Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1008 PM EST Mon Mar 8 2021 High pressure will hover over the Southeast through tonight, then move off the coast mid to late week. Previous Discussion: The rest of the afternoon will be quiet and sunny with light and variable winds across the area as high pressure prevails. High pressure will be centered across the region and clear skies with calm winds are expected in the overnight period. Along with freezing temps, scattered to widespread frost is likely across most of the area, with the exceptional of just along the coast.
214 AM EST Tue Mar 9 2021 Dry high pressure through the middle of the week as the warming trend continues. High pressure will continue to yield dry conditions through the majority of the short term amid warming temperatures.
105 AM EST Tue Mar 9 2021 High pressure will hover over the Southeast through tonight, then move off the coast mid to late week. Temperatures are running several degrees "warmer" than this time last night due to air mass modification and also a light south to southwest synoptic flow. Plus, it will be in a corridor of where land breeze circulations converge with the onshore circulation around high pressure centered just offshore.
1055 PM CST Mon Mar 8 2021 Southwest flow remains strong over the area today with weak upper ridging ahead of a closed low spinning off the Pacific Northwest coast. Meanwhile at the surface a strengthened pressure gradient has allowed for gusty southwesterly winds to keep warm and dry conditions with temperatures in the upper 60s to low 70s and dew points in the low 30s, combining for RH in the 20-30% range. Otherwise, conditions remain mild with morning lows in the upper 40s to near 50 and highs in the low 70s.
These well mixed conditions have also brought our afternoon temperatures into the low-mid 60s across much of the forecast area. A weak cold front attached to the parent low pressure system well to the north will slide through southeast Michigan this evening and tonight and will be pushed further along by the incoming ridge axis. Winds will decrease into this evening as slightly cooler temperatures nudge into the region behind this front tonight. Cooler airmass is short lived as warm advection kicks in with increasing south-southwest low level throughout the day Tuesday. High pressure to the east and limited moisture advection will keep conditions dry for Tuesday.
252 AM EST Tue Mar 9 2021 High pressure will remain nearly stationary off the Carolina coasts this week bringing dry weather and a steady warmup. A cold front will move south and may stall near the area this weekend, with little precipitation expected. GOES 'split water- vapor' channel shows moisture aloft streaming cross-wise to NC mountain ridges and an enhanced pool of vapor moving SE over SE NC.
A weak coastal trough along the coast of north central and northeast Florida will move inland this morning, and a light easterly flow will develop south of the ridge over the area today.
1251 AM EST Tue Mar 9 2021 High pressure will remain nearly stationary off the Carolinas coasts this week. A cold front will move south and may stall near the area this weekend, with little precipitation expected. Very dry aloft as 500 mb heights build overhead as a deep trough moves onto the west coast. An excellent radiational cooling night, calm winds, and dry air in the boundary layer and aloft will see temperatures falling to freezing to below freezing in the ordinarily cold sports.
Expect increasing clouds Tuesday night as a cold front approaches the area.
Under persistent southeast winds today with high pressure off to our east and lower pressures off to our west, most locations will see periods of partly to mostly cloudy skies with high temperatures ranging from the mid to upper 60s at the beaches to the mid to upper 70s inland. Continued onshore flow at the surface and ridging aloft through the remainder of the work week will bring SE TX its first stretch of high temperatures in the 80s for 2021. With GFS/NAM forecast soundings showing a moistening trend in the lower levels through the middle of the week, cloud cover will be on the rise.
The benefit to our region is a return of onshore flow, with warmer temperatures. By the weekend, a cold front to our north starts to influence our weather, and we do expect showers and thunderstorms to increase in coverage, especially late in the weekend.
With high pressure anchored along the Atlantic Coast and low pressure developing over the Plains, the tightening pressure gradient in between the pressure centers will result in an increase in winds today and especially on Wednesday. Temperatures may end up being a few degrees cooler on Wednesday with a continued lowering and thickening of sky cover.
Thereafter, a strong cold front moves through the region Wednesday night with much cooler conditions behind the front.
246 AM MST Tue Mar 9 2021 Current surface map places low over southwest North Dakota, with trailing cold front into central Wyoming. with cold front moving through the much of the forecast this morning. Impulse zips out western CONUS trof tonight.
A little warmer today with highs mainly in the low to mid 70s.
Highs on Wednesday will be a bit lower, in the mid to upper 60s due to increasing clouds ahead of main cold front. Byrd Pattern change is still in store for the region as deepening upper level trough comes onshore over the southwestern U.
Satellite imagery says it all this morning, with well-defined, spinning low pressure over the offshore waters. The lightning/thunderstorm chances continue today and expand to include areas further inland as another round of energy ejects inland from the low pressure offshore. Tonight, low pressure offshore will push south of the CA/OR border over the coastal waters, and some precipitation (mostly snow because snow levels down to 2000 feet and lower) will continue but to a lesser extent, and snow will be focused over generally Siskiyou County and somewhat from the Cascades eastward. On Wednesday afternoon the low will be over Northern California, and this can be a favorable location for enough stretching in the atmosphere north of the low to generate significant precipitation.
Upper flow over the region will continue to transition to southwest as upper level troughing starts to get established off the west coast. This upper trough will be located over the northwest quadrant of the nation by the end of the period. Meanwhile, upper level high pressure will be located over the western gulf and strengthening the southwest flow over the region.
Upper air analysis last evening showed a ridge over Texas with the flow from the west to northwest. At the surface, high pressure was centered to the northeast of our CWA. The upper ridge will move to the east of Texas today and the flow will become southwesterly. Despite the cloudiness, warm advection will lead to higher temperatures this today with highs around five degrees warmer than yesterday. Both low and high temperatures Wednesday will be around five degrees warmer than the previous period.
Return moisture off the Gulf looks to take awhile so mainly just high level clouds with scattered lower clouds in the lower layers with VFR conditions expected into the evening hours. The benefit to our region is a return of onshore flow, with warmer temperatures. By the weekend, a cold front to our north starts to influence our weather, and we do expect showers and thunderstorms to increase in coverage, especially late in the weekend.
950 AM EST Tue Mar 9 2021 High pressure will allow mild and dry weather to persist today through Wednesday.
Left in mention of freezing rain with marginal temperatures across the north for a few hours this morning.
634 AM EST Tue Mar 9 2021 High pressure will allow mild and dry weather to persist today through Wednesday.
Pattern remains largely unchanged with upper ridging, and a SW sfc gradient in between strong high pressure over the SE CONUS and deepening low pressure over the Dakotas.
This will set the stage for a warm day ahead of an approaching cold frontal boundary which will edge into the Ord/Gothenburg areas toward evening. Based on the position of the cold front and orientation of the jet, the better chances for convection are expected to focus mainly north of Interstate 80 initially, then shift east of Hwy 281 overnight. The cold front will continue to advance southeast during the day Wednesday. with noticeably cooler (but seasonal) temps in the upper 40s north of the boundary in the Ord area, to still warm readings near or in the 70s south of the front in north central KS. An upper trough lifting across Neb into SD may generate light precip during the day north of I80.
An expansive area of high pressure will remain centered to the northeast of the region, resulting in a persistently tight pressure gradient and breezy ENE surface flow across South Florida through the short term period.
924 AM EST Tue Mar 9 2021 High pressure will remain nearly stationary off the Carolina coast this week bringing dry weather and a steady warmup. A cold front will move south and may stall near the area this weekend, with little precipitation expected. GOES 'split water- vapor' channel shows moisture aloft streaming cross-wise to NC mountain ridges and an enhanced pool of vapor moving SE over SE NC. This will keep the areas near the coast, in similar max-T as today, but farther inland, several degrees warmer than today.
Forecast model soundings indicate Saturation through the DGZ, strong lift at times, and temperatures that remain mostly below freezing. Forecast builder did produce a few isolated locations of freezing rain, however removed those presently for two reasons. The main exception is the far northwestern forecast area where a dry cold frontal passage will limit highs today. A fairly steep cut-off between warmer highs and lower highs can be expected.
On Wednesday, an approaching low will bring increasing chances for light rain and snow, along with noticeably cooler temperatures. A large area of low pressure is moving south off the West Coast this morning. A short wave is rotating around this low and will move across northern Arizona today.
As the upper trough digs over the West coast, the corresponding ridge will build over the east. As a result, southwesterly flow aloft will increase through the period as a subtropical jet swings through the base of the upper trough towards the Plains.
Temperatures were already warming into the lower to middle 50s at many locations, several degrees warmer than forecast. High clouds will initially begin to clear the region from W-to-E later this afternoon as winds aloft veer to west-northwest in the wake of the passing trough, with clear skies expected to persist throughout the evening. However, cirrostratus should begin to return fairly quickly before sunrise, as flow aloft shifts back to the west- southwest in response to an upper low dropping southward off the coast of southern OR/northern CA.
555 AM EST Tue Mar 9 2021 High pressure will remain nearly stationary off the Carolina coasts this week bringing dry weather and a steady warmup. A cold front will move south and may stall near the area this weekend, with little precipitation expected. GOES 'split water- vapor' channel shows moisture aloft streaming cross-wise to NC mountain ridges and an enhanced pool of vapor moving SE over SE NC. This will keep the areas near the coast, in similar max-T as today, but farther inland, several degrees warmer than today.
With weak upper level ridging or zonal flow aloft, airmass remains dry though. Tonight, boundary layer winds from the south remain elevated, and despite mostly clear skies, overnight lows will be about 8-10 degrees warmer than this (Tuesday) morning. During the day on Wednesday, the upper level ridge axis crosses the area and weak moisture return begins in the low levels. An increase in cloud cover is expected along with slightly warmer temperatures.
Satellite imagery shows the deep, cold, closed low off the PacNW coast moving slowly south southeast. Current temperatures are cooler compared to 24 hours ago and range from the 20s in the mountains to the lower to mid 40s in the Central Valley. Precipitation will increase across the region today, especially by this afternoon, as the low edges closer. Showers expected to diminish from the north by Wednesday evening as the low shifts south.
Low pressure offshore will move to the northern California coast by Wednesday. The highest probability of thunderstorms will be this afternoon and evening.
424 AM EST Tue Mar 9 2021 High pressure will allow mild and dry weather to persist today through Wednesday.
The highest snowfall rates are expected Wednesday morning and could cause some travel impacts along I-25 between Wheatland and Casper, especially for the morning commute.
While a large system of low pressure spins off the coast of the Pacific Northwest, moisture continues to stream into the Northern Rockies from the southwest. As today progresses, the low pressure system off the coast of Washington moves south, bringing the moisture with it. Clearing skies will result in cooler overnight lows by Wednesday morning and a break in wet weather for Wednesday.
410 AM CST Tue Mar 9 2021 A cold front is expected to cross the state from west to east today. Water vapor imagery and derived GOES wind vectors depicted divergence aloft over northern Wyoming and central/eastern Montana early this morning, in the downstream cyclonic flow region of a broad western CONUS trough. This sets up a stark contrast in temperatures across the state where highs struggle to reach 40 in the northwest and push into the low to mid 60s in the southern James River Valley. Even with the higher end QPF (approaching 0. 25") low snow liquid ratios and warm surface temperatures should keep any snowfall accumulation to a few tenths at the higher end. Following this system Wednesday, the forecast remains mostly dry through the weekend as flow aloft transitions from northwesterly to ridging.
Meanwhile, an extensive, east-west oriented ridge axis extending across the Gulf coast region will slowly slip eastward over the next several days. A deep layered anticyclone will expand eastward over the Sunshine State and the adjacent Atlantic and Gulf waters through the forecast period. A strong high pressure to the north of the Florida Keys will keep northeast winds near 15 knots with gusts to 25 knots.
431 AM MST Tue Mar 9 2021 Current surface map places low over southwest North Dakota, with trailing cold front into central Wyoming. with cold front moving through the much of the forecast this morning. Impulse zips out western CONUS trof tonight.
Sharp though small amplitude upper trough was into eastern Kansas at 08Z with clearing skies behind. The low-level jet redevelops tonight and could seem speeds linger near similar levels for much of the night under deeper cloud. Some signal for elevated precip remains mainly near the terminus of the low-level jet in northeastern areas with some modest instability as a mid- level jet streak passes. Guidance is more progressive with the Pacific airmass pushing east across the state during the day with very dry air mixing down behind it with the cold front lagging.
Latest 08z surface analysis shows ridge over southern Michigan and latest metars show winds becoming southerly. Southerly winds aloft will allow warmer air to filter into the region and high temperatures are expected to rise into the middle 50s to middle 60s. Temperatures will be well above freezing.
Strong high pressure along the southeast U. Temperatures will continue to moderate under the easterly wind flow with highs climbing into the lower to mid 70s during the afternoon. High pressure along the southeast U.
1105 AM MST Tue Mar 9 2021 Allowed the High Wind Warning for the Arlington area to expire on time. Went ahead and extended the High Wind Warning to 18Z this morning. The highest snowfall rates are expected Wednesday morning and could cause some travel impacts along I-25 between Wheatland and Casper, especially for the morning commute.
Will still be breezy and mild ahead of the main low and trailing cold front. The cold front will advance through southern WI. We should see some shra/tsra with this cold front.
Daytime high temperatures are forecast to peak into the lower to mid 70s, with overnight lows falling into the lower 50s to upper 60s.
Upper level low off the coast will move slowly south today before ending up in Northern California Wednesday. Weak systems spinning out of the low will keep a chance of showers in the area today. Weak upper level trough dropping down from the north Wednesday.
1254 PM EST Tue Mar 9 2021 High pressure will allow mild and dry weather to persist today through Wednesday.
Even with clouds moving in this morning, we should see temperatures continue to rise through the 60s and into the low 70s in several places by this afternoon. Our overnight lows tonight should be noticeably warmer thanks to continuing southerly winds.
Wednesday evening, the slow-moving cold front will sag close enough to northwestern parts of the area to lead to some potential for thunderstorm development, mainly northwest of I-44.
Still the potential to see gusts around 40 mph in the advisory area, especially north of the lower cloud deck.
344 PM EST Tue Mar 9 2021 A very weak but dry cold front will drift just south of the Pennsylvania, Maryland border this evening, then return north across the state as a warm front on Wednesday.
Nonetheless, the nearby high pressure will continue to slowly drift eastward.
This afternoon relative humidity values have once again fallen to between 15-25 percent across the area as the ridge continues to build in strength and afternoon temperatures rise about 10 degrees above normal. Once again went a couple of degrees above guidance as most of the guidance isn't picking up on the lower dew point/RH values and it seems to be a bit easier to warm up in the afternoon in response to this.
Vertz The cold front is moving through southeastern Montana, bringing with it a few inches of snow to the mountains and a dusting to lower elevations. The lower elevations could see a dusting of snow overnight but nothing significant. The lower elevations will dry out during the afternoon today. The lower elevations in Sheridan County could see 1 to 2 inches of snow with the Big Horns seeing 3 to 6 inches but trends have slowly been shifting this system south which could continue.
1218 PM EST Tue Mar 9 2021 High pressure will remain nearly stationary off the Carolina coast this week bringing dry weather and a steady warmup. A cold front will move south and may stall near the area this weekend, with little precipitation expected. Temperatures trending slightly warmer than originally forecast, mainly along the coast, due in part to dry soils and a pinned sea breeze (for now). GOES 'split water- vapor' channel shows moisture aloft streaming cross-wise to NC mountain ridges and an enhanced pool of vapor moving SE over SE NC. This will keep the areas near the coast, in similar max-T as today, but farther inland, several degrees warmer than today.
On Wednesday, an approaching low will bring increasing chances for light rain and snow, along with noticeably cooler temperatures.
This high is responsible for the strong breezes that have persisted across the Florida Keys and surrounding waters today and will continue to be a thorn in our side for a while (more details below). Meanwhile, aloft there is an upper level trough that stretches southwest across the western Atlantic, across the Sunshine State, and over the Yucatan Peninsula. Upstream a staunch ridge extends poleward into the Hudson Bay region. This ridge is slowly pushing east and is ejecting the aforementioned upper level trough over us. Despite this, temperatures have warmed into the mid to upper 70s and current temperatures are about a degree or two warmer than this time yesterday.
Onshore flow will keep areas near the lake cooler.
Highs on Wednesday should reach the middle 70s for most (lower 70s atop the higher plateaus).
1156 AM EST Tue Mar 9 2021 High pressure will remain nearly stationary off the Carolina coast this week bringing dry weather and a steady warmup. A cold front will move south and may stall near the area this weekend, with little precipitation expected. GOES 'split water- vapor' channel shows moisture aloft streaming cross-wise to NC mountain ridges and an enhanced pool of vapor moving SE over SE NC. This will keep the areas near the coast, in similar max-T as today, but farther inland, several degrees warmer than today.
818 AM MST Tue Mar 9 2021 Went ahead and extended the High Wind Warning to 18Z this morning. The highest snowfall rates are expected Wednesday morning and could cause some travel impacts along I-25 between Wheatland and Casper, especially for the morning commute.
1013 AM MST Tue Mar 9 2021 Current surface map places low over southwest North Dakota, with trailing cold front into central Wyoming. with cold front moving through the much of the forecast this morning. Impulse zips out western CONUS trof tonight.
152 PM MST Tue Mar 9 2021 Water shows large trof over the western CONUS. At the surface, cold front has swept through our entire CWFA with gusty northwest winds. Another band of heavy snow now looks more likely from the NEB panhandle northeast through southwest SD, especially from around Pine Ridge northeastward to south of Philip.
948 AM MST Tue Mar 9 2021 Went ahead and extended the High Wind Warning to 18Z this morning. The highest snowfall rates are expected Wednesday morning and could cause some travel impacts along I-25 between Wheatland and Casper, especially for the morning commute.
Strong high pressure along the southeast U. During the remainder of the forecast period strong upper level ridging (590DM) will build in over the Gulf and Florida in response to an upper level trough/closed low initially over the Southwestern U. A dry subsident airmass under the building ridge will support dry weather through the period with a slow increase in moisture (dew points climbing into the lower 60s) along with moderating temperatures. The high will continue to support a moderate east-northeast wind flow over the Gulf waters through the period with nocturnal surges in the Cautionary range (15 to 20 knots) likely each night.
A long wave trough containing a closed low is currently lurking offshore with a ridge to the east. Short waves rotating around the low are moving through the area, creating an unstable showery regime. The highest impacts are in the Mount Shasta area.
Upper low off California is still moving slowly south. The low will eject one more short wave trough inland across Oregon Wednesday, with a chance of rain and snow showers across southern Harney and Malheur Counties and also along the ID/NV border.
An upper level ridge over the southeast will move to the east coast through Wednesday as an upper trough digs across the western states. The lack of deep layer moisture and strong subsidence from the ridge aloft will maintain dry conditions with mostly clear skies. Temperatures will continue to modify with highs mostly in the mid 70s away from the coast on Wednesday with upper 60s near the coast due to the flow off the cooler water.
355 PM EST Tue Mar 9 2021 A strong ridge of high pressure across the Middle Atlantic this evening will move offshore tonight and into Wednesday. This high will remain in place through late-week.
1044 AM EST Tue Mar 9 2021 A strong continental high pressure resides along the Eastern Seaboard near the GA/SC region. This high is dominating our region with strong northeast to east breezes. North of the island chain, where we have relatively cooler waters, clouds quickly dissipate once they move across the island chain and over these waters. High pressure over GA/SC will be slow to trek eastward. Meanwhile, a weak upper level trough over the region currently, will be replaced with deep layer ridging.