Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
206 PM MST Tue Feb 1 2022 WV imagery this aftn depicts broad NE-SW oriented troughing over the nwrn half of the CONUS, with weak embedded waves shifting through the nrn Rockies/Plains. Under sfc ridging, skies are clear across much of the region; however, local convergence along the srn end of the Black Hills coupled with deeper forcing owing to the passage of a midlevel vort lobe has promoted the development of short-lived snow showers in the Pringle/Custer/Hermosa area. Upper trof becomes elongated tonight into tomorrow, with a sharpening axis shifting from the Rockies into the High Plains. Fairly high confidence in weakening approaching jet streak, with momentum transferring to the downstream side of the trof through tomorrow.
Much cooler temperatures are forecast for the second half of the week.
429 PM EST Tue Feb 1 2022 The surface cold front is passing through the western U. by sunset so the earlier introduced slight chances of precipitation for this low certainty, but possible scenario continue. As a cold front continues to make its way through Upper Michigan late this evening, temperatures will continue to drop, and northwest winds will gust to 35 to 40 mph, especially over Copper Country where gusts in excess of 50 mph will not be uncommon. through the end of the week as high pressure moves through the CONUS.
A slow moving cold front will approach from the northwest through the taf period.
The upper ridge pattern just off the west coast continues. The tail end of a weak front slips down the back of the ridge brushes across the region tonight into Wednesday morning.
Cliff PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: Winds have been slowly trending down over the past few hours so have allowed the High Wind Warning to expire early this morning as the focus switches to the cold temperatures.
435 PM MST Tue Feb 1 2022 WV imagery this aftn depicts broad NE-SW oriented troughing over the nwrn half of the CONUS, with weak embedded waves shifting through the nrn Rockies/Plains. Under sfc ridging, skies are clear across much of the region; however, local convergence along the srn end of the Black Hills coupled with deeper forcing owing to the passage of a midlevel vort lobe has promoted the development of short-lived snow showers in the Pringle/Custer/Hermosa area. Upper trof becomes elongated tonight into tomorrow, with a sharpening axis shifting from the Rockies into the High Plains. Fairly high confidence in weakening approaching jet streak, with momentum transferring to the downstream side of the trof through tomorrow.
High pressure should bring drier and milder conditions this weekend.
Looking upstream, this trough is starting to deepen as it moves through the Great Basin. Latest model runs suggest that the trough will continue to gain amplitude until it passes over our area Wednesday afternoon. As the trough axis approaches, upper level support increases, creating the best lift late this evening into early Wednesday morning. A high amplitude ridge of high pressure will stake its claim over the western U.
Water vapor imagery exhibits the upper level trough lifting and progressing east propelling the heavy mixed precipitation event from the Mid- Mississippi River Valley into the Ohio River Valley. Have decreased tomorrow night's temperatures a couple of degrees area wide due to clear skies and high pressure overhead as well as a few degrees for traditionally colder spots near the cranberry bogs.
In the meantime, rain will gradually switch to freezing rain as early as Thursday afternoon around Clarksville/Dover as sub-freezing surface temperatures follow the fropa. Model soundings continue to point toward freezing rain as the predominant wintry precipitation type owing to a pronounced warm layer just above the surface. However, there may be a lag between freezing surface temperatures and the onset of actual freezing rain owing to a relatively warm surface.
Skies have cleared and wind gusts are at or below 20kts across the CWFA as arctic high pressure noses into the region. Center of 1047 mb high pressure will drop into central ND Wed eve and into far NE SD by Thu AM.
1012 PM CST Tue Feb 1 2022 Skies have cleared and wind gusts are at or below 20kts across the CWFA as arctic high pressure noses into the region. Center of 1047 mb high pressure will drop into central ND Wed eve and into far NE SD by Thu AM.
1048 PM EST Tue Feb 1 2022 High pressure along with relatively dry air will remain over the region today into a portion of Wednesday.
Moisture will continue to advect into the region ahead of an approaching cold front, aided by a potent llj. CDG Chattanooga Airport, TN 56 49 64 40 47 / 80 90 90 90 30 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 57 45 63 38 44 / 60 90 90 100 40 Oak Ridge, TN 55 45 62 35 42 / 80 100 90 90 30 Tri Cities Airport, TN 54 43 60 39 47 / 40 90 90 100 60.
331 AM EST Wed Feb 2 2022 A low pressure system will begin to move into the region today. Developing southwest flow via advancing wrn CONUS-to-Plains longwave trough will maintain warm advection and deepen mstr ovr the OH Valley Wednesday night and Thursday. Pcpn chc wl cumulate in categorical POPs by Thursday as that trough slides ewd.
The persisting high pressure gradually migrates into the west Atlantic through the next couple of days with mainly dry conditions prevailing. The gusty winds may produce some cooler feel to the air this afternoon and evening but things should calm down except for right along the Atlantic coast.
The main upper ridge remains strong in the eastern Pacific along 135W. Latest models and satellite imagery show a short wave trough in the northern Gulf of Alaska this evening moving around the northern periphery of the ridge. The trough is forecast to come into our area Wednesday night with a better chance of snow showers in Baker County and the Idaho mountains north of the Snake Basin, but little if anything south of there.
In the lower levels, strong frontogenesis develops enhancing the overall vertical motions. Regardless, there may be some sleet and freezing rain, mainly across our southern zones as the area transitions from rain to snow. At the surface, a strong high pressure area will be moving southward. There is very dry air associated with this high pressure area that will be advecting into the northern half to three quarters of the forecast area.
A well-defined surface cold front is making steady progress through the region, having now cleared most of Lower Michigan. Meanwhile, a 1050-mb anticyclone is emerging over the Canadian high plains, with steady surface pressure rises observed across the northern Great Lakes as this anticyclone begins a southeastward advance. Aloft, two upper-level jet streaks are noted in GOES water vapor imagery: one over Lake Superior/Ontario, and a second emerging into the southern plains in advance of a western CONUS trough. Freezing levels are lowering in the wake of a cold front, and a consequently, a rain-to-snow transition is expected over the next few hours. We will also carry freezing spray in several of our nearshore zones through Thu night.
347 AM EST Wed Feb 2 2022 A warm up is in store for today with highs above freezing in most areas. A cold front will move southward out of Canada later Thursday with much colder temperatures expected.
108 AM EST Wed Feb 2 2022 The surface cold front is passing through the western U. by sunset so the earlier introduced slight chances of precipitation for this low certainty, but possible scenario continue. As a cold front continues to make its way through Upper Michigan late this evening, temperatures will continue to drop, and northwest winds will gust to 35 to 40 mph, especially over Copper Country where gusts in excess of 50 mph will not be uncommon. through the end of the week as high pressure moves through the CONUS.
By Thursday evening, the upper wave axis moves east out of the High Plains with clearing skies across the entire area as an upper ridge builds over the region. Warmer air will be moving back into the forecast area but any sensible warming will be offset by fresh snowcover.
Meanwhile nrn stream digging out of srn Canada and associated arctic ridge undercutting precip shield across nwrn zones.
The cooler weather pattern will continue through Thursday with on and off chances for light snow showers in the mountains and Idaho Panhandle.
220 AM EST Wed Feb 2 2022 Nighttime microphysics satellite shows the lake effect cloud shield drifting slightly southward as the PBL mean wind becomes ever so slightly more northerly in response to ridging building in from the west. As a cold front continues to make its way through Upper Michigan late this evening, temperatures will continue to drop, and northwest winds will gust to 35 to 40 mph, especially over Copper Country where gusts in excess of 50 mph will not be uncommon. through the end of the week as high pressure moves through the CONUS.
High pressure should bring drier and milder conditions this weekend. However, a warm front offshore will gradually shift eastward and may spread additional light valley rain and foothill/mountain snow into the region Wednesday into early Thursday.
A large positively tilted upper trof spanning the northern Plains into the southwestern states advances slowly eastward through Thursday. A cold front extending from the Great Lakes into Texas likewise advances slowly eastward, and is expected to move to near the western fringe of the forecast area late Thursday afternoon. Highs on Wednesday will be mostly in the upper 60s to lower 70s then highs on Thursday will be in the lower to mid 70s.
Temperatures will continue to fall through the night as Arctic high pressure moving into the region creates strong cold air advection. Cold air advection continues through the Day on Wednesday, with most of western Minnesota remaining below zero and highs only reaching the low to mid single digits across eastern Minnesota and west- central Wisconsin. Thursday's temperatures look similar to Wednesday, although winds will be lighter with High pressure centered over the region.
1236 AM EST Wed Feb 2 2022 A low pressure system will begin to move into the region today. Developing southwest flow via advancing wrn CONUS-to-Plains longwave trough will maintain warm advection and deepen mstr ovr the OH Valley Wednesday night and Thursday. Pcpn chc wl cumulate in categorical POPs by Thursday as that trough slides ewd.
1133 PM EST Tue Feb 1 2022 The surface cold front is passing through the western U. by sunset so the earlier introduced slight chances of precipitation for this low certainty, but possible scenario continue. As a cold front continues to make its way through Upper Michigan late this evening, temperatures will continue to drop, and northwest winds will gust to 35 to 40 mph, especially over Copper Country where gusts in excess of 50 mph will not be uncommon. through the end of the week as high pressure moves through the CONUS.
Temperatures that had fallen into the lower 20s to teens by mid-day, have only risen a few degrees this afternoon. This would suggest low temperatures fall into the single digits above zero, to perhaps near -10 along the Buffalo Ridge. Temperatures struggle to rise above zero over the Ridge, with highs in the teens towards the Missouri River. WEDNESDAY NIGHT: With the core of high pressure sliding just east of the CWA by Thursday night, our surface winds will generally turn to the east. Wind chill headlines may again be needed over the Buffalo Ridge areas into Thursday.
Stout, expansive ridging continues over the western Atlantic waters. The orientation of this feature is such that South Florida is within the southwest periphery of elongated ridging, allowing for the continuation of breezy easterly flow to grace the region, with the higher wind speeds along the east coast (sustained speeds of 10 to 15 mph). Minimum temperatures will remain mild overnight owing to increased moisture/humidity, with minimum temperatures generally in the low/upper 60s along the metros/coasts and mid 50s for the rest of South Florida.
A cold front has moved through our northwest 1/2 of the CWA as of 1 PM today, bringing a transition to cold dry air. I prefer the lower end of the range, as Fgen bands almost always have sharp cut off from high amounts to low.
The upper trough axis begins to swing through tonight and will quickly end any lingering light snow from north to south. Still, highs will remain below freezing with WAA remaining somewhat marginal and limited mixing indicated by forecast soundings. Skies remain mostly clear, with subsidence noted on the backside of the large upper trough axis responsible for today's light snow.
SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday): A southwesterly flow aloft will continue over the region today into tonight as a deep 500mb trough swings over the Four Corners region. A strong cold front across northern Texas this morning will continue to surge south into central Texas by this afternoon. Today will be warm with highs generally in the low to mid 80s, except for the 70s near the coast, under a mix of sun and clouds. The main story continues to be the arrival of a strong cold front that will move through Deep South Texas late tonight into early Thursday morning. In the wake of the front, temperatures will rapidly drop into the mid to upper 40s and the lower 50s Thursday morning and will remain nearly steady or slowly fall through the day as strong cold air advection prevails.
A transition to snow and and mix of sleet and freezing rain began shortly before midnight. Sfc observations show the freezing line roughly parallel to I-44 as 230-300 am. The first "wave" of precipitation is moving through now and this will occur while low level thermal fields continue to support snow over our northern-northwestern cwfa today with a mix of sleet and freezing rain toward the I-44 corridor and just to the southeast.
A winter weather advisory has been issues for this evening through tonight in the Orofino/Grangeville Region and the Lower Hells Canyon/Salmon River Region. Even colder wind chills are being reported in the high terrain right along the Continental Divide, including Marias Pass and MacDonald Pass. Snow showers also linger along the Highway 200/12 and I-90 corridors and in the Bitterroot Valley, so periods of light to moderate snow are expected through daybreak.
A well-defined surface cold front is making steady progress through the region, having now cleared most of Lower Michigan. Meanwhile, a 1050-mb anticyclone is emerging over the Canadian high plains, with steady surface pressure rises observed across the northern Great Lakes as this anticyclone begins a southeastward advance. Aloft, two upper-level jet streaks are noted in GOES water vapor imagery: one over Lake Superior/Ontario, and a second emerging into the southern plains in advance of a western CONUS trough. We will also carry freezing spray in several of our nearshore zones through Thu night.
The main focus in the near term period will be cold temperatures and wind chills as arctic high pressure slides across the area today through Thursday morning. As the high begins to slide off to the east Thursday afternoon, will see a southerly WAA pattern set up, which should allow temperatures to warm nicely across central South Dakota. Our region looks to be dominated by progressive northwesterly flow aloft that will feature a series of clipper-type low pressure systems traversing the region periodically throughout the term.
Even colder wind chills are being reported in the high terrain right along the Continental Divide, including Marias Pass and MacDonald Pass. Snow showers also linger along the Highway 200/12 and I-90 corridors and in the Bitterroot Valley, so periods of light to moderate snow are expected through daybreak.
406 AM EST Wed Feb 2 2022 A strong high pressure ridge continues to dominate the Keys local weather by generating fresh to strong northeast to east winds over the local waters and islands last night. The high pressure over the region will expand and become stronger today, and local winds will turn to the east, then east to southeast tonight. I would not be surprised if a few showers moved through the Lower and Middle Keys this morning. The Keys daytime high temperatures the next several days will be near the upper 70s and the overnight temperatures near the lower 70s. Thursday, an upper-level trough will transverse the Midwest and Middle Mississippi Valley, and at the surface, an arctic cold front will scurry across northeastern Texas and the western Gulf of Mexico.
High pressure has begun to push into the area, bringing with it clearing skies and falling temperatures.
Otherwise, benign and dry weather will persist with a blocking ridge deflecting the storm track away from the Sierra and western Nevada through at least the first half of the month. Wind gusts of 70-110 mph expected along Sierra ridgetops. With this decent cold snap, along with the winds, expect some particularly unpleasant wind chills today as highs are expected to remain in the 30s in lower elevations and 20s elsewhere (teens in the high Sierra). Winds will gradually subside after sunset in the valleys, although elevated ridgetop winds will persist - keeping some turbulence around through Thursday morning.
The pressure gradient will remain tight enough to support higher winds of 20 to 25 mph with higher gusts mainly in the higher elevations this afternoon and evening.
Northwest flow will continue to dominate the pattern over the Northern Plains through the long range period, though temperatures should at least trend warmer with rising heights due to strengthening riding further southwest in in the CONUS.
Presently, as arctic high pressure continues nudging into the region, wind chills have dropped to less than 30 below across most of the forecast area. The main exception remains areas west and south of the Missouri, where temperatures are bit warmer. The high pressure center will be over North Dakota late this afternoon and into the nighttime hours. The period starts out with high pressure over eastern North Dakota that will move off to the east through the day. As a result, cold temperatures will remain over the eastern half of North Dakota through the day, while southerly winds over western North Dakota drive warmer air into the western half of the state.
Northerly winds will be a bit lighter this morning as a weak warm front moves through. A thermal trough pattern will then continue gusty northerly winds and steep seas mostly south of the Cape through Thursday evening.
A cold front will bring areas of snow to eastern portions of Arizona with blustery and cold conditions behind the front for most locations. In advance and along the cold front large scale lift and cooling temperatures will result in deep saturation.
358 AM MST Wed Feb 2 2022 Water vapor imagery shows a vort max pushing through the Dakotas at the moment with a broad upper trough axis extending from MT southward into the Southwest US. As the trough axis pivots eastward, the greatest DCVA and frontogenetic forcing will shift south of the forecast area, clipping the far SW portion of the forecast area.
320 AM CST Wed Feb 2 2022 The main focus in the near term period will be cold temperatures and wind chills as arctic high pressure slides across the area today through Thursday morning. As the high begins to slide off to the east Thursday afternoon, will see a southerly WAA pattern set up, which should allow temperatures to warm nicely across central South Dakota. Our region looks to be dominated by progressive northwesterly flow aloft that will feature a series of clipper-type low pressure systems traversing the region periodically throughout the term.
451 AM EST Wed Feb 2 2022 A low pressure system will begin to move into the region today. Precipitation chances will increase by Thursday as the trough slides eastward.
Winds will remain elevated around 10 mph as the forecast area will reside in the southern pressure gradient of the high. The coldest air arrives Wednesday night as low temperatures will fall to negative teens along the Buffalo Ridge and single digits below zero in the James and Missouri River basins. Locations along the Buffalo Ridge may see wind chills down to -30.
However, dry air continues to dominate the low levels, and have seen just a few observations of flurries and very light snow through 3 AM.
This will cause the temperatures to plummet with highs mainly below freezing with only a few spots around freezing for today. Thursday will be much of the same just a little warmer with highs around to just above freezing.
Cooler and windier conditions have moved in behind yesterday's cold front. Combined with the gusty winds, wind chills will be in the low 40's during the day and fall into upper 20's tonight (*shivers*).
This will, hopefully, change in the next few hours as the upper level trough continues to dig down into our area and increases lift. Current satellite is showing a very distinct line of clouds/no clouds and as the trough moves through, this line will get pushed to the south and east. High temperatures will be cooler today as the trough moves through and northerly flow on the backside of the trough brings in colder air from the north. Dry conditions move back in on Thursday as a high amplitude ridge of high pressure sets up just off the West Coast. A high amplitude ridge of high pressure will remain over the western U.
Even in warmer areas to the southwest, wind chills are still 15 below or less for the most part. Presently, as arctic high pressure continues nudging into the region, wind chills have dropped to less than 30 below across most of the forecast area. The main exception remains areas west and south of the Missouri, where temperatures are bit warmer. The high pressure center will be over North Dakota late this afternoon and into the nighttime hours. The period starts out with high pressure over eastern North Dakota that will move off to the east through the day. As a result, cold temperatures will remain over the eastern half of North Dakota through the day, while southerly winds over western North Dakota drive warmer air into the western half of the state.
921 AM EST Wed Feb 2 2022 High pressure continues to dominate the South Florida weather pattern today. Stout, expansive ridging continues over the western Atlantic waters. The orientation of this feature is such that South Florida is within the southwest periphery of elongated ridging, allowing for the continuation of breezy easterly flow to grace the region, with the higher wind speeds along the east coast (sustained speeds of 10 to 15 mph). Minimum temperatures will remain mild overnight owing to increased moisture/humidity, with minimum temperatures generally in the low/upper 60s along the metros/coasts and mid 50s for the rest of South Florida.
Outside of the heavy snow associated with the convergence, light snow will continue due synoptic ascent associated with the upper level trough and east to southeast upslope flow. We are expecting hazardous wind chill across much of northeast Colorado Thursday morning, below -25 F on much of the plains and below -35 F in parts of the high country, but have decided to hold off on wind chill highlights until the Winter Storm Warnings and Winter Weather Advisories that already cover most of the forecast area are expired. Afternoon high temperatures will stay in the teens and lower 20s across the plains and single digits and teens in the high country.
A weak warm front moving across the area today will result in MVFR conditions and light showers along and near the Coos County coast, into the Umpqua Basin, and across northern Klamath and Lake counties mainly this morning, but lingering along and near the Coos coast through the afternoon. Northerly winds will be a bit lighter this morning as a weak warm front moves through. A thermal trough pattern will then continue gusty northerly winds and steep seas mostly south of the Cape through Thursday evening.
230 AM MST Wed Feb 2 2022 Water vapor imagery shows a vort max pushing through the Dakotas at the moment with a broad upper trough axis extending from MT southward into the Southwest US. As the trough axis pivots eastward, the greatest DCVA and frontogenetic forcing will shift south of the forecast area, clipping the far SW portion of the forecast area.