Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
815 PM EDT Thu Jun 18 2020 23z sfc analysis shows general low pressure in place over eastern Kentucky beneath a nearly stuck closed low over the central Appalachians. The impetus for this precipitation will be an area of low pressure aloft, that continues to slowly spin its way northward up the Appalachian chain. A mid level ridge axis will be the key figure through the weekend, allowing for the only real decent chance of dry weather through the upcoming week.
Westerly winds continue to bring drier and cooler air into the region with a quiet evening and overnight in store for the area. The second is further northwest with the true push of colder air into the region, with temperatures over northwestern ND in the low 50s this afternoon. Later tonight, advection of cooler and drier air into the region, along with decreasing clouds, should allow lows to drop into the 40s and 50s. Temps on Friday will be even cooler than today, in the upper 60s to mid 70s even with plenty of sunshine.
924 PM EDT Thu Jun 18 2020 Periodic showers and thunderstorms, mainly during the afternoon and early evening, will be possible through the end of the week as an upper low wobbles slowly eastward. Stacked low pressure will continue slowly lift north and east across the region tonight with diurnally suported convection slowly waning.
An upper level ridge over the region will allow for warm and dry conditions to persist into Friday.
High pressure gradually returns to the region with a warming trend for the next several days.
845 PM CDT Thu Jun 18 2020 The center of the eastern CONUS upper low has moved into the OH Valley but it will remain quasi-stationary for another 36 hours or so. Eventually, the trough over the Prairie Provinces will shift east and kick it out over the weekend. We will see a few thin, high clouds overnight as the northerly flow on the backside of the eastern trough taps into the moisture from the convection in the Plains. Overnight lows will knocked down a couple of degrees across portions of west TN and north MS where temperatures are expected to dip into the lower 60s. A weak upper level ridge will remain in place over the region for the next couple of days.
An upper trough centered to our northwest continues to usher dry air across southeast Arizona. Then we begin the gradual ramp up in heat as strong ridging builds across the area.
May look at adding some additional pops in the overnight period as another lobe looks to rotate into our area around the western side of the upper low. This activity continues to be associated with the same upper level low that's been influencing our weather the past few days. Tonight into tomorrow, the low starts to lift and slowly exit to the NE and be over western PA as short wave ridging begins to build in from the west. While the upper low will be moving away, there's still 20 to 30% PoP along and east of I-65. Temperatures are warmer, reaching the middle to upper 80s tomorrow afternoon. Hot and mostly dry weather will start out the weekend as upper level ridging builds in from the west.
With diurnal heating, orographic influences, and proximity to back side of upper trough axis, not enough confidence to mention at CSV terminal, but certainly can not rule out in vcnty tstms developing 19/17Z-19/24Z.
515 PM EDT Thu Jun 18 2020 Periodic showers and thunderstorms, mainly during the afternoon and early evening, will be possible through the end of the week as an upper low wobbles slowly eastward. Stacked low pressure will continue slowly lift north and east across the region tonight with diurnally suported convection slowly waning.
Warming and drying as a ridge builds over the region. Cool northwest flow aloft turns west and a flat ridge builds over the region through tonight. Highs today pleasurably warmer than yesterday.
An upper low to the east will continue to slowly rotate and contribute to isolated showers overnight. With upper low continuing to rotate scattered showers into the area Friday.
Deep upper troughing will linger over the region into Saturday before the upper trough lifts farther away to the northeast.
Quiet conditions expected today for the most part as high pressure drifts across the CWA. A weak mid-level disturbance rotating around the main upper low across southern Canada will move into the western Dakotas later this afternoon and should trigger a few showers and thunderstorms. Cold front moves into central SD by the afternoon, with a ribbon of weak to moderate instability developing ahead of it.
Despite increasing instabilities this afternoon, deep shear remains very weak as 500mb ridge remains overhead.
245 AM CDT Fri Jun 19 2020 Showers/storms stretched from southwest WI across central IA early this morning, firing from the interplay of a cold front at the sfc and low level moisture transport/jet. The front will continue its very slow progress east/southeast, not having a lot of motivation with upper level ridge just off to the southeast. Wind shear also remains displaced west into the cooler air.
/Today through Saturday Night/ The axis of an upper ridge will move across the area today and should provide enough subsidence to keep rain chances low. Most locations should warm into the lower 90s today, which is very near or slightly above climatological norms. By tonight, the upper ridge will be east of the forecast area, while an upper trough digs into the Central Plains. The upper trough will help to nudge the frontal boundary closer to the region, which may be just closer enough to help bring showers and thunderstorms into Southeast Oklahoma and adjacent portions of Southwest Arkansas on Saturday.
342 AM EDT Fri Jun 19 2020 With the upper-level closed low now weakened and lingering in the Mid-Atlantic, and a weak upper-level ridge drifting across the Gulf states, the forecast area looks to have adequate amount of mid-level moisture, but limited convective development due to upper-level subsidence creating long and very skinny CAPE profiles in forecast soundings. Instability is stronger today but CAPE remains minimal above the freezing level reducing the chances for widespread thunderstorms, though isolated storm development could be possible. Tomorrow, rain chances will be reduced with the upper-level ridge moving toward the forecast area as highs go from the mid-80s today into a more seasonal upper-80s tomorrow.
310 AM CDT Fri Jun 19 2020 The upper low is now located over eastern OH this morning, with ridging to our west, across the lower and mid MS valley. The upper system will morph into a more open wave pattern with the upper ridging moving over our area on Saturday.
A cold front extending from the Upper Peninsula of Michigan southwestward into the Kansas City area will push slowly eastward today. Showers and thunderstorms currently ongoing along the front across central/eastern Iowa will tend to dissipate as they track further eastward into a prevailing upper ridge axis over Illinois.
A broad upper level trough thats been near the area the last few days will finally begin to depart the region. At the mid levels of the atmosphere, dry air is still very prevalent, and will continue to filter in behind this trough. The higher rain chances will likely be across our inland counties closer to the better mid-level moisture near the center of the upper level trough. The warming trend continues today with high temperatures in the lower 90s.
Isolated convection still roaming my southwest early this evening around the cyclonic circulation and deep layer moisture associated with upper low over WV. Elsewhere, QPF will average less than 1 tenth of an inch in most locations overnight given the scattered nature of showers ahead of the approaching upper low. Min temps tonight under variable amounts of clouds early on, followed by some stratus forming late (especially in areas that received rain), will vary from the upper 50s across the mtns, to the mid 60s in the Lower Susq Valley. The upper low will continue to slowly weaken as it drifts NE across the Mid-Atlantic region. Slightly above average temperatures and daily afternoon/evening thunderstorms are expected under the influence of surface ridging and an upper trough over the eastern US.
316 AM EDT Fri Jun 19 2020 Almost a persistence forecast for most of the next 24 hrs as the weakening upper low remains parked near Wheeling, WV. Heights will try to rise in our western CWA as upper ridging tries to build NE in the mid-Mississippi Valley.
The low-level jet was nosing into this line, sustaining it and allowing it to track to the south. With that in mind, the southern Kansas convection is expected to continue to move southward through the morning, weakening as the low-level jet diurnally weakens. The other change, with the thought that there will be increased cloud cover through the day, is that temperatures look cooler.
1230 AM EDT Fri Jun 19 2020 Periodic showers and thunderstorms, mainly during the afternoon and early evening, will be possible through the end of the week as an upper low wobbles slowly eastward. Temperatures were nudged with latest obs/hi-res guidance, which resulted in minimally warmer overnight lows. A light shower or two remains on radar across the ridges of WV/MD, but activity has greatly waned over the last hour.
Much cooler temperatures prevail, with many areas falling into the upper 40s to lower 50s. An upper low, situated in west-central Manitoba, is providing the northern Plains with southwest flow aloft and drier air at the surface out of the west to northwest. Surface winds become southerly this afternoon, with slightly warmer air moving back into the region for Saturday. Heading into Saturday, an upper trough is expected to bring showers and thunderstorms back into the area during the overnight hours into Saturday morning.
Today through Saturday night A cold front has moved into the eastern Oklahoma and northern Texas Panhandles and will slowly move to the southeast as convection develops along and near the frontal boundary or may become quasi-stationary today over the northeast Texas Panhandle to the western and southwestern Texas Panhandle. Cloud cover and ongoing convection or additional convection developing this afternoon along with the cold air advection behind the front will hold highs today mainly in the 70s behind the cold front to lower to mid 80s ahead of the cold front. Lingering convection tonight into Saturday will move off to the east and south by late Saturday and Saturday night as subsidence prevails behind the exiting upper trough. The cold front will move east and south and should exit the Panhandles by late this evening or overnight tonight.
Near the surface, a weak cold front is pushing slowly southeast across south central Kansas into northern Oklahoma. The cold front is about to move through Dodge City right now. The front will stall out near the Highway 183 to 281 corridor. Otherwise, slightly cooler air will prevail across the FA. Good cracking the window weather (minus rainfall of course) to get in on some of that cooler air in the post- frontal airmass.
253 AM MDT Fri Jun 19 2020 The upper low over Manitoba is progged to swing to the northeast throughout today, albeit slowly.
256 AM EDT Fri Jun 19 2020 Scattered to isolated showers and thunderstorms will prevail through Saturday, as a broad upper trough remains slow to exit the area.
More storms are expected to develop later this morning and this afternoon as the airmass diurnally destabilizes and the mid-level trough currently over the Intermountain West moves east and approaches the Southern and Central Plains.
355 AM CDT Fri Jun 19 2020 WV imagery shows a broad upper trough meandering east through Canada, and extending down into the western CONUS. This, in turn, is suppressing the ridge over West Texas and Southeast New Mexico somewhat, and opening a window for dryline convection the next few days. Currently, sfc obs show the dryline has retreated up against the higher terrain. As the Canadian trough moves east into the MS valley after this weekend, the upper ridge is forecast to redevelop over the SW CONUS, leaving West Texas and Southeast New Mexico under NW flow aloft. Regarding temps, thicknesses come down a little today from yesterday as the trough axis passes through the region, but temps will stay well above normal.
Early this afternoon, a cold front was draped across western MN. With the blocking upper low still spinning across the Appalachians and stronger upper troughing/forcing remaining off to the north and west, only gradually lowering heights are expected into Friday. Temps will be cooler for most areas as the front progresses across the region with more cloud cover and showers/storms. There is some uncertainty on how this wave interacts with the the slowly progressing surface cold front. Severe storms are currently not expected as the more unstable air should remain to the south and east of the cold front.
A deep, closed low continues to churn across eastern Saskatchewan and western Manitoba, having moved very little since this time last night. Areas along and south of I-90 will see the highest probability of rainfall today.
A couple of light showers are spinning in from the S as the pesky upper low just to our west provides the direction and brings in the moisture. Will keep the highest PoPs in the central and SE counties. The upper low will continue to slowly fill/weaken as it drifts from the OH Valley over the Mid-Atlantic region. Slightly above average temperatures and daily afternoon/evening thunderstorms are expected under the influence of surface ridging and an upper trough over the eastern US.
High pressure building in behind this trough will help temps recover about 5 degrees above today's highs, reaching the upper 60s to mid 70s. Some diurnal showers forming on mountains are possible, buoyed by higher temps but held back some by the increasing ridging. Ridging will increase Saturday with temperatures slowly increasing through the weekend.
336 AM CDT Fri Jun 19 2020 Today and Tonight: The forecast area currently resides between troughing in the east, and ridging to the west. Over the next 24 hours, this trough will gradually slide east as ridging builds into the region.
High pressure is expected across the area into Saturday. Widely scattered convection remains possible over the eastern/southeastern zones into the evening hours, given a moderately unstable and uncapped air mass, and the proximity of an upper low spinning over western West Virginia. Model data suggest the upper low will begin to drift north and northeast on Friday. Otherwise, model data suggest upper ridging will build back over the area through Saturday.
Temperatures will correspondingly warm up with highs in the low to mid 80s and light winds.
329 AM EDT Fri Jun 19 2020 Scattered showers and thunderstorms, mainly during the afternoon and early evening, will be possible through the end of the week as an upper low slowly shifts eastward.
/issued 220 PM CDT Thu Jun 18 2020/ Several weak upper level disturbances will ride through and continue to weaken an upper level ridge that is residing over the forecast area through Saturday.
, a deep cut off low will continue to lift Nwrd into the OH valley ahead of an approaching upper level trough over the Nrn Plains. Between systems, a compact but amplified upper ridge will continue to weaken and flatten over the Srn CONUS as the aforementioned features progress Ewrd. At the surface, high pressure has become less pronounced over AR since it moved into the Carolinas one to two days ago. These lows are aligned along and just ahead of the approaching trough. The Nrn most low will continue to deepen and develop a more pronounced cold front which will then begin to move SE across the Nrn/C Plains later this afternoon. On Friday, the cold front will sag Swrd over portions of the Srn Plains, just NW of AR, aligned roughly along and parallel to the overlying H500 flow.
Ridging building in will bring drier and warmer conditions as well. A weak disturbance will flatten the ridge a bit Saturday and bring a low chance of showers, and will also keep temps in check and slightly cooler over the weekend.
Last minute adjustments were made to reflect diurnal convection this afternoon, enhanced by weak vorticity associated with the closed low centered over West Virginia. Although the 1 hour GFS guidance was consistent on afternoon convection, it took several hours for the high resolution CAM's (Convection allowing models) For tonight through Saturday, the narrow, westward tilted (with height) high amplitude ridge, will dominate the WFO PAH forecast area. The ridge erodes quickly Saturday night.
Upper trough over the Canadian Prairies will slowly track east while sending several frontal boundaries through the eastern Great Lakes.
1026 PM MDT Thu Jun 18 2020 The latest water vapor images show an upper low over Saskatchewan/Manitoba with another over the Southeast U. The cooler northwest flow has shunted the high surface dewpoint air to the southeast, with surface dewpoints mostly less than 50F.
Axis of higher moisture will remain from the western Gulf into the lower and middle Texas coast tonight into Friday morning with precipitable water values from 1. This will aid in lift by Friday morning along with the low level convergence zone along the coast.
Today will feature plenty of cloud cover and cooler temperatures than we have seen in a while. The front that ushered in today's cooler temperatures should remain draped from northeast Kansas, through extreme southeast Nebraska into central Iowa today.
Low level moisture begins to increase Friday night and sfc dew points look a bit higher so raised MinT values into the low/mid 70's. With the closed low over the eastern CONUS pushing northeastward, the prevailing ridge pattern over our area will become a more zonal one by Saturday. With dew points once again reaching the mid 70s and highs staying in the low to mid 90s, heat indicies will likely break into the triple digits by the end of the weekend.
Deese Persistent closed upper low continues its slow drift north into the central Appalachians/eastern Great Lakes region through the forecast period.
128 AM EDT Fri Jun 19 2020 Scattered to isolated showers and thunderstorms will prevail through Saturday, as a broad upper trough remains slow to exit the area.
Upper level trofiness over the state this morning will lift northeast today and be replaced by zonal flow over the area this weekend.
353 AM MDT Fri Jun 19 2020 Upper trough axis extended from the Northern High Plains to the Southern Great Basin. An inverted low pressure trough extended from the Four Corners to Central WY, with a band of rain showers and embedded thunder across western and northern CO into southwest NE. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will end from west to east this evening with the departing upper trough. A low amplitude upper ridge to the west will replace the upper trough Saturday, ushering in warmer temperatures and a drier more stable air mass. A trough of low pressure along the Front Range and upper level low pressure system moving east through the Central Rockies and High Plains will produce wetting rainfall across much of the area today. Warmer, breezy and drier conditions will return this weekend.
A couple of light showers over VA and MD continue to move up into PA as the pesky upper low just to our west provides the direction and brings in the moisture. Will keep the highest PoPs in the central and SE counties. The upper low will continue to slowly fill/weaken as it drifts from the OH Valley over the Mid-Atlantic region. Slightly above average temperatures and daily afternoon/evening thunderstorms are expected under the influence of surface ridging and an upper trough over the eastern US.
540 AM MDT Fri Jun 19 2020 Upper trough axis extended from the Northern High Plains to the Southern Great Basin. An inverted low pressure trough extended from the Four Corners to Central WY, with a band of rain showers and embedded thunder across western and northern CO into southwest NE. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will end from west to east this evening with the departing upper trough. A low amplitude upper ridge to the west will replace the upper trough Saturday, ushering in warmer temperatures and a drier more stable air mass. A trough of low pressure along the Front Range and upper level low pressure system moving east through the Central Rockies and High Plains will produce wetting rainfall across much of the area today. Warmer, breezy and drier conditions will return this weekend.
/issued 355 AM CDT Fri Jun 19 2020/ WV imagery shows a broad upper trough meandering east through Canada, and extending down into the western CONUS. This, in turn, is suppressing the ridge over West Texas and Southeast New Mexico somewhat, and opening a window for dryline convection the next few days. Currently, sfc obs show the dryline has retreated up against the higher terrain. As the Canadian trough moves east into the MS valley after this weekend, the upper ridge is forecast to redevelop over the SW CONUS, leaving West Texas and Southeast New Mexico under NW flow aloft. Regarding temps, thicknesses come down a little today from yesterday as the trough axis passes through the region, but temps will stay well above normal.
A high pressure ridge aloft continues to extend from Texas into the Great Lakes region early this morning. Ridge will continue to limit any convection today, and have not included mention of rain chances area-wide. Saturday looks to be a day of transition with the ridge advancing east of the region but expecting an overall dry day once again.
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS INTERIOR AND EAST COAST An mid to upper level low will be moving through the Florida Peninsula today from the Gulf of Mexico as a short wave will be moving from the Southern Gulf waters across South Florida.
The upper low is now located over eastern OH this morning, with ridging to our west, across the lower and mid MS valley. The upper system will morph into a more open wave pattern with the upper ridging moving over our area on Saturday.
339 AM MDT Fri Jun 19 2020 An upper low pattern looks to persist over the Canadian Prairies over the next few days. Upper ridging will build into the western U. for the middle of the week and expanding its reach into NE Montana with warmer temperatures and dry weather conditions returning.
In a repeat of yesterday, the primary focus of showers/storms will be along the ridges, with spotty coverage elsewhere.
748 AM EDT Fri Jun 19 2020 Scattered showers and thunderstorms, mainly during the afternoon and early evening, will be possible through the end of the week as an upper low slowly shifts eastward.
303 AM MDT Fri Jun 19 2020 An upper level trof will be moving across CO today and into this evening, bringing high chances for precip to much of the area. The best chances for any severe storms should be from the late afternoon through the evening hours as the storms ahead of the trof axis work their way east across the plains. Sat upper level ridging is expected over the state and dry and warmer weather is expected. Highs should be back in the 80s over the plains, with upper 70s to lower 80s in the high valleys.
includes mid-level troughing centered over the Great Lakes region, as well as another trough over the Northern Rockies. , mean ridging of high pressure continues today. The ridge axis will gradually shift eastward this weekend as the trough out west nudges into the Plains. Saturday, the ridge axis move into the Southeast U. Temperatures on Saturday may be a degree or two warmer, but will still be near normal.
404 AM CDT Fri Jun 19 2020 The last of the elevated convection overnight will eventually either slide east southeast of the CWA of remain in the confines of the far southern reaches of the CWA for the most part as the 850-700 mb cold front continues to sag farther southeast. Sky cover and cooler airmass should keep highs in the 70s.
A transitory ridge of high pressure will cause a momentary drying trend on Saturday as another disturbance will make its way through the Northern Rockies.
750 AM EDT Fri Jun 19 2020 Scattered to isolated showers and thunderstorms will prevail through Saturday, as a broad upper trough remains slow to exit the area.