Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
533 AM CDT Sun Oct 13 2019 A weak cold front currently in the vicinity of the Iowa-Missouri border will slowly move southward today, oozing through the northern CWA this afternoon. Southwesterly flow to the south of the approaching cold front and a sunny sky will allow temperatures across the CWA to continue to rebound into the 60s to near 70 degrees. While Sunday will be warmer than yesterday, highs will still be several degrees below normal. Temperatures will be slightly warmer than Sunday, topping out near normal.
May see some lingering snow showers on the backside of it early this morning, then conditions will dry out as high pressure settles in over the Northern Plains. The high will get pushed east on Monday ahead of an approaching frontal boundary that looks to just reach the western part of the state by late Monday afternoon. Highs on Monday will be range from the upper 30s north to the lower 50s south. To begin the period, a cold front is progged to be passing through the region.
622 AM CDT Sun Oct 13 2019 A powerful upper level low continues to slowly move through the Great Lakes region. The orientation of this upper low is preventing any significant return flow to establish itself over the region. The orientation of the upper low is not however, preventing WAA from establishing itself. Monday the upper level low will push a little more to the east into Ontario Canada.
Today will be similar to yesterday with clear skies and highs in the upper 50s to upper 60s, but with weaker wind gusts as high pressure moves overhead. Highs Monday should make it into the low 60s to low 70s.
423 AM MDT Sun Oct 13 2019 A subtle upper level ridge will build over the region today and bring more mild conditions to the area.
Zonal flow aloft today and tomorrow (albeit with very low amplitude ridging moving across the forecast area Monday) will result in a continuation of the warming trend with temperatures returning to above seasonal normals as early as this afternoon. A low amplitude trough crossing New Mexico Monday night might bring a few showers as far north as the southern Rolling Plains, but the trend has been to shift the dynamics further south with each of the last few runs.
334 AM MDT Sun Oct 13 2019 Quiet weather remains in place today as a quick moving, transitory ridge moves through ahead of a trough further to the west. Winds will become more southwesterly thanks to the approaching trough which will allow high temperatures to be a bit warmer than seen yesterday. On Monday, the aforementioned trough will move through the area but with no moisture tap or any real moisture to speak of, all we'll see will be a few high clouds and some gusty surface winds as the trough passes.
Cloud shield from upper low about out of the CWA. Monday, fast moving upper trough zips into the northern plains. It will drag a cold front through the CWA. Before the cold front arrives, expect warmer temperatures yet again with readings near normal across far southern SD. Gusty northwest winds expected behind the cold front with 1-3mb/3hr pressure rises and modest cold air advection.
A subtle upper level ridge will build over the region today and bring more mild conditions to the area.
Today will be the final pleasant day in our current pattern of high pressure. This area of high pressure will shift fully to our east as a quick-moving weather system enters later today.
724 AM EDT Sun Oct 13 2019 Several days of dry weather are expected across Central Pennsylvania thanks to high pressure and a dry prevailing west northwest flow of air aloft.
Mild conditions are expected today as a weak trough axis lies across the state. 850-hPa temperatures will warm into the lower teens and therefore highs mainly in the 70s still look on track. There will be more of a downslope SW wind component to the low level winds with 850-hPa temperatures warming into the mid teens.
526 AM EDT Sun Oct 13 2019 Several days of dry weather are expected across Central Pennsylvania thanks to high pressure and a dry prevailing west northwest flow of air aloft.
1018 AM EDT Sun Oct 13 2019 High pressure centered east of the Atlantic Bight supports fresh easterly breezes across the Florida Keys marine district.
606 AM CDT Sun Oct 13 2019 Fast northwesterly flow continues across the area as directed by the closed low over the Great Lakes and Ontario. As high pressure settles in on Sunday night, calm winds develop as temps dip into the 20s north and 30s south. Southerly return flow develops on Monday, allowing temperatures to climb 10 to 15F warmer than the day prior. A cold front pushes through on Monday night, bringing an end to the temporarily seasonal temps.
232 PM CDT Sun Oct 13 2019 It's a beautiful Sunday afternoon across the entire area with us being sandwiched between a very large upper low north of the Great Lakes region and the old front that came through a couple days ago stalled out along the gulf coast. Temperatures tonight will be a few degrees warmer than last night with temperatures in the upper 30s to lower 40s. Tomorrow will be another sunny day with temperatures in the low to mid 70s.
148 PM EDT Sun Oct 13 2019 Aviation - Hazardous conditions along the lakeshore will continue today - Scattered rain showers into tonight, snow showers possible tonight around route 10 - Much cooler than normal weather through Monday Satellite imagery and model data show a mid level wave dropping into the Western Great Lakes Region early this morning. mainly across the higher terrain along route 10 in northern parts of the CWA. Well below normal temperatures are predicted as the low level thermal trough tracks through.
High pressure will continue across the area through Monday night.
139 PM MDT Sun Oct 13 2019 The upper level ridge over the region will slide east tonight but give us another night of clear and calm conditions good for valley min temps below guidance. An upper level trough over the West Coast today will move overhead late Monday with no more than some increase in high clouds and mixing of gusty winds to the surface Monday afternoon and early evening. The mid week will be dry and warmer than normal dominated by an upper level ridge.
However, did add mention of some patchy freezing drizzle across portions of the Prairie Coteau as some reports came in of some. Otherwise, this light precip in the form of flurries/light snow showers/patchy freezing drizzle will exit to the south and east later this morning. May see some lingering snow showers on the backside of it early this morning, then conditions will dry out as high pressure settles in over the Northern Plains. The high will get pushed east on Monday ahead of an approaching frontal boundary that looks to just reach the western part of the state by late Monday afternoon. Highs on Monday will be range from the upper 30s north to the lower 50s south. To begin the period, a cold front is progged to be passing through the region.
As temperatures drop into the overnight hours, a few of the colder areas along and north of US-10 may even see some flurries should temperatures drop towards freezing.
For the day on Monday temperatures will continue to warm from the low to mid 80s that we are seeing today, to the mid to upper 80s to near 90 tomorrow.
Temps range from the lower 60s over portions of north GA to mid/upr 80s across much of central GA.
Flat ridge to move overhead tonight with subtropical moisture feeding E/NE from tropical disturbance SW of southern Baja.
1126 AM MDT Sun Oct 13 2019 Quiet weather remains in place today as a quick moving, transitory ridge moves through ahead of a trough further to the west. Winds will become more southwesterly thanks to the approaching trough which will allow high temperatures to be a bit warmer than seen yesterday. On Monday, the aforementioned trough will move through the area but with no moisture tap or any real moisture to speak of, all we'll see will be a few high clouds and some gusty surface winds as the trough passes.
Increasingly breezy conditions along with a cooling trend can be expected towards the end of the week as renewed troughing develops across the West. This weak trough will slide eastward tomorrow giving way to weak ridging through midweek and allowing a modest warming trend to commence.
Northwest Tennessee will be cooler than the rest of the area, as temperatures should dip down into lower 40s. By tomorrow, a cut off low will move from the US/Canadian border into eastern Canada, allowing a trough to deepen over the Southwestern US. This will place the Mid-South under a weak ridge, allowing for mostly dry weather.
Upper high pressure shifting east and weakening across Montana and Wyoming today with a continuing of the drying trend.
249 PM MDT Sun Oct 13 2019 Quiet weather will continue tonight with ridging overhead.
An upper trough will move into the Northern Plains on Monday. This will bring above normal temperatures to western Nebraska as a prefrontal trough moves in. The air will be very dry to the west of the trough across portions of western into southwest Nebraska. A cold front will move through the area by midnight, with a breezy northwest wind overnight across the east. Lows not as cold from the lower 30s west to upper 30s east.
3 inches in response to a weak disturbance/warm front moving inland from the Gulf of Mexico. Tomorrow will be a bit warmer than today with highs getting into the mid 80s in Houston. A majority of the area is dry Monday night as the warm front moves north and out of our area. With south winds in place, look for overnight lows generally in the low to mid 70s.
A deep closed low currently across the Great Lakes with a trough extending southward into the Tennessee Valley. This low level moisture is trapped below an inversion and extended the cloud cover through the early afternoon in the forecast update. VFR conditions will continue throughout the TAF cycle with high pressure building into the region.
1213 PM CDT Sun Oct 13 2019 Fast northwesterly flow continues across the area as directed by the closed low over the Great Lakes and Ontario. As high pressure settles in on Sunday night, calm winds develop as temps dip into the 20s north and 30s south. Southerly return flow develops on Monday, allowing temperatures to climb 10 to 15F warmer than the day prior. A cold front pushes through on Monday night, bringing an end to the temporarily seasonal temps.
A weak surface boundary divides high pressure systems over central Nebraska and western Wyoming/Colorado this afternoon.
A lee- side low pressure system will develop Monday allowing some WAA to work its way into our area with southerly flow.
The best chances for precipitation will be for areas along Rocky Mountain Front and the higher elevations of central and north-central Montana. Dry and mild, and breezy conditions return through mid-week as a broad and high amplitude ridge develops over the region.
The best chances for precipitation will be for areas along Rocky Mountain Front and the higher elevations of central and north-central Montana. Updated 1144 AM MDT Sun Oct 13 2019 (13/18Z TAF Period) VFR conditions will prevail through late tonight into Monday morning, then a passing system and attendant cold front will bring lowering clouds and isolated to scattered light rain/snow showers over the Rocky Mountain Front and north-central Montana. Dry and mild, and breezy conditions return through mid-week as a broad and high amplitude ridge develops over the region.
This low level cyclonic flow really does not start to relax until very late tonight across the southern sections as an area of high pressure moves across Iowa. If this clearing does occur, still some doubts whether is would occur early enough to allow for much frost to form or for temperatures to drop much below freezing. The clouds should then clear from south to north through the day Monday as the area of low pressure over Ontario continues to pull away from the region. With some sunshine, look for warmer temperatures with highs in the 40s and lower 50s expected.
222 PM CDT Sun Oct 13 2019 An upper low/trough is centered just north of the Great Lakes with another trough over the west coast. The upper trough over the west coast moves east on Monday with temperatures remaining similar to the previous day.
255 PM CDT Sun Oct 13 2019 A weak wind shift will enter into the northern part of the CWFA next 24 hours, muted by high pressure that will be the dominant weather feature. We will err on the high side of guidance during the day (with sun), and lower at night.
325 PM CDT Sun Oct 13 2019 Wx map shows 1020mb high pressure ridge across the Gulf states to the East Coast. Temperatures in the lower/mid 70s across Inland Southeast Texas & Central Louisiana, with temperatures near 80 to lower 80s across the I-10 corridor. High pressure will continue to slide east tonight, gradually bringing easterly winds overnight, and southeasterly winds Monday.
With sunny skies and light downslope winds, highs should reach the low 70s across a large portion of the plains. The upper level ridge axis will be over western CO this afternoon with a west to northwesterly flow aloft. An upper level trough moving along the U.
1127 AM EDT Sun Oct 13 2019 Several days of dry weather are expected across Central Pennsylvania thanks to high pressure and a dry prevailing west northwest flow of air aloft.
As it does, lee side troughing/surface pressure falls will increase allowing the surface stationary front across southwest Kansas this afternoon to lift northward as a warm front through the day Monday. Some indication already exists overnight in the Panhandles of boundary layer warm advection int he models overnight, and temperatures early Monday morning could be quite warmer int he red hills region than central Kansas counties north of the smokey hill river and far western High Plains counties where lows could still fall into the 30s once again. Some of the bias corrected versions of the MOS and models have warmer high temperatures under this zone of enhanced downslope (meaning highs in the mid 80s not out of the question).
1229 PM CDT Sun Oct 13 2019 A weak cold front currently in the vicinity of the Iowa-Missouri border will slowly move southward today, oozing through the northern CWA this afternoon. Southwesterly flow to the south of the approaching cold front and a sunny sky will allow temperatures across the CWA to continue to rebound into the 60s to near 70 degrees. While Sunday will be warmer than yesterday, highs will still be several degrees below normal. Temperatures will be slightly warmer than Sunday, topping out near normal.
Highs Monday should reach the lower 50s west but remain in the 30s across the central and east where deep snow remains.
A weak cold front is still on track to impact the Northern Rockies tonight through Monday.
Bigelbach PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: Slight ridging is overhead today, which will lead to a sunny but cool day for mid-October.
Cooler temperatures and a more active pattern are anticipated late in the upcoming week. Morning water vapor and H5 analysis indicate the short wave ridge that has been upstream for days previous has shifted downstream and overhead, with axis extending north through Central Montana. Upstream a weak upper trough along the Pac Coast is already showing signs of splitting, a trend that will continue over the next 24 hours as it continues to translate inland. Do note increased mid/high cloud cover developing on the downstream side of this trough, and expect sensibly a net increase of that will be the only tangible weather changes locally as it splits around the Eastern Great Basin region Monday.
For Monday, a little warmer weather is expected with highs in the 70s.
Expect warmer highs today compared to yesterday, though still pleasant and near average for this time of year.
A combination of weak isentropic lift and increased Pacific moisture associated with a weak trough across the Big Bend Region are producing the showers. A weak trough is moving across the area early this morning, resulting in scattered light showers generally along and north of I-10. The trough will continue to move east and the showers should exit the area by 15Z.
Decided to issue a Frost Advisory given low temps forecasted in the lower 30s with lessening winds.
Temperatures are cooler today and the trend will continue Monday.
Large upper low that is been impacting the state through the weekend/late last week is spinning across Ontario and will continue to shove eastward with skies clearing out across the state. Winds will shift around to the south with WAA into the state ahead of the next upper trough currently moving through Canadian Rockies.
251 PM CDT Sun Oct 13 2019 Pronounced upper level low continues to lift away with our region remaining on the far southeast periphery of the cloud shield and within the breezier west to northwesterly winds. Broad ridging sets in for Monday and will provide for dry conditions, although with a filter of upper level clouds.
An upper level low is currently over the Great Lakes region with the trough extending to the south. South of the upper level low, southwesterly winds will occur today with gusts up to 20 mph possible at times. Lows this morning will be in the middle 30s to the lower 40s, with the coldest readings across south central Missouri. The upper level low will lift off to the northeast early this week allowing an upper level ridge to build towards the area. This will allow warmer conditions to occur on Monday as highs top out in the lower to middle 70s.
Water vapor imagery indicates an upper trough entering the western states this afternoon. Lee cyclogenesis ahead of this feature will create increasing southerly low-level flow overnight into Monday with clear skies continuing for a slightly warmer night tonight and highs back in the upper 60s to mid 70s Monday.
1144 AM CDT Sun Oct 13 2019 A powerful upper level low continues to slowly move through the Great Lakes region. The orientation of this upper low is preventing any significant return flow to establish itself over the region. The orientation of the upper low is not however, preventing WAA from establishing itself. Monday the upper level low will push a little more to the east into Ontario Canada.
/Tonight through Monday Night/ Upper level pattern has changed very little in 24 hrs, and the upper low over the nrn Great Lakes region continues to slowly churn ewd as another trof over the wrn CONUS deepens and pushes ewd.
126 PM MDT Sun Oct 13 2019 With the low pressure system moving into Ontario, weak ridging is developing over the Rockies, ahead of another trough pushing into the west coast. Monday afternoon, a cold front will start sweeping through the region as a fast-moving upper wave approaches the northern plains.
This might again lead to a strong gradient between north (colder, more radiational cooling) and south (warmer, less cooling).
We are not expecting any measurable precip in our area, but there will be a few sprinkles in the higher terrain of western and northern Baker County and in northern Adams and Valley County. The system will push a weak cold front through the region tonight, but it will be dry.
Not quite as cold as past three nights with lows mostly in the middle to upper 30s, those some near to slightly below freezing spots are likely in the Loup Valley.
249 PM EDT Sun Oct 13 2019 High pressure centered east of the Atlantic Bight supports moderate to fresh easterly breezes across the Florida Keys marine district. Despite the higher humidity, the discerning local can feel the decreased afternoon highs and the lower sun angle. The mean-layer ridge over the western Gulf of Mexico will control the weather through the next several days as it lumbers to the east, then southeast to near Cuba. The low level ridge axis initially across north-central Florida will sag southward in tandem with the upper ridge's trek towards the Western Caribbean. Rain chances and breezes will trail off tonight and Monday, as the low level ridge axis approaches the Keys, dragging some of the drier air south.
244 PM EDT Sun Oct 13 2019 Just north of the Great Lakes, a stacked low sits at the top of an upper trough axis. Highs in the low 70s across Kentucky with areas in southern Indiana only seeing upper 60s.
307 PM CDT Sun Oct 13 2019 Weak cold front currently moving through region will stall out just south of forecast area by early Monday morning. Not a lot of WAA with this boundary, so highs will only be a few degrees warmer than today's highs, but near normal in the mid 60s to low 70s.
319 PM CDT Sun Oct 13 2019 Weak upper ridging today going nearly zonal by Monday will maintain dry and quiet conditions across our entire forecast area.
231 PM CDT Sun Oct 13 2019 High pressure reigns supreme across eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas Today with the autumnal sun shining brightly down upon the area.
A weak wind shift will enter into the northern part of the CWFA next 24 hours, muted by high pressure that will be the dominant weather feature. We will err on the high side of guidance during the day (with sun), and lower at night.
Coverage should be less than we saw this morning thanks to slightly warmer temperatures. So if they continue to look cooler that expected, fog might be a little more widespread than we're currently expecting. Temperatures tomorrow will be a few degrees warmer than today under sunny skies.
505 PM MDT Sun Oct 13 2019 With the low pressure system moving into Ontario, weak ridging is developing over the Rockies, ahead of another trough pushing into the west coast. Monday afternoon, a cold front will start sweeping through the region as a fast-moving upper wave approaches the northern plains.
Low level moisture remains locally high in the lower Arkansas valley and with good radiational cooling again tonight expect some localized visibility restrictions at KFSM. /Issued 231 PM CDT Sun Oct 13 2019/ High pressure reigns supreme across eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas Today with the autumnal sun shining brightly down upon the area.
The best chances for precipitation will be reserved for the higher elevations. Then expect mild and dry conditions along with breezy winds through mid week, before unsettled and cooler weather move in toward the weekend. A cold front associated with this weather system is expected pass through Monday morning and shift winds to a more northerly direction and keep high temperatures for Monday afternoon about 10 to 15 degrees cooler than today.
Dry conditions are expected to continue over southern Colorado tonight in combination with moderating temperatures, basically running some 3F to 8F degrees warmer than minimum temperatures realized over most locations Sunday morning.
Surface analysis this evening places a 1020 mb ridge of high pressure centered over Central Alabama and extending back into the Lower Mississippi Valley. Northwest Tennessee will be cooler than the rest of the area, as temperatures should dip down into lower 40s. By tomorrow, a cut off low will move from the US/Canadian border into eastern Canada, allowing a trough to deepen over the Southwestern US. This will place the Mid-South under a weak ridge, allowing for mostly dry weather.
The cold front continues to move through the forecast area this evening.
/issued 325 PM CDT Sun Oct 13 2019/ Wx map shows 1020mb high pressure ridge across the Gulf states to the East Coast. Temperatures in the lower/mid 70s across Inland Southeast Texas & Central Louisiana, with temperatures near 80 to lower 80s across the I-10 corridor. High pressure will continue to slide east tonight, gradually bringing easterly winds overnight, and southeasterly winds Monday.
531 PM MDT Sun Oct 13 2019 The upper level ridge over the region will slide east tonight but give us another night of clear and calm conditions good for valley min temps below guidance. An upper level trough over the West Coast today will move overhead late Monday with no more than some increase in high clouds and mixing of gusty winds to the surface Monday afternoon and early evening. The mid week will be dry and warmer than normal dominated by an upper level ridge.
This cloud cover still all part of the large, cyclonic circulation from the upper low across southern Ontario. A new system and associated cold front enters the picture late in this period.