Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Latest rap and satellite imagery showed a short wave trough moving over the Southern Plains. Meanwhile broad mid to upper ridging continued over the ArkLaMiss with west southwest flow aloft. Area radar pick up an expansive area of showers developing southward over the forecast area with a slow moving cold front drifting south through the CWA.
In addition, it will be sunny and afternoon high temperatures should be back to around 50 or into the lower 50s, making for a great day. the air is still rather dry so we will cool off quickly after sunset and should bottom out into the lower to mid 20s.
Increasing north to northwest winds in the low level cyclonic flow were pulling down temperatures into the 30s into IA, while 40s found over west central IL. The 3 am observation out of Sterling was reporting snow, but with temperatures still well above freezing, will anticipate only a quick, light coating of wet snow possible before the band pushes eastward before sunrise.
Highs today will be in the lower to mid 50s, with lower 30s for tonight as south winds will tend to keep temperatures from bottoming out.
A cold front generally located along a line from KBBG/KFSM/KAQR just before 12Z will continue moving southward through the morning. Clear skies and light winds after 00-02Z as high pressure settles in overnight.
1027 AM EST Thu Mar 1 2018 A warm front over the north Midlands late this morning will move north of the SC border early this afternoon. A cold front will move through late this afternoon and evening providing a chance of showers and a few thunderstorms ahead of it. Warm and breezy conditions expected to develop ahead of the cold front.
(previous) The surface cold front is progged to reach the northern Lake/Volusia around 12Z Friday with a small chance (20-30 percent) for prefrontal showers from Kissimmee and Cape Canaveral northward after 3-4 AM. Patchy fog possible across southern terminals (VRB/FPR/SUA) aft 06Z with some IFR stratus across the remaining terminals ahead of a cold front. SW flow ahead of the approaching strong cold front will increase to near 15 mph with gusts up to 24 mph this afternoon.
/issued 311 AM EST Thu Mar 1 2018/ Second wave of sustained moderate to occasionally heavy rainfall has moved north of the area as warm frontal boundary continues to lift. Clearing and cooler for the remainder of the short term period with highs Friday only in the 50s.
Chances of showers and isolated storms will increase across our northwestern areas later this afternoon as a cold front approaches our area; increased PoPs in these areas to the 60-80% range as confidence has increased. High temperatures should reach the lower-mid 80s inland with upper 70s along the Gulf coast.
530 AM CST Thu Mar 1 2018 A cold front was in the process of moving southeast across the Missouri Ozarks during the predawn hours. Brisk and gusty north winds will usher in a cooler and eventually drier air mass today. Highs over most areas should be in the lower to middle 50s.
Simultaneously, a surface cold front will push through the Mid- South through late afternoon.
Low pressure over east central Illinois will move east across Indiana by midday as trailing cold front pushes east across our region. Gusty winds will occur behind the cold front late today and this evening. High pressure over the upper midwest will build southeast across our region Friday through the weekend.
MVFR to IFR cigs continuing this morning for eastern sites will improve to VFR by mid to late morning after a cold frontal passage. A cold front will move through this morning, with just a slight chance of showers in the vicinity of the front, mainly in the Victoria Crossroads region. High temperatures today will be 10 to 15 degrees cooler than yesterday. Lows tonight will fall into the lower to mid 50s.
Temperatures are expected to remain cooler than normal. Thus, while morning commuters may encounter some slick spots on the higher terrain this morning, this does not look like anything out of the ordinary for a moderately stormy winter morning at 47 north latitude. /Fugazzi 12Z TAFS: A warm front laying from KEAT to KLWS at 12Z will move north and stall over the northern Columbia Basin today before a cold occluded front laying along the cascades at 12Z pushes east through the forecast area today. The triple point of these fronts will cross the Columbia Basin today bringing widespread MVFR and occasional IFR ceilings in -RA to the lower elevation stations of KEAT and KMWH. The higher elevation TAF sites of KGEG. -SHSN is possible behind the front tonight over the higher terrain of the eastern Columbia Basin and the Idaho Panhandle.
Cold front has pushed through western AR and skies will continue to clear from NW - SE through the afternoon.
VFR conds wl return by tngt as high pressure blds into the region. Hi-Res model data cont to show that the primary area of rain wl gradually dcrs fm the west later this mrng as an upr lvl trof moves into the region.
A broad closed low pressure system is forecast to move southward along the Washington coast today, while an associated warm frontal feature is expected to move through north- central Idaho and western Montana. Dry air currently in place in much of north-central Idaho and western Montana will leave most with little if any precipitation today and warmer temperatures. Tonight's disturbance is still most likely to bring the highest concentration of moderate and even periods of heavy showers to Lemhi County, Idaho and into southwest Montana. A very broad area of low pressure will encompass most of the western United States through the weekend. As a result, moisture wrapping around the low will eject northward into western Montana and central Idaho, however trying to time this moisture and predict the exact placement of it has been proving to be very tricky.
Also chose to cut back the area of expected freezing fog for the rest of this morning given are visibility observations. BMickelson Previous discussion: Upper level ridge will be over Eastern Montana today which will allow for dry weather and clear to partly cloudy skies. Flow aloft turns to the southwest tonight as ridge moves to the east and upper low moves inland across the Pacific Northwest.
/issued 300 AM CST Thu Mar 1 2018/ As of 3 am the front has pushed south of Lubbock and highs today will be around 10 degrees cooler than yesterday, in the upper 50s to low 60s.
The near normal temps will be short lived, as ridging in the mid levels moves over the top of plains for Fri into Sat, with lee troffing along the front of the Rockies increasing the pressure gradient across central KS on Fri and across the whole area on Sat.
302 AM MST Thu Mar 1 2018 Upper level ridge will be over Eastern Montana today which will allow for dry weather and clear to partly cloudy skies. Flow aloft turns to the southwest tonight as ridge moves to the east and upper low moves inland across the Pacific Northwest.
432 AM CST Thu Mar 1 2018 The large band of storms that developed along the pre-frontal trof over N/NC TX has all but dissipated as it is currently moving into SE TX so far this morning. However, some isolated/widely scattered showers will still be possible as the cold front itself moves into the area later this morning. Skies should be clearing through this afternoon as a drier/slightly cooler airmass filters down from the southern Plains. Some weak ridging aloft is also progged for this time frame. And as such, have trended and prolonged the mention of POPS through Tues, given the timing of the passage of this next cold front. (!!!) 41 Moderate onshore flow early this morning should become more southwesterly as a cold front moves off the coast.
633 AM EST Thu Mar 1 2018 A warm front will slowly shift north through our area this morning. A cold front will move through late this afternoon and evening providing a chance of showers and a few thunderstorms ahead of it. Warm and breezy conditions expected to develop ahead of the cold front.
540 AM CST Thu Mar 1 2018 Water vapor imagery early today showed a northern stream trough coming out of the northern plains with another trough across the southern plains. Drying will occur through the day with the passage of the upper trough as skies clear from the west. With the ridge axis nearing the Mississippi River and moist ground from snow melt, will have to watch for fog formation during the early morning hours on Friday.
High pressure over the Plains will shift east across the area today, with mostly sunny skies and seasonably mild temperatures expected. Mostly clear skies are expected tonight, although some patchy fog will likely occur given high pressure overhead and some increased boundary layer moisture due to melting that will occur during the day today.
A breezy and warm day is on tap across the tri-state area ahead of an approaching cold front. Expect temperatures to reach well into the lower to mid 80s this afternoon as winds gust up to around 30 mph.
This high moves east tonight and allows for breezy southeast winds to develop - mainly over the western CWA. High pressure will be east of the region Friday morning, with a tight pressure gradient between it and low pressure to the west likely resulting in breezy to windy conditions.
A steady increase of southwest winds will occur as the morning progresses as the pressure gradient strengthens with the encroaching cold front. Temperatures will warm into the low/mid 80s, with the warmest focused toward the St. Temperatures will near record high values today under warm air advection with highs in the low/mid 80s. Prevailing VFR expected with windy SW flow increasing this morning with some gusts between 25-35 kts at times this late morning and afternoon ahead of approaching cold front. Offshore flow will increase today ahead of a strong cold front with SCEC conditions over the outer waters. High pressure will build northwest of the region Friday then north of the region this weekend with a return of onshore flow.
Louis at 09z with the cold front extending southwest through the metro area and into south central MO. The low and cold front will then track quickly east through the Ohio Valley during the remainder of the day. Weak large scale ascent associated with the mobile short wave trof and low-mid level frontogenesis will support some scattered/spotty rain showers in the post-frontal air mass across eastern MO into IL during the morning hours. Low level RH progs indicate the low clouds/stratus will clear to the east this afternoon with gusty northwest winds continuing. High pressure then builds into the area tonight and dry and tranquil conditions are expected.
334 AM MST Thu Mar 1 2018 An upper level ridge will be over the area today, with a weak disturbance moving across the state tonight.
Precip continuing through the first half of the day until the cold front gets all the way through the state.
As the upper trough and front continue off to the east, upper ridging will take its place. Temperatures will be a little cooler than we have seen, but still above normal through the weekend with highs in the mid 50s to low 60s.
Another strong short wave will move across the region alter this morning, and combined with a much cooler air mass with 850 MB temperatures dropping below -30 C, some very intense showers are possible today.
Surface wise, A ridge of high pressure lies across our county warning area and well into the Gulf of Mexico and the Sunshine State. With the very close proximity of a strong and deep anticyclone, strong mid and upper level subsidence along with scant moisture will preclude any shower activity. Light winds and resplendent sunshine will allow high temperatures to climb into the lower to mid 80s.
424 AM MST Thu Mar 1 2018 Current surface map places weak high pressure across western South Dakota. Upper level ridge builds across the northern plains today as upper low approaches the Pacific Northwest.
Atlantic high pressure reaching across FL to the Gulf of Mexico eases southward with southerly low level flow shifting to southwesterly in the afternoon and enhanced by a sea breeze. High pressure ridging across the waters eases southward today with south or southwest winds of 15 knots or less. The high pressure slips south of FL Fri as a front moves into the area with veering and increasing winds.
Winds will be from the northwest in the wake of the cold front with gusts of 15 to 20 knots. Latest rap and satellite imagery showed a short wave trough moving over the Southern Plains. Meanwhile broad mid to upper ridging continued over the ArkLaMiss with west southwest flow aloft. Area radar pick up an expansive area of showers developing southward over the forecast area with a slow moving cold front drifting south through the CWA.
Once the lower clouds move out later this morning, expect VFR conditions through the rest of the TAF period. The southern trend of the low continues.
Otherwise, a cold front is on the doorstep of the DFW Metroplex and its associated northerly wind shift is imminent.
Precipitation now falling over nearly all of the CWA as a Pacific Cold front makes its way across the north state. Stronger winds should continue to track farther south as the cold front progresses so wind advisory still looks on track. Main cold front shifts into the northern Sierra this evening with winds expected to decrease slowly behind the front overnight. Heavy snowfall will continue tonight over the Sierra Cascade range as this first cold front moves through.
508 AM CST Thu Mar 1 2018 12Z TAF issuance VFR conditions will prevail as a cold front moves through this morning. After that will have brief upper ridging as the next upper low spinning off the NW coast moves ashore Friday.
March will start on a dry and relatively mild note with a progressive ridge aloft moving to our east and our flow aloft turning southwest. Expect a decent warming trend as the flow aloft remains southwest and strengthens, producing more surface lee troughing.
Early this morning the positive tilt upper level trough was located from southeast IA, southwest into north TX. The ascent ahead of this upper trough has moved east across the mid MS river valley, then extended southwest into east TX. The surface cold front has pushed southeast of KS and the isentropic downglide and CAA have cleared skies across much of the CWA. The low stratus across east central KS will push southeast of the CWA by sunrise. An upper level ridge across the west central US will move east across the central and southern plains Today and Tonight. An intense upper level low will begin to dig southeast onto the Pacific northwest coast late Tonight. Expect mostly sunny skies and cooler temperatures with highs reaching the lower to mid 50s.
Current observations very close to yesterday at this time in the lower 70s, or 20-25 degrees above the norm. Cold front now positioned across northern Louisiana then arcing southwest through central Texas. Dry and cooler conditions then follow for the remainder of the week.
Hi-Res model data cont to show that the primary area of rain wl gradually dcrs fm the west later this mrng as an upr lvl trof moves into the region.
511 AM EST Thu Mar 1 2018 Currently - The western ridge of the Atlantic high is settling downwards across the Bahamas and the Florida Keys this morning. The weak flow is sufficient to keep island temperatures from falling too far into the lower 70s. Forecast - The nearby ridge axis will retreat eastwards into the Atlantic over the next 24 hours as a large mid latitude system moves eastwards off of North America. Initially, high pressure building down the eastern United States into the Gulf of Mexico and day time heating over the peninsula will produce a subtle west to northwest wind surge off of Florida's southwest coast. The high will then build further southeastwards across Florida while the previously mentioned low expands into a rather large cyclone in the Atlantic.
By this afternoon, colder air aloft moves over the area combined with strong forcing will favor the development of showers and a slight chance of thundershowers along the cold front. The cold front will move through eastern OR this evening and into Idaho after midnight. Heavy rain, snow, graupel and thunder are possible with the passage of the cold front. Showers will taper off behind the cold front with clearing on Friday afternoon.
Tonight and Thursday Forecast concerns include whether or not a widespread frost will develop over the Fox Valley/lakeshore areas late tonight, minor potential for lake-effect showers near Door county tomorrow morning, and precipitation timing with the incoming low pressure system tomorrow. Weak high pressure will move across eastern WI this evening, then shift east later tonight into Thursday morning.
Light offshore winds should be shifting to the SW/S overnight through tomorrow with the high moving off to the east.
Dry and above normal temps are expected Thursday as CWA will be ahead of the next approaching cold front. A cold front will move through the area Thur night and dry weather is expected during the day.
Current hourly temps running a few degrees cooler than forecast, and dwpts coming up slowly. Think we will get a land breeze to develop near the coast with water temperatures 15 to 20 degrees cooler than expected land temps late in the night. A land breeze will quite frequently drop CRP specifically several degrees cooler than anticipated, and often cooler than surrounding areas.
6pm Update: Forecast is on track with the cold front pushing through the region this evening. A weak cold front is moving east through the CWA with temperatures in the 70s out ahead of it, with 60s behind it.
Of note, some of the higher resolution models DO want to bring showers farther south and west especially as the cold front drops through eastern Idaho. It will be about 10 degrees cooler, but it'll feel more than that thanks to the breeze.
/issued 626 PM CDT Wed Oct 25 2017/ Upper trough making its way east of the area through the Ohio River Valley area toward the Northeast.
Strong upper level ridge remains in place with east winds indicating similar to yesterday. An upper level trough and associated surface frontal system is moving down the PacNW coast this afternoon.
Precipitation stays well north of the low track. But the main show comes as precipitation north of the low wraps back west around the low and drops south. but how low will vbsy go in the high wind area for blizzard conditions? That is the main unknown. Warmer air temps, warm ground temps, and an early season system lead to lower confidence in the magnitude of this winter weather impact. The main question will be how quickly the below freezing low level airmass advects into the region (changing rain to snow). NAM typically does better, and does show this airmass advecting in quicker (more snow), while the ECMWF/CMC are warmer for longer (less snow).
To our west, a warm front was located over eastern South Dakota and eastern Nebraska. For tonight, a warm front aloft will move across the region. On Thursday, a low pressure, currently over Saskatchewan, will deepen as it moves southeast toward the Upper Mississippi River Valley. The surface warm front will move into areas along and south of Interstate 90. Elsewhere, high temperatures will be in the lower and mid 50s.
Currently, an upper level trough extended from Hudson Bay through the Great Lakes to the Gulf Coast, with a broad ridge was well- established over the Rockies. At the surface, low pressure was located over southern Saskatchewan with a cold front extending west along the international border. Rain and snow showers are forecast to develop, mainly north of the low. Considering the strong cold advection, along with being the favored area for additions by the fall-rise couplet, we have decided to upgrade the high wind watch to a high wind warning.
907 PM PDT Wed Oct 25 2017 Modest cooling is anticipated during the second half of the week as high pressure weakens, but temperatures will remain above average.
621 PM CDT Wed Oct 25 2017 A strong cold front will cross the area late tonight, with very windy conditions behind the front Thursday. Readings by late afternoon will be near freezing by late afternoon across far northwest Nebraska, and falling into and through the 30s elsewhere.
910 PM EDT Wed Oct 25 2017 No sig WX overnight as high pressure over the GOMex maintains a brisk NW flow over the region that will tap a very dry and stable airmass.
1154 PM EDT Wed Oct 25 2017 A ridge of high pressure will maintain VFR conditions as the last of sct-bkn clouds in the 5-7kft layer exit to the east early. Cirrus will then increase Thursday into Thursday night as low pressure over the upper Mississippi Valley comes together. Reprieve from highly amplified upper level pattern is occuring across the central Great Lakes region this afternoon, a consequence of favorable timing between subsequent full latitude troughs. The lake aggregate trough is a hydrostatic surface reflection of lower static stability still in place over the greater Lake Huron basin. Narrative tonight will be clearing and much cooler temperatures than the area has been acclimated to. Lows tonight are expected to drop subfreezing in most areas, the likely exception being the Detroit Metro area.
724 PM EDT Wed Oct 25 2017 Clearing skies and light winds will allow temperatures to fall into the low 30s tonight with widespread frost.
Very strong and gusty north winds will prevail immediately in wake of the cold frontal passage, with gusts likely reaching or exceeding 40-45 mph, especially across central KS. Despite strong cold advection continuing Thu night, continued stout northwest winds should keep the boundary layer mixed enough to prevent temperatures from plummeting, although MOS guidance is trending a tad cooler.
Light south-southwesterly winds are helping keep temperatures from falling too rapidly this evening, and will allow low temperatures to remain 10 to 15 degrees warmer than this mornings chilly temperatures.
537 PM MDT Wed Oct 25 2017 Upper ridge covers the western CONUS, and a deep trough continues to dig into the east coast. Strong upper wave will push into the northern plains tonight with a cold front, bringing strong winds and some rain/snow showers.
Several locations are already 4 to 6 degrees cooler compared to last night attm. Otherwise we'll continue with high pressure refocusing in the eastern Pacific and additional troughing digging into the northern and central Plains.
Temperatures this afternoon push into the 70s with lows tonight towards the upper 40s as southerly flow continues ahead of an approaching cold front. Models are in good agreement that the cold front will be across central Kansas Thursday morning, with the front almost entirely through the area by mid-afternoon. By Thursday evening, any tender plants or vegetation should be brought inside, as the first in a series of cold overnight lows below freezing starts Thursday overnight.
Upper trough is finally slipping off to the east with clouds moving out and clear skies on the way in. While there will still be some high clouds, we will maintain VFR flight rules for this TAF cycle as high pressure takes over across the region.
On Thursday the high will weaken its grip and cool temperatures to above normal for the rest of the week. Expecting it to be about 5-10 degrees cooler at Dodger Stadium at first pitch this afternoon. As stated before, the heat is a result of the abnormally high pressure over the state coupled with the Santa Ana winds which effectively turn off the natural air conditioning from the sea breeze. The lowering heights will bring gradual cooling to the entire area and the weakening offshore flow will bring more cooling to the coastal sections.