Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
218 PM MDT Sun Jun 7 2020 A upper trough remains over the western CONUS early this afternoon, with increasing diffluent flow aloft and potent jet energy spreading east into WY and western CO. Scattered convection, some of it strong, will continue to develop ahead of an eastward moving cold front this afternoon. Showers will taper off this evening, but redevelop Monday afternoon in advance of a upper level trough. Monday will be 10 to 15 degrees cooler with highs in the 60s and 70s. Showers will become more widespread Monday night as the trough moves through the CWA.
252 PM MDT Sun Jun 7 2020 With the Tri-State area situated beneath a tightening height gradient between a deep upper level trough over the Western CONUS and a deep upper level ridge over the MS River Valley -- active/ dynamic weather will persist.
Ridging aloft in between strong western CONUS trough and T. If anything, model data has trended slightly farther east with the low track and as such, will not make changes to Flash Flood Watch configuration at this time.
High pressure centered over the Atlantic will continue to ridge across the area through mid-week, with SE/S flow and afternoon sea breezes returning. A weak front then settles into north FL and dissipates for the end of the week and into the weekend, with an upper trough remaining over the eastern US through the weekend.
A weak surface boundary (cold front) continues to slide southeast across the TN Valley and Southern Appalachians this afternoon, all while mid/high cirrus advects northward from TC Cristobal into the southern Valley/Plateau/Mountains. There will not be a great deal of weather to disrupt flight operations during the period with limited moisture in the low levels and a few ac and ci showing up as the period progresses due to easterly flow off the Atlantic building into the tropical circulation of Cristobal. Chattanooga Airport, TN 92 72 89 72 88 / 0 10 20 20 50 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 92 68 89 71 89 / 0 0 10 10 30 Oak Ridge, TN 92 67 90 71 88 / 10 0 10 10 30 Tri Cities Airport, TN 87 61 91 66 89 / 10 0 10 10 30.
329 PM EDT Sun Jun 7 2020 High pressure will extend into the area through Monday.
305 PM EDT Sun Jun 7 2020 Clearing and cool tonight as a ridge of high pressure noses into the area.
1151 AM MDT Sun Jun 7 2020 Deep upper trough was situated over the western CONUS with a upper low center over OR. It will be a warm afternoon across the high plains with afternoon temperatures in the 80s to lower 90s. Inverted-v profiles would suggest damaging wind gusts as the main hazard once again, but the likelihood of significant gusts is much lower as forecast sounding data suggests more veering in the lower levels, versus the largely uni-directional profiles we had yesterday. A significant cold frontal passage on Sunday night will contribute to abruptly cooler temperatures across the area for Monday.
GAH MORNING DISCUSSION: A low pressure system moved through the area yesterday bringing wet weather along the warm front with overcast skies that kept the temperatures from reaching as high as originally expected. This system brought a juicy wrap around rain band with some lightning along the edge of a cold front through the area last night. Additional moisture is expected with the later system, with the highest QPF to the north and west. Temperatures will be noticeably cooler on Monday with highs in the upper 50s to mid 60s.
Generally this will be above 6000 feet with the highest accumulations of over 6 inches above 8000 feet. Temperatures will be cooler than normal for the whole area.
Upstream coverage over S FL continues on the lower side, so the main areas of interest for the rest of the afternoon will likely reside along the east coast where a developing sea breeze boundary could help promote new development into the early evening. The Highest coverage (numerous/60 pct) will be over the interior, and slightly lower (scattered/40-50) near the coast.
This dry air will continue to move into the forecast area late this evening as the main axis of an upper-level ridge continues to build over Wisconsin. The upper-level ridge will continue to dominate over the region only slightly shifting east by Monday afternoon. At the surface, a warm front will quickly lift north over the forecast area bringing a much warmer airmass to the state. In addition to the warmer air, surface winds will increase from the south with gusts up to 25 mph possible. No precipitation is expected with this warm front as moisture will be in short supply.
The upper level low that has brought active weather to the area the past few days is currently centered over eastern Oregon.
An amplified upper-level ridge axis continues to move east across the Mississippi River Valley while a deepening western trough slides east across the western US.
1049 PM EDT Sun Jun 7 2020 A warm and muggy evening is underway across the Florida Keys with temperatures holding in the lower to mid 80s with dew points near 80(!) degrees. The only concern is that this moistening of the dry layer could allow any convective initiation in the low-levels to have an easier time becoming fully developed. Meanwhile, an Atlantic ridge axis will build back across Florida, allowing breezes to diminish further on Monday.
1044 PM EDT Sun Jun 7 2020 A ridge of high pressure will crest over the state Monday, then take a position off the East Coast for mid-week.
The dry and cool air associated with this pattern will bring pockets of freezing temperatures to the high country tonight and again Monday night. Freezing temperatures will be possible in portions of the high country so be sure to protect any sensitive vegetation. The strongest winds will shift east on Monday as a dry cold front crosses through the region.
Warm and humid though with lows in the low to mid 70s. The Highest coverage (numerous/60 pct) will be over the interior, and slightly lower (scattered/40-50) near the coast.
Main concern in the near term is the potential for strong to severe thunderstorms late this afternoon and this evening as a cold front tracks across the area and encounter extreme instability. The biggest question right now is whether these storms will take more of a northeast track as shown in the HRRR and the ARW, or if they line out and more more easterly as shown by the high resolution NAM and the NMM. By Monday night however, an upper trough will approach the region and will begin to meet up with the remnants of Tropical Storm Cristobal, and the stalled front looks to then become the focus for rainfall. Low temperatures tonight will range from the upper 50s northwest to the lower 70s east, with highs on Monday ranging from the mid 70s northwest to the lower 90s east.
1005 PM EDT Sun Jun 7 2020 High pressure brings fair and drier weather through Monday.
The highest gusts and heaviest rainfall expected to occur along the Mississippi coast. Conditions will slowly improve as Cristobal is expected to move inland around and to the west of a strong upper level ridge over the next 48 hours.
547 PM MDT Sun Jun 7 2020 With the Tri-State area situated beneath a tightening height gradient between a deep upper level trough over the Western CONUS and a deep upper level ridge over the MS River Valley -- active/ dynamic weather will persist.
710 PM CDT Sun Jun 7 2020 Warm front has remained this evenig from the Cavalier ND area to near Thief River Falls then toward Park Rapids. Storms when reaching this warm front encountering better dynamics to become severe.
933 PM EDT Sun Jun 7 2020 High pressure will extend into the area through Monday.
1013 PM EDT Sun Jun 7 2020 Clearing and cool tonight as a ridge of high pressure noses into the area.
457 PM MDT Sun Jun 7 2020 Upper trough remains to the west this afternoon producing fast southwesterly flow over the forecast area. A jet streak has rounded the base of the trough and is headed toward the forecast area from the southwest. Any storms that do develop over the higher terrain and move into northeastern Wyoming will likely produce strong to severe gusts due to the relatively fast low and mid-level flow over the area. The upper trough will remain to the west on Monday. Any precip would then spread eastward Monday night as the upper trough shifts eastward. Mainly dry weather is then expected through the rest of the week with warming temperatures as an upper ridge builds over the area.
728 PM EDT Sun Jun 7 2020 Clearing and cool tonight as a ridge of high pressure noses into the area.
713 PM EDT Sun Jun 7 2020 Ridge of high pressure continues to build in across Michigan which will maintain VFR conditions through the night. Residual dry air mass and reinforced ridge of high pressure to again bring ideal conditions through Monday afternoon, where cloud production will be difficult to come by. Some scattered cirrus debris is making its way to southern MI around the ridge from convection currently over the U. Early week warming trend will kick in tonight as a 590dam ridge begins to slide east into the Great Lakes.
744 PM EDT Sun Jun 7 2020 High pressure will extend into the area through Monday.
649 PM EDT Sun Jun 7 2020 High pressure brings fair and drier weather through Monday.
Return flow will continue until late morning Mon, after which sfc winds will veer to the west in response to leeside troughing. Increasing mid-level dryness and the expansion of the low- level thermal ridge will promote sfc temperatures in the 100-105F range for most locations with the hottest temperatures between 107- 115F along the Pecos and Rio Grande valleys.
The chance for showers and thunderstorms will continue for much of the week as another weakening cold front moves into the area. Lows tonight will generally be in the low 70s. Low level onshore flow will increase early this week with high pressure aloft overhead.
Mostly clear skies will then prevail overnight, but a weak cold front will push into northeast Colorado late. On Monday, anticyclonic upslope flow behind the front will dominate the low level flow pattern over the plains. Temperatures will be about 15 degrees cooler over most of the plains behind tonight's cold front.
As the upper trough continues to move east, the unstable air mass will shift east out of the area later this evening. With the clearing east of the Cascades in the remaining cold air mass temperates are expected to fall below freezing in the valleys east of the Cascades, with frost in portions of the Shasta valley, the Scott valley and some portions of the Klamath River valley tonight.
537 PM MDT Sun Jun 7 2020 A upper trough remains over the western CONUS early this afternoon, with increasing diffluent flow aloft and potent jet energy spreading east into WY and western CO. Scattered convection, some of it strong, will continue to develop ahead of an eastward moving cold front this afternoon. Showers will taper off this evening, but redevelop Monday afternoon in advance of a upper level trough. Monday will be 10 to 15 degrees cooler with highs in the 60s and 70s. Showers will become more widespread Monday night as the trough moves through the CWA.
As of mid-afternoon, an upper level ridge axis stretches from the western Great Lakes southward through IL, while a pronounced upper trough exists over the western CONUS. Quiet and relatively warm conditions can be expected through the evening and overnight with the area remaining positioned between the ridge to the east and trough to the west. Tomorrow, TD Cristobal will progress north through LA and AR while the western upper trough approaches the central High Plains. Forecast high temps are in the low 90s tomorrow afternoon with heat index values in the mid to upper 90s given the continued moist low level airmass.
Showers will continue tonight, clearing Oregon and moving over SW Idaho Monday morning as the upper low tracks east.
1041 PM EDT Sun Jun 7 2020 A ridge of high pressure will crest over the state Monday, then take a position off the East Coast for mid-week.
Warmer and drier conditions will return over the next few days. Showers have steadily diminished in coverage across northwest California through this afternoon, and this trend will continue into the evening as a cold upper trough departs into the Great Basin.
235 AM EDT Mon Jun 8 2020 A ridge of high pressure will crest over the state Monday, then take a position off the East Coast for mid-week.
354 AM CDT Mon Jun 8 2020 One more hot day, similar to yesterday, with highs in the lower to middle 90s and strong southerly winds at 20 to 40 mph. There is a cold front across the western part of NE, and this will get pushed eastward toward our area today, but should remain just west of the of our counties in northeast NE through 00Z. Weather trends Tuesday are challenging as various models handle the deepening trough crossing the Rockies slightly differently. the cold front moves into northeast NE, significantly increasing precipitation chances in that area, with strong northwesterly winds developing. Temperatures are also a challenge Tuesday, with highs in northeast NE only in the upper 60s, but highs in the Missouri River valley in the lower 80s.
1100 PM MDT Sun Jun 7 2020 Upper trough remains to the west this afternoon producing fast southwesterly flow over the forecast area. A jet streak has rounded the base of the trough and is headed toward the forecast area from the southwest. Any storms that do develop over the higher terrain and move into northeastern Wyoming will likely produce strong to severe gusts due to the relatively fast low and mid-level flow over the area. The upper trough will remain to the west on Monday. Any precip would then spread eastward Monday night as the upper trough shifts eastward. Mainly dry weather is then expected through the rest of the week with warming temperatures as an upper ridge builds over the area.
Gusty north winds will continue through early this morning behind a cold front before gradually easing through the day. After today, calmer winds are expected with a warming trend as high pressure builds across the region.
428 AM EDT Mon Jun 8 2020 Tropical Storm Cristobal will move north through the Mississippi Valley today and tonight ahead of a large low pressure system moving east from the Plains.
For Monday, the lee troughing will continue to prevail. A cold front will eventually traverse southward. A strong negatively tilted synoptic trof will dive out of the Northern Rockies and across the Central Plains. Highs will be about 25 degrees cooler on Tuesday versus Monday highs. Winds will gust up to 30-35kts overnight due to a deep leeside trough over eastern Colorado giving way to a tight pressure gradient across the CWA.
An anomalous upper low featuring -30C temperatures at h500mb has moved into the Pacific Northwest. The upper low will move east tonight and drive a Pacific cold front into cntl Nebraska Monday afternoon. The front and the upper low will be the basis for a combined severe weather/flood threat late Monday afternoon through Tuesday morning affecting the eastern Sandhills, southwest and ncntl Nebraska. The location of the front, which could be as far east as Norfolk to McCook or as far west as Imperial to O'Neill, will dictate the location of the tornado threats and there is about a 50 or 70 mile spread in the models east and west with the location of the highest rainfall amounts. An upper level trof will move across wrn and ncntl Nebraska Tuesday.
As of mid-afternoon, an upper level ridge axis stretches from the western Great Lakes southward through IL, while a pronounced upper trough exists over the western CONUS. Quiet and relatively warm conditions can be expected through the evening and overnight with the area remaining positioned between the ridge to the east and trough to the west. Tomorrow, TD Cristobal will progress north through LA and AR while the western upper trough approaches the central High Plains. Forecast high temps are in the low 90s tomorrow afternoon with heat index values in the mid to upper 90s given the continued moist low level airmass. The GFS is the outlier, phasing the low with Cristobal remnants farther northeast. Sfc winds would be backed ahead of the low, allowing for ample amounts shear.
With the slightly breezy southerly winds and residual swells coming onshore from Cristobal, a high risk of rip currents remains in effect until 8 PM for area beaches, and the high surf advisory is still in effect through 2 PM.
Deep layer shear will increase slightly as well, especially in the low levels. A brief break in the rain chances will move in Tuesday evening before a strong Plains trough will move in the wake of Cristobal and drag a cold front towards the mid state.
131 AM EDT Mon Jun 8 2020 High pressure will extend into the area through Monday. It will become breezy Tuesday as low pressure moves through the western Great Lakes.
The 00z NAM is similar to 24 hours ago, in showing a slower/more southern track of the low, which leans closer to the latest ECMWF. Elevated moisture transport late tonight into Tuesday morning may support widely scattered convection across central Kansas and a portion of the Flint Hills, ahead of the approaching upper trof. However, somewhat better, albeit modest chances, are more probable behind the front within the moist/cold advection regime under the upper trof, mostly affecting central Kansas into Tuesday evening.
Confidence in exactly where that occurs is low at this time, but models generally agree the heaviest rain will occur on the NW side of the low track, which right now favors the Highway 65 corridor for these potentially greater amounts. After all that occurs, the rest of the forecast period looks quiet and cooler. Lowering VFR ceilings will occur with the approach of low pressure (Cristobal). KJLN might be spared some or all the rain, while KBBG and KSGF will have better chances closer to the low track where ceilings are expected to lower into the MVFR and IFR categories. East winds will increase as the low moves into north central AR by late in the period.
High pressure will begin to rebuild early in the work week while onshore flow decreases. Another trough arriving late in the week will push temperatures back below normal.
Otherwise the forecast appears on track as high clouds on the outskirts of Cristobal spread across the region, and high pressure to the north extends across the TN Valley. LW Chattanooga Airport, TN 89 74 89 73 87 / 20 30 60 50 70 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 92 72 91 73 88 / 10 10 40 40 60 Oak Ridge, TN 92 72 90 73 86 / 10 10 40 40 60 Tri Cities Airport, TN 90 67 89 69 86 / 10 10 40 30 70.
441 AM EDT Mon Jun 8 2020 Tropical Depression Cristobal will move north through the Mississippi Valley today and tonight ahead of a large low pressure system moving east from the Plains.
129 AM EDT Mon Jun 8 2020 Clearing and cool tonight as a ridge of high pressure noses into the area.
1202 AM EDT Mon Jun 8 2020 High pressure provides dry weather and a warming trend through Tuesday, when temperatures may reach or top 90 degrees for many areas.
115 AM EDT Mon Jun 8 2020 A ridge of high pressure will crest over the state Monday, then take a position off the East Coast for mid-week.
With the Tri-State area situated beneath a tightening height gradient between a deep upper level trough over the Western CONUS and a deep upper level ridge over the MS River Valley -- active/ dynamic weather will persist. Primary forecast concerns will center around strong short wave trough that will move into the region on Monday night and slowly work its way across Kansas on Tuesday. Overnight as system approaches the area, expect second round of thunderstorms to develop to the north of the cold front in area of large scale ascent. Otherwise as system slowly moves across the area expect storms to gradually transition to rain showers and much cooler air to work into region. While thunderstorms will diminish, strong northerly winds will accompany the passage of this trough.
442 AM EDT Mon Jun 8 2020 Currently - A surface Atlantic ridge extends westward across Florida and the Florida Straits and continues westward into the Bay of Campeche. Lower level ridging is centered nearby over the Bahamas. There is some drier layers through the lower levels. Meanwhile, the lower level ridges will also work their way westward as Cristobal slips northward. Despite ample CAPE, the background ridging and relatively weak flow will keep rain chances slight at best.
259 AM MDT Mon Jun 8 2020 WV imagery tonight depicts a jet streak lifting through the Dakotas along the ern periphery of a broad wrn trof. Cooler sfc temps with little change in midlevel temps will make it difficult for us to generate any SB/MLCAPE across most zones. Possible exceptions would be portions of nern WY/far wrn SD as cooler midlevel temps arrive by mid-late aftn or over far s cntrl SD in the vicinity of the fnt, where persistent convergence could allow the cap to break. Atop the cooler, post-frontal boundary layer, moistening low-to- mid levels and cooling midlevel temps should contribute to the development of appreciable MUCAPE across much of s cntrl/potentially swrn SD through the evening and into the overnight.
1214 AM EDT Mon Jun 8 2020 Canadian high pressure builds across the area through Tuesday.
Cristobal is expected to be well inland, over the Arkansas/Missouri area, this evening and become absorbed into an upper trof advancing eastward across the Plains. Drier air will begin slowly filtering into the area in its wake so rainfall intensity/totals should decrease although PoPs will remain relatively high as the region's weather will be influenced by an upper level trough approaching the area and afternoon instability on Tuesday. High today will be in the low to mid 80s with mid and upper 80s on Tuesday. Lows will be in the low 70s inland to mid and upper 70s along the coast.
155 AM MDT Mon Jun 8 2020 With the Tri-State area situated beneath a tightening height gradient between a deep upper level trough over the Western CONUS and a deep upper level ridge over the MS River Valley -- active/ dynamic weather will persist. At the start of the period, an upper closed low travels east across the Great Lakes with ridging building behind. The upper ridge amplifies and pushes from the Rockies to the Plains at the end of the work week as another trough deepens along the west coast. Ridging progresses east of the region during the weekend, with the west coast trough coming ashore towards the Pacific Northwest.
SHORT TERM (Today through Tuesday): 500mb ridge across north- central Mexico and Cristobal across southeast Louisiana moving northward today will continue to provide subsidence across southwest Texas into deep South Texas today. A 500mb trough across the western United States today will move eastward into the central plains Tuesday. This will allow a weak cold front to move into South Texas Tues afternoon. Minor coastal flooding is expected again along the lower Texas coast this morning as water levels rise to 1 to 1.
Highs in the upper 80s to low 90s are expected with heat indices in the low to upper 90s. However, heat indices should still be in the low 90s for our western counties, so you'll still want to take it easy outside. An upper level trough and cold front will start moving into our area Tuesday afternoon, bringing us storms.
1231 AM MDT Mon Jun 8 2020 A upper trough remains over the western CONUS early this afternoon, with increasing diffluent flow aloft and potent jet energy spreading east into WY and western CO. Scattered convection, some of it strong, will continue to develop ahead of an eastward moving cold front this afternoon. Showers will taper off this evening, but redevelop Monday afternoon in advance of a upper level trough. Monday will be 10 to 15 degrees cooler with highs in the 60s and 70s. Showers will become more widespread Monday night as the trough moves through the CWA. Temperatures will fall into the lower and mid 30s along and west of I-25 by Tuesday morning. Ridging aloft returns for Wed-Fri per the GFS and ECMWF, giving way to generally warmer & drier conditions heading later in the week.
106 AM EDT Mon Jun 8 2020 High pressure brings fair and drier weather through Monday.
301 AM EDT Mon Jun 8 2020 A cold front across our area will stall today before slowly dissipating into Tuesday.