Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
301 PM EST Tue Feb 28 2017 Low pressure over the central plains will move northeast across the Great Lakes Wednesday pulling a cold front across the area followed by a reinforcing cold front wednesday night.
320 PM CST Tue Feb 28 2017 Current surface analysis places low over central and eastern Montana with weak ridge over central and eastern North Dakota. Upper level analysis places weak trough sliding through central/eastern Montana with some light snow starting to develop.
Upper level analysis shows large scale trough over the Rockies into the high plains, with strong jet remaining from the Central Rockies to the Upper Midwest. Upper level analysis has trof crossing the Northern Rockies with unsettled southwest flow across the Northern Plains. Temperatures will be slightly cooler today, mainly in the 30s for highs and teens to lower 20s for lows. Upper trof finally shifts east of the area with northwest flow taking over.
IFR/LIFR low stratus and fog will continue at KCHA this morning as -RA eventually moves into the region from the SW along/ahead of a warm front.
1046 AM MST Tue Feb 28 2017 Cold front will continue through the forecast area overnight and should clear it by 12z. Either way, surface temperatures will be above freezing and ground temperatures even warmer, so snow will likely be melting on contact.
A strong upper jet will move across the Ohio valley with an another jet moving through the lower Tennessee valley. Besides the thunderstorms winds, strong low-level jet will produce windy conditions tonight across the higher elevations and area- wide for Wednesday.
Expect a lull in the activity later this afternoon and evening, with activity starting later tonight as a cold front nears Middle Tennessee. Strong to severe storms are possible as a squall line develops ahead of the cold front late tonight and tomorrow morning.
The next cold front is expected later tomorrow morning, with an initial wind shift to the north. Weak low pressure near the Sierra Madre this afternoon will keep winds fairly light across the far west with gusty winds near the coast today. Mostly cloudy skies return tonight with low temperatures falling into the lower 70s across much of the area. A cold front will approach and move through Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley on Wednesday. Above normal temperatures will continue into Wednesday before the cooler air arrives.
1223 PM EST Tue Feb 28 2017 A series of disturbances will keep periodic rain in the forecast through tonight before a strong cold front results in strong showers and thunderstorms Wednesday. Confidence continues to increase for severe thunderstorms to generate along the cold front on Wednesday.
113 PM EST Tue Feb 28 2017 A warm southerly flow between offshore high pressure and an approaching cold front will continue through Wednesday. The cold front will move through the forecast area Wednesday night. Cooler conditions will follow the front for the end of the week. The temperature guidance was consistent with highs mainly in the lower 80s and just below records for the date. The main issues Wednesday will be windy conditions ahead of a cold front and possible severe thunderstorms late Wednesday afternoon and night. The models depict a strong low-level jet ahead of the cold front Wednesday with h85 winds 40 to 50 knots.
242 PM CST Tue Feb 28 2017 An upper trough will cross the Northern and Central Plains tonight. Lows tonight will range from the mid teens eastern panhandle to the lower 20s southeast.
A moist northwest flow will continue over the area today, but as mentioned in the previous discussion, showers will be on the decrease during the day as ridging begins to build into the area.
Cold front to begin moving through the area late tonight/early Wednesday morning, and may bring some sct shwrs/tstms. They believe isolated super cells may develop out well ahead of the cold front this afternoon so we will watch for that possibility. the cold front is due to arrive and shift the winds by this time tomorrow.
Have adjusted forecast for earlier ending time with this fast moving trof. Behind the trof, stronger nw winds will also develop over the northeast portions of Colorado. Dry and slightly warmer conditions expected on the plains for Wednesday.
Much cooler air will be in place for the remainder of the short term.
1222 PM EST Tue Feb 28 2017 Aviation Low pressure moving through the Great Lakes today and Wednesday will bring a variety of weather.
208 PM EST Tue Feb 28 2017 High pressure will move away to the east tonight as low pressure approaches from the Great Lakes.
253 PM EST Tue Feb 28 2017 The area will grow increasingly mild ahead of a strong cold front that arrives late Wednesday night.
High pressure is forecast to build over the region with drying and temperatures trending towards normal through the remainder of this week.
229 PM EST Tue Feb 28 2017 A warm front will approach from the south and west tonight. Temperatures will be near record warm levels before a cold front moves across the area Wednesday night.
The dry line has moved just to east of a Wichita Falls to Junction line as of 3 PM while a cold front extended from northwestern Missouri to southeastern Colorado. The cold front will move into the Graham to Bowie areas shortly after midnight and sweep rapidly southeast through all but the southeastern-most zones by daybreak Wednesday.
Low pressure center at the surface had moved over into central Iowa, with most of the winds in our area now from the northwest. Subjective 00Z upper-air analysis indicates a broad upper-level trough in the western US, with west-southwesterly flow across the central US. Temperatures likely will reach morning (northwest) to midday (central) to early afternoon (southeast) highs before falling behind the cold front/inverted trough. In wake of the cold front and as the upper-level trough moves into the Great Lakes, temperatures will temper down toward normal for Wednesday.
Latest surface mesoanalysis shows dryline in west central Oklahoma with deepening low pressure in SE CO while a cold front extends northeast into KS.
Upper level ridging aloft the Gulf is shunted south but still dominates the area while Atlantic high pressure reaches across the state to the central Gulf. The ridging. An upper level trough moving through the eastern U.
943 AM PST Tue Feb 28 2017 High pressure will start to build in today.
The area will remain under the western edge of low level ridging with mostly zonal flow aloft. Off to our northwest, a mid level trough over the western central Plains will swing eastward towards the middle Mississippi Valley, pushing a cold front into the Ohio Valley, middle Mississippi valley, and southern Plains by the early morning hours.
320 PM CST Tue Feb 28 2017 20z/2pm surface analysis shows 1000mb low over eastern Iowa, with warm front extending southeastward along/just north of the I-74 corridor. Based on these parameters, it appears convection will first initiate near the warm front across the northern KILX CWA within the next hour or two. After that, attention will focus further west ahead of an advancing cold front where a squall line will take shape. Windy and much cooler weather will be noted in the wake of the system on Wednesday. 500 mb trough axis to shift across central Illinois Wednesday evening with lingering low chance POPs across our far north and east.
the surface cold front/wind shift is near Falls City with temperatures in the 60s there. The h5 longwave trough continues to deepen as it progresses across the Rockies and this broad lift combined with upper level jet support.
Assuming that the morning convection does not leave too much debris cloudiness over the region, temperatures should soar into the mid to upper 80s on Wed aftn ahead of an approaching cold front. Additional thunderstorms are expected to develop Wed aftn/eve invof the aforementioned cold front. The high instability on Wed may very well compensate for the lower shear values, and storms which dvlp could pose a risk for damaging wind gusts and large hail during the aftn/eve hours. Temperatures will be cooler than average this weekend. Warm front to setup over forecast area on Wednesday morning with winds becoming southeasterly towards mid morning. Warm front to setup over forecast area on Wednesday morning with winds becoming southeasterly by 16z Wednesday then veer to the southwest with thunderstorms developing ahead of next system.
Still, a few localized areas in NW Montana & west central Montana where the growing season is generally underway, such as Columbia Falls, Whitefish, Libby, Yaak & the southern Bitterroot (Hamilton, Stevi) may flirt briefly with temperatures in the low 30s Wednesday morning.
438 PM CDT TUE MAY 10 2016 LATEST LAPS AND SURFACE OBS SHOW DEEPENING LEE CYCLONE OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO. ISENTROPIC ASCENT/MOISTENING ON 300-310K SURFACES ON ITS COOL SIDE SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR EXPANDING PRECIPITATION COVERAGE OVERNIGHT AS THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. WE WILL BE ON THE EAST SIDE OF BUILDING SOUTHWEST CONUS RIDGE FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH NORTHWEST FLOW.
341 PM CDT TUE MAY 10 2016 A CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHEAST MONTANA WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST INTO NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST.
A COLD FRONT WAS MOVING SOUTH THROUGH EASTERN COLORADO AND NORTHWEST KANSAS. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES WEDNESDAY MORNING. BUT IN GENERAL WE EXPECT TOMORROW/S HIGHS TO BE IN THE LOW 80S IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLE TO THE MID 90S AGAIN IN THE SRN ROLLING PLAINS. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE SWINGING OUT OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE HIGH PLAINS AND IT IS POSSIBLE WE COULD SEE SOME LATE DAY T-STORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE DEEPER MOISTURE AXIS RESIDING AROUND THE EASTERN FRINGE OF OUR FORECAST AREA. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO A SMALL TROUGH GRAZING THE REGION IN WRLY FLOW WITHIN THE BASE OF A MUCH LARGER TROUGH AND NRN PLAINS CYCLONE.
403 PM CDT TUE MAY 10 2016 A WARM AND HUMID PATTERN WILL CONTINUE OVER THE ARKLAMISS THROUGH MID WEEK WITH RIDGING ALOFT AND SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW BEING THE GENERAL THEME.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH DRIVING ANOTHER 500 MB TROUGH. BUT A PIECE OF ENERGY WILL ACCOMPANY A COLD FRONT AT THE SFC.
220 PM MST TUE MAY 10 2016 A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A WIND SHIFT THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO EASTERN NEW MEXICO TONIGHT. BRINGING SOME COOLER AIR AND POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS CENTRAL AND EAST.
210 PM EDT TUE MAY 10 2016 HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER ST JAMES BAY AND EXTENDING DOWN INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL MAINTAIN A FEED OF DRIER AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS INTO THE EARLY EVENING. DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS HAS KEPT CEILINGS PREDOMINANTLY ABOVE 5000 FEET SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL MOISTURE ARRIVING IN THE LOW-LEVELS SHOULD DROP CEILINGS BELOW 5000 FEET AROUND 20Z (PER EXTRAPOLATION FROM UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS). WITH STRONG UPPER LEVEL WAVE/TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ACTING AS KICKER SYSTEM.
SOUTHEAST FLOW AROUND RIDGE AXIS JUST TO THE NORTH WILL KEEP LOW TEMPS AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL CONTINUE ITS WEAKENING DURING THE PERIOD. (FROM PREV DISC) AXIS OF ELONGATED MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL SLIDE EAST AND SHOULD PASS EAST OF FLORIDA DURING SAT.
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS EVENING. WITH THE LOSS OF MUCH OF THE HIGH CLOUD FOR WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY.
Still, a few localized areas in NW Montana & west central Montana, where the growing season is generally underway, may flirt briefly with temperatures in the low 30s Wednesday morning.
MAINLY AFTER 10-12Z WHEN MVFR CIGS ATTEMPT TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AHEAD OF INCOMING COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL VEER TO SOUTHWEST TOWARD AND AFTER 12Z IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF COLD FRONT WITH NORTHWEST WIND SHIFT ASSOCIATED WITH FROPA AFFECTING WESTERN OKLAHOMA TERMINALS AFTER 12Z.
1139 AM MDT TUE MAY 10 2016 A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH ALOFT SWEEPS THROUGH THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AS IT ROTATES AROUND THE UPPER LOW MOVING OVER EASTERN MONTANA. TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN TUESDAY. BUT WILL STILL BE NEAR NORMAL OR ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLER FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE OUT OF EASTERN COLORADO AND ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING SOUTH FROM THE LOW OVER SOUTHERN CANADA SWEEPS EAST OF THE ROCKIES AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.
A PREFRONTAL TROUGH IS IN PLACE FROM JUST ACROSS OUR EASTERN CWA. WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE SNW HALF OF THE CW (JUST NORTHWEST OF KMCK AND KGLD). NAM CONTINUES TO SHOW A NARROW AXIS OF HIGHER MU CAPE IN THE 900- 1500 J/KG RANGE IMMEDIATELY ALONG THE COLD FRONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. A TROUGH IS SITTING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND A RIDGE IN THE WESTERN CONUS AT THE START OF THE PERIOD.
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE IS IN CONTROL OF THE KEYS AREA. WHILE A TROUGH IS MOVING OFF THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES.
1240 PM CDT TUE MAY 10 2016 WATER VAPOR/RAP 500MB ANALYSIS SHOWING A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE DAKOTAS THROUGH WESTERN IA/MO. PV- ADVECTION/LIFT/CORRIDOR OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WAS PRODUCING A FAIRLY EXPANSIVE NW-SE BAND OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA. THE THE LOWER/MIDDLE 50S ELSEWHERE. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN LIFTING THIS TROUGH NORTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION WITH SHOWERS TAPERING OFF FROM SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN TOTALLY EXITING BY LATER THIS EVENING. FOCUS THEN TURNS TO VIGOROUS MID-LEVEL TROUGH/SURFACE COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER THREAT MAY BE SOME HEAVIER RAINFALL WITH SLOWER MOVING COLD FRONT PER NAM PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN THE 1.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL LINGER NEAR THE NC AND VA BORDER TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
310 PM CDT TUE MAY 10 2016 THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM IS THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THINK AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES EASTWARD INSTABILITY MAY INCREASE SLIGHTLY INTO THE EVENING HOURS THEN OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH ELEVATED MOISTURE TRANSPORT. HIGHS WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER BEHIND THE COOL FRONT FOR WEDNESDAY. THIS IS SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN SEASONAL NORMS FOR EARLY/MID MAY. THE CLOSED LOW CURRENTLY STALLED BETWEEN AK/HI WILL MOVE TO THE W COAST SAT AND OPEN UP INTO A TROF AND BROADEN OVER THE WRN USA SUN-MON. A STRONG CANADIAN COLD FRONT WILL PLUNGE S CROSSING THE FCST AREA FRI FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRES SAT. BUT THE CORE OF THE COOLER AIR WILL MISS TO THE E.
135 PM EDT TUE MAY 10 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
423 PM EDT TUE MAY 10 2016 SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE AREA THIS EVENING AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE AREA.
LOOK FOR ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL BRING SOME UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND.
4000' marine layer slow to clear today as high pressure aloft warms up the air mass above the marine inversion and onshore gradients remain strong. High pressure aloft will peak Thu leading to additional marine lyr shrinkage. Highs Thu should be the warmest of the week with highs near or slightly above 90 in the warmer valleys and near 80 in the inland parts of the coastal plain.
Afternoon mesoanalysis shows the highest shear values and effective helicity values west of I-65. Temperatures will rise into the 80s in the afternoon with dewpoints rising into the lower to mid 60s. However, wind shear will be much lower than it is today and weak upper level ridging will be building in.
CENTER OF THE LOW HAS STALLED OVER THE GARFIELD/ROSEBUD COUNTY LINE. MDOT CAMERAS ARE STILL SHOWING FREEZING LEVELS LOW ENOUGH THAT SNOW HAS ACCUMULATED AT LUFTBUROUGH HILL AND MALTASOUTH. WITH THE LOW AT ITS WEST MOST POSITIONING AND MOVING NORTHEAST, THIS WILL FORM A NEW TROWAL EXTENDING NORTH/SOUTH FROM PHILLIPS COUNTY THROUGH THE MUSSELSHELL RIVER. AS THE LOW LIFTS INTO SOUTHERN MANITOBA IT IS EXPECTED TO FINALLY MOVE THE TROWAL OFF TO THE EAST AND WITH THE RAINSHOWERS QUICKLY FOLLOWING BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
247 PM MDT TUE MAY 10 2016 AN UPR TROF WL BE AFFECTING THE STATE TONIGHT THROUGH WED. SOME OF THE HIGH ELEVATIONS OF THE ERN MTNS COULD SEE A FEW INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. TEMPS ON WED WL BE COOLER AND GENERALLY A LITTLE BELOW AVERAGE.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WEST COAST AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK ALLOWING FOR TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL READINGS BY THE END OF THE WEEK. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST OVER THE WEEKEND BRINGING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE REGION.
THE HIGH DEWPOINTS WILL PROVIDE AMPLE MOISTURE. /ISSUED 402 AM CDT TUE MAY 10 2016/ A WEAK UPPER RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS ARKANSAS TODAY. AN UPPER LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY AND WEDNESDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE PANHANDLES TONIGHT AND SHIFT WINDS OUT OF THE NORTH. /ISSUED 416 AM CDT TUE MAY 10 2016/ UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE PANHANDLES TODAY TRANSITIONS FROM ZONAL TO SOUTHWESTERLY AS A NORTHERN STREAM CLOSED UPPER LOW AND TROUGH EJECT EASTWARD OUT OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES.
Broad upper trough over the northern and central Rockies will gradually move east Wednesday with a trailing cold front pushing into northeast OK by late afternoon.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS SLOWLY MOVING EAST.
333 PM CDT TUE MAY 10 2016 WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A DEEP UPPER LOW OVER SE MONTANA WITH ANOTHER TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST AND OHIO RIVER VALLEY.
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL AFFECT NORTHERN UTAH TODAY WHILE A COLD FRONT REMAINS STALLED NEAR THE UTAH- ARIZONA BORDER. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEK BRINGING A WARMING AND DRYING TREND. UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS WITH A RIDGE SITUATED JUST OFF OF THE WEST COAST THIS MORNING. WEAK WAVE WILL SWING DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW AND THROUGH FAR NORTHERN UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING THIS AFTERNOON.
Assuming that the morning convection does not leave too much debris cloudiness over the region, temperatures should soar into the mid to upper 80s on Wed aftn ahead of an approaching cold front. Additional thunderstorms are expected to develop Wed aftn/eve invof the aforementioned cold front. The high instability on Wed may very well compensate for the lower shear values, and storms which dvlp could pose a risk for damaging wind gusts and large hail during the aftn/eve hours. Temperatures will be cooler than average this weekend. Could not rule out weakening showers/storms moving into COU Wednesday morning, but it appears that the better chance of storms will occur Wednesday afternoon and evening as the atmosphere destabilizes ahead of an approaching cold front.
BROAD FLAT UPPER RIDGING CONTINUES TO HOLD ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. A POTENT UPPER LOW IS MEANDERING OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS IS OCCURRING WITHIN A BAND OF MODERATE UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLIES ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE UPPER RIDGE. AND SLIGHTLY WARMER OVERNIGHT LOWS THAN HAVE BEEN SEEN THE LAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL FLATTEN FURTHER. RIDGING PERSISTS OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY EXTENDING NORTHWARD OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THIS RIDGING WILL MOVE OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS TROUGHING BEGINS TO DIG INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
233 PM CDT TUE MAY 10 2016 An upper trough is strengthening over the northern Rockies and westerly flow is over the CWA. Temperatures are expected to warm up to almost 10 degrees above normal today as southwest winds aid in compressional warming with upper ridging developing over the region. The previously mentioned upper trough will move over the central conus Wednesday with a cold front moving southward across the TX panhandle.
349 PM CDT TUE MAY 10 2016 WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED AND UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN MT AND AN UPPER HIGH OVER ONTARIO. CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN MT WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND OPEN UP BY THU. MOST OF THE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO STAY WITHIN THE 700 HPA THETA-E RIDGE FOR TONIGHT. MODEST UPPER LEVEL JET WILL BE ON THE EAST SIDE OF UPPER TROUGH. UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWEST TERRITORIES WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN MAN ON THU NIGHT. UPPER TROUGH WILL KEEP THREAT OF PRECIP FOR THU NIGHT/FRI IN THE NORTH.
1208 PM MDT TUE MAY 10 2016 IR IMAGERY SHOWS THE SHOWER ACTIVITY SHIFTING SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN COLORADO AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVING INTO WESTERN WYOMING. THE UPPER TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY WEDNESDAY WITH DRY NORTHWESTERLY LOW TO MIDLVL FLOW ACROSS THE REGION.
352 PM EDT TUE MAY 10 2016 A WARM FRONT NEAR THE OHIO RIVER WILL MEANDER ITS WAY INTO CENTRAL OHIO WEDNESDAY.
1236 PM CDT TUE MAY 10 2016 CLOSED LOW OVER YELLOWSTONE EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A STRONG WAVE EXTENDING FROM EASTERN MONTANA INTO MISSOURI. RIDGE EXTENDING FROM TENNESSEE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. UPPER LOW PROGGED TO SHIFT EAST NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY TODAY WITH AN UPPER JET ROUNDING THE TROUGH AND COMING ACROSS THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE WESTERN SANDHILLS THROUGH THE DAY. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY LIFT NORTHEAST INTO CANADA WEDNESDAY.
AS OF 2 PM MDT IDAHO ZONES WERE STILL WITHIN THE CIRCULATION OF THE UPPER LOW MOVING EWD ACROSS SRN MONTANA.
222 PM EDT TUE MAY 10 2016 AN UPPER LOW LIFTS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND SURFACE FRONT WILL REMAIN JUST NORTH OF FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIODS. UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BE NEARLY ZONAL AS SHORT TERM MODELS SHOW WEAK RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE SOUTHEAST BY 12Z TOMORROW.
AS A WARM FRONT SLOWLY MOVES NORTH THROUGH THE AREA.
430 AM MDT FRI JUN 10 2016 High pressure shifting over the forecast area will keep hot and mainly dry conditions in place for another 24 hours. Will need a little time to get cells firing with bulk of convection delayed until after 1400, but should still see some activity and potential for lightning over the higher peaks. Pattern shift arrives tonight as the ridge shifts east and another long wave trough slides into the western U. Gusty outflow winds to near 50 mph should be expected as gradients tighten a bit with the trough moving into the Great Basin.
348 AM EDT FRI JUN 10 2016 High pressure builds into the region today. A warm front approaches from the west on Saturday.
355 AM CDT FRI JUN 10 2016 Water vapor loop indicated upper level trough/jet streak from southern SASK to eastern MT. Trough will roll upper ridge over the area and send a frontal boundary south across the Red River Valley for today and tonight. Next upper level low off the Pacific northwest will move across SASK and MAN Sun night. Good upper ridge will precede trough as well as thermal ridging. Another cold front will sweep across the area Sun night for another round of potentially strong storms. 500 mb flow pattern is west-southwest as 500 mb high is over the mid Mississippi valley Biggest issue is placement and movement of upper low which moves northeast in the flow into the northern plains.
A surface cold front will sweep across the region today from the west, cooling temperatures below the seasonal average.
416 AM EDT FRI JUN 10 2016 High pressure will prevail today before moving offshore this weekend.
335 AM CDT FRI JUN 10 2016 An upper level height ridge will remain centered over the lower Mississippi River Valley today through Saturday. High temperatures this afternoon will likely reach into the lower and middle 90s with lows tonight ranging from the middle 60s to lower 70s. Stagnant conditions associated with the upper ridge and weak surface winds will likely lead to a period of poor air quality for today.
High pressure and dry air will continue to dominate the weather across Central Alabama today. A few more clouds are possible this afternoon than yesterday, but with increasing thicknesses, afternoon highs will be a few degrees warmer.