING A LIGHT EAST-NORTHEAST FLOW. THE HIGH WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT MORE TOWARDS THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON SETTING UP A WEAK SOUTHEAST FLOW BUT HELPING TO ENHANCE THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION. STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG LOOKS TO DEVELOP WITH THE LIGHT UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE BRUSH COUNTRY AND THEN SPREAD BENEATH THE LOWERING INVERSION AREA-WIDE. DAYTIME HIGHS LOOK FAIRLY SIMILAR TO TODAY THOUGH WE SHOULD KEEP THE CLOUDS AROUND LONGER SO WE COULD END UP A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER.
355 AM EDT MON MAR 28 2016 REGIONAL SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT A LITTLE AHEAD OF SCHEDULE OF 24 HOUR PROGS. CONTINUE TO SEE SOME DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN EMANATING FROM THE LOW CIGS IN PLACE OVER PRIMARILY THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA. REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM LOOKS BENIGN AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE REGION. SHOULD NOT HAVE TO WORRY ABOUT ANY FREEZING CONDITIONS WITH LOWS MID 30S FOR THE FAR NE SECTIONS.
414 AM CDT MON MAR 28 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MS VALLEY TODAY. WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SITUATED ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST U. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE DURING THE DAY TUESDAY AHEAD OF LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE WESTERN US.
406 AM CDT MON MAR 28 2016 (Today and Tonight) Warmer temperatures are forecast today with afternoon highs across West Central Texas rebounding into the low to mid 70s for most locations.
THE HRRR SHOWS CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVING NORTHWEST WITH THE STEERING FLOW.
AND MAINLY DRY SUMMER WEATHER WILL BE WITH US THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL SHIFT WEST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TODAY. THE LOWER DEWPOINTS/RHS SHOULD PRECLUDE THE NEED OF ANY HEAT ADVISORIES. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. THE UPPER ANTICYCLONE OVER THE REGION WILL SHIFT WEST INTO THE CENTRAL US THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
1053 AM EDT FRI JUL 10 2015 WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THROUGH TONIGHT.
AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL SHIFT WESTWARD OVER THE WEEKEND. THE UPPER HIGH STILL LOOKS TO RETREAT WESTWARD OVER THE WEEKEND. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH LOOKS TO REMAIN EAST OF THE STATE. ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE PLAINS WHERE CONVECTION WILL BE SQUASHED FOR THE MOST PART DUE TO SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE HIGH.
630 AM CDT FRI JUL 10 2015 FRONTAL SYSTEM HAS EXITED THE STATE TO THE NORTH AT THIS TIME WITH UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST.
BUT COULD BE VARIABLE AT TIMES AS HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED NEARBY. 14 HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL CREATE LIGHT WINDS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A WEAK SURFACE TROF OR CONVERGENCE ZONE WILL EXIST ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA AND BE THE FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION. THIS TROF AXIS WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH CONVERGENCE FOR SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.
A WEAK SURFACE TROF OR CONVERGENCE ZONE WILL EXIST ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA AND BE THE FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION. THIS TROF AXIS WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH CONVERGENCE FOR SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.
1004 AM EDT FRI JUL 10 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO OUR REGION TODAY AND IS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH DRY AND SEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS.
PLEASE SEE THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS ON A GENERALLY COOLER AND A GRADUALLY DECREASING TREND IN THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.
WHETHER IT BE FROM AN OSCILLATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY OR SHORT WAVE TROUGH AXIS ALOFT FORECAST FOR LATER THIS EVENING/TONIGHT.
THIS ACTIVITY IS SPARKED IN ADVANCE OF A SHORT WAVE/RIPPLE OF DISTURBANCE MOVING OFF OF THE UPPER LOW OVER THE WEST. THE CLOUD COVER AND POTENTIAL RAIN AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS WILL HELP TO KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE COOLER SIDE.
A LARGE TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST WILL EJECT A DECENT DISTURBANCE WHICH WILL TRACK THROUGH OUR REGION IN THE SW FLOW ALOFT. AND CONFINE IT MAINLY TO AROUND AND NEAR THE HIGH COUNTRY OVER OUR WESTERN ZONES.
619 AM CDT FRI JUL 10 2015 06Z SFC DATA HAS HIGH PRESSURE OVER ILLINOIS WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM THE OHIO VALLEY BACK ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS. QUIET AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THE PROXIMITY OF THE HIGH OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION ALOFT. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR DUE TO SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT. NOCTURNAL STRATUS WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE HILL COUNTRY AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF THE CONCHO VALLEY AND THE BIG COUNTRY.
A WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. PLENTY OF INSOLATION WITHIN A NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE LOWER 90S IN MOST ISLAND COMMUNITIES.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS WILL SHIFT AND AMPLIFY INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MIDDLE 80S. THE CHANCES OF PCPN ARE VERY LOW AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL HELP TO SUPPRESS SHOWER DEVELOPMENT DURING THE DAYTIME. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SLOWLY SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND EAST. WHILE THE RIDGE WILL ACT TO SUPPRESS SHOWER AND STORM DEVELOPMENT. THE WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUING TO SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND EAST. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL LIFT FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE NORTHLAND DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THE NAM12 PCPN LAGS BEHIND THE GFS AND SREF BECAUSE OF SLOWER MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH THE LOWER 80S.
Main warm front to continue lifting north tonight with an increasing southwesterly low-level jet expected to provide plenty of low-level convergence for continued shwr/storm chances through the overnight. main story will finally be the return of the heat monster as upper ridging strengthens across the Southern Plains. This will result in primarily zonal flow across the lower Missouri Valley with leeside toughing across the Front Range allowing for the return of warm southerly flow.
730 AM EDT FRI JUL 10 2015 WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT.
WE EXPECT TO SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BREAK OUT ACROSS THE SNOWY AND LARAMIE RANGES BY LATE MORNING AS THAT NEXT PIECE OF MIDLEVEL ENERGY EJECTS OUT THE EAST SIDE OF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA UPPER LOW AND ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO.
/ISSUED 343 AM CDT FRI JUL 10 2015/ IT IS A TYPICAL MIDSUMMER NIGHT ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S WITH DEW POINTS ONLY A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER. MAYBE A DEGREE WARMER ON AVERAGE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 70S ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH AGAIN.
Deep layer high pressure will lead to hot temperatures and lower than normal rain chances for today. With less cloud cover and the upper ridge, temperatures will push into the mid and upper 90s.
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 96 74 93 73 / 10 10 30 10 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 94 71 88 70 / 10 20 40 20 OAK RIDGE, TN 93 71 89 71 / 10 20 40 20 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 89 67 85 66 / 40 40 40 30.
741 AM EDT FRI JUL 10 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST AND OVER THE REGION TODAY AND SATURDAY. BRINGING SLIGHTLY COOLER AND NOTABLY LESS HUMID WEATHER WITH LITTLE CHANCE FOR RAIN. A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL RIDE FROM THE MIDDLE OHIO RIVER VALLEY LATER TODAY INTO SATURDAY.
AS RIDGING SEEN BUILDING THROUGH THE PLAINS. ALSO LIKELY THAT SOME STORMS WILL START TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS WITH DIURNAL SUPPORT AND UPSLOPE.
WV LOOP SHOWS THE MAIN UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. BUT RIDGING SHOULD HANG ON OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS A BIT LONGER. BUT THINK THAT WITH THE TROUGH STILL WELL TO THE WEST AND NOT MUCH UPPER SUPPORT ALONG WITH MINIMAL CAPE BELOW 1000 J/KG IN ALL BUT THE FAR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES. TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. BUT MODELS HAVE THE LOW LEVEL JET STARTING TO CRANK UP JUST TO OUR SOUTH OVERNIGHT.
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WATER VAPOR SHOWS LARGE UPPER LOW OVER THE SWRN CONUS WITH LEAD WAVE ROTATING NEWD THROUGH THE CNTRL ROCKIES. UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING SHORT WAVE. BUT THIS DOWNSLOPE FLOW COMBINED WITH THERMAL RIDGE OVER THE WRN DAKOTAS WILL LEAD TO VERY WARM TEMPS.
1011 AM CDT FRI JUL 10 2015 ANALYSIS OF MORNING RAOBS SHOWED UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS CONTINUING TO BUILD FARTHER WEST. WITH THE RIDGE NOT FULLY ESTABLISHED OVER THE REGION TODAY AND ADDITIONAL MOISTURE COMING IN. AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO TOP OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 90S. HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL BUILD OVER THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES MORE ESTABLISHED.
811 AM EDT FRI JUL 10 2015 A DRY DAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN. HIGH PRESSURE AND THE LACK OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL PROVIDE A MAINLY DRY DAY WITH INCREASED SUNSHINE. WITH SHOWERS ENDING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN RIDGES SATURDAY MORNING. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL TAKE OVER BEHIND EXITING WAVE.
LARGE SCALE MID TROPOSPHERIC PATTERN FEATURES A CLOSED LOW NEAR THE NRN CA/WRN NV BORDER AND A RIDGE OVER THE SERN UNITED STATES. FAIRLY FAST SOUTHWEST FLOW WAS IN PLACE ACROSS THE DESERT SW INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. A WARM FRONT AT THE SURFACE WAS LOCATED WELL TO OUR SOUTH BUT WILL BE LIFTING NEWD TODAY AND TONIGHT. EXPECT TSTM CHANCES TO DECREASE FROM SW TO NE SATURDAY AS THE WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO LIFT NEWD AND MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES INCREASE TO 12 DEGREES C OR MORE.
524 AM MDT FRI JUL 10 2015 EARLY MORNING WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOWS LARGE SCALE UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WITH SW DIFFLUENT FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. A RIDGE OVER THE SE US HAS SHIFTED FURTHER EAST TOWARDS EASTERN TX. WARM FRONT IS PROGGED TO LIFT NORTH OF ACROSS THE CWA BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA. LOW LEVEL VEERING ALONG WARM FRONT COULD CERTAINLY SUPPORT A LIMITED TORNADO THREAT. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO MOVE WEST ACROSS SOUTHERN PLAINS. THERMAL TROUGH WILL BE CENTERED ACROSS THE CWA WHICH WILL SUPPORT HOT TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100 OVER A LOT OF THE AREA.
HIGH PRESSURE FM THE OHIO VALLEY THE UPPER GREAT LAKES CONTINUES TO HOLD. LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND WARM FRONT ARE CROSSING NORTHERN ONTARIO.
THE SURFACE TO MID LVL RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST THIS MORNING. PWAT VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO MODESTLY INCREASE TODAY AS MOISTURE WORKS IN AROUND THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE STRETCHING IN FROM THE ATLANTIC. THIS COMBINED WITH A WEAKNESS IN THE UPPER LVL RIDGE MAY ALLOW FOR A LOW END SCATTERED COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS AWAY FROM THE COAST, BUT MOSTLY AWAY FROM THE COAST. THE SAME IS EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY, HOWEVER RAIN CHANCES WILL BE DECREASING AGAIN LATE IN THE WEEKEND AS THE MID TO UPPER LVL RIDGE STRENGTHEN. THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD KEEPING TEMPS WARM AND RAIN CHANCES NEARLY NON-EXISTENT. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN STRETCHED FROM THE ATLANTIC AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.
A WEAKENING UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR INTO THE REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE REMNANTS OF THE LOW WILL KICK NORTHEAST TO WESTERN MONTANA LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
544 AM MDT FRI JUL 10 2015 BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN US WILL BLOCK THE LOW PRESSURE OVER CALIFORNIA FROM ADVANCING EAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE LOW OVER CALIFORNIA AND THE PACIFIC NW WILL DISSOLVE INTO GENERAL TROUGHY FLOW BY SATURDAY. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL ORIGINATE OFF OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN ONCE AGAIN AND MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. THE HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE SOUTHEAST US AMPLIFIES AND SHIFTS WEST ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW DRIER AIR TO FILTER INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION FOR A PRETTY MAJOR DOWNTURN IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AND TEMPERATURES 5 TO 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY. PERIODIC SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL EJECT FROM THE WEST COAST LONG WAVE TROUGH.
817 AM EDT FRI JUL 10 2015 AN UPPER RIDGE OVER OUR REGION WILL LEAD TO A GENERALLY DRY AND HOT PATTERN TODAY. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL RETROGRADE WESTWARD DURING THE WEEKEND. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WAS CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN STATES THIS MORNING WITH THE CORE OF THE WESTERLIES WELL TO THE NORTH ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY INTO NEW ENGLAND. MODELS INDICATE A LEE SIDE TROUGH ACROSS THE CAROLINAS WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW AT 850MB.
THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AGAIN IS KEEPING TEMPERATURES COOLER THAN ONE WOULD NORMALLY EXPECT AT THIS TIME OF THE DAY IN JULY. BUT SOME INCREASES SHOULD TAKE PLACE ONCE THE LOWER CLOUDS EXIT THE EASTERN CWA. AS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING SLOWLY BUILDS INTO THE MIDWEST. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE ADVANCING WARM FRONT. WILL GO WITH THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE ILLINOIS RIVER VALLEY WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT. WARMER AND MUCH MORE HUMID CONDITIONS WILL ARRIVE SATURDAY AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA.
A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND A WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT. A RIDGE BRINGING A DRYING TREND AND SOMEWHAT WARMER TEMPERATURES. THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS ON THE EAST SIDE OF AN UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA. WITH ELEMENTS OF THE TROUGH EJECTING TO THE NORTH. AND THE MEAN TROUGH WILL RE-POSITION ITSELF OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BY THE WEEKEND.
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL CONTINUE TO BE INHIBITED BY THE RIDGE. BUT A WEAKNESS IN THE UPPER LEVELS (~H200-300) WILL TRANSLATE EASTWARD ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY TODAY AND COULD BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT GREATER DIURNAL TSTM ACTIVITY. THE HIGH PERFORMANCE SSEO SUGGESTS GREATEST CONVECTIVE PROBS ROUGHLY ALONG/S OF THE HWY 84 CORRIDOR WITH A SLANT TOWARD ERN LA/SW MS. THE ENVIRONMENT LOOKS MORE HARSH FOR DEEP CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AS THE RIDGE INTENSIFIES.
UPPER RIDGE POSITIONED SLIGHTLY NORTHEAST OF AREA WILL ALLOW A BIT BETTER MOISTURE TO COME INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY.
MEANWHILE, UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL SLOWLY BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY. NEAR THE SURFACE, A LEE SIDE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS SLOWLY STRENGTHENING ACROSS EXTREME EASTERN COLORADO. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PERSISTED OVER CALIFORNIA EARLY THIS MORNING. SOME ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE ONGOING THIS MORNING; BUT SURFACE BASED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE DEPARTING TROUGH AXIS. MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL SHIFT FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BEGINNING SATURDAY AND PERSISTING THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. STRONG SOUTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS A LEE TROUGH STRENGTHENS ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO.
There is a significant flood risk across portions of southern Missouri generally along the Highway 60 corridor where storms are expected to train through the early morning hours. A surface warm front will lift north across the area today as the upper level ridge begins to expand northward. The upper level ridge will become a more dominant factor this weekend as it expands northward a bit and retrogrades to the west. Pilots can expect improving conditions today as a warm front lifts north across the area.
/ISSUED 336 AM CDT Fri Jul 10 2015/ (Today and Tonight) Upper level high pressure building in from the east, will bring quiet weather to West Central Texas for the next 24 hours.
1127 AM EDT FRI JUL 10 2015 A DRY DAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN. WITH SHOWERS ENDING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN RIDGES SATURDAY MORNING. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL TAKE OVER BEHIND EXITING WAVE.
TEMPS RUNNING IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 80S AS OF 10 AM. /ISSUED 340 AM CDT FRI JUL 10 2015/ AS THE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS TX.
LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS HAS SETTLED OVERHEAD LEADING TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE FLOW ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TO OUR NORTH CONTINUES TO KEEP A DRY AND SUBSIDENT AIRMASS ALOFT WITH THE MORNING SOUNDINGS SHOWING AN INVERSION AROUND 700MB WITH TEMPS AROUND +9C. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW 90S ALONG THE COAST. DESPITE WARMER TEMPS THE DRIER AIRMASS WILL LIMIT HEAT INDICIES. GOOD BOATING CONDITIONS CONTINUE TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS OVERHEAD.
626 AM CDT FRI JUL 10 2015 FOR 12Z TAFS /ISSUED 310 AM CDT FRI JUL 10 2015/ THE 00Z 500MB ANALYSIS SHOWS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. TEMPERATURES HAVE COOLED INTO THE LOWER 70S. AS THE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO SHIFT WESTWARD. WITH DEWPOINTS EXPECTED TO ONLY MIX OUT INTO THE LOWER 70S. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO RETREAT TO THE WEST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PERSISTED OVER CALIFORNIA EARLY THIS MORNING. SOME ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE ONGOING THIS MORNING; BUT SURFACE BASED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE DEPARTING TROUGH AXIS. MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL SHIFT FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BEGINNING SATURDAY AND PERSISTING THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. STRONG SOUTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS A LEE TROUGH STRENGTHENS ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO.
/ISSUED 352 AM CDT FRI JUL 10 2015/ One more fairly active day expected today before upper ridging brings an end to rain chances through the remainder of this forecast package. Southwest flow aloft will persist today with a rich mid level theta-e ridge oriented across the region. Expect thunderstorm activity to wane fairly quickly tonight as upper ridging slowly edges westward into the region.
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WITH MULTIPLE VORTICES CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE U.
LARGE UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS MORNING. STILL OTHERS ARE DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST. WITH A WARMER AND DRIER SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. STORMS SHOULD BE OF THE HIGHER BASED VARIETY. WARMER TEMPERATURES AHEAD.
LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW AND AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BRING COOLER CLOUDIER WEATHER TO WESTERN WASHINGTON.
DESPITE RIDGING ALOFT INCREASING. HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL BUILD OVER THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES MORE ESTABLISHED.
1048 AM EDT FRI JUL 10 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THIS WEEKEND, BRINGING FAIR SKIES AND CLEAR WEATHER. DRY AIR ADVECTION AND BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL TAKE OVER BY MID MORNING, BRINGING A PLEASANT SUMMER DAY AND A CLEAR OVERNIGHT.
AS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING SLOWLY BUILDS INTO THE MIDWEST. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE ADVANCING WARM FRONT. WILL GO WITH THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE ILLINOIS RIVER VALLEY WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT. WARMER AND MUCH MORE HUMID CONDITIONS WILL ARRIVE SATURDAY AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA.
A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD INTO SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA TODAY.
WARMER LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. TOMORROW TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH WARMER (LOWER 90S MANY INLAND LOCATIONS) WITH A DRY SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
220 PM EST WED MAR 2 2016 STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY THURSDAY BEFORE THE DRIER AIR AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION.
HIGH PRESSURE STARTED OFF OVER THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS MORNING AND IS NOW MOVING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. AN UPPER TROUGH ORIGINATING IN THE PLAINS WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA TOMORROW AND BRING A COLD FRONT ALONG WITH IT. THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM WILL BE DOMINATED BY A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH MOVES IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT. TEMPS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S AS NORTHERLY FLOW BRINGS IN COOLER AIR ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH.
A cold front will begin to approach the Northwest Big Country after midnight and move quickly across the entire area by mid morning. Slightly cooler temperatures and north winds for Thursday. In the near term, a cold front is expected to cross the region Thursday morning, with gusty northwest to northeast winds developing.
At 13Z, the surface cold front was analyzed to stretch from Charleston, SC southwestward to Keaton Beach, FL and then westward out over the northern Gulf waters. Behind the front, high pressure will build in eastward with zonal flow aloft.
TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WATER VAPOR SHOWS LARGE UPPER TROF MOVING THROUGH THE PAC NW INTO THE NRN ROCKIES. PRESSURE ARE FALLING ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS AS LEE TROF ADVANCES THROUGH ERN MT/ERN WY. UPPER TROF WILL WORK EWD INTO THE NRN PLAINS BY LATER IN THE DAY WITH CLOSED LOW SHIFTING INTO FAR ERN MT BY 00Z. UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN PROVIDING DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS. AN UPPER WAVE TOPS THE RIDGE THURSDAY NIGHT AND COULD PROVIDE SOME LIGHT PCPN ACROSS OUR NRN ZONES.
225 PM EST WED MAR 2 2016 COLD FRONT BETWEEN SARASOTA AND VENICE THIS AFTERNOON. COLD FRONT SOUTH OF AREA BY EVENING. A SMALL AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE COAST WATERS TONIGHT AND SOUTH OF THE AREA THURSDAY.
412 PM EST WED MAR 2 2016 LOW PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY MOVE AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST.
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXITING OUR EAST WITH RETURN FLOW FROM THE SE ALREADY ON THE SFC. NW WINDS WILL FILTER IN CLEARING SKIES BEHIND A COLD FRONT FROM W TO E 03/15Z-21Z.