Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
259 AM EDT Sat Oct 3 2020 Another cool, autumn morning across the region currently, with many locations dipping into the lower 40s. However, over portions of southern IN/northern KY where cloud cover has been slow to diminish, temperatures remain a bit warmer in the upper 40s to lower 50s. Under increased cloud cover, overnight temperatures are forecast to stay a bit warmer, with lows in the upper 40s to lower 50s. An upper trough will approach from the northwest on Sunday and move overhead that evening, accompanied by scattered light rain showers.
Breezy north winds are expected this afternoon behind a cold front with only modest cold advection considering the potential this time of the fall. The lower theta-e near surface airmass will allow overall cooler lows tonight in the upper 30s and 40s in most areas. Models have put a limit of about 38 degrees for coldest possibilities, and rising to the low 40s from there, so widespread frost doesn't seem likely at this time. NMM suggests some mid level cloudiness lingering Sunday morning as weak southwest flow becomes re-established, pulling warmer high terrain air air into western Kansas.
151 AM CDT Sat Oct 3 2020 Early morning water vapor showing today's cold front just through CO and headed southward towards the CWA. A bit of moisture tries to sneak into the lower levels of the atmosphere with the front, but the stable northwest flow aloft will keep the moisture from developing into anything but clouds. High amplitude ridge starts to flatten as zonal flow becomes established across the Pacific NW and southwestern Canada on Sunday.
This upper flow pattern will also promote the approach of a cold front, to reach northwest sections of the forecast area by early Sunday.
The persistent upper level trough that has been over the eastern CONUS for the past couple of days will continue through Saturday night before beginning to progress eastward on Sunday. At the surface, high pressure built into the region from the northwest through the day today. Expecting this to begin to break down somewhat as a cold front starts to progress over the ARKLATEX region towards the Deep South late Saturday night into early Sunday morning. Highs Saturday afternoon will be in the lower to upper 70s area- wide. Lows Saturday night will then be a bit warmer than tonight, as temperatures are only likely to drop down into the upper 40s to lower 50s north of I-10 and into the mid to upper 50s south.
Gusty southerly winds will also be a factor this afternoon as the surface pressure gradient tightens ahead of an approaching cold front. This cold front could also produce some showers or thunderstorms along and behind the boundary, mainly for MLC and FSM.
250 AM EDT Sat Oct 3 2020 High pressure will continue to dominate the weather through tonight. The high pressure center will move off the Middle Atlantic coast early Sunday as a weak frontal boundary approaches from the north and west.
41 The cold front has pushed south of the forecast area, and cool and dry northerly air continues to move into north and central Georgia behind the front. However, the influence of the high pressure is expected to keep rain chances out of our forecast area. Temperatures will run 4-8 degrees below climatological normals, with high temperatures in the low to mid 70s (and 60s in the higher elevations of northeast Georgia) on Saturday, and low temperatures in the 40s and low 50s each morning. The forecast picks up on Sunday with NE mid level flow ahead of an approaching mid level trough.
Widespread broken cumulus across Central Indiana today will lead to partly cloudy conditions this evening as gradient balance amid the overall troughy pattern. The broad trough that has been providing chilly weather for the last several days will send its last several embedded short wave troughs across Indiana this weekend. The sharp/quick short wave Sunday will kick eastward the remnants of the once-broad upper-level trough. Northwesterly winds following the associated cold frontal passage Sunday evening should quickly diminish.
327 AM EDT Sat Oct 3 2020 High pressure will cover the Mid Atlantic region today. Low pressure will develop over the central United States tonight and as it moves through the Ohio Valley will push a cold front and a chance of showers through the area.
Skies clear tonight allowing temperatures to fall back into the upper 20s to low 30s with most areas below freezing.
215 AM MDT Sat Oct 3 2020 High pressure will be over the region today and tonight with clear to partly cloudy skies and light winds. The ridge to the west flattens as it moves into Montana tonight and Sunday. It will bring warmer temperatures into the forecast area on Sunday with low RH.
High pressure will then bring a return to mainly dry weather this afternoon through Sunday morning.
/Today through Sunday/ Longwave trof axis remains anchored over the ern CONUS. At the sfc, high pressure continues to migrate ewd, allowing for light sly winds to return across portions of our region.
Fog could be dense in spots, especially near rivers and lakes where water temperatures remain 20 to 30 degrees warmer than the air temperatures. Frost is not anticipated to be an issue this morning as temps and dewpoints will remain well above freezing, but cannot rule out a spot or two of frost especially in our colder southern and eastern locations. Only chance of rain in the next 7 days looks to be on Sunday as a weak cold front swings through the region. After tomorrow, 00Z model suite continues to show northwest flow persisting over the Tennessee Valley this week although heights gradually rise as a weak upper level ridge builds along the Gulf Coast.
/Tonight/ The evening sfc analysis indicates ridging anchored from the OH valley SW across the MS Valley into E TX this evening, with good radiational cooling (despite the thin cirrus noted over E TX/N LA/Srn AR) resulting in temps quickly cooling into the lower to mid 50s across much of the region as of 02Z. Even as this sfc ridging slowly eases E overnight, good radiational cooling will continue, with the coolest temps since mid-April expected.
345 AM CDT Sat Oct 3 2020 WV imagery shows a highly amplified upper ridge over the west coast, and a large trough over the eastern CONUS, leaving West Texas and Southeast New Mexico under SW flow aloft. A cold front approaching the panhandles is forecast to fropa our northern zones by 18Z today, but diurnal heating will likely hang it up, and it'll resume progression after peak heating.
It will be cooler today behind yesterday's wave and cold front, as the low- level flow turns NE. Brief ridging tonight will transition into a zonal flow aloft by Sunday morning.
316 AM EDT Sat Oct 3 2020 High pressure builds over the area today, then moves offshore late tonight through Sunday. Low pressure approaches the Delaware and New Jersey coasts Sunday night, but stays over the Western Atlantic.
1149 PM CDT Fri Oct 2 2020 Have trimmed a couple degrees off the low temps for tonight given currents values and trend with good radiational cooling. Chilly high pressure will stay in the region for one more night tonight, leading to another unseasonably cool start to the day Saturday. The high will shift off a bit to the east during the day Saturday, allowing temperatures to nudge up a bit into the upper half of the 60s. A weak mid-level short wave will drop into the deeper long- wave trof over the MS Valley Saturday night and Sunday.
SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday): Deep South Texas will reside on the subsident side of a deep trough digging across the Great Lakes and southeast states with high pressure continuing over the Desert Southwest. East to southeast flow at the surface will return this afternoon, allowing daytime highs to warm into the lower 90s Saturday and Sunday afternoons. Slight moisture advection right at the surface will cause dew points to increase into the lower to mid 60s.
255 AM EDT Sat Oct 3 2020 High pressure will generally keep cool and dry conditions through the weekend. However, low pressure just off the Atlantic coastline could allow for some isolated showers near the I-95 corridor on Sunday. High pressure is currently centered over Ohio and it will continue to drift east through the next 24 hours. Highs should be very similar to yesterday's temperatures, ranging from the mid 60s north to the lower 70s south.
400 AM EDT Sat Oct 3 2020 Mid clouds will continue to clear out this morning under thickening high clouds ahead of the next low pressure system. The diffuse high pressure will slide eastward through the afternoon helping keep conditions dry. A strengthening vorticity max will move through the main trough while the main axis slides into the western Great Lakes. Showers continue into Sunday afternoon before conditions start to improve throughout the evening with the loss of larger scale forcing as the trough axis slides east of the Michigan. Another day of below normal temperatures in the low to mid 50s expected on Sunday as the cold thermal trough lingers over the region.
1140 PM MDT Fri Oct 2 2020 Amplified ridging over the west coast and a broad trough over the eastern CONUS leave the CWA sandwiched under northwesterly flow. Cloud cover will decrease from north to south this evening, as mid-to- high level moisture tied to the exiting trough axis shifts eastward. Temperatures on Saturday will run a degree or two cooler than observed today, in the wake of today's passing system. Relatively clear skies round out the short term forecast period as high pressure builds into the Great Basin and ridging moves overhead. High pressure over the Desert Southwest will maintain a consistent weather pattern for majority of the forecast period.
High pressure slips east on Saturday with light SW return flow developing. We do not see significant WAA with low pressure still over the Kansas City area. An amplified ridge west/trough east setup over the CONUS continues through the end of the weekend. As far as temperatures go, Saturday night will be relatively warmer compared to the two nights (tonight/Sunday night) bookending it.
330 AM EDT Sat Oct 3 2020 High pressure will bring cool and mainly quiet weather to NY and PA today, though a few lake effect rain showers will continue over upstate NY. A warm front will spread a few light showers across the region Sunday afternoon and evening. Moisture trapped beneath a weak high pressure dome will keep mostly cloudy skies over the region through early afternoon. After a cool start to the day, a warm front will move through NY and PA with isolated to scattered rain showers.
The highest rainfall totals are expected across far southeast Iowa and northeast Missouri and portions of west central Illinois. A broad trough is in place across the eastern two thirds of US this morning. Once again a quarter of an inch of rainfall is expected with the highest totals over far southeast Iowa, northeast Missouri and adjacent portions of west central Illinois. Low temperatures on Sunday morning will range from the mid 30s along the Highway 20 corridor in Iowa to the lower 40s in far far southeast Iowa, northeast Missouri and northwest Illinois south of I-80.
120 AM EDT Sat Oct 3 2020 High pressure will continue to bring dry and cool weather through the weekend. Low pressure off the Atlantic coastline could provide some rain near the coast late in the weekend. Sunday: - A s/w trough will move across the OH and TN valleys during the day and lift toward the NE Coast at night while in a deamplifying trend. - An old boundary/coastal trough will remain stalled just offshore, along with a plume of deep tropical moisture pooled up along this boundary.
For the rest of the morning hours expect this front/trough to make rapid south-southeast progression across central KS into southern KS by late morning. Expect cooler daytime temps on Sunday as well, as the N-NW flow remains in control for at least one more day. This will lead to max temps possibly a tick warmer on Sunday with mostly sunny skies expected.
207 AM EDT Sat Oct 3 2020 High pressure will bring cool and mainly quiet weather to NY and PA today, though a few lake effect rain showers will continue over upstate NY. A warm front will spread a few light showers across the region Sunday afternoon and evening. Moisture trapped beneath a weak high pressure dome will keep mostly cloudy skies over the region through early afternoon. After a cool start to the day, a warm front will move through NY and PA with isolated to scattered rain showers. Sunday high pressure moves east while a broad upper level trough approaches. The trough deepens as it moves east up the Ohio Valley.
1016 PM MDT Fri Oct 2 2020 Upper ridging is persisting across the western CONUS, with northwest flow aloft across the Great Plains. Temperatures will be near to slightly below normal on Saturday, then warmer air will advect in, bringing above average temperatures through the first half of the week.
/issued 904 PM CDT Fri Oct 2 2020/ Canadian high pressure remains over the Mid-South this evening. Current temperatures are already in the mid to upper 40s across much of West Tennessee while the rest of the CWA is in the lower to mid 50s. The next cold front appears on track for a late Saturday night/ early Sunday morning passage through the Mid-South.
With an abundance of cloud cover highs should be a couple of degrees cooler than yesterday, but once again not much wind.
1058 PM CDT Fri Oct 2 2020 Deep long wave trough remains in place over the eastern half of the CONUS, keeping us in chilly northwest flow. High pressure remains pretty much in control into tonight before clouds increase/thicken toward morning ahead of next northwest flow system. Trough in northwest flow aloft then rotates southeast across the area Saturday into Saturday evening for more cloud cover and scattered showers. Sunday is looking like a fine autumn day as high pressure builds over the area.
Dry cold front has pushed through to roughly St. A warm front will push northward into central FL Saturday, with chances for showers spreading northward into our area starting Saturday afternoon.
Otherwise, expect light winds out of the S-SE through most of this morning before shifting around to the NW by 17Z-18Z at HOB and CNM as a cold front enters the region. A large upper trough over the eastern U. Model consensus shows a trough moving into the Pacific Northwest that will dampen a western U.
Not much in the way of QPF is expected with this system due to the modest lift and generally a dry airmass at the surface due to the high pressure.
A few radar reflectivities noted along and east of the Highway 83 corridor but no ground truth. This cool northerly flow could provide for some cooler temperatures tonight in the 30s. Most areas with chances for precip tonight should remain above freezing, although an isolated snow flurry cannot be ruled out in some northeastern areas in the CWA. High pressure should diminish precipitation chances later Saturday morning. Ridge of high pressure moves into the region starting Sunday bringing about the first in a series of warming days.
245 AM EDT Sat Oct 3 2020 High pressure will generally keep cool and dry conditions through the weekend. However, low pressure just off the Atlantic coastline could allow for some isolated showers near the I-95 corridor on Sunday. High pressure is currently centered over Ohio and it will continue to drift east through the next 24 hours. Highs should be very similar to yesterday's temperatures, ranging from the mid 60s north to the lower 70s south.
205 AM CDT Sat Oct 3 2020 A series of disturbances will pass across the region today through Sunday as a mean H7 trof axis ESE from the Upper Midwest across the MS River Valley to over the Ohio Valley.
Overnight models were leaning towards rather cold night with a few flirting with freezing or even lower. Skies may clear out for all areas for a period on Saturday, but not fully convinced as mid/high clouds will stream in ahead of the next trough. Deepening, but progressive northern stream trough will approach Saturday night and bring a decent shot for showers. The trough will quickly exit east with maybe one more frosty night on tap for Sunday night as lows drop into the middle 30s again.
Upper level westerly flow across the area will become northerly on Sunday as another upper level trough swings east across the central plains and into the Ohio valley and upper level high pressure remains in place across the western U. At the surface a weak cold front will move into south central Texas on Sunday. This will lead to slightly warmer low temperatures Sunday morning.
The only change in the short term forecast is that the ridge axis meanders around a little, changing the direction of upper flow over the region. Right at the end, it turns more northwest, but the depth of the subsidence ridge is still quite great, so high temps stay well above normal.
Upper ridge axis remains in place today. Smoke and haze from western US fires has rounded the ridge and is expected to stay through the weekend.
1015 PM CDT Fri Oct 2 2020 Have trimmed a couple degrees off the low temps for tonight given currents values and trend with good radiational cooling. Chilly high pressure will stay in the region for one more night tonight, leading to another unseasonably cool start to the day Saturday. The high will shift off a bit to the east during the day Saturday, allowing temperatures to nudge up a bit into the upper half of the 60s. A weak mid-level short wave will drop into the deeper long- wave trof over the MS Valley Saturday night and Sunday.
/Tonight/ The evening sfc analysis indicates ridging anchored from the OH valley SW across the MS Valley into E TX this evening, with good radiational cooling (despite the thin cirrus noted over E TX/N LA/Srn AR) resulting in temps quickly cooling into the lower to mid 50s across much of the region as of 02Z. Even as this sfc ridging slowly eases E overnight, good radiational cooling will continue, with the coolest temps since mid-April expected. Some brief cirrus cigs will be possible this evening over portions of E TX/Srn AR/N LA, as they round the base of the longwave trough extending from the Rockies E into the Srn Plains/Lower MS Valley and the OH Valley.
404 AM EDT Sat Oct 3 2020 Dry today under high pressure. Rain chances will return Sunday with the approach of a cold front. Building high pressure will allow for a dry day with decreasing cloud cover. Increasing deep layer moisture and ascent ahead of the trough/low should result in the development of scattered showers Sunday and Sunday night.
08z WV satellite depicts continued cyclonic flow aloft over the eastern two thirds of the CONUS with upper ridging over CA with the latest impulse in the northwesterly flow over the central CONUS located over IA. At the surface, a cold front is pushing south through KS, currently located along a JHN/ULS/19S line.
808 AM EDT Sat Oct 3 2020 This morning a jet streak was across north FL and south GA while mid level troughing stretched down the eastern states and into the Gulf of Mexico. Mid level ridging from the Atlantic extended across the Bahamas to Cuba. It meanders there until this afternoon or evening when it merges with a north bound warm front exiting south FL.
634 AM CDT Sat Oct 3 2020 (Today and tonight) The cold front in central and southwest Kansas will move southeast into northwest Oklahoma this morning and continue pushing through the state through the day.
Another cool, autumn morning across the region currently, with many locations dipping into the lower 40s. However, over portions of southern IN/northern KY where cloud cover has been slow to diminish, temperatures remain a bit warmer in the upper 40s to lower 50s. Under increased cloud cover, overnight temperatures are forecast to stay a bit warmer, with lows in the upper 40s to lower 50s. An upper trough will approach from the northwest on Sunday and move overhead that evening, accompanied by scattered light rain showers.
Cold front has caused winds to become northerly at DHT and GUY as of issuance and soon will cause a wind shift at AMA. 08z WV satellite depicts continued cyclonic flow aloft over the eastern two thirds of the CONUS with upper ridging over CA with the latest impulse in the northwesterly flow over the central CONUS located over IA. At the surface, a cold front is pushing south through KS, currently located along a JHN/ULS/19S line.
We've got a really pretty day on tap with highs in the lower 70s to upper 60s. /issued 405 AM CDT Sat Oct 3 2020/ A cold front will move through the area late tonight into Sunday.
322 AM MDT Sat Oct 3 2020 Ridging along the west coast will keep overall northwest flow continuing across the state, but the ridge flattens out on Sunday, shifting the flow more from the west. Cooler airmass behind yesterday's cold front will keep temperatures about 5 degrees cooler than yesterday, right around normal in the upper 60s to around 70. Westerly flow aloft will translate to the surface on Sunday, bringing drier and warmer conditions back to the state through the afternoon.
335 AM PDT Sat Oct 3 2020 High pressure will remain over the region through the first week of October, bringing warm afternoons, dry conditions, light winds, and chilly mornings. Cooler and wetter conditions are possible going into the second week of October. An area of high pressure remains over the region with high temperatures running 10-15 degrees above normal (80s across lower valleys and upper 70s to low-80s in the Sierra).
504 AM EDT Sat Oct 3 2020 High pressure will build eastward across Pennsylvania today. A sharp upper level trough will then lift through the area late Sunday or Sunday night.
High pressure moves south through MN tonight and into IA by Sunday morning. A light southerly surface return flow will develop across the area by Sunday morning west of the high. The airmass will be dry, and with the clear skies and light winds, lows tonight will drop into the lower and mid 30s. Upper level ridging across the western U.
There is a tertiary impulse shearing southeast, but water vapor suggests a bit more eastward track closer to that in the NAM, and these hi-res solutions may be too much importance given to the weakening inverted trough feature across the area in terms of focus for initiation. With an abundance of cloud cover highs should be a couple of degrees cooler than yesterday, but once again not much wind.
/issued 405 AM CDT Sat Oct 3 2020/ A cold front will move through the area late tonight into Sunday.
The stationary front lingering across southern Florida will lift northward as a warm front today, reaching northern portions of central Florida late this evening into tonight. IFR conditions possible at times, as a warm front pushing from south to north bring periods of heavy rainfall into tomorrow. Coverage will increase through this afternoon from north to south, as the persistent stationary front across southern Florida lifts northward as a warm front.
High pressure will continue to persist across South Texas through Sunday. Highs Saturday and Sunday will range from the mid 80s near the coast to the lower 90s across the Brush Country and Rio Grande. Low temperatures Saturday night will remain pleasant with temperatures ranging from the lower to upper 60s.
(Today and tonight) Above normal temperatures will occur today, ahead of a weak cold front that will affect the area this evening and overnight. Temperatures will be a little cooler tonight behind the front, with overnight lows in the mid 50s.
High pressure will be over the region today and tonight with clear to partly cloudy skies and light winds. The ridge to the west flattens as it moves into Montana tonight and Sunday. It will bring warmer temperatures into the forecast area on Sunday with low RH.
638 AM EDT Sat Oct 3 2020 High pressure will bring cool and mainly quiet weather to NY and PA today, though a few lake effect rain showers will continue over upstate NY. A warm front will spread a few light showers across the region Sunday afternoon and evening. Moisture trapped beneath a weak high pressure dome will keep mostly cloudy skies over the region through early afternoon. After a cool start to the day, a warm front will move through NY and PA with isolated to scattered rain showers.