Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
328 PM CDT Wed Jul 1 2020 An upper level high pressure system will finally try to overcome the mid/upper level low that has been plaguing the region over the past several days. There still may be a remnant of the low out over MO, so that is where the activity could be more scattered than isolated in nature. A large ridge of high pressure will take up residence over the forecast area through Wednesday.
259 PM EDT Wed Jul 1 2020 Generally uneventful weather will continue through the rest of the week as high pressure remains across the region.
TFJ An upper low will drift slowly north across Alberta while a second upper low develops over British Columbia and drops an upper trough into the Pacific NW the next few days. Meanwhile, flow aloft will from the SW over Montana while an upper ridge builds into the central US.
Quiet weather looks to continue for Thursday as upper level ridge axis builds to the east.
Upper level high retrogrades into the Southwest US over the July 4th Holiday Weekend. Meanwhile, low upper heights persist across the Southeastern US in the wake of the retreating Eastern US trough.
1131 AM MDT Wed Jul 1 2020 Upper level flow will gradually shift to the southwest today as the broad Pacific trough continues to swing to the northeast. The jet rounding the base of the trough will sit over the far northern tier of the forecast area today. As the aforementioned Pacific trough migrates into Canada Wednesday night and into Thursday, a ridge of high pressure will build over the central CONUS.
The holiday weekend will average slightly warmer than normal. Little change in the overall pattern is expected for the remainder of this week as California sits between a nearly stationary upper level low near Vancouver and a ridge of high pressure over Texas.
147 PM EDT Wed Jul 1 2020 Low Pressure over New England will move offshore tonight. Meanwhile, high pressure over the Plains will also shift east and move over the Midwest. As high pressure edges into the region through the weekend, warm and muggy conditions will continue with temperatures near or just above normal.
The axis of an upper trof which extends from near the mid Mississippi River valley to the Virginias (and to an upper low over the extreme northeast states) shifts southward through Thursday into the forecast area. With the southward progression of the upper trof, the frontal boundary follows suite and shifts southward to extend across northern Mississippi and northern Alabama by Thursday. The upper trof pattern has set up a northwesterly steering flow over the region such that convection that develops along the frontal boundary will be favored to progress southward/southeastward in the general direction towards the forecast area. The attention now turns to what will transpire with the convective complex over Missouri along with the southward progressing upper trof and frontal boundary. Lows tonight range from the lower 70s inland to the upper 70s at the coast.
Another busy convective day expected again on Thursday as upper trough digs into the southeast with upstream convection likely moving se into the area.
As of 3am, there is ongoing convection mainly along the Highway 81 corridor and moving eastward into eastern Nebraska. Most of the high or higher resolution guidance keep the area dry. The upper ridge will begin to broaden into the weekend and persist. On Thursday night a weak wave moves northeast and helps to fire convection across the High Plains. As the ridge builds in, cannot rule out off and on showers and thunderstorms, but do think for most it will be a dry week. This deck would potentially be IFR or MVFR, but the overall moisture profile looks to be more favorable near the sfc, so decided to go with the lower IFR cigs.
443 PM EDT Wed Jul 1 2020 Generally uneventful weather will continue through the rest of the week as high pressure remains across the region.
The forecast as we head into the Holiday weekend is not totally clear cut, as the upper level ridge center over the Midwest looks to sag south, and lower Michigan resides at the top of the ridge with 500 MB heights actually slowly lowering through the weekend.
The low level easterly component flow will also result in modest deep layer shear for any storms that develop. Convective chances look a bit better later on Thursday along the frontal boundary in southern Kansas where slightly cooler mid-level temperatures will reside.
333 PM CDT Wed Jul 1 2020 Upper level ridging across the central US will keep conditions dry through most of Thursday.
1255 PM CDT Wed Jul 1 2020 One more challenging day to forecast, before slightly drier and warmer weather takes hold over the region.
250 PM CDT Wed Jul 1 2020 Satellite imagery this afternoon shows a messy amplified pattern in place across the Nation, with a rather squished ridge axis across the center of the Nation, stuck between a large pair of cutoff lows over the east and west coasts. For tonight into Thursday, with the squished ridge axis still across the Central Plains, we will be once again watching for nocturnal thunderstorms as the overnight jet will likely find some instability to kick off more storms.
A ridge of high pressure will persist with temperatures in the 90s along the coast and near 105 across the Brush Country.
High pressure will continue to sit over the Great Lakes through the weekend. The winds will then become more variable through the end of the week as the high pressure moves westward and strengthens. The pattern of high pressure to our east and a trough of low pressure to our west persists.
Winds shift to the southeast tomorrow as lee troughing develops across eastern Colorado. As for temperatures, lows tonight are progged to range from the low 60s across west central Kansas to low 70s across south central Kansas.
352 PM CDT Wed Jul 1 2020 Mid level ridging associated with a Saharan Air Layer (SAL) will persist through Thursday.
354 PM EDT Wed Jul 1 2020 The cutoff low pressure area will slowly move southeast of the forecast area tonight. A cold front will drop south through the area tomorrow bringing a threat of additional showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon.
132 PM MDT Wed Jul 1 2020 Going upper air pattern has a strong upper low over western Canada/Pacific NW this afternoon.
223 PM CDT Wed Jul 1 2020 (Tonight and Thursday) 1 pm temperatures today are about 2-5 degrees higher than at this time yesterday, while dewpoints are ranging from the low to mid 60s in our extreme western areas to low to mid 70s elsewhere. Once again, wind shear will be weak (around 25 KT from 0-6 km) and ML CAPE will be very high due to the high dewpoints/hot temperatures (3000+ J/KG). Thursday, the 850 mb thermal ridge will weaken a little, with highs slightly lower (in the mid to upper 90s, to perhaps touching 100 in some locations), while dewpoints will continue to be in the mid 60s to low 70s.
333 PM EDT Wed Jul 1 2020 The period will begin with increasing 500mb heights as ridging pushes east.
A hot and generally dry period is expected from late this week into the weekend as an upper level ridge persists.
327 PM CDT Wed Jul 1 2020 Convection has remained mostly across the eastern part of the forecast area closer to where the troughing is occurring to our east. To our west, a ridge is building and this will leave the forecast area under northwest flow aloft. As temperatures rise into the lower 90s, especially in the west, and dewpoints remain in the mid to upper 70s, this will bring heat stress to near 105 degrees. The synoptic pattern will be characterized by stout ridging across the Central and Southern Plains with a mean longwave trough across the Pacific Northwest. Meanwhile, across the southeast states, weak troughing will persist both aloft and at the surface. Will keep the HWO/graphics clear of heat stress for now as forecast heat index values are expected to generally remain in the low 100s.
1258 PM MDT Wed Jul 1 2020 18Z Water Vapor Imagery and RAP analysis indicate broad WSW flow occurring across much of the plains with ridge axis over the Great Lakes extending to the south into the Gulf Coast.
The surface moisture boundary is ever so slowly sinking south, with dewpoints dropping into the low 60s closer to southern Ohio/SE Indiana.
We still can't rule out redevelopment along trough axis this afternoon in our east, but main instability axis still looks to be east and south of our area, lowering potential for impactful thunderstorm activity. Latest RAP guidance was a tad cooler over my northwest this aftn and latest short term update reflects that thinking. Therefore, any days where the 90+ temperatures occur, combined with the high dew point values, will result in heat indices in the mid 90s. Ensemble 700mb temperatures show the FA being just north of the +10C line, so will have the potential for ridge riders every day.
An upper level high pressure system will finally try to overcome the mid/upper level low that has been plaguing the region over the past several days. There still may be a remnant of the low out over MO, so that is where the activity could be more scattered than isolated in nature. A large ridge of high pressure will take up residence over the forecast area through Wednesday.
Tomorrow, high temperatures should climb into the lower 90s areawide except along the lakeshore where a lake breeze will push inland. Borchardt 248 AM CDT A broad mid-level ridge building across the central CONUS will bring a (likely) dry and warm extended holiday weekend to the area. Fairly persistent 850 hPa temps of 18-19C should support daytime temps in the low 90s.
A cold upper low is right over the area today, with lots of clouds, showers and brisk wind.
A low-mid level east-west aligned ridge axis is located across the southern Florida Peninsula and the Keys.
Tomorrow, high temperatures should climb into the lower 90s areawide except along the lakeshore where a lake breeze will push inland. Borchardt 218 PM CDT Aside for the low potential for a stray afternoon shower or storm, much of the upcoming weekend is looking to be dry but hot as an upper level ridge dominates across the region. Very warm 925 temperatures (26-28C degrees) under this ridge will support highs in the low to mid 90s each day, especially inland from the lake. However, closer to the lake, a persistent onshore wind will keep temperatures several degrees cooler.
Weak high pressure will be over the region Thursday into the weekend. The trough is expected to slowly drift into the Coastal Plain tonight. Mostly clear are forecast under the ridging on Thursday night.
Showers and maybe a thunderstorm or two will fill into the rest of central Idaho and western Montana this afternoon as a low pressure circulation moves eastward out of eastern Washington and northern Idaho. Most of the region will see decreasing showers during the evening, but moisture looks to wrap around the low and produce showers in northwest Montana through the night. Weak high pressure is expected for the rest of Thursday, bringing warmer temperatures and drier conditions. As the region remains under the influence of a trough of low pressure, showers will linger over northwest Montana through roughly 02/1200Z. Drier and warmer conditions are expected for Thursday across the region.
Otherwise, region remains under the transition zone between the upper ridge to the northwest and the upper low to the northeast. Seeing evidence of a meso-scale mid-level trough/circulation over the forecast area in the wake of the exiting outflow.
Synoptic pattern featuring the low to the northwest and high pressure over the southern Plains allows moisture to move northward from the Mexican Plateau to the San Juan and Sawatch mountains along the Continental Divide on Thursday.
This leads me to think the QPF signal is likely overdone quite a bit, so I've kept PoPs on the lower side for now. Broad ridging aloft will continue to bring hot and dry weather. This deck would potentially be IFR or MVFR, but the overall moisture profile looks to be more favorable near the sfc, so decided to go with the lower IFR cigs.
149 PM EDT Wed Jul 1 2020 Low Pressure over New England will move offshore tonight. Meanwhile, high pressure over the Plains will also shift east and move over the Midwest. As high pressure edges into the region through the weekend, warm and muggy conditions will continue with temperatures near or just above normal.
Otherwise, mid to upper level high pressure will hold strong over the Great Lakes through Thursday.
With instability at a relative minimum due to cooler morning temperatures and ample mid/high-level clouds, storms have remained relatively weak as they approach the state line.
By tomorrow, the eastern Sierra, northeast CA, and western NV region will be under a dry, southwest flow aloft with a trough axis to the west and a ridge axis to the east. According to the latest ensemble model guidance, this stagnant weather pattern looks to be the result of a Four Corners high interacting with consistent areas of low pressure moving through the Pacific Northwest region.
There is an elongated area of vorticity stretching from eastern IA into far eastern MO associated with an old upper low and an embedded MCV. Upper heights build a bit on Thursday as the ridge tries to become a little more formidable, however the aforementioned vorticity axis remains pretty much in place across eastern MO into west central IL in some fashion or another.
An low-mid level east-west ridge axis is located across the southern Florida Peninsula and the Keys.
241 PM EDT Wed Jul 1 2020 While a deep trough axis over the NE remains, high pressure is in control of our area, leading to westerly flow at the surface. Portions of the Nature Coast have seen the highest moisture content, and subsequently the greatest storm coverage. While our flow should not change, environmental conditions are becoming supportive of an area of low pressure developing to our north. Taking a look at the GFS solution, which develops the low farther to the south, one would expect a very wet weekend for much of the peninsula. However, the ECMWF solution develops the low further to the north and east, reducing the rainfall amounts by quite a bit. With an area of high pressure in control, westerly flow remains for the next several days at least.
Hot and humid weather will prevail, with highs reaching the lower 90s for the holiday weekend. The extensive cloud cover continues to hammer the temperature projections over the southwest CWA, currently only in the lower 70s near Jacksonville, though Springfield has recovered to near 80. No real change in the in the long range pattern, with sprawling upper level ridging over the central U. Highs in the lower 90s expected each day, with lows near 70.
212 PM CDT Wed Jul 1 2020 Dryline is positioned over the central Permian Basin down to the Lower Trans Pecos with moist SW flow aloft on the base of the broad trough over the western US. This is the last day of the current pattern as we begin to shift into a prototypical July setup as ridging returns back over the SW US and we begin to see a decreasing threat of convection for most of the region. Today is the best chance of precip the next several days for the Lower Trans Pecos and the eastern half of the Permian Basin. Given the steep lapse rates present over the low to mid levels, coupled with the energy present from afternoon heating, a marginal severe risk will encompass the farthest eastern edges of the forecast area.
255 PM EDT Wed Jul 1 2020 Generally uneventful weather will continue through the rest of the week as high pressure remains across the region.
344 PM CDT Wed Jul 1 2020 Upper low centered over southern Alberta continues to dominate our pattern in the Northern Plains. The upper ridge remains in place and will continue a pattern of warmer temperatures across the region. Southerly winds 7-12kt should become lighter this evening by sunset eventually increasing once again from the southeast mid to late Thursday morning 12-14kt as low pressure builds back into ND.
An upper level ridge then dominates our area, raising temperatures and bringing us dry weather for Thursday and Thursday night.
1155 AM CDT Wed Jul 1 2020 Overnight convection initiated along a surface cold front oriented north to south stretched through eastern Dakotas into Nebraska. There is some question about forcing as the previously mentioned surface front nearly halts its progression further eastward due to the upper level blocking pattern. With the region under a mid to upper level ridge, afternoon temperatures will climb into the upper 80s. This daytime heating will play a great roll with destabilizing the lower atmosphere to break the cap. An amplified upper level ridge will remain in place across the forecast area, further amplifying as we approach the weekend.
This lower-moisture profile (with PWATs about 75% of seasonal norms) will provide an increasingly dry and warm pattern as we progress through the latter part of the workweek into the upcoming weekend. Will see a nudging/expansion of the midlevel ridge centered from the south-central plains through upper Midwest a bit further east into the Ohio Valley beginning on Thursday. These warmer temperatures aloft, combined with the drier column, will allow for dry conditions on Thursday as temps again top out a degree or two either side of the 90-degree mark.
Storm development has been mainly focused on an area in the central Midlands near a surface boundary where instability remains the highest, around 2000 J/kg MLCAPE. Upper trough axis will continue pushing eastward off the coast on Thursday with an upper ridge over the center of the CONUS.
356 PM EDT Wed Jul 1 2020 The area will remain under the influence of high pressure through the end of the week. A fairly dry low level atmosphere and high pressure remaining in the region will allow for mostly clear conditions tonight and temperatures will radiate down into the 60s. Thursday appears to be a rinse and repeat of today with northeast flow over the region on the southeast side of high pressure. With low levels both warming and drying, expecting less cloud cover on Thursday and temperatures should exceed today's highs into the lower 90s for some areas. With warmer highs on Thursday, overnight lows will respond a couple degrees warmer on Thursday night in the mid to upper 60s.
Above average temperatures will be a mainstay across south central Texas through the period with influence from mid-level sub-tropical ridging overhead and warm 850 mb temperature anomalies across the region. On another note, the high minimum temperatures could be set for the date, if the current morning lows continue to hold. The ridging pattern aloft will help to generally suppress the rain chances due to subsidence.
The front will settle well to our south by morning, and ridging at all level over the Great Lakes and upper Midwest will dominate our weather on Thursday and Thursday night. Our air mass aloft will be much drier than in recent days, with the drier air moving in on northern flow between and East Coast trough and aforementioned ridge. The trough will weaken and slowly move east on Thursday and Thursday night. The period will begin with increasing 500mb heights as ridging pushes east.
Another hot day is in store for Thursday with the upper level ridge in place overhead. Temperatures will once again reach into the low to mid 90s, with heat indices in the 95 to 106 range.
603 PM EDT Wed Jul 1 2020 The area will remain under the influence of high pressure through the end of the week. Took a look at this afternoon's dewpoints and adjusted a few locations a little cooler. A fairly dry low level atmosphere and high pressure remaining in the region will allow for mostly clear conditions tonight and temperatures will radiate down into the 60s. Thursday appears to be a rinse and repeat of today with northeast flow over the region on the southeast side of high pressure. With low levels both warming and drying, expecting less cloud cover on Thursday and temperatures should exceed today's highs into the lower 90s for some areas. With warmer highs on Thursday, overnight lows will respond a couple degrees warmer on Thursday night in the mid to upper 60s.
958 PM CDT Wed Jul 1 2020 Another quiet evening is underway as temperatures have fallen some 10 degrees or so off the earlier afternoon highs, now ranging from the lower to mid 80s areawide. Otherwise, still don't expect much in the way of convection as the upper level high pressure ridge will continue to be the dominant weather feature.
Stratus was present through the lower Eel River Valley and up the coast past Trinidad and up toward Klamath this morning, but eroded and cleared quickly with a rather weak inversion and a fairly thin cloud layer. Aside from the sun, north winds are making their presence known once again, particularly along the coast and near- coastal ridges. Stratus may just be limited to the lower Eel River Delta up to perhaps Eureka late tonight and Thursday morning. Interior highs will top out around 90 degrees in the warmer spots, with onshore breezes keeping coastal areas generally in the 60s. Guidance shows the trough currently over the Western U. This will result in afternoon highs across the interior being a few degrees cooler and the marine layer deepening the latter part of the work week.
938 PM EDT Wed Jul 1 2020 The area will remain under the influence of high pressure through the end of the week. A fairly dry low level atmosphere and high pressure remaining in the region will allow for mostly clear conditions tonight and temperatures will radiate down into the 60s. Thursday appears to be a rinse and repeat of today with northeast flow over the region on the southeast side of high pressure. With low levels both warming and drying, expecting less cloud cover on Thursday and temperatures should exceed today's highs into the lower 90s for some areas. With warmer highs on Thursday, overnight lows will respond a couple degrees warmer on Thursday night in the mid to upper 60s.
Light winds that will be variable at times will continue into the weekend, as high pressure lingers over Lake Michigan. Waves will remain on the low end through this period. High pressure will keep it dry across southern Wisconsin. Otherwise, mid to upper level high pressure will hold strong over the Great Lakes through Thursday.
Enough moisture and instability exist to generate an isolated shower over the higher terrain of Baker County Oregon and Adams and Valley Counties in Idaho.
High pressure will keep it dry across southern Wisconsin. Otherwise, mid to upper level high pressure will hold strong over the Great Lakes through Thursday.
Gentle to moderate breezes from the west tonight will back from the southwest late tonight and Thursday as a trough along the east coast of the U.
Fortunately, high pressure under an upper level ridge and a weak cap will keep any shower chances out of the forecast today, with fair weather cumulus fading after sundown.
This leads me to think the QPF signal is likely overdone quite a bit, so I've kept PoPs on the lower side for now. Broad ridging aloft will continue to bring hot and dry weather.
1015 PM EDT Wed Jul 1 2020 Generally uneventful weather will continue through the rest of the week as high pressure remains across the region.
/issued 212 PM CDT Wed Jul 1 2020/ Dryline is positioned over the central Permian Basin down to the Lower Trans Pecos with moist SW flow aloft on the base of the broad trough over the western US. This is the last day of the current pattern as we begin to shift into a prototypical July setup as ridging returns back over the SW US and we begin to see a decreasing threat of convection for most of the region. Today is the best chance of precip the next several days for the Lower Trans Pecos and the eastern half of the Permian Basin. Given the steep lapse rates present over the low to mid levels, coupled with the energy present from afternoon heating, a marginal severe risk will encompass the farthest eastern edges of the forecast area.