Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
316 PM CDT Thu Sep 29 2016 Very little has changed in the larger scale weather pattern as upper- level low pressure remains on a wobbly sit 'n spin in the Ohio Valley with a sharp ridge aloft back across the Dakotas. Exception could be some areas near the Buffalo Ridge later tonight and early Friday morning that hints in hi-res solutions to higher threat of widespread lower clouds and visibilities. Ridge aloft will narrow somewhat on Friday as upper low starts to wobble back toward the northwest, and wave pushes into upper ridge in the northern high plains. Low level ridge will remain in place, and southerly gradient increases just a bit across the James valley.
Upper Ridge was centered to our east allowing for a weak southwest flow over Montana.
The 29/0600Z GFS indicated the highest moisture levels this afternoon to reside in the northern portions of the CWA. /issued 411 AM EDT Thu Sep 29 2016/ Synopsis: High pressure will gradually nose westward into South Florida over the weekend, but warm, humid conditions will prevail with daily chances for thunderstorms.
Will leave alpine pops alone with this update Upper level ridge axis over eastern Colorado early this morning will shift slowly eastward through tonight. Not sure if anything will even make it into the foothills given the high amplitude ridge and southerly flow, while the plains should stay dry with a drier and slightly more stable airmass in place.
348 PM CDT THU SEP 29 2016 Not much going on in the short term with high pressure to the east and a broad area of low pressure to the west resulting in southerly flow and some gustiness with about a 12mb gradient across the state. The period begins with high pressure over the region with a large upper level low pressure area moving into the west coast.
141 PM EDT Thu Sep 29 2016 Expansive area of upslope driven low clouds will erode through early this afternoon, only to replaced by additional clouds rotating back west on north side of expansive upper level low centered in the Ohio Valley. Otherwise, increasingly gusty northeast winds will make expected highs in the mid and upper 60s feel just a touch cooler. Dry NE low level flow well north of the low center has kept much of our CWA mostly clear thru the night. With the low remaining basically stagnant over the Ohio Valley combined with persistent dry NE low level flow. The upper low that moved across the region over the last few days has settled south across the southern Ohio Valley as advertised.
142 PM CDT THU SEP 29 2016 Last week, we were under the influence of High pressure at both the surface, and aloft. Now, for the remainder of this week and into the weekend, we will be under the influence of Low pressure aloft, and at the surface. The Low(s) will be spinning just to our east, across the Commonwealth and southern Indiana, thru Friday. It will include a convective element of instability (thunder) in the near term, mainly tmrw, for eastern ptns of the CWA, where the highest pops will exist as well.
1258 PM CDT Thu Sep 29 2016 Upper level ridge will remain over the area today with low level moisture trapped under an inversion. Ridging will remain in place. and considering the blocking nature of the atmosphere see little chance for clearing until day time heating has an effect. another dry period with temperatures slightly warmer than yesterday.
A big cooldown is underway across the forecast area as a cold upper low and a series of disturbances swing through from the northwest over the weekend.
The upper level ridge over the region will shift to the east late today and overnight but not before one last pleasant weather day. This will allow the low pressure system off the coast of Canada to drop southward and in turn push a weak cold front across the region overnight. Most likely will amend TAFS as needed for the low shower probability.
333 PM EDT THU SEP 29 2016 Low pressure will drift across the Upper Ohio Valley through the weekend.
Once this ridge axis passes tomorrow winds will increase from the southeast, first in the west and then in Central Oklahoma by early afternoon. An upper ridge will continue over parts of the region for the rest of the work week with a closed low over the Ohio Valley and upper trough along the West Coast.
A low pressure system will stay close to Indiana through the weekend, resulting in a damp, cool, spell.
349 PM CDT THU SEP 29 2016 Very pleasant fall conditions are upon most of Central Alabama, with dry air and cooler temperatures. 75 inches, which is the lowest we've seen in quite a long time. Due to the strong upper low just to our north, mid-level clouds have developed on the west side of the low, moving southward.
An upper level low dropping southeast towards the Tennessee Valley could bring a few clouds to the Golden Triangle area overnight and on Friday. Otherwise, with high pressure prevailing across the region and continued north to northwesterly flow at the surface and aloft, look for continued cool and dry conditions across the region as we head into the weekend. Under clear skies tonight, except those few clouds meandering about across Northeast Mississippi, lows will be chilly as they fall into the low and middle 50s. The only exception being East Central Mississippi where very dry soil conditions will help promote slightly warmer highs compared to the rest of the CWA. Then for Friday night, lows will again fall into the low and middle 50s.
345 PM CDT Thu Sep 29 2016 Upper level ridge was over the area. cooler in some spots for tonight. Upper low over KY will drift slowly back north on Fri. Little warmer weather for Fri.
At 3 pm readings varied from the mid 50s in the east with the steadier rains to the lower 60s over the somewhat drier Cumberland Valley. Winds have been light and variable through the day with a tendency for them to come out of the north and northwest while dewpoints have fallen into the low to mid 50s most places.
Then a large upper level cut off low pressure storm system will move across the area bringing widespread showers with mountain snow down to 9000 feet. The extended models show significant differences with the location of the low and these differences significantly impact the amount of moisture this low will bring to the area.
239 PM CDT THU SEP 29 2016 Water vapor imagery shows the upper low continuing to spin over the Ohio/Tennessee Valley with ridging over the Plains. At the surface, a ridge extends from the northern Miss valley down into central TX. Upper low is expected to remain stationary through Fri as some southern stream energy lifts across the desert sw. This will keep conditions across the Plains Fri fairly similar to today, with temps a degree or two warmer. Upper low will finally start to lift back to the north Fri evening into Sat as some more robust upper energy comes on shore over the Pacific NW.
242 PM CDT Thu Sep 29 2016 Latest water vapor satellite imagery indicates closed upper level low over the Ohio River Valley and upper level ridge over Northern and High Plains. 12z GFS/NAM are in decent agreement in lifting upper level closed low northward and wraps low level moisture into the eastern areas of the forecast area after 06z Friday. The deterministic models indicate increasing lift/moisture in association with the first impulse wrapping around the upper level closed low and to impact the eastern to southeast parts of the forecast area after 18z Friday.
242 PM EDT Thu Sep 29 2016 Low pressure will slowly drift back north into Michigan and eventually Ontario over the next couple of days.
On Friday, flow aloft backs as upper low over Pacific NW moves further inland.
505 PM EDT THU SEP 29 2016 A cold front will slowly push through the area this afternoon then stall near the coast. Drier and cooler air will filter into the region through the weekend. An upper level low over the Ohio Valley and associated cold front will bring dry weather to much of the forecast area today. The cold front will continue to move through the forecast area this afternoon pushing east of the area by Friday morning. Closed upper level low over the Ohio valley will shift to the northeast during the period. Air mass drying out during the period with dew points falling into the lower 50s.
1226 PM CDT THU SEP 29 2016 Latest water vapor imagery in addition to RAP 500 mb analysis shows an upper ridge axis extending over the nation's mid section. This is sandwiched in between a trough to our west and a deep low to our northeast. At the surface, a ridge axis extends from the eastern Dakotas into eastern Nebrsaka. Otherwise, dry weather is expected to continue for the forecast area through the weekend with temperatures close to normal for this time of year as the upper low to our northeast continues to spin south of the Great Lakes.
There is probably a better chance for this to develop in north central KS closer to the center of the high while there may be enough light wind just off the surface to mitigate fog potential farther east.
700 PM EDT Thu Sep 29 2016 High pressure will continue to build into the region from the north through Friday. Low pressure over the midwest drifts slowly north and east through the weekend.
This low will continue to linger in the area and actually move west slightly thru Fri.
255 PM CDT THU SEP 29 2016 Forecast area remains status quo in the short term as the upper low continues to spin across the Lower Ohio river valley. Nam/HRRR/SREF models all suggest some fog will develop tonight underneath the ridge where winds could go completely calm, thus will add some fog to the forecast.
Slow moving upper level low will be affecting the region. Chattanooga Airport, TN 74 51 73 55 / 10 0 10 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 72 49 72 52 / 20 10 20 10 Oak Ridge, TN 71 50 70 52 / 20 10 20 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 71 51 72 48 / 50 40 20 10.
340 PM CDT THU SEP 29 2016 An upper ridge will prevail across the Panhandles through Friday night allowing for a mostly dry weather pattern across the forecast area.
1252 PM CDT THU SEP 29 2016 Little change in today's or tonight's forecast as Minnesota and western Wisconsin will remain between an area of high pressure that was north of the Canadian border, and a storm system in the Ohio Valley. The strongest winds will occur closer to the area of low pressure in southeast Minnesota and west central Wisconsin.
201 PM CDT THU SEP 29 2016 A cold front is currently pushing through the area resulting in cooler temperatures than yesterday with highs today mostly ranging from the mid 70s to mid 80s. A large upper low is centered over Kentucky with upper ridging over West Texas and southeast New Mexico. On Friday, winds become southerly again and the upper ridge remains over the area.
600 PM CDT THU SEP 29 2016 Pesky upper low has drifted south of the Ohio River this afternoon, and is progged to wobble along the Indiana/Kentucky border through Friday. Periods of showers will continue to rotate around the low into our area, and will be most numerous on Friday. Have maintained the mention of isolated thunder for Friday afternoon, with edge of the 500 mb cold pool edging back into eastern Illinois as the low drifts northwest. With no real change in the air mass, temperatures will remain cooler than normal, with highs tomorrow in the upper 60s.
204 PM EDT Thu Sep 29 2016 Upper level low pressure will bring rain to our region for the rest of the week. The afternoon update included the addition of a wind advisory for the higher elevations, and immediate downslope areas. Deep, mature, stacked low pressure continues to spin over the Mid Ohio Valley with the surface occluded front analyzed as curving across East Central Ohio and Western WV. Low inversion levels on model soundings and low level jet expectations may be limited by wind orientation and degraded mixing, but given the magnitude and projected height of the low level jet, this headline was initiated.
Overnight low temperatures will mainly be in the low 50s, although a few low lying areas and river valleys may drop into the upper 40s.
To the west of this system in our area, an upper ridge has been slowly pushing in from the west, bringing drier air and mostly clear skies to the Upper Midwest. The concern late tonight is for fog across the area with the ridge axis in place. Tomorrow will be mostly clear, and a few degrees warmer than the past couple, but the low in Kentucky today will be drifting back north-northwest and spread clouds late in the day into western WI and eastern MN. Movement of the upper low over the Ohio River Valley/Great Lakes and the western CONUS trough into midweek are the main concerns in the longer term.
1228 PM CDT THU SEP 29 2016 With High pressure continuing to bring cool and dry air into the region, VFR conditions will persist through the TAF period. (ISSUED 623 AM CDT THU SEP 29 2016 ) High pressure will keep clear skies over the area today and tonight.
Models have a weak upper trough to move across Colorado later tonight into Friday morning, but it is pretty weak. It never gets into the lower levels for the plains on Friday. So there is increasing, mostly mid and upper level moisture and weak lift with a meager trough. For temperatures, Friday's highs should be 1-5 C cooler than this afternoon's readings. Blocking ridge-trough pattern across the continental U. next 36-48 hours as a massive closed off trough over the Mideast begins its slow shift eastward.
Large upper low appears to be centered just south of Louisville as per latest water vapor imagery. Not that much moisture underneath this low, with precipitable waters under an inch, but we do have some weak scattered showers rotating around the region. Expect the low to wobble around central Kentucky tonight.
330 PM CDT Thu Sep 29 2016 The low pressure system in the lower Ohio River Valley continues to slowly move south today. On Friday, the low pressure system will begin to back-track slightly to the NW into Indiana.
237 PM CDT Thu Sep 29 2016 The 19z IR/visible satellite imagery indicated that the upper low at 500 millibars was rotating counterclockwise across central Kentucky. Quite a bit of broken to overcast low clouds were shifting south- southeast around the periphery of the upper low toward the forecast area. The short term models continue to slowly lift the upper low slightly northward with time on Friday and expect that any light precip should remain generally north of the forecast area.
A weakening cold front continues to move across the region today, yielding little in the way of resultant weather outside of wind shifts to the north-northwest. Weakening cold front is analyzed early this morning just to our northwest with dewpoints remaining in the 70s across the entire CWA. The further upstream cold front, with the accompanied drier air and more noticeable wind shift to the north, is analyzed across central Mississippi and north central Alabama. Some drier air will filter into SE Alabama and SW Georgia today with the actual cold front making through the area tonight.
An upper level trough will bring showery and cooler weather Friday night through the weekend. An upper level low well off the coast will move south Friday, then fill Friday night as it moves into Oregon. As the low moves into Oregon Friday night, some light rain could clip the coast and Olympics. The most obvious change Friday may be the lowering snow level, which by afternoon will be 6000-7000 feet, down from its current level of 10000 feet.
320 PM CDT THU SEP 29 2016 The large upper closed low continues to be the focus for the short term forecast. Per satellite imagery, the upper low is over KY and headed slowly south towards the mid state. It will continue to spin over the region until the weekend when models show the upper low heading north towards the Great Lakes then eastward into New England. There will be slight chances tonight along the KY/TN border, and chances increase during the day tomorrow as another lobe of vorticity passes through the upper low.
Upper low forecast to wobble a bit further southeast before beginning to drift slowly northwest and north. Closed low moves northeast away from the area Friday night. Temperatures will gradually warm into the weekend as more mild air flows back into the region behind the low.
VFR conditions will prevail through the period with light NNE winds as weak high pressure settles into South Texas. A weak reinforcing surge of high pressure will continue to settle into the region this afternoon with dwpts dropping into the 50s area wide.
Winds are brisk from the north with the highest gusts near 25mph in the Delta.
314 PM EDT Thu Sep 29 2016 High pressure will continue to build into the region from the north through Friday. Low pressure over the midwest drifts slowly north and east through the weekend.
1217 PM CDT THU SEP 29 2016 The upper low currently over the Ohio Valley will remain stationary for at least the next 24 hours, with this blocky pattern leading to the upper ridge building across the plains. Northerly flow on the north side of the low will lead to cold advection continuing over the area today, with mostly clear skies with afternoon temps struggling to make it into the upper 60s to lower 70s.
203 PM EDT THU SEP 29 2016 KBYX detects isolated showers and thunderstorms over offshore waters north-northwest of the Lower Keys.
The cooling trend will continue for one more day on Friday as an upper trough approaches.
A cooling trend will continue through the weekend as the marine layer and onshore flow become better established with a trough deepening along the West Coast. In addition, a dry cold front will move through on Friday leading to breezy conditions. Satellite imagery shows most of the low cloudiness has cleared to the coast. Afternoon temperatures are running much cooler than those yesterday at this time with many readings in the 60s and 70s, with some areas as many as 16 degrees cooler than 24 hours ago. The cooling trend will continue Friday and into the weekend as an upper level trough approaches the coast. A dry cold front will move across the district on Friday resulting in an increase in wind speeds, mainly over the coastal waters and areas near the coast as well as in the near-coastal hills.
323 PM CDT THU SEP 29 2016 Upper analysis shows a closed low to our east drifting slowly south into Kentucky. The upper ridge to our west will slowly deamplify through the weekend.
NE winds 5-10 kts developing shortly at DRT behind a cold front.
Cooler min temps tonight /as compared to this morning with pleasant weather conditions expected Friday with sunny skies and highs in the 80s.
208 PM EDT Thu Sep 29 2016 High pressure will remain across the area tonight through Friday.
(Issued 1030 AM CDT Thu Sep 29 2016) The dry cold front that moved through northern Alabama last night currently extends from South Carolina southwest into the Florida panhandle. It was a bit warmer start this morning with lows in the upper 40s to lower 50s. Otherwise, a nice day with highs in the lower 70s. Increasing cloud cover should occur later this afternoon as cloud cover associated with a larger upper level low sinks south.
A broad cutoff trough over the Ohio River Valley and an upper ridge over the Plains will keep a dry northwesterly flow over the area. Overnight lows should fall into the low to mid 50s areawide and a few places in Southeast Oklahoma and Southwest Arkansas should cool into the upper 40s.
641 PM EDT THU SEP 29 2016 Low pressure will drift across the Upper Ohio Valley through the weekend.
132 PM EDT Thu Sep 29 2016 Upper level low pressure will bring rain to our region for the rest of the week. Deep, mature, stacked low pressure continues to spin over the Mid Ohio Valley with surface occluded front objectively analyzed as curving across Central WV. These areas will be closely monitored for severe given the magnitude of deep layer shear on the eastern flank of the low.
155 PM MDT Thu Sep 29 2016 Current surface map places trof over central Montana into eastern Wyoming. Strong upper ridge axis will cross the central CONUS Sat, bringing continued warm and generally dry weather -- except for isolated afternoon storms over the BH.
SHORT TERM (Tonight through Friday Night): A cold frontal boundary remains just to the south of the RGV. High pressure aloft and at the surface will continue to build into the region overnight. cooler conditions are also expected.
/ISSUED 318 AM CDT THU SEP 29 2016/ Though 3 to 4 hours slower than expected on previous forecast, the cold front is now here and moving into Central Texas as noted by area radar and observations. Meanwhile, a broad upper ridge has developed over the Plains, while a detached upper low continues sinking slowly south across the Ohio Valley and toward the Tennessee Valley. Mostly sunny skies will occur underneath the upper ridge today, while modest cold advection occurs in the lowest 5000 feet.
As the low moves to the north, clouds will spread across the forecast area late tonight with chances for showers returning to central and eastern Wisconsin during the day on Friday. Expect cooler temperatures in locations that cloud-over early, but highs should be similar to today in the north where clouds will take longer to reach. The return of the upper low for the weekend will bring clouds and precipitation chances for at least the first half of the weekend.
high pressure is building into Deep South Texas which will dominate the weather and bring N to NE winds through the period. A drier airmass, driven by surface ridging surging southward through the Plains, arrives in the Lower RGV this evening, effectively ending rain chances. Comfortable afternoon dewpoint temperatures ranging from the lower 50's NW to the mid-60's SE will also be place.
302 PM CDT THU SEP 29 2016 18Z surface analysis has high pressure from the upper Great Lakes into the southern Plains while a cut off upper low was over the lower Ohio Valley. The upper low over Kentucky will remain there through Friday.
/issued 629 AM CDT THU SEP 29 2016/ /12Z TAFS/ Cold front continues to make slow progress southward this morning. /issued 359 AM CDT THU SEP 29 2016/ (Today and Tonight) A weak cold front continues to head south across west central Texas early this morning.
Above normal temperatures will continue, but will be 5 to 8 degrees cooler than today.
952 PM EDT Tue Mar 14 2017 The cold front which pushed through the Keys earlier today is now over Cuba. Winds in the lowest 3000 feet are quite strong running 20-22 knots. Despite the winds, decent advection of cool air will allow temperatures to drop into the lower to mid 60s.
1053 PM MDT Tue Mar 14 2017 An upper level ridge of high pressure will move over the region tonight and Wednesday, continuing the generally clear sky and mild, above-normal temperatures. With rising heights and upper level temperatures, expect Wednesday to be a few degrees warmer than today. The ridge flattens Wednesday night as an upper level trough moves across the Pacific NW and suppresses the ridge to the southeast.
Across the northern tier temperatures continue in the 30s and we are seeing some light mixed precipitation at mainly the higher elevations. Could see some patchy black ice as temps go below freezing quite quickly tonight and will do an SPS across the northern tier to cover this. likely the result of the higher than expected cloud cover. May still be some snow or sleet covering the ground at the highest elevations of the NE mountains and will likely see min temps in the teens in these locations.
After morning lows in the upper 20s to around 40 degrees, temperatures have risen into the lower 50s east to the lower 70s west this afternoon under sunny skies. As some lee side troughing develops surface winds will veer around to the southeast during the afternoon. Highs will range from the mid 50s northeast to the lower 70s west.
/issued 342 PM CDT Tue Mar 14 2017/ A fairly quiet weather pattern is setting up as high pressure centered over the Northern Plains is forecast to build southward over the next several days.