Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Cloudiness will start to thin out some in the afternoon, but with the cold air starting to advect in, most locations have already seen the high for the day.
Temperatures have warmed above freezing on their way to the mid 50's by this afternoon beneath clear skies. The east coast trough remains in place this morning with high pressure at the surface stretching from the Rockies to the gulf. Canadian high pressure will remain in place and the northwest flow aloft will keep the dry airmass over the region, so after the past few dreary days expect to see plenty of sun.
Currently the area is becoming dominated by the encroaching cold air mass as high pressure builds from the west. Cold front will move Southeast of area waters this morning. High pressure will build from the West this afternoon.
451 AM CST Sat Dec 9 2017 An upper level trough and front are pushing through the region early this morning. A colder air mass will spread over the region again today behind the front, as highs range from the middle 30s across central Missouri to the lower 40s across southeastern Kansas and far southern Missouri.
Ltst analysis shows the cold front has pressed through Martin County as of 9 AM. Skies will rapidly clear out early as axis of mid level trough aloft passes. A wind chill advisory may be necessary early Sun morning for values in the lower-mid 30s. Hazardous boating conditions with strong and gusty west/northwest winds kicking in behind cold front which will move southeast of the waters this morning.
1008 AM EST Sat Dec 9 2017 Low pressure, located just east of Cape Hatteras early this morning, will track northward today, paralleling the coastline.
Regional high pressure will have breezes dying out to calm shortly after sunset tonight.
This pattern will also keep the Panhandles dry while a pair of cold fronts traverse the area. Our first cold front is expected to sweep across the Panhandles for the start of the workweek.
We will have a period of clearing through the late morning and mid afternoon before the upper trough over IL/IN/KY moves in, bringing cold temps aloft that will produce scattered snow showers.
GAH PREVIOUS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION: The weather this weekend will be dominated by strong high pressure embedded within the strong ridge anchored over the mountain west. Strong ridging remains anchored over the west, keeping conditions generally pleasant and dry. However, confidence is increasing that some small amplitude troughs will push through the northwest flow and move over northeast Montana. SYNOPSIS: An upper-level ridge anchored by high pressure centered over California will continue mild & mostly clear conditions locally over much of the weekend.
729 AM EST Sat Dec 9 2017 Low pressure, located just east of Cape Hatteras early this morning, will track northward today, paralleling the coastline.
157 AM EDT Fri Sep 22 2017 A mid to upper level trough will linger over the eastern Carolinas through the end of the week. Sheared remnants of the weak upper level low will linger across eastern NC as we begin to feel increasing influence of the strong mid-upper level ridge centered from the southern Plains to the Great Lake region. General troffing in the wake of Jose is pressed south as high pressure over the Great Lakes ridges south and drier air builds in for the upcoming weekend. This high pressure looks to remain over the area through the extended, pending any westward deviation in the forecast track of Maria, which is still progged to remain well offshore.
Satellite imagery this evening shows closed mid-upper level low developing over the Great Basin within the SW extension of an elongated trough that extends NE into central Canada. Precipitation is increasing over SE ID and northern UT under favorable dynamics ahead of the low and this should translate north into SW MT over the next 3-6 hrs and continue to expand north into central MT after 09-12z as the closed mid level circulation drifts north into central ID. Surface boundary also noted moving south across N-central MT this evening, to supply some additional low level cooling as N/NE flow in the low levels increases over the forecast area. High temperatures are expected to be only in the 40s but warmer and drier conditions return for the weekend.
Upper level pattern remains rather amplified with a large long wave trough west of the Rockies, ridging through the central U. and then weak troughing over the Carolinas and SE U. With the moisture axis moved west and perhaps a bit more sinking motion from the ridge, best rain chances today will be from Bay City to Columbus westward. The upper level pattern remains amplified with the trough over the Rockies but the ridge completely breaks down with the trough over the Carolinas retrograding towards the Mississippi River Valley.
At the beginning of this period, we are under a rare northeast flow aloft, between high pressure to our west and northwest over the Miss Valley and a trough to our east associated with tropical system Jose. Short-range models show some deep convection developing today over the high terrain near the TN/NC state line during the afternoon heating, but with the flow from the northeast, much of this convection/precip will stay over this high terrain, riding down the ridgeline.
Moisture will continue to increase Saturday with the closed low dropping south into southern NV and the main area of uplife shift to the front range. The relatively deep closed low pressure system is expected to continue to impact the region during the latter part of the weekend.
409 AM MDT Fri Sep 22 2017 A combination of satellite and upper atmospheric observations shows an extensive upper-level trough encompassing much of the western US early this AM.
This development will not last long though, as the low-level convergence weakens by daybreak and the upper jet travels SSW away from the area. Deep high pressure will continue to dominate the weather for the Midwest today and Saturday. Models are in excellent agreement, having the large ridge keeping our weather hot and dry. That pattern does look to break down by the end of the period though, as our ridge gets pushed south and east by the next trough.
238 AM CDT Fri Sep 22 2017 Wx map shows weak high pressure over the Southeast U. Increased moisture from the Eastern Gulf coupled with an deepening upper level low over the Southeast U.
A cool low pressure system will continue to lift northward into north central Idaho through this morning.
Early morning satellite imagery reveals an impressive and still strengthening area of low pressure near Boise. Forecast low temperatures this weekend, Saturday morning in particular, hint at the potential for widespread freezing temperatures across all of SE Idaho.
302 AM CDT Fri Sep 22 2017 A significant mid-level trough from the northern Inter-mountain region into Great Basin early this morning will slowly edge east through the Interior West this weekend.
An upper level ridge of high pressure continues to dominate our regional weather today with another very warm afternoon in store. High temperatures will be back in the lower 90s again today with southerly breezes 10 to 15 mph. The upper level ridge continues to hold on to our weather pattern on Saturday with another very warm day with highs in the upper 80s to near 90 degrees.
Turning warmer and drier this weekend. Moist cyclonic flow on the backside of the upper trof moving into the Great Basin will keep spreading mainly mid clouds over Norcal this evening. After lull in the shower activity overnight, the next wave of energy working on the backside of the trof is progged to move over the Sierra Fri afternoon. JHM A winter like trough will continue to move across interior northern California and exit early tonight. Trough will shift east into northern Nevada with cut-off low developing on Friday. Drier weather is expected this weekend as the trough shifts eastward.
343 AM CDT Fri Sep 22 2017 Flow aloft will continue to become more amplified over the CONUS with deep troughing west and upper ridging east.
237 AM MDT Fri Sep 22 2017 Anchored PAC NW upper level trough will continue to support a stalled ll baroclinic zone over the region today. Advancing front side upper level impulse is supporting a decent sfc cyclone over central SD this morning with this system expected to lift NE through the day. Another impulse will eject into the Rockies out of the deep upper low over the NW CONUS. Active SW flow will remain over the region through the weekend as the broad western trough moves east and front side impulses rotate through the flow. Some snow still looks possible tonight, in the highest elevations.
438 AM MDT Fri Sep 22 2017 Anchored PAC NW upper level trough will continue to support a stalled ll baroclinic zone over the region today. Advancing front side upper level impulse is supporting a decent sfc cyclone over central SD this morning with this system expected to lift NE through the day. Another impulse will eject into the Rockies out of the deep upper low over the NW CONUS. Active SW flow will remain over the region through the weekend as the broad western trough moves east and front side impulses rotate through the flow. Some snow still looks possible tonight, in the highest elevations.
Despite clear skies and southerly winds overnight do expect warmer temps for the lows. to the lower and mid 90s east of the boundary. The pattern over the United States becomes increasingly amplified on Friday and Saturday as a deep trough of lower pressure digs over the western U. while a large area of high pressure remains in place from the plains states to the east coast.
123 AM EDT Fri Sep 22 2017 Fair weather high pressure will keep temperatures mild and skies mainly clear through the weekend. A large dome of high pressure along with a very warm air mass.
236 AM CDT Fri Sep 22 2017 Water vapor satellite this morning shows ridging aloft extended from northern Mexico/Texas northeast into Quebec. Troughing extended from the Rockies toward Hudsons Bay. Very little eastward movement in this pattern is expected through the weekend as the tropical systems over the Atlantic hold the ridge in place which in turn keeps the troughing over the Rockies. Very little movement is expected in the low levels as well with ridging remaining over the eastern conus. The cold front that is over the Dakotas this morning will not move much through tonight.
Early morning satellite imagery and model analysis fields indicate the upper level ridge axis centered directly over lower Michigan where it will remain through the weekend.
Patchy fog or freezing fog is possible early this morning, along with slushy or icy roads in some areas due to recent snow. Main concerns early this morning will be slick roadways due to either recent snow, or freezing of wet roadways as temperatures lower to or slightly below freezing through sunrise. The deep trough over NV that is bringing the cold and wet weather will slowly drift eastward tonight into Saturday with showers tapering off from northwest to southeast.
308 AM CDT Fri Sep 22 2017 A warm front was located across central MN to Lake Superior with a strong cold front in the eastern Dakotas. Today: High pressure surface and aloft will provide plenty of sunshine (patchy cirrus) along with humid conditions. Afternoon temperatures will soar into the lower 90s at many locations, and a couple of mid 90s can't be ruled out, depending on amount of mixing.
632 AM EDT Fri Sep 22 2017 Fair weather high pressure will keep temperatures mild and skies mainly clear through the weekend. A persistent upper atmospheric ridge will strengthen through Saturday, pushing temperatures well above normal for late- September. As the ridge strengthens Saturday, temperatures will push into the lower and middle-80s across the region.
314 AM CDT Fri Sep 22 2017 A large upper trough/low will continue to settle into the Southwestern states into this weekend. In addition, the main focus area for showers/thunderstorms will be near the lee trough over western Kansas, and along a slow, southward moving cold front in Nebraska.
Hot and humid and dry wx will continue Friday through Saturday with sfc/upper ridging in place and persistent south to southwest flow.
Surface warm front appears to have lifted north of the area but 925 mb progs indicate a frontal boundary over the north this morning may be the main focus of convection across the area. For tonight into Saturday, will continue the dry forecast as the upper ridge and cap dominates. With the warm front lifting north of the area tonight into Saturday, south winds will continue to pump in a very warm and humid air mass into the area.
308 AM CDT Fri Sep 22 2017 Low to mid level southwest flow continues downstream of the western CONUS trough.
129 AM EDT Fri Sep 22 2017 High pressure over the area making for very light winds, with local drainage winds being the rule.
1110 PM MDT Thu Sep 21 2017 A large trough across the western CONUS will influence our weather through the upcoming weekend. At 19z a cold front had pushed through over 1/2 of the CWA and was from roughly KD07 to KIEN. Aloft, southwest flow will prevail with periodic short- wave troughs ejecting out of the western CONUS trough about every 24 hours.
An offshore upper level ridge will bring clearing skies and a little warming today and Saturday.
That being said, it was definitely noteworthy for this TAF cycle and decided to include the low level wind shear. Models and ensembles in good agreement regarding longwave mid- level trof over western CONUS for the next several days, with a slow eastward translation. The low-level jet is expected to develop overnight for the next several days, with speeds of 30 to 55 knots nightly.
136 AM EDT Fri Sep 22 2017 High pressure will prevail through this weekend. The high will weaken and shift inland as Hurricane Maria tracks northward off the Southeast U. A weak upper trough pattern and lingering low-level moisture on Friday will support isolated showers/tstms mainly in the afternoon associated with the sea breeze. As dry high pressure steadily builds down the east coast, the best rain chances on Saturday will be across southeast GA where better moisture resides.
338 AM CDT Fri Sep 22 2017 The synoptic pattern is highlighted by SW-NE oriented upper-level ridge extending from the Southern Plains into the Great Lakes. Post-Tropical Storm Jose is located just east of this ridge off the New England coast and a deep, quasi-stationary trough is noted over the western CONUS. The pattern is expected to chance little over the next 24 hours, but the ridge is progged to slide a bit farther north as we move into the weekend. Weak capping associated with the ridge aloft should limit the coverage of diurnal convection. As the ridge slides north this weekend, slight cooling in the mid-levels should put temperatures on a very slow cooling trend.
337 AM CDT Fri Sep 22 2017 The focus in the short term will be the change to much cooler weather with the arrival of autumn and the increasing chances for showers and some thunderstorms. A secondary cold front will also be a focus for showers today. Tonight scattered showers will be highlighted across the region as the upper trough moves east and teh region will be in an active southwest flow aloft.
335 AM EDT Fri Sep 22 2017 A broad area of high pressure extending from the Great Lakes region into the south central U. will remain in place through the short term with a weak upper low continuing to linger over the southeast.
235 AM EDT Fri Sep 22 2017 Deep high pressure will continue to dominate the weather for the Midwest today and Saturday. Models are in excellent agreement, having the large ridge keeping our weather hot and dry. That pattern does look to break down by the end of the period though, as our ridge gets pushed south and east by the next trough.
156 AM EDT Fri Sep 22 2017 Fair weather high pressure will keep temperatures mild and skies mainly clear through the weekend. A persistent upper atmospheric ridge will strengthen through Saturday, pushing temperatures well above normal for late- September. As the ridge strengthens Saturday, temperatures will push into the lower and middle-80s across the region. A large dome of high pressure along with a very warm air mass.
218 AM EDT Fri Sep 22 2017 Fair weather high pressure will keep temperatures mild and skies mainly clear through the weekend. A persistent upper atmospheric ridge will strengthen through Saturday, pushing temperatures well above normal for late- September. As the ridge strengthens Saturday, temperatures will push into the lower and middle-80s across the region.
351 AM CDT Fri Sep 22 2017 Strong upper trough centered over ID this morning extends down across CA to the Pacific. This trough will slowly push east as it tries to dislodge the upper ridge center over the Eastern US. Should be a few degrees cooler today but still well above normal with highs mainly in the 90s.
/Issued 343 AM CDT Fri Sep 22 2017/ Flow aloft will continue to become more amplified over the CONUS with deep troughing west and upper ridging east.
Morning satellite pics showing a well defined upper level low centered north of the Treasure Valley. The circulation is expected to drift southwestward into Malheur county by midday with precipitation development focusing to the north and west of the low center. Drier conditions develop tonight into Saturday as the upper low fills in and gradually moves eastward.
355 AM PDT Fri Sep 22 2017 Upper level low pressure will persist over the western United States through Saturday, keeping temperatures below normal.
332 AM CDT Fri Sep 22 2017 Broad ridging over the Mississippi Valley and deep southwest flow aloft over the eastern Rockies will continue to result in above normal temperatures and humid conditions through at least Saturday for the entirety of the CWA.
Weak high pressure is over the Eastern U. A large area of deep layer high pressure will remain stagnant from the Great Lakes through Texas for much of the period, with a weak upper level low meandering over the region between the aforementioned high and Hurricane Maria in the Atlantic. While the low will linger across the area and boundary layer moisture remains high, increasing mid level dry air will suppress most convection across the region tomorrow. Temperatures will run near climatology through the period, with highs in the upper 80s to near 90 and lows in the low 70s.
342 AM EDT Fri Sep 22 2017 High pressure will extend into the area through the weekend. After that high pressure over the Ohio Valley will control our weather today with dry weather expected and plenty of sunshine. A few of the higher resolution models show a few very isolated showers near the sounds. High pressure centered over the Great Lakes will extend down across the region through the period, while we continue to monitor Hurricane Maria.
Deep western trough will move a little closer but still shouldn't have much impact on our weather. For today's temperatures we went with the higher side of model guidance (i. This is a couple degrees warmer than the previous forecast and was the main short term change to the forecast. Convective initiation is expected to occur by mid-late afternoon in closer proximity to the western trough, from the western side of the Caprock into the western end of the Oklahoma Panhandle. The earlier concern was a trend toward a slower/deeper western trough and as a result we kept pushing rain chances further out in time.
The longwave trough will remain over the Rockies, with the upper level ridge axis stretching from the south central US to the the Great Lakes region through the end of the week. Temperatures will be a few degrees cooler this afternoon as H85 temperatures drop a few degrees, though it will certainly not feel close to actually cool for the first day of fall.
Plenty of sunshine is expected today with southern Wisconsin sitting under the western portion of high pressure. It will stay mild and dry tonight as high pressure builds more into the area from the east.
359 AM EDT Fri Sep 22 2017 High pressure remains positioned from New England down to the Tennessee Valley. A mid-level ridge of high pressure will expand northeast into the Great Lakes region through the short term.
1034 PM EDT Sun Aug 13 2017 High pressure from the Ohio Valley will build across the region tonight.
Highs will range from the 60s on the coast to the lower and mid 70s inland.
1019 PM EDT Sun Aug 13 2017 The area will remain situated between an inland trough and Atlantic high pressure through the week. The area will remain between an inland trough and offshore high pressure at the surface. High pressure will also build aloft. Deep moisture should persist through the period and in general the best rain chances should be across South Carolina closer to low pressure. Probably the main sensible weather highlight this period will be the high heat index values. Heights aloft will be on the rise through the second half of the week as stronger ridging develops across the Southeast.
1035 PM MDT Sun Aug 13 2017 The upper low spinning over eastern ND is helping to produce some thunderstorms across eastern SD and western MN. Meanwhile, weak ridging with an embedded wave is pushing through MT/WY, resulting in a few showers and storms across central WY. The next trough to affect the region is moving over the Pacific Northwest. At the surface, low pressure sits over central SD, and a cold front/stationary boundary extends from it south into NE, and back north into WY and MT. Ridge rider will enhance a few showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and overnight along the aforementioned boundary.
At the surface, very moist airmass remains over the central and southern Plains with a cold front stretching across nw Nebraska. Storms are expected to develop late this afternoon over the high Plains of eastern CO and track southeast this evening. This will allow a cold front to push through Wed into Wed evening with this front likely having showers and storms tied to it. Pattern looks to remain active through most of these extended periods as broad upper trough remains from the Rockies into the mid/northern Mississippi Valley. Main Aviation Hazard: stratus potential Most convection occurring over the high Plains this evening is expected to remain to the west/northwest of central Kansas.
Kept the higher chances for the North and into the Northeast zones with next in a series of upper disturbances moving through the nearly zonal flow in the middle levels.
Surface moisture is also rebounding, with dew points currently ranging from the lower 60s north of the Mountain Parkway to around 70 in the south. Dry and pleasant weather will remain in place across eastern Kentucky today and most of tonight, before an area of low pressure finally brings showers and storms back to the area.
521 PM MDT Sun Aug 13 2017 The upper low spinning over eastern ND is helping to produce some thunderstorms across eastern SD and western MN. Meanwhile, weak ridging with an embedded wave is pushing through MT/WY, resulting in a few showers and storms across central WY. The next trough to affect the region is moving over the Pacific Northwest. At the surface, low pressure sits over central SD, and a cold front/stationary boundary extends from it south into NE, and back north into WY and MT. Ridge rider will enhance a few showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and overnight along the aforementioned boundary.
Otherwise, a steady stream of high clouds will continue over lower Michigan through the morning as high pressure drifts eastward at the surface. Weak southerly flow in advance of the approaching low very late tonight and Monday will send a very weak warm front up through the area, with isentropic ascent and moisture just enough over the Saginaw Valley and Thumb to justify a low chance for showers and thunderstorms throughout the day.
This evening's surface analysis showed a broad, weak trough across our forecast area, but the very weak pressure gradient was allowing the local surface winds to be dominated by the mesoscale, including sea breeze fronts and outflow boundaries.