Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
An upper level low pressure system now over the Arklatex region will continue to move slowly southeast today. The rain is associated with an upper level low pressure system that will track eastward from East Texas into Louisiana by late this afternoon. Although, can't rule out a shower developing at any given location at any given time this afternoon due to the proximity of the upper level low. Temperatures will be cooler today with highs remaining in the 60s due to the shower activity and cloud cover. The upper level low will begin to sink southeastward tonight and will be located across the Gulf of Mexico by Wednesday morning. Upper ridging will begin to occur on the back side of the departing upper low and surface winds will turn back around to the south.
1121 AM CST Tue Feb 21 2017 Upper level low near the Arklatex will continue to shift slowly to the southeast through the period. (ISSUED 950 AM CST Tue Feb 21 2017 ) Latest water vapor imagery showing the upper level low quite clearly over the Arklatex at this time. (ISSUED 521 AM CST Tue Feb 21 2017 ) Upper low moving to the south of the forecast area should promote MVFR ceilings through much of this period. Water vapor imagery reveals center of closed low over southeast Texas, moving eastward.
The closed low at 500 mb currently centered over Louisiana will slide southeastward overnight and is expected to be centered south of Mobile by dawn.
Quiet weather is in store through the period as an upper level ridge moves across the region on Wednesday. Went closer to the lower MAV guidance for minimum temperatures tonight with respect to radiational cooling.
107 PM EST Tue Feb 21 2017 VFR flying conditions will prevail early in the TAF period before an approaching low pressure system brings deteriorating flying conditions to all terminals by daybreak Wednesday. Dry with VFR conditions through the day, the increasing clouds with potential for SHRA developing vcnty all sites after 22/06Z as low pressure system approaches from the Gulf of Mexico. 500MB ridge over South Florida remains in control today providing another warm and dry day across the area. Weather pattern begins to change as high begins to move east Tuesday evening ahead a of a strong low pressure system reaching S FL region. Currently, low pressure over the central plains will travel east into the Mississippi river valley today and continue moving east into the northeast Gulf coast into Wednesday.
320 PM CST Tue Feb 21 2017 Dry air continues to push in from the northwest this afternoon as upper-level low pressure over eastern LA/AR gradually drifts to the southeast, leaving the majority of the CWA very quiet this afternoon. Plentiful heating but no real mixing/advection has resulted in very mild temperatures in the upper 60s to low 70s, setting a reference point for tomorrow's warmer conditions. Record-setting warmth is expected across the region tomorrow as the thermal axis translates eastward and surface convergence along and ahead of a weak cold front enhances mixing of the warming temperatures aloft.
High High pressure well to the east will continue to depart tonight ahead of an advancing trough of low pressure. This would yield highs pushing or evening hitting 70! Does look like the trough could bring some late morning and afternoon clouds in the north, which might hold back temps a tad there.
1146 AM CST Tue Feb 21 2017 High pressure is settling over the area and VFR conditions will prevail at all area airports through this period. Dry with a northwest flow today behind the departing upper level low and surface cold front this morning. Continued warm and dry tomorrow as weak southwest flow develops and a weak ridge aloft moves overhead. Highs even warmer Wednesday, with 80s for the entire CWA and pushing 90 along the Rio Grande.
1141 AM CST Tue Feb 21 2017 Main frontal boundary has been slow to make it into SE KS early this morning, with surface dewpoints in the lower 40s leading to areas of dense fog for SE KS. This will lead to slightly cooler temps for Thu for portions of Central KS, with temps south of the stalled frontal boundary remaining well above normal. The ECMWF and GFS differ on the path of this low pressure area, with both models showing the stalled frontal boundary in Central KS pushing gradually back into Neb as a warm front. ECMWF seems to be the most consistent with the lows path across srn KS, but the GFS is further north with its path across nrn KS.
1218 PM EST Tue Feb 21 2017 High pressure cresting over the area this morning will move to the east this afternoon.
109 PM EST Tue Feb 21 2017 Showers will be possible today into tonight along a weak cold front. High pressure is forecast to provide mainly dry weather on Wednesday.
Above normal temperatures will continue with lows tonight in the lower 60s. Highs on Wed will be slightly cooler than today due to clouds and precip. nearly stacked low pressure system across the extreme ern Gulf of Mexico just southwest of Tampa FL Wed evening will slowly shift east to southeast with the NAM model a bit faster. Best lift expected to stay south of the area as shown by mid to upper level Q-vector convergence field but onshore flow and vorticity lobe rotating cyclonically around the northern side of the low will force numerous showers and a few thunderstorms over the coastal land and marine zones.
Drier air moving in behind the low aloft has led to some clearing over the forecast area, although the lingering low-level moisture has led to cu formation with heating this afternoon. Another low aloft will help dig a mid/upper-level trof through the Rockies late in the week.
327 PM CST Tue Feb 21 2017 Tonight through Wednesday: Overall the upper low will gradually slide southeast into the Gulf of Mexico as we go into the evening. Expect a gradual dropoff in precipitation as the isentropic lift continues to wane as the closed low dives into the Gulf of Mexico.
1155 AM CST Tue Feb 21 2017 Light rain will continue mainly along and east of US Highway 65 this morning as an upper level low moves south of the area. Have kept some lingering showers across south central missouri into the afternoon closer to the upper low. Clouds will be slow to clear Today and temps will be warmer in western Missouri versus south central Missouri.
An upper level low moving across the deep south will spread moisture across Mid Tn today. Upper low set of move across the deep south today/tonight.
An upper level low moving across the deep south will spread moisture across Mid Tn today. Cigs and vsbys will fall to MVFR this evening as a low pressure moving across the deep south brings a swath of moisture over the area.
Temperatures tonight to fall into the low to mid 50s across the region with clouds hanging around across all areas except for possibly east Texas and Southeast Oklahoma. Not expecting much widespread clearing until Wednesday afternoon as upper-level ridge builds in the wake of the upper-low.
As we get into Wednesday, dry air moves into the region associated with weak high pressure and some sunshine is expected during the day. Clouds begin to come back in Wednesday night as a low pressure system begins its trek towards the region.
318 PM CST Tue Feb 21 2017 A slow moving upper level low pressure system over the Arklamiss this afternoon will continue to move east tonight. The upper low should drop southeast into the northeast Gulf of Mexico by Wednesday morning with upper ridging rebuilding over the Mid South through the day. This should allow temperatures to warm back into the lower to middle 70s.
Zonal flow aloft tomorrow will help weak lee troughing develop at the surface bringing winds out of the west.
Elsewhere, SCT to ocnl BKN VFR cigs can be expected as drier air filters in on the backside of an upper low over the region. Intermittent MVFR to IFR visibilities/ceilings this morning along with isolated SHRA developing with upper low over SE TX. Sharp upper trof currently advancing east across east Texas in the process of transitioning into a closed low. Cooler temps on tap through the remainder of the workweek but still remaining above the norm. Deep northerly flow will overspread the area as the day progresses between low advancing east and southeast of the area and modest ridging approaching through the south plains.
233 PM EST Tue Feb 21 2017 500mb analysis and WV loop shows an upper low across the ARKLAMISS. As the low pressure centers get further away early Wednesday, the rainfall chances will decrease.
1150 AM CST Tue Feb 21 2017 upper low centered over se AR wrapping low clouds in northerly flow back into cwa.
Showers and isolated thunderstorms will likely persist for much of the period as an upper trough slowly moves across the region.
317 PM CST Tue Feb 21 2017 A weak cold front will continues to push through region and should clear the area by 9z tonight. An area of high pressure will slowly build into the area from the west.
Cooler and showery weather is forecast for Wednesday and continuing for the rest of the work. Drier but cooler weather is forecast for the upcoming weekend. With temperatures in the low 30s, the Spokane/Coeur d'Alene area has received up to 2 inches of wet accumulation with the most significant accumulations generally above 2000 feet. We may see an additional inch or two of accumulation around Spokane, Coeur d'Alene, Rockford, Sandpoint, and the high terrain around Moscow.
SHORT TERM (Tonight through Wednesday Night): Northwest flow aloft will continue to bring widespread subsidence across South Texas behind a strong eastward-moving 500mb low pressure system. With sunny skies and very low moisture, temperatures have soared into the low 90s in many areas with the Brownsville airport already tying the daily record high temperature as of this writing.
The 7 pm regional surface analysis showed a decaying, quasi- stationary front oriented east to west across central FL and the Gulf of Mexico, with a weak high pressure system and relatively dry airmass to its north. Upper air data showed a deep-layer ridge axis over the central Gulf Coast, and a closed 500 mb low over NM. The ridge near our region will keep the weather fair across our forecast area overnight.
828 PM MST Mon Feb 13 2017 Thin high clouds continue to stream over the area out of the northwest as upper level ridge axis is currently centered over eastern Washington/Oregon and the Idaho panhandle. Despite temperatures making it into the 40s and 50s for many places today, temperatures had already dipped down into the lower 30s across much of the area this evening.
A little breezy with high pressure over southeast Canada and low pressure in the lee of the northern Rockies. Weak cold air advection through Tuesday will yield slightly cooler conditions tonight and tomorrow central. However, the arrival of low level warm air advection far west tomorrow will result in slightly warmer conditions in the lower 40s.
Templer Previous discussion - Synoptic Setup: Coldest air sits over Baffin Island with the surrounding trough dipping down into the Eastern Canada and the Great lakes. A long wave ridge has formed in response over the US and Canada coastline where it is cresting over southern Alaska and is moving inland rapidly. Northeast montana sits under northwest flow aloft on the warmer side of this gradient. Today and Tonight: As warm air moves in aloft and surface temperatures rise above freezing today, snow coverage is beginning to melt away. This is providing for a moisture layer at the lowest levels where winds are not strong enough to mix it away.
905 PM CST Mon Feb 13 2017 Weak high pressure remains in place across much of the SE region this Mon evening, translating into quiet and fairly seasonal temps thus far. Temp trends were mainly in the lower/mid 40s for many locations, although a few spots have lowered into the upper 30s. A stormy flow was moving across the northern Pacific Basin, as a powerful jet between 30-40N, and east of Japan to 150W continued south of upper lows east of the Kamchatka and the Aleutians.
As of Monday afternoon, a cutoff low pressure system continues to spin over the southwestern CONUS. The center of this low pressure system will slowly drift east through New Mexico this evening. By midnight low pressure will transition eastward, with the best dynamic support for snow and mid-level moisture content shifting east into the high plains as well.
West flank of the line has been struggling to extend beyond the west edge of the Gulf Stream as the cooler shelf waters are not providing the sufficient sfc instability. Low-level flow near the coast will veer more to the east overnight as the post frontal ridge pushes acrs the Deep South/FL Panhandle. A moderate to fresh N/NE wind surge will gradually diminish as the broad post frontal ridge centered over the mouth of the MS River drifts acrs the FL peninsula.
Increasing chances for lower clouds will then occur Tues afternoon from north to south with the approach of a cold front from the north. Tightening pressure gradient between a deepening low pressure system dropping southeast from the western shore of Hudson Bay and surface riding settling south of the area will lead to steady southwest flow overnight tonight promoting warm air advection into Tuesday morning. With clear skies and relatively light winds early, expect the low temperatures to occur by midnight with steady to slowly rising temperatures overnight.
Lingering portion of upper trof should move overhead Fri, but should be moisture starved. 47 A backdoor cold front moved westward across the area earlier today.
After 14Z, a cold front pushes through the I-35 corridor bringing an end to TSRA, but with some shower activity continuing for a few hours behind the boundary. There has been little change in model solutions over the past day or so, and all models continue to project scattered showers in the western half of our area through the evening, then a line of strong to marginally severe storms along a cold front, sweeping through areas west of I-35 between midnight and 6 am. Otherwise, high pressure will quickly usher in cooler air and clear skies from west to east Tuesday afternoon and evening.
904 PM EST Mon Feb 13 2017 High pressure should maintain dry weather through tomorrow. Snow shower chances return with a Tuesday night cold front.
1019 PM EST Mon Feb 13 2017 High pressure will build eastward from the Ohio Valley overnight.
737 PM EST Mon Feb 13 2017 High pressure should maintain dry weather through tomorrow. Snow shower chances return with a Tuesday night cold front.
736 PM EST Mon Feb 13 2017 High pressure will build eastward from the Ohio Valley overnight.
Mountain valleys will be mostly clear with light winds and favored locations could drop into the low single digits. Expect highs near 50 across the urban corridor to low 50s far eastern and northern Plains of Colorado with downslope off the Cheyenne Ridge. The net impact is temps in the low 30s for highs across the mountain valleys and low 20s above 10000 feet. A weak pressure gradient across the state and weak flow aloft means winds should stay below 25 mph across the high country.
The latest RAP model soundings are indicating a lack of deep saturation through the column, with some low-level saturation present, indicating more of a drizzle/freezing drizzle precipitation type tonight and Tuesday morning, eventually transitioning to more snow as cold air advection enhances behind the front late Tuesday morning. Where freezing drizzle occurs is where some slick roads are more likely to develop. The low-level cold air advection will bring colder 925 mb air during the day Tuesday with values between -2 to -4 degrees C Tuesday morning dropping to -7 to -9 degrees C by Tuesday evening for DLH.
413 PM MST Mon Feb 13 2017 Closed upper low is centered near the southern Arizona/New Mexico border, with SW diffluent flow over the southern plains. RAP soundings as of 18Z continues to show warm enough Tw aloft to support rain reaching the surface this afternoon/evening and with above freezing temps this should limit any frozen precip potential.
Our forecast looks to be in good shape, but cooler air has moved into our western counties. We have lowered the low temperatures a few degrees out there as we are already close to forecast lows. After 14Z, a cold front pushes through the I-35 corridor bringing an end to TSRA, but with some shower activity continuing for a few hours behind the boundary. There has been little change in model solutions over the past day or so, and all models continue to project scattered showers in the western half of our area through the evening, then a line of strong to marginally severe storms along a cold front, sweeping through areas west of I-35 between midnight and 6 am. Otherwise, high pressure will quickly usher in cooler air and clear skies from west to east Tuesday afternoon and evening.
An arcing warm front extended from the low to the coastal TX/LA border.
715 PM EST Mon Feb 13 2017 Temperatures dropping off fairly quickly this evening given high pressure and light winds in place. Expect a ridge/valley temperature split tonight with valleys dipping into the mid-upper 20s as ridges remain in the low 30s. As the low passes by to our south on Tuesday night, models agree on moisture/precip making its way north across the TN/KY border. Temperatures should be mostly above freezing, with the exception of the highest elevations near the VA border.
A narrow ridge of high pressure quickly moves across the region Tuesday before another storm to impact the region for the remainder of this week with increasing winds and the chance for snow showers. By early afternoon, this ridge should be east of the region as the aforementioned warm advection aloft moves through the region. Otherwise, highs Tuesday should climb toward or above freezing south of I90 with upper 20s to lower 30s to the north.
634 PM PST Mon Feb 13 2017 Strong high pressure will bring dry weather to much of the Inland Northwest through Tuesday.
932 PM EST Mon Feb 13 2017 High pressure will build over the area through Tuesday.
Temperatures will likely top out in the upper 40s to the lower 50s for highs. Overnight lows will cool into the lower 30s in many areas. We'll see partly to mostly cloudy skies with highs in the lower 50s. For now, have kept chance PoPs going across the south with lows in the lower 30s in the north and in the middle 30s across the south.
626 PM EST Mon Feb 13 2017 High pressure builds in today for decreasing winds and dry conditions. Cold front with light rain and snow showers mid week.
Low level wind shear will be a threat across southern Wisconsin early tonight as surface winds relax, but the low level jet remains rather strong. A cold front will sweep through the area late tonight. Southwest to west winds will approach small craft advisory conditions tonight with a few gusts to 25 knots, ahead of an approaching trough of low pressure from the northwest. That trough and its associated cold front will sweep through Lake Michigan by, or shortly after sunrise on Tuesday.
Temps will be cooler tonight with lows in the mid 40s north zones to upper 40s/lower 50s south zones.
This is where the lowest visibilities are expected. Rain will continue to affect the area overnight into at least Tuesday morning as an upper low continues to approach and move across the Southern Plains. The rain will gradually end Tuesday afternoon and evening as the low begins to exit the area, with the rain hanging on the longest in S/SE portions of the fa. Temperatures are expected to remain above freezing that winter precipitation is not expected tonight. Some locations could see as much as 1-2 inches of rain by Tuesday evening, with the highest amounts expected in portions of southern OK and north TX.
306 PM MST Mon Feb 13 2017 A low pressure system moving out of the Desert Southwest will mean a lingering chance of showers mainly across eastern Arizona through Tuesday.
504 PM MST Mon Feb 13 2017 Upper level analysis shows a ridge over the west coast, and a low over southern AZ/NM. Mild and dry weather will continue through the week, as the upper ridge slowly transitions eastward.
High pressure aloft will strengthen across the region through midweek, resulting in dry and stable conditions.
732 PM EST Mon Feb 13 2017 High pressure builds into the area tonight and Tuesday.
/Issued 313 PM CST Mon Feb 13 2017/ Rain continues to increase west of I-35 this afternoon as compact upper level low moves east across New Mexico.
630 PM EST Mon Feb 13 2017 High pressure overhead this evening will shift to the east coast overnight. Southwest flow will ramp up on Tuesday in advance of a trough developing over the Upper Great Lakes. The trough will deepen across the Great Lakes Region on Tuesday night pulling a cold front south across the area. Lingering cloud cover in Pennsylvania will gradually erode overnight as the ridge axis moves overhead and the flow backs to the southwest. Southwest flow and warm advection will increase on Tuesday ahead of the next trough that will deepen across the Great Lakes region during the mid-week period. Daytime hours will be dry with very dry air above 800mb until the airmass starts to moisten as the cold front approaches.
612 PM EST Mon Feb 13 2017 High pressure will build over the area through Tuesday.
The highest rain chances will occur tomorrow night. Just as the precip is ending, freezing levels do start to drop down to below 1000 ft agl across the northern Plateau.
1021 PM EST Mon Feb 13 2017 High pressure will build eastward from the Ohio Valley overnight.
831 PM EST Mon Feb 13 2017 A frontal boundary remains situated across the Florida peninsula this evening and will remain stalled tonight as weak ridging aloft gets suppressed and the flow becomes more zonal. Indeed, the forecast concern for the night will be the low-level moisture in place along with the stalled frontal boundary.
631 PM EST Mon Feb 13 2017 High pressure will bring clear skies tonight with lows in the lower 30s. A cold front will bring a brief spell of more seasonable temperatures and possibly a few snow showers Tuesday night otherwise the work week will remain mostly dry.
/Issued 410 PM EST Mon Feb 13 2017/ Mostly clear and cooler today with some increasing clouds and rain moving into N GA Tues. High pressure over the area will keep things dry for the next 24 hours but this ridge will weaken and allow increased moisture and showers to push into N GA Tuesday afternoon. Low temps tonight expected in the 30s and lower 40s across the CWA with high temps Tue just a few deg warmer than today.
To our West another trough is digging across West Texas.
543 PM CST Mon Feb 13 2017 High pressure will slide off to the east this evening, allowing a weak upper disturbance to approach from the west. A cold front will be departing to the southeast of our counties Tuesday evening, as its parent low pressure center moves across southern Ontario toward New York State.
1004 PM EST Mon Feb 13 2017 High pressure over the area tonight will shift off the coast Tuesday.
753 PM CST Mon Feb 13 2017 Evening water vapor imagery shows a PV max near El Paso, part of a parent trough over the Southwest CONUS in the southern stream, moving east. Another trough was diving southeast across the Midwest in the northern stream. The rain band should gradually shift south late tonight into Tuesday, partly due to the influence of the northern stream trough. /Issued 313 PM CST Mon Feb 13 2017/ Rain continues to increase west of I-35 this afternoon as compact upper level low moves east across New Mexico.
608 PM EST Mon Feb 13 2017 High pressure should maintain dry weather through tomorrow. Snow shower chances return with a Tuesday night cold front.
The highest impact conditions are expected after 14/12z.
615 PM EST Mon Feb 13 2017 High pressure will settle over the area tonight and shift off the coast on Tuesday.
High pressure over the region will bring dry conditions along with warming temperatures through the middle of the week.