Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1058 PM EST Mon Dec 12 2016 High pressure will build east from the Ohio Valley into Pennsylvania tonight.
A low pressure system over the Great Lakes will push eastward helping the remnant boundary move away from our region and allow drier air to push over the peninsula.
518 PM CST Mon Dec 12 2016 A large upper level low pressure area in central Canada will move slowly southeast throughout the short term.
935 PM EST Mon Dec 12 2016 A cold front will become nearly stationary across Georgia and coastal South Carolina tonight. The front will move back north as a warm front Tuesday.
A weak cold front will move through the area Tuesday, w/flow veering to the east near the end of the forecast period. /issued 110 PM CST Mon Dec 12 2016/ Broad upper trough extending down from Canada will spin over the Eastern US as upper ridging grows over the West the next few days. Late in the week the ridge will slide eastward as a new upper trough moves over the NW coast.
A weak high pressure ridge over the area will provide light winds and the low levels are quite moist for this time of the year. Surface dew points rose into the lower 70s along the Space and Treasure Coasts behind the east coast sea breeze boundary.
516 PM CST Mon Dec 12 2016 Weak high pressure of 1022 mb was over central MO/IL this afternoon had decreased the stratocumulus clouds over eastern IL. An arctic cold front over central MN into northern Nebraska, will track southeast to near the IL river by 12Z/Tue and will race southeast of IL by 18Z Tue.
522 PM CST Mon Dec 12 2016 Latest 20z surface analysis shows cold front extending from southern Canada into northeast Nebraska. A frontogenetical band of snow has developed along the cold front per the latest mosaic radar. Surface cold front is expected to move across the forecast area this evening.
Winds will be weak and variable as the weak frontal boundary continues to dissipate and weak high pressure develops. Light winds will gradually veer out of the SW to NW through Tuesday morning ahead of the next approaching cold front that will move through outside of the current TAF period. Clouds are increasing along the Lower Texas coast in the warm sector where models indicate that isentropic upglide around 300K level was occurring. Dewpoint temperatures were in the upper 60s to lower 70s over the Gulf waters, while water temps were in the lower 60s along the coast and southern bays and the upper 50s for northern bays.
A strong cold front is expected to track rapidly south across the local area this afternoon through tonight. the airmass will be significantly cooler.
The stronger of these systems - a closed low over Nunavut - will establish general troughiness over the eastern 2/3rds of the US over the next 24 hours. The second, a closed low slowly moving south along the coast of British Columbia will open up a tap of moisture from the Pacific Ocean into the Great Basin and Central Rockies. Surprised to see how much further north forecast models are bringing the energy from this closed low off of BC in today's 12z runs starting Tuesday night.
547 PM CST Mon Dec 12 2016 Another day with a cold front moving through the Plains. The main system is well off to the north in Canada which helps swoop in cooler air once more. The upper levels indicate a zonal flow regime while the lower levels indicate a ridge to follow in advance of the system moving onshore in the middle of the week. In the wake of the cold front, highs will be in the 30s for most of the week.
555 PM CST Mon Dec 12 2016 A few mid-level clouds are not doing much to dispel the milder day across the area, but the surface cold front already is impinging. An 850mb ridge was noted from central NE/central KS into OK/TX. With the cold front, a sharp thermal gradient was noted, with temperatures falling 20-30 degrees over the width of about 50 miles.
Shower activity has moved well off to the east, and cloud cover is all that remains from the upper trough and weak cold front. A more broad upper trough over the Great Lakes will drag a cold front through the region, which will not only kick out the smaller wave bringing precip Tuesday, but will also bring another shot of Arctic air.
429 PM CST Mon Dec 12 2016 The cold front will continue to make its way southeast through the forecast area this afternoon, and eventually stall across my south near the Highway 84 corridor. Adequate winds shear, but marginal instability, across mainly South Central and Southeast Mississippi Tuesday afternoon, could result in at least a few strong storms capable of producing some gusty winds and perhaps some hail, primarily along and south of the Highway 84 corridor.
545 PM CST Mon Dec 12 2016 Light southerly winds early this evening will swing around to the north behind a cold front early Tuesday morning, with the initial wind shift from 08-11Z. An embedded trough will pass to our north as it rotates about a low in northern Manitoba. There continues to be a fair temperature gradient from east to west with the cooler temperatures out east. A cold front will enter the panhandle this evening and should largely be through the entire CWFA by sunrise Tuesday.
A weak warm front will lift North overnight spreading the conditions over the Four State Region. Light and variable winds associated with the surface boundary and associated low pressure system as they move North becoming Northerly on Tuesday. /issued 328 PM CST Mon Dec 12 2016/ Cold front difficult to make out this afternoon, but a best guess based on weak temp/dew point gradient puts it from between Jacksonville and Nacogdoches, extending ewd to just n of Natchitoches.
The models suggest the surface wave shifting east into southeast TN or north GA by afternoon dragging a cold front back southeast.
/issued 110 PM CST Mon Dec 12 2016/ Broad upper trough extending down from Canada will spin over the Eastern US as upper ridging grows over the West the next few days. Late in the week the ridge will slide eastward as a new upper trough moves over the NW coast.
611 PM CST Mon Dec 12 2016 Updated for 00Z aviation discussion 00Z TAF discussion: The cold front was nearly stationary across se MS at 00Z and HBG will see a continuation of -RA tonight. The cold front will continue to make its way southeast through the forecast area this afternoon, and eventually stall across my south near the Highway 84 corridor. Adequate winds shear, but marginal instability, across mainly South Central and Southeast Mississippi Tuesday afternoon, could result in at least a few strong storms capable of producing some gusty winds and perhaps some hail, primarily along and south of the Highway 84 corridor.
Southeast Oklahoma saw a bit more sun and were able to climb into the lower 50s. A cold front currently working its way into northwest Kansas and eastern Colorado will bring the next push of cold air into the Plains.
A large upper level low pressure area in central Canada will move slowly southeast throughout the short term.
Strong winds will continue in the higher mountains over night but highly sheared flow will not have much amplification in any mountain wave tonight. Spatial cross-sections show limited moisture in the high country tonight and Tuesday. Best chc of snow will be along the higher west facing slopes north of interstate 70. Otherwise, areas of blowing snow associated with strong winds will be the primary issue over the higher mountain passes. A cold front will push into the region from the north and east Tuesday morning.
948 PM EST Mon Dec 12 2016 Rapidly moving low pressure will spread some light snow over the Upper Ohio Region on Tuesday, and will usher in an arctic airmass for late week. Changes for the late eve update involved some adjustments to cloud cover as the overcast south of PIT has diminished with eastward sliding high pressure. Otherwise, a cold front has completed a sweep of the area this evening. Nevertheless, moisture in the boundary layer may be sufficient for some freezing drizzle over the ridge zones; hence, a freezing rain advisory colloboratively remains in effect tonight for those areas.
On Tuesday, winds will shift to the north with a weak cold frontal passage. Light southerly winds tonight will bring warmer temperatures to all of the forecast area overnight with morning lows mostly in the mid 40s - compared to lows in the mid 30s recorded this morning. Winds will remain light but will begin shifting to the north tomorrow morning as another weak cold frontal boundary begins to move south through West Central Texas. With the frontal boundary arriving later in the day south of I-20, the central CWA will have warmer highs than yesterday with temperatures in the mid to upper 60s. The southern CWA will have even warmer highs in the upper 60s to the lower 70s.
A weakened ridge axis extends west across the Florida Peninsula. Temperatures are in the lower to mid 70s, with dewpoints only a few ticks lower.
819 PM EST Mon Dec 12 2016 Rapidly moving low pressure will spread some light snow over the Upper Ohio Region on Tuesday, and will usher in an arctic airmass for late week. A cold front will complete a sweep of the area this evening, but measurable precip is not anticipated given a shallow mixing layer and lack of moisture in the mid levels. Nevertheless, moisture in the boundary layer may be sufficient for some freezing drizzle over the ridge zones; hence, a freezing rain advisory remains in effect tonight for those areas.
654 PM EST Mon Dec 12 2016 A cold front crossing the Ohio Valley will move through the area tonight and become nearly stationary across Georgia. The front will move back north as a warm front Tuesday.
This stalled boundary will be the focus for additional shower development Tuesday as low pressure combines with upper level impulses.
730 PM EST Mon Dec 12 2016 Low pressure will exit across the maritimes overnight. Weak high pressure will build across the region on Tuesday.
Frontal wave is developing over the Lower Mississippi Valley at mid evening and will be shifting northeast through the overnight hours.
Both low and upper level cloud cover continues to stream into the region in advance of an approaching upper trof and associated surface front. Tonight will see a cold front currently west of the DFW/FTW metroplex bring some late night showers and isolated thunderstorms.
Radars show some light returns at on Minot in VCP-31 which could show up as light freezing drizzle if it reaches the ground since there are no seeder ice crystals. Southerly flow along the trough has maintained cloudy conditions for a good part of the day over the James River Valley.
Suspect some areas along the I-95 corridor will see their lowest temperatures the next few hours before the easterly flow manages to bring the warmer marine layer onshore.
Current thinking for the metro area is the 2-4" range with the higher end on the north side and the lower end to the south. Model soundings from the HRRR, RAP, NAM, GFS all seem to differ on low level thermal profiles hovering around the critical freezing mark and just how cool the surface will be. A deep layer from 700mb down to the surface looks to hover near that freezing mark so very slight fluctuations will cause big difference in P-type and hence impacts. We are leaning to the slightly cooler side based on latest observations and some of the hi-res guidance like the HRRR has trended to more snow accumulation than it was indicating earlier today.
826 PM EST Tue Nov 22 2016 High pressure will build east over the region tonight and Wednesday.
For tomorrow, a short wave ridge moves across the region early, but upper level winds quickly back to the southwest in the afternoon as a strong fast moving trough approaches from the west. So we anticipate an inch or less at the lower elevations and 3-6 inches or so common at the higher elevations.
Winds will be gusty out of the northwest through the evening but gradually decrease through the night as high pressure settles in from the NW. /Issued 336 PM CST Tue Nov 22 2016/ Clouds are making their way south across portions of the Panhandles as a 700 hPa trough axis continues to move to the east. Light northwesterly winds during the overnight will allow temperatures to drop to below freezing across most of the Panhandles with mid 30s in the SE TX Panhandle.
A strong cold front is expected to bring accumulating snow to the Northern Rockies on Wednesday. The higher terrain of the Purcell and Cabinet Mountains could see 6 to 12 inches with even more possible on the highest peaks.
547 PM EST Tue Nov 22 2016 High pressure will maintain dry weather tonight before rain chances return with crossing low pressure Wednesday through Thanksgiving. High pressure should maintain dry weather tonight, though a gradual increase in mid and high clouds is expected with warm advection aloft. Model soundings showing a pretty stout mid-level layer of dry air that will be tough to overcome as the warm front lifts north.
Water vapor satellite imagery loop shows a large negatively tilted mid/upper level trough with a moisture plume on the eastern flank of the trough associated with a cold front that has already spread rain inland this afternoon. The cold front will move rapidly across the forecast area tonight and Wednesday morning. Rain and mountain snow will spread across the region beginning in western sections of CWA this evening with precipitation reaching the Lower Columbia Basin and the Blue Mountains and the Wallowa Mountains by or soon after midnight.
946 PM EST Tue Nov 22 2016 High pressure tonight. A warm front Wednesday.
919 PM EST Tue Nov 22 2016 High pressure will maintain dry weather tonight before rain chances return with crossing low pressure Wednesday through Thanksgiving. This should gradually erode as the center of high pressure moves over Western PA tonight. Model soundings show low level dry air that will be tough to overcome as the warm front lifts north.
937 PM CST Tue Nov 22 2016 Added slight chance for freezing drizzle north central tonight based on Minot radar and the Bufkit soundings suggesting no ice crystal seeding. Radars show some light returns at on Minot in VCP-31 which could show up as light freezing drizzle if it reaches the ground since there are no seeder ice crystals. Southerly flow along the trough has maintained cloudy conditions for a good part of the day over the James River Valley.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 38 67 51 67 / 0 20 40 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 35 63 50 66 / 0 10 40 10 Oak Ridge, TN 34 62 48 64 / 0 20 50 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 26 62 40 62 / 0 10 50 20.
High pressure is sitting squarely in the middle of the cloud deck and we have calm winds for the most part in our area. expect some patchy fog to develop in the area and with the below freezing temps bridges and patios could be icy by morning. First, with an upper ridge pushing into western Montana today, NW flow aloft is keeping a front still over the CWA. Low clouds and a cooler airmass lies to the NE while sunshine and milder conditions to the SW. The big question tonight will be if fog forms between the cold front and the stratus deck. Wednesday, the ridge flattens a bit but moves east and provides another mild day to the area.
401 PM CST Tue Nov 22 2016 A cold front continues to progress southeastward across northwest Oklahoma this afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop as the cold front intersects low to mid 60Fs dew points across southeast Oklahoma. Cooler weather is expected tomorrow behind the cold front.
557 PM CST Tue Nov 22 2016 Upper closed low associated with trough through northern plains. Gulf of Alaska low and ridge over western CONUS and ridge over eastern Conus with strong closed low over the northeast Conus. This will keep overnight lows warm /lower 30s/ across our eastern zones, but across the west where the increasing subsidence and clearing is anticipated, lows in the lower to mid 20s are forecast. The high temperature forecast for Wednesday is a product of near term numerical guidance with a BC blend.
552 PM CST Tue Nov 22 2016 We could see some re-development of showers/isolated storms across southeast Kansas into the evening hours with-in low level moist axis, as upper trough axis still west of the area provides lift over the area tonight. A cold front will race southeast across the area tonight as the upper level system moves to the northeast.
621 PM EST Tue Nov 22 2016 High pressure tonight. A warm front Wednesday.
523 PM EST Tue Nov 22 2016 High pressure will build east over the region tonight and Wednesday.
This will continue overnight, with cirrus deck insulating the lower levels. /issued 305 PM CST Tue Nov 22 2016/ SHORT TERM (Tonight through Wednesday Night): Upper level trough extending from the Central Plains through the Southern Rockies to continue moving northeast riding over the strong ridge over Florida. The associated surface cold front, currently stationary over Northwest Texas, is expected to move slowly southeast through Wednesday. GFS and ECMWF are virtually dry, showing some better chances Wed night, while the NAM wants to deepen the pooling moisture Wednesday afternoon with moderate to high pops across the Lower Valley.
The lowest visibilities will be in the Sisseton Hills region. Temps have largely remained above freezing today as well, which has greatly limited any impacts of icing. The only exception is along the Coteau ridge where temps are hovering around 31 or 32 degrees. Although, feel the biggest impacts from any drizzle or freezing drizzle remain in and around the Coteau region. Will have to monitor fog overnight, especially over the east within the trough axis where winds will be lightest and moisture pooling with be the greatest.
At KABI and KSJT, southwest to west winds will shift to north with a weak cold frontal passage tonight (05Z at KABI and 07Z- 08Z at KSJT). /issued 255 PM CST Tue Nov 22 2016/ (Tonight and Wednesday) A cold front will push across West Central Texas, during the next 18 hours, and bring cooler temperatures and light winds from the northwest or north.
822 PM EST Tue Nov 22 2016 High pressure ridge remains anchored down the SE U. coast through SE GA and NE FL while a weak coastal trof attempts to form offshore. Coastal Trof will slowly make its way closer to the coast on Wednesday and provide for isolated shower activity along the NE FL coastal counties inland to the St. The increase in cloud cover will keep max temps generally in the lower 70s near the coast and middle 70s further inland. Winds still generally out of the NE around 15 knots with the coastal trof and seas 3-4 ft and will remain that way until coastal trof pushes onshore on Wed PM with winds becoming East and seas 3-5 ft.
631 PM EST Tue Nov 22 2016 High pressure will maintain dry weather tonight before rain chances return with crossing low pressure Wednesday through Thanksgiving. High pressure should maintain dry weather tonight, though a gradual increase in mid and high clouds is expected with warm advection aloft. Model soundings showing a pretty stout mid-level layer of dry air that will be tough to overcome as the warm front lifts north.
A fast moving disturbance will bring gusty winds to much of the region Wednesday with north winds persisting along the lower Colorado River Valley Thanksgiving Day. Quite a bit of high clouds streaming across the area this evening out ahead of the next upper trough which will move through Wednesday. It appears that much of the high cloud cover is remaining fairly thin so I think the current forecast looks alright.
631 PM EST Tue Nov 22 2016 Aviation A mix of rain and snow will move into the region late tonight and may briefly be mixed with freezing rain.
Cyclone centered over eastern Kansas this evening with rain area out across Arkansas, southeast Missouri and far western Tennessee trying to work east into our area but air mass is so dry about all we are seeing is patchy virga falling out of 12 thousand foot base of altocumulus clouds. Cyclone out in the central plains this evening is being slowed in eastward progress by a rather strong upper ridge that extends from Gulf into the Great Lakes Region.
A second line of convection will be expected ahead of the cold front overnight to Wednesday morning. The cold front is forecast to be in central AR around 12Z Wednesday, with a storms ahead of the front, then a wind shift to the west to northwest and a drying trend through the day Wednesday. Winds will become west to northwest behind the cold front on Wednesday.
but should start to see MVFR cigs develop after 03Z over E TX as sct convection ongoing now becomes more numerous well ahead of a weak pacific front and upper trough that will advance E across Wcntrl/N TX.
840 PM CST Tue Nov 22 2016 First band of the wintry mix produced a fair amount of sleet in the higher reflectivity over southeast MN/western WI. However, the GFS/RAP remain cooler. If temps/dew points remain near freezing, some freezing rain will continue to be possible. Given the uncertainty in the exact thermal profiles, with changes in the lower atmospheric profiles of even a degree potentially impacting precip types, confidence is lowest in that area along/north of I-90 corridor. Brief surface ridging will build into the area Wednesday Night into Thanksgiving Day.
Cold front is just north of KMAF, and will veer winds to the NW overnight, and decrease during the day Wednesday. A weak cold front will usher in slightly cooler temperatures tomorrow as highs decrease around 5-10 degrees from today.
925 PM EST Tue Nov 22 2016 High pressure over the Great lakes will slide east and move off the East coast Wednesday.
Given the low freezing levels aloft, and strong shower or thunderstorm will likely produce small hail and gusty winds.
/Issued 248 PM EST Tue Nov 22 2016/ High pressure over the area will move east as frontal system pushes into the region Wednesday. A cold front now over the Central and Southern plains states will move east rapidly over the next 24 hours pushing increased cloud cover and precipitation into North GA in the short term. The highest POPs in the forecast right now are right around 30 percent between 00z-06z Thu.
Winds will become west to northwest behind the cold front on Wednesday.
816 PM EST Tue Nov 22 2016 Dry high pressure will maintain fair weather through Wednesday.
Otherwise, a cold front will then move into the area from the northwest. Progged low- level wind shears still favorable for the development of strong to severe storms with the passage of this cold front overnight, but there is still some uncertainty with regard to the location of the upper jet/limited instability. Scattered rain chances to linger into Fri with the next cold front moving on through to the coast.
902 PM EST Tue Nov 22 2016 Looking at the satellite view we find an upper level low sliding northeastward across the central Mississippi Valley, with a trough extending southwest across the Texas coast. Another large upper low is approaching the Northwest Pacific coast. High pressure over the eastern United States is sliding eastward ahead of the trough mentioned before. Moisture under the ridge is sparse, but is slowly increasing in the northeast to east low level flow. With high pressure in control, expect little changes to the existing forecast through the short term. The trough in the central United States will push to the east with a series of short waves moving across the country in its wake.
The mid level short wave trough will move across Oklahoma and north Texas tonight and be over the Ozarks down through the Arklatex region by Wednesday morning. The cold front will move into the northern portion of South Texas 15-16Z and moves through the southern Coastal Bend by 21Z Wednesday.
651 PM EST Tue Nov 22 2016 Dry high pressure will maintain fair weather through Wednesday.
554 PM MST Tue Nov 22 2016 Current radar and satellite trends indicate snow showers are now limited only to the higher terrain in the central mountains east of Aspen and near Rabbit Ears Pass. An approaching trough will move through Idaho and northern Nevada tomorrow afternoon, resulting in southwesterly flow.
641 PM EST Tue Nov 22 2016 High pressure over the Great lakes will slide east and move off the East coast Wednesday.
A cold front will move through the TAF sites Tonight with the potential for showers and thunderstorms.