Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1028 AM CDT Mon Oct 28 2019 Not much going on today with only high cirrus streaming in from the southwest with west to southwest surface winds in advance of a low pressure area. Mid 30s to the lower 40s look good for afternoon highs. A deep upper trough will continue to dominate the pattern in the short term, keeping the Dakotas entrenched in a cold airmass. This cold air will be reinforced at the sfc as a cold front sweeps through late this afternoon. Cold air remains the story of the extended with a semi-permanent upper trough over the region through the period.
The cold front that moved through the area overnight stalled just south of the I-10 corridor this afternoon and is slowly lifting back to the north as a warm front.
A strong cold front is crossing southeast MT, with temps in the teens and 20s behind the front. The highest snowfall still looks to be with upslope enhancement across the northern Black Hills and surrounding foothills, with 3-6" of snow. Some model outputs are showing up to 8 inches of snow falling across the northern Black Hills, but there is some question as to how steep the low level lapse rates will be and how strong the upslope will be.
352 PM CDT Mon Oct 28 2019 A cold front is through all but two of the counties in our forecast area (Bryan and Atoka), but should advance through them this evening/tonight. The reduced cloud cover will probably allow temperatures to drop below freezing over much of central and western Oklahoma. As the cold air deepens over the next couple of days, some freezing rain and sleet (and possibly some snow) will be possible, mainly over northwest Oklahoma.
However, peaks at the sun this afternoon will be short lived due to increasing moisture advection into the low levels from the Gulf tonight. Our short stint of dry weather will come to an end for mid-week as a warm front moves north into the region. There look to be some timing differences in the passage of the cold front that should move through sometime mid-week.
A surface cold front continues to progress southeast through the forecast area, with surface analysis showing it located in between Bismarck and Linton as of 19Z. Low temperatures tonight will be the coldest of the season, with the southwest dropping into the low teens and possibly single digits. On Tuesday, expecting a similar day compared to today, as the base of the upper-level trough finally passes through North Dakota. At the surface, high pressure will begin building to our west in Montana, with continued breezy northwesterly winds. High temperatures will be slightly cooler than today in the wake of the cold front, with highs in the mid 20s to low 30s.
329 PM EDT Mon Oct 28 2019 A cold front will bring cooler temperatures and low chances for rain into northwest Indiana and southwest Michigan tonight into Tuesday morning, and into northeast Indiana and northwest Ohio Tuesday afternoon.
Any decrease in winds will be brief with moderate to strong north to northeast winds expected Tuesday afternoon as the thermal trough strengthens.
A cold front across north and central Texas will approach the region overnight, but models are consistent in indicating the upper disturbance driving the front will not be strong enough to push it through our area, so we will have to await the next, stronger impulse to finally drive it through our area (see discussion below for more information on that second impulse).
/Issued 1024 AM CDT Mon Oct 28 2019/ Shallow cold front is hung up in the higher terrain areas of southeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas this morning and is expected to make little progress through the day Today.
However, as a trough deepens to our west, ceilings will again drop to at least MVFR by Tuesday morning/afternoon. /issued 352 PM CDT Mon Oct 28 2019/ A cold front is through all but two of the counties in our forecast area (Bryan and Atoka), but should advance through them this evening/tonight. The reduced cloud cover will probably allow temperatures to drop below freezing over much of central and western Oklahoma. As the cold air deepens over the next couple of days, some freezing rain and sleet (and possibly some snow) will be possible, mainly over northwest Oklahoma.
A cold front will sink south across the cwa tonight into Tuesday morning.
A few weather systems passing north of the area will bring cooler than normal temperatures much of this week.
There could be a threat for some freezing fog late tonight or early Tuesday morning across parts of the region. Also, confidence is low as to where or if any freezing fog will form.
326 PM MDT Mon Oct 28 2019 Scattered snow showers have diminished over northeast Montana ahead of the cold front from Canada. For the rest of today and overnight, temperatures will continue to drop as an upper level trough proceeds eastward.
Short term models again have the cloud cover progressing slowly eastward overnight, which may improve fog conditions from west to east, but nighttime RGB satellite data lighting up the low lying areas and river valleys with dense fog very quickly this evening.
Large scale pattern consisting of a deep longwave trough pretty much encompassing the CONUS this afternoon. At the surface, high pressure was in control over across the central Plains. Tonight As the upper trough pushes farther east, large scale ascent will increase late this afternoon and into the early evening hours. By early this evening, max layer temps aloft will fall below freezing thus supportive for all snow.
415 PM CDT Mon Oct 28 2019 Warm frontogenesis zone evident on satellite imagery about 100 miles south of the Mississippi Delta, slowly advancing northward.
531 PM CDT Mon Oct 28 2019 We have made some adjustments to the grids to add mention of freezing drizzle or light freezing rain for periods when it appears temperatures will be cold enough long enough to sustain such precip.
A band of light showers continues within a zone of isentropic ascent just north and west of the surface cold front.
High pressure will keep the warning area dry through the week.
1023 PM EDT Mon Oct 28 2019 High pressure will move off the New England coast later today.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 51 74 62 72 / 0 10 40 70 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 50 74 57 71 / 0 10 20 60 Oak Ridge, TN 51 74 58 71 / 0 0 20 60 Tri Cities Airport, TN 47 73 53 71 / 0 0 10 40.
Meanwhile deep layered ridging is stacked above this surface feature. This evenings sounding indicated significant dry air above the lower levels, and some drier layers through the lower. Temperatures have settled into the lower to mid 80s with dew points in the upper 70s. Short Term Update - Ridging will continue to dominate Keys weather setup through the overnight period. Ridging off to our north and northeast will maintain gentle to moderate mainly easterly breezes on Keys waters through the overnight.
An approaching cold front will bring another round of gusty southwest winds on Tuesday.
There is a possibility of IFR ceilings and drizzle and/or freezing drizzle at KLBB and KPVW. /issued 531 PM CDT Mon Oct 28 2019/ We have made some adjustments to the grids to add mention of freezing drizzle or light freezing rain for periods when it appears temperatures will be cold enough long enough to sustain such precip.
641 PM EDT Mon Oct 28 2019 A cold front will bring cooler temperatures and low chances for rain into northwest Indiana and southwest Michigan tonight into Tuesday morning, and into northeast Indiana and northwest Ohio Tuesday afternoon.
Min temps will remain much above normal in the low to mid 70s.
720 PM EDT Mon Oct 28 2019 High pressure will move off the New England coast later today.
904 PM EDT Mon Oct 28 2019 High pressure will move off the New England coast later today.
Expect clouds to fill back in overnight as upper trough drops through the areas. Cold air over warmer Fort Peck Lake water has allowed a band of lake effect snow to develop off the Dry Arm of the lake, will mention scattered snow showers there overnight. Forrester Previous Forecast Discussion: Scattered snow showers have diminished over northeast Montana ahead of the cold front from Canada. For the rest of today and overnight, temperatures will continue to drop as an upper level trough proceeds eastward.
A strong upper level ridge over the eastern Pacific will be present through this week.
131 AM EDT Tue Oct 29 2019 High pressure east of the region will continue to extend across the area into Tuesday. A cold front will track into the area Tuesday night and stall.
1026 PM PDT Mon Oct 28 2019 In the wake of a strong arctic cold front, expect blustery north winds and falling temperatures overnight.
136 AM MDT Tue Oct 29 2019 Upper trough continues to dig into the central CONUS, with a 130 kt jet rounding its base. Cold front has passed through the CWA, and the band of snow continues to dissipate with weakening frontogenesis. Upper flow will split today/tonight as a closed low develops over UT/CO. Cold high pressure will settle into the northern plains, and conditions will dry out for a couple days. The upper trough will gradually make its way out of the region midweek, and northwest flow will set up as high pressure builds over the west coast.
Should see some clearing today as high pressure builds in from the Plains. High pressure remains in control through tonight but then southwest flow aloft/digging mid-level trough over the High Plains spreads in/thickens cloud cover into our area. Overnight lows look to be in the lower/middle 20s.
1207 AM CDT Tue Oct 29 2019 With the warm front over the northern Gulf, southerly winds will push the marine layer north and produce cloudiness from south to north to lower from VFR to MVFR overnight and possibly lifting to low end VFR with light rain and showers after sunrise Tuesday and bouncing at times between MVFR and VFR ceilings inland but remain steady IFR ceilings for coastal sites Tuesday into Tuesday night.
1102 PM EDT Mon Oct 28 2019 High pressure will move off the New England coast later today.
An approaching cold front will bring more gusty southwest winds on Tuesday.
356 AM EDT Tue Oct 29 2019 The morning surface analysis reveals high pressure off to the south and quasi-stationary boundary sprawled from the Great Lakes into East Texas this morning. Outside of this, we will see a increase in mid and upper level clouds as well under broad southwest flow aloft, as we remain stuck in between the ridge east and broad trough to our west. Tonight we will see increasing clouds under continued broad southwest flow ahead of approaching boundary and trough axis.
342 AM CDT Tue Oct 29 2019 An upper trough is over the western and central portions of the country. A cold front is moving into West Texas and southeast New Mexico. High temperatures today will generally range from the lower to mid 40s across the Western Low Rolling Plains to the 80s along the Rio Grande.
237 AM EDT Tue Oct 29 2019 Moisture associated with the front that stalled near the coast will be directed back inland as high pressure to the north shifts farther east. Moisture will become deep ahead of upper troughing.
236 AM EDT Tue Oct 29 2019 A cold front will bring cooler temperatures and low chances for rain into northwest Indiana and southwest Michigan tonight into Tuesday morning, and into northeast Indiana and northwest Ohio Tuesday afternoon.
A positively tilted upper level trough of low pressure will drop into the Central Rockies today into tonight enhancing lift across the Central High Plains. Snow showers are expected across west central Kansas with a wintry mix of rain, snow, and freezing rain elsewhere.
Cold front looks like it'll make it into western parts of the CWA overnight. /ISSUED 850 PM CDT Mon Oct 28 2019/ Warm air advection producing a (becoming mostly) cloudy evening and this will lead to a more humid, wet and warmer Tuesday. As the upper trough that has placed a frigid hold on the northern Rockies/Great Basin begins its eastward journey into the Plains tomorrow, Texas will fall under a more established mid-upper southwesterly flow pattern. upper trough will be the impetus that pushes a weak surface boundary into Central Texas during the day tomorrow.
838 PM PDT Mon Oct 28 2019 In the wake of a strong arctic cold front, expect blustery north winds and falling temperatures overnight.
218 AM CDT Tue Oct 29 2019 Canadian high pressure will build over the region from the northwest over the next couple of days. The high will keep the area mostly dry if a bit breezy this morning.
This combined with a slow moving mid-level trough should produce some light snow across northwest North Dakota. High temperatures will be cold in the wake of the cold front, with highs in the 20s to low 30s.
South of the front, temperatures were in the low to mid 60s under mostly cloudy skies. Our confidence has increased that drizzle will end before temperatures fall to around the freezing mark later tonight across western Missouri and southeastern Kansas. Lows tonight should range from the lower 30s around Fort Scott and Nevada to the upper 40s in Oregon County.
The frontal boundary that was draped across the Big Bend region is making a retreat to the north as a warm front. With high pressure dominating the region, the primary ascent mechanism will continue to be the seabreeze.
251 AM EDT Tue Oct 29 2019 Moisture associated with the front that stalled near the coast will be directed back inland as high pressure to the north shifts farther east. Moisture will become deep ahead of upper troughing.
150 AM EDT Tue Oct 29 2019 Moisture associated with the front that stalled near the coast will be directed back inland as high pressure to the north shifts farther east. Moisture will become deep ahead of upper troughing.
200 AM EDT Tue Oct 29 2019 Moisture associated with the front that stalled near the coast will be directed back inland as high pressure to the north shifts farther east. Moisture will become deep ahead of upper troughing.
354 AM CDT Tue Oct 29 2019 The deep 500mb trough currently extends from central Canada down into the southwest United States. Models show these lower clouds hanging around today along and north of the highway 2 corridor, where scattered flurries are possible.
Moisture advection will begin later tonight, but really cranks up toward sunrise as upper Pacific trough drops into the plains and goes through some strengthening. We may see a few pre-dawn showers, especially west, but pcpn is likely to become quite widespread early Wed with upper trough on the move and our LL inverted trough becoming more defined. Overnight however, redevelopment is expected and widespread pcpn is expected to last through most of Thu as upper lows advance toward the great lakes and our cold front sweeps through. A reinforcing cold front does pass on Sat but our airmass is very dry. Bigger news is this will be the coldest air of the season, with freezing morning low temps most locations Fri-Mon.
647 AM CDT Tue Oct 29 2019 Seeing some streamers coming off Devils Lake mixing with the lower clouds sinking southeast out of north central North Dakota. The deep 500mb trough currently extends from central Canada down into the southwest United States. Models show these lower clouds hanging around today along and north of the highway 2 corridor, where scattered flurries are possible.
Gusty east-northeast winds are forecast to develop across exposed ridges this morning through Wednesday. Little change has occurred during the last 24 hours in the large-scale upper air pattern, with an amplified upper ridge still positioned over the NE Pacific and Gulf of Alaska, and a large downstream trough residing across the WRN and CNTRL CONUS. E-NE ridgetop winds gusting from 30 to 50 mph will subsequently develop across exposed ridges resulting in another round of critical fire weather conditions (see the fire weather discussion below for more information). After Wednesday, the surface pressure gradient is forecast to relax leading to diminishing ridgetop wind speeds. Nevertheless, the upper ridge over the NE Pacific will persist, which will favor near zero rain chances through the next seven days.
With strong 1040 millibar arctic high pressure in place today, temperatures will struggle to warm.
At 4 AM, a longwave trough remained in place over the Rockies, allowing clouds to stream north over the Plain.
A positively tilted upper level trough of low pressure will drop into the Central Rockies today into tonight enhancing lift across the Central High Plains. Snow showers are expected across west central Kansas with a wintry mix of rain, snow, and freezing rain elsewhere. Precipitation chances remain high Wednesday with the northern half of the CWA receiving snow and the southern half of the CWA receiving a wintry mix of snow, rain, and freezing rain.
1034 AM EDT Tue Oct 29 2019 Moisture associated with the front that stalled near the coast will be directed back inland as high pressure to the north shifts farther east. Moisture will become deep ahead of upper troughing.
/issued 342 AM CDT Tue Oct 29 2019/ An upper trough is over the western and central portions of the country. A cold front is moving into West Texas and southeast New Mexico. High temperatures today will generally range from the lower to mid 40s across the Western Low Rolling Plains to the 80s along the Rio Grande. The upper trough will become centered over the central portion of the country on Wednesday. The cold front gets a reinforcing push early on Wednesday resulting in high temperatures in the mid 40s across much of the Permian Basin and southeast New Mexico. There is a chance of light rain and drizzle developing late tonight/early Wednesday morning with a few areas of possible freezing drizzle across northern Lea County and the far northern Permian Basin.
We will see the start of a dry and calm trend ahead as an upper level ridge establishes in the Northwest.
343 AM MDT Tue Oct 29 2019 Another cold front rotating through eastern Montana this morning. Upper ridge folds over into western Canada for warming temperatures on Wednesday.
A weak cold front will slowly push through the region today.
Early this morning the upper trough was moving south across Idaho and Montana. Temperatures ranged from the 20s in north central Kansas to the lower 30s in far northeast and east central Kansas. Model solutions are trending more toward a consensus with the majority bringing the trough through as an open wave while only the operational GFS keeps a closed circulation. The approach of the positive tilt trough will being a couple of areas of precipitation to the area through Wednesday evening. That said higher moisture will be further southeast across east central Kansas where loss of cloud ice will result in periods of freezing rain or freezing drizzle. Drier air will work in aloft with the approach of the upper trough and could vary due to the exact location of the dry slot across northeast Kansas.
The low will start to track northeastward toward Mississippi, while the front lifts north as a warm front Wednesday morning.
652 AM EDT Tue Oct 29 2019 Moisture associated with the front that stalled near the coast will be directed back inland as high pressure to the north shifts farther east. Moisture will become deep ahead of upper troughing.
Upper level trough that pushed the cold front across the region last night will move into the central Rockies today and tonight.
A low pressure trough continues to swing through the western US as the low pressure center drops into the Great Basin region. This system has brought cooler conditions to our area and that trend continues today with temperatures running around 3-6 degrees below climo. The cold airmass settling in with the low pressure system will also bring freezing conditions to our desert zones.
This combined with the influence of ridge aloft should keep overall coverage of showers and storms limited. Temperatures will remain much warmer than normal with highs reaching the mid to upper 80s along the coast to upper 80s/low 90s across the interior. Humid conditions will make it feel even warmer with heat index values reaching as high as the upper 90s to around 100 degrees.
A cold front was along a line from just east of KSTL to just west of KUNO.
Early this morning the surface cold front was positioned just east southeast of Southeast Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas. surface freezing temperatures had pushed into Western Osage and Western Pawnee counties. the surface boundary should get a push southeastward from the approaching low pressure system out west. much of the rain showers should be exiting the CWA as the mid level trof axis pushes through the region. Majority of the precip should also be exiting ahead of colder air filtering in on the backside of the low.
Strengthening warm air and moisture advection associated with feature will occur yielding warmer temperatures and aforementioned increase in convection.
720 AM EDT Tue Oct 29 2019 Dry and warm conditions will linger until the approach of low pressure on Wednesday. A side effect of this will be slightly cooler high temperature than originally forecasted as the region will rely even more on the intruding warm air. East Coast ridging will maintain dry weather for today with mixing and degrading insolation supporting highs about 10 degrees above the averages. Model depictions of the high amplitude wrn CONUS trough differ with GFS and ECMWF generally agreeing on development of a cutoff/split flow pattern with the deepening southern low center emerging toward the Great Lakes during the latter half of the week. Warm, moist advection in the southwest flow of the overall trough in conjunction with an encroaching frontal zone will result in escalating rain chances for the Upper Ohio beginning later Wednesday.
The upper level trough currently over the western states moves across the Plains Wednesday and Wednesday night to force a colder frontal surge across our area Wednesday afternoon into evening. The showers and thunderstorms will end from west to east Wednesday night with the trough passage.
614 AM CDT Tue Oct 29 2019 At 4 AM, a longwave trough remained in place over the Rockies, allowing clouds to stream north over the Plains.
1013 AM EDT Tue Oct 29 2019 Dry and warm conditions will linger until the approach of low pressure on Wednesday. Model depictions of the high amplitude wrn CONUS trough differ with GFS and ECMWF, generally agreeing on development of a cutoff/split flow pattern with the deepening southern low center ejecting toward the Great Lakes during the latter half of the week. Warm, moist advection in the SWly flow of the overall trough in conjunction with an encroaching frontal zone will result in escalating rain chances for the Upper Ohio beginning later Wednesday.
The deep 500mb trough currently extends from central Canada down into the southwest United States. Models show these lower clouds hanging around today along and north of the highway 2 corridor, where scattered flurries are possible.
Some areas of patchy, light freezing drizzle will be possible in the northern South Plains and extreme southern Texas Panhandle through late morning Tuesday due to some weak isentropic ascent and sub-freezing surface temperatures. Clouds will keep temperatures quite chilly across the area on Tuesday, with highs only reaching the lower 40s. Surface winds will remain out of the east, before shifting to the north- northeast late Tuesday night as a strong ~1040mb anticyclone forms in the Intermountain West. The northerly winds will cause temperatures to drop quickly Tuesday night into early Wednesday, favoring the potential for freezing rain/drizzle across the central and northern parts of the CWA.
High pressure from the Atlantic extending southwest across the peninsula and into the eastern Gulf remains in control this morning with light east-southeast winds and mild and muggy conditions being observed across the forecast area under partly cloudy skies. High pressure from the Atlantic extending southwest across the peninsula and into the eastern Gulf will maintain an east southeast wind flow and slight seas over the Gulf waters the remainder of today with a weak onshore sea breeze component developing along the coast during the afternoon.