Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
/Issued 735 AM EDT Thu Apr 6 2017/ The last line of thunderstorms had exited the forecast area this morning as a strong trough deepened into the southeast. As the closed upper low pushes into the Great Lakes today. Cooler air should gradually push into north and central GA today as winds gradually become more northwest. A cold night is in store for tonight with the possibility of freezing temperatures for the northeast.
Modest northerly winds, gusty at times this afternoon, will decrease quickly around sunset and become nearly calm overnight as high pressure at the SFC builds in from the W/NW. Surface winds will trend northwest and much lighter than yesterday between strong low pressure advancing away from the area and through the northeast CONUS, and high pressure ridging through the plains.
Mainly dry and mild weather will continue over the area into Friday as high pressure remains over the region. Downslope flow continues on Friday as the ridge axis begins to shift east. The cold front will move through the area during the late afternoon and evening bringing gusty west to northwest winds.
A good 10 degrees warmer in most areas Friday with highs in the upper 50s to mid 60s.
Southerly winds, and increased moisture will result in warmer overnight lows in the upper 40s to near 50 tonight.
Winds will be stronger tonight as next lee trough strengthens. Lee trough will continue to strengthen on Friday as cross mountain also strengthens. New guidance appears to be a little warmer. Recent trends and better performing guidance support going warmer and raised the maxes to near the warmest guidance. At this time it appears that the higher dewpoints will be collected with the strongest winds. The far western portion of those counties will have the lowest relative humidities. However in this same area is the lowest wind speeds.
The cold front currently stretching from the Collier County/Mainland Monroe County line in southwest Florida through the southeastern Gulf of Mexico will advance steadily southeastward through this evening, to be south of the Straits of Florida by the small hours of Friday morning. Expect a few cool days thanks to the moderate to fresh northerly breezes, driven by a large area of high pressure sliding eastward along the northern Gulf coast.
Cold and very windy conditions with a mixture of rain and snow on the backside of the low will impact our area the rest of today and tonight. High pressure will build into the Midwest Friday providing dry weather. As the high moves to the east over the weekend a return of southerly winds will provide a significant warmup with temperatures rising well above normal.
Expect a quiet and uneventful overnight as the ridge aloft over eastern Wyoming moves into the Dakotas by morning. Nearly all locations will remain above freezing. Quite mild end to the week with southwest flow aloft and a decent surface lee trough developing across eastern Wyoming.
Look for widespread rainfall and strong winds beginning this evening and continuing into Friday morning as a strong cold front moves across.
/Tonight through Friday/ Message of the Day: Sunny & Warmer! Hazards: None Forecast Confidence: High Sensible wx for Friday should be a duplicate to Thursday's wx. the only exception being that it should be around 5 or so degrees warmer. In short, difference in temperatures stems from thermal ridge building over the intermountain west and edging towards Iowa.
Temperatures will be warmer on Friday, but still below normal values for this time of year.
A tight pressure gradient around the low is still producing some gusty winds across the Mid-South but wind speeds are lower than yesterday. Wrap around moisture from the upper level low is also producing some cloudiness across portions of the Mid-South but cloud cover is mostly diurnally based this afternoon. High pressure will continue to build into the Lower Mississippi Valley tonight resulting in clear skies when the clouds dissipate this evening.
218 PM MST Thu Apr 6 2017 High pressure over the region will result in high temperatures in the 90s for Friday.
Breezy winds will keep temperatures in the lower to mid 40s. An upper trough will approach the region this weekend.
High pressure will move into the region today and with it bringing a cooler drier airmass over the region.
315 PM EDT Thu Apr 6 2017 Temperatures will average below normal through the weekend as high pressure builds in from the northwest. Strong mid level cyclone will continue to affect the area through the near term period although by the very end of the time frame it will be on the move out to sea. At the surface, the gradient will remain strong as the area lies in between strong low pressure to the north and decent high pressure along the Mississippi Valley.
The combination of light winds and clear skies will be supportive of radiational cooling tonight and overnight lows will once again falling into the low to mid 40s for much of the area.
South to southwest winds will increase by mid to late Friday morning and become gusty as well as a surface trof of low pressure develops over ern CO southward into ern NM and the corresponding pressure gradient tightens durg this time frame.
/ISSUED 926 AM CDT Thu Apr 6 2017/ High pressure was ridging over SE Texas this morning.
442 PM MDT Thu Apr 6 2017 Hand analysis at H5 showing strong ridging over the Rockies separating a storm in the mid-west and very vigorous storm system digging along the left coast of NOAM. Lows will also be on the rise with only a very small probability of freezing temperatures returning to the orchard areas.
Rain and snow is expected across the higher elevations of the Sierra tonight through Friday night.
551 PM EDT Thu Apr 6 2017 It will be windy and dry behind a strong cold front today through Friday. The cold pressure ridge behind the front will be near the forecast area Friday night and patchy frost is forecast. The pressure gradient between low pressure in the Northeast States and ridging in the Lower Mississippi Valley will bring breezy conditions again on Friday, although not quite as strong as previous day. Diminished wind will occur Friday night as the ridge gets closer to the forecast area.
Cold front has made it through our region now bringing an end to the showers and storms. A secondary front, associated with the 850mb trough, will be pushing through tonight. Sharp ridging extends north from Texas into central Canada. , a closed cut-off low sits over Quebec with deep troughing extending south along the eastern seaboard. The upper low moves slowly northeast over the Gulf of St.
Model time-height sections and BUFKIT prog soundings indicate that the high cloud cover will be present for the majority of the TAF period. VFR is still anticipated through the next 24 hours, with surface winds veering as high pressure shifts from central Texas to a little more east of the area.
63" of precipitable water (in the lowest 10th percentile of climatology); hence no precipitation is in the forecast. Fairly flat ridging to zonal flow aloft will prevail, though high clouds are streaming from the E. At the surface, high pressure now nearly overhead will move toward the ArkLaTex region tonight and be nudged a little further eastward by Friday night.
Plan to issue a Special Weather Statement to highlight the snow on the higher terrain for tonight. With low pressure pulling away to our northeast tonight and Friday, we will see decreasing clouds from southwest to northeast on Friday.
An upper level low is currently centered near the Great Lakes and progressing eastward. A gradual warming trending will begin this weekend as the upper trough shifts east and weak upper ridge begins moving in from the west.
High pressure over the region will result in high temperatures in the 90s for Friday.
Temperatures are generally in the upper 20s to mid 30s across the lower elevations, with the coldest readings south of Pueblo to the New Mexico border where snow still exists. high pressure over Utah is forecast to move east across Colorado through tonight. Expect warmer overnight lows tonight with mid to upper 30s across the Plains. Mozley Upper ridge shifts eastward on Friday bringing southwest flow and surface lee troffing to the southeast plains.
Isolated convection has diminished with a capped airmass as the high remains centered over the forecast area. Small craft exercise caution tonight as a nocturnal surge moves around the western periphery of the ridge.
No major changes in overnight lows, which should be mainly in the lower 70s.
Upper level trough over the western Great Lakes will guide the forecast through most of the weekend. This feature lies in between the dominate ridge over the southwestern US and upper low over Quebec. Relatively weak flow in the vicinity of the trough will result in slow forward propagation the next couple days. As for the rest of today and into the overnight, scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue to pop up within the band of high theta e air across the southern half of the lower peninsula. The upper level trough will track eastward across the area on Saturday.
/issued 245 PM CDT FRI JUL 29 2016/ WV imagery shows the upper ridge extending across the southern CONUS, pinched in two by a sort of col over Texas as an upper trough moves into the MS Valley. Over the next few days, the col is forecast to dissipate, and the upper ridge develop back into Texas, leading to a gradual upward tick in highs each day.
856 PM EDT Fri Jul 29 2016 High pressure over the region tonight.
The drying trend will continue through tonight as depicted by the high res models and have decreased pops to account for this.
1025 PM EDT FRI JUL 29 2016 A weak cold front will slowly move off the coast tonight. Low pressure tracking along the front will pass south of the Gulf of Maine late tonight. High pressure will build across the region over the weekend. 1030 PM Update: Latest analysis showed cold front aligned right along the coast. It will cooler and drier n & w of the downeast and coast. A weak s/wv trof alf from SE QB will cross the region this eve. Aft slightly abv avg low temps, Sat should be pleasant, drier, and a little cooler across the all of the region as Can sfc hi pres ridges toward the region, with near normal hi temps.
628 PM CDT FRI JUL 29 2016 High pressure covered the forecast area at 19Z with a northeast wind near Lake Superior. The high pressure will cover the region tonight. Models are trying to bring an upper level short wave trof to the Red River Valley of the North by 09Z/4am. Meanwhile, the models try to push the short wave trof a bit farther eastward. There are differences in location of the trof and associated areas of vorticity drifting over the forecast area.
Highs in the lower 90s along the immediate coast and mid 90s for the interior.
Winds will become locally breezy ahead of a cold front in the afternoon, with strong gusty winds possible near thunderstorms.
Models have not been consistent in their handling of whether the dry air moves over the state or slides by to our east as it rounds the Atlantic ridge.
1155 PM CDT FRI JUL 29 2016 A broad but positively tilted trough was noted on afternoon water vapor imagery over Iowa. A weak upper jet streak, noted by drying on the water vapor imagery was rounding the base of the trough. This trough and associated jet streak is likely providing the vertical lift to get a few showers and storms going in southeastern and south central Nebraska. But the upper trough will be slow to pass by the region so there may be enough upper level support to allow showers and storms to last a little longer into the evening.
Increasing cloud cover and minimal shower chances should continue overnight however as low pressure approaches.
722 PM CDT FRI JUL 29 2016 The CWA remains in a weakness between a 591dam subtropical Bermuda high to the east and a 594dam high over the Desert Southwest with weak mid/upper troughing just to the north. Over the south, a large, sprawling, persistent ridge remains locked in. In the ridge over the south remains a weakness over the lower MS valley in the form of a weak cyclonic shear axis. This axis has served as a focus for waves dipping down from the northwest, as well as, waves moving on the underside of the ridge.
1103 PM EDT FRI JUL 29 2016 Cooler and drier Canadian High pressure builds across the area tonight through Saturday.
1146 PM EDT FRI JUL 29 2016 A weak cold front will slowly move off the coast tonight. Low pressure tracking along the front will pass south of the Gulf of Maine late tonight. High pressure will build across the region over the weekend. A weak s/wv trof alf from SE QB will cross the region this eve. Aft slightly abv avg low temps, Sat should be pleasant, drier, and a little cooler across the all of the region as Can sfc hi pres ridges toward the region, with near normal hi temps.
756 PM EDT FRI JUL 29 2016 Cooler and drier Canadian High pressure builds across the area tonight through Saturday.
1036 PM EDT FRI JUL 29 2016 Upper level ridge off the southeast coast allowing an increase in moisture for the weekend. Upper level trough stretching through the OH and MS valley region will slowly shift eastward through the weekend providing a better chance for storms than in recent days. Lee side troughing will continue while a frontal boundary remains across the Mid-Atlantic states, well north of the forecast area.
741 PM EDT FRI JUL 29 2016 Upper level ridge off the southeast coast allowing an increase in moisture for the weekend. Upper level trough stretching through the OH and MS valley region will slowly shift eastward through the weekend providing a better chance for storms than in recent days. Lee side troughing will continue while a frontal boundary remains across the Mid-Atlantic states, well north of the forecast area.
828 PM MDT FRI JUL 29 2016 The region remains under high pressure and the air mass will remain dry with overnight temperatures slightly above seasonal averages. A high pressure ridge will keep the air mass warm and generally stable.
710 PM CDT FRI JUL 29 2016 A broad but positively tilted trough was noted on afternoon water vapor imagery over Iowa. A weak upper jet streak, noted by drying on the water vapor imagery was rounding the base of the trough. This trough and associated jet streak is likely providing the vertical lift to get a few showers and storms going in southeastern and south central Nebraska. But the upper trough will be slow to pass by the region so there may be enough upper level support to allow showers and storms to last a little longer into the evening.
530 PM MDT FRI JUL 29 2016 19z surface analysis had old frontal boundary from central WY into central KS with weak trough into the Black Hills. 5KJ/kg MLCAPE has developed along this trough with 15-20m/s 0-6km bulk shear. Saturday and Saturday night, upper ridge builds from the southwest US into the northern plains with implied subsidence and drying. Temperatures will be noticeably warmer.
611 PM CDT FRI JUL 29 2016 Thunderstorms developed ahead of windshift/cold front moving through our eastern counties.
Overall pattern remains the same with ridging in the west and troughing in the east.
1144 PM CDT FRI JUL 29 2016 Thunderstorms developed ahead of windshift/cold front moving through our eastern counties.
1200 AM EDT SAT JUL 30 2016 A weak upper-level trough will become centered over the eastern U.
1052 PM EDT FRI JUL 29 2016 Outside a few isolated showers that were able to develop north of the Lower Keys this evening, the local area remained rain free with partly cloudy skies.
High pressure aloft will continue to break down overnight. Expect low pressure aloft to prevail over the region on Saturday.
641 AM EST Sat Dec 31 2016 A pressure ridge over the area will move off the coast this afternoon.
944 AM EST Sat Dec 31 2016 Weak high pressure will provide fair weather this morning.
648 AM EST Sat Dec 31 2016 High pressure will crest across the area this morning before moving offshore. A weak low pressure system will bring a light snowfall to the region late Saturday through Saturday night as it moves across the region.
High pressure, which built behind yesterdays cold front, will begin to slide to the east today, as the next system moves into the Mid-west. The cold front associated with the low is currently under frontogenesis. This area of disturbed weather will begin to interact with the higher latitude short wave, and the cold front associated with the northern system will increase in strength and coverage. As all this is happening, the high, currently to our north, will be sitting over Bermuda. The wind will gradually turn to the southeast,and then south, pushing the front to the north, as a warm front.
507 AM CST Sat Dec 31 2016 The cold front is presently swinging through the CWA, and as expected northwesterly winds have increased behind the front. Otherwise, satellite showing broken stratus to our north and this will drop southward across our area through the morning before breaking up in the afternoon as the lower level flow turns southwesterly. With the frontal passage it will be a cooler day, though in consideration of trends of late stayed on the upper side of guidance with highs mid 20s through east central SD and southwestern MN, to mid 30s along the mid and lower MO River Valley. The one exception will be over the Buffalo Ridge area where there could be some wind enhancement in a slightly tightening gradient in the southwesterly low level flow.
Mostly dry through Saturday then a strong cold front will bring snow and much colder temperatures to the area beginning on Sunday.
After a brief period of upper level ridging today, a strong and very cold trough will move southeast toward the area tonight and tomorrow. This will bring snow showers and a cold front Sunday. Tonight, as the upper low approaches, higher- elevations will see an increase in winds. Sunday, snow showers, mainly light, will move in from the northwest as the strong and large upper low moves into Washington and Oregon. The upper trough axis extends northeast through northern Idaho and into central Canada.
644 AM MST Sat Dec 31 2016 Cold front had pushed south across the plains and areas of stratus were developing along the Front Range as expected. Aloft, strong flow will continue through the week, varying from southwesterly on Sunday to westerly through the bulk of the week as an upper low slowly comes ashore over Oregon.
This will help keep the return flow going and may be enough to cause some light rain/drizzle over the higher terrain of western Arkansas late tonight and Sunday morning. The second disturbance, the cutoff low, will swing out of northern Mexico Sunday evening as a negatively tilted trough across Texas. Ahead of this trough, convection will develop over the Arklatex region.
Refreshed the forecast this morning to beef up freezing fog wording and to issue Freezing Fog Advisory through the morning for the Eastern Magic Valley, Snake Plain and Upper Snake Highlands. Freezing Fog has continued to become more widespread and thicker as the early morning hours progress, with visibilities steadily dropping along the travel corridors, particularly from Pocatello to Idaho Falls. Model forecast guidance and pattern recognition suggests the most widespread fog to linger through the morning, with patchy dense freezing fog perhaps lingering through the afternoon, particularly across the Arco Desert/INL. There is some potential for freezing fog to re-form after sunset this evening, so observational and forecast trends will have to be monitored for the potential for a new advisory or possibly even an extension of the current advisory.
Relatively quiet in the short term period today with weak high pressure over the forecast area and a northwest upper level flow. A cold front will drop south across southern Canada today and may bring a few light snow showers to the northern tier counties. Temperatures are expected to warm into the 20s across the forecast area, ahead of the approaching cold front. Tonight, the cold front drops south through the forecast area with temperatures generally in the single digits. Winds turn more northerly with the passage of the cold front but they should be light.
932 AM EST Sat Dec 31 2016 Weak high pressure will provide fair weather this morning.
527 AM CST Sat Dec 31 2016 Cold front tracking through the area this morning will keep temperatures quite a bit cooler today, as much as 15 to 20 degrees cooler than yesterday.
A cold front is currently working its way south through the TAFs sites. /Issued 241 AM CST Sat Dec 31 2016/ Cold front was nearing the Oklahoma Panhandle early this morning. High temperatures will be back down to around normal for late December behind this cold front. Another upper level short wave trough over northwest California now is expected to dive southeast and this system will move south of the panhandles on Sunday night.
756 AM EST Sat Dec 31 2016 Weak high pressure will provide fair weather this morning.
557 AM CST Sat Dec 31 2016 Latest surface analysis had low pressure centered over Wisconsin, with a trailing cold front extending into the southwest states. Cooler but still seasonably mild lows in the 20s are expected behind the front for tonight.
Expect cold and showery weather to continue over the New Year's holiday weekend with periods of winter driving conditions across the high country. The low will slowly move across the state through the day bringing periods of showers. Any travelers in the high country on Sunday should anticipate winter driving conditions and be prepared for accumulating snow.
Even though some gusts are above 60 mph we will not issue a warning based on the gust being in the highest elevations and with gusts of 50-55 mph around the Pinery. Modest southwest to west winds will shift from the northeast and east after 00Z at MAF/HOB as a weak cold front moves into the area. A second and stronger upper trough will quickly follow late Sunday afternoon and Sunday night, resulting in mainly chance to likely pops in showers and thunderstorms areawide.
At the surface, a weak cold front extends from extreme se Nebraska, into west- central KS. Weak cold front will push through the entire forecast area today, knocking temps back closer to seasonal normals. Precip chances are still expected to increase Sun night into Mon morning as this trough slowly digs southeast, increasing mid level theta-e advection. Models continue to come in warmer for temps Mon morning which leads to increased confidence that all of the precip will remain in liquid form. Highs on Wed and Thu will likely not top the freezing mark. Cold front currently moving south across the region with breezy north winds today in its wake.
Modest southwest to west winds will shift from the northeast and east after 00Z at MAF/HOB as a weak cold front moves into the area. A second and stronger upper trough will quickly follow late Sunday afternoon and Sunday night, resulting in mainly chance to likely pops in showers and thunderstorms areawide.
640 AM CST Sat Dec 31 2016 Cold front making slow progress to the southeast across forecast area early this morning. Despite cloud cover, gusty southerly winds ahead of cold front will help temps warm up into the low 40s to mid 50s today.
Moderate southwest winds will shift to northerly as cold front passes over terminals this morning. /issued 419 AM CST Sat Dec 31 2016/ Cold front entering far northwest Oklahoma at this typing and it is expected to make steady south-southeast progress through the day, clearing southeast parts of Oklahoma late this afternoon.
419 AM CST Sat Dec 31 2016 Cold front entering far northwest Oklahoma at this typing and it is expected to make steady south-southeast progress through the day, clearing southeast parts of Oklahoma late this afternoon.
340 AM MST Sat Dec 31 2016 Current surface analysis shows main cold front well south and east of the region, with a secondary boundary passing to the south of the forecast area now.
The highest moisture across the region is located over the Gulf waters into the northern Coastal Bend and Victoria Crossroads, and the best rain chances will continue over these areas today. Cloud cover today will help keep high temperatures a little cooler than would otherwise be expected, with highs today in the low to mid 70s.