Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
416 AM CDT Tue May 11 2021 Upper low over UT/CO this morning has a trough that extends southward to Mexico. As the low weakens this trough will cross the Rockies today and lose most of its definition as it moves onto the plains tonight. On Wednesday an upper ridge will build across the Western US with a weak remnant of the trough on its east side.
An approaching trough will initiate numerous SHRA/TSRA, especially by this afternoon, and coverage/intensity should peak during the late afternoon.
A few showers/low clouds may linger over the northern tier near the coldest temps aloft associated with fairly potent s/w trough moving into northern New England. Clear to partly cloudy conditions expected for tonight with lows in the low 30s to around 40F. A northwest wind averaging 6-11 mph (with some gusts into the teens) should preclude frost formation with readings bottoming close to freezing over the western Alleghenies. High pressure builds in for midweek yielding dry weather, with more mild high temperatures.
/ISSUED 528 AM MDT Tue May 11 2021/ Broad upper level troughing currently lingers across MT and WY to the south of an upper level high centered over SK.
940 AM CDT Tue May 11 2021 Summary: High pressure over the region will keep things warm and dry over the next several days. Today marks the start of our warming trend thanks to an upper level low moving east away from the Northland and ridging pushing in from the west. Cooler temperatures will still permeate from Lake Superior keeping the shorelines in the 50s.
525 AM EDT Tue May 11 2021 High pressure will result in dry conditions and below average temperature the majority of the week. providing a better setup for radiational cooling and temperature dropping to at or near freezing. In coordination with surrounding offices,a Freeze Watch was issued the ridges southeast of PGH. Dry conditions continue Wednesday with high pressure in control.
739 AM EDT Tue May 11 2021 Nearly zonal flow continues over much of the Gulf of Mexico region today as Atlantic high pressure ridges through FL to the Gulf. Atlantic high pressure over the Gulf waters. shifts away Thu as a cold front with showers and thunderstorms moves in then departs Fri. High pressure builds in for the weekend.
541 AM MDT Tue May 11 2021 The H5 trough continues across the southern half of the state this morning, continuing to produce showery weather across the state. First area will be associated with the trough itself tracking along the I-80 corridor this morning. As the trough departs east, diffluence and northwesterly flow build across NW WY this afternoon, with a final round of rain for valleys and snow for higher elevations. The ridge will still be to the west of Wyoming, with northwest flow across the state.
Temperatures will be several degrees warmer then yesterday with highs in the 70s.
502 AM EDT Tue May 11 2021 A weak cold front over Northwestern PA early this morning will drift southeast across the state today, possibly accompanied and followed by a brief shower or two.
Low pressure over the Great Lakes and ridging over the Gulf was creating mostly zonal flow aloft across NC this morning. Surface obs showed the cold front was pushing south into southern central NC, with northeasterly flow and lower dewpoints behind the front. Highs will likely be the lowest across the southern half of the region where rain will fall most of the day.
729 AM EDT Tue May 11 2021 A weak cold front over Northwestern PA early this morning will drift southeast across the state today, possibly accompanied and followed by a brief shower or two.
Elsewhere it will be sunny with warmer afternoon temperatures for most interior locations.
Early this morning a mid level trough was located over the central Rockies with profilers showing embedded energy ejecting out across Kansas and another wave upstream in western Colorado at 08Z. For today this area of mid level frontogenetic forcing will move eastward as the mid level trough shears out as it moves into the Plains this afternoon with energy ejecting eastward across Kansas. This will focus the light precipitation mainly south of I-70 this morning with the higher QPF expected along and south of Highway 56 where up to a quarter of an inch of rain is possible.
610 AM CDT Tue May 11 2021 Summary: High pressure over the region will keep things warm and dry over the next several days. Today marks the start of our warming trend thanks to an upper level low moving east away from the Northland and ridging pushing in from the west. Cooler temperatures will still permeate from Lake Superior keeping the shorelines in the 50s.
306 PM CDT Tue May 11 2021 Tonight and tomorrow: Early afternoon water vapor imagery continues to depict a trough axis sliding out of the Rockies and into the Central Plains. Further east, over the Lower Mississippi Valley, predominately zonal flow aloft remains in place with a stalled cold frontal boundary draped across northern portions of the CWA. Locally heavy rain will also be possible with the highest totals expected over southern portions of the area where low- level ThetaE air and instability will be maximized.
High pressure over the east will bring continued cooler than average temperatures, light winds, and dry conditions today. Winds will become breezy out of the south overnight with a tightening pressure gradient as the high exits to the southeast. The southerly flow on Wednesday will help draw up enough llm, though, to push min RH into the 35 to 45 percent range and will help keep fire danger from climbing above the high category.
The low-levels are expected to remain saturated within the lowest 200 millibars to support the formation of light drizzle tonight, and with relative humidity already in the 90-100 percent range, areas of fog will persist through at least sunrise tomorrow as well. The low stratus deck will begin to lift late tomorrow morning and into the early afternoon hours as near-surface vertical mixing begins to increase as winds veer to the east and weaken.
This front is being pushed by a large high dipping south from the High Plains. Meanwhile, aloft a flattened mean layer ridge over the eastern Gulf of Mexico continues to push east over our region.
Currently, an upper low continues to slowly progress southeastward through the northern Plains. This low will finally begin to exit the area overnight though cloud cover will remain in its wake. Uncertainty revolves around how long the low clouds will remain. Warm advection begins tomorrow morning at H85 and should lead to temps a few degrees warmer area wide. General upslope flow through the afternoon could lead to a few thunderstorms over the higher terrain off to the west.
NW gradient flow will preclude frost formation; however advective cold could bring sub-freezing temps into the Laurel Highlands and some parts of the NW Alleghenies. We issued a freeze watch given the low confidence/uncertainty at this point, and the evening shift can upgrade to freeze warning if needed. High pressure will provide fair and dry wx on Wednesday. There will still be a relatively cool NW breeze, but max temps will be a few to several degrees warmer than today (Tuesday).
1154 AM CDT Tue May 11 2021 High pressure sets up shop for the next few days, promising some mostly sunny and quiet (dry) days.
This convection is occurring near a weak perturbation shifting E across SE AR/Ern LA, although new redevelopment is occurring farther W across E TX/SE OK within a region of increased overrunning S of the H925 trough along the Red River Valley of Srn OK/N TX to along the AR/LA border. Farther W, a large elevated MCS continues to propagate E into N TX/much of OK, just ahead of upper troughing now progressing E into the Cntrl Plains from the Rockies, which has tapped additional moisture from the Srn Pacific. Thus, the increased PVA will result in more numerous convection filling in this afternoon across much of the region, with the heavier rain rates being focused near and N of the H925 trough which should gradually sag SE into NE TX and remain across Srn AR.
Tonight will be the coldest of the next two and with many locations expected to dip below freezing again have issued a Freeze Warning areawide. Temps on Wednesday night should be a few degrees warmer but still cold enough for frost, although a freeze is possible again near and north of U.
High pressure anchored over the Upper Midwest is providing a cool/dry northeasterly flow across central Illinois this morning. There could be a brief period of sunshine today as the upper-level trough axis pushes south of the Great Lakes and a ridge begins to build into Central Illinois, but we are anticipating sunshine to be filtered through much of the afternoon with the region placed in between a pair of upper-level disturbances.
306 PM EDT Tue May 11 2021 Strong high pressure in place across the central United States will be the primary influence on our weather through the workweek. A weak disturbance will pass across the northern portions of the forecast area through Wednesday morning, and a couple weak systems will approach the area this weekend as the High slowly weakens and shifts offshore. Best chances will be in the far western zones, where PoPs will be in the low chance range. Will also carry low chance PoPs in southern Delmarva and extreme southeast New Jersey, as the trough will linger over that area through the late evening hours. Given the position of the High a dry NW flow will prevail Wed/Thu, with temperatures slowly moderating through the period but still remaining 5-10 degrees below normal (i.
357 PM CDT Tue May 11 2021 The center of high pressure will continue to slowly move away from the region overnight and into Wednesday. Light southerly winds overnight should be just enough to prevent lows from falling below freezing. A slight increase in the overall 850mb temps combined with the extra mixing should allow for temps to be a few degrees warmer than what we saw today. RH on Wednesday looks to fall into the 20 to 30 percent range across most of the CWA, with the lowest readings across the far eastern portion.
Highs on Wednesday will be slightly warmer than Tuesday due to plenty of solar insolation with little cloud cover expected, albeit still below normal.
As we move forward, we will be seeing a weak inverted trough moving eastward across the deep south tonight.
Cooler and relatively drier air remains north of the front, while warm and humid air is present across southeastern counties. A longwave trough will then deepen over the eastern CONUS Wednesday night, finally drying everyone out across much of the southeast.
1229 PM CDT Tue May 11 2021 Early morning water vapor imagery shows an upper level low sitting over the Great Lakes, with a weak local jet max ejecting out of Colorado. The cooler air brought down by this high pressure is leading to early morning temperatures in the mid to lower 30s, which will be quick to rebound once the sun rises due to the dry airmass over the region.
Meanwhile, light offshore flow persists across the interior where temperatures are likely to max out in the mid/upper 80s with a few spots reaching into the lower 90s. Meanwhile, temperatures across the interior will remain well above average with high pressure aloft. Look for temperatures to cool back to near seasonal averages by late week as the mid/upper level ridge begins to flatten and more zonal flow develops aloft. Forecast ensembles then indicate a mid/upper level trough and associated low will drop southward down the West Coast this upcoming weekend. This feature will likely further deepen the marine layer resulting in more widespread night/morning clouds along with cooler daytime temperatures.
Overnight lows should be in the lower 50s, although a few upper 40s could occur in spots, especially the higher elevations and in southern TN.
308 PM EDT Tue May 11 2021 A cold front will cross the region. High pressure will build toward the region Wednesday, with the high building overhead during latter portion of the week. A cold front will usher in cooler and drier air into the region but not before scattered rain showers develop over the region and move off toward the east. An upper low to our north will move off toward the east Wednesday. High pressure will build toward the area from the Great Lakes. The combination of building high pressure and zonal flow aloft will lead to mostly sunny skies. As high pressure builds closer still Wednesday night, wind may go weak enough for some spots to decouple. As a result, frost/freeze headlines may potentially be needed again to the west of the Blue Ridge.
Quiet weather persists over the region into late week, with high pressure in control. A gradual warming trend towards near-normal temperatures is expected by the end of the week through airmass modification and eventually a developing light southerly wind, as the high begins to shift slowly east late week. For the upcoming weekend we may see shower chances return, as a few upper level disturbances crest the northern Rockies ridge and dive into the central CONUS. High pressure will provide VFR conditions through Wednesday.
Warmer temperatures tomorrow may bring some weak instability to the area. High pressure will allow for a pleasant day.
250 PM CDT Tue May 11 2021 Clearing skies and diminishing winds will lead to a cold and frosty night across central Illinois as low temperatures dip into the lower to middle 30s. High pressure anchored over the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes continues to provide a cool/dry northeasterly flow across central Illinois. allowing lows to dip into the lower to middle 30s. After a cold/frosty morning, abundant sunshine will boost highs on Wednesday into the lower 60s.
Dry conditions continue Wednesday with high pressure in control.
As an upper level jet exits the region convergence within the jet entrance will aid the development of upper level ridging that looks to maintain its position over the next 48 hours. This confluence aloft along with some slight CAA in the low levels will continue to build high pressure at the surface, influencing our dry and stagnant temperature pattern. Subsidence and CAA will help lower surface moisture overnight with dew points expected to be in the low 30s. For tomorrow, high pressure will continue to build. Expect highs in the low 60s, with some areas exceeding 65 in far southern central Indiana. Frost will once again be on concern tomorrow night, but the higher surface temperatures should make it slightly more difficult to reach the necessary temperatures for frost formation.
132 PM EDT Tue May 11 2021 High pressure will build into the Ohio Valley today as a weak mid-level disturbance provides mostly cloudy skies. A weakening mid-level disturbance will ripple through the base of a Great Lakes-centered longwave trough today. The airmass will moderate ever so slightly to favor afternoon high temperatures in the low 60s.
Cooler conditions remain in place across the region early this morning. Lows will fall into the upper 30s to the lower 40s early this morning. Highs this afternoon will once again only warm into the upper 50s to the lower 60s. Clouds will remain over the area tonight into wednesday morning and will limit full cooling, but below normal temperatures will still occur as lows in the lower to upper 40s occur. The cooler below normal conditions will occur again on Wednesday as highs warm into the lower to middle 60s.
(This evening through Wednesday) Only some light rain remains over portions of western north Texas and southeast OK this afternoon behind the cold front. Northwest flow aloft will be overhead through most of the area through the remainder of the week, until a broad ridge sets in later this weekend.
300 PM CDT Tue May 11 2021 247 PM CDT High pressure ridges in over the next few days, keeping us dry and mostly sunny other than fair weather cumulus. High pressure will be stationed nearly on top of us overnight, leading to very light to calm winds. Continued sunny skies will allow high temperatures to climb a bit higher into the lower to mid 60s on Wednesday, except for near the lake, which will remain in the mid 50s. Nevertheless clear skies will allow several locations to radiate into the 30s again Wednesday overnight, especially locations that tend to be cooler.
Frost is possible again overnight, generally in a sliver of northeast Nebraska where early morning lows are forecast to bottom out in the low to mid 30's.
Temperatures remain warmer than last night and that will limit widespread frost for most of the area, but a frost advisory was collaborated with neighboring offices for our southeastern most counties across southern MN and west central WI. Wednesday will feature similar weather to today, albeit slightly warmer with highs in the low to mid 60s. Warmer temperatures will cause the RH values to fall into the 20-30 percent range Wednesday afternoon. For Wednesday night, low temperatures only fall into the low to mid 40s, effectively ending the frost/freeze concerns for our area for the foreseeable future.
1202 PM CDT Tue May 11 2021 As a weak cold front continues to slowly slide south across the region today, it will usher in a reinforcing shot of slightly cooler air. Expect mostly sunny skies on Wednesday with highs in the low to mid 60s.
There will be a cold front dropping into the CWFA overnight tonight, which will likely bring strong to severe thunderstorms and subsequent beneficial rainfall for much of the area through Wednesday evening.
245 PM CDT Tue May 11 2021 WV imagery shows yesterday's Baja trough moving into central Texas, with a line of convection along with it. Upstream, a minor trough is digging through the Rockies, and will give West Texas and Southeast New Mexico another shot at rain overnight. For the time being, the warm sector encompasses the lower Trans Pecos, and this will be the focus for severe activity again this afternoon. As it does, models hint at convection developing in upslope flow against the higher terrain out west, then moving back east. Wednesday looks to be our coldest day, w/the lower terrain banked in stratus and remaining in the 60s most locations.
Currently, surface ridging sliding just north of Iowa this afternoon with cool easterly flow across the state. The high settles southeast overnight across northeast Iowa and southern Wisconsin. Wind flow is expected to be light and variable in the northeast near the center of the high along with clear skies. Farther west, light south winds are expected overnight which should help buoy readings at slightly warmer levels.
It may be difficult to scour out low stratus and fog along & east of I-80 Summit this afternoon, with better chances for showers & iso- lated thunder to the west as pocket of cooler air aloft steepens lapse rates with SBCAPES approaching 600 j/kg. Snow showers are expected to gradually decrease in both coverage & intensity over the next several hours as the trough axis pushes to the east of the area while rapidly weakening through the day.
Wednesday will feature highs in the lower to middle 70's inland, with middle to upper 70's along the coast.
1138 AM MDT Tue May 11 2021 Snow showers are expected to gradually decrease in both coverage & intensity over the next several hours as the trough axis pushes to the east of the area while rapidly weakening through the day.
247 PM CDT Tue May 11 2021 247 PM CDT High pressure ridges in over the next few days, keeping us dry and mostly sunny other than fair weather cumulus. High pressure will be stationed nearly on top of us overnight, leading to very light to calm winds. Continued sunny skies will allow high temperatures to climb a bit higher into the lower to mid 60s on Wednesday, except for near the lake, which will remain in the mid 50s. Nevertheless clear skies will allow several locations to radiate into the 30s again Wednesday overnight, especially locations that tend to be cooler.
343 PM CDT Tue May 11 2021 A trough is positioned over the Northeast with a wave over Texas/Oklahoma and a ridge over the middle of the CONUS or north of the southern wave. Highlights: 1) Cool continues Wednesday 2) Precipitation chances thru mid day Wednesday 3) Warmer at the end of week Change: Precipitation chances The cooler air sticks around for another day on Wednesday with high temperatures once more around 60 degrees. Scattered showers remain possible into mid day Wednesday with minimal if any accumulation given the low chances.
The higher elevations could still see another inch or two of snow before the precip shifts east and southeast of the region overnight. Any potential for snow in the higher elevations on Wednesday will be on the light side and brief. Behind the trough that is bringing scattered showers and thunderstorms and cooler temperatures through the middle of the week, will be very weak ridging and temperatures warming up into the weekend. Both the GFS and ECMWF prog what we like to call a "dirty ridge" scenario through the period. With the weak ridging in place, also expecting mainly light winds through the period.
215 PM EDT Tue May 11 2021 Our stretch of cooler than normal weather will soon come to an end. then a relatively sharp trough will drop through the forecast area. Expansive high pressure centered over the Upper Great lakes will promote fair weather Wednesday and Wednesday night. High pressure will support mainly fair dry weather through the period.
The approach of the upper trough will enhance the ongoing advection of cold air into western and north central New York (850 mb temperatures approaching -4C). Scattered showers may linger across eastern portions of the area tonight as the upper trough axis swings through. A mid level trough remains across the Northeast and eastern Great Lakes region Wednesday. A northerly wind will continue Wednesday however warmer temperatures expected with highs in the upper 50s to around 60, low to mid 50s across the higher terrain. High pressure will be situated across the Mid-West into Wednesday night. There is a chance for patchy frost mainly across the higher terrain as temperatures will fall to the mid 30s. Temperatures will be warmer across the lower elevations with lows in the upper 30s to around 40.
1140 AM MDT Tue May 11 2021 The H5 trough continues across the southern half of the state this morning, continuing to produce showery weather across the state. First area will be associated with the trough itself tracking along the I-80 corridor this morning. As the trough departs east, diffluence and northwesterly flow build across NW WY this afternoon, with a final round of rain for valleys and snow for higher elevations. The ridge will still be to the west of Wyoming, with northwest flow across the state.
Tonight and Wednesday High pressure will settle in across the western Great Lakes region tonight and Wednesday. Wednesday looks to be a bit warmer with some modest warm air advection and a bit less clouds as the high starts to drift east.
305 PM EDT Tue May 11 2021 Cool NE low-level flow persists over the Ohio Valley with Canadian high pressure centered over NE Iowa as of 18Z. Seeing a decent amount of Cu and even a mid-level ceiling along and north of I-64 in response to a reinforcing cold front pushing south into the Ohio Valley. Plenty of sunshine on Wednesday as the high settles into the Great Lakes. Even going toward the higher end of temp guidance only gets us into the lower/mid 60s, which is 10-15 degrees below normal this deep into May.
Overall, high pressure will dominate this period with another chilly night in the works. Given the evolving light winds with the high drawing even closer and clear skies will hoist another frost advisory.
335 PM EDT Tue May 11 2021 High pressure will build from the west across the area tonight through the end of the week. High pressure will build in from the west across the area later tonight and persist through Wednesday night, resulting in pleasant weather on Wednesday, albeit still below average in the upper 50s to lower 60s.