Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
355 AM EST Wed Dec 2 2020 Chilly conditions early this morning with temperatures currently at or below freezing across much of Levy and Citrus counties away from the coast.
Meanwhile, upper low is churning over the Western High Plains, but is now looking to track south just along the lee of the Rockies today. As upper system moves south later today, upper ridge builds e-se into the region for the rest of the short term. Temperatures will start to recover from today's cooler readings as a milder airmass advects into the region from the west and north.
Some areas along and south of larger bodies of water could experience freezing fog conditions through the morning hours, as nighttime microphysics imagery shows some fog is developing along the Tennessee River and larger lakes. Another dry day is expected for day, as a weak upper ridge axis centers over the Tennessee Valley and large scale subsidence keeps moisture limited.
While still quite cool, high temperatures are forecast to be warmer than yesterday and generally in the mid to upper 50s. This along with the high pressure moving away will result in warmer low temperatures for tonight, ranging from near freezing across northern portions of SW Georgia and SE Alabama to the upper 30s/low 40s right along the coast. Minimum wind chill will remain near or below freezing overnight.
1032 PM MST Tue Dec 1 2020 Cold core trough remains across the forecast area at mid-afternoon Tuesday.
Just a few passing high clouds are expected today with high temperatures in the low to mid 40s. Mainly clear skies and seasonable temps will be story today into tonight as a subsident regime persists in the wake of deep low pressure lifting north into Quebec. This sunshine and weak warm advection on the northern fringe of high pressure should push highs into the upper 30s to mid 40s, with lows solidly into the 20s tonight thanks to a dry airmass and at least partial decoupling.
Clouds remain at bay with high pressure dominating overhead continuing the period of quiet and dry weather. Afternoon temperatures will be slightly higher than yesterday with several locations increasing into the low 40s. The region will be generally under northwesterly flow during this period as upper-level ridging dominates over the western US.
Mesoanalysis shows the cold front moving through the Permian Basin, and this will result in gusty post-frontal winds thru sundown Wed. Sustained n winds of 20-25 mph along with gusty conditions are supported by a 90-100nm/4mb MSLP gradient, even down into the Lower Trans Pecos around 09Z/Wed where winds could be sustained 25-30 mph, briefly. Noticeably cooler Wed with highs holding in the 40s in many areas, despite some sunshine. Surface ridging will keep shallow cold air in place Thur PM while the trof aloft holds cold mid-level temps across the area favoring high temps as cold or slightly colder than those on Wed with another hard freeze Fri AM. ECMWF still shows light precip potential Sat into Sun when the upper low shifts into the area, then loiters thru Tue.
Much Colder Temperatures Tonight Through Early Wednesday, with Despite full sunshine, strong cold air advection resulted in a chilly day today across east central Florida with most remaining in the 50s (except the Treasure Coast in the lower 60s). Would not be surprised to see a couple of the normally colder spots approach the freezing mark. Slightly "warmer" temps expected along the barrier islands of Brevard and the Treasure Coast counties where lows are forecast to stay in the lower to possibly mid 40s.
1045 PM CST Tue Dec 1 2020 VFR flying conditions with southerly winds of less than 7 KTs will give way to MVFR CIGs at KAUS and SCT-BKN MVFR CIGs at KSAT/KSSF overnight into Wednesday morning as moisture increases ahead of a cold front. The low level flow has switched around to the south and southeast today bringing warmer, moister air back to South Central Texas. Southerly to southeasterly winds will continue tonight and low temperatures on Wednesday will be 15-20 degrees warmer than Tuesday. A cold front that is currently in the Panhandle will move southward tonight and reach our northern border by around sunrise Wednesday. Behind the front, winds will become northwesterly and bring another shot of drier, cooler air.
Today will be cooler in response to a weak cold front. For Thursday, slightly warmer highs in the 30s to near 40 degrees are expected.
With persistent forcing for ascent largely tied to Q-vector convergence with the low, the bulk of the precip has shifted south as well. With the southern track, better insolation today should allow for warmer daytime temps with some 50s not out of the question. Any precip ends by Thursday afternoon as the mid/upper levels dry behind the low, however lower cloud may linger in the southern counties for highs in the upper 30s there.
314 AM CST Wed Dec 2 2020 A large mid-latitude cyclone was established across the nations midsection this morning, and will begin to force rain across the Ozarks today. There is still a chance that some snow could be observed, especially in the higher terrain along the Ozark Plateau. A cold front slowly moves across southern Missouri Thursday night. Overnight lows Thursday night should stay in the low 30s.
938 AM EST Wed Dec 2 2020 High pressure will allow for dry conditions across the region today into Thursday.
552 AM EST Wed Dec 2 2020 High pressure builds in from the southwest this evening, staying overhead into Thursday.
The competition for the eastern edge of snowfall today will be the result of the low-level warm nose rotating northward and a bit westward into central and north central Oklahoma during the daytime.
In the upper levels, a short wave trough has moved off the Rockies and is located over western Nebraska. Rest of the Week: Beyond Wednesday, the forecast will go quiet again as the cut off low lingers to the east of our area and a deep trough resides over the Great Lakes region.
Negatively tilted associated upper level trough will eventually drag its way eastward through Oklahoma on Thursday bringing a slow moving cold front towards central Louisiana.
947 AM EST Wed Dec 2 2020 High pressure will build overhead tonight and persist through Thursday.
The trough very slowly drifts eastward for the remainder of the workweek bringing the Oklahoma low towards the Quad State. Modest moisture advection into the Quad State late Wednesday night and Thursday will only lift surface dew points to near freezing.
The temperature forecast today uses the RAP model plus bias correction which is warmer than the short term model blend. Given the very dry air in place at the surface, shallow moisture, large dew point-temperature spreads and deep mixed layer operating, the possible weather types today are flurries and patchy freezing drizzle.
333 AM MST Wed Dec 2 2020 The second piece to this double barreled low pressure trough is currently moving through the region this morning. Light snow will continue over northwest Colorado through the morning with the Uintas favored for better snow accumulation of a couple inches at the higher elevations this morning. High pressure builds out west and largely remains in control Thursday with dry conditions, but temperatures are expected to be colder with below normal readings under the influence of this colder air mass under a north-northeast flow.
536 AM CST Wed Dec 2 2020 (Today and tonight) A cold front is moving across West Central Texas early this morning as an upper low deepens over the northern Texas Panhandle. High temperatures today will be about 10 degrees cooler than yesterday. Those clouds should stay through the night across the northern third of the forecast area, which will act as a blanket and keep overnight lows slightly warmer. We should see a rather large temperature gradient across West Central Texas by tomorrow morning, with lows in the lower 30s across the Big Country, but much cooler in the mid 20s for the cloud-free areas to the south.
A large mid-latitude cyclone was established across the nations midsection this morning, and will begin to force rain across the Ozarks today. There is still a chance that some snow could be observed, especially in the higher terrain along the Ozark Plateau. A cold front slowly moves across southern Missouri Thursday night. Overnight lows Thursday night should stay in the low 30s.
Highs this afternoon will climb into the low to mid 40s across the Midwest. High pressure will continue to dominate the weather pattern across the region today. As this moves towards the Midwest overnight, the slow exit of the High pressure system will linger dry conditions overhead, evaporating much of the approaching weak system. Temperatures will drop back into the low to mid 20s tonight, as clouds increase across the southern half of Illinois. As the weak system marches east through the southeast US, High pressure ahead of the system and a deepening Low from eastern Canada will slow the movement. Left it in for now, as a dry Low pressure system and associated frontal boundary will slip through the Midwest through the weekend. High pressure then takes back dominance over the region, holding the dry weather in place.
A band of clouds stretching from an upper low over the central Plains to Manitoba will sag southeast with a cold front through tonight.
A weak blocking pattern still exists over CONUS with an upper level low churning NE towards Greenland and another moving across the TX Panhandle. This leaves weak ridging over the region continuing to provide little weather activity. An upper level trough will begin swinging through today and will nudge the high pressure out of the region. Northwesterly flow will trickle in across the region behind the passing trough. Quiet weather continues through the remainder of the forecast due to an upper level ridge set up over the Intermountain West. Northwesterly flow continues aloft with above freezing 850mb wavering across the Northland through the week keeping highs in the 30s.
Low pressure will track southwest into eastern Utah this afternoon, resulting in areas of gusty winds. High pressure will build back over the area beginning Thursday.
(Today and tonight) A cold front is moving across West Central Texas early this morning as an upper low deepens over the northern Texas Panhandle. High temperatures today will be about 10 degrees cooler than yesterday. Those clouds should stay through the night across the northern third of the forecast area, which will act as a blanket and keep overnight lows slightly warmer. We should see a rather large temperature gradient across West Central Texas by tomorrow morning, with lows in the lower 30s across the Big Country, but much cooler in the mid 20s for the cloud-free areas to the south.
The closed double structured upper low that is currently across the Rockies will consolidate across the southern Plains today and tonight keeping all weather well to our south and our forecast area dry. Regarding temperatures, northerly surface flow will result in temperatures about 5 degrees cooler than yesterday, but still perhaps a degree or three just slightly above average. Similar conditions prevail for Thursday with highs still in the lower 40s.
202 AM PST Wed Dec 2 2020 A weather disturbance will pass across the area today which will bring another round of breezy, north winds as well as cooler temperatures today and tomorrow.
446 AM MST Wed Dec 2 2020 The second piece to this double barreled low pressure trough is currently moving through the region this morning. Light snow will continue over northwest Colorado through the morning with the Uintas favored for better snow accumulation of a couple inches at the higher elevations this morning. High pressure builds out west and largely remains in control Thursday with dry conditions, but temperatures are expected to be colder with below normal readings under the influence of this colder air mass under a north-northeast flow.
648 AM EST Wed Dec 2 2020 High pressure will allow for dry conditions across the region today into Thursday.
High pressure has centered across the Deep South along with very cold, dry air per our 00Z RAOB from yesterday (PW of 0. Satellite imagery shows freezing fog near many waterfront areas across Central AL this morning. High pressure continues east today with transition to northeast winds. Farther west, water vapor imagery & mesoanalysis depict a trough axis with two separate upper-lows residing across portions of the High & Central Plains. Warmer conditions should remain across eastern/southeastern portions of the area where more insolation occurs.
Cold front moved through last evening, wind will stay out of the N to NW through the TAF period. /issued 415 AM CST Wed Dec 2 2020/ A cold front rolled through late last night transporting colder air into the area preventing high temperatures in the Permian Basin from breaking into the 50s this afternoon, while the Pecos River Valley and Rio Grande will reach the 50s. An upper level trough over the TX Panhandle will transition to a cutoff low by this afternoon.
Some areas along and south of larger bodies of water could experience freezing fog conditions through the morning hours, as nighttime microphysics imagery shows some fog is developing along the Tennessee River and larger lakes. Another dry day is expected for day, as a weak upper ridge axis centers over the Tennessee Valley and large scale subsidence keeps moisture limited. Moisture advection will continue to filter in aloft on Thursday ahead of an upper level trough disturbance, but believe we will stay dry through much of the daylight hours.
and Thursday Northwest upper flow usually means colder than usual weather in Wisconsin in December, but the magnitude of the large upper ridge out to our west, the high upper heights and the lack of snow cover immediately upstream will make for milder than usual weather today and Thursday. Temperatures should rise into the lower to middle 40s in the east this afternoon ahead of a weak cold front that will be approaching from northwest Wisconsin. Thursday will be a little cooler than today, but still above normal. The numerical models suggest that skies should clear by midday, but moisture trapped below a subsidence inversion and the low sun angle could make the process slow.
630 AM EST Wed Dec 2 2020 Chilly high pressure will build into central NC through Thursday.
355 AM CST Wed Dec 2 2020 (Issued 355 AM CST Wed Dec 2 2020) Today through Thursday: High pressure will continue to provide relatively clear skies through Thursday save for some passing mid to high level clouds at times. Temperatures will remain close to normal with highs barely pushing 40 both days as a relatively cold air mass remains in place, and a weak cold front moves through Wednesday night into Thursday.
403 AM EST Wed Dec 2 2020 High pressure will allow for dry conditions across the region today into Thursday.
We will start out dry today as upper ridging start to shift east. Rain chances will increase late tonight as a trough over the Rockies moves southeast and becomes a cut-off low over the Plains. The Mid-South will remain in the cooler sector limiting any instability. However, a developing LLJ will provide some lift allowing for Gulf moisture to pool northward over the cooler airmass. We do not anticipate any impacts at this time as upper air soundings indicate a good amount of dry air in the lower levels during this timeframe.
Meanwhile, upper low is churning over the Western High Plains, but is now looking to track south just along the lee of the Rockies today. As upper system moves south later today, upper ridge builds e-se into the region for the rest of the short term. Temperatures will start to recover from today's cooler readings as a milder airmass advects into the region from the west and north. Overall, model blend temps look okay, but could be a touch low, especially on Thursday as an even milder airmass overspreads the region, and LL winds remain a w-nw direction, which is usually a good direction for mixing down warmer air aloft.
Latest surface analysis shows a 1025mb high pressure overspread across much of the lower OH Valley and south into the Gulf States while satellite shows clear skies across southern Indiana and central KY. Will see an increase in cloud cover tonight into Thursday morning as a Central Plains closed low approaches the region. This cloud cover and resulting insulation will likely result in slightly warmer min temps in the mid 20s for Thursday morning. Broad upper level low near the TX/OK panhandle border now will drift slowly eastward, into central OK Thursday morning and then shearing out through the day.
High temperatures are expected to be a tad cooler each day in the valleys with strengthening temperature inversions. As high pressure continues to build over the area, the chance for fog or low clouds increases over the next several days. This high pressure pattern is expected to last through the weekend.
815 AM EST Wed Dec 2 2020 Dry conditions resume today with building high pressure.
High pressure will continue above normal temperatures again today after some patchy morning fog through the central part of the valley from around Marysville southward.
A ridge of high pressure was situated over the Upper Midwest which has led to mostly clear skies, light winds, and cold temps tonight. Tranquil weather expected today with highs in the low to mid 40s, light winds, and some passing high cirrus clouds. It won't be quite as cold tonight with lows in the low to mid 20s.
Clouds remain at bay with high pressure dominating overhead continuing the period of quiet and dry weather. Afternoon temperatures will be slightly higher than yesterday with several locations increasing into the low 40s. The region will be generally under northwesterly flow during this period as upper-level ridging dominates over the western US. Weak high pressure will continue to provide VFR conditions today with skies nearly SKC. Based on current observed MVFR ceilings within this band, models look to be overdoing the low level moisture a bit, so thinking cigs should be mainly MVFR once they get into our area after 03Z. Winds will briefly turn northwesterly behind the upper trough this evening before shifting west-southwest late tonight.
1000 AM EST Wed Dec 2 2020 Chilly high pressure will build into central NC through Thursday.
439 AM EST Wed Dec 2 2020 Dry conditions resume today with building high pressure.
420 AM EST Wed Dec 2 2020 Meteorological winter (December, January, and February) is off to a good start across the Florida Keys with temperatures running a bit below normal this morning, ranging from the mid 50s in the Upper Keys to the lower 60s in the Lower Keys.
/issued 355 AM EST Wed Dec 2 2020/ Chilly conditions early this morning with temperatures currently at or below freezing across much of Levy and Citrus counties away from the coast.
415 AM CST Wed Dec 2 2020 A cold front rolled through late last night transporting colder air into the area preventing high temperatures in the Permian Basin from breaking into the 50s this afternoon, while the Pecos River Valley and Rio Grande will reach the 50s. An upper level trough over the TX Panhandle will transition to a cutoff low by this afternoon.
1219 PM EST Wed Dec 2 2020 High pressure will build overhead tonight and persist through Thursday.
242 PM CST Wed Dec 2 2020 Our main focus for this period is a low-pressure system passing south of the CWA and associated precipitation. Over our CWA, low- level southerly flow and high pressure have allowed for mostly clear skies today and temperatures in the mid-40s and even around 50 degrees for some locations this afternoon. This low and its associated cloud cover and precipitation, currently positioned over OK, will enter central and south-central MO late this evening. With surface temperatures hovering around freezing and ground temperatures likely being just above freezing, accumulations of less than an inch are possible on elevated and grassy surfaces. Around 9am, surface temperatures will begin to rise above freezing, so any snowfall will begin to melt, and falling snow will turn to a rain/snow mix before becoming all rain.
We will stay clear and dry over the next 18 hours, but the approaching cold front will bring a chance of showers by tomorrow afternoon, particularly in the west.
After another dry cold front, lows tonight and highs Thursday will again be much colder than those more usual, for early December.
159 PM CST Wed Dec 2 2020 (Issued 135 PM CST Wed Dec 2 2020) Tonight through Thursday night: Clear and dry conditions will continue for the remainder of the day as high pressure skirts south of the region overnight. Not expecting much from this boundary other than a westerly wind shift, increasing cloud cover overnight into Thursday morning, and slightly cooler temps during the day on Thursday. Skies are then expected to lift and scatter out through the afternoon and highs are looking to be in the upper 30s to low 40s for Thursday, but temps could be a few degrees warmer if clouds clear out quicker than forecast.
Did have some patchy freezing fog near some rivers and other bodies of water in the central TN valley this morning but that dissipated rather quickly after sunrise. CD Chattanooga Airport, TN 27 54 42 53 39 / 0 0 50 60 30 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 25 53 38 52 39 / 0 0 40 60 40 Oak Ridge, TN 26 52 38 51 39 / 0 0 50 60 40 Tri Cities Airport, TN 21 54 34 53 38 / 0 0 30 50 50.
As the closed low moves towards the CWA, associated moisture will begin to build cirrus across the area after midnight. With some breaks in the clouds across southern Kentucky, highs from Bowling Green to Lake Cumberland will likely see highs into the low 50s.
After 09z, conditions will begin to deteriorate as a fast moving trough approaches from the west.
1026 AM MST Wed Dec 2 2020 The second piece to this double barreled low pressure trough is currently moving through the region this morning. Light snow will continue over northwest Colorado through the morning with the Uintas favored for better snow accumulation of a couple inches at the higher elevations this morning. High pressure builds out west and largely remains in control Thursday with dry conditions, but temperatures are expected to be colder with below normal readings under the influence of this colder air mass under a north-northeast flow.
Did have some patchy freezing fog near some rivers and other bodies of water in the central TN valley this morning but that dissipated rather quickly after sunrise. Chattanooga Airport, TN 49 27 54 42 53 / 0 0 0 50 60 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 45 25 53 38 52 / 0 0 0 40 60 Oak Ridge, TN 46 26 52 38 51 / 0 0 0 50 60 Tri Cities Airport, TN 43 21 54 34 53 / 0 0 0 30 50.
1008 AM CST Wed Dec 2 2020 (Issued 355 AM CST Wed Dec 2 2020) Today through Thursday: High pressure will continue to provide relatively clear skies through Thursday save for some passing mid to high level clouds at times. Temperatures will remain close to normal with highs barely pushing 40 both days as a relatively cold air mass remains in place, and a weak cold front moves through Wednesday night into Thursday.
1245 PM EST Wed Dec 2 2020 Chilly high pressure will build into central NC through Thursday.
1247 PM EST Wed Dec 2 2020 High pressure will allow for dry conditions across the region today into Thursday.
344 PM EST Wed Dec 2 2020 High pressure will persist through Thursday night.
150 PM MST Wed Dec 2 2020 The main upper low which is swirling across the Oklahoma Panhandle this afternoon will gradually weaken with time, while broad high pressure aloft builds into our region from the Northern Rockies. As the upper low weakens tonight, clouds will be clearing across Eastern and Southern sections of the county warning area.