Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
439 AM MST Fri Jan 10 2020 The trough has become un-phased this morning with the stronger southern portion moving towards the Continental Divide near the southern U. The weaker northern portion will be swinging across our CWA through the morning hours pushing a weak secondary cold front through the area. Transitory short wave ridging moves through overnight ahead of which will be a prolonged period of troughiness and passing waves. with an increase in snow intensity and coverage ahead of and with the passing trough. So it will be like the rolling waves of the sea with peaks and troughs in the snowfall which is a nightmare to forecast and tough to message. Skiers should be happy but travel through the high country will be challenging at times.
The period begins with a strong upper level ridge centered over the northwest Bahamas, and an upper trough digging across the Desert Southwest. At the surface, high pressure was centered east of the Mid Atlantic states, and this ridge will slide eastward today to north northeast of Bermuda. An area of low pressure just north of Lake Superior will move northeastward, dragging a cold front across the Midwest and Southern Plains. The low temperatures will be near to above normal high temperatures for this time of year.
544 AM EST Fri Jan 10 2020 Rain chances return today and late Saturday with crossing low pressure. An upper-level trough is expected to dig into the western Texas and further amplify a ridge east of the Mississippi River later today. The upper-level trough will continue to dig into central Texas as ridging continues to strengthen tonight into Saturday.
An isolated shower or two cannot be ruled out in this pattern, especially over the interior and southwest Florida, but overall it will remain dry as the low level moisture will remain trapped under the subsidence inversion.
Strong southerly flow continues through the forecast period which could keep tys and tri vfr all the way to 12z Saturday, due to the resulting warming and drying of the lower atmosphere in these areas. Position of cha near the far southwest end of the Great Valley will allow some lower ceilings today, but they could remain vfr until tonight when the low levels really start moistening ahead of the strong storm system expected to arrive later Saturday afternoon and early evening.
Short Term Update - The high to our northeast will maintain windy conditions across the Keys this afternoon.
849 AM EST Fri Jan 10 2020 Gusty east to southeast flow will be in place today under high pressure.
This leads to sleet and freezing rain starting earlier and lasting longer before the transition to snow. 2 inches of sleet and about the same amount of freezing rain over the NW CWA (where the Winter Storm Warning is in effect) from late this evening into tonight. As the cold near surface layer continues to moves E through the area Saturday, sleet and freezing rain will progress with it.
Strong southerly winds will increase further tonight as the low level jet strengthens across the region. The trof will become negatively tilted as it moves from the Southern Plains to the Ohio Valley Saturday evening.
MUCH WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPS OVER THE COMING DAYS.
323 AM MST Fri Jan 10 2020 The midlevel trough axis is passing by right now, with western mountain snow finally shutting down, while light snow continues through midmorning for the Big Horn Mountains into Johnson and Natrona Counties. The next trough progresses across the northern US late tonight into Saturday. The next trough will also restart the western mountain snow machine, with moderate snow continuing through the day Saturday.
206 AM MST Fri Jan 10 2020 High pressure and upper trough will be over Eastern Montana today with mostly clear skies and cold temperatures. An upper ridge and warm front moves into the forecast area. The warm front will bring a chance of light snow late tonight and Saturday morning. A cold front moves through the area Saturday afternoon and evening with much colder air moving for the remainder of the weekend.
High pressure over far northwest North Dakota and northeastern Montana will slide southeast today.
359 AM MST Fri Jan 10 2020 The trough has become un-phased this morning with the stronger southern portion moving towards the Continental Divide near the southern U. The weaker northern portion will be swinging across our CWA through the morning hours pushing a weak secondary cold front through the area. Transitory short wave ridging moves through overnight ahead of which will be a prolonged period of troughiness and passing waves. with an increase in snow intensity and coverage ahead of and with the passing trough. So it will be like the rolling waves of the sea with peaks and troughs in the snowfall which is a nightmare to forecast and tough to message. Skiers should be happy but travel through the high country will be challenging at times.
Next shift will need to consider if temperatures are a bit cooler, or winds slightly stronger than currently forecast.
There are still some outliers so there's some uncertainty about the timing and a chance that there could be a warmer or colder day, but we'll generally have near normal temperatures with light orographic snow in the mountains most of the time while the plains may have a slight chance of light showers if we get a stronger wave, but will most likely be dry.
500mb upper trough moves through as advertised at 18Z that will force the surface front east into central Nebraska. 700mb winds begin to shift westerly as upper ridge moves in after 00Z. GFS 700mb winds begin to increase as ridge axis shifts to the east. Energy form our next low pressure system currently off the Washington State coast begins to move into the area Saturday.
This low will wander eastwards and it will bring the first round of rain and snow later tonight into Saturday morning. A moderately strong cold front is expected to move through the region around this time dropping snow levels from 4500 feet to 3500 feet.
Cooler temperatures and locally breezy conditions will be seen over the next several days as an active, but dry weather pattern set up over the region.
309 AM CST Fri Jan 10 2020 A sharp mid/upper level trof was near the AZ/NM line with 95-105kt 5h jet moving into the base of the trof. For the central/northern PB the advisory level winds are more likely after 00Z/Fri in wake of the strong secondary cold front when the strong isallobaric flow (8-9mb/3hr) sweeps across the area.
431 AM MST Fri Jan 10 2020 The midlevel trough axis is passing by right now, with western mountain snow finally shutting down, while light snow continues through midmorning for the Big Horn Mountains into Johnson and Natrona Counties. The next trough progresses across the northern US late tonight into Saturday. The next trough will also restart the western mountain snow machine, with moderate snow continuing through the day Saturday.
709 AM EST Fri Jan 10 2020 Rain chances return today and late Saturday with crossing low pressure. An upper-level trough is expected to dig into the western Texas and further amplify a ridge east of the Mississippi River later today. The upper-level trough will continue to dig into central Texas as ridging continues to strengthen tonight into Saturday.
The mid/upper trough axis will continue to deepen as it moves eastward across the Southern Plains today. Damaging winds will be the highest severe weather threat, as the low level jet will be in the 50-70 kt range. Still concerned with possible supercell development ahead of the front late this afternoon and evening, with QLCS development along the cold front Saturday morning, increasing the risk of tornados. Along with this, will highlight the increased gradient winds this afternoon, and this evening and overnight as the low level jet intensifies as mentioned above.
This afternoon-evening: Focus shifts to winter weather in central KS, where combo of freezing rain and snow is expected. As the cold air spills south, anticipate an expanding area of freezing rain, which could would reach KHUT-KEWK line roughly around 3 pm, and into the Wichita metro between 5-6 pm.
The strength and track of the upper trough does continue with uncertainty and this impacts precip amounts and location. Inclusion of the NAM low level thermal fields does maintain a notable period of freezing rain and sleet potential along and southeast of Interstate 44 which will limit any snow accumulations, however northwest of Interstate 44 the potential for more substantial snowfall remains and warrants the continuation of the winter storm watch.
This is occurring behind a cold front that moved through and ahead of a deep upper trough that will bring us more wintry impacts later today. Precipitation is still expected to begin mid morning, possibly as a brief mix of freezing rain and sleet before changing to snow. The upper trough will lift out of the area to the northeast on Saturday.
448 AM CST Fri Jan 10 2020 WV imagery shows mid to upper low just about to move into SW NM early this morning, with lift and moisture increasing ahead of it. The most significant severe threat will develop later this afternoon and evening across portions of east central and southeastern OK along and ahead of a strong cold front. Winter weather will begin to develop as early as this evening across portions of northwestern OK behind the cold front. Later tonight through mid day tomorrow, it appears there should be enough moisture within backside of trough to support an area of snow and sleet moving up from SW/W OK into central and then northern OK.
Friday through Friday night: The main forecast concern will come today as an upper level trough swings into the area. As the trough moves in Friday morning, lift will increase as isentropic upglide increases below a strong upper level jet. 850mb temperatures are initially above freezing along and south of a line from Red Oak to Beatrice.
341 AM CST Fri Jan 10 2020 An area of high pressure continues to build in from the northwest today. Total snowfall is still expected to be less than 3 inches, with the highest amounts focused over the southwest: Stanley, Sully, Hughes, Jones, and Lyman Counties. The break from the low wind chills will be short lived as temperatures fall to -10 to -20F east of the Missouri River overnight. Despite warm air advection Saturday, in advance of an elongated lee trough, highs will only be able to rise into the single digits, with teens along and west of the Missouri River.
A trough across the West will bring gusty winds in the mountains and High Desert on Saturday, though no precipitation is expected.
Early this evening, a strong cold front will begin to move through the area accompanied by a NW wind shift and potential BLDU. /issued 309 AM CST Fri Jan 10 2020/ A sharp mid/upper level trof was near the AZ/NM line with 95-105kt 5h jet moving into the base of the trof. For the central/northern PB the advisory level winds are more likely after 00Z/Fri in wake of the strong secondary cold front when the strong isallobaric flow (8-9mb/3hr) sweeps across the area.
An area of high pressure continues to build in from the northwest today. Total snowfall is still expected to be less than 3 inches, with the highest amounts focused over the southwest: Stanley, Sully, Hughes, Jones, and Lyman Counties. The break from the low wind chills will be short lived as temperatures fall to -10 to -20F east of the Missouri River overnight. Despite warm air advection Saturday, in advance of an elongated lee trough, highs will only be able to rise into the single digits, with teens along and west of the Missouri River.
746 AM EST Fri Jan 10 2020 Mid-high level cloudiness along with partial insolation expected Today, given SW flow aloft over the area between upper ridge over western Atlantic and developing storm system approaching the Southern Plains. Strong high pressure will be northeast of the region through Friday, then move toward the east.
Strong southerly flow continues through the forecast period which could keep tys and tri vfr all the way to 12z Saturday, due to the resulting warming and drying of the lower atmosphere in these areas. Position of cha near the far southwest end of the Great Valley will allow some lower ceilings today, but they could remain vfr until tonight when the low levels really start moistening ahead of the strong storm system expected to arrive later Saturday afternoon and early evening. Chattanooga Airport, TN 65 58 70 45 63 / 30 60 100 80 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 66 56 73 48 62 / 10 10 100 80 10 Oak Ridge, TN 65 55 72 46 61 / 10 20 100 80 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 65 52 70 48 61 / 0 0 50 90 10 TN.
140 PM MST Fri Jan 10 2020 Wind will be the greatest concern today through Saturday morning, as lee troffing develops once again. Mainly expect to see accumulating snow in the high country, as moist Pacific flow is lifted up the mountain. Low temps tonight will be significantly warmer than last night, thanks to windy conditions in the west. Temps on Saturday will also be on the warmer side due to continued downslope westerly flow.
Mostly overcast skies will persist through the next 24 hours ahead of a stregthening area of low pressure to the west. Diegan Chattanooga Airport, TN 58 70 45 63 45 / 60 100 80 10 30 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 56 73 48 62 44 / 10 100 80 10 20 Oak Ridge, TN 55 72 46 61 43 / 20 100 80 0 20 Tri Cities Airport, TN 52 70 48 61 42 / 0 50 90 10 20 TN.
Primary low level jet of around 70 knots remains relegated to the Lower Ohio Valley, a secondary, slightly more veered jetlet to 50 knots tracked from west central Indiana overnight across far southern CWA and will reach into north central Ohio by mid/late morning. As upper level jet rounds trough and emerges across Lake Superior/southern Ontario/central Quebec, 3H winds ramp to in excess of 200 kts providing extreme upper level divergence. Latest trend of a bit faster ejection of weekend system as press of first in series of upstream systems press through parent broad CONUS trough is a bit concerning. Next concern is potential for freezing rain later Saturday/Saturday night across northwest CWA/Michigan counties. While some areas could eventually need an advisory, longevity of freezing rain and better profiles situated north of CWA, suggest holding off on any winter issuances at this time.
Cooler temperatures and locally breezy conditions will be seen over the next several days as an active, but dry weather pattern set up over the region. It's sunny and dry across the region this morning with some locally breezy winds making cool morning temperatures feel a little bit cooler.
1253 PM EST Fri Jan 10 2020 High pressure is ridging back across the area from the NE with the upper ridge centered just to the east of the state.
Went ahead and raised max temps as current values are already overshooting the 06Z slightly warmer numerics.
1208 PM EST Fri Jan 10 2020 High pressure located several hundred miles southeast of Cape Cod will create a southerly flow of milder air for today and Saturday. Temps still below freezing as the rain arrives in Tioga/Nrn Lycoming counties. As a result, a large upper ridge and anomalous warmth for central PA through Saturday night, will gradually be replaced by more seasonable temperatures with time.
1038 AM MST Fri Jan 10 2020 The trough has become un-phased this morning with the stronger southern portion moving towards the Continental Divide near the southern U. The weaker northern portion will be swinging across our CWA through the morning hours pushing a weak secondary cold front through the area. Transitory short wave ridging moves through overnight ahead of which will be a prolonged period of troughiness and passing waves. with an increase in snow intensity and coverage ahead of and with the passing trough. So it will be like the rolling waves of the sea with peaks and troughs in the snowfall which is a nightmare to forecast and tough to message. Skiers should be happy but travel through the high country will be challenging at times.
The light winds will present because of the persistent high pressure and an inversion aloft. With winds shifting to the south temperatures should rebound to highs near zero The high pressure will move out of the Northern Plains later in the day on Saturday as an upper trough moves into the region by Saturday night.
1036 AM EST Fri Jan 10 2020 High pressure located several hundred miles southeast of Cape Cod will create a southerly flow of milder air for today and Saturday. Temps still below freezing as the rain arrives in Tioga/Nrn Lycoming counties. Temperatures Saturday/Sat night will peak in the 50s, and even the low 60s across portions of Southern PA, as GEFS mean 850 temps climb to +9-12C or +2-3 sigma, thanks to widespread clouds a gusty southerly breeze of 15-25 mph, ocnly reaching over 30 mph on the ridge tops, and a surge of high PWAT air of +4-5 sigma (or about 1.
High pressure will build from the northeast to the east through Tonight.
348 PM EST Fri Jan 10 2020 Tonight, a cold front oriented from Chicago southwest to northern Texas is being pushed east by an upper trough. Tomorrow, as the upper trough slowly moves northeast pushing the cold front east, rain continues. Temperatures will continue to warm to near 70 for many in southern Indiana and into the low 70s for those in central Kentucky as strong surface flow continues from the south.
Showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening will trnasition to a wintry mix and eventually snow Saturday morning as colder air moves into the area behind a cold front. Gusty north winds will also prevail behind the cold front.
Upper air analysis this morning showed a deep trough from the Four Corners to the Baja Peninsula. At the surface, a cold front was stretched over West Texas from the Panhandle to the Big Bend. Temperatures across the area ranged from the lower 70s to the lower 80s and dewpoints were generally in the 60s. Behind the front winds will become westerly to northwesterly bringing drier, cooler air. Low temperatures Saturday will be 15 to 25 degrees cooler than Friday morning. High temperatures will be near 20 degrees cooler than Friday.
150 PM MST Fri Jan 10 2020 20z surface analysis had high pressure over eastern ND pushing drier air into the CWA.
Strong high pressure will be northeast of the region through Friday, then move toward the east.
1031 AM MST Fri Jan 10 2020 The midlevel trough axis is passing by right now, with western mountain snow finally shutting down, while light snow continues through midmorning for the Big Horn Mountains into Johnson and Natrona Counties. The next trough progresses across the northern US late tonight into Saturday. The next trough will also restart the western mountain snow machine, with moderate snow continuing through the day Saturday.
High pressure will build across the region today. with just a few isolated snow showers impacting mainly the higher terrain this morning. These snow showers will quickly end as upper level ridging builds into the area.
Increasing westerly winds, shifting to the NW with the trough passage, will continue through mid-afternoon, but diminishing before sunset.
These gusts will only get stronger over the next 24 to 36 hours as the cold front approaches.
232 PM CST Fri Jan 10 2020 A lax pressure gradient and cloudy skies have kept winds a little low so far, though clearing skies and an approaching upper trough should help mix some windier conditions into the western half of the CWA over the next several hours. Winds will pick up again from the north behind a cold front arriving overnight but will stay just shy of warranting a wind advisory. Temperatures behind the front will drop temperatures below freezing and a deep upper trough moving into Texas will create enough instability to bring isolated to light showers to southeastern New Mexico and the Permian Basin.
Wintry Precipitation and Another Cold Front. The upper-level storm system and its associated cold front, which we've been highlighting recently, is poised to bring changes to West Central Texas weather tonight and Saturday. Then, as the upper system moves east tonight, the cold front will move into West Central Texas and bring gusty winds from the north, low clouds, and much cooler air. Nevertheless, watch for slick spots on bridges and overpasses. For tomorrow, surface winds from the north will continue to bring cooler air in West Central Texas; thus, temperatures will be much closer to usual early January temperatures.
Broad upper ridge dominates with warm air advection commencing across the far west this evening/tonight and continuing to spread east during the day Saturday. A warm front and associated isentropic upglide/lift will approach western North Dakota by Saturday afternoon. Highs Saturday will range from zero in the southern James River Valley, to the lower 20s west.
Arctic high pressure system filters in tonight and tomorrow, leading to below normal temperatures across the region.
High pressure ridging north of Florida is keeping breezy southeasterly winds in place over the eastern Gulf of Mexico, with cautionary level winds expected to continue over the offshore zones through Saturday afternoon.
The temperatures still remain cold, but will be a bit warmer than tonight.
406 PM MST Fri Jan 10 2020 20z surface analysis had high pressure over eastern ND pushing drier air into the CWA.
Cold mornings this weekend with freezing temperatures both mornings.
316 PM CST Fri Jan 10 2020 The upper trough that has been digging our way across the Desert Southwest is now on our doorstep, and it is closing off. Models indicate a closed low at H7 traveling across roughly the northern Permian Basin tonight. In conjunction, a strong cold front will be driving southward.
This low will continue to move east tonight getting close to the Mississippi River by Saturday morning. The associated cold front will move across Arkansas tonight. The cold front will move through the region on Saturday with more thunderstorms expected. As the cold front moves out of the region Saturday night, only a few showers are possible across northeast sections of the Mid-South during the evening hours. High pressure will start to build into the region by late Saturday night bringing dry weather and colder air.
Very cold temperatures are forecast in basins and valleys across the high country tonight.
/issued 232 PM CST Fri Jan 10 2020/ A lax pressure gradient and cloudy skies have kept winds a little low so far, though clearing skies and an approaching upper trough should help mix some windier conditions into the western half of the CWA over the next several hours. Winds will pick up again from the north behind a cold front arriving overnight but will stay just shy of warranting a wind advisory. Temperatures behind the front will drop temperatures below freezing and a deep upper trough moving into Texas will create enough instability to bring isolated to light showers to southeastern New Mexico and the Permian Basin.
558 PM CST Fri Jan 10 2020 A strong cold front, located near along I-44 in Oklahoma, will continue to push rather quickly south tonight. A mid and upper level trough will lift across West Texas this evening and then across Oklahoma and northern Texas late overnight/Saturday morning. Before the precipitation transitions to snow this evening/overnight, there will be the potential for mainly light freezing rain and sleet.
306 PM MST Fri Jan 10 2020 GOES-16 upper level water vapor imagery shows another upper level trough centered off the northwestern coast of the CONUS.
Cooler temperatures and locally breezy conditions will be seen over the next several days as an active, but dry weather pattern set up over the region. A cold front forecast to pass through the area late Saturday morning through the evening will bring enhanced northerly breezes primarily to areas across south central Nevada and gusty west winds to the Western Mojave Desert.
Strong and gusty south to southeast winds will persist overnight until passage of an active cold front. This afternoon a cold front is stretched from the Great Lakes to the Texas Panhandle. An area of low pressure is over West OK and Northeast TX and a dryline extends to the south of the low.