Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
/ISSUED 251 PM CST THU NOV 5 2015/ THE UPPER TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR OUR GUSTY WSW WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO EXIT TO THE NE INTO THE HIGH PLAINS ALLOWING OUR WINDS TO RELAX. AT OR BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE COMMON FOR THE NWRN PORTIONS OF THE FA. THOUGH IT LOOKS LIKE LUBBOCK MAY JUST BARELY ESCAPE THE FREEZING MARK THIS TIME. THE DAY WILL BE MUCH CALMER WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AS WE PREPARE FOR THE PASSAGE OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. COOL DAYS AND MORNING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AFTER TODAYS COLD FRONT. ANOTHER PASSING TROUGH TO THE NORTH WILL REINFORCE THE COOLER AIR IN PLACE BY SENDING A COLD FRONT THROUGH ON FRIDAY NIGHT.
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WATER VAPOR SHOWS UPPER TROF WORKING THROUGH THE NRN/CNTRL ROCKIES. BROAD HIGH PRESSURE COVERS MUCH OF THE ROCKIES. UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE NRN PLAINS RESULTING DRY CONDITIONS AND TEMPS WARMING INTO THE 50S.
302 AM EST FRI NOV 6 2015 COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. COOLER.
WATER VAPOR/RAP 400MB ANALYSIS SHOWING EVOLUTION OF AN ELONGATED/DEEP MID-LEVEL TROUGH MAKING INROADS TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE PLAINS. A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM JUST WEST OF THE ARROWHEAD OF MN THROUGH NORTHWEST IA. INFLUX OF LOWER/LEVEL BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WAS PRODUCING EXTENSIVE STRATUS/PATCHY DRIZZLE ACROSS THE AREA AS DEW POINTS WERE INCREASING INTO THE MIDDLE/UPPER 50S AHEAD OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT. COLDER BRISK CONDITIONS FOR THE AREA ON FRIDAY IN RATHER TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN DEPARTING LOW/COLD FRONT AND BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE PLAINS. MODELS SWING A TROUGH THROUGH THE AREA WITH THE NAM EVEN SHOWING SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW BREAKING OUT ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST IA. COLDEST CORE OF AIR OVER THE AIR ON SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA.
422 AM EST FRI NOV 6 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE QUICKLY EAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. DRIER CONDITIONS WILL THEN RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE LOWER 70S LATER THIS MORNING. LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. BUT AS THE HIGH BECOME MORE ENTRENCHED SATURDAY NIGHT SKIES SHOULD GO CLEAR.
354 AM CST FRI NOV 6 2015 EARLY MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM CENTRAL IL TO NORTHERN TX.
1246 AM EST FRI NOV 6 2015 AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT WILL INCREASE RAIN CHANCES FRIDAY AND RETURN TEMPERATURES BACK TO SEASONAL LEVELS FOR THE WEEKEND.
UPPER TROUGH AXIS HAS CROSSED CO AND WE ARE NOW IN A SHOWERY POST- FRONTAL REGIME. THE LOWER ELEVATIONS SHOULD STAY DRY BUT WITH INCREASING CLOUDS FRI AFTERNOON. ROSE AN UPR TROF WL BE MOVING SOUTH OVR THE AREA FRI NIGHT AND WL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS. THE UPR TROF MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA SATURDAY AND AN UPR RIDGE BUILDS OVR THE AREA. THE WEATHER WL BE DRY AND TEMPS WL REMAIN COOL WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S AND 50S OVR THE HIGH VALLEYS AND THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS.
1131 PM CST THU NOV 5 2015 The cold front is making steady progress toward western IL, and should reach near the IL river valley by 07z. Lightning in precip along the cold front has been steadily diminishing as the evening has progressed. Main cold front showing up on radar just northwest of Des Moines this afternoon and extends southwest into north central Kansas per surface observations. The cold front will have moved through the state by Friday morning which will allow a dry high pressure area to build into the region for the weekend.
AS SLY FLOW BECOMES MORE ENTRENCHED WELL AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO THE MIDWEST STATES. ALTHOUGH THE BETTER MID/UPPER FORCING LOOKS TO REMAIN SITUATED RIGHT ALONG THE COLD FRONT. EVEN WITH SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS STARTING TO FILTER INTO THE WRN HALF OF THE AREA AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
CURRENTLY IN THE LOWER 70S. THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL SWING IN FROM A MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION IN THE LOWEST LAYERS AND CLOUDS SHOULD DEVELOP AREA WIDE QUICKLY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO CENTRAL ALABAMA LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
A STRONG COLD FRONT NOW OVER MN WILL RAPIDLY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
242 AM EST FRI NOV 6 2015 COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHEAST TODAY AND TONIGHT. COOLER.
253 AM CST FRI NOV 6 2015 With cool and dry air over the area will continue the Freeze Warning this morning for northern Lea county New Mexico as temperatures are already below freezing and will continue for the next several hours.
A cold front was entering our northern counties and will continue to push southeast across the rest of our area tonight, overtaking the boundary ahead of it. At the surface, weak cold front extends from near an Abilene to San Angelo line at 21Z (3 PM). Warmer temperatures aloft than expected helped cap the area and keep the rain chances down this afternoon. Cold front is barely moving southeast at this point, and this had created very little convergence as well. Still relatively warm again tomorrow afternoon, although a colder air mass will settle across the area during the day and keep temperatures 10 to 15 degrees colder than they ended up today, with highs in the low to mid 70s.
A DRY LINE WAS MOVING THROUGH THE HILL COUNTRY WITH A COLD FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE. SFC DEW PTS IN THE LOW/MID 70S OVER MOST OF THE AREA AT 800 PM.
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO BOMB OUT THROUGH FRI NIGHT AS THE LOW QUICKLY MOVES INTO NORTHERN QUEBEC.
1132 PM CST THU NOV 5 2015 THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH WILL RAPIDLY DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TOWARD THE PLAINS ON FRIDAY. THE TROUGH WILL USHER IN A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR BACK ACROSS THE SANDHILLS REGION AND THE POTENTIAL OF LIGHT QPF TO THE NORTHERN SANDHILLS AND SW NEBRASKA. THE REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL AIR WILL ALLOW FOR HIGHS IN THE LOW 40S TO LOWER 50S /FROM NORTH TO SOUTH/. THE LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST ASSUMES THAT SUFFICIENT CLEARING WILL TAKE PLACE.
SOME CIRRUS IS SEEN IN IR SATELLITE LOOP ASSOCIATED WITH GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING MEAN WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH. OTHERWISE CLEAR SKIES WERE OBSERVED ACROSS THE REGION ALLOWING FOR EXCELLENT RADIATIVE COOLING CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES FALLING TO OR JUST BELOW FREEZING FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS SEASON AT SOME LOCATIONS. WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED TROUGH PUSHING QUICKLY EAST INTO THE ROCKIES. ALTHOUGH THERE MAY INITIALLY BE A WEAK SURFACE RESPONSE IN THE FORM OF A LEE TROUGH OVER NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND FALLING SURFACE PRESSURES THIS AFTERNOON. THE COOL SURGE WITH THIS SECOND TROUGH PASSAGE WILL RESULT IN COOLER TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY.
1141 PM CST THU NOV 5 2015 Main focus today is on the storms that are bubbling up along and just ahead of a cold front that currently stretches from southeast Nebraska southwest into central Kansas this afternoon, near Manhattan Kansas. The trough across the Western CONUS has begun to move out into the Plains as bits of the trough begin to lift northeast. This has helped push the cold front onto the doorstep of our forecast area by early afternoon. temperatures will be a bit cooler.
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS BECOMING WIDESPREAD. MAIN FORCING MECHANISM FOR CONVECTION WILL BE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER LEVEL JET ENHANCING FRONTO-GENETIC FORCING ALONG PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH.
/issued 602 PM CST THU NOV 5 2015/ Quick update to allow for the expiration of the High Wind Warning for the Guadalupe Mountains. /issued 213 PM CST THU NOV 5 2015/ Upper trough over AZ/NM this morning lifting quickly NE today. A secondary trough swings down across the 4 Corners region Friday. After that high pressure builds in from the west bringing mild wx to the region. The upper trough has pushed a Pacific front through the region today with a brisk west wind in its wake. By this afternoon the wind was pushing the low level moisture from the region. will leave the High Wind Warning in effect until 00Z. A cold front blows through the area early Saturday bringing cooler temps with highs in the 60s for the weekend.
Cold front currently moving through Osage and Pawnee counties.
BAND OF CONVECTION IS MISSING ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH. SHEAR VALUES BE INCREASING AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROF SWINGING OUT OVER THE SRN PLAINS. THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT WILL SHIFT FARTHER SE OVER NRN LA AS THE COLD FRONT MOVING IN LATER TONIGHT STALLS OUT ALONG OR NEAR THE I-20 CORRIDOR.
AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PROVIDE VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA.
350 PM EDT WED JUL 15 2015 19Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO KENTUCKY FROM THE NORTH MAKING FOR A COOLER AND DRIER DAY ACROSS THE AREA. THE HIGH HAS HELPED TO LIFT THE LOW CIGS FROM THE MORNING. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST THEY ALL DEPICT THE DEPARTURE OF THE MAIN TROUGH TO THE EAST THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING WHILE RIDGING SLOWLY BUILDS NORTHEAST.
356 PM EDT WED JUL 15 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY.
124 PM EDT WED JUL 15 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A FEW LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS AND LESS HUMID AIR.
239 PM EDT WED JUL 15 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY SHUNT SOME DRY AND COOLER AIR OVER THE REGION FOR TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING THROUGH THE 50S AS THE HIGH SLIDES OVER THE AREA. FLAT RIDGING IS FORECAST TO SUPPORT FURTHER TEMPERATURE AND HUMIDITY MODERATION. WARM ADVECTION/RISING HEIGHTS IN RESPONSE TO PLAINS TROUGHING ARE EXPECTED TO DRIVE TEMPERATURES ABOVE THE AVERAGES FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE NEW WEEK.
500MB RIDGE ACROSS TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE LITTLE IF ANY TONIGHT THROUGH THURS NIGHT. SOME LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE LOWER TEXAS COAST THURSDAY SO WILL MENTION ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE CWA THURS MORNING.
617 PM EDT WED JUL 15 2015 A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL STALL NEAR THE AREA TONIGHT.
340 PM EDT WED JUL 15 2015 HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVERNIGHT. WITH THE COOLER AIR AND CLEARING.
323 PM CDT WED JUL 15 2015 TSTMS ERUPTED IN SE ND ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND IN AREA WITH ML CAPES IN THE 3000-4000 J/KG RANGE AS SFC TEMPS HIT 90F AND DEW PTS IN THE LOW 70S.
345 PM EDT WED JUL 15 2015 HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVERNIGHT. WITH THE COOLER AIR AND CLEARING.
1245 PM CDT WED JUL 15 2015 HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE AREA.
336 PM EDT WED JUL 15 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE THE REGION WITH LOWER HUMIDITY AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY.
639 PM EDT WED JUL 15 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT.
THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL EXPAND EAST FROM TEXAS AND INTO THE DEEP SOUTH THROUGH THIS TIME BUMPING TROUGHINESS INTO THE WESTERN ATLC. HIGHS CONTINUE IN THE LOW TO MID 90S AREAWIDE. WINDS THRU THE COLUMN WILL DIMINISH THRU THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS A WEAK REFLECTION OF THE DEPARTING TROF KEEPS THE ATLC RIDGE AXIS FROM DRIFTING ANY FARTHER N THAN THE I-4 CORRIDOR. THE ANTICYCLONE OVER THE DEEP SOUTH WILL TRY TO MERGE WITH THE ATLC RIDGE. EVENTUALLY "MIXING IT UP" WITH THE REMNANT TROF TO EFFECTIVELY COLLAPSE THE REGIONAL PGRAD THRU THE H100-H50 LYR. ATLC RIDGE AXIS OVER THE FL STRAITS WILL SLOWLY DRIFT NWD INTO CENTRAL FL AS A DEEP TROF E OF THE APPALACHIANS PUSHES OFFSHORE AND LIFTS INTO THE N ATLC.
127 PM EDT WED JUL 15 2015 AVIATION CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL ACT TO KEEP TEMPERATURES COOLER THAN NORMAL AND THE WEATHER DRY.
ALL OF THIS CLOUD COVER IS MOVING SOUTH AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN TN INTO NE ARKANSAS. THE COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY DROP TEMPERATURES MORE. A WEAK PREFRONTAL TROUGH AXIS ALSO EXISTS THIS MORNING FROM NE AL SOUTHWEST TOWARDS COLUMBUS, MISSISSIPPI.
THIS WAVE WILL INCREASE PRESSURE GRADIENTS ACROSS THE KITTITAS VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON, WITH A PUSH OF COOLER MARINE AIR FOLLOWING THE WAVE ON THURSDAY.
1246 PM CDT WED JUL 15 2015 THE SHORT TERM IS INCREASINGLY CHARACTERIZED BY THE INFLUENCE OF THE STRONG UPPER HIGH ALOFT. AS THE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE ARCS ACROSS THE TN VALLEY WITH TIME. SO TOO WILL THE COMPASS OF THE HEAT/HUMIDITY IN THE LOWER TROPOSPHERIC AIR OVERHEAD.
THOUGH MAYBE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN LAST NIGHT.
143 PM EDT WED JUL 15 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A FEW LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS AND LESS HUMID AIR.
/ISSUED 413 AM CDT Wed Jul 15 2015/ (Today and Tonight) With upper level high pressure centered over Texas, hot and dry conditions will continue.
404 PM EDT WED JUL 15 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CHARGE.
405 PM EDT WED JUL 15 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
1145 AM MDT WED JUL 15 2015 UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH THAT WAS NEAR THE WESTERN IDAHO BORDER AT 9 AM.
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER IN NORTHERN SECTIONS TODAY IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE AS THE MIDLEVEL TROUGH EXITS AND SOME DRIER AIR ADVECTS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH.
WITH A COUPLE STRONG/SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE OVER THE FAR ERN PLAINS ALONG THE HIGHER CAPE AXIS. WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY IN TROUGH DEPTH FOR LATE IN THE WEEKEND.
DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS FEATURE A BROAD TROUGH COMPLEX SPINS ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS REMAINS SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH. THE FLORIDA KEYS ARE NORTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS.
351 PM EDT WED JUL 15 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT.
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER AND JUST TO THE EAST OF TEXAS THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
344 PM EDT WED JUL 15 2015 A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL STALL NEAR THE AREA TONIGHT.
157 PM EDT WED JUL 15 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH TODAY INTO THURSDAY KEEPING THE WEATHER BENIGN.
535 PM EDT WED JUL 15 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL KEEP WEATHER QUIET OVERNIGHT. AMPLIFICATION OF UPR AIR PATTERN OCRG TO THE WEST IN SHORT TERM PERIOD AS CLOSED LOW FORMING OVER ALBERTA WITH ASSOCIATED TROF DIGGING INTO THE WRN CONUS. THIS SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN RATHER STRONG LOW LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION AND SUBSEQUENT MODERATE MAINLY ELEVATED DESTABILIZATION AS UVM ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHRTWV/WARM FRONT OVERSPREAD THE AREA. WK CDFNT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL STALL OVER SRN MI BY FRI MORNING AS IT BECOMES PARALLEL TO ZONAL FLOW ALOFT NORTH OF STRONG SRN CONUS UPR RIDGE.
132 PM EDT WED JUL 15 2015 A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER INLAND THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT.
SURFACE FRONT HAS DROPPED SOUTH OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE, WITH DRIER, "COOLER" AIR FILLING IN BEHIND THE FRONT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. LOOK FOR ONE MORE DAY OF NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS BEFORE THE RIDGE SLIPS TO OUR EAST AND BRINGS BACK THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY.
249 PM EDT WED JUL 15 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A FEW LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS AND LESS HUMID AIR.
A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL GRAZE THE NORTHERN PORTION OF UTAH THROUGH TONIGHT.
258 PM EDT WED JUL 15 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CHARGE.
313 PM EDT WED JUL 15 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT.
237 PM CDT WED JUL 15 2015 THE SHORT TERM IS INCREASINGLY CHARACTERIZED BY THE INFLUENCE OF THE STRONG UPPER HIGH ALOFT. AS THE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE ARCS ACROSS THE TN VALLEY WITH TIME. SO TOO WILL THE COMPASS OF THE HEAT/HUMIDITY IN THE LOWER TROPOSPHERIC AIR OVERHEAD.
LOWED MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR TONIGHT WITH THE NORMALLY COLDER SPOTS LIKELY DIPPING DOWN INTO THE LOWER 40S ONCE AGAIN (EVEN HAD A FEW UPPER 30S EARLY THIS MORNING. PREVIOUS RUNS HELD OFF THE PRECIPITATION UNTIL THE EVENING, BUT NOW THE MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO INSIST THAT THE MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION ALONG THE WARM FRONT AND PRODUCE THUNDERSTORMS. THE ONLY INSTABILITY WITH THIS IS THE 0-3 KM MU CAPES SHOWING SOME INSTABILITY AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION.
144 PM EDT WED JUL 15 2015 A COLD FRONT LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN OHIO WILL CLEAR THE STATE THIS MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH.
AN INITIAL LEAD SHRT WV AND ASSOCIATED SFC INVERTED TROUGH WILL LIFT FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MID-MS VALLEY TOMORROW AND BE ABLE TO TAP INTO A DEEP MOIST LAYER TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS SRN MN INTO CENTRAL AND NRN WI. TRAILING TROUGH WILL LAG BEHIND AND TO THE NORTH OVER THE DAKOTAS AND NRN MN. A NARROW WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND INTO THE TWIN PORTS.
TEMPS ARE IN THE LOWER 70S WITH VARIABLE WINDS. ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA WHERE ML CAPE IS THE HIGHEST. DIURNAL HEATING COMBINED WITH THE WAVE COULD ALLOW FOR A SHOWER/STORM OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE BLACK HILLS.
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AS THE 500MB RIDGE ACROSS THE STATE CONTINUES TO PROVIDE SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE AREA. WITH A 1012 MB HIGH PRESSURE AREA ALSO OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF. INCHED HIGH TEMPERATURES ABOVE GUIDANCE HERE AND THERE TO REFLECT THE EFFECTS OF PERSISTENT RIDGING AND ONGOING TRENDS.
237 PM EDT WED JUL 15 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR 126 PM CDT WED JUL 15 2015 HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES ACROSS THE MID SOUTH. NORTHWEST FLOW IS MORE OVER WESTERN TENNESSEE TODAY BUT THE HIGH WILL MOVE TO THE EAST ON THURSDAY.
1226 PM CDT WED JUL 15 2015 VFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST AS TERMINALS WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE. 00Z UPPER-AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS THE RIDGE REMAINS CENTERED ACROSS EAST TEXAS/ARKLATEX REGION PLACING US UNDER THE NORTHWESTERN QUARTER OF THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD BE FAIRLY CLOSE TO WHAT WE SAW YESTERDAY AS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE LOCATION OR STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE KEEPS CONDITIONS PRETTY MUCH STATUS QUO. JORDAN THE HOT CONDITIONS OF LATE WILL PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES TO EXERT THE GREATEST INFLUENCE ON OUR WEATHER LOCALLY. THE CENTER OF THE UPPER HIGH HAS SHIFTED EASTWARD FROM THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS AND IS PROGGED TO REMAIN ANCHORED OVER EAST TEXAS INTO THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ON INTO THE WEEKEND.
A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING AS A RESULT OF AN UPPER LOW AND TROUGH MOVING ONTO THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST.
310 PM CDT WED JUL 15 2015 TONIGHT: CONVECTIVE INITIATION IS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING ALONG THE LEE TROUGH AXIS FROM WESTERN KANSAS THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. OTHER STRONG-SEVERE STORMS ARE LIKELY NEAR WARM FRONT FROM SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA THROUGH WEST-CENTRAL MISSOURI WHERE SHEAR AND INSTABILITY ARE PROGGED TO BE MUCH STRONGER.
UNCERTAINTIES WITH THE EXACT POSITION OF LEE TROUGH AS WELL AS ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE IMPLICATIONS FOR THE WIND FORECAST. WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY BE SOUTHERLY AT ALL SITES WITH THE HIGHEST SPEEDS UP TO 15 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EARLY THIS MORNING WATER VAPOR SHOWED A MID-UPPER HIGH CENTERED OVER NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS WITH PLUME OF DEEP MOISTURE CONTINUING TO MOVE NORTHWARD ON ITS WESTERN PERIPHERY. THE UPPER HIGH WILL DRIFT SLIGHTLY FURTHER EAST BUT MID LEVEL HEIGHT TRENDS ARE NEUTRAL INTO THE NIGHT.
609 PM EDT WED JUL 15 2015 AVIATION HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER MICHIGAN TONIGHT PROVIDING CLEAR SKIES AND ENABLING TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS WILL ARRIVE LATE THURSDAY ALONG WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS THURSDAY NIGHT.
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM EASTERN NEBRASKA. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS CENTERED OVER TEXAS. A FEW SUBTLE MONSOON-TYPE IMPULSES WERE MOVING NORTH ON THE WESTERN RIDGE PERIPHERY. IS LOCATED ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS LOCATED OVER PRIMARILY NORTHWEST KANSAS. ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER NORTHWEST KANSAS POSES THE HIGHEST THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER. WITH LESS CLOUD COVER AND THE RIDGE BUILDING. FORECAST HIGHS TOMORROW ARE GENERALLY 3-5 DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY IN MOST LOCATIONS. THEY INDICATE A NUMBER OF 500 MB SHORT WAVE TROUGHS THAT COULD PROVIDE AMPLE ASCENT FOR STORMS.
GENERALLY S WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED UNDER THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. AS THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTHEAST.
AND TRENDS FROM HIGH-RESOLUTION GUIDANCE I'VE SHIFTED THE HIGHEST POPS TO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF CENTRAL ALABAMA WITH LESSER CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES. TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWEST 700MB ARE ACTUALLY COOLER THIS MORNING WHICH WILL LEAD TO HIGHER LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES THIS AFTERNOON.
321 PM CDT Wed Jul 15 2015 (Tonight and Thursday) High pressure aloft centered over East Texas will remain the dominant influence across the region through Thursday. Skies will be clear through the period, with lows tonight in the lower 70s and highs Thursday mainly in the upper 90s. (Thursday Night through Wednesday) An upper level high pressure ridge will control the weather across Texas for the next several days.
HANGING ON IN THE NORTHEAST CORNER WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE A LITTLE COOLER. ONE AREA THAT COULD GET A BIT MORE IS THE CORNER DUE TO THE HIGHER DEW POINTS. CURRENT FORECAST OF HIGHS A FEW DEGREES WARMER LOOKS GOOD.
5" OVER THE CENTRAL RIDGES TO 2+ INCHES OVER THE NW ALLEGHENIES/LAUREL HIGHLANDS. TO BETWEEN 20 AND 25 F HEADING SE TWD THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.
THE CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS FROM THE MID AND UPPER 50S ALONG THE RED RIVER TO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION LOOK GOOD.
A SHALLOW LAYER OF NORTHEAST BREEZES GIVES WAY TO SOUTHWESTERLIES IN THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE. DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE LOWER 60S.
313 PM CST TUE JAN 12 2016 ARCTIC COLD FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE PLAINS IS STARTING TO RETREAT TO THE NORTHEAST AS A WARM FRONT. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS WITH A TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS WILL SHIFT EAST WITH THE RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE ROCKIES BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
/ISSUED 419 AM CST TUE JAN 12 2016/ WV IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWING MUCH OF THE ERN 2/3 OF THE CONUS UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL TROF. AND THE WRN 1/3 UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE.
HIGH PRESSURE PASSING OVERHEAD WILL LEAD TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH TONIGHT. MID TO HIGH CLOUDS AND LIGHT RAIN IS STREAM FROM NORTH MEXICO ACROSS LOWER ACADIANA AND THE NOLA METRO AHEAD OF A SHORT WAVE THAT EXTENDS FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY BACK TO SOUTHERN CA WHERE AN UPPER LOW IS DEVELOPING.
WARMER AIR REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT KEEPING LOWS RELATIVELY MILD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
328 PM CST TUE JAN 12 2016 PLENTY OF STRATUS POURED ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TODAY AS A COLD FRONT STRETCHED ACROSS CENTRAL NEBRASKA INTO SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS. ALREADY SOME SIGNS ON SATELLITE OF THIS FRONT SLOWLY BEGINNING TO INCH EASTWARD AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS MORE WESTERLY ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. WITH WARMER AIR ADVECTING ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA OVERNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE LOWER 40S ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA TO NEAR 60 IN SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT IN NORTHERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA HAVE DECREASED AND ARE GENERALLY FROM THE EAST.
WHILE FRONTAL FORCING IS FAIRLY STRONG ALONG THE LOWER LEVEL BOUNDARY. BUY WITH DENDRITIC TEMPERATURES FAIRLY DEEP IT SHOULD NOT BE TOO DIFFICULT TO GET AT LEAST FLURRIES AS THE LOW TO MID LEVEL THERMAL GRADIENT SPREADS EAST. BY TONIGHT A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH AND WINDS GRADUALLY TURN TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST. WARMING TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND TREND TOWARD MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL ALLOW A MUCH MILDER DAY.
248 PM CST TUE JAN 12 2016 A NICE DAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE IS OVER OVERHEAD.
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING IS FORECAST TO BUILD OVER THE CWA TODAY AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH WED.
ON WEDNESDAY A WEAK TROUGH WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS AND COOLER WEATHER ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.