Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
ONCE THIS PRECIPITATION EXITS, EXPECTING CLOUD COVER TO SLOWLY RECEDE WITH TEMPERATURES QUICKLY DROPPING BELOW FREEZING TONIGHT. /ISSUED 259 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015/ THE 20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS AND 88-D RETURNS INDICATED THAT THE COLD FRONT WAS MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION WERE RANGING FROM THE MID 50S AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. EXPECT CLOUDS/SPRINKLES AND ISOLATED SHOWERS TO MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING ALONG AND SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WHICH SHOULD COMBINE WITH CLEARING SKIES TO ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL BELOW FREEZING.
WILL SEE NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AFTER 5 AM. BUT ADDED IN A ROW TO THE SOUTH AND WEST IN WHICH ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BUT SOME PATCHY FROST MAY BE POSSIBLE AS WELL.
810 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015 ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP SLOWLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT REACHING THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT.
ONSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT AND STRENGTHEN SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS ACROSS THE PANHANDLE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE MUCH WARMER ON SATURDAY UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND WITH WARM H85 TEMPS MIXING TO THE SURFACE. WITH THE HIGHER TEMPS BEING ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS. OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD DIP INTO THE LOW 50S TO EVEN THE UPPER 40S ACROSS THE INLAND LOCATIONS. OVERNIGHT TEMPS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER.
850 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND HANGING AROUND THROUGH TOMORROW. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT WITH LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC SUBSIDENCE PERSISTING ACROSS LOCAL AREA. DEPARTING MID LEVEL COLD CORE WITH THIS TROUGH AND ROBUST LOW LEVEL DRY AIR ADVECTION SHOULD BRING AN END TO LAKE EFFECT FLURRIES/CLOUDS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HOWEVER KEPT MOST AREAS AT 10F OR HIGHER AS RIDGE AXIS WILL STILL BE WEST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PRECLUDE MAXIMUM RADIATIONAL COOLING. AND AMPLE SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED W/ HIGH PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE AREA.
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS HAVE DISSIPATED WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROF WILL PRODUCE MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND A FEW SHWRS ACROSS NORTH ALABAMA THRU 03Z. SKIES WILL CLEAR BY 03Z AS SHORT WAVE TROF AXIS PASSES TO THE EAST OF ALABAMA. ADDITIONAL MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO WEST ALABAMA BY 17Z AS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROF APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE NW. WILL SEE NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AFTER 5 AM. BUT ADDED IN A ROW TO THE SOUTH AND WEST IN WHICH ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BUT SOME PATCHY FROST MAY BE POSSIBLE AS WELL.
1045 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015 ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP SLOWLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT REACHING THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT.
807 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015 GOT A REPORT BETWEEN THE GFAFB AND KDVL OF SOME PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE AND SLIPPERY ROADS. WILL GO AHEAD AND ADD SOME PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN FA FOR A FEW MORE HOURS AND SEE WHAT HAPPENS BY THEN. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING OVERNIGHT.
Dry air in the low to mid level will be in place however isentropic ascent on the 285K-295K surfaces coupled with this vort max will help to overcome this dry air and precipitation is expected after midnight. Interrogating model soundings shows that there will be moisture in the snow growth zone with the whole column below freezing with the exception of near the surface.
THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT 20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD WARM FRONT FROM KMIB TO KOGA. STEADILY MOVING EAST ON 2-4MB/3HR PRESSURE FALLS AND UPPER RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE ROCKIES/PLAINS. WESTERLY COMPONENT TO BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL SUPPORT WARM AIR ADVECTION AND SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES THAN PAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS. UPPER/THERMAL RIDGE PEAKS OVER THE CWA. LEE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP EARLY AND PUSH EAST DURING THE DAY. THERMAL RIDGE WILL BE FURTHER ENHANCED BY DOWNSLOPE FLOW.
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE REGION THIS EVENING. THE TROUGH AXIS RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS AFTERNOON'S PRECIPITATION IS FINALLY SHIFTING OFF TO THE EAST THIS EVENING. THIS IS ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO SLIDE INTO ITS PLACE. THIS RIDGE.
EXPECT CLEARING ON SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA WITH WINDS BACKING TO NORTHWEST AND THEN BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY SATURDAY EVENING AS THE CENTER OF THIS HIGH REACHES THE AREA. TONIGHT GOOD SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING OCCURRING BEHIND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON. WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. MINS IN THE LOW TO MID TEENS SHOULD BE NO PROBLEM. RECORD LOWS FOR MARCH 28TH ARE GENERALLY IN THE LOWER SINGLE NUMBERS AND ARE LIKELY OUT OF REACH AS WINDS WILL PROBABLY NOT GO CALM EVEN IF WE DO TOTALLY CLEAR OUT. LONGWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY CENTERED NEAR MICHIGAN AND INDIANA WILL COMPACT AND MOVE EASTWARD.
STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 28/00Z UPPER-AIR PLOTS SHOW HIGH PRESSURE IN CHARGE ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THE HIGH TEMP AT THE TUCSON INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WAS 93 DEGS. TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE LOWER 60S TO THE UPPER 70S. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL RESULT IN CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH LATE SATURDAY EVENING.
CURRENTLY HAVE A SHARP TROUGH EXTENDING FROM WESTERN QUEBEC INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES INTO CENTRAL TX WITH SOME WEAK LEE TROUGHING OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA/EASTERN CO. THESE READINGS ARE STILL ABOVE THE NORMAL HIGHS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WHICH ARE IN THE LOWER 60S. IT DOES LOOK LIKE WE ARE IN FOR COME COOLER TEMPS LATE IN THE WEEK. JAKUB FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE FOR SAT WITH DANGEROUS BURNING CONDITIONS SETTING UP FOR SUN. WIND SPEEDS SAT AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 10-15 MPH RANGE WITH AFTERNOON RH'S IN THE 30-45% RANGE WITH THE LOWER VALUES OVER CENTRAL KS.
A WEAK UPPER RIDGE WILL KEEP WEATHER SYSTEMS MAINLY NORTH OF THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND.
THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE SOUTH AND DIMINISH AS THE LARGE SCALE UPPER TROF AXIS AND EMBEDDED ENERGY MOVES EAST.
1157 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015 FOR 06Z TAFS /ISSUED 915 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015/ LIGHT POST FRONTAL PRECIPITATION CONTINUES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE TN VALLEY AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS SLOWLY EDGES EAST. INTERPOLATING AREA 28/00Z SOUNDINGS YIELDS A SUB FREEZING PROFILE BEGINNING AT ABOUT 2000 FT. ONE OTHER SKY COVER ITEM IS THAT A DECK OF CIRRUS IS MOVING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY. OTHERWISE, MADE SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO AIR AND DEWPOINT TEMPERATURE TREND WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BELOW FREEZING EARLY TOMORROW MORNING.
TEMPERATURES THIS PAST HOUR HAVE DROPPED INTO THE LOW 30S ACROSS NORTHWEST TENNESSEE. AND NEAR FREEZING IN THE JACKSON AREA.
1045 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015 A VERY SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS TO OUR WEST OVERNIGHT AND WILL NOT MOVE EAST OF THE AREA UNTIL SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
612 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015 AT H5 STRONG RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WITH WAVE MOVING INTO THE TOP OF THE RIDGE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. DEEP TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WITH COLD FRONT AND PRECIPITATION OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DRIFT EAST AND WILL STALL ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN NEB OVERNIGHT.
1255 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015 SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WILL END AS COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVER THE WEEKEND. UPPER TROUGH AXIS SWINGS THROUGH THE CWA SATURDAY MORNING. QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY THE 850 MB THERMAL TROUGH.
1020 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR SATURDAY.
AFTER PASSAGE OF TODAY'S COLD FRONT, NOTICEABLY COOLER AIR WILL INVADE THE REGION TONIGHT. MORNING LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S OVER THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA TO THE LOWER TO MID 40S SOUTHEAST.
THE TROUGH AXIS RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS AFTERNOON'S PRECIPITATION IS FINALLY SHIFTING OFF TO THE EAST THIS EVENING. THIS IS ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO SLIDE INTO ITS PLACE. THIS RIDGE.
LIGHT POST FRONTAL PRECIPITATION CONTINUES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE TN VALLEY AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS SLOWLY EDGES EAST. INTERPOLATING AREA 28/00Z SOUNDINGS YIELDS A SUB FREEZING PROFILE BEGINNING AT ABOUT 2000 FT. ONE OTHER SKY COVER ITEM IS THAT A DECK OF CIRRUS IS MOVING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY. OTHERWISE, MADE SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO AIR AND DEWPOINT TEMPERATURE TREND WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BELOW FREEZING EARLY TOMORROW MORNING.
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND NEBRASKA PANHANDLE SATURDAY EVENING WITH BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS LINGERING OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
737 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR SATURDAY.
A POTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. AMPLIFYING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WILL PROGRESS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL BE DRIVEN BY A COMBINATION OF COLD ADVECTION AND RADIATIONAL COOLING BETWEEN 06-12Z AS SYNOPTIC SUBSIDENCE /CLEARING/ COMMENCES IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND THE MSLP GRADIENT TIGHTENS. FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SOUTHER PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST A DEEP UPPER TROUGH(H5 2 TO 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL).
825 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015 A COLD FRONT, STILL OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA, WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS TOWARDS SOUTH FLORIDA. SCATTERED STORMS INTO THIS EVENING, THEN COOLER AND DRY COLD FRONT FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON MAKING STEADY PROGRESS TO THE SOUTHEAST AND IS ON TRACK TO MOVE THROUGH SOUTHERN FLORIDA EARLY THIS EVENING, CLEARING THE PENINSULA AROUND MIDNIGHT THEN WELL SOUTH/EAST OF THE STRAITS SATURDAY MORNING. ALONG THE GULF COAST AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE AREAS, CLOUD COVER HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S. THE MAIN STORY WILL BE THE COOL-DOWN THIS WEEKEND, WITH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY A GOOD 10-15 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY.
THE COMBINATION OF COLD 925 MB TEMPERATURES /-6 TO -10C/ AND STILL SOME SNOW COVER ACROSS SOME PARTS OF THE REGION KEPT TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER AND MID 30S. 12Z MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE QUICKLY SOUTHEAST THROUGH WESTERN MINNESOTA AND WESTERN IOWA. THE WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AND INCREASE IN SPEED AS THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA MOVES EAST AWAY FROM THE REGION AND THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES IN BETWEEN THE DEPARTING HIGH AND APPROACHING SHORT WAVE FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL BRING WARMER AIR INTO THE REGION. 925 MB TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE 2 TO 4C WARMER THAN TODAY.
1115 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015 EARLY AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TOGETHER WITH GFS 500MB HEIGHTS AND WINDS IDENTIFIED A RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. WITH A DEEP TROUGH EXTENDING OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE UNITED STATES. A SUBTLE SHORT WAVE WAS LOCATED IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW DOWNSTREAM OF THE RIDGE AXIS. BY SATURDAY MORNING SOUTH SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION WHICH WILL LEAD TO DEEPER MIXING AND WARMER TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT GOOD SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING OCCURRING BEHIND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON. WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. MINS IN THE LOW TO MID TEENS SHOULD BE NO PROBLEM. RECORD LOWS FOR MARCH 28TH ARE GENERALLY IN THE LOWER SINGLE NUMBERS AND ARE LIKELY OUT OF REACH AS WINDS WILL PROBABLY NOT GO CALM EVEN IF WE DO TOTALLY CLEAR OUT. LONGWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY CENTERED NEAR MICHIGAN AND INDIANA WILL COMPACT AND MOVE EASTWARD.
1257 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR SATURDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST SATURDAY AHEAD OF A WEAK STORM SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM WILL SEND A COLD FRONT INTO NORTHERN UTAH SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS A RIDGE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. WITH A SYSTEM RUNNING OVER THE RIDGE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. RAP 850-700MB THICKNESS/SATURATED EQUIVALENT POTENTIAL TEMPERATURE/STREAMLINES INDICATE THAT UTAH WILL BE IN THE THERMAL RIDGE OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN WARMER THAN GUIDANCE DUE TO A DECENTLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER. STRONG MID LEVEL RIDGING CENTERED ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN THIS AFTERNOON WILL SHIFT EAST TONIGHT.
SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BREAKING DOWN TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AS IT MOVES EASTWARD OUT OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. ADDITIONALLY, A LEE SIDE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO CREATING SOME DOWNSLOPING EFFECT ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS OVERNIGHT. UNDER CLEARING SKIES, LOOK FOR HIGHS UP INTO THE 70S(F) ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS WITH THE LOWER TO MID 80S(F) POSSIBLE IN EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS.
HIGH PRESSURE AND CLEARING SKIES EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF SATURDAY.
902 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015 THE SYNOPTIC SCALE SET-UP /SURFACE TROF OF LOW PRESSURE JUST WEST OF THE CWA/ SHOWCASES A STALLED OUT SURFACE TROF TO THE WEST. THERE COULD BE SOME SPORADIC LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE FOR A SHORT TIME THIS EVENING AFTER THE SNOW ENDS. AN APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL RESULT IN BREEZY WINDS AND WARMER AIR BEING PULLED UP INTO THE AREA SATURDAY.
1001 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015 COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
Short wave trof forecast by models to pass to our west on Saturday keeping the bulk of the clouds and any associated precip out of our area.
731 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015 A VERY SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS TO OUR WEST TONIGHT AND WILL NOT MOVE EAST OF THE AREA UNTIL SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
508 PM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015 SHORT TERM CONCERNS ARE DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE AXIS OF THE LARGE UPPER RIDGE CURRENTLY RESIDING OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN AND ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGIONS MOVES EAST OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS ON SATURDAY AS A TROUGH CUTS THROUGH THE APEX OF THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THE COOLER HIGH PRESSURE AREA AT THE SURFACE CURRENTLY OVER THE PLAINS STATES IS SLIDING FURTHER TO THE EAST AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT HAD BEEN ALONG THE FRONT RANGE THIS MORNING MOVES EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE RESULT IS TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM THROUGH SATURDAY WITH WARMEST TEMPERATURES OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AND COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE EAST.
NORTHWEST WINDS PREVAILED IN THE LOWER AND MID LEVELS. /ISSUED 349 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015/ GORGEOUS WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST PART OF THIS WEEKEND AS COOL AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA. RANGING FROM THE LOWER 40S NORTH TO THE LOWER 50S NEAR THE LOUISIANA COAST. THUS AM CARRYING TEMPS A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE WITH FORECAST AFTERNOON TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 70S.
847 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015 SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WILL END AS COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVER THE WEEKEND. UPPER TROUGH AXIS SWINGS THROUGH THE CWA SATURDAY MORNING. QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY THE 850 MB THERMAL TROUGH.
LIGHT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SE THROUGH THE NIGHT AS DRY AIR AND HIGH PRESSURE APPROACH THE AREA. IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF EAST TENNESSEE AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA. CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 31 51 29 60 / 20 10 0 10 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 27 46 24 57 / 40 0 0 10 OAK RIDGE, TN 27 46 25 57 / 30 0 0 10 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 25 40 19 53 / 30 10 0 10 NC.
/ISSUED 255 PM CDT Fri Mar 27 2015/ WV imagery shows a broad ridge over the western CONUS, leaving West Texas and Southeast New Mexico under NW flow aloft. Upper ridge will begin breaking down and nudging east over the next 24 hours in response to a trough making landfall in the PacNW.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A WARMING TREND DEVELOPING TOMORROW.
909 PM PDT FRI MAR 27 2015 A fast moving cold front will arrive tonight bringing widespread showers, gusty winds, and the potential for thunderstorms to southeast Washington and portions of the Idaho Panhandle.
1257 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015 COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
COLD FRONT WITH NARROW BAND OF SHOWERS NOW PUSHING SE ACROSS SOUTHERN ST. CLEARING SKIES AND LOWER DEWPOINTS ARE SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE MUCH COOLER WITH LOWS IN THE 40S BY MORNING.
A building area of high pressure, of Canadian origin, will help ensure this line of thinking. Short wave trof forecast by models to pass to our west on Saturday keeping the bulk of the clouds and any associated precip out of our area.
1002 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015 A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED OFFSHORE.
/ISSUED 300 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015/ SKIES ARE SUNNY ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S ALMOST AREA WIDE.
518 PM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015 00Z TAF CYCLE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AMERICAN SOUTHWEST.
SOUTHERLY WINDS TONIGHT WILL TURN NORTHERLY BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT AND THEN THEY SHOULD VEER AROUND TO SOUTHEASTERLY BY SATURDAY EVENING AS A NEW LEE- SIDE TROUGH DEVELOPS TO OUR WEST. /ISSUED 533 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015/ SOUTHERLY WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME NORTHERLY BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT AFTER SUNRISE ON SATURDAY. /ISSUED 355 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015/ AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS BETWEEN WESTERN CONUS RIDGE AND EASTERN CONUS TROUGH EXISTS TODAY.
WINDS MAINLY LIGHT WITH SOUTHWEST WIND DOMINATING BEFORE SHIFTING TO SOUTHEAST LATE IN FORECAST PERIOD AS WARM FRONT DEVELOPS NEAR RED RIVER.
AND 20-22 UTC HRRR AND RAP ITERATIONS ALL FAVOR THE STRATUS ACROSS THE JAMES AND RED RIVER VALLEYS AS OF 23 UTC TO BUILD BACK WEST THROUGH ABOUT THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR DURING THE NIGHT. CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES WARM FRONT SLIDING THROUGH WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WITH TROF CUTTING THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. RIDGE AXIS PUSHES EAST OVER OUR AREA BEFORE A POTENT SHORT WAVE AND STRONG COLD FRONT MAKE THEIR APPROACH. WHILE COOLER CONDITIONS REMAIN EAST.
COLD HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES SATURDAY NIGHT. SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS CUTTING THROUGH OHIO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON RESULTED IN THE ENHANCEMENT OF STRATOCU THERE. WHILE SHOWERS MAY FORM OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVER THE LOWLANDS AS WELL TONIGHT. THE STEEP LATE MARCH LAPSE RATES RESULT IN SFC TEMPERATURES HIGH ENOUGH ACROSS THE LOWLANDS TO MELT THE HYDRO METEORS INTO THIS EVENING. MAINTAINED LIGHT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS UPWARDS OF AROUND AN INCH OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN.
SUBJECTIVE 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES DIGGING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US. AND AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN US. WITH 500MB HEIGHT RISES ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS. UPPER-LEVEL JET WAS STRONGEST AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE BRINGING ANOTHER POTENTIAL FOR RAIN.
TURNING NOTICEABLY COOLER AND DRIER THIS WEEKEND BEHIND A STRONG. THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS OBSERVABLE JUST NORTH OF VOLUSIA CO ON MLB RADAR ATTM. BRINGING A RETURN TO 50S ALONG WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTY WINDS IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE COOLER AIRMASS SWEEPS SWD INTO THE AREA. EXPECT STEADILY IMPROVING SKC CONDS BEHIND COLD FRONT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SFC WND GUSTS NR 20 KTS AFTER FROPA THROUGH AROUND 10Z.
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE WARMER THAN TODAY. BUT BIAS CORRECTION OVER THE LAST 15 DAYS PUSHES IT UP INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S.
1154 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015 12Z UA ANALYSIS HAS THE MAIN 850MB COLD FRONT FROM NEW ENGLAND TO THE GULF COAST WITH A SECONDARY FRONT FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES INTO CENTRAL MISSOURI. 18Z SFC ANALYSIS HAS HIGH PRESSURE FROM LAKE SUPERIOR INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. A WARM FRONT RAN FROM THE WESTERN DAKOTAS INTO WESTERN KANSAS. QUIET AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FROM LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH MIDNIGHT AS THE HIGH SLOWLY MOVES EAST. QUIET AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN ON SATURDAY AS YET ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH THE MIDWEST.
QUIET CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SETTLES OVER THE REGION. TEMPS BENEATH THE HIGH UPSTREAM IN ONTARIO THIS MORNING WERE AS LOW AS 20S BLO. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ON SATURDAY WITH HIGH CLOUDS ONLY INCREASING LATE IN THE AFTN AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS SCNTRL CANADA AND NORTHERN PLAINS. DEEP MIXING WILL ALLOW TEMPS OVER FAR WEST TO REBOUND TO THE LOW 40S WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S ELSEWHERE. IN SOME PLACES THIS ENDS UP BEING A DIURNAL SWING OF OVER 60 DEGREES! COOLER EXCEPTION FOR HIGHS WILL BE OVER EAST AS SW WINDS OFF LK MICHIGAN HOLD TEMPS THERE IN THE UPR 20S TO NEAR 30 EVEN WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. NAM SHOWS A DEEP 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE ERN U.
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATING THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE STATE WHILE TROUGH MOVES EAST ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS WILL RESULT IN SOUTHEAST WINDS INCREASING IN THE AFTERNOON WITH GOOD DAYTIME HEATING AS THE DRY AIR REMAINS IN OVER THE AREA AND HIGH PRESSURE IS STILL IN CONTROL.
AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER TXK AREA SLIDES SOUTHEAST THE WINDS SHOULD BECOME MORE EASTERLY OVER MUCH OF THE AREA NOT EXPERIENCING SW FLOW NOW. /ISSUED 300 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015/ SKIES ARE SUNNY ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S ALMOST AREA WIDE.
715 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015 ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP SLOWLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT REACHING THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT.
STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL RESULT IN CLEAR SKIES AND SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL WEAKEN AND DRIFT EAST OVER THE WEEKEND. AND A RETURN OF THE MARINE LAYER FOR COOLER DAYS.
BROAD AND IMPRESSIVE THERMAL TROUGH WILL REMAINED ANCHORED JUST EAST OF THE AREA. THE PRECIP WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN FOR WESTERN AREAS.
531 AM CST THU FEB 19 2015 FAST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION IN BETWEEN A DEEP TROUGH TO OUR EAST AND RIDGING TO OUR WEST. MOISTURE WILL BE THE LIMITING FACTOR EARLY TODAY WITH DRY HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD.
HIGH PRESSURE/ARCTIC AIRMASS STARTS TO SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. THEN SLOWLY RISING AFTER MIDNIGHT AS CLOUDS INCREASE AND RELATIVELY WARMER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE PLAINS. FOCUS THEN TURNS TO FAIRLY LONG DURATION/LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING IN RESPONSE TO A WARM FRONT PUSHING IN FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE AND SUBSIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE. BUT WILL MONITOR TRENDS FOR POSSIBLE EARLY CANCELLATION IN THE WEST AS WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PASSES THROUGH.
SURFACE OBS HAVE SHOWN DEWPOINTS DROPPING SOME 10-20 DEGREES OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS FROM THE BAY AREA NORTH WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE NOW IN THE LOWER TEENS. THIS LATE ARRIVAL OF THE SECONDARY SURGE ALLOWED FOR TEMPS TO STAY A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN FORECAST. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT WILL BRING STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS IN THE 20 TO 25 KNOT RANGE WITH GUSTS UP TO GALE FORCE WELL OFFSHORE.
THE ARCTIC AIR ALOFT EXITS FRIDAY AS A MID-LEVEL RIDGES MOVES THROUGH THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. WARM AIR ADVECTION GETS GOING IN ERNEST FRIDAY NIGHT AS WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY THANKS TO THE HIGH MOVING OFF THE MID- ATLANTIC COAST AND THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE HEADING TOWARD THE NJ COAST.
EXPECT SEASONAL TEMPERATURES THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS WITH WARMER THAN NORMAL MIN TEMPS TONIGHT. UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN US PULLS FARTHER EAST TO LEAVE A MORE ZONAL PATTERN OVER TX.