Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Barnes Previous Discussion: /Through Thursday/ Subsidence beneath a mid-level ridge will continue to keep quiet weather in place today. A backdoor cold front will slide into the region early Thursday morning as a result of the large-scale flow induced by Hurricane Ian.
Broken record forecast continues today with scattered convection associated with the deep ern CONUS trough that has been over the region the past couple days. The mentioned trough will finally exit NE over the course of the day with mainly dry conditions after 00Z as high pressure builds in from the west. Cloud cover will continue overnight with a more moist north to northeast flow which will keep cloud cover over the area a bit longer keeping low temperatures overnight a bit warmer than what might have been in northeast flow.
Looking aloft, deep upper troughing will continue to slowly shift east towards the Atlantic Coast today. At the surface, strong high pressure will build in across the Upper MidWest and western Great Lakes region. This set up will result in dry and slightly cooler conditions across the forecast area with highs in the 70s. Interaction from high pressure over the Great Lakes on Thursday and Hurricane Ian will result in a tightening pressure gradient across the area on Thursday.
(Today through Thursday) Currently, the lowest dewpoints are in the Ranchlands. Ridge will dominate the Central Plains through the Short Term period helping us to sustain our rain-free and sunny weather over the next couple of days. Highs will be in the lower 90s today and tomorrow with lows in the mid 60s.
626 AM CDT Wed Sep 28 2022 Today and Tonight: Early morning satellite imagery showed the circulation around a large upper level trough over the eastern CONUS that will lift out to the northeast through the period. The strong gusty winds combined with the low relative humidities will result in a significant threat of wildfires today. Warmest temperatures are expected in the west and will be near normal in the lower 80s while much of our eastern zones will not make it out of the 70s. Under clear skies and a light northeast wind, radiational cooling of our dry airmass will lead to cooler than normal morning lows in the upper 40s to lower 50s.
These clouds brought some very light rain amounts to the higher terrain along the coast, but little else. 30" of rain along the higher terrain at the coast and in northwest Douglas County. The big concern for this fire will be the south winds that will continue tonight before shifting to be from the west tomorrow morning with the trough passage.
Moisture will continue to linger across the area through the rest of the week, with slight chances of showers and storms that will favor the high terrain generally south and east of the Phoenix area. Although temperatures are expected to remain above average, an upper level trough entering the Pacific Northwest this morning will aid in slightly cooling temperatures across the area over the next several days as this trough advances east-southeastward. These cooler temperatures are resulting in only a Moderate HeatRisk for areas across western Imperial County, while everywhere else is generally under Minor HeatRisk during this time period.
410 AM MDT Wed Sep 28 2022 Water vapor shows large scale ridge extending through the Northern Rockies into the Northern Plains, with upper low a bit offshore the Pac NW. At the surface, a rather tight pressure gradient is in place between the ridge over the Upper Midwest and the lee trof extending through central MT/WY. Clear skies overhead early this morning with some gusty south/southeast winds, especially along the Pine Ridge, due to a low level jet. Very warm temperatures are expected the next couple days with thermal ridge moving overhead. Gusty southerly winds today on the plains of western SD will shift more into central SD on Thursday as lee trof advances eastward towards the western Dakotas.
424 AM MDT Wed Sep 28 2022 The short term period is expected to largely remain dry and warm under the influence of an upper level ridge. For today, temperatures are forecasted to be slightly cooler than yesterday with highs near 80 with higher surface pressure over the area.
623 AM CDT Wed Sep 28 2022 (Today through Thursday) Currently, the lowest dewpoints are in the Ranchlands. Ridge will dominate the Central Plains through the Short Term period helping us to sustain our rain-free and sunny weather over the next couple of days. Highs will be in the lower 90s today and tomorrow with lows in the mid 60s.
404 AM MDT Wed Sep 28 2022 The short term period is expected to largely remain dry and warm under the influence of an upper level ridge. For today, temperatures are forecasted to be slightly cooler than yesterday with highs near 80 with higher surface pressure over the area.
605 AM EDT Wed Sep 28 2022 (Today and tonight) Winds will increase across the area today as the pressure gradient tightens between high pressure north of the area and Hurricane Ian to our southeast.
(Today through Thursday) Expect the CWA to remain under the influence of an upper level ridge during the period (ECMWF/GFS/NAM deterministic runs), along with dry conditions (PWAT values below normal per NAM/GFS deterministic runs).
(Issued 332 AM CDT Wed Sep 28 2022) Today through Thursday: The lakeshore areas will see more clouds today than inland areas due to lingering moisture from the low that is very slow to exit. Brisk northerly winds will gradually diminish this afternoon as high pressure moves in. Temperatures are expected to be similar or a little cooler than yesterday, despite sunshine, thanks to the weak cold air advection we had overnight. As skies clear and winds become calm with high pressure overhead tonight, look for temperatures to drop quickly for inland areas.
314 AM MDT Wed Sep 28 2022 Broad ridge of high pressure aloft over region with a subtle weak wave moving across eastern Colorado. High temperatures today well into the lower to middle 80s across the plains.
628 AM CDT Wed Sep 28 2022 Wide ranging temps this hour under the high pressure and light wind regime. Will see southeast winds continue to increase this morning as pressure gradient tightens with departing high pressure. Departing high pressure which is responsible for the frost and freeze headlines this morning will exit to the southeast with southeast winds and return flow steadily increasing today. Minnesota lakes and forests will see less wind and cooler temps limiting the fire weather concerns to the valley. Those southerly winds persist into the overnight and Thursday as 500mb ridging lifts into the northern plains. This mixing and warm air advection will help temps stay in the 40s overnight with highs on Thursday in the low 70s for the valley and west and upper 60s for MN lakes and forests.
627 AM CDT Wed Sep 28 2022 (Today through Thursday) Expect the CWA to remain under the influence of an upper level ridge during the period (ECMWF/GFS/NAM deterministic runs), along with dry conditions (PWAT values below normal per NAM/GFS deterministic runs).
319 AM MDT Wed Sep 28 2022 The short term period is expected to largely remain dry and warm under the influence of an upper level ridge. For today, temperatures are forecasted to be slightly cooler than yesterday with highs near 80 with higher surface pressure over the area.
702 AM CDT Wed Sep 28 2022 (Today through Thursday) Another dry cold front has moved through the area, bringing continued CAA and drier air to the mid state today. Northeast winds around 10 to 15 mph and gusts to around 25 mph will mix the low levels well, and bring in drier air to the surface, but the cooler highs should keep min RH values around 30 percent or higher for the eastern half. Slightly warmer temps in the east and south will drive min RH values to around 20 to 25 percent, and marginal fire danger conditions will be in place.
406 AM CDT Wed Sep 28 2022 Today and Tonight: Early morning satellite imagery showed the circulation around a large upper level trough over the eastern CONUS that will lift out to the northeast through the period. The strong gusty winds combined with the low relative humidities will result in a significant threat of wildfires today. Warmest temperatures are expected in the west and will be near normal in the lower 80s while much of our eastern zones will not make it out of the 70s. Under clear skies and a light northeast wind, radiational cooling of our dry airmass will lead to cooler than normal morning lows in the upper 40s to lower 50s.
Predawn readings ranged fm the fm the 50s to the lower 60s.
Temperatures will trend cooler the next couple day, though still remain above normal. As an upper level low approaches from the Pacific NW today, warm southwesterly flow will set up across northern and portions of central NV resulting in gusty winds along with continued above normal afternoon high temperatures. Tonight the closed low will push inland before setting up over Idaho on Thursday, at which time northwesterly flow aloft will advect cooler air into northern NV. Most valley locations across northern NV this afternoon will have highs in the low to mid 80s, with a drop of around 10 degrees on Thursday.
631 AM CDT Wed Sep 28 2022 (Today through Thursday afternoon) Upper ridge centered over the region again today, as one trough swings across the NE US another one arrives on the NW coast. This 2nd trough will flatten the ridge as it moves inland Thursday.
This feature will be pushed to the east as a large high pressure system over Wisconsin slowly tracks towards Michigan by Thursday morning.
/CRJ/ Today and Tonight: Early morning satellite imagery showed the circulation around a large upper level trough over the eastern CONUS that will lift out to the northeast through the period. The strong gusty winds combined with the low relative humidities will result in a significant threat of wildfires today. Warmest temperatures are expected in the west and will be near normal in the lower 80s while much of our eastern zones will not make it out of the 70s. Under clear skies and a light northeast wind, radiational cooling of our dry airmass will lead to cooler than normal morning lows in the upper 40s to lower 50s.
359 AM MDT Wed Sep 28 2022 Key Messages: 1) Isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms over and near the higher terrain this afternoon. Additional weak energy to traverse the flow today with afternoon shower/thunderstorm development expected this afternoon over the higher terrain. In this location, flow across the Raton Mesa along with lee troughing and low/mid level convergence will support widely scattered thunderstorm development.
Warmer and drier conditions will then develop across the region during the second half of the week. An occluded surface cyclone is forecast to progress east across the NERN PAC today.
A slightly cooler airmass advected across the local area overnight from the east behind a backdoor cold front which should keep afternoon high temperatures roughly 5-7 degrees below yesterdays highs. high pressure will slide across the local area over the next few days. which should keep any precipitation chances at bay and allow temperatures to climb back into the lower 80s for the end of the week and through the upcoming weekend. With these warmer temperatures and breezy winds. long range models continue to show the upper level trough currently off the Pacific northwest slowly tracking across the northern Rockies late in the weekend.
543 AM MDT Wed Sep 28 2022 Broad ridge of high pressure aloft over region with a subtle weak wave moving across eastern Colorado. High temperatures today well into the lower to middle 80s across the plains.
410 AM CDT Wed Sep 28 2022 A slightly cooler airmass advected across the local area overnight from the east behind a backdoor cold front which should keep afternoon high temperatures roughly 5-7 degrees below yesterdays highs. high pressure will slide across the local area over the next few days. which should keep any precipitation chances at bay and allow temperatures to climb back into the lower 80s for the end of the week and through the upcoming weekend. With these warmer temperatures and breezy winds. long range models continue to show the upper level trough currently off the Pacific northwest slowly tracking across the northern Rockies late in the weekend.
1044 AM EDT Wed Sep 28 2022 Upper level trough and cold temperatures aloft will lead clouds with scattered showers mainly across the Great Lake today. This high will slowly drift east across the Great Lakes through the end of the week resulting in dry weather. Mean long wave trof continues from the Great Lakes through New England. Clouds and a northerly wind will keep high temperatures cool today, ranging from the upper 50s north to the lower 60s south. Lows will drop once again to the lower 40s, with mid 40s expected in urban areas. Highs will still be below normal but warmer than today. They should range within 3 degrees or so of 65, cooler to the north and warmer to the south.
612 AM CDT Wed Sep 28 2022 (Today through Thursday) A mid level ridge remains centered over the southern plains with lower level ridging remains centered off to our northeast. A few of the normally cooler low lying spots in the Hill Country to along the Escarpment may briefly fall into the upper 40s around sunrise.
A little more consistent southerly winds will keep overnight lows up in the low to mid 60s across the Big Country, but farther south readings will drop to around 60. A few upper 50s again possible where some cold air drainage can occur in some of the low lying areas and river valleys.
(Tonight through Thursday night) Upper level high pressure system continues in control across the Rockies and Southern Plains. At the surface, a ridge of high pressure is forecast to dominate the local area through the short term period. Therefore, expect another cooler night with lows in the mid 50s across the Hill Country, lower 60s along I-35 corridor and mid 60s along the Rio Grande. Therefore, Thursday's overnight lows are forecast to be even cooler with some spots getting to the lower 50s across the Hill Country and between the mid 50s and mid 60s elsewhere.
155 PM MDT Wed Sep 28 2022 Semi-blocked pattern with a long wave ridge over the central CONUS will slowly allow eastern progression as a trough drops into the northern Rockies. Lee side trough will begin to shift east over the Northern Plains tonight, with an associated LLJ revving up over scentral SD. Upper trough will shift east and allow for increasing moisture and lift aloft, supporting increasing chances for showers and a few storms.
(This evening through Thursday Night) An upper ridge centered over Eastern New Mexico/West Texas will continue to dominate our weather. These factors will delivering a reinforcing surge of cooler air into the region.
The ridge of high pressure that has dominated our weather pattern for the last several days will get pushed east Thursday as an upper trough moves into the northern Rockies.
(Tonight through Thursday night) Key Messages: -Minor to Moderate Coastal Flooding -High Rip Current Risk -Small Craft Advisory High pressure located at 850 mb this afternoon combined with proximity to tighter gradients from Hurricane Ian is resulting in a moderate to strong northeasterly flow, mainly over the offshore waters. Otherwise expect near normal daytime temperatures mainly in the upper 80s with cooler nights around the low to mid 60s as mostly clear skies and lower dewpoints will allow for more efficient radiational cooling.
1222 PM CDT Wed Sep 28 2022 (Today and tonight) We will remain wedged between high pressure off to the west and a broad trough across the eastern US. Look for slightly cooler temperatures across the region as mostly clear skies remain in place overnight.
249 PM EDT Wed Sep 28 2022 An upper level trough will cross the area tonight, then lift out to the northeast Thursday.
The lowest RH values looks to be across our central CWA ranging from 21%-35%, with the drier conditions across central/south-central SD.
341 PM CDT Wed Sep 28 2022 Quiet weather continues across the region as weak upper level ridging builds overhead and amplifies a bit into the weekend.
Most activity should be over the higher terrain along and south of I-70. Broad ridge of high pressure aloft over region with a subtle weak wave moving across eastern Colorado. High temperatures today well into the lower to middle 80s across the plains.
Could see some patchy frost in the low elevations and valleys where colder air can pool, but not expecting a widespread hard frost or freeze.
Dew points in low to mid 30s observed over central MO will surge SW behind front, keeping RH values on the low side. (Tomorrow through Wednesday) Overall, more of the same as a blocking pattern established between remnants of "Ian" and Pacific NW trough which becomes cut off as main westerlies retreat back into Canada. Resultant ridging at the surface an aloft will keep persistent pattern of cool nights, warm days with very low daytime humidity, which offers no help in terms of fire weather. NBM forecast daytime highs generally accepted, while lows will continue to be nudged toward cooler CONSMOS, especially in areas that normally see more efficient radiational cooling.
147 PM PDT Wed Sep 28 2022 A modest cooldown after today will occur as the Four Corners ridge of high pressure loses influences over the region. Afternoon highs this afternoon are likely to moderate a degree or two from yesterday as the ridge of high pressure over the Four Corners area gets nudged aside by a trough of low pressure entering the Pacific Northwest. Highs still remain 3-5 degrees above normal through the weekend though as high pressure over the Eastern Pacific builds.
A weak NW flow persists over the the region as the eastern CONUS trough shifts slowly east. Highs will be a touch cooler in most areas except in the far south and western portions of the forecast area.
Thursday's highs should be about 5 degrees warmer than today's as an elongated 850 mb thermal ridge over the High Plains slowly inches east with the help of the aforementioned southerly LLJ.
1223 PM CDT Wed Sep 28 2022 (Today through Thursday) A mid level ridge remains centered over the southern plains with lower level ridging remains centered off to our northeast. A few of the normally cooler low lying spots in the Hill Country to along the Escarpment may briefly fall into the upper 40s around sunrise.
The center of high pressure that brought down the cooler and drier Canadian air mass today slides further east tomorrow toward the Northeastern US, allowing warmer air underneath the ridge across much of the Western US to begin working its way in from west to east. This will lead to high temperatures a few degrees warmer than today.
High pressure will remain in control through the end of the work week. Meanwhile the upper level trof over the east 1/2 of the nation will lose its influence as heights build over the middle of the country.
1132 AM MDT Wed Sep 28 2022 Key Messages: 1) Isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms over and near the higher terrain this afternoon. Additional weak energy to traverse the flow today with afternoon shower/thunderstorm development expected this afternoon over the higher terrain. In this location, flow across the Raton Mesa along with lee troughing and low/mid level convergence will support widely scattered thunderstorm development.
1242 PM CDT Wed Sep 28 2022 (Rest of Today) Another cool start to the day as temperatures dropped to the lower 40s and even upper 30s in some areas. Temperatures will remain below normal today as high pressure remains over much of the eastern CONUS, keeping northerly flow over our area.
Northwest flow over the lakes will persist through the evening to around 06Z overnight with a passing trough. The mentioned trough will finally exit NE over the course of the day with mainly dry conditions after 00Z as high pressure builds in from the west. Cloud cover will continue overnight with a more moist north to northeast flow which will keep cloud cover over the area a bit longer keeping low temperatures overnight a bit warmer than what might have been in northeast flow.
340 PM EDT Wed Sep 28 2022 Upper level trough and cold temperatures aloft will lead clouds with scattered showers mainly this evening across the Great Lakes. This high will slowly drift east across the Great Lakes through the end of the week resulting in dry weather. Mean long wave trof stretches from the Great Lakes through New England. Expect cool lows from near 40 to the lower 40s. Temperatures will still be below normal but trending warmer. Highs to range from the lower 60s far north to the upper 60s south.
1208 PM CDT Wed Sep 28 2022 (Today and tonight) A weak and diffuse cold front is difficult to locate early this morning but appears to be near a Liberal, KS to Wheeler, TX line is expected to sharpen slightly and move to the south before stalling near a Hereford to Plainview to Guthrie line at mid-afternoon. Upper level high pressure centered pretty much over the forecast area should keep shower development at bay, although some hi-res models are developing some very small dots of QPF/reflectivity near the boundary late in the day. While that development is not out of the question, the upper ridge should win out and will keep precip chances below 10 percent.
Lows overnight tonight will be in the lower to mid 50s inland with upper 50s to around 60 the coast.
Lows tonight are expected to range from 25 to 30 across the north, with lows in the lower to middle 30s elsewhere. Wisconsin will be positioned between upper troughs over the Rockies and the southeast United States.
/Issued 1205 PM CDT Wed Sep 28 2022/ /Through Thursday Night/ Dry and calm weather can be expected to persist through Thursday night as a mid-level ridge continues to control the synoptic pattern. Elevated fire weather conditions are expected this afternoon, primarily west of the I-35 corridor where warmer temperatures and subsequent lower relative humidity values will reside. Slightly cooler temperatures in the low 80s are expected for East Texas Thursday afternoon, with a few readings in the upper 70s not out of the question. Locations along and west of the I-35 corridor will be warmer with temperatures in the upper 80s and low 90s as surface winds remain predominantly southerly through the day.
1123 AM MDT Wed Sep 28 2022 Water vapor shows large scale ridge extending through the Northern Rockies into the Northern Plains, with upper low a bit offshore the Pac NW. At the surface, a rather tight pressure gradient is in place between the ridge over the Upper Midwest and the lee trof extending through central MT/WY. Clear skies overhead early this morning with some gusty south/southeast winds, especially along the Pine Ridge, due to a low level jet. Very warm temperatures are expected the next couple days with thermal ridge moving overhead. Gusty southerly winds today on the plains of western SD will shift more into central SD on Thursday as lee trof advances eastward towards the western Dakotas.
Lows will be able to fall into the low 40s to low 50s with the drier air in place. Conditions over the next several days will be very similar as winds will veer towards the south and broad mid-level ridging builds into the area.
1124 AM CDT Wed Sep 28 2022 (Today through Thursday) Currently, the lowest dewpoints are in the Ranchlands. Ridge will dominate the Central Plains through the Short Term period helping us to sustain our rain-free and sunny weather over the next couple of days. Highs will be in the lower 90s today and tomorrow with lows in the mid 60s.