Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
119 AM EDT Tue Aug 20 2019 Atlantic high pressure and an inland trough will prevail until late week when a cold front possibly affects the area. Lows will range from the lower-mid 70s inland to the mid-upper 70s across the coastal counties, except around 80 at the beaches. Aloft, a weak low will break up the mid level ridge centered over the western Atlantic and south central U.
304 AM CDT Tue Aug 20 2019 The upper ridge continues over the region today with continued hot temperatures. High temperatures today are expected to be slightly cooler than yesterday with lower 850 mb temperatures.
1209 AM EDT Tue Aug 20 2019 A cold front will cross the region tonight. High pressure will move across the region Tuesday.
1029 AM EDT Tue Aug 20 2019 High pressure will build over the region today and will slide off to the southeast tonight. Return flow will bring a very warm and humid airmass into the region on Wednesday ahead of an approaching cold front.
344 AM PDT Tue Aug 20 2019 High pressure will continue the warming trend through Wednesday with the peak of the heat for inland areas expected on Wednesday.
334 AM MDT Tue Aug 20 2019 Hot and dry conditions will persist today with high pressure in control of the weather. 5 inches for much of the area except a thin sliver of the highest peaks along the divide.
High pressure building in over the region will result in continued warm and dry conditions over the next few days. High pressure oriented over the central plains states attm will continue to slowly retrograde along the US/Mexico border over the next 48 hours, this maintaining a bone dry and benign weather pattern locally. A modest southwesterly flow aloft within this regime will continue to promote deep mixing of the warmer than normal airmass in place, with temps both today and tomorrow poised to run some 5-7 degrees above seasonal norms. With the monsoon suppressed by less than ideal ridge position, and the northern branch well north in Canada, benign conditions will continue with only shallow boundaries bringing subtle sensible weather changes moving forward.
High pressure building in over the region will result in continued warm and dry conditions over the next few days.
932 AM EDT Tue Aug 20 2019 Latest RAP surface analysis shows high pressure from the western Atlantic extending west across the northern peninsula and into the eastern Gulf this morning with an east-southeast wind flow across the forecast area. High pressure across the northern peninsula will maintain east southeast winds around 10 knots with seas of 2 feet or less over the Gulf waters the remainder of today with an onshore sea breeze component developing along the coast from Sarasota north during the afternoon.
532 AM MDT Tue Aug 20 2019 Hot and dry conditions will persist today with high pressure in control of the weather. 5 inches for much of the area except a thin sliver of the highest peaks along the divide.
Upper trough moving through the PacNW and brushing NorCal will continue the slightly below average temperatures across the region today. Temperatures begin to warm mid-week as the trough shifts east and high pressure strengthens.
Storms look to develop during the evening north of the frontal boundary along the I-80 corridor as the low level jet increases tonight. Wednesday night the upper ridge will break down as a upper trough moves south across the eastern Plains and Great Lakes.
/issued 324 AM EDT Tue Aug 20 2019/ Mid level ridging resides over the Desert Southwest and the southern high plains. a Canadian trough swings across the northeast quarter of the nation. and a weak Atlantic ridge nudges in across FL through Wed night. At the surface Atlantic high pressure extends west. For Thu through Mon: Atlantic mid level and surface ridging/ with an axis along the GA/FL border/ dominates through much of the period. Then during the weekend an inverted trough may track through the Bahamas and across FL. The latest GFS and ECMWF handle the inverted trough slightly differently. High pressure ridging north of the waters will maintain southeasterly winds.
419 AM CDT Tue Aug 20 2019 Skies are currently clear across the Mid-South with high pressure in place and continued southerly flow.
Thereafter warmer temperatures are expected across the interior during late week. Weak troughing will aid in maintaining seasonable temperatures and generally pleasant conditions across NW California through mid week. Model guidance continues to show an upper trough moving inland over the Pacific Northwest during Wednesday, and that feature is forecast to drive a weak cold front towards the northern portion of the area. The trough will quickly depart Wednesday night, leaving the area beneath quasi-zonal flow during the end of the week. Expect interior temperatures to gradually trend upward during this time as heights slowly rise and 850 mb temps increase from the mid to upper teens into the low 20s C.
Upper ridging will strengthen over much of the area and with the higher heights temperatures will climb into the low/mid 90s. The hot temperatures combined with dewpoints in the low/mid 70s will create heat indices in the 106 to 109 range across the delta and the northeast and from 100 to 105 for the remaining areas. With the strengthening ridge over the ArkLaMiss expect mainly just isolated thunderstorms over most of the area, with scattered storms possible across the south and southeast.
/issued 304 AM CDT Tue Aug 20 2019/ The upper ridge continues over the region today with continued hot temperatures. High temperatures today are expected to be slightly cooler than yesterday with lower 850 mb temperatures. The upper ridge becomes more flattened over the region on Wednesday resulting in slightly cooler temperatures.
CAMs are in generally agreement next round of convection will form along axis of sfc-3km CAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg somewhere between western and central NE with intensification of low level jet and boundary layer moisture convergence with the approach of a cold front dropping into the Central Plains.
Cold front will push thru the area although should come thru dry. Some lingering showers are possible across NW IA into Wednesday but otherwise cooler and drier air, along with clearing skies will work in from the north. Mid level ridging builds to our west by the middle of the week and will allow for mostly quiet and dry conditions thru the end of the work week. Otherwise cold front will continue to work thru the area today and turn winds more northerly.
Today through Wednesday Weak high pressure and upper-level ridging will continue to affect the area through Wednesday. The result of the boundary will be somewhat cooler temperatures east of the divide today with slightly higher afternoon humidities in the mid to upper teens. While southwest WY will remain quite warm and dry under the high pressure, winds should be weaker to lessen the fire weather conditions. High pressure continues over western and central Wyoming through Wednesday morning. A back door cold front (north to northeast wind) will move into the Bighorn Basin and lower elevations of Johnson County this morning.
As a cold front comes through the area on Wednesday, expect another round of showers and thunderstorms, although the severe weather threat will be much lower.
The upper level ridge will continue to be the dominant feature, however, there will be a few scattered showers/storms this afternoon with increasing moisture.
Do see a breakdown of the eastern periphery of mid and upper level ridge over the area through the latter part of the week.
516 AM MDT Tue Aug 20 2019 Upper flow is weakly ridged over the northern Rockies. At the surface, a cold front is pushing into the CWA from the north. As the front moves through the CWA and high pressure sinks into the Dakotas, easterly winds will become breezy. Beneath the cooler airmass, temperatures Wednesday will be only in the 70s to lower 80s, warmer across northeastern WY.
831 AM EDT Tue Aug 20 2019 Fairly quiet conditions this morning as the trough of low pressure has moved into South Carolina and weak ridging has pushed into the area. The ridge axis was near the Florida/Georgia border. The 12Z sounding showed light south/southeast winds in the low levels and southwesterly flow aloft. Highs will be in the lower 90s today, except the upper 80s at the beaches.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 97 73 91 74 / 40 40 30 50 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 95 71 90 72 / 30 30 30 50 Oak Ridge, TN 96 71 90 72 / 30 30 40 50 Tri Cities Airport, TN 93 67 88 68 / 30 20 40 50.
Increasing moisture late Wednesday onward will bring scattered thunderstorms to the area with cooler, near normal temperatures this weekend. Until then, an Excessive Heat Warning remains in effect for the lower deserts of Arizona today and Wednesday.
As cold front from this feature approaches today, will have to watch for development and isolated severe weather risk depending on how much CAPE can build northward in wake of southern, morning MCS. Evolution of upper low and trough across eastern Canada will likely drive boundary south of the area by Wednesday with several promised days of quiet, cooler, and drier weather. A cold front will then slide across the area this afternoon but any shra/ts associated with this boundary are expected to remain north of the KRST/KLSE sites. Otherwise, VFR conditions expected through tonight as high pressure builds in from the Northern Plains.
Another hot and humid day is expected across the area with a mid- level ridge centered across the Southern Plains. By Wednesday, a mid-level trough is forecast to dig across the Midwest. As this occurs, the mid-level ridge will become less amplified.
Both the surface/upper mid- level ridges continue to remain north of the local area due to unsettledness southward. Ridge axis remains north of the local waters.
612 AM CDT Tue Aug 20 2019 Continued VFR with upper level high pressure overhead. The surface pressure trough will be located well into New Mexico again this afternoon. The upper level ridge will become weakly defined at mid levels for the rest of the week.
/issued 419 AM CDT Tue Aug 20 2019/ Skies are currently clear across the Mid-South with high pressure in place and continued southerly flow.
On our marine district, winds are east to southeast at 10 to 15 knots with the higher winds in portions of the Reef Tract and the Straits of Florida. A low and mid level trough below 700 mb lying near our region early this morning, will move westward and across our area and into the Southeast Gulf of Mexico tonight. Meanwhile, an upper level trough (above 500 mb) will pinch off with the bulk of the large scale ascent remaining over the Bahamas. However, ample moisture combined with low level confluence on the back side of the low level trough should result in an increase in precipitation coverage this afternoon and into tonight.
658 AM EDT Tue Aug 20 2019 High pressure will build over the region today and will slide off to the southeast tonight. Return flow will bring a very warm and humid airmass into the region on Wednesday ahead of an approaching cold front.
353 AM MDT Tue Aug 20 2019 High pressure will drop into the northern plains today, resulting in slightly cooler temperatures. An upper ridge begins rebounding into the state in response to an upper trof digging into the Pacific Northwest.
Models remain in good agreement with sliding an upper level trough axis southeast across the Upper Mississippi River Valley Wed/Wed night. Meanwhile at the sfc, high pressure builds in from the plains. Outside of some clouds, expect minimal impacts from the upper level trough as a result. Expect some waning in areal extent/intensity as it loses the influence of the low level jet, but still follows along the edge of the main bubble of instability.
A cold front is currently draped across the Sandhills and will be the focus for convective development through tonight. Forecast soundings suggest keeping at least 1000+ j/kg of MUCAPE into the nocturnal hours while the low level jet develops. Veering winds in the lowest 3km may support supercells upon convective initiation (early evening), leading to a large hail threat. Temperature-wise, trended cooler with max temps for Wednesday with lower/mid 70s in the Sandhills where cloud cover will be thickest and upper 70s elsewhere. Over the next several days, Nebraska lies on the periphery of the upper ridge centered over the Desert Southwest and longwave trough digging into the Northern Plains.
Cold front will push thru the area although should come thru dry. Some lingering showers are possible across NW IA into Wednesday but otherwise cooler and drier air, along with clearing skies will work in from the north. Mid level ridging builds to our west by the middle of the week and will allow for mostly quiet and dry conditions thru the end of the work week.
318 PM CDT Tue Aug 20 2019 A frontal boundary ahead of approaching high pressure has now worked its way through the entire area, with the center of the high still up in Canada. The high will continue to slowly sink southward tonight through Wednesday night, keeping conditions mainly dry. Lows on Wednesday night will be in the lower to mid 50s. The period begins with an area of high pressure to the east and a low pressure to the west.
225 PM MDT Tue Aug 20 2019 Currently, an upper level ridge sits over the central plains generating SW flow aloft. Despite the cooler temperatures, remnants of the surface front will be the main driving force behind showers and storms that afternoon.
As the low level jet intensifies, expect thunderstorms to develop across Nebraska and move north potentially brushing the highway 20 corridor. Cooler, less humid, conditions expected on Wednesday as cool dry airmass spreads across the region. Clear skies and light winds expected Wednesday night will allow temperatures to fall below normal into the low and mid 50s.
Instability will remain on Wed, but lapse rates are expected to weaken (either from being worked over by Tue storms or from advection of warmer air aloft). So, although thunderstorms can be expected ahead of a swd-advancing cold front, potential for strong updrafts is diminished by Wed afternoon. A cold front will advance toward the region on Thu, and greatest rain chances shift swd with the boundary. As high pressure builds in behind the front amid a broad upper-level trough in the ern CONUS, and dry air erodes any low-level moisture, a seasonal end to the week is anticipated, with little humidity and minimal rain chances. Development will be dependent on the evolution of an upstream MCS moving through the lower OH River Valley and the need for some elevated instability to remain within our region.
The good news is that some weakness will develop in the 500mb subtropical ridge across deep south Texas and northeast Mexico tonight into Wednesday as a 500mb inverted trough moves across the Bay of Campeche Wed afternoon.
Increasing moisture late Wednesday onward will bring scattered thunderstorms to the area with cooler, near normal temperatures this weekend. Excessive Heat Warning goes into effect at 11 am for the lower elevations of Pima, Pinal and Graham counties and continues through 8 pm Wednesday. This will result in a slight uptick in thunderstorms, but mainly over the higher terrain south and east of Tucson.
Given the high soil moisture values in place at KMCB, KBTR, KHDC, and KASD from previous rains, another round of low ceilings and fog will be possible tonight. The low stratus deck should gradually lift into an MVFR layer of 1500 to 2000 feet at these terminals after 15z tomorrow.
Meanwhile, an upper level trough axis trails back across the Straits from a TUTT low over the northern Bahamas. Past this afternoon, gentle to moderate east breezes will prevail in response to a subtropical Atlantic ridge axis over far North Florida.
The atmosphere is rather unstable inland with cooler temperatures aloft (500 mb at -7C) and temperatures in the upper 80s and lower 90s. Temperatures drop into the low to mid 70s.
Cooler temperatures and pleasant conditions are expected during this time.
231 PM MDT Tue Aug 20 2019 A ridge will keep the area dry through Wednesday with highs warming to the upper 80s for Wednesday afternoon.
Overall, temperatures are about a degree or two cooler than this time yesterday with some sites unchanged. Scattered showers and storms will continue across the Coastal Plains this afternoon aided by a weak inverted coastal trough. For tomorrow, the ridge is expected to continue to break down which should allow high temperatures to be another degree or two cooler than today. The inverted trough axis will be west of the region and the overall coverage of showers and storms will be less as a result.
One more day under a ridge of high pressure which will provide warmer then normal temperatures and mostly clear skies today. Will start to see some increasing clouds overnight from an approaching upper level trough that will push a cold front through the forecast area on Wednesday. This cloud cover will help provide warmer than normal temperatures for overnight too.
In the wake of this front, high pressure will build into the area by the weekend.
Instability will remain on Wed, but lapse rates are expected to weaken (either from being worked over by Tue storms or from advection of warmer air aloft). So, although thunderstorms can be expected ahead of a swd-advancing cold front, potential for strong updrafts is diminished by Wed afternoon. A cold front will advance toward the region on Thu, and greatest rain chances shift swd with the boundary. As high pressure builds in behind the front amid a broad upper-level trough in the ern CONUS, and dry air erodes any low-level moisture, a seasonal end to the week is anticipated, with little humidity and minimal rain chances. A thunderstorm complex will form this afternoon over western OH in the wake of a decaying MCS moving through the lower OH river valley.
The mid to upper level ridge will remain situated over north central Texas tonight through Wednesday night. Drier air in the low levels will continue over the region tonight with the higher moisture axis staying over the Gulf waters.
Today through Wednesday Weak high pressure and upper-level ridging will continue to affect the area through Wednesday. The result of the boundary will be somewhat cooler temperatures east of the divide today with slightly higher afternoon humidities in the mid to upper teens. While southwest WY will remain quite warm and dry under the high pressure, winds should be weaker to lessen the fire weather conditions. A back door cold front (north to northeast wind) will move into the Bighorn Basin and lower elevations of Johnson County this morning.
The higher moisture remains near the Mid-Coast region where GOES TPW image shows precipitable water values near 1.
Models continue to advertise Pacific trough coming through Wednesday night. Cold front front into Oregon zones late Wednesday afternoon and Idaho on Wednesday evening.
810 AM PDT Tue Aug 20 2019 High pressure aloft will bring hot weather to the valleys and deserts today and tomorrow.
As cold front from this feature approaches today, will have to watch for development and isolated severe weather risk depending on how much CAPE can build northward in wake of southern, morning MCS. Evolution of upper low and trough across eastern Canada will likely drive boundary south of the area by Wednesday with several promised days of quiet, cooler, and drier weather.
Expect mostly sunny skies today over most of the area as upper ridging strengthens across the area. Upper ridging will strengthen over much of the area and with the higher heights temperatures will climb into the low/mid 90s. The hot temperatures combined with dewpoints in the low/mid 70s will create heat indices in the 106 to 109 range across the delta and the northeast and from 100 to 105 for the remaining areas. With the strengthening ridge over the ArkLaMiss expect mainly just isolated thunderstorms over most of the area, with scattered storms possible across the south and southeast.
This low will move northeastward over the Carolinas into Wednesday, with drier westerly flow setting up behind it. The area will remain situated in the weak upper trough between the ridge over the Plains and western Atlantic ridge.
However, for Wednesday, an approaching cold front is expected to bring quite windy conditions, especially in the later evening and overnight hours. Widespread rain showers and scattered thunderstorms will also accompany the cold front as it pushes through in the overnight hours.
Isolated diurnal thunderstorms have developed within the last hour or so across the higher terrain areas of southeast Oklahoma and western Arkansas. Tomorrow, temperatures and heat indices across parts of northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas, especially along the Kansas and Missouri borders, will be heavily influenced by expected cloud cover and more organized afternoon thunderstorm potential as the upper level ridge begins to weaken and a boundary nears the area.
High pressure will nose in from the west this afternoon and evening, and thus expect continued clearing ahead of a cold front across the upper Midwest. Will be trending drier and cooler into the end of the work week, as high pressure builds across the region. With this high in place, any precip development into this weekend will stay well west/southwest of the area. Rodriguez Multiple forecast concerns center around: -Departing thunderstorms -Additional shower and some TS development -Wind directions in the near term -Fog and low ceilings tonight into Weds A mesoscale low pressure in wake of the morning storm complex will shift through the terminals this afternoon.
Away from the rain, sfc obs were showing temps in the lower/mid 90s with heat index values in exceeding 100F.
A cold front will move in Wednesday with a chance of showers and thunderstorms mainly south of route 30.
Expect a repeat tomorrow as the upper ridge remains over the Southern Plains and dewpoints pool ahead of an approaching cold front.
No precipitation expected, and highs should be well below seasonal averages in the low to mid 70s. 12Z Thu - 00Z Sat Upper level trough over the western Great Lakes exits the area. Upper level ridge will move across the area this period.
A warm front lifting north across the state today will provide the focus scattered, mainly afternoon showers and thunderstorms.
The MCS over the southern Illinois area is forecast to move southeast, but most models, including the CAMS, have it weakening significantly/and or dying completely before it makes it into our area which seems reasonable given the lower CAPE values here.
Models continue to slowly break down the ridge through the end of the week which will not only help bring high temperatures down a few degrees per day but allow the mid-level moisture plume to shift a bit more east on Wednesday.
/issued 932 AM EDT Tue Aug 20 2019/ Latest RAP surface analysis shows high pressure from the western Atlantic extending west across the northern peninsula and into the eastern Gulf this morning with an east-southeast wind flow across the forecast area. High pressure across the northern peninsula will maintain east southeast winds around 10 knots with seas of 2 feet or less over the Gulf waters the remainder of today with an onshore sea breeze component developing along the coast from Sarasota north during the afternoon.
This Evening Through Tuesday Upper level ridge axis is positioned over the forecast area. Amplitude of upper ridge builds ahead of long wave trof crossing the Rockies Thur and Fri with embedded waves producing isolated to scattered thunderstorms. and trof broadens over northern Plains with lowering heights leading to a cooling trend by the weekend.
Temperatures will likely be a few degrees cooler than today, though it will still be hot.
1114 AM MDT Tue Aug 20 2019 Hot and dry conditions will persist today with high pressure in control of the weather. 5 inches for much of the area except a thin sliver of the highest peaks along the divide.
Overnight the cold front will be nearing the region and very isolated showers/storms are possible along the front.
PoPs should be confined to the higher terrain this afternoon, then push out onto the plains this evening.