Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
346 AM EDT Thu Jun 23 2022 High pressure builds in from the west today as height rises commence and deep layer anticyclonic flow becomes established overhead. After several days featuring temps slightly or well above normal, highs return to near-normal in the lower 80s with dew points in the lower 50s keeping humidity levels comfortable.
/issued 333 PM CDT Wed Jun 22 2022/ Upper ridge is providing hot weather across the region this afternoon with temperatures already reaching 100 degrees at a few locations. An approaching back door cold front will provide isolated showers and thunderstorms across the northern part of the forecast area this afternoon into early evening. The frontal boundary will move through the forecast area tonight and provide a drier and slightly cooler airmass Thursday and Friday.
425 AM EDT Thu Jun 23 2022 The latest surface analysis shows the cold front to our north along the Ohio River. Some scattered showers have developed across the area and should continue to move out of the area this morning as the cold front weakens/moves to the south. Upper level high pressure will continue to support warm conditions across the Commonwealth through the short term period. High pressure will also be building in from the north and will help clear out any residual cloud cover this morning. Friday will be roughly 3-5 degrees warmer than Thursday as high pressure continues to dominate the area and winds shift to the south.
1212 AM EDT Thu Jun 23 2022 Cooler and less humid conditions are expected through Friday.
310 AM EDT Thu Jun 23 2022 A cold front moves south of the area this morning. High pressure then builds in for Thursday, remaining on Friday.
440 AM EDT Thu Jun 23 2022 A cold front will stall over the Appalachians today before it dissipates by Friday.
305 AM EDT Thu Jun 23 2022 Multiple boundaries will keep a chance of showers and thunderstorms in the forecast today before high pressure builds in from the Great Lakes, resulting in dry weather for the weekend.
A few degrees cooler today but temperatures still 3 to 5 degrees above normal. Discussion: A weak cold front remains to our north but will drop south out of KY later this morning and should exit to our south later this afternoon. Model guidance has trended slightly warmer for today.
/NEW/ /Through Thursday night/ High pressure will continue to dominate the Lone Star State through the end of the week with plenty of daytime sun and very hot temperatures. After a warm night with lows from the mid 70s to the lower 80s, afternoon highs Thursday will soar into the triple digits for most locations with some readings as high as 104. /Issued 314 PM CDT Wed Jun 22 2022/ /Thursday Night Onward/ Hot and dry weather is expected through the weekend as subsidence continues beneath a mid-level ridge.
This is located along a pseudo warm front lifting back across the forecast area to the north-northeast. Attention then turns to the afternoon/evening hours, as the warm frontal boundary mentioned above stalls over north central KS, somewhere between KSLN and KMHK. A few cams (FV3) even try to develop an isolated supercell or two, along the dryline, as far south as KHUT or KICT, but a slightly warmer elevated mixed layer may keep this chance in check.
Thickness values will also be nudged upwards as the center of the ridge continues to shift closer overhead which will help to increase high temperature values a few degrees over yesterday. East of the escarpment, temperatures will peak in the lower 100s and west of the escarpment in the mid to upper 90s.
High pressure over the region will continue today. Temperatures should be on the rise from here on out, as the high moves east, and we get into return flow on the west side of the state, and an uptick of moisture. Initially, it looked like today could be a critical low RH day for fire weather, and while it will be dry, models are showing more moisture advection in the lower levels for the afternoon. Otherwise, with the moisture increase, and a cold front beginning to move into the Upper Great Lakes during the night, the chance for Showers and thunderstorms begins to increase, especially after 06z/Fri.
Sunny skies for the remainder of the day can be accredited to a system of high pressure situated out in the Plains and, of course, the large upper level High keeping the mid-upper level jet well to our north. Continued clear skies tonight with dewpoints in the 50's means we won't be quite as mild tonight as we were last night with lows tomorrow morning dropping into the lower and middle 60's. Tomorrow will be a carbon copy of today with the High centering itself over the Midwest. Friday night, an upper-level trough currently located over British Columbia will scream southeastward into the northern Plains and kick off convection across Iowa.
High pressure to the west should begin to induce westerly winds beginning tomorrow.
Some isolated showers and thunderstorms continue to move through the high country this evening but storm motions have kept them moving and they continue to weaken as we head into the late evening hours and the instability starts to wane. Skies should clear more tonight and temperatures will be be cooler than they were last night. Synoptically, the influences from a closed low over Southern California is both allowing for the advection of moisture and providing mid and upper level energy across the desert Southwest, including much of Arizona. likely due to the building ridge and no notable feature to steer moisture farther north at a synoptic level. Gusty and erratic winds will be possible near thunderstorms, mainly occurring after 18Z with the highest coverage east of a KFLG- Four Corners line.
329 AM EDT Thu Jun 23 2022 High pressure will extend across the region through Friday, bringing drier but seasonable conditions.
Today and Tonight: A closed upper circulation located across central CA this morning will devolve to an open-wave trough later today while lifting away from the area. This will keep readings a bit cooler along the coast today, but temperatures should still top out mostly in the mid 70s to around 80 in these areas.
Since the center of the mid-upper tropospheric anticyclone was positioned across Oklahoma, shower and thunderstorm activity will maintain a northeasterly forward motion. This will result in much warmer temperatures over a larger region. All the latest guidance continue to support high temperatures well into the lower to mid 100s.
The heat re-intensifies today as the mid-upper level ridge expands and strengthens over TX. At the sfc, high pressure prevails over the Upper TX coast, resulting in light west to southwest winds, shifting then to the south as the high slightly moves eastward. Heat index values will be the highest along and east of I-45 with isolated spots of 108-109 degrees across our far northeastern counties.
A cold front moving through the region is already causing increased southwesterly winds in northwest Montana, which will increase and expand throughout the region today.
1039 PM CDT Wed Jun 22 2022 The synoptic cold front appears to be just south of Reynolds county across southern Missouri. As drier and cooler air continues filtering into the region this evening, even the minimal chance for precip in our south will diminish. Convective debris from overnight storms in the Plains will likely help to suppress temperatures on Thursday, and the relatively cool and dry high pressure system to our northeast should also help to produce highs mainly in the upper 80s. Guidance shows this convection forming into an MCS which rolls east Thursday night along the periphery of the upper level ridge, possibly reaching our northern Missouri counties around 12Z Friday, though most guidance keeps it out of our area until after that time.
1244 AM CDT Thu Jun 23 2022 (This evening through Thursday Night) The hot dome of high pressure aloft will remain the biggest factor over the short term period. We are seeing some isolated thunderstorms this afternoon under the ridge. Expect more subsidence in association with the ridge tomorrow and less depth of moisture to limit any of this isolated afternoon activity more to southern zones tomorrow. Anticipating temperatures will likely peak a degree or two warmer in many areas tomorrow with still enough humidity to bring peak heat index values into the 105-110 degree range in most areas.
Winds, generally around 10 kts, will be out of the north during the afternoon hours behind a cold frontal passage. SR Chattanooga Airport, TN 93 68 93 72 93 / 0 0 10 10 20 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 91 66 90 69 92 / 0 0 10 10 30 Oak Ridge, TN 91 66 91 70 93 / 0 0 10 10 30 Tri Cities Airport, TN 87 60 88 63 89 / 10 0 10 10 30.
1200 AM CDT Thu Jun 23 2022 (Rest of tonight) Light north-northwest flow aloft will persist across the TN Valley overnight, along the edge of a 500-mb ridge centered across the Red River Valley region of northern TX/southern OK.
and Friday Quiet weather will continue today as high pressure slowly drifts southeast of the region. Warmer temperatures will advect into the region behind the departing high pressure system as surface winds turn southwesterly. Warm air advection will continue tonight and Friday as the aforementioned high pressure moves further away from the area. A warm front will lift north tonight and remain across the northern Great Lakes region tonight into Friday. Given the weak forcing and majority of the models remaining dry will keep low end POPs for these periods as model soundings show dry air in the low levels during these periods. Despite the warmer temperatures, dew points are expected to rise into the lower 60s, which should keep heat index values in check on Friday.
344 AM MDT Thu Jun 23 2022 Zonal to slightly southwest mid level flow over the state with an elongated upper low over southwest Canada.
Friday will be hot ahead of the next cold front, which will bring another chance for severe thunderstorms, mainly late Friday evening/overnight with favored areas north of Highway 6 this time around.
Current air temperatures across the islands are in the mid 80s, with dewpoint temperatures in the lower 70s. The large-scale weather pattern features a large, deep, warm anticyclone anchored over the southern Plains, with the Florida Peninsula under its southeastern flank, beneath anticyclonic flow. A deep trough was evolving east of this system over the western North Atlantic.
Warm and windy conditions prevail today in the southwesterly flow ahead of an advancing cold front. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop as the cold front moves through, mainly south and east of a line from around Helena to Havre.
High pressure builds in from the west today as height rises commence and deep layer anticyclonic flow becomes established overhead. After several days featuring temps slightly or well above normal, highs return to near-normal in the lower 80s with dew points in the lower 50s keeping humidity levels comfortable.
It is going to be a completely different story this afternoon as temperatures soar to the mid to upper 90s across all inland areas and coastal Volusia County, and to the lower 90s along the Space/Treasure Coasts.
That was a reference to Vero Beach tying a record low for yesterday's climate date (June 22), where the low just before midnight got down to 68F (tying previous record low for June 22 of 68F set in 2008). It is going to be a completely different story this afternoon as temperatures soar to the mid to upper 90s across all inland areas and coastal Volusia County, and to the lower 90s along the Space/Treasure Coasts.
No significant aviation concern is anticipated as high pressure continues to dominate the region. The heat re-intensifies today as the mid-upper level ridge expands and strengthens over TX. At the sfc, high pressure prevails over the Upper TX coast, resulting in light west to southwest winds, shifting then to the south as the high slightly moves eastward. Heat index values will be the highest along and east of I-45 with isolated spots of 108-109 degrees across our far northeastern counties.
449 AM PDT Thu Jun 23 2022 The passing of a weak cold front will bring breezy winds today with cooler temperatures. High pressure returns Friday and brings a gradual warming trend.
With current highs only in the lower to mid 90s, have opted to raise max temps by 2F across the board, 850 mb temp of 18C from the 12Z sounding do reflect relatively cooler temps for the afternoon compared to prior days.
559 AM CDT Thu Jun 23 2022 High pressure will continue over the central and south sections while a cold front moves into north Arkansas this morning. Today Through Friday Night An upper ridge is centered over Texas and Oklahoma and extends across much of the country. An upper low will track across southern Canada through the period. The upper high will slowly drift east. A weak cold front will move into north Arkansas this morning.
622 AM EDT Thu Jun 23 2022 High pressure will extend across the region through Friday, bringing drier but seasonable conditions.
627 AM CDT Thu Jun 23 2022 (Today and tonight) Hot and dry conditions will remain in place for this afternoon as high pressure remains the dominant feature.
403 AM MDT Thu Jun 23 2022 Warm and windy conditions prevail today in the southwesterly flow ahead of an advancing cold front. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop as the cold front moves through, mainly south and east of a line from around Helena to Havre.
Upper level low is currently passing just to our south early this morning and has brought showers and thunderstorms just to the south of us. This upper level low will continue to push east northeast early this morning. Shower and thunderstorm chances will diminish by the mid morning but the upper level low will become an open way during the afternoon as it pushes into NV and will bring increasing chances once again. Upper level ridge will then build over the west for the weekend.
GNV: 101 in 1998 SSI: 101 in 1944 With dry air just above the surface, dew points will mix down into the lower-mid 60s se GA, upper 60s ne FL, which will keep heat index values in the 100 to 108 range, though locations that keep dew points around 70 or lower 70s will approach 110 heat index. The trough will shift closer towards local waters throughout today.
309 AM PDT Thu Jun 23 2022 The passing of a weak cold front will bring breezy winds today with cooler temperatures. High pressure returns Friday and brings a gradual warming trend.
623 AM CDT Thu Jun 23 2022 (Today and tonight) Hot weather will continue today as a mid-level ridge remains centered across the Southern Plains.
515 AM MDT Thu Jun 23 2022 Broad, low-amplitude upper-level ridging will remain intact across the central Rockies today w/ 500 mb heights remaining at/above 584 dm across the CWA. Expect ridging may begin to break down over the Great Basin into western Wyoming into the mid/late afternoon hours as a mid-level short wave ejects E-NE toward the region. Convection will become more widespread across all of southeast Wyo and the western Neb Panhandle on Friday as the primary trough axis translates from W-E across the CWA. Trending cooler for western zones with the passage of a strong cold front, while the western Nebraska Panhandle may stay quite warm for one more day (highs in the 90s) before fropa occurs late in the afternoon.
654 AM EDT Thu Jun 23 2022 A cold front will stall over the Appalachians today before it dissipates by Friday.
Subtle upper level ridging continues to build over the Northern Plains temporarily bringing back warmer weather into the region. A progressing low level thermal ridge is going to support high temperatures in the low to mid 90s across the state this afternoon. Warmer temperatures are going to be the lifting mechanism for afternoon thunderstorms over western and central North Dakota this afternoon into evening. An upper level low over British Colombia is going to strengthen east of the Canadian Rockies moving into Saskatchewan by Friday. The upper level low will have multiple disturbances round the base of the trough.
525 AM CDT Thu Jun 23 2022 Key Messages: - Warmer, mostly dry today.
79 Previous Discussion: /Through Thursday night/ High pressure will continue to dominate the Lone Star State through the end of the week with plenty of daytime sun and very hot temperatures. After a warm night with lows from the mid 70s to the lower 80s, afternoon highs Thursday will soar into the triple digits for most locations with some readings as high as 104.
Our current synoptic pattern is Arizona is sitting between a closed low over California and a ridge over Texas. This low is forecast to move north of our area by Friday, leaving room for the ridge over Texas to set- up over the Four Corners.
A weak low pressure system will cross the area late today through Friday, interacting with moisture in place to bring a threat of showers and thunderstorms. High pressure will bring a warming trend over the weekend.
A weak cold front is now passing through the forecast area late this morning. The passage of the front will keep temperatures a few degrees cooler this afternoon, more noticeable in the northern third of the region.
550 AM MDT Thu Jun 23 2022 Broad, low-amplitude upper-level ridging will remain intact across the central Rockies today w/ 500 mb heights remaining at/above 584 dm across the CWA. Expect ridging may begin to break down over the Great Basin into western Wyoming into the mid/late afternoon hours as a mid-level short wave ejects E-NE toward the region. Convection will become more widespread across all of southeast Wyo and the western Neb Panhandle on Friday as the primary trough axis translates from W-E across the CWA. Trending cooler for western zones with the passage of a strong cold front, while the western Nebraska Panhandle may stay quite warm for one more day (highs in the 90s) before fropa occurs late in the afternoon.
Skies are expected to stay mostly clear today with little to no chance of sea breeze activity due to subsidence on the backside of the ridge situated over central Texas. Highs will be in the lower 100s out west and upper 90s in the RGV. Friday temps will be a degree or two warmer than today with most of Deep South Texas very close to reaching the 100 degree mark.
515 AM EDT Thu Jun 23 2022 Multiple boundaries will keep a chance of showers and thunderstorms in the forecast today before high pressure builds in from the Great Lakes, resulting in dry weather for the weekend.
635 AM EDT Thu Jun 23 2022 Multiple boundaries will keep a chance of showers and thunderstorms in the forecast today before high pressure builds in from the Great Lakes, resulting in dry weather for the weekend.
High temperatures are still forecast to climb up into the lower 90s this afternoon, good day for the water park or the pool. Subtle upper level ridging continues to build over the Northern Plains temporarily bringing back warmer weather into the region. A progressing low level thermal ridge is going to support high temperatures in the low to mid 90s across the state this afternoon. Warmer temperatures are going to be the lifting mechanism for afternoon thunderstorms over western and central North Dakota this afternoon into evening. An upper level low over British Colombia is going to strengthen east of the Canadian Rockies moving into Saskatchewan by Friday. The upper level low will have multiple disturbances round the base of the trough.
503 AM EDT Thu Jun 23 2022 A deep mean layer ridge persists over the southern Plains and the northwestern Gulf of Mexico, although a little farther west than 24-hours ago. A cyclone continues to spin east of the Delmarva. The mean layer ridge will wander about the Mississippi River Valley for the next several days, giving up its eastern flank to the Bahama bound cyclone currently over the western North Atlantic.
1040 AM EDT Thu Jun 23 2022 High pressure builds in today, remaining on Friday.
509 AM CDT Thu Jun 23 2022 (Today) The surface analysis at 05Z indicated a weak cold front had dropped south into southeast KY through TN into northern AR.
Ridging aloft remains in place with a weak pertabation/wave noted across Colorado. A warm front will sharpen to the east of the low across northern Kansas. Otherwise a very warm day expected, and rather humid as well, with highs in the lower to mid 90s. The ridge aloft axis will shift east of the area with the flow aloft becoming more southwesterly. Several of the HREF members do develop some vigorous convection along the inverted trough, then move the convection eastward into the better low-level moisture/instability centered across north central and central Nebraska during the evening. In addition, a cold front will surge into western Nebraska during the evening and will overtake the inverted trough. Quiet weather is expected this weekend, and cooler as well.
551 AM CDT Thu Jun 23 2022 High pressure will provide fair weather across central Illinois today.
330 AM MDT Thu Jun 23 2022 The center of the upper level ridge will remain over eastern TX with a weak southwesterly flow over CO. Upper ridging on Friday gives way to a weakening upper trough that pushes through the CWA late in the day and Friday night.
1000 AM EDT Thu Jun 23 2022 High pressure will extend across the region through Friday, bringing drier but seasonable conditions.
557 AM CDT Thu Jun 23 2022 Flat upper level ridging will spread across the area today which will result in an increase in southerly winds and humidity. Dew point temperatures are expected to climb back into the lower to middle 60s while highs top out from the upper 80s to mid 90s, with the highest readings in central SD.
Sfc cold front this early morning is currently stretched along the Ohio River. Dew points to the south across central KY remain in the upper 60s to near 70, while to the north, across southern/central IN, dew points were in the low/mid 60s with even a few upper 50s. Temperatures will be at least 10 degrees "less hot" than yesterday, in fact with afternoon temperatures in the upper 80s and dew points in the low 60s/upper 50s it will feel quite pleasant. High pressure slowly slides eastward overnight into Friday morning. This will keep skies clear, winds light and overnight temperatures in the low/mid 60s across the area.
409 AM MDT Thu Jun 23 2022 MORNING DISCUSSION: An upper level trough over the Pacific Northwest will continue to deepen and move across our area bringing afternoon showers and thunderstorms to the region. Precipitation totals with this system are expected to be minimal with the highest totals expected in the western half of the CWA. Looking towards the weekend, the trough will continue to move to the east with the center of the low staying above the international border.
425 AM MDT Thu Jun 23 2022 Current surface map places weak high across the Dakotas Water vapor shows flat ridge from the Rockies to the Upper Midwest with upper trough digging into the Pacific Northwest. supported by latest CAMs Upper trough over Pacific Northwest moves into the Northern Plains Friday. with cold front sliding through the western Dakotas Friday afternoon. Buoyancy/shear favorable for severe thunderstorms along and ahead of the cold front.
The upper trough over British Columbia will keep local conditions cooler than normal, with a mix of sun and clouds today. Once it exits the region, dry and much warmer conditions will prevail as upper level ridging strengthens through the weekend.
606 AM EDT Thu Jun 23 2022 High pressure then builds in today, remaining on Friday.
As of 20Z, satellite trends show an upper level closed low spinning over west central Nevada providing a favorable lifting environment for thunderstorms across central Nevada and farther south into southeast California, southern Nevada, and northwest Arizona. Modest but adequate instability and shear is present east of the closed low which is the reason behind the SPC marginal risk issued today for northern Lincoln county. At the same time, the low becomes less defined and upper level flow becomes less favorable over southern Nevada.
154 PM EDT Thu Jun 23 2022 High pressure builds in today, remaining on Friday.