Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
/issued 226 PM CST Wed Jan 29 2020/ A couple of weak southern stream upper level troughs are on the way to visit west Texas and southeast New Mexico in the short term. Forecast soundings indicate the potential for light rain, light freezing rain and light snow Thursday morning. By afternoon precipitation should be all liquid except in the Davis Mountains and portions of the lower Trans Pecos where a light mix will continue to be possible. Precipitation chances should decrease Thursday evening as the trough axis moves east of the region.
414 PM MST Wed Jan 29 2020 Current surface map places trof across central Montana into Wyoming. With weak boundary layer flow overnight, may see some patchy fog/freezing fog.
Persistence forecast in play across SE MI through the mid week period as a stubborn inversion layer holds around 800mb, maintaining the current stratus deck, while very little temperature advection is observed in the low-levels.
351 PM CST Wed Jan 29 2020 An upper-level trough is moving through the Mid-South with the associate low-pressure system over the eastern Gulf. However, the chance for seeing rain showers has decreased and will continue to do so as the trough pushes east. High pressure can be seen upstream on surface analysis charts and is expected to build over the next couple of days. With northernly flow and mostly cloudy skies, temperatures will only reach the low 40s to upper 50s.
711 PM EST Wed Jan 29 2020 High pressure north of the region will move east tonight under an overcast sky.
The low pressure will continue its drift, reaching the Atlantic waters after midnight. Temps tonight will cool to the lower to mid 50s across most of east central FL, except with the coastal communities of the Treasure Coast where lows will remain in the upper 50s/around 60. On Thu, these will warm to the lower to mid 70s.
551 PM CST Wed Jan 29 2020 An upper ridge will build over Arkansas tonight. However, the low level inversion and abundant moisture as seen on the latest sounding will keep the clouds and fog from departing.
This high PoP/low QPF scenario will move east by this evening. Behind this upper wave, light winds and near saturated low level airmass is leading to areas of fog (not dense) and freezing drizzle (light mist). Fargo is now reporting freezing drizzle. Most reports indicate this freezing drizzle is leading to windshields icing up, with most parking lots/roads not much impacted. Upper level trough slowly propagates through the region tonight into the day on Thursday. Current observations upstream in Canada are freezing drizzle. Mid-levels do dry out so freezing drizzle does become more likely where precipitation does occur. Will issue an SPS to cover the possibility of impactful freezing drizzle tonight and also to increase awareness for the current freezing drizzle situation.
602 PM EST Wed Jan 29 2020 Lingering flurries and patchy freezing drizzle will remain possible through Thursday under cloudy skies. High temperatures will hover right around freezing, with lows in the upper 20s.
710 PM EST Wed Jan 29 2020 Surface storm system centered in the NE Gulf early this evening pushing area of showers with a few embedded thunderstorms into SE Gulf and SW FL ahead of the cold front. Cold front to sweep over the FL Peninsula overnight with rain ending shortly thereafter and high pressure filtering into the region. Area of convection in SE Gulf moving ashore producing MVFR cigs/vsbys in SW FL terminals ahead of cold front. Latest buoy reports showing light winds and seas in E Gulf waters this evening ahead of the cold front that will move through the area tonight. These seas will slowly weaken and move into the E Gulf waters overnight and Thursday likely in the 4-6 ft range as high pressure builds into the region Thursday.
A low level temperature inversion overnight will keep the region socked in under a blanket of low stratus, keeping the low levels moist while the mid and upper levels dry out overnight. Temperatures will dip into the mid 20s tonight, increasing the chance for freezing fog. While a lack of a consistent signal in the high resolution models keeps confidence low for freezing drizzle overnight, only a little ascent will be necessary to produce freezing drizzle across the area and so it remains a possibility.
High pressure over the southern plains will maintain a N-NE flow over the region tonight. Weak upper level ridging over the NW Gulf will become zonal tonight and and eventually SW on Thursday as an upper level low moves toward southern New Mexico. Weak isentropic upglide coupled with modest lift on the east side of the upper trough should yield some light rain by afternoon with the higher rain chances closer to the coast.
617 PM EST Wed Jan 29 2020 Lingering flurries and patchy freezing drizzle will remain possible through Thursday under cloudy skies. High temperatures will hover right around freezing, with lows in the upper 20s.
221 PM MST Wed Jan 29 2020 Current surface map places trof across central Montana into Wyoming. With weak boundary layer flow overnight, may see some patchy fog/freezing fog.
/issued 351 PM CST Wed Jan 29 2020/ An upper-level trough is moving through the Mid-South with the associate low-pressure system over the eastern Gulf. However, the chance for seeing rain showers has decreased and will continue to do so as the trough pushes east. High pressure can be seen upstream on surface analysis charts and is expected to build over the next couple of days. With northernly flow and mostly cloudy skies, temperatures will only reach the low 40s to upper 50s.
A ridge of high pressure will then keep conditions quiet for the rest of today. In addition model soundings do show a small chance of freezing drizzle mixing in with the flurries at times.
with the latest snotels in the Blue Mountains being above freezing to 5500 feet.
An upper low pressure system over central Arizona is forecast to push to the southeast tonight and into north-central Mexico on Thursday. At the surface, ridging is expected to dominate the region tonight into Thursday with clouds increasing through the period as mid level moisture arrives from the west and low level moisture is trapped below a warmer air mass/cap inversion.
The low pressure system currently off the coast of Pensacola Florida, which is bringing rain showers to the area is expected to quickly move through the region tonight. Overnight lows will generally fall to around the low to mid 40s across the region, with only our southern most Big Bend counties potentially staying in the low 50s. The upper levels are expected to remain progressive through the weekend as the next low pressure system starts to impact the region Thursday night. Highs will remain seasonable with temperatures reaching the low to mid 60s.
Additionally, light freezing mist/drizzle is occurring across portions of east central North Dakota. The boundary layer is rather stagnant with weak flow and plenty of moisture, so freezing mist/drizzle seems likely through tomorrow morning across the Turtle Mountains and James River Valley. A warming trend begins on Friday as a large upper level ridge begins building across the Northern Plains.
Forecast is in good shape but did add a mention of patchy freezing fog mainly across parts of northeast OK.
332 AM EST Thu Jan 30 2020 High pressure centered near New England will move off the Atlantic coast on Friday.
1009 PM MST Wed Jan 29 2020 Current surface map places trof across central Montana into Wyoming. With weak boundary layer flow overnight, may see some patchy fog/freezing fog.
333 AM EST Thu Jan 30 2020 High pressure centered near New England will move off the Atlantic coast on Friday.
/issued 710 PM EST Wed Jan 29 2020/ Surface storm system centered in the NE Gulf early this evening pushing area of showers with a few embedded thunderstorms into SE Gulf and SW FL ahead of the cold front. Cold front to sweep over the FL Peninsula overnight with rain ending shortly thereafter and high pressure filtering into the region. Area of convection in SE Gulf moving ashore producing MVFR cigs/vsbys in SW FL terminals ahead of cold front. Latest buoy reports showing light winds and seas in E Gulf waters this evening ahead of the cold front that will move through the area tonight. These seas will slowly weaken and move into the E Gulf waters overnight and Thursday likely in the 4-6 ft range as high pressure builds into the region Thursday.
3-5 inches of snow are expected there with locally around 6 possible in the favored NW flow upslope areas in the higher terrain. Sat will see even warmer temps as the thermal ridge will time over the area with breezy westerly winds.
The low level flow will continue to veer from northeast to easterly overnight. The lower ceilings/MVFR conditions will reach the western Brush Country around 12Z Thursday. Adjusted the highs down a category for the western Brush Country for Thursday.
Weak southerly flow does develop on Thursday thanks to a 500 mb trough moving around North Dakota.
Any snow accumulation will be minor (a half inch or less) and limited to the ridges. Precip chances end by late afternoon as ridging begins. A larger amplitude ridge will build on Friday, warming the region substantially into the 40s. Cyclogenesis looks to occur with crossing low pressure in the latter half of the weekend with several mechanisms contributing to sustained upward vertical motion. The ridges still look to have the best chance at seeing accumulating snow.
1250 AM EST Thu Jan 30 2020 Cloudy skies with occasional flurries or patchy freezing drizzle will continue through Friday morning.
Remaining snow is very light and should not cause any impacts due to air temps being 32F or above and road/surface temps being even warmer. Can't completely rule out some light freezing drizzle at times. Much of the area will fall below freezing tonight, so freezing fog would occur where fog becomes dense. Warmer air surges into the region late this weekend, resulting in highs in the 60s Sun and the 50s to low 60s Mon.
Highs on Thursday will be mainly in the lower 60s then lows Thursday night range from the mid 40s inland to the lower 50s at the immediate coast.
245 AM EST Thu Jan 30 2020 Once a system moves off the coast this morning, high pressure will bring dry conditions today into Friday morning.
Some of the higher elevations are seeing some light snow. CDG Chattanooga Airport, TN 57 41 52 41 52 / 0 10 40 40 20 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 52 40 52 41 49 / 10 10 40 50 40 Oak Ridge, TN 53 40 52 41 50 / 10 10 40 50 40 Tri Cities Airport, TN 49 37 51 38 47 / 10 10 40 50 50.
1020 PM EST Wed Jan 29 2020 A cold front is currently located northwest of our Gulf waters, about to pass the Pulley Ridge buoy. These cells are organized into lines in advance of the cold front. There may be a few strong thunderstorms late this evening and overnight, preceding a weak cold front that will drag across the Keys waters overnight. The front will turn up stationary near Havana late Thursday, then lift back north through the waters as a warm front on Friday and Friday night.
Near the surface, a weak lee side trough of low pressure is edging slowly east across eastern Colorado. Southwest winds at 5 to 10 mph will probably not be enough to mix the lower levels enough to discourage fog reformation. An upper level disturbance, along with 10 mph southwest winds ahead of a weak frontal boundary, should help to mix up the lower levels of the troposphere, hopefully leading to an earlier departure of the fog compared to today. An upper level trough will move across the plains Thursday night, but with only shallow moisture, precipitation is not expected. But the snow will surely still be around in patches on Friday so that temperatures in those locations will be cooler.
Although we'd prefer to see some sunshine, southerly winds will make up for it and drive temperatures about 5 degrees warmer for Thursday afternoon, resulting in temps just besting seasonal norms. Most would fall as light snow, but we'll have to watch for freezing drizzle possibility as dictated by the top-down method (no seeders).
At least, the rain will pause for a moment, but this won't last long as a longwave trough over the center of country is already taking shape.
06z 1/30/20 An upper ridge will build over Arkansas through the night. However, the low level inversion and abundant moisture as seen on the latest sounding will keep the clouds and fog from departing. Tonight Through Friday The upper trough has exited to the east, as an upper ridge moves into the region from the west. High temperatures today will be in the upper 30s in the northern part of the state, to the lower 50s in the south. High pressure will begin expanding into the region this evening, with north/northeasterly winds through Thursday morning carrying colder air into the state, bringing our Thursday morning low temperatures into the lower to upper 30s throughout the state.
With temperatures at or below freezing, some minor ice accretion will be possible on elevated surfaces. We will keep tabs on this situation closely as increasing freezing drizzle coverage or road impacts may warrant a short-fused Winter Weather Advisory. Lows tonight will again dip to around, or just below the freezing mark.
Low amplitude ridging will temporarily build in aloft in the wake of yesterday's frontal system. No rain is expected today, with highs climbing into the low to mid 60s.
A slight warmup in temperatures is expected today as prevailing southwesterly winds ahead of an approaching lee side trough draws somewhat warmer air into the high plains, pushing H85 temperatures up a few degrees. Snowpack and lingering cloud cover will likely hinder climbing temperatures in central and portions of southwest Kansas today with highs generally in the upper 30s(F) to the lower 40s(F). Under clearing skies, widespread highs in the 40s(F) to possibly the lower 50s(F) can be expected further west in west central and portions of southwest Kansas closer to the Colorado border. An upper level trough will move across the plains Thursday night, but with only shallow moisture, precipitation is not expected. But the snow will surely still be around in patches on Friday so that temperatures in those locations will be cooler.
Adjusted the highs down a category for the western Brush Country for Thursday. The low level flow will veer to northeast late this evening and easterly overnight. The lower ceilings/MVFR conditions will reach the western Brush Country around 12Z Thursday.
/issued 351 PM CST Wed Jan 29 2020/ An upper-level trough is moving through the Mid-South with the associate low-pressure system over the eastern Gulf. However, the chance for seeing rain showers has decreased and will continue to do so as the trough pushes east. High pressure can be seen upstream on surface analysis charts and is expected to build over the next couple of days. With northernly flow and mostly cloudy skies, temperatures will only reach the low 40s to upper 50s. A weak trough will move into the mid-south Thursday night and into Friday morning.
A slight warmup in temperatures is expected today as prevailing southwesterly winds ahead of an approaching lee side trough draws somewhat warmer air into the high plains, pushing H85 temperatures up a few degrees. Snowpack and lingering cloud cover will likely hinder climbing temperatures in central and portions of southwest Kansas today with highs generally in the upper 30s(F) to the lower 40s(F). Under clearing skies, widespread highs in the 40s(F) to possibly the lower 50s(F) can be expected further west in west central and portions of southwest Kansas closer to the Colorado border. A relatively quiet pattern will continue through the end of the weekend as ridging aloft drifts slowly east across the Intermountain West.
Upper low currently dropping south of KBLH and will continue to move south during the afternoon and away from the area tonight. Very localized accumulations of 1-2 inches are expected above 6500 feet by this evening, with 3-5 inches over the higher portions of the White Mtns. The low moves away from the area quickly tonight, with north to northeast flow aloft developing and continuing through Friday. A dry and warmer weekend is in store as high pressure builds into the West coast. Overnight, northeast breezes will remain strong along and south of the high terrain.
At the surface, east TN and southwest VA/NC remain under an area of weak high pressure, only to be reinforced by the aforementioned height rises. Currently across the region, weak returns are evident on radar across portions of extreme northeast TN and southwest VA, with much of this activity reaching the surface as light rain (flurries or snow showers at the higher elevations) per obs.
These have been obscured, of course, by the low stratus deck we've come to know well the past week or so. Overcast conditions today with highs in the lower to mid 30s and lows tonight in the mid to upper 20s. Similar conditions for Friday, though with temperatures perhaps a few degrees higher as wind organizes out of the southwest and advects a slightly warmer air mass in by midday.
1050 PM CST Wed Jan 29 2020 Current GOES water vapor/RAP 500mb analysis showing a trough of low pressure passing through the region. A ridge of high pressure builds into the area tonight, but don't plan on any clearing as moisture remains trapped under the subsidence inversion. However, if dense fog does form, could see some slick roads in addition to the reduced visibilities, especially bridges and overpasses. Thursday looking cloudy once again between departing high pressure and approaching trough of low pressure from the Northern Plains. Another trough of low pressure moves into the region Thursday night. May have to watch for some patchy freezing drizzle at times as model soundings showing occasional loss of ice in cloud. Light wintry mix of freezing drizzle/snow still possible Friday/Friday night in lingering cyclonic flow/lift.
/issued 226 PM CST Wed Jan 29 2020/ A couple of weak southern stream upper level troughs are on the way to visit west Texas and southeast New Mexico in the short term. Forecast soundings indicate the potential for light rain, light freezing rain and light snow Thursday morning. By afternoon precipitation should be all liquid except in the Davis Mountains and portions of the lower Trans Pecos where a light mix will continue to be possible. Precipitation chances should decrease Thursday evening as the trough axis moves east of the region. The next upper level trough is expected to arrive from the north early Friday morning and then dive south across southeast New Mexico and extreme west Texas into Mexico during the day Friday.
At the surface, the pattern was relatively weak with general high pressure over much of the Great Plains. Nevertheless there has been enough insolation for temps to warm above freezing and decent snow melt this afternoon. Conversely, if there is enough vertical motion for precip, will the mid levels saturate for mainly some light snow? With the uncertainty, will go with a mention or snow or freezing rain.
254 AM EST Thu Jan 30 2020 High pressure over the region today and Friday will move offshore this weekend as several systems bring us chances of rain and snow showers.
With lack of any ice crystals aloft, will mainly see patchy freezing drizzle develop, though could see some snow mix in at times, mainly along and north of I-70 corridor overnight. As system exits region on Friday, will just have some lingering drizzle/freezing drizzle/flurries in the far north through the day.
Scattered showers to increase in coverage from the west today as a broad low to mid-level trough translates east across the region tonight into Friday. Rain chances to diminish from the west on Friday as 700mb trough axis moves east of the Mississippi river. Slightly warmer conditions expected on Friday with highs in the low to mid 50s.
(Today and tonight) Due to near freezing temperatures, light winds, and recent snow accumulations, a freezing fog advisory was issued for a few of our W/NW counties through 15Z today. Latest observations indicate subfreezing temperatures over these counties with dew point depressions at/near 0-2 degrees. Mostly cloudy skies will begin to diminish over NW OK late this afternoon and daytime highs will reach the low 40s.
High pressure will keep today dry and cool. Temperatures will be a few degrees below normal for late January with highs the lower 40s to mid 50s. Temperatures will remain on the chilly side with lows Friday morning in the mid 30s to the lower 40s. Temperatures will be a little warmer over northern sections of the Mid-South with highs in the upper 40s to mid 50s.
Expect a fairly nice day across the Northern Rockies today, as a brief ridge moves over the region.
As the wave approaches today, most of the models suggest some very light precipitation may accompany the lift over the lower stratus layer in the form of -fzdz with possible light snow in the afternoon.
The marine areas especially offshore will be able to get into the warm sector but land areas should remain locked in the cool sector which should cause the area to stay relatively stable while the low forces a good bit of moisture over the top of the cooler air at the sfc.
Mostly light snow is expected across the higher elevations, with a mix to rain or drizzle in the lower elevations with diurnal heating. Ridging with amplify immediately to our east tonight as an approaching trough crosses the central US.
As temperatures warm above freezing and dew point depressions increase, L-ZL/F-ZF should clear by 18Z with low clouds hanging around for the remainder of the day. This should keep our high temperatures mainly in the lower 40s. Fog or freezing fog also looks likely again Friday morning across northern portions of the CWA before a cold front arrives after 12Z. This front will keep temperatures below normal Friday afternoon, altho temperatures should top out 10-15 degrees warmer than today. A warming trend will occur into this weekend as 500 mb ridging moves over the forecast area.
Feature will initiate development of a surface trof over the western Gulf evolving into a closed low while advancing east/northeast.
559 AM EST Thu Jan 30 2020 High pressure centered near New England will move off the Atlantic coast on Friday.
The 06Z NAM tries to keep a low cloud deck around most of the day for most areas, while the latest RUC indicates the western half of our forecast area could scatter out the low clouds and see sunshine. The NAM has been overdoing the low clouds recently and will lean towards seeing some clearing across our southwestern zones this afternoon. Any breaks in the clouds this afternoon, should fill back in this evening as a short wave trough moves through the area. The back end of the low clouds and fog should move east and out of our western zones prior to dawn.
419 AM EST Thu Jan 30 2020 The low has shifted east of the state to over the Atlantic this morning, with just a small area of showers lingering mainly in Polk county. Weak ridging will continue through tonight.
356 AM CST Thu Jan 30 2020 A prefrontal trough has moved through most of western Nebraska except the far eastern zones where areas of fog continued. A cold front will also advance east past Highway 83 by late afternoon with northwest winds 15 to 25 mph. An amplified nearly northerly flow aloft will linger on Friday, as the upper trough axis extends through the Great Lakes, southwest into north central Texas.
/issued 419 AM EST Thu Jan 30 2020/ The low has shifted east of the state to over the Atlantic this morning, with just a small area of showers lingering mainly in Polk county. Weak ridging will continue through tonight.
1000 AM EST Thu Jan 30 2020 High pressure over the region today and Friday will move offshore this weekend as several systems bring us chances of rain and snow showers.
Meanwhile, local radars are detecting a few sprinkles near the Lower Keys and the adjacent nearshore waters, with isolated showers beyond 20 nm southeast of the island chain. A weak cold front will sag southeastward and become stationary near the north coast of the island of Cuba this afternoon and tonight. This front will lift northward as a warm front, and into South Florida on Friday night.