Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
8 inches range and with 700 mb winds from the SW at 35-40 kt orographic lift will combine with this high PW IVT flow to bring periods of heavy rain. An upper level ridge build behind the exiting front Sunday with a weak warm front brushing the area with light precipitation from the Cascades to the coast as the front is shunted north by the ridge.
Strong high pressure aloft will continue to dominate our weather today, though would expect a bit more mid and high cloud especially in our east as weak area of PV lifts out of central WY.
For today, an upper level closed low is forecast to cause scattered showers in far northeast Arizona, with mostly isolated storms elsewhere. This morning's satellite imagery reveals an upper level closed low currently centered near Ganado in northern Apache County. Radar indicates only isolated shower activity near the low center. This low is forecast to lift toward the northeast today, exiting the state late this evening. The best chances for showers today will continue to be near the low center in far northeast Arizona.
1046 PM PDT Fri Nov 4 2016 High pressure will bring mild, dry and somewhat foggy weather to the region tonight in Saturday morning. The chance of rain increases late Saturday into Sunday as a slow moving cold front creeps across the region.
A cold front will be associated with this trough, and this will help cool the max temperatures 5 to 10 degrees Sunday when compared to today. Clouds will begin to clear from west to east late Sunday as the trough moves off into Montana. Upper level ridge returns to the Intermountain West for dry conditions under a southwesterly flow aloft.
324 AM CDT Sat Nov 5 2016 Forecast challenges are on the low side for today and tonight.
The low level circulation surrounding high pressure anchored over the Ohio Valley is advecting a warmer and slightly more humid low level airmass into Lower Mi. Thus far, low cloud/fog development within the modest moisture advection has been limited to portions of the higher terrain of west-central Lower Mi. This will support afternoon highs in the low to mid 60s.
300 AM EDT Sat Nov 5 2016 High pressure will build over our region though today. A weak cold front will move across the area tonight.
458 AM CDT Sat Nov 5 2016 Latest upper air analysis and water vapor imagery show a weak ridge over the region between a closed low near the four corners and a deep trough off the ern seaboard. A weak disturbance was traversing acrs TX on the wrn periphery of the ridge. Slightly cooler air is beginning to spill into cntl LA where temperatures are in the middle 50s/near 60 as of 4 AM. Further south and west, temperatures remain a little warmer in the middle 60s to near 70. Overnight lows tonight will be a little cooler than the past few nights but still above normal values, with temperatures falling into the middle 50s acrs cntl LA to the lower/middle 60s along and south of I-10.
/issued 847 PM EDT Fri Nov 4 2016/ A cold front is in place just to the north of the area with a pre-frontal trough in place across Manatee/Hardee/Highlands counties. A few showers are moving across the Nature Coast and chances will migrate southward between the trough and frontal boundary overnight. Cooler and drier air will move in behind the front with high pressure building into the area for the weekend. Temperatures are on track to fall into the upper 50s to lower 60s north, to the lower 60s inland to near 70 coastal central and south. NNW winds around 10 knots currently in place across the coastal waters will become NE and increase to around 20 knots behind the front overnight through Saturday for the northern and central waters as high pressure builds into the region.
336 AM MDT Sat Nov 5 2016 The area of low pressure is now just about over the four corners region as rain continues to be reported for Durango and Pagosa Springs. Also, temperatures above 10K feet remain below freezing so no reason to make any changes to current advisory. For the rest of today then, the low will slowly move eastward and as it does so, open up and become an open wave. Rain and snow will continue down south though any snow on roadways should melt quickly after falling, this for the higher mountain passes.
After seasonal temperatures today, a return to above normal readings will occur on Sunday as ridging aloft builds in. High pressure will bring benign weather and light winds through the period.
Upper level low continues to spin across Arizona with dry slot currently working its way into the southwestern Texas Panhandle. Between this and dewpoints in the low to mid 30s, precipitation chances will be pretty limited across the Panhandles through Saturday morning as the column takes awhile to moisten. Some drizzle is also possible Saturday morning and afternoon for most of the Panhandles as the lower levels should moisten up faster than the mid and upper levels. Closed upper level low set to reach the Four Corners region by Saturday afternoon, and should turn into more of an open wave that timeframe as well.
No significant highlights in the short term period as a mid level ridge/700-500mb axis propagates across central ND continuing with an overall clear sky and above normal temperatures. There is some thunderstorm potential late Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening favoring the southern James River Valley, but given the uncertainty of the timing and placement of an advancing cold front into western and central ND, the potential for thunder could be shifted farther west.
1020 PM PDT Fri Nov 4 2016 Patchy morning valley fog possible Saturday, otherwise increasing clouds and cooler with a threat of rain Saturday night into Sunday, mainly north of interstate 80.
Max temps will trend slightly cooler but will remain above normal over the southern zones and near normal over the north today. An upper level low over the desert SW will will move east on Sunday.
244 AM CDT Sat Nov 5 2016 Early morning surface analysis indicated a ridge axis from the Ohio Valley into the southern Plains. With the slow approach of the closed mid-level circulation over the 4-corners region, some deepening of the lee trough was noted. Models remain consistent though in good mixing to around 925 mb, and this again should produce highs in the lower to mid 70s, with the warmest temperatures over northeast Nebraska where there will be less effects from the high clouds. As the low- level flow becomes more southeast on Sunday, and clouds continue to thicken, the boundary layer mixing will not be as deep reducing highs from today.
621 AM EDT Sat Nov 5 2016 Strong Canadian high pressure will build into the area, settling over the region much of the upcoming week.
327 AM EDT Sat Nov 5 2016 High pressure will maintain dry weather and seasonal temperatures through the weekend.
An amplified weather pattern has set up over the CONUS with strong ridging over the central U. and deep troughing just off the eastern seaboard. By Sunday night, the trough moves southeast, deepens further and a closed low develops south of Nova Scotia. This will allow for high pressure to build back in over the Gulf and eastern U. On the surface, a cold front extends southwest across the western Atlantic from a low pressure center east of Nova Scotia. As far as temperatures, they will remain around average with daytime highs in the low 80s and overnight lows in the 60s for most of central and southwest Florida and mid to upper 50s up north along the Nature Coast.
SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday): Closed 500 mb low pressure over the Four Corners area will gradually open up into a trough while shifting east into the Central Plains during the forecast period. Above normal temperatures are expected to persist during the daytime and overnight hours with no significant passages of cold fronts likely.
127 AM EDT Sat Nov 5 2016 High pressure will remain over the Ohio Valley through Saturday. A cold front will pass through Saturday night.
408 AM CDT Sat Nov 5 2016 The upper low that has been to our west over the last several days is slowly moving north toward the Four Corners while becoming an open trough. As this occurs, the trough will move east across our area bringing another chance for showers and thunderstorms.
623 AM EDT Sat Nov 5 2016 High pressure will build over our region though today. A weak cold front will move across the area tonight.
205 AM MDT Sat Nov 5 2016 Latest upper air analysis shows the closed low near the Four Corners Area. As the low moves north it is slowly merging back into the flow around the ridge over the western CONUS.
521 AM EDT Sat Nov 5 2016 A large area of high pressure will build from the Ohio River Valley to the Northeast U.
324 AM PDT Sat Nov 5 2016 Patchy morning valley fog this morning, otherwise increasing clouds and cooler.
140 AM MDT Sat Nov 5 2016 Some high clouds over parts of the CWA ahead of an upper low currently moving north along the Az/NM border. The low will drift slowly north to the 4 corners area today and continue to spread mainly mid and high clouds across much of the CWA.
A cold front is poised to move through the area late in the day and into this evening. The latest NWP models forecast weak Q-G forcing across the FL Panhandle and southeast AL Sunday and Sunday night as the upper- level ridge axis shifts eastward, but poor thermodynamics will prevent the development of rain.
Drier and cooler air will continue to push into the region, both at the surface and aloft behind this front through the night. Predominantly northwesterly 500mb flow will occur over the region Saturday into Sunday as an upper ridge builds over the region late Sunday and Sunday night. High temperatures on Saturday will range from the upper 60s northern Midlands to lower 70s CSRA and Sunday will be slightly warmer with a modifying air mass with highs ranging from around 70 north to mid 70s CSRA. Low temperatures Saturday night could fall well into the 30s with some of the cooler outlying areas approaching freezing. In fact the local COOP MOS has some locations in the lower 30s and the trend has been getting cooler.
412 AM CDT Sat Nov 5 2016 Latest upper level analysis has cutoff upper low slowly moving north into the Four Corners region with a broad upper ridge over a large portion of the CONUS. A few showers are possible this morning in the far western zones where better upper level diffluence is expected closer to upper low. As upper low approaches and better LSA and height falls occur later this evening and especially overnight into early Sunday morning.
348 AM EDT Sat Nov 5 2016 High pressure over the Ohio River Valley will keep cool air from Canada flowing into New England over the next several days.
Upper ridge over the northern plains will keep unseasonably warm and dry weather over the region through the weekend. This wave will push a cold front across the state Sunday afternoon.
407 AM CDT Sat Nov 5 2016 (Today and Tonight) For today, main lift will remain west of the area as the upper level trough axis approaches. As the upper level trough axis approaches tonight, lift will increase across the area. The GFS indicate a positive tilt trough from the Southern Plains to a low over Northern Mexico.
The upper low is moving as projected moving up into the Four Corners region with the arch of showers moving north and easterly across the area.
235 AM CDT Sat Nov 5 2016 High pressure covered the forecast area at 07Z/2am. Meanwhile, a batch of cirrus clouds were floating overhead thanks to a piece of short wave energy moving over northern Minnesota atop upper level ridging.
306 AM CDT Sat Nov 5 2016 Deep ridge over the center of the country will be slow to move over the weekend maintaining this prolonged stretch of above average temperatures. Highs today will again reach the lower 70s, while a slight drop in 850 hPa temps on Sunday will bring a slight cool down with highs in the middle to upper 60s.
The weakening of high pressure tonight should decrease the threat for fog, so it is currently not in the forecast for Sunday morning. A passing cold front on Sunday will increase the chances for precipitation, especially in the high terrain, and snow levels will lower once the front passes.
Temperatures are hovering in the low to middle 70s, which is near normal for early November, and dewpoints remain near 70 degrees. A weakening cold front bisects the Florida Peninsula early this morning, as it drifts southward sparking some shower activity near Lake Okeechobee and the Atlantic waters adjacent to the coast. This cold front will continue pushing southward today, making its way to the Florida Keys later this morning and early afternoon. High pressure will build over the Ohio River Valley and the Virginia Piedmont tonight, which will help freshen northeasterly breezes across our CWA. With drier air evident on water vapor imagery this morning expected to filter in behind the cold front, as well as forecast soundings corroborating this occurrence, tough to venture away from slight chance POP's through Sunday.
The low clouds could prevent visibility from dropping to lower than MVFR, so will carry temporary lower conditions at most.
Slightly cooler and drier air will continue to filter across the region this morning. Only very slow clearing from west to east will continue today as wrap around clouds associated with the upper low over MS/AL moves slowly east as well. Thus, keeping mostly cloudy to cloudy skies over C and SC LA with highs only making it into the lower/mid 70s. For the remainder of the week, weak high pressure will gradually slide eastward tonight and Thursday.
A slow moving upper low continues to spin near the Mississippi River just northwest of Jackson, MS. Large scale lift associated with a warm conveyor belt was located several hundred miles east of the upper low center, mainly impacting east Alabama. Highest rain chances will be along and east of I-65 overnight, although rainfall amounts will be light, with the lowest rain chances across the southwest counties.
There is good agreement between the GFS and ECMWF that a closed low across the lower Miss Valley will move southeast across the Gulf of Mexico and be positioned across south Fl by early Thu morning. There will be a slug of moisture and lift to the north of the low of which the northern fringes of it will be over the area during the day Wednesday and continuing into Wednesday night. There may also be a few brief isolated storms given weak instability in combination with forcing to the north of the low.
350 AM EST Wed Feb 22 2017 Low pressure over Lake Superior will move across the Great Lakes. The trailing cold front will sag over the forecast area Thursday then lift back north as a warm front Thursday night.
Expecting all locations to remain above freezing, ranging from mid 30s NW to mid 40s SE. An increase in clouds for a time Thursday morning, followed by clearing behind the departing surface cyclone. GFS, with its further north cyclone track, is completely dry across these areas. Primary impact Thursday night will be strong cold gusty NW winds behind the cold front.
220 AM EST Wed Feb 22 2017 Weak system crosses this morning for a cloudy and cooler day.
VFR will prevail tomorrow under the influence of high pressure that will cause winds to veer as it moves farther east. Veering winds are anticipated as the high moves off towards the east. /issued 258 PM CST Tue Feb 21 2017/ SHORT TERM (Tonight through Wednesday Night): Northwest flow aloft will continue to bring widespread subsidence across South Texas behind a strong eastward-moving 500mb low pressure system. With sunny skies and very low moisture, temperatures have soared into the low 90s in many areas with the Brownsville airport already tying the daily record high temperature as of this writing.
937 PM MST Tue Feb 21 2017 Upper ridging across the central CONUS continues to slide eastward into the upper Midwest. an upper trough is moving onshore with upper flow across the western CONUS and the CWA transitioning to a more active southwesterly flow. In the low levels. strong thermal ridge is crossing the northern Plains with gusty W/SW flow across northeast WY and far western SD. Rain showers are expected develop over the next few hours ahead of a wave crossing WY/MT and a cold front crossing the area. NW SD could see some showers develop during the day into the evening as a backdoor cold front slides into northwest to central SD. Temps will be cooler tomorrow with highs in the upper 40s to upper 50s.
Upper level ridge will build over the region today and coupled with dry air will result in very warm temperatures. Highs should be able to climb into the lower/middle 90s over the Rio Grande and Brush Country to mid/upper 80s near Victoria. Even warmer temperatures are expected on Thursday with temps nearing 100 degrees at Laredo and near 90 at Corpus Christi.
/issued 318 PM CST Tue Feb 21 2017/ A slow moving upper level low pressure system over the Arklamiss this afternoon will continue to move east tonight. The upper low should drop southeast into the northeast Gulf of Mexico by Wednesday morning with upper ridging rebuilding over the Mid South through the day. This should allow temperatures to warm back into the lower to middle 70s. Even warmer weather with continued dry conditions will persist into Thursday.
Proton Previous Discussion Surface pressure gradients are tightening up across eastern Montana this afternoon as low pressure has developed north of Billings. High pressure over Alberta continues to nose south. Conditions will return to a winter feel for many tonight as the low moves east through the Dakotas and more cold air spills in from Canada. Sub-freezing temperatures at around 850 mb should support precipitation changing over to snow first over the northern zones. The cloudy and cool conditions Wednesday continue into Thursday as an upper trough moves in from the Gulf of Alaska. The coldest air stays to our northeast but temperatures will be cooler and close to normal the next couple of days. The main story will the a broad upper trough with disturbances that will bring cooler conditions and period of snow showers.
A week trough may bring spotty showers to the region today and Thursday.
Latest short range models show this trend continuing through the day with activity becoming more scattered over the west coast as low pressure system moves closer to the area. Low pressure centered over Alabama will gradually moves east closer to S FL today. This low will dig southeast this evening and move across South Florida tonight into Thursday increasing the potential for showers and thunderstorms across South Florida today through the evening hours. The centered of the low pressure will continue traveling east across S Florida tonight exiting the region into Thu as it lifts northeast. Moisture wrap around the low will enhance showers early Thursday morning with weak cold front moving across the region. The front will not have a significant affect for the surface temps, other than the high being about 5 degrees lower through Thursday.
With temperatures having remained significantly cooler over an area from Hallock to Roseau, would expect those locations to receive more snow showers/light wintry mix than rain during tonight. Temperatures begin to drop overnight from northwest to southeast as cold air moves in behind the cold front. Slick roads will be a concern Wednesday morning in the northern half of the forecast area with temperatures falling to near or just below freezing during the morning commute. There are several short wave troughs will be exiting the area at that point.
313 AM CST Wed Feb 22 2017 Upper low will track across the northern Gulf today.
/issued 222 PM CST Tue Feb 21 2017/ An upper ridge across the forecast area will move east and be replaced by westerly flow aloft by early Wednesday. Record to near record warmth is expected across west Texas and southeast New Mexico Tomorrow and Thursday as low level thermal ridging, downslope flow and clear skies develop in this flow.
The rational for this update is a cold front currently located over western Wyoming is expected to dive south overnight tonight bringing sufficient lift and moisture to the area to produce rapid snow accumulations. A tricky forecast coming up thanks to the ongoing warm temperatures, an approaching boundary, and then stronger cold front. As far as the big picture is concerned, an upper level trough currently situated along the west cost will slowly dig south and deepen some tonight and into tomorrow. Ahead of this trough, a weak boundary has set up and is also dropping south. For the remainder of today and tonight, variable cloudiness is expected with a few snow showers possible for the highest elevations of the eastern Uintah and northern mountains as the boundary just makes the Colorado/Wyoming border after midnight.
By Wednesday morning, the upper low moves towards the middle Gulf coast and we'll see weak ridging build into the area.
347 AM EST Wed Feb 22 2017 Showers associated with an upper low will move east today, leaving mostly cloudy skies. Showers will be possible again on Thursday when a warm front is forecast to develop across Northern Ohio.
The low clouds and light rain will end by afternoon.
Then the well advertised low pressure system threatening to dump potentially heavy snowfall to Central and Southern Wyoming will begin to affect the area 06z Wednesday night. For now it appears that the low will be vertically stacked and track east across South Central Wyoming with a large swath of isentropic lift streaming north ahead of it.
233 AM CST Wed Feb 22 2017 An upper level low pressure system remains over Central Mississippi early this morning. A few showers associated with the upper low continue across the area, mainly over Northeast Mississippi and a line stretching from near Earle, Arkansas to Paris, Tennessee. Chances for showers will continue over Northeast Mississippi after sunrise as the upper low slowly moves to the southeast from Central Mississippi to the Gulf of Mexico. Expect a few more of these holes to develop through sunrise as the upper low moves to the southeast. Upper ridging will begin to occur over the area on the backside of the departing upper low today. This will allow highs to reach into the lower to mid 70s this afternoon.
The downslope flow pattern aloft will favor a strengthening and expanding low level thermal ridge over the southern Plains thru Thursday.
It will be cooler and breezy Wednesday through Thursday as a trough of low pressure moves by to the north, though it will most likely remain dry.
259 AM EST Wed Feb 22 2017 Weak system crosses this morning for a cloudy and cooler day.
The trough will remain over the region on Wednesday and a weak wave will move through in the afternoon and evening to produce some showers with a slight chance of a few thunderstorms.
Forecast models have slowed the arrival of the much colder air mass, permitting high temperatures to reach above freezing for most valleys again today. Cooler air will continue to move in aloft leaving a very unstable atmosphere through today.
Upper low over AR and moving East. /issued 923 PM CST Tue Feb 21 2017/ Upper low pressure system continues to slowly migrate to our east and was located across West Central Miss late this evening.
Drier weather and much cooler temperatures are then forecast through the latter half of the week, with late night and early morning frost possible.
Weak areas of low pressure will bring a low chance of showers from time to time before a stronger system brings widespread rain on the weekend. Weak little waves ripple along in the westerly flow while a diffuse trof lingers in the area. Expect very little change in the weather through Thursday with the upper ridge holding firm.