Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
336 AM MDT Mon Sep 4 2017 Forecast issues will be temperatures through the period along with the low chance of precipitation tonight. Broad and strong ridge is dominating most of the western half of the country with a trough over the eastern portion leaving a northwest flow aloft over the area. Cold front and easterly upslope winds look to be through the entire area by late morning. So did not make any changes to the high temperatures. Based on that and good collaboration I lowered the lows from what the blend gave me.
A southward progressing and fairly strong cold front, will move toward the area this evening and across the area overnight and Tuesday morning. Thunderstorms will accompany the front with much cooler temps following. There is some offset of upper level wind dynamics and the surface cold front (better dynamics lag frontal convergence and instability) yet it may be sufficient to yield a severe threat per the SPC Day 1 Outlook.
358 AM EDT Mon Sep 4 2017 Local area continues to be under the influence of high pressure from the mid atlantic states through North GA providing for a tranquil weather pattern. In general went on the high side of guidance, especially for NW corner late where PWs increase to 1.
A big ridge of high pressure will build over the western United States, and that is where the heat will go. East of the Rockies, a large trough will be carved out, with a northwest wind flow aloft driving a cold front through Arkansas. Rain will taper off from the north Tuesday night, and it will be a lot cooler.
317 AM EDT Mon Sep 4 2017 High pressure builds over the local area this morning. A strong cold front approaches from the northwest Tuesday night.
321 AM CDT Mon Sep 4 2017 Forecast highlights in the short term period will be cooler temperatures and gusty winds. Currently, strong northwest flow aloft between a persistent ridge of high pressure across the western U. and deep low pressure over Hudson Bay. Lows mainly in the 40s with dry air advection this afternoon and the lower Tds lingering tonight. Cooler temperatures with highs around 70F. Much drier air is forecast to spread into western ND this afternoon associated with an area of high pressure in Canada.
IR imagery indicates mostly clear to partly cloudy conditions across the island chain, with a mass of clouds across the southeastern gulf along a weak trough. Temperatures are in the low to mid 80s. The weak trough that has lingered across the eastern gulf for several days will lift north and west, stalling across the northern Florida peninsula and central gulf.
Weak lift and the lack of low level moisture ahead of a passing cold front will produce only patchy cloud cover this evening across portions of the Midsouth. /issued 251 PM CDT Sat May 6 2017/ Surface analysis this afternoon places a ridge of high pressure over Texas with a weak cold front beginning to enter portions of Northwest Tennessee. A weak cold front will drop through the Mid-South through this evening.
Dry high pressure will continue to hold across the region. /issued 639 PM CDT Sat May 6 2017/ Dry high pressure will continue to hold across the region. Dry high pressure will continue to hold across the region. Long wave trough will remain over the eastern U. with upper ridge forecasted over the Southern Plains.
An upper level trough continues to slowly move westward across southern Canada overnight. Still some light precipitation occurring overnight in far eastern Oregon under the southerly flow ahead of the trough.
Moisture is very limited with dewpoints barely reaching the low 50s right ahead of the front.
1203 AM EDT Sun May 7 2017 Aviation The next few nights will be rather chilly and subfreezing temperatures are possible across all of southwest Lower Michigan Sunday night. A few locations may fall to around freezing north of M- 20 tonight.
Proton Previous Discussion: Northern branch of upper trough moves into the Pacific NW tonight. Energy ahead of the trough may link up with remaining instability to give thunderstorms to the NW corner.
/issued 247 PM CDT Sat May 6 2017/ SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday night): As overhead high pressure starts to fade to the east, mid level ridging will shift over Texas. Low level moisture return will support low clouds, while the shift in the upstream mid level pattern to southwest as the influence of the upper ridge is replaced by that of the Southern California upper low, will favor more upper cloudiness. Although low temperatures tonight in the lower 60s will be a bit below normal, temperatures on Sunday and Sunday night will be near normal, and the halcyon weather will continue through the short term.
Overnight, a weak cold front will move into AR, and switch winds to the northeast at 5 to 10 mph.
742 PM EDT Sat May 6 2017 Winds will diminish during the overnight and, with clear skies, temperatures will be able to dip down into the low to mid 30s. Despite plenty of sunshine for Sunday, temperatures will only reach into the low to mid 50s whereas normal temps this time of year should approach 70.
648 PM CDT Sat May 6 2017 VFR conditions will prevail through the period as dry air remains in place across the region under the influence of upper-level ridging. A high amplitude ridge will make for slow changes in the short term with minimal cloud cover expected tonight.
746 PM EDT Sat May 6 2017 Low pressure will maintain rain chances through the weekend. Latest model soundings are showing that after 06z on the highest ridge tops, the air column should be cold enough to support all snow.
754 PM EDT Sat May 6 2017 Aviation The next few nights will be rather chilly and subfreezing temperatures are possible across all of southwest Lower Michigan Sunday night. A few locations may fall to around freezing north of M- 20 tonight.
1258 AM EDT Sun May 7 2017 Winds will diminish during the overnight and, with clear skies, temperatures will be able to dip down into the lower to mid 30s by daybreak.
722 PM EDT Sat May 6 2017 Scattered showers associated with an upper level low over the eastern U.
Numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms tonight as upper level low gradually moves inland maintaining moist and unstable S/SW f low aloft over the region. As the upper level trough along the West Coast progresses eastward, the biggest change anticipated for Sunday and Sunday night will be much cooler temperatures from those of today and tonight.
/12/ Prior discussion below: Today through tonight: The pleasant conditions will continue for the remainder of the afternoon and into this evening as high pressure at the surface sits in place across the forecast area under northwest flow aloft. Lows tonight will remain on the cool side as they fall into the low and middle 50s. Conditions will be a bit warmer than those observed on Saturday. /19/ The strong upper trough will continue to move off to the east on Sunday as upper ridging builds into the ArkLaMiss from the Southern Plains.
/ISSUED 353 PM CDT Sat May 6 2017/ A beautiful early May spring day as temperatures are warming into the lower 80s. Large amplified ridge axis across the Rockies providing this dry and stable upper-mid level northwest flow pattern. increasing moisture/humidity levels each subsequently warmer day through mid week.
650 PM CDT Sat May 6 2017 Low pressure system from the clipper-like upper short wave is quickly moving into central Tennessee. High pressure settles over the area tonight with a light and variable wind.
1134 PM CDT Sat May 6 2017 Low pressure system from the clipper-like upper short wave is quickly moving into central Tennessee. High pressure settles over the area tonight with a light and variable wind.
731 PM EDT Sat May 6 2017 Low pressure over upstate New York will track north into Ontario Sunday. Weak high pressure will build into the area late Sunday, and remain through midweek. The cold front has crossed the forecast area. While the mid level thicknesses are cold enough to support snow, low level thicknesses aren't, and only the highest of the mountaintops will have lows in the mid 30s (with wind, so no frost). The trough axis at 500 mb swings through Sunday, with some positive vorticity advection as well, so it should be a fairly cloudy day once again. maybe a degree or two warmer since there will be less rain.
But expect winds to decrease overnight and allow temps to fall near forecast lows in the low to mid 50s which is unseasonably cool for this time of year by about 10 degrees. Local pressure gradient weakens further as the GOMEX high pressure ridge continues to build toward Florida in the wake of the distant low lifting north over eastern Canada. Winds/seas will subside further on Sunday to AOB 10KT/3FT, with boating conditions becoming favorable as high pressure ridge slides east toward the state.
Will keep chance of showers rest of evening then will have decreasing clouds as low pressure area and weak front shifts south. Upper trough will shift east too.
1207 AM EDT Sun May 7 2017 Strong low pressure over northern New York will continue moving away from the region with the upper level trough lingering over the eastern US.
623 PM CDT Sat May 6 2017 A mid/upper ridge remains parked across the Central Conus with mild and dry weather conditions in place.
1044 PM EDT Sat May 6 2017 Low pressure will drift northward through Quebec through Sunday night.
West-southwest to west winds prevailed in the lower levels, while mainly northwest flow was observed in the mid and upper levels. Warm and dry conditions will prevail as high pressure firmly entrenches itself over the forecast area.
Dry high pressure will continue to hold across the region. Long wave trough will remain over the eastern U. with upper ridge forecasted over the Southern Plains.
/issued 324 PM CDT Sat May 6 2017/ (Tonight and Sunday) This afternoon, an upper low is dropping south off the California coast, and an upper trough encompasses much of the eastern third of the CONUS. Between these features, an upper level ridge extends from northeastern Mexico north across the High Plains and into southern Canada west of Lake Manitoba. The ridge will be our dominant feature tonight and Sunday, with the ridge axis gradually shifting east across our area.
/BB/ Today through tonight: The pleasant conditions will continue for the remainder of the afternoon and into this evening as high pressure at the surface sits in place across the forecast area under northwest flow aloft. Lows tonight will remain on the cool side as they fall into the low and middle 50s. Conditions will be a bit warmer than those observed on Saturday. /19/ The strong upper trough will continue to move off to the east on Sunday as upper ridging builds into the ArkLaMiss from the Southern Plains.
728 PM EDT Sat May 6 2017 Strong low pressure over northern New York will continue moving away from the region with the upper level trough lingering over the eastern US. An approaching short wave trough will bring a chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms to the area this evening into tonight with high pressure and drier air building in for Sunday into the middle of the week. Upper level trough remains over the region with a short wave currently moving into western NC. The short wave will quickly rotate through the base of the trough and move east of the forecast area during the early morning hours with a couple tenths of rainfall from the central Midlands northward. Afternoon high temperatures remain on track for the low 70s with overnight lows tonight in the mid 40s to low 50s.
Only other update was to adjust trends based on the latest obs, with the rest of the forecast in great shape with high pressure overhead. The cold frontal boundary that brought showers and thunderstorms to South Florida yesterday continues to move off well to the east across the central Bahamas and into the open Atlantic. In its wake, dry high pressure continues to build into the region, with dewpoints falling well into the 50s and even upper 40s. With daytime high temperatures struggling to reach into the upper 70s for most areas, it is noticeably cooler across the region despite abundant sunshine. For tonight, continued quiet weather continues with clear skies and chilly low temperatures ranging from the low and mid 50s in the interior, to upper 50s to mid 60s along the Atlantic and Gulf coasts.
/Issued 346 PM CDT Sat May 6 2017/ An upper ridge over the area will continue to result in warm and dry weather for the next several days.
Clear skies and warm temperatures were observed across the region today, as a ridge of high pressure slowly moved in from the west. Similar conditions are expected on Sunday, with sunny skies and highs again ranging from the low 80s over southeastern Kansas to mid 70s over the eastern Ozarks.
610 PM CDT Sat May 6 2017 A blocking pattern has set up over the midwest for the next few days. A deep long wave trough over the Ohio Valley has developed a weak backdoor cold frontal boundary that extends from southern IL up into central MO. The weaker cooler air aloft and northerly winds will somewhat inhibit the high temperatures today expected in the mid to upper 70s. The main ridge over the northern plains will start to move into the area Sunday helping to increase low level temperatures slightly, with the possibility of a few 80s in the western portion of the CWA on Sunday as a stronger wind out of the south-southeast sets up.
727 PM EDT Sat May 6 2017 Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb trough on the west coast and a trough across the ern U. with a ridge in the Rockies and plains this morning. With how dry the low level airmass is today, this will allow colder temperatures for tonight and also allow a greater range in temperatures as well.
1055 PM CDT Sat May 6 2017 A blocking pattern has set up over the midwest for the next few days. A deep long wave trough over the Ohio Valley has developed a weak backdoor cold frontal boundary that extends from southern IL up into central MO. The weaker cooler air aloft and northerly winds will somewhat inhibit the high temperatures today expected in the mid to upper 70s. The main ridge over the northern plains will start to move into the area Sunday helping to increase low level temperatures slightly, with the possibility of a few 80s in the western portion of the CWA on Sunday as a stronger wind out of the south-southeast sets up.
Weak lift and the lack of low level moisture ahead of a passing cold front will produce only patchy cloud cover this evening across portions of the Midsouth. Surface analysis this afternoon places a ridge of high pressure over Texas with a weak cold front beginning to enter portions of Northwest Tennessee. A weak cold front will drop through the Mid-South through this evening.
1036 PM EDT Sat May 6 2017 Strong low pressure over northern New York will continue moving away from the region with the upper level trough lingering over the eastern US. An approaching short wave trough will bring a chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms to the area this evening into tonight with high pressure and drier air building in for Sunday into the middle of the week. Upper level trough remains over the region with a short wave currently moving into western NC. The short wave will quickly rotate through the base of the trough and move east of the forecast area during the early morning hours with a couple tenths of rainfall from the central Midlands northward. Afternoon high temperatures remain on track for the low 70s with overnight lows tonight in the mid 40s to low 50s.
859 PM EDT Sat May 6 2017 Winds will diminish during the overnight and, with clear skies, temperatures will be able to dip down into the low to mid 30s. Despite plenty of sunshine for Sunday, temperatures will only reach into the low to mid 50s whereas normal temps this time of year should approach 70.
1155 PM CDT Sat May 6 2017 A mid/upper ridge remains parked across the Central Conus with mild and dry weather conditions in place.
1210 AM EDT Sun May 7 2017 Low pressure will maintain rain chances through this morning before building high pressure returns mainly dry weather through the first half of the week. Light rain should continue overnight as an upper low drifts east across the area. Some of the higher elevations could see a period of light snow or a rain/snow mix as cold advection continues, though only minor accumulation is expected. The precip should taper off toward morning from W-E as the low begins to exit.
1029 PM EDT Sat May 6 2017 Currently - A high pressure system resides in the western gulf of Mexico, while a large low is lifting north northeastwards over the northeastern United States. This flow continues to push cooler and drier air across the area. Expect the cooler than normal conditions to continue.
/issued 245 PM CDT Sat May 6 2017/ WV imagery shows the highly-amplified ridge moving directly over West Texas and Southeast New Mexico, as reflected in temps approaching normal at just after 17Z, and set to top out in the 90s most locations later this afternoon. Out west, a developing upper trough off the CA coast is muscling onshore, and pushing the ridge east.
814 PM EDT Sat May 6 2017 Low pressure will maintain rain chances through the weekend.
Rest of forecast is on track with temps falling into the 50s north and inland and in the lower to mid 60s near the coast and south.
Lows tonight will eventually fall into the lower to mid 50s, and the current forecast reflects this so no changes are needed at this time.
Winds will continue 15 to 30 mph through the night diminishing only gradually Sunday, due to surface pressure gradient between high pressure in WA and OR and low pressure in southern NV. Showers will also end from the northwest overnight as upper low in southern NV moves farther south.
upper low and trough currently moving onto the Pacific northwest coast are bringing a southerly flow aloft across the forecast area. Most of the dynamics associated with this are and will remain near the trough axis across western Montana this afternoon into this evening. As the trough slowly moves east, it will bring a cold front across the forecast area mid evening for the western and central areas and after midnight for the eastern areas. Temperatures will be cooler Sunday with the exception of the far southeast areas of Montana.
243 PM MST Thu Dec 28 2017 Winds have relaxed across the mountains today, and a weak surge brought in cooler air from the east, with temperatures nearly steady or slowly falling along the Front Range where we had started the day so mild. The stronger inversions will still be difficult to break in the lower elevations of the plains, so hard to say exactly how much warmup occurs there, but should see a good 10-15 degrees moderation from today.
922 AM MST Thu Dec 28 2017 Looking like some warmer temperatures are making it out into the Panhandle this morning. Winds will be relentless across the southeast Wyoming wind corridor over these next few days, as fast northwest flow combines with tight pressure gradients in the low-levels.
Ridging continues to build into the region from the eastern Pacific which will continue to result in clear skies and very warm temperatures over the next few days.
159 PM PST Thu Dec 28 2017 A persistent ridge of high pressure along the West Coast will provide quiet and dry weather through New Years Day, with above average daytime temperatures and relatively light valley winds. High pressure remains over CA/NV through the weekend, with pleasant and unusually warm December temperatures--around 15 degrees above normal for this time of year. This wave will increase the winds aloft over northern CA/NV with ridge winds increasing to near 60 mph. These stronger winds aloft will increase mixing and push temperatures in the lower valleys of western Nevada into the upper 50s and even some mid/low 60s, especially in Mono County and along the Sierra Front.
A ridge anchored over the West Coast will ensure a continuation of dry and generally mild conditions through the remainder of the month. Strong ridging will continue to move eastward allowing dry and mild conditions to remain across the Mojave Desert and southern Great Basin. This is a very strong ridge, with forecast H5 heights increasing to around 584-586 dm by Friday, which is well above the 90th percentile (578 dm). However, even with limited mixing, temperature readings should still reach 8-12 degrees above normal each afternoon under the ridge.
5PVU pressure plots show a strong upper-level short wave trough moving through IA.
1156 AM EST Thu Dec 28 2017 Cold air mass in place now as 1040 mb High centered in Ohio and its associated ridge settle into the area. Chattanooga Airport, TN 44 28 45 27 / 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 39 26 40 27 / 0 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 39 25 40 25 / 0 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 34 21 39 22 / 0 0 0 0.
Overall lift with the first system is rather weak and moisture content is very limited (mixing ratios less than 1 g/kg), so the highest snow totals will be capped at an inch or less. However, the main area of forcing is currently forecast to remain south of the forecast area, so snowfall totals should remain an inch or less with this system as well with the highest accumulations south of M-59 again.
The upper pattern is dominated by a large, deep upper trough covering the eastern 2/3 of North America, downstream from a complex blocky pattern from the Aleutians to the North Pole. Changes during the forecast period will mainly affect the structure of the block and the depth/sharpness of the eastern trough. Regardless of the details, the presence of the trough will maintain northerly upper flow across western Canada, and below normal upper heights across the forecast area. and Friday Light snow generated by isentropic lift on the back side of the departing arctic anticyclone, QG forcing with a mid-level short- wave trough, and upper divergence in the LFQ of an upper speed max will overspread the area today.
Meanwhile, temperatures will be near persistence, or a degree or two warmer at most locations. Persistent northwest flow will continue with an upper level ridge over the West Coast and the large Hudson Bay low spinning to the east. Mid level warm advection will warm things up heading into the weekend with some valleys reaching the low 50s.
345 PM CST Thu Dec 28 2017 3 pm temperatures ranged from near 70 in the southwest South Plains to only in the 30s out in the Low Rolling Plains. The low stratus bank has retreated off the Caprock, but the latest satellite imagery suggests that it's eastward progress is slowing and we expect it to soon stall, then begin to move back west this evening. Forecast soundings suggest the threat of freezing fog developing overnight across much of the Caprock, and perhaps some light freezing drizzle across the far Southern Texas Panhandle into the northern Rolling Plains. Very warm temperatures should spread farther east, although there is still a bit of uncertainty just how warm the lowest elevations will get, with the deeper inversion to overcome.
High pressure over the nation/s mid-section will provide a northeasterly to northerly flow with some slightly cooler air working in behind a diffuse frontal boundary. The low clouds and patchy fog from last night continue but are beginning to mix out and lift. High pressure north of the area as a diffuse frontal boundary slowly slides south through the waters will maintain northeast or north winds today at 15 knots or less.
154 PM EST Thu Dec 28 2017 Arctic high pressure exits tonight, but the deep freeze continues.
117 PM EST Thu Dec 28 2017 Arctic high pressure exits tonight, but the deep freeze continues.
Area of interest will be mainly Washington where moisture flow is more focused and air mass will remain subfreezing for the longest period. Winter weather advisories for a mixture of freezing rain and snow will remain in effect for the counties in Oregon bordering the Columbia River extending north into Washington.
Increasing synoptic lift associated with approaching low pressure trof and weak warm air advection producing the light snow.
1225 PM EST Thu Dec 28 2017 High pressure over Ohio will move east today as low pressure moves from the Dakotas to Minnesota.