Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
222 AM EDT Mon Aug 7 2017 High pressure slowly exits to our south and east this morning. Low pressure will develop over the mid Atlantic region late today and pass southeast of Cape Cod Tuesday morning accompanied by a steadier and heavier period of rainfall. a weak ridge was centered over the Connecticut Valley of New England. the weak ridge retreats offshore this morning. Precipitation tapers from southwest to northeast Tuesday morning as the low and upper trough slide well offshore.
This is due to ridging over the southwestern CONUS.
256 AM PDT Mon Aug 7 2017 Low pressure stalled over northern California will produce thunderstorms through midweek with heavy rainfall possible.
Little change is expected through Monday as a weak upper level trough remains over northern California, maintaining a moderately deep marine layer. A slight inland warming trend is then expected around midweek as the upper level ridge to our southeast strengthens a bit.
With upper troughing pulling out to the east and surface ridging pretty much right overhead.
355 AM EDT Mon Aug 7 2017 Scattered rainshowers will spread northeast across the area today as low pressure tracks across the Upper Ohio Valley. The low will move off the Mid Atlantic Coast this evening as high pressure builds East over the forecast area.
Broad cyclonic flow extends from the Northern Plains to the Great Lakes and New England with weak upper ridging across the Desert Southwest. With the ridge axis positioned across the northern peninsula, weak east to southeast flow will persist, with scattered showers and storms developing first over inland counties, then spreading westward toward the Gulf coast. Highs will once again reach the low to mid 90s most areas.
Possible a few additional -shra could develop next several hours across southern CWA as mid-level low pressure trof passes through. Otherwise expect widespread mid-clouds to decrease through the morning from the north as drier air in the low to mid levels. Mostly clear conditions expected tonight as high pressure settles over the area. Will include some patchy late night fog in far western CWA late tonight due to proximity to low level ridge axis located farther to the south.
458 AM CDT Mon Aug 7 2017 (Today and Tonight) Latest surface analysis shows remnants of a weak cold front across the Concho Valley early this morning. Temperatures expected to be cooler today, with highs mainly in the 80s and lower 90s, which may limit the damaging wind threat. (Tuesday through Monday) A chance of thunderstorms lingers into Tuesday as a weak upper ridge remains to the west across southern New Mexico. A series of weak wave will rotate southward around the east side of the ridge, with showers and storms possible Tuesday and Tuesday night. Rain chances end for most of the area through the end of the work week as the ridge slides eastward into west Texas.
Expect greater shower and thunderstorm coverage today with more moisture in place and the upper level low over northern California. Clouds will limit instability today to along the Nevada border and in the higher terrain of Southwest Idaho. The upper level low weakens and shifts back westward off the coast of Northern California on Tuesday. This should keep enough moisture over the forecast area for afternoon showers and thunderstorms mainly over the higher terrain.
348 AM CDT Mon Aug 7 2017 High pressure over the northern Plains will drift southeast into Iowa by Tuesday morning. As the high continues to build into Iowa tonight, expect drier boundary layer air to push south into our area. Below normal temperatures will continue tonight ranging from the mid 50s closest to the high where lower dew point temperatures will prevail, to the mid 60s over the eastern Ozarks where it will be more moist with some cloud cover potentially lingering.
332 AM CDT Mon Aug 7 2017 An area of high pressure building into the region this morning is producing light and variable winds. High temperatures will range in the upper 70s, to the lower 80s. The high pressure will drift southeast of the region later tonight with southerly winds developing over the western Dakotas. A low pressure system approaching the region from the northwest will cause a weak LLJ to develop in eastern SD with showers and thunderstorms possible Tuesday night.
Expect cooler temperatures and continued breezy conditons today, as a cold front moves through the area. Cool conditions will persist over the weekend as strong low pressure moves into the southern Great Basin.
but it wont feel fall like as temperatures reach the lower 90s in most locations once again. Area 12z soundings a little cooler than those of 24 hours ago. Rain chances will begin to increase by the start of the next work week as a cold front approaches.
An offshore upper level ridge will bring clearing skies today and a little warming today and Saturday.
Temperatures will top out in the 60s northwest of Mobridge, to the 80s and low 90s across eastern SD and western MN.
High pressure aloft will remain sprawled across the eastern third of the country, as troughing occurs across the western part of the CONUS. Temperatures today will once again be above normal for September, with highs expected to reach the lower 90s. However, coverage is expected to be on the low side as was the case yesterday. /28/ The period will start out with a rather amplified synoptic regime across the CONUS as a stout longwave trough digs over the western states. This will help to amplify downstream ridging from the Central Plains through the Midwest, but the ArkLaMiss will remain relatively spared from the higher heights and thus heat stress issues thanks to an upper-level low retrograding beneath the ridge.
1100 AM EDT Fri Sep 22 2017 Fair weather high pressure will keep temperatures mild and skies mainly clear through the weekend. A persistent upper atmospheric ridge will strengthen through Saturday, pushing temperatures well above normal for late- September. As the ridge strengthens Saturday, temperatures will push into the lower and middle-80s across the region.
A large upper level low will continue to dig into the Western United States through the short term period. Winds will continue to be breezy and from a southerly direction due to a trough of low pressure across eastern Colorado. As for temperatures, highs today look to reach into the low to mid 90s with lows tonight ranging from the low 60s along the KS/CO border to low 70s across central and south central Kansas.
High pressure remains positioned from New England down to the Tennessee Valley. A mid-level ridge of high pressure will expand northeast into the Great Lakes region through the short term.
An upper ridge with the axis oriented southwest to northeast from the Big Bend of the Rio Grande to the Great Lakes continues to build, while a long wave trough digs over the Western CONUS. Daytime temperatures will continue to be above normal through the weekend, generally in the low to mid 90s.
Satellite this morning shows upper low centered over Idaho with clouds rotating around the low into eastern and central Oregon. 12z models continue to show upper ridge building into the region this weekend with fair weather.
A warm front was located across central MN to Lake Superior with a strong cold front in the eastern Dakotas. Today: High pressure surface and aloft will provide plenty of sunshine (patchy cirrus) along with humid conditions. Afternoon temperatures will soar into the lower 90s at many locations, and a couple of mid 90s can't be ruled out, depending on amount of mixing.
/issued 338 AM CDT Fri Sep 22 2017/ The synoptic pattern is highlighted by SW-NE oriented upper-level ridge extending from the Southern Plains into the Great Lakes. Post-Tropical Storm Jose is located just east of this ridge off the New England coast and a deep, quasi-stationary trough is noted over the western CONUS. The pattern is expected to chance little over the next 24 hours, but the ridge is progged to slide a bit farther north as we move into the weekend. Weak capping associated with the ridge aloft should limit the coverage of diurnal convection. As the ridge slides north this weekend, slight cooling in the mid-levels should put temperatures on a very slow cooling trend.
The focus in the short term will be the change to much cooler weather with the arrival of autumn and the increasing chances for showers and some thunderstorms. A secondary cold front will also be a focus for showers today. Tonight scattered showers will be highlighted across the region as the upper trough moves east and teh region will be in an active southwest flow aloft.
/issued 238 AM CDT Fri Sep 22 2017/ Wx map shows weak high pressure over the Southeast U. Increased moisture from the Eastern Gulf coupled with an deepening upper level low over the Southeast U.
626 AM CDT Fri Sep 22 2017 Water vapor satellite this morning shows ridging aloft extended from northern Mexico/Texas northeast into Quebec. Troughing extended from the Rockies toward Hudsons Bay. Very little eastward movement in this pattern is expected through the weekend as the tropical systems over the Atlantic hold the ridge in place which in turn keeps the troughing over the Rockies. Very little movement is expected in the low levels as well with ridging remaining over the eastern conus. The cold front that is over the Dakotas this morning will not move much through tonight.
Low to mid level southwest flow continues downstream of the western CONUS trough.
A cold core upper low to the west of Utah will drift slowly east into and then across the state this weekend. Satellite imagery shows the now developed upper low centered roughly over extreme southwest Idaho this morning. A vorticity lobe rotating quickly north along the east side of the upper low should exit northwest Utah shortly, taking any remaining organized light precip with it into eastern Idaho. A second vorticity lobe just clearing the Sierras on the southern periphery of the upper low will turn northeast across western and northern Utah later this afternoon. This dynamic feature will bring modestly cooler mid-level air into northwest Utah to increase elevated instability. Looking at relative lull in precip late Friday night through early Saturday afternoon as the upper low center drifts south towards southern Nevada/southwest Utah.
Fall officially begins this afternoon and cooler weather will certainly come in the future, but it won't be today. Ridging influences sfc/aloft should prevail thru 23/12Z with the development of sct CU fields after 22/14Z.
Pattern generally unchanged from yesterday, with an upper level trof axis remaining just to the east of our forecast today. This trof will likely close off into a weak upper low over the Gulf just to the east-southeast of the area tonight. Extending up toward the northwest across the forecast area, upper ridging continues there, and on up to the northwest of there. 12/DS On Saturday a westward moving broad mid-level inverted trough over the southeast should provide the lift needed to produce scattered convection from an already moist and unstable atmosphere.
Surface wise, our region lies on the southern periphery of a weak continental anticyclone centered over the mid Atlantic states, with a subtle trough aligned down just offshore of the Sunshine State. Although our region will lie on the southern periphery of a weak mid and upper level ridge, a deepening, albeit modest northeast to east trajectory will allow additional moisture to filter into our region.
Cooler temperatures are expected today under cloudy skies and strong cold air advection. The focus in the short term will be the change to much cooler weather with the arrival of autumn and the increasing chances for showers and some thunderstorms. A secondary cold front will also be a focus for showers today. Tonight scattered showers will be highlighted across the region as the upper trough moves east and teh region will be in an active southwest flow aloft.
An upper level high pressure ridge that extends from the Upper Great Lakes southwestward into northeast Texas will keep convection limited to the coastal plains today. Otherwise, more clouds than sunshine and highs in the lower 90s much locations to finish up the work week.
616 AM CDT Fri Sep 22 2017 An upper level ridge of high pressure continues to dominate our regional weather today with another very warm afternoon in store. High temperatures will be back in the lower 90s again today with southerly breezes 10 to 15 mph. The upper level ridge continues to hold on to our weather pattern on Saturday with another very warm day with highs in the upper 80s to near 90 degrees.
/Issued 335 AM EDT Fri Sep 22 2017/ A broad area of high pressure extending from the Great Lakes region into the south central U. will remain in place through the short term with a weak upper low continuing to linger over the southeast.
H850 temps of 18C+ keeping temps above average in the upper 80s and low 90s, although NAM guidance tries to knock those values down into the 16-17C range by tomorrow afternoon, so perhaps a degree or two cooler, especially in higher terrain across northern AR. Southerly flow relaxes a bit today as the tight pressure gradient across the High Plains is buffered by the ridge. Models in good agreement slowly nudging an upper low our way as the period ends, which would predominantly result in increased cloud cover across the southern counties.
A cutoff upper low will gradually drift southwestward over our area today amidst weak upper level flow. Despite the instability and upper low, coverage of showers and thunderstorms should remain isolated during peak heating hours due to the drier air being advected into our area.
Showers continue across the Treasure Valley this morning, as the area of low pressure continues to impact the state. Morning satellite pics showing a well defined upper level low centered north of the Treasure Valley. The circulation is expected to drift southwestward into Malheur county by midday with precipitation development focusing to the north and west of the low center. Drier conditions develop tonight into Saturday as the upper low fills in and gradually moves eastward.
Increasing moisture/clouds/precip expected today in assoc with a weak inverted trough along the east coast and expected inland moving diffuse east coast sea breeze this afternoon. Weak inverted trough along the coast this morning forecast to push westward.
956 AM EDT Fri Sep 22 2017 Low level east to northeast flow around high pressure over the eastern U.
VFR conditions are then expected for the rest of today into tonight under high pressure. Plenty of sunshine is expected today with southern Wisconsin sitting under the western portion of high pressure. It will stay mild and dry tonight as high pressure builds more into the area from the east.
Temperatures will approach record high territory, with highs in the lower to mid 90s. Water vapor satellite this morning shows ridging aloft extended from northern Mexico/Texas northeast into Quebec. Troughing extended from the Rockies toward Hudsons Bay. Very little eastward movement in this pattern is expected through the weekend as the tropical systems over the Atlantic hold the ridge in place which in turn keeps the troughing over the Rockies. Very little movement is expected in the low levels as well with ridging remaining over the eastern conus. The cold front that is over the Dakotas this morning will not move much through tonight.
/issued 351 AM CDT Fri Sep 22 2017/ Strong upper trough centered over ID this morning extends down across CA to the Pacific. This trough will slowly push east as it tries to dislodge the upper ridge center over the Eastern US. Should be a few degrees cooler today but still well above normal with highs mainly in the 90s.
A strong upper level ridge in place will maintain mostly clear skies through the entire TAF period. Early morning satellite imagery and model analysis fields indicate the upper level ridge axis centered directly over lower Michigan where it will remain through the weekend.
Expect the rest of the day to be dry as the upper jet gets further separated from the weakening surface convergence, and the upper ridge to our north and west takes control. This development will not last long though, as the low-level convergence weakens by daybreak and the upper jet travels SSW away from the area. Deep high pressure will continue to dominate the weather for the Midwest today and Saturday.
Meanwhile, return flow will be on the increase in response to leeside troughing on the Front Range. /issued 351 AM CDT Fri Sep 22 2017/ Strong upper trough centered over ID this morning extends down across CA to the Pacific. This trough will slowly push east as it tries to dislodge the upper ridge center over the Eastern US. Should be a few degrees cooler today but still well above normal with highs mainly in the 90s.
Afternoon temperatures will run a few degrees above normal with highs in the lower 90s with overnight lows in the low to mid 70s. A powerful trough will become established across the western U. at the start of the medium range period, with broad and potent upper level ridging over the Great Lakes and Mississippi Valley region. As high pressure remains anchored to the north, low level easterly flow will persist over the weekend. This combined with a weak upper low over the central Gulf of Mexico will allow for scattered showers and thunderstorms which may linger into Saturday Night.
Highs today should reach the lower to middle 90s inland, with a lake breeze keeping highs cooler near Lake Michigan. Saturday's highs should be in the upper 80s to lower 90s, again cooler near Lake Michigan with a lake breeze. Heat index values Saturday should be in the lower 90s, with some middle 90s in spots.
Meanwhile, isolated showers are noted across areas in the Lower to Middle RGV. For the last day of the work week, deep south Texas remains under a broad area of weak ascent with a large H5 trough digging across the northwestern CONUS. Meanwhile, weak ridge has shifted south over Mexico with a weak area of low pressure aloft over the northeastern Gulf.
Anchored PAC NW upper level trough will continue to support a stalled ll baroclinic zone over the region today. Advancing front side upper level impulse is supporting a decent sfc cyclone over central SD this morning with this system expected to lift NE through the day. Another impulse will eject into the Rockies out of the deep upper low over the NW CONUS. Active SW flow will remain over the region through the weekend as the broad western trough moves east and front side impulses rotate through the flow. Some snow still looks possible tonight, in the highest elevations.
Expect some afternoon convection to develop across the higher terrain of East Tennesee/SW NC. Mean flow out of the northeast will help to keep any cells that do develop to track SW while remaining over the higher terrain this afternoon, although coverage is expected to be modest at best. Chattanooga Airport, TN 88 66 87 65 / 10 10 10 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 87 65 87 64 / 10 10 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 88 65 87 64 / 10 10 10 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 85 60 86 58 / 10 0 0 0.
625 AM CDT Fri Sep 22 2017 A significant mid-level trough from the northern Inter-mountain region into Great Basin early this morning will slowly edge east through the Interior West this weekend.
For today, high temperatures in the interior will be about 10 degrees warmer than yesterday. The broad upper level trough that caused the wet and cool weather over our area would slowly move towards the east. The upper level ridge will build into the West Coast from the west.
614 AM CDT Fri Sep 22 2017 Broad ridging over the Mississippi Valley and deep southwest flow aloft over the eastern Rockies will continue to result in above normal temperatures and humid conditions through at least Saturday for the entirety of the CWA.
638 AM CDT Fri Sep 22 2017 A large upper trough/low will continue to settle into the Southwestern states into this weekend. In addition, the main focus area for showers/thunderstorms will be near the lee trough over western Kansas, and along a slow, southward moving cold front in Nebraska.
312 AM EDT Wed Aug 9 2017 This evening through Tonight: A cold front sagging south across Lake Superior late this afternoon will become nearly stationary this evening across much of the U. Wednesday: The aforementioned cold front/stationary front is expected to drift slowly northward by mid afternoon as a weak warm front. Nam shows a 500 mb trough over the upper Great Lakes 12z Thu and this forms a closed low over the upper Great Lakes by 00z Fri. This trough then slowly moves east into the lower Great Lakes through 12z Sat. In the extended, GFS and ECMWF show a 500 mb trough over the Great Lakes region 12z Sat with troughing into the northern plains. This troughing remains over the area through Wed.
The lead edge invasion slows to a 1-2F drop in 6 hours time, along our southern tier counties, now running in the lower half of the 60s. We can see the anticyclone's circulation center approximately over northwest IL, modeled reasonably well. The models have consistently shifted it eastward while expanding its ridge's grip across the entirety of the middle and lower Ohio river valley over the course of the next 24-48 hours. That turns out to be important, as dew points slowly creep upward to our south and east, with Gulf sourced moisture streaming north along an inverted trof, as well as to our west, coincident with upper height falls whose genesis yields an approaching cold front.
Water vapor imagery shows a positively tilted upper trough extending from NY/PA southwestward through the Ohio Valley into the Mississippi Valley with southwesterly flow aloft over the forecast area. Temperatures will again show a low diurnal range with extensive clouds and rainfall with highs in the lower 80s. Weak upper troughiness to remain over the region. Surface front to remain stalled over the region, perhaps shift north some as a warm front. Upper troughiness to dig slightly over the E CONUS.
254 AM EDT Wed Aug 9 2017 A cold front will stall over North Carolina through Thursday as high pressure builds north of the region.
131 AM EDT Wed Aug 9 2017 High pressure will keep dry weather and seasonal temperatures over the region through Thursday.
Today Through Thursday Night High pressure to the northeast of Arkansas will continue to produce a light northeasterly surface flow across the state. Thus tonight should be notably warmer than the last few nights, with lows in the 70s being much more commonplace.
A upper level trough centered off the northern California coast will continue to eject a series of weak weather disturbances across northern Utah and southwest Wyoming today and tonight.
sprawling high pressure remains across the Western Atlantic and reaching the Florida peninsula, keeping a brisk southeasterly wind flow in place through Wednesday. Model guidance show the high pressure system weakening for the end of the work week, allowing for a mid-upper trough to approach South Florida.
Therefore temperatures are correspondingly some 5-7 degrees warmer than to this point yesterday. The upstream upper low will slowly dig southeast into the upper midwest toward daybreak Thursday, then shift across central Lake Michigan Thursday night. KMD 320 AM CDT The front will shift south into central Illinois, leading to continued cooler than normal conditions.
Meanwhile, a ridge of high pressure is centered over portions of the Ohio and Middle Mississippi Valleys. A quasi-stationary boundary over Southern Mississippi will gradually begin to lift back north as a warm front across Central Mississippi today and into the Mid-South by tonight.
646 AM EDT Wed Aug 9 2017 VFR conditions will persist for the rest of the night and through the upcoming day thanks to high pressure building from the mid Mississippi Valley across the southern Great Lakes. Dry boundary layer will promote well-mixed conditions favoring another round of overachieving temps reaching the low 80s. Thursday will represent a transition day as the approaching wave shunts high pressure to the east and southerly return flow commences.