Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Then on Wed another trough pushes through the region. This fortunately will keep temperatures up, but once the wind stops and the colder air mass has settled in, temperatures do not recover much Thu afternoon, and overnight lows will finally approach seasonal normals in the teens and single digits for the high elevation basins in the central Idaho mountains. It is a continuous light precipitation, that never really accumulates to anything serious, with the Wed/Wed night storm accumulating to around 8 inches in the highest elevations from Grand Teton NP north to Montana border.
The advection of some warmer and more moist air over the snowpack could bring some fog development to portions of our CWA. Several of the high resolution models bring some low vis into our northwestern counties. Warm air advection will continue into tomorrow as low pressure to our west increases the gradient over the Northern Plains and heights rise with some weak ridging. While the increasing winds will be bringing in some warmer air, the stronger speeds will lead to more wind chill. An upper trough will dig in over the Plains during the late week period.
301 PM EST Tue Dec 7 2021 An ill defined surface anticyclone remains parked over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Aloft, mean layer ridge is slowly shifting north from the northwest Caribbean with the associated ridge axis lying just to the south of the island chain over the Straits of Florida. As the ridge axis slowly lifts northward over the next 24 hours, surface winds will briefly clock around to the east and southeast and draw in slightly higher boundary layer moisture. Thereafter, ridging will strengthen in response to a series of approaching upper level waves that will be moving across the Central Plains. That said, subsidence will still be in place due to the deep layered ridge across the region.
Despite clearing skies, lows tomorrow morning will be warmer than this morning, upper 20s to mid/upper 30s. A surface lee trough will develop by tomorrow afternoon and will allow for a fairly breezy afternoon/evening. Thicknesses will only be marginally higher tomorrow afternoon despite slight 500 height increases associated with upper ridging. Some elevated fire weather conditions will be possible tomorrow mainly across the extreme southwestern Texas Panhandle as slightly warmer temps will help lower afternoon humidities to the 16-18 percent range in conjunction with breezy west to southwesterly winds.
Otherwise, another night of cold temperatures is in store with lows in the low 20s.
Otherwise, any leftover low clouds will dissipate today as mid and high level clouds traverse over the region from a couple short wave troughs affecting the region. Therefore, may have to lower the highs into the upper teens across much of the east for this afternoon. An upper ridge will build in tonight and Wednesday with winds shifting to the southeast ahead of an area of low pressure. The southerly winds and the ridge will help draw up some warmer air, but low tonight and highs on Wednesday may be a little ambitious from the James Valley east given the new snow. We start the period out with ridging aloft along the mid-Missouri valley north into the Red River valley while in the low levels, a lee trough to the west results in broad southeast low level flow up the Plains States.
846 AM MST Tue Dec 7 2021 Patchy freezing fog was reducing the visibilty in some places to about a mile. TFJ Areas of low cloud linger across the region this morning but are expected to clear through the day as high pressure moves east across the northern Plains. An upper ridge will fold across the Pacific northwest then slide into the northern Rockies today.
222 PM CST Tue Dec 7 2021 Still dealing with impact of passing short wave trough this afternoon, which might be a bit stronger than previously thought. A bit of a break on Wednesday with short term ridging. By Wednesday night, mid level ridge passage will begin shift of overall flow.
Upper trough axis moving through on Wednesday with vorticity maxima at the base of the trough will help enhance lift and this is seen in model x-sections Omega, with forecast soundings showing inversion heights above the DGZ from late this evening until around noontime on Wednesday.
910 AM PST Tue Dec 7 2021 Light rain this morning will end late this afternoon or evening as a weak trough moves south across the region.
/issued 706 AM EST Tue Dec 7 2021/ Weak high pressure with light flow and moisture confined to the lower levels continues for much of today then slides off east tonight as a frontal boundary settles into northern FL and stalls later in the night.
This beautiful weather is thanks to an elongated area of high pressure that sprawls across the Gulf of Mexico, across the Sunshine State and over the western Northern Atlantic. In addition, deep layer ridging is beginning to pivot north from the western Caribbean. Weak high pressure is maintaining light to gentle northeast breezes this morning and will continue into the afternoon and evening. A ridge axis will lift north across the region Wednesday, briefly slackening breezes and clocking breezes around to the east and southeast.
1116 AM CST Tue Dec 7 2021 (Today and tonight) Cold air has settled across the area for this morning due to the recent cold frontal passage.
Showers have also ended across the region today as a brief upper ridge moves over the region.
High pressure will continue building into Middle Tennessee today, with a dry air mass contributing to VFR wx thru the TAF period.
1241 PM EST Tue Dec 7 2021 Aviation -Lake effect lull today; icy roads this morning Arrival of surface ridging and lowering moisture depth/inversion height today results in overall lighter intensity to lake effect snow.
Conditions for radiational cooling won't be quite as ideal as last night considering winds will be slightly stronger but with dry air and mostly clear skies, temperatures will still be on the cool side ranging from the low 30s north of I-20 to low 40s along the I- 10 corridor. Upper level ridging sets up over the area tonight helping to keep the area in a continued dry pattern. With continued west to southwesterly surface flow, warmer air will continue to filter in tomorrow with daytime highs ranging from the upper 60s north to the upper 70s, approaching 80, down south.
The hourly temperature trend remains on track for today, and still expect highs to struggle to make it into the lower to middle northwest of I-65, and the upper 50's to middle 60s to the southeast. Very little change in temperature will occur tonight compared with this afternoon's high temperatures, and expect lows to only be three to five degrees cooler. IFR to low-end MVFR ceilings IFR ceilings will remain across the north central Gulf region through this evening north of a stalled cold front.
Temperatures trend warmer through late week with rain to start the weekend. Cloudy tonight with lows near to slightly above average in the lower 20s NW to around 30F in the Lower Susq. Upper level trough passes through around 00Z Thu with strengthening low pressure off the New England coast.
1112 AM CST Tue Dec 7 2021 The forecast focus in the short term will be the slight warmup today followed by warmer temperatures on Wednesday. A closed upper low was centered over the Hudson Bay region this morning, with a broad upper trough extending across the Northern Plains, Great Lakes and Midwest. Upper ridging extended over the Pacific Northwest into British Columbia. For today, a weak cold front will move through western NE this morning. Temperatures will be warmer than yesterday, in the mid and upper 30s north central and the low to mid 40s across the southwest. Tonight, upper height rises occur as a surface warm front lifts into central NE.
Compared to this morning, overnight lows will generally be warmer along and south of I-44 where light ESE winds will reside (increasing moisture), and cooler over NW OK where light winds are expected in the driest BL.
Highs will generally be in the low to mid 50s across the area.
1150 AM CST Tue Dec 7 2021 High pressure was centered over central Illinois early this morning with light northeast to east winds across the area. The HREF/NAM/GFS have all been consistent in moving this trough across the Midwest today which will provide some weak ascent across the CWA today.
No accumulation is expected due to weak forcing and dry air in the low levels. South winds will veer to the southwest to west, then to the northwest once the trough slides through by midday on Wednesday. So as clouds clear out, temperatures on Wednesday will warm up into the low 40s to low 50s despite light northwest to north winds for most of the day. Majority of the deterministic and ensemble guidance indicate that as an upper trough comes on shore over the western CONUS, it will deepen with time.
Afternoon satellite imagery shows the stratus remains the most prevalent in the central and eastern parts of the forecast area, so may hold onto a few flurries in that area until the low clouds / flurries decrease even more. Have been looking at the fog potential for later tonight, and some of the high resolutions models are showing a decrease in visibilities across parts of the central and east. Though the pops are very low, the precipitation type could be a little tricky with some warmer air aloft in the region.
325 PM CST Tue Dec 7 2021 The issues during this time period will be the high and low temperatures over the snow covered areas across the northern cwa. Therefore, Wednesday will be much warmer than today with increasing south winds to 10 to 20 mph. Continue to expect mid and high level clouds to move over the region with the snow cover continuing to influence the highs across the northern cwa. A short wave trough from the west will come across the region Wednesday night. The overall weather map will show a broad 500mb trough across the western half of the nation, with the main feature being the low over northwestern Canada. At the surface, a trough will be set up from south central Manitoba through the Central Plains, with a few embedded lows.
Flow turns more westerly tonight as a trough approaches.
The lowest clouds were entering central into northeast AL (in the 020-030agl range). Radar is showing light reflectivity associated with the lower clouds (stratiform) along with a few higher based sprinkles or showers as well. The developing cyclone heading off of the SE Coast on Wed should draw moisture over this region eastward, leading to sunny skies in the late morning and afternoon. Another chilly night Wed night, with lows in the low/mid 30s as high pressure moves east of the region.
Otherwise, expect high pressure to maintain light and variable winds and SKC or FEW-SCT250 across the rest of South Central Texas.
Strong southwest winds develop along the east slopes of the Rockies this evening with very windy and also mild conditions spreading across the area on Wednesday before a cold front bring cooler conditions again Wednesday night through the rest of the week. After a brief cooldown, above normal temperatures have returned to most of the area today (with the exception of areas along the Hi- Line) as upper level ridging builds in. This upper level ridge will begin to break down tomorrow, resulting in gusty winds across the plains though the strongest winds will be focused along the Rocky Mountain Front as usual. High Wind Warnings remain out for the Rocky Mountain Front, including all of Glacier County, for the high winds.
235 PM MST Tue Dec 7 2021 Current surface analysis shows a frontal boundary generally along the lee of the northern and central Rockies, but starting to move northeastward as a warm front. Upper level analysis shows trough over eastern Canada and the northeast US, with a ridge off the Pacific Northwest coast. Milder air will briefly return for midweek as the warm front lifts northeast through the area later tonight and Wednesday.
353 PM MST Tue Dec 7 2021 Current surface analysis shows a frontal boundary generally along the lee of the northern and central Rockies, but starting to move northeastward as a warm front. Upper level analysis shows trough over eastern Canada and the northeast US, with a ridge off the Pacific Northwest coast. Milder air will briefly return for midweek as the warm front lifts northeast through the area later tonight and Wednesday.
Next system brings warmer weather and rain into the weekend. Temperatures will drop into the 20s again tonight, as a high pressure shifts east, and a poor defined mid level disturbance crosses the area providing light snow showers. Snow accumulations ranging from 1 inches across the central mountains to 2 inches over the higher peaks of our northeast mountains will be common. Meanwhile, the lowlands could see a dust of snow to less than half an inch.
Pretty quiet day for Wednesday as southerly winds tick upwards and help usher in somewhat warmer air.
Valley temperatures in northwest Montana have been slow to warm and are expected to remain below freezing during the arrival of the next round for showers tonight. Sub-freezing temperatures and a profile that mainly supports rain means that freezing rain is becoming more likely in the valleys of northwest Montana, including Highway 2 Troy to Essex, and Highway 93 Kalispell to Eureka. There may be isolated impacts from freezing rain in west-central Montana, especially Highway 12 between Lolo Pass and Lolo, and I-90 west of Missoula but showers look to be minimal and low temperatures may not be cold enough in most places for ice other than on elevated surfaces. A cold front passage on Wednesday will bring increased winds, generally gusts around 40 mph, and a switch back to snow.
Temperatures will be warmer tomorrow with, highs getting into the 40s for highs. Through the night the lower elevations will switch over to a mix of rain and snow. Amounts with this do not look all that high, especially for the lower elevations where the majority will be rain.
Areas near the Kentucky state line may dip below freezing. The low dew points should limit the development of fog. Dry and a bit warmer tomorrow.
Although temperatures will be cooler over the next couple of days they will remain warmer than average.
202 PM MST Tue Dec 7 2021 Warm air will continue to move in or over the CWA tonight followed by a cold front that sweeps SE tomorrow around noon. Some light snow will accompany the warm front late tonight/early tomorrow but the bigger sensible weather will be the winds tomorrow. Models are showing 40 to 50 kt winds at 850 with the cold front so this seems to be a pretty good bet on the windy conditions across the CWA tomorrow afternoon.
Those clouds in place and chilly air now over the area, courtesy of an area of high pressure over the eastern CONUS, area temperatures were only in the 40s with light winds. An area of low pressure is forecast to form along the boundary south of LA/MS/AL this evening. The track of this low will remain well to our south, but moisture seeping northward could bring light showers to our more eastern areas this evening. The developing cyclone heading off of the SE Coast on Wed should draw moisture over this region eastward, leading to sunny skies in the late morning and afternoon. Another chilly night Wed night, with lows in the low/mid 30s as high pressure moves east of the region.
Southerly surface winds will continue to increase during the day Wednesday as the east-west surface pressure gradient tightens over the Plains in response to a deepening trough in the lee of the Rockies.
The issues during this time period will be the high and low temperatures over the snow covered areas across the northern cwa. Therefore, Wednesday will be much warmer than today with increasing south winds to 10 to 20 mph. Continue to expect mid and high level clouds to move over the region with the snow cover continuing to influence the highs across the northern cwa. A short wave trough from the west will come across the region Wednesday night. The overall weather map will show a broad 500mb trough across the western half of the nation, with the main feature being the low over northwestern Canada. At the surface, a trough will be set up from south central Manitoba through the Central Plains, with a few embedded lows.
Not expecting any impacts from this given the lack of moisture, but it will be cold enough for generally less than a half inch of snow accumulation across the higher elevations of southwest Virginia. Diegan Chattanooga Airport, TN 41 56 34 58 50 / 20 20 0 10 70 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 37 53 31 57 46 / 20 20 0 0 60 Oak Ridge, TN 36 54 30 55 46 / 20 30 0 0 60 Tri Cities Airport, TN 33 48 27 54 38 / 30 30 0 0 30.
155 AM MST Wed Dec 8 2021 NE PAC upper trough will cycle in the period as the current trough pushes east in longer wave form, with a new round of troughing developing this weekend. Split flow impulse will push a cold front through the region tonight, with some light snow developing over NE WY and the northern Black Hills, any amounts will generally be an inch or less.
Cold front will move into SE GA this morning. The front will move southeast of forecast area this evening, then high pressure will build to the north northwest overnight.
Pretty quiet day for Wednesday as southerly winds tick upwards and help usher in somewhat warmer air. Brief period of ridging for Wednesday become flattened by Thursday as troughing digs into the Western CONUS.
A stronger low pressure trough will bring more rain Wednesday night and Thursday.
(Today and tonight) A warming trend will begin today, as southerly winds bring milder (warmer) air back into north Texas and Oklahoma. A mid/upper-level wave will cross the central Plains, with an attendant surface cyclone, also centered over the central Plains.
This feature may kick off a very few light showers or maybe even a few flurries with temps near or below freezing at several locations. Following this wave, weak ridging will quickly slip by and that will keep us dry and warmer through Thursday.
Not expecting any impacts from this given the lack of moisture, but it will be cold enough for generally less than a half inch of snow accumulation across the higher elevations of southwest Virginia. A wave of low pressure will pass by the region this morning with MVFR cigs expected to prevail at CHA. JB Chattanooga Airport, TN 56 34 58 50 70 / 20 0 10 70 80 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 53 31 57 46 67 / 20 0 0 60 70 Oak Ridge, TN 54 30 55 46 67 / 30 0 0 60 70 Tri Cities Airport, TN 48 27 54 38 62 / 30 0 0 30 50.
926 PM MST Tue Dec 7 2021 Current surface analysis shows a frontal boundary generally along the lee of the northern and central Rockies, but starting to move northeastward as a warm front. Upper level analysis shows trough over eastern Canada and the northeast US, with a ridge off the Pacific Northwest coast. Milder air will briefly return for midweek as the warm front lifts northeast through the area later tonight and Wednesday. A cold front then sweeps through the area later Wednesday night and early Thursday.
Still dealing with impact of passing short wave trough this afternoon, which might be a bit stronger than previously thought. A bit of a break on Wednesday with short term ridging. By Wednesday night, mid level ridge passage will begin shift of overall flow. Next short wave trough will exit the Plains and as this approaches, expect low level warm air advection and lift to help saturate and break out precipitation by Thursday morning. If short duration mixed or freezing precipitation does materialize, might see some matching brief impacts to travel. Warmer air aloft does advect into southern areas ahead of system which could create more mixed precipitation south of KLSE, including more liquid closer to KDBQ. As broad upper ridge quickly sets in across mid CONUS, warm air advection will return quickly.
1031 PM CST Tue Dec 7 2021 High pressure will maintain mostly clear skies and light and variable winds overnight.
However, the front will rapidly return northward late Wednesday night through Thursday as heights begin to fall ahead of a developing low pressure system over the plains. Temperatures will be tricky depending the movement of the warm front. Highs on Wednesday will be in the low to mid 60s northwest of I-65 and upper 60s and low 70s southeast of I-65. Lows Wednesday night will be in the low to mid 40s inland to mid 50s along the coast.
Models are coming together on a solution which appears that the snow will start in the afternoon as cold front moves in from the west setting up just outside our CWA by 18Z.
The lowest clouds were entering central into northeast AL (in the 020-030agl range). Radar is showing light reflectivity associated with the lower clouds (stratiform) along with a few higher based sprinkles or showers as well. The developing cyclone heading off of the SE Coast on Wed should draw moisture over this region eastward, leading to sunny skies in the late morning and afternoon. Another chilly night Wed night, with lows in the low/mid 30s as high pressure moves east of the region. Warmer heights will help high temperatures rise into the low/mid 60s.
Lee troughing will continue to prevail today across the High Plains of eastern Colorado. One caveat to this is there could be increasing high clouds later today as UL trof approaches from the southwest tonight. A warm front will being to lift northward, bisecting a portion of the FA. North of the warm front, relatively cool upslope easterly flow is expected.
High pressure will be over the region this evening.
257 AM CST Wed Dec 8 2021 Overcast skies continue to hang around over northwest Minnesota this morning ahead of a sweeping cold front. Looking at forecast soundings, a stout warm nose is apparent at 850mb above the freezing layer.
Flow turns more westerly tonight as a trough approaches. A cold front will arrive Wednesday night, with snow increasing across the west and then southern areas through Thursday morning.
Dewpoint temperatures remain in the lower 70s, and winds are light and variable (generally under 5 mph). The large-scale pattern features a deep layer mean anticyclone centered over the northwestern Caribbean Sea, with ridges extending both to the ENE and WSW and a broad swath of deep westerlies to the north. At the surface, a rather weak pressure pattern prevails across the Florida Keys, with generally light northeasterly breezes south of a small high pressure cell centered over the Florida Peninsula. A weak ridge of high pressure will straddle Florida this evening through Wednesday, resulting in mainly light to gentle breezes across the Florida Keys.
Ridging will maintain dry conditions Wednesday night/Thursday.
High pressure will settle over the Mid-South today. Expect highs to be near normal with readings in the lower to mid 50s. The high will begin to shift east tonight allowing winds to begin to turn around to the south.
512 AM CST Wed Dec 8 2021 (Today and tonight) A warming trend will begin today, as southerly winds bring milder (warmer) air back into north Texas and Oklahoma. A mid/upper-level wave will cross the central Plains, with an attendant surface cyclone, also centered over the central Plains.
SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday): Mid-level high pressure begins to build across Deep South Texas as a 500mb trough works into the Rockies from the west, turning the flow aloft more southwesterly into Thursday. Low pressure comes off the Rockies and into the Plains on Thursday, strengthening the pressure gradient along the lower Texas coast, with moderate southerly winds by Thursday afternoon. As for temperatures, most locations will top normal highs this afternoon, landing into the low 80s.