Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
723 PM EST SUN JAN 24 2016 CLOUDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS EVENING WITH A CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN TONIGHT.
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION LATE MONDAY MORNING RESULTING IN CLEARING SKIES AND WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS. THE BIGGEST FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE TIMING OF A COLD FRONT.
LATEST SUITE OF GUIDANCE ALL DEVELOP A BAND OF MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS WITHIN THE TROF AXIS. SO THERE MAY BE SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE BEFORE WINDS PICK UP.
A FEW HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO PASS OVERHEAD BUT MVFR CIGS ARE ONLY EXPECTED AT PNC TOMORROW MORNING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ARE SHOWING THIS FEATURE IN SOME REGARD MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL FA BY MID EVENING. GOOD THING THIS TIME TOO IS THAT WIND SPEEDS WILL STAY ON THE LOW SIDE SO NO BLOWING TO WORRY ABOUT.
ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER NIGHT OF FREEZING TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NATURE COAST. AND HIGHS SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY. AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OF THE WATERS.
931 PM CST SUN JAN 24 2016 MOISTURE RETURN CONTINUES TO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING AHEAD OF ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSING INTO THE PLAINS. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION LATE MONDAY MORNING RESULTING IN CLEARING SKIES AND WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS. THE BIGGEST FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE TIMING OF A COLD FRONT.
AREAS OF FREEZING FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING DUE TO LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE WINDS GRADUALLY INCREASING IN RESPONSE TO THE DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE CENTER IN SOUTHEAST COLORADO. AS THE LOW MOVES INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS OVERNIGHT THE WIND FIELD WILL INCREASE AND VEER TO NORTHWEST AND EVENTUALLY NORTH WHICH WILL SCOUR OUT THE FOG FROM WEST TO EAST. WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY WITH SCATTERED TO ISOLATED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS GRADUALLY WINDING DOWN WITH ANOTHER WEAK VORTICITY LOBE INDICATED ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS. AFTER THE INITIAL UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. A COUPLE OF SECONDARY SHORT WAVE TROUGHS FOLLOW IN THE HIGH AMPLITUDE NORTH/NORTHWEST FLOW.
SOME LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURE TRENDS ARE GENERALLY WARMER THAN YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME WITH READINGS MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE WEST COAST THROUGH MIDWEEK FOR WARMER TEMPERATURES AND A DRYING TREND FOR THE DISTRICT.
932 PM EST SUN JAN 24 2016 HIGH PRESSURE TONIGHT DRIFTS EAST MONDAY.
THIS SHOULD HELP LOWER TEMPERATURES A BIT MORE TONIGHT WITH VALUES POSSIBLY BOTTOMING OUT IN THE LOWER 20S.
615 PM EST SUN JAN 24 2016 CLOUDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS EVENING WITH A CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE, A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK BEFORE CHANCES FOR RAIN AND SNOW RETURN THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
940 PM CST SUN JAN 24 2016 A COLD FRONT IN FAR NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA WILL MOVE QUICKLY EAST OVERNIGHT.
1024 PM EST SUN JAN 24 2016 DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS TO THE REGION MID WEEK WHICH MAY STALL ALONG THE COAST AND KEEP WEATHER UNSETTLED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. LOCAL RADIATION SCHEME DROPS TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID 20S AT COLUMBIA AND AUGUSTA AND A BLEND OF THE COOLER MAV AND WARMER MET GUIDANCE FALLS IN LINE WITH THIS LOCAL SCHEME. SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS MOVES ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES AND PROVIDES A STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. MODIFYING AIR MASS AND INCREASED WINDS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER ALONG WITH A 20-25 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET WILL PROVIDE WARMER TEMPERATURES AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40 DEGREES.
629 PM EST SUN JAN 24 2016 DRY AND COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE BY MIDWEEK.
THINK BEST CHANCE OF RAINS SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 26/06Z WHEN THE NEXT COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA.
THINK BEST CHANCE OF RAINS SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 26/06Z WHEN THE NEXT COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA. AREAL COVERAGE OF THE PRECIP SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT ALONG & AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT THAT'LL BE PUSHING THRU THE REGION.
539 PM EST SUN JAN 24 2016 A WEAK TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION MONDAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST MONDAY NIGHT.
ALSO A POSSIBILITY OF SOME LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE WEST INTO CENTRAL TONIGHT WITH THIS SECOND BAND AS SOME DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE AND LIGHT SNOW THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT HIGHLIGHT THE SHORT TERM FORECAST. ALSO MAINTAINED THE MENTION OF PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL SATURATION WARMER THAN -10C SUPPORTS THIS THREAT UNTIL THE COLUMN CAN SATURATE SUFFICIENTLY TO ALLOW ICE CRYSTALS TO REACH THE LOW LEVEL STRATUS. EXPECT CEILINGS TO LOWER TO MAINLY IFR BY LATE EVENING OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH SCATTERED TO ISOLATED LIGHT SNOW/FREEZING DRIZZLE.
IT SHOULD FINALLY BE WARMER TONIGHT AS WINDS STAY UP FOR A WHILE. FIRST UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS TONIGHT/MONDAY BUT NOT ENOUGH MOISTURE TONIGHT. THEN RETREATS IT IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH. BOUNDARY LAYER IS COOLER AND WITH MORE CLOUDS. THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH WILL ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO MOVE JUST NORTH OF (OR EXTREME NORTHERN PORTIONS OF) THE CWFA BY DAYBREAK. A BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN/SHOWERS WITH THE APPROACH OF THIS TROUGH AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS PWATS GET AROUND 1 INCH AND CONVERGENCE WITH THE BOUNDARY.
THIS SHOULD BE PRIMARILY A DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE EVENING. THE 12Z NAM IS THE WETTEST MODEL AND DOES SUGGEST A MIX OF FREEZING DRIZZLE AND SNOW AS FAR SOUTH AS I-70. FAIRLY CONFIDENT IN A DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE SCENARIO. KRC A WARMING TREND IS IN STORE FOR THE WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. KRC A COLD FRONT WILL RACE SOUTHWARD FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING ACROSS THE REGION. COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS. OTHERWISE THE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD GRADUALLY SCATTER OUT FOR LATE MONDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
with a moderate chance for -FZDZ up across the far northwestern zones as temps remain borderline freezing early Monday morning. but overall confidence remains to marginal as warm air advection and increasing cloud cover could keep temps just above freezing as the event gets underway. and considering the lower confidence in temperature expectations up north.
THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE LESS AND EXPECT LOWER CIGS/FOG TO DEVELOP AROUND 10Z WITH IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 15Z.
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME PATCHY FREEZING FOG AROUND TRI EARLY TOMORROW MORNING BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE IN TAFS.
1000 PM PST MON DEC 28 2015 NEW AVIATION DISCUSSION THE SHOWERS WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXITS THE REGION. FAIR SKIES WILL CONTINUE THE REST OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ALOFT WITH BREEZY WINDS AT TIMES. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MOJAVE DESERT. WITH TEMPERATURES ALREADY IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S AND ECHOES ON KEYX RADAR.
318 AM CST TUE DEC 29 2015 Weak ridging aloft was over the Central Plains behind the old upper low moving across the Great Lakes and another trough digging into southern Arizona. Local surface pressure gradient continues to weaken with ridge from Dakotas south into east Texas. 9 satellite imagery showing some thinning and breaks in the prevalent low cloud just east the ridge axis. Kept highs on the higher side of guidance with similar thoughts on the snow field being much shallower than models believe with some scattered clearing anticipated.
Areas of freezing fog has formed in Southeast New Mexico and the Northwest Permian Basin. Sfc obs indc that areas of freezing fog has formed in portions of Southeast New Mexico and the Northwest Permian Basin. A trof currently moving into the Intermountain West will swing across the High Plains this aftn/evening.
333 AM EST TUE DEC 29 2015 AFTER ABOUT 6 TO 9 HOURS SPENT IN THE WARM SECTOR THIS MORNING, DURING WHICH TIME TEMPERATURES WILL MAKE A CLIMB TOWARD 40 DEGREES, COLD AIR WILL FILL IN BEHIND THIS MORNING'S COLD FRONT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. 925MB TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO DROP TO -3C, WHICH IS ACTUALLY WARMER THAN YESTERDAY'S WINTER STORM AIRMASS. HIGHS WILL BE FIRST THING THIS MORNING BEFORE FALLING INTO THE MID 30S FOR THE REST OF THE DAY, SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. WELL-DEFINED SFC-925 TROUGH AXIS NORTH OF I-69 WILL SUPPORT PERSISTENCE OF SHOWERS, PARTICULARLY DURING THE AFTERNOON WHEN THE ARRIVAL OF COLDER AIR AND DIURNAL HEATING WILL STEEPEN BOUNDARY LAYER LAPSE RATES.
HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT CONTROLLING THE AREA WEATHER THROUGH A GOOD PART OF THE WEEK.
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFFSHORE WILL CONTINUE HEADING SOUTHEAST.
EXPECT LIGHT SNOW TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS OVER THE FOOTHILLS AND DROP INTO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OVERNIGHT. LOWERED EVENING PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS TO REFLECT THIS. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MIDWEEK RESULTING IN COLD TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT SNOWFALL FOR OUR REGION. SINCE THE BULK OF THE ENERGY IN THE SPLIT FLOW TROUGH IS DOWN IN THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. THE NORTHERN STREAM OF THE SPLIT TROUGH WILL SPREAD LIGHT SNOW INTO OUR AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST AS WELL.
PER COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES WILL KEEP WINTER STORM HEADLINE GOING UNTIL 12Z EXPIRATION FOR THE SPOTTY FREEZING DRIZZLE AND LIGHT SNOW MOVING OVER THE AREA. NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE DEEPER WITH THE NEARLY SATURATED LOW LAYER WHICH COULD SUGGEST SOME PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE. THOUGH DO EXPECT SOME PATCHY FREEZING FOG.
BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
1241 AM EST TUE DEC 29 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM ILLINOIS TO MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT.
1253 AM EST TUE DEC 29 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDED ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA. A FEW FLURRIES ALSO CONTINUED IN NORTHEASTERN AREAS ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTING NORTH THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN INTO NEW MEXICO AND ARIZONA. AS THE TROUGH ADVANCES EASTWARD TODAY. THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL LIFT QUICKLY NORTHEAST FROM THE TX PANHANDLE INTO NRN MO OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER COLD NIGHT WITH LOWS FROM THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE TO BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE NORTHWEST WHERE LESSER CLOUD COVER EXPECTED TO AROUND 10 ABOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST.
A strong ridge of high pressure will dominate the region by late week and into the weekend promoting strong valley inversions, fog and low clouds, but clearing skies in the mountains. a further update has been issued to broaden out the expected area of continuous but light minor accumulating snow showers compliments of a glacially slow moving upper level trough bringing elevated instability to the eastern third of Washington and the Idaho Panhandle through the rest of tonight.
929 PM PST MON DEC 28 2015 SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT MOVED EAST SOUTHEAST ACROSS PARTS OF THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT EXITS THE REGION.
244 AM MST TUE DEC 29 2015 A FAST MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY.
1133 PM CST MON DEC 28 2015 FOR 06Z TAFS /ISSUED 929 PM CST MON DEC 28 2015/ A SURFACE COLD FRONT--A REAL ONE THIS TIME--CONTINUES MARCHING ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY THIS EVENING, AND IS ROUGHLY BETWEEN MUSCLE SHOALS AND DECATUR AS OF 03Z. HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS HAVE BEEN ADVERTISING SOME STRAY SHOWERS THIS EVENING AHEAD OF THAT TROUGH AXIS IN NORTHEAST ALABAMA AND FRANKLIN CO.
308 AM EST TUE DEC 29 2015 A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS FAR EASTERN KY AS OF 3AM THIS MORNING. THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE TO TRAVERSE THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. THIS WILL PULL THE COLD FRONT WELL EAST OF THE REGION. ALONG WITH THE COOLER WESTERLY FLOW. AS IT HAS BECOME HUNG UP ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN.
THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE IS ON TRACK TO MOVE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH PRECIPITATION MOVING INTO SW OREGON DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL ENTER THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON FROM THE NORTHWEST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE AREA WITH OFFSHORE WINDS DEVELOPING IN THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. FOG AND FREEZING FOG ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT MOST WEST SIDE VALLEYS. TEMPERATURE PROFILES IN THE LOW LAYERS AREN'T TOO MUCH DIFFERENT THAN THE SYSTEM THAT MOVED THROUGH LAST NIGHT BUT PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE SHORTER-LIVED AND ROAD TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER DURING THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION.
AN ELONGATED TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES WITH A LARGE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE WRN PLAINS. THIS WILL LEAD TO THE BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE WED-FRI TIME FRAME AS THE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE AREA BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. KETCHAM RIDGING WILL REMAIN OVER THE ROCKIES INTO THE NEW YEAR AND FOR THE WEEKEND WITH DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. WILL START TO SEE A WARMING TREND BACK TOWARDS SEASONAL NORMS EVEN WITH THE WEAK NORTHERLY FLOW AS THE ROCKIES RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND.
259 AM CST TUE DEC 29 2015 THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS YESTERDAY IS NOW LOCATED NEAR CHICAGO ILLINOIS WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT LINGERING ACROSS EAST TENNESSEE. BOTH THE NAM AND RAP MODELS SHOW THE LOW CLOUDS HANGING AROUND THE MIDSOUTH TODAY AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE TRAPPED UNDERNEATH AN INVERSION.
438 AM EST TUE DEC 29 2015 WARMING TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL CHANGE ANY LINGERING FREEZING RAIN TO PLAIN RAIN NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 BY MID MORNMING.
WINDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. CLEAR SKIES AND DECREASING WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP BELOW FREEZING FOR AREAS NORTH OF A DEL RIO TO NEW BRAUNFELS TO BASTROP LINE.
As the next trough swings through the region Tuesday afternoon, models develop weak isentropic upglide across the NE zones, which may prolong/enhance cigs and reduced vsbys. However, sfc winds should veer to the west behind the trough, drying out the PBL and improving conditions somewhat. However a series of additional upper troughs will continue to swing through the area this week and reinforce the cold wx at the surface.
A WEAK WAVE IN THE NORTH FLOW BEHIND THE PASSING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS INCREASED SNOW SHOWERS OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTH OREGON BLUE MOUNTAIN FOOTHILLS THIS EVENING.
A FRONT STALLED NEAR THE SOUTH CAROLINA BORDER WILL LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION AS A WARM FRONT OVERNIGHT THROUGH THIS MORNING.
AND KMSY SHOULD IMPROVE INTO VFR RANGE BY DAYBREAK AS THE LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO PUSH TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.
THE WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE AREA NOW WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE OUT.
1235 AM EST TUE DEC 29 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT.
IT APPEARS THAT THE LOWEST VISIBILITIES WILL BE OVER CENTRAL OK. THE AREA OF PATCHY FREEZING FOG WAS EXPANDED A LITTLE FROM SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA WHERE LOW-LEVEL HUMIDITIES ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR 100% AND WINDS ALMOST CALM BY MORNING.
413 AM EST TUE DEC 29 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY EAST OF CAPE COD LATER TODAY AND RACE EASTWARD SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA TONIGHT.
/ISSUED 403 PM CST MON DEC 28 2015/ WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING ACROSS THE PANHANDLES THIS AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER LEVEL LOW DEPARTING OVER MISSOURI. AND THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CARVING OUT A PATH ALONG THE WEST COAST. TEMPERATURES DID GET A LITTLE WARMER THAN EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. THOUGH MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE DAY PROGRESSES AND THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES.
345 AM EST TUE DEC 29 2015 A COUPLE OF LINES OF LIGHT ECHOES ON KBYX RADAR ARE ORIENTED SE/NW IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF THE LOWER KEYS. THE LOCAL AREA WILL CONTINUE TO FEEL THE AFFECTS OF THE RESIDENT RIDGE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
SOME PATCHY FREEZING FOG EARLY THIS MORNING MAY RESULT IN A FEW SLICK SPOTS ON AREA ROADWAYS IN ADDITION TO WHAT REMAINS ON THE ROADS FROM THE LAST STORM SYSTEM. A MODEST WARM-UP IS ANTICIPATED BY THE WEEKEND AS SOUTHWEST/SOUTH WINDS RETURN WITH SOME MID- LEVEL RIDGING.
It now appears a large majority of the Bourbeuse River and the lower Meramec River will reach record levels.
220 AM EST TUE DEC 29 2015 A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA TODAY.
MODELS KEEP THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. THOUGH THIS IS MUCH COOLER THAN IT HAS BEEN. THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD FROM THE CENTRAL GULF. QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE ON THE LOW SIDE AS THIS IS A WEAK SYSTEM.
353 AM CST TUE DEC 29 2015 LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE CLOSED UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AND A SURFACE COLD FRONT WAS TRAILING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAIN RANGE AND INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. A SECOND UPPER TROUGH WAS LOCATED ALONG THE WESTERN CONUS. THE DRY AND COOLER AIR HAS FILTERED IN ACROSS THE TN VALLEY. THE COLD FRONT WILL BECOME STALLED JUST EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE PARENT UPPER LOW WEAKENS CONSIDERABLY. AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD SLIGHTLY WESTWARD. THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WEST WILL SHIFT EAST.
350 AM CST TUE DEC 29 2015 A CHANGE IN AIRMASS HAS OCCURRED ACROSS THE REGION BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT HAS MOVED INTO GEORGIA. THIS FRONT WILL BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY AND BEGIN TO MOVE BACK TO THE NORTH AS A TROUGH DIGS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT.
THE TREND CONTINUES TO BE DRIER (STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND LOW LEVEL DRY AIR ADVECTION FROM THE NORTH) WITH MEASURABLE SNOWFALL REMAINING SOUTH OF THE REGION. KEPT THE LOW POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH.
917 PM MST MON DEC 28 2015 HIGH CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER OVERNIGHT WITH ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS DEVELOPING TOWARDS MORNING OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY. BY TUESDAY MORNING THE SPLIT TROUGH WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF DYNAMICS WILL MOVE OVER ERN UT AND WRN CO AS THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA SO HAVE PAINTED A CLOUDY DAY WITH A LOW CHANCE OF PRECIP MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE CLOUDINESS SHOULD RESULT IN A WARMER START IN THE MORNING BUT WILL HOLD BACK HEATING DURING THE DAY. HAVE KEPT THE HIGHER POPS AND CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY AND OVERNIGHT. THE FLOW ON THE WEST SIDE OF THIS TROUGH WILL TURN MORE TO THE NORTH WHICH WILL SHUT OFF MOST OF THE OROGRAPHIC COMPONENT THU.
1024 PM MST MON DEC 28 2015 WEAK MIDLVL RIDGE WAS OVER THE REGION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH WAS MOVING EAST. IT SHOULD BE A BIT COOLER TOMORROW WITH HIGHS BARELY REACHING THE FREEZING MARK OVER THE PLAINS. ONE TO TWO INCHES OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON TIME PERIOD.
MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE AS A BROAD UPPER TROF CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY OVER THE AREA. SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVED ACROSS THE AREA EARLIER AND IS SLOWLY MAKING ITS WAY TOWARD SOUTHWEST MONTANA.
418 AM EST TUE DEC 29 2015 COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER WILL ARRIVE TODAY IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BEHIND A COLD FRONT.
SET UP BETWEEN A DISTURBANCE OVER THE WRN GREAT LAKES AND TROUGHING EXTENDING THROUGH THE WRN CONUS. THE AREA REMAINS INFLUENCED BY LOW PRESSURE OVER WRN WI. ACROSS THE WEST /FURTHER AWAY FROM THE LOW/ WINDS ARE MORE LIGHT/VARIABLE. WHILE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES MORE ESTABLISHED. DRY BUT COLD CONDITIONS WILL SETTLE ONTO THE PLAINS TIL THE END OF THE WORKWEEK IN A TROUGHY WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CONUS.
At 00z Tuesday a 500mb upper level low was located over Illinois, and further west a 500mb trough was observed over southern Nevada/southern California. Over the Central Plains at 00z Tuesday an upper level ridge axis extended from southwest Nebraska to western Oklahoma. A 850mb ridge axis extended from far western Oklahoma into western Nebraska. The 850mb temperatures along this ridge axis ranged from -5c at Dodge City to -8c at North Platte. Lingering low and mid clouds across SW KS this afternoon will gradually erode through this evening, in response to dry subsidence taking over behind the departing cyclone. Trough axis will approach SW KS during the late afternoon, with the primary vort max passing south of us across W TX.
1101 PM MST MON DEC 28 2015 UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM WYOMING SOUTHEAST TO THE TIGHT UPPER LOW OVER MISSOURI WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST OUT OF THE AREA WITH SHORT WAVE RIDGING DEVELOPING OVER THE TRI-STATE AREA OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE BELOW NORMAL IN THE SHORT TERM AS THE STRONG LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER MISSOURI WRAPS A CHUNK OF COLD CANADIAN AIR AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM AND INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.
347 AM CST TUE DEC 29 2015 THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT THE WIDESPREAD WINTER WEATHER TO THE STATE IS RACING TO THE NORTHEAST INTO THE MID GREAT LAKES REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. A RIBBON OF HIGHER THETA-E AIR AROUND 650 MB THAT HAD WRAPPED AROUND THE UPPER LOW. SOME LIGHT SNOW WITH MINOR ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS WILL LINGER OVER THE FAR NORTH THIS MORNING AS A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS BACK WEST NEAR THE IA/MN BORDER WHILE A SHORT WAVE MOVES FROM EAST CENTRAL NEBRASKA INTO NRN IA.
THE STRATUS SHOULD KEEP THE EAST TX LAKES TO CENLA AREA FROM DROPPING BELOW FREEZING, HOWEVER IS CLOUDS CLEAR FOR AN HOUR OR TWO BEFORE SUNRISE THE FREEZING MARK IS POSSIBLE. /ISSUED 358 PM CST MON DEC 28 2015/ MID-AFTERNOON SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE RESPONSIBLE FOR OUR DEPARTING COLD FRONT SITUATED OVER SERN MO MOVING NEWD IN CONCERT WITH ASSOCIATED LOW ALOFT PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. LOOKS LIKE 24 MORE HOURS OF QUIET WEATHER OVER THE REGION AS DRY AIR BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM REMAINS IN PLACE. FORECAST MINS ARE EXPECTED TO RUN A BIT BELOW NORMAL AGAIN TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES EWD INTO THE AREA AND ALLOWS SFC WINDS TO DIE OFF.
A MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL BE SETTING UP OVER THE WESTERN CONUS THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK. THIS IS IN ADVANCE OF A STRONGLY SPLIT UPSTREAM TROUGH WHICH WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE AREA TOMORROW.
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. THIS PRECIP WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER ACROSS THESE AREAS THROUGH TUESDAY AS CYCLONIC FLOW REMAINS ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS WITHIN A DEEP WRN CONUS TROUGH. HIGHS TUE WILL BE COOLER THAN TODAY AS COLDER AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW.
AFTER THE SYSTEM MOVES EASTWARD LATE TUESDAY, COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER WILL SETTLE IN AHEAD OF THE NEXT WINTER SYSTEM FORECAST TO AFFECT THE REGION AROUND THE START OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK. HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE SOUNDINGS AND AWAY FROM PARAMETERIZED PRECIPITATION FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE AIRMASS SHOULD REMAIN COOLER THAN SEASONAL AVERAGES.
230 AM CST TUE DEC 29 2015 The upper low that brought record flooding rainfall and some winter weather to our area the past few days has now rocketed up into the Great Lakes region this morning. Predominant ridging in the surface pattern and boundary layer RH suggest below average temps for highs the next few days. Broad cyclonic flow over the western 2/3rds of the nation will prevail for much of the week before a transition to more of a blocking pattern for the end of the week. The aforementioned blocking pattern for the end of the week will be a dry pattern for us.
A FAST MOVING SYSTEM WILL BRING SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO THE AREA TODAY ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES.
1147 PM EST MON DEC 28 2015 AVIATION A MAJOR WINTER STORM WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN TONIGHT BRINGING FREEZING RAIN.
909 PM PST MON DEC 28 2015 THE SHOWERS WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXITS THE REGION. FAIR SKIES WILL CONTINUE THE REST OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ALOFT WITH BREEZY WINDS AT TIMES. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MOJAVE DESERT. WITH TEMPERATURES ALREADY IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S AND ECHOES ON KEYX RADAR.