Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Surface and upper level lows will move through the area this afternoon and tonight, bringing rain and some snow to the area into early Wednesday. Another low pressure system will bring more precipitation to the area this weekend. Clouds will increase from the northwest during the daylight hours as a surface and upper low approach the area. As the upper low approaches and cooler temperatures move in aloft, expect some scattered showers to develop during the afternoon, especially north and west closer to the upper system.
WARMER & BREEZY TODAY. Until then, warmer and breezy SSW winds will continue with gusts of 20-25 mph at times.
An area of low pressure west of the Great Lakes this morning will shift to the southeast this evening and reach the northeast U. Another area of low pressure over Georgia will swing to the northeast tonight and a cold front will push to the southeast over the Florida peninsula.
1038 AM MST Tue Mar 6 2018 18Z TAF CYCLE With a ridge of high pressure approaching from the west, VFR conditions are expcected the next 24 hours.
A second surge of high pressure is expected to move through the region late tonight which should further reinforce the cooler and drier air. Temperatures for tonight are expected to range in the low to mid 50s along the coast and along the Rio Grande, while farther inland temps are to range in the 40s. Temperatures are expected to drop in to the 40s once again, with lows in the lower 50s along the coast and Rio Grande. However, a surge of high pressure will restrengthen northerly winds and lead to building seas once again later tonight.
Periods of light snow can be expected today as low pressure moves east across Iowa this morning making it into central Illinois by this afternoon. A trough swings through the region on Wednesday and may bring a few flurries to western and central Wisconsin.
342 PM CST Tue Mar 6 2018 Cold front has moved well into the Gulf of Mexico and cooler/drier air continues to move into the area.
High pressure aloft will provide the area with dry weather through Wednesday.
As is the case in most of the area, with temperatures around freezing, accumulations will be rather low, even in the otherwise moderate to even heavy snow bands. Onshore flow north of Milwaukee is keeping waves on the higher side this morning and afternoon.
Mostly clear skies and light winds will prevail today as high pressure aloft builds in from the west. Temperatures will be slightly warmer today - still a few degrees below normal. Otherwise, dry and clear conditions today under an upper level ridge. Warm and Dry conditions expected today as the upper level ridge develops over the region. Clouds will increase from the southwest later this afternoon and evening in response to the next upper level trough approaching the California Coast.
Early Wednesday morning could have some light rain to snow transition in the far NE mtns centered around 09z given consensus in supportive progged thermal profiles with decent subfreezing saturation below 700 mb as the wrap-around trough moisture flirts with the northern extent of the CWA. Cannot rule out a light dusting especially for the higher elevations with fcst sfc temps getting down to the mid to upper 20s. Meanwhile a strong closed low pressure system will move from west of the MS River to the Appalachians.
The blocking will gradually ease across central and western portions of the continent, though it is likely to persist in the east throughout the forecast period. The primary weather maker will be a mature cyclone tracking to our south today and tonight. But as the upper low edges closer by mid-late morning, temperatures aloft should cool enough to guarantee ice crystals are present and result in all snow.
220 PM CST Tue Mar 6 2018 Visible satellite imagery has a great depiction of the closed low to our NW and the frontal boundary that moved through last night. The low will push a cold front through the area tonight. These winds and increasing low/mid level clouds will prevent temps from falling much below the low to mid 30s tonight. Some of the breezier spots may be the higher terrain in southern middle TN and NE AL where a few gusts of 30-35 mph are possible. Cloudy and cool start Wednesday as the core of the upper level low will be just to our NE. The closed low phases with another system dropping south out of Hudson Bay, which will end up keeping the closed low over situated over the eastern Great Lakes region.
241 PM MST Tue Mar 6 2018 A ridge of high pressure to the west will remain in control of our weather through much of this week with dry conditions and temperatures warming back up to near or slightly above normal by Wednesday afternoon.
Back edge of the cloud shield now is just west of the I-65 corridor and continues pushing eastward, as a large upper level low continues spinning over northwest Iowa. Cloud cover will move in from the northwest late in the afternoon though, as the upper low moves to central Illinois. Road temperatures are forecast to stay above freezing, but any heavier showers could briefly make for a few slick spots. Upper low mentioned above actually is part of a large gyre swirling around the Great Lakes.
A gradual shift in the pattern will occur during the period as the low level ridge axis across the central peninsula today drifts into south Florida on Friday. The easterly flow south of the ridge axis will get convection going early in the afternoon from Highlands to Lee counties, with storms spreading/developing to the north and northwest toward Tampa Bay/Polk County during the mid to late afternoon. Across the Nature Coast the low level flow will be more out of the south to southwest which will help focus the convection inland from the coast, but the flow will be fairly light so cannot rule out a few showers and storms popping up on outflow boundaries that move back toward the coast.
251 AM EDT Thu Jun 15 2017 High pressure will build off the New England coast today as a weak warm front approaches from the west.
323 AM EDT Thu Jun 15 2017 Models are in fairly good agreement for at least the next several days, with a weak 500mb trough over the Florida Peninsula, and a Bermuda high at the surface. They also show are series of very weak 500mb short waves moving through the trough.
252 AM MDT Thu Jun 15 2017 Current surface analysis shows low pressure over southern Manitoba, with high pressure over the northern Rockies. Upper level analysis shows low also over southern Manitoba, with weak ridging over the intermountain west.
More storms are possible later today, especially this afternoon as a weak cold front moves through. Focus then shifts to development this afternoon along weak cold front which will slide across the area. Deep layer shear again on the low side with only 20-25 knots but mid level dry pocket and decent mid level lapse rates around 6. Drier air works in tonight in wake of cold front with lows in the lower to middle 60s.
1117 PM MDT Wed Jun 14 2017 Latest upper air analysis shows the closed low along the US/Canadian border. South of the low westerly flow was moving over the Plains. At the surface a high pressure was moving across Western Kansas. Meanwhile shortly after noon an upper level short wave trough will deepen just east of Norton and Graham counties near the dry line. Due to the high CAPE values becoming available quite early in the afternoon as the upper level short wave trough deepens overhead, severe thunderstorms could start earlier than is typical.
1126 PM MDT Wed Jun 14 2017 06Z TAF CYCLE Relatively light westerly flow aloft with upper high center over Old Mexico. Weak sfc lee trof. Temperatures will warm a degree or two each day over NM as high pressure continues to build into New Mexico.
So, the main issue is wind, and even that holds firm with the standard modified "Valley wind machine" created by heat low/trough across west Texas and broad high pressure centered over the eastern Gulf.
Once again KTRI/KTYS will have the highest chances of seeing TSRA at the airports.
/19/ Tonight and Thursday: Changes are on the way overnight as the mid-level ridge begins to break down overnight into Thursday. Hot and humid conditions will continue on Thursday as the mid level ridge gives way to troughing and northwest flow.
442 AM MDT Thu Jun 15 2017 Current surface analysis shows low pressure over southern Manitoba, with high pressure over the northern Rockies. Upper level analysis shows low also over southern Manitoba, with weak ridging over the intermountain west.
The trend for Friday continues drier, despite a trough moving across the region. Precipitable waters drop to the the low 1-inch range, but with some better moisture trying to pull in from the west, but a little behind the better forcing.
Temperatures will recover on Friday into the 90s but likely be a bit cooler than today.
All of this courtesy of the 500 mb "La Canicula" ridge parked over Chihuahua State (Mexico) today and edging just a hair west on Friday, with center moving slightly west toward Sonora. Suppression of moisture ensures little in the way of clouds, save from some thin cirrus spilling over the ridge from any leftover evening convection across north Texas/Panhandle.
228 AM EDT Thu Jun 15 2017 A front stalled over southwestern PA will begin to lift back to the northeast as a warm front on Thursday and Friday. It will be another mild night with lows averaging 5-10 deg warmer than normal.
609 AM EDT Thu Jun 15 2017 High pressure will remain across the region today then move east of the region tonight. High pressure over the region and subsidence resulting from a ridge to our west and a trough to our northeast will bring a sunny and dry day today. Most lkly areas to see 60F exist acrs the east where showers wl not be able to mv in until mid-late morning as upr lvl ridge wl be holding tight until appchg vort max begins to flatten it.
1107 PM MDT Wed Jun 14 2017 Water vapor imagery shows upper low continuing to drift over south central Canada north of North Dakota. Weak ridging on the backside of the upper low will keep dry weather across the CWA through Friday.
302 AM CDT Thu Jun 15 2017 Upper low is currently situated over southern Manitoba with zonal flow over the central Plains. This will push a cold front across the central Plains, moving through the forecast area Sat night. Well above normal temps are expected to remain in place through Sat, although overnight MCS activity may make the high temp forecast Fri tricky. With very rich low level moisture remaining in place, heat index values will likely be in the 100-105 degree range, with the highest values arriving Sat.
131 AM EDT Thu Jun 15 2017 Dry and seasonable as high pressure drifts east over the Atlantic south of Nova Scotia on Thursday.
506 AM EDT Thu Jun 15 2017 WV imagery and RAP analysis indicated a mid/upper level low over cntrl Manitoba resulting in cyclonic w to sw flow through the nrn plains and Upper MS valley into the nrn Great Lakes. Isolated showers and possibly a thunderstorm along a slow- moving cold front could move across the TAF sites into the early overnight hours. Some isolated showers are possible Thu afternoon along a trough, but again chances should be confined mainly east of the TAF sites. Winds will increase again this weekend as a low pressure system develops over the Upper Peninsula and Lake Superior.
The pres grad over the CWA was weak as the lee trof out to the W yesterday as migrated E. It should cont E and merge with the quasi-stationary remains of the frontal trof. The weak front has shunted the low- lvl moisture plume just E and S of the CWA. This low is fcst to drift to near DDC with modestly increasing S flow advecting the mstr plume back N across KS. The NSSL WRF shows it best with RI occurring within an inverted trof (probably the remnant front lifting back N). 5 C/kg will exist atop a BL characterized by temps in the mid 90s and dwpts in the low-mid 60s. given the high LCLs and lack of a cap. Light winds with low temps a little warmer than normal.
321 AM CDT Thu Jun 15 2017 Early morning satellite imagery illustrates a closed low over Manitoba, while analysis of the 15. Otherwise, mostly sunny skies will prevail today with gusty west winds and lower dewpoints in the wake of the trough. Given the amount of deep mixing and the westerly wind (favorable directional component for warming), along with the recent cool bias of numerical guidance, have leaned toward the warmer progs for highs today. Relatively zonal flow at the start of the period will give way to slightly amplified northwest flow for the second half of the period as modest ridging develops to our west.
The associated slow moving warm front will keep a good chance of showers going into Friday. The weekend looks warmer and muggy, with chances for mainly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. Tonight, clear-partly cloudy skies are foreseen, with very dry air in the lower levels of the atmosphere, and perhaps a bit of higher-level cloud debris later tonight. For Thursday, deeper moisture will slowly work its way eastward into CNY/NEPA, along and ahead of a slow moving, low-level warm front. A warm front will move slowly east through the area Thursday night to Friday night. Low temps warmer ranging from mid 50s in far east to around 60 elsewhere. Some drying on the backside will allow temperatures to rise to around 80 in the far west and northwest to the low 70s in the southeast.
305 AM EDT Thu Jun 15 2017 High pressure will remain across the region today then move east of the region tonight. High pressure over the region and subsidence resulting from a ridge to our west and a trough to our northeast will bring a sunny and dry day today. Most lkly areas to see 60F exist acrs the east where showers wl not be able to mv in until mid-late morning as upr lvl ridge wl be holding tight until appchg vort max begins to flatten it.
315 AM PDT Thu Jun 15 2017 Dry weather along with a warming trend will continue through the weekend as an upper level ridge of high pressure builds over California.
The subtropical ridge over the Mexican state of Chihuahua will intensify and expand a bit more today, so highs may be a degree or two warmer than yesterday in the mid to upper 90s with lower 100s in the Rio Grande Plains. Although the mid-to-upper level subtropical ridge will begin to move ever so slightly to the west on Friday, the ridge at lower and midlevels will still remain fairly intense to allow temperatures to warm up another degree or so relative to today.
644 AM EDT Thu Jun 15 2017 High pressure will build off the New England coast today as a weak warm front approaches from the west.
322 AM EDT Thu Jun 15 2017 A cold front will approach the region from the west Today and will push through the region tonight.
A deep layer ridge will remain southeast of the area while a mid/upper trough gradually digs south across Ga to the Gulf of Mexico. Storms will be initiated by the seabreeze fronts and enhanced by mid level level impulses rotating around the upper trough.
1258 AM CDT Thu Jun 15 2017 A surface warm front was found from Baudette southeast to Moose Lake, then east across northern Wisconsin from Solon Springs to Ironwood. Meanwhile, a cold front was on the western border of the forecast area at 20Z.
More storms are possible later today, especially this afternoon as a weak cold front moves through.
Currently, air temperatures in most Keys island communities are holding in the lower 80s, with dewpoint temperatures in the mid 70s. On the large scale, the Florida Keys lie in an area of weak flow and forcing between two subtropical anticyclones, one centered over northern Mexico, and the other over the western North Atlantic. At the surface, a high pressure ridge has shifted southward, as expected, and breezes definitely have slackened during the last 48 hours as a result. Forecasts (Today 6/15): Geopotential heights actually will drop a bit over the eastern Gulf of Mexico as cyclonic vorticity advects southeastward around the Mexican anticyclone. As a result, in the lower troposphere, a light southeast to south flow will veer south-southwest. This may favor development of cumulus cloud lines downwind of some of the lower Keys (waterspouts?) this afternoon.
High pressure will intensify across the southwest bringing much above normal temperatures to much of California, Nevada and Arizona by the end of the week.
327 AM CDT Thu Jun 15 2017 First up this morning will be most likely the last chance for thunderstorms for the forseeable future as subtropical high pressure repositions from northern Mexico today to AZ/NM this weekend.
352 AM CDT Thu Jun 15 2017 Slow moving low pressure to the north responsible for continued westerly low level flow and cooler temperatures aloft which will result in favorable mixing again today, with BUFKIT mixed winds on the order of 20G30kts. Similar conditions are also expected with low humidity and temperatures in the low/mid 80s. Tonight we will see some weak/mid level isentropic lift west river progressing east towards morning, but this will amount to little more than a mid level deck and the low level environment will support cool and dry overnight conditions.
Synoptic Setup: Hot high pressure sets over the Desert Southwest. On top of this a closed low sets over the northern British Columbia with weak ridge running north through the high plains of Montana and Alberta. Closed low has exited into Manitoba and should not have much influence over the area through the short term. Today through Friday: with weak ridge remaining in place and surface and 850 mb Temperatures stalling out in the mid teen Celsius, surface temperatures should remain the same in the mid to upper 70s. This will bring a cold front across Northeast Montana.
545 AM EDT Thu Jun 15 2017 Showers and thunderstorms are expected today and tonight with a trough of low pressure.
324 AM CDT Thu Jun 15 2017 Upper ridging is over the southcentral part of the country with westerly flow aloft. The dryline is expected to mix further east on Friday with this feature across the Lower Trans Pecos and eastern Permian Basin during the afternoon. Temperatures on Friday are expected to be 100+ degrees across all but the highest elevations in the CWA.
331 AM CDT Thu Jun 15 2017 An upper level low was over the Manitoba Lakes region early this morning and will move into northwest Ontario tonight, then continue slowly east Friday. However, this fog should quickly lift this morning as the low flow continues to turn southwest and increase. Winds will be gusty out of the west to southwest today and highs will range from the lower seventies to around eighty. Highs will again range from the lower seventies to around eighty.
306 AM EDT Thu Jun 15 2017 Showers and thunderstorms are expected today and tonight with a trough of low pressure.
Water vapor imagery indicates dry air moving southeast on the backside of an upper low. In the upper levels slight troughing will be over the Southeast. Lows will be in the lower 70s.
409 AM CDT Thu Jun 15 2017 With the late evening storms over eastern KS progressing into Missouri, cooler conditions were left in its wake with early morning temperatures in the mid 60s to low 70s with dewpoints dropping into the 50s and 60s across north central to far northeast KS. Models show the stationary boundary lifting northward toward the KS/NE border late morning into this afternoon, allowing the southerly winds and mostly sunny skies to boost afternoon high temperatures into the low/mid 90s with dewpoints rising back into the upper 60s to low 70s across much of the CWA.
Underneath, there are some spots here and there where some low stratus or patchy fog has developed, but otherwise the high clouds are all that is obscuring the sky. Through this morning, some expansion of the low clouds may be expected, but will mix out as the day continues thanks to drier air. Look for temps to again reach into the lower/mid 90s away from the coast, with heat indices around and above 100 degrees. As the upper ridge continues to dominate our area, look for limited (at best) rain potential.
The highest chances will come each night from tonight through Friday night.
temperatures have climbed into the mid to upper 80s across much of the lower elevations this afternoon with a couple of more degrees of warming expected. Mozley Upper ridge remains in place Fri, with hot and dry conditions continuing. Ridge is then flattened somewhat on Sat as upper trough races from the nrn Rockies into the high plains before deepening over the Great Lakes Sat night into Sun. Max temps Sun will fall substantially over the eastern mountains and plains, with readings 10-15f cooler than Sat, while more modest cooling of 4-8f looks likely over interior valleys and the mountains along the Continental Divide. Ridge rebuilds Mon-Tue and hot weather returns, though mountains may have just enough moisture for some high-based weak convection both days.
319 AM CDT Thu Jun 15 2017 Quiet weather and a cooler and drier night are making for some short- lived windows-open weather. Those storms will move out of the area by around midnight or so, but some models hint at a secondary area of development in northeast NE to northwest IA later in the night on the nose of the low-level jet. Surface winds are progged to be on the weak side, and T-Td spreads may be on the high side, especially if Thursday night storms scour out moisture.
Current water vapor imagery and RAP upper air analysis indicates a closed low across the Northeastern U. For today, upper level heights will increase as an upper level ridge pushes in from the west. Additionally, there will be a lack of forcing aloft with the upper level ridge beginning to move in across the region.
Temps are in the lower 70s. Additional low level forcing will be from the weak trough over GA/NRN FL and sea breeze boundaries. weak mid level ridge builds in a bit but still enough support aloft and rich moisture to carry chances of showers and storms in the evening. Lows mainly in the lower 70s again.
Quite a complicated forecast over the next few days as a slow moving upper trough and numerous outflow boundaries affect the region. The upper trough to our west will only slowly move east over the coming days. This trough will linger over Texas into the weekend with continued shower and storm chances over our region.
This is helping to bring a moist east to southeast low level flow into the forecast area, with dew points in the lower 70s. Upper air analysis shows an upper level ridge centered over the northwest Caribbean, with ridging into the southeast Gulf of Mexico. Meanwhile, a large upper level low is noted north of New England over Quebec. Also, deepest tropical moisture with PWAT values well over 2 inches, will stay closer to the periphery of the upper level ridge, and from the southern Gulf of Mexico toward the central Gulf coast and Florida.
539 AM EDT Fri Jun 2 2017 Moisture ahead of a weak trough will remain mainly south and east of the forecast area through Saturday.
600 AM EDT Fri Jun 2 2017 High pressure today for bright and sunny skies. A warm front crosses Saturday.
Stationary front remains draped across the Volunteer State, with a weak bubble of high pressure parked over the Ohio Valley. The high will be enough to maintain dry weather through Saturday. Temps will average near climo, with days a little warmer and nights a little cooler due to low dewpoints. Went a little below guidance with today's highs given light NE flow, and low-level thickness only supportive of 1-2 degrees warmer than Thu.
SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday): Little to no precipitation is forecast during the period with Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley remaining on the northern periphery of 500 mb high pressure that will build over central Mexico.
Upper trof over the Rockies will lift northeast toward southern Canada on Friday and Friday night. That said the models do maintain that the highest instability/LLM will reside over the eastern CWA, but somewhat displaced from any forcing or shear. Saturday will be cooler, but still well above normal with highs well into the 80s.
549 AM EDT Fri Jun 2 2017 Moisture ahead of a weak trough will remain mainly south and east of the forecast area through Saturday.