Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
932 PM CDT Mon Jul 17 2017 The ridge aloft is providing a fairly standard summer night across Oklahoma and north Texas. Currently, a bullish 500mb ridge continues to build, with it's axis impinging towards the upper Midwest/western Great Lakes region.
Otherwise, WV imagery indicates the upper inverted trough has moved west to srn AZ, as also noted by the dearth of activity to the SW. However, another trough has made landfall over the Rio Grande Valley, and is forecast to arrive in the Big Bend by about 00Z Wed.
It is more uncertain if storms will survive in tact into the lower deserts later this evening, as the morning sounding from Phoenix reflected a less unstable air mass. Otherwise, the large-scale pattern will remain fairly stagnant, with the midlevel anticyclone centered near the Southern Plains, and a weak upper low over northwest Mexico.
There will also be isolated storms possible further west, from the influence of the upper trough as it moves from central and south central Nebraska into eastern Nebraska overnight. The highest values look to be across Chase, Hayes and Frontier County, reaching 100 to as high as 105.
/issued 249 PM CDT Mon Jul 17 2017/ SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday night): Shower activity continues to bubble up around the region due to midlevel inverted trough bringing instability and deeper moisture.
However, the low level moisture will remain, which will result in local fog development overnight. As ridging builds in aloft and subsidence takes over, not to mention low level flow becoming a bit more southerly, the boundary should largely wash out. Fries Higher 500mb heights will creep into the region, with warmer air continuing to move into the area.
This is mainly due to some daytime heating (has allowed temperatures to climb into the mid 80s to lower 90s, despite early cloud cover) and dewpoints in the lower to mid 70s. Lows should be a bit cooler (but not much) overnight than previous nights, as some drier air pushes into the area behind the front.
Slightly drier air was located across eastern Oklahoma, although some patchy fog is possible across western Arkansas, where dewpoints are in the lower 70s and winds have become calm.
Cyclonic circulation of the inverted trough over south Texas can been seen on visible satellite imagery as well as regional radar. The I-35 corridor will likely see the least coverage as it appears to be just on the back side of the weak inverted trough with slight negative vorticity advection occurring.
Temperatures have been running 3 to 8 degrees cooler this evening. Temperatures are generally running a few degrees cooler than at this time yesterday.
610 PM CDT Mon Jul 17 2017 Heat remains the primary concern over the forecast period as the upper-level ridge continues to expand and strengthen across the eastern Plains.
1034 PM EDT Mon Jul 17 2017 Currently - A weak pressure pattern is in place across the Florida Keys, with the western end of the lower tropospheric ridge extending across South Florida and the Keys.
Water vapor satellite imagery and h7 dewpoints showed mid level moisture with the weakening h5 low pressure system. the low level jet increases to 40kts into central Nebraska and is more in the 20 to 25kt range as it spreads east into the local forecast area. Highs Tuesday will again be in the 90s and with higher dewpoints the highest heat indices should be 98 to 105.
/issued 742 PM CDT Mon Jul 17 2017/ For the 18/00Z TAF period, VFR conditions will prevail for the majority of the period as upper level high pressure ridge builds farther into the region.
Still expect a significant heat wave to develop as the week rolls on and upper ridge builds in from the west.
As the low level jet ramps up tonight thunderstorms will likely linger into the overnight hours. Looking ahead to tomorrow afternoon, as the upper wave tracks off to the east thunderstorm development along the cold front is possible as it enters northern Nebraska.
Light westerly flow is pushing into the area as a broad high pressure lies over the southern Rockies. Tuesday will be slightly warmer, and drier mainly over the northern half of the forecast area where lower PWs will be moving in.
1141 PM CDT Mon Jul 17 2017 Little change to the going forecast this afternoon, with temperatures still expected to top out in the low to mid 90s.
75 inches across the TN Valley with the highest amounts over NE AL. Daytime high temperatures are expected to be in the low to mid 60s today with low clouds. Little change in the forecast is expected tonight as the remnants of Irma become sheared apart in between two opposing mid-level ridges (one west, one east). The interaction of these two ridges and the shearing of the remnants should continue into Wednesday with the center of the future mid- level trough as the cutoff low (former remnants) opens as a wave.
1044 AM EDT Tue Sep 12 2017 Dominant high pressure will slowly slide east into the Mid Atlantic as we head into the latter half of the week. Morning sounding reveals a very dry layer just above the surface, with dewpoints in the low 30s at about 1000 FT. With light winds through the low levels, a sea breeze is possible along the coast. as temperatures will be warmer than normal for this time of year along with dry weather. afternoon temps should top out in the low to mid 80s. H8 temps look a degree or two cooler.
926 AM EDT Tue Sep 12 2017 A washed out cold front has settled into nrn lower Michigan, with only a narrow and drying thin corridor of moisture associated with it. High pressure remains sprawled across much of the Great Lakes region early this morning. The northern edge of the high cloud shield from Irma will clip our far SE CWA. Low temps tonight range from the mid 40s across interior sections of Northern Lower Michigan to the low to mid 50s across the rest of our CWA.
848 AM PDT Tue Sep 12 2017 The best coverage for showers and storms today will be across Inyo and Lincoln counties with more isolated activity possible across the higher elevations elsewhere.
610 AM CDT Tue Sep 12 2017 Continued warm and dry conditions will persist for the next few days as the region remains under an upper-level ridge extending from the Four Corners region into the Northern Plains. This ridge will prevent remnants of Irma from spreading westward into the forecast area but a few high clouds may rotate into our far southeastern counties this morning. Under the upper-level ridge, continued southerly low level flow will keep temperatures above seasonal normals with highs generally in the mid to upper 80s with a few locations hitting the lower 90s over the next few days. A strong cold front is forecast to drop into the region this weekend ahead of an approaching upper level trough.
While a few sites observed drizzle this morning, this has ended with eroding of the low clouds. Although this low was advecting cooler, drier air into our forecast area in the low levels, and the satellite presentation looks extratropical, there was still a substantial warm anomaly from 500 mb upward near the system's upper level center. As the low pulls away from our forecast area, the rain chances will gradually diminish, and we expect no rain after sunrise. Despite the expected increase in insolation, relatively cool temperatures at 850 mb will limit mixing/heating, and high temperatures will "only" be in the lower to mid 80s, which is below average for this time of year. The lower humidity and fresh breeze will make it feel rather comfortable.
920 AM EDT Tue Sep 12 2017 High pressure will remain over the region through Wednesday.
Temperatures are generally in the low to mid 80s across the area with light winds.
/issued 345 AM CDT Tue Sep 12 2017/ WV imagery shows the upper ridge centered over the Four Corners and running south into Mexico, buttressed to the west by a closed low off the CA coast. Over the next few days, the west coast trough will begin muscling into SoCal, breaking down the upper ridge. However, during that process, the ridge will move SE into West Texas and Southeast New Mexico, increasing thicknesses over the region for (likely) one last bout of triple digit weather.
Generally light WNW/NW winds this morning and less than 11 knots will gradually become more southeast then south this evening and overnight as the remnants of Irma continue to weaken and a trough develops over the lee of the Rockies. Main thing will be the return of warmer than average temperatures for the next two days, as north to northwest flow aloft continues.
1257 PM EDT Tue Sep 12 2017 High pressure will maintain VFR conditions this afternoon into tonight with just increasing mid/upper level moisture as outflow from remnants of Irma spread north into area. Zonal flow across southern Canada will do little to move the dominate ridge of high pressure thats been over the region for several days now. Another change in the weather compared to the previous few days under the ridge will be the increased cloud cover associated with the remnants of Hurricane Irma.
1109 AM EDT Tue Sep 12 2017 High pressure will remain over the region through Wednesday.
1054 AM MDT Tue Sep 12 2017 Water vapor shows flat upper ridge across the northern tier. Flat upper ridge expected to dominate our weather through Wednesday, with hot and mostly dry conditions continuing. Cooler air will then begin spilling into the cwfa behind Wednesday's wave, with upper trof continuing to dig through the Pacific Northwest through the end of the work week.
941 AM EDT Tue Sep 12 2017 High pressure will remain across the region today.
716 AM EDT Tue Sep 12 2017 Dominant high pressure will slowly slide east into the Mid Atlantic as we head into the latter half of the week. as temps will be warmer than normal for this time of year along with dry wx. afternoon temps should top out in the low to mid 80s. H8 temps look a degree or two cooler.
Under a ridge axis building into the forecast area, today will bring one last push of hot summer like weather. High temperatures will be in the vicinity of record values, ranging from the lower 80s in west central MN to near or just above 90 in parts of northwest MN, along the Red River Valley, and eastern ND. High temperatures will be a few degrees cooler, generally in the 80s. Still considerably warmer than normal, but a bit drier air in the northern valley and Devils Lake basin areas should bring a bit of relief compared to Tuesday. 500 mb trough develops over western Canada and into the northern Rockies putting our area in southwest flow aloft for the first time in a very long time.
Also notable is the record low 500 mb height for this time of year at 576 dm due to the upper low associated with the remnants of Irma.
A deep-layer ridge of high pressure will gradually build into the region from the east over the course of the TAF period, and with light steering flow a seabreeze is expected along each coast. Maximum temperatures this afternoon may reach the low 90s, typical for this time of year.
Jaszka The upper level ridge of high pressure that has generally been over the region for the past few weeks will finally break down for a few days.
This is in response to Post- Tropical Cyclone Irma moving into Northern Miss and its western shield of moisture steadily moving into our region.
This low pressure system will move west northwest during the day today. Later this afternoon high resolution models are shifting the higher pops to the west/southwest based on the track of the low. Rain most likely at CKV which will be closest to low pressure of Irma.
909 AM PDT Tue Sep 12 2017 A closed low will linger off the coast today before shifting eastward Wednesday.
1158 AM EDT Tue Sep 12 2017 High pressure will remain across the region today.
548 AM MDT Tue Sep 12 2017 A weak upper level low is seen early this morning on GOES 16 WV imagery over central Wyoming. The persistent large scale upper ridge in place over the Rockies will begin to flatten by Wednesday as a robust upper trough impinges on the Pacific NW. Heights aloft will fall and strengthening WSW flow will promote the development of lee troughing over eastern WY and western NE Wednesday afternoon.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 65 59 70 61 / 80 50 50 40 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 73 59 73 60 / 30 20 40 60 Oak Ridge, TN 71 59 68 60 / 40 30 50 70 Tri Cities Airport, TN 75 56 75 59 / 20 10 20 60.
1125 AM CDT Tue Sep 12 2017 Morning surface analysis shows the center of now-post-tropical- cyclone Irma right over the HUN CWFA, perhaps just SW of the Huntsville metro area. The interaction of these two ridges and the shearing of the remnants should continue into Wednesday with the center of the future mid- level trough as the cutoff low (former remnants) opens as a wave.
938 AM MDT Tue Sep 12 2017 High pressure over the region will maintain hot and mainly dry conditions today. A flat upper ridge will hang on for one more day. As an upper trough moves into southern British Columbia, downslope flow will slightly increase and this will lead to warmer temperatures today compared to yesterday. Wednesday will be about 5-10 degrees cooler as mid level heights falls. The highest chance PoPs will be over the west, with likely PoPs over the mountains.
516 AM MDT Tue Sep 12 2017 Water vapor shows flat upper ridge across the northern tier. Flat upper ridge expected to dominate our weather through Wednesday, with hot and mostly dry conditions continuing. Cooler air will then begin spilling into the cwfa behind Wednesday's wave, with upper trof continuing to dig through the Pacific Northwest through the end of the work week.
906 PM CST Tue Nov 28 2017 Cold front has made steady progress across the forecast area this evening, and is currently approaching the I-70 corridor. A cold front is slowly edging southeastward toward the central IL forecast area with cloud cover along and ahead of the front spreading into central IL as far east as about Taylorville to Champaign, and temperatures are peaking out or cooling slightly as a result. Dewpoints have reached the lower 40s under the cloud band which will be probably just a bit low for sprinkles which have been in the forecast from around I-72 northward, so have trimmed back wording to slight chance sprinkles and also trimmed back coverage as well.
659 PM EST Tue Nov 28 2017 High pressure will prevail through Wednesday.
630 PM EST Tue Nov 28 2017 A warm front will cross the region overnight. A cold front will approach late tonight then cross the region Wednesday.
Had to issue a Red Flag warning earlier this afternoon to account for the low humidity and strong winds across the eastern CWA. As has been the story for quite some time, sided with the higher end of guidance in regards to temperatures.
The upper level low over the Georgia/Florida state line will shift offshore the east coast of Florida by midday tomorrow.
954 PM EST Tue Nov 28 2017 High pressure will move off the New England coast overnight followed by a weak cold front on Wednesday.
436 PM MST Tue Nov 28 2017 Cooler temperatures continue into tonight and Wednesday. The small cut off upper low moves through Oklahoma and weakens into an open wave as it moves through the plains while the next upper trough moves through the Pacific Northwest and emerges over the northern High Plains Wednesday afternoon. High pressure at the surface moves across the forecast area ahead of the next lee trough deepening along the Front Range in unison with the next upper trough moving east of the Rockies on Wednesday. Conditions will remain dry with some of the cooler temperatures over the western sections of the forecast area moderating slightly on Wednesday. Southwest to southwest near surface winds on the east side of the deepening lee trough will allow warm air advection and possible some downslope warming over the western sections.
This cold front will quickly wash out and lift north Wednesday evening.
936 PM EST Tue Nov 28 2017 A cold front located across far northwest Ohio will move across the region tonight.
Evening sounding shows a bone-dry atmosphere in place, with dew points in the 20's and 30's in spite of a warmer-than-normal air mass. VFR flight rules for this TAF cycle as high pressure dominates the forecast and the region.
Some observations just south of our CWA showing some precipitation making it to the ground near DRI and for that reason, have left slight chance pops going overnight for portions of the Lower Toledo Bend and Sam Rayburn Country of Deep East Texas into West Central La. Meanwhile, looking upstream, a cold front continued to make slow but steady progress across North Texas into Central and Eastern Oklahoma. A passing cold front will bring a few showers to SE OK and SW AR after 12z.
Clearing out a bit earlier today allowed for warmer temperatures and deeper mixing, resulting in stronger wind and lower RH.
1000 PM EST Tue Nov 28 2017 High pressure centered offshore will extend west over the area tonight into Wednesday.
A cold front will move across the area late this afternoon and early this evening. High pressure will settle across the area Wednesday as winds turn easterly by afternoon. have trended highs toward the warmer mav numbers and these may end up too cool. While mixing will be limited with the high nearby.
/issued 322 PM CST Tue Nov 28 2017/ The cold front is currently from near Stillwater to Oklahoma City to Lawton to Seymour and is moving southeast through the area.
An upper level low pressure system moving east from the Southern High Plains through Wednesday will weaken significantly as it pushes across the Mid South.
However, the High Surf Advisory was pushed up a few hours earlier to account for the increased threat of sneaker waves as long period swell arrives today. Freezing levels now near 7000 ft msl will fall to around 5500 ft msl today and 3000 ft msl early Wednesday.
408 PM MST Tue Nov 28 2017 Afternoon GOES-R water vapor image loop showed split flow aloft with a mid/upper level low tracking east from northeast NM into western TX panhandle/far southwest KS.
bringing with it slight- ly drier/cooler air by mid/late Weds morning. /ISSUED 1033 AM CST Tue Nov 28 2017/ The day started a touch cooler than expected as dewpoints have been a bit sluggish to respond to now-southeasterly winds.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 42 68 47 63 / 0 0 10 60 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 40 65 43 62 / 0 0 10 60 Oak Ridge, TN 40 65 43 62 / 0 0 10 60 Tri Cities Airport, TN 34 62 39 60 / 0 0 0 50.
643 PM EST Tue Nov 28 2017 High pressure will dominate our weather pattern tonight through at least Wednesday night with dry weather and above normal temperatures.
Clouds were scarce beneath the building ridge of high pressure over the Rockies this afternoon. The arrival of cirrus will prevent temperatures from becoming significantly colder tonight, but overnight lows should still be 3 to 5 degrees cooler than last night. Cirrus will decrease from northwest to southeast during the afternoon and evening as the trough shifts east.
Coastal trough produced a few isolated showers near the coast this eve before washing out. Mid/upper low across Ne Fl will move east of the area later tonight bringing in drier and more stable air aloft to the area. High pressure will continue north of the waters producing an onshore flow.
547 PM CST Tue Nov 28 2017 A cold front has cleared southern Wisconsin with much drier air advancing southeast across the state. VFR conditions expected through tomorrow evening due to rather dry conditions that will accompany a ridge of high pressure. Wind speeds should remain on the lower side at 10kts or less. Forecast confidence is high: Clouds will exit this evening into tonight, giving way to mostly clear skies through Wednesday as high pressure moves in. Cooler temps are expected behind the departing cold front, but will still likely be a couple degrees above seasonal values.
IR imagery indicating another trough approaching the CA coast which will push through central CA late tonight and early Wednesday.
851 PM EST Tue Nov 28 2017 High pressure will remain offshore through tonight. A weak cold front will push south into the region and dissipate on Wednesday.
/issued 700 PM EST Tue Nov 28 2017/ Easterly flow, around high pressure centered well to the north, a lingering boundary over the area, and an upper level disturbance are helping to keep chances of rain in the forecast through the TAF period. /issued 420 PM EST Tue Nov 28 2017/ At the surface, WPC analysis shows a prominent 1031 mb high over New England with a cold front draped southward from the midwest to Texas.
813 PM EST Tue Nov 28 2017 Moisture starved cold front late tonight/Wednesday.
The 00Z sounding continued to indicate a dry and stable sounding, but moisture had increased in the lower levels during the day.
Early in the day strong low level jet develops and spreads from central into eastern ND ahead of an approaching upper level trough and associated surface cold front. Question is will the stronger winds aloft be able to mix down before strongest winds aloft move east and lighter winds move in with the approaching cold front. Farther west, strong west to northwest winds develop behind the cold front over western ND late morning into early afternoon, and spread east across the forecast area, reaching the James River Valley during the evening. With uncertainty remaining, we will continue the High wind watch.
High pressure continues to dominate the area, with warmer than average temperatures and dry conditions.
18Z surface data has the cold front from east of KGRB to KMCI. Breezy but dry conditions will be seen through sunset as the cold front crosses the Mississippi and moves across northern Illinois. Tonight and Wednesday, quiet and dry conditions will be seen across the area as high pressure moves through the Midwest. Wednesday night, warm air advection will sustain temperatures well above freezing.
504 PM CST Tue Nov 28 2017 Surface cold front has pushed well south of the forecast area, but remnants may meander northward again, as compact upper system moves from northeast New Mexico into southeast Kansas overnight. As high pressure moves east on Wednesday, allowing winds to return to a more southerly direction. With H8 thermal trough remaining across western Iowa and eastern Nebraska, do not expect big bounce in temperatures and trended toward more conservative max temperatures in the upper 40s and lower 50s.
/Issued 356 PM CST Tue Nov 28 2017/ Compact upper low over the Texas panhandle will move east across northeast Oklahoma late tonight and northwest Arkansas Wednesday morning. Widespread showers and isolated thunderstorms will develop in association with this system, with the greatest coverage of rain near and north of the upper low track. Considerable low cloudiness behind this system will keep temperatures Wednesday significantly cooler than those seen today.
A weak trough will bring the chance of a few light snow showers or flurries to far northern Nevada overnight.
521 PM CST Tue Nov 28 2017 Mature cyclone over the Hudson Bay with cold front through the Great Lakes into an upper closed low over the Texas Panhandle. Some high clouds filtering in from the west through the day on Wednesday as the upper trough over the Pacific Northwest moves into the western plains of Canada and brings a cold front through the northern high plains late Wednesday afternoon through the evening. Strong southwesterly flow over the north through the day Highs on Wednesday still well above the low 40s average for highs with highs in the mid 50s.
420 PM MST Tue Nov 28 2017 19z surface analysis had weak departing high pressure over the northern Plains with a developing lee trough/warm front from central MT into eastern WY. Water vapor showed split upper trough moving into the Great Lakes with next trough of interest coming onshore via BC/WA/OR. Tonight, upper trough races into the northern Rockies as warm front sharpens with 4-5mb/3hr pressure falls across the western Dakotas. Previous studies have shown this is a good setup for a downslope wind storm so have hoisted a high wind warning to account; just a wind advisory for Rapid City area with best wind on far west side of town into the higher hills. Wednesday, upper trough continues to race east pushing a cold front through the CWA.