Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
511 AM CST Sun Dec 5 2021 Key Messages: - Warmer today with a few sprinkles or light showers moving through. This will be tempered some by the cloud cover, both the low cloud moving north, and the thicker cirrus across northern Missouri. This system will push a strong cold front southward through the area. The cold advection will continue through the day Monday with highs only reaching the low to mid 30s for most areas.
302 AM CST Sun Dec 5 2021 Key Messages: - Warmer today with a few sprinkles or light showers moving through. This will be tempered some by the cloud cover, both the low cloud moving north, and the thicker cirrus across northern Missouri. This system will push a strong cold front southward through the area. The cold advection will continue through the day Monday with highs only reaching the low to mid 30s for most areas.
A trailing cold front associated with this low will drop down into our northwest toward dawn Monday, then move rapidly east and out of the picture around midday.
The upper level ridge that brought the quiet weather has pushed off west into the eastern Pacific. Today, northwest flow will usher in some cooler air, though the weather will remain dry.
Lingering light snow and patchy blowing snow today, wind chill Patchy blowing snow and light snow at times are expected over NE Montana for today with the departing low pressure system. Canadian high pressure will slide southeast allowing for clearing skies and strong radiational cooling with the fresh snow cover. Then, ensembles point to upper ridging and a warm up for the middle of the week. At this time, uncertainty exists, particularly for the lower elevations, for just how much mixing will occur and whether current guidance reflects the new snow cover in place.
The accompanying large upper trough will amplify as it drops southeast into the eastern CONUS, providing upper level support for precip, mainly accompanying the system's cold front in our area. Winds fields will strengthen as the system deepens and the cold front approaches. This will advect low level mild/moist air (by December standards) north and northeast along and ahead of the cold front.
For today, retained a slight chc for rain or snow over the Pine Ridge and northwest Sandhills.
Temperatures were in the upper 20s north to the lower 30s south. As the snow ends, there could be some drizzle (far south) and freezing drizzle that may add a thin layer of ice to treated roads. Upper flow then turns southwesterly by the end of the upcoming week into the weekend, as an upper trough deepens across western CONUS.
(Tonight) Cold front currently across northern KS will move into northeast OK shortly after 00Z, and short-term guidance remains consistent with initial storm development along the boundary around 02-03Z. This activity will continue to organize along the advancing cold front through the evening, with storms likely exiting the forecast toward 09Z.
The severe threat increasing this evening as the low level jet ramps up which increase the low level helicity. Rain could be heavy at times with PWAT values around the 95th percentile, but flooding shouldn't be an issue with the progressive nature of the cold front.
Some noticeable changes will occur on Monday as a strong cold front moves in from the north. On the high end, we could see a few amounts approach 1/2" along Highway 77. Gusty north winds will persist well into the afternoon and evening hours behind the cold front. However, cloud cover should help to keep temperatures from dropping below freezing.
(This evening through Monday) Very warm and slightly breezy conditions have developed this afternoon ahead of an approaching cold front, now nearing central KS.
Winds will decrease early this evening and turn w-nw overnight in advance of a strong cold front that will move thru HOB around 10Z and FST near 15Z. To the north, a sharp cold front will plow through the Panhandle with a significant airmass change expected in wake of the front. Current timing of the cold front is reaching the northern most portion of the forecast area by 07z before blowing right through the I-20 corridor b/w 10- 12z Monday AM. 850mb temps will fall about 15-18 degrees post front, which will send temps into the 30s and 40s for the AM with only a slight rebound of 10-15 degrees max for the high.
For tonight, a strong cold front front will push south across at least our northern/central counties and into the southern counties overnight.
Cold front has almost moved through forecast area.
Temperatures across most of the area have climbed into the low 60s at of 10 am.
Any isolated convection this afternoon will remain N of the TXK/ELD terminals, and thus have dropped VCTS mention here given the low confidence affecting these terminals attm. MVFR cigs should eventually develop by mid to late evening across E TX/N LA, before developing/spreading NNE across SW AR by/shortly after 06Z ahead of a cold front that will shift SE across SE OK and Wrn AR. /This Afternoon/ The mid-morning sfc analysis indicates that a warm front extends from portions of extreme SE OK into the Nrn sections of SW into Cntrl AR, roughly along a line from E of a Hugo, across Nrn McCurtain County, to MEZ/HOT, to N of a PBF line.
/This Afternoon/ The mid-morning sfc analysis indicates that a warm front extends from portions of extreme SE OK into the Nrn sections of SW into Cntrl AR, roughly along a line from E of a Hugo, across Nrn McCurtain County, to MEZ/HOT, to N of a PBF line. Kept VCSH or VCTS going through much of the day at the TXK and ELD terminals but the main show will be coming late tonight in the from of a strong cold front and strong to severe thunderstorms.
A cold front will sweep across the CWA through the day tomorrow (Monday) with attendant PWATs just over an inch (anomalies ranging from +1.
Midday water vapor satellite imagery depicts a strong upper level trough digging into the northern plains, and this feature is responsible for the cold front in far northern KS that will continue southward and pass through our area later this afternoon and evening. These winds will also contribute to strong cold advection, and temperatures will drop well below freezing through the overnight period with lows reaching the low teens in our northwest zones to the upper 20s in our southeast zones. Much cooler (normal for December finally) air is ushered by a pipeline of high pressure from the western Canadian Provinces for Monday. NBM at this point is forecasting highs only in the 30s and 40s before the progressive pattern allows another low level jet to develop over southeast Kansas Monday night, drawing warmer downslope air eastward again.
Ridging will be over the area for the beginning of the work week with highs reaching 80 degrees each afternoon.
1030 AM EST Sun Dec 5 2021 A weak area of low altitude cyclonic turning accompanied by areas of cloudiness and a few showers was moving westward south of the middle Keys, otherwise skies were mostly sunny with temperatures warming into the lower to mid 70s with dewpoints a bit higher than in previous mornings, now in the upper 60s to around 70. Surface ridging extended from the western North Atlantic through north Florida, with a weak undulation along its southern periphery just generally in the Straits west of Andros Island. Aloft, the extension of the ridge was not as detectable across north Florida, limited to the Atlantic waters.
(This evening through Monday) Cooler temperatures are on the way as a fairly strong cold front moves through the area late tonight and early Monday morning. Lows tonight will be in the 40s, with highs Monday ranging from the lower 50s across the Big Country, to the upper 50s and lower 60s along the I-10 corridor.
A cold front has moved through the region and mixed out the inversion in the lower valleys. Updated the forecast to account for the new precipitation totals and adjusted probability of precipitation for the lower Treasure Valley and Baker County.
This is in response to a deepening low pressure moving east through MN and increasing cold air advection, which will be strongest from about 21z through 3z. If confidence increases may need to add some light snow in southwest MN early Monday morning too as the secondary cold front brings in a period of deep dendritic temperatures and a weak mid level wave to aid with a little weak lift. Monday will prove to be the coldest day of the season and breezy to begin, but surface ridging from the west will build into the area and allow winds to decrease through the day.
A cold front moves through the northern 2/3rds of the area 12-18z and will bring showers/thunderstorms and have prevailed the TAF with SHRA/TSRA with the FROPA.
1141 AM CST Sun Dec 5 2021 Key Messages: - Warmer today with a few sprinkles or light showers moving through. This will be tempered some by the cloud cover, both the low cloud moving north, and the thicker cirrus across northern Missouri. This system will push a strong cold front southward through the area. The cold advection will continue through the day Monday with highs only reaching the low to mid 30s for most areas.
Interestingly, some of the high- res model solutions have picked up on the eventual wind convergence out of this event, and are trying to develop a weak line of precipitation for the evening. Once the winds drop off, conditions should be uneventful, albeit cooler, until during the day Monday.
1134 AM MST Sun Dec 5 2021 The high wind warning has been cancelled for much of northeast Wyoming and the higher Black Hills. A cold airmass and strong northwesterly winds will overspread the region today behind the cold front.
High pressure aloft and earlier morning clearing will bring slight warming today and Monday.
233 PM CST Sun Dec 5 2021 Warm, breezy and dry westerly surface winds (20-30mph) will persist through the afternoon and into the evening hours before a strong dry cold front, currently in central Kansas, arrives later tonight. An upper level closed low currently over northwest old Mexico will stall/slightly retrograde overnight as the surface cold front pushes south across West Texas.
Evaporative cooling has delayed the changeover across much of the forecast area but warm advection aloft and at the surface has resulted in surface temperatures above freezing across the central and southern zones, mitigating any travel impacts. The thermal trough is sharp and narrow and moves east by the evening with the snow showers diminishing.
Thereafter, a change in the weather pattern will result in cooler temperatures, periods of gusty winds and the potential for some precipitation.
503 PM MST Sun Dec 5 2021 Winds will continue to decrease into this evening, so the High Wind Warning has been allowed to expire. Latest upper level analysis has broad trof across the northern Plains with trof axis moving through the Dakotas at the moment. At the surface, low pressure and associated cold front have shifted well to the east and south, with Canadian high pressure moving into the area quickly. Upper trof axis will shift east quickly overnight, with surface pressure gradient slowly relaxing.
528 PM CST Sun Dec 5 2021 (Tonight) Cold front currently across northern KS will move into northeast OK shortly after 00Z, and short-term guidance remains consistent with initial storm development along the boundary around 02-03Z. This activity will continue to organize along the advancing cold front through the evening, with storms likely exiting the forecast toward 09Z.
Cyclonic flow around the trough accounting for the southerly winds and warmer temperatures today. The cold front associated with this air mass is currently nosing into far NW Missouri right now and will continue to advance at a good clip south and east through the afternoon and evening, bringing a stout shift in wind direction from the northwest.
Only light snowfall accumulations are expected over the higher terrain.
300 PM MST Sun Dec 5 2021 Cold front racing southward through the plains of northeast Colorado this afternoon, as upper level trough over the nrn plains heads into the Great Lakes. For this evening, cold front will continue to drop quickly southward through the plains, driven by large (5mb/3hr) surface pressure rises over ern WY and nern CO. On Monday, much cooler conditions area-wide in the wake of the cold front, and a few spots near the Palmer Divide may stay only in the 30s as clouds linger into early afternoon. Winds will be lighter than Sun as most locations, though with lee trough deepening along I-25 in the afternoon, south winds over the eastern plains toward the KS border will likely gust 20-30 mph in the afternoon.
High Pressure builds over the area late tonight and Monday. It will be mostly dry with Highs Monday struggling to climb above zero northeast, to the lower 20s southwest.
351 PM MST Sun Dec 5 2021 Latest upper level analysis has broad trof across the northern Plains with trof axis moving through the Dakotas at the moment. At the surface, low pressure and associated cold front have shifted well to the east and south, with Canadian high pressure moving into the area quickly. Upper trof axis will shift east quickly overnight, with surface pressure gradient slowly relaxing.
324 PM CST Sun Dec 5 2021 Low pressure at 20z east of Fargo and just southwest of Detroit Lakes moving east. Upper low just east of Grand Forks. There will continue to be light snow around the upper low as it moves east with light snow ending in RRV by mid evening and in the far east after midnight.
906 PM EST Sun Dec 5 2021 Isolated to scattered showers associated with a weak inverted trough off the east coast of FL will continue to move northward, mostly over the waters this evening. It will not be as cool tonight as it has been, with lows in the low to mid 60s, except upper 50s northwest of I-4. Isolated to scattered showers will continue to lift northward over the waters this evening and even into the overnight, as a weak inverted trough just off the east coast of FL gradually breaks down. E/NE winds around 5-10 knots to the northwest of the trough axis become E/SE 10-15 knots offshore of Brevard and across the Treasure Coast waters this evening.
expect windy/gusty conditions to continue as a tight pressure gradient remains across the local area behind the aforementioned cold front. with forecast highs expected to only climb to within a few degrees either side of freezing across the majority of the local area.
High pressure will remain over the area tonight and Monday before an approaching frontal system moves into the region on Monday night.
North to northwest flow aloft will usher in a cooler airmass for the short term. Overnight low temperatures will easily drop into the single digits across the Pine Ridge region and into the mid-teens across southwest and north central Nebraska tonight. Low temperatures are currently forecasted to be in the mid teens to low 20s on Monday night which is slightly warmer than guidance. However, increasing cloud cover overnight in advance of a weak trough will contribute to slightly warmer temperatures across the region.
558 PM CST Sun Dec 5 2021 A cold front will cross the region tonight and bring a chance of showers and a few thunderstorms.
515 PM CST Sun Dec 5 2021 (This evening through Monday) Cooler temperatures are on the way as a fairly strong cold front moves through the area late tonight and early Monday morning. Lows tonight will be in the 40s, with highs Monday ranging from the lower 50s across the Big Country, to the upper 50s and lower 60s along the I-10 corridor.
Additional precipitation chances and cooler temperatures expected late week. Central Valley stratus continues to break up early this afternoon with blue skies beginning to peak out through the low cloud cover.
The cold front is expected to move through South Texas during the afternoon hours tomorrow.
An area of low pressure across southeast ND and northwest MN this afternoon will continue to track eastward across MN tonight.
232 PM MST Sun Dec 5 2021 Latest upper level analysis has broad trof across the northern Plains with trof axis moving through the Dakotas at the moment. At the surface, low pressure and associated cold front have shifted well to the east and south, with Canadian high pressure moving into the area quickly. Upper trof axis will shift east quickly overnight, with surface pressure gradient slowly relaxing.
High pressure over New England extending into the region will shift eastward into the Atlantic shifting the flow to south- southeast.
We expect a lull in the action for the next few hours before a cold front starts to move into the region later on tonight.
550 PM CST Sun Dec 5 2021 (This evening through Monday) Very warm and slightly breezy conditions have developed this afternoon ahead of an approaching cold front, now nearing central KS.
200 PM PST Sun Dec 5 2021 High pressure aloft will bring slight warming this afternoon and Monday with only patchy low clouds and fog tonight and Monday morning.
845 PM EST Sun Dec 5 2021 High pressure is ridging across the area from the Atlantic. High pressure will continue for the next few days with fog remaining the only issue of concern. High pressure will be in place across the waters through the period, with no headlines expected through the period.
(Today) The cold front has cleared all except the far southeastern corner of the forecast area.
1112 PM CST Sun Dec 5 2021 Updated aviation section for 06z taf issuance Our warm advection zone has some thunder in scattered convection, mainly within the best ribbon of an isodrosothermal nose of 60F surface dew points, which is coincident with a 325-330K theta-e ridge/moisture flux convergence. Namely 30-40 kts of bulk shear in the lower 3 KM between 00z-06z, and 200-300 units of helicity within an area of greater than 300 J/KG MLCAPE as the cold front makes its approach.
Individual segments of the line are moving to the east while the overall motion is to the ESE as a cold front works through the region. The last of the convection associated with the advancing cold front will be exit our southeast counties around 15z this morning. Temperatures will follow a bit of a non-diurnal trend today, especially in the southeast counties, but expect all locations to have temperatures in the lower to middle 40s by mid to late afternoon.
Gusty winds have mostly ceased this evening behind the cold front that moved through early today. Current temperatures are near/below freezing due to the mostly clear skies this evening and the colder air mass in place.
Although the ridging will still hold, there could be a meager uptick in shower activity as low level moisture becomes trapped underneath the ridge. A frontal boundary will shift into the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys tomorrow and cause hazardous weather.
Cold front will be on approach late tonight and will move into our northwestern counties around 09Z.
A line of thunderstorms has recently developed along a cold front stretching from northwest Oklahoma into southeast Missouri. 3 inches and dew points in the low to middle 60s and resulting in CAPE in the 1000 to 1500 range. We expect a lull in the action for the next few hours before a cold front starts to move into the region later on tonight.
1004 PM MST Sun Dec 5 2021 Winds will continue to decrease into this evening, so the High Wind Warning has been allowed to expire. Latest upper level analysis has broad trof across the northern Plains with trof axis moving through the Dakotas at the moment. At the surface, low pressure and associated cold front have shifted well to the east and south, with Canadian high pressure moving into the area quickly. Upper trof axis will shift east quickly overnight, with surface pressure gradient slowly relaxing.
All locations reached at least into the 50s by late evening and many areas near and south of I-70 reached the low to mid 60s. A trailing cold front is progressing through central Indiana at this time with strong cold advection in its wake.
(Today and tonight) Strong cold front has brought much cooler air into the area along with gusty north winds. South winds will return rather quickly as next system approaches and lee trough deepens Monday night.
With cold high pressure over the region today, highs will be only in the 20s, and winds will be relatively light.
1019 PM CST Sun Dec 5 2021 (This evening through Monday) Very warm and slightly breezy conditions have developed this afternoon ahead of an approaching cold front, now nearing central KS.
1038 PM CST Sun Dec 5 2021 (The rest of tonight) Line of strong to severe storms continues just ahead of cold front near I44 at present.
(The rest of tonight) Line of strong to severe storms continues just ahead of cold front near I44 at present.
Cool high pressure will continue to sink southward across the High Plains today. The net result will be a cold day with highs only in the lower 30s across the north to near 40F around the Oklahoma state line. Some good news is that the winds will eventually become light and variable as the high continues south over the fa. For tonight, an upper level trof will approach the area from the northwest.
1004 PM CST Sun Dec 5 2021 (This evening through Monday) Cooler temperatures are on the way as a fairly strong cold front moves through the area late tonight and early Monday morning. Lows tonight will be in the 40s, with highs Monday ranging from the lower 50s across the Big Country, to the upper 50s and lower 60s along the I-10 corridor.
310 AM CST Mon Dec 6 2021 Decent SVR Wx potential continues to set up over the area as a strong cold front approaches.
Ahead of that, showers/storms have developed along a pre-frontal trough that currently extends from western Tennessee into the Arklatex. The system will move southeastward and out of Arkansas after sunrise, as a fairly potent mid level trough drops down into the Lower Mississippi Valley. Yes, we will even have freezing temperatures again in most areas.
Temperatures decreased from a peak of 64F yesterday afternoon down to near freezing. Winds are expected to dissipate as the cold front continues to advance southeastward. Some areas near the MO/IA border might struggle to get above freezing. Multiple model solutions suggest a leeward trough depending from the eastern Rocky Mountains and trek across the Plains to the north of our area. This low shifts winds back around to southerly. The fetch of warmer air and moisture is somewhat lacking and isentropic ascent across the area is trending weaker compared to earlier model runs.
Cool high pressure will continue to sink southward across the High Plains today. The net result will be a cold day with highs only in the lower 30s across the north to near 40F around the Oklahoma state line. Some good news is that the winds will eventually become light and variable as the high continues south over the fa. For tonight, an upper level trof will approach the area from the northwest. Have some ghost pops in with the passage of the wave, but the low levels will continue to remain dry. The mentioned UL trof will most likely push a sfc trof across the fa with with a resultant wind shift. Fire weather concerns still do not appear significant even with the warmer temperatures.
The last of the convection associated with the advancing cold front will be exit our southeast counties around 15z this morning. Temperatures will follow a bit of a non-diurnal trend today, especially in the southeast counties, but expect all locations to have temperatures in the lower to middle 40s by mid to late afternoon. Tonight and Tuesday will be quite cold as Canadian high pressure becomes centered over the Midwest. Expecting low temperatures tonight to fall into the lower to middle 20s in most areas.
Cooler and drier weather early this week - Elevated Fire threat. A cold front moved through the region overnight producing a few strong to severe storms and lingering rain across south central Missouri this morning. Cold air advection will continue into tonight with temperatures falling into the middle to upper 20s with wind chills in the lower 20 to upper teens.