Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Tonight, convection should decrease shortly after sunset as the mid-level pattern remains fairly unsupportive of continuing activity with the ridge axis overhead through the Midwest and loss of daytime heating.
230 PM CDT Fri Sep 22 2017 Strong ridging, sunny skies and brisk southerly winds ahead of the next cold front will keep the above normal temperatures in the region.
332 PM CDT Fri Sep 22 2017 Primary concern will be severe potential this afternoon and into this evening along and ahead of warm frontal boundary. CAM guidance all in good agreement in keeping warm sector dry with capping and best potential along and ahead of warm front over northern MN. If storms can become surface based will have to watch tor potential with warm front in place. With cooler airmass in place, instability weak so strong storms not anticipated.
Surface ridging will keep winds light through the period, generally less than 5kts.
150 PM EDT Fri Sep 22 2017 Fair weather high pressure will keep temperatures mild and skies mainly clear through the weekend. A persistent upper atmospheric ridge will strengthen through Saturday, pushing temperatures well above normal for late- September. As the ridge strengthens Saturday, temperatures will push into the lower and middle-80s across the region.
245 PM CDT Fri Sep 22 2017 Despite the calendar indicating the beginning of fall this afternoon, the persistent upper level ridge over the area will keep the summer-like temperatures around through Saturday.
This should be west of a line from Cambridge to Greeley. This will start to impart some upper-level forcing into our area as well as gradually nudge a surface cold front closer to the area.
338 PM CDT Fri Sep 22 2017 Jose and Maria continue off the east coast with a ridge of high pressure from east Texas to Great Lakes. Deep trough over the western Conus. Dry air being entrained from the southwest where tds in the low 40s. Areas of rain continuing as energy streams out of the trough to the west and abundant moisture advection coming across southern into central plains.
A large, cold and moist low pressure area continues to spin over the northern Rocky Mountain region this afternoon.
304 PM EDT Fri Sep 22 2017 The first day of fall is probably warmer all around then any day this past summer. This persistence will continue through the weekend as the center of the upper level ridge will remain parked over lower Michigan. Highs and lows will be about the same as today's through the weekend with heat indices in the low to mid 90s along with mainly clear skies and light winds.
346 PM CDT Fri Sep 22 2017 The surface cold front is knocking on our doorstep late this afternoon, with the thermal ridge ahead of it producing near- record temps/dewpoints and attendant widespread heat indices in the upper 90s to lower 100s across central/southern MN into west central WI. As the low level jet re-intensifies tonight, expect showers and thunderstorms to develop over far western Minnesota in the vicinity of the front. In the big picture, we'll see the western trough ever so slowly shift eastward over the weekend, with its associated frontal boundary grudgingly moving along with it.
Moisture will continue to increase Saturday with the closed low dropping south into southern NV and the main area of uplift shift to the front range. The relatively deep closed low pressure system is expected to continue to impact the region during the latter part of the weekend.
Area radars show diurnally-driven convection over the higher terrain out west, and hi-res models suggest this should die out w/loss of daytime heating. Meanwhile, return flow will be on the increase in response to leeside troughing on the Front Range, developing into a 40-45kt LLJ overnight, keeping winds up and bringing in IFR/LIFR cigs to most terminals. Heavy rain and flash flooding possible this weekend into much of Our region sits between a large upper trough that has developed across the West and a ridge over the Ohio River Valley. Other than some isolated storms in the higher terrain today, the main show begins Saturday.
Meanwhile, local radars are detecting widely scattered showers and thunderstorms with some cells impacting the western half of the Lower Keys. On our marine district, winds vary from northeast to east at 10 knots or less except north near 10 knots along the Lower Keys westward to beyond Dry tortugas and both north and southward for over 40 nm. Our region will lie between Hurricane Marine sliding mainly eastward of the Bahamian chain and a mid latitude trough digging into the eastern Gulf of Mexico and the Florida peninsula. Above normal uncertainty with exiting Hurricane Maria lifting well out into the northwest Atlantic ocean and the extent of a mid latitude trough setting up near us.
314 PM CDT Fri Sep 22 2017 An UA ridge draped from the Great Lakes region southwest to across the majority of the Four-State Region has led to sea-breeze convection having a tough time making it to the region /versus what we have seen the last several days/. However, a weak shear axis on the eastern periphery of the aforementioned UA ridge have aided in developing isolated showers across northeast LA and southwest AR, nearing Monroe LA and Texarkana AR respectively. Furthermore, 21Z metars reported temps in the lower 90s, making it unseasonably warm for the first day of the Fall season.
Upper low centered over southwest Idaho this afternoon will continue to transport moisture and energy over the region this evening and overnight. Showers will persist into Saturday as the aforementioned upper low drops into the Great Basin region and continues to send waves of energy through the area.
Upper level high pressure will remain the dominant feature with VFR conditions expected. H850 temps of 18C+ keeping temps above average in the upper 80s and low 90s, although NAM guidance tries to knock those values down into the 16-17C range by tomorrow afternoon, so perhaps a degree or two cooler, especially in higher terrain across northern AR. Southerly flow relaxes a bit today as the tight pressure gradient across the High Plains is buffered by the ridge. Models in good agreement slowly nudging an upper low our way as the period ends, which would predominantly result in increased cloud cover across the southern counties.
Expect clearing on the east side tonight and below freezing temperatures are still expected in the Klamath and Tulelake basins.
1212 PM CDT Fri Sep 22 2017 Broad ridging over the Mississippi Valley and deep southwest flow aloft over the eastern Rockies will continue to result in above normal temperatures and humid conditions through at least Saturday for the entirety of the CWA.
319 PM CDT Fri Sep 22 2017 Look for a quiet next 24 hours as ridging aloft continues to dominate the weather across eastern KS. Warm and humid conditions will remain in place since the surface front will remain nearly stationary across NE and CO as the deep upper trough continues to dig across the West. Only minor change in weather appears to be weak CAA as the low level thermal ridge and upper level ridge shifts northeast on Saturday. This should keep highs a degree or two cooler than today. Main focus for the forecast remains the high amplitude trough that is out west moving closer to the area with a frontal boundary.
656 PM EDT Fri Sep 22 2017 Upper ridge will remain anchored over the area, providing nearly calm wind conditions (outside late day lake breeze considerations) and mainly clear skies. The warm, humid airmass associated with the ridge will allow for some patchy fog development again overnight with MVFR to perhaps a period of IFR vsbys late. The first day of fall is probably warmer all around then any day this past summer. This persistence will continue through the weekend as the center of the upper level ridge will remain parked over lower Michigan. Highs and lows will be about the same as today's through the weekend with heat indices in the low to mid 90s along with mainly clear skies and light winds.
145 PM MST Fri Sep 22 2017 A low pressure system and cold front that is now sweeping through the southwest will bring substantially cooler temperatures across the region this weekend.
337 PM EDT Fri Sep 22 2017 A large ridge over the eastern US and Hurricane Maria staying well east, is forecast to keep the flow across the region on the light side.
546 PM CDT Fri Sep 22 2017 Despite the calendar indicating the beginning of fall this afternoon, the persistent upper level ridge over the area will keep the summer-like temperatures around through Saturday.
An upper level trof will linger along the Coastal Plain today, with light northerly flow at the surface. This pattern will last through the weekend, with some modestly drier air edging into central NC later Saturday as high pressure builds down the Atlantic coast. Weak high pressure will persist over the area tonight and the upper trof will edge nearer the coast.
Upper low is centered over southwest Idaho early this morning. Webcams are showing periods of heavy snow in the high country, which is confirmed by the snotels. Another strong lobe rotates around the upper low Saturday/Saturday Night but is progged to affect primarily the southern and eastern sections of the CWA.
For Saturday, upper ridge will be over the Ohio valley into the mid-Atlantic states with broad upper trough over the northern Gulf coasts. Ridging and generally dry ground will allow temperatures to warm nicely again Saturday. High pressure will dominate area weather through much of the extended.
1145 AM MDT Fri Sep 22 2017 A combination of satellite and upper atmospheric observations shows an extensive upper-level trough encompassing much of the western US early this AM.
241 PM EDT Fri Sep 22 2017 Post-Tropical Cyclone Jose will continue to weaken as it lingers off the New England coast through the weekend. Meanwhile, high pressure will expand into the Mid-Atlantic. Post-Tropical Cyclone Jose continues to spin just off the coast of SE New England. High pressure at the surface and aloft will be in control of our weather pattern over the weekend, as PTC Jose weakens and shifts a bit further offshore. High pressure in combination with NNE flow will allow for continued dry weather and above normal temperatures.
226 PM MDT Fri Sep 22 2017 The latest satellite images had a large upper low spinning over the western CONUS with deep southwest flow over the CWA. A surface cold front had pushed completely through the CWA with gusty northwest winds and cooler air in its wake.
After an extended wet and cool period throughout the region, a steady warming and drying trend is expected to unfold over the next several days as high pressure reclaims the west coast. While temperatures overall are expected to be slightly warmer than they were the night before, a few protected pockets will likely see temperatures in the low to mid 30s yet again.
Winds during the time the snow falls look to remain on the lower end. An upper level low moving through the Northern Plains will increase precipitation chances over the region Saturday.
Early this morning, high pressure was located across the area. This area will see the lowest temperatures today as clouds move into the area. Tonight, slightly stronger winds and southerly flow will lead to warmer temperatures than this morning as our next system moves towards our area.
Afternoon highs will warm into the low to mid 30s.
Clouds, however, will be increasing again later tonight into Saturday morning as an upper level trough moves out of the northern Rockies into the western high plains. A surface cold front will precede the upper system and is expected to reach eastern Nebraska by late Saturday morning and southwest Iowa by mid to late afternoon.
A compact upper low will drop into the central/southern Plains Saturday night, with the frontal system and associated precipitation shifting east of the area.
Broad H5 trofing continues to highlight the pattern aloft across much of the east/central CONUS, while ridging prevails out west. At the surface, high pressure centered along the I10 corridor region of north FL favors swly flow into middle/east TN setting up a weak warm frontal convergence axis. Temperatures tonight will generally hover around normal with the exception of any snowfall affected regions where mins are fcst a few degrees cooler.
Winds will relax by sunset, but the cloud cover and an H85 thermal ridge will keep temps fairly mild tonight. Despite lift and forcing, some dry air remains in the low and mid levels to limit precip potential. Late afternoon/early evening, the upper low moves into the Siouxland, placing western Nebraska in a region of CAA. The northern stream trough and closed low will track through the Mid-Missouri Valley Saturday night. Lows from the upper teens to lower 20s northwest to the lower to mid 20s southeast.
Warmer Pacific storm brings some rain and higher elevation mountain snow mainly Saturday.
231 PM EST Fri Mar 9 2018 With upper troughing anchored over the northeast CONUS, chilly weather will persist through the weekend. This high pressure will hold sway over the area through the weekend, so while some scattered diurnal strato-cu/cumulus (and perhaps a few flurries) will be possible, generally expect mainly clear to partly cloudy skies.
1227 PM EST Fri Mar 9 2018 Low pressure will remain across the region today. The remaining area of snow with the surface/upper level lows is currently lifting across northern portions of the forecast area while diminishing. Energy rotating around the upper low will also help support the development of another low east of the Gulf of Maine which will intensify while tracking toward Nova Scotia later today. This low will also be captured by the upper low and retrograde westward across New Brunswick tonight.
High temperatures will be in the lower to middle 40s. Pretty quiet across central and southeast Illinois early this morning, with an axis of high pressure drifting overhead. Main concern will be with the development of a warm front just south of the Ohio River toward late afternoon. As for type, the easterly flow at the lower levels does not bode for a significant warming at the surface, and the drier air will allow for some evaporative cooling. A blocking pattern, courtesy of the residual upper low and a second low dropping south from Hudson Bay, will keep dry weather over our area through mid week. By that point, the upper low will finally be moving out, and a building ridge to our west will spread eastward.
Canadian high pressure continues to be the main influence across central Indiana which led to dry and cool conditions.
336 PM EST Fri Mar 9 2018 Upper level low pressure over New England this afternoon will slowly move away from the east coast this weekend.
Light easterly gradient Saturday should allow for a lake breeze to develop and will keep temps cooler along the lake.
The low will weaken and light NE winds of 10kts or less will then prevail across the entire area overnight with RH values increasing to AOA 70 percent by midnight.
251 PM EST Fri Mar 9 2018 Dry weather returns this weekend under high pressure. High pressure building into the Great Lakes will allow for a dry Saturday. The primary potential weather maker in the short term will be low pressure developing across the southeastern United States and moving northeast.
This wave and cold front will then move through NE MT tonight generating light snow at times, and possibly with intermittent fzra, through Saturday. The cold front and gusty northwest wind will drag colder air into the area for Saturday, dropping temperatures colder than Friday. Saturday, The clipper moves southeast out of the area by noon, followed by an upper ridge. Temperatures will not fully recover from those on Friday due to the colder air that moved in behind the cold front. Toward the end of the week a very large upper low off the Pacific Northwest will push the ridge eastward.
This was favoring the northern portion of the cwa overnight so will continue the low PoP trend for this possibility. This is where we placed the high likely PoPs for at least light snow accumulations in the afternoon.
SHORT TERM (Tonight through Saturday Night): Broad high pressure is over the southern United States and the Gulf, with moderate southeast winds bringing light shower activity over mainly the lower Valley. Fog will develop again Saturday night and will likely be thicker than tonight as moisture pools ahead of an approaching cold front.
116 PM EST Fri Mar 9 2018 High pressure will build in from the west through Saturday.
Area radars and satellite pictures are showing some light snow continuing in the high mountains. A short wave trough over Washington state will track east-southeast over the next 24 hours. Snow will increase in mountains after midnight when the cold front passes through. As the moisture deepens in the high country and instability becomes more favorable snow amounts will increase into Saturday morning. On the plains, a cold front is progged to push south during the morning hours bringing cooler temperatures and increased winds as subsidence pushes in behind the exiting trough Saturday afternoon. Temperatures for Saturday will be 10 to 15 degrees cooler then previous days with highs in the lower to mid 50s and 20s in the mountains.
1152 AM MST Fri Mar 9 2018 Today, more high clouds to contend with as temperatures inch up a few more degrees with highs in many valleys reaching the low 60s. Outside of the mountains, Saturday will bring variable cloudiness and somewhat cooler temperatures for our northern zones. By Saturday evening, the trough dropping in from the north will have moved to the upper midwest and CO will be under dry NW flow aloft.
/issued 404 AM CST Fri Mar 9 2018/ West-northwest flow aloft will continue over the Midsouth today, as southerly surface flow develops around the western periphery of a departing continental pressure ridge. Main story for today is warmer afternoon temperatures, near or slightly above early March normals.
Saturday will be much cooler and windy especially over the plains as the upper system moves into Nebraska and fast mid- level flow mixes down. Not much in the way of moisture expected across the lower elevations after Saturday with models depicting any stronger passing systems to our north and east riding over the upper ridge. Cold front then passes across later tonight into Saturday morning mitigating concerns through the weekend.
Ceilings will begin to lower this evening and fall into MVFR/IFR overnight as a low pressure system approaches the region.
We will remain in between high pressure exiting Minnesota, and nearing low pressure stretching from southern Canada to eastern Wyoming. For tonight, the focus will be on the 500mb trough currently over southern British Columbia.
this increasing moisture will interact with the warm front which sets up just of the forecast area tonight. Have issued a Fire Danger Statement across central Georgia for the low relative humidities expected across the area. Model guidance in good agreement through Saturday as mid and upper clouds push into north GA tonight, temperatures will remain warmer there than across central GA and remain above freezing across the area. Afternoon highs on Saturday will be close to todays across north GA, even with increased clouds as southwest winds will aid in warmer air across the forecast area.
breezy northwest winds and below normal temperatures are anticipated in the wake of the trough with many locations remaining in the mid 40s for highs. A mid/upper ridge is progged to build across the Central Conus toward the end of the period bringing rising temperatures and low probabilities for precipitation.
Upper air analysis last evening showed a ridge over the western half of the country with northwesterly flow across Texas. High pressure at the surface was centered over the Louisiana coast and winds across our CWA were generally from the southeast. Saturday winds will shift to the west bringing warmer, drier air and temperatures will warm significantly with highs 15 or more degrees higher than Friday.
Based on model forecast system movement, layer moisture and uvm progs, it appears the southwest part of the forecast area will see the highest amounts, perhaps 1 to 2 inches of sleet/snow. Soundings are all below freezing aloft across the CWA, so removed the mention of freezing rain.
The greater fire conditions continue to be northwest of Interstate 44 where the lower afternoon min relative humidity look to be located.
with breezy south winds pushing temperatures into the low and mid 60s.
339 PM EST Fri Mar 9 2018 Broad area of low pressure over the Great Lakes will move east over Nova Scotia Saturday. An area of high pressure will build over the area this weekend. A trough axis moving into northwestern Ohio at this time is helping to support stratocu/shower activity. The lake induced instability is marginal, but when combined with the jet energy, trough axis, and lingering moisture under nw flow it isn't surprising to see an expansion of snow showers. The longer fetch over the snowbelt will support some additional accumulations of an few inches before the best energy wanes tonight behind the trough. High pressure will build in from the upper midwest Saturday providing subsidence and sunny conditions.
Dry conditions are expected tonight into the weekend with highs around 40 and lows in the low to mid 20s.
Upper level troughing will generally remain in place across the Upper Great Lakes through tonight and then the trough will slowly begin to shift east on Saturday. After lingering les over the eastern counties dissipates later in the morning, expect partly to mostly sunny skies on Saturday with highs generally in the lower to mid 30s. Ensembles continue to be in good agreement with the longwave pattern shifting the trough over the Great Lakes further east, with some amplifying to the upstream ridge across the Rockies. But the ridge will continue to drift east, which will usher in a moderating trend to the temperatures later in the extended periods. Winds will generally be less than 25 knots through much of the fcst period under a high pressure ridge.
339 PM EST Fri Mar 9 2018 A persistent upper level trough will keep chances for snow showers and snow flurries in the forecast through Saturday.
Canadian High pressure is expected to push across Indiana today and tonight.
Along with the lowering cloud bases will be an increasing chance of showers as a cold front approaches. Temperatures will be a few degrees warmer today high temps should warm into the lower to mid 70's. On Saturday, low pressure near the panhandle will move east. Warm 850 temps support high temps reaching the lower 80's. As the low departs it will drag a cold front across the area between 09-12z. SE TX will also lie in the subsident region of the jet so rain chances with the front should remain on the low side.
Saturday we expect the surface lee-side low pressure trough to deepen in response to a vigorous upper level low pressure system swinging southeast out of the northern Rockies into the high plains and slinging a cold front southward into our area. Saturday should see deep mixing and at least a low-end windy and warm day for areas to the south of the cold front which looks like it will impact at least the southeast Panhandle and northern Rolling Plains Saturday afternoon.
205 PM MST Fri Mar 9 2018 Snow and rain showers will accompany a cold front passing through the region later Friday evening. Dry, but cooler weather follows on Saturday.
Few-sct cumulus over eastern CWA due to lingering thermal trof may briefly become bkn. Few cumulus developing over eastern CWA in lingering weak thermal trof. Light winds with weak high pressure ridge over the area will allow a lake breeze to develop this afternoon. VFR conditions today and Sat with polar high pressure to settle over the region. Highs today will be slightly warmer than yesterday with lows tnt in the teens.
As for temperatures, highs today will generally be in the low to mid 70s with the exception of portions of south central Kansas where upper 70s will be possible. Last, fire danger will be elevated this afternoon due to breezy conditions and relative humidities plunging into the low to mid teens.