Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
AS DEWPOINTS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL ZONE ARE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR LOCATED WELL BEHIND THE BOUNDARY ACRS NRN/CNTL ARK AND FAR N MS. THE LATEST WV IMAGERY AND UA ANALYSIS SHOWS MOISTURE ALOFT BEING FUNNELED OVER THE REGION ON SWLY FLOW BETWEEN A TROF/WEAKNESS OVER THE SRN PLAINS AND AN UPR RIDGE ACRS THE GULF OF MEXICO.
CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION WILL SET UP WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER BY THIS EVENING. AS IT DOES ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW LOW AND BE ORIENTED CLOSE TO THE VALLEY BY PRIME HEATING. DEGREE OF CLOUD COVER WILL GOVERN TEMPERATURES WITH COOLEST READINGS OVER THE FAR NW WHICH WILL BE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. UPPER TROUGH CLOSES OFF SATURDAY NIGHT AS IT LIFTS NE.
1114 AM EDT FRI AUG 21 2015 POST-FRONTAL HIGH PRESSURE FILLING INTO THE REGION. COOLER SURFACE UNDER CLOUD COVER AND DRIER AIR ALOFT THAT WOULD GET ENTRAINED. CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 84 68 87 67 / 10 10 10 20 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 84 65 86 65 / 10 10 10 20 OAK RIDGE, TN 85 63 86 64 / 10 0 10 20 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 84 59 84 61 / 10 0 10 10.
THERE STILL APPEARS TO BE SOME THETA-E ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET SATURDAY MORNING. A STRONG COLD FRONT IS STILL ON TRACK TO MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. SINCE MODELS CONTINUE TO KEEP THE BEST SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING TO THE NORTH WITH THE DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM, THINK THIS EML MAY CAP THE BOUNDARY LAYER UNTIL LIFT FROM THE FRONT HELPS SURFACE PARCELS TO BECOME POSITIVELY BUOYANT.
TSRA AND LIGHTNING IN NWRN IA ON THE NOSE OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET PER 88D VWPS AND RAP ANALYSIS. SHORT TERM GUIDANCE SUPPORTS EVOLVING THE FRONTOGENESIS AND THE LOW-LEVEL JET NOSE CONVERGENCE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE FIRST PORTION OF TODAY INTO NRN WI BY AFTERNOON. HAVE KEPT THE HIGHER PROBABILITY DRY FORECAST.
751 AM CDT FRI AUG 21 2015 IFR AND BELOW FLIGHT CATEGORIES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE LATE MORNING TO MID DAY HOURS WITH A LIFTING OF THE LOWER CLOUD BASES TO MVFR RETURNING TO VFR DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON. A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE FOUR STATE REGION TODAY WILL PROVIDE THE AREA WITH RAIN AND DRIZZLE THIS MORNING WITH A CHANCE OF CONVECTION INTO THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING. SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE NORTHWARD MOVING WARM FRONT TO MAINTAIN FOG THROUGH MID-MORNING.
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO TRAVERSE SOUTHERN CANADA TO END THE WEEKEND.
AMPLE MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LAYERS WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO MIX OUT THROUGH 15-17Z WITH A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT THROUGH MVFR TO EVENTUAL VFR FALL ALL SITES BY LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON.
Synoptically speaking, at the beginning of the short term period high pressure at the surface is centered over the area with zonal flow aloft. As the high slowly retreats to the east with time, winds will come around to the south bringing low level moisture northward into the central plains. From late tonight through Saturday the precipitation will have a hard time progressing north and east due to drier air in the lower levels on the back side of the high holding fast. However, with the approach of a cold front diving southeast out of the plains, added a sliver of POPS over the far western and northwestern sections.
915 AM EDT FRI AUG 21 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO PUSH OFF THE COAST TODAY. AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. THE HIGH WILL BECOME CENTERED FROM NEW ENGLAND TO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS OVER THE WEEKEND. AS LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OFF THE COAST. MOSTLY CLEAR/COOLER FRI NIGHT. A BIT WARMER CLOSER TO THE COAST AND ACRS THE ERN SHORE WHERE SOME CLOUDS AND ONSHORE FLOW MAY PERSIST.
AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AMPLIFIES IN THE WEST WHICH CARVES AN AMPLIFIED TROUGH IN THE EAST.
516 AM MDT FRI AUG 21 2015 A PACIFIC TROUGH WORKS THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT THEN DEEPENS ON THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON SATURDAY. DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS FROM THE I-70 CORRIDOR NORTHWARD RAISE FIRE CONCERNS. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PUSHES JUST SOUTH OF THE WYOMING BORDER LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
1000 AM EDT FRI AUG 21 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS TO THE NORTH THIS WEEKEND.
SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGES AS WELL AS SURFACE OBSERVATIONS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OFFSHORE THE LOWER TEXAS COAST THIS MORNING. EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS TODAY AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF LOCAL AERODROMES THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW TO MID LEVL MOISTURE REMAINS HIGH ACROSS THE AREA AND AN UPPER LEVEL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS CONTINUES TO PROVIDE INSTABILITY WITH DIURNAL HEATING. SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGES CONTINUE TO INDICATE CONVECTION DEVELOPING OFFSHORE THE LOWER TEXAS COAST EARLY THIS MORNING AND MOVE NORTHWARD. 500MB LOW/ELONGATED TROUGH AXIS ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS AND NORTHEAST MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE ABUNDANT LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE CWA TODAY AND TONIGHT BEFORE WEAKENING SATURDAY.
ALSO INCREASED HIGH TEMPS BY A DEGREE OR TWO AS HOURLY TEMPS ARE ALREADY RUNNING A LITTLE WARMER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST WITH A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY AHEAD. HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD REACH THE LOWER 80S IN MOST LOCATIONS.
749 AM EDT FRI AUG 21 2015 A COLD FRONT SLOWLY CROSSES THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE OVER OR JUST EAST OF THE AREA THIS WEEKEND WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTH AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL OFFSHORE.
1237 PM EDT FRI AUG 21 2015 A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH OFF THE COAST TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS TO THE NORTH THIS WEEKEND.
BUT IN MANY LOCATIONS IT WILL HANG ON FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS A WARM FRONT. /ISSUED 751 AM CDT FRI AUG 21 2015/ IFR AND BELOW FLIGHT CATEGORIES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE LATE MORNING TO MID DAY HOURS WITH A LIFTING OF THE LOWER CLOUD BASES TO MVFR RETURNING TO VFR DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON. A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE FOUR STATE REGION TODAY WILL PROVIDE THE AREA WITH RAIN AND DRIZZLE THIS MORNING WITH A CHANCE OF CONVECTION INTO THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING. SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE NORTHWARD MOVING WARM FRONT TO MAINTAIN FOG THROUGH MID-MORNING.
SHORT TERM: (THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON) A HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL CONTINUE SLIDING ACROSS THE REGION TODAY, KEEPING QUIET WX AND LOWER DEW POINTS IN PLACE.
HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND NORTHWEST MEXICO THIS MORNING. OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS THE HIGH WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD EVENTUALLY BECOMING CENTERED OVER NEW MEXICO.
1200 PM EDT FRI AUG 21 2015 THE COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE TODAY.
06Z SFC DATA HAS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. QUIET AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES TO THE EAST COAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER BUT STILL AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL. THE NEXT BIG COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE IN THE CWA SATURDAY NIGHT. WHERE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN CLOUDS COUPLED WITH INCREASING SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL HELP BOOST HIGHS TO THE LOWER 80S IN MOST LOCATIONS.
948 AM EDT FRI AUG 21 2015 THE COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE TODAY.
715 AM EDT FRI AUG 21 2015 COOLER AND DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED FOR THROUGH SATURDAY.
753 AM EDT FRI AUG 21 2015 COOLER AIR WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BEHIND A COLD FRONT TODAY.
1253 PM EDT FRI AUG 21 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREDOMINATE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
953 AM EDT FRI AUG 21 2015 COOLER AIR WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BEHIND A COLD FRONT TODAY.
1228 PM EDT FRI AUG 21 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE THE REGION WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
DRIER AND LESS HUMID AIR WILL FILTER INTO CENTRAL NC FOR THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES STATES WILL EXTEND INTO NC SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THEN ESE/SE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS SUN/SUN NIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AMPLIFIES OVER THE ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS.
HIGHS WILL LIKELY RANGE FROM THE LOW 80S IN THE FAR NORTH TO THE LOW 90S IN THE SOUTH. AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AMPLIFIES IN THE WEST WHICH CARVES AN AMPLIFIED TROUGH IN THE EAST.
1206 PM EDT FRI AUG 21 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO PUSH OFF THE COAST TODAY. AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. THE HIGH WILL BECOME CENTERED FROM NEW ENGLAND TO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS OVER THE WEEKEND. AS LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OFF THE COAST. MOSTLY CLEAR/COOLER FRI NIGHT. A BIT WARMER CLOSER TO THE COAST AND ACRS THE ERN SHORE WHERE SOME CLOUDS AND ONSHORE FLOW MAY PERSIST.
COOLER WEATHER CONDITIONS TO THE REGION LATER IN THE WEEK AND POSSIBLY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
ALSO UPDATED DEWPOINTS WITH A NARROW SWATH OF LOWER DEWPOINTS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE PREFRONTAL TROUGH. WE HAVE A TROUGH AXIS CENTERED OVER THE OUTLOOK AREA THIS AFTERNOON. APPROACHING COLD FRONT WAS STILL FAR TO OUR NORTH ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA. LOCATIONS WERE WELL ABOVE NORMAL IN THE LOWER TO UPPER 90S ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 30S AND 40S. TOMORROW AFTERNOON IS GOING TO BE DRY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. AS LOW PRESSURE/TROUGH CONTINUE PUSHING EAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST. WHILE RIDGING EXTENDS N/NW FROM MEX. AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ROCKIES.
900 PM EDT SUN OCT 11 2015 ONE MORE DAY OF WARM TEMPERATURES REMAINS IN THE FORECAST UNTIL A COLD FRONT BRINGS COLDER WEATHER AND A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. WHEN CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE IN FRONT OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT. AND DAYTIME HIGHS WILL RISE INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S. AREA WITH THE BEST CHANCE TO RECEIVE RAIN SHOULD BE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES ALONG THE RIDGES. WITH THE UPPER TROUGH LINGERING SLIGHTLY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES A LITTLE WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE JUST TO OFF TO OUR EAST. WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM MANITOBA CANADA.
TEMPERATURES TRENDING TOWARD THE NORM IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. BEGINNING TO SEE A WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURN OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE REGION WITH SURFACE RIDGING ADVANCING EAST ACROSS THE AREA.
Low pressure system currently over the western high plains this afternoon deepens eastward tonight. Occasionally gusty south winds ahead of the wave will wane to near 10 mph as a cold front passes southeast through the CWA overnight. Dry and cold air advection filters through the area, keeping highs at least 10 degrees cooler than today in the mid to upper 70s. Consensus would have dewpoints mixing down to the 30s, perhaps a few upper 20s across north central KS, resulting in minimum RH values from the low to middle 20 percent range.
THE COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY TOMORROW NIGHT.
EXPECT A COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO WWR/GAG AROUND 9-10Z AND ADVANCE SOUTH DURING AFTER SUNRISE THROUGH THE OTHER TERMINALS.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROF IS MOVING EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING ALOFT. AND THE HIGH WINDS WARNING HAD EARLIER BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. A LOW PRESSURE TROF IS MOVING EAST OF MONTANA AND HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING ALOFT. THE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN DRY UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING.
728 PM EDT SUN OCT 11 2015 A COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE EARLY THIS EVENING. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE CAROLINA COAST WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT PUSHING A COLD FRONT NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION SOUTHWARD THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA.
UPPER RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGH MONDAY FOR DRY WEATHER AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
956 PM EDT SUN OCT 11 2015 HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND THROUGH MONDAY WITH FAIR AND WARM WEATHER IN STORE.
927 PM EDT SUN OCT 11 2015 LOW PRESSURE MEANDERS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC STATES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS BUILDING BEHIND THE DEPARTED FRONT. THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD WITH AN UPPER CUT-OFF LOW MOVING BENEATH TO SET UP A REX BLOCK OVER THE WEST COAST EARLY THIS WEEK. THE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD WITH A THERMAL TROUGH DEEPENING ALONG THE COAST.
Gusty southwest wind should drop off a little tonight before a cold front moves through tomorrow morning. /issued 153 PM CDT SUN OCT 11 2015/ An upper ridge will reside over southeast new Mexico and west Texas through the coming week.
HAVE LOWERED THE LOWS CLOSER TO THE MOS GUIDANCE. ALSO RAISED THE HIGHS IN SOME COASTAL AREAS ON MONDAY TO INDICATE LESS OF A TEMPERATURE GRADIENT FROM INLAND AREAS SINCE WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEAK COLD FRONT.
THE ATTENDANT PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THE INCOMING PACIFIC AIRMASS WILL YIELD SOME COOLING WITH HIGHS MONDAY 10-15 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY.
Cold front will move through the area Monday morning with breezy north winds developing behind it.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT BRINGING RAIN TO THE AREA AND LOCALLY BREEZY WINDS.
923 PM EDT SUN OCT 11 2015 MILD AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. COOLER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT BRINGING IN MORE SEASONABLE CONDITIONS. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE GRADIENT INCREASES AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS COMBINED WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION OVERNIGHT WILL SUPPORT TEMPERATURES 5 TO 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID 50S. AN INCREASE IN THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL USHER IN SOME WARMER AIR ALOFT WITH H850 TEMPS 10-15C. WENT WITH THE SLIGHTLY WARMER MOS GUIDANCE CONSIDERING WAA AND INFLUENCE OF SOME DOWNSLOPING IN SW FLOW. ALSO NOT SEEING MUCH IN THE WAY OF ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH.
A weak surface and upper level low just offshore the southeast U.
512 PM MDT SUN OCT 11 2015 COLD FRONT MOVING INTO EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. AS UPPER LOW SPINS OVER SASKATCHEWAN. PRESSURE RISES OF 6-7 MB/3HR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ARE HELPING TO PRODUCE WNW WINDS OF 30-35 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 50+ KTS ACROSS THE AREA. LATER TONIGHT A SECONDARY WAVE/COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE NORTHERN PART OF THE AREA. UPPER WAVE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD AND UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION MONDAY. AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES IN.
SO HAVE CANCELLED THE HIGH WIND HIGHLIGHTS AND RED FLAG WARNING. CLOUDS WRAPPING AROUND AN UPPER LOW OVER SE SASKATCHEWAN WERE ALSO FORECAST TO STAY MAINLY N OF THE AREA SO JUST HAD A SLIGHT INCREASE IN SKY COVER OVER THE NE ZONES TONIGHT. REMAINDER OF FORECAST WAS IN GOOD SHAPE AS A BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE AREA THROUGH TUE. THE HIGHEST GUST REPORTED SO FAR HAS BEEN 70 MPH AT THE BILLINGS AIRPORT AT 9AM. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN LAST NIGHT WITH UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S COMMON.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MEANDER OVER EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING BEFORE LIFTING NORTHEAST ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST.
TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOWER 80S. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER SOUTH FLORIDA OVERNIGHT.
THE SECOND SHOT FOR STRONGER WINDS COMES WITH A SECONDARY COLD FRONT LATER TONIGHT. WINDS AND SHOWERS WILL SUBSIDE MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR FROST MONDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION.
1133 PM EDT SUN OCT 11 2015 LOW PRESSURE MEANDERS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC STATES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
1154 PM CDT SUN OCT 11 2015 A steady light southerly breeze around 10 mph will continue overnight as pressure gradients tighten ahead of a low pressure trough approaching via the northern Plains. High pressure slides off to the southeast this afternoon as another developing storm system moves across the southern tier of Canada. will be similarly quiet with warmer southwesterly winds and clear skies. Tomorrow morning, the sfc trof associated with the storm system to the west should move into the region and bring with it a significant wind shift to more northwesterly.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TAF SITES LATE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT WITH NORTH WINDS SHARPLY INCREASING AND BECOMING GUSTY FOR SEVERAL HOURS BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY. /ISSUED 428 PM CDT SUN OCT 11 2015/ DRY AND MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE PANHANDLES COURTESY OF DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVERHEAD. WINDS ARE STARTING TO SHIFT AS A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH SETS UP ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL WORK ITS WAY DOWN THROUGH THE PANHANDLES OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
716 PM CDT SUN OCT 11 2015 DID ANOTHER UPDATE THIS EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 40 MPH FROM THE NORTHWEST DIRECTLY BEHIND THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH THIS EVENING. ALSO UPDATED DEWPOINTS WITH A NARROW SWATH OF LOWER DEWPOINTS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE PREFRONTAL TROUGH. WE HAVE A TROUGH AXIS CENTERED OVER THE OUTLOOK AREA THIS AFTERNOON. APPROACHING COLD FRONT WAS STILL FAR TO OUR NORTH ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA. LOCATIONS WERE WELL ABOVE NORMAL IN THE LOWER TO UPPER 90S ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 30S AND 40S. TOMORROW AFTERNOON IS GOING TO BE DRY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. AS LOW PRESSURE/TROUGH CONTINUE PUSHING EAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST. WHILE RIDGING EXTENDS N/NW FROM MEX. AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ROCKIES.
After a summer-like warm up today, a cold front will move through the region tonight.
We may still see some occasional gusts between 15 and 20 knots at KSJT and KABI through the overnight hours where the low levels tend to stay more mixed, so have included some gusts in these locations through tonight. Tomorrow, winds will turn from SW to W to N/NE as a cold front sweeps south through the area. Otherwise, the cold front should move through KSJT and KBBD around 18Z/1PM, and through the I-10 corridor by mid to late afternoon. Expect hot and dry conditions to continue Monday due to a low level thermal ridge ahead of a dry cool front. Upper level ridge shifts into the Southwest US and creates northwest flow aloft across all of Texas.
1022 PM EDT SUN OCT 11 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TAF SITES EARLY IN THIS FCST CYCLE WITH NORTH WINDS SHARPLY INCREASING AND BECOMING GUSTY FOR SEVERAL HOURS BEHIND IT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TAF SITES LATE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT WITH NORTH WINDS SHARPLY INCREASING AND BECOMING GUSTY FOR SEVERAL HOURS BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY. /ISSUED 428 PM CDT SUN OCT 11 2015/ DRY AND MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE PANHANDLES COURTESY OF DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVERHEAD. WINDS ARE STARTING TO SHIFT AS A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH SETS UP ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL WORK ITS WAY DOWN THROUGH THE PANHANDLES OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
1021 PM EDT SUN OCT 11 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH MONDAY.
41 SATELLITE WV IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER THE SOUTH AND NORTH CAROLINA COASTS.
MAY HAVE TO EXTEND THE HIGH WIND WARNING OR DOWNGRADE TO AN ADVISORY. MONDAY WILL ALSO BE MUCH COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S AND 60S.
WHICH HAS RESULTED IN TEMPS 5-10 DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE PAC NW THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSLATE E INTO THE NRN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. THE DEEPENING LOW SHOULD AMPLIFY THE ATTENDANT TROUGH SWD INTO THE MID MS VALLEY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE ECMWF/GFS ALSO SUGGEST AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD EAST INTO THE SRN PLAINS/LOWER MS VALLEY LATE NEXT.
946 PM EDT SUN OCT 11 2015 TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH QUIET WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT, AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO CONTROL THE WEATHER.
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE JUST TO OFF TO OUR EAST. WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM MANITOBA CANADA.
743 PM EDT SUN OCT 11 2015 AVIATION HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE THE REGION WITH BREEZY AND RELATIVELY MILD CONDITIONS. MEANWHILE A COLD FRONT IN THE UPPER PLAINS WILL TRACK THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
850 PM EDT SUN OCT 11 2015 THE COLD FRONT THAT HAS BEEN CROSSING THE REGION HAS NOW CLEARED THE FORECAST AREA AS EVIDENCED BY LOWER DEW POINTS AND DRIER AIR SPREADING INTO SOUTH FLORIDA ON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE. WITH LIMITED RAIN CHANCES AND COOLER AND DRIER AIR. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE WATERS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK.
A VIGOROUS SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL PASS NEAR OR JUST AFTER DAYBREAK. AFTER NEAR RECORD TO RECORD TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON WE WILL SEE A MILD OVERNIGHT ACROSS WEST TEXAS BEFORE THE COLD FRONT LIMITS MONDAYS HIGHS TO THE MID TO UPPER 70S ON THE CAPROCK AND 80S TO THE EAST INTO THE ROLLING PLAINS. DRIER AIR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. A SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE UPPER PATTERN WILL SEE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE WRN CONUS AT THE START OF THE WEEK SHIFT EWD TO ROCKIES BY MIDWEEK THEN TO THE SRN PLAINS BY WEEKS END. ALTHOUGH WEAKENING BY THAT TIME AS AN UPPER LOW LOCATED OFF THE BAJA COAST THIS AFTN MOVES NWD THEN ONTO THE SRN CALIF COAST BEFORE OPENING UP AND MOVING EWD ACROSS THE DESERT SW.
1102 PM EDT SUN OCT 11 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH MONDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA TONIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SOME THIN CIRRUS. SLIGHT RETURN FLOW WILL BRING IN WARMER TEMPERATURES. AND BKN MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES MID TN. /ISSUED 247 PM CDT SUN OCT 11 2015/ WE'RE SEEING PLEASANT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE MID-STATE THIS AFTERNOON THANKS TO AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. MONDAY WILL SEE SIMILAR CONDITIONS WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS. BY MONDAY EVENING PRECIP CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AS THE AXIS OF A STRENGTHENING UPPER THROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND SWEEPS A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE TN VALLEY.
747 PM EDT SUN OCT 11 2015 SATELLITE WV IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER THE SOUTH AND NORTH CAROLINA COASTS.
705 PM EDT SUN OCT 11 2015 MILD AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. COOLER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT BRINGING IN MORE SEASONABLE CONDITIONS. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE GRADIENT INCREASES AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS COMBINED WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION OVERNIGHT WILL SUPPORT TEMPERATURES 5 TO 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID 50S. AN INCREASE IN THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL USHER IN SOME WARMER AIR ALOFT WITH H850 TEMPS 10-15C. WENT WITH THE SLIGHTLY WARMER MOS GUIDANCE CONSIDERING WAA AND INFLUENCE OF SOME DOWNSLOPING IN SW FLOW. ALSO NOT SEEING MUCH IN THE WAY OF ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH.
GIVEN THE LOW CONFIDENCE. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA NEAR THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
735 PM EDT SUN OCT 11 2015 A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.
842 PM CDT SUN OCT 11 2015 THE STRONG COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. THE WINDS WILL CRANK UP AGAIN LATER TONIGHT AS A SECONDARY PUSH OF PRESSURE RISES MOVE THROUGH AFTER MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES THROUGH. MAY HAVE TO EXTEND THE HIGH WIND WARNING OR DOWNGRADE TO AN ADVISORY. MONDAY WILL ALSO BE MUCH COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S AND 60S.
BUT WINDS MIGHT STAY UP ENOUGH TO KEEP COVERAGE ON THE LOW/ISOLATED SIDE.
EXPECT LOW TEMPS TO THE LOWER-MID 60S. PASSAGE OF UPPER TROUGH AXIS EARLY MONDAY SHOULD THEN DECREASE THE MOIST LAYER AND NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS INDICATED.
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 50 80 56 74 / 0 10 30 10 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 50 78 53 71 / 0 0 30 10 OAK RIDGE, TN 48 78 53 72 / 0 10 30 10 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 45 76 50 70 / 0 10 40 10.
MAIN CONCERNS THIS AVIATION PERIOD WILL BE GUSTY NORTH WINDS DEVELOPING BEHIND A COLD FRONT TOMORROW MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH STRONG NORTH WINDS AND DRIER AIR EXPECTED BEHIND THIS FRONT.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD EXPAND ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH MIDWEEK. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST AHEAD OF A WEAKENING STORM SYSTEM THAT WILL IMPACT THE REGION BY LATE IN THE WEEK.
733 PM EDT SUN OCT 11 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY.