Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
553 AM EST Wed Nov 9 2022 VFR conditions hold into the midday period, as dry and stable low level conditions remain entrenched beneath a passing elevated warm front. Summer-like upper level ridge in place along/east of the Mississippi River Valley with Tropical Storm Nicole headed toward Florida. Across southeast Michigan, with the long nights and weaker insolation, tough to scour out the cooler air in the low levels, as 00z DTX showed an 850 MB temp of 8 C, with 925 MB backed flow indicating a temp of 3 C. With the nearly calm winds, the good radiators have even dipped into the lower 30s/around 30 degrees early this morning. Longwave upper level trough over the Rockies today with the moisture plume advancing northeast up through the Plains.
Discussion: Overall, another day of high pressure controlling our weather with clear skies and above normal temperatures. The main focus during the short term will be the low RH values again this afternoon as a very dry airmass remains in place. Highs should range between the low to mid 70s, which is still around 10 degrees above normal. 850mb flow begins to increase tonight out of the southeast as the pressure gradient tightens between Tropical Storm Nicole and an area of high pressure to its north in the Atlantic. This will produce breezy winds across the high terrain of our eastern mountains.
Upper trough is overhead NorCal early this morning with numerous snow showers continuing to bring accumulating snowfall to the northern Sierra.
458 AM CST Wed Nov 9 2022 The main forecast concerns in the short-term portion of the forecast will be the above normal temperatures through Thursday and then the timing of strong cold front Thursday night. The cold front will bring some of the coldest air so far this season, especially over the weekend.
High pressure will be building in over the region for the remainder of the week bringing unseasonably cold temperatures. A weak weather system pushing into the ridge over the weekend will bring increasing clouds, but much of the Inland Northwest will continue to remain dry. Today through Thursday: The Low from earlier this week has dropped over Nevada and is moving East. A ridge will be building along the coast and bringing cold, dry Arctic air into the region. Winds will subside this evening as the area stabilizes under the ridge.
244 AM MST Wed Nov 9 2022 09z surface analysis had cold front from northwest MN to central NE to northeast CO. Water vapour loop had upper low spinning over northwest NV. Today through Thursday, upper low moves through the northern Rockies into the northern Plains tracking across the SD/ND border.
621 AM MST Wed Nov 9 2022 Areas of freezing drizzle persist this morning per web reports, radio traffic, and social media posts. 09z surface analysis had cold front from northwest MN to central NE to northeast CO. Water vapour loop had upper low spinning over northwest NV. Today through Thursday, upper low moves through the northern Rockies into the northern Plains tracking across the SD/ND border.
, associated with a low pressure circulation that is approaching the region.
453 AM CST Wed Nov 9 2022 - Strong cold front moving through the region Thursday.
534 AM CST Wed Nov 9 2022 All systems are go for a big warm-up today with high some 15 degrees warmer than yesterday. Surface winds have already veered to southeasterly and will veer to more southerly this morning as the high clouds thin and move east. A deep progressive upper trof will move across the Plains and into the MS Valley driving a potent cold front through the area late Thursday afternoon and night.
236 AM PST Wed Nov 9 2022 High pressure will remain across the area and result in cold nights, cool days and dry weather through the upcoming weekend. GOES-W WV/IR imagery as of 2 AM shows the deep area of low pressure moving over east into southern ID with western OR sitting in the cool and dry NW quadrant of the low. Expect low temperatures to dip into the upper 20s in the lowlands and near freezing along the coast.
Quiet and warmer, albeit still cold, conditions are expected to close out the week. To start the period, an upper level closed low is centered over the Great Basin, shifting slowly eastward. An area of stronger winds aloft is rotating through the base of this trough, which will support large scale ascent across Southwest through North-central Montana through the day today. As the upper trough shifts eastward, a weak H700 low will shift from eastern Oregon to Idaho this morning before moving northeastward into Central Montana today, ultimately shifting away to the east and weakening tonight.
A warm front and more isentropic forcing is expected to lift into the west this afternoon though and be the focus for additional showers and some thunderstorms. With continued WAA, it's expected to be a warmer day, with daytime highs climbing into the 50s across the region. Low pressure is expected to move through Upper Michigan Thursday night. Ahead of this low, precipitable water anomalies remain positive. Surface temperatures will remain above normal for tonight and Thursday before cooler temperatures return Thursday night and then stick around.
Cooler air the second half of the week, with some warming over the weekend.
425 AM MST Wed Nov 9 2022 09z surface analysis had cold front from northwest MN to central NE to northeast CO. Water vapour loop had upper low spinning over northwest NV. Today through Thursday, upper low moves through the northern Rockies into the northern Plains tracking across the SD/ND border.
451 AM CST Wed Nov 9 2022 Today through tonight: Strong subsidence between the persistent ridge axis and outer envelope of TC Nicole will result in significantly drier conditions over the forecast area in the near term.
After Nicole makes landfall along the Atlantic coastline of Florida tonight into early Thursday morning, it will begin to lift north-northwestward as it's picked up by an incoming trough.
Upper level trough still on track to move across the region later today and tonight. It will be much cooler on Thursday as the trough ejects into the northern Plains by Thursday afternoon. Highs will reach the 40s for the plains and remain below freezing over most of the higher elevations. Strong westerly flow aloft will lead to some breezy conditions over the plains, and enough moisture will remain trapped in the high country for light orographic snow showers to continue, especially for the mountains north of I-70.
High pressure both aloft and at the surface remain in control of the weather across the region today. Slightly cooler conditions, compared to the past few days, will also be observed across the forecast area today. Highs today will range from the lower 70s across East Mississippi to the middle 80s west of the Mississippi River. /19/ Today through tonight: Strong subsidence between the persistent ridge axis and outer envelope of TC Nicole will result in significantly drier conditions over the forecast area in the near term.
1012 AM CST Wed Nov 9 2022 Warmer and dry weather pattern will continue today as winds have become southerly this morning. We've one more day of above normal temperatures in store on Thursday with abundant sunshine and a dry atmosphere in place (Thursday Night through next Wednesday) A strong cold front will sweep across Middle Tennessee Thursday night. The cold front will interact with the remnants of Nicole to product potentially heavy rain across the Cumberland Plateau.
A similar day is expected tomorrow with highs pushing 80 again amidst persistent southerly flow ahead of an approaching cold front.
Upgraded the Lower Clark Fork region of western Montana to a Winter Storm Warning. Snow is expanding in coverage ahead of a low pressure system approaching the region. There is good model agreement that the low pressure system will move off to the east during this evening and snow will decrease. , associated with a low pressure circulation that is approaching the region.
940 AM PST Wed Nov 9 2022 High pressure will remain across the area and result in cold nights, cool days and dry weather through the upcoming weekend. GOES-W WV/IR imagery as of 2 AM shows the deep area of low pressure moving over east into southern ID with western OR sitting in the cool and dry NW quadrant of the low. Expect low temperatures to dip into the upper 20s in the lowlands and near freezing along the coast.
1205 PM CST Wed Nov 9 2022 Warmer and dry weather pattern will continue today as winds have become southerly this morning. We've one more day of above normal temperatures in store on Thursday with abundant sunshine and a dry atmosphere in place (Thursday Night through next Wednesday) A strong cold front will sweep across Middle Tennessee Thursday night. The cold front will interact with the remnants of Nicole to product potentially heavy rain across the Cumberland Plateau.
307 PM EST Wed Nov 9 2022 Current surface analysis (19z) reveals broad high pressure expanding from the northeastern U. Skies will stay mostly clear into the overnight hours, and with dry air and light winds in place, expect another night of temperatures dropping into the 40s, with the sheltered valleys and the typically cooler spots hitting the 30s. Slightly cooler 900-800mb temperatures combined with increasing clouds to slightly inhibit solar insolation will lead to high temps being a tad cooler Thursday, as highs top out in the low 70s for most spots. An upper trough will help drive Nicole up the Appalachians, though tropical moisture on the western periphery of the system looks to be drawn into eastern and central KY.
High pressure will be building in over the region for the remainder of the week bringing unseasonably cold temperatures. A weak weather system pushing into the ridge over the weekend will bring increasing clouds, but much of the Inland Northwest will continue to remain dry. High pressure building into the region from the west will be present for the next few days, although this doesn't mean a warming trend for us in the Inland Northwest. Daytime high temperatures will be in the low to mid 30Fs while overnight lows dip into the teens and some single digits. /Dewey 18Z TAFS: Low pressure pulls away and high pressure builds in.
147 PM EST Wed Nov 9 2022 Dry conditions will continue through Thursday as high pressure remains in control.
By the mid afternoon, the cold front will begin to push into the northwest portions of the area. Current guidance depicts a high shear environment in the vicinity of strong forcing along the cold front. The progressive nature of the system will limit rainfall amounts across the area, with the highest amounts (0. 5 inch) along and west of the Highway 65 corridor.
Deep layer ridging continues to extend southwestward into our forecast area. High temperatures look on track to only range from around 70 degrees over our northern zones to the lower to mid 70s elsewhere. A much drier airmass with associated surface dewpoints in the mid 30s to mid 40s will result in lower relative humidity values in the lower 20-lower 30 percent range across the forecast area this afternoon.
While some coastal flooding is expected on both the oceanside and gulfside/bayside, the highest values are expected along the Gulfside of the Lower Keys. As Nicole pivots across Florida and then off to the northwest as it is picked up by the forward edge of an incoming longwave trough.
219 PM CST Wed Nov 9 2022 Soundings very supportive of freezing drizzle across the region this afternoon, and we continue to see that in areas, especially along and west of the James River where temps are the coldest. Again, still some differences in just how quickly the storm exits on Thursday, but trending for things to rapidly improve by afternoon, so we may end up being on some of the lower end of the forecast totals for snow/ice. Any blowing snow impacts still look to affect mainly north central SD, where snow amounts continue to look the highest. Overall, not the highest confidence forecast due to the complexity with differing precip types, and toughness in determining just how long precip lingers into the day Thursday.
The upper level low has moved northeast, and wrap around precipitation is still falling in much of the region. With temperatures right around freezing in most of the valleys, we are seeing most of the precipitation fall as light snow.
Through the remainder of this afternoon, chances look to slowly lift N as warm front becomes increasingly dominant. Low pressure is expected to move through Upper Michigan Thursday night. Ahead of this low, precipitable water anomalies remain positive. Surface temperatures will remain above normal for tonight and Thursday before cooler temperatures return Thursday night and then stick around.
An upper ridge axis anchored over the western/central Gulf states, coupled with a large dome of high pressure at the sfc layered from the NE Atlantic Coast SW into the SE region, is translating into mostly sunny skies across most of the central TN Valley.
Moderate to heavy snow continues in association within a TROWAL (TRough Of Warm Air Aloft) over west-central Montana this afternoon on the north and northeast side of a slow-moving upper level closed low, with snow rates within this area up to 3 inches per hour, resulting in dangerous near-whiteout conditions. The TROWAL weakens this evening and the upper low moves slowly east, resulting in slowly improving conditions from west to east and from north to south, with north- and west- facing terrain areas the last to improve late tonight or Thursday morning.
- A strong cold front pushes through on Thursday bringing a chance for showers and storms.
1024 AM MST Wed Nov 9 2022 Areas of freezing drizzle persist this morning per web reports, radio traffic, and social media posts. 09z surface analysis had cold front from northwest MN to central NE to northeast CO. Water vapour loop had upper low spinning over northwest NV. Today through Thursday, upper low moves through the northern Rockies into the northern Plains tracking across the SD/ND border.
1110 AM CST Wed Nov 9 2022 The main forecast concerns in the short-term portion of the forecast will be the above normal temperatures through Thursday and then the timing of strong cold front Thursday night. The cold front will bring some of the coldest air so far this season, especially over the weekend.
A weather system and associated cold front will result in gusty winds into this evening along with a few showers. Cooler temperatures and dry conditions return starting Thursday, with some modest warming this weekend. Latest WV/IR satellite imagery shows a closed upper low centered over Idaho with a trough axis extending southward into southern Nevada and northwest Arizona. At the surface, a cold front is currently located across NW Pinal County into far west Pima County. Given how far south we are from the main system and with limited moisture, the surface cold front only has a broken line of showers along it at this time. Cooler and drier air will settle in areawide Thursday with highs about 10 degrees below for this time of year.
(This afternoon through Thursday) At this hour, it's over 10 to 15 degrees cooler across the area than this time yesterday, and humidity is significantly lower resulting in a pleasant early afternoon. This is due to east-northeasterly flow associated with the ridge centered over the Northeast and the resultant wedge of cooler air sinking into the area from Georgia.
230 PM CST Wed Nov 9 2022 Tonight and Thursday: High pressure both aloft and at the surface remain in control of the weather across the region through Thursday. With cirrus clouds lifting northwest across the forecast area, lows tonight will be cooler as they range from the upper 40s to lower 50s.
1146 AM CST Wed Nov 9 2022 - Strong cold front moving through the region Thursday.
(This afternoon through Thursday Night) High pressure has begun to drift eastward, with winds becoming southerly once again. Temps will remain about the same overnight and into tomorrow, with lows in the 40s and our high tomorrow in the low to mid 70s.
Issued by National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 225 PM EST Wed Nov 9 2022 High pressure brings dry weather through Thursday.
The deep upper low that was present over the region earlier this week continues to move south and east today, becoming replaced by a ridge of high pressure currently centered along the N BC border into the Pacific. Near the surface, remnants of a backdoor cold front linger along the WA & OR Coast into N CA, with chilly high pressure influence to its east across the PNW as a ~1030mb high remains centered over Western Canada. Temperatures will remain below normal today in the low to mid 40s under plenty of sunshine.
1121 AM CST Wed Nov 9 2022 High pressure both aloft and at the surface remain in control of the weather across the region today. Slightly cooler conditions, compared to the past few days, will also be observed across the forecast area today. Highs today will range from the lower 70s across East Mississippi to the middle 80s west of the Mississippi River. /19/ Today through tonight: Strong subsidence between the persistent ridge axis and outer envelope of TC Nicole will result in significantly drier conditions over the forecast area in the near term.
(Tomorrow through Wednesday) Gusty south winds and much above normal temperatures will continue Thursday ahead of an approaching upper low and cold front. Much cooler air and gusty northwest winds will move in behind the front Thursday evening and overnight. Cooler weather will continue through the weekend and beyond with an extended stretch of below normal temperatures.
Upper trough axis has finally moved east of California and into Nevada/Utah. Ensembles show ridging building in behind the trough through the rest of the work week. Cold air filtering behind the trough passage will make for some cool daytime temperatures and frosty mornings across much of interior NorCal.
511 PM CST Wed Nov 9 2022 Tonight and Thursday: High pressure both aloft and at the surface remain in control of the weather across the region through Thursday. With cirrus clouds lifting northwest across the forecast area, lows tonight will be cooler as they range from the upper 40s to lower 50s.
For those in Northwest Montana,including the Flathead valley and locations along the Highway 2 corridor and points north: you'll continue to miss out on this current storm and remain mostly snowfall free. While the main low pressure system drifts eastward out of the region tomorrow, lingering low level moisture will likely keep skies mostly cloudy across much of the region. Northerly flow aloft will be supportive of some light snowfall out of this low cloud deck, particularly across northwest Montana into the Idaho Panhandle.
626 PM CST Wed Nov 9 2022 (This afternoon through Thursday) At this hour, it's over 10 to 15 degrees cooler across the area than this time yesterday, and humidity is significantly lower resulting in a pleasant early afternoon. This is due to east-northeasterly flow associated with the ridge centered over the Northeast and the resultant wedge of cooler air sinking into the area from Georgia.
507 PM EST Wed Nov 9 2022 Dry conditions will continue through Thursday as high pressure remains in control.
526 PM CST Wed Nov 9 2022 (This afternoon through Thursday Night) High pressure has begun to drift eastward, with winds becoming southerly once again. Temps will remain about the same overnight and into tomorrow, with lows in the 40s and our high tomorrow in the low to mid 70s.
611 PM EST Wed Nov 9 2022 Dry conditions will continue through Thursday as high pressure remains in control.
534 PM CST Wed Nov 9 2022 Soundings very supportive of freezing drizzle across the region this afternoon, and we continue to see that in areas, especially along and west of the James River where temps are the coldest. Again, still some differences in just how quickly the storm exits on Thursday, but trending for things to rapidly improve by afternoon, so we may end up being on some of the lower end of the forecast totals for snow/ice. Any blowing snow impacts still look to affect mainly north central SD, where snow amounts continue to look the highest. Overall, not the highest confidence forecast due to the complexity with differing precip types, and toughness in determining just how long precip lingers into the day Thursday.
* Strong cold front moving through tomorrow, with showers and thunderstorms near the front.
636 PM EST Wed Nov 9 2022 High pressure will allow for dry conditions tonight through Thursday.
Soundings very supportive of freezing drizzle across the region this afternoon, and we continue to see that in areas, especially along and west of the James River where temps are the coldest. Again, still some differences in just how quickly the storm exits on Thursday, but trending for things to rapidly improve by afternoon, so we may end up being on some of the lower end of the forecast totals for snow/ice. Any blowing snow impacts still look to affect mainly north central SD, where snow amounts continue to look the highest. Overall, not the highest confidence forecast due to the complexity with differing precip types, and toughness in determining just how long precip lingers into the day Thursday.
Current surface analysis (19z) reveals broad high pressure expanding from the northeastern U. Skies will stay mostly clear into the overnight hours, and with dry air and light winds in place, expect another night of temperatures dropping into the 40s, with the sheltered valleys and the typically cooler spots hitting the 30s. Slightly cooler 900-800mb temperatures combined with increasing clouds to slightly inhibit solar insolation will lead to high temps being a tad cooler Thursday, as highs top out in the low 70s for most spots. An upper trough will help drive Nicole up the Appalachians, though tropical moisture on the western periphery of the system looks to be drawn into eastern and central KY.
542 PM CST Wed Nov 9 2022 (Tonight) Unseasonably warm/tranquil conditions prevail across the TN Valley this early Wed afternoon, as high pressure at the sfc remains in place from the NE Atlantic SW into the central Gulf States. An upper ridge axis also remains in place over much of the SE states.
Inside slider trough may bring light snow showers to the Sierra Nevada later this weekend. After a couple of wet days across the San Joaquin Valley, high pressure aloft is settling in, leading to a stable weather pattern.
1110 PM CST Wed Nov 9 2022 Hurricane Nicole is approaching the FL peninsula this evening as a deep trough inches eastward across the Rockies. Meanwhile, broad southwesterly flow aloft downstream of this trough will cause Nicole to turn to the north and weaken as it traverses GA and the Carolinas. A strong cold front will move across the Mid-South on Friday, ushering in much colder air.
The main story for the short-term, however, will be the cold front that is forecast to move into the area late tonight. A large upper low is expected to eject north and east out of the north central Rockies today, sending a strong cold front south into the southern plains. The main shower/storm activity looks to initially remain confined along the front in the Northern Edwards Plateau before spreading north and east into the Concho Valley, Heartland, and NW Hill Country after 09Z tomorrow as lift increases ahead of the approaching upper trough. Lows across the area Friday morning will range from the low 40s in the Big Country where cold air advection will begin sooner with the passage of the front to the low and mid 50s along the 1-10 corridor, where the front will likely be located near daybreak.
A weak ridge of high pressure will follow that will return dry weather to our region Thursday and Friday.
(The rest of tonight) Moist, southerly low level flow will continue across the area tonight ahead of the approaching cold front that is currently located from southeastern Colorado through northeastern Nebraska.