Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
335 AM EDT Wed Jul 24 2019 High pressure will move slowly east today and tonight, eventually centering itself over Ohio on Thursday. The high will continue to influence the local area into the weekend as it shifts to the Mid Atlantic Coast. High pressure over the central plains will build slowly east and reach the area on Thursday. Aloft, a positively tilted upper trough extends across Ohio from Quebec. Cool air aloft associated with the upper trough along with the warm lake will continue to fuel a limited threat for convection today mainly east and south. Upper heights will slowly build this afternoon and tonight as the trough axis shifts east. This should mean dry conditions but warmer through the short term. Temperatures will be warmer than average with highs in the middle to upper 80s.
240 AM EDT Wed Jul 24 2019 High pressure provides cooler and drier weather, gradually warming up by the weekend. Despite low level winds hovering around 15 kts, I believe the combination of cooler air juxtaposed over the very warm rivers will allow for dense fog formation overnight. High pressure takes control of weather conditions through the period. Cooler and drier weather to start the short term period with the area under the influence of upper trough.
Quiet weather but warmer temperatures are expected during the short term period. For today, the typical High Plains lee troughing pattern will prevail. For right now, do have the highest pops west of Highway 83.
High pressure remains in control on Thursday with highs a few degrees warmer into the lower 80s. Quiet and uneventful short term period with high pressure firmly in control across the region. Temps will be similar or a couple degrees warmer today but humidity levels will remain quite comfortable for late July as dewpoints remain in the 50s. The 3 Cs of Clear, calm and comfortable continue tonight with lows once again dropping back into the 50s with high pressure directly overhead.
1128 PM MDT Tue Jul 23 2019 The latest GOES-16 satellite images and RAP analyses indicated a pronounced upper ridge over the Rockies with mostly sunny skies across the CWA.
I could go on and on about anticipating the eventual return of cooler weather as we continue into the last part of the year, but at the risk of offending you warm weather lovers out there, I'll refrain (this time anyway). At the surface early this morning, strong high pressure was centered over the northern Plains into the mid south region. Any time of year, for us anyway, this usually means little in the way of cloud cover and rain chances, and temperatures generally cooler than average.
High pressure is expected to keep central Indiana dry into the weekend.
349 AM CDT Wed Jul 24 2019 As of 08Z Wednesday morning, a very amplified midlevel flow pattern resides across the CONUS with troughing in the east and ridging in the west. The ridge axis is progged to deamplify over the next 18-24 hours as a trough, which is currently coming ashore across the Pacific Northwest, ejects across the Northern Rockies.
142 AM EDT Wed Jul 24 2019 A cold front will continue pushing offshore today.
NW flow aloft will continue despite upper ridge centered over the four corners deamplifying in its northern extent as Pacific energy comes onshore tonight and reaches Alberta by the end of the period. dropping lows into the low-mid 50s. Next wave is poised to come onshore in Pacific northwest going into the weekend which will further dampen upper ridge in the southwest US and transition from NW flow to quasi-zonal flow across the northern tier of the US. VFR conditions to settle in for the entire forecast period as high pressure drifts into the region.
1110 PM CDT Tue Jul 23 2019 Well amplified ridge centered over the western High Plains will continue to flatten tonight into Thursday as a trough attempts to top the ridge near the Canadian and the Montana/North Dakota border. Skies will remain mostly clear into Wednesday, with highs slightly warmer than the last few days in the lower 80s to lower 90s. With dewpoints topping out in the lower 60s will prevent conditions from feeling overly muggy. Thursday will be similar to Wednesday, with highs in the lower 80s to lower 90s, however the breezy southerly winds expand to areas along and east of I-29. A stronger wave topping the ridge will bring a better chance of thunderstorms late Thursday night.
126 AM EDT Wed Jul 24 2019 An upper level trough passing through the region over the next two days will provide partly cloudy skies and isolated afternoon showers each day.
The remainder of the night looks quiet as a high pressure ridge settles overhead. We will like see just a build up of cumulus otherwise with highs topping off in the lower/mid 80s. Wednesday night will see a slight increase in high/mid clouds mainly after midnight in warm air advection ahead of a cold front moving east across the Northern Plains. Warm air advection continues Thursday ahead of the incoming cold front from the Plains.
441 AM EDT Wed Jul 24 2019 Under mostly clear to partly cloudy skies and south to southwest winds of around 10 mph, temperatures are in the lower to mid 80s along the Florida Keys. For the end of this week, a low and mid level ridge along the north coast of the island of Cuba and the Straits of Florida will lift slowly northward into our area. High temperatures will average in the lower 90s with low temperatures in the lower to mid 80s.
421 AM EDT Wed Jul 24 2019 Focus for the short term continues to be a slow moving cold front that will move through the state today. Amplifying trough over the eastern U. Pops quickly taper off from the northwest behind the front as dry, cooler air filter in to the state. Highs today will be unseasonably cool today due to the combination of the cloud cover, precipitation, and cold front. Highs will rebound back into the low to mid 80s for Wednesday afternoon before returning to the 60s again Thursday morning. Temps also start off a bit cooler than we have seen this summer but they warm up though the weekend. Not looking to break any low temp records but definitely cooler.
The pattern aloft featured high pressure centered over the four corners region with the axis of the upper ridge deamplifying and expanding east of the Rockies as an upper low pressure system moves farther inland from the Pacific Northwest.
Upper level trough will stall over the region today as it makes one last attempt to deepen. I would only expect another afternoon of CU development, thanks to a very dry lower level and building high pressure.
257 AM CDT Wed Jul 24 2019 Cooler and drier conditions will persist through the short term as high pressure continues to build south from the Upper Midwest into the Middle Mississippi Valley today, then shifts east into the Ohio Valley on Thursday. The highly amplified upper level pattern, with a ridge in the west and trough in the east, will flatten some through late week. This will allow for the influence of the upper level high to expand eastward and result in a slow moderation in temperatures through late week.
1146 PM MDT Tue Jul 23 2019 A high-amplitude mid-level ridge axis remains over western Colorado. Convection is ongoing this afternoon with showers and storms initiating off the higher terrain and slowly rotating around the high pressure center. A low pressure system currently off the Pacific Northwest Coast is forecast to move east just north of the Canadian/CONUS border. This will force our high pressure southward beginning Wednesday afternoon and allow for moisture to wrap around the northern side of the high pressure. This increased cloud cover and convection will keep temperatures a little cooler than the past several days.
Today should be another quiet day with highs in the 80s as the upper ridge moves out into the Plains. Tonight, the ridge starts to break down as an upper trough moves into southern Saskatchewan. This will help push a trough axis/weak frontal boundary eastward, moving into central ND overnight.
Northeast winds of 5 to 10 MPH will shift to the east later today and tonight as the ridge axis slides southeastward into the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys. Meanwhile, we will remain beneath the eastern flank of a mid level ridge anchored over the Rockies. So despite the drier and cooler airmass in place, high temperatures should still reach 90 in most areas this afternoon.
Temperatures will gradually warm into the weekend when the ridge builds back in. We're still watching for the low chance possibility of high plains convection reaching northwest Oklahoma Thursday night, but the models continue to trend away from this scenario keeping our forecast area dry.
Highly amplified mid level ridge over the Rockies will remain stationary through the period, but will get flattened a bit come Wednesday night, as a mid level trof over the eastern Pacific gets ejected northeast into southwest Canada. Overall not much change to the long range forecast concerning upper trough passage Thursday, with best forcing across North Dakota/Canada. Trailing cold front will stall across the area providing the focus for convection overnight when better forcing aloft is present, however the low level jet still looks to run parallel to the front with the focus area for convergence to the northeast of the CWA.
Increasing southerly low-level winds ahead of the lee trough will promote slightly warmer temperatures today (compared to yesterday) with afternoon readings in the lower 80s.
313 AM EDT Wed Jul 24 2019 High pressure provides cooler and drier weather, gradually warming up by the weekend. Other than that, just expecting less vertical development in the cumulus field outside of this area, and temperatures once again in a comfortable range in this cooler and drier airmass. Expecting area wide lowland 50s again, and even a few 40s in the higher mountain valleys. Cooler and drier weather to start the short term period with the area under the influence of upper trough.
A strong upper ridge will be centered over the Desert Southwest Thu and Fri, while a storm system tracks east across southern Canada.
151 AM EDT Wed Jul 24 2019 A cold front has moved through the forecast area. High pressure behind the front will be centered in the Midwest today.
This will result in high temperatures from the low to upper 80s. Upper-level ridge centered over the desert SW begins to break down tonight, as a strong upper trough moves inland from the Pacific NW.
with pronounced surface ridging extending eastward thru much of the Great Lakes region. Upper level trough axis is now just east of Michigan. with upper level ridging building across the Western Great Lakes. These clouds are associated with low pressure centered over James Bay with a cold front now swinging thru Eastern Ontario. Temps will be a bit warmer today and a bit more mild tonight as weak WAA commences in response to the high pressure center shifting east of Michigan.
1151 PM CDT Tue Jul 23 2019 A high amplitude upper level ridge is located across the Rockies at this time keeping the area under the influence of high pressure both at the surface and aloft. The northwest flow associated with this feature is continuing to pump cooler and drier air into the region. Overnight lows will generally be in the upper 50s to near 60 with highs Wednesday climbing into the low 80s. The upper level ridge over the Rockies will begin to flatten as a short wave trough moves over the ridge across Southern Canada. This will allow a lee trough to form on Thursday which will allow warmer air and Gulf moisture to begin advecting northward by late week.
Temperatures have been running warmer than anticipated the past two days, and hedged toward warmer guidance.
The cold front is expected to move into Oregon during the late evening hours, and continues eastward through the forecast area through Wednesday afternoon. A cold front will move into southeast Oregon and Baker County late this evening, then move through our Idaho zones through Wednesday morning. This will bring cooler and drier air into the region, and no storms are forecast tomorrow or Thursday. Temps will be around 10 degrees cooler tomorrow than today for most folks, then rebound back to readings much like today on Thursday.
This will allow for one more cool day today with highs in the lower 80s.
307 AM EDT Wed Jul 24 2019 Made some adjustments to valley temperatures through the rest of tonight, especially for our typically cooler northeastern valleys, using trends observed in the latest obs data. In the wake of the cold front passage last night, much cooler and drier air continues to spread into eastern KY. Of special note are the lower dewpoints showing up across north central KY. upper trough will result in September like weather for the next few days. 850 mb temperatures of 10C to 12C by late tonight into Wednesday morning will be in the lowest one percentile for this time of year. Strong ridging will remain in place from Thursday night through the upcoming weekend.
The upper pattern is expected to remain quasi-stationary, with an upper anticyclone over the SWRN CONUS/Four Corners, and an upper trough over the ERN CONUS (deterministic GFS/ECMWF/NAM). Nevertheless, the likelihood for additional isolated/scattered convection remains this evening/tonight owing to moisture convergence along the boundary, mainly over the SRN CWA/MSA, before the front moves south of the region and high pressure builds across the region by Wednesday.
1041 PM MDT Tue Jul 23 2019 Shower activity beginning to bubble up across the higher elevations around west and central Wyoming this afternoon. With the midlevel ridge to the south, showers will move to the northeast off the Teton and Absaroka Ranges, and to the east from the Big Horn Range. The bottom edge of this vort cuts down the top of the ridge tomorrow morning, keeping instability in the vicinity. Ridging will begin to build back over the area on Thursday.
Highs will be a few degrees warmer than yesterday due to air mass modification, but will still be a few degrees below average for this time of year.
246 AM CDT Wed Jul 24 2019 Relatively quiet and seasonable mid-summer weather will continue today and tonight as broad surface ridging shifts eastward into Mississippi Valley/Great Lakes. Will likely see some increase in mid/high clouds as well as diurnal cumulus, but with increasing mid-level temps/weak instability and the stronger moisture transport directed west of the area ahead of a stronger upper trough/cold front, expect higher precip chances to remain west of the area.
/issued 920 PM CDT Tue Jul 23 2019/ High pressure continues to build over the Mid-South this evening. Temperatures should trend a couple of degrees warmer.
A large area of high pressure covers much of the central U. This area of high pressure will shift slowly east today.
A cold front over the western portions of the region was moving east with thunderstorms firing along and ahead of the front. Temperatures are forecast to fall into the 60s with 40s to low 50s across the higher elevations.
Most locations will see temperatures in the low 60s with a few isolated instances of lows in the upper 50s.
Anything that forms should be lower end than yesterday, as the air aloft is a bit warmer, and thus, updrafts should be weak. Highs in the lower to mid 80s are forecast, largely persistence + 1 or 2 degrees. Tonight, with mostly clear skies again, lows in the lower 60s are expected. this will flatten the 500 HPA ridge across the western US.
Convection that develops over the High Plains Thursday afternoon and evening will at least spread mid and high clouds across parts of Oklahoma. This will also coincide with slightly warmer daytime highs.
725 AM EDT Wed Jul 24 2019 A cold front has moved through the forecast area. High pressure behind the front will be centered in the Midwest today.
High pressure remains in place through at least Thursday, so another pleasant day will be on tap.
Wednesday is forecast to be a bit cooler with strong gusty winds and very low relative humidity.
A low pressure will pass up through northeastern Washington into Alberta Canada today. The associated cold front to this system moves through the Northern Rockies today cooling temperatures to below normal readings. A low amplitude ridge of high pressure builds back over the Northern Rockies for the latter part of the work week causing a warming trend.
626 AM CDT Wed Jul 24 2019 Relatively quiet and seasonable mid-summer weather will continue today and tonight as broad surface ridging shifts eastward into Mississippi Valley/Great Lakes. Will likely see some increase in mid/high clouds as well as diurnal cumulus, but with increasing mid-level temps/weak instability and the stronger moisture transport directed west of the area ahead of a stronger upper trough/cold front, expect higher precip chances to remain west of the area.
611 AM CDT Wed Jul 24 2019 /12Z TAFs/ North and Central Texas remains under the eastern edge of a mid level ridge centered over the Four-Corners. Northeast winds of 5 to 10 MPH will shift to the east later today and tonight as the ridge axis slides southeastward into the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys. Meanwhile, we will remain beneath the eastern flank of a mid level ridge anchored over the Rockies. So despite the drier and cooler airmass in place, high temperatures should still reach 90 in most areas this afternoon.
641 AM EDT Wed Jul 24 2019 High pressure provides cooler and drier weather, gradually warming up by the weekend. Other than that, just expecting less vertical development in the cumulus field outside of this area, and temperatures once again in a comfortable range in this cooler and drier airmass. Expecting area wide lowland 50s again, and even a few 40s in the higher mountain valleys. Cooler and drier weather to start the short term period with the area under the influence of upper trough.
408 AM MDT Wed Jul 24 2019 A potent & fast-moving short wave disturbance is expected to track across the Central Rockies today, flattening the upper-level ridge and giving way to quasi-zonal flow aloft across southeast WY & the western NE Panhandle.
300 AM PDT Wed Jul 24 2019 Hot temperatures this week with widespread triple digit temperatures at the lower elevations. Clear skies cover the region early this morning as the trough moving through the PacNW has pushed moisture to the south and east of NorCal. Current temperatures range from the lower 50s in the mountain valleys to the 60s and 70s elsewhere.
401 AM MDT Wed Jul 24 2019 High pressure remained centered over western Colorado early this morning. Deep subtropical moisture was moving northward over western Utah between the high and a trough over the Pacific Northwest. The trough is expected to push across the northern Rockies today causing the high to shift southward to northwest New Mexico late in the day. Flow around the high will bring the deep subtropical moisture stream across the forecast area with precipitable water (PW) values rising to near or a little above 1 inch this afternoon. Increased moisture will lead to a commensurate increase in cloud cover which will translate into cooler temperatures today with additional cooling on Thursday.
It is worth noting that the Key West local waterspout index is in the low 20% range, slightly higher than climatology. Given all of these factors, expect a cloud line to form in the early to late afternoon hours, producing at least isolated coverage of showers and thunderstorms, particularly for the Lower and Middle Keys. If cloud line genesis does occur, the threat for waterspouts is moderate today, particularly for the nearshore waters in the Lower and Middle Keys, given the mean low-level wind speed and direction.
I would only expect another afternoon of CU development, thanks to a very dry lower level and building high pressure.
633 AM CDT Wed Jul 24 2019 Clouds are pushing off to the south this am behind a cold front that move through yesterday. /issued 319 AM CDT Wed Jul 24 2019/ Cold front extends across the Gulf of Mexico, with areas of thunderstorms lined up along it from east of Brownsville TX to Tallahassee FL. Most weather models do indicate several weak low pressure areas along this front.
313 AM MDT Wed Jul 24 2019 Latest analysis shows an upper ridge moving over the western part of the forecast area. At the surface, southeasterly winds have developed as between high pressure to the east of the forecast area and a deepening trough of low pressure to the east of the Rockies.
425 AM CDT Wed Jul 24 2019 Cold front has passed and what a difference. Dew pt temps have fallen into the lower 60s north to around 70 south.
With better sfc heating and no sea breeze, max temperatures will be warmest along the coast from Melbourne south to Vero Beach and Stuart in the lower 90s, possibly a few mid 90s but no record highs are expected. Several ripples of vorticity sliding through the base of the mid level trough will support weak waves of low pressure to slide eastward along the boundary, enhancing low level convergence, especially across the northern CWA. Adding to this will be increasing mid level DPVA and upper divergence as the trough axis sags overhead by tonight. With the trough axis sagging across the central peninsula overnight, showers/isolated storms should linger well into the evening, with some nocturnal redevelopment expected.
Weak high pressure aloft will bring drier and warmer weather later today and Thursday.
Despite shifting eastward we will be under the influence of the ridge when it comes to determining convective development over the next couple of days. Highs today and tomorrow will be in the lower 90s with overnight lows in the upper 50s to upper 60s.
Temps struggle into the low 80s by early afternoon before dropping into the upper 60s and lower 70s by early Thursday morning.
NWP guidance from the 24/00Z cycle remains consistent in forecasting a general dissipation of steering currents across the local area from tonight through the remainder of the short term period, as a large weakness in the subtropical ridge develops from the western Gulf of Mexico northeastward into the central Gulf coast states.
539 AM MDT Wed Jul 24 2019 A potent & fast-moving short wave disturbance is expected to track across the Central Rockies today, flattening the upper-level ridge and giving way to quasi-zonal flow aloft across southeast WY & the western NE Panhandle.
Otherwise, high pressure takes firm control of aviation weather today generating light northerly wind while building into Lower Michigan becoming light and variable tonight.
526 AM MDT Wed Jul 24 2019 High pressure remained centered over western Colorado early this morning. Deep subtropical moisture was moving northward over western Utah between the high and a trough over the Pacific Northwest. The trough is expected to push across the northern Rockies today causing the high to shift southward to northwest New Mexico late in the day. Flow around the high will bring the deep subtropical moisture stream across the forecast area with precipitable water (PW) values rising to near or a little above 1 inch this afternoon. Increased moisture will lead to a commensurate increase in cloud cover which will translate into cooler temperatures today with additional cooling on Thursday.
As of 08Z Wednesday morning, a very amplified midlevel flow pattern resides across the CONUS with troughing in the east and ridging in the west. The ridge axis is progged to deamplify over the next 18-24 hours as a trough, which is currently coming ashore across the Pacific Northwest, ejects across the Northern Rockies.
539 AM EDT Wed Jul 24 2019 A cold front has moved through the forecast area. High pressure behind the front will be centered in the Midwest today.
Cooler and drier conditions will persist through the short term as high pressure continues to build south from the Upper Midwest into the Middle Mississippi Valley today, then shifts east into the Ohio Valley on Thursday. The highly amplified upper level pattern, with a ridge in the west and trough in the east, will flatten some through late week. This will allow for the influence of the upper level high to expand eastward and result in a slow moderation in temperatures through late week.