Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
328 AM CST Wed Nov 16 2022 The upper level trough responsible for yesterday's snow will continue to sit over the Great Lakes and southeastern Canada through the week. Locations in northeast Missouri and west central Illinois will scrape the low 30s for highs. Thursday will be slightly warmer, but will still continue the trend of well below average temperatures. A weak cold front will move through the area Thursday, serving to reinforce the already cold air and provide the potential for flurries to portions of Missouri Thursday night.
The northwesterly flow on the back side of this low will stream moist air along a trough which will bring low level Omega along the lake sure this afternoon and evening.
An upper level ridge will maintain its position across the western United States through the short term. Some patchy freezing fog is possible in the valleys each morning.
For today, the trend of cooler below normal temperatures continues with highs in the 40s to lower 50s as the cloud cover persists through much of the day before beginning to break later this afternoon and evening.
549 AM CST Wed Nov 16 2022 (Today through Thursday Night) Large scale upper trof rmnd in place east of the Rockies this mrng, with the flow pattern over the Mid-South primarily zonal.
A west to west-northwesterly upper level flow, and surface ridging building in, will keep low level Gulf moisture shut off, although high clouds will stream across the area.
403 AM MST Wed Nov 16 2022 A quiet morning over the area will give way to increasing chances for snow this afternoon and evening, as a strong cold front moves southward through the entire region.
Position of the cold front is well defined no matter which dataset you choose as a thin band of showers streams southeastward, generally over I-4 this morning with dense cloud cover spreading over the central and north peninsula. Highs today will reside in two distinct camps due to the position of the boundary; across the north, temperatures will reach the mid to upper 70s and down south, the low to mid 80s are still at play for one final day. Low stratus will still linger as a cold front, currently stretched from KSGJ to KSRQ, pushes slowly southeastward through the day.
(Today through Thursday) Post frontal strong high pressure will continue to build into the region and usher in quite cold air for this time of year.
407 AM CST Wed Nov 16 2022 Forecast challenges include cold frontal timing today and potential for snow along and behind the fropa, as well as blowing snow and ice- induced damage heading into Thursday when strong northwest winds develop. At 3 AM CST, temperatures ranged from the single digits above zero to low teens above zero throughout and west of the Missouri River valley, with readings a bit warmer further east in the region ranging from the mid teens to the low 20s. Other than the cold fropa progged for today into early this evening, today's weather will be relatively benign while high pressure at the surface and fast northerly flow aloft are present.
High clouds are due to arrive this evening with cooler temperatures Thursday. Otherwise, as the elongated ridge begins to break down towards the end of this weekend, a cutoff low in the eastern pacific will slowly impart lower pressure effects on the area as it slides down the coast from Washington and Oregon.
The increase in high clouds is in response to increasing winds aloft ahead of the next upper trough axis. This trough wont arrive until Thursday so expect high clouds to be mostly in place through the period. Lift from the trough axis arrives Thursday morning as the trough approaches the area. However, the lower-levels of the atmosphere should be much too dry to allow for precipitation to reach the surface. Some of the high-res models show some simulated reflectivity in the Coastal Plains, but forecast soundings show a large dry layer to overcome.
Low pressure over Manitoba and High pressure over British Columbia are both acting in concert to direct northerly flow through out entire CWA. The storm system will effectively mix through enough of the atmosphere to pull down warmer temperatures from aloft, allowing high temperatures to rise near the thawing mark this afternoon. Late in the day into the evening the wave will push a cold front through NE Montana and some scattered snow showers.
601 AM CST Wed Nov 16 2022 Below normal conditions will continue today, though we should be slightly warmer than yesterday. The region will remain under upper troughing aloft as a large longwave trough will stay entrenched over the eastern one third to half of the nation. High pressure at the surface will slowly begin to wedge south into the Mid-South and expand across our region through the day. Highs today will reach the lower 50s. While still some 15 degrees below normal, this will at least be a few degrees warmer than yesterday. Readings in the mid 20s are expected roughly along and north of the Highway 82 corridor. This will allow for overnight lows to be warmer and in the lower 30s, with mid 30s in the far southern reaches of the Pine Belt.
630 AM EST Wed Nov 16 2022 Upper trough swings across the area tonight. However, an upper-level trough/low over the Great Lakes will swing southeast across the OH Valley into WV tonight. It remains chilly today with highs expected to be in the upper 30s to low 40s across the lowlands, and 30s along the mountains. Approaching high pressure on Thursday and its resulting warm air advection will cut off lake enhanced moisture at the start of the forecast period.
642 AM EST Wed Nov 16 2022 High pressure will build across the Deep South for the next several days. The low ceilings below a strong llvl inversion will likely remain until mid-morning, possibly lingering into the mid-day hours along the coast. The combination of the northwest winds and thick cloud cover should keep high temperatures limited to the low 60s inland to the mid 60s along the coast. Using a blend of MOS, low temperatures are forecast to range in the low to mid 40s.
Could see some low level clouds stick around as there is still some moisture pooled above the cold front inversion, but already seeing some signs that may begin to mix out some providing for some clearing. Temps will be cool, only reaching the lower 50s in most areas. Tomorrow, main trough axis continues to shift slightly east allowing for more clearing of cloud cover across the whole area.
The cold front that brought the area rain yesterday morning has pushed off the East Coast this morning with the post frontal clouds finally starting to scatter out. Another trough is digging down across the Upper Midwest, but latest guidance suggests this will not move much more to the south before pushing off towards the east.
901 AM EST Wed Nov 16 2022 High pressure will build across the Deep South for the next several days. The low ceilings below a strong llvl inversion will likely remain until mid-morning, possibly lingering into the mid-day hours along the coast. The combination of the northwest winds and thick cloud cover should keep high temperatures limited to the low 60s inland to the mid 60s along the coast. Using a blend of MOS, low temperatures are forecast to range in the low to mid 40s.
540 AM CST Wed Nov 16 2022 (Today and tonight) Another day of cooler temperatures and generally clear skies is expected for Wednesday.
457 AM CST Wed Nov 16 2022 The upper level trough responsible for yesterday's snow will continue to sit over the Great Lakes and southeastern Canada through the week. Locations in northeast Missouri and west central Illinois will scrape the low 30s for highs. Thursday will be slightly warmer, but will still continue the trend of well below average temperatures. A weak cold front will move through the area Thursday, serving to reinforce the already cold air and provide the potential for flurries to portions of Missouri Thursday night.
(Today and tonight) Another day of cooler temperatures and generally clear skies is expected for Wednesday.
Clear skies, with offshore flow, cover the region early this morning as upper level ridging moves in. The strong northeast gradient is resulting in gusty northeast to east wind across the foothills and west slopes of the northern Sierra where gusts from 25-35 mph are occurring (local gusts of 40-60 mph are occurring at the usual windy spots near gaps in terrain, west facing canyons and exposed ridges). Dry and mild weather will continue today as high pressure strengthens over the area.
415 AM MST Wed Nov 16 2022 Aviation Section Updated A quiet morning over the area will give way to increasing chances for snow this afternoon and evening, as a strong cold front moves southward through the entire region.
243 AM MST Wed Nov 16 2022 Broad troughing remains anchored across much of the CONUS, with nearly meridional flow aloft. A cold front becomes established just upstream and dips into the northern CWA by late Thursday night, so anticipate enhanced snowfall rates during this time.
430 AM MST Wed Nov 16 2022 Broad troughing remains anchored across much of the CONUS, with nearly meridional flow aloft. A cold front becomes established just upstream and dips into the northern CWA by late Thursday night, so anticipate enhanced snowfall rates during this time.
344 AM CST Wed Nov 16 2022 Below normal conditions will continue today, though we should be slightly warmer than yesterday. The region will remain under upper troughing aloft as a large longwave trough will stay entrenched over the eastern one third to half of the nation. High pressure at the surface will slowly begin to wedge south into the Mid-South and expand across our region through the day. Highs today will reach the lower 50s. While still some 15 degrees below normal, this will at least be a few degrees warmer than yesterday. Readings in the mid 20s are expected roughly along and north of the Highway 82 corridor. This will allow for overnight lows to be warmer and in the lower 30s, with mid 30s in the far southern reaches of the Pine Belt.
721 AM EST Wed Nov 16 2022 Upper trough swings across the area tonight. However, an upper-level trough/low over the Great Lakes will swing southeast across the OH Valley into WV tonight. It remains chilly today with highs expected to be in the upper 30s to low 40s across the lowlands, and 30s along the mountains. Approaching high pressure on Thursday and its resulting warm air advection will cut off lake enhanced moisture at the start of the forecast period.
There may be a little relief on the way this evening, as a weak cool front bridges over the islands later this evening or early Thursday morning and stall over the Florida Straits. The Keys are currently sitting in an area of relatively weak flow, as the ridge in the Western Atlantic gets shunted eastward by the approaching trof in the Gulf. However, the relative humidity in the lower boundary layer (1000-700mb) is around 60 percent, so possible a few small, short lived, low topped showers may develop over the Florida Straits during the day. A weak cold front is expected to traverse the coastal waters late this evening, or early Thursday morning.
A dry cold front will push further to the south today with gusty northeast winds gradually dropping off into this evening. Another dry cold front will cross through the region from the north over the weekend with chilly temperatures and locally gusty northerly winds returning. A dry cold front continues to push southward through Arizona early this morning with gusty northeast winds, especially along and just south of the higher terrain. As the cold front pushes to the south, it should remain dry across the region.
The synoptic picture on Wednesday will be a bit breezy with mainly dry conditions as a 500 mb trough moves across the FA. High temps will range from the upper 30s to lower 40s with lows falling into the lows 20s as strong radiational cooling occurs with clearing skies and calm winds. Otherwise, the rest of the week remains dry as the flow in the mid levels become more zonal behind the departing trough.
Highs are on target to top out in the 40s and lower 50s for most, with upper 30s in the higher terrain and 60s through portions of the Rio Grande Valley in the Big Bend. Of note, however, are the widespread sub-freezing temperatures expected across Central Brewster County as well as in the Chisos Basin.
The cold front that brought light to moderate showers to portions of west central Florida this morning and early afternoon is currently analyzed from Fort Myers to Melbourne, with a broad swath of stratus stretching over most of the region. Tomorrow, as high pressure builds southeastward from the ArkLaTex region, winds will veer northeasterly with no mentionable rain chances through the end of the week. Crisp fall air lingers with highs barely reaching the lower 70s.
This will set up upslope conditions with an upper level trough helping to enhance lift. Expect 1-4 inches of snow in the northern West Virginia mountains, with even some locations in the lowlands possibly seeing a dusting of snow.
This orientation is maintaining west to northwesterly flow across Central Alabama with surface ridging over the Plains extending eastward into the Deep South. Depending on the opacity of the clouds, which is difficult to determine, temperatures may stay warmer than expected and therefore limit frost potential, but opted to provide ample notification nonetheless, especially with even colder temperatures expected tomorrow night.
Updated the pops to keep a chance of precipitation in much of the lowlands today based on current radar trends. However, an upper-level trough/low over the Great Lakes will swing southeast across the OH Valley into WV tonight. It remains chilly today with highs expected to be in the upper 30s to low 40s across the lowlands, and 30s along the mountains. Approaching high pressure on Thursday and its resulting warm air advection will cut off lake enhanced moisture at the start of the forecast period.
(Through tonight ) North winds have picked up behind a weak cold front, which is keeping temps on the cool side this afternoon.
1112 AM CST Wed Nov 16 2022 (Today and tonight) Another day of cooler temperatures and generally clear skies is expected for Wednesday.
a Colder airmass will continue to move in across the southeast with good CAA setting up today and gets reinforced by a dry cold front moving through Thu.
It will drive a robust cold front across the region tmrw night,and in so doing, it too may squeeze out a few flurries from a lowering cloud deck, mainly along our northwest border (swil/semo ozarks).
100 PM EST Wed Nov 16 2022 High pressure will build across the Deep South for the next several days. With a cold front comfortably far offshore, extensive low-level clouds remain across the area. While the original expectation was for temperatures to warm nicely into the 60s, most have lingered in the low to mid 50s. Using a blend of MOS, low temperatures are forecast to range in the low to mid 40s.
MM/25 (Now through Thursday) Very broad upper level troughing persists across the region through Thursday. Highs are struggling to rise today across the region, but expect afternoon temperatures to top out in the lower to middle 50's for most locations.
1000 AM MST Wed Nov 16 2022 Todays anticipated cold front arriving from Canada is nearing Lethbridge. A quiet morning over the area will give way to increasing chances for snow this afternoon and evening, as a strong cold front moves southward through the entire region.
Outside of urban areas, near freezing temperatures are expected in the San Joaquin Valley each morning through the weekend.
234 PM CST Wed Nov 16 2022 18Z surface data has several weak low pressure areas over the Great Lakes with a frontal boundary in the Plains. With temperatures right around freezing any additional accumulations would be a dusting at best.
Overnight lows are expected to be in the low to mid 20s for most of the area. Winds overnight will gradually weaken and shift towards the south briefly before another cold front moves into northern Oklahoma in the late morning/early afternoon. Sunny skies are expected tomorrow, with highs a little bit warmer than the previous few days.
The arctic air and associated cold front has slowed quite a bit from previous forecasts, so the onset of snow and winds will be slow to start as a result.
Forecast challenges include cold frontal timing today and potential for snow along and behind the fropa, as well as blowing snow and ice- induced damage heading into Thursday when strong northwest winds develop. At 3 AM CST, temperatures ranged from the single digits above zero to low teens above zero throughout and west of the Missouri River valley, with readings a bit warmer further east in the region ranging from the mid teens to the low 20s. Other than the cold fropa progged for today into early this evening, today's weather will be relatively benign while high pressure at the surface and fast northerly flow aloft are present.
Inversion conditions will not improve until Thursday when a weak cold front arrives from the north.
Updated the pops to keep a chance of precipitation in much of the lowlands today based on current radar trends. However, an upper-level trough/low over the Great Lakes will swing southeast across the OH Valley into WV tonight. It remains chilly today with highs expected to be in the upper 30s to low 40s across the lowlands, and 30s along the mountains.
Lows for tonight will drop down into the low to mid 20s. With this in mind, cooler high temps are expected across southern IN, with mid 30s possible.
1203 PM CST Wed Nov 16 2022 The upper level trough responsible for yesterday's snow will continue to sit over the Great Lakes and southeastern Canada through the week. Locations in northeast Missouri and west central Illinois will scrape the low 30s for highs. Thursday will be slightly warmer, but will still continue the trend of well below average temperatures. A weak cold front will move through the area Thursday, serving to reinforce the already cold air and provide the potential for flurries to portions of Missouri Thursday night.
214 PM CST Wed Nov 16 2022 A persistent upper low will bring occasional chances for light snow or flurries today through Thursday.
235 PM CST Wed Nov 16 2022 Light snow will continue to fall along a cold front this afternoon into the evening hours from the Red River Valley eastward. As upper level troughing over the northeastern CONUS persists, the northern Plains looks to remain underneath meridional to northwesterly flow aloft. Currently, a cold front situated over the Red River Valley at this time is leading to some light accumulating snow.
1005 AM CST Wed Nov 16 2022 Dry air filtering in upstream of a broad midlevel trough has cleared skies out this morning.
(Through Tonight) High pressure will build from the west through Tonight. High cloudiness will continue to move across region as area is in base of an upper trough.
Issued by National Weather Service Springfield MO 212 PM CST Wed Nov 16 2022 Water Vapor Satellite Imagery shows a well defined upper level low over the northern CONUS. Models depict several areas of energy along an upper level trough progged to push south into the Rockies and Central CONUS tomorrow. An associated cold front is expected to push through the area tomorrow morning and afternoon, which could generate enough ascent for some light sprinkles ahead of the front before switching over to snow flurries behind it.
1149 AM CST Wed Nov 16 2022 (Today through Thursday) Post frontal strong high pressure will continue to build into the region and usher in quite cold air for this time of year.
Mostly clear skies are therefore expected area-wide by dawn on Thursday with low temperatures tonight still several degrees below average with broad surface ridging still in place.
Moisture is limited but expecting some snow flurries for a few hours from the northern plateau to southwest Virginia and the higher eastern Tennessee mountains. Winds will pick up some with this impulse so wind chills will drop below 20 degrees in the north and east and even below ten degrees in the highest elevations. High temperatures will be in the 40s and only 30s higher plateau elevations in the north and elevations above 2500 feet in the higher eastern mountains.
Although road temperatures are in the lower 40s, once air temperatures fall below freezing, we'll see some icy spots develop. A strong short wave rotating around the deep upper low will create substantial boundary layer lift beginning tomorrow.
Cooler than normal temperatures will continue this week across the Inland Northwest. Chilly north winds will accompany the passage of a cold front early Thursday.
Once again max temperatures will be among the highest in the nation (along with mainland Florida) today, topping out around 85 degrees. This is a rather shallow feature resulting from a surface front extending along the eastern seaboard, which is the eastern extent of a high amplitude trough centered over the middle of the country. Since the front will be bridging through the area without any appreciable upper level support, it will lack any moisture or mid- level dynamics to aid convective development. Therefore, other than a few isolated low topped showers along the boundary, precipitation chances will be minimal as the front bridges through.
1131 AM CST Wed Nov 16 2022 Dry air filtering in upstream of a broad midlevel trough has cleared skies out this morning.
/EC/ Below normal conditions will continue today, though we should be slightly warmer than yesterday. The region will remain under upper troughing aloft as a large longwave trough will stay entrenched over the eastern one third to half of the nation. High pressure at the surface will slowly begin to wedge south into the Mid-South and expand across our region through the day. Highs today will reach the lower 50s. While still some 15 degrees below normal, this will at least be a few degrees warmer than yesterday. Readings in the mid 20s are expected roughly along and north of the Highway 82 corridor. This will allow for overnight lows to be warmer and in the lower 30s, with mid 30s in the far southern reaches of the Pine Belt.
Water vapor imagery this afternoon showing an upper trough pivoting into the upper Great Lakes/OH valley region. Meanwhile, a well amplified ridge was anchored just off the western coastline.
Temperatures will be about 10 degrees cooler tonight, in the low/mid 20s as a weak boundary slides through around midnight that brings a few northwesterly wind gusts of 10-15 mph under mostly clear skies.
Much colder temperatures will arrive this weekend, with daytime highs in the low 30s and overnight lows dropping into the teens. Cloud cover breaks up in the south but remains thicker in the north, where there is stronger influence from the upper level low.
1108 AM MST Wed Nov 16 2022 Broad troughing remains anchored across much of the CONUS, with nearly meridional flow aloft. A cold front becomes established just upstream and dips into the northern CWA by late Thursday night, so anticipate enhanced snowfall rates during this time.
Looking ahead to Thursday, a brief return of southwest winds at the surface will allow temperatures to climb into the lower to middle 40s. However, the 40s will be short-lived as clouds build into the region ahead of an approaching cold front.
1136 AM CST Wed Nov 16 2022 (Today through Thursday Night) Large scale upper trof rmnd in place east of the Rockies this mrng, with the flow pattern over the Mid-South primarily zonal.
531 PM CST Wed Nov 16 2022 (Through tonight ) North winds have picked up behind a weak cold front, which is keeping temps on the cool side this afternoon.
The snow will begin to taper off Thursday morning, but could linger into the afternoon hours over and near the higher terrain of North-central Montana.
, Jarbo Gap with 60+ mph gusts earlier), exposed ridgetops, and peaks. In its wake, a narrow yet high-amplitude ridge will center itself over northern California.