Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
A leeward cyclone currently situated in western KS is slowly following upper level steering currents to the south and east. As the leeward cyclone intensifies and makes it way south, a warm frontal boundary juts off its northeast quadrant setting up across the KC metro during the day tomorrow and Friday. On top of all of this, literally, is the seasonal SW US 500mb high pressure ridge extending in diameter from the Pacific Coast through to the OK/TX/AR border. These waves interacting with the warm front, confluent winds, and a strong low level jet.
1158 PM EDT Wed Aug 12 2020 VFR conditions persist this taf period as high pressure maintains a dry low level environment. * None Persistence forecast in play today with the influence of high pressure and antecedent dry conditions (PW values between. This theme of mainly sunny conditions with temperatures in the mid to upper 80s will continue through at least Friday as a northwest Pacific wave crashes onshore, which will amplify ridging across the Midwest and will promote subsidence aloft. Wind speeds will remain light but will turn more ENE to E Thursday into Friday, which will result in slightly cooler temperatures along the Lake Huron shoreline.
239 AM MDT Thu Aug 13 2020 A cold front will move to the east this morning which will allow showers and thunderstorms to diminish over the region. The forecast area will be between systems today which will allow for dry and cooler weather. An upper level trough moves across Montana tonight. A wave within the trough will move across southern and southeast Montana tonight along and just north of a frontal boundary that will be in southeast Montana.
/Issued 1223 AM CDT Thu Aug 13 2020/ /Through Friday/ A strong mid level ridge will remain centered over the southern Rockies with its eastern extent affecting all of North and Central Texas.
249 AM CDT Thu Aug 13 2020 Trough axis will still remain over western TN today.
Latest short-range guidance brings this convergence on northeast this morning though it weakens as the low-level jet diurnally diminishes with weaker cloud-bearing shear and instability in place here for a lesser severe weather concern.
Looking further ahead, our next good chance at some precipitation comes with a cold front that extends through our area from mid- level troughing advecting across the extreme northern states.
RAP analysis of the low-level moisture transport convergence at 18Z is above the cold pool and fairly weak into central MN. With large scale ridging developing downstream of the trough over the Pacific Northwest and western Canada, instability will build east over the area through Friday with little tangible signal for storms. Have continued the rain chances in northcentral WI through parts of northeast Iowa until cold frontal passage Friday night.
(Today and tonight) Oklahoma and north Texas will continue to feel the effects of the upper level ridge today as heat indices rise to 103-110 degrees Fahrenheit this afternoon.
224 AM EDT Thu Aug 13 2020 High pressure will control our weather into the weekend keeping us generally dry and temperatures near normal. High pressure over the Great Lakes will slowly build into the region keeping the area dry and seasonable. Weak high pressure extending down from Eastern Canada will bring quiet weather to NY and PA Friday night as temperatures fall into the 60s.
Main feature of interest today will be the mid level trough over Alabama which will make very slow progress eastward but should contribute to increased lift for thunderstorm activity by this afternoon. Given the high moisture content and residual instability overnight, will carry low end chance pops even into the overnight hours. Mid level trough should play an even bigger role for Friday as it progresses further east.
256 AM MDT Thu Aug 13 2020 Upper trough will be tracking across the northern Rockies and our region today. There will be favorable upper dynamics over our region as well with a reinforcing short wave making its around the bottom of the trough by evening. Otherwise look for a cooler day with some breezy conditions locally. Friday has the trough moving east of the region and building 500 mb heights. BT Upper ridging will prevail over the western U.
TWH Although morning clouds kept temperatures down somewhat to start the day, afternoon sun, strong ridging and pre-frontal warming have allowed readings to climb into the 90s across the forecast area. In addition, humidities have dropped into the lower to middle teens with winds in the 15 to 25 mph range for most areas with some higher gusts along the Beartooth/Absaroka Foothills. A cold front will move across the forecast area mid to late evening allowing for a wind shift to the north. An upper trough will move across the forecast area Thursday with jet stream dynamics overhead. Highs Thursday will be about 10 to 15 degrees cooler than today.
The once zonal flow across the northern tier of the US is amplifying as a series of waves enter the NW Conus deepen the trough over western Canada. The steepening ridge axis will not make it to MI until Friday keeping us under confluent flow and subsidence until then.
355 AM EDT Thu Aug 13 2020 A secondary cold front will approach late this afternoon and cross the region this evening. High pressure will build across the region Friday through this weekend.
An upper low evident on 08z/3am water vapor imagery over southeast Missouri will meander slowly eastward over the next 24 hours, spreading clouds and scattered showers/thunder across southern Illinois. A few showers will linger south of I-70 this evening, but will then dissipate and/or shift further southeast overnight as the upper low pivots into western Kentucky. Overnight lows will range from the lower 60s degrees far north at Lacon. As the slow-moving upper low shifts into the Ohio River Valley, scattered showers/thunder will be possible east of the I-57 corridor Friday afternoon.
The temperature will cool off at night and then gradually cool through the weekend as high pressure builds into the Canadian Maritimes. High pressure to our north will remain in control of the weather today with plenty of sunshine and light winds expected. Within this subsidence inversion exists some very dry air, and we expect that as we mix deeply today we will tap into this drier air and see dewpoints fall into the low 50s. Warmer southern towns may still hold in the 60s. Friday will be another nice day but several degrees cooler than today. An upper trough drops south through the Canadian Maritimes extending westward into northern New England, but the lack of moisture will make it difficult for showers to form.
649 AM CDT Thu Aug 13 2020 (Today and tonight) Oklahoma and north Texas will continue to feel the effects of the upper level ridge today as heat indices rise to 103-110 degrees Fahrenheit this afternoon.
Latest sfc analysis was indicating that the ridge had retreated some more eastward acrs the GRT LKS, allowing southerly return flow and higher DPTs acrs western and central IA.
Hand analysis at H500 shows we are squeezed between a transitory trough over the N. Friday will be a near carbon copy of today though the upper flow will turn ever so slightly northward as the trough to the North advances downstream. Big diurnal trends with the dry airmass can be expected with triple digits expanding over the lower Utah desert valleys. The pattern over NOAM will become more blocky as anomalous troughing digs through the E. The northerly flow on the upstream side of the high will may create some new issues for ongoing fires and related smoke plumes. with triple digits expanding across the lower elevations. Moisture will eventually rotate around the high back into the windward side of the Rockies by midweek.
1038 AM EDT Thu Aug 13 2020 High pressure will control our weather into the weekend keeping central New York and northeast Pennsylvania generally dry and temperatures near normal. High pressure over the Great Lakes will slowly build into the region keeping the area dry and seasonable. Weak high pressure extending down from Eastern Canada will bring quiet weather to NY and PA Friday night as temperatures fall into the 60s.
720 AM EDT Thu Aug 13 2020 High pressure centered over northern Ontario and Quebec holds control of conditions across SE Mi today and tonight. The once zonal flow across the northern tier of the US is amplifying as a series of waves enter the NW Conus deepen the trough over western Canada. The steepening ridge axis will not make it to MI until Friday keeping us under confluent flow and subsidence until then.
Due to the ridge axis extending over the Treasure Coast this morning, the wind flow is quite difference across our forecast area.
609 AM EDT Thu Aug 13 2020 Fair weather conditions will continue today into tonight with highs in the 80s and lows in the low to mid 60s.
Given the low level moist upslope flow in place, think the fog will continue to develop through the predawn hours.
This activity was associated with a eastward propagating H700 low beneath an ejecting H500 weak trough. Precipitation is expected to linger over eastern AR today, with additional precipitation moving into northwest AR from the southern Plains before running into mesoscale ridging, thus decaying as it reaches central AR later this afternoon. Where this axis sets up remains the highest source of uncertainty at this time.
645 AM EDT Thu Aug 13 2020 High pressure will continue to extend into the area today.
909 AM EDT Thu Aug 13 2020 High pressure will continue to extend into the area today.
Today through the end of the weekend will remain unsettled as a broadening trough remains laid out across the middle Mississippi Valley. A weak disturbance, embedded withing the trough will push through the area today promoting shower development across the area.
The low-level ridge axis stretches west-southwest across south- central Florida. A western Atlantic ridge axis will extend across the Florida Peninsula this afternoon through Friday, resulting in gentle to moderate easterly breezes across the coastal waters of the Florida Keys. The ridge axis will drop down the Sunshine State this weekend, resulting in light to gentle breezes.
At the sfc, high pres continues to ridge acrs the northern Gulf, with onshore flow resulting in another warm and muggy night acrs the region. 24 Few changes expected from today through the weekend as the region remains on the eastern periphery of a ridge that will gradually retrograde acrs the desert SW and a trough acrs the SE states. Daytime heating interacting with seabreeze/mesoscale boundaries acrs the area will allow for convection to develop by early aftn, with the best chcs each day acrs the lower Atchafalaya Basin and Acadiana region. Daytime temperatures will continue to run near or just abv normal, with highs mostly in the lower to middle 90s. With dewpoints staying in the lower to middle 70s through the day, heat index values are expected to climb to between 102 and 110 degrees during peak heating.
621 AM CDT Thu Aug 13 2020 315 AM CDT There are no short term forecast concerns thanks to expansive continental high pressure centered over Hudson Bay and extending into the Great Lakes. On Friday, the stagnant closed upper low over far southern Illinois/western Kentucky today will ease its way east-northeast bringing subtle mid-level cooling up to or near the southeast forecast area. Otherwise Friday should see highs realize a degree warmer than today.
627 AM EDT Thu Aug 13 2020 High pressure will control our weather into the weekend keeping us generally dry and temperatures near normal. High pressure over the Great Lakes will slowly build into the region keeping the area dry and seasonable. Weak high pressure extending down from Eastern Canada will bring quiet weather to NY and PA Friday night as temperatures fall into the 60s.
The main topic of interest today is shower and thunderstorm development this afternoon as an upper level wave across the Mississippi river valley meanders atop a ridge of high pressure across the southern plains. The lack of appreciable upper support means that the main forcing mechanism to initiate convection will be differential heating along the higher terrain. CD Chattanooga Airport, TN 93 73 87 72 87 / 30 30 80 60 60 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 91 72 86 71 84 / 30 40 70 50 80 Oak Ridge, TN 92 71 86 70 85 / 30 30 80 50 70 Tri Cities Airport, TN 87 68 85 68 82 / 40 40 70 50 90.
/issued 248 AM CDT Thu Aug 13 2020/ The warming trend across West Texas and Southeast New Mexico continues today, as an upper ridge anchored to the west continues building eastward across the region. Temperatures today look to be a couple degrees warmer than yesterday for most locations, yielding widespread Heat Advisory conditions across much of the area. Highs Friday will be similar to today, if not a degree warmer, with highs around 105-109F across lower elevations, 112-113F through portions of the Rio Grande Valley, and around 100F in the mountains. Thereafter, the ridge will shift westward, marking the beginning of a cooling trend this weekend.
Trough axis will still remain over western TN today.
Look for a repeat of today's weather tomorrow with little changes in the weather pattern (ridging aloft in control, warm southwest surface winds in the morning becoming south in the afternoon, warm temperatures with highs once again in the upper 90s to around 100 inland and in the low to mid 90s at the coast).
Temperatures have cooled off a bit for tomorrow as the cold front that will be moving through the area will hinder peak afternoon heating for most outside NW IA. Moisture will likely be pooled up against the cold front, and will act as the focus for thunderstorms as a potent vorticity maximum moves across north of the highway 14 corridor. Storms will then likely congeal into a group/line along the cold front and transition more towards a wind threat into the overnight hours. With the cold front now off to our south and east, morning temperatures will start off in the lower 50s with dew points close behind. The high pressure system behind the front quickly slides across the are throughout the day, sending southerly flow back into the region by the end of the day.
327 PM EDT Thu Aug 13 2020 Dry and pleasant conditions with near seasonable temperatures will be the rule the next several days as high pressure dominates.
256 PM EDT Thu Aug 13 2020 Water vapor imagery is a chaotic mess across the basin, although CIMMS analyses depict mean-layer ridging centered near Bermuda and also near northern Mexico. Low- level ridging stretches west across south- central Florida and supports gentle-moderate east to southeast breezes across the coastal waters of the Florida Keys. Temperatures are in the lower 90s under mostly sunny skies. Very little change to the pattern for the next 36 to 48 hours as the low-level ridge lingers across south-central Florida.
The temperature will cool off at night and then gradually cool through the weekend as high pressure builds into the Canadian Maritimes. almost like a pseudo-backdoor cold front as ridging rolls over into the Canadian Maritimes and increases the pressure gradient between there and the disturbance off the Mid Atlantic.
331 PM EDT Thu Aug 13 2020 A weakening mid level short wave feature over northern Lower Mi will hold generally stationary tonight into Friday night as it has become orphaned from the mean flow and embedded within an amplifying longer wavelength ridge. There is a little broader mid level trough now located over south-central Illinois, forecast to drift into Indiana and Ohio Fri/Fri night.
330 PM CDT Thu Aug 13 2020 Looks like at least one more day of dealing with the pesky, nearly stationary, mid level trof that has been plaguing much of the region the past few days. The trof should be far enough east by Friday to affect mainly areas east of the MS River with scattered showers/thunderstorms. Most of the activity will shift east of the forecast area Friday night as the mid level trof finally exits.
217 PM EDT Thu Aug 13 2020 With the Bermuda high offshore and a persistent upper level trough in the Lower Mississippi Valley, a moist and unstable air mass will remain across the area into this weekend. Overnight lows in the lower to mid 70s once again. Upper trough axis will move over the Deep South Friday with high pressure offshore continuing to support increased moisture with PWATs around 2.
352 PM CDT Thu Aug 13 2020 Looks like at least one more day of dealing with the pesky, nearly stationary, mid level trof that has been plaguing much of the region the past few days. The trof should be far enough east by Friday to affect mainly areas east of the MS River with scattered showers/thunderstorms. Most of the activity will shift east of the forecast area Friday night as the mid level trof finally exits.
357 PM CDT Thu Aug 13 2020 The forecast area remains in northwest flow aloft between a ridge over the Desert Southwest and a large-scale trough covering southwestern Canada and the northern Rockies. What may be a slightly better area to watch is the convection developing in southwest NE/northwest KS within the lee trough and along the dryline. As the aforementioned trough translates eastward Friday, it will drag a cold front across NE and eventually into KS later in the day.
Band of mid-level clouds associated with upper trough currently passing through central Idaho.
-Mottice A cold front will move to the east this morning which will allow showers and thunderstorms to diminish over the region. The forecast area will be between systems today which will allow for dry and cooler weather. An upper level trough moves across Montana tonight. A wave within the trough will move across southern and southeast Montana tonight along and just north of a frontal boundary that will be in southeast Montana.
BRB (Today and tonight) Oklahoma and north Texas will continue to feel the effects of the upper level ridge today as heat indices rise to 103-110 degrees Fahrenheit this afternoon.
SHORT TERM (Tonight through Friday Night): 500 mb high pressure centered over the Desert Southwest will remain extended over Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley during the period. After holding at near to below normal levels in the wake of Hurricane Hanna, temperatures are beginning to creep into above normal levels due to the presence of the 500 mb ridge and the steady drying of previously-soaked and flooded soils from Hanna rains.
Another potential forcing mechanism for convection will be tonight around/after midnight as the low-level jet increases and a warm/moist advection pattern likely drives elevated convection once again.
318 PM EDT Thu Aug 13 2020 A trough of low pressure will persist inland, while high pressure remains over the Atlantic through Friday.
Increasing southeasterly flow will advect warmer temps and more moisture into the area with highs in the mid to upper 80s and dewpoints climbing into the mid 60s. Meanwhile, a broad upper-level trough will be digging across Central Canada and the Northern Plains and begin to move into the Upper Midwest later on Friday bringing a more active pattern into the first half of the weekend.
Upper trough over the region will deepen later, and that will keep a good amount of showers/storms around well into tonight as well. Upper trough axis will continua to remain oriented just west of the mid state over the next 2 days.
Temperatures today will come in slightly warmer than yesterday, but our real warm up wont get going until tomorrow.
240 PM EDT Thu Aug 13 2020 With the Bermuda high offshore and a persistent upper level trough in the Lower Mississippi Valley, a moist and unstable air mass will remain across the area into this weekend. Overnight lows in the lower to mid 70s once again.
Notable 500hpa height falls between this evening and Friday evening along with a 45+knot corridor of stronger mid-level winds working through the region are aiding the higher values of deep-layer shear (45 to 55 knots) over the region overnight into Friday. Behind it, a drier/cooler, more stable high pressure airmass builds into the Dakotas, setting the stage for several days of dry and near to below normal temperature days.
257 PM CDT Thu Aug 13 2020 As of 2 pm, a ridge of high pressure remained over the area, but was moving off to the northeast. A warm front was nearly still from north central Iowa to southeast Iowa. Temperatures were in the lower 80s north to upper 80s south. Tonight, a ridge of high pressure will remain stretched from the Great Lakes through eastern Iowa, but will slowly continue to move off to the northeast. Temperatures look to be on track with lows in the lower 60s NE to upper 60s south. Friday, dry conditions will continue as the ridge moves further east and the warm front remains stationary. With the high humidity levels, heat indices will push into the upper 80s to low 90s.
217 PM MDT Thu Aug 13 2020 Another hot afternoon across the plains with temperatures already in the lower 90s across most locales. Later tonight and Friday morning an upper trof will traverse the northern high plains which will increase the mid level flow (35kt) and bring down an associated cold front across the plains during the morning hours. The upper level ridge axis builds across the western U.
However, the upper level trough over our region will continue to help develop isolated to scattered storms across the CWA through early evening. Temperatures are expected to be held cooler than normal mitigating heat stress concerns. The ArkLaMiss will remain on the eastern periphery of a steep and stagnant upper ridge that is centered over the desert SW.
Otherwise, a warm and muggy evening is expected with surface dewpoints in the low to mid 70s. A vigorous upper level trough will slide east across the Dakotas driving a trailing cold front into the central Plains Friday afternoon.
Weak ridging surface and aloft should keep dry and warm weather across the area Friday. South winds and warm advection should make for warmer than normal temperatures in the 80s.
The midlevel trough continues to sweeps across MT this afternoon, and will drag a weak front southward through the state tonight, hanging up again along the Divide.
Temperatures across the area are mostly in the lower 80s, with the exception of the rain cooled areas which remain in the middle 70s. Today through the end of the weekend will remain unsettled as a broadening trough remains laid out across the middle Mississippi Valley. A weak disturbance, embedded withing the trough will push through the area today promoting shower development across the area.
The local area is in a col region of the deep layer flow today, with a trough to the north and ridges to the east and west. For Friday, the low-level flow is expected to increase a bit from the southwest.
305 PM EDT Thu Aug 13 2020 A quiet night is in store for then region with lows in the low to mid 60s.
200 PM EDT Thu Aug 13 2020 High pressure will control our weather into the weekend keeping central New York and northeast Pennsylvania generally dry and temperatures near normal. High pressure over the Great Lakes will slowly build into the region keeping the area dry and seasonable. Low pressure will be slowly moving from the Lower Midwest into the Mid Atlantic during the short term period.
A weak upper-level trough will slowly cross central Indiana through this weekend.
Current water vapor imagery shows the center of the 596 dm upper level high centered over southern New Mexico and extending eastward across west Texas.
249 PM CDT Thu Aug 13 2020 Heat will be the word for the next couple of days as high pressure aloft holds fast over west Texas and southeastern New Mexico.
High moisture levels will stick around tomorrow, so expect areas of heavy rain again beneath a slow moving and weak midlevel trough.
Isolated pockets of up to 3000 J/KG may occur across our coastal zones by early afternoon where surface dewpoints will be the highest.