Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
THE MAIN FOCUS INTO TONIGHT IS ON A COLD FRONT THAT STALLS OUT OVER THE REGION AND WHEN/IF WE WILL GET RAIN SHOWERS/CONVECTION AHEAD OF IT. THIS COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL IOWA WHICH IS JUST UPSTREAM FROM AN ELONGATED MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IR/RAP ANALYSIS. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD FEATURE SOME RAIN SHOWERS/STORMS AS IT COMES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING ALONG WITH THE MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH.
Additional convergence near the surface will exist in vicinity of a trough axis extending southward from the frontal boundary southward through southeast Colorado. Lows can be expected down into the 60s(F) across much of southwest and central Kansas with the lower 70s(F) still possible in south central Kansas. Precipitation should be exiting western Kansas Tuesday night as the cold front sweeps through.
355 AM EDT MON AUG 17 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK.
WITH A GENERAL WEAKNESS/INVERTED TROUGH AXIS DOMINATING THE UPPER LEVELS OVER THE CNTRL GULF STATES WHILE HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC BASIN. WITH HIGHS MORE IN THE LOWER/MID 80S VERSUS TYPICAL HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S/NEAR 90F. THE LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE CONTINUING TO HINT AT A FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT OUT OF THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS PUSHING EWD INTO THE MIDWEST/OH VALLEY AREAS WED INTO THU. IT MAY AT LEAST LOWER POPS MORE INTO THE ISO/SCT CAT AS WEAK RIDGING ALOFT REPLACES THE GENERAL TROUGH AXIS OVER THE CNTRL GULF STATES. A LARGE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO EXTEND ACROSS THE REGION. SEVERAL VORT MAXES WILL SPIN ARND THIS UPPER LOW AND MOVE ACROSS THE TN VALLEY.
624 AM EDT MON AUG 17 2015 HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY SLIDES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TODAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS FROM THE PLAINS STATES INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY MID-WEEK. A MID/UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE REGION TODAY. 850MB TEMPERATURES INCREASE TO 18-19C AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD. THE WILL SUPPORT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 90S INLAND. A VIGOROUS UPPER TROUGH WILL DIVE INTO THE NRN PLAINS TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE RIDGE AXIS PUSHING OFFSHORE TUESDAY. THE REMNANTS OF AN ELONGATED MID/UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH NEWD THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW/MID 80S OVER THE PIEDMONT.
BILLINGS WRIGHT TODAY - TONIGHT: THE HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE HRRR AND THE HIGHER RESOLUTION NAM12 STRUGGLE TO SHOW MUCH CONVECTION PERSISTING ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE DAY.
319 AM CDT MON AUG 17 2015 WATER VAPOR AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAKNESS IN THE ATMOSPHERE IN THE FORM OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/MOIST SHEAR AXIS EXTENDING FROM DEEP SOUTH TEXAS TO THE OHIO VALLEY. AS A DISTURBANCE MOVING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS PUSHING INTO THE NORTHWEST GULF. INSTABILITY SHOULD BE KEPT ON THE LOW SIDE.
602 AM EDT MON AUG 17 2015 A STRONG UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST TODAY. BUT THIS WILL SOON COME TO AN END AS THE HIGH/RIDGE SLIPS OFF TO OUR EAST AND AN INCREASINGLY MOIST SW FLOW DEVELOPS. THE SKIES REMAIN CLEAR TO SCATTERED UNDER THE HIGH. THIN CIRRUS CLOUDS STREAMING IN FROM THE NE AS THE RIDGE LINE AT JET STREAM LEVEL IS ACTUALLY NORTH OF THE REGION. AS THE HIGH SLIPS EAST AND WE WILL START TO SEE A RETURN FLOW FROM THE SW DEVELOP. I ALSO PUT A MENTION IN FOR THE SOUTHERN LAURELS WHERE HEATING OF THE HIGH TERRAIN COULD TRIGGER A STORM.
A 587MB UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER KENTUCKY HAS CREATED ENOUGH ENERGY IN THE ATMOSPHERE THAT AFTERNOON HEATING AND LIFT HAS PROMPTED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA. THIS LOW IS MORE CENTERED ACROSS WESTERN KY AND TN. A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN MOVING SE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. BUT THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER WESTERN KY WILL SHIFT EASTWARD. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP AND DEEPEN OVER LAKE SUPERIOR.
313 AM CDT MON AUG 17 2015 QUIETER SHORT TERM WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH A COOLER /AND EVENTUALLY DRIER/ POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS SETTLING IN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATER ON THIS MORNING /CERTAINLY BY THE AFTERNOON/. THE COLD FRONT STRETCHES FROM EAST CENTRAL NE. THE CLOUD COVER SHOULD BE SLOWER TO CLEAR AND WILL KEEP AFTERNOON TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. SOME SUBTLE MODEL DIFFERENCES ARE NOTED IN THE SMALL SCALE FEATURES BUT OVERALL THE MAIN CONCERNS ARE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A DRY SLOT TUESDAY NIGHT AND THE SPECIFIC PATH OF THE SFC/UPPER LOW TRACK ONCE IT IS FULLY DEVELOPED.
351 AM CDT MON AUG 17 2015 THE FORECAST CHALLENGES WILL BE ONGOING CONVECTION WITH A PRE- FRONTAL TROF AND SLOW MOVING FRONT AND THE NEXT STRONGER WAVE THAT WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS FOR THE REGION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THE H5 MAP HAD A BROAD TROF FROM CANADA INTO THE NORTHERN U. AND THE RIDGE WAS OVER THE EASTERN U. THE PRE-FRONTAL TROF WAS SOUTH OF LINCOLN WITH THE COLD FRONT SOUTH OF SIOUX CITY. THE LOW LEVEL FORCING WAS STRONGER IN THESE AREAS. HOWEVER THIS LOW LEVEL FORCING INCREASES TONIGHT.
637 AM EDT MON AUG 17 2015 A WARM RIDGE IN THE ATMOSPHERE WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S TODAY.
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES LOW OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO WITH COLD FRONT DROPPING THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. COOL HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SLIDE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BRINGING REFRESHING TEMPERATURES AFTER A HOT DAY YESTERDAY.
214 AM EDT MON AUG 17 2015 A WARM RIDGE IN THE ATMOSPHERE WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S TODAY.
454 AM EDT MON AUG 17 2015 A WARM RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH TONIGHT AND THEN STALL ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY.
241 AM CDT MON AUG 17 2015 As synoptic scale upper low lifts north and east today, more plentiful moisture will work in from the south and east.
AS A MID TO UPPER TROUGH TRAVERSES THE CENTRAL CONUS. EXPECT THE HIGHEST COVERAGE TO SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHEASTERN OK NEAR SUNRISE TUES. TEMPS THROUGH TUES WILL REMAIN NEAR OR JUST BELOW AVG AHEAD OF THE HIGHLY ANTICIPATED COLD FRONT.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK.
A LARGE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO EXTEND ACROSS THE REGION. SEVERAL VORT MAXES WILL SPIN ARND THIS UPPER LOW AND MOVE ACROSS THE TN VALLEY.
/issued 245 PM CDT SUN AUG 16 2015/ WV imagery shows the upper ridge has migrated a little further west over the past 24 hrs, and is now centered over SoCal/SW AZ. Convection that developed over eastern NM last night developed SW around the ridge and into SE NM, w/isolated activity ongoing. Sfc flow has veering from E to SE over the past 24 hrs, and return/upslope flow will continue to promote development over the higher wrn terrain, where richer theta-e remains. Although the ridge is forecast to move a little further west over the next 24 hours, and off the CA coast by 12Z Tuesday in response to a trough digging into the upper Midwest, thicknesses are still on tap to increase slightly over the next couple of days, approaching or exceeding triple digits again most areas by Tuesday afternoon.
Additional convergence near the surface will exist in vicinity of a trough axis extending southward from the frontal boundary southward through southeast Colorado. Lows can be expected down into the 60s(F) across much of southwest and central Kansas with the lower 70s(F) still possible in south central Kansas. Thunderstorms will be possible again Tuesday as medium range models indicate a strong upper level trough digging southeast across the Northern Rockies, then turning eastward into South Dakota and Nebraska. As this more significant system kicks out into the Central and Northern Plains, it will send a strong attendant cold front southeastward into western Kansas Tuesday afternoon providing the focus for thunderstorm development across central and portions of western Kansas.
A 700MB WARM FRONT LOCATED SOMEWHERE BETWEEN NORTH PLATTE AND RAPID CITY WILL BE LIFTED NORTH TODAY AND TONIGHT AND BE THE FORCING MECHANISM FOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1/2 TO 1 INCH. THE BEST FORCING DEVELOPS LATE TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW FORMS OVER SD. THE GEM REG SEEMED THE MOST REALISTIC CARRYING THE HIGHEST QPF NORTH OF NEBRASKA HIGHWAY 2 BUT STILL WAS PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN CENTERS OVER SWRN NEB. AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY PROVIDING FOR SHOWERS AND THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
211 AM MDT MON AUG 17 2015 UPPER FLOW WILL CONTINUE OUT OF THE WEST NORTHWEST AHEAD OF A TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TUESDAY. BY TUESDAY NIGHT THE MAIN UPPER LOW CENTER WILL BE OVER EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA WITH NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
AN UPPER LOW WILL MEANDER AROUND THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY THROUGH MONDAY.
THE UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST AND RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST.
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE HIGHEST COVERAGE WOULD BE DOWN ACROSS THE SOUTH. FOR TONIGHT, CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DIE OUT AFTER SUNSET AND TEMPEATURES WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 60S TO THE LOWER 70S. BY LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY, THE UPPER LOW OVER MISSOURI WILL DRIFT BACK TO THE NORTHEAST AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. A POCKET OF COOLER AIR ALOFT WILL DRIFT INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY.
358 AM EDT MON AUG 17 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE THROUGH MIDWEEK.
A NOTABLE COLD FRONT WILL BRING SOME UNSEASONABLY COOL WEATHER FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL WILL PUSH THROUGH THE PANHANDLES LIKELY BY SOMETIME TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES BY LATE IN THE WEEK. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY COOLING TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO.
A TROUGH GRAZING NORTHEAST UTAH WILL SEND A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. MOISTURE HAS BEEN RELEGATED TO SOUTHEAST UTAH WHERE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FIRING UP NEAR THE GREEN RIVER JUST WEST OF MOAB ALONG WHAT IS LEFT OF THE OLD COLD FRONT. EXPECT VERY ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS INITIATING OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN. ALLOWING A TROUGH CURRENTLY DROPPING INTO WASHINGTON FROM SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA TO GRAZE NORTHEAST UTAH LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TOMORROW. THIS TROUGH WILL PUSH ANOTHER DRY COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. BEHIND THE TROUGH.
117 AM EDT MON AUG 17 2015 HAZY, WARM AND HUMID LATE SUMMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION FOR MOST OF THE COMING WEEK AS DEEP LAYER HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION.
THERE IS A CHANCE OF SOME SNOW AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF OUR MOUNTAINS.
Strengthening northwesterly flow aloft will bring a backdoor cold front through the area Tuesday night. bringing a drier low-level airmass and cooler temperatures through the end of the week. The upper low over the southeastern U. will get kicked east over the weekend and the next longwave trof moves across the western states.
412 AM EDT TUE SEP 29 2015 THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW A COLD FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL SLOWLY CROSS INDIANA FROM TODAY INTO TONIGHT. THE HOOSIER STATE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ON THE EAST SIDE OF A VERY LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES DEEP INTO CANADA.
BUT HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING SOUTHEAST AND WILL FINALLY PUSH THE CLOUDS AND RAIN TO THE SOUTH THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL ADVANCE INTO NORTHERN MN TODAY TO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. WITH SOME FREEZING TEMPERATURES ALSO POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 53. THE SPRAWLING CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO MN WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
A surface cold front extending from extreme southeast Nebraska through north central Kansas to east central Colorado will continue its push south this morning. There is high confidence that this low stratus and much cooler air will spread south fairly quickly this morning without much inhibition. The high temperature for the day will be reached at that point, with a slow decline through the remainder of the afternoon on 15 to 20mph northeast winds. See no reason to discount this, as history has shown that every model struggles with these shallow pushes of cold air from the north down the High Plains. The continued upslope component to the lower tropospheric flow pattern will aid in expanding the stratus cover across western Kansas.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS WILL START TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD TODAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STARTS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. THERE IS STILL A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR AN ISOLATED STORM IN OUR FAR EASTERN COUNTIES ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER TROUGH. /ISSUED 330 PM CDT MON SEP 28 2015/ SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND EXTREME EASTERN ZONES TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO ROTATE ACROSS THE UPPER TEXAS COAST. THE LOW IS PROGGED TO LIFT INTO LOUISIANA ON TUESDAY AND BECOME ABSORBED INTO A DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TUESDAY NIGHT.
149 AM EDT TUE SEP 29 2015 AVIATION A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
Most valley locations will start off pretty chilly around the freezing mark. Expect one more chilly night to near freezing in the valleys tonight. A trough of low pressure off the west coast will usher in clouds and possibly a few showers in central Idaho and Southwest Montana by afternoon into the evening hours.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES DURING THE PERIOD.
200 AM MST TUE SEP 29 2015 VERY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL SUPPORT WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.
SOME COOLING WILL OCCUR LATE WEEK AS A WEAK TROF PASSES OVERHEAD BUT NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. THE NEARLY STATIONARY UPPER TROF REMAINS JUST OFF SHORE.
UPPER HEIGHTS WILL BUILD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS IN RESPONSE TO A DIGGING TROUGH POSITIONED OFF OF THE US WEST COAST. BROAD SWATH OF MOISTURE NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY POSITIONED OUT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. THE MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH THE ABOVE MENTIONED TROUGH AS IT ADVANCES ACROSS THE REGION IN THE LATE WED-SAT TIME FRAME TO PROVIDE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS. OPERATIONAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THIS TROUGH.
BEST ESTIMATE OF THE HIGHEST-IMPACT TIMING IS 09-13Z.
AS THE TROUGH AXIS MOVE INTO AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN WITH CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY LEADING TO ADDITIONAL FOCUS OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A STORM OR TWO. NOTICEABLY COOLER TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD. ONLY AREAS FOR PARTS OF METRO DETROIT SOUTHWARD WILL HOLD IN THE LOWER 50S. BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL BE ESTABLISHED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S STILL APPEARS DOABLE.
ALONG THE WARM FRONT. OUT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVE TROUGH TRAVERSE THE AREA ON WED. MUCH WARMER AFTERNOON TEMPS EXPECTED IN THE UPPER 80S. UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL DIG SOUTH ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS.
637 AM EDT TUE SEP 29 2015 SOLID 8-10KFT FOOT DECK WILL PERSIST WITH LOWER CIGS ALSO EXPANDING AS COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH AREA. AS THE TROUGH AXIS MOVE INTO AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN WITH CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY LEADING TO ADDITIONAL FOCUS OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A STORM OR TWO. NOTICEABLY COOLER TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD. ONLY AREAS FOR PARTS OF METRO DETROIT SOUTHWARD WILL HOLD IN THE LOWER 50S. BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL BE ESTABLISHED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S STILL APPEARS DOABLE.
UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM NY TO THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA DEEPENS AS IT SLOWLY ADVANCES EASTWARD THROUGH FRI. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AHEAD OF THE TROUGH START OUT BETWEEN 2 AND 2.
309 AM EDT TUE SEP 29 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH TODAY AND PUSH ACROSS THE STATE TONIGHT. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG THE COAST WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL PROVIDE FOCUS FOR ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE STREAMING NORTH AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. STRONG SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS FRONT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEMS TO THE NORTH IN CANADA AND TO THE EAST IN THE ATLANTIC WILL PROVIDE LIFT AND ENHANCE RAINFALL ALONG, AND JUST NORTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
347 AM EDT TUE SEP 29 2015 A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY AND CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT.
AFTER A WARMER MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE POTENTIAL FOR COOLER AND WETTER WEATHER WILL HINGE LARGELY ON THE INTERACTION OF A COMPLEX PATTERN OF UPPER-LEVEL FEATURES.
331 AM CDT TUE SEP 29 2015 COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED SOUTH OF CWA. BEHIND BOUNDARY TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES IN. HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES NEAR GOING WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES IN THE SOUTH. UPPER FLOW FOR MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK WILL SEE TROFINESS IN THE EAST WITH RIDGING ACROSS THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST.
WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS THE THERMAL TROUGH LINGERS INLAND WEST OF THE CASCADES. THE SHORT TERM FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH THE RIDGE TO SHIFT EAST TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS UPSTREAM TROUGH APPROACHES THE COAST. THE TROUGH WILL HELP TO DRIVE A TROUGH OR A DRY COLD FRONT INLAND ON WEDNESDAY.
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WITH PW VALUES CLIMBING UP INTO THE 1. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PRESENTLY ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN GULF WILL EJECT TO THE EAST AND PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. MODELS INDICATE THAT THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FAIRLY QUICKLY ON WEDNESDAY WITH POPS DECREASING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY. A TROUGH WILL BE DIVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE MID-MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY INTO THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY.
655 AM EDT TUE SEP 29 2015 COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A CLASSIC EARLY FALL SETUP INVOLVING TROPICAL MOISTURE MERGING WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER TROF TODAY/TONIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL TRACK NE FROM THE MS DELTA REGION TODAY. OPENING UP INTO A WAVE BEFORE MERGING WITH THE APPROACHING TROF TONIGHT. ALL OF THIS WILL RESULT IN COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE BEING ADVECTED IN FOR THE DYNAMICS WITH THE UPPER TROF TO ACT ON WITH SHOWERS OVERSPREADING THE AREA TODAY. 75 INCHES OVER THE LOWLANDS AND MOUNTAINS WITH POCKETS OF 2 INCHES A GOOD BET OVER THE N MOUNTAINS AND N LOWLANDS.
COVERAGE SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT LESS TODAY AS THE TROUGH AXIS WILL BE EAST OF THE CWA. A FEW SHWRS OR TSTMS MAY LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY SE OF A LINE FROM KLFK TO KMLU BUT RAIN CHANCES SHOULD QUICKLY COME TO AN END BY LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS EAST INTO THE SRN PLAINS.
THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A QUIET AUTUMN DAY AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR SETTLES INTO THE REGION. WITH THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TRAJECTORY FROM UPSTREAM DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER-MID 30S IN CENTRAL/NORTHERN MN.
WITH THE CU FIELD HAVING SCATTERED OUT AS OF LATE EVENING N OF THE CLOSED LOW OVER SE TX. SCT CONVECTION MAY REDEVELOP NEAR THE CLOSED LOW CENTER OVER NCNTRL/NE LA BY MIDMORNING.
WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF THE LOWER KEYS. AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED IN THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO.
245 AM CDT TUE SEP 29 2015 The cold front is beginning to move into northern Missouri early this morning. So have the highest PoPs across northern Missouri for this morning and then taper them further south later in the day. The other story with this front will be the much cooler air settling southward. And in our south, where there should still be some good heating, highs look to climb into the lower 80s. The cooler weather looks to stay with us through the rest of the forecast, being reinforced by high pressure in the Great Lakes and east northeasterly surface flow.
306 AM EDT TUE SEP 29 2015 COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A CLASSIC EARLY FALL SETUP INVOLVING TROPICAL MOISTURE MERGING WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER TROF TODAY/TONIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL TRACK NE FROM THE MS DELTA REGION TODAY. OPENING UP INTO A WAVE BEFORE MERGING WITH THE APPROACHING TROF TONIGHT. ALL OF THIS WILL RESULT IN COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE BEING ADVECTED IN FOR THE DYNAMICS WITH THE UPPER TROF TO ACT ON WITH SHOWERS OVERSPREADING THE AREA TODAY. 75 INCHES OVER THE LOWLANDS AND MOUNTAINS WITH POCKETS OF 2 INCHES A GOOD BET OVER THE N MOUNTAINS AND N LOWLANDS.
651 AM EDT TUE SEP 29 2015 IT WILL FINALLY START TO FEEL LIKE FALL LATER TODAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION AND COOLER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND IT. DRIER AND COOLER AIR CAN BE EXPECTED TONIGHT. WILL STILL SEE TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL TODAY DUE TO VERY WARM START AND FRONTAL TIMING BUT COOLER AIR ARRIVES BY TONIGHT. NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL CANADA TODAY WITH SHORT WAVE TROUGH INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL DRIVE A WEAKENING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AND MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL FOLLOW TONIGHT.
547 AM CDT TUE SEP 29 2015 The cold front is beginning to move into northern Missouri early this morning. So have the highest PoPs across northern Missouri for this morning and then taper them further south later in the day. The other story with this front will be the much cooler air settling southward. And in our south, where there should still be some good heating, highs look to climb into the lower 80s. The cooler weather looks to stay with us through the rest of the forecast, being reinforced by high pressure in the Great Lakes and east northeasterly surface flow.
PLUME IS BEING SQUEEZED BETWEEN DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND PERSISTENT UPPER LOW OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN US COAST. AN AMPLIFYING EAST-COAST TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BECOME DOMINANT DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.
AND ANTICIPATE THAT MUCH OF MY MINNESOTA COUNTIES WILL DROP INTO THE LOW TO MIDDLE 30S. A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING INTO THE AREA. THE RIDGE BUILDS FARTHER OVER THE AREA TODAY. WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER ALOFT. WITH 850MB TEMPS GENERALLY A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN THIS MORNING I EXPECT ANOTHER GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT AND WE SHOULD BE ONCE AGAIN DIPPING BELOW FREEZING IN MANY LOCATIONS.
659 AM EDT TUE SEP 29 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TODAY. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL WORK THROUGH THE FA TODAY. WITH EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER IN PLACE TODAY AND WITH THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE REGION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM.
The mid-level ridge will build east across the southern Plains during this time, with 500 mb heights rising a few dekameters over the next 24 hours. Johnson (Wed-Fri) Sunny and dry weather to continue Wed-Fri as the tenacious upper level high pressure centered over northern Mexico and the Desert Southwest extends into West Central Texas.
658 AM EDT TUE SEP 29 2015 THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW A COLD FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL SLOWLY CROSS INDIANA FROM TODAY INTO TONIGHT. THE HOOSIER STATE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ON THE EAST SIDE OF A VERY LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES DEEP INTO CANADA.
308 AM CDT TUE SEP 29 2015 A COLD FRONT IS SLOWLY MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH THE CWA AS OF 2 AM. THE PRESENCE OF THE LOW IN CENTRAL IOWA HAS HELD OFF ANY TRUE CAA OVER NORTHEAST IOWA THUS FAR. THE LOW WILL HAVE SPREAD EAST OF THE CWA.
357 AM CDT TUE SEP 29 2015 SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS SAGGED SOUTH INTO NORTHERN KANSAS. A RIDGE IS ANCHORED ACROSS THE FAR SW CONUS AND BAJA MEXICO. A BROAD TROUGH IS ANALYZED ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS. TO SLIGHT NORTHWESTERLY FLOW EXISTS FOR THE HIGH PLAINS. A COUPLE OF DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS. TONIGHT THE LOW MOVING WAVE WILL STILL BRING A POSSIBILITY FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLD T. DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR WILL BE CIRCULATING WEST OFF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.
AND THEN BECOME MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS THE LOW FILLS AND DRIER MIDLEVEL AIR OVERTAKES THE REGION. SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER WITH THE CLOSED LOW AND NORTHEASTERLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW SHOULD KEEP HIGHS VERY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. MOISTURE WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR USHERS IN.