Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
741 PM EDT Fri Sep 10 2021 Cooler and drier air will filter into the area over the weekend. Latest sfc analysis shows 1020 mb high pressure centered over the OH Valley with a cold front pushing farther offshore. The high builds into the area during the Near Term period, allowing for no chance of rain and a mostly clear/sunny sky.
932 PM CDT Fri Sep 10 2021 (Issued 924 PM CDT Fri Sep 10 2021) High pressure continues to scoot eastward this evening. This will advect warmer temps and more moisture into the region.
As noted earlier, a narrow layer of instability on the perfiphery of a low level ridge has allowed for shallow diurnal cumulus to develop across most of central Indiana. With the low level ridge still positioned to the SW, and cold air aloft, temperatures have remained seasonal. The overall synoptic pattern will shift overnight as the low level ridge moves over the SE CONUS. Strong WAA on the western edge of this ridge will increase heights dramatically aloft, leading to much warmer temperatures in the mid to upper levels.
Plentiful sunshine will allow high temperatures to reach the lower to middle 80s. Westerlies settle into the Great Lakes this weekend with mid level ridge centered over the Tennessee Valley.
945 PM CDT Fri Sep 10 2021 Summary: A cold front will be entering the Northland tonight and brings the chance for some light showers across the Borderlands. As the cold front moves through the region on Saturday winds will turn to out of the northwest with highs in the upper 60s across northern MN and upper 70s for our southwest. High pressure was observed sliding off to the east this morning as southerly winds filter in across the region on its backside. Overnight, a cold front enters from the northwest and could produce some light showers across the International Border. Cooler temps will be expected across the north with highs in the upper 60s while our southwest counties will still manage to reach the upper 70s.
650 PM CDT Fri Sep 10 2021 Quiet weather and dry conditions continue for the first part of the short term high pressure slowly drifts eastward through Saturday. Plenty of warm air advection into the region will keep temperatures on the warmer end of guidance.
The upper ridge over the region will continue to allow smoke from western U. Breezy winds are expected ahead of the low out of the southeast. As the low shifts south into NE on Saturday, cooler air will move in from the north. By evening, the upper ridge will also be suppressed as an upper trough pushes east into North Dakota.
646 PM CDT Fri Sep 10 2021 A mid/upper ridge over the Southern Rockies will dominate the weather over the region through the weekend and into the upcoming week resulting in above normal temperatures and dry weather conditions.
The short wave trough that brought over 700 cloud to ground lightning strikes and anywhere from a few hundreds of rain up to over three quarters of an inch in some areas has pushed north into OR. We are seeing some increased winds in the Sierra as the trough pulls away with gusts generally 15-25 mph and some gusts 25-35 mph near the Sierra crest.
520 PM MDT Fri Sep 10 2021 Water vapor shows upper ridge axis over the Northern Rockies/Northern Plains, with upper trof over the Pac NW. At the surface, weak trof is over the western Dakotas with cold front pushing south across MT. Dry cold front will drop through the area tonight through Saturday morning, with upper trof shifting slowly into the Northern Rockies. Warm temps expected Saturday, with some 90s possible south/southeast of the Black Hills given slightly later arrival of cold front. Could see a few late day storms, especially in the Black Hills and areas to the south/southeast, with better chance Saturday night further east on the plains as upper trof crosses the Dakotas.
/Issued 258 PM EDT Fri Sep 10 2021/ High pressure and dry conditions will continue across the CWA through the period.
640 PM CDT Fri Sep 10 2021 A warmer, more summer-like day to kick off the weekend Saturday with a west/southwest push of warm air ahead of approaching cold front to the northwest. The cold front looks to drop through in the late afternoon, early evening hours. Not expecting much/any convection to spark along the boundary during the day, but some chances in the evening as the low level jet ramps up.
927 PM CDT Fri Sep 10 2021 Cold front starting to move into our northwestern counties. Showers and thunderstorms continue across southern Manitoba, and still seem on track to clip our northeastern counties, so kept the low POPs we have going for that area. The main cold front is still to our north in Canada, and winds should shift a a more northerly direction overnight. NW wind at 15 kts behind this will diminish and back to the SW ahead of the actual cold front which will drop south thru the area overnight. Cooler this weekend and westerly flow aloft will bring in some mid level clouds at times.
Scattered cumulus clouds have dissipated with sunset, so clear skies likely to continue for the rest of the night with high pressure centered over the Blue Ridge Mountains. Temperatures will drop to the mid to upper 50s by daybreak -- with a few reading in the low 50s over some cool spots. Plentiful sunshine will allow high temperatures to reach the lower to middle 80s. Westerlies settle into the Great Lakes this weekend with mid level ridge centered over the Tennessee Valley.
Otherwise, the general message of "wetter and cooler" is still in place. Otherwise, the trend of continued dry, but cooler conditions, remains likely through the forecast. Cliff PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: Warm, dry, and breezy conditions are expected today as the next upper trough approaches the region from the west. Chances for showers will increase tonight as the trough tracks east over the region, with perhaps an isolated thunderstorm on Saturday.
903 PM EDT Fri Sep 10 2021 High pressure will provide mostly dry weather through the weekend with a warming trend. High pressure center will build in just to our south overnight, resulting in a weak or non-existent low-level wind field. Expect temps to get down into the low 50s and upper 40s by dawn. A broad upper ridge will become more firmly established across the lower Mississippi Valley and southeast CONUS this weekend.
High pressure is moving off of the area this afternoon, but remained in place long enough for dry air to remain in place today. Smoke will not have any impact to tonight's lows, which will range from the upper 50s north to the lower 60s central and south. I'll stay with the NBM, which is cooler than prior runs and accounts for the expected deep mixing, and lower dewpoints that southwest flow should provide. All in all, apparent temperatures in the lower 90s should be paired with a 10 to 15 kt southwest wind.
729 PM EDT Fri Sep 10 2021 High pressure and with drier air across the region will remain in place through the weekend. High pressure and drier air will remain in place across the region overnight. With dewpoints in the lower to mid 50s and winds already light and variable temperatures will drop quickly and yield overnight lows in the mid 50s to around 60. High pressure is firmly in control of the region this weekend leading to superb weather conditions.
Another night of clear skies, a near calm wind, and strong radiational cooling will lead to cooler than normal morning temperatures. High pressure aloft and at the surface will remain in control of our weather as we move into the weekend. The cooler drier air mass over the forecast area, will again result in a fall-like feel to the air tonight into Saturday morning, as lows fall into the upper 50s and lower 60s.
Low amplitude ridging takes hold over the region today shunting the thermal trough towards the Northeast. As this occurs, southwest flow develops in the low levels advecting warmer air from the Plains into lower MI. Either way, highs will be able to easily get into the low to mid 80s. Unfortunately this airmass also brings with it increased moisture as dewpoints climb back into the low to mid 60s making it feel a bit more humid. Rain chances increase Saturday night as the attendant cold front drops into the central Great Lakes.
The main cold front is still to our north in Canada, and winds should shift a a more northerly direction overnight. NW wind at 15 kts behind this will diminish and back to the SW ahead of the actual cold front which will drop south thru the area overnight. Cooler this weekend and westerly flow aloft will bring in some mid level clouds at times.
These clouds were pushing southward on the eastern periphery of the mid/upper level ridge currently centered over the Southern Rocky Mountain region. the mid level ridge is expected to begin expanding eastward into the region with the upper level heights forecast to rise during the day Saturday. continued southerly low level flow should aid in temps close to or slightly warmer again tonight compared this mornings lows. Current forecast lows in the low 60s to low 70s over the CWA look in good shape at this time and have made only slight adjustments based on current trends and observations.
Issued by National Weather Service Denver CO 315 PM MDT Fri Sep 10 2021 Current conditions show only a few cumulus clouds over the higher elevations in this very dry airmass. With the upper level high pressure centered over the central Rockies currently, there has also been very little wind. The high gradually shifts to the east Saturday with increasing west to southwest flow and a few weak disturbances moving through the flow. High temperatures Saturday will only be a few degrees cooler than today's high temperatures.
Otherwise, dry air remains in place in the low and mid levels thanks to deep layer ridging. The Keys remain on the western periphery of said aforementioned ridge, which is keeping convection skirting around the high just to our west and southwest. Cirrus blow off from this convection is moving across the area, accounting for the high cloud deck. This ridge will hold firm for the overnight, along with the dry air. Rain chances will gradually be increasing starting tomorrow as the ridge strengthens and lifts northward, allowing for deeper moisture to return. Thereafter, a strong ridge of high pressure will build across the Atlantic, with the axis penetrating the southeastern United States by tomorrow night.
Showers and thunderstorms will gradually decrease in coverage from southwest to northeast from the mid-afternoon through late evening hours tonight as transient ridging begins to overspread the region, with skies partly clearing. Combination of clearing skies beneath the transient ridge, light winds, and antecedent low level moisture from the day could lead to fog development overnight tonight, with the highest chances for fog developing in areas that see/saw precipitation over the past 24 hours.
Dry weather expected today and tonight as high pressure remains in control. Discussion: Mid-upper level troughing is lifting through the central and southern Appalachians this morning per GOES water vapor imagery. At the surface, high pressure extends across the Central Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic this morning. Today will feature mostly clear skies as surface ridging continues its hold across the region. Temperatures today will be a few degrees warmer than yesterday as highs reach the low to mid 80's across many locations.
As mid level ridging builds in more and with full sunshine abounding, temps will be a bit warmer during the daytime though still seasonable. Plentiful moisture will exist in the Gulf of Mexico in association with an area of disturbed weather/low pressure system near Mexico.
High pressure across the Southern Appalachians will move slowly east through the period bringing dry conditions and mostly clear skies to all sites. Diegan Chattanooga Airport, TN 86 62 88 64 90 / 0 0 0 0 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 83 62 88 64 89 / 0 0 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 83 62 87 63 89 / 0 0 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 81 58 86 61 89 / 0 0 0 0 0.
The strong subtropical midlevel anticyclone was centered over New Mexico at midnight.
431 AM EDT Sat Sep 11 2021 High pressure and with drier air across the region will remain in place through the weekend. A ridge of high pressure will continue the relatively cool and dry conditions again for Saturday. Morning lows Saturday will be several degrees below average, in the low 60s and upper 50s. So overnight lows Sunday will be a few degrees warmer than Saturday but still falling into the low 60s with dry air in place at mid-upper levels still. The dry weather continues through the short term courtesy of strong upper-level ridging. Sunday is a bit warmer and muggier than Saturday with highs in the upper eighties to near ninety. Low temperatures Sunday night should be in the lower sixties.
An upper level ridge over the eastern Rockies that represents an unseasonably warm air mass will move east into KS/MO today/tonight. Progged high temperatures will generally be in the low/mid 90s both days, but a dry air mass should allow lows to fall into the mid 60s to around 70 with comfortable nighttime humidity.
1021 PM MDT Fri Sep 10 2021 Water vapor shows upper ridge axis over the Northern Rockies/Northern Plains, with upper trof over the Pac NW. At the surface, weak trof is over the western Dakotas with cold front pushing south across MT. Dry cold front will drop through the area tonight through Saturday morning, with upper trof shifting slowly into the Northern Rockies. Warm temps expected Saturday, with some 90s possible south/southeast of the Black Hills given slightly later arrival of cold front. Could see a few late day storms, especially in the Black Hills and areas to the south/southeast, with better chance Saturday night further east on the plains as upper trof crosses the Dakotas.
233 AM MDT Sat Sep 11 2021 Current surface map places cold front across northeast Wyoming/western South Dakota. Cold front stalls out over northeast Wyoming while remainder of front slips into Nebraska this morning.
(Today and tonight) Upper level ridge of high pressure remains the dominant weather story in the short term.
417 AM EDT Sat Sep 11 2021 High pressure remains off the mid Atlantic coast today and tonight, then gradually weakens Sunday and Sunday night.
(Today through Sunday afternoon) Models show the flattening of our upper level ridge this afternoon happening right around peak heating, meaning we will still manage to get pretty warm today.
The current thinking is that the threat of any thunderstorms will decrease over the next hour as warmer 700-hPa temps arrive, acting to diminish the instability. A weak warm front will also be moving north-northeastward through this area. The warming trend will continue as the upper level ridge currently centered over northern NM shifts eastward into MO, along with increasing southwesterly surface winds Saturday. High temperatures Saturday will be warmer, and about 10 degrees above normal.
Thankfully, relief from the dry conditions we're stuck in will start on Sunday, as upper-level ridging shifts off to the east. Afternoon highs will continue to run in the low 90s, with crisp overnight lows continuing to range in the low 60s.
Temperatures continue to run several degrees below guidance with efficient radiational cooling, and much of the area will bottom out in the lower 50s to upper 40s by sunrise. The warming trend will be most notable tonight, however, as increasing humidity, cloud cover, and warm advection keep overnight lows 10+ degrees warmer than this morning. Broad upper ridging will become more firmly established across the lower Miss.
An upper trough stretching south along the East Coast shifts east as upper level high pressure over New Mexico shifts east to over the Tennessee River Valley. The southern end of the upper trough gets caught over the northern Gulf of Mexico, though. 5" or less along and north of the Highway 84 corridor to around 2" along the coast by Sunday evening. The forecast area will see an increase in rain chances into Saturday night over the northern Gulf of Mexico as the upper trough moves in and upper subsidence increases inland over the Southeast.
Tranquil conditions across the Tennessee Valley, with high pressure in control of the weather. Southerly flow in the low-levels will nudge moisture upward throughout the period. Upper level heights will rise rather significantly on Saturday and the upper level ridge will be centered across the Tennessee Valley on Sunday.
1233 AM CDT Sat Sep 11 2021 Quiet weather and dry conditions continue for the first part of the short term high pressure slowly drifts eastward through Saturday. Plenty of warm air advection into the region will keep temperatures on the warmer end of guidance.
140 AM EDT Sat Sep 11 2021 Cooler and drier air will settle over the area much of the weekend before a gradual return of heat and humidity in the upcoming week. Latest sfc analysis shows 1020 mb high pressure centered over the OH Valley with a cold front pushing farther offshore. The high builds into the area during the Near Term period, allowing for no chance of rain and a mostly clear/sunny sky. High pressure nearly overhead on Sunday will continue the streak of drier weather. Expecting lows to fall into the lower 60s with a few of our cold spots near 60 or into the upper 50s.
Current satellite shows mainly clear skies across southern Indiana and central Kentucky while KY Mesonet observations show temperatures in the low to mid 60s. Bottom line, some of the coolest lows will still be in the low 50s, while areas I-65 and west could only end up around the 60 degree mark. However, given the warm advection component and some mid to late afternoon clearing, think we'll still end up with values in the low to mid 80s in most spots.
As the trough continues to shift eastward, a surface cold front will drag across the state starting early Saturday morning.
This will leave southwest into central Kansas sandwiched between the ridge axis immediately south, and stronger westerlies over far northwest KS into Colorado and Nebraska. Under this setup, the lee trough will continue to extend from eastern New Mexico into western Kansas with any sign of deeper boundary layer moisture kept well east of the area via south to southwest winds. Sunday into Sunday night will see only a slight change in the upper pattern as the ridge axis continues to flatten and elongate across the Southern Rockies to Southern Plains while a belt of stronger westerlies prevail over northern Kansas into Nebraska. This will permit a weak cold front to slide south and stall over northwest Kansas into south-central Nebraska with a lee trough extending southwest into eastern New Mexico.
233 AM CDT Sat Sep 11 2021 An upper trough will continue to slide southeast of the area today. Highs will reach the middle 80s for most valley areas today, with upper 80s in the Shoals possible, and upper 70s to around 80 atop the higher Plateaus/Mountains.
313 AM CDT Sat Sep 11 2021 Early this morning an amplified upper level ridge was centered across NM and extended northward along the lee slope of the central Rockies.
High pressure is moving off of the area this afternoon, but remained in place long enough for dry air to remain in place today. Smoke will not have any impact to tonight's lows, which will range from the upper 50s north to the lower 60s central and south. I'll stay with the NBM, which is cooler than prior runs and accounts for the expected deep mixing, and lower dewpoints that southwest flow should provide. All in all, apparent temperatures in the lower 90s should be paired with a 10 to 15 kt southwest wind. Beginning Saturday night, a warm front is progged to develop near the IA/MN border, with slight meandering to the south near to the DVN/ARX border Sunday.
342 AM EDT Sat Sep 11 2021 A weak upper trough will move into the Carolinas by this evening and by Sunday upper level high pressure will build into the area.
Cold front starting to move into our northwestern counties. Showers and thunderstorms continue across southern Manitoba, and still seem on track to clip our northeastern counties, so kept the low POPs we have going for that area. The main cold front is still to our north in Canada, and winds should shift a a more northerly direction overnight. NW wind at 15 kts behind this will diminish and back to the SW ahead of the actual cold front which will drop south thru the area overnight. Cooler this weekend and westerly flow aloft will bring in some mid level clouds at times.
241 AM EDT Sat Sep 11 2021 High pressure will bring sunny and dry weather over the weekend.
356 AM CDT Sat Sep 11 2021 Early this morning winds are gusting to 40 mph behind a cold front, but this should end by sunrise. The cold front is already in the southern RRV early this morning, and peak pressure rises should drop off limit further gusts. Regarding temperatures: Surface-850 MB flow tends to remain northerly or easterly, keeping a cooler air mass in place. More expansive cloud cover increases the potential for temperatures to fall on the lower end of those ranges. Light winds and this cooler air mass should support lows in the 40s to lower 50s (coldest locations may fall to near 40 under clear skies). Cold front dropping through has shifted winds at KDVL and KGFK to the north or northwest, and will at KTVF shortly.
1144 PM CDT Fri Sep 10 2021 A mid/upper ridge over the Southern Rockies will dominate the weather over the region through the weekend and into the upcoming week resulting in above normal temperatures and dry weather conditions.
317 AM CDT Sat Sep 11 2021 High pressure was well east of the region early this morning with a warm front/trough lifting into the southwest portion of the CWA. Max heat indices will reach into the lower and middle 90s.
Today Through Sunday Night High Pressure at the surface in the southeast/mid-Atlantic in conjunction with 500mb ridging over the forecast area will keep weather across the forecast area persistent with the overall fair weather we have seen over the last few days. High temperatures will top out in the lower 90's/upper 80's and low temperatures will fall into a range from the mid 60's to low 70's across the state.
337 AM CDT Sat Sep 11 2021 Upper level ridging continues to build across the region today. In the meantime, west to southwest low level jet is still progged to advect in warmer 850mb temps, between 20 and 25C today. Little change on Sunday with another well above normal day with highs in the low to mid 90s. Thus dewpoints will be in the low to mid 60s today and tomorrow, so do not expect excessive heat and humidity through the weekend.
207 AM EDT Sat Sep 11 2021 High pressure will bring dry weather with warmer temperatures each day through the weekend and into the next work week. High pressure will slowly push east through the period. The combination of light winds, a dry airmass and few clouds should allow temperatures to once again fall to the low to mid 50s across the lowlands with 40s across the higher elevations. Abundant sunshine and southerly winds should result in daytime temperatures warming in the low 80s across the lowlands with 70s and even some mid 60s across the higher elevations. A high pressure system will slowly slide eastward across the area over the weekend and into the next work week.
Today Through Sunday A fair weather haiku: Temps higher than norms As the upper ridge flattens Still, no rain in store.
the upper level pattern features a broadening 591dam upper ridge axis extending from the southwest California east to the Mid Atlantic states. Behind the trough high temperatures are expected to be in the mid 90s to around 102 degrees while ahead of it temperatures are expected to reach the 102F to 105F range.
Sunday will be fairly quiet, with temperatures climbing into the low 80s.