Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Here in the Northern Plains, we have an upper ridge over us that extends from TX north through the prairie provinces of Canada. An upper level low over the northern Rockies is trying to make progress eastward but is running up against the upper ridge. trough will make it east through the central U. cutting off the ridge/high over the prairie provinces. All that said to make the point that high pressure at the surface will stay in place over Manitoba and eastern ND and northern MN. The high over Manitoba will push south on Sunday and Sunday night, along with a reinforcing shot of cool air.
259 PM CDT Sat May 8 2021 An area of low pressure is currently centered across northwestern KS, and a trough of low pressure extends NNW from there across the front range of the Northern Rockies. Any remaining shower activity by 12z Sunday should be confined to a fairly narrow band across portions of central SD, which will eventually be overtaken by drier air as high pressure drops in from the north. As the high moves in, sfc winds shift to the northeast through the day Sunday, and RH drops to 20-25 percent across west central MN during the afternoon.
408 PM EDT Sat May 8 2021 The upper level pattern should deamplify through the period as troughing aloft departs from the Eastern Seaboard. The stronger easterly breeze should favor highs in the mid 80s to lower 90s for most areas, although the east coast beaches should remain in the lower 80s.
417 PM EDT Sat May 8 2021 An upper level trough will continue moving into the Atlantic as dry high pressure builds across the area through tonight. High pressure will move offshore on Sunday bringing with it a warmer south/southwest wind flow.
Upper-level low continues to reside over north-central Montana this afternoon with disturbances rotating around the low pressure system. As this heavy snow over northeast Montana weakens this evening, attention turns to north-central and central Montana this evening into the overnight as a pair of disturbances along with a surface cold front move southeast from Alberta through north-central and central Montana.
GOES Water Vapor imagery showing a deep trough of low pressure passing through the Intermountain West early this afternoon. But wait, that's not all! Models also indicating some snowfall possible across portions of northeast IA/far southwest WI with that dry northeast flow producing evaporative cooling in the lower levels and diabatic cooling from snow rates aloft falling into the lower levels. After remnant precipitation moves off with the low to our south in the morning, the rest of Sunday shaping up to be a chillier than normal day with plenty of cumulus/isolated showers around due to fairly steep low level lapse rates under cold cyclonic flow aloft. Instability seems to linger over the area with cold air aloft on the southwestern side of the Great Lakes trough.
A warm front has developed over Middle Tennessee today, and numerous light showers are riding down the northwest flow aloft. The warm front will lift to our north during the next few hours and leave us in a dry slot until Sunday, when a cold front approaches the mid state from the west. Look for LLWS to develop during the evening as the low-level jet increases.
1041 AM MDT Sat May 8 2021 Water vapor imagery shows an upper low across extreme west- central Montana early this morning. The associated cold front has pushed across the forecast area. Cold air advection will continue today as the trough and upper low continues to pull eastward. After 03Z, models are showing a mainly dry night across the entire area as some subsidence on the south side of the upper low pulls across the forecast area. This is expected to change during the day Sunday as the upper low pulls possibly across northeast Wyoming into the northern High Plains. A closed low situated over far western Montana has an associated trough extending southward across Idaho and clipping northwestern Wyoming.
As the high moves off to the east, the area will return to moist, southerly flow with dewpoints tomorrow going from mid 40s to near 60 degrees which will reduce fire weather concerns, despite dry fuels remaining in place and breezy winds out of the SSW. Latest CAMs hint towards a weakening line of showers and storms along and ahead of a weak cold front. Showers and thunderstorms will enter northwest Georgia Sunday night ahead of a cold front.
241 PM EDT Sat May 8 2021 An upper level trough will continue moving into the Atlantic as dry high pressure builds across the area through tonight. High pressure will move offshore on Sunday bringing with it a warmer south/southwest wind flow.
Overnight, expect dry and seasonable conditions with northwest breezes remaining elevated in the higher terrain. A broad, mainly dry trough will translate southward on Sunday, brining clouds to much of eastern Utah and western Colorado. Height falls and mid level temperature decreases, along with this cloud cover, will result in a notably cooler day. Forecast soundings show steadily saturating profiles however any shower chances look to hold off until after the 9pm to midnight timeframe, even in the higher terrain. Cooler temperatures are expected to persist overnight.
Winds should decrease some early this evening ahead of a cold front, but will increase and become northerly as the front sweeps through the Panhandles between 00z and 06z this evening. A cold front will move across the region between 00Z and 05Z, with gusty north winds in its wake. A cold front will move across the area this evening and tonight. Isolated thunderstorms may clip the western OK Panhandle as the cold front tracks southward from eastern CO, and have maintained slight chc pops for Cimarron county this evening.
First, a departing 500-mb trough leaves a trailing 60-80knot jet aloft, placing our area in the right entrance region of this jet.
Today through Sunday night: An upper level low pressure system will reside over the Idaho Panhandle to western Montana in a Rex Block configuration with a blocking high over Saskatchewan. The cold core of the low will keep the atmosphere conditionally unstable throughout the weekend. The center of the low looks to retrograde just a little bit for Sunday with chances of showers looking a little bit more favorable. Low temperatures are a bit tricky to forecast, but will continue to see those colder pockets in the northern mountain valleys dipping down near to or below the freezing mark. The Spokane Area, portions of the Upper Columbia Basin, and Palouse will see temperatures drop down in the low to mid 30s for Saturday night night into Sunday morning.
A small window of opportunity early this morning for 60+ MPH gusts near Arlington/Elk Mountain as the 700 hpa CAG-CPR gradient climbs to near 60 meters after 09z in advance of a surface cold front now moving into western Carbon County. Precipitation chances are likely to be on the up- tick again by Sunday night as a vigorous upper-level trough begins to dig south into the Great Basin.
A cold front is expected to move in around midnight clearing the CWFA before sunrise on Sunday morning.
High pressure will provide a mostly dry start to the work week, although temperatures will remain below normal. These showers will end over the next few hours as surface ridging starts to build in. Transitory high pressure will provide a brief dry break during the afternoon and into the evening. Precipitation chances will increase after midnight ahead of a warm front rising north in the Middle Ohio Valley, especially to the south and west of Pittsburgh. Some snow may mix in initially in the higher elevations, with virtually no appreciable accumulation. Model soundings continue to indicate quite stable conditions in the lower levels.
Opted to issue a Freeze Warning across the north where temperatures are most likely to fall below freezing. Frost/freeze concerns wane quickly by mid-morning and temperatures will rise into the 50s by the afternoon (slightly cooler in the upper 40s along Lake Michigan). Forecast soundings once again show steep low and mid-level lapse rates during the afternoon as cooler air advects in at 850mb. Sunday Night Through Saturday An upper level low will keep cool weather in across the western Great Lakes during the early part of the week.
A low pressure system moves across the Ohio Valley region Sunday, while a cold front shifts southeast over the ArkLaTex region. High temperatures in the lower 80's for most areas this afternoon looks to be on track due to plenty of sunshine. Temperatures tonight will be warmer than prior nights as lows drop into the mid 50's and lower 60's.
A northwest flow aloft resides over the area with an upper trough located to the northeast. A disturbance approaching from the northwest coast will bring increasing clouds tonight and isolated mountain showers on Sunday as it moves inland and merges with a low pressure trough over Montana.
Clouds will increase area wide early Sunday morning as an approaching frontal boundary begins to interact with the low level moisture.
Radiational cooling will result in lows falling to the low to mid 40s across inland southeast GA early this morning, with mid to upper 40s expected for inland northeast and north central FL. Negatively tilted troughing over New England and the Mid-Atlantic states will lift northeastward today, keeping deep northwesterly flow in place aloft. Otherwise, high pressure will move overhead this afternoon, and a loosening local pressure gradient will allow for the Atlantic sea breeze boundary to develop and move inland this afternoon. A very dry air mass and nothing more than thin cirrus drifting overhead will allow highs to climb to the lower 80s inland, while the afternoon sea breeze keeps coastal highs in the upper 70s. High pressure will move offshore this evening, and a light southeasterly breeze will keep coastal lows in the low to mid 60s overnight.
Rain chances decrease from south to north this afternoon resulting in a pleasant afternoon with highs in the lower 70s. A cold front trailing SW of the low should move across the area Sun night.
Light and variable winds today will become gradually more easterly this afternoon as high pressure over the area moves into the western Atlantic and the east coast sea breeze moves inland. Lows tonight will be warmer, staying mostly in the 50s, with low 60s along the immediate coastline and the St.
312 PM CDT Sat May 8 2021 The warm frontal boundary along the MO/AR and KY/TN borders has been slow to advance north today. Precipitation will end overnight (except, perhaps, in our far north and northeast counties) as the warm front lifts north through the forecast area. The warm front will result in a non-diurnal temperature evolution tonight, with temperatures warming from the lower 50s to lower 60s at 06z to the middle and upper 60s by 12z Sunday. If there is, additional thunderstorm development is likely ahead of the approaching surface cold front during the mid afternoon through early evening. Training convection parallel to the cold front will produce locally heavy rain of 1 to 2 inches.
The eastern US trough aloft continue to shift east, and weak short wave ridging will move across tonight/early Sunday then off to our east. A low pressure system will eject out of the Plains and into the Ohio Valley during the period, with a cold front approaching Middle TN by the end of the period. Also, RH values will bottom out in the low to mid 30s in many locations, and this combined with the wind will increase the risk of fire spread.
On Sunday, a cold front will move south of the I-20 corridor by 15Z and to near the I-10 corridor by 00Z. Expect cooler temperatures across the Big Country with highs 80 to 85 and hot across the remainder of the area with highs 90 to 95. 21 (Sunday night through next Saturday) Expect an unsettled weather pattern through the first half of the work week as the remnant cold front lingers across the area. We will see generally zonal flow aloft across west Texas, with a broad upper trough across the Southwest.
855 AM PDT Sat May 8 2021 Low pressure across the northern Rockies will maintain onshore flow with periods of gusty westerly winds over the mountains and deserts this weekend.
234 PM EDT Sat May 8 2021 Low pressure will continue to move east over the Atlantic Tonight and Sunday as high pressure builds just south of the region resulting in fairly pleasant weather conditions for Mothers Day.
Generally fair skies will grace most of northeast ND through northwest MN today as they lie just north of a NW-SE oriented H5 deformation axis anchored roughly from the southeast corner of Saskatchewan through the Wahpeton-Breckenridge area and down through the southeast corner of Minnesota. A mid level low pressure system now breaking through the northern Rockies should drop through the High Plains today and track southeastward into the Central Plains by Sunday night. The trend for the upcoming week will be toward warmer temps and a continuation of deficits in precipitation. Split flow continue with upper high over south Central Canada as a low/trough swings from the southwest to our south over Central Plains, keeping any active weather over those parts.
225 PM MDT Sat May 8 2021 Surface analysis placed a trough from east-central MT through the western NE Panhandle. Gusty west to northwest winds prevailed to the west of the trough. Broad mid/upper level trough will reside over the North-Central Rockies and Great Plains Sunday. Weak short waves will rotate through the trough Sunday along with modest low/mid level lapse rates and instability to produce scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms, mainly over southeast WY.
Colder air settles into the area this morning, with rain transitioning to snow slowly over some of the higher elevations today. Showers will increase across much of the area this afternoon with greatest coverage across north-central MT as additional moisture wraps around an upper level low over the region. A winter weather advisory remains in effect mainly for the higher elevation of Cascade, Judith Basin, and Meagher Counties for late this afternoon through Sunday morning.
Beyond Sunday, split upper flow will continue across the lower 48. Temperatures will be cooler through mid week. VCSH possible at MKL through 20Z but most areas should remain dry until Sunday morning as showers develop ahead of a cold front. S winds will continue to increase this afternoon and into tonight as a warm front departs the area.
322 PM CDT Sat May 8 2021 A warm front will move northward into central MO and southern IL by early evening.
For late tonight into early Sunday morning the focus becomes the cold front moving in. Higher thunderstorm chances are expected through the morning hours Sunday along the cold front across southeastern OK as low level moisture continues to deepen. Much cooler temps will accompany the front for Sunday afternoon, with highs in the low to upper 70s from north to south respectively.
Winds will begin to decrease around sunset ahead of a cold front expected to move south through the area after midnight. A cold front is expected to move in around midnight clearing the CWFA before sunrise on Sunday morning.
The low level jet will precede the influx of boundary layer moisture and instability on Sunday, in advance of the approaching surface cold front. Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms remain on track for Sunday afternoon and evening, mainly timed with the passage of the slow-moving surface cold front. Beyond Sunday, split upper flow will continue across the lower 48. As such, midweek PoPs have trended a bit lower, and mid to late week temps a bit cooler. VCSH possible at MKL through 20Z but most areas should remain dry until Sunday morning as showers develop ahead of a cold front. S winds will continue to increase this afternoon and into tonight as a warm front departs the area.
3) Cooler than normal temperatures are expected through much of the upcoming week. Storm mode will favor localized damaging wind gusts, and with the strong low-level shear and quasi-stationary warm frontal boundary present, a low risk of brief/weaker tornadoes in the line.
A slow moving low pressure system is circulating over the Continental Divide and Central Montana. Moisture wrapping around this low is resulting in widespread showers and some gusty northerly winds across Western Montana.
Light to moderate rainfall continues across portions of central and north central SD at this hour, with over three tenths measured at Mobridge so far. Low pressure and the associated rain and thunderstorms continue to advance eastward off the Rockies and into central SD early this morning. As the ridge shifts south through today, expect thunderstorm activity to taper off. Temperatures will either hold steady or fall today as rain moves in, especially as the upper ridge moves south and caa takes hold. Long range will be dominated by cool and mostly dry conditions, as an upper high drifts nearby, before the remnant upper low eventually kicks eastwards with some potential for light showers.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 54 81 62 74 52 / 0 20 70 70 20 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 52 80 61 71 49 / 10 20 80 60 20 Oak Ridge, TN 50 79 60 69 48 / 10 20 80 60 20 Tri Cities Airport, TN 47 76 57 69 46 / 10 20 70 60 20.
with inverted trof into eastern Montana. Upper level low is moving into the northern Rockies. with inverted trof into the western Dakotas. Best lift focused north and east of the forecast area through much of the day into tonight as upper low stretches into the western Dakotas. Upper trof remains across the Rockies Sunday.
Beyond Sunday, split upper flow will continue across the lower 48. Temperatures will be cooler through mid week. Cigs are expected to lower to MVFR as the steadier rain/thunderstorms move in ahead of a cold front.
756 PM EDT Sat May 8 2021 Showers across northern New York will end this evening with some partial clearing overnight as weak high pressure moves toward the region.
1023 PM EDT Sat May 8 2021 A weak warm front will lift across the area on Sunday.
Surface analysis placed a trough from east-central MT through the western NE Panhandle. Gusty west to northwest winds prevailed to the west of the trough. Broad mid/upper level trough will reside over the North-Central Rockies and Great Plains Sunday. Weak short waves will rotate through the trough Sunday along with modest low/mid level lapse rates and instability to produce scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms, mainly over southeast WY.
729 PM EDT Sat May 8 2021 Showers across northern New York will end this evening with some partial clearing overnight as weak high pressure moves toward the region.
High pressure will then provide a mostly dry start to the work week, although temperatures will remain below average. Backing srly sfc flow should commence this evening as low pressure develops across the central Plains, with warm, moist advection aiding in increasing cloud cover from sw to ne. Precipitation chances will increase after midnight ahead of a warm front rising north in the Middle Ohio Valley, especially to the south and west of Pittsburgh. Some snow may mix in initially in the higher elevations, with virtually no appreciable accumulation. Model soundings continue to indicate quite stable conditions in the lower levels.
A low pressure system moves across the Ohio Valley region Sunday, while a cold front shifts southeast over the ArkLaTex region. Temperatures tonight will be warmer than prior nights as lows drop into the mid 50s and lower 60s.
653 PM CDT Sat May 8 2021 A quiet evening across the northern plains as dry and relatively cool Canadian high pressure keeps rain showers to the southwest of the area this evening. Here in the Northern Plains, we have an upper ridge over us that extends from TX north through the prairie provinces of Canada. An upper level low over the northern Rockies is trying to make progress eastward but is running up against the upper ridge. trough will make it east through the central U. cutting off the ridge/high over the prairie provinces. All that said to make the point that high pressure at the surface will stay in place over Manitoba and eastern ND and northern MN. The high over Manitoba will push south on Sunday and Sunday night, along with a reinforcing shot of cool air.
The upper level pattern should deamplify through the period as troughing aloft departs from the Eastern Seaboard. The stronger easterly breeze should favor highs in the mid 80s to lower 90s for most areas, although the east coast beaches should remain in the lower 80s.
853 PM EDT Sat May 8 2021 High pressure continues to ridge across the area with the center shifting east to over the Atlantic this evening. An evening surge will bring winds up to around 15 knots for the next few evenings as high pressure ridges across the waters from the Atlantic.
A wave will move eastward from the High Plains late this afternoon, which looks to enhance lift enough for a resurgence of precipitation in the mid-level boundary. Tendency will be for the wave to begin to shear apart during the later evening between the closed low in MT and the system over the Great Lakes, so after initial increase in coverage, will begin to slowly dwindle by later evening and into the overnight. If this is to occur, there would be the threat for more frost/freezing temps to impact early growth, and something that should be watched over the next day.
705 PM CDT Sat May 8 2021 A warm front will move northward into central MO and southern IL by early evening.
Models hold off on instability for most of the morning but ramps up in the afternoon thanks to the strong southerly winds and approaching cold front. Deep layer shear will be in place, and even some directional shear in the low levels with 0-1 km shear around 20-35 knots. On Sunday, gusty SSW winds will continue as a cold front and low pressure system approach from the west.
As this weak system moves out of the area Sunday a ridge will build in behind it. Resulting in warmer and sunnier conditions.
704 PM EDT Sat May 8 2021 A weak warm front will lift across the area on Sunday.
609 PM EDT Sat May 8 2021 A weak warm front will lift across the area on Sunday.
1039 PM EDT Sat May 8 2021 Currently - High pressure aligned from the Atlantic, across northern Florida and into the Gulf of Mexico is resulting in freshening breezes across the Keys and surrounding waters. Short Term Update - The ridge to our north will broaden as it elongates eastwards through the overnight period. A ridge across northern Florida along with a cooling peninsula is resulting in fresh breezes spreading across Keys waters.
The warm frontal boundary along the MO/AR and KY/TN borders has been slow to advance north today. Precipitation will end overnight (except, perhaps, in our far north and northeast counties) as the warm front lifts north through the forecast area. The warm front will result in a non-diurnal temperature evolution tonight, with temperatures warming from the lower 50s to lower 60s at 06z to the middle and upper 60s by 12z Sunday. If there is, additional thunderstorm development is likely ahead of the approaching surface cold front during the mid afternoon through early evening. Training convection parallel to the cold front will produce locally heavy rain of 1 to 2 inches.
205 PM PDT Sat May 8 2021 Low pressure across the northern Rockies will maintain onshore flow with periods of gusty westerly winds over the mountains and deserts this weekend.
High pressure over the eastern Gulf and low pressure east of the Rockies allowing for breezy southerly winds.
A dry cold front is expected to push through the region around midnight with a wind shift to the north. Winds will begin to decrease around sunset ahead of a cold front expected to move south through the area after midnight. A cold front is expected to move in around midnight clearing the CWFA before sunrise on Sunday morning.