Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
948 PM MST Mon Jan 22 2018 A few locations have already dropped to near the low temperature forecast. So with light winds, clear skies, and fresh snow, have tended to go towards the lower side of guidance and temperatures a couple of degrees lower overnight tonight than what was produced by the CONSShort guidance. Have also lowered the high temperatures expected on Tuesday over much of the area. Across the far southern portion of the forecast area where snow amounts are lower with a degree of melting that has taken place today under sunny skies, expect temperatures near or even slightly warmer than guidance across that portion of the forecast area.
Light to moderate snow/rain has been falling across north central Kansas this afternoon making its way east as it rotates counter- clockwise around the low pressure. Still expect hazardous road conditions and lower visibilities as this snow falls due to the high wind speeds between 20-25 mph sustained through midnight. As precipitation moves northeast out of the area, a changeover to all snow will be seen as temperatures fall below freezing. Winds decrease overnight as the low departs and lows will fall into the low to mid-20s. Dry conditions will persist tomorrow with diurnal heating bringing temperatures into the low 40s.
/issued 254 PM CST Sun Feb 18 2018/ Upper level southwesterly flow has set up across the region and will remain in place through the forecast period thanks to the continued southward digging of an upper level Pacific trough to our west.
350 AM CST Mon Feb 19 2018 The brief weekend warm spell has abruptly ended as cold air surged south behind a cold front Sunday evening/night. Freezing drizzle developed as expected shortly after 07Z across our central and northern cwa and with a little mix of snow at times. Lift over the low level moisture shifts off to the east this morning, bringing an end to our light wintry precipitation around mid morning. After a break from the light precipitation this afternoon, lift increases again during the evening as a mid level upper trough emerges from the Rockies onto the plains.
228 AM CST Mon Feb 19 2018 The winter weather advisory has been expanded this morning as freezing drizzle has developed and several areas have reported outdoor surfaces becoming slick. This will occur ahead of a cold front that will move through tonight. The main concern for the overnight hours is freezing drizzle. Nevertheless, the most favored areas for freezing drizzle will be north and east of a line from Ravenna, to Hastings to Superior. Looking closer at HRRR forecast soundings, we could even see some light sleet briefly mix in as temperatures in the lowest 1000' continue to drop. After a cold day on Monday, models indicate another round of wintry mix developing Monday night on an area of lift ahead of a deep trough approaching the area.
318 AM EST Mon Feb 19 2018 A frontal boundary south of the forecast area will lift north as a warm front today.
109 AM EST Mon Feb 19 2018 A warm front will approach the region from the southwest tonight.
1215 AM EST Mon Feb 19 2018 Rain and much warmer air will overspread the region today.
Did raise pops overnight in a narrow stripe from south central SD northeastward toward Brookings for what could be a brief bout of light freezing rain or light measurable snowfall. Winds this evening will begin swinging around to westerly and then northerly as the strong low pressure system, which brought this morning's winds, exits to the east. This system will advect and lift moist air around the eastern and northern side of the low pressure center, bringing a wintry mix of precipitation to most of northwest Iowa, portions of southern Minnesota, and the Sioux City vicinity during the early morning hours. Precipitation type will likely begin as freezing drizzle before changing over to sleet as the lowest saturated levels of the atmosphere cool below -10 C.
251 AM MST Mon Feb 19 2018 A cold upper level low pressure system in place over the western United States will maintain cloudy and very cold conditions across the northern Rockies and Montana with generally light snow decreasing to flurries through this afternoon.
1230 AM EST Mon Feb 19 2018 High pressure is expected to drift offshore tonight as a weak warm front begins to lift north through the area early Monday.
This will occur ahead of a cold front that will move through tonight. The main concern for the overnight hours is freezing drizzle. Nevertheless, the most favored areas for freezing drizzle will be north and east of a line from Ravenna, to Hastings to Superior. Looking closer at HRRR forecast soundings, we could even see some light sleet briefly mix in as temperatures in the lowest 1000' continue to drop. After a cold day on Monday, models indicate another round of wintry mix developing Monday night on an area of lift ahead of a deep trough approaching the area.
An upper level trough was developing in the western U. A surface front was stretching from a low in central MN into eastern Colorado this afternoon with a tight pressure gradient ahead of the low across our region. This pattern shift to a main trough out west and strong ridge off the east coast will provide our region with some active weather over the next 7 to 10 days. Wind, thunderstorms, heavy rain, possible flooding, sleet and freezing rain will all be in our upcoming forecast. Pinpointing the heaviest axis of rainfall, critical surface temperatures for duration of freezing rain and the amount of ice will all be the forecast issues this week.
410 AM EST Mon Feb 19 2018 Rain and much warmer air will overspread the region today.
326 AM EST Mon Feb 19 2018 A frontal boundary south of the forecast area will lift north as a warm front today.
125 AM EST Mon Feb 19 2018 Warm front lifts through this morning with rain. Cold front midweek brings showers and storms. A warm front is making its way through the coal fields, and will continue lifting northward through this morning. Did not make any significant changes to high/low for today and tonight with a very mild airmass moving in behind the warm front.
Also adjusted temperatures for the short term trend, as they will rise slightly overnight with a warm frontal passage. The warm front is still progged to push north of the Mid-South by early morning. Surface analysis this afternoon places a warm front over portions of Louisiana, Southern Mississippi and Alabama. Visible satellite trends have continued to indicate increasing clouds across the Mid-South throughout the day as the warm front is beginning to move north across the Lower Mississippi Valley. A warm front is expected to move north across the Mid-South tonight. At this time, expecting rain chances to gradually diminish south of I-40 overnight as the warm front continues to push north towards the Middle Mississippi Valley.
South winds look to continue to be around 10 to 15 mph tonight, and expecting low temperatures to be much warmer in the mid 50s thanks to southerly winds and cloud cover.
335 AM CST Mon Feb 19 2018 A warm front will continue to lift north across the area through the morning, generating scattered showers, and possibly a rumble of thunder. Gusty SSW winds will continue to push warmer and more humid air north across the region as well in the wake of the warm front.
Conditions are forecast to be VFR at most sites after 19 UTC with locations in western and northwestern Oklahoma as well as western north Texas having the highest chances for VFR conditions.
Temperatures are not favorable for either freezing rain or snow, so thinking that precipitation type should be mostly light freezing drizzle. One concern about icing in this case is a strong north to northeast wind will cause ice accrual on one side of objects which can create more problems as the weight of the ice is not evenly spread across whatever the drizzle is freezing to. This will likely cause a reenhancement of freezing drizzle across northwest IA. Close to Interstate 29 there are some issues with saturation aloft in the dendritic layer, but the lower levels indicate plenty of saturation so believe that at least some small snowflakes will be likely and will accumulate.
High pressure will ridge across the coastal waters through the period keeping a mostly E/SE flow with afternoon sea breezes possible near the coast.
105 AM EST Mon Feb 19 2018 A frontal boundary south of the forecast area will lift north as a warm front tonight into Monday morning.
P and freezing drizzle/rain with some snow mixed in over the SE half. Expect a mix of snow and freezing drizzle over roughly the NW half, favoring snow earlier in the night and a mix or more freezing drizzle later in the night. Over the SE half, mainly freezing drizzle will be favored. 500 mb trough in the Rockies and a strong 500 mb ridge off the se coast of the U. In the extended, GFS and ECMWF show a 500 mb ridge across the southeastern U. with a broad trough over the western U. Pattern changes little on Fri and then the trough starts to move into the Rockies and western high plains on Sat. Conditions will remain IFR into Mon evening as drying aloft will lead to the development of freezing drizzle.
Will now be addressing short term grids through 12z Monday as arctic air and possibility of freezing precipitation moves into the area. The main short term concerns are the critical fire weather conditions continuing into early this evening along with the minor possibility of light freezing drizzle working into the northern sections after midnight. But with a very dry airmass above the colder and nearly saturated layer, there is a possibility of light freezing drizzle. Have kept an area of freezing drizzle in across the north overnight as a result with a slight modification to the favored area of occurrence.
1245 AM EST Mon Feb 19 2018 Warm front lifts through this morning with rain. Cold front midweek brings showers and storms. A warm front is making its way through the coal fields, and will continue lifting northward through this morning. Did not make any significant changes to high/low for today and tonight with a very mild airmass moving in behind the warm front.
1008 PM MST Sun Feb 18 2018 Upper level analysis has large trof and associated low digging into the Pacific Northwest, with fast west southwest flow across the Northern Plains.
333 AM CST Mon Feb 19 2018 H5 analysis this evening had a closed low over Hudson Bay. A strong cold front pushed through the forecast area Sunday afternoon into the early evening hours. The main upper level trough of low pressure will cross the intermountain west today, approaching the northern Rockies tonight. Still wouldn't be surprised if we saw some higher amounts in the Pine Ridge as the surface wind field favors some local enhancement. Southwest flow aloft remains through the week with an Intermountain West trough, Hudson Bay low, and a Bermuda high.
both associated with the large low pressure system now settling into the southwest corner of Minnesota. Deformation zone snow which developed overnight north of the warm front and ahead of this low managed to spread a band of from 4 to 12 inches of snow largely between the Highway 200 and Highway 2 corridors from eastern ND into and across northwest MN.
Currently at upper levels, a longwave trough was established over the Pacific Northwest states, with southwest flow aloft streaming from the base of the trough northeastward across the northern US Rockies into the Dakotas. Meanwhile at the surface, low pressure upstream from the trough was centered over Colorado with an inverted trough extending from Colorado northeastward towards Minnesota.
1155 PM CST Sun Feb 18 2018 For the 19/06z TAFs, a band of showers and isolated thunderstorms has developed along a warm front from Central Texas, to just east of the DFW Metroplex, and northeast generally along Interstate 30 into Southwest Arkansas. KTXK is expected to be the only TAF site impact by any precip, but this should be early in the period as the warm front moves just far enough north to remove most of the showers from the TAF sites. A very slow improvement is expected through the daytime hours, but most sites should lift into at least the low end of VFR by 19/19z. /issued 918 PM CST Sun Feb 18 2018/ Warm front currently along a Tyler to Texarkana and El Dorado line continues to gradually shift north.
343 AM EST Mon Feb 19 2018 TODAY AND TONIGHT: Upper level ridge axis currently stretches across the FL peninsula early this morning, with a strengthening low level ridge as the main center moves off the New England coast. Upper level ridge center is expected to become more north-south oriented today. This will allow two disturbances, one located over the NW Bahamas/FL Straits, and another located just to the north of Hispaniola, to rotate into the region today and tonight as they round the base of the ridge. Otherwise, high temps remain 5-10 degrees above normal in the low to mid 80s, with a few upper 80s for interior Collier County.
403 AM EST Mon Feb 19 2018 High pressure is expected to drift offshore this morning as a weak warm front begins to lift north through the area.
High pressure will be to the Northeast this period. The circulation around the South side of this high is warm and moist. As this air moves over the cooler coastal waters, it will continue to produce stratus and fog. During the day the winds will help mix the lower levels, decreasing fog intensity. Temperatures will continue to be above normal Today, but due to the onshore flow readings will be about 8 to 10 degrees cooler at the beaches, as compared to inland locations.
Scattered IFR-MVFR showers over the higher terrain with mountain obscuration, isolated snow showers across Snake Basin of Idaho and SE Oregon.
Still some blowing and drifting of the accumulated fallen snow is possible as the brisk robust northerly winds blow behind the cold front tonight, and the winds are especially robust on the mountains. /Pelatti 06Z TAFS: Cold front separating a modified polar continental airmass to the north from a milder airmass to the south is to slowly sag to the south and east and away from the aviation area.
A trough over the western CONUS continues to dig south as it propagates east towards the region.
837 PM PST Sun Feb 18 2018 An Arctic cold front will bring gusty north winds and occasional snow showers through this evening. Still some blowing and drifting of the accumulated fallen snow is possible as the brisk robust northerly winds blow behind the cold front tonight, and the winds are especially robust on the mountains. A surface inverted trough along the Idaho/Washington border will delay improvement at the KPUW TAF site with MVFR -SHSN possible through much of the night.
229 AM EST Mon Feb 19 2018 High pressure will move off the East Coast on Monday.
Warm front lifting north through the area with some showers breaking out across northern sections this morning.
Gusty S-SE winds are expected on Monday as low pressure tracks across the central plains. Will carry a Caution statement elsewhere but southerly flow is having trouble mixing to the surface over the cooler nearshore waters.
Upper air analysis last evening showed a trough over the middle of the country with a ridge over the coast of northern Mexico and the southern US. At the surface, high pressure was centered over the southeast US and winds across our CWA were from the southeast. The upper level ridge over the west coast will move to the east today, but will be flattened through the rest of this period. The low level flow will continue from the southeast pumping moisture into the boundary layer.
A cold front currently located over central Nebraska will rapidly move southeastward through the area during the daylight hours, settling over southern MO by sunset. A mix of sun and clouds today, with temperatures warming into the middle 50s to middle 60s ahead of the cold front. With the dry air in the sub-cloud layer, there may be a modest gradient between the higher snowfall rates within favorable frontogenetical bands versus little snow. At this time, the highest probability for snowfall on the order of 2-4 inches looks to occur along and just north of the Highway 36 corridor.
The first one is a strong area of low pressure which will move east across the upper midwest today and across the great lakes tonight. A trailing cold front will move through this evening and then stall across Tennessee and Kentucky by Sunday. Meanwhile an area of low pressure will move east along this stalled front producing rain changing or becoming mixed with snow late Sunday and Sunday evening.
452 AM EDT Sat Mar 31 2018 A ridge of high pressure currently over the Appalachians will move east of the area today, but still provide fair weather. Meanwhile, aloft, the flow will be fast and progressive, and carry a cold front into the region from the northwest tonight with another round of rain.
Temperatures will continue well above average as a ridge builds in from the west today. The only thing to keep us from record territory with strong high pressure through northwest Mexico and southern Arizona is plenty of mid and high level moisture spreading in with the ridge.
Breezy to windy northeast to east winds are expected behind a cold frontal passage. Low temperatures generally in the low to mid 20s. We should see afternoon temperatures ranging from the low 40s east to the low 50s in far eastern Colorado.
Lighter amounts and warmer temps should lead to a sharp decrease in amounts to the south. Did not make any changes to the Wind Advisory for southeast Minnesota/northeast Iowa with south winds becoming northwest behind the cold front and potential for some gusts to 45 mph with tightening gradient/cold advection. Sunday will be dry and mostly sunny as high pressure builds across the region.
Dry high pressure continues to build across the Great TN Valley region this morning, all amidst broad H5 troughing aloft. In fact, trends have been slightly cooler than previously fcst, therefore did lower min temps a degree or so. A cold front diving southward through the Plains and into the Ohio valley tonight will lead to increasing sky coverage and pops late in the period, with pops topping out in the mid/high chance range over the NE Plateau, tapering to slight chance levels southeastward into the Great Valley by 12z Sunday.
152 AM EDT Sat Mar 31 2018 High pressure will build east across the middle Atlantic states today. The high will shift offshore by tonight, but continue to extend westward into the Carolinas through Sunday.
156 AM EDT Sat Mar 31 2018 Partly cloudy and dry conditions are expected tonight with lows into the low to mid 30s. Showers and gusty winds to 45 mph will accompany a strong cold front tomorrow.
Tomorrow will be even hotter in most areas, though a slow moving cold front will sneak into the northeastern Permian Basin dropping highs into the 60s and 70s in the Snyder area.
High pressure builds over the area tonight, thus very cold temperatures near or below zero across most areas north and east of Lake Sakakawea and the Missouri River, with single digits above in southwest ND.
/issued 330 AM CDT Sat Mar 31 2018/ SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday): Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley will remain on the northern periphery of 500 mb high pressure as it gradually transitions east from the Baja Peninsula to the Bay of Campeche. Meanwhile, high pressure will also prevail at the surface as it remains centered over the southeast United States.
252 AM CDT Sat Mar 31 2018 Clear and cool conditions across the area this morning with high pressure situated over the region.
Dry Westerly Flow with Shallow Cold Front Backing into the Plains Dry westerly flow across Colorado for the next 24 hours. Saturday afternoon, a shallow cold front will back into the far eastern plains. Northwest flow aloft will keep snow showers in place across the central mts Sat night and Sun, with up to an inch of new snow possible over the higher peaks of Lake County. Relatively mild conditions are expected for the high valleys, with highs on Sun forecast to climb into the 60s. Across the eastern plains, cooler east llvl winds will keep temps for the far east in the 50s, while along the I-25 corridor and closer to the eastern mts, temps will climb up into the 60s.
The low level jet is expected to tap in Gulf moisture, bringing MVFR and IFR(KSOA) stratus to all but the KABI terminal by daybreak. Strong south winds with gusts to 28 KTS are expected by mid morning at KABI and KSJT as lee trough strengthens. Temperatures will be warmer tonight due to an increase in low level moisture and expected cloud cover, with early morning lows mainly in the low to mid 50s. Low clouds will erode by late Saturday morning, with mostly sunny, breezy and warm conditions expected for the rest of the day with afternoon highs in the low to mid 80s.
An upper ridge over northern Mexico into the Desert Southwest today will move into south Texas on Sunday. Winds will become gusty from the southeast by this afternoon as an area of low pressure forms over the southern high plains.
with cold front trailing southwestward to Colorado. As the low tracks into the Great Lakes, it will pull the cold front into central Illinois this afternoon. Windy and warmer conditions will develop ahead of the approaching boundary, with SW winds gusting 30-35mph later this morning. Clusters of showers with a few embedded thunderstorms are currently developing immediately ahead of the low across central Iowa, and these should continue to develop/spread eastward into the Illinois River Valley by around dawn. Highest gusts in the 35-40mph range will occur immediately behind the cold front this afternoon as CAA commences. Further E/SE, temps will be slightly warmer and the transition to snow will be slower.
Temperatures on Saturday will be quite a bit cooler than today, especially in the north. There will likely be a snow band that sets up somewhere, but the models have a few differences in the location and how much moisture there will be available, especially in the lower levels.
While a few showers will be possible across parts of northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas today, the better chances for showers and thunderstorms will be near and after sunset along and north of a cold front that will move south across the area. The shallow cold air will take its time moving across the higher terrain of far southeast Oklahoma, so Sunday will see a wide range of temperatures, with temperatures falling to near freezing in the afternoon in parts of northeast Oklahoma, while the far southeast will remain in the 60s.
There are still a few areas of light snow early this morning as a cold front departs northeast Montana. By this afternoon, skies will clear from the north as a high pressure ridge moves through the area.
305 AM MDT Sat Mar 31 2018 A cold front is already pushing through Ft Morgan and Windsor this morning, and should make it into the Denver area in the next hour or so. A short wave trough embedded in the west-northwest flow aloft will graze northeast Colorado Sunday morning.
Temperatures will be slightly cooler today in response to this system, but temperatures should still be close to normal values. An approaching cold front will send some moisture across the West Central Mountains, Boise Mountains, and into the higher elevations of Baker County during the late afternoon hours.
325 AM EDT Sat Mar 31 2018 A ridge of high pressure will move through from the west today and off the coast tonight.
255 AM CDT Sat Mar 31 2018 A cold front moving southward through northwest Colorado and southwest Nebraska early this morning will enter the northern part of the forecast area this afternoon, likely stalling not too long after doing so. This cold air will act similarly to the cold front and stall across the forecast area during the day Sunday, while to the southwest of Lubbock southeast to south winds will erode the initial cool surge. This sets up a tricky forecast for the high temperature field with the potential for both a big gradient across the area and a big bust.