Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
High pressure has taken over resulting in winds becoming light and variable through the rest of tonight. Ridging aloft begins to take hold over the region through the period as it retrogrades westward over the southeast CONUS. With this, the entire southeast CONUS pretty much remains engulfed by high pressure at all levels leaving us with some hot and dry conditions. As far as temps go, lows tonight will be in the low to mid 60s inland, with mid 60s to around 70 degrees along the coast. Lows on Saturday night will be fairly similar to tonight potentially even a few degrees cooler given the calmer winds. On Sunday, temps are expected to be a bit warmer with mostly upper 80s to low 90s expected across the region, except right along the coast where low 80s are expected.
125 AM CDT Sat May 22 2021 Today the CWA remains with an upper level low to its west and a high pressure system to its east. At the sfc, there is an inverted trough over eastern WY that will move into the area with an accompanied frontal boundary and be the initiator for storms this evening. Into the day Sunday, the closed upper level low will move over the Rockies and lift northeastward to the WY/Nebraska border. By this time, it is expected to have developed an associated sfc cold front due to some lee FGEN IVO the Rockies.
The upper level pattern over the CONUS remains fairly blocky with a deep upper level low over the western states and an upper level ridge over the east. An upper level trough rotating through the southern quadrant of the upper low will move northward into Colorado later this afternoon and evening. All the models show thunderstorms developing off of the higher terrain this afternoon with some of this convection moving into western Kansas this evening. A compact low pressure trough rotating around the upper low will lift northward through Colorado tonight which could help sustain some showers and thunderstorms over western sections of the forecast area into the overnight hours but the severe threat should be fairly minimal.
High pressure will again be in control of the weather on Saturday, making for a nice and slightly warmer day. Therefore, think the warmer temperatures in the 85 to 90 degree range still looks good.
216 AM EDT Sat May 22 2021 Above average temperatures will continue through the weekend, though slightly cooler than those of the days prior. Temperatures will drop into the low to mid 60s. The ridge that has been overhead over the past several days will be compressed on its eastern half as an upper level trough moves SE across Central and Northern Ontario and Quebec on Sunday. This will result in a northwest flow across the area along with a passing cold front. This will result in the possibility of more robust convection as the cold front moves in or along lake breeze boundaries (marginal risk for severe convection per SPC). Once the front moves through Sunday night, it should be relatively quiet and noticeably cooler when compared to the recent summer-like nights.
/TW/ A stout ridge at both the surface and aloft will remain centered over the Deep South today and will keep dry and warm weather in place. Efficient radiational cooling is expected overnight with calm winds and dry air allowing overnight lows to drop into the low to mid 60s. /TW/ Strong ridging remains in place through the remainder of the forecast, with warm temperatures and mostly dry conditions expected. Mid week the pattern aloft starts to shift as a wave at h5 pushes into the Great Lakes as another moves on shore in the Pac NW and the subtropical ridge weakens to accommodate a more zonal pattern. Higher chances of precip are harder to find until the end of the week when the llvl RH has rebounded with dwpts well into the 60s and the mid/upper level ridging begins to break down.
Dry and unseasonably warm conditions will persist through the weekend and early in the new week as the core of a high pressure ridge dominates from the Mississippi and Ohio Valleys into the Deep South.
The upper level closed low that has been hanging around just to our southeast over the past several days will shift a bit to the northeast today, then finally exit to towards the northern Rockies Sunday. As the trough moves away, smaller scale ridging is expected to build in over the forecast area Sunday, temperatures should warm further, and shower activity should all but completely come to an end. However, along the coast and into the Umpqua Basin, some light rain is possible Sunday morning into the early afternoon as a weak warm front makes its way onshore.
A mid level ridge/high located off to our east and a trough off to our west continue to put us in the zone/plume of tropical air being pumped into the area. The ridge to the east has expanded a little which has shifted the best available moisture in our area from right along the OK/AR border to squarely into E OK this morning. /Issued 252 AM CDT Sat May 22 2021/ Showers continue to expand in coverage, moving northward across eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas early this morning on the western edge of an expanding ridge to the east.
Satellite imagery this morning is showing a low pressure circulation over the Great Basin, sending moisture northward to the Northern Rockies. Precipitation continues this morning over the Continental Divide, southwest Montana, and central Idaho as the low moves northeast. Some degree of mid-level drying will create the potential for freezing drizzle across southwest Montana this morning, primarily along I-90 and I-15 around Butte. As the low pressure system continues northward and eastward, widespread showers will continue in central Idaho including Lemhi, Idaho, and Clearwater Counties with a slight chance for an isolated thunderstorm this afternoon. By Sunday afternoon, the low pressure system sets up east of the Continental Divide, over central Montana. Flow turns easterly, then northerly as the low moves east.
519 AM MDT Sat May 22 2021 Today, a vorticity max rotates through the base of the trough and begins to lift north-northeastward toward the Four Corners. This will allow strong gusts to reach the surface therefore went with the higher end of guidance. Tomorrow, the main low pressure begins to migrate northeastward and transitions into an open wave in the process. Critical fire weather conditions will spread across a good portion of the lower elevations. The one uncertainty is how strong the winds will get, because as of now they are right at critical and that is the higher end of guidance. Northwest portions of the forecast area may have isolated afternoon showers as some moisture wraps around the low and clips that region. It will be 5-10 degrees cooler tomorrow than today thanks to the passing low.
Today through Sunday afternoon The upper Low will be centered in Nevada one more day today, bringing showers to northern and central Nevada. The Low begins to eject to the northeast tonight, and a band of showers on the backside of the low will bring precipitation to western Nevada while eastern portions of Nevada could get a short respite. With the cold center of the Low moving away, snow levels will not drop as low tonight, around 6000' to 7000', which will mean most valleys will see rain. As the Low's center moves into Montana on Sunday, the precipitation band on the backside of the Low will move northeast and much of the CWA will see one last batch of showers.
Farther west, highs will top out in the lower 80s, where afternoon sunshine will be more prevalent.
/Issued 337 AM EDT Sat May 22 2021/ High pressure and dry conditions will persist for the short term portion of the forecast.
331 AM MDT Sat May 22 2021 Today, a vorticity max rotates through the base of the trough and begins to lift north-northeastward toward the Four Corners. This will allow strong gusts to reach the surface therefore went with the higher end of guidance. Tomorrow, the main low pressure begins to migrate northeastward and transitions into an open wave in the process. Critical fire weather conditions will spread across a good portion of the lower elevations. The one uncertainty is how strong the winds will get, because as of now they are right at critical and that is the higher end of guidance. Northwest portions of the forecast area may have isolated afternoon showers as some moisture wraps around the low and clips that region. It will be 5-10 degrees cooler tomorrow than today thanks to the passing low.
A low pressure system will continue to bring strong southwest winds today with a fire weather threat continuing in some areas. Unseasonably strong low pressure remains positioned over Nevada this morning and will continue to bring one more day of strong wind to northern Arizona before exiting. The base of the trough is forecast to swing through Arizona during the daytime today ensuring tightened pressure gradients and strong, gusty southwest winds. Eastern Arizona will also see areas of critical fire weather develop in the lower elevations north of the rim today and Red Flag Warnings remain in effect. The trough finally pushes north and east of Arizona on Sunday giving way to much lighter winds and warming temperatures. Sunday morning lows will be quite cold with a hard freeze forecast across much of the high country.
The unusually deep trough for late May will continue to impact our forecast area today with a strong pressure gradient producing windy conditions. A much quieter weather pattern starting Sunday as the trough lifts out to the northeast leaving a dry west to southwest flow aloft as the storm track stays well to our north.
The stout upper level ridge will remain in place through the rest of the weekend, with mostly clear skies and dry weather continuing. We start the period Sunday night fairly uneventful as the area remains under the influence of upper level ridging. The blocking pattern begins to break down moving further into the week, when things become less amplified and the ridge broadens out.
This redevelopment is likely to be aided by a subtle impulse traversing the western periphery of a large upper ridge, the latter of which is centered roughly near the Tennessee Valley and spans a large portion of the eastern U. In any case, cooler and showery conditions are once again expected across central and northeast Missouri for the first half of the day, while warm and dry conditions persist farther west (including the St. Like yesterday, afternoon maximum temperatures will likely only reach the low to mid 70s in the areas where where clouds and rain persist, but will climb well into the 80s elsewhere. By early afternoon, shower activity will begin to shift toward the northeast and dissipate as the center of the upper ridge gradually drifts westward.
Otherwise, the forecast remains on track, with strong high pressure producing one more day of breezy onshore winds. Temperatures this afternoon reaching the low to mid- 80s along the coast and mid to upper 80s inland, with the highest temperatures west of Orlando. Breezy to fairly strong onshore flow again today, as high pressure remains over the area.
633 AM CDT Sat May 22 2021 For the 22/12Z TAF update, high pressure to our east will continue to gradually shift westward into our airspace, shoving more Gulf moisture back to the west through the period. /Today through Sunday/ Ridging over the eastern CONUS will continue to shift westward, shoving more Gulf moisture further into our East Texas zones by the end of the weekend. Sunday afternoon highs will return to a similar range of upper 70s to upper 80s, however, more locations will skew on the higher end of that range compared to the previous afternoon as high pressure continues to shift into the area.
443 AM PDT Sat May 22 2021 An area of low pressure will impact the region through the weekend. Overnight lows will be few degrees cooler. For Sunday, a brief ridge is expected to build into the region leading to generally quiet pattern for the region.
652 AM EDT Sat May 22 2021 A large area of high pressure over Virginia will drift into the Tennessee Valley for Sunday.
An upper level ridge will build over the region today, and will bring a lull in the precipitation. The dry conditions should persist through most of the evening, but a strong cold front will reach Vilas County by around midnight, then push through north central and far northeast WI overnight. The cold front will surge southwest across the rest of the forecast area on Sunday, with temperatures quickly falling into 50s in the wake of the frontal passage.
Still expecting the warming trend in temps today with max afternoon values reaching upper 80s to low 90s across most areas under the strong omega-blocked ridge. /Issued 337 AM EDT Sat May 22 2021/ High pressure and dry conditions will persist for the short term portion of the forecast.
222 AM PDT Sat May 22 2021 Cold low pressure will bring showers and a low chance for afternoon and evening thunderstorms to the region through Saturday with much diminished chances on Sunday. Accumulating snow is likely in the high Sierra with mainly rain or snow pellets for lower elevations.
A large low pressure system will circulate over our region today with unseasonably cool temperatures, scattered showers, and isolated thunderstorms.
/Issued 252 AM CDT Sat May 22 2021/ Showers continue to expand in coverage, moving northward across eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas early this morning on the western edge of an expanding ridge to the east.
As the upper ridge/anticyclone continues retrograding westward this morning/afternoon, additional moisture will stream into the region from the north. An upper ridge across the Tennessee valley will continue to produce VFR conditions throughout the forecast period. Surface ridging will keep winds light and less than 10kts. Chattanooga Airport, TN 89 64 91 65 94 / 0 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 87 63 89 64 90 / 0 0 0 0 10 Oak Ridge, TN 88 62 89 63 90 / 10 0 0 0 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 86 58 86 60 87 / 10 0 0 0 10.
605 AM CDT Sat May 22 2021 (Today and tonight) Scattered showers will gradually increase tonight into the morning as the deep moisture plume shifts westward and an upper level disturbance rounds the ridge. With abundant cloud cover, diurnal range will be somewhat limited today as highs are limited to the mid 70s to low 80s (somewhat warmer in northwest Oklahoma where some clearing may occur).
Prevailing MVFR everywhere, but KPEQ where the low ceilings are still to the east of the river. /issued 328 AM CDT Sat May 22 2021/ A broad and deep upper level low will remain over the northwestern U. This low will continue brisk southeasterly winds that will advect moisture and maintain instability over West Texas and southeastern New Mexico.
720 AM EDT Sat May 22 2021 Above average temperatures will continue through the weekend, though slightly cooler than those of the days prior. Temperatures will drop into the low to mid 60s. A cold front will already be bearing down on our area by Sunday. This cold front will be driven southeastward from Ontario and Quebec by a fairly potent mid-level vort max and associated 120 kt upper level jet, however the axis of the upper level forcing will be from southern Quebec into northern New England. Once the front moves through by late Sunday afternoon, it should be relatively quiet and noticeably cooler when compared to the recent summer-like nights.
Early morning showers have since shifted to the west of the Lower Keys, and the trend on KBYX radar has been a decrease in coverage. From synopsis, a sprawling high pressure system near the Outer Banks will maintain fresh to strong easterly breezes across the coastal waters of the Florida Keys through Sunday.
Scattered showers will continue today into tonight mainly over the Cascades as an upper level low pressure pulls away to the east. A weak warm front approaches the coast this evening, the moves inland Sunday bringing chances for light rain.
922 AM CDT Sat May 22 2021 A weak upper level low/tropical disturbance is currently located near New Braunfels. Farther west, highs will top out in the lower 80s, where afternoon sunshine will be more prevalent.
The upper level low that has brought showers and a few thunderstorms to mainly the higher elevations continues to sit over the region. The upper level low will be pushing northeast into the northern Rockies Sunday with short wave riding building into NorCal.
Look for increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms today along a stalled cold front. Additional thunderstorm chances remain in the forecast for Sunday as an upper low approaches the region. High temperatures for Sunday range from the low 60s to the upper 70s.
A cold front to the northwest will approach western MN this afternoon. Thermal ridging and compressional warming immediately in advance of it should bring highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s there. Farther east, cooler air aloft and advection from a pocket of even cooler air over the mid Mississippi Valley will keep the highs near 80 across WI. The cold front will stall over western MN tonight. Meanwhile, strong high pressure north of Lake Superior will advect much cooler air southwest across the Great Lakes late tonight and Sunday. A backdoor cold front will sag southwest at least to the I-94 corridor and result in an impressive temperature gradient by afternoon. That front will also stall and retreat back to the north beginning Sunday night as the high pressure continues southeast.
Temperatures will become warmer this week to more seasonable highs. An upper low over the Great Basin and Intermountain West will move north through Montana on Sunday and bring another opportunity for wetting rains and thunderstorms, some severe to the east with large hail and damaging winds possible. Some agreement is coming together for the low to transit the western portion of the state, before proceeding northward into Canada.
Dry weather with warmer interior daytime temperatures are expected today and Sunday. Onshore breezes will keep coastal areas much cooler.
NW Gulf coast region remains between a deep layer ridge centered over the Ohio River Valley and a trof axis stretching across E TX into the WRN Gulf, with a deep SE fetch of tropical MSTR continuing to funnel into the region. Weak area of low pressure that was being monitored for tropical development pushed inland overnight along the middle TX coast just NE of CRP. Beyond today, the deep later ridge is progged to continue slowly retrograding to the SW, exerting a greater influence across the area and bringing in some drier air while nudging the deep MSTR plume farther to the west. Lows the next couple of nights will be in the lower/mid 60s north of the I-10 corridor, upper 60s to around 70 along it and south to the coast.
Light winds and subsidence associated with deep layered high pressure will continue our warming trend. Deep layered ridge of high pressure will be west of the area tonight, so not expecting ideal radiational cooling. Lows will be in the low 60s. Anomalously strong upper level ridge (1-2 standard deviations above normal) extending from the Gulf of Mexico north through the Mississippi Valley appears to move back to the east during the period. Model soundings indicate mid level capping and subsidence expected with region under influence of ridge. There will be a short wave trough rotating around ridge and through the area from the north early Sunday with mainly high level clouds. Temperatures should continue to rise into the low to mid 90s and mild at night with min temps in the mid to upper 60s.
632 AM CDT Sat May 22 2021 An amplified upper pattern will remain in place across the CONUS this weekend, with upper ridging over the Southeast, and an upper low centered over the Great Basin. Short-range models and the HREF would indicate southeast KS having the higher probabilities today, before a diminishing trend early this evening.
expect cloud cover the linger through the day as the main upper level low starts to eject out of the desert southwest and into the northern Rockies. This track of the low should be more favorable for a few storms pushing a bit further east Sunday afternoon and evening.
A broad 500 hPa ridge remains entrenched over eastern CONUS. This barotropically stacked ridge emanates down to the surface, allowing for a broad easterly fetch of winds to continue over the region.
1053 AM CDT Sat May 22 2021 A large, broad area of high pressure is anchored just east of the region this morning, centered over the southern Appalachians.
These combined actions suppresses a long wave ridge lined up above the Mississippi Valley and cause the ridge to retreat to the eastern Atlantic. Closer to the surface, high pressure will shift to the southeastern CONUS, opening the door for the return of a little greater moisture to flow back into the region with time.
This frontal boundary will separate warm and humid air to the south, and cooler air to the north. Today and tonight - Afternoon cloud cover exceeded expectation, and for that reason our afternoon highs were a couple of degrees cooler than forecast. A cold front will approach the region, but the low level convergence along the front is fairly week so not anticipating widespread showers and thunderstorms. Areas to the south will be warm and humid with highs in the lower to mid 80s, while areas to the north will struggle to reach the 60s. This type of temperature gradient usually raises concern for storms, but the wind field is very light, on the order of 5 to 15 knots in the lower levels, so that should limit the severe weather potential.
There is a slight chance of showers again across this area Sunday afternoon, although it appears that the better threat for rain will be north and west of the forecast area as the upper level ridge shifts slightly westward. High temperatures will also be slightly warmer on Sunday with less cloud cover and precipitation. Highs on Sunday should be 5 to 10 degrees above normal with the warmest temperatures across east central and southeast MO and southwest IL on the northwestern periphery of the upper level ridge.
248 PM EDT Sat May 22 2021 Strong omega-block ridge will remain as dominating feature thru the fcst period. Main focus is of course on the abnormally warm temps as we should moderate even higher for Sunday afternoon as most of the area looks to reach the low 90s.
A cold front has pushed south and is no over west central MN up o near Bemidji. Effective shear is around 30-35kt as well immediately along the frontal zone, but in absence of stronger forcing activity may struggle to organize under mid level ridging. There is a signal a warm front to lift northward and additional clearing may reinforcing daytime heating within RRV may support pockets of instability could still support a a few showers or weaker thunderstorms as this front lifts northward. Main mid level trough axis should be west, but there is enough forcing to support at least showers and storms within the cluster holding together as it moves east overnight Sunday.
202 PM EDT Sat May 22 2021 A strong ridge of high pressure continues the very warm, mostly clear, and generally dry conditions.
As the upper ridge/anticyclone continues retrograding westward this morning/afternoon, additional moisture will stream into the region from the north. CDG Chattanooga Airport, TN 65 92 65 94 67 / 0 10 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 63 89 64 90 66 / 0 0 0 10 0 Oak Ridge, TN 62 89 63 90 65 / 0 0 0 10 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 59 86 60 87 63 / 0 10 0 10 10.
1152 AM MDT Sat May 22 2021 Today, a vorticity max rotates through the base of the trough and begins to lift north-northeastward toward the Four Corners. This will allow strong gusts to reach the surface therefore went with the higher end of guidance. Tomorrow, the main low pressure begins to migrate northeastward and transitions into an open wave in the process. Critical fire weather conditions will spread across a good portion of the lower elevations. The one uncertainty is how strong the winds will get, because as of now they are right at critical and that is the higher end of guidance. Northwest portions of the forecast area may have isolated afternoon showers as some moisture wraps around the low and clips that region. It will be 5-10 degrees cooler tomorrow than today thanks to the passing low.