Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
525 AM EDT Sun Oct 17 2021 Scattered showers are expected today, mainly north of Pittsburgh, with a trough of low pressure. Otherwise, dry weather is expected through mid week under building high pressure. Areas of stratocu are expected to persist across the region today in cool NW flow aloft, and under broad upper troughing. Scattered showers are also expected, mainly N of PIT, with the crossing trough and some lake enhancement in WNW boundary layer flow. Scattered showers N of PIT should gradually diminish tonight as the trough shifts east and subsidence inversion levels lower.
06Z data has high pressure from the lower Mississippi Valley into the upper Midwest. Quiet and dry conditions will be seen today with warmer temperatures.
79 Previous Discussion: /Through Sunday Night/ Ridging aloft and a deep layer of dry air will result in quiet weather across North and Central Texas through Sunday night. It will be mild on Sunday with highs in the lower and middle 70s. /Issued 254 AM CDT Sun Oct 17 2021/ /Monday and beyond/ Ridging aloft will shift slowly and steadily east through the Plains while an upper low enters the western CONUS on its heels.
As the ridge moves south, warm advection will return to the region today and especially on Monday, with weak downslope conditions today with better downslope flow on Monday. Models are coming in a little faster with this system than previous runs, which will limit the amount of moisture return available ahead of the cold front for shower and storm chances. Ketcham Medium range models suggest that weak ridging will move in for Wed into Thu, with cold advection behind the front leading to cooler, below normal temperatures for Wed through at least Fri. Ketcham * VFR conditions over the next 24 hours * Gusty, south winds Monday High pressure over the Lower MS Valley will slowly slide east as lee troughing deepens over the High Plains.
On the east side of the high where the surface pressure gradient is a little tighter, the winds are generally north to northwesterly with a few occasional gusts up to 20 mph. Monday will be another stellar day as high pressure remains nearly stationary centered over Tennessee.
In the wake of yesterday's cold front dry and cool weather will prevail. Coolest areas will be in the lower to mid 40s.
The upper trough will continue to move over the east coast and off over the Atlantic through Monday. Meanwhile, an upper ridge will build in over the southeastern CONUS from the west during this time. At the surface, high pressure will continue to build into the region and then over the Appalachians during the short term. Highs will then be slightly warmer Monday afternoon, with temperatures in the lower to mid 70s.
1231 PM CDT Sun Oct 17 2021 (Today and tonight) Slightly warmer today with a return to a more southerly component in the lower level flow, but warm up will be minimized by increase in cirrus across southern Oklahoma and northern Texas.
Winds will increase today in response to an approaching upper level trough, and temps will warm to 5 to 10 degrees above normal. Mostly clear with some mid-high level clouds filtering into the region this evening with the onset of a cold front.
230 PM EDT Sun Oct 17 2021 Beautiful autumn afternoon in progress across the Ohio Valley as broad high pressure sits across the region. 18Z temps were in the 60s to around 70 in the lower Wabash Valley.
Good radiational cooling conditions should allow morning low temperatures to dip into the low to mid 40s for most locations. High temperatures on Monday will be a bit warmer than what we are expecting today, albeit still below normal.
VFR conditions are expected to prevail across the region through the remainder of this TAF period as high pressure remains in control. The northwest flow aloft will become more zonal by the end of the day today as an upper level trough begins to make its way westward over the northern Plains, progressing toward the Great Lakes by Monday evening.
High pressure building in from the northwest will provide dry and cool weather.
237 PM EDT Sun Oct 17 2021 Cool and dry high pressure will linger over our region into Monday then modify. A warming trend is then expected through mid week before another cold front with limited moisture crosses the area late in the week. The broad trough that was near the East Coast will slide well off the coast into Monday.
Another warm day is underway as high pressure remains in place over western Montana and central Idaho.
Otherwise, am expecting a sunny sky with high temperatures in the low to mid 70s. The ridge of high pressure aloft over the Rockies moves over the High Plains today and continues east over the plains states on Monday, ending up over the Mississippi valley area by Monday evening.
151 PM MDT Sun Oct 17 2021 High pressure will push east on Monday as a cutoff upper low approaches the region from the west, eventually moving into Wyoming by Monday night. Latest ensembles confirm the low tracking just a bit farther south.
After morning lows in the 40s for much of the area, temperatures have warmed into the lower 70s. Lows will range from the middle 40s to lower 50s for most locations or about 3 to 5 degrees warmer than last night. With the return of southerly flow, lows tomorrow night will be warmer, in the middle 50s to lower 60s.
Otherwise, dry weather is expected through mid week under building high pressure. Lake enhanced showers are expected to advance through the region into the evening, mainly N of PIT, with a crossing trough.
/Tonight through Monday Night/ Upper level pattern continues to show ridging across the central CONUS with a large trough starting to move into the Pacific Northwest today. Monday will see some slightly warmer temperatures than what we see today, as southerly flow will return to the area and will help to usher in some slightly warmer temperatures. Highs will range from the lower to upper 70s across the region under fairly clear skies.
318 PM EDT Sun Oct 17 2021 High pressure will prevail across the region most of this week.
Temperatures are running a few degrees warmer than yesterday's values, as H5 heights slowly rise from west to east. This results in low temperatures tonight in the lower 40s, and high temperatures Monday in the lower to middle 70s.
A H5 ridge in place across the Northern Plains will gradually shift east while a large trough arrives on the western U. Monday will see some increase in high level clouds as the ridge shifts east and the upper flow becomes southwest.
High pressure over the region will bring VFR conds through the TAF cycle.
1223 PM CDT Sun Oct 17 2021 An upper level trough was shifting east of the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley regions early this morning, with an upper level ridge over the Rockies. Warmer high temperatures are expected on Monday with the upper level ridge right over MO by this time, along with south-southwest surface winds, and continued full diurnal solar insolation.
224 PM CDT Sun Oct 17 2021 An upper-level ridge jaunts across the Northern Plains today providing clear skies and calm winds across our forecast area. dewpoint temperatures in the high 30s to low 40s will prevent dewpoint depressions decreasing to saturation outside of central WI.
255 PM EDT Sun Oct 17 2021 High pressure sprawling across the Tennessee and lower Mississippi Valleys combined with a dry atmosphere will provide us with clear skies and light winds tonight through tomorrow. The high will be weakening and the air mass moderating slightly, and low level thicknesses will be increasing, so tonight isn't expected to be quite as cold as this morning was. Monday morning lows should be in the lower to middle 40s, with the usual caveats for sheltered valleys, especially in the eastern half of Kentucky. Monday night upper ridging will be overhead behind a deep upper low diving southeast through the Canadian Maritimes.
221 PM CDT Sun Oct 17 2021 An upper level ridge currently over the area will move east of the area tonight. Upper level flow will slightly back to the southwest as a sharp long wave trough moves onshore on the west coast. This trough will close off on Monday as it moves across the Intermountain West region. As a result, this system will induce stronger lee troughing/cyclogenesis on Monday leading to breezy southerly winds and warmer temperatures.
216 PM EDT Sun Oct 17 2021 High pressure continues to build into the area, offering a taste of autumn as much cooler and drier air settles in through early this week.
Good radiational cooling conditions should allow morning low temperatures to dip into the low to mid 40s for most locations. High temperatures on Monday will be a bit warmer than what we are expecting today, albeit still below normal. (Monday night through next Sunday) Expect low level southerly flow and warmer conditions to return early this week. Highs will be in the lower to mid 80s.
253 PM MDT Sun Oct 17 2021 Mid to upper level moisture and cloud cover will increase tonight as the ridge moves east and the next trough comes on shore to the west. Overnight lows should be a few degrees warmer tonight coming off the warmer high and with scattered overnight clouds. The low lying areas will still see strong radiational cooling and inversions which break in the early morning. There will be an increasing southwesterly flow aloft tomorrow as the trough moves over the Great Basin. Temperatures should be a few degrees cooler than those today but still quite warm, in the 70s across the plains and 50s and 60s in the high country.
249 PM EDT Sun Oct 17 2021 The cold front is just barely through the area this afternoon with the showers over the coastal waters along the boundary about to exit the southern waters. Some scattered clouds linger over the southern zones, but clear to mostly clear conditions are in place elsewhere as cooler and drier air moves in on N/NE winds and high pressure builds.
High pressure begins to build back in at the surface in wake of the front permitting a breezy northerly to northeasterly flow to build tonight into Monday. The drier, relatively cooler air will allow temperatures over portions of inland Southwest Florida to dip into the lower 60s tonight. Most of the region, except for the Gulf coast, will stay in the lower to mid 80s on Monday thanks to the brisk northeasterly flow.
222 PM MDT Sun Oct 17 2021 Digging western CONUS upper trough is supporting downstream local ridging, with WAA ongoing. This trough will eventually settle into NW SD Monday affecting high temps some as flow will relax north of the boundary.
1248 PM EDT Sun Oct 17 2021 SE MI remains between a broad region of high pressure in the Plains and low pressure in eastern Canada. Southeast Michigan still immersed within deeper layer northwest flow defining the back end of a gradually recovery upper height field as the mean trough axis clears the great lakes. Deep layer stability held firm within confluent mid level northwest flow and general low level ridging ensures benign weather conditions Monday.
Looks like another quiet night in advance of the approaching upper trough. Relatively mild for this time of year with the warmer than normal airmass and increased mixing. One final mild day in the warm sector in advance of the approaching upper trough. The upper trough moves into central Wyoming by dawn, with its associated powerful cold front blasting west to east across our counties. Based on the deep and moist moisture profile, along with impressive 700-500 mb and 500-300 mb quasigeostrophic forcing, and the proposed track of the upper trough, believe that widespread rain and snow will develop by late evening with the snow occurring mainly west of a Laramie to Douglas line by late in the night.
129 PM PDT Sun Oct 17 2021 Increasing onshore flow spreading cooler and more humid air inland this afternoon. Fair and warmer weather follows for the remainder of the work week, with some coastal low clouds and fog during the nights and mornings. The onshore flow and an upper level trough moving east into the intermountain west have resulted in temperatures 5-15 degrees lower than at this time yesterday. Westerly winds will strengthen and become gusty through the mountain passes and into the deserts through Monday as a low pressure center moves inland across northern CA. It will be even cooler on Monday when highs will be some 10-15F below seasonal averages.
/22/ After a rather chilly start in the low to mid 40s, temperatures were warming nicely under sunny skies and a light wind. Temperatures were on track to top out a few degrees cooler than normal this afternoon; in the lower 70s. Temperatures will rebound this afternoon into the low 70s following a chilly start to the day this morning. Decent cooling will still be realized with lows in the low to upper 40s, but increasing cloud cover will hamper additional cooling.
314 PM CDT Sun Oct 17 2021 High pressure has led to sunny skies and light winds today, and its influence will continue into tonight. On Monday, an incoming upper-trough will be lowering heights, but 850mb temperatures will peak, to between 15-18 C (mean 18z NAEFS and ECMWF values) across the CWA.
240 PM MDT Sun Oct 17 2021 Expect increasing clouds tonight and a bit cooler temperatures on Monday as cold front moves through the region.
(This afternoon through Monday night) WV imagery shows an upper trough just offshore of the PacNW, which will make landfall this evening. This feature has nudged the ridge east into the central CONUS, increasing thicknesses a bit over West Texas and Southeast New Mexico for afternoon highs 4-5F above yesterday's. Monday, southwest flow aloft develops over the region as the trough digs into the central Rockies. Leeside troughing on the Front Range ahead of the system will increase southerly surface flow in the east, and westerlies over the higher terrain.
Cooler temperatures and some locally breezy conditions can be anticipated to start the work week as a system brushes by to our north. High pressure will bring a strong warming trend the second half of the week, with continued dry conditions.
127 PM CDT Sun Oct 17 2021 Clear skies and relatively warm temperatures prevail across the area this afternoon as an upper ridge moves overhead. On Monday, we will see increasingly strong south winds as the ridge pushes to our east. Temperatures may be a degree or two cooler than today, but highs should still reach the 70s.
1058 AM MDT Sun Oct 17 2021 Skies are clear over Colorado as the ridge axis moves overhead and we're warming up quickly this morning. Continue to expect highs in the mid to upper 70s across the plains and 50s and 60s in the high country. We'll continue our warming trend as the upper level ridge passes overhead, with all models showing about 4C of warming through 700 mb. That should push high temperatures about 7F warmer than yesterday, yielding highs in the mid to upper 70s across the plains and I-25 Corridor, 60s to lower 70s in the foothills, and 50s to mid 60s for the mountains. For tonight, the upper level ridge will shift east allowing a deeper southwest flow aloft to develop.
1212 PM CDT Sun Oct 17 2021 At 2 AM, a 1026 mb high pressure area centered over the Southern Plains was producing clear skies across the Upper Mississippi River Valley. High pressure will provide clear skies for both today and tonight.
Patchy fog will remain in the forecast for major water body locations overnight tonight due to the much warmer waters and chilly low forecast temperatures. Upper 30s are certainly not out of the question in our normally cooler valley locations in the northeast.
High pressure at the surface will maintain VFR conditions thru the period, with some passing high clouds across SE OK. A large surface anticyclone resides over the south central CONUS this morning. Highs yesterday were just a tad warmer than blended guidance (NBM), so for the update went with a blend of NBM probabilistic 50th and 75th %ile forecast, and close to EC MOS. Other than a few passing high clouds across southern Oklahoma this afternoon expect plenty of sunshine for your Sunday with afternoon temperatures ending up a few degrees warmer than yesterday and just slightly above normal for this time of year.
240 PM CDT Sun Oct 17 2021 High pressure is sprawled across the southern Plains early this afternoon and is centered in western Arkansas. Quiet and warmer weather through the short term.
SHORT TERM (Now through Monday Night): High pressure at the surface moving into the Mid-Atlantic is bringing a return of an easterly breeze this afternoon. Dry weather will also continue through the short term thanks to a weak H5 ridge axis centered over east Texas and the western Gulf of Mexico providing enough subsidence to keep rain chances out of the forecast.
Otherwise, dry weather is expected through mid week under building high pressure. Updated to expand chance/slight chance PoPs based on radar trends, as vorticity lobes in the upper trough promote isolated showers and sprinkles over much of the region.
Highs today are on track to reach the low 70s with light southerly winds. Sunny skies and a slightly stronger southerly flow are expected Monday and highs will be a little warmer than today, generally reaching the mid 70s.
High pressure building in from the west behind a strong cold front has continuously brought in cool, dry air via north to northwesterly flow.
As the upper short wave exits to the east later tonight, ridging will take place bringing drier mid and upper levels to the area. This will lead to a few lower clouds tonight through Monday, but skies will still be mostly clear for the most part due to the subsident ridging aloft. The onshore flow will become weak to moderate on Monday and will begin bringing warmer temps to the area with highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s. Monday night temps will also be warmer and more humid due to increasing dewpoints. A couple of models want to bring very light precipitation to the Coastal Bend and nearshore waters Monday, but the airmass will still be too dry with ridging aloft.
An upper level ridge was moving over the central CONUS today bringing clear skies to the entire central High Plains region. Lows tonight are expected to be into mi 40s, around or a few degrees above the warmer MAV guidance. An increasing surface pressure gradient in the lee of the Rockies will result in more widespread gusty south winds and warmer temperatures across western Kansas.
315 PM CDT Sun Oct 17 2021 (Issued 315 PM CDT Sun Oct 17 2021) Tonight and Monday: Main attention tonight is on the low temperatures and the potential for a frost in some spots. The highest probability for a more widespread frost looks to be in central Wisconsin, so have issued a Frost Advisory for Marquette and Green Lake counties. A little less confident in southwest Wisconsin with getting the frost conditions with the return southerly flow overnight as well as in eastern Wisconsin with the influence of the lake keeping things slightly warmer there.
220 PM EDT Sun Oct 17 2021 High pressure will build slowly east into the area through mid week. Substantial frost is not expected given the low dewpoints, but we'll keep an eye on humidity trends through the evening. Min temps again in the lower to mid 40s, with some upper 30s in the colder outlying/rural areas.
1201 PM CDT Sun Oct 17 2021 315 AM CDT Pleasant, breezy, and slightly warmer conditions to close out the weekend. A dome of high pressure has moved over the area which will keep our skies cloud-free through the rest of the weekend and throughout the day on Monday. These clear skies coupled with warmer temperatures aloft will promote slightly warmer temperatures at the surface with this afternoon's highs topping out in the mid-60s and tonight's lows in the low to mid-40s.
225 PM MDT Sun Oct 17 2021 Upper level ridging will transition more to a Rex Block pattern over the next couple days as an upper level Low from the Pacific tracks inland, but remains to the south. On the surface a cold front moves through Monday afternoon that will put an end to our recent bout of above normal temperatures. Unfortunately neither the front nor the upper level Low will give NE Montana much in the way of precipitation with the exception of the SE Zones which could see a couple isolated showers.
AC Chattanooga Airport, TN 45 70 47 73 50 / 0 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 43 69 45 72 48 / 0 0 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 43 69 45 71 48 / 0 0 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 38 66 40 70 43 / 0 0 0 0 0.
1102 AM MDT Sun Oct 17 2021 Upper ridge axis is crossing the Rockies, allowing for clear skies over much of the CONUS. The trough to affect our region in a few days is just offshore. Meanwhile, upper trough will develop a closed low Sunday as it moves ashore, and will approach the northern plains early this week.
Today through Tonight, An upper level ridge across the central Rockies early this morning will move east across Plains. An amplified upper level trough will move onshore across northern CA and OR. As the H5 ridge axis shifts east across the state of KS, along with weak southerly winds, will help afternoon highs to reach into the lower to mid 70s. Monday through Monday night, the upper trough over the western US will move east into the central Rockies Monday night.
1102 AM EDT Sun Oct 17 2021 An upper-level composite analysis this morning reveals a large- scale ridge extending northward from Mexico over the central/western United States, while a large-scale trough was analyzed from the northwestern Caribbean to eastern Canada. For this afternoon, a weakening cold front will decelerate and pivot southeastward over the southern Florida Peninsula and southern Gulf of Mexico, staying just north of the Florida Keys. A weakening cold front will pivot southeastward over the southern Gulf of Mexico and Florida Peninsula this afternoon and tonight. Meanwhile, a strong high pressure system will migrate eastward across the southeastern United States and adjacent coastal waters.
A substantially dry airmass ahead of stout ridging over the central Plains will maintain dry and clear conditions amid relatively light winds and generally seasonable temps through the period.
The biggest issue in this short term forecast will be the rather large diurnal range as increased radiational heating/cooling influence temps under the high pressure ridge.
Marginally warmer day Monday as the region remains in between the departing weekend thermal trough and approaching thermal ridging over the Midwest.
The forecast period begins with a large area of high pressure centered over the southeastern CONUS.
Gusty southwest winds and cooler temperatures arrive Monday, with another warming trend then developing later next the week. A weak trough moving over Arizona is spreading high clouds over the area. There are things the fall brings, shorter days and cooler temperatures, changing colors, falling leaves. A hint of what is to come arrives this afternoon, with southwest breezes strengthening over the higher terrain. Then, a deep upper low dives over the Sierra Crest tonight.
Highs today are on track to reach the low 70s with light southerly winds. Sunny skies and a slightly stronger southerly flow are expected Monday and highs will be a little warmer than today, generally reaching the mid 70s. /Issued 254 AM CDT Sun Oct 17 2021/ /Monday and beyond/ Ridging aloft will shift slowly and steadily east through the Plains while an upper low enters the western CONUS on its heels.
high clouds move into the area from the southwest after midnight ahead of an intensifying upper level low pressure area expected to reach the Nevada/California border by sunrise Monday morning. At the surface, a lee trough is expected allowing for south to southwest winds of 5 to 15 mph. Low temperatures are expected to be in the lower 30s to lower 40s. the upper level low is expected to move east into central Utah during the day then into southwest Wyoming overnight.
High pressure will begin to shift east over the Mississippi Valley tonight into tomorrow. This will enhance warmer southwest flow over the Central High Plains.