Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1006 PM CDT Thu Jul 6 2017 Evening analysis shows an ill-defined surface pattern, but a longwave trough positioned just to the NW over west Tennessee and Kentucky. Ahead of the trough axis, another round of convection is ongoing, although most of these storms are markedly weaker than what has been occurring the last few days. Rain from the approaching longwave trough is not a complete slam- dunk forecast, but high PoPs remain warranted given the available forcing and persistently-moist atmosphere. Otherwise, fog may be a factor ahead of the rain given the low-level moisture and light (though not completely decoupled) winds. Again, this activity will be tied to heating and any mesoscale boundaries, so have favored the higher PoPs to be for NE Alabama and locations south of the Tennessee River.
945 PM EDT Thu Jul 6 2017 A cold front over Wisconsin will move southeast across the area Friday afternoon into Friday night.
A strong upper level ridge of high pressure will remain anchored over the Four Corners region for the next several days.
330 PM CDT Thu Oct 5 2017 The warm front is now over northern Missouri and central Illinois moving slowly northward with just isolated showers over eastern Missouri and southwest Illinois.
229 PM CDT Thu Oct 5 2017 Despite copious low level moisture an upper level ridge of high pressure centered across central Texas will keep most of the forecast area dry tonight. These areas will be on the periphery of the upper high where a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms will continue in the residual low level moisture. A large upper level low pressure area centered across the rockies will move across the central plains Friday. Low level thermal ridging will develop in this pattern allowing high temperatures to rise to much above normal values. The associated surface cold front will move through the forecast area Friday night. The combination of forcing with the front and upper trough could ignite thunderstorms across the northern and eastern Permian Basin Friday night.
659 PM EDT Thu Oct 5 2017 After mostly dry weather, overnight into early Friday, a passing warm front, will bring widely separated showers Friday afternoon and evening.
Surface cold front will creep northward and be along the far southern areas of the local forecast area and may be an additional of forcing for convection.
A compact mid level potential vorticity anomaly will be at the base of a sharp trough over Colorado late in the day, and this will induce low level cyclogenesis just out ahead of it over far southeast Colorado. Initially veered out surface winds will slowly back to due south, if not slightly east of due south in a very small area just ahead of the low. The cold front will sweep southeast quickly as the main body of the upper trough moves into western Kansas by 06z, clearing out all precipitation rather quickly.
INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR IMPACTS FROM TROPICAL CYCLONE NATE Tonight and Friday: High pressure aloft and at the surface will maintain the ongoing quiet weather across the forecast area over the next 24 hours. Otherwise, highs will again be warmer than normal as they top out in the upper 80s.
310 PM MDT Thu Oct 5 2017 Large upper low sits across the northern Rockies with ridging over SW to central Canada. Upper low will slide eastward tonight into the Dakotas.
Dry and warm weather conditions are expected tonight through Friday evening as an upper level ridge dominates the area.
244 PM EDT Thu Oct 5 2017 Persistent high pressure will keep dry weather over the region through Friday.
This boundary will lift northward today as a warm front and be the focus for potential flooding rains this evening through Friday night. Temperatures will range from the mid 70s south of the warm front to the upper 60s across northern Missouri. By this evening, the east- west oriented warm front will have lifted to near the Highway 36 corridor. The one saving grace here is the the nose of he LLJ will be focused a little further north and east and the warm front may move north of the CWA into southern Iowa and shift the axis of heavier precipitation into southern Iowa/western Illinois on the day Friday. Friday night, a upper level trough will dig from the western High Plains into the central Plains. This will force the warm front back south into the CWA as a cold front.
152 PM EDT Thu Oct 5 2017 A weak cold front will push south across the forecast area today. then lift north as a warm front late tonight into tomorrow morning. Weak cold front near a FDY to ERI line. Models continue to lift front back north as a warm front, but models a little slower with the front. Showers are expected to lift northward with the warm front Friday night.
204 PM MDT Thu Oct 5 2017 An upper level trough will slide across the Great Basin tonight and then over Colorado Friday. A few showers and storms will be possible through mid evening ahead of the trough, mainly south of I-70 where the best lift and instability will reside. Because of the northerly winds and cloudy skies, highs will be lower with readings in the lower 60s over northeast Colorado. The upper level trough will move across the state. In addition, the airmass becomes slightly unstable Friday afternoon due to cooling aloft under the upper level trough.
446 PM EDT Thu Oct 5 2017 High pressure will extend into the area from the northeast through Friday.
418 PM EDT Thu Oct 5 2017 A weak cold front will stall out across the southern part of the state tonight into Friday.
As the warm front lifts northward during the afternoon and evening hours, the chance for thunder will increase. Temperatures will be cool-ish in the 60s, but as the warm front lifts back to the north, some areas. Friday: The front stalls and begins to head back south as a cold front as the upper disturbance approaches from the west. Currently have an average of 1 to 3 inches of rain across the area, with the highest totals along and southeast of a Geneva, NE to Osborne, KS line.
316 PM CDT Thu Oct 5 2017 Warm and dry conditions will continue across the Mid-South through Friday as an upper ridge of high pressure remains over the area.
316 PM CDT Thu Oct 5 2017 A warm front extended from northern KS to central IL with temperatures in the 70s to lower 80s south of the front. Tonight: Upper level impulse coming across the cwa with the warm front pushing into our far southern cwa. Lows should range from the mid 50s along Highway 20 to the lower 60s in our southern cwa. This will be caused by a low level jet impinging on the warm front (forcing), ahead of the main upper level trough pushing eastward into the Plains.
The eastern counties were clearer and cooler. upper level high pressure will continue the dry spell for the region.
Issued by National Weather Service SALT LAKE CITY UT 347 PM MDT Thu Oct 5 2017 An upper level trough currently stretching from central Montana to northeastern Nevada will push eastward into the Plains states by Friday afternoon. Ahead of this trough, sufficient instability, relatively deep moisture and favorable orographic forcing continue to bring a threat of convection to the San Juan Mountains east of Cortez. As the long wave trough that has been over the West for days finally leaves the region, a few isolated showers or even a thunderstorm will be possible across much of western Colorado Friday afternoon.
/issued 425 AM CDT Thu Oct 5 2017/ SHORT TERM (Now through Friday): Inverted trough continues to drift westward, allowing drier air to begin to develop into the region later this afternoon.
/issued 417 AM CDT Thu Oct 5 2017/ An upper level high centered over central Texas will shift westward today and into northern Mexico by tonight. Clockwise circulation around the high should keep the greater deep layer moisture and instability in our western CWA where isolated to widely scattered storms are possible today.
237 PM EDT Thu Oct 5 2017 A weak front will remain to our north through Friday before pushing north as a warm front this weekend.
High pressure remains in control with continued dry weather tonight. May have a few passing high clouds during the night, but otherwise, it should be mostly clear with minimum temperatures expected to be a degree or two warmer than last night. We should see 850mb temperatures increase by a degree or two resulting in surface max temperatures expected to be about a degree or two warmer than Thursday afternoon.
The entire are would see rain, maybe up to a couple inches if the highest solution verifies, but that won't bring any significant impacts. There is more uncertainty with the strength of the winds behind the low. Winds will remain generally less than 15 knots throughout the day on Friday but veer toward the west southeast as a deepening low pressure system approaches the area on Friday night.
656 PM EDT Thu Oct 5 2017 Aviation Scattered showers will continue to develop late this afternoon and tonight and the warm front will continue to lift north through Michigan Friday and bring numerous showers Friday afternoon through Friday night.
311 PM CDT Thu Oct 5 2017 UL ridging dominated across the Four-State Region today, resulting in partly cloudy skies/cu deck, light east-southeast sfc flow and daytime temps in the middle to upper 80s per 20Z metars.
445 PM CDT Thu Oct 5 2017 With the initiation point of the showers and thunderstorms expected to remain anchored near the warm front and trof intersection towards southwest Iowa and Northwest Missouri, the rains are becoming virga as they head east into eastern Iowa. ERVIN A warm front extended from northern KS to central IL with temperatures in the 70s to lower 80s south of the front. Tonight: Upper level impulse coming across the cwa with the warm front pushing into our far southern cwa. Lows should range from the mid 50s along Highway 20 to the lower 60s in our southern cwa. This will be caused by a low level jet impinging on the warm front (forcing), ahead of the main upper level trough pushing eastward into the Plains.
A mid and upper low/trough across the northwestern part of the United States, will move east and south as very strong flow approaches the Pacific Northwest.
By late morning, elevated moisture transport will begin to ramp up from southwest into central Kansas as the surface warm front lifts north across the area. The significant upper trof which emerges from the closed western CONUS upper low will move east across the Rockies Friday and then across the Plains on Friday night. An unseasonably warm and breezy day is expected on Friday ahead of the approaching cold front. Very impressive deep layer shear greater than 50 kts and moderate instability will reside along/just ahead of the cold front Friday evening. While forcing along the cold front will eventually support linear convection with bowing segments, there could be a small window in the early evening around 00z for some discrete supercells where bulk shear vectors may show some cross-wise flow along the front.
302 PM MDT Thu Oct 5 2017 A Pacific front will approach the region on Friday, resulting in warmer air moving into the area for one day, along with windy conditions developing by late in the day.
148 PM EDT Thu Oct 5 2017 Aviation A dry day is in store with high pressure in control, although cloud cover will increase this afternoon and a few light showers are possible tonight.
A single band of clouds has made its way into Lake County from the north and will continue to move southward and eastward around a low pressure system centered over the Oregon, Idaho and Nevada border. Have decided against issuing a frost advisory as temperatures are still expected to be somewhat warmer tonight.
This could be because of deeper moisture tonight, extending above 700mb blocking the radiation condition. Rain showers continue into Friday and Friday night as a low pressure system remains over the south central Rockies. Temperatures remain cooler in the mid to upper 50s on Friday as well.
119 PM EDT Thu Oct 5 2017 Partly sunny and warmer than average temperatures are expected today with weak high pressure building into the region.
100 PM CDT Thu Oct 5 2017 Front has begun to move back north as a warm front. Highs in the warm sector will reach the lower to middle 80s this afternoon. As for temps today, with the front lifting north as a warm front, breaks in clouds are expected today across the srn half or so of the CWA. Have trended twd the warmer guidance tonight again with sly flow across the area. Southerly surface winds will lead to warmer high temperatures on Friday, plus more solar insolation is expected due to less cloud cover at least across southeast MO and southwest IL.
309 PM CDT Thu Oct 5 2017 A warm front extended from northern KS to central IL with temperatures in the 70s to lower 80s south of the front. Tonight: Upper level impulse coming across the cwa with the warm front pushing into our far southern cwa. Lows should range from the mid 50s along Highway 20 to the lower 60s in our southern cwa. This will be caused by a low level jet impinging on the warm front (forcing), ahead of the main upper level trough pushing eastward into the Plains.
positively tilted trough across the western US and a broad ridge located located downstream of this trough from the Southern Plains and into the Southeast. a stationary boundary was located from the east-central Rockies E into the northern Mid Atlantic with high pressure generally to the N and S. Rest of the afternoon and through tonight: Overall beautiful day across the CWA as high pressure dominates both aloft and at the sfc. with enhanced coverage across southern zones near a shear axis corresponding to the flow around the southern periphery of the mid level high and the flow around a low pressure disturbance across the FL Keys. These processes combined will begin to erode the broad area of high pressure across the region.
Friday and Friday night is where we have the highest pops of the period, due to mid level low/trof moving across the region.
On Friday, a Pacific front will approach the region, resulting in warmer air moving into the area for one day, along with windy conditions developing by late in the day. Flooding is not anticipated at this time as soils remain unfrozen and temperatures will drop near/below freezing overnight most nights.
249 PM CDT Thu Oct 5 2017 The 12Z guidance indicates that the entire region should be firmly in the warm sector tonight and Friday, as a short wave trough aloft deepens over the Rockies. Any lingering ridging (subsidence and warming) over the WFO PAH forecast area will dissipate between 9z-12z (4-7 am CDT) Friday.
With high pressure in control, expect light wind and mostly clear skies.
/issued 452 AM CDT Thu Oct 5 2017/ (Today and Tonight) Upper level high pressure will be parked over West Central Texas during the next 24 hours, bringing dry weather and slightly warmer temperatures.
A developing low pressure system in the high plains of Western Kansas supports precipitation to move northeast into the area in the next 18 to 24 hours of rain showers with possibly an isolated storm in the south tonight as the front moves back north.
In the upper levels a high height center is over Texas and a trough is over the Gulf.
The h5 pattern generally remains the same through 12Z Friday with the longwave trough from MT/ID/NV. the low level jet increases across Kansas. We see a re-surgence of moisture transport Thursday night into Friday morning and again Friday night with stronger forcing moving in with the h5 trough working across the Central Plains. Still some severe weather potential for southeast Nebraska into southwest Iowa as the trough swings through Friday night with the south surface flow and stronger veering winds aloft and increasing instability from the southwest.
315 PM EDT Thu Oct 5 2017 Early this afternoon, the upper level synoptic pattern was characterized by relatively zonal flow across the lower Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. An elongated ridge has been slowly suppressed to the south, from Texas to the Carolinas, with troughing over the western US. This will send the boundary to our north further northward as a warm front. Lows tonight will range from the mid 50s in the south and east to the lower 60s in the north. With southerly flow in the low levels and at least partial sunshine, highs Friday are expected to reach the low to mid 80s. Southwest flow will deepen further Friday night ahead of the approaching trough, so lows will be quite mild in the upper 50s to mid 60s.
High pressure north of the waters combined with an inverted trough/ tropical wave over the Florida Straits will maintain a tight pressure gradient across the region with a strong and gusty east to northeast winds and elevated seas continuing over the Gulf waters through late tonight with Small Craft Advisory headlines remaining in place through the period. During Friday the inverted trough and wave will move further to the west over the Gulf with winds diminishing as they become southeasterly.
High pressure remains over the region tonight, slowly moving east-southeast towards the Great Lakes as the low washes out within a large mid level trough off to our west and a S/WV ridge forms over the Dakotas. Winds will be light and the sky should be clear to partly cloudy which will lead to overnight lows in the low to mid 30s. Mid level trough moving into the Northern Rockies tonight will eject east across the Great Plains Friday.
/19/ High pressure at the surface and aloft will result in another quiet and toasty early-October afternoon across the forecast area today. /19/ Prior discussion below: The ArkLaMiss will remain under the influence of broad ridging with the ridge initially centered over central Texas at the start of the period. Despite the center of the ridge being well to our west, anomalously high mid-level heights and temps will keep warm daytime high temps in the upper 80s across much of the region. The overnight period will be primed for radiational cooling with light to calm winds under a relaxed surface pressure gradient and clear skies with low temps dropping into the low 60s and upper 50s.
200 PM EDT Thu Oct 5 2017 High pressure will extend into the area from the northeast through Friday.
High temperatures will rise into the 50s and 60s most areas, 70s in the lower valleys of central Idaho. The wind will definitely make it feel cooler for any outside school games.
334 PM EDT Thu Oct 5 2017 After mostly dry weather, overnight into early Friday, a passing warm front, will bring widely separated showers Friday afternoon and evening.
and Friday Not much in the way of forcing for precipitation today or tonight with high pressure moving across Wisconsin.
245 PM EDT Thu Oct 05 2017 High pressure will extend from the western Atlantic to the southern Appalachians into early this weekend. The east-west oriented ridge will remain in place through tonight.
1123 AM MDT Thu Oct 5 2017 Current surface analysis shows weak low pressure over southwest SD, with weak cold front/trough trailing southwest into western CO. Upper level analysis continues to show trough over the western US, with low pressure centered over ID. Isolated showers and possibly a thunderstorm will continue to develop near the low across south central SD through the early morning hours before exiting the area. Periods of unsettled weather will continue through Friday as trough to the west eventually moves east across the region. Could see a mix of rain and snow across the highest elevations of the Black Hills late tonight into early Friday. Highs today will be in the mid 50s to mid 60s, with slightly cooler temps on Friday, especially from northeast WY to south central SD.
A weak upper level low pressure system is located over central Idaho this morning. An offshore ridge builds over the forecast area this evening and tonight. Lows will likely be a few degrees warmer than this morning, but still mainly in the 30s to lower 40s. SCT-BKN cirrus will move out of the region this evening as northeasterly flow aloft becomes more northerly as the upper level low over southern ID finally shifts east.
Quiet weather today and tonight as high pressure moves in. Therefore, for this forecast the lower end of model guidance was used, but this still may not be quite low enough in some spots. The current forecast keeps most locations at or above freezing tonight, so no freeze headlines were issued for tonight.
Will see one more day of conditions very similar to today as weakening high pressure remains over the region.
Mid-level ridging will remain above North and Central Texas, maintaining precipitation-free weather. Sustained wind speeds may top 10kts on Friday as a cold front dives south on the High Plains.
High pressure aloft is progged to amplify near the West Coast allowing for northwesterly/westerly flow aloft to encompass southeast Arizona.
An elongated upper trough overhead will slowly lift out to the east tonight through Friday.
A quiet day across the Tennessee Valley this morning with high pressure established at the surface and an upper-ridge maintained to the southwest across the Texas Hill County. Given the dry boundary layer and good isolation, highs will once again warm into the low to mid 80s. Easterly surface winds will promote some slightly cooler air across the valleys and terrain of far Northeast Alabama, where some located spots will peak in the upper 70s. The trough moving across the Intermountain West will be moving across the central/southern Plains bringing the potential for severe weather over TX/OK/KS region on Friday. Meanwhile, further east, the ridge will be moving towards the east becoming centered north of the Bahamas.
The one exception will be at AUS, where we did mention some brief MVFR vsbys between 12-16Z, but will keep cigs SCT due to slightly drier air in the low levels. A warmer and drier short term is expected as the high PWAT moisture plume that moved over the region the last couple days will continue to push westward and the center of an H5 high settles over the area. The result will likely be similar isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms like our previous couple days but along the periphery of the high, which at this point should be west of the Rio Grande and south of our CWA. Thus, highs in the low to mid 80s can be expected today, with highs increasing 2-3 degrees each day into the weekend.
243 PM EDT Thu Oct 5 2017 A weak cold front will stall out across the southern part of the state tonight into Friday.
Aloft, we have a closed low over the Rockies, with a jet streak from south of the closed low into the northern plains. The higher axis of moisture has shifted northwestward over the past 24 hours. For the rest of tonight and today, front is expected to lift northward as southwest flow aloft increases ahead of the low closed low in the Rockies. A cold front will still be northwest of the area by 00z.
Cooler, drier air will move in today and overnight with dewpoints falling into the upper 50s to lower 60s by Sunday morning. This wave will move eastward today and drive a cold front through the region.
/Today through Tonight/ Boundary has drifted south and is oriented west-to-east along the Interstate 80 corridor resulting in some cooler temperatures north of the boundary. Plus, dew points seem to pool slightly higher along the front and even if temperatures do not reach the lower 90s, the stress of the previous several days of the humidity is enough to warrant the heat warning for today.
With high pressure still very much in place, expect the weekend to be warm and dry, though much less windy in many locations.
Meanwhile, weak high pres continues to ridge over the southeastern US and northern Gulf of Mexico resulting in very light/near calm winds acrs the area. 24 The upper low will continue to retrograde over the northwest Gulf coast through Sunday. Increased instability and lift associated with the low will allow sctd showers and tstms to develop over the area this morning, especially along and south of I-10. Daytime temperatures today and Sunday will be a few degrees cooler than the past few days with aftn highs expected to range from the upper 80s to lower 90s, and will be dependent on shower/cloud coverage.
Temperatures today will once again rise into the low 90s or upper 80s across the Snake River Plain, with a similar forecast for Sunday.