Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
The cold front will continue through the area tonight. Broken lower clouds will give way to clearing skies and lighter winds as a weak high pressure ridge will transit the area. Temperatures fall below freezing in all areas this evening and bottoming out in the upper teens north central Illinois to the mid 20s in the urban core. KMD 201 PM CST Sunday night will begin to see a return to more active weather through the start of the week as low pressure develops across the central CONUS, ahead of approaching longwave trough. With temps beginning around freezing, there remains some potential for freezing rain/drizzle through mid Monday morning. This window for any freezing precip will close later in the morning on Monday as temps steadily rise well into the 40s and possible around 50 degrees.
1147 PM EST Sat Dec 31 2016 A warm front will bring light snow to the north country this evening and tonight. A ridge of high pressure will build over the northeast Sunday and remain over the region through Monday, with fair and dry weather expected.
327 AM EST Sun Jan 1 2017 High pressure will provide a dry start to the new year.
344 AM EST Sun Jan 1 2017 Warm front pushes northeast Sunday night into Monday night.
A round of rain is expected Monday afternoon through Monday night and could be preceded by a brief period of freezing rain.
Cold front is sweeping through Central Illinois this afternoon, with winds coming around to more northwesterly and tempering the diurnal swing for the Midwest. the weather should remain quiet and cooler, with lows dropping into the 20s. Models continue to mix in enough dry air to further erode the clouds as the high pressure ridge axis drifts across the region overnight. At the same time, the upper level pattern will be one of a flat trough/zonal type pattern over most of the US. Low pressure developing in the Plains will cause our SE winds to gradually increase tomorrow evening.
1232 AM EST Sun Jan 1 2017 High pressure will provide a dry start to the new year.
1132 PM CST Sat Dec 31 2016 High pressure will move across the area tonight keeping the weather quiet overnight. A weak upper level disturbance will also be moving across the area Sunday but forecast soundings show the lower levels of the atmosphere remaining dry. A stronger upper level wave will move across the region Monday and warm/moist advection ahead of it should help saturate the lower levels.
253 AM EST Sun Jan 1 2017 A weak cold front will move east across the state early this morning. A weak ridge of high pressure will build over our region this aft.
Temperatures are currently in the lower to middle 50s under mostly sunny skies. Lows tonight will drop into the upper 20s to the lower 30s. An upper level low currently digging south across the west coast will continue to spread south tonight then will kick east Sunday and open up as a trough as it moves towards/through the region Monday. A warmer air mass will spread northward into the area Monday as southerly flow occurs ahead of the system allowing highs to top out around the 60 degree mark.
With so much dry air in the lower 10kft, should see low precipitation amounts tonight. /issued 522 PM CST Sat Dec 31 2016/ /00Z TAFS/ A cold front stretched from Far West Texas to Robert Lee to Ballinger to just south of Coleman. A weak cold front has moved just south of I-20 at 3 PM and is expected to weaken and dissipate overnight.
Cold front remains well northwest and with rainshowers expected to decrease late this evening. The widespread light rainshower activity, out ahead of an approaching cold front, has decreased in coverage and intensity. Otw, the aforementioned boundary will stall west of the area and thus, the low clouds and reduced vsbys will continue through the taf pd.
The wave over the southern rockies will eject northeastward across the central Plains Sunday, while the upstream upper low digs into northern Mexico. Upper troughing will continue to carve out/deepen over the northwest CONUS Sunday into Monday. This should provide a more southerly track to the ejecting California upper low, eastward across the southern Plains which will keep the deeper Gulf moisture to the south of Kansas. Temperatures will become nearly steady or slowly rise Sunday night (remaining above freezing).
418 AM EST Sun Jan 1 2017 Partly sunny skies and high temperatures in the thirties are expected today as high pressure resides over the area. Cold front is currently moving through the western Catskills and northeast Pennsylvania. Initially the surface temperatures will be cold enough for precipitation to fall as either light freezing rain or sleet then as the boundary layer warms later Monday the activity will change to light rain. Latest model guidance shows temperatures at the surface warming slightly slower than previous guidance so in the normally cooler areas in the eastern forecast area, western Catskills and Oneida County, this spotty wintry mix could continue well into the afternoon.
353 AM EST Sun Jan 1 2017 Low pressure will move east of the region today. High pressure will build in on Monday.
Expect this to continue through Sunday with temperatures a little warmer across the CWA Sunday. Cold front sags south across the CWA Sunday night with snow showers increasing out west ahead of upper trough that will settle over the Pacific northwest. generally in the 1-4 inch range over lower elevations there and about 6-9 inches over the higher mtns.
The low itself has some rather unstable lapse rates with it: between 7.
441 AM EST Sun Jan 1 2017 High pressure builds across the region today into Monday.
348 AM EST Sun Jan 1 2017 High pressure briefly builds over the region today.
330 AM EST Sun Jan 1 2017 High pressure builds across the region today into Monday.
Happy New Year! Upper level low near LA moving will move eastward through the night and into Sunday.
1154 PM EST Sat Dec 31 2016 A cold front will move across the forecast area this evening. High pressure over the Central Plains will track across the lower lakes Sunday and move off the Mid Atlantic Coast Sunday night.
The upper low diving down the southern California Coast was producing broad difluence over southern Nevada and northwest Arizona and isolated light showers were occurring this evening, but coverage has been getting more sparse on radar. Low clouds oriented roughly northwest to southeast over the middle of the CWA were stubbornly hanging on and keeping temperatures down along the Highway 95 corridor. Similar to yesterday, most of the high resolution models keep the precip associated with the incoming storm south of Las Vegas overnight. The models continue their overnight trend of retrograding all or a piece of this low offshore as the southern part of a Rex block by midweek, which is a dramatic shift from yesterday.
424 AM EST Sun Jan 1 2017 A weak cold front will move east across the state early this morning. A weak ridge of high pressure will build over our region this aft.
351 AM EST Sun Jan 1 2017 High pressure will provide a dry start to the new year.
Widespread rain is expected Sunday and Monday as a warm front advances northward into the region. There will still be some saturating of the lower levels that must take place this evening into the overnight hours so highest pops will be after 06z and increase from west to east. The front is expected to lift north across the area as a warm front late Monday.
Lows tonight fall below freezing in the evening and will be in the low/middle 20s by the midnight hour. Model differences on whether or not low levels can saturate enough to reach the ground, and if so, if they can do so early enough to bring just a low end chance for freezing drizzle out in the western counties. So have just a few hours mid morning west of MHK where light freezing drizzle could occur. North central areas could still see patchy freezing drizzle mixed in with temperatures near the freezing mark. During the day on Monday, the southern upper trough tracks over Texas, while ample mid level lift crosses the CWA. Unfortunately, forecast soundings still exhibit the meager moisture focused only in the lowest 900 mb so will continue the mention of drizzle off and on through mid morning.
Modest high pressure is building in across Missouri and Illinois. Aloft, a short wave trough is rotating towards New England, with troughing and a more defined split flow shown west of the Mississippi. Lows tonight will not be much lower than the highs, with mid to upper 40s expected. On Monday, southeast winds will engage out ahead of developing low pressure to our southwest.
Did add a mention of fog tomorrow behind the cold front. The cold front will produce a subtle wind shift to the northwest then north tonight. For tonight through Sunday, weak cold air advection ensues with the passage of the aforementioned cold front. A closed upper low develops over Washington/Oregon Sunday, as a southwest flow begins into North Dakota.
1224 AM EST Sun Jan 1 2017 Light showers out ahead of an approaching cold front will continue to decrease in intensity/coverage over the next few hours.
1253 AM EST Sun Jan 1 2017 A weak cold front crosses overnight. Warm front pushes northeast Sunday night into Monday night.
An upper level low in northwest WA is moving southeast. Winds will increase from the north behind a cold front mainly across Washington on Sunday afternoon. Due to the high snow ratio snow amounts were increased. The low pressure system moves into our area Sunday and remains nearly stationary and the snow showers will persist into Monday when bitter cold air entrenches the entire region into Monday evening.
MVFR cigs will develop by late morning/early afternoon as a trough passes through Kansas and Oklahoma. Drier air continues to filter into the region this evening behind cold front.
/Issued 334 PM CST Sat Dec 31 2016/ An upper trough will track east across the Four Corners region and southern Rockies tonight. Brief short wave ridging will take place on New Years Day but then another southern stream upper trough should pass just south of the Panhandles Sunday night.
639 AM CDT MON JUL 4 2016 12Z TAF Cycle A passing upper trough today across the Panhandles will allow for some isolated convection mainly across the southeastern Texas Panhandle this morning. Subsidence behind the departing upper trough will lead to VFR conditions at all three TAF sites today through tonight. Another upper trough is expected to track out of the central and southern Rockies by 06Z Tuesday and could possibly bring some convection to the Dalhart TAF site between 00Z and 06Z Tuesday. Regarding the rest of this week, the weather pattern will be dominated by a broad ridge of high pressure extending from the Bahamas westward to northern Mexico.
1041 AM EDT MON JUL 4 2016 A weak, upper level area of low pressure will bring clouds and eventually showers and thunderstorms to parts of northeast Pennsylvania and the southern border of New York tonight. Drier air will filter in behind the low Tuesday, but an isolated shower or thunderstorm cannot be ruled out. Attm, showers may have isolated lightning, but guidance shows the brunt of the theta-e ridge is further south than previously thought, thus frequent lightning activity is now expected further south as well. The pattern will consist of a very large ridge which encompass much of the southern CONUS, with zonal flow dominating over the northeast and most of the northern CONUS. Temps will be warm and slightly above the seasonal norm as we will be just along the outer edge of the ridge.
716 AM EDT MON JUL 4 2016 A warm front will lift north across the region today. Low pressure will track across the area tonight. High pressure will build in Tuesday. Warm front stretching across Kentucky early this morning is forecast to lift north through the area this morning. A weak cold front will move east of the area early Tuesday. High pressure will briefly build in during the day and then move off to the east Tuesday night.
(Issued 259 AM CDT MON JUL 4 2016) Latest water vapor imagery shows a broad upper level trough over the central CONUS, with a broad upper ridge over the Desert Southwest. The subtropical ridge will begin to break down and shift eastward today, as the upper trough moves east as well. This may also stabilize the atmosphere prior to the upper trough moving into the region. Forecast soundings show the low level inversion eroding by 15Z. The latest guidance shows low and mid level flow becoming zonal during the late morning hours, with most of the precip exiting by 18z as the subtropical ridge builds northward across the TN Valley once again. High pressure will then remain over the area through the remainder of the forecast period.
/Issued 327 AM EDT MON JUL 4 2016/ Independence Day will start out quite muggy as majority of CWA have dewpoints in the low 70s this morning.
1118 AM EDT MON JUL 4 2016 Low pressure will return rain chances to the Upper Ohio region this afternoon and Tuesday. Have trended forecast toward the slightly more suppressed 14Z HRRR model solution through the night, keeping highest pops across the south into the southeast ridges, with only isolated to scattered showers far north. The main trough axis will be just east of the area shortly after dawn on Tuesday.
Still on track for scattered thunderstorms over the higher terrain with isolated storms spreading onto the plains. Weak upper level ridging will continue over Colorado today with light westerly flow aloft. Surface pressure gradients across the state are expected to remain weak with a little bit of lee troughing evident over the northeast plains. Ahead of the afternoon shower activity, high temperatures across the plains should be a few degrees warmer than yesterday, in the lower and mid 90s.
Westerly flow across the southwest will bring drier and warmer conditions through the week with only a slight chance of afternoon showers and thunderstorms over the White Mountains. Over the coming week high pressure will remain centered over Texas with a low pressure system strengthening over the Pacific Northwest. Lingering moisture will produce a slight chance of afternoon showers and thunderstorms, mainly confined to the higher terrain of eastern Arizona. Only a slight chance of afternoon thunderstorms exists over the higher terrain of eastern Arizona today.
1116 AM EDT MON JUL 4 2016 Low pressure will return rain chances to the Upper Ohio region this afternoon and Tuesday. Have trended forecast toward the slightly more suppressed 14Z HRRR model solution through the night, keeping highest pops across the south into the southeast ridges, with only isolated to scattered showers far north. The main trough axis will be just east of the area shortly after dawn on Tuesday.
This lines up fairly well with where weak surface ridging sets up and believe that the westerly component over mainly South Dakota will help erode the stratus there. An area of low pressure over central SD will push eastward through the day, as a cold front drops into the northern portions of the CWA by afternoon. Midlevel temperatures are progged to be in the lower teens c in the afternoon, so think it will be hard to get any convection going through much of the day in a capped atmosphere.
1047 AM EDT MON JUL 4 2016 A warm front will lift north across the region today. Low pressure will track across the area tonight. High pressure will then build in Tuesday. Warm front continues to slowly lift north this morning with winds turning from the south across northern Kentucky. Later this afternoon a wedge of positive vorticity will approach the area from Illinois and appears to be what the high res models are keying off of. Warm front stretching across Kentucky early this morning is forecast to lift north through the area this morning. A weak cold front will move east of the area early Tuesday. High pressure will briefly build in during the day and then move off to the east Tuesday night.
Current temperatures are running a little warmer than 24 hrs ago and if the trend holds through the afternoon, Las Vegas would reach 105 or 106 which is slightly above normal. There will be some flat cumulus over the higher terrain of Lincoln, Clark and Mohave Counties today making for VFR conditions as drier air continues to spread into the region.
Winds have diminished this morning to less than 10 knots, which will result in LLWS concerns until the low level jet mixes out in a few hours. Weak trough located north of the area will continue to move east today with ridge building across South Texas.
Light to moderate southwesterly winds were observed in the lower levels, light west winds in the mid levels, and light to moderate easterly flow in the upper levels.
Morning Update: generally dry conditions today as a ridge exits to the east. GAH Previous Short Term Discussion: The upper flow pattern consists of an upper trough currently located over the Canadian Rockies of British Columbia and Alberta and high pressure over the Desert Southwest. The stationary boundary, between the hot air- mass to the south and the cooler air-mass to the north, will be south of the local area. Today the descending trough sends a cold front east across our area for slightly cooler temperature, close to seasonal norms. Most of the trough energy remains north in Canada, so again with relatively stable conditions, expect a mostly dry day.
917 AM EDT MON JUL 4 2016 High pressure builds today. A cold front will cross the region later Tuesday and stall.
The highest chances will be across interior and West Coast sections. An upper level low over cuba will continue to move to the west northwest today and into the southern Gulf of Mexico tonight, as an ridge of high pressure over the western Atlantic waters strengthens and builds into Central Florida.
830 AM EDT MON JUL 4 2016 Low pressure will return rain chances to the Upper Ohio region this afternoon and Tuesday. The main trough axis will be just east of the area shortly after dawn on Tuesday.
Westerly flow aloft prevails across the Intermountain West this morning, sandwiched between an upper low spinning over the Canadian Rockies, and an elongated mid level ridge situated near the US/Mexican border. A weak surface front/pressure trough, associated with a wave rotating through the Pacific Northwest around the base of the Canadian low, has pushed into northwest Utah and will remain stalled or slowly retreat through the day. However, temperatures just above 500mb have warmed considerably over the last 12-24 hours as evidenced in the 12Z KSLC sounding, This warmer air aloft will greatly limit the depth of instability this afternoon and significantly stunt updraft growth.
1038 AM EDT MON JUL 4 2016 A stationary front to our south will gradually work north into central Indiana today as a wave of low pressure rides along the front. This may bring a few showers to locations south of the highway 24 corridor today into this evening. Look for warmer temperatures in the 80s on Tuesday with partly to mostly sunny skies. Will introduce at least patchy drizzle in southern areas as this has been somewhat more predominate given the low cigs and weak lift. sfc analysis early this morning shows low pressure over southwest MO with a quasi-stationary front extending northeast through southern Illinois and Indiana. This low is expected to ride northeast along boundary today driven by a convectively enhanced short wave. Weak area of high pressure to move in Tuesday with dry conditions into Tuesday evening.
1211 PM EDT MON JUL 4 2016 High pressure builds today. A cold front will cross the region later Tuesday and stall.
With the Bermuda Ridge axis suppressed to our south we will see a west-southwest synoptic flow pattern. Some widely scattered convection is possible mainly east of trail Ridge moving from the WSW to ENE at 10 to 15 mph.
Beyond Tuesday, hot and humid conditions will continue through the remainder of the work week as ridging will settle in across the southern CONUS.
So while boundary generated convection should be slightly delayed by the warm 700mb temps, a few cells could become quite strong again due to the cooler temps aloft. A shifting north of the low level high pressure ridge will favor a little earlier sea breeze formation for the Treasure coast.
1103 AM EDT MON JUL 4 2016 A pressure ridge will extend from the Atlantic westward into the northern Gulf of Mexico through the week. A weak pressure trough will linger near the forecast area. Flat upper ridging will continue across the Southeast today. Weak lee-side troughing will provide additional convergence across central SC into eastern GA. Although the trough appears weaker than yesterday and may provide less forcing. Flat ridging aloft will remain across the region, while the center of the upper ridge remains off the southeastern coast tonight into tuesday.
We have some deep SW flow still 20-40kts in the low levels on our morning sounding and 88D VAD. Beyond Tuesday, hot and humid conditions will continue through the remainder of the work week as ridging will settle in across the southern CONUS.
To our north, the active west to east storm track continues with mid level ridging still dominant across the far southern CONUS. By this evening, a trough will amplify to our west, allowing that main storm track to dip southward.
500 AM PDT MON JUL 4 2016 New Aviation Discussion A weak upper level trough across the West Coast will bring near to slightly below normal temperatures to most of the region through the weekend.
Meanwhile, geostationary satellite moisture channel animations reveal a weakening (and shallow) tropical upper- tropospheric trough (TUTT) cell ambling westward over central Cuba. In addition, weak ridging at low levels will limit the number of available mesoscale convergence zones (lifting sources) in moderate east-southeast flow. A high pressure cell will build gradually westward, from the western North Atlantic, to central Florida, through this afternoon.
Weak inverted trough will provide a focus for patchy fog or possibly an MVFR ceiling overnight tonight as the better upstream moisture shifts across the area. Trough passage will veer wind to the southwest by Tuesday morning.
The activity has just about ended for now but will likely redevelop this afternoon just north of a northward moving warm front that lies across the northeast part of the forecast area. With dew points around 70 and differential heating this afternoon near the warm front some storms may become strong to severe with possible damaging wind gusts mainly along and north of the warm front which would be extreme northeast TN and southwest Virginia. Chattanooga Airport, TN 96 74 89 74 / 30 60 60 40 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 92 73 86 71 / 30 60 60 40 Oak Ridge, TN 91 72 86 72 / 40 70 60 40 Tri Cities Airport, TN 88 70 85 67 / 50 60 60 40.
142 AM EDT TUE JUN 14 2016 Clouds will give way to clearing skies overnight as high pressure builds toward the area from southeastern Canada.
309 AM EDT TUE JUN 14 2016 Mostly clear skies are expected for the next couple of days as high pressure sits over the northeast.
/issued 355 AM CDT TUE JUN 14 2016/ WV imagery shows a developing upper ridge over Texas, extending up the MS valley and leaving West Texas and Southeast New Mexico under SW flow aloft. The upper ridge is forecast to remain over the eastern half of Texas through most of the workweek, leaving West Texas and Southeast New Mexico under SW flow aloft.
214 AM EDT TUE JUN 14 2016 Low pressure over New Brunswick will slowly move east across the Gulf of Saint Lawrence through Wednesday. A ridge of high pressure will move in late in the week. Low pressure over the Maritimes will gradually continue to move east and away today. Moisture wrapping around the low will continue to bring mostly cloudy conditions across the area.
612 AM EDT TUE JUN 14 2016 High pressure over the eastern lakes will move off the east coast Wednesday. allowing a warm front to lift across the forecast area.