Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
828 PM EDT Thu Apr 15 2021 Weak cold front will push slowly southward through north Florida into tonight, with low level cloud cover gradually building across the area overnight. VFR conditions expected through the remainder of the evening, with stratus gradually building in across the region, south of an approaching cold front. This lower cloud cover is forecast to linger into the morning with gradual improvement to VFR into the afternoon. S/SW winds from the Cape southward will decrease to 10-15 knots late this evening, with winds then generally out of the W/NW after midnight as cold front moves gradually southward through north Florida.
Additionally, locally heavy rain will be possible at times, with much of the area picking up between an inch to an inch and a half with the higher amounts across deep east Texas and central Louisiana.
1026 PM EDT Thu Apr 15 2021 Low pressure near Lake Ontario this evening, will drift southeast slowly and cross PA through Friday. Snow showers will fall across the higher terrain of the north and west into Friday and a light accumulation of an inch or so is expected across the ridgetops by Friday morning.
1027 PM EDT Thu Apr 15 2021 Low pressure near Lake Ontario this evening, will drift southeast slowly and cross PA through Friday. Snow showers will fall across the higher terrain of the north and west into Friday and a light accumulation of an inch or so is expected across the ridgetops by Friday morning.
520 PM EDT Thu Apr 15 2021 Scattered rain and snow showers will continue overnight and into Friday morning with crossing low pressure. Scattered rain and snow showers will continue overnight as an upper low continues east and away from the region. helping to drive a secondary cold front. The lack of deep moisture, marginal DGZ growth, and warmer ground temps will limit accumulation. Though the growing season is underway for many of our southern forecast points and just above freezing overnight temperature, frost remains unlikely given excessive cloud cover and low level winds just high enough to create enough turbulence for frost formation. Pressure heights will slowly rise as the upper low pulls farther east toward the New England coast Friday.
The upper low is now across Utah into western Wyoming and will continue to move eastward into the central Great Plains later tonight and Friday. Though surface temperatures have been below freezing, snowfall has struggled to stick on the ground, due to warm ground temperatures and increasingly strong mid-April solar radiation.
858 PM EDT Thu Apr 15 2021 Dry high pressure will build into and over the area from the northwest this evening through Friday. A dry secondary backdoor surface cold front will drop through the region Friday night.
A combination of a vort max rotating around a low pressure system across the central Rockies and an upper-level wave dropping south out of Canada is expected to supply just enough forcing for widespread light snow showers to develop across western and central ND tonight. Cloud cover will finally begin to clear from northwest to southeast late tomorrow afternoon as a quick-moving upper-level ridge builds into the area, leaving behind mostly clear skies and low temperatures in the upper teens to mid 20s for tomorrow night.
Areas of fog are likely tonight into early Friday morning as a warm front moves through. Drier air will move in midday and afternoon Friday ahead of a cold front that will move into the region in the afternoon.
Lows tonight will range from the low 30s to mid 40s. Otherwise, fridays highs will climb into the low to upper 60s, only slightly warmer than today.
619 PM CDT Thu Apr 15 2021 Upper low continues to push east, now passing through lower Ontario, with plenty of residual cloud cover on the back side back over our area. Lingering morning sprinkles/drizzle have diminished as the low pulls east, so we're looking at a period of quiet weather as weak surface ridging continues to nudge in for tonight into Friday. This results in lows in the lower 30s in much of central and north-central Wisconsin under the most clearing, and middle 30s elsewhere.
647 PM CDT Thu Apr 15 2021 (This evening through Friday) Increasing ascent from upper jet exit region and central Rockies trough has enhanced isentropic ascent atop the residual frontal slope causing an area of rain across our southwest counties. As the influence from the trough peaks later tonight and mid-level lapse rates steepen, modest MUCAPE will develop and could support more intense convective updrafts capable of hail.
826 PM EDT Thu Apr 15 2021 Dry high pressure will build into and over the area from the northwest this evening through Friday. A dry secondary backdoor surface cold front will drop through the region Friday night.
The main modification to the forecast was to increase precipitation chances further west into the Treasure Valley for the overnight period as the high resolution models indicate a bit of moisture moving further northwest than initially expected.
612 PM CDT Thu Apr 15 2021 Upper level low is located across the central Rockies region this afternoon. Deep lift within area of upper level divergence across western CO just ahead of the low with lightning observed across that area. As the upper low moves into CO this evening, mid-level FGEN increases from the Panhandle into southwest Nebraska. The upper low tracks across southern NE during the day Friday. Accumulation during the day Friday will become more difficult due to the high mid April sun angle and surface temperatures a few degrees above the freezing mark.
A weak front pushed on through early this morning, and dry cooler air is settling in behind. with dewpoints around freezing. Weak upper ridging will quickly move east early Fri night, and another weak upper trough axis will push into the MS river early Sat, with a weak front just ahead. And preceding this wave, a weak cold front will push through Tue night.
1028 PM EDT Thu Apr 15 2021 Currently - An Atlantic ridge extending a ridge westward across the Bahamas and through Cuba, resulting in primarily light southeasterly breezes. Lower level ridging is aligned across Cuba with zonal flow above. This evenings sounding indicates the low subsidence inversion remains around 950 but has weakened some. Short Term Update - Ridging will continue to dominate through the overnight period. Light winds near the island chain will gradually increase a bit out of the south as the ridge axis broadens. A ridge across Cuba will broaden some overnight.
Winds should remain light with afternoon temperatures warming into the lower 60.
An upper low over the northern Rockies will continue moving east and weaken. The ridge portion of the block remains along the west coast.
Conditions will remain dry for the remainder of the day under increasing mid and high level clouds associated with an approaching upper- level trough moving over the front range of the Rocky Mountains. Synoptic lift associated with the aforementioned trough will spread into the region by mid to late this evening. Lows tonight will remain more mild in the low to mid 40s area-wide due to the rain and cloud cover. There may be a brief break between the first round of showers early Friday morning and a second, more widespread round of showers that will arrive with the main forcing from the upper- level trough by mid Friday morning.
730 PM EDT Thu Apr 15 2021 High pressure over the northern Plains will extend into the region through Friday night.
Rain showers will continue to spread across the CWA this evening and overnight tonight ahead of an upper level low expected to move through the region Friday. More widespread rain showers will develop through the day Friday as main upper low shifts east into the Central Plains.
This will result in a shift to onshore flow and much cooler conditions (in the 40s) the rest of this afternoon for areas near the lake. For tonight it appears that we will again have at least some cloud cover around, and this will likely keep temperatures from falling below freezing in most areas. Inland temperatures on Friday look to be about another 3 to 5 degrees warmer than those of today, which should put mainly areas near the 60 degree mark. Much cooler conditions are expected near the lake.
Presently twin upper level lows remain in place over the east central Rockies and eastern Great Lakes area. The low holds together a little better and brings precipitation further north and east than previous guidance suggested.
717 PM EDT Thu Apr 15 2021 Drier and cooler high pressure will work its way into the region, along with breezy conditions through Friday.
High pressure will briefly build in for overnight and Friday. /Issued 347 PM EDT Thu Apr 15 2021/ A pair of cold fronts will drop through today marking and end to the record breaking high temperatures we've had over the past few days. A line of showers and thunderstorms have sank south of the CWA border over the course of the morning and afternoon and dry air reinforced by NW flow aloft is bringing cooler temperatures and drier air steadily south across the region.
Areas west of I-65 will see more cloud cover with lows a bit warmer than further east and in the upper 30s to low 40s, so no frost is expected there.
Predominately zonal flow aloft will remain across the Lower Mississippi Valley with a stationary baroclinic zone draped across the Gulf Coast. Cloud cover will keep temperatures in check with overnight lows in the low to mid 50s and afternoon highs tomorrow in the low to mid 60s.
This afternoon, the double closed low pattern continued at the upper levels with one low progressing east near the Great Lakes and the other spinning over the Intermountain West. In between, brief ridging was present over the Plains with clouds increasing ahead of the western trough. With partly to mostly cloudy skies, temperatures have been a bit cooler than yesterday having warmed into the mid to upper 50s this afternoon.
Scattered rain and snow showers will continue overnight as an upper low continues east and away from the region. The lack of deep moisture, marginal DGZ growth, and warmer ground temps will limit accumulation. Though the growing season is underway for many of our southern forecast points and just above freezing overnight temperature, frost remains unlikely given excessive cloud cover and low level winds just high enough to create enough turbulence for frost formation. Pressure heights will slowly rise as the upper low pulls farther east toward the New England coast Friday.
716 PM EDT Thu Apr 15 2021 Scattered rain and snow showers will continue overnight and into Friday morning with crossing low pressure. Scattered rain and snow showers will continue overnight as an upper low continues east and away from the region. helping to drive a secondary cold front. The lack of deep moisture, marginal DGZ growth, and warmer ground temps will limit accumulation. Though the growing season is underway for many of our southern forecast points and just above freezing overnight temperature, frost remains unlikely given excessive cloud cover and low level winds just high enough to create enough turbulence for frost formation. Pressure heights will slowly rise as the upper low pulls farther east toward the New England coast Friday.
400 AM EDT Fri Apr 16 2021 High pressure will build into and over the area from the northwest today, then a dry backdoor surface cold front will drop through the region tonight.
A second surface cold front will press through the area overnight, providing additional cold air advection. A series of upper level waves, rotating around the western flank of the exiting upper level low, will dive southeastward across the region as well. Most of the showers will fall as liquid, however, across the I-80 corridor and highest ridge tops, the atmosphere will cool enough to support a mix of rain and snow or all snow. Heights will slowly rise today, as the upper low rotates toward the New England coast.
Old frontal boundary is out over the coastal waters with mainly east to northeast flow bringing slightly drier air in the low levels, and therefore, a majority of the low clouds have dissipated. Another significant upper level disturbance will bring a surface cold front down into the region and with it another round of showers and thunderstorms, mainly at the terminals during the afternoon on Friday into Friday evening.
Given the hilly terrain in that area, there's certainly potential for valley locations to dip into the low to mid 30s with widespread frost. Winds should remain light with afternoon temperatures warming into the lower 60.
Water vapor imagery indicates the center of our resident upper low has reached Lake Erie this afternoon. With the freezing level around 1500 ft AGL, some of the convection has been able to produce graupel. With the low well off to the east, expect good recovery in low-level temps and highs will be able to reach into the 50s.
418 AM EDT Fri Apr 16 2021 A cold front just east of the Midlands will move offshore overnight.
For now, the surface is dominated by high pressure and helping keep winds light this morning. High temperatures will be in the 50s again today except for southern counties which will warm into the low 60s.
1230 AM CDT Fri Apr 16 2021 Upper low continues to push east, now passing through lower Ontario, with plenty of residual cloud cover on the back side back over our area. Lingering morning sprinkles/drizzle have diminished as the low pulls east, so we're looking at a period of quiet weather as weak surface ridging continues to nudge in for tonight into Friday. This results in lows in the lower 30s in much of central and north-central Wisconsin under the most clearing, and middle 30s elsewhere.
350 AM EDT Fri Apr 16 2021 High pressure will build into and over the area from the northwest today, then a dry backdoor surface cold front will drop through the region tonight.
There is some model variation between coldest low 40s to warmer upper 40s.
A weak 500 MB trough will push through the region today and encounter abundant moisture that has been trapped across the region. Expect high temperatures today to be slightly warmer yet remain below seasonal normals and generally be in the 40s. Late this afternoon through tonight, high pressure ridge will start to influence the region and begin diminishing clouds and ending chances for precipitation from northwest to southeast.
With time this afternoon, low clouds will scatter out as the low level inversion is slowly mixed out.
225 AM EDT Fri Apr 16 2021 Dry high pressure will build into and over the area from the northwest today, then a dry backdoor surface cold front will drop through the region tonight.
Both of these are very conditional and the advisory could bust, but just a few degrees cooler or a few mph calmer winds will result in widespread frost across the advisory area. Chattanooga Airport, TN 67 49 61 45 66 / 0 40 50 10 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 64 47 58 44 63 / 0 20 40 20 10 Oak Ridge, TN 64 47 58 43 63 / 0 20 40 10 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 61 41 56 42 60 / 0 10 40 20 30 TN.
348 AM EDT Fri Apr 16 2021 Drier and cooler conditions will persist today.
258 AM EDT Fri Apr 16 2021 Latest surface analysis shows high pressure dominating the region as satellite reveals mostly clear skies across southern Indiana and central KY.
420 AM EDT Fri Apr 16 2021 High pressure will continue to extend into the region through tonight.
143 AM EDT Fri Apr 16 2021 Drier and cooler high pressure will work its way into the region, along with breezy conditions through Friday.
Gusty NW winds pre-front with northerly winds at KMAF/KHOB by later in the afternoon with passage of cold front. /issued 253 PM CDT Thu Apr 15 2021/ Upper low centered over UT this morning will pass over CO tonight as it opens up and move onto the plains Friday.
422 AM EDT Fri Apr 16 2021 Cool and dry northwesterly flow is currently ongoing across north and central Georgia this morning behind a cold frontal boundary clearing the state to the southeast. Morning lows will start out near climatological normals, mainly in the 40s across most of the area, along with some upper 30s in the higher elevations across the far northeast. This high pressure system will keep conditions dry throughout the day today. The position of the low should keep the majority of the precipitation in the southern portion of the forecast area, although some uncertainty remains regarding its track and timing.
A weak upper level ridge axis will slowly slide across the region ahead of an upper level low coming out of Colorado. This low is expected to move into the lower Missouri River Valley and gradually weaken as the ridging holds tight in front of it. There will be a gradual increase in cloud cover though, especially across the western sections as the clouds should generally stay west of the ridge axis. Temperatures look to be a bit warmer today with highs reaching the 50s for the entire area with lows tonight again the 20s and 30s.
This feature will also help to bring a cold front through the forecast area later this morning around daybreak. This front will back winds around to the north and help to scour out the low level moisture that has been leading to the persistent drizzle/fog across much of the region early this morning. Models drop two short waves to the southeast within the larger long wave trough this weekend.
336 AM CDT Fri Apr 16 2021 Today and Tonight: Rain chances will increase from west to east today as a low pressure system moves along the ArkLaMiss coastal line. As this system tracks along the coast, a warm frontal boundary has also become stationary along the coast increasing instability.
313 AM CDT Fri Apr 16 2021 Ongoing scattered showers will give way to more widespread activity this morning as the upper low moves into the central Plains.
Dew points are around freezing with temperatures in the low to mid 40s at this point. Temperatures today will rebound into the low to mid 60s as weak upper ridging quickly slides through the area ahead of a weak, flattening upper trough.
Heights will slowly rise today, as the upper low rotates toward the New England coast.
143 AM EDT Fri Apr 16 2021 High pressure over the northern Plains will extend into the region through Friday night.
Winds will become gusty out of the north this afternoon in the wake of the cold front. Despite this temps will still be warmer tomorrow afternoon than what we have seen today as the sun will be able to heat the surface more effectively as, even though there will still be some cloud cover, clouds will begin to thin.
With a warm/humid vertical profile up to the freezing level at around 10,000 ft, hail will have a difficult time making it to the ground, but will still be possible, given the amount of instability (up to about 1,000 kJ in our southern counties) and wind shear. Partial clearing is expected late tonight over the west, which will allow temperature to drop to near freezing in the far northwest.
330 AM EDT Fri Apr 16 2021 Drier and cooler conditions will persist today.
As the deep upper low pulls away from the area and tracks into New England this morning.
1256 AM CDT Fri Apr 16 2021 Upper level low is located across the central Rockies region this afternoon. Deep lift within area of upper level divergence across western CO just ahead of the low with lightning observed across that area. As the upper low moves into CO this evening, mid-level FGEN increases from the Panhandle into southwest Nebraska. The upper low tracks across southern NE during the day Friday. Accumulation during the day Friday will become more difficult due to the high mid April sun angle and surface temperatures a few degrees above the freezing mark.
101 AM EDT Fri Apr 16 2021 Drier and cooler high pressure will work its way into the region, along with breezy conditions through Friday.
144 AM MDT Fri Apr 16 2021 Currently the closed upper low center over Wyoming is finally merging with the next northern stream low pressure trough from Saskatchewan. The trough will move to the south today and skies will clear from NW to SE behind this trough. High pressure will bring mostly clear skies to the area tonight.
Overall the threat appears low due to the aforementioned increase in high clouds and because dewpoints are near or above freezing, thereby limiting cooling.
324 AM CDT Fri Apr 16 2021 08Z water vapor imagery and profiler data show an upper low over the central Rockies with the faster westerly flow across the southern Rockies and southern plains. At the surface, high pressure was the more dominant feature across the area with a diffuse frontal boundary just south of the Red River valley. This has kept the higher dewpoints south of the forecast area, but 925MB and 850MB profilers show south and southeasterly flow helping to bring some moisture into central and eastern KS.
410 AM EDT Fri Apr 16 2021 As a positively tilted upper-level trough propagates off to the NE through New England, a weak cold front is slowly sinking south across FL. However, with the parent low pulling away and ridging to the south, this system is expected to stall across the Nature Coast, leading to scattered showers and thunderstorms primarily north of the I-4 corridor.
However, coupled with IR, satellite imagery indicates that the low in the vicinity of nern CO/swrn NE is accompanied by the most significant ascent at this hour. This upper low will continue to steadily shift ewd thru the day, reaching ern NE/KS by this evening. As it does so, secondary trof axis/deformation zone will cross the nrn Plains from NW to SE. However, as drier mid-upper level air arrives in the wake of the secondary trof axis noted above, any upslope snow should begin to taper off around sunset.
239 AM EDT Fri Apr 16 2021 Upper level low pulls away today. Upper level low will continue its slow track eastward today to a position just off the northeast coast this afternoon. S/W ridging gradually advances into the region tonight along with some mid and high clouds.
(Today and tonight) An upper level low is moving east into the central plains early this morning. The cold front and westerly surface winds ahead of it, should help scour out the low clouds and fog by late morning or early afternoon. The cold front that has been advertised for several days now looks to move through the area faster than previously thought, making its way through the entire forecast area by mid afternoon, as opposed to tonight. Overnight lows will drop into the 40s behind the cold front tonight. An upper level low currently west of the northern Baja peninsula will move across the area tonight, bringing mid and upper level clouds with it, but have left the forecast dry for now with dry low level air moving in behind the front.
The upper level trough currently across the Rocky Mountains will move into the Mid- Mississippi River Valley late tonight into Saturday morning. Model soundings indicate that the low-levels will remain dry until roughly midnight or so and indicate the best saturation around 12z Saturday morning. The low-level saturation looks to continue throughout much of the day and carried PoPs throughout much of the day Saturday. Temperatures will continue to be on the cool side Saturday with highs only in the low to mid 60s.
08Z water vapor imagery and profiler data show an upper low over the central Rockies with the faster westerly flow across the southern Rockies and southern plains. At the surface, high pressure was the more dominant feature across the area with a diffuse frontal boundary just south of the Red River valley. This has kept the higher dewpoints south of the forecast area, but 925MB and 850MB profilers show south and southeasterly flow helping to bring some moisture into central and eastern KS.
405 AM CDT Fri Apr 16 2021 Early morning showers across EC Kansas and WC/SW Missouri this morning seem to be rooted in the mid levels as opposed to the lower levels. In the post cold frontal environment on Saturday with a mid level low moving through the area there appears to be good enough low level lapse rates and cool temperatures aloft to produce some fairly vigorous convective updrafts capable of some isolated thunderstorms Saturday.
Dry and increasingly warm conditions continue across the region into the weekend as upper level high pressure remains in place.