Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
This trough has been quite effective into pushing a frontal boundary into the Texas Panhandle.
then lift north of the region as a warm front early Saturday.
331 PM EDT Fri Sep 9 2016 High pressure will prevail through the weekend.
The center of a weak upper high pressure area over the southeast states will shift south over the northeast Gulf of Mexico as an inverted upper trough over the western Gulf of Mexico lifts north over east Texas.
659 PM EDT FRI SEP 9 2016 High pressure will cross the region overnight then move east Saturday.
307 PM MDT FRI SEP 9 2016 Cold front has pushed through the CWA with north to northeast winds gusting to 20-30 kts across the plains. Scattered to broken layer of low clouds will begin to clear after 00z behind the upper trough axis.
High pressure aloft over the region will continue to weaken.
453 PM EDT Fri Sep 9 2016 Warm and humid conditions will continue until a strong cold front crosses the area Saturday night.
238 PM EDT FRI SEP 9 2016 Surface and upper ridging will maintain dry conditions in the forecast area through Saturday.
156 PM EDT FRI SEP 9 2016 High pressure will crest over the area tonight then move east on Saturday.
653 PM EDT Fri Sep 9 2016 High pressure will prevail through the weekend.
Latest water vapor imagery shows a mid/upper level trough shifting through central ND. Surface cold front now through the James River Valley, with some clearing noted on the backside of the trough across northern ND. Steep low level lapse rates into the cooler/moist air through 850mb and most unstable cape around 500 j/kg mainly encompassing south central ND will result in popcorn type showers and isolated thunderstorms into the evening. For Saturday, expect a dry day with broad mid/upper level ridging transitioning to a zonal flow late in the day. High temperatures will reach into the lower 70s most areas with the exception of the Turtle Mountains where upper 60s will prevail.
350 PM CDT FRI SEP 9 2016 An upper level trough is currently moving across the plains this afternoon. A cold front is located across central Iowa across western Nebraska into southwestern Kansas this afternoon. As the trough continues to dive south the front will continue to move to the southeast towards the area later this evening then through the area tonight into early Saturday morning. As the cold front starts to move into the area storms will develop across eastern Kansas and northern Missouri and spread east and southeast into the area. Deep layer shear will increase across the region with the approach of the upper level trough. Showers and a few storms will likely linger for a few hours behind the front as the 850mb front and upper level trough lag the surface front some overnight.
446 PM MDT FRI SEP 9 2016 An upper trough and weak surface cold front will pass through the area tonight. The flow aloft will stay northwesterly through Saturday night, but the upper ridge with rest over the Big Bend area. A combination of return flow behind the front and circulation around the high center will begin drawing moisture north over AZ toward the area Saturday night.
305 PM CDT FRI SEP 9 2016 H5 hand analysis this morning had a long wave trough of low pressure across the central and western CONUS with numerous embedded waves within this trough. In advance of this trough, 50 meter ht falls were noted at Riverton WY this morning. At the surface: A cold front has passed through the entire forecast area as of midday. Some light showers were associated with this area of cloud cover, mainly over the Pine Ridge of northern Sheridan County. The area of high pressure will build south across the high plains into western Kansas on Saturday allowing northerly winds to eventually switch back to southerly.
Saturday, weak upper-level ridging will keep precipitation away from the region and allow warmer temperatures from the south to creep back into the area, making for a very comfortable early fall season Saturday across northeast Montana.
354 PM EDT FRI SEP 9 2016 Showers and thunderstorms are expected tonight ahead of a warm front. A cold front will sweep across the area on Saturday with additional chances for showers and thunderstorms. The first is the effective surface warm front located from northeast of St Louis to across the Ohio River. Everything may exit the area after 6z with potential for a lull until the cold front approaches from the NW Saturday.
456 PM MDT FRI SEP 9 2016 Upper trof crossing the Dakotas this afternoon, with scattered shra/tsra. Convection will end early this evening as trof pulls east. High pressure located across across the overnight with clearing skies and light winds. May be some patchy frost late tonight in the Black Hills and around Pine Ridge. Dry and warmer for Saturday.
659 PM EDT Fri Sep 9 2016 A warm front will track north across the area tonight and Saturday morning accompanied by scattered showers with isolated thunder possible. A cold front will approach the area from the west late Saturday, probably bringing a round of showers and thunderstorms to the area late Saturday and Saturday night.
330 PM CDT FRI SEP 9 2016 Afternoon WV imagery shows the upper level low that was located over the central Gulf of Mexico yesterday moving over the south- central TX coast. Several areas of convection have developed this afternoon in vicinity of the upper low.
211 PM CDT Fri Sep 9 2016 Latest water vapor imagery shows a mid/upper level trough shifting through central ND. Surface cold front now through the James River Valley, with some clearing noted on the backside of the trough across northern ND. Steep low level lapse rates into the cooler/moist air through 850mb and most unstable cape around 500 j/kg mainly encompassing south central ND will result in popcorn type showers and isolated thunderstorms into the evening. For Saturday, expect a dry day with broad mid/upper level ridging transitioning to a zonal flow late in the day. High temperatures will reach into the lower 70s most areas with the exception of the Turtle Mountains where upper 60s will prevail.
Currently, under a mostly cloudy sky and some low level cold air advection, temperatures are slow to warm through the 60s into the low 70s on northwest winds. Saturday: high pressure will be over the region.
243 PM EDT Fri Sep 9 2016 Warm and humid conditions will continue until a strong cold front crosses the area Saturday night.
351 PM EDT FRI SEP 9 2016 Surface and upper ridging will maintain dry conditions in the forecast area through Saturday.
The trailing cold front is passing trough western Kansas this afternoon and will be well to the south by late tonight.
At the surface a trough of low pressure stretched from eastern Hudson Bay southwestward across northern Ontario and into Minnesota. Height falls and DCVA ahead of the approaching trough resulted in widespread forcing for ascent across the Upper Midwest and western Great Lakes. Winds will turn northwesterly behind the boundary and temperatures will trend cooler tonight and Saturday.
Current thinking is storms should increase near or just ahead of the cold front across northwest and north central Oklahoma by late afternoon and expand in coverage as the cold front advances southward. CAMs show isolated/scattered storms developing late this afternoon in western portions of the fa near a pre-frontal trough and with sfc heating. Models continue to show the cold front moving into NW OK early/mid evening then continue to move across the area tonight. Showers/storms will remain possible with the front and is expected to eventually overtake any activity on the pre-frontal trough. After one more day where the heat index reaches toward 100, a cold front is expected to sweep through Oklahoma tonight. A fast-moving mid-level trough will move to the north of Oklahoma associated with the front which is expected to enter northern Oklahoma a bit before sunset.
Upstream energy supports a cool canadian high pressure as strong as forecasted and possibly a bit cooler.
308 PM EDT FRI SEP 9 2016 High pressure will remain anchored over the southeast through Saturday.
521 PM EDT FRI SEP 9 2016 Surface and upper ridging will maintain dry conditions in the forecast area through Saturday.
the drier air to the E and N of the upper low just off the TX coast has really tapered development over Nrn LA. the afternoon water vapor imagery reveals an upper trough translating SE across the Nrn and Cntrl Rockies. which will absorb the weak upper troughing /the remnants of Newton/ over the TX Panhandle into NW OK/Cntrl KS/. allowing a weak cold front to shift SE into NW TX/Cntrl and Ern OK late tonight. enhancing low level convergence and resulting in sct/numerous areas of convection development along/ahead of the front and attendant upper trough. the weak cold front itself will slowly drift SE into extreme NE TX/SW AR by mid to late morning.
209 PM MDT FRI SEP 9 2016 An upper trough and weak surface cold front will pass through the area tonight. The flow aloft will stay northwesterly through Saturday night, but the upper ridge with rest over the Big Bend area. A combination of return flow behind the front and circulation around the high center will begin drawing moisture north over AZ toward the area Saturday night.
Latest satellite imagery shows high-based CU developing along the Mogollon Rim and across the higher terrain of southeastern Arizona. Meanwhile, moisture continues to thin out in the lower-levels. Late morning sounding from KPHX also shows a subsidence inversion developing in the mid-levels associated associated with the building ridge across Sonora. Warming trend will continue Saturday as the anticyclone in Sonora drifts northward into southern New Mexico. Suite of convective- allowing models show somewhat more potential for showers and thunderstorms across Arizona during the afternoon, though with the mean layer southwesterly flow prevailing, activity will be mainly relegated to the higher terrain north and east of Phoenix. However, coverage of storms is not expected to exceed 5 percent across the lower deserts.
228 PM MDT FRI SEP 9 2016 Upper trof crossing the Dakotas this afternoon, with scattered shra/tsra. Convection will end early this evening as trof pulls east. High pressure located across across the overnight with clearing skies and light winds. May be some patchy frost late tonight in the Black Hills and around Pine Ridge. Dry and warmer for Saturday.
SHORT TERM (Tonight through Saturday Night): Water vapor imagery shows an upper level low over the western Gulf of Mexico this afternoon. The upper level low will drift towards the lower Texas coast tonight resulting in an increase in some high clouds. The upper level low/trough will move towards the middle Texas coast on Saturday as a weak cold front moves through Central Texas. High temperatures Saturday will range from the low to mid 90s near the coast to the upper 90s to around 100 west.
That said though, we do still have some subsidence occurring in the wake of the disturbance that moved through the region this morning as well as lingering capping aloft from the ridge to our south. Tonight the moist axis will become more focused over the northern half of the forecast area as a stronger trough moves into the Midwest. This trough will bring a cold front through the region Saturday.
Clouds will increase late tonight with overnight lows generally in the lower to mid 70s.
159 PM EDT Fri Sep 9 2016 Warm and humid conditions will continue until a strong cold front cross the area Saturday night. An upper trough and associated surface cold front is expected to approach the region Saturday, with passage Saturday night.
A strong cold front is forecast to arrive Saturday night with breezy, dry northerly winds, as well as unsettled and cooler weather. Otherwise the relatively weak and transient high pressure remaining over the aviation are will allow for VFR conditions to prevail with some occasional high clouds in addition to some flat cumulus this afternoon and evening.
353 PM CDT FRI SEP 9 2016 At 3 PM, a short wave trough was moving northeast across Wisconsin. Further to the west, a much strong short wave trough was located across southwest Minnesota and western Iowa. On Saturday morning, a short wave trough currently over South Dakota will move across northern Wisconsin.
220 PM EDT FRI SEP 9 2016 A frontal boundary will stall across Pennsylvania today, with a trof of low pressure extending south across northern Virginia.
155 PM EDT FRI SEP 9 2016 Aviation A weak area of high pressure will track eastward through the region today. A stronger cold front will push through the region Saturday morning. A cooler airmass will spread into the region Saturday afternoon and evening. A low level jet and warm front pushes in from the south tonight after midnight. followed by a cold frontal passage Saturday morning.
514 PM EDT FRI SEP 9 2016 For the short term, the major synoptic feature is a weak area of low pressure across the Florida Straits. The local LAPS analysis indicated a weak closed low at 19z and for the last 3 to 4 hours has indicated an increasing trend in the surface vorticity. As for any impacts on South Florida as it tracks west to southwest tonight, expecting bands of showers and isolated thunderstorms to continue radiating outward from the low and mainly impacting the southern portion of the peninsula and the adjacent Gulf and Atlantic waters. An upper level low currently east of the Carolinas will likely continue to retrograde southwest over the weekend and will enhance chances of showers and thunderstorms, with activity possible across the Gulf and Atlantic waters as well.
306 PM CDT FRI SEP 9 2016 Winds across the northwestern zones have remained out of a northerly direction over the course of the day Today with the main push of the cold front still over Kansas. Storm chances drop off quickly as the cold front pushes south of the area.
Deep layer high pressure remains in control this afternoon, with dry and mostly clear conditions prevailing across the region.
Highest chances of convection to shift into eastern IL by early evening, and then expect a lull in convection for a time after dark until cold front in central IA increases chances of showers/thunderstorms again overnight as it moves into central IL late tonight. The cold front to sweep through southeast/eastcentral IL Saturday morning where chances of showers and a few thunderstorms lingers, then drier, cooler and breezy conditions expected behind the front by Saturday afternoon.
349 PM EDT FRI SEP 9 2016 High pressure will continue offshore through Saturday night.
Strong cold front Saturday night brings airmass change and cooler/drier air for the end of the weekend. ahead of an approaching strong cold front. Saturday will be dry with a hot and humid day as temps reach into the lower 90s. A cold front will move through Saturday night.
Those areas are primed for flash flooding concerns should another round of moderate to heavy rainfall pass over with the main cold frontal passage. After passage of front this evening/overnight, light rain will linger before high pressure/subsidence and cooler conditions move in. /Saturday through Friday/ High pressure will move into Iowa for the weekend and lead to very pleasant conditions.
338 PM CDT Fri Sep 9 2016 The combination of an upper low near the mid Texas coast and an Easterly Wave moving into SE Texas will keep chances for showers and thunderstorms into this evening. On Saturday, the approach of a frontal boundary from the north will combine with the dynamics contributed by the wave and the upper low.
337 PM CDT FRI SEP 9 2016 cold front near an International Falls to Fargo line moving southeast.
Didn't see the low cigs/vis last night materialize, but got somewhat close to CLL. An upper low was evident at mid morning over the western Gulf offshore of the central Texas coast.
353 PM PDT FRI SEP 9 2016 An offshore high pressure ridge will maintain dry conditions across the region and above normal temperatures across interior areas through this weekend.
A cold front was moving south across northwest Kansas, currently located from the Nebraska border north of Norton to near Gove, Kansas. Temperatures were quite pleasant outside today due to the cold front and this morning's cloud cover, only climbing into the low to upper 70s so far. One limiting factor could be poor lapse rates; however, forcing by the incoming cold front should be able to overcome this. Also remain unsure about storm severity as the cold front should undercut these storms, limiting how severe they may be able to get.
Cold front/associated tstms will approach from the nw Saturday morning and push slowly swd through the day. along a SW to NE oriented H850 theta-e ridge. The convection may be further enhanced by the large upper low spinning just off the TX coast. with its attendant trough axis translating NW into N LA/E TX through the afternoon. which will be farthest removed from the forcing associated with the theta-e axis and approaching inverted trough aloft.
219 PM EDT FRI SEP 9 2016 A frontal boundary will stall across Pennsylvania today, with a trof of low pressure extending south across northern Virginia.
255 PM EDT FRI SEP 9 2016 High pressure will continue offshore through Saturday night.
312 PM MDT FRI SEP 9 2016 Initial cold front/wind shift through all the area this afternoon, with secondary front and more substantial cool air mass dropping southward into ne CO as of 20z. Only potential weather issue will be increasing winds over the plains, as S-SE flow increases in the afternoon behind departing area of high pressure.
238 PM CDT FRI SEP 9 2016 A cold front bisecting central and southwest Kansas is progged to move south and east becoming a focus for deep moist convection this afternoon and evening. This should support scattered to numerous storms developing with convergence along the southward advancing cold front late this afternoon and evening. This will support torrential rainfall once again but the front is expected to be progressive limiting the duration of the heaviest rain with the highest amounts in the 1-3" range expected across mainly southeast KS. A ridge of high pressure will bring light winds and sunny conditions.
A weak area of low pressure will move inland over central California later this weekend and bring a slight chance of afternoon thunderstorms over the high Sierra.
344 PM EDT Fri Sep 9 2016 A warm front will track north across the area tonight and Saturday morning accompanied by scattered showers with isolated thunder possible. A cold front will approach the area from the west late Saturday, probably bringing a round of showers and thunderstorms to the area late Saturday and Saturday night.
High pressure will slowly drift east tonight, with southerly flow gradually increasing. Southerly flow will bring breezier conditions to the area on Thursday and temperatures likely about 1 to 3 degrees warmer than today.
The clouds are in an area where dewpoints are in the 40s to lower 50s while drier dewpoints in the low to mid 30s west of highway 51. A weak upper level trof extending from 560 dm 500 mb low over southeast Ontario into the southern Great Lakes and into northern IL was helping produce these cumulus clouds. High pressure ridge will remain over the area the remainder of the week and into the weekend.
1034 AM PDT WED MAY 18 2016 The Inland Northwest will experience one more day of warmer than average temperatures today, before a vigorous cold front arrives Wednesday evening. 12Z upper air sounding for Spokane shows a bit of transition taking place ahead of an approaching cold front. /Pelatti 18Z TAFS: Cold front passage this afternoon and evening allows for unsettled weather in the form of showers and thunderstorms and accompanying gusty wind, occasional lightning, and possibly small hail in the aviation area.
A moist swly flow aloft continues around the base of an upper low over AZ. WV imagery indicates several perturbations emanating fm the base of the trough, with regional radar mosaic showing a couple of clusters of tstms acrs wrn TX and over the lower Rio Grande Valley. Overnight lows will be a little cooler tonight acrs our nrn zones with temperatures into the lower 60s. This will occur as the upper low over the swrn states ejects over the plains and brings a rather strong disturbance over the area.
117 PM CDT WED MAY 18 2016 Current surface map shows the cold front sitting near the I-59 corridor.
226 PM CDT WED MAY 18 2016 224 PM CDT No real concerns expected this forecast period, as high pressure will dominate the region. Did lower min temps slightly in a few spots tonight, but with most places falling to the lower 40s. Although locations near the lake will be cooler, weak gradient and weak flow could allow for these areas to reach around 60 before cooler air off the lake pushes inland by midday. Rodriguez 224 PM CDT High pressure will continue to bring dry and warmer conditions to the CWA.
An inverted trough/boundary will move across the area today. As inverted trough moves east of the area today. Chattanooga Airport, TN 79 56 79 60 / 30 20 20 60 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 76 56 76 58 / 40 30 10 40 Oak Ridge, TN 74 55 76 57 / 50 20 10 50 Tri Cities Airport, TN 72 52 73 53 / 70 50 20 20.
Upper trough over the British Columbia coast is digging and will continue to do so during this period.
126 PM EDT WED MAY 18 2016 Aviation High pressure will remain situated over the Great Lakes through the upcoming weekend.
As for temps tonight, given the above, have trended aob the cooler guidance for tonight. Do not with dewpoints mixing out into the lower 40s across the region, do not anticipate fog development tonight. Tilly Sprawling high pressure centered over the Great Lakes region will continue to be the primary feature controlling our weather for the next several days.
202 PM EDT WED MAY 18 2016 Extended stretch of dry and stable conditions as high pressure maintains control through the TAF period. Expansive area of high pressure is building over the Great Lakes and will hold over the region through the end of the week.
1033 AM PDT WED MAY 18 2016 The Inland Northwest will experience one more day of warmer than average temperatures today, before a vigorous cold front arrives Wednesday evening. 12Z upper air sounding for Spokane shows a bit of transition taking place ahead of an approaching cold front. /Pelatti 18Z TAFS: Cold front passage this afternon and evening allows for unsettled weather in the form of showers and thunderstorms and accompanying gusty wind, occasional lightning, and possibly small hail in the aviation area.
647 PM EDT WED MAY 18 2016 High pressure will maintain VFR conditions through the forecast again with SCT-BKN 7-8kft deck dissipating quickly early this evening with the loss of daytime heating. With the high overhead Thursday, winds will be variable across the area, and remain under 10 kts.
Difficult forecast with high clouds keeping the lower cigs out of most locations. With satellite imagery showing the high clouds continuing to slide east have opted to start the forecast period with MVFR cigs at the I-35 sites. Cold front has slipped into the far southern CWA, and was located just to the south of an Eagle Pass to Pleasanton to Halletsville line.
157 PM EDT WED MAY 18 2016 A cold front will continue to slide slowly south of northeast Pennsylvania this afternoon with a few light showers and sprinkles ending. An upper level low pressure system may bring a few showers to the area Thursday. Best chance of shwrs thu will be over the higher terrain of the cats which will also be closer to the coldest air aloft.
Water vapour had upper low over four corners region with westerly flow aloft over the CWA ahead of upper trough diving into western Canada / northwest US. Tonight through Thursday night, upper trough moves into CA / OR as it closes off and turns upper flow distinctly southwest over the CWA. Warm air advection will continue ahead of it with moisture return in response to lee trough and southerly flow. Upper low settles over the Pacific NW and stalls out late in the week, with ridging over the plains.