Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Cold front will be a gradual windshift, hitting KMAF ~ 05Z. A weak cold front will usher in slightly cooler temperatures tomorrow as highs decrease around 5-10 degrees from today.
An approaching trough will move through Idaho and northern Nevada tomorrow afternoon, resulting in southwesterly flow.
The cold front has caught up with most of the formerly prefrontal showers/thunderstorms across south-central, central, into northeast Oklahoma. A quickly-moving cold front was located approximately from KBKN to KJWG to KHBR and KLTS at 2330Z, and will be east/southeast of KPNC, KOUN, and KSPS by about 0300Z. /issued 401 PM CST Tue Nov 22 2016/ A cold front continues to progress southeastward across northwest Oklahoma this afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop as the cold front intersects low to mid 60Fs dew points across southeast Oklahoma. Cooler weather is expected tomorrow behind the cold front.
1029 PM EST Tue Nov 22 2016 High pressure will build east over the region tonight and Wednesday.
Only mid to high clouds and a few stray showers this afternoon as the last bit of the upper ridge slides east out of the region. A few of the radar echoes just outside of the area were reported to produce sleet, which may be caused by the wide dewpoint depression at many sites leading to a wet bulb temperature below 32F in the low levels. Other than that, low level moisture will be on the rise over the next 24 hours as the upper trough moves eastward from the Great Plains. This may be largely in part to the very dry surface air and some of the precip may go to saturating the low levels before precip can really get going.
735 PM EST Tue Nov 22 2016 High pressure will build over the region tonight before shifting offshore Wednesday. A cold front will cross the area late Wednesday night into Thanksgiving.
606 PM EST Tue Nov 22 2016 High pressure over the Great lakes will slide east and move off the East coast Wednesday.
546 PM CST Tue Nov 22 2016 Early afternoon surface map showing the low center with our storm system over central Kansas, with a warm front arcing into far southern Illinois.
944 PM CST Tue Nov 22 2016 A narrow line of convection has developed along the cold front this evening.
A quickly-moving cold front was located approximately from KBKN to KJWG to KHBR and KLTS at 2330Z, and will be east/southeast of KPNC, KOUN, and KSPS by about 0300Z. /issued 401 PM CST Tue Nov 22 2016/ A cold front continues to progress southeastward across northwest Oklahoma this afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop as the cold front intersects low to mid 60Fs dew points across southeast Oklahoma. Cooler weather is expected tomorrow behind the cold front.
High pressure will move east of the region tonight.
818 PM EST Tue Nov 22 2016 High pressure will build east over the region tonight and Wednesday.
1105 AM MDT FRI JUL 8 2016 Current surface map shows high pressure across the western Dakotas. Upper level ridge builds across the area for Saturday, with highs 5-10F warmer. Surface trof/dryline lifts through northeast Wyoming into southwest South Dakota.
Highs into the lower to mid 90s coast and mid to upper 90s across the interior.
632 PM EDT FRI JUL 8 2016 A ridge of high pressure in the Canadian Maritimes will dominate until later Saturday.
High pressure aloft remains in control yielding limited cloud cover and no chance for precipitation for the next 24 hours. At the surface, pressure gradient between high center over the eastern Gulf of Mexico and low-pressure troughing over the continental interior will continue to drive breezy SE winds. /issued 332 AM CDT FRI JUL 8 2016/ SHORT TERM (Today through Saturday): Broad 500 mb high pressure will dominate over Texas, the Gulf Coast states, and the entire Gulf of Mexico.
233 PM MDT FRI JUL 8 2016 Water vapor shows upper ridge amplifying through the nrn Rockies. Upper wave will moving through the ridge may spark a few tsra across our warn zones this evening. Upper ridge axis builds into the nrn plains allow temps to soar well into the 90s most locations.
Strong upper level ridge in place will continue to dominate the weather pattern for today and Saturday with relatively drier air in place. Upper level ridge begins to weaken as short wave trough enters the northeast Atlantic coast Friday into Saturday. As high pressure remains in control over the Atlantic waters, a light to moderate southeast flow prevails through much of the period over the Atlantic waters.
An upper level low pressure system will continue to bring below normal temperatures this weekend with breezy conditions and slight chances for rain showers in the northern Sacramento Valley. Water vapor imagery and RAP model 500 mb analysis indicated a trough of low pressure positioned in the eastern Pacific just off the coast of the Pacific Northwest this afternoon. A general trough pattern is present across the west coast, and a band of showers has developed in front of the approaching system with some increasing clouds. Model forecasts are in good agreement with bringing the positively- tilted trough onshore this weekend, which will continue to bring below normal temperatures to NorCal and slight chances for showers in the northern portions of the Sacramento Valley.
A strong Pacific low pressure system will dominate the weather pattern through weekend bringing breezy to windy conditions.
This will continue to be the trend as another trough is forecast to cross our forecast area tonight. In addition the the trough arriving tonight, an upper level jet streak will arrive across our area; and this will allow for showers to continue through Saturday.
335 PM CDT FRI JUL 8 2016 The cold front continues to waver about from south central IL across the St. There is yet another weak upstream short wave in western IA at this time, and passage of it and continued digging of the upper trof through the Great Lakes should nudge the front southward into far southern MO and southern IL tonight.
113 PM CDT FRI JUL 8 2016 The model consensus shows showers and thunderstorms forming on a warm front across NW Neb this morning. 33 inches and K-indices in the lower 40s as lapse rates steepen. The humidity is being transported northward into the region ahead of a large upper level trough of low pressure that will be developing into the Pacific northwest.
Along those lines, there appears to be a east-west boundary in West Central OK with visible satellite showing the clouds bubbling from there into southwest OK where the lower amount of clouds has allowed more heating to occur today. A third way for storms to affect the area will be with activity developing in the High Plains then moving into the fa later tonight into Saturday morning.
The upper low will continue to propagate east today. with ridging building in its wake.
The final area of focus remains the actual front attached to the low near Lake Superior. This front is currently producing strong thunderstorms across the mitten of MI as a strong upper-level jet noses in on the southern flank of the low. Thereafter, shower and thunderstorm chances increase as daytime heating steepens lapse rates and convectively drives showers under the upper trough axis. tax The mean mid-level trough axis will be swinging east of the area on Saturday night with a drier column infiltrating the area progressively from west to east. Northwest flow will become established behind it with cooler and drier air coming into the CWA for the remainder of the weekend.
1234 PM CDT FRI JUL 8 2016 18Z TAF Cycle A surface boundary stretching from southwest to northeast across the Panhandles along with an upper trough pushing east out of the central and southern Rockies will allow for increasing coverage of convection through this afternoon and evening. In addition, a sfc trof of low pressure along with a residual outflow boundary from earlier tstm activity masked in a weak cold front will be present over the fcst area today. Max temps today will be cooler compared to the past few days.
A weak upper level ridge persists across most of the Florida peninsula. The mid to upper level trough east of the central Bahamas is forecast to lift to the northeast tonight into Saturday while another weak upper level trough is forecast to build into the central and eastern Gulf then persist through the weekend.
Forecast area is in warm sector south of wiggly front along PA- NY border and east of cold front over the Midwest. Upper trof and front will provide broad upward lift across the region. At the surface, the cold front crossing lower Michigan/northern Indiana late this afternoon is expected to press eastward across central and eastern PA on Saturday and eventually merge with the backdoor front along the southern New England coast and lee trough over the Mid Atlantic piedmont. Low pressure will consolidate over NY before giving way to secondary low developing offshore the New England coast into the Canadian Maritimes.
152 PM EDT FRI JUL 8 2016 As a cold front pushes towards the region today, scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop. Slight tweak cooler brings max apparent temperature into the lower and middle 90s. Went the highest pops, 40 to 50, across nrn KY into srn OH with the second feature. With dewpoints in the lower 70s and highs into the 80, CAPES of several thousand J/kg will be possible. A drier air mass will filter in behind the cold front for Saturday. High pressure building in from the north will provide mostly clear skies Saturday night. In the clear skies, lows should drop to the lower 60s.
634 PM EDT FRI JUL 8 2016 Low pressure over the northern Great Lakes will continue east tonight. A cold front trailing the low will move across the local area tonight. A secondary cold front will follow on Saturday.
Cold front advancing from the northwest may still spark scattered thunderstorms behind the current activity moving into eastern Kentucky. Saturday and Saturday night look nice as high pressure noses in from the north behind tonight's cold front.
235 PM EDT Fri Jul 8 2016 A weak disturbance will continue to cross the region this afternoon, followed by a cold front on Saturday.
301 PM CDT FRI JUL 8 2016 Despite some morning clouds and an easterly wind across the area, temperatures have risen into the upper 80s to near 90, save the far south which is still holding in the lower 80s as clouds continue there.
SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday night): Mid-latitude storm track remains well to the north, across the northern tier states, so broad 500-mb high pressure will continue to dominate the weather over Texas, the Gulf Coast states, and the entire Gulf of Mexico.
236 PM EDT FRI JUL 8 2016 An area of low pressure over the northern Great Lakes will continue east tonight. A cold front trailing the low will move across the local area tonight. A secondary cold front will follow on Saturday.
Lows tonight are expected back down into the 60s(F) across west central Kansas to the lower 70s(F) in south central Kansas. There is a small chance of thunderstorms into Saturday despite the weak upper level ridging as the frontal boundary lingers.
1145 AM PDT FRI JUL 8 2016 Below average temperatures and gusty winds are expected this weekend as a week upper lever trough moves through the region. Temperatures will rebound during the next work week as high pressure returns.
Some minor variations may develop in the low cig trends based on cloud debris spilling south from convection that is forecast to form over NW TX and disperse southward. Upper air analysis last evening showed the subtropical ridge firmly in place over the southern part of the country. At the surface, high pressure was centered over the central Gulf and winds were from the southeast. The upper level ridge will remain in place for the short term.
1203 PM CDT FRI JUL 8 2016 Few changes needed to the ongoing forecast as high pressure builds in aloft. The upper trough that moved through the Dakotas yesterday is exiting Minnesota and moving into the Upper Great Lakes.
Isolated strong to severe convection still ongoing across the area early this morning, as deep moisture and instability have pushed westward toward the I-25 corridor in the wake of cold frontal passage. Upper ridge will be overhead on Saturday, leading to mostly dry and hot conditions. With some residual moisture under the ridge, could see a few storms pop up in the late afternoon and eve, especially over the SE Plains.
259 PM EDT FRI JUL 8 2016 A ridge of high pressure in the Canadian Maritimes will dominate until later Saturday.
The final area of focus remains the actual front attached to the low near Lake Superior. This front is currently producing strong thunderstorms across the mitten of MI as a strong upper-level jet noses in on the southern flank of the low. Thereafter, shower and thunderstorm chances increase as daytime heating steepens lapse rates and convectively drives showers under the upper trough axis. tax With the upper trough along the Pennsylvania/Ohio border Saturday morning, upper levels will still support additional clouds and diurnal showers behind the cold front.
Temperatures in the Snake Plain this afternoon are warming into the middle and upper 80s under southwest flow ahead of the low near the Pacific Northwest Coast. The leading edge of the low is moving into Stanley area this afternoon and a few showers or thunderstormscan be expected there. The cold front is not expected to cross this area until late Saturday night.
312 PM CDT FRI JUL 8 2016 A surface cold front has settled just south of the Interstate 70 corridor this afternoon, with dry air moving into the area north of the boundary with dewpoints in the 60s. The weekend ahead looks quiet overall as the region finds itself underneath the center of an upper ridge building into the central CONUS.
116 PM CDT FRI JUL 8 2016 Will be a rather pleasant summer day as a strong upper trough of low pressure exits further eastward across the Great Lakes region today. Upper ridging is noted across the western plains, with our area experiencing a dry northwest surface flow for most locations. Highs still look on track to be in the upper 70s to mid 80s with warmer bias corrected readings used. Low temperatures will be warmer Saturday night, in the mid 60s east to around 70 west.
Forecast area is in warm sector south of wiggly front along PA- NY border and east of cold front over the Midwest. Upper trof and front will provide broad upward lift across the region. Surface cold front will shift eastward across the central Appalachians and Mid Atlantic piedmont tonight into early Saturday morning. The surface pattern becomes somewhat complex on Saturday with a merger of the synoptic cold front with a prefrontal/lee- side trough. Max temps on Saturday will make another run at 90F in the lower Susquehanna Valley but HX values do not look to be an issue.
Sprinkles have been reported at Burns, OR, this afternoon near weakening surface cold front. Stronger cold front will pass through Oregon Saturday afternoon and western Idaho Saturday night.
The persistent mean layer 1000-500 mb ridge axis across south Florida will continue to meander south of the local area with a warm westerly steering flow pushing a more dominant west coast sea breeze inland into the afternoon across NE Florida both today and again Saturday afternoon into the early evening. but there could be some late afternoon progression across St Johns and Flagler counties closer to the low level ridge axis which will bring some late afternoon temp relief.
/Issued 1109 AM CDT FRI JUL 8 2016/ Not much change to the forecast late this morning as the persistent high pressure aloft keeps the same airmass in place with little in the way of modification. The mid to upper level ridge axis will persist just north of the area through the period.
Satl imagery and model data show a ridge aligned over the southern states. all the high res models do show scattered thunderstorms well into the overnight hours. Ridging amplifies a bit on Sat which might result in a little less convection. Even with the ridge amplification temps are fcst to remain just below the century mark in the central and eastern Permian Basin.
329 PM MDT FRI JUL 8 2016 A very unstable atmosphere in place but capped somewhat by warmer air aloft and there is a large amount of dry air in place. Highs on Saturday should be a tad warmer as mixing increases and the thermal ridge ahead of the next system will be laying overhead.
1215 PM CDT FRI JUL 8 2016 Cooler and less humid today, then returning humidity and only small rain chances over the weekend are the primary concerns of this forecast.
Otherwise, weak ridging will prevail aloft into the weekend. The ridging should also help make temperatures a few degrees hotter into the weekend. However, most of the high resolution mesoscale models show a cluster of showers and thunderstorms moving in from the west-northwest this evening ahead of potent short wave disturbance shifting out of the southern Ohio and Tennessee Valleys.
201 PM CDT FRI JUL 8 2016 Drier and cooler air filtered into the region through the early afternoon hours, behind an exiting cold front. The main forecast issue in the short term period is temperatures with high pressure in place across the forecast area. Dewpoint temperatures will be in the low 60s, some relief from the humid weather of late.
Strong upper ridging continues to prevail across the ARKLAMISS this afternoon with partly cloudy skies prevailing. The upper ridging will begin to break down on Saturday and this will allow disturbances to move across the northern portions of the area.
406 PM CDT FRI JUL 8 2016 Current upper level synopsis shows a ridge centered near the northern Texas panhandle and a trough over the eastern third of the country. A surface inflection of the Bermuda ridge does extend across Florida to the western Gulf of Mexico. the upper ridge to the west that extends over the CWA will begin to weaken locally and retrograde westward.
Tonight and Saturday High pressure will slowly edge east, allowing light south winds to develop on Saturday. Dry weather will prevail, with a high amplitude ridge aloft and syrface high just to our east.
Think temps may drop a degree or two cooler than this morning, especially in areas that decouple. Saturday looks to be just a degree or two warmer than today with highs in the low 80s areawide. Tomorrow night should likewise be a degree or two warmer than tonight.
The cold front is currently making its way through portions of central and northern Montana with some compressional heating evident ahead of it with some pre-frontal temperatures reaching into the mid 90s at Jordan and Wolf Point. Saturday morning, any remaining precipitation associated with the cold frontal passage is expected to line up from SW to NE and march across the remainder of northeast Montana until mid-day Saturday. Saturday afternoon and evening, expect post-frontal high pressure to keep conditions calm and quiet with a fairly steady light NW wind.
The unsettled weather will continue on Saturday as the Pacific trough drops further into the Great Basin.
700 PM EDT FRI SEP 2 2016 VFR conditions will persist as high pressure continues to expand across the northeast quadrant of the CONUS. Building upper ridge axis now anchored across the Mississippi River Valley will arc northeast and into Great Lakes over the next 24 hours. The resulting 588-590 DM upper high will effectively remain centered across the region through the weekend, as the extensive north-south elongated ridge pinches into the tropical system Hermine circulating off the Mid Atlantic coast.
mainly in the Delta and over ridgetops. Upper level trough centered over the west coast is bringing continued below normal temperatures.
212 PM EDT FRI SEP 2 2016 High pressure will build into the Great Lakes region through Labor Day. As H5 trof swings down through the ern lakes today, expect clouds from nrn Ohio to develop across mainly nrn portions of the fa. The edge of the high clouds from Hermine could brush the se counties this afternoon. As pressure gradient tightens between high pressure to the north and Hermine, winds should pick up and gusts in the 20 to possibly 25 mph range will be possible.
A small upper level trough over Western Washington this afternoon will move over Eastern Washington this evening. The unstable air mass with the trough will produce showers tonight and isolated thunderstorms through early evening. A large upper level trough will remain over the region through the holiday weekend keeping the weather partly to mostly cloudy and cooler than normal with a slight chance of showers.
228 PM CDT FRI SEP 2 2016 222 PM CDT Quiet/dry conditions expected to prevail through the period as high pressure continues to remain situated across the region. Fair conditions in place once again on Saturday but with slightly warmer temps around 80 across the area as a warming trend begins. The quiet weather will persist through the weekend, with temperatures starting out below seasonal normal levels, with lows generally in the middle to upper 50s, though the Chicago urban heat island will remain a bit warmer with overnight lows in the lower 60s.
A low pressure system moving into the western states will bring dry southwesterly flow into Arizona.
mainly in the Delta and over ridgetops. Upper level trough centered over the west coast is bringing continued below normal temperatures, though temperatures this afternoon are a few degrees warmer than yesterday.
338 PM EDT FRI SEP 2 2016 The ridge of a strong high pressure area centered from northern Lake Michigan to Quebec will remain over the Great Lakes region through Saturday night. Lows tonight will again be pleasantly cool, in the lower to middle 50s.
Once again, the possibility exists of steam fog near rivers and lakes, combining the lack of much last night as temps bottomed out near thresholds, and incorporating a min temp forecast that should be a deg or two cooler than persistence. High temperatures today will be a couple of degrees cooler than the previous day and about 5 to 7 degrees below normal for early September.
Tonight the question will be how much decoupling do we see given the placement of the high pressure, but fairly confident the deeper valleys will take advantage. The period will start with ridging to our north and west at all levels, and a relatively cool and dry surface airmass in place. Without any further influx of cooler air, daily sunshine will allow our temperatures to trend upward. The upper ridge is also expected to weaken and become suppressed to our south by late in the week. As a weak upper trough scoots by in the westerlies just to our north, it will enable a surface cold front to sink south to the Ohio Valley before it stalls at the end of the week.
227 PM CDT FRI SEP 2 2016 1024 mbar high pressure center over Great Lakes with Hermine pushing into South Carolina at mid afternoon with Cirrus shielf extending back across far eastern Tennessee.
An upper level trof over the region weakens through Saturday, while a surface trof near the coastal portion of the area, which extends from departing Hermine, weakens through the period while shifting further inland. Will have slight chance pops this evening generally east of I-65, then good chance pops follow for Saturday as surface heating with the lingering weak surface trof over the area and a more favorable convective environment leads to scattered showers/storms. Lows tonight will range from the lower 70s inland to the mid/upper 70s near the coast.
315 PM CDT FRI SEP 2 2016 Upper level ridging will slowly shift off to the west tonight and Saturday, with southwest flow then setting up ahead of a west coast trough. A decent surface pressure gradient will remain over the upper midwest between high pressure to the east and low pressure to the west, keeping very windy conditions going into the evening, and breezy conditions overnight and into the day Saturday.