Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
910 PM CDT Sat May 13 2017 High pressure ridge is over the area so winds are light out of the west and skies are clear. Area of high pressure currently southwest of Illinois will settle into the lower Mississippi Valley overnight, resulting in winds swinging around to the southwest with time. The upper ridge over the Plains will slowly build eastward, and keep our area mainly clear into Sunday.
1002 PM EDT Sat May 13 2017 High pressure will build in from the west tonight, then slide south Sunday. A weak and dry cold front will move through from the north Sunday night.
High pressure will take over and return above normal temperatures for a change. Temperatures will cool into the lower 50s and mid 40s in the mountains.
We had little to no fog in Medford this morning, and while we're off to a colder start than yesterday, sunny skies and a warmer atmosphere aloft support even warmer temperatures today. It will probably be even warmer tomorrow when some spots around Brookings could touch 80! -Wright. High pressure will dominate the area with warm temperatures across all of our forecast area. The thermal trough along the coast will maintain dry offshore flow for southern Curry County.
We had little to no fog in Medford this morning, and while we're off to a colder start than yesterday, sunny skies and a warmer atmosphere aloft support even warmer temperatures today. It will probably be even warmer tomorrow when some spots around Brookings could touch 80! -Wright. Skies will become mostly clear this afternoon as high pressure offshore continues to bring dry northeast flow over the area. High pressure will dominate the area with warm temperatures across all of our forecast area. The thermal trough along the coast will maintain dry offshore flow for southern Curry County.
Sat - Tue Longwave upper low remains northeast of Hudson Bay through the period. Longwave ridge off the west cost of North America weakens over AK. Snow and the lower ceilings will move off to the southeast after 06Z, and skies will begin to clear out.
959 AM MST Tue Feb 6 2018 A broad upper trough covers the CONUS, with a wave over the Rockies region, and a jet streak sliding across SD. An upper ridge will build over the western states Wednesday, and warmer air will push into the area ahead of the next system, with highs ranging from the lower 20s across northwestern SD to near 40 across parts of northeastern WY.
334 PM EST Tue Feb 6 2018 High pressure will continue to dominate the weather across South Florida tonight and a cold front will remain stalled out just to the south of the region. High pressure will continue to remain in place for the middle to the end of the work week. As the ridge continues to expand to the north, it will help to lift the previously stalled frontal boundary back up to the north as well.
Warm frontal overrunning showers expected to increase during the afternoon south to north across the area, with the main axis lifting north of the area this evening. Have adjusted POPs for this afternoon and tonight to allow axis to move north of the area this evening, but then high POPs late tonight as cold front and large wave of precip moves our way, into Wednesday. Chattanooga Airport, TN 50 46 54 30 / 40 90 100 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 47 43 51 27 / 50 90 100 20 Oak Ridge, TN 47 42 52 27 / 60 90 100 20 Tri Cities Airport, TN 44 39 53 24 / 40 80 100 40 TN.
1032 AM CST Tue Feb 6 2018 16Z surface map shoed 1033 MB high pressure centered just northwest of the local area, bringing light northeast winds and cold air. Late morning readings ranged from the single digits over deeper snow cover over the northern CWA, to the low/mid 20s south of I-70. Light snow falling early could end up melting on roads and quickly refreezing as temps will be in the 20s anyway. After midnight or so, the precip along and south of Interstate 70 switches to freezing rain as the system loses ice crystals aloft. With snow turning to freezing rain, have issued a Winter Weather Advisory in the southeast for tonight. Wednesday night chilly into the single digits again before the lows climb back to closer to normal by the end of the week.
TFJ High pressure moved through Northeast Montana overnight giving most of the region bitter cold temperatures under clear skies. The high will move to the east this morning and a weak frontal system will move through the forecast area today. Another high pressure system will bring partly cloudy skies to the northeast half of the forecast area tonight.
334 PM CST Tue Feb 6 2018 18Z surface data has high pressure over the western Great Lakes and upper Mississippi Valley.
A storm system was taking shape over the Lower Ms Valley this afternoon. Wednesday night will bring clearing with cold temperatures, in the lower 20s. If winds drop off enough, some patchy freezing fog will form, especially near lakes and rivers.
Forecast soundings to indicate a brief nose of warmer air aloft to allow for a quick period of sleet and freezing rain, before deeper moisture is lost after midnight. Lift combined with the remaining shallow moisture should lead to several hours of freezing drizzle overnight.
IFR/MVFR conditions will continue over the region this afternoon and evening with areas of light freezing rain/freezing drizzle spreading across eastern Oklahoma/northwest Arkansas. Temperatures in the Arkansas river valley should remain above freezing before precip shifts east by late evening. /Issued 1056 AM CST Tue Feb 6 2018/ Areas of light freezing rain starting to develop across portions of southeast Oklahoma late this morning, primarily in Pittsburg county. Temperatures further east, in the higher terrain areas, are expected to remain above freezing for much of the afternoon before stronger cold air advection develops.
Meanwhile, an active southwest flow aloft in advance of an upper trough will bring a series of upper level disturbances to the region. Forecast soundings suggest the possibility of freezing rain between 4 AM and 8 AM Wednesday morning for areas north of a Rocksprings to Mountain Home to Llano line. While we do expect precipitation to occur, we do have lower confidence with regards to the temperature being able to drop to freezing.
SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday Night): Forecast remains in tact with a decent cold front pushing through the CWA Wednesday morning and early afternoon.
310 PM CST Tue Feb 6 2018 Clouds increasing out ahead of the next trough. The trough exits the area through early Wednesday morning and we expect clouds to erode from west to east during the morning/afternoon.
Not too much to update this morning with cloud cover overhead and approaching trough bringing showers to the area later today.
111 PM EST Tue Feb 6 2018 High pressure off the coast will move out to sea overnight. A cold front will bring widespread showers Wednesday into Wednesday night. Unsettled weather is expected again over the weekend as another cold front crosses the area. High pressure ridging into the area from the Mid-Atlantic region will move out to sea this afternoon. As high pressure moves east, warm air advection spreading over the area will promote above normal temperatures with highs in the 60s and lower 70s. Weak disturbances in southwest flow aloft combined with increasing low level moisture ahead of an approaching cold front will bring cloudy skies to the region overnight.
The forecast area remains in a northwest flow aloft between a ridge in the Pacific Ocean and a trough over the midwest. Temperatures will be a few degrees cooler than yesterday with highs in the lower to mid 50s in the lower elevations and in the mid 40s to lower 50s in the mountains.
100 PM EST Tue Feb 6 2018 High pressure off the coast will move out to sea overnight. A cold front will bring widespread showers Wednesday into Wednesday night. Unsettled weather is expected again over the weekend as another cold front crosses the area. High pressure ridging into the area from the Mid-Atlantic region will move out to sea this afternoon. As high pressure moves east, warm air advection spreading over the area will promote above normal temperatures with highs in the 60s and lower 70s. Weak disturbances in southwest flow aloft combined with increasing low level moisture ahead of an approaching cold front will bring cloudy skies to the region overnight.
Highs this afternoon should range in the 20s for most areas, and could reach the lower 30s in the Wyoming/Lackawanna Valleys of NEPA.
A strong ridge of high pressure will remain over the eastern Pacific resulting in dry weather conditions and unseasonably warm temperatures across the region through late week. Given the tighten pressure gradient, breezy to locally gusty winds persist in the higher elevations this afternoon, especially in the North Bay Mountains, East Bay Hills as well as the Santa Cruz Mountains.
The low clouds and areas of light snow should diminish by noon. An upper level trough was moving across the area early this morning which has some mid lvl QG ascent associated with it.
Still expecting freezing drizzle to develop over south central OK from 18-21Z this afternoon. Any freezing drizzle that develops should remain south and east of all of the terminals.
The snow is beginning to end across our western zones and the snow will gradually end from west to east late this afternoon or early evening as the mid level trough axis translates eastward. The winter weather advisory has been expanded to include Merrick and Polk Counties and has been extended in time across the Highway 81 corridor until 7 pm.
Patchy late night fog east of I-25 as the lower levels near saturation. Warmer temperatures based on rising heights and thicknesses. Some locations near I-25 will remain above freezing all night.
Meanwhile, frzg lvls lowering with elevated trough along and north of I-20, where discrete storms with high reflectivities bringing an uptick in both ltg activity and hail reports.
High pressure centered over the eastern Pacific will continue to provide for unseasonably warm temperatures and dry conditions for the remainder of the week. Large ridge centered in the eastern Pacific continues to provide our area with mainly clear skies and unseasonably warm temperatures.
Water vapor imagery continues to show us in a wswrly flow aloft with a longwave trof axis over the wrn CONUS. Showers and the occasional storm will continue until early tomorrow when the trof out west pushes ewd and helps shove the front through the area. With the early arrival of the front across the nrn zones, the temperatures are not forecast to rise much tomorrow, topping out in the lower 50s.
255 PM CST Tue Feb 6 2018 (Today and Tonight) An approaching disturbance moving in from the west combined with the recent cold frontal passage will result in a chance for freezing rain and drizzle across the area. Some icing on elevated surfaces such as bridges and overpasses is possible late this evening into Wednesday morning. Additional shower activity is possible late this evening and into Wednesday morning with temperatures at or just below freezing. Otherwise, low temperatures in the mid 20s across the Big Country to just above freezing along the Interstate 10 corridor are anticipated.
Meanwhile, patchy light freezing drizzle is possible late this afternoon and evening across far southeast Kansas, as lift and low- level moistening increases.
After warm front moves north of the area, ceilings will likely rise for a short while, but then when large shield of rain and cold front move in ceilings and visibilities will plummet into IFR territory late tonight and into Wednesday. Lowest confidence is what will happen with ceilings late this afternoon and through the evening, as warm front lifts to our north, feel that ceilings should rise, but a little wary about how much--going above 3000 feet at all sites, but see the possibility of staying around 2000 feet or could break out to 10,000 feet this evening.
High pressure over the eastern Pacific will continue to result in dry weather conditions across the region through the forecast period. Clear sky conditions prevail across the region this morning with most North Bay locations a few to as much as 16 degrees warmer than 24 hours ago. With that said, breezy to gusty winds persist in the higher elevations of the North Bay Mountains and East Bay Hills. Upper level high pressure continues to remain off the West Coast. The orientation of interior high pressure and coastal low pressure has led to very gusty winds over the Bay Area Hills.
Precip in the Advisory/Warning areas will begin as a brief period of snow late this evening, but change to freezing rain around midnight as the warm nose punches northeast into central Kentucky. The warned area is aligned with the highest probabilities of. Sfc temp forecasts are in line with a raw model consensus which gives a bit more credence to the cooler GFS and ECMWF solutions, but just 1 degree either way will make a huge difference in ice accumulations. Eventually look for a changeover to freezing rain with around a tenth of an inch of ice glaze. Impacts to travel will be fairly widespread, especially during the Wednesday AM commute as temps hover near freezing. Most locations will see a period of freezing drizzle later Wednesday morning as we lose ice aloft during the waning stages of precip.
Currently have MVFR/IFR cigs affecting all but CNM late this morning with a cold front stalled near a CNM-PEQ-FST line. Light rain or drizzle (or freezing drizzle at MAF) will be possible late tonight but not included in the current TAF attm due to low confidence. /issued 341 AM CST Tue Feb 6 2018/ A cold front is currently plunging southward into the CWA with gusty northeast winds behind it. Cold temperatures will be present tonight behind the front along with a slight chance of rain and/or freezing drizzle. High temperatures mostly in the 50s are expected on Wednesday with a broad upper trough passing over the eastern half of the country.
This scenario is expected to continue this evening north of a warm front. The axis of moisture and rain rates is expected to lift farther and farther north with the warm front during the evening, but then late tonight as a cold front starts taking control the axis of moisture will get reoriented to NNE-SSW along the front. A brief period of upslope snow showers is possible in the mountains Wednesday night, but the air mass will be drying pretty quickly as subsidence increases, so would expect only a couple of tenths accumulation in the highest terrain.
1056 AM CST Tue Feb 6 2018 Areas of light freezing rain starting to develop across portions of southeast Oklahoma late this morning, primarily in Pittsburg county. Temperatures further east, in the higher terrain areas, are expected to remain above freezing for much of the afternoon before stronger cold air advection develops.
Upper level wave/circulation tracking through northern Ohio Valley early this morning, just not far enough north to getter better moisture/rates into southeast Michigan, and accumulations appeared to have come up on the lower end. It is this northern Stream Wave, which looks to become the more dominant player, as 6 HR height falls merge over the Midwest Tonight, although not all the upper level energy/PV from the Four Corners region ejects northeast, and thus one of the reason why the low tracking through/near Pittsburgh PA on Wednesday is not expected to deepen fast enough to have a significant impact on our weather.
There is some turning in the low level wind profile as well, mainly near coastal areas. Rain chances are high area wide through the day Wednesday as a cold front crosses the central Gulf Coast.
A short wave trough off to the northwest will also be tracking southeast and across the eastern Dakotas tonight. An area of low pressure and surface front will slowly track southeastward across southwest South Dakota early in the forecast period.
The clouds have held temperatures down although we are finally starting to see temperatures above freezing for all but a few stations, and most of those are across the northern and central Rolling Plains. North to northeast wind tomorrow will keep a bit of cold air advection in place but clear skies through the day should allow highs to climb back into the low to mid 50s across the area.
Return to IFR xpctd areawide rather rapidly this evening (a little slower at KLRD) before a strong cold front sweeps S overnight.
/issued 300 AM CST Tue Feb 6 2018/ Today will feel starkly different from yesterday courtesy of a cold front currently moving through the region. Given the cold incoming temperatures, freezing drizzle/rain will be possible at least during the morning hours. At the same time, surface ridging will be pushing into the area. However, much of the area will remain unseasonably cool behind this cold front coupled with the low stratus hanging on for most if not all of the day. Another reinforcing shot of surface ridging will make its way through the area tonight. Although skies will be mostly sunny on Wednesday, temperatures will still be cool under the influence of the persistent surface ridging.
1130 AM CST Tue Feb 6 2018 16Z surface map showed 1033 MB high pressure centered just northwest of the local area, bringing light northeast winds and cold air. Late morning readings ranged from the single digits over deeper snow cover over the northern CWA, to the low/mid 20s south of I-70. Light snow falling early could end up melting on roads and quickly refreezing as temps will be in the 20s anyway. After midnight or so, the precip along and south of Interstate 70 switches to freezing rain as the system loses ice crystals aloft. With snow turning to freezing rain, have issued a Winter Weather Advisory in the southeast for tonight. Wednesday night chilly into the single digits again before the lows climb back to closer to normal by the end of the week.
A disturbance dropping south from Utah into Arizona will cause locally breezy north winds through early this evening along with slightly cooler temperatures.
226 PM CST Tue Feb 6 2018 Water vapor satellite this afternoon shows a couple of short wave troughs that will impact the area tonight. This will set up a bit more of a zonal flow which will have the potential to bring several fast moving short wave troughs across the region.
The combination of some weak isentropic ascent and approach of a vigorous mid level trough, will result in light snow potential tonight into Wednesday morning. Cloud cover may be sluggish to decrease with low level thermal trough and lingering mid level cyclonic flow.
Coastal trough is continuing to push inland, but is starting to lose its characteristics. Brush Country may be cooler than forecast if stratus/light precip persists through the day.
A low pressure system is moving up the Appalachians over the southeastern portion of the CWA, bringing in ample Gulf of Mexico moisture. The main concern with this system is the near freezing temperatures in the Bluegrass overnight and the strong warm nose seen in model soundings setting up over the Commonwealth. There is a possibility that the northernmost part of the CWA might see some sleet/snow mix, but with how prominent the warm nose is, the precip will most likely be freezing rain. The difficulty with this part of the forecast is that even one degree could mean the difference between rain and freezing rain. However, the surface temps in the Bluegrass region look to be just above freezing which will cause precip to initially be freezing rain.
A quasi-stationary front currently resides to the northwest of our area, stretching from the lower Mississippi Valley region across central AL into northern GA.
JHM Feb 6 Feb 7 Feb 8 MOD 72 (1963) 74 (1987) 76 (2006) RBL 78 (2011) 80 (2016) 81 (2016) RDD 76 (2011) 80 (2016) 82 (2016) DTS 74 (2011) 72 (2006) 74 (2016) SAC 75 (2011) 70 (2016) 75 (2016) SCK 70 (1987) 72 (1987) 72 (2016) Strong high pressure ridging over the eastern Pacific will continue to dominate the weather pattern over the next several days. Overall airmass warms just slightly today but windier conditions could mix down slightly cooler air.
Along I-35 terminals, guidances are slow to show an mvfr cig and will introduce 2500-3000 ft cigs in the evening hours, given the lowering trends just upstream. With the subsident side of the weak upper low reaching I-35 Friday evening, a quick drop to lifr or worse conditions are agreed upon by guidances. For tonight, a coastal trough across the southern Texas coast will deepen. The cyclonic flow associated with this trough will bring an increase in moisture to the coastal plains tonight. Given the increase in moisture along with lift from an upper low to our northwest, we will continue to mention a low chance for rain near the coastal plains tonight. On Friday, the coastal trough should move a little farther inland as the upper level low moves across southern Texas.
Under clear skies, all but one site has broken the freezing mark as of 3 PM/21Z (Winchester which is still stuck at 30). That said, with dewpoints rising into the mid and upper teens, some patchy freezing fog is also possible, especially near waterways, and this will be included in the forecast.
917 PM EST Thu Jan 18 2018 High pressure centered south of the region will extend up the western side of the Appalachians through the end of the week.
A slow moving cold front continues to move across portions of eastern Oregon which will slowly move off to the southeast overnight. The upper level trough behind the front will remain over the region on Friday leading to some showers through the days.
Meanwhile, high and eventually mid clouds will spread into the region ahead of an area of low pressure moving across southern Canada. Southerly winds ahead of the low will bring mild temperatures and increasing moisture to the region. A warm front will push northward across the region tonight, followed by a cold front on Friday. Low level moisture pushing across the region on Friday could bring some light freezing drizzle or drizzle to northern areas.
Near Critical Fire Weather Conditions over Parts of the Area Upper ridge over Colorado will gradually weaken tonight and Friday, allowing increasing southwesterly flow over the region. West to southwest winds will begin to increase in the high country late tonight with gusts to 40 mph possible in the mountains by Friday afternoon.
/issued 413 PM CST Thu Jan 18 2018/ Clouds invading from the west will help to hold overnight temperatures up from the past several nights as an upper level low brings in mid-level moisture. But this will still be about 10 degrees warmer than the last few nights. The warmup will continue into Friday as high pressure slides off to the east and return flow spills in from the gulf.
Significant moisture remains across eastern Oregon this evening and radar appears to be showing the back edge of the heavier precipitation moving closer to the Lower Treasure Valley.
912 PM CST Thu Jan 18 2018 Abundant cirrus streaming over the region this evening allowing temperatures to stay in the lower 30s as of 9 pm. Clouds will break up in patches overnight making the low temperatures forecast rather challenging. Upper level ridging will continue to draw up warmer air into the region.
Locations under a clear sky earlier this evening (or still in the case of the aforementioned), mainly across the northern/eastern forecast area, dropped off quickly, falling to or below freezing. Farther west, where the clouds pushed in earlier, some areas are actually warmer now than they were at noon, experiencing only a slow fall since sunset. /issued 413 PM CST Thu Jan 18 2018/ Clouds invading from the west will help to hold overnight temperatures up from the past several nights as an upper level low brings in mid-level moisture. But this will still be about 10 degrees warmer than the last few nights. The warmup will continue into Friday as high pressure slides off to the east and return flow spills in from the gulf.
Western Washington will be under the influence of an upper trough for much of the week for showery weather.