Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
0-3km shear vectors seem to be enough for the moment, this could be a limiting factor moving through the morning for MO/KS as the low level jet weakens toward daybreak, resulting in weakening of the line. For Thursday into the weekend, the region remains influenced by a positively tilted 500mb ridge with weak forcing, at times, for low shower and thunderstorm chances.
310 AM EDT Wed Jul 1 2020 Persistent pattern still in place over the eastern half of the US as the Ohio Valley sits at the broad interface of a closed low over the NE US and ridging over the central US. Latest surface analysis shows the quasi-stationary boundary stretched across central IN/OH with a subtle trough across central KY. Highs today will top out in the mid to upper 80s with oppressive dew points in the low 70s. H5 ridge axis that has been out to our west is forecast to gradually expand eastward into the Ohio Valley.
High pressure building over the area at the end of the week will result in the weather trending drier over the weekend. Meanwhile, there's still a lot of energy out for areas along the Blue Ridge and out into the Piedmont. Temperatures will be very warm and typical of first of July, though could be cooler if more clouds invade the region, especially in the mountains. A broad area of low pressure will push a cold front into South Carolina Wednesday night.
The pattern of high pressure to our east and a trough of low pressure to our west persists.
Continued ridging will provide fair weather across the region today through tomorrow. Upper level ridge will wobble a bit in the short term with some weakness aloft. This weakness in the ridge as a weak piece of jet energy flows into the trough over the NE US.
107 AM EDT Wed Jul 1 2020 Weak high pressure remains northwest of the region into the end of the week as a trough of low pressure develops over the Mid Atlantic. A weak trough is located over the coastal Mid-Atlantic and ern Carolinas late this evening. An upper low remains nearly stationary over New England on Wednesday. The flow aloft becomes northerly Thursday as the upper low settles well off the Mid-Atlantic coast.
Weak high pressure and a drier air mass will extend into the area through the weekend. However, much like last night, disturbances moving through the area within the WNWLY flow aloft and along the SW periphery of the closed low and upper trough over the NE US, could support an isolated shower just about anywhere overnight. Expect very mild temps in the lower to mid 70s. The higher POP (30-40 percent) will be in the east, with lower POP (around 20-25 percent) in the west. The trend of diurnal showers and thunderstorms should be disrupted towards the end of the week thanks to some warmer temperatures moving into the region between 500-700 mb, acting as a cap to developing thunderstorms.
There's quite a bit of uncertainty with this as the higher resolution models have struggled resolving the mesoscale evolution.
Hot and humid conditions to continue today as a ridge remains in place aloft with apparent temperatures of 100 to 105. High pressure at the surface and aloft will remain across the region through tomorrow.
Therefore, any days where the 90+ temperatures occur, combined with the high dew point values, will result in heat indices in the mid 90s. Ensemble 700mb temperatures show the FA being just north of the +10C line, so will have the potential for ridge riders every day.
During the remainder of the short term, a weak ridge will continue to build across the midsection of the country, with upper level trofs remaining over the east and west coast respectively. With the ridge building across the area and the absence of any synoptic scale features, afternoon and evening thunderstorm activity should be less prominent thru the short term period.
306 AM CDT Wed Jul 1 2020 Overnight convection initiated along a surface cold front oriented north to south stretched through eastern Dakotas into Nebraska. There is some question about forcing as the previously mentioned surface front nearly halts its progression further eastward due to the upper level blocking pattern. With the region under a mid to upper level ridge, afternoon temperatures will climb into the upper 80s. This daytime heating will play a great roll with destabilizing the lower atmosphere to break the cap. An amplified upper level ridge will remain in place across the forecast area, further amplifying as we approach the weekend.
Previous Discussion: Above average temperatures are expected over the Ohio River Valley today and tonight as high pressure continues to linger near the Great Lakes. If a pop up shower develops it would likely occur near the ridges of West Virginia due to upsloping; otherwise dry weather will prevail. There will be little change to our weather pattern, warm and dry conditions will persist as high pressure builds to our west. Broad ridging centered over the central CONUS will be the dominant feature this weekend. The region will remain under the influence strong midwestern ridging which will support general VFR with exception for occasional incidents of peri- dawn fog, no appreciable precipitation is forecast through the weekend.
Light easterly winds will generally continue into Thursday as high pressure sits over Great Lakes. The light winds will become more variable later in the week and into the weekend as the high shifts westward and strengthens a bit. This pattern will result in waves remaining on the low end through the week. Medium High pressure to our east and a trough of low pressure to our west will essentially remain the scenario this period. Noting some westward push of drying with precipitable water values (on both the NAM and GFS) with high exerting more influence than any troughing.
Fairly weak flow remains in place the next couple of days with high pressure over the Gulf and a trough digging southward over the Atlantic seaboard.
An upper-level ridge that is currently over southern Texas will expand more to the west. Kendrick Upper ridging will dominate going into the region. Despite ridging there will still be some chances for convection.
110 AM EDT Wed Jul 1 2020 Weak high pressure remains northwest of the region into the end of the week as a trough of low pressure develops over the Mid Atlantic. A weak trough is located over the coastal Mid-Atlantic and ern Carolinas late this evening. An upper low remains nearly stationary over New England on Wednesday. The flow aloft becomes northerly Thursday as the upper low settles well off the Mid-Atlantic coast.
A complex pattern has set up over the northwest US and western Canada as multiple low pressure centers pinwheel around each other, leaving a broad upper level trough west of the Mississippi River. One upper low is over northeast WA and its main effect over the forecast area has been to bring another day of breezy to windy conditions. The current wind advisory in effect for the Kittitas Valley, eastern Columbia River Gorge, north central OR, and the Lower Columbia Basin of OR is set to expire at 10 PM. Showers have been limited, but there will be scattered showers along the WA Cascades after midnight when a weak wave swings around the upper low. The flow will back to the west Wednesday night then southwest on Thursday in response to another upper low pivoting across southwest BC.
as high pressure will basically remain stationary over the Upper Great Lakes. Low temps ranging from the mid and upper 50s across the higher terrain to the low to mid 60s elsewhere. Otherwise, high temps on Wednesday will top out in the mid to upper 70s across the higher terrain, and mainly low 80s for the lower elevations. Some mid 80s are not out of the question for the traditionally warmer spots. Low temps Wednesday night will again generally range from the mid and upper 50s across the higher terrain to the low to mid 60s elsewhere. For this period there will not be much change in the flow aloft, with the ridge axis of an omega block remaining across the Plains and western Great Lakes.
431 AM EDT Wed Jul 1 2020 Upper level low pressure will once again bring a a chance for showers and afternoon thunderstorms today. Upper low finally exits the region Wednesday night. High pressure starts to build into the region Thursday with warming temperatures through the weekend, but still isolated to scattered diurnal showers and thunderstorms possible each day. The upper level low starts sliding SE tonight and eventually out to sea, with high pressure and drier air starting push into the region on Thursday.
220 AM MDT Wed Jul 1 2020 Upper level flow will gradually shift to the southwest today as the broad Pacific trough continues to swing to the northeast. The jet rounding the base of the trough will sit over the far northern tier of the forecast area today. As the aforementioned Pacific trough migrates into Canada Wednesday night and into Thursday, a ridge of high pressure will build over the central CONUS.
A surface boundary will extend from south central Kansas into the Panhandle of Texas today as northeasterly winds advect some higher low level moisture and slightly cooler air into southwest Kansas today.
417 AM EDT Wed Jul 1 2020 Weak low pressure extended from the Mid Atlantic states and Carolinas into the Middle and Lower Mississippi Valley. Mean flow aloft is still northwest between a closed low over New England and upper ridging from the Ohio Valley into the Southern Plains. Stayed close to NBM and bias corrected MAV which were on the warmer range of guidance for maximum temperatures today and lows tonight. The upper troughing over the East Coast makes its way out into the Atlantic during this period as a ridge enters the Midwest from the plains. The warm ridge will impact our weather by allowing quite summery conditions, with widespread highs in the mid to upper 80s, and lower 90s for Southside VA.
335 AM EDT Wed Jul 1 2020 A large closed low remains aloft over the northeast today, with broad troughing extending across much of the eastern seaboard and over Florida.
High pressure is then expected to build across the Great Lakes and Indiana for the rest of the work week and into the Holiday Weekend.
1159 PM CDT Tue Jun 30 2020 Updated aviation section for 06z taf issuance Pattern remains essentially stagnant, with meandering mid/upper low situated over the mid MS River Valley, and very moist and unstable air in place over the lower OH Valley. the flow around the upper low will become more nwly with time, and should support most activity moving sse down the river valley. Overall, severe risk looks to be on the low side, esp compared to the heavy rain potential. Eventually, as we head into Wed night/Thu time frame, upper level ridging should begin to build in from the west. Hot and humid conditions will remain, however, with highs up near 90 and dew points in the lower half of the 70s.
Weak jet streak cutting down the MS river valley will spin up weak upper low over the immediate vicinity and this weak upper low/sharper trough axis will have of instability and vertical motion on the uptick throughout today. and more so on Thu as upper low/trough axis sink into the deep south. This will really reduce our chances for pcpn starting later Thu as our airmass continues to dry, and that trend will continue Fri as well as these features sink down toward the Gulf coast, and an upper high crosses the OH valley. GFS brings complex down from the mid-west, which eventually spins up SFC/upper lows along SFC boundary across the FL panhandle on Sat, and ultimately deepens them further along the Atlantic seaboard on Sun.
638 AM CDT Wed Jul 1 2020 Overnight convection initiated along a surface cold front oriented north to south stretched through eastern Dakotas into Nebraska. There is some question about forcing as the previously mentioned surface front nearly halts its progression further eastward due to the upper level blocking pattern. With the region under a mid to upper level ridge, afternoon temperatures will climb into the upper 80s. This daytime heating will play a great roll with destabilizing the lower atmosphere to break the cap. An amplified upper level ridge will remain in place across the forecast area, further amplifying as we approach the weekend.
401 AM CDT Wed Jul 1 2020 One more challenging day to forecast, before slightly drier and warmer weather takes hold over the region.
Our overall synoptic pattern features a broad upper level low centered over southern BC/PacNW. Along the eastern portion of this low, a negatively tilted trough over MT will continue to rotate northward into Canada. Meanwhile, a positively tilted trough along the western portion of this low will rotate southward along the BC coast.
525 AM MDT Wed Jul 1 2020 Upper level flow will gradually shift to the southwest today as the broad Pacific trough continues to swing to the northeast. The jet rounding the base of the trough will sit over the far northern tier of the forecast area today. As the aforementioned Pacific trough migrates into Canada Wednesday night and into Thursday, a ridge of high pressure will build over the central CONUS.
907 AM EDT Wed Jul 1 2020 Generally uneventful weather will continue through the rest of the week as high pressure remains across the region. Upper-level Omega blocking pattern persisting with a lingering low over New England. Scattered diurnally driven convecton expected this afternoon and early evening across the eastern Lake Ontario region closer to the upper low. The upper low over southern New England will track southeast into the Atlantic Ocean Thursday. A mid-level trough will approach from eastern Canada while northwest flow aloft sets up.
A negatively tilted trough currently sits over the Western Dakotas with southwest flow aloft over the Tri-State area. The cold front has continued to move to the southeast, out of the forecast area. High temperatures today will be a little cooler than yesterday, topping out in the mid-80s to mid-90s.
High pressure continues to build into the southern Rocky Mountains, while a trough settles in near the West Coast.
747 AM EDT Wed Jul 1 2020 Generally uneventful weather will continue through the rest of the week as high pressure remains across the region. Upper-level Omega blocking pattern persisting with a lingering low over New England. Scattered diurnally driven convecton expected this afternoon and early evening across the eastern Lake Ontario region closer to the upper low. The upper low over southern New England will track southeast into the Atlantic Ocean Thursday. A mid-level trough will approach from eastern Canada while northwest flow aloft sets up.
Today Through Thursday Night H500 ridging will be expanding northward from the Southern Plains toward the Great Lakes region and intensifying somewhat today and tomorrow. The center of the high will likely reside over eastern Oklahoma, which will keep much of the state dry over the next 24 hours at least. With the high expanding northward and persistent low pressure across the NE US, H500 flow across eastern Arkansas and adjacent areas across the MS River will be sharply out of the north. With the ridge expanding, sfc temperatures will increase across the state the next couple of days with Thursday potentially being the hottest day of the year in some locations.
/issued 351 AM CDT Wed Jul 1 2020/ An upper level trough is over the northwestern part of the country with westerly flow over West Texas and southeast New Mexico. Temperatures will be slightly cooler on Thursday with highs mostly in the 90s and storms will be possible areawide.
/issued 353 AM CDT Wed Jul 1 2020/ SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday): With mid level and surface ridging building over Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley from the east, temperatures will remain seasonally hot and subsidence will inhibit any mentionable rain chances through the short term period.
As of 3am, there is ongoing convection mainly along the Highway 81 corridor and moving eastward into eastern Nebraska. Most of the high or higher resolution guidance keep the area dry. The upper ridge will begin to broaden into the weekend and persist. On Thursday night a weak wave moves northeast and helps to fire convection across the High Plains. As the ridge builds in, cannot rule out off and on showers and thunderstorms, but do think for most it will be a dry week. Tonight, as winds become easterly, upslope flow and the low level moisture may cause stratus to develop.
633 AM CDT Wed Jul 1 2020 Currently, a cold front has moved east to western Minnesota and the convection has moved east of the region. A large upper low over the northwest will drift north today and tonight. The low level moisture from recent rains will produce some fog across teh north and east this morning. Tonight, an approaching trough across Montana will bring milder air into the region under partly cloudy skies.
650 AM EDT Wed Jul 1 2020 Persistent pattern still in place over the eastern half of the US as the Ohio Valley sits at the broad interface of a closed low over the NE US and ridging over the central US. Latest surface analysis shows the quasi-stationary boundary stretched across central IN/OH with a subtle trough across central KY. Highs today will top out in the mid to upper 80s with oppressive dew points in the low 70s. H5 ridge axis that has been out to our west is forecast to gradually expand eastward into the Ohio Valley.
633 AM CDT Wed Jul 1 2020 One more challenging day to forecast, before slightly drier and warmer weather takes hold over the region.
Cyclonic flow aloft will continue throughout the day and expect scattered showers/storms will develop north of I-40 later this afternoon as the cold front to the north slides southwards. WIth the highly saturated atmosphere, lapse rates will be near moist adiabatic. The front will move through the forecast area this evening into the overnight period as the upper level trough exits to the southeast. Highs today will be a bit cooler than climatological normals with the increased cloud cover and precipitation chances today.
The subtropical ridge axis is shifting west of the ArkLaMiss region, and this will allow disturbed northerly flow to increase the potential for MCS activity, especially over northern and eastern portions of the forecast area.
In a weak cold air advection regime, temperatures will be a touch cooler today - in the mid to upper 80s. With that, temperatures will again nudge upwards with highs into the lower 90s.
Latest RAP guidance was a tad cooler over my northwest this aftn and latest short term update reflects that thinking. Therefore, any days where the 90+ temperatures occur, combined with the high dew point values, will result in heat indices in the mid 90s. Ensemble 700mb temperatures show the FA being just north of the +10C line, so will have the potential for ridge riders every day.
/issued 502 AM CDT Wed Jul 1 2020/ (Today and Tonight) Hot and humid conditions will continue again today, as the upper ridge dominates. The high dewpoints, combined with afternoon temperatures between 96 and 102, will result in heat index values between 103 and 109 degrees.
While the ridge builds, near daily chances for rain and storms will exist, as the southwest flow continues to send impulses through the flow. While daily chances for storms seem less than exciting, the overall building ridge pattern will keep chances for any widespread severe activity low for now.
An upper level trough covering much of the West Coast, which is anchored by an upper low over Washington state, will retrograde over California today and Thursday.
651 AM EDT Wed Jul 1 2020 Upper level low pressure will once again bring a a chance for showers and afternoon thunderstorms today. Upper low finally exits the region Wednesday night. High pressure starts to build into the region Thursday with warming temperatures through the weekend, but still isolated to scattered diurnal showers and thunderstorms possible each day. The upper level low starts sliding SE tonight and eventually out to sea, with high pressure and drier air starting push into the region on Thursday.
Southwesterly flow in place today will return warmer air to the region, with temps rising into the 80s and 90s across the lower elevations.
Upper level pattern continues to have the area sandwiched between eastern Pacific ridging and broad troughing across the Intermountain West. Temperatures in areas influenced by the Delta Breeze will remain a little lower than yesterday, while the rest of the area will be a little warmer. Valley highs in the low to mid 90s are about normal for this time of year.
Thursday will be dry for most of the area with warmer high temps.
645 AM EDT Wed Jul 1 2020 Weak low pressure extended from the Mid Atlantic states and Carolinas into the Middle and Lower Mississippi Valley. Mean flow aloft is still northwest between a closed low over New England and upper ridging from the Ohio Valley into the Southern Plains. Stayed close to NBM and bias corrected MAV which were on the warmer range of guidance for maximum temperatures today and lows tonight. The upper troughing over the East Coast makes its way out into the Atlantic during this period as a ridge enters the Midwest from the plains. The warm ridge will impact our weather by allowing quite summery conditions, with widespread highs in the mid to upper 80s, and lower 90s for Southside VA.
304 AM MDT Wed Jul 1 2020 An upper low will drift slowly north across Alberta while a second upper low develops over British Columbia and drops an upper trough into the Pacific NW the next few days. Meanwhile, flow aloft will from the SW over Montana while an upper ridge builds into the central US.
Rain chances continue to increase into Thursday as an northeast to southwest upper trough develops across the southeast states. The combination of the upper trough, plenty of deep layer moisture with precipitable water values climbing to 2 to 2. Highs today will be in the low to mid 90s with heat index values topping out in the 100 to 106 range.
Some convection may develop along the Gulf Sea Breeze front and move generally eastward with the synoptic flow around the ridge axis.
436 AM CDT Wed Jul 1 2020 A large upper low over the northwest will drift north today and tonight. The low level moisture from recent rains will produce some fog across teh north and east this morning. Tonight, an approaching trough across Montana will bring milder air into the region under partly cloudy skies.
This convection appears to be in response to a mid level impulse rounding the base of the Northern Rockies closed low circulation and low level warm air advection, along with left exit region jet dynamics. Currently, a cold front has moved east to western Minnesota and the convection has moved east of the region. A large upper low over the northwest will drift north today and tonight. The low level moisture from recent rains will produce some fog across teh north and east this morning. Tonight, an approaching trough across Montana will bring milder air into the region under partly cloudy skies.
502 AM CDT Wed Jul 1 2020 (Today and Tonight) Hot and humid conditions will continue again today, as the upper ridge dominates. The high dewpoints, combined with afternoon temperatures between 96 and 102, will result in heat index values between 103 and 109 degrees.
SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday Night): High pressure dominates as the 500mb ridge strengthens across the central CONUS with a Pacific NW trough spinning away over WA and a New England trough working offshore. At the surface, low pressure across the Plains and Southeast keep most of any rain chances well out of reach, but tighten up the pressure gradient enough to keep breezy SE to SSE winds along the lower valley and lower Texas coast.
Tomorrow is then expected to be a mostly dry day as ridging builds in aloft, although hi-res guidance suggests a stray shower or two may be possible over south-central KY where some instability and lingering moisture will exist. Upper ridge building east from the Plains will break over lingering Gulf Coast trofiness.