Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
For tonight, did update some of the PoPs/Wx for timing and also to show the potential for light rain showers or drizzle over the higher terrain of the Coteau. Temps are falling into the lower 40s and upper 30s for most locations, although readings are still hovering around 50 degrees in MBG thanks to the cloud cover. High pressure will move off to the east today, with southerly winds increasing as low pressure already begins to approach the area.
134 PM EDT WED SEP 14 2016 A weak cold front crosses tonight. High pressure passes to the north Thursday.
135 PM EDT Wed Sep 14 2016 A cold front will bring scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and early evening. Cold front now working into northwest PA and eastern OH and have updated and sped up POPs based on latest radar trends. Max temperatures still in line with most locations from Pittsburgh north already seeing the high for the day due to clouds and showers arriving. High pressure will bring clearing and lower dew points overnight with temperatures near the seasonal average. This portion of the forecast should be dry with high pressure across the region.
Given the proximity of the high and a light surface flow generally from the North then East.
Large area of high pressure and dry air stretches across the northern Great Lakes back into the northern plains. A fair amount of sunshine across the region today, although cooler air aloft and daytime heating did bring about sct-bkn cloud cover for much of the day. Tonight through Thursday: Minimal worries as high pressure develops across the Great Lakes. Synoptic pattern: Progressive pattern continues across the CONUS for the midweek period with fairly deep upper trough on Wednesday replace by ridging on Thursday.
229 PM EDT WED SEP 14 2016 Moisture will remain over the region through much of the week in the easterly flow between high pressure to the north and Tropical Storm Julia just south of the area. Kept the highest pops across the southeast Midlands into the CSRA. Followed the guidance consensus for high temperatures in the low to mid 80s and lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s. The GFS and ECMWF indicate high moisture through much of the medium-range period associated with a long-fetch easterly flow south of pressure ridge off the east coast and some troughing lingering near the southeast coast.
A few showers and isolated storms have popped up this morning across portions of southern IN as well as south central KY in areas where the higher moisture bands are. Tropical Storm Julia to our southeast actually may help briefly to bolster the ridge aloft just over our south, providing some subsiding air.
Easterly low-level flow will continue to be present today between Julia and low-level ridging to the north.
Low/mid level ridging will persist into Thursday, and somewhat drier air will advect into the eastern half of the area.
137 PM MDT WED SEP 14 2016 19z surface analysis had lee trough from central MT into central WY with low developing along trough over north central WY. Water vapour loop had upper low spinning over southern ID with speed max in southeast quadrant across UT into WY. Thursday, upper low spins into eastern ND with deformation zone-like shield of precipitation affecting northern half of the CWA, especially during the day. 1-2KJ/kg MLCAPE develops ahead of cold front across south central SD with a few strong storms possible by afternoon given marginal shear profiles.
524 PM EDT WED SEP 14 2016 Moisture will remain over the region through much of the week in the easterly flow between high pressure to the north and Tropical Storm Julia just south of the area. Kept the highest pops across the southeast Midlands into the CSRA. Followed the guidance consensus for high temperatures in the low to mid 80s and lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s. The GFS and ECMWF indicate high moisture through much of the medium-range period associated with a long-fetch easterly flow south of pressure ridge.
Expect drier, cooler and breezy conditions today as a storm system moves away from the state. Lows will dip down to near freezing for the usual cold spots above 6500 feet elevations.
652 PM EDT WED SEP 14 2016 Moisture will remain over the region through much of the week in the easterly flow between high pressure to the north and Tropical Storm Julia just south of the area. Kept the highest pops across the southeast Midlands into the CSRA. Followed the guidance consensus for high temperatures in the low to mid 80s and lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s. The GFS and ECMWF indicate high moisture through much of the medium-range period associated with a long-fetch easterly flow south of pressure ridge.
An upper level low over the 4 corners will provide lift and diffluence to the western panhandles this afternoon and overnight.
Deterministic NAM/ECMWF/GFS and GFS ensemble mean suggest that the upper low will meander just offshore during the period. especially over the ERN CWA/MSA near the upper low.
The short term period begins for Northeast Montana with an upper ridge in place over the Divide and zonal flow aloft. The boundary between the cooler air-mass to the north and the warmer air-mass to the south will be across the local area.
636 AM EDT MON AUG 29 2016 A weak cold front will finish sinking south across the area this morning with high pressure building over the region between tonight and Tuesday.
Daytime highs will be a little cooler than average due to increasing cloudiness and rain chances. A moderate pressure gradient continues between high pressure to the north and Tropical Depression 09 moving south of Key West and into the SE gulf later tonight into Monday.
358 AM EDT MON AUG 29 2016 A weak cold front will finish sinking south across the area this morning with high pressure building over the region between tonight and Tuesday.
311 AM CDT MON AUG 29 2016 Current surface obs indicating a cold front extending from north central to west central SD very early this morning. This boundary will slide slowly southward through today, becoming situated just north of the Highway 14 corridor by late afternoon, bringing a small threat of thunderstorm development over that area after 21z. It will be another very warm and humid day with highs in the lower 80s east of Interstate 29 to near 90 through the James River Valley and south central SD - this in conjunction with afternoon dew points in the mid 60s to near 70. Overnight lows will be once again be relatively mild , bottoming out in the lower to mid 60s.
Subtle upper level waves embedded in a southerly tropical flow will cross western Kansas today and tonight as they rotate around an upper level ridge axis that will be located over the Mid Mississippi Valley. Subtle upper level disturbances embedded in a tropical air mass will continue Tuesday as the upper level ridge axis shifts westward into western Oklahoma and the upper low, located near the four corners region at 00z Monday, slowly moves east northeast across northern New Mexico. A south to southeasterly wind at less than 10 knots can be expected through Monday morning across western Kansas as a trough of low pressure at the surface remains nearly stationary over eastern Colorado. Some patchy fog can not be completely ruled out around daybreak given the low to mid 60 degree surface dew points and a light south to southeast flow.
453 AM EDT MON AUG 29 2016 A cold front will move across the region today. High pressure returns tonight into Tuesday.
607 AM EDT MON AUG 29 2016 A weak cold front will sag southward on today and Tuesday.
A ridge of high pressure from the mid-Atlantic across the southern plains will continue to weaken and shift northward as a Tropical Depression of the Carolina coast moves west and TD 9 moves into the southeastern Gulf. Highs today will climb into the low 90s with lows tonight ranging from the low to mid 70s inland to upper 70s along the coast.
210 AM EDT MON AUG 29 2016 A weak cold front will sag slowly southeast across the region early today.
High pressure is in place across the central Great Lakes region early this morning and will shift east today with subtle mid-level return flow overspreading the area allowing PWats of 1.
A low pressure disturbance will impact the area on Tuesday, bringing breezy winds, slightly cooler temperatures and a minor possibility of dry thunderstorms over the north Bay. A mean trough pattern will bring continued below seasonal temperatures through the end of the week.
339 AM EDT MON AUG 29 2016 High pressure moving slowly southeast across the Great Lakes will provide generally fair weather across our area today and tonight, though there remains a small chance of showers and thunderstorms over southwestern portions of the area through this evening close to a lingering frontal boundary. Highs today will be in the middle to upper 80s with lows tonight in the lower to middle 60s.
East-southeast flow will deepen to at least 500 mb on Monday ahead of the upper low that is currently over the 4-corners region, and is projected to shear apart over Colorado by Tuesday. Temperatures will trend cooler each day.
306 AM EDT MON AUG 29 2016 High pressure will reaming over the region through Tuesday night.
Easterly low level wind trajectories will continue to advect in relatively drier air and this will help to greatly limit diurnal convective precipitation coverage, with the greatest threat generally south of the Highway 84.
103 AM MDT MON AUG 29 2016 Mid/Upper level trough remains in place near four corners region, with ridge across the southeastern US. Monday: As the upper low shifts slightly better forcing is depicted and a stronger precip signal in our east through the day Monday (particularly late Monday afternoon). As upper low shifts east air mass aloft will decrease, and depending on timing of cloud cover/precip we may trend cooler than guidance is currently indicating. For now consensus is favoring slightly below normal highs in the lower 80s for most locations in our CWA. Upper ridge over the central plains to start the period will break down by the end of the week to be replaced by a broad southwesterly flow aloft across the western half of the conus.
320 AM EDT MON AUG 29 2016 High pressure will weaken over the local area today.
634 AM EDT MON AUG 29 2016 A cold front will move across the region today. High pressure returns tonight into Tuesday.
Little will change today as an upper low slowly moves east into NM and keeps deep moisture streaming overhead. Lift east of the low will combine with surface heating to help generate scattered showers and thunderstorms, especially across SE NM and the higher terrain of W TX. The upper low will more or less evolve into a weakness early this week.
As for today, the best chances for isolated thunderstorms will be over northwest Montana and the higher terrain of southwest Montana.
Upper level low can be seen on water vapor imagery across the Upper Texas Coast. Hi-res models support this, showing majority of convection holding off on moving into the area until tomorrow as the upper low works further west and South Texas fall under more unstable conditions.
Flow aloft has shifted to the southwest as an upper level trough develops over the Gulf of Alaska.
Latest IR satellite data does however suggest some better advection of the low moisture approaching NE Wayne county, which should evolve into a low stratus deck with the onset of daytime heating. With continued dry advection today (925-850 mb theta-e trough over eastern thumb region) and increased daytime boundary layer mixing taking place, dew pts should take noticeably dive to around 60 degrees, with highs in the low to mid 80s based off 925 mb temps of 20-22 C. Big pattern shift for the end of the work week as upper level trough develops over the Eastern United States. Surface cold front tracking through southeast Michigan appears to be on track for Tuesday Night.
Will see some cooler nights Tue night through Thu night.
449 AM EDT MON AUG 29 2016 High pressure will reaming over the region through Tuesday night.
A modestly unstable environment remains south of the ridging and is characterized by high pwats(near 2 inches), very weak deep layer shear and weak steering flow(10kts or less). Best potential would be in the vicinity of the high ridging where the surface flow is the weakest and best near surface vorticity should reside.
An upper level low pressure system over the Four Corners area will move slowly eastward today, as a ridge of high pressure builds over the Great Basin. The ridge of high pressure will remain over the region on Tuesday, before shifting east.
An broad upper level ridge will prevail over the lower and middle MS River valley through Tuesday. Thereafter, the ridge will retrograde to the intermountain west and high plains, as upper level energy drops southeast out of central Canada into the Great Lakes and Ohio River valley.
323 AM EDT MON AUG 29 2016 A cold front will slowly move across the region today. High pressure will then build into the region tonight into Tuesday.
An upper level low pressure system currently centered very near the four corners, will track east and weaken tonight into Monday.
With continued dry advection today (925-850 mb theta-e trough over eastern thumb region) and increased daytime boundary layer mixing taking place, dew pts should take noticeably dive to around 60 degrees, with highs in the low to mid 80s based off 925 mb temps of 20-22 C. Big pattern shift for the end of the work week as upper level trough develops over the Eastern United States. Surface cold front tracking through southeast Michigan appears to be on track for Tuesday Night.
227 AM EDT MON AUG 29 2016 A weak cold front will sag southward on Monday and Tuesday.
A dry cold front will push south through much of the area east of the Continental Divide tonight with northeast winds and cooler temperatures. high pressure aloft will build north on Monday with lighter winds. isolated thunderstorms may develop over the higher mountains along the continental divide and the bighorn mountains.
An upper trough will try to become established over the Pacific coast.
The water vapor shows the wet half of the now elongated upper low content just off shore, but still in a good position to favor a sea breeze into our cwa with a tiny vort moving in over SW LA at this time. The models keep this low slowly sinking southward in the coming days. In general, high pressure on the surface will reside over the Eastern half of the country.
235 AM CDT MON AUG 29 2016 Cooler temperatures aloft today combined with strong daytime heating of moist airmass should give way to scattered diurnally driven convection across the region for this afternoon/evening. Heading into Tuesday upper level ridge begins to amplify over the Rockies with a short wave trough aloft dropping southeast across the upper Mississippi valley region. Once again strong daytime heating of moist airmass should give way to afternoon convection on Tuesday but we should witness a little more coverage with aid of weak upper level trough axis.
154 AM EDT Mon Aug 29 2016 Warm and mainly dry weather is expected with building high pressure early this week. A midweek cold front should return seasonal temperatures to the region by the end of the week.
Mostly sunny but cooler today with highs from the low to mid 70s in the Turtle Mountains to the lower 80s along the southern Tier of counties. At upper levels, a ridge builds over the Front Range in response to an upper level low that moves into the coast of British Columbia/Washington. In response, broad low pressure develops over the Rockies. The upper level low over the west coast continues to expand, and the downstream ridge expands eastward.
At 00z Monday an upper low was located near the four corners region and an upper level ridge axis extended from the Mid to Lower Mississippi Valley to the Mid Atlantic States. At the surface a trough of low pressure was located over eastern Colorado with another surface boundary appearing across northwest Oklahoma and south central Kansas.
535 AM CDT MON AUG 29 2016 Current surface obs indicating a cold front extending from north central to west central SD very early this morning. This boundary will slide slowly southward through today, becoming situated just north of the Highway 14 corridor by late afternoon, bringing a small threat of thunderstorm development over that area after 21z. It will be another very warm and humid day with highs in the lower 80s east of Interstate 29 to near 90 through the James River Valley and south central SD - this in conjunction with afternoon dew points in the mid 60s to near 70. Overnight lows will be once again be relatively mild , bottoming out in the lower to mid 60s.
112 AM EDT MON AUG 29 2016 A weak cold front will sag southward on Monday and Tuesday.
356 AM CDT MON AUG 29 2016 Models continue to advertise large scale pattern becoming well amplified over the next couple days with an upper ridge becoming established over the central conus by mid week. POPs in going forecast look reasonable for now as models persist in showing several impulses undercutting the developing upper ridge will help maintain potential for precip activity across the majority of the central plains.
527 AM EDT Mon Aug 29 2016 Warm and mainly dry weather is expected with building high pressure early this week. The passage of a mid week cold front should return seasonal temperatures to the region.
This will keep just a chance of an afternoon shower or storm in the forecast, mainly west of the Blue Ridge, with warm late summer temperatures near normal. Lows tonight will generally be in the mid/upper 60s east of the Ridge with low/mid 60s west. For Monday, as the upper ridge flattens and gets squeezed a bit to the west as a vigorous short wave moves through New England. This will allow a weak boundary to sink into the area from the northwest and bring a good chance for more showers/storms to southeast WV and the Alleghany Highlands of VA, with an isolated shower/storm possible extending back west of the Blue Ridge to the Mountain Empire of VA.
605 AM EDT MON AUG 29 2016 High pressure moving slowly southeast across the Great Lakes will provide generally fair weather across our area today and tonight, though there remains a small chance of showers and thunderstorms over southwestern portions of the area through this evening close to a lingering frontal boundary. Highs today will be in the middle to upper 80s with lows tonight in the lower to middle 60s.
Currently mostly clear skies over Central Alabama, as an upper level ridge is centered over Indiana and Kentucky, keeping a fairly calm weather pattern over the region. Today's forecast projects that a small vorticity pocket, supported by slight jet divergence, will carve a weakness in the ridge starting in Georgia andthen drop into the eastern portion of Central Alabama this afternoon.
/issued 1020 PM CDT SUN AUG 28 2016/ Nearly stationary upper low over Galveston Bay has continued to drive convection across the southern half of our region for much of the early evening.
411 AM EDT Mon Aug 29 2016 A cold front will move through the north country overnight with isolated showers and thunderstorms and will bring cooler and drier air to the region on Monday. A ridge of high pressure will build into the region Monday night and will remain through Tuesday.
325 AM EDT Mon Aug 29 2016 High pressure will remain over the Mid Atlantic today before moving offshore.
The region is initially influence by a weak southwest flow around an upper level high pressure near Arkansas. We may also see some remnants of an upper level low in the 4-corners regain meander East as it dissipates.
128 AM EDT MON AUG 29 2016 Aviation High pressure will control our weather until Tuesday at which point a cold front will begin to move through the state. Cooler and much less humid air will flow into behind the cold front for the end of the week. High pressure overhead will result in calm winds tonight. A cold front will approach the cwa Tuesday and pass through the cwa Tuesday night.
For today, northern Arizona will be under synoptic subsidence on the back side of a weakening upper low over NW New Mexico as high pressure builds into the southwestern US.
A low pressure disturbance will impact the area tonight into tomorrow, bringing breezy winds, slightly cooler temperatures and a minor possibility of dry thunderstorms over the north Bay. A mean trough pattern will bring continued below seasonal temperatures through the end of the week. Fort Ord profiler also indicates that the depth of the layer has dropped to less than 1,500 feet marking the lowest value in quite some time.
Steady southerly winds are common, with temps in the low 70s and dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s. This trough/cold front will sink and extend from our MN counties through central SD, and become the focus for shower and thunderstorm development coinciding with peak daytime heating. Behind the cold front, high pressure over southern Saskatchewan and western ND at 00Z Tuesday will slowly sink a ridge across the region.
1232 AM CDT MON AUG 29 2016 Warm/moist advective processes are well underway this afternoon and continue to strengthen with time, with the surface warm front now lying roughly from near Grand Forks, to just west of Brainerd, to the northern suburbs of the MSP metro area. There is some uncertainty regarding severe potential with the cold front later Monday/Monday night, which is somewhat conditional on the departure/dissipation of morning clouds and destabilization in the wake of overnight convection. The cold front will continue to move through NW WI monday evening continuing showers and thunderstorms through the region. The precipitation will taper off west to east after midnight as the cold front moves out of the area. On Tuesday, an upper level ridge will begin to develop in the west and drift east over the upper midwest.
High clouds, originating from Tropical Storm Madeline to the east of Hawaii, are moving into NorCal early this morning as flow aloft becomes more southwesterly ahead of the developing trough over the Gulf of Alaska.
455 AM MDT MON AUG 29 2016 Water vapor imagery this morning is clearly showing the area of low pressure over north central New Mexico. This closed low is responsible for the showers and occasional lightning strikes over extreme southeastern portions of our CWA. A ridge of high pressure will remain anchored over the western half of the CONUS through the workweek as a trough of low pressure moves inland and impacts the Pacific Northwest.
431 AM EDT Mon Aug 29 2016 A surface cold front continues to move across the North Country this morning with some clouds and a wind shift to the northwest. Temperatures will warm into the 70s today and cooler into the 40s and 50s tonight under clear skies and light winds.
244 AM EDT MON AUG 29 2016 A weak cold front will sag slowly southeast across the region early today.
Low temperatures will bottom out in the lower 70s again.
622 AM EDT MON AUG 29 2016 High pressure will weaken over the local area today.
246 AM CDT MON AUG 29 2016 Upper level high pressure will continue to be the main weather feature on the charts today. This upper level high, which is basically sitting right over us, will actually retrograde westward with time early this week. As the upper high begins retrograding westward on Tuesday, it weakens as well.
647 AM EDT MON AUG 29 2016 High pressure will reaming over the region through Tuesday night.
323 AM CDT MON AUG 29 2016 Easterly low level fetch today will continue to pull moisture into the area from the Gulf of Mexico around the south side of weak mid-level ridge over the southeast U. This along with parts of the area under the influence of the upper low to our west likely to result in scattered showers and thunderstorms again today.
303 AM EDT Mon Aug 29 2016 Warm and mainly dry weather is expected with building high pressure early this week. The passage of a mid week cold front should return seasonal temperatures to the region.
547 AM EDT MON AUG 29 2016 A weak cold front will sag slowly southeast across the region early today.
Western Washington will remain between a low pressure system offshore and higher pressure aloft over the Rockies through Tuesday.
318 AM EDT MON AUG 29 2016 High pressure will weaken over the local area today.