Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Daytime highs will be a little cooler tomorrow behind the front but temperatures will still be well above seasonal. Another Pacific trough will move into the region, again only clipping our northern counties. This will lead to another quick shot of snow for the northern mountains before the trough heads towards the midwest.
With temperatures close to freezing this morning, precipitation may start as a light rain/snow mix, but with no accumulation. An upper trough will come through later tonight that will help focus the existing moisture and bring wintry weather to Middle Tennessee. Given that temperatures will slide back toward freezing during the evening, and into the 20's by 12Z Sunday, accumulating snowfall seems inevitable.
This will be especially true in the higher elevations. Elsewhere, dry and cold conditions will persist through Sunday night as cold continental high pressure moves in from the northwest.
As the low clouds move into these areas, temperatures are expected to level off. With calmer winds tonight, some fog along with the low clouds is possible early morning. A very weak short wave at 500mb will move over the region tomorrow and combined with a strong cold front may develop convection.
351 AM CST Sat Mar 11 2017 Cold front which moved across area has pushed offshore. Stnry warm front over TX hill country may provide enough elevated instability for embedded tstsm over east TX, but otherwise cold air at sfc inhibit thunder across area. Isold showers across area attm becmg scattered in coverage this aftn, and finally more widespread as stratiform rain as a secondary cold front pushes quickly across the area.
1139 PM CST Fri Mar 10 2017 Winds at the terminals will shift to the northeast and east tonight and early Saturday in the wake of a cold frontal passage.
Thermal profiles in the modifying polar airmass still show potential for a light wintry mix to the north of Highway 54/400, with possibly a brief band of light snow up by I-70 Saturday in association with the 700 mb trough axis. Lee troughing and a strengthened pressure gradient will occur ahead of this system during the day Sunday, allowing for some temperature modification and gusty southerly winds. Gulf moisture return ahead of this upper trough looks limited with trajectories coming from the Rio Grande Valley. Nevertheless, the lift with the upper trough combined with marginal moisture return and steep mid- level lapse rates should result in a chance of showers across the region.
Lows tonight will range from the high single digits in south Central Lower Michigan to the teens elsewhere. Highs on Saturday will be in the upper 20s to the lower 30s.
1211 AM EST Sat Mar 11 2017 A cold front will push offshore this evening followed by cooler high pressure into Saturday night.
First up is a cold front coming through Saturday. Cool air pouring in from the north will bring lows into the upper 20s across much on northern Oklahoma on Sunday morning, with freezing temperatures reaching just past I-40.
1122 PM CST Fri Mar 10 2017 Cigs expected to continue to fall this morning, though a quick break or two may occur before the lowest clouds set in during the early morning hours before sunrise. Winds will become gusty late afternoon through early evening with the passage of another cold front. As the low clouds move into these areas, temperatures are expected to level off. With calmer winds tonight, some fog along with the low clouds is possible early morning. A very weak short wave at 500mb will move over the region tomorrow and combined with a strong cold front may develop convection.
126 AM EST Sat Mar 11 2017 High pressure will build out of the Great Lakes today in the wake of the departing storm system.
315 AM EST Sat Mar 11 2017 High pressure brings cold arctic air Saturday and Sunday.
Have decreased snowfall amounts to around an inch or less north of I-80 and 1-2 inches south, with the highest amounts right along the NE-KS border. Saturday afternoon through Sunday morning will provide a quick breather from the weather, with cold temperatures lingering as highs struggle to get above freezing and lows fall into the upper teens to lower 20s.
Predawn satellite imagery showed mainly high level cloudiness approaching from the northwest in conjunction with the southern end of a weak trough traversing the Inter-Mountain West.
However, the GFS is stronger with this impulse and pulls down some cooler air for Fri. There is good model agreement in upper ridging over the Rockies into the Plains for Sat into Sun providing well above normal temps. A STRONG semi-inverted ridge conts to punch SE fm Saskatchewan and Manitoba, acrs the mid-MS Valley, to the Sern U. Meanwhile, weak low pressure wl dvlp over the NM/Mexico bdr on Sat. Fire weather concerns are expected to remain on the low side for today and become slight elevated Sunday. Should see some light precip across much of the area today with below normal temps keeping RH values on the higher side.
A ridge of high pressure will build into the region with mainly dry conditions expected into tonight except for the area mountains that could experience an isolated shower. Despite some patchy fog tonight the drier conditions will give way to a low pressure system that will spread mid and high level clouds to the region Saturday into Saturday night. The low pressure system along with most of its moisture will move away from the area Sunday with lingering showers once again in the area mountains into Sunday night.
Tomorrow night, a trough within northwesterly flow will drop into the Ohio River Valley. Surface temps will be above freezing, and impacts will be minimal with no accumulation.
An area of low pressure over SE Wyoming will slowly track southeast of the region tonight through Saturday.
1138 PM EST Fri Mar 10 2017 High pressure building down from western Canada will push bitter cold air across the region through this weekend.
/issued 557 PM CST Fri Mar 10 2017/ The cold front has backdoored SW into the Wrn sections of E TX late this afternoon, and may continue to nudge SW this evening before stalling over Cntrl and SE TX later tonight. /issued 334 PM CST Fri Mar 10 2017/ Cold front pushing swwd across Deep E TX this afternoon and is expected to just clear the region by late tonight. Temperatures to remain near mid-March normals for the first part of the work week before another trof/cold front bring an unseasonably cool airmass back to the region.
A cold front will begin moving into the area around/after 00z Sunday with gusty east to northeast winds. /issued 157 PM CST Fri Mar 10 2017/ Cold front near the Pecos River will lift back n as a warm front tonight and as such low level mstr in form of low clouds, possibly some fog, will be favored to redevelop. NW flow aloft will amplify and as previously mentioned cold/warm front surges s again. A low level moisture axis as seen in theta-e ridge will set up in advance of the front and INVOF central PB. In turn it will be noticeably cooler Sun AM/PM.
As of 17Z the cold front was draped across northern Alabama and Mississippi. Temperatures will be about 5 to 10 degrees cooler than last night, ranging from mid 40s inland to lower 50s at the coast. Model data is currently in disagreement about the track of this low and the amount of rain expected. Lows on Saturday night will be in the lower 50s. Lows on Sunday night will be cooler in the mid 40s to lower 50s.
At the same time this morning you can clearly see an area of broad low pressure. Guidance this morning suggest that the area of low pressure should stay right along or just south of the Louisiana coastline tonight.
This will be especially true in the higher elevations. Dry and cold conditions will prevail through the weekend as the broad upper trough remains situated of the eastern CONUS.
Sunday should be much cooler with much below normal temperatures behind the front with considerable cloudiness expected.
312 AM EST Sat Mar 11 2017 Aloft - A ridge was over the Pacific coastal states. a low in southeast Quebec troughed down the eastern seaboard to near GA/FL. Surface - Strong high pressure over the Canadian prairies ridged south-southeast. Through tonight the Quebec low shifts to the Canadian Maritimes with the trough axis sliding east. allowing zonal flow to spread across the Gulf and FL while a short wave trough forms over the southern Plains. This high will dominate much of the area today with a stable and generally dry air mass with clear to mostly sunny skies. During Sun the upper low and trough move farther offshore with the short wave trough trekking into the central Gulf.
343 AM EST Sat Mar 11 2017 High pressure and cold airmass will remain in place across the area through the weekend.
A weak cold front will make its way south into the Florida peninsula and eastern Gulf of Mexico overnight.
A weak cold front will cross the area through tonight. Warm high pressure aloft will develop across the western states for the first half of the week. The weak cold front associated with this trough has made it to central Utah and is expected to continue south through the rest of the state overnight. Clouds will also gradually clear from the northwest during the overnight hours, so between the cooler airmass and clearer skies, northern Utah should see lower mins than last night. High pressure will return for tomorrow before another weak and dry cold front arrives for late Saturday night through Sunday.
Temperature guidance is trending upward, but most places should at least get down to freezing by morning. The other concern is the freezing of any lingering moisture on area roads later Saturday night as the entire area goes well into the 20s. The entire area should climb into the 40s with good sunshine Sunday, but we should see more freezing temperatures over most of the area Sunday night.
The highest pops continue across Barber county. A warmer day is expected Sunday as warm air advection and lee troughing resumes. There may be elevated fire weather conditions Sunday as pressure falls in the lee of the Rockies and warmer temperatures and lower RH's prevail.
148 AM EST Sat Mar 11 2017 High pressure will build out of the Great Lakes today in the wake of the departing storm system.
In the lower levels models indicate a tightening surface to H85 inverted trough axis leading to a convergent zone which could enhance rainfall chances across eastern counties, especially near and south of I-10. Cooler and breezy behind the front.
This is still a bit warmer than anticipated as the colder temps this morning did not quite develop. With the warmer temps to the south, the change over to snow may not occur till later in the day toward the evening. With skies cleared out for the day on Sunday and high pressure passing through temps will rebound nicely by Sunday afternoon with highs in the mid 40s. In general, a seasonally deep trough will take shape in the east, with ridging out west.
High pressure building into the region north of Arkansas will keep a steady supply of cool/dry air flowing into the state tomorrow. The current forecast advertises 1-2 inches of accumulation from the higher terrain in the Boston Mountains eastward to the border with NWS Memphis.
The inverted trough still persist with the mean moisture advection/dewpoint gradient existing over West Tennessee as of 8 pm CDT.
1135 PM EDT SAT SEP 3 2016 A large area of high pressure, covering the Great Lakes and much of the Northeastern U.
Light northeast to east winds will increase to 10-15 knots on Sunday as high pressure builds into the southeast states.
With mostly clear skies and dewpoints hanging in the low/mid 60s for one more night, looking forward to another pleasant night of temps in the mid/upper 60s. The ridge will then begin to return moisture into the area while post tropical storm Hermine lingers along the east coast. As an upper-level trough pushes in from the northwest late in the week, our ridge will break down and Hermine will finally venture away from the coast. The GFS is flattening the ridge faster and pushing out the drier air faster than the ECMWF, so that could play a role on precip/cloud cover/temps near the end of the forecast package. JMS For 00Z TAFs: With a weak area of high pressure in place at the sfc over the cntrl Gulf states, VFR conds are generally xpcted through the TAF period.
19Z water vapor imagery and profilers show southwest flow aloft with the upper trough axis from northern CA into the northern Rockies. At the surface a ridge of high pressure remained just to the east of the forecast area as a trough of low pressure in the lee of the Rockies gradually deepened. Lows tonight are expected to be in the lower 60s with a little more mixing and cloud cover anticipated overnight. A strengthening pressure gradient and southerly winds of 10 to 20 MPH are expected to bring warmer air in to the forecast area Sunday. Highs are therefore anticipated to be warmer with readings into the lower and middle 80s.
1144 PM CDT SAT SEP 3 2016 Very quiet weather pattern persisting over the Heartland this afternoon as large-scale ridging continues to develop/build over the north-central Great Lakes region.
Weak high pressure continues to dominate the region leaving us with a few mid to high level clouds streaming in from the northwest this evening.
The tight pressure gradient overhead is keeping southerly winds gusting 20 to near 30kts this afternoon, as we remain stuck between exiting high pressure across the Great Lakes, and nearing low pressure over western-central SD. Precip associated with the low level jet is not a given over the eastern half of the, and have limited it to mainly southeast of ATY.
We are a couple of degrees cooler than this time last night with the wind the big play maker there or lack of it. tomorrow increasing for Labor Day as the now warm front moves overhead on Southerly winds. /issued 356 PM CDT SAT SEP 3 2016/ Upper ridge overhead has produced strong subsidence with mostly clear skies today and only limited CU across parts of the region. The other noticeable change will be temperatures warming back into the lower 90s as the upper ridge continues to dominate through the Labor Day weekend.
1145 PM EDT SAT SEP 3 2016 Skies remain clear across our entire CWA late this evening under the influence of strong high pressure and dry air thru the column. Enjoy! Hermine to our east and deep trough over the PAC NW. continues to strengthen a mid level ridge over the Great Lakes region. High Impact Weather: wind gusts on the Mackinac Bridge during the Bridge walk on Labor Day. High pressure continues to provide a clear sky overnight.
1158 PM EDT SAT SEP 3 2016 Light winds of 5 knots or less and mainly clear skies can be expected as high pressure remains positioned over the region. MSAS Analysis this afternoon centers the sprawling Canadian surface anticyclone over portions of Ontario and Lake Huron.
901 PM EDT SAT SEP 3 2016 A large area of high pressure, covering the Great Lakes and much of the Northeastern U.
618 PM CDT SAT SEP 3 2016 Very quiet weather pattern persisting over the Heartland this afternoon as large-scale ridging continues to develop/build over the north-central Great Lakes region.
717 PM PDT SAT SEP 3 2016 Forcing ahead of upper level trough has been a little more robust this evening with a number of lightning strikes near Ravendale in northeast California. Latest HRRR indicates a decent band of showers forming along cold front near daybreak over northwest NV and moving east-southeastward Sunday morning as main upper trough swings through the region.
1036 PM EDT SAT SEP 3 2016 A large area of high pressure, covering the Great Lakes and much of the Northeastern U.
635 PM CDT SAT SEP 3 2016 Latest water vapor satellite imagery shows upper level ridge over the Great Lakes region and upper level trough over the Canadian Rockies/Pacific Northwest. Surface/upper level ridge over the Great Lakes region remains in control of the forecast area. Temperatures should be slightly warmer Sunday. 12z GFS/NAM suggest warmer air to advect into the forecast area.
1111 PM EDT SAT SEP 3 2016 Post Tropical Cyclone Hermine will continue to lift slowly northeastward along the east coast tonight through late week. as high pressure builds over the region from the west. Remainder of eastern NC: Gradually improving conditions are expected across most of eastern NC overnight as Post Tropical Storm Hermine continues slowly offshore and high pressure begins to build into the area from the northwest. Most of eastern NC will be under the influence of building high pressure with partly cloudy skies and temperatures in the upper 70s to lower 80s inland and mid 70s coast. The remainder of eastern NC will experience dry weather with increasing warmth and humidity especially late week as high pressure surface and aloft prevails over the area.
844 PM EDT SAT SEP 3 2016 A large area of high pressure, centered over Ontario, will keep our weather mainly dry, through the rest of the holiday weekend.
Generally quiet and mild wx conditions prevail across the cntrl TN Valley this late Sat evening, with high pressure layered over the cntrl Gulf states in control over the overall wx pattern. 09 (Issued 646 PM CDT SAT SEP 3 2016) For 00Z TAFs: With a weak area of high pressure in place at the sfc over the cntrl Gulf states, VFR conds are generally xpcted through the TAF period.
843 PM MDT SAT SEP 3 2016 A low pressure trof is over the Pacific Northwest and moist, southwest flow will continue over the region. A deep low pressure trof will be over the Pacific Northwest tonight.
The disturbance moves east starting Labor day as an upper level high pressure system brings a return of near to slightly above normal temperatures for the coming work week. Little change in max temps on Sat over the Nrn mtns and Coastal Range while the rest of the area was some 3 to 8 degrees cooler than Fri. It was cooler than 24 hours ago as the upper trough settled in and onshore flow increased. The trough over the West slowly shifts east through the remainder of the weekend. The trof will maintain the below average temperatures across the region on Sun.
Models differ on the scenario for tomorrow, with some of the high res solutions keeping most of the precip offshore and into the coastal counties during the morning with only sparse shra activity further inland during the afternoon hours.
720 PM EDT SAT SEP 3 2016 High pressure will remain in place across the region through the Labor Day weekend. High pressure ridge will be over the region through this time as tropical system spins in place off of the Delmarva peninsula.
844 PM EDT SAT SEP 3 2016 Post Tropical Cyclone Hermine will continue to lift slowly northeastward along the east coast tonight through late week. as high pressure builds over the region from the west. Remainder of eastern NC: Gradually improving conditions are expected across most of eastern NC overnight as Post Tropical Storm Hermine continues slowly offshore and high pressure begins to build into the area from the northwest. Most of eastern NC will be under the influence of building high pressure with partly cloudy skies and temperatures in the upper 70s to lower 80s inland and mid 70s coast. The remainder of eastern NC will experience dry weather with increasing warmth and humidity especially late week as high pressure surface and aloft prevails over the area.
653 PM CDT SAT SEP 3 2016 Another warm and sunny day for Central Illinois, and the pleasant weather will continue into tomorrow as high pressure remains in control of the region. Tomorrow will be similar, with afternoon cumulus and winds becoming a little more southerly as the ridge axis slips to the east.
We are a couple of degrees cooler than this time last night with the wind the big play maker there or lack of it. tomorrow increasing for Labor Day as the now warm front moves overhead on Southerly winds.
Upper level high pressure continues to be found over the western Great Lakes. This position has allowed cirrus and more widespread cumulus over the CWA than previous days when the high was farther west.
902 PM CDT SAT SEP 3 2016 Another quiet weather night across central and southeast Illinois, with high pressure and an associated dry airmass in place. Another warm and sunny day for Central Illinois, and the pleasant weather will continue into tomorrow as high pressure remains in control of the region. Tomorrow will be similar, with afternoon cumulus and winds becoming a little more southerly as the ridge axis slips to the east.
952 PM EDT SAT SEP 3 2016 High pressure from the Great Lakes down through the Ohio Valley and Southeast continues over the forecast area with mostly clear skies.
720 PM EDT SAT SEP 3 2016 A large area of high pressure, centered over Ontario, will keep our weather mainly dry, through the rest of the holiday weekend.
1150 PM CDT SAT SEP 3 2016 Another quiet weather night across central and southeast Illinois, with high pressure and an associated dry airmass in place. Another warm and sunny day for Central Illinois, and the pleasant weather will continue into tomorrow as high pressure remains in control of the region. Tomorrow will be similar, with afternoon cumulus and winds becoming a little more southerly as the ridge axis slips to the east.
Temperatures were in the upper 70s to near 80 north to the low to mid 80s south.
634 PM CDT SAT SEP 3 2016 Ridge axis extends from near Chicago southwest to near Springfield Missouri. Light wind in the vicinity of the ridge axis and low dew point temps should allow for good radiational cooling. which may not be enough if lows end up being warmer than expected.
1148 PM CDT SAT SEP 3 2016 Latest water vapor satellite imagery shows upper level ridge over the Great Lakes region and upper level trough over the Canadian Rockies/Pacific Northwest. Surface/upper level ridge over the Great Lakes region remains in control of the forecast area. Temperatures should be slightly warmer Sunday. 12z GFS/NAM suggest warmer air to advect into the forecast area.
1045 PM EDT SAT SEP 3 2016 Weak frontal trough is draped nearly east-west across north FL, just north of Lake and Volusia counties.
Maliawco The large western trough of low pressure aloft is in solid control most of the western and north central states, streaming in Pacific moisture from the California coastline through the Great Basin and northeastward through eastern Montana. Mostly cloudy skies from earlier today are partially clearing, but are expected to become mostly cloudy to overcast by tonight from the south as the trough digs further into our region. Sunday: The upper low center intrudes further into the northern Rockies and pushes the rain shield across the entirety of the CWA.
733 PM EDT SAT SEP 3 2016 Strong high pressure over the Great Lakes region will gradually pull eastward into southeast Canada through Labor Day.
546 PM MDT SAT SEP 3 2016 Deep pac nw upper trough will remain in place in the period, supporting sw flow aloft. Convection will trend east and wane overnight with much cooler conds settling into the western 2/3, with 40s and 50s expected for lows there. Showers will linger over the far nw overnight given prox to the upper trough. Upper trof will be across the northern Rockies early in the week, then slowly move east across the northern plains through the remainder of the week.
617 PM CDT SAT SEP 3 2016 Aloft: SW flow is over the Cntrl Plains with a longwave trof along the W coast and a ridge over Ern N America. This trof will cont E and cross the fcst area this eve. The highest we've seen is over 1. The Wrn trof will deamplify and height falls will spread E across the Nrn USA with a broad trof developing (almost zonal at times). What's left over the Wrn trof lifts thru the Nrn Plains Wed followed by a strong trof Fri. Temps will average warmer than normal until the second front plows thru Thu night. Then temps will turn a little cooler than normal.
928 PM CDT SAT SEP 3 2016 High pressure will continue over the area tonight. (ISSUED 641 PM CDT SAT SEP 3 2016 ) High pressure will continue in control of the Arkansas weather.
1035 PM EDT SAT SEP 3 2016 A large area of high pressure, covering the Great Lakes and much of the Northeastern U.
641 PM CDT SAT SEP 3 2016 High pressure will continue in control of the Arkansas weather.