Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Freeze Warning from 3AM through 9AM Friday morning: Confidence - Medium Below freezing temperatures are expected over Pueblo, Crowley, Otero, Bent, Prowers, Kiowa, and Baca Counties (as well as the rest of the region, but they already had a hard freeze) on Friday morning. Some of the high resolution models have resolved overcast clouds developing overhead, which would keep temperatures a little warmer, but forecast sounding show that the clouds are expected to be high cirrus, which will be less impactful for the overnight low. General Discussion: Another cooler day is on tap for Friday afternoon, with below average temperatures expected over the plains with values in the low to mid 60s, the mountain valleys will be right around average with values in the mid 60s.
837 PM EDT Thu Oct 15 2020 Showers will continue into Friday morning as moisture lingers behind a cold front. High pressure will then dry weather and seasonably cool air this weekend. Cold front has mostly pushed east of the ridges by this point, with NW flow and light rain showers continuing in the cold advection pattern behind the boundary. The trailing jet core is projected to carve a high-amplitude trough over the ern CONUS on Friday. Edging overnight lows towards the lower side of the guidance envelope gets values near or just below 32 degrees for a large portion of the CWA.
/Issued 208 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2020/ Surface winds will relax this evening as high pressure settles over the region. Some of the typically cool valley locations may briefly see freezing temperatures around sunrise.
/issued Issued by National Weather Service Little Rock AR/ A cold front moved through the forecast area today, with cooler, drier air behind.
803 PM EDT Thu Oct 15 2020 An upper low on the west side of Hudson Bay, Canada troughs down the lower Mississippi Valley this evening and is accompanied by a frontal boundary along the Appalachian chain that extends to the western Gulf coast. Atlantic high pressure reaches across FL and over the Gulf and contains an embedded inverted trough on it's south side. The upper trough and boundary work south and east overnight while the high pressure continues nearly in place. During Fri the trough/boundary continues to approach while east and northeast lower level flow advects some deeper moisture into south and interior south- central areas from the inverted trough. These continue as the front treks through and high pressure build in Sat. as the high starts moving east Sun.
312 PM MDT Thu Oct 15 2020 Current surface analysis shows high pressure to the south and west of the area, with low pressure to the north of the Great Lakes. Upper level analysis continues to show a broad trough covering much of the US and Canada, with ridging off the west coast. Strong upper jet is noted within the trough from the northern Rockies to the central Plains.
(This Evening through Thursday) Issued at 316 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2020 The cold fall airmass that overspread the area last night will lead to widespread frost and freezing temperatures tonight.
529 PM MDT Thu Oct 15 2020 Current surface analysis shows high pressure to the south and west of the area, with low pressure to the north of the Great Lakes. Upper level analysis continues to show a broad trough covering much of the US and Canada, with ridging off the west coast. Strong upper jet is noted within the trough from the northern Rockies to the central Plains.
643 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2020 High pressure building behind a cold front will maintain northeast winds around 10 to 15 knots with higher gusts through much of the overnight hours. Otherwise, light winds and MVFR ceilings behind the cold front to gradually improve to dry and VFR after 16/09Z. /Tonight through Friday Night/ Large-scale upper trof continues to occupy much of the CONUS as it slowly churns ewd. Associated cold front continues to drift swd across our area, bringing increasing drizzle/light rain, gusty nely winds, and cooler temps in its wake. Skies across our n should begin to clear late tonight as high pressure builds in at the sfc, so these areas should experience some decent radiational cooling. Clear skies and light winds will allow for chilly temps Friday night, with most areas dropping into the low to mid 40s.
948 PM EDT Thu Oct 15 2020 High pressure will build east into the Ohio Valley tonight and Friday, bringing drier and cooler weather.
1034 PM EDT Thu Oct 15 2020 Water vapor imagery highlights a long-wave trough extending south into the Gulf of Mexico. Mean layer ridging persists across the western North Atlantic, with deep tropical moisture sliding west through the Bahamas, Cuba, and the Western Caribbean. Also, the low level convergence will be limited with winds expected to stay below 10 knots. Boaters should lower biminis and antennae, and approach fixed bridges at the safest navigable speed, noting that clearance beneath bridges will be reduced due very high tides. This boundary will slide southeastward late Friday night as an expansive high pressure ridge builds into the eastern third of the United States.
732 PM EDT Thu Oct 15 2020 Showers will return late this afternoon and tonight as a cold front crosses the area. Showers will be developing later today with the encroachment of a cold front with an amplifying upper trough on the strength of a strong jet core. The trailing jet core is projected to carve a high-amplitude trough over the ern CONUS on Friday. Edging overnight lows towards the lower side of the guidance envelope gets values near or just below 32 degrees for a large portion of the CWA.
620 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2020 A fairly typical fall day across the region, although a bit cooler than normal with most locations in the upper 40s to mid 50s. Overnight lows again dip into the lower to mid 30s.
This is in part with an area of high pressure over our area. In addition, the thermal trough has built into the area, keeping daytime temperatures warm. This thermal trough has also brought east winds with it, and it will work to keep areas (where the winds are blowing) warm and dry overnight. Expect temperatures to be similar to what occurred last night, if not a couple of degrees cooler. Again, this frost advisory is somewhat marginal since we are on the lower side of guidance; but any widespread or heavy frost will be impactful for those looking to complete harvests or establish fall and winter gardens.
The high pressure system over the coastal Carolinas has moved offshore into the western Atlantic, allowing a weak cold front to sink into the FL peninsula.
Cooler temperatures will remain in place Friday, through the weekend, and into the upcoming week. While approaching ridge axis, clear skies, and dew points in the lower 20s all point to a cold night in central Illinois, timing and progression of the ridge axis look to result in increasing wind speeds from the west during the predawn hours Friday resulting in less favorable radiational cooling conditions. Going forecast is also on the cooler side of the solution envelope, close to the 25th percentile, lending to lower confidence in impacts overnight. Dry weather is expected through Friday as a cold high pressure area moves into the area. Overnight lows will get down to below freezing tonight so will continue the Freeze Warning across the entire CWA.
/issued 253 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2020/ A cold front made it's way through our area early this morning, resulting in northeasterly winds that will keep our high temps in the 70's today and tomorrow. The High Wind Warning for the Guadalupe Mountains has also been allowed to expire even though elevated gap winds will continue at Guadalupe Pass though remaining just below High Wind Warning criteria. Cooler NE flow will hold our low temps tonight in the 40's and Friday night in the 50's where they should remain for the coming week.
848 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2020 The cold front has begun to move across northern Alabama this evening as indicated by a clear fine line on reflectivity that stretches from Hytop, AL southwest to Jackson, MS as of 01z. Made some minor tweaks to PoPs and temperatures with this update to reflect current obs of the cold front and the trailing showers. Cooler/drier air should then spread into the area from the north thru the day, as clouds begin to diminish, with afternoon highs struggling to reach the lower 60s. A large dome of high pressure out of the mid/srn Plains will build ewd into much of the region late Fri into Fri night, thereby helping to usher some of this unseasonably cooler air into the area. A longwave upper trough pattern will also become established across much of the nrn CONUS.
Clouds have increased last several hours as cold front moving onto the plateau and about to move into the central valley. Approaching cold front moving into the Cumberland Plateau this evening.
The pacific Northwest will remain underneath the southwest periphery of the large upper level trof that is in place across central and eastern North America for much of the next 5-7 days.
A persistent upper ridge will promote dry weather across the region during the next seven days. In addition, warm conditions will be likely over much of northwest California, including the coast, during the next several days as offshore winds strengthen in response to high pressure building over the Great Basin. A large upper level ridge was positioned over the NERN PAC this afternoon, while downstream NWLY flow aloft was occurring across the West Coast. The offshore wind regime will promote warm temperatures across the region, with highs in the 80s and 90s expected across interior valleys tomorrow, followed by slightly cooler temperatures over the weekend. Thereafter, model guidance indicates patches of marine stratus will begin to impact coastal areas Friday night into the weekend, which may yield cooler conditions.
Placing NBM winds in for that evening also needed a bit of work as areas behind the cold front were not quite high enough. So, there is a lot of uncertainty in precip type for the precip passage tomorrow being so close to the freezing mark aloft. GAH AFTERNOON DISCUSSION: Short term: The big story in the short term of the forecast, through this weekend, will be the cold front and storm system expected to impact the region. The best chances for accumulating snowfall to stick to the ground and road surfaces beyond for a very short time looks to be in the southwestern areas, closer to the higher terrain areas of the Little Rockies/Judiths/Snowies.
509 PM EDT Thu Oct 15 2020 Showers will return late this afternoon and tonight as a cold front crosses the area. Showers will be developing later today with the encroachment of a cold front with an amplifying upper trough on the strength of a strong jet core. The trailing jet core is projected to carve a high-amplitude trough over the ern CONUS on Friday. Edging overnight lows towards the lower side of the guidance envelope gets values near or just below 32 degrees for a large portion of the CWA.
Northwesterly flow aloft prevails across the Intermountain region this evening, downstream from a mid level ridge situated off the Pacific Coast.
1154 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2020 Cold front positioned from KMCB-KHZR at 05Z should clear KBTR between 06-07Z, then through remainder of terminals between 10-11Z.
Latest MAV guidance coming in with lows across the northern valley in the teens, however with late start do to increased sky cover and winds remaining ~10-mph, the slightly warmer blended solution seems reasonable. Overnight, mixing winds should remain at 7 to 12 mph with low temps dropping into the lower to middle 20s. An approaching low pressure system will track into and across the western Dakotas late Friday and into early Saturday morning, bringing a high risk for widespread measurable snow into and across eastern North Dakota and northwest Minnesota for Saturday.
The cold front is presently making its way across SE TX and should be off the coast just after 09Z (based on current extrapolations). The stronger/gusty N/NE winds are also trailing the surface cold front by a bit. /ISSUED 1006 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2020/ Leading edge of cold front situated from roughly Columbus- Huntsville-Lufkin will continue to make gradual southward progress and off the coast later tonight.
Tonight will see temps a degree or two warmer than last night but still expect good radiational cooling with the lack of clouds and light winds, esp the mountains/valleys of central/northeast OR. Broad troughing over the eastern CONUS with upper low over central Canada and ridging over the eastern Pacific. Warmer temps ahead of it with highs in the mid 60s to lower 70s. Saturday should be dry, outside of mountain shower, with slightly cooler conditions in between systems.
This clipper system is quite a bit more potent than the first, with some strong synoptic lift as low pressure moves into southeastern ND/northeastern SD late tonight and into tomorrow.
The cold fall airmass that overspread the area last night will lead to widespread frost and freezing temperatures tonight.
The upper low over central Canada still looks to stick around through the first part of the week before retreating a bit north by midweek. We'll see northwest upper flow give way to a low amplitude trough over the north central US with westerly flow from midweek onward. Can't rule out a brief shower Friday morning, otherwise dry until late Friday night when precipitation develops along a warm front.
The biggest caveat to the development of widespread frost is that the air may be too dry - forecast soundings show pretty dry air in the low levels and most model guidance shows RH up to around 70% at best, with the exception of the more moist NAM. Highs are forecast to reach the low to mid 60s as a result - a few degrees warmer than today. Friday night into Saturday morning, lee troughing develops on the east side of the Rockies with a 45-55 kt LLJ as the surface pressure gradient tightens.
Even with temps in the 40s to low 50s, ice pellets/snow would be possible with some of these showers given the low freezing levels and steep lapse rates. Southerly winds will ramp up Friday night ahead of low pressure forming back in the plains/western Minnesota. Temperatures in the 30s at the onset of precipitation may allow some snowflakes to mix in before warmer air changes things to rain. In addition to the precipitation, winds will be quite gusty on Saturday in the tight pressure gradient ahead of the low. As the low moves through central Minnesota into northern Wisconsin by the evening, a cold front will approach from the west, pushing through during the evening and overnight hours.
201 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2020 The surface anticyclone was being re-enforced this morning as a mid-level jet max moves thru the dry nw flow aloft. Yet another mid-level speed max moves thru the nw flow pushing a cold front to near the TX/OK Panhandles by 06Z/Sun and into the PB around or just before 18Z Sun. The front seems to lose its push sw as the parent anticyclone remains well off the ne.
The main players here are the possibility for an amplification of a Pacific NW ridge by the mid- to-late week period and/or the development of a mid-CONUS trough. As it stands right now, ensemble members for the Canadian/EC/GEFS are split on these outcomes but seem to favor at least the trend towards the western ridge.
This will set the stage for another cold night with lows once again below freezing at most locations. Temperatures will also be warmest in these areas with highs in the lower 60s. A strong cold front will surge southeast across the area behind the low late Saturday afternoon into Saturday night.
148 AM MDT Fri Oct 16 2020 Pattern change in store this weekend as a massive ridge will build into the eastern Pac forcing a large pocket of arctic air south into the CONUS. This will allow for warmer temps, perhaps the warmest day in the next 7 days or more. However, the track of this system has shifted south some given the location of the upper jet and sfc front, with slightly cooler highs that previous model runs have suggested. Strong cold front will advect through the region Sat morning, with strong convergence supporting a decent chance for rain and snow with some accums expected Sat night across the SW 2/3 of the FA.
351 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2020 The synoptic pattern doesn't look to change much over the next several days as the Rex Block off the west coast will persist with a broad trough prevailing over the central/eastern CONUS.
In the upper levels, a trough will be over the region today with nearly zonal flow moving in overnight. At the surface, a dry cold front will move through the region today. High pressure with a cool, dry air mass will move into the region overnight. Highs will be in the lower to mid 80s in Big Bend Florida and South Central Georgia.
The Pacific Northwest will remain underneath the southwest periphery of the large upper level trof that is in place across central and eastern North America for much of the next 5-7 days.
421 AM EDT Fri Oct 16 2020 Following a stretch of mild autumn days, expect a much cooler and damp end to the week with frost/freeze conditions possible in some areas tonight into Saturday morning.
337 AM EDT Fri Oct 16 2020 A cold front will push through the forecast area today with isolated to scattered showers. An upper-level trough will dig into the eastern portions of the CONUS today. The associated cold front will move across the Appalachians and through the forecast area during the near term. The high temperature forecast will be a bit tricky since the front will push through in the afternoon. For northern portions of the forecast area, temperatures may be warmer this morning than during the afternoon. It will be significantly cooler tonight than the previous night.
Precipitation should exit the Pittsburgh metro by daybreak or shortly thereafter as soon as the mid-level trough axis crosses and much drier air is introduced. Deep troughing, with an axis bisecting the Great Lakes, will continue to advect the coldest air of the season into the Upper Ohio Valley and Allegheny Mountains. A fully mixed layer will translate to surface temperatures in the low to mid 50s Fahrenheit for the Upper Ohio Valley and in the 40s for the higher elevations today. with sheltered valleys and other typically- cold or susceptible areas likely going below freezing. Southwest flow and warm advection, along with a strengthening surface pressure gradient, will keep the low-levels better mixed and thus, a warmer night than the previous. Temps will run about 10 degrees warmer than Friday night, for lows in the lower 40s.
A long wave mid and upper level trough over the Central United States southward into the northern Gulf of Mexico early this morning, will dig southeastward and become negatively tilted by late today and early tonight.
Tonight, the aforementioned trough over the eastern Rockies shifts into the Plains region by Saturday. Ahead of this, the WAA on the east side of the trough/front will bring highs into above normal range for most locales before dropping during the late.
A backdoor cold front is expected Saturday night, dropping temperatures in eastern New Mexico, while central and western areas remain warmer than normal. Lows tonight will be about 5-15 degrees cooler than last night, and will be about 5-10 degrees colder than normal over the east. Friday will be a few degrees cooler most areas and still about 5 to 10 degrees cooler than normal. Friday night will be warmer than tonight, especially over the east.
Frost is likely again tonight as temperatures drop into the lower to middle 30s. Saturday will be windy and warmer with highs in the lower to middle 60s.
(Today and tonight) Early this morning, water vapor satellite imagery shows a long-wave upper trough over the Northern U. resulting in northwest flow aloft on the southern periphery of the trough over West Central Texas. At the surface, cool high pressure over the Central Plains is expanding into our region and post-frontal northeast surface winds continue to bring cooler air, with temperatures as of 1 am this morning in the mid 50s to mid 60s, which is generally 15-20 degrees cooler than at this time 24 hours ago. We will see cooler than normal high temperatures today, with highs in the low to mid 70s and mostly sunny skies. Tonight, the surface and 850 mb ridge will move east into the Mississippi Valley, resulting in south flow returning.
135 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2020 Updated for 06Z aviation discussion 06Z TAF discussion: A cold front moving through the region is bringing light rain to some sites this morning. /28/ Surface analysis showed a cold front just south of a line from Natchez to Jackson to Macon. This cold front was well ahead of the anafrontal precipitation that local radars showed over our delta region. The cold front will continue south tonight with a gusty north to northeast wind ushering in a colder and drier airmass. /22/ Prior discussion below: Main story this short term is with the cold frontal passage this afternoon and tonight. Much cooler conditions will exist in the wake of the front. Look for lows from the lower 50s north to upper 50s southeast.
Low-level wind shear will persist at KCDS through sunrise and dissipating thereafter, with roughly 30 kt of LLWS in the lowest 300 ft AGL. Surface ridging was in the northern Panhandle currently and will expand and shift south overnight over the South Plains and then east into North Texas by tomorrow afternoon. Some locations in our northwest zones may drop to the freezing mark overnight, but a widespread frost or freeze is not anticipated at this time, with model consensus above 32 in most spots. Did bump up temperatures a degrees on the Caprock, and wouldn't be surprised if the trend is even warmer for the overnight shift.
1021 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2020 A fairly typical fall day across the region, although a bit cooler than normal with most locations in the upper 40s to mid 50s. Overnight lows again dip into the lower to mid 30s. A strong cold front still looks to be on tap for Saturday although its timing still somewhat in question.
As of this writing, the cold front is now approaching the I-85 corridor and should be south of the forecast area by sunrise. Could see some patchy frost in the normally cooler locations across the north. Even one or two protected areas in the northeast may flirt with the freezing mark. There also could be some patchy river fog with the cooler temperatures and warmer water, so be mindful of that Saturday morning.
This strong WAA will allow temperatures to climb into the lower 70s, but will also create a fire weather hazard with strong sustained winds of 20-30mph and gusts near 40mph. Our area typically does not get winds this high with relative humidities that low too often, so any burning is highly discouraged over the entire area, but especially over central Missouri. A cold front will push through our area Saturday night and extend down into a warm front over northern Oklahoma.
The cold front has begun to move across northern Alabama this evening as indicated by a clear fine line on reflectivity that stretches from Hytop, AL southwest to Jackson, MS as of 01z. Made some minor tweaks to PoPs and temperatures with this update to reflect current obs of the cold front and the trailing showers. Cooler/drier air should then spread into the area from the north thru the day, as clouds begin to diminish, with afternoon highs struggling to reach the lower 60s. A large dome of high pressure out of the mid/srn Plains will build ewd into much of the region late Fri into Fri night, thereby helping to usher some of this unseasonably cooler air into the area. A longwave upper trough pattern will also become established across much of the nrn CONUS.
Models are now in better agreement with the strong cold frontal passage on Saturday, pushing completely through the CWA in the mid to late afternoon. There will be a rather widespread range in temperatures on Saturday - with highs into the mid 60s over parts of northwestern IA out ahead of the front, while behind the front readings will only climb into the lower/mid 50s in the northern/western parts of the CWA.