Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Light to calm wind, low temperature and dew point spreads and at least breaks in the low clouds support potential for light fog overnight. This should allow for a gradual scattering out of the low cloud from the southwest starting late this afternoon, and continuing tonight, although it may not be until the early morning hours of Saturday before the clearing makes it into the far northern zones. Appears Saturday will remain dry for the most part, with the surface and upper ridge holding. By Saturday night, the next upper trough and cold front are progged to move into the area, probably entering the northwest zones around 280300Z or so. Remnant convection along the cold front may reach the west central or northwest zones by the late evening hours, but may be weakening with a loss of surface based instability.
750 PM EDT Fri Mar 26 2021 Warm, dry, and windy conditions persist today as high pressure builds into the area.
920 PM CDT Fri Mar 26 2021 Convection has already begun to develop along a warm front that is located across Central Mississippi. This front will lift north as warm front tonight, reaching the I-40 corridor by 4AM. A secondary warm front, the leading edge of tropical maritime air, should reach central MS by 4AM and surge north through the I-40 corridor by noon Saturday. As it does, the surface warm front will become more diffuse over northwest TN and northeast AR, and the 925mb jet should weaken considerably from its 40 knot peak earlier Saturday morning. As mentioned above, the warm front will become more diffuse and not likely much of a factor Saturday afternoon.
This evening through Saturday night The snow showers this afternoon, possibly mixed with rain in the lower elevations, will gradually end from west to east this evening as the trough axis pulls into the Plains.
949 PM CDT Fri Mar 26 2021 A cold frontal zone stretches from near Baudette, through Bagley, to Breckenridge, and continuing to a low pressure center in east central SD attm. For tonight, an upper trough will traverse the region in association with a strong H5 low moving across northern Manitoba. This will bring down a surge of cooler air through the overnight hours, with precipitation chances for portions of the area.
Heading into the weekend, high pressure will continue to build in from the eastern Pacific, allowing for more sunshine, but with warmer temperatures and lighter winds as well.
613 PM CDT Fri Mar 26 2021 Current surface analysis shows a cold front pushing through the forecast area.
653 PM CDT Fri Mar 26 2021 Although scattered radar echoes have appeared across parts of southeast SD for much of the day, the low level dry layer has been slow to erode with little rain being observed at the surface. However, much stronger mixing and steep low level lapse rates introducing weak instability combined with ascent from an approaching longwave upper trough bring potential for an additional round of scattered showers and isolated thunder, or at least increased cloud cover, for Saturday afternoon. Behind the upper trough axis passage, we'll see a period of gusty northwest winds up to 25 mph Saturday afternoon and early evening. Expect temperatures to fall near to below freezing Saturday night.
High pressure is expected to bring warmer and drier conditions for the upcoming weekend.
With such a fast moving low pressure system (already progressing east of Lake Ontario), expect surface ridging to build in quickly and bring clearing skies (especially after midnight) and light winds tonight.
625 PM EDT Fri Mar 26 2021 Winds will slacken tonight as brief high pressure moves across the northeast. A tight pressure gradient behind a strong low pressure system will keep strong winds over the region through the evening hours. As high pressure drifts toward the region overnight, winds will slacken.
Cold front will enter northeast OK by mid afternoon, along with increasing chances of storms mainly for the KTUL/KRVS sites after 21Z. /Issued 156 PM CDT Fri Mar 26 2021/ Quiet tonight ahead of the next cold front which is currently into far NW KS. Current easterly flow along the western Gulf Coast and forecast veering low level winds ahead of the front support shallow moisture return across much of E OK and into the higher terrain of NW AR.
A deep trough will bring rain and snow showers through the night across northern Arizona.
954 PM EDT Fri Mar 26 2021 Winds will slacken tonight as brief high pressure moves across the northeast. As high pressure drifts toward the region overnight, winds will slacken.
359 PM MDT Fri Mar 26 2021 An active pattern underway as a trough transitions through the region as we speak. The cold front associated with this trough is currently draped along the Laramie Range, with light snow showers across southeast Wyoming, and a rain-snow mix falling across the west Nebraska Panhandle. Under the heaviest bands, snow has fallen even as temperatures remain above freezing.
The low level thermal profile continues to favor liquid precipitation during this part of the event.
Early this afternoon, a trough was quickly passing through the forecast area with the bulk of cooler air aloft and forcing relegated to northern Arizona. However, enough saturation and frontogentical forcing exists around H7 trough axis to allow for some isolated shower development descending into parts of south- central AZ.
The increase in cloud cover to the south of us is in response to a warm front that is slowly moving to the north. As the warm front move through the region low level moisture will begin to increase and cigs will drop to MVFR to IFR across the region.
515 PM EDT Fri Mar 26 2021 Stacked ridging continues over the region and expected to strengthen this weekend to keep the very warm to near record temps along with southerly low level flow and mostly clear skies for the area. An area of sea fog persists over the portions of the NE Gulf early this evening and models keep that overnight into Saturday with high dew point air over cooler NE Gulf waters. Water temperatures are in the mid 70s and with air temperatures in the low 90s I would bet a pretty good seabreeze penetration.
Deep moisture transport atop a warm front along with a quick moving wave of PV will allow for showers and thunderstorms to expand in coverage. MUCAPE values ramp up atop the low-level inversion between 1000-2000j/kg. Deep layer shear of 50-60 knots, low freezing lvl heights, and sufficient CAPE within the HGZ layer does suggest the threat of large hail. Area of rain and embedded thunderstorms will lift north with a warm front during the morning hours of Saturday from south to north. Diegan Chattanooga Airport, TN 53 76 63 70 42 / 30 60 80 90 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 49 71 61 69 40 / 20 80 80 90 10 Oak Ridge, TN 48 69 60 68 39 / 20 90 90 90 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 45 70 57 68 36 / 10 80 70 90 10 TN.
/Issued 343 PM EDT Fri Mar 26 2021/ The cold front that aided in last night's severe weather has essentially stalled across central GA, stretching roughly from Columbus to Macon to Warrenton. The aforementioned stationary front will lift northward tomorrow as a warm front, fueling moisture return and WAA across much of the CWA. Coupled with progged bulk shear of 40-50 kts overlying the warm front, organized storms capable of damaging winds and hail will be a concern.
An active pattern underway as a trough transitions through the region as we speak. The cold front associated with this trough is currently draped along the Laramie Range, with light snow showers across southeast Wyoming, and a rain-snow mix falling across the west Nebraska Panhandle. Under the heaviest bands, snow has fallen even as temperatures remain above freezing.
340 AM CDT Sat Mar 27 2021 Zone of deep lift ahead of a cold front approaching from the northwest is supporting clusters of showers and thunderstorms across eastern Kansas early this morning. Otherwise, post- frontal airmass will support cooler temperatures today mostly in the 60s.
1255 AM EDT Sat Mar 27 2021 Dry weather is expected today under high pressure. Showers, and possibly thunderstorms, return tonight and Sunday with the passage of a cold front. The low will pull a sfc warm front across the region tonight, to the south of the surface boundary, showers will overspread the region after midnight. Showers will continue on Sunday as the upper trough drifts into Ohio, and pushes a cold front through the region. Showers will end Sunday evening as the trough shifts to eastern PA.
315 AM EDT Sat Mar 27 2021 Digging upper level wave/trough working through the northern Plains today, with additional upper level energy lagging behind across the Four Corners region. With increasing boundary layer depths through the day, should have no problem tapping into 40 knots in the 925-850 MB layer advertised by NAM soundings, and expecting 40 MPH gusts throughout the day, especially with any instability sprinkles/isolated light showers generated as some modest cape (under 25 J/kg) is generated with the steep low level lapse rates, and potential Lake Superior/Lake Michigan/Saginaw Bay connection with the cold northwest flow as the upper level trough axis will be overhead Sunday afternoon.
317 AM EDT Sat Mar 27 2021 Deep layer ridging will prevail through Sunday, though an amplifying northern CONUS trough will start nudging the ridge axis southeastward late in the period. A few stray, light showers will be possible each day along the Gold Coast where easterly flow transports low-level moisture over the cooler near-shore marine zone (especially closer to Palm Beach county), or along the thermal trough axis advecting off the Bahamas.
WV imagery indicates a southwest flow aloft prevailing across the Western High Plains downstream of an upper level trough shifting slowly east through the Desert Southwest. Near the surface, a cold front is moving southeast across southwest and central Kansas. Windy, but otherwise tranquil conditions are expected today into tonight as an upper level trough pushes across the Desert Southwest into the South Plains of west Texas. Cooler and much drier air will filter southward into western Kansas today in wake of a cold frontal passage early this morning. Afternoon highs are expected to reach the mid/upper 50s(F) in west central Kansas to possibly the lower 60s(F) farther southeast in south central Kansas.
COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER BY END OF THE WORK WEEK. Near record highs are possible for some locations this afternoon as stacked ridging (592 dam heights at 500mb) continues to dominate the Peninsula with very warm and dry weather. Near the surface, the high pressure centered near Bermuda stretches westward across the state with its influence out into Gulf.
235 AM CDT Sat Mar 27 2021 A closed upper low will track over the far southern Rockies and near far West Texas today. Main upper system tracks east across the Panhandles tonight with northwesterly flow aloft as upper ridge builds east and northeast from the southwestern states into the southern Plains states tonight through Sunday night.
At 333 AM, a weak area of low pressure was centered over northeast Kansas, driving lift and leading to mostly cloudy skies in Nebraska and Iowa. So So Saturday Conditions: The aforementioned area of low pressure will shift eastward through the day today. Toss in low freezing levels and 0-3 km lapse rates of 6. Of course it should be noted that acquiring these "higher" instabilities may require some limited clearing of the low clouds, so we'll see how it goes.
This is in response to a warm front which will be lifting northward through the mid state today. For the near term temps, despite the clouds and rainfall, we will see our temps warm into the lower 70s for today with humidities on the upswing for sure.
This may be just enough to generate a couple of updrafts that could be capable of producing some pea sized hail with freezing levels likely between about 2500 feet to 4000 feet. Otherwise a little bit breezy and cooler with highs a couple degrees below yesterday and northwest winds a bit on the breezy side. Clouds will decrease through the night along with winds so some cooler lows in the mid 20s to lower 30s. Will likely see highs in the lower 70s in south central SD while southwest MN may only top out in the mid 50s as residual cool air is slower to shift east.
The surface warm front currently just south of Atlanta should continue to lift to the GA/TN border today. The warm front drifting north of the area could give us a brief break with lower pops overnight. the approach of a cold front will increase the chances across the northwest. but should be cooler across much of the area on Sunday.
307 AM CDT Sat Mar 27 2021 Upper level trough was pushing into western IA with widespread light rain in our nw third and into central IA. A cold front extended from northern MN to Central Nebraska. Then a cold front will enter our western counties this afternoon, and then exit our east by early evening. Ahead of the front, temperatures will be mild, in the lower to mid 60s. Tonight: In the wake of the cold front, nw winds with gusts to around 30 mph, and cooler temperatures can be expected. Skies will also clear from west to east after midnight as high pressure ridge in the Plains builds into the area.
324 AM CDT Sat Mar 27 2021 The main cold front is currently moving across the northern Texas Panhandle and is expected to push through the FA by or shortly after sunrise. Temperatures will be cooler than yesterday by roughly 5 degrees or so.
(Today and tonight) A cold front moving into northwest Oklahoma this morning will continue to move southeast through the day.
At the surface, low pressure was located in western KS with a warm front extending into north central KS. Storm chances continue into tonight north of the warm front on the nose of the low level jet, with the better focus for these storms to our east. The weather dries out tonight behind a cold front and Saturday will feature dry, but breezy conditions with wind gusts 25-30 mph as mixing deepens behind an upper trough crossing the northern/central Plains. The airmass begins to moderate Sunday in height rises behind the departing upper trough axis.
1149 PM MDT Fri Mar 26 2021 06Z TAF CYCLE Despite an upper level trough moving east across the state through the TAF period, VFR conditions will persist at most terminals.
1058 PM CDT Fri Mar 26 2021 Although scattered radar echoes have appeared across parts of southeast SD for much of the day, the low level dry layer has been slow to erode with little rain being observed at the surface. However, much stronger mixing and steep low level lapse rates introducing weak instability combined with ascent from an approaching longwave upper trough bring potential for an additional round of scattered showers and isolated thunder, or at least increased cloud cover, for Saturday afternoon. Behind the upper trough axis passage, we'll see a period of gusty northwest winds up to 25 mph Saturday afternoon and early evening.
143 AM EDT Sat Mar 27 2021 A weakening stationary front will lift north as a warm front Saturday.
Early this afternoon, a trough was quickly passing through the forecast area with the bulk of cooler air aloft and forcing relegated to northern Arizona. However, enough saturation and frontogentical forcing exists around H7 trough axis to allow for some isolated shower development descending into parts of south- central AZ. HREF members are in good agreement suggesting scattered/isolated showers percolating around south- central AZ into the mid evening before clearing/dissipating After the trough exits the region early Saturday, a high amplitude ridge will briefly overspread the area with H5 heights peaking around 594dm Sunday.
322 AM CDT Sat Mar 27 2021 Across the Ozarks early this morning, quiet weather conditions prevailed as rain and convection was ongoing along a warm front across northeastern Kansas into southern Iowa. A trailing cold front will become the weather maker for the area late this afternoon into this evening.
954 PM MDT Fri Mar 26 2021 As upper trough continues to cross the northern plains Saturday, associated energy and upper jet will move over the CWA. 20z surface analysis had a cold front from western MN into southern WY. Water vapour had mean trough from central SK into the four corners area. Tonight, upper trough slowly shifts east as main lift exits the CWA late. Forecast soundings show mainly snow over the higher elevations and mix trending toward mostly snow tonight. Accumulations on the plains will be minimum with a few inches of snow possible over the highest elevations of the Black Hills.
Dry and cooler weather return Sunday with gusty northwest winds. Weak high pressure will keep the area dry tonight with light winds. Showers will move out from west to east Sunday morning, with gusty northwest winds and cooler temperatures trailing the front.
310 AM EDT Sat Mar 27 2021 High pressure will move across the area with dry weather today. The low clouds over the area now will erode from southwest to northeast. With the partial clearing and late day warm air advection aloft temperatures will rise to the low and mid 60s Elmira to Scranton and mid to upper 50s Syracuse/Rome to Catskills. A trailing cold front will cross our area Sunday afternoon.
400 AM EDT Sat Mar 27 2021 Dry weather is expected today under high pressure. Showers, and possibly thunderstorms, return tonight and Sunday with the passage of a cold front. The low will pull a sfc warm front across the region tonight, to the south of the surface boundary, showers will overspread the region after midnight. Showers will continue on Sunday as the upper trough drifts into Ohio, and pushes a cold front through the region. Showers will end Sunday evening as the trough shifts to eastern PA.
Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Afternoon composite analysis reveals larger scale low amplitude ridging building through the SE states and into the western Great Lakes. Subsidence and drier air have been steadily building into the region this afternoon and has managed to open up some holes in the low cloud cover, particularly across north-central Lower Michigan, although there remains a fair amount of shallow lake induced/reinforced stratocu streaming off Lakes Michigan and Superior. High pressure moves in late which could bring some peaks sunshine late in the day and lessen the winds.
An upper trough swinging across AZ today will move into NM Saturday before passing over the area that night. After the trough passes off to the east the ridge will build in from the west Sunday.
High pressure moves across the area with dry weather today. As high pressure drifts toward the region overnight, winds will slacken. Another low pressure system will from the Great Lakes to southern Canada on Sunday. The associated warm front, followed by a passing cold front will bring widespread rain showers to our area on Sunday. As the low pressure system pulls away, some lingering showers are possible Sunday night.
/issued 920 PM CDT Fri Mar 26 2021/ Convection has already begun to develop along a warm front that is located across Central Mississippi.
222 AM MDT Sat Mar 27 2021 Departing upper trough and cyclonic flow will continue to support slightly unsettled conds today, with one more round of showers.
Warm frontal development and eventual northward timing push into mid state region as Saturday progresses may be key to stronger convective development. VFR continues thru 10-12z Sat before a warm front lifts north into the Mid State.
Steadily increasing south to southwesterly flow across TN now, riding over a warm front down there will steadily pull that moisture northward through the day today. Expect coverage of rain and storms to increase significantly later this evening and overnight, as a strong low-level jet develops ahead of a cold front approach our area. Given that area has some of the lowest flash flood guidance in our region, will hoist a small watch to match up with our TN neighbor's watch.
The upper level trough and cold pool aloft is creating some midlevel instability which is borne out with the cellular nature of the clouds seen on visible satellite imagery. By daybreak tomorrow, height rises indicate high pressure moving in as the upper level trough will have shifted east. Anticyclonic flow around the high will keep winds from the north keeping daytime highs a bit cooler than normal. High pressure will slide overhead on Sunday, giving way to mostly sunny skies and milder temperatures with highs about 5 degrees above normal.
For later today and tonight, the warm front appears to less sharp and farther southeast, keeping the bulk of the MLCAPE across western and southern locations. Modest northwest winds and some cloud in a largely-similar post-frontal airmass should allow Saturday's highs to reach the lower to middle 60s with slightly warmer temps Sunday.
Warm frontal development and eventual northward timing push into mid state region as Saturday progresses may be key to stronger convective development.
HREF shows marginal MUCAPE along and south of the warm front, but this stays mainly to our south and east this afternoon so do not anticipate any thunderstorm potential locally. Surface ridging will gradually build in from the west, offering plenty of sunshine.
1246 AM CDT Sat Mar 27 2021 (Tonight through Saturday) An upper trough will shift southeast across the Four Corners area early tonight, and then east across New Mexico to near the TX/NM border by late Saturday afternoon. Our area will have southwest flow aloft out ahead of this trough. Temperatures will be milder tonight, with lows expected to be mostly in the lower to mid 50s.
Cold front will push to near I-44 by 21Z with the potential for widely scattered showers/thunderstorms. Light SE winds and clear/mostly clear skies will prevail, with low temps trending to the lower/mid 50s at most locations. Surface cold front on track to push through eastern OK and northwest AR mid to late afternoon. Slightly cooler temperatures expected Sunday.
1046 PM CDT Fri Mar 26 2021 Weak surface ridging will continue to bring light winds and dry conditions this afternoon and evening, with partly to mostly cloudy skies. Temperatures should rise a few more degrees by late afternoon, with most places topping out in the upper 40s to near 50, although far north-central Wisconsin may struggle to reach the lower 40s under an area of slowly eroding stratus clouds. Behind this, a larger upper level trough approaching from the west will set off additional shower chances for the afternoon into the evening.
302 AM CDT Sat Mar 27 2021 Elongated mid level trough continues to dig into southern AZ this morning while embedded upper speed max traverses the central plains into the midwest regions. Focus for today turns to a progressive cold front surging southeast from southern NE, veering winds to the northwest during the afternoon between 15 and 20 mph sustained.
(Tonight through Saturday) An upper trough will shift southeast across the Four Corners area early tonight, and then east across New Mexico to near the TX/NM border by late Saturday afternoon. Our area will have southwest flow aloft out ahead of this trough. Temperatures will be milder tonight, with lows expected to be mostly in the lower to mid 50s.
These backed low level winds, along with a strengthening and somewhat veered low level jet will provide a very favorable wind profile to max out shear, especially in the lower levels. That being said, should there be some unresolvable pockets of higher instability a strong storm or two will be possible along the diffuse warm frontal zone, which will set up just north of I-70. A bit of unfortunate news for Saturday, as models have appeared to speed up the cold front a touch, which will have it moving through a majority of the forecast area prior to peak heating.
This will bring fair, dry and much warmer weather across all of Southern California.