Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
158 PM MDT Sat Jul 16 2022 Upper analysis shows a broad region of high pressure centered over the southwestern CONUS with an upper ridge extending over the northern plains. Surface dewpoints are in the lower 50s over northeastern Wyoming, the mid 50s to mid 60s over western South Dakota and the mid 60s to around 70 toward south central South Dakota. A few stronger storms have already developed in an area of enhanced lift along a surface boundary in south central South Dakota where due to the high dewpoints, MUCAPE has exceeded 2000J/KG. Storms that have been developing over the Bighorn mountains may clip parts of mainly southern Campbell county in northeastern Wyoming as they move southeastward off the higher terrain. On Sunday, the upper ridge will amplify over the northern plains with continued subsidence/drying.
As the sun pokes out, temperatures will steadily climb toward the century mark as southwesterly winds pick up thanks to a deepening lee cyclone in southwest Kansas and mix down very warm 850mb temps to the surface. Overall, expect high temperatures to be a degree or two warmer than yesterday.
A broad low-level inverted trough remains near the Keys, with its axis to the west of the islands. Thereafter, the low level ridge will lift to the north and spread west across Florida. This will set the stage for an east-southeasterly regime, favoring nocturnal convection across the Straits, lee-side streamers north of the island chain each afternoon, and undulations in moisture riding along the southern periphery of the ridge.
Somewhat better chances look to develop later this evening and overnight behind the front, as convection originating over the high Plains moves toward the area. Held on to precip chances a bit longer Sunday morning over the Flint Hills and into the afternoon over far southeast Kansas as there looks to be enough post-frontal elevated instability within the mid/upper trof moving over the area.
As high pressure settles in over the eastern CWA tonight, cannot rule out the possibility of some patchy fog along and east of the James River Valley, especially with the added moisture from todays rain. The region will be situated between high pressure to the east and low pressure to the west Sunday and Sunday night, with warm southerly flow under the aforementioned building ridge.
248 PM EDT Sat Jul 16 2022 Convection so far having the most triggering in north GA where a weak impulse could be aiding development, otherwise a possible rather diffuse boundary to the south could also focus some triggering and move northward as we get a bit greater moisture return from the SE flow on the western edge of the Bermuda ridge. Max temps could be a degree or two warmer than today and closer to seasonable norms mainly in the low 90s.
A few CU have developed on the mountaintops, and with dewpoints today being a little higher than the past few days, and the presence of the trough over the mountains, some of this CU could develop into showers and thunderstorms this afternoon. This system will also keep increased cloud coverage over our region tonight, and temperatures are running several degrees warmer than last night.
The freezing level is way up to about 16,000 feet and as of 3pm, the very powerful storm skirting Antelope County has produced pea sized hail and a 56mph gust at most. Showers and storms will have wrapped up by sunrise Sunday and with sunny skies, temps will be notably warmer in the northern half of the area where 90s will be common.
Isolated showers south of I-10 will slowly push north this afternoon, but high pressure and dry air will limit any widespread shower activity.
Forecast soundings show high freezing levels, deep saturation, and moist adiabatic lapse rates late tonight through overnight Sunday.
1146 AM MDT Sat Jul 16 2022 07z analysis had diffuse trough from eastern MT into southeast WY/western NE. Sunday, upper ridge amplifies over the northern plains with subsidence/drying.
With winds blowing off of the lake and good low lvl moisture and cooler temps, it is possible that the fog could persist into this evening in this area if clearing doesn't manage to take root. Lows tonight will fall into the low to mid 60s, with highs on Sunday reaching the low to mid 80s.
1222 PM CDT Sat Jul 16 2022 (Today through Sunday) The upper level ridge which has maintained very hot conditions over the area this week has shifted/re-centered to the southern and central Rockies. Given the low chances, we restricted mention of the storms to the far southeastern coastal plains. The minor relief from the heat will be short-lived, as the upper level ridge begins to shift/build over the central Plains on Sunday. This will return high temperatures to the low 100s, except for upper 90s at higher elevations in the Hill Country. The reinforcement of the ridge should cap any convection, so no rain chances.
Subsidence supplied by the upper ridge centered over northern New Mexico will keep us dry through the weekend aside from a stray thunderstorm in the Big Bend this afternoon.
High pressure to our west and lower pressure to our east will continue to battle it out. High pressure looks to have the slight edge but won't move quite overhead enough to completely suppress convection through the short term.
A very weak Pacific cold front will drift through wrn and ncntl Nebraska tonight and this should advect drier air into wrn Nebraska during the day Sunday. This forecast is a degree or two warmer than the NBM 50th percentile and the guidance blend, but slightly cooler than the bias corrected guidance blend which suggested 100F around Imperial.
(Tonight) Isolated SHRA and TSRA have developed due to strong heating and enhanced terrain along the lower Appalachians, including northeast into central AL. Temperatures have warmed into the upper 80s to lower 90s at this hour, so thankfully, mixing has lowered dewpoints into the lower to middle 60s for most locations. Tonights's low will be in the lower 70s for most, with upper 60s in the plateaus and valleys in our eastern counties.
253 PM MDT Sat Jul 16 2022 Weak energy moving through the axis of a rebounding ridge over southwest Montana will move eastward tonight but airmass is drier. CAMS models have been consistent in popping a few storms overnight mainly north of Billings which close to where the thermal ridge intersects terrain this evening.
Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop along the boundary or farther west in the higher moisture area. Have the highest confidence of storms along the Colorado state line and into west-central Kansas. This is also where the highest pops were retained for the northwest and north counties. Highs tomorrow will be slightly cooler with mid to upper 90s across much of the FA. Storms are not expected Sunday afternoon and evening in response to the mid level ridge moving more overhead.
Currently, broad upper level ridge remains across much of the CONUS, with the ridge axis extending from the southern Intermountain West back north/northeast across the Northern High Plains. Embedded S/WV trough that brought showers and storms earlier this morning to the region continues to push off to the east-southeast into the Upper Midwest this afternoon, with a mostly sunny sky over western and central ND as of 19Z. Models do show the capping inversion eroding with time today, along with a few embedded waves trying to move through the ridge.
At the surface, a cold front is draped east-west across northeast Missouri and west-central Illinois.
It will be hot and humid by midweek with the heat index approaching the low and mid nineties. However, isolated thunderstorms are expected to sprout late this afternoon, mainly toward central Indiana as a warm front approaches. This isolated activity may dwindle after sunset with the loss of daytime heating but become renewed overnight as the warm front continues to lift farther northeast along with the parent low.
Temperatures for the majority of the area are in the lower to mid 90s. The large western CONUS upper high is beginning its westward retreat. Widespread storm development should hold off long enough for the majority of the area to reach 90 degrees or warmer on Sunday. Scattered showers and storms will continue Sunday night with the trough axis still west of the area.
Another night of light winds with warmer air just above the surface will allow fog to redevelop late tonight into early Sunday morning. Near normal low temperatures are anticipated tonight with readings mainly in the low 60s. An upper-level trough will move across the region on Sunday and provide a small chance for showers and thunderstorms to develop during the afternoon and evening. High temperatures will be slightly above normal with readings in the low to middle 80s away from the lake, and middle to upper 70s along the lake.
Ridging continues to build over the Central CONUS with mid-level high anchored to the Four Corners region throughout the short term period. The inverted trough responsible for yesterday's storms has diminished and moved out of the area.
338 PM CDT Sat Jul 16 2022 The subtropical ridge remains anchored to the Four Corners this afternoon but has expanded eastward through the Southern Plains. A lead impulse ahead of this trough will provide sufficient large scale ascent to warrant PoPs tonight, mainly along/north of Interstate 40. A band of stronger winds at the base of the mid-level trough will enhance deep-layer shear, resulting in approximately 25-30 kts of 0-6 km bulk shear.
1146 AM MDT Sat Jul 16 2022 Weak high pressure is over western and central Wyoming today after yesterday's disturbances moved into the northern Plains. High pressure then builds over the forecast area tonight into Sunday with the upper-level ridge axis sliding eastward.
The upper level ridge, centered northwest of the region, will continue to build east through the weekend, resulting in no rain chances and strong subsidence. A weak disturbance will traverse along the northern and eastern periphery of the upper level ridge tonight and tomorrow, which should result a slight uptick in high cirrus clouds across the region. Unfortunately, this won't provide much relief from the heat due to abundant sunshine and veering surface winds ahead of the attendant cold front tomorrow.
This will bring light winds and warmer temperatures as highs reach into the upper 80s to lower 90s.
Clouds will be on the increase with lows in the lower to mid 70s. Temperatures for the majority of the area are in the lower to mid 90s. The large western CONUS upper high is beginning its westward retreat. Widespread storm development should hold off long enough for the majority of the area to reach 90 degrees or warmer on Sunday. Scattered showers and storms will continue Sunday night with the trough axis still west of the area.
448 PM MDT Sat Jul 16 2022 Upper analysis shows a broad region of high pressure centered over the southwestern CONUS with an upper ridge extending over the northern plains. Surface dewpoints are in the lower 50s over northeastern Wyoming, the mid 50s to mid 60s over western South Dakota and the mid 60s to around 70 toward south central South Dakota. A few stronger storms have already developed in an area of enhanced lift along a surface boundary in south central South Dakota where due to the high dewpoints, MUCAPE has exceeded 2000J/KG. Storms that have been developing over the Bighorn mountains may clip parts of mainly southern Campbell county in northeastern Wyoming as they move southeastward off the higher terrain. On Sunday, the upper ridge will amplify over the northern plains with continued subsidence/drying.
Afternoon convection has pretty much dissipated on schedule, and have updated zones to remove mention overnight, except for the lower portions of the Louisiana coastal parishes where the usual late night convective development tends to surge back toward shore around sunrise. High pressure to our west and lower pressure to our east will continue to battle it out. High pressure looks to have the slight edge but won't move quite overhead enough to completely suppress convection through the short term.
This activity should diminish around 00Z as we will be under a mid/upper ridge axis with no synoptic support to maintain convection overnight. Tomorrow, a low pressure system will be tracking across the lower Great Lakes region. The northern sections will be on the higher end of that range, and with some weak shear present, that area will have a chance of seeing a few strong to marginally severe storms.
Prominent large-scale subsidence was occurring across NWRN CA in between an area of upper-level high heights centered over NM and a trough positioned over the NERN PAC. with only modest high temperature fluctuations expected across the interior as the influence of PACNW trough passages aid in temporary periods of weak surface cooling across NWRN CA. In addition, those passing troughs across the PACNW are forecast to yield insufficient ascent and moistening for precipitation development across NRN CA during the next seven days. A thermal trough will build on Sunday with a second expansion fan developing downwind of Cape Blanco.
548 PM MDT Sat Jul 16 2022 Subsidence on the backside of the trough which moved through the region overnight resulted in early sunshine across eastern Utah and western Colorado this morning. As mentioned previously, drier air spreads southward across three-quarters of the forecast area by Sunday afternoon as high pressure spreads westward cutting off the influx of subtropical moisture. Expect readings in the low 100s across the Grand Valley in western Colorado and the lower elevations of southeast Utah during the afternoon and early evening.
551 PM CDT Sat Jul 16 2022 (This evening through Sunday) The upper level ridge of high pressure will stubbornly sit over the Four Corners region this evening and tonight before slowly drifting towards central Texas tomorrow.
/Issued 248 PM EDT Sat Jul 16 2022/ Convection so far having the most triggering in north GA where a weak impulse could be aiding development, otherwise a possible rather diffuse boundary to the south could also focus some triggering and move northward as we get a bit greater moisture return from the SE flow on the western edge of the Bermuda ridge. Max temps could be a degree or two warmer than today and closer to seasonable norms mainly in the low 90s.
As has been the case for at least the last week, high pressure aloft continues to influence the upper level pattern across much of the southwestern and south central CONUS. This front will unfortunately provide very little relief with regards to high temperatures tomorrow, which are forecast to only be a handful of degrees cooler than today.
Rainfall accumulations should range from a half, upwards to several inches in the higher amounts by early Sunday evening.
/issued 338 PM CDT Sat Jul 16 2022/ The subtropical ridge remains anchored to the Four Corners this afternoon but has expanded eastward through the Southern Plains. A lead impulse ahead of this trough will provide sufficient large scale ascent to warrant PoPs tonight, mainly along/north of Interstate 40. A band of stronger winds at the base of the mid-level trough will enhance deep-layer shear, resulting in approximately 25-30 kts of 0-6 km bulk shear.
346 PM MDT Sat Jul 16 2022 Subsidence on the backside of the trough which moved through the region overnight resulted in early sunshine across eastern Utah and western Colorado this morning. As mentioned previously, drier air spreads southward across three-quarters of the forecast area by Sunday afternoon as high pressure spreads westward cutting off the influx of subtropical moisture. Expect readings in the low 100s across the Grand Valley in western Colorado and the lower elevations of southeast Utah during the afternoon and early evening.
615 PM CDT Sat Jul 16 2022 (Tonight) Isolated SHRA and TSRA have developed due to strong heating and enhanced terrain along the lower Appalachians, including northeast into central AL. Temperatures have warmed into the upper 80s to lower 90s at this hour, so thankfully, mixing has lowered dewpoints into the lower to middle 60s for most locations. Tonights's low will be in the lower 70s for most, with upper 60s in the plateaus and valleys in our eastern counties.
A surface through lower level trough is now located just west of our area. Short Term Update - As the low level trough pushes out further west and day time heating effects dissipates, a tighter pressure gradient to our east will be able to build further into our area. In addition, the low level inhibition is expected to weaken. Outside of convection, overnight lows will be in the lower 80s with dew points holding in the mid 70s. The combination of an inverted trough moving further away to the west and dissipating effects of day time heating will allow a somewhat tighter pressure gradient and stronger breezes to build in westward across Keys waters through the overnight period.
Currently, we have a few light showers coming just across the Kansas / Oklahoma border into northern Oklahoma in the vicinity of an approaching cold front. The exception will be behind the front in northwest Oklahoma (with "cooler" temperatures of 99 to 101 degrees).
308 AM CDT Sun Jul 17 2022 Upper level energy will continue to move southeast across the region as a slow moving trof advances across the Upper Midwest, Great Lakes and Ohio Valley through tonight. Readings early this morning running warmer than forecast.
A weak cold front moves through on Sunday and Monday.
As a weakening trough moves off the Eastern Seaboard today, a small segment of enhanced PV along the troughs' southernmost region of influence will move across our region. Expect overnight lows in the low to mid 70s with daytime highs around 90 degrees.
An area of low pressure along the front currently just southeast of Kankakee is triggering scattered thunderstorms across central/northern Indiana. A few showers/storms may re-develop along/east of I-57 on Monday as the upper trough axis gradually shifts eastward into the Ohio River Valley.
A weak surface boundary remains positioned near the lower Missouri River Valley, with locations south able to bake in the available sunlight, with highs pushing the mid to upper 90s. Later tonight, an approaching open short wave traversing the larger trough into the region will provide ample forcing for ascent across the region for the development of showers and thunderstorms across the region. The lingering surface boundary will also provide an anchor for development with the short wave's arrival and the increase in the low level jet from the southwest. The broad ridging in place will remain centered along the spine of the Rockies, for the most part, through Monday, before shifting east with the arrival of another open short wave trough. Temperatures will remain rather seasonable, cooler on Sunday, through Monday.
Highs today will range from the mid 80s west, to low 80s east, where more widespread clouds and shower activity will keep temps a touch cooler. Showers will end by this evening as the trough pushes east, with skies starting to clear this evening into the overnight hours.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 91 73 87 71 90 / 30 30 70 50 40 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 90 72 84 70 88 / 30 30 80 50 40 Oak Ridge, TN 89 71 82 70 88 / 40 40 80 50 40 Tri Cities Airport, TN 87 68 82 67 85 / 40 40 80 50 40.
From today through Monday, a very warm airmass aloft is expected to advect east across the forecast area as an upper ridge expands to the northeast.
Discussion: Currently a few isolated showers have developed across southeast KY ahead of the low pressure system moving through the Ohio Valley/Great Lakes region. As the low pressure gets closer moisture will increase across the region and afternoon dew points will rise to around 70 degrees. Very little shear in the low/mid levels would indicate storms should have a difficult time organizing. Northeast TN and southwest VA will be the location with the highest risk to see the strongest storms. With increased cloud coverage expected to linger overnight, low temperatures should be a few degrees warmer than what we see this morning.
312 AM EDT Sun Jul 17 2022 In the upper levels, a large blocking ridge will continue to hold over the southwestern US through the first half of the week as an upper level trough sits over the southeastern US and Gulf of Mexico. At the surface, the ridge axis is positioned north of Florida today, setting up southeasterly flow under deep tropical moisture. The gradient flow should be light enough to allow the west coast sea breeze to push inland slightly, so the highest rain chances will be expected over the interior during the late afternoon and early evening hours.
(Today) Big picture wise, a somewhat of a ridging west and troughing east pattern was present over the greater CONUS. A strong upper ridge with 500mb heights in the mid 590s decameter range was positioned over the 4-Corners. Another upper ridge was situated across Bermuda. A westerly stream north of these ridges featured upper systems moving to the east.
Another night of light winds with warmer air just above the surface will allow fog to redevelop late tonight into early Sunday morning.
The humid air mass and build up of daytime instability (highs in the low 80s and MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg) may be enough for a few isolated showers and storms during the afternoon and evening, but with fairly low areal coverage.
Expect showers to continue through Monday as the short wave trough makes its way eastward. Due to additional cloud cover from showers, most of the area will see temperatures in the low to mid 90s today and Monday. As for low temperatures, areas in our northeast counties should see temperatures in the low 70s while everywhere south and west of the area will be in the mid 70s.
Temperatures climb a degree or two, as the upper level ridge centered over the 4 corners region, moves slowly eastward.
Low temps in the low/mid 70s. A mid-level trough approaches the area Monday, leading to another good chance of rain through the day. Weak troughing aloft then continues for the duration of the week with appreciable atmospheric moisture/precipitable water for continued rain chances in the forecast.
Models show the low moving slowly east northeast, allowing this boundary to meander north of our region through Monday, with some potential of it sinking into our northern counties from time to time. Models also show an upper level trof slowly moving through the middle Mississippi and lower Ohio valleys Sunday into Monday. With the approach of the upper trof, went with likely to categorical PoPs for showers and storms through the day Sunday into Sunday evening for the entire PAH forecast area. Chances will then slowly decrease from northwest to southeast from late Sunday night through Monday evening as the surface boundary and upper trof move through, with a return of dry conditions by late Monday night. Following the Sunday-Monday unsettled period, yet another stout 591-594 dm ridge will begin to build over the region from the Central Plains.
Tonight Through Monday The upper ridge continues over the western U. Another upper trough will ride down the east side of the high Sunday and by Monday will be in the Appalachians. A weak cold front is located in central Missouri this afternoon.
An upper low will move into the PacNW on Sunday. The approaching low will also lead to increasing southwest winds that will become breezy over the higher elevations during the afternoon.
1200 AM CDT Sun Jul 17 2022 (This evening through Sunday) The upper level ridge of high pressure will stubbornly sit over the Four Corners region this evening and tonight before slowly drifting towards central Texas tomorrow.
At the surface, a frontal boundary will slowly inch closer to the area from the west, with multiple areas of low pressure moving along the front. The forecast area will be in the midst of cold frontal exit.