Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
955 PM MDT Mon Oct 23 2017 Only minor updates at this time for some cirrus clouds and cooler lows in the colder locations. High pressure at the surface and aloft are building over Colorado this afternoon and tonight which will result in a continuation of dry and seasonal weather. The northerly flow will be bringing in cooler air, but as heights gradually rise, surface temperatures will be warming a few degrees. The clear skies and dew points in the lower 20s will allow overnight temperatures to drop to the lower 30s on the plains, and cooler at higher locations. This will lead to the higher mountain ridges being the main places to see any gusty winds.
Proton Previous Discussion: An upper level ridge positioned over the western U. As the upper level trough that impacted the area over the past couple of days continues to deepen and shift toward the Great Lakes, the jet core that brought the very strong winds to eastern Montana will finally depart this evening. With the ridge moving into northeast Montana Tuesday, the area will see warmer temperatures with the associated height rises, with highs ranging from near 60 to near 70 degrees in the southwest.
A secondary cold front draped across southwest Illinois and southeast Missouri will push rapidly east across the region through the evening. A much cooler pattern will remain established for the most part of the near term as a chilly batch of Canadian air works its way south through the Plains and into the lower OH Valley region Tuesday and Tuesday night.
612 PM CDT Mon Oct 23 2017 /00Z TAFS/ A weak cold front will continue to move through the area early this evening, resulting in a wind shift to the north. /issued 347 PM CDT Mon Oct 23 2017/ (Tonight and Tuesday) A dry cold front will move through all of West Central Texas through this evening. Ideal radiational cooling conditions will allow for temperatures to fall into the lower 40s and possibly even the upper 30s in lower lying areas.
Upper level ridging is now in control, and east winds are flowing in the lower levels. Here, the low level winds will align with the terrain, and breezy to even gusty winds are likely to develop tonight and into the morning. The result will be warmer overnight temperatures and a distinct lack of fog as moisture is scoured out. The aforementioned upper level ridge is strong enough to tilt the register on anomaly tables, showing record forecast heights, and in return, near record daily temperatures, for several locations in the forecast area on Tuesday.
Temperatures in southeast KS may be a bit cooler as light winds will persist longer.
751 PM EDT Mon Oct 23 2017 As a cold front tracks through the area tonight.
Another surge of high pressure will arrive by late Tuesday morning resulting in moderate and gusty north winds through late afternoon. High pressure will remain in control through the short term in some way, shape, or form. Current high over us today will quickly be absorbed by another high pressure sinking southward on the leeside of the Rockies later tonight and tomorrow. This should help keep winds northerly and should continue to filter in drier and perhaps a touch cooler air through the short term period. As the high moves southward from the eastern Rocking into the TX panhandle region a decent pressure gradient will set up Tuesday increasing northerly surface winds. With the higher winds expect elevated risk for rip tides along area beaches Tuesday and Tuesday evening.
522 PM MDT Mon Oct 23 2017 Gusty northwest winds were prevalent over much of the area this afternoon, due to a fairly tight pressure gradient in between the upper level ridge along the west coast and a fast moving upper level trof moving through the northern Plains. This upper level ridge is expected to build over the region during the next couple of days and result in milder conditions.
703 PM CDT Mon Oct 23 2017 A dry sfc cold front is moving across our eastern counties with gusty winds. A Canadian air mass will remain in place through Tuesday with a large upper level trough over the eastern CONUS. Highs in the 50s, maybe the lower 60s, will be common.
1003 PM EDT Mon Oct 23 2017 Update Low pressure moving north across Lower Michigan will continue to bring heavy rain with some flooding expected through Tuesday. The low will deepen on Tuesday and winds will be ramping up with some strong wind gusts Tuesday and Tuesday night. The other issue we will have to deal with high winds on Tuesday as the low rapidly deepens across northern Lower Michigan. The winds will subside after midnight as the low pulls away.
913 PM CDT Mon Oct 23 2017 Cold front near I-30 poised to continue movg into region tonight. Our next cold front will be moving through overnight with high pressure bridging into the region returning the West and Northwest winds now in place of generally 5-12 knots, to an increasing or tightening pressure gradient, producing strong and gusty Northwest winds of 15-25 knots with higher gusts of 30-35 knots after 24/14Z through the late afternoon on Tuesday.
A reinforcing cold front will move through Tuesday morning, bringing gusty north to northeast winds (20 to 25 kts) during the mid morning through the afternoon. The reinforcing cold front is still on track to move through South Texas on Tuesday morning.
Our next cold front will be moving through overnight with high pressure bridging into the region returning the West and Northwest winds now in place of generally 5-12 knots, to an increasing or tightening pressure gradient, producing strong and gusty Northwest winds of 15-25 knots with higher gusts of 30-35 knots after 24/14Z through the late afternoon on Tuesday.
Some stronger northwest flow aloft remains in place over the northern Colorado mountains with some of the higher ridgetop observing sights gusting over 30 mph. 500mb heights have already begun to rise area-wide, leading to a warmer afternoon today. A large ridge of high pressure will drift toward the region from the Great Basin on Tuesday, bringing a sunny and dry day with temperatures running around 5 degrees above average.
613 PM CDT Mon Oct 23 2017 Deformation zone precipitation looks to linger through the late afternoon from near I-57 eastward due to the upper level trough over IN, lifting northeastward. After reinforcing cool air behind tonight's cold front, lows will dip into the lower 40s tonight, followed by highs only reaching the upper 40s in most of central IL Tuesday. Tuesday night, a pocket of -2 C 850 mb temperatures associated with the trough will move across central IL, producing surface temperatures approaching the freezing mark.
/Issued 251 PM CDT Mon Oct 23 2017/ A dry cold front has pushed through roughly half of the forecast area early this afternoon, with gusty north to northwesterly winds behind it.
601 PM PDT Mon Oct 23 2017 Expect mild, dry conditions through the week, as high pressure builds into the Pacific Northwest.
00 UTC surface analysis shows the cold front had passed a Tallahassee to Valdosta line but had not quite made it to Cross City. The pressure gradient across the region is fairly relaxed as a weak area of high pressure is noted back across Central Mississippi and this will drop SE overnight. A reinforcing shot of cooler and drier air is analyzed further back across the Southern Plains and will be approaching the area on Tuesday. However, the incoming airmass is fairly cool, so expect lows to at least reach the mid 50s, with some cooler reading possible across the western half of the forecast area.
Deep low pressure over the Great Lakes and strong high pressure to the west will create a packed gradient across the High Plains. The cooler temperatures will play a big role in keeping relative humidity above RFW critical thresholds. At this point the lowest humidity is forecast west of highway 61 where readings near 20% are forecast.
Upper level ridge will continue to build over the Intermountain West through Tuesday. Enough low level moisture remains for patchy fog in the lower valleys forming early Tuesday morning.
Water Vapor Satellite trends place an upper level low over Southern Indiana this afternoon. A secondary cold front located from Northeast Missouri back through Southwest Missouri and into Oklahoma is expected to drop into the Lower Mississippi tonight.
These strong winds will then spread eastward into western and central Wisconsin early Tuesday morning as low pressure tracks into eastern Upper Michigan and rapidly intensifies/deepens. The strongest winds in Wisconsin will be confined to open areas and ridge top locations. This band of showers is expected to increase in coverage and intensify slightly across portions of western and central Wisconsin as the low deepens. The low then retrogrades west as a trough digs into the Upper Mississippi River Valley. It will be rather chilly on Tuesday too with highs only making it into the lower to mid 40s. Winds will subside Tuesday evening as the low heads east into Ontario.
A lull in winds in the 06z-10z beginning period of TAF will quickly rise at most airports during the 11z- 15z period as a cold front passes. /issued 404 PM CDT Mon Oct 23 2017/ A cooler dry day across the forecast area as high pressure begins to work into the region. Drier and cooler air behind the cold front will continue to filter into the region. You will definitely be able to feel the difference in temperatures Tuesday night as temperatures should drop into the lower 40s and maybe into the upper 30s across the northern portions of the forecast area.
A longwave trough extending from the Rockies to the east coast will continue to dig southward over the region through Tuesday afternoon. A secondary cold front approaching from the northwest will cross the Mississippi River this evening, and accelerate toward the northern Gulf coast after midnight.
/issued 306 PM CDT Mon Oct 23 2017/ A cold front is currently pushing its way through the FA and stretches along a line from Plains to O'Donnell. Wind direction will be affected very little as a pre-frontal trough has already shifted the winds to a more northerly direction. Continues northerly winds and slight (not strong by any means) CAA will help keep tomorrow roughly 10 degrees cooler than today.
Cold front has moved east of the mountains with cooling and drying of air mass beginning. Chattanooga Airport, TN 48 63 40 57 / 10 10 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 47 62 39 53 / 20 10 10 0 Oak Ridge, TN 48 63 39 52 / 20 10 10 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 45 61 36 51 / 30 10 10 10.
/Issued 255 PM CDT Mon Oct 23 2017/ A northwest flow aloft will bring another short wave trough southeast through the central plains tonight. This will help to drive through another cold front across the Panhandles.
656 PM CDT Mon Oct 23 2017 A very powerful storm system will develop over the next 36 hours across the Great Lakes region as a broad upper level trough with a textbook PV signature merges with a cutoff low over the Tennessee River Valley. Winds will quickly subside early Tuesday evening as surface ridging briefly moves in.
Temperatures cool slightly as offshore flow and the high pressure aloft weakens by midweek, yet temperatures look to remain above seasonal averages through late week. A strong ridge of high pressure building in from the south and west has resulted very warm to hot conditions across the region. The heat will result in concerns for our more heat sensitive populations such as the elderly, young and homeless with heat risk levels reaching into the low to moderate category, especially across the Central Coast. By midweek, a slight cooling trend is likely as the mid/upper level ridge retreats back out over the Pacific in response to trough digging into the Great Basin and Central Plains.
Overall most of the coming 6-8 days the region will be in a mean trough thus cooler weather will be the norm for awhile.
A very powerful storm system will develop over the next 36 hours across the Great Lakes region as a broad upper level trough with a textbook PV signature merges with a cutoff low over the Tennessee River Valley. Winds will quickly subside early Tuesday evening as surface ridging briefly moves in.
A strong dry cold front will move through tmrw mrng between 14 to 16z.
Showers and thunderstorms have shifted east into the coastal waters as cold front approaches se Ga/ne Fl from the west. cooler. SW winds will shift to the nw after midnight with cold frontal passage. Cold front will push south of the waters early Tuesday and sw winds will shift to the nw late tonight and early Tuesday.
Our next cold front will be moving through overnight with high pressure bridging into the region returning the West and Northwest winds now in place of generally 5-12 knots, to an increasing or tightening pressure gradient, producing strong and gusty Northwest winds of 15-25 knots with higher gusts of 30-35 knots after 24/14Z through the late afternoon on Tuesday. /issued 913 PM CDT Mon Oct 23 2017/ Cold front near I-30 poised to continue movg into region tonight.
Mid/upper level low pressure is currently diving southeastward over south central Canada and the upper Midwest. The lowest relative humidity values have remained above 20 percent, but low enough to cause very high fire danger this afternoon. There is not much change in the overall pattern as the mid/upper low digs over the Midwest, which means that wind speeds will be similar for tomorrow.
Low temperatures will be noticeably cooler Tuesday morning as compared to this morning with 40s in the north and 50s in central Georgia. A secondary cold front will push through the area Tuesday morning, bringing breezy conditions and reinforcing cool air. High pressure will build across the area for the remainder of Tuesday into Tuesday night. Temperatures in the northeast mountains are expected to dip into the lower to middle 30s overnight Tuesday.
Occluded front will pass over later this evening with the upper low passing very close to the mid state tomorrow.
823 PM EDT Mon Oct 23 2017 Ample moisture (PW's near 2 inches) combined with enhanced lift and low level convergence ahead of the first cold front of the season supported areas of showers and isolated thunderstorms over the forecast area during the afternoon with 88D returns still showing a good deal of showers and isolated storms continuing to move across the region this evening, with some very heavy rainfall amounts being observed over Pinellas county.
752 PM EDT Mon Oct 23 2017 Aviation Low pressure moving north across Lower Michigan will continue to bring heavy rain with some flooding expected through Tuesday. The low will deepen on Tuesday and winds will be ramping up with some strong wind gusts Tuesday and Tuesday night. The other issue we will have to deal with high winds on Tuesday as the low rapidly deepens across northern Lower Michigan. The winds will subside after midnight as the low pulls away.
1042 PM EDT Mon Oct 23 2017 A cold front will move east across the Carolinas tonight. A dry cold front will move across our region Tuesday night. Cool high pressure will build into the region during the mid and late portion of the work week. A cold front across the NC Foothills late this evening will push east overnight and approach the coastal region toward daybreak. Recent GOES-16 satellite imagery shows fairly rapid clearing behind the convection, closely in line with the 850 mb trough axis. Otherwise, cool advection will allow temperatures to fall into the lower 50s in the Triad with warmer lows, only in the lower 60s across the Coastal Plain. Highs will be cooler, 60s NW to 70s SE.
An upper level ridge will continue to build over the Pacific Northwest tonight. This ridge will then persist over the area Tuesday. This ridge will cause skies across the area to become clear, while increasing subsidence over the region. Afternoon temperatures will range from the lower 50s to lower 60s--about 3 to 7 degrees above seasonal average. Overnight lows will be in the mid 20s to mid 30s in the mountains and and in the mid 30s to lower 40s in the lower elevations. Patchy fog is common during late October when the forecast area is under a high pressure ridge, so overnight fog is possible but too early to pinpoint exact locations.
With 40 knots at the top of the mixed layer across our eastern zones tonight, that will likely be enough to agitate the winds into advisory criteria, especially noting the higher terrain areas in southwest MN and northwest IA which lend to increased winds anyway. At any rate it will still be windy for our western zones as the upper trough is showing a PV surge at the 1.
/issued 612 PM CDT Mon Oct 23 2017/ /00Z TAFS/ A weak cold front will continue to move through the area early this evening, resulting in a wind shift to the north. /issued 347 PM CDT Mon Oct 23 2017/ (Tonight and Tuesday) A dry cold front will move through all of West Central Texas through this evening. Ideal radiational cooling conditions will allow for temperatures to fall into the lower 40s and possibly even the upper 30s in lower lying areas.
508 PM MDT Mon Oct 23 2017 Upper level analysis shows a trough over the eastern CONUS and a ridge over the west. The upper trough and jet will shift eastward on Tuesday, as upper ridging spreads over the central CONUS.
Only weather feature of note will be a surface wind shift from the current south/VRB wind to a stronger 10 knot north wind 05-07Z overnight with the passage of a weak cold front. North winds will increase in the late morning Tuesday through the afternoon with 10-15 knots sustained and gusts in the low 20 knot range. The primary concern for the short term period is the passage of a weak cold front overnight tonight and its effects on fire weather potential for the CWA.
A cold front will move through southeast Texas and southern Louisiana tmrw mrng just aftr sr around 14Z to 16Z. A strong dry cold front will move through tmrw mrng between 14 to 16z.
850mb temperatures a degree or two cooler compared to Monday so will aim for highs in the upper 50s to low 60s which is normal for this time of year.
811 PM EDT Sat Nov 4 2017 A warm front across the Tennessee valley will lift north, and move north of the forecast area Sunday morning. A strong cold front will move across the area Sunday night kicking off thunderstorms. Warm front just into SRN KY. Surge of moisture overnight combined with the warm front will produce showers after midnight tonight. but shear increases significantly as the 850mb winds increase to 55 kt by 00Z ahead of the cold front. GFS and ECMWF in good agreement moving the cold front into NW OH by 00z.
650 PM CDT Sat Nov 4 2017 The warm front has moved into Missouri today.
403 PM PDT Sat Nov 4 2017 A storm system will continue to move through the region overnight producing some rain across our area, along with accumulations of snow in the higher elevations of the Sierra Nevada.
9pm Update: Fair skies continue to allow temperatures to drop across the region until the higher clouds move in after midnight. Proton Previous Discussion: A small area of high pressure embedded in the larger zonal pattern will keep conditions dry trough much of morning tomorrow.
935 PM CDT Sat Nov 4 2017 Warm front continues to lift slowly north across northeast Oklahoma this evening.
The best chance of any precipitation will be in the high southern Sierra of Inyo County this weekend. The incoming 00z KVEF sounding shows a ridgetop inversion for portions of the Spring Mountains with weakly negative shear above.
Went more optimistic on fog and low CIGs than previous forecast as latest soundings show the lowest levels to be drier.
903 PM EDT Sat Nov 4 2017 A diffuse frontal boundary will move south of CSRA overnight as high pressure ridges in from the north.
A cold front will move through the area by late morning on Sunday which will switch the winds around to the north and northeast at around 15 knots.
653 PM CDT Sat Nov 4 2017 Plenty of mid level cloud cover continues to stream across the region this afternoon as most of the low level stratus from this morning has eroded. along with allowing temperatures to climb into the lower 50s the past hour or so. have a difficult time seeing a rapid fall off in temperatures overnight ahead of an approaching cold front. Despite this low potential. with a rapid erosion of any fog that does develop as the aforementioned cold front tracks south across the local area. so also added this low end probability to the forecast.
Proton Previous Discussion: A small area of high pressure embedded in the larger zonal pattern will keep conditions dry trough much of morning tomorrow.
1151 PM EDT Sat Nov 4 2017 A wedge front will move southward across the area overnight as high pressure ridges in from the north.
Narrow shower bands have developed in broadly cyclonic/ convergent flow offshore, west of the inverted trough axis which is nearing the longitude of the northern Bahamas. As the low level flow veers slightly overnight, some of this activity could approach the Space/Treasure Coasts, while slightly cooler shelf water temps offshore Volusia County may keep it at bay through sunrise.
Some fog may develop this evening at KBVO before a warm front moves north of the area and southerly winds develop overnight. A cold front will move through the northeast Oklahoma sites Sunday afternoon shifting the winds to the north and northwest. /Issued 217 PM CDT Sat Nov 4 2017/ Warm front quickly lifting north, just south of Interstate 44 this afternoon, extending into northwest Arkansas. South of the front temperatures have warmed into the lower to mid 80s. Cold front forecast to be near the Interstate 44 corridor around 21Z Sunday afternoon. High temperatures will again be in the lower to mid 80s along/south of front.
910 PM EDT Sat Nov 4 2017 A shower or two will be possible this evening and Sunday with the passage of a warm front.
A lower tropospheric trough with inflection from near the surface through 700 mb remains just northeast of the northwest Bahamas. the near- north direction across the Lower Keys.
Winds will stay up the rest of the day on Sunday as surface pressure gradient tightens in advance of the slow-moving MS/OH Valley cold front.
The high will move quickly offshore Atlantic Canada by Sunday, but a lingering in- situ damming regime will linger over central NC through early Mon, ahead of a cold front that will settle south through our region Mon night. Overnight temperatures in the low-mid 50s expected elsewhere. The forecast problem for Sunday will center around the erosion of the CAD wedge as the airmass will hang around despite the high pressure lifting off to the northeast.
Freezing level was just above 16,000 feet and the -20C level was at 25,300 feet.
729 PM EDT Sat Nov 4 2017 A shower or two will be possible this evening and Sunday with the passage of a warm front.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 62 75 61 75 / 20 10 10 40 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 61 76 61 73 / 10 10 10 50 Oak Ridge, TN 61 74 61 72 / 10 10 20 60 Tri Cities Airport, TN 56 74 54 70 / 10 10 10 60.
But light rain/showers closer to the cold front advancing into the area from the west will likely shift into north-central Wisconsin later tonight. Tonight and Sunday The latest RAP analysis and satellite/radar imagery show a cold front over the northern Plains and high pressure positioned over the east coast. Low level warm advection will continue across the region, ahead of a cold front that will move across western Wisconsin after midnight. Temps should not move very much, so not expecting any freezing drizzle. A couple of cold fronts will keep temps chilly along with brief periods of snow shower activity across the far north as winds turn northwest behind the cold fronts. Progs are attempting to focus the first period of lake effect snow showers Sunday night after the Sunday cold front.
The 5 pm surface analysis showed a ridge along the eastern U. coast, though this ridge was very weak across our forecast area. Vapor imagery and upper air data showed the weak short wave trough that moved through our region earlier today was centered over central FL, leaving our region on the subsidence (i. fair weather) side of this trough.
1038 PM EDT Sat Nov 4 2017 A wedge front will move southward across the area overnight as high pressure ridges in from the north.