Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
PERSISTENT CIRCULATION OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FINALLY WEAKENS AND SHIFTS NORTH OR BECOMES RE-ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST LATER TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS A COUPLE SHORT WAVES DROP THROUGH THE BASE OF THE PLAINS LONG WAVE TROUGH. THE TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY INTO THE EASTERN U. DOWNSLOPE FLOW SHOULD KEEP PRECIPITATION RATHER LIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE GREAT VALLEY WITH MODERATE SHOWERS ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN FEATURES. THE HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT WITH THE 55-60 KT LOW LEVEL JET BUILDING INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND EXITING DURING THE MORNING ON WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES COULD BE A LITTLE TRICKY WITH LIKELY RISING TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT (TOUGH TO TELL WHERE AND WHEN THE ACTUAL LOWS WILL BE) AND THEN IT LOOKS LIKE A MILD DAY ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW FILLING IN AHEAD OF THE DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH.
355 PM EDT TUE OCT 27 2015 CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT RAIN HAS DOMINATED THE AREA THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT.
A LOW PRESSURE TROF HAS MOVED EAST OF THE REGION AND THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT HAS MOVED INTO SOUTHWEST MONTANA. A LOW PRESSURE TROF IS MOVING EAST OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE WEST.
Upstream trough should swing thru W-E from this evng into the overnight hours. SHORT TERM: (Through Late This Afternoon) Rain at the MO/AR border has been slow to spread northward early this morning, although a secondary area of pcpn did develop farther north (roughly from KCOU to KMTO) overnight due to lift over a baroclinic zone which is acting as an effective warm front across central MO/IL. Those showers should continue spreading northward with the lifting warm front, although twenty degree dew point depressions noted on the cool/dry side of the boundary may limit accums until the bdry has lifted farther to the north.
A DAMPENED AND BROAD TROUGH AXIS IS SHIFTING THROUGH TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON BUT WITH PWATS NEAR 0.
353 PM EDT TUE OCT 27 2015 COASTAL FLOODING HAS CONTINUED TODAY WITH THIS MORNING'S HIGH TIDE AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE HIGH TIDE CYCLES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AN AREA OF RAIN IS MOVING ONSHORE THE GULF COAST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO SOUTH FL ON WEDNESDAY WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR ALL LOCALES. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN OVER THE WEEKEND WITH SOME DRIER AIR PUNCHING IN FROM THE EAST AS EASTERLY FLOW PICKS UP A BIT.
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 356 PM EDT TUE OCT 27 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON MOVES EAST TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
325 PM CDT TUE OCT 27 2015 LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN INTO ANOTHER LOW ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS WHERE A TIGHT CIRCULATION IS SHOWING UP ACROSS EASTERN WYOMING INTO SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA/EXTREME NORTHWEST NEBRASKA. A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES CONTINUE TO SHOW UP WITHIN THIS TROUGH AND WE CAN NOT RULE OUT A CLAP OR TWO OF THUNDER THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE TROUGH AXIS PROGRESSES EAST THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDS AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH. WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM EASTERN SASKATCHEWAN THROUGH THE WESTERN DAKOTAS AND INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT.
High pressure has begun to build into western Montana and central Idaho this afternoon, largely bringing an end to shower activity. Areas of fog could cause some slick spots on bridges/overpasses for the morning commute, especially in valleys of western Montana where morning temperature could dip into the mid 20s, and even colder along the Continental Divide.
354 PM CDT TUE OCT 27 2015 (Tonight and Wednesday) Continued dry through the next 24 hours, but a cold front will sweep through the area Wednesday. Clear skies, and westerly downsloping winds have led to much warmer temperatures today with current readings mainly in the mid 80s. By early Wednesday morning, a cold front will be moving through the I-20 corridor. The front should be through the I-10 corridor by shortly after 10 AM tomorrow, resulting in gusty north winds across the area, and highs of around 10 degrees cooler.
THE WIND WILL BECOME NORTHERLY IN THE MORNING WITH A WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS THE MORNING CLOUD COVER CONTINUING TO MOVE EASTWARD WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT BROUGHT SO MUCH RAINFALL TO THE STATE A FEW DAYS AGO. ON THE HEELS OF THIS SYSTEM IS A COLD FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TOMORROW.
Winds will become gusty at 15 to 30 mph with an associated cold front. For Wednesday, expect clearing skies behind the upper wave and highs in the low to mid 60s. Cold high pressure at the surface will push into western Kansas by morning with light and variable winds becoming light north.
334 PM CDT TUE OCT 27 2015 CONTINUE TO WATCH A COLD FRONT SLOWLY MAKE ITS WAY EAST ACROSS THE CWA WITH STRATUS DECK ON ITS HEELS. MUCH COOLER TEMPS WILL ALSO BE MOVING INTO THE AREA TOMORROW AS 850 MB TEMPS QUICKLY DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO CELSIUS BY 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING.
A cold front will turn southwest winds to north and gusty tomorrow starting at KABI around 13Z/8AM, moving through the rest of the sites by around 15Z/10AM Wednesday. A cold front will shift winds at KABI to the northwest to north around 12KTS towards 12Z Wednesday. /ISSUED 434 AM CDT TUE OCT 27 2015/ (Today and Tonight) It will be warmer today, with downslope southwest to west winds of 5 to 15 mph. Most areas should warm to highs into the lower 80s. A cold front will move into the Big Country along the I-20 corridor towards sunrise Wednesday. Atmospheric mixing with stronger winds near the front should keep temperatures slightly warmer in the lower 50s. Expect breezy north winds Wednesday with cooler highs in the lower to mid 70s.
MEANWHILE, THE HIGHER TERRAIN WEST OF THE CASCADES WILL SEE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF UP TO A HALF OF AN INCH. WINDS WILL BE MODERATELY STRONG ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE CASCADES AND EAST SIDE.
314 PM EDT TUE OCT 27 2015 A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM, WILL BRING ONE MORE DRY DAY TO THE AREA. A STRENGTHENING STORM SYSTEM, OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION, ALONG WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT, WILL BRING RAINY, WINDY, AND MILD CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY. WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING CONTINUE TO LOOK RAINY AND WINDY, AS A SIGNIFICANTLY DEEPENING CYCLONE LIFTS NORTHWARD THROUGH THE WESTERN/CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION, AND A TRAILING COLD FRONT APPROACHES NY/PA FROM THE WEST. NAM/GFS PROFILES SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF WEAKLY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS (100-300 J/KG OF ML CAPE), JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT, IN THE LATE AFTERNOON-EVENING PERIOD, SO A MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER WAS ADDED.
A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD INTO NEW MEXICO TONIGHT WITH FREEZING TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE IN PARTS OF THE NORTHWEST PLATEAU AND NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS.
401 PM CDT TUE OCT 27 2015 COLD FRONT MOVING INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS AT THIS TIME IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH ALL OF THE OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY.
CONDITIONS VARY FROM LIFR AT CHA TO VFR AT BOTH TYS AND TRI DESPITE THE INCREDIBLE AMOUNT OF MOIST AIR THAT IS STREAMING AHEAD OF THE DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTER OF THE NATION. THE WARMING AND DRYING OF THE DESCENDING AIRMASS IN THE GREAT VALLEY IS SCATTERING OUT LAYERS BELOW TEN THOUSAND FEET AND THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE DEEP INTO THE NIGHT AS THE STRONG SOUTHEAST COMPONENT TO THE LOW LEVEL FLOW CROSSES THE TERRAIN.
A DECAYING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM (1007 MB) IS LOCATED OVER SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI. WITH A TROUGH ALIGNED INTO THE EAST CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.
344 PM CDT TUE OCT 27 2015 EXPECT LLVL FLOW TO TRANSITION TO A SW/WLY DIRECTION AS THE LOW PRES AREA THAT PUSHED THRU LAST WEEKEND CONTINUES TO MOVE FURTHER NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. LARGE SCALE LIFT SHOULD INCREASE AS UPPER TROF APPROACHES AND ANTICIPATE INCREASING PRECIP COVERAGE WEST-TO-EAST LATE IN THE AFTN AND EARLY EVNG HOURS FRI.
A WEAK COLD FRONT AND TRAILING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BRING A LITTLE RAIN LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A CLOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION ALONG THE GULF COAST. MOSTLY PATCHY LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND INTO TONIGHT AS WARM AIR ALOFT OVERRIDES COOLER LOW LEVEL AIR. AS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION TRACKS NORTHWARD. SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY TONIGHT AND TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY RISE AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD. AS A WARM FRONT ALONG THE COAST LIFTS NORTHWARD.
THE HIGHEST CHANCES (60-80%) WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA WITH DECREASING RAIN CHANCES EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH.
225 PM MDT TUE OCT 27 2015 RADAR AND OBSERVATIONS SHOWING DECENT OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS DUE TO UPPER TROF OVER WYOMING AND MODEST QG ASCENT AND STEEP LAPSE RATES. THE TROF AXIS SWINGS ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO THIS EVENING WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE DEVELOPING BEHIND IT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS. STILL EXPECT GUSTY WINDS IN THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS WITH THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DEVELOPING MTN TOP STABLE LAYER. WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE A DRY DAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS ACROSS COLORADO. STILL SOME WINDS IN THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS WITH COOL TEMPS DURING THE DAY AND CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT. MOST PLACES OVER THE PLAINS WILL LIKELY DIP INTO THE LOW 30S TO UPPER 20S FOR LOWS OVERNIGHT.
A COLD FRONT WILL MAINTAIN COOL TEMPERATURES AND BRING WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
421 PM EDT TUE OCT 27 2015 A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK NORTH THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND INTO THE WESTERN UPPER GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT.
318 PM CDT TUE OCT 27 2015 The prominent features to note this period include an upper level trough extending into central Kansas moving east through the area tonight. With more breaks in the cloud cover this morning, high temperatures were adjusted slightly warmer in western half of the CWA than in the east, ranging from the low 60s to mid 50s. With the final push of the trough early tomorrow morning, skies will begin to clear and rain chances are expected to end. As for temperatures, should see temperatures make their way into the low 60s as mostly sunny skies will allow for strong diurnal heating. Reinforcing cold front passes Wednesday night with decent low level lift but limited moisture. Have lowered temps a bit but, bringing lows to near freezing.
Cloud cover will remain over the area with temperatures on track as forecast in the lower 60s. This could result in temperatures approaching the freezing mark.
THE FRONT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER WYOMING AT MID-AFTN THAT WILL TRANSLATE SEWD TO WRN OKLAHOMA BEFORE SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. THIS COMPACT FAST-MOVING TROUGH WILL HAVE ENOUGH LIFT TO GENERATE A MID LEVEL CLOUD FIELD AND MAYBE SOME SHOWERS. HIGHS WEDNESDAY LOOK TO BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY GIVEN PROGGED THICKNESS DECREASES. THIS FAVORS SIDING TOWARD THE COOLER SIDE OF MOS IN LINE WITH PREVIOUS FCST.
IT HAS DRIFTED SLOWLY EAST THOUGH AS COLD FRONT TO OUR WEST MOVES EAST. MAIN BAND IS ALONG THE HIGHWAY 2 CORRIDOR AND LIFTING NORTH. BUT GENERALLY LOOKING AT SIMILAR OR SLIGHTLY WARMER HIGHS REGION WIDE. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD EXIT OFF TO THE EAST THU INTO THU NIGHT FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE.
WINDS WERE NORTHWESTERLY AND LIGHT AT ALL THREE TAF SITES AND THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL UNTIL A COLD FRONT ARRIVES THIS EVENING.
302 PM CDT TUE OCT 27 2015 THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION OVER SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI WILL LIFT NORTHWARD TONIGHT AND PULL A WARM FRONT OVER SOUTHWEST ALABAMA NORTHWARD. THE COOL AIR MASS IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA WILL BE REPLACED BY A WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR MASS BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. GRADUAL CLEARING BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS THE FIRST OF 2 UPPER TROUGHS/WAVES MOVE THROUGH.
317 PM CDT TUE OCT 27 2015 THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY WORKING SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST AND WESTERN ZONES. TEMPERATURES MAY BE COOLER.
/issued 310 AM CST MON DEC 14 2015/ One upper low is departing the area but another will quickly follow tonight. The first low has scoured out the low level moisture so there will not be a chance for rain with this next system, though there will be a return of strong winds to the Guadalupe Mountains. Today will be the warmest day of this forecast period as the next upper low brings a cold front that will keep cooler air in the region through the week. Tuesday will be windy behind the cold front, then a broad upper ridge will help the winds diminish the latter half of the week.
335 AM MST MON DEC 14 2015 THE NEXT TROUGH WILL MOVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO SOUTHEASTERN UTAH THIS MORNING. THE MDLS SHOW A TIGHTLY WOUND TROUGH AT 500 MB WITH STRONG MID LEVEL QG ASCENT OVER WESTERN CO THIS EVENING. MDLS SOUNDINGS DO HINT AT SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE THIS EVENING. STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PRODUCE LOW LEVEL DOWNSLOPE OFF THE CHEYENNE RIDGE LATE TONIGHT. UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO WILL QUICKLY LIFT NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY AND BE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT. AS THE LOW PROGRESSES EAST. SNOW WILL LINGER LONGER DUE TO A LACK OF DOWNSLOPE AND LIFT ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW.
629 AM EST MON DEC 14 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING PUSHING A BAND OF SHOWERS WITH IT.
1016 AM EST MON DEC 14 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
MORNING RAOBS/USAF PROFILER DATA SHOWING A BRISK SRLY FLOW THRU THE H100-H70 LYR AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT NOSING ITS WAY THRU THE DEEP SOUTH. THOUGH A DEEP HI PRES RIDGE CENTERED SW OF BERMUDA WILL FORCE THE FRONT TO STALL AS IT WORKS ITS WAY INTO THE BIG BEND REGION. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS EXPECTED TO VEER TO SW THRU THE AFTN AS THE FRONTAL TROF BEGINS TO STALL OVER THE PANHANDLE.
701 AM EST MON DEC 14 2015 THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW STRONG LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER IOWA WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES LATER TODAY. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS INDIANA THIS MORNING.
1036 AM EST MON DEC 14 2015 A STORM WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION LATE TODAY.
850 AM EST MON DEC 14 2015 A STORM WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION TODAY.
437 AM CST MON DEC 14 2015 THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM RESPONSIBLE FOR A VARIETY OF WEATHER THE PAST COUPLE DAYS.
1013 AM EST MON DEC 14 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
STRONG AND GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT.
A COLD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN U. PRECIP WILL BE LIGHT AND SNOW AMOUNTS WILL MAINLY BE AN INCH OR LESS, WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS LIFTED NORTH OF THE REGION LEAVING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH A FEW SPRINKLES POSSIBLE OUT OF THE LOWER CLOUDS AS THE HUMID SOUTH FLOW CONTINUES TODAY. APPROACHING COLD FRONT WITH A NARROW BAND OF HEAVY SHOWERS PRECEDING IT WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION THIS EVENING. FOLLOWED BY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS/DRIZZLE AND DEVELOPING FOG DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE COLD FRONT STALLS ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA AND ENERGY CONTINUES TO STREAM OUT OF THE GOMEX ACROSS THE REGION.
605 AM CST MON DEC 14 2015 IMPRESSIVE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE GENERATING RAIN AND SNOW THIS MORNING BEFORE MOVING OFF TO THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON.
627 AM EST MON DEC 14 2015 A STORM WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY.
THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL KEEP HIGHS SLIGHTLY COOLER TODAY THAN OVER THE WEEKEND.
602 AM CST MON DEC 14 2015 Strong low pressure, currently centered over eastern Iowa, will continue to impact central and southeast Illinois today. The cold front associated with the system currently extends southeast across northern Illinois, and has already cleared entire forecast area. That being said, daytime highs will still be well above normal, in the lower 50s, for the middle of December. However, the upper low/cold pool driving the surface system is still centered near the KS/MO border area.
844 AM EST MON DEC 14 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS TODAY AND COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY. WITH THE COLD FRONT TAKING ITS TIME APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. AND MAY STILL BE SLIGHTLY ON THE LOW SIDE WITH A FORECAST OF 30-35 MPH. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE TRAVERSING WESTERN PA THIS EVENING. GRADUAL POP DIMINISHMENT IS PROGGED IN THE DEVELOPING COLD ADVECTION UNDER THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS.
THERE ARE STILL A COUPLE OF DISTURBANCES THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON THE BACK SIDE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH, THE AXIS OF WHICH IS CENTERED OVER IDAHO AND NEVADA EARLY THIS MORNING. THE LATEST HRRR IS SHOWING ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MOVING IN THIS AFTERNOON, WHICH WILL KEEP SHOWERS GOING INTO THE EVENING HOURS, BUT SNOW LEVELS SHOULD RISE TO NEAR 2000 FEET WEST OF THE CASCADES AND ROAD SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE SIGNIFICANT SNOW IMPACTS AT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. AN UPPER RIDGE OFFSHORE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE AREA TONIGHT.
WITH WELL BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES AND SUB-FREEZING LOW TEMPERATURES LIKELY FOR MUCH OF THIS WEEK. UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MIGRATE THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN THIS MORNING. WITH THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT LOCATED APPROXIMATELY ALONG I-17 AS OF 15Z. BY EARLY THIS EVENING THE COLD FRONT WILL BE WELL EAST OF THE GREATER PHOENIX AREA AND THERE WILL DECREASING CHANCES OF RAIN AND HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW OVER SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY WITH SKIES BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR AFTER MIDNIGHT. EXPECT THE LOWER DESERTS TO BE MOSTLY CLEAR BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WITH LIGHT WINDS AND COLD OVERNIGHT TEMPS. AND ALLOWING THE LOWER DESERTS TO BECOME QUITE COLD.
LINE OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY WORKING ITS WAY THROUGH OUR AREA. CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 64 45 67 40 / 90 0 0 10 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 67 45 64 39 / 90 10 0 10 OAK RIDGE, TN 64 46 63 40 / 100 10 0 10 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 67 44 62 34 / 90 10 10 0 NC.
507 AM CST MON DEC 14 2015 SHORT WAVE TROUGH CENTERED OVER E KS THIS MONDAY MORNING TO CONTINUE MOVING NE THROUGH TUESDAY INTO THE NE US.
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING OVER NRN NEVADA WITH A PLUME OF MOISTURE SURGING NORTH INTO MONTANA.
THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT THAT IS STRETCHED FROM SE IA. BUT EITHER WAY A SHIFT TO MORE WESTERLY WIND DIRECTION SHOULD INTRODUCE MUCH COOLER AIR THAN WE HAVE SEEN THE PAST FEW NIGHTS. WHILE WE SEE COOLER AIR BEHIND THIS SYSTEM THE MORE WINTER SEASON AIR REMAINS LOCKED UP WELL NORTH OF THE REGION.
A MARITIME TROPICAL AIR MASS IS BATHING THE KEYS ISLAND COMMUNITIES WHERE AIR TEMPERATURES ALREADY ARE IN THE LOWER 80S WITH DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S. THE HIGH EQUIVALENT POTENTIAL TEMPERATURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS HELPING TO YIELD MODERATE CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY.
A COLD FRONT WILL REACH KDRT BY 12Z TUESDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS REBOUNDING INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S.
Freezing fog has developed and has begun to affect valleys in and around this area, including the Flathead valley, and will likely continue through later this morning.
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY EXITS THE AREA. A RIDGE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER TONIGHT.
POST COLD FRONTAL WINDS AS WERE GUSTING TO 49 MPH AT TWF AND 38 MPH AT MUO AS OF 3 AM. RADAR/SATELLITE SHOWED AN UPPER LOW CIRCULATION OVER SW IDAHO WHICH WILL BE SLOW TO EXIT S-CENTRAL IDAHO TODAY WHERE A SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE. TEMPERATURES DROPPED BELOW 32 ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL IDAHO AND WILL CHANGE LITTLE TODAY DUE TO SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED OVER FAR SE OWYHEE AND TWIN FALLS COUNTIES UNDER THE UPPER LOW.
730 AM MST MON DEC 14 2015 THE NEXT TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHEASTERN UTAH THIS MORNING. THE MDLS SHOW A TIGHTLY WOUND TROUGH AT 500 MB WITH STRONG MID LEVEL QG ASCENT OVER WESTERN CO THIS EVENING. MDLS SOUNDINGS DO HINT AT SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE THIS EVENING. STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PRODUCE LOW LEVEL DOWNSLOPE OFF THE CHEYENNE RIDGE LATE TONIGHT. UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO WILL QUICKLY LIFT NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY AND BE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT. AS THE LOW PROGRESSES EAST. SNOW WILL LINGER LONGER DUE TO A LACK OF DOWNSLOPE AND LIFT ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW.
WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS A TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE INTERIOR WEST. ROAD SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE NOW FALLEN TO OR BELOW FREEZING MOST EVERYWHERE. MSAS AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THE COLD FRONT HAS MADE IT THROUGH CEDAR CITY AND PRICE. HRRR-3KM ALONG WITH NCEP/LOCAL WRF MODELS INDICATE GREATEST PRECIPITATION RATES SHOULD STRETCH FROM SOUTHWEST UTAH INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTH CENTRAL UTAH BETWEEN 12Z-18Z.
A Pacific airmass will move in, bringing cooler temperatures with highs only in the 40s this afternoon. It will be nice to see some sunshine later today as the upper low exits east. Cooler air means overnight lows falling into the 30s tonight.
AS THE LOW IS DROPPING SOUTH INTO UTAH AND NEVADA.
THIS CLOSED LOW WILL BE NEAR THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION THIS EVENING AND WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST OVER THE HIGH PLAINS BY LATE TOMORROW. WARMER TEMPERATURES AT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS SHOULD LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.
CURRENT STORM WINDING DOWN AND FURTHER CANCELLATION OF WINTER ALOFT: LOW PRES WAS OVER ERN KS AT 08Z AND WAS EXITING THE WRN USA LONGWAVE TROF. THIS LOW WILL HEAD INTO THE GREAT LAKES TODAY. THERE IS AN EXPANSIVE SHIELD OF STRATUS IN THE W AND N QUADRANTS OF THIS LOW.
COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY CROSSING THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU ABOUT TO HEAD INTO EAST TENNESSEE.
A large cutoff +PV anomaly has developed a nearly stacked low pressure system over the Middle Mississippi Valley this morning. Stretching down through the Southeast from this system is a cold front, visible on radar by the thin, mostly continuous band of showers.
SHOWERS DIMINISHING THIS MORNING WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS CONTINUING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT DEPARTS THE REGION. COOLER TODAY AND TUESDAY WITH FROST POSSIBLE IN THE VALLEYS EACH NIGHT. THEN FAIR AND WARMER THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE POISED TO MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. ALSO THE MODELS ARE SHOWING VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY WHICH SUGGESTS THERE WILL BE VERY LITTLE CONNECTION BETWEEN THE LOWER LEVELS AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. SNOW WILL BE TAPERING OFF BY TUES EVENING/NIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES QUICKLY INTO NEBRASKA. A TRANSITION TO A WARMER/DRIER PATTERN WILL OCCUR BY FRI INTO THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA.
641 AM EST MON DEC 14 2015 A STORM WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY.
1035 AM EST MON DEC 14 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC LATE TONIGHT.
540 AM EST MON DEC 14 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS TODAY AND COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY. GIVEN AN IMPROVING CONFIDENCE IN EVENTUAL RAIN COVERAGE WITH THE ADVANCE AND PASSAGE OF TODAYS COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE TRAVERSING WESTERN PA THIS EVENING. GRADUAL POP DIMINISHMENT IS PROGGED IN THE DEVELOPING COLD ADVECTION UNDER THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS.
TODAY-TONIGHT: UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NE THIS MORNING. TUE: WATER VAPOR LOOP ALREADY SHOWING NEXT TROUGH DIGGING IN THE WESTERN US. THE BIGGER STORY WILL BE THE INCREASE IN WINDS AS A WELL DEVELOPED DRY SLOT ROTATES AROUND THE LOW. TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE AS TROUGH MOVES NORTHEAST AND RELATIVELY ZONAL UPPER FLOW AND LOW LEVEL RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS. MUCH OF THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODEL DATA SUGGESTS THAT MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
Lingering snowbands are collapsing quickly early this morning, as intense 534 dm cyclone over SE KS begins to accelerate away. Subsidence behind the departing system will clear the sky quickly this morning, allowing temperatures to fall well below freezing. Strong kicker trough over Nevada this morning will race eastward, strengthening as it does, ending up as another intense 534 dm low over SE Colorado around 6 AM Tuesday. Intense cold closed low migrates to near North Platte by late afternoon.