Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
A low pressure system will be pushing off to the east of the local area this evening. In the wake of this system, high pressure will build in for the middle parts of the week.
Any low clouds that may return will burn off quickly and high temps on Tue will be about 10 degrees warmer than today. This pattern of morning mstr/low clouds will persist for the next few days including the warming trend as mid level heights slowly increase and as the low level thermal ridge expands eastward from SE NM/Upper Trans Pecos.
The low level streamline trajectories are now becoming more orientated to the northeast, edging down from dry high pressure in south central Canada. In fact the low to mid level baroclinic zone is quite sharp west of I 29 denoting a warm front aloft. Light snow over south central SD and the lower James River Valley will wind down on Tuesday morning as forcing wanes. Highs will range from the lower 20s in heavier snow covered areas to the upper 20s through the Missouri River corridor where less snow fell.
338 PM MDT Mon Mar 13 2017 A moderate northwesterly flow aloft will be over the region tonight with ridge to the west. The airmass will become increasingly stable and high pressure increase at the surface and aloft.
Stratus continues to hang on behind cold front across the Trans Pecos this afternoon and southwesterly flow returns overnight with respectable low level jet and isentropic lift. /issued 334 AM CDT Mon Mar 13 2017/ Another back door cold front is pushing west/southwest through our CWA overnight. Temps will climb into the low 60s across our area and should end up being a tad cooler than normal. A western CONUS ridge/eastern CONUS trough will generally be maintained through the week, although the pattern will shift eastward late in the week bringing the upper ridge over the Plains states. After this morning's cold front the next cold front is still expected to be of the backdoor variety.
For now, will continue the high PoPs and the winter weather headlines as is in the eastern counties, as this potential band will be close enough to affect the far southeast counties.
A ridge of high pressure over the region will result in continued dry weather conditions along with warm daytime temperatures.
Temps are climbing nowhere fast across much of the area so knocked about 5 degrees or more off the highs where the precipitation has occurred and to the west. The precipitation moving into the Midsouth is the product of a clipper type trough quickly approaching the Mississippi River valley. By sunset the trough axis should be centered over middle Tennessee and Alabama resulting in dry conditions across the Midsouth.
1130 AM MDT Mon Mar 13 2017 Dry northwest flow aloft behind yesterday's system will result in cooler temperatures today, especially for the southeast plains where maxTs will top out in the lower 60s vs yesterday's lower 70 readings. Meanwhile, mountain areas will remain breezy to windy through the day, particularly over the exposed ridges and peaks where gusts up to 50 mph will be possible in the afternoon. Surface lee trof redevelops tonight which should result in warmer overnight lows along the lower eastern slopes/I-25 corridor where westerly winds develop.
248 PM CDT Mon Mar 13 2017 19Z water vapor imagery shows northwest flow over the northern Rockies and Great Plains with an upper ridge centered over southern CA. At the surface, a cold high pressure system was ridging though the plains with the cold front pushing through south TX. Lows tonight are expected to remain in the 20s with cloud cover preventing much of a drop off as the ridge axis passes through with weakening winds.
Far eastern areas may not see the thicker clouds, and thus they could see readings drop into the lower single digits before daybreak. Sprawling high pressure across Minnesota and Iowa will make for another chilly night over those deeper snow covered areas, with some likely below zero readings in parts of SW MN and northwest IA.
As temperatures fall to freezing or just below, a few places mainly along the Cumberland Plateau could see a rain/snow mix after midnight to all light snow early Tuesday morning.
Deepening mid-continental upper trough deepens further through the day as it shifts into the eastern U. Some potential for accumulation in the higher elevations before sunrise Tuesday, but right now amounts look light.
551 PM CDT Mon Mar 13 2017 A cold front will continue to move southeastward across southeastern Louisiana bringing a line of light showers into the forecast area through the evening hours today. High Pressure will bring dry conditions from Tuesday through the end of the work week with temperatures running about 10 degrees below normal through the period.
After a period of lake effect snow during mid-week and brief high pressure at the end of the week, an unsettled pattern will return. The high QPF seems on-order in the east where the greatest 8H easterly wind anomalies point.
408 PM EDT Mon Mar 13 2017 Low pressure will move from Kentucky to the East Coast tonight, bringing accumulating snow. Snow showers may linger on Tuesday in the cold northerly flow behind the low.
The cold front has made it through all TAF sites with NE winds prevailing late this morning. /issued 234 AM CDT Mon Mar 13 2017/ A cold front is moving into the Permian Basin this morning and will be through most areas by noon. Weak cold air advection behind the front will not be enough to offset the increase in insolation over what occurred yesterday so highs today will actually be slightly warmer than yesterday despite the frontal passage. An upper level ridge currently over the west coast of the U.
/Issued 1117 AM CDT Mon Mar 13 2017/ Strong low level cold advection is ongoing behind front, with temperatures only in the low to mid 30s across far northeast Oklahoma late this morning.
Have lowered the highs today. Winds behind the cold front will be gusty at times this evening. /issued 337 AM CDT Mon Mar 13 2017/ A low pressure system is currently moving across the northwestern Gulf of Mexico this morning. A few showers are developing along the coast this morning, and expect more showers to develop today in response to the low and also a front pushing southward towards the area. Most of our activity will come from the low pressure to the south. The aforementioned cold front will push through the area tonight bringing with it much cooler temperatures especially in the overnight hours.
No significant impacts are expected as only 1-4" of snow is expected in NE-N wind snowbelts, highest over the higher terrain of north-central Upper MI.
A strong baroclinic zone extends across western North Dakota between the arctic high and the milder air across Montana developing from a chinook flow that will play an important role in light freezing rain Tuesday night. The snow will end Tuesday morning then a stronger push of warm air aloft Tuesday afternoon will bring a slight chance for rain or freezing rain far west. A better chance for freezing rain will spread across west and central North Dakota Tuesday night.
Highs will be around 10 degrees warmer at most locations on Tuesday. Significant warm advection aloft will create a wintry mix on Tuesday night with some light freezing rain or snow possible over parts of western South Dakota.
Meanwhile, an approaching cold front will bring more light rain showers to the area later this evening. Highs on Tuesday will range from the low to mid 50s inland to low 60s near the coast. Lows tonight will fall into the low 40s inland mid and upper 40s along the coast.
As diurnal mixing of the low-level atmosphere transports southwesterly flow aloft down to the surface, this front should drift slowly NE'ward as a warm front and near the Havre area by late this afternoon.
High pressure at the surface and aloft will keep conditions dry and unseasonably warm over central California through the end of the week. The upper level ridge is centered over central California this afternoon with temperatures running 2-3 degrees above yesterday at this time. With the ridge over the region keeping skies mostly clear with light winds, some haze and patchy fog is possible over portions of the San Joaquin Valley tonight. The ridge will remain over the region Tuesday and temperatures will warm another few degrees.
146 PM PDT Mon Mar 13 2017 High pressure aloft will continue dry and very warm days inland this week, while the marine layer and weak onshore flow keeps the coast cooler, with areas of low clouds and fog. Slightly cooler by midweek as a weak low pressure trough weakens the ridge and increases onshore flow.
A cold front acrs NW LA into E TX will progress southeast through the area this aftn, bringing a reinforcement of northwest winds 8-13 KT. Otherwise, the overall forecast remains on track with a dry cold front expected to pass through the area this afternoon and into this evening. Considerable MVFR cloudiness will persist today ahead of a cold front that will be advancing across the forecast area. Temps are also running a bit warmer as clouds have helped to keep temps up a bit. A Canadian high centered over southern Canada will push a fast moving cold front currently located in Oklahoma into the coastal waters by this evening.
Swath of light to moderate rain showers ahead of an approaching cold front currently extends from Central Tennessee into the northwest half of Alabama and back into Mississippi. Wrap around clouds will linger into the day on Tuesday as the upper low moves across the Great Lakes and the corresponding trough across Eastern Conus.
Today Through Tuesday Night A short wave trough will move thorugh Arkansas today. The west coast upper ridge will remain parked over the west through Tuesday. Northwest flow will continue over Arkansas as a closed low develops over the Ohio River Valley. A cold front will accompany the short wave today. Canadian high pressure will build over the area with dry weather Monday night through Tuesday night. and more widespread freezing temperatures across the north and central sections Tuesday night. and highs Tuesday will be cooler in the lower 40s to mid 50s.
VFR conditions to prevail through mid to late afternoon ahead of widespread showers and storms associated with a low pressure system over the Gulf of Mexico. A prolonged period of MVFR to IFR cigs appears probable with the storms, and also behind a surging cold front as winds become northwesterly. This activity will likely slowly lift northward with the warm front through the afternoon before more widespread showers and storms develop over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. A complex forecast period is expected as a low pressure system moves across the region in the next 24 hours. Southeast winds this morning will become southwesterly this afternoon and shift to the northwest in the wake of a cold front late tonight into early Tuesday.
With southerly winds ahead of the precipitation, temperatures have already recovered into the low 40s for the majority of the area despite the cloud cover.
The coast will have overnight fog and cooler temperatures this week in onshore flow.
High pressure will dominate much of the western states this week.
301 PM PDT Mon Mar 13 2017 High pressure at the surface and aloft will keep conditions dry and unseasonably warm over central California through the end of the week. The upper level ridge is centered over central California this afternoon with temperatures running 2-3 degrees above yesterday at this time. With the ridge over the region keeping skies mostly clear with light winds, some haze and patchy fog is possible over portions of the San Joaquin Valley tonight. The ridge will remain over the region Tuesday and temperatures will warm another few degrees.
A cold front will move through the area this morning, resulting in gusty northeast winds of 10 to 15 mph. /issued 457 AM CDT Mon Mar 13 2017/ (Today and Tonight) Extensive cloud cover will continue through much of the morning hours, but will get scoured out by late morning or early afternoon as a cold front moves through West Central Texas.
446 PM MDT Mon Mar 13 2017 The front edge of the ridge is sliding across the Rockies this afternoon and denoted by the high level cloudiness dropping southward. The energy over the Great Lakes and Southeast will be merging into the Nor'Easter over the next 24 hours and this will allow the ridge to amplify and expand eastward. This will not only raise heights over our region but push the high cloudiness to the east.
418 PM EDT Mon Mar 13 2017 Low pressure will move from Kentucky to the East Coast tonight, bringing accumulating snow. Snow showers may linger on Tuesday in the cold northerly flow behind the low.
Issued by National Weather Service Memphis TN 350 PM CDT Mon Mar 13 2017 Cold front moved through the state today and has ushered in some cold temperatures for the next few days as a cold air mass settles in over the state of Arkansas. Tonight temperatures will be near or below freezing for the northern portions of the state. Not sure how long the temperatures will be below freezing so only have issued a freeze warning for the northern tiers of the counties. Some areas to just south may need to be expanded into the warning, however, don't think freezing temperatures will last more than an hour or so in these areas.
High pressure will dominate our weather this week, with temperatures well above average and generally dry conditions for Southeast Arizona. High pressure aloft will continued to result in dry conditions and well above normal high temperatures.
High pressure building in from the west combined with 500mb vorticity moving across the northern Rockies will maintain a moderate surface pressure gradient across southeast Wyoming today and Tuesday.
302 PM CDT Mon Mar 13 2017 Analysis at 2 PM CDT shows slow clearing with cold Canadian high pressure moving into the region as storm has moved to the southeast.
359 PM CDT Mon Mar 13 2017 An upper ridge over the Intermountain West Region tonight through the middle of the week will allow for a dry northwesterly upper flow across the Panhandles. The upper ridge will build east across the Panhandles and Plains States by late in the week.
303 PM MDT Mon Mar 13 2017 The front edge of the ridge is sliding across the Rockies this afternoon and denoted by the high level cloudiness dropping southward. The energy over the Great Lakes and Southeast will be merging into the Nor'Easter over the next 24 hours and this will allow the ridge to amplify and expand eastward. This will not only raise heights over our region but push the high cloudiness to the east.
Warm and dry conditions will dominate the week ahead as high pressure lingers over the Southwest. A ridge of high pressure will hold strong over the region through Tuesday with mostly clear skies, fairly light winds and well above normal temperatures.
Strong PNA is established Tuesday, with strong dry NW flow aloft over Kansas, between 585 dm high pressure ridge over Mexico and deep cold 520 dm cyclone over the Great Lakes.
/12Z TAFS/ LIFR ceilings with fog reducing visibilities down to 1 SM and patchy drizzle will continue at the I-35 TAF sites until about 15-16Z when a pre-frontal trough will move through the region. Visibilities and ceilings will improve to MVFR between 16-17Z with conditions improving to VFR by 18Z at DRT and 20Z for the I-35 TAF sites once the reinforcing cold front moves through. A weak cold front will move into the northern CWA later this morning and through southern areas midday. Partial clearing does take place today in the mid to late afternoon, but still cool temps across northern and eastern areas with highs only in the low to mid 60s. Mostly sunny and warmer on Tuesday with highs in the low to mid 70s.
Went to the cooler side of guidance to the south, and slightly warmer to the north and across the Twin Cities Metro. The mean long wave pattern remains progressive with a weak upper ridge moving across the Rockies and into the Northern Plains/Upper Midwest for later this week.
246 PM CDT Mon Mar 13 2017 A cold front moved through the area early today. Ahead of the high some flurries will be possible across portions of southeastern Kansas and western Missouri, but again no accumulations will occur.
Cold again on Tue with highs in the lower 30s central IL and mid 30s in southeast IL.
The mid-level wave that's supposed to move through in northwest flow later tonight can be inferred in water vapor imagery to be moving into southern Alberta at this time, rounding the top of the western CONUS upper level ridge.
222 PM EDT Mon Mar 13 2017 Periods of snow will accumulate between 1 and 4 inches across the region today into tonight as low pressure tracks southeast through the Ohio Valley. Highs today will only recover into the upper 20s and low 30s, with lows tonight falling back into the low to mid 20s.
Mostly cloudy skies cover the remainder of the Mid-South with temperatures in the lower 40s for the most part. The cold front is beginning to push into Northeast AR as winds are starting to shift to the NW. Low clouds will likely remain over the region overnight which will help keep temps up but cold air advection may be strong enough to drop temps below freezing across the northern tier of counties. The latest MOS and mesoscale data points to counties along the KY/MO border dipping to freezing, or just below for a couple of hours late tonight into early Tuesday despite cloud cover.
A cold front will move through the area tonight and bring a round of rain and snow to the area tonight. Generally we expect to see snowfall amounts above 3000 feet, but can't rule out a few flurries in some of the lower elevations. Wrap around moisture could continue to bring light snowfall to the higher terrain into Tuesday/Tuesday night. Will be some lingering snow showers/flurries into Tuesday night, and temps will drop well below freezing entire area.
143 PM MST Mon Mar 13 2017 Strong high pressure will dominate much of the western states through this weekend.
There will be a gradient of temps across the region today as a warm front lifts north through at least a portion of the area. Southern IN will top out in the lower 40s while east central KY will see highs around 50. For Tuesday afternoon an upper level trough will dig across the region.
Water vapor imagery showed a cyclone digging southeast into the Ozarks this afternoon. High clouds are expected to thin out enough to allow temperatures to drop well into the lower to mid 20s. With the cold start to Tuesday and the surface wind flow out of the southeast, effectively recirculating the cold air around the western periphery of the high, it will take a number of hours in the morning to warm up, but once we hit early afternoon and insolation works on the lower troposphere, temperatures should recover nicely, with temperatures topping out around 70 at Elkhart.
SHORT TERM (Tonight through Tuesday Night): Deep northerly flow continues behind the cold front, with moisture trapped under inversion at 1500 feet. Latest satellite imagery shows drier air already beginning to erode out the low level clouds, with main surface dry air just to the north, which will sweep into the region overnight.
401 PM CDT Mon Mar 13 2017 Cold front continues to rapidly move through the CWA and should clear all of our counties and parishes by 00z this evening. Below freezing temperatures will be possible across Southeast Oklahoma and adjacent portions of Southwest Arkansas tonight/early Tuesday morning.
Subjective 12Z upper-air analysis indicates an upper- level trough extending from the western Great Lakes through IA/MO and toward the Arklatex. A 120kt north-northwesterly jet streak extended through the Dakotas behind the trough, with 105kt as far south as western KS.
Lows tonight are expected to fall into the lower to middle 20s.
417 PM EDT Mon Mar 13 2017 Snow will taper off early this evening as low pressure over the Ohio Valley moves east.
High temperatures over the far western sections of the forecast area in east central Colorado will reach into the lower 70s on Tuesday afternoon while north central Kansas and south central Nebraska remain in the 40s. As the cooler area of high pressure begins to move off to the east on Tuesday, a trough of lower pressure deepens in the lee of the Rockies along the front range where breezy north to northwest winds and drier conditions are expected.
Temps are all above freezing now with some 40s peeking into our southeast. However temps will again reach Lows in the lower 30s or upper 20s tonight, even with predominance of cyclone induced cloud cover. The real blast of cold air and cooling w/clearing comes tmrw night, and is repeated Wed night, as Canadian High pressure works across the Mississippi and Tennessee valleys.
The short-term period begins this evening with a long-wave upper- level pattern across CONUS and Canada, with a trough in the East and a ridge in the West. With warmer air surging in from the southwest, temperatures will not fall much tonight from highs today.
However as temperatures cool overnight there will be a chance for freezing rain across mainly Carter and Fallon counties tomorrow night.
A more robust wave will work into the region by Tuesday aftn and begin pushing the arctic boundary ewd as a warm front. A significant amount of warm advection atop the retreating arctic boundary will lead to thermal profiles conducive for freezing rain, especially on the SD plains to the north/east of the Blkhls. At this time, QPF amounts looks rather minor, but subsequent shifts will need to monitor to see if any highlights become necessary for the freezing rain. High temps on Tuesday will reach well into the 50s from nern WY into far swrn SD as the warm front moves through, with temps remaining cold further to the east. Temps Tuesday night may actually rise over far wrn SD as the warm front pushes through.
Meanwhile, with ridge axis to the north will provide light winds from the north to northeast during the period with thermal trof settling into the state. In addition, some clearing will occur in the north and northeast where snow is deepest so anticipate even cooler temperatures there.
350 PM CDT Mon Mar 13 2017 As of 3PM, a reinforcing cold front currently extends across the northern portion of the CWA resulting in areas of showers across Vernon, Rapides, and Avoyelles Parishes. Therefore, while not included in the forecast package, a rumble or two of thunder can't be ruled out as the cold front and associated showers continue to progress southeastward over the next several hours.
/issued 430 AM CDT Mon Mar 13 2017/ Influence from high amplitude s/wv trough will continue to progress quickly south and east over the region this morning. Gusty northerly winds expected through the day today behind cold front.
A chilly night looks to be in store tonight, especially for the northern zones in the wake of the reinforcing cold front passage today. A north/south oriented pressure gradient will set up in the afternoon keeping locations on the Plateau breezy, but otherwise warmer and mostly clear skies will be in store for the region.
A warmer day for Tuesday as upper-level ridging builds into the region, and H7 temps climb into the 0C to +2C range. There is potential for 60 degree readings over the high plains, but high clouds may still be rather thick with the upper jet to the northeast. That being said, the current forecast may be a bit optimistic but overall expect to see a warmer column.
With a dry airmass in place, temperatures by early Tuesday morning will be near or well below freezing across most of Oklahoma and perhaps western north Texas. This will keep most of Oklahoma cool/mild, but warmer temperatures are expected across southwest Oklahoma and western north Texas.
and Tuesday Low pressure over northern Missouri should move towards the Ohio Valley based on pressure falls and model forecasts.
Our area will be under northwest flow aloft tonight and Tuesday, with an upper trough deepening over the eastern CONUS, and an upper ridge over the southwestern states. Going with overnight lows mostly in the lower 40s across the western half of our area, except mid 40s for our southwestern counties where low cloud cover should redevelop overnight. Mostly sunny skies and warmer temperatures are in store for west central Texas on Tuesday.