Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1145 AM CST Sun Dec 4 2022 (Today through Monday) A weak cold front lies across the CWA this morning. South of the front, over the lower Valley, fog is prevalent, and can't rule out patches of locally dense through the early morning hours. With the weak cold front still in the vicinity today, a few light showers will be possible. The front will lift back to the north as a warm front tonight. Meanwhile, big mid-level ridging will remain a feature overhead. High pressure will also reestablish over the Gulf, supporting a strong return flow on Monday and moderate to breezy southeast winds. High temperatures on Monday will shoot up into the lower to mid 80s with mostly sunny skies by afternoon.
155 PM EST Sun Dec 4 2022 High pressure over the Ohio Valley will build eastward over the next couple of days, passing off the Mid Atlantic coast by Monday.
An upper low will bring moisture to the area today for rain and snow showers primarily south of Snohomish County. Drier weather Monday with weak high pressure aloft.
Aloft, the apex of flat ridging was allowing for a temporary break in the dense overcast layers from last night, but this appears short lived as the ridge departs this evening ahead of westerly flow and a return to thick high clouds. Lee troughing to our NW sharpens further on Monday under deeper westerly flow.
At the surface a weakening 1024mb ridge is centered close by and moving very slowly eastward. Tomorrow lower level ridging moves far enough east to allow for some south to southwesterly winds.
1257 PM EST Sun Dec 4 2022 High pressure will build south of the area today through Monday.
103 PM EST Sun Dec 4 2022 High pressure will extend across the region through tonight. High pressure centered over southern Illinois early this morning will track east across the region today. Highs will be about 5 degrees below normal, ranging from the upper 30s to the lower 40s. Increasing rain chances and cloud cover accompany the return of moisture with fairly deep saturation of the profile through the low and mid levels.
As the cold front drops south into the region Monday morning we see strong CAA and cyclonic flow aloft bring some potential for flurries, and this is reflected by a very weak signal for spotty/light QPF with some guidance. After relatively milder/above average temperatures today (currently above freezing in our south where this is no snow cover), the cold front should result in highs back down in the teens and lower 20s Monday.
1132 AM CST Sun Dec 4 2022 (Today through Monday Night) Yesterday's cold front is now well off the coast, and area temperatures early this morning range from the mid 50s inland to the low to mid 60s at the coast. High temperatures should peak in the mid to upper 60s well inland to the lower 70s toward the coast (should stay around the upper 60s at the beaches). With high pressure to our east and deepening low pressure in the northwest New Mexico- Texas Panhandle area on Monday, we will see strengthening south to south-southwest winds that will help to boost daytime highs around the 80 degree mark.
There have been reports of freezing rain from Mountain Home to Twin Falls and Jerome, including a spotter report of very slick roads due to the freezing rain west of Twin Falls. Additional snow amounts will be generally limited to the higher elevations of central Idaho. Generally MVFR conditions through 18Z in snow associated with a warm front advancing northward through the area. Areas of freezing rain through 18Z.
1148 AM CST Sun Dec 4 2022 (Today through Monday) The cold front has moved south of the region and through most of the offshore waters early this morning. Highs will be slightly cooler today with highs in the upper 60s along the coast and over northern portions of the forecast area. The front will return as a warm front tonight. Expect patchy to areas of fog will develop during the overnight hours over the coastal plains as the warm front moves through. The warm front will be north of the area by Monday morning. With the mid level ridge over South Texas, highs will be well above normal with readings in the lower 80s across mostly inland areas.
The remainder of the area will see a few scattered showers but mainly in the higher elevations. With the cessation of the precipitation comes an increasing 700-500mb jet that will serve to increase wind gusts over the Sierra, mostly affecting the high terrain above 7000 ft.
139 PM CST Sun Dec 4 2022 KEY MESSAGES: - Chance for light freezing rain and snow Monday morning along the I-90 corridor in southern MN.
242 PM CST Sun Dec 4 2022 Key Messages: * Cold Frontal Passage early Monday will bring breezier north winds and cooler temperatures.
Temperatures are generally in the lower 80s at most island communities.
235 PM CST Sun Dec 4 2022 A potent mid/upper trough is digging across the Great Lakes region while a strong mid/upper ridge is situated over the Gulf of Mexico. A weak front will push through the area Monday afternoon and evening bringing slightly cooler temperatures in its wake.
103 PM EST Sun Dec 4 2022 Dry high pressure will cover the area through tomorrow.
Temp wise it will still be on the cooler side tonight (20s) with highs climbing into the 40s for Monday. The battle between the Gulf of Mexico centered upper level ridge and a series of southern stream waves will keep most of the forecast plagued with chances for precip.
(Tonight through Monday night) The low clouds and patchy fog and drizzle have been persistent early this afternoon and have held temperatures in the 50s for most areas, except the Coastal Plains. The low clouds will gradually erode early afternoon across the Coastal Plains and Rio Grande, but will be slower to erode elsewhere through the I-35 corridor and Hill Country.
Isentropic ascent over the area may begin waning prior to the arrival of the low-level moisture, but lingering low-level ascent should still provide sufficient ascent within a marginally deep saturated layer to generate spotty light rain or drizzle late afternoon into the evening. A quick-moving low passing north of Lake Superior tonight will drag a cold front SSE across the area late Monday evening, clearing out any remaining pre-frontal precip across east-central IL and northwest IN. A weak cold front is expected to move across the area Monday evening shifting winds northerly.
1118 AM CST Sun Dec 4 2022 (Today and tonight) Early morning satellite analysis depicts a broad fetch of mid/upper level moisture stretching from the desert southwest into the central plains within WSW flow aloft along the edge of an upper ridge centered over Mexico. The aforementioned upper ridge will begin flattening today, with weakening flow aloft bringing an end to precipitation and resulting in dry conditions area-wide by this afternoon.
1131 AM EST Sun Dec 4 2022 Temperatures will climb back above freezing today with mostly sunny skies to help warming. High pressure slides eastward into the Virginias tonight and despite strong surface-based inversion which will decouple boundary layer from stronger 20-30kt low level flow and mostly clear skies for good radiational cooling. enough of a gradient over our area on the backside along with weak WAA on southwest flow to keep lows a little warmer in the mid 20s. Forecast period to begin with progressive zonal flow over the region with a northern stream wave rounding the base of closed low over central Canada and moving through the northern Great Lakes on Monday/Monday night while southern stream disturbances ride along boundary in the TN valley.
Issued by National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 1135 AM EST Sun Dec 4 2022 A series of small upper disturbances will give a good chance for rain early in the week, then deep ridging is expected with much lower rain chances and warmer late in the week. Highs will range from the mid to upper 50s north and west into the lower to mid 60s south and east.
Lows tonight will generally be in the low to mid 20s.
This will help the overnight lows remain in the 40s and even reaching the lower 50s in western north Texas. Skies will begin clearing from west to east early Monday morning as a cold front begins to enter in northern Oklahoma. with the relatively dry low levels, no precipitation is expected with the cold front moving through the region, and the modified airmass moving in will not significantly reduce temperatures. Highs in north Oklahoma will remain in the 60s, however in southern Oklahoma and western north Texas temperatures will warm up into the low to mid 70s.
519 PM CST Sun Dec 4 2022 (Tonight through Monday night) The low clouds and patchy fog and drizzle have been persistent early this afternoon and have held temperatures in the 50s for most areas, except the Coastal Plains. The low clouds will gradually erode early afternoon across the Coastal Plains and Rio Grande, but will be slower to erode elsewhere through the I-35 corridor and Hill Country.
Highs should reach the upper 40s to low 50s, with slightly cooler temperatures over the far northeastern corner. By Tue morning, geofrontogensis will weaken, however lingering moisture combined with weak orographics and marginal lapse rates will allow for periods of light over the higher terrain. On Wed, an upper level trough will move into the Great Basin with SW flow aloft across the area. For Wed night into Thu, the upper level trough will move across the area. For Fri night into Sat, a weak upper level trough may affect the Mtns.
GAH AFTERNOON DISCUSSION: (Tonight through Monday Night): The trough being emitted from the Eastern Pacific low is poised to move through the state tonight, bringing our southwestern zones the first shot of snow this week.
Southerly winds will also return this evening and overnight in response to the development of a surface cyclone across the High Plains. Monday also looks to be the warmest day of the period as deep southerly and southwesterly flow develops and a rather warm thermal ridge will impinge on eastern Oklahoma by Monday afternoon. If more sun can break through the cloud cover, some warmer temps cannot be ruled out.
We're also seeing winds start to pick up in the foothills, with 30 to 50 mph gusts in wind prone areas, mainly in the higher foothills so far. Highs should reach the upper 40s to low 50s, with slightly cooler temperatures over the far northeastern corner. By Tue morning, geofrontogensis will weaken, however lingering moisture combined with weak orographics and marginal lapse rates will allow for periods of light over the higher terrain. On Wed, an upper level trough will move into the Great Basin with SW flow aloft across the area. For Wed night into Thu, the upper level trough will move across the area. For Fri night into Sat, a weak upper level trough may affect the Mtns.
A potent mid/upper trough is digging across the Great Lakes region while a strong mid/upper ridge is situated over the Gulf of Mexico. A weak front will push through the area Monday afternoon and evening bringing slightly cooler temperatures in its wake.
Buckling of the westerlies aloft due to low amplitude ridging will guide high level Pacific moisture and associated cirrus across central Indiana toward daybreak. * One more cool night in store * Low rain chances Monday High pressure, centered to the south and east of central Indiana, was providing mostly clear skies and cool temperatures to the area this afternoon. The high will slide off to the east tonight. With the high off to the east, winds will remain up a bit overnight. Feel that guidance is too warm again, so will go closer to the cooler of the guidance numbers once again. At the surface, a cold front will approach the area from the northwest. Warm advection will allow temperatures to get in the lower to middle 40s.
There is a wide temperature range from north to south today due to more clearing in the south, but guidance indicates the warm sector will strengthen beneath the subtropical ridge and surge inland and should fully encompass the area as we go through Monday.
610 PM EST Sun Dec 4 2022 Dry high pressure will cover the area through tomorrow.
* One more cool night in store * Low rain chances Monday High pressure, centered to the south and east of central Indiana, was providing mostly clear skies and cool temperatures to the area this afternoon. The high will slide off to the east tonight. With the high off to the east, winds will remain up a bit overnight. Feel that guidance is too warm again, so will go closer to the cooler of the guidance numbers once again. At the surface, a cold front will approach the area from the northwest. Warm advection will allow temperatures to get in the lower to middle 40s.
Key Messages: * Cold Frontal Passage early Monday will bring breezier north winds and cooler temperatures.
The KMAX doppler radar remained echo-free tonight; the echo-free radar will carry over into late tonight and tomorrow due to a plethora of dry and stable air in the low and mid levels of the atmosphere. Overnight, temperatures will fall to the low to mid 70s, and winds will be from the northeast ranging from 10 to 15 knots. Tomorrow, the weather conditions will be dry and mostly sunny, with daytime high temperatures near the lower 80s. Another ridge of high pressure will build into the southeast and Atlantic waters by mid-week.
Temps still on track to be slightly warmer tomorrow, with highs reaching the low to mid 50s.
325 PM CST Sun Dec 4 2022 A weak cold front forming ahead of a stronger arctic cold front moving through Alberta and Saskatchewan will move through nrn Nebraska tonight. Key Messages: -Snow showers are possible Monday night, mainly across the Sandhills where a warm front will develop.
The upper level pattern will feature northwest flow tonight, with a more zonal flow developing Monday before a weak trough slides through Monday night. At the surface, a cold front currently over the western Dakotas will track across the CWA this evening, with high pressure beginning to nose in overnight. This ridge will encompass much of the central part of the country on Monday. A weak wave on the back side of the high may result in some light snow across north central South Dakota late tonight into Monday morning. The high exits to the east Monday afternoon ahead of an approaching low pressure system, which will be accompanied by another weak wave that may aid in light snow development Monday night.
209 PM MST Sun Dec 4 2022 This morning's Winter Weather Advisory for the lower Snake, Magic Valley and zones to the south was allowed to expire at noon today as the threat for freezing rain has ended. Winds have become southerly and temps have begun to warm above freezing so rain will be the most likely preicp type from Pocatello south and west into the Magic Valley. This is true for the lower Snake and Magic Valley as well but by the time this occurs, most of the precip will likely be east of the area.
600 PM CST Sun Dec 4 2022 KEY MESSAGES: - Chance for light freezing rain and snow Monday morning along the I-90 corridor in southern MN.
A weak cold front forming ahead of a stronger arctic cold front moving through Alberta and Saskatchewan will move through nrn Nebraska tonight. Key Messages: -Snow showers are possible Monday night, mainly across the Sandhills where a warm front will develop.
255 PM MST Sun Dec 4 2022 (Tonight through Monday Night): The trough being emitted from the Eastern Pacific low is poised to move through the state tonight, bringing our southwestern zones the first shot of snow this week.
814 PM EST Sun Dec 4 2022 High pressure will pass off the Mid Atlantic coast on Monday.
A low pressure system just offshore will continue to brings periods of rain showers and snow showers through Monday.
809 PM EST Sun Dec 4 2022 High pressure will pass off the Mid Atlantic coast on Monday.
High pressure will continue to ridge across the Florida peninsula through the week with pleasant weather expected. High pressure ridging over the eastern gulf waters will continue to produce rain-free conditions, NNE-ENE winds less than 15 knots and seas 2 feet or less through the week.
Patchy fog may develop for a few hours this morning along the lower Trans Pecos, primarily in Terrell County. Lee troughing across SE CO will bring strong westerly downsloping winds which will usher in unseasonably warm temperatures today.
The surface tough/cold front has slipped to far southeastern SD, with high pressure sinking in from southern Alberta. A large area of low pressure remains pinned over Hudson Bay and Nunavut, extending a trough over the northern tier of the U. This low/trough will shift east into southeastern SD by 21Z Tuesday. The period starts off with a resident upper low over Canada, and split flow coming into the west coast.
An advancing warm front continues to make northward gains this evening as it lifts farther into Deep East Texas with the rest of the region to follow overnight through Monday morning. For this forecast update, hourly and overnight low temperatures were adjusted to better align with current obs and trends given the warm frontal progression. But, with our region remaining on the northern periphery of a persistent large upper ridge across the Central Gulf of Mexico, the front will likely stall just south of the Interstate 30 corridor.
Modest isentropic ascent within the 290-300K layer will see 850mb dewpoints increase to around 5C by 00Z Tue and saturate this low level layer. Another brief lull with dry weather can be expected mid week as surface ridging over Ontario builds south into the northern Great Lakes.
A potent mid/upper trough is digging across the Great Lakes region while a strong mid/upper ridge is situated over the Gulf of Mexico. A weak front will push through the area Monday afternoon and evening bringing slightly cooler temperatures in its wake. Looking upstream, current water vapor satellite shows a meandering upper low just off of the Pacific Coast.
(The rest of tonight) A warmer and more moist airmass is lurking just south of the Red River, and this airmass will begin to advect north into our area overnight. A few light showers, and possibly even some drizzle, will be possible across parts of southeast Oklahoma and western Arkansas later tonight, so have kept the low pops as they are in those areas.
334 AM EST Mon Dec 5 2022 (Today through Tuesday) High pressure remains situated across the Middle Atlantic states and stretches down into much of GA. A warm front is positioned along the Gulf Coast. The warm front along the coast is expected to begin shifting north later today while the wedge strengthens across northeast portions of the state. The forecast is heavily dependent upon the strength of the wedge and how far the warm front will move. BL winds will remain at 10kt or below, so not confident on the northward progress of the warm front. Have adjusted MaxT values today for a slower northward progression of the warm front.
1045 PM CST Sun Dec 4 2022 (The rest of tonight) A warmer and more moist airmass is lurking just south of the Red River, and this airmass will begin to advect north into our area overnight. A few light showers, and possibly even some drizzle, will be possible across parts of southeast Oklahoma and western Arkansas later tonight, so have kept the low pops as they are in those areas.
337 AM EST Mon Dec 5 2022 High pressure shifts east today and is replaced with a meandering frontal boundary to the northwest for the work week. High pressure finally moves off to the east during the morning which will signal an end to the dry weather and mostly clear skies we have had the last couple days. By late afternoon, the lower column begins to rapidly saturate. Weak disturbance moving through southwest flow will result in a weak low pressure system tracking through the area early in the period. Once the low moves past the area, the trailing front will sag just south of the area.
Some of this fog may spread northward into SE GA towards sunrise, while some of the dense fog may linger past 9 am over far inland NE FL as the low sun angle in early December will take a while to help it dissipate as the weak frontal boundary attempts to lift slowly northward through the day. Old frontal boundary continues to slowly lift northward as a warm front through SE GA with a few light showers possible north of the Waycross area to the Altamaha River Basin, otherwise moist low layers will be primed once again for fog formation after sunset as boundary layer cooling takes place through the evening hours with areas of dense fog possible once again after midnight.
While the daytime highs still look to climb up into the 70s across the majority of the area, we have elected to lower them by several degrees towards the short term guidance that trend most bullish on overcast cloud cover and cooler temperatures.
1213 AM CST Mon Dec 5 2022 Key Messages: - Drizzle/ freezing drizzle possible Tuesday morning.
The fog and light rain potential should extend into at least the morning hours, while the low clouds will hang around in much of the area well into the afternoon. This makes high temperatures somewhat problematic, with well above normal temperatures expected in southwestern parts of the area - where decreasing clouds are more likely - and cooler temperatures in northeastern sections. Have gone closer to the NBM high temperatures where it should be warmer and undercut them in parts of northeast Oklahoma and western Arkansas.
A weak surface cold front is sagging southeast across east central and southwest MN while a warm front is lifting north across northern IA. As these two fronts meet along or just south of the MN/IA border by rush hour, a narrow band of freezing rain/light snow mix will develop south of I-90.
After sunset, clouds will start to fill back in as the low- level inversion re-strengthens this evening and another low-level stratus deck will re-develop. Tomorrow, a warm front will lift northward across the area and southwest winds will increase to 15-20 MPH. The stronger southwest winds will bring in a much warmer air mass, thereby helping temperatures to reach the mid to upper 70s.
1102 PM EST Sun Dec 4 2022 Dry high pressure will cover the area through tomorrow. A low pressure system and cold front over the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys will bring rain to the region late Monday night and into Tuesday.
958 PM CST Sun Dec 4 2022 An advancing warm front continues to make northward gains this evening as it lifts farther into Deep East Texas with the rest of the region to follow overnight through Monday morning. For this forecast update, hourly and overnight low temperatures were adjusted to better align with current obs and trends given the warm frontal progression. But, with our region remaining on the northern periphery of a persistent large upper ridge across the Central Gulf of Mexico, the front will likely stall just south of the Interstate 30 corridor.
951 PM CST Sun Dec 4 2022 KEY MESSAGES: - Chance for light freezing rain and snow Monday morning along the I-90 corridor in southern MN.
Temps on Mon wl be above seasonal values for much of the Srn half of the state, while to north of an advancing wrmfrnt, cooler, more seasonal temps can be expected for most of Nrn AR and the Ozark Mtns.
Otherwise, a trough along the West Coast will keep the weather cool, and mostly dry, with periods of low clouds west of the mountains. A broad trough will remain in place along the West Coast much of this week, steering weak disturbances and pockets of moisture our way.
Upper level ridging over the western Gulf of Mexico today will gradually build east towards Florida during the second half of the week. At the surface, broad ridging north of Florida will settle south today and Tuesday and hold in place through the rest of the work week. This stacked ridging will favor light winds, sunny skies, and rain free conditions, with temperatures running 5-10 degrees above normal.
A slow moving cold front will dip into the Texas Panhandle today and is expected to stall out tonight as it reaches the extreme southern Texas Panhandle. At the same time, a trough off of the northern coast of California will begin to move onshore tonight allowing mid and upper level winds to start to back to the southwest. Surface lee troughing combined with the advancing front will boost temperatures this afternoon.