Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING MAIN UPPER LOW CIRCULATION ACROSS SRN CANADA. WEAK UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ALONG WITH MOISTURE DROPPING SOUTH TOWARD SOUTHERN MT ON BACKSIDE OF TROUGH. THE COOLER NORTHWEST FLOW AND EXPECTED CLOUD COVER TODAY WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WEL BELOW NORMAL INTO THE 70S. WARMER AND DRIER WESTERLY FLOW ON SUNDAY WILL RESULT IN A REBOUND IN TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 80S. LATEST EXTENDED RANGE MODELS TRENDING A BIT DRIER AND WARMER. PATTERN IS STILL PROGRESSIVE WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF RIDGING.
THE LARGE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES OVER MOST OF THE SRN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO CONTROL WX AT BOTH TAF SITES.
1213 PM EDT SAT JUL 18 2015 A WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
1139 AM CDT SAT JUL 18 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL TODAY WITH HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS.
741 AM EDT SAT JUL 18 2015 AVIATION TODAY WILL BE THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE YEAR WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER MID 90S INLAND OF LAKE MICHIGAN AND IT WILL EASILY BE VERY HUMID. THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT COMES THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL BRING YET COOLER AIR FOR THE MIDDLE OF THIS COMING WEEK. IT WOULD SEE WE DO HAVE A GOOD SHOT AT THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT GIVEN THE COLD FRONT IS COMING THROUGH.
SOME CLOUDINESS CONTINUES OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA DUE TO THE PASSAGE OF A TROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING, BUT THIS IS ERODING QUICKLY. SOME RESIDUAL ENERGY FROM THE TROUGH SHOULD ALLOW SOME CUMULUS BUILDUPS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, AND PERHAPS A SHOWER OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OVER MODOC AND EASTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY.
1026 AM EDT SAT JUL 18 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NEAR BERMUDA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS IN THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE GRADUALLY BACK TO THE NORTHEAST IN THE UPPER LEVELS. ALIGNING WITH THE SOUTHEASTERN FLANK OF THE DEEP ANTICYCLONE.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST AND PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION HAS LARGELY ENDED.
740 AM EDT SAT JUL 18 2015 EASTERN EDGE OF THE UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE OUR AREA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DOMINATES THE GULF COAST STATES.
1132 AM EDT SAT JUL 18 2015 WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA SUNDAY EVENING AND NIGHT. A STRONGER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE START OF THE NEW WORKWEEK. MIXING LATE IN THE AFTERNOON MAY CAUSE THEM TO DROP BACK INTO THE LOWER 70S. GIVEN HOW GREEN AND MOIST IT IS AT GROUND LEVEL CANNOT SEE TEMPS GETTING WARMER THAN GUIDANCE NUMBERS TODAY. BETTER CHANCES WILL COME SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST.
STILL A STRONG ENOUGH RIDGE ALOFT TO LIMIT ACTIVITY MORE SO THAN YESTERDAY.
603 AM CDT SAT JUL 18 2015 ALL CONVECTION HAS EXITED THE REGION AND A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY.
PATCHES OF MID CLOUD PERSIST IN THE TROUGH AXIS MAINLY ACROSS THE SE PORTION OF THE AREA. UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE AREA TODAY WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE EASTWARD TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. ENOUGH INSTABILITY NEAR THE TROUGH TODAY THAT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM ON THE IDAHO SIDE. STORM MOTION WILL BE FAIRLY SLOW NEAR THE TROUGH CENTER.
711 AM EDT SAT JUL 18 2015 THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE NOSING INTO THE AREA WILL MAKE FOR THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE YEAR THUS FAR ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 90S AND HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE MID 100S. HEIGHTS RISE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AS THE RIDGE STRENGTHENS TO OUR SOUTH. AND EXPECT HIGHS TO REACH THE LOW TO MID 90S ACROSS THE AREA.
1113 AM EDT SAT JUL 18 2015 AN UPPER RIDGE WILL COMBINE WITH BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE TO BRING INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY. THE PROSPECTS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE A LITTLE GREATER TODAY THAN IN RECENT DAYS AS HOT RIDGE RETROGRADES SLIGHTLY. ALSO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE THERMAL TROUGH TO OUR W AND THE FLOW WILL GUIDE THIS CONVECTION EASTWARD. WILL CARRY THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS INLAND AREAS. THE PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURE AT THE SURFACE ALONG WITH BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE.
AN ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN. WITH A WIDESPREAD AREA OF FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 50S THIS MORNING.
1032 AM EDT SAT JUL 18 2015 A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.
353 AM PST TUE JAN 12 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE DRY WEATHER AND LIGHT WINDS TO THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR TODAY AFTER PATCHY DENSE FOG THIS MORNING. UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA WITH SATELLITE SHOWING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. SATELLITE ALSO SHOWS A WELL DEFINED UPPER LOW SPINNING NEAR 50N/140W WITH AN ASSOCIATED S/WV TO THE SW. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST OVER THE GREAT BASIN LATER TODAY AS THIS S/WV TRACKS EAST TOWARDS THE COAST. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRING PRECIP INTO THE CENTRAL CA INTERIOR AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WITH SHOWERS CONTINUING INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING.
/ISSUED 324 AM CST TUE JAN 12 2016/ HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST THIS MORNING.
AN UPPER LEVEL LONG WAVE TROUGH AXIS IS CURRENTLY DRAPED ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TX AND SLOWLY DRIFTING S. CLOUDS/MOISTURE WILL QUICKLY RETURN TONIGHT AS ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES THE AREA.
A WESTERLY WIND WILL PREVAIL WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOWER 30S ACROSS THE EAST TO LOWER 40S ACROSS THE WESTERN FOOTHILLS LOCATIONS. ONLY SOME MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO TODAY'S AND POSSIBLY A FEW DEGREES WARMER ACROSS OUR EASTERN AREAS.
A PRE-FRONTAL TROF IN IL/MO WILL ARRIVE HERE THIS AFTERNOON, FOLLOWED BY THE FRONT THIS EVENING. STRONG AND DEEP WNWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE DROPPING INTO KY/TN/AL. ANOTHER WEAK TROF GLIDES BY WED NIGHT WITH FEW IF ANY HIGH CLOUDS.
509 AM CST TUE JAN 12 2016 Early this morning, a cold front is dropping into northern Missouri with a few light snow showers associated with it. Strong cold air advection behind this cold front will bring cold conditions to the area today with highs in the teens across northern Missouri and the 20s elsewhere. Moderate northwest winds this morning will subside as Canadian high pressure builds into the area. High pressure will shift east of the area early tonight and winds will return from the south.
LARGE SCALE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN STATES THROUGH WEDNESDAY BUT PACIFIC MOISTURE MOVING THROUGH THE RIDGE WILL CAUSE SNOW MAIN IN NORTHERN AREAS TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL BRING FLURRIES TO THE WEST CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS. WINDS WILL CAUSE AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW BUT MAINLY AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS WHERE TEMPERATURES STAY BELOW FREEZING ALL DAY WEDNESDAY.
830 AM EST TUE JAN 12 2016 A STRONG COLD FRONT HAS BROUGHT SNOW AND GUSTY WIND TO THE REGION. A POST DAWN UPDATE WAS ISSUED TO TWEAK SNOW AMOUNTS AS LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW CONTINUES OVER THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT. NO CHANGE WAS THUS NEEDED FOR THE ONGOING ADVISORY WHICH ALSO COVERS GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH OVER THE RIDGES WHERE WIND CHILL INDICES WILL DROP TO AROUND 10 BELOW TONIGHT. STRONG COLD ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN LAKE ENHANCED/UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT ACROSS THE I-80 CORRIDOR AND RIDGE ZONES. EXPECT BLOWING SNOW TO DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT IN THE RIDGES AS WINDS BEGIN TO SUBSIDE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL END SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY WITH CONTINUED COLD.
LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FREEZING FOG OVER VALLEYS OF NORTHEASTERN NEVADA EARLY THIS MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO SCATTER OUT LATE THIS MORNING. A SERIES OF QUICK MOVING COLD FRONTS WILL BRING MORE SNOW TO THE REGION BEGINNING ON WEDNESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE AND VALLEY INVERSIONS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND BUILD DOWN THE SUNSHINE STATE AND INTO OUR REGION. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY DEVELOP AND MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO.
646 AM EST TUE JAN 12 2016 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TODAY AND TEMPERATURES WILL FALL THROUGH THE DAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
441 AM MST TUE JAN 12 2016 THE NEXT TWO DAYS WILL FEATURE BENIGN WEATHER WITH COOLER THAN AVERAGE HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES. A RIDGE THAT IS CURRENTLY OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL MIGRATE EAST TODAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP DOWN THE EAST SIDE OF THIS RIDGE INTO THE HIGH PLAINS AND WILL CLIP EXTREME NORTHERN CO THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE 500 MB RIDGELINE TRAVELS OVER THE FORECAST AREA WED. SOME HIGH CLOUD SHOULD BEGIN STREAMING OVER THE AREA BUT THE PRECIPITATION FROM THE NEXT PACIFIC TROUGH WILL BE WELL WEST OF THE AREA.
/ISSUED 247 AM CST TUE JAN 12 2016/ A cold front analyzed across northern MO into southern NE will drop south today into our forecast area.
520 AM CST TUE JAN 12 2016 EVENING UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED A LARGE MID LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WIND CHILL TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN WARMER THAN ADVISORY CRITERIA BUT MAY DROP CLOSE TO CRITERIA YET THIS MORNING ACROSS EXTREME NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND WEST CENTRAL IOWA. ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL BE QUICK TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA LATER TODAY ALLOWING STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION TO BUILD EAST AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS EAST.
353 AM MST TUE JAN 12 2016 THE NEXT TWO DAYS WILL FEATURE BENIGN WEATHER WITH COOLER THAN AVERAGE HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES. A RIDGE THAT IS CURRENTLY OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL MIGRATE EAST TODAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP DOWN THE EAST SIDE OF THIS RIDGE INTO THE HIGH PLAINS AND WILL CLIP EXTREME NORTHERN CO THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE 500 MB RIDGELINE TRAVELS OVER THE FORECAST AREA WED. SOME HIGH CLOUD SHOULD BEGIN STREAMING OVER THE AREA BUT THE PRECIPITATION FROM THE NEXT PACIFIC TROUGH WILL BE WELL WEST OF THE AREA.
SNOW LEVELS WILL BE LOW OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING, SO EXPECT MAINLY SNOW, THOUGH LIGHT RAIN AND SPOTTY FREEZING RAIN MAY BE POSSIBLE BELOW 2000 FEET.
COLD FRONT IS KNOCKING ON THE DOOR TO OUR NORTH. WARMER AREAS MAY SEE DRIZZLE.
AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.
552 AM CST TUE JAN 12 2016 H5 ANALYSIS FROM EARLIER THIS EVENING HAD A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED ACROSS HUDSON BAY. A RIDGE EXTENDED FROM THE DESERT SW. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT EXTENDED ROUGHLY FROM WEST OF VALENTINE. TO THE LOWER TO MID 20S OVER SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTHEAST AS A WARM FRONT. TO THE LOWER 40S IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST. FOLLOWED THE WARMER MAV GUIDANCE. THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT FURTHER NORTHEAST OF THE AREA. COMPARED TO THE LOWS ATTM IN THE 20S.
RADAR CONTINUING TO SHOW RAINFALL ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST THIS MORNING. WHILE SFC WINDS ARE LIGHT FROM THE NORTH DUE TO THE COASTAL TROUGH JUST OFFSHORE. THE TROUGH WILL WEAKEN DURING THE DAY. THE NEXT TROUGH BEGINS TO WRAP UP ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO. THIS WILL INDUCE THE REDEVELOPMENT OF THE COASTAL TROUGH. CLOUD COVER INCREASING FOR THE LOWER VALLEY WILL HOLD LOWS TONIGHT IN THE LOWER 50S. WITH THE TROUGH OFFSHORE.
419 AM CST TUE JAN 12 2016 WV IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWING MUCH OF THE ERN 2/3 OF THE CONUS UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL TROF. AND THE WRN 1/3 UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE.
458 AM MST TUE JAN 12 2016 DRY AND WARMER THAN AVERAGE CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WORK WEEK. ONLY A BRIEF INCREASE IN CLOUDS IS EXPECTED WITH THIS TROUGH AND NO PRECIPITATION. THIS TROUGH IS FOLLOWED BY A DECREASING AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE RIDGE MOVING EAST OF THE ROCKIES WEDNESDAY EVENING AHEAD OF AN INCOMING TROUGH. THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE ROCKIES WILL DEEPEN A LEE TROUGH OVER EASTERN COLORADO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
500 AM CST TUE JAN 12 2016 Latest surface analysis indicating another surge of Arctic air poised just to our northwest with the strong cold front located near Dubuque southwest to near Ottumwa tracking quickly to the southeast. One of the colder nights of the season is on tap for tonight as Arctic high pressure shifts through.
418 AM CST TUE JAN 12 2016 EVENING UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED A LARGE MID LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WIND CHILL TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN WARMER THAN ADVISORY CRITERIA BUT MAY DROP CLOSE TO CRITERIA YET THIS MORNING ACROSS EXTREME NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND WEST CENTRAL IOWA. ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL BE QUICK TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA LATER TODAY ALLOWING STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION TO BUILD EAST AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS EAST.
447 AM CST TUE JAN 12 2016 THE 5H TROUGH AXIS AND DRY MID TO UPPER LEVEL AIR PASSING THROUGH THIS MORNING. WITH SURFACE RIDGING MOVING UP FROM SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. A WARMER DAY AS THE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURE READINGS REACH AREAWIDE (NORMAL) LOWER 60S.
230 AM PST TUE JAN 12 2016 HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BRING DRY WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY. A WEAK TROUGH WILL BRING CLOUDY AND COOLER WEATHER WEDNESDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE IN THE DAY.
419 AM MST MON FEB 1 2016 THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE FAVORED 4-CORNER AREA TODAY AND THEN INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS TONIGHT. ON TUESDAY THE LOW WILL BE OVER NORTHCENTRAL KANSAS AND THEN MOVE NORTHEAST INTO NORTHWEST IOWA TUESDAY NIGHT.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT BRINGING WESTERLY WINDS. RESULTING IN A STRONG COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS.
425 AM CST MON FEB 1 2016 Early this morning the upper low was moving into Arizona at 08Z. Large scale ascent will increase through the evening and overnight areas as the upper low moves across the Rockies and into the High Plains. Areas of far north central Kansas from north of Concordia to near Washington still appear on track to see anywhere from 5 to 10 inches with the higher totals in far northwest Republic county. Lows tonight will only cool to the lower 30s in the northwest to the mid 40s along and south of I-35.
SHORT TERM: (Through Late This Afternoon) Cooler temperatures today than the past few days as high pressure moves from the northern Plains across the Midwest. Wind will swing around from the north to the east as the ridge axis shifts over the Ohio Valley and low pressure moves out of the Four Corners region into far southeast Colorado. Guidance is in good agreement with temperatures ranging from the upper 40s in northeast Missouri to the low and mid 50s along and south of the I-70 corridor.
THE CORRESPONDING COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACRS THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
644 AM EST MON FEB 1 2016 A SUBTLE WARM FRONT AND SURGE OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD SLOWLY NWD THRU THE REGION TODAY. LIFT OCCURRING NEAR AND N OF THE WARM FRONT WILL ALLOW PERIODS OF RA AND A FEW EMBEDDED TSRA TO PERSIST AT THE MIAMI-DADE AND BROWARD TERMINALS THROUGH MID-AFTN. DUE TO A SLOW NWD ADVANCEMENT OF THE WARM FRONT.
For tonight, A pacific cold front will move east across West Central Texas.
Early this morning the upper low was moving into Arizona at 08Z. Large scale ascent will increase through the evening and overnight areas as the upper low moves across the Rockies and into the High Plains. Areas of far north central Kansas from north of Concordia to near Washington still appear on track to see anywhere from 5 to 10 inches with the higher totals in far northwest Republic county. Lows tonight will only cool to the lower 30s in the northwest to the mid 40s along and south of I-35.
538 AM EST MON FEB 1 2016 THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR MOST OF THE REST OF THE WEEK.
546 AM EST MON FEB 1 2016 COLD FRONT PASSES TODAY BUT MILD AGAIN TUESDAY. COLD FRONT. WITH GRADUALLY FALLING TEMPS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. A WARM FRONT PUSHES NORTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASING. SIDED WITH THE WARMER GFS MOS.
426 AM CST MON FEB 1 2016 4 AM CST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A COLD FRONT ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THE I40 CORRIDOR.
MOISTURE WILL FLOW OVER THE TOP OF AN UPPER RIDGE THAT IS WEST OF THE CWA TODAY WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THERE MAY BE SEVERAL INCHES OF ACCUMULATION ON THE MOUNTAINS BUT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL LIKELY NOT SEE ANY OR VERY LITTLE ACCUMULATION. TONIGHT CONDITIONS WILL DRY OUT ACROSS THE CWA AS THE UPPER RIDGE TO THE WEST BUILDS EASTWARD. SOME MOISTURE WILL FLOW NORTHWARD ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE TUESDAY NIGHT BUT EXCEPT FOR A FEW MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
617 AM EST MON FEB 1 2016 HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND INTO THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE NEAR OR INTO THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND BECOME DIFFUSE.
low pressure over western north TX along the retreating frontal boundary and over the TX panhandle in association with the main system will merge/consolidate near the OK/KS border tonight. The highest pops will be focused across NE OK tonight. with the low track too far north for our area to be in the sweet spot.
THESE SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF VERY QUICKLY THIS MORNING AS THE 700 MB FLOW BECOMES MORE NORTHERLY AND THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES OVER THE REGION. THE MAIN AXIS OF THE UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OFFSHORE AND A SYSTEM SLIDES DOWN THE BACK OF THIS RIDGE. LOW TEMPERATURES COME DOWN TO NEAR FREEZING IN THE WESTSIDE VALLEYS UNDER THE CLEARING SKIES AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. THIS SHOULD CLEAR THE SHALLOW NEAR FREEZING LAYER NEAR THE SURFACE AND KEEP THE SNOW LEVELS WELL OFF THE VALLEY FLOORS AS IT MOVES INLAND TUESDAY MORNING. THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN THE ACTION AFTER THIS SYSTEM MOVES TO THE SOUTHEAST TUESDAY EVENING BEFORE YET ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES IN TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.
MUCH COLDER AIR WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA TODAY WITH FREEZING TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER DESERTS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING.
/ISSUED 426 AM CST MON FEB 1 2016/ 4 AM CST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A COLD FRONT ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THE I40 CORRIDOR.
BROAD RIDGE FROM THE ATLANTIC ACROSS THE PENINSULA STILL HAS A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH NEAR THE COAST. THE GRADIENT WILL THEN START TO SUPPORT A SOUTHEAST FLOW AROUND 10 KNOTS TONIGHT AS RIDGE AXIS REPOSITIONS JUST TO OUR NORTH.
UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO SOAR WELL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S/NEAR 80 OVER INLAND AREA WITH COOLER TEMPS ALONG THE COAST AS AFTERNOON ATLC SEA BREEZE COOLS TEMPS QUICKLY BACK THROUGH THE 60S AS WATER TEMPS REMAIN IN THE MID/UPPER 50S. LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW TO DEVELOP LATER TODAY AND WITH INCREASING MOISTURE/DEWPOINTS OVER THE COOLER SHELF WATERS EXPECT BETTER CHANCES FOR SEA FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT. JAN 2016 WAS GENERALLY DRIER AND COOLER THAN NORMAL AT MOST LOCATIONS.
553 AM CST MON FEB 1 2016 A COLD FRONT HAS CLEARED THE REGION AT THIS TIME BUT WILL COME BACK LATER TONIGHT. PRECIP IS DEVELOPING ALONG A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE STATE IN AN AREA OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY. FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL BRIEFLY TO THE SOUTH OF THE STATE BUT RETURN IN THE FORM OF A WARM FRONT STARTING LATER TONIGHT. ATTENTION WILL THEN TURN TO A POWERHOUSE UPPER LOW CLEARLY VISIBLE ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING JUST EAST OF LAS VEGAS. ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL BE LOCATED ALONG THE OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS BORDER. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE MILD UNTIL THE COLD FRONT FINALLY MOVES THROUGH ON TUESDAY AND WINDS EVENTUALLY SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND BRING COLDER AIR IN TO END THE PERIOD.
RADAR INDICATES THE BACK EDGE OF THE SHOWERS AND FEW/ISOLATED EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING SLOWLY EAST AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS TO THE NORTH. /ISSUED / A SUBTLE WARM FRONT AND SURGE OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD SLOWLY NWD THRU THE REGION TODAY. LIFT OCCURRING NEAR AND N OF THE WARM FRONT WILL ALLOW PERIODS OF RA AND A FEW EMBEDDED TSRA TO PERSIST AT THE MIAMI-DADE AND BROWARD TERMINALS THROUGH MID-AFTN. DUE TO A SLOW NWD ADVANCEMENT OF THE WARM FRONT.
956 AM EST MON FEB 1 2016 THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR MOST OF THE REST OF THE WEEK.
458 AM CST MON FEB 1 2016 STRONG UPPER LOW ROTATING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES WILL EJECT INTO THE PLAINS STATES TO OUR NORTH THIS EVENING. AS SUCH WE ARE UPGRADING THE HIGH WIND WATCH TO A WARNING WHICH WILL RUN FROM NOON TILL 6 PM. THE HIGH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO ENTER THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS AROUND NOON AND THEN SPREAD RAPIDLY EASTWARD. THE HIGH WINDS SHOULD APPROACH A LUBBOCK TO PLAINVIEW LINE BETWEEN 1 AND 2 PM AND CONTINUING EAST. COOLER AND BREEZY CONDITIONS BEHIND THE DEPARTING WIND STORM ON TUESDAY LOOK ON TRACK.
ACTUAL CDFNT WILL LAG WHAT APPEARS TO BE A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA ON TUE. DRIER AIR WILL ADVECT IN ON THE WESTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE PRE- FRONTAL TROUGH. WITH THE PUSH OF MUCH COOLER AIR ARRIVING ON NW FLOW TUE NIGHT. MOSTLY CLEAR AND COOL EXPECTED WED THROUGH FRI AS DEEP UPPER TROF TRANSLATES THROUGH THE CENTRAL/EASTERN CONUS AND HIGHER PRESSURE PREVAILS AT THE SFC. STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW EXPECTED TONIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA.
UPPER LOW BEGINS TO EJECT INTO THE PLAINS THIS EVENING. BUT THERE IS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF WESTERLY DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT IN THE LOW LVLS TO SLOW SATURATION. MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE 150+ KNOT JET MAX DEVELOPING AT THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND LIFTING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY. IT APPEARS TO GET COOLER.
And while there aren't any large, focused areas of low pressure near the region, weak disturbances embedded within the flow continue to provide enhancement and organization to snow showers across the Northern Rockies. The NAM model is much faster with high pressure advancing from the west, effectively drying out the region more so than the GFS.
AND CONCERNED TODAY COULD ALSO BE WARMER THAN GUIDANCE IF THE CLOUDS HOLD OFF.
UPPER LEVEL LOW TO OUR SOUTH WILL EXIT AND ALLOW COLD NW FLOW TO DOMINATE THE SHORT TERM WEATHER.
625 AM EST MON FEB 1 2016 EXPECT MOSTLY MVFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
454 AM CST MON FEB 1 2016 COLD FRONT JUST ENTERING NORTHWEST MIDDLE TENNESSEE AT THIS TIME WITH SHOWERS ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY. FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY THROUGH THE MID STATE TODAY AND PULL UP DOWN ALONG THE ALABAMA BORDER AROUND 00Z BEFORE RETURNING TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT AND BE NORTH OF THE MID STATE ON TUESDAY. COOLER TODAY BUT MUCH WARMER ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 70 IN MANY AREAS.
RESULTING IN A STRONG COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS INTENSE UPPER LOW NEAR LAS VEGAS MOVING INTO NORTHERN AZ. AS THE LOW MOVES THROUGH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TODAY WE WILL SEE WEAK ISENTROPIC ASCENT SPREAD OVER NORTH CENTRAL WY. TEMPS TODAY WILL BE COOLER THAN WE HAVE SEEN IN AWHILE WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S IN OUR WEST TO MID 30S IN OUR EAST. ANY IMPACTS FROM UPPER LOW TO OUR SOUTH WILL END EARLY TUESDAY AS THE STORM EVOLVES OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS.
DRIER WEATHER IS FORECAST TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH A RIDGE.
647 AM EST MON FEB 1 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT PROVIDING FAIR WEATHER. HIGHS TODAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHEAST FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY CAUSING RAIN IN OUR AREA.
533 AM CST MON FEB 1 2016 WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING. STILL WATCHING THE MODELS TRACK A SIGNIFICANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES TOWARD THE MISSOURI/IOWA/ILLINOIS BORDERS.
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 67 54 68 54 / 50 30 30 100 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 62 49 66 53 / 80 20 20 90 OAK RIDGE, TN 61 49 66 53 / 80 20 20 90 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 58 44 63 52 / 80 40 20 70.