Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Clouds will be on the increase again during the day on Saturday, as a fast moving area low pressure in the upper atmosphere moves across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley regions. The precipitation should taper off during the day Saturday, and will give way to all snow by the end of the day as temperatures reach and fall below the freezing mark. Highs on Saturday look to be slightly warmer overall by a couple of degrees, but it will still be quite cold. The first one will be underway Saturday night as an impulse rotates through a large scale eastern CONUS upper trough.
The low pressure center is expected to remain over the Great Lakes region.
524 AM CST Fri Dec 8 2017 A positively tilted, multi-stream trough from Ontario to northwest Mexico will advance southeast in response to the progression of an upstream perturbation from northern Manitoba into the upper-MS Valley today and the mid-MS/lower-OH Valleys tonight. In the low levels, a cold front will move through the area this morning along with increasing low to mid-level clouds. Highs on Saturday will range from around 30 to the lower 30s in our IA counties to upper 30s to around 40s across the counties in the western part of our area.
For first row of Kansas counties near the CO border it will be close per wind gust program but I think will fall just short of warning criteria so will cancel the high wind watch. For tonight am looking at northwest winds in the 10 to 20 mph range with lows in the low to mid 20s. 850mb temperatures warm about 5F across the area supporting high temperatures in the low to mid 50s.
437 AM CST Fri Dec 8 2017 (Today and Tonight) The upper trough that brought precipitation to the area the past couple of days will continue to move off to the east today, with north to northwesterly flow aloft prevailing through tonight. Temperatures will be warmer but still below normal, with afternoon highs in the low to mid 50s. Tonight will be clear and not as cold, with overnight lows mainly in the lower 30s, although a few readings in the upper 20s will be possible along the I-10 corridor.
552 AM CST Fri Dec 8 2017 A trough axis will move across the area early in the period shifting winds to the northwest with rising heights/increasing thickness in it's wake. Abundant mid clouds/virga will be present early in the period, but the lower half of the column appears to dry for any flurries to reach the ground.
An upper trough and cold front will dive south through the region tonight into Saturday. Clouds will increase with the passage of the front and trough. Highs on Saturday will be in the middle 30s to the lower 40s as lows drop into the upper teens to the middle 20s Saturday night.
A cold pattern will continue through this forecast period with a strong upper ridge along the west coast and a deep trough over the eastern states. A few impulses will dig into the trough. Highs will be mainly in the lower 40s, but northwest winds with gusts around 20 mph will make it feel colder. Dry and very cold high pressure will move in for Saturday night.
/issued 342 AM CST Fri Dec 8 2017/ Northeasterly flow was in place across the forecast area this morning as the upper level trough that has brought a plethora of precipitation types across the state continues to slowly move off to the east. This will likely allow min temperatures for most of the forecast area to make it into the low teens, and I wouldn't be surprised if a few locations in the Rolling Plains flirt with single digits before the cloud cover starts to increase.
High pressure will remain over the region for the next several days. Large dry upper ridge centered over Norcal continues to be the main weather maker for our area. However, the ridge continues to keep a light offshore flow pattern over central CA, and the airmass over our area remains very dry.
cold high pressure is moving southeast of the area with clear skies and temperatures in the teens with light southwest winds. partly cloudy with slightly warmer temperatures with highs in the lower 30s north to upper 30s south. Lows should be warmer than tonight in the upper teens north to lower 20s elsewhere.
957 AM EST Fri Dec 8 2017 Low pressure over the Gulf of Mexico will track northward off the east coast late tonight and Saturday.
08Z water vapor imagery shows an upper trough stretching from the TX Big Bend northeast through the mid MS river valley and the Great Lakes region. The axis of this upper trough had already pass over the forecast area. To the west, an upper ridge extended north into British Columbia. A wind shift was noted along the trough axis with area OBS showing warmer temps and higher dewpoints behind the wind shift. Lows tonight are forecast to be in the lower and middle 20s as northwest winds keep some mixing of the boundary layer and prevent the bottom from dropping out of temps overnight. On Saturday the arctic air mass begins to retreat eastward as the main trough digs over the eastern US.
The shorter range models are in good agreement with this feature reaching northwest Wisconsin by early evening, with a cold front swinging across central Illinois late in the night.
For today, high pressure will lead to a round of near normal temperatures and breezy northeast winds. For today, high pressure will begin to build into the area bringing dry weather, near normal temperatures and breezy northeast winds. For the weekend, high pressure strengthens with a return to above normal daytime temperatures and lighter winds. Winds will decrease Saturday as high pressure builds across Arizona from the west.
Today Deep moisture continues to stream over the region on southwesterly flow aloft in advance of a positively tilted trough over TX. Meanwhile, at the sfc, a cold airmass remains in place with temperatures early this morning in the lower to middle 30s. The combination of these features has produced a mix of light rain and snow acrs the area overnight, resulting in some minor accumulations of snow mainly on grassy surfaces and bridges. The upper trough will move east today, and this will shift the deeper moisture to the east of the area. Despite precipitation coming to an end through the day, cloudiness will persist and this will keep max temps from climbing much with highs only into the lower to middle 40s today.
633 AM EST Fri Dec 8 2017 High pressure and dry conditions will be present today into tonight. An area of low pressure and associated cold front will move across the region on Saturday bringing snow the area.
520 PM EDT Sat May 6 2017 Low pressure will maintain rain chances through the weekend. Latest model soundings are showing that after 06z on the highest ridge tops, the air column should be cold enough to support all snow.
Weak high pressure will pass southeast across the region tonight into Sunday. The high will bring light winds and clear skies later tonight into early Sunday morning. Given a decent setup for radiational cooling, and the low dew points expected in some areas, lowered the low temperatures a few degrees from the blended short term model guidance. This gives lows in the lower to middle 30s across the area. There is some potential for lows to drop a few degrees cooler than currently forecast, perhaps as low as the upper 20s in some areas, given the dew points currently forecast. Highs should be similar to today, in the upper 50s to lower 60s well inland, with temperatures turning cooler near the lake.
The pcpn pattern tonight has cold season look and feel with persistent cyclonic flow continuing to promote orographic rain showers mixing with snow showers at the highest elevations. Minimum temps struggle to get below freezing so any light snow accum would be confined to ridgetop grassy surfaces. Expect scattered showers to develop again tomorrow under deep upper low/cold air aloft moving very slowly from the eastern Great Lakes into interior New England.
Northern branch of upper trough moves into the Pacific NW tonight. Energy ahead of the trough may link up with remaining instability to give thunderstorms to the NW corner.
VFR conditions will continue to prevail through the period as high pressure remains firmly entrenched over the region. High pressure remains over the region resulting in light winds and warmer temperatures today. /Issued 321 AM CDT Sat May 6 2017/ Highly amplified pattern currently in place across the CONUS will be slow to evolve and with ridging aloft to dominate conditions across the Southern Plains for the next several days.
647 PM EDT Sat May 6 2017 Back edge of moisture wrapping around upper low west of Buffalo will continue to provide some lower/mid VFR cloudiness this evening.
It's going to be unseasonably cool tonight with everybody dropping at least into the low 40s.
Between 3 pm and 6 pm the first batch of moisture and developing precip will become evident as what appears to be an elevated warm front spreads across the area from the north through the evening.
Highs will be a few degrees warmer today along with sunny skies and low RH values. Max temps should be a couple of degrees warmer than Fri as H85 temps warm slightly.
Models indicate that winds will become southwest and lighten this eve as a secondary cold front approaches the area. A reinforcing cold front will arrive early Sunday morning, and will not affect the region much other than keep overnight low temperatures below normal again (low to mid 50s).
1218 PM CDT Sat May 6 2017 Another quiet day in store for the area Saturday as surface and mid/upper ridging overspread the area. As the ridge slides off to the east southerly return flow will commence.
/issued 943 AM CDT Sat May 6 2017/ Skies are clear and temperatures were quickly rising into the lower 70s this morning. Current forecast has temperatures rising into the lower 80s this afternoon.
High pressure will remain over the area today, shifting slowly east to the West Gulf over the next 24 hours. Mid level ridging remains just upstream, moving more overhead in the next 24 hours. Quiet conditions are expected to continue through the forecast period with upper level ridging providing plenty of subsidence across the region. /issued 416 AM CDT Sat May 6 2017/ SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday): Highly-amplified upper level ridging across the Central US will dominate the short term across Deep South Texas and keep conditions benign through Sunday. The axis of the ridge will move overhead the Southern Plains on Sunday with a deep 500mb low pressure system digging behind it towards Baja California.
SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday night): As overhead high pressure starts to fade to the east, mid level ridging will shift over Texas. Low level moisture return will support low clouds, while the shift in the upstream mid level pattern to southwest as the influence of the upper ridge is replaced by that of the Southern California upper low, will favor more upper cloudiness. Although low temperatures tonight in the lower 60s will be a bit below normal, temperatures on Sunday and Sunday night will be near normal, and the halcyon weather will continue through the short term.
144 PM EDT Sat May 6 2017 Aviation Chilly air will continue to flow into Michigan the next few days as stubborn low pressure over the eastern Great Lakes Region lifts slowly north into Quebec.
/issued 1022 AM CDT Sat May 6 2017/ High pressure at the sfc and dry nly flow aloft will result in a very pleasant Saturday.
After an upper level trough of low pres moves across the region this evening, high pres will build in, bringing dry weather with slowly warming temps through the first half of the week. During the latter half of the week a large low pres system will settle in over the ne Pacific bringing more showers and cooler temps back to the Pacific NW.
1123 AM MDT Sat May 6 2017 Latest water vapor satellite shows upper ridge sliding east and is now centered across eastern Montana and Wyoming. At the surface, high pressure is centered over the eastern Dakotas with a lee trough deepening in Wyoming. Upper ridge will continue to shift east today before gradually breaking down on Sunday as a strong upper low moves onshore over the southwest CONUS. With the upper ridge centered over the area, mostly clear skies and warm temperatures will be common today. Southeasterly winds will increase through the day as the lee trough strengthens with breezy/windy conditions this afternoon across the SD plains. On Sunday, the upper ridge becomes centered over the Dakotas with southwest flow over northeastern Wyoming.
139 PM EDT Sat May 6 2017 Low pressure will maintain rain chances through the weekend. A sprawling upper low remains entrenched over the region this morning. Fries Upper low will remain over the forecast area tonight and Sunday maintaining shower chances and well below normal temperatures.
/issued 648 AM CDT Sat May 6 2017/ /12Z TAFS/ A ridge of high pressure will dominate the region through tonight. /issued 407 AM CDT Sat May 6 2017/ (Today and Tonight) Dry and warmer weather will prevail across the area today, as an amplified upper ridge resides across the Plains states. Subsidence associated with the ridge aloft will result in a cloud free sky today, with temperatures 5 to 10 degrees warmer than yesterday. Tonight will be mostly clear and warmer, with light south to southeast winds and overnight lows in the upper 50s and lower 60s.
156 PM CDT Sat May 6 2017 A blocking pattern has set up over the midwest for the next few days. A deep long wave trough over the Ohio Valley has developed a weak backdoor cold frontal boundary that extends from southern IL up into central MO. The weaker cooler air aloft and northerly winds will somewhat inhibit the high temperatures today expected in the mid to upper 70s. The main ridge over the northern plains will start to move into the area Sunday helping to increase low level temperatures slightly, with the possibility of a few 80s in the western portion of the CWA on Sunday as a stronger wind out of the south-southeast sets up.
/issued 322 AM CDT Sat May 6 2017/ Upper ridge centered over the Rockies this morning will slowly drift east through the weekend. As it does an upper trough along the West Coast will move ashore developing a cut off low later today that will drift southward toward Mexico. By early Sunday this low should be over Srn CA.
Surface analysis this morning places a ridge of high pressure over Texas and Arkansas with a cold front located over Northern Missouri. West winds will increase to 15-20 mph by midday, but will gradually shift from the north as a weak cold front moves into the CWA this afternoon. The deep trough over the east will slowly lift northeast early in the week with another closed cyclone moving very slowly out of the Desert Southwest. A rather high-amplitude ridge will build over the central CONUS during this time.
Long wave trough will remain over the eastern U. with upper ridge forecasted over the Southern Plains.
Temperatures have climbed to near 90F near a thermal ridge over eastern Montana and far western ND. Winds will again be gusty east of the trough, similar to slightly lower than today. Sharp upper level ridge axis will continue to slowly nudge east as it is influenced by a closed low over the Desert Southwest and associated energy ejecting out of it.
219 PM CDT Sat May 6 2017 Clear skies and warm temperatures were observed across the region today, as a ridge of high pressure slowly moved in from the west. Similar conditions are expected on Sunday, with sunny skies and highs again ranging from the low 80s over southeastern Kansas to mid 70s over the eastern Ozarks.
The cold frontal boundary that brought showers and thunderstorms to South Florida yesterday continues to move off well to the east across the central Bahamas and into the open Atlantic. In its wake, dry high pressure continues to build into the region, with dewpoints falling well into the 50s and even upper 40s. With daytime high temperatures struggling to reach into the upper 70s for most areas, it is noticeably cooler across the region despite abundant sunshine. For tonight, continued quiet weather continues with clear skies and chilly low temperatures ranging from the low and mid 50s in the interior, to upper 50s to mid 60s along the Atlantic and Gulf coasts.
A high amplitude ridge will make for slow changes in the short term with minimal cloud cover expected tonight.
Upper air analysis reveals a very deep trough (3 to 4 standard deviations below normal) across the eastern CONUS, with central Kentucky and northern Indiana under northwest flow. The low pressure over Iowa will have an impact on our weather in the short term, and will dive quickly toward our region by daybreak. Precipitation associated with the low will begin moving into southern Indiana and northern Kentucky by 09z, and will move very quickly to the south-southeast. We might see some clearing behind the low starting in southern Indiana/northern Kentucky by early afternoon. Freezing levels will be quite low, generally around 5kft-6kft, so small hail is certainly a possibility in the stronger storms.
Forecast wind gusts do barely exceed wind advisory criteria (30 kts) in the higher terrain of Cherokee County (Lookout Mountain) but coverage is not great enough for a wind advisory. Moisture is very limited with dewpoints barely reaching the low 50s right ahead of the front.
1235 PM CDT Sat May 6 2017 Sunny skies and VFR conditions are expected to prevail at all four TAF sites for the entire forecast period as high pressure builds over east Texas today. A strengthening ridge of high pressure in the mid and upper levels will continue to provide a tranquil weather pattern across south central Texas through this weekend.
An amplified upper ridge axis will extend north across the Central U. as a closed low tracks into Southern California. South to southeast winds will prevail across western Nebraska providing a mild night with lows in the lower 50s. The upper level ridge axis will remain across the Central U. as a closed low rotates slowly east across Southern California. Warm 850mb temperatures will reach 18-25C with highs forecast in the low to mid 80s. Further east, a warm front on the nose of a low level jet will advance toward eastern Nebraska, with a slight chance for thunderstorms late evening for areas such as O'Neill and Butte.
Weak low pressure moving along a stationary front along the Ohio River is moving eastward through tonight. High pressure will move in tonight clearing skies for the most part.
1214 PM CDT Sat May 6 2017 A high-amplitude ridge centered along the spine of the Rockies will shift east into the Great Plains this weekend, downstream from a split-stream trough moving onto the West Coast. The ridging aloft will support continued dry weather with above-normal afternoon high temperatures.
The cold front will finally push through the region mid to late Sunday morning. This will push the boundary for convection east of the Divide and allow a dry and cooler air mass to settle into the Northern Rockies. Even with plenty of sun, high temperatures will be only in the mid and upper 50s, or about 10 degrees cooler, on Sunday.
For tonight mid level ridge axis will slowly shift towards the central dakotas. On Sunday surface ridging will continue in Minnesota with low pressure developing over the northern high plains in advance of approaching northern stream short wave. With this, surface pressure gradient will tighten some for more mixing over all but the far east closer to ridge axis.
346 PM CDT Sat May 6 2017 An upper ridge over the area will continue to result in warm and dry weather for the next several days.
Surface wise, a broad ridge extends from the northwestern Gulf of Mexico and into extreme south Florida and our region. Little change in the overall pattern with a ridge of high pressure hovering around our entire region.
238 PM EDT Sat May 6 2017 An upper low bringing unsettled weather drifts east through tonight. A wet and warmer system for mid and late week. Upper level low that has been quite a nuisance the past few days continues to slowly drift to the northeast. Continue to highlight a chance for a thunderstorm this afternoon based on the low surface based CAPE values during peak heating along with modest lapse rates with the cold temperatures aloft. Upper trough slides through later this evening and into tonight and after it passes we should see shower activity die down everywhere but in the mountains. Skies will be clearing out tomorrow and we should see enough sun across the Lowlands to push temperatures to near 60 degrees.
AC and CI spilling over mid level ridge getting ready to enter the far northern FA. The amplified upper ridge currently over the Rockies will begin to move slowly into the western Plains today.
will give the entire CWA daytime highs ranging in the lower to mid 80s. Lee-side trough setting up over the Front Range this afternoon and again on Sunday will increase the surface gradient for the afternoon period.
At the surface, low pressure continues to move through the northeast, with the trailing cold front that passed through the area yesterday now southeast of the state and high pressure building over the Gulf of Mexico and eastward toward the area. Otherwise, the day will be very nice, with highs in the 70s to around 80, dew points in the 40s and 50s, and relative humidity on the low side.
High pressure and a drier airmass will build into the region Sunday and Sunday night. The period begins with a very blocky upper air pattern in place across North America with deep closed lows centered in southwest Quebec and near or just south of California. Upper level ridging will extend from the western Gulf of Mexico into central Canada. This pattern will only slowly change with the upper low in the northeast possibly splitting with a low retrograding into Ontario, and the upper low in the southwest U. At the surface there will be a northwest-southeast oriented front separating the cooler air to our northeast and warmer air to our southwest. Initially this front will be to our southwest, but it will move northeast as a warm front.
However the weak cold front appears to lag somewhat, vaguely across MN and WI. The forcing should quickly exit into MO and IL by 12z with the wind shift, with a slightly cooler, drier airmass into IA later today.
310 PM CDT Sat May 6 2017 Low pressure system from the clipper-like upper short wave is quickly moving into central Tennessee. High pressure settles over the area tonight with a light and variable wind.
For tomorrow, the lee trof will deepen with a tighter pressure gradient across the forecast district.
The models are developing a warm front across Ncntl Neb and west of the front. South winds will increase to 15 to 25 mph west of the front and an upper level ridge axis will remain over Nebraska promoting clear skies.
321 PM PDT Sat May 6 2017 Cooler with a chance of mountain showers and thunderstorms this weekend.
As an h500 ridge moves east warm air will move off the high plains into western and central North Dakota today and Sunday. Within the low level mixed layer gusty southeast winds 20 to 30 mph will mix down to the surface along and west of the Missouri river. Highs today will be in the lower to mid 80s west and the 70s east. Tonight mainly clear skies will continue with lows in the 40s east to the lower 50s west. A narrow h500 ridge remains over the central US and Canada. This rather blocked up flow pattern will continue through much of the following week with the H500 lows generally dumbelling around their respective positions and the narrow ridge more or less remaining in place.
Large upper low off of southern California will track eastward to position over southern Nevada by 6 pm Sunday.
55 High pressure will dominate through the period for widespread VFR conditions. Pattern is dominated by deep troughs over the Ohio Valley and off the west coast. In between is a large upper ridge stretching from far west Texas northward to Montana. A compact upper level impulse will travel down the eastern periphery of the upper ridge today and push a back door cold front through the region. Front will only bring a wind shift, a few clouds and some slightly cooler and drier air to the region. Otherwise the upper ridge will begin to build over the area as yet another upper low develops and moves into southern California.