Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Still a couple of hours of sunlight to go, so wouldn't be surprised if things get a bit warmer still. Unfortunately this frontal boundary will be pretty weak, so while temps will be cooler tomorrow they won't be that much cooler.
Discussion: Short-lived upper level ridging turning to southwest flow is expected through the short term period. A warm front is located just south of the area this evening and is not expected to move until the morning. The warm front is expected to lift north during day on Sunday as a wave approaches the area.
648 PM EST Sat Dec 25 2021 High pressure surface and aloft will hold over the Florida peninsula through mid week.
712 PM EST Sat Dec 25 2021 Rain will persist through much of Christmas day with the approach/passage of a cold front. Cooler weather will return Saturday night.
A mid-level ridge over the eastern Gulf of Mexico will nudge eastward the next several days.
Weak trough axis has moved into the Rio Grande plains this afternoon providing a weaker pressure gradient along the coast. Stronger low level flow due to the low pressure area moving east across the central plains will lead to more stratus over the coastal plains Sunday night while patchy fog will be possible over the Brush Country during the overnight hours where surface winds will be lighter.
The only exception being coastal Martin County where it will remain in the low 60s. Warmer than normal afternoon temps in the upper 70s to around 80 degrees.
805 PM EST Sat Dec 25 2021 Cooler weather returns tonight behind a cold front, with a dry Sunday thanks to high pressure.
448 PM EST Sat Dec 25 2021 Rain will persist through much of Christmas day with the approach/passage of a cold front. Cooler weather will return Saturday night.
536 PM CST Sat Dec 25 2021 (This evening through Sunday) Critical fire weather concerns will return on Sunday afternoon as high pressure continues to sit across the region.
Our first cold front is making its way into the cwa now, and should clear our southeast counties by mid evening. After record highs in the 70s today, much cooler conditions will prevail overnight with lows down into the 40-45 range. Then a warm front lifts northward Sunday evening, which will keep temperatures steady or even slowly rising through the night. This warm front may kick off a few light showers, primarily across the north half of the region.
Overview: The large scale mid tropospheric pattern will favor a trough to our west the next 7 days.
A few showers are moving into northern portions of the area just ahead of a cold front. ABM Chattanooga Airport, TN 70 57 69 59 73 / 0 0 20 20 40 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 67 53 68 59 71 / 0 0 20 30 50 Oak Ridge, TN 66 52 66 58 70 / 0 10 20 30 50 Tri Cities Airport, TN 62 45 65 53 68 / 10 10 30 40 30.
Tonight Through Monday Fair and dry conditions to prevail across the forecast area through the period as quasi-zonal flow aloft becomes west-southwesterly in response to low pressure developing over the Rocky Mountain states. A weak cold front sagging southward into northern Arkansas on Monday will bring somewhat lower high temperatures over the northern counties as compared to Sunday. Otherwise, temperatures will generally be in the 70s south of the cold front.
224 AM EST Sun Dec 26 2021 Cooler air will push into the region overnight behind a weak cold front. Sunday will be 10 to 15 degrees cooler than Christmas Day, but high temperatures will still be around 10 degrees above normal in most locations. Weak low pressure and a warm front will bring the likelihood of a period of light mixed precipitation or freezing rain on Monday. Still much (10+) degrees above average temps during the day on Sunday as high pressure builds in briefly and provides fairly nice weather for late December. Initially boundary layer could be cold enough to support snow or mixed precip across mainly the northern half of area on Monday, but it will be short lived as warmer air aloft arrives quickly.
156 AM EST Sun Dec 26 2021 A ridge will be over the Gulf Sunday and slowly shift eastward over the course of the week. The ridge weakens and deeper moisture will push into the region, increasing rain chances towards the later half of the week. A strong 500 mb ridge will move eastward across the Gulf of Mexico supporting temperatures well above normal. This will help keep lows mild with overnight temperatures in the lower 50s. The high in the Gulf will continue to move east and over Florida. Temperatures overnight will be similar to the previous night with lows in the low 50s.
High pressure will continue to dominate the weather pattern for the near term with clear skies this morning and again tonight leading to overnight radiational fog development.
Today will be cooler than yesterday, by almost 10 degrees, but we will hold onto temperatures well above normal over the next several days.
1258 AM EST Sun Dec 26 2021 High pressure offshore will bring a prolonged stretch of very warm weather.
Skies will clear Monday night as a cold front moves through, and temperatures will become very cold.
otherwise high pressure nosing southeast from Canada will generally provide fair weather through the end of the Christmas weekend. The main focus will be into early Sunday morning for the chance of freezing drizzle/rain across the North Country. expansive high pressure arching across the Canadian prairies will extend across the Great Lakes region overnight through Sunday night to provide much of the region with fair uneventful weather. Monday brings the next chance for a wintry mix across the area as a low pressure system moves northeast across the Upper Midwest, extending weak warm front across the eastern Great Lakes. Precipitation chances on Monday will decrease as you get closer to Lake Ontario, as the mid-level moisture quickly outpaces the low-level moisture.
For those who like the cooler weather, it looks like we'll have to wait until next year before it returns. Otherwise, quiet and tranquil marine conditions are expected with high pressure in control. Stable air and light winds associated with high pressure currently in control favor low dispersions for the next couple days, along with the potential for patchy fog to develop in the last few hours before and shortly after sunrise. Conditions look otherwise quiet through the day with high pressure in control.
1054 PM CST Sat Dec 25 2021 (This evening through Sunday) Critical fire weather concerns will return on Sunday afternoon as high pressure continues to sit across the region.
Upstream satellite shows decreasing clouds this evening as high pressure moves in from the west. If we're lucky, there could be some sunshine on Sunday before the next warm front approaches from the southwest.
1053 PM CST Sat Dec 25 2021 (The rest of tonight) Cold front is slated to stall out across southern Oklahoma and west-central Arkansas later tonight. Therefore, have lowered min temperatures temperatures slightly across portions of northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas already behind the cold front.
330 AM EST Sun Dec 26 2021 High pressure remains to the south through at least mid week. A cold front with limited moisture will pass through the region Sunday night.
1030 PM CST Sat Dec 25 2021 Difficult terminal forecast period the next 24 hours with uncertainties as it pertains to fog development, just how dense the fog will become and when the fog will scatter out and how long will the low clouds hang around on Sunday. Think we will eventually see low VFR or a scattering out of the lower ceilings sometime Sunday Afternoon.
102 AM EST Sun Dec 26 2021 High pressure and dry today. Warm front Sunday night into Monday. Cold air advection in the low levels will continue to reinforce the stratus deck across the area early this morning. As a high pressure system builds into the area today, clouds will slowly dissipate. MET MOS is 10 degrees cooler as compared to the MAV MOS for afternoon highs at several sites. A warm front will move into the region late Sunday night. There is a chance for a bit of snow to mix in at onset Monday morning across the higher terrain, but accumulations are unlikely.
An essentially zonal flow pattern persists over the area as a broad upper ridge remains over the Gulf and a modest upper ridge axis shifts eastward across the eastern states. Water temperatures in bays and sounds currently range from 59-62F and current surface dewpoints in the lower 60s near the coast will trend to the mid to possibly upper 60s by Monday.
Otherwise, once again, overnight lows trended warmer so adjusted upward where needed.
Conditions look otherwise quiet through the day with high pressure in control.
304 AM EST Sun Dec 26 2021 Short term (Today - Monday): Deep-layered high pressure remains over the region this weekend with drier, cooler air for the remainder of the weekend. Generally dry conditions will prevail though a slow moistening of the lower atmosphere through the period could allow for some short- lived Atlantic sprinkles or patchy overnight/early morning fog to start creeping back into the forecast picture.
(Today and tonight) Another hot and dry day is in store with record high temperatures likely due to a low level thermal ridge and gusty southwest winds in place.
-Period of Freezing Rain Late Sunday Night/Early Monday Guidance has trended toward more freezing rain than snow for the warm advection event late Sunday night. Precipitation then changes to primarily freezing rain at most locations for a few hours with pronounced warm wedge aloft and sub freezing air at the sfc. Current expectation is for sfc temps to be slightly above freezing near and south of the I-96 corridor for the Monday morning commute time, so travel impacts at that time may be limited to just locations north of I-96.
Ridging and southerly winds will help temperatures warm into the upper 70s today and a few spots will even see 80 degrees. Tonight partly cloudy skies will continue with lows only falling into the low to mid 60s.
There, the wind chills will be less of a concern until the evening hours given the low pressure warm sector lifting north during the day today. As low pressure begins to pull away, snow will become less of a concern and wind chills a greater concern.
Unseasonably warm and humid air will continue through the short term as high pressure to the east brings a southerly flow into southeast Texas.
and Monday A weak upper trough could produce a few snow flurries across the far north this morning. Skies will become cloudy during the early evening as a vigorous upper trough approaches from the Central Plains. The snow should end as freezing drizzle or drizzle late tonight or Monday morning as middle level moisture and snow crystals exit the area.
This is coincident with a 750mb jetlet lifting up out of the southwest from the base of the mean trough position. Otherwise, our newly amplified North American pattern will continue to drive unsettled conditions through the week, with a deep mean trough position over the west, a strong ridge from the central Pacific into southwest Alaska, and high pressure downstream over southeastern states. A series of impulses will split down the back side of the trough position and into our area through the coming week, with cooler temperatures, gusty winds at times, and periods of valley rain and mountain snow.
A deep upper trough will continue to bring snow to our forecast area through Monday. Winds today will be gusty, especially in the higher terrain and areas south of the Snake River where gusts of 30-40 mph will occur. Temperatures today will be about 5 degrees colder than yesterday due to colder air arriving with the trough. The upper trough axis will finally swing across our area on Monday, ushering in a colder and drier airmass. A chance of snow showers will continue into Monday afternoon as the trough axis moves overhead before clearing Monday night.
519 AM CST Sun Dec 26 2021 (Today) A warm front will lift quickly north across the area today, with gusty south to southwest winds developing this afternoon. Unseasonably warm temperatures will again occur, which will raise fire weather concerns, especially across western parts of Osage and Pawnee counties where humidity values will be the lowest.
456 AM EST Sun Dec 26 2021 Patchy dense freezing fog will lift this morning followed by increasing clouds.
Short term (Today - Monday): Deep-layered high pressure remains over the region this weekend with drier, cooler air for the remainder of the weekend. Generally dry conditions will prevail though a slow moistening of the lower atmosphere through the period could allow for some short- lived Atlantic sprinkles or patchy overnight/early morning fog to start creeping back into the forecast picture.
Places where the low stratus deck has cleared have been able to radiate and develop some FG/BR. Ridging and southerly winds will help temperatures warm into the upper 70s today and a few spots will even see 80 degrees. Tonight partly cloudy skies will continue with lows only falling into the low to mid 60s.
Numerous showers continue to develop and move onshore into SW Oregon and norCal on the southern end of a cold upper trough digging southward through British Columbia and into Washington. Showers will continue through the day, but will likely increase in number and intensity as the cold upper trough continues to advance southeastward this afternoon and into tonight. The upper trough axis will shift through the area overnight into Monday morning.
633 AM EST Sun Dec 26 2021 Patchy dense freezing fog will lift this morning followed by increasing clouds.
Expect this trend to continue as the current fast-moving disturbance spins around the parent trough and moves through our region today. Winds will easily push 50+ mph across the highest terrain. This morning, most of the low valleys will see precipitation start out as rain, then transition to snow as colder air moves in. Still looking at 5-10 inches in most mountain zones with some of the high elevations approaching 15+ inches. Height sigma charts on the storm track maps keep a deep trough in place across Western NOAM until further notice.
A weak cold front is slowly approaching Memphis and the Tennessee/Mississippi state line where it is expected to stall early today. It will then retreat north as a warm front later this afternoon. Monday evening another cold front approaches from the northwest.
This developing low pressure today will help pull the cold air out of British Columbia and into western Montana. Southerly to southwest winds will persist at the upper levels as the upper level trough moves slowly across the region.
602 AM CST Sun Dec 26 2021 (Today and tonight) Another hot and dry day is in store with record high temperatures likely due to a low level thermal ridge and gusty southwest winds in place.
(Today) A warm front will lift quickly north across the area today, with gusty south to southwest winds developing this afternoon. Unseasonably warm temperatures will again occur, which will raise fire weather concerns, especially across western parts of Osage and Pawnee counties where humidity values will be the lowest.
McD Chattanooga Airport, TN 57 69 60 72 63 / 10 20 20 40 80 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 52 68 59 71 61 / 10 20 30 40 80 Oak Ridge, TN 54 66 58 70 61 / 20 20 30 30 80 Tri Cities Airport, TN 46 66 54 69 56 / 10 20 40 30 60.
It still looks light some light snow accumulations and possibly light ice accumulations are possible near the Michigan line as temperatures fall close to freezing. Low temperatures should be near freezing at Hillsdale, but not as cold to the south and west.
Snow boards this morning are fairly unimpressive but expect travel conditions over the higher passes is not very pleasant. Will be watching the approaching cold front moving over the Wasatch attm. Expect this trend to continue as the current fast-moving disturbance spins around the parent trough and moves through our region today. Winds will easily push 50+ mph across the highest terrain. This morning, most of the low valleys will see precipitation start out as rain, then transition to snow as colder air moves in. Still looking at 5-10 inches in most mountain zones with some of the high elevations approaching 15+ inches. Height sigma charts on the storm track maps keep a deep trough in place across Western NOAM until further notice.
1015 AM EST Sun Dec 26 2021 Warm, and dry conditions continue today as a high pressure system dominates the region. Temperatures this morning were in the mid to upper 50s with a couple locations reaching in the low 60s. Despite the cooler start, temperatures will warm up to above normal temperatures this afternoon, with max temperatures reaching upper 70s to low 80s. (Previous Discussion) High pressure ridge axis is currently across south FL so the dominant wind flow will be offshore.
The forecast area remains in a broad west to southwest upper flow as the upper ridge stays centered to our south.
Meanwhile, cooler waters in the Florida Bay are keeping winds from the northeast. Just above the surface an elongated weak ridge sits across the central Gulf of Mexico. Its weak nature has allowed winds in the lowest 1-4 thousand feet to remain from the east to southeast, despite a building mid and upper level ridge to our west. As we go into the afternoon, the lower level and mid level ridges will move further east and settle closer to our region. A ridge across the Gulf of Mexico, will slide east and back winds to the northeast and east this afternoon.
1239 PM MST Sun Dec 26 2021 Latest satellite and upper air analysis show a trough over the Great Basin with large areas of cloud cover in the flow. At the surface a warm front was moving northward through the forecast area. The strong winds and low relative humidity behind the warm front have created an environment favorable for rapid fire growth. A cold front will be moving through the forecast area accompanied by the weak upper level short wave trough.
Currently, two stubborn stratus decks are limiting heating over the Ms/Al/Fl coast, and also along and north of the Highway 84 corridor. Temperatures in these areas are in the low 70s. Still, with an upper level ridge stretching north along the Mississippi River, temperatures well above seasonal norms are expected, even in the cloudier areas. Guidance continues to advertise advection fog forming along the Ms/Al Gulf coast this evening, then spreading inland overnight, as warmer, upper 60s, low 70 degree air flows over water temps in the low to mid 60s along the Al/Ms coast and upper 50s to low 60 degree water in area coastal bays. The upper ridge remains over the Southeast, with strong subsidence over the forecast area and nearby.
ABM Chattanooga Airport, TN 70 57 69 60 72 / 10 10 20 20 40 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 67 52 68 59 71 / 0 10 20 30 40 Oak Ridge, TN 66 54 66 58 70 / 0 20 20 30 30 Tri Cities Airport, TN 62 46 66 54 69 / 10 10 20 40 30.
A mid-upper high pressure ridge will build over the southeast through Monday, with the high pressure center gradually moving across the Florida peninsula. At the surface, a high pressure will continue to be centered over the Florida peninsula, slowly moving across the state through the day.
315 PM EST Sun Dec 26 2021 High pressure offshore will continue to bring near record warmth for several days.
(The rest of this afternoon thru Monday morning) South to southeast winds have returned to the region as a warm front lifts quickly north across the region, currently lying from central AR northwest across NE OK. Should be a mild night for much of the night until a weak cold front pushes into the region early Monday morning across the north, thus leading to another night of large low temp gradient from south to north across the forecast area. Lacy (Monday afternoon through Sunday) Cooler and drier air pushes in across the north for Monday behind the weak front, while the warm and more humid air remains in the south and east where highs again reach the 70s.
322 PM EST Sun Dec 26 2021 High pressure persists through the evening then transitions as the next warm front crosses late tonight. Unsettled weather will continue to persist through the short term period as mid level waves continue to rotate around a broad longwave trough across the central/western portion of the CONUS.
1141 AM CST Sun Dec 26 2021 (Today and tonight) Another hot and dry day is in store with record high temperatures likely due to a low level thermal ridge and gusty southwest winds in place.
129 PM MST Sun Dec 26 2021 Western NOAM upper trough will shift east as arctic air settles into the region.
Have a wonderful Sunday! Short term (Today - Monday): Deep-layered high pressure remains over the region this weekend with drier, cooler air for the remainder of the weekend. Generally dry conditions will prevail though a slow moistening of the lower atmosphere through the period could allow for some short- lived Atlantic sprinkles or patchy overnight/early morning fog to start creeping back into the forecast picture.
A strong 590 dm mid-upper level ridge of high pressure centered over the Gulf of Mexico will influence the forecast through much of the upcoming week.
Portions of the area near the Highway 82 corridor, and in closer proximity to the stalled frontal boundary, also had reduced visibility this morning from fog. Ridging and southerly winds will help temperatures warm into the upper 70s today and a few spots will even see 80 degrees. Tonight partly cloudy skies will continue with lows only falling into the low to mid 60s.
242 PM EST Sun Dec 26 2021 A low level ridge is in the process of organizing itself as it moves across the Florida Peninsula. At the same time a weak high pressure cell is also trying to get its act together and consolidate across the Sunshine State. The aforementioned low level ridge will organize this evening as a mid and upper level ridge moves across the Gulf of Mexico. The ridge will then shift east through midweek and settle across the western North Atlantic.
1255 PM EST Sun Dec 26 2021 [Through 18Z Monday] VFR conditions will prevail this afternoon with high pressure south of the region. High pressure will continue to dominate the weather pattern for the near term with clear skies this morning and again tonight leading to overnight radiational fog development.
The low pressure currently spinning over the Puget Sound will move east on Monday and as it does flow will turn northwesterly and a little light snow is possible, especially in the mountains.
Mostly clear skies and dry weather will continue through today and tonight as high pressure ridging extending from out of the south remains in place over southeastern Georgia and northeastern Florida. Low temperatures tonight will drop into the mid to upper 50s, with warmer temps occurring along the coastline.
Morning update: isolated to scattered snow showers continue to track across the region as low pressure over the west coast edges inland and disturbances round it. Then the lower cigs continue into Monday even as that dissipates.
Low pressure has been strengthening across the central high plains.
A cold front will move through the area this evening into the overnight period shifting winds first to the west then north by tomorrow morning. This will be short lived as an area of high pressure slides east of the area shifting winds back to a southerly direction by tomorrow afternoon. Low temperatures look to range from around 20 degrees across west central Kansas to around freezing across south central Kansas.
Cold front approaching from the west this afternoon has helped to create some banded snow out ahead of it. o think 5AM ending time Monday still looks good for the High Wind Warnings.
This boundary will continue moving north overnight as southerly winds increase due to pressure falls across the Ohio Valley ahead of the high plains storm system as it moves toward the Great Lakes. A weak surface front near the TN/KY border will move northward tonight as surface pressures fall in response to the low pressure system advancing from the Central Plains toward the Great Lakes.