Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Major storm off the NW coast will send a warm front northeastward through our CWA tonight with light snow in Oregon and north of the Snake Basin in Idaho. Better chance of pcpn in southern areas Thursday night when the storm's cold front comes in.
1002 AM EST Wed Jan 15 2020 A cold front will move into the area tonight with warm weather expected ahead of the front today.
1243 PM EST Wed Jan 15 2020 Aviation Weak low pressure will bring light snow and rain today.
A warm front has cleared the area to the north and the entire Mid State is back to southerly flow. A cold front will approach this afternoon. Scattered showers will occur through the day, then coverage will increase after 20Z as a cold front approaches. The cold front will pass 00Z-06Z with winds becoming NNW.
Low temps are expected to range in the low to mid 60s across the region.
A cold front, just north of I-20 as of 2 PM, will continue moving south this evening and tonight, bringing significantly cooler temperatures and a chance for precipitation tonight and Thursday.
A cold front is moving through the area which is bringing increasing rain chances. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible this evening across the Lower Trans Pecos due to good moisture and lift from the approaching front.
To accompany the lower cigs, -FZRA is also forecasted to move south to north across the TAF sites and continue past the end of the 18Z TAF period. /Issued 446 AM CST Wed Jan 15 2020/ A cold front currently located across southeast Colorado into southwest Kansas is forecast to move across the OK and TX Panhandles today.
334 PM EST Wed Jan 15 2020 Aviation section updated A weak low pressure system will move across central Indiana this afternoon.
There was a brief period of dense fog with visibilities in the METARs of less than 1/4 mile around Ponca City and Stillwater earlier, but this has improved as the cold front has moved through, and that portion of the Advisory has been canceled. Stratus and fog will continue into the early morning hours ahead of the approaching cold front until winds begin to veer around 12-14Z within prefrontal trough. Breezy north winds will follow the cold front late this morning thru this afternoon over much of OK but speeds will remain below advisory level.
Other than that, the rest of the forecast is on track as a cold front continues to push in.
A warm front has cleared the area to the north and the entire Mid State is back to southerly flow. A cold front will approach this afternoon. RA is expected to develop after 20z as a cold front approaches the Mid State.
Canadian high pressure will settle into the state tonight bringing in much colder air.
926 AM PST Wed Jan 15 2020 Onshore flow will continue today bringing cooler than normal temperatures to the area.
decided to cancel the High Wind Warnings we had out.
A cold front stretched across northeast Oklahoma will continue to push southward, resulting in a north wind shift across all terminals. Other than that, the rest of the forecast is on track as a cold front continues to push in.
In addition, with the low- level moisture in place, a few isolated low-topped showers may advect into the region overnight from the south-southeast.
The highest rain chances are anticipated across the northern portion of the forecast area, with likely PoPs across the far northern tier and progressively diminishing PoPs further south. The stationary frontal boundary finally starts to push south late Thursday morning/afternoon allowing drier/cooler northwesterly flow to push into the area Thu night. The cooler drier airmass moves in Thursday night so we will see low temps getting down into the 30s and 40s across the state.
Low pressure will be moving north in the Pacific towards British Columbia through tonight. While the vast majority of precipitation with the trough/front will remain over the Cascades, there will be enough to make it over on the eastern side and coupled with some upslope flow to bring advisory level snow to the Kittitas Valley, Yakima Valley and Simcoe Highlands.
A weak low pressure system will move across central Indiana this afternoon.
235 PM EST Wed Jan 15 2020 Broad upper level ridging extends through the Gulf of Mexico, over southern Florida then east of the Bahamas.
613 PM CST Wed Jan 15 2020 1040mb arctic high pressure over Alberta will build southeast into the Dakotas and northeast Nebraska and strengthen to around 1045mb by Thursday morning. South winds will draw moisture up the high plains setting the stage for a period of light snow changing to freezing rain Thursday night affecting areas mainly east of highway 83.
Cloudy and cool conditions are expected overnight with cold advection occurring in the wake of a cold frontal passage.
Dry weather is expected as high pressure dominates the area, however frigid wind chills of 25 to 35 below zero will continue.
123 PM PST Wed Jan 15 2020 Onshore flow will continue today bringing cooler than normal temperatures to the area.
Weak high pressure to the east will let winds become light and variable overnight. Low temperatures will drop to the lower to mid 60s but it might not occur early enough to cool down below the warm low records for LEE, SFB and MCO before midnight.
316 PM CST Wed Jan 15 2020 1040mb arctic high pressure over Alberta will build southeast into the Dakotas and northeast Nebraska and strengthen to around 1045mb by Thursday morning. South winds will draw moisture up the high plains setting the stage for a period of light snow changing to freezing rain Thursday night affecting areas mainly east of highway 83.
A mid-level ridge over the Rockies will progress across the Central High Plains Wednesday night into Thursday morning with flow transitioning to southwest aloft over the region. Meanwhile, a deepening upper level trough will move onshore over the Pacific Northwest early Thursday morning. The ridge moving to the east of the forecast region and the trough moving in from the west will aid in transporting moisture from the Gulf and the Pacific up to the Tri-State region.
Within the onshore flow Thursday, will expected isolated streamer shower activity feeding into the approaching cold front. The front will lift back to the north on Thursday night, but lifting from a weak coastal trough will keep rain chances through the night.
MA Chattanooga Airport, TN 51 58 34 51 40 / 70 0 0 10 50 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 48 55 31 49 40 / 60 0 0 10 30 Oak Ridge, TN 46 54 30 48 39 / 60 0 0 10 40 Tri Cities Airport, TN 45 52 26 47 35 / 60 0 0 10 30.
Arctic high pressure moves in for a brief period on Thursday behind the departing disturbance that brought a few inches of snow in northern Minnesota today. The good news is that we will likely see a good deal of sunshine as subsidence remains strong underneath high pressure moving eastwards.
202 PM MST Wed Jan 15 2020 After another day of above normal temperatures today, a weak weather system will bring cooler conditions and increased cloudiness on Thursday.
Most of the models suggesting teens for overnight lows most every where, and not quite as cold in the low 20s along the Oklahoma line.
606 PM CST Wed Jan 15 2020 /00Z TAFS/ The cold front has reached San Angelo, and extended across the central part of our forecast area early this evening.
A weak cold front is still expected to reach the area Thursday night, but not everyone across the area will be experiencing it. This will result in Thursday night's lows either being about ten degrees cooler compared to tonight if you are in Houston County, or around the same temperature if you are in Matagorda County.
Thursday, a ridge of high pressure will quickly pass through the region, which will allow temperatures to climb back up above zero for the first time in more than 3 days.
Much drier air is working its way southward behind a passing cold front this afternoon as dewpoints/temps are falling into the 20s and upper 20s respectively. A very cold 1050 mb ridge axis is anticipated to drop southward by sunrise Thursday, carrying temps down into the single digits near the Kansas and Nebraska border, increasing to the middle teens along and south of Interstate 70. The strong upper trough axis enters the western CONUS tomorrow, beginning to increase Gulf moisture northward ahead of the system. Our region is under the influence of the ridge as sfc winds veer to the east in the afternoon.
222 PM MST Wed Jan 15 2020 Building upper ridge will bring dry and warmer weather to our region over the next 36 hours. "warmer" in the relative sense as the lower valleys will stay sheltered and colder than the foothills and ridges. Pacific trof will move inland and bring a chance of snow to our southwest mountains by Thursday night.
Several locations across the northern tier of the CWA are at or below forecast lows, while some locations along the southern border are significantly warmer and not expected to cool off quite as much as originally anticipated. Gilstad Building upper ridge will bring dry and warmer weather to our region over the next 36 hours. "warmer" in the relative sense as the lower valleys will stay sheltered and colder than the foothills and ridges. Pacific trof will move inland and bring a chance of snow to our southwest mountains by Thursday night.
507 PM CST Wed Jan 15 2020 Colder air will push into the area tonight behind a cold front that moved through the area today.
A ridge of high pressure extends from the Atlantic into the southeast states while a cold front stretches from the Ohio Valley to north Texas. Between these systems a warm and moist air mass continues to move over cooler gulf shelf waters into SE TX and South LA. Thursday, the aforementioned cold front will drift into the region then into the coastal waters and stall by Thursday night as it moves into the ridge.
The snow/ice impact to area roadways should diminish a bit Thursday afternoon, with temperatures warming above freezing at many valley locations.
336 PM CST Wed Jan 15 2020 Colder air will push into the area tonight behind a cold front that moved through the area today.
Short term hi-res guidance indicates some potential for MVFR cigs to develop and spread south and west from NW AR to SE OK behind a cold front this evening. /Issued 324 PM CST Wed Jan 15 2020/ Cold front was located near KMLC-KFYV at 3 pm, with colder air still lagging well behind across northern Kansas. Thermal profiles remain well within the range of all liquid precip, with sfc temps expected to be above freezing by the onset of precip.
Cold front, across central AR attm, will continue to push south through the state the evening.
The fog should dissipate around 15Z but IFR ceilings will continue through the afternoon as a cold front moves through the area. A ridge of high pressure extends from the Atlantic into the southeast states while a cold front stretches from the Ohio Valley to north Texas. Between these systems a warm and moist air mass continues to move over cooler gulf shelf waters into SE TX and South LA. Thursday, the aforementioned cold front will drift into the region then into the coastal waters and stall by Thursday night as it moves into the ridge.
324 PM CST Wed Jan 15 2020 Cold front was located near KMLC-KFYV at 3 pm, with colder air still lagging well behind across northern Kansas. Thermal profiles remain well within the range of all liquid precip, with sfc temps expected to be above freezing by the onset of precip.
412 PM MST Wed Jan 15 2020 Water vapor shows relatively flat upper ridge building into the northern rockies with next trof just offshore the Pac NW. Upper ridge builds eastward into the northern plains on Thursday with warm advection pushing temps well into the 40s across northeast WY, the Black Hills, and southwest SD.
Nevertheless, warm air advection has pushed temps near 70 in northwest AL with mid 60s elsewhere, along with dew points in the lower 60s. As the cold front pushes southeast from MO this evening, expect convergence to increase as weak impulses move east at 7-5h through the region. Successive runs of the HRRR suggest scattered thunderstorm development within the ridge of higher CAPE in western TN and north MS before 00Z, with storm motions carrying this east through southern TN and north AL. By 09Z, the cold front and storm threat will shift southeast of our area, with brisk north flow and cold/dry advection moving in.
A breezy night is in store for the region in the wake of a cold front that moved through the area. Overnight lows will drop into the lower 20s across central Missouri to around 30 along the Arkansas border, where more clearing will take place. Expect highs on Thursday to range from the middle 30s over central Missouri to the lower to middle 40s near the Arkansas border.
1039 PM EST Wed Jan 15 2020 Very strong mid-level high pressure is centered over the southeast Gulf this evening. The 00z KEY sounding observed the 500 mb height at 5910 meters, indicating just how very strong this area of high pressure is.
1026 PM MST Wed Jan 15 2020 Water vapor shows relatively flat upper ridge building into the northern rockies with next trof just offshore the Pac NW. Upper ridge builds eastward into the northern plains on Thursday with warm advection pushing temps well into the 40s across northeast WY, the Black Hills, and southwest SD.
121 AM EST Thu Jan 16 2020 Crossing low pressure will provide rain chances this evening, with a change to snow showers for late tonight and Thursday.
Currently watching a cold front move through the area as rain quickly slides south and east this morning. Most locations will be at above freezing, with mid to upper 30s in the north and northeast, and 40s elsewhere.
Cold front moving southward will bring cooler and drier air to the area during the midday and afternoon hours.
The cold upper level trough off the west coast will generate an increasingly strong and mild southwest flow as it advances east towards the Great Basin Thursday.
1126 PM CST Wed Jan 15 2020 1040mb arctic high pressure over Alberta will build southeast into the Dakotas and northeast Nebraska and strengthen to around 1045mb by Thursday morning. South winds will draw moisture up the high plains setting the stage for a period of light snow changing to freezing rain Thursday night affecting areas mainly east of highway 83.
1005 PM CST Wed Jan 15 2020 Cold front is currently pushing through north central Mississippi.
A cold front is marching across Middle Tennessee early this evening, with showers lined up along the front and scattered cells ahead. Wind shift across the surface boundary is quite abrupt, and so we can expect much cooler, drier air to begin advecting in rather quickly.
Showers and any embedded thunderstorms will shift east of all TAF sites by 08z at the latest as a cold front moves through. CD Chattanooga Airport, TN 58 34 51 40 54 / 0 0 10 50 90 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 55 31 49 40 53 / 0 0 10 30 90 Oak Ridge, TN 54 30 48 39 52 / 0 0 10 40 90 Tri Cities Airport, TN 52 26 47 35 50 / 0 0 10 30 90.
133 AM CST Thu Jan 16 2020 The cold front has cleared the Mid State with the last lingering showers exiting the southeast part of the area. We should see some breaks in the low cloud deck during the afternoon hours before more clouds work in this evening. North winds at 10-15 mph will make it seem even cooler.
1157 PM CST Wed Jan 15 2020 A cold front is progressing south late this evening.
237 AM EST Thu Jan 16 2020 High pressure will hold over the Florida peninsula today with continued warm humid conditions across west central and southwest Florida. A backdoor cold front will push across the region tonight with drier slightly cooler air advecting over the area, however temperatures will remain above climatic normals.
MVFR cigs behind a cold front should scatter out at all sites by 10Z or so, leaving a high cloud overcast prevailing.
312 AM EST Thu Jan 16 2020 Current surface analysis reveals breezy and seasonably cool conditions across southern Indiana and central Kentucky in the wake of a cold front. Afternoon highs will only make it into the low and mid 40s for many locations given the clouds and CAA in the wake of the cold front. Winds will remain light out of the northeast as Canadian high pressure drifts over the Great Lakes region.
/issued 1005 PM CST Wed Jan 15 2020/ Cold front is currently pushing through north central Mississippi.
The fog is expected to dissipate around 15Z when a surface cold front will begin moving through the area. A ridge of high pressure extends from the Atlantic into the southeast states while a cold front stretches from the Ohio Valley to north Texas. Between these systems a warm and moist air mass continues to move over cooler gulf shelf waters into SE TX and South LA. Thursday, the aforementioned cold front will drift into the region then into the coastal waters and stall by Thursday night as it moves into the ridge.
The main area of precipitation is along the cold front while a few showers have developed across the northern half of the forecast area in the region of warm- advection ahead of the cold front. The cold front will move into interior NorCal this morning accompanied by a band of moderate to heavy precipitation which may result in ponding of water on road surfaces. Precipitation becomes showery late tonight with chances retreating to the northern mountains on Friday as broad ridging moves back into the area.
Currently watching a cold front move through the area as rain quickly slides south and east this morning. Most locations will be at above freezing, with mid to upper 30s in the north and northeast, and 40s elsewhere. Ridging builds across the region Friday, which will provide for subsidence across Central AL, keeping the area rain-free for much of the day.
334 AM MST Thu Jan 16 2020 Gusty winds and warming temperatures today ahead of a sharp cold front expected to pass late tonight into tomorrow morning.
will be squeezed out in the form of rain and freezing rain. The deepest/coldest air will be in place later this morning across the northern South Plains and Rolling Plains making this where the majority of the freezing rain is expected. With such a shallow cold layer at the surface, the surface will have a harder time cooling below freezing from both cold air advection or wet-bulb making large accumulations harder to come by. Mid level WAA will begin this afternoon turning the freezing rain to liquid through tomorrow. Given the marginal freezing temperatures tonight there is a chance that the precipitation type could once again become a mix of rain and freezing rain.
Temperatures remain sub-zero across much of the region although arctic airmass is beginning to shallow over the southwest zones, with some ridge top or downslope locations seeing readings above zero. Airmass will continue to warm today as an upper ridge builds over the state. Upper trof will push a front across the region on Friday. Colder air will linger through the weekend before rebounding ridge again brings warmer air into eastern Montana.
The cold front has cleared the Mid State with the last lingering showers exiting the southeast part of the area. We should see some breaks in the low cloud deck during the afternoon hours before more clouds work in this evening. North winds at 10-15 mph will make it seem even cooler.
Today will be a dry day over the area with warmer high temperatures in most places. There will be some light snow east of the divide as the cold front blows through but amounts will be fairly light.
While mid level flow remains mostly zonal, ridging over the Plains has been sufficient to give the boundary a southward nudge helping gravity pull the denser airmass to the south. While the lower levels dry out this afternoon into tonight, mid level flow will continue to pull in moisture aloft in weak ascent. The short lived upper ridging over the SE US will begin to lose its influence over the region during the day on Friday as an upper trough crosses the Plains and approaches the MS River Valley. Return flow from the Gulf will have developed at the surface by Friday evening as SW flow develops in the upper levels ahead of the approaching upper trough.
/issued 327 AM CST Thu Jan 16 2020/ SHORT TERM (Now through Friday): Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley are expected to remain on the periphery of both high pressure at the surface and in the middle layers of the atmosphere during the period.
As for precipitation type, most models and corresponding ensemble members have been consistent in depicting a warm layer aloft, indicating a mix of light rain and light freezing rain. 15 inch range for the period 12Z this morning through 12Z Friday, with the highest totals in the eastern third of the area and lowest amounts across the far western zones. Due to the wet-bulbing process at the onset of this event, precipitation may intially begin as a mixture of light freezing rain, light sleet, and light snow this morning before changing to all light freezing rain and light rain this afternoon and tonight.
651 AM EST Thu Jan 16 2020 High pressure will build into the area through Friday and then move off to the east.
High pressure will build into the area tonight and bring dry weather for Friday. Cold front just entering the western end of the forecast area. Balance of the day will feature deep instability (for winter) and increasing winds as the low deepens to the east and a 1042mb high builds over the western lakes. Expect a slow weakening of the snow showers overnight as the flow becomes more northerly and the high builds east.
As we have seen over the past week, temperatures will once again soar well above average topping out in the low to mid 80's. The low clouds and FG that were being reported early this morning has lifted.
With surface temperatures at or just slightly below freezing, a wintry mix will be possible. The warm nose will come in strong, so most locations will either see rain or some freezing rain. Overall frozen precipitation amounts will remain on the light side, with just one tenth of an inch or less in freezing rain accumulations.
Periods of light freezing rain are also anticipated later today and continuing through much of this evening and tonight before diminishing towards the end of this fcst. As for precipitation type, most models and corresponding ensemble members have been consistent in depicting a warm layer aloft, indicating a mix of light rain and light freezing rain. 15 inch range for the period 12Z this morning through 12Z Friday, with the highest totals in the eastern third of the area and lowest amounts across the far western zones. Due to the wet-bulbing process at the onset of this event, precipitation may intially begin as a mixture of light freezing rain, light sleet, and light snow this morning before changing to all light freezing rain and light rain this afternoon and tonight.
330 AM CST Thu Jan 16 2020 A surface cold front has pushed through the Mid-South and is currently draped across Central MS. The drier cooler air has been slow to pool into the region keeping temperatures in the 50s northward and mid 60s south. High pressure will begin to build into the region today allowing drier and cooler conditions to prevail across the Mid-South. Upper ridging will become more amplified in response to a developing upper trough across the western CONUS. At the surface, high pressure will begin to shift to the east Thursday night. In response, southerly flow will return to the Mid- South on Friday ahead of an approaching cold front.
Arctic high pressure over the region this morning is producing bitterly cold temperatures with many locations in the teens below zero. Low level moisture will move into the eastern CWA during the morning hours on Friday with patchy freezing drizzle possible. The higher amounts should occur in western MN.
Based on consistent models and their ensembles, we feel confident in a robust trough moving across our CWA Friday. The high country will likely see a few inches as the system moves through Friday.