Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Temperatures begin to trend cooler today for North-central Montana, as a cold front arrives from Canada. Overall cooler temperatures prevail through the weekend. A weak Canadian cold front located along the Hi-Line will continue to move south this morning and will begin to improve the hazy/smoky conditions over the plains. -RCG 1209 PM MDT Fri Sep 10 2021 (10/18Z TAF period) Wildfire smoke over Central/North-central is improving from north to south as a Canadian cold front moves southward. /ISSUED 540 AM MDT Fri Sep 10 2021/ A surface cold front arriving from Canada will bring cooler temperatures into North-central Montana today.
The combination of light southerly winds and increasing mid cloud associated with warm air advection will help keep overnight temperatures warmer than recent nights. Aloft, the upper level ridge across the southwest U.
High pressure aloft will continue to slowly build east into the region today, as high pressure at the surface remains wedged into the forecast area from the northeast. High pressure is building into the Mississippi River Valley on the surface map, keeping the forecast dry, and winds lighter today with the ridge axis positioned over the region. Tonight, another cool night anticipated with radiational cooling primed under clear skies with little to no wind under the ridge. Saturday: The pleasant and dry conditions we're currently enjoying will continue into Saturday as broad surface ridging continues to hold sway. Mornings will remain cooler while daytime conditions will still be seasonably warm.
248 PM CDT Fri Sep 10 2021 Quiet weather and dry conditions continue for the first part of the short term high pressure slowly drifts eastward through Saturday. Plenty of warm air advection into the region will keep temperatures on the warmer end of guidance.
200 PM CDT Fri Sep 10 2021 High pressure is moving off of the area this afternoon, but remained in place long enough for dry air to remain in place today. Smoke will not have any impact to tonight's lows, which will range from the upper 50s north to the lower 60s central and south. I'll stay with the NBM, which is cooler than prior runs and accounts for the expected deep mixing, and lower dewpoints that southwest flow should provide. All in all, apparent temperatures in the lower 90s should be paired with a 10 to 15 kt southwest wind.
222 PM EDT Fri Sep 10 2021 Dry high pressure will promote fair weather today and tonight.
The supporting upper trough was along the Oregon Coast this morning and will move rapidly eastward across our CWA this afternoon and evening. Clearing from west to east late tonight, and mostly sunny and much cooler Saturday.
Highs in the low to mid 80s and clear skies expected for the rest of the day.
357 PM EDT Fri Sep 10 2021 Cooler and drier air will filter into the area over the weekend. Latest sfc analysis shows 1020 mb high pressure centered over the OH Valley with a cold front pushing farther offshore. The high builds into the area during the Near Term period, allowing for no chance of rain and a mostly clear/sunny sky.
918 AM MDT Fri Sep 10 2021 Temperatures begin to trend cooler today for North-central Montana, as a cold front arrives from Canada. Overall cooler temperatures prevail through the weekend. A weak Canadian cold front located along the Hi-Line will continue to move south this morning and will begin to improve the hazy/smoky conditions over the plains. A cold front will also move south over the plains, which will shift winds more northerly there and help decrease the smoke somewhat. /ISSUED 540 AM MDT Fri Sep 10 2021/ A surface cold front arriving from Canada will bring cooler temperatures into North-central Montana today.
This HZ is a result of wildfire smoke from the Pacific Northwest that has drifted around high pressure and across the Great Plains to begin impacting the northern two-thirds of our airspace. /issued 1025 AM CDT Fri Sep 10 2021/ The environmental characteristics of a dry air mass will continue taking effect in the Ark-La-Tex today as the coolest morning temperatures since this past May quickly warm up to afternoon highs in the low-90s. With ridging still centered over the southern Rocky Mountains, a thin layer of wildfire smoke from the Pacific Northwest is visible on GOES-East (column-integrated smoke models estimate about 10-30 micrograms per cubic meter aloft), having made its way south across the Great Plains.
1258 PM PDT Fri Sep 10 2021 Updated air quality section Expect a trough of low pressure to move into Central California by this evening. Cooler afternoon highs are expected over the weekend due to the trough. An upper-level low pressure system is currently along the coast of Northern California/southern Oregon, per latest satellite images. Storm coverage will likely be significantly less than last night's and confined over the higher terrain. In the meantime, not so hot temperatures are in store for later today and again Saturday due to the influence of the low pressure system.
247 PM MDT Fri Sep 10 2021 Large upper ridge remains over the central and southern Rockies today with hot and dry conditions. Record breaking high temperatures in the lower 100s are expected. Upper ridge moves little for Saturday with another day of triple digit heat. Cold front will be dropping south late Saturday afternoon and Saturday evening, while an upper trough tops the ridge and moves into Nebraska.
1025 AM CDT Fri Sep 10 2021 The environmental characteristics of a dry air mass will continue taking effect in the Ark-La-Tex today as the coolest morning temperatures since this past May quickly warm up to afternoon highs in the low-90s. With ridging still centered over the southern Rocky Mountains, a thin layer of wildfire smoke from the Pacific Northwest is visible on GOES-East (column-integrated smoke models estimate about 10-30 micrograms per cubic meter aloft), having made its way south across the Great Plains.
Upper level high pressure is centered near NM this afternoon, with ridging extending north, and an upper level trough is over the eastern CONUS. At the surface, high pressure currently over the JKL forecast area will drift east, allowing for a return of warm air advection on its back side.
As the low passes to the northeast early tomorrow morning and during the day, wrap around moisture will keep showers in the forecast for northwest Montana, one reason for the higher rainfall totals compared to the rest of the region. Afternoon highs will be around 5 to 10 degrees cooler than normal for this time of the year.
High pressure centered north of the region will maintain moderate easterly winds this afternoon becoming calm overnight.
145 PM CDT Fri Sep 10 2021 (Issued 145 PM CDT Fri Sep 10 2021) Tonight through Saturday: The influence of gradually departing high pressure will dominate this period. A southwest wind will pull much warmer air into the area for Saturday. The thermal ridge amplifies across the area with some 925 temps possible teaching the mid or upper 20s celsius.
1143 AM CDT Fri Sep 10 2021 Mostly sunny skies with strong ridging is expected for much of the short term. Satellite imagery shows the main ridge building into the region. As such, could see temps a little cooler than currently forecast if the smoke remains thicker than expected.
236 PM MDT Fri Sep 10 2021 Exceptionally warm temperatures across the region this afternoon under the strong ridge of high pressure, with many locations already exceeding daily records. Smoke concentrations have improved considerably relative to yesterday, with the ridge displacing most of the smoke to our north and east.
A weak warm front will also be moving north-northeastward through this area. The warming trend will continue as the upper level ridge currently centered over northern NM shifts eastward into MO, along with increasing southwesterly surface winds Saturday. High temperatures Saturday will be warmer, and about 10 degrees above normal.
NW windsto 15 kts behind this will diminish and back to the SW ahead of the actual cold front which will drop south thru the area overnight. Cooler this weekend and westerly flow aloft will bring in some mid level clouds at times.
Another hot and dry day is anticipated tomorrow, albeit a couple of degrees cooler than today as the strength of the upper ridge begins to wane and hghts aloft decrease.
257 PM CDT Fri Sep 10 2021 A mid/upper ridge over the Southern Rockies will dominate the weather over the region through the weekend and into the upcoming week resulting in above normal temperatures and dry weather conditions.
253 PM EDT Fri Sep 10 2021 As noted earlier, a narrow layer of instability on the perfiphery of a low level ridge has allowed for shallow diurnal cumulus to develop across most of central Indiana. With the low level ridge still positioned to the SW, and cold air aloft, temperatures have remained seasonal. The overall synoptic pattern will shift overnight as the low level ridge moves over the SE CONUS. Strong WAA on the western edge of this ridge will increase heights dramatically aloft, leading to much warmer temperatures in the mid to upper levels.
Hurricane Larry will continue its trek northeastward in the North Atlantic this weekend, which will allow a sharp ridge to build across the western Atlantic, with the axis slicing through the Southeast.
1258 PM PDT Fri Sep 10 2021 Expect a trough of low pressure to move into Central California by this evening. Cooler afternoon highs are expected over the weekend due to the trough. An upper-level low pressure system is currently along the coast of Northern California/southern Oregon, per latest satellite images. Storm coverage will likely be significantly less than last night's and confined over the higher terrain. In the meantime, not so hot temperatures are in store for later today and again Saturday due to the influence of the low pressure system.
After a cool start this morning, we're headed back to summery heat today as mid level warm air advection and strong upper ridging build into the Central U. Given the favorable conditions and recent biases, will continue to trend temperatures warmer, toward the 75th percentile of NBM guidance. On Saturday, a weaker NE-SW oriented cold front tracks through the region, likely setting up south of the I-90 corridor by mid afternoon. With the low level jet pooling moisture ahead of the front, it will be a hot day south of I-90 with dew points in the 60s and temperatures peaking in the 90s. Further north behind the front, it'll be a bit cooler and drier with highs in the 80s and a northeast breeze.
Midday RAP analysis depicts a 597dm ridge centered over northern New Mexico.
114 PM EDT Fri Sep 10 2021 High pressure will provide mostly dry weather through the weekend with a warming trend.
121 PM EDT Fri Sep 10 2021 High pressure and drier air will spread across the region through the weekend. Pressure ridge to the northwest building into the area. Although ridge axis sets up to our northwest overnight, appears strong radiational cooling likely. High pressure is firmly in control of the region this weekend leading to superb weather conditions.
138 PM EDT Fri Sep 10 2021 Dry high pressure will promote fair weather today and tonight.
Bottom line, some of the coolest lows will still be in the low 50s, while areas I-65 and west could only end up around the 60 degree mark. However, given the warm advection component and some mid to late afternoon clearing, think we'll still end up with values in the low to mid 80s in most spots.
The tranquil weather will then persist into Saturday and Saturday night as an upper level ridge remains in control of the weather.
/19/ High pressure aloft will continue to slowly build east into the region today, as high pressure at the surface remains wedged into the forecast area from the northeast. High pressure is building into the Mississippi River Valley on the surface map, keeping the forecast dry, and winds lighter today with the ridge axis positioned over the region. Tonight, another cool night anticipated with radiational cooling primed under clear skies with little to no wind under the ridge. Saturday: The pleasant and dry conditions we're currently enjoying will continue into Saturday as broad surface ridging continues to hold sway. Mornings will remain cooler while daytime conditions will still be seasonably warm.
/Issued 1025 AM CDT Fri Sep 10 2021/ 850mb temps per area raobs warmer than yesterdays 12z observations, and forecasted afternoon temps are reflective of that. Hot temperatures will continue through the weekend with the upper ridge staying in control. ridge expands east over the next couple of days.
High pressure will bring clear skies and light winds through the next 24 hours.
1025 AM CDT Fri Sep 10 2021 850mb temps per area raobs warmer than yesterdays 12z observations, and forecasted afternoon temps are reflective of that. Hot temperatures will continue through the weekend with the upper ridge staying in control. ridge expands east over the next couple of days.
215 PM CDT Fri Sep 10 2021 A warmer, more summer-like day to kick off the weekend Saturday with a west/southwest push of warm air ahead of approaching cold front to the northwest. The cold front looks to drop through in the late afternoon, early evening hours. Not expecting much/any convection to spark along the boundary during the day, but some chances in the evening as the low level jet ramps up.
Warmer temperatures tonight under the thermal ridge axis should prevent fog development, even in the typically favored areas. A trough across south central Canada will continue eastward through Saturday. It will drag a cold front southward through the area by early Saturday afternoon. Thermal ridging will shift south before peak heating, keeping the 90+ degree highs across Iowa, Nebraska, into southern Wisconsin. It will still be warmer than normal locally, despite the frontal passage with highs generally in the low 80s. While the boundary layer is quite dry and stable behind the surface cold front, there still may be sufficient moisture aloft to allow for elevated CAPE.
144 PM MDT Fri Sep 10 2021 Water vapor shows upper ridge axis over the Northern Rockies/Northern Plains, with upper trof over the Pac NW. At the surface, weak trof is over the western Dakotas with cold front pushing south across MT. Dry cold front will drop through the area tonight through Saturday morning, with upper trof shifting slowly into the Northern Rockies. Warm temps expected Saturday, with some 90s possible south/southeast of the Black Hills given slightly later arrival of cold front. Could see a few late day storms, especially in the Black Hills and areas to the south/southeast, with better chance Saturday night further east on the plains as upper trof crosses the Dakotas.
317 PM EDT Fri Sep 10 2021 High pressure expected through Saturday with dry conditions and mostly clear skies.
311 PM EDT Fri Sep 10 2021 Low amplitude ridging takes hold over the region today shunting the thermal trough towards the Northeast. As this occurs, southwest flow develops in the low levels advecting warmer air from the Plains into lower MI. Either way, highs will be able to easily get into the low to mid 80s. Unfortunately this airmass also brings with it increased moisture as dewpoints climb back into the low to mid 60s making it feel a bit more humid. Rain chances increase Saturday night as the attendant cold front drops into the central Great Lakes.
145 PM EDT Fri Sep 10 2021 The pattern aloft features troughing extending south over northern Florida with ridging over the Atlantic building westward over the southern half of the peninsula.
Outdoor conditions will be quite enjoyable today and tomorrow as a deep-layer ridge continues to build eastward from the Southwest region. The low moisture content and stable conditions will support sunny skies with low humidity. Tomorrow morning will be crisp and cool, but heights will rise during the day as the ridge progresses towards the Central Plains, and afternoon temperature readings will be a few degrees warmer with upper 80s in the south. Dewpoints will also rise slightly as surface winds become southeasterly while the surface portion of the ridge shifts east over the Mid-Atlantic coast.
Cold front moving through the region with most shower and thunderstorm activity east of Highway 95 through 6-7 PM or so. For the weekend, flat high pressure will try to build over the region.
945 AM MDT Fri Sep 10 2021 Temperatures continue to warm today as the high pressure center encroaches on Colorado. As of 9 AM MDT, most Denver metro sites were running 2 to 7 degrees warmer than this time yesterday, with more pronounced warming due east. It could be slightly warmer.
218 PM EDT Fri Sep 10 2021 High pressure and drier air will spread across the region through the weekend with dry and seasonable temperatures expected through the weekend. Pressure ridge to the northwest building into the area. Although ridge axis sets up to our northwest overnight, appears strong radiational cooling likely. Ridge of high pressure will be centered to the north of the area Saturday, shifting slowly eastward. Upper ridging will begin to build with rising 500mb heights. Another night of mostly favorable radiational cooling, although a weak low level jet early will lead to lows a bit warmer but still mostly in the low 60s.
We've had a few showers offshore today as an inverted trough draped just east of the TX coast today moves west across the CWA but have kept silent PoP's inland due to extremely dry profile. Tomorrow will be a few degrees cooler and heat indices are expected to generally remain below 100.
1252 PM CDT Fri Sep 10 2021 (Today and tonight) Strengthening westerlies across the northern and central Rockies today will help strengthen lee troughing and result in increasing south winds across much of Oklahoma and western north Texas. Combined with delayed moisture return (lower level ridge persisting across the gulf coast) and increasing temperatures (upper high shifts eastward closer to the region) fire weather will be the main concern. Flow around upper ridge will continue to bring elevated smoke across the region.
1221 PM EDT Fri Sep 10 2021 Cooler and drier air will filter into the area over the weekend.
119 PM EDT Fri Sep 10 2021 A high pressure system will result in dry weather with warmer temperatures each day through the weekend and into the next work week. High pressure will slowly push east through the period. The combination of light winds, a dry airmass and few clouds should allow temperatures to once again fall to the low to mid 50s across the lowlands with 40s across the higher elevations. Abundant sunshine and southerly winds should result in daytime temperatures warming in the low 80s across the lowlands with 70s and even some mid 60s across the higher elevations. A high pressure system will slowly slide eastward across the area over the weekend and into the next work week.
330 PM CDT Fri Sep 10 2021 Summary: A cold front will be entering the Northland tonight and brings the chance for some light showers across the Borderlands. As the cold front moves through the region on Saturday winds will turn to out of the northwest with highs in the upper 60s across northern MN and upper 70s for our southwest. High pressure was observed sliding off to the east this morning as southerly winds filter in across the region on its backside. Overnight, a cold front enters from the northwest and could produce some light showers across the International Border. Cooler temps will be expected across the north with highs in the upper 60s while our southwest counties will still manage to reach the upper 70s.
Otherwise, the trend of continued dry, but cooler conditions, remains likely through the forecast. Cliff PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: Warm, dry, and breezy conditions are expected today as the next upper trough approaches the region from the west. Chances for showers will increase tonight as the trough tracks east over the region, with perhaps an isolated thunderstorm on Saturday.
These light winds and minimal mixing has kept temperatures somewhat in-check despite a large upper level ridge continuing to push into the area. On Saturday, we will see stronger southerly to southwesterly winds develop in the afternoon ahead of an approaching cold front. Dry and cooler conditions are expected for most of the area in the post-frontal airmass.
Warmer than average temperatures continue with breezy afternoon south to southwest winds.
1250 PM EDT Fri Sep 10 2021 A high pressure system will provide dry weather with a warming trend through the weekend and into the next work week. A quiet day is then expected as high pressure takes control over the area. Dry air accompanying the high pressure will keep humidity levels low, and temperatures are expected to remain cooler than normal for this time of year. Daytime highs will be in the mid to upper 70s in the lowlands and upper 50s to low 70s in the mountains. Tonight, temperatures are expected to lower in the the 50s for the lowlands and mid to upper 40s in the mountains. A high pressure system will slowly slide eastward across the area over the weekend and into the next work week.
Temperatures have warmed into the upper 70s to low 80s this afternoon and will continue to climb into the low to mid 80s for highs. Overnight lows will be a bit warmer tonight with increasing upper level heights and a return of weak southerly flow in the low-levels. Southerly flow in the low-levels will nudge moisture upward throughout the period.
An H5 trough over the Mid-Atlantic region will gradually propagate eastward through the day. Plentiful sunshine will allow high temperatures to reach the lower to middle 80s. Westerlies settle into the Great Lakes this weekend with mid level ridge centered over the Tennessee Valley.
Although most of the low-level jet weakens by Saturday afternoon, could still mix higher into an 850 mb jet maxima across far northwest Oklahoma resulting in 35-40 mph gusts there. Other than potential fire danger across our west, expect Saturday afternoons warmer than seasonably average temperatures to remain double digit (mid to upper 90s) across central and southeast Oklahoma, while mid 50s dew points should keep any heat index negligible.
In turn, temperatures and dewpoints will climb a few degrees to make Saturday only slightly warmer.
632 PM EDT Fri Sep 10 2021 Dry high pressure will promote fair weather today and tonight.
913 PM CDT Fri Sep 10 2021 Tranquil conditions across the Tennessee Valley, with high pressure in control of the weather. Southerly flow in the low-levels will nudge moisture upward throughout the period.
642 PM EDT Fri Sep 10 2021 High pressure will provide mostly dry weather through the weekend with a warming trend.
658 PM CDT Fri Sep 10 2021 Summary: A cold front will be entering the Northland tonight and brings the chance for some light showers across the Borderlands. As the cold front moves through the region on Saturday winds will turn to out of the northwest with highs in the upper 60s across northern MN and upper 70s for our southwest. High pressure was observed sliding off to the east this morning as southerly winds filter in across the region on its backside. Overnight, a cold front enters from the northwest and could produce some light showers across the International Border. Cooler temps will be expected across the north with highs in the upper 60s while our southwest counties will still manage to reach the upper 70s.
543 PM EDT Fri Sep 10 2021 High pressure will provide mostly dry weather through the weekend with a warming trend.
927 PM EDT Fri Sep 10 2021 Current satellite shows mainly clear skies across southern Indiana and central Kentucky while KY Mesonet observations show temperatures in the low to mid 60s. Bottom line, some of the coolest lows will still be in the low 50s, while areas I-65 and west could only end up around the 60 degree mark. However, given the warm advection component and some mid to late afternoon clearing, think we'll still end up with values in the low to mid 80s in most spots.