Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Northerly winds will be gusty in many areas through the evening, with strongest winds expected across NW Nye County and some of the higher terrain across the region. It will be dry tomorrow and through the week with a warming trend as high pressure builds over the area.
251 AM CST Mon Mar 2 2020 A weak positive tilt upper trough extending from MN, southwest across the central high Plains will fill as it moves east across KS. A amplified upper level low off the northwest Mexican coast will dig southeast into north central Mexico Tonight. An amplified northern stream upper trough will dig southeast out of south central Canada into the upper Midwest. Northeast winds and cloud cover during the morning hours will only allow afternoon highs to reach the lower to mid 50s. Overnight lows will drop into the lower to mid 30s.
I think it's small enough to be relegated insignificant at this point, so the talk about this low-end severe threat is warranted, especially along and west of I-65 this evening.
1041 PM MST Sun Mar 1 2020 Large-scale pattern continues to show a positively-tilted trough over the western US this afternoon. Much colder temperatures are expected on Monday with snow showers continuing to produce light snow over the higher terrain. Scattered snow showers over the higher terrain will diminish Monday night with partial clearing expected.
1144 PM CST Sun Mar 1 2020 Afternoon temperatures running cooler than yesterday's values in most locations as an earlier frontal passage has resulted in persistent, although muddled, CAA. Additionally, an impulse running through the base of the mid level trough could be enough to spark a few sprinkles or flurries but with meager moisture, not worth a mention in the forecast at this point.
251 AM CST Mon Mar 2 2020 A cold front has shifted through the area early this morning ushering in modest CAA.
High pressure center is now located off the Carolinas and will continue east to near Bermuda on Monday evening. High pressure off the Carolina coast this evening will slide east to near Bermuda by Monday evening.
241 AM CST Mon Mar 2 2020 Latest 08z surface analysis shows weak cold front extending from southern Ontario Canada into central Missouri and high pressure over the Northern Plains states.
1025 PM MST Sun Mar 1 2020 Split trough continues to drift southward across the western US, with the main cutoff low off the California coast. The diffluent area to the east of this trough is currently across southern WY, where the only remaining snowfall continues. Weak ridging will take over for the res of the night and into the day Monday. Some light snowfall may return Monday night for the western mountains as the next wave sweeps well to the north, increasing the upslope flow along the higher peaks.
High pressure at the surface will translate eastward away from the area on Tue allowing southerly flow to return from west to east. This will allow for moderating temperatures with highs returning to the lower 60s across the area.
Medium Cold front off to our southeast which has suppressed the moist axis and thermal ridge southeast as well. Upstream cloud cover is expected to gradually dissipate or shift east as low level flow turns more westerly and displaces the low level thermal trough east as well. Highs will be cooler than yesterday but still above normal.
/issued 409 AM EST Mon Mar 2 2020/ Zonal flow aloft in place over region along with SE surface flow associated with high pressure centered off Eastern Seaboard.
Strong storm system expected to bring heavy rainfall and possible We've got one more dry, warm day before the spigot opens up and gives us some welcome rain! Flow aloft will transition to the SW today as an upper low digs along the West Coast of the U.
The majority of the shower activity associated with this low is occurring from Mohave County westward. This low is going to dive southeastward today, with the low center tracking through northern Mexico. The low exits the area on Tuesday, but lingering showers are possible in the White Mountains region throughout the day. High pressure is forecast to lead to a period of fair weather and warming temperatures through the work week. Northern Arizona could see a return of cooler temperatures and an unsettled weather pattern by the weekend, but uncertainty is high at this point. Dry and slightly warmer conditions are expected on Tuesday.
527 AM CST Mon Mar 2 2020 (Today and tonight) As lower level ridge builds into the region behind a relatively weak cold front, we will see gusty north winds through this morning with a gradual decrease through the afternoon hours. With the cooler temperatures/higher humidities, fire weather conditions will be low despite the gusty wind. The cooler air coming in today is not all that cold compared to early March standards, with todays forecast highs near or just a few degrees below average.
A Pacific low pressure system will bring a chance of valley rain and mountain snow, slowly spreading in from the west this afternoon. Cooler temperatures the first half of the week with a strong warming trend the second half. Border areas and southern mountains closer to the track of the low should get the highest amounts. The Chiricahua mountains of eastern Cochise county may end up with the highest snow totals. Cooler air pushing temps to around 10 degrees below average by Tuesday. A storm system will bring cooler temperatures along with valley rain and mountain snow showers this afternoon through Tuesday evening.
In addition, temperatures are hovering right around and in some cases just above freezing with most roadways also just above freezing.
Temperatures will start to rise again Tuesday as ridging slowly builds.
Temps around the region were generally in the 20s all areas, with some 30s over parts of the plains and tens at the higher elevations of the mtns. Some areas, especially over the higher terrain.
306 AM MST Mon Mar 2 2020 Mid and upper subsidence will increase from the north and west as the weakening trough continues to move off to the east. Across the lower elevations, some lingering snow showers along the Palmer Divide should dissipate by 8 am this morning.
Monday: Currently we are sitting between two 500mn troughs. A trailing cold front from the northern stream is currently draped through northern Nebraska. To the south a deep trough is currently moving onshore in southern california. A few of the higher-res models have slightly higher QPF, however it's still limited to <0.
Currently westerly surface winds out ahead of the trough are keeping temps very warm for a mid January night with teens above zero and even some 20s and 30s in the west. The CAMs and synoptic models both show some light precip signal with the cold front today. Winds should be lighter Monday with slightly cooler temps, but still mostly in the positive numbers, which is a win for this time of year. This initial wave should end tonight, but another period of light snow is shown by guidance to arrive as a cold front pushes into the region Sunday. Winds will vary by direction as a warm front tonight moves east across the region followed by the cold front Sunday afternoon.
520 AM CST Sun Jan 16 2022 Current observations indicate winds gusting around 40 mph through the Buffalo Ridge area very early this morning. Soundings would indicate dry air in the lower levels, so stayed with just a mention of flurries or sprinkles. Snow cover in our eastern areas will keep highs in the lower to mid 30s, but lower 40s will be common through the James River and MO River valleys. In spite of weak cold air advection behind the aforementioned front, it will be a relatively mild night compared to late with lows in the lower 20s. Colder air will hold to the north and east with highs in the lower to mid 30s.
509 AM CST Sun Jan 16 2022 (Today and tonight) A cold start to the morning is expected across West Central Texas, with forecast low temperatures in the low 20s for most locations, with some low lying areas dropping into the upper teens.
357 AM CST Sun Jan 16 2022 Current observations indicate winds gusting around 40 mph through the Buffalo Ridge area very early this morning. Soundings would indicate dry air in the lower levels, so stayed with just a mention of flurries or sprinkles. Snow cover in our eastern areas will keep highs in the lower to mid 30s, but lower 40s will be common through the James River and MO River valleys. In spite of weak cold air advection behind the aforementioned front, it will be a relatively mild night compared to late with lows in the lower 20s. Colder air will hold to the north and east with highs in the lower to mid 30s.
Models have moderately strong northwesterly flow aloft for the CWA today and tonight with upper level high pressure west of Colorado moving slowly eastward. Models also show an anticyclone developing later this morning. There are northeast and easterly winds over Greater Denver and the Palmer Ridge.
/Issued 322 AM CST Sun Jan 16 2022/ A minor short wave trough moving southeast from Colorado will help to bring a weak cold front across the area today. This front will not be more than a wind shift as afternoon highs are expected to be about 20 degrees warmer than yesterday. An upper level ridge will start to push toward the Panhandles tonight.
Tonight's lows will dip into the lower teens to lower 20s.
A weak cold front arrives tonight bringing a wind shift to northerly at CNM, HOB, INK, MAF. Winds remain light behind the cold front.
Dry and quiet weather is going to continue into the early part of the week as we remain under a ridge of high pressure.
Before that happens, we'll briefly advect in slightly warmer temperatures in the low levels. Given this uncertainty I've kept just 15-30% snow chances in the forecast this evening with the highest probabilities in our Illinois counties.
Overnight lows will be warmer than currently, with temps in the lower to middle 20s. Then a cold front drops through the area Wed morning bringing much colder air to the region. Temps will then warm a little for the weekend, but cooler than normal temps are still expected.
Gusty southwest winds in the 20 to 30 knot range early this morning will shift to west as the cold front moves through the region with gust up to 50 knots possible in the vcnty of TSRA. Well advertised potent storm system continues to move through the region early this morning as broken squall line is currently moving into the E Gulf ahead of C Gulf cold front. Shelf waters are above average for this time of year but are relatively cooler than offshore, so will continue to closely monitor radar returns as the system approaches the coast through the early morning hours then translates inland mid morning.
A very active morning across the forecast area as a squall line associated with a cold front moves across the region with several tornado warnings being issued. Strong and gusty southwest winds in the 20 to 30 knot range with higher gusts will shift to west and northwest after 18Z as the cold front moves south through the region.
High pressure both at the sfc and aloft will make for foggy conditions in the lowlands through much of Sunday.
(Today) Upper level low pressure was centered over Southern Mississippi early this morning with the backside of the low having exited Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas. These conditions this afternoon should aid in temps warming into the mid/upper 30s for far Northwest Arkansas to the low/mid 40s forecast for Eastern Oklahoma and West Central Arkansas.
428 AM MST Sun Jan 16 2022 Water vapor shows upper ridge axis over the Pac NW with clipper crossing south central Canada and the Northern Plains. At the surface, trof is pushing into the western Dakotas. Even warmer temps expected on Monday with thermal ridge just off to our west.
High pressure across the region will continue to bring dry and quiet conditions to the Silver State through the next few days. Fair conditions will persist under a high pressure regime through Monday night. A few patches of freezing fog are possible this evening as extremely dry air and a pronounced subsidence inversion exists across the region.
524 AM CST Sun Jan 16 2022 Light snow is anticipated to sweep through the are this morning as a short wave trough embedded in a northwesterly flow pattern aloft slides through the region. Although chances are low, a freezing drizzle scenario could materialize, but was not confident to include in the forecast at this time. The medium range models continue to suggest the flow will remain locked into a northwest flow regime between an upper level low near Hudsons Bay and ridging along the West Coast. Some short wave troughs will be embedded in this flow and will have the potential to produce some light snow across the region.
322 AM CST Sun Jan 16 2022 A minor short wave trough moving southeast from Colorado will help to bring a weak cold front across the area today. This front will not be more than a wind shift as afternoon highs are expected to be about 20 degrees warmer than yesterday. An upper level ridge will start to push toward the Panhandles tonight.
Key Points: -Clouds and some patchy fog to start today -Warming trend through the first half of the week -Strong cold front and cooler temperatures by mid-week The system that brought a widespread one to four inches of snow has departed the region. A weak front will slide through this morning, which should push out the lower cloud cover and fog as boundary- layer winds increase and dry air enters.
High pressure continues to dominate the region, and this is resulting in some morning fog/stratus in the Snake Plain and adjacent valleys.
Otherwise, look for somewhat cooler temperatures today and less wind as gradients slack off in response to the disturbance moving by.
High pressure conditions continue for the next two days. Expect valley inversions, foggy mornings, and the potential for slick roads and sidewalks where freezing fog is more persistent.
328 AM PST Sun Jan 16 2022 Upper low pressure off the Southern California coast will move over the region Monday night.
510 AM CST Sun Jan 16 2022 (Today) Upper level low pressure was centered over Southern Mississippi early this morning with the backside of the low having exited Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas. These conditions this afternoon should aid in temps warming into the mid/upper 30s for far Northwest Arkansas to the low/mid 40s forecast for Eastern Oklahoma and West Central Arkansas.
Most of the snow shower activity will be of the lake effect variety, as the upper trough runs into the storm system bringing the wintry weather to the srn and ern portions of the country. A bit of ridging aloft holds on over the area with the main low over the NE.
There is some patchy freezing drizzle and/or very light snow falling from a thick stratus layer of clouds over the Blue Mountain Foothills. Added some patchy freezing drizzle to the forecast for this morning until 18Z for the Foothills. Otherwise high pressure aloft will continue today through Monday with continued patchy to areas of fog/freezing fog across the Columbia Basin and the adjacent valleys and the eastern Columbia River Gorge.
343 PM EST Sun Jan 16 2022 Low pressure moving across the Mid-Atlantic region will result in significant snowfall for tonight and Monday. Changes for the late aftn update included the insertion of a freezing rain mention for areas east of I 79 given some initial reports south of I 70 as well as a model trend of strong warm advection support for that scenario. Gusty wind is expected to develop in the eastern WV ridges on Monday, and will likely result in blowing snow and lowered visibility. Once low pressure propagates northeast of the area, additional vorticity advection will move sely over the Great Lakes and result in lingering ascent, with lake enhancement and upsloping.
Mild temperatures near or above freezing are expected to continue this afternoon. This combined with heavy cloud cover is allowing temperatures to be modulated this afternoon, with most areas holding steady around freezing.
Northwest flow aloft will gradually become more westerly, and a lee trough will bring southwest winds by Monday afternoon.
This longwave trough continues marching eastward and moves off the Eastern Seaboard by Monday evening. High pressure then builds over the Southern Plains and moves across the Southeast US through Monday evening. For the local region, flow aloft has turned northwesterly in the wake of the upper low. Temperatures tonight will drop to the low to mid 30s, with upper 30s to near 40 along the coast.
1259 PM CST Sun Jan 16 2022 Afternoon satellite imagery shows some stratocumulus clouds pushing down into Nebraska from South Dakota behind a cold front. High pressure sinking into the Southern Plains tonight will quickly start pushing warmer air into the region and bring very warm conditions to central and western Nebraska to start the week.
205 PM CST Sun Jan 16 2022 Snow and mixed precip are ongoing this afternoon as the upper low to our south continues to move east. Models still having a rough time getting precip type and snow amounts with the lowest 3-4kft hovering around freezing, so mixed precip will continue to be possible. But, colder and drier air is working its way in from the northwest as the upper low moves to the northeast, and most of the back half of the precip on radar is being observed as snow at the surface. Very difficult forecast due to the low levels being near freezing for most of the event, and warm pockets held on at the surface longer than expected. Western half of the area should get above freezing though, so that will help a bit.
1011 AM CST Sun Jan 16 2022 The wintry mix is finally tapering off in Christian and Todd counties, but temperatures are likely to need another hour or two to climb above freezing. Any travel difficulties should improve rapidly as the sun comes out and temperatures climb above freezing. Additional snow accumulation in this band should be an inch or less, but a slight warming of temperatures aloft has us a little concerned about a potential changeover to either sleet and/or freezing rain. Any travel issues should let up by late morning and afternoon as precipitation winds down and temperatures climb above the freezing mark.
DGS Chattanooga Airport, TN 39 25 39 24 48 / 100 30 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 40 25 36 23 45 / 90 70 20 10 0 Oak Ridge, TN 38 24 36 22 44 / 100 70 20 10 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 40 25 32 20 40 / 100 70 50 20 0 NC.
Weak cold front sags into the Big Country tonight, but still keeps winds light.
Latest guidance continues to trend of MAV being much cooler than the MET. Issued an SPS to cover possible freezing temperatures early Monday morning. Weak southerly flow will develop Monday afternoon as a trough of low pressure develops near the New Mexico/West Texas border. A weak short wave ridge will move east on Monday on an axis from eastern New Mexico to the Rio Grande plains. The trough of low pressure over West Texas Monday night will keep southerly winds up across the region.
High pressure will settle to the south of the region Monday night, allowing a light south wind to try to develop.
153 PM MST Sun Jan 16 2022 Satellite and RAP analysis indicates high pressure over the western CONUS resulting mainly clear skies, other then a few high clouds moving over the area. Overnight lows were raised slightly due to the lows last night not getting as cold as expected due to high clouds. MLK Day, expecting even warmer temperatures as 850mb temps near 11 degrees Celsius and southwesterly flow during the morning. Due to the warmer temperatures, the southwesterly flow will advect drier air into the area as well resulting in elevated fire weather conditions as RH values fall into the mid to upper teens along and west of Kansas Highway 25. The lowest RH and strongest winds are not anticipated to coincide which should minimize the overall fire weather threats.
Not sure what to think of this, although sounding data from a couple models indicates a wee bit of cape in the low levels due to diabatic heating which could lead to isolated convective like activity. Slight cooler highs is probably okay for the eastern CWA given information above.
Cooler air. Models have moderately strong northwesterly flow aloft for the CWA today and tonight with upper level high pressure west of Colorado moving slowly eastward. Models also show an anticyclone developing later this morning. There are northeast and easterly winds over Greater Denver and the Palmer Ridge.
144 PM MST Sun Jan 16 2022 A dry northwest flow will continue through Monday as general ridging remains across the western US.
Early afternoon satellite imagery featured a broad upper ridge across the NW states with limited upper-level moisture working over the ridge and spilling into SE Idaho. Under the high clouds were three areas of lower stratus clouds. Numerical models suggest little change overnight as the ridge holds firm across the NW. By Monday, a Pacific disturbance will dig SE through British Columbia suppressing the ridge and allowing moisture to advance into the region.
/Tonight through Sunday/ Primary messaging highlights: * Low confidence light freezing drizzle chances northeast this evening * Mild start to the work week * Bitter cold Wed into Fri morning Little change in the general weather pattern is anticipated through the forecast period, and beyond for that matter, with varied degrees of northwest flow for IA and western and eastern CONUS ridging and troughing respectively. At onset, an upper level trough continues to push through the northern Plains and Great Lakes with a noted PV anomaly across SD. Some soundings suggest adequate low level saturation 1km and below for a brief light freezing drizzle potential northeast so have added several hours of slight chances there.
The cold front is just beginning to enter the Florida Keys Gulf waters, and will likely sweep through by this afternoon.
923 AM MST Sun Jan 16 2022 Minor update to the forecast this morning to adjust for light snow over SE Montana associated with a wave diving south into the mean trof over the C/E portion of the country.
Upper ridge is still anchored along the coast, with an inversion in our CWA valleys.
246 PM CST Sun Jan 16 2022 Current surface analysis places high over the Rockies with trough stretching from James Bay towards the upper midwest. Upper level analysis places ridge over the Pacific northwest and trough over the upper midwest. For Monday night, south-southwesterly winds expected ahead of a strong cold front may result in steady or rising temperatures as we get into the overnight.
Currently westerly surface winds out ahead of the trough are keeping temps very warm for a mid January night with teens above zero and even some 20s and 30s in the west. The CAMs and synoptic models both show some light precip signal with the cold front today. Winds should be lighter Monday with slightly cooler temps, but still mostly in the positive numbers, which is a win for this time of year.
254 PM CST Sun Jan 16 2022 18z data has a warm front from central Minnesota down into northwest Oklahoma. For the rest of tonight and Monday dry conditions are expected even through the warm front will move through the area. Temperatures on Monday will be warmer but still below normal for mid- January.
The airmass pushing in is only very slightly cooler but will factor into another fairly chilly night and rapid evening temperature slide, not much different than last night except lows Monday won't be quite as chilly. Also, the lows early Monday should actually occur close to daybreak as opposed to this mornings lows that occurred near midnight much of the area then warmed before daybreak.
Winds will become more northwesterly with time tonight, and will be gusty for a time late tonight and tomorrow morning as the surface pressure gradient tightens in response to strong low pressure moving up the east coast.
126 PM MST Sun Jan 16 2022 Active NW flow will persist as mean western NOAM ridging directs impulses into the Northern Plains, although not much moisture is expected in this pattern. Thermal ridge timing over the region will allow temps to be quite mild Monday combined with decent mixing, with 50s and few 60s expected.