Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
629 AM CDT FRI JUL 17 2015 WARM TODAY WITH LINGERING DRIZZLE/SHOWERS/PATCHY FOG GIVING WAY TO A MOSTLY SUNNY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH WILL BRING RAIN AND POSSIBLY SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE WILL SEE SOME MID-LEVEL RIDGING MOVE INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST TODAY AHEAD OF AN UPPER LOW DEEPENING OVER THE CONTAIN PRAIRIE. A WARM FRONT WILL BE DRAPED FROM AROUND INL DOWN TO MOOSE LAKE IN NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AND EAST ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA. WITH THE WARM FRONT RISING NORTHEAST INTO SATURDAY. A NORTH-SOUTH ORDAINED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND BY SATURDAY EVENING. HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.
A DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION ENABLING MOISTURE TO GET PULLED UP INTO CENTRAL NEVADA.
300 AM PDT THU JUL 30 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL BRING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
UPPER HIGH OVER CENTRAL TEXAS WILL MOVE OVER NEW MEXICO FRIDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. UPPER HIGH OVER EASTERN TEXAS SLOWLY MIGRATING WEST. UPPER HIGH MOVES OVER NEW MEXICO FRIDAY AND BOTH GFS/ECMWF PARK IT THERE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
300 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015 SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS MORNING REVEALED AN ILL-DEFINED COLD FRONT ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. DRIER AND COOLER AIR WAS WELL BEHIND THE INITIAL WIND SHIFT AND CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. HIGH RES MODELS SEEM TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE COLD FRONT AND EXPECTED MOISTURE INCREASE. LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE WILL DECREASE ON FRIDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS TO THE WEST. THE DRIER AND COOLER AIR THAT IS CURRENTLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL FINALLY START TO WORK IN FROM THE NORTH/NORTHEAST FRIDAY AND THIS WILL KEEP AFTERNOON TEMPS/HEAT INDEX VALUES LOWER THAN TODAY.
THE FORECAST AREA RESIDES ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF A LARGE AREA OF MID/UPPER-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL U. WITH WEAK TROUGHING OVER THE STATE. BUT ONSHORE FLOW ALONG WITH THE PRESENCE OF THE TROUGH AXIS WILL KEEP SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OFFSHORE. BUT THE TROUGH AXIS WILL REMAIN IN THE VICINITY AND DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE SO WE CAN EXPECT ANOTHER DAY OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
441 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
346 AM MDT THU JUL 30 2015 BROAD HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT CONTINUES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER STATES. WITH SOME BUILDING OF THE HIGH FURTHER WEST AND NORTH ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. SURFACE TROF OVER EASTERN COLORADO BECOMES ELONGATED ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO WHICH RESULTS IN SOME WEAK CONVERGENCE FROM THE PALMER DIVIDE AND STRETCHES THROUGH FAR NE PLAINS. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES HIGHER TODAY OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS WITH THE DRIER AND SLIGHTLY WARMER AIRMASS. MODELS ARE STILL IN AGREEMENT AS THEY CONTINUE TO EXTEND THE UPPER RIDGE NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN PLACING NERN COLORADO UNDER A SOMEWHAT DRIER NWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW FRIDAY MORNING. PRECIP CHANCES IN THE 30-40 PCT RANGE IN THE HIGH COUNTRY AND 10-20 PCT AT LOWER ELEVATIONS. HIGHS ON FRIDAY STILL BELOW AVERAGE WITH MID/UPPER 80S WITH MAINLY 70S IN THE HIGH COUNTRY.
143 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS NRN OH/NW PA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
408 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD WEST OF THE REGION TODAY AND SLOWLY MOVE TO THE REGION ON FRIDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT TONIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY PASS ON FRIDAY NIGHT.
CONCUR WITH THE GFS DETERMINISTIC WHICH MOVES THE UPPER RIDGE CENTER WESTWARD DRG THE PERIOD.
637 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD WEST OF THE REGION TODAY AND SLOWLY MOVE TO THE REGION ON FRIDAY.
LOTS OF UPPER LEVEL SHEAR OVER THE GULF AND THE LONG WAVE TROUGH SHOULD HELP KEEP ANY TROPICAL SYSTEMS AWAY.
WITH THREE DISTINCT VORTICITY CENTERS MOVING INTO THE TROUGH. A SURFACE COLD FRONT WAS REFLECTED OVER FAR SOUTH CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN. UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL KEEP NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED. A FEW SUBTLE WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE RIDGE MAY BRING AN OCCASIONAL SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY TODAY.
DUE TO EARLIER RAINFALL AND MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT, DEWPOINTS HAVE RISEN INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S IN SOME LOCATIONS. ONE OTHER LIKELY IMPACT WILL BE FOG FORMATION WHEN THE HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER DISSIPATES OR THINS. 77 ISOL -TSRA ARE POSSIBLE UNTIL APPROXIMATELY 15Z-17Z AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY PROCEEDS SOUTHEAST, BUT HAVE NOT INCLUDED IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME DUE TO ISOLATED NATURE. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS OVER THE REGION BTWN 12-15Z WHICH SHOULD CHANGE WIND DIRECTION/SPEED TO N/NE.
400 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015 LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE/TROUGH OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA/EASTERN CANADA RESPECTIVELY SLOWLY AMPLIFIES THROUGH 84 HOURS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING QUIET AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS TO CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. CONSENSUS NUMBERS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S APPEAR QUITE REASONABLE BASED ON UPSTREAM MAX TEMPS FROM YESTERDAY. ONLY SIGNIFICANT ISSUE APPEARING IN THE SHORT TERM IS A WEAK COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT. WHICH IS TO BE EXPECTED GIVEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH CUTTING OFF ANY CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT RETURN FLOW. HAVE DECIDED TO GO WITH A 14 POP AND NO WEATHER IN LIGHT OF THE LACK OF MOISTURE AND SIGNIFICANT INHIBITION IN THE LOW LEVELS AS A RESULT.
WEAK COLD FRONT STILL JUST OFF TO OUR NW BUT SHOULD BEGIN TO PUSH THROUGH AROUND MIDDAY. TONIGHT SHOULD BE VERY PLEASANT AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ALONG WITH DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO THE 60S AS WELL.
427 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015 SUFFICIENT ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA AND AN APPROACHING WEAK COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. EASTERN UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES A BIT AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. RIDGE SHIFTING A LITTLE FURTHER WEST. WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE TODAY.
GLOBAL MODELS REMAIN IN AGREEMENT IN FORECASTING A MID- LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE -- CURRENTLY CENTERED ACROSS THE ARKLATEX -- TO RETROGRADE OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY OF N TX/S OK TODAY AS A PAIR OF VORTICES DIG EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/GREAT LAKES. THE EASTERN EXTENT OF THE RIDGE AXIS IS PROGGED TO REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL TENNESSEE VALLEY. WITH STRONG ANTICYCLONIC CURVATURE/SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AND NORTHERLY PREFRONTAL FLOW AT THE SURFACE PROVIDING AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CONVECTIVE UPDRAFTS AS THE TRUE COLD FRONT ARRIVES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE LOWER/MID 60S BY LATE AFTERNOON. WHICH WILL BE ENHANCED FURTHER BY THE DEVELOPMENT OF A DEEP UPPER LOW OVER HUDSON BAY.
COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON COULD ACTUALLY BE MORE WIDESPREAD THAN THE AREA EXPERIENCED WITH THE COLD FRONT THAT PASSED THROUGH YESTERDAY MORNING.
506 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015 SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY A COLD FRONT FROM THE WESTERN ALLEGHENIES INTO THE CENTRAL RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION EARLY TODAY. RADAR LOOP SHOWS A FRACTURED LINE/AXIS OF SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED TSTMS MOVING INTO THE ALLEGHENIES EARLY THIS MORNING IN ADVANCE OF SFC COLD FRONT. RELIEF FROM THE HEAT/HUMIDITY WILL ARRIVE BY TONIGHT AS A NOTICEABLY DRIER LOW PW AIRMASS OVERSPREADS THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST BEHIND THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. IN BETWEEN AN EXPANSIVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES/PLAINS AND UPPER TROUGH/CLOSED LOW INVOF HUDSON BAY. IN WHAT WILL BE A SERIES OF MOISTURE STARVED NRN STREAM COLD FRONTS.
1137 PM MDT WED JUL 29 2015 WITH STRONG RIDGING FROM NM TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BY THU NIGHT. AS THE RIDGE BUILDS. HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RULE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE LATEST MODEL RUNS DO NOT ALLOW THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER TO SHIFT AS FAR WEST AS PREVIOUS RUNS AS A PACIFIC TROUGH BLOCKS IT FROM THE WEST. AS A RESULT THE HIGH CENTER STAYS OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES WHICH IS A MORE FAVORABLE PLACEMENT FOR THE SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME TO STREAM INTO OUR FORECAST AREA.
545 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015 WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE FIRMLY ENTRENCHED OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING. WITH THE RIDGE AXIS SAGGING ACROSS THE UPPER RED RIVER BASIN AND SOUTHERN ARKANSAS. DEW POINTS ALSO REMAIN ON THE HIGH SIDE. WITH THE HIGH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES REMAINING HIGH AGAIN TODAY.
301 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015 HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL BE OVER THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY TODAY WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SLOWLY SOUTH TONIGHT REACHING THE NORTHERN NEBRASKA BORDER BY FRIDAY MORNING AND SOUTHERN NEBRASKA BY EARLY FRIDAY EVENING.
600 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015 HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL BE OVER THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY TODAY WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SLOWLY SOUTH TONIGHT REACHING THE NORTHERN NEBRASKA BORDER BY FRIDAY MORNING AND SOUTHERN NEBRASKA BY EARLY FRIDAY EVENING.
VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours in return flow under persistent ridging aloft.
STUCK WITH THE WRF-ARW SOLUTION, WHICH HAS THE HIGHEST POPS THIS MORNING ALONG AND SOUTH OF AN EAST/WEST LINE BISECTING DODGE CITY. HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS IN THIS AREA, HOWEVER, THE ATMOSPHERE MIGHT BE PRETTY WELL WORKED OVER AT THIS POINT IN TIME. AS SUCH, HAVE GONE WITH A MIDDLE TO SLIGHTLY COOLER SOLUTION WITH WIDESPREAD 80S FOR HIGHS.
111 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015 A FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. THE HIGH WILL GRADUALLY MOVE OFF THE COAST TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE WEST FRIDAY.
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT STILL OFF TO OUR NW BUT WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS.
246 AM MDT THU JUL 30 2015 UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL RETROGRADE TO THE GREAT BASIN TODAY AND TONIGHT.
AS AN INFLUX OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE EAST IS EXPECTED TO BRING AN INCREASED CHANCE OF RAIN AND UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS A BIT OVER EAST TX. THE HOT TEMPERATURES AND SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS WILL RESULT IN A SUFFICIENT PROFILE FOR A FEW STORMS TO PRODUCE WIND GUSTS WELL IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH. UPPER RIDGING ALOFT CONTINUES TO HEAT TEMPS TO NEAR TRIPLE DIGITS SO WILL CONTINUE TO NEED MENTION THE HOT CONDITIONS IN THE SPS/HWO.
329 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 80S ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY LOWS TONIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. OTRWS ENLARGED SHRT TERM DIURNAL TO ACCOUNT FOR XPCD DECENT MIXING THIS AFTN AND DECOUPLING OVERNIGHT W/A LEAN TWD WARMER MOS MAX TEMPS/COOLER MINS TONIGHT. HUDSON BAY UPPER LOW WILL KEEP THE REGION IN A SOMEWHAT TURBULENT PATTERN AS SEVERAL WAVES AND SURFACE REFLECTIONS TAKE AIM ON THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD.
316 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015 SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING LOWER HUMIDITY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN OVERNIGHT DROPPING TEMPERATURES A BIT BELOW AVERAGE UNDER CLEAR SKIES.
420 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SET UP OVER EASTERN CANADA INTO THIS WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SET UP AT THE SURFACE ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDING BEHIND IT. AT 4 AM THE COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED ACROSS EASTERN LAKE ERIE AND NW PA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE TODAY IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT THAT CAME THROUGH OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS WILL EXIT EASTERN AREAS THIS MORNING WITH SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL BE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.
448 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015 SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE RIDGES EARLY THIS MORNING AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING LOWER HUMIDITY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES LATER TODAY INTO FRIDAY. WIND SHIFT WITH FRONT IS THROUGH PITTSBURGH AND WILL CROSS RIDGES AROUND 12Z. BAND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS JUST AHEAD OF FRONT WILL EXIT RIDGES EARLY THIS MORNING WITH MUCH DRIER AIR WORKING IN THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN OVERNIGHT DROPPING TEMPERATURES A BIT BELOW AVERAGE UNDER CLEAR SKIES.
PARTICULARLY TO THE EAST OF A SFC TROF AXIS WHICH TAKES SHAPE ALONG THE NORTHERN SLOPES OF THE RATON RIDGE THROUGH KLHX. TO PERHAPS SOME POCKETS OF 1000 J/KG OR A LITTLE BETTER EAST OF THE SFC TROF AXIS ACROSS THE PLAINS. BUILDING UPPER HIGH ALOFT CUTS BACK 0-6KM SHEARS. UPPER RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO THE GREAT BASIN CONTINUES TO BUILD NORTH AND WEST WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH PROGGED ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEW MEXICO FRIDAY NIGHT. MONSOONAL MOISTURE AND MINOR DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE BUILDING RIDGE WILL KEEP ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST THURSDAY NIGHT. WILL SEE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN LATE FRIDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
135 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015 A COLD FRONT CROSSES OVERNIGHT. MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA LATER TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. MODELS INDICATE MOST OF ANY CONVECTION WILL BE WITH A PREFRONTAL TROUGH WITH LITTLE ACTIVITY ALONG THE COLD FRONT ITSELF. WILL KEEP MINDS TONIGHT ON THE HIGHER SIDE OF GUIDANCE.
LINGERING DEBRIS CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING QUICKLY OVERNIGHT AS WELL AS RECOVERED DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S ALREADY. UPPER LEVEL TROF ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL PULL A LITTLE FARTHER EASTWARD ALLOWING THE RIDGE BUILD INTO THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE.
It appears as though we will have a bit more cloud cover compared to yesterday morning, and this may act to keep temperatures a few degrees cooler compared to yesterday.
WARMING TREND THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS UPSTREAM OF THE AREA.
646 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015 SUFFICIENT ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA AND AN APPROACHING WEAK COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. EASTERN UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES A BIT AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. RIDGE SHIFTING A LITTLE FURTHER WEST. WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE TODAY.
401 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015 (TODAY AND TONIGHT) THE CENTER OF THE UPPER HIGH WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PRIMARILY OVER THE PANHANDLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. MORNING LOWS TOMORROW WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
WITH A MORE ISOLATED COVERAGE POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS ON FRIDAY. WHEREAS THE GFS SHOWS THE RIDGE REMAINING STRONG. VFR CONDITIONS NEXT 24 HOURS AND BEYOND AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. VERY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH HUMIDITIES DROPPING INTO THE LOW TEENS EACH AFTERNOON. AND FOR THE HIGH COUNTRY AND PLAINS ON FRIDAY.
202 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THE MIDWEST ON THURSDAY AND A DRIER AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO LAST INTO THE WEEKEND FOR THE OHIO VALLEY.
1248 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015 A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL ARKANSAS.
TO THE LOWER 90S ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER. ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA WHERE A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL HAVE THE BIGGEST IMPACT.
GIVEN THE LOW DEW POINTS. TEMPS TONIGHT SHOULD STILL FALL INTO THE LOWER AND MID 60S. SURFACE/850 TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH LATER IN THE DAY INTO THE EARLY EVENING BUT SOUNDINGS LOOK EVEN LESS IMPRESSIVE THAN YESTERDAY. 925 TEMPS SHOW AROUND 20-22C WITH THE GFS SHOWING HIGHER 925 TEMPS WHICH IS REFLECTED WITH THE HIGHER MOS NUMBERS AS WELL.
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER VALLEYS WILL INCREASE TO THE MIDDLE 80S TO NEAR 90 DEGREES.
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BUT MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. COOLER WEATHER RETURNS ON FRIDAY AS THE COLD FRONT EXITS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT.
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE SIMILAR TO OR SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN YESTERDAY WITH 70S EXPECTED AT THE COAST AND 80S AND 90S INLAND.
/ISSUED 316 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015/ Upper ridge centered over the Red River this morning will build back across the west the next couple of days becoming centered over NM. This may result in slightly cooler wx for much of the area and put the region into NW flow aloft. Temperatures will continue to slowly trend downward the next few days as ridge moves back to the west. These storms are moving around the west side of the upper ridge but most of these will stay north of the area today only skirting the northern CWA.
PERSISTENT NWRLY FLOW ALOFT AND NRLY/NWRLY SFC WINDS WILL RESULT IN A NOTICEABLE DROP IN DEWPOINTS FROM THE TEPID 70S TO THE LOWER 60S. IN THE LOWER 90S SOUTH AND UPPER 80S NORTH THROUGH THE PERIOD.
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND NEUTRAL TO WEAKLY CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL HELP ENSURE THIS FACT. EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER PATTERN INTO THE WEST RIDGE/EAST TROUGH CONFIGURATION IS UNDERWAY. AS THE LARGE UPPER LOW SPINS JUST SOUTH OF HUDSON BAY. AS THE RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND THE LOW WOBBLES OVER THE SAME GENERAL AREA. THE GFS TRIES TO BUILD THE RIDGE SLOWLY EASTWARD INTO THE PLAINS.
THAT FEATURE WOULD BE A COLD FRONT. NO REALLY ITS A COLD FRONT. OF COURSE IT IS LATE JULY SO REALLY ALL A COLD FRONT WILL DO THIS TIME OF THE YEAR IS PROVIDE THE AREA WITH A FEW DEGREES OF RELIEF. AT LEAST WITH THIS IT LOOKS LIKE OUR MID 70S SUMMER NIGHT DREAMS MAY BE A THING OF THE PAST AS DEWPOINTS WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER 60S AND MAYBE EVEN UPPER 50S BY FRIDAY MORNING.
These northerly winds will usher in slightly cooler temperatures and a much drier airmass. In fact, some areas may see dewpoints fall into the upper 50s this afternoon during peak mixing, which will feel quite nice given the high humidity values (dewpoints in the mid/upper 70s) we've experienced over the past few days. For tonight, skies will remain mostly clear and winds will go mostly calm as surface ridging continues to nudge into the region. Therefore, will go on the lower end of guidance for low temperatures which puts them in the low to mid 60s. Some of the typically cooler spots may even dip into the 50s tonight! Friday will nearly be a carbon copy of today. The good news is that dewpoints will once again be very comfortable as readings will remain in the lower 60s.
355 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING BRINGING SHOWERS AND THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. FOLLOWING THIS FRONT FRIDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER.
316 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015 Upper ridge centered over the Red River this morning will build back across the west the next couple of days becoming centered over NM. This may result in slightly cooler wx for much of the area and put the region into NW flow aloft. Temperatures will continue to slowly trend downward the next few days as ridge moves back to the west. These storms are moving around the west side of the upper ridge but most of these will stay north of the area today only skirting the northern CWA.
/ISSUED 341 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015/ THE AREA STILL REMAINS ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. RW MEDIUM AND LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT ON A COLD FRONT STALLING OVER SOUTH GA ON FRIDAY.
357 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING BRINGING SHOWERS AND THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. FOLLOWING THIS FRONT FRIDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER.
634 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015 SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG A COLD FRONT EAST OF PITTSBURG WILL EXIT THE REGION THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING LOWER HUMIDITY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES LATER TODAY INTO FRIDAY. WIND SHIFT WITH FRONT IS THROUGH PITTSBURGH AND WILL CROSS RIDGES AROUND 12Z. BAND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS JUST AHEAD OF FRONT WILL EXIT RIDGES EARLY THIS MORNING WITH MUCH DRIER AIR WORKING IN THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN OVERNIGHT DROPPING TEMPERATURES A BIT BELOW AVERAGE UNDER CLEAR SKIES.
509 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015 A COLD FRONT CROSSES OVERNIGHT. MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA LATER TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. MODELS INDICATE MOST OF ANY CONVECTION WILL BE WITH A PREFRONTAL TROUGH WITH LITTLE ACTIVITY ALONG THE COLD FRONT ITSELF. WILL KEEP MINDS TONIGHT ON THE HIGHER SIDE OF GUIDANCE. REALLY NOTHING HAPPENING UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM CLIMBING BACK TO THE 90 DEGREE MARK FOR THE LOWLANDS. DESPITE THE BROAD TROUGH ALOFT OVER THE AREA.
TEMPS EXPECTED TO REBOUND BACK NEAR TRIPLE DIGITS SAT/SUN BUT THE LOWER DEWPOINTS WILL BE A FACTOR IN KEEPING HEAT INDICIES BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. LONG RANGE MODELS ARE INDICATING THE FAIRLY STEADY STRUGGLE OF THE UPPER RIDGE OUT WEST TO REMAIN OUT WEST. 41 WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GULF LEADING TO SW-W-NW WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING WITH SPEEDS OF 6 TO 12 KNOTS.
GREAT LAKES POSITIONED ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF LOWER HEIGHTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLOSED LOW ANCHORING OVER HUDSON BAY. DEEP MIXING POTENTIAL TODAY AS DAYTIME HEATING UNDER FULL INSOLATION AND A COOLER 800-900 MB THERMAL LAYER ESTABLISHES A STEEP LOW LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT BY AFTERNOON. A MODEST NORTHWEST WIND STILL LEFT BEHIND WITH THE REGION POSITIONED BETWEEN THE DEEP LOW ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS.
104 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
UPPER HIGH TO REMAINED POSITIONED TO THE WEST OF THE FA THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. ECMWF FLATTENS THE RIDGE AS AS WAVE TRAVERSES THE CENTRAL PLAINS. BUT WILL LIKELY NOT BE AS HOT AS OBSERVED THE LAST WEEK GIVEN THE POSITIONING OF THE UPPER RIDGE TO THE WEST.
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL BE UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE THROUGH THIS PERIOD. WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THIS HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE FRIDAY, THERE WILL BE AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF A LATE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHWEST DESCHUTES COUNTY. HIGH TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE MID 90S TO 105 AT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS TODAY, THEN RISE ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO FRIDAY.
MOVING SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT BUT BECOMING LESS TOWARD DAYBREAK AS THE UPPER JET OUTRUNS THE SURFACE COLD FRONT. RADAR RETURNS ACROSS SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN ASSOCIATED WITH A SUBTLE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND UNDERNEATH THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL JET. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. SEVERAL FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE TROUGHS TRAVERSING THE RIDGE MAY BRING SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA THIS WEEKEND. A SUBTLE COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW FOR THURSDAY WITH A WIND SHIFT FROM WEST TO NORTHWEST DURING THE DAY.
THE AREA WILL BE LOCATED JUST AHEAD OF A SFC FRONT AND IN THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL AXIS. SFC BASED INSTABILITY WILL BE EXTREME TODAY WITH ALL THE HIGH SFC DEW PTS. THE MID LEVEL S/WV WILL BE SOUTH OF THE CWA AND THE MID LEVELS WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY MORE OF A FLAT RIDGE AXIS. DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND SUPPORT COOLER TEMPS FOR FRI MORNING AS WELL AS SAT MORNING. LIGHT MID LEVEL NW FLOW REGIME WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE REGION AS RIDGE HAS RETROGRADED AND BROAD TROFFINESS MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
649 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING BRINGING SHOWERS AND THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. FOLLOWING THIS FRONT FRIDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER.