Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1223 AM CDT Thu Sep 23 2021 Upper level high pressure ridge over New Mexico and Far West Texas early this morning will shift east over the area later today and tonight. The slight increase in theta-e advection across the western portions of the CWA overnight will keep temperatures a bit warmer than what was observed this past morning as it offsets substantial radiative cooling processes, with lows bottoming out in the lower 40s across the northwestern South Plains and lower 50s elsewhere. Weak surface cyclogenesis near the Raton Mesa will occur by tomorrow afternoon as a subtle, mid-level perturbation rotates atop the de-amplifying ridge, resulting in breezy south winds as the pressure gradient tightens and high temperatures about 10 degrees warmer than today. This will occur as a more substantial trough/low traverses central Canada.
1002 PM CDT Wed Sep 22 2021 (This evening through Thursday) The 18Z surface observations place the ridge axis near/along a line from Childress to Clinton, with temperatures in the mid to upper 70's. As this high pressure system shifts east overnight, light winds veer predominantly to the S/SE by Thursday morning. The warming trend begins tomorrow as the upper ridge enters the area and southerly surface winds increase, especially over northwest Oklahoma.
By tonight, we'll start to see a push of mid level WAA as a weak wave over tops the incoming ridging. Will favor the warmer half of guidance with 75th percentile surface temps in the lower 70s to lower 80s. Mid/upper level ridging from Thursday is short lived as cold front moves through late Thursday night into Friday morning with troughing digging in for Friday. Breezy northwesterly winds will usher in cooler temperatures for Friday with highs mainly in the 60s.
Plenty of sunshine is in store for today, with afternoon highs topping out in the lower to mid 80s across the region. Overnight lows tonight will once again fall into the lower to mid 50s across the region under mostly clear skies. As we move into Friday we will see broad upper level ridging across the western CONUS that will help our region remain under northwest flow aloft. This will also cause temperatures to increase by a few degrees here and there from what we are expecting today, with afternoon highs on Friday ranging from the lower 80s to mid 80s, with the warmer temperatures across our western zones.
Temperatures overnight are on track to be the coolest we have experienced in several months - coolest since late May! Temperatures will continue to fall into the mid to low 50s inland with slightly warmer temperatures along the coast. Temperatures on Thursday will struggle to reach into the 70s across much of the area as northerly flow continues to usher in cooler, dry air. Expect temperatures to tank into the low 50s across inland communities with upper 50s to right around 60Â° at the beaches by Friday morning. As high pressure continues to build into the region, temperatures will trend warmer as we head into Friday afternoon with highs in the mid to upper 70s inland with a few spots potentially hitting 80Â°.
Looking forward to clear skies with mild temps reaching up into the low 70s today with drier dew points in the low 50s. Morgan The dry airmass that has entered our CWA behind the recent cold frontal passage will remain in place throughout the period as high pressure builds in broadly over the eastern CONUS. Cooler than average temperatures for this time of year are forecast for the beginning of the period. Friday night, temperatures dip into the upper 40s in portions of north Georgia while temperatures in the low to mid 50s are expected for the rest of the CWA (roughly 10 degrees below climatological norms).
A closed system of high pressure off the coast of California will produce northwesterly flow aloft over the Northern Rockies today and Friday.
An upper-level trough is slowly moving out of the Quad State to the northeast late this afternoon and evening. A large temperature gradient exists with afternoon temperatures near 60 in the Tri-State to the lower 70s near and west of the Mississippi River. Troughing, with northwesterly flow aloft, continues tomorrow as temperatures stay well below average, though a slow northward retreat begins. On Friday, the next system drops into the trough near the Great Lakes and will result in a weak cold front moving through the Midwest along with a brief resurgence in the trough. Ahead of the cold front, some showers will be possible late Friday night along the I-64 corridor and Evansville Tri-State.
The period starts off with s/w ridging over the forecast area. Highs on Thursday should be warmer than today as models show some additional LL WAA. A cold front is forecast to have passed through and just exiting out of our area by the daytime hours on Friday. Beyond Friday, we get into return flow as high pressure slides east and a low level waa pattern sets up.
But before that arrives, expect upper level ridging and breezy southerly winds to bring warmer air to the area leading to afternoon highs in the mid 80s in central SD, mid 70s along the I-29 corridor, with lower to mid 70s across SW MN and NW IA. The cold front will start to enter the region likely getting through Huron and Chamberlain by midnight. High resolution guidance shows a line of weak showers coming in an hour or two behind the cold front, but with the dry air in the boundary layer not expecting much more than a trace as it moves through. By sunrise, vast majority of models have the cold front either close to or fully exiting our area off to the east/southeast.
Temperatures range from the low to mid 50s across the region, with a couple locations in the mid 40s near the Tennessee River. The latest surface analysis places a deep 1002mb low over southwest Lake Erie with a cold front extending southward from Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania down through Raleigh, North Carolina and southwest into Orlando, Florida.
350 AM EDT Thu Sep 23 2021 A cold front will exit offshore this morning.
Cold front now pushing se across ne Fl with dissipating showers will be south of the area by dawn. Northwest to north winds today will advect in much drier air resulting in decreasing cloudiness along with lower humidity levels and cooler temperatures.
Skies will clear tonight as the low moves away and high pressure briefly takes hold.
Yet another quiet and cool night across region with surface ridging pushing off to the east. The front and trough axis will pass through the forecast area on Friday, bringing cooler air back to the area as highs range from the upper 60s and lower 70s in areas that see the frontal passage earlier in the day to near 80 where the passage is later. In addition, several CAMs do show some weak radar returns, though little in the way of QPF, likely due to dry air in the low levels.
Dry and warmer weather returns by Friday. This will occur as the well advertised upper low deepens north along the IN/OH border tonight, reaching se MI tomorrow.
Dry and cooler conditions continue through the short term. Lows tonight will generally range from the low to mid 40s, with some colder temperatures in typical cold spots. Highs Thursday will be 2-4 degrees warmer than today in the low to mid 70s. Could see some sprinkles across central MO with a cold front passage Friday night, but not seeing any potential for significant rainfall.
Today Through Friday Night Fair weather forecast expected to persist through the short term period as sfc ridging builds over the area and mid level ridging to the west expands eastward.
304 AM CDT Thu Sep 23 2021 Frost advisory for the bogs and northern counties as temperatures forecasted to reach the low and mid 30s. This dry air is a result of an upstream upper-level ridge which will provide similar weather today as the last couple of days. Likely more than just cumulus clouds in our eastern counties from the downstream low pressure system. This keeps tonight's overnight lows in the high 30s to high 40s and removes likelihood of having another frost advisory. Clouds build Friday morning ahead of an upper-level trough digging southeast across the Northern Plains into the Midwest.
But NBM looks to be on the high end of the range and have lowered the dewpoints from NBM and aimed for a blend of HRRR/NAM/ECMWF which are in the right ballpark with the current dewpoints.
310 AM CDT Thu Sep 23 2021 What a difference a day makes! In wake of the cold front that swept through the Tennessee Valley region yesterday, a much drier and cooler air mass has taken hold. 08z temperatures are currently running in the lower 50s in most areas -- with a few upper 40s noted over southern middle Tennessee. Expect the tranquil weather to continue today with high pressure establishing itself at the surface and clear conditions prevailing throughout the day. Breezy northerly winds will help to reinforce this cooler air mass, as temperatures will struggle to climb above the 70 degree mark this afternoon.
The weak mixing overnight will keep tonights lows much warmer than last night (no chances for frost), however still in the upper 40s. A cold front moves into the far western zones Thursday afternoon, and winds behind the front will begin switching to the northwest throughout the afternoon period, with winds in the southeast (Fergus Falls to Park Rapids) not seeing a wind shift until early Friday morning. Thursday highs will be a couple of degrees cooler than today yet depend on FROPA for any given location.
High pressure slides into the southeast US to end the week, bringing a return of southwesterly winds Friday. Another day of breezy winds will usher warmer air to the Midwest ahead of yet another frontal system that is forecast to drift through the upper Midwest and northern Great Lakes.
[Through 06Z Friday] Cold front pushing se across ne Fl this morning with dissipating showers and winds shifting to the nw with brief gusts to around 20 knots. Cold front will move into SE GA late this afternoon, then slowly move to the southeast of forecast area through the night. Bands of showers and storms will develop in moist and diurnally unstable airmass ahead of front, in prefrontal troughing. Significantly drier air will advect into region overnight, and through the day Thursday, as high pressure builds from the northwest. Lingering cloud cover anticipated over NE FL following frontal passage Thursday, otherwise a trend toward sunny skies is expected, allowing temperatures to moderate into the lower to mid 80s. This will make it feel noticeably cooler despite highs only running about 5 to 7 degrees cooler than Today.
Current temperatures are only in the mid 70s, thanks to several days of CAA to the west of the strengthening upper low over the Ohio Valley. By late Friday, another deep trough will dive into the Great Lakes and Midwest, pushing a weak front into the region. Little moisture return will be available and the better height falls and vorticity advection with the incoming trough will stay to the northeast.
With warmer winds at the surface, expect afternoon highs to be warmer pushing into the upper 70s to around the 80 degree mark. Slightly cooler temperatures Friday as a weak and dry cold front drops down the upper level ridge seeing highs only in the upper 70s to low 80s depending on the speed of FROPA.
245 AM EDT Thu Sep 23 2021 Cool and cloudy conditions will prevail in the wake of the cold front. By first light, subsidence and dry advection will put an end to rain chances near the ridges. After sunset clouds should gradually break from south to north as high pressure builds and the low pressure system over the Great Lakes exits north. Long range ensembles indicate that high pressure early this weekend will be followed by a cold frontal passage which will result in precip chance. With strong cold air advection behind the exiting cold front, persistent high IFR/low MVFR cigs are expected through much of the day.
Otherwise, dry and mostly clear conditions (outside of a few to scattered diurnal cumulus) will prevail today with large-scale subsidence dominating the region in the wake of the departing upper-level closed low to the northeast.
Friday, as a northern stream longwave trough advances from Lake Winnipeg to northern Minnesota, an associated cold front will advance south through the Plains.
Strengthening south winds ahead of the front will support warmer afternoon temperatures with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s. The cold front will move through the mid-MO Valley late Thursday night and Friday morning, resulting in slightly cooler temperatures on Friday.
Good radiational cooling can be expected tonight due to the clear sky, light wind, and surface dew points dropping into the lower 40s. Dry, quiet weather will continue through Thursday night with temperatures generally a degree or two warmer Thursday and Thursday night, although still at least slightly below normal. There will be a chance of showers Friday night due to increasing upper level divergence ahead of an upper level trough moving eastward through the Northern Plains and into the Great Lakes region. A weakening cold front will drop southeastward through our forecast area Friday night with scattered showers along and just behind this front. Low level moisture will be limited as the Gulf will be cut-off with surface ridging over the Gulf Coast states.
735 AM EDT Thu Sep 23 2021 A cold front will exit off the NC coast this morning.
NorCal is between upper high over the eastern Pacific and a low pressure trough over the Great Basin Region. Winds will begin to relax during the afternoon hours, as the high moves over the area.
718 AM CDT Thu Sep 23 2021 Frost advisory for the bogs and northern counties as temperatures forecasted to reach the low and mid 30s. This dry air is a result of an upstream upper-level ridge which will provide similar weather today as the last couple of days. Likely more than just cumulus clouds in our eastern counties from the downstream low pressure system. This keeps tonight's overnight lows in the high 30s to high 40s and removes likelihood of having another frost advisory. Clouds build Friday morning ahead of an upper-level trough digging southeast across the Northern Plains into the Midwest.
711 AM EDT Thu Sep 23 2021 Cool and cloudy conditions will prevail in the wake of the cold front. As the day progresses, expect only very modest warming, if any, given the cloud cover and cooler air w/ afternoon highs topping out in the 50s. The large Great Lakes low pressure will continue to eject north into Ontario and Quebec. Drier air will be able to filter into the low- and mid- levels such that the sun will be able to shine and temps rise from the 40s at dawn to the 60s by afternoon. Long range ensembles indicate that high pressure early this weekend will be followed by a cold frontal passage which will result in precip chance. With strong cold air advection behind the exiting cold front, persistent high IFR/low MVFR cigs are expected through much of the day.
639 AM CDT Thu Sep 23 2021 Today will be very similar to yesterday, with afternoon highs in the low 70s west of I-35 and upper 60s east of I-35. Clouds will move in overnight Thursday as a trough enters the region. The rain and northwesterly flow, resulting in CAA, will cap our afternoon high temperatures on Friday in the lower 60s.
Fall has arrived both astronomically and meteorologically across Middle Tennessee with latest surface obs showing temperatures down into the low 50s areawide.
1100 AM EDT Thu Sep 23 2021 Weak cold front has pushed into the central FL this morning, and will stall across the area through this afternoon. Lingering MVFR/localized IFR cigs continue in some spots along and south of a weak cold front that will stall out from near to south of Orlando today. Northerly winds will increase up to around 15 knots north of a weak cold front that will stall and linger south of the Cape.
The potential limiting factor to the warmer temperatures will be clouds, so just raised highs a few degrees. Dry airmass will greatly reduce PoP chances and will leave those confined to the higher terrain. Northwest flow takes over for Friday and this should be a cooler day (especially east, as Baker may not make it out of the 60s). TWH Broad ridging will dominate the Northern Rockies through the weekend. Winds will be fairly light under the ridge.
High pressure in place across the region lead to a cool night for most of the area as temperatures in the mid to low 40s were found across the area. Another repeat for today is expected with slightly warmer temps as the cooler H85 and H92 temps have moved just off to the east this am. Expect todays and tonights temps to be a few degrees warmer than yesterday and this AM.
Expect low temperatures to tank into the low 50s across inland communities with upper 50s to right around 60Â° at the beaches by Friday morning. High pressure continues to build into the region Friday and temperatures will trend warmer with highs in the upper 70s to around 80Â°.
These clouds should disperse by early afternoon as an upper-level trough axis pivots northeastward and away from the region. Chattanooga Airport, TN 70 50 74 52 77 / 0 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 69 47 73 50 75 / 0 0 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 69 47 73 51 76 / 0 0 0 0 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 67 42 72 45 73 / 0 0 0 0 10.
629 AM EDT Thu Sep 23 2021 Cool and dry high pressure will build into the area behind a departing cold front today, and persist across the region over the next several days. A deep upper low over the Great Lakes will slowly move northward today and tonight, keeping an upper trof across our region. As of 230 AM Thursday: Gorgeous weather looks on tap for the first weekend of fall, as cool, dry high pressure settles over the area.
High temperatures will be similar to those yesterday in the high country, and a few degrees warmer across the plains. The lower elevations should remain dry though there might be a few sprinkles around Park County, and gusty winds are possible with passing virga. Low temperatures tonight should also be similar to those last night, though a bit cooler in the foothills and adjacent plains as subsidence over the Front Range decreases and resulting warm, downslope winds relax. Friday's temperatures on the plains will be a little cooler (but near normal) thanks to weak upslope and cool low level advection. However, that will change this weekend with weak lee troughing, downslope, and warm advection aloft.
528 AM MDT Thu Sep 23 2021 As models had predicted the mid-level trough over the Pacific Northwest began to deepen over the Great Basin early this morning. Cirrus moving out ahead of this system has begun to move over the region during the night and will increase today as the trough deepens and its axis shifts eastward over central Utah later today. The trough splits tonight with a closed low forming over Utah drifting southward over Arizona later tonight.
/issued 321 AM EDT Thu Sep 23 2021/ Early morning IR/water vapor satellite imagery and regional surface observations are showing a weakening cold front pushing southeast into northern Florida.
621 AM CDT Thu Sep 23 2021 A strong upper level low pressure system was located over OH valley with northwest flow on the back side of the low across the forecast area. The upper low will lift into eastern Michigan today and we'll continue in northwest flow aloft but should see upper height rises across the area. Plenty of sunshine is expected today with the dry air mass still in place and temperatures will remain slightly cooler than normal for this time of year with highs in the mid to upper 70s. Some gusty winds of 25 to 30 mph will be possible on Friday in advance of the next cold front and upper level system. We should see temperatures boost up slightly higher into the low to mid 80s.
308 AM PDT Thu Sep 23 2021 Expect cooler temperatures with east winds today, then a warming trend into the weekend.
High pressure builds into the area, resulting in drier and warmer weather.
Temperatures are currently in the 50s to 60s across most inland locations, which hasn't occurred since April and May of this year! Highs today will be a degree or so warmer than yesterday, remaining rather comfortable and in the mid 80s to lower 90s.
533 AM MDT Thu Sep 23 2021 An area of upper level ridging continues to shift east early this morning with an approaching compact trough moving across ID per latest WV imagery. This low looks to dive south across UT later today, but will still pass a weak cold front through the area.
904 AM EDT Thu Sep 23 2021 A low pressure system will slowly drift north through the Great Lakes today and into southern Canada tonight. As the low pressure system exists the region, showers will end and winds will diminish. High pressure will offer clearing skies overnight and abundant sunshine Friday.
929 AM CDT Thu Sep 23 2021 (Issued 929 AM CDT Thu Sep 23 2021) Still looks like a few showers could brush the far east today, so will keep the low precip chances going. Skies will clear tonight as the low moves away and high pressure briefly takes hold.
Today will see a south wind 10 to 20 kts and a warm day out ahead of a cold front which was located at 08z in central Saskatchewan. Cold front will move southeast into the Devils Lake basin mid to late afternoon and move through the rest of the area area this evening. A short wave trough is just behind the sfc front and will push through about 6 hours after sfc wind shift. This short wave trough/vort axis will bring a period of mid level moisture/clouds with it along with a few showers. Various models and short term ensembles indicate a separate a bit more southwest of the main short wave trough and this will move thru southern ND overnight into central MN Friday morning. Afternoon temps Friday in the upper 50s to low 60s so significantly cooler than today.
627 AM CDT Thu Sep 23 2021 (Today and tonight) Slightly warmer and drier conditions expected today as high pressure continues to build into the region.
EDT Thu Sep 23 2021 A cold front will exit off the NC coast this morning.
351 AM MDT Thu Sep 23 2021 As models had predicted the mid-level trough over the Pacific Northwest began to deepen over the Great Basin early this morning. Cirrus moving out ahead of this system has begun to move over the region during the night and will increase today as the trough deepens and its axis shifts eastward over central Utah later today. The trough splits tonight with a closed low forming over Utah drifting southward over Arizona later tonight.
Issued by National Weather Service Morristown TN 956 AM CDT Thu Sep 23 2021 High pressure at the surface will continue to build eastward today bringing tranquil conditions to the region. Northerly flow will continue to bring a cooler airmass and below normal temperatures with afternoon highs in the upper 60's to lower 70's across the area.
Satellite imagery this morning showed partly cloudy to mostly cloudy conditions associated with upper low that was located over central Gulf of California. Further upstream there was an upper level trof that extended from southern Alberta to southern Idaho. Latest water vapor imagery was showing the southern part of the trof was in the process of splitting away from the trof.
309 AM MDT Thu Sep 23 2021 An area of upper level ridging continues to shift east early this morning with an approaching compact trough moving across ID per latest WV imagery. This low looks to dive south across UT later today, but will still pass a weak cold front through the area.
/22/ Today and tonight: Continued dry with cooler than normal temperatures. Broad upper level troughing will remain over the region through the period. Friday morning lows are expected to be in the lower 50s at most locations but our normally colder locations in the northeast may dip into the upper 40s.
648 AM EDT Thu Sep 23 2021 A low pressure system will slowly drift north through the Great Lakes today and into southern Canada tonight. As the low pressure system exists the region, showers will end and winds will diminish. High pressure will offer clearing skies overnight and abundant sunshine Friday.