Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
(Today and tonight) As of 3 AM, a cold front was moving south across the northern Big Country. Temperatures will be much colder across the area tonight, with overnight lows ranging from the upper 30s across the Big Country, to the lower and middle 40s along the I-10 corridor.
134 PM EDT Fri Oct 23 2020 Easterly flow will prevail once again today as our region lies between a cold front across the OH Valley, Hurricane Epsilon east of Bermuda, and a tropical disturbance in the Caribbean. Along and south of the I-4 corridor, upper 80s (perhaps 90) with lows in the lower 70s.
244 PM CDT Fri Oct 23 2020 Cold/breezy conditions this afternoon behind cold front which has pushed southeast of the region. Areas of frost will be possible along and north of I-44 with freezing temperatures further northwest.
308 PM CDT Fri Oct 23 2020 A strong cold front is currently moving into East Arkansas and will push across the Midsouth tonight.
Clouds will be slow to clear tonight as weak high pressure builds southeast from the Dakotas.
1251 PM CDT Fri Oct 23 2020 Updated for 18Z aviation discussion 18Z TAF discussion: VFR conditions will prevail this afternoon, but expect deteriorating conditions tonight as SHRA/TSRA and MVFR ceilings increase in association with a cold front expected to move eastward across the forecast area.
/issued 417 AM CDT Fri Oct 23 2020/ Current observations show a strong cold front is currently moving into the northern Permian Basin and should be south of I-20 by sunrise. High pressure behind the front will settle into West Texas and southeastern New Mexico tonight bringing lows down around 10 degrees below normal with even a light freeze possible in northern Lea County.
Surface cold front will push through all of Southeast Michigan by 00Z with midlevel cold front then sliding across between 03-06Z this evening.
This forecast highlights the areas most likely to see snow based on ensemble spread, but hedges slightly higher than the most likely snow amounts across the Advisory area to encapsulate some of the higher end potential.
The area will see an increase in shower and thunderstorm coverage this evening as the upper trough approaches, along with precipitable water values rising into the 1. a system continues to organize over the southwestern Caribbean, and NHC is now giving this system a 70% chance of cyclone formation in the next 48hrs. East to southeast winds around 10 knots will last through the day into the evening, becoming light northerly overnight as a weak cold front sags south across the forecast area and stalls along the coast.
Temperatures are already in the lower to mid 70s. Some models suggest, this low-level moisture may be sufficient enough for some drizzle throughout the day but have gone dry behind the front for now. Regardless, temperatures will be noticeably cooler with highs only in the mid 60s to low 70s.
Taking a look at the details, the 500mb trough over much of the Canada and the northern half of the U. An west to east oriented embedded trough currently over southwestern Canada will slowly sink across ID/MT Saturday morning. While 850mb temperatures are already a standard deviation or two below climo, we will also see a 1040mb high move into the high plains.
There, clouds and wind will be less prevelant and overnight temperatures are more likely to dip below freezing for multiple hours as strong radiational cooling occurs.
342 PM CDT Fri Oct 23 2020 The cold front has pushed out of the area, leaving behind much colder temperatures today and gusty northwesterly winds.
1259 PM CDT Fri Oct 23 2020 (Today and tonight) As of 3 AM, a cold front was moving south across the northern Big Country. Temperatures will be much colder across the area tonight, with overnight lows ranging from the upper 30s across the Big Country, to the lower and middle 40s along the I-10 corridor.
AC Chattanooga Airport, TN 64 74 59 76 63 / 40 40 10 10 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 62 70 57 73 61 / 40 60 10 10 10 Oak Ridge, TN 62 70 57 73 61 / 50 50 10 10 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 59 70 55 71 56 / 30 70 10 20 10.
Dense upper-level cloud cover and appreciable moisture is streaming ewd across the nrn Rockies into the nrn High Plains ahead of the next robust trof. Satellite- derived layered PWAT fields reveal considerable low-to-midlevel moisture associated with this trof across the Pac NW and steadily moving ewd toward the Rockies.
(This evening through Saturday) The main concern for tonight into early Saturday morning will be the potential for freezing temperatures across western and northern Oklahoma.
/Issued 1031 AM CDT Fri Oct 23 2020/ A cold front has just about exited the area this morning and is currently near a KHRO-KRKR line.
243 PM CDT Fri Oct 23 2020 Temperatures are struggling to rise from the 50's this afternoon behind a strong cold front that moved through this morning. High pressure moves off to the east Saturday and return flow will help temperatures climb back to seasonal levels by afternoon.
It is unclear how well the current organized convective system in the ArkLaTex region will hold together as it moves east, but CAM guidance hints that lift will peak again late tonight over central/eastern MS, and that is where the highest rain chances are for now. In any case, temperatures should be quite a bit cooler than experienced Friday, especially for locations along/NW of the Natchez Trace parkway.
Northerly winds remain breezy through sunset with continued CAA and cloud cover keeping highs in the low to mid 40s this afternoon.
At that point the system slows a bit in the southeastern counties, interacting with the ridge that is along the western Gulf Cost, but is expecting to enter the coastal waters around 6pm.
Elsewhere, clouds in the east and the lack of snow cover along the Iowa border have allowed for temperatures to remain near the freezing mark, or in the mid 30s. The main reason why this system isn't expected to produce winter storm warning snowfall amounts is that the upper level wave has a positive tilt, and therefore the low level convergence and frontogenesis isn't very strong or long lasting. Plus the wind fields are light in the lower levels, so the moisture flux is reduced. For that reason when slightly less than the 50th percentile of snowfall for the official snowfall forecast, especially across central and northern Minnesota where the lowering trend in QPF amounts is most evident.
The awaited positively tilted upper level trough approaches from the west/northwest, but the best overall synoptic lift will remain well west of our area with this next wave.
The Lower Keys has at times been brushed by a few of these passing showers. The area remains pinched between between a broad area of low pressure to our south and southwest and a continental high located over the Appalachians.
1220 PM CDT Fri Oct 23 2020 The surface cold front finally exited southeast KS early this morning. Temperatures tonight will plunge into the mid 20s to near freezing across much of central, south central, and southeast KS. High pressure will build across the region today through tomorrow, while the upper flow turns more zonal.
1113 AM CDT Fri Oct 23 2020 High pressure has allowed for a little quicker clearing from west to east this morning. An upper level trough is currently moving through the region, bringing mostly cloudy skies and scattered flurries. Snow should increase in coverage and intensity throughout the day on Saturday, with the highest snowfall amounts likely occurring in north central SD where storm total amounts of 6 inches or more will be possible.
242 PM CDT Fri Oct 23 2020 Cold front now pushing toward the MO Bootheel at this hour.
-Severe thunderstorm threat through this evening as thunderstorms continue to track across central Indiana with cold front.
1224 PM CDT Fri Oct 23 2020 Some scattered SHRA/TSRA will remain possible along/ahead of the cold front as it progresses SE through the state through this afternoon and early evening. Across C AR, temperatures should climb into the upper 70s/lower 80s before colder air arrives later in the afternoon, and across Srn AR, temperatures should reach the lower/mid 80s with cold air not arriving until after sunset this evening. Overall the front will be shallow in nature by the time it enters and moves through the state, therefore frontal lift along the boundary will be isolated to the lowest Km. Colder air will filter into the region with high pressure moving into the C Plains. Overnight lows will range from the upper 30s/lower 40s N to the lower 50s across S AR.
1234 PM CDT Fri Oct 23 2020 (Today and tonight) The strong cold front continues to make steady progress across Oklahoma and north Texas early this morning. The cooler airmass will cover our entire forecast area by about 8 am. Where the sky clears, there will be a risk of frost or freezing temperatures tomorrow (Friday) night. We have issued a Freeze Watch where Saturday morning's low temperatures are expected to be in the lower 30s F, and a Freeze Warning for areas expected to be in the 20s F.
230 PM EDT Fri Oct 23 2020 High pressure will weaken over the southern middle Atlantic through tonight.
A more widespread area of showers and thunderstorms was in progress over the Mid South and eastern Arkansas, just ahead of an approaching cold front. A somewhat noticeable temperatures gradient will be realized by daybreak Saturday, with lows ranging from the mid 50s over NW AL to the lower 60s NE AL. The cold front should be slowly making its way across the forecast area during Saturday. Still it will be cooler after the front passes, with highs ranging from the lower 60s west to lower 70s west.
The storms are expected to weaken as they move closer to the coastline and possibly stall a bit more as they get to the GLS flying area and interacts with the ridging expending from the Atlantic coastline.
Center of high pressure and driest airmass and lightest winds will slide from far western ND into western and central SD tonight. That said the big thing going for the lower temperatures is snow cover which is quite deep in the southern fcst area with widespread 4 to 8 inch depth far SE ND into WC MN. Low temperatures tonight will likely be quite variable as low lying locations that may drop to near calm radiate out with lows in the single digits vs other areas where some wind remains esp in NE ND and NW MN farther away ffrom the high hold in the teens.
300 PM EDT Fri Oct 23 2020 Short wave, and associated cold front, approach state tonight and sweep through Saturday before exiting Saturday night.
1031 AM CDT Fri Oct 23 2020 A cold front has just about exited the area this morning and is currently near a KHRO-KRKR line.
Mostly quiet conditions ahead of the cold front arrival later this afternoon/evening.
328 PM CDT Fri Oct 23 2020 A cold front moving into the area this afternoon is producing a line of showers and thunderstorms.
1247 PM CDT Fri Oct 23 2020 The cold front has slipped past the area this morning with the remaining post-frontal band of showers moving slowly off to the east. Regional radars this morning showing a band of light precipitation occurring ahead of the short wave trough from northern Nebraska into southwest Minnesota. As the short wave trough continues to move to the east/northeast, the short term guidance suggests this band of light precipitation will hold together and may increase in intensity underneath a weak band of frontogenesis in the 700-500 mb layer. This band should exit the area early this afternoon as an area of high pressure builds in from the northwest for the overnight hours.
930 PM CDT Fri Oct 23 2020 Current surface observations show the cold front exiting the Mid- South. Temperatures tonight generally drop to the lower 50s. /issued 308 PM CDT Fri Oct 23 2020/ A strong cold front is currently moving into East Arkansas and will push across the Midsouth tonight.
/Tonight through Saturday Night/ Showers and thunderstorms will continue to move through the region this afternoon/evening along the aforementioned cold front. Overnight lows will fall into the lower to upper 50s area- wide, with some upper 40s in some locations across East TX/SE Oklahoma. Expect dry conditions on Saturday as high pressure moves into the region. Dry conditions to continue Saturday night with overnight lows in the low to mid 50s area-wide.
/issued 134 PM EDT Fri Oct 23 2020/ Easterly flow will prevail once again today as our region lies between a cold front across the OH Valley, Hurricane Epsilon east of Bermuda, and a tropical disturbance in the Caribbean. Along and south of the I-4 corridor, upper 80s (perhaps 90) with lows in the lower 70s.
Latest surface observations show cold front has passed Clarksville with temperatures already down into the upper 40s across western Kentucky. After reaching the low to mid 80s across much of the area today, this front will bring a chilly 25 to 35 degree temperature drop by Saturday morning. However, no more strong or severe storms are anticipated due to the loss of daytime heating and activity having moved east of the higher instability axis. A cold front will move across the area tonight bringing showers/ storms, which will reduce VSBYs briefly, and later this evening a low deck is expected to follow.
820 PM EDT Fri Oct 23 2020 High pressure will weaken over the southern middle Atlantic through tonight.
There, clouds and wind will be less prevalent and overnight temperatures are more likely to dip below freezing for multiple hours as strong radiational cooling occurs.
McCall is forecast to be near to slightly above freezing with less than an inch of snow forecast; however, just a degree or two cooler and a couple inches of snow could accumulate by sunrise. A cold front will push through the area during the morning with gusty northwest winds during the afternoon.
724 PM CDT Fri Oct 23 2020 (This evening through Saturday) The main concern for tonight into early Saturday morning will be the potential for freezing temperatures across western and northern Oklahoma.
/issued 243 PM CDT Fri Oct 23 2020/ Temperatures are struggling to rise from the 50's this afternoon behind a strong cold front that moved through this morning. High pressure moves off to the east Saturday and return flow will help temperatures climb back to seasonal levels by afternoon.
Meanwhile, the showers have stayed just south of the Lower Keys, leading to a rain-free evening. Historically, most of the late season tropical cyclones that affect the Keys come from the south.
608 PM CDT Fri Oct 23 2020 The cold front has pushed out of the area, leaving behind much colder temperatures today and gusty northwesterly winds.
402 PM CDT Fri Oct 23 2020 Calm before the storm as surface ridging builds into the region tonight.
/issued 308 PM CDT Fri Oct 23 2020/ A strong cold front is currently moving into East Arkansas and will push across the Midsouth tonight.
/Issued 300 PM EDT Fri Oct 23 2020/ Short wave, and associated cold front, approach state tonight and sweep through Saturday before exiting Saturday night.
718 PM EDT Fri Oct 23 2020 Southeast Michigan now within the immediate post-cold frontal environment, characterized by a gusty northwest wind and extensive MVFR stratocumulus. Surface cold front will push through all of Southeast Michigan by 00Z with midlevel cold front then sliding across between 03-06Z this evening.
301 PM MDT Fri Oct 23 2020 AFTERNOON DISCUSSION: Synoptic Setup: Forecast begins with Arctic airmass over the Canadian Prairie Provinces and desert air bottled up over the Lower Intermountain West.
As this expands northeast, it will also meet up with an approaching cold front. Wind profiles indicate steering motions will be rather parallel to the cold front/band of storms, so echo training is likely to produce pockets of heavier rainfall, possibly leading to isolated excessive rain and brief flash flood risk. The cold front should be slowly making its way across the forecast area during Saturday. Still it will be cooler after the front passes, with highs ranging from the lower 60s west to lower 70s west.
Cold front now pushing toward the MO Bootheel at this hour.
/issued 328 PM CDT Fri Oct 23 2020/ A cold front moving into the area this afternoon is producing a line of showers and thunderstorms.
/Issued 244 PM CDT Fri Oct 23 2020/ Cold/breezy conditions this afternoon behind cold front which has pushed southeast of the region. Areas of frost will be possible along and north of I-44 with freezing temperatures further northwest.
This shower activity is being generated along a cold front that extends from the Great Lakes south through the Tennessee valley. Isolated showers will be possible through the day Saturday mainly south of I-40 and into the higher elevations of the Southern Appalachians. Highs today will be much cooler than previous days with the extensive cloud cover and light precipitation expected. Lows tonight will range from the low 50's to near 60.
The NBM and nearly all of the high resolution models depict areas of fog developing, with the best coverage along and S/E of the I-20 corridor. Lows should generally be in the lower 60s. A weak upper level trough will move across The Midlands and CSRA this weekend.
Scattered SHRA/TSRA continue across the CWA along and well ahead of the cold front as it pushes ESE through the state. while temps have cratered into the low 40s to mid 50s behind the front.
-- Fair weather Saturday -- A high pressure ridge will gradually build in from the northwest Saturday and result in fair wx with partly cloudy skies and much cooler temps. In fact high temps Saturday will only reach the lower to middle 40's. However an upper level trough gradually approaching from the northwest will bring a chance of showers mainly to our north/nw fcst area Sunday afternoon and then across our area Sunday night. As high pressure builds in wind and waves will no longer be hazardous to small craft by late Saturday morning.
441 AM EDT Sat Oct 24 2020 A crossing cold front will maintain scattered showers early this morning. Higher chances for rain are expected with early week low pressure. Areas of showers should taper off this morning as a cold front completes its passage.
335 AM CDT Sat Oct 24 2020 Snow starting to enter southwestern ND along a frontal boundary setting up ahead of a large upper level trough. Most of the higher accumulations still look to come in the southwest and south central where Winter Weather Advisories remain for 4 to 7 inches of snow.
1109 PM CDT Fri Oct 23 2020 Much cooler weather will prevail over central and southeast Illinois this weekend, with high temperatures both Saturday and Sunday in the 40s and 50s.
151 AM EDT Sat Oct 24 2020 High pressure will build in today leading to cool conditions.
High pressure continues to build in from the north, causing northeast breezes throughout the day. Highs today will struggle to warm out of the low 50s.
Latest surface observations show cold front has passed Clarksville with temperatures already down into the upper 40s across western Kentucky. After reaching the low to mid 80s across much of the area today, this front will bring a chilly 25 to 35 degree temperature drop by Saturday morning. However, no more strong or severe storms are anticipated due to the loss of daytime heating and activity having moved east of the higher instability axis. A cold front and band of showers will continue to move across the area.
Tonight is shaping up to be cooler as light winds and mostly clear skies allow for optimal radiative cooling.
312 AM EDT Sat Oct 24 2020 A weak cold front will bring a chance of showers to the area Sunday. Weak high pressure offshore and southerly flow across the region will bring another day of above normal temperatures in the low to mid 80s today with plenty of sunshine. The next round of weather moves in for Sunday as a cold front approaches bringing cooler weather closer to normal in the mid to upper 70s and chances for rain showers and rumbles of thunder Sunday afternoon.
Cold front has moved south of the region with stratus post-frontal clouds filling back in across the Victoria Crossroads. Winds will diminish during the day as high pressure ridge settles into the area and moves east this evening. /Issued 1003 PM CDT Fri Oct 23 2020/ A cold front is currently sliding through the CWA with much cooler temperatures and gusty winds developing behind it.
It appears that the eastern one or two rows of counties in the Freeze Warning/Frost Advisory may be spared frost or freezing temperatures this morning.
The 0Z deterministic runs of the ECMWF and GFS do agree will with the higher snowfall amounts of 3 to 7 inches occurring over Hughes, Stanley, Jones, and Lyman County. To start the period, a broad positive tilt upper trof will be pushing through the Northern Plains.
Clouds will be slow to clear tonight as weak high pressure builds southeast from the Dakotas. Another low pressure system will move through the region Saturday night and Sunday.
231 AM CDT Sat Oct 24 2020 Showers still holding on in the southeast part of the mid state with the cold front early this morning.
1107 PM EDT Fri Oct 23 2020 Strong cold front sweeping across the region later tonight will support showers and some thunderstorms through the overnight hours. In the wake of the front, a dry and much cooler weekend is in store for the region. True cold front shows up as lighter line of reflectivity crossing central Lake Erie to near London Ontario. Showers and diminishing thunderstorms moving toward Genesee Valley are along and ahead of pre-frontal trough which is crossing eastern Lake Erie currently. Cooler, yet still moist westerly flow off Lake Erie overnight behind the front may result in brief stratus/fog from Buffalo to the highlands to the east and into the western Southern Tier before it gets scoured out late tonight. Thus, Saturday will result in mainly cloudy conditions with highs being nearly 20-30 degrees cooler than the day before.
/issued 930 PM CDT Fri Oct 23 2020/ Current surface observations show the cold front exiting the Mid- South. Temperatures tonight generally drop to the lower 50s. /issued 308 PM CDT Fri Oct 23 2020/ A strong cold front is currently moving into East Arkansas and will push across the Midsouth tonight.
Warmer temperatures expected tomorrow as surface features sharpen ahead of the next approaching upper trough. Strong cold front still on track to move through late tomorrow and tomorrow night. Rain chances will increase Sunday night as better upper support from the approaching trough arrives.
Consensus temperature forecasts still does marginally support lows close to freezing in our far northwest counties. There, clouds and wind will be less prevalent and overnight temperatures are more likely to dip below freezing for multiple hours as strong radiational cooling occurs. A deep southwest flow regime will commence across the Plains by Sunday evening as a 500-mb longwave trough digs into the Four Corners region.
Cold front is currently moving through NE Indiana and southeastern Michigan. High pressure overspread the area on Saturday with mostly clear skies. Despite the sunny weather, high temperatures will struggle to break into the lower 50s. Models continue to show a Manitoba trough slowly dropping southwards over the course of the day on Sunday.
150 AM EDT Sat Oct 24 2020 Strong cold front sweeping across the region overnight will support showers through Saturday morning. In the wake of the front, a dry and much cooler weekend is in store for the region. A cold front is tracking across western NY late tonight. Thus, Saturday will result in mainly cloudy conditions with highs being nearly 20-30 degrees cooler than the day before.
300 AM EDT Sat Oct 24 2020 A crossing cold front will maintain scattered showers early this morning. Higher chances for rain are expected with early week low pressure. Areas of showers should taper off this morning as a cold front completes its passage.
1102 PM CDT Fri Oct 23 2020 (This evening through Saturday) The main concern for tonight into early Saturday morning will be the potential for freezing temperatures across western and northern Oklahoma.