Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1221 PM CDT Tue Jul 30 2019 A cool morning to start the day across the area with temps in the low 40s. South winds on the backside of the departing high pressure system will aid in mixing and keep temps up into the 50s for most tonight. The exception will be across the eastern forested areas where high pressure ridge axis may linger with calm winds allowing for a few upper 40s. From Wednesday into the weekend the pattern will be persistent with thermal ridging and instability axis oriented across the highs plains and gradually shifting east. The upper level ridging will cause rather weak and limited bulk shear, 0 to 6km, at 30kts or less, meaning widespread organized severe convection will be limited.
1226 PM EDT Tue Jul 30 2019 Shower and thunderstorm chances return today and Wednesday with a slow moving cold front. There is still widespread cloud cover between a line of thunderstorms that has developed across the ridges, the initial line of showers moving along the I-79 corridor, and a more scattered area of showers currently across north-central Ohio.
Issued by National Weather Service Charleston SC 118 PM EDT Tue Jul 30 2019 High pressure in the region will limit moisture in the forecast area through Wednesday. The high will be more dominate off the Southeast Coast allowing an increasingly moist southerly flow to be directed into the forecast area late this week. Both surface and upper ridging expected to continue extending westward from the western Atlantic. Forecast highs look to be on track with temperatures peaking in the low to mid 90s. There will be weak h5 troughing.
301 PM CDT Tue Jul 30 2019 A substantial ridge will continue to build just to the east of the four corners region over the next several days. Multiple weak impulses will traverse the ridge axis, bringing several chances for showers and storms to the area this week. Precipitation coverage will likely increase after midnight and into early Wednesday morning, as the low level jet ramps up to 30-40 kts and the next upper level disturbance pushes into the region. The next round of precipitation picks up Wednesday evening/night, as the low level jet ramps up yet again.
High pressure in place over the Upper midwest and western Great Lakes will provide a cooler northeast flow to Central Indiana the next several days along with slightly below normal tempertures. The high will continue to be the main weather feature through the work week and into the weekend. High pressure was in place across the upper midwest and western Great Lakes. dew points in the lower 60s were spilling into Central Indiana. Models suggest the high pressure to the NW will continue to build across Central Indiana tonight. Meanwhile aloft, strong high pressure in place across the Western United States will keep any upper level weather disturbances pushed well north of Indiana.
The high will filter into the area through today behind the cold front that made its way through the Ozarks overnight. Mostly clear skies will occur today and through most of tonight with afternoon highs in the 80s and overnight lows in the 60s thanks to a cooler and drier airmass. High pressure will remain in control of the regions weather through the day Wednesday as the upper level ridge begins to slowly retrograde to the west. As this occurs, a short wave will begin to crest the ridge and make its way across the plains towards the Ozarks Wednesday night.
1108 AM EDT Tue Jul 30 2019 A slow-moving cold front will approach today and stall out, finally moving to the east later on Wednesday. Expect maxes in the east to be in the lower 90s, but hold below 80 where the morning showers and lingering clouds keep things cooler. Maxes will run cooler than recent days with 75-85F the range. Cold front slowly approaching from the NW will bring advancing mid/high clouds into the NW mountains by mid morning and across NW half by midday. The convection will be most widespread west of a HGR-IPT-BGM line before diminishing fairly quickly by early evening, while more scattered storms impact the Lower Susq Valley later in the afternoon into the mid evening.
High Broken CU field helped along by low level thermal trough will diurnally dissipate this evening. High pressure will continue to build into the area overnight into Wednesday and linger through Wednesday night.
Temperatures have been significantly affected by this cloud cover and are likely to remain much cooler than expected.
A few patchy areas of lower visibilities may again be possible within the higher terrain of Northwest Arkansas early Wednesday morning. Closer to the center of the high. temperatures in the lower 90s should be common for much of the CWA underneath mostly clear to partly cloudy skies.
320 PM EDT Tue Jul 30 2019 Updated at 310 PM EDT Tue Jul 30 2019 Diffuse sfc boundary is moving south and east across the Ohio Valley this afternoon, with decent low-level moisture pooling and upper trofiness to fuel scattered showers and thunderstorms. Heights will already be on the rise and the center of high pressure will be building east across the Great Lakes, limiting the southward push of cooler and drier air into our area. Updated at 105 PM EDT Tue Jul 30 2019 Decent amount of moisture pooling near a slow-moving cold front will fuel isolated to scattered thunderstorms this afternoon.
204 PM CDT Tue Jul 30 2019 A couple of warm summer days for the rest of today and tomorrow as an upper high over the southern High Plains and central/southern Rockies remains anchored.
147 PM EDT Tue Jul 30 2019 A slow-moving cold front will approach and stall out over western Pennsylvania tonight, finally moving to the east later on Wednesday. Coverage may diminish to nothing across the Lower Susq and isolated elsewhere. Maxes will run cooler than recent days with 75-85F the range. Cold front slowly approaching from the NW will bring numerous afternoon showers and thunderstorms (with restrictions and gusty winds in their vicinity). The convection will be most widespread west of a HGR-IPT-BGM line before diminishing by late evening, while more scattered storms impact the Lower Susq Valley later in the afternoon into the mid evening.
Weak cold front continues to slowly progress south across the state this afternoon. Today Through Wednesday Night As of this morning, upper ridging remains fixed across the western half of the CONUS while upper troughing extends from a closed low north of the Great Lakes southward to the Tennessee Valley. Surface ridging stretches from south- central Canada to the southern Plains while the subtropical ridge axis extends from the Gulf into the Atlantic. A modest cold front to our north will slide south across the area today, but as the influence of upper troughing wanes, expecting this boundary to stall across southern AR by afternoon/evening. Surface ridging in the northern tier will slide east with the ridge axis traversing AR through the day Wednesday.
258 PM CDT Tue Jul 30 2019 Over the greater CONUS, a troughing east and ridging west pattern remained in place. An upper ridge was centered over the southern Plains east of the CO/NM Rockies, while troughing extended southward from low pressure moving across the Hudson Bay. Under this trough, a stream of clouds extended SSW from the eastern Great Lakes to across middle/eastern Tennessee to east of the Mississippi Delta.
In addition, the near surface airmass remains dry with significant vertical mixing expected this afternoon, which will drive dewpoints into the lower 60s (or the upper 50s in a few locations).
Closer to the center of the high. temperatures in the lower 90s should be common for much of the CWA underneath mostly clear to partly cloudy skies.
326 PM CDT Tue Jul 30 2019 A slow-moving cold front will traverse the Mid-South this evening and overnight, bringing drier air into the region. Despite the dry air advecting into the area behind the cold front tonight, clearing skies and moist soil may support fog development across the Mid-South. The subtropical ridge currently over the Four Corners region will shift slightly east through the remainder of the work-week, shifting the flow aloft from a more northerly direction.
Current observations show temperatures in the low 90s over central OK, mid 90's in western OK. Moisture advection has increased dewpoints more than previously thought with dewpoints currently measuring in the low to mid 70's across the southeastern portion of our CWA.
Temperatures tonight, with the increased cloud cover, should stabilize and remain a few degrees warmer than previously thought. Wednesday night: Mid-level ridging shifts a bit further to the east Wednesday night, which should push the best risks for development of elevated convection further to the south and east.
and another over the Atlantic Ocean, leaving a weak trough over our area. Daytime highs should range from the low to mid 80s along the Plateau to upper 80s to near 90 elsewhere.
mid-level ridging across the central US will help to push out any lingering rain showers by late morning. Most of Wednesday remains dry with temperatures rising into the low to upper 80s. Southwest Nebraska and the eastern Panhandle may even see highs approach the low 90s.
With the mid level trough departing, we should see a relative lull in shower activity overnight through dawn on Wednesday. Given the rainfall today, and very moist surface conditions as the cold front slowly stalls over the region, we could potentially see quite a bit of fog late tonight. A warm and moist airmass will continue ahead of the cold front that will remain stalled across eastern Kentucky. We will remain under the influence of upper level trough in the eastern US and ridging will be the story across the western portions of the lower 48.
CAPE is rather limited for this time of year in our west and with the ridge aloft we should not see any severe weather west of a Hysham to Sheridan line.
207 PM CDT Tue Jul 30 2019 156 PM CDT High pressure centered over Minnesota this afternoon will drift eastward into Wisconsin tonight. A large and strong mid- upper ridge centered over the interior West and Plains will be quasi- stationary through the period, putting us under light dry northerly flow on the east side of the ridge.
204 PM MDT Tue Jul 30 2019 19z surface analysis had high over the Midwest with lee trough from central MT into eastern CO.
Overnight, on the nose of the low level jet additional development is expected to focus across eastern Neb, with our eastern zones on the edge of the activity. On Wednesday, a warm front will lift north through KS bringing continued hot conditions to our southern zones with highs topping out in the mid/upper 90s south of the boundary. The hot temps combined with dps will lead to several hours of aftn heat indices of 100 to 105 degrees for locations southwest of a Cambridge, NE to Beloit, KS line. The upper ridge axis begins to break down overnight and the surface boundary is expected to stall near the Neb/KS stateline.
A couple of warm summer days for the rest of today and tomorrow as an upper high over the southern High Plains and central/southern Rockies remains anchored.
843 PM EDT Tue Jul 30 2019 A slow-moving cold front will approach and stall out over western Pennsylvania tonight, finally moving to the east later on Wednesday. Scattered convection still firing early this evening across central Pa along axis of anomalous pwats preceding a slow-moving cold front over the Grt Lks. For overnight, will maintain the highest POPs across the Laurel Highlands and central mountains, where models place the axis of deepest moisture and marginal instability. High humidity and a fair amount of cloud cover will result in another mild night with min temps ranging from the low 60s over the northwest mountains, to around 70F across the Lower Susq Valley. The slow-moving cold front will edge southeast into the region Wednesday.
This activity is associated with an impulse aloft traveling within northeastern flow around the periphery of a large high pres system centered over nrn NM, and a trough over the SE CONUS.
Northwest flow a loft and high pressure at the sfc are the main culprits for the string of quiet, nice days. Under northwesterly upper level flow with ridge centered over southwestern U.
640 PM CDT Tue Jul 30 2019 156 PM CDT High pressure centered over Minnesota this afternoon will drift eastward into Wisconsin tonight. A large and strong mid- upper ridge centered over the interior West and Plains will be quasi- stationary through the period, putting us under light dry northerly flow on the east side of the ridge.
High pressure will maintain pleasant boating conditions over the Gulf waters through the end of the week and into the weekend with light east-southeast winds and slight seas with an onshore sea breeze component developing along the coast each afternoon. Wind and seas will be higher near scattered showers and storms, otherwise no headlines are expected High pressure will maintain pleasant boating conditions over the Gulf waters through the end of the week and into the weekend with light east-southeast winds and slight seas with an onshore sea breeze component developing along the coast each afternoon.
755 PM EDT Tue Jul 30 2019 WV imagery and RAP analysis indicated a mid/upper level low over James Bay and a ridge from the southern Rockies through the Northern Plains resulting cyclonic westerly flow through the northern Great Lakes. At the surface, high pressure centered over the Upper Mississippi Valley was slowly building to the east. Tonight, As high pressure continues to build into the region, expect favorable radiational cooling conditions with PWAT values dropping below 0. This will allow temps to drop into the lower 40s inland with even some upper 30s possible in favored cold spots. Dewpoints will also drop into the lower 40s inland with min RH values around 30 percent. Quiet, dry and slightly above normal warm weather is expected to prevail through the middle part of the week as high pressure continues to dominate our local weather.
930 PM EDT Tue Jul 30 2019 Shower and thunderstorm chances will persist through Wednesday with the encroachment of a cold front. Otherwise, no appreciable change was needed as sct to nmrs showers and storms continue to form with the advance of a cold front out of the Midwest.
No additional changes to the forecast, with morning lows in the low to mid 70s. (modified prev) Favorable boating conditions as a weak ridge axis over the W Atlc/Deep South generates a light to gentle E/SE breeze across the region.
The discrepancy is all because of the location of the high pressure. The clockwise flow around the high is transporting moisture to the area but if the high is further east, we get the precip and if the high center is located further west, it goes to Utah.
This should continue into tomorrow as well as BUFKIT x-sections indicate drying in the boundary layer on Wednesday while the trough aloft weakens and the marine inversion lowers slightly.
745 PM EDT Tue Jul 30 2019 Shower and thunderstorm chances will persist through Wednesday with the encroachment of a cold front. No appreciable change was needed for the eve update as sct to nmrs showers and storms continue to form with the advance of a cold front out of the Midwest.
A large upper level ridge will build from the four corners region northeastward during the short term period, with just some weak amounts of energy riding over the top of it and across the Northern Plains. At the surface, high pressure currently over the eastern part of the CWA and Minnesota will get pushed eastward tonight, with the region becoming situated between it and low pressure to the west. The upper pattern will be defined by weak western and eastern CONUS troughs with ridging in the center with a 4 Corners high over the southern Rockies. This high/ridge will keep us mostly dry initially, but as we get into the late week, low level humidity and increasing temperatures will lead to instability while all the deterministic guidance generate a wave that travels around the 4 Corners high and into the plains.
/issued 232 PM CDT Tue Jul 30 2019/ The center of an upper level ridge will shift slightly to the east over the next few days to a position nearly overhead of the South Plains.
Otherwise, clearing skies, light winds and dewpoints in the lower and mid 70s will support patchy fog across the Midsouth overnight. /issued 326 PM CDT Tue Jul 30 2019/ A slow-moving cold front will traverse the Mid-South this evening and overnight, bringing drier air into the region. Despite the dry air advecting into the area behind the cold front tonight, clearing skies and moist soil may support fog development across the Mid-South. The subtropical ridge currently over the Four Corners region will shift slightly east through the remainder of the work-week, shifting the flow aloft from a more northerly direction.
630 PM CDT Tue Jul 30 2019 High pressure overhead has led to light winds, sunny skies, and dry conditions. Dry air lingers tonight which will allow radiational cooling to drop tonights lows again into the lower 40s and locally into the upper 30s.
Updated at 310 PM EDT Tue Jul 30 2019 Diffuse sfc boundary is moving south and east across the Ohio Valley this afternoon, with decent low-level moisture pooling and upper trofiness to fuel scattered showers and thunderstorms. Heights will already be on the rise and the center of high pressure will be building east across the Great Lakes, limiting the southward push of cooler and drier air into our area.
508 PM EDT Tue Jul 30 2019 Shower and thunderstorm chances will persist through Wednesday with the encroachment of a cold front. No appreciable change was needed for the eve update as sct to nmrs showers and storms continue to form with the advance of a cold front out of the Midwest.
That said, given the position of the upper trough, mid level lapse rates will provide at least some MUCAPE over the next 4-6 hours. Chattanooga Airport, TN 69 89 71 91 / 20 40 20 30 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 67 88 68 88 / 30 40 30 40 Oak Ridge, TN 68 87 69 89 / 30 30 30 40 Tri Cities Airport, TN 65 84 65 87 / 40 60 30 40.
Afternoon temperatures are currently a few degrees cooler than yesterday. The current synoptic setup shows the region situation between the monsoon high pressure centered over the Four Corners region and an upper level trough located just offshore in the eastern Pacific.
Showers and thunderstorms may return Wednesday afternoon across the higher elevations of southwest Idaho, but majority of the moisture remains east of the area.
/issued 326 PM CDT Tue Jul 30 2019/ A slow-moving cold front will traverse the Mid-South this evening and overnight, bringing drier air into the region. Despite the dry air advecting into the area behind the cold front tonight, clearing skies and moist soil may support fog development across the Mid-South. The subtropical ridge currently over the Four Corners region will shift slightly east through the remainder of the work-week, shifting the flow aloft from a more northerly direction.
551 PM MDT Tue Jul 30 2019 19z surface analysis had high over the Midwest with lee trough from central MT into eastern CO.
618 PM CDT Tue Jul 30 2019 A substantial ridge will continue to build just to the east of the four corners region over the next several days. Multiple weak impulses will traverse the ridge axis, bringing several chances for showers and storms to the area this week. Precipitation coverage will likely increase after midnight and into early Wednesday morning, as the low level jet ramps up to 30-40 kts and the next upper level disturbance pushes into the region. The next round of precipitation picks up Wednesday evening/night, as the low level jet ramps up yet again.
A nice stretch of quiet weather for the rest of the week is expected, with high pressure lingering across the region. High Broken CU field helped along by low level thermal trough will diurnally dissipate this evening. High pressure will continue to build into the area overnight into Wednesday and linger through Wednesday night.
Over the greater CONUS, a troughing east and ridging west pattern remained in place. An upper ridge was centered over the southern Plains east of the CO/NM Rockies, while troughing extended southward from low pressure moving across the Hudson Bay. Under this trough, a stream of clouds extended SSW from the eastern Great Lakes to across middle/eastern Tennessee to east of the Mississippi Delta.
929 PM EDT Tue Jul 30 2019 A cold front will slowly move through the area this afternoon through Wednesday bringing showers and thunderstorms.
A nice stretch of quiet weather for the rest of the week is expected, with high pressure lingering across the region. North to northeast winds over Lake Michigan will slowly weaken overnight into Wednesday, as high pressure slowly moves into Wisconsin. High pressure over the region this week into the upcoming weekend will bring light winds and generally quiet weather. A nice stretch of quiet weather for the rest of the week is expected, with high pressure lingering across the region. High Broken CU field helped along by low level thermal trough will diurnally dissipate this evening. High pressure will continue to build into the area overnight into Wednesday and linger through Wednesday night.
/issued 233 PM CDT Tue Jul 30 2019/ Upper ridge over the ridge will continue to cause hot conditions over the next few days with temperatures gradually warming each day.
639 PM CDT Tue Jul 30 2019 High pressure building behind yesterday's cold front has ushered in slightly cooler, drier conditions across the area. Low temperatures in the low 60s, coupled with clear skies and light winds, will favor patchy fog developing overnight. Beitscher/Carney The medium range will continued to be dominated by the high amplitude pattern with an upper level ridge over over the Rockies and western Plains and a longwave trough over the eastern CONUS. The good news is that the area shouldn't see any extreme heat as long as the ridge stays where it is and doesn't build too much further east.
1036 PM EDT Tue Jul 30 2019 A slow-moving cold front will approach and stall out over western Pennsylvania tonight, finally moving to the east later on Wednesday. Widely scattered convection still firing late this evening across central Pa along axis of anomalous pwats preceding a slow-moving cold front over the Grt Lks. For overnight, will maintain the highest POPs across the Laurel Highlands and central mountains, where models place the axis of deepest moisture and marginal instability. High humidity and a fair amount of cloud cover will result in another mild night with min temps ranging from the low 60s over the northwest mountains, to around 70F across the Lower Susq Valley. The slow-moving cold front will edge southeast into the region Wednesday.
The highlight for this forecast packages is heat over the next few days followed by somewhat of a cooldown over the weekend.
trough (northwest flow) and the eastern edge of the Central Plains ridge in a zonal of minimal deep layer moisture and shear.
230 AM MDT Wed Jul 31 2019 An upper level ridge will remain over Montana through the weekend with warmer than normal temperatures. Waves will either overtop or flatten the ridge at times to combine with an unstable airmass to provide chances for thunderstorms. The warm front dissipates this evening and easterly winds will bring the higher dew points back west as a new lee side trough develops over Central Montana.
With the ridge of high pressure centered over the Texas Panhandle the forecast for today and tomorrow will generally be simply hot and dry with afternoon heat index values approaching 107 along and east of the Interstate 35 corridor. The ridge broadens on Thursday with a dry day forecast for everyone. Overnight lows will continue to run warmer than normal as well in the mid to upper 70s each night.
Low and high temperatures during this period will remain about 3 to 5 degrees below normal which for this time of year would be low in the lower to mid 60s and highs in the lower to mid 80s.
Strong upper level high pressure with a was centered over the OK/TX panhandles into southwest Kansas early this morning. This disturbance will ride over the top of the upper high through northern Colorado and Wyoming on Thursday.