Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1043 AM CDT THU JUN 9 2016 Temperatures were on their way this morning already in the upper 70s to the lower 80s. A warm front currently over the eastern CWA is the focus mechanism for convection this morning. An area of low pressure and associated cold front will slide across southern Canada late this afternoon and through the overnight hours. Thunderstorms will develop along the cold front over eastern MT and western ND where better instability and deep layer shear will be located.
Seasonable temperatures expected today as a high pressure center builds across our region.
1056 AM EDT THU JUN 9 2016 Temperatures will remain cool today under a northwest flow before gradually moderating Friday as high pressure moves into the region.
For our area, we remain under upper level ridging with a weak upper level low near the Gulf Coast that continues to cause some scattered afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. In addition, daytime heating is resulting in afternoon showers and thunderstorms across the higher terrain west of our forecast area.
632 AM CDT THU JUN 9 2016 High pressure has moved east of Arkansas. Today Through Friday Night A large ridge of high pressure is over the center part of the country with an upper trough over the eastern third. and another trough entering the Pacific Northwest. The upper ridge will spread eastward through the period and will encompass much of the country by Friday night.
High pressure over northern Indiana and the southern great lakes will continue to bring dry weather through Monday night as it drifts eastward. A southerly flow on the back side of the high will cause it to become warmer and more humid next few days.
334 AM MDT SUN JUL 10 2016 High pressure aloft and low level westerly winds will bring hot mostly dry weather with above normal temperatures to southern New Mexico and west Texas this week. There will be sufficient moisture for isolated showers and thunderstorms but most of the activity will occur around the high mountain areas.
This ridge will keep the stationary front south and west of the area.
Lingering showers and thunderstorms from central MN into west central Wisconsin will yield cooler highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s there. Conversely, southerly flow and increasing moisture return will bring some extreme heat concerns over west central MN where heat indices creep over 100 degrees this afternoon near the Buffalo Ridge where downsloping will enhance warming. Another round of nocturnal thunderstorms is expected late tonight as the low level jet increases, particularly over west central MN. A significant cap ahead of the cold front is likely as 70H temperatures warm into the 12-14C range.
A weak cold front, characterized more by drier air than cooler, will settle toward the coast of NC today. Isolated to locally scattered showers and thunderstorms have pushed to the east of central North Carolina this evening ahead of a weak surface cold front. Low temps are expected to range from the upper 60s north/northwest to the lower to mid 70s southeast. Overnight temps will vary from the upper 60s northwest where a slightly drier air mass may be able to filter into this region behind the sfc boundary, to the lower 70s southeast. Comparable overnight temps in the upper 60s northwest to the lower 70s southeast.
Temps will be slightly cooler North and East due to storms modifying temps and cloud cover lingering a bit longer.
345 AM EDT SUN JUL 10 2016 Today will be cooler with lingering scattered rain showers mainly in central New York.
A warmer and windier day on tap for Sunday, with S/SE winds ramping up quickly starting around 10 AM. Strongest winds are expected this afternoon, as lee trough/dryline strengthens further, and 00z NAM progs about 10 mb of pressure gradient between Syracuse and Kiowa.
Currently, southwest flow aloft remains over the region with an upper level ridge axis east and a strong upper level low over the Pacific NW. Upper level low moves slowly east into the Intermountain west during the day, with strong forcing materializing across the region as an upper level jet rounds the base of the low and starts to increase upper level diffluence across the Northern High Plains and eventually into the Dakotas increasing large scale ascent.
159 AM CDT SUN JUL 10 2016 140 PM CDT A quiet night ahead with 1018 mb high pressure to move over with the sky likely clearing by sundown. Even with that the 850-925mb temperatures will warm a couple degrees C from this afternoon and highs should result a tad warmer than today, with onshore flow still keeping lake adjacent areas in the 70s. MTF 225 PM CDT High pressure begins to shift east Sunday night, and expecting dry conditions through Monday night. The upper level ridge builds over the region Sunday night, and it allows warm and muggy air to return to the region. High temps Monday will be in the upper 80s with heat indices in the low 90s.
402 AM EDT SUN JUL 10 2016 An area of high pressure resides over the central Gulf of Mexico this morning as evident on water vapor imagery and surface analysis, while the western flank of an Atlantic ridge of high pressure stretches across South Florida and the Florida Keys. Temperatures sit in the low to mid 80's across the islands, with dewpoints sultry in the mid to upper 70's. The Florida Keys will reside along the western flank of an Atlantic ridge of high pressure Sunday, keeping winds light and generally out of the east southeast. As a result, temperatures will continue to remain a few degrees above normal, highs in the lower 90's giving way to head index values in the 100-105F range. The aforementioned ridge will begin shifting northward by Sunday night, with the axis aligning across north central Florida.
Increasing southerly winds will usher moisture into the Great Lakes region ahead of a strong low pressure over the northern Plains. Bulk Shear will be on the lower end during the day, but increase substantially during the evening as the low approaches. Thunderstorms are expected to develop over MN during the day Monday just ahead of a cold front.
Will continue the low end chance pops for the western areas for now and adjust later morning as needed. The surface and 850 mb warm front is progged to lift into northern Minnesota and into northwest Wisconsin late afternoon or evening. What convection does develop tonight should then be on the decrease Monday as the best forcing with the warm front lifts north into the Northern Great Lakes region.
a weak upper level trough axis was situated from the lower Mississipi Valley to eastern Kentucky this morning. Deep moisture and precip potential was located on the forward/southeast side of the trough.
359 AM EDT SUN JUL 10 2016 Deep layer subtropical high pressure ridge will dominate South Florida through the week, bringing seasonably hot and humid conditions to the region.
Presence of a ridge axis over S FL and little change in temperature and moisture profiles will lead to a persistent forecast for precip coverage today. Ridge axis shifts toward the central portion of the Peninsula, shifting winds more southerly and even southeasterly across the Treasure Coast. Afternoon storm coverage looks to remain below normal as the local airmass remains largely suppressed with ridging overtop the state. The Bermuda Ridge axis will remain firmly in place over the FL peninsula with a slight northward jog into the north central peninsula area by midweek.
The mid and upper level disturbance on the eastern side of the ridge responsible for the storms will slide off to the east today. 25", and the upper level ridge starts to build back east into the area.
The large upper trough and closed low will continue to drive dynamic support for severe weather late in the day and this evening with diffluent upper level southwest flow.
At the surface this morning high pressure is moving in from the north while the Ohio Valley is in northwest flow aloft. High pressure will generally shift east through Monday with broad ridging building in aloft. Monday will be a couple of degrees warmer, right around seasonal normals.
Substantial capping in place as well with warm base of elevated mixed layer inhibiting initiation and as noted in SPC discussion, no significant large scale forcing with the parent upper low well to the west. There also seems to be some general agreement among the high res models for convection spreading into western ND after 00z. Therefore, expecting convection to continue overnight with support of strengthening low level jet, which leads into Sunday where the effects of better large scale forcing associated with the upper low approaching from the west will increase. Precipitation will likely be slow to exit the region as deep upper low only reaches eastern Montana by 12z Monday.
Afternoon temperatures on the lower deserts will remain near, or a few degrees above normal.
111 AM EDT SUN JUL 10 2016 A cold front will drift south tonight and stall near the North Carolina-South Carolina border as weak high pressure build into the region from the northwest Sunday.
312 AM CDT SUN JUL 10 2016 An Upper level ridge axis across the plains will shift east into the mid and upper MS river valley Tonight. An upper level trough across the western US will move east into the central Rockies late Tonight. Since the upper ridge axis will be moving across the CWA this afternoon, I don't expect any ascent for isolated afternoon or early evening thunderstorms to develop. It will be another warm day with highs in the lower to mid 90s.
A short wave trof axis near the Alabama and Tennessee state line will shift slowly southward overnight and stall out near the I-59 corridor on Sunday. The trof axis will provide a focus for scattered to numerous convection Sunday afternoon, mainly along and south of I-20.
644 AM EDT SUN JUL 10 2016 High pressure will remain in control of the weather today into Monday with dry conditions and moderating temperatures. High temperatures today will reach into the lower to mid 80s, with highs on Monday warming into the mid to possibly upper 80s.
352 AM CDT SUN JUL 10 2016 (Today and Tonight) Hot and mainly dry conditions are expected through the next 24 hours as an upper level ridge dominates the weather across West Central Texas. (Monday through Sunday) Upper level ridge will inch a little closer, dominating the weather across West Central Texas.
Surface ridging will keep winds generally light through the period.
associated with a weak upper level trough that will slowly slip S across extreme NE TX/N LA through Sunday. it should drift S across the region with the upper trough axis and gradually diminish during the evening. However, weaknesses aloft within the upper level trough sagging southward over the region will help to keep at least slight chances going through early Sunday morning with higher chances returning during the heating of the day on Sunday. So, have adjusted pops accordingly with the higher chances over East Texas tonight before diminishing slightly after midnight.
A short wave trough over central Texas will move south into the area today providing an increase in mid and high level cloudiness.
344 AM CDT SUN JUL 10 2016 Warm and humid ahead of cold front arriving Monday, then potential for severe with that front, are the primary concerns of thIS forecast. Mid level ridging will remain over Kansas/Nebraska/Iowa region much of today before heights begin to fall tonight as upper low swings into the Northern Rockies. However current complex in the Northern Plains is forecast to round ridge and drop into southern Minnesota and Iowa later this morning. Lowering heights are forecast overnight and Monday as fast southwest mid level flow overspreads Nebraska and the Dakotas ahead of upper low forecast into the Northern High Plains Monday afternoon. Attention then turns to cold front moving into northeast Nebraska Monday afternoon.
652 AM EDT SUN JUL 10 2016 High pressure over the region today will transition to the east over the next few days. Highs should reach the lower 80s across the fa today. H5 ridge builds east into the region on Monday. This ridge will provide dry weather with a warming trend.
00z SFC analysis shows high pressure pushing into the Ohio Valley and East Kentucky is benefiting as the higher dewpoint and more oppressive air has been pushed south of the state along with a washed out cold front.
1156 PM MDT SAT JUL 9 2016 Isolated thunderstorms will develop in northeast Colorado this afternoon along the lee trough. with the upper level ridge axis very close. Nearly zonal upper level flow with chances for rainfall and cooler temperatures. Sunday evening an upper level short wave trough will move over the west half of the Tri-State Area where the retreating dry line will be located. Late Sunday night a cold front will begin moving south through the Tri-State Area ahead of the primary upper level short wave trough over the Great Basin. During the afternoon another upper level short wave trough will move across the front as the main trough moves east onto the Northern Plains. Monday evening the upper level short wave trough will deepen over the stalled front and moisture advection will occur in roughly the 700-600mb layer.
Afternoon temperatures on the lower deserts will remain near, or a few degrees above normal. A series of deep upper-level trofs that will be moving eastward across the pacific nw/northern Great Basin is expected to keep the Desert Southwest under deep westerly flow aloft through the entire period.
1220 AM CDT SUN JUL 10 2016 140 PM CDT A quiet night ahead with 1018 mb high pressure to move over with the sky likely clearing by sundown. Even with that the 850-925mb temperatures will warm a couple degrees C from this afternoon and highs should result a tad warmer than today, with onshore flow still keeping lake adjacent areas in the 70s. MTF 225 PM CDT High pressure begins to shift east Sunday night, and expecting dry conditions through Monday night. The upper level ridge builds over the region Sunday night, and it allows warm and muggy air to return to the region. High temps Monday will be in the upper 80s with heat indices in the low 90s.
319 AM CDT SUN JUL 10 2016 Weak upper trof noted on water vapor loop from west Tennessee into northeast Texas. At the surface, weak high pressure remains over the northern Gulf of Mexico. As usual in mid July, temperatures at 3 am running from the mid 70s to the lower 80s with dew points primarily in the mid 70s. Expect little day to day change in temperatures, with most highs in the lower and middle 90s and lows in the mid to upper 70s.
A low pressure system will shift southward along the northern and central Oregon coast early this morning then move inland over the area during the day. The upper low will shift east of the area late this evening and tonight with diminishing showers. Drier and warmer conditions return on Monday.
High pressure will be East of the region Today, with a trough of low pressure to the Northwest. The convection will be aided over SE GA by the proximity of the trough.
Locally breezy conditions are expected again this afternoon with slightly warmer inland temperatures. Should see inland clouds burn-off through the late morning and give way to mostly sunny conditions region-wide this afternoon with slightly warmer temperatures compared to yesterday. Tranquil weather conditions are forecast for much of the upcoming week as high pressure builds over the southwestern portion of the country. Meanwhile, a persistent onshore flow and day-to- day fluctuations in the marine layer will keep cooler temperatures near the coast.
Nam shows an upper level trough over the Rockies and a broad ridge over the central U. This trough moves very slowly to the east and is in the northern plains by 00z Wed. In the extended, GFS and ECMWF show a 500 mb trough over the upper Great Lakes 12z Wed which remains through 12z Fri. The trough then broadens out on Sat. VFR conditions will continue through the night and well into the day Sunday as high pressure continues to move through the region. As the high retreats to the east, look for increasing clouds Sunday with an increasing chance for showers and thunderstorms at KIWD in the afternoon and evening.
436 AM CDT SUN JUL 10 2016 Today is expected to be even warmer than yesterday with the upper ridge still located over the plains, but with stronger southerly sfc winds. This will be a hot wind as high temperatures climb into the lower and mid 90s across south central Nebraska, with mid to upper 90s expected over north central Kansas. A rather significant upper low for this time of year will be tracking across the northern rockies today into tonight. Should storms form and track into our area or develop over our area on the low level jet, can not rule out the possibility of a storm or two briefly being strong to severe. An upper level wave and cold front are expected to move through the forecast area Monday and Monday night.
The cold front that was expected to stall across southern Missouri or northern Arkansas last night actually pushed all the way to southern Arkansas before stalling. Models slowly bring the upper level ridge to the east Sunday with most of the rain chances remaining to the south. There will be a chance for a summer time afternoon showers or storms underneath the ridge as southerly winds continue to bring moisture into the area.
Highs on Sunday will reach the lower 80s and push into the mid to upper 80s on Monday.
316 AM CDT SUN JUL 10 2016 High pressure ridge over the southwest was quite evident on both IR and water vapor imagery this morning, and this feature will stay established over the forecast area today. Flat upper level ridging over the southern tier of the continental U. still progged for this week with any short wave troughs to stay in the jet stream across southern Canada and the northern CONUS.
321 AM CDT SUN JUL 10 2016 06Z surface data has high pressure from the Great Lakes into the lower Mississippi Valley. At the very worst an isolated shower or some sprinkles may occur in the highway 20 corridor.
/Issued 440 AM CDT SUN JUL 10 2016/ Upper level ridge building across New Mexico and the Panhandles. At the surface, the pattern the next few days will resemble more of a spring-like pattern with leeside troughing and gusty south to southwesterly winds. But high temperatures, thanks to an 850mb thermal ridge will definitely feel like summer. As the lee trough strengthens today, downslope westerly winds are expected to remain mostly over New Mexico and keep our high temperatures from skyrocketing too high, though widespread low to mid 100s over the west seems pretty likely. The 850mb thermal ridge accompanies this as well, so expect temperatures to remain in the low to mid 100s with very low RH values across the western half of the Panhandles. behind the upper low moving into the Northern Plains.
A weak cold front, characterized more by drier air than cooler, will settle toward the coast of NC today. Isolated to locally scattered showers and thunderstorms have pushed to the east of central North Carolina this evening ahead of a weak surface cold front. Low temps are expected to range from the upper 60s north/northwest to the lower to mid 70s southeast. Overnight temps will vary from the upper 60s northwest where a slightly drier air mass may be able to filter into this region behind the sfc boundary, to the lower 70s southeast. Comparable overnight temps in the upper 60s northwest to the lower 70s southeast. A subtropical ridge amplifies up the Atlantic coast concurrent with some retrogression of the Bermuda high.
104 AM EDT SUN JUL 10 2016 A weak cold front will drop into the area today bringing slightly lower humidity before returning north on Monday. Bermuda high pressure will build westward through mid-week, bringing near to slightly above normal daytime temperatures, along with a few afternoon showers and thunderstorms. A weak cold front will drop south into the area this morning, shifting winds to a northerly direction. The lower dewpoints across portions of the area during peak heating as a result of drier air mixing to the surface have recovered into the 70s again.
with the highest potential of stronger to potentially severe thunderstorms over far eastern sections. with the highest potential for more widespread fire weather concerns focused northwest to west to southwest of the forecast district Sunday as noted by latest Day 2 SPC Fire Weather Outlook.
Overnight lows will remain on the warmer side (only in the upper 60s and low 70s). Hottest temperatures are forecast across the north (mainly Keya Paha and Boyd counties) with air temperatures reaching up into the upper 90s and heat indexes in the low 100s. Sunday night, an upper trough will advance into the northern plains.
Look for a chance of showers/t-storms to continue across the region for today as an upper trough will maintain its presence across the Four State region along with potential development along existing outflow boundaries. Despite the rainfall across the region, temperatures are expected to reach into the low to mid 90s across most of the region. A slight chance of pops will linger across the region on Monday as the upper trough departs out of the region.
133 AM EDT SUN JUL 10 2016 Weak upper level ridging will give way to an approaching upper trough by Sunday while a weak surface boundary moves into the northern Midlands Sunday and washes out. The upper trough over the Ohio/Mississippi Valleys sinks further south into the lower Mississippi Valley with somewhat of a weak southwesterly flow aloft developing over the region on Sunday.
1136 PM MDT SAT JUL 9 2016 Water vapor shows upper ridge over the nrn Rockies beginning to shift into the nrn plains. Short wave moving through the ridge producing isold shra/tsra across nern WY and far SD. broad low pressure extends from sern MT through wrn SD. Even hotter temps expected with thermal ridge centered over wrn SD.
A change in the upper level weather pattern will take place today as the center of the pesky upper level ridge will become more established over the southwest U. at the surface and the low levels, high pressure will be centered off of Florida and ridge westward across the Gulf South and into the forecast area. The one change will be a little bit more in convective activity as an upper level high weakens allowing showers and thunderstorms to increase in coverage.
329 AM CDT SUN JUL 10 2016 Forecast for today will depend a lot on where the warm frontal boundary is located.
219 AM MDT SUN JUL 10 2016 Isolated thunderstorms will develop in northeast Colorado this afternoon along the lee trough. with the upper level ridge axis very close.
1038 PM PDT SAT JUL 9 2016 A deep low pressure system moves through the region this weekend, with cool temperatures and rain showers, some which could produce moderate rainfall amounts. /Pelatti 06Z TAFS: Numerous disturbances rotating around the edges of a larger low pressure area centered off the coast will keep unsettled weather at times over parts of Southeast Washington and Northern Idaho.
304 AM CDT SUN JUL 10 2016 07z/2am surface analysis shows ridge of high pressure extending from the Great Lakes into Illinois. ridging is building over the Plains in response to a deep trough digging across the Pacific Northwest. Will need to keep an eye on this system, but think it will completely dissipate by early to mid afternoon across central Iowa as it tries to push into the prevailing ridge axis and unfavorably dry airmass further east. As high pressure shifts off to the east, the very warm/humid airmass poised just southwest of Illinois will filter back northward by Monday.
359 AM MDT SUN JUL 10 2016 Upper ridge axis extended from the Desert Southwest northeast to the Upper Midwest. Upper low was approaching the WA/OR coast, with strong southwest flow aloft across the Intermountain West. Wavy surface boundary extended from NV to lows over northern UT, WY and ND, with a trough from southwest SD through eastern CO to southeast NM. The model guidance is in good agreement with the eastward track of the upper low and trough from the Pacific Northwest through the northern Rockies and Great Plains.
For tonight, conditions look to be mostly dry with lows in the lower 70s.