Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
(Today and tonight) Strong south winds will continue to strengthen during the day today as pressure falls occur across the High Plains as a large scale trough moves toward the area from the west. Will also go ahead and upgrade the High Wind Watch to a warning. Thought about adding a few counties to the High Wind Warning, but cloud cover and deeper mixing may remain confined to the far northwest. As stronger piece of energy moves through the base of the trough and into the central Plains the dryline begins to shift east toward the area.
An upper ridge will build over the southeast through Saturday. At the surface, high pressure will remain along the mid-Atlantic coast through the end of the week. Deep layer subsidence and drying underneath the building ridge will result in dry conditions over our forecast area through Saturday. The ridging aloft, combined with the increasing low level moisture, will keep temperatures near to slightly above normal through the near term period. High temperatures will continue to increase under the building upper ridge with low to mid 80s in most inland areas.
333 AM EDT Fri Apr 22 2022 Continued southerly to southeasterly low level fetch will persist under an amplified upper ridge, which will allow for an unseasonably warm and mostly clear end to the work week and start to the weekend. Max temps today and Saturday above climo norms generally in the low to mid 80s and overnight min temps near normal generally in the low to mid 50s this morning and a bit warmer for Saturday morning with much of the area in the mid 50s. Baker It will be warm to close out the weekend and start the new work week as persistent upper ridging remains situated across the region.
1113 PM EDT Thu Apr 21 2022 High pressure will build southeast into the region tonight and Friday. A warm front will lift through the area late Friday night and Saturday morning, bringing some showers to mainly the western and northern mountains, followed by a significant warmup the second half of the weekend.
400 AM EDT Fri Apr 22 2022 A secondary cold front and upper trough will cross the region later today.
Long wave ridging remains entrenched over the eastern CONUS, with tightened geopotential/pressure gradient being maintained within the boundary layer. Maximum temperatures will generally in the lower 80s along the coasts, and mid/upper 80s over most of the interior, with little overall change between Friday and Saturday.
/issued 236 PM CDT Thu Apr 21 2022/ SHORT TERM (Now through Friday Night): Modest ridging aloft will give way to a sharp, progressive short wave trough digging into the Great Basin on Friday. Lee low pressure will deepen and a northern Plains storm system will develop late Friday. Thus, the pressure gradient between Gulf high pressure and Plains lower pressure will remain tight, and breezy, gusty southeast winds will continue through the short term. The dryline will remain a focus for convection over West Texas, but more so farther north where a cold frontal boundary will eventually overtake it on Saturday.
Under clear skies, we will effectively radiate and lows will dip into the lower 60s F and upper 50s F. For Friday, the ridge maintains control and we should see another fair and warm day with highs again in the middle 80s F.
Discussion: This morning a few strong thunderstorms have developed over northwestern Missouri and northeastern Kansas as a low level jet has overriding a warm front which is lifting north across the area. This morning the warm front will continue to lift north across the forecast area and the LLJ with also nose further north and east pushing convection north of the forecast area. Tonight, storms will develop across western Kansas as a cold front associated with a upper level trough that will move from the Great Basin into the Dakotas overtakes a dryline. Tomorrow night the cold front will move through the forecast, hi-res show a fine line of storms approaching the area around midnight.
S/W ridge currently over the region will get forced east as energy comes off the Pacific and into the southwest CONUS. This is where the cap is expected to be the weakest due to warmer temps and more LLM. Most of the CAM solutions suggest isolated convection firing over western SD/NE and then spreading northeast overnight Friday within the low to mid level WAA regime (LLJ). That said the higher end deep layer shear is confined to the western part of the state Friday night. Small differences noted in the placement of the warm front as well. Dry slot looks to work in during the day Saturday, with likely a lack of areal coverage of showers over eastern areas, while wrap around precip may be affecting the far western CWA, depending on the exact track of the low.
Forecast Discussion: At 19Z, a warm front was moving northward into the southern portion of the CWA. Into the late evening hours, a LLJ will begin to increase and will combine with continued isentropic ascent as the warm front lifts toward the Nebraska border. Further thunderstorm development could occur late Saturday along a cold front in central Kansas. Cooler and drier weather is anticipated for the end of the weekend and start of the next workweek.
Broad low pressure extending across the area in a general southwest flow will continue to bring showers to the forecast area into Friday.
157 AM EDT Fri Apr 22 2022 A cold front will move through toward daybreak Friday. High pressure will then build in from the west Friday into Friday night, then gradually weaken over the weekend.
1011 PM CDT Thu Apr 21 2022 Upper ridging will build across the area for the next few days with mostly clear skies and warm weather. /issued 313 PM CDT Thu Apr 21 2022/ The trough over the Great Lakes is pulling off to the east while a second, deeper trough is taking shape over the West Coast.
539 AM MDT Fri Apr 22 2022 Most recent upper air analysis shows the upper low currently over CA, with southwest flow over the upper plains, ridge sliding over the midwest. At the surface, low pressure sits the WY/SD/MT border, with a warm front stretching over southwestern SD. As temperatures cool off and the low slides further east, rain will transition to snow overnight.
High impact winter storm set to bring significant precipitation to the region with blizzard conditions expected for eastern Strengthening low pressure will lift northeast into North Dakota this weekend, with precipitation spreading across the Northern High Plains along the way. Temperatures will be warm enough for rain and a wintry mix initially which may even include some freezing rain, but as the storm tracks to the NE and colder air wraps around it from the north, more places will transition to snow.
Meanwhile, a large upper trough that extends from our area to the west coast will lead to isolated morning showers that will expand in coverage this afternoon - promoted by daytime heating. the bulk of the showers will develop over the higher terrain.
656 AM EDT Fri Apr 22 2022 A ridge of high pressure sliding east across the region today will bring plenty of morning sun followed by increasing clouds this afternoon and tonight. A warm front will lift through the area late tonight and Saturday morning, bringing some showers to mainly the western and northern mountains.
A broad upper level trough and embedded upper level low continues to sweep through the Golden State overnight. That being said, the freezing level is low enough that any developed cell could produce small hail. Given the low freezing level some mix/wintry precip will be possible over the higher peaks of the Santa Lucia Range.
Upper high now positioned over the deep south with ridging extending eastward across the Carolinas. Southerly surface winds and 850 mb temps approaching 13C will allow for our afternoon temps to warm into the lower to mid 80s.
Southwesterly flow aloft will prevail across the Panhandles today through this evening ahead of a closed upper low tracking east across the Great Basin region and across the central U. The closed upper low is expected to lift north and east into the northern Plains states by 12Z Saturday.
514 AM EDT Fri Apr 22 2022 A ridge of high pressure sliding east across the region today will bring plenty of morning sun followed by increasing clouds this afternoon and tonight. A warm front will lift through the area late tonight and Saturday morning, bringing some showers to mainly the western and northern mountains.
305 AM MDT Fri Apr 22 2022 Most recent upper air analysis shows the upper low currently over CA, with southwest flow over the upper plains, ridge sliding over the midwest. At the surface, low pressure sits the WY/SD/MT border, with a warm front stretching over southwestern SD. As temperatures cool off and the low slides further east, rain will transition to snow overnight.
405 AM CDT Fri Apr 22 2022 A 588dm mid-level ridge will build north across the region and much of the Southeast United States through the weekend. /28/ Deep layer ridging is expected to dominate the weekend as a low level high pressure migrates over the Carolinas' coast. This will allow for dry conditions and warm temperatures through the weekend, with highs topping out in the middle 80s and lows predominantly in the lower to middle 60s. Additionally, a strong pressure gradient across the Lower Mississippi Valley region are expected to increase gradient winds throughout the weekend.
/issued 457 AM CDT Fri Apr 22 2022/ Warm and humid mid-spring weather to prevail across the Midsouth through the weekend, under a 587dm 500mb height ridge centered over AL/GA.
457 AM CDT Fri Apr 22 2022 Warm and humid mid-spring weather to prevail across the Midsouth through the weekend, under a 587dm 500mb height ridge centered over AL/GA.
/28/ A 588dm mid-level ridge will build north across the region and much of the Southeast United States through the weekend. /28/ Deep layer ridging is expected to dominate the weekend as a low level high pressure migrates over the Carolinas' coast. This will allow for dry conditions and warm temperatures through the weekend, with highs topping out in the middle 80s and lows predominantly in the lower to middle 60s. Additionally, a strong pressure gradient across the Lower Mississippi Valley region are expected to increase gradient winds throughout the weekend.
The reinforcing ridge across the Mid-Atlantic will push drier low-level air over FL this afternoon and evening, which should diminish the marine stratocu clouds.
544 AM CDT Fri Apr 22 2022 Breezy and warmer conditions will be on tap across central Illinois today as a warm front lifts northward through the region. Only isolated showers are noted across the KILX CWA presently: however, as warm front pushes through the region widely scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop as the morning progresses. Low temperatures will remain in the lower to middle 60s. As the pressure gradient tightens ahead of an approaching cold front, southerly winds will gust up to 35-40mph. With partly to mostly sunny skies anticipated, resulting afternoon highs will soar into the lower 80s. A line of convection will develop along the cold front from western Iowa into eastern Kansas Saturday afternoon, then will shift eastward and weaken considerably as it spills into west- central Illinois Saturday night.
Key Messages: - Very strong south winds with gusts of 50-60mph today and tonight - Chance for thunderstorms tonight into early Saturday - Additional storm chances Saturday with severe storms possible Early this morning, an upper trough is moving inland across the western CONUS with southwest flow present across the Plains. The warm front slowed its progression last evening, but has been shunted north of the forecast area by the 50kt LLJ. The low-level wind field enhances after sunset tonight with the HREF showing a 60-70kt 850mb LLJ over central Kansas. In regards to the storm potential late tonight into Saturday morning, a line of storms that develop along a cold front across western Kansas will progress eastward overnight, but waning instability may lead to this line weakening before it reaching north central Kansas.
652 AM CDT Fri Apr 22 2022 (Today and tonight) Strong south winds will continue to strengthen during the day today as pressure falls occur across the High Plains as a large scale trough moves toward the area from the west. Will also go ahead and upgrade the High Wind Watch to a warning. Thought about adding a few counties to the High Wind Warning, but cloud cover and deeper mixing may remain confined to the far northwest. As stronger piece of energy moves through the base of the trough and into the central Plains the dryline begins to shift east toward the area.
744 AM EDT Fri Apr 22 2022 Upper level ridging stretches from the Rio Grande Valley to the southeast US. placing much of FL on the south side of the ridge axis with northeasterly flow aloft. High pressure centered north of the terminals dominates with ENE to E winds and gusts of 19-25KT in the afternoon. High pressure on the Mid-Atlantic coast slides out over the Atlantic during the weekend while maintaining a tight pressure gradient across the waters.
850 AM EDT Fri Apr 22 2022 High pressure builds in from the west into tonight, remaining in place over the weekend.
903 AM EDT Fri Apr 22 2022 A secondary cold front and upper trough will cross the region later today.
657 AM EDT Fri Apr 22 2022 A secondary cold front and upper trough will cross the region later today.
Otherwise, ridging surface and aloft will dominate today helping temperatures top out above normal in the mid 80s at most locations. /22/ Prior discussion below: Today and tonight: A 588dm mid-level ridge will build north across the region and much of the Southeast United States through the weekend.
Warmer and dry conditions are expected for the weekend.
The central part of the trough will move over Nevada this morning with the back end of the trough still over the region. Saturday a ridge of high pressure will start building over the region and will warm temperatures back to near seasonal normals with mid 70s expected for the valley and mainly 50s in the mountains.
1041 AM EDT Fri Apr 22 2022 Milder and mostly sunny skies are on the docket for today as high pressure slides overhead. Tonight, a warm front will push up through the Ohio River Valley, bringing the chance of light rain showers ahead of the front for tonight and Saturday morning.
A large, nearly stationary, upper level ridge over the southeast quarter of the country will help keep conditions rainfree for the next couple of days. In the lower levels, southerly breezes between high pressure off to our east and low pressure off to the west will bring unseasonably warm temperatures to the four state region. High temperatures both today and Saturday are expected to make it into the lower 80s over most of the region.
GC Chattanooga Airport, TN 84 58 84 60 83 / 0 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 83 57 85 59 83 / 0 0 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 83 57 85 58 82 / 0 0 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 80 55 83 55 83 / 10 0 10 0 0.
Weak upper level trough moving east of the area this morning. Upper level ridge tonight into Saturday moving east Saturday night.
440 AM CDT Fri Apr 22 2022 Key Messages: - Very strong south winds with gusts of 50-60mph today and tonight - Chance for thunderstorms tonight into early Saturday - Additional storm chances Saturday with severe storms possible Early this morning, an upper trough is moving inland across the western CONUS with southwest flow present across the Plains. The warm front slowed its progression last evening, but has been shunted north of the forecast area by the 50kt LLJ. The low-level wind field enhances after sunset tonight with the HREF showing a 60-70kt 850mb LLJ over central Kansas. In regards to the storm potential late tonight into Saturday morning, a line of storms that develop along a cold front across western Kansas will progress eastward overnight, but waning instability may lead to this line weakening before it reaching north central Kansas.
/Issued 333 AM EDT Fri Apr 22 2022/ Continued southerly to southeasterly low level fetch will persist under an amplified upper ridge, which will allow for an unseasonably warm and mostly clear end to the work week and start to the weekend. Max temps today and Saturday above climo norms generally in the low to mid 80s and overnight min temps near normal generally in the low to mid 50s this morning and a bit warmer for Saturday morning with much of the area in the mid 50s. Baker It will be warm to close out the weekend and start the new work week as persistent upper ridging remains situated across the region.
The good news is dew points are above freezing so surface temperatures have remained above freezing and the roads simply look wet. The main story is low pressure over the Yellowstone region.
Much warmer temperatures and dry conditions are expected Saturday, with temperatures in the upper 70s expected across southern Wisconsin. Winds will shift to southerly and be gusty on Saturday ahead of an approaching low pressure system.
Highs this afternoon look to climb mainly into the lower 80s for most spots, under mostly sunny skies. The ridge will slowly migrate eastward across the Tennessee Valley over the weekend and will keep any storm tracks well to the north and west of the area.
Thereafter look for partial clearing into this evening with temperatures dropping into in 40s for most areas, with some upper 30s in the normally cooler North Bay and southern Monterey County Valleys.
Surface analysis this afternoon places a 1030 mb ridge of high pressure over the Southeast United States and the Tennessee Valley. Southerly winds on the back side of high pressure is bringing warm and moist air back up into the Lower Mississippi Valley this afternoon. Surface and upper level ridging over the Tennessee Valley and Southeast United States will continue to bring rain free weather to the Mid-South through Saturday night. Highs on Saturday are expected to be in the lower to middle 80s.
Surface analysis late this morning places a 1031 mb ridge of high pressure over portions of the Tennessee Valley and Southeast United States. This is resulting in rain free weather across the Lower Mississippi Valley today. Temperatures will warm into the lower 80s this afternoon. /issued 457 AM CDT Fri Apr 22 2022/ Warm and humid mid-spring weather to prevail across the Midsouth through the weekend, under a 587dm 500mb height ridge centered over AL/GA.
An upper level ridge of high pressure will continue across our region through Saturday afternoon. Low level ridging will also extend from the east coast and into our area through the weekend as well, maintaining an east to southeasterly low level flow. High temperatures on Saturday are forecast to range in the lower to mid 80s along and north of the Interstate 10 corridor and in the upper 70s to around 80 degrees along the immediate coast and the beaches.
1132 AM CDT Fri Apr 22 2022 The latest WV imagery and UA analysis shows dry air aloft associated with a building ridge acrs the western Gulf coast into the SE states. In the lower levels, a broad area of high pres is situated acrs the SE US, centered acrs the Blue Ridge Mountains. Dry air and capping associated with the ridge aloft will keep conditions dry today, with temperatures expected to warm into the middle 80s acrs much of the area under partly to mostly sunny skies.
For this afternoon, a Yellowstone low pressure system is causing some wrap around moisture and light snow in southern Lemhi county, Idaho and some lingering snow showers tonight around Butte, MT. Tomorrow a ridge starts to build in over the region, but it will be competing against unstable conditions. The building ridge will cap them off and prevent them from getting too strong.
Persistent precipitation remains over East Idaho this afternoon with upper low centered over southern Utah per satellite imagery.
High pressure centered north of the terminals maintains ENE or E winds. /issued 744 AM EDT Fri Apr 22 2022/ Upper level ridging stretches from the Rio Grande Valley to the southeast US. placing much of FL on the south side of the ridge axis with northeasterly flow aloft. High pressure on the Mid-Atlantic coast slides out over the Atlantic during the weekend while maintaining a tight pressure gradient across the waters.
mid afternoon satellite imagery/RAP analysis showed the circulation around an omega-like pattern over the CONUS with upper level troughs over the western CONUS and the New England states and the ridge over the central CONUS. This will lead to warmer than normal temperatures through the weekend along with a slow increase in moisture.
Rain will change over to freezing rain or mixed precipitation around midnight and become all snow by tomorrow morning.
148 PM CDT Fri Apr 22 2022 The short term portion of the forecast will be dominated by high pressure. It will cause large scale subsidence in the atmospheric column that results in surface temperatures reaching into the lower 80s thru the first half of the weekend. South winds will be daytime breezy, and become a little more gusty on Saturday as our next developing system approaches and squeezes the gradient together a little tighter between it and the ridge to the east.
237 PM EDT Fri Apr 22 2022 High pressure remains in place through early Saturday.
328 PM CDT Fri Apr 22 2022 Upper ridging this afternoon from the Florida Panhandle northward into the Great Lakes. A deep upper trough was noted over the Intermountain West. At the surface, high pressure over eastern Canada extended southward into the Carolinas, then westward into our area. Low pressure was developing over Colorado. Mid-afternoon temperatures were generally in the lower and middle 80s, with dew points in the 60s.
Weak upper level trough moving east of the area today. Upper level ridge tonight into Saturday moving east Saturday night.
Discussion: For this evening and tonight, ridge of high pressure will remain across the southern Appalachians producing dry conditions. Ridging aloft and mid/low level inversion will limit cloud development.
The KBYX VAD wind profile has depicted much weaker directional veering over the past several hours, and the low-level environment has certainly been worked over after most locations across the island chain saw measurable rainfall earlier today. Upper-level ridging has weakened over the past several days due to an upper-level, positively tilted trough over in the Gulf of Mexico, which has weakened the capping inversion through the mid- levels.
Push of the low level jet/moisture transport into/across the warm front could fire off more storms later tonight, but meso models generally not overly excited at the prospect and/or propose it farther north of the local forecast area. Of more interest will be the line of convection progged to spark on the storm system's cold front, likely encroaching some areas west of the Mississippi River by mid to late evening. Strong southeasterly fetch today swinging to the south later tonight as the system's warm front lifts northward.
Also, over the northeast CWA will have a wind advisory in effect for especially the Coteau where the higher elevations will see some pretty good gusts.
1112 AM MDT Fri Apr 22 2022 Most recent upper air analysis shows the upper low currently over CA, with southwest flow over the upper plains, ridge sliding over the midwest. At the surface, low pressure sits the WY/SD/MT border, with a warm front stretching over southwestern SD. As temperatures cool off and the low slides further east, rain will transition to snow overnight.
240 PM CDT Fri Apr 22 2022 Water vapor imagery showing strong upper trough digging into the Great Basin with thunderstorm activity in Utah. Winds look to be the most consistent issue through Saturday afternoon as the strong upper trough surges northeast. 925 mb winds staying around 40 knots should keep strong winds in place for much of Saturday before a cold front moves in late in the day. Activity in the High Plains is still on track to diminish with eastward extent overnight and should struggle to reach the local area. Main coverage of precip is still expected from late Saturday afternoon through the night as the dry line and cold front surge through, with weakening lapse rates slowly limiting high-based coverage during the day.