Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Further east across W AR the lower ceilings will hold off until later Saturday and more uncertainty exists regarding potential for ceilings to drop into MVFR levels. The result should be warmer temperatures tonight with lows in the 40s for most locations. south to southeasterly winds 5-15 mph will be possible during the night with the higher winds forecast underneath the cloud cover over parts of Eastern Oklahoma. have adjusted sky grids for timing of the low level clouds spreading into the CWA as well as adding the ongoing high cirrus.
402 AM EST Sat Nov 11 2017 Strong high pressure centered over the Great Lakes will move into New England by this evening which will strengthen the wedge over the CWA.
356 AM EST Sat Nov 11 2017 Arctic high pressure will extend across the eastern United States through Sunday.
For the most part, the highest radar returns have already moved east of the forecast area, so additional accumulation appears minimal. There may be some light freezing drizzle or rain with the loss of ice aloft as precipitation diminishes later this morning, but impacts should be minor given isolated coverage. Thermal profiles show an isothermal layer near freezing developing from the surface to around 800 hPa and with ice aloft, precipitation type should transition to a rain/snow mix.
will continue to ridge all the way to the Gulf of Mexico. These clouds will keep afternoon temps a little cooler than yesterday.
340 AM EST Sat Nov 11 2017 Dry Canadian high pressure over the eastern half of the country will move offshore tonight.
Some minor moisture return was occurring over the southwestern portions of the forecast area, enough so that overnight low temperatures will likely be slightly warmer than earlier expected over portions of the forecast area.
Forecast soundings and latest IR imagery shows drying aloft which may lead to some light freezing drizzle in spots as the precipitation ends.
100 AM EST Sat Nov 11 2017 Dry Canadian high pressure over the eastern half of the country will move offshore Saturday night.
For the next several days, high pressure systems and cold fronts are going to take turns crossing Indiana. This process will start with high pressure over our state. The first cold front should arrive Sunday.
Ridging aloft continues with weak return southerly winds limiting the warming trend and keeping temperatures about the same as Saturday. Surface lee troughing will aid in more mixing and also with a moderating airmass to produce a slightly more mild night than Saturday night.
344 AM EST Sat Nov 11 2017 High pressure across the Great Lakes will move east off the New England coast Saturday night. This will allow weak a low pressure system to cross the Ohio Valley Sunday afternoon and Sunday night.
Meanwhile, stratus spans much of the lower elevations and looks to stay put overnight, aside for the LC valley in southeast WA.
A weak cold front will move into the Panhandles Saturday afternoon. A cold front Saturday afternoon and evening will bring temperatures down overnight and keep highs in the 50s on Sunday.
For 06Z Aviation discussion below Surface analysis this afternoon shows the center of high pressure over the Great Lakes while a low pressure center is getting organized over southern Saskatchewan province, including a front sagging south over eastern MT/WY. Aloft, a small ridge axis over the MN/WI border is continuing to shift east while a compact upper level low atop the aforementioned surface feature rotates eastward. Fairly deep moisture in advance of the low and on the backside of the ridge has kept cloud cover in place all day and the clouds will stay tonight through much of tomorrow as the front to the west slowly approaches.
So have raised temps a few degrees from the middle 30s to the lower 40s. /17/ Prior discussion below: No changes needed other than an adjustment to the low temperature for our location tonight. When winds are out the northeast, the temperature tends to remain a little warmer due to our surrounding topography. The high center will push off to the east on Saturday allowing winds to become more southeasterly.
1034 PM MST Fri Nov 10 2017 Flow has begun to turn southwesterly this afternoon as a weakening trough heads eastward into the Great Basin. This trough will continue to deamplify as it skirts to the north of the Wyoming border on Saturday morning. Precipitation will be limited to the higher elevations above 8000 feet, beginning after sunrise and ending in the mid-afternoon hours Saturday. Temperatures drop back by a few degrees on Saturday as the trough axis passes, but will still remain above average for the second week of November.
1242 AM EST Sat Nov 11 2017 High pressure should maintain dry and cold weather through Saturday. Rain chances return late Sunday with low pressure. High pressure should maintain dry weather tonight. High pressure moving east of the upper Ohio valley on Sat will lead to return flow/warm advection late in the day, but will still see forecast highs ~10 degrees below average. What meager moisture remains with this Pacific-origin wave will spread some light rain across the area late Sun, perhaps lingering across the high terrain into Mon morning. Dry weather is expected Tue under high pressure. Building high pressure will ensure VFR and light wind for tonight and Saturday.
The low clouds could be stubborn to completely erode come Sunday with daytime highs expected to remain below normal for this time of the year.
Upper level ridge building over the area has decreased the showers. With the high pressure ridge, conditions should improve by 18z at all sites. Scattered showers will continue across mainly Oregon this evening as upper level low pressure system continues to weaken and move east into Idaho. Patchy fog will continue across the lower elevations, with some patchy dense fog persisting at Walla Walla. Mild and drier conditions for most of the area Saturday as a weak ridge passed through. The mild conditions will persist through Sunday as southwest flow increases ahead of the next low pressure system.
Temperatures will remain above freezing in most locations, the exception being northeast Colorado where freezing fog will be possible. SREF ceiling probabilities show <3000ft persisting in eastern half through the afternoon, so leaned towards cooler guidance for high temperatures in the east, but warmed it up in the west where clouds should clear after 18z.
300 AM CST Sat Nov 11 2017 Light snow across northwest Minnesota associated with an upper level low propagating eastward across southern Canada will exit during the morning hours. As the system passes to the east, winds will become northwest with the passage of a cold front.
Within this flow, a series of fast- moving upper trofs with varying amplitudes are forecast to impact the region. The first of these upper trofs will be moving into the MS Valley early Sunday and amplifying through the day as the trof digs east into the western OH Valley. There are some timing differences related to the detail of the trof structure due to positioning of vorticity maxima within the trof. The majority of the precipitation/rain will be pre-frontal, and in the wake of the cold frontal passage there will be extensive stratus and maybe a bit of drizzle.
339 AM EST Sat Nov 11 2017 High pressure will bring dry weather today. A low pressure area will then track across the area Sunday, bringing showers.
333 AM EST Sat Nov 11 2017 Arctic high pressure will bring below normal temperatures through the weekend.
1207 AM EST Sat Nov 11 2017 High pressure should maintain dry and cold weather through Saturday. Rain chances return late Sunday with low pressure. High pressure should maintain dry weather tonight. High pressure moving east of the upper Ohio valley Saturday will allow return flow and warm advection late in the day, which will still put forecast highs nearly 15 degrees below normal.
1147 PM EST Fri Nov 10 2017 High pressure will build southeast into our region tonight into Saturday. Temperatures have already dropped below freezing across the mountains and areas east of the Blue Ridge will soon follow. Freezing warning remains in effect for areas east of the Blue Ridge. The ridge aloft will continue to control our weather Saturday. Expect a wedge of high pressure Saturday night into Sunday with gradual increasing clouds as upstream front and low pressure move over the Missouri/Arkansas area.
245 AM CST Sat Nov 11 2017 Pressure gradient tightens somewhat today as high pressure slides east of the area. An upper level disturbance and cold front will then push towards the area late in the day, and as atmosphere saturates, could see some drizzle/light rain develop over southeast Kansas and western Missouri. On Sunday, front pushes away from the area with high pressure building southward into the region in the afternoon.
No significant changes as high pressure continues to dominate the weather. Tightening pressure gradients due to a trough passing well north of the state are responsible for the gusty winds.
Sunrise temperatures may dip into the upper 20s at the coolest locations but most of the Midsouth will be in the low to middle 30s. A weak cold front will move quickly across the Midsouth Sunday. Temperatures will be maybe a degree or two cooler tomorrow than today. but skies will be cloudy and north wind will return by the afternoon hours making it feel a bit cooler.
While many other areas will be in the mid to upper 30s, the wind chills from the strengthening pressure gradient will make it feel like the freezing mark for much of the CWA (even the low 20s for the mountains). Clouds should keep temps a bit warmer than tonight. Consensus on fcst wetbulb temps in the far NE also keep things above freezing so for now it looks to be too warm for any frozen precip concern. This will make for a dreary and cool Sunday with spotty light showers/drizzle and high temperatures struggling to reach the low- to-mid 50s for much of the area. Given current forecast temperatures and timing for onset of any light showers, freezing precipitation is not expected to be a concern.
Sunday morning a cold front drops south into the area and weak cold air advection combined with clouds developing behind the front will keep highs around 15 degrees cooler than today.
A mid level trough axis will pass across northern CO this afternoon as the system passes across eastern MT/WY. Isolated to scattered snow showers will be possible primarily in zones 31 and 33 this afternoon, then increasing mid level subsidence will develop tonight as the system exits and an upper level ridge moves into the Rocky Mountain region. It will be cooler Sunday behind a cold front.
Fairly extensive mid-high level cloudiness today should temper the low level warm air advection some, though still looking for temps to gradually rebound into the mid-upper 30s by later this afternoon. System is moisture starved in the low levels and will be relying on ascent and top-down saturation to saturate the low levels sufficiently for precipitation to reach the ground.
Stratus and drizzle will be slow to erode after sunrise Saturday, but veering winds ahead of an approaching weak cold front should at least encourage ceilings to climb a bit, and visibility to improve by midday. Winds will trend northerly at 10-20 mph by 6 pm as the next cold front sags into SW KS.
351 AM EST Sat Nov 11 2017 A sprawling high pressure system centered to our northeast will weaken and drift away from the area, allowing warm air advection today. Despite a chilly start, a steep early morning inversion will allow for much warmer conditions than yesterday once heating and mixing occur. It will support a weak cold front at the surface, reaching from Ohio to West Tennessee by Sunday evening. Models are not all in agreement on the light precip pattern, but a blend supports highest amounts in our northwest counties, and the highest POP will be placed there.
A substantial low pressure system will drop south through the Gulf of Alaska to the PNW coast on Sunday setting the stage for another increase in southwesterly flow Sunday afternoon.
Global models are in agreement in showing the trough not amplified enough to get any Pacific storms into Southern California.
Had a few light freezing sprinkles earlier this evening at ABR. The region is sandwiched between high pressure to the east and low pressure to the west creating a 13 mb pressure difference over this cwa and resulting in south to southeast winds of 20 to 35 mph. Warm air advection pushes in behind the winds in a weak trough of low pressure. Additionally, wet bulb effects means the freezing level will fall to about 2kft, so anticipate this may be little more than some sprinkles.
Colder than normal temperatures will persist through Saturday night and Sunday as dry high pressure builds through from west to east.
338 AM CST Sat Nov 11 2017 Latest Rap and Satellite imagery showed westerly flow aloft with mid to upper ridging and a large amplified low level ridge over the Lower Mississippi Valley. Readings prior to dawn were from the upper 30s to the lower 40s. Lows for tonight will be somewhat below normal with readings from the upper 30s to the lower 40s. Any precipitation will be in and out quickly with high pressure at the surface filtering back into the region.
This should lead to the development of drizzle and patchy fog, with dew points surging back into the low to mid 60s, along the escarpment edge and into the Hill Country late this evening and overnight and continuing through Sunday morning.
The obvious consequence of this uncertainty revolves around the high temperature forecast with MOS holding about a 7-10 degree spread for much of the area between the cooler and cloudier MET and the warmer and clearer MAV. However, southwest surface winds should be pretty efficient in warming temperatures once sunshine arrives, so will swing highs toward the warmer MAV, essentially meeting in the middle. Moving onto Sunday, its forecast is complicated by the arrival of a cold front late tonight.
344 AM CST Sat Nov 11 2017 (Today and Tonight) Another cloudy day upcoming for West Central Texas, as continued low level moisture advection keeps the low clouds in place. Highs today will range from the upper 60s across the Heartland to the lower 70s across the western Concho Valley.
1255 AM EST Sat Nov 11 2017 High pressure will build in from the west tonight through Saturday and will shift east of the region Saturday night and Sunday.
A weak cold front will push to the southwest through New Mexico and west Texas late tonight and early Sunday with easterly winds behind the boundary advecting cooler Canadian air into the CWA.
250 AM EST Sat Nov 11 2017 High pressure through tonight. Another cold front mid week. High pressure will remain in control today. However, overnight lows tonight will be warmer than what we saw this morning, but usual cold spots should still radiate out rather quickly after sunset this evening. Dry weather will continue through the weekend courtesy of high pressure.
Surface analysis this evening places a ridge of high pressure centered over Lower Michigan. /issued 234 PM CST Fri Nov 10 2017/ Another chilly night is expected across the Mid-South as high pressure settles over the region. High pressure will shift east on Saturday allowing for surface winds to change to the south. A cold front will then move into the Mid-South on Sunday.
400 AM EST Sat Nov 11 2017 Arctic high pressure will extend across the eastern United States through Sunday.
Precip associated with the low has moved well east of the area.
1118 PM MST Fri Nov 10 2017 Upper trof currently over the Pac NW will quickly advance into the Northern Plains on Saturday. Moisture will be scant, but a few rain/snow showers possible with the trof.
Isolated to scattered patches of light rain are expected to prevail in the wake of the dissipating inverted trough during the weekend.
1130 PM CST Fri Nov 10 2017 All sites currently have IFR ceilings and the low stratus will stick around through mid morning. /issued 301 PM CST Fri Nov 10 2017/ Upper flow aloft will remain fairly zonal through the week ahead with an upper level ridge parked to the south of the region. Surface lee cyclogenesis will develop leading to breezy southwest winds and warmer temperatures with a quicker exit to the anticipated low stratus and fog.
/17/ No changes needed other than an adjustment to the low temperature for our location tonight. When winds are out the northeast, the temperature tends to remain a little warmer due to our surrounding topography. The high center will push off to the east on Saturday allowing winds to become more southeasterly.
258 AM CST Sat Nov 11 2017 High pressure over the Appalachian Mountains early this morning is bringing the season's first hard freeze to some areas. The high will move east to the Atlantic Seaboard late today, causing winds to turn southeast. Despite the milder southeast flow, widespread high cloudiness and the low November sun angle will limit highs to the upper 40s and lower 50s today. Some light rain will spread east across Missouri and Illinois, possibly reaching the lower Ohio Valley around sunrise. A weak cold front will pass through during the afternoon and early evening.
Notable differences in models emerge by Sunday morning as NAM is an outlier in faster frontal passage, and as a result dries the low levels out quicker.
As the high begins to shift further away, an area of mid-level clouds currently in place from Kansas City northward will spill E/NE into parts of central Illinois. Low temperatures will be slightly warmer than last night. with readings dropping into the lower to middle 20s. As winds veer to the SE on the back side of the departing high, moderating temperatures will continue on Saturday as afternoon highs top out in the lower to middle 40s. Forecast soundings have trended slightly cooler than previously seen: however, with a 6000-foot thick above freezing warm layer, surface temps in the middle 30s, and boundary layer wet bulb temps above freezing.
Temperatures look to warm into the low to mid 30s, with most of the forecast area rising above freezing for at least an hour or two.
There will be a possible thunderstorm or two well offshore but that may not occur until Sunday and Sunday night when the northern jet stream moves in and helps cause some divergent air above the weak baroclinic trough axis left behind from the easterly wave.
Warmer air will move northward in response to this southerly flow, thus lows will be warmer tonight and highs will be warmer tomorrow. In response, low-level warm and moisture advection will commence ahead of a surface cold front moving across the Central Plains. The moisture will not be overly deep (around 10,000 feet), but lift within the low levels should be enough to promote light showers (or even areas of drizzle) Saturday night into Sunday morning.
The consensus short guidance has continued to trend upward with each run and we believe that its catching up on the high cirrus moving overhead. This afternoon has been rather brisk as a strong 1040mb high over the Great Lakes has been pumping cold, Canadian air into the lower Ohio Valley. Surface obs reveal temperatures in the low to mid 40s across south central KY, while southern IN and northern KY are in the upper 30s to low 40s. Upper level flow becomes quasi-zonal tomorrow, and we'll see some warmer air advect in from the west. Weak cold front will approach the region Sunday. A weakness in the ridge to our NE will move into KY around midday Sat, allowing winds to come around to the SE or even south, but remain at or below 6 kt.
Building upper ridge over the Rockies will edge eastward during the first part of the week.
Thankfully, temperatures will remain well above freezing so no icing is expected.
MVFR ceilings have persisted over the Brush Country while VFR ceilings occur over eastern areas as some drier air in the lower levels over the coastal plains.
After a dry day today, a low pressure system will bring rain to central Indiana on Sunday. Mid and high clouds will continue today well ahead of a developing low pressure to the west.
Zooming out, the synoptic pattern features zonal flow aloft with an active northern stream and subtropical ridging over the southern third of the CONUS. A broad upper level wave will swing into the northern Plains today, with surface ridging extending from New York to the Carolinas. A weakness on the SW side of this ridge will allow winds to veer southeast or even southerly today. Higher theta e air will continue to advect into the region this evening and overnight ahead of a weak low pressure system. Low pressure exits off to the east Sunday night, with ridging building back in quickly.
112 AM EST Sat Nov 11 2017 High pressure will keep tonight dry and cold with lows in the upper teens to lower 20s. Saturday will be slightly warmer with highs in the upper 30s to lower 40s, along with a little more cloud cover. Temperatures will then trend warmer into the work week. Primary focus on lowered temperatures overnight with low level thermal trof aligned north/south through western half lower Michigan into northeast Indiana.
Upper ridging will be in place over the Rockies to start the work week. Both the operational models and their ensembles continue to suggest deep troughing off the Pacific NW coast will continue to get reinforced through mid week.
Moistening low levels may ultimately result in patchy light drizzle into eastern OK this afternoon, with clouds keeping temps several degrees cooler compared to yesterday despite increasing south winds. Some clearing possible Sunday afternoon and temps in some area will be a bit warmer despite frontal passage.
133 AM CST Sat Nov 11 2017 Surface map this morning shows a ridge of high pressure situated just to our north and west. Winds are finally diminishing and high clouds are streaming across the mid state, but temperatures are already down to freezing or close to freezing at most locations. The ridge will slip past during the next few hours, setting up return flow and warmer temperatures today.
142 AM EST Sat Nov 11 2017 Arctic high pressure will extend across the eastern United States through Sunday.
Despite the passage of the cold front Saturday night, Sunday should be a few degrees warmer thanks to clear skies.
1002 PM CST Fri Nov 10 2017 Clouds have been increasing across the northwestern counties as the trough axis approaches, and some flurries have started at Rolla. Colder than normal temperatures will persist through Saturday night and Sunday as dry high pressure builds through from west to east.
As the ridge loses its influence, some low to mid level cloudiness ahead of a short wave, is working into portions of Southeast Texas, with temperatures rising a few degrees into the mid 50s as the cloud deck moves in. Meanwhile, an inverted trough feature will move from the eastern Gulf of Mexico to Southeast Louisiana. Looks like the majority of the moisture associated with the inverted trough will stay east of the forecast area before the front arrives and pushes moisture well out into the Gulf.
1215 AM EST Sat Nov 11 2017 High pressure through Saturday night. Another cold front mid week. A relatively dry atmosphere in place over the forecast area with weak 5h ridge at the mid levels. As NW flow kicks in behind the trough axis, will transition to more upslope type showers.
Maximum temperatures will reach the low 80s along the east coast metro and interior, and mid 80s further west.
239 AM EST Sat Nov 11 2017 High pressure through tonight. Another cold front mid week. A relatively dry atmosphere in place over the forecast area with weak 5h ridge at the mid levels. Dry weather will continue through the weekend courtesy of high pressure.