Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
543 PM MDT Sat Aug 15 2020 Upper level analysis and water vapor show northwest flow aloft with subtle trough axis pivoting across the Northern Plains today. Expansive high pressure over SW US and ridge axis over the Pacific NW will dominate the weather through at least midweek. Fully expect the occasional wave riding the top of the ridge, although dry west-northwest flow will limit precipitation chances and storm coverage.
High pressure ridge axis remains south/east of ECFL. High temperatures in the low to mid 90s.
614 PM EDT Sat Aug 15 2020 High pressure remains north of the state through Sunday.
944 PM CDT Sat Aug 15 2020 (Issued 942 PM CDT Sat Aug 15 2020) Low clouds are lingering over far southeast WI in the wake of a cold front. Otherwise, northwesterly flow and cooler conditions are expected overnight with lows falling into the 50s. Sunday is shaping up to be mild and much less humid as high pressure builds to the west and upper-level northwesterly flow pattern establishes itself over the region.
TWH Dominant upper level high pressure over the western US begins to build into the western half of Montana maintaining clear skies. Dry air is facilitating cool overnight temperatures but strong solar insolation will help temperatures rebound into the lower to mid 90s on Sunday. Strong ridging will dominate the northern Rockies.
VFR conditions will prevail through the short term period as surface and mid-level high pressure suppresses moisture across the region. /issued 246 PM CDT Sat Aug 15 2020/ SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday Night): Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley will remain on the southern periphery of broad 500 mb high pressure centered over the Desert Southwest during the period.
The cold front continues to push into southeast Kansas this afternoon, bringing welcome relief in the form of drier air to the northern half of the CWA as dewpoints drop into the middle and upper 50s. For tonight, isentropic lift increases within the low levels as h85 winds veer to the southeast, advecting warm and moist air towards central and western Kansas. Severe storm chances for Sunday afternoon and evening are appearing less likely as a secondary cold front and trailing upper wave slow over Nebraska. An overall quiet week ahead as the strong upper ridge covering much of the western CONUS shifts slightly eastward, directing most of the stronger waves east of the area.
A cold front will be located on the AR/MO border Sun morning, and will drive a wind shft to N/NErly through Sun.
714 PM EDT Sat Aug 15 2020 An upper level trough will move into the area overnight. This will push a weak cold front through the area Sunday. A short wave trough was centered west of the Southern Appalachians this evening. The chance for showers and thunderstorms will likely linger overnight as the short wave trough and a weak surface cold front moves into the area. Overnight lows will be in the low to mid 70s. All of the models show that the axis of the upper trough will move to the coast during the day on Sunday. There continues to be some timing differences in how fast the trough will push toward the coast with the NAM being the fastest and the ECMWF/GFS being the slowest.
Temperatures today will be slightly cooler than yesterday, which is a trend that will continue into tomorrow when a weak cold front brings temperatures back down to near normal. Given abnormally low moisture in the low levels recently and expected strong air mass modification due to hot temps will keep PoPs low but fairly widespread for Monday and Monday night.
Active weather over the next 36 hours with showers and thunderstorms along a low pressure system and a series of frontal boundaries near the area. Strengthening SW flow will start to become established late in the period at the mid levels as trough approaches from the northwest. Deep layer southwesterly flow is expected for the middle of the week ahead of a trough becoming established just to our west.
Most precip should be out of our area by midnight as the mid/upper level trough axis moves east and the boundary layer continues to stabilize.
Our long-advertised, long-duration heat wave will arrive today, courtesy of a nearly stationary ridge of high pressure setting up just to our south, with Mon still looking the warmest. If the high temp OR low temp forecasts trend higher, we will consider an upgrade. Remember, heat stress on the human body is cumulative, and that will definitely be a factor at play this week with multiple days approaching/exceeding 100 degrees at lower elevations and then continued 90+ degree wx into the foreseeable future as that ridge remains in place. Monsoon moisture wrapping around the high will gradually increase this week, with the best push still expected Tue and Wed.
Weak ridging sliding through with more of a weak trough setting up this afternoon. Otherwise Wi will be situated between low pressure in the eastern Lakes region and high pressure slowly working in from the northern Plains.
The short term models continue to struggle with this activity as the a strong, long wave ridge continues build over California and Nevada. This ridge is countered by a long wave trough over the Great Lakes and into the Appalachian Mountains.
A succession of cold fronts over the next two days will place central Indiana within a stretch of below seasonal temperatures.
High temperatures will reach the lower 90s and lows tonight in the upper 50s/lower 60s.
400 AM CDT Sun Aug 16 2020 The highlights for this forecast package are: no chance for rain until mid week (I was going to say little to no chance but thought I'd try to be brave), hot over the western half of the forecast area with a few places nearing 100 degrees for daytime highs, comfortable at night with low dew point temperatures, low daytime relative humidity west half, and no significant winds (by North Dakota standards). This as the expansive western H5 ridge was building in.
Through Daybreak: Some short term model guidance continues to hint at the development of scattered showers and thunderstorms along the Missouri River as convergence on the low level jet increases. Generally though, clustered storms will develop and move south of the Highway 20 corridor by mid-afternoon.
and at the sfc there is a weak trough from it thru Baudette to west of Bemidji. As winds go near calm the placement of this trough becomes more difficult. Convergence along the trough was pretty meager as well and mean layer instability seemed a tad lower than progged.
Today Through Monday Night The large upper ridge continues over the desert southwest providing northwest flow aloft over the Plains. A cold front will move through central and south Arkansas today. High pressure will build into the area behind the front, which by 00Z should be near the Louisiana border.
359 AM CDT Sun Aug 16 2020 A cold front has pushed southeast of IL this morning, while weak high pressure will settle into MO and IL today and tonight. A secondary cold front will push south through central IL on Monday, and should pass through dry. Highs today and Monday will be in the mid 80s, with lows tonight in the lower 60s.
The next chance for precipitation comes Monday as a cold front pushes across the region. After the frontal passage, cooler and mainly dry conditions are expected. Surface cold front will finally arrive during the daytime hours on Monday.
318 AM CDT Sun Aug 16 2020 The CONUS will remain in a highly amplified mid level flow pattern throughout the short term period, with a strong ridge out west and troffing in the east. Lift will be aided by the introduction of another dry and cooler airmass. Afternoon highs will still be quite warm through Mon, then cool from the middle and upper 80s to the lower 80s for Tue. High amplitude pattern forecast across the CONUS, with a strong H5 ridge over the Southwest U. , and a persistent trough from the Great Lakes region, across the Ohio and Lower Mississippi Valley regions.
228 AM MDT Sun Aug 16 2020 Ridge of high pressure will bring sunny skies and hot temperatures to the region for the next few days. Moisture wrapping around the upper ridge will work into the area late in the day Monday and may produce an isolated thunderstorm over area mountains. Strongly inverted-v soundings with 700mb temperatures around +15c will prevent any precipitation over the lower elevations from this activity, but some gusty winds could work down into the foothills through Monday evening along with increased cloud cover.
Another hot and dry day is in store for South Texas today as the area remains situated in the southeastern periphery of a mid to upper level ridge located over the Desert Southwest. The pattern aloft becomes more unsettle tonight and Monday as a trough deepens across the state while the ridge amplifies farther west.
402 AM EDT Sun Aug 16 2020 A weak cold front will move through through the area today, bringing drier conditions to the region. Morning lows in the lower 70s. 5 inches behind the cold front. Even with upper troughing over the area, 500mb heights will still be around average which combined with increased solar insolation will lead to increased temperatures compared to Sunday, in the upper 80s to low 90s. Another weak surface cold front will descend into the southern Appalachians bringing some increased moisture, allowing for a chance for shower and storm development, mainly along the Piedmont. Models have trended slower in deepening the trough in response to the ridge in western CONUS.
A cold front is moving across the Mid-South early this morning. Patchy fog will either burn off or mix out as the cold front continues to press southeast early this morning.
Benign pattern with an H5 ridge upstream and broad high pressure locally. VFR conditions will prevail through the short term period as surface and mid-level high pressure suppresses moisture across the region. /issued 246 PM CDT Sat Aug 15 2020/ SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday Night): Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley will remain on the southern periphery of broad 500 mb high pressure centered over the Desert Southwest during the period.
A frontal frontal boundary will work into the northwest by the afternoon, and may provide just enough lift to generate an isolated storm or two, but moisture will be limited as the main concentration of moisture will be associated with the axis of the main trough to our east. Highs will be warmer today with readings in the upper 80s/low 90s in the northwest to mid 90s in the southeast. The upper 80s to near 90 degree mark will be almost to the I-85 corridor on Monday with the southeast still in the low to mid 90s.
1255 AM EDT Sun Aug 16 2020 A passing shower or storm can be expected with the passage of a cold front later tonight.
Otherwise a weak cold front will sink southward through western and north central Nebraska today. SFC based CAPE values around 2500 J/KG should materialize within the higher theta-e air along and just ahead of the front. As mentioned, this is only a weak cold front that crosses the area, and not expecting much of cool down at all temperature wise. Upper level high pressure expands and strengthens across the western CONUS during the upcoming week. North to northwest flow aloft across our region will prevail on the eastern periphery of the high. A cold front will sink south through western and north central Nebraska today.
At the surface, an area of high pressure across the Northern Plains will gradually move to the southeast.
Cold-air advection should be offset by decent mixing and clearing skies for a warmer day today.
417 AM MDT Mon Apr 18 2022 Synoptic Setup: Currently a trough is dipping down through the Canadian Prairie Provinces and the Dakotas into the Upper Mississippi Valley. A ridge runs from Arizona northward through the Intermountain west and British Columbia. Today through Tuesday: Expect dry conditions and a warming trend as the ridge out west comes by and crests across the region.
The surface anticyclone will remain anchored over the Mid-South Tuesday with temperatures again below normal.
Drier and cooler air will move in as this system exits today. If cloud cover clears our eastern counties late tonight and winds relax, we could see temperatures fall into the mid 30s to around freezing mainly on the Cumberland Plateau and our northern tier of counties. Overnight lows Tuesday night look warmer and less like frost, though temps will still be below normal.
441 AM MDT Mon Apr 18 2022 Relatively warm and dry high pressure will be present over the Northern Rockies today. Low clouds and precipitation associated with a Pacific cold front will move across the Northern Rockies from the west Monday evening through Tuesday morning. Snow levels will generally crash from 7000 feet to 3000 feet during this time, with middle and high elevation valleys to experience a bit of snow as the cold front passes. Tuesday daytime temperatures will cool to slightly below the seasonal average at low elevations, while struggling to warm above freezing at high elevations.
1020 AM EDT Mon Apr 18 2022 The KKEY 00Z sounding depicted light winds at the surface and significant moisture in the low levels of the atmosphere, with a precipitable water value near the 75th percentile. Gentle to moderate northerly breezes will prevail tonight, with freshening northeast breezes Tuesday as high pressure builds over the eastern United States.
Light to moderate WNW winds around 10-15 knots expected through the afternoon, then increasing to SCA level overnight as a tight pressure gradient between a frontal boundary that is moving through northern Florida and strong high pressure building in from the north sets up over the eastern gulf waters.
A cold front will move east of the area by late this morning. As the eastern states upper trough moves east an upper level northwest flow will develop across the area with building high pressure at the sfc. The resulting deep layer northerly flow will bring a cooler and much drier airmass into the area through Tuesday. High temperatures will be in the low to mid 70s northwest of I-65 to the upper 70s south and east of I-65.
A surface cold front has moved through the forecast area this morning and gusts behind it are expected to increase to 20-25 mph with gusts up towards 25-35 mph by late this morning as mixing increases. Light winds, mostly clear skies and cool high pressure should allow overnight lows to bottom out in the low 20s in our western counties to the upper 20s in the west, which looks to be one of our last cold mornings for a while.
552 AM CDT Mon Apr 18 2022 (Today and tonight) High pressure across the western U.
Mesoanalysis reveals a cold front currently draped across South- Central Texas. Meanwhile, another upper level short wave will ride around the periphery of the ridging to our southwest, providing enough support for some showers in the morning and potential for some storms in the afternoon as instability increases. High temps today will warm into the low 80s along the coast to the mid 90s out west. Cooler conditions are expected across our northern counties tonight as drier air settles in. Increasing cloud cover tomorrow will knock a few degrees off the highs with temperatures in the mid to upper 80s out west.
400 AM PDT Mon Apr 18 2022 The passage of a cold front Monday night will bring widespread rain to the Inland Northwest.
Precip will begin to taper off from the west after 12Z once the trough axis and front move into the Plateau and winds shift to a W-NW direction. The clouds and cold advection through the day will hold temperatures nearly steady in the 50s, but areas in the lee of the Plateau could see some partial clearing that brings temps up to the lower 60s this afternoon. Tonight, the closed upper low sags SE into the central Appalachians and upper OH Valley region, which affects our SW VA and NE TN counties with colder temps aloft. Surface temps should stay just above freezing, so no accumulation is expected.
Looking further out across the country a large upper level trough across the northern tier of the country will push east across the Great Lakes. At the surface, high pressure will fill into the region through the afternoon as northwest flow takes over. Cluster analysis supports upper level ridging through the forecast period leading to quiet weather.
406 AM PDT Mon Apr 18 2022 High pressure will provide for dry weather along with a warming trend through today.
Across Arkansas, northerly winds will keep afternoon high temperatures across the state on average 5 degrees cooler than normal. furthermore Fulton county could see temperatures dive into the low to middle 30's on Tuesday morning possibly prompting a Frost Advisory or subsequent Freeze Watch. Afternoon high temperatures will reflect similar results to Monday w/ temperatures on average 5 degrees cooler than normal for this time of the year.
Cold front across the Deep South approaching north FL this morning continuing into north-central FL this afternoon and across the central peninsula later this evening and overnight. Veering winds ahead of approaching cold front, W/NW 10- 15 kts. NW/N winds increasing behind the cold front overnight to 10-15 kts, 15 kts and gusty along the coast with gradually improving sky conditions. Approaching cold front will move into the northern waters this afternoon and points further south this evening and overnight.
(Today and tonight) High pressure across the western U.
Warm, dry, and breezy conditions persist today under high pressure.
608 AM CDT Mon Apr 18 2022 Key Messages: - Freezing temperatures expected again tonight into early Tuesday morning. Areas of northern and northeastern Missouri have fallen to/below the freezing mark, likewise will keep the freeze headline in place for this morning. Look for temperatures to fall to or below freezing in most areas of the CWA overnight tonight - warming above freezing by mid-morning Tuesday. Pattern undergoes changes by mid-week, bringing in warmer conditions and chances for precipitation.
High pressure will begin to build into the area today, as winds shift to the NW ushering in a cooler, drier air mass. However, the breezy northerly flow and cloud cover will make for a pretty cool day as highs will struggle to climb above the lower 60s. Highs will only peak in the lower 60s once again.
/22/ Today and Tonight: Cooler than normal and dry through the period. Early morning surface analysis had the cold front across our southeast; nearly along the Interstate 59 corridor. No precipitation was noted along the front on local radars so the cold front is expected to clear our CWA during the next hour or two without any additional precipitation in our CWA. This will help maintain cooler than normal temperatures as well.
629 AM EDT Mon Apr 18 2022 Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb closed low and trough off the Pacific NW and a trough in the upper Mississippi River Valley this morning. This eastern trough will head southeast and dig into the upper Great Lakes today and start to become negatively tilted by this afternoon.
303 AM MDT Mon Apr 18 2022 It will be a bit warmer this afternoon over the region, but still below normal for this time of year.
Persistent southerly winds are expected Tuesday, with temperatures warming to near 70 out west - though only in the low 40s in western Minnesota.
255 AM PDT Mon Apr 18 2022 The passage of a cold front Monday night will bring widespread rain to the Inland Northwest.
Despite an approaching cold front, there has been no shower or thunderstorm activity along the front itself. Models still show some scattered showers developing towards sunrise just ahead of the cold front, so will keep a chance of showers in the forecast through the morning hours. Satellite imagery shows an extensive area of low clouds behind the cold front, stretching all the way back to east Texas. Surface winds will become brisk behind the cold front, gusting 20-25 mph at times this afternoon. Much cooler and drier air will overspread the area tonight and Tuesday.
324 AM MDT Mon Apr 18 2022 A moderate northwesterly flow aloft over northern CO will weaken a bit as a ridge of high pressure aloft moves over the region. |On Tuesday the upper ridge shifts east of Colorado with developing southwest flow aloft ahead of next Pacific storm system.
Band of light to moderate rain is trekking eastward across the Ohio Valley in conjunction with an inverted sfc trof that continues to sharpen as it makes its way out of Middle Tennessee and into eastern Kentucky. Deep upper low over the Great Lakes will keep cyclonic flow through much of the column, so we'll hang on to quite a bit of cloud cover.
313 PM EDT Mon Apr 18 2022 Snow will continue late this afternoon/this evening, focusing more and more into the Thumb region as low pressure lifts into Southeast Ontario this evening. Will maintain the Winter Weather Advisory for the Thumb region into tonight as snow looks to continue and accumulating potential will increase as temperatures edge down into the lower 30s.
Broad ridging over the Four Corners states will move east over the area tonight into early Tuesday morning. A surface cold front currently extends from near Anniston southwest to near Mobile and will continue moving east, clearing the state later this afternoon. Expect mostly sunny skies on Tuesday with highs ranging from the lower 60s far north to readings near 70 southeast.
Meanwhile a sfc lee trough will intensify east of the mtns.
Temps will generally remain below normal, with highs in the low to mid 70s and east winds near 10 mph.
The next weather system will approach western Montana and central Idaho late tonight into Tuesday morning, pushing a cold front through the region.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 40 64 41 71 55 / 0 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 37 60 38 73 52 / 0 0 0 0 10 Oak Ridge, TN 37 61 38 71 52 / 0 0 0 0 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 35 55 34 70 47 / 10 0 0 0 10.
931 AM MDT Mon Apr 18 2022 Morning water vapor showing the upper ridge over the region this morning which allows warm and dry conditions to prevail today. A strong upper low, currently off the coast, is expected to push the next cold front into Eastern Oregon overnight and through the Idaho zones after sunrise Tuesday. A cold front with rain and snow will move into eastern Oregon late this evening and push into Idaho overnight.
All data is fairly consistent decreasing the low cloud cover from west to east this afternoon. At 12z Tuesday, the axis should be just to our west from the lower MS Valley up to the Upper Midwest region.
A negatively tilted upper trof over the eastern states into the Bahamas advances slowly eastward through the period allowing for a fairly zonal flow pattern to evolve over the forecast area.
Warmer temperatures are on the way, with highs reaching into the 70s and 80s by the weekend.
231 PM MDT Mon Apr 18 2022 Fairly active flow pattern will persist in the period as a deep upper trough digs into the western CONUS and eventually supports another deep sfc cyclone in the Northern Plains. Best chance for precip will be over the higher terrain of NE WY and the northern BH, with sct activity elsewhere.
1133 AM PDT Mon Apr 18 2022 The passage of a cold front Monday night will bring widespread rain to the Inland Northwest.
As high pressure makes further ewd progress and leeside pressures fall, we'll see onshore winds resume and increase Tuesday (becoming fairly breezy from mid morning onward, actually).
309 PM CDT Mon Apr 18 2022 The 12Z and later guidance has trended a couple of degrees cooler for lows tonight. The HREF is not excited about it, and as we just stated the low-levels will be quite dry, so limited this to a slight chance of showers north of I-64 after midnight Tuesday night.