Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
212 AM MDT Wed Mar 29 2017 08z surface analysis had weak high over the CWA and inverted trough across eastern NE into eastern SD. Water vapour loop showed upper low entering TX panhandle with precipitation shield mainly southeast of the CWA, although some weak returns/-RA noted over south central SD under weak 75kt jet streak aloft. Today, upper low moves northeast with lingering lift exiting the CWA this morning and staying southeast of the CWA this afternoon. Thursday, upper trough splits with main energy diving into the four corners area.
Winds are gentle to moderate from the east/southeast, and temperatures are in the lower 70s. Ridging will continue nearby through the middle and upper levels of the troposphere.
232 AM MDT Wed Mar 29 2017 Low pressure that brought us the widespread rain and snow yesterday now located in eastern New Mexico. Water vapor imagery showing a ridge of high pressure just off to the northwest this morning. Expect this ridge to build over the area through the day with all precip ending by sunrise across southeast Wyoming.
High pressure over the Mid South today will move east tonight as a frontal boundary stalled to our south across central Mississippi into south central Arkansas lifts back north as a warm front on Wednesday. As the warm front lifts north tomorrow, isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop along the front. A stronger closed mid level cyclone will approach the region from the west by Wednesday evening. Instability should be in place behind the departing warm front with MLCAPE values between 500-1000 j/kg and mid level lapse rates in excess of 7. Showers and thunderstorms may linger into Thursday night across the entire area as the closed low moves by to the north.
517 AM EDT Wed Mar 29 2017 Behind a departing low pressure system, a northwesterly flow will introduce cooler and drier air into the region today. High pressure will build into the region for Thursday.
329 AM CDT Wed Mar 29 2017 A low pressure area in central OK will slowly lift northeast, only reaching as far as eastern KS by 00z this evening. The first trend is a slight northward shift in the storm track for Thursday, which allows warmer temperatures, higher instability, and a better risk of a few severe storms over much of the forecast area.
153 AM EDT Wed Mar 29 2017 A ridge of high pressure will build east across the Great Lakes through Wednesday night.
A warm front to our north is producing some showers across the area early this morning. These will continue through roughly noon, then the associated cold front will arrive this afternoon and evening. Meanwhile, snow levels of about 8000 feet will keep snow from falling over all but the highest terrain. The front itself will not be a major wind producer, but as high pressure builds in to our north and west on Thursday, cold air will spill into the region, and the difference between the cooler higher pressure and the warmer low pressure to the south and east will produce a tight pressure gradient, and strong winds will result. Light showers will continue through Thursday afternoon as the upper level trough passes overhead, then the area should clear Thursday night as ridging builds in.
352 AM EDT Wed Mar 29 2017 High pressure near Hudson's Bay will build into our region through Wednesday night.
152 AM EDT Wed Mar 29 2017 Low pressure will move southeast of Long Island tonight followed by high pressure Wednesday through the day Thursday.
603 AM EDT Wed Mar 29 2017 High pressure ridge will build southwest across the Carolinas today then move off the east coast Thursday.
/Tonight through Wednesday/ An upper level closed low within a deep trough will shift East across the Southern Plains beginning tonight through beyond the Wednesday forecast period. At the surface, a low will travel from Texas into Oklahoma with a warm front extending into Missouri by the end of the forecast period. For Iowa, an inverted trough will nose into the West and South as this low travels East. However, in that 09Z to 12Z period, as the forcing comes in and the trough advances, the South and West should quickly saturate and some rain is expected there by 12Z. I went cooler on MaxT for Wednesday then we had going.
547 AM CDT Wed Mar 29 2017 Vigorous upper low nearing the TX panhandle per latest water vapor satellite imagery, with latest sfc analysis showing an elongated area of low pressure over northern TX, with a leading dryline/front extending south through Central TX and a trailing cold front stretching west across north TX into NM. Flat ridging in the wake of the departing upper low will result in quiet weather on FRI, with good rain chances returning late SAT through SUN night with the approach and passage of another upper low. 13 Strong and gusty south winds along with rough seas are expected to persist today as a low pressure area and an associated cold front approach the area.
407 AM EDT Wed Mar 29 2017 High pressure ridge will build southwest across the Carolinas today then move off the east coast Thursday.
Ridging between weather systems will mark the short term.
Near surface moisture values are likely to increase this evening ahead of the main cold front that is prog to push south across the region late tonight. Despite impressive dynamical features aloft /95 to 100 kt H25 jet streak and deep H5 trough/ moisture depth limited to only the lowest 100mb as well as a thin layer around H5 should preclude any precip development.
The 0600Z NAM12 and GFS20 have initialized well with the synoptic scale weather pattern and indicate that a ridge of high pressure will reside over the Intermountain West today and tomorrow morning maintaining dry weather through at least tomorrow afternoon.
Warm frontal precipitation will impact the region today, especially over the higher terrain through this evening. As the upper level trough approaches, snow levels slowly lower late tonight (to around 7000 feet) with significant precipitation expected. The upper level trough begins to split from the parent jet stream and become a closed low by Thursday afternoon. As with closed lows, models have a hard time pinpointing the location center, with some uncertainty.
Within the upper level ridging this afternoon, there is a very weak impulse that may kick off a few showers in the afternoon over western areas.
Satl imagery and KMAF radar is showing that the center of the upper low is just WSW of Lubbock. As the low moves east and the trough axis passes across there could be some convection across the Guadalupe Mtns. No severe wx is expected as temps will be significantly cooler (below normal for a change) which would cut down on the instability. Ridging will move over the Southern Plains ahead of the next system which is in the Gulf of Alaska.
343 AM MST Wed Mar 29 2017 High pressure building across the Desert Southwest will result in a warming trend through Thursday.
The 11 pm regional surface analysis showed a weak, slowing cold front across central AL and GA, and a ridge across the FL Peninsula. Vapor imagery and upper air data showed a ridge over much of the Southeast.
A strong upper level low will continue to become cutoff from the main upper flow this afternoon. As a result convection ahead of the warm front may pose a greater risk for severe weather within areas mostly south of I-70 this evening. This will occur in a highly sheared environment ahead of the cutoff low and easterly surface flow along the warm front will result in 0 to 1 km shear values of 30 plus knots. In addition, LCL heights will remain low given the persistent ample moisture values in the lower levels. Large hail is also possible near the warm front in addition to strong to damaging winds.
423 AM CDT Wed Mar 29 2017 Water water imagery and H5 heights show upper level trough churning across eastern New Mexico and the Texas Panhandle early this morning. An upper level trough deepens as it moves east of the Hudson Bay into Quebec and as a result the ridge over the Midwestern states has slowed its progress east. This in turn has slowed movement of the closed low over the Southern Plains as well. The low will slowly move east and begin to take more of a northern turn as it moves up into Kansas and then onward to Missouri by Thursday evening. Diffuse warm front has been working its way north and currently looks to extend across east-central Oklahoma and west- central Arkansas.
A potent storm system and accompanying cold front will move through the state late Wednesday and Thursday bringing colder temperatures and windy conditions to the region. Quieter weather is expected for the weekend as a ridge builds over the Great Basin. This will bring a few light showers to Humboldt county later today signaling the beginning of impacts from a strong cold front and associated trough. Colder air moving into the region behind a robust cold front late Thursday morning will drop snow levels to most valley floors by Thursday afternoon.
Precipitation will begin to wind down tonight as the upper level low slowly exits the area to the east. Lingering rain showers on the back side of an upper low pressure system Thursday will be winding down from west to east as the system tracks from northeast Oklahoma into southern Missouri. Low clouds look to hold through the day with perhaps just the far west periphery of our area potentially breaking out from the low cloud deck. At the surface, a ridge axis builds south from the Dakotas.
The polar upper trough will still be capable of producing severe thunderstorms over the area and northward but the majority and strongest of our thunderstorms look to be from near the coast southward associated with the divergent area of the polar and subtropical jets. The blow up over the northern gulf and the strong to severe thunderstorms along the cold front will both help to cause some strong subsidence between them.
but the last several runs of the high-res near-term guidance keeps suggesting this activity dissipating by mid-morning before reaching central sections of the state. The warm front will have lifted north of the state by late this afternoon and early evening. but additional SHRA/TSRA will remain possible along the main cold front which will surge east across the state by Thu afternoon.
Radar reflectivity was looking rather high over the Powers Lake area but with the beam near freezing over that area figured some bright banding was occurring. Due to a digging trough over the southern plains and another digging trough off the west coast, our impulse tracks very slowly to the east. With surface temperatures mostly above freezing, do not anticipate any significant freezing precipitation issues. Otherwise, we are expecting highs back up into the lower 50s north central, and the lower 60s over the west central into far southwest ND.
332 AM CDT Wed Mar 29 2017 Water vapor imagery early this morning shows a pronounced upper low over New Mexico with with a plume of mid/upper moisture extending to the north and east with increasing large scale ascent ahead of the wave. 00Z MPX/GRB soundings indicated quite a bit of dry air in place, but continued mid/upper forcing will help to saturate the lower levels through the day.
An area of low pressure over eastern New Mexico will continue to move away from the region, with dry conditions and a warming trend today and Thursday.
625 AM EDT Wed Mar 29 2017 High pressure near Hudson's Bay will build into our region through Wednesday night.
115 AM CDT Wed Mar 29 2017 A warm front located across SRN AR early this morning will continue to lift north overnight. Meanwhile, the latest surface analysis/satellite observations show a clearly defined warm front over southern Arkansas. Warm front forecast to lift to the north with a subsequent increase in deep moisture. As the trough approaches on Wednesday/Wednesday night, strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to develop over eastern Texas along the attendant cold front and move into western Arkansas during the afternoon hours.
The upper low will move over Oklahoma later today, bringing increasing upper-level instability as it passes overhead. The low will finally depart to the northeast Thursday morning, leaving Oklahoma/north Texas with generally cooler conditions (except perhaps a bit warmer in the southwest, where clearing occurs much earlier in the day).
with cloud bases gradually lowering into the afternoon as deeper moisture arrives ahead of approaching low pressure.
A gradual warming trend will continue through today as high pressure builds over the region. Cooler and breezy conditions return on Thursday as a cold front sweeps through the region. The ridge will then rebuild back over the region late in the week resulting in another warming trend heading into the upcoming weekend. Synoptically a ridge of high pressure aloft will combine with warmer temperatures at 925 MB and offshore flow at the surface to bring widespread 60s and 70s to the coast with 70s to lower 80s for inland locations. At the same time cooler air will filter back in along with increasing gradients both at the surface and aloft. Temperatures will be considerably cooler than today -- most spots will be 7 to 12 degrees lower.
On Thursday, as the trough further deepens, a cut off low will develop.
An upper low is expected to move to the east through Kansas or Oklahoma, depending on the model. The models have some slight differences in the movement of the low as it moves east tonight and Wednesday. The upper low is expected to continue to move east into Missouri by Thursday afternoon.
411 AM EDT Wed Mar 29 2017 High pressure near Hudson's Bay will build into our region through Wednesday night.
Lift and mid-level instability associated with the low has already resulted in scattered shower and t-storm development across the western South Plains. The bulk of the lift associated with the low will shift northward into the TX Panhandle by late morning, and after 10 am or so we should see diminishing coverage and intensity of the shower and t- storm activity. Cooler air will move in with a southward-moving cold front as the upper low swings northeast.
406 AM CDT Wed Mar 29 2017 (Today and Tonight) Currently, the upper level low is moving across the Caprock of west Texas. Within the low, sub-severe convection continues to affect parts of west Texas and eastern New Mexico. A cold front will move in behind the overnight storms, resulting in cooler temperatures today. The upper low will move off to the northeast today into northern Oklahoma by the early evening hours. This will take most of the precipitation associated with the core of the upper low northeast. Another cold front will move into the area this evening and turn winds to the north at 10 to 20 mph from the early evening through the overnight hours, with continued dry conditions.
302 AM EDT Wed Mar 29 2017 High pressure will provide for cooler yet seasonable and dry conditions today through most of Thursday.
336 AM EDT Wed Mar 29 2017 Behind a departing low pressure system, a northwesterly flow will introduce cooler and drier air into the region today. High pressure will build into the region for Thursday.
330 AM EDT Wed Mar 29 2017 High pressure near Hudson's Bay will build into our region through Wednesday night.
1124 PM MDT Tue Mar 28 2017 Latest analysis showed the upper low located over New Mexico this afternoon with abundant moisture streaming northward into the forecast area along the east side of the upper trough. Temperatures may cool enough this evening for some light snow to develop over the higher elevations of the Black Hills. Any snow accumulations there tonight would be light, generally an inch or two, with locally higher amounts possible on the highest peaks overnight. The precipitation will gradually end from north west to southeast tonight as the upper trough shifts the southerly flow of moisture to the east of the forecast area. Mainly dry and warmer weather is expected on Wednesday with decreasing clouds and highs on the plains generally in the 50s.
231 AM CDT Wed Mar 29 2017 Upper level low over Southeast New Mexico/West Texas to the southwest of Lubbock is expected to move northeast across the southeast Texas Panhandle this afternoon and into south central Kansas tonight. This track of the upper low should put the northwest half of the CWA in a favorable position for additional precipitation. Still can not rule out some thunderstorms mainly across the eastern Oklahoma Panhandle and much of the northeast and southern Texas Panhandle as the cold core of the upper low moves across. Latest forecast soundings show that in this area only the lowest few hundred feet remain above freezing this morning with plenty of moisture in the subfreezing layer above that. Upper level low pulls away from the panhandles tonight, so a few showers may linger in the northeast CWA after midnight before ending.
Since high pressure aloft will help suppress storms, coverage should remain isolated.
The cold front had already pushed across our terminals, maintaining northerly sfc winds. As the upper low moves off to the east, expecting some additional wrap around rain possible during the afternoon hours, with the entire system out of our area by 00z. Precipitation chances continue tomorrow as the upper low slowly moves over the area.
1233 AM CDT Wed Mar 29 2017 The northland will be under the influence of high pressure at the surface and aloft while a deep long wave trough affects the southern portion of MN and WI. Moisture streaming northward ahead of this low will provide more clouds to the northland which will in cooler temperatures.
Dry weather is expected today as high pressure over the Great lakes will depart the region. Meanwhile a powerful low pressure system over the southern plains will be pushing northeast toward the Ohio Valley.
Continuing the trend on temperatures, earlier clearing should translate to warmer than blended guidance max temps for today. Good midday packing of isobars over the Edwards Plateau should enhance mixing and drop RH values in the low teens along the Rio Grande, while picking surface winds to around 20 mph with gust over 35 mph NW of DRT.
350 AM EDT Wed Mar 29 2017 Low pressure will track out to sea today, allowing high pressure to build in on Thursday.
There remains a low chance for rain/storms generally along and north of I-20 tonight as the upper level low crosses the Plains. The track of the upper level low is now farther north than previous days, so the potential for additional storms tonight looks to be low. A front will move through the region tonight bringing cooler temperatures.
600 AM CDT Wed Mar 29 2017 Water vapor imagery early this morning shows a pronounced upper low over New Mexico with with a plume of mid/upper moisture extending to the north and east with increasing large scale ascent ahead of the wave. 00Z MPX/GRB soundings indicated quite a bit of dry air in place, but continued mid/upper forcing will help to saturate the lower levels through the day.
Dry and warmer weather returns for the weekend. Clear to partly cloudy skies cover the region early this morning as the transient ridge begins to give way to the approaching trough from the Gulf of Alaska. Dry, cooler and breezy to windy weather can be expected on the backside of the system across interior NorCal for Thursday with only a few showers lingering along the northern Sierra crest into the afternoon.
A gradual warming trend will continue through Wednesday as high pressure builds over the region. Cooler and breezy conditions return on Thursday as a cold front sweeps through the region. The ridge will then rebuild back over the region late in the week resulting in another warming trend heading into the upcoming weekend.
158 AM EDT Wed Mar 29 2017 High pressure ridge will build southwest across the Carolinas today then move off the east coast Thursday.
As the period opens, upper level ridging will be over the plains states, situated between long wave troughs to the west and east.
257 AM CDT Wed Mar 29 2017 Upper low was over New Mexico this a.
345 AM EDT Wed Mar 29 2017 Clouds gradually break today as high pressure arrives.
139 AM EDT Wed Mar 29 2017 A cold front will move through the North Country overnight with a chance of rain or snow showers. There will be a slight chance for rain and snow showers on Wednesday, mainly over the high elevations of the Adirondacks and Green Mountains. A ridge of high pressure will build into the region on Thursday with mostly sunny skies expected.
There appears to be a cold bias in the guidance and the warmer temperatures tonight would likely preclude any kind of mix of rain and snow across Wrn Neb tonight. Thursday will be a dry day with upper level ridging briefly taking control ahead of the next system.
Mid level trough will move slowly east today. Mild temps will continue across the region with max temps around 70F across the lower ark rvr valley, with mid 60s on the divides. Isolated showers will be possible this evening over the extreme eastern plains as the trough continues its slow eastward progress. An embedded disturbance is forecast to drop south over the Eastern Plains with a cold front Monday morning.
High pressure over the eastern half of the United States today will head east.
637 AM EST Sun Nov 6 2016 A pesky upper trough over the Northeast and Canadian maritimes this morning will continue to provide the North Country with cloudy skies and areas of drizzle through mid-day before high pressure building over the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley begins to shift east allowing some sunshine to develop this afternoon.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 73 48 74 47 / 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 70 45 71 45 / 0 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 70 44 71 46 / 0 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 66 37 69 43 / 0 0 0 0.
604 AM EST Sun Nov 6 2016 High pressure over the Ohio Valley will move to New England through Monday.
Overview: Large scale upper level ridging and unseasonably warm air spans the central CONUS into the western Great Lakes this morning, bounded by deep troughing in the eastern Pacific and far eastern Canada/New England region. At the surface, persistent large area of high pressure is centered across the Great Lakes into the Ohio Valley.
This activity is associated with a weak impulse in southwesterly flow aloft and indicates a hint of changes to come over the next few days as an upper low over the southern Rockies moves east-northeast into the southern plains. This was keeping light northeasterly winds over the area with dry conditions thanks to dewpoints ranging from the lower 40s central LA to middle 50s acrs lower southeast TX. 6 inches) and interacts with a series of impulses traveling on southwesterly flow in advance of the trough over the southern Rockies. Temperatures will again be warm with highs reaching the lower 80s although cloud cover and showers could limit daytime heating some acrs southeast TX. Showers will increase tonight into Monday as the upper trough enters the southern plains, and precip water values of 1.
The cold front is on track to pass through the region this morning, which will bring some rain, mostly confined to the high terrain. Dry air behind the cold front should put a quick end to precipitation in most places by the early afternoon. High pressure will quickly build into north central Idaho and western Montana tonight. Starting Monday, a ridge of high pressure will again build over the region, leading to dry conditions and mostly clear afternoon skies, except for some high cirrus clouds.
Not much moisture or lift with this feature but will hang onto the low pops/slight chance mention, though NAM profiles are more suggestive of mid clouds/altocumulus.
The center of the high will reside to the east of Illinois, allowing for continued south-southwest winds into the area. Overnight lows will dip back into the lower 40s, with light and variable winds. This wave will start to sharpen early this week, as a broad upper low/wave currently over Colorado tracks into the Plains on Monday.
1013 AM EST Sun Nov 6 2016 High pressure will remain in control of the region through Election Day.