Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
High pressure will sink south across the region today, with light winds and temperatures in the mid teens expected.
An upper level trof will be over the area thru the day, keeping the weather unsettled. There will also be slight chances for some spotty light precip over some of the lower elevations. At this time, it looks like temps will only be in the lower to mid 30s over the far eastern plains, with lower to mid 40s along the I-25 corridor and in the Upper Arkansas River Valley. As the upper trof exits the area this evening, precip chance should mostly end, although some light snow showers could linger over some of the mtn areas until later tonight.
431 AM MST Tue Feb 6 2018 An upper level trough was moving across the area early this morning which has some mid lvl QG ascent associated with it.
An area of light snow has shifted well southeast of the area early overnight as an 850 trough and surface cold front moves east of the area. Cold high pressure will nudge into the area today and linger through mid week. A short wave trough is progged to slide over the state tonight and in the long wave trough aloft over the northern tier of the country. Latest timing departs this trough east of the area Wednesday morning followed with decreasing clouds.
However, as the western trough deepens and digs across the Rockies, mid- to upper-level flow will back to the southwest, steering the frontal band northeastward with time this morning. The elevated front will eventually stall and pivot before pushing southeast as the upper trough pushes through late this evening, meaning a band of higher totals is expected near that pivot point. CWA-wide snowfall is possible as the trough/cold front pushes through after 00z, providing at least light accumulations south of I-70 in areas that may not previously see much from this system, before the system exits the region.
This disturbance will phase with a northern stream trough dropping southeast across western Nebraska today. A weak cold front will move through overnight, bringing light northwest winds across the area. Arctic high pressure will build east of the Missouri Valley on Wednesday allowing southerly flow to return, at least for our western zones. Temperatures thus will warm above 0C for locations mainly along and west of highway 83, but remain below freezing to the east.
Lowering Cigs/Visbys expected again tonight ahead of a cold front. Difficult short term forecast with a trough moving inland this morning and a cold front moving through late tonight. coastal trough that had been over the Gulf of Mexico yesterday has shifted just inland this morning with easterly flow to its west and southeasterly flow east. Fog should redevelop tonight ahead of an approaching cold front.
At the surface, Arctic high pressure over the area early this morning will slowly exit across Minnesota and Iowa today. The best chance of snow early today will be across our southern counties, farther from the exiting ridge. A trough of low pressure will set up from western SD through Manitoba and Hudson Bay by 00Z Wednesday. This feature will slide east, and stretch from our south central to northeastern counties by 03Z, and to our east by 09Z (taking the last of the snow with it)as high pressure sinks back across western and central SD. While the high sinks to eastern NE/KS late Wednesday morning, the ridge will remain over our area. Expect southerly winds to slowly return late in the day, as the ridge edges east. Low pressure will begin to move off the Rockies Wed night.
An area of low pressure will take shape over the Mississippi Valley tonight, and will bring significant snow and some ice to much of the region starting after midnight tonight.
903 AM EST Tue Feb 6 2018 High pressure will move off the coast today. A cold front will bring widespread showers late tonight into Wednesday night. Unsettled weather is expected again over the weekend as another cold front crosses the area. High pressure ridging into the area from the Mid-Atlantic region will move out to sea this afternoon.
High pressure will dominate the area with warm temperatures across all of our forecast area. The thermal trough along the coast will maintain dry offshore flow for southern Curry County.
Models have struggled with the cold front's more progressive nature, so it is possible that it may push through SAT earlier than expected to bring more northerly winds to those sites later this morning. Regardless, a stronger cold front will bring 10-15 knot northerly winds gusting to 25 knots later this evening, with ceilings slowly improving to MVFR behind it. As an upper level trough approaches, moisture increases on south to southwest lower to mid level flow. The trough axis moves east of our area during the afternoon ending the rains by evening most areas.
A disturbance dropping south from Utah into Arizona will cause locally breezy north winds today along with slightly cooler temperatures.
1050 AM EST Tue Feb 6 2018 High pressure will move off the coast today. A cold front will bring widespread showers late tonight into Wednesday night. Unsettled weather is expected again over the weekend as another cold front crosses the area. High pressure ridging into the area from the Mid-Atlantic region will move out to sea this afternoon.
One system tonight will deposit a quick 1 to 3 inches, with the highest amounts south of Interstate 96.
/issued 341 AM CST Tue Feb 6 2018/ A cold front is currently plunging southward into the CWA with gusty northeast winds behind it. Cold temperatures will be present tonight behind the front along with a slight chance of rain and/or freezing drizzle. High temperatures mostly in the 50s are expected on Wednesday with a broad upper trough passing over the eastern half of the country.
High pressure will remain in control today keeping easterly flow across the area through the day. Strong mid-upper ridge is forecast build across the NW Caribbean and South Florida mid to late week.
Light snow falling early could end up melting on roads and quickly refreezing as temps will be in the 20s anyway. After midnight or so, the precip along and south of Interstate 70 switches to freezing rain as the system loses ice crystals aloft. With snow turning to freezing rain, have issued a Winter Weather Advisory in the southeast for tonight. Wednesday night chilly into the single digits again before the lows climb back to closer to normal by the end of the week.
An inverted trough is expected to develop later today with the axis extending northeastward across the southern MS Valley, northeastward through southern Middle Tennessee. Cold air will exist on the back side of the eastward moving trough. However, freezing temps are not expected until Wednesday night.
This wave could sharpen up an area of slightly higher QPF up to the Highway 20 corridor this afternoon. Given the low QPF but high SLR, it's quite possible that many see a half inch to inch of snow, especially in the Buffalo Ridge areas. Wednesday: High pressure moves through the region, keeping dry conditions and chilly temperatures in place.
Models are coming into good a agreement that upper trough now over the central Rockies will move east and enter western Missouri by late tonight. The second will be over the southern half of the area where there will be stronger low level warm air advection underneath the mid level ascent ahead of the trough. The introduction of the warm air above the cold surface temperatures will likely bring light freezing rain or freezing drizzle tonight with some glazing depending on the droplet size. This trough will move quickly to the east overnight with the precipitation ending by early Wednesday morning.
A warm front will lift northward overnight with an ample supply of moisture.
Highs this afternoon will reach the low/mid 70s inland. with cooler temperatures at the coast where highs will be in the mid/upper 60s. Light ne to easterly winds today with high pressure northeast of the area.
As an upper level trough approaches, moisture increases on south to southwest lower to mid level flow. The trough axis moves east of our area during the afternoon ending the rains by evening most areas.
415 AM MST Tue Feb 6 2018 An upper level trof will be over the area thru the day, keeping the weather unsettled. There will also be slight chances for some spotty light precip over some of the lower elevations. At this time, it looks like temps will only be in the lower to mid 30s over the far eastern plains, with lower to mid 40s along the I-25 corridor and in the Upper Arkansas River Valley. As the upper trof exits the area this evening, precip chance should mostly end, although some light snow showers could linger over some of the mtn areas until later tonight.
A cold front will accompany this mess of a forecast later tonight and thus have made wind shifts across most terminal locations in the window of 07/04z to 07/09z. /issued 419 AM CST Tue Feb 6 2018/ At 0930z, the surface cold front was located from near Jacksonville TX, to Longview TX, to Plain Dealing LA, and east- northeast into Southern Arkansas. While no wintry precip is currently mentioned in the forecast, I cannot completely rule out a brief period of freezing drizzle and/or freezing rain across Southeast Oklahoma and the adjacent terrain of Southwest Arkansas between 09z-12z Wednesday morning.
438 AM MST Tue Feb 6 2018 A broad upper trough covers the CONUS, with a wave over the Rockies region, and a jet streak sliding across SD. An upper ridge will build over the western states Wednesday, and warmer air will push into the area ahead of the next system, with highs ranging from the lower 20s across northwestern SD to near 40 across parts of northeastern WY.
Water vapor loop shows the mid level trough deepening as the main energy moves southeast out of Nevada and into Arizona and Utah. However as the mid level trough moves out across Kansas later today and tonight broad large scale lift will overspread central and eastern Kansas as depicted by the forecast Q-vector convergence, increasing DPVA as the PV anomaly moves toward central and eastern Kansas. In the wake of the Tuesday system, middle part of this week should remain dry with a 1034mb high pressure system (cP airmass) in place under northwest flow regime aloft.
Do not anticipate much improvement at the terminals with IFR to LIFR persisting until perhaps this afternoon as a warm front over the nearshore Gulf waters lifts northward and reaches into Central/Northern LA. Areas of showers with increasing TSTM probs by this afternoon, with prevailing thunder possible KAEX pending eventual WMFNT position and subsequent cold frontal passage after midnight. /issued 523 AM CST Tue Feb 6 2018/ Areas of marine fog continue to form as the remnant warm front pushes northward. An old dissipating frontal boundary/trough currently across the coastal waters expected to lift further northward today. The best chances of showers and thunderstorms on Wednesday with the next cold frontal passage.
Breezy and slightly cooler weather is expected today as a weak cold front passes through the Four Corners.
729 AM EST Tue Feb 6 2018 A cold front will push east through the region today followed by high pressure overnight. Low pressure will move from the Ohio Valley to near southeastern Massachusetts Wednesday before heading out to sea Wednesday night. This low has the potential to bring a heavy snowfall to our region on Wednesday.
419 AM CST Tue Feb 6 2018 At 0930z, the surface cold front was located from near Jacksonville TX, to Longview TX, to Plain Dealing LA, and east- northeast into Southern Arkansas. While no wintry precip is currently mentioned in the forecast, I cannot completely rule out a brief period of freezing drizzle and/or freezing rain across Southeast Oklahoma and the adjacent terrain of Southwest Arkansas between 09z-12z Wednesday morning.
Aloft a low over far northwest Quebec anchors broad cyclonic flow across the nation that contains a couple of short wave troughs rotating through. A ridge meanders across Cuba. High pressure centered over the southeast and Mid-Atlantic states this morning and ridging into the Gulf of Mexico tracks out over the open Atlantic. The troughing north and ridging south maintain generally westerly flow aloft the area. The high pressure and it/s ridge moving away will with a relaxing gradient that allow modest sea breezes to form each afternoon. The shifting of the winds will bring in some warmer air with temperatures above normal. in the 6 degree range for the highs and about a 8 degree range for the lows.
Difficult short term forecast with a trough moving inland this morning and a cold front moving through late tonight. coastal trough that had been over the Gulf of Mexico yesterday has shifted just inland this morning with easterly flow to its west and southeasterly flow east. Fog should redevelop tonight ahead of an approaching cold front.
Otherwise, patchy light freezing rain is possible across the Big Country this evening, including KABI, however for now keeping the TAF forecast dry. Early this morning, the cold front was located near a Brady to Big Spring line. Temperatures will be freezing or a few degrees below by this evening for the possibility of light freezing rain across the Big Country. Right now, looks like the impacts will be minimal, with slick bridges and overpasses possible. Across the remainder of the area a slight chance of rain or freezing rain after midnight.
Low level high pressure will move off the eastern seaboard today with zonal flow prevailing aloft.
Increasingly warm and moist air overriding the cooler Gulf waters will likely lead to some sea fog development later today which could be a widespread marine impact tonight into Wednesday and all mariners should continue to monitor the latest forecast.
Strong high pressure ridging over the eastern Pacific will continue to dominate the weather pattern over the next several days. Overall airmass warms just slightly today but windier conditions could mix down slightly cooler air.
Cold front has pushed through NE OK and will continue southeastward through NW AR and SE OK through the afternoon.
1131 AM MST Wed Nov 15 2017 The persistence that has prevailed over the forecast area the past couple of days has changed as a cold front pushed through the northern plains earlier this evening. As a result, today's highs will be cooler and drier than yesterday leaving us in the 50s across our CWA.
319 PM CST Wed Nov 15 2017 Mid-level ridging from the lee of the Canadian Rockies into the High Plains will gradually dampen while building east into the Great Plains tonight into Thursday. This pattern evolution will yield slightly warmer temperatures on Thursday, in addition to gusty south winds.
219 PM EST Wed Nov 15 2017 High pressure will move off the New England coast today.
No significant changes were made to today's forecast; a broad area of high pressure at the surface will continue to build southeastward into our area.
137 PM MST Wed Nov 15 2017 No problems expected this period with ridging aloft and at the surface resulting in mostly clear skies and light winds.
Mountain obscurations expected with snowfall over the higher terrain. This moisture rides out ahead of the next Pacific cold front that slides over Eastern Oregon late tonight and into the Idaho zones Thursday morning. Winds out ahead of the approaching cold front are already increasing across portions of Malhuer county with several remote stations reporting 15 to 20 mph with gusts in the 25-30 mph range.
/issued 418 AM CST Wed Nov 15 2017/ Temperatures range from the 40s to the lower 50s across the Midsouth early this morning. Mid level cloud cover is increasing across the region ahead of an approaching cold front, currently stretching from the Great Lakes region southwest to central Texas. Slightly cooler tonight behind the cold front, with low temps mainly in the 40s. The influence of the cold front will be short lived, as we head into tomorrow expect skies to clear leading to another mild day with temperatures in the mid 50s north to mid 60s south. Winds will veer during the day as high pressure slides east and a warm front approaches from the southwest.
1140 AM MST Wed Nov 15 2017 09z surface analysis had low pressure over northern MN with main cold front into western OK and secondary trough into northwest SD. Band of ST just behind the trough will affect far northwest SD this morning. Water vapour had upper trough east of the CWA with upper ridge building over the Rockies toward the CWA. Thursday, upper ridge moves into the northern Plains with thermal ridge peaking over the CWA.
104 PM CST Wed Nov 15 2017 A cold front moved across Minnesota overnight, and was in western Wisconsin during the pre dawn hours. Only the far eastern part remained under the lower clouds and some fog. No much change overnight as winds become lighter as high pressure moves overhead.
313 PM CST Wed Nov 15 2017 Temperatures are cooler today in the wake of a weak cold front, which has nearly made it to the Rio Grande this afternoon. Tonight will be a little cooler than the previous several nights, though still above normal, with lows in the 40s to lower 50s for most.
South of this low there is a cold front extending south into northern Minnesota before curving back southwest into South Dakota. A trough extends straight south along the Minnesota/Wisconsin border into Wisconsin. In the vicinity and ahead of this trough axis dense fog has formed, affecting the Arrowhead and portions of the Interstate 35 corridor early this morning.
Main player today is a progressive upper trof over the Upper Midwest, and a cold front currently trailing along the I-35 corridor from Minnesota to Kansas. Expect precip to blossom ahead of the cold front in the next few hrs, with numerous showers spreading eastward to reach the I-65 corridor by midday and the Bluegrass and Lake Cumberland early to mid afternoon. Quiet weather and below normal temps will follow late Wednesday night and Thursday as high pressure builds through the Great Lakes.
234 PM CST Wed Nov 15 2017 (Tonight and Thursday) Fast zonal flow will continue to result in a fast warming trend after the cold frontal passage. By Thursday noon, the clouds should erode from west to east, allowing the high temperatures to climb into the lower and mid 70s.
A cold front over west central Illinois will shift east across our area into early this afternoon with a decrease in clouds from west to east just behind the frontal boundary. With a period of sunshine expected this afternoon, especially along and west of I-55, temperatures will rise a few degrees despite the low level cold air advection. The low level cold advection and cyclonic flow was also bringing a stratocumulus cloud deck southeast out of northern Iowa late this morning with most short term model solutions suggesting those will affect at least the northern half of the forecast area this evening into the overnight hours. Main cold front is still off to the west in central Iowa, and will be moving into the western CWA late this morning.
Weak NW flow persists in the mid levels while an elongated ridge of high pressure rules the lower levels. These clouds will begin to dissipate after sunrise, and cool and quiet conditions can be expected today as high pressure remains in place at the surface. A weak cold front will approach the state by this evening into the overnight hours. While highs today will range from the upper 50s to lower 60s, highs on Thursday will reach the lower 60s in north Georgia and lower 70s in central Georgia.
218 PM CST Wed Nov 15 2017 High pressure moving across the area tonight will keep things clear/mostly clear and quiet overnight. Flow quickly turns southerly tomorrow and we should warm back up close to normal with highs in the low to mid 50s.
In the middle and upper level(700-200 mb), latest satellite imagery overlaid with model streamline analysis as of 300 pm continues to depict a broadly cyclonic across the Eastern half of the CONUS, with generally low amplitude ridging across the Western CONUS. At the surface and in the lower to middle levels, (Surface to 700 mb), latest satellite imagery overlaid with marine and land surface analysis as of 300 pm, show a 1025 mb surface anticyclone positioned from New Hampshire to Central Virginia. Well back to the west and northwest, a cold front is positioned from the UP of Michigan to North Texas, with another arctic front behind it barreling into Iowa.
Issued by National Weather Service ALBUQUERQUE NM 347 PM CST Wed Nov 15 2017 Temperatures have been up to 20 degrees cooler today in the wake of cold front overnight.
At the surface, cold front stretches from northern IA into southeast Nebraska and finally into the TX Panhandle. This activity should be pushing out of southeast KS by sunrise as the cold front continues to plunge south. Zonal upper pattern will quickly set back up over the Rockies/Plains for Thu which will allow lee troughing to deepen. A strong cold front is expected to move through Fri night with the front expected to mostly move through dry with the better precip chances staying east of the area. Will start a slow warmup by Sun as lee troughing sets up some downslope. The ridge will retreat east of the area by Thursday morning, allowing a return south wind to increase across central Kansas.
/issued 438 AM CST Wed Nov 15 2017/ SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday): Mid-level high pressure will remain over Baja California with northwest flow over South Texas, keeping mostly warm and dry conditions across the area.
An upper trough that is currently over western Canada extends southwest over the eastern Pacific. This trough will slowly shift east today through tonight. At the same time, a cold front west of the Cascade crest will slowly shift east, exiting eastern Oregon by early Thursday morning.
103 PM EST Wed Nov 15 2017 A weak cold front will approach the forecast area from the west tonight.
235 PM EST Wed Nov 15 2017 A cold front will pass through the area late tonight and early Thursday bringing showers, followed by cold air.
Surface pressure gradient remains tight into Thursday morning then high pressure builds in from the west for the afternoon easing the wind field.
405 PM EST Wed Nov 15 2017 High pressure departs to the northeast by tonight.
1241 PM EST Wed Nov 15 2017 Showers this evening, with cold front crossing tonight. High pressure crosses Thursday night.
This drier air is also a bit cooler, leading to a sw to ne gradient of temps across the forecast area today.
The cold front was well behind the front and at 10 am was getting close to far NW AR. The main rain chances will be with the lift, while much lower chances with the cold front. Winds will shift to the west then northwest to north with the cold front through the afternoon and this evening.
347 PM CST Wed Nov 15 2017 A weak cold front has pushed southward across the area today, with breezy north winds developing in its wake. The front will then lift back north early Thursday as a warm front, spreading clouds and moisture back up across the area.
318 PM CST Wed Nov 15 2017 Upper air and satellite data showing northwesterly flow building into the area, set up between a departing trough axis to the east and broad ridging over the Rockies. At the surface, high pressure extends from the southern High Plains northward into central Canada, resulting in northwesterly winds across the area. Models are in good agreement showing the upper level flow turning more zonal with time, as that broad ridging is pushed east onto the Plains by a system moving into the Pac NW. Models showing the pressure gradient tightening up across the region, set up between the departing ridge axis and low pressure deepening over the High Plains. Temperatures look to be a few degrees warmer than today, with forecast highs in the mid 50s(east) to lower 60s(southwest).
Weak cold front will sweep across the forecast area tonight. This will help skies clear fairly quickly after sunrise and plentiful sunshine through the afternoon hours will allow temperatures to warm into the 50s and even the lower 60s in southern portions of the Tennessee Valley.