Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1044 AM EDT SUN JUN 14 2015 A WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK TODAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK AND SPREAD EAST TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. WARM FRONT LIFTING ACROSS WESTERN NY THIS MORNING WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS FORMING ALONG THE FRONT. THE EXPECTATION AT THE START OF THE PERIOD IS FOR A RELATIVE LULL IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AS THE LOWER TROPOSPHERIC FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES/NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY. THE PERSISTENT MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS WILL SUSTAIN SOME SEMBLANCE OF LOW LEVEL W-SW FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY/SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY. WESTERN NEW YORK WILL REMAIN ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THE BELT OF STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL WESTERLIES ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEP UPPER LOW TRACKING THROUGH HUDSON BAY.
847 AM MST SUN JUN 14 2015 THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TODAY ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF GILA COUNTY. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME SITUATED OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THIS WEEK LEADING TO SEASONABLY HOT CONDITIONS. WITH RIDGING STARTING TO BUILD ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA. LATEST HI-RES MODELS AND THEIR ASSOCIATED ENSEMBLES INDICATE A CONTINUED CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH/EAST OF PHOENIX. BLENDED BIAS CORRECTED GUIDANCE POINTS SQUARELY AT 105-106 IN PHOENIX WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER VALUES AT YUMA. BIGGER STORY WILL BE THE BUILDING HEAT THIS WEEK AS THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE SETTLES ACROSS SOUTHERN AZ.
WITH UPPER LOW REMAINING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLOUDY IN MANY AREAS NOW WITH TEMPS RANGING FROM FROM THE LOW TO MID 50S ACROSS NORTHEAST WY TO NEAR 70 OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD. COOLER AIR IN PLACE BEHIND THE BOUNDARY WILL KEEP TEMPS BELOW AVERAGE IN MANY AREAS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF NORTHEAST WY AND THE BLACK HILLS TO THE MID 80S OVER TRIPP COUNTY.
HOTTER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE COMING WEEK AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA.
AND WITH THE BUILDING MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. SO NORTHERN AREAS THAT ARE ON THE PERIFERY OF THE RIDGE WILL HAVE LOW TO SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS/TSTMS AT BEST THIS AFTERNOON.
DRY AND COOLER WEATHER EXPECTED TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH.
LATEST SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVERAGE ALONG WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING WHILE CURRENT TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE LOWER LEVELS MIXING OUT TO 4-5KFT SO EVEN WITH THE SATURATED SOUNDING.
1054 AM EDT SUN JUN 14 2015 ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST INTO MID WEEK. AS AN INLAND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH LATE WEEK. THE STRONG RIDGE OVERHEAD ENHANCING MID LEVEL WARMTH/SUBSIDENCE ALONG WITH POOR LAPSE RATES ONCE AGAIN.
MEANWHILE FURTHER SOUTH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN IS PRODUCING SHOWERS AND STORMS JUST SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF GRANT COUNTY. MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE CAUGHT BETWEEN THE COLD FRONT OVER NORTHWEST MINNESOTA. THE COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE AREA THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH. MEANWHILE A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN WESTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER TODAY AND OVERNIGHT.
A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFF OF THE WEST COAST. A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA HAS COMPRESSED THE RIDGE OFF OF THE WEST COAST DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS. PREVIOUS TRENDS HAVE POINTED TOWARD A RIDGE BUILDING OFF OF THE WEST COAST BY LATE WEEK THAT WOULD RESULT IN AN INLAND WARMING TREND. THE LATEST GFS/ECMWF NOW POINT TOWARD CONTINUED ZONAL FLOW WITH THE BUILDING RIDGE DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
1159 AM EDT SUN JUN 14 2015 UPDATE/MARINE LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN TODAY BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE LOW MOVES EAST ON MONDAY WITH SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN TO NEAR JACKSON. THE LOW SHOULD PIVOT EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST QUARTER OF LOWER MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME ADDITIONAL AIRMASS RECOVERY POSSIBLE IN THE WAKE OF THE CURRENT CONVECTION.
THIS WILL BE PLENTY OF MOISTURE TO CONTINUE DIURNALLY INDUCED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH MONDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL EXPAND INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THROUGH MID WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL EXPAND INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BRINGING AN INLAND WARMING TREND THROUGH MID WEEK WITH A GRADUALLY SHALLOWER MARINE LAYER. SCT CU DEVELOPING OVER THE MOUNTAIN RIDGES AND HIGH DESERT THIS AFTERNOON AND DISSIPATING AROUND SUNSET.
/ISSUED 543 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015/ LATEST UPPER AIR ANALYSIS/WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUED TO SHOW A DEEP LAYER RIDGE OVER THE SE CONUS. WITH BROAD TROFFING OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. AN UPPER TROF WAS ALSO NOTED OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF JUST NORTH OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. AS THE REGION REMAINS WITHIN A LONG FETCH OF DEEP TROPICAL MSTR FLOWING AROUND THE RIDGE TO THE EAST.
SOUTHWARD SAGGING SFC COLD FRONT. MONDAY WILL BE DRY AND MUCH COOLER WITH TEMPERATURES BLO AVERAGE.
QUASI-ZONAL/CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT TODAY AS A DEEP AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA. DRY AND COOLER WEATHER EXPECTED TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH.
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE TRENDS/WSR-88D VAD WIND PROFILES PLACE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES AND A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE NEAR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA THIS MORNING. LARGE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.
A BROAD QUASISTATIONARY TROUGH CONTINUES TO BE SITUATED OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS THIS MORNING. WILL KEEP AT LEAST SOME SMALL POPS IN THE WEST BUT WILL CONTINUE THE CURRENT FORECAST TREND OF KEEPING THE HIGHEST POPS IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. FROM THE LOWER 80S FOR HIGHS TODAY TO THE MID/UPPER 60S TONIGHT.
ALSO, THE MORNING SOUNDINGS SHOW SLIGHTLY WARMER MID- LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND LOWER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES COMPARED TO THE PAST FEW DAYS. A DEEP LAYER RIDGE WILL MOVE LITTLE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES WITH ITS EXTENSION INTO THE ATLANTIC RESULTING IN EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. AT THE SAME TIME, A BROAD LOW PRESSURE OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IS FORECAST TO MOVE TO THE NORTHWEST INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
EXPECT THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN TO BE ACROSS THE WEST AND THE LOWEST POPS IN THE EAST WHERE THE RIDGE INFLUENCE WILL BE THE BEST. MODELS SHOWS THAT THE MEAN RIDGE FROM THE EAST WILL HAVE A STRONGER INFLUENCE ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY. THIS WILL BE REFLECTED BY THE LOWER POPS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE REGION. TEMPS WILL BE GENERALLY SEASONAL WITH HIGHS AROUND 90 AND LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S.
1041 AM EDT SUN JUN 14 2015 A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS SLOWLY SINKING SOUTH AND WILL STALL OUT NEAR NEAR THE POTOMAC RIVER TODAY BEFORE MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES BY TO THE NORTH.
RIDGING ALOFT WILL HELP TO SUPPRESS CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON.
SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL BE PRETTY ACTIVE WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGING RAIN SHOWERS TO THE AREA. THIS LOW WILL BE SLOW MOVING AND PASS FROM THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AREA SLOWLY TO OUR SOUTH.
1252 PM EDT SUN JUN 14 2015 HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON. A WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO THE AREA TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.
THEY NOW ALL SHOW THE RIDGING A BIT MORE SUBSTANTIAL THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH WITH THE TRAIN OF WEAK ENERGY WAVES STAYING FURTHER NORTH THAN LAST NIGHT/S VERSION.
1045 AM EDT SUN JUN 14 2015 FORECAST APPEARS IN GOOD SHAPE WITH STRONG RIDGING ALOFT AND MID LEVEL WARMING LIKELY KEEPING A LID ON CONVECTION TODAY FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS WOULD BE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG THE VIRGINIA/WEST VIRGINIA BORDERS AND PERHAPS OVER OUR NORTHEAST COUNTIES. FURTHER AWAY FROM THE CORE OF THE UPPER RIDGE. THEY NOW ALL SHOW THE RIDGING A BIT MORE SUBSTANTIAL THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH WITH THE TRAIN OF WEAK ENERGY WAVES STAYING FURTHER NORTH THAN LAST NIGHT/S VERSION.
A S/W TROF WILL BRING SCT SHOWERS TO FAR EC WI BEFORE SHIFTING EAST OF THE REGION BY MIDDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER H8 AIR WILL PUSH INTO THE THE REGION FROM THE WEST. PREFERRED BLEND OF MODEL GUIDANCE SUPPORTS MIN TEMPS RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 50S NORTH TO THE LOWER 60S SOUTH. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION AND GENERATE SCT SHRA/TSRA IN A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS.
IT WAS STABLE IN THE LOWER LAYERS OF THE ATMOSPHERE BASED ON RAP SOUNDINGS. UPPER AIR PLOTS SHOWED A 700 MB COLD FRONT DROPPING S THROUGH MT AT 12Z WITH TEMPERATURES BELOW ZERO OVER N MT. IT WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN IT HAS BEEN DUE TO THE POOR MIXING. UPPER LEVEL JET CORE WILL PROGRESSIVELY MOVE THE UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN MANITOBA EASTWARD BY MONDAY. THIS WILL STABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE AND HELP BRING IN A COOLER AIR MASS. MAINLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. MONDAY LOOKS DRY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ATTEMPTS TO BUILD OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.
1237 PM EDT SUN JUN 14 2015 A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA ACROSS LAKE ERIE TODAY.
MORNING WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY CLEARLY SHOWS A ZONAL PATTERN HAS SET UP ACROSS THE NORTHERN PACIFIC AS A SERIES OF UPPER LOWS SPIN OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA AND THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. HOWEVER, THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE IS BECOMING MORE STABLE AND MAY NOT LET GO OF ITS MOISTURE INFLUX. IN THE LONG RANGE MODELS ARE INDICATING A RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE WEST COAST FOR THE WEEKEND. THEY DO VARY ON HOW STRONG THE RIDGE WILL BE, BUT A RIDGE NONETHELESS.
LESS CLOUDS AND FOG TO START OUT WITH THIS MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE REALLY BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE AREA.
716 AM EDT SUN JUN 14 2015 A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA ACROSS LAKE ERIE TODAY.
TEMPERATURES A BIT WARMER ON SUN AND MON. WEAK UPPER RIDGING COUPLED WITH THE WEAKER ONSHORE FLOW WILL RESULT IN WARMER TEMPS TODAY. WITH MODEL H8 TEMPS AROUND 14C THIS AFTERNOON OVER INLAND VALLEYS SUGGESTING HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN SOME MARINE CLOUDS PUSHING INTO THE COAST RANGE MON MORNING AND POTENTIALLY THROUGH THE LOWER GAPS IN THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST RANGE.
This should mainly affect the northern third to half of our area, and this is where we have the higher PoPs.
THE COMBINATION OF A WEAK UPPER TROUGH/WEAKNESS IN THE 500MB HGT FIELD (GFS DETERMINISTIC). LATEST GUIDANCE BRINGS THIS YUCATAN SYSTEM TO THE MID/UPR TEXAS COAST ON OR ABOUT TUE STEARED BY A BROAD RIDGE OVER THE SE CONUS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4" WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 5" OR MORE ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH WED WITH THE HIGHEST QPF ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE EASTERN COASTAL BEND.
A DEEP LAYER RIDGE WILL MOVE LITTLE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES WITH ITS EXTENSION INTO THE ATLANTIC RESULTING IN EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. AT THE SAME TIME, A BROAD LOW PRESSURE OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IS FORECAST TO MOVE TO THE NORTHWEST INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
BUT IT IS CERTAINLY MUCH WARMER THAN NORMAL. A STRONG RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER MID TN. MORE SUBSIDENCE MEANS WARMER TEMPERATURES AND LOWER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 90S FOR MOST AREAS. IT WILL BE A VERY MUGGY NIGHT WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 70S.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINED OVER THE SOUTHEAST GULF COAST STATES AND A TROPICAL SYSTEM WAS LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUED TO TRANSPORT A PLETHORA OF TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
UPPER RIDGE WILL STILL EXERT ITS INFLUENCE LEAVING IT HOT AND MUGGY WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.
958 AM PDT SUN JUN 14 2015 A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED FOR INLAND AREAS THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. SLIGHT COOLING IS POSSIBLE LATER THIS WEEK AS A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS TO THE NORTH. THE BEACHES AND IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN A JUNE GLOOM TYPE PATTERN FOR TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE AREA AND CLAMPS DOWN ON TOP OF THE MARINE LAYER. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE AREA WILL BRING A WARMING TREND.
1056 AM EDT SUN JUN 14 2015 HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE TODAY. A WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO THE AREA TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.
THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TODAY ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF GILA COUNTY. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME SITUATED OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THIS WEEK LEADING TO SEASONABLY HOT CONDITIONS. BIGGER STORY WILL BE THE BUILDING HEAT THIS WEEK AS THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE SETTLES ACROSS SOUTHERN AZ.
747 AM EDT SUN JUN 14 2015 AVIATION LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN TODAY BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE LOW MOVES EAST ON MONDAY WITH SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN.
SHORT TERM UPDATE - THE TROUGH NEAR THE YUCATAN WILL CONTINUE TO MARCH NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WITH LOW LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS FLORIDA DOMINATING THE PATTERN. EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO TREND DOWNWARDS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS A TROUGH NEAR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA CONTINUES TO PULL FURTHER NORTHWESTWARD AWAY FROM THE THE KEYS.
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN YESTERDAY AS FURTHER IN THE WARM SECTOR.
A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFF OF THE WEST COAST. A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA HAS COMPRESSED THE RIDGE OFF OF THE WEST COAST DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS. PREVIOUS TRENDS HAVE POINTED TOWARD A RIDGE BUILDING OFF OF THE WEST COAST BY LATE WEEK THAT WOULD RESULT IN AN INLAND WARMING TREND. THE LATEST GFS/ECMWF NOW POINT TOWARD CONTINUED ZONAL FLOW WITH THE BUILDING RIDGE DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND LOW PRESSURE INLAND WILL RESULT IN GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST.
717 AM EDT SUN JUN 14 2015 A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.
THE 8 AM EDT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A RIDGE ACROSS SOUTH AL AND GA. FORTUNATELY DEWPOINTS ARE LIKELY TO FALL TO THE LOWER TO MID 60S IN THE HEAT OF THE DAY, REDUCING MAX HEAT INDEX VALUES TO THE UPPER 90S.
VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY MAY BE SHOWING AT LEAST SOME MID LEVEL CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LOW. TRANSITIONING TO THUNDERSTORMS WITH EARLY AFTERNOON HEATING INTO THE LOWER 80S.
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER AND WARMER TEMPERATURES THROUGH MONDAY.
1016 AM EDT SUN JUN 14 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE ACROSS THE STATE FROM THE NE AS THE DISTURBANCE OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA MOVES NW OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING OVER THE AREA FROM THE NE WITH THE DISTURBANCE IN PLACE OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WILL KEEP E/SE FLOW OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE MAINLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN NEVADA AND NORTHWEST ARIZONA TODAY BEFORE A DRY. 15Z HRRR SHOWS FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WEST AND SOUTH OF LAS VEGAS WITH THE POTENTIAL OF STORMS MOVING ACROSS LAS VEGAS BETWEEN 1 AND 3 PM.
729 AM EDT SUN JUN 14 2015 HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE TODAY. A WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO THE AREA TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.
710 AM EDT SUN JUN 14 2015 A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA ACROSS LAKE ERIE TODAY.
719 AM EDT SUN JUN 14 2015 ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST INTO MID WEEK. AS AN INLAND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH LATE WEEK. THE STRONG RIDGE OVERHEAD ENHANCING MID LEVEL WARMTH/SUBSIDENCE ALONG WITH POOR LAPSE RATES ONCE AGAIN.
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE SURFACE COLD FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH WILL BRING COOLER.
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE IS OVER THE GA/SC COAST AND WILL CONTINUE TO RETROGRADE WEST. HIGHS ARE ALREADY IN THE LOWER 80S ACROSS THE TN VALLEY. HIGHER PWATS AND BETTER MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS WEST OF I-65 ON THE BACK EDGE OF THE HIGH. DAYTIME HEATING WILL BE THE LIFT SOURCE AS TEMPS WARM UP INTO THE LOWER 90S. HEAT INDEX VALUES RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO UPPER 90S TODAY AND WILL BE WARMER TOMORROW.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD REDEVELOP INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN AND EVENTUALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS.
Water Vapor imagery is indc a trough in the Rockies with ridging across the Southeast US. The threat of convection will continue into the middle of the work week as the trough over the Rockies inches east and weak impulses eject over the High Plains.
613 AM CDT Sun Jun 14 2015 An upper level ridge of high pressure remains over the east coast as an upper level trough remains over the western U.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY.
/ISSUED 1015 PM CST MON NOV 30 2015/ ISSUED A FREEZING FOG ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN TX PANHANDLE OVERNIGHT. LIGHT SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND IT ARE EXPECTED TO ADVECT SOME OF THIS HIGHER SURFACE MOISTURE NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT. WITH TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING OVERNIGHT. SOME LIGHT ICE ACCRETION WILL BE POSSIBLE WHERE THE FREEZING FOG IS MOST DENSE. /ISSUED 307 PM CST MON NOV 30 2015/ CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH AND EAST TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH MID WEEK.
1247 AM EST TUE DEC 1 2015 A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING BEFORE A COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY.
328 AM CST TUE DEC 1 2015 REINFORCING COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR REGION EARLY THIS MORNING BUT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO FIRE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE 850MB FRONT. VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES TODAY WITH ENERGY SPINNING ALONG THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF THE DISTURBANCE MOVING OUR WAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MISS VALLEY THIS EVENING. THIS WILL HELP TO DRY THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE OUT ACROSS OUR NW ZONES LATER TODAY WITH THIS DRYING TREND PUSHING SOUTH AND EAST BY THIS EVENING.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE SOUTH THROUGH THE CAROLINAS.
/issued 245 PM CST MON NOV 30 2015/ Latest WV imagery shows the upper trough moving thru Nebraska, on its way to wreaking a little winter havoc on MN over the next couple of days.
409 AM EST TUE DEC 1 2015 WEAK LOW PRESSURE OFF THE OUTER BANKS WILL LIFT NORTHEAST TODAY.
1120 PM EST MON NOV 30 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SLOWLY EAST. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY TUESDAY NIGHT.
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW DEEPENS AS IT TREKS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES ARE BY TONIGHT. HAVE GONE WITH A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES AS GOOD CLOUD COVER AND LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP BOTH DAYTIME HIGHS AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WARMER THAN NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
THE SIOUXLAND UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE UPPER MS RIVER BY 00Z WITH MAINLY NEUTRAL BUT SOME PATCHY FORCING AT BEST INTO IA AS IT PULLS AWAY. THE GFS ALSO DEPICTS THE DRY SLOT WRAPPING AROUND BACK INTO FAR NWRN IA BY AFTERNOON SO A BRIEF FLIP BACK TO FREEZING DRIZZLE IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THERE. ROAD TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO REBOUND WELL ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE AFTERNOON AND PRECIP RATES ARE NOT ANTICIPATED TO BE HIGH ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY THAT EITHER.
PLANNING AN ALTERNATE FOR FLIGHTS BEFORE 15Z IS LIKELY A GOOD COURSE OF ACTION DESPITE THE LOW CONFIDENCE IN LIFR. FURTHER SATURATION OVERNIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR JUST BELOW FREEZING SHOULD LEAD TO MORE WIDESPREAD FOG. SLIGHTLY WARMER SOUTH COMPARED TO NORTH WHERE A WEAK SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE EDGING SOUTHWARD LATE IN THE DAY.
RESIDUAL WRAP AROUND MOISTURE FROM THE CLOSED LOW NOW CENTERED OVER CENTRAL NEBRASKA CONTINUES TO BRING SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES TO MANY MOUNTAIN TOWNS IN WESTERN COLORADO. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR THIS EVENING AS DRIER STABLE AIR FILTERS INTO THE LOW LEVELS. WARM ADVECTION ALOFT BEGINS CONTINUES AS A RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.
A weak cold front moving through after midnight may limit cooling by a degree or so, but most areas should still fall in the lower to mid 30s. Temperatures will be at or slightly below the freezing mark along and north of a Sterling City.
NO ADJUSTMENTS TO THE GOING FORECAST EXCEPT TO CHANGE MENTION OF "80 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW" IN HELENA VALLEY FOR TONIGHT AND TUES MORNING TO 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW FLURRIES TO ACCOUNT FOR VERY LIGHT SNOW GRAINS THAT MAY BE CONDENSED OUT OF THE LOW CLOUD DECK AND FOG THERE. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA TONIGHT AND TUESDAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE THE HELENA VALLEY, INCLUDING THE KHLN TERMINAL, WHERE FREEZING FOG WITH MAINLY MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY REDEVELOP AFTER 06Z THEN DISSIPATE AROUND 20-21Z.
HIGH TEMPS ON TUE WL BE A LITTLE WARMER OVER THE SERN PLAINS AND I-25 CORRIDOR. WITH TEMPS IN THE HIGH VALLEYS BEING SIMILAR TO OR JUST A LITTLE WARMER THAN TODAY.
The closed upper low responsible for the recent spell of wet weather will continue to slowly shift eastward.
Weak high pressure will filter into the region and bring clearing skies to the area overnight.
235 AM CST TUE DEC 1 2015 Westerly mid level flow today in advance of a broad mid level trof axis reflects a loose MSLP gradient and some low level thermal ridging. As said trof axis swings thru a loosely identifiable Pacific front will advance Wed AM.
The deep upper low, which was centered across the Siouxland region late Monday Night shift slowly east into the Upper Midwest region.
WITH THE ENTIRE REGION NOW WITHIN WARM SECTOR OF A SURFACE CYCLONE LOCATED ACROSS NW IOWA/SW MINNESOTA. THIS ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING WELL AHEAD OF THE CYCLONES COLD FRONT -- WHICH IS CURRENTLY PUSHING ACROSS EASTERN ARKANSAS AND FORECAST TO ARRIVE IN NW ALABAMA AFTER MIDNIGHT. AN INCREASE IN THE COVERAGE OF CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS ANTICIPATED FOR AT LEAST THE NW HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN MIDNIGHT-6 AM CST AS LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE STRENGTHENS WITH APPROACH OF COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST. WITH THREAT FOR -SHRA INCREASING IN ADVANCE OF COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. BAND OF HEAVIER SHRA ACCOMPANYING THIS SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY IMPACT MSL BTWN 01/07-13Z AND HSV BTWN 09-15Z.
THE SFC AND UPPER LOW HAVE TRACKED INTO NORTHEASTERN NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON TAKING MOST OF THE ACCUMULATING SNOW NORTHEAST WITH THE SYSTEM. A FEW LIGHTER SNOW BANDS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS OUR NORTHERN FORECAST AREA AND THEN ROTATE EAST AND NORTHEAST AROUND THE LOW. SFC TEMPERATURES ARE PRETTY CLOSE TO OR JUST BELOW FREEZING IN MOST AREAS AND THUS MOST OF ANY SNOW THIS AFTERNOON HAS BEEN MELTING ON PAVED SURFACES. THE LOW WILL TRACK FURTHER AWAY INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. HIGHS WILL CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE TO REACH THE FREEZING MARK ALONG AND NORTH OF I-80 WITH MID 30 FOR HIGHS OVER NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
BUT LATEST RADAR LOOP/SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN BECOMING SATURATED OVER FAR WESTERN SD AS DEFORMATION ZONE WRAPS AROUND UPPER LOW. THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT MASSIVE UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SOUTHERN PERIPHERY JET STREAK CONT TO BRING WINTRY WEATHER TO THE REGION. 2-4 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE WESTERN TIER ADV WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE ON THE PINE RIDGE. WHICH WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH AS THE UPPER LOW EXITS THE REGION.
Overall airmass changes little from Monday, though mainly clear skies early become more cloudy through the day as an upper trough rotates around the low and brushes the area late this afternoon and this evening.
335 AM CST TUE DEC 1 2015 LARGE CUTOFF LOW OVER SIOUX FALLS EARLY THIS MORNING WITH RIDGE FROM THE SOUTHEAST CONUS UP THE EAST COAST. RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WITH UPPER LOW OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA. MODELS HAVE EXPANDED THE WRAP AROUND FROM THE UPPER LOW OVER SIOUX FALLS THIS MORNING WITH THE LOW PROGGED TO DEEPEN BETWEEN NOW AND 12Z. SNOW CONTINUES EARLY THIS MORNING OVER MOST OF WESTERN NEBRASKA BUT A HOLE NOW DEVELOPING FROM PINE RIDGE TO VALENTINE.