Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
530 PM EST Mon Nov 7 2016 High pressure will allow for one more dry and warm day on Tuesday.
646 PM EST Mon Nov 7 2016 High pressure will prevail through Tuesday keeping the region dry.
626 PM EST Mon Nov 7 2016 A ridge of high pressure at the surface and aloft will remain over the region through Tuesday.
Aloft a trough of low pressure across the Central and Southern Plains will provide weak impulses across the Four State Region and keep rain chances ongoing overnight and into tomorrow. Upper level trough will continue to be the primary weather influence and thus the lower clouds should prevail for much of Tuesday with showers still possible throughout the day.
1026 PM EST Mon Nov 7 2016 Dry high pressure will will persist over the area through Tuesday.
/issued 646 PM EST Mon Nov 7 2016/ VFR conditions are forecast through the TAF period as high pressure continues to be in control.
516 PM CST Mon Nov 7 2016 The high pressure ridge just to the east is slowly losing ground to the advancing storm system to the west. connected by a cold front/sfc trof will move closer to the Midwest overnight, bringing an increasing cloud cover of mostly mid clouds at least early on. Cold front expected to be past the I-70 corridor by Tuesday evening as it makes its way southeastward toward the east coast.
615 PM EST Mon Nov 7 2016 A ridge of high pressure at the surface and aloft will remain over the region through Tuesday.
Expect mostly clear skies with lows in the lower 70s.
910 PM EST Mon Nov 7 2016 High pressure will be situated east of the area overnight and Tuesday allowing for southerly flow. A cold front will move through Tuesday evening and Tuesday night. Cirrus clouds will spread in from the west overnight as the high pressure continues to shift off to the east. The combination of the increasing clouds and light southerly flow will keep temperatures a little warmer than the past few nights. Expect lows tonight mainly in the low to mid 40s, although a few upper 30s will be possible in some of the outlying areas. Southerly flow will pick up on Tuesday in advance of a cold front that will move through Tuesday evening into Tuesday night.
A cold front will make its way across the forecast area tonight. Expect highs in the low to mid 50s, which is still about 10 degrees above climatological normals.
Ridging and subsidence will quickly bring drying and clearing, such as has already spread into the area northwest of Sioux Falls this afternoon. Tuesday night looks quiet as high pressure drifts across the forecast area. Certainly would not rule out some lows in the mid 20s over the low lying areas in northwest IA.
541 PM CST Mon Nov 7 2016 An upper low has entered the Central Plains as of early Monday morning as depicted on water vapor imagery. A weak surface cold front currently positioned across central Nebraska will also provide additional ascent for precipitation early Tuesday morning as it crosses into central Missouri before sunrise. Weak cold air advection will bring afternoon highs down a couple of degrees Tuesday, generally reaching into the lower 60s for most areas. The marginally active pattern will then subside through the remainder of the week as upper ridging develops across the Rockies in response to a weak upper-level blocking pattern.
1044 PM EST Mon Nov 7 2016 A ridge of high pressure at the surface and aloft will remain over the region through Tuesday.
939 PM EST Mon Nov 7 2016 High pressure centered across the northeast states will move southward and weaken. Meanwhile a cold front will move southeast across the Great Lakes on Tuesday and through the region Tuesday evening.
Surface map shows high pressure retreating off to the east with an inverted trough aligned just to our west helping to focus enough low-level moisture for VFR ceilings.
210 PM PST Mon Nov 7 2016 High pressure will prevail for most of the upcoming week with dry conditions, light winds and above average daytime temperatures. Few changes to the going forecast were made with high pressure to remain over the intermountain west. With this pattern for the next 3 days, expect the mid slopes and ridges to remain quite mild overnight.
After the larger area of rain moves out of the fa this afternoon, the best chance for rain will be tonight as cold front moves across the area.
GOES high density winds are indicating an upper ridge amplifying off over CA coast. WV indicating some high level moisture is pushing through the ridge into central CA and providing our area with some high clouds. Despite the high clouds, patches of dense fog formed in the San Joaquin Valley around sunrise this morning, but dissipated by around 900 am PST.
Otherwise, high pressure will build in from the west for fair skies and above normal temperatures this week.
This is in part to upper trough hanging back to the west and a southward moving cold front. Trough axis remains back to the west of the forecast area on Tuesday.
512 PM CST Mon Nov 7 2016 Positively tilted short wave digging southeast from the Midwest will approach the region with an associated cold front Tue/Tue night. A broad area of high pressure will build east into the Ohio Valley region for much of the rest of the short term, keeping all areas dry but cooler.
That could produce a window for FG, but most likely focus then shifts to the potential for additional MVFR ceilings behind a stronger cold front that will move through the region by 12z. However, a trailing mid-level trough is expected to remain just east and south of the CWFA. A cold front has slowly moved south across the area today with low clouds hanging around especially in the northeast. Around midnight, a secondary push of cooler and drier air will dive into the region with breezy northerlies persisting much of the day on Tuesday. High pressure then builds in during the late afternoon yielding diminishing wind speeds.
Model guidance is showing activity developing ahead of an approaching cold front with additional cells along the boundary possible. As the low-levels cool tonight, we expect fog to develop across most areas. The fog should begin to dissipate by mid-morning as a cold front moves in from the north. The cold front will continue to move southward Tuesday night and with drier air filtering in to the low-levels, rain chances will be on the decrease.
908 PM EST Mon Nov 7 2016 High pressure will extend into the region from the north through Tuesday.
1025 PM EST Mon Nov 7 2016 A large area of high pressure will slowly recede off to the southeast overnight and Tuesday.
Temperatures have warmed nicely again today with readings already in the lower to middle 70s in most locations. Expect these clouds will have some minor impacts on radiational cooling tonight and have trended min temps from warmer (west) to cooler (east). The aforementioned clouds are along the leading edge of a rather complex positively tilted trough oriented from the Great Lakes to the Red River Valley. The southern extent of the trough will become cutoff/retrograde across the southern Plains resulting in a mainly dry frontal passage for the Tennessee Valley late Tuesday/Tuesday night.
The majority of what has fallen has been evaporated away by very dry air in the lower levels. The rain will continue to work on the lower level dry air this evening eventually making it to the ground as it slowly creeps east.
733 PM EST Mon Nov 7 2016 A large area of high pressure will slowly recede off to the southeast overnight and Tuesday.
920 PM EST Mon Nov 7 2016 High pressure will crest over the area through Tuesday.
/issued 240 PM CST Mon Nov 7 2016/ An upper level low pressure system over the Central Plains today will remain cut off from the main flow and drift southwestward over the next several days. High pressure should rebuild behind the front with a return to dry weather and slightly cooler temperatures.
657 PM EST Mon Nov 7 2016 High pressure brings a stretch of dry weather through Tuesday.
A stratus deck ahead of this low pressure has remained persistent over Kansas this afternoon, minus a small clearing over portions of northeast Kansas. The best chances for precipitation look to be along the inverted trough axis which will nose into southeastern Kansas this evening, and ahead of the main trough axis in central Kansas. With the stratus deck staying in place overnight, low temperatures stay slightly warmer than climatology in the mid 40s to low 50s. The upper trough axis moves east by tomorrow morning, ending precipitation chances from northwest to southeast. High pressure behind this system moves towards northeast Kansas tomorrow helping to clear skies. Temperatures tomorrow will be similar to those today with highs in the low 60s expected area wide. The main concern will be the time of arrival and location of the high pressure center.
817 PM EST Mon Nov 7 2016 Deep layered ridging will remain in control with pleasant dry weather continuing through Tuesday. Temperatures tonight and Tuesday will run a few degrees above normal with lows tonight falling into the upper 50s to around 60 across the Nature Coast, and lower to mid 60s central and south, with daytime highs on Tuesday again climbing into the lower 80s.
745 PM EST Mon Nov 7 2016 A large area of high pressure will slowly recede off to the southeast overnight and Tuesday.
This very low precipitation system should all shift east quickly overnight with cold advection kicking in Tuesday and cooler, breezy conditions.
A strong wave pushing through southern Canada is progged to phase with an upper low over the south central Plains by 12z Tue, while a ridge axis remains off to our east. Southeast flow around the ridge has allowed for modest moisture return with PWATs surging to 1. A SFC ThetaE ridge was also located across central MS in association with the surge of moisture. The majority of what has fallen has been evaporated away by very dry air in the lower levels. The rain will continue to work on the lower level dry air this evening eventually making it to the ground as it slowly creeps east.
Latest sfc observations suggest the cold front is still well north of West Texas and Southeast New Mexico, but winds have already veered to the north, and are set to increase over the next 24 hours as tighter gradients set in. /issued 131 PM CST Mon Nov 7 2016/ The upper trough over the Central Plains this morning will split apart with some of the energy moving NE and some of it retrograding back to the SW.
650 PM EST Mon Nov 7 2016 High pressure will build over the area through Tuesday.
1100 PM EST Thu Jan 5 2017 A fast-moving light snow event will impact the area overnight, with the highest snowfall amounts in the Laurel Highlands and southeast. Expected amounts over the lower Susq Valley shower range from 2 to locally 4 inches where the aforementioned bands situate the longest overnight. Friday AM commute to be impacted over the Lower susq where Winter Wx Advisory remains in effect. Aloft, upper trough over the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley lingers, keeping mention of lake effect snow showers in the far NW mtns.
Any secondary slick roadways which may have improved with traffic today will likely become hazardous once again during the Friday morning commute as northerly winds and persistent cold advection maintain these well- below freezing surface temperatures. A positively-titled upper-level trough over the northwestern CONUS will push through the Southern Plains Friday night, with resulting precipitation expected to remain well south of the CWA.
A short wave trough will be moving southeast through the panhandles overnight and this should help to intensify the snowfall. The snow and the low cigs should bring conditions down into the IFR range. This evening we will see height falls over the Panhandles as the upper trough dives southward. The intensity of snowfall should diminish within the band around midday as the upper trough begins to enter the far northwest corner of the area. We expect to see the highest snow amounts across the far northwest portions of the Panhandles where we could 5 to 7 inches of snow with locally higher amounts.
with more clouds moving in during the day Friday as the next weak trough moves into the northwest area Friday afternoon.
Although winds are expected to be slightly less tonight than those of last night, the lower actual air temps will result in wind chills of -20F or lower as far south as between IA Hwy 3 and US 20. Before that system arrives, winds will briefly become southwest as surface Arctic high pressure departs off to the east.
Temperatures will finally rise to be all above zero on Friday as the low level west to southwest winds bring in slightly warmer air. Another surface cold front will push in from the north Friday afternoon.
420 PM CST Thu Jan 5 2017 Sfc analysis shows the cold front oozing through the forecast area this afternoon.
A significant arctic cold front has already advanced well to the south of the CWA, with objective upper-air analyses showing 700 mb temperatures of -20 deg C or less. Highs Friday should be in the neighborhood of 10 degrees warmer than today, but still colder than most guidance given existing snow pack.
Still have an area of light snow showers and flurries associated with the upper level trof (shallow moisture with steep low level lapse rates) moving se into central IL during this afternoon, and these should diminish late this afternoon. Also have large 1036 mb arctic high pressure near ID/MT border and ridging into the central plains that will nose into the mid MS and ohio river valleys through Friday. Expansive high pressure will build east from the Plains toward the heartland Friday night into the weekend.
Cold air advection behind the wave will keep temperatures mainly in the lower to mid 20s for Friday, after lows of teens to lower 20s tonight.
/Issued 332 PM CST Thu Jan 5 2017/ The deep Arctic intrusion and mostly cloudy skies have kept temperatures below freezing this afternoon over most of the CWA.
Arctic High pressure over the Northern plains will build across Central Indiana on Friday and through the weekend.
Arctic high pressure will gradually build in through the weekend. Road temperatures look like they managed to get above freezing across the southern half of the area, but this will not last for long with road model suggesting that they will drop back below freezing before dark.
Short term portion of the forecast will be pretty quiet with persistent Southwesterly flow continuing as upper level trough remains over the area.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 30 32 21 32 / 20 50 60 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 27 30 20 29 / 50 60 60 20 Oak Ridge, TN 28 30 18 30 / 60 50 50 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 27 28 17 27 / 70 60 70 20 NC.
Additional snow accumulations will range anywhere from 2-6 inches over the higher terrain in Summit and Park counties by mid evening. Coldest temperatures will be found along the South Platte River just below Denver and in the high mountain valleys where readings could fall below 20 below zero overnight. much drier conditions and warmer temperatures are in store as an upper ridge builds in from the west. Daytime highs 15-25 degrees warmer under clear to partly cloudy skies. An upper level ridge will build over the Central Rockies this weekend.
1013 PM EST Thu Jan 5 2017 A fast-moving light snow event will impact the area overnight, with the highest snowfall amounts in the Laurel Highlands and southeast. Expected amounts over the lower Susq Valley shower range from 2 to locally 4 inches where the aforementioned bands situate the longest overnight. Friday AM commute to be impacted over the Lower susq where Winter Wx Advisory remains in effect. Aloft, upper trough over the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley lingers, keeping mention of lake effect snow showers in the far NW mtns.
Main upper trough was moving across the great Lakes region with a broad trough extending across the Plains. For the counties along and north of Interstate 70 fewer clouds, light winds and fresh snow cover will make for excellent radiational cooling as high pressure settles into.
The upper high/strong positive height anomaly near the Aleutians that was anchoring the block will force low upper heights downstream over much of the CONUS into the weekend, then the flow will become more progressive as the amount of Pacific flow undercutting the block increases.
633 PM EST Thu Jan 5 2017 Low pressure will move NE offshore the US east coast tonight and Friday, while the center of cold polar high pressure shifts SE into the Central Plains.
Arctic High pressure over the Northern plains will then build across Central Indiana on Friday and through the weekend.
With all this in mind, there will be some potential for icing on surfaces as temps are expected to continue to be below freezing sfc and aloft thru 06/24Z.
Those clouds match up fairly well with the 850-700mb RH as seen on the RAP, which has the higher RH values moving slowly eastward into our CWA overnight. Weather across the northern plains in the extended time frame will transition from the current arctic cold to a relatively warmer and snowier pattern for the next work week.
734 PM CST Thu Jan 5 2017 Updates made this evening to re-establish falling temperature trend through the evening with the secondary surge behind the cold front.
Western areas will see stronger winds but warmer temps, keeping wind chills above -20F, though still pretty cold. Canadian clipper combined with backdoor cold front will result in increasing potential for mainly light snow across our east later tonight into Friday night. Given a near-surface dendritic layer that moistens along the sfc trof, have raised pops in our far east at such places as Miles City, Baker and Ekalaka.
544 PM CST Thu Jan 5 2017 The cold front has made its way through the AUS and San Antonio terminals. At the surface, a cold front was stretched from Victoria to Fort Stockton. There will be a chance for rain over parts of the south and east, but any precipitation should be in areas where the temperatures will remain above freezing and should be rain. Temperatures will be much colder with lows below freezing along and northwest of I-35.
656 PM EST Thu Jan 5 2017 A fast-moving light snow event will impact the area this evening through tonight, with the highest snowfall amounts in the Laurel Highlands. with only the Lower Susq not yet reporting snow at this hour, but they will within the next hour or two. Expected amounts over the lower Susq Valley remain near 2" criteria. Aloft, upper trough over the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley lingers, keeping mention of lake effect snow showers in the far NW mtns.
Forecast challenge has continued to be the latitude of the cold front vs forecast models. Decided to cancel advisories for below 6500 ft in thinking most precip will be ahead of the below freezing air.
507 PM CST Thu Jan 5 2017 /00Z TAFS/ Gusty northeast winds of 10 to 15 knots will continue through Friday evening, in the wake of a cold front that moved through the area earlier today. Lows early Friday morning will be in the upper teens across our northern counties, to the lower 20s in our southern counties. Afternoon highs are expected to range from mainly the mid 20s across the Big Country area (along/north of I-20), to near the freezing mark along the I-10 corridor.
In the wake of this system arctic high pressure will become the dominant weather feature and will keep the region dry along with well below normal temperatures through the period.
Low level ridging is expected to steadily dry out the air this evening, with flurries quickly ending. Some models, the high resolution ARW and to a lesser extent the NAM, are showing enough moisture in the H850-700 level to suggest flurries east of the James River late in the day.
919 PM CST Thu Jan 5 2017 The cold front is currently pushing through South Texas along a Cotulla to George West to Port O Connor line with light rain developing and temperatures quickly falling behind the front.
Temperatures are in the lower 70s. In the low levels of the atmosphere, a weak pressure pattern will prevail overnight. In the mid levels of the atmosphere, an Atlantic ridge of high pressure will extend across Cuba tonight.
Temperatures are already below freezing across the area, with the exception being the mid 30s over north Mississippi. As the cold front moves south, an area of frontogenesis is progged to develop along the sloped frontal surface, roughly between 850-700 mb. Accumulations on Friday will again remain less than 1 inch with the highest amounts occurring south of Interstate 40.
TFJ Previous Discussion: Synoptic Setup: A large warm ridge resides over the Gulf of Alaska. A pair of ridge spurs jut out from this airmass across the Yukon Territory and central Alberta where they terminate over modified arctic air. A narrow synoptic trough runs west out of this airmass into southern Montana, Idaho, and Oregon.
An upper level ridge was moving over the forecast area at 20Z. Underneath this ridge, a surface trof was located over western Lake Superior. The low level convergence near the trof and the cold NW wind over the warm lake waters, resulted in some very light lake effect snow showers from NE Douglas county through the Bayfield peninsula and the Apostle Islands. Will see little movement in this trof through Friday and will keep the same pops over the same places along the south shore to account for the persistent snow. High pressure will cover the region on Friday, except for the aforementioned trof over Lake Superior. Max temps will be a bit warmer.
/issued 157 PM CST Thu Jan 5 2017/ Arctic air continues to filter into the region this afternoon behind a strong cold front. Temperatures have struggled to reach freezing across the northern Permian Basin while locations along the Rio Grande are currently near 80 degrees! High clouds are also developing across the area with visible satellite showing a mountain wave signature over the Upper Trans Pecos region. The front has temporarily hung up against the higher terrain, but will push through the rest of the area tomorrow. Cloud cover and a continued cold, north wind will keep temperatures from reaching freezing along and north of the Pecos River Friday afternoon.
709 PM EST Thu Jan 5 2017 A fast-moving light snow event will impact the area this evening through tonight, with the highest snowfall amounts in the Laurel Highlands. with only the Lower Susq not yet reporting snow at this hour, but they will within the next hour or two. Expected amounts over the lower Susq Valley remain near 2" criteria. Aloft, upper trough over the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley lingers, keeping mention of lake effect snow showers in the far NW mtns.
551 PM CST Thu Jan 5 2017 00Z TAFS A cold front continues to slowly push through the area this evening. For the time being, I inserted a tempo group for freezing rain beginning at 21Z through the end of the package. /issued 420 PM CST Thu Jan 5 2017/ Sfc analysis shows the cold front oozing through the forecast area this afternoon.
The deep Arctic intrusion and mostly cloudy skies have kept temperatures below freezing this afternoon over most of the CWA.
635 PM MST Thu Jan 5 2017 Early afternoon WV imagery and RAP upper level analysis shows a trough across the Northern Plains digging southward into the Central High Plains. At the surface 1027mb high pressure is building south and the southern extent of this is over much of our CWA. Tonight-Friday: Temperatures are trending a bit cooler this evening with persistent CAA into the region. High temperatures Friday could be complicated by lingering snow pack despite arctic high pressure moving east of our CWA and sunny skies prevailing. Regarding Wind Chill Advisory tonight-Friday morning: Arctic high pressure will continue to slide south over our region.
Surface map this afternoon had center of high pressure/modified Arctic airmass over the Central Plains.
Next storm system expected to move well south of the CWA, which will keep the forecast dry and cold through Friday as ridge of high pressure remains in control.
Given these breaks in the clouds, light winds, and recent snowfall the lows tonight could easily fall back to below zero in several locations. Expecting the highest total snowfall accumulation across Morton county where 3-5" inches will be possible when all is said and done.