Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
/issued 435 AM CST Wed Feb 15 2017/ The upper low has filled and is moving east of the area taking the precipitation with it, so quieter weather is expected for a couple of days.
1027 AM EST Wed Feb 15 2017 Low pressure moving into the forecast area this morning will merge with a cold front and move off the coast this afternoon.
Areas of low pressure are located over the Great Lakes and northwestern Mex, while a ridge axis extends from off the coast of central CA into the northern Rockies. At the surface, high pressure centered off to the west is resulting in west- northwest winds across the CWA, with a weak pressure gradient keeping speeds in the 5-10 MPH range. At the surface, winds will turn more west then southwesterly through the day as the main ridge axis slides off to the east, and a trough axis works its way east. expect high pressure to be in control the local weather pattern through the end of the work week.
/issued 410 AM CST Wed Feb 15 2017/ SHORT TERM (Today through Thursday): Mid level ridge will continue to build over South Texas today and Thursday as upstream trough deepens significantly as it dives south across NW Mexico. High pressure builds over South Texas tonight with a clear and cool night in store with model guidance suggesting 40s for all areas with exception to the immediate coast where lower 50s prevail. Temperatures recover into the low to mid 70s but with the light nature of return flow humidity to remain on the lower side. A gradual increase in mid and high level cloudiness is expected through the day as next upstream mid level trough digs into NW Mexico.
High pressure will move across our area Thursday providing fair weather.
MVFR cigs will continue to spread across the region this morning in the wake of a cold frontal passage. Local radar imagery and surface observations show the cold front extending roughly along a line from east of Camden to near Atmore and Bay Minette to east of Mobile as of 4 A. Much cooler temperatures are anticipated in the wake of the frontal passage today. Highs should range from the lower 60s west to the mid to upper 60s east. Lows tonight are forecast to range from the mid to upper 30s inland to the lower to mid 40s near the immediate coast.
NW wind will gradually become more N through the AFTN as high pressure begins to sink farther south into the region. Cool and dry airmass in place for the short term as high pressure moves into the area. Did cool temperatures further heading into tonight as the high settles and winds become light. Small Craft Advisory conditions will continue through today, gradually weakening from north to south this afternoon and evening as high pressure begins to settle into the region.
The cold air may remain trapped in lower valleys from Burns to Ontario, and into the Upper Treasure Valley through Thursday morning for a chance of light freezing rain. Snowfall accumulations will be limited to the higher elevations above 6000 feet.
Flow aloft has become more northerly over the Central Plains, as the upper low to our south yesterday continues to moves off to the east. Advection changes from cool to warm rather quickly, and as the surface trof translates over our forecast area in the afternoon, think this will bode well for some better mixing.
Winds should relax as high pressure settles over the are overnight tonight. Another closed low over the Big Bed region will bring high clouds across the area Thursday but a lack of low level moisture should prevent any rain chances.
A pre-frontal trough axis overnight brought between one quarter and one half of an inch of rainfall to northern Alabama/Southern Middle Tennessee. Even drier and colder air is behind the actual cold front that is now moving into the Muscle Shoals area and into Jackson county. There highs in the lower to mid 40s are expected there. Pleasant conditions will continue through the remainder of the work week as an upper ridge builds into the forecast area. Meanwhile, high pressure will develop along the Gulf Coast and southerly flow will return to the area by Thursday afternoon.
GAH PREVIOUS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION: A slight ridge in place over Northeast Montana this morning with a quick-moving trough moving across Western Canada will bring a strong westerly flow over the local region today. The base of the upper trough slide across Nemont during the late afternoon and early evening will spread low clouds across the area, and maybe some light snow and rain. Another upper ridge follows for Tuesday for continued above normal temperatures. Tuesday night will see the next wave, a fast-moving, tight, miniature cyclone that will march right through Northeast Montana, producing snow and wind.
1212 PM EST Mon Dec 19 2016 Cold Arctic high pressure builds over the area today. A warm front will move north of the region Tuesday.
The region sees warmer temperatures overnight with westerly winds bringing in warmer air near the surface as skies become partly cloudy.
1127 AM CST Mon Dec 19 2016 Bitter cold morning with temperatures just now climbing above the freezing mark along and south of I-20 and areas farther north soon to follow. Did make a few adjustments to max temperatures for this afternoon, mainly to lower highs over our northern sections which should remain in the upper 30s to right at 40 degrees while points farther south will reach the lower to mid 40s with a few exceptions. High pressure will settle across the region allowing northeast winds 5 to 10 knots today to become light and variable overnight.
Lapse rate analysis of modeled sounding data suggest differential heating of the daytime hours should accelerate the lower trop mixing needed to erode the inversion and scour the lingering moisture in that lowest 2-3K FT AGL. as the double digit line hovered roughly along the lower Ohio river. That'll be our first return back above the 32F freezing mark as well.
Made some major updates to the high temps today to account for the fact they won't be warming up much. Their forecast highs were in the lower to mid 40s but thanks to the clouds, they will be lucky to get to the mid 30s. Meanwhile, have warmed the highs quite a bit in the NW and they should get to the mid 30s, maybe upper 30s if clouds don't make it back in. High pressure layered across much of the region will continue to gradually shift ewd Tonight into Wed.
416 PM EST Mon Dec 19 2016 High pressure and a dry airmass will build across the region through mid week.
316 PM CST Mon Dec 19 2016 High pressure ridge has shifted southeastward into the Ohio River Valley, allowing a southerly return flow to commence across the KILX CWA this afternoon. Temperatures have responded nicely, with 20z/2pm readings well into the teens and in some cases the lower 20s. Afternoon highs will reach the middle 30s across most of the area, but will remain in the lower 30s along/west of the Illinois River where a slightly more substantial snow cover exists. Upper level heights to rise over the next few days as the cold 500 mb trof edges away from the Midwest.
309 PM CST Mon Dec 19 2016 Under mostly sunny skies, temperatures have risen to or above freezing at many locations across eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas this afternoon. The warming trend will continue for the next couple of days as the responsible high pressure system continues to shift to the east.
Will continue the wind chill advisory there and limit high temperatures to cooler guidance.
Today Through Tuesday Night The only thing of note in the short term are the ongoing cold temperatures associated with the arctic high pressure affecting the region. Expect that Little Rock will make it above the freezing mark today, but did lower the forecast high down to 33 from 35 to account for the CAD setup. Upper level flow across the lower 48 will remain fairly zonal with low amplitude troughing over a bulk of the central and eastern US.
The axis of the Arctic surface pressure ridge will settle along and north of the I-40 corridor.
Adjusted winds downward slightly during the transitional movement of the ridge through the area.
236 PM EST Mon Dec 19 2016 High pressure will control the region's weather for the first half of the week.
1206 PM EST Mon Dec 19 2016 A slow moving cold front has pushed just southeast of the forecast area.
141 PM PST Mon Dec 19 2016 Valley inversions should diminish for Tuesday as a fast moving cold front approaches the area.
Quiet and dry conditions can be expected tonight and Tuesday as a fairly weak flow aloft and drier air in the lower/mid levels persist across the Western High Plains during the period. The light southwesterly flow will continue Tuesday helping to draw slightly warmer air into the area pushing H85 temperatures well up into the single digits(C). However, expect highs to be hampered a bit by lingering snowpack so expect temperatures generally in the lower to mid 40s(F).
With 925mb winds increasing a bit overnight, expect an uptick in speeds again along and just to the east of the ridge line.
Today's highs will struggle to get much above freezing. We will climb above the freezing mark south of Interstate 40.
Yesterday, SD/ND/MN were the coldest states in the lower 48. This morning, southwesterly flow on the back side of a 1044mb high pressure bubble in the mid Mississippi River Valley has warmed temperatures above zero in MN. SD/ND/MN are now warmer early this morning than KS/MO/IL. A more zonal upper atmospheric pattern is setting up in the short term and thus the transition to warmer temperatures.
1018 AM MST Mon Dec 19 2016 Wide range of temps early this morning across the area, with coldest readings in the San Luis Valley and across the lower Arkansas Valley, where snow cover and fairly strong inversions have combined to drop readings well below zero. Air mass will continue to slowly moderate today as increased westerly flow brings warmer air aloft into the region, while surface arctic air gradually retreats farther to the east. Snow covered lower Arkansas River Valley from about Pueblo to Kansas will likely struggle to break the inversion once again, and temps around La Junta and Lamar may stay at or slightly below freezing. For the higher elevations, highs will be in the 20s and 30s.
Afternoon maximum temperatures still seem on track to rise a bit above freezing.
202 PM EST Mon Dec 19 2016 High pressure and a dry airmass will build across the region through mid week.
Temperatures climbing slowly above freezing across the northwest and we should continue to see roads dry and road temperatures climb across these areas so we have allowed the Special Weather Statement concerning black ice to expire. /Issued 310 AM EST Mon Dec 19 2016/ (Added black ice discussion) Early this morning some sub-freezing temps are making their way farther south than forecast and actually reaching the freezing mark now across metro Atlanta. Will be expanding the Special Weather Statement for patch black ice potential farther south to include the metro and keep the expiration at 11 AM when some farther north locations should warm above freezing. Drier midlevels start to advect southward by Tuesday so should finally start to see some scattering of the low cloud deck then across north GA.
248 PM CST Mon Dec 19 2016 Arctic high pressure is currently in control. As high pressure slides east tomorrow temperatures will moderate closer to normal.
Tonight the high clouds move overhead which should disrupt radiational cooling. Southwest winds 5 to 15 mph continue today associated with deep low pressure moving through the southern Canadian provinces. a weak cold front will move through the forecast area. This will set the stage for a mild day (actually warm compared to the last several days) as westerly downslope flow combined with warmer air mixing to to surface will help highs climb into the 40s.
A cold ridge of high pressure is stretched from the lower Great Lakes into North Texas this afternoon, and this ridge will continue to move into and across the Northwest Gulf Coast and Lower Mississippi Valley through tonight and Tuesday. A cold and very dry air mass is settling into the local area with the majority of the region falling to or below freezing this past morning. Freezing temperatures are expected north of a Cypremort Point to Patterson to Stephensville line.
A powerful winter storm will arrive tonight bringing snow to much of the Inland Northwest and freezing rain to the Moses Lake area.
Associated 850mb trof axis still remains back to the west of the forecast area, with midlevel southwesterly flow continuing to bring moisture up and over the building shallow, cold dome of high pressure. This trof will weaken and drift east today, being centered over the forecast area by midday. Until this occurs, the weak low level layer lifting will continue over the region, maintaining the low cloud deck with only slow erosion beginning this afternoon. With the low level cold air advection and persistent cloud cover today, another very cool day on tap.
/issued 419 AM CST Mon Dec 19 2016/ (Today and Tonight) Today will see warmer temperatures under some high cloud cover and northeast winds at 5-10 mph. Monday night will be around 10 degrees warmer than this morning with lows generally in the mid 20s.
Lows tonight will be warmer than last night with temperatures falling into the single digits above zero this evening then steady or slowly rising later tonight.
However, a combination of light west southwesterly flow and the previously mentioned approaching high clouds will help to keep temperatures at least a few degrees warmer than those observed this morning. Gentle west southwesterly flow ahead of an approaching front will also lead to warmer day time temperatures on Tuesday. We can expect to see afternoon high temperatures between 6 and 10 degrees warmer on Tuesday as the airmass begins to moderate with this relatively warm west southwesterly flow.
232 PM EST Mon Dec 19 2016 High pressure over the region will gradually settle south of New England tonight through Tuesday.
Stronger near surface winds perpendicular to the Buffalo Ridge this afternoon has led to local enhancement of wind speeds. With the trough exiting to the east by midday Tuesday, winds resume a southwesterly direction and will continue tapping into milder temperatures. Still expect highs right around freezing, and as warm as the upper 30s near the Missouri River.
Improvement will continue through the morning as warmer air continues to spread over the region. Surface map early this morning has high pressure sliding southeast toward the Ohio River Valley as an area of low pressure was moving through southern Manitoba. Warm air advection/rather brisk southwest winds continue tonight into Tuesday in warm sector of low pressure moving through southern Canada. Otherwise, plan on lows tonight in the teens and highs Tuesday in the lower 30s. Clouds spread in Tuesday night ahead of low pressure drooping southeast from Canada.
Low level northeasterly flow continues to filter that cooler air into Central Alabama. So, if you went outside, you'd actually see clouds moving in two opposite directions if you had enough breaks in the lower stratus like we do along the I-65 corridor. So what does this mean for the weather today? With the huge inversion in place, the low stratus isn't expected to mix much across eastern Alabama.
At the surface, winds are southwesterly, as the CWA sits on the northeast side of an area of high pressure extending from the Great Lakes into the Southern Plains. As far as temperatures go, still looking at another bump up in highs, as a "warmer" air mass builds in from the west. Expecting plenty of sun through the day, with forecast highs reaching at least the freezing mark for most of the CWA.
258 PM EST Mon Dec 19 2016 High pressure will build in and settle over the region tonight.
Arctic high pressure is currently centered over Illinois.
Temps have already reached the mid 20s in the west early this morning, and this warmer air should spread eastward throughout the day. Winds will shift to the west behind the trough axis but remain fairly breezy.
1029 AM CST Mon Dec 19 2016 Warmer air continues to slowly build across the region this morning. We will start off this period between high pressure across IL and low pressure across southern Manitoba with the parent low over British Columbia.
1103 AM CST Mon Dec 19 2016 Both the wind chill and freeze warning were allowed to expire this morning as temperatures have risen above freezing with wind chills now in the upper-20s. Large 1044mb high, centered in North Texas, is keeping the low- level arctic airmass in place though with clouds clearing quicker than previously expected we should be a few degrees warmer than yesterday. Overcast skies over these counties should keep the temperatures from falling below freezing. High pressure continues to build into the region this morning with gusty winds still over the coastal counties. The cloud deck is expected to remain over the area tonight which will keep the temperatures from falling below freezing.
Warmer air will advect into the area ahead of the next trough. A rain/snow mix is expected to follow the cold front, mainly across northwestern/central SD and the Black Hills.
1217 PM EST Mon Dec 19 2016 Strong high pressure will build across the region into Monday with a brief return to cold temperatures.
Very High With a +2 to +3 std dev area of high pressure passing through the middle of the country, expect a quiet short term forecast period. With this high to our southeast, strong WAA/SW flow will continue into Iowa.
While the forecast will be much above straight model temps, have stayed shy of the high end of things for a few reasons.
/issued 317 AM CST Mon Dec 19 2016/ Have a broad trough across the center of the country extending back to a cut off low off Baja. As the main trough moves east the cut off low will continue to spin the next several days.
/Issued 434 AM CST Mon Dec 19 2016/ Latest water vapor imagery places broad trough lifting up towards the northeast states. Meanwhile, a cutoff upper level low is spinning off the Pacific coast of the Baja Peninsula. This low is sending some high level cirrus clouds into the Panhandles which should persist through the morning hours.
354 PM CST Mon Dec 19 2016 High pressure from the Pacific will attempt to build over the area in the coming days, but will be suppressed by multiple systems swinging across the northern states. Satellite imagery also shows a cutoff upper level low off the Baja coast, that will linger and help to advect warmer air from the south to our area. It would be a bit warmer but a weak cold front will push through on Tuesday and provide northerly flow in the afternoon.
The core of the high should be across our area tonight into tomorrow morning, keeping cold air in place overnight into tomorrow. Lows tonight will be again in the mid to upper 30s, with true freezing temperatures not expected. Aloft, high pressure shifts back to the west across south Texas/ northwest Mexico, which will keep winds light at all levels.
An upper level trough weakens and continues to shift east over the eastern CONUS tonight into Tuesday, with flow becoming more zonal aloft over the region. At the surface, high pressure centered over the middle Mississippi River Valley moves little overnight before slowly building southeast into the Tennessee Valley through Tuesday, resulting in persistent (albeit weakening) northeast surface flow across the central Gulf coast through the near term. Low temperatures tonight once again expected to dip into the low 30's well inland to low 40's near the coast.
A ridge of high pressure remains over the central US resulting in dry conditions and temperatures near to slightly above normal for the next couple days.
351 PM EST Mon Dec 19 2016 Upper air pattern consists of a broad 500 mb trough over most of the U. Models depict ridging moving in behind midweek system with mainly dry conditions Thu into Fri along with a continued warming trend as high temps should reach at or above freezing at many locations.
Near the surface, a lee side trough of low pressure is strengthening across eastern Colorado. Have gone a little cooler in the higher snowpack areas and warmer where little snow fell. The good news is it will be warmer than compared to yesterday and some of the snow should melt today, depending how how much of a warm up there is.
Upper level trough is moving into the Pacific Northwest. A complicated situation will arise overnight and Tuesday when surface temps are still below freezing while above-freezing air comes in above it. This will result in areas of freezing rain or sleet, especially on Tuesday. Current winter storm watch for northern zones in Idaho will be upgraded to winter storm warning for heavy snow there, while zones as far south as the Treasure Valley will come under a winter weather advisory for snow and/or sleet and freezing rain late tonight through Tuesday.
Warmer temperatures will return to the CWA today through Tuesday aided by sunshine and downslope flow as the cold arctic high moves farther away from the area. Dry weather through early Tuesday afternoon then should see snow showers increase over the higher mtns late Tuesday as the enhanced moisture rides up the facing slopes.
This weather system will deliver moderate to heavy snow to the high terrain and a mix of snow, patchy freezing rain, and rain to the valleys of west central Idaho and western Montana. The Camas Prairie to Orofino areas will be impacted first after midnight with periods of snow and local freezing rain. However, the very cold ground will probably support intermittent freezing rain, especially the Bitterroot Valley northward across Missoula and to about Plains and the Mission Valley early Tuesday. A cold front will deliver a colder air mass back over the northern Rockies Tuesday afternoon and evening.
113 PM EST Mon Dec 19 2016 A slow moving cold front has pushed just southeast of the forecast area.
Some upstream mid-high level clouds may lessen the high albedo effect, but still hedging toward the cooler end of the guidance for today, which results in highs from the lower 20s over most of southwest Minnesota, to around 30 through the Missouri River Valley. The other concern will be winds in higher elevations, specifically along and in the eastern downslope areas of the Buffalo Ridge. With southwesterly cross-ridge flow of 35-40kts at 925mb, will continue to see some enhanced winds along and downstream of the ridge. Early lows will be in the lower to mid 20s.
230 PM EST Mon Dec 19 2016 Quiet weather is expected over the next 24 hours as high pressure controls regional conditions.
1125 AM CST Mon Dec 19 2016 Warmer air continues to slowly build across the region this morning. We will start off this period between high pressure across IL and low pressure across southern Manitoba with the parent low over British Columbia.
245 PM CST Mon Dec 19 2016 WV imagery shows the west coast trough has closed and pinched off from the main flow, and set up off the coast of Baja. This has resulted in SW flow aloft over West Texas and Southeast New Mexico, which is entraining subtropical moisture/high clouds thru the base of the trough and over the region. This is putting a damper on afternoon highs, but temps have nevertheless climbed above freezing as sfc flow has veered around to SE. Clouds are forecast to thin out some overnight, but lows should bottom out considerable warmer than last night.
Meanwhile, a trof of low pressure will move across the Upper Midwest late tonight and Tuesday.
High pressure will continue to move off towards the east and bring southerly flow to the region. The change in wind will advect warmer air back into the region. With good return flow on Tuesday the highs on Tuesday should rebound very well with readings in the 40s.
Looking upstream, a fast moving ridge/trough couplet lie over the British Columbian coast and stretch back into the Gulf of Alaska.
Expect cold overnight low temperatures with single digits to teens across much of the high country. A quiet week with a dynamic weekend is expected as an elongated trough currently over the southwest will split into a closed off low, centered off of Baja California.