Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1039 AM CDT Sat Oct 17 2020 Updated forcast to add shower chances along a passing cold front later this afternoon into this evening. A cold front will move through the area this afternoon. An upper level low pressure system spinning over southern Hudson Bay will bring in multiple short waves with enough energy to produce occasional rain and snow chances throughout the first half of the week. The flow aloft becomes nearly zonal by mid week as the low moves off to the east.
The apparent or "feel-like" temperatures will range in the lower 20s in the north Nebraska Panhandle and northeastern parts of Wyoming.
Upper level analysis and water vapor imagery depict a broad trough covering much of the upper half of the US. As this low moves eastward, a strong cold front will quickly drop through the forecast area this morning. Additionally, expect a period of near-wind advisory criteria winds by mid-morning into the early afternoon behind the cold front. Ongoing rain and snow showers will continue today, with rain changing to snow as the colder air filters in behind the cold front. This transition to all snow will occur relatively early this morning across the higher terrain of the Black Hills and NE WY.
Temperatures as of 2 PM are generally in the lower 80s, with southwest winds gusting to 20 to 30 mph. Expect another quiet night with warmer temperatures than last night due to stronger low level southerly flow. Models continue to bring a cold front down into the Big country by the mid to late afternoon. The NAM continues to be the most aggressive with the shallow cold air mass quickly dropping temperatures down into the 50s in the Big Country by Sunday evening while the GFS is much warmer.
Mid afternoon temperatures are generally in the lower and middle 70s. Dew points are generally in the mid and upper 30s north of Interstate 12, and in the lower and middle 50s south of Lake Pontchartrain.
Meanwhile, a cold front in northern Kansas will move southeast. Much cooler temperatures are expected north of the boundary, but the late arrival of the front in southeast and southeastern Oklahoma and north central Texas will allow high temperatures to remain warm in the south Sunday.
1036 AM CDT Sat Oct 17 2020 Quiet day on tap as high pressure slip off to the northeast. /issued 533 AM CDT Sat Oct 17 2020/ Short Term (This Weekend): Surface analysis showing the high pressure over the AR/TN area.
/issued 1036 AM CDT Sat Oct 17 2020/ Quiet day on tap as high pressure slip off to the northeast. /issued 533 AM CDT Sat Oct 17 2020/ Short Term (This Weekend): Surface analysis showing the high pressure over the AR/TN area.
Any chance of patchy frost looks to remain confined to deeper valleys within the Bluegrass region, where temperatures will be on the cooler side. Moving into Sunday, expect to see increasing cloud coverage along with increasing rain chances as deeper moisture moves in ahead of an approaching cold front.
Persistant broad trough over the area with multiple short waves pushing through continue to be the focus for the extended.
This wave is bringing stronger winds with a wind advisory in effect for the lower Snake River plain and Eastern Magic valley for this afternoon.
High pressure over the region with light winds the next couple of days.
The flow around the high is weak out of the south to southeast. Despite the return flow, a few of the cooler eastern valleys will see some patchy frost tonight and perhaps a few locations see some valley fog. This will remain mostly to the northwest, as upper level ridging to the southeast keeps this system from making much headway east and southeast. An area of high pressure to the east will provide VFR skies through the period, with perhaps some high clouds at times.
330 PM CDT Sat Oct 17 2020 Current satellite imagery shows cloud cover gradually building in across the region as a strong cold front dives SE across our area. Rather, accumulations ranging anywhere from a dusting to a few tenths of an inch, with the highest amounts forecast to occur over south central SD. For the rest of the week, expect below normal to near normal temperatures to prevail with the aid of broad troughing and NW flow aloft. Brief period of MVFR ceilings may slide through the Highway 14 corridor/KHON-KBKX-KMML this afternoon.
High pressure and dry air essentially keeps us rain-free through the work week.
Otherwise a few showers across the west-central mountains this morning will dissipate as a weak trough over northern Idaho exits the area.
Fog should dissipate more rapidly on Sunday due to the drier environment and stronger southely winds as low pressure develops in N TX. Expect much warmer temperatures on Sunday with abundant sunshine and highs ranging from the Upper 80s (east) to mid 90s (west).
High pressure ridge remains in place over the southeastern US this morning. on the way to the lower 70s by this afternoon. With plenty of sunshine, this will bring highs into the lower 70s across the region, but some upper 60s will linger in the north. Dry conditions will continue into tonight, but temperatures overnight will be slightly warmer thanks to some slowly increasing moisture. Lows will range from the mid/upper 50s west to the lower 50s east.
Temperatures tonight will not be as cold as last night with no north wind advecting cooler air in.
342 PM EDT Sat Oct 17 2020 Ridging will persist over the region through Sunday with mild temperatures.
The wind combined with warmer temperatures and afternoon RH values in the 25-35 percent range will yield a very high fire danger across much of northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas through the afternoon.
1235 PM EDT Sat Oct 17 2020 High pressure through Sunday. A high pressure system will provide dry weather tonight.
104 PM EDT Sat Oct 17 2020 Cooler and drier air moving into the region through the weekend. I mean, could we have better weather than we're seeing out there right now? Behind a quickly lifting 500 hPa trough over New England, zonal flow has developed with seasonal heights over the region. At the surface, the cold front that moved through last night is well off shore. This has kept us feeling good this morning and afternoon, with temperatures region-wide in the low to mid 60s, and dewpoints in the mid 30s to mid 40s.
High pressure will maintain dry conditions. Overnight lows will be slightly warmer than observed this morning. Another dry day Sunday with warmer temperatures and increasing clouds ahead of the next frontal system.
Temperatures tonight will bounce back into the lower 50s. Unfortunately these dry conditions will not last too long with moisture moving in overnight ahead of the weak trough and front.
Min RH values this afternoon may bottom out in the 20 to 30 percent range for many areas, but dewpoints look to climb overnight with southerly flow and approaching trough.
120 PM EDT Sat Oct 17 2020 High pressure is setup just to the east across West Virginia this morning. Most areas have warmed above freezing and therefore the Freeze Warning has been allowed to expire this morning. This was resulting mostly clear skies, and with temperatures mostly in the lower 30s, frost was likely present in most places. Aloft, a couple of jet streaks will rotate around the upper low and bring an increase in troughing back south into the CONUS. This will support a cold front which will approach the JKL forecast area from the northwest by late Sunday.
A warm air advection pattern will persist tonight as high pressure pushes east. It will be considerably warmer on Sunday as 850 mb temps warm to between 18-19 C. MinT values will be in the lower 70's.
The exception is ridging arcing from California to the Gulf of Alaska to the Arctic Sea. The GFS solution of bringing a large scale and cold trough back into the West is just to far from reality attm and ignored. Gusts of 25-35 mph will be common, particularly across the higher terrain TAF sites.
205 PM CDT Sat Oct 17 2020 Cold front sweeping in from the northwest this afternoon with RAP pointing to fairly decent frontogenetic forcing along it. Rather dry sub cloud layer but warmer wet bulb temps per bufkit soundings would suggest rain will be the the pcpn type at the outset. Speaking of those winds, pressure gradient gets a little baggy as the cold front moves in, but tightens later in the evening as the front exits east.
212 PM CDT Sat Oct 17 2020 Currently, we have an area of high pressure centered over West Virginia with low pressure and a front extending from Iowa into western Kansas.
By tomorrow, we will be fully re-established in a similar pattern to the past week with high pressure in control thanks to very zonal upper-level flow.
A northwest wind shift is expected around 12Z ahead of a cold front that will move through all TAF sites just after this TAF period. An amplified low-level thermal ridge will extend s from the low resulting in a rapid warm-up across the area today with widespread U80s-L90s. A cold front will start to slowly move s Sun AM as an 80kt 5h jet moves into/thru the base of broad mid-level trof in the central plains. We will have to watch as Thur could be warmer than advertised (just ahead of cold front). Cooler and breezy Fri, still dry.
While the roads are clear now, temperatures are at or below freezing already. As some warmer air moves in aloft, there is still a chance that some light freezing rain could develop. There is still significant uncertainty with this, but have kept the mention of freezing rain in the forecast.
SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday night): Broad high pressure building back into the Gulf is currently shifting the northerly winds to south/southeasterly. This light southerly to southeasterly flow will allow temperatures to warm through the short term period with warmer temperatures expected for Sunday as well as decreasing clouds across Deep South Texas.
Within the large upper level trough a shallow cold front will push into Texas late on Sunday.
1146 AM MDT Sat Oct 17 2020 Current radar shows widely scattered showers across the area in a northwest flow regime ahead of an approaching cold front. The highest snow accumulation will be in the favorable upslope environment of the Bighorns, where a Winter Weather Advisory is in effect through early Sunday morning. Central and southern Wyoming will likely remain warmer dry, with another windy day across southern areas.
The high pressure that moved in behind the front yesterday has tracked quickly northeast and is pushing off the New England coast at this time. the result has been warmer of DP's. Therefore morning lows tomorrow morning will be about 10 to 12 degrees warmer than the start of todays lows. Tomorrow afternoon highs on Sunday will range in the low to mid 80s.
A front will extend from this low southwestward into the Southern Plains. A warm front will extend southeastward across the Lower Mississippi River Valley from an additional area of low pressure across the Southern Plains. The pressure gradient will remain elevated across the region with the high to the northeast and low to the west. In the mid-levels, a trough will pass just to the north and model soundings support mid to upper level clouds increasing overnight. Lows will range from mid 40s to the low 50s. The mid and upper level flow will become parallel to the cold front to the northeast and the front will slow and stall.
With the high moving in, it should be a rather cold overnight period, but am a bit concerned about mid/high clouds upstream. UVM ahead of a system will spread out across the forecast area which should serve to saturate much of the lower to mid levels of the troposphere.
Areas of rain and will follow the cold front south Sunday night.
Boundary layer flow will turn toward the southeast overnight and into Sunday advecting a warmer airmass into the region. For the beginning of the extended (through mid-week), fast zonal upper flow and surface ridging will continue to produce dry conditions and warmer-than normal temperatures across the southern Appalachians.
340 PM CDT Sat Oct 17 2020 High pressure continues to dominate the eastern and southeastern portion of the country. As the ridge axis shifts slightly to the east and along the Atlantic seaboard, the winds continue to veer from easterly this morning to more southeasterly today. Those winds becoming more southerly will push warmer temperatures into the region. so highs will climb into the lower 80s.
Will continue to monitor and if it holds together will need to increase coverage of warmer lows.
Interaction between a frontal boundary south of Florida and strong high pressure over the mid-Atlantic states will produce gusty east- northeast winds over the gulf coast waters over the next couple of days.
Some of the low clouds will spill into the Umpqua valley tonight, guidance is split on if conditions will lower past MVFR, which is what is expected for now.
Several weak disturbances this week will prompt light shower chances, mainly in the higher elevations through the week.
635 PM EDT Sat Oct 17 2020 High pressure will persist over the region through Sunday with mild afternoon temperatures.
954 PM CDT Sat Oct 17 2020 Return of onshore flow/WAA yielding warmer temperatures and higher SFC dewpoints, with lows tonight likely to average around 10F or so degrees warmer than last night. Hourly readings running a little warmer than the previous forecast, and are only expected to drop another few degrees before stabilizing. The high pressure that moved in behind the front yesterday has tracked quickly northeast and is pushing off the New England coast at this time. the result has been warmer of DP's. Therefore morning lows tomorrow morning will be about 10 to 12 degrees warmer than the start of todays lows. Tomorrow afternoon highs on Sunday will range in the low to mid 80s.
Thus interpolated latest sat imagery with the guidance showing the higher sky cover, then increasing sky manually to show a better depiction of what will likely occur this evening. Persistant broad trough over the area with multiple short waves pushing through continue to be the focus for the extended.
719 PM EDT Sat Oct 17 2020 High pressure will persist over the region through Sunday with mild afternoon temperatures.
642 PM CDT Sat Oct 17 2020 Cold front sweeping in from the northwest this afternoon with RAP pointing to fairly decent frontogenetic forcing along it. Rather dry sub cloud layer but warmer wet bulb temps per bufkit soundings would suggest rain will be the the pcpn type at the outset. Speaking of those winds, pressure gradient gets a little baggy as the cold front moves in, but tightens later in the evening as the front exits east.
Currently, we have an area of high pressure centered over West Virginia with low pressure and a front extending from Iowa into western Kansas.
The cold front has pushed southwest across the plains of southeast WY and NE Panhandle with winds shifting to northeasterly. The apparent or "feel-like" temperatures will range in the lower 20s in the north Nebraska Panhandle and northeastern parts of Wyoming.
Cold front currently across northern Kansas is expected to be across extreme northeast Oklahoma as we approach 12z Sunday. Isolated to scattered showers and a even a thunderstorm will be possible overnight across eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas in advance of the cold front as moisture increases across the region.
1033 PM EDT Sat Oct 17 2020 A large high pressure cell is centered near the Delmarva, driving fresh to strong northeast to east breezes through the Florida Keys. The gradient is enhanced by a broad and weak inverted trough pushing west through Hispaniola. From synopsis, an expansive high pressure ridge will remain across the eastern third of the United States.
A weak warm front will move northward across the region tonight, and most of the models continue to suggest there will be just enough isentropic ascent for scattered showers along and north of a line from Tyler TX to Prescott AR after midnight. A longwave trough over Southern Canada and the Northern CONUS will bring a cold front slowly towards our region.
926 PM CDT Sat Oct 17 2020 Tranquil weather continues across the Tennessee Valley region this evening as high pressure centered just to our northeast remains in control of the weather. Temperatures have already fallen back into the low to 50s as of 02z and will continue to creep back into mid to upper 40s over the remainder of the night. The one wildcard in the forecast is a large patch of mid-level clouds that are currently drifting eastward ahead of a weak trough and frontal boundary to the west. Overall though, the main story will be a continued dry forecast with warmer temperatures tonight thanks to a light southerly flow. The mid and upper level flow will become parallel to the cold front to the northeast and the front will slow and stall.
802 PM EDT Sat Oct 17 2020 Cooler and drier air moving into the region through the weekend. Canadian high pressure centered to our NE will continue to direct cool and dry air into our forecast area under NE winds. Guidance means are generally indicating low 40s north to upper 40s south for low temps tonight towards daybreak, although some outlying normally- colder wind protected locations could dip into the upper 30s, with urban centers and lakeshore areas locally warmer near 50.
Went ahead and started rain in the northwest area TAF sites late tomorrow afternoon as a warm and cold front both approach the area.
Warm advection in advance of that system will support lows warmer than observed this morning. Another dry day Sunday with warmer temperatures and increasing clouds ahead of the next frontal system.
High pressure continues to dominate the eastern and southeastern portion of the country. As the ridge axis shifts slightly to the east and along the Atlantic seaboard, the winds continue to veer from easterly this morning to more southeasterly today. Those winds becoming more southerly will push warmer temperatures into the region. so highs will climb into the lower 80s.
/issued 257 PM CDT Sat Oct 17 2020/ SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday night): Broad high pressure building back into the Gulf is currently shifting the northerly winds to south/southeasterly. This light southerly to southeasterly flow will allow temperatures to warm through the short term period with warmer temperatures expected for Sunday as well as decreasing clouds across Deep South Texas.
AC Chattanooga Airport, TN 48 72 55 77 57 / 0 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 42 69 52 75 54 / 0 0 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 41 69 52 75 55 / 0 0 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 37 68 46 73 49 / 0 0 0 0 0.
553 PM MDT Sat Oct 17 2020 00Z TAF CYCLE A shallow back door cold front will sag into the eastern plains tonight and Sunday morning with a wind shift out of the north and northeast. A temperature rollercoaster is in store for New Mexico, as rebounded temperatures today will be subject to another cold front Sunday.
MVFR cigs will develop into the evening hours, ahead of an approaching cold front. Areas of rain and will follow the cold front south Sunday night.
A northwest wind shift is expected around 18z ahead of a cold front that will move through the terminals just after this TAF period.
1022 PM EDT Sat Oct 17 2020 High pressure will slide off to the east tonight. A cold front will push slowly southeast into the region Sunday afternoon and evening. The combination of clouds and winds will keep warmer temperatures in the northwest counties and cooler in the southeast. Low level moisture will increase on Sunday as the cold front continues to push across the Ohio Valley. Highs on Sunday will range from around 60 in West Central Ohio to the mid to upper 60s in the lower Scioto Valley. Rain chances will climb into the likely and categorical ranges, with the highest PoPs in the Cinci Tri-State. Lows will be mild Sunday night ranging from the mid 40s in West Central Ohio to the lower 50s in northern Kentucky.
644 PM CDT Sat Oct 17 2020 Current satellite imagery shows cloud cover gradually building in across the region as a strong cold front dives SE across our area. Rather, accumulations ranging anywhere from a dusting to a few tenths of an inch, with the highest amounts forecast to occur over south central SD. For the rest of the week, expect below normal to near normal temperatures to prevail with the aid of broad troughing and NW flow aloft.
High pressure is quickly retreating off to the east as a great cold front stretches from the Great Lakes to the Great Plains. While a cold front will near Middle TN Sunday, no fropa is expected.
209 AM EDT Sun Oct 18 2020 High pressure through Sunday. A high pressure system will provide dry weather tonight.
Today Through Sunday Through the period, weak upper troughing with embedded quasi-zonal flow will prevail over Arkansas as a very broad, low amplitude trough migrates eastward across the northern tier of the US. A surface cold front associated with the upper trough will enter northern AR early tonight and make little southward progression overnight. For Monday, highs will be a little lower over the northern higher terrain (lower to mid 60s) and temperatures over the far south will be a degree or two warmer (77 to 82) as weak southerly flow remains in place south of the dissipating cold front.
/28/ High pressure continues to dominate the eastern and southeastern portion of the country. As the ridge axis shifts slightly to the east and along the Atlantic seaboard, the winds continue to veer from easterly this morning to more southeasterly today. Those winds becoming more southerly will push warmer temperatures into the region. so highs will climb into the lower 80s.
232 AM EDT Sun Oct 18 2020 A ridge of high pressure will bring a dry and seasonable day to end the weekend.
Could see some stronger storms in the afternoon as the low approaches, but that would be confined to the extreme southeastern CWA. Monday will see temperatures a few degrees cooler than today, with highs ranging from the upper 40s far north to the low 60s far south.
1042 PM CDT Sat Oct 17 2020 Cold front sweeping in from the northwest this afternoon with RAP pointing to fairly decent frontogenetic forcing along it. Rather dry sub cloud layer but warmer wet bulb temps per bufkit soundings would suggest rain will be the the pcpn type at the outset. Speaking of those winds, pressure gradient gets a little baggy as the cold front moves in, but tightens later in the evening as the front exits east. Weak high pressure builds in Monday, but models also point to a ripple in the upper level flow sliding west-east across the region. MVFR ceilings will linger for awhile early this morning with the low clouds expected to erode before daybreak.
252 AM EDT Sun Oct 18 2020 High pressure exits. Cold front approaches tonight and lingers near the Ohio Valley. Starting off with a fairly dry atmosphere, so there will be a slight lag between forcing start from any of those disturbances aloft or the f-gen in the lower levels/surface. Cold frontal boundary near the Ohio River to start the period, with wave of low pressure moving along the boundary.
346 AM CDT Sun Oct 18 2020 Cold front at 330 AM extended from norther TX Panhandle to near Wichita to Kansas City and is making steady progress south.
322 AM EDT Sun Oct 18 2020 Synopsis/Discussion/Marine - Scattered Rain through This Afternoon - Another Round of Precip Monday/Monday Night - Active Pattern Through the Rest of the Week - Scattered Rain through This Afternoon - As a cold front continues to approach the area from the west, scattered light rain will persist. Snow will not be out of question, particularly for areas in Central Lower towards US-10 later in the evening as temperatures drop into the low to mid 30s. - Active Pattern Through the Rest of the Week - We'll see a chance at warmer conditions near mid to late week as a low pressure system lifts a warm front north.
This appears to be associated with the southern tail of an elevated warm front and associated trough. Warm advection in advance of that system will support lows warmer than observed this morning. Another dry day Sunday with warmer temperatures and increasing clouds ahead of the next frontal system. Warmer lows expected with the increased cloud coverage but precipitation should hold off for the most part until Monday with the front.