Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
459 AM EST Sat Jan 30 2021 A polar dome of high pressure nestled into the Appalachians supports gentle-moderate northeast to east breezes across the Florida Keys. Temperatures are in the mid 60s, although the KBYX radar recently detected a density surge moving into the Lower Keys which would mean temperatures should fall a few degrees between now and sunrise. A multi-cored, Pacific surge of short wave energy is driving the upper level ridge axis east across the Midwest. The Appalachian high will take the hint from the upper-level ridge axis, and slide southeast into the western North Atlantic today through Sunday. Upstream, the mean-layer ridging will amplify in response to the Pacific maelstrom.
Freezing drizzle has materialized across a good portion of the CWA, especially northern areas. Several web cams across north central SD are also showing evidence of freezing drizzle. Expect the fog and freezing drizzle to persist through the day, with gradual improvements from west to east this evening/overnight. Sunday shows a trend of clearing skies from west to east as warmer air also moves in.
Mid level temps will decrease with the low overhead, which will increase lapse rates and allow for the development of some instability, primarily near and south of I-35. The pressure gradient will relax late tomorrow as high pressure settles into the region. Beyond this weekend, an amplified meridional upper flow pattern will remain in place over the CONUS with an upper ridge building in over the central US early in the workweek.
Warm, moist advection ahead of the upper-level low will bring warmer temperatures and the chance for showers by this afternoon and evening. Showers will spread east ahead of the system's cold front, mainly driven by top-down processes as the boundary layer will be capped. A tightening pressure gradient with the approaching low pressure system will see gradient winds increase today. The cold front should arrive early tomorrow morning. A period of stronger low-level mixing with the cold front's passage could mix down a few stronger gusts into the early morning hours.
424 AM EST Sat Jan 30 2021 High pressure along with dry and cool air will remain over the region today. Tonight cloud will quickly increase as a cold front and rain showers move into the region.
Rain chances will slowly be on the increase today as a Northeast Pacific trough axis sags south and taps into sub-tropical moisture, setting up a long-duration IVT plume with a prolonged period of moderate to locally heavy rainfall, gusty southerly winds and high elevation snow. Water vapor imagery shows a trough over the Pacific to our NW with a moisture stream feeding toward the CA coast to its south. Throughout the day, this moisture axis of high PWAT will be directed northeast over our region as the trough rotates closer. A wind advisory is set for tonight with expected 45 to 55 mph gusts over the ridges and exposed terrain, and 35 to 45 mph gusts along the coastal areas down to northern Mendocino county.
An upper disturbance is expected to move across portions of Texas/Southern Plains today, then lift NEWD toward the Midwest tonight/Sunday while an upper ridge develops over the WRN CONUS.
Would not be surprised to see a rogue wind gust to 60 mph in the northwest CWA as the cold front moves through, but confidence is not high enough in this area to issue a High Wind Warning at this time. Winds will gradually decrease from west to east this afternoon as the upper level trough responsible for the winds moves away from the Panhandles.
349 AM MST Sat Jan 30 2021 The trough is moving through the region early this morning. This trough will be the weather story for today as it progresses east.
A well defined baroclinic leaf downstream of this trough is a manifestation of the warm conveyor belt advecting subtropical moisture into the Southern Plains and Mid-MS Valley and implies cyclogenesis over the High Plains. A surface anticyclone remains over the upper OH Valley, setting return flow with an open Gulf. Gusty winds will continue this evening, gradually shifting from the west late tonight behind a Pacific cold front. A ridge will build over the central CONUS during this period, allowing temperatures to moderate after a cool start to the week and keeping the Mid-South dry for a few days.
This trend will continue through the late morning hours, with the highest PoPs expected around 12-15Z over our FA.
255 AM PST Sat Jan 30 2021 The weather this weekend will be dry with a warming trend as high pressure aloft builds over the Southwest.
Freezing fog remains possible for the overnight and early morning hours.
However, MVFR ceilings are expected to build back in tonight in the wake of a cold front that will move through the area. The system cold front pushes across the forecast area from late afternoon through late evening with gusty post frontal winds continuing through the day Sunday.
low pressure across Oklahoma and Kansas will provide a strong pressure gradient across the lower Texas coast today. a cold front will move into the CWA late tonight. The front will move through the Rio Grande Valley Sun morning and drier and cooler air will filter into the area Sun afternoon as high pressure builds into south Texas in the wake of the front.
Brief high pressure ridging translates through the region this afternoon through Sunday morning, with the threat of a few snow showers confined to the mountains of Northwest Montana. As a closed low settles off the Pacific Northwest Coast on Sunday, the flow will become southwesterly allowing moisture to stream into far Northwest Montana and potentially North-Central Idaho.
/issued 325 AM EST Sat Jan 30 2021/ Weak mid level ridging over the Mississippi River Valley and Gulf of Mexico will shift east into the Atlantic through the weekend as a broad mid level trough digs into the central and eastern CONUS. At the surface, high pressure sprawled across the eastern US today will keep quiet weather conditions in place, with a cool start to the morning giving way to seasonable afternoon temperatures under light east to southeast winds.
846 AM EST Sat Jan 30 2021 High pressure along the eastern seaboard will support another very pleasant day today, with a return southeast to southerly wind flow supporting a slow increase in moisture which will result in a few more clouds during the afternoon compared to yesterday along with milder temperatures. After a cool start this morning temperatures will rebound quickly with highs climbing into the lower to mid 70s during the afternoon. High pressure along the eastern seaboard will support southeast to south winds in the 10 to 15 knot range with seas of 2 to 3 feet over the Gulf waters the remainder of today.
Southerly winds have increased this evening as a deepening lee cyclone over the West-Central Plains has tightened the surface pressure gradient, allowing for an influx of warm and moist Gulf air to SE TX. While this increase in moisture will prove beneficial for the development of showers as a surface cold frontal boundary moves through the area later today and this evening, NAM/GFS forecast soundings indicate that the coverage and intensity of rainfall will be limited by ample dry air above ~850mb and a persistent capping inversion. As cooler and drier air filters into the region behind the boundary, lows will cool into the upper 40s to lower 50s.
Water vapor shows split trof moving out of the Rockies into the Plains, with main upper low over the Southern Rockies early this morning. Additionally, freezing drizzle looks to be more of an issue east of our zones, but will continue to monitor. Increasing northwest winds later this morning and afternoon behind an eastward moving surface trof should scour out much of the dense fog, and may also result in some light snow, but little in the way of accumulations expected. Decreasing clouds expected tonight from west to east as upper trof shifts east of the Plains.
541 AM CST Sat Jan 30 2021 Freezing drizzle and light snow is still expected today with higher accumulation possible along portions of the North Shore. Soundings continue to support freezing drizzle, especially over our southwest area. However, some freezing drizzle will be possible over northwest Wisconsin and much of northern Minnesota as well. The freezing drizzle will be most likely today then saturation increases tonight with snow the most likely precip type. The high resolution models continue to be quite bullish on QPF along the North Shore today into tonight, but especially today. The GFS/ECMWF ensemble members do not support the high snowfall either. A quieter period is in store Sunday night through through mid week with an upstream ridge eventually moving over the region.
Look for thickening and lowering clouds today as low pressure approaches the region, but precip will take its sweet time with plenty of low-level dry air to overcome. Cloud cover will keep max temps on the lower end of guidance, but temps do remain far enough above freezing to keep the precip almost entirely rain. Rain should be ongoing Sunday morning as temperature profiles warm well above the freezing mark. Winds will turn from southerly to westerly/northwesterly as a trailing cold front associated with the low passes through southern Indiana and central Kentucky.
405 AM CST Sat Jan 30 2021 Widespread freezing drizzle and dense fog are the two main challenges for the short term. Further south and east, freezing drizzle has become more widespread and should continue through the morning and into the afternoon, tapering off in the west and north through the day.
The strongest winds with speeds of 30 to 35 knots with higher gusts at DHT and GUY will come from the northwest behind a cold front. Would not be surprised to see a rogue wind gust to 60 mph in the northwest CWA as the cold front moves through, but confidence is not high enough in this area to issue a High Wind Warning at this time. Winds will gradually decrease from west to east this afternoon as the upper level trough responsible for the winds moves away from the Panhandles.
Thunder can not be discounted over Nrn AR closer to the surface/upper low. South winds wl ramp up later this mrng and cont thru the aftn hrs ahead of the low.
Otherwise dry conditions across the region as an upper ridge builds along the Continental Divide.
Gusty winds and drier air will quickly move northeast this afternoon, clearing skies and chasing the showers and few thunderstorms to near the upper low. This low will pass from north central OK to eastern KS by late afternoon. Moderate northwest wind will follow a cold front through the afternoon and continue over night.
221 PM CST Sat Jan 30 2021 Upper level heights and surface pressure fields will continue slowly unwinding tonight on the back side of the strong upper level low pressure system crossing Missouri heading into the Ohio Valley. We are replacing most of the area that was in the High Wind Warning with a Wind Advisory and combining this with the previous Wind Advisory. Sunday will remain in dry northwest flow aloft with an upper ridge axis to the west over the Rockies gradually approaching. But temperatures should still recover to near or a little warmer than normal for the end of January. RMcQueen A broad ridging pattern will settle in for the first half of the upcoming week.
This morning's sounding does show a significant layer of dry air in the low levels that this prcp must first overcome before it can even reach the surface. Certainly possible with freezing temps aloft, but with the low-level dryness and warm layer, plus above- freezing surface temps, there shouldn't be any issues if this is occurring. With the low in close proximity this evening, a rather sharp pressure gradient will develop leading to gusty winds tonight into the overnight hours.
Top of the inversion about 5200 ft MSL, so much of the Black Hills are above it in the warmer air, especially the southern Hills with less cloud cover.
Short term forecast is playing out largely as expected with lapse rates increasing as an upper level low approaches the Missouri Kansas border. Thunderstorms have developed over northeast Oklahoma as instability increases with the arrival of sunshine and surface dew point climb into the lower 50s ahead of an approaching cold front. The remaining precipitation will diminish as the upper low tracks northeastward through the CWA.
Otherwise, temperatures did look to be running slightly warmer than previous fcst, therefore blended in hourly consshort which seemed to have a good hold on things. Diegan Chattanooga Airport, TN 51 42 61 37 42 / 10 90 40 10 20 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 44 36 55 36 40 / 20 90 50 30 40 Oak Ridge, TN 44 36 55 35 40 / 30 90 40 30 40 Tri Cities Airport, TN 47 34 53 35 40 / 60 90 80 60 60 TN.
High pressure will bring dry conditions and a strong warming trend to start the week. Another winter weather system will bring cooler temperatures, gusty winds, and a chance of valley rain and mountain snow the second half of the week. Strong high pressure will dominate the first half of the new week.
5" are expected with the highest amounts south of the MO river. This evening, a cold front marches through the area dropping temperatures back into the 30s. Much of the precipitation is expected to be ushered out with the cold front during the late evening and overnight. Strong NW flow on the back side of the cold front facilitates substantial cold air advection limiting our high temperatures on Sunday to around 35 degrees.
122 PM MST Sat Jan 30 2021 Cooler temperatures have settled into the region with highs mostly topping out in the lower 60s across the lower deserts today.
At onset of precip, late Saturday evening/overnight, there's a window just a few hours before daybreak where there's potential for a window where freezing rain will be possible across the highest elevations of northeast Georgia. Still seeing differences in model soundings for the higher elevations and likelihood of freezing rain as temperatures vary, but the potential still exists mainly before daybreak early Sunday.
1154 AM CST Sat Jan 30 2021 Widespread mainly light rain with some embedded pockets of more moderate rainfall will continue into the afternoon ahead of an approaching upper low. Short range/CAMS models maintain earlier thinking for isolated severe storms to develop as instability increases with the arrival of this clearing and a steepening of lapse rates associated with the upper low. A low pressure system will move across the area later today, bringing widespread rain, gusty winds, and some potential for thunderstorms. Temperatures remain above freezing. Temperatures will remain above freezing Sunday (highs in the upper 30s to low 40s), but there is a question of how long drizzle/flurries persist, potentially into Sunday night when temps fall into the mid to upper 20s. Will have to monitor for potential for freezing drizzle or light snow showers.
Otherwise, temperatures did look to be running slightly warmer than previous fcst, therefore blended in hourly consshort which seemed to have a good hold on things. With that, mid VFR will prevail into the late afternoon with a brief period of mid/high VFR possible at CHA/TYS, still low/mid VFR at TRI as warm frontal precipitation/clouds sweep through. CDG Chattanooga Airport, TN 42 61 37 42 30 / 90 50 10 20 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 36 55 36 40 29 / 100 60 30 40 30 Oak Ridge, TN 36 55 35 40 28 / 90 50 30 40 20 Tri Cities Airport, TN 34 53 35 40 28 / 100 70 60 60 30 TN.
Will evaluate the possibility of any freezing drizzle early on in the southwest when the precip begins, though this window of opportunity still looks small.
All activity should be ending before sunset with the loss of daytime "heating", along with the exit of the trough to the east. Quick ridging into the region will bring clear skies back tonight and tomorrow. A strong upper level ridge will come to dominate the first part of the term as models have increased the strength of this ridge.
Upper level analysis places low over southeast Kansas/northeast Oklahoma pushing easterly, with low amplitude ridge over the western CONUS. A few weak short waves noted to the east of the ridge, with one scooting through the northern plains. For the rest of this afternoon into the evening, the transition from some light freezing drizzle to a little light snow will continue to push east through the remainder of the afternoon. On Sunday, western ridge amplifies and starts pushing east.
300 PM EST Sat Jan 30 2021 Rain chances return Sunday along with warmer weather as another low pressure system moves across the Southeast.
Over the advisory area, freezing drizzle continues, and have also continued to advertise the poor visibility in the winter weather advisory. Will continue a mix of freezing drizzle and snow as there really is not a clear transition at this point. Widespread freezing drizzle and dense fog are the two main challenges for the short term. Further south and east, freezing drizzle has become more widespread and should continue through the morning and into the afternoon, tapering off in the west and north through the day.
(This evening through Sunday) Upper level low working its way across Oklahoma this afternoon, dryslotting West Central Texas. A cold front follows the the upper level storm system and pushes across the area late tonight and into Sunday. Gusty north winds for at least part of the day, along with a little cooler temperatures. (Sunday night through next Saturday) Dry and warmer into mid week, under a broad ridge of upper level high pressure.
Continued the winter weather advisory due to road reports/webcams/obs all still indicated ongoing freezing drizzle and icy road conditions. Freezing drizzle has materialized across a good portion of the CWA, especially northern areas. Several web cams across north central SD are also showing evidence of freezing drizzle. Expect the fog and freezing drizzle to persist through the day, with gradual improvements from west to east this evening/overnight. Sunday shows a trend of clearing skies from west to east as warmer air also moves in.
This wind will also help increase moisture across our CWA and lead to rain development over our western zones ahead of an approaching cold front that will move through tonight. Warm, moist advection ahead of the upper-level low will bring warmer temperatures and the chance for showers by this afternoon and evening. Showers will spread east ahead of the system's cold front, mainly driven by top-down processes as the boundary layer will be capped. A tightening pressure gradient with the approaching low pressure system will see gradient winds increase today. The cold front should arrive early tomorrow morning. A period of stronger low-level mixing with the cold front's passage could mix down a few stronger gusts into the early morning hours.
Temperatures are in the lower to mid 70s across the island chain, and EYW and MTH are reporting sustained winds near 15 mph with gusts near 20 mph. High pressure is currently making its way off the Carolina coast, which has tightened the pressure gradient across the Florida Keys. A strong low pressure system currently located over the Midwest will march east and push the anticyclone farther into the Western Atlantic on Sunday afternoon.
225 PM CST Sat Jan 30 2021 Widespread rain with embedded thunderstorms will continue to shift eastward with the mid/upper trough as it translates into the Middle Mississippi Valley area this evening and tonight.
200 PM MST Sat Jan 30 2021 Skies clear overnight as high pressure builds over the region.
833 AM PST Sat Jan 30 2021 The weather this weekend will be dry with a warming trend as high pressure aloft builds over the Southwest.
315 PM EST Sat Jan 30 2021 Rain is beginning to work its way into southern Indiana and central Kentucky ahead of a low pressure system, currently centered over the Oklahoma/Kansas border. Warm air advection will help keep temperatures across the CWA above freezing with temperatures from the mid 30s to low 40s, so even if a few snowflakes mix in with the rain across the northern part of our area this evening, don't expected any slick surface issues. High temperatures tomorrow will see the low 40s in southern Indiana and low 50s in southern Kentucky.
230 PM CST Sat Jan 30 2021 An upper level trough is over the central/southern plains with the base of the trough moving over West Texas and Southeast New Mexico. Strong winds from the base of the trough are mixing down towards the surface resulting in high winds across most of the mountain areas and advisory conditions across the Southeast New Mexico plains and most of the plains of West Texas. The High Wind Warnings and Wind Advisories are in effect until 6 pm CST/5 pm MST today.
930 AM MST Sat Jan 30 2021 MORNING UPDATE: Areas of patchy freezing fog along the MT ND state line through the Yellowstone River Valley and portions of the west near higher terrain. While not amplifed yet a large ridge is beginning to form over the coastline of the Pacific Northwest.
Reports of light freezing rain and sleet have also been received north of I-74 and this mix of wintery precip is expected to continue into the evening. Most snow accumulations will be this evening, along and north of I-74, with the highest amounts of 1-2 inches in far northern to northeastern parts of the CWA. Light snow will continue overnight and then as the weather system moves across the area to the east and colder air arrives from the northwest, the snow area will rotate to the back side of the low pressure area across west central IL. Breezy conditions will continue this evening with gusts of around 25 mph possible before tapering off overnight as the low pressure area moves across the state.
1150 AM CST Sat Jan 30 2021 Freezing drizzle and light snow is still expected today with higher accumulation possible along portions of the North Shore. Soundings continue to support freezing drizzle, especially over our southwest area. However, some freezing drizzle will be possible over northwest Wisconsin and much of northern Minnesota as well. The freezing drizzle will be most likely today then saturation increases tonight with snow the most likely precip type. The high resolution models continue to be quite bullish on QPF along the North Shore today into tonight, but especially today. The GFS/ECMWF ensemble members do not support the high snowfall either. A quieter period is in store Sunday night through through mid week with an upstream ridge eventually moving over the region.
Water vapor imagery reveals an upper low east of the Panhandles. The low pressure system has been responsible for our strong wind speeds today which has also ushered in a cold front in it's wake.
The cold front is currently moving across South Central Texas this afternoon. Winds will calm down overnight out of the northwest, but the combination of continued 5 to 10 mph winds and a more mild initial airmass out of the west will keep overnight lows in the low to upper 40s across the area. Finally some slightly cooler, not just drier air will move in, resulting in highs tomorrow topping out a good 5 to 10 degrees cooler than they were today. While cooler, these afternoon highs will still be running a good 2 to 8 degrees above seasonal normals for the end of January. As winds subside again Sunday night the cooler airmass will take hold. While no freezing temperatures are currently forecast mid 30s across the Edwards Plateau and Hill Country are expected, with upper 30s to near 40s elsewhere.
556 PM CST Sat Jan 30 2021 (This evening through Sunday) Upper level low working its way across Oklahoma this afternoon, dryslotting West Central Texas. A cold front follows the the upper level storm system and pushes across the area late tonight and into Sunday. Gusty north winds for at least part of the day, along with a little cooler temperatures. (Sunday night through next Saturday) Dry and warmer into mid week, under a broad ridge of upper level high pressure.