Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
These lower ceilings would accompany a brief period of light snow, sleet or light freezing rain. Forecast confidence is high: Low pressure will pass by to the south tonight, with precip on the north side of the low brushing the southern forecast area. Still looks like mainly snow, but not out of the question to see a brief mix with sleet or freezing rain given a little warm layer aloft and a possible loss of saturation in the ice crystal growth zone. It will be cooler toward the east, especially near Lake Michigan under onshore winds.
The GFS is persistent with weakening the CAP but most if not all the high-res models keep the lid on things and therefore shows no thunderstorm activity for our area.
/issued 633 PM CDT Fri Mar 16 2018/ Warm frontal clouds moving very little across the Midsouth early this evening. This low is expected to slowly lift east across central Illinois through Saturday morning. As it does, a weak cold front will push through the Mid-South through tomorrow morning.
Showers and thunderstorms have been developing across western MO ahead of the surface front along the leading edge of large scale ascent associated with a negatively tilted short wave rotating east northeast through the Plains upper trof.
A warm front, located just north of Nashville early this afternoon, resulted in 3 pm temperatures ranging from the mid 60s to near 70 along and south of the I-40 corridor, to near 60 along the Kentucky border.
811 PM EDT Fri Mar 16 2018 A wintry mix will move into areas along and south of the highway 24 corridor late tonight into Saturday morning before ending.
For this weekend, warmer temperatures are forecast on Saturday as upper level flow becomes more southwesterly. Areas with a solid snowpack may remain in the low to mid 40's though.
949 PM CDT Fri Mar 16 2018 Current satellite, radar, and surface weather observations show low clouds over extreme southwest North Dakota with pockets of very light snow and freezing drizzle. Chances for light snow and freezing drizzle continue through tonight, ending very early tomorrow morning.
710 PM EDT Fri Mar 16 2018 Aviation A large area of high pressure has settled over the Great Lakes and is producing quite a bit of sunshine. High pressure over the western Great Lakes will settle over Michigan during the next couple of days. The dry northeast feed of air will keep precipitation from the Kansas low from moving north into the cwa as the low moves east this weekend. Clear skies and light winds will let temperatures fall into the lower 20s tonight.
645 PM CDT Fri Mar 16 2018 For the 00Z TAFs, surface winds will diminish by sunset this evening and then become north at generally less than 10 knots at the terminal sites as a weak cold front moves across the region.
Upper level northwest confluent flow allowing high pressure to hold over Lower Michigan tonight will lead to another good radiating night with the current surface dew pts residing in the lower teens and winds going calm overnight. The upper level low currently over the Central Plains will be shearing off to the east and tracking through the Ohio Valley on Saturday.
A cold front currently spread across northwest Oklahoma will continue to push southward as the evening progresses, resulting in surface winds shifting out of the north at around 10 kts.
1250 AM EDT Sat Mar 17 2018 Aviation A large area of high pressure has settled over the Great Lakes and is producing quite a bit of sunshine. High pressure over the western Great Lakes will settle over Michigan during the next couple of days. The dry northeast feed of air will keep precipitation from the Kansas low from moving north into the cwa as the low moves east this weekend. Clear skies and light winds will let temperatures fall into the lower 20s tonight.
Overnight lows tonight will range from the upper 50s to near 60 across the Wiregrass to the low to mid 50s east of a line from Tallahassee to Albany.
Ridge axis remains positioned over central FL, allowing for SE flow to develop tonight. Moisture will slightly increase, leading to higher dewpoints and min temperatures in the low 50s, significantly closer to average compared to past nights. (prev discussion) On Sat, a south/southwest wind flow will boost high temps into the lower-mid 80s, except for readings around 80 along the coast. Axis of high pressure ridge over or just south of the waters will provide a south to southwest wind flow about 10 knots or less, except 10-15 knots late Sat offshore.
The only other change was to lower sky cover through midnight prior to the lower clouds arriving across east Texas and north Louisiana. Despite the fact plenty of instability is available, upper level ridging will contribute to subsidence across the region, lowering the chance for any severe weather. Also another chance of showers/t-storms return to the region as a cold front moves to near the Interstate 30 corridor and stalls out.
630 PM CDT Fri Mar 16 2018 The main short-term forecast concern is a stacked low pressure system centered over southern Nebraska/northern Kansas early this afternoon. The low is forecast to drift to the east through tonight, bringing precipitation into northeast Iowa and far southwest Wisconsin during the evening and overnight hours. In short, think the far northern edge of the precipitation should remain mostly snow, with a mix or change over to light freezing rain across our far southern areas during the overnight. As the low departs to the east, high pressure will begin to build in Saturday afternoon, leading to decreasing clouds, light winds, and above normal temperatures.
623 PM CDT Fri Mar 16 2018 Potent system moving through the region today creating areas of freezing rain and thunderstorms across our CWA. Freezing rain has been limited to extreme northeast Nebraska but have gotten a few reports of light icing on elevated surfaces in western Iowa. A few bands will continue to pivot north across the area, but feel current headlines will work-out as freezing rain gradually changes over to sleet along the SD/Neb border, so only a little additional icing is expected yet this afternoon. As the main low continues to slide east overnight, cooler air dropping south will turn precipitation over to a sleet or snow mix before precipitation ends all-together as the system pulls east. Weak high pressure moves overhead for Saturday however another system approaches the region later this weekend.
The only other change was to lower sky cover through midnight prior to the lower clouds arriving across east Texas and north Louisiana.
Despite the fact plenty of instability is available, upper level ridging will contribute to subsidence across the region, lowering the chance for any severe weather. Also another chance of showers/t-storms return to the region as a cold front moves to near the Interstate 30 corridor and stalls out.
Even so, the temperatures after midnight, mainly north of a line from Galesburg to Danville, will drop to near or just below freezing. However, the NAM has a deeper layer of freezing temps below that to about 1000 ft, leaning towards sleet. GFS is a bit warmer. and both models are right at the freezing mark at the surface. Weak ridging moves back into place through the remainder of the weekend.
1005 PM EDT Fri Mar 16 2018 High pressure through tonight. Low pressure system brings a bag of wintry mixed pcpn late overnight tonight into Saturday morning.
cold temps and light winds will remain the rule across Northern Michigan for the remainder of the night thanks to strong high pressure and dry air thru the column. High pressure continues to build into the region and dry air follows it in. This high and dry air will stick with us through the next several days.
648 PM CDT Fri Mar 16 2018 Sleet and freezing rain continue to use up more of the available moisture for areas along and north of I-90. Snowfall amounts will be much lower than previously forecast, but slick and potentially dangerous driving conditions will still exist with freezing rain changing to drizzle throughout the overnight hours. Active forecast in the short term with band of precipitation lifting to the northwest across the forecast area wrapping around a low pressure center across eastern Nebraska. As the upper level low weakens and shifts east, atmosphere dries out from aloft. With residual lift through deep saturated layer could see some light drizzle/freezing drizzle through the evening hours.
Temperatures are hovering right around the thawing/freezing mark, leading to a wintry mix of precipitation for many locations. Best model data continues to indicate that any freezing rain impact will be minimal at best. Some of that will be difficult to notice or measure, given that the snow is snow wet and would easily melt on contact or shortly thereafter with the recent warmer ground conditions.
1153 PM CDT Fri Mar 16 2018 The main short-term forecast concern is a stacked low pressure system centered over southern Nebraska/northern Kansas early this afternoon. The low is forecast to drift to the east through tonight, bringing precipitation into northeast Iowa and far southwest Wisconsin during the evening and overnight hours. In short, think the far northern edge of the precipitation should remain mostly snow, with a mix or change over to light freezing rain across our far southern areas during the overnight. As the low departs to the east, high pressure will begin to build in Saturday afternoon, leading to decreasing clouds, light winds, and above normal temperatures.
To the east, yesterday's storm system was spinning, in dramatic fashion, as a vertically stacked upper level low dragging a cold front through eastern Kansas. These high clouds were associated with a strengthening anticyclonic jet and upper level ridge. Water vapor imagery showed a trough moving onto the coast of northern California to the west of the ridge. The aforementioned ridge should keep things quiet the rest of today and for the first part of tomorrow before the approaching trough begins to impinge on eastern Utah and western Colorado. Colder air will quickly fill in from the Northwest behind the cold front late Saturday night.
Expect clouds to continue to increase tonight as isentropic upglide with a warm front increases. We may see a break in the rain midday Saturday before additional scattered showers and thunderstorms try to develop along and ahead of a cold front by the later afternoon hours. Chattanooga Airport, TN 55 73 49 68 / 70 40 20 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 50 71 48 64 / 60 50 30 0 Oak Ridge, TN 50 71 47 65 / 70 50 40 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 41 65 43 61 / 70 70 60 0.
A weak cold front with light NE winds will arrive after midnight, followed by thick high clouds lowering to around 10k feet AGL toward daybreak. A mid/upper level low over north central Kansas this afternoon is causing today's dry and windy conditions. Sunset and further movement of the low away from the area will see these conditions abate this evening.
508 PM MDT Fri Mar 16 2018 Staunch upper level low over the central plains is beginning to move off to the east after stalling for a bit this morning. As the mid level dry slot works north, snow will likely end across the eastern FA with freezing drizzle returning for a period this evening. Attention then turns toward the remainder of the western CONUS trough, which will eject into the central plains later this weekend. This system will have a decent WAA signal, which would support some potential for freezing rain and sleet.
Cold front currently moving into NW AR/SE OK will continue pushing southeast overnight. /Issued 909 PM CDT Fri Mar 16 2018/ Cold front currently moving into northeast Oklahoma this evening, resulting in a wind shift more towards the north along with cooler air. Less wind tomorrow and slightly cooler temperatures will improve fire danger over the critical conditions observed Friday afternoon.
1001 PM EDT Fri Mar 16 2018 Low pressure will remain northeast of the region through the weekend.
Temperatures were near 70F with dewpoints in the lower 60s.
836 PM MDT Fri Mar 16 2018 Snow was diminishing over southeast Montana this evening, as the storm system that brought rain/freezing rain and snow continued to move out.
The pesky precipitation on the back side of the upper low has finally ended over northeast Colorado. Models show an upper ridge push across Colorado tonight. southwesterly flow aloft is expected as the next upper trough develops west and northwest of us. Will go with a tad of pops over the high mountains late Saturday afternoon with the approaching moisture and system. For temperatures, Saturday's highs will be about 5 C warmer than today's highs. Flow aloft over Colorado will be out of the southwest, ahead of an upper trough moving into the Great Basin.
921 PM EST Fri Jan 19 2018 High pressure lingers across the deep south tonight.
704 PM EST Fri Jan 19 2018 Low pressure around 990mb tracking north of Lk Superior this aftn. Temps have stayed in the low to mid 30s elsewhere.
A weak upper level trough remains over the region. Weak upper level ridging will keep our area dry through Saturday.
630 PM EST Fri Jan 19 2018 High pressure will move east through the southeast states this weekend.
1005 PM EST Fri Jan 19 2018 High pressure will prevail through the weekend.
However, where skies have cleared, temperatures are in the upper 20s to the lower 30s. Short term model guidance is capturing the low cloudiness well, just above the 850 hPa level. This low-level moisture is expected to continue to advect northward and we expect skies to continue to cloud up from the SW to the NE overnight. Low clouds streaming northeastward from Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley will continue to surge forward, moving into central Kentucky after midnight and spreading throughout the region Saturday. By evening and into Saturday night patchy light rain or drizzle will be possible in a good low level moisture feed behind high pressure off the SC/GA coast. Temperatures will remain above freezing Saturday night so any precipitation will stay liquid.
Surface analysis this evening places a ridge of high pressure centered over the Mid-Atlantic States and Southeast United States. /issued 311 PM CST Fri Jan 19 2018/ Clouds continue to spread into the Mid-South ahead of a weak upper level low pressure system that is developing over East Texas. The clouds have kept temperatures cooler than expected today. The clouds will likely hang around the entire weekend as the weak upper level low tracks eastward through Southern Mississippi on Saturday and another low pressure system develops over the Plains. Southerly winds will continue across the area which will continue to help bring warmer temperatures into the area. Expect highs on Saturday to be about 10 degrees warmer than today.
A -30C H5 open wave is expected to push westward into Utah Saturday afternoon, with showers developing along and ahead of the associated cold front west to east during the day Saturday across eastern Utah and western Colorado. As the front pushes eastward Saturday night, much of western Colorado will see rain and/or snow with cooler air lowering snow levels throughout the night.
555 PM EST Fri Jan 19 2018 High pressure provides dry and milder weather through Saturday.
Upper level trough will begin to close off the from mean flow aloft by Saturday afternoon, which will result in slower propagation of snowfall developing across the plains. Believe most areas along and north of I-80 towards the lower North Platte river valley, east of the Laramie Range, will be mainly dry through early Saturday afternoon with highs in the mid 30's to mid 40's before temperatures quickly fall through the afternoon. As the upper level low nears the four corners area late Saturday evening, snow is then expected to develop and move northeast into the northern Nebraska panhandle for locations east of I-25.
An upper level ridge will continue to nudge into the region and with decreasing onshore flow combining with cooling surface temperatures scattered showers will slowly become more isolated overnight. A warm front will move through the area Saturday, continuing mostly light precipitation through the day before moving north later Saturday afternoon.
The low-level ridge axis remains just north of ECFL thru the period.
417 PM MST Fri Jan 19 2018 Water vapor shows digging trof as it moves onshore the west coast, with broad sw flow across much of the western CONUS extending into the Northern Plains. Radar echoes extend eastward into southeastern MT and north central WY, but any precip reaching the ground is relatively light (outside of the higher elevations). Upper trof will continue to dig overnight as it progresses eastward, with upper low beginning to cut off over the Desert Southwest. Light snow will begin to spread into our western zones with northern stream trof working through the Northern Rockies. Splitting trof continues to work slowly eastward on Saturday with broad lift associated with right entrance region of jet and lower/mid level frontogenesis spreading across our area.
842 PM CST Fri Jan 19 2018 Winds remain elevated across the southeast, but they'll be coming down steadily over the next few hours as the low level jet mix pushes off to the east. The high clouds and mixing may help to keep temps up a few degrees vs what we had in the fcst.
945 PM EST Fri Jan 19 2018 High pressure passes to the south through Saturday, while deepening low pressure tracks across Eastern Canada. A weak cold front will pass through the area Saturday night.
1000 PM EST Fri Jan 19 2018 High pressure will move east through the southeast states this weekend.
Low cloud cover encompassing much of the deep south is responsible for holding temps a bit warmer thus far this evening across the region, therefore slight upward adjustment made to expected overnight temps. With the cloud cover continuing, temperatures tonight will be considerably warmer than lately with most locations not dropping below freezing.
Things look on track for a cool, but warmer night than the past two with lows ranging from the upper 40s and low 50s over the interior and Gulf coast to upper 50s/around 60 along the east coast. With the moderating easterly flow, overnight lows will be 10-15 degrees warmer than last night. THIS WEEKEND: High pressure to our north slides east on Saturday, leaving the area under moderate low level easterly flow.
Most short-term guidance indicates the low clouds will continue to expand north and west tonight into central and north central Oklahoma. There will likely be a west to east gradient in low temperatures as the low clouds are not expected to affect western Oklahoma and adjacent parts of north Texas. Low temperatures across the west are forecast to fall into the low 30Fs, while mid-40Fs are expected farther east.
924 PM EST Fri Jan 19 2018 High pressure to the south will dominate the weather through the weekend.
933 PM EST Fri Jan 19 2018 High pressure will push off to the east through tonight.
Only feature to focus on tonight is the potential for some patchy freezing fog across a few southwestern valleys. Also, kept the mention of freezing fog into West Yellowstone due to recent observations. As the snow tapers off and partial clearing of skies occurs behind the snow, patchy mist/freezing fog may develop in the valleys of Southwest Montana this evening and around daybreak on Saturday.
However, temperatures will fall to just AOA freezing along with light enough winds for a frost threat. Regardless, this region has seen numerous days of frost and sub-freezing temps recently so the impacts to agriculture should be lower. Thickening BKN/OVC cirrus clouds around 20k feet will fill in across the area by early morning ahead of an approaching upper level trough. High pressure to our north continues a prevailing E/NE wind through the weekend with no headlines expected.
631 PM EST Fri Jan 19 2018 High pressure will push off to the east through tonight.
/issued 311 PM CST Fri Jan 19 2018/ Clouds continue to spread into the Mid-South ahead of a weak upper level low pressure system that is developing over East Texas. The clouds have kept temperatures cooler than expected today. The clouds will likely hang around the entire weekend as the weak upper level low tracks eastward through Southern Mississippi on Saturday and another low pressure system develops over the Plains. Southerly winds will continue across the area which will continue to help bring warmer temperatures into the area. Expect highs on Saturday to be about 10 degrees warmer than today.
913 PM EST Fri Jan 19 2018 High pressure provides dry and milder weather through Saturday.
Lows will drop to near or just below freezing across all inland locations and mid to upper 30s long the immediate coast. With high pressure overhead and a cool and dry airmass still in place, the only hindrance to radiational cooling tonight may be the approach of some high cloudiness from the west. These clouds should help keep temperatures several degrees warmer than last night. However, normally colder locations will likely drop to near (or just below freezing) for one more night.
In areas that remained clearer longer, radiational cooling helped lower temperatures into the mid/upper 30s, while readings in the low to mid 40s are being experienced across central and western areas underneath these clouds. These clouds will help to keep low temperatures a couple degrees warmer than previously thought. Still, with dewpoints in the 20s, temperatures will fall off a few more degrees -- with a gradient from the low to mid 30s in Northwest Alabama to the upper 20s in Northeast Alabama existing by early Saturday morning.
Temps on Saturday could be quite challenging, balancing the higher dewpoints and warm air moving northward with the weak sun of January and anticipated stratus clouds. Temperatures have already hit the low to mid 50s across much of the area as of 300 PM, and similar if not slightly warmer temperatures are likely on Saturday. The one potential problem for getting much warmer than today is clouds.
933 PM CST Fri Jan 19 2018 Upper low near Houston with much off shore weather wise. /issued 227 PM CST Fri Jan 19 2018/ Closed upper low currently noted in wv imagery skirting across our srn areas, parallel to the nrn Gulf coastline, to continue ewd tonight. Models suggest that a few shwrs could accompany the low tonight/Saturday as it drifts ewd, with areas in its wake experiencing some light shwrs/drizzle. Sly sfc flow to continue increasing across our region through Saturday, as lee trof deepens ahead of an approaching upper trof over srn CA/NV.
A low amplitude trough is currently over the Northern Rockies causing cooler and showery weather.
Low clouds streaming northeastward from Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley will continue to surge forward, moving into central Kentucky after midnight and spreading throughout the region Saturday. By evening and into Saturday night patchy light rain or drizzle will be possible in a good low level moisture feed behind high pressure off the SC/GA coast. Temperatures will remain above freezing Saturday night so any precipitation will stay liquid.
Meanwhile, a weak upper level system, over the lower MS, valley, will spread cloudiness eastward this evening.
Temperatures along the island chain are in the lower to middle 60s with a gentle to moderate northeast to east breeze in place.
716 PM EST Fri Jan 19 2018 With high pressure passing south of the area, a southwest flow will bring milder air through the weekend, with a warm front passing Saturday.
641 PM EST Fri Jan 19 2018 High pressure lingers across the deep south tonight.
647 PM EST Fri Jan 19 2018 High pressure will prevail through the weekend.
/issued 324 PM CST Fri Jan 19 2018/ An upper level trough is digging southward over the west coast, and an upper low is over the Texas coast. The upper trough out west will move further east on Saturday putting the area under southwest flow aloft.
632 PM EST Fri Jan 19 2018 High pressure passes to the south through Saturday, while deepening low pressure tracks across Eastern Canada. A weak cold front will pass through the area Saturday night.