Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
748 PM EDT THU JUN 11 2015 A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NORTH MISSOURI WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TO LAKE ONTARIO BY FRIDAY EVENING. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM MID 60S NORTH TO THE LOWER 70S SOUTH. WITH HIGHS FRIDAY MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S.
438 PM EDT THU JUN 11 2015 A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NORTH MISSOURI WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TO LAKE ONTARIO BY FRIDAY EVENING. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM MID 60S NORTH TO THE LOWER 70S SOUTH. WITH HIGHS FRIDAY MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S.
402 PM MDT THU JUN 11 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO TRACK ACROSS THE AREA. THE TROUGH AXIS HAD MOVED OVER EASTERN UTAH BY THE MIDDLE OF THE AFTERNOON. A STRONGER NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM SWINGING INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL SERVE AS A KICKER TO THE LOW CIRCULATION OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO ON FRIDAY.
GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS A TAP TO DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE BETWEEN A TROUGH OUT WEST AND RIDGING OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.
702 PM EDT THU JUN 11 2015 A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY OVERNIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVING EAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT.
On Friday a dry cold front will cool temperatures back to near normal but bring increased winds with continued dry conditions. A dry cold front is presently making its way across the Inland Northwest. The main impact will be cooler temperatures Friday but conditions will remain dry with relative humidity values dropping back into the teens.
1236 AM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015 WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS RETURNING FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT TRANSITIONS ACROSS THE REGION. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT OVERNIGHT.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR TUESDAY AS A WEAKENING UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF FOG THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES BY THIS AFTERNOON UNDER AN UPPER RIDGE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S.
324 PM CDT MON SEP 21 2015 SHORT TERM CONCERNS REVOLVE AROUND A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. WITH A PREFRONTAL TROUGH FROM NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA SSW INTO NEBRASKA. TUESDAY WILL BE COOLER AND DRY FOR MOST AREAS.
/ISSUED 401 AM EDT MON SEP 21 2015/ THE SHORT TERM WEATHER PATTERN WILL KEEP THE TROUGH/CUT OFF LOW OVER THE EASTERN U. WITH A WEAK RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE PLAINS. SHORT TERM MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEEPEN INTO A LOW. NAM IS OUTLIER DEEPENING LOW OVER SOUTHEAST WHILE ECMWF/GFS/SREF SHOW TROUGH/LOW FURTHER NORTH TODAY AND LIFTING INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE PLAINS. THE SURFACE FRONT APPEARS TO BE ALONG A WASHINGTON TO THOMASTON TO COLUMBUS LINE EARLY THIS MORNING AND AND MODELS SHOWING LITTLE MOVEMENT AS IT SLOWLY SAGS SOUTHWARD TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING TO THE NORTH. GOOD MOISTURE REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY AS RIDGING TO WEST AND VICINITY OF THE SURFACE FRONT LINGERS.
AS MID LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES TO FLATTEN ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. WEAK UPPER TROUGHING WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN U. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH SOUTHWEST ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THIS TROUGH WILL BECOME A CUT-OFF LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.
252 PM CDT MON SEP 21 2015 High pressure for Central Illinois will remain the main story for the entire forecast, and the short term is no exception. Ridge axis stretched from Maine and the eastern Great Lakes back into Missouri/Arkansas. Winds will become light and variable under the ridge, with temps dropping into the upper 40s and lower 50s.
A COLD FRONT STRETCHES FROM SOUTHERN GEORGIA SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD AGAIN DURING THE SHORT TERM. WITH THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM TEXAS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL KEEP THE SURFACE FLOW OUT OF AN EASTERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION DURING MUCH OF THE SHORT TERM. THE PRINCIPAL DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THIS DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE AND SEVERAL OF THE MOST RECENT ONES WILL BE THE LOWER DEWPOINTS.
KEEPING TEMPERATURES ON THE COOLER SIDE. CPD PLOTS SUGGEST AREAS FROM WINDOM TO YANKTON HAVE THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF SEEING VERY LOW STRATUS. TUESDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER AS THE BOUNDARY SETTLES SOUTHWARD. TUESDAY NIGHT THE LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES CREATING ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THE 950-900 MB LAYER. BUT AS THE LOW LEVEL JET DRAWS MOISTURE NORTHWARD. BUT THEN INCREASED POPS AFTER 06Z ESPECIALLY NORTH CLOSER TO THE 925 MB WARM FRONT.
413 PM EDT MON SEP 21 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEK. VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AND GENERAL EAST TO NE WINDS.
THIS IS ALL DUE TO CONTINUED ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND DEFORMATION BANDING PRODUCED AROUND AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY.
/ISSUED 539 AM CDT MON SEP 21 2015/ UPPER TROUGH AXIS WAS LOCATED JUST UPSTREAM THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE INFLUENCES AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING INFLUENCES BUILDING IN FROM THE MS RIVER VALLEY WILL BE THE MAIN WX PLAYERS ACROSS THE MID STATE THRU WED NIGHT. AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING INFLUENCES MOVE EWD AND ABOVE MENTIONED UPPER LEVEL RIDGING INFLUENCES BUILD ACROSS THE AREA. MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID 50S. THE ORIENTATION OF THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS LOOKS A BIT UNORTHODOX AS IT STRETCHES FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST NORTHEASTWARD AND THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC. THE GFS SOLUTIONS SHOWS A GENTLE RETROGRADE MOTION IN REGARD TO WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.
424 PM EDT MON SEP 21 2015 WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A TROUGH OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION. GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOW THIS TROUGH CUTTING OFF OVER THE FL PANHANDLE/NE GULF OF MEXICO TUE-THU. MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE LOCALLY AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH ALONG WITH VORT MAXES ROTATING AROUND THE CUTOFF LOW. BY LATE THIS WEEK, DYNAMICAL MODELS SHOW THE CUTOFF LOW LIFTING OUT WITH MID LEVEL TROUGH RETROGRADING INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND RIDGING BUILDING IN LOCALLY. SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL PREVAIL IN THE LOWER LEVELS WITH APPRECIABLE MOISTURE CONTINUING WITH POPS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO. PLACEMENT OF THE LOW WOULD HAVE IMPLICATIONS ON LOCAL AREA WEATHER OF COURSE. LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS THIS LOW INTO THE CENTRAL OR EASTERN WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
/ISSUED 427 AM CDT MON SEP 21 2015/ (Today and Tonight) As upper high pressure builds back over West Central Texas, dry weather returns with warm afternoon highs and morning lows. Highs this afternoon will be in the lower 90s and lows tomorrow morning will be in the upper 60s. Normal highs for this date are in the mid 80s and normal lows are in the lower 60s. High pressure will continue to dominate the region for the next 7 days. Temperatures will remain warmer than seasonal normals, especially through late this week. Then, as the high weakens and the flow aloft becomes more northerly over Texas, cooler afternoon highs look likely for this weekend and into Monday.
At the surface, high pressure will continue to ridge in from the north through the short term period. Meanwhile the upper level trough currently over the Ohio Valley will shift eastward and deepen while ridging tries to build in from the west by tomorrow afternoon/evening. Temperatures tonight will be similar to last night, though they may be a degree or two warmer.
131 PM EDT MON SEP 21 2015 A COLD FRONT IN THE CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE WILL SLOWLY SINK SOUTHWARD AND THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. COOLER TEMPS ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY WITH TEMPS IN THE 70S REMAINDER OF THE DAY AND 80S ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE FRONG. WARM ADVECTION OVER THE COOLER AIR TONIGHT WILL BRING A GREATER CHANCE OF RAIN. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 60S WEST AND UPPER 60S EAST. MODELS SHOW AN UPPER TROUGH DRAPED ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS TONIGHT WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY SLIPPING SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. A WEAK UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES THROUGH THE WORK WEEK AND WILL SLOWLY RETROGRADE WESTWARD BY THE WEEKEND.
OTHERWISE THE WEEK WILL BE DOMINATED BY HIGH PRESSURE AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES. AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH LIFTING OVER LAKE ERIE COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC HAS GENERATED AN AREA OF ISENTROPIC LIFT THAT SPAWNED AN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN/SHOWERS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THAT HAS WORKED NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL PA AS THE DAY HAS WORN ON. WHILE EVERYWHERE ELSE HIGHS ABOUT TO PEAK IN THE LOWER AND MID 60S. THEN A MASSIVE RIDGE FROM OLD MEXICO UP INTO THE CENTRAL U. INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT SURFACE AND ALOFT CONTINUES TUE NIGHT.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN OCCUR TUESDAY AS A WEAKENING UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
SLOWING THE ARRIVAL OF A COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP OVERNIGHT. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS BEGINNING TO SURGE NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL MN. BUT DO EXPECT A THIN LINE OF SHOWERS WITH PERHAPS AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO TO DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT ALONG WEAKENING COLD FRONT. BUT SHOULD DROP INTO THE LOWER 50S ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST FORECAST AREA TO AROUND 60 DEGREES ACROSS THE NORTHWEST.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TUESDAY.
258 PM CDT MON SEP 21 2015 THE 20Z RADAR AND VISIBLE/IR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED THAT THE LAST BIT OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPARTING WEAK UPPER LOW WERE MOVING OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH SLIGHT COLD ADVECTION EXPECTED TO OCCUR IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER LOW.
This may help temperatures stay milder than without the clouds but even without them, the warm advection pattern should keep temperatures over eastern Kansas and western Missouri in the low to mid 60s. With it looking like the cloud cover will either be mixed out and/or shifted to the east, temperatures look to warm back into the low to mid 80s under persistent southerly flow.
LOW PRESSURE MAY REACH NORTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS WEEKEND WITH WINDY AND COOLER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
341 PM CDT MON SEP 21 2015 CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES LOW OVER NORTHEAST MANITOBA INTO NORTHWEST ONTARIO WITH COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHEASTERLY INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE WAKE OF THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH. COOL HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA OVERNIGHT. A NOTABLY COOLER DAY IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL TRY AND REBOUND A BIT AS SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW INCREASES AS A TROUGH DEVELOPS TO THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL WESTERN TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE REGION.
The short wave trough just upstream of the forecast area today will drift overhead and pull up stationary overnight.
138 PM EDT MON SEP 21 2015 WEAK BROAD TROUGH BRINGS SOME MOUNTAIN RAIN TODAY AND TONIGHT. UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. SOME UNCERTAINTY ON WEEKEND FORECAST AS UPPER LOW DRIFTS ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN STATES. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF CUT OFF THE REMAINDER OF THE CURRENT EAST COAST UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN ATLANTIC COAST AND GRADUALLY DRIFT IT BACK TO THE WEST.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE TODAY AND WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY STATIONARY BEFORE RETROGRADING WESTWARD BY LATE WEEK. IN ADDITION TO THE LOW CLOUDS IN THE DAMMING REGION. ANOTHER BATCH OF SCATTERED SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AS AN ELONGATED UPPER TROUGH AXIS SLIPS EAST OVERNIGHT PROVIDING SOME FORCING FOR ASCENT. ORIENTED ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN AND IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS. DAYTIME HEATING WITH UPPER TROUGH OVER THE REGION WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO MAINTAIN ISOLATED TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY.
Upper ridge shifting east into Texas should deflect this system far enough to our west and north to keep our rain chances minimal tonight and Tuesday. Lows tonight are expected to be in the mid to upper 60s, with highs tomorrow in the lower to mid 90s. (Tuesday night through Monday) The upper level ridge will remain over Texas through mid week, with above normal temperatures continuing.
REPLACED BY RIDGING BY MORNING. DRAGGING A WEAKENING COLD FRONT INTO WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR BY SUNRISE TUESDAY. DETAILS: MOSTLY SUNNY AFTERNOON WILL GIVE WAY TO A MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN FIRM CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER. AS MID LEVEL TROUGH ROTATES ENEWD THROUGH THE HUDSON BAY REGION AND EVENTUALLY INTO NRN QUEBEC.
High pressure was centered over the northeast with the ridge axis extending southwest through the Middle Mississippi Valley. This ridge slowly drifts east off the north Atlantic Seaboard. At the same time this takes place an upper level ridge currently over the plains slowly builds into the heartland through the week. Most of the effects from these systems will be suppressed by the high over the heartland. However with the high sun angle would expect to modify the air mass a degree or two warmer each day of the week.
Temperatures are a tad warmer today than yesterday. An upper level trof continues to shift eastward and will eventually be replaced by upper level ridge that should build into the region from the southwest. Lee-side trofing will cause some scattered convection to develop, however, this activity should stay well west of the region. Initially, it appears ridging will be in place across the eastern US with the main storm track being west of our area. To make the upper level pattern more interesting, globals are still closing off an upper level low across the southern Appalachians/Cumberland Plateau by this weekend. Upper level ridge building into the area will provide forecast region with VFR conditions through the period and a light southerly surface wind.
A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL WEAKEN AND VERY SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD. BUT WILL CONTINUE TO PULL OUT TO THE EAST WITH THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DURING THE PERIOD.
300 PM EDT MON SEP 21 2015 A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. WITH TEMPS WARMING INTO THE 60S MTNS TO NEAR 70F WARMER VALLEYS.
WV Imagery and 12Z upper air analysis indicate a weak upper level ridge of high pressure lifting northeast across the Desert Southwest. Near the surface, a weak area of low pressure is situated across extreme southeast Colorado with an associated trough axis extending southward into the Oklahoma panhandle. Temperatures today will be a real challenge, and with all this moisture in place along with a slow erosion of the expected fog/low stratus, we will probably only see temperatures topping out in the lower to mid 80s northeast of a Dighton to Dodge City to Coldwater line.
THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN MOSTLY DRY DUE TO AN UPPER RIDGE STAYING PARKED JUST OFF TO OUR W/SW. ALTHOUGH AN UPPER TROF TO THE EAST WILL START TO RETROGRADE SOMEWHAT AND MAY HELP INITIATE SOME VERY ISOLD CONVECTION NEAR OUR FAR SRN ZONES BY LATE WEEK AS THE UPPER RIDGE SLIDES FARTHER TO THE W/SW.
110 PM EDT MON SEP 21 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEK.
1257 PM CDT MON SEP 21 2015 High pressure continues to dominate Central Illinois this morning with sunny skies and mild temperatures. The ridge axis over the region will keep winds relatively light, and mainly out of the south.
125 PM EDT MON SEP 21 2015 A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. WITH TEMPS WARMING INTO THE 60S MTNS TO NEAR 70F WARMER VALLEYS.
THROUGH TONIGHT ANOTHER QUIET NIGHT IN STORE AS EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO RESIDE OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH HAS DRIFTED NE OVER THE NEW ENGLAND STATES BUT EXTENDS SW ALL THE WAY INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE WILL BE INCREASING THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE RIDGE CONTINUES ITS PUSH EAST TOWARD THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE STATE BY AROUND 12Z TUESDAY. THINK A FEW OF THE TYPICALLY COOLER/FOGGIER LOCATIONS WILL SEE SOME SHALLOW PATCHY FOG BUT TOO ISOLATED TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST.
WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT SWEEPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL UNITED STATES AND APPROACHING/REACHING THE NORTHWEST CWA BY 12Z TUE. APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND WEAK PVA WILL PROVIDE SOME WEAK LIFT TONIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN CWA. WEAK COLD FRONT PROGGED TO BE AROUND THE NORTHERN CWA BORDER AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD.
A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHWEST THIS MORNING AND INTO THE NORTHWEST BY NOON AND THROUGH MOST OF THE REGION BY 7 PM TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED FROM APPROXIMATELY NORWAY HOUSE AIRPORT MANITOBA/CYNE. AND INTO LETHBRIDGE AIRPORT ALBERTA/CYQL. A DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE REMAINS ON TRACK FOR WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TODAY.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND VERY WARM TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS. THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PUSH A COLD FRONT WHICH IS CURRENTLY SITUATED OVER NORCAL. AS THIS LOW MOVES OVER COLDER WATERS. ONCE THE COLD FRONT PLUNGES THROUGH OUR AREA BY TUESDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON ARE IN THE LOW TO MID 90S ACROSS THE REGION UNDER CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THESE HIGHER READINGS ARE DUE TO A LOW TO MID-LVL RIDGE OVER THE REGION THAT IS FLANKED BY A DEEPER EASTERN CONUS TROUGH AND TROPICAL DEPRESSION 16-E THAT IS ENTERING THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. ONLY IMPACTS THE REGION WILL SEE FROM THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION WILL BE SOME HIGH CIRRUS CLOUD BLOW-OFF AS THE LOWER-LVL MOISTURE WILL BE SHUNTED NORTH AROUND THE RIDGE. THIS RIDGE OF HIGHER PRESSURE WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES NILL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE ON TRACK TO REACH THE LOWER TO MID 70S. THIS WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER DAY OF MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH TEMPERATURES PERHAPS A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN YESTERDAY TOPPING OUT IN THE MID 70S INLAND. AN EARLY AFTERNOON LAKE BREEZE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE LOW 70S NEAR THE LAKE. UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL BECOME CENTERED OVERHEAD WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN CLEAR SKIES. WITH A LAKE BREEZE ONCE AGAIN KEEPING TEMPS COOLER ALONG THE LAKE FRONT WHERE HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S. DEUBELBEISS 303 AM CDT BROAD UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO ESTABLISH ITSELF ACROSS THE MID SECTION OF THE COUNTRY THOUGH MIDWEEK AND GRADUALLY TRANSLATE TOWARDS THE EASTERN CONUS BY THE END OF THE WEEK PROVIDING CONTINUED QUIET WEATHER AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES LOCALLY.
AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER MAINE WILL PROVIDE OUR REGION WITH BEAUTIFUL EARLY FALL WEATHER. THIS WILL KEEP FAIR WEATHER IN PLACE WHILE SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR ALOFT WILL ALLOW AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO REACH INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S.
308 PM EDT MON SEP 21 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.
Lows tonight look a bit warmer than this morning with dewpoints in the lower to mid 60s and some mixing remaining. The high cloud to the west should move in by midday, but should not be able to keep highs from the mid to upper 80s as 850mb temps rise around 4C from today.
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY TIMING OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS PART OF THE FORECAST. HAVE GENERALLY SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE 12Z MAV AND 12Z MET FOR LOWS TONIGHT AND WENT CLOSER TO THE WARMER MET FOR HIGHS ON TUESDAY.
309 PM CDT MON SEP 21 2015 RIDGING SURFACE AND ALOFT PROVIDING A VERY PLEASANT LATE SEPTEMBER DAY ACROSS THE DVN CWA. THE CLOUDS WERE ERODING ON THE EASTERN FRINGES IN CENTRAL IA DUE TO THE RIDGING TO THE EAST. FORECAST FOCUS ON WARMER TEMPERATURES BUT STILL QUIET. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH OF A SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WIND TO KEEP TEMPERATURES WARMER THAN WHAT WE EXPERIENCED OVER THE WEEKEND. OPERATIONAL MODELS TRY TO BRING IN LOW CLOUDS LATER TONIGHT IN OUR WESTERN CWA BUT THIS MAY BE A BIT AGGRESSIVE WITH THE RIDGE IN PLACE. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH READINGS MAINLY IN THE LOWER 80S.
A LITTLE WARMER TUESDAY AS WINDS ALOFT BACK FROM WLY TO SWLY.
344 PM CDT MON SEP 21 2015 A SURFACE COLD FRONT. AND MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY.
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS DRIFTING SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF THIS AFTERNOON WITH A SOMEWHAT COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS FILTERING INTO SE TX AND LA. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL WILL EXTEND FROM NORTH MEX ACROSS TX AND LA THROUGH MID WEEK, HOWEVER THIS FEATURE WILL ERODE LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER TROF DIGS INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AND RETROGRADES SLIGHTLY. A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH LIGHT NE TO EAST FLOW REMAINING IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEK.
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND MIDLEVEL CLOUD DECK WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE E-SE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THIS CLOUD COVER WILL GRADUALLY THIN FROM NORTH TO SOUTH TODAY AS SOME WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MOVE THROUGH EAST TEXAS. A DRY AND WARM FORECAST IS IN STORE TODAY AND TOMORROW AS MID- LEVEL RIDGING REMAINS THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE.
MAIN COLD FRONT WITH NW WINDS LOCATED NR LANGDON THRU DEVILS LAKE TO NR JAMESTOWN AT 19Z. TEMPS TO COOL DRAMATICALLY TONIGHT AND MUCH COOLER ON TUESDAY. HIGH TEMPS A GOOD 20-25 DEGREES COOLER.
148 PM EDT MON SEP 21 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP DRY WEATHER OVER NY AND PA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. 920 AM UPDATE: A FAIRLY THICK CIRRUS SHIELD HAS SPREAD NORTH INTO THE AREA IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF TO THE SOUTH. CLEAR AND QUIET AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL.
SHOULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS BREAK OUT OVER THE HIGHER PEAKS IN THE SAN JUANS WITH DRY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
Dry conditions are likely across western Kansas through Tuesday afternoon as short range models indicate a weak upper level ridge of high pressure lifting northeast across the Western High Plains during the period. Although a modest amount of instability will be present, precip will remain absent across the region through Tuesday afternoon as the ridge axis moves across western Kansas. Well above seasonal temperatures are expected tonight as a prevailing southerly flow continues to draw warmer air northward into the area.
FORECAST TEMPS LOOK GOOD THOUGH IT COULD BE A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE SRN ROCKIES WITH DRY WLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS NRN CO THRU THE AFTN. SOME OF THE MOIST AIR IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER COLORADO AFTER IT GETS SWEPT UP BY A WEAK UPPER TROUGH THAT MOVES NORTHEASTWARD FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.
Temperatures will remain seasonally warm as an upper level ridge expands across the CONUS. There may be a little fog at SUS and CPS late tonight/early Tuesday morning, but it should not be as bad as the previous night with slightly warmer temperatures and less potential for steam fog in the river valleys. Specifics for KSTL: The low level cloudiness should remain north and west of STL with persistent surface ridging in the STL area.
124 PM EDT MON SEP 21 2015 EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE FAVORABLE WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND MODEL ANALYSIS FIELDS INDICATE THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS OVER LOWER MICHIGAN SLIDING EASTWARD. THIS SUGGESTS LEANING THE FORECAST TOWARD THE WARMER END OF TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE BUT STILL HOLD HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. CLEAR SKY TONIGHT WILL BE SUPPORTED BY A SHORT WAVE RIDGE ALOFT BUILDING OVER LOWER MICHIGAN.
256 PM EDT MON SEP 21 2015 THE COMBINATION OF LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES IS BRINGING LIGHT RAIN TO THE MID ATLANTIC. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHEAST U. TUE WL BE A LTL WARMER W/ HIGHS REACHING THE LM70S. WITH LOW PRESSURE RESIDING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE INLAND OVER THE NORTHERN BAJA ON TUESDAY.
333 PM CDT MON SEP 21 2015 UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE HAS BEEN AMPLIFYING ACROSS THE AREA TODAY IN ADVANCE OF A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE LIFTING NORTH-NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHEAST ARIZONA. HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING OVER THE RIDGE WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A MID DECK LATER TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING MAINLY WESTERN ZONES.
THESE ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT IS SLOWLY SAGGING SOUTH AND WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.