Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
IFR/MVFR ceilings will continue to affect the terminals through much of the morning, with the lowest of the ceilings likely improving some by mid morning. /Issued 254 AM CDT Sun Jun 4 2017/ The main points of emphasis this morning will be 1) Shower/storm chances with the upper low/trough over the southern Plains thru Monday, 2) nice midweek weather, and finally 3) MCS potential toward the end of the work week. An upper low remains centered over western Oklahoma per latest satellite and short term model data. The upper low will gradually lose definition and transition to an open wave as the KS/CO border wave rotates south/southeast thru the basal portion of the trough. There will be some shower and storm potential along and ahead of the trough axis tonight into Monday.
/issued 354 AM CDT Sun Jun 4 2017/ Initially blocky pattern with the slow moving upper low still in our vicinity but edging slowly to the east today and tonight.
742 AM EDT Sun Jun 4 2017 Moisture will increase in the southerly flow between high pressure off the coast and a cold front approaching from the northwest.
1145 AM EDT Sun Jun 4 2017 Periodic showers and thunderstorms are expected for the first half of the week with the encroachment of a front and cold upper low pressure.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 82 69 81 65 / 80 70 80 50 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 83 67 78 63 / 80 80 80 50 Oak Ridge, TN 83 67 78 63 / 80 80 80 50 Tri Cities Airport, TN 84 64 77 59 / 50 80 90 60.
935 AM EDT Sun Jun 4 2017 An amplified pattern aloft continues this morning with a broad trough across the northwest, ridging across the desert southwest, and another low and trough over the south-central part of the country. At the surface, high pressure over the western Atlantic continues to ridge back westward, with its axis over the northern part of the Florida peninsula. Similar to yesterday, rain chances will be on the high side through the day. KPIE and KTPA still have the highest chances for light to moderate showers this morning, then thunderstorms will be possible for all sites starting this afternoon and continuing through the day. Weak high pressure will remain over the region for the next couple of days, with light winds and seas.
624 AM CDT Sun Jun 4 2017 The 500mb pattern shows a large ridge stretching from the Baja Peninsula up through the 4-corners and eastern MT to Saskatchewan.
High pressure to the north of our region will shift off the southeastern seaboard today, with onshore winds below caution level speeds continuing.
Warmer temperatures will arrive for the first half of the work week before a wetter and cooler pattern returns in the middle to latter parts of the week.
1200 PM EDT Sun Jun 4 2017 Weak high pressure will remain in control of the weather through today. Low pressure moves east from the Great Lakes to the northeast states tonight into Monday. pushing a slow moving cold front across the region by Monday night.
With the rainfall that has already occurred across portions of north central and northwest Alabama, flash flooding could occur with this storm activity ahead of the slow moving cold front. The slower trend with the cold front movement continues with the latest model runs. This trend is likely due to the change in trajectory and progression of the trough over the Great Lakes either becoming cutoff and staying in place longer, or moving off to the northeast. This trough's progression is mainly due to the differences in the model's handling the downstream polar jet dynamics over the western Atlantic.
Strong thunderstorms possible today as a potent cold front moves through the region. A strong cold front will bring showers and thunderstorms to southeast Oregon and southwest Idaho. An upper level trough is sitting just off the west coast as its accompanying surface cold front drapes SW-to-NE across central Oregon and eastern Washington as of 3 AM MDT this morning. Monday will be dry and much cooler, with maximum temperatures near normal.
805 AM PDT Sun Jun 4 2017 Showers will continue today across southeastern Washington and north Idaho as an upper level trough heads into the region. Dry and warmer weather will arrive for the first half of the work week, followed by more unsettled and much cooler weather by the end of the week. The lower atmosphere is stabilizing under this band with rain totals from 5 am-8 am ranging from.
1158 AM CDT Sun Jun 4 2017 A few light showers or sprinkles have continued to percolate across the region early this morning, as a poorly organized trough slowly spins across central Oklahoma.
/issued 359 AM CDT Sun Jun 4 2017/ SHORT TERM (Now through Monday): Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are anticipated to occur during the forecast period as closed 500 mb low pressure over Oklahoma gradually moves southeast into east Texas, with the axis of this feature approaching Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley from the northwest. Above normal temperatures today will climb to well above normal levels on Monday, as surface winds veer out of the southwest and allow for a downsloping effect off the higher terrain of neighboring Mexico.
706 AM CDT Sun Jun 4 2017 A closed low over the southern plains will rejoin the prevailing flow today, eventually shifting southeastward towards the Gulf Coast. As this occurs, a trough will be building into the Great Lakes region. This Northeast trough will help establish northwest flow over the Midwest through much of the period. The cold front mentioned in the short term section above will have moved into southeast MO and southwest IL by Monday morning. A reinforcing PV anomaly will slide southeast around the building Great Lakes trough, which may help to spark a few showers/storms along the front across the far southern CWA late Monday morning into early Monday afternoon.
1014 AM EDT Sun Jun 4 2017 High pressure will remain in place through tonight. Low pressure will move across the eastern Great Lakes Monday pushing a cold front through the area Monday evening. Upper level low pressure will be in control of the weather through midweek. Gulf moisture spreading in along a trough from the TN valley will shift over the area late tonight through Monday. The track of this low will be the dividing line for potential severe weather to the south and more general showers and thunderstorms north. Decent shear around 40kt and looping hodographs are expected south of the low. Rain ends quickly Monday night as the low moves offshore. Closed low pressure lingers over the northern Mid-Atlantic at least through the midweek.
1012 AM EDT Sun Jun 4 2017 A cold front will move south across the area today and tonight causing scattered thunderstorms.
640 AM CDT Sun Jun 4 2017 A mid-upper level low will continue to move slowly eastward across Oklahoma today, before getting shunted southeastward late tonight into Monday, as stronger northern branch upper troughing digs into the western Great Lakes. Mid-level confluent flow on the northern periphery of the low circulation, will combine with daytime heating and anomalously high precipitable water content, resulting in a diurnal enhancement of convective coverage/intensity from about midday through this afternoon. Storms should diminish from northwest to southeast this evening, as the upper low begins the southeastward track. Drier air advection from northeasterly flow in the low-mid levels on Monday and strong insolation should allow highs in the mid-upper 80s.
GAH PREVIOUS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION: Hot and dry conditions continue with upper ridge over the Treasure state today. With high pressure in the Dakotas, southeast winds will be strengthening today bringing some increase in low level moisture. Cold front moves over the western zones during the late night hours, then continues east on Monday, reaching the North Dakota border by early afternoon.
815 AM MST Sun Jun 4 2017 Little change in the weather pattern is expected through mid week, as a strong high pressure system produces mostly clear, dry, and hot weather.
The upper level low that helped trigger the thunderstorm activity yesterday is slowly progressing southward into the southern plains, taking most of the thunderstorm activity with it. Upper level ridging will develop over the Rockies and western high by tonight into Monday with highs rising into the mid to high 80s Monday.
These favorable conditions should continue to slowly advance south as the cold front, mainly moisture gradient, drifts south. The dry air will settle south today and be in the vicinity of the Highway 30/Interstate 80 corridor by noon and south of Interstate 80 by 4 pm. The storm threat will settle south of Iowa tonight with clearing skies and cooler temperatures arriving.
1036 AM EDT Sun Jun 4 2017 A cold front forming near Lake Erie will drop to Northern Ohio today, before traveling south across Ohio on Monday.
1026 AM EDT Sun Jun 4 2017 Dry and sunny again today though a low pressure system slowly drags a cold front through Monday night. Upper low with cooler conditions and showers midweek. High pressure by the end of the week. Elected to raise high temps today a degree or two here and there toward the higher end of the guidance envelope. resulting in mid to upper 80s over the Lowlands. Low pressure wave will move east across southern zones at the start of the period, with showers and thunderstorms, some heavy at times as it does so.
Thinking is as the upper low moves off over Lake Superior most clouds over wrn Ontario will move out as well, however with cylonic flow over ern zones still at 00Z. Since most of the high resolution guidance shows the showers developing just east of the FA, will stick with that route for now. Monday continues to look similar or a tad cooler than today, but still above normal for early June.
A weak upper trough will be replaced by an upper ridge Monday.
A mid level trough may bring some vfr clouds in this evening with isolated showers, mainly north toward Fond du lac and Sheboygan. A cold front late tonight will bring northeast winds and low clouds toward sunrise Monday morning. A mid level trough may bring some vfr clouds in this evening with isolated showers, mainly north toward Fond du lac and Sheboygan. A cold front late tonight will bring northeast winds and ifr cigs toward sunrise Monday morning. The high res HRRR model does show a weak lake Breeze trying to move into portions of the shore areas this afternoon. The approach of the rather strong mid level 500 mb trough from the north this evening, may bring more clouds. A push of colder air occurs late tonight as winds become northeast behind the trough.
Latest guidance continues to indicate isolated to at best scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms, with temperatures topping out in the lower/mid 90s and peak heat index values of 100-105.
737 AM EDT Mon Aug 21 2017 High pressure moving off the Mid Atlantic coast will bring a warm and increasingly humid southerly flow to the region into Tuesday. A strong cold front will move through the region late Tuesday and Tuesday night. Cooler and drier conditions will return for the second half of the week. High pressure will slide off the coast and a warm and more humid airmass will return to the region. Convection will tend to decrease quickly after sunset with a warm and muggy night in store ahead of an approaching cold front.
/issued 414 AM CDT Mon Aug 21 2017/ SHORT TERM (Today through Tuesday):Water vapor satellite imagery shows the center of 500 mb low pressure spinning over the central Gulf of Mexico south of the Mississippi River delta and north of the Yucatan Peninsula. Deeper tropical moisture, combined with the 500 mb low weakening the long-standing 500 mb high pressure ridge, will result in isolated showers and thunderstorms for the immediate three coastal counties of the BRO CWFA as well as all Lower Texas coastal waters.
906 AM PDT Mon Aug 21 2017 A weak trough of low pressure over the Channel Islands will continue to keep a cooler than normal air mass in place through midweek.
Surface wise, our area is between a strong tropical wave in the western Caribbean sea, an elongating tropical wave in the extreme southeast Bahamas and a formidable western Atlantic ridge aligned well north of our region. Temperatures will reach into the lower 90s in many communities with only isolated dime pops.
950 AM EDT Mon Aug 21 2017 High pressure moving off the Mid Atlantic coast will bring a warm and increasingly humid southerly flow to the region into Tuesday. A strong cold front will move through the region late Tuesday and Tuesday night. Cooler and drier conditions will return for the second half of the week. So a warmer day more humid than yesterday.
1010 AM EDT Mon Aug 21 2017 High pressure into Tuesday. Strong cold front late Tuesday into Tuesday night. Cooler and drier high pressure into the weekend. With weak high pressure in control today and tonight, the biggest effect on our weather will be lowering maximum temperatures by 1 to 2 degrees due to the eclipse this afternoon. For tonight, high pressure does slide eastward, but still controls things with a tranquil and mild night. As the uppe level trough digs into the Great Lakes, there will be two actual cold front pushing through the Ohio Valley and the mountains.
1238 PM EDT Mon Aug 21 2017 High pressure centered off the coast will cause increased moisture in a southeast to south flow. However, the moisture will remain shallow because of upper ridging and limit thunderstorm coverage.
The low clouds should thin at least partially before this morning's solar eclipse reaches its maximum obscuration at 1015 AM at North Bend. The high clouds are also expected to thin somewhat this morning. After the eclipse, mid and high level clouds are expected to increase over northern California as a closed low offshore from southern California spreads increasing mid-level moisture northward.
Weak tropical wave will cross the region today in the wake of the upper low exiting westward across the Gulf.
705 AM EDT Mon Aug 21 2017 Above normal temperatures will persist across the Ohio Valley through Monday ahead of a cold front. The cold front will bring showers and thunderstorms on Tuesday, then drier and cooler air moves in for the rest of the week. Tonight a potent upper level system over the Hudson Bay will begin to wrap up into an upper level low and head south. Also at this time the cold front has yet to enter our CWA. However, as the cold front pushes off to our southeast and drier air begins to filter in behind the front, expect pcpn to taper off from the northwest as we head into Tuesday night. This will lead to mainly dry and cooler conditions.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 93 73 93 74 / 10 10 20 30 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 91 72 90 72 / 10 0 20 40 Oak Ridge, TN 90 72 90 73 / 10 0 20 50 Tri Cities Airport, TN 89 66 88 69 / 10 10 20 50.
1101 AM EDT Mon Aug 21 2017 High pressure moving off the Mid Atlantic coast will bring a warm and increasingly humid southerly flow to the region into Tuesday. A strong cold front will move through the region late Tuesday and Tuesday night. Cooler and drier conditions will return for the second half of the week. So a warmer day more humid than yesterday.
Widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected on Tuesday as a cold front crosses the region. By Tuesday, strong low pressure is forecast to track across the Great Lakes, pulling a cold front toward the Ohio Valley. Showers and thunderstorms are expected as the front approaches, and as a prefrontal trough tracks across the area.
Otherwise, upper and surface ridging will keep conditions VFR with light and variable winds at all TAF sites.
/issued 346 AM CDT Mon Aug 21 2017/ A broad subtropical ridge extends from west to east from the Southern Plains into the western Atlantic this morning. Temperatures today will be near climatology for late August with highs in the low to mid 90s. Rain chances will be on the increase Tuesday afternoon as a cold front approaches the area from the north.
Still a slight chance of showers & thunderstorms late this afternoon over the highest peaks of Riverside and San Bernardino Counties and in the high desert late this afternoon on the very western fringe of a mid level monsoonal flow from Northern Sonora. A weak low pressure system off the Southern California coast will keep high temperatures a few degrees below average today with areas of low clouds with patchy fog and drizzle extending into portions of the inland valleys this morning.
704 AM EDT Mon Aug 21 2017 A weak upper level trough has returned low rain chances to the forecast today. Widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected with the approach and passage of a Tuesday cold front. By Tuesday, strong low pressure is forecast to track across the Great Lakes, pulling a cold front toward the Ohio Valley. Showers and thunderstorms are expected as the front approaches, and as a pre frontal trough tracks across the area.
/issued 338 AM CDT Mon Aug 21 2017/ Subtropical ridge centered off the NC coast stretches to TX with a closed low over the CA coast. Circulation between this high and low pulling Pacific moisture across Mexico and into SE NM and W TX. This low will spin over CA the next several days before lifting NE over the ridge late in the week. By the weekend the ridge will build over the Western US.
925 AM EDT Mon Aug 21 2017 High pressure will build south of the area today. Low pressure will approach from the west on Tuesday.
902 AM PDT Mon Aug 21 2017 A weak trough of low pressure over the Channel Islands will continue to keep a cooler than normal air mass in place through midweek.
High pressure will be Northeast of the region Today, leading to onshore flow.
743 AM EDT Mon Aug 21 2017 High pressure centered off the coast will cause increased moisture in a southeast to south flow. However, the moisture will remain shallow because of upper ridging and limit thunderstorm coverage.
A decrease in monsoon moisture today will limit convection to mainly the higher terrain of Gila County through Tuesday.
935 AM CDT Mon Aug 21 2017 Upper level ridging remains in place across the Four State Region this morning with the effects of an upper level low pressure system across the Central Gulf of Mexico actually helping to advect some drier air into the region from the south and east.
Biggest change from last nights sounding is the increase in moisture and slightly cooler profile. This is occurring as meso- ridge waves rotate around the low to mid level stacked high centered near the Carolinas.
730 AM EDT Mon Aug 21 2017 High pressure will bring dry and seasonably hot weather to the region for the start of the work week.
But this is still ahead of the cold front which should push through in the very near term.
722 PM EST Tue Dec 12 2017 A strong cold front will push offshore tonight. Latest sfc analysis shows ~996 mb low pressure centered over NY state with an attendant cold front stretching south through the middle of the fa.
655 PM EST Tue Dec 12 2017 Cold and windy conditions are expected tonight in the wake of a strong cold front. High pressure will briefly build in to the area Wednesday. Still expect temperatures to tumble shortly as upstream locations have experienced hourly temperature drops of 5-8 degrees within an hour of the passage of the 925-850mb trough.
651 PM EST Tue Dec 12 2017 Northwest winds remain elevated/gusty this evening as a deep trough pivots into New England. At the surface, the cold front has exited off the southeast coast with high pressure building into the region from the west. Add wind and this will lead to wind chills in the the single digits up in the higher elevations to upper teens/low 20s by sunrise. Cold front moving through the state will bring drier and cooler air to the state into late week.
Little change to the overall pattern through much of the week as a ridge of high pressure remains over the region.
614 PM CST Tue Dec 12 2017 A weak cold front will bring a wind shift to all TAF sites on Wednesday. Cooler and less breezy than yesterday, Tuesday has remained calm, with afternoon temperatures slowly creeping into the lower 50s through 2 PM.
422 PM MST Tue Dec 12 2017 Upper level analysis has highly amplified flow with a trof across the East Coast, and large ridge across the western CONUS. At the surface, low pressure is located across south central Canada, with the warm front through the eastern Dakotas.
Winds tonight will start to increase, mainly over the higher elevations, but some of the lower elevations east of the mountains are expected to see westerly surface winds develop overnight. High temps on Wed are expected to be cooler than today, with mostly 50s acrs the southeast plains and the upper Arkansas River valley, and in the 40s or around 50 in the San Luis Valley.
/issued 334 PM CST Tue Dec 12 2017/ A deep trough continues to affect the eastern CONUS with an upstream Rex Block in place across the west. This pattern will persist for a few more days but the ridge will gradually shift west over the Pacific, signaling a synoptic pattern change.
High pressure will spread over the area the next 24 hours, yielding relatively unremarkable aviation weather conditions. A weak return flow will develop Wednesday afternoon, shifting winds from north to southeast as high pressure over Texas moves farther east and lower pressure develops upstream, but moisture will still be rather limited at that point, as will any significant cloud development. Weak Cold Front Moves Through The Lower Rio Grande Valley. SHORT TERM (Tonight through Wednesday Night): The cold front has passed through the region earlier this morning, but there was minimal visible signal to its passing. Skies will remain mostly clear tonight, and with dewpoints falling into the 30s, expect lows tonight to be about 5 degrees below this mornings low, generally in the low 40s areawide. Lows will still fall into the lower 50s with clear skies.
1000 PM EST Tue Dec 12 2017 Cold front crossing central FL early this evening will not bring any clouds or rain, just a wind shift out of the NW and reinforcing cold air overnight.
Sfc ridging will move into the region tonight from Cntrl LA, resulting in calm/Lt and Vrb winds overnight. However, this ridging will weaken after daybreak Wednesday, with the pressure gradient expected to tighten by mid to late morning ahead of cold front entering the Srn Plains and Ozarks region by afternoon. /issued 250 PM CST Tue Dec 12 2017/ Beautiful yet cooler conditions today compared to 24 hours ago with afternoon temperatures still just a few degrees shy of 60 degrees. For this reason, have undercut MOS temps overnight for most areas which should result in near freezing temperatures for most areas overnight. Another dry cold front will be approaching the I-30 Corridor after sunset Wednesday Evening with the front expected to push through our region Wednesday Night.
/issued 254 PM CST Tue Dec 12 2017/ Nice winter day across the region with temperatures in the low to mid 60s with strong sun.
Guidance and our official forecast have been running about 1-3 degrees too warm, on average, for lows recently so the model consensus for lows is in the lower 20s but it's likely that a few spots will drop to the upper teens. Slight ridging at the mid levels will help push in warmer temps. Both of these, along with sunny skies, will push temps slightly warmer than today, in the lower to middle 50s. This is most likely in the northern part of the area, closer to the low and the LLJ.
But there will still be a minor overlap of the two leading to very cold wind chills, specifically in the higher terrain of the Southern Appalachian Mountains where a wind chill advisory is in effect tonight. Chattanooga Airport, TN 25 47 33 50 / 0 0 10 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 21 44 30 44 / 0 0 10 10 Oak Ridge, TN 22 43 30 44 / 0 0 10 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 16 39 27 41 / 10 0 20 10 TN.
435 PM MST Tue Dec 12 2017 Yet another pleasant day on tap thanks to the high pressure to our west while temperatures are running anywhere from 1 to 6 degrees warmer than yesterday.
An upper ridge axis was located over coastal portions of NRN CA Tuesday afternoon. Farther west, a trough was positioned over the WRN Gulf of Alaska.