Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1122 AM CST Sat Nov 27 2021 Water vapor satellite early this morning showed a short wave trough moving southeast across northwest Minnesota. An area of low pressure associated with this wave was over the far southeast corner of South Dakota. The short wave trough looks to only be able to produce some weak pv advection in the 500-300 mb layer today and it is tough to find a coherent frontogenesis signal.
1025 AM MST Sat Nov 27 2021 GOES-16 water vapor imagery reveals a mid-level low over northern Mexico, fast west-northwest flow over the Pacific Northwest, and a broad ridge off the Southern California coastline as of early this morning. As this occurs, the Southern California ridge will also expand and lead to rising heights across the Great Basin and Four Corners. Modest mid and high level moisture riding over the crest of this building ridge will lead to more bouts of cirrus and cirrostratus, especially over the northern half of the forecast area.
248 PM EST Sat Nov 27 2021 High pressure will move off the coast and temperatures will be more seasonable on Sunday.
to the lower 50s across the S/SW KILX CWA. Forecast soundings show that the low and mid levels in the column may not saturate. A trailing cold front will turn winds northwesterly this evening and overnight. High pressure will be in place across the Great Plains Sunday with a moderate NW gradient in place across Illinois much of the day, but the gradient will begin to relax late in the day as the ridge axis shifts east across the mid Mississippi Valley.
1126 AM CST Sat Nov 27 2021 (Today and tonight) A cloudy, cool and wet day is expected across West Central Texas today, as a compact upper low, currently over southwest Texas tracks east across the area. Lows tonight will mainly be in the lower 40s, with decreasing clouds expected late tonight into Sunday morning.
21z/3pm surface analysis shows a 1008mb low over southern Lake Michigan with a trailing cold front extending southwestward into northern Missouri. Plenty of sunshine will be observed, which will help boost highs into the lower to middle 40s.
The low pressure system that brought today's precipitation will exit the region to the east into this evening. This would enhance snow accumulations, however, forecast soundings indicate enough dry air aloft at the onset to have the precipitation start out as freezing drizzle or a mix of freezing drizzle and snow. Skies across central and east-central WI will become sunny on Sunday as high pressure begins to lift into the region. The highest gusts of 25 to 30 mph are expected late Sunday morning when peak mixing will occur.
Much of this pattern is being influenced by a large upper level low centered over eastern Canada/CONUS. A burst of cooler air is brought into the region by a mid-level wave tonight into tomorrow which suppresses highs to around 50F Sunday. To the west of this upper level trough and NW steering current, SSW surface flow is pushing warm air northward along the front range of the Rockies.
Drier air is present in the low levels, making it difficult for rainfall to occur at this moment. As the evening continues, the low levels should begin to saturate more, giving way to low stratus clouds and light to moderate precipitation in the overnight to early morning hours. The highest chance of rain being along and S of I-20. Under quasi-zonal flow aloft, a mid/upper level low pressure system over West Central Texas will race east into and through the Lower Mississippi River Valley. As the disturbance and cold front exits the CWA, high pressure at the surface will quickly build back into the region through Sunday afternoon. Again, with increasing clouds and rain chances tonight into early Sunday morning, lows will be a good bit warmer as they fall into the low and middle 40s.
(Tonight through Sunday) Wraparound showers are continuing to develop and move southward around the back side of the upper low as it moves off to the east. (00Z TAFS) MVFR ceilings cleared out briefly this afternoon for most areas, but expect a return of MVFR ceilings overnight for most areas as a weak cold front moves through.
between a deep upper level ridge over the western CONUS and a deep upper level trough over the eastern CONUS. followed by southerly return flow (and warmer temps) on Sunday. The upper ridge will remain over the Western CONUS as a large area of high pressure moves over the West Coast mid week.
The clouds will help keep temperatures warmer tonight with lows expected to range from the mid 30s to mid 40s. Clouds will begin to increase later tonight ahead of a dry cold front.
With weak ridging over the southeastern states, winds across the area will remain slight generally out of the north.
Warm advection is currently ongoing in the low- to mid- levels, but there's high uncertainty if it'll warm above freezing in the forecast area as we remain a little bit further into the existing cold air. A second trough will move eastward with the surface reflection guiding it into NE Ohio around dawn. The track of the low will slowly draw the light snow shield northward overnight. Locations close to and north of I-80 will see the highest accumulations. As the upper low drifts eastward near the PA/NY border Sunday evening, its trough axis will rotate through the region and pull a surface cold front through.
Visible satellite is showing mostly clear skies across interior Northern California this afternoon under high pressure. Ensemble guidance is in extremely good agreement that high pressure will remain over California through the upcoming week. Daytime temperatures will range from the mid 60s to low 70s across the Valley and 50s to 60s in the mountains and foothills, which is around 5 to 20 degrees warmer than the daily normal for this time of year.
Clouds will begin to increase later tonight ahead of a dry cold front.
The flow aloft will remain northwesterly and drier on Sunday as a ridge of high pressure builds in from the west. At the surface a developing lee trough will also help enhance the downslope the warming in and near the foothills. On Tue, a weak upper level trough will move across, however, cross-sections show little moisture with this feature. Winds will also increase during this period over the higher terrain. A lee trough is expected to develop on Sunday with light winds.
Higher cloud groups have trended towards few and scattered this afternoon, confirming the ridging and subsidence that previous deterministic model runs were showing. Days 8-10 are less certain with a dipole of troughing and ridging at similar uncertainty. Temperatures in the near future will approach the higher percentile for seasonal climatology and exceed normal daily and monthly averages, especially for portions of southern Mendocino and Lake counties. A few valley sites will probably still fall into the lower to mid 30s. Despite a few light showers this morning, potential for precipitation is nil this weekend as the ridge aloft amplifies. Warmer inland locations, such as Ukiah and southern Lake County, will reach the lower to mid 70s today and Sunday.
There is good model agreement in some upper energy tracking out of the Rockies and across the Central Plains on Tue morning, allowing another weak cold front to move through. Confidence remains very high in above normal temps remaining in place through Tue with some records in jeopardy across central KS on Mon with much of the area in the low 70s. Normal highs for this time of year are in the low 50s.
Tale of two halves today with very light rain/freezing rain/sleet this morning resulting in some slick travel and accidents mostly along/n of Hwy 30. Winds will then begin to diminish further into the afternoon with the high approaching.
554 PM CST Sat Nov 27 2021 (Through Tonight) The cold front will move into portions of northeast Oklahoma in the next hour and push southward through the evening and into early tomorrow morning. Rain associated with the upper low moving eastward across Texas should remain just south of the Red River, but it will be close. Expect cloudiness to decrease from northwest to southeast as the low moves to the Texas/Louisiana border by daybreak Sunday.
837 PM EST Sat Nov 27 2021 High pressure will move off the coast tonight resulting in more seasonable temperatures on Sunday.
A stacked mid/upper level low over the eastern Great Lakes will push a trough and weak, dry cold front through the region during the day on Sunday.
649 PM EST Sat Nov 27 2021 High pressure will move off the coast and temperatures will be more seasonable on Sunday.
A second trough will move eastward with the surface reflection guiding it into NE Ohio around dawn. The track of the low will slowly draw the light snow shield northward overnight. Locations close to and north of I-80 will see the highest accumulations. As the upper low drifts eastward near the PA/NY border Sunday evening, its trough axis will rotate through the region and pull a surface cold front through.
536 PM CST Sat Nov 27 2021 (This evening through Sunday) Early this afternoon, an upper level low was located across the Trans-Pecos region/Permian Basin. This low is forecast to track across Weest Central Texas this evening. A weak cold front will move through the area overnight, resulting in a wind shift to the north. Expect overnight low temperatures in the low to mid 40s. Highs on Sunday will be near seasonal normals, in the low to mid 60s. (00Z TAFS) MVFR ceilings cleared out briefly this afternoon for most areas, but expect a return of MVFR ceilings overnight for most areas as a weak cold front moves through.
Rain chances are expected to end west to east overnight as a weak cold front is sent southward through the area, before the upper trough exits finally to the east around daybreak tomorrow morning. Lows will cool into the 40s tonight, while areas of patchy fog may develop ahead of the cold front with light winds and high moisture in place. This will leave a pleasant Sunday ahead, with sunshine returning and highs reaching the low to mid 60s.
Dry and benign conditions continue to preside over the region, as high pressure gradually builds in over the region. A dry cold front passage this moved through South Florida this morning. Dry and mostly sunny skies with high temps a few degrees cooler than yesterday. Overnight lows tonight from upper 40s possible western Lake region, the low 50s in the Interior with upper 50s to low 60s for the east coast. The benign weather pattern will continue into Sunday with high pressure dominating through the rest of the weekend. Another cold front will be working down the peninsula and move into the region towards the end of the short term.
/Issued 256 PM EST Sat Nov 27 2021/ Broad high pressure is in place from the western Gulf Coast to the Great Lakes region, including the Southeastern CONUS. This cold front will move quickly and will push through the area on Sunday and Sunday night. As a result, an increase in mid to upper level clouds will be the main sensible impact ahead of this cold front. If mid-level energy ahead of this low spreads further north, some light sprinkles could be possible in the far southern portion of the forecast area on Sunday, but PoPs remain limited to 10 percent or less at this time.
It extends all the way from 30N, 160W, just north of Hawaii, and has developed on the southern periphery of a longwave trough centered over Alaska, extending southward through the Gulf of Alaska, where analogously cold arctic air is present.
Surface analysis today shows a broad area of high pressure across much of the southeast US is wedged between a more potent storm systems over the Great Lakes Region and an area of low pressure in the western Gulf. A stacked mid/upper level low over the eastern Great Lakes will push a trough and weak, dry cold front through the region during the day on Sunday.
Looked at soundings tonight and looked a bit too moist to worry too much about freezing drizzle and thinking is that the lift will be strong enough to switch pcpn over to snow only.
710 PM EST Sat Nov 27 2021 High pressure persists over the Florida peninsula with mostly clear skies and cool dry air across the region. The area of high pressure will hold through much of Sunday. A weak cold front will approach north Florida late in the day tomorrow with increasing cloudiness over the nature coast.
/issued 121 PM CST Sat Nov 27 2021/ A dynamic upper low is acting pretty much as expected. Located over the upper Trans-Pecos at noon today and still exhibiting a closed nature, the low is poised to hold that shape until it moves over west-central Texas early this evening when it is progged to begin opening up. As the low is progressing eastward we are beginning to see a reorientation of the deformation axis with the western end weakening and a consolidation of rain from the Rolling Plains into the Big Country. The results of this consolidation will result in rainfall across the southeastern quadrant of the forecast area this afternoon and likely into the early evening when mid/upper lift in the northeastern quadrant of the opening upper low finally wanes.
Clear skies across central IL despite a cold front pushing southeastward across the area, and any high cloud cover the remainder of the night should be minimal. 21z/3pm surface analysis shows a 1008mb low over southern Lake Michigan with a trailing cold front extending southwestward into northern Missouri. Plenty of sunshine will be observed, which will help boost highs into the lower to middle 40s.
(This afternoon through Sunday night) An upper low was located over KINK and is being sheared apart and moisture-starved by a one-two punch of a strong subtropical jet and substantial dry slotting. A cold front will then move across west Texas and southeastern New Mexico during the early morning hours Sunday, with winds becoming northerly as modest surface ridging builds south. Lows Sunday morning will range from near 30 over northern Lea County NM to the lower 40s along the Rio Grande. Winds will continue veering to a southerly direction Sunday night as surface lee troughing becomes established.
North to northwest breezes will diminish this evening as high pressure builds in from the northwest. Rising heights at 500 mb will temper the lows tonight even though waa will be weak until sfc winds shift to the south ahead of a clipper system on Sunday. Upper pattern remains dominated by a weak ridge trough pattern across the CONUS with northwest flow overhead.
635 PM EST Sat Nov 27 2021 A fast moving clipper system will push southeast across the Great Lakes and mid Ohio Valley tonight, ushering in cooler temperatures for Sunday. High pressure will return to the area for Sunday night.
Cold front progged to move through the area tomorrow also remains on tracks. /Issued 256 PM EST Sat Nov 27 2021/ Broad high pressure is in place from the western Gulf Coast to the Great Lakes region, including the Southeastern CONUS. This cold front will move quickly and will push through the area on Sunday and Sunday night. As a result, an increase in mid to upper level clouds will be the main sensible impact ahead of this cold front. If mid-level energy ahead of this low spreads further north, some light sprinkles could be possible in the far southern portion of the forecast area on Sunday, but PoPs remain limited to 10 percent or less at this time.
The other concern will be a slight chance of freezing rain mainly over the NE zones Sunday morning. It won't last long Sunday as warmer air will quickly move in with west winds.
There is good model agreement in some upper energy tracking out of the Rockies and across the Central Plains on Tue morning, allowing another weak cold front to move through. Confidence remains very high in above normal temps remaining in place through Tue with some records in jeopardy across central KS on Mon with much of the area in the low 70s. Normal highs for this time of year are in the low 50s. A cold front will push southward out of far southeastern Kansas by mid afternoon.
(The rest of tonight) A upper low was moving east across north TX this evening. At the surface, a cold front was progressing south across the region, lying roughly along the I-44 corridor. There are still some light radar echoes along the Red River near the mid level deformation zone extending to the east-northeast from the upper low center, so some low PoPs were extended into the evening there.
The cold front is expected to enter our region before sunrise tomorrow morning, bringing with it a sharp shift of sfc winds from southwest to northwest. This will keep breezy southwest winds over southern Indiana and central Kentucky before a cold front pushes southeast into the CWA during the pre- dawn hours. 5- 10 mph winds with 15-18 mph gusts will advect cooler temperatures into the CWA during the day tomorrow. Tonight, low temperatures are expected to drop into the low 30s in most places, but a few rural spots, mainly in southern Indiana, could see the upper 20s as Louisville remains a warm 35.
305 AM EST Sun Nov 28 2021 High pressure will settle to our south this morning, as a dry cold front approaches from the northwest. High pressure will then build into the area from the west through mid week. But our N sections should see a second uptick in clouds very late tonight, associated with passage of a potent polar stream low/trough now diving from W Ont toward Lk Superior.
This low heads southeast into New England tonight.
(Today) Cold front has pushed into southeast Oklahoma/northwest Arkansas this morning, currently located near a MLC/Sallisaw/XNA line. Cooler conditions anticipated behind the front today with temperatures near normal for this time of year under mostly sunny skies/light north winds.
High pressure will hold across the western U. It will be breezy at times at ridgetop and where typical stronger south gap winds are favored in this pattern. The ridge briefly flattens as a storm clips the Divide tomorrow afternoon and evening.
252 AM CST Sun Nov 28 2021 Upper ridge continues to anchor across the western CONUS while mid level perturbations traverse the northern periphery into the northern and central plains today. Given the ample sunshine and lack of strong CAA, opted to bump highs a few degrees but overall much cooler than yesterday in the low to mid 50s. Decent downsloping flow advects much warmer temps from 16C-18C likely at 925 mb into the region. Forecast soundings are consistent mixing this warmer air to the sfc, coupled with sunny skies should result in another warm, record setting afternoon. Past models and NBM data have underestimated the abnormally warm pattern so have trended warmer than previous forecast closer to the 90th percentile of lower 70s.
155 AM CST Sun Nov 28 2021 Dry and warm weather conditions will continue across the region this period with today being the cooler day.
The passage of a cold front brought gusty northerly winds to the region today. Mild temperatures will return for Sunday, although they will be a few degrees cooler than today. A ridge of high pressure at the surface will maintain dry conditions for the rest of the weekend. Warm air advection continues Monday, with a weak frontal passage allowing high temperatures to mix into the lower to mid 60s.
1045 PM EST Sat Nov 27 2021 Yesterday's cold front has cleared the Florida peninsula, and is currently located in the Florida Straights. High pressure over the MS Valley has continued to build towards Florida, keeping it mostly clear and dry locally this evening. Overnight low temperatures will be in the low to mid 40s generally north of I-4, with everywhere else having upper 40s to low 50s. Yesterday's cold front has cleared the Florida peninsula and is currently in the Florida Straights.
BW Chattanooga Airport, TN 37 59 30 51 34 / 0 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 35 56 27 46 33 / 0 0 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 33 55 27 46 32 / 0 0 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 29 53 23 41 28 / 0 0 0 0 0.
North to northwest breezes will diminish this evening as high pressure builds in from the northwest. Rising heights at 500 mb will temper the lows tonight even though waa will be weak until sfc winds shift to the south ahead of a clipper system on Sunday. Upper pattern remains dominated by a weak ridge trough pattern across the CONUS with northwest flow overhead. A little uncertain about how much the tradeoff will impact highs, but leaning on the side of the higher end of NBM given that we have overachieved with these last few warm events featuring favorable mixing conditions.
It appears that any mixed precipitation will be very light as there is a dry slot accompanying the warmer air which will work against the expansion of precipitation south of PIT. The upper low will drift eastward near the PA/NY border this evening, and the main trough axis will rotate through the region late tonight.
A trough set up to our west will move into the western Dakotas this afternoon as a warm front. As a result, highs will again top out in the 40s across most of our area, with 50s creeping in to our southwestern counties as the warmer air begins to move in. While the most likely precipitation type will be light rain showers or sprinkles, any lingering precipitation over our far northeastern counties could mix with light snow or freeze on surfaces as temperatures fall below freezing. Additional cloud cover, and any change in the timing of the cold front could reasonably make a 5 or so degree difference in temperatures.
137 AM MST Sun Nov 28 2021 Water vapor shows western CONUS ridge rebuilding into the Northern Rockies/Northern Plains. Upper ridge will dominate our weather through Monday, with very mild temps (close to records in some places) and dry conditions.
230 AM CST Sun Nov 28 2021 A cold front will continue to move across the area early this morning, with high pressure building in over the area later today. Highs will be a few degrees cooler than yesterday. South winds will return on the back side of high pressure Monday as another clipper moves across the Great Lakes. It will be a bit warmer mainly west of the MS River, not so much elsewhere given more cloud cover.
A handful of KY Mesonet stations where BL decoupling has occurred have dropped below freezing. With such dry air in the lower to mid levels, the front is marked only by a wind shift this morning. The upper level trof is forecast to drop southeast across the Great Lakes today into tonight. NW flow will increase later this morning behind the cold front, and we'll see decreasing thicknesses and stronger CAA this afternoon into tonight. Once the high clouds pass this morning, we will enjoy more sunshine from late morning through the afternoon. Sfc winds out of the northwest gradually diminish tonight due to high pressure nosing in from the west. Expect a cold night with Monday morning lows in the low to mid 20s.
The upper low will drift eastward near the PA/NY border this evening, and the main trough axis will rotate through the region late tonight.
between a deep upper level ridge over the western CONUS and a deep upper level trough over the eastern CONUS. followed by southerly return flow (and warmer temps) on Sunday. High temperatures will be in the 60s and 70s to start the period, cooling off to the 50s by the end of the period behind a weak cold front.
A weak cold front will push across the state overnight into Sunday, switching winds to the north at around 10 knots or less. ) A deepening trough with robust dynamic forcing at the surface over northern Arkansas coupled with strong veering winds at 850mb that is inducing WAA across the northern third of the state. The warmer drier airmass originates over western Texas ushering in much drier and warmer air into southern Missouri and northern Arkansas. A slight chance of showers does exist for southern Arkansas across the highway 278 corridor along a line from Hope to Camden to Warren to Monticello and locations south thereof.
Downslope winds will help temps remain above normal with a range from the low 60s in the west to the low 50s in the eastern part of the forecast area. Thus a cool down is expected as a trough moves into the region, but the question of any precipitation is still open.