Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
610 AM CDT Wed Sep 7 2022 (Today through Thursday) Mid to high level clouds continue to stream across much of the region overnight with temperatures in the lower to middle 70s. Otherwise, light winds will continue today with highs in the lower to middle 90s. Otherwise, highs will be back in the lower to middle 90s.
Best chance for precipitation today will be in south central Tennessee as the upper level trough exits the area to the south, allowing much drier air to filter in from the north. Cold front will shift southward across Middle Tennessee today with much drier air filtering in at all levels of the troposphere. The lower dewpoints will allow for a very comfortable night tonight with lows dropping into the upper 50s east of I-65 and low 60s to the west. (Thursday Night through next Wednesday) 00Z guidance forecasts the southern end of the upper level trough that brought us the wet weather over the Labor Day weekend to cut off into an upper low near New Orleans tomorrow, then shift northward generally along the Mississippi River through the weekend.
Influence from the upper-level ridge will lead to a clear, dry, warm evening tonight. For that reason, while the lowest overnight temperatures were in northwest Oklahoma last night, tonight north central Oklahoma looks like a better candidate to be the coolest spot. Tomorrow looks to be dry and a touch milder as an upper-level low develops over the Gulf Coast and easterly flow aloft advects in slightly cooler air, particularly across the southeastern portion of the area.
300 PM MDT Wed Sep 7 2022 A cold front will move through North-central and Southwest Montana overnight into Thursday.
347 PM CDT Wed Sep 7 2022 Smoke has kept temperatures cooler across much of the region, therefore temperatures were lowered to match observations. A cold front will move through the region tomorrow morning increasing precipiation chances throughout the day. High temperatures are forecast to be 10 to 15 degrees cooler then this afternoon. An upper level trough will dig into the Pacific Northwest is expected to dampen ridging across the West. In addition a pacific cold front that moved through the region Thursday will bring in a cooler air mass through the weekend.
The smoke should remain in the higher levels, with little to none making down to the surface. Highs tomorrow will vary from the upper 70s in the Devils Lake Basin to the lower to mid 90s closer to Otter tail County. The cold front should move through during the afternoon and evening hours helping to move the smoke out of the region. There exists the chance for a few isolated showers or an isolated thunderstorm along the cold front as it shifts through the area.
1140 AM CDT Wed Sep 7 2022 (Rest of Today) A positively-tilted mid-level trough extending from New England southwestward into the northwestern Gulf of Mexico will continue to shift southeastward across the TN Valley today, as an intense subtropical ridge centered across UT expands east-northeastward into the Great Lakes region. At the surface, a weak cold front (portrayed as a subtle boundary layer moisture gradient) related to the trough will advance southward across Middle TN and into the local forecast area later this afternoon, perhaps initiating the development of widely scattered showers and a few thunderstorms to our north by 17-18Z.
302 PM CDT Wed Sep 7 2022 This afternoon through Thursday: a cold front will continue pushing south through the forecast area with scattered showers/storms ahead of it, mainly for locations along/south of I-20 going into the early evening. /EC/ By Thursday evening, a deepening upper trough axis will extend towards the Mississippi Gulf Coast and possibly develop a closed low pressure near the coast.
The anomalous upper ridge currently centered over the western Rockies will quickly begin weakening this evening between very strong upper troughing over SW Canada and Hurricane Kay moving northward along the western Baja California coast.
220 PM CDT Wed Sep 7 2022 A large area of high pressure was situated over the Mid to Upper Mississippi Valley region. Quiet weather is expected tonight through Thursday with lows in the upper 50s/low 60s and highs in the low/mid 80s.
Lows again the upper 60s to near 70 with Thursday highs in the low to mid 90s.
Quieter weather moves in as the ridge out west nudges into our area. Northerly flow continues to push the highest moisture content southward, effectively drying out the majority of the troposphere. The CWA continues to sit on the entrance side of a positively tilted trough, with expansive ridging nudging in from the west.
1241 PM CDT Wed Sep 7 2022 (Today through Thursday) Mid to high level clouds continue to stream across much of the region overnight with temperatures in the lower to middle 70s. Otherwise, light winds will continue today with highs in the lower to middle 90s. Otherwise, highs will be back in the lower to middle 90s.
1205 PM CDT Wed Sep 7 2022 (Today through Thursday afternoon) An upper level high remains over the western United States. Clockwise flow around the high is favorable to send a weak cold front into the Permian Basin early this morning. The pattern doesn't change at all tomorrow so expect almost identical conditions with highs reaching the low 90s most locations and the only 80s being in the higher elevations west of the Pecos River.
- Cooler with a good chance of rain this weekend. Thursday: Midlevel trough amplification from central Canada into the northern High Plains will induce the development of a 30-40 kt southwesterly low-level jet (LLJ) from the central High Plains into the upper Great Lakes on Thursday. The LLJ will advect a hotter and drier air mass into the region from the High Plains, setting the stage for potentially dangerous fire weather conditions over portions of northeast Nebraska during the afternoon hours. Despite lingering smoke aloft potentially taking a degree or two off highs, the overall synoptic setup lends itself to the high- side of guidance on forecast highs.
1231 PM CDT Wed Sep 7 2022 (Today through Thursday night) A large domain H500 high pressure system will continue to bring dry conditions to the Panhandles throughout the short term forecast period. A series of disturbances enhancing negative vorticity advection in the H500 mean northeasterly flow, entering the Panhandles in the general clockwise circulation of the high pressure system will re-establish UL convergence across the Panhandle.
Aloft, a large ridge will dominate the western half of the CONUS and stretch into the central Plains. The ridge will be oriented in a way that will help to keep central Indiana in light northeasterly flow in the upper levels, bringing in dry and seasonable air. Temperature wise, highs will be in the low 80s while overnight lows will be in the upper 50s to near 60.
228 PM CDT Wed Sep 7 2022 High pressure will be in place through the remainder of the work week resulting in fair weather across central Illinois.
A cold front is moving through Idaho tonight and will have much cooler temperatures moving in. Will have much cooler high temperatures mainly in the 70s mountains and 80s low elevations behind the cold frontal passage. Could continue into the nighttime hours as well as the cold front works east.
High pressure will settle across the area tonight allowing for clear skies and mainly calm winds. Low temps tonight likely to be in the 50s for most of the area, warmer in Chicago. Winds will remain light on Thursday, turning southerly as the high shifts east. A lake breeze is likely keeping the lakeshore area a few degrees cooler, with highs in the lower/mid 80s inland.
1238 PM CDT Wed Sep 7 2022 GOES-16 Satellite trends late this morning depict an upper level low centered near Shreveport, La while surface analysis places a quasi-stationary boundary over Southern Arkansas, North Mississippi, and North Alabama.
Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms can be expected this afternoon into early evening as an upper level trough remains situated over southern MS. Best chances for precipitation today will be in the vicinity of the trough across southeastern MS into southwestern AL, and stretching down along the coastal counties where the seabreeze can push inland. Tomorrow it becomes more focused across our eastern counties east of the I-65 corridor where a deeper plume of high PWATs over 2" can advect over the area and the upper level trough cuts off into an upper level low over southeastern MS. The cutoff upper level low will help to increase upper level divergence over the area and put the region into the left exit region of the upper level jet rounding the low/trough base Thursday.
Greatest chances for showers and thunderstorms will be over the higher terrain. The upper level trough oriented from New England to the Gulf will continue it's southeast descent, with an upper level ridge wedging in from southwest to northeast. Towards the end of this period, all deterministic models agree on a cut off closed low over Louisiana that will be the basis for our next round of wet weather.
257 PM EDT Wed Sep 7 2022 The pattern across the region over the next 36 hours will be characterized by an increasingly positively tilted upper trough along the spine of the Appalachian Mountains with mid- and upper- level height increases occurring across the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes regions. Eventually, the upper trough will depart, leaving a cutoff low meandering across the Gulf Coast by Thursday evening. At the surface, an elongated ridge will extend SW to NE from near Oklahoma City to near Detroit, with northerly and northeasterly flow expected across southern Indiana and central Kentucky. Tonight, winds will relax as the boundary layer attempts to decouple with high pressure in the vicinity. Tomorrow should be another mostly sunny and dry day as high pressure remains nearby and light NE flow continues.
1113 AM MDT Wed Sep 7 2022 Water vapor shows massing upper ridge over the western/central CONUS, with large trof pushing onshore BC. At the surface, lee Northern Rockies trof is slowly deepening. Another hot day in store today with thermal ridge peaking across our forecast area. For tonight, some gusty downslope winds in the northern Black Hills/foothills may develop, as well as gusty south/southwest winds across southwest/south central SD as upper trof begins working into the Northern Rockies and surface trof advances into the western Dakotas. Strong cold front will push into northeast WY and far western SD Thursday morning, and central SD Thursday afternoon.
1117 AM CDT Wed Sep 7 2022 GOES-16 Satellite trends late this morning depict an upper level low centered near Shreveport, La while surface analysis places a quasi-stationary boundary over Southern Arkansas, North Mississippi, and North Alabama.
1249 PM CDT Wed Sep 7 2022 Key Messages: - Patchy fog for some again tonight, otherwise quiet through the end of the week - Passing cold front brings precipitation chances to region over weekend * Quiet weather through Thursday Mostly cloudy skies overnight has greatly limited fog development from becoming more widespread this early morning. 00z HRRR guidance for smoke has elevated concentrations holding over the western portions of Minnesota and Iowa today as the expansive plume wraps around the area of high pressure over the southwest US.
(This afternoon through Thursday night) A broad upper level ridge continues to dominate the pattern across much of the western US. Dry air in place and subsidence from the ridge will keep precipitation chances at zero areawide for today through tomorrow evening.
(Rest of Today) A positively-tilted mid-level trough extending from New England southwestward into the northwestern Gulf of Mexico will continue to shift southeastward across the TN Valley today, as an intense subtropical ridge centered across UT expands east-northeastward into the Great Lakes region. At the surface, a weak cold front (portrayed as a subtle boundary layer moisture gradient) related to the trough will advance southward across Middle TN and into the local forecast area later this afternoon, perhaps initiating the development of widely scattered showers and a few thunderstorms to our north by 17-18Z.
These storms are being generated ahead of a weak cold front stretching across Central Texas.
Surface winds: variable less than 10 kt becoming SW 10-15 kt with gusts to 25-35 kt by 07/17Z, strongest in the higher terrain and across eastern Oregon.
A strong ridge of high pressure over the western United States will remains in place for Wednesday. As the high begins to weaken on Thursday, cooler temperatures and increasing chances of thunderstorms return to northern and central Arizona. High pressure will remain in place for another hot day across northern Arizona.
1220 PM CDT Wed Sep 7 2022 (Today and tonight) The longwave trough axis continues to slowly move away from the area.
Also, there is a weak wave with associated dry cold front moving through the area. Thursday, a Canadian cold front will slide southeast along the Continental Divide.
300 PM EDT Wed Sep 7 2022 Upper ridging to the west will "stretch" east into the region during the remainder of the week on into the upcoming weekend.
Strong subsidence on the anticyclone's eastern periphery continued to produce a clear sky across all of the Great Plains. High pressure aloft will begin collapsing Thursday, with appreciable height falls over SW KS. Sky grids will remain at 0% through Thursday as the weakening ridge axis remains overhead. As shown by HRRR vertically integrated smoke forecasts, smoke will continue to be imported over SW KS through Thursday, transported by the northerly midlevel flow on the eastern periphery of the weakening upper high. Prevailing hot/dry conditions will linger through the end of the week despite medium range models indicating upper level ridging in the Intermountain West breaking down Thursday while shifting eastward into the Central Plains.
Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: 18z surface analysis shows high pressure over Iowa. Slow-moving cold front stretches from northwest Quebec across Upper Michigan/northern Wisconsin/central Minnesota. Southwest-northeast oriented short wave ridge axis lies across Lower Michigan. an eastward extension of a strong upper high over the Intermountain West. another warmer than normal afternoon (a trend that is expected to continue in the coming days). Upper Michigan cold front will continue to sag south into Lower Michigan tonight but looks like it essentially washes out as the upstream high builds into the region.
Another day of early September heat is expected today before a trough brings cooler temperatures tomorrow. Another day of early September heat is expected today before a trough brings cooler temperatures tomorrow. Today through Thursday The ridge of high pressure that has been causing record breaking high temperatures will hold on for one more day. Tomorrow, the dominant high will flatten as a trough moves through northern Nevada and remnants of Hurricane Kay move northward.
334 PM EDT Wed Sep 7 2022 The upper level ridge over the western U. Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb trough in the Pacific NW and a trough on the east coast with a ridge over the Rockies 00z Thu. The trough moves into the northern Rockies 00z Fri and into the northern plains 00z Sat. In the extended, the GFS and ECMWF show a 500 mb trough in the northern plains 12z Sat which moves to the upper Great Lakes 12z Sun where it remains into 12z Mon. This trough closes off a 500 mb low 00z Mon which then slows everything way down as the trough moves slowly to the lower Great Lakes 12z Tue into Wed.
1225 PM CDT Wed Sep 7 2022 (Today through Thursday) A ridge of high pressure across the Four Corners of the Desert SW strengthens through the short term as a mid-level trough drops further south into the Gulf, with a few perturbations rounding the trough and maintaining a chance of rain along the lower Texas coast.
Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas was between high pressure to the west and a positively tilted upper trof to the east and southeast.
The long standing mid-level ridge centered over the Great Basin will gradually start to break down as upper level energy begins digging into the PacNW. A trof in association with that energy will drop southeast toward the Northern/Central Plains for the upcoming weekend. Sfc temps on Thursday ahead of the front will likely soar into the 90s, but it will be a touch cooler over NC SD.
346 PM EDT Wed Sep 7 2022 High pressure will remain over the area today into tonight.
Sunny skies and southerly winds will bring slightly warmer and more humid conditions Thursday, with highs around 10 degrees above normal.
Analysis shows that this front looks to be stalled across the Highway 98 corridor vicinity. /28/ This afternoon through Thursday: a cold front will continue pushing south through the forecast area with scattered showers/storms ahead of it, mainly for locations along/south of I-20 going into the early evening. /EC/ By Thursday evening, a deepening upper trough axis will extend towards the Mississippi Gulf Coast and possibly develop a closed low pressure near the coast.
1051 PM EDT Wed Sep 7 2022 With high pressure settling in by Thursday, a dry late week period will likely be replaced by renewed precipitation chance by late weekend. Isolated showers continue along a mid and upper level trough axis moving swd across PA, analyzed on the 00Z RAOB data and sfc obs.
Area visibility sensors still showing 9 or 10 miles, so our thinking is that the smoke and haze is not thick enough to prevent this unusually strong ridge of high pressure from allowing high temperatures today to climb into the mid triple digits, although it may not happen until 4 or 5 PM for some locations. Overnight tonight through Thursday morning, the chances for precipitation will slowly diminish away through our southeastern zones as the re-enforcing cold air advection moves in behind the cold front.
713 PM EDT Wed Sep 7 2022 Weak high pressure settles over SE MI from the northern Great Lakes tonight while maintaining favorable aviation conditions through Thursday. Upper ridging to the west will "stretch" east into the region during the remainder of the week on into the upcoming weekend.
Through the rest of Thursday, the combination of the trough and deep moisture will lead to multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms, with heavy rainfall the main threat.
1028 PM EDT Wed Sep 7 2022 High pressure will remain over the area today into tonight.
708 PM EDT Wed Sep 7 2022 High pressure will remain over the area today into tonight.
629 PM CDT Wed Sep 7 2022 This afternoon through Thursday: a cold front will continue pushing south through the forecast area with scattered showers/storms ahead of it, mainly for locations along/south of I-20 going into the early evening. /EC/ By Thursday evening, a deepening upper trough axis will extend towards the Mississippi Gulf Coast and possibly develop a closed low pressure near the coast.
It is underneath broad Western CONUS ridging aloft, with H5 values remaining AOA 582 DM's thru the period. But in general, the lower trop north to northeasterly flow should promote a dry (at least silent pop) forecast thru tmrw. from Crowley's ridge to the southern Ozark SEMO counties.
Upper Keys picked up around an inch of precipitation while the Lower Keys, especially Key West picked up between 1. Meanwhile, a robust outflow boundary from earlier convection over southwest mainland Florida is steadily marching southwest across our waters north of the Lowers Keys. Expanding our field of vision, a broad upper level trough is entering the northwest Gulf of Mexico. This is aiding in breaking down the ridge that was present over us and leading to winds becoming light and variable.
Northerly flow of 3-8kt was advecting drier air into the region, with dew points falling into the lower to middle 60s for southern TN and far north AL at this hour. The going forecast is on track overnight, with temperatures dipping into the upper 50s in southern TN and far north AL near the TN state line, to the lower 60s further south.
High pressure settling right overhead, bringing clear skies and calm/light winds. Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: 18z surface analysis shows high pressure over Iowa. Slow-moving cold front stretches from northwest Quebec across Upper Michigan/northern Wisconsin/central Minnesota. Southwest-northeast oriented short wave ridge axis lies across Lower Michigan. an eastward extension of a strong upper high over the Intermountain West. another warmer than normal afternoon (a trend that is expected to continue in the coming days). Upper Michigan cold front will continue to sag south into Lower Michigan tonight but looks like it essentially washes out as the upstream high builds into the region.
Cloud cover will decrease with skies becoming partly cloudy to mostly clear late, with lows in the low to mid 70s.
The forecast is still on track as high pressure gradually moves across Wisconsin.
622 PM CDT Wed Sep 7 2022 High pressure will be in place through the remainder of the work week resulting in fair weather across central Illinois.
The pattern across the region over the next 36 hours will be characterized by an increasingly positively tilted upper trough along the spine of the Appalachian Mountains with mid- and upper- level height increases occurring across the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes regions. Eventually, the upper trough will depart, leaving a cutoff low meandering across the Gulf Coast by Thursday evening. At the surface, an elongated ridge will extend SW to NE from near Oklahoma City to near Detroit, with northerly and northeasterly flow expected across southern Indiana and central Kentucky. Tonight, winds will relax as the boundary layer attempts to decouple with high pressure in the vicinity. Tomorrow should be another mostly sunny and dry day as high pressure remains nearby and light NE flow continues.
811 PM CDT Wed Sep 7 2022 High pressure will be in place through the remainder of the work week resulting in fair weather across central Illinois.
1000 PM CDT Wed Sep 7 2022 The mid level trough that has been over the region for the past few days has shifted south.
A large area of high pressure was situated over the Mid to Upper Mississippi Valley region. Quiet weather is expected tonight through Thursday with lows in the upper 50s/low 60s and highs in the low/mid 80s.
Mixing today facilitating the hot temperatures induced by falling heights in response to a breakdown of the upper level ridge. Conditions will begin to relax towards midnight as a prefrontal trough moves east of the area and allows some cooling to work into the area.
548 PM CDT Wed Sep 7 2022 (This afternoon through Thursday night) A broad upper level ridge continues to dominate the pattern across much of the western US. Dry air in place and subsidence from the ridge will keep precipitation chances at zero areawide for today through tomorrow evening.
The cold front that will move through tomorrow is currently producing showers in eastern Montana. Smoke has kept temperatures cooler across much of the region, therefore temperatures were lowered to match observations. A cold front will move through the region tomorrow morning increasing precipiation chances throughout the day. High temperatures are forecast to be 10 to 15 degrees cooler then this afternoon. An upper level trough will dig into the Pacific Northwest is expected to dampen ridging across the West. In addition a pacific cold front that moved through the region Thursday will bring in a cooler air mass through the weekend.
/Issued 251 PM EDT Wed Sep 7 2022/ A few showers have popped up this afternoon across north GA in advance of a weak upr trough axis that is moving south across the area. Over the next 24-36 hours, it is this trough axis that is expected to cut-off and become better organized along the central Gulf Coast. In the meantime, a broad area of high pressure centered over the Upper Midwest will briefly usher in slightly drier air to much of north GA (behind the trough) overnight into early Thursday.