Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
634 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015 /00Z TAFS/ WEAK COLD FRONT SAGGING INTO THE I-20 CORRIDOR NEAR KABI (ABILENE) EARLY THIS EVENING. THE STRONGER INSTABILITY IS FOUND BEHIND THE WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA, WHERE DEWPOINTS INCREASE INTO THE MID 60S. POPS WERE CARRIED AFTER 00Z FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA ONLY DURING THE EVENING HOURS, BUT WERE MAINTAINED ACROSS THE NORTH DUE OVERNIGHT TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL BECOME MORE DIFFUSE WITH TIME AND LOW-LEVEL FORCING WILL NOT BE AS FOCUSED. WHAT'S LEFT OF A COLD FRONT THAT WASHES OUT ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING, WILL CONTINUE TO MEANDER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
754 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015 A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. THE FOCUS FOR TOMORROW BECOMES UPPER TROUGH/COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
/ISSUED 319 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015/ TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON ARE RUNNING A FEW DEGREES COOLER BEHIND THE WEAK COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH LAST NIGHT. BUT THE LOWER HUMIDITY WILL MAKE FOR MORE TOLERABLE CONDITIONS. AND WHILE THE LOW LEVEL AIRMASS MAY BE DRY AND STABLE.
COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON WAS LOCATED ROUGHLY ALONG I-85. WHEN THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHERLY.
/ISSUED 803 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015/ THE MID LEVEL RIDGE WAS CENTERED OVER WESTERN TX. DRIER AIR MIXED DOWN TO THE SURFACE OVER IN WESTERN AR TODAY BENEATH THE RIDGE. STORMS THAT DEVELOPED IN THE TX PANHANDLE AND WESTERN OK IN THE LOW LVL THETAE AXIS DIED IN CENTRAL OK. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT PLAYER IN OUR WEATHER OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
717 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TONIGHT. THIS HIGH CENTER WILL STAY OVER MOST OF REGION THIS WEEKEND.
WITH A BIT OF A DOWNTREND EACH DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER THE AREA.
/ISSUED 921 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015/ HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE MIDSOUTH THIS EVENING. WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL DEWPOINTS.
/ISSUED 634 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015/ /00Z TAFS/ WEAK COLD FRONT SAGGING INTO THE I-20 CORRIDOR NEAR KABI (ABILENE) EARLY THIS EVENING. THE STRONGER INSTABILITY IS FOUND BEHIND THE WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA, WHERE DEWPOINTS INCREASE INTO THE MID 60S. POPS WERE CARRIED AFTER 00Z FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA ONLY DURING THE EVENING HOURS, BUT WERE MAINTAINED ACROSS THE NORTH DUE OVERNIGHT TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL BECOME MORE DIFFUSE WITH TIME AND LOW-LEVEL FORCING WILL NOT BE AS FOCUSED. WHAT'S LEFT OF A COLD FRONT THAT WASHES OUT ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING, WILL CONTINUE TO MEANDER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
1256 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015 THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW BROAD HIGH PRESSURE IN PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL REESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE OHIO VALLEY.
CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS HAVE SET THE STAGE FOR A RIDGE VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT OVERNIGHT AND FOG FORMATION IN OUR VALLEYS AND NEAR BODIES OF WATER. ALONG WITH A MODEST RIDGE VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT ACROSS THE AREA. SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR OVERNIGHT ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO ONCE AGAIN DIP INTO THE UPPER 50S IN THE VALLEYS AND LOWER 60S ON THE RIDGES.
950 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015 LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ROTATING ON HUDSON BAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. AND DEW PTS WERE IN THE LOWER 60S TO MID 50S. THESE ELEVATED NOCTURNAL STORMS WILL GET AN ADDED BOOST BY THE LOW LEVEL JET.
952 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TONIGHT. THIS HIGH CENTER WILL STAY OVER MOST OF REGION THIS WEEKEND.
632 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015 00Z TAF CYCLE UPPER HIGH BREAKS DOWN TONIGHT AS AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES THE PANHANDLES FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL WAVER OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN OF NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND INTO THE PIEDMONT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LIGHT WINDS AND LOWER DEWPOINTS WILL HELP RESULT IN LOWS IN THE LOW-MID 60S ACROSS OUR NW AND TRIAD ZONES. A LITTLE COOLER THAN WE'VE SEEN THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS. UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL FEATURE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES/FOUR CORNERS AREA. EXTENDING INTO THE PACIFIC NW WHILE A BROAD L/W TROUGH COVERS THE UPPER MID WEST EASTWARD TO NEW ENGLAND. THE L/W TROUGH WILL UNDERGO SOME MINOR AMPLIFICATION THANKS TO A SERIES OF S/W ROTATING AROUND THE HUDSON BAY UPPER LOW.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT CONTINUES TO KEEP THE WEATHER VERY WARM BUT RELATIVELY QUIET. UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND MT WILL MAINTAIN DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH VFR CONDITIONS PERSISTING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
MOSTLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND IN OREGON FROM THE CASCADES EAST.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.
Highs in the lower 90s and dewpoints in the lower 70s will spell heat indices maxing out around 100 most afternoons, which is not enough for heat advisory concerns but will still be uncomfortable for those with outdoor plans. Temperatures will be impacted by any clouds/precipitation and also the eventual position of the boundary, but should generally be a bit cooler in the majority of the CWA during the daytime hours. High pressure continues to affect the area and this should result in just high level clouds and light winds throughout the forecast.
842 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015 A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DISSIPATE AS IT PUSHES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT AND WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH.
1018 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015 A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THE FOCUS FOR TOMORROW BECOMES UPPER TROUGH/COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
539 PM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015 PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE PATTERN ACROSS WESTERN US THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. WITH WEAK FLOW AND A SECONDARY WEAK TROUGH AXIS/SURFACE CONVERGENT ZONE ALONG THE KS CO BORDER EXTENDING SOUTH INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KS. THE ENTIRE TRI STATE REGION WILL SEE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BROUGHT ABOUT BY A STRONG AMPLIFIED 500/700 MB RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY.
WITH INCREASED MOISTURE OVER THE HIGHER FOOTHILLS STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO FORM AND PRODUCE BRIEF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN AND LIGHTING INTO THE EVENING HOURS. LOWS WILL BE BACK INTO THE LOWER 60S UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT. FOR SATURDAY THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE SOUTH AND EAST INCREASING MOISTURE OVER THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE STATE. CONVECTION WILL MAINLY BE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND SOUTH OF I-70 BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL RETURN TO THE LOWER 90S FOR THE PLAINS AND UPPER 60S FOR THE MOUNTAINS.
00Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS AN AMPLIFIED NORTHERN STREAM FLOW CONSISTING OF LONGWAVE RIDGING OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST/WESTERN CANADA AND DOWNSTREAM TROUGHING INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEASTERN STATES. FOLLOWING THE WESTERN RIDGE SOUTHWARD WE FIND A RIDGE CENTER OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES/SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS CIRCULATION OF THIS RIDGE DOES NOT QUITE REACH OVER TO OUR REGION. AND LEAVES THE FLORIDA PENINSULA UNDER A MORE ILL-DEFINED MID-LEVEL FLOW REGIME BETWEEN THIS RIDGE AND ANOTHER LONGWAVE UPPER RIDGE TO THE EAST OF THE BAHAMAS. THE FORECAST WATERS WILL REMAIN BETWEEN A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS DOWN TOWARD THE FLORIDA STRAITS THROUGH AT LEAST THE WEEKEND.
N/NE FLOW ALOFT DUE TO UPPER RIDGE CENTER TO THE W AND DEEP TROUGH OVER THE MID MS VALLEY/GREAT LAKES REGION WILL AID IN THIS VERY DRY AIR.
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION WILL KEEP VFR CONDITIONS THRU THE FCST PERIOD FOR BOTH KMSL AND KHSV. /ISSUED 304 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015/ WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S. THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL REMAIN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH RIDGING TO THE WEST AND AN UPPER TROUGH TO THE NORTH LEAVING THE LOCAL AREA WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND A DRY NORTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE COLUMN. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR SUNNY/CLEAR SKIES WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S AND LOWS IN THE 60S THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HEIGHTS RISE SLIGHTLY MON/TUE AS THE RIDGE TO THE WEST NOSES INTO THE AREA.
WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SAN BERNARDINO MOUNTAINS AND THE HIGH DESERTS DISSIPATED QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING. A ROGUE SHOWER COULD PASS THROUGH THE HIGH DESERTS OVERNIGHT OTHERWISE DO NOT REALLY SEE ANY ADDITIONAL THREAT OF CONVECTION UNDER THIS PATTERN. SOMEWHAT WARMER BUT ONLY NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE RIDGE TO THE EAST WILL BUILD SOUTHWEST AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH LINGERS OFF OF THE WEST COAST. 31/1200 UTC GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER IN THE EXTENDED WITH THE LOCATION OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. WHILE THE GFS HAS HIGHER HEIGHTS OVER THE REGION WITH THE RIDGE CLOSER TO THE SE.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/GFS AND NAM STREAMLINE OUTPUT CONTINUE TO DEPICT THE UPPER TROUGH OVER CNTRL TX. CONCUR WITH THE GFS/NAM/ECMWF DETERMINISTIC OUTPUT THAT THE UPPER TROUGH N-S AXIS WL MEANDER OVER THE CWA DRG THE PERIOD WITH THE BULK OF THE SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT (700-300MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE) OVR THE ERN CWA/MSA.
/ISSUED 1107 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/ A BROAD UPPER TROF REMAINS OVER THE MIDSOUTH THIS MORNING. THE TROF MAY PRODUCE ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AROUND PEAK HEATING. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE MIDSOUTH WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD TODAY LEAVING A WEAKNESS IN THE UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS ACROSS THE REGION. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW ALONG THE ALABAMA COAST WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH CENTRAL AL THEN INTO NORTHERN GA BY EARLY THIS EVENING. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE LOCATED TO THE WEST OF THE MIDSOUTH WHILE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING INCREASES TO THE EAST. DID MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST AR AND THE MO BOOTHEEL CLOSER TO THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SINCE BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS INDICATE THIS POSSIBILITY.
UPPER LOW TO OUR SOUTH MIGRATING NORTH NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.
A 12 DEGREE TEMP RISE FROM MOST 10 AM READINGS WILL YIELD AFTN HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S WHICH ONCE AGAIN APPEARS ON TRACK FOR TODAY.
AN UPPER LOW OVER GEORGIA/ALABAMA WAS CHURNING TOWARDS THE SOUTH ATLANTIC STATES. THIS FEATURE WILL PHASE WITH THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TONIGHT. EXTENDING THE RIDGE FROM THE GREAT LAKES SOUTHWEST TO THE RIO GRANDE.
LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO THE SOUTH AS INVERTED TROUGH SHIFTS SLOWLY WESTWARD INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ON THE BACKSIDE OF LOW LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH IN THE EASTERN GULF. STILL WITH THE HIGH MOISTURE IN PLACE. THE LATEST GFS MODEL RUN SHOWS SLOW MOVING INVERTED TROUGH OUT IN THE EASTERN GULF. (PREVIOUS DISCUSSION) LINGERING TROUGHINESS OVER EXTREME NE GULF OF MEXICO AND N FL AND S GA AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE POOL DAMPENS AND ABSORBED. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY EASE AS LOW PRESSURE TROUGH PUSHES AWAY INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO WHILE THE ATLANTIC RIDGE NOSES BACK INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.
116 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015 ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF TONIGHT, AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE NORTHEAST. RIDGE AXIS SLIDES EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT, BRINGING AN END TO ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER NY/PA.
THE LOCAL ATMOSPHERE LIKELY HAS STABILIZED SOMEWHAT OWING TO WIDESPREAD RAIN AND ASSOCIATED COOLER AND NEGATIVELY BUOYANT AIR AT LOW LEVELS. A LARGE CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IS ONGOING OVER THE LOWER STRAITS OF FLORIDA BETWEEN 20 AND 60 NAUTICAL MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KEY WEST. MOST OF THE LOWER AND MIDDLE KEYS ARE RAIN-FREE. AIR TEMPERATURES HAVE RECOVERED TO THE MID 80S IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE KEYS. FORECASTS -- THE LOCAL WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL BE GOVERNED PRIMARILY BY A DEEP LAYER MEAN ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC BETWEEN BERMUDA AND THE BAHAMAS.
204 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015 WEAK LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST WILL DRIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST TODAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP THE COAST MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS INTO THE AREA THROUGH LATE WEEK.
Overnight lows with clear skies look to be in the low to mid 60s. For Monday, a weak trough will push towards western Kansas with light southeast winds becoming light south. An upper level ridge along with downslope low level southwesterly winds will lead to hot temperatures with values well into the 90s.
A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS THIS MORNING AND BRING SHOWERS AND BREEZY WINDS. SOUTH WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE ONSHORE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND WESTERN CANADA.
311 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015 UPPER LOWS OVER SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND THE BIG BEND AREA OF TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING FROM THE CAROLINAS INTO EASTERN TEXAS. A WEAK TROF. GEORGIA UPPER LOW WILL GRADUALLY MOVE TOWARD THE ATLANTIC COAST OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS WHILE THE BIG BEND LOW WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN TEXAS.
249 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015 A BROAD UPPER TROF CURRENTLY OVER THE AREA WILL DRIFT WEST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE EAST. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE MIDSOUTH AS DAYTIME HEATING IS INTERACTING WITH THE UPPER TROF. CAN/T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OCCURRING OVER THE REST OF THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS BUT OVERALL EXPECT A DRY PERIOD AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA.
DESPITE A HEALTHY COVERAGE OF MOSTLY TRANSPARENT CIRRUS, RADIATING CONDITIONS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENTLY FAVORABLE FOR IFR/LIFR TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS A TROUGH SITS OVER THE WEST COAST. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS NOW DISSIPATING OVER NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA. PARTICULARLY ALOFT ON RIDGE TOPS. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS ALLOWING COOLER AIR TO MIX ONTO COASTAL LAND AREAS REDUCING AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES BACK INTO THE 60S.
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE WEST COAST INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW AND THE MARINE LAYER THROUGH MIDWEEK.
124 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015 WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING SHOWER CHANCES TODAY ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION. SHOWER/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH THE APPROACH OF A SLOW MOVING UPPER TROUGH. PROXIMITY TO VORT LOBE PLUS TERRAIN EFFECTS MAY ALLOW FOR A BIT BETTER COVERAGE ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN RIDGES.
MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH CROSSING NORTHERN IDAHO TONIGHT SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF THIS AREA.
135 PM PDT SUN AUG 30 2015 HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THROUGH MID WEEK AS DRY WEATHER PREVAILS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
247 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015 A BROAD LONGWAVE MID-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDED FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI. TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS TODAY WITH A POSITIVE TILTED RIDGE ANCHORED WEST OVER THE ROCKIES. TO THE LOWER-MID 90S NORTH OF I-20 WHERE SUNSHINE HAS BEEN MORE ABUNDANT.
A SLOW MOVING MID-LEVEL TROUGH LIED JUST TO OUR NORTHWEST WHILE A GULF TROUGH WAS ADVANCING NORTHWARD. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WAS SITUATED OVER THE CAROLINAS WITH A WEAK COOL FRONT TO OUR NORTHWEST. THE LATEST NEAR TERM AND HI-RES MODEL DATA IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. THE UPPER TROUGH WEAKENS TONIGHT. MONDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE A RELATIVELY DRIER DAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO WEAKEN THOUGH GIVEN WARM TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S.
Weak upper low spinning across the Edwards Plateau near Ozona will slowly shift eastward today and tonight. As temperatures warm this afternoon and the weak upper level low remains across the area, isolated embedded thunderstorms will continue to be possible, so thunder was added to the grids. /ISSUED 338 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/ (Today and Tonight) An upper level low/weakness will remain across West Central Texas today and slowly drift south. Temperatures are forecast to range from the mid 90s across the Big Country, where less cloud cover is expected, to the low 90s across the Interstate 10 corridor.
THEN MID 80S ARE POSSIBLE WITH COOLER TEMPS NEAR THE LAKE. THESE TEMPS COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S MAY PUSH HEAT INDEX VALUES INTO THE LOWER 90S MONDAY AFTERNOON.
UPPER TROUGHING IS SITUATED OVER THE PACIFIC NW. WHAT IS LEFT OF THE COLD FRONT STRETCHES FROM EASTERN MO DOWN INTO SW OK WITH A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE RED RIVER. PATTERN IS EXPECTED REMAIN FAIRLY STABLE THROUGH THESE EXTENDED PERIODS WITH UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE NW CONUS WITH A BROAD AREA OF RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEAST.
AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. THE TROUGH. BEFORE THE TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS S OF THE AREA.
1230 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015 CONSENSUS AMONGST THE MEDIUM RANGE MODEL INDICATE THAT THE UPPER LVL LONGWAVE TROF STRETCHING FROM ALASKA TO THE PACIFIC NW WILL BROADEN JUST A BIT WHEN IT MOVES INTO WRN CANADA LATER ON MID WEEK. A VERY BROAD UPPER RIDGE WILL ENCOMPASS THE CNTRL AND ERN CONUS.
335 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015 UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES AND THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE PANHANDLES EARLY THIS WEEK.
TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT SW FLOW ALOFT WILL INCREASE TODAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH CROSSES INTO THE PAC NW. BREEZY SWRLY LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS WILL KEEP WARM AND DRY AIR OVER THE AREA TODAY. SURFACE OBS ACROSS THE NRN/NERN BLKHLS AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS SHOWING STRONG DOWNSLOPING KEEPING OVERNIGHT TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S ALONG THE I90 CORRIDOR. COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE THIS AFTN INTO TONIGHT. TEMPS MON WILL BE A GOOD 10-15 DEGREES COOLER WITH HIGHS REACHING THE MID 70S TO MID 80S.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THIS WEEK. A COLD FRONT COULD COOL US DOWN BY LATE WEEK. A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY BRING A SHOWER TO THE WESTERN MAINE MOUNTAINS DURING THE DAY. DRY AND A BIT COOLER IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT.
311 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015 THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CURRENTLY MOVING INTO EASTERN ALABAMA. THE SPIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW IS VISIBLE WITH EVERY FORM OF REMOTE SENSING DATA. EXPECT THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH OFF TO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES DECREASING THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND SHOULD COME TO AN END FOR THE MOST PART DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS EAST ALABAMA ON MONDAY BUT THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST AND PW VALUES WILL BE DECREASING SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE AREA.
A COLD FRONT OVER EASTERN UTAH WILL WEAKEN THIS EVENING. WITH THE REGION BETWEEN A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS IDAHO AND MONTANA THIS AFTERNOON. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT HAS MOVED INTO EASTERN UTAH AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY WHERE THE AIRMASS IS MORE MOIST AND THERE ARE GOOD DYNAMICS. TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT ARE NOTICEABLY COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. AS THE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES AND THE COLD FRONT WEAKENS.
428 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015 A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH NORTHWEST MAINE LATER TONIGHT.
Upper low will continue to lift northeastward overnight and gradually weaken. The dry mid/upper level air drawn northward by the upper low will limit shower activity overnight with the best chances for rain over the eastern Big Bend counties.
THEN MOST OF IT WILL END OVERNIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER AL/GA LIFTS UP THE APPALACHIANS. AFTER THE UPPER LOW PULLS AWAY FROM MIDDLE TN. AND IS REPLACED BY WEAK RIDGING ALOFT. THEN IT WILL BE A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL WITH INCREASED RIDGING THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.
THIS SURGE OF WARMER AND MOIST AIR WILL CONTINUE INTO THE DAY TODAY AS THE LOW TRACKS NORTH AND EAST OVER THE CAROLINAS. THIS IS OCCURRING UNDERNEATH A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND WILL BE FOR THE SHORT TERM. TROUGHING WILL BE INCREASINGLY ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE LOWER 48. WITH RIDGING TAKING HOLD ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION. BUT GIVEN THE LOW POPS AND UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING AND LOCATION.
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CAN BE SEEN CLEARLY SPINNING ACROSS THE AREA ON CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. PRECIPITATION IS WRAPPING AROUND THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THIS LOW AND EXPECT BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR. RAIN CHANCES WILL EVENTUALLY DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW TRACKS TO THE NORTHEAST.
217 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015 ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF TONIGHT, AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE NORTHEAST. RIDGE AXIS SLIDES EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT, BRINGING AN END TO ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER NY/PA. A TROF WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE WYOMING VALLEY AS IT WASHES OUT MONDAY AFTERNOON, PERHAPS SPURRING AN ISOLATED SHOWER.
345 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015 COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA SUNDAY AFTERNOON IS NEARLY ALIGNED WITH THE FLOW ALOFT AND THUS IS MOVING SLOWLY EAST. KEPT POPS ON THE LOW SIDE WITH NOT MUCH MORE THAN 30 PERCENT POPS TONIGHT ENDING MONDAY MORNING. COOLER MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.
258 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015 HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
326 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015 ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF TONIGHT, AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE NORTHEAST. RIDGE AXIS SLIDES EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT, BRINGING AN END TO ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER NY/PA. A TROF WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE WYOMING VALLEY AS IT WASHES OUT MONDAY AFTERNOON, PERHAPS SPURRING AN ISOLATED SHOWER.
AFTERNOON STORMS WILL INITIALLY PRODUCE MORE LIGHTNING AND WIND THAN RAIN AND THE 12Z MODEL TREND HAS SHOWN THIS SLOWER MOISTENING OF THE LOWER LAYERS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL SLOWLY PUSH EAST AS SEVERAL DISTURBANCES ROTATE AROUND THE BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHWEST US.
AND SREF WERE DOING WELL ON THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD. EVEN THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS THIS MORNING WERE NOT CATCHING. MINS WILL BE WARMER DUE TO MORE WIND.
333 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015 CURRENT RADAR LOOP SHOWS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ROTATING AROUND MAIN LOW PRESSURE CENTER ALONG THE AL/GA BORDER. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING NORTH TO NORTHEAST AND WILL WEAKEN AS IT DOES. THE MODELS ARE SHOWING THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF BUILDING SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD MONDAY AND THE MOISTURE REMAINS OF ERIKA REMAINING SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. AN UPPER LOW THAT PRETTY MUCH STAYS PARKED ACROSS THE GULF STATES/NORTHERN GOMEX AND THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA. THE HIGHEST QPF SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN ZONES. AS FAR AS THE UPPER LOW GOES. ANOTHER BY-PRODUCT OF THE UPPER LOW WILL BE THAT TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 80S FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
AS UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN AL SLOWLY RETROGRADES INTO AREA BY MID WEEK. IF THE UPPER LOW MANAGES TO SHIFT WEST INTO TX.
MEDIUM MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS CONTINUES TO PIVOT EAST INTO WI. MEDIUM 588DM 500 MILLIBAR RIDGE WILL DOMINATE.
344 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015 Weak ridge will shift east with light southeast sfc-850mb flow set to develop through Monday. Guidance is fairly similar in this occurring, holding the highest accumulating precip in south central NE. As a result, highs in the lower 90s east central to mid 90s central ks is expected while lows only drop to the upper 60s and low 70s.
STILL BARELY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A STRONG/VERY WARM AND MOSTLY DRY POSITIVE TILT UPPER RIDGE. 700-500 MB RIDGE AXIS IS NOW SHIFTED EAST OF THE FRONT RANGE AS PER LATEST RAP MODEL WITH FLOW ALOFT BECOMING WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY. MODEL CROSS SECTIONS AND SOUNDINGS SHOW CONDENSATION LEVELS LOWERING OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY AS A BAND OF SHOWERS AND T-STORMS ALIGNED WITH A WEAK MID-LEVEL PERTABATION PASSES OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING. SHOULD SEE A WEAK SFC COLD FRONT SLIDING SOUTH OUT OF WYOMING. WITH A RE-ENFORCING SURGE OF SLIGHTLY COOLER AND WETTER NELY FLOW BY ABOUT MIDDAY.