Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
229 PM MST Tue Aug 4 2020 High pressure will persist across the Desert Southwest this week resulting in a continuation of above to well above normal temperatures and dry conditions. Daily high temperatures across the lower deserts will mostly range from 107 to 112 degrees for most of the period. Early afternoon satellite imagery indicated a swath of mid-upper level Sc-Cu clouds lifting north from Sonora into south-southwest and S-central AZ with a NW MX-S CA trough disturbance. The CA dry trough anomaly will expand a bit inland but not move much for the remainder of the week and bring dry southwesterly flow across the region with the high remaining to the east over TX and the W Plains.
Lows overnight will remain near normal values in the 50s and 60s, but slightly warmer and more humid air returns for Wednesday. Warmer and more humid air returns to the region late in the week and through the weekend as the region is under the influence of quasi- zonal flow with upper ridging in the South.
After that, quiet conditions anticipated through the morning hours with lows in the low-mid 70s.
403 PM CDT Tue Aug 4 2020 For tonight, another round of showers and thunderstorms is expected to develop across the higher terrain of southeast Colorado and eastern New Mexico, then track southeast into the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles this evening and tonight courtesy of the continuing northwest flow aloft resulting from upper level ridging across the southwest states and upper level troffing in the eastern states.
247 PM PDT Tue Aug 4 2020 Temperatures will trend downward through the middle of the week as high pressure gives way to a couple of passing low pressure systems.
Building high pressure will then return sunshine and seasonably cooler temperature Wednesday through late week. Shower coverage is decreasing as instability wanes, although a few showers will continue through the night until the passage of the mid-level trough axis. As cooler air advects in overnight, temperatures will fall to near or just below seasonable levels.
High pressure will persist across the Desert Southwest this week resulting in a continuation of above to well above normal temperatures and dry conditions. Daily high temperatures across the lower deserts will mostly range from 107 to 112 degrees for most of the period. Early afternoon satellite imagery indicated a swath of mid-upper level Sc-Cu clouds lifting north from Sonora into south-southwest and S-central AZ with a NW MX-S CA trough disturbance. The CA dry trough anomaly will expand a bit inland but not move much for the remainder of the week and bring dry southwesterly flow across the region with the high remaining to the east over TX and the W Plains.
746 PM EDT Tue Aug 4 2020 Tropical cyclone Isaias has moved well to the north of the region, with a weak cold front located off to the west of the local area.
Enjoy the cooler weather because summer returns by week's end.
/Issued 207 PM CDT Tue Aug 4 2020/ A welcome relief from the summer heat continues this afternoon and will continue through tomorrow thanks to influence from a deep 500mb trough over the eastern half of the US. Sinking air on the backside of the trough is allowing for higher surface pressures this afternoon and, as a result, mostly clear to partly cloudy skies with light winds. A baroclinic zone embedded within the the northwesterly flow of the trough was evident on satellite with it located over central Oklahoma and extending southeastward into far SE OK over Pittsburgh, Push, and Choctaw counties.
1021 PM EDT Tue Aug 4 2020 A cold front will approach the area overnight and stall out over central NC through the rest of the work week, allowing a more typical summertime pattern of afternoon and evening thunderstorms. As Tropical Storm Isaias continues to race northeast through New England and NE Canada tonight, cool high pressure will sink into the mid-Mississippi Valley. Although winds will generally be calm to light, they will generally back from southwest to northeast in the wake of the trough, with a slight drop in dewpoints as well. Today's cold front will stall across central NC tomorrow, allowing for scattered showers and thunderstorms to continue during the afternoon and overnight.
For tonight, high pressure is expected to build into the region from the north and west. Overnight lows will drop into the mid-upper 50s with a few of the typical colder spots possibly dropping into the lower 50s. For Wednesday, high pressure looks to hold sway across the region with mostly sunny skies and dry conditions. High pressure will be over the Great Lakes region by Wednesday night, and slowly slide eastward through the forecast period.
While active weather is occuring to the south over North Dakota the back end of the low does not appear to be generating any showers that could drop into Sheridan this evening. GAH AFTERNOON DISCUSSION: Small upper low over Sask this afternoon will move southeast tonight. A ridge will then move in Wednesday while a broad trough will begin to move in from the West Coast.
This afternoon, broad upper troughing remained across the eastern CONUS with upper ridging over the southwest US.
We expect them to decrease again later tonight, allowing for low temps in the lower 50s for the most part, which are close to record lows in several areas. A touch of late September-like weather across the region this afternoon, as temperatures have only reached the lower 70s and dew points are steadily falling through the 50s and into the 40s in a few areas. With the low dew points, temperatures should fall into the lower 50s in many areas overnight, which will be near record levels in some locations (see Climate section below). Wednesday should see similar conditions to today, though a degree or two warmer in the afternoon.
Ongoing convection along the High Plains will steadily expand southeastward through the overnight hours with general agreement in the corridor of strongest ascent being aligned along the western periphery of the forecast area.
A weakening upper trough in northern California will move northeast and into our area on Wednesday. Temperatures will be warmer ahead of it, with highs approaching 100 degrees in the lower valleys.
The ridge that has lingered as of late begins to break down, and will shift eastward out of the region. At the same time, a West Coast trough will nudge into Nevada.
/issued 248 PM CDT Tue Aug 4 2020/ SHORT TERM (Tonight through Wednesday Night): Ridging at all levels will dominate across the CWA through the short- term forecast period.
/issued 238 PM CDT Tue Aug 4 2020/ An upper-level anticyclone was centered over the Four Corners, and is drifting eastward.
However, instability is a lot less certain with clouds possibly keeping west central MN in the low 70s or even cooler. At this point think that the threat will be mainly non-severe showers and thunderstorms but can't completely rule out something funky happening under the center of the upper low. The precip will move quickly off to the east as the system exits through MN and we get ridging building back into the Western Plains. As this is going on a broader Pac NW trough will be heading toward the northern Rockies before sweeping well up into Canada over the weekend. VFR may give way to some MVFR CIGs tomorrow as an area low pressure moves through with showers and thunderstorms expected primarily at DVL and FAR tonight into tomorrow morning.
642 PM CDT Tue Aug 4 2020 (This evening through Wednesday) Still expect storms to move off the high plains late tonight initially into western northwestern OK, and then spread/develop southeastward into central OK.
657 PM CDT Tue Aug 4 2020 High pressure will move southeast across the area tonight, then to the southeast on Wednesday. Cool lows in the lower to middle 50s are expected tonight.
804 PM EDT Tue Aug 4 2020 A cold front will approach the area overnight and stall out over central NC through the rest of the work week, allowing a more typical summertime pattern of afternoon and evening thunderstorms. Lows will be in the low to mid 70s. Today's cold front will stall across central NC tomorrow, allowing for scattered showers and thunderstorms to continue during the afternoon and overnight.
752 PM EDT Tue Aug 4 2020 Crossing low pressure will support periods of showers with some thunderstorms into this evening. Building high pressure will then return sunshine and seasonably cooler temperature Wednesday through late week. Scattered to numerous showers, and a few thunderstorms, continue across the region this afternoon ahead of an approaching mid-level trough axis. This activity will continue eastward into this evening, eventually decreasing in coverage as instability is lost and as the trough axis swings through.
Increasing moisture along with an upper level trough and higher daytime temperatures Wednesday through the weekend will result in chances of showers and thunderstorms each day. Some mixing in the lower levels, along with cross over temperatures in the 60s, should limit any widespread fog formation. Low temperatures mainly in the lower to middle 70s. Upper level trough will be slowly moving toward the forecast area from the central Gulf States with weak southerly flow continuing to advect moisture into the area. With short waves rotation through the trough axis expect increasing chances of showers and thunderstorms.
930 PM CDT Tue Aug 4 2020 Light northerly flow persist over the TN Valley as high pressure builds behind a weak frontal boundary that moved through earlier in the day.
RMS Weak moisture and energy present in northwest flow over the east and to the south, over the higher terrain. Temperatures should be a touch warmer with upper 80s to near 90 degreas expected.
/Issued 403 PM CDT Tue Aug 4 2020/ For tonight, another round of showers and thunderstorms is expected to develop across the higher terrain of southeast Colorado and eastern New Mexico, then track southeast into the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles this evening and tonight courtesy of the continuing northwest flow aloft resulting from upper level ridging across the southwest states and upper level troffing in the eastern states.
812 PM EDT Tue Aug 4 2020 A weak cold front will cross the central Appalachians from the northwest tonight, then stall and dissipate Wednesday. The remainder of the week will feature building high pressure aloft which will result in typical summertime weather favoring near seasonal temperatures and scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are expected this evening associated with a cold front that is crossing the mountains from the northwest.
East of that convection, a warm front stretches from southeast Colorado into northern Texas. North of that warm front, a mid-level baroclinic zone/instability gradient stretches north to south across Kansas. Through early Wednesday morning, it appears WAA will be focused near/just north of the warm front, which may tend to keep Colorado convection focused west/southwest of our CWA as it attempts to push off the High Plains.
633 PM CDT Tue Aug 4 2020 The amplified upper-level trough extending from southern Canada into the central U. As a result of this cooling, and light surface winds under the high pressure, patchy radiational fog is possible across eastern Missouri and southwestern Illinois for a few hours before sunrise. Tomorrow's high temperatures will be similarly much cooler than normal across the region, with 850mb temperatures remaining anomalously cool. The afternoon may be a tad warmer than today, given the slightly diminished cloud cover and slow advancement of a low-level thermal ridge over the area from the west. Remaining under the influence of high pressure, a lack of forcing and little instability to speak of will curtail any chance of precipitation through Wednesday night.
Short Term Update - A nose of the Atlantic ridge building westward across our area through the overnight period as the mainland cools will maintain light southeast breezes. A weak ridge building across our area will maintain light southeast flow across Keys waters through the overnight period.
/issued 420 PM EDT Tue Aug 4 2020/ An upper trough will advance through the eastern states as Tropical Cyclone Isaias ejects northeast along the eastern Seaboard and into New England. Highs both today and Tuesday should be in the lower to mid 90s for inland areas, with lows around 75-80. Latest model solutions depict a mid-level trough dominating most of the eastern seaboard and into the Florida panhandle for the end of the work week. Simultaneously, an area of high pressure will slowly build back into the area, though the far western periphery of the high barely makes its presence known, keeping a W component in the winds, i. By the weekend, the aforementioned ridge expands more west, giving us that typical east flow and pushing us back into our typical summertime pattern with afternoon sea breezes.
634 PM CDT Tue Aug 4 2020 High pressure over Missouri continues to provide a northerly flow over Arkansas.
419 PM PDT Tue Aug 4 2020 Updated Air Quality Issues section Temperatures will trend downward through the middle of the week as high pressure gives way to a couple of passing low pressure systems.
To start the period, expect to find upper-level trough in place over the eastern CONUS while upper ridging holds firmly over the south- central CONUS. As we move into the weekend, the eastern trough is progged to lift to the northeast as the southern ridge expands eastward towards the region. At the surface, an area of high pressure will initially be centered over the lower Great Lakes region and then gradually drift eastward through the period. Temperatures will initially be on the cool side, with highs in the lower to mid 80s on Thursday, but then gradually warm back into the upper 80s and lower 90s by this weekend.
440 AM EDT Wed Aug 5 2020 Building high pressure will return quiet, dry conditions today through tomorrow afternoon. A clear sky southwest of Pittsburgh under building high pressure will create areas of fog (dense at times) due to radiational cooling.
5H trof swinging into western PA tonight acting on residual moisture with isold shra traversing portions of central PA. This activity will favor the west as the night wears on as the trof axis approaches NW PA by midnight. Low clouds are likely to develop across the high terrain into early Wednesday morning. A drier, low PW airmass associated with high pressure migrating east from the Ohio Valley should endure a dry midweek period.
244 AM CDT Wed Aug 5 2020 An upper level ridge axis was located from west TX into the northern Rockies. Regional radar shows MCS exiting southwest and south central KS and into OK within this higher area of moisture. The longer term will focus on the return of convection and much warmer temperatures closer to normal and slightly above normal. Temperatures today will still be well below normal with highs from the upper 70s to mid 80s with the cooler readings up in central MO. Tonight, we'll begin to see some upper level energy move east across the top of the ridge and approaching the area from the west. Should see more cloud cover and warmer temperatures than currently with lows in the upper 50s in the eastern Ozarks to the mid 60s in the western portion of MO and southeast KS.
Thursday will be dry with a ridge trying to build into the area and temperatures will warm into the 80s.
Storms between Minot and Rugby continue to weaken as they move east away from the higher instability. Warmer tonight with increasing cloud cover. However, instability is a lot less certain with clouds possibly keeping west central MN in the low 70s or even cooler. At this point think that the threat will be mainly non-severe showers and thunderstorms but can't completely rule out something funky happening under the center of the upper low. The precip will move quickly off to the east as the system exits through MN and we get ridging building back into the Western Plains. As this is going on a broader Pac NW trough will be heading toward the northern Rockies before sweeping well up into Canada over the weekend.
410 AM EDT Wed Aug 5 2020 Under partly to mostly cloudy skies and mainly southeast winds of 10 to 15 mph, temperatures are holding in the lower to mid 80s along the island chain.
The center of the high will shift east during the day and weak southerly flow will commence as a weak warm front moves northward. Can't rule out some isolated showers during the day as the warm front lifts through, especially over southern VT, but still thinking the majority of the area remains dry. Highs will be in the upper 70s to low 80s - a few degrees warmer than the previous day.
Warmer and more humid will be the prevailing theme in the mid-long range of the forecast.
With the continued eastward movement of the upper level ridge, the location for the development and impacts of the precipitation will be further east and will likely impacts portions of north central and eastern Oklahoma.
322 AM EDT Wed Aug 5 2020 One more day of unseasonably cool weather is at hand before temperatures trend warmer and rise above normal this weekend.
While a mid level ridge will set up just south of the forecast area, there should remain a solid component of zonal flow across the aforementioned warm sector that is unlikely to break down anytime real soon.
Tonight is looking to be mostly dry and cool again with slightly warmer lows in the upper 50s to near 60 degrees. This is expected to shift the winds back to a more southerly flow across southern WI, which will begin to advect warmer temps and moisture into the region. Looking at highs on Thursday to be a bit warmer than today with temps closer to normal in the upper 70s.
Models have been having a tough time with precip forecasts, with the GFS adding erroneous showers overnight the past couple nights, while the NAM underdoing the daytime precip for the higher elevations. The ridge shifts farther east on Thursday as the next trough digs into the western CONUS.
Besides the rain, temperatures were in the lower 60s and winds were light out of the south. Storm chances should linger and drift southeast during overnight hours as the low level jet becomes more pronounced. Thursday Into The Weekend Upper level ridging will build from the Southwest U. into the Plains to end the week, ushering in warmer weather for the weekend.
326 AM EDT Wed Aug 5 2020 Building high pressure will return quiet, dry conditions today through tomorrow afternoon. A clear sky southwest of Pittsburgh under building high pressure will create areas of fog (dense at times) due to radiational cooling.
The upper ridge centered near the UT/CO border this evening will amplify tomorrow as an upstream trough makes its way into California. This trough will eject in pieces to the northeast through Thursday, with weak vort lobes crossing Utah. Temperatures will trend cooler again Thursday trough the end of the week.
Atlantic high pressure will rebuild late week through the weekend. The best coverage will likely be near the coast closer to the higher instability and moisture convergence. Lows will range from the mid 70s inland to the the lower 80s at the beaches and Downtown Charleston. At the surface, a weak trough/boundary will linger just inland. With highs in the low to mid 90s each day and surface dewpoints in the 70s, ample instability will be present for scattered to numerous showers and tstms to develop each afternoon/evening. Overnight: A weak pressure gradient will prevail between high pressure across the western Atlantic and a trough of low pressure well inland.
204 AM EDT Wed Aug 5 2020 Post tropical cyclone Isaias moving into Southeast Canada overnight. A weak cold front approaches the local area overnight and will linger across the area Wednesday and Thursday as weak waves of low pressure move along it.
335 AM EDT Wed Aug 5 2020 A weak cold front will linger near the region through this evening. The front then shifts offshore tonight and then stalls on Thursday as high pressure builds across the northeast.
1049 PM CDT Tue Aug 4 2020 (This evening through Wednesday) Still expect storms to move off the high plains late tonight initially into western northwestern OK, and then spread/develop southeastward into central OK.
210 AM EDT Wed Aug 5 2020 Isolated showers cannot be ruled out today mainly north of the New York Thruway, but generally dry weather and slightly cooler than average temperatures are expected through Thursday for Northeast PA and Central NY.
336 AM EDT Wed Aug 5 2020 Increasing moisture along with an upper level trough and higher daytime temperatures today through the weekend will result in chances of showers and thunderstorms each day. Temperatures are on track with lows in the lower 70s. Surface flow will be out of the southeast with a weak boundary/trough stalled to the west and high pressure over the western Atlantic.
455 AM EDT Wed Aug 5 2020 A cold front will stall over central NC through the rest of the work week. Additionally, a cold front moving east across the mountains will push into central NC later today and stall across the Piedmont. This front will transport a slightly drier airmass to the Triad, with dewpoint temperatures remaining in the upper 60s to near 70 throughout the day, and the low to mid 70 dewpoints elsewhere. Lows overnight will range from the upper 60s in the Triad to the low 70s elsewhere.
143 AM EDT Wed Aug 5 2020 A cold front will stall over central NC through the rest of the work week, allowing a more typical summertime pattern of afternoon and evening thunderstorms to develop. As Tropical Storm Isaias continues to race northeast through New England and NE Canada tonight, cool high pressure will sink into the mid-Mississippi Valley. Although winds will generally be calm to light, they will generally back from southwest to northeast in the wake of the trough, with a slight drop in dewpoints as well. Today's cold front will stall across central NC tomorrow, allowing for scattered showers and thunderstorms to continue during the afternoon and overnight.
Temperatures are expected to be a little warmer with highs in the low to mid 80s. Additional convection is possible Thursday night as another subtle wave moves out into the central Plains and within the nose of the low level jet across eastern Kansas and western Missouri where the best theta advection is expected.
Another cool night ahead, though a tad warmer than last night with lows in the 40s across cranberry/marshy areas of central WI to low to mid 50s elsewhere. Upper ridging/southwest flow at the surface then sets up for the end of the week, bringing more summer-like temperatures and humidity back into the area. The ridge aloft looks to flatten out by the weekend, creating more zonal flow aloft. This will result in heat indices climbing into the low to mid 90s for some.
Otherwise, thermal trough to hold over the Great Lakes with h850 temperatures peaking between 7-10C this afternoon, which will support surface temperatures in the low to mid 70s. This will result in a weaker influence of cooler northwest flow. Upper- level flow to turn more zonal following the passage of the trough axis with eventual building heights through the weekend.
An upper trof over the eastern states will remain in place through Wednesday before gradually weakening on Thursday. Hot temps will continue with highs in the low to mid 90s and lows in the low 70s inland to mid/upper 70s along the coast.
For the next 36 hours, South Texas remains under the southeast extension of an upper ridge emanating from a high over West Texas. To the northeast of this ridge axis is where the corridor of NW flow convection will remain for the foreseeable future as our area resides under subsidence and diminishing PWATs. With surface ridging now over the central Gulf, we should see improved SE gradient flow today and a better inland push to the sea breeze. Lastly, a few models are progging a subtle decay of the upper ridge axis by Thursday morning which may allow for some streamer showers primarily south of our coastal waters.