Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Otherwise, temperatures will remain a few degrees cooler compared to yesterday behind last night's weak cold front. Otherwise, Friday highs will peak a few degrees warmer east of the Divide and about the same west. Saturday will be a transition day of northwest flow ahead of a building upper level ridge.
141 AM EDT Fri Jul 29 2022 High pressure centered over the Upper Mississippi valley this morning will settle over the mid western states this afternoon and tonight. As the area of high pressure moves east of us during the second half of the weekend. our fair weather will include warmer and somewhat more humid conditions. The highest chance for precipitation will come from a lake breeze convergence zone over the Niagara Frontier and also for areas east/southeast of the Finger Lakes where there will be notably deeper in moisture in place. While only a few degrees cooler on Friday, the main difference will be the feeling of a less humid airmass.
While the true cold front will remain displaced to the northwest of the area across portions of KY/TN, scattered storms are expected to develop along pre-existing boundaries from earlier convection during the morning hours.
1254 AM EDT Fri Jul 29 2022 Shower and thunderstorm chance return today, mainly from Pit south, with a reinforcing cold front. Do expect a shower or sprinkles to move through the area overnight ahead of a weak cold front. The best forcing and deepest moisture will be ahead of the front, which places the highest PoPs over the southern third of the region.
1257 AM EDT Fri Jul 29 2022 A developing area of low pressure in the Ohio Valley will track along the Mason Dixon Line Friday. High pressure will then build across Pennsylvania this weekend.
Wouldn't be surprised with the lack of moisture at the low-levels if some dry thunderstorms occur as well. Vertz An upper ridge over the Great Basin will gradually work into the forecast area this weekend for hot and primarily dry weather.
we stay in northwest flow with a ridge of high pressure to our west over Idaho and Nevada. PWATs begin to fall more on Saturday with all areas below an inch as ridge axis continues to move east into western WYoming.
258 AM EDT Fri Jul 29 2022 The synoptic pattern features a deep closed low over eastern Ontario with anomalous westerlies aloft on its southern fringe. Positional differences in the overall pattern lead to modest confidence at best with time, but there is general agreement that the upper level pattern will evolve two include two upper ridges with weak cyclonic flow in between by late in the week.
The best convective coverage will likely be across the Texas Panhandle as a cold front pushes southward before stalling. On Saturday the upper-level troughing that had remained over the Midwest for a few days will be lifting across the northeastern U.
The local area remains under a ridge aloft stretching across much of the southern tier of the CONUS through early this weekend. Another weak inverted trough/upper low cruises west into the southern Gulf on Friday afternoon and slides into the central Gulf by Saturday afternoon.
Temperatures were mainly in the mid 50s to the low 60s at 2 AM. High pressure will rule today and the main question is how warm and low to go tonight. Since guidance is usually good with high pressure, took the middle of the forecast temps.
SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday): The persistent mid-level ridge builds once again heading into the start of the weekend. Have once again gone above model guidance for highs, with MFE, HRL, and BRO especially all still topping out a few degrees warmer than NBM.
McD Chattanooga Airport, TN 90 73 87 72 87 / 80 60 70 40 70 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 87 72 85 71 84 / 70 60 70 40 80 Oak Ridge, TN 85 71 84 70 83 / 70 60 60 40 80 Tri Cities Airport, TN 83 69 82 68 81 / 70 50 60 40 80 TN.
A cooler/drier Canadian airmass has pushed south into NE this afternoon with dew points ranging from the 50s across southwest NE and 40s across northern NE. A cold front has settled well south of the area area across KS into CO, and this will be where the thunder focus will be through tonight into Friday.
125 AM EDT Fri Jul 29 2022 [Through 06Z Saturday] Another late morning through afternoon of widely scattered showers and thunderstorms, with DHN and ABY terminals having the highest PoPs. UA and sfc ridging persists across the CWA this aftn, resulting in continued srly sfc flow.
344 AM CDT Fri Jul 29 2022 Key Messages: - High pressure settling in behind the cold front today will lead to less humid, pleasant afternoons through Saturday.
(Today and tonight) Early this morning, a broad upper-level trough was located over the upper Midwest and Great Lakes, while a ridge remained in place across Texas and the Desert Southwest. Despite the trough dipping slightly into the southern Plains, the ridge should maintain its hold on much of Texas today as temperatures will reach to around 100 degrees this afternoon.
Radar shows first area of showers have dissipated acrs the northern CPV, while additional showers have developed acrs the southern SLV which wl impact the High Peaks over the next couple of hours. Mainly dry conditions are on tap for Friday with drier air filtering in behind a cold front. However, some weak vorticity advection near the International Border may yield some light showers across the higher terrain in Vermont and New York during the afternoon hours.
310 AM EDT Fri Jul 29 2022 A cold front will move southeast through the region today. High pressure will then build into the area tonight, settling across the Ohio Valley on Saturday.
1038 PM MDT Thu Jul 28 2022 19z surface analysis had weak frontal boundary meandering from southern WY into northern KS and a trough from central MT into central WY. Water vapour loop depicted upper ridge over OR/CA with very weak disturbances from BC/AB to WY/CO. Lee trough shifts eastward. Temperatures will rise a few degrees each day as thermal ridge expands northeast into the northern plains.
Pleasant and dry weather is expected today as high pressure remains in control. Highs will be below normal in the lower 80s, with dewpoints in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Saturday will remain cooler with below normal temperatures, but an increase in cloud cover and moisture will be apparent.
Otherwise high pressure gradually builds over the area as the ridge moves through the Great Lakes Region. Saturday will be a few degrees warmer than today with highs in the low 80s.
358 AM EDT Fri Jul 29 2022 Shower and thunderstorm chance return today, mainly from Pit south, with a reinforcing cold front. The best forcing and deepest moisture will be ahead of the front, which places the highest PoPs over the southern third of the region.
Lows will be in the lower to upper 70s later tonight. This is in combination with only weak ridging will lead to some isolated to possibly scattered showers and storms with the higher coverage expected over the Coastal Plains. Lows will be back in the lower to upper 70s once again with some nocturnal stratus once again.
346 AM EDT Fri Jul 29 2022 Effects from trough lingering in the vicinity of James Bay are being felt across the U. Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb ridge in the west 00z Sat with a trough in the lower Great Lakes. This trough remains over the area Sun into Sun night. In the extended, the GFS and ECMWF show a 500 mb troughing over the ern U. and Great Lakes region and a ridge over the Rockies 12z Mon. Ridging remains in the Rockies 12z Tue and then moves out into the plains 12z Wed. This ridge then remains near the area through Friday.
Despite an inverted trough propagating eastward over the Bahamas, Saharan Dust is advecting across the FL peninsula, suppressing almost any potential for storms today. High pressure stays in control, so the more typical mesoscale forcing along the sea breeze should be able to again take advantage of the moisture to support some storms.
305 AM CDT Fri Jul 29 2022 Lingering energy behind a short wave trough that moved through the Great Lakes has reinforced the cold front that cleared Kansas and has allowed it to continue pushing further south.
244 AM CDT Fri Jul 29 2022 For today, modest H5 height rises over western Nebraska as the upper trough moves into the Eastern Great Lakes. Kept highs limited to the upper 70s to near 80 south of I80, as more cloudiness and a cooler airmass residing across southeast CO and KS today. Saturday, warmer temperatures return to the eastern panhandle and northern NE, where highs reach the upper 80s to lower 90s. Highs remain limited to the low to mid 80s across southwest into central NE.
344 AM CDT Fri Jul 29 2022 Quiet and cooler weather will be present through much of the weekend.
With the high over us, to drifting east, subsidence will result in highly variable wind directions, more or less a 10 mph or less wind speed following the terrain.
A heatwave will continue to impact the Northern Rockies through this weekend as the western US remains under the influence of high pressure.
It is difficult to pinpoint exactly where the highest flooding concerns will be, but generally speaking those who have already received rounds of rainfall the past few days and those who receive multiple rounds of rain today will have the highest risk of flash flooding.
High pressure and generally light southwesterly flow at the sfc and mid-levels will continue the same pattern that we have been in with isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms. PoPs today range from 30-40% with the highest chances in our Western FL Panhandle and SE AL counties late this morning, then spreading eastward along I-10 through the afternoon hours. Temperatures today will range in the low to mid 90s with heat indices around 100.
At the sfc, a weak Denver cyclone will be in place with SSE low level flow across the plains. However, expect warmer temps this aftn so this will lead to a better chc of storms. Once again the HRRR is very aggressive in developing storms by midday, over the higher terrain, with outflow boundaries triggering sct storms along the I-25 Corridor by mid to late aftn. Meanwhile another focus for tstm development would be along a convergence zone associated with the Denver cyclone to the east and southeast of Denver. For tonight, tstm activity will end by early evening over the higher terrain.
558 AM EDT Fri Jul 29 2022 Available surface observations place a formidable 1029 mb high pressure cell centered in the vicinity of the Azores in the eastern Atlantic. An associated ridge extends southwestward, bisecting the Florida Peninsula near the Treasure Coast. Muggy conditions are in full force across the island chain, with temperatures only bottoming out in the lower 80s, and dew points in the lower 70s. In the wake of the departing trough, dry air looks to advect back into the Florida Keys, resulting in several periods of below rain chances.
632 AM CDT Fri Jul 29 2022 For today, modest H5 height rises over western Nebraska as the upper trough moves into the Eastern Great Lakes. Kept highs limited to the upper 70s to near 80 south of I80, as more cloudiness and a cooler airmass residing across southeast CO and KS today. Saturday, warmer temperatures return to the eastern panhandle and northern NE, where highs reach the upper 80s to lower 90s. Highs remain limited to the low to mid 80s across southwest into central NE.
Better chances for rain and cooler temperatures wl be the main story over the next few days, providing Arkansas w/ some much needed relief. Weak Nrly winds are expected behind the frnt, though the only relief felt wl be in air temps, as the muggy airmass wl lkly not be altered, leaving most locations cooler, but certainly still muggy and cloudy. Sat, a rinse and repeat pattern can be expected, w/ slightly cooler temps than Fri.
The ridge returns by midweek resulting in warming temperatures.
Despite the cooler air temperatures, it will feel muggy with dewpoint temperatures in the low to mid 70's across parts of central and southern Oklahoma.
Dry conditions and seasonable temperature is forecast through the weekend as high pressure builds across the region.
Highs near 80 across the area still look reasonable, but will have to keep an eye on the cirrus advecting into the area for any potential to keep things slightly cooler than currently expected. The synoptic pattern features a deep closed low over eastern Ontario with anomalous westerlies aloft on its southern fringe. Positional differences in the overall pattern lead to modest confidence at best with time, but there is general agreement that the upper level pattern will evolve two include two upper ridges with weak cyclonic flow in between by late in the week.
The synoptic pattern features a deep closed low over eastern Ontario with anomalous westerlies aloft on its southern fringe. Positional differences in the overall pattern lead to modest confidence at best with time, but there is general agreement that the upper level pattern will evolve two include two upper ridges with weak cyclonic flow in between by late in the week.
355 AM PDT Fri Jul 29 2022 Temperatures will increase into the weekend as high pressure shifts east.
722 AM EDT Fri Jul 29 2022 High pressure will prevail through tonight.
636 AM EDT Fri Jul 29 2022 A cold front will move southeast through the region today. High pressure will then build into the area tonight, settling across the Ohio Valley on Saturday.
805 AM EDT Fri Jul 29 2022 A cold front will move southeast through the region today. High pressure will then build into the area tonight, settling across the Ohio Valley on Saturday.
Another hot day is in store across the interior this afternoon as mid/upper level high pressure remains over far northern California. As such, temperatures remain in the 50s to near 60 deg F within the influence of the marine air-mass while readings in the 70s and 80s are being reported in the higher terrain. The aforementioned mid/upper level high pressure will begin to shift eastward toward the Great Basin through the remainder of the weekend while troughing develops off of the Pacific Northwest Coast.
Key Messages: - High pressure settling in behind the cold front today will lead to less humid, pleasant afternoons through Saturday.
Another hot day is in store across the interior this afternoon as mid/upper level high pressure remains over far northern California. As such, temperatures remain in the 50s to near 60 deg F within the influence of the marine air-mass while readings in the 70s and 80s are being reported in the higher terrain. The aforementioned mid/upper level high pressure will begin to shift eastward toward the Great Basin through the remainder of the weekend while troughing develops off of the Pacific Northwest Coast. KSFO Bridge Approach.
Calm winds overnight tonight will increase after sunrise Tuesday with the approach of a dry cold front that will move through the area during the day. Global model guidance is in generally good agreement in the short term, depicting a digging ERN CONUS trof which sends a reinforcing cold front through the area late tonight. Ahead of this feature, plenty of sun along with a warming low level temperature profile (thermal ridge) will yield a seasonably mild afternoon.
It will also be slightly cooler across the region.
Latest sfc obs show the cold front has made it thru all terminals but KFST/KPEQ. Radar and sfc obs show a cold front moving SSW. A dry cold front will move thru the CWA mid/late this aftn in the north. have not changed the High Wind Warning for the Pass for tonight thru Tuesday morning. Ridging will amplify in the Western US in response to a deep trof in the Eastern US and another deep trof in the Pacific around 160W.
255 PM CDT Mon Oct 23 2017 A northwest flow aloft will bring another short wave trough southeast through the central plains tonight. This will help to drive through another cold front across the Panhandles.
1240 PM CDT Mon Oct 23 2017 An upper level low was essentially parked over SC Missouri and NC Arkansas this morning. A very sharp clearing line near US Highway 65 will slowly move east this morning as the upper low begins its slow departure. As slow as this low is moving it may take much of the morning to clear out in the Eastern Ozarks. Winds will begin to increase and veer to the west and southwest Today ahead of an approaching cold front. The dry cold front looks to come through during the afternoon. Issued at 215 CDT Mon Oct 23 2017 The overall synoptic pattern the rest of the week into the weekend is a dry northwest flow with upper level troughs moving through every few days.
Then tonight, as cold front gradually approaches, additional showers will continue, especially out wet.
The primary concern for the short term period is the passage of a weak cold front overnight tonight and its effects on fire weather potential for the CWA.
However, The cold front is just now pushing across central Kentucky and will cross the area through this evening. Troughing will hold over the region through Tuesday night and this could allow low clouds to build into the area Tuesday night with lows dipping into the 30s.
1225 PM CDT Mon Oct 23 2017 Most of the low temperatures overnight took place before the frontal passage and in some cases that means the low was before or shortly after midnight. Temperatures in many places have jumped up by around 15 degrees in these pre-dawn hours with mixing behind the cold frontal passage. We expect cold air advection and strong winds across the entire area today behind a cold front. Despite the cold air advection, strong mixing will allow highs to climb close to where they were yesterday or generally about 5 degrees cooler than yesterday on average.
Forecast concerns include much cooler temperatures.
Winds will transition to easterly and southeasterly this afternoon/evening, but another cold front will bring northerly winds to the area on Tuesday morning. Generally weak to moderate NE to SE flow across South Texas this morning/afternoon, then weak/moderate generally E flow early evening, followed by light/variable tonight in advance of a cold front tonight.
314 PM CDT Mon Oct 23 2017 A dry sfc cold front is moving across our eastern counties with gusty winds. A Canadian air mass will remain in place through Tuesday with a large upper level trough over the eastern CONUS. Highs in the 50s, maybe the lower 60s, will be common.
Main concern in the short term is the cold frontal passage and associated rainfall later today and tonight. Snow threat is minimal with 850mb temps just touching below 0C and warmer air below. A large 500mb trof will be well established over the central U. northwest flow on the back side of the trof will usher in much colder air to the region.
Temperatures running several degrees warmer this afternoon. The greatest warming taking place over the Kern county mountains 10-15 degrees warmer from yesterday due to downsloping winds below the mountain passes. Models in good agreement indicating a ridge along the west coast will amplify northward through Tuesday night.
353 PM CDT Mon Oct 23 2017 A very powerful storm system will develop over the next 36 hours across the Great Lakes region as a broad upper level trough with a textbook PV signature merges with a cutoff low over the Tennessee River Valley. Winds will quickly subside early Tuesday evening as surface ridging briefly moves in.
At mid afternoon, a cold front was over East TN. For Tuesday and Tuesday night, another upper level wave will help dig out a sharp upper trough axis.
Radar and sfc obs show a cold front moving SSW. A dry cold front will move thru the CWA mid/late this aftn in the north. have not changed the High Wind Warning for the Pass for tonight thru Tuesday morning. Ridging will amplify in the Western US in response to a deep trof in the Eastern US and another deep trof in the Pacific around 160W.
347 PM CDT Mon Oct 23 2017 (Tonight and Tuesday) A dry cold front will move through all of West Central Texas through this evening. Ideal radiational cooling conditions will allow for temperatures to fall into the lower 40s and possibly even the upper 30s in lower lying areas.
302 PM CDT Mon Oct 23 2017 A much cooler pattern will remain established for the most part of the near term as a chilly batch of Canadian air works its way south through the Plains and into the lower OH Valley region Tuesday and Tuesday night.
251 PM CDT Mon Oct 23 2017 A dry cold front has pushed through roughly half of the forecast area early this afternoon, with gusty north to northwesterly winds behind it.
a few showers will linger as a cold front moves through. The front should exit the area tonight with dry and cooler air moving in. An upper low will then rotate in clouds and a few isolated showers. most of the area will be dry and partly cloudy with highs in the low to mid 60s across lower elevations and 50s in higher terrain. A longwave trough will be over the Eastern Conus to start the period, supplying much cooler conditions to the area than we have seen in some time. Some mountains locations could see temps close to freezing Tuesday night, but there will likely be cloud cover and winds under the upper trough to help prevent a widespread freeze.
There may be a few snow showers downwind of the lower Lakes across north-central PA.
456 AM CDT Sat Apr 7 2018 Current surface analysis places high pressure stretching from the Canadian plains through the northern and central plains resulting in frigid temperatures over much of the area. Upper level analysis places trough over the Great Lakes and ridge over the western United States, with deep low spinning off the Pacific northwest shore.
There is also a slight chance of light freezing drizzle early Saturday morning at KCDS but chances are too low to mention in the TAF. /issued 340 PM CDT Fri Apr 6 2018/ An impressive early April cold front will bring gusty northeasterly winds, blowing dust and sub-freezing temperatures to the region later this afternoon into tonight. Cold near surface air coupled with a warm nose aloft could support anything from freezing rain to sleet and perhaps even snow, though any amounts should be very light and of little/no impact given the warm ground too. Winds will quickly swing back around to the south Saturday night as return flow commences followed by gusty and much warmer westerly winds spreading across the Caprock Sunday afternoon.
Clouds will affect portions of CWA this morning, with scattered to broken clouds lingering into the afternoon, especially in the east, closer to thermal trof. Lingering low level moisture and thermal trof over southern WI should result in more cu redevelopment later this morning and afternoon, especially in the eastern areas. Diminishing boundary layer winds and clearing with approach of high pressure ridge will allow temps to fall back into the teens.
The cold front has made its way through the mid state, and northerly winds are bringing in the cold air behind. Temps should warm a bit late morning to bring an end to sleet/snow chances, but sleet/snow chances will continue for the northern Plateau and areas near the KY border where temps may still be in the low to mid 30s. Skies will begin to clear out in the afternoon and evening, and precip chances will push off to the east as the upper trough heads east as well. High temps will only recover to the low to mid 50s for most of the area as 850mb temps are right around 0C.
519 AM EDT Sat Apr 7 2018 Low pressure will move into the area today and bring showers and possible thunderstorms. The low will lift northeast of the area tonight. High pressure in the wake of the system will dominate briefly Sunday.
303 AM EDT Sat Apr 7 2018 High pressure builds into the area today into Sunday with seasonably cold weather continuing and a few mainly mountain flurries or light snow showers.
138 AM EDT Sat Apr 7 2018 High pressure to the east will weaken as another cold front begins to push into the region.
400 AM PDT Sat Apr 7 2018 A low pressure system moving inland along the West Coast will bring more clouds and periods of stronger and gusty west winds in the mountains and deserts through tonight with a few light showers possible near the mountains of San Bernardino and Riverside Counties this afternoon and evening.