Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Tonight, the high pressure should remain close enough to allow winds to decouple this evening, for lows quickly dropping to the mid 30s east to lower 40s west.
The upper ridge is on its way from the Plains, so 850 mb temps are slowly going to rise overnight in the south and west. But, the Plateau and low lying areas are still going to see lows in the mid 30s Friday morning, with some areas possibly even getting near freezing. Temperatures will start warming up Friday with the ridge overhead, and continue into the weekend.
The bulk of the showers are expected to dissipate as they cross the higher terrain of the Siskiyous and Cascades, but not all, so shower chances will persist for much of the area through this afternoon.
1140 AM EDT Thu Oct 17 2019 A deep storm over New England will provide cooler and blustery conditions today into Friday. We are on the gusty back side of the low now and it will be a chilly and windy day.
Morning satellite imagery showing an upper trough pushing into eastern Oregon this morning. Showers will continue to develop ahead of the trough as it moves into southwest Idaho this afternoon. For many sites, today's high temperature will be this morning as temperatures will drop through the day behind the cold front. Satellite imagery showing the cold front located over central Oregon this morning. Ridgetops weather stations over Harney county this morning generally 15-20 mph with gusts 25-30 mph.
While the influx of surface moisture will be limited ahead of the upper trof and associated weak cold front, modest elevated moisture transport is expected to result in weak instability Friday evening/night as these features move eastward across the forecast area.
As the low moves east-southeastward, a cold front will follow moving across the area during the day tomorrow.
235 PM CDT Thu Oct 17 2019 Sunny and warmer conditions today under upper level ridging. Another warmer day, near normal temperatures for mid-October, on Friday as the ridge moves to the east.
156 PM MDT Thu Oct 17 2019 An upper ridge covers the central CONUS, as a trough pushes in from the west. As the upper trough continues to approach the region, a cold front will sweep through the northern plains tonight. Expect breezy northwesterly winds and cooler temperatures (highs in the mid 50s to mid 60s) for Friday, with some light rain possible across the northwestern half of the CWA.
307 PM EDT Thu Oct 17 2019 Water vapor imagery highlights a broad mean-layer ridge over the Western Caribbean. Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen will move northeast towards the Florida Panhandle tonight through Friday night.
In the low levels, a lee trough over the High Plains will be overtaken by a Pacific front moving out of the Rockies. High-level clouds will continue to overspread the area tonight in concert with the passage of the mid-level ridge axis. On Friday, an intensifying pressure gradient will yield breezy south winds ahead of the front with afternoon temperatures rising into the lower to mid 70s.
333 PM EDT Thu Oct 17 2019 A deep storm over New England will provide cooler and blustery conditions today into Friday. We are on the gusty back side of the low as it remains quite deep while it moves through New England.
351 PM CDT Thu Oct 17 2019 Tonight and Friday: Continued cooler than normal through the period and mostly dry but there will be a slight chance of rain in the southeast by late Friday afternoon. Cloud cover will help keep our morning lows in the lower 50s across the south tonight while temperatures drop back into the 40s further north. Greatest cloud cover will help hold temperatures over east Mississippi in the upper 60s Friday while temperatures top out in the lower 70s in the west.
A deepening upper low over S TX is cranking PVA bumps in the FL180 deck. However, upper lvls more w-sw and cirrus continue to generate into area from upper low, cut off from main westerlies, being steered to the east by separate southern stream jet. Precip with this low will remain near coast and not affect cwa. This low is also keeping height and thickness fields in place and expect persistence in temps from yesterday into today, and only a few degrees warmer on Friday under continued dry airmass.
338 PM CDT Thu Oct 17 2019 South winds under a ridge of high pressure made for a relatively quiet day across our forecast area, as the warmer air brought our temperatures back up to seasonably normal. Expecting breezy south winds overnight with low temperatures a bit more warmer than this morning.
A Pacific cold front will arrive across nrn Nebraska just before sunrise also. This will certainly work Friday night as high pressure moves overhead. Friday's temperatures are a deterministic model blend plus bias correction which tends to work best as the cooler air moves in. This temperature forecast is a few degrees cooler than the guidance blend.
Winds remain out of the south overnight at around 10-15mph, which will moderate the low temperatures compared to the past few nights. Overnight lows in the lower 50s are expected across most of the county warning area (CWA). Daytime temperatures on Friday increase into the middle and upper 80s, as a nose of warm air advection (WAA) intensifies ahead of a developing lee surface cyclone across the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandle region. Chances for precipitation along this front remain low, as dew point depressions in the low-levels will be fairly large. Temperatures behind the front will fall back into the lower 50s, as the source region for air in the post-frontal environment is essentially modified continental dry air that has been in the region the last few days.
Temperatures will drop back to freezing again tonight and expect cooler, more fall-like temperatures on Friday.
A cold front will cross the state this afternoon and evening.
319 PM CDT Thu Oct 17 2019 Current satellite shows some high cirrus moving across Central Mississippi in response to the developing low pressure system in the western Gulf. Dry conditions will continue through the remainder of the work week due to the influence of high pressure.
450 PM EDT Thu Oct 17 2019 Low pressure will slowly cross the area tonight and move into the Maritimes on Friday.
331 PM CDT Thu Oct 17 2019 An upper level low pressure trough out west will make its way east across the region tonight through Friday night along with a surface Pacific cool front. Highs will be little cooler mainly in the 60s on Friday afternoon with the clouds and weak caa. The clouds will move east with the upper trough and surface front Friday night with steady west breezes mainly under 10 mph with lows around 40 degrees.
1051 AM CDT Thu Oct 17 2019 High pressure centered over the region this afternoon will provide pleasant fall conditions with sunshine, light wind and temperatures topping out in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Will see the start of a warming trend this afternoon as an upper level ridge shifts eastward to MO by this evening.
456 PM EDT Thu Oct 17 2019 Building high pressure will bring dry weather and moderating temperature for the weekend.
A compact, yet potent upper level low over south-central Texas is producing some patchy light rain over parts of south-central and the middle Texas coast. Weak upper level ridging will amplify over South Texas on Friday in the wake of the upper level feature. 850 mb temps would support high temperatures in the lower 80's. The upper level ridge gets nudged eastward Friday night as a weak short wave over the southern plains approaches North Texas.
Medium Lingering influence of mid level cyclonic flow and low level thermal trough has resulted in a stubbornly slow process of eroding the cloud cover. Expecting improvement overnight with an easing of low level thermal trough and DCVA taking hold.
252 PM CDT Thu Oct 17 2019 Near seasonable temperatures in the upper 40s to 50s and plenty of sunshine seen across most of the area this afternoon as surface ridging remains in control. If deeper mixing occurs, highs could possibly be a few degrees warmer.
A cold front will move though late this afternoon bringing cooler and showery conditions to the area. Showers will increase over the mountains and higher elevations behind the front with a stray shower possible in the lower elevations. Snow is possible above 6000 ft with 2 to 4 inches in the highest elevations.
539 PM EDT Thu Oct 17 2019 A deep storm over New England will provide cooler and blustery conditions today into Friday. We are on the gusty back side of the low as it remains quite deep while it moves through New England.
528 PM MDT Thu Oct 17 2019 An upper ridge covers the central CONUS, as a trough pushes in from the west. As the upper trough continues to approach the region, a cold front will sweep through the northern plains tonight. Expect breezy northwesterly winds and cooler temperatures (highs in the mid 50s to mid 60s) for Friday, with some light rain possible across the northwestern half of the CWA.
The clear, cool conditions will continue tonight with a high threat for frost formation as high pressure remains over the region.
With clearing skies, dying winds, and cold air advection behind the front, it will be a cooler night with lows down into the lower to mid 40s.
516 PM EDT Thu Oct 17 2019 Building high pressure will bring dry weather and moderating temperature for the weekend.
759 PM EDT Thu Oct 17 2019 Potential Tropical Cyclone 16 over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico will be the main driver of the weather through the weekend, as it rapidly moves northeast towards the Florida Panhandle.
With a more active weather pattern moving through the PAC NW and the northern Rockies over the next day or so, model data continues to support the idea for stronger gusty winds, especially over the higher elevations of central Montana.
Lows will range from the lower 60s across the far north to the low to mid 70s along the immediate Treasure Coast.
741 PM EDT Thu Oct 17 2019 A deep storm over New England will provide cooler and blustery conditions today into Friday. Winds subsiding this evening as gradient slackens thanks to bomb cyclone tracking into the Gulf of Maine this evening.
743 PM EDT Thu Oct 17 2019 Building high pressure will bring dry weather and moderating temperature for the weekend.
An upper level low pressure trough out west will make its way east across the region tonight through Friday night along with a surface Pacific cool front. Highs will be little cooler mainly in the 60s on Friday afternoon with the clouds and weak caa. The clouds will move east with the upper trough and surface front Friday night with steady west breezes mainly under 10 mph with lows around 40 degrees.
1043 PM EDT Thu Oct 17 2019 A deep storm exiting eastern New England will provide cooler and blustery conditions into Friday. Winds subsiding late this evening as gradient slackens thanks to bomb cyclone tracking into the Gulf of Maine this evening.
714 PM EDT Thu Oct 17 2019 A deep storm over New England will provide cooler and blustery conditions today into Friday. Winds subsiding this evening as gradient slackens thanks to bomb cyclone tracking into the Gulf of Maine this evening.
An upper ridge covers the central CONUS, as a trough pushes in from the west. As the upper trough continues to approach the region, a cold front will sweep through the northern plains tonight. Expect breezy northwesterly winds and cooler temperatures (highs in the mid 50s to mid 60s) for Friday, with some light rain possible across the northwestern half of the CWA.
/issued 319 PM CDT Thu Oct 17 2019/ Current satellite shows some high cirrus moving across Central Mississippi in response to the developing low pressure system in the western Gulf. Dry conditions will continue through the remainder of the work week due to the influence of high pressure.
449 PM CDT Thu Oct 17 2019 Current upper air analysis and satellite imagery shows a ridge from the high northern plains down to the southern plains. Current guidance from NHC shows tropical cyclone sixteen is in the Bay of Campeche moving north out of the Bay into the central Gulf of Mexico.
1036 PM EDT Thu Oct 17 2019 A deep storm exiting eastern New England will provide cooler and blustery conditions into Friday. Winds subsiding this evening as gradient slackens thanks to bomb cyclone tracking into the Gulf of Maine this evening.
616 PM CDT Thu Oct 17 2019 Mid level ridging in place over the area today, which has kept the weather pretty fair through they day. This low level southerly flow will continue through the night and into the day on Friday.
807 PM MDT Thu Oct 17 2019 Cold air advection spreading across our forecast area from the west at this time, along with 500mb height falls, as upper trough moves into the northern Rockies. However, not much precipitation occurring at the lower elevations yet as low levels are quite dry initially. We may still see some pockets of brief moderate rain showers over the plains later tonight as trough axis pushes east. A cold front will move though late this afternoon bringing cooler and showery conditions to the area. Showers will increase over the mountains and higher elevations behind the front with a stray shower possible in the lower elevations. Snow is possible above 6000 ft with 2 to 4 inches in the highest elevations.
403 PM CDT Thu Oct 17 2019 Mid level ridging in place over the area today, which has kept the weather pretty fair through they day. This low level southerly flow will continue through the night and into the day on Friday.
643 PM CDT Thu Oct 17 2019 Near seasonable temperatures in the upper 40s to 50s and plenty of sunshine seen across most of the area this afternoon as surface ridging remains in control. If deeper mixing occurs, highs could possibly be a few degrees warmer.
1041 PM EDT Thu Oct 17 2019 A deep storm exiting eastern New England will provide cooler and blustery conditions into Friday. Winds subsiding this evening as gradient slackens thanks to bomb cyclone tracking into the Gulf of Maine this evening.
/issued 449 PM CDT Thu Oct 17 2019/ Current upper air analysis and satellite imagery shows a ridge from the high northern plains down to the southern plains. Current guidance from NHC shows tropical cyclone sixteen is in the Bay of Campeche moving north out of the Bay into the central Gulf of Mexico.
622 PM CDT Thu Oct 17 2019 An upper level low pressure trough out west will make its way east across the region tonight through Friday night along with a surface Pacific cool front. Highs will be little cooler mainly in the 60s on Friday afternoon with the clouds and weak caa. The clouds will move east with the upper trough and surface front Friday night with steady west breezes mainly under 10 mph with lows around 40 degrees.
812 PM EDT Thu Oct 17 2019 Update/Aviation - Frost and Freezing Temperatures Tonight.
Otherwise, VFR will prevail at all TAF sites through the period as high pressure remains in control.
/issued 218 PM CDT Thu Oct 17 2019/ (Tonight and Friday) Water vapor satellite imagery shows an upper level low moving east across the I-10 corridor this afternoon, but a lack of moisture is prohibiting precipitation from occurring across our region. Expect dry weather to continue through Friday, with some warming as the 850 mb thermal ridge and warm southerly low level flow strengthen. Expect lows tonight in the low 50s and highs Friday in the mid to upper 80s.
Sunny and warmer conditions today under upper level ridging. Another warmer day, near normal temperatures for mid-October, on Friday as the ridge moves to the east.
932 PM CDT Thu Oct 17 2019 GOES East IR imagery showed considerable high clouds over the southern two-thirds of MS, associated with Potential Tropical Cyclone 16 over the western gulf. These high clouds were streaming north ahead of a southern branch closed low over TX, and encountering stronger northern branch westerlies over the Midsouth. /issued 319 PM CDT Thu Oct 17 2019/ Current satellite shows some high cirrus moving across Central Mississippi in response to the developing low pressure system in the western Gulf. Dry conditions will continue through the remainder of the work week due to the influence of high pressure.
As a result of this low moving onshore, South winds will become fairly gusty along the Coos coast from mid to late evening.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 43 73 48 69 / 0 0 0 50 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 40 70 44 68 / 0 0 0 50 Oak Ridge, TN 39 69 44 68 / 0 0 0 40 Tri Cities Airport, TN 36 66 39 67 / 0 0 0 40 TN.
Latest temps generally range from the mid to upper 40s Plateau to the lower to mid 50s elsewhere.
636 PM EDT Thu Oct 17 2019 Low pressure will slowly cross the area tonight and move into the Maritimes on Friday.
1024 PM CDT Thu Oct 17 2019 Mid level ridging in place over the area today, which has kept the weather pretty fair through they day. This low level southerly flow will continue through the night and into the day on Friday.
An extensive band of cirrus with some lower AC cigs will continue to lift NNE across portions of extreme Ern TX/N LA/Scntrl AR overnight, but should gradually diminish from W to E late tonight through mid-morning as an upper low entering SE TX attm drifts slowly E into S LA.
221 AM EDT Fri Oct 18 2019 Dry weather and seasonable temperatures expected today with high pressure in control.
258 AM EDT Fri Oct 18 2019 Updated at 245 AM EDT Fri Oct 18 2019 The CWA sits in front of an advancing upper trough with its axis positioned through eastern Iowa. At the surface, high pressure is centered over central Indiana with a larger area running parallel to the axis of the upper ridge. Areas between the Lake Cumberland area through the Bluegrass will see some broken cloud cover from the low pressure system moving north from the Gulf of Mexico.
The clouds may keep temperatures a couple of degrees cooler today than previously thought over portions of North Mississippi where the cirrus may be more dense. Highs will range from the upper 60s to the lower 70s.
339 AM CDT Fri Oct 18 2019 Today and Tonight: A mid-level ridge axis extends from western Ontario toward the Mississippi River valley and will continue to push east as short- wave troughing moves across the northern Rockies and toward the Great Basin. At the surface, a front/lee trough extending across the High Plains will continue to move east toward the region today and tonight.
320 AM EDT Fri Oct 18 2019 High pressure will prevail today.
255 AM MDT Fri Oct 18 2019 Current surface analysis shows low pressure over western ND, with warm front stretching southeast into eastern portions of SD and NE and a cold front extending southwest into WY. The cold front is currently from far northwest SD to northeast WY.
Lee troughing in the high Plains and a high pressure area over the Great Lakes is resulting in a strong pressure gradient. That deep mixing will also result in warm high temperatures, likely in the low to mid 70s across eastern KS and western MO. With humidity values dropping into the low to mid 30% range, humidity values will be close to or lower than wind gusts. Tonight, the cold front that's associated with the upper wave that's moving across the Central Plains to Upper Midwest will move through the area.
232 AM EDT Fri Oct 18 2019 Building high pressure will bring dry weather and moderating temperature for the weekend.
Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen in the southwest Gulf of Mexico early this morning, is expected to move northeastward and intensify in response to a vigorous mid and upper level disturbance migrating eastward and across the Gulf coast region.
Our weather for the remainder of the morning and through the day today will be influenced by an incoming trough of low pressure aloft and surface cold front. This cold front will move from west to east.
Some bridges could get slick, but other travel problems are not expected.
218 AM EDT Fri Oct 18 2019 The wind will subside later today as high pressure moves in.
159 AM EDT Fri Oct 18 2019 Rain showers will taper off today as high pressure slides eastward out of the Great Lakes.
1240 AM EDT Fri Oct 18 2019 Aviation - Frost and Freezing Temperatures Tonight.
Dry and warmer this weekend with highs of 65 to 70. Ramping warm advection seen aloft yet boundary layer mixing remains weak and given frosty start only about a cat warmer temps attainable this aftn.
/issued 759 PM EDT Thu Oct 17 2019/ Potential Tropical Cyclone 16 over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico will be the main driver of the weather through the weekend, as it rapidly moves northeast towards the Florida Panhandle.
/issued 932 PM CDT Thu Oct 17 2019/ GOES East IR imagery showed considerable high clouds over the southern two-thirds of MS, associated with Potential Tropical Cyclone 16 over the western gulf. These high clouds were streaming north ahead of a southern branch closed low over TX, and encountering stronger northern branch westerlies over the Midsouth. /issued 319 PM CDT Thu Oct 17 2019/ Current satellite shows some high cirrus moving across Central Mississippi in response to the developing low pressure system in the western Gulf. Dry conditions will continue through the remainder of the work week due to the influence of high pressure.
Winds should gradually increase from the northeast as a low pressure system approaches from the southwest. At KGPT, KNEW, KMSY, and KHUM a period of MVFR ceilings and visibilities may develop after 18z as some light rain develops on the northwest side of the low pressure system. Improving conditions back into VFR range are expected to take hold at nearly all of the terminals after 00z as the low tracks further to the east.
The result will be warmer temperatures beginning today and continued sunny skies.
330 AM EDT Fri Oct 18 2019 The wind will subside later today as high pressure moves in.
258 AM EDT Fri Oct 18 2019 Dry weather and seasonable temperatures expected today with high pressure in control.
While mixing heights will not be all that great, 850 mb temperatures support high temperatures in the lower to even middle 70s over most areas. We have gone on the high side of guidance (close to the 90th percentile).
524 AM EDT Fri Oct 18 2019 The wind will subside later today as high pressure moves in.
736 AM EDT Fri Oct 18 2019 Tempo LIFR first hour at KTRI after some brief dense fog came in earlier this morning, otherwise, VFR will prevail at all TAF sites through at least 06Z Saturday as high pressure remains in control.
723 AM EDT Fri Oct 18 2019 High pressure will prevail today.
The only real effect this has had on our area is in the form of enhanced high level cloudiness as the lower and mid levels remain quite dry. Moistening of the lower levels does look to become sufficiently deep for a few showers over the far southeast this afternoon and tonight as this system continues to move northeast.
Mountain Passes like Lookout and Lolo are currently sitting at freezing, the precipitation they will see will be in the form of snow. Road temperatures are above freezing, so beyond reduced visibility no impacts are expected currently through the evening hours.
and Saturday High pressure will push east today, allowing winds to turn southeasterly across the western Great Lakes. Some mid and high clouds may stream in at times ahead of an approaching low pressure system. The low pressure system will approach the region later tonight and move through the area during the day on Saturday. Dry air ahead of the cold front will hold off rain chances until later tonight for the far western cwa and the afternoon hours on Saturday for the far eastern cwa. Lows tonight will generally be in the lower to middle 40s with increased clouds and some warm air advection.
High pressure is now well east of our area, centered over Lake Michigan. The RAP is the highest of the three, but regardless the potential still exists for gusts up to 45mph to mix down, so have made no changes to the Wind Advisory at this time. Winds should diminish late this afternoon as mixing decreases, at which point the trough to our west will move into our area along with a weak cold front. Moisture still doesn't look overly impressive as dew points top out in the low 50s tonight, but the front still looks to provide just enough lift to bring chances for showers and perhaps a few rumbles of thunder.