Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Low level lift around the surface cold front will continue to produce clouds and scattered light rain for a few more hours especially in SW FL areas. Cooler and drier high pressure finally building into the region this evening for pleasant weather conditions overnight and Friday. (00Z TAFS) Lingering MVFR stratus clouds and light rain with MVFR vsbys on post cold front NW-N winds to continue over the terminals through 04-06Z before clearing overnight. A strong cold front continues to push eastward through Florida through the day. The front will be located over southern Florida by early Friday morning allowing for high pressure to ridge in from the northwest.
528 PM CST Thu Dec 15 2022 (This evening through Friday) The broad upper trough, centered over southern Minnesota, slowly heads into Wisconsin and our area remains under northwest flow.
The weather will be pretty quiet on Friday behind the departing trough under northerly flow aloft.
341 PM CST Thu Dec 15 2022 Low pressure centered over the Twin Cities will remain nearly stationary overnight.
543 PM CST Thu Dec 15 2022 Tonight and Friday: Mainly dry conditions will persist over the next 24 hours as surface ridging builds across the Gulf Coast and Deep South. These clouds may try to precipitate, but they will be fighting dry air in the low levels, with 30s dewpoints at the surface. The guidance is showing a similar pattern compared to yesterday with current model guidance highlighting a large closed low spinning over Wisconsin.
(This evening through Friday) The broad upper trough, centered over southern Minnesota, slowly heads into Wisconsin and our area remains under northwest flow.
811 PM CST Thu Dec 15 2022 A broad trough has enveloped much of the CONUS as a deep, occluded low is anchored over the Upper Midwest.
The strong upper low that brought snow to the Northern Plains continues to linger over southern Minnesota. As a result the surface pressure gradient has tightened up as the low has drifted southeastward. The upper low that brought major impacts to the Northern Plains will finally exit the region moving eastward into the great lakes this weekend.
251 PM PST Thu Dec 15 2022 High pressure will continue to block storms from reaching the Sierra and western Nevada through the weekend.
905 PM EST Thu Dec 15 2022 A winter storm will impact Central PA with a mixed bag of freezing rain, sleet and snow for the rest of tonight into Friday. Any remaining mixed precip will taper to some scattered light rain/snow showers during the late morning to early afternoon hours with temps rebounding into the mid-upper 30s north and west, and reaching the low 40s across the SE. With most areas just above freezing, snow will be the main concern over much of the area into this evening. There could be some light freezing drizzle across the west late tonight, once the precipitation becomes lighter and more spotty.
831 PM EST Thu Dec 15 2022 High pressure has settled in across the CWA. We could see some additional cloud cover across the North overnight, as a result of the main parent upper low pushing across the Upper Midwest States and Great Lakes Region. High pressure will build across the region overnight and persist through Friday resulting in mostly dry conditions and much cooler conditions overnight.
Upper level trough will continue to dig to our east and that will keep enhanced north and east winds over the southern Cascade and northern Sacramento Valley into tomorrow morning. We will also see cold morning temperatures once again, they should be a few degrees cooler than what we saw this morning. Quiet and cool weather will continue through the weekend as we'll remain between the eastern Pacific ridge and deeper troughing to the east.
700 PM EST Thu Dec 15 2022 A winter storm will impact Central PA with a mixed bag of freezing rain, sleet and snow for the rest of tonight into Friday. Mixed precip will taper to some scattered light rain/snow showers during the late morning to early afternoon hours with temps rebounding into the mid-upper 30s north and west, and reaching the low 40s across the SE. With most areas just above freezing, snow will be the main concern over much of the area into this evening. There could be some light freezing drizzle across the west late tonight, once the precipitation becomes lighter and more spotty.
Like yesterday, bitter cold swept the high country this morning. The coldest high elevation basins dipped into the negative teens, while most the rest of the high country bottomed out in the single digits. Gusty northerly winds at the tallest mountain peaks kept temperatures relatively warmer, but created biting wind chill values. These winds may gust 20-30 mph across the highest terrain.
526 PM CST Thu Dec 15 2022 (Today and tonight) A weak cold front is currently located across the Big Country and will continue to sag south overnight. Winds are light from the northeast behind the front and temperatures are slightly cooler. The aforementioned weak cold front will continue to slowly sag south and stall somewhere near or just south if I-10 Friday afternoon.
508 PM CST Thu Dec 15 2022 (This afternoon through Friday) A broad trough will move across the Ohio Valley through the short term. with Alabama positioned in the base of this trough. Low temperatures tonight will be in the low to mid 30s.
211 PM PST Thu Dec 15 2022 Freezing fog will continue for the next couple days as a drier pattern sets up.
512 PM CST Thu Dec 15 2022 Low pressure centered over the Twin Cities will remain nearly stationary overnight.
Discussion: In the upper levels, a broad trough is over the Eastern U.
1026 PM EST Thu Dec 15 2022 A winter storm will impact Central PA with a mixed bag of freezing rain, sleet and snow for the rest of tonight into Friday. Any remaining mixed precip will taper to some scattered light rain/snow showers during the late morning to early afternoon hours with temps rebounding into the mid-upper 30s north and west, and reaching the low 40s across the SE. With most areas just above freezing, snow will be the main concern over much of the area into this evening. There could be some light freezing drizzle across the west late tonight, once the precipitation becomes lighter and more spotty.
358 AM EST Fri Dec 16 2022 Coastal low pressure will track slowly north, up the middle Atlantic and southern New England coast through tonight.
Satellite imagery shows an area of cooler cloud tops over the eastern UP and Keweenaw coincident with generally light radar returns ahead of this wave. Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb closed low over the western U. Troughing remains over the area through 12z Mon. In the extended, the GFS and ECMWF show a 500 mb trough over the northern Rockies 12z Mon which moves into the northern Mississippi River Valley 12z Tue. Troughing remains over the area 12z Wed and then a deep trough moves into the northern and central plains 12z Thu which moves into Ohio Valley 12z Fri.
Issued by National Weather Service Little Rock AR 1220 AM CST Fri Dec 16 2022 A broad trough has enveloped much of the CONUS as a deep, occluded low is anchored over the Upper Midwest.
245 AM EST Fri Dec 16 2022 Coastal low pressure will track slowly north, up the middle Atlantic and southern New England coast through tonight.
Similar to yesterday, look for afternoon highs mainly up into the 30s(F) while lows tonight drop back down into the teens(F) to possibly the lower 20s(F) in south central Kansas.
WV imagery indicates a large closed upper low anchored across the Upper Midwest. Near the surface, a small area of high pressure is situated across southeast Colorado. The big upper low is over Minnesota Today while the intense westerly upper jet is focused from the four corners region into the Red River valley of TX/OK. A bit of a trough over the central Rockies is advecting some mid to high level thick cloud cover eastward into west central KS.
959 PM CST Thu Dec 15 2022 (This evening through Friday) The broad upper trough, centered over southern Minnesota, slowly heads into Wisconsin and our area remains under northwest flow.
1231 AM EST Fri Dec 16 2022 Forecast remains on track as cold front pushes south of the region. Sunny skies and much cooler on Friday as Northwest around 10 mph hold Max temps into the lower 60s across SE GA and middle 60s across NE FL.
1009 PM EST Thu Dec 15 2022 A winter storm will impact Central PA with a mixed bag of freezing rain, sleet and snow for the rest of tonight into Friday. Any remaining mixed precip will taper to some scattered light rain/snow showers during the late morning to early afternoon hours with temps rebounding into the mid-upper 30s north and west, and reaching the low 40s across the SE. With most areas just above freezing, snow will be the main concern over much of the area into this evening. There could be some light freezing drizzle across the west late tonight, once the precipitation becomes lighter and more spotty.
Temperatures will rise into the low-to-mid 40s across much of the area during the day.
/EC/ Tonight and Friday: Mainly dry conditions will persist over the next 24 hours as surface ridging builds across the Gulf Coast and Deep South. These clouds may try to precipitate, but they will be fighting dry air in the low levels, with 30s dewpoints at the surface. The guidance is showing a similar pattern compared to yesterday with current model guidance highlighting a large closed low spinning over Wisconsin.
(Today and tonight) Temps as of 1 AM have already dropped to freezing or below across the FA with a few sites, Muleshoe and Olton, have been or are in the upper teens. This will keep winds light and, thanks to clearing skies this evening, will allow temps to drop into the teens across much of the Caprock and the low 20s off the Caprock.
Northwest flow aloft is expected to shift more towards the WNW this evening as a secondary trough axis moves over the High Plains and Rockies on Friday. As the upper trough axis sweeps over the area Friday, skies are expected to clear out, helping to further melt the snow on the ground. Overnight lows will be in the low single digits to mid teens.
1047 PM CST Thu Dec 15 2022 (This afternoon through Friday night) The upper-level low pressure system that brought and continues to bring severe weather across the Deep South remains nearly stationary over the Upper Midwest. Another chilly night is expected as most locations fall to near or below freezing.
1136 PM CST Thu Dec 15 2022 Deep and slow moving low pressure will continue to impact the region tonight and Friday as wrap around moisture overtakes the Northland, yielding continued light snow across northwest Wisconsin and northeast Minnesota tonight. Some drizzle or freezing drizzle may mix in where ice crystal presence is reduced in the column. As colder air wraps into the region on Friday, lake effect processes will become more efficient, with an additional 2 to 5 inches of snow forecast for the higher terrain of the North Shore.
1051 PM CST Thu Dec 15 2022 (Today and tonight) A weak cold front is currently located across the Big Country and will continue to sag south overnight. Winds are light from the northeast behind the front and temperatures are slightly cooler. The aforementioned weak cold front will continue to slowly sag south and stall somewhere near or just south if I-10 Friday afternoon.
Even though a widespread is not expected tonight, lows will be in the lower to middle 30s across Central Alabama.
Clear skies cover interior NorCal early this morning as clouds associated with the offshore closed low well to our west-southwest remain to the south of the area.
(Today through Saturday) High pressure reigns supreme through the short term, bringing mostly sunny skies and moderate temps in the 50s across north and central Georgia.
645 AM EST Fri Dec 16 2022 Coastal low pressure will track slowly north, up the middle Atlantic and southern New England coast through tonight. Chilly high pressure will build across the region today into Saturday.
(Today) Large upper low, currently just west of the Great Lakes region, will remain quasi-stationary today.
506 AM CST Fri Dec 16 2022 (Today) Large upper low, currently just west of the Great Lakes region, will remain quasi-stationary today.
(Today through Saturday afternoon) A broad, upper level trough is centered over the Upper Midwest and extends across most of the country. A cold front will push into the area today resulting in high temperatures mostly in the 40s and 50s.
As far as highs, readings will stay in the 20's over snow covered areas of the plains, while closer to the foothills readings will reach the lower to mid 30s. Overnight, cross-barrier flow will increase to the 30-35 kt range over the higher terrain, so will see gusty winds from 50 to 60 mph at times in the foothills and mtn areas.
619 AM EST Fri Dec 16 2022 A large scale upper level low will rotate slowly east across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley through Saturday.
Some moisture advection in the low levels is occurring courtesy of the afore-mentioned frontal boundary extending from the Indiana/Illinois border south into western Tennessee and northeastern Texas. Though expect some mixing of drier air aloft, boundary layer moisture advection should keep dewpoints from dropping into the lower/mid 20s this afternoon.
236 AM MST Fri Dec 16 2022 Light snow continues across the immediate Montana and North Dakota border as low pressure gradually shifts downstream of the region. Do expect that the winds will begin to relax later this morning and especially this afternoon as the low pressure system inches further away. Next, attention turns to a strong cold front arriving on Saturday, and that system may deliver additional accumulating snowfall to the CWA over the weekend. Current ensemble guidance is suggestive of a broad 2 to 4 inches across NE Montana with the highest accumulations near the Canadian border.
On Saturday, the first in a series of several cold fronts will move southward into Montana.
430 AM EST Fri Dec 16 2022 (Today through Saturday) High pressure reigns supreme through the short term, bringing mostly sunny skies and moderate temps in the 50s across north and central Georgia.
641 AM CST Fri Dec 16 2022 Regional radar shows widespread light snow over the area on the west and northwest side of the upper low. The upper level trof sags across the area as the arctic airmass settles in late this weekend.
420 AM EST Fri Dec 16 2022 A winter storm will impact Central PA with a mixed bag of freezing rain, sleet and snow for the rest of tonight into Friday. A slow short wave trough overhead will help keep precip going through much of the day in the NErn counties. There could be some light freezing drizzle across the west.
(Today) Tranquil weather across the Tennessee Valley early this morning, with clear, cool, and dry conditions and high pressure at the surface in control. However, most locations remain clear and with temperatures remaining just above the freezing mark, very limited impacts are expected. A broad upper-trough remains in place over the eastern CONUS, with WNW flow aloft helping to maintain this cooler air mass in place today.
Cold advection from a polar air mass centered in the Wisconsin area coincident with vorticity advection will continue to result in stratocumulus today, with light snow showers possible, particularly in the ridges with nwly flow. A surface cold frontal passage will drop temperatures for the overnight period, and result in light snow chance, with little accumulation west of Latrobe. Upsloping flow with a nearly saturated boundary layer that extends through the DGZ should yield some snowfall accumulating from the high terrain of WV, and into Laurel and Chestnut ridges in PA where an inch or two is possible. With rising heights in wake of the low, the subsidence inversion will begin to lower Saturday night such that cloud depths shrink and the chance for any precip diminishes for areas outside of the ridges.
520 AM CST Fri Dec 16 2022 (Today) Tranquil weather across the Tennessee Valley early this morning, with clear, cool, and dry conditions and high pressure at the surface in control. However, most locations remain clear and with temperatures remaining just above the freezing mark, very limited impacts are expected. A broad upper-trough remains in place over the eastern CONUS, with WNW flow aloft helping to maintain this cooler air mass in place today.
524 AM CST Fri Dec 16 2022 (Today and tonight) Temps as of 1 AM have already dropped to freezing or below across the FA with a few sites, Muleshoe and Olton, have been or are in the upper teens. This will keep winds light and, thanks to clearing skies this evening, will allow temps to drop into the teens across much of the Caprock and the low 20s off the Caprock.
416 AM EST Fri Dec 16 2022 The cold front continues to settle across the southern zones this morning, with lingering clouds in place across the area. Cooler and drier air will continue to move into the area today as ridging builds into the north, with highs expected in the mid 60s to mid 70s.
The upper level trof sags across the area as the arctic airmass settles in late this weekend.
212 AM MST Fri Dec 16 2022 Deep upper low continues to support blizzard conds on most of the SD plains this morning. Quiet weather still on track for this weekend, with Sat being the warmest day in the period before a series of cold fronts move through the region.
This will see the temperatures stay below freezing all day long with highs mainly in the 20s. The lows will be more dramatic with most areas in the negative single digits with the coldest spots such as wildhorse can fall into the negative 20s.
422 AM MST Fri Dec 16 2022 Deep upper low continues to support blizzard conds on most of the SD plains this morning. Quiet weather still on track for this weekend, with Sat being the warmest day in the period before a series of cold fronts move through the region.
401 AM EST Fri Dec 16 2022 A winter storm will impact Central PA with a mixed bag of freezing rain, sleet and snow for the rest of tonight into Friday. A slow short wave trough overhead will help keep precip going through much of the day in the NErn counties. With most areas just above freezing, snow will be the main concern over much of the area into this evening. There could be some light freezing drizzle across the west late tonight, once the precipitation becomes lighter and more spotty.
SPC mesoscale analysis reveals areas of moisture convergence oriented north into Miami and along the Keys; this is where the highest theta-e values are noted. The decaying front will try to move south today but to no avail, as the upper-level and low-level support has moved well north of the trough. But another cold front will sweep down from the northern Plains today and reach the Gulf Coast sometime late tonight or Saturday. The second cold front will push the stalled boundary in Central Florida through Southern Florida and possibly through the Keys late tonight or Saturday morning.
Pretty foggy on top the ridges for sure. A slow short wave trough overhead will help keep precip going through much of the day in the NErn counties. There could be some light freezing drizzle across the west.
Several deg C of cold advection in the low to mid levels will bring another bout of clouds and some flurries/light snow showers to the Alleghenies for the latter half of this afternoon and tonight. 19Z temps are within a deg F of forecast highs - ranging from the mid 30s across the northern and western high terrain to the low and mid 40s in the lower Susq Valley.
On Saturday, the mid upper level clouds along I-10 will be west of the region, and under sunny skies and light and variable winds, highs are expected in the lower to mid 50s.
Temperatures will remain below normal today with highs in the lower 40s to around 50 degrees.
Expect breaks in the layered clouds to gradually expand eastward acrs the Central Ridge and Valley region before several deg C of cooling in the low to mid levels advects from the west and brings another bout of clouds and some flurries/light snow showers to the Alleghenies for the latter half of this afternoon and tonight. Temps on track to reach highs ranging from the mid 30s across the northern and western high terrain to the low and mid 40s in the lower Susq Valley.
(Through Tonight) A high pressure ridge will extend east across the area Tonight. A trough of low pressure will slide down the northeast side of this ridge overnight, and provide for an increase in clouds from the north.
As expected, stratus and fog developed across most of the lower valleys this morning. This kept the temperatures considerably warmer than most guidance.
-Zanker MORNING DISCUSSION: Light snow continues across the immediate Montana and North Dakota border as low pressure gradually shifts downstream of the region. Do expect that the winds will begin to relax later this morning and especially this afternoon as the low pressure system inches further away. Next, attention turns to a strong cold front arriving on Saturday, and that system may deliver additional accumulating snowfall to the CWA over the weekend. Current ensemble guidance is suggestive of a broad 2 to 4 inches across NE Montana with the highest accumulations near the Canadian border.
As the upper low slowly moves east tonight, a weak wave will move southeast and bring a few snow showers, mostly to the northern Black Hills.
Continuing through today, expect temperatures to remain on the cooler side with highs in the upper 30s to lower 40s across northern portions of the CWA and highs in the low to mid 40s across central and southern portions of the CWA.
1121 AM CST Fri Dec 16 2022 (Today through Saturday afternoon) A broad, upper level trough is centered over the Upper Midwest and extends across most of the country. A cold front will push into the area today resulting in high temperatures mostly in the 40s and 50s.
205 PM EST Fri Dec 16 2022 Coastal low pressure will track slowly north, up the middle Atlantic and southern New England coast through tonight. Chilly high pressure will build across the region today into Saturday. Central NC will remain under the influence of broad cyclonic flow aloft as the strong mid/upper level low over the Upper MS Valley jogs slowly eastward into the Great Lakes. In it's wake, a weak lee-side trough will linger across western portions of the state.
1019 AM CST Fri Dec 16 2022 (Issued 1019 AM CST Fri Dec 16 2022) The snow will continue across southern WI today as low pressure over Minneapolis slowly tracks into northern WI. There are weak vorticity lobes rotating around the low which are aiding in enhancing our snow at times.
Model soundings are consistent in showing a gradual decrease in the boundary layer winds this afternoon, which is consistent with low-level warm advection and slight upper ridging. Deep upper low continues to support blizzard conds on most of the SD plains this morning. Quiet weather still on track for this weekend, with Sat being the warmest day in the period before a series of cold fronts move through the region.
And given the predominantly below-freezing wetbulb profile aloft, there have even been a few reports of light sleet mixing in with this precipitation. With surface temps well above freezing, there have been and will be no issues.
142 PM EST Fri Dec 16 2022 A cold front remains stalled south of the forecast area this afternoon with northerly surface winds as high pressure starts to build in over the southeast. For the weekend, the setup is a bit complex as the boundary lingers south of us and weak high pressure tries to build in to the north.
1015 AM EST Fri Dec 16 2022 A large scale upper level low will rotate slowly east across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley through Saturday.
1030 AM EST Fri Dec 16 2022 A deep upper level low will pass to the north this weekend, which will bring colder air along with gusty winds and mountain snow showers.