Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
210 PM EDT WED AUG 24 2016 Increasingly warmer and more humid air encroaches. Cold front approaches late week. with upper ridging across the eastern U.
136 PM EDT WED AUG 24 2016 Shower and thunderstorm chances will increase through Thursday ahead of a slow moving cold front. Challenging forecast with respect to shower/storm chances across the region until cold front and upper level features depart Thursday evening. cold front will approach the region with at least scattered showers and storms. Severe threat for today and tomorrow on the lower end but still something to watch.
A dry and cool northerly flow will persist which will keep temperatures cooler than normal.
325 PM CDT WED AUG 24 2016 An upper level ridge of high pressure is over the southeastern U. Temperatures have warmed into the upper 80s to the lower 90s with heat index readings in the 95 to 100 degree range this afternoon. These muggy conditions will continue into early this evening then temperatures will slowly cool into the lower 70s for overnight lows tonight. The upper level high has pushed a front across south central Kansas into northern Missouri. Highs in the upper 80s to the lower 90s with heat index values in the 95 to 100 degree range again across much of the area. The front will be able to sag slightly farther to the south as the upper level high sags slightly to the southeast.
246 PM CDT WED AUG 24 2016 Upper level high pressure will remain centered over the southeastern U.
Upper low currently over the Rockies will slowly lift to the NE into the northern plains as an open wave tonight through Thu. This moisture transport will interact with a cold frontal boundary expected to drop south into northern KS for Thu night. Earlier model runs and the ECMWF suggests a ridge of high pressure would drop south across the plains for the weekend. Ketcham Zonal flow will not allow the cold frontal boundary to push very far into OK before washing out. Weak ridging looks to move across the plains for Mon-early Tue. This will lead to warmer temps for the beginning of the week. Showers and storms over the high Plains will try and move into central KS generally after midnight.
904 PM EDT Wed Sep 14 2016 Building high pressure in the wake of this evenings cold front will provide dry weather and seasonal temperatures until the approach of a weekend frontral system. Otherwise, building high pressure in the wake of the front will support the clearing and drying tonight and Thursday.
837 PM EDT WED SEP 14 2016 A weak cold front will sag south through the region early this evening.
with more in the way of elevated cloud cover noted on the IR satellite imagery over much of N TX into SE OK/Wrn AR near the remnants of a weak H500 trough aloft. The trough should continue to weaken overnight through Thursday morning.
We've lowered PoPs area-wide, while retaining the highest PoPs in our counties along the state line. /issued 247 PM CDT WED SEP 14 2016/ Healthy upper level low is situated over the Snake River Valley of Idaho this afternoon. The first of enhanced chances will be on Thursday night as a weak short wave trough moves overhead.
923 PM EDT Wed Sep 14 2016 A dry cold front will cross the area tonight.
Expect drier, cooler and breezy conditions today as a storm system moves away from the state.
In fact, VFR conditions should prevail through the forecast period in the ridge pattern.
An upper low over southeastern Idaho continues to send a north to northeast flow over the area. Temperatures are generally a few degrees warmer than last night at this time and dew point temperatures are also generally up a few degrees.
1007 PM EDT WED SEP 14 2016 A backdoor cold front will settle slowly south through VA tonight and NC on Thu. Meanwhile, Tropical Cyclone Julia is forecast to meander near the southern SC coast during the next several days. A cold front analyzed at 02Z from SRN NJ WSWWD across MD and the NRN Virginias will make only slow progress SWD through VA tonight, and will likely lie across SERN VA or NERN NC by 12Z, with no anticipated impact here tonight.
1130 PM CDT WED SEP 14 2016 Surface to mid-level ridge of high pressure giving the area a pleasant day. mostly sunny elsewhere with temperatures as of 2 pm ranging from the middle 60s to the lower 70s. will likely see some patchy fog as temperatures dip down into the lower/mid 40s. Lows away from the bog country expected to fall off into the lower 50s. will likely get most of the day in dry as high pressure holds over the Great Lakes Region. Increasing cloud cover should hold high temperatures Thursday in the low to middle 70s.
827 PM PDT WED SEP 14 2016 A ridge of high pressure will gradually nose its way into the West Coast by the weekend, allowing temperature to gradually warm through the end of the week.
The upper low lifting northeast into Wyoming will leave a cool and generally stable air mass over the region through the upcoming weekend. It has been a somewhat active evening across the northern portion of the forecast area as cyclonic flow at the base of an upper level low has brought a modestly moist and unstable air mass to northern Utah and southwest Wyoming. Current infrared satellite imagery shows the center of circulation currently around Pocatello ID, with colder cloud tops wrapping around the periphery of the low from southwest Montana to far northwest Utah.
It's still warm out there as of 9PM with some areas still in the lower to middle 80s and others already into the middle 70s. Models are showing enough subsidence, thanks to the remnants of TS Julia and weak upper ridging, to keep pcpn out of fcst on Thursday.
736 PM EDT Wed Sep 14 2016 High pressure over the upper Great Lakes will build south over the region for the next couple of days providing dry weather and cooler temperatures.
Gentle to occasionally moderate breezes are mainly from the east/southeast, and temperatures along the island chain are in the lower to mid 80s under partly cloudy skies.
Still no reliable signal in models or radar trends to include convection in any of the TAFs for first 12 hours though most models indicate storms across the area by afternoon as mid level trough approaches. /issued 247 PM CDT WED SEP 14 2016/ Healthy upper level low is situated over the Snake River Valley of Idaho this afternoon. The first of enhanced chances will be on Thursday night as a weak short wave trough moves overhead.
1148 PM CDT WED SEP 14 2016 Water vapor loop shows large upper trough over the intermountain west with west-southwesterly flow extending from the southwest U. Upper low over the northern Rockies this afternoon will lift slowly northeast late this week.
Expect convection to become a little more sctd over the coastal waters after midnight as the low over the Gulf of Mexico continues to move west.
Upper 60 to near 70 dewpoints are starting to roll back to the northwest and will be moving into cooler temps in the next few hours. Upper low currently over the Rockies will slowly lift to the NE into the northern plains as an open wave tonight through Thu. This moisture transport will interact with a cold frontal boundary expected to drop south into northern KS for Thu night. Earlier model runs and the ECMWF suggests a ridge of high pressure would drop south across the plains for the weekend. Ketcham Zonal flow will not allow the cold frontal boundary to push very far into OK before washing out. Weak ridging looks to move across the plains for Mon-early Tue. This will lead to warmer temps for the beginning of the week.
In addition, rain cooled air has spread over much of the area with temps running a bit cooler than forecast in some areas, especially northwest AR and far northeast OK.
1031 PM EDT WED SEP 14 2016 A weak cold front will sag south of Pennsylvania this evening.
721 PM CDT WED SEP 14 2016 Upper level pattern depicts a flat ridge over the southeastern states with a closed low along the NV-ID border creating rather broad southwesterly flow across the region. The closed upper low out west will begin to open and lift out on Thursday.
Otherwise good flying weather next 24 hours as upper ridge remains over our area.
/issued 324 PM CDT WED SEP 14 2016/ A weak upper level ridge of high pressure extends across the Mid South down to the Gulf Coast this afternoon. The weak upper ridge will remain in place through Thursday as the boundary remains to the northwest of the region and begins to wash out. The highest pops (low end chance) will remain over northwest sections in closest proximity to the front. with high temperatures again in the lower to middle 90s with peak heat index readings around 100 degrees.
1018 PM EDT WED SEP 14 2016 Moisture will remain over the region through much of the week in the easterly flow between high pressure to the north and Tropical Storm Julia just south of the area. Kept the highest pops across the southeast Midlands into the CSRA. Followed the guidance consensus for high temperatures in the low to mid 80s and lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s. The GFS and ECMWF indicate high moisture through much of the medium-range period associated with a long-fetch easterly flow south of pressure ridge.
The lower cigs are forecast to continue through the mid/late morning hours.
Persistent easterly flow continues to impact coastal South Texas which should result in minor tidal overflow again tonight during the high tide cycle.
Temperatures are running 5 degree or so warmer than last night at this time. High pressure will continue to build over the region the next several days with a warming trend through the end of the week.
1019 PM EDT WED SEP 14 2016 Crystal clear skies with high pressure centered right overhead. Large area of high pressure and dry air stretches across the northern Great Lakes back into the northern plains. A fair amount of sunshine across the region today, although cooler air aloft and daytime heating did bring about sct-bkn cloud cover for much of the day. Tonight through Thursday: Minimal worries as high pressure develops across the Great Lakes. Upper low currently over the Rockies moves slowly northeast over the top of the Southeastern US ridge through the week.
607 PM CDT WED SEP 14 2016 Upper ridge induced pattern remaining unchanged from past svrl days. /issued 403 PM CDT WED SEP 14 2016/ Persistent upper ridge along the Gulf coastal region has allowed for lower to mid 90s once again this afternoon with some isolated to widely scattered convection developing over the past few hours. Convection and cloud cover will begin to diminish shortly after sunset with lows falling off into the lower to mid 70s overnight. A similar day is expected on Thursday with the ridge still entrenched across the SECONUS as highs once again climb into the lower to mid 90s.
735 PM EDT WED SEP 14 2016 A large area of high pressure centered over the western lakes will move across the Great Lakes.
1156 PM CDT WED SEP 14 2016 Upper level pattern depicts a flat ridge over the southeastern states with a closed low along the NV-ID border creating rather broad southwesterly flow across the region. The closed upper low out west will begin to open and lift out on Thursday.
/issued 247 PM CDT WED SEP 14 2016/ Healthy upper level low is situated over the Snake River Valley of Idaho this afternoon. The first of enhanced chances will be on Thursday night as a weak short wave trough moves overhead.
Tropical Storm Julia will meander on or along the GA/Sc coast into THU as Atlantic high pressure begins to ridge in across south FL. Tropical Storm Julia well north of the waters and high pressure ridging in to the south will provide southwest to west winds overnight at 10 knots or less.
720 PM EDT WED SEP 14 2016 A weak cold front crosses tonight. High pressure passes to the north Thursday.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 70 93 68 92 / 10 10 0 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 68 92 66 91 / 10 10 0 10 Oak Ridge, TN 66 92 65 90 / 10 10 0 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 61 90 62 88 / 10 10 0 10.
851 PM EDT WED SEP 14 2016 Isolated showers have developed across the higher terrain this evening, but with the dry air in place and waning instability, they should not last very long.
Upper low in southeast Idaho will weaken and shift east tonight and Thursday as a Pacific ridge builds inland across Oregon.
615 PM CDT WED SEP 14 2016 Surface to mid-level ridge of high pressure giving the area a pleasant day. mostly sunny elsewhere with temperatures as of 2 pm ranging from the middle 60s to the lower 70s. will likely see some patchy fog as temperatures dip down into the lower/mid 40s. Lows away from the bog country expected to fall off into the lower 50s. will likely get most of the day in dry as high pressure holds over the Great Lakes Region. Increasing cloud cover should hold high temperatures Thursday in the low to middle 70s.
Ridge axis centered over Wisconsin will gradually drift east overnight. Meanwhile, approaching low pressure in the Dakotas will bring a transition to southerly flow and increasing moisture. Have adjusted overnight temperatures a few degrees cooler across the eastern half of the forecast area where the calm winds and clear skies will allow for strong radiational cooling throughout much of the night. Although tonight will remain a few degrees warmer than last night as the Northland will be on the back side of the high. As the low becomes vertically stacked in the Dakotas tomorrow afternoon, it will bring increasing clouds, southerly winds and PWAT values to the region. Strong WAA will develop across the Upper Midwest and western Great Lakes on Thursday night, ahead of a developing low pressure system and upper level trough in the Dakotas.
(Issued 857 PM CDT WED SEP 14 2016) It's still warm out there as of 9PM with some areas still in the lower to middle 80s and others already into the middle 70s.
Proton Upper low is continuing its northeast path into Montana tonight then exiting Thursday night.
/issued 607 PM CDT WED SEP 14 2016/ Upper ridge induced pattern remaining unchanged from past svrl days. /issued 403 PM CDT WED SEP 14 2016/ Persistent upper ridge along the Gulf coastal region has allowed for lower to mid 90s once again this afternoon with some isolated to widely scattered convection developing over the past few hours. Convection and cloud cover will begin to diminish shortly after sunset with lows falling off into the lower to mid 70s overnight. A similar day is expected on Thursday with the ridge still entrenched across the SECONUS as highs once again climb into the lower to mid 90s.
Cloud base is around 1000 feet and with a weaker onshore pressure gradient tonight than last night, we expect the low clouds to remain just in Coos County again overnight. Areas of IFR cigs/vsbys over the coastal waters will move onshore and into the lower Umpqua Basin tonight. A thermal trough will strengthen along the coast Thursday.
/issued 351 PM CDT WED SEP 14 2016/ (Tonight and Thursday) Currently, the western CONUS is dominated by an upper trough centered over Idaho with weak ridging over the central CONUS. A weak cold front that moved into the Big Country overnight is now located just south of Interstate 20.
922 PM MDT WED SEP 14 2016 Broad, slow-moving upper-level low pressure area continues to swirl over southeast Idaho, with northern edge of its clouds and precipitation extending across southwest and south central MT. The low's central circulation is forecast to drift into northwest Wyoming overnight, keeping much of the current cloud cover in place, mainly along/south of a Helena-to-Lewistown line.
719 PM EDT Wed Sep 14 2016 High pressure over the upper Great Lakes will build south over the region for the next couple of days providing dry weather and cooler temperatures.
High pressure over the region will maintain status quo, with mostly clear skies inland and low clouds along the coast.
956 PM EDT Wed Sep 14 2016 High pressure over the upper Great Lakes will build south over the region for the next couple of days providing dry weather and cooler temperatures.
Upper ridge will remain over the region next 24 hours keeping convection to a minimum.
Hi-res models generally show a dry night across South Central Texas aside from some isolated storms in the Edwards Plateau and Rio Grande Plains, albeit much lower in coverage and intensity compared to last night because the mid-to-upper level ridge axis is stronger than last night. Broad subtropical ridging aloft and light winds will continue to maintain hot and humid September days and daily chances for isolated to scattered convection. is not likely to repeat a nocturnal cluster tonight, as a mid to upper level ridge axis has sharpened over Central TX. Only the Canadian model was brave enough to deepen the low as it moves closer to the ridge axis aloft, so the preferred model consensus is to weaken the system near the coast by late thursday with only a slight boost in PoPs for parts of the Coastal Prairies.
The weak low pressure is well off shore to the south. /issued 438 PM CDT WED SEP 14 2016/ An area of weak low pressure over the west central Gulf of Mexico is expected to move west towards the lower Texas coast Thursday into Thursday night. High pressure at various levels of the atmosphere will be mostly just north to east of the forecast area, and a series of inverted troughs will rotate around the high pressure over the western Gulf coast region.
635 PM CDT WED SEP 14 2016 Water vapor loop shows large upper trough over the intermountain west with west-southwesterly flow extending from the southwest U. Upper low over the northern Rockies this afternoon will lift slowly northeast late this week.
854 PM EDT WED SEP 14 2016 A weak cold front will sag south of Pennsylvania this evening.
Generally looks like mostly clear skies and slightly cooler temperatures tonight.
944 PM EDT WED SEP 14 2016 A large area of high pressure centered over the western lakes will move across the Great Lakes.
Temperatures will be on a warming trend through the weekend as high pressure slowly builds over the eastern Pacific. 10-15 day gfs runs continue to show dry solutions (climatology) with warm and dry trend as thermal trough straddles the coast at times. Temperatures this afternoon are generally running a few to several degrees above those from 24 hours ago as the upper level trough moves further into the Basin/Intermountain West.
An upper level ridge will remain over the Pacific Northwest through tonight. A fairly active extended as high pressure will break down to a low pressure system moving in from the Gulf of Alaska.
Late Monday afternoon a cold front moves into northern Missouri and then into central Missouri Monday night. Not sure how far south the activity will make it given the proximity of the highs influence into southern Missouri. Will keep the lower end probabilities across central into south central Missouri.
Otherwise a well defined shrtwv trof seen in water vapor imagery is moving thru CO. There may be a residual boundary across far southern parts of SE NM/PB and may serve as a focus for tstm development Mon PM? A second shrtwv trof is advertised for Mon night/Tue AM in similar fashion to the 1st. Convection in the mtns and nearby plains will be more favored by Thur PM with a mid level trof axis extending S from INVOF SE CO along with hints of a minor mid level theta-e ridge axis. A mid level trof axis will slowly edge ewd Fri-Sat, possibly Sunday which should result in PoPs edging ewd too.
/Issued 241 AM CDT SUN JUN 5 2016/ Small short wave trough over southwest Wyoming this morning will continue to move southeast and it should be in northeast New Mexico by late this afternoon or early this evening. This convection may also be aided by an upper level weak short wave trough. The models do spread showers and thunderstorms across most of the Panhandles Monday night and this could happen if this ends up being a legitimate short wave trough.
Tonight THROUGH Monday A large high pressure ridge aloft will dominate the weather across western and central Wyoming through mid week. A series of weak low pressure troughs will move over the top of the ridge supporting isolated to widely scattered afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms mainly over the higher mountains. The high pressure ridge will support continued warming bringing rather rapid melt to the existing snow pack in the mountains bringing a peak to the runoff through the week.
Upper ridge remains in place over the northern Rockies while a long-wave trough/upper low spreads across eastern Canada.
the high based nature favors some gusty downburst winds mostly.
/issued 1028 AM CDT SUN JUN 5 2016/ High pressure centered over the southern High Plains will provide a mild, dry, and sunny day across Oklahoma and north Texas today through tonight. /issued 412 AM CDT SUN JUN 5 2016/ Patchy fog will be seen across south-central and southeast Oklahoma early this morning ahead of slow moving and very weak cold front.
531 PM EDT SUN JUN 5 2016 Further Coord with NHC/JAX and have opted to have TS Watch over portions of the E Central FL Atlc waters in place of Gale Watch with stronger winds possible on the southern periphery of the Tropical Cyclone moving by to the north during mainly the Mon night time frame. Reconnaissance aircraft is in the vicinity of the cyclone at this time and further strengthening of the cyclone is expected into Monday over the eastern Gulf. Post event drying for the north peninsula as high pressure builds in for the Mid-Atlantic.
Low pressure area is now centered over Northern Eastern California and Western Nevada. The HRRR model is indicating some possible activity rotating around the low and into the Northern Sacramento Valley this evening so have included slight chance mention in the forecast. As the low moves into Nevada on Monday some residual moisture that lingers over the mountains could cause some additional thunderstorm activity but in general expect less storms than what will happen this afternoon and later this evening. The Northern Sacramento Valley looks like it will be warmer on Monday with highs around 102.
Temperatures today should be similar to a few degrees warmer than yesterday, with the greatest warm up for the plains.
1110 AM MDT SUN JUN 5 2016 Upper level ridging remains the dominate feature over the region for another 48 hours. Just enough juice being added to the lower levels to allow for the build-up of a few high based showers and thunderstorms across the higher terrain this afternoon and evening and again Monday afternoon.
527 PM EDT SUN JUN 5 2016 A cold front moving east through the Ohio Valley will push a plume of deep moisture northward into into the state today as a warm front also lifts north across the region.
TD3 is forecast to turn northeastward tonight under the influence of an upper trough. This trough will also continue to result in moderate wind shear over the cyclone which should limit its ability to strengthen. Really the only local impact will be an increase in wave heights - especially over the outer coastal waters as swells emanate from the cyclone's center. The previously mentioned cold front should slip through the local area during the day tomorrow. Limited shower and thunderstorm activity is noted along the cold front currently and expect activity to remain scattered as it moves through the Gulf south.
1126 AM MDT SUN JUN 5 2016 The northern portion of the full latitude upper trough over the Mississippi Valley region rotates through the northeastern U. by this evening while the main upper low center moves north of the Great Lakes region. The weak low center over the Gulf coast region of Texas remains as a weaker elongated trough along the Gulf Coast. As these features of the high amplitude pattern over the U. move slowly eastward, the upper ridge axis over the western U. The smaller upper low center over northern California attempts to cut through the upper upper ridge, making it as far as northeast Nevada by late Monday.
Reconnaissance aircraft is in the vicinity of the cyclone at this time and further strengthening of the cyclone is expected into Monday over the eastern Gulf. Post event drying for the north peninsula as high pressure builds in for the Mid-Atlantic.