Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
520 AM CST Mon Jan 3 2022 High pressure in moving overhead this morning, resulting in light/calm surface flow. Clear skies and light surface flow has allowed efficient radiational cooling with temperatures ranging from near zero in northeast Missouri to the low- 20s over southwest Illinois. As we head into the afternoon, high pressure will slide to the east with light southerly return flow behind the departing high. Afternoon temperatures will run 5-10 degrees below normal with highs in the low to mid-30s. The deep layer of dry air will keep skies clear tonight as the axis to a mid-level ridge moves overhead.
635 AM EST Mon Jan 3 2022 Some MVFR cigs can be expected for the next hour or so for all sites except KTPA and KPIE as a cold front moves through the area. /issued 322 AM EST Mon Jan 3 2022/ Early morning IR and water vapor satellite imagery is showing the cold front moving southeast through the Big Bend of Florida, with a narrow band of showers passing along the pre-frontal trough passing through the Tampa Bay area. These showers will continue to work south and gradually dissipate through the next few hours, with breezy northwest and north winds behind the front bringing in much cooler and drier air today and tonight.
For areas north of I-20 in the east and generally north of Tuscaloosa saw a nice snow event as the upper low moves through. Looking at some of the traffic cameras in the northeast downward toward Tuscaloosa, it looks like the roadways are already drying out quickly with the stronger winds currently in place on the backside of the low. Give yourself some extra time, especially if you travel over any elevated bridges. Temperatures will drop into the 20s at most locations, with a few locally cooler location in the upper teens.
/22/ Today and Tonight: early morning water vapor imagery/RAP analysis showed the closed low spinning over north Georgia. The low has moved far enough east this morning to end the wintry precipitation in our CWA but the associated stratocu remained over our CWA just east of the Mississippi river. This back edge of the cloud cover will continue to erode as the closed low moves farther away from our CWA but temperatures were not running as cold as forecast beneath the cloud cover. The wind will become lighter as the high moves over our CWA and despite a decent amount of insolation this afternoon, temperatures will be held well below normal.
429 AM MST Mon Jan 3 2022 Now that the anomalous trough pattern in the West has broken down we can get back to the more normal La Nina pattern this week. Broad ridging has returned to the West according to the 03/00Z hand analysis at H500. This ridge will bulge westward into the EPac as high latitude troughing is forced across the British Columbia coast and through the northern plains/canadian prairies through midweek. The valley inversions however will only strengthen as the warmer air aloft arrives. Snow should begin over the high peaks of the northern Colorado mountains by early afternoon as moisture and cooler air drop across the border under under a split jet aloft. Generally tried to keep temperatures near freezing in the valleys with the newest and deepest snow pack.
Lows will range from the mid 20s to lower 30s, with the cooler readings in low lying and protected areas.
528 AM CST Mon Jan 3 2022 Key Messages: - Warmer temperatures expected today and Tuesday, with southerly winds on Tuesday gusting up to 35 mph at times.
Mid-week should feature dry and warmer conditions with chances of rain, snow, and gusty winds for the end of the week. * Weather Overview: The core of an upper jet bringing very strong winds aloft, associated with a cold, low-pressure system, moves across northern CA and NV today and tonight. Sierra ridge level winds will exceed 100 mph and could peak between 120-150 mph for exposed crest locations in the Lake Tahoe area.
Strong cold front in association with this sys will drive first arctic intrusion of the year swd across the lakes/OH valley with temps falling through the 20s. Low level thermal trough deepens in wake of this sys Thu as heights aloft sharpen in response to secondary wave digging into the OH valley. High pressure edging its way into the area clears out the atmospheric moisture. Southwest winds on the northern side of the high pressure system take over for the northwest winds this morning.
It's been quite an eventful past 6-9 hours, as a deep upper low has passed across the region, bringing widespread precipitation in the form of moderate to heavy snow over much of the area.
/issued 234 AM CST Mon Jan 3 2022/ Progressive low amplitude ridging across western CONUS will gradually flatten over the next day or so becoming zonal with a northwest pitch. As a result, temperatures will not plummet despite mostly clear skies, and will actually be slightly warmer than normal over the extreme southwest Texas Panhandle, which generally has our lower overnight temperatures. With afternoon relative humidity values falling into the lower teens, elevated to near-critical fire weather conditions will be possible.
616 AM CST Mon Jan 3 2022 Main concern for today remains the high temperature forecast. For today, a weak H5 ridge is over the forecast area but with a few pockets of upward motion passing through that flow. Clouds lower and thicken overnight and wind stays up as the low approaches with light snow breaking out over the northwest half of the area by daybreak Tuesday. With a 1046MB high pressing in from the northwest behind the low, and strong cold air advection, gusty winds will become a problem for Tuesday and Tuesday night. Winds where the higher snow amounts are expected, the northeast, support gusts close to 35 mph.
409 AM CST Mon Jan 3 2022 Today and Tonight: early morning water vapor imagery/RAP analysis showed the closed low spinning over north Georgia. The low has moved far enough east this morning to end the wintry precipitation in our CWA but the associated stratocu remained over our CWA just east of the Mississippi river. This back edge of the cloud cover will continue to erode as the closed low moves farther away from our CWA but temperatures were not running as cold as forecast beneath the cloud cover. The wind will become lighter as the high moves over our CWA and despite a decent amount of insolation this afternoon, temperatures will be held well below normal.
The snow is a bit deeper in Iowa where the warmer air will take longer to arrive. Advection fog due to warmer air sweeping north over the remaining snow is possible Monday night.
This will allow the current cold airmass over the region to moderate pretty quickly with the low level flow becoming more S-SE on Tues which will steadily increase the WAA and moisture return over the region. But the rebounding surface dewpoints will likely hold the overnight lows Mon Night above freezing for all of Deep South TX/RGV. The combination of the increasing WAA and plenty of sunshine for Mon and Tues will warm up the high temps nicely through Tues.
221 AM MST Mon Jan 3 2022 The ridge that has brought a temporary end to bitter cold temperatures yesterday will move to the east today. An upper trough moves into western Montana tonight and goes through central and eastern Montana during the day on Tuesday. The system will bring a strong cold front through NE Montana between 09z and 15z Tuesday morning. Arctic high pressure builds into eastern Montana Tuesday Night with temperatures falling to -15 to -25 for lows.
High pressure will pull away from the terminals later today ahead of light SE winds. This ridge will begin departing the region tonight allowing a reprieve from another freeze, although a few locales in our NE counties could still see a brief window of freezing temps. Along with milder temps by Tuesday thanks to southerly winds, modified Gulf moisture will be tugged back into the region, but this moisture will be too shallow and paltry for anything more than a few clouds even as a minor trough passes through in zonal flow.
439 AM CST Mon Jan 3 2022 A couple of relatively milder (not as cold days) before another surge of Arctic air by mid-week! Rather broad/flat ridging aloft will move over the Plains today. Meanwhile, the next upper trof will move into the Pacific Northwest before sliding eastward across the northern Plains on Tuesday. Lee side troughing will result in increasing low level southerly flow today into Tuesday across central and eastern Kansas.
246 AM PST Mon Jan 3 2022 A trough of low pressure may be responsible for light precipitation in Merced and Mariposa Counties Monday night into Tuesday morning.
High pressure with dry and clear conditions will be persistent through the week, resulting in a slow warming trend. Localized freezing temperatures are likely the next couple of mornings before warming up.
912 AM EST Mon Jan 3 2022 A strong area of low pressure will move across the region this morning, causing showers and windy conditions through early afternoon. The low will move to our NE, with clearing skies and cooler and drier air filtering into the region later this afternoon and tonight.
Warmer weather is on tap today with many locations warming 10 to 15 degrees.
339 PM EST Mon Jan 3 2022 Quiet weather will remain in place through the middle of the week with high pressure in control.
Temperatures (overnight minimums generally in the upper 30s/lower 40s) should stay above or well above freezing, especially across the RGV. A few isolated spots in the Northern Ranchlands may drop close to freezing. A warming trend will begin on Tuesday as high pressure continues to move eastward into the Mid-Atlantic region by Tuesday morning, bringing back southeast winds and increasing low-level moisture by Tuesday afternoon. Temperatures will warm up into the low-mid 70s across the district during the afternoon.
Behind this front, strong high pressure will build into the region, with much drier and cooler conditions prevailing. This overall moderating trend continues through the middle part of the week before a weak cold front tries to make its way through the region for the end of the week. Small Craft Advisories remain in effect for the coastal waters behind a passing cold front and these hazardous conditions are expected to hold through the rest of the day before slowly improving starting this evening.
236 PM CST Mon Jan 3 2022 An area of low pressure will move through South Dakota on Tuesday. Ahead of the low, warmer air (seasonable temps) will remain in place. Behind the low, conditions will quickly deteriorate. As the low winds up Tuesday afternoon and enters Iowa/MN, the pressure gradient will tighten to around 20 mb across the state and H85 temps will plummet from the positive single digits to the negative teens. Arctic air in a 1040mb high will follow on the heels of the low Tuesday night. While the winds start picking up, the caa will also help induce snow showers with the low and the upper trough.
It also remained chilly as temperatures so far this afternoon have only risen into the low 30s. Lows will bottom out in the low 20s with some sheltered areas dropping into the upper teens. Southerly flow sets up during the day and could have a little breeze of 10-15 mph with some gusts around 20 mph as the pressure gradient tightens over central KY/southern IN between the high pressure to the east and the developing low to the northwest.
The deep upper low and snow from last night long gone as it is now moving up the east coast.
1240 PM EST Mon Jan 3 2022 Cold conditions will be in place today thanks to high pressure over the area.
241 PM EST Mon Jan 3 2022 High pressure will build across the region tonight, resulting in significantly colder temperatures. The high will drift overhead Tuesday, maintaining a mostly clear sky with light and variable winds.
1033 AM MST Mon Jan 3 2022 Arctic front will slide back into the region this week, as eastern Pac ridging ensues, forcing the downstream trough east. Strong cold front Tues will support adv or even warning level winds for much of the SD plains given strong CAA, pressure rises, esp in the lee of the BH where terrain squeezing will enhanced flow. Have decided to issue a high wind watch for the plains just east of the BH where the highest confidence for warning levels are.
1124 AM CST Mon Jan 3 2022 Key Messages: - Warmer temperatures expected today and Tuesday, with southerly winds on Tuesday gusting up to 35 mph at times.
338 PM EST Mon Jan 3 2022 Strong low pressure will move away from the area this evening as cold high pressure builds into the region for tonight through Tuesday.
North- central WI and cooler central WI locales may fall into the single digits to even around zero, however. Mid/high clouds will increase on Tuesday ahead of the trough with highs reaching the mid 20s to low 30s.
1004 AM CST Mon Jan 3 2022 Have allowed the Freeze Warning to expire, as temperatures have risen above freezing across the warned area. Despite passage of a batch of high level clouds during a portion of the night, enough radiational cooling still occurs to allow overnight temperatures to drop back below freezing for many, with lows in the mid 20s to mid 30s.
On the other hand, some of the high res guidance and some of our more reliable statistical guidance suggests clouds will persist in east MS and perhaps even spread back westward later tonight thanks to a shallow layer of lingering moisture. The models are having an issue resolving the weakening ridge and every other model run seems to produce a shower or two. High pressure builds back into the region at least briefly in this progressive pattern.
Once clearing takes place, clouds should thin during the overnight hours, with decent insolation in place under a warmer southerly flow on Tuesday.
However, with temperatures warming into the 50s this afternoon and southerly winds remaining in the 5 to 10 mph range overnight, lows Tuesday morning should be warmer than this morning, ranging from the upper 20s to the lower 30s. The result will be warmer and slightly more breezy weather with highs from the mid 50s along the Red River to the middle and upper 60s across the far western zones.
(This afternoon through Tuesday night) An upper level trough is over the East Coast and another upper trough is moving over the Pacific Northwest. An upper trough will move over the Northern Plains Tuesday with strong upper level winds at the base of the trough moving over West Texas and Southeast New Mexico. High winds are possible in the Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains so the High Wind Watch remains in effect for late Tuesday morning and Tuesday afternoon.
The highest snowfall totals received attm stretch from Madison County NE into Srn Middle TN, where several locations observed 5-7", which lines up nicely from the Winter Storm Warning that was issued yesterday. This will refreeze any lingering moisture across the area on roadways, which should be confined to elevated roadways/bridges/overpasses. High pressure at the surface that moved into the area yesterday will eventually push E of the CWFA, which will help winds to become more southerly.
Northwest low level flow continues across the area and plentiful low level moisture will likely continue to produce some occasional snow showers in the higher terrain through midday or so. Winds remain elevated through this evening but high pressure builds in tonight for calm winds at KCHA and KTRI. CD Chattanooga Airport, TN 26 50 34 52 34 / 0 0 0 10 20 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 21 46 30 50 31 / 0 0 0 10 20 Oak Ridge, TN 22 46 31 49 30 / 0 0 0 10 20 Tri Cities Airport, TN 14 44 21 47 29 / 0 0 0 0 10.
High pressure with dry and mostly clear conditions will be persistent through the week.
1025 AM MST Mon Jan 3 2022 Now that the anomalous trough pattern in the West has broken down we can get back to the more normal La Nina pattern this week. Broad ridging has returned to the West according to the 03/00Z hand analysis at H500. This ridge will bulge westward into the EPac as high latitude troughing is forced across the British Columbia coast and through the northern plains/canadian prairies through midweek. The valley inversions however will only strengthen as the warmer air aloft arrives. Snow should begin over the high peaks of the northern Colorado mountains by early afternoon as moisture and cooler air drop across the border under under a split jet aloft. Generally tried to keep temperatures near freezing in the valleys with the newest and deepest snow pack.
Our forecast high temps for today were mid to upper 40s for most locations, but temps have thus far remained in the 30s in those areas where the clouds are hanging in there and in the low to mid 40s where the sun has made an appearance.
941 AM PST Mon Jan 3 2022 A trough of low pressure may be responsible for light precipitation in Merced and Mariposa Counties late tonight into early Tuesday morning.
Despites a few lingering flurries, building high pressure will ensure dry weather into Tuesday. High pressure wl maintain dry weather on Tuesday, but with temperature moderation as flow backs to the west aloft, and southwest in the boundary layer.
However, with temperatures warming into the 50s this afternoon and southerly winds remaining in the 5 to 10 mph range overnight, lows Tuesday morning should be warmer than this morning, ranging from the upper 20s to the lower 30s. The result will be warmer and slightly more breezy weather with highs from the mid 50s along the Red River to the middle and upper 60s across the far western zones. The first is an upper low which will move east out of the Dakotas and into the Great Lakes. This low will be accompanied by a strong surface cyclone also located in the Great Lakes region. A cold front will extend southwestward from the Great Lakes low center all the way into Northwest Texas, where it will connect to a second (though weaker) surface cyclone.
Temperatures should be above freezing across most of the Midsouth over by midday after a frigid start.
Lows tonight will be warmer than what we saw this morning due to southerly flow continuing overnight. Went closer to MOS guidance for lows- especially along the I-10 corridor and the northwest Hill Country- where lows will dip into the lower to mid 20s. And due to the passage of a series of cold fronts, our temperatures will swing back and forth as a result.
1040 AM MST Mon Jan 3 2022 18Z TAF CYCLE Strengthening w-nwly flow aloft with sfc lee trough. Warmer weather is on tap today with many locations warming 10 to 15 degrees.
Winds become northwesterly behind the front with drier and cooler air filtering down the peninsula. High pressure builds behind the front with winds already becoming easterly by Tuesday. Noticeably cooler day across South Florida but really temperatures will be near normal for this time of year, but some reprieve from the above normal temp stretch we have had. Instead it will dissipate across central/south Florida or just be pushed back northward as ridging builds in from the south.
High pressure has built in with clear skies and light northerly winds to near calm condtions expected. /issued 326 AM CST Mon Jan 3 2022/ Strong cold and dry air advection has allowed for freezing temperatures across the entire area this morning and is expected again on Tuesday morning. A Hard Freeze continues to be in effect for the northern LA parishes and SW MS counties through 10AM this morning and will likely be reissued for Tuesday morning to account for the second round for freezing conditions. Return moisture flow is expected Tuesday along with warmer air advection as the winds shift to the east.
A couple of relatively milder (not as cold days) before another surge of Arctic air by mid-week! Rather broad/flat ridging aloft will move over the Plains today. Meanwhile, the next upper trof will move into the Pacific Northwest before sliding eastward across the northern Plains on Tuesday. Lee side troughing will result in increasing low level southerly flow today into Tuesday across central and eastern Kansas.
/issued 1101 AM CST Mon Jan 3 2022/ Temperatures should be above freezing across most of the Midsouth over by midday after a frigid start.
Northwest low level flow continues across the area and plentiful low level moisture will likely continue to produce some occasional snow showers in the higher terrain through midday or so. DGS Chattanooga Airport, TN 41 26 50 34 52 / 10 0 0 0 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 37 21 46 30 50 / 30 0 0 0 10 Oak Ridge, TN 39 22 46 31 49 / 20 0 0 0 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 34 14 44 21 47 / 90 0 0 0 0.
1045 AM PST Mon Jan 3 2022 Locally gusty south winds will bring the potential for blowing and drifting snow in parts of southeast Washington and the lower Idaho Panhandle.
The cold front trailing to the southwest of this mid-latitude system pushed through the Florida Keys this morning. Temperatures are in the lower 70s with dewpoints in the lower 60s.
/issued 1035 AM CST Mon Jan 3 2022/ Temperatures finally warming above freezing across most areas as of 10 am this morning. Sfc ridging is located directly ovhd so winds are light which should result in a descent warmup but still on the cool side.
A dry northwest flow aloft over our region will be followed by building high pressure bringing a warming trend with seasonal temperatures returning the second half of the week. A weak trough late in the week could lower temperatures slightly. A trough over the Pacific Northwest is generating some high clouds across our region, but will not produce any other impacts. Forecast remains unchanged, with quiet and warming conditions for the next few days before a weak trough approaches later in the week.
1048 AM EST Mon Jan 3 2022 A cold front is about to push through Key West, accompanied by a broken line of squalls, and followed by cooler, drier, and windier conditions. We highlight slightly higher rain chances for the Lower and Middle Keys as this line erodes and slides southeast. From synopsis, a cold front will push through the coastal waters of the Florida Keys late this morning through early afternoon.
916 AM PST Mon Jan 3 2022 Returning onshore flow will bring cooler days, breezy conditions over the mountains and deserts, and patchy low clouds to temper overnight lows west of the mountains through Tuesday. A weak ridge aloft and offshore flow will return fair, dry, and warmer conditions midweek, with temperatures climbing back above average. Onshore flow increases again to wrap up the week with more clouds, and a return to cooler weather. Expect a sunny, but cooler afternoon west of the mountains as onshore flow strengthens. Farther inland, over the mountains, breezy west winds will develop, but it should be a bit warmer there, and across the deserts.
240 PM EST Mon Jan 3 2022 High pressure will push east across the region tonight into Tuesday. This will lead to dry conditions and somewhat warmer temperatures on Tuesday.
Lows will range from the mid 20s to lower 30s, with the cooler readings in low lying and protected areas. And due to the passage of a series of cold fronts, our temperatures will swing back and forth as a result.
249 PM EST Mon Jan 3 2022 Low pressure moving away from the area with clearing skies, along with colder and drier air filtering into the region tonight.
High pressure is moving over the region, which should help to slowly clear skies through this afternoon.
109 PM EST Mon Jan 3 2022 Low pressure moving away from the area with clearing skies, along with colder and drier air filtering into the region tonight.
1035 AM CST Mon Jan 3 2022 Temperatures finally warming above freezing across most areas as of 10 am this morning. Sfc ridging is located directly ovhd so winds are light which should result in a descent warmup but still on the cool side.
Our upper flow will now flatten over the next day or two while SFC/LL high pressure passes.
An upper level low will pass through North Dakota on Tuesday generating light snow for most of the area. The highest three hour pressure rises look to remain in South Dakota and nudge into southern North Dakota, thus the strongest winds are likely to remain in the southwest and south central parts of the state.
A trough of low pressure may be responsible for light precipitation in Merced and Mariposa Counties late tonight into early Tuesday morning.