Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Little to no convection is expected in the area tomorrow afternoon as an upper level ridge begins to expand out of the Four Corners and into the plains. Rain chances all but disappear for the remainder of the work week as the center of the high pressure ridge near the four-corners flattens and broadens to encompass much of the southern half of the country. This readjustment of the upper level pattern will allow drier air to move in aloft along with warmer temperatures.
Looking towards Monday, an overnight cold frontal passage will bring temperatures down across the region to within a few degrees of normal. The general trend will be to shift moisture east and out of our CWA tonight as a Pacific upper trough comes inland.
515 PM MDT Sun Jul 9 2017 Latest upper air analysis shows the ridge centered over the Four Corners Region. A minor short wave trough in the northwest flow around the ridge over the Northern Plains has lead to some storm activity there. Over the Central High Plains closer to the ridge water vapor showed a dry air mass so there has been no storm activity. Meanwhile a cold front will approach the forecast area from the north, but will be pushed to the east prior to entering the forecast area.
849 PM CDT Sun Jul 9 2017 Little sensible weather to speak of this evening across the Tennessee Valley, due to broad, weak high pressure at the surface and very deep, very dry air aloft. 13") is near daily minimum or 10th percentile on the sounding climatology; observed surface dewpoints in the low-mid 60s are below normal but far from unprecedented. The forecast of clear skies and low temperatures in the mid 60s-- except for around 60 in normally-cooler eastern valleys--looks to be in good shape.
Temperatures are generally on track with lows expected in the lower to mid 70s.
Minimal temperatures should be in the low 70s. With the returned southerly flow Monday, some areas could see slightly higher maximum temperatures tomorrow than today though still in the low 90s.
1119 PM EDT Sun Jul 9 2017 High pressure builds in from the west to start the week.
Thus temperatures in the low to mid 90s around noon central have only climbed a few degrees, to the mid and upper 90s. Tonight, high pressure currently over Saskatchewan will drop into central and eastern ND. We utilized dewpoints on the lower side of guidance to derive minimum humidities on Monday and we are in the 20 to 25 percent range over the west and south central, instead of the 10 to 15 percent today over the far southwest. Will need to keep an eye on things as if we do not get the moisture return, we could see increased fire weather concerns in the far west as with the approaching thermal ridge, this area is expected to climb into the mid 90s, with breezy conditions in the afternoon.
Cooler temperatures and increased low level moisture are expected early this week, though gusty and erratic outflow winds should still be anticipated. The cooler temperatures and increased moisture will result in higher minimum relative humidity values and higher chances of wetting rains.
1024 PM MDT Sun Jul 9 2017 Upper ridge axis extends from Four Corners region to the northern Rockies. Mid/upper level moisture and weak disturbances rotating up and over the ridge across Wyoming have triggered isolated to scattered afternoon high-based convection. The other story has been the hot temperatures, especially across the high plains. The latest short range model guidance progs the upper ridge to the west to weaken as it shifts east across the Front Range and high plains. Monday's high temperatures will be somewhat cooler compared to today, with upper 80s-mid 90s.
913 PM EDT Sun Jul 9 2017 High pressure tonight. A high pressure system will provide another dry and cool night across the area. The upper trof loosens its grip over the area this week. This puts the area in the cross hairs for several disturbances to rotate though on the back side of the trof.
Fog dissipates around 13-14z for the return to vfr weather thanks to some high pressure and dry advection.
the higher temperatures will be in the interior areas. The low temperatures will continue to run in the 70's in the interior and Gulf coast, to low 80's along the Atlantic coast. High pressure to the northeast will keep the wind out of the east to southeast through the week.
946 PM EDT Sun Jul 9 2017 High pressure will persist across the area through Monday. This will allow high pressure at the surface to cross the region and eventually give way to a large Bermuda high off the coast.
644 PM CDT Sun Jul 9 2017 H5 analysis from this morning had a high located over southern Utah with a ridge extending north into the Yukon and north slope of Alaska. A closed low was located off the southern coast of Alaska. East of the ridge, a closed low was located over northern portions of Hudson Bay with a trough extending south into the Mid- Atlantic states and Carolinas. Across western and north central Nebraska, winds west of the trough took on more of a westerly component, while winds along and east of the trough were nearly calm to light southerly. Based on the guidance trends, I did go ahead and lower temps slightly from the inherited forecast, however, they were kept in the higher end of guidance, especially in the south where the forecast frontal position is uncertain.
1101 PM EDT Sun Jul 9 2017 More humid air will begin to make a return on Monday as high pressure slips off the eastern seaboard. Highs will be a tad warmer than today, returning to within a degree or two either side of normal for the second week of July.
The first round of storms may come later tonight as a storms develop near a warm front over southern Minnesota and travel southeast toward Lower Michigan.
812 PM EDT Sun Jul 9 2017 More humid air will begin to make a return on Monday as high pressure slips off the eastern seaboard. Highs will be a tad warmer than today, returning to within a degree or two either side of normal for the second week of July.
Temperatures are running afew degrees cooler than this time yesterday at most inland locations due to the influence of an upper level trough moving through aloft yielding a more westerly versus southwesterly flow for most locations. The exceptions are along portions of the coast that were under the marine layer yesterday and across Modoc County, where temperatures are 1-3 degrees warmer. Winds are becoming more gusty this afternoon into this evening due to the influence of this trough and, with low relative humidities, this a fire weather concern, particularly for the Ana Fire near Summer Lake.
1138 PM EDT Sun Jul 9 2017 More humid air will begin to make a return on Monday as high pressure slips off the eastern seaboard. Highs will be a tad warmer than today, returning to within a degree or two either side of normal for the second week of July.
The current forecast appears to be on track with a drier atmosphere and lower dewpoints, compliments of a weak northerly flow and higher pressure, allowing for an even cooler night.
The chances of showers and storms continue on Monday, with the highest chances of rain across northeast and east-central Wisconsin.
706 PM EDT Sun Jul 9 2017 More humid air will begin to make a return on Monday as high pressure slips off the eastern seaboard. Highs will be a tad warmer than today, returning to within a degree or two either side of normal for the second week of July.
A pleasant night is ahead weatherwise as high pressure spanning KY through north AL and MS has brought a drier air mass to the region.
728 PM EDT Sun Jul 9 2017 Departing high pressure will still manage to keep the weather quiet through most of Monday.
There was still some drier air evident in the lower levels.
High pressure over the florida peninsula will maintain a southerly flow across the area as a frontal system drops southward over southern Georgia.
The short term updates this morning mainly keeping pace with the temperature curve of the HRRR model, being slightly warmer through the I-70 corridor, not as hot near EHA/LBL. Models have even warmer temperatures heading into Monday and the entire area is likely to reach 100 degrees or warmer Monday afternoon.
A weak pocket of enhanced instability evident over northeast New Mexico along the eastern periphery of the upper high will drift toward the southwest in the clockwise flow around the upper high during the next 12-24 hours. Meanwhile, this evening's convection will continue to drift toward the south or southwest with the best coverage anticipated along/immediate east of the central mountain chain shifting to the lower Rio Grande Valley and SW quarter after 03Z. Afternoon storms have once again fired off over the higher terrain of New Mexico today, with valley locations favored more late in the afternoon and evening.
744 PM EDT Sun Jul 9 2017 High pressure tonight. A high pressure system will provide another dry and cool night across the area. The upper trof loosens its grip over the area this week. This puts the area in the cross hairs for several disturbances to rotate though on the back side of the trof.
115 PM EDT Mon Sep 25 2017 Very quiet pattern over the area, with an upper low away to our west in the lower Miss Valley and Hurricane Maria away to our east off the Atlantic.
Meanwhile the main upper level trough was over the US Rockies with the low center over western Wyoming. The upper level energy impulses continue moving northward today as the upper low lifts northeast into eastern Montana this afternoon, and the western Dakotas Monday night. Better chances of showers tonight over eastern portions of central North Dakota, namely from the James Valley into the Turtle Mountain area, with more substantive upper level impulses arriving as the low/trough lifts northeastward into the Dakotas.
231 PM CDT Mon Sep 25 2017 Upper ridge seeming to be having more of an influence on our weather today, as there is no convection developing just yet, despite development earlier in the day over the last couple of days. Upper trof and cold front over the wrn CONUS continues to be blocked by the ridge. Still appears that we will not get much from this trof/cold front in the way of rain, even as the trof pushes up and over the ridge later in the work week. The lack of rainfall with the cold front may lessen the longevity of the cooler airmass, as dry soils and dry air will likely heat back up more quickly.
SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday night): South Texas remains between the H5 ridge just offshore and the large-scale along the Rockies. As the ridge shifts east slightly late tonight, the leading edge of the trough will begin to push more moisture into the region aloft. Best chances for rainfall will be further inland closer to the trough, once the seabreeze gets moving. Increased cloud cover closer to the surface and increased cirrus aloft will hold temps down a couple degrees from today, but will still reach the low to mid 90s ahead of the advancing seabreeze.
345 PM CDT Mon Sep 25 2017 Upper low to propagate east from the northern high plains across the forecast area overnight and Tuesday. Model guidance indicating best potential across the remainder of the forecast area from 12-18z Tuesday with upper low passage. Will keep higher pops across the east closer to surface inverted trough. Rain should gradually diminish Tuesday night as upper low continues to propagate northeast.
235 PM CDT Mon Sep 25 2017 Little change the next 12 hours as a cold front slowly makes it way across the area. JPK Upper pattern will be transitioning from southwest to northwest flow mid-late this week as upper trough currently over western Canada digs southeastward into the eastern CONUS.
115 PM EDT Mon Sep 25 2017 High pressure will bring dry and warm weather through mid-week before the passage of a cold front heralds a return to seasonably-cool conditions. Otherwise, the region will remain in a generally-subsident ridging pattern, with strong insolation leading to afternoon temp maxima approaching 90F (given the pre-existing warm airmass evident in the 12Z PIT RAOB).
1251 PM CDT Mon Sep 25 2017 A cool and wet day in store for much of the area today, persisting into tonight, as remain situated between slow-moving upper trough over the Rockies, and strong upper ridge east of the Mississippi. Although a bit slower than previous runs, still seeing a good punch of mid-upper level drying move into the forecast area as the upper trough shifts east late tonight. This along with broad downglide on the isentropic surfaces and weak cold advection in the lower levels, should bring a gradual decrease in precipitation through the late night hours. The broad upper trough slides eastward through the Great Lakes through the mid-late week period, while a ridge builds over the western CONUS.
1122 AM MDT Mon Sep 25 2017 The longwave trough over the southwest U. Conditions will remain dry and cool at high pressure an rising heights and thicknesses will make little progress over the region. Clouds and showers will continue to rotate around the south side of the closed low over WY today, and these will affect the north-facing slopes of the eastern Uinta Mountains, and mid and hi cloud cover will continue to build back to the west over the Archuleta county area today. A Western Rex pattern looks to be well underway by mid-week with amplified ridging into the Pacific NW over-topping a closed low over the Desert Southwest.
218 PM EDT Mon Sep 25 2017 An upper level ridge will remain over the region through mid week. Much cooler air will settle into the region by the end of the week. Tonight into Tuesday the 500 mb ridge will finally be squeezed east as Hurricane Maria nudges north.
248 PM EDT Mon Sep 25 2017 High pressure over the eastern United States will continue to bring mainly warm and dry weather to the region through midweek, while Hurricane Maria stays just off the east coast.
Southwesterly flow aloft continues, although with the upper trough axis shifting eastward into WY, the best moisture plume is also a bit further to the east than last night. The chances for rain will increase overnight tonight as the main upper trough starts to pull into the western Plains.
244 PM CDT Mon Sep 25 2017 In the big picture, a strong upper low is rotating in the upper midwest moves off to the northeast. A new closed low is expected to develop in the desert southwest. Therefore, as the current cold front continues to slide to the southeast this afternoon and evening.
Mesoscale features ejecting off the higher terrain of Mexico will make specific focal points for convection difficult to define in terms of timing and amounts. The fact that the mcv's are tracking almost due east would suggest the heavy rain focal point could shift east with time and erode the ridging aloft that has models limiting higher rainfall total east of I-35 for now.
Warmer and drier conditions will exist across the area through midweek. The next upper low will develop over western Arizona Tuesday, then turn back to the north and impact much of southern and eastern Utah during the latter half of the week.
409 PM CDT Mon Sep 25 2017 Weak upper low is over the forecast area and is triggering a few showers and thunderstorms over the area.
A notably cooler air mass will then build into the region for the latter half of the week.
A cold front will slip south into the northern Permian Basin Tuesday, but move very slowly south.
353 PM CDT Mon Sep 25 2017 A cold front will progress slowly east across the area late tonight and Tuesday.
525 PM EDT Mon Sep 25 2017 High pressure will bring dry and warm weather through mid-week before the passage of a cold front heralds a return to seasonably-cool conditions. Upper ridging on the nrn side of Hurricane Maria will maintain broad subsidence over the region, leading to dry mid levels and only passing cirrus. After another warm day on Wed, this front will make a swd push Wed evening and help escort the hurricane out to sea, but will also serve to scour out the low-level warmth and moisture from the area. Given a more-realistic dewpoint in the low-mid 60s, instability is more meager, so PoPs with the frontal passage were reduced from the default model blend values. High pressure returns on Thu with a marked cooldown expected.
Upper level low will continue to work across SE Montana and into the Dakotas tonight. Will see warmer and dry conditions on Tuesday, with downslope west/northwest winds spreading across the area.
1128 AM MDT Mon Sep 25 2017 Overnight GOES-R water vapor loop showed the upper low spinning over western WY, with a trough axis extending to the Desert Southwest. Surface front from the western lake Superior through central IA/KS to a low pressure center over northeast NM has made slow eastward progress, with scattered elevated convection spreading north across the northern and central Great Plains.
/issued 957 AM EDT Mon Sep 25 2017/ An upper low over the MS/AL coastline is producing just enough instability to produce some low/mid cloudiness over the west coast of Florida this morning. Light east to northeast flow will become more northerly as high pressure lifts northwest of the region.
240 PM MDT Mon Sep 25 2017 Water vapor shows upper low over central WY, with a deep moisture plume through the Plains, including our south central SD zones. Upper low is then expected to shift into western ND overnight, with showers coming to an end and clouds eroding in our western/southwestern zones. Dry and warmer weather then expected the remainder of the work week with weak ridging aloft. An upper low over the Desert Southwest is then expected to lift northeast and get picked up by the next upper trof spreading into the Pacific Northwest.
336 PM MDT Mon Sep 25 2017 Upper low over Wyoming will push northeast into North Dakota overnight, with the main upper trough hanging back over the Great Basin and down towards Baja keeping southwesterly flow aloft through Tuesday. A few stronger showers and even a thunderstorm possible may drift off the higher terrain over the Palmer Divide area earlier this evening. This should keep temperatures moderated from hitting freezing over the plains - have opted not to issue any sort of highlight. Should see more sun as well as slight warm advection aloft, so temperatures will be about 7-10 degrees F warmer.
251 PM EDT Mon Sep 25 2017 High pressure will bring dry and warm weather through mid-week before the passage of a cold front heralds a return to seasonably-cool conditions. Upper ridging on the nrn side of Hurricane Maria will maintain broad subsidence over the region, leading to dry mid levels and only passing cirrus. After another warm day on Wed, this front will make a swd push Wed evening and help escort the hurricane out to sea, but will also serve to scour out the low-level warmth and moisture from the area. Given a more-realistic dewpoint in the low-mid 60s, instability is more meager, so PoPs with the frontal passage were reduced from the default model blend values. High pressure returns on Thu with a marked cooldown expected.
Weak surface ridging to our north and a weak upper level low aloft of the southeast will make for a fairly quiet afternoon and evening.
351 PM CDT Mon Sep 25 2017 Just east of the thicker cloud shield over western Oklahoma and north Texas, weak instability has developed where temperatures have warmed into the lower/mid 80s. As a cold front moves across Oklahoma and western north Texas tonight into Tuesday, the axis of better rain chances will gradually shift to the south and east.
319 PM CDT Mon Sep 25 2017 The initial closed low currently near the Wyoming/Montana border will flee to Canada tonight. However, another closed low will develop near Las Vegas, NV tomorrow. As the low cuts off on Tuesday, a weak Rex block will develop which will continue to pump moisture into the area. This will occur as additional jet level energy will be diving down on the upwind side of the long wave trough. These stronger jet level winds will emerge on the downwind side of the trough axis on Tuesday. A cold front will slowly move through the region on Tuesday which will be the main player in precipitation chances over the next 24 hours or so.
325 PM CDT Mon Sep 25 2017 WV imagery shows the upper trough has moved NE over the past 24 hours, and is now centered over SE MT. This is still scheduled to move into Canada by 00Z Wed, at which time a secondary trough will be taking its place over srn NV. Of more immediate concern is a cold front that has just entered the NW Texas Panhandle. Ensembles indicate anomalous PWATs of 2 std devs or better running just left of central Texas, up thru the Panhandle, coincident w/a low-lvl theta-e ridge, all of which should help maximize rainfall potential efficiency.
The upper level high pressure ridge is slowly losing control of our weather locally.
147 PM MDT Mon Sep 25 2017 Upper low is slowly lifting ne across the area. Could see a few of the high spots obscured in low clouds/fog too. One other concern is freezing temperatures east of the divide. Will issue a sps for low lying freezing temps. Debated a freeze watch or warning but we've had several episodes already around freezing so will wait for the killing freeze yet.
259 PM EDT Mon Sep 25 2017 High pressure will hold over the region tonight and will shift east on Tuesday.
Heading into this afternoon and evening, I expect coverage of rain to increase once again as upper level trough starts to move through the area.
/EC/ Tonight and Tuesday: Continued warmer than normal and with the exception of our northeast, low chances of mainly afternoon and early evening convection is expected through the period. Mid afternoon surface analysis had a ridge nosing into our CWA from the northeast. /22/ A mid level ridge will begin to build into the region on Tuesday night as the weak upper low that has been partly responsible for the increased moisture values over our region continues to weaken and eject to the SE.
Synoptic Setup: a large trough runs from the western Dakotas through Manitoba. A broad weak ridge resides over British Columbia and the high Plains of Alberta. The ridge to the west is attempting to push dry air near the surface inward but the clash of these two airmasses has generated a stall and therefore only the western zones may be clear with lows bottoming out overnight. Tuesday: Ridge will begin to win out and should clear out most of the eastern zones as well.
106 PM EDT Mon Sep 25 2017 Warm high pressure remains over the region today and tonight. A weak cold front will cross northern Maine Tuesday then stall.
On the synoptic scale the long wave trough continues to slowly move toward the MO Valley with primary short waves across northern CO and another currently less active wave advancing through the base in AZ. Extended areas of mid level kinematic forcing above stronger frontogenetical response continue to produce widespread showers and storms from the high Plains into the Upper MS Valley.
325 PM EDT Mon Sep 25 2017 High pressure over the Eastern Great Lakes today will weaken and shift east Tuesday.
It will be the result of the ejecting 500mb low over WY, with the trough extending all the way down into Mexico.
110 PM MDT Mon Sep 25 2017 Main forecast issues will be how long to keep the rain chances going and temperatures, especially the lows. Slow moving cold front looks like it has finally cleared the forecast area.
1152 AM MDT Mon Sep 25 2017 Temperatures have risen above freezing in the San Luis Valley. Upper level trough continues its slow drift through the Rockies today, with next wave of showers and thunderstorms lifting northward through the eastern plains early this morning. Overall, basically below seasonal temperatures in combination with unsettled meteorological conditions at times expected this week with warmer temperatures then anticipated by this weekend.