Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
/issued 210 PM CDT THU SEP 15 2016/ An upper trough located over the Northern Rockies this morning extends south to Mexico while the ridge over the east extends from the Gulf to the Great Lakes.
745 PM EDT Thu Sep 15 2016 High pressure in the vicinity will provide dry weather and seasonable temperatures through Friday night.
701 PM CDT THU SEP 15 2016 High pressure over the the Great Lakes area and Low pressure over the northern Plains will continue to shift eastward over the upcoming day, shifting the advection of warmer moister air from the south into Illinois. ahead of an approaching cold front.
712 PM EDT THU SEP 15 2016 High pressure will ridge into the forecast area from the north and Julia will linger just off the South Carolina coast through the weekend. Overnight lows will be in the lower 70s to around 70.
1136 PM CDT THU SEP 15 2016 Large upper level trough across the Rockies and plains this afternoon. After morning clouds a dry slot has allowed most of the CWA to see some sun and warmer temps in the 70s with OGA the warm spot at 80. The trough across the far eastern zones will continue to drift east. The exception will be the northwest zones where some clearing will allow for temps to fall into the lower to mid 40s. Northwest winds usher in cooler temps however with sunny skies highs should still top out in the 70s.
As of 9PM, although a front itself is not analyzed, a trough is still evident in surface features extending NE to SW along the western spine of the Cumberland Plateau. The upper ridge axis extending southwest out of the mid Atlantic states into the appalachians should slowly weaken and move northeast with time as an upper trough digs southeast into the central plains on Friday.
1135 PM CDT Thu Sep 15 2016 Deep/vigorous closed low and trough over the entering the Northern Plains from MT/WY per latest water vapor imagery/RAP 500mb analysis. Mid-level low/trough pushes a cold front through the area Friday but with ongoing convection/cloud cover/less cape and lack of good convergence along the front and mid-level pv forcing heading north of the area.
957 PM CDT THU SEP 15 2016 Closed upper low over western ND/SD border will move east tonight and Fri then begin to open up. Water vapor loop indicated two short waves were embedded in the upper low one of which was over eastern WY.
630 PM CDT Thu Sep 15 2016 Deep/vigorous closed low and trough over the entering the Northern Plains from MT/WY per latest water vapor imagery/RAP 500mb analysis. Mid-level low/trough pushes a cold front through the area Friday but with ongoing convection/cloud cover/less cape and lack of good convergence along the front and mid-level pv forcing heading north of the area.
630 PM CDT THU SEP 15 2016 Large upper level trough across the Rockies and plains this afternoon. After morning clouds a dry slot has allowed most of the CWA to see some sun and warmer temps in the 70s with OGA the warm spot at 80. The trough across the far eastern zones will continue to drift east. The exception will be the northwest zones where some clearing will allow for temps to fall into the lower to mid 40s. Northwest winds usher in cooler temps however with sunny skies highs should still top out in the 70s.
1011 PM EDT THU SEP 15 2016 High pressure will ridge into the forecast area from the north and Julia will linger just off the South Carolina coast through the weekend. Overnight lows will be in the lower 70s to around 70 and winds will become light.
1010 PM EDT Thu Sep 15 2016 High pressure in the vicinity will provide dry weather and seasonable temperatures through Friday night.
700 PM MDT THU SEP 15 2016 Showers and isolated thunder will continue to diminish in intensity and move east into central Nebraska this evening as the upper level trough axis moves east of Chadron and Sidney. Cooler at most locations based on thickness trends.
High pressure over the the Great Lakes area and Low pressure over the northern Plains will continue to shift eastward over the upcoming day, shifting the advection of warmer moister air from the south into Illinois. ahead of an approaching cold front.
WV imagery indicates an upper level trough of low pressure moving eastward across the Northern Plains. Near the surface, a weak Pacific cold front is pushing slowly southeastward across northwest Kansas. These storms will be initiating along the weak cold front/surface convergence zone. The aforementioned cold front will move into the area tonight, probably reaching the southeast 1/3 or so of the DDC forecast area by midday Friday.
714 PM EDT Thu Sep 15 2016 Quiet conditions can be expected into tonight as high pressure brings dry weather to the area along with near normal temperatures.
823 PM CDT THU SEP 15 2016 Radars showing shower/storm development out west this evening with a short wave trough kicking northeast across South Dakota through the night. While the cold front exits east pretty quickly Friday morning, chances for showers and even a few thunderstorms will remain as the 500MB low moves over eastern ND 15-18Z Friday.
1050 PM EDT THU SEP 15 2016 High pressure over New England tonight will move offshore Friday.
A second zone will be across northern Oklahoma as an MCS/effective cold front approaches from the north. Water vapor loop early this afternoon shows an upper low across norther Rockies moving eastward onto the northern Plains. Low level response this far south has been subtle, but light southerly winds have returned to the area as pressures fall across the High Plains. Surface observations indicate lee cyclogenesis in favored region north of the Raton Mesa in southeast Colorado and short term models shift the low east into Southwest Kansas tonight into early and weakens as upper opens and moves northeast into Ontario. Thunderstorms may form near and ahead of a cold front across the northwest portion of the area tomorrow in an area with stronger mid-upper flow may support more organized/sustained storms and if enough destabilization occurs isolated severe thunderstorms may occur.
1154 PM CDT Thu Sep 15 2016 A weak low over the coastal waters will move west and evolve into a weak coastal trough. The trough will serve as a focus for shra/tsra along the immediate coast between 08-10z. Water vapor imagery shows a weak upper level trough situated over the Western Gulf, and its orientation should help to bring increased moisture levels this weekend. 20 inches, with K index values in the lower 30s. The 00z LCH sounding specifically showed good saturation at 850mb, most likely due to the influence of the coastal troughing.
WITH TEMPS PUSHING INTO THE LOWER 80S FOR MOST AREAS. IT WILLBE HUMID WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING ALONG THE OHIO VALLEY WITH A WEAK TRAILING COLD FRONT APPROACHING MID TN FROM THE WEST. FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS A COLD FRONT STARTS TO SLOWLY WORK ITS WAY INTO THE MID-STATE LATE TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT GETS HUNG UP FOR SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS THE MID-STATE ON MONDAY.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS AROUND THROUGH THE EVENING AND INTO TONIGHT.
125 PM PDT SUN MAY 1 2016 LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES WILL WEAKEN.
At the upper levels, a trough was stretched from the Great Lakes into the central Plains and then into the SW CONUS with multiple waves in the flow with the overall pattern progressing little tonight.
TEMPS CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER 80S FOR MANY AREAS. WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.
401 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016 LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY. THE LOWEST POPS SHOULD BE IN THE SE. A SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE TROUGH/ VORT MAX IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS POSSIBLE MCS. THE DAY TIME ON MONDAY WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE IF ANY CONVECTION CAN DEVELOP AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES TO THE SOUTH AND SOME MEAGER HEATING HAPPENS. WINDS COULD GET GUSTY /20S/ OVER THE LAURELS AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY. GENERALLY UNSETTLED WEATHER IN STORE AS A COOL UPPER LOW DROPS THROUGH MIDWEEK AND SETTLES NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC COAST FOR SEVERAL DAYS AFTER THAT.
WITH LIGHT RAIN SPREADING ACROSS THE LOWER KEYS AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.
208 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016 A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MONDAY AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT.
THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT UPPER RIDGING REMAINS ACROSS THE PAC NW INTO THE CNDN ROCKIES. WITH AN UPPER LOW ACROSS THE DESERT SW SETTING UP A REX BLOCKING PATTERN. COMPACT UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO DROP SOUTH ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE RIDGE MONDAY.
543 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016 LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AND WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
Winds will generally be from a northerly direction through tomorrow as a dome of high pressure sits across the area. Below normal temperatures continue with lows tonight ranging from the lower 30s across portions of west central Kansas to lower 40s across portions of south central Kansas. Highs tomorrow look to reach into the lower 60s.
THE NORTH SHOULD SEE MORE SUN AND THEREFORE SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS. RIDGING TRIES TO PUSH EAST ON TUE BUT EFFECTIVELY JUST TIGHTENS THE THERMAL GRADIENT FROM NORTHEAST TO SW.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES EXTENDED WELL NORTH INTO NORTHERN ALBERTA/BRITISH COLUMBIA. MEANWHILE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH WAS MOVING INTO HUDSON BAY FROM THE NORTH. A LARGE COOL AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM EXTENDED ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA AND OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. AS THE CURRENT COOL HIGH PRESSURE EXITS TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT. WARMER AIR UP TO H850 WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S ON MONDAY DESPITE INCREASED CLOUD COVER.
rain chances will become possible across the region through tonight as an upper level low shifts eastward. an upper low was positioned over Arizona and New Mexico while a second upper low was located over Kansas and Nebraska. Southerly upper flow from the Arizona upper low was converging with the northerly upper flow from the Kansas upper low. The better precip chances continue to look to be tonight into Monday as the Arizona upper low moves into the Southern Plains.
A COLD FRONT JUST TO THE WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER LATE THIS AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT SLOWLY EAST TONIGHT AND MONDAY.
A NEW COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE. AND THIS IS WHERE THE HIGHEST PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CURRENTLY RESIDE.
CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL EVENTUALLY DEPART THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH OF WISCONSIN CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST. WHICH WAS 1F WARMER THAN THE 00Z VERSION AND GAVE A LOW OF 39. HAVE GONE CLOSER TO THE WARMER GFS MOS FORECAST LOWS TONIGHT.
336 PM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016 THE OLD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER NE AZ WILL GRADUALLY FILL AND SLIDE EAST OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BRING ONE MORE DRY AND WARM DAY MONDAY.
700 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016 A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MONDAY AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT.
1246 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016 Upper-level low pressure continues to spin across the Central Plains this morning. with latest surface obs showing an inverted trough extending northwest across our area from parent low pressure now centered just north of STL. Fcst models all in general agreement that lgt shwrs will develop later this morning as weak frontogenesis combines with increased forcing for ascent as the upper low inches closer to the area. As this upper low tracks east. This combined with abundant cloud cover should lead to noticeably cooler temps today with many places north of I-70 struggling to reach the 60 degree mark. Overnight lows should fall into the lower to middle 40s across much of the forecast area.
Currently have a 3-4kft cloud deck over the region along with gusty NE winds thanks to a strong cold front that moved through early this morning. /issued 349 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016/ The cold front that was hanging around the area yesterday will get a good push south as high pressure builds into eastern New Mexico and West Texas this morning. The strong cold air advection will be aided by increasing clouds to give much cooler highs today than we have seen in quite a while. Models have been trending lighter with QPF amounts on rainfall today likely due to the upper low producing the rain weakening as it moves northeast into the plains later today.
240 PM PDT SUN MAY 1 2016 A departing low pressure system will bring the slight chance of showers and thunderstorms through this evening across interior areas.
317 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016 LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN IOWA CLOSED OFF FROM THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN CONUS. WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO LOUISIANA. THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH EAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
316 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. COULD DROP TO THE LOW 20S. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE DAKOTAS LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY. THE HIGHS SHOULD FROM THE UPPER 50S DOWNTOWN.
200 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016 The unseasonably strong cold front has already made it to near the Rio Grande with scattered very light showers still across the E-NE PB. After a cool start Mon AM (widespread lows in the 40s) some afternoon insolation will serve to push high temps into the M60s-L70s for most areas, warmer along the Rio Grande.
144 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016 PASSING WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING RAIN THIS MORNING. THE SURFACE WARM FRONT IS WELL TO OUR SOUTHWEST. BUT A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDS ROUGHLY FROM LAKE ERIE THROUGH LAKE ONTARIO TO FAR NORTHER NEW YORK. WITH COOL STABLE AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS.
309 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016 LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AND WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
/ISSUED 345 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016/ A DISORGANIZED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.
THEN A RETURN TO WARMER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AS THE PATTERN BEGINS TO CHANGE.
THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN SHOULD START TO ABATE MONDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTH MISSISSIPPI.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVERNIGHT. A DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY DAY IS FORECAST FOR MONDAY WITH THE AREA OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION.
It appears the low cloud deck will persist over all southeast New Mexico and west texas overnight, but will mainly stay low VFR. /issued 200 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016/ The unseasonably strong cold front has already made it to near the Rio Grande with scattered very light showers still across the E-NE PB. After a cool start Mon AM (widespread lows in the 40s) some afternoon insolation will serve to push high temps into the M60s-L70s for most areas, warmer along the Rio Grande.
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS FROM A WEAKENING SYSTEM WILL PASS OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE ALOFT WILL SWEEP INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THIS TROUGH AXIS. AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SWINGS EAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER TOMORROW BUT STILL BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOLER THAN NORMAL. THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO PASS EAST OF OUR REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON, BUT THE FRONT WILL REMAIN IN OUR VICINITY.
WEAKENING WAVE TO BRING ADDITIONAL SNOW AND RAIN TO SOME AREAS UPPER LOW PRESSURE AREA VISIBLE ON SATELLITE PICTURES SPINNING OVER NORTHEAST ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON. UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY FILL. TEMPERATURES WILL BE DIPPING DOWN AROUND AND BELOW THE FREEZING MARK IN MANY AREAS. SINCE THE GROWING SEASON HAS ALREADY STARTED ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS DUE TO THE WARMTH EARLIER THIS MONTH. WARMER AND DRIER. AT LEAST THEY WILL BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES WARMER THAN THEY WERE TODAY.
WITH MUCH COOLER WEATHER ANTICIPATED HEADING THROUGH THE FIRST WEEK OF MAY.
/TONIGHT/ UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL IOWA. AT ONSET LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND WEAK FORCING MOVING OUT OF THE SWRN CONUS TROUGH MAY PRODUCE SOME WEAK SHOWERS INTO PEAK HEATING MONDAY. HOWEVER A STRONGER WAVE AND ASSOCIATED FORCING WILL PASS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES LATE TUE REINFORCING THE APPALACHIAN LONG WAVE TROUGH AND MAY JUST BRUSH NERN SECTIONS WITH SHOWERS TUE NIGHT. THE MIDDLE OF THE WORK WEEK LOOKS UNEVENTFUL WITH A LONG WAVE RIDGE APPROACHING THE MO VALLEY AND IA IN WEAK SURFACE FLOW. THIS MAY INTERACT WITH THE TRAILING END OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRIVEN BY A CANADIAN SHORT WAVE WHICH SHOULD INTERSECT WITH THE SURFACE REFLECTION OF A LARGE MEANDERING ERN CONUS CLOSED LOW.
124 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016 LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL BUILD IN MONDAY.
A WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTH ACROSS SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A WARMING TREND THROUGH MIDWEEK. BEFORE THE NEXT PACIFIC TROUGH MOVES INLAND LATE IN THE WEEK.
WITH A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW AND TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. A WEAK COLD FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH SOUTH THROUGH NORTHERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS OVERNIGHT. LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTH WINDS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AND 80S.
FRIES LOW PRESSURE WILL BE OVER NORTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA AROUND SUNRISE. WHILE RAIN WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY DURING THE MORNING WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE LOW. A WAVE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE TRAILING COLD FRONT.
408 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016 A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO TONIGHT.
A FRONT WILL REMAIN STATIONARY ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT THEN LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH MONDAY EVENING WITH MULTIPLE SURFACE WAVES MOVING ACROSS THE AREA.
251 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016 THE UPPER PATTERN FEATURED AN UPPER LOW IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING INTO QUEBEC AND A RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC INTO ALBERTA. THE TROUGH/RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST TODAY INTO MONDAY. THESE CLOUDS WILL STICK AROUND THIS MORNING BUT SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTH AS THE LOW MOVES FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST. IT WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER TODAY FOR MOST AREAS. IT WILL BE COOLER AROUND LAKE SUPERIOR WITH AN EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUING. MONDAY WILL BE WARMER YET WITH HIGHS FOR MANY AREAS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE SIXTIES. EVEN AREAS CLOSER TO LAKE SUPERIOR SHOULD BE WARMER AS WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE WESTERLY. A BROAD CANADIAN UPPER TROF OVER THE CENTRAL U. THEN A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL FINISH OFF THE PERIOD.
559 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016 Clouds will continue to move southeast and will overspread the area by mid evening as upper trough back over eastern Nebraska drops southeast into Missouri and Illinois. Some isolated showers may begin to develop toward morning underneath the upper trough over central and northeast Missouri.
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY GENERAL BROAD LW TROF ACROSS THE CONUS WITH A COUPLE OF EMBEDDED TROF/CLOSED LOWS STIRRING THE POT WITHIN. THE LOW MOST SIGNIFICANT FOR THE FA IS QUITE BROAD AND LOCATIONS OVR THE SRN GREAT BASIN AND MOJAVE DESERT REGION. UPR RIDGE IS ACTUALLY FOLDING INTO NRN PORTIONS OF THE STATE. TODAY WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED BY THE FOLDING RIDGE AND DRYING ACROSS THE FA FROM N TO S THROUGH THE DAY. WITH HIGHS REACHING INTO THE 40S TO MID 50S ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS TODAY. WHILE AN AMPLIFYING RIDGE BUILDS OVR THE WRN CONUS. AS AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE WEST.
1139 AM PDT SUN MAY 1 2016 A departing low pressure system will bring the slight chance of showers and thunderstorms today across the mountains, foothills, and antelope valley.
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING ANOTHER BOUT OF RAIN TOMORROW.
FAIRLY HIGH DEWPOINTS AND TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 70S CLIMBING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S LATER TODAY SHOULD ALLOW CAPE VALUES BETWEEN 1500 AND 2000 J/KG.
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN CANADA. ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS AND INTO NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS LOCATED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL CONTINUE ITS MOVEMENT EAST. NEAR TO SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE PARTICULARLY FOR LOCATIONS WHERE CLOUDS CLEAR TONIGHT. MUCH WARMER AND PLEASANT WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED. LOCAL OBSERVERS INDICATE SNOW HAS ALMOST COMPLETELY MELTED SO AFTER TODAY'S WARMER AND BREEZY WEATHER.
218 PM PDT SUN MAY 1 2016 A departing low pressure system will bring the slight chance of showers and thunderstorms through this evening across interior areas.
205 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016 HYDRO LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SHOWERS THAT ARE MOVING ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN.
310 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016 LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY. THE LOWEST POPS SHOULD BE IN THE SE. A SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE TROUGH/ VORT MAX IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS POSSIBLE MCS. THE DAY TIME ON MONDAY WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE IF ANY CONVECTION CAN DEVELOP AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES TO THE SOUTH AND SOME MEAGER HEATING HAPPENS. WINDS COULD GET GUSTY /20S/ OVER THE LAURELS AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY.
THE HIGH RES HRRR SHOWS A DIURNAL TREND WITH THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
246 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016 UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS WESTERN IA IS SLOWLY LUMBERING TO THE EAST TODAY. SFC FLOW FROM THE NE LEAD TO COOLER TEMPS AND DRIER AIR ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW LUMBERING TO THE EAST IS THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM. TEND TO AGREE WITH THE CAMS AND AS SUCH HAVE SLOWED ON THE PROGRESSION OF THE LOW AND RAIN LEAVING THE AREA. SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS AND SOME SUN RETURNS TO THE AREA. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SYNOPTIC SCALE ASCENT LATER DURING THE PERIOD AS AN ELONGATED TROF FINALLY STARTS TO MOVE TO THE EAST AS A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE BUILDS IN.
257 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016 An upper level trough is currently located across Iowa this afternoon.
129 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016 MID-LVL Q-VECT CONV AND COLUMN MOISTENING ON PERIPHERY OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLIDING E THROUGH THE MIDWEST ALONG WITH MODERATE 700-600 MB FGEN IN RESPONSE TO COUPLED UPPER JET STRUCTURE OVER AREA HAS SUPPORTED SOME SCT -SHRA OVER NE WI EARLY THIS MORNING. MID-HIGH CLOUDS ON PERIPHERY OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL GRADUALLY THIN LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FM NW OF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WITH MIN TEMPS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30F OVER THE INTERIOR. TO THE LOWER TO MID 30S NEAR THE GREAT LAKES. A DECAYING MID-LEVEL RIDGE TRACKING SE ACROSS THE CWA ON MONDAY WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT ALONG WITH DIURNAL CUMULUS INLAND.
238 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016 UNSTABLE TODAY WITH COLD FRONT SINKING SOUTHEAST TONIGHT.
LOW PRESSURE WILL BE OVER NORTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA AROUND SUNRISE. WHILE RAIN WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY DURING THE MORNING WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE LOW. A WAVE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE TRAILING COLD FRONT.
225 PM PDT SUN MAY 1 2016 A departing low pressure system will bring the slight chance of showers and thunderstorms through this evening across interior areas.
WEAK/STALLING COLD FRONT IS STILL DRAPED ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES AT THIS HOUR.
153 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016 AVIATION/HYDRO LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SHOWERS THAT ARE MOVING ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN.
540 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016 LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS IOWA AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF AND END BY LATE THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 30S ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN TO THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 OVER NORTHEAST IOWA.
SOLID RADIATIONAL COOLING IS ANTICIPATED AS THE WINDS GO LIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVERHEAD. AND WARMER TO THE EAST. OTHER SUB-FREEZING LOWS WILL ENCOMPASS MOST OF THE PLATTE /NORTH AND SOUTH/ RIVER VALLEYS OVERNIGHT AS THE LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW AND TOPOGRAPHIC DRAINAGE IS EXPECTED. THE TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WARMER. MOISTURE IS CONFINED TO THE H75 TO H5 LAYER WITH THE LOWER LEVEL FAIRLY DRY.
154 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016 A COUPLE OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL PROVIDE RAIN OVER THE REGION INTO EARLY MONDAY. A DIGGING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL HELP SUPPORT A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG THE EAST COAST.
345 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016 A DISORGANIZED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.