Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
/issued 319 AM CDT SUN MAY 22 2016/ Upper low over the NW part of the country this morning will continue to lift NE but additional lobes will rotate down behind it. Upper ridge over the area will shift east as the trough grows across the Western US. It will take most of the week for this secondary part of the trough to swing through and by the time it does another upper low moves onto the NW coast. Have very good low level moisture in place this morning with dewpts in the low to mid 60s and even into the 70s in Terrell.
400 PM MDT SUN MAY 22 2016 H5 hand analysis at 12z had a dominant ridge over the central CONUS with low pressure systems along both right and left coastal states. Our CWA is squeezed between the ridge and west coast low leaving moderately fast southwest flow aloft. but at ridgetops and near showers gusty winds will continue into the evening. Downstream blocking over the eastern states over the next 24 to 36 hours leaves low pressure over the northern rockies and intermountain west. 5 PVU progs suggest another wave passing through Monday afternoon during peak heating and will lead to another round of convection over the higher terrain over the northern mountains. Temperatures will be slightly warmer on Monday but stay below normal for this time of May.
Upper trough that brought the clouds yesterday has slid off to the west, and now we are seeing the influences of the eastern periphery of upper level ridging. Middle Tennessee is now under the influence of surface and upper level ridging resulting in clear skies.
221 PM CDT SUN MAY 22 2016 At 19z, a large area of high pressure was centered across northern Missouri and extended southeast through the lower Ohio and Tennessee valley region.
Cold front is located over the outer coastal waters as slightly cooler and drier air has moved into the area. High pressure will become centered east of the area by tomorrow with generally near normal temperatures expected. Our area will be mostly in southwest flow aloft between a mean trough over the western states and a building ridge from the southwest Gulf of Mexico to the Atlantic coast.
258 PM EDT SUN MAY 22 2016 Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb trough in the wrn U. and troughing in the east with a ridge across the central U. The ridge builds into the upper Great Lakes tonight and remains through Monday.
320 PM EDT SUN MAY 22 2016 Showers today will give way to drier and warmer weather through mid week.
(Issued 1055 AM CDT SUN MAY 22 2016) Compared to yesterday, this morning was drier and cooler by 5-10 degrees with overnight lows in the 50s. JMS For 18Z TAFs: Low pressure off the Carolina coast and high pressure building into the region has increased the pressure gradient over the TN Valley and winds have responded with gusts upwards of 20kts.
An active pattern will remain in place for the next several days as a long wave trough remains positioned across the Western half of the country.
311 PM CDT SUN MAY 22 2016 An upper-level ridge over the region will continue to provide for ideal conditions the remainder of the day before a persistent unsettled pattern arrives tomorrow. Temperatures will climb to the low 80s this afternoon as surface flow transitions out of the south. This southerly surface flow will advect moisture into the region throughout the week as dewpoints currently in the upper 50s rise into the lower 70s by the mid week. The low-level jet over central Kansas will slowly push eastward early Monday morning and the area within this flow will be the focus for the first of many rounds of thunderstorms beginning Monday. This activity will be maintained coincident with the low- level jet, along a SW to NE axis mostly west of I-35 before expanding eastward into the afternoon and evening hours.
The high resolution models have the first cells going up close to 4 pm MDT.
116 PM EDT SUN MAY 22 2016 Aviation High pressure will remain in control of the weather pattern through Monday and result in mostly clear skies and a continued moderating trend of temperatures.
*None A pattern of mid clouds and virga will finish moving through SE Michigan prior to sunrise associated with an upper wave and backdoor cold front. The incoming air behind this front will be a few degrees cooler compared to yesterday, especially in the Thumb region where onshore flow from Lake Huron will provide extra cooling. In the meantime, the sharp upper level ridge aligned over the central U. will produce a due north flow over lower Michigan that will be strongly subsident on the downstream side of the ridge axis.
Low chances for thunderstorms will continue tonight through Monday as a weak ridging feature aloft over S TX keeps SW flow aloft and a teleconnection with the Pacific tropics. The high CAPE/low shear environment still capable of generating an isolated severe storm or two.
An active weather pattern expected late this week and through The forecast area remains under the influence of weak ridging aloft between long wave troughs over both wrn and ern North America.
Today Through Monday Night A strong upper ridge will be over the plains today, with an upper trough over the east coast and an upper low over the Pacific Northwest. This upper ridge will not move east of the area until late Monday.
The upper ridge axis is slowly shifting east of our area today, with west-southwest flow aloft upstream of the ridge axis. Looking for afternoon highs today in the low to mid 80s under mostly cloud skies.
257 PM EDT SUN MAY 22 2016 Low pressure will weaken south of Nova Scotia overnight as another area of low pressure develops off the mid atlantic coast.
A cross CONUS blocking trough-ridge-trough pattern keeps a warm and relatively dry swly flow over Colorado through mid-week.
354 PM MDT SUN MAY 22 2016 A strong upper level low is spinning just north of our forecast area, and slowly drifting northeast into Saskatchewan. Deep moisture wrapping around the west side of the upper low is producing record rainfall, per NWS MSO, at some locations west of the Continental Divide.
Another nice day is on the way with a small upper level ridging over the region this afternoon. We will remain dry and comfortable again tonight with lows back down into the lower 50s out east to around 60 for western areas. The first of several impulses of energy from a large upper level trough that is developing across the Four Corners Region and the Western U.
Cooler weather will continue with the presence of a persisting upper trough over the region through the midweek. A large-scale general or overall trough stretches over the western states and the high plains regions. This predominance of some version of low pressure influence will simply add to the multiple forecast periods of northeast Montana not quite being free from the threat of precipitation.
Upper low centered over Pennsylvania this afternoon with northerly flow down through the Ohio and Tennessee valleys.
455 PM MDT SUN MAY 22 2016 Upper low spins over southern Alberta, with a 100+ kt jet pushing into the Northern Plains. Cold front has stalled over western SD and isn't progged to leave the CWA until around 06Z.
140 PM CDT SUN MAY 22 2016 138 PM CDT Sunshine and warmth will be the main story in the near term as high pressure is sprawled across the Great Lakes and portions of the mid to upper Mississippi Valley. The ridge axis is centered just to our north this afternoon allowing a light northeast breeze to keep the lake front cooler while temperatures inland warm into the low 80s. The ridge axis will slide to our southeast overnight allowing southerly flow to overspread the forecast area tomorrow. Parts of Lake County and northern Cook County will be the main areas of concern where an afternoon lake breeze will keep temperatures cooler. As the low level jet veers late into the overnight hours.
An upper level trough over Northern California will bring continued cooling to the area through the weekend.
207 PM EDT SUN MAY 22 2016 High pressure will provide several more days of dry and warm weather to the region. Highs today will range from the lower 70s over south central Lower Michigan to near 80 over west central Indiana.
343 PM CDT SUN MAY 22 2016 Sunny skies and light winds are providing a tranquil summer day to the area today, with most locations in the lower 80s as of 2 pm. Dewpoints in the lower to mid 40s are creating humidity levels of 20 to 30 %. The high pressure overhead will keep clear and quiet conditions in place tonight, and will linger Monday with increasing south winds and high clouds. Lows tonight will likely be a few degrees warmer than night, as modification continues.
a ridge of high pressure remained positioned over the Central United States with a longwave trof west of the Rocky Mountains and another one over the East Coast region. an area of low pressure had set up lee of the Rocky Mountains with a dryline extending southward through Eastern Colorado and Eastern New Mexico. scattered cloud cover is expected again across the CWA with breezy southerly winds as the ridge axis shifts eastward. will carry the higher pops west of Highway 75 in Northeast Oklahoma late tonight. This active pattern is progged to continue into the middle part of the week as the longwave trof remains west of the Rocky Mountains and the ridge becomes positively tilted from the Southern Plains to the Great Lakes Region.
However, the gusts should begin diminishing in the late afternoon and early evening hours as high pressure moves overhead.
High pressure will drift across the Great Lakes region tonight and Monday. Decent radiational cooling once again will give us low temperatures in the lower 50s tonight with spotty lower temps like last night. Therefore, high temperatures will be similar to the highs today, but a little warmer near the lake with a delayed easterly wind component.
Some of the latest models are suggesting the the cold front/dry line will slide across the far western CWA as early as 0Z. High res models starting to hint at this with mainly spotty/weak/elevated convection possible just about anywhere across the cwa through much of the day thanks to that 700mb plume of warmer air, however there isn't much consistency with convective development through 00Z within the location of the front. CAM solutions point to an evening 0-3Z depiction of stronger cell development, suggesting that the low level jet will play a larger role in convective initiation and maintenance. The low level jet lingers across the eastern CWA well into Monday morning, with redevelopment during the afternoon likely to be just along the eastern extreme of the cwa before storms move off into Minnesota.
Benign weather is expected tonight in the wake of a cold front with mostly clear skies and diminishing winds. Overnight lows are expected to range from the mid to upper 50s inland to the low to mid 60s along the beaches.
Dry and mild conditions under deep layer WNW flow will continue between stacked high pressure across the CONUS and low pressure offshore of the mid- Atlantic and New England seaboards. High temperatures were warming into the lower 80s across SE Ga to the mid 80s across NE Fl under breezy WNW winds 12-15 mph with gusts up to 20-24 mph. Anticipate some diurnally driven low level cumulus with temperatures a little warmer inland in the mid 80s to the low/mid 80s toward the Atlantic coast.
Low pressure continues to sit over the Great Basin.
Cold front slowly moving west to east across our counties this morning with considerably drier low level air in its wake with dewpoints falling from the 50s to the 30s. By this afternoon, the cold front will reside across our far eastern counties of the western Nebraska panhandle with decent low level convergence across the front. With adequate low and mid level moisture, expecting isolated thunderstorms to erupt this afternoon across all our counties with the greatest coverage of scattered thunderstorms near the baroclinic band and cold front over far eastern Wyoming and western Nebraska.
212 PM EDT SUN MAY 22 2016 Upper level low lingers above mid Atlantic states through Monday night.
The cold front will be moving slowly through the forecast area Monday night.
/18Z TAF CYCLE/ MVFR conditions mostly prevail across the region with a few pockets of VFR beginning to develop as the low stratus slowly mixes out and upwards vertically. Most convection should weaken by late evening as boundary layer cooling helps to stabilize the low-levels.
This high pressure system will slowly retreat to the east over the next 24 hours while a high amplitude upper ridge shifts westward into the MS Valley. Warming aloft attendant with the upper level ridge will translate to continued moderation of temperatures with highs today finally rising to above average levels for late May. The upper ridge axis will shift to the east of the area on Monday with flow aloft becoming southwesterly. However, the greatest advection and convergence will be focused further west across the Plains into western MO in association with a 35-40 kt southerly LLJ and this is where the highest probability of deep convection will reside.
High pressure ridge over eastern IA providing clear skies and light winds across the cwa. Today, another fantastic spring day with high pressure ridge gradually shifting into IL by late afternoon. This should push afternoon readings into the lower 80s at many locations, with a couple of spots (including MLI) reaching 84 or so. Tonight, dry airmass and clear skies again as the ridge axis will be over IL keeping our counties near and east of the MS river in light winds. However, in the western cwa the return southeast flow will keep readings a bit warmer than guidance. On Monday, expect warm temperatures in the low 80s, with an increasing south wind boosting dewpoints into the 50s.
124 PM EDT SUN MAY 22 2016 Upper level low lingers above mid Atlantic states through Monday night.
Trough over the southeast U. will continue to dig south and cut off near the Carolina coast, while the associated frontal trough will gradually push through the area. The HRRR model shows a few showers spreading across the peninsula from Lake Okeechobee south after midnight, just ahead of the frontal trough.
an upper level trough is keeping cold air aloft over NW California.
Rain and high elevation snow continues to fall as the low pressure rotates counter clockwise in southern Alberta today.
and Saturday Primary concern deals with the elements with a strong cold front passage this morning. A cluster of storms along the warm front will lift north early this morning followed by the cold front wind shift toward daybreak. Decreasing clouds and the cooler drier air mass will lead to near freezing temperatures tonight. Boundary winds may be enough to limit frost, but the cold spots over North Central and Central Wisconsin may produce pockets of freezing temperatures. A series of short wave troughs may tend to keep more clouds around the northern Great Lake region tonight into Saturday. But the air mass is cold with near freezing temperatures still possible.
253 AM EDT Fri Oct 7 2016 After a foggy start along the rivers, high pressure will bring a summer-like day to the region today, with temperatures in the 70s.
Models are in good agreement showing the CWA sitting between upper level high pressure over southern TX and low pressure over Ontario, with the only disturbance of note over the far southwestern CONUS. At the surface, the day looks to start out with southwesterly winds, as high pressure sits in the KS/OK/MO area and a trough axis is moving through the High Plains.
314 AM CDT Fri Oct 7 2016 For the short term, concerns will focus on freezing temperatures ending the growing season Friday night and the possibility of light snow across the north. The upper low initially over southern Manitoba Friday morning is forecast to move northeast and out of the region by Friday night.
Clear skies will continue tonight as the ridge of high pressure remains across the forecast area. At the same time, slightly cooler 850 temps will make their way into the area as well thanks to a brief northeasterly wind.
440 AM MDT Fri Oct 7 2016 Much drier air moving over northern Colorado today, but between yesterday's rain and the east winds last evening a bit of low level moisture remains in the low lying areas north of Denver.
The location/movement of Matthew combined with sfc ridging centered over New England and stretching down the E side of the Appalachians, will keep sfc winds easterly across the forecast area.
winds are out of the southwest to west near 10 knots and gusty at the island terminals, while marine reporting station west of the Seven Mile Bridge show 15 to 20 knots, and east of the bridge near 20 knots.
349 AM CDT FRI OCT 7 2016 Upper trough passing over the Central Plains this morning has pushed a cold front southward. As the trough passes off to the east the ridge will build back across the region with mild wx for the rest of the coming week. Yesterday the highs were in the 90s across most of the area with a regional high of 102 degrees at Rio Grande Village. However that is changing soon as a cold front is moving through.
In the low levels, a strong cold front stretched from a cyclone over western Wisconsin south-southwest through the Ozark Plateau into the southern High Plains as of 07z with an area of high pressure centered over western Nebraska. Both clouds and winds are diminishing early this morning from west-to-east across the forecast area with temperatures likely falling to near freezing by sunrise over portions of northeast Nebraska. Weak cold advection in the low levels this morning will transition to downslope warming by afternoon with high temperatures rebounding into the lower to mid 60s.
341 AM EDT Fri Oct 7 2016 High pressure over the northeast remains in place through tonight. Low pressure over Ontario will move eastward and its attached cold front will move across the area on Saturday, as Hurricane Matthew moves up the southeastern United States coast.
That pretty much sums up what we can expect today as cold air advection continues following this morning's long awaited and well-advertised cold front. Today marks the first real taste of the fall season as afternoon highs will struggle to reach the low 60s even with clearing skies anticipated through the late morning and afternoon hours. North winds of 10-15 mph will continue filtering cooler air south over our region today as strong high pressure settles over the lower Missouri Valley. This will set the stage for the coolest night of the year so far with lows Saturday morning expected to dip into the lower 40s for most areas. a pretty quiet and straight forward forecast looks to be in the offering as high pressure slowly shifts east through the upcoming weekend.
320 AM MDT Fri Oct 7 2016 A cold and dry airmass over the area and clear skies overnight resulted in freezing to near freezing temperatures this morning in some lower elevation areas that have not yet received freezing conditions. A freeze warning remains in effect until 9 am mdt for portions of the northwest CO plateau, upper Colorado River valley and the lower Gunnison and Uncompahgre River valleys.
An upper ridge will gradually build over the area tonight through Saturday, resulting in decreasing clouds and warmer temperatures. Highs will be 5-10 degrees warmer today and another 5-10 degrees warmer on Saturday.
A cold front is forecast to push across the area late this morning into the afternoon hours. The cold front is expected to exit South-Central Texas later this afternoon/early evening. Highs will be few degrees cooler than previous days.
515 AM CDT FRI OCT 7 2016 Early morning IR imagery together with surface obs showed and area of precipitation from southern Ontario through northern Texas as a powerful fall season cyclone moved across central North America. Cold air on the back side of this cyclone managed to produce some snow across northern MN. A quiet and cool Fall weekend is expected with Minnesota/Wisconsin tucked in behind a trough moving from the Great Lakes to the northeast CONUS.
This will bring some warmer temperatures, although still slightly below normal today, then nearing normal tomorrow.
618 AM EDT Fri Oct 7 2016 An approaching cold front will bring rain to the area later today through Saturday morning.
A warming trend will continue into Saturday as high pressure builds over the district.
The large upper trough has moved off to our east, but is still influencing our temperatures by dragging colder air into Northeast Montana. There is another trough that is bringing wind and precipitation to the Pacific Northwest. This ridge will continue the dry conditions for the most part today but only a slight improvement to the temperatures, based on increasing heights. This action combined with the ridge will establish the stationary frontal boundary across the local region.
Low pressure will form on the Central/Northern High Plains tonight setting up southwest winds. The upper low across Manitoba is forecast to move east and carry the cloud cover across the Dakota east. Heights aloft will gradually rise through the weekend as weak upper level ridging builds northward across the central plains.
333 AM CDT FRI OCT 7 2016 A surface and upper ridge will prevail over the Panhandles today through tonight before moving east away from the forecast area by late Saturday.
254 AM EDT Fri Oct 7 2016 High pressure will bring dry conditions and mild temperatures through tonight.
328 AM CDT Fri Oct 7 2016 Thunderstorms have moved out of the dvn cwa early this morning with only a band of light showers ahead of the strong cold front. Today: The strong cold front will move across the entire cwa early this morning. Strong subsidence in the wake of the upper level trough pushing eastward will allow for plenty of sunshine later this morning and through the afternoon. Cold air advection will bring a much cooler day to the area with highs ranging from the upper 50s to lower 60s at most locations. Tonight: High pressure building into the area will provide clear skies, light winds and a very dry airmass. Most locations should have lows in the lower 40s but some upper 30s are possible especially along Highway 20.
An upper level trough will move across the Central Plains today, sending a cold front south into South Texas overnight tonight. The higher moisture axis that has been positioned over the coastal waters and eastern counties will shift further west over the Brush Country and Rio Grande Plains today ahead of the approaching cold front. A dry forecast is then in store for Saturday with high pressure settling over the state.
121 AM EDT Fri Oct 7 2016 Slow moving upper level low will be affecting the region.
638 AM EDT Fri Oct 7 2016 High pressure will gradually lose its grip on the area today leading to a cold front that will move through the region Saturday.
1118 PM MDT Thu Oct 6 2016 Forecast focus in the short term is the high likelihood of frost across the entire forecast area tonight and into Friday morning. A cooler and dryer airmass moves in, northwest winds turn southwest and become light, and skies become mostly clear. As this happens, temperatures will cool below 36 degrees beginning over northeast Colorado with cooler temperatures expected to spread southeastward across far southwest Nebraska and northwest Kansas. Far eastern Colorado could see temperatures drop slightly below 30 degrees while the remainder of northwest Kansas and southwest Nebraska will see overnight lows mainly in the lower 30s. A ridge will gradually build across the southern and central plains Friday and Saturday.
Widespread precipitation will develop, especially along and north of the Highway 12 corridor. Snow levels will increase to around 6500-7000 feet across the area as southerly flow brings warmer air into the region, keeping snow accumulations in the highest terrain. Drier air tonight will bring a generally decrease in shower activity, although showers will likely continue across the higher terrain.
227 AM EDT Fri Oct 7 2016 High pressure will remain across the area today and tonight then move east on Saturday.
411 AM EDT Fri Oct 7 2016 An approaching cold front will bring rain to the area later today through Saturday morning.