Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
227 PM MDT Thu Sep 10 2020 Upper low currently over far nw Colorado expected to move northeast across the area tonight through Friday and be over western SD by late Friday. Should be some showers mainly over the Neb Panhandle tonight then over se Wy Friday as moisture continues to wrap around the upper low. Some snow over the higher mtns but not much accumulation.
Unfortunately, for those expecting cooler conditions will be disappointed as the frontal boundary is not expected to move much more to the east as a Bermuda Ridge extending from the East Coast of the US westward into the Lower Mississippi Valley will halt its progression. The cloud cover along with the post frontal airmass has resulted in cooler conditions, as most post frontal locations have remained in the 70s today. Ahead of the boundary, much warmer conditions exist, with temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s. By Friday, upper ridging will continue to build into the region resulting in the frontal boundary mixing out.
The cold front has moved well south of South Central Texas. An upper level low will move out of the Four Corners region and into the middle of the country tonight and Friday. This will bring a trough across Texas. Lows Friday will again be below normal but much warmer than today.
317 PM EDT Thu Sep 10 2020 Clouds will arrive tonight as a cold front travels south of the Ohio River. Expect dry weather and increasing sunshine on Friday as high pressure settles across the Great Lakes.
The cold front has progressed slowly to the east this morning and has stalled out near the OK/AR border. However, ahead of the front in western Arkansas and far eastern Oklahoma, temperatures will remain in the 70s and 80s as the cold front will not make it that far east today.
Mid-level water vapor imagery continues to show a cutoff low centered over western Colorado, and this low is helping direct the mid-level flow to be southwesterly over the Central Plains.
238 PM EDT Thu Sep 10 2020 Broad upper level and surface ridging has been pushed northward over the mid-Atlantic states as a trough of low pressure over the northeast Gulf of Mexico moves slowly westward.
High pressure will continue to build into the Pacific Northwest today. Temperatures will be warmer, with highs around 5 degrees above normal.
327 PM CDT Thu Sep 10 2020 High pressure ridge in-between weather systems has brought clear skies and dry conditions to the state today. Expect much of these same conditions to continue for tonight, with overnight lows generally above freezing and in the 30s and 40s. The attention then turns to Friday as a large upper level low moves across the region. Some uncertainty remains for coverage of these potential showers and thunderstorms as the low lacks a rich moisture source. Highs on Friday will be slightly cooler given cloud cover.
725 PM EDT Thu Sep 10 2020 High pressure over the Upper Great Lakes will drift east and take control of our weather through the first half of the weekend.
The line of showers forming west of the forecast area should remain to the north as the lift circulates around the upper level low to the northwest. Friday the upper level low center will be positions near the Black Hills in South Dakota and drier and warmer air will rotate in.
703 PM EDT Thu Sep 10 2020 Rain chances return over the weekend with an approaching low pressure system. The cold front will advance southward through early Friday morning. Behind the cold front, building high pressure and northerly flow will advect cooler, drier air to the region.
530 PM MDT Thu Sep 10 2020 Upper low currently over far nw Colorado expected to move northeast across the area tonight through Friday and be over western SD by late Friday. Should be some showers mainly over the Neb Panhandle tonight then over se Wy Friday as moisture continues to wrap around the upper low. Some snow over the higher mtns but not much accumulation.
349 PM MDT Thu Sep 10 2020 A low pressure system spinning near the Four Corners region will move northeast into Colorado today. A dry northwesterly flow will follow for Friday, with high pressure becoming established across the region this weekend.
Clouds have remained a bit more stubborn across northwest Iowa in proximity to the low-level moisture trajectory. The moisture lingering to the south will be the source for a growing area of stratus and fog which will advect west and north through the night as a large area of upper level low pressure in the central Rockies inches toward SD and starts to increase the southerly component off-surface.
Deep moisture and elevated easterly flow ahead of this trough of low pressure will continue to generate scattered showers and isolated storms over the coastal waters that will move onshore into tonight.
High temperatures today remained in the low to mid 80's due to widespread dense smoke across the region. Looking at the overall synoptic pattern heading into the weekend, deterministic and ensemble model output indicates that the closed upper low currently over the Four Corners will eject into the northern Great Plains as an upper level ridge moves into the central Great Basin.
Overview: A cut-off upper low invof the 4-Corners will lift NNE through CO into eastern WY tonight -- then eastward across the Northern Plains Fri-Fri night. With cyclonic flow aloft over the region Fri-Fri night (along the southern fringe of the upper low progressing slowly east across the Northern Plains). Otherwise, expect mostly clear skies, a light SSW- SW breeze, and warmer temperatures.
/issued 233 PM CDT Thu Sep 10 2020/ The clouds will remain in place for the remainder of today and tonight, but some sunlight is making it through the low cloud deck this afternoon. The low clouds will be firmly in place tomorrow morning for most of us, then begin to lift and clear from west to east, as the trough axis begins to shift from the Rockies into the Central Plains.
327 PM MDT Thu Sep 10 2020 The upper level low is forecast to move from northwest CO to east central WY overnight, and then slowly into western SD through the day Fri. This evening, it still looks like the central mtns will see the highest chances for snow and will keep PoPs fairly high. The rest of the mtns should see at least scattered showers, while the lower elevations may still see some isolated showers. Overnight low temps will mostly be in the 30s over the plains, with mid 20s to lower 30s in the high valleys. Temps will be warmer in most areas on Fri, with highs in the mid 60s to lower 70s over the plains and mostly in the 50s in the high valleys.
VFR flight conditions expected through the period as high pressure remains in control. SR Chattanooga Airport, TN 71 91 73 87 73 / 0 20 10 70 50 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 70 89 70 85 70 / 0 10 10 70 50 Oak Ridge, TN 70 89 70 85 71 / 0 10 10 70 50 Tri Cities Airport, TN 67 86 68 84 67 / 10 20 20 60 50.
Have also added patchy fog for mainly some of the low lying and river valley locations.
We expect the highest convective coverage to be during the afternoon and in the eastern forecast area. Surface analysis depicts a coastal trough just off the southeast U. 2 inches noted, and dew point values well into the lower and mid 70s. Low temperatures should once again be in the lower to mid 70s.
/issued 245 PM CDT Thu Sep 10 2020/ Another warm and predominately dry day in store the Midsouth on Friday, courtesy of a 593 dm 500 mb height ridge centered over the TN River valley.
The cold front continues to creep eastward this evening with most sites now seeing a northerly component to the wind with wind directions currently at KROG and KFYV at 290 and 280 respectively. Regardless, these lower cigs, cooling of the lower atmosphere, and the approach of a subtle short wave trough should allow for some light showers to develop at KBVO, KTUL, and KRVS by tomorrow morning. Tomorrow afternoon will see ceilings slowly rise back to MVFR as the lower atmosphere warms. An upper low over Colorado will lift northeast into the northern plains Friday, with scattered showers and possibly an isolated thunderstorm or two remaining possible in our area, especially Friday morning in northeast Oklahoma.
755 PM EDT Thu Sep 10 2020 Clouds will arrive tonight as a cold front travels south of the Ohio River. Expect dry weather and increasing sunshine on Friday as high pressure settles across the Great Lakes.
1044 PM EDT Thu Sep 10 2020 High pressure over the Upper Great Lakes will drift east and take control of our weather through the first half of the weekend.
High pressure at the surface and upper levels over ND this evening. High pressure ridge in-between weather systems has brought clear skies and dry conditions to the state today. Expect much of these same conditions to continue for tonight, with overnight lows generally above freezing and in the 30s and 40s. The attention then turns to Friday as a large upper level low moves across the region. Some uncertainty remains for coverage of these potential showers and thunderstorms as the low lacks a rich moisture source. Highs on Friday will be slightly cooler given cloud cover.
817 PM MDT Thu Sep 10 2020 Sent an update tonight, merely to bring in the slightest edge of isolated rain showers to our SE Wibaux County corner for tomorrow as the upper low pressure center lifts from Colorado/Wyoming toward the NE over South Dakota. Upper low ejected from the Four Corners area this morning is headed toward Minnesota and only a few mid-level clouds may brush the SE zones with it's passing late tomorrow.
Higher RH in the boundary level certainly supports that with dewpoints in the lower 70s. Overall, look for a bit warmer lows tonight over the E/SE (70-73) with some upper 60s holding on one more night over the N/NW.
946 PM CDT Thu Sep 10 2020 (Issued 946 PM CDT Thu Sep 10 2020) The deeper moisture will hang on overnight, especially across the southern 2/3 of the forecast area as high pressure to the north begins to head eastward. Collar (Issued 230 PM CDT Thu Sep 10 2020) Friday night through Thursday: The cut-off low over the Intermountain West today will begin to shift E/NE and open up as it enters the plains on Friday. High pressure to our north today kicks east and winds begin to shift back to the south as the low approaches. This will setup an increasing WAA event as the low to the west nears the region.
710 PM EDT Thu Sep 10 2020 MVFR cigs should slowly scattered out through the overnight hours as drier low level air associated with building high pressure works into the area. Northeast flow will persist throughout the forecast as the center of high pressure crosses the northern Great Lakes. The low level saturated frontal inversion has persisted evidenced by sluggish low ceilings and drizzle that was surprisingly active here midday in the highlands near the office.
Winds will drop off overnight with the overnight low temperature in the lower 70s for inland areas and in the mid to upper 70s for areas along the coast. An inverted trough near the Bahamas will push westward to the Florida peninsula on Friday and with deep moisture over the area.
644 PM CDT Thu Sep 10 2020 (This evening through Friday) The upper low over the Colorado/Utah border will lift northeast into western South Dakota on Friday. With widespread cloud cover tonight, only expect temperatures to drop a couple of degrees for the lows.
High pressure will rebuild over the area this weekend with a return to warmer and dry weather. As low pressure currently centered across Colorado pushes northeastward over the coming days, high pressure will build over the western U. Still, we will also not experience the record heat the preceded the low pressure system.
952 PM EDT Thu Sep 10 2020 Clouds will arrive tonight as a cold front travels south of the Ohio River. Expect dry weather and increasing sunshine on Friday as high pressure settles across the Great Lakes.
540 PM MDT Thu Sep 10 2020 As of early this afternoon, 500mb height analysis indicates the center of the vertically stacked low pressure system is located near KGJT. To the east and southeast of the low pressure center, morning overcast skies have scattered out. Overall however, surface temperatures will remain at or slightly above freezing today even at pass-level. The broad upper-level low pressure system is progged to lift northward and eventually become re-captured by the mid latitude jet stream. with highs running 10-12 degrees warmer than Thursday. Some freezing temperatures may affect the lower Yampa and White River valleys.
916 PM EDT Thu Sep 10 2020 A weak cold front will push south of the area later tonight. High pressure will slide across southeastern Ontario and into northern New York State by late Friday.
This has resulted in another day of cooler than normal temperatures with a gradual warming trend expected into the weekend. Surface dewpoints are considerably down versus 24 hours with readings mostly ranging from the upper teens to the lower 40s. The exception is Safford where values are in the lower 50s. 32" on the morning Tucson sounding as drier air pushes in from the west associated with upper low lift through Colorado. Warmer temperatures into the weekend as high pressure builds over the area.
715 PM EDT Thu Sep 10 2020 Cloudy and cool with highs in the low to mid 60s.
517 PM MDT Thu Sep 10 2020 Overview: A cut-off upper low invof the 4-Corners will lift NNE through CO into eastern WY tonight -- then eastward across the Northern Plains Fri-Fri night. With cyclonic flow aloft over the region Fri-Fri night (along the southern fringe of the upper low progressing slowly east across the Northern Plains). Otherwise, expect mostly clear skies, a light SSW- SW breeze, and warmer temperatures.
The mid/upper trough over the Rockies will begin to lift north and east toward the Northern Plains on Friday allowing light southerly flow to return to the Central Plains region. There remains some uncertainty towards the end of the period as the ECMWF drives another sharp cold front southward towards the region while the GFS maintains mid/upper ridging across the Southeastern U. Main upper low currently over the Rockies will finally sweep E-NE of the area on Fri, with a general scouring out of the low level moisture by around 18z/Fri.
Issued by National Weather Service Goodland KS 324 AM CDT Fri Sep 11 2020 07 UTC Water Vapor Imagery and RAP analysis indicated large closed low circulation centered across north central Colorado.
Mid-level water vapor imagery continues to show a cutoff low centered over western Colorado, and this low is helping direct the mid-level flow to be southwesterly over the Central Plains. As the mid-level trough moves overhead, global models suggest that less widespread activity may accompany the southern flank of the low beginning in central Nebraska and progressing eastward with the low through the day Saturday. These chances are expected to be much lower than Friday's chances, as the moisture on the southern flank of the low will be limited due to the northwesterly transport winds.
As the low pivots across Minnesota on Saturday, the more concentrated activity will shift to areas along and north of Interstate 94, but scattered showers will remain possible area-wide. By Saturday evening, conditions will be improving as the upper level low continues to move to the east.
153 AM MDT Fri Sep 11 2020 Upper low will meander over western Nebraska today before finally pulling away from the area on Saturday.
At the mid- levels, stout ridging centered over the southern Appalachians continues to exert its influence over the region. The deep trof over the Intermountain West will translate to the east across the central Plains/Great Lakes. PoPs increase to high chance values Saturday afternoon, focused ahead of the cold front in our west/northwest counties with a secondary bullseye in the southern KY Pennyrile with the surge of tropical moisture.
Overview: A cut-off upper low invof the 4-Corners will lift NNE through CO into eastern WY tonight -- then eastward across the Northern Plains Fri-Fri night. With cyclonic flow aloft over the region Fri-Fri night (along the southern fringe of the upper low progressing slowly east across the Northern Plains). Otherwise, expect mostly clear skies, a light SSW- SW breeze, and warmer temperatures. Starting Saturday, sunny and drier weather looks to be in store with the progression of a upper level ridge moving to the east. Northwest flow is expected to develop over the Tri-State area as the ridging develops over the NW CONUS. RH values are forecasted to drop into the lower to mid 20's across east Colorado and portions of western Kansas with winds gusting to around the 20mph mark causing the potential for fire weather across the area.
By Saturday, the upper low is progged to open up over Minnesota and move into the Great Lakes region throughout the day. This will bring height falls and the tail end of a surface cold front down into Missouri, leading to additional scattered showers and possibly a few thunderstorms ahead of and along the front during the morning and afternoon. The highest chances for rain will likely be across central Missouri, with chances lowering with southward extent.
1111 PM EDT Thu Sep 10 2020 Rain chances return over the weekend with an approaching low pressure system. Tomorrow, quiet weather will prevail as high pressure to our north continues to drive cool air across western PA. High pressure will shift northeast by Saturday morning, allowing for return / southerly flow in between the high and an approaching low pressure system advancing from the Midwest.
Any drier time will be brief though, because the stationary front, currently sitting over southern MO, will lift north this afternoon at the same time the closed upper level low is approaching the region. A record was set again yesterday (9/10), with the high temperature at MCI only reaching 57 degrees. However, there will be one last chance for a quick shower or storm Saturday afternoon, mainly along and west of I-35, as a weak cold front moves through the area. High pressure will move in at the surface with the upper level ridge over the western U.
Have also added patchy fog for mainly some of the low lying and river valley locations. Additionally, slight height falls are forecast as the ridge slides to the east over the western Atlantic as a trough moves across the northern Plains on Friday into the western Great Lakes by Saturday. However, with the high PW airmass, expect heavy downpours with the showers and storms and could see some localized flooding areas, especially for locations with poor drainage. The first and most significant wave will be a fast-moving trough that shifts from the Great Lakes into New England.
An upper-level low pressure system will move into the region from the southwest. Afternoon high temperatures may get into the low 70s for a few locations across the far the southern parts of the area, otherwise 60s are expected elsewhere.
The upper low that has remained cut off over Utah and Colorado is finally starting to eject across the northern Rockies this morning. As the low progresses towards the east- northeast through the day, drier air will continue to filter into the area and scour out any remaining low clouds and moisture that has been lingering across the region. An upper level ridge is expected to build across the western and central United States, with tropical moisture shunted south of the region and the jet stream being well north of the region.
353 AM CDT Fri Sep 11 2020 A clear sky is promoting patchy fog development this morning as temperatures fall into the low 70s and upper 60s. A big picture of the CONUS paints a closed low over the Rockies/Upper Plains and in contrast, high pressure from the TN Valley into the Carolinas. As the Upper Plains closed low becomes entrained with upper level flow, high pressure will begin to break down here at home. Models indicate that the higher QPF will be focused along and east of I-65 Saturday afternoon and evening.
- Frost possible north tonight Northern zones will see the skies scattering out as a colder airmass slips in from the north thanks to an area of high pressure building in. The 925 mb thermal ridge arrives then.
Latest GOES-16 satellite water vapor imagery is showing drier air pushing in from the southwest, as an upper level jet wraps into the upper level low over Colorado. As the upper low progresses eastward, drier air should over take the entire region resulting in no further chances for precipitation. Upper level closed low over the Four Corners is starting its slow trip to the northeast. The main vort max associated with the low has moved across the Panhandles, bringing light showers most of the western and northern Panhandles. Another subtle wave was noted on WV satellite imagery rounding the base of the low, and this feature may help produce a few more showers later today into tonight across mainly the northern half of the Panhandles.
Tonight Through Saturday With H500 ridging to the southeast and an ejecting low moving from the Four Corners region across the Central Plains, Arkansas will remain on the edge of SW flow aloft. At the surface, the cold front that brought an early taste of Fall to areas west of the state will continue to provide little to no relief for us locally.
For today, models depict a mid level trough departing SoFlo and moving into the eastern Gulf waters. Once again, the main lifting mechanism for deep convection will be the sea breezes as they migrate inland during the afternoon hours, with an early afternoon bout over the Atlantic coast, then moving inland and likely generating the highest rain and thunderstorm activity near the Gulf coast and interior areas.
213 AM CDT Fri Sep 11 2020 The remainder of the overnight hours will be crisp, cool, cloudy, and calm, as the surface anticyclone continues to broaden beneath the departing upper-level low that is now centered over the eastern Rocky Mountains. Geopotential heights will gradually rise throughout the day as the closed low pivots off to the northeast, and as the low-level stratus deck mixes out, some degree of vertical mixing will occur this afternoon with temperatures slated to rise into the middle 70s across the CWA. Sincavage A fine stretch of fall weather is in store for the South Plains region in the extended as broad upper ridging dominates the southern tier of the CONUS.
148 AM EDT Fri Sep 11 2020 Clouds will arrive tonight as a cold front travels south of the Ohio River. Expect dry weather and increasing sunshine on Friday as high pressure settles across the Great Lakes.
BW Chattanooga Airport, TN 91 73 87 73 83 / 20 10 70 50 80 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 89 70 85 70 84 / 10 10 70 50 80 Oak Ridge, TN 89 70 85 71 83 / 10 10 70 50 80 Tri Cities Airport, TN 86 68 84 67 83 / 20 20 60 50 80.
Otherwise, upper level ridging influences will provide for VFR conditions with bkn CI patches at times thru 12/06Z.
Overall, look for a bit warmer lows tonight over the E/SE (70-73) with some upper 60s holding on one more night over the N/NW. /CME/ Deep troughing continues over the western half of the CONUS which results in a continued sub-tropical ridge over the ArkLaMiss region through at least Saturday.
A few high clouds and a very moist and warm airmass dominating the Sunshine state this morning, as weak trough continues to move west over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. East to northeasterly winds prevail across most of the peninsula and this will continue through most of today as high pressure remains to our north. The main weather story though will be the gradual increase in moisture expected this afternoon and through the weekend, as another low pressure disturbance approaches Florida.