Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
516 AM MDT Wed May 10 2017 The center of the closed upper-level low pressure system has progressed slowly eastward this morning. Cooler air aloft will also be slightly more noticeable today as the upper-level trough axis passes over the central Rockies. Snow levels in the 9000-10000 foot range will be common, meaning snow for some of the higher passes and perhaps some very small hail in the stronger convective showers in the lower elevations. Have kept a mention of some very low chance showers in the forecast through the night in the higher elevations of the San Juans and Sawatch ranges. By daybreak Thursday the closed low will have exited our forecast area with its center projected to be over the Texas/Oklahoma panhandle. Elsewhere, expect clearing skies and warming temperatures as high pressure begins to build in from the west.
713 AM EDT Wed May 10 2017 High pressure northeast of the local area will retreat across eastern Canada.
With dry conditions and warming temperatures through the short term period, the primary concern in the near term is timing the dissipation of fog across the eastern sections of the forecast area this morning as high pressure moves into the region.
In the middle and upper level(700-200 mb), latest satellite imagery overlaid with model streamline analysis as of 100 pm depicts broad low amplitude troughing remaining in place this afternoon across the Eastern CONUS, with a identifiable trough axis evident from Lake Superior down to the Lower Mississippi Valley, and broad low amplitude ridging upstream over the Western CONUS. South of that, GOES-16 water vapor imagery does indicate deep drier air in the middle and upper levels over the Gulf and most of the Florida Peninsula, but there is a positively tilted upper trough axis from near Tampa down to the SW gulf of Mexico, but abundant moisture is now moving northwards across the Florida Keys and extreme South Florida. Temperatures across the islands have reached the lower to middle 80s with dewpoints in the lower to mid 70s.
A cooler air mass is over the plains today while an above seasonable airmass is over the mtns and valleys.
336 PM CST Sun Nov 12 2017 As of 20Z Sunday afternoon a mid-level trough across the Great Lakes region continues to progress eastward. Westward, a mid-level ridge continues to build across the central Plains. The potential for any freezing fog is minimal as road and surface temperatures remain in the low 40s.
A ridge of high pressure at the surface will slowly slide east over the area, with winds turning to the east or southeast.
An approaching Pacific trough will spread some precipitation across the West Central Mountains of Idaho by the evening hours. Southwest flow aloft in advance of the next trough will continue through the short term period. The incoming trough is a strong one, and surface winds will increase in southeast Oregon Monday, especially in the higher elevations.
This is due to drier air filtering into the area from the NE tonight as a weak frontal bdry and associated high pressure pushes SW. Kept a 30 pop across the far western CWA and 20 pop across the southern CWA on Monday due to the high lifting back to the NE and slightly deeper moisture pushing back across the south and west CWA.
1130 AM CST Sun Nov 12 2017 Satellite imagery this morning shows a progressive pattern in place across the Nation with small amplitude troughs noted moving east through it. This trend looks to continue this coming work week as no large scale blocking is noted or forecast to develop any time soon. This will keep temperatures wandering across a seasonally normal range over the coming week with a couple of chances for precipitation based on the timing of specific troughs move across the Plains States. As the trough moves farther east today it will allow a bit drier air to move in, but with the cloud cover and north winds lingering well into the day expect temperatures to remain a bit cool.
The H85 ridge to the east drifts west tonight and Monday. In addition a weak inverted trough will move into this region overnight linking up with a cold front possibly sagging south into Val Verde County. Drier and slightly warmer conditions are expected Monday along and east of I-35.
Cold front passes through with current 1000-700 mb moisture diminishing to 1000-850mb tonight.
Latest water vapor imagery shows an upper level ridge upstream across the Northern High Plains-Central Rockies that will be building and moving east today into the eastern Plains-Upper Mississippi Valley.
An area of high pressure will build east across the Ohio Valley on Monday night. The setup would be a decent for ridge/valley temperatures splits, but the lingering clouds will be a mitigating factor.
High pressure will influence the region, gradually shifting to the east. Timing of return flow will probably be what eventually advects the low stratus clouds eastward.
207 PM CST Sun Nov 12 2017 Current GOES-16 water vapor imagery along with 12Z upper air analysis shows mid level short wave from the Great Lakes into the midwest progressing eastward while low amplitude ridge builds into the Rockies. Corresponding 500 mb height falls of 30-40 meters noted with the trough, with height rises of 60 meters associated with the ridge. Winds are light and variable over the CWA as we sit under high pressure.
The cold front continues to move south, and can be seen moving south in VIS satellite data. Winds will be light, however, winds will likely shift to northerly as a cold front passes through the area. /issued 345 AM CST Sun Nov 12 2017/ (Today and Tonight) Changes to the weather are in store beginning later this morning as another weak cold front is expected to pass through the area. A weak cold front is then expected to move into the Big Country and the Interstate 20 corridor a few hours after sunrise. Otherwise, high temperatures for this afternoon will be in the upper 50s in the Big Country to the lower 70s across the Northwest Hill Country. Then, low temperatures for tonight will drop into the low to mid 50s.
132 PM MST Sun Nov 12 2017 Dry weather with periods of high clouds will persist this week as high pressure remains over the region or situated just to the south. Above normal temperatures with lower desert highs in the lower and middle 80s are in the forecast for the foreseeable future. Strengthening high pressure aloft today into Monday may lead to warmer deserts, including the greater Phoenix area, climbing into the upper 80s each day with temperatures peaking on Monday. A storm system passing to the north later in the week could bring slightly cooler temperatures and breezy winds to the Southwest. A seasonably strong anticyclone remains in place across northern Mexico, with high clouds continuing to stream northeastward within stronger west-southwesterly flow along the northern periphery of this feature.
Early this morning, a surface analysis revealed weak low pressure near Kansas City. Ridging will build back in, with highs around 50.
1247 PM EST Sun Nov 12 2017 Weak low pressure will move east across the region today and today night. High pressure will build back across the region Monday and remain in control into midweek. Otherwise weak low pressure will move through the OH vly from late this afternoon through tonight. Deep moisture will spread into the area from the southwest with the low. Will bridge the two with chance pops this afternoon west. High pressure builds in on Monday as moisture pulls east.
High pressure at the surface and aloft will be over the region today. The flow aloft will be westerly and a little weaker with the ridge overhead.
252 PM CST Sun Nov 12 2017 (Tonight and Monday) As of 2 PM, the cold front could be seen in radar imagery moving south through the Concho Valley. Overnight as the front continues south, isentropic lift increases in the low levels with warm, moist air riding up over the top of the cooler surface air mass. As temperatures warm during the day Monday, expect the fog and drizzle to clear out of most of the area by late morning, except for areas well north of I-20 where it may remain cooler into the afternoon hours.
413 PM EST Sun Nov 12 2017 Rain chances have returned for tonight with crossing low pressure. All temperatures are well above freezing so not problems or headline are expected/warranted. crossing low pressure will spread light precipitation across the region through Monday morning. Some sheltered valleys in our northeastern zones could fall below freezing early in the predawn for a brief period of time. raising potential for a brief period of freezing rain; however, with models continuing to show a slower and warmer trend and no cold reinforce, no impact is anticipated. High pressure will be building back in by Monday afternoon.
This lift in conjunction with decent isentropic upglide will lead to areas of rain, beginning in the west shortly after sunset, expanding into the highway 1 corridor toward midnight. Now appears that he back edge of the rain will exit the western Piedmont after 06Z, with the back edge close to the highway 1 corridor toward daybreak.
Low clouds and perhaps some light fog and drizzle will linger across most of the Ozarks region tonight in the wake of a cold front that moved across the region Sunday.
The highest amount reported was from Mount Carroll Illinois, where a spotter measured a little more than half an inch. High pressure with a light or calm wind will settle across the forecast area and with the recent rain/wet snow, fog development is a good bet.
This will sustain a sub- freezing wet bulb temperature for a time as evaporative cooling commences, before the boundary layer begins to moderate diurnally. Shallow low level cold air advection commences in the wake of this system overnight into early Monday, as high pressure slowly builds toward the region. Modest late day recovery will bring highs Monday back into the lower 40s.
However, some light rain or drizzle will linger until the passage of the low through our area toward midday. With the extensive cloud cover and low sun angle, have leaned temperatures a bit below the cooler MET guidance.
1021 AM CST Sun Nov 12 2017 Cold front currently pushing through the area with little fanfare with just slightly cooler temperatures noted behind the boundary.
A cold frontal passage will occur on Monday, sweeping across eastern Washington and northeast Oregon between 10 AM-1 PM then over the remainder of the forecast area between 1 PM-7 PM.
Expect a period of improved ceilings up to the lower range of MVFR this afternoon into early this evening before lowering back into IFR and perhaps LIFR later this evening into Monday morning. /issued 533 AM CST Sun Nov 12 2017/ As of 11Z cold front has moved through all sites with winds out of the north-northeast. A cold front is working its way through the forecast area this morning with very low stratus and some fog trailing it by a narrow distance.
High pressure over the Northern Plains early this morning will move east and south through the day. Temperatures below freezing and the fog may create slick spots on untreated roads. Expect highs today from the mid to upper twenties over far northern Minnesota to the lower to middle thirties from the Brainerd Lakes Region into northwest Wisconsin. The ridge will pass east of the area tonight with a zonal flow aloft. A southerly low level flow will develop on Monday bringing in warmer air.
209 PM EST Sun Nov 12 2017 Low pressure will bring rain into the area tonight into Monday.
Continental high pressure filtering into the northwest Gulf will back winds to east and northeast tonight, supporting coastal convergence. Adverse aviation conditions will continue through mid morning as the low clouds and fog persists. Ceilings and visibilities will gradually improve around mid morning as the low clouds and fog lift and burn off with diurnal heating. Some brief dense fog may develop across the low to mid valley around sunrise. Low temperatures tonight will be in the 60s inland to the lower 70s along the coast.
108 PM EST Sun Nov 12 2017 A weak low pressure system will track across the region today, bringing rain to the area.
227 PM CST Sun Nov 12 2017 A ridge axis aloft is centered overhead and while this is squashed by a weak wave over North Dakota the main effect of this feature will be for some higher clouds to move across the forecast area tonight and early Monday. At this point, mixing to 900mb yields highs around 50s in the James and 40s to the east so will stick with something more akin to the previous forecast highs compared to the blended guidance which is lower thanks to the NAM/Canadian cooler temps due to less mixing/stratus.
For later today, high pressure moves east with light southerly winds developing.
Monday brings above normal temperatures several degrees warmer than Sunday's highs, with breezy south winds of 20 to 30 mph. Temperatures above freezing keep freezing drizzle out of the forecast.
118 PM MST Sun Nov 12 2017 Water vapor shows upper ridge over the Rockies. Upper ridge will peak over the Northern Plains on Monday, with many areas reaching into the lower 60s.
Models prog a long wave trough to deepen later today over the Ohio Valley. Maximum temperatures should top off in the low 80s, a couple degrees warmer than seasonal norms. Monday through mid week: On Monday, the aforementioned trough will continue to sag southward, helping to pump relatively deeper moisture in from over the Atlantic.
1222 PM EST Sun Nov 12 2017 A good deal of clouds will be over the area today but no precipitation is expected as high pressure persists over the area today and tonight. A low pressure system will pass to our south on Monday. No precipitation is expected with high pressure over the area and high temperatures will generally be in the 30s.
By Monday night moisture convergence is weakened and high pressure becomes more pronounced in the mid levels to make measurable rainfall or drizzle less likely over all areas.
Weak high pressure ridging and rising heights will prevail today through Monday. Monday will see partly to mostly sunny skies along with warmer temperatures as lee-side troughing sets up resulting in a downslope surface flow.
Monday should still be quite mild (highs in the upper 40s to low 50s) ahead of an approaching cold front.
240 PM CST Sun Nov 12 2017 The upper air pattern this week will feature a strong ridge over the southwest states.
However, cancelled the freezing fog advisory for Hill and Blaine Counties since widespread freezing fog is no longer present. Also reduced the coverage of freezing fog to reflect latest observations. The West Yellowstone and Raynolds Pass areas have the best probability of experiencing lingering, patchy freezing fog through about 9 AM this morning. Jaszka Areas of fog and freezing fog will affect the Hi-Line and some of the valleys of Southwest Montana this morning. However, building high pressure aloft will bring mostly dry and breezy conditions to much of the forecast area today with temperatures remaining near seasonal averages. Lastly, low clouds and freezing fog should redevelop over the northeastern portion of North-Central MT, including KHVR, after 03Z/Mon and persist through about 16Z/Mon.
SHORT TERM (Tonight through Monday Night): Mid level ridging remains in place over northwest Mexico, extending east over deep south Texas and the west Gulf. A surface cold front has pushed into central Texas, but it should dissipate as the main supporting high pressure over the plains slides off to the east. Some of the continental high pressure will push out over the north Gulf tonight, however, backing local wind to east or northeast through the short term. Warmer than normal temperatures will continue, though not too extreme, with overnight lows still in the mid to upper 60s, about ten degrees above normal, while Monday's highs in the lower 80s will be about 5 degrees above normal.
Rain showers will linger into this evening (mainly east) until an upper low exits the region.
Arctic high pressure remains from New England through the Mid Atlantic states tonight while the stalled front over the FL Peninsula expected to wash out and surface features pull into the Atlantic Monday but tight gradient is keeping breezy NE-E low level flow in place with overrunning above 10k ft. Mid/upper-level ridging will hold over Mexico through the end of the week with broad troughing across the east coast.
We are seeing a steady erosion of the lower clouds which linger behind the higher precipitation-producing cloud shield. Light winds with the high moving in and some recent precip may result in a little fog. High pressure across the upper midwest will become centered across northeast Illinois by Monday mid to morning before shifting to the eastern Great Lakes region. This should result in sunshine, light winds, and warmer though still seasonally cool temperatures. Highs will reach the lower to mid 40s. As the high shifts east Monday afternoon, some increase in higher clouds is expected.
with ridging over the large majority of the western US and weak cyclonic flow downstream across the eastern US. The cyclonic flow is largely shaped by a positively tilted open wave trough located around the northern Illinois vicinity. The sfc response to this open wave is a weak wave of low pressure with an associated cold front draped to its S/SW. The exception will lie across far southern counties where breaks in the clouds are helping lift temps into the lower 60s. Monday: A cold front will traverse the CWA from NW to SE rather quickly late tonight into Monday.
At the surface, a weak cold front is located very near, or just south of, the Interstate 30 corridor. The trough axis has provided just enough vertical ascent to maintain a band of showers between Interstates 20 and 30 in Southern Arkansas, Northeast Texas, and Northern Louisiana. The upper trough axis is passing overhead, so upper level support should rapidly decrease by early this evening. The low-level airmass may remain somewhat moist tonight, and may be combined with a rather deep layer of low level cloud cover.
/Issued 1015 AM EST Sun Nov 12 2017/ Strong Canadian high pressure centered off the southern tip of Nova Scotia is the source of the continued cold air damming along the lee side of the Appalachians. a southerly component to the flow above the sfc is advecting warmer. while a cold front and mid level open wave trough approaches later tonight. with most locations cooler than yesterday given abundant clouds. /Issued 308 AM EST Sun Nov 12 2017/ The wedge will hold strong today as the parent Canadian high pressure migrates across New England. Clouds will finally break Monday morning as a weak cold front traverses the area.
1154 AM EST Sun Nov 12 2017 An approaching cold front will cross the area late tonight into Monday morning.
Water vapor satellite shows a low pressure system situated in the eastern Gulf of Alaska. This low will push a weak cold front into the forecast area today, which will bring some precipitation, mainly to the coast, with much lower probability of precipitation in west side valleys. Late tonight into Monday morning, the low will push a stronger, wetter, and windier cold front into the area.
338 PM CST Sun Nov 12 2017 Overall, the main change in weather behind the recent cold front was a wind shift.
244 PM EST Sun Nov 12 2017 High pressure will remain over the area tonight.
For Monday, models show the a deepening trough across the Ohio valley, which will sag southward and help keep enough moisture and overall instability across Florida for justifying keeping mention of slight chances of thunderstorms in the afternoon hours.
/Issued 1021 AM CST Sun Nov 12 2017/ Cold front currently pushing through the area with little fanfare with just slightly cooler temperatures noted behind the boundary.
With the departure of this feature and surface winds gradually becoming northeast as an inverted trough over the western Gulf drops towards the lower Texas coast, expect rain chances to gradually taper off through the afternoon and evening hours. An inverted trough/wave is situated from the central Louisiana coast southward into the Gulf. However, expect winds to back around to the northeast today as the trof/wave in the Gulf makes further westward progress. Rain chances will be slim, and the current 20% chances in the grids could be overly generous, but will go ahead and let them ride for now as some of the higher res models show the potential for a few showers dotting the area this morning.
Expect highest rain chances to remain relegated to areas around and south of Matagorda Bay through the rest of the day before an approaching inverted trough in the Gulf approximately 150 miles to the east (per surface analysis) reaches the Lower Texas coast later tonight. A few light showers may still be possible across the extreme northern counties, but weakening isentropic lift on the 300-305 K surfaces as the Gulf trough passes and a weak cold front approaches should limit those chances through this evening.
153 PM MST Sun Nov 12 2017 Dry high pressure will be over the western and central Wyoming tonight and Monday.
A brief period of very light freezing rain or freezing drizzle is also possible before precipitation ends by daybreak.
134 PM EST Sun Nov 12 2017 Rain chances return overnight as low pressure crosses the region. Crossing low pressure will spread light precipitation across the region late this evening through Monday morning. Some sheltered valleys in our northeastern zones could fall below freezing early in the morning for a relatively brief period of time. raising potential for a brief period of freezing rain. However, with models continuing to show a slower and warmer trend. High pressure will be building back in by Monday afternoon.
At the surface, an inverted trough extends from MO into IA. For the rest of today, high pressure will build across the region. In general, most areas will drop into the lower to mid 20s. Skies will be partly sunny with highs rising into the lower to mid 40s.
234 PM CST Sun Nov 12 2017 The weak cold frontal passage that occurred last night has kept us cloudy with below average temperatures that will struggle to get even into the 50s this afternoon. The cloud coverage will eventually shift south allowing temperatures to drop down to near freezing and below freezing over northern Missouri.
High pressure over New England is still in charge of the weather with a dry cold airmass. Snow amounts will be 1 to 2 inches across the higher terrain of central NY from Madison and northern Chenango counties west to most of Steuben. The low and trough will be east of the area during the afternoon. A large area of high pressure will move in late. Early afternoon high temperatures in the low and mid 40s.
233 PM MST Sun Nov 12 2017 Patchy freezing fog is possible along eastern portions of the Hi- Line this evening into Monday morning as high pressure exits to the east.
In the near term, a cold front will cross the area today, but most of the cold air will stay well away from us. This front will also not clear out the low level moisture as is usually the case with fronts this time of year. High temperatures will be cooler the next couple of days, but that will mostly be due to low clouds sticking around. Upper ridging builds in midweek as low level moisture begins to mix out.
302 PM CST Sun Nov 12 2017 A weak cold front/surface wind shift was well on its way across the PAH forecast area this afternoon as a mid level trof axis approached from the northwest. Some breaks in the clouds may occur for a few hours this afternoon, mainly over parts of southeastern MO/western KY, but should fill back in as the aforementioned trof creates a bit of lift.
In the upper levels a weak trough will be over the Southeast today. Low level flow will remain easterly as high pressure moves into the Atlantic (from the Northeast U. Highs will be in the low to mid 70s in the Florida counties.
330 PM EST Sun Nov 12 2017 High pressure will shift east tonight as weak low pressure moves east out of the Ohio Valley. Weak low pressure will pass south of New England on Monday.