Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE WATERS LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO NORTHEAST AND INCREASING SOME ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS.
THE 02 UTC OBSERVATIONS SHOW THAT THE COLD FRONT HAS ESSENTIALLY PASSED THROUGH OUR ENTIRE AREA, WITH NORTHERLY FLOW AND RISING SURFACE PRESSURE AT MOST SITES NOW. THAT SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES A BIT WARMER DESPITE CLEARING SKIES OVER MOST OF THE AREAS.
LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN OREGON WILL MOVE NORTH THROUGH CENTRAL INTO NORTHERN OREGON OVERNIGHT INTO EASTER SUNDAY BEFORE WEAKENING LATE SUNDAY. THE LOW WILL PRODUCE A SWATH OF PRECIPITATION ALONG ITS TRACK AND WITH LOW SNOW LEVELS. EXPECT SOME HEAVY SNOW OVER THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS ESPECIALLY ABOVE 4000 FEET.
EVERYTHING ELSE LOOKS ON TRACK WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO GET DOWN TO AROUND FREEZING ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 37 68 50 68 / 0 10 60 70 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 33 66 46 68 / 0 0 30 60 OAK RIDGE, TN 33 67 47 67 / 0 0 40 60 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 28 65 39 66 / 0 0 20 50 NC.
642 PM CDT SAT APR 4 2015 00Z TAF CYCLE AN UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE PANHANDLES SUNDAY.
EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WILL PROMOTE GOOD NIGHTTIME COOLING CONDITIONS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. BUT THE POSITIONING OF THE HIGH CENTER TO OUR NORTH IS SUCH THAT A SLIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT MAY NOT ALLOW FOR OPTIMAL COOLING. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE SUNDAY MORNING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT WITH RAIN CHANCES ON THE INCREASE BY AFTERNOON.
WITH DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN THE LOWER 30S AND LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT.
/ISSUED 224 PM CDT SAT APR 4 2015/ COLD FRONT SLOWING DOWN ACROSS THE N GULF JUST S OF THE 60NM COASTAL MARINE ZONE. THIS IS ABOUT THE FURTHEST SOUTH THE HIGH WILL BUILD. SHIFTING MORE EAST THEN SOUTHEAST AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN SUNDAY AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE INTERACTS WITH THE FRONT MOVING BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT.
WILL ASSESS THE LOWS A BIT LATER THIS EVENING ONCE THE INVERSION BECOMES MORE ESTABLISHED. WITH DEW POINTS MAINLY IN THE 20S WITH EVEN A FEW UPPER TEENS DEW POINTS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE SOUTHEAST. SKIES REMAINED CLEAR THIS AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES HAD REACHED THE LOW TO MID 50S. WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER RH IN THE HIGHEST TERRAIN NEAR THE VA BORDER AND NEAR THE INTERSTATE 64 CORRIDOR. WITH LOW 30S ON RIDGETOPS AND IN MORE OPEN TERRAIN AREA. THE LOW LEVELS WILL BE DRY. A CARRYOVER FROM THE RIDGING EXITING AND THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL HAVE A DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT.
837 PM EDT SAT APR 4 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND IN TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THIS ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN THE SUBTROPICAL JET. WITH MUCH WETTER AND COOLER CONDITIONS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF EASTER SUNDAY. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER NRN OLD MEXICO TO MOVE E THROUGH SUNDAY IN THE SUBTROPICAL JET TO PROVIDE SCT SHOWERS AND PERHAPS EVEN A TSTM BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH MVFR CEILINGS.
07 /ISSUED 303 PM CDT SAT APR 4 2015/ 19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE LOWER 40S ACROSS THE AREA.
657 PM CDT Sat Apr 4 2015 /00Z TAFS/ Ceilings expected to gradually fall to MVFR and eventually IFR overnight as warm front moves through (except for MVFR ceilings at KABI). /ISSUED 335 PM CDT Sat Apr 4 2015/ (Tonight and Sunday) Latest analysis indicates a weak ridge over the southeastern US with southwesterly flow aloft across west Texas. Overnight lows will be a few degrees warmer than the last couple days. mainly in the lower to mid 50s.
1040 PM EDT SAT APR 4 2015 HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY RESIDING ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH. WHILE BROADER VALLEYS AND RIDGETOPS ARE REPORTING LOW TO MID 40S. WILL ASSESS THE LOWS A BIT LATER THIS EVENING ONCE THE INVERSION BECOMES MORE ESTABLISHED. WITH DEW POINTS MAINLY IN THE 20S WITH EVEN A FEW UPPER TEENS DEW POINTS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE SOUTHEAST. SKIES REMAINED CLEAR THIS AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES HAD REACHED THE LOW TO MID 50S. WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER RH IN THE HIGHEST TERRAIN NEAR THE VA BORDER AND NEAR THE INTERSTATE 64 CORRIDOR. WITH LOW 30S ON RIDGETOPS AND IN MORE OPEN TERRAIN AREA. THE LOW LEVELS WILL BE DRY. A CARRYOVER FROM THE RIDGING EXITING AND THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL HAVE A DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT.
OR ABOVE FREEZING. AS LOW PRESSURE OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE WEST COAST GRADIENT FLOW INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA DIRECTED MORE FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION AS THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE CENTER MOVES ONSHORE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST STATES EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO EXPECTED AS THIS TROUGH MOVES OVERHEAD. FRUIT GROWERS AND GARDENERS IN THE GRAND VALLEY AND OTHER WEST-CENTRAL CO AND SOUTHEAST UT VALLEYS SHOULD AGAIN REMAIN ALERT TO POSSIBILITY OF BELOW FREEZING OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES LATE THIS WEEK AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE TROUGH. STRONGER WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON CREATING AREAS OF MODERATE TURBULENCE OVER RIDGES GENERALLY AFTER 18Z.
AEX WHICH IS AWAY FROM THE LOW LEVEL MOIST AXIS SHOULD REMAIN VFR. IFR CIGS WILL DOMINATE THE SOUTHERN TIER TERMINALS SUNDAY MORNING AS A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT SLIPS THROUGH, SLOWLY LIFTING TO MVFR. AEX SHOULD SEE MVFR DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT RAIN EARLY SUNDAY EVENING AS A FRONTAL WAVE BRINGS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BACK AS A WARM FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT. A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FROM THE NORTHEAST BEFORE SUNRISE. KEEPING LOW CIGS THROUGH THE MORNING WITH AGAIN THE EXCEPTION OF AEX WHERE THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS TO THE SOUTH. AND WITH DEWPOINTS NOW IN THE LOWER 50S ACROSS THE I-10 CORRIDOR. THIS WILL HOLD THE TEMPERATURES AROUND 5 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY.
1054 PM CST SAT FEB 14 2015 TRACKING THE COLD FRONT USING SURFACE OBS AND 3. HOWEVER THE REMINDER THAT THIS IS ACTUALLY WINTER IS QUICKLY APPROACHING AS A COLD FRONT OVER NORTHEASTERN KANSAS BACKDOORS INTO THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING. POST FRONTAL STRATUS WILL QUICKLY MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND UPSLOPE LOW-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD HOLD MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S IN THE EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE TO THE LOWER 50S IN THE SOUTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLE. AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN OLD MEXICO WILL LIFT NORTHEAST BEFORE MERGING WITH AN IMPULSE ROTATING AROUND AN UPPER LOW NEAR HUDSON BAY. WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER TEENS TO THE LOWER 20S.
/ISSUED 703 PM EST SAT FEB 14 2015/ WITH SEAS SUBSIDING THIS EVENING, THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AND THE HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS HAVE BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. WINDS VEER SLIGHTLY LATE SUNDAY PM WITH THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER DRY COLD FRONT. THE LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE A SLIGHT WARMING TREND TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES WEST OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND INTO INTERIOR COLLIER COUNTY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER 40'S. MINIMUM WIND CHILLS WILL BE IN GENERAL A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER THAN THE AMBIENT TEMPERATURES.
1103 PM CST SAT FEB 14 2015 FOR 06Z TAFS /ISSUED 826 PM CST SAT FEB 14 2015/ THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT IS PASSING THRU THE SCOTTSBORO-HUNTSVILLE- RUSSELLVILLE AREAS AT THIS HOUR. ARCTIC COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PRESS TO THE SOUTH WITH NORTH WINDS GUSTING AT 20-25KT.
A cold front will move through the area Sunday night, and may impact KHOB just prior to the end of the forecast period, but will otherwise be addressed in later TAF issuances.
1143 PM CST SAT FEB 14 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BECOMING NORTHEAST 10 KNOTS ON SUNDAY.
RAP, NAM, AND GFS WERE ALL IN DECENT AGREEMENT MOVING AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SOUTHEAST FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES BY LATE TODAY. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE CLOUDY TODAY BASED THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEING PRESENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN KANSAS, ALONG WITH INCREASING MID LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. GIVEN THIS CLOUD COVER AND LITTLE WARMING EXPECTED IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL STAY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IN KEEPING HIGHS TODAY SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW THE COOLEST GUIDANCE. TONIGHT BOTH THE GFS AND NAM MOVES AN AREA OF 700MB TO 500MB FRONTGENESIS ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.
LOW PRESSURE WILL PROGRESS EAST THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.
RAP, NAM, AND GFS WERE ALL IN DECENT AGREEMENT MOVING AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SOUTHEAST FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES BY LATE TODAY. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE CLOUDY TODAY BASED THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEING PRESENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN KANSAS, ALONG WITH INCREASING MID LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. GIVEN THIS CLOUD COVER AND LITTLE WARMING EXPECTED IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL STAY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IN KEEPING HIGHS TODAY SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW THE COOLEST GUIDANCE. TONIGHT BOTH THE GFS AND NAM MOVES AN AREA OF 700MB TO 500MB FRONTOGENESIS ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.
BUT LACK OF SNOW ACROSS THE AREA SHOULD LEAD TO WARMER TEMPS. HAVE SIDED WITH WARMER GUIDANCE VALUES FOR TODAY. WITH WARMER AIR TEMPORARILY WORKING INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY IF NOT RISE SOME THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE IN THE EAST WHERE IT WILL TAKE LONGER FOR THE WARMER AIR TO ARRIVE. LINGERING CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF THE TROUGH COULD KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING SUBSTANTIALLY. OVERALL PATTERN BEGINS WITH A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE PACIFIC WITH ANOTHER LOW OVER HUDSON BAY.
1246 AM EST SUN FEB 15 2015 AN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR SUNDAY.
/ISSUED 906 PM CST SAT FEB 14 2015/ A WARM AFTERNOON HAS LEAD TO A WARMER EVENING. AROUND 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN 24 HOURS AGO. AND THE WESTERN GULF-CENTERED HIGH PRESSURE KEEPS WINDS UNDER 5 KNOTS. THE BUST OF NO SIGNIFICANT FOG DEVELOPMENT WILL COME IF THIS WESTERN CIRRUS RIDING ATOP FLATTENED MID-LEVEL RIDGING THICKENS UP ENOUGH TO INHIBIT RADIATIVE COOLING. A COOLER AND CLOUDIER DAY TOMORROW WITH INCREASING RAIN CHANCES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH FROM THE AFTERNOON ONWARD.
1218 AM EST SUN FEB 15 2015 A LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND INTENSIFY OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON SUNDAY. THIS LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL BRING A LIGHT FLUFFY SNOW TO THE NORTH COUNTRY OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING.
VERY COLD/DRY ARCTIC AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER SOUTHWARD INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION THIS EVENING TO THE EAST OF ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ALONG THE MANITOBA/ONTARIO BORDER. THE COLD NORTHERLY WINDS OVER THE NORTHLAND THIS AFTERNOON WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN INTO TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE IN MANITOBA MOVES INTO THE LAKE SUPERIOR REGION. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING IN THE WAKE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE AND AS A TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS APPROACHES THE UPPER MIDWEST.
However, the showers that did occur farther north made roads somewhat wet, so temperatures falling below freezing will make roads in Cut Bank and the surrounding areas slick and/or icy after midnight. However, the showers in Cut Bank have cooled temperatures a bit quicker there, so have lowered the low a few degrees there. Helena has also cooled a bit quicker than expected, with the cold front passing through that area earlier this evening. Have therefore lowered the low a few degrees there as well. Scattered rain and snow showers are developing in the wake of a cold front across north-central Montana this evening including near KHLN/KCTB/KHVR/KLWT terminals.
Experience shows this latter issue is often under-forecast as the warm layer is often warmer than anticipated.
However, the showers that did occur farther north made roads somewhat wet, so temperatures falling below freezing will make roads in Cut Bank and the surrounding areas slick and/or icy after midnight. However, the showers in Cut Bank have cooled temperatures a bit quicker there, so have lowered the low a few degrees there. Helena has also cooled a bit quicker than expected, with the cold front passing through that area earlier this evening. Have therefore lowered the low a few degrees there as well. Precipitation will remain intermittent through Sunday, however as another surge of moist and cooler air pushes into the region, precipitation will become more widespread and changeover to primarily light snow.
Outside of these bands, it will likely take longer to saturate the lower levels and snowfall amounts will not be as much.
1145 PM CST SAT FEB 14 2015 COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN PLAINS INTO NORTH CENTRAL US. A STRONG BACKDOOR COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. A MAJOR LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS IMPACTING THE EASTERN CONUS. THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL ALONG THE FRONT RANGE THIS EVENING. MEANWHILE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES. WHERE THE LOWER STRATUS PERSISTS ACROSS THE WEST. TOWARDS MORNING THE COLD FRONT WILL MODIFY INTO A WARM FRONT AND PUSH EAST AS THE HIGH CONTINUES TO DRIFT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. AS THE FRONT PUSHES EAST EXPECT A PUSH BACK OF THE LOWER STRATUS TO EAST.
LOWER CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH VERY EARLY SUN MORNING. HI RES GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS COASTAL ALABAMA AND INLAND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THE FOG WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA FROM THE NORTH.
350 AM CST SUN FEB 15 2015 THE DRY ARCTIC AIR RULES WITH A LARGE AREA OF VERY DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS IS KEEPING THE SNOW SEEN ON RADAR FROM REACHING THE GROUND WITH MALF BASES TO 040.
THE FIRST COMPLICATION WILL BE THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OOZING INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN PANHANDLE. A DEEPENING SURFACE CYCLONE OVER SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO WILL LEAD TO PRESSURE FALLS OVER THIS AREA.
347 AM EST SUN FEB 15 2015 HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY SLIDING TO THE EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC WILL LEAD TO A SLOW WARMING TREND EARLY THIS WEEK.
THOUGH TEMPERATURES HAVE HIT THE LOWER 70S ACROSS THE PLAINS AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE. IN SPITE OF SOME MINOR QPF INDICATED IN THE LOCAL 4 KM WRF AND THE HIGH RES NMM. WHILE WESTERN MOUNTAINS/VALLEYS COOL OFF SLIGHTLY AS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ADVECTS COOLER AIR MASS IN AS WELL.
839 PM PST SAT FEB 14 2015 High pressure will dominate the weather through midweek, delivering dry conditions and mild temperatures.
AND FREEZING RAIN AT KHOT. SOUTH TAFS WILL START RAIN THEN GRADUALLY BECOME FREEZING RAIN AFTER 06Z.
1155 PM CST SAT FEB 14 2015 BOUNDARY FROM LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HAS PUSHED WELL SOUTH OF IOWA BY LATE AFTERNOON.
1047 PM CST SAT FEB 14 2015 GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS ARE FOLLOWING A COLD FRONT. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AFTER 160000 AND A CHANCE FOR RAIN IN SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA. /ISSUED 844 PM CST SAT FEB 14 2015/ COLD FRONT HAS MOVED ACROSS APPROXIMATELY THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FA. /ISSUED 558 PM CST SAT FEB 14 2015/ A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING BRINGING GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS.
458 AM EST SUN FEB 15 2015 THE COLD PRESSURE RIDGE APPROACHING FORM THE NORTHWEST WILL EXTEND THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT.
1244 AM EST SUN FEB 15 2015 A LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND INTENSIFY OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON SUNDAY. THIS LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL BRING A LIGHT FLUFFY SNOW TO THE NORTH COUNTRY OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING.
A strong cold front currently stretched across Oklahoma will take its time moving south today, reaching our area tonight.
/ISSUED 936 PM CST SAT FEB 14 2015/ CURRENT FIRST PERIOD ELEMENTS IN GOOD SHAPE AS THE STRONG COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH ALL BY FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT HAS ARRIVED. TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY IN THE LOWER 30S ACROSS NORTHERN ALABAMA AND DROPPING RAPIDLY.
258 AM CST SUN FEB 15 2015 06Z SFC ANALYSIS HAS HIGH PRESSURE FROM MINNESOTA INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS IS THE RESULT OF AN AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WITH A WEST COAST RIDGE AND EASTERN NORTH AMERICAN TROUGH.
MIDNIGHT UPDATE WAS ISSUED TO EXPIRE THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY OVER THE RIDGE ZONES AS SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES ARE ALL THAT REMAIN AS DRY ADVECTION AND SUBSIDENCE CONTINUE TO ERODE THE POTENTIAL FOR FURTHER ACCUMULATION. READINGS REMAIN MARGINAL AT BEST OUTSIDE OF THE RIDGES. ALREADY FRIGID TEMPERATURES WILL FURTHER PLUMMET AFTER NIGHTFALL AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EASTWARD AND WIND CONTINUES TO DIMINISH.
HIGH A WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AS THE UPPER FLOW OVER SOUTHERN WISCONSIN BECOMES MORE ZONAL AND THE STRONG JET MAX MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. THE 925 MB RH INCREASES AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE EAST. WIND CHILLS ARE STILL NEAR OR IN THE LOW END OF THE ADVISORY CRITERIA. OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN WINDS HAVE DECOUPLED IN MANY AREAS AS THE RIDGE BUILDS IN.
1126 PM EST SAT FEB 14 2015 THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON ARRIVES TONIGHT BEHIND AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT THAT PUSHED SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA EARLIER.
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE AREAS WEATHER WITH DRY CONDITIONS TONIGHT. LIGHT WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES WILL RESULT IN GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING PRODUCING PATCHY FOG IN LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN.
1015 PM PST SAT FEB 14 2015 High pressure will dominate the weather through midweek, delivering dry conditions and mild temperatures.
THE THERMAL TROUGH IS EXPANDING NORTH ALONG SOUTHERN OREGON COAST UP TO AROUND BANDON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTHWEST OF THE WATERS. AT THE SAME TIME A THERMAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN SUNDAY.
FURTHER WEST A 500MB TROUGH AND AN AREA OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE WAS PRESENT FROM NORTHERN IDAHO/EASTERN WASHINGTON INTO SOUTHEAST BRITISH COLUMBIA. OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS A 850MB COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM SOUTHEAST WYOMING, ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS TO NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA. THE SURFACE COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM NORTHERN ARKANSAS TO SOUTHEAST COLORADO. THIS GREAT LAKES UPPER TROUGH HAS PUSHED AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT INTO SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS WITH GUSTY NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS AT 20 TO 30 MPH. THE GUSTY EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE TO AROUND 10 TO 12 MPH BY MORNING, AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES, AND AS THE COLD HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS BUILD INTO THE AREA. LIGHT EAST WINDS BECOME NORTHEAST AS THE RIDGE AXIS CONTINUES TO PUSH INTO WESTERN KANSAS.
/TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/ WEAK UPPER LOW OVER WEST TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON WILL GENERALLY REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. MEANWHILE AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL SPLIT INTO TWO PIECES. THE NORTHERN PLAINS SYSTEM WILL AID IN PUSHING A WEAK COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA FRIDAY. ANY CONVECTION SHOULD BE CONFINED ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO. TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER ESPECIALLY TO AREAS ON THE CAPROCK WHERE THE COOLING EFFECTS FROM THIS FRONT WILL BE GREATEST. RANGING FROM THE LOWER 60S TO THE LOWER 70S. LOWS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 30S TO THE LOWER 40S.
425 PM EDT THU MAR 12 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVERNIGHT.
352 PM EDT THU MAR 12 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE FAIR AND DRY WEATHER ACROSS CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY.
143 PM EDT THU MAR 12 2015 A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM.
High pressure will quickly rebuild tonight and further strengthen on Friday.
CENTRAL AND WESTERN KANSAS HAVE BEEN NEARLY CLOUD FREE TODAY AS MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW HAS MAINLY STAYED IN THE EASTERN PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS DURING THE MORNING HOURS.
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO 353 PM MDT THU MAR 12 2015 UPPER TROF WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE SHORT TERM. TRENDS THROUGH THIS EVENING WILL BE FOR SHOWERS TO INCREASE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AS THE TROF AXIS MOVES ACROSS. STILL THINK THE 2-6 INCH SNOW AMOUNTS ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WITH THE HEAVIER AMOUNTS ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. PRECIPITATION TYPE ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. NORTHERN STREAM TROF PULLS AWAY TO THE EAST ON FRIDAY AS BROAD SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER TROF/CLOSED LOW SLOWLY SAGS TO THE SOUTH. WILL KEEP SCATTERED SHOWERS GOING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND SOME INSTABILITY. -KT UPPER RIDGING RETURNS FOR THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL.
LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO CLOSE TO HOUSTON TEXAS. AS THE LOW TRACKS NORTH TONIGHT THROUGH WESTERN LOUISIANA AND INTO SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS BY FRIDAY MORNING MORE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. ON FRIDAY AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS WESTERN ARKANSAS MORE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. THE LOW TAKES A MORE NORTHEASTWARD TRACK ACROSS NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AND AS IT DOES IT BEGIN TO DRAG A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION WITH MORE RAIN SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
334 PM CDT THU MAR 12 2015 THE SHORT TERM CONCERN REMAINS THE TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT TREND ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT. MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE INCOMING TROUGH REMAINS LOCKED ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT THIS CLOUD TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE TROUGH AND SURFACE FRONT MOVES IN. THE COLD FRONT EXITS TO THE EAST OF THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING WITH INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPING IN THE CAA REGIME. TWO COLD FRONTS WILL BRING DOWN TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO CLIMATOLOGY.
124 PM EDT THU MAR 12 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TODAY AND PROVIDE THE REGION WITH A TYPICALLY NICE SPRING DAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.
136 PM EDT THU MAR 12 2015 THE STABLE ANTICYCLONE WILL SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST COAST TONIGHT MAINTAINING QUIET AVIATION WEATHER OVER SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN. THIS PROCESS WILL NUDGE THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILE DOWN A NOTCH RELATIVE TO YESTERDAY. CONFLUENCE OF THE WARMER AIRMASS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY AND MUCH HIGHER THETA-E CONTENT AIR TO THE SOUTH IN ASSOCIATION WITH CUTOFF ENERGY OVER TEXAS WILL OCCUR OVER SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN ON FRIDAY. EASTERN LOCATIONS ARE LIKELY TO BE COOLER DUE TO LAKE SHADOWING WITHIN SOUTHERLY FLOW.
SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE STILL RESIDES IN THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO NEAR LAKE CHARLES. A WARM FRONT HAS MADE SLOW PROGRESS NORTH INTO THE AREA AND REMAINS ACROSS THE HIGHWAY 98 TO 84 CORRIDORS. MANY LOCATIONS HAVE BEEN ABLE TO REACH INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S. BRINGING THE WARM FRONT NORTHWARD AS WELL.
312 PM CDT THU MAR 12 2015 THE CWA WAS WEDGED BETWEEN A LOW PRESSURE TO THE NW OVER SD AND A HIGH PRESSURE OVER LAKE HURON. THE LOW TO THE NW IS EXPECTED TO SWING SE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AND MERGE WITH A SYSTEM TO THE SOUTH TO BRING US CLOUDS AND EVEN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SPRINKLES ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN ZONES OF THE CWA TOMORROW.
The upper air pattern across the US shows a ridge along the West Coast. a deep trough in the Central US and a ridge along the East Coast. An upper low will form over West Texas and retrograde SW through Mexico to near Southern Baja by Sat morning.
RIDGE WILL SLIDE EASTWARD TO NEW ENGLAND AS NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES ON FRIDAY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER TROF EXTENDING DOWN INTO CENTRAL MEXICO WITH STRONG SURGE OF MOISTURE UP THROUGH THE GULF ON THE EASTERN FLANK. WITH GRADUAL INC IN MID-HIGH CLOUDS IN THE SOUTH HAVE TRENDED TOWARD M-U30S WHILE TEMPS WILL BE NEAR FREEZING MARK IN NE CWA.
THEY ARE FLUCTUATING BETWEEN SCT/BKN AT THE LOWEST LEVELS.
140 PM EDT THU MAR 12 2015 AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL PULL MOISTURE AND INCREASING SHOWERS CHANCES FOR TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
1150 AM MDT THU MAR 12 2015 CURRENT WATER VAPOR AND IR SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS A WEAK PACIFIC TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN REGION. ANY DYNAMIC FORCING IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL NOT LAST FOR TOO LONG. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER COMPARED TO YESTERDAY AND GENERALLY IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS AS THE FRONT QUICKLY MOVES EAST ACROSS THE AREA. MODELS INDICATE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING BACK INTO THE GREAT BASIN REGION AND NORTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAINS BEGINNING ON FRIDAY.