Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1231 PM CDT Mon May 29 2017 A semi-vertically-stacked area of low pressure over northern Ontario will not be moving anywhere in a hurry through Tuesday. This low will maintain cool, humid, and breezy west-northwest flow across the Northland. The GFS, NAM, RAP, and SREF indicate there will be up to a few hundred J/kg of MUCAPE over the higher terrain of the Arrowhead, and in the far southeast forecast in northwest Wisconsin. Tonight's cloud cover will bolster temperatures to the lower 40s.
349 PM EDT Mon May 29 2017 A cold front will push east across the area tonight.
and low pressure continuing across the Great Lakes.
1118 AM MDT Mon May 29 2017 Weak cold front dropping south through the plains early this morning, as latest in a series of short waves rotates southwestward around the Great Lakes upper trough.
359 PM EDT Mon May 29 2017 Today into Tuesday, upper level ridge still remains over the region keeping mostly dry conditions across South Florida.
1209 PM MDT Mon May 29 2017 The GOES-R water vapor imagery showed a nearly stationary upper low spinning north of MN, and a upper ridge situated over the Intermountain West. A cold front extended from occluded low south of Hudson Bay Canada through southeast MN, far southern SD, northeast WY to northwest MT. The cold front to the north will progress southward across the CWA this morning. High temperatures today will be slightly cooler with highs in the 60s to around 70. Tuesday will trend warmer and slightly drier as precip water values lower between 0.
241 PM EDT Mon May 29 2017 Upper level low pressure will drift east across the north side of the Great Lakes this week.
326 PM CDT Mon May 29 2017 Weak cold front has pushed into NE OK with an axis of agitated CU marking the the boundary.
245 PM EDT Mon May 29 2017 Ridging over the region will weaken today as a frontal boundary slowly pushes into the area. Will continue to increase pops from dry into the high chance category through the afternoon and into the evening hours.
1120 AM PDT Mon May 29 2017 High pressure continues over the Inland Northwest through Tuesday with unseasonably warm temperatures. There is a small chance of thunderstorms in the higher elevations, otherwise expect dry weather. A cold front arrives Tuesday night with a better chance of showers and thunderstorms.
228 PM PDT Mon May 29 2017 An upper-level trough will persist over the region through most of the week along with cool conditions and night through morning low clouds and fog.
The highest PoPs(chance) will be across the Northern Edwards Plateau.
Convection that develops across the higher terrain of southern Colorado will have more difficulty spread very far east into western Kansas Tuesday evening. Still as few storms may be possible at the nose of the low level jet Tuesday evening.
300 PM CDT Mon May 29 2017 Cool/humid airmass circulating around a broad low to the east will dominate conditions in the northeast and western Minnesota tonight, however in our west, we see a ridge of high pressure nosing down out of Canada. Not the best setup for ideal radiation conditions as we maintain light northerly flow through early Tuesday, but with the cool start, dewpoints in the low 30s, a relaxing gradient, and loss of diabatically driven cumulus - anticipate temperatures will crash overnight/early Tuesday particularly across north central/northwest counties. The high continues to build across the region Tuesday, though the influence of the upper low will persist across our far east into western Minnesota with more diabatically driven cumulus, some light sprinkles and late morning gusty winds.
131 PM EDT Mon May 29 2017 Weak high pressure will keep Memorial Day mostly dry with seasonable temperatures. High pressure will briefly sit over the region, with temperatures near normal this afternoon. Scattered showers will continue on Tuesday as a cold front crosses the forecast area. Restrictions are possible Wed with an upper trough, and again Fri with low pressure.
330 PM CDT Mon May 29 2017 Closed upper low that has affected northern plains for the last couple of days has moved east into western Great Lakes. The upper low has pushed a cold front into the northern Gulf and northeastward to Pennsylvania. Upper ridge over the Western CONUS placing northern plains in fast Northwest flow. Have backed off cooler temperatures over the northwest. Upper ridge and warmer air aloft pushes east on Tuesday.
637 PM EDT Mon May 29 2017 A weak cold front will push east across the area tonight.
Weak surface ridging will keep precip in check for the remainder of the region.
The first disturbance will be in the form of a weak cold front. The next few days will be rather active as this weak cold front will stall over the area.
Clear skies, light winds, a cool start to the evening and dewpoints in the 30s support a good setup for radiational cooling and the lower edge of the 12 UTC forecast guidance envelope across the west and far south central. Widespread lows in the lower to mid 30s are expected, if not a bit cooler, with widespread frost.
Upper ridge extending from the Canadian Rockies into the Great Basin will slowly move east over the next few days. Canadian high pressure dropping across the northern plains will bring a dry and more stable airmass into the region tonight and Tuesday. With clear skies and light winds, along with dry airmass, could see temperatures drop to near freezing in some locations tonight, particularly the northeast corner of the state. Sunny weather expected on Tuesday with winds beginning to turn toward the east as the high moves into the Dakotas. An amplified ridge, extending north through the Northwest Territories into the Arctic Ocean, will control conditions for the next several days.
For 00z Aviation discussion below Latest analysis indicates the large low pressure system in control of our weather is centered over western Ontario. The low will slowly lift northeast through the period, but tomorrow will see similarly cool temperatures to today.
Forecast remains dominated by an upper low that will continue to wobble around over Ontario and Quebec through the week. A series of troughs will rotate around this low through the Great Lakes presenting several opportunities for increased cloud cover and possibly some precipitation. Aided by the left exit region of a jet streak to our south, decent vorticity lobe expanding outward from the low, enhanced ribbon of theta e, and strong low/mid level lapse rates to utilize around 500 j/kg of elevated CAPE, we should continue to see a scattered coverage of showers and thunderstorms through the evening hours. Lapse rates will still be favorable as cooler airmass slides in aloft, and CAPE could still reach a few hundred J/kg, thus we'll keep the slight chance mention.
401 PM EDT Mon May 29 2017 Cyclonic flow will rule across the Ohio and Tennessee Valley regions through the short term, as an upper level low currently positioned across southern Ontario, lifts north and deepens as additional short wave energy moves in from north central Canada. One cold front has settled off to our southeast today, with a passing upper level jet streak providing enough lift to allow for some thicker higher clouds to linger across our area. The next cold front will drop down and move through eastern Kentucky on Tuesday, sparking a few showers and storms, especially in the far southeast.
1134 AM MDT Mon May 29 2017 Imagery shows amplified ridge over the wrn CONUS with a broadening trof stretching from ecntrl Canada through the nrn Plains then across the midwest as far south as Arkansas. The SFC has high pressure currently in place over WY with a weak trof/boundary near the CO/WY border and a cold front draped across sern MT and nrn SD. Monday and Tuesday - the FA will remain under NW flow aloft with just enough instability in the afternoons and evenings to get a few isolated showers/thunder mainly over the higher terrain, or closely adjacent areas, of the FA.
Closed 500 mb low/trough wobbling slowly across the region/southern Canada, gradually slated to lift northeast of the region Wed night. Cold air advection continues in the low levels, with various bits of upper level energy rotating through the trough. Both then want to lift a west-east running warm front northward across the local forecast area Thu night.
144 PM EDT Mon May 29 2017 The local area will be located between low pressure over the Upper Great Lakes and a ridge across the lower Ohio Valley today.
Any cells will stay over the higher terrain and not produce significant moisture.
129 PM EDT Mon May 29 2017 A cold front will move across the area this afternoon bringing a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. A weak trough rotating around a strong stationary low pressure system over Ontario will bring a slight chance of showers to our area again Tuesday.
258 PM CDT Mon May 29 2017 A BEAUTIFUL Memorial Day is ongoing across the entire area! As of 19Z, a pesky upper low continues to spin across southern Ontario. Given the high LCL heights and well mixed BL (Inverted V soundings), evaporative cooling may contribute to isolated damaging wind gusts. Tuesday night with northwest flow aloft and high pressure sliding through the northern plains return flow becomes established across portions of southern KS. Convergence associated with the low level jet and isentropic lift on the 305 K surface should support showers and scattered storms given elevated instability on the order of a few hundred j/kg.
335 PM CDT Mon May 29 2017 An upper level low is currently located across the Great Lakes region with a front stretching across the region from central Kansas across central Missouri this afternoon. Highs have warmed into the lower 80s this afternoon.
/issued 400 AM CDT Mon May 29 2017/ Broad upper level troughing covers the central and northeastern U.
300 PM MDT Mon May 29 2017 Generally dry and warm on this Memorial Day as high pressure remains overhead with some spotty showers popping up over the northern mountains. The next Pacific trough will begin to dig inland Tuesday evening which will shift the ridge of high pressure east and allow additional moisture to stream into the region.
High pressure over Texas will allow for light/calm winds.
314 AM CST Wed Jan 24 2018 06z surface data has a frontal boundary running from northern Ohio back into Minnesota while high pressure was across the southern Plains. Quiet and dry conditions will be seen across the area tonight as high pressure moves into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys.
929 PM MST Tue Jan 23 2018 Just completed to make some adjustments to the low temperatures. Looks like temperatures will be a little warmer than expected in the eastern portion of the area.
Ridging aloft will move out of the Intermountain West into the Western High Plains today while a west-southwesterly downslope flow reinforces a fairly dry air mass across the region. An ongoing warming trend will continue through today as a strengthening lee side trough across eastern Colorado sets up a southwesterly flow across western Kansas. This will draw warmer air into the high plains pushing highs well up into the 50s(F) to near 60F this afternoon. The draw of warmer air will keep lows from dropping below the 20s(F) across much of the area tonight with the lower to mid 30s(F) likely in extreme southwest Kansas.
12z models are in agreement that a short wave trough will move southeast through Iowa and Missouri tonight. On Wednesday, the models show that another short wave trough will move southeast across northern Minnesota and Wisconsin.
The low clouds in place look like they may get stuck. The low level inversion is rather strong and persistent as well. Seeder-feeder is when ice crystals fall from a higher cloud deck, in this case from the mid level saturation with the wave, to the lower cloud deck, resulting in snowflakes.
1201 AM EST Wed Jan 24 2018 Aviation Cooler air will rest over the region through mid week.
1032 PM CST Tue Jan 23 2018 Temperatures have cooled off faster than anticipated this evening, with many areas already in the lower 30s. /issued 802 PM CST Tue Jan 23 2018/ The trough centered over the Great Lakes continues to lift northeast this evening, resulting in strong quasi-zonal flow aloft over the Mid-South. Temperatures range from the lower 40s north to the lower 50s across parts of North Mississippi.
WV imagery indicates a weak upper level ridge of high pressure moving eastward across the Intermountain West. Near the surface, a weak lee side trough of low pressure is slowly developing across eastern Colorado. Lows are expected to be in the mid to upper teens across far west central KS, to the lower 20s across south central KS. On Wednesday, large scale ridging will spread out across the Rockies into the western Great Plains, leading to lee trough development. Warming lower tropospheric temperatures are expected as a result of the approaching ridge, with 850mb temperatures reaching +5 to +8C.
303 AM CST Wed Jan 24 2018 The weather across eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas will be rather benign Today as high pressure prevails. High temperatures will be above normal for this time of year and a few degrees warmer than those that were recorded on Tuesday.
The main frontal boundary that brought rain to the state yesterday has moved off the GA/SC coast and is ushering in high pressure from the southern and central plains.
Winds will be light and variable across most locales through at least noon as high pressure slides towards East TX. Most areas tonight should see warmer conditions as southerly winds and a slight increase in low level moisture occur. It'll remain chilly, however, with most areas seeing low temperatures near or just above "freezing.
249 AM CST Wed Jan 24 2018 Early this morning, a shorter wave length upper trough extended from MN, southward across northern MO and was digging east- southeast, where it will phase and amplify a longer wave length upper trough across the eastern US Today through Tonight. Weak WAA will allow high temperatures to warm into the lower 50s south of I-70 with highs in the mid 40s along the NE border. Tonight, southerly winds will only allow over night lows to drop into the upper 20s to lower 30s across northeast and north central KS with lows in the lower to mid 30s across east central KS.
In the end, adjusted previous forecast to match current cooler temperature trends but only very slightly lowered low temperature expectations in most areas. Many areas north of the Highway 84 corridor will have a light freeze with confidence of a few hours of sub freezing conditions increasing as you north. Low temperatures will generally range from the low to mid 30s.
1117 PM CST Tue Jan 23 2018 A few reports of light freezing drizzle have been noted in the northeastern part of the central IL forecast area in Vermilion and Champaign counties this evening. Have included a few hours of freezing drizzle mention in the evening update in this area. A weak mid level trough and associated vort max will move through the area late tonight and tomorrow morning. Some models are dry with this trough and some produce very little qpf. However, in this kind of environment in the winter, weak troughs with a mid level vort max, and some lower level cloud cover can easily wring out some scattered flurries.
Temperatures are running somewhat cooler than those in the previous forecast, especially across southwest Montana and over the northeast TFX plains (including the Havre area), so have generally lowered lows there between 5 and 10 degrees. Milk River valley east of Havre also has very small temperature-dewpoint spread, so have added mention of patchy freezing fog there for after midnight through most of Wednesday morning.
Thus, we anticipate most areas to clear out in the low levels today, though there is some thin high clouds west river. With the favorable low level flow (albeit becoming more southerly) will go with higher end guidance for high temperatures today, as mixed temperatures to 900mb yield highs in the low to mid 40s.
The high clouds are associated with an upper level wave working through the region. When the period opens Wednesday night, a large upper level ridge of high pressure is beginning to build into the region.
Also a few reports of freezing drizzle over southern Indiana, and cloud top temps suggest precip type could remain an issue. Still not expecting major travel issues overnight, but as temps drop to freezing or below, we could see a few slick spots on untreated roads, mainly on bridges and other elevated surfaces. low pressure system.
Current GOES-16 WV imagery shows yesterdays mid- latitude cyclone over the eastern Great Lakes region with the closed upper level low beginning to fill in the past few hours. Associated cold front continues to push through the eastern CONUS and nearly ready to make its way offshore. Also, any fog that develops would be very patchy and probably only ground fog, if that, due to cloud cover in place and dry air mixing in from the lowest levels above the surface.
It has brought dry and a bit cooler air. The lower stratus clouds over parts of far northern AR earlier has thinned and moved northeast.
The ridge will start building across lower MI later this evening leaving a short period of lingering cyclonic flow through the early part of the day. Cold advection will help steepen low level lapse rates today which combined with a weak cold front, and the saturation layer getting into the -12C layer to produce some flurries. Better chances of snow showers will occur just south of the state as a vort max drops through the base of the trough through the Ohio Valley.
First, the upper-level short wave is rather weak, and upper-level ridging dominates. Also some concerns that the low-level gradient around ARL could be more W-E rather than a more favorable SW-NE. Based on this reasoning we decided to maintain the High Wind Watch, and let the next shift decide if a warning is warranted. Did not reflect this in the High Wind Watch product for Arlington/Bordeaux, but we did go ahead and add the Ferris/Seminoe mountains in northern Carbon county.
Current forecast is for lows in the single digits across north- central and central Wisconsin, and in the lower teens across the Fox Valley and lakeshore. Otherwise, fairly quiet weather and light winds are expected tomorrow with high temps near normal, in the lower to middle 20s. Wednesday Night Through Tuesday Upper ridging will occur over the latter half of the work week, with dry weather anticipated through the period.
A light freeze is possible along and north of the highway 84 corridor tonight, especially with winds settling.
Band of showers with the occasional storm moving into region this evening just ahead of cold front. /issued 429 PM EST Tue Jan 23 2018/ Short Term (This afternoon through Wednesday night): Slow moving cold front is responsible for showers and a few thunderstorms that have been occurring this afternoon, mainly over northern portions of South Florida, including the Lake region. The cold front will move through South Florida tonight. The cold front has been weakening significantly as it moves southeastward, so this cold front will not bring air as cold as the fronts earlier this month. The coldest night will be Wednesday night, when lows are forecast to range from the upper 40s in Glades County to the lower 60s along the southeast beaches.
Modification will keep those areas near Lake Michigan several degrees "warmer". Remaining on the chilly side Wednesday with a strong area of high pressure building down from the north. High pressure is moving east Wednesday night with a warm front trying to lift moisture in the Upper Great Lakes, behind the high.
WV imagery shows an upper ridge over the west coast, and a trough developing immediately west of the FA, which is in turn developing SW flow aloft over West Texas and Southeast New Mexico. The aforementioned trough developing just west of here is still forecast to close off and move NE to the Texas Panhandle by 00Z Fri, w/out much affect on things here.
Breaks likely tied to subsidence associated with short wave ridging and DNVA. Western edge of stratus not showing much erosion eastward, and with diminishing low level winds with approaching ridge, expect low clouds to remain over western CWA tonight.
/issued 850 PM EST Tue Jan 23 2018/ A cold front continues to make slow progress across the southern Florida peninsula. Cooler drier air will advect in behind the front, with areas along the Nature Coast falling to around 40 degrees by sunrise Wednesday. A cold front continues to move south across the region, allowing winds to become northerly. Breezy north/northeast winds will fill in behind a cold front as the pressure gradient tightens. As strong high pressure builds in north of the waters through the week, expect periods of cautionary to borderlined advisory conditions, especially overnight with nocturnal easterly wind surges.
A ridge of high pressure along with lee-side troughing will dominate the weather for today. Temperatures today should be a little warmer with some downslope flow, with highs in the 40s.
1150 PM CST Tue Jan 23 2018 A broad low pressure system continues to push east northeast out of the region. A look at recent satellite trends show the low clouds slowly eroding from the southwest in central and southeast Missouri. An upstream short wave trough will rotate around the base of the broad trough and will provide a chance for snow flurries early Wednesday morning over parts of northeast Missouri and western Illinois. It will be warmer tomorrow with highs in the 40s with southwesterly winds.
The area remains downstream of a large ridge over the western CONUS. Highs are expected to range from the low 40s across most of Nebraska to the upper 40s and low 50s across Kansas.
Dry air in place combined with the light winds and clear skies will allow temperatures to the lower and middle 20s across most of eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas based on latest data and trends.
1256 AM EST Wed Jan 24 2018 Low pressure over the Great Lakes will continue to move northeast of the region, but cold air behind the system will keep cloudy skies in the forecast through tomorrow.
Tomorrow, an upper level ridge will settle into place over the central part of the country, while at the surface, high pressure slides east, shifting our winds to the south.
Some very light showers/snow showers occurring along parts of the higher terrain in Southwest Virginia and Northeast Tennessee. Because the clouds should stick around most of the day, temperatures are expected to be several degrees cooler than yesterday.
1130 PM CST Tue Jan 23 2018 Temperatures will remain the primary concern in this forecast period along with potential for fog as warmer air returns to the region. A higher layer of clouds over central and eastern Nebraska was overtaking the low cloud layer. This higher layer was in association with a mid level trough moving across the central plains this afternoon. Warmer readings in the mid to upper 30s were just upstream of the area along with less cloud cover.
/issued 1032 PM CST Tue Jan 23 2018/ Temperatures have cooled off faster than anticipated this evening, with many areas already in the lower 30s. /issued 802 PM CST Tue Jan 23 2018/ The trough centered over the Great Lakes continues to lift northeast this evening, resulting in strong quasi-zonal flow aloft over the Mid-South. Temperatures range from the lower 40s north to the lower 50s across parts of North Mississippi.
225 AM CST Wed Jan 24 2018 Temperatures are noticeably cooler this morning behind yesterday's frontal passage.
/issued 247 PM CST Tue Jan 23 2018/ (Tonight and Wednesday) High pressure over the region will keep conditions quiet across West Central Texas tonight and into Wednesday. Highs will be in the lower to mid 60's with light southeasterly winds in the afternoon.