Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1009 AM EDT Fri Jun 18 2021 High clouds continue to develop and stream eastward across central FL from convection developing around the broad area of low pressure over the central Gulf, designated as Potential Tropical Cyclone 3. However, measurable rainfall with this activity through the morning is unlikely as drier air in the lower levels will help evaporate the falling rain. (Previous Discussion) Favorable boating conditions today as the Atlantic ridge axis begins to build back across the local waters.
303 AM MDT Fri Jun 18 2021 Currently a weak surface front is making its way across southeast Wyoming and western Nebraska bringing cooler temperatures into the forecast for today with high temperatures in the 70s and lower 80s with lows tonight in the 50s and 60s.
/issued 200 AM CDT Fri Jun 18 2021/ Overall things will remain quiet today into tomorrow morning as we continue to be dominated by upper ridging. Temps will be a degree or two warmer today as thicknesses increase slightly with overnight lows responding in the same manner. Surface lee troughing will keep surface winds mostly out of the south to southeast through much of the day. The summer doldrums will continue into the weekend even as the Four Corner's upper high retreats southwestward.
Heat continues through the weekend, but 3-4 degrees cooler than today for highs.
/Issued 251 AM CDT Fri Jun 18 2021/ It will be another hot day today across the region as upper level ridging continues to dominate. Ridge will begin to break down and slide back westward some beginning today and into the weekend thanks in part to a landfalling tropical system along the Gulf Coast. Saturday should see temperatures come down a couple more degrees as the ridge slides further west.
The valleys in western Montanan will top out in the mid to upper 80s, with low to mid 90s expected in the lower valleys of north-central Idaho. Precipitation will finally begin to enter northwest Montana Saturday evening as the Canadian cold front slides south. As the cold front moves further south overnight, rainfall will spread further west and south through the rest of western Montana.
/issued 210 AM CDT Fri Jun 18 2021/ Subtropical ridge across the 4-Corners area today is broad enough to keep the mid-level wlys pushed well to the n and as such the MSLP pattern is fairly diffuse across W TX/SE NM. As the aforementioned ridge builds swwd Sun the mid-level wlys will drop farther s opening the door for the possibility of a summer front Mon. A warm-up will follow Wed-Fri with possibility of remnant mid-level theta-e ridge trapped within or on the periphery of the upper anticyclone favoring precip across the w.
344 AM MDT Fri Jun 18 2021 Upper ridging continues across the SW CONUS, with WNW flow aloft over the northern High Plains.
713 AM EDT Fri Jun 18 2021 Shower and thunderstorm chance returns this afternoon through Saturday with crossing low pressure. Clear skies and dry weather with high pressure continue early this morning. SPC has outlooked far western portions of the area with an Enhanced Risk, while a Slight Risk covers the remainder outside of the ridges. Showers and thunderstorms are likely again Saturday as the slow- moving sfc cold front crossed the Upper Ohio Valley region.
505 AM EDT Fri Jun 18 2021 WV imagery and RAP analysis indicated a mid/upper level trough through northwest Ontario with nearly zonal flow through the northern CONUS. An upstream shrtwv diving southeast from far northwest Ontario was dragging a cold front toward Lake Superior. Otherwise, a trough extended through central Upper Michigan into central WI with drier air filtering into western upper Michigan. Today, with plenty of sunshine and deep mixing to around 8k feet, temps will climb into the low to mid 80s with dewpoints falling to around 40. As winds diminish, temps will drop into the upper 40s inland and the lower 50s near the Great Lakes. Surface ridging will build into the Upper Great Lakes Saturday. Weak northwest winds will make it a "cooler by the lake" day near Lake Superior.
Attention will turn to fire weather concerns on Saturday as an approaching cold front leads to a ramp up in winds late in the day in the presence of low relative humidity, dry fuels, and potential area thunderstorms with the cold front.
A strong ridge of high pressure will result in excessive heat through this weekend.
1017 AM EDT Fri Jun 18 2021 High pressure will move offshore today.
1133 AM MDT Fri Jun 18 2021 Upper ridging continues across the SW CONUS, with WNW flow aloft over the northern High Plains.
The period starts out with the region in northwesterly flow aloft as upper level high pressure sits over most of the southern half of the CONUS while an upper level Canadian low churns over Ontario. This low will gradually dig down to the southeast through the period. Overall, mostly dry conditions are expected before thunderstorm and shower chances enter towards the tail end of the period ahead of a warm frontal boundary. As surface pressure pushes off to the east during the day Saturday, low pressure over Wyoming will work towards the area. An associated warm frontal boundary (as previously mentioned) during the afternoon may lead to some precipitation chances ahead of the front.
On Saturday the flow aloft will become more northwest as an upper ridge amplifies off the coast and an upper trough prevails over the northern Rocky Mountains.
226 PM CDT Fri Jun 18 2021 Hot and humid conditions are occuring this afternoon as a mid and upper level ridge of high pressure has built into the region. As of 2 PM, temperatures over most locations were in the lower to middle 90s with heat indices in the 98 to 106 degree range. Dew points are expected to decrease a few degrees which should allow slightly cooler lows than what we saw this morning. Nevertheless, we still expect a corridor of middle 70s for lows up along the Highway 54 corridor. Hot temperatures and dry conditions are again on tap for Saturday as the upper level ridge holds strong.
214 PM CDT Fri Jun 18 2021 Toasty afternoon across Middle Tennessee with latest observations showing temperatures in the low 80s on the Plateau and mid 80s to low 90s elsewhere. More of the same is expected tomorrow as an upper ridge remains in place over the Tennessee Valley, with highs once again reaching the mid 80s to low 90s.
The location of development Saturday afternoon will depend on where any possible remnant boundaries are located, as the main cold front will stay north of the forecast area.
Unlike the past few days, dewpoints today have been notably cooler, with temperatures in the 40s to 50s, making the summer heat feel rather bearable. Thus, given that radiational heating will be slightly dampened, have afternoon highs a touch cooler, with temperatures in the mid to upper 80s.
Cloud cover is then expected to increase tomorrow morning as a cold front approaches the area ahead of a deepening upper level trough.
The upper level ridge will continue to keep South Central Texas dry tonight through Saturday night.
155 PM MDT Fri Jun 18 2021 An upper trough over British Columbia will drop through the area Saturday. This will push a cold front through Saturday night. A cold front will then push through Saturday night and turn winds north to northeast during the evening, with gusts continuing.
124 PM PDT Fri Jun 18 2021 Widespread triple digit heat expected for the lower elevations through this weekend. Mid-level moisture moving around the ridge will bring isolated showers and thunderstorms through this evening, over the Sierra Nevada, as well as the Kern County mountain and desert areas.
1008 AM CDT Fri Jun 18 2021 Subsidence continues over the Ark-La-Tex in the northwest quadrant out ahead of Potential Tropical Cyclone Three.
(This evening through Saturday) No significant changes to the hot temperatures are expected on Saturday as the Southern Plains will remain on the eastern periphery of a ~592 dam mid-level ridge centered across the Four Corners. Forecast highs range from the low 90s across southeast Oklahoma to the low 100s deg F across northwest Oklahoma. These values fall in the high risk category for heat stress, so individuals are encouraged to take heat safety precautions.
100 PM EDT Fri Jun 18 2021 Shower and thunderstorm chance returns this afternoon through Saturday with crossing low pressure areas. Showers and thunderstorms are likely again Saturday as the slow- moving sfc cold front crossed the Upper Ohio Valley region.
1251 PM CDT Fri Jun 18 2021 For the 18/18Z TAF update, cloud cover with MVFR cigs and the peripheral wind field associated with Potential Tropical Cyclone Three will gradually enter the eastern half of our airspace. /issued 1008 AM CDT Fri Jun 18 2021/ Subsidence continues over the Ark-La-Tex in the northwest quadrant out ahead of Potential Tropical Cyclone Three.
Our transition to the tropical air mass out ahead of the potential tropical cyclone in the Gulf has officially begun. PoPs will trim back slightly as we approach midnight, ramping back up as tropical rain bands surge northward as the low pressure center approaches the Louisiana coastline. In terms of rainfall amounts, 3 to 5 inches still appear valid roughly along and south of the I-20 corridor, but we'll watch for any shifts in the forecast track of the potential tropical cyclone.
354 PM CDT Fri Jun 18 2021 The cool front has brought much needed relief to the heat across much of south central Nebraska this afternoon with temperatures in many cases 10 to 15 degrees cooler than at this time yesterday and with cooling cloud cover. We will need to watch out for possible strong thunderstorms across our eastern zones (Highway 81 corridor) late this evening as the low level jet increases.
From synopsis,a ridge of high pressure will build over the western North Atlantic for the next several days.
A ridge continues to build over the region from the south, with warmer temperatures today.
So, blended in some cooler MOS numbers with NBM. Right now it appears the highest chances for severe weather Saturday evening/night would be over parts of western and southern SD.
315 PM CDT Fri Jun 18 2021 Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible across central and southeast Illinois tonight, as a cold front starts to move into the area.
1240 PM CDT Fri Jun 18 2021 Dry, warm, and VFR continuing with upper level high pressure ridge centered north and west but dominating weather over the Texas South Plains as well. /issued 200 AM CDT Fri Jun 18 2021/ Overall things will remain quiet today into tomorrow morning as we continue to be dominated by upper ridging. Temps will be a degree or two warmer today as thicknesses increase slightly with overnight lows responding in the same manner. Surface lee troughing will keep surface winds mostly out of the south to southeast through much of the day. The summer doldrums will continue into the weekend even as the Four Corner's upper high retreats southwestward.
Latest satellite imagery shows high cirrus associated with Potential Tropical Cyclone Three (PTC3) streaming into northeast MS this afternoon. The official NHC forecast still maintains the cyclone track south and east of our area.
245 PM MDT Fri Jun 18 2021 Stationary frontal boundary that was draped across the region has since pushed further east into Colorado, with high pressure building off the Pacific Northwest. As we transition into the weekend, an additional cold frontal boundary is expected to start digging southward across the CWA before becoming stationary once again across the region.
Heat impacts are likely across many of the lower valleys of western Nevada.
323 PM CDT Fri Jun 18 2021 The upper high remains in control of the southwestern states with very warm mid and upper level air sprawled east across the central and southern Plains. Some high cloud will spill over the ridge overnight though winds looks a bit weaker and expect lows slightly slower as a result.
As we continue to lie to the west of Potential Tropical Cyclone Three, the resultant east-northeasterly surface winds have allowed for some drier air to filter into SE TX today, bringing dew points down into the 60s. Speaking of Potential Tropical Cyclone Three.
405 PM EDT Fri Jun 18 2021 A warm front pushing across the area will result in increased humidity into Saturday. An upper level trough will swing in from the northwest, pushing a cold front down into the state. This forcing appears to be at the base of the main upper trough. Have held onto the likely PoPs over most/all of the CWA for the afternoon and early evening as a potent trough moves in from the west during peak heating.
Highs should have no problem reaching the mid to upper 80s on the Plateau and the low to mid 90s with just a few clouds expected.
SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday Night): Potential Tropical Cyclone Three located over the north-central Gulf of Mexico continues to head north.
While the low level moisture is getting heat indices up to the lower to middle 100s stiff 10 to 20 mph wind is helping to take some of the edge off the conditions. Despite the low level jet being pretty veered there will still be decent convergence and isentropic ascent generally along the MO/IA border. Lingering showers will be possible into daybreak on Saturday as the low level jet winds down, but convective coverage will gradually decrease.
Mid to high level cloud cover continues to build eastward across the area from disturbance over the Gulf, designated as Potential Tropical Cyclone 3. Mostly cloudy skies should continue into tonight, with overnight lows in the low to mid 70s.
247 PM CDT Fri Jun 18 2021 Fairly non-contentious weather continues today and tonight with upper ridge axis just north but very much in control over the Texas South Plains area with it's signature deep sinking motion. Daytime highs appear another degree or so warmer Saturday than recent days, with a mild night tonight again as well.
Cloud cover will increase ahead of a fast moving cold front that will traverse the region through the evening hours. The H5 flow aloft highlights an upper low situated over the Hudson Bay region.
Any storms that do make it into the CWA will diminish quickly after sunset with overnight hours being mainly quiet dropping temperatures into the 60s being slightly cooler due to the front.
High pressure continues to dominate across East TN and southwest VA/NC this morning with mostly clear skies prevailing amidst light wly/nwly flow. Speaking of heating, starting to see some fair wx cu along the ridgelines of the Plateau/Mountains as expected. TD Chattanooga Airport, TN 93 69 86 70 83 / 0 0 20 50 60 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 91 67 89 70 85 / 0 0 20 30 50 Oak Ridge, TN 90 68 88 69 85 / 0 0 10 30 50 Tri Cities Airport, TN 88 60 88 67 86 / 0 0 10 20 40.
/Tonight through Saturday Night/ Potential Tropical Cyclone Three will make its closest approach and influence to the Ark-La-Tex weather conditions in the next 36 hours, however, it will do so with its track further to our east. The most predominant inland impacts from Potential Tropical Cyclone Three to our area after landfall will be in the form of increased cloud cover across our eastern zones, with a slight chance for showers (trending lower with the storms eastward movement). The subtle effects from Potential Tropical Cyclone Three wane by Saturday night as its wind field continues eastward. Southwesterly surface flow will promptly return to push dew points over 70 degrees near our southern zones and milder low temperatures in the the low to mid-70s are expected areawide.
With the latest official track and winds from NHC, impacts from potential tropical cyclone 3 will be east of the forecast area. VFR conditions early this morning with mostly clr skies in advance of Potential Tropical Cyclone 3 moving north acrs the cntl Gulf.
High pressure over the Western Atlantic will continue to extend into the Florid Peninsula through Saturday, as a disturbance over the Western Atlantic waters moves northward into the Gulf Coast States. With the dew points running in the lower to mid 70s, the feel like temperatures for late tonight into early Saturday morning will be in the mid to upper 70s over most areas, except lower to mid 80s east coast metro areas. The dew points will remain in the lower to mid 70s over South Florida on Saturday allowing for the heat indices to get up into the lower to mid 100s, except around 100 over the east coast metro areas.
Warm weather continues into Saturday, ahead of a cold front.
The main cold front will drop into our northern zones at the same time with lower chances for isolated showers/storms.
Slightly cooler airmass advects into the forecast area and high temperatures are expected to be cooler.
A cold front will slowly move into the area late Saturday afternoon and bring welcomed relief to the temperatures and low RH values.
Potential Tropical Cyclone Three is centered over the N/central Gulf of Mexico approaching LA/MS and is expected to strengthen to Tropical Storm Claudette prior to making landfall tonight into Sat morning.
High pressure continues to dominate across East TN and southwest VA/NC this morning with mostly clear skies prevailing amidst light wly/nwly flow. Speaking of heating, starting to see some fair wx cu along the ridgelines of the Plateau/Mountains as expected. VFR through the period at all sites during this taf period as high pressure prevails between two disturbances both north and south. CDG Chattanooga Airport, TN 70 87 70 83 72 / 10 30 50 60 40 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 69 88 70 85 71 / 10 10 30 50 40 Oak Ridge, TN 66 88 69 85 70 / 10 10 30 50 40 Tri Cities Airport, TN 63 88 67 86 67 / 10 20 20 40 40.
243 PM CDT Fri Jun 18 2021 The subtropical ridge will remain centered over the southwestern U. Since our region has been on the eastern periphery of this ridge, we have not been subjected to the extreme heat which states in the 4-Corners region have been dealing with. However, this will change heading into this weekend as the upper lvl ridge broadens and mid-level thicknesses increase overhead.
A few locations with more persistent cloud cover may stay in the 80s, but otherwise highs in the lower 90s are on track with at least partial sunshine.
1130 AM MDT Fri Jun 18 2021 Currently a weak surface front is making its way across southeast Wyoming and western Nebraska bringing cooler temperatures into the forecast for today with high temperatures in the 70s and lower 80s with lows tonight in the 50s and 60s.
Thankfully, the heat isn't like states out west have been experiencing for the last few days, but many in Middle TN climbed into the low 90s with plenty of humidity.
The cool front has brought much needed relief to the heat across much of south central Nebraska this afternoon with temperatures in many cases 10 to 15 degrees cooler than at this time yesterday and with cooling cloud cover. We will need to watch out for possible strong thunderstorms across our eastern zones (Highway 81 corridor) late this evening as the low level jet increases.
812 PM EDT Fri Jun 18 2021 A warm front pushing across the area will result in increased humidity into Saturday. An upper level trough will swing in from the northwest, pushing a cold front down into the state. Expecting to see coverage become more widespread later this evening and into tonight as dewpoints increase through the 60s in conjunction with passage of a warm front. Have held onto the likely PoPs over most/all of the CWA for the afternoon and early evening as a potent trough moves in from the west during peak heating.
Widespread triple digit heat expected for the lower elevations through this weekend. Mid-level moisture moving around the ridge will bring isolated showers and thunderstorms through this evening, over the Sierra Nevada, as well as the Kern County mountain and desert areas.
A dryer trend expected on Saturday as the back side of the low will provide some minor subsidence along with 588 upper level ridging over northern LA.
Thus, southeast Michigan looks to be in pretty good shape as mid level dry slot/subsidence is tracking through with instability still on the low side as of 18Z, with continued MLcin/capping. With trapped low level moisture/clouds, temperatures have not even hit 80 degrees yet (most places), and doubtful we will get much past the lower 80s as we run out of daylight hours and warm advection.
POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE THREE WILL IMPACT THE SOUTHEAST Updated for 00Z aviation discussion 00Z TAF discussion: Mostly VFR. Tonight and Saturday: Mid afternoon satellite imagery showed the circulation associated with Potential Tropical Cyclone (PTC Three) in the northern Gulf tracking north toward the southeast Louisiana coast.
The upper high remains in control of the southwestern states with very warm mid and upper level air sprawled east across the central and southern Plains. Some high cloud will spill over the ridge overnight though winds looks a bit weaker and expect lows slightly slower as a result.
Main cold front and switch to north wind passed thru Grand Forks prior to 00z with showers and that is moving southeast into NW MN. Cloud cover will increase ahead of a fast moving cold front that will traverse the region through the evening hours. The H5 flow aloft highlights an upper low situated over the Hudson Bay region.
555 PM MDT Fri Jun 18 2021 Stationary frontal boundary that was draped across the region has since pushed further east into Colorado, with high pressure building off the Pacific Northwest. As we transition into the weekend, an additional cold frontal boundary is expected to start digging southward across the CWA before becoming stationary once again across the region.
The region remains pinned between a sprawling ridge over the Southwest and Central U. While enough low level moisture has been available to spawn a broad field of fair weather cumulus cloudiness across the area, strong subsidence on the eastern flank of the upper ridge has precluded the development of any precipitation today.
Toasty afternoon across Middle Tennessee with latest observations showing temperatures in the low 80s on the Plateau and mid 80s to low 90s elsewhere. More of the same is expected tomorrow as an upper ridge remains in place over the Tennessee Valley, with highs once again reaching the mid 80s to low 90s.
Also, some light rain over the northern Gulf, more closely associated with Potential Tropical Cyclone 3, will continue to move east into the Nature Coast through tonight, providing an occasional sprinkle for some. Southeast winds will begin to pick up in the morning, before veering out of the south to southwest as Potential Tropical Cyclone 3 moves to our northwest. Ridging remains over the waters through the period with winds generally 15 knots or less and seas 2 to 4 feet offshore.
Stationary frontal boundary that was draped across the region has since pushed further east into Colorado, with high pressure building off the Pacific Northwest. As we transition into the weekend, an additional cold frontal boundary is expected to start digging southward across the CWA before becoming stationary once again across the region.
as the upper level ridge presently situated over the central/southern Rockies/High Plains weakens and retreats to the Desert Southwest. Thus, while convective inhibition decreases toward the south (invof Syracuse-Scott City where sfc temps are in the low 100s). With weak flow throughout the column (beneath the ridge aloft). as the ridge aloft retreats toward the Desert Southwest and the mid-latitude westerlies begin strengthening over central portions of the Rockies/High Plains. To start off the extended, high pressure is expected to remain over the Southwest with an upper high over the S California/Baja Peninsula region. An upper level trough will continue southeast across the Central Plains along with a cold front.
617 PM CDT Fri Jun 18 2021 Widespread VFR conditions will prevail through the period as high pressure will dominate through most of it. An area of low pressure will pass to the southeast of the state during the period but only an increase in clouds is expected at primarily KLLQ.
602 PM CDT Fri Jun 18 2021 Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible across central and southeast Illinois tonight, as a cold front starts to move into the area.