Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
AN UPPER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO TODAY DURING PEAK HEATING. THE SEVERE THREAT ELSEWHERE TODAY WILL BE RELATIVELY LOW GIVEN THE LOW SHEAR VALUES. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL STILL BE LINGERING OVER THE AREA.
124 PM PDT SUN MAY 24 2015 LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE A FAIRLY DEEP MARINE LAYER.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO SHOWED FAIRLY STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT DUE TO PRONOUNCED UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER THE AREA. THE COMBINATION OF THE COASTAL TROUGH JUST OFFSHORE AND DIURNAL HEATING OVER LAND WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A LOW CHANCE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NE FL NORTH OF A LINE FROM GAINESVILLE TO ST AUGUSTINE. THE COASTAL TROUGH WILL MOVE CLOSER TO THE COAST THIS EVENING AND A FEW ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS MAY CLIP THE COASTAL LAND ZONES THIS EVENING.
DRIER AND SLIGHTLY SUBSIDENT FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE VORT MAX HAS KEPT SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR OVER THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST CA. AREA TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY EVEN IN SPOTS UNDERNEATH THE THICK. BUT DO LITTLE BY WAY OF USHERING IN ANY COOLER AIRMASS TEMPERATURES OR REDUCTION IN ML AND UL THICKNESSES. HERALDING A RETURN TO WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS.
THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM SYSTEM WAS OVER COLORADO/WYOMING. WITH THE STRONG IMPULSES ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE LATEST WATER VAPOR SHOWS A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHWEST BRITISH COLUMBIA.
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND CIGS LOWER AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN ZONES CLOSEST TO UPPER RIDGE AXIS. PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS MODELS SUGGEST PERIODIC WAVES WILL EJECT ACROSS THE AREA OUT OF A MEAN TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES.
THE UPPER LOW WILL FINALLY MOVE NORTHEAST OVER THE CWA AND WILL WEAKEN. COOLER AIR WITHIN THE UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD SO EXPECT AT LEAST SCATTERED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WITH ISO-T LATE MORNING THROUGH THE EVENING.
/ISSUED 423 AM CDT Sun May 24 2015/ (Today and tonight) One more round of showers and thunderstorms will move across West Central Texas as the main upper trough moves across the area.
THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT LATEST OBSERVATIONS SHOWED THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER NC CO/SC WY WITH A 90KT JET STREAK HEADING NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. AS THE UPPER LOW SHIFTS INTO ERN WY/WRN SD. THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH WILL SLOWLY SHIFT INTO THE ERN DAKOTAS.
336 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015 HIGH PRESSURE THAT HAS ALLOWED FOR PLEASANT CONDITIONS THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS HAS CONTINUED TO PULL EAST TODAY ALLOWING FOR WARMING CONDITIONS ALONG WITH RISING HUMIDITY. AS THE RIDGE AXIS SLOWLY MOVES EAST INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE ROCKIES WILL BEGIN TO BECOME DISLODGED MONDAY ALLOWING FOR THE RIDGE AXIS TO PUSH EAST AND THE CHANCE OF RAIN TO RETURN TO THE AREA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING LOWER END INSTABILITY WITH K INDEX VALUES IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY STRONG COLD UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH CENTER NEAR CRAIG COLORADO OCCLUDING WITH STRONG DEFORMATION AXIS ASSOCIATED WITH BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL WITH RATES UP TO 1 INCH AN HOUR OVER EASTERN FREMONT COUNTY. DRY SLOT EAST AND NORTHEAST OF UPPER LOW CENTER BECOMING UNSTABLE WITH RAPID THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
1215 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015 UPDATED AVIATION SECTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE LARGE UPPER LOW OVER THE ROCKIES AT 06Z WITH A PROMINENT RIDGE AXIS AT H5 FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO SE U.
308 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015 THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL BE ON THE MOVE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL TRANSLATE SOUTH OF THE MAIN LOW AND AFFECT THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THRU MONDAY. THE NAM TRIES TO DEVELOP STORMS ALONG THE WARM FRONT ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES AND CANNOT COMPLETELY DISCOUNT THIS EITHER. THE FORECAST TURNS MORE INTERESTING ON MONDAY WITH BETTER DYNAMICS ALOFT AS THE UPPER LOW REACHES NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
KBRO RADAR IS SHOWING SOME SPOTTY DEVELOPMENT WEST OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHEAST MEXICO WHERE LAPS DATA IS SHOWING SOME BETTER CAPE VALUES.
225 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015 WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS INDICATED A DEPARTING UPPER RIDGE SHIFTING EASTWARD OFF THE FL COAST, WITH A RATHER EXPANSIVE UPPER LOW CHURNING OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. BETWEEN THESE FEATURES WAS A LARGE PLUME OF MOISTURE EXTENDING NORTHWARD FROM THE WRN GOMEX AS FAR NORTH AS THE HIGH PLAINS.
257 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015 A WEAK COLD FRONT STALLED OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER WARM FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND INTRODUCE MORE HUMID CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEK. BUT WITH A POWERFUL UPPER RIDGE RAPIDLY BUILDING IN THE SOUTHEASTERN US. THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE MOVING NORTH AS WARM FRONT OVERNIGHT WITH A FEW SHOWERS. WITH THE WARMER AIR MASS IN PLACE MONDAY.
314 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015 UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. A VERY WEAK WARM FRONT HAD LIFTED INTO THE FORECAST AREA RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS THIS MORNING. AS WELL AS WESTERN NEBRASKA CLOSER TO THE UPPER LOW. ESPECIALLY AS A REINFORCING WARM FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE NIGHT.
MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TODAY AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING SHORT WAVE TROF OVER TEXAS. LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TEXAS SHORT WAVE TROF WILL KEEP STORMS RATHER ACTIVE OVER MISSISSIPPI. THE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROF AXIS WILL PUSH INTO WEST ALABAMA ON MONDAY.
AFTER A COUPLE MORE COOLER THAN NORMAL DAYS TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB ABOVE NORMAL ESPECIALLY FOR INLAND AREAS TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING CLOSE TO YESTERDAY WITH A FEW INLAND SPOTS AS MUCH AS 4 DEGREES AHEAD WHILE AT THE COAST MOST PLACES ARE THE SAME OR SLIGHTLY COOLER. DOWNTOWN SAN FRANCISCO IS STANDING AT 55 RIGHT NOW WHICH IS AROUND 20 DEGREES COOLER THAN THE FORECAST HIGH FOR FAIRBANKS ALASKA.
1240 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015 PLEASANT WEATHER LAST FEW DAYS WILL BE ENDING TODAY AS IMPACT FROM BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER WESTERN U. UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL ROCKIES WITH SEVERAL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS ROTATING AROUND BASE AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING. STILL LOOKING LIKE UPPER LOW WILL DEVELOP INTO OPEN WAVE AND MOVE NORTHEAST MORE RAPIDLY ON MEMORIAL DAY.
AMPLIFIED EASTERN CONUS RIDGING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY. SHARP S/W WILL EJECT NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF BROAD WESTERN CONUS TROF LATE TONIGHT TOWARDS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT W/ RIDGING HOLDING ACROSS THE REGION.
A WEAK UPPER LOW WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TODAY.
Kept high temperatures on the cool side in the lower 70s and went slightly cooler on lows in the 50s. Either way if storms do develop there is a chance they could be strong to severe given the high instability, but will probably not be well organized.
WARMER WEATHER IS FORECAST TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD NEAR THE WEST COAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE IN THE LOWER 90S FOR HIGHS WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.
GIVEN 00Z CONSENSUS PLACEMENT OF MID LVL RIDGE AXIS AND WWD TRENDING EJECTING SRN STREAM TROUGH. OTRWS LL THERMAL RIDGE BLDS FURTHER. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL LIFT NORTHEAST EARLY THIS WEEK AND WILL EJECT AN UPPER LEVEL TROF TOWARD THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION EARLY MONDAY. HAVE ALSO ADDED MORE DETAIL LATER THIS WEEK AS SUBSEQUENT UPPER TROFS MOVE TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA. MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING THIS WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EXTENDS NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER.
325 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015 BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OFFSHORE. STRONG RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT ANY DECENT AVAILABLE MOISTURE.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA IS MOVING SOUTHEAST. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTHWEST BRITISH COLUMBIA IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN SLIGHTLY LATER TONIGHT, THEN DRIFT SOUTHEAST THROUGH EASTERN WASHINGTON STATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER LOW DRIFTING INTO EASTERN WASHINGTON MONDAY WILL INCREASE THE ONSHORE LOW LEVEL, WHICH TENDS TO BE RATHER STABLE, INTO CENTRAL OREGON AND THE COLUMBIA BASIN.
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON RESULTED IN WARMER TEMPS AND MORE MIXING THAN INDICATED BY MOST OF THE MODELS. EVEN THOUGH THE LOW LEVELS HAVE WARMED AND MOISTENED. THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL OF ANY ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS TO BE OVER SE MISSOURI LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING.
THE POTENT TROUGH ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN WEST HAS BEEN SLOWER TO MOVE INTO THE PLAINS THAN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS SUGGESTED. THESE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE RATHER LIGHT AND SCATTERED AS THE MAIN AREA OF FORCING (SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL LOW) REMAINS SOUTH INTO NEBRASKA. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.
THE DOMINATING FACTOR IN THE FORECAST REMAINS THE LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA AND THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS RIDGE IS THE REASON FOR THE INCREASING WINDS OVER THE AREA.
317 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015 A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ANCHORED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES OFF THE DELMARVA COAST THROUGH EARLY IN THE UPCOMING WEEK WHILE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS OVER PENNSYLVANIA. A FEW UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES AND THE APPROACH OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL HELP TO TRIGGER ISOLATED TO SCATTERED.
CHANGES EXPECTED IN THE LATTER PART OF THIS CYCLE AS AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES. TODAY WILL START THE BEGINNING OF A MUCH WARMER AND WETTER PATTERN FOR OUR REGION AS THE PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS GETS FLATTENED SOMEWHAT AND SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INCREASES. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE MUCH COOLER THAN TODAY DUE TO CLOUDS AND PRECIP.
AS TEMPERATURES TREND UPWARDS INSTABILITY WILL ALSO BE INCREASING WHERE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL AS THE WARM FRONT EXTENDS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW SYSTEM LIFTS NORTHEAST CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS SHOULD LINGER FOR ANOTHER NIGHT OF LIGHT RAIN. A PACIFIC COLD FRONT NUDGES EAST INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA BY MONDAY MORNING. A POTENT SOUTHERN STREAM PV MAX QUICKLY EJECTS NORTHEAST OUT OF NEW MEXICO AND PHASES WITH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
At 19 UTC, a large-scale upper trough was moving northeast out of the southern plains. Both the 12 UTC NAM/GFS bring an EML into northeast KS in the wake of the ejecting upper trough. The large upper trough over the desert southwest slowly moves into the central plains during the period.
SATELLITE IMAGES THIS AFTERNOON SHOW AN UPR LOW CENTER OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WY WITH THE UPR TROF OVR CO. ON MON THAT UPR TROF WL BE SLOW TO EXIT THE AREA. AND BEHIND THE TROF SHOWERS AND TSTMS WL AGAIN SPREAD ACRS THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST. IT LOOKS LIKE THUNDERSTORMS WL FIRE OVER THE MTNS AGAIN IN THE LATE MORNING HOURS AND THEN SPREAD OVR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL CONTINUE MOVING TO THE WE. AS A SHORT WAVE RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE C ROCKIES. ALLOW AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE WILL CROSS THROUGH OUR AREA. AND IF TEMPS DO NOT GET MUCH ABOVE 80 AT KPUB IT WILL PROBABLY SEAL OUR FATE FOR HAVING ONE OF THE COOLER AND WETTER MAYS IN RECENT YEARS.
247 PM MDT SUN MAY 24 2015 SATELLITE IMAGES THIS AFTERNOON SHOW AN UPR LOW CENTER OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WY WITH THE UPR TROF OVR CO. ON MON THAT UPR TROF WL BE SLOW TO EXIT THE AREA. AND BEHIND THE TROF SHOWERS AND TSTMS WL AGAIN SPREAD ACRS THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST. IT LOOKS LIKE THUNDERSTORMS WL FIRE OVER THE MTNS AGAIN IN THE LATE MORNING HOURS AND THEN SPREAD OVR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL CONTINUE MOVING TO THE WE. AS A SHORT WAVE RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE C ROCKIES. ALLOW AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE WILL CROSS THROUGH OUR AREA. AND IF TEMPS DO NOT GET MUCH ABOVE 80 AT KPUB IT WILL PROBABLY SEAL OUR FATE FOR HAVING ONE OF THE COOLER AND WETTER MAYS IN RECENT YEARS.
614 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015 A WEAK COLD FRONT STALLED OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER WARM FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND INTRODUCE MORE SUMMER LIKE. BUT WITH A POWERFUL UPPER RIDGE RAPIDLY BUILDING IN THE SOUTHEASTERN US. THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE MOVING NORTH AS WARM FRONT OVERNIGHT WITH A FEW SHOWERS. WITH THE WARMER AIR MASS IN PLACE MONDAY.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING STILL REMAINS IN PLACE. MORE PREDOMINATE MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES COOLER JUST WEST OF I-65. WITH THE HIGHER RAIN CHANCE IN THE VICINITY OF KMSL.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED TO THE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A WEAK WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. A STRONG BERMUDA HIGH/SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED OFF THE NORTH FLORIDA COAST AT 12Z MON WILL BUILD NORTH TO NEAR HATTERAS BY TUE PM. CLOUDS WILL LIKELY INCREASE SOME ACROSS DOWN EAST MAINE AND THE SW CORNER OF THE CWA AS A WARM FRONT BEGINS TO ORGANIZE TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA. BUT COOLER ALONG THE COAST.
particularly over the western and northern parts of the CWA as the upper ridge moves off to the east which will allow for southwesterly upper flow to establish itself over the area. This low level moisture convergence will shift eastward today and is being picked up well by the 00Z NMM WRF.
SHOWERS SHOULD BEGIN DEVELOPING AROUND SUNRISE NEAR THE LRD AREA AND THEN INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF SOUTH TX DUE TO AN APPROACHING S/WV ROUNDING THE MEAN TROUGH. ADJUSTED TEMPS SLIGHTLY WARMER OUT WEST WHERE THERE WL BE MORE INSOLATION. WENT MORE OPTIMISTIC WITH CLOUD CVR FURTHER EAST AS THE HIGH CLOUD DECK WL CONTINUE TO PUSH EWD.
Current thinking is this activity will begin tracking northward later this evening/early overnight as main mid-level wave and associated sfc reflection ride up a lingering convergent trough axis now in place along/near the Route 65 corridor. while areas along and west of the highway 71 and I-35 corridors should be able to breath a sigh of relief. expect wind fields to increase as confluent flow on east side of trough axis glances our area.
350 PM MDT SUN MAY 24 2015 UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WYOMING CONTINUES TO WRAP MOISTURE AROUND THE BACK SIDE AND INTO OUR NORTHERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM IS FINALLY BEING KICKED OUT BY A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ARRIVING TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. EXPECT A NOTICEABLE DOWNTURN TO THE CONVECTION ONCE THE SUN SET TOMORROW AS DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MOVES IN WITH A TRANSITORY RIDGE ARRIVING IN THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN.
241 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015 HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TO OUR SOUTH THIS EVENING AND WILL PROVIDE FAIR AND WARMER WEATHER INTO MEMORIAL DAY.
210 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015 HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH TONIGHT. ALOFT, A SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NE FROM THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES TOWARD THE HIGH PLAINS. WITH AN AMPLIFYING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING EAST DOWNSTREAM FROM THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE MID- ATLANTIC REGION. POPS REMAIN NEAR NIL UNDERNEATH THE UPPER RIDGE. AND SUBSIDENCE BENEATH THE UPR RIDGE KEEPS AIRMASS DRY DESPITE INCRG PW / DP TEMPS. COOLER AT THE BEACHES EACH DAY. AN UPR-LEVEL RIDGE WILL SLOWLY BREAK DOWN THRU THE PERIOD AS WAVES OF LO PRES PASS MAINLY NW OF THE LOCAL AREA. WITH NO REASON TO GO HIGHER AT THIS POINT DUE TO WEAK FORCING AND UPR-LEVEL RIDGING. WITH UPR-LEVEL RIDGING IN PLACE.
WARM AND MOIST AIR WILL CONTINUE TO BE ADVECTED INTO THE FORECAST AREA ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT.
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 57 84 57 85 / 0 10 0 10 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 57 83 59 83 / 0 10 10 10 OAK RIDGE, TN 57 83 58 84 / 0 10 10 10 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 53 82 56 81 / 10 10 10 20.
VERY DRY AIR CIRCULATING AROUND UPPER LOW IN NWRN WA THIS EVENING. THE UPPER LOW WILL GO STRAIGHT SOUTH ALONG 120W WEDNESDAY.
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY SPREAD INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS MAIN UPPER LOW.
THE LOCAL AREA REMAINS IN BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING ACROSS THE CAROLINA COAST. AND SLOWLY DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS. MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW AND WEAK COASTAL TROUGHING IS RESULTING IN SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THIS EVE. LOWS TNGT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S FAR INLAND.
AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE PATTERN. WITH LOW TEMPS A FEW DEGREES WARMER TOMORROW MORNING. 70/DD /ISSUED 214 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015/ THE 19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED THAT A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WAS RIDGING SOUTHWEST DOWN THE APPALACHIANS INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION.
956 PM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015 A STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO INTO SOUTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA WILL LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
EXPECT SHOWERS TO DIMINISH AND SKIES BEGIN TO CLEAR TODAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES EAST THROUGH NEW MEXICO.
OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST INTO THIS WEEKEND.
ALONG WITH SOME PATCHES OF MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION CLOUDS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK LOBE OF PVA CIRCULATING AROUND THE MEAN UPPER HIGH OVER SEMO. A 583DM H5 HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS OVER MID APPALACHIA. AND RIDGES ACROSS THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY. A TROPICALLY INFLUENCED LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL BEGIN TO CIRCULATE ONTO THE SOUTHEAST U. THIS HELPS WEAKEN THE HIGH.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT PLAYER IN THE FORECAST.
A SIMILAR TREND WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AS WE REMAIN SANDWICHED BETWEEN THE UPPER TROF TO OUR WEST AND THE UPPER RIDGE TO OUR EAST.
1008 PM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT FROM CANADA.
THE LOW LEVEL MIXING TOMORROW MORNING WILL RAISE THE CEILINGS BACK UP TO VFR LEVELS BY THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. 500MB LOW/TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES THIS AFTERNOON WILL LIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
1112 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015 SUBTLE WARM FRONT CREEPING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA.
635 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015 00Z TAF CYCLE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW MOVING NORTH AND EAST OUT OF THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE THREE TAF SITES BETWEEN 00Z AND 03Z WEDNESDAY.
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S IN FAR NW IL TO THE LOWER 60S SOUTH. RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN THE OHIO VALLEY WHILE DEEP TROUGH PUSHES OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE PLAINS. GFS SEEMS AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING QPF TOO FAR EAST INTO THE BUILDING RIDGE COMPARED TO THE OTHER OPERATIONAL MODELS. A GOOD PORTION OF THE PERIOD FROM LATE WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL FIND THE CWA RESIDING IN MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP SLOW MOVING TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. DISTURBANCES EJECTING FROM THE TROUGH WILL INTERACT WITH THE INCREASING MOISTURE FOR ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER OUR EASTERN COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT FORCED BY THE OUTER EDGES OF THE SUB-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR THE BAHAMAS. OTHERWISE, TONIGHT SHOULD BE A COOL, CLOUDY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOW 60S.
845 PM PDT TUE MAY 5 2015 A COLD LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL BRING COOL WEATHER.
THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LOW ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS WITH INCREASINGLY ACTIVE SWRLY FLOW OVER THE NRN PLAINS. A SECOND TROUGH IS MOVING ONSHORE THE PACIFIC NW. THE PACIFIC NW TROUGH WILL DEEPEN AND CUT OFF TONIGHT AS THE FOUR CORNER LOW BEGINS ITS PHASE IN TRANSITION. AS THE LOW SWINGS BY THE DAKOTA WED. COOLER AIR WILL WRAP AROUND AND PUSH ACROSS THE CWA MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOUR TOMORROW.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT TAKING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND THE ASSOCIATED RAIN CHANCES ALONG IT TO OUR NORTH. MOST MODELS INDICATE 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF AROUND 10 KTS IN OUR AREA THANKS TO THE BUILDING RIDGE.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON TONIGHT WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. THE LOW WILL MOVE OFF TO THE SOUTH AND EAST ON WEDNESDAY WITH SHOWERS DECREASING IN COVERAGE.
SOME OF THE HIGH-RES MODELS MOVE THESE STORMS EAST IN THE CENTRAL AREAS OF SETX AFTER 3 AM BUT THIS MAY BE DIFFICULT TO GET THEM THAT FAR EAST BUT CERTAINLY INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA IS A GREATER POSSIBILITY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WEEK WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN NORMAL.
1236 AM EDT WED MAY 6 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT FROM CANADA.
906 PM PDT Tue May 5 2015 Dry weather will continue through early Wednesday before a cooler and more unsettled pattern begins later Wednesday into the end of the work week. Low pressure dropping southward from the Pacific Northwest will bring a chance for showers and thunderstorms, mainly to the mountains.
1118 PM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT.
WITH LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 70S. EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER OVER SOUTH TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS TRAPPED BENEATH A STRONG MID LEVEL INVERSION.
926 PM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015 EVENTUAL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTH THROUGH THE ATLANTIC WATERS, WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD SHOWERS ALONG THE EAST COAST OVERNIGHT. /ISSUED 258 PM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015/ LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH NORTH AND AWAY FROM THE AREA THIS WEEK. SFC LOPRES TROF OVER NRN BAHAMAS HAD FLARE UP OF CONVECTION NEAR IT THIS AFTERNOON. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH AND AWAY FROM SOUTH FLORIDA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
For tonight, have the highest Pops across the Big Country closer to better mid level ascent and low level southerly flow, with decreasing Pops further south. If the low clouds can break during the afternoon, there should be some moderate instability for isolated to scattered storms to develop during the afternoon and evening hours and move east into our area.
936 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015 CONTINUED THE TREND OF DELAYING THE HIGHER POPS. THE MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS SHOULD OCCUR WED AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS THE UPPER LOW IS CLOSER TO THE REGION. SLOWED DOWN THE HIGHER POPS UNTIL MORE AFTER 12Z. SHOULD BE A LITTLE WARMER ACROSS THE SOUTH FOR THESE REASONS. AFTER THE PCPN ENDS THU NIGHT IT LOOKS NOTICEABLY COOLER FOR FRI.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE MID SOUTH THIS EVENING AND SHOULD KEEP DRY AND MILD WEATHER IN PLACE OVERNIGHT. COURTESY OF AN UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING CLOSED LOW.
AND A WARM FRONT OVER THE AREA. THIS RAIN IS BEING PRODUCED BY 900 TO 800 MB FRONTOGENESIS AND A SURFACE WARM FRONT IN NORTHERN IOWA. 12Z MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT THE WARM FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTH TO THE INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR TONIGHT AND INTO CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN ON WEDNESDAY. THIS FRONTOGENESIS AND WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO BE FOCUS OF RAIN.
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWED A NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH FROM THE FOUR CORNERS REGION TO THE BIG BEND WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE WINDS CONTINUED FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND DEW POINT TEMPERATURES WERE FROM THE LOW TO UPPER 60S. THE FOUR CORNERS TROUGH WILL MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND FLATTEN AS IT MOVES INTO THE RIDGE. THE LOW LEVELS WILL CHANGE VERY LITTLE WITH MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW CONTINUING.
OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW 60S.
Strong southerly flow as a result of the western trough and eastern high pressure will bring ample Gulf moisture into the region over the next few days.
THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO DRIFT INTO WESTERN KANSAS UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
MID AND UPPER RIDGE HOLDS IN PLACE WITH WEAK STEERING FLOW. WEAK SYNOPTIC FLOW UNDER MID AND UPPER RIDGE. SO CONTINUE WITH THE HIGHER CHANCE POPS THERE. THE 700 MB RIDGE CENTER TO OUR E TRIES TO GIVE A WEAK E FLOW INTO SW VA. UPPER RIDGE HOLDS ACROSS EASTERN U.
ALOFT - BROAD TROUGHING EXTENDED FROM WESTERN CANADA INTO THE WESTERN U. RIDGING REACHED FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES TO THE UPPER MIDWEST WHILE A WEAK TROUGH OR OW WAS OVER SOUTHEAST FL. HIGH PRESSURE IN THE OPEN ATLANTIC RIDGED WEST WITH AN AXIS THAT CROSSED THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND CONTINUED TO THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AND AN INVERTED TROUGH WAS OVER CENTRAL CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS.