Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Additional Thunderstorms are currently ongoing over Northwest Kansas and into Central Nebraska near the left exit region of the low level jet. Increasing 0-3 km theta-e differences near 35 K over the southern half of the state is a strong signal for cold pool development and is in a region of the highest DCAPE values over 1000 J/KG.
430 AM EDT WED JUL 13 2016 Southwesterly flow over the Ohio Valley will bring increasing moisture until a cold front crosses Thursday night.
A warming trend is expected over the next couple of days as an upper level ridge builds in from the Desert Southwest.
320 AM CDT WED JUL 13 2016 We continue to be under the control of a strong elongated high pressure system which extends from Texas to California.
At the surface, leeside troughing remains the main weather feature, though the associated low pressure center is expected to move eastward later on today and tonight. As the trough axis sharpens across the Panhandles, compressional heating will once again allow temperatures to climb steadily above guidance in the western half of the Panhandles.
311 AM CDT MON JUL 18 2016 An upper level ridge of high pressure centered over the Mid South will bring several days of oppressive heat and humidity which will lead to dangerous heat index values.
A strong mid/upper level ridge will continue to be centered over the southern plains today and extend into our region. With increasing upper height's and warmer H925/H850 temperatures on Tuesday, afternoon highs will be a little hotter across much of the area.
In general, deep layer ridging will prevail across the Tri-State region this afternoon. East/southeast steering flow along the southern periphery of low-level ridging will continue to favor an active seabreeze circulation, with somewhat widespread convection. The former of the two could spread some drier mid- level air and subsidence over the general area where the eastern Big Bend seabreeze gets going, while the latter may result in some increased storms across SE AL and SW GA (either directly from the trough or from outflow from storms just north of the region).
Current surface analysis indicates that the cold frontal boundary is located across northern Illinois. Any remaining showers will end from north to south throughout the day as high pressure, and drier air, begin working its way into the region. All of them depict a large ridge dominating the southern 2/3rds of the country with Kentucky on the northeast fringe.
A large-scale subtropical ridge has established well north of the Florida Keys, placing the service area within the northern flank of the trade-wind belt. Currently, air temperatures in most Keys island communities are in the lower or mid 80s, with dewpoint temperatures in the mid 70s.
416 AM CDT MON JUL 18 2016 High pressure to the west of Middle Tennessee will keep areas west of the I-65 corridor dry today while an isolated thunderstorm may develop over the southeast portions of the area this afternoon.
449 AM EDT MON JUL 18 2016 Showers and thunderstorms, some strong, are expected today ahead of a cold front. High pressure brings mainly dry weather from Tuesday on, with hot weather returning by the end of the week. Still expect that we will see sufficient recovery this afternoon for at least scattered development ahead of the advancing cold front, although the uncertainty on coverage led to the removal of likely PoPs after 18Z. Activity will quiet down this evening as instability wanes and the cold front sinks across the forecast area.
Cooler than normal temperatures along with overnight clouds and patchy fog are expected to persist through Tuesday.
327 AM EDT MON JUL 18 2016 High pressure ridging into the forecast area from the Atlantic today will diminish Tuesday ahead of a weakening cold front.
656 AM EDT MON JUL 18 2016 The main dewpoint or theta e gradient will pass through all of southeastern Michigan at the start of period, leaving only the main cold front to settle into the cwa later tonight. The drying of the low levels is expected to yield both a persistent west northwest wind today as well as high mixing heights.
416 AM CDT MON JUL 18 2016 (Today and Tonight) Hot and dry again as upper ridging continues. Highs are expected in the upper 90s to 100, with lows in the lower to mid 70s.
An upper low just off the coast helped to touch off scattered showers and thunderstorms today.
a ridge of high pressure is expected to become the dominate feature over the Southern Plains. hot temperatures are forecast for the CWA with each day through the week being near/a degree warmer compared to the day before. mainly over the higher terrain locations of Southeast Oklahoma into Northwest Arkansas.
623 AM EDT MON JUL 18 2016 Showers and thunderstorms, some strong, are expected today ahead of a cold front. High pressure brings mainly dry weather from Tuesday on, with hot weather returning by the end of the week. Still expect that we will see sufficient recovery this afternoon for at least scattered development ahead of the advancing cold front, although the uncertainty on coverage led to the removal of likely PoPs after 18Z. Activity will quiet down this evening as instability wanes and the cold front sinks across the forecast area.
633 AM EDT MON JUL 18 2016 A cold front will gradually approach from the west today and will push offshore by late tonight.
517 AM EDT MON JUL 18 2016 An upper level disturbance and cold front will bring scattered showers and a few gusty thunderstorms on Monday.
The coastal waters is where the radar action is this morning as a north and south axis of showers was occurring between the lower Atchafalaya River and High island from near shore out to 175 nm. HRRR/GFS/NAM models look to be correctly showing a mid level disturbance rotating around the southern fringes of the upper level dome of high pressure stretching west to east across Kansas.
Cold front crosses Tuesday. Upper level high pressure dominates for the remainder of work week. Upper level flow becomes increasingly divergent while veering from west to west northwest, ahead of a cold front that will be approaching from the northwest near the end of the near term period. a complex likely to form over the lower midwest overnight could bring at least scattered convection into the western flank of the forecast area toward dawn Monday. After cold frontal passage Monday night.
Southwest flow aloft will continue over the area through the period as an upper low resides near the Pacific Northwest coast. Those areas will be close enough to the upper low as several short waves rotate around the periphery of the low, resulting in isolated mainly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. Breezy southwest winds will develop each afternoon in Southeast Oregon and the higher terrain of Southwest Idaho and diminish each evening, otherwise winds will be light.
A LLJ in conjunction with a disturbance tracking east around the building central Plains ridge will produce more thunderstorms along that boundary tonight.
Td's around 70f today with afternoon highs around 90 as 30c at 850mb moves into southwest Nebraska late this afternoon as a warm front lifts northeast across western Nebraska. Models in good agreement with 500 mb heights of 597/599 dam ridge of high pressure across the south central CONUS. A subtle trough to push lift across the NW CWA in the evening hours and could be enough to break the strong cap. Wed and Thurs the ridge rebuilds quickly in the wave of the trough, then shows little movement. Models continue to show good continuity with the thermal ridge and with the lack of wetting rain over the weekend have decided to push temps up with guidance.
401 AM CDT MON JUL 18 2016 Water vapor imagery show upper low spinning over pac NW with ridge of high pressure over souther Plains. Expect more of the same tomorrow as ridge continues to strengthen over the area.
A strong Ridge of High pressure is expected to build across the region during mid week. Surface analysis early this afternoon shows low pressure in association with a short wave over Wisconsin. High pressure was found over West Virginia and this was resulting in a warm and humid southerly flow of air flowing into Central Indiana. will trend cooler. In the lower levels a weak frontal boundary also is expected to sag into and linger in the area into Tuesday.
out of this dome a weak ridge runs northward into Alberta and then tilts back west into northern British Columbia. To the west a large trough lies off the coast of the Pacific Northwest with a jet running up and around the heat dome and through northern Montana.
525 AM EDT MON JUL 18 2016 High pressure ridging into the forecast area from the Atlantic today will diminish Tuesday ahead of a weakening cold front.
145 AM EDT MON JUL 18 2016 A warm front over Indiana will move through northern Ohio and northwest Pennsylvania tonight. A cold front over the western Great Lakes will move across the region on Monday.
Further to the west, convergence on the terminus of the low level jet was leading to elevated convection. Nocturnal convection should fire with the wave across the Plains, and ride the warm front into the CWA late in the period.
Large upper high of 598 dm will be centered over the Oklahoma/Arkansas area, which will initially help steer any nocturnal convection southeast into central Illinois. As the week progresses, the ridge axis will build northward, taking the MCS track with it.
The highest temperatures will occur mainly in western Oklahoma and western north Texas while the highest heat indices may occur east of I-35 over the next several days.
High pressure then builds back into the region later today which will take us into the middle of the week. Strong ridge will set up and result in 90 degree temperatures for a couple days. Mid level heights will stall for a period today as the strong ridge across the Central Plains starts impacting the region and preventing any further height falls. This all changes mid week when the upper level ridge amplifies and folds over into the region.
For today, upper level high pressure builds right on top of western Kansas with little or no chances for rainfall.
North Dakota will remain on the northern periphery of a central plains ridge this week.
645 AM EDT MON JUL 18 2016 Showers and thunderstorms, some strong, are expected today ahead of a cold front. High pressure brings mainly dry weather from Tuesday on, with hot weather returning by the end of the week. Still expect that we will see sufficient recovery this afternoon for at least scattered development ahead of the advancing cold front, although the uncertainty on coverage led to the removal of likely PoPs after 18Z. Activity will quiet down this evening as instability wanes and the cold front sinks across the forecast area.
1124 PM MDT SUN JUL 17 2016 Weak cold front is just about through the forecast area at midday and will continue moving slowly south. North-northeast winds behind front will keep a flow of slightly cooler but continued moist air across the region. Monday afternoon, thunderstorms are expected to redevelop over the NW portion of the CWA along the front and ahead of a short wave trough rotating around the western periphery of the upper high. This will be highly dependent on how far warm front is by Monday afternoon.
placed the higher pops in our western CWA. High Pressure centered over the High Plains will continue to drive monsoonal moisture northward across the forecast area through the end of the week. The ridge starts shifting west across New Mexico and into the Four Corners region by the weekend cutting off the deeper tap of moisture. Both the GFS and ECMWF advertising a strengthening ridge over the Great Basin, basically shutting down the round of monsoonal moisture. Max temps will be cooler throughout the week with higher humidity values and more cloud cover in place. KASE and KTEX should have the highest probability of this occurring but all sites can not be ruled out.
559 AM EDT MON JUL 18 2016 A strong cold front will approach from the northwest today and will cross the area tonight. High pressure will follow with a drier and cooler air mass Tuesday.
The warm front boundary that was previous draped across central Kansas has continued to lift north into Nebraska throughout the overnight hours.
335 AM PDT MON JUL 18 2016 Below average temperatures continue into mid-week as a low pressure system moves across the Pacific Northwest. Temperatures will remain below average across interior NorCal through much of the week as a trough remains in place along the West Coast. Breezy to windy conditions can also be expected at times the next several days, especially across the higher terrain in the afternoons.
439 AM CDT MON JUL 18 2016 Latest surface analysis continue to show a broad ridge over northeast Gulf of Mexico and southeast CONUS and still a 2mb change was noted from upper Texas coast to Florida panhandle. 18 The upper level pattern will remain steady through Tuesday with some amplification of the ridge axis over the upper plains. Broad rotation around the upper high will tap the dry air over the west Atlantic and Florida Peninsula.
Weak H5 trough axis has shifted west of the CWA today with deeper tropical moisture gradually spreading west across the region.
Based on boundary layer and 2 meter temperatures, maybe a degree warmer most areas today, but then a degree or two cooler on Tuesday given more clouds.
Several consecutive runs of the HRRR have shown this activity reaching east central KS before it weakens as the low level jet decreases. Soundings show about 1500-2000 j/kg of mucape above drier air in the lower levels and a weak nocturnal inversion.
Despite presence of upper ridge, there is no temperature inversion aloft to cap diurnal convection, and expect isolated to scattered thunderstorms again today.
144 AM EDT MON JUL 18 2016 An upper level disturbance and cold front will bring scattered showers and a few gusty thunderstorms on Monday.
However the high resolution guidance is suggesting that the cap will hold. With the main ridge axis remaining to the east of the area, the western zones will still be under some what southwesterly flow.
High pressure is in the process of strengthening to our east as the center of the high begins to shift into the central plains. The center of the high will be in the central plains on Tuesday with somewhat stronger easterly flow over our area. Some of the high-res guidance is picking up on this and showing a slightly higher coverage of shower and storm activity across the southeastern CWA with some isolated activity closer to the I-35 corridor.
then building in of large ridge and hot temperatures with excessive heat are all concerns in the short term. Both h7/h85 moisture was pooled over the area and progged to keep this high moisture in the area today and parts of the area tonight.
Cooler than normal temperatures along with overnight clouds and patchy fog are expected to persist through Tuesday. Much warmer temperatures are possible by the upcoming weekend. Little change is expected in our weather over the next couple of days as an upper trough remains in place along the West Coast. A deep marine layer and moderate onshore flow will continue to result in widespread night and morning low clouds, and temperatures will remain cooler than normal.
A large upper ridge dominates the weather pattern this week with Alabama remaining on the eastern periphery of the ridge which will allow for convective development each day in the afternoons. No organized convection appears to develop during this time, however, it might be possible to see a MCS at some point as pockets of weak lift rotate around the ridge. The upper ridge will bring above normal daytime readings through the week with highs in the middle to upper 90s.
240 AM CDT MON JUL 18 2016 A ridge is currently building across the Southeast and into the plains. Meanwhile, the polar jet and mean troughing remains well to the north close to the Great Lakes and Pacific Northwest regions.
1232 AM CDT MON JUL 18 2016 Quiet weather through Monday evening with no precipitation expected in the wake of a cold front that will continue to push through the region this weekend. At the surface a cold front was draped across the region, with northwest flow behind the front and southwest flow ahead of the front. Winds will decrease around sunset as high pressure builds across the region. This will lead to sunny skies with light winds on Monday, and high temps in the lower 80s.
257 AM PDT MON JUL 18 2016 High pressure aloft will strengthen over the central and southern plains early this week.
Storms will follow the a short wave trough aloft moving up the back side of the upper ridge that will swing into position across the northern plains as it extends north of the upper high pressure center in place over the central plains region.
437 AM CDT MON JUL 18 2016 Ridge over the Southern Plains getting stronger and heights have risen over SETX in the last 24 hours.
However, the GFS actually is showing a decrease in deep layer moisture through the day as band of subsidence occurs between mid to upper level anticyclone centered over the lower Mississippi Valley and TUTT axis to our southeast. Will keep mention of thunder along the coast and over the Atlantic, but think that this low chance will mainly be over interior and western sections of the peninsula. Ridge axis of high pressure over the Atlantic will remain near to north of the area going into mid week with a deeper easterly flow remaining across the region.
258 AM EDT MON JUL 18 2016 A strong cold front will approach from the northwest today and will cross the area tonight. High pressure will follow with a drier and cooler air mass Tuesday.
For Monday, the upper ridge intensifies over Arkansas area and this may limit thunderstorms over the northern forecast area. High pressure will build aloft across the central part of the country through mid-week before retreating westward for the end of the week and into the weekend as a trough extends across the east coast and then into the Western Atlantic. At the surface, the Atlantic ridge axis remains generally north of the forecast area through the week with a weaker pressure pattern in place for the weekend.
354 AM EDT MON JUL 18 2016 A cold front will gradually approach from the west today and will push offshore by late tonight.
326 AM CDT MON JUL 18 2016 Upper level high pressure will begin to strengthen and build over the central United States. Hot and humid conditions can therefore be expected again today with highs in the lower to middle 90s. Low temperatures tonight should be very similar to those of early this morning with lows in the lower to middle 70s.
The upper low near New Orleans will sink southward into the GOMEX, meanwhile upper level ridging will hold just off east coast.
/issued 311 AM CDT MON JUL 18 2016/ An upper level ridge of high pressure centered over the Mid South will bring several days of oppressive heat and humidity which will lead to dangerous heat index values.
A broad area of relatively weak high pressure at middle and upper levels will begin to consolidate and intensify over Arkansas tomorrow. Thus, high temperatures today and tomorrow over the region are going to average in the upper 90s, 1-2 degrees cooler than they have for the last several days with mid 90s in the Hill Country and lower 100s in the Rio Grande Plains. Deeper moisture and southerly flow with a more intense and consolidated ridge over Arkansas should encourage a more coherent sea breeze further west to allow for a greater coverage of showers and thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon in the Coastal Plains.
The high pressure ridge over the Southeast will retrograde today, which will allow for upstream convectively-induced vorticies to track into our area.
/issued 201 PM CDT SUN JUL 17 2016/ Deep easterly flow aloft has taken control over the region, and will persist this week as the Subtropical Ridge center edges slightly farther north over the southern U. This flow regime will shunt the low level thermal ridge and mid level thetae axis westward, which portends little chance of rain and not quite as hot temperatures. A subtle mid level feature or two may still impinge upon the region during the next 7 days, but any resulting rain chances will likely be slight, and over the higher terrain since a low level focus will be hard to come by over the plains. Thereafter, the upper ridge will strengthen and expand somewhat which will likely lead to more locations rising to 100 degrees.
A cold front was moving through the Arrowhead and far northwest Wisconsin this afternoon and should clear our eastern CWA this evening. More showers and storms were occurring ahead of a secondary cold front and were entering the Far northwest through north central Minnesota. High pressure will then build into the Northland tonight into Monday and provide dry conditions later tonight through Monday.
Today Through Tuesday Night Upper level high pressure will continue to build over the region through the short term period. but maybe a deg or two warmer. Highs will range from the upper 80s to low 90s in the higher terrain.
238 AM EDT MON JUL 18 2016 Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb trough in the western U. and a broad trough over central Canada into the Great Lakes and a broad 500 mb ridge over the southern U. The ridge builds into the northern plains and Canadian prairies this forecast period with a trough digging into the ern U. Nam does show some qpf moving across the far western cwa late tonight, but it is the only model to do so and is trying to break out pcpn in a ridge.
Satellite imagery shows broad southwest flow over the region east of a West Coast trough.
339 AM CDT MON JUL 18 2016 Latest water vapor satellite imagery indicating upper level trough over the Great Lakes Region and upper level ridge over the eastern Rocky Mountains. Latest 08z surface analysis indicates weak cold front extending from near Lake Superior into central Iowa and high pressure over southwest Minnesota and Dakotas. 00z GFS/NAM/ECMWF show subtle differences on strength and placement of moisture transport/convergence in association with weak impulse overtopping upper level ridge.
An area of high pressure will drift across North Dakota tonight through Monday. This high pressure will bring dry and less humid conditions on Monday.
Isolated showers and thunderstorms will develop along the lower Texas coast and move inland Monday morning into the afternoon hours. /issued 259 PM CDT SUN JUL 17 2016/ SHORT TERM (Tonight through Monday Night): Latest water-vapor channel satellite imagery indicates that axis of weak, inverted upper-level trough is currently over the western CWA as it continues to translate westward. For tonight, light ESE flow at 500-mb continues as main upper high center begins migrating eastward from NM toward OK/KS. Highest heat indices look to be in the Lower-Mid RGV and in the 104-109F range, so still rather hot.
High pressure will build over the area through the period and no rain is expected. This is consistent with a large scale upper level ridge that will continue to build over the region through the middle of this week. Model guidance is consistent in increasing the depth of the troposphere as subsidence and strong daily heating results in a build up of heat under this dome of high pressure aloft.
409 AM EDT MON JUL 18 2016 High pressure ridging into the forecast area from the Atlantic today will diminish Tuesday ahead of a weakening cold front.
Warm front is expected to slowly lift north throughout the day today.
An upper level low will bring another round of showers and thunderstorms today, especially in the Cascades.
202 AM MDT MON JUL 18 2016 Weak cold front is just about through the forecast area at midday and will continue moving slowly south. North-northeast winds behind front will keep a flow of slightly cooler but continued moist air across the region. Monday afternoon, thunderstorms are expected to redevelop over the NW portion of the CWA along the front and ahead of a short wave trough rotating around the western periphery of the upper high.