Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Clouds will increase again later tonight into Friday from northwest to southeast as another compact low pressure system and surface cold front move south along the eastern edge of the Continental Divide.
Tonight will be unseasonably cold with lows well into the 20s, possibly dipping into the lower 20s east of the Red River Valley within Minnesota. Friday's temperatures will be similar to today's although perhaps slightly cooler.
931 PM EDT Thu May 7 2020 High pressure was building over the area this evening. The ridge will shift east of the Florida peninsula by Friday morning.
Southerly winds are expected to gradually strengthen through the night between high pressure over the southeast CONUS and deepening low pressure advancing east across the southern Plains. A cold front advancing across the region will be accompanied by a line of showers and thunderstorms through the afternoon and early evening and at this time carrying a 3 hour window within a TEMPO group at all terminals for TSRA. The high pressure that has been making this great weather will exit off to the east and move off the Georgia coast by tomorrow as an area of low pressure develops over north Texas this evening. Storms will increase through the late morning into the afternoon hours ahead of a strong cold front that is projected through southeast Texas tomorrow around sunset and exiting the south central Louisiana coast several hours later.
High pressure to the west of Utah will maintain and dry northwest flow aloft through the first half of the week.
While the air is not quite as dry as earlier and as was forecast, the low temperature forecast for tonight still looks pretty good.
/Issued 310 PM EDT Thu May 7 2020/ A cold front is forecast to move into the area Friday afternoon and exit Friday night.
The HRRR shows light showers developing in Middle Tennessee after 06Z, although the low levels are so dry that it will take time for rain rates to increase and cloud ceilings to build downward.
1011 PM CDT Thu May 7 2020 Rain continues to edge into the Midsouth from the west at midevening, ahead of a deepening upstream trof over the plains. In addition, the pressure gradient will be very tight behind the departing cold front which will cause winds to increase to 20-25 mph. Expect highs in the lower to mid 60s. Canadian high pressure will then quickly build into the Mid-South by Friday Night and will remain over the area for much of the weekend.
This afternoon a mid level trough was moving through western Kansas as shown on satellite and profilers. The passage of the mid level trough referenced above later tonight will bring an end to the precipitation across the area. High pressure then builds in for Friday with clearing skies in the morning. This will also bring another cold front through the area as well and temperatures may drop into the upper 30s across parts of northeast and north central Kansas.
Temperatures across the area were in the low to mid 60s with dewpoints in the upper 30s to mid 40s. The high pressure system which brought cooler temperatures to the area this morning (including some 30s in the valleys of the eastern Ozarks) has pushed to the east of the area and moisture was slowly returning to the western portion of the CWA. The Canadian high pressure system will be centered over the area on Friday night which will lighten the winds with a clearing sky bringing about good conditions for frost to form as temperatures will drop into the mid to upper 30s. With the warmer weather comes more instability and we'll see increasing thunderstorm chances, especially towards the middle of the week when a frontal boundary will become set up over the area.
S winds may weaken just ahead of a cold front this morning.
355 AM CDT Fri May 8 2020 A strong cold front is approaching the Midsouth. However, before the cooler, drier airmass arrives, expect a round of showers and thunderstorms today. This afternoon, as the cold front moves into Middle Tennessee and Central Mississippi, showers and thunderstorms will decrease in coverage.
Otherwise, cloud cover will diminish from west to east today as drier air builds in behind a cold front, and windy conditions will also develop. This system will move away from the region during the afternoon as a deep Canadian cyclone digs into the Great Lakes, bringing colder and drier air. As such, today's highs will struggle to climb out of the 40s, but may reach into the lower 50s south. This would keep areas downwind warmer than forecast. High pressure will build in from the west on Saturday for continued dry conditions. Southerly flow ahead of this low will allow temperatures to warm some with highs in the mid 50s (still below normal), but rain will also be likely.
This upper level feature will help push a cold front across Kentucky today and eventually eastern Kentucky this afternoon. This trough axis and cold front will advect some anomalously cold air for May, as 850 mb from the NAEFS/ECMWF showing around -3 standard deviations for this airmass. This could lead to light coating of snow on the higher mountain tops such as Black Mountain. This will set the stage for a cool and dry Saturday with highs in the lower 50s for most spots. However, the sun should help make Saturday feel much warmer compared to today into tonight.
/issued 1011 PM CDT Thu May 7 2020/ Rain continues to edge into the Midsouth from the west at midevening, ahead of a deepening upstream trof over the plains. In addition, the pressure gradient will be very tight behind the departing cold front which will cause winds to increase to 20-25 mph. Expect highs in the lower to mid 60s. Canadian high pressure will then quickly build into the Mid-South by Friday Night and will remain over the area for much of the weekend.
Upper level trough is moving east of the area this morning with rain ending from west to east near or shortly after sunrise. Slightly warmer Saturday afternoon as south to southwest low level flow develops with temperatures in the low 60s.
Updated 1140 PM MDT Thu May 7 2020 (08/06Z TAF Period) Clouds will increase again later tonight into Friday from northwest to southeast as another compact low pressure system and surface cold front move south along the eastern edge of the Continental Divide. These showers will mostly be focused along a Canadian cold front, which may cause a few thunderstorms to develop mainly over the eastern plains (possibly Blaine, Chouteau, and Fergus Counties) during the afternoon.
338 AM CDT Fri May 8 2020 An area of high pressure over the region is producing cool temperatures this morning with 8Z temps in the 30s. The high pressure will slowly drift eastward across the region today, bringing light winds and cool temperatures. The winds, along with warmer temperatures should limit the frost potential tonight. The latest model runs are several hours slower with the progression of the low pressure system with pcpn not reaching this CWA until closer to 12Z Saturday. Gusty northwesterly winds can be expected behind the low pressure with gusty possibly reaching advisory levels over the western CWA.
312 AM CDT Fri May 8 2020 A powerful cold front has moved through the region early this morning bringing widespread high winds to areas generally north of Texas Highway 114. All of this will also result in a much cooler day than yesterdays near record temperatures.
359 AM EDT Fri May 8 2020 Upper troughing extends through the northeastern U.
1002 PM MDT Thu May 7 2020 Satellite imagery early this afternoon shows an upper low over northeast Wyoming. This upper low will shift southeast into the central Plains tonight. A secondary cold front will push south across the area this evening. Have kept the high wind warning going for now.
Strong high pressure will then build south out of Canada into the northern and central Plains early Friday morning. This high will bring not only dry weather, but cooler temperatures into the region. Overnight low temperatures will easily drop into the low to mid 30s tonight. With light winds combined with this cooler air, frost is likely across the region. The high pressure will slowly drift south and east through Saturday keeping conditions dry but cooler. A weak low pressure system could impact portions of the region on Saturday.
High pressure will build into the Midwest tonight, with the center of the high sliding southward just west of the Mississippi River.
Another quick moving upper level trough and surface front will charge through the Northern and Central Plains Saturday.
343 AM CDT Fri May 8 2020 A band of showers/thunderstorms is moving through the region ahead of a cold front that will move through the area early today. Gusty north winds behind the front will diminish this evening with high pressure moving in and becoming centered over the area late tonight.
A few light sprinkles will shift east across the forecast area in the warm air advection pattern ahead of the system during the morning and then precipitation will become heavier with showers developing just ahead of the system cold front from late morning into the afternoon hours. JB Chattanooga Airport, TN 61 38 62 39 70 / 80 20 0 0 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 59 34 58 36 68 / 80 40 0 0 10 Oak Ridge, TN 58 34 58 36 68 / 90 30 0 0 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 58 32 53 32 64 / 90 60 0 0 20 NC.
Ahead of this streak as well a couple of upper level lows moving into the Midwest, we are seeing an broad area of rains just west of the region this hour. Expect coverage of rains to pick up through the morning hours, as we move into the favored quadrant for lift in that jet streak and as a surface cold front moves across the region. Despite ample sunshine and clear skies present throughout the day, expect afternoon highs to struggle into the mid to upper 50s as NW flow continues to pump cooler air into the region.
Confidence remains high that the area remains above freezing.
Sensitive vegetation is at risk Friday night into Saturday morning as temperatures dip down to near freezing temperatures. However, a weak warm front should push north into our southern counties this evening, allowing for the small possibility to see a lightning strike or two. Friday will be a cool and windy day as high pressure starts working its way toward our area.
314 AM EDT Fri May 8 2020 Low pressure will bring widespread rain today, with snow mixing in by evening. Improving jet dynamics with an approaching upper trough/reinforcing cold front will deepen moisture and improve ascent over the region today.
By this evening, all the showers will be gone and skies will clear out quickly from west to east as high pressure arrives. Some areas east of I-65 will eventually dip into the upper 20s by daybreak Saturday! Most of the Mid State will be covered by a Freeze Warning, except our far west and south counties where freezing temps will be more localized and brief.
Rain will end from the west to east as a cold front moves through the region, and should clear all TAF sites by the late morning hours. A developing cold front will approach overnight, and will provide a focus for convection. Much cooler than normal conditions are expected for Friday night.
1047 PM MDT Thu May 7 2020 Water vapor shows large amplitude ridge along the west coast with active northwest flow through the northern plains. Robust upper low is currently over the Black Hills, with next upper wave diving southeast across BC. Precip will continue through early evening, then quickly shift southeast of the region by midnight behind departing upper low. On Friday, short wave transitory ridge (in-between upper lows) will bring a short period of dry and mild conditions. Temps should be a bit colder with this low, and could bring a bit of snow onto the plains.
Still looks like temperatures will get down near and below freezing for most of the area. The exceptions will be where the urban heat island can keep things a few degrees warmer and at higher elevations where winds and mixing could help some. Cold start to Saturday will usher in next low pressure system driving likely PoP across much of the CWA into Saturday night.
The trailing cold front will sweep through GA today bringing showers and thunderstorms to the area this afternoon/evening.
The low will also pull colder air southward, and with a second wave out of the north on Saturday, there is some potential for snow across the higher terrain around Opheim on Saturday night.
Otherwise, much cooler conditions today and especially tonight, with lows by Saturday morning dropping well down into the 40s with some 30s likely across western and northern Oklahoma.
High pressure to the west of Utah will maintain and dry northwest flow aloft through Saturday.
High pressure will move from overhead, to the east Tonight. The high will move toward the east southeast during the day Friday, as moisture ahead of an approaching cold front results in increasing cloud cover from the northwest through the day. A cooler than normal night is expected Tonight, with readings away from the coast falling in the mid to upper 40s. Temperatures will moderate Friday, as the flow comes more from the south on the back side of the high, but will still be a little below normal with highs around 80. Cooler air will advect back in for Friday night into Saturday following the front with below normal readings, as the flow becomes more northwest to north.
311 AM CDT Fri May 8 2020 Pacific high pressure will move over wrn and ncntl Nebraska today followed by return flow and a warm front tonight. The HREF was the basis for an isolated chance of showers associated with the warm front across swrn Nebraska tonight. The next cold front will drop down out of Canada affecting wrn and ncntl Nebraska Saturday. The models have slowed this cold front down and this should allow a brief warm up across srn Nebraska with highs in the mid 60s.
339 AM MDT Fri May 8 2020 The Northern Rockies are wedged between a strong low pressure circulation well to our east and an amplifying ridge over the Pacific Northwest. As this feature makes its way south into Wyoming, high pressure will build south into central Montana. Combined with a warmer than normal thermal trough west of us over the west coast, easterly winds will develop later today.
625 AM CDT Fri May 8 2020 /12Z TAFS/ Strong north winds will be the main issue across West Central Texas terminals for today, with winds gusting over 35 knots at times behind a cold front. /issued 422 AM CDT Fri May 8 2020/ (Today and Tonight) Cold front moving into the northern and western Big Country as of 3 AM will shift quickly south across the remainder of the area by shortly after sunrise. Otherwise, much much cooler today with highs mainly in the 70s.
Cooler than normal weather will remain the theme through the weekend, starting today as northerly flow throughout the atmospheric profile combines with 850mb temperatures near to below 0C and mid level cold air advection. Expect another cool night tonight, but warmer west of Interstate 29 as WAA sets up ahead of an approaching wave and cirrus begins to move in. Issued a Frost Advisory for this region where temperatures have the best chance of falling to near the freezing mark. An initial round of light rain comes during the day Saturday with the cold front pushing through, as well as an additional chance for deformation zone light rain Saturday night. Accumulation seems unlikely given warm soil temperatures, but accumulations of less than a half inch cannot be ruled out at locally higher elevations such as the Buffalo Ridge.
A cold front across the middle Mississippi river valley and Ohio valley continues to sink southward into the Tennessee valley today. VFR conditions deteriorate this afternoon as rain showers increase ahead of a cold front. JB Chattanooga Airport, TN 60 37 61 38 70 / 90 0 0 0 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 61 34 57 36 67 / 90 10 0 0 10 Oak Ridge, TN 59 33 59 36 68 / 90 10 0 0 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 56 32 53 31 64 / 90 20 20 0 20 NC.
High-amplitude upper level ridge remains anchored over western North America this early morning. The ridge's axis is aligned right along the California coast, extending north into British Columbia and even Alaska. This ridge combined with synoptic-scale offshore flow (San Francisco to Winnemucca, NV surface pressure gradient presently at -6. In fact, some coastal towns may be a few degrees cooler compared to yesterday. Widespread cooling will return to the region on Saturday as the ridge axis moves inland. Temperatures will have a difficult time getting out of the middle/upper 70s or many interior communities such as Santa Rosa, Concord, and Livermore; a solid 10 to 20 degrees cooler compared to Friday.
Even with this drop, the low temperatures will likely not be as cold as they were expected to be this morning. As a result, we are looking for the high temperatures to remain in the 40s across much of the area.
621 AM CDT Fri May 8 2020 Dry air and trapped moisture beneath 1031 mb high pressure has spawned patchy fog across wrn Nebraska. Pacific high pressure will move over wrn and ncntl Nebraska today followed by return flow and a warm front tonight. The HREF was the basis for an isolated chance of showers associated with the warm front across swrn Nebraska tonight. The next cold front will drop down out of Canada affecting wrn and ncntl Nebraska Saturday. The models have slowed this cold front down and this should allow a brief warm up across srn Nebraska with highs in the mid 60s.
Generally, readings are in the 30s with several subfreezing areas across the northern CWA and here and there across the south. Temperatures will be cooler than yesterday and temps aloft suggest only 40s for highs most areas, but southwestern MN could reach the low 50s. Ridge axis will slide across MN and WI tonight and winds will quickly decouple this evening.
Strong winds associated with a trough passing well to the north of the state have subsided overnight, and typical light diurnal flow has resumed at most surface stations. Forecast soundings do not saturate the lower level much at all with this event, so have continued to keep the forecast dry up north through Friday night. Temperatures will increase by 2-3 degrees from Friday's highs as a ridge builds over the Great Basin and heights slowly rise over the western slope. The current 00Z 250mb synoptic chart shows the entrance region of the polar front jet is located over northeastern Utah and western Colorado with the highest winds at 80 kts.
Continued quiet and dry with temperatures becoming warmer through at least Saturday.
These showers will mostly be focused along a Canadian cold front, which may cause a few thunderstorms to develop mainly over the eastern plains (possibly Blaine, Chouteau, and Fergus Counties) during the afternoon.
856 AM EDT Fri May 8 2020 Clear skies and a cool start to our Friday as high pressure dominates weather conditions across the peninsula. The low humidities and the breezy afternoon conditions will result in elevated fire weather conditions, especially across interior sections of our area. /issued 359 AM EDT Fri May 8 2020/ Upper troughing extends through the northeastern U.
635 AM CDT Fri May 8 2020 A band of showers/thunderstorms is moving through the region ahead of a cold front that will move through the area early today. Gusty north winds behind the front will diminish this evening with high pressure moving in and becoming centered over the area late tonight.
950 AM EDT Fri May 8 2020 High pressure over the west Atlantic will shift farther offshore with ridge axis pushing south of central Florida by sunset as cold front moves into the southeast United States. After a cooler than normal start, this will allow for warmer temperatures today, with highs reaching the mid 80s over the interior and low 80s along the coast where the east coast sea breeze is able to develop. (Previous Discussion) Retreating high pressure ridge will allow winds to veer from SE this morning to S and SW tonight.
339 AM MDT Fri May 8 2020 The Northern Rockies are wedged between a strong low pressure circulation well to our east and an amplifying ridge over the Pacific Northwest.
/issued 413 AM CDT Fri May 8 2020/ The big story this morning will be the very strong winds associated with a powerful cold front moving through the area. This will be some of the strongest winds we have seen with a cold front in a while, especially the Permian Basin. It also looks like strong downsloping will occur across the Marfa Plateau so have included them in the High Wind Warning. Winds will diminish this afternoon with temperatures much cooler.
422 AM CDT Fri May 8 2020 (Today and Tonight) Cold front moving into the northern and western Big Country as of 3 AM will shift quickly south across the remainder of the area by shortly after sunrise. Otherwise, much much cooler today with highs mainly in the 70s.
528 AM CDT Fri May 8 2020 Dry air and trapped moisture beneath 1031 mb high pressure has spawned patchy fog across wrn Nebraska. Pacific high pressure will move over wrn and ncntl Nebraska today followed by return flow and a warm front tonight. The HREF was the basis for an isolated chance of showers associated with the warm front across swrn Nebraska tonight. The next cold front will drop down out of Canada affecting wrn and ncntl Nebraska Saturday. The models have slowed this cold front down and this should allow a brief warm up across srn Nebraska with highs in the mid 60s.
413 AM CDT Fri May 8 2020 The big story this morning will be the very strong winds associated with a powerful cold front moving through the area. This will be some of the strongest winds we have seen with a cold front in a while, especially the Permian Basin. It also looks like strong downsloping will occur across the Marfa Plateau so have included them in the High Wind Warning. Winds will diminish this afternoon with temperatures much cooler.
304 AM MDT Fri May 8 2020 Current surface map places high pressure across the western Dakotas. Thermal profiles support snow in the higher elevations of the Black Hills.
/issued 355 AM CDT Fri May 8 2020/ A strong cold front is approaching the Midsouth. However, before the cooler, drier airmass arrives, expect a round of showers and thunderstorms today. This afternoon, as the cold front moves into Middle Tennessee and Central Mississippi, showers and thunderstorms will decrease in coverage.
Highs today will be rather cool, mainly topping out in the lower 50s for most sites across the CWA. Cool & unsettled weather may persist into Saturday given an active northwesterly flow pattern on the back side of deep troughing over the north central and northeastern US.
Overall, forcing is rather weak until the main upper low/cold front arrive later tonight. Current surface map places high pressure across the western Dakotas. Thermal profiles support snow in the higher elevations of the Black Hills.
312 AM MDT Fri May 8 2020 A cold front will track through the region today with increasing chances for rain showers by the afternoon into tonight. Along with these colder temperatures, look for frost potential and associated impacts, especially at night with lows around or below freezing.
However, strong northerly winds behind a cold front remain in place. /issued 312 AM CDT Fri May 8 2020/ A powerful cold front has moved through the region early this morning bringing widespread high winds to areas generally north of Texas Highway 114. All of this will also result in a much cooler day than yesterdays near record temperatures.
626 AM CDT Fri May 8 2020 A cold front moving across the region to generate VCTS conditions across I-20 corridors at the start of the period.
739 AM EDT Fri May 8 2020 Low pressure will bring widespread rain today, with snow mixing in by evening. Improving jet dynamics with an approaching upper trough/reinforcing cold front will deepen moisture and improve ascent over the region today.
This trend should continue for the next several hours until a cold front moves through and brings cooler and drier air. Skies will gradually clear behind the cold front, however strong northerly winds (between 15 to 25 mph and gusts near or above 30 mph at times) will keep temperatures from warming up much. High pressure will return to the area for the weekend, and will help keep pleasant conditions in the forecast.