Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
CLOUD COVER SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM SOUTH FLORIDA ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE PENINSULA BEGINS TO WRAP UP AS AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. NNE WINDS HAVE INCREASED THIS MORNING AS GRADIENT TIGHTENS DUE TO AN INVERTED TROUGH FORMING OFF THE COAST.
510 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016 FOR 12Z TAFS /ISSUED 140 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016/ WATER VAPOR AND IR IMAGERY DEPICTED A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVE TROFS DIGGING INTO OK/TX. A WEAKER WAVE AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WERE PUSHING THRU THE TN VALLEY IN ADVANCE OF THE TROF EARLY THIS MORNING.
The area of low pressure that drifted southeast through Northern Texas overnight was positioned over far Eastern Texas per latest water vapor imagery this morning. With the movement of this low. winds are expected to shift out of the west northwest at around 5 to 10 mph with afternoon temperatures a few degrees cooler compared to yesterday.
547 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016 AT H5 CLOSED LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY WITH TROUGH INTO EAST TEXAS. RIDGE BUILDING FROM DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO NORTHERN PLAINS AHEAD OF A TROUGH MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT IN NEAR TERM WITH RIDGE BUILDING INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA FROM THE WEST. DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL HELP TO MIX WARMER PACIFIC AIR ALOFT. WARMER TEMPERATURES BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES TODAY THAN YESTERDAY. PARTLY CLOUDY THIS EVENING WITH MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
243 AM PST SAT FEB 6 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL WILL BUILD OVER THE GREAT BASIN, KEEPING DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND VALLEY INVERSIONS. BY THIS AFTERNOON, CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS NEAR THE CA COAST.
/ISSUED 351 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016/ THE STORM SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT THE COLD FRONT AND GUSTY WINDS YESTERDAY. AMPLIFIED RIDGE IS ON SCHEDULE TO BUILD ACROSS THE WEST WITH A DEEPENING TROUGH ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH THAT WILL PUSH A PACIFIC FRONT SOUTHWARD ACROSS WEST TEXAS SUNDAY MORNING EXITING OUR AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON. ECMWF CONTINUES TO PROG WINDS A LITTLE LOWER THAN NAM/GFS AND IS SLOWER FILTERING IN COOLER AIR.
/issued 322 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016/ This morning W TX/SE NM is on backside of upper trough and east side of upper ridge centered off the CA coast. Another trough moves down across the Central Plains Sunday and keeps the ridge from building in for a few days.
1043 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP FAIR AND RELATIVELY MILD CONDITIONS IN PLACE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. THE EXTENDED PART OF THE FORECAST WILL FEATURE A COOL DOWN AS AN ANOMALOUS UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN US.
ALONG WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES. A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION RESULTING IN MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CONTINUED TO BUILD ALONG THE WEST COAST. MOSTLY RANGING FROM LOW TEENS TO LOW 20S OVER THE LOWER DESERTS. AS THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD TO OUR WEST THIS WEEKEND WE WILL SEE THE WARM AIR ALOFT STEADILY MIX TOWARDS THE SURFACE AND HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS UNDER SUNNY SKIES. REACHING THE UPPER 70S OVER THE WARMER LOWER DESERTS BY SUNDAY.
924 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016 AN IMPRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO ROLL EASTWARD ACROSS THE TEXARKANA REGION THIS MORNING. WHILE ABUNDANT DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL PREVENT MUCH OF THIS FROM REACHING THE GROUND OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
SYSTEM CLEARLY VISIBLE ON MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY AT THIS TIME WITH ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING NORTHEAST TO THE GREAT LAKES STATES. UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL CLEAR THE AREA TONIGHT WITH WEAK UPPER RIDGE BUILDING IN. AFTER A SLIGHTLY WARMER DAY AND BREEZIER DAY SUNDAY.
AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE MID MS VALLEY. THIS COLD FRONT WILL WORK ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NT. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL DEEPEN CONSIDERABLY WITH NUMEROUS IMPULSES UPSTREAM.
1037 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016 CURRENTLY - AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS LINGERING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN AND MID ATLANTIC REGION OF THE UNITED STATES. SOME SUNSHINE THIS MORNING ALONG WITH THE WARMER FLOW HAS BROUGHT TEMPERATURES UP TO NEAR 70 DEGREES. SHORT TERM UPDATE - THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL SWING EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO TODAY. THIS TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN LOW LEVEL LIFT ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE KEYS. WINDS WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY VERY LATE IN THE DAY AND THIS EVENING AND TURN NORTHWEST TO NORTH AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE FLORIDA KEYS. WINDS ARE STILL ON TRACK TO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE FLORIDA KEYS.
625 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016 DRY CONDITIONS AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST TODAY INTO SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES SLOWLY OFF TO THE EAST. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS FOR THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELDS WILL GRADUALLY MODIFY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON SO EXPECT HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID 40S TODAY. SOME SHORT WAVE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BRIEFLY BUILD INTO THE AREA TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AHEAD OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY DROPPING DOWN ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS ENERGY WILL HELP CARVE OUT A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
COOLER WEATHER WILL BE SEEN TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH THESE AREAS COULD EASILY FALL INTO THE MID 30S OR COOLER IF A LIGHT WEST WIND ENSUES. GOING A BIT ON THE COOLER SIDE TONIGHT (EXCEPT NEAR THE COAST DUE TO AFOREMENTIONED WEAK NE FLOW).
/ISSUED 325 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016/ SMALL CLOSED LOW SEEN IN THE ANALYSIS THIS MORNING MOVING THROUGH NORTHEAST TEXAS WITH A LINE OF SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT.
By afternoon the trough axis should be east of IL causing subsidence to help this cloud cover erode somewhat. High temperatures will be up to the low and mid 40s north of I-72, and mid to upper 40s to the south as the SW winds advect milder air of Pacific origin into the area. Weak high pressure at the surface and generally southwesterly winds will both play a role in keeping the temperatures and weather rather mild across the Midwest for the remainder of the weekend. A little bit of a gap in btwn systems will result in a very weak sfc trof passing through at that time, and although there will be little in the way of surface convergence. If the trend in the NAM/ECMWF continues, potentially pull the low pop entirely in the next run or so.
605 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP FAIR CONDITIONS IN PLACE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. THE EXTENDED PART OF THE FORECAST WILL FEATURE A COOL DOWN AS AN ANOMALOUS UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN US.
243 AM PST SAT FEB 6 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE GREAT BASIN, KEEPING DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND VALLEY INVERSIONS. BY THIS AFTERNOON, CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS NEAR THE CA COAST.
A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR. WITH STRONGEST WINDS HUGGING CLOSER TO A DEPARTING UPPER LOW. AND THE ACCOMPANYING DRY AIR SHOULD LEAD TO EFFICIENT COOLING TO WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF THE FREEZING MARK OVER MOST OF THE AREA.
WINDS WILL THEN VEER AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT TONIGHT BEHIND A COLD FRONT.
635 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP FAIR CONDITIONS IN PLACE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. THE EXTENDED PART OF THE FORECAST WILL FEATURE A COOL DOWN AS AN ANOMALOUS UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN US.
930 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016 HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE SOUTH TODAY AND TONIGHT.
405 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016 A SHORT WAVE TROF CURRENTLY OVER EAST TEXAS WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST TODAY AND PRODUCE SOME MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS ALABAMA. SLIGHTLY WARMER ON SUNDAY DUE TO WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT.
Seasonably mild temps will continue today and tomorrow ahead of a cold front which will push through the area during the day on Sunday.
616 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016 WARMER-THAN-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
Upper level ridging with strong subsidence and warming is the main story for the short term forecast, with dry weather and very mild temperatures for this time of year.
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST IS EXPECTED TO MIGRATE OFF THE MID- ATLANTIC COAST WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS AND TEMPS UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 ON FRIDAY.
BUT WE EXPECT AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVERNIGHT AS ADDITIONAL WEAK IMPULSES MOVE THROUGH THE APPROACHING TROUGH AND ACROSS THE AREA. THE LARGE UPPER LOW WILL WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES TOMORROW. SENDING A SPLITTING TROUGH THROUGH THE AREA WITH THE AXIS PASSING THROUGH LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
IN ADDITION WITH WARMER GROUND TEMPERATURES AND A GENERALLY WARMER TEMPERATURE PROFILE.
This will support a lee side trough and eventually a front to approach from the northwest. This will allow the low level moisture to increase in the form of stratus mainly over eastern KS. This could complicate the high temperatures for locations remaining under cloud cover for a majority of the day. As of now the forecast highs will be in the low to mid 60s. By late tomorrow afternoon the cold front will reach north central KS. Surface frontogenesis begins over the area Friday night as upper trough moves into the Four Corners area.
HIGHS FRIDAY TO ONLY BE IN THE LOW 30S NORTH TO UPPER 30S NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.
951 PM EST THU DEC 10 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES TO CENTRAL ONTARIO CANADA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA OVERNIGHT. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.
1037 PM EST THU DEC 10 2015 A WEAKENING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIDE NORTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY. MILDER AIR IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN FOR THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.
1036 PM EST THU DEC 10 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL INTO THE WEEKEND.
CLOUDS HAVE REMAINED ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES WHICH HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES A BIT COOLER IN THE MID 60S.
LOWERED MIN TEMPS IN THE NISH VALLEY SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW GUIDANCE WITH THE RIDGE AXIS AND DRY AIR IN PLACE.
CHANCES FOR RAIN AND HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND FRIDAY WHILE MUCH COOLER AIR ARRIVES BY FRIDAY.
740 PM EST THU DEC 10 2015 00Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS DEEP LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WHILE HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS ON OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THEY VARY FROM THE UPPER 40S IN THE DEEPER VALLEYS TO THE MID 50S ON THE RIDGES. HIGH PRESSURE SITTING TO OUR EAST. AND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO OUR NORTHWEST HAS CREATED A GOOD FLOW OF SOUTH/SW WARM MOIST AIR INTO THE REGION. WITH HIGH PRESSURE STILL IN PLACE. WPC IS NOW PEGGING PRECIP ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF OUR CWA STARTING OVERNIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO A GOOD PORTION OF THE DAY TOMORROW AS A COLD FRONT TO OUR NORTH SAGS SOUTH TOWARDS THE OHIO RIVER.
703 PM EST THU DEC 10 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL INTO THE WEEKEND.
/ISSUED 352 PM EST THU DEC 10 2015/ HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND WILL DOMINATE THIS WEEKEND. SHRTWV TROF IN ASSOCIATION WITH SUBTROPICAL JET WILL CROSS REGION OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVERHEAD WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS.
819 PM EST THU DEC 10 2015 A WEAKENING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIDE NORTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY. MILDER AIR IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN FOR THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.
AND WITH SHRTWV TROF/VORT MAX CROSSING OVERNIGHT. /ISSUED 352 PM EST THU DEC 10 2015/ HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND WILL DOMINATE THIS WEEKEND. SHRTWV TROF IN ASSOCIATION WITH SUBTROPICAL JET WILL CROSS REGION OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVERHEAD WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS.
THE LOW CEILINGS AND FOG DISSIPATE BY MID MORNING ON FRIDAY LEAVING VFR CONDITIONS WITH SOUTH WINDS INCREASING TO NEAR 8 KNOTS. THIS RIDGE WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST WITH TIME ALLOWING MOISTURE LEVELS TO INCREASE WITH CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW.
1003 PM EST THU DEC 10 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY WITH ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVER THE ADIRONDACKS. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND. WEAK RIDGING ALOFT BUILDING OVER THE REGION WILL PROVIDE A GENERALLY QUIET AND MILD NIGHT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY SHIFTS NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER BY THE AFTERNOON WITH MAYBE A FEW LAKE ENHANCED SHOWERS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS, BUT DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL SOUTHWARD. BEHIND THAT, BUILDING HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST IN RESPONSE TO A STRENGTHENING SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
403 PM MST THU DEC 10 2015 THE NOSE OF A 110-140KT PACIFIC JET IS PROGGED TO PASS OVER NORTHERN COLORADO THIS EVENING AHEAD OF A LONG WAVE TROUGH CARVING OUT OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. AS THE TROUGH DEEPENS. THEN A SHIFT TO WEAK COLD ADVECTION AS HEIGHTS WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH. MODELS SHOW HIGH COUNTRY PRECIPITATION DROPPING OFF DURING THE DAY WITH THE JET CORE DYNAMICS TEMPORARILY RETREATING WESTWARD AS THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE SOUTHERLY WITH THE DIGGING UPPER TROUGH OUT WEST. THEN A COLD FRONT MOVING DOWN FROM WYOMING MID TO LATE MORNING WILL CAP OFF RISING TEMPERATURES AROUND MIDDAY WITH GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS CAUSING BOUNDARY LAYER HUMIDITIES TO RISE. HIGHS ON THE PLAINS FRIDAY EXPECTED TO BE 10-15 DEG F COOLER THAN TODAY. AND HIGH COUNTRY HIGHS SOME 125-20 DEGS COOLER WITH THE PRECIPITATION AND BROKEN TO OVERCAST SKIES.
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 52 69 55 72 / 10 20 10 10 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 50 69 54 71 / 10 10 10 10 OAK RIDGE, TN 51 67 53 70 / 10 10 10 10 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 41 67 45 69 / 10 10 10 10.
THIS IS THE TYPE OF ENVIRONMENT THAT WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE GREAT VALLEY TONIGHT INTO THE MORNING HOURS FRIDAY AS THE WARM AND MOIST AIR STREAMS ACROSS THE RELATIVELY COOLER GROUND ON SOUTHERLY FLOW. WENT WITH A DETERIORATING FORECAST AS MVFR CEILINGS DEVELOP AND VISIBILITY COULD DESCEND FROM THE HIGHER MVFR CATEGORY TO IFR AND POSSIBLY LIFR CATEGORY AROUND 09-13Z. THE WEAK LIFT DUE TO WARM AIR OVERRIDING COOLER SURFACE AIR AND A WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT MAY LEAD TO SOME SPOTTY DRIZZLE OR A SPRINKLE OF RAIN AS WELL FROM AROUND 09-18Z BUT THE PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION OCCURRING AT ANY TERMINAL IS SO LOW IT WAS LEFT OUT OF THE FORECAST.
Gusty winds associated with the tighter gradient this afternoon will continue some into the early evening hours after the trough passage. Once the ridge passes tomorrow night, southerly winds will return and bring in much warmer temps for the weekend.
1030 PM EST THU DEC 10 2015 A WEAKENING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIDE NORTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY. MILDER AIR IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN FOR THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.
An upper level trough will continue its progression east through the western US bringing strong southwesterly flow over the region.
940 PM CST THU DEC 10 2015 WAA LIFT IN ADVANCE OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH COMING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT IS EXPECTED TO BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES TO THE WESTERN CWA. WINDS HAVE WEAKENED SLIGHTLY IN THE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS MEANS TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT ARE ACTUALLY WARMER THAN AHEAD OF IT BECAUSE THE SKIES HAVE OPENED UP AND THIS SYSTEM LACKED A COLD CORE TO PULL FROM ON THE NORTHWEST FLANK. LOW LEVEL DRY AIR ADVECTING NORTH WILL BREAK UP THE LOW CLOUDS.
713 PM EST THU DEC 10 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED JUST OFFSHORE FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
WILL NEED TO WATCH THE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHEAST ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE TONIGHT AS THE LOW CLOUDS, FOG, AND DRIZZLE MAY ALLOW FOR VISIBILITIES TO LOWER ENOUGH THAT A DENSE FOG ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.
809 PM EST THU DEC 10 2015 A WEAKENING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIDE NORTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY. MILDER AIR IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN FOR THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.
702 PM EST THU DEC 10 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY WITH ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVER THE ADIRONDACKS. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND. WEAK RIDGING ALOFT BUILDING OVER THE REGION WILL PROVIDE A GENERALLY QUIET AND MILD NIGHT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY SHIFTS NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER BY THE AFTERNOON WITH MAYBE A FEW LAKE ENHANCED SHOWERS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS, BUT DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL SOUTHWARD. BEHIND THAT, BUILDING HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST IN RESPONSE TO A STRENGTHENING SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS AN AMPLIFYING LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVES ASHORE THE PACIFIC COAST AND DIGS INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS DOWNSTREAM OVER THE SOUTHEAST COAST AS DIGGING LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVES ASHORE THE PACIFIC COAST LATE TONIGHT AND INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY. RIDGING AT THE SFC AND ALOFT OVER MUCH OF SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC REGIONS WILL PROVIDE FAIR WEATHER THIS WEEKEND WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS.
SOMEWHAT OF A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS THE AREA NEXT 24 HOURS AND AM HARD PRESSED TO FIND MUCH IN THE WAY OF VORTICITY. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE HELD UP IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 50S DUE TO CLOUD COVER WITH UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 IN THE UPPER CUMBERLAND.
/issued 331 PM CST THU DEC 10 2015/ (Tonight and Tomorrow) A pseudo-zonal flow aloft over the forecast area tonight will begin backing to the southwest tomorrow as an upper level trough deepens over the Desert Southwest. A forecast high of 85 degrees for San Angelo is a degree warmer than the record high of 84 degrees set back in 1929. Near record high afternoon temperatures, afternoon relative humidities in the lower 20s, and 20 foot winds of 10-15 mph, concomitant with drying vegetation, will yield elevated fire weather conditions for most of West Central Texas tomorrow.
WILL HEDGE MY BET BY MENTIONING PATCHY FOG IN THE FORECAST TONIGHT AS WELL AS WARMER OVERNIGHT LOWS.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS AN AMPLIFYING LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVES ASHORE THE PACIFIC COAST AND DIGS INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. EXTENSIVE CIRRUS SHIELD THATS ACCOMPANYING A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH HAS ADVANCED EAST INTO THE TN AND OHIO VALLEY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS DOWNSTREAM OVER THE SOUTHEAST COAST AS DIGGING LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVES ASHORE THE PACIFIC COAST LATE TONIGHT AND INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY. RIDGING AT THE SFC AND ALOFT OVER MUCH OF SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC REGIONS WILL PROVIDE FAIR WEATHER THIS WEEKEND WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS.
859 PM EST THU DEC 10 2015 A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT. THE FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY FOR THE WEEKEND. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MAKE INROADS INTO THE REGION. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S NW TO THE LOWER 50S SOUTHEAST. WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO THE LOWER 60S SOUTH.
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE HIGH PLAINS OF COLORADO TOWARD SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA ON FRIDAY WITH A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS MOST OF NEBRASKA BY FRIDAY EVENING.
SHORT TERM: (Through Late Tonight) Expect a dry and quiet night as upper trough currently passing to our north moves into the Great Lakes.
High pressure located to the east of the region will allow for gradually increasing low level moisture overnight. It should also be a bit more mild overnight than previous nights with lows generally in the low to mid 50s.
650 PM EST THU DEC 10 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES TO CENTRAL ONTARIO CANADA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA OVERNIGHT. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.
733 PM EST THU DEC 10 2015 LOW PRESSURE TRACKING TO OUR WEST WILL PULL A WARM FRONT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY. MILD WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.
WITH AN EFFECTIVE SURFACE WARM FRONT TO MEMPHIS BY 6 AM. AREAS OF FOG WILL LIKELY OCCUR AHEAD OF THE NORTHWARD MOVING WARM FRONT. CONDITIONS SHOULD CHANGE RAPIDLY THIS EVENING AS BOTH THE NAM AND GFS INDICATE A THAT A SECONDARY WARM FRONT WILL PUSH NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF COAST. HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT.
CONDITIONS SHOULD CHANGE RAPIDLY THIS EVENING AS BOTH THE NAM AND GFS INDICATE A THAT A SECONDARY WARM FRONT WILL PUSH NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF COAST. HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT.
LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS LAKE AND VOLUSIA COUNTIES TO THE LOWER TO MID 60S ALONG THE TREASURE COAST.
/ISSUED 411 PM CST THU DEC 10 2015/ THE WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY WORK ITS WAY THROUGH THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF EXTREME SE OK/SW AR THIS AFTERNOON. THE LOWEST CIGS ARE CONFINED TO AREAS NEAR/N OF THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE DRIER AIR TO THE S HAVING MIXED THE LOWER CIGS OUT. SHOULD AGAIN SEE A REPEAT IN THE LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT FRIDAY NIGHT.
SO BUMPED UP POPS FOR A FEW HOURS AS LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES TO WRAP AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW NOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES. ROADS ARE ALREADY SLICK IN THAT AREA FROM THE WET ROADS FREEZING EARLIER. COOLER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE INTO THE FA FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT INTO FRI.
Overnight lows expected to range from the upper 30s and lower 40s across the south, to the lower and middle 40s elsewhere. /issued 331 PM CST THU DEC 10 2015/ (Tonight and Tomorrow) A pseudo-zonal flow aloft over the forecast area tonight will begin backing to the southwest tomorrow as an upper level trough deepens over the Desert Southwest. A forecast high of 85 degrees for San Angelo is a degree warmer than the record high of 84 degrees set back in 1929. Near record high afternoon temperatures, afternoon relative humidities in the lower 20s, and 20 foot winds of 10-15 mph, concomitant with drying vegetation, will yield elevated fire weather conditions for most of West Central Texas tomorrow.
511 PM CST THU DEC 10 2015 SOMEWHAT COOLER BUT STILL WELL ABOVE TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASING HIGH AND SOME MIDDLE CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH WARM ADVECTION ALOFT AS AN UPPER RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP TO FREEZING OR A LITTLE COLDER LATE. FRIDAY WILL BE MARKED BY SOME COOLING FROM THE NORTH AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS LOW SHOULD PASS WEAKLY EAST BY THE END OF THE DAY AND WE SHOULD SEE THE BARE BEGINNINGS OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY START TO SET UP SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO SHOW A NORTH/SOUTH GRADIENT WITH HIGHS AROUND 40 NORTH TO THE LOWER 50S SOUTHEAST.
LOCALLY DENSE FOG POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT THROUGH EARLY MORNING ON EVENING SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE (1018 MILLIBARS) CENTERED OVER THE FLORIDA BIG BEND COAST. A VEIL OF CIRRUS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH WAS THINNING AS IT MOVES INTO OUR REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. WE BELIEVE THAT THEY MAY BE CORRECT TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEWPOINTS IN PLACE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE ON FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT NORTH OF OUR REGION AND WILL STRENGTHEN LATER THIS WEEKEND.
WITH THE SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT FALLS OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS RESULTING IN A DEEPENING UPPER TROF INTO NORTHERN BAJA INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THOUGH A COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTH INTO NORTHERN AND WESTERN KANSAS BY EVENING.
411 PM CST THU DEC 10 2015 THE WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY WORK ITS WAY THROUGH THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF EXTREME SE OK/SW AR THIS AFTERNOON. THE LOWEST CIGS ARE CONFINED TO AREAS NEAR/N OF THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE DRIER AIR TO THE S HAVING MIXED THE LOWER CIGS OUT. SHOULD AGAIN SEE A REPEAT IN THE LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT FRIDAY NIGHT.
THE MOUNTAINS COULD SEE GUSTS TO AROUND 60 MPH OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY WHILE THE LOWER ELEVATIONS NEXT TO THE MOUNTAINS COULD SEE GUSTS TO AROUND 50 MPH.
1013 PM EST THU DEC 10 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED JUST OFFSHORE FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.