Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
557 AM CST Fri Feb 26 2021 (Today and Saturday) Trough and associated precip is expected to be well east of the area by sunrise, however cloud cover will be slow to erode.
between an amplifying upper level ridge over the eastern GOMEX and Southeast US. and a persistent upper level ridge offshore the Pacific coast. At this time, expect highs ranging from the lower-mid 40s in northeast CO to the mid-upper 50s in southeast portions of the area (Leoti-Gove City-Hill City).
244 AM MST Fri Feb 26 2021 WV imagery tonight indicates broad trof being carved out across the nrn Rockies. A few embedded impulses can be identified within the broader trof, most notably one just to our west across the nrn High Plains and another near the Pac NW. Otherwise, earlier downslope winds have largely abated across the nrn foothills as sfc trof axis and attendant front have shifted ewd. If current timing and placement stands, temperatures could be in the low to mid 30s for approximately half of the precipitation, which may significantly cut into any snowfall totals.
419 AM EST Fri Feb 26 2021 High pressure will track overhead tonight into Friday morning. A weak area of low pressure will lift up the east coast Friday night into Saturday.
Weak return flow has kept temperatures generally mild through the overnight hours, but a few of the more sheltered valleys have managed to dip down just below freezing. Return flow is expected to continue to increase through dawn and should eventually scour out any remaining sub-freezing temperatures. Given all the expected clouds and precipitation over the next 36 hours, stayed very close to the raw model guidance which keeps highs a bit cooler and lows a bit milder overall.
A low pressure system is expected to cross from the Central Plains northeastward towards the Great Lakes. A trailing cold front with the northern low is expected to move towards the Quad State Saturday night. Other models/ensemble members still take a more blended approach with the highest rainfall values closer to the Tennessee border. Thunder chances are focused on Saturday night as some thunderstorms are possible ahead of the cold front with models continuing to show some CAPE in the 6-12z time frame.
A cold front will surge southeast from the Panhandle into southwest NE during the afternoon in the wake of the low.
A Wind Advisory was issued for areas along the Buffalo Ridge.
958 AM EST Fri Feb 26 2021 High pressure will track east of the area by this afternoon. A weak area of low pressure lifting up the east coast and an upper level disturbance approaching from the Ohio River Valley tonight into Saturday will bring wet snow or mixed precipitation, changing to some rain showers Saturday morning. An area of high pressure will bring fair and dry weather for Saturday afternoon and the first half of Sat night.
A stronger trough was digging over the Pacific Northwest, with 180 meter height falls the past 12 hours at Spokane. This trough was supported by a jetstreak of around 130 knots at 300 mb on the west side of the system. That western trough will continue to dig over the Rockies and it appears a piece of it will move out across the Central Plains for Saturday and Saturday night. A low pressure system will be moving through the region.
Saturday will be a little cooler with breezy to windy conditions developing.
The front will lift back north as a warm front on Saturday.
553 AM CST Fri Feb 26 2021 Summary: Today will have above average temperatures in the high 30s.
Have already been seeing 50+kt low level jet mixing to the surface at times in the higher elevations of northeast South Dakota this morning, and models depict similar potential working south along the Buffalo Ridge through the morning. The low level jet is ahead of a mid-upper level wave currently working into the western Dakotas early this morning. Although stronger winds will be in our northeast, warmer and drier air will be focused in our western counties, thanks to the lack of snow cover. Saturday, the focus will shift to the next trough crossing the Rockies. While this generally remains a progressive open wave, some model solutions indicate a sharper wave developing as the trough reaches the eastern Dakotas/Minnesota/northern Iowa late Saturday into Saturday evening.
The same frontal boundary will return north as a warm front by this afternoon, and wherever it sits by then, temperatures are expected in the 50s to its north and 70s to the south aided by warm air advection. /Saturday Night through Friday/ By Saturday Night, we will be looking at a deeply amplified upper pattern across the Lower 48 with a vigorous upper level trough extending from the Desert Southwest, into the Intermountain West and the Northern Plains. Broad upper ridging will remain anchored across the southeast Gulf of Mexico, into the Bahamas and this will result in deep southwesterly flow aloft across all of the Southern Plains.
553 AM EST Fri Feb 26 2021 High pressure will track overhead this morning. A weak area of low pressure lifting up the east coast and an upper level disturbance approaching from the Ohio River Valley tonight into Saturday will bring wet snow or mixed precipitation, changing to some rain showers Saturday morning. An area of high pressure will bring fair and dry weather for Saturday afternoon and the first half of Sat night.
545 AM EST Fri Feb 26 2021 High pressure will track overhead tonight into Friday morning. A weak area of low pressure will lift up the east coast Friday night into Saturday.
259 AM PST Fri Feb 26 2021 A cold front will bring gusty winds later today through Saturday, with a few snow showers possible near the Oregon border.
547 AM CST Fri Feb 26 2021 For the 12Z TAFs, a surface trof of low pressure will move across the region today, with winds going around the dial durg this fcst cycle. This will lead to temperatures rising well into the 60s and even the lower 70s for some areas in the southeast and eastern Panhandles. The subsequent frontal passage behind the trough is expected to approach the Oklahoma Panhandle by the evening hours and will likely be through the entire Panhandles by midnight Saturday night.
Through the remainder of Fri, the aforementioned sfc bndry will remain stalled over the AR/LA border region, and is the focus for the highest Chc PoPs, which will eventually tail off over the N/W portion of the state. H500 flow progs depict a broader troughing pattern digging into the Cont Divide, w/ a smaller and more transient perturbation meandering through the trof basin. will be in place atop a cooler and more stable sfc bndry layer, and lkly inhibit sfc based storm development, keeping any widespread severe activity at bay.
212 AM MST Fri Feb 26 2021 Current upper air analysis shows broad troffing over the region with a 110kt H3 jet nosing thru the Pacific NW. Lower elevation snow potential gets more interesting late tonight and Saturday as a Canadian cold front sags into the area.
427 AM CST Fri Feb 26 2021 This morinng freezing temperatures across the upper plain states will some snow reported along the eastern slopes of the rockies in Montana. Down into the southern states a stationary frontal boundary is the focus of showers and thunderstorms moving above the warm front from northeast Texas in Arkansas.
Light to minor accumulations are expected from only a couple tenths to just a trace across the region with the higher accumulations expected mainly east of the Mississippi River. Freezing drizzle is still briefly possible for some mainly east of the Mississippi River into central Wisconsin just prior to the system exiting and precipitation ending. Exact track is still a uncertain, and the highest potential snowfall accumulations are highly dependent on this and any enhanced forcing development with a deformation band. In combination with potential snowfall banding to the north, a liquid equivalent gradient that decreases to the south, and warmer conditions as well to the south, an enhanced and sharp snowfall gradient is looking likely somewhere across the region. This may just lead to a complete break from precipitation instead of freezing rain/drizzle.
629 AM EST Fri Feb 26 2021 High pressure will track overhead this morning. A weak area of low pressure lifting up the east coast and an upper level disturbance approaching from the Ohio River Valley tonight into Saturday will bring wet snow or mixed precipitation, changing to some rain showers Saturday morning. An area of high pressure will bring fair and dry weather for Saturday afternoon and the first half of Sat night.
353 AM MST Fri Feb 26 2021 A shallow Pacific mid-level trough continued to approach the region during the night, driving a short-lived transient ridge to the east. A very modest moisture feed ahead of the trough will just brush the northern zones bringing occasional light snow showers to the Elkhead and northern Park Range today with areas of altocumulus to the northern and central Colorado valleys.
315 AM CST Fri Feb 26 2021 The trough that led to cloud cover for most of the area and light drizzle over the northwestern Big Country will continue to move east out of the area this morning. An 800 mb trough will move across the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles this afternoon, bringing breezy southwesterly surface winds to the far southern Panhandle and northern South Plains. Temperatures will drop into the low to mid- 30s for the South Plains and mid to upper-30s for the Rolling Plains. Kendrick Southwest flow aloft will continue Saturday with an upper trough swinging by just to the north. High clouds could still thicken and tamper the warming potential, but we have edged slightly warmer than previous forecast highs as there is potential for temperatures to climb 15-20 degrees above normal by Saturday afternoon.
/Issued 547 AM CST Fri Feb 26 2021/ For the 12Z TAFs, a surface trof of low pressure will move across the region today, with winds going around the dial durg this fcst cycle. This will lead to temperatures rising well into the 60s and even the lower 70s for some areas in the southeast and eastern Panhandles. The subsequent frontal passage behind the trough is expected to approach the Oklahoma Panhandle by the evening hours and will likely be through the entire Panhandles by midnight Saturday night.
Rain chances return Saturday and Saturday night, however expecting a considerably warmer day Saturday.
1044 AM MST Fri Feb 26 2021 WV imagery tonight indicates broad trof being carved out across the nrn Rockies. A few embedded impulses can be identified within the broader trof, most notably one just to our west across the nrn High Plains and another near the Pac NW. Otherwise, earlier downslope winds have largely abated across the nrn foothills as sfc trof axis and attendant front have shifted ewd. If current timing and placement stands, temperatures could be in the low to mid 30s for approximately half of the precipitation, which may significantly cut into any snowfall totals.
1128 AM CST Fri Feb 26 2021 (Today and Saturday) Trough and associated precip is expected to be well east of the area by sunrise, however cloud cover will be slow to erode.
147 PM MST Fri Feb 26 2021 Radar echoes are expected to ramp up in coverage this evening into tonight as rain and snow showers, and eventually just snow showers, push through the region with a cold front.
Models suggest that this feature will lift slowly north as a warm front through the near term period in response to a mid level trough that will be digging into the western half of the CONUS, with mid level flow over our area switching from nearly zonal to more southwesterly over the early part of the weekend. This warmer and more moist air continues to interact with the relatively cold near shore marine waters, resulting in occurrences of dense fog in many areas (especially southern counties and over near shore marine area). Lows tonight remain quite mild, mainly in the lower 60s. Highs on Saturday will range in the upper 70s to lower 80s inland and in the lower to mid 70s near the immediate coast.
An upper level trough will push off the Rocky Mountains and move across South Dakota and northern Nebraska.
After the low clouds burn off midday, enough sun should allow temperatures to rise into the mid and upper 70s.
There is a pretty decent dry area in the lower to mid levels of the atmosphere (see 00z SGF sounding) and pretty large dew point depression. Enough lift and moisture will cause some showers to make it into southern MO today, but mainly over the lower two tiers of counties. CAMS models are showing signs of fog developing (some dense) late tonight into Saturday morning and have added the lower visibilities and fog into the forecast. We are generally going with lows above freezing in the mid to upper 30s tonight, so we are not expecting any widespread freezing fog.
1034 AM MST Fri Feb 26 2021 A shallow Pacific mid-level trough continued to approach the region during the night, driving a short-lived transient ridge to the east. A very modest moisture feed ahead of the trough will just brush the northern zones bringing occasional light snow showers to the Elkhead and northern Park Range today with areas of altocumulus to the northern and central Colorado valleys.
As the surface cyclone begins to move towards the northeast toward the end of the period, a cold front is expected to begin to move through far northwest OK.
335 PM EST Fri Feb 26 2021 A series of crossing low pressure troughs is return rain to the Upper Ohio River Valley for the weekend. In eastern Tucker, continued dynamic cooling on southeasterly sfc flow along with intial wet bulbing, will maintain the likelihood of some freezing rain, so a Winter Weather Advisory will remain in effect.
1148 AM EST Fri Feb 26 2021 High pressure will track east of the area by this afternoon. A weak area of low pressure lifting up the east coast and an upper level disturbance approaching from the Ohio River Valley tonight into Saturday will bring wet snow or mixed precipitation, changing to some rain showers Saturday morning. An area of high pressure will bring fair and dry weather for Saturday afternoon and the first half of Sat night.
A nearly stationary front to our south will edge northward tonight and Saturday, but will struggle to move much as another warm front strengthens to our north across the Ohio River Valley on Saturday. Some weak short wave energy moving through the southwest flow aloft will help to enhance precip chances tonight as the low level jet strengthens and an area of isentropic lift migrates north across the area. Saturday night will continue to be cloudy with scattered rain showers in the area as the warm front is expected to move north of the area into Kentucky.
Winds still expected to gust up to 60 mph along other foothill locations in the high wind warning. Vertz Current upper air analysis shows broad troffing over the region with a 110kt H3 jet nosing thru the Pacific NW. Lower elevation snow potential gets more interesting late tonight and Saturday as a Canadian cold front sags into the area.
Front will lift back north as a warm front on Saturday.
1216 PM EST Fri Feb 26 2021 High pressure will keep the region dry through Saturday morning. Low pressure will return rain to the Ohio River Valley over the weekend, with isolated flooding possible along the Cheat and Monongahela rivers. The majority of the area will see scattered light rain before sunrise on Saturday, with light snow possible in the ridges and north of I80. In eastern Tucker, freezing rain is expected to occur this evening and overnight due to cold air damming as a result of sely flow, and warmer swly flow aloft.
Enough moisture/saturation should occur with the help of the lower level trough that accompanies the lift from the wave. Saturday: Broad mid level ridging takes hold with afternoon 925 temps of 3-6c arriving.
Saturday, another upper level trough with a closed low in the base will move into the central Plains. This will force a cold front towards the area increasing WAA out ahead of it. Saturday night, the cold front will move into the area but again moisture will be meager as the better moisture remains south and east of the forecast area.
Marine fog may drift over South Padre Island, particularly overnight, but formation will confine itself to the cooler nearshore Gulf waters.
939 AM CST Fri Feb 26 2021 A slow moving warm front has situated itself to the south of the forecast area this morning. The boundary should creep northward tonight, partially in response to the amplifying trough out west.
For the next few days, the ridge aloft will build over the region, with rising heights and increasing temperatures and humidity.
244 PM EST Fri Feb 26 2021 A sprawling high pressure is emerging over the western North Atlantic off the New England Coast. Meanwhile a low level ridge axis extends from the Bermuda High, across the Sunshine state, and across the entire Gulf of Mexico. Otherwise, temperatures across the island chain are in the lower 80s with dew points in the lower 70s, making it a tad muggy.
Conditions are not expected to improve much behind the rainfall as low-level moisture increases ahead of a warm front. Near the surface, boundary layer convergence will enhance lift along the warm front. Tonight, low clouds and patchy showers or drizzle will continue across the area with highest rain chances across our northwest zones near the low-level frontal boundary. As the warm front lifts north, moisture will be on the increase for the weekend.
149 PM MST Fri Feb 26 2021 Today, a cold front will continue moving across the Tri-State area in the first of a series of troughs and cold fronts. The cold front is currently expected to move through the area before mid- afternoon.
335 PM EST Fri Feb 26 2021 High pressure will track east of the area this evening. A weak area of low pressure lifting up the east coast and an upper level disturbance approaching from the Ohio River Valley tonight into Saturday will bring wet snow or mixed precipitation, changing to some rain showers Saturday morning. An area of high pressure will bring fair and dry weather for Saturday afternoon and the first half of Sat night.
241 PM EST Fri Feb 26 2021 A sprawling high pressure is emerging over the western North Atlantic off the New England Coast. Meanwhile a low level ridge axis extends from the Bermuda High, across the Sunshine state, and across the entire Gulf of Mexico. Otherwise, temperatures across the island chain are in the lower 80s with dew points in the lower 70s, making it a tad muggy.
/issued 315 AM CST Fri Feb 26 2021/ The trough that led to cloud cover for most of the area and light drizzle over the northwestern Big Country will continue to move east out of the area this morning. An 800 mb trough will move across the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles this afternoon, bringing breezy southwesterly surface winds to the far southern Panhandle and northern South Plains. Temperatures will drop into the low to mid- 30s for the South Plains and mid to upper-30s for the Rolling Plains. Kendrick Southwest flow aloft will continue Saturday with an upper trough swinging by just to the north. High clouds could still thicken and tamper the warming potential, but we have edged slightly warmer than previous forecast highs as there is potential for temperatures to climb 15-20 degrees above normal by Saturday afternoon.
A slow moving warm front has situated itself to the south of the forecast area this morning. The boundary should creep northward tonight, partially in response to the amplifying trough out west.
356 PM EST Fri Feb 26 2021 Low pressure moving through the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys will bring precipitation to the region this evening through the overnight. Another, stronger wave of low pressure will provide additional rain for the latter half of the weekend before high pressure causes dry weather to return early next work week. A wave of low pressure along a stationary front over the Arklatex will lift northeast into the Tennessee Valley by midnight. Weak high pressure will build in from the southwest Saturday afternoon as an mid level trough digs southeast from the central Rockies into the southern Plains states. This will shift upper level flow to a more southwest to northeast orientation east of the trough.
1123 AM CST Fri Feb 26 2021 Summary: Today will have above average temperatures in the high 30s.
Overnight temperatures wont drop too much only to the low 40s in NE AR and to low 50s in N.
248 PM PST Fri Feb 26 2021 A cold front will bring gusty winds through Saturday, with a few snow showers possible near the Oregon border.
An uptick in southwesterly winds tomorrow will help to bring in more moisture and even warmer temperatures all the way to the coast. High pressure will remain off to the east through the weekend, with south to southeast winds turning onshore near the coast each afternoon with the sea breeze. A decaying cold front will move into the waters during the first part of the week, with low rain chances up north.
Expect precipitation coverage to increase through the evening as a cold front drops into the area and downslope winds turn to a more favorable direction for snowfall making it to the surface.
High pressure is centered near the mid Atlantic coast this afternoon with a frontal boundary stalled from South Texas through central Mississippi and Alabama. A warm and moist air mass continues to be pushed across the cooler gulf shelf waters between the front and ridge keeping areas of fog over the coastal waters through most of the day. Also tonight and into Saturday the front will begin to lift back north as low pressure develops in the central plains.
A large area of strong southwest jet level winds will remain overhead across the region tomorrow as a developing upper level low takes shape and approaches from the Pacific Northwest. Winds will quickly ease again tomorrow after sunset as a surface cold front approaches form the north overnight.
Surface winds, west to northwest 10 to 15kt with gusts 25 to 30kt in the lower valleys.
Will see a cold front push south across the area this evening into the overnight saying goodbye to the upper 30s to low 50s of this afternoon. The highs tomorrow will be at midnight tonight with falling temps expected even through the daylight hours as north winds persist.
Conditions will become breezy to windy and a little cooler Saturday as a storm system skirts by to our east.
A few showers and thunderstorms may develop by late afternoon, but the higher chances will be just beyond this forecast period.
925 PM EST Fri Feb 26 2021 A wedge of high pressure is in place across northeast portions of the CWA.
In addition, periods of gusty north winds may occur across exposed ridges and coastal areas through tomorrow.
Model trends have trended a little lower on wind speeds this afternoon and this evening, but a bit higher for Saturday as the main cold front moves across the region.
402 PM EST Fri Feb 26 2021 High pressure will track east of the area this evening. A weak area of low pressure lifting up the east coast and an upper level disturbance approaching from the Ohio River Valley tonight into Saturday will bring wet snow or mixed precipitation, changing to some rain showers Saturday morning. An area of high pressure will bring fair and dry weather for Saturday afternoon and the first half of Sat night.
534 PM CST Fri Feb 26 2021 It's been another mild day today, although winds have been strong, gusting 25 to 40 mph across the area, in response to a strong pressure gradient between high pressure over the Northeast and low pressure extending from Ontario back through the northern plains. There will be some increase in mid/high cloud cover and mixing won't be terribly deep, but think mid to upper 40s is likely for areas near and east of the MS River through central WI, and a bit cooler west of the MS River.