Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Southwesterly flow will increase aloft on Thursday ahead of the next upper level low pressure system for the weekend. northward across South-Central Idaho Thursday for a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms over the higher terrain.
504 AM CDT WED SEP 28 2016 A broad circulation around a deep low pressure system across the Great Lakes, will continue to wrap moisture and possibly a few light rain showers across west central Wisconsin and east central, south central Minnesota this afternoon. The other concern today is the persistent cloud cover which was to scatter out overnight, but with the system a bit further to the west and an Upper Ridge expected to build across southeast Canada, the clouds will likely linger into the evening. Eventually drier air will filter southwest as the Upper Ridge continues to build north of the Great Lakes.
440 AM EDT Wed Sep 28 2016 An upper level low will impact the area Wednesday through Thursday night.
As high pressure builds over the region, moisture will continue to be pushed off to the south and east. The highest moisture air now remains mainly over the marine areas and will continue out of the area through today. A reinforcing push of high pressure is progged into South Texas Wednesday night bringing even drier air.
322 AM CDT WED SEP 28 2016 Quiet weather conditions will continue today with noticeably cooler high temperatures. A large upper level low continues to drift southeast across the southern Great Lakes region with a strong vort lobe rotating around the back side of the low. This has allowed a cold front to push into the Central Plains and fairly strong 850mb cold air advection will continue to take place today with 850mb temps falling about 10C in 24 hours. Highs today will range from the lower 60s in our western Iowa counties to the mid to upper 60s in our Nebraska counties. This could impact areas along and east of the Missouri River today which would keep temps a few degrees cooler.
347 AM MDT WED SEP 28 2016 A digging low pressure trough off the coast of British Columbia will continue to drive the high pressure ridge, which brought mild and sunny conditions over the past few days, to the east. Concurrently, a closed low pressure system centered over southern California will continue to drift northward moving over Las Vegas late in the day. The initial moisture surge will be high based favoring showers and thunderstorms over the higher terrain surrounding the Four Corners region beginning late this morning.
644 AM EDT WED SEP 28 2016 A cold front will slowly push into the area through tonight. Cooler and drier more seasonable temperatures expected late in the week and over the weekend with little rain chances. Convection continues across our northern Forecast Area (FA) possibly along the trough or outflow boundary from previous convection. Upper level closed low over the Great Lakes region will slip slowly south into the Midwest, providing a SW flow aloft over our FA. Upper low will meander over the Ohio Valley.
321 AM CDT WED SEP 28 2016 It appears now that the closed upper low sinking south from the Great Lakes region will be the main influence over the short term.
419 AM CDT WED SEP 28 2016 Cold front just moving into the CWA yesterday morning was "supposed" to move to around the gulf coast but that didn't quite happen despite the northerly winds moving well into the coastal waters south of the area. Upper level low centered around the Great Lakes didn't move much which is likely the biggest inhibiting factor for fropa. Models still show that the upper low to the north will steadily move south to the Ohio River Valley and generally remain in place through the rest of this week.
A stronger reinforcing cold front will approach from the northwest late tomorrow aftn, with sfc winds expected to weaken and veer in advance of the front.
A back door cold front moved through Northeast Montana during the night. This will bring cooler temperatures and dry weather to the forecast area today as Canadian high pressure builds into Saskatchewan. Meanwhile, upper ridge will also remain over Eastern Montana today. Temperatures will be somewhat warmer as thermal ridge develops over Montana.
It appears now that the closed upper low sinking south from the Great Lakes region will be the main influence over the short term.
248 AM EDT WED SEP 28 2016 A cold front will slowly push into the area through Wednesday night. Cooler and drier more seasonable temperatures expected late in the week and over the weekend with little rain chances. Convection continues across our northern Forecast Area (FA) possibly along the trough or outflow boundary from previous convection. Upper level closed low over the Great Lakes region will slip slowly south into the Midwest, providing a SW flow aloft over our FA. Upper low will meander over the Ohio Valley.
411 AM CDT WED SEP 28 2016 Morning WV satellite imagery shows an upper level trough centered over the Great Lakes extending down into the lower Mississippi River Valley and Southern Plains. The first cold front associated with this trough has already moved offshore resulting in cooler air working into the region this morning. Model guidance indicates that the 500 hPa trough will continue to cut off today and Thursday with the low drifting southward.
A strong vort max will enter the region today as a deep upper low and cold front dive south into the Ohio Valley. Quite the gradient of temps are expected today as convection and the cooler airmass limits highs over southern IN/north central KY to the upper 60s while south central KY warms into the mid 70s. However, will still keep 20-30% POPs overnight as lobes of vorticity continue to rotate around the upper low sparking some convection. With the cold core directly over central KY, temperatures will be limited to the low to mid 60s.
317 AM EDT Wed Sep 28 2016 Canadian high pressure will continue to build into the region from the north today through Thursday. The high will remain parked to our north while low pressure over the midwest drifts slowly north and east.
A weak cold front stretches from northern Georgia southwestward to southern Alabama. The better chances will be across southwest Georgia and Florida panhandle as the higher resolution models depict some drier air infiltrating southeast Alabama this afternoon. Cold front is located to our north and west across southern Alabama and central Georgia. The front won't make much headway today and will have to wait on reinforcing high pressure tonight and Thursday.
A weak cold front will move south across TAF sites starting around 15Z. /Issued 302 PM CDT TUE SEP 27 2016/ Current water vapor imagery shows stacked upper low over the Great Lakes region beginning to push south towards the upper Ohio Valley. The upper low over the Great Lakes is progged to become a cutoff low as it moves south out over the upper Mississippi Valley while a more robust ridge builds in over the Plains.
226 AM CDT WED SEP 28 2016 Northerly flow behind a large upper level low over the Great Lakes will help to drive a cold front through the panhandles today.
330 AM PDT WED SEP 28 2016 Cool down begins today with much cooler temperatures by the end of the week as a weather system moves toward NorCal. Clear skies and mild temperatures across interior NorCal early this morning as strong high pressure is gradually giving way to a trough approaching from the Gulf of Alaska. The approaching trough will gradually deepen off the PacNW coast over the next several days bringing a cooling trend to NorCal along with increasingly breezy southwest winds. In addition to the synoptic cooling associated with the weakening high pressure, the increasing onshore flow will provide additional cooling.
426 AM EDT Wed Sep 28 2016 High pressure will bring the area mostly sunny skies through this morning before clouds increase and thicken late this afternoon. A cold clear morning across the region as temperatures range from the upper 30s in the cooler valleys to the middle 40s on the hilltops. Mostly sunny skies will persist through early afternoon with high pressure in the vicinity. Late this afternoon clouds will increase from south to north as the upper level low in the western Great Lakes begins dropping south. Over the northern forecast area will cap pops at low chance or slight chance as high pressure in eastern Canada will keep a drier low level easterly flow.
326 AM CDT Wed Sep 28 2016 Water vapor satellite imagery/RAP 500mb analysis shows a closed low centered near Green Bay WI. Temperatures as of 2 am were in the upper 40s to the lower 50s. The closed low will sink south toward Indiana today with deep/cool cyclonic flow continuing across our region. another cooler than normal day on tap with highs topping off in the lower 60s. Closed low continues to sink southward into the Ohio River Valley Thursday into Thursday night which will allow default ridging across our region for clearing skies. Latest GFS/ECMWF in good agreement on lifting the closed low back north into the lower MI through the weekend, bringing with it cyclonic flow and threat for showers/sprinkles back into our region.
441 AM CDT WED SEP 28 2016 Today through Thursday night, An omega block covering most of the nation will help to maintain a deep upper low anchored over the Ohio Valley region as we go through the next couple of days. Cyclonic flow on the backside of the low will continue to send cooler and drier air into the forecast area as a result. A more significant cold front is progged to move through the area tonight and be south of the ArkLaMiss by daybreak Thursday. The fire weather danger threat shouldn't be quite as great given cooler temperatures and higher relative humidity.
315 AM MDT WED SEP 28 2016 Blocking pattern in place across the CONUS this week as downstream upper-low near the Great Lakes is taking its time departing. Satellite pix early this morning reveal cloudless skies across much of the intermountain west with a cold front evident settling south thru central Montana. This as an upper-level ridge of high pressure amplifies along the front range.
410 AM MDT WED SEP 28 2016 Upper low over southern CA and western AZ will lift slowly northward over the next 24 hours spreading mid/high level moisture into the Continental Divide region by this afternoon. Increased mid/high cloud cover should keep min temperatures warmer than past few nights.
143 AM EDT Wed Sep 28 2016 Heavy rain remains possible across portions of south-central and southeastern Pennsylvania tonight through Thursday, as moisture increases ahead of an anomalous upper low digging from the Midwest to the Tennessee Valley.
329 AM CDT WED SEP 28 2016 Early this morning a closed low pressure system was sagging southward across the Great Lakes Region with an associated backdoor cold front pushing southwestward through the Plains and Midwest. The closed low will continue to drift southward into the Ohio River Valley today with the cold front pushing into and through the CWA. This airmass should remain common through the end of the work week as the closed low stalls near/just south of the Ohio River Valley.
236 AM MDT Wed Sep 28 2016 Water vapor shows large upper low over the Great Lakes with ridge over the nrn rockies/nrn plains. Nice fall weather will continue through Thursday with upper ridge in control. Temps a couple degrees warmer on Thursday as upper ridge axis moves through the nrn plains.
229 AM CDT WED SEP 28 2016 Backdoor cold front will bring chilly conditions to the region today.
A cold front was working through the forecast area this morning. This front will produce easterly low level flow today and allow high temperatures to be around 10 degrees cooler compared to yesterday.
132 AM EDT Wed Sep 28 2016 An encroaching upper low will return rain to the Upper Ohio Region for the latter half of the week. The Great Lakes upper low is forecast to dig southward across the Mid, and Upper Ohio Valley for the latter half of the week. The better chances for sustained rainfall is over areas north of I 70 where a southeasterly wind will briefly support transport of deeper Atlantic moisture into a frontal zone rotating around the upper low on Thursday.
Nearly clear skies will last another period in southern Idaho before low pressure moves in from the south. The GFS has a more southerly track, with the low only giving us the wrap-around moisture for part of the time, mainly Mon/Mon night. The ECMWF brings the low directly through eastern Idaho, hitting the entire forecast area pretty hard with rain and snow. The approach of this low, from the west, does mean it will have some colder air with it. A low pressure disturbance in the Eastern Pacific continues to develop and move closer to the west coast today. Southerly winds, particularly at ridge top will increase in Zones 476 and 427 this afternoon with gusts up to 25 mph.
638 AM EDT Wed Sep 28 2016 Canadian high pressure will continue to build into the region from the north today through Thursday. The high will remain parked to our north while low pressure over the midwest drifts slowly north and east.
435 AM EDT Wed Sep 28 2016 Heavy rain remains possible across portions of south-central and southeastern Pennsylvania tonight through Thursday, as moisture increases ahead of an anomalous upper low digging from the Midwest to the Tennessee Valley.
The upper low over Lake MI will slowly move swd across IN today and tonight. For tonight, slight warm advection and drying on the back side of the upper low may result in partly cloudy to mostly clear skies.
Each TAF contains VCTS today with TLH and VLD having the highest probability to have convection on station this afternoon. Vapor imagery and upper air data showed a closed low centered over the Great Lakes, with a potent short wave trough digging across the upper Midwest.
400 AM EDT Wed Sep 28 2016 Nearly stationary upper level low pressure over Lake Superior will continue to bring dry and seasonally warm conditions to the North Country through Wednesday.
208 AM EDT Wed Sep 28 2016 Nearly stationary upper level low pressure over Lake Superior will continue to bring dry and seasonally warm conditions to the North Country through Wednesday.
1222 AM CDT WED SEP 28 2016 No weather concerns in this period what so ever as a massive high pressure ridge dominates the weather map. The only interesting thing would be a backdoor cold front that will spread a reinforcing shot of cool air over the region on Wednesday. Temperatures on Wednesday will be about 10 degrees cooler than today.
The mean sea level pressure pattern across the Florida Keys remains quite weak, even though a subtle westward shift in the Atlantic ridge has allowed MSL pressure values to rise about 2 millibars during the last 24 hours. Prognostic Overview -- The Atlantic ridge will build temporarily westward across the Florida Keys today through Thursday, and we think the slightly more anticyclonic flow in the lower troposphere may cut down on shower and thunderstorm coverage through Thursday. the light west-southwest low-level flow today will favor a "reverse" cumulus line along and downwind of the lower Keys, and this area will have the best chance for showers and thunderstorms today.
Deep circulation over the Lower Great Lakes makes its way slowly southeast into the Ohio Valley driving another cold front into the region shortly after the forecast period.
Nearly clear skies will last another period in southern Idaho before low pressure moves in from the south. The GFS has a more southerly track, with the low only giving us the wrap-around moisture for part of the time, mainly Mon/Mon night. The ECMWF brings the low directly through eastern Idaho, hitting the entire forecast area pretty hard with rain and snow. The approach of this low, from the west, does mean it will have some colder air with it. Cloud cover and additional moisture will result in afternoon temperatures 5-10 degrees cooler with humidity in the 25- 45 percent range.
A weak cold front will ooze into the region Wednesday night. A deep upper low will cut off and sag south over the Ohio River Valley while upper ridging builds in over the Plains this week. The upper low to our east will send a weak backdoor cold front through the area overnight tonight.
Stacked low pressure system slides slowly southeast today through tonight. Lows will be in the lower and middle 50s.
An upper ridge will bring dry, mild weather to Western Washington today and Tuesday. Tonight will be cool with patchy fog and freezing fog.
Freezing fog advisories are in effect for the Blue Mountain Foothills until 11 AM this morning. Patchy freezing fog has developed in and around the Columbia Basin this morning. Another day of strong subsidence associated with high pressure ridge aloft will allow temperatures in the mountains and higher valleys as well as Central OR to warm into the 40s. The Columbia Basin and surrounding valleys underneath the low level inversion will not be so lucky and will only warm into the mid to upper 30s.
1035 AM MST Mon Feb 13 2017 Imagery shows split flow across the west with a deep closed, nearly cut-off, low and associated trof, helping in separating air-masses, centered over northern Mexico. Upstream ridge now along the CONUS west coast. SFC has high pressure across most of the CONUS, including WY, with low pressure generally over the southernmost portions of the USA.
As far as wintry precipitation goes, most locations are above freezing, and it appears they will stay that way. Had a report of sleet and freezing rain accumulation that occurred overnight in the Guadalupe Mountains, but precipitation ended near Queen by 13/15Z. Think the Guadalupes could see some more light precipitation through the afternoon, but temperatures are creeping up to freezing, and expect they will rise above freezing during the afternoon. In addition, will cancel the rest of the High Wind Warning for Guadalupe Pass as sustained winds will likely decrease more this afternoon.
308 PM EST Mon Feb 13 2017 High pressure builds into the area tonight and Tuesday.
902 AM MST Mon Feb 13 2017 High pressure ridging and rising heights will build across the forecast area today. The ridge axis will be situated west of the state allowing for some high level clouds over Canada to move south across our area today. Upper ridge seen early this morning along the BC/Pacific NW coast will push inland today and slide gradually SE across the region through Tue. The ridge will bring dry and warmer weather, with windy conditions from KBIL W Tue.
High pressure will continue to dominate weather across the Southern Appalachian Region tonight for mostly clear skies. The high will pull out of the area on Tuesday. allowing a low pressure system to approach for the west. Clouds will increase throughout the day with a slight chance of showers moving in late in the afternoon as the low advances toward the region.
High pressure to the north will continue to shift to the east and allow a storm system to approach from the southwest. Today Through Tuesday Night Drier and cooler airmass contd to advect into AR overnight following the passage of a CDFNT on Sun. An area of mid lvl clouds moved into SWRN AR early this mrng, keeping temps in the lower and mid 50s. Models have stayed in good agreement with the timing and track of the aforementioned storm sys, taking the low center to the S of AR late Tue and Tue ngt. Rainfall wl begin to taper off fm the NW late Tue ngt as the low center begins to shift E of the FA.
327 PM CST Mon Feb 13 2017 Compact wave in northwest flow will bring some subtle changes to conditions as is slides southeast across Minnesota this evening, and pushes a cold front across the area. This favorable weather is care of the northern stream jet remaining just to the north of the area with a gradually building ridge of high pressure aloft.
318 PM CST Mon Feb 13 2017 Water vapor imagery shows upper low approaching sw TX with mid level warm advection and increasing upper diffluence ahead of this wave resulting in showers moving into central/south central KS. Sharp upper ridging will develop over the Rockies and into the Plains by Thu with another southern stream impulse over northern Mexico. There is some agreement between the ECMWF and GFS in tracking a sharp upper trough across the Rockies and out into the Plains Sun night through Monday night which will bring another chance of rain for much of our area.
1126 AM CST Mon Feb 13 2017 Surface map this morning features high pressure centered over MO with ridge axis extending northward into the Upper Mississippi River Valley. High pressure pushes off to the east today and a cold front drops through the Dakotas into MN. For Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night, a cold front will drop across the area into the Great Lakes region for a chance of snow showers.
Highs will be a few degrees warmer than yesterday with most areas reaching the 40s to low 50s. Upper ridging will persist into Tuesday with sunny skies. Strong upper ridging will continue to affect the western to central CONUS through most of the extended.
908 AM PST Mon Feb 13 2017 Fair and warmer today as low pressure moves east. Cooler on tuesday with areas of low clouds west of the mountains as a weak trough spins up a coastal eddy.
Tuesday night expected to be dry, as strong downward motions resume following the passage of mid-level trof.
Temperatures will likely top out in the upper 40s to the lower 50s for highs. Overnight lows will cool into the lower 30s in many areas. We'll see partly to mostly cloudy skies with highs in the lower 50s. For now, have kept chance PoPs going across the south with lows in the lower 30s in the north and in the middle 30s across the south. The upper level pattern over the CONUS will feature a ridge over the western US with a large trough axis over the eastern US.
A cold front was moving into central Florida this afternoon and will continue to slide into south Florida tonight into Tuesday morning before stalling and washing out. Lows tonight will be much cooler than this morning in the mid 40s to mid 50s. The low level flow will veer from the northeast today to the southeast and south during the day on Tuesday.
But each day under the current ridge we add some moisture to the surface layer of the atmosphere, so despite a lack of fog on recent mornings, we still expect it to increase the next few days.
1212 PM EST Mon Feb 13 2017 High pressure will build over the area through Tuesday.
1133 AM CST Mon Feb 13 2017 255 AM CST High pressure is centered over northern Missouri early this morning with ridging extending across portions of the Midwest providing fair weather conditions to much of the region today. Light winds this morning will become a modest southwest breeze this afternoon as the ridge axis shifts to our east and low pressure drops across the Canadian Prairies.
We also have some peaks of sun, but lots of clouds in the low levels from 3-7kft. Also our VAD has shown a shallowing of E/NE flow with some veering to SE under the lowest cloud base. Wind speeds in the 5-7 kt range overnight coupled with a drier airmass ushered in by yesterday's cold front should mitigate fog potential overnight.
1247 PM EST Mon Feb 13 2017 High pressure builds in today for decreasing winds and dry conditions. Cold front with light rain and snow showers mid week.
353 PM EST Mon Feb 13 2017 Tightening pressure gradient between a deepening low pressure system dropping southeast from the western shore of Hudson Bay and surface riding settling south of the area will lead to steady southwest flow overnight tonight promoting warm air advection into Tuesday morning. With clear skies and relatively light winds early, expect the low temperatures to occur by midnight with steady to slowly rising temperatures overnight.
1053 AM MST Mon Feb 13 2017 A low pressure system moving out of the Desert Southwest will mean a lingering chance of showers mainly across eastern Arizona through Tuesday.
A high pressure ridge aloft will continue to build over the region today.
Despite the passage of a surface cold front earlier today, temperatures this afternoon were still above average- in the upper 60s north to mid 70s south. A deep layer ridge will begin building across the Gulf Coast tonight in the wake of the cold front, and we expect fair weather.