Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Otherwise, expect isolated thunderstorms to occur over the Mid-State as a cold front moves in from the northwest.
The best instability within the highest moisture resides west and south of the city so the relatively best (afternoon) convective chances will be over LBX or GLS. Once again this morning, most of the high resolution models have gotten this development right, so have our area's highest rain chances currently across the waters gradually spreading inland during the day today. Still looking for gradual drying across Southeast Texas over the holiday weekend as ridging aloft builds across the area.
After a cool start with plenty of solar and warming column temperatures should be able to recover into the low/mid 70s.
After a couple of really nice days with slightly cooler than normal temps and low humidity levels, muggy conditions are already creeping back into the area. Dew points are climbing into the 60s early this morning, and temps are running several degrees warmer than this time yesterday.
Expect these conditions to continue through the afternoon hours as strong high pressure ridging continues to prevail across the area. /15/ For the Today through Saturday night period, predawn water vapor imagery and model analysis showed the ArkLaMiss under an upper trough with northwest flow across the CWA. This feature was around a subtropical ridge 592 dkm high centered over northwest Mexico. The upper trough axis will push off to the east as the flat ridge exerts its influence from the Southern Plains. It will once again be less humid today with dewpoints in the 60s, while on Saturday dewpoints will creep into the lower 70s in some areas. Lows for tonight will be from the upper 60s to the lower 70s. Lows for Saturday night will be in the lower to middle 70s.
1046 AM CDT FRI JUL 1 2016 Cloudy skies are developing/working into the far western forecast zones /west river/ this morning, and light winds from the southeast will advect coolish dry air across the cwa off this cool dry high pressure system situated across the eastern Dakotas and Minnesota. Despite cool Canadian high pressure overhead this morning, high clouds have slid in from the west overnight thanks to pesky northwest flow aloft and clouds rounding the ridge over the western states. The ridge will remain across most of the forecast area. As we move into the weekend it looks like the building 500MB ridge and continued southerly flow at the surface with the next trough still to our west.
southwest Idaho and southeast Oregon continue to be on the interface between the monsoonal moisture over the Great Basin and Desert Southwest and the drier and cooler air over the Pacific Northwest Coast.
617 AM CDT FRI JUL 1 2016 Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms continue along and east of a cold front, which at 2 am was located roughly along the I-55 corridor. The latest surface observations showing some patchy fog and low clouds immediately behind the cold front, but forecast soundings indicate the depth of the moisture to be quite shallow, so what fog and stratus that does develop won't be around for very long this morning as high pressure to our northwest shifts southeast into the Midwest. The NAM is most aggressive in overspreading the rain over the CWA Saturday evening, but the slower GFS/ECMWF solution is preferred with the highest rain chances not arriving until late evening over the northeast CWA.
Rain chances will decrease Saturday night, as ridging over the western Gulf of Mexico tries to build in to the region, and pushes any leftover mesoscale boundaries north.
746 AM EDT FRI JUL 1 2016 A weak cold front will increase shower and storm chances today.
A upper-level trough and associated sfc front are moving towards the area currently, with recent inccreases in low-lvl convective cu noted upstream in West Tennessee.
705 AM EDT FRI JUL 1 2016 Low pressure over Lake Huron will continue to move east today dragging a cold front across the local area.
A weak upper trough will be over the area Saturday with low level onshore flow.
low pressure was over Hudson Bay with another upper low in the Gulf of Alaska with weak zonal upper level flow over much of western North America. Temperatures should be a tad higher today than yesterday, with expected highs from the lower 70s from the Turtle Mountains to James Valley to upper 70s in the west. Models are in fair agreement that the best chance for showers and thunderstorms will be across northwestern and north central North Dakota; mainly along and just north of the nose of the low level jet. This upper ridge axis passes over the Dakotas Saturday/Saturday night bringing warmer temperatures and small chances of thunderstorms with weak impulses moving through the ridge.
Upslope flow should initiate additional storms this afternoon over the higher terrain to the west. Lingering convection is possible over northeast Kansas Saturday morning before the low-level jet weakens/backs.
738 AM CDT FRI JUL 1 2016 The cold front responsible for the overnight convection is currently exiting the sthrn and ern FA and should be completely out of the CWA by 12Z.
Upper trough axis lifts farther NEWD off New England region by Saturday allowing our area for return to rather stagnant environment and overall slight chance pops for isolated shower/storm development. Temps today somewhat similar to yesterday generally in the low 90s with a few pockets possibly reaching higher. A westerly flow coupled with a weak surface boundary/trough will continue to allow scattered thunderstorms to develop.
1212 PM EDT FRI JUL 1 2016 Scattered showers and possibly a few thunderstorms will accompany a cold front across the region today.
1022 AM EDT FRI JUL 1 2016 Weak cold front brings isolated showers arrives this afternoon.
A short wave trough currently located across central Wyoming and the Utah/Colorado border will move eastward today. The influence of cool Canadian high pressure will be felt today with the southeasterly upslope winds and mostly cloudy skies. Cloudy conditions and a rain-cooled atmosphere will keep temperatures on the cooler side for Saturday. Expect highs to only rise into the low to mid 70s.
1058 AM EDT FRI JUL 1 2016 An upper trough will push a cold front through the region today and tomorrow. Otherwise, an upper trough extended from Hudson Bay to the Gulf of Mexico. At the surface, a surface front now over the Carolinas and Georgia will weaken and shift slowly east today, while a better defined cold front reached the mountains from the northwest. As of 245am EDT Friday: Generally zonal upper flow pattern Saturday morning gradually transitions to southwesterly flow as next continental trough approaches the area.
The broad but shallow upper level trough will move across the Pacific NW this weekend.
1046 AM CDT FRI JUL 1 2016 High pressure will dominate the weather across central Illinois today, providing partly to mostly sunny skies and cool conditions. Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms continue along and east of a cold front, which at 2 am was located roughly along the I-55 corridor. The latest surface observations showing some patchy fog and low clouds immediately behind the cold front, but forecast soundings indicate the depth of the moisture to be quite shallow, so what fog and stratus that does develop won't be around for very long this morning as high pressure to our northwest shifts southeast into the Midwest. The NAM is most aggressive in overspreading the rain over the CWA Saturday evening, but the slower GFS/ECMWF solution is preferred with the highest rain chances not arriving until late evening over the northeast CWA.
928 AM EDT FRI JUL 1 2016 A cold front will approach from the west today and will cross the region overnight.
658 AM CDT FRI JUL 1 2016 VFR conditions are expected at the TAF sites through 18Z Saturday as an upper level ridge dominates the weather across the region. /ISSUED 310 AM CDT FRI JUL 1 2016/ No major changes to the forecast in the foreseeable future as North Texas weather will continue to be dominated by strong upper ridging for the next several days. The center of the upper high will oscillate between the southern Plains and the 4-corners region over the next 10 days and these slight variations will only impact temperatures by a few degrees here and there. the ridging will be centered just to our west leaving North Texas with weak winds and warm temperatures. This will keep the upper ridge from amplifying but it will also help strengthen southerly flow into North Texas.
1130 AM EDT FRI JUL 1 2016 15z SFC analysis shows a cold front settling into western Kentucky. Meanwhile, winds are generally from the southwest at 5 to 10 mph with mostly sunny skies out ahead of the cold front and early convection in the north. A weak cold front will dive southeast across our area today and tonight. We begin the period in more of a zonal flow across the region as trough advances more and more to the east.
722 AM EDT FRI JUL 1 2016 A cold front will approach from the west today and will cross the region overnight.
917 AM MDT FRI JUL 1 2016 Our region will remain largely dominated by an upper level ridge over the northern Rockies today.
Ridge has flattened in this area. A stream of moisture is under the large scale ridging pattern from Dillon to near Glasgow. with highs into the mid to upper 80s across the lower elevations. across the higher terrain.
850 AM EDT FRI JUL 1 2016 A very moist and unstable air mass covering the forecast area this morning (via 12Z Raob data) combined with daytime heating the sea breeze circulation and some additional lift from a 500MB vort max approaching from the northwest will lead to scattered to numerous showers and storms over the region the remainder of today with the highest rain chances and storm coverage expected over northern and central zones, as well as over interior locations as the sea breeze moves inland during the afternoon.
A cold front has pushed south through much of the area, however it remains over portions of far southwestern Missouri and extreme southeastern Kansas. Slight cooler temperatures will occur today as highs in the lower to middle 80s occur. A warm front will lift back north and stall somewhere across central Missouri. Highs will only warm into the lower 70s across central Missouri as highs in the low to mid 90s occur across far southwestern Missouri and extreme southeastern Kansas Saturday afternoon.
1000 AM EDT FRI JUL 1 2016 Low pressure over Lake Huron will continue to move east today dragging a cold front across the local area.
1100 AM CDT FRI JUL 1 2016 Regional 88Ds rather quiet this morning as ridging aloft has built ewd a bit from yesterday. High pressure with drier air continues to overspread the region. /issued 324 AM CDT FRI JUL 1 2016/ Quite a range of temperatures across the US this morning with the upper plain states reporting upper 40s to mid 50s as a cold front pushes into Missouri this morning. Rain chances are also falling as the ridge aloft builds back in from the west.
Cannot rule out thunderstorms over any of the higher elevation areas this afternoon but Snake Plain expected to remain dry initially though storm movement could impact portions of the Upper Snake later today. Driest conditions will be Saturday with a weak high pressure ridge moving through.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 94 69 92 70 / 10 10 10 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 92 68 88 69 / 10 10 10 10 Oak Ridge, TN 91 67 88 69 / 10 10 10 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 89 63 84 65 / 10 10 10 20.
Highs in the low 90Fs are forecast area-wide, with a few pockets of mid 90Fs possible.
1159 AM EDT FRI JUL 1 2016 A cold front will approach from the west today and will cross the region overnight.
1031 AM EDT FRI JUL 1 2016 Weak cold front brings isolated showers or storms this afternoon.
A shallow ridge works its way east across Montana today and Saturday which will maintain west to northwest flow aloft. Expect slightly above highs today and even warmer on Saturday at 5F to 10F above normal.
Thinking models may be too far south and quick with trough transition and will bring slight chance axis further north with the update. Upper trough axis lifts farther NEWD off New England region by Saturday allowing our area for return to rather stagnant environment and overall slight chance pops for isolated shower/storm development. Temps today somewhat similar to yesterday generally in the low 90s with a few pockets possibly reaching higher. A westerly flow coupled with a weak surface boundary/trough will continue to allow scattered thunderstorms to develop.
A weak cold front now moving into NW Missouri will quickly move south into the region later this morning into the afternoon.
Surface analysis this morning places a weak cold front from southeast Missouri back through northern Arkansas. A weak cold front now moving into NW Missouri will quickly move south into the region later this morning into the afternoon.
A secondary cold front caused winds to gust to 25 to 30 kts on Lake Michigan, and brought some low stratocumulus clouds into the forecast area. The arrival of drier Canadian air, with dew points in the 40s, was causing the low clouds to erode over northern WI. Gusty north winds will diminish as Canadian high pressure builds into the region in the late morning and afternoon. Most locations will have min temps in the mid 40s to mid 50s range, but the typical cold spots in north central WI should drop into the lower 40s.
High pressure with drier air continues to overspread the region. /issued 324 AM CDT FRI JUL 1 2016/ Quite a range of temperatures across the US this morning with the upper plain states reporting upper 40s to mid 50s as a cold front pushes into Missouri this morning. Rain chances are also falling as the ridge aloft builds back in from the west.
Lows tonight are expected to range from the lower 60s across northern Kansas to upper 60s to around 70 degrees along the KS/OK border.
712 AM EDT FRI JUL 1 2016 A weak cold front will dive southeast across our area today and tonight. We begin the period in more of a zonal flow across the region as trough advances more and more to the east.
On Saturday, greatest atmospheric moisture axis will shift south some bringing the highest PWs into the northern and central zones. The synoptic pattern will be dominated by stacked ridging aloft. and at the lower level. the subtropical ridge axis extends across either the central or south-central Florida peninsula. however the exact details of the convective evolution will be determined by the southward extent each day of the subtropical ridge axis. Temperatures will be average to slightly above average due to the general ridging aloft. The close proximity of the subtropical ridge axis will keep synoptic winds and seas low.
Once again this morning, most of the high resolution models have gotten this development right, so have our area's highest rain chances currently across the waters gradually spreading inland during the day today. Still looking for gradual drying across Southeast Texas over the holiday weekend as ridging aloft builds across the area.
Despite cool Canadian high pressure overhead this morning, high clouds have slid in from the west overnight thanks to pesky northwest flow aloft and clouds rounding the ridge over the western states. The ridge will remain across most of the forecast area. As we move into the weekend it looks like the building 500MB ridge and continued southerly flow at the surface with the next trough still to our west.
Lows will drop into the lower to mid 70s overnight.
317 PM CDT MON JUL 4 2016 Elongated ridge from southern Cal to the southern plains. A trough is across the southern Miss Rvr valley with another trough over the sw Canada and the Pacific NW. A cold front stretches from the Canadian low to the SW across the Rockies. A few isolated storms possible across the higher terrain to the west this evening which will slowly drift in the zonal flow to the east. Impact to the western zones is possible with a better chance albeit still a slight chance, closer to the pine ridge later this evening. Another warm day ahead of an approaching cold front. Compressional heating will push temps up a few more degrees from today with the exception of far nw zones where cold front will halt the warmup and keep temps around 90.
* Low for cig aob 5kft tonight * Medium for cig aob 5kft Tuesday afternoon The dampening of a mid level short wave feature now traversing the Ohio Valley is leading to the break down of the low level anticyclone across the eastern Great Lakes, resulting in the veering of the low to mid level winds toward the south-southwest.
Upper level ridging will then build into the area Tuesday, setting the stage for a very hot and humid day. Highs on Tuesday are expected to reach the low to mid 90s, with dewpoints in the mid to even upper 70s. The highest values--105 to 110--will be along and north of I-44, where a Heat Advisory will be in effect from noon through 8 PM. Temperatures Tuesday night will remain warm, with lows only in the low to mid 70s.
Following the low, breezy northwest winds will moderate temps across Northeast Wyoming and far western SD.
Mostly clear skies prevail across interior Northern California this morning under a broad, dry trough spanning across much of the Western US. Temperatures across the forecast area are running a few degrees cooler than yesterday.
An upper level trough currently over the central plains is expected to enter the region this evening.
412 PM EDT MON JUL 4 2016 Low pressure will track from the mid Mississippi Valley through the mid Atlantic region which will bring a warm front through the area today.
Additional mostly isolated thunderstorm development is possible late this afternoon across Pine Ridge and the Black Hills.
322 PM CDT MON JUL 4 2016 Elongated ridge from southern Cal to the southern plains. A trough is across the southern Miss Rvr valley with another trough over the sw Canada and the Pacific NW. A cold front stretches from the Canadian low to the SW across the Rockies. A few isolated storms possible across the higher terrain to the west this evening which will slowly drift in the zonal flow to the east. Impact to the western zones is possible with a better chance albeit still a slight chance, closer to the pine ridge later this evening. Another warm day ahead of an approaching cold front. Compressional heating will push temps up a few more degrees from today with the exception of far nw zones where cold front will halt the warmup and keep temps around 90.
Temperatures on Tuesday appear to be a few degree cooler compare to today which is around 8 degrees below normal for this time of year.
Upper level trough moving through the Mid-South as this discussion is being typed. The upper level trough does really move out of the Mid-South until Tuesday afternoon so there is a continue possibility of showers and thunderstorms, however, they decrease as the evening progresses tonight and then increase again Tuesday afternoon as we get some more heating and instability is increased again.
(Tuesday night through Monday) An upper level ridge will dominate the weather across much of the southern half of the United States through the end of the week.
LOW PRESSURE OVER MO WILL WEAKEN AND WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL SAG A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH INTO THE EASTERN STATES TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. TUESDAY SHOULD BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER WITH MUCH MORE CLOUD COVER AND WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION. WEAK UPPER-TROUGH AND SHORTAVES PUSH SOUTH FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL MAINTAIN SOME DECENT CHANCES FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SCATTERED SHOWERS AND EACH DAY THROUGH MOST OF THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK.
ne pac upper trough continues to support periodic impulse into the region. Strongest ll forcing looks to be across ne WY into nw SD where the highest pops were added. Thermal ridge will pass over the region today with 90s expected most places outside of the BH. Weak cool front will settle across the area Tues, supporting slightly cooler readings across the nw half.
Atlantic high pressure will broadly ridge west across the state with an axis residing just to the south of Tampa Bay. The sea breeze will shift winds south of the ridge axis to onshore but with the prevailing southeasterly flow pushing back will result in the greatest shower and storm coverage closer to the coast. a TUTT cell tracking west-northwest over Cuba this morning has some cooler temperatures aloft brushing southern FL. as reflected in the higher POPs in the southwest counties. Broad high pressure bisecting the coastal waters will keep winds light.
Temps will continue to warm up into the low to mid 90s by this afternoon even with the cloud cover and the ample southerly flow in place. The boundary along with daytime heating and the upper-level trough moving east as the ridge breaks down will allow for scattered showers and thunderstorm development through this afternoon.
A front across the area will gradually fade away as weak high pressure builds in for Tuesday.
253 PM EDT MON JUL 4 2016 Low pressure will bring scattered showers and thunderstorms tonight into the first half of Tuesday, especially south and east of Pittsburgh. Warmer and more humid conditions will arrive Tuesday into late week. Have trended POPs a bit lower as well except for southeast ridges, as models continue to be too far north. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will remain across the southeast ridges Tuesday as mid level trough passes. This will usher in warmer and more humid air Tuesday, with temperatures rising well into the 80s.
By fireworks time temperatures will have cooled into the low 90s and upper 90s with heat index values still in the mid 90s.
In the afternoon a bit more isolated to scattered convection should be seen over central Arkansas, with the lowest over the south. Upper level trough over Oklahoma and Texas will translate eastward, which will push the frontal boundary into Arkansas later this morning. By late Tuesday, ridging will build back in, with any lingering precipitation chances diminishing.
Expect precip to diminish from NW-SE tonight as the weak upper trof axis continues to shear out, and the effective boundary is pushed into the Tennessee Valley. Drying trend will continue on Tuesday, as mid-level heights attempt to rise a bit across the region as mid-level ridging over the Southern Plains tries to expand north and east.
Tonight Through Tuesday An upper level low pressure center over eastern British Columbia and western Alberta with a jet across the Pacific Northwest and Northern Rockies will continue to produce west southwest flow across western and central Wyoming. Very Gusty winds will occur from the high based convection with isolated wind gusts to 55 mph.
231 PM MDT MON JUL 4 2016 Low clouds and fog dissipated and moved out of the forecast area today as a warm front pushed eastward ahead of a deepening lee trough. Winds will be generally light this afternoon and evening, but as the lee trough deepens further along the eastern Colorado border through the day tomorrow, expect temperatures to warm well into the 90s and likely approach the century mark as winds turn more southerly and begin to increase ahead of the trough. As the upper flow begins to turn more southwesterly, a stronger short wave trough moves east of the Rockies and across the plains on Tuesday.
Thermal profiles suggest a slow warming trend in the lower and mid levels through this afternoon.
High pressure will dominate the area's weather through the week, which will limit convective coverage each day.
AEX appears to be the Taf lctn w/ the highest potential for storm actvty.
206 PM EDT MON JUL 4 2016 Low pressure will return rain chances to the Upper Ohio region this afternoon and Tuesday. Have trended forecast toward the slightly more suppressed 14Z HRRR model solution through the night, keeping highest pops across the south into the southeast ridges, with only isolated to scattered showers far north. The main trough axis will be just east of the area shortly after dawn on Tuesday.
Cooler temperatures remain aloft as a TUTT low passes to our south, which will aide in the development of a few stronger storms this afternoon, especially with boundary collisions.