Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
A warm front currently stationed over Kansas will continue to lift north towards the forecast area this evening and overnight. Additional showers and storms are expected to develop to the north of this boundary, overspreading much of the CWA overnight, as the low level jet increases. A warm front associated with this low will drift into northeast Nebraska and South Dakota, providing a trigger for more convection to develop.
A weak cold front will bring a few showers on Tuesday.
Scattered storms will continue south of the Arkansas Valley as well as trough drags across the area, though storm strength/coverage may be weaker/less than farther north given slightly poorer moisture/buoyancy and weaker 0-6km shear.
Low temperatures will be in the lower to middle 70s, several degrees above normal. Upper layer ridging will be in place with hot conditions continuing. Lows will be in the lower 70s.
A strong trough will develop over the Pacific Northwest Tuesday and move into the Great Basin Tuesday night.
230 AM CDT Mon Sep 9 2019 The WFO PAH forecast area will remain balanced between high pressure building from the south and southeast and broad low pressure becoming centered in the Pacific Northwest in the short term. Warm advection on the western side of the shear axis of the building ridge will be evident by increased dewpoints over southeast Missouri starting today and continuing through Tuesday.
/issued 955 PM CDT Sun Sep 8 2019/ Wx map shows weak high pressure at the sfc providing light to calm winds over the region. Aloft, a mid to upper level trough over the Western Gulf has allowed for some increase in moisture from the Gulf, with isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms developing over Lower Acadiana late this afternoon. With clear skies and nearly calm winds, temps should fall a few more degrees to the lower/mid 70s.
222 AM CDT Mon Sep 9 2019 It's a relatively comfortable morning outside, with dew points in the low 60s and temperatures slowly falling. Not only do they show these isolated storms, they are mixed in with a decent upper level ridge.
Cloud cover should reach this area within the next few hours and prevent temperatures there from getting too much cooler.
1045 PM PDT Sun Sep 8 2019 Cooler temperatures through Tuesday with below normal temperatures.
Upper ridge will build into the southeast United States/southern Appalachians along with surface ridging. Temperatures will run between 5 and 8 degrees above normal and trend warmer than guidance mainly across the Chattanooga area.
Several disturbances will move up around the western periphery of the upper ridge centered east of the state, giving us slightly better chances of diurnal convection.
Many of the higher resolution short-range models, such as the HRRR, ARW, and HREF, are very aggressive with rain chances today, while most of the global models are much more conservative. Some weak ascent from a mid-level trough moving onto the Middle Texas Coast should also enhance the sea breeze somewhat in an already uncapped environment.
338 AM EDT Mon Sep 9 2019 High pressure will build across the region through early Tuesday then move east.
This activity is tied to southern periphery of passing s/wv trough and induced low level jet.
445 AM EDT Mon Sep 9 2019 A warming trend will begin today and the period of warmer weather will continue for the remainder of the work week. A warm front will lift northeast across the region late tonight bringing high temperatures back into the mid and upper 80s by Tuesday afternoon.
Upper level ridging continues to intensify during the early workweek, with 500 mb heights reaching near 594 dm. Winds become southerly again on Tuesday, advecting in more Gulf moisture and causing dew points to surge back into the low 70s.
Surface ridging will keep winds light, generally less than 6kts.
Several of the high-res models are showing showers and thunderstorms developing by mid morning and moving inland.
Upper ridge will build into the region keeping conditions dry. Surface ridging will keep winds light, generally less than 6kts.
It's a relatively comfortable morning outside, with dew points in the low 60s and temperatures slowly falling. Not only do they show these isolated storms, they are mixed in with a decent upper level ridge.
/issued 418 AM CDT Mon Sep 9 2019/ Radar has been active in parts of southeast Texas and the coastal waters, thanks to an upper level low pressure area over south Texas.
641 AM EDT Mon Sep 9 2019 A warming trend will begin today and the period of warmer weather will continue for the remainder of the work week. A warm front will lift northeast across the region late tonight bringing high temperatures back into the mid and upper 80s by Tuesday afternoon.
1025 AM EDT Mon Sep 9 2019 Northwest flow aloft will be replaced by an upper level ridge. Otherwise, the rest of the area should see just high/mid clouds spilling over the ridge. This could allow for maxes in the lower 80s area-wide. Depending on the amount of clouds in the east, it could easily be warmer in the west than the eastern cities. The warm front may hang up and not get thru the entire CWA on Tues, but Wed 8H temps will run 15-19C. The eastern terminals have the highest chance of developing IFR conditions, but even JST and BFD are not immune to the easterly moist, flow.
631 AM EDT Mon Sep 9 2019 Northwest flow aloft will be replaced by an upper level ridge for much of the upcoming workweek. The warm front may hang up and not get thru the entire CWA on Tues, but Wed 8H temps will run 15-19C. Overall high pressure over the Grt Lks will build eastward over the next 36 hours.
753 AM EDT Mon Sep 9 2019 Northwest flow aloft will be replaced by an upper level ridge for much of the upcoming workweek. The warm front may hang up and not get thru the entire CWA on Tues, but Wed 8H temps will run 15-19C. BFD and JSt has the best chance, though due to the high pressure and the clearing skies all of central PA TAF sties have possible reducing conditions.
Upper trough will deepen along the West Coast into Tuesday. Temperatures and humidities will moderate through Tuesday as the trough brings additional synoptic cooling.
610 AM CDT Mon Sep 9 2019 The WFO PAH forecast area will remain balanced between high pressure building from the south and southeast and broad low pressure becoming centered in the Pacific Northwest in the short term. Warm advection on the western side of the shear axis of the building ridge will be evident by increased dewpoints over southeast Missouri starting today and continuing through Tuesday.
A closed system of low pressure will remain in place over the Washington coast through Tuesday morning.
Southwest flow aloft will be over the area on Tue as a sfc lee trough resides along the front range. Cross-sections show some increase in moisture over the higher terrain by aftn. For Wed, the southern end of an upper level trough will move into wrn CO by aftn with increasing southwest flow aloft. As the upper level trough moves into wrn CO, should see an increase in shower and tstm development over the higher terrain by aftn, as mid level QG ascent occurs. As the upper level trough and associated QG ascent move across, there should be a good chc of showers and storms north of the front Wed evening, especially north of a Denver to Akron line. Temperatures will be cooler across nern CO with readings in the 70's.
418 AM CDT Mon Sep 9 2019 Radar has been active in parts of southeast Texas and the coastal waters, thanks to an upper level low pressure area over south Texas.
Subtropical ridge axis will shift northward across the area, with southerly winds around 5-10 knots this morning becoming east-southeast around 10 knots as sea breeze develops and moves inland.
509 AM MDT Mon Sep 9 2019 A band of showers and thunderstorms over parts of western South Dakota early this morning is associated with an upper trough crossing the region. Subsidence behind the upper trough and drier air at the surface will lead to clouds decreasing from southwest to northeast today.
NAM12 has some fairly healthy CAPE values (2000+ J/kg) across this area in the afternoon but may be over-doing this some as it keeps dew points in the lower 60s. Temperatures tonight will be cooler and even on the cold side of things across the mountain valleys where dew points will fall off into the 20s. Locations like Creede and Leadville will likely drop to near or below freezing. Lee trough and light downslope drainage winds across the plains will keep lows in the 50s to around 60.
653 AM EDT Mon Sep 9 2019 High pressure over southeast Canada will begin to slide off to the east today. Southerly flow on the backside of the high will bring a warming trend to the Ohio Valley. A mid level ridge will start to build up the Ohio Valley today. The ridge will continue to build across the region. The strengthening ridge will provide dry and mostly sunny conditions of Tuesday.
These scattered showers will linger into Tuesday as the upper-level trough moves overhead. Deterministic and ensemble guidance show the trough exiting the region Tuesday night and ridging building across the area in its wake. Ensemble guidance shows yet another trough moving over the area late in the week, likely bringing cooler interior temperatures back to the area as a result.
However, the high pressure ridge has weakened some allowing for rain chances across areas west of a Rotan to Ozona line. High temperatures will climb into the low to mid 90s this afternoon under sunny skies.
A weak trough/frontal boundary is north of the Altamaha River area over central GA and SC while weak / variable south to southwest flow is over the forecast area. A mid level ridge is parked over portions of AL and GA this morning which is providing the subsidence and recent heat situation locally. Enhanced moisture is noted in satellite imagery imagery and guidance closer to the front/trough just to our north and this is still where we expect isolated to scattered showers and storms to develop this afternoon and evening.
921 AM EDT Mon Sep 9 2019 High pressure from the western Atlantic extending northwest across the northern peninsula is supporting a light east-southeast wind flow across the forecast area early this morning. Temperatures today will climb to around 90 to the lower 90s along the coast, and mid 90s inland. High pressure will support tranquil boating conditions over the Gulf waters the remainder of today with light southeast winds and slight seas with an onshore sea breeze component developing along the coast during the afternoon.
/issued 445 AM EDT Mon Sep 9 2019/ Mid/upper level ridging will build over the southeast U. and Florida through midweek then weaken over Florida late in the week as an upper level low drifts west northwest across the region. Meanwhile at the surface weak high pressure will hold over the area today then a stronger high will build in from the northeast by midweek setting up an increased northeast to east flow.
An area of low pressure will produce cooler temperatures and breezy to locally windy conditions through mid-week.
916 AM EDT Mon Sep 9 2019 High pressure over southeast Canada will begin to slide off to the east today. Southerly flow on the backside of the high will bring a warming trend to the Ohio Valley. Mid level ridge over the MS Valley begins to build east into the region by evening. The ridge will continue to build across the region. The strengthening ridge will provide dry and mostly sunny conditions of Tuesday.
634 AM EDT Mon Sep 9 2019 Upper ridge over the region will help produce above normal temperatures through the week. Upper level ridging anchored over the southeastern CONUS will continue to result in above normal temperatures across the region today. Overnight lows in the lower 70s. Upper ridge builds across the region through the period, which will aid in keeping temperatures above normal each day.
200 PM EDT Mon Sep 9 2019 Upper ridge over the region will help produce above normal temperatures through the week. Upper level ridging anchored over the southeastern CONUS will result in above normal temperatures. Overnight lows will be in the lower 70s. Upper ridge builds across the region through the period, which will aid in keeping temperatures above normal each day.
And while surface ridging shifts east, ridging aloft is ongoing with modeled strengthening thru the short term.
While much of the area lies south of the warm front, uncapped sfc instability could potentially generate a few stronger storms. Late tonight into Tuesday, an upper low is progged to enter the Pacific Northwest, gradually shifting the north/south oriented mid level moisture plume east. These numbers may end up being slightly cooler, depending on the coverage of precip by late afternoon.
259 PM CDT Mon Sep 9 2019 Tonight and Tuesday) The upper high will remain centered over the Mid-Atlantic and southeast states through Tuesday, as an upper trough continues to develop across the western CONUS. Also, a weak upper low currently situated between Brownsville and Corpus Christi, will track northwest towards the area the next 24 hours and bring a chance for some scattered showers and a few thunderstorms to the area. By tomorrow afternoon, should see a little better coverage of showers and thunderstorms across the southern half of the forecast area as the weak upper low moves into western portions of the Texas South Plains and Hill Country. Temperatures will also be cooler and closer to normal tomorrow due to more cloud cover, with highs in the upper 80s and lower 90s.
207 PM EDT Mon Sep 9 2019 Upper ridge over the region will help produce above normal temperatures through the week. Upper level ridging anchored over the southeastern CONUS will result in above normal temperatures. Overnight lows will be in the lower 70s. An upper ridge builds across the region this week, which will keep temperatures well above normal with highs reaching into the mid 90s.
301 PM CDT Mon Sep 9 2019 A high pressure system is building over our area and will persist through the weekend. However, due to the high moisture availability in the atmosphere, some instability is possible through the week.
While light northerly winds will be in play, afternoon high temperatures are still expected to climb into the low and mid 90s.
Will remain in a quiet weather pattern today as high pressure continues to strengthen over the Southern Appalachian Region. Chattanooga Airport, TN 96 69 96 71 / 0 0 10 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 92 68 93 69 / 0 0 10 10 Oak Ridge, TN 92 67 93 70 / 0 0 10 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 90 62 90 65 / 0 0 10 10.
While the low level shear is quite good along with the 0-3km CAPE of 100-150 J/KG, mid level lapse rates are somewhat weak. However, the tornado threat will still remain given the low LCL, decent low level CAPE and the strong near low level shear. However, additional forcing is forecast along the low level moisture transport axis overnight with additional convection.
1038 AM MDT Mon Sep 9 2019 A band of showers and thunderstorms over parts of western South Dakota early this morning is associated with an upper trough crossing the region. Subsidence behind the upper trough and drier air at the surface will lead to clouds decreasing from southwest to northeast today.
Look for activity to diminish/dissipate this evening with the loss of heating, but additional development will be possible overnight (especially across parts of the coastal areas) as rising moisture levels off the coast work their way inland as the Deep South Texas area mid/upper low remains nearly stationary.
TAF sites will remain an a quiet weather pattern as high pressure continues to strengthen over the Southern Appalachian Region.
1146 AM EDT Mon Sep 9 2019 Upper ridge over the region will help produce above normal temperatures through the week. Upper level ridging anchored over the southeastern CONUS will continue to result in above normal temperatures across the region. Overnight lows in the lower 70s. Upper ridge builds across the region through the period, which will aid in keeping temperatures above normal each day.
/issued 921 AM EDT Mon Sep 9 2019/ High pressure from the western Atlantic extending northwest across the northern peninsula is supporting a light east-southeast wind flow across the forecast area early this morning. Temperatures today will climb to around 90 to the lower 90s along the coast, and mid 90s inland. High pressure will support tranquil boating conditions over the Gulf waters the remainder of today with light southeast winds and slight seas with an onshore sea breeze component developing along the coast during the afternoon.
A weak ridge axis will sharpen today as it lifts north to Central Florida.
139 PM EDT Mon Sep 9 2019 A warming trend will begin today and the period of warmer weather will continue for the remainder of the work week. A warm front will lift northeast across the region late tonight bringing a few scattered showers and high temperatures back into the mid and upper 80s by Tuesday afternoon.
345 PM CDT Mon Sep 9 2019 Satellite imagery this afternoon shows a rather progressive pattern in place across the Nation, with a ridge axis just east of the Mississippi River, and a series of troughs digging into the Pacific Northwest. Also of note, the Pacific Northwest trough has developed a lee side low across the Northern Plains --currently seen shifting into South Dakota, lifting a warm front into Iowa today-- which allowed for the rapid development of a southwest flow across the Plains States. CAM models all point at the storms in the northwest corner lingering well past sunrise Tuesday morning as the jet keeps going ahead of the broader trough out west.
351 PM CDT Mon Sep 9 2019 An upper level low can be seen on water vapor imagery spinning over South Texas this afternoon. Models are in good agreement with the low slowing moving west and stalling over South Texas through mid week. With the low to our west on Tuesday, moisture on the east side of the low will increase with PWATS around 2 inches. South Texas will be in an area of increased vorticity between the upper low to the west and an upper level ridge over the southeastern US. Temperatures will be near normal, in the low to mid 90s.
A large upper level low pressure system will continue over the region. This will provide cooler than normal temperatures today and a chance of some convective showers mainly this afternoon and into the early evening.
254 PM CDT Mon Sep 9 2019 A large upper trough continued to make its way into the northwest corner of the country today, with southwesterly flow persisting over the central plains. A the surface, a low pressure system moved across South Dakota, dragging a weak cold front through the forecast area. We could see an uptick in intensity and coverage again late this evening and into the overnight hours as the low level jet increases. The best chance at thunderstorm initiation for northern portions of the forecast area will likely be during the evening hours as the low level jet once again enhances convective development.
Conditions tomorrow are expected to be mostly dry as high pressure builds in over the forecast area. Overnight low temperatures will be in the lower to mid 70s for inland areas and in the mid to upper 70s for coastal areas and beaches. Predominantly dry conditions will carry on into midweek with the effects of high pressure continuing over southeast Georgia and northeast Florida.
The air outside this morning was notably cooler around the area as surface temperatures are 5-8 degrees Fahrenheit cooler across northern Utah and some 10-15 degrees cooler Fahrenheit across southern Utah.
103 PM EDT Mon Sep 9 2019 High pressure over southeast Canada will begin to slide off to the east today. Southerly flow on the backside of the high will bring a warming trend to the Ohio Valley. Mid level ridge over the MS Valley begins to build east into the region by evening. The ridge will continue to build across the region. The strengthening ridge will provide dry and mostly sunny conditions of Tuesday.
Temperatures reached the low to mid 90s, under mostly sunny skies. Similar weather is expected for Tuesday with highs in the low 90s.
Ridging will build over the area for the next few days, bringing warmer temperatures to the area.
425 PM EDT Mon Sep 9 2019 Aviation sections updated Ridging will build over the area for the next few days, bringing warmer temperatures to the area.
Tomorrow should be similar to day with the exception of the upper trough across the Pacific Northwest moving closer to the FA.
Elsewhere across the Mid-South sunny skies prevails with temps in the lower to mid 90s and heat index values from the upper 90s into the lower 100s.
332 PM EDT Mon Sep 9 2019 Updated at 330 PM EDT Mon Sep 9 2019 High pressure at the surface and aloft spells big bubble, no trouble for this forecast issuance. Overnight lows tonight will be in the lower to mid 60s - up a few degrees from this morning. With the warmer start to the day, temperatures will rise to the mid 90s by Tuesday afternoon under blue skies.
Broad upper low will lie offshore Washington today but is extending plenty of moisture eastward today. Showers and isolated thunderstorms will generally be widespread across Eastern Idaho tomorrow as moisture will be sustained throughout the region, and the upper low slowly tracks eastward.
will end up in the QPF min during the overnight with higher amounts over Lake Superior where the low level jet will be focused and to the south and east where there is more instability and more convective precipitation expected. The trailing weak cold front will sag slowly southward across the U. With the warm front just north of the area on Tuesday. The trend for the middle of this week will be to remain on the cooler side of normal, with cloud cover moderating temps. Strong winds off the surface will cause wind shear during the overnight hours when the low level jet is maximized. With low pressure approaching from the west tonight expect a short period of marginal south and southeasterly gales over eastern Lake Superior overnight tonight.
A southerly flow will develop on the backside of this high bringing a warming trend to the Ohio Valley.
211 PM CDT Mon Sep 9 2019 The main story continues to be very hot and humid wx this week under a building dome of high pressure.
Mid/upper level ridging will build in over the southeastern U. During the upcoming weekend the ridge will weaken some as an upper level low drifts west northwest across the peninsula from the Atlantic.
207 PM MDT Mon Sep 9 2019 Current surface map places low over central South Dakota, with trof extending back into eastern Montana. Upper trof currently over the western CONUS will slowly move into the plains for the middle of the week. with warm front/instability gradient setting up along the South Dakota/Nebraska border.
Tuesday will see swly flow aloft over the area ahead of the next upper trough.
A ridge of high pressure will continue to strengthen across the southeastern U. The combination of the strengthening ridge. Subsidence should be strong enough to minimized thunderstorms activity over the lower valley locations. Models in pretty good agreement overall, and depict us starting the period with an upper ridge holding over the eastern US. By the weekend an upper trough will be moving through the Great Lakes region and will flatten the ridge, allowing a weak and dying cold front to approach.
355 PM EDT Mon Sep 9 2019 19z sfc analysis shows weak high pressure in place through eastern Kentucky with a stalled frontal boundary to the south.
249 PM MDT Mon Sep 9 2019 A drier airmass behind the upper trough will keep showers at bay the rest of the afternoon and evening. Upper level winds will transition from westerly to more southwesterly as the next trough digs into the inter-mountain west. The trough strengthens and deepens as it moves over the Great Basin Tuesday.
In the upper levels a ridge is over the Southeast today. At the surface weak high pressure is over the region. Lows will be in the lower 70s.