Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
No significant adjustments were made to temperatures; highs in the low-mid 90s still look likely inland this afternoon, and highs will remain in the upper 80s along the coast.
1136 AM MDT SUN JUL 17 2016 The trough of low pressure deepening over the west coast has forced high pressure to recenter over southeast New Mexico during the night.
1157 AM MDT SUN JUL 17 2016 Weak cold front is just about through the forecast area at midday and will continue moving slowly south. North-northeast winds behind front will keep a flow of slightly cooler but continued moist air across the region. Monday afternoon, thunderstorms are expected to redevelop over the NW portion of the CWA along the front and ahead of a short wave trough rotating around the western periphery of the upper high. The large area of high pressure aloft anchored over the central United States during the middle of the week remains in place through the end of the week. The upper ridge flattens somewhat by the end of the week as a series of short wave troughs moves through the westerly flow across the northern tier of states.
226 PM MDT SUN JUL 17 2016 Weak cold front is just about through the forecast area at midday and will continue moving slowly south. North-northeast winds behind front will keep a flow of slightly cooler but continued moist air across the region. Monday afternoon, thunderstorms are expected to redevelop over the NW portion of the CWA along the front and ahead of a short wave trough rotating around the western periphery of the upper high. This will be highly dependent on how far warm front is by Monday afternoon.
High pressure ridge well off to the east this morning as the next weather maker/storm system continues to move through the Upper Midwest. The generally stable airmass in place in the wake of the ridge will continue to erode the east and southeast propagation early, but outflow from the storms will move across the state this afternoon.
Have also noted breezy conditions continuing attm, and adjusted forecasted winds higher this aftn as sfc trof pressure gradients increase in our western zones. These speeds will decrease to 10 to 20 kts BTWN 18/03z thru 18/15z as loss of daytime heating slightly decouples the low level jet from the sfc, before picking up once more AFT 18/15Z. Isolated thunderstorm development will occur this aftn with the highest potential for KDHT BTWN 17/21Z thru 18/06Z and KGUY BTWN 18/02Z thru 18/06Z.
Overnight lows tonight will cool into the lower 70s in most locations.
The pressure gradient over the region will tighten as the ridge to the north strengthens, with deep and strong easterly flow over the area. The 12Z NAM and GFS both show a patch of cooler air aloft moving west over the area Monday (about -9C at 500 mb from 15 to 18Z Monday), but at the same time an area of drier air moves over the area (layer PW near 1.
The higher PW/s will gradually spread N into extreme NE TX/SW AR this afternoon. with only limited mixing of dewpoints expected over Deep E TX/N LA/SW AR in the higher PW air.
with the higher PW air expected to expand farther NNW across much of the area by Monday. With the center of the upper ridge. currently centered over the Lower MS Valley this afternoon. temps will climb into the upper 90s through the period with mixing remaining limited given the high PW air mass in place.
259 PM CDT SUN JUL 17 2016 A cold front was moving through the Arrowhead and far northwest Wisconsin this afternoon and should clear our eastern CWA this evening. More showers and storms were occurring ahead of a secondary cold front and were entering the Far northwest through north central Minnesota. High pressure will then build into the Northland tonight into Monday and provide dry conditions later tonight through Monday.
/ISSUED 304 AM CDT SUN JUL 17 2016/ The storm track will remain well north of the region for the foreseeable future as an upper level ridge builds overhead and intensifies during the upcoming week. The ridge will be centered just north of the region over Oklahoma and Kansas, which is likely the area that will see the hottest conditions over the next several days.
201 PM EDT SUN JUL 17 2016 High pressure into tonight.
Longwave pattern consists of a trof along the Pac coast and flat ridging over the northern high plains. East sfc flow and warming mid levels have capped our airmass today, but a storm has developed closer to upper trof and to our NW near Lewistown, and weak great basin energy is producing scattered weak activity in western WY. Latest high res models suggest best potential for this skirting across our north along mid level warm front, reaching MLS-BHK by 09-12z.
228 PM CDT SUN JUL 17 2016 The main forecast challenge for this short term forecast will be duration and intensity of storms associated with a cold front current stretched across southern Manitoba, between Winnipeg and the international border. Cold frontal boundary has pushed through Winnipeg, with temperatures behind wind shift in the mid to upper 60s whereas temperatures south of the boundary are generally in the mid to upper 70s. High pressure then sinks into southern MB by 12Z, and into NW Minnesota by late morning. Monday will be sunny but cooler with daytime highs in the low 70s in the far north east (Baudette) and the mid 80s in the far southwest (Lisbon), with highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s in the GFK-FAR area.
201 PM CDT SUN JUL 17 2016 Deep easterly flow aloft has taken control over the region, and will persist this week as the Subtropical Ridge center edges slightly farther north over the southern U. This flow regime will shunt the low level thermal ridge and mid level thetae axis westward, which portends little chance of rain and not quite as hot temperatures. A subtle mid level feature or two may still impinge upon the region during the next 7 days, but any resulting rain chances will likely be slight, and over the higher terrain since a low level focus will be hard to come by over the plains. Thereafter, the upper ridge will strengthen and expand somewhat which will likely lead to more locations rising to 100 degrees.
146 PM EDT SUN JUL 17 2016 Another weak front washes out across the area this afternoon, followed by weak high pressure tonight.
336 PM CDT SUN JUL 17 2016 High pressure aloft has strengthened over the region today further reducing any potential for afternoon thunderstorms. This will largely remain the case for the upcoming week as high pressure dominates the weather pattern across the central U.
Temperatures will remain above normal with overnight lows in the mid 70s over inland areas, and upper 70s to around 80 along the coast with daytime highs climbing into the lower 90s along the coast, and mid 90s inland with heat indices in the 100 to 105 degree range likely over inland locations each afternoon. High pressure will build aloft across the central part of the country through mid-week before retreating westward for the end of the week and into the weekend as a trough extends across the east coast and then into the Western Atlantic. At the surface, the Atlantic ridge axis remains generally north of the forecast area through the week with a weaker pressure pattern in place for the weekend.
/issued 325 AM CDT SUN JUL 17 2016/ (Today and Tonight) Hot and dry weather will continue today and tonight as the center of the upper ridge in New Mexico builds and expands east over Texas.
The clouds and precipitation have kept temperatures cooler near the Nebraska border with readings in the lower 80s.
Lows will be in the low-mid 70s inland and upper 70s along the coast.
However with the clearing taking place and the cold front still off to the West we should continue to destabilize through late afternoon into the evening hours.
Lows Monday morning will fall into the low and middle 70s. The increasing presence of high pressure both aloft and at the surface over the region, will keep rain chances at a minimum over the forecast area Monday.
and with models indicating high pressure building aloft tonight and Monday. and with ridging developing aloft. Low temps tonight in the low to mid 70s over interior counties.
(Issued 1027 AM CDT SUN JUL 17 2016) Pre-frontal trough which had provided for much of the active wx yesterday has pretty much now diminished/washed out over n cntrl AL/GA, giving way to slightly drier around H5 mixing into the lower levels. With some moisture still in place below H7, some convective activity should also begin to form within the next few hrs, although the lack of a real focus mech may keep most of the coverage in the iso cat over the w and in the low sct cat to the e, aided by some orographic lifting. Otherwise, the morning forecast package looks to be fairly reasonable for later today, as afternoon temps warm into the lower 90s and associated heat indices climb well into the upper 90s.
A weak ridge of high pressure has wedged itself between the last surface front and the next, which is still a long way away.
101 PM CDT SUN JUL 17 2016 Water vapor imagery shows a short wave trough move east across Iowa. with the higher chances along the far southern forecast area.
Convection has cleared the CWA with high pressure building in at the surface. While an upper trof will deepen to the east, profiles become more stable thanks to a building ridge to the west.
Monday looks more of the same with somewhat of a weakness in the subtropical ridge aloft to allow daytime heating to initiate scattered showers and a few storms from late morning into the afternoon hours. As the week progresses, guidance consensus still has an upper level ridge building and strengthening over the region.
231 PM CDT SUN JUL 17 2016 Quiet weather through Monday evening with no precipitation expected in the wake of a cold front that will continue to push through the region this weekend. At the surface a cold front was draped across the region, with northwest flow behind the front and southwest flow ahead of the front. Winds will decrease around sunset as high pressure builds across the region. This will lead to sunny skies with light winds on Monday, and high temps in the lower 80s.
316 PM EDT SUN JUL 17 2016 High pressure continues to nose it's way into the region this afternoon. moist underneath this ridge and some weak residual outflow boundaries have triggered a few scattered storms over the Southern Plateau and Valley this afternoon. models show this aforementioned upper-ridge subtly shifting back to the west a bit. Models show a complex of scattered storms forming over southeast KY along a weak front around midday day and dropping into the region over the course of the afternoon and early evening along the edge of this ridge.
401 PM EDT SUN JUL 17 2016 High pressure along the Mason-Dixon line will bring a mostly sunny afternoon. The next weather system in the form of a potent upper level disturbance and cold front will bring increasing clouds overnight and a few showers and gusty thunderstorms on Monday.
A stronger vort max will move up from the southwest as the upper ridge amplifies tomorrow afternoon. For tonight, should see stratus develop from south to north, with perhaps patchy fog along the Cheyenne Ridge and North Platte River Valley.
/issued 256 AM CDT SUN JUL 17 2016/ Water vapor imagery depicts a wave moving w within a minor 4h theta- e ridge axis. Otherwise the subtropical ridge will start to develop nwd today allowing for ely flow in the 7h-5h layer. Said ely flow will advect cooler 7h temps wwd signaling thickness cooling. Also with the subtropical ridge farther n the primary theta-e ridge axis will remain w-nw of the CWFA limiting convection, even in the mtns.
Many areas will likely struggle to reach the much more than the lower 80s. OK/AR centered mid tropospheric ridge strengthens in tandem with Northern and Canadian Plains low amplitude ridging. more likely to provide increasingly hot/humid/mid level capped environment until ridge weakens/flattens amid more progressive downstream and active upstream mid/upper flow pattern.
853 PM CST Fri Dec 30 2016 A coastal trough was already forming along the immediate coast.
Moisture is being advected in advance of a cold front that is expected to swing through the area Saturday night.
Model analysis shows the high pressure will continue to shift eastward overnight, being centered over our forecast area early Saturday morning. Given the model placement of the high pressure, thinning cloud cover and current temperature trends, have bumped down minimum temperatures tonight to the low 30s.
As this light PCPN works to moisten the layers beneath it, surface to low level flow is forecast to increase as low level ridging shifts off to the east and a LLJ develops downstream of a developing Central Plains trof. Coupled with strong isentropic ascent and further enhanced by a weak surface wave forecast to lift NE along a TX coastal trof, widespread rains with embedded isolated thunderstorms are expected to affect the area tomorrow and tomorrow night. By evening, heaviest rainfall should be focused over South Central LA/the Lower Atchafalaya, with rains tapering off to the west. Most of the rain should be finished by midnight, though some may still be ongoing over the Lower Atchafalaya. What remains of the coastal trof is forecast to lift northward and/or weaken on SUN, with something of a break in the rain expected.
Calm winds combined with mostly clear skies and temps near freezing will allow for patchy frost formation late tonight into early tomorrow morning.
648 PM EST Fri Dec 30 2016 Snow showers should end this evening as high pressure builds in. Rain and snow chances return Saturday with crossing low pressure. The latest model runs have trended cooler, so mentioned more of a rain/snow mix south of I 80 where boundary layer temps may warm enough for some rain, with all rain e The precip should stay all or mostly snow N of I 80, though only around an inch of accumulation is expected.
820 PM EST Fri Dec 30 2016 High pressure builds into the area tonight. The high moves to the east Saturday.
RAP40 analysis shows a well stacked H100-H70 anticyclone just south of the mouth of the MS River embedded within a mid/upr lvl wind field that has a strong zonal component. This will push the anticyclone acrs the FL Peninsula overnight, en route to the nrn Bahamas by daybreak. Indeed, models do show this break working its way acrs central FL in the predawn hrs, just as the anticyclone center passes overhead.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 26 46 41 53 / 0 60 80 70 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 24 48 40 52 / 0 50 70 60 Oak Ridge, TN 24 47 40 50 / 0 50 60 60 Tri Cities Airport, TN 19 48 36 52 / 0 40 50 60.
545 PM EST Fri Dec 30 2016 High pressure will build across our region through Saturday. The geopotential height gradient will weaken the back side of the upper trough that crossed the region this morning, with 150-200m height rises and strong subsidence tonight. High pressure over the NC/SC border saturday morning will quickly shift east offshore, while a closed upper low ejects out of the Southwest US and shears across the central US.
Cold front will move through tomorrow morning with winds veering to more northwesterly behind the front.
920 PM EST Fri Dec 30 2016 Fleeting high pressure will build in tonight. Rain and snow chances return Saturday with crossing low pressure. The latest model runs have trended cooler, so mentioned more of a rain/snow mix south of I 80 where boundary layer temps may warm enough for some rain, with all rain e The precip should stay all or mostly snow N of I 80, though only around an inch of accumulation is expected.
607 PM EST Fri Dec 30 2016 Snow showers should end this evening as high pressure builds in. Rain and snow chances return Saturday with crossing low pressure. The latest model runs have trended cooler, so mentioned more of a rain/snow mix south of I 80 where boundary layer temps may warm enough for some rain, with all rain e The precip should stay all or mostly snow N of I 80, though only around an inch of accumulation is expected.
1038 PM EST Fri Dec 30 2016 Weak high pressure will build in very briefly tonight and will be followed by another quick-moving and rather dry cold front as a clipper moves by to the north on Saturday.
Winds are still indicative of ridging over the area. An extensive cirrus deck was noted at launch reflecting this high level moisture streaming into the area.
Major change in near the Tennessee River where temperatures tonight will be below freezing. Temperatures are in the low to mid 50s under abundantly sunny skies and a light southwesterly wind.
Upper low pressure system over Oregon will drop south to near the San Fransisco Bay early Saturday afternoon.
845 PM EST Fri Dec 30 2016 Cold high pressure will build across our region through Saturday. Cold and dry high high pressure was settling over central NC this evening. We will simply go with a range of lows in the lower to mid 20s (coldest away from urban areas). High pressure over the NC/SC border saturday morning will quickly shift east offshore, while a closed upper low ejects out of the Southwest US and shears across the central US.
710 PM EST Fri Dec 30 2016 Weak high pressure will build in very briefly tonight and will be followed by another quick-moving and rather dry cold front as a Clipper moves by to the north on Saturday.
Trailing cold front will approach Central MO by around 12Z Saturday.
A weak cold front will affect KABI early Saturday afternoon, with light northwest winds following FROPA. Otherwise, cool tonight with the cloud cover in place but warmer with more sunshine on Saturday. Cold front make enough progress towards I-20 to trim temperatures down a little.
Dry and sunny conditions will hang around for the remainder of the afternoon as the upper ridge slides east. A series of upper troughs as well as broad southwesterly flow aloft will bring in chances for precip starting Saturday and continuing for most of the forecast period through next Saturday. Overnight tonight and into the early part of tomorrow, an upper trough will move east through the Midwest, and allow warm moist air to stream over the region.
638 PM EST Fri Dec 30 2016 A cold front over Iowa will move to northwest Ohio by Saturday evening.
1024 PM EST Fri Dec 30 2016 Weak high pressure will build in very briefly tonight and will be followed by another quick-moving and rather dry cold front as a Clipper moves by to the north on Saturday.
908 PM EST Fri Dec 30 2016 An intense area of low pressure over Canadian Maritimes will continue to move away from the area overnight. Weak high pressure builds into the region Saturday.
700 PM MST Fri Dec 30 2016 18z water vapor imagery and RAP analysis indicated broad ridging ongoing across the plains with area of mountain induced cirrus forming across northeast Colorado. Approaching short trough was just crossing the Canadian border with corresponding sfc front in the Dakotas. Cold front will sweep across the area and while winds above the surface will increase with its passage. Temps will be 20-25 degrees cooler tomorrow than today. An extended cold outbreak looks to be on tap for this period as a deep trough digs into the western CONUS early in the week then slowly moves across the remainder of the CONUS.
Weak band of light snow associated with an upper trough and cold front earlier this evening has weakened, with no further indications of snow. Skies were clearing from north to south behind the passing trough/front, resulting in patchy fog and low clouds already forming in some of the valleys (including the Treasure Valley).
This is occurring ahead of closed-off upper low now moving onshore in southern CA which is progged to slowly fill over the next 12 hours as it enters the SW CONUS. A warm front will quickly lift northward later on Saturday morning and enhance convection across SE TX and south LA. This warm front is expected to remain just to our south with the axis of heavy rainfall, but we still may see a few thunderstorms across our SE zones on Saturday afternoon along with some 1-2 inch rainfall totals in our southernmost LA parishes.
/Tonight through Saturday/ Tonight low pressure will shift into the Great Lakes dragging a cold front through Iowa. There may be a period of lower clouds associated with the frontal passage but any forcing is disorganized and there is just too much dry air in the lower levels to expect any precip. However a series of strong short waves will track along the west coast eventually carving out a western long wave trough and then broad CONUS mean trough.
1036 PM EST Fri Dec 30 2016 Under partly cloudy skies with a strong northeast breeze in place, temperatures in the Florida Keys are in the lower to middle 60s. However, the winds through the lowest 8000 feet have already pitched over to the northeast. Dewpoints have actually rebounded by a couple of degrees already, especially in the lower keys.
536 PM CST Fri Dec 30 2016 The boundary layer will remain well mixed this evening and overnight ahead of a cold front approaching the area.
703 PM EST Fri Dec 30 2016 Fleeting high pressure will build in tonight. Rain and snow chances return Saturday with crossing low pressure. The latest model runs have trended cooler, so mentioned more of a rain/snow mix south of I 80 where boundary layer temps may warm enough for some rain, with all rain e The precip should stay all or mostly snow N of I 80, though only around an inch of accumulation is expected.
Surface winds will increase tonight and will likely remain around 10 kts for most terminals as the pressure gradient tightens ahead of an approaching cold front. This is occurring ahead of closed-off upper low now moving onshore in southern CA which is progged to slowly fill over the next 12 hours as it enters the SW CONUS. A warm front will quickly lift northward later on Saturday morning and enhance convection across SE TX and south LA. This warm front is expected to remain just to our south with the axis of heavy rainfall, but we still may see a few thunderstorms across our SE zones on Saturday afternoon along with some 1-2 inch rainfall totals in our southernmost LA parishes.
612 PM EST Fri Dec 30 2016 An intense area of low pressure over Canadian Maritimes will continue to move away from the area overnight. Weak high pressure builds into the region Saturday.
The set-up is a bit borderline given the high clouds over the region, but given the lack of cold weather so far this season and a high enough confidence in below-freezing temperatures, we decided to go ahead and issue the warning. Just some high clouds and much cooler temperatures- in the 30s and 40s across the forecast area.
931 PM CST Fri Dec 30 2016 The current forecast looks to be on track as the upper level short wave trough approaches from the west and surface dewpoint temperatures increase. Little cooling is anticipated behind the weak cold front.
525 PM CST Fri Dec 30 2016 South winds will remain rather gusty much of the night before decreasing ahead of a cold front that will move through taf sites late tonight through Saturday morning. A relatively minor cold front will move through Oklahoma and north Texas overnight into Saturday, causing only minor changes in temperature, but will shift winds to northerly and will provide higher relative humidities.
Also lowered dewpoints quite a bit as latest obs continue to show scant low-level moisture with dewpoints in the low teens to the low 20s. Trailing cold front will approach Central MO by around 12Z Saturday.
With clear skies and the high pressure going over head tonight, winds will be very light and temperatures should drop quickly on strong radiational cooling. The dry air should heat rapidly, and highs in the mid 60s northeast to lower 70s southwest look on track, which is slightly warmer than guidance.
Wednesday will see a large trough moving onshore along the Pacific coast helping a ridge to build over the plains states. As the Pacific trough moves inland southwesterly flow will strengthen, as will the warm advection.