Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Clouds will gradually dissipate this evening as a ridge of high pressure builds over the region. Stable air creating inversions will bring a return to freezing fog in the lower valleys of the Northern Rockies.
INTERIOR AND SEA FOG IS FORECAST TO RETURN WITH THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELING BRINGING THE ONSET OF MVFR (OR LOWER) CATEGORY FOG INTO THE SOUTHERN 1/2 OF REGION JUST AFTER 00Z TONIGHT. A TRADITIONALLY COOLER AND MORE MOIST FLOW DURING THE WINTER MONTHS. COULD SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS AGAIN TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT.
HIGH PRESSURE IS PUSHING IN FROM THE NW WITH THE COLD FRONT NOW DOWN OVER TX. THE UPPER LOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS TX FRI AND INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY SAT NIGHT. UPPER RIDGING IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE ROCKIES INTO THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH THESE EXTENDED PERIODS WHICH WILL RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF NW FLOW OVER THE PLAINS.
1142 AM CST TUE JAN 20 2015 MINOR UPDATE TO ADJUST COVERAGE AND TIMING OF FREEZING DRIZZLE BASED ON LATEST SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE. LATEST RAP/HRRR TRENDS DEPICT THE INCOMING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TOO FAR SOUTH TO CAUSE MORE THAN A DUSTING OF SNOW IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST CWA. INTERMITTENT FLURRIES AND/OR FREEZING DRIZZLE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS ACROSS CENTRAL MINNESOTA. FLURRIES AND FREEZING DRIZZLE POSSIBLE AT TIMES.
238 PM EST TUE JAN 20 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS OUT TO SEA SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
205 PM EST TUE JAN 20 2015 A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS NEW YORK AND NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA WITH FAIR AND COLD WEATHER TONIGHT.
1244 PM EST TUE JAN 20 2015 AS A MID-LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO PASS EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION. /ISSUED 636 AM EST TUE JAN 20 2015/ VFR CIGS SCT-BKN040-050 BKN-OVC250 WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH PASSES ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE DROPPING INTO THE ROCKIES WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, SHOVING A DRY COLD FRONT INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
WE WILL SEE A RAPID CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON, AND TEMPERATURES WILL THEN RECOVER FAIRLY NICELY INTO THE UPPER 40S TO THE LOWER 50S ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN HOLD STEADY OR PERHAPS VERY SLOWLY RISE TOWARD THE LOWER 30S BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY.
WITH A COMBINATION OF LIGHT WESTERN WINDS AND CLOUD COVER KEEPING MOST AREAS ABOVE FREEZING AT 3AM. AND SHOULD SERVE TO CONFINE THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR LIGHT PRECIP ALONG AND NORTHEAST OF A HURON TO BROOKINGS. BROAD UPPER TROUGHING WILL KEEP RELATIVELY UNSETTLED CONDITIONS IN THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS WE MOVE INTO THE END OF THE WEEK THE LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY TO A MORE PROGRESSIVE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ON TOP OF A BUILDING WESTERN CONUS RIDGE.
327 PM EST TUE JAN 20 2015 A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING.
SURFACE TEMPERATURES COLD WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS AND DAYTIME HIGHS STRUGGLING TO GET ABOVE FREEZING.
NEAR THE SURFACE, A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE HIGH PLAINS OF EASTERN COLORADO. WE WILL SEE A RAPID CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON, AND TEMPERATURES WILL THEN RECOVER FAIRLY NICELY INTO THE UPPER 40S TO THE LOWER 50S ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN HOLD STEADY OR PERHAPS VERY SLOWLY RISE TOWARD THE LOWER 30S BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY.
Pacific upper level ridging is building in behind the trough, with drier northerly flow developing. This will act to clear much of the Valley today of the low clouds and fog, though low stratus clouds will be slower to clear over the northern San Joaquin Valley. The upper level ridge will become unusually strong for this time of year by the end of the week.
AS THIS UPPER LOW DEEPENS BETTER FORCING WILL MAINLY BE OVER EASTERN COLORADO. TRACK OF MAIN UPPER LOW AND POSITION OF UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE LOWERS CONFIDENCE IN LIGHT SNOW OVER NW KANSAS. AND TEMPS HOVERING AROUND OR BELOW FREEZING. WHICH COULD ALLOW TEMPS TO RECOVER INTO THE LOW 40S. NOT AN EASY TEMP FORECAST AS POSITION OF PRECIP/CLOUD COVER WILL DETERMINE CUTOFF IN SUB FREEZING HIGHS.
1230 PM EST TUE JAN 20 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS LABRADOR TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
LIMITED AREAS OF CLEARING WILL ALLOW FOR HIGHS INTO THE LOWER 40S THIS AFTERNOON WITH AREAS THAT REMAIN UNDER CLOUD COVER STRUGGLING THROUGH THE MIDDLE 30S.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN KEEP CONDITIONS DRY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
BUT WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN THE READINGS WE HAVE SEEN TODAY AND YESTERDAY. PERHAPS 10 DEGREES COOLER IN FACT. TONIGHTS LOWS WILL BE WARMER TONIGHT. WITH READINGS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE LOWER 30S ACROSS THE AREA.
256 PM EST TUE JAN 20 2015 A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS NEW YORK AND NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA WITH FAIR AND COLD WEATHER TONIGHT.
A DRY SURFACE COLD FRONT, THAT WAS LOCATED FROM NORTH OF CSV TO NEAR PULASKI AT 20Z, SEPARATED TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 60S EAST OF THE FRONT, TO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 50S FURTHER WEST. TEMPERATURES WON'T COOL MUCH OVERNIGHT, WITH CLOUDS AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED TO KEEP READINGS FROM FALLING ANY LOWER THAN THE LOW-TO-MID 30S. ZONAL UPPER FLOW ALLOWS FOR AT LEAST ONE MORE DAY OF MILD TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY, WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO BE IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.
TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOW 30S TO LOW 40S WITH THE COOLEST TEMPS OBSERVED WHERE PRECIPITATION IS FALLING. A RAIN/SNOW MIX AND SNOW WERE ALL BEING OBSERVED AS WET-BULB TEMPERATURES HOVERING AROUND FREEZING. PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN ALL SNOW OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO DUE TO COOLER TEMPS ADVECTING IN. TEMPS SHOULD REBOUND NICELY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 40S TO LOW 50S. COOLER TEMPS ANTICIPATED WEDNESDAY AS CLOUD COVER HANGS ON UNTIL THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
253 PM CST Tue Jan 20 2015 Lingering sunshine is rapidly fading across the CWA, as the low cloud deck has advanced as far southeast as Decatur and Paris, while mid and high clouds spread east from Missouri. The lower clouds have stopped the temperature rise in the north with mid/upper 30s this afternoon, while mid 40s to around 50 degrees were observed further south where the sunshine had lingered the longest. With this type of system, the highest snow chances are generally along/north of the track, and the forecast soundings across our northern CWA show little in the way of snow- generating ice crystals in the -10 to -20C layer. As the low passes to our east later in the day, there may be enough cyclonic flow/weak cold air advection for some scattered flurries across the north into Wed.
THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW REPORTS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE TODAY IN THIS AREA. WHILE SOUNDINGS ARE SUB-FREEZING. THIS HAS LED TO PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE. MOIST LOW LEVELS AND A DRY LAYER ALOFT (ACCORDING TO THE RAP) COULD BE ENOUGH TO YIELD A BIT MORE FREEZING DRIZZLE. FOR NOW HAVE INCLUDED PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE THROUGH 00Z. THERE HAVE BEEN UPSTREAM REPORTS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE UP INTO CANADA.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD DOWN FROM CANADA AND BRING DRIER WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA TODAY AND WEDNESDAY.
MILD LOWER TROPOSPHERIC THERMAL PROFILE WILL KEEP SLRS ON THE LOW SIDE LIKELY BETWEEN 10-12:1. NW FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS CIRCULATION WILL ADVECT COOLER AND SATURATED AIR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE CWA. LOWERED HIGHS ACROSS THE NORTH INTO THE LOWER 30S WHERE A THIN SNOW COVER SHOULD EXIST.
130 PM PST TUE JAN 20 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC THIS WEEK EXPANDING OVER THE WEST COAST BY THE WEEKEND. CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE REGION TODAY ARE STARTING TO THIN THIS AFTERNOON. AND COOLER HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY THAN TODAY. THIS WOULD PROMOTE SOME MIXING IN THE LOWEST 500-800 FEET OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER. RIDGE BUILDS TO THE WEST AGAIN WEDNESDAY.
A fast zonal 500mb flow will develop over the Lower Ohio Valley over the next couple of days. Lows tonight will vary from the lower to mid 30s, while Wednesday's highs will range from near 50 south to the middle 40s north. By tomorrow evening, a sagging west to east orientated trough will move south across Indiana. This will spread some cloudiness as well as cooler temperatures as far south as central Kentucky. Expect low Wednesday night again in the lower to mid 30s.
A NEARLY STACKED SFC TO MID-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO WED MORNING. SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT SATURATION MAY GENERALLY BE CONFINED TO THE LOWER LEVELS DURING THE ONSET OF PRECIP. TEMPS SHOULD BE AT OR BELOW FREEZING MOST PLACES BY EVENING. SO MENTIONED PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE ALONG WITH SNOW CHANCES INITIALLY.
ANOTHER SHOT OF COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO OUR AREA BEHIND THE DAKOTA CLIPPER SYSTEM TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS NOTED BY THE SEVERAL DEGREE DROP IN 850MB TEMPERATURES. SHOWING THE CWA UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING E/W THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT EXPANDING ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. DOWNWIND FROM A MID LEVEL RIDGE POSITIONED JUST OFF THE WEST COAST.
A WEAK PASSING TROUGH WILL BRING COLDER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH CHANCES FOR RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS.
The higher probability for rain will be along the north-south oriented trough where greater convergence exists due simply to the motion of the system.
847 AM PST TUE JAN 20 2015 DENSE FOG ADVISORY EXTENDED UNTIL 10 AM A SHALLOW MARINE LAYER WILL BRING AREAS OF DENSE FOG THIS MORNING AND COOLER WEATHER TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN THE MARINE LAYER TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY EXTENDING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG FARTHER INLAND. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP LATER WEDNESDAY AND SWEEP OUT THE LOW CLOUDS. THE OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT DEVELOPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND FOR CLEAR AND WARM WEATHER. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGH IS DEVELOPING JUST WEST OF CALIFORNIA TODAY AND WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TONIGHT. IT WILL ALSO DEEPEN OUR MARINE LAYER AND SPREAD THE LOW CLOUDS FARTHER INLAND TONIGHT. ON WEDNESDAY THE TROUGH SCOOTS EAST AND OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS IN ITS WAKE.
BEFORE DEEPER MOISTURE ARRIVES TO SEED THE LOWER CLDS WITH ICE CRYSTALS. EXPECT AREAS OF -SN AND ISOLATED -ZR/-ZL TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING AS WEAK TROF AND LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING SLIDES OFF TO THE EAST. THE NAM KEEPS DEEP MOISTURE OVER SOUTHERN WI MUCH LONGER THAN THE GFS AND ECMWF DUE TO IT KEEPING THE UPPER TROUGH OVERHEAD LONGER.
WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL TEXAS WILL CONTINUE MOVING SOUTH TO SE THIS EVENING WHILE SLOWLY WEAKENING KEEPING A WEAK ONSHORE FLOW IN PLACE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT OR VERY EARLY WED. THIS WILL SERVE TO INCREASE MOISTURE LEADING TO FOG OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. BY WEDNESDAY MORNING A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH ALLOWING A SLIGHTLY COOLER AIRMASS TO FILTER IN THROUGH THE DAY.
141 PM EST TUE JAN 20 2015 A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH WITH HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING FARTHER OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST TONIGHT.
LOOK FOR THIS TROUGH TO BECOME THE FOCUS FOR SOME LIGHT LES AS 850 MB TEMPS LINGER AROUND -11C. EXPECT TEMPS TO REBOUND FM CHILLY OVERNIGHT LOWS AND REACH INTO THE LOWER 20S EAST TO MID TO UPPER 20S WEST AND CENTRAL. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AND MUCH OF THE EASTERN U. WITH A RIDGE ACROSS THE FAR W.
A deepening, positively tilted trough will slide southward down the High Plains through midweek, transitioning currently zonal flow aloft to north northwest. Cooler Canadian air will accompany the more northerly flow and will resulting in decreasing surface temperatures, but light winds, a lack of snow cover, and sunshine should prevent temperatures from falling even to their seasonal normals. Cooler conditions and light winds should also end our period of enhanced fire danger, despite dry fuels and the continued lack of anticipated precipitation. As the upper trough swings eastward and departs late this week, highs are expected to recover into the upper 40s to low 50s for the weekend.
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SE THRU THE AREA THIS EVENING AS WELL SHIFTING WINDS FROM W TO NW AND EVENTUALLY N LATE TONIGHT.
Terminals KGPI, KMSO, and KSMN are likely to see areas of freezing fog on Wednesday morning. Besides the lingering showers this morning, there could be some patchy freezing fog in the valleys of northwest Montana. Clearing skies will lead to cooler than normal temperatures for tonight and the potential for freezing fog development.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE RETURNING TONIGHT BEHIND A DRY COLD FRONT CURRENTLY PUSHING THROUGH THE REGION. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S NORTH TO THE LOWER 40S SOUTH. HIGH PRESSURE AND LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO MID 60S SOUTH.
A WEAK COLD FRONT COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. AND TEMPERATURES ON THE COOLER SIDE OF THE FRONT ARE ONLY MARGINALLY COOLER.
Given the depth of dry air below the lift and moisture, expect little more than sprinkles with only a very small potential for a rain shower if weak elevated instability can develop today under the approaching trough. Based on the assumption of afternoon sunshine, high temperatures should climb into the lower 50s despite a northwest breeze and some cold advection. Elongated upper trough digs southeast towards the southern plains on Wednesday. While weak mid level frontogenesis develops as the trough axis passes overhead, dry air through 10 KFT will bring only passing mid level clouds through the day.
SOME FOG DEVELOPING ON THE BACK EDGE OF THE CLOUD BAND SO HAVE UPDATED TO INCLUDE PATCHY FREEZING FOG UNTIL 15Z. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO AHEAD OF A WEAK UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE GREAT BASIN BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WHILE A SECOND TROUGH DIVES SOUTH ALONG THE ROCKIES ON WEDNESDAY.
400 MB POTENTIAL VORTICITY SHOW THESE TWO TROUGHS PHASING WITH THE RESULTING TROUGH AXIS STRETCHING FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS AND AZ BY LATE WED. WILL MAKE LITTLE CHANGE TO THE CURRENT FORECAST OF A CHANCE OF SNOW FOR THE SAN JUANS AND SOUTHWARD WED WITH A FEW POCKETS OF LIGHT SNOW OVER THE CENTRAL MTNS IN COOLER BUT WEAK NORTHERLY FLOW. A RELATIVELY WEAK AND DRY COLD FRONT WILL ALSO AID IN SOME LIFT.
The transition toward a more northwesterly flow pattern and resulting cooler temperatures will continue the remainder of the week into the weekend.
THIS HELP TO AMPLIFY THE TROUGH QUICKLY CREATING PRECIP CHANCES DOWNSTREAM OF THE TROUGH AXIS FROM EASTERN COLORADO DOWN INTO NEW MEXICO AND THE SOUTH PLAINS. ADDITIONALLY, A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET IS PROJECTED TO STREAM EASTWARD OUT OF THE DEEPENING TROUGH AXIS INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS INCREASING DYNAMIC SUPPORT ALOFT. AS A BAND OF H7 FRONTOGENESIS DEVELOPS AND BEGINS TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS WEDNESDAY MORNING, SNOW IS EXPECTED TO INITIATE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO AND NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO. AS CLOUD COVER BEGINS TO INCREASE ONCE AGAIN FROM THE WEST EARLY WEDNESDAY, LOOK FOR HIGHS ONLY UP INTO THE 30S(F) ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND MUCH OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS WITH THE LOWER TO MID 40S(F) STILL POSSIBLE IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SHIFT OVER THE REGION TODAY AND WEDNESDAY FOR DRY WEATHER. A MOSTLY SUNNY AFTERNOON TODAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY FOG DEVELOPMENT OVER THE LOWLANDS TONIGHT. THE RIDGE WILL EXIT THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY COOLER IN THE WAKE OF THE TRANSLATED DRY FROPA ALONG WITH NW SFC WINDS.
A cold front will move through the area today, turning winds from light and variable to northerly at around 10 knots. Once CIGS develop, expect them to remain through the end of the forecast period, as widespread lift moves into the area ahead of an upper level trough. A cold front will slide across the area during daylight hours and shift winds around to the north at about 10 knots.
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS A WEAK PACIFIC IMPULSE MOVES THROUGH.
259 PM CST TUE JAN 20 2015 MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM REMAIN FOCUSED AROUND THE PERSISTENT LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES WITH OCCASIONAL LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WITH SNOW AND INTERMITTENT LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE BEING REPORTED. THE REMAINDER OF THE NORTHLAND WILL LIKELY SEE SCATTERED FLURRIES AND OCCASIONAL LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE WITH MINIMAL TO NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. ALTHOUGH THE THREAT FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE REALLY HAS NOT MATERIALIZED AS ANTICIPATED TODAY.
A COLD FRONT IS PASSING THROUGH NW ALABAMA AND THROUGH MUSCLE SHOALS WITH A NORTHWEST WIND AND COOLER AIR FOLLOWING IT. THE HIGH CLOUDS HAVE FILLED IN AND SHOULD REMAIN THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH AN OCCASIONAL BREAK OR TWO. COOLER AIR AND SOME SUN RETURNS ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 50S.
1134 AM CST TUE JAN 20 2015 WEAK COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH THE STATE THIS TUE.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL PERSIST ALONG THE WEST COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. UPPER FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BE NORTHWEST ACROSS OUR AREA DOWNSTREAM FROM THE RIDGE. HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE FREEZING MARK NORTH WHERE MORE CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED.
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR IS MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT, BUT DEW POINTS AREN'T SEEMING TO BUDGE. COLD FRONT CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR BNA WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST.
FOG AND LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE OVER THE LOWER TREASURE VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF THE UPPER TREASURE. TEMPERATURES ARE BELOW FREEZING. RIDGING ALOFT WILL HELP STRENGTHEN THE INVERSION THROUGH TOMORROW. BECAUSE EVEN AS RIDGING IS BUILDING IN THE HEIGHTS ARE FALLING.
THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WATER VAPOR SHOWS BROAD UPPER TROF COVERING SCNTRL CANADA/NRN PLAINS. ELONGATED TROF EXTENDS FROM NWRN ND THROUGH SWRN MN WITH BREEZY NW WINDS ON THE SD PLAINS. BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED AGAIN WITH TEMPS RUNNING ABOUT 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY.
WEAK CAA IN THE LOWER LEVELS SHOULD ALLOW FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S FOR MOST LOCATIONS ACROSS THE SANDHILLS. THUS HIGHS SHOULD RUN SOME 10F COOLER. CURRENT FORECAST INDICATES HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST. A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION SOUTHWEST ACROSS NEBRASKA INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION.
359 PM CST TUE JAN 20 2015 COLD FRONT IS ORIENTED ALONG OR JUST NORTH THE I-20 CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON AS IT MAINTAINS STEADY PROGRESS ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLER ON WEDNESDAY WITH PACIFIC MOISTURE ICNREASING.
BUT CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES IN. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER STORY TODAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE WILL SETUP OVER THE AREA LATER TODAY IN THE WAKE OF A WEAK UPPER TROUGH AND ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT THAT WERE BRINGING VERY LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES TO OUR FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES OVERNIGHT. THE TRAILING RIDGE SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S NORTH TO AROUND 50 SOUTH PER THE 00Z MOS TEMPERATURES LOOK GOOD BASED ON CLOUD COVER TRENDS AND THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILE.
POPS END OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS MIDLEVEL RIDGING BRIEFLY PAYS A VISIT TO THE CWA. ALONG THE RIDGES. EXPECT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL HELP TO SCOUR OUT AND WARM THE OTHER RIDGE COUNTIES. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY STAY JUST AROUND FREEZING.
At the surface, observations show a weak ridge of high pressure has set up over the state. With some afternoon sunshine, temps have made it into the lower and middle 50s. Meanwhile high pressure at the surface should maintain a northerly low level trajectory preventing any decent moisture advection. However there is some potential for temps to be cooler if we go calm and skies remain clear. Highs Wednesday are forecast to be cooler as models show low level cold air advection increasing. This with some increasing high clouds should hold temps down into the lower and mid 40s.
Cooler temperatures are expected today compared to yesterday due to at least weak low level cold air advection along with more cloud cover to limit solar insolation. Still went on the high side of MOS temperature guidance as it has been consistently running a little cool on daytime highs. Although the maximum temperature will be cooler today it should still be around 10 degrees above normal for late January.
1230 PM EST TUE JAN 20 2015 WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. A SECOND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MIDWEST AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR BNA WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST.
ACTIVE PATTERN IN THE COMING WEEK AS TWO MAIN UPPER TROUGHS WITH MINOR EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES PROGRESS THROUGH THE MIDWEST BRINGING TWO MAIN ROUNDS OF WET WEATHER.
303 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015 UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO MOVE OVER SE TX THIS AFTERNOON.
THINK SOME HIGH BASED SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR. REDUCED POPS TO MAINLY THE LOW CHANCE CATEGORY FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS IS LIKELY POPS BY I-70 WHERE THE COLD FRONT IS AND BETTER LIFT COMES INTO THE CONVECTIVE PICTURE. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WITH COOLER MINIMUMS EXPECTED - 40S TO A FEW LOW 50S SOUTHEAST. TOMORROW: A COOLER DAY IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. COOLER LOW LEVEL AIR WILL SPREAD IN FROM THE EAST.
336 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015 COLD FRONT ENTERING WESTERN MINNESOTA AT MID AFTN AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST. UPPER LOW/TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST AND SWING THROUGH THE AREA. IT WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AND STILL BREEZY.
319 PM EDT WED APR 1 2015 HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS ONTARIO ON THURSDAY. A WARM FRONT FROM THE LOW WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA TOMORROW AND WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT DURING THE EVENING.
305 AM MDT WED APR 1 2015 A VORTICITY CENTER OVER UT WAS HELPING DRIVE A BAND OF MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING AND AHEAD OF A LARGER UPPER TROUGH MAKING LANDFALL IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. A SURFACE COLD FRONT MEANDERED FROM SW WY TO SRN NV. WHICH PUSHES OVER NE UT/NW CO TODAY AND THEN STALLS AS THE PACNW TROUGH LIFTS ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES INTO CANADA. EXPECT ONLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION AT THE SURFACE FROM THE HIGH-BASED CONVECTION WITH GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS THE BIGGER THREAT.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE SEWD FROM OFF THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW OVER THE WEEKEND.
A LT SLY FLOW ACRS THE AREA AROUND THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH WAS SUPPLYING AMPLE LOW LVL MOISTURE TO THE REGION. ABV NORMAL HIGHS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER 80S.
330 AM CDT Wed Apr 1 2015 The amplification/expansion of the 85h thermal ridge will largely modulate the increasing temperature trend thru Thur. Weakish wly mid level flow today will serve to induce pressure falls of 4-8mb/12hrs to result in a broad lee trof with surface winds sw-w by late afternoon. Said thermal ridge will be displaced farther e Thur and increases from 21-24C Wed to 22-25C Thur.
LOW CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP AND EXPAND EARLY THIS MORNING AS WARM FRONT/RICHER GULF MOISTURE MOVES NORTHWARD. THUS FORCING A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE STORMS SHOULD QUICKLY FORM INTO A LINE ALONG THE SURFACE COLD FRONT.
A COOLER AIR MASS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY.
HOWEVER, THE BACK EDGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM SW TO NE ACROSS THE TN VALLEY AS MOISTURE ALOFT INCREASES AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
1019 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015 WITH AN 850 MB RIDGE CENTERED OVER IL/IN TODAY.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS. LOW-LEVEL THERMAL FIELDS SUGGEST THAT COOLER AIR WILL BE SLOW TO ARRIVE BEHIND THE FRONT.