Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
We continue to be situated southwest of the high pressure center that is hovering near the northern Great Lakes.
1043 PM CDT Sat Sep 3 2022 An amplified mid/upper ridge remains anchored across the Central Great Basin area while a mid/upper trough was drifting slowly northeastward over the Middle Mississippi Valley.
a 597dam upper level ridge remains anchored over Utah and Nevada. Low temperatures are expected to fall into the lower to middle 50s. this mornings numerous model solutions all show the upper ridge remaining centered over Utah with 850mb temperatures rising about 3F to 5F when compared to today (Sunday).
1042 PM MDT Sat Sep 3 2022 Latest analysis shows an upper level ridge over the western parts of the forecast area this afternoon. By very late in the week, the northern periphery of the ridge should flatten as upper energy crosses the northern tier.
(Today) Some patchy dense fog has developed in the lower valley areas in northwest Arkansas this morning. A few isolated thunderstorms will be possible in the higher terrain across far southeast Oklahoma this afternoon.
No sig chgs were made to the current fcst as the Mid-South wl stay under the influence of an elongated upper trof axis the next few days.
Later today, some drier air will spill south on the backside of the mid/upper level trough which should help warm the northern counties and possibly allow for some afternoon instability.
WV imagery indicates ridging aloft locked in across much of the Intermountain West. Near the surface, dominating high pressure in the Upper Midwest extends southwest into much of Kansas. Any convective redevelopment along the cold front/outflow boundary composite is expected to remain southeast of the southeast zones, across NW Oklahoma, but kept minimal slight chance pops across the far SE zones this evening to cover any stray activity wandering across the border. Surface pressures are expected to rise tonight as surface ridging builds southwest onto the high plains.
Southwesterly flow aloft remains in place as our region becomes sandwiched between a building upper- level ridge over the Western Atlantic and a deepening upper-level trough stretching from the Great Lakes to Texas. As the trough and ridge amplify throughout the period, the pressure gradient between these features strengthens, giving way to an increase in upper-level winds over the Central Gulf Coast. 1 inches on Monday (slightly lower as upper ridging attempts to nudge a bit westward). Lows will generally be in the low 70s, with mid to upper 70s along the coast.
330 AM CDT Sun Sep 4 2022 H5 pattern tonight had high pressure anchored over central Utah. A ridge extended northeast of this feature into northern portions of Saskatchewan. At the surface tonight, high pressure was the dominant feature over Nebraska, the eastern Dakotas and upper midwest.
Trough axis remains between the Rockies ridge and another ridge over the sern U. We could see the western ridge completely break down by late in the week with a stronger system tracking across southern Canada. Thereafter there is some indication the ridge could rebuild over the central U. Another chilly night in the 30s and 40s is expected tonight and even locations closer to the lakeshores will see cooler temps as winds become light and the land breeze dominates.
150 AM MDT Sun Sep 4 2022 Water vapor shows large scale ridge across the western CONUS extending into the plains, with embedded weak short wave over northwest MT. At the surface, trof associated with short wave is advancing slowly across MT/WY.
Surface dewpoints are in the low to mid 70s with PW values near 2 inches. Numerous showers and storms are expected on Labor day, with the highest chances (80-90%) east of I-65.
The forecast remains similar from the past few days for the Labor Day weekend with some degree of mainly afternoon/evening showers and storms with weak upper level low pressure remaining in place near or over the area.
With the area of high pressure aloft off to our west and a weak trough off to our east, the area remains firmly in weak northerly flow aloft keeping precipitation chances away from the region. At the surface, the area of high pressure has moved off to our northeast, which will be shifting our surface winds to be out of the southeast. Heading into the evening and overnight hours, a nice calm evening is expected with overnight lows in the lower to upper 50s. The exception to this will be areas west of the James River Valley which will be under the axis of both the 925 and 850 mb low-level jets, which will help mix down some warmer and drier air, resulting in highs in the upper 80s and lower 90s with dew points in the 50s.
(Today and tonight) Late night sfc analysis shows a trof in place across the ArkLaTex/ArkLaMiss regions while high pressure was noted over the nrn Gulf. Water vapor and 00z upper air analysis shows a trof/weakness aloft lingering over the wrn Gulf region. The combo of the trof/weakness aloft and lingering copious Gulf moisture (forecast soundings indicate PWAT values holding above 2.
Ahead of these features a moist airmass resided with surface dew points in the lower 70s and PWATs near two inches while a drier airmass with PWATs around and inch and a half along with surface dew points in the 60s resided behind the stalled boundary. With the lower heights across the region and the cloud cover associated with above normal rain chances, afternoon highs will be cooler than normal and mainly in the mid 80s today. Cloud cover and our moist airmass will help maintain warmer than normal morning lows, generally in the lower 70s.
Deep SW flow ahead of a nearly stationary upper trof will continue to feed moisture-rich air into the Ohio Valley.
Our area will remain positioned between an upper level ridge over the Great Basin and an upper level trough over the eastern half of the state. Otherwise, temperatures will be a bit warmer today- climbing into the lower to mid 90s across the Concho Valley and Big Country.
Southwesterly flow aloft remains in place as our region becomes sandwiched between a building upper-level ridge over the Western Atlantic and a deepening upper-level trough stretching from the Great Lakes to Texas. As the trough and ridge amplify throughout the period, the pressure gradient between these features strengthens, giving way to an increase in upper-level winds over the Central Gulf Coast. 1 inches on Monday (slightly lower as upper ridging attempts to nudge a bit westward). Lows will generally be in the low 70s, with mid to upper 70s along the coast.
The highest chances of seeing showers and storms will be across eastern portions of the forecast area. This upper low/trough over the region will continue to influence the forecast throughout this week.
Water vapor imagery reveals a stalled upper low near St. We have the strong upper level dome of high pressure over the Southwest/Great Basin to thank for that, with a ridge extending into the Upper Midwest.
An upper trof axis just west of the Mississippi River will deepen slightly today and increase lift for areas east of the MS River. Cloud cover and cooler daytime temperatures will temper instability, so thunderstorm intensities and coverage will be somewhat limited today. The upper trof axis will remain nearly stationary through Monday, and there will be sufficient lift for scattered to numerous showers tonight and again Monday.
(Today and tonight) The upper level pattern will remain similar to yesterday with the upper level high to our west and the troughing to the east. Overall, the synoptic pattern will keep afternoon temperatures hot with highs mostly in the low to mid 90s.
1203 AM CDT Sun Sep 4 2022 (This evening through Monday night) With a very moist and unstable air mass to go along with an upper level disturbance and surface/coastal trough widespread shower activity along with scattered storms with frequent lightning and high rainfall rates have been the rule this afternoon.
1226 AM CDT Sun Sep 4 2022 (This afternoon through Sunday night) An upper trough over the the Mississippi River Valley extends SW down across TX splitting the ridge into two region, one over UT and the other over the Atlantic Coast. This trough deepens on Sunday and helps to keep high pressure blocked to the west. Highs will be in the 80s to the lower 90s.
Tonight Through Monday H500 ridging in place across the western and southeast US continues to be divided by a cutoff low/trough staying put just northeast of the state this afternoon.
251 AM CDT Sun Sep 4 2022 We're beginning to sound like a broken record, but the upper low that's been over the region for the last few days remains, centered just to the east of St. This moisture, coupled with the weak lift associated with the upper low, has resulted in widespread stratus over SE MO and southern Illinois, along with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms overnight over southern Illinois. The upper low will remain atop the region through the holiday weekend, meandering slightly westward today. This seasonably deep moisture along with transient lift from the upper low will result in at least isolated convection though tomorrow afternoon. BSH The weather through much of the work week will hinge largely on the evolution of the upper low discussed above and a broad ridge across the western CONUS.
MSAS/LAPS analysis reveals a weak trough that is positioned over the western portions of south Texas, its axis cutting through Webb County into La Salle. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will continue today into Monday as a trough remains draped across the region, providing sufficient upper level support in concert with a weak to moderately unstable airmass. Temperatures will remain on the cooler side due to increased cloud cover and rainfall.
611 AM CDT Sun Sep 4 2022 (Today and tonight) The upper level pattern will remain similar to yesterday with the upper level high to our west and the troughing to the east. Overall, the synoptic pattern will keep afternoon temperatures hot with highs mostly in the low to mid 90s.
700 AM CDT Sun Sep 4 2022 (Today and tonight) Late night sfc analysis shows a trof in place across the ArkLaTex/ArkLaMiss regions while high pressure was noted over the nrn Gulf. Water vapor and 00z upper air analysis shows a trof/weakness aloft lingering over the wrn Gulf region. The combo of the trof/weakness aloft and lingering copious Gulf moisture (forecast soundings indicate PWAT values holding above 2.
643 AM CDT Sun Sep 4 2022 We're beginning to sound like a broken record, but the upper low that's been over the region for the last few days remains, centered just to the east of St. This moisture, coupled with the weak lift associated with the upper low, has resulted in widespread stratus over SE MO and southern Illinois, along with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms overnight over southern Illinois. The upper low will remain atop the region through the holiday weekend, meandering slightly westward today. This seasonably deep moisture along with transient lift from the upper low will result in at least isolated convection though tomorrow afternoon. BSH The weather through much of the work week will hinge largely on the evolution of the upper low discussed above and a broad ridge across the western CONUS.
Showers and thunderstorms will move newd through the area early this morning as jet ascent associated with western peripheral low pressure propagates toward the OH Valley. Showers and thunderstorm chance will continue through the day and overnight as aforementioned low pressure makes little progress in its eastward movement, allowing for a stationary front to present continuous precipitation chance.
519 AM MDT Sun Sep 4 2022 Water vapor shows large scale ridge across the western CONUS extending into the plains, with embedded weak short wave over northwest MT. At the surface, trof associated with short wave is advancing slowly across MT/WY.
606 AM CDT Sun Sep 4 2022 (Today through Monday night) Upper level high pressure over Nevada and Utah will dominate the weather across much of the Panhandles through Labor Day. There will still be one more short wave trough that may help to bring some showers and thunderstorms to the southeast Texas Panhandle this afternoon and evening. The upper level high moves ever so slightly to the east on Labor Day. This may be just enough to keep any eastern fringe short wave troughs from affecting our area.
522 AM MDT Sun Sep 4 2022 Water vapor shows large scale ridge across the western CONUS extending into the plains, with embedded weak short wave over northwest MT. At the surface, trof associated with short wave is advancing slowly across MT/WY.
Southwesterly flow aloft remains in place as the local area becomes sandwiched between a building upper-level ridge over the western Atlantic and a deepening upper-level trough stretching from the Great Lakes down toward Texas. Moisture levels decrease a tiny bit by Monday as the western Atlantic ridge aloft nudges westward toward the region and PWATs fall to 1. Guidance suggests 0-6km bulk shear values of 15-25 kts by this afternoon with 20-30 kts on Monday afternoon with the highest values over southeast Mississippi and southwest Alabama. Lows generally remain in the low 70s inland with mid to upper 70s at the beaches.
323 AM MDT Sun Sep 4 2022 We still have an expansive high pressure centered over Utah, which will keep the dry and warm conditions in place. A majority of the models are not producing much precipitation, but soundings show free convection in the higher terrain.
525 AM MDT Sun Sep 4 2022 Upper ridge of high pressure is anchored over the Great Basin this morning and stretches northeast across up into Wyoming and northern high plains.
610 AM CDT Sun Sep 4 2022 (Today) Some patchy dense fog has developed in the lower valley areas in northwest Arkansas this morning. A few isolated thunderstorms will be possible in the higher terrain across far southeast Oklahoma this afternoon.
Isolated showers and a lightning storm or two are possible along the coast, though the highest coverage of storms is once again going to be well inland and toward the west-central FL peninsula.
504 AM CDT Sun Sep 4 2022 Summary: Not as cool today and trending warmer through the rest of the week. High pressure over northeast Ontario this morning will keep mostly sunny skies in place for today. Winds will turn a bit more southerly and warmer temperatures are expected. Look for highs along the North Shore in the middle 60s to the low and middle 70s farther inland over Minnesota and Wisconsin. Relatively quiet conditions with strong northeast winds near Lake Superior are expected again for Labor Day Monday along with warmer temperatures.
439 AM MDT Sun Sep 4 2022 Upper ridge of high pressure is anchored over the Great Basin this morning and stretches northeast across up into Wyoming and northern high plains.
A ridge of high pressure will rebound across central Montana this afternoon. High pressure and wildfire smoke will maintain stable conditions across valley areas through at least the early afternoon hours, before minor improvements occur as ventilation briefly increases. Smoke visibility reductions down to 3-5 miles, typically near unhealthy levels, can cause temperatures to run 5-10 degrees cooler than you would see otherwise.
511 AM MDT Sun Sep 4 2022 We still have an expansive high pressure centered over Utah, which will keep the dry and warm conditions in place. A majority of the models are not producing much precipitation, but soundings show free convection in the higher terrain.
439 AM CDT Sun Sep 4 2022 Current surface analysis places low/trough over central Montana, with high over Ontario into Minnesota.
613 AM CDT Sun Sep 4 2022 Slow moving upper low was over the Mid Mississippi Valley region early this morning. Convection should progress steadily over west KY into southwest IN on the SE flank of the low, while over southern IL, convection will likely move little in close proximity to the low.
Latest visible satellite imagery and surface observations are showing mostly sunny skies and temperatures in the low 80's. Looks like the highest chances of storms will be over the interior with sea breeze collisions and over the Nature Coast late afternoon and evening. High pressure continues to ridge over Florida and into the eastern Gulf of Mexico with light ESE winds becoming westerly close to the coast each afternoon.
(Rest of Today) Active weather will continue today as an upper low continues to stall around SE MO. A warm front has shifted north through the forecast area this morning, and moisture is expected to increase into the afternoon. Southwest flow will persist aloft with several weak disturbances moving across the upper trough axis, resulting in multiple rounds of showers and storms today.
The Key West morning sounding found deep easterly flow rich in moisture, with PWAT over two inches and RH values in the lowest 300 mb over 80 percent. From a synoptic perspective, the climatological western Atlantic ridge has been disrupted by tropical activity and displaced westward along the eastern seaboard as part of an omega block over CONUS. The ridge to the north along the east coast has maintained boundary layer flow over the area just a bit north of east. For the past few days, the sensible weather result has been the development of cumulus lines, mainly along the Lower Keys, that has spawned afternoon showers over and around the Lower Keys and coastal waters.
612 AM CDT Sun Sep 4 2022 Summary: Not as cool today and trending warmer through the rest of the week. High pressure over northeast Ontario this morning will keep mostly sunny skies in place for today. Winds will turn a bit more southerly and warmer temperatures are expected. Look for highs along the North Shore in the middle 60s to the low and middle 70s farther inland over Minnesota and Wisconsin. Relatively quiet conditions with strong northeast winds near Lake Superior are expected again for Labor Day Monday along with warmer temperatures.
Current surface analysis places low/trough over central Montana, with high over Ontario into Minnesota.
1254 PM CDT Sun Sep 4 2022 Summary: Not as cool today and trending warmer through the rest of the week. High pressure over northeast Ontario this morning will keep mostly sunny skies in place for today. Winds will turn a bit more southerly and warmer temperatures are expected. Look for highs along the North Shore in the middle 60s to the low and middle 70s farther inland over Minnesota and Wisconsin. Relatively quiet conditions with strong northeast winds near Lake Superior are expected again for Labor Day Monday along with warmer temperatures.
Further to the southeast, over eastcentral Wisconsin, currently anticipate a stratus deck rather than fog as slightly warmer lake-modified air is expected there.
The stormy action is occurring on the favorable east side of a low pressure system that has been stalled over the Mid Ms Valley for days. The low is sandwiched between strong high pressure systems over the Atlantic and back over the western states. On Monday, the low will shift and pivot slightly, cutting down the tropical connection and moving the main focus for heavy rainfall east of our area.
The deeper moisture will continue to get pushed further south as drier air advects in from the north on the backside of the trough, which should limit the potential for any additional activity overnight.
Infrared satellite imagery revealed the scope of this anticyclone's subsidence field, with a clear sky across all of the Great Basin, Rockies, and Great Plains. Enhanced NEly midlevel flow will continue, sandwiched between the strong 597 dm midlevel high over the Great Basin, and a weak 584 dm cyclone near the Arklatex.
With the upper ridge centered over the Great Basin, and easterly flow aloft, any thunderstorm activity that forms off of the Mogollon Rim should stay to our north.
A drier airmass gradually filters over our area in the short term on the back side of an upper level trough extending from the Great Lakes across the Middle Mississippi Valley to over eastern Texas.
High pressure sitting along the Eastern Seaboard is the eastern extent of an Omega block currently sitting over CONUS.
With an seasonally anomalous thermal ridge moving into the western Dakotas, anticipating highs near central South Dakota into the lower 90s, with cooler temperatures in the upper 70s and lower 80s over western Minnesota/Iowa due to the influence of clouds and cooler east/southeast boundary layer flow.
A strong high pressure system over the western United States will remain in place through the middle of this week. High pressure will weaken toward the end of the week with decreasing temperatures and an increasing chance of thunderstorms as monsoon moisture spreads back over our area. All the usual suspects remain in play, high pressure, very warm daytime temperatures, isolated thunderstorms and easterly breezes. The main weather story over the coming days continues to be heat, thanks to the strong and persistent high pressure circulation parked over the intermountain west.
The semi- permanent upper ridge over the western states will resume it's reign over the area and keep things hot and dry across the area another day. But the flow across Montana late Monday becomes zonal and introduces a cold front.
1213 PM CDT Sun Sep 4 2022 (Today and tonight) The upper level pattern will remain similar to yesterday with the upper level high to our west and the troughing to the east. Overall, the synoptic pattern will keep afternoon temperatures hot with highs mostly in the low to mid 90s.
1241 PM CDT Sun Sep 4 2022 We're beginning to sound like a broken record, but the upper low that's been over the region for the last few days remains, centered just to the east of St. This moisture, coupled with the weak lift associated with the upper low, has resulted in widespread stratus over SE MO and southern Illinois, along with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms overnight over southern Illinois. The upper low will remain atop the region through the holiday weekend, meandering slightly westward today. This seasonably deep moisture along with transient lift from the upper low will result in at least isolated convection though tomorrow afternoon. BSH The weather through much of the work week will hinge largely on the evolution of the upper low discussed above and a broad ridge across the western CONUS.
The exception was across portions of NE Iowa where skies have gone mostly sunny leading to warmer temperatures in the mid 70s. A slow moving upper level low continues to spin from E Missouri into SC Illinois with areas of showers and some storms gyrate around the low. These clouds could generate a few showers in our S/E counties aided by any spokes of energy pinwheeling around the Mid-Mississippi Valley upper low. As for Monday highs, areas that see more in the way of breaks should see highs in the upper 70s/near 80 while areas where clouds linger will be cooler with highs around 70 to 75.
Tomorrow, we'll still be stuck in a mix of sun and cloud cover as an elongated 500 mb trough lingers from the Rust Belt to the southern plains. Luckily conditions will be dry owing to high pressure to our north.
An upper trough has supplied additional lift across the area and combined with weak, mostly parallel flow aloft will continue to support training storms and brief but intense updrafts.
We could see the western ridge completely break down by late in the week with a stronger system tracking across southern Canada. Thereafter there is some indication the ridge could rebuild over the central U. Another chilly night in the 30s and 40s is expected tonight and even locations closer to the lakeshores will see cooler temps as winds become light and the land breeze dominates.