Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
With winds expected to become light overnight, there is high confidence that temperatures will fall into the 34-37 degree range along the Highway 54 corridor as well as across portions of the eastern Ozarks (mainly north of Highway 60).
302 PM CDT Wed Apr 14 2021 Mostly cloudy and cool conditions will continue to dominate the region through Thursday, with the main change from recent days being even lighter winds as a low level ridge axis moves east across the Dakotas. Clouds across the southwest half of the forecast area may decrease for a time this evening, but with north-northeast low level flow ahead of the ridge axis, seems reasonable that the lower clouds over our northeast would expand back to the south and west later tonight into Thursday. In addition, will see higher clouds advancing into the western areas later Thursday ahead of trough axis pushing east out of the Rockies. However, even areas with more extensive cloud cover are expected to drop back below freezing again tonight, with lows largely mid 20s-around 30.
Offshore high pressure and a thermal trough along the Oregon coast will maintain gusty north winds and steep to very steep seas into early Thursday morning. Light returns on radar continue From Medicine Lake to the Warners as the low pressure center continues to spin over SE Oregon and N Nevada.
235 PM CDT Wed Apr 14 2021 Twin strong upper level lows remain in place over the central Rockies and Great Lakes region today leading to cold air advection filtering in over the eastern forecast area.
Between the two systems, weak ridging will build across the central CONUS. The ridging isn't particularly strong and there will be height falls out ahead of the advancing western system. Even with the ridging, temperatures will only be nominally warmer on Thursday with high temperatures in the mid 50s expected.
Skies once again feature a mix of sun and clouds as we remain sandwiched in between broad high pressure ridging to the south, and a 500 hPa low across the northern Great Lakes. Little to no change in the placement of the high pressure ridging and 500 hPa low is expected over the next 24-36 hours, meaning we can expect dry and quiet conditions to continue. For tonight, warmer temperatures are expected vs. To the south, where clearer skies are expected for longer with lighter winds, cooler temperatures in the low 30s are expected.
1015 AM CDT Wed Apr 14 2021 Low pressure in Upper Michigan slowly moving east.
These conditions won't last too long as an upper low over to the north will increase cloud coverage again tonight. As the upper low pushes further east late tomorrow, winds will diminish by tomorrow night.
Mean-layer ridging centered over Central America is lending to a broad expanse of subsidence over the Yucatan, Cuba, the Bahamas, and South Florida. At the surface, high pressure centered just to the east of Florida supports moderate to fresh, east to southeast breezes across the Florida Keys. The high pressure system to the east of Florida will slide to the east-southeast tonight and Thursday. Although the large scale subsidence will not be extreme, the low-level ridging will remain overtop the Florida Keys for the next several days.
Overnight low temperatures will be in the lower to mid 70s under mostly cloudy to overcast skies and with patchy fog.
116 PM PDT Wed Apr 14 2021 A closed low will bring a chance of scattered light showers to the high Sierra over the next day or so. This configuration has a weak closed low on the eastern side of the block over the Great Basin. This weak low has brought breezy conditions and cooler temperatures to the area. Also, the disturbance has brought a few light scattered showers over the higher elevations in the Yosemite area today. Weak troughing looks to remain over the Great Basin over the next several days with the blocky pattern in place.
A lull in convection will occur late this evening into the early overnight, but another complex of showers and thunderstorms will likely develop over south-central MS into southwestern AL in association with a southeastward moving cold front and move across the region during the overnight into morning hours Thursday. Elsewhere, temperatures should stay steady in the lower to middle 60's, with some small recovery possible into the middle and upper 60's along the immediate coast. Tonight, temperatures will not deviate much with lows expected to be in the lower 60's inland and middle 60's along the coast. If convection clears out quickly, temperatures could make it into the lower to middle 70's.
Overnight a weak trough drops south across the area, bringing an uptick in cloud cover and a slight chance for showers. Inland from Lake Michigan, highs look to top out in the lower 50s.
1204 PM CDT Wed Apr 14 2021 CIGs continue to hover around the low end VFR/MVFR category at PVW and LBB while CIGs have recently dropped to MVFR at CDS.
An upper level ridge will build in over the region on Thursday with northerly surface flow, so highs will be 5 to 10 degrees below normal, in the mid 50s to low 60s. Byrd Amplified upper level trough over the western U.
Diegan Chattanooga Airport, TN 50 67 44 66 49 / 60 0 0 10 20 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 49 64 40 64 46 / 60 0 0 0 10 Oak Ridge, TN 48 64 39 65 45 / 50 0 0 0 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 46 60 36 63 41 / 60 10 0 0 10.
858 AM PDT Wed Apr 14 2021 A low pressure system over the Great Basin will continue to lead to stronger onshore winds across southern California along with a fairly deep marine layer. An upper ridge will gradually build into the area from the northwest through the weekend. WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO Update: West winds will again strengthen late this afternoon and evening along the desert mountain slopes and across the lower deserts.
SR Chattanooga Airport, TN 76 50 67 44 66 / 50 60 0 0 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 74 49 64 40 64 / 60 60 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 72 48 64 39 65 / 70 50 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 73 46 60 36 63 / 70 60 10 0 0.
With high pressure over the area, and very low atmospheric moisture, the weather should remain quiet through at least Thursday evening. Tomorrow should see a warming trend, with the highs in the 80s almost everywhere across the area.
We should see a temporary break from rain later this afternoon through roughly midnight sans occasional drizzle as weak upper ridging moves overhead. The upper ridge will push to our east after midnight allowing for shower development once again. By tomorrow afternoon the upper low should finally push eastward and be situated over southern Wyoming/northwestern Colorado by 00Z tomorrow evening. Precip will being clearing from west to east as the upper low begins pushing eastward and as the Pacific front approaches eastern New Mexico.
Some clearing is expected by Thursday afternoon as the low pressure system moves away and high pressure begins to arrive from the Northern Plains.
Near the surface, high pressure continues to dominate the Northern Plains. Minimal precip chances return to portions of extreme western Kansas late tonight/early Thursday as short range models models indicate a closed upper low shifting slowly east through the Great Basin, setting up an increasingly difluent west-southwest flow aloft across the Western High Plains. Meanwhile, a series of weak H5 vort maxima are projected to begin ejecting out of the Southern Rockies downstream of the approaching trough axis and into the high plains of eastern Colorado/western Kansas late this evening into early Thursday morning. Look for lows ranging from the mid/upper 30s(F) in west central Kansas to the lower 40s(F) in south central Kansas. Mostly cloudy to overcast skies will likely hinder climbing temperatures Thursday resulting in highs only up into the mid/upper 40s(F) to the lower/mid 50s(F).
As high pressure begins to build into the area today through Thursday, mountain showers will begin to taper off and make way for more calm and warmer weather as an upper level ridge pushes into the Pacific Northwest through the early weekend.
The weather pattern and retro-grading low pressure system responsible for this recent snowfall continues to move generally from east to west across our region, which is quite unusual. This non-progressive and stalled weather pattern will persist in this manner until the closed, blocked, low pressure center over the Great Basin and inter-mountain west finally rejoins with the northern stream low pressure trough from northern Canada - which looks to be sometime on Thursday afternoon. As the closed low rejoins with the northern stream trough, models are showing chances of banded precipitation descending from Saskatchewan into northern and central Montana Thursday morning through Thursday night.
312 PM CDT Wed Apr 14 2021 The upper low this afternoon is centered over the Straights of Mackinac. Tonight, the cyclonic flow pushes off to the east and for the rest of the short term period, we'll be stuck in a no-man's land between an upper low over the eastern Great Lakes and another over the central Rockies.
300 PM MDT Wed Apr 14 2021 Stationary upper low continues to spin over the Great Basin this afternoon.
236 PM CDT Wed Apr 14 2021 236 PM CDT Diurnally-enhanced stratocumulus will continue to filter into the region this afternoon on the southern flanks of a broad upper low. Once again, the depth of the low-level saturated layer remains a question, with some degree of variability noted in afternoon model guidance. With the likelihood of additional cloud cover development tonight, as well as surface winds remaining up around 10 mph or so, have left a mention of frost out of our forecast grids, although some isolated spots will likely dip to around freezing tonight. Temperatures for Thursday will be similar to today, if not even a tough warmer. Carlaw 157 AM CDT With a pronounced upper-level blocking remaining locked in place across the eastern Pacific Ocean, we'll remain in a relatively dry and seasonably cool pattern for the foreseeable future.
Fri night however, an upper low/trough moving out of the plains will enter the picture, and by early Sat, a weak SFC/LL boundary will move into the region.
In addition, a cold front was located from Michigan thumb to extreme northwest Ohio to southern Illinois. This upper level low will move east dragging the surface cold front east across the area tonight.
255 PM CDT Wed Apr 14 2021 Key messages: - Widespread frost expected tonight as temperatures dip into the lower 30s.
Thursday night offers more ideal conditions in sky/wind, but temps may be a degree or two warmer, offsetting any inherent frost forming advantage, as after tonight's dip into the upper 30s (north) to around 40 south, we're back in the still seasonally cool 60s/40s into the weekend.
The surface cold front now just south of the TN river will also shift southeast. As a strong upper low shifts east through the Great Lakes, high pressure will be dropping into the northern Plains with a ridge axis south through the lower MS Valley. the lower clouds will clear off by mid to late morning, allowing for ample afternoon sunshines. Despite the cold advection, the advantage of longer daylight hours will help temperatures warm into the middle 60s for most areas (a bit cooler in southern TN/northeast AL higher elevations).
Temperatures are mostly in the 60s across the area and probably will not get much warmer this afternoon. One cold front has passed through the Midsouth with another reenforcing cold front moving into northern portions of the Midsouth. Tomorrow should be dry as a transient ridge shifts out of the Plains and over the Mississippi River valley.
1112 AM MDT Wed Apr 14 2021 Current surface analysis shows low pressure over the northern Great Lakes, with winds finally starting to ease up across the region. High pressure is located across southwest Canada. Upper low to the west will settle over the Great Basin today, then start to slowly move east tonight through late week.
As we go go from late tonight through early Thursday morning, another minor disturbance is forecast to zip eastward across the area, and this will incite another round of showers and storms for mainly along/south of the Highway 84 corridor. Expect much drier air to advect in for Thursday with temperatures rebounding to the lower 70s for much of the area by afternoon.
Cooler temperatures expected for Thursday and Thursday night.
The low is still tracking E/SE while the bulk of the precipitation is still progged to cross over central Wyoming.
117 PM EDT Wed Apr 14 2021 High pressure will move offshore today.
143 PM EDT Wed Apr 14 2021 A ridge will remain in place from the Plains to northern Ohio this afternoon. Meanwhile low pressure over the Upper Great Lakes will move to the eastern Great Lakes by tonight, pulling a cold front east across the area.
246 PM MDT Wed Apr 14 2021 A closed low pressure circulation over the Great Basin will continue to drift eastward over the Central Rockies, allowing winds across the Northern Rockies to diminish through Thursday. Temperatures will slowly warm through Thursday, as warm high pressure moves in from the west-northwest.
A large low pressure system over Nevada continues to produce windy conditions in the Magic Valley this morning.
1258 PM CDT Wed Apr 14 2021 Water vapor satellite this morning shows the persistent upper level low continues to spin over northeast Minnesota. The low has been drifting to the east and this will continue, allowing the low to become centered over northern lower Michigan tonight. Some short wave troughs will continue to rotate around the upper level low with the RAP suggesting the most impactful ones for the local area will move across early this morning and then again late this afternoon into the evening.
Temperatures will be at least a few degrees warmer than yesterday though, with highs in the 50s and 60s across the Permian Basin and Lea county, 70s west of the Pecos River, and 80s to lower 90s through the Rio Grande Valley. There looks to be a lull late this afternoon into this evening, before precipitation chances ramp up later tonight into Thursday ahead of a trough approaching from the west. Temperatures Thursday will be slightly warmer than today, though still below normal with highs ranging from the 60s across the Permian Basin to the upper 70s and 80s along and west of the Pecos River, and 90s through the Rio Grande Valley.
456 PM EDT Wed Apr 14 2021 High pressure will remain across the region through Thursday.
1226 PM MDT Wed Apr 14 2021 Overview: An atypical synoptic pattern -- characterized by westerly flow aloft over the southern CONUS (< 35N) and two broad upper level lows over the northern CONUS (>35N) -- will prevail in this period. on the western/subsident periphery of an upper level low over the Upper Great Lakes. and the far eastern periphery of an upper level low meandering slowly eastward from NV into UT. in advance of the aforementioned upper low. With surface temperatures/ wetbulbs anticipated to be above freezing. Thu-Fri night: Guidance is in general agreement that the approaching upper low will continue to meander in an eastward direction on Thu and Fri. with an associated lee cyclone progressing eastward from NM into the Southern Plains. the evolution of the lee cyclone.
247 PM MDT Wed Apr 14 2021 The upper low across the Great Basin will slowly move eastward through tonight and Thursday.
237 PM MDT Wed Apr 14 2021 Satellite imagery shows a very blocked pattern with two upper lows, one to our east over Upper Michigan and another over the northern great basin. Otherwise, not much shower activity today as mid levels have warmed since yesterday, and widespread low clouds are holding temps in the low-mid 30s.
Biggest concern through the remainder of the afternoon and evening will be the potential for isolated strong to severe thunderstorm activity for portions of the coastal plains where a moisture rich airmass is in place with dew points into the low 70s. The temperatures should remain cooler on Thursday as skies will be gloomy under mainly overcast skies.
Issued by National Weather Service Marquette MI 441 PM EDT Wed Apr 14 2021 Water vapor imagery and RAP analysis show an interesting pattern across the Lower 48 and vcnty. Mid-level low over the northern Great Lakes will drift se tonight/Thu, reaching the Lower Great Lakes by Thu evening. Areas of pcpn will continue to rotate around the low, affecting eastern Upper and northern Lower MI. Up at around 850mb, warmer air noted n and ne of the low over Quebec into adjacent northern Ontario will be pulled w and s toward the fcst area tonight, resulting in a zone of isentropic ascent as viewed on the 285-290k sfcs shifting s and w across eastern Upper and northern Lower MI (nw half in particular) tonight, then shifting e and se late tonight/Thu.
Twin strong upper level lows remain in place over the central Rockies and Great Lakes region today leading to cold air advection filtering in over the eastern forecast area.
Sfc cold front has slid just south of the I-20 Corridor attm and will continue to make steady progress southward through the remainder of the afternoon into the evening hours. Concerning temperatures, given the cool easterly to northeasterly winds at the surface, abundant cloud cover and precipitation chances through the short term, stayed on the cooler side of guidance tonight through Thursday Night which is a few degrees lower than NBM values.
Mostly cloudy skies tonight should keep overnight lows in the low 30s F on the plains and mid to upper 20s F in the mountains. Expect slightly cooler highs in the upper 30s to mid 40s F on the plains and low to mid 40s F in the mountains tomorrow under still cloudy skies and ongoing precipitation. Scattered showers will persist across the area, and snowfall will increase again in the high country tomorrow afternoon as the upper trough advances over Colorado. We have issued a Winter Weather Advisory for the Front Range Mountains and northern foothills beginning tomorrow afternoon, as moderate but persistent snowfall may lead to slick or slushy roads and difficult travel in the higher elevations.
A cold front will push across the Florida panhandle and approach northern Florida early in the day, then shifting southward through the day. The weakening cold front will push slowly south becoming stationary across central FL. Good boating conditions continue with high pressure remaining off the east coast of Florida. The high pressure will begin to shift south and eastward, away from the Florida peninsula, through the day on Thursday.
932 PM EDT Wed Apr 14 2021 Weak cold front hasn't pushed farther south this evening. Cooler temperatures expected for Thursday and Thursday night.
Temperatures are mostly in the 60s across the area and probably will not get much warmer this afternoon. One cold front has passed through the Midsouth with another reinforcing cold front moving into northern portions of the Midsouth. Tomorrow should be dry as a transient ridge shifts out of the Plains and over the Mississippi River valley.
A low pressure system continues over the great basin while high pressure builds over British Columbia. The low will continue east in the next few days as diminished ridging settles in the CWA.
628 PM CDT Wed Apr 14 2021 Mostly cloudy and cool conditions will continue to dominate the region through Thursday, with the main change from recent days being even lighter winds as a low level ridge axis moves east across the Dakotas. Clouds across the southwest half of the forecast area may decrease for a time this evening, but with north-northeast low level flow ahead of the ridge axis, seems reasonable that the lower clouds over our northeast would expand back to the south and west later tonight into Thursday. In addition, will see higher clouds advancing into the western areas later Thursday ahead of trough axis pushing east out of the Rockies. However, even areas with more extensive cloud cover are expected to drop back below freezing again tonight, with lows largely mid 20s-around 30.
746 PM EDT Wed Apr 14 2021 Water vapor imagery and RAP analysis show an interesting pattern across the Lower 48 and vcnty. Mid-level low over the northern Great Lakes will drift se tonight/Thu, reaching the Lower Great Lakes by Thu evening. Areas of pcpn will continue to rotate around the low, affecting eastern Upper and northern Lower MI. Up at around 850mb, warmer air noted n and ne of the low over Quebec into adjacent northern Ontario will be pulled w and s toward the fcst area tonight, resulting in a zone of isentropic ascent as viewed on the 285-290k sfcs shifting s and w across eastern Upper and northern Lower MI (nw half in particular) tonight, then shifting e and se late tonight/Thu.
818 PM CDT Wed Apr 14 2021 A cold front moving to the SE across the Tennessee Valley was bringing a notable cool change in area temperatures. After highs earlier in the low/mid 70s, 8 PM readings have cooled into the mid 50s to around 60. The cooler trend will continue, with lows by sunrise Thursday in the upper 40s to around 50. As a strong upper low shifts east through the Great Lakes, high pressure will be dropping into the northern Plains with a ridge axis south through the lower MS Valley. the lower clouds will clear off by mid to late morning, allowing for ample afternoon sunshines. Despite the cold advection, the advantage of longer daylight hours will help temperatures warm into the middle 60s for most areas (a bit cooler in southern TN/northeast AL higher elevations).
most of the thunder had been along/near the Red River in far Southeast Oklahoma from storms moving eastward out of the higher elevated instability field. There could be some breaks in the cloud cover toward sunrise across far Northeast Oklahoma and also far Northwest Arkansas that could allow for temps to fall a bit more into the lower 40s.
For 00Z Aviation discussion below The upper low this afternoon is centered over the Straights of Mackinac. Tonight, the cyclonic flow pushes off to the east and for the rest of the short term period, we'll be stuck in a no-man's land between an upper low over the eastern Great Lakes and another over the central Rockies.
632 PM CDT Wed Apr 14 2021 Key messages: - Widespread frost expected tonight as temperatures dip into the lower 30s.
Higher accumulation is anticipated south of the Twin Falls over the higher elevations.
We won't begin to see clearing until midday tomorrow with cooler temps expected across the entire area.
West-southwesterly flow aloft persists this afternoon as a weak blocking pattern continues and high pressure remains over the area. Return flow around the high will transport a little moisture into the region this evening. A closed low over northern Utah during the morning, will push to the east during the day.
Although the low pressure area will continue to move away on Thu, enough low level instability should exist for broken stratocumulus. Overnight a weak trough drops south across the area, bringing an uptick in cloud cover and a slight chance for showers. Inland from Lake Michigan, highs look to top out in the lower 50s.
550 PM MDT Wed Apr 14 2021 Stationary upper low continues to spin over the Great Basin this afternoon.
508 PM MDT Wed Apr 14 2021 The upper low across the Great Basin will slowly move eastward through tonight and Thursday.
Snow showers are expected into the evening and early tomorrow morning but expected to diminish through Thursday as upper low exits east and snow levels rise.
1034 PM MDT Wed Apr 14 2021 The upper low across the Great Basin will slowly move eastward through tonight and Thursday.
402 AM EDT Thu Apr 15 2021 Low pressure will pass to the southeast this afternoon.
A closed upper low over the Great Basin will continue moving east and weaken. The ridge portion of the block will set up along the west coast.
Otherwise, ridging influences will continue to build into mid state region from the west as today progresses.
Latest satellite imagery showed some clouds over the mountains over southern and eastern Oregon, associated with an upper low.