Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
941 AM PST Thu Jan 26 2017 Strong ridging will build over the region through the end of the work week. The ridge will be subject to the passage of a few weak disturbances this weekend which might return the flurry threat to the area. Otherwise expect cooler conditions, with an abundance of low clouds and some fog in the valleys into the weekend.
314 PM EST Thu Jan 26 2017 A cold front will cross the region bringing cooler temperatures and some gusty winds to northern New England for tomorrow. Temperatures will start to fall this afternoon and continue to fall overnight as a cold front moves through. with the highest gusts in the mountains but most areas should see around 25mph from the northwest. As is typical with a cold front expect upslope snow showers to continue throughout the day in northern New Hampshire and along the Canadian border.
Despite temperatures in the middle to upper 30s precipitation has been flurries instead of sprinkles as the lower layers have been dry enough to allow flurries to not melt before reaching the ground. Dewpoints over OH have been closer to freezing, while dewpoints here in eastern KY have mostly been in the middle to upper 20s. With this in mind have trended away from liquid precipitation chances for most of the short term forecast even when temperatures are above freezing.
While there may be periods of clearing skies at times today, it appears likely that by late morning into the afternoon, the low levels will mix into at least a broken stratocumulus cloud deck in the 2500-4000 foot range. This will likely limit high temperatures generally in the low to middle 30s. Assuming some clearing, could see temperatures fall into the upper teens but have currently gone with lows in the lower 20s due to expectation of continued boundary layer mixing through the night. Southern branch of the upper trough begins to retrograde over the southwest conus while an upper ridge builds over the Inter Mountain west on Friday.
541 AM CST Sun Dec 11 2016 Strong westerly winds this morning and afternoon will decrease by late afternoon/early evening as a cold front shifts winds to the northeast. Also, despite the cloud cover limiting full sun, very strong downsloping winds will help boost temperatures well above seasonal averages ahead of a cold frontal passage this evening. The cold front will back door into the region beginning this afternoon then push through this evening but winds will be light out of the northeast behind the front. Slightly cyclonically curved yet still nearly zonal flow will dominate this week with a long wave upper trough over the upper midwest and Great Lakes.
VFR conditions are expected this afternoon and evening, but MVFR ceilings may develop with a weak cold front late tonight. Increasing downslope flow will also help temperatures warm to the highest values we have seen in over a week. Expect slightly cooler conditions over the northern Permian Basin Monday and not much change elsewhere. The forecast gets a bit complicated later in the week when a strong cold front begins to move south into the Southern Plains.
Visibilities and ceilings should decrease to IFR and eventually LIFR again this evening along the I-35 corridor ahead of a weak cold front that should pass through between 8-10Z. Warmer temperatures are expected due to a southwesterly lower level flow eroding the cloudiness. The weak cold advection will be offset by a warmer southwesterly flow above the frontal surface with central and western areas warmer on Monday than today.
Expect the dry air and wind aloft to erode much of the fog from the Snake Plain by late morning with just the lowest elevations along the OR/ID border keeping patchy fog into the afternoon. Gusty winds will develop across the higher terrain of southeast Oregon and southwest Idaho this afternoon as the increasing winds aloft mix to the surface.
Have not adjusted the highs though as with some breaks in the clouds, current high temperature forecast still seems feasible. At the surface, the broad area of high pressure centered over the Mid-Atlantic states this morning will move east into the western Atlantic.
resulting in cigs becoming IFR ahead of a weak cold front that will drift SE into NE TX/SW AR. Warmer air surging in off the Gulf has temperatures around 50 this morning. A weak cold front will push down into the area by this time tomorrow, laying down along I-20 overnight as this 1025mb air mass drifts Eastward. Model agree is quite good for a second stronger area of high pressure to emerge out of Canada by midweek and bolster the colder and drier air back down to the Gulf coast, so temperatures will warm today and hold a bit and then take the plunge again for late week.
Behind that trough, a cold front will push south into the area this evening and overnight. Following the cold front tonight, lows are expected to fall into the upper 30s to lower 40s.
Warmer air surging in off the Gulf has temperatures around 50 this morning. A weak cold front will push down into the area by this time tomorrow, laying down along I-20 overnight as this 1025mb air mass drifts Eastward. Model agree is quite good for a second stronger area of high pressure to emerge out of Canada by midweek and bolster the colder and drier air back down to the Gulf coast, so temperatures will warm today and hold a bit and then take the plunge again for late week.
Warmer temperatures are expected due to a southwesterly lower level flow eroding the cloudiness. The weak cold advection will be offset by a warmer southwesterly flow above the frontal surface with central and western areas warmer on Monday than today.
Temperatures were climbing into the 30s at this hour and based upon the BMX sounding should reach the 40s rather quickly after mixing out the lower level inversion. Warm advection should help temperatures rise into the lower to middle 50s this afternoon despite the increasing clouds.
Then, a cold front will move through the area this evening through tonight, turning west to southwest winds of around 10 knots to the north/northeast from north to south. Behind that trough, a cold front will push south into the area this evening and overnight. Following the cold front tonight, lows are expected to fall into the upper 30s to lower 40s.
938 AM EST Sun Dec 11 2016 High pressure along the Mid-Atlantic coast will move out to sea tonight as a cold front crosses the Plains into the Mississippi River Valley.
503 AM CST Sun Dec 11 2016 Warm advection and cloud cover has kept temperatures from falling much, if at all, tonight and latest surface observations are showing temperatures near or at freezing across northern Missouri. With temperatures expected to continue to rise early this morning, the threat of freezing drizzle is decreasing and may only be confined to localized areas in far northern Missouri for a few hours around sunrise. So forecast soundings continue indicate any precipitation will likely be drizzle or freezing drizzle.
With strengthening low level jet this evening into tonight expected to bring winds to around wind advisory levels over some of the higher elevations of the E TN mountains, will go ahead and issue a wind advisory for these areas running from 00Z this evening until 16Z Monday. Chattanooga Airport, TN 48 43 56 47 / 10 60 90 30 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 47 44 56 43 / 10 80 100 20 Oak Ridge, TN 47 43 54 43 / 10 90 90 20 Tri Cities Airport, TN 45 40 52 38 / 10 80 100 20 TN.
500 AM CST Sun Dec 11 2016 lower MVFR and some IFR ceilings will linger through much of the morning before moisture shifts east and cold front moves through. Afore mentioned cold front will move from northwest to southeast across the area today with associated wind shift. Otherwise, a cold front will enter northwest Oklahoma shortly after sunrise and move quickly southeast across Oklahoma into north Texas during the day today.
501 AM EST Sun Dec 11 2016 A low pressure system will eject northeast from the Plains into the Great lakes today into Monday. As warmer air is pulled into the system, snow will turn to a mix of rain snow this afternoon into tonight and then end early Monday with the passage of a cold front. Temperatures today will warm to the mid 30s far north to the lower 40s far south. Expect highs from the lower 30s nw to the mid 40s se.
In the middle and upper levels, (700-200 mb), Latest available IR imagery overlaid with model streamline analysis as of 900 am continues to depict a rather expansive low amplitude long wave polar trough positioned across the entire northern two thirds of the CONUS. Well to the south of that feature, the center of a deep and warm anticyclone is located just south of Haiti.
401 AM CST Sun Dec 11 2016 Water vapor loop indicated an upper level trough over northeast MT. Upper low will move across the area today and produce light snow. Water vapor loop also indicated a trough digging over northwest Canada. Trough will shift into central Canada on Mon. Shot of cooler air will precede the trough and move into the area Sun night. Another shot of cooler air will move into the area late Tue.
Thereafter, the gradient will weaken as high pressure drifts into the western Atlantic.
420 AM CST Sun Dec 11 2016 Corrected to add final paragraph First cold front expected to arrive today, but high temperatures today are still expected to top out at above-normal readings as colder airmass remains north of Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles.
404 AM CST Sun Dec 11 2016 We will rapidly moisten today as dp temps warm from the low 30s this morning to the low 50s by late afternoon. Ground temps will not have adequate time to warm and as a result, it will help to cool the lower boundary layer further after dark easily bringing the ambient temp to its dp. Some light to moderate rain will accompany the first of 3 cold fronts by late Monday.
Winds will swing northerly behind a cold front and be fairly breezy. /Issued 420 AM CST Sun Dec 11 2016/ First cold front expected to arrive today, but high temperatures today are still expected to top out at above-normal readings as colder airmass remains north of Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles.
640 AM EST Sun Dec 11 2016 A low pressure system will eject northeast from the Plains into the Great lakes today into Monday. As warmer air is pulled into the system, snow will turn to a mix of rain snow this afternoon into tonight and then end early Monday with the passage of a cold front. Temperatures today will warm to the mid 30s far north to the lower 40s far south. Expect highs from the lower 30s nw to the mid 40s se.
459 AM CST Sun Dec 11 2016 High pressure is exiting off the mid Atlantic states this morning as our next system has dropped down the eastern slopes of the Rockies and into Kansas. Winds have become southeast and this is why mrng temps are running about 10 degrees warmer than yesterday.
Coastal trof and resultant moisture convergence has lifted north along the Georgia coastal coast. Another trough will lift up from the south late this afternoon and evening. with a surge of near surface moisture advection anticipated with dewpoints increasing into the lower 60s over the adjacent Atlantic and NE FL beaches by 00z and upper 60s by 06z over the offshore waters. Easterly winds will veer to the southeast this afternoon as a coastal trough lifts further north across the Georgia coastal waters. A surge of low level moisture will advect into our coastal waters tonight as yet another trough lifts north across our waters.
The axis of the southern jet moves northward as the zonal flow pattern slowly evolves into a very weak upper level ridge Monday.
450 AM MST Sun Dec 11 2016 Warmer and drier weather expected through the entire week.
Also, despite the cloud cover limiting full sun, very strong downsloping winds will help boost temperatures well above seasonal averages ahead of a cold frontal passage this evening. The cold front will back door into the region beginning this afternoon then push through this evening but winds will be light out of the northeast behind the front. Slightly cyclonically curved yet still nearly zonal flow will dominate this week with a long wave upper trough over the upper midwest and Great Lakes.
649 AM EST Sun Dec 11 2016 High pressure over the area will shift off the coast tonight allowing temperatures to begin to moderate Monday.
412 AM CST Sun Dec 11 2016 First cold front expected to arrive today, but high temperatures today are still expected to top out at above-normal readings as colder airmass remains north of Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles.
Highs today will range from the lower 40s north to around 50F south. High pressure will shift off to the east with a weak downslope flow across the forecast district on Monday. A second cold front will work its way in late Monday.
Isentropic lift in the 295-300K layer will maintain a marginal threat for showers over the coastal plains for the rest of the morning with lift associated with low level warm air advection with the low level jet shifting to the east this afternoon and linger over the Victoria Crossroads. The lower cigs will slowly lift but remain in solidly in MVFR range.
Low pressure was located over SE CO this morning and the pressure gradient continues to tighten as this system deepens. The low over CO will weaken and meander across the state tonight and eventually will move far enough east to drag a weak cold front into SE TX.
Minor update tonight with the upper low on the east coast. Models also want to put fog over the east with the additional moisture from rain as well as cooling temperatures behind the low.
Dry conditions are expected across the region on Tuesday as high pressure continues to move in. /issued 348 PM EST Mon Jan 23 2017/ Gale Warning in effect through this evening for Gulf and The strong upper level trough will continue to move east northeastward from the Southeastern United States into the Mid Atlantic by Tuesday. Any leftover showers in the area will dissipate quickly this evening as drier and cooler air continue to work into the region.
Not much change in the thinking this shift, and the forecast for today is largely just an update from the previous with the exception that temperatures will be warmer across the Red Hills portion of our forecast area.
An upper level low pressure system sliding across the region today will bring less than ideal ceiling/visibility conditions to the terminal areas, as well as precipitation chances.
305 AM EST Tue Jan 24 2017 Mild high pressure will build into the area in the wake of the deep low pressure system lift northeast up the northern Mid Atlantic coast.
1244 AM EST Tue Jan 24 2017 Precipitation will diminish overnight as low pressure pulls further away from the region.
Mainly Clear skies as High pressure builds across the region and this will set up decent radiational cooling conds and have gone a couple of degrees below guidance and will see widespread temps near 40/lower 40s inland with even a few isolated pockets of upper 30s in colder locations but probably still just above the threshold to allay any frost concerns.
/26/ Expect dry weather tonight as high pressure builds in across the region. /27/ Prior discussion below: Tonight and Tuesday: The upper low has shifted well to the east of the area this afternoon, as upper and surface ridging build into the area.
325 AM EST Tue Jan 24 2017 Low pressure system has exited the Southern Appalachians, but wrap around moisture and a consistent 5-10 mph NW flow has kept low stratus and some light sprinkles across most of the area overnight. Highs will warm into the low to upper 50s as winds back to the WSW later in the day and heating is allowed to occur. A dry, and cooler night will then occur due to the clear and calm conditions as lows drop well into the 30s in most locations. At the surface, the ridge has moved to the east and a return flow is underway with S-SW low level winds across the area. A cold front ahead of the upper trough is approaching the Miss River.
An upper ridge will bring dry weather to Western Washington Tuesday.
436 AM EST Tue Jan 24 2017 A low pressure area developing off the mid Atlantic coast this morning will move northeast and be near Cape Cod early tonight.
A quieter day is expected across the region as high pressure continues to slowly build from the west. North of the region, the strong upper-level trough/now powerful Nor'easter that brought the severe storms to the region early Monday morning, will continue moving up the eastern seaboard with broad upper- level ridging in its wake across the east central CONUS.
The heart of the upper low was located over central Wyoming but a 120+ kt jet with embedded 140 kt jet streak was building its way across the central Plains and a strengthening short wave trough was moving out of the Four Corners region. Any precip will most likely fall as rain today but during the evening temperatures will plummet as the low passes and there is a small chance for light snow or even a brief period of light freezing rain/drizzle.
331 AM CST Tue Jan 24 2017 Today and Tonight: Ridge axis at the surface and aloft is bisecting the forecast area at the moment, but should shift east rapidly this morning and facilitate a change in airmass. Southerly low level flow along with anomalous warmth just above the boundary layer will help achieve maximum temperatures some 5 to 10 degrees warmer than yesterday. Its attendant cold front will move rapidly through the Plains today and into the MS valley tonight.
1049 PM CST Mon Jan 23 2017 For the 06Z TAFs, A Pacific cold front will move across the area later tonight into Tuesday morning. A second cold front will move across KGUY and KDHT Tuesday evening with northwest winds in its wake. This cold front will approach KAMA just beyond this fcst cycle. A Pacific cold front will move across the area later tonight into Tuesday morning. /Issued 302 PM CST Mon Jan 23 2017/ The upper level analysis places an upper level ridge over the southern Plains breaking down as Pac NW trough digs into the Great Basin region. A strong mid level jet is rounding the base of Pac NW trough bringing dry air into SW AZ per water vapor imagery.
A cold upper low along the west coast will swing inland tonight, resulting in accumulating snow across much of western and northern New Mexico. Deep upper low taking its sweet time sagging south along the west coast today. This upper low is forecast to open up and sag southeastward toward NM tonight. Both hi-res and global models, however, agree that the main mid-level (baroclinic) frontal band associated with the upper trough will move through tonight. The slower progression of the main upper level trough will lead to greater snow shower coverage across the northern mountains Tuesday and Tuesday night.
400 AM EST Tue Jan 24 2017 Low pressure off of New Jersey will move up the coast through the day. High pressure in the central plains will briefly ridge into the region on Tuesday.
A cold front will be approaching Tuesday evening bringing an increase in clouds. Onshore flow will will begin to strengthen late tonight as lee side trough develops over the High Plains. Low temperatures tonight will be in the lower to middle 50s with lower 60s along the immediate coast. Upper trough will move out of the southwest into the Plains on Tuesday.
Temperatures today to climb into the low to mid 70s across the Four State Region. Isolated to widely scattered showers will be possible across Deep East Texas and north Louisiana overnight as a cold front moves across the region.
Upstream ridging in advance of the wave emerging over the front range this morning will eventually shunt the moisture axis east 18- 21z and shut down forcing bringing an end to rain and giving way to overcast low clouds as the subsidence inversion strengthens and traps low-level moisture. Clouds and rain will keep temps muted around 40 degrees, warmer than average but less than would be otherwise suggested by the warm airmass over the region.
359 AM CST Tue Jan 24 2017 A quiet day is in store for the forecast area today as high pressure is over the area.
Gusty winds will shift from the S to W during the day with a wind shirt to the NW as a cold front moves across the area Tuesday night.
Tuesday will feature mostly dry and cloudy conditions with highs generally in the lower to middle 40s.
The minimum temperature forecast looks good at this point, and with temperatures expected to only fall into the m/u 30s freezing fog will not be a concern overnight. Broad ridging will follow the exiting trough with any lingering cloud cover dissipating from southwest to northeast. As this occurs an elongated positively tilted broad trough will be moving across the western half of the CONUS bringing snowfall to the Rockies but likely bringing rainfall to the Southern Plains and Southeast.
High pressure and unseasonably mild conditions will briefly return for midweek before a pattern change brings colder temperatures and lake effect snow to close out the month. and freezing rain has been occurring over the Endless Mountain region and parts of the Middle Susq River Valley.
Can see the upper closed low spinning over Wyoming. TD's in the low to mid 30's with east to southeast flow up to 700mb. Initial precipitation will have the possibility for some freezing type over the southwest with snow to the northwest.
/issued 250 PM CST Mon Jan 23 2017/ WV imagery shows an upper-lvl ridge spanning the central CONUS, resulting in mostly sunny skies and an unseasonably warm day across West Texas and Southeast New Mexico as breezy downslope warming pumps afternoon temps into the 70s at many locations. Unfortunately, to the west, a couple of troughs are muscling their way east, and will continue shunting the ridge east, w/zonal flow aloft transitioning to SW overnight. An upper trough currently off the OR/CA coast is forecast to merge w/another just to its east and arrive over SD/NE in around 24 hours. Leeside troughing on the Front Range ahead of this feature will increase SW flow overnight, setting things up for a another wind event Tuesday.
1208 AM EST Tue Jan 24 2017 A strong low pressure center over the Carolinas will move off the Mid-Atlantic Coast tonight. The air mass will be drying overnight as the low moves slowly away from the area. A dry pressure ridge moves into the area Tuesday and will remain over the area through Tuesday night.
Powerful West Coast trough tracking through the Rockies into Central Plains for Mid Week.
Isolated snow showers are possible over the higher terrain Tuesday.
1111 PM CST Mon Jan 23 2017 High pressure at sfc beginning to move east of area.
Low pressure will deepen across the high plains of southeast Colorado keeping breezy southeast winds and mild temperatures in place across the forecast area tonight. Above normal temperatures will continue into Tuesday across much of the area before a cold front arrives ushering in more seasonable temperatures for late Jan. A cold front will drop southeast across central Kansas by late Tuesday afternoon and early evening with veering/shift in the wind to northwest.
High pressure has settled over the Mid South this evening with clearing skies and light winds expected. Upper level ridging will displace northwest flow aloft tonight.
255 AM EST Tue Jan 24 2017 Quiet weather in store today as a weak ridge of dry high pressure drifts over the area by days end.
Upper ridging in place over the Southern and portions of the Central Plains between upper troughs along the West Coast and southeast states. Lead wave from the upper trough makes its way into Wyoming tonight and on east into the Plains Tuesday. Temps starting off much cooler than expected in northeast areas and this makes for a challenging temperature forecast as southeast winds increase under a strong southwesterly low level jet. Highs still expected to reach the lower 50s to lower 60s in the warm sector.
342 AM EST Tue Jan 24 2017 Upper level low just off the North Carolina coast continues to spin and lift off to the north along the east coast. The clearing skies will allow temperatures to drop into the low 40s to upper 30s.
244 AM CST Tue Jan 24 2017 High pressure at the surface and aloft will help keep things dry today.