Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
306 PM CDT FRI OCT 2 2015 CURRENT 20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS WHAT IS LEFT OF THE COLD FRONT, NOW MOSTLY A PRESSURE TROUGH, HUGGING THE COAST WHILE A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS BACK ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY INTO EXTREME WESTERN TEXAS. OTHERWISE, QUIET AND TRANQUIL CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE PRESSING IN FROM THE NORTH- NORTHWEST. A FEW MORE CLOUDS ACROSS THE WEST WITH SOME UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING IN FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO TOP OUT A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN ON FRIDAY.
325 PM EDT FRI OCT 2 2015 DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHEAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. GENERALLY HOLDING IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S UNDER EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUDS.
WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE A BIT WARMER THAN THEY WERE LAST NIGHT. MOST TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S.
245 PM MDT FRI OCT 2 2015 LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY FOR THIS AFTERNOON SHOWING LOW PRESSURE THAT WAS OVER NORTHWESTERN UTAH MOVING INTO SOUTHWESTERN WYOMING THIS AFTERNOON. MOSAIC RADAR SHOWING QUITE A BIT OF ACTIVITY AHEAD OF THIS LOW ALONG THE I-80 CORRIDOR FROM ROCK SPRINGS BACK TO EVANSTON.
NORTHERLY WINDS AND DRY AIR IN THE LOW- LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION. WHILE MID AND UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.
LITTLE CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND WINDS LOOK TO DIMINISH BY SUNSET TO 4-7 KNOTS BUT LOOK TO REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO HOLD OFF A SIGNIFICANT RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT TONIGHT AND TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING. LOW TO MIDDLE MOISTURE INCREASES OVER SOUTHEAST IOWA IN RESPONSE TO LARGE UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE COUNTRY PULLING IN ATLANTIC MOISTURE.
HAVE ALSO UPDATED THE WIND FORECAST DUE TO THE DENVER CYCLONE THAT CONTINUES TO SPIN SOUTHEAST OF THE AIRPORT AS WELL AS TO ADD A HINT OF NORTHERLY WINDS TO PUSH DOWN THE PLAINS IN ADVANCE OF THE MAIN COLD FRONT TOMORROW MORNING. THERE IS DECENT CYCLONE IN NORTHCENTRAL DOUGLAS COUNTY RIGHT NOW. UPSTREAM RADARS ARE SHOWING SOME CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH THAT THE MODELS ADVERTISE FOR OUR CWA OVERNIGHT. THERE IS A WEAK UPPER TROUGH TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN CWA BY 12Z FRIDAY MORNING. IT WILL BE TROUGH THE CWA BY NOON FRIDAY. THEN DECENT SUBSIDENT DRYING AFTER THE TROUGH AXIS GOES THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. WITH SOME SNOW AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. FRIDAY'S HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE 1-4 C COOLER THAN TODAY'S. UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN TEXAS FRIDAY NIGHT.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TAF SITES FRIDAY WITH NORTH WINDS IN ITS WAKE. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TAF SITES FRIDAY WITH NORTH WINDS BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY.
NO CHANGES AT UPDATE TIME AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RULE OVER MIDDLE TENNESSEE.
740 PM EDT THU SEP 17 2015 MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS THE EASTERN U. WITH A TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS.
PREVIOUS,,, MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS THE EASTERN U. WITH A TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS.
SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED FROM INLAND SC TO THE E CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO WITH THE STRONGEST UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE LOCATED MORE THAN 90 MILES OFF OF OUR COAST. MODERATE TO STRONG LOW LEVEL DIRECTIONAL/SPEED CONVERGENCE IS OFF THE SE GA COAST AND THIS IS GENERALLY WHERE WE EXPECT THE HIGHER AND MORE PERSISTENT SHOWER AND ISOLD TSTMS ACTIVITY THROUGH EARLY FRI MORNING.
844 PM EDT THU SEP 17 2015 RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE AS A COLD FRONT MOVES OUT OF THE MIDWEST THIS WEEKEND. EVEN AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH STARTS TO MOVE EAST OF THE APPALACHIAN FRONT. WHILE THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A GRADIENT FLOW FROM THE SOUTHWEST IN THE LOW LEVELS. IT SEEMS UNLIKELY THAT LOWS WILL BREACH 50F ON AN ORGANIZED BASIS MUCH OF ANYWHERE EXCEPT IN THE LOWEST VALLEYS AMONGST THE RIDGES. THERMAL BELTS WILL LIKELY BE PRONOUNCED IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. YIELDING INVERTED TEMPERATURE GRIDS OVER THE RIDGES.
724 PM EDT THU SEP 17 2015 HIGH PRESSURE HANGS ON THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE EXITING.
624 PM CDT THU SEP 17 2015 A COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH THE AREA. WITH TEMPERATURES ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY. WITH FAIRLY DRY AIR TO START IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS IN COMBINATION WITH A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL KEEP HIGHS FRIDAY COOL. BUT A BIT MORE SUNSHINE ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA WILL HELP HIGHS CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 70S.
1131 PM CDT THU SEP 17 2015 COLD FRONT IS PROGRESSING THROUGH THE MID-MISSOURI VALLEY REGION TODAY. WITH TROUGH AXIS FROM OR THROUGH NV/CA. AND WITH NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH NEAR THE AB/SASK BORDER TO MT. 850MB COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM THE ONT/MB BORDER THROUGH THE ND/MN AND SD/MN BORDER. AT THE NOSE OF THE 700MB THERMAL RIDGE. UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ADVANCES THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND TOWARD THE PLAINS. MOST OF THE CWA WILL BE WELL NORTH OF THE LOW.
1126 PM CDT THU SEP 17 2015 A COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH THE AREA. WITH TEMPERATURES ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY. WITH FAIRLY DRY AIR TO START IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS IN COMBINATION WITH A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL KEEP HIGHS FRIDAY COOL. BUT A BIT MORE SUNSHINE ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA WILL HELP HIGHS CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 70S.
AN UPPER HIGH CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL BUILD EAST OVER THE LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY BEFORE RUNNING UP AGAINST A DEVELOPING UPPER LOW OVER NE FL. THE DEVELOPING UPPER LOW OVER FL STARTS TO FORM A SURFACE CIRCULATION OVER THE FL PENINSULA. WITH SOME INLAND AREAS DROPPING INTO THE LOW 60S. TEMPS A BIT WARMER THAN TODAY ARE EXPECTED WITH THE UPPER RIDGE BEING MORE OF AN INFLUENCE.
858 PM CDT THU SEP 17 2015 THE HIGH POPS FORECAST FOR RAIN STILL LOOKS GOOD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
/ISSUED 339 PM CDT THU SEP 17 2015/ THIS MORNING FOG AND LOW CLOUDS STUCK AROUND A LITTLE LONGER THAN EXPECTED BUT THE LOW CLOUDS MIXED OUT AND TEMPERATURES REBOUNDED THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND EVEN HITTING 90S IN A FEW PLACES. EXPECT A WARMING TREND GOING INTO THE WEEKEND AS TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S AS HIGH PRESSURE WORKS INTO THE AREA. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA EARLY IN THE WEEK.
LOWERED LOWS A TAD TO THE 35-37 RANGE AS CURRENT TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 40S THERE AND WINDS LIGHT.
Cold front will move into NE OK early Friday evening with showers and thunderstorms likely impacting the BVO/TUL/RVS areas. Cold front will likely move into NE OK Friday evening, currently just out side the TAF forecast period. COULD SEE A FEW ELEVATED SHOWERS FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA DUE TO WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AND THE LOW LEVEL JET.
ALSO WENT A TAD COOLER FOR MOST LOCATIONS AS WE SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES FAIRLY CLOSE TO LAST NIGHTS READINGS SINCE DEWPOINTS ARE RUNNING NEAR WHERE THEY WERE YESTERDAY EVENING.
The low clouds will burn off by late Friday morning and return to VFR across the area. The low clouds will burn off by late Friday morning and return to VFR across the area. /ISSUED 340 PM CDT THU SEP 17 2015/ (Tonight and Friday) A near persistence forecast continues tonight and Friday, under an upper ridge.
DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. FRIDAY WILL BE VERY MUCH LIKE TODAY WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOW 90S AND LOWS IN THE 60S.
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE REMAINS IN CONTROL OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES TODAY. WITH ONLY FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS ABOUT AND LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS AROUND THE BASE OF THE RIDGE. WILL CONTINUE TO SEE THE AIR MASS MODERATE WITH SLOWLY WARMING TEMPERATURES AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS/WEAKENS OVER ALABAMA AND ANOTHER SURFACE FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST.
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 60 86 62 88 / 0 0 0 0 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 58 84 60 86 / 0 0 0 10 OAK RIDGE, TN 57 85 61 86 / 0 0 0 10 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 49 84 52 83 / 0 0 0 10.
943 PM EDT THU SEP 17 2015 A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE EAST THIS WEEKEND.
744 PM EDT THU SEP 17 2015 A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE EAST THIS WEEKEND.
/ISSUED 241 PM CDT THU SEP 17 2015/ UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY THEN RETROGRADES ALLOWING FOR WESTERLIES TO DOMINATE NORTH HALF OF U.
851 PM EDT THU SEP 17 2015 WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PERSISTS OFF THE WEST COAST OF THE STATE THIS EVENING. CLOUD COVER AND HIGH RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO KEEP TEMPS IN THE LOW/MID 80S ON FRIDAY.
PLAN ON VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS AND A FEW AFTERNOON CU ON FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE AREA WEATHER.
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL MOVE EAST OUT OF THE REGION BY EARLY FRIDAY. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS ACROSS WESTERN MONTANA THROUGH EXTREME NORTHERN UTAH WILL CONTINUE EAST OUT OF THE REGION BY EARLY FRIDAY. WEAK CONVECTION THAT FORMED AHEAD OF THE TROUGH ALONG THE MID-LEVEL THERMAL BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE OVER NORTHERN UTAH DURING THE NEXT 2 TO 3 HOURS. EXPECTING A FEW AREAS OF THE HIGHER NORTHERN VALLEYS TO SEE FROST WITH PATCHY FOG A GOOD POSSIBILITY. THE WEAK FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL MAINTAIN NORTHERLY WINDS AT THE TERMINAL UNTIL AT LEAST LATE TONIGHT. DRY/STABLE CONDITIONS TRAILING THE EXITING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS AT THE KSLC TERMINAL THROUGH FRIDAY.
THIS AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IS ASSOCIATED WITH A COMPLEX DEEP-LAYER CYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. AN ASYMMETRIC LOW PRESSURE AREA EXTENDS FROM NEAR THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TO NEAR CAPE CANAVERAL. SURFACE WINDS ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS ARE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT THE MOMENT AS THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE STILL IS WORKED OVER FROM WIDESPREAD RAIN AND CLOUDS.
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS ALONG A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. AS THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT STALLS OUT ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS.
/ISSUED 207 PM CDT THU SEP 17 2015/ TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER 90S ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS.
923 PM CDT THU SEP 17 2015 HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING DOWN FROM THE APPALACHIANS THIS EVENING WITH WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THE REGION. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND SUBSIDENCE IS HOLDING THE CU IN CHECK WITH ONLY A FEW LIGHT RETURNS SHOWING UP ON RADAR. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN OLD MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EASTWARD FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STILL LOOKS TO FLATTEN SOME.
1123 PM EDT THU SEP 17 2015 HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TAF SITES FRIDAY WITH NORTH WINDS BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY.
629 PM CDT THU SEP 17 2015 SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS A SLOWLY EAST-MOVING COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM NORTH CENTRAL MN THOUGH NORTHWEST IA. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WERE IN PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOWER 70S TO NEAR 80 DEGREES. WILL BE KEEPING AN EYE ON A VIGOROUS MID-LEVEL TROUGH SWINGING EAST OUT OF THE PLAINS TOWARD THE AREA. COOLER AIR WILL BE IN PLACE WITH HIGHS TOPPING OFF IN THE MIDDLE 60S TO THE MIDDLE 70S.
A DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW WILL FOLLOW THE DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH FOR A DRY CONDITIONS AND THE START OF A WARMING TREND THAT WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
The low clouds will burn off by late Friday morning and return to VFR across the area. /ISSUED 340 PM CDT THU SEP 17 2015/ (Tonight and Friday) A near persistence forecast continues tonight and Friday, under an upper ridge.
741 PM EDT THU SEP 17 2015 MOISTURE INCREASING IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES BACK INTO THE FORECAST LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
THE LOW CIGS/FOG SHOULD LIFT BACK INTO THE VFR CONDITIONS BY 18/15Z AND ANOTHER ROUND OF DAYTIME CU SHOULD DEVELOP.
TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON HAVE MANAGED TO CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 80S AGAIN IN A FEW SPOTS. WITH DEW PTS REMAINING IN THE LOWER 60S. AS A WEAK UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER THE SRN PLAINS TRANSLATES SLIGHTLY TO THE E. AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW. THE LATEST MODEL SUITES ARE HINTING AT A COLD FRONT OUT OF THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS STATES TRANSLATING EWD THROUGH THE WEEKEND PERIOD. AIDED AN EMBEDDED UPPER TROUGH AXIS DEVELOPING WITHIN A MORE BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH PATTERN. AS THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH PATTERN MAKES ITS WAY EWD INTO MUCH OF THE ERN CONUS. THE LATTER HALF OF THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH PERHAPS CLOSING OFF OVER THE SRN ATLANTIC BASIN HEADING INTO THE NEW WORK WEEK. DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION.
Cold front will likely move into NE OK Friday evening, currently just out side the TAF forecast period. COULD SEE A FEW ELEVATED SHOWERS FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA DUE TO WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AND THE LOW LEVEL JET.
523 PM MDT THU SEP 17 2015 JUST A FEW SHOWERS NOTED SO FAR OVER PARTS OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH A MINOR JET STREAK AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NW. THIS TROUGH WILL ACCELERATE EASTWARD OVERNIGHT AND PASS ACROSS THE CWA EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. 700MB TEMPS WITH THE UPPER TROUGH MAY EVEN ALLOW FOR A BIT OF SNOW OVER THE HIGHER MTNS. ACTIVITY WILL MOVE OUT OF THE CWA FRIDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS SWINGS INTO THE PLAINS THOUGH A BIT OF WRAP-AROUND RAIN A SMALL POSSIBILITY OVER NORTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS OVER THE PLAINS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS DECENT MID-LEVEL WINDS MIX DOWN.
The frontal boundary now moving into the northern CWA counties with a prefrontal trough Garden City/Dodge City and the Hays/Great Bend area will continue slowly southeast this evening. The result in a shorter period with much cooler mid 70s through Friday and the weekend as earlier forecasts.
AFTERNOON CROSSOVER TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE 50S AND 60S AREA WIDE AND THE LOW TEMPERATURES WILL APPROACH THOSE READINGS BY MORNING. THIS FOG SHOULD BE LIMITED TO AREAS NEAR WATER AND NEAR LOW LYING COOLER OR RURAL ZONES.
1055 PM CDT THU SEP 17 2015 LEADING EDGE OF THE COLD FRONT HAS ALMOST EXITED OUR FORECAST AREA ALREADY AS OF MID AFTERNOON. WITH THE LOW LEVEL WINDS OUT OF THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST CONTINUING ON FRIDAY. QUITE A PUNCH OF DRY AIR EXISTS IN THE LOW LEVELS TO OVER COME IN MANY OF OUR EASTERN ZONES THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. BUT AS THE LOW LEVEL FINALLY SATURATE UP. THIS IS NOT A HUGELY DYNAMICAL SYSTEM WITH THE LOW AND MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS RATHER DISJOINTED. VERY WEAK AND BROAD TROUGH FOLLOWING THE FRIDAY SYSTEM WILL DO LITTLE MORE THAN THROW A FEW HIGH CLOUDS INTO THE SKIES.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FRIDAY NIGHT. /ISSUED 232 PM CDT THU SEP 17 2015/ UPPER HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUED TO MAINTAIN VERY WARM. A COLD FRONT WAS WHERE A MORE ACTIVE NORTHERN JET STREAM AND LEAD UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WAS AIDING IN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. ASSISTING A COLD FRONT INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH TONIGHT CONTINUES TO BRING A FEW SPRINKLES THIS EVENING IN AND AROUND THE UMPQUA BASIN, INTO THE CASCADES NORTH OF MT MCLOUGHLIN, AND ACROSS NORTHERN KLAMATH AND LAKE COUNTIES. ON FRIDAY WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHERLY AS A THERMAL TROUGH BEGINS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST.
The 8 pm EDT regional surface analysis showed a broad area of low pressure in the eastern Gulf of Mexico and off the FL east coast. This system was interacting with an upper level trough to produce scattered showers and thunderstorms, though most of the rain remained east and south of our forecast area.
TS COVERAGE ALONG THIS TROUGH IS LOOKING MORE ISOLATED THAN ORIGINALLY EXPECTED. SO WILL OMIT ADDITIONAL TS MENTION EXCEPT AT CDS WHERE AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT RAISES CONFIDENCE IN AFTN- EVNG STORMS.
BROAD HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER RIDGING REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE LOCAL WEATHER OVERNIGHT. DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION.
/ISSUED 923 PM CDT THU SEP 17 2015/ HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING DOWN FROM THE APPALACHIANS THIS EVENING WITH WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THE REGION. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND SUBSIDENCE IS HOLDING THE CU IN CHECK WITH ONLY A FEW LIGHT RETURNS SHOWING UP ON RADAR. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN OLD MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EASTWARD FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STILL LOOKS TO FLATTEN SOME.
931 AM MST SUN MAR 13 2016 AFTER MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES.
THE DRIER BOUNDARY LAYER TNT WL PRECLUDE STRATUS/FOG DEVELOPMENT AND PROMOTE COOLER OVERNIGHT LOWS. WL LEAN TWDS THE COOLER GUIDANCE IN THIS RESPECT. TEMPS WL AVG AROUND 3-6 DEGS WARMER ON MONDAY THAN SUNDAY AS H8 TEMPS APPROACH 20 DEGS CELSIUS.
Then pops will spike again tonight, as the Upper Low races across Arkansas and the Tennessee valley. PW's spike again, close to the 99th percentile, but bulk qpf will be along/south of the Low track, which at this writing, appears to be just south of the CWA across southwest TN. Rain chances draw down Monday, west to east, as the Low departs eastward across the Cumberland Plateau and Appalachia.
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 75 55 72 51 / 70 30 50 10 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 73 54 69 51 / 80 40 60 20 OAK RIDGE, TN 73 55 69 51 / 80 30 70 20 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 71 50 69 49 / 70 40 70 50.
OPEN WAVE THAT ORIGINALLY WAS THE CLOSED LOW IN EASTERN TX WAS LIFTING NORTHWARD INTO MO AND WAS ENHANCING THE SHOWERS ACROSS THE DVN CWA. ANOTHER UPPER LOW WAS LOCATED IN THE TX PNHDL AND WAS MOVING EAST. WHILE THE UPPER LOW IN TX PUSHES ACROSS OK AND INTO NW ARKANSAS BY THIS EVENING. WE WILL CONTINUE WITH LIKELY POPS THIS EVENING ESPECIALLY AS THE STORM SYSTEM SHIFTS INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY.
A SLOW MOVING MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE MID SECTION OF THE COUNTRY WILL PINWHEEL A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVES THROUGH THE AREA BRINGING ON AND OFF SHOWERS FOR SOUTHERN WISCONSIN TODAY INTO TONIGHT. AS THE TROUGH EXITS LATER TONIGHT. SHOULD BE AROUND 40 ON THE BEACH TO THE LOWER 50S OUT TOWARD MADISON.
INTO THE LOWER 70S. AS AN AREA LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHWEST OF THE AREA.
1001 AM EDT SUN MAR 13 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.
747 AM EDT SUN MAR 13 2016 A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BRING NORTHERLY WINDS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS BEGINNING MONDAY. UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL MAINTAIN CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK. SHALLOW COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED SOUTH OF BTV (AROUND 09Z) AND WILL SEE LOW-LEVEL CAA OFFSETTING DIURNAL HEATING THRU THE DAY.
RAP ANALYSIS SHOWING THE H100-H70 ANTICYCLONE OVER THE WRN ATLC RETREATING EWD AS THE WEAK SHORT WAVE ADVANCES THRU THE ERN GOMEX. MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE TROF IS SOMEWHAT LACKING WITH RAP ANALYSIS REVEALING A SLUG OF DRY AIR OVER LAKE OKEECHOBEE WITH H100-H70 MEAN RH ARND 60PCT. GENTLE TO MODERATE S/SW BREEZE TODAY AS A HI PRES RIDGE OVR THE W ATLC RETREATS EWD AHEAD OF A WEAK TROF ADVANCING ACRS THE ERN GOMEX/FL PENINSULA.
LBX ALREADY SEEING THE LOW CIGS AROUND 700 FEET. /ISSUED 419 AM CDT SUN MAR 13 2016/ WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE THIS MORNING. SFC ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWS LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE FORMING IN RESPONSE TO THE SHORT WAVE IN THE TX PANHANDLE AS WELL. THIS WILL PROVIDE AMPLE MIXING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO SUPPORT DRIER AIR AT THE SURFACE AND MAX TEMPS REACHING THE LOW/MID 80S. MONDAY ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT S TO W BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW.
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL STRENGTHEN TODAY AHEAD OF A SHARP UPPER LOW MAKING ITS WAY ONTO THE OREGON COAST THIS MORNING. THE COLD FRONT AND UPPER DYNAMICS ACCOMPANYING THIS LOW WILL INITIATE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST OREGON THIS AFTERNOON. A VERY MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL RESIDE OVER THE AREA TODAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH ENTERS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. WITH SNOW LEVELS STEADILY RISING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. SCATTERED VALLEY AND NUMEROUS MOUNTAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND COOLER.
NORTH WINDS BEHIND THE LATEST COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BECOME GUSTY THIS MORNING AND THEN DIMINISH LATE THIS AFTERNOON. /ISSUED 454 AM CDT SUN MAR 13 2016/ CLOSED UPPER LOW TO QUICKLY EJECT EASTWARD OUT OF THE PANHANDLES BY 18Z TODAY. ANY CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW WILL ALSO EXIT THE FORECAST AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON.
644 AM CDT SUN MAR 13 2016 SOUTH WINDS TO INCREASE TO 15 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS TODAY AHEAD OF AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.
TO MOSTLY SUNNY IN THE LOWER KEYS. A WEAKENING WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. BUT WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES IN THE LOWER KEYS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 80S ALONG MOST OF THE ISLAND CHAIN.
926 AM EDT SUN MAR 13 2016 WEAKENING COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY WITH A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO BUT A MORE BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS OVER THE BIG BEND AND SUWANNEE VALLEY.
INCREASED MOISTURE AND A DISSIPATING LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO SOUTH FLORIDA THIS AND MONDAY AFTERNOONS. HIGH PRESSURE RE-ESTABLISHES AND DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.
724 AM EDT SUN MAR 13 2016 LOW PRESSURE OVER MISSOURI THIS MORNING WILL LIFT NORTHEAST TO MICHIGAN TONIGHT CAUSING SHOWERS ACROSS OUR AREA. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S NORTH TO THE UPPER 50S SOUTH, WITH LOWS TONIGHT RANGING FROM THE LOWER 40S NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN TO THE MID 50S SOUTH OF ROUTE 24. VORT MAX ASSOCIATED WITH OPENING UP CUT-OFF LOW INDICATED BY WATER VAPOR LOOP LIFTING NE ACROSS NE ARK THIS MORNING. THE MOST WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE OHIO VALLEY SHOULD SPREAD NORTH ACROSS OUR CWA TODAY AS THE LOW/WARM FRONT APPROACHES. COOLER AIR NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT SHOULD BE ENHANCED TODAY BY FLOW AROUND HIGH PRESSURE MOVG SE INTO SRN QUEBEC. THE REMNANTS OF A LARGE UPPER LOW WERE BEING INGESTED INTO A SERIES OF SHORT WAVE TROFS MOVING EAST ACROSS THE CONUS.
Showers and thunderstorms have spread into north central OK ahead of approaching upper low centered near KCDS. /ISSUED 353 AM CDT SUN MAR 13 2016/ Impressive vapor imagery this morning of upper low currently over the TX Panhandle w/ strong height falls sampled as this low passed KABQ yesterday evening. Various higher resolution solutions suggest potential for stronger updrafts to develop across NW AR and also beneath the upper low core. Both regions would support large hail potential and any sustained updraft beneath the upper low core is likely to produce funnel clouds.
1153 AM EDT SUN MAR 13 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.
DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS FOR MID TO LATE WEEK AS A RIDGE BUILDS ALONG THE WEST COAST. RESULTING IN GUSTY WINDS FOR THE MOUNTAIN RIDGES AND DESERT SLOPES THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
MAINLY EAST OF INTERSTATE 65 AS THE REMNANTS OF AN UPPER LOW TRAVERSE THE REGION. BROAD HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED OFF OF THE SE COAST OTHERWISE WAS BRINGING A PERSISTENT MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. AND DECENT DAYTIME HEATING PUSHING HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOW/MID 70S THIS AFTERNOON COULD SET THE STAGE FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL.
SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS AT 11Z SUNDAY WILL BECOME WEST SOUTHWESTERLY AT 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS BY MIDDAY /17Z/ AND BECOME NORTHWEST BY 00Z AS A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND THEN MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. /ISSUED 341 AM CDT SUN MAR 13 2016/ THE UPPER LOW WHICH PROVIDED SEVERAL DAYS OF RAIN ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS HAS QUICKLY EXITED THE REGION TO THE NORTHEAST AS A SECOND SYSTEM WORKS ITS WAY EAST ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE AS THE UPPER LOW TRAVERSES THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
Showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue into the afternoon hours for the Florida Big Bend and south central Georgia counties as a minor short wave trough moves through today (POPs 50 to 70 percent).
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND NEB TODAY. THIS WARMING AIR MASS COUPLED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 50S WILL PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAKLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT BY AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPE VALUES OF A FEW HUNDRED J/KG.