Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
A weak disturbance dropping into southeast Montana today combined with low level convergence along an inverted trof over that area will provide the focus for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms, mainly east of a Miles City to Broadus line today. Amplified ridging dominates the forecast starting Sunday with dry and unseasonably warm conditions to end the weekend.
With drier airmass still in place in the lower lvls, have only seen light rainfall amounts.
648 AM EDT Sat Aug 26 2017 High pressure will continue to provide fair weather this weekend.
401 AM EDT Sat Aug 26 2017 High pressure from central Canada will build over the area this weekend and remain across the region through early this coming week. A large and slow moving high pressure system will continue to build in from central Canada today bringing dry weather across the area. Some moisture and cool air will still be pooled aloft in an upper level trough slowly exiting the northern part of the region. The upper trof is forecast to hang across the CWA on Sunday w/a disturbance dropping sse during the day. Clouds will dissipate Sunday w/the trof pushing e.
Amplification of an upper ridge over the interior Northwest will warm temperatures to well above normal. Sites across southeast Oregon will approach record highs on Sunday as a surface thermal trough develops. Dry conditions today with the upper ridge axis west of the area.
This high encompassed most of the Ern USA/Canada. Temps will be a couple degs warmer than yesterday. A little cooler. Dry and quiet wx in NNW or NW flow as a ridge dominates over the Wrn USA with a trof in the E. Slightly cooler than normal temps Mon-Tue.
The thermal trough continues along the coast overnight. A strong ridge with 500mb height 588-590dm is now building into southern Oregon. Tonight the thermal trough is expected to expand north. The thermal trough is expected to shift slowly inland but still stay west of the Cascades.
238 AM CDT Sat Aug 26 2017 Aloft, the stubborn blocking pattern remains in place, with a broad upper high over the southwestern US, upper ridge spanning Manitoba and Ontario, flanked by upper lows over the western provinces and Nova Scotia. At the surface, trough extends through the plains, with a warm front extending into MN. Ridging along the Ohio valley keeping the deep Gulf moisture feed at bay. As the upper low deepens and pushes eastward into the upper ridge, cold front will make slow progress eastward. By tonight, cold front will be pushing into central Iowa. Sunday, a slow moving cold front will continue to push east through the forecast area. Expect dew points in the low/mid 60s with afternoon temps ranging from the mid 70s to low 80s.
Upper ridging is over the southwest part of the country and Hurricane Harvey has made landfall in southeast Texas. Temperatures today are expected to be a little cooler than yesterday with higher surface pressure moving across the area. Precipitation chances decrease across the CWA starting Sunday as the upper ridge over the western part of the country builds and has more of an impact over the area.
A WET WEEKEND IS ON TAP AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS FLORIDA. Aloft - A trough extends down the eastern seaboard. with weak flow above FL as a compact ridge continues in the central and western Gulf and an Atlantic ridge reaches to the Bahamas. The somewhat diffuse center of the low eases northeastward and is expected to reach the northeast Fl coast late Sun. troughiness trailing the low will hang back across west central Fl. and weak cyclonic circulation around the low/trough. with the higher amounts favored. Temperatures will run on the warm side for the lows while clouds and rain will keep the high temperatures below normal.
Imagery shows complex upper level pattern with (now) rather flat flow across the CONUS with large trof over the nern states, Bermuda High intruding under the trof all the way across the srn CONUS. SFC has general low pressure across the wrn CONUS with a weak meso-high intruding across wrn WY, weak SFC trof over ern WY and a weak front located to the nw, stretching from wrn MT to nrn California. with a dry SFC front moving south through the region east of the Divide and across southern WY with high pressure building into the region.
411 AM CDT Sat Aug 26 2017 Today and Tonight: Looking at the synoptic setup across the country early this morning, Hurricane Harvey continues to slowly edge inland across coastal Texas, with a strong ridge of high pressure across the Great Basin and a weaker ridge over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico.
311 AM EDT Sat Aug 26 2017 High pressure will continue to provide fair weather this weekend.
Harvey is getting itself caught up between two strong ridges of high pressure. Low temperatures remain elevated however due to the high moisture levels.
Models have held on to idea of a weak cold front arriving Sunday afternoon and Sunday night.
Otherwise, another day of below normal temperatures is expected across the area as high pressure prevails.
320 AM CDT Sat Aug 26 2017 A weak low pressure system will lift northeast across Minnesota into central Wisconsin this weekend resulting in rain showers and a few thunderstorms across the Northland through the weekend. Temperatures cooler than normal with highs in the 50s to 60s today, upper 50s to near 70 on Sunday.
Models suggest this low to move slowly across Central Florida tonight into Saturday. This sw flow will continue providing deep moist advection as the low pressure shifts northeast across Central FL into the Atlantic by Saturday. Expect numerous showers and thunderstorms each day, before a cold front moves into Central Florida and stalls.
Expect a trough of low pressure to our north to swing southeastward overnight. While there could be some development along this trough. where forcing from the low level jet should aid in additional convective development overnight. expect the aforementioned trough to dissipate across the local area and for a partly sunny and dry afternoon for just about everyone. High pressure is expected to strengthen across the Great Basin to begin the extended periods. as we will be situated between high pressure to our west and low pressure across the Great Lakes region. Before the area of high pressure to our west builds further north and settles into the Great Basin late in the weekend. expect the ridge to our west to eventually flatten.
602 AM EDT Sat Aug 26 2017 Large high pressure firmly entrenched today over the Central Great Lakes. High pressure will bring a sunny, mild and tranquil day today with highs in the lower to middle 70s (still some 5 degrees below late August averages).
Upper level ridge will continue to slowly build northward through the Rockies on Saturday, with warmer and drier conditions expected area-wide.
High pressure and warmer temperatures will rule this weekend with low to mid 90 degree temperatures forecast across the Snake Plain.
High pressure over the Great Lakes now will move slowly east into southeast Canada by Sunday morning, keeping our weather dry and pleasant for late August. Temperatures will remain below normal, though Saturday we'll be a degree or two warmer than today. So what does that mean for our weather? Sunday should continue as a dry day, with temperatures another ~2 degrees warmer than Saturday.
333 AM EDT Sat Aug 26 2017 Large area of high pressure over the Central Great Lakes will slide east and move into New England Sunday.
322 AM CDT Sat Aug 26 2017 Early this Saturday morning, sprawling high pressure was centered over the Hudson Bay to the Great Lakes, and extended down into the Volunteer State with nice wx. For today, the high pressure system with northwest flow aloft will keep our wx dry and slightly cooler than normal. Highs will reach the low to mid 80s. On Sunday, the high pressure will begin to pull east, allowing slightly warmer and more humid air to develop.
Weak troughing overhead will allow for some clouds to move in keeping temperatures similar to what we saw yesterday which was slightly below normal for this time of year. High resolution models indicating we could see some shower development in the higher terrain in the afternoon/evening hours. If storms do form they would likely stick to the higher terrain and remain very isolated, while most people will enjoy another pleasant day like we have for the past several days.
423 AM EDT Sat Aug 26 2017 Broad area of low pressure (92L with 50% chance of development into Tropical Cyclone over the next 5 days) was located from near Tampa, with a trough stretching northeastward from the broad low into the western Atlantic east of St. The area of low pressure and inverted trough will continue to slowly shift to the northeast through tonight, with low pressure possibly moving off the coast into the Atlantic late tonight. Coastal showers will remain possible overnight as the area of low pressure begins to move offshore.
217 AM EDT Sat Aug 26 2017 High pressure will bring a sunny, mild and tranquil day today with highs in the lower to middle 70s (still some 5 degrees below late August averages).
328 AM EDT Sat Aug 26 2017 Canadian high pressure will remain in charge through the weekend providing dry weather with below normal temperatures.
301 AM CDT Sat Aug 26 2017 Upper level ridge of high pressure is currently building over the western CONUS early this morning. Highs should again top out in the lower to upper 80s this afternoon. Lows tonight will fall into the lower to middle 60s. The upper level ridge of high pressure will remain over the western U.
118 AM EDT Sat Aug 26 2017 Aviation The large Canadian origin high pressure system over the Great Lakes will slide off to the east and southeast over the weekend. That will allow southerly winds to bring in warmer air.
115 AM EDT Sat Aug 26 2017 High pressure will keep fair weather through the weekend.
229 AM EDT Sat Aug 26 2017 Canadian high pressure will remain in charge through the weekend providing dry weather with below normal temperatures.
Deep layer shear continues to remain on the low end range of 10 to 15kt. Sunday will be a mostly dry day as a ridge of high pressure that was over the Four Corners shifts over the western Panhandles. These dry conditions wont last very long as a cold front approaches Sunday night. This cold front will likely be our last best chance for precipitation through the end of this forecast.
A sprawling high pressure system is building east from the Great Plains this morning. Current blustery winds will diminish to 10 to 15 mph by mid morning as the high builds builds into the lower and middle Mississippi Valley. The airmass associated with this high isn't particularly cold. Dewpoint temperatures will be in the mid 20s over most of the area, but I recent rains will put a damper on the potential full effect of the radiational cooling and only allow temperatures to fall into the low to mid 30s for most locations.
The storms are a result of a slow moving cold front pushing towards the coast. The front is still progged to stall somewhere near the coast or perhaps just offshore later this morning which may allow for training to develop, but some of the high resolution guidance including the HRRR indicates that there may be a lull in convection during the late morning into the early afternoon in response to the departure of the initial upper trough and the approach of a second upper trough which will swing through the area late tonight shunting the front further offshore and ushering in some relatively cooler, drier air for Monday.
Jamba A couple of challenges are worth monitoring to in the short term forecast as the next upper level disturbance set to roll through the region today into Monday with the trough starting to flatten shortly thereafter.
The heaviest precipitation is still expected through north central Idaho and along the Idaho/northwest Montana border where several inches of snow will be possible for valleys and over a foot of snow is possible in the higher terrain. Another concern with this system is for gusty southwest winds, which will cause areas of blowing and drifting snow, especially in the higher terrain.
The front is still progged to stall somewhere near the coast or perhaps just offshore later this morning which may allow for training to develop, but some of the high resolution guidance including the HRRR indicates that there may be a lull in convection during the late morning into the early afternoon in response to the departure of the initial upper trough and the approach of a second upper trough which will swing through the area late tonight shunting the front further offshore and ushering in some relatively cooler, drier air for Monday.
On Monday, a deepening lee trof will causing south and southwest winds to increase.
620 AM CST Sun Feb 25 2018 The big story will be dry and warmer today with westerly downslope winds helping to get Nebraska zones back into the 40s for highs, while north central Kansas could see 50. Low dewpoints with clear skies and light winds should allow temperatures to cool off pretty fast into the teens northwest to the lower and mid 20s elsewhere.
927 AM EST Sun Feb 25 2018 Cold front sweeps east this morning and early afternoon.
The large upper level trough that had remained nearly stationary across the western and central CONUS for the previous few days will gradually push eastward today, with a strengthening jet streak on its eastern flank. Under this feature, a cold front at the surface will accelerate and push southeastward, approaching the northwestern corner of our CWA late this afternoon into the early evening.
To the south, the trailing portion of a slow-moving cold front extends across south-central Texas. With generally northwest to north winds decreasing to 5 mph or less, and dry air in place across all of our area tonight, overnight lows are expected to be in the lower to mid 30s.
As temperatures approach 30F could be some melting and refreezing that could cause minor travel issues. Westerly flow/warm front will approach and move through the region today and temperatures should climb into the 20s or low 30s.
However, a trough digging southward along the West Coast is expected to bring increasing clouds to northeast Utah and northwest Colorado as the night progresses. The trough continues to dig on Monday causing flow to shift more to the southwest, advecting warmer air across the region. This unsettled and active pattern looks to persist through the coming week as a series of troughs move through the region, bringing more snow to the high country and some valleys. A low pressure system will dive down the west coast towards SoCal Monday night, with southwest flow increasing across the area.
A period of heavy snow is expected across the northern Sierra late tonight and Monday morning as the cold front sweeps south, then snow showers will continue over the Sierra into Monday evening.
Overall, most of the area will see plenty of sunshine today with temperatures warming to around freezing. Winds will taper tonight and temperatures will fall into the lower teens, possibly single digits under clear skies.
In the middle and upper levels(700-200 mb), latest available satelitte imagery overlaid with model streamline analysis as of 800 am, depict an expansive low amplitude trough encompassing the Central and Western CONUS, with ridging along the Eastern Seaboard. At the surface, latest marine and land observations and analysis as of 900 am, detail the axis of a 1025 mb plus Western Atlantic ridge which presently extends from south of Bermuda west southwest to across Florida and into the SW Gulf of Mexico. As of 800 am, skies are mostly sunny across the islands and surrounding waters, A broken yet slowly dissolving convergence line of showers well west of the Lower Keys still does remain in place and extends in place 20 nm north and south of the Fort Jefferson National Monument in Dry Tortugas National Park.
Models show high pressure building over the middle Mississippi and lower Ohio valleys today into tonight.
A broken, thin line of showers moving through the wrn mtns attm is the leading edge of the drier/cooler air. Mild and dry for Mon through Tue night as high pressure ridge will be in control.
Mostly cloudy skies to start the day should give way to sunny skies by afternoon as strong subsidence and dry air advection quickly erode the low cloudiness.
At the surface, the cold front has made 50-100 miles east and south of the Arkansas border with precip just lingering to the southeast of the forecast area behind the front. For today, high pressure will begin to build in over the area before shifting east later in the day. Rain chances should wrap up by Monday morning across the southeast as the front to the south of the state gets a nudge toward the Gulf and high pressure asserts itself back over the area. Temperatures out there today will be near normal in the wake of the cold front, but with mostly clear skies on Monday, temperatures will warm up several degrees.
303 AM MST Sun Feb 25 2018 Upper level analysis has broad trof across the central CONUS, with ridging along the east and west coasts. Weak secondary wave associated with the main upper trof will cross the region early this morning, bringing a slight chance for some upslope snow showers over the northern Hills. A weak warm front will shift east across the area, and allow temperatures to warm into the 30s, with some lower 40s possible. Models are showing a weak ridge bringing a brief period of warmer temps to the area towards the end of the week, before colder air and chances for snow return this weekend.
Windy and warmer weather is expected Monday, with a significant risk of wildfires.
Building high pressure will result in dry and mild conditions through the first part of the work week. A cold front crossing forecast area and currently running roughly from Dubois-Pittsburgh-Parkersburg will be east of the ridges by early afternoon. By this time, high pressure will start to nose in from the lower Ohio Valley, loosening the pressure gradient and allowing wind gusts to diminish.
This front will sink slowly south into southern GA Monday as strong high pressure builds into the region behind this frontal system.
An inverted trough extended to the northwest over northern Minnesota and into southeast Manitoba. The secondary trough, overall cyclonic flow, and cold air advection should be able to wring out some lingering snow showers and flurries through this afternoon. The clipper will back winds from westerly to southwesterly keeping temperatures elevated tonight and trending warmer for Monday.
High pressure is expected across the area for the early parts of the week. Surface observations indicate cold front is currently about half way through the forecast area, with short term model guidance suggesting this front will pass east of the forecast area around 251000Z.
An early storm riding along the cold front in Frio county became severe and split. The cold front is now just south of the CWA and the storms should remain elevated. Temperatures across the eastern 2/3rds of the eastern half of the CWA will remain cool, in the low 60s under cloud cover, while clearing across the western CWA this afternoon should allow temps to climb into the mid 70s. Drier air should temporarily work into the region tonight through Monday allowing for warmer high temperatures Monday afternoon across the eastern half of the CWA.
and Monday Low pressure was exiting northern Wisconsin at 09z and taking most of the precipitation along with it.
326 AM PST Sun Feb 25 2018 Today will be dry and warmer for lower elevations with gusty northeast winds to 35 mph near the coastal foothills and below passes and canyons.
There are hints at some light showers across northern Oklahoma this evening but no restrictions expected with this low probability so it will not be included at KPNC this cycle. Fast moving upper trough will pass over the region this afternoon and evening. The NAM and to lesser extent the GFS are less aggressive but also have this signal as mid-level thermal trough passes across Kansas and Oklahoma.
High pressure remains in control across the area with very dry air in place aloft.
High clouds to the west rounding the ridge and moving across western Nebraska early this morning. Westerly down slope flow and ridge building east will aid the warm up.
The cold front is expected to stall later today as it approaches the coast beneath southwest flow aloft.
Models suggest that southwesterly flow aloft across the TN Valley will be maintained between this feature, and an elongated 500-mb ridge extending from the Bay of Campeche northeastward to the FL peninsula. A secondary mid-level vort max within the base of the broader longwave trough is predicted to shift eastward across the southern Rockies and into the adjacent high Plains today. Although this feature will become highly sheared as it translates into the mid-MS Valley tonight, weak synoptic scale ascent should promote development of a frontal wave of low pressure along the northwest Gulf coast by late this afternoon.
Winds and temperatures will increase Monday as a low pressure system approaches.
Temperatures across the eastern 2/3rds of the eastern half of the CWA will remain cool, in the low 60s under cloud cover, while clearing across the western CWA this afternoon should allow temps to climb into the mid 70s. Drier air should temporarily work into the region tonight through Monday allowing for warmer high temperatures Monday afternoon across the eastern half of the CWA.
447 AM PST Sun Feb 25 2018 Dry weather and temperatures near normal today will be followed by a cold front arriving Monday and bringing precipitation to the region.
Central Illinois is moving into a period of dry weather in the forecast behind last nights cold front. Gusty west winds to continue as high pressure expands over the Plains and into the Midwest. Behind the cold front this morning, temperatures cool slightly but still above normal for today and tonight as the low is not deep back into the colder air over Canada. Will get the chance to see some sunshine today and stars tonight under the high pressure.
630 AM EST Sun Feb 25 2018 A cold front will continue to shunt the heavy precipitation east of the region early this morning. Surface cold front has reached the Ohio-Indiana line. Even though high pressure will build in at the surface, cirrus will spread north tonight as H5 vort lifts northeast in the srn stream. Low temperatures will be cooler tonight ranging from the lower 30s in West Central Ohio to the mid to upper 30s in the southeast.
557 AM CST Sun Feb 25 2018 Central Illinois is moving into a period of dry weather in the forecast behind last nights cold front. Gusty west winds to continue as high pressure expands over the Plains and into the Midwest. Behind the cold front this morning, temperatures cool slightly but still above normal for today and tonight as the low is not deep back into the colder air over Canada. Will get the chance to see some sunshine today and stars tonight under the high pressure.
The cold front is now just making it in across area, with some scattered showers developing along it. A surface cold front is currently moving across western Kentucky, with the main precipitation shield making steady progress to the east out ahead of the boundary. Highs will be cooler today, ranging from the upper 50s to lower 60s. Tonight into Monday, a mid-level trough axis will dampen as it heads east from the Plains to the Appalachians. Lows tonight will range from the upper 30s in the Bluegrass, to the lower 40s across the southeast.
Currently, low pressure was situated from Wisconsin northwest into northern Minnesota and easter North Dakota. With temperatures warming above freezing over many areas we could see another day with any drifting snow sticking to roads and re-freezing.
Winds become light southerly as a trough of low pressure moves into the western plains, and the surface dew point depressions are very small. Lows tonight could get pretty chilly in the low lying areas, therefore blended some ARW and NMM values into the consensus which lowers temperatures in low lying terrain. Low to mid level moisture is limited; therefore only a few clouds will be possible with the passage of this front, along with warmer temperatures.