Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
/issued 917 PM CST Fri Dec 11 2020/ Updated forecast to remove expired headlines for the high wind warning and advisory. /issued 132 PM CST Fri Dec 11 2020/ Upper trough swinging through today as the next low comes ashore WA coast. This low will open up to a trough as it dives down across WY with the energy rotating through the base.
354 AM EST Sat Dec 12 2020 Rain chances increase today as a low pressure system advances through the Upper Midwest and into the western Great Lakes.
117 AM EST Sat Dec 12 2020 High pressure will prevail through late Saturday.
The latest runs of the hi-res meso-scale models indicate this band of heavier snow will move to the east/northeast as the area of low pressure near St.
1248 AM EST Sat Dec 12 2020 A low pressure system will bring widespread rain to the area tonight and tomorrow.
1257 AM EST Sat Dec 12 2020 Rain chances increase today as a low pressure system advances through the Upper Midwest and into the western Great Lakes.
917 PM CST Fri Dec 11 2020 Updated forecast to remove expired headlines for the high wind warning and advisory. /issued 132 PM CST Fri Dec 11 2020/ Upper trough swinging through today as the next low comes ashore WA coast. This low will open up to a trough as it dives down across WY with the energy rotating through the base.
A large break in the high/mid level clouds has allowed temperatures to drop lower than expected. We will see a few hours of VFR conditions before CIGS begin to lower as moistening occurs ahead of the cold front. Diegan Chattanooga Airport, TN 47 61 45 60 42 / 30 70 20 0 90 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 46 60 45 58 40 / 10 60 20 0 90 Oak Ridge, TN 42 59 42 57 39 / 10 60 10 0 90 Tri Cities Airport, TN 39 60 44 56 38 / 10 40 30 0 90.
1058 PM CST Fri Dec 11 2020 Abundant high clouds cover the region today as a broad longwave trough sits over the central CONUS. Light north winds advect in a more seasonal air mass, with highs in the low to mid 30s. Despite being much cooler than the first half of the week, these temperatures remain about 5 degrees above seasonal averages.
Most of the regional/global models having difficulty resolving the extent of the stratus, with a better reflection seen in some of the high-res solutions, and leaned heavily on persistence, along with a blend of HREF/HRRR, the latter of which best supports the idea of persistence through the day and much of tonight. Also some hints of fog accompanying the low stratus across our north central areas, leaking southward from northeast South Dakota. This should allow for a cooler night, with lows tonight mainly upper teens-lower 20s.
Models take the low southeast into Nevada early Saturday morning. Upper ridge will pass quickly through our CWA from west to east Saturday bringing mostly sunny skies to our CWA. The inversion has cleared so no air stagnation problems are expected under the ridge.
343 AM CST Sat Dec 12 2020 A long wave trough of low pressure aloft was the main H5 feature across the CONUS tonight. This trough extended from southern Canada into south Texas. East of the long wave trough, low amplitude ridging was present from the Mid-Atlantic into New England. However, cloudy skies remained and patchy fog had developed across portions of the forecast area, and 3 AM CT temperatures were in the lower to middle 20s. This should burn off by late morning, however, mostly cloudy skies will remain in place today and highs will struggle to get out of the lower to mid 30s. On Sunday, a weak cold front will push through portions of the area in the morning.
(Today and tonight) Surface cold front is currently located along a San Angelo to Brady line early this morning. South winds will quickly return this evening, ahead of an approaching upper trough over the southern rockies. Later tonight, a strong low level jet will develop in advance of the approaching upper trough, with low clouds developing and spreading north across the area after midnight. Lows tonight will range from the upper 30s and lower 40s across the Big Country, to the lower and middle 40s elsewhere, and should occur shortly after midnight, with temperatures likely rising into the 50s across southern sections as warm air advection ramps up.
This will most likely lead to flurries as the sounding is still below freezing with the exception of a very shallow near surface later making drizzle also a lesser possibility. Sunday a upper level trough will move through the central Plains into the Ozarks.
There is a little bit of cirrus spilling overtop the ridge axis out of Ontario and down into northern Michigan resulting in just a touch of cloud cover this evening. As mentioned above, a little bit of cirrus will continue to spill overtop the ridge axis through Wednesday and we will see some daytime Cu development once again Wednesday afternoon. High pressure over Quebec extends ridging toward the eastern lakes as well as Huron. The high will retrograde westward, and be directly overhead by late Wednesday. High Impact Weather Potential: Minimal Pattern/Forecast: Current upper level pattern features continued ridging across the Great Lakes bound on either side by nearly stationary upper level lows; showcasing the omega block that has been over the CONUS the past couple days.
an elongated trough over the northwestern states rotating northward and its associated cold front will kick off storms across central Nebraska later this evening. Lingering showers and thunderstorms tomorrow morning will allow for a cooler start to the day with clouds possibly lingering into late morning to early afternoon. As clouds scour out, temperatures should recover fairly rapidly and we could see heat indices quickly climb into the lower 100s. As a broad upper ridge builds over the central conus the rest of this week, heat and humidity will remain a concern, especially headed into the holiday weekend. Finally, during the second half of the forecast period a low pressure center slowly traverses the area from east to west.
934 PM EDT Tue Jun 30 2020 Weak high pressure remains northwest of the region into the end of the week as a trough of low pressure develops over the Mid Atlantic. A weak trough is located over the coastal Mid-Atlantic and ern Carolinas late this evening. An upper low remains nearly stationary over New England on Wednesday.
A departing low pressure system will bring a few showers and maybe an afternoon thunderstorm to far northeast Nevada this afternoon.
A weak secondary trough is expected to pass overhead tonight generating some high cloudiness, but no precipitation is expected save an isolated shower over the central Idaho mountains.
1036 PM EDT Tue Jun 30 2020 Currently - A ridge axis extends westward across extreme South Florida and the Keys. Lower level ridging remains overhead, resulting in a good amount of dry air above 900 mb seen in this evenings sounding. Short Term Update - Ridging will continue to linger near the Keys through the overnight period. Temperatures for most places will creep down into the lower 80s. A nearby ridge axis will keep winds light and mostly out of the southeast.
High pressure building in from the north will then bring slightly drier air to the area by late Wednesday through the end of the week. While the frontal boundary will become weaker and will settle just south of the region, with high pressure working in from the north. The ridge portion of the block will extend over the Mississippi Valley up into the western Great Lakes. The beginning of the period should be dry as high pressure at the surface over Wisconsin brings in more stable air. The ridge will begin to expand in size as the eastern U.
820 PM MDT Tue Jun 30 2020 Positive tilt upper trough axis moving across our CWA producing a line of convection moving through Rosebud County at this time. Although drier at low- levels, rain showers will form and come off the mountains this afternoon and evening as the upper trough axis passes over the area.
The synoptic pattern continues to maintain a strong upper ridge anchored over the eastern Pacific (140W longitude) with a broad negatively-tilted trough across the Upper Intermountain West. Aside from fair weather cumulus fields over the higher terrain, nearly cloudless skies are evident on visible satellite imagery over interior northern California. Early afternoon temperatures have reached the upper 80s, locally into the low 90s with numbers likely to rise another 2 to 4 degrees given further diurnal heating. On a broad sense, troughing is forecast to extend over much of western Canada into the Pacific Northwest through the remainder of the work week.
520 PM MDT Tue Jun 30 2020 Neg tilted upper trough axis now lifting northeast over eastern Wyoming with some light showers along it, with other showers and a few storms out over Carbon county. Dry and warmer conditions across the CWA Wednesday with the upper flow gradually turning swly as a weakening upper low drifts north over sw Canada and upper ridging builds northward over the central CONUS.
Highs will be cooler in the low to mid 80s along the lakeshore with mid to upper 80s to perhaps lower 90s elsewhere.
837 PM EDT Tue Jun 30 2020 High pressure over Quebec extends ridging toward the eastern lakes as well as Huron. The high will retrograde westward, and be directly overhead by late Wednesday. High Impact Weather Potential: Minimal Pattern/Forecast: Current upper level pattern features continued ridging across the Great Lakes bound on either side by nearly stationary upper level lows; showcasing the omega block that has been over the CONUS the past couple days.
Overnight lows will be in the low to mid 70s in the rain cooled air. Expect showers and thunderstorms to continue through the evening with lift from upper trough acting on a moist and unstable airmass.
458 PM MDT Tue Jun 30 2020 Upper trough axis and associated cold pool moving across Billings and central zones at this hour. Although drier at low- levels, rain showers will form and come off the mountains this afternoon and evening as the upper trough axis passes over the area.
High pressure will hold south of the waters through late in the week, with west winds generally remaining less than 15 knots.
An upper level trough dropping into the Pacific Northwest over the next few days will increase the marine cloud coverage each night and morning and may limit afternoon clearing.
A deepening upper trough along the East Coast will aid a cold front in dropping south into the area during the day, and will favor precip development. Some showers or storms could linger into the evening in our southern counties, but will come to an end as heating is lost and what's left of the cold front drops to our south.
High pressure will build over southern California this weekend resulting in slightly warmer conditions and mainly clear skies. Upper low than brought much cooler temperatures over the last couple of days continues to move away over the northern Rockies. The air mass is quickly midwifing under the late June sun with 24 hr trends showing temperatures across the San Joaquin Valley running 8-12 degrees warmer. Expect highs this afternoon to top out right around climatological normals, which is generally in the lower to mid 90s for the SJ Valley. The upper low lifts north over Canada on Wednesday but another trough quickly forms over British Columbia.
Expect stronger convection late tomorrow morning through the afternoon as the upper trough slides down the NW flow aloft into Middle Tennessee and we add some daytime heating.
VFr resume Wednesday late morning and afternoon as the low level moisture mixes out. /issued 318 PM CDT Tue Jun 30 2020/ SHORT TERM (Tonight through Wednesday Night): 500 mb mid-level ridging has built westward over the region and will remain in control across the state through the short term period. At the surface, high pressure extending into the Gulf of Mexico and dryline/thermal low pressure across the Sierra Madre Oriental will result in moderate to breezy south to southeasterly winds.
as high pressure will basically remain stationary over the Upper Great Lakes. Otherwise, low temps tonight will range from the mid and upper 50s across the higher terrain to the low to mid 60s elsewhere. High temps tomorrow will top out in the mid to upper 70s across the higher terrain and mainly low 80s for the lower elevations, with some mid 80s not out of the question for the traditionally warmest spots. For this period there will not be much change in the flow aloft, with the ridge axis of an omega block remaining across the Plains and western Great Lakes.
645 PM CDT Tue Jun 30 2020 For Aviation section only Pattern remains essentially stagnant, with meandering mid/upper low situated over the mid MS River Valley, and very moist and unstable air in place over the lower OH Valley. the flow around the upper low will become more nwly with time, and should support most activity moving sse down the river valley. Overall, severe risk looks to be on the low side, esp compared to the heavy rain potential. Eventually, as we head into Wed night/Thu time frame, upper level ridging should begin to build in from the west. Hot and humid conditions will remain, however, with highs up near 90 and dew points in the lower half of the 70s.
CDG Chattanooga Airport, TN 70 85 71 89 69 / 60 70 60 40 20 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 69 84 68 88 67 / 50 60 40 30 10 Oak Ridge, TN 68 84 68 88 67 / 50 60 40 30 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 65 82 64 86 62 / 40 60 30 10 10.
1025 PM EDT Tue Jun 30 2020 An upper level trough will be over the eastern US through much of the week. Late in the week, the closed upper low will move east and should be replaced by a weak upper trough.
Temperatures have cooled into the low 70s where substantial rain has fallen with low 80s across most of the Midsouth.
826 PM MDT Tue Jun 30 2020 Positive tilt upper trough axis moving across our CWA producing a line of convection moving through Rosebud County at this time. Although drier at low- levels, rain showers will form and come off the mountains this afternoon and evening as the upper trough axis passes over the area.
The good news is that the high temperatures for this afternoon have been lowered a couple of degrees as the 850 mb thermal ridge sets up to the west of the area. The bad news is that dew points are set to remain in the low to mid 70s across the area this afternoon. However, there will be an uptick in the shower and thunderstorm chances Thursday afternoon and evening as back door cold front sags into the region from the northeast.
As of 3am, there is ongoing convection mainly along the Highway 81 corridor and moving eastward into eastern Nebraska. Most of the high or higher resolution guidance keep the area dry. The upper ridge will begin to broaden into the weekend and persist. On Thursday night a weak wave moves northeast and helps to fire convection across the High Plains. As the ridge builds in, cannot rule out off and on showers and thunderstorms, but do think for most it will be a dry week.
Modest deformation axis will bisect the CWA from northwest to southeast today, so relatively high low- level moisture will likely remain in place across our southwest, while afternoon dewpoints look to mix out solidly into the low to mid 60s elsewhere.
Above average temperatures are expected over the Ohio River Valley today and tonight as high pressure continues to linger near the Great Lakes. If a pop up shower develops it would likely occur near the ridges of West Virginia due to upsloping; otherwise dry weather will prevail. There will be little change to our weather pattern, warm and dry conditions will persist as high pressure builds to our west. Broad ridging centered over the central CONUS will be the dominant feature this weekend. Broad Eastern CONUS ridging will support general VFR with exception for incidents of peri-dawn fog, no appreciable precipitation is forecast through the weekend.
411 AM EDT Wed Jul 1 2020 Generally uneventful weather will continue through the rest of the week as high pressure remains across the region. Upper-level Omega blocking pattern persisting with a lingering low over New England. Scattered diurnally driven convecton expected this afternoon and early evening across the eastern Lake Ontario region closer to the upper low. The upper low over southern New England will track southeast into the Atlantic Ocean Thursday. A mid-level trough will approach from eastern Canada while northwest flow aloft sets up.
Hot and dry today as the ridge of high pressure remains over the Panhandles. Thursday moisture will begin to draw up on the back side of the ridge and the chances of thunderstorms will return.
Still have the weak low trapped underneath an upper ridge over the mid/upper Mississippi valley region. Have the higher pops in the eastern CWA today (not high enough if the NAMNest verifies) which is indicated by all the models as stronger capping inversion will be over the western CWA. That will keep temperatures there cooler in the upper 80s to around 90. Not real gung-ho on this with the upper ridge and capping inversion over the area.
MA Chattanooga Airport, TN 85 71 89 69 90 / 50 30 40 20 20 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 84 68 88 67 91 / 50 20 30 10 10 Oak Ridge, TN 84 68 88 67 91 / 50 20 30 10 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 82 64 86 62 89 / 30 10 10 10 10.
340 AM EDT Wed Jul 1 2020 Weak high pressure remains northwest of the region into the end of the week as a trough of low pressure develops over the Mid Atlantic. ISOLD shras/tstms continuing INVOF the lower MD ern shore and areas of the piedmont in central VA attm. A weak trough sfc-aloft will be pushing across the local area. At the start of the holiday weekend the upper level trough will be east of the area with an upper ridge trying to build in the west. Meanwhile, an area of low pressure begins to form in the vicinity of the FL panhandle.
900 PM PDT Tue Jun 30 2020 A trough of low pressure over the western states will weaken with high pressure to the south and east expanding into southern California Thursday through the holiday weekend.
Temperatures have cooled into the low 70s where substantial rain has fallen with low 80s across most of the Midsouth. By tomorrow night into Thursday a back door cold front will push through the Mid- South allowing for more convection through the end of the week. Unfortunately, heat indices will around 102-105F with with tomorrow forecasted to have the highest heat indices.
Evening update: Water vapor reveals our next low pressure system dropping into North-Central WA. but now midlevel lapse rates are steepening as the 500mb cold pool drops in the region and midlevel flow convergences along the trough axis.
1120 PM EDT Tue Jun 30 2020 Fairly quiet evening compared to the last few with only a few showers over the highest terrain in southeast Kentucky. A deepening upper trough along the East Coast will aid a cold front in dropping south into the area during the day, and will favor precip development. Some showers or storms could linger into the evening in our southern counties, but will come to an end as heating is lost and what's left of the cold front drops to our south. The upper level pattern will feature a ridge setting up across the Plains and this feature will push east by Thursday.
an elongated trough over the northwestern states rotating northward and its associated cold front will kick off storms across central Nebraska later this evening. Lingering showers and thunderstorms tomorrow morning will allow for a cooler start to the day with clouds possibly lingering into late morning to early afternoon. As clouds scour out, temperatures should recover fairly rapidly and we could see heat indices quickly climb into the lower 100s. As a broad upper ridge builds over the central conus the rest of this week, heat and humidity will remain a concern, especially headed into the holiday weekend.
Rain chances are expected to be mainly 40-60% across the area with highs in the low to mid 90s. On Thursday, the models begin to carve out an upper level trough across the southeast states with a vort max diving southward. High temperatures are expected to be slightly cooler in the upper 80s to lower 90s with more cloud cover and precip around.
351 AM CDT Wed Jul 1 2020 An upper level trough is over the northwestern part of the country with westerly flow over West Texas and southeast New Mexico. Temperatures will be slightly cooler on Thursday with highs mostly in the 90s and storms will be possible areawide.
This system would tend to dive southeast into central Missouri late tonight and potentially reach the Highway 60 corridor by sunrise. Lows tonight will again fall into the lower to middle 70s. 2) The higher end of model guidance indicates that Excessive Heat Warning criteria (heat indices >= 110 degrees) may be in reach near the I-49 corridor. Some models break out quite a bit of convection and keep temperatures cooler as a surface front backs into the region from the northeast. Other models keep the summertime ridge strong with near triple digit temperatures along the I-49 corridor.
The Subtropical Ridge takes hold over South Central Texas with increasing subsidence, capping warm mid level temperatures, and decreasing moisture aloft keeping rain out of the forecast with one exception. A couple of hi-res models show a hint of sprinkles this morning due to the low level jet moving over the Escarpment. A stronger Ridge keeps any showers and thunderstorms well west of our area on Thursday. High temperatures trend upward each day as there is a greater influence of the Subtropical Ridge and lower level thermal ridge.
Highs today will be in the mid to upper 90s with lows tonight in the lower to mid 70s.
SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday): With mid level and surface ridging building over Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley from the east, temperatures will remain seasonally hot and subsidence will inhibit any mentionable rain chances through the short term period.
While the ridge builds, near daily chances for rain and storms will exist, as the southwest flow continues to send impulses through the flow. While daily chances for storms seems less than exciting, the overall building ridge pattern will keep chances for any widespread severe activity low for now.
The atmosphere has dried out compared to recent days but a lingering trough of low pressure will support a few showers this morning, followed by scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon as instability increases. Daytime temperatures will be warmer than yesterday but still quite cool for this time of year with valley highs only in the 60s.
359 AM EDT Wed Jul 1 2020 Upper level low pressure will once again bring a a chance for showers and afternoon thunderstorms today. Upper low finally exits the region Wednesday night. High pressure starts to build into the region Thursday with warming temperatures through the weekend, but still isolated to scattered diurnal showers and thunderstorms possible each day. The upper level low starts sliding SE tonight and eventually out to sea, with high pressure and drier air starting push into the region on Thursday. The combination of a trough off the New England coast and a building ridge over the Central U.
302 AM EDT Wed Jul 1 2020 Weak high pressure remains northwest of the region into the end of the week as a trough of low pressure develops over the Mid Atlantic. ISOLD shras/tstms continuing INVOF the lower MD ern shore and areas of the piedmont in central VA attm. A weak trough sfc-aloft will be pushing across the local area. At the start of the holiday weekend the upper level trough will be east of the area with an upper ridge trying to build in the west. Meanwhile, an area of low pressure begins to form in the vicinity of the FL panhandle.
1136 PM MDT Tue Jun 30 2020 Neg tilted upper trough axis now lifting northeast over eastern Wyoming with some light showers along it, with other showers and a few storms out over Carbon county. Dry and warmer conditions across the CWA Wednesday with the upper flow gradually turning swly as a weakening upper low drifts north over sw Canada and upper ridging builds northward over the central CONUS.