Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
/ISSUED 934 PM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016/ Skies have cleared across all of the area this evening, with high pressure currently in place. /ISSUED 242 PM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016/ High pressure will settle over the region tonight in the wake of the upper system and cold front which moved thru the area earlier today. Lows will drop to near or several degrees below freezing by morning across much of E OK and NW AR.
After this area exits the CWA there still exists the chance for scttrd SHRAs as the trof axis passes.
124 AM EDT THU MAY 14 2015 DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY SLIDES OFF TO OUR EAST. CLOSEST TO THE COLD POOL ALOFT AS WELL AS THE RIDGE AXIS. AS THE HIGH PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO BOUNCE BACK TO NEAR NORMAL ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS UP AROUND 70 IN THE NORTH TO THE LOWER 70S IN THE SOUTH. A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL PROGRESS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS A WEAK WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE AREA. THE MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL TRY TO BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA FRIDAY. BUT SOME WEAK MID LEVEL ENERGY MAY TRY TO PUSH UP INTO THE RIDGE HEADING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
Models in recent days have been very insistent that any appreciable instability will be held off until after 18z following the passage of the primary warm front now draped across the Red River Valley. enough thermal advection should occur during the mid/late afternoon to allow temps to warm into the lower 70s across the west. its conceivable that northwestern portions of the fcst area could remain dry through the night as action occurs further south near the low-level convergence maximum along/near the Missouri Rvr. Models show main warm front lifting well north of the area which should allow additional low-level moisture to advance northward through the day.
314 AM EDT THU MAY 14 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA THIS MORNING PROVIDING CLEAR SKIES. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT.
A LONG WAVE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC IS FORECAST TO PUSH TO THE SOUTHEAST TODAY AND INTO THE DESSERT SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE LOWER TO MID 80S.
Expect showers and sprinkles to gradually increase in coverage from the southwest this evening with a marked increase in coverage later tonight as the low jet and accompanying moisture advection strengthen.
IT WILL ALSO HELP TO DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA EXCEPT THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN AND SURROUNDING FOOTHILLS. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT THE ABUNDANT RAIN TO PORTIONS OF OUR AREA WAS SLOWLY MOVING AWAY.
642 AM EDT THU MAY 14 2015 DRY WEATHER TODAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY TRACK EASTWARD MOVING OFF THE MID- ATLANTIC COAST AND INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ON FRIDAY. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S.
ALTHOUGH THE MAIN TROUGH WILL NOT EMERGE ONTO THE PLAINS DURING THE DAY ON FRI. MODELS DIFFER ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE WARM FRONT. BUT THERE REMAINS SOME POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE-BASED CI ALONG THE WARM FRONT DURING THE LATE AFTN/EVNG. LOW-LEVEL WIND PROFILES ALONG THE WARM FRONT DISPLAY INCREASING WIND SPEEDS AND STRONG TURNING WITH HEIGHT. THE MAIN TROUGH STILL LOOKS TO EMERGE ONTO THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS ON SAT.
320 AM PDT THU MAY 14 2015 LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE WEST COAST WILL MOVE INLAND THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S THIS AFTERNOON AS SOUTHEAST WINDS GRADUALLY INCREASE BETWEEN SLOWLY EXITING HIGH PRESSURE JUST OFF TO THE EAST AND LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THE ENCROACHING LOW PRESSURE WILL ALSO SPREAD AN INCREASINGLY THICK VEIL OF MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. DRY AIR BLEEDING BACK OFF OF THE HIGH WILL LIMIT ANY LOWER LEVEL CLOUDS. AS THE LOW SHIFTS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. RANGING IN THE UPPER 40S FOR THE THUMB AND SAGINAW VALLEY TO THE LOWER/MID 50S NEAR THE OHIO AND MICHIGAN STATE LINE. SUMMER LIKE RIDGE/TEMPERATURES TO TAKE HOLD FOR THE WEEKEND.
450 AM CDT THU MAY 14 2015 A SEMI PERMANENT BLOCKING PATTERN SETS UP OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC NORTHWARD TO THE GULF OF ALASKA. A SPLIT FLOW IS NOTED ALOFT WHERE ONE STORM TRACK REMAINS OVER SOUTHERN CANADA WHILE ENERGY EJECTS OUT OF THE LOW IN THE VICINITY OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE SOUTHERN STREAM WAVES WILL RIDE THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW AND BUMP THE UPPER RIDGE FROM THE WEST. SOME INTERACTION BETWEEN THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS MAY EVENTUALLY BREAK DOWN THE UPPER RIDGE WHILE THE BLOCKING PATTERN REMAINS OUT WEST. A SURFACE WARM FRONT NEAR THE COAST WILL BEGIN ITS NORTHWARD TREK IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH BY THIS AFTERNOON. PLENTY OF MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT AS SURFACE DEW POINTS JUMP INTO THE 60S. THE WARM FRONT.
248 AM EDT THU MAY 14 2015 DRY WEATHER TODAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY TRACK EASTWARD REACHING THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BASIN ON FRIDAY. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S.
WIDESPREAD LOW PRESSURE ALL OVER THE WESTERN STATES WILL KEEP CLOUDINESS AROUND. WHILE THE EAST HAS A WELL DEFINED TROUGH OVER HUDSON BAY ORIENTED SOUTHWARDS. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT BECAUSE OF A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE GOOD CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND.
309 AM PDT Thu May 14 2015 Continued Cooler than normal conditions with an unsettled pattern today as an upper low develops along the coast.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE AREA WEATHER THROUGH AT LEAST 00Z FOR VFR CONDITIONS AND WINDS LESS THAN 10 KTS DURING THE TAF PERIOD. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST TODAY.
446 AM EDT THU MAY 14 2015 INCREASING MOISTURE ACROSS THE STATE IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE UPPER OHIO RIVER VALLEY SHIFTS OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND WEAKENS. AREA WILL REMAIN LARGELY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A 500 MB RIDGE AXIS THAT KEEPS MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHORT WAVE ENERGY AND RESULTING LIFT WEST AND NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA.
THAT MOISTURE CONTINUES TO OVERSPREAD OUR AREA FRIDAY, WHILE UPPER TROUGH TO OUR WEST KEEPS PUMPING IN MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
1130 PM MDT WED MAY 13 2015 THE REGION WILL TRANSITION INTO A SHORT STABLE PERIOD THIS EVENING AS TRANSITIONAL HIGH PRESSURE SCOOTS EAST THROUGH THE REGION. SHOULD START OUT RATHER DRY MOST AREAS ON THURSDAY WITH AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF UPPER LOW TO THE WEST. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH PRECIPITATION YET THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS MAIN MOISTURE SHOULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW. MOIST UPPER LOW/TROUGH WILL BE MOVING INTO OUR AREA ON FRIDAY WITH MUCH COLDER AIR.
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT BROUGHT THE RAIN SHOWERS OVERNIGHT WAS PASSING OFF TO THE EAST THIS MORNING. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE A STRONG CLOSED OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW PUSHING ASHORE INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA EARLY FRIDAY SETTING UP AN INCREASINGLY DIFLUENT SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. ADDITIONALLY, THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY STRENGTHEN IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LEVEL JET EXITING THE TROUGH AXIS OUT WEST.
115 AM EDT THU MAY 14 2015 CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND SET THE STAGE FOR CLEAR SKIES.
The unsettled weather pattern will continue today as yet another spoke of energy is expected to break off the parent low pressure system currently sitting along the western US coastline.
UPPER AND SURFACE RIDGING CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING.
AND INCREASING SOUTHERLY SFC WINDS WILL HELP BOOST AFTN TEMPS TO NEAR 70F FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH WARMER. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT CAN BE SEEN ON SATELLITE IMAGERY OFF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA THIS MORNING.
A LOW PRESSURE AREA OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOLER THAN NORMAL.
DEEP LAYER RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE INTO TOMORROW. A BOUNDARY NORTH OF THE CWA THAT HAS STALLED CONTINUES TO HELP MAINTAIN A GENERAL EAST FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS. TEMPS AGAIN WILL REMAIN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THANKS TO A PERSISTENT 590 DAM H5 RIDGE. MODEL SOUNDINGS FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON AGAIN NOT INCREDIBLY IMPRESSIVE FOR WIDESPREAD STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH 3-6KM LAPSE RATES FORECAST AROUND 6-7C/KM WITH A SEASONABLY WARM FREEZING AND -20C LEVEL. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE TO ABOVE NORMAL VALUES EACH DAY. BUT THEN RIDGING BREAKS DOWN INTO MID- WEEK AS WEAK TROUGHING MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. SURFACE RIDGING CENTERED WELL NORTH OF THE AREA WILL HELP MAINTAIN GENERALLY EASTERLY FLOW.
THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT 19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD LOW NEAR KPHP WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO EASTERN CO AND WARM FRONT INTO SOUTHERN MN. BUT LACK OF STRONG SOLAR INSOLATION THIS AFTERNOON MAY INHIBIT THE HIGHER VALUES.
AND FRIDAY UPPER TROUGH LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WILL PRODUCE LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND CONVERGENCE AND DESPITE INITIALLY DRY AIR SHOULD BE ABLE TO BRING US A MODERATE RAINFALL. RAIN SHOULD END FROM WEST TO EAST LATE TONIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH EXITS BUT KEPT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHEAST SECTIONS EARLY FRIDAY. DRY WEATHER EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON AFTER A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY GOES BY AND WEAK UPPER RIDGING MOVES IN FROM THE WEST.
TONIGHT: CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO THE NEIGHBORHOOD LATE TONIGHT AS A FAIRLY STRONG MID-UPPER CYCLONE. THE MID-UPPER CYCLONE SHOULD STILL TAKE A FAIRLY TURN TOWARD THE NE AS IT CROSSES THE GREAT BASIN FOR IT'LL BEGIN TO ENCOUNTER A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERING THE UPPER MS VALLEY LATE FRI NIGHT/EARLY SAT MORNING.
WITH THE LOWER LEVELS BELOW 6KFT REMAINING DRY. CURRENT TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE LOW 50S ALONG THE TENNESSEE RIVER. PROBABLY THE REASON WHY DEEPER CONVECTION HAS BEEN HUGGING IN AND CLOSE TO THE TROUGH AXIS.
HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL EXTEND SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS THROUGH TONIGHT. A SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. EXPECT HIGHS SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE ATTENDANT THE UPSTREAM RIDGE AND OTHERWISE INSUFFICIENT FORCING WILL PRECLUDE A POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION TO DEVELOP EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
448 AM EDT THU MAY 14 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE AREA TODAY. A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT WILL BE IN THE VICINITY THIS WEEKEND.
405 AM EDT THU MAY 14 2015 CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING PLENTY OF SUNSHINE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ALONG WITH DRY WEATHER AND A SLOW WARMING TREND.
WV IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON DEPICTS AN ELONGATED TROUGH ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER. STRONG JET STREAK ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH ON FRIDAY AND MUCH OF THE MID LEVEL VORTICITY FOLLOWS WITH IT. THIS LEADS TO AN INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED STORMS FRIDAY NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES AND WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE AREA.
131 AM EDT THU MAY 14 2015 HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TODAY.
248 AM EDT THU MAY 14 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY BEFORE SLIDING OFFSHORE TO THE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS TODAY.
AS WEAK RIDGING SETTLES IN. THE NEXT WARM FRONT WILL LIFT INTO THE AREA AS THE FOUR CORNERS LOW BEGINS TO OPEN UP AND EJECT NORTHEAST TOWARD THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS. WHILE MODELS ALL FEATURE THE ARRIVAL OF THE WARM FRONT ON FRIDAY NIGHT.
659 AM EDT THU MAY 14 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA TODAY WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT.
403 AM EDT THU MAY 14 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WAS OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND WILL MOVE INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THEN OFF THE COAST TODAY AND TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE PLAINS TODAY AND MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY.
648 AM EDT THU MAY 14 2015 CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING PLENTY OF SUNSHINE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ALONG WITH DRY WEATHER AND A SLOW WARMING TREND.
AN UPPER LOW. THE HIGH RES MODELS AS WELL AS THE ENSEMBLE MEANS AND OPERATIONAL RUNS ALL INDICATE THAT PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN OVER SOUTHERN KERN COUNTY AS WELL AS THE SIERRA NEVADA IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. BY FRIDAY MORNING THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND BEGIN TO EJECT EAST INTO ARIZONA AND NEVADA BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
354 AM CDT THU MAY 14 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL LIFT OUT OF THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST TODAY. THIS AFTERNOON THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST SO THE BULK OF THE REMAINING QPF WILL BE OVER THE NORTH AND EAST WITH LIGHTER SHOWERS OVER THE REST OF THE CWA. TEMPS WILL BE COOLER TODAY DUE TO EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP. THIS WAS ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE GOING FORECAST SO I WENT JUST A LITTLE COOLER THAN GUIDANCE MOST LOCATIONS WHICH WAS PRETTY CLOSE TO THE GOING FORECAST.
RAIN WILL BECOME STEADIER AND HEAVIER AT TIMES EARLY TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS BETWEEN 03Z AND 09Z THURSDAY. BY 12Z THURSDAY THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING INTO CENTRAL KANSAS. SUBSIDENCE WILL BE DEVELOPING BEHIND THIS SYSTEM AS AN SHORT WAVE RIDGE AXIS BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS FROM THE WEST. AN UPPER LOW WILL BE APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE GREAT BASIN DURING THE PERIOD, CROSSING INTO THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN ROCKIES BY THE WEEKEND.
255 AM CDT THU MAY 14 2015 SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING IN CONJUNCTION WITH A PASSING UPPER TROUGH. A MORE SUBSTANTIAL UPPER LOW CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWEST CONUS WILL SWING OUT INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS OVER THE WEEKEND.
1254 AM CDT THU MAY 14 2015 MEAN H5 586DM HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SLIDES EAST ACROSS MID/UPPER OHIO VALLEY TODAY. BROAD TROFFING OVER THE SOUTHWEST U. AND RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.
STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS WILL OCCUR TODAY AND FRIDAY AHEAD OF A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH TONIGHT. A SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL SLOWLY DEVELOP FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY SHIFTS OFFSHORE. BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE MS RIVER VALLEY AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL RESULT IN A NW FLOW ALOFT OVER CENTRAL NC OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY. A SECONDARY 850MB TROUGH WILL DROP SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. THIS LOW LEVEL MIXING WILL LIKELY PREVENT OVERNIGHT TEMPS FROM DROPPING MUCH BELOW 50 DEGREES. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE OVER THE CAROLINAS THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. WITH THE HIGH IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO CENTRAL NC. EXPECT HIGHS A BIT COOLER THAN TODAY.
UPPER RIDGING SHOULD BE POSITIONED DIRECTLY OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA ON THURSDAY KEEPING AFTERNOON CONVECTION RATHER LIMITED AND WITH CONTINUED EASTERLY FLOW. MOISTURE IS ROTATING AROUND THIS DRY POCKET AS THE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE US IS SLOWLY MOVING EAST NORTHEAST. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE FORCING THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO EXTEND OVER FLORIDA FOR THE REMINDER OF THE WEEK. AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES THE HIGH BECOMES WEAKER FOR THE WEEKEND AND THE 500 MB TEMPERATURES REACH AVERAGE VALUES.
SINCE OUR WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT. BUT ONLY A COUPLE DUE TO THE HIGH CLOUDS WHICH SHOULD HINDER COOLING SOME.
625 AM EDT THU MAY 14 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE AREA TODAY. A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT WILL BE IN THE VICINITY THIS WEEKEND.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE TODAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION. THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE PRESENT ACROSS THE GULF WATERS NORTH OF THE LOWER AND MIDDLE KEYS. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE ISLANDS ARE NEAR 80 DEGREES WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S.
457 AM EDT THU MAY 14 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE REGION TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
600 AM EDT THU MAY 14 2015 OVERVIEW: OVERNIGHT SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS HIGH PRESSURE NEARLY OVERHEAD LEADING TO A QUIET NIGHT AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. BROAD LONG WAVE RIDGING RESIDES ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS BUT WITH SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTING UP THROUGH THE CENTRAL U. LONG WAVE TROUGH IS FIXED OVER THE WEST COAST. COOLER NEAR THE LAKES OF COURSE. SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN THE PLAINS ADVANCES THROUGH THE STATE OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER, THE MOISTURE ALOFT (700-500 MB) BY 18Z BEGINS TO STRIP OUT LEAVING THE LOWER MOISTURE (850 MB AND LOWER) IN PLACE.
1140 PM MDT WED MAY 13 2015 SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND BECOME MORE NUMEROUS THROUGH THE EVENING AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTS OUT ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION THIS EVENING. IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW. EXPECT DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY.
232 AM EDT THU MAY 14 2015 COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TONIGHT. A DIMINISHING TREND IN THE STRATOCU ACROSS THE REGION IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE THIS EVENING UNDER BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE.
HIGHS NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TODAY DUE TO PRECIP AND APPROACHING UPPER LOW. UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE MOVING INLAND. A PIECE OF THE LOW WILL THEN EXPAND NORTH TO BRING VERY WET AND UNSEASONABLY COOL WEATHER ACROSS MOST OF SE OREGON AND SW IDAHO FRIDAY. AS THE DEEP UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW CONTINUES ITS TRACK NORTHEASTWARD.
612 AM EDT THU MAY 14 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY BEFORE SLIDING OFFSHORE TO THE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT.
347 AM EDT THU MAY 14 2015 DRY WEATHER TODAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY TRACK EASTWARD MOVING OFF THE MID- ATLANTIC COAST AND INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ON FRIDAY. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S.
ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY SURGING TO THE N OF LAKE SUPERIOR OVERNIGHT INTO MID MORNING THURSDAY. WITH INCREASED WAA /850MB TEMPS MOVING TO AROUND 6-8C/ UNDER A STRENGTHENING 500MB RIDGE. NAM SHOWS A 500 MB TROUGH IN THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY 00Z FRI THAT MOVES INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THU NIGHT. WILL GO WITH HIGH LIKELY TO LOW CATEGORICAL POPS FOR THIS TROUGH AS IT MOVES THROUGH THU NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING.
/ISSUED 255 AM CDT THU MAY 14 2015/ SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING IN CONJUNCTION WITH A PASSING UPPER TROUGH. A MORE SUBSTANTIAL UPPER LOW CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWEST CONUS WILL SWING OUT INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS OVER THE WEEKEND.
MOST AREAS CURRENTLY HAVE TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 70S. THIS JUSTIFIES THE HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS IN THE FORECAST.
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA. WHILE AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDS INTO NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.
Best concentration of precipitation was northeast of the trough axis across eastern Nebraska and Kansas with more scattered showers across our CWA.
203 AM EDT THU MAY 14 2015 A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY SHIFT TO THE EAST TODAY. RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY. IN ADVANCE OF EJECTING SOUTHERN PLAINS S/W TROF. RIDGE OVERHEAD W/ BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PART OF THE FCST AREA SHOULD ALLOW FOR DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING.
310 AM CDT THU MAY 14 2015 MEAN H5 586DM HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SLIDES EAST ACROSS MID/UPPER OHIO VALLEY TODAY. BROAD TROFFING OVER THE SOUTHWEST U. AND RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.
314 AM EDT THU MAY 14 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA TODAY WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT.
141 AM EDT THU MAY 14 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA THIS MORNING PROVIDING CLEAR SKIES. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT.
212 AM EDT THU MAY 14 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BY TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING ALOFT OVER THE WEEKEND.
642 AM EDT THU MAY 14 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.
107 AM EDT THU MAY 14 2015 CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND SET THE STAGE FOR CLEAR SKIES.
HAVE ALSO LEFT PREVIOUS MENTION OF WIND SHEAR IN AT KCDS WITH QUICKLY VEERING 40 KNOT SOUTHWEST WINDS WITHIN THE LOWEST 1500 FEET OFF THE DECK. /ISSUED 251 PM CDT WED MAY 13 2015/ UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH THE CWA AS THE RAIN SHIELD THAT BROUGHT WIDESPREAD RAIN TOTALS AROUND 1 INCH PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA. GIVEN THE COLDER AIR ALOFT ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS. MOST OF THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS DO SHOW A NARROW CAPE AXIS INVOF DRYLINE WHICH WOULD PROMOTE THIS ACTIVITY.
343 AM EDT THU MAY 14 2015 LARGE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN U.
RAIN WILL BECOME STEADIER AND HEAVIER AT TIMES EARLY TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS BETWEEN 03Z AND 09Z THURSDAY. BY 12Z THURSDAY THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING INTO CENTRAL KANSAS. SUBSIDENCE WILL BE DEVELOPING BEHIND THIS SYSTEM AS AN SHORT WAVE RIDGE AXIS BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS FROM THE WEST. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE A STRONG CLOSED OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW PUSHING ASHORE INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA EARLY FRIDAY SETTING UP AN INCREASINGLY DIFLUENT SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. ADDITIONALLY, THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY STRENGTHEN IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LEVEL JET EXITING THE TROUGH AXIS OUT WEST.
THE LARGE WESTERN CONUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TOWARD THE WESTERN CONUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED POTENT SOUTHERN PERIPHERY JET STREAK. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE COMBINED WITH AMPLE DEEP LAYER LIFT AND INCREASING LL FLOW WILL SUPPORT INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHRA/TS WEST TO EAST OVER THE AREA TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS LL WARM FRONTOGENESIS ENSUES SOUTH OF THE REGION. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 50 KNOTS BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON/A SFC WARM FRONT WITH BACKED LL PROFILES/AND DECENT ML CAPES IN EXCESS OF 1500 J/KG WILL SUPPORT ROTATING UPDRAFTS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT. LL SHEAR PROFILES SUGGEST A TORNADO THREAT ALONG THE WARM FRONT WHICH COULD PUSH INTO SCENTRAL SD FRI EVENING.
308 AM EDT THU MAY 14 2015 OVERVIEW: OVERNIGHT SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS HIGH PRESSURE NEARLY OVERHEAD LEADING TO A QUIET NIGHT AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. BROAD LONG WAVE RIDGING RESIDES ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS BUT WITH SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTING UP THROUGH THE CENTRAL U. LONG WAVE TROUGH IS FIXED OVER THE WEST COAST. COOLER NEAR THE LAKES OF COURSE. SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN THE PLAINS ADVANCES THROUGH THE STATE OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER, THE MOISTURE ALOFT (700-500 MB) BY 18Z BEGINS TO STRIP OUT LEAVING THE LOWER MOISTURE (850 MB AND LOWER) IN PLACE.
645 AM EDT THU MAY 14 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE REGION TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
THIS IS TIED TO A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT IS FORMING IN THE WEST CENTRAL PLAINS. THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA THAT HAS ALLOWED US TO REMAIN DRY WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EASTWARD TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST US COAST THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY AS THE HIGH TRANSITIONS EASTWARD AND WE CAN EXPECT INCREASING DEWPOINTS OVER THE COMING DAYS. PATCHY VALLEY FOG REMAINS POSSIBLE NEAR SUNRISE MAINLY DUE TO THE HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND LIGHT WINDS. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTING OUT OF THE WEST CENTRAL PLAINS AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL ALLOW MORE MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TO SPREAD INTO THE REGION AROUND 14Z WITH CIGS AOA 15KFT.