Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Patchy fog and freezing fog have developed across the region, and could persist until around 15-17Z today. The main upper level trough will move overhead today with significant cloud cover continuing this morning. Due to the moist ground and light winds, will mention patchy fog, patchy freezing fog this morning across much of the region.
624 AM EST Wed Feb 12 2020 Stalled front will lift as a warm front today.
Light winds will pick up out of the north late behind an arctic cold front, with gusts in the 20 to 25 kt range possible at the NE OK sites. However with sfc temps remaining at or above freezing, accumulations likely to be limited to elevated surfaces.
Reinforcing high pressure tonight will allow for a gradual dry up and cooler temperatures to set in overnight.
Slightly better ridging and onshore flow Thursday night will help drive marine layer clouds back to the coast, likely extending into western portions of the inland valleys as well.
536 AM CST Wed Feb 12 2020 A rather mild start to the day expected across the area today with high temperatures warming into the low to mid 30s. Clouds increase in coverage throughout the day as an arctic front begins to plow southward and a southern stream low pressure system lifts northeast through the Ohio River Valley. Snow accumulations look rather light, with generally around/less than 1 inch expected west of the Mississippi River and 1-2 inches east of the river, with the highest totals being across southwest into central Wisconsin. The arctic front and low pressure system merging together will lead to an tightened pressure gradient across the area and will create blustery northwest winds with sustained values around 20-25 mph and gusts up to 35 mph.
547 AM EST Wed Feb 12 2020 A low pressure system will bring wintry mix followed by rain this evening and continue into Thursday. A wintry mix is expected at onset but with ground temperatures a few degrees above freezing south of I-80 no snow accumulation is expected. Rain will transition to snow showers as a cold front advances across Lake Erie late Thursday.
Upper level trough extended from Hudson Bay to southern SASK. Upper trough will rotate south and east through Thu. Arctic cold front preceded the upper trough and will move across the forecast area by sunrise this morning.
426 AM EST Wed Feb 12 2020 Another May-like morning along the Florida Keys with temperatures in the mid 70s and dew points in the lower 70s. Taking a step back to view synoptic conditions reveals deep mean layer ridging directly overhead the Keys with an expansive frontal zone and developing storm system stretching from the southern tip of Texas northeastward to the Mid-Atlantic.
711 AM EST Wed Feb 12 2020 A low pressure system will bring wintry mix followed by rain this evening and continue into Thursday. A wintry mix is expected at onset but with ground temperatures a few degrees above freezing south of I-80 no snow accumulation is expected. Rain will transition to snow showers as a cold front advances across Lake Erie late Thursday.
In addition, pockets of dense freezing fog have formed, further hindering travel this morning. We have updated the forecast to reflect the colder temperatures and also the areas of freezing fog roaming the Caprock. Overall spatial and temporal coverage of the dense fog doesn't seem too widespread, so we are forgoing an advisory, but we will continue to highlight the slick roadways and areas of freezing fog in a Special Weather Statement (SPS). Overall conditions will gradually improve by mid-late morning as temperatures rise to and above freezing. Cooler air filtering in behind the exiting system and easing winds overnight will drop overnight lows early tomorrow morning into the 20s.
The main upper level trough will move overhead today with significant cloud cover continuing this morning. Due to the moist ground and light winds, will mention patchy fog, patchy freezing fog this morning across much of the region.
357 AM CST Wed Feb 12 2020 Upper level trough extended from Hudson Bay to southern SASK. Upper trough will rotate south and east through Thu. Arctic cold front preceded the upper trough and will move across the forecast area by sunrise this morning.
601 AM CST Wed Feb 12 2020 Upper level trough extended from Hudson Bay to southern SASK. Upper trough will rotate south and east through Thu. Arctic cold front preceded the upper trough and will move across the forecast area by sunrise this morning.
Models and soundings at 10Z show saturated mid levels but some drier air in the low levels of the atmosphere (below 5,000 feet) that will need to be overcome before precip reaches the ground. The low levels are expected to saturate quickly this morning as the batch of precipitation continues to progress northward. Forecast soundings through the day show a temperature profile almost entirely below freezing, with the exception of near sfc temps. Early this morning, sfc temps are hovering on either size of the freezing mark, which will likely be the case much of the morning near and south of I-70.
BDL Frontal boundary will continue to push south of the CWA Thursday night as high pressure builds in from the north and west.
Some high clouds are beginning to spill into NorCal as the eastern Pacific ridge weakens. Current temperatures are considerably cooler compared to 24 hours ago where winds were still gusty yesterday. Temperatures will cool a bit the next few days as high pressure weakens, but will still remain above average with dry weather continuing.
However with sfc temps remaining at or above freezing, accumulations likely to be limited to elevated surfaces.
Plus we'll begin to see more widespread shower activity as an area of low pressure approaches, plus the old frontal boundary to our south lifts back nwd. Fog is occurring on either side of the boundary, however with the higher dewpoints over the coastal waters visibilities are down to around 1/4 of a mile. An area of low pressure is over the gulf waters southeast of Corpus Christi. This morning the low will move northeast toward the upper Texas coast while the frontal boundary lifts north. This will likely spread the dense sea fog into the coastal areas and pull in the higher dewpoints. The low is expected to travel from around Houston across the East Texas Lakes this morning and into north central Louisiana by afternoon.
351 AM PST Wed Feb 12 2020 A high pressure ridge over the eastern Pacific will continue to provide dry weather and above normal temperatures through end of the week.
Fog is occurring on either side of the boundary, however with the higher dewpoints over the coastal waters visibilities are down to around 1/4 of a mile. An area of low pressure is over the gulf waters southeast of Corpus Christi. This morning the low will move northeast toward the upper Texas coast while the frontal boundary lifts north. This will likely spread the dense sea fog into the coastal areas and pull in the higher dewpoints. The low is expected to travel from around Houston across the East Texas Lakes this morning and into north central Louisiana by afternoon.
Expect MVFR to IFR conditions to prevail across the Rio Grande Valley this morning into the afternoon before drier air aloft moves across southwest Texas this afternoon as a 500mb trough moves eastward across west Texas.
300 AM MST Wed Feb 12 2020 Arctic cold front is currently moving south across the forecast area early this morning. Skies will clear during the day today from north to south as high pressure moves into the area. Upper ridge moves across Montana on Thursday with warmer temperatures especially in the west.
1237 PM EST Wed Feb 12 2020 A low pressure system will bring wintry mix to the region through tonight, with accumulating snow north of I-80. A change to rain/freezing rain is in the cards past midnight, with some minor ice accretion possible. Rain will transition to snow showers as a cold front advances across Lake Erie late Thursday.
Low pressure is lifting northeast out of the Southern Plains into the Great Lakes and eastward. While there is some melting going on now, road temps will likely fall sufficiently so that snow will stick, minimizing to some extent the amount of flash freezing that will occur but this is still a threat, again lending to the issuance of the winter weather advisory.
12Z upper air analysis shows an amplified pattern in the southern stream with deep trof easing eastward out of the Four Corners of the Desert Southwest with a downstream ridge axis over the FL Peninsula over the Bahamas. At the surface, a well defined warm front has surged northward deep into the southeast US while a strong cold front was draped over the Plains. There are indications in the high resolution convective allowing models of a weakening trend with eastward translation of convective line as best dynamics will be lifting quickly out to the northeast and environmental instability shrinks. Cold front makes passage Thursday morning with chances of showers tapering off in the wake of the front northwest of I-65. Much cooler Thursday night.
Upstream lows this morning were in the 25 to 35 below zero range, however temperatures will modify tonight as the high slides into North Dakota.
A strong arctic cold front over north central WI will push through the rest of the forecast area late this afternoon and evening. A very cold day is anticipated Thursday, with highs ranging from the single digits west to the lower teens near Lake Michigan. A sharp upper trof will pass through the region, and may produce scattered flurries through much of the day.
This evening, winds will turn out of the NW to N direction at 8-11 KT between 03Z and 09Z as a cold front moves down. As the upper trough moves across the area today, winds at the surface and aloft will become westerly, with drier air filtering in and cloud cover decreasing by this afternoon. Temperatures will be warmer today, with afternoon highs ranging from the lower 50s across the Big Country, to around 60 along the Interstate 10 corridor. A surface cold front will move south across the area late tonight, with cool temperatures continuing for Thursday. Expect mostly clear skies for the overnight period, with lows ranging from the upper 20s across the Big Country, to the lower 30s elsewhere.
Certainly cold enough aloft, and precip type was dependent on the temps in the lowest 1500 feet.
1024 AM EST Wed Feb 12 2020 Stalled front will lift as a warm front today.
1011 AM EST Wed Feb 12 2020 High pressure continues to ridge in from the east with continued southerly winds. Daytime high temps are expected to reach the low mid 80's which is very close to record highs for some locations.
Clouds will begin to clear out from west to east through the evening as high pressure builds but, for now, they are holding strong.
A trough of low pressure will come into the western U. WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO A high pressure system over the eastern Pacific will provide a quiet weather day for our Wednesday. Ensembles are in good agreement with the eastern portion of this high pressure system somewhat flattening out, giving somewhat higher heights.
TFJ Arctic cold front is currently moving south across the forecast area early this morning. Skies will clear during the day today from north to south as high pressure moves into the area. Upper ridge moves across Montana on Thursday with warmer temperatures especially in the west.
145 PM MST Wed Feb 12 2020 Upper level analysis shows a broad and deep trough covering the CONUS. An upper ridge is moving over the west coast. The cold front has pushed through the CWA, behind which winds of 25 to 35 mph, gusting over 50 mph, were observed this morning. As cold high pressure sinks into the region tonight, temperatures will continue to fall, with most places reaching the single digits and teens below zero. Beneath transient upper ridging on Thursday, the region will be sunny and cold, with highs in the 20s.
230 PM CST Wed Feb 12 2020 Precipitation cleared west Texas this morning as upper trough pushed east of the area, leaving mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies. On the heals of a mild day today, a cold front was nearly to Lubbock by mid-afternoon.
Current satellite reveals a large scale trough roughly overhead this afternoon, swinging eastward with a few lingering flurries ongoing across our eastern zones. Have thus gone with cooler consensus blends for highs Thursday.
Inland areas will reach the mid to upper 80s, while the Atlantic seabreeze will help to keep coastal areas in the low to mid 80s.
1042 AM EST Wed Feb 12 2020 A low pressure system will bring wintry mix to the region through tonight, with accumulating snow north of I-80. A change to rain/freezing rain is in the cards past midnight, with some minor ice accretion possible. Rain will transition to snow showers as a cold front advances across Lake Erie late Thursday.
(Today and tonight) Main upper low now lifting northeast toward the area this morning with widespread precip, mainly light precip. It remains a bit tricky in these area with respect to precip types as a few models would say that snow will be main type, while others bring drier air in the mid levels during the morning hours, which results in more of a light drizzle or perhaps even freezing drizzle to occur. If this does in fact occur, appears that temps would be hovering right around the freezing mark, limiting overall impacts. This will occur as main upper low continues to lift out and we get another wave dropping southeast out of the central Rockies. An arctic cold front will spill southward tonight, bringing in much colder airmass into the area.
/issued 1011 AM EST Wed Feb 12 2020/ High pressure continues to ridge in from the east with continued southerly winds. Daytime high temps are expected to reach the low mid 80's which is very close to record highs for some locations.
Temperatures tonight/Thursday morning will drop to near freezing across the Hill Country around 40 degrees elsewhere as clear skies and mostly calm winds will allow for decent radiational cooling (although lingering moisture across Karnes/DeWitt/Lavaca will keep overnight lows in the mid 40s). With the trough axis finally coming through tonight, a drier air mass will be in place for Thursday with winds turning north northeasterly and becoming breezy by late Thursday morning. This will allow for cold air advection, and will help keep our high temperatures well below seasonal normals, with high ranging from the low 50s across the Hill County/Central Texas to low to mid 60s across the Rio Grande Plains. A weak cold front will also drop south tomorrow out of North Texas, but will likely dissipate before reaching the northern portions of South Central Texas.
850 AM PST Wed Feb 12 2020 Quiet weather expected today, with ridge building into the region. Clouds will increase a bit by late morning Thursday with the approach of a weak weather disturbance and cold front.
926 AM CST Wed Feb 12 2020 Low and very shallow stratus cloud decks in addition to patchy freezing fog has been observed across the Caprock and into the northeastern Rolling Plains. Patchy freezing fog will persist on the Caprock and into the northeastern Rolling Plains through noon CST the latest as insolation should mix out any remaining fog and thin veils of stratus clouds around that time. Roads and overpasses will remain hazardous to travel until temperatures can climb above freezing. Cooler air filtering in behind the exiting system and easing winds overnight will drop overnight lows early tomorrow morning into the 20s.
810 AM PST Wed Feb 12 2020 Quiet weather expected today, with ridge building into the region.
The back edge of the more widespread area of rain is approaching southeast Oklahoma, and once this occurs, the potential for lighter drizzle, as opposed to rain, will increase for a few hours before additional rainfall develops mid to late afternoon as the trough axis moves through. Light winds will pick up out of the north late behind an arctic cold front, with gusts in the 20 to 25 kt range possible at the NE OK sites. However with sfc temps remaining at or above freezing, accumulations likely to be limited to elevated surfaces.
Should dry up by the afternoon as high pressure briefly moves in.
The ridge of high pressure over the Western Atlantic waters will be weakening while moving further east into the Atlantic waters through late this week.
225 PM EST Wed Feb 12 2020 Upper ridging extends from western Cuba northeastward over the southern half of Florida for the next couple of days.
244 PM CST Wed Feb 12 2020 (Tonight and Thursday) This afternoon, skies are clearing out quickly in West Central Texas as an upper level trough axis is moving across West Texas, pushing moisture off to our east. Sunnier skies and westerly downsloping winds are allowing temperatures at 1 pm to be 5-15 degrees warmer than 24 hours ago. Tonight, a cold front will move through the region, bringing an extra push of cold air. Expect cooler highs only in the low to mid 40s in the Big Country, mid 40s to low 50s in the Concho Valley/Heartland, and low to mid 50s in the I-10 corridor.
1258 PM EST Wed Feb 12 2020 Stalled front will lift as a warm front today.
The southern portions of the mid-state still have the best chance as the slightly warmer air across northern Alabama where mid-upper 50s temperatures with low-mid 50s dewpoints are noted might creep in through the evening hours.
Conditions will trend cooler and cloudier for the rest of the week.
Upper level ridging will move from the west, warming temps throughout the day. Short periods of ridging and wind will separate periods of snow.
706 PM EST Wed Feb 12 2020 Latest RAP model has mid/upper level ridging. beginning to slide eastward later tonight and Thu as a long wave trough. Atlantic high pressure across FL to the Gulf of Mexico pulls away to the east as a cold front. accompanying the long wave trough. The approaching front and long wave trough will provide additional moisture and support for showers in the slight chance to chance range. Relaxed high pressure behind the front builds in for the weekend with winds veering and diminishing.
Then, southerly winds increase and veer to southwesterly as the weak cold front approaches the area and high pressure slides into the Atlantic. Light S/SE winds tonight, before winds increase and veer tomorrow morning as a cold front approaches. Southerly flow continues thanks to lingering high pressure. Southerly winds continue for most of the day, before veering to southwesterly ahead of an approaching cold front late Thursday late evening.
Meanwhile a shallow sfc cold front that extends from nw IA to western KS will move quickly southeast moving through our cwfa from 11pm-5am. Some residual freezing drizzle/light snow/flurries will be possible for a brief period behind the front before it all ends. There could be some freezing of moisture to the roads with the quick temperature drop late tonight. Temperatures will not break above freezing with only perhaps the exception of the MO/AR border region in our far southeast cwfa.
Ceilings and visibilities will increase somewhat as strong cold front passes overnight with all ceilings likely to erode Thursday morning. The rain may mix with or change to light snow near the Kansas border before it ends this evening, but little or no impacts are expected with temperatures remaining above freezing. Temperatures Thursday afternoon will then struggle to climb to near freezing in some places.
1005 mb low pressure sits over the eastern parts of the Memphis metro with a cold front extending south, into NW MS, and a warm front extending to the east along the TN/MS line. Meanwhile a mid-level trough over the southern plains is pushing east providing plenty of deep layer shear. Surface dewpoints in the lower 60s are beginning to move into Monroe County though better instability is still further south, in central and southern MS.
For Thursday, high pressure prevails with temperatures only climbing into the single digits below zero.
849 PM EST Wed Feb 12 2020 The ridge in the western Atlantic remains the dominant feature influencing sensible weather over the Florida Keys and coastal waters. The lower tropospheric ridge axis is a little farther south than this time yesterday, cutting through central Florida, with the upper portion of the ridge parked over the Bahamas and south Florida. The lower boundary layer has also dried some since yesterday evening. With the ridge axis a little closer, winds have picked up a few knots today, with a solid 15 to 20 knots of southeast flow in the Straits.
In the area near Interstate 70, a mixture of sleet, freezing rain and snow will be possible with rain changing to snow and sleet late to the south. Expect the low center to continue to move to the northeast as the upper trough tracks to the east. As the cold air filters in, high pressure moves in and Thursday night is the coldest night.
Light snow will develop early this evening and last much of the night as an upper trough approaches from the west. Polar high pressure will then approach Thu nt with temps plummeting to well below zero for inland locations.
Milder air begins to move back into the area Thursday as an upper ridge and next system moves in.
Satellite imagery shows an area of condensed blowing snow funneling south from the Red River Valley of ND to the Buffalo Ridge in southwest MN, which is the area where reduced visibilities may linger the longest into the evening.
850mb and 925mb analysis shows temps below freezing across portions of NE OK and NW AR. Surface temperatures across the area continue to be well above freezing at this time.
The arctic front moving through Nebraska today could possibly drive stable air at the lower levels into swrn Nebraska shutting off the seeder-feeder snow growth process.
The rain may mix with or change to light snow near the Kansas border before it ends this evening, but little or no impacts are expected with temperatures remaining above freezing. Temperatures Thursday afternoon will then struggle to climb to near freezing in some places.
The low will move northeast through KY tonight. It is questionable whether a warm front will make it through any of our area, allowing a true emergence into the warm sector. It looks more likely that after the low passes by it will send an occluded front through, rather than a cold front. In fact, as the top of the low level mixed layer reaches near -10C during the night, it looks like there will still be enough moisture to support some flurries or snow showers, but they should not amount to much.
On Thursday night, a mid-level trough pushing over the Pacific Northwest will drive a transitory ridge over, then east of the area.
554 PM CST Wed Feb 12 2020 Arctic high pressure centered over southern Saskatchewan will settle over western and central North Dakota, making for a cold winter's night. Upstream lows this morning were in the 25 to 35 below zero range, however temperatures will modify tonight as the high slides into North Dakota.
With temperatures hovering within a couple degrees of freezing, precipitation has continued as snow through the afternoon, with no reports of rain in our area thus far. The back edge of the steadier snow, associated with the 700 mb trough axis, is currently near Manhattan and gradually pushing eastward. Upper trough continues to exit east across the Great Lakes region while the Arctic high centers from Iowa into Missouri.
Winds look to diminish during the evening as strong high pressure drops in from the north.
Otherwise, expect mostly cloudy skies on Thu, with highs ranging from the mid 20s to mid 30s, coldest in northeast portions of the area -- in closer vicinity to Arctic high pressure progressing ESE from the Dakotas toward the Upper MS River Valley.
/issued 230 PM CST Wed Feb 12 2020/ Precipitation cleared west Texas this morning as upper trough pushed east of the area, leaving mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies. On the heals of a mild day today, a cold front was nearly to Lubbock by mid-afternoon.
A trough of low pressure will come into the western U.