Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
31/00Z TAF CYCLE Cyclonic flow arnd upper low over central MO wl cont to bring low clouds acrs mainly the NRN half of AR thru the PD.
There is some guidance that suggests more convective development when the synoptic cold front eventually moves through the region tonight, though it is unclear how the wake low will affect this future potential.
1103 PM EDT Thu Mar 30 2017 Warm front pushing northeast across Central Pennsylvania bringing scattered showers and some isolated thunderstorms this evening and overnight. The associated low pressure system will slide east across the Mid-Atlantic Friday and Friday night bringing more rain to the area.
A potent upper trough continues to gradually shift eastward across the Central and Southern Plains regions. Further south and east, broad upper ridging continues to slowly build in across the Gulf of Mexico and southeast states. Along the eastern periphery of this ridge, a weak upper low is meandering across the far western Atlantic and Bahamas. This is tied to a large ribbon of dry air from 850-500mb along the western edge of the upper trough.
/issued 737 AM EDT THU MAY 26 2016/ High pressure over the region, along with a drier air mass, will keep the weather quiet, with VFR conditions.
An upper level trough will continue to dig further into British Columbia today where it will remain anchored for much of the weekend.
weak ridging aloft and at the surface should keep most of the North Country dry today. Warm air advection on Friday behind warm front which continues to move northward.
Upper level low pressure across the Dakotas and MT/WY will be the focus for additional shower and thunderstorm development later this afternoon. CAM solutions suggest activity will begin across the western/central Dakotas where steeper lapse rates exist closer to the upper low center. A wave of low pressure eventually rides northward along this frontal boundary on Friday, bringing a good chance for rainfall.
Position of the ridge axis to our north will maintain a persistent easterly breeze. Ridge axis parked north of the area will maintain a gentle to moderate E/NE breeze.
Only caveat is that the morning sounding had pretty dry air aloft from ridging overhead so mostly likely our south/southeast areas may remain dry.
Northwesterly flow aloft persists over Northern California today, with high pressure over the eastern Pacific and an upper trough centered near the Four Corners region. A warming trend begins in earnest today as the eastern Pacific ridge strengthens. These highs are 4 to 8 degrees warmer than normal. An upper trough will pass through the Pacific Northwest Friday, and form a weak upper low over central and southern California over the weekend.
Then winds will come around to the west behind a Pacific cold front late this evening/early Friday morning. /Issued 507 AM CDT THU MAY 26 2016/ For today and tonight, the upper level low pressure system currently over central Arizona will head ene into nrn NM and srn CO by late this afternoon, then towards ern CO and wrn KS by 12Z Friday. As this occurs, the sfc pressure gradient will tighten today in advance of a cold front. For Friday and Friday night, the upper level low pressure system is progged to track newd across KS and NE. The corresponding sfc cold front will move sewd thru the fcst area durg the daylight hours.
We still expect cumulus to develop into showers and thunderstorms over the higher terrain of southwest Idaho from late morning through this evening, but they will not be strong. Elongated trough still over the region will continue its journey eastward today. Will see a drying trend as the trough departs, with isolated to scattered showers this afternoon over the high terrain of Southwest Idaho (Southeast Oregon will be dry). Upper level flow will turn northwest late Thursday, ahead of an incoming upper level trough which will sweep through the region Thursday night and Friday. Associated cold front will be mainly dry, so main impact will be limited to a 5-10 degree temperature drop and increased winds on its backside region-wide.
A low pressure system moving north of the area will bring cooler temperatures today, as well as a slight chance of thunderstorms across the White Mountains.
Several of the high res CAMS show this mornings storms diminishing with lower coverage this afternoon and in some models no additional development. Areas of fog will likely linger near Lake Superior, as well as cooler temperatures. The entire long range period will be dominated by a long wave trough.
The big picture still has a southeast ConUS upper ridge in place, and a broad western ConUS upper trough. We are on the periphery of the ridge's influence. High temperatures each day in the extended are expected to be in the low to mid 80s, with overnight lows in the low to mid 60s.
Temperatures will be a few degrees above normal with afternoon highs in the lower to mid 80s and lows in the 60s on tap. Lowered temperatures slightly but still in the lower to middle 80s. but should see enough breaks in the sunshine to see temperatures at least as warm as 00z MOS if not warmer with highs in the lower to mid 80s looking good. as the Southwestern upper low opens up and gets shunted north by a strong Eastern ridge but another large scale trough takes over across California. The result will be the same with a series of weak upperwaves slingshotted northeast from the base of the trough to the OhioValley and Great Lakes. the Bermuda High keepsthe low level flow southerly ahead of a stalled Plains front.
740 AM EDT THU MAY 26 2016 A broad upper ridge should persist over the southeast during the short term. with ridging dominating the remainder of the area. Upper low and surface reflection really do not make it further west than the Carolina/ Georgia coast or maybe the Carolina low-country.
Upper air analysis last evening showed a trough from the Great Basin to southern CA with west-southwesterly flow over Texas. During this period the upper level trough will move from the southwest into the central plains with the trough axis moving into central Texas by the end of the period. The low level flow will continue to be from the southeast today and tonight.
The precip is all moving north to south as our region is still on the backside of the upper-level low pressure system over far eastern MT. The low will continue to move into the Dakotas today, but enough moisture and instability remains for scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop later this aftn. A moist and somewhat unstable NW flow aloft continues across the region today with upper level low centered over eastern MT, drifting east tonight.
Areas of fog will likely linger near Lake Superior, as well as cooler temperatures. The entire long range period will be dominated by a long wave trough.
A deep upper trof over the southwest US maintains a down stream ridge. On the northern periphery of the ridge axis. The Gulf high level ridge remains in an amplified state over the local area as deep upper trof ejects across the four corners of the desert southwest. Despite the upper ridge in place.
931 AM CDT THU MAY 26 2016 Only some patchy fog continues to linger over northern portions of the area, though the low cloud cover has been a bit reluctant to lift and dissipate. Along and north of the trough light showers continued. Just behind the trough low stratus and fog have developed. As the upper level low begins pushing eastward today additional showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop across western North Dakota and spread eastward.
(1 - Weak convergence boundary from Ripley south to Kosciusko in Mississippi 2 - Convective activity developing along an outlflow boundary from showers and thunderstorm activity developing over eastern Missouri) In between, over Northern Alabama and Southern Middle Tennessee, mesoscale models are similar keeping fairly strong subsidence in place in the lower levels of the atmosphere until later this afternoon.
Bermuda high pressure will extend over the area through Friday.
This Afternoon & Tonight: During the night a deep upper-deck trof was positioned over AZ. The upper trof is still expected to push slowly E across the Srn Rockies today & is still expected to experience cyclogenesis as it begins to lift very slowly NE from Nrn NM late tonight, with the upper cyclone reaching the CO/KS border early Fri Morning.
Upper high was centered over Alabama which will keep convection on the periphery states this afternoon. High pressure remains in control with VFR conditions expected for most of the next 24 hours. The upper levels will be dominated by a broad southwest to northeast flow regime, with a building upper ridge from the eastern Gulf coast to the eastern Great Lakes. And there's been a couple lately that have tried, but eventually succumbed to the subsidence of the upper level ridge.
15Z surface analysis places a quasi-stationary boundary from northern Missouri back through eastern Kansas with both a cold front and dry line located over the Texas/Oklahoma panhandle and New Mexico. A combination of these two features is resulting in a deep plume of low level moisture up into the Lower Mississippi Valley this morning with surface dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s across many locations.
932 AM EDT THU MAY 26 2016 High pressure will extend over the area from offshore through Friday night producing above normal temperatures.
/Issued 507 AM CDT THU MAY 26 2016/ For today and tonight, the upper level low pressure system currently over central Arizona will head ene into nrn NM and srn CO by late this afternoon, then towards ern CO and wrn KS by 12Z Friday. As this occurs, the sfc pressure gradient will tighten today in advance of a cold front. For Friday and Friday night, the upper level low pressure system is progged to track newd across KS and NE. The corresponding sfc cold front will move sewd thru the fcst area durg the daylight hours.
737 AM EDT THU MAY 26 2016 High pressure over the region, along with a drier air mass, will keep the weather quiet, with VFR conditions.
An upper level low will persist over British Columbia through at least tonight.
) In between over Northern Alabama and Southern Middle Tennessee, mesoscale models are similar keeping fairly strong subsidence in place in the lower levels of the atmosphere until later this afternoon.
/issued 500 AM CDT THU MAY 26 2016/ Latest upper air analysis/water vapor satellite imagery revealed an upper trof over the Desert SW with a downstream ridge over the western Gulf. At the surface, high pressure was centered just east of the Carolinas, with a trof of low pressure over the Plains states. The upper ridge that has shielded the region from much in the way of convection is progged to steadily erode as the upper trof out west continues east and then northeast toward the Plains states.
By this evening however, the main upper low will be coming east, and models have some precip developing in central ND and moving into our western counties. Bumped up POPs in that area for the evening but think that after midnight the better precip chances will be further south over ABR/MPX's areas with the low level jet.
426 AM PDT THU MAY 26 2016 Showers and isolated thunderstorms over Sierra Nevada and the higher elevations of the Coastal Range today and into the weekend.
The trend of having the highest pops in the northwest half to two thirds looks to continue tonight. Based on the position of the front, how the cloud cover is this morning, and how fast the convection develops this afternoon, high temperatures may end up much cooler than I have them.
Cloud cover and precipitation will keep temperatures cooler with highs only in the 70s and lower 80s.
although, the gfs allows the warm front to move a little further north, which develops additional convection in the platte river valley during the afternoon, again making the forecast very challenging pinpoint the details. Given the proximity of the warm front with developing storms potentially along it, and environmental parameters of bulk shear of 40-50 knots, ample moisture, and very high instability, have no doubt we'll eventually have a severe threat later today.
The dominant feature this morning is a closed upper low centered near 4 corners with some remnant convection drifting swwd across ern and srn Ut. Models indicate the airmass is fairly unstable today and the low level moisture in place will generate terrain based convection starting shortly.
but the question is what will happen this afternoon once this trough exits. A slight midlevel ridge will also develop behind the exiting trough.
1230 PM EDT THU MAY 26 2016 High pressure will extend over the area from offshore through Friday night producing above normal temperatures.
Water vapor imagery/RAP analysis had the mid level ridge axis from the central Gulf north across the middle of our cwa. Together these ridges will help maintain a drier air mass over east Mississippi and inhibit convection there. main change with this update was to raise maximum temperatures a degree or two as morning temperatures were running a couple degrees warmer than yesterday at the same time. Prominent ridge axis which has been sheltering the area from convection to the west was finally compromised yesterday afternoon and evening. While ridge looks to still be in place, it has been flattened considerably with more westerly wind components blowing through at the moment. While some reorganization of the ridge is likely today, a convective repeat is also likely over the western sections by afternoon with eastern areas remaining dry.
The main thunderstorm potential Friday should be over the higher terrain of southeast Wyoming.
High temperatures today will once again be in the lower and middle 80s but it will feel even more humid. High temps today will once again push the lower to mid 80s.
1033 AM EDT THU MAY 26 2016 High pressure will remain over the area through the end of the week.
Low pressure will move east into Arizona today with residual moisture and instability leading to a few showers and thunderstorms over the southern Great Basin through Friday. Upper low that was over southern California yesterday is over northeast Arizona this morning. Best CAPE values highlight the higher terrain of Lincoln, Clark, central Nye, northern Mohave Counties as well as the Sierra Nevada today. Like yesterday, brief heavy rainfall possible under a cell in the mountains with gusty winds primary impact for the lower desert valleys. Low pressure will move east today and northwest flow will set up behind the departing system. Weak troughing will develop and linger over the southwestern states through the weekend which will keep temperatures on the moderate side and a few degrees below normal.
The upper levels will be dominated by a broad southwest to northeast flow regime, with a building upper ridge from the eastern Gulf coast to the eastern Great Lakes. And there's been a couple lately that have tried, but eventually succumbed to the subsidence of the upper level ridge. High pressure remains in control with VFR conditions expected for most of the next 24 hours.
Along and north of the trough light showers continued. Just behind the trough low stratus and fog have developed. As the upper level low begins pushing eastward today additional showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop across western North Dakota and spread eastward.
942 AM EDT THU MAY 26 2016 The pattern aloft this morning features troughing over the western half of the nation with a ridge building over the Gulf of Mexico. The Florida peninsula resides along the eastern periphery of this ridge with a weak low to our east over the Bahamas and western Atlantic. At the surface, high pressure remains anchored just east of the U. east coast with a weak area of low pressure situated between Bermuda and the Bahamas. High pressure will remain north of the area for the next couple of days, keeping an easterly wind flow in place except for a turn onshore with the sea breeze circulation each afternoon.
500 mb vortices moving around the base of the 500 mb closed low will move over northern Mexico and southern Texas throughout early Fri. Will maintain chc pops over most of the area today and tonight and will then trend back pops a bit on Fri as the closed low moves further north decreasing the PVA. Will warm up the high temps a bit for Fri as expect that there will be a bit more sunshine which could edge them up some.
1003 AM EDT THU MAY 26 2016 High pressure ridge just north of the area will continue to supply sunny and dry conditions today. Bermuda ridge just north of the area will keep easterly winds at 10 to 15 knots in place today with seas averaging 2 to 4 feet.
A strong low pressure system is expected to eject NE out of the four corners region into the SW plains this afternoon. Most of the models have activity tapering off as it nears the area due to the strength of the ridge to our east.
1250 PM EDT THU MAY 26 2016 High pressure will extend over the area from offshore through Friday night producing above normal temperatures.
The upper low over Southern California will move northeast into Colorado tonight.
The arrival of a cold front tonight will bring cooler temperatures for the Memorial Day weekend, along with a good chance for showers over the Idaho Panhandle and the mountainous portions of Washington. Another wave will move west to east through the day ahead of the closed low approaching the area. Expect clouds to increase through the day ahead of the cold front set to move across the area this evening and overnight.
Weak ridging aloft and at the surface should keep most of the North Country dry today. Warm air advection on Friday behind warm front which continues to move northward.
1054 AM EDT THU MAY 26 2016 High pressure over the southeast United States will result in continued southwesterly flow across the upper Ohio Valley through the holiday weekend. Will leave current forecast in the lower 80s for now, but this may have to be adjusted in later issuances. We will remain in a fairly similar pattern heading into the weekend with our area on the back side of the ridge in place across the southeastern United States. It looks like the ridge may actually build back northwest toward our area through the day on Friday.
713 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016 LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL BUILD IN MONDAY.
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 83 63 78 59 / 50 40 70 70 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 81 63 77 59 / 40 50 70 70 OAK RIDGE, TN 82 63 76 58 / 50 50 70 70 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 80 59 77 57 / 50 50 70 80.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL TODAY AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALOFT CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING ALOFT AND THE AIRMASS IS DRYING.
/ISSUED 318 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016/ The upper low over Arizona will open up and its remnants will shear eastward across the plains over the next 24 hours.
858 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016 A COUPLE OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL PROVIDE RAIN OVER THE REGION INTO EARLY MONDAY. A DIGGING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL HELP SUPPORT A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG THE EAST COAST.
/ISSUED 442 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016/ COMPLEX UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM FOUR-CORNERS REGION INTO CENTRAL PLAINS PROGD TO SHEAR OUT AND MOVE PROGRESSIVELY OVER AND NORTH OF OKLAHOMA THROUGH TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE EXPECTED MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA CLOSER TO TROUGH AXIS.
AS FAR AS THE EARLY MORNING UPDATE THE ONLY CHANCE WAS TO UPDATE LATEST OBSERVATIONS RESULTING IN A COOLER START TO THE DAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OVER THE FORECAST AREA TODAY WITH SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. /CANADA UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT PROVIDING SUPPORT FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA DURING THE DAY.
633 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016 THE UPPER PATTERN FEATURED AN UPPER LOW IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING INTO QUEBEC AND A RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC INTO ALBERTA. THE TROUGH/RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST TODAY INTO MONDAY. THESE CLOUDS WILL STICK AROUND THIS MORNING BUT SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTH AS THE LOW MOVES FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST. IT WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER TODAY FOR MOST AREAS. IT WILL BE COOLER AROUND LAKE SUPERIOR WITH AN EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUING. MONDAY WILL BE WARMER YET WITH HIGHS FOR MANY AREAS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE SIXTIES. EVEN AREAS CLOSER TO LAKE SUPERIOR SHOULD BE WARMER AS WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE WESTERLY. A BROAD CANADIAN UPPER TROF OVER THE CENTRAL U. THEN A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL FINISH OFF THE PERIOD.
Next closed cyclone to affect SW KS weather looks quite healthy on IR satellite imagery across Arizona this morning, with ongoing convection SW of the Four Corners. With 850 mb temperatures holding near a chilly +2C, and limited insolation, afternoon temperatures will struggle into the lower 50s, with some SW locales holding in the upper 40s.
701 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016 PASSING WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING RAIN THIS MORNING. THE SURFACE WARM FRONT IS WELL TO OUR SOUTHWEST. BUT A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDS ROUGHLY FROM LAKE ERIE THROUGH LAKE ONTARIO TO FAR NORTHER NEW YORK. WITH COOL STABLE AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS.
709 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016 A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. A COLD FRONT STALLS OVER THE AREA MONDAY.
/issued 349 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016/ The cold front that was hanging around the area yesterday will get a good push south as high pressure builds into eastern New Mexico and West Texas this morning. The strong cold air advection will be aided by increasing clouds to give much cooler highs today than we have seen in quite a while. Models have been trending lighter with QPF amounts on rainfall today likely due to the upper low producing the rain weakening as it moves northeast into the plains later today.
937 AM PDT SUN MAY 1 2016 A departing low pressure system will bring the slight chance of showers and thunderstorms today across the mountains, foothills, and antelope valley.
An upper low across northwest KS will slowly drift northeast into southeast NE by 12Z SUN. Most of the ascent ahead of the upper low will remain north of the CWA but there may be enough lift for occasional showers and perhaps an isolated thunderstorms. If there are breaks in the overcast highs could be slightly warmer. Tonight, as the upper low moves northeast across the far norther counties of the CWA into southeast NE there could be some residual moisture that wraps around the vertically stacked surface/850mb/H5 low which could cause isolated showers to develop southward towards I-70 after midnight. | By Monday, an upper level trough will be located directly over northeast Kansas bringing slight chances for very light scattered rain showers for most of the area that afternoon.
733 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016 MID-LVL Q-VECT CONV AND COLUMN MOISTENING ON PERIPHERY OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLIDING E THROUGH THE MIDWEST ALONG WITH MODERATE 700-600 MB FGEN IN RESPONSE TO COUPLED UPPER JET STRUCTURE OVER AREA HAS SUPPORTED SOME SCT -SHRA OVER NE WI EARLY THIS MORNING. MID-HIGH CLOUDS ON PERIPHERY OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL GRADUALLY THIN LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FM NW OF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WITH MIN TEMPS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30F OVER THE INTERIOR. TO THE LOWER TO MID 30S NEAR THE GREAT LAKES. A DECAYING MID-LEVEL RIDGE TRACKING SE ACROSS THE CWA ON MONDAY WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT ALONG WITH DIURNAL CUMULUS INLAND.
06Z SFC DATA HAS A LOW NEAR KSTL WITH AN INVERTED TROF RUNNING FROM THE LOW INTO SOUTHERN NEBRASKA.
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY MONDAY HOWEVER A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL LINGER TO THE SOUTHEAST.
SEXTON SUMMIT AT 4000 FEET IS 12 DEGREES WARMER THAN 24 HOURS AGO. AS FLOW TURNS SOUTHERLY AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA.
LOW PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR SAINT LOUIS WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY.
837 AM PDT SUN MAY 1 2016 LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES WILL WEAKEN.