Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Strengthening high pressure aloft will bring warming temperatures through the middle part of this week as well as very dry conditions. Lighter winds and continued above normal temperatures will return for the upcoming weekend as high pressure once again reestablishes itself over the region. Above normal temperatures and mostly clear skies are still expected during this period as models remain in excellent agreement that heights aloft will gradually rise ahead of long-wave trofing that is expected to develop just off the west coast. Increasing southerly flow is expected to pull somewhat warmer air into the region.
The cold front that was slowly propagating into the counties of Brazos, Madison, and Houston has begun to stall out becoming a stationary front.
An upper level ridge will move east across the southern plains. Wednesday, An upper level trough will move east across the central plains during the late morning and afternoon hour. The low-level flow will increase and transport deeper moisture north across central KS. Highs on Wednesday will reach the lower to mid 70s, with the eastern counties seeing more insolation and warming to around 75 degrees.
At the time of this writing a cold front lay NE-SW across the far southeast corner of our CWA. In the wake of the front high pressure overspreading the area will keep the region dry through the end of the short term period. At the beginning of the period, our CWA will be under the influence of an upper level ridge, with an upper level wave moving northeast riding along the northern periphery of this high, across the central Plains into the upper Midwestern states. The GFS does not indicate as strong of an upper level ridge and we feel the effects of the aforementioned upper wave a bit more.
Some of these storms may become strong or severe given the high instability, steep lapse rates, and moderate deep layer shear. If we do get some heating, as most of the models indicate, additional showers and storms will develop in the higher terrain and areas west of the Pecos River by afternoon.
/issued 755 AM CDT Tue Apr 11 2017/ For the 11/12Z terminal forecast, expecting MVFR/IFR flight categories to prevail across the Four State Region due to a large large area of showers and thunderstorms ongoing out ahead of an upper level trough of low pressure and an associated slow moving cold front.
139 PM EDT Tue Apr 11 2017 High pressure remains off the Mid Atlantic coast as low pressure tracks across the Great Lakes. A cold front crosses the region Wednesday.
230 PM EDT Tue Apr 11 2017 High pressure remains off the Mid Atlantic coast as low pressure tracks across the Great Lakes. A cold front crosses the region Wednesday.
206 PM EDT Tue Apr 11 2017 A cold front will move through this afternoon and this evening.
246 PM EDT Tue Apr 11 2017 Partly cloudy skies over the Florida Keys today with temperatures reaching the lower 80s and dewpoints steady in the mid 60s. While high pressure dominates the lower troposphere across the southeast U.
228 PM CDT Tue Apr 11 2017 Showers and thunderstorms are slowly tracking to the southeast ahead of the approaching cold front this afternoon.
315 PM EDT Tue Apr 11 2017 High pressure will remain offshore through Wednesday.
With the high over the region and very light winds, temperatures will drop quickly after sunset.
259 PM CDT Tue Apr 11 2017 Our next disturbance is making its way across western Sonora this afternoon with some strengthening likely as the trough axis eases into New Mexico Wednesday afternoon.
While I cant rule out some patchy frost, and/or fog development overnight under this high, I have opted to leave the mention of such out of the forecast at this time. However, this will not be the case for areas near the lake shores, where an afternoon lake breeze will result in much cooler conditions.
135 PM EDT Tue Apr 11 2017 High pressure ridge across the area will remain in control of the region today with a weak cold front arriving Wednesday.
248 PM CDT Tue Apr 11 2017 High pressure will build east across central and southeast Illinois through the period, accompanied by light winds and quiet weather. The drier air with the high will help skies to clear across the area this evening, with the mostly clear skies lingering for much of Wednesday. Southerly low-level winds will develop on the back side of the ridge of high pressure for Wednesday. These warmer winds, and ample sunshine, should boost temperatures about 5 to 10 degrees warmer than today (well into the 60s in most areas).
Weak high pressure will settle into the area tonight and should allow winds to weaken, especially west of Interstate 29. Will aim for lows in the mid 30s around the James Valley in central SD to the lower 40s in northwest IA.
1209 PM CDT Tue Apr 11 2017 Freezing temperatures with a cold start this morning and temperatures today. The low clouds at 08Z were just south of LNK with freezing temperatures across much of the forecast area save for far southeast Nebraska into southwest Iowa and range from 23 degrees for the cold spot at 08Z of 23 degrees at OLU. Lows will not be as cold in the lower 40s.
224 PM MDT Tue Apr 11 2017 A mean low amplitude upper level ridge will remain over the area through Wed night. An upper level trough currently over the West Coast spreading all the high level coulds toward and over our region will move east tonight and deamplify as it moves through the mean ridge.
338 PM EDT Tue Apr 11 2017 Upper ridge gets suppressed during the short term as a weak front drifts southward into GA. With upper ridging through the weekend most areas will remain dry, though a few showers and thunderstorms can't be ruled out each afternoon, primarily in the mountains of northeast Georgia.
A weak upper ridge over the forecast area tonight will be shoved eastward tomorrow as the next upper level trough moves over New Mexico. Overnight temperatures will be in the mid 50s north to the lower 60s south.
Upper level ridging from the Gulf extending northeast across Florida and up along the eastern seaboard will remain in place through Wednesday, but will weaken some on Wednesday as a short wave trough moving across the southeastern states impinges upon it. A dry subsident air mass will keep rain out of the forecast tonight, however on Wednesday less suppression from the upper ridge combined with enough low level moisture may support some low-topped showers within the easterly flow across central interior and across southwest Florida during the afternoon where the best moisture will reside and have included a low pop mention (20 percent) in these areas, otherwise dry weather will continue. Highs on Wednesday with continue to run a few degrees above normal with highs climbing to around 80 to the lower 80s along the coast, and mid 80s inland.
137 PM EDT Tue Apr 11 2017 A cold front will push east across the area today, as low pressure over the central Great Lakes moves northeast.
Upper air analysis this morning showed a trough extending from the central plains through Texas to northern Mexico and a ridge to the west. At the surface, a cold front was stretched from Georgetown to Pandale. The cold front will stall and dissipate across our CWA and slight chances for showers and thunderstorms will continue overnight and Wednesday.
348 PM EDT Tue Apr 11 2017 Cold front on the way out this afternoon as temps across the far east CWA are on the way down after attaining highs in the upper 60s. Overcast has held firm over most of the area today and will likely hold through the night as high pressure remains well upstream. Cooler airmass characterized by h85 temps near 0C firmly in place for Wednesday.
105 PM EDT Tue Apr 11 2017 Cooler temperatures can be expected today. High pressure will slide into the region tonight into Wednesday with skies gradually clearing.
322 PM EDT Tue Apr 11 2017 High pressure will remain over the western Atlantic through Wednesday.
155 PM PDT Tue Apr 11 2017 A few weak disturbances will bring cooler temperatures.
258 PM EDT Tue Apr 11 2017 High pressure will persist just north of Bermuda through tonight. A weak cold front will cross the area late tonight into Wednesday morning.
The overall event doesn't look very impressive with a dampened mid level trof and marginal low level moisture.
519 PM EDT Tue Apr 11 2017 Scattered showers and a few rumbles of thunder are expected this evening with a weak cold front. No change was made to the Wednesday high temperature forecast about 5 to 10 degrees cooler than todays readings. High pressure will support dry conditions and seasonably warm temperature for the latter half of the week. The primary weather maker for the weekend will be a low pressure system tracking from the Plains into eastern Canada.
Cold front is hung up very close to the Ohio River, with a decent swath of scattered light to occasionally moderate showers ahead of it. High pressure will ridge in from the north on Wednesday, but upper pattern is flat enough to keep temps quite mild. Not quite jumping on board with the warmer guidance temps, but model consensus keeps highs solidly in the 70s.
Then on Wednesday, the warming trend will continue with highs in the 60s at the lower elevations east of the divide and 50s west.
A couple of storm systems will impact the region through Wednesday resulting in generally light rainfall amounts, breezy winds and cooler temperatures.
320 PM EDT Tue Apr 11 2017 A cold front will move south through the region late Wednesday and Wednesday night, followed by cool high pressure late week. A vorticity shear axis, remnants of the ongoing convection extending from the Mid MS valley southward into La, will get caught up in the westerlies associated with the northern stream trough moving through the Great Lakes. A cold front, preceded by the passage of a pre-frontal trough during the mid to late morning hours, will move through the area Wednesday afternoon and evening. The pre-frontal wind shift with winds becoming west-northwest by the late morning/early afternoon hours will limit/block low-level moisture return ahead of the front, evident in the projection of dewpoints staying in the low to mid 50s, which will suppress destabilization Wednesday afternoon.
A weak upper trough is currently being stretched from the Great Lakes to East Texas.
319 PM CDT Tue Apr 11 2017 Ridge of high pressure to slowly move off to the east by midday on Wednesday. In the meantime, light and variable winds tonight as well as clearing skies, will allow temperatures to dip down into the low to mid 40s. Byrd A bit more active and warmer pattern will evolve through the later half of the week. A weak migratory short wave trof will move through the upper MS Valley on Wednesday night. The greatest coverage and likely MCS will be located along/north of a retreating warm front and along the nose of the LLJ, however there could be some showers and thunderstorms finding there way into the far northern CWA ahead of a sinking cold front and within the broad southwesterly LLJ/WAA regime.
Winds will turn northwest in the afternoon with highs to range from the mid 60s north to the low/mid 70s south.
1237 PM CDT Tue Apr 11 2017 A cold front has cleared the entire area early this morning, ending any precip chances.
Despite ridging building aloft, low lvl moisture should be adequate to interact with the lingering boundary to keep a slt chc of showers or storms on Wednesday.
Upper ridge will set up across the region for the latter half of the work week with weak disturbances riding up along the western and northern periphery, but our region will remain largely warm and dry under the ridge.
229 PM EDT Tue Apr 11 2017 High pressure remains off the Mid Atlantic coast as low pressure tracks across the Great Lakes. A cold front crosses the region Wednesday.
306 PM EDT Tue Apr 11 2017 Scattered showers and possible thunderstorms are expected tonight with a weak cold front. Many locations should be dry by midnight, with showers persisting in the ridges overnight and coming to an end around sunrise. With colder air behind the front, highs on Wednesday should be 5 to 10 degrees cooler than Tuesday's values.
For Wednesday, an upper trough/storm system off the Northwest Coast will send a weak disturbance and moisture into western and southwest Montana after midnight and early morning on Wednesday. The main highlight of Wednesday will be strengthening high pressure with warmer temperatures and lighter winds.
145 PM MST Tue Apr 11 2017 Strengthening high pressure aloft will bring warming temperatures through the middle part of this week as well as very dry conditions. Lighter winds and continued above normal temperatures will return for the upcoming weekend as high pressure once again reestablishes itself over the region. Above normal temperatures and mostly clear skies are still expected during this period as models remain in excellent agreement that heights aloft will gradually rise ahead of long-wave trofing that is expected to develop just off the west coast. Increasing southerly flow is expected to pull somewhat warmer air into the region.
The region will be sitting on the periphery of ridging over the SE U.
High pressure will drift east overnight into western Wisconsin late. The next short wave trough moving through the intermountain west now is forecast to move east into the Dakotas late tonight.
130 PM EDT Tue Apr 11 2017 A trough of low pressure moves into the region this afternoon. Summer like temperatures will continue today until the trough passes.
/issued 920 AM EDT Tue Apr 11 2017/ A dry subsident air mass associated with deep layered ridging over the region will support another dry day across the forecast area. Temperatures will again rise to a few degrees above normal with highs climbing to around 80 to the lower 80s along the coast, and mid 80s inland.
152 PM EDT Tue Apr 11 2017 A weak cold front slowly crosses tonight.
134 PM EDT Tue Apr 11 2017 Moisture increasing as weak cold front approaches.
Clouds are finally started to increase across the western sections of the forecast area this afternoon ahead of weak cold front. Wednesday skies become mostly sunny again by afternoon with high temperatures only a couple degrees cooler.
654 PM EDT Tue Apr 11 2017 High pressure ridge across the area will remain in control of the region today with a weak cold front arriving Wednesday.
330 PM CDT Tue Apr 11 2017 The cold front continues to move slowly through the Mid-South this afternoon.
Clouds will stick around through this evening as low pressure spins over eastern Lake Superior. Light westerly winds will prevail today, then become variable overnight due to high pressure drifting overhead. A developing WAA regime takes hold which erodes the lingering influence of low level thermal trough. Temps will get a boost over the chill of Tuesday though onshore flow will keep lakeside areas on the cooler side.
232 PM MDT Tue Apr 11 2017 Upper flow is nearly zonal across the northern plains, with weak ridging over the Rockies. With high pressure at the surface, winds are generally light and variable. The low level jet will increase ahead of the trough, resulting in enhanced theta-e advection over southwestern/south central SD. Showers/storms will shift eastward Wednesday as another ridge builds over the region, and skies will gradually clear.
High pressure will help skies clear tonight with patchy frost possible over Lower Michigan into northern Indiana and far northwest Ohio as lows fall into the 30s. Chilly air behind the cold front was spreading over the area early this afternoon.
The 19z MSAS surface analysis showed a couple areas of weak low pressure to our east with a cold front stretched southwest toward the Ozarks. The visible satellite imagery indicated the back edge of the low clouds along the MN/WI border making a slow movement to the east. A ridge of high pressure is forecast to build into the region after midnight. Look for readings to dip down into the middle to upper teens far north, to the lower 30s east-central WI. The return to south-southwest winds and WAA will bring warmer air into the forecast area with max temperatures reaching the 55-60 degree range over most locations. Wednesday Night Through Tuesday Next chance of rain Wednesday night associated with a quick moving short wave trough and weak frontal system.
After that, High pressure fills in its wake, centering over Indiana and the southern Great Lakes by Wed am.
Wednesday, mid-level ridging will build across the Southern Plains along with very dry air moving in from 700 to 400mb.
However, overall rain chances remain on the low end around 20-30 percent.
Upper ridge and drier air will be in place on Wednesday and most of Wednesday night, so do not have rain mentioned on either period. Am going a bit warmer than the previous forecast for each period, as with lack of significant convection over the area tonight we probably will not see a thunderstorm cool-down. Basically, going on the higher side of guidance for temperatures.
Lots of cirrus is visible in satellite imagery across the intermountain west ahead of this low, and expect this high cloud cover to filter in across the local area overnight. expect the upper level low across the west coast to be exiting the local area Wednesday night.
214 PM EDT Tue Apr 11 2017 High pressure ridge across the area will remain in control of the region today with a weak cold front arriving Wednesday.
Warmer Temperatures Return Mid Week. Clearing skies and light winds tonight will allow temperatures to be cool in the lower to middle 40s. High pressure move off to the east of the area tomorrow and a return of southerly winds Wednesday afternoon.
/issued 327 AM CDT Tue Apr 11 2017/ A persistent upper trough over the eastern Pacific, or western U.
Even with an approaching weak cold front, mainly VFR conditions are expected.
428 PM EDT Tue Apr 11 2017 Through tonight: Latest water vapor imagery shows troughing along the central CONUS with upper level ridging stretching from the eastern Gulf to the western Atlantic.
Expect to see thunderstorm activity decrease and push further southeast out of the forecast area during the late afternoon, ending shortly after 00Z as the trough at the surface and aloft progress out of the forecast area. Showers and thunderstorms travel east of the region Wednesday night as upper ridging builds over the High Plains.
Low clouds associated with low pressure spinning over eastern Upper Michigan will be slow to clear this evening, but expect the clearing trend from west to east through 1 or 2 am. High pressure will work its way across Wisconsin late tonight through Wednesday afternoon which will help clear these low clouds out. Dewpoints are in the lower to mid 30s this afternoon. That will keep temps cooler by the lake. Inland highs are forecast in the lower 60s.
Quiet conditions across the region continue as deep layer ridging remains entrenched over portions of the east coast. Expect overnight lows a few degrees warmer than last night as a result, with temperatures in the upper 50s to low 60s.
This will push a cold front southward into Kansas with showers/storms possible for Wednesday afternoon, mainly for locations northwest of a Salina to Great Bend line.
312 PM CDT Tue Apr 11 2017 Night will begin quiet as weak high pressure gradually shifts east through Minnesota and Iowa.
155 PM EDT Tue Apr 11 2017 Aviation Dry weather is forecast today through Wednesday as high pressure builds into the Great Lakes from the west.
342 PM EDT Tue Apr 11 2017 A weak cold front will move east of the area early this evening.
1245 PM CDT Tue Apr 11 2017 Cold front will continue to push off to the south and east further away from the CWA during the day today. These low clouds combined with modest cold advection aloft yield high temperatures today about 15 degrees cooler than yesterday and leaned aob the slightly cooler MET guidance for today's high temperatures. High pressure will then dominate the sensible weather for the tonight period as it will be centered across western Illinois early this evening. Lows in the low to mid 40s seem reasonable but again leaned cool given the synoptic setup and upstream readings.
High pressure that covers most of Nebraska & KS has produced a mostly clear & chilly night across KICT Country. Temperatures across most of Central KS have settled into the lower & mid 30s where a Frost Advisory is in effect for areas generally NW of a line from Great Bend to Salina until 9 AM CDT. Best chances for rain would occur Thu & Thu Night as a somewhat stronger mid-upr trof takes on a negative tilt as it pushes E/NE across KS & Nebraska. Fri-Sat: There'll be a brief rainfall intermission as the negatively- tilted mid-upr trof shears as it approaches the Mid-MS Valley.
325 PM CDT Tue Apr 11 2017 Quiet conditions are expected tonight as high pressure slides east of the region. The forecast period opens up with an inverted trough across the Central Plains and a leeside low forming across Montana.
A warm front will develop likely across southern portions of the CWA.
although the far east may fall below freezing if winds decouple and go light. Dry weather on Wednesday with a low pressure system moving across the central plains and an area of showers lifting north into the far southern zones.
Temps will start to moderate back to seasonal normals for Mon-Tue with most sites in the low 90s. Attention will then turn to a fairly substantial cold front that is set to move through the region Fri afternoon through Fri night.
There is a surge of northeasterlies progged on monday, but there is no cooler air associated with it. 5 C warmer than this afternoon's. Mid and high level moisture will increase over Colorado late Monday as a weak upper trough develops along the west coast.
1015 PM MDT SUN AUG 14 2016 A ridge of high pressure over the Great Basin will slowly shift east on Monday as a weak area of low pressure pushes east over the area. High pressure will slowly push east of the area through the middle of the week.
Atlantic ridge/Bermuda High reinforces itself Monday which should limit convection.
Forecast area continues to be sandwiched between upper trof to the north and stream of moisture moving from south to northeast. Mid to high clouds and small impulses of energy lifting toward the area from the southwest as base of larger scale upper trof moves slowly eastward. Sunshine today and slightly warmer air aloft has boosted highs into the upper 80s, mitigated in part by dewpoints in the upper 50s to near 60. Lows fall into the middle to lower 60s tonight, followed by a rise back into the 80s tomorrow with some western counties near 90 as warmer temperatures advect in aloft over Central Kansas.
Tonight THROUGH Monday Ahead of a cold front strong wind gusts and low relative humidity with a very dry unstable air mass will produce red flag conditions central and south. Cold front through much of bighorn basin. Cold front will bring strong wind shift to northeast and very gusty winds. Cooler temperatures will surge south through the night and may make it all of the way south into nw Colorado by sunrise.
Highest threat for showers and t-storms is Monday night just ahead of the front and short wave trough.
VFR conditions will continue through the TAF period as high pressure maintains influence. Light southeast winds tonight will become more easterly Monday afternoon, then northeast Monday night as low pressure tracks from central Illinois to Lower Michigan.
Although we were missed on the latest ASCAT satellite pass, suspect that winds are a bit higher over the Florida Straits south of the Lower Keys to the Dry Tortugas due to the evening coastal jets near Cuba. A small craft advisory will continue for the western Florida Straits south of the Lower Keys through the Dry Tortugas due to reports from the Nancy Foster, and the evening coastal jet along Cuba. Small craft should exercise caution on Hawk Channel, the Gulf waters north of the Lower Keys, surrounding the Dry Tortugas, and west of mainland Monroe County overnight.