Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
454 AM CST Thu Dec 21 2017 Yet another difficult terminal forecast morning with widespread dense fog noted at most of our terminal locations with the exception being the TYR terminal where enough wind is present to keep the lower atmosphere mixed. Pressure gradient today once the low level inversion is broken should yield S to SSE winds near 10kts with higher gusts likely at the TYR/GGG/TXK and SHV terminals before decoupling takes place this evening into the overnight hours. Fog should clear out by mid morning, yielding mostly sunny skies and unseasonably warm temps in the low to mid 70s. Flow aloft will become more swly today as upper low continues to push sewd across the Rockies. Strong WAA/moisture advection will commence today ahead of the trof, and a developing boundary will set up across the nrn half of our region.
629 AM CST Thu Dec 21 2017 Updated forecast to account for cooler temps in areas of the north where clearing has occurred. skies will be clearing from the northwest as cold high pressure fills into the area. But temps will hold steady as the cold front pushes through the area on Friday. Upper level ridge extended from off the West Coast to AK. Ridge will continue to build north. An upper level trough over northern Hudson Bay will move to the southwest Hudson Bay. Long wave ridge over the eastern Pacific broadens farther west while an upper level trough centered over south central Canada will shift into southeastern Canada by next Thu. A short wave break through base of west coast ridge on Sun.
814 AM EST Thu Dec 21 2017 Dry weather is expected until low pressure returns precipitation chances to the region tonight through part of the weekend. Low pressure is progged to track from the Plains to the Upper Midwest/Western Great Lakes area tonight and Friday. The low's associated warm front is expected to move N across the area tonight and early Friday, returning rain chances to the area. There is a chance of a brief period of freezing rain at the onset tonight mainly toward Forest and Jefferson counties, though with sufficient warm advection think temperatures should be above freezing with a non-diurnal temperature trend before most precip starts.
421 AM MST Thu Dec 21 2017 Latest water vapor imagery shows an upper low across the Great Basin, with southwesterly flow aloft across the CWA. Surface obs show high pressure across eastern Montana quickly pushing into the Dakotas. The upper low today will push into the Four Corners region while the upper trough axis crosses the CWA. This should be the focus of the highest snowfall totals across the area, which will reach the the 2 to 4 inch range.
536 AM CST Thu Dec 21 2017 Current GOES water vapor showing well developed trough of low pressure moving across the Dakotas into MN. Meanwhile, a closed low was pushing toward the central Rockies. The f-gen band of light snow slowly sinks south/weakens later this afternoon into this evening while portions of far southwest WI/northeast IA moisten up in the lowest 2-4kft with no cloud ice. This could shake out some light drizzle/freezing drizzle for areas generally south of a line from Richland Center WI to Waukon and New Hampton IA late this afternoon into this evening which could impact the commute.
Fog should clear out by mid morning, yielding mostly sunny skies and unseasonably warm temps in the low to mid 70s. Flow aloft will become more swly today as upper low continues to push sewd across the Rockies. Strong WAA/moisture advection will commence today ahead of the trof, and a developing boundary will set up across the nrn half of our region.
A cold front will cross the region tonight with the wind shifting into the northwest and MVFR ceilings developing during the night.
Hi-res models indicate this band is most likely to form along and south of the highway 29 corridor, however exact placement will be difficult to determine until the band itself has setup.
Much cooler over the region this morning in the wake of yesterdays frontal passage. Temperatures generally running around 15 degrees lower and currently in the upper 40s to lower 50s with the exception of the warmer immediate coast. Any significant moisture return will remain primarily confined to the low levels, but sufficient enough to carry some low end afternoon pops for showers over portions of the area, expanding area-wide tonight and Friday. Strong cold front continues progged to sweep across the forecast area Friday night.
523 AM EST Thu Dec 21 2017 Dry weather is expected until low pressure returns precipitation chances to the region tonight through part of the weekend. Low pressure is progged to track from the Plains to the Upper Midwest/Western Great Lakes area tonight and Friday. The low's associated warm front is expected to move N across the area tonight and early Friday, returning rain chances to the area. There is a chance of a brief period of freezing rain at the onset tonight mainly toward Forest and Jefferson counties, though with sufficient warm advection think temperatures should be above freezing with a non-diurnal temperature trend before most precip starts.
High pressure will remain over the Florida Keys this afternoon into tonight, as a weak cold front over Central Florida moves southward and into the Lake Okeechobee region by this evening before dissipating over South Florida tonight.
Dry and cold today and tonight under short wave ridge in northerly flow aloft. Farther north is a short wave trough that will increase clouds in northern areas Friday leading to a chance of light snow late there in the day.
Otherwise, brief ridge of high pressure aloft to bring mainly dry conditions and light winds today, however high temperatures will average between 5 to 10 degrees below normal, cold compare to a week ago. Previous Discussion: High pressure will be over Eastern Montana this morning. The high will quickly move to the southeast this afternoon. Skies will become cloudy this afternoon ahead of a cold front that will move through the forecast area tonight. Cold Canadian high pressure builds into the forecast area on Friday but clouds will linger over the area as atmosphere remains moist with upper trough over the region.
Consensus with this next strong cold front looks to be in better agreement with the 00Z runs. as this high moves off quickly to the east. along with more mid/high clouds and perhaps cooler temps. 41 Warm front moving into the coastal areas this morning and expect that patchy fog will become more common through the morning hours with sea fog becoming more widespread this afternoon.
/issued 454 AM CST Thu Dec 21 2017/ Yet another difficult terminal forecast morning with widespread dense fog noted at most of our terminal locations with the exception being the TYR terminal where enough wind is present to keep the lower atmosphere mixed. Pressure gradient today once the low level inversion is broken should yield S to SSE winds near 10kts with higher gusts likely at the TYR/GGG/TXK and SHV terminals before decoupling takes place this evening into the overnight hours. Fog should clear out by mid morning, yielding mostly sunny skies and unseasonably warm temps in the low to mid 70s. Flow aloft will become more swly today as upper low continues to push sewd across the Rockies. Strong WAA/moisture advection will commence today ahead of the trof, and a developing boundary will set up across the nrn half of our region.
A cold front will move through the area today, with gusty winds at times and cooler temperatures by this afternoon.
This will be the norm as we move into the end of the week and the weekend as high pressure settles over the area providing for a stable atmosphere. Forecast high temperatures will be a challenge as this depends on how thick the low clouds are but confidence is high that highs in the valleys will not be as high as model forecast. The mountains however should turn warmer and drier.
A strong cold front is east of the state, but the cold air mass is still moving in.
339 AM MST Thu Dec 21 2017 Latest water vapor imagery shows an upper low across the Great Basin, with southwestly flow aloft across the CWA. Surface obs show high pressure across eastern Montana quickly pushing into the Dakotas. The upper low today will push into the Four Corners region while the upper trough axis crosses the CWA. This should be the focus of the highest snowfall totals across the area, which will reach the the 2 to 4 inch range.
Cloud cover and fog will be slow to lift this morning, but by the afternoon expecting at least some breaks in the clouds which will help to warm temperatures into the low to mid 60s.
Winds will diminish this evening ahead of a cold front expected near the end of this TAF period. /issued 349 AM CST Thu Dec 21 2017/ Upper low over the Great Basin this morning will swing east and open to a trough Friday as it crosses the Rockies.
In the low levels of the atmosphere, an area of high pressure will be located near the northern Bahamas this afternoon. In the mid levels of the atmosphere, an anticyclone will be centered over the Florida Straits today. In the upper levels of the atmosphere, a ridge of high pressure will be located over the eastern Gulf of Mexico this afternoon.
with some slight clearing possible in the early afternoon as drier air moves in at the low levels. Chattanooga Airport, TN 59 49 60 54 / 10 10 60 50 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 59 47 59 53 / 10 10 50 60 Oak Ridge, TN 58 46 58 53 / 10 10 60 70 Tri Cities Airport, TN 58 38 59 48 / 10 0 40 60.
The GFS is the furthest north, placing the band of light precipitation closer to the highway 14 corridor, but the general consensus places the band along the axis of a line from near Gregory SD to Dell Rapids to Windom where 1 to 3 inches of snow will be possible. With the dendritic layer at times lacking within the cloud deck, some spotty light freezing drizzle or freezing rain could be possible at times, mainly in portions of northwest Iowa. Will need to keep an eye on the freezing drizzle potential and reevaluate headlines if it looks like a greater concern than current thinking. Another cold front arrives Friday evening, bringing another shot of colder air from Canada.
A band of clouds is approaching the I-4 corridor associated with a decaying cold front. with broad upper level ridging extending from western Cuba northward over the Florida peninsula. This upper trough moves eastward through the day which will allow for the upper ridge to further build over the southeast U.
High pressure keeps things dry and seasonable through the weekend. As expected we are off to a cooler start compared to yesterday with many locations in the 30s to lower 40s at this hour. That will be followed by an even colder night tonight as dry air, clear skies, and calm winds will lead to widespread freezing to near-freezing temperature. Slightly warmer readings can be expected close to Monterey Bay so went with a frost advisory for that area. A weak ridge of high pressure will nudge into our region over the weekend leading to warmer conditions both at the day and at night.
DHT will also pick up gusts but be slower to bring in the low clouds.
An upper level ridge offshore will bring dry northerly flow aloft to the area today.
Seeing some areas of dense fog around Matagorda Bay with near 70 dw pts moving across the cooler waters. Adjusted max temps slightly, but still expect temps to reach the lower to mid 70s areawide. Consensus with this next strong cold front looks to be in better agreement with the 00Z runs. as this high moves off quickly to the east. along with more mid/high clouds and perhaps cooler temps. 41 Warm front moving into the coastal areas this morning and expect that patchy fog will become more common through the morning hours with sea fog becoming more widespread this afternoon.
A cold front will continue to move across northern Arizona this morning. High temperatures Today look to be in the low 30s in the mountains to around 50 in the lower elevations. The fast moving cold front continues across the area this morning bringing some snow showers across much of the high country, although accumulations are expected to be light. Temperatures will remain cold today with high temperatures struggling to get to freezing across the high country, and lower elevations only reaching into the 50s. Overnight lows Thursday night into Friday will likely be the coldest so far of the season with many high elevations locations dropping into the low teens and single digits.
510 AM CST Thu Dec 21 2017 A warm front will continue to lift northeast through central Missouri early this morning. A sharp cold front will then move through the Ozarks this evening. Areas of west-central Missouri should fall into the lower and middle 30s while areas of south-central Missouri only fall into the middle to upper 40s.
Low-level moisture return ahead of an approaching cold front should result in low cloud development (with MVFR ceilings) at our southern terminals by or after 06Z. Carrying a wind shift at KABI at 10Z, with expected passage of a cold front. An upper trough will move from the Great Basin to the Four Corners region today, and into New Mexico tonight. Ahead of the main upper trough, a weaker disturbance embedded in southwest flow aloft will move into our area tonight. A cold front will push south across the Big Country area tonight, and by 6 AM Friday should be just south of a Brownwood to Sterling City line.
340 AM MST Thu Dec 21 2017 Latest water vapor imagery shows an upper low across the Great Basin, with southwesterly flow aloft across the CWA. Surface obs show high pressure across eastern Montana quickly pushing into the Dakotas. The upper low today will push into the Four Corners region while the upper trough axis crosses the CWA. This should be the focus of the highest snowfall totals across the area, which will reach the the 2 to 4 inch range.
As the low tracks eastward to near Kansas City by early this evening, it will spread low clouds into central Illinois as the day progresses. As the low tracks into central Illinois, the boundary layer will moisten significantly tonight. With low temperatures dropping into the lower 30s, there is a potential for some freezing drizzle across the far NW KILX CWA around Galesburg toward dawn. Further southeast, temperatures will be much warmer. The low will track into Indiana by Friday morning, pulling a cold front southward toward the Ohio River.
Drizzle is expected late tonight into Friday with some freezing drizzle possible north of the toll road.
/Issued 310 AM EST Thu Dec 21 2017/ Wedge of high pressure has begun to build down the from the east. However, the low clouds will persist through tonight. The wedge may begin to retreat a bit on Friday as cold front approaches the Mississippi River valley. However, models typically diminish the wedge too fast - so not expecting a lot of improvement with the low clouds for Friday.
The low shower chance will continue for nrn/central sections with light rainfall amounts with any showers into mid to late afternoon. Highs will reach the upper 70s to near 80 nrn zones to the lower 80s south.
532 AM CST Thu Dec 21 2017 Water vapor imagery this morning was showing a positive longwave trof extending from central Canada to the southwestern CONUS, with an embedded circulation centered over the Great Basin. Attendant warm front extended from northwest IA into southern MO. Main obstacle to overcome is timing liquid/freezing/frozen precip today. Timing push of cold air advection in to the northern CWA suggests freezing drizzle will be the initial threat this morning through mid afternoon before change over to all light snow when the column goes below zero. Given the potential for prolonged freezing drizzle. However, expect the cold air advection to shove the demarcation of drizzle/freezing drizzle to roughly the I-80 corridor by early afternoon, then expand a bit more south.
Models do clear at least the western cwa overnight as weak high pressure moves in. May see some high clouds begin to work in ahead of the incoming cold front however. There may well be just enough to squeeze out a few snow showers over far western MN but with the main low pressure center situated well into Manitoba, there will be little with which the passing cold front can work.
High pressure will bring dry weather, warming daytime temperatures, and chilly nighttime temperatures the next few days.
520 AM CST Thu Dec 21 2017 Freezing drizzle and light snow will be the main impact for today. A strong cold front will sweep through the area, dropping temperatures below freezing, resulting in freezing drizzle. Temperatures are currently above freezing across the entire area. Sub-freezing temperatures are expected to move into northwestern edges of the forecast area by 6-7AM, steadily progressing southeast across the area through the morning and early afternoon. Highs on Friday in the low to mid 30s should be sufficient to melt any snow or ice accumulations from today.
skies will be clearing from the northwest as cold high pressure fills into the area. But temps will hold steady as the cold front pushes through the area on Friday. Upper level ridge extended from off the West Coast to AK. Ridge will continue to build north. An upper level trough over northern Hudson Bay will move to the southwest Hudson Bay. Long wave ridge over the eastern Pacific broadens farther west while an upper level trough centered over south central Canada will shift into southeastern Canada by next Thu. A short wave break through base of west coast ridge on Sun.
Low level moisture/stratus is streaming northward ahead of the low. Mostly a stratus event, although some fog is starting to form just east of the low. Lows in the teens are expected Friday morning with high pressure in control and a drier boundary layer. A large trof will swing southward with cold air spilling southward across the Great Plains.
1031 AM EST Thu Dec 21 2017 A low pressure system will develop over Missouri today and track towards northern Ohio overnight.
Many spots around the region will see high temperatures only a few degrees warmer than their lows.
The lowest temperature that I saw was 27 degrees at Tallahassee, Valdosta, Cross City and the Fort Rucker Heliport. Dry conditions will continue but high temperatures will warm as the high shifts east and flow at the surface transitions to the west southwest.
A ridge of high pressure will extend through the Northland today with the high moving south tonight into Friday. This high will provide the region with mostly clear skies through Friday.
Currently, a large upper level low/trough was centered just off the western Oregon coast. The southwestern 1/3 of the state has had cirrus cloud cover in advance of the Wyoming low pressure system. Thermal profiles suggest a mix of rain and snow, possibly mixed with some sleet or freezing rain. The greatest synoptic forcing remains south of ND, with threats of freezing rain and heavy snow in eastern Wyoming and South Dakota. Cooler today, with highs ranging from the mid and upper 20s northwest through the James Valley. to the lower and middle 30s southwest. On Friday as the cutoff low traverses the central plains towards Iowa, southwestern and south central counties along the South Dakota border will have chances of light snow, possibly mixed with rain or freezing drizzle.
633 AM CDT Thu Mar 15 2018 A cold front was located early this morning across far northern Missouri and central Illinois. GFS/NAM are both showing a upper low moving into the Central Plains tonight from the rockies. Large scale ascent will increase ahead of this low at the same time low level moisture transport will increase from the Gulf. There may be a brief period of freezing rain or sleet across parts of northeast MO and west central IL early Friday morning due to evaporative cooling with surface temperatures near the freezing mark. Showers will continue Friday afternoon and evening as the low pressure system moves eastward into west central MO by Friday evening.
They should dissipate this afternoon as mid level ridging and drier air pushes into the region.
A high pressure ridge was nosing into the peninsula from the Gulf of Mexico. After a chilly start in the upper 30s to lower 40s, full sunshine will allow max temps to reach the lower 70s, except upper 60s right along the Volusia coast. A high pressure ridge was nosing into the peninsula, but the gradient had not yet relaxed over the coastal waters. All computer model guidance continues to elongate the ridge eastward, so gradient winds will drop below 10 knots by afternoon.
An overall broad trough will be the dominant feature over the Northern Rockies for the next several days. A low pressure system dropping down into northern California will temporarily cause the upper level flow to become southwesterly on Friday.
641 AM CDT Thu Mar 15 2018 The low-level jet will continue to produce some wind shear/chop through 13 or 14 UTC this morning. The wind will only gradually relax this evening, while coming around to the west overnight as a trough passes across the area. These winds will not be on the increase until this afternoon when the upper level short wave trough approaches the region. We will continue to see strong winds on Friday though they are not anticipated to be as strong as today with upper level short wave ridging overhead. Strong mid level winds will still be rotating around the back side of the departing short waves trough.
Scattered showers today as area remains under a broad upper low. Focus of shower development will be over the mountains with isolated activity in the lower basins/valleys. The main center of the cold upper level trough will stay off the northwest coast through tonight, while a portion of the trough swings inland today, generating scattered snow showers over the mountains and isolated rain showers in the valleys below 4000 feet. As this trough exits, there will be a brief break in the showers this evening, but scattered showers will spread across the area again late tonight through Friday as the main trough begins to push inland. Higher elevations will see from 1 to 3 inches, with 4 to 6 inches possible on the highest peaks by Friday evening.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 65 43 67 54 / 0 0 20 80 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 63 43 60 47 / 0 0 10 80 Oak Ridge, TN 63 41 59 46 / 0 10 20 80 Tri Cities Airport, TN 60 38 50 41 / 0 10 10 70 TN.
This low level WAA and warmer 850hPa temps near 10C will help drive temperatures into the lower to mid 70s south of the MO River and into the lower 60s across northern MO. The low will quickly become vertically stacked slowing down the eastward movement as it intensifies Friday. A true surface warm front will develop Friday afternoon over eastern KS then push through Central Missouri. Overrunning of this warm frontal boundary will lead to consistent rainfall over northern Missouri where up to 0.
Dry advection and subsidence within the influence of an upper level ridge will keep flight operations in a vfr mode today.
1017 AM EDT Thu Mar 15 2018 Periodic snow showers and cold temperatures are expected the rest of the week under upper level low pressure. No significant accumulation is expected outside of the ridges and north of I-80 where a couple inches looks possible through Friday until snow showers diminish with building high pressure.
High pressure settles in across N cnl Fl providing sunny skies with afternoon temps in the upper 60s to near 70 inland and mid 60s along the coast.
Snow is still the most likely precipitation type but some potential for a little freezing rain on the edges of the system.
Therefore, snow will be possible over some of the highest peaks. For the rest of the day - a weak surface boundary will move through region as an upper low approaches from the north. Given the low freezing levels small hail will be the biggest impacts. Showers and instability will continue on Friday as the upper low to the north moves southward along the CA Coast.
1002 AM EDT Thu Mar 15 2018 Areas of light snow will wane in coverage today and become confined mainly the higher elevations by tonight into Friday.