Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
956 PM EDT SUN AUG 23 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW THROUGH THE WEEK. COLD FRONT THAT WILL MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY HAS JUST PASSED DETROIT. IF AN ISOLATED SHOWER DOES DEVELOP IT IS EXPECTED BE ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG THE POCONO AND CATSKILL. HIGH PRESSURE THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE OVER THE REGION IS SLOWLY BRAKING DOWN TODAY AND SLIDING TO THE EAST. EXPECTING A COLD FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS THE CWA MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
1014 PM EDT SUN AUG 23 2015 UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE COMING WEEK AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY.
/ISSUED 244 PM CDT SUN AUG 23 2015/ COLD FRONT. OVERALL LITTLE CHANGE TO FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEK WITH MODELS HAVING TIMING AND STRENGTH ISSUES WITH PROGD S/WVS THAT RIDE ALONG DOWNSTREAM PORTION OF UPPER RIDGE. ONLY CONSISTENCY IS FOR STRONGER OF THE WAVES TO AFFECT THE REGION LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK SO THAT IS WHERE THE HIGHER POPS WILL BE CONFINED.
THE COLD FRONT RESIDES IN NORTHERN OK AND AR AND WILL BE FOLLOWING IN THE WAKE OF THE BOUNDARY PRETTY QUICKLY. WITH SOME LOSS OF MOISTURE IN THE LOWEST LEVELS. EVEN TDS A BIT COOLER IN THE I-30 CORRIDOR.
1019 PM EDT SUN AUG 23 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING. THEN HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY PUSH INTO THE AREA WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH NOT MOVING IN UNTIL LATE IN THE WEEK. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE CENTERED IN THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL KEEP COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH MID WEEK. ALONG AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT. STRONG RIDGE OVER THE SW US COMBINED WITH A DEEP LOW OVER NRN GREAT LAKES WILL KEEP WNW UPR FLOW OVER MUCH OF AREA.
TYPICAL SUMMER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEK AS A LARGE AREA OF UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS PARKED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. SYNOPTICALLY A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD TOWARD OUR AREA FROM THE SOUTHEAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
721 PM EDT SUN AUG 23 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION THIS WEEK, AND PROVIDE FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER IN THE NORTHEAST.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THOUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW THROUGH THE WEEK. IF AN ISOLATED SHOWER DOES DEVELOP IT IS EXPECTED BE ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG THE POCONO AND CATSKILL. HIGH PRESSURE THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE OVER THE REGION IS SLOWLY BRAKING DOWN TODAY AND SLIDING TO THE EAST. EXPECTING A COLD FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS THE CWA MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
1144 PM CDT SUN AUG 23 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE RIDGED ACROSS MUCH OF THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT. WHILE A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND INTO WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. DRIER DEWPOINTS WILL ARRIVE OVERNIGHT AS WELL WITH VALUES IN THE LOW TO MID 40S BY LATE TONIGHT.
852 PM EDT SUN AUG 23 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST MONDAY MORNING.
/KEG/ HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN THE CONTROL OF THE MARINE FORECAST AREA.
THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT UPPER RIDGE IS BUILDING OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WITH NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. VERY FEW CLOUDS TOPPING THE RIDGE AXIS. RIDGE WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. LEE TROF STRENGTHENS MONDAY. BRINGING WARMER TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA.
CLOSE TO THE COLD FRONT. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL SWING THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE MAIN QUESTION FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS WILL BE WHETHER STORMS WILL DEVELOP JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND HOW STRONG THESE STORMS WILL BE. MUCH DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE FRONT. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL BE QUITE A BIT COOLER IN THE UPPER 70S WITH LOWS TOMORROW NIGHT DIPPING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S.
742 PM EDT SUN AUG 23 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA THIS EVENING BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO AN END AND ALLOWING SKIES TO CLEAR OVERNIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 50S WITH HIGHS MONDAY IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 70S.
620 PM CDT SUN AUG 23 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE RIDGED ACROSS MUCH OF THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT. WHILE A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND INTO WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. DRIER DEWPOINTS WILL ARRIVE OVERNIGHT AS WELL WITH VALUES IN THE LOW TO MID 40S BY LATE TONIGHT.
MONDAY WILL FEATURE A LOT LESS WIND AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE.
/ISSUED 305 PM CDT SUN AUG 23 2015/ WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA KEEPING LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE. SOME UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND SUBSIDENCE HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE REGION TODAY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER CANADA NORTHWEST OF THE GREAT LAKES. WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THIS FEATURE DOWN INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FORMING OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.
749 PM EDT SUN AUG 23 2015 A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN OVERNIGHT AS A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION WILL BE FOLLOWED BY DRY CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK.
636 PM CDT SUN AUG 23 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WAS THE DOMINANT SURFACE FEATURE ON THE HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. COMBINING THAT WITH CLEAR SKY WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE LOWER FORTIES AGAIN OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WAS BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. A BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND DRY AIR SLOWLY RETREATING. WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY AS WARM AIR ADVECTION BEGINS OVERNIGHT.
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION LATE MONDAY.
EARLY AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS NOW SPINNING OVER THE ARROWHEAD OF MN.
THE HIGHLY ANTICIPATED COLD FRONT THAT WILL HELP BRING EARLY AUTUMN TEMPERATURES AND LOW HUMIDITIES CURRENTLY STRETCHES ACROSS NORTHERN TEXAS.
WILL KEEP 30 POPS FOR THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES AND 20 POPS ALONG/NORTHWEST OF A BONHAM TO BRECKENRIDGE LINE THROUGH 1AM. SCATTERED STRONG TO BRIEF SEVERE STORMS ARE OCCURRING WELL NW OF D/FW THIS EVENING IN RESPONSE TO HOT AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING INTO SRN OK AND NW TX. ANOTHER STORM OUTFLOW FROM ACTIVITY SOUTHWEST WAS CURRENTLY APPROACHING BRIDGEPORT AND MINERAL WELLS. CURRENT SURFACE OBS SHOW THAT THE COLD FRONT HAS SLOWED AS EXPECTED AND AT 3 PM EXTENDED FROM NEAR MIDLAND TO WICHITA FALLS TO FORT SMITH ARKANSAS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT BUT MOST ACTIVITY SHOULD DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET.
WE ARE BEGINNING TO FEEL THE EFFECTS OF A TROUGH ALOFT DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN US WITH A MORE WESTERLY FLOW. GUIDANCE SHOWING MID LEVEL TROUGHING DEEPENING OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND FLORIDA SUPPRESSING THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS FARTHER SOUTH WHICH WILL PRODUCE A SW FLOW. HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S AND LOWS IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S. WEAK RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT SOUTH ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLC WATERS WHICH WILL INDUCE A LIGHT S/SW FLOW BY MORNING.
UPSTREAM DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 50S SUPPORTS THE OUR LOW TEMP FORECAST OF LOW TO MID 50S. ALONG AND NORTH OF I-74 COULD SEE THICKER CLOUD COVER DUE TO THE PROGRESSION OF AN UPPER TROUGH INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AREA. COLD FRONT HAS JUST PASSED EAST OF CMI AND SHELBYVILLE AT MID AFTERNOON. ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN VERMILION COUNTY JUST AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. MUGGY DEWPOINTS AROUND 70F AHEAD OF COLD FRONT IN EASTERN IL DROP OFF INTO MORE COMFORTABLE 50S TO NEAR 60F BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. LOWERED TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS A BIT MORE TONIGHT WITH LOWS TONIGHT MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 50S.
A SEASONABLY STRONG STORM SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED UPPER-LEVEL CLOSED LOW LINGER OVER NORTHWEST ONTARIO THIS AFTERNOON. TROUGH OF WARM AIR ALOFT OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA CONTINUED TO ENHANCE PRECIPITATION LATE THIS AFTERNOON. EXCEPT ALONG THE NORTH SHORE NEAR TWO HARBORS WHERE ADIABATIC COMPRESSION LEAD TO WARMER TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 40S NORTHEAST. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S IN FAR NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AND THE LOW 50S OVER MY FAR EASTERN ZONES.
955 PM EDT SUN AUG 23 2015 A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN OVERNIGHT AS A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION WILL BE FOLLOWED BY DRY CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK. MONITORING THE COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AS IT TRUDGES ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO.
NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW WILL BECOME STRONGER AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS CANADA TONIGHT INTO MONDAY AND DIGS SOUTHWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SHEAR WILL BE LACKING AS THE MAIN ENERGY WILL BE WELL TO THE NORTH WITH THIS SYSTEM CLOSER TO THE LOW.
FOR TERMINAL FORECASTS COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING SLOWLY THROUGH THE MID STATE WITH WEAK NORTHERLY FLOW. DRIER AIR BEGINNING TO WORK DOWN INTO WESTERN KENTUCKY WHERE DEWPOINTS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE LOWER 60S.
VFR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUD DECK ASSOCIATED WITH COLDER AIR ALOFT BEHIND DEPARTING COLD FRONT SHOULD DROP SOUTHEAST A LITTLE TONIGHT. EXPECT WEST WINDS TO INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH CIRCULATION AROUND THE LOW JUST NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR. HIGH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ASSOCIATED WITH COLDER AIR ALOFT BEHIND DEPARTING COLD FRONT WILL LINGER INTO MID/LATE AFTERNOON.
1133 PM EDT SUN AUG 23 2015 HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER PENNSYLVANIA WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND THEN MOVES ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY. A RELATIVELY DEEP MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH WILL DOMINATE THE PATTERN OVER PENNSYLVANIA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. MINS WILL RANGE FROM MID TO UPPER 50S NORTH TO THE LOWER 60S SOUTHEAST. MOISTURE POOLS LONGEST OVER MY SOUTHEAST AND THAT IS WHERE POPS REMAIN THE HIGHEST MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S NORTHWEST TO THE MIDDLE 80S SOUTHEAST. THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO TAKE SHAPE CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE CORRESPONDING FRONT COULD STALL DUE TO LACK OF STRONG FLOW ALOFT. ALL MED RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE MID- LATE WEEK WX WILL BE DOMINATED BY LINGERING UPPER TROUGH OVR THE NORTHEAST CONUS.
659 PM CDT SUN AUG 23 2015 COLD FRONT HAS JUST PASSED EAST OF CMI AND SHELBYVILLE AT MID AFTERNOON. ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN VERMILION COUNTY JUST AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. MUGGY DEWPOINTS AROUND 70F AHEAD OF COLD FRONT IN EASTERN IL DROP OFF INTO MORE COMFORTABLE 50S TO NEAR 60F BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. LOWERED TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS A BIT MORE TONIGHT WITH LOWS TONIGHT MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 50S.
Short range models indicate a strong upper level trough of low pressure moving eastward into the Great Lakes tonight and Monday. Meanwhile, an upper level ridge across the Four Corners Region will build northward into the Northern Rockies through the period. This will draw slightly warmer air northward into central and southwest Kansas pushing highs well up into the 80s(F) Monday afternoon.
BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS ON THE BACK SIDE OF A DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING BEFORE DROPPING OFF SIGNIFICANTLY AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN OVER THE AREA. THE HIGH WILL THEN BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S ACROSS THE EAST TO THE UPPER 70S ACROSS THE WEST.
THE NEXT POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL BE AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. AFTER THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THE COOLEST AIRMASS TO REACH INTO GA AT THE END OF THE SUMMER WILL PRODUCE FAIR SKIES AND PLEASANT MIN TEMPS. THE POPS WERE ENHANCED TONIGHT AND MONDAY DUE THE COLD FRONT.
801 PM EDT SUN AUG 23 2015 HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER PENNSYLVANIA WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND THEN MOVES ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY. A RELATIVELY DEEP MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH WILL DOMINATE THE PATTERN OVER PENNSYLVANIA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. MINS WILL RANGE FROM MID TO UPPER 50S NORTH TO THE LOWER 60S SOUTHEAST. MOISTURE POOLS LONGEST OVER MY SOUTHEAST AND THAT IS WHERE POPS REMAIN THE HIGHEST MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S NORTHWEST TO THE MIDDLE 80S SOUTHEAST. THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO TAKE SHAPE CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE CORRESPONDING FRONT COULD STALL DUE TO LACK OF STRONG FLOW ALOFT. ALL MED RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE MID- LATE WEEK WX WILL BE DOMINATED BY LINGERING UPPER TROUGH OVR THE NORTHEAST CONUS.
1232 AM EDT MON AUG 24 2015 A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN OVERNIGHT AS A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION, DRY CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL CAN THEN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK. COLD FRONT INTO CENTRAL OHIO AT 04Z.
A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL BRING A WARMING TREND AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING ON THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.
RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOPED A BIT FURTHER WEST THAN EXPECTED AS VORT MAX ROTATES AROUND UPPER LOW OVER WRN ONTARIO. LOOKING AT BREEZY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING ONCE AGAIN BY MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS A LITTLE WARMER THAN TODAY. NOT SURE HOW FAR SOUTH THE MVFR CIGS WILL SINK AS THE LOW PULLS OUT OF THE REGION.
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING THROUGH THE MIDDLE LAYERS OF THE ATMOSPHERE IS PARKED OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NEAR THE FLORIDA KEYS TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
/ISSUED 943 PM CDT SUN AUG 23 2015/ COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER WITH DRIER AIR LAGGING CONSIDERABLY BEHIND THE WIND SHIFT AS DEW POINTS STILL IN UPPER 60S SOUTH OF I-40. COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER BY EARLY EVENING.
757 PM EDT SUN AUG 23 2015 A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN OVERNIGHT AS A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION WILL BE FOLLOWED BY DRY CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK. MONITORING THE COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AS IT TRUDGES ACROSS NORTHWESTERN OHIO.
943 PM CDT SUN AUG 23 2015 COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER WITH DRIER AIR LAGGING CONSIDERABLY BEHIND THE WIND SHIFT AS DEW POINTS STILL IN UPPER 60S SOUTH OF I-40. COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER BY EARLY EVENING.
1131 PM CDT SUN AUG 23 2015 COLD FRONT IS NOW OVER TAKING THE OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WITH WINDS INITIALLY BEHIND THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY GOING NW 10-15 KTS. WILL KEEP 30 POPS FOR THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES AND 20 POPS ALONG/NORTHWEST OF A BONHAM TO BRECKENRIDGE LINE THROUGH 1AM. CURRENT SURFACE OBS SHOW THAT THE COLD FRONT HAS SLOWED AS EXPECTED AND AT 3 PM EXTENDED FROM NEAR MIDLAND TO WICHITA FALLS TO FORT SMITH ARKANSAS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT BUT MOST ACTIVITY SHOULD DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET.
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THIS MOISTURE SHOULD LARGELY RIDE SOUTH OF THE UPPER RIDGE AND REMAIN OUT OF OUR FORECAST AREA. THE SECOND FEATURE WILL BE LATE IN THE PERIOD WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO TEXAS.
WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION. BUT DESPITE THE AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE JUST TO THE WEST WE SHOULD STAY DRY (POPS-WISE) DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. 41 OVERALL QUIET CONDITIONS OVER THE UPPER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS WITH LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF.
958 PM EDT SUN AUG 23 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST MONDAY MORNING.
BUT DID LOWER SEVERAL DEGREES WITH READINGS FALLING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 40S.
THEN STORMS WILL HAVE TO WAIT FOR A COLD FRONT WHICH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THE AIR MASS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL BE LESS HOT AND MUCH DRIER THAN CURRENT CONDITIONS.
TYPICAL SUMMER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEK AS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. THE MARINE LAYER WILL BE FAIRLY SHALLOW SO EXPECT THE LOW CLOUDS TO BURN OFF BY EARLY TO MID MONDAY MORNING. WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PUSHING INTO THE BC COAST AND A LOW PRESSURE CENTER POSITIONED APPROXIMATELY 700 MILES OFF OF THE CALIFORNIA COAST.
THUNDERSTORMS AND CLOUDS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT PUSHED EAST OF THE AREA THIS MORNING. MOST LOCATIONS SAW A BRIEF PERIOD OF SUNSHINE BEFORE MORE CLOUDS ARRIVED IN CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE UPPER CYCLONE IN ONTARIO. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MORE CHALLENGING SINCE THE LOW LEVEL MOIST LAYER THINS OUT FOR PART OF THE NIGHT.
Lower ceilings could form, but think these will be in the low VFR range. /issued 240 PM CDT SUN AUG 23 2015/ Current observations show the cold front is right about where it was expected to be at this time, right along the I-20 corridor to Pecos, then extending northwest along the Pecos River valley into southeast New Mexico. The remainder of the forecast appears to be a return of what we are very familiar with, an upper level high building over New Mexico and west Texas.
900 PM PDT SUN AUG 23 2015 BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHWEST WILL BRING WARMER WEATHER AND A SHALLOWER MARINE LAYER MONDAY.
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER BY EARLY EVENING.
HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ALL SUGGEST CONVECTION DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST SO WILL MAINTAIN THE HIGHER POST-MIDNIGHT POPS THERE. /ISSUED 244 PM CDT SUN AUG 23 2015/ COLD FRONT. OVERALL LITTLE CHANGE TO FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEK WITH MODELS HAVING TIMING AND STRENGTH ISSUES WITH PROGD S/WVS THAT RIDE ALONG DOWNSTREAM PORTION OF UPPER RIDGE. ONLY CONSISTENCY IS FOR STRONGER OF THE WAVES TO AFFECT THE REGION LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK SO THAT IS WHERE THE HIGHER POPS WILL BE CONFINED.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY DRY AIR IN THE LOW-LEVELS TOMORROW MORNING AND THUS NOT EXPECTING ANY NOCTURNAL STRATUS.
WILL MAINTAIN VFR TO MVFR CEILINGS AT ALL THREE TAF SITES AT LEAST UNTIL 10Z MONDAY IN THE TAF FORECAST PACKAGE DUE TO THE UNCERTAINITIES WITH THE LOW CLOUDS.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK. A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE GREAT BASIN THIS EVENING. WHICH LED TO SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON. ENOUGH MOISTURE PERSISTED UNDER THIS RIDGE TO ALLOW FOR DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. THOUGH AT LEAST SOME STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
FOR 00Z FORECAST COLD FRONT AT LATE AFTERNOON IN WESTERN TENNESSEE/KENTUCKY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTORMS JUST BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ALONG THE TENNESSEE RIVER.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL AS THE UPPER- LEVEL RIDGE SLOWLY STRENGTHENS THROUGH MONDAY.
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL TEND TO SUPPRESS THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WHILE BRINGING HOTTER TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA.
737 PM EDT SUN AUG 23 2015 HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER PENNSYLVANIA WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND THEN MOVES ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY. A RELATIVELY DEEP MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH WILL DOMINATE THE PATTERN OVER PENNSYLVANIA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. MINS WILL RANGE FROM MID TO UPPER 50S NORTH TO THE LOWER 60S SOUTHEAST. MOISTURE POOLS LONGEST OVER MY SOUTHEAST AND THAT IS WHERE POPS REMAIN THE HIGHEST MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S NORTHWEST TO THE MIDDLE 80S SOUTHEAST. THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO TAKE SHAPE CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE CORRESPONDING FRONT COULD STALL DUE TO LACK OF STRONG FLOW ALOFT. ALL MED RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE MID- LATE WEEK WX WILL BE DOMINATED BY LINGERING UPPER TROUGH OVR THE NORTHEAST CONUS.
AND DECENT SEA BREEZES IT APPEARS THAT THE HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE AND RATHER WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WON OUT TODAY HELPING TO LIMIT CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION. EARLY THIS WEEK A PATTERN SHIFT BACK TO A MORE WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL GET UNDERWAY AS A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN U. AND A WEAKENING SURFACE COLD FRONT SETTLES INTO THE DEEP SOUTH AND STALLS.
DEEP LOW PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE DAKOTAS.
DEW POINTS IN THE 40S AND HIGHER RAN FROM THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY TO THE GULF COAST. ATMOSPHERIC PROFILES CONTINUE TO SHOW AN EXTREMELY DRY CONDITIONS IN THE LOWEST 8000 FEET OF THE ATMOSPHERE. LIGHT WINDS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER.
MODELS HAVE OVERESTIMATED THE IMPACTS OF A DRY LAYER OF AIR IN THE LOW LVLS. TROUGH AXIS CLEARS THE CWA BY 03Z. AS SHORT WAVE RIDGING MOVES OVERHEAD.
UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS NOW OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SPINS OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS.
THE CAUSE STEMS FROM A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS RESULTING IN SOUTH SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS OVER MN/WI.
LLVL MOISTURE RETURN IS UNDERWAY WITH DEW POINTS INCREASING OVER THE LOWER/MID MS VLY REGION. MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE PROGRESSION OF WESTERN CONUS UPPER LOW AND ITS IMPACTS AS IT SLIDE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE WESTERN CONUS UPPER LOW WILL BE CENTERED ON TOP OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION.
846 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015 UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
815 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015 HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THURSDAY.
THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT STRONG UPPER LOW IS CIRCULATING OVER UTAH. COLD FRONT IS SLOWLY MOVING EASTWARD. GFS IS IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE OTHER MODELS TODAY WITH THE TRACK OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. CLOSED LOW WILL SHIFT SOUTH OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION TONIGHT. WARMER TEMPS IN SOUTHWEST SD SHOULD KEEP MOST PRECIP THERE RAIN. WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS ACROSS SOUTHERN CAMPBELL COUNTY. PRECIP WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARD ON THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD. AND AS PRECIP CONTINUES TO WRAP AROUND THE LOW. TO THE LOWER 60S IN SOUTH CENTRAL SD.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL BRING MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES THURSDAY. AND FREEZING CONDITIONS APPEAR LIKELY IN THE COLDEST VALLEY LOCATIONS. LOW PRESSURE ALOFT PRESENTLY CENTERED OVER EAST CENTRAL UTAH WILL BE QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION THRU THURSDAY. MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR THUR. WITH HIGH TEMPS TO AVERAGE NEARLY 10 DEGS F OR SO COOLER VERSUS TEMPS ACHIEVED THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE NOTED THAT THE 16/00Z NAM/GFS MOS GUIDANCE TEMPS INDICATE FREEZING TEMPS APPEAR TO BE INCREASINGLY LIKELY EARLY FRI MORNING FOR KDUG. THESE GUIDANCE TEMPS KEEP KSAD JUST ABOVE FREEZING THUR NIGHT. EXPECT FREEZING TEMPERATURES LATE THUR NIGHT/EARLY FRI MORNING IN THE COLDEST ERN VALLEY LOCATIONS.
THERE IS ALSO A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT OVER WESTERN GEORGIA WHICH MAY ALSO TRIGGER SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER EAST ALABAMA.
THERE COULD BE SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED EVENING SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO BUT SHORT WAVE'S GOT TO GET CLOSER AND WE NEED TO DESTABILIZE WHICH WE WILL SOUTH OF WARM FRONT LATER TONIGHT. S UPPER LOW IN PLACE ON THURSDAY WITH A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES EJECTING OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS BEFORE SOUTHWESTERN U. S UPPER LOW FINALLY PHASES WITH BUCKLING NORTHERN STREAM WITH A BROAD UPPER TROUGH RESULTING OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE U.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE WEST COAST WILL BRING DRY WEATHER AND A WARMING TREND TO THE INTERIOR THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE WEST COAST BROUGHT DRY WEATHER AND WARMER TEMPERATURES TO NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA TODAY. HOWEVER, WIDESPREAD FROST IS NOT EXPECTED GIVEN TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER.
801 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015 AVIATION HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL RESULT IN A SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MILD AIR HERE IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK IN FROM THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT RESULTING IN SOME SHOWERS AND EVEN A THUNDERSTORM INTO THURSDAY.
AN UPPER TROUGH HAS MOVED OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST AND IS NOW SPINNING OVER THE GREAT BASIN. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH MANY AREAS DROPPING TO OR BELOW FREEZING. THEREFORE FREEZE WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.