Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
240 PM CDT SUN JUN 7 2015 THE 19Z SURFACE THROUGH UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATED THAT THE FORECAST AREA TODAY WAS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A RIDGE AXIS THAT WAS EXTENDING SOUTHWEST OUT OF THE APPALACHIANS INTO THE REGION. THE CAPPING OCCURRING IN THE LOWER LAYERS WAS RESULTING IN PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. THE SHORT TERM MODELS INDICATED THAT THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE MIDWEST. WILL BEGIN TO MORE PROGRESSIVELY MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY BY 18Z MONDAY.
359 PM CDT SUN JUN 7 2015 UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO HOLD IN PLACE OVER OVER THE FORECAST CWA. RIDGE WILL SLOWLY ERODE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
75 ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT OR WARM SECTOR THIS MORNING. CONVECTION TO BE ON THE INCREASE AGAIN FOR MONDAY AS THE COOLER 500 TEMPS WITH THE FALLING HEIGHTS WILL CREATE UNSTABLE CONDITIONS.
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE PANHANDLES LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY HOLD TOGETHER LONG ENOUGH ALONG THIS COLD FRONT TO AFFECT THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO MONDAY EVENING AND NIGHT AS CONVECTION SLIDES OUT OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NM AND SOUTHERN CO ABOARD A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
THE UPPER RIDGING SHOULD SUPPRESS ANY ACTIVITY OUTSIDE OF THE ERN MTNS AND WITH LOSS OF HEATING.
231 PM EDT SUN JUN 7 2015 A WARM FRONT CROSSES TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATE MONDAY.
1212 PM CDT SUN JUN 7 2015 FOLLOWING THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME WILL BE IN PLACE GOING INTO THE WORK WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 70S WITH LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AT 5 TO 10 MPH. LOWS GENERALLY MILD IN THE LOW TO MID 50S. WARMER. THE FORECAST AREA BECOMES SITUATED IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT.
329 PM CDT SUN JUN 7 2015 20Z/3PM RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING TO INITIATE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL WILL LINGER IN THE SOUTHEAST TOMORROW FOLLOWED BY A WEAK TROUGH THAT WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE GRT LKS REGION TOMORROW AFTERNOON THROUGH TOMORROW EVENING. AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TAKES HOLD OVER THE AREA AND TROUGH DEVELOPS OUT IN THE PLAINS. HOWEVER AS THE ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THIS AFTERNOON WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTH CAROLINA AND EASTERN GEORGIA OVERNIGHT. CURRENTLY WARMER MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES (5H TEMPS AT -8C) AND SUBSIDENCE ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE HAVE MARKEDLY LIMITED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. THE MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL HANG ON LONG ENOUGH TO INITIALLY KEEP CONVECTION SUPPRESSED WHICH WILL IN RETURN ALLOW FOR SOME GOOD HEATING/DESTABILIZATION OF INLAND LOCATIONS. IF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH IS ABLE TO REACH OUR AREA BY THE TIME THIS COLLISION OCCURS. IF THE RIDGE IS SLOWER TO MOVE EAST.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THE AIRMASS WARM AND DRY. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL KEEP THE AIRMASS DRY. UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND MONTANA TODAY BRINGING NORTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND TEMPERATURES ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES. WITH RIDGE STEERING INCOMING WEATHER SYSTEMS AROUND MONTANA.
1227 PM CDT SUN JUN 7 2015 HIGH PRESSURE TO PROVIDE LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE TERMINAL FORECAST PERIOD.
255 PM EDT SUN JUN 7 2015 A WARM FRONT CROSSES TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATE MONDAY.
407 PM EDT SUN JUN 7 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE OHIO VALLEY FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND MONDAY.
447 PM EDT SUN JUN 7 2015 LOW PRESSURE CROSSING SOUTHERN QUEBEC OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY WILL LIFT A WARM FRONT INTO THE REGION.
AT 12Z SUNDAY AN UPPER LOW WAS LOCATED OVER SOUTHWEST UTAH WITH A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN ARIZONA TO EASTERN KANSAS. EMBEDDED IN THIS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW A 500MB THERMAL TROUGH WAS LOCATED OVER NEW MEXICO. AS OF 14Z CONVECTION WAS ALREADY APPEARING OVER NORTH CENTRAL NEW MEXICO AHEAD OF THIS THERMAL TROUGH. ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AT 12Z SUNDAY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDED FROM NORTH DAKOTA TO EASTERN WYOMING. A 700MB TROUGH/BAROCLINIC ZONE STRETCHED FROM NORTHEAST COLORADO TO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS A SURFACE COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED FROM EAST CENTRAL COLORADO TO SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA.
338 PM CDT SUN JUN 7 2015 SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS THE COLD FRONT IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON. THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NORTH OF THE COLD FRONT AND THEN AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES TO THE SOUTH THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD PUSH TO THE SOUTH AS WELL.
243 PM PDT SUN JUN 7 2015 WARMING AND DRYING TREND CONTINUES INTO MONDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
401 PM CDT SUN JUN 7 2015 UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS STILL DOMINANT ACROSS THE REGION BUT SHOWING SIGNS OF FLATTENING OUT AND RETREATING SLOWLY TO THE SW. A FEW SHWRS AND TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE FAR ERN AND SRN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. AS THE UPPER RIDGE FURTHER RETREATS THIS WEEK. AN UPPER TROF AND WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROP SWRD AND INCREASE OUR RAIN CHANCES FROM MONDAY THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.
320 PM EDT SUN JUN 7 2015 AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK WARM FRONT JUST TO THE WEST OF THE REGION AND LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. TONIGHT ALL EYES TURN TO LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT THAT WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS SOUTH AND EAST. THIS PROGRESSION WILL BE AIDED BY AMPLIFIED TROUGH THAT MOVES ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. HOWEVER GIVEN THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH HAIL THREAT GIVEN THE HIGHER FZL ABOVE 10 KFT AND WBZ MOSTLY ABOVE 10 KFT.
316 PM EDT SUN JUN 7 2015 * TSTORMS FOCUS INTERIOR/GULF THIS AFTERNOON AND MONDAY SHIFTS EAST TUE-WED * HAZY WITH LIMITED TSTORMS LATE THIS WEEK; CONTINUING THE DRY RAINY SEASON START THE MID LEVEL TROUGH WHICH WAS OVER FLORIDA THE PAST FEW DAYS LIES TO OUR EAST OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THAT CONTINUES TO PULL AWAY WITH WEAK RIDGING BUILDING IN AHEAD OF ANOTHER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE MIDWEST WHICH WILL MOVE TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD TUE- WED. BUT A NOTABLE SW STEERING WIND ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS OFF THE GFS AND ECMWF ENSUES ON TUE AS TROUGHING MOVES TO THE U.
MUST GET THE HIGH ELEVATION SNOWPACK TO COME DOWN THE SLOPES BEFORE WE RELAX.
126 PM CDT Sun Jun 7 2015 A cold front which is currently located over Nebraska will slowly move southeastward today. But will not rule out a brief tornado or two because of the low level jet overnight across the Missouri Ozarks with winds at 5K feet will be about 40 knots with the low level jet. The storms will be near the Highway 54 corridor by midnight and the I-44 corridor by 3 am and slowly weakening.
210 PM EDT SUN JUN 7 2015 SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES MONDAY. CLOUDS FORMING OVER SOUTHWEST PA AND OVER THE MOUNTAIN RIDGES OVER PA/WV/MD. FREEZING AND WET BULB ZERO LEVELS ARE NORTH OF 10KFT NEGATING A LARGE HAIL THREAT.
VFR THIS AFTERNOON OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. HIGH PRESSURE IS LOOSENING ITS HOLD ON LFT/ARA TAF SITES. OTHERWISE LOOKING FOR A FEW STORMS TODAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SHIFT BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST. AN UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVING INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL INDUCE A WEAKNESS IN THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ON MONDAY RESULTING IN SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.
UPPER RIDGE BEGINNING TO RELAX A BIT OVER OHIO AND NORTHERN TENNESSEE VALLEYS. WARM FRONT DRAPED ACROSS EASTERN IOWA DOWN INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS.
CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TONIGHT ACROSS THE REGION AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINED THE DOMINATE FEATURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS MORNING. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN MIDWEST WAS PROGRESSING SOUTH SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO SINK SOUTHWARD WITH THE WAVE TROF AXIS AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
256 PM CDT SUN JUN 7 2015 THE COLD FRONT. IN THE LOWER 70S. THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS LOOSING OUT AS WINDS JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT BECOME WESTERLY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S ARE WITHIN THE MIDDLE OF A GUIDANCE BLEND.
259 PM MDT SUN JUN 7 2015 High pressure will continue to build across north central Idaho and western Montana today through the beginning of the week as the ridge currently located off the West Coast moves east.
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY IMAGERY SHOWS BROAD TROF TRANSLATING INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS. EFFECTIVELY PINCHING OFF THE LOW ACROSS THE SWRN CONUS. INSTABILITY IN PLACE THIS MORNING IS MATCHING UP WITH A WEAK SFC FRONT ACROSS SOUTH CNTRL WY AND THE EXITING PORTION OF THE TROF MENTIONED ABOVE. THIS INSTABILITY IS SLOWLY BEING REPLACED AND CAPPED OFF FROM THE NORTH AS THE UPR RIDGE BEGINS TO EFFECT THE FA. WARMER AND DRIER OVERALL. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC UNDER INCREASINGLY STRONG RIDGING ALOFT WILL PREVENT THUNDERSTORM INITIATION ACROSS MOST OF THE FA THRU THE DAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE HIGHER MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS WHICH MAY JUST BE ABOVE THE CAPPING INVERSION.
FOR MONDAY CAPE VALUES INCREASE FURTHER AS UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO DAMPEN WITH APPROACH OF MIDWEST TROUGH.
A NEBULOUS WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE IS POKING INTO OUR AREA.
/ISSUED 348 AM CDT Sun Jun 7 2015/ Upper ridge continues to be dominate wx feature for W TX and SE NM. Elsewhere an upper low currently over S NV will shear apart with some energy retrograding back to the west and a new low forming off the coast of California. Eventually this low moves east and may be strong enough to displace the ridge back to the SW. With the upper ridge over the area will continue to have little change in the day to day wx pattern for a few more days. Even with high pressure aloft. However models continue to develop decent amounts of precipitation over the higher elevations so will leave afternoon/evening pops in for the west the next couple of days. Models pull Blanca around the west side of the ridge and up through the Gulf of California.
EARLY AFTERNOON CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN. SCATTERED TSRA ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT.
333 PM CDT Sun Jun 7 2015 (Tonight and Monday) The upper ridge which has been in place over Texas for the past several days will begin to shift to the west overnight and Monday, as an upper trough moves southeast across parts of the Midwest and Great Lakes. By early Monday evening the ridge axis should be centered over New Mexico and northern Mexico. Trailing portion of the cold front with the aforementioned upper trough will sag south of the Red River Monday afternoon, and may be near the northern border of Haskell and Throckmorton Counties by early Monday evening. With slight mid-level cooling and the approach of the cold front, a few showers and thunderstorms will be possible in the far northern part of our area Monday afternoon.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL FLATTEN DURING THIS FORECAST WITH LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY FL180 WINDS TODAY INCREASING TO 25 KNOTS BY 09/00Z (MONDAY 7PM CDT). INCREASED CLOUDS WILL LIKELY KEEP OUR AFTERNOON HIGHS A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN THIS WEEKEND. EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED THE EXPECTED ELONGATION OF THE UPPER LOW OVER CALIFORNIA. AS THIS ENERGY EJECTS EASTWARD IT WILL CAUSE A WEAKENING OF OUR PESKY UPPER RIDGE OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL MAKE ITS WAY OVER THE RIDGE AS THE RIDGE AXIS RETROGRADES WESTWARD.
157 PM EDT SUN JUN 7 2015 SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES MONDAY. CLOUDS FORMING OVER SOUTHWEST PA AND OVER THE MOUNTAIN RIDGES OVER PA/WV/MD. FREEZING AND WET BULB ZERO LEVELS ARE NORTH OF 10KFT NEGATING A LARGE HAIL THREAT.
207 PM EDT SUN JUN 7 2015 AFTER A SUNNY SUNDAY, A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES, SPREADING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO NY AND PA LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.
314 PM EDT SUN JUN 7 2015 A COLD FRONT OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE EAST OVER THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW THE COLD FRONT AND LINGER OVER THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER SOUTHERN UTAH WILL DISSIPATE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL START BUILDING OVER UTAH ON MONDAY BRINGING DRIER CONDITIONS TO THE REGION FOR THE EARLY PORTION OF THE WEEK.
COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGHS ON MON. OR MAYBE WE ARE JUST LEFT IN A SUMMER PATTERN ON WEST SIDE OF BROAD UPPER RIDGE. -HOWERTON VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH A SLOW SOUTHWARD MOVING COLD FRONT OVER CENTRAL KANSAS.
THINK THE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS PORTION OF THE FRONT. AS THE LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT INCREASES. THIS WILL PROBABLY LEAD TO SOME SORT OF FORWARD PROPAGATING MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM (MCS) MOVING EAST OUT OF THE HIGH PLAINS AND ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS EVENING OR OVERNIGHT. WITH UPPER RIDGING ACROSS THE PLAINS. KETCHAM VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH A SLOW SOUTHWARD MOVING COLD FRONT OVER CENTRAL KANSAS.
231 PM EDT SUN JUN 7 2015 LOW PRESSURE CROSSING SOUTHERN QUEBEC OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY WILL LIFT A WARM FRONT INTO THE REGION.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL ACROSS THE AREA. THE CENTER OF 500 MB HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETROGRADE SLIGHTLY FROM THE SOUTHERN HALF OF TEXAS TO THE NORTH-CENTRAL PORTION OF MEXICO. LIMITED TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL CONFINE CONVECTION NEARSHORE AND OVER THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS ON SUNDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. MID/UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE WILL EXTEND EASTWARD OVER THE SOUTHEAST US. UPPER RIDGE OVER THE REGION WILL SHIFT EAST AND OFFSHORE ON MONDAY IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER TROUGH EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY OVER THE UPPER OH RIVER VALLEY/NORTHEAST STATES ON MONDAY. WITH A COLD FRONT SPREADING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE OH/TN VALLEYS BETTER MOISTURE RETURN WILL REMAIN ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE. AS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE AREA.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GIVE SUNNY AND WARM WEATHER ONE MORE DAY MONDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL EXTEND SOUTHWEST INTO THE REGION TODAY. THEN SHIFT OFFSHORE MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. HEIGHTS HAVE INCREASED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS AS BROAD RIDGING EXTENDS EASTWARD FROM THE MID/UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. EASTERLY-NORTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE LAST NIGHT'S BACK-DOOR FRONT WILL RESULT IN SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES TODAY. A SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND OHIO VALLEY WILL PUSH THE RIDGE FURTHER TO OUR EAST. THE GFS/ECMWF GENERALLY AGREE THAT A RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE DEEP SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST STATES BY THE END OF THE WEEK. SREF PROBABILITY PLACE THE HIGHEST CHANCES ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
12Z MODEL GUIDANCE DID NOT DIFFER MUCH FROM PREVIOUS RUNS STILL ADVERTISING INCREASING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TUE-WED WITH GUID POPS FROM 50-60 PCT AS A 500 MB S/W TROUGH DROP SOUTH TOWARD N FL AND THE NRN GULF COAST. INCREASING MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AND SW FLOW THROUGH A DEEP LAYER SHOULD PORTEND A FEW ACTIVE DAYS WITH CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE WRN PENINSULA/INTERIOR BY LATE MORNING AND MOVING TOWARD THE EAST COAST EACH DAY BY LATE AFTERNOON.
THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 500 MB HEIGHTS SHOWS RIDGE PARKED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS KEEPING A PERFECT SUMMER LIKE WEATHER THIS SUN AFTERNOON. THIS HIGH PRESSURE HAS ALSO CREATED A VERY RELAX PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS WITH A MODERATE SOUTHEAST FLOW. LIGHT WINDS RETURN AS THE GRADIENT WEAKENS WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS. 5 WITH GFS IN THE HIGHER SIDE. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL KEEP THE SAME TREND REMAINING IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
145 PM EDT SUN JUN 7 2015 ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. A COLD FRONT WILL THE PUSH DOWN THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND USHER IN A SLIGHTLY COOLER AIRMASS FOR THE START OF THE WORK WEEK. ALTHOUGH IT WILL ALSO BE TOUGH TO RULE OUT AN ISOLATED TORNADO GIVEN THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR VALUES. WE WILL SEE REDEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
305 PM CDT Sun Jun 7 2015 The main threat in the short term will revolve around thunderstorms expected to develop this afternoon out ahead of a cold front across northern Missouri and northeastern Kansas. Couple that with a slow moving cold front dropping through the area, unidirectional shear paralleling the front and very wet antecedent conditions and, training storms producing heavy rain may be possible. The upper level trough will move through the region by tomorrow morning leaving the area in benign northwest flow aloft.
416 PM EDT SUN JUN 7 2015 SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. DEW POINTS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF COLD FRONT WITH CAT POPS CONTINUED DURING THE DAY MONDAY AS THE FRONT CROSSES.
325 PM EDT SAT OCT 31 2015 AN ADVANCING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGH THIS EVENING BUILDING IN FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. EXPECT INITIALLY WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES UNDER LIGHT SOUTHERLY WARM AIR ADVECTION THROUGH THE WEEKEND EVEN AS THE WEAK FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
326 PM MDT SAT OCT 31 2015 TEMPORARY RIDGING OVER THE AREA TODAY WILL GIVE WAY TO MORE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN LEE TROFFING ACROSS THE PLAINS. ENHANCED WESTERLY DRAINAGE WINDS ALONG THE LOWER EASTERN SLOPES. AND WARMER MIN TEMPS FOR THESE AREAS. AND COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FREEZING TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE PLAINS AGAIN TONIGHT. SUNDAY LOOKS EVEN WARMER THAN TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE 70S ACROSS THE PLAINS. SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 25-30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS AND LOWER EASTERN SLOPES OF THE UPPER ARKANSAS RIVER IN THE AFTERNOON.
THERE ARE TWO AREAS OF INTEREST OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST THIS MORNING-THE UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL TRACK OVERHEAD THIS AFTERNOON AND A SECONDARY UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS THAT WILL SWING THROUGH WI OVERNIGHT. SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE TROUGH AXIS WILL END THE DRIZZLE/RAIN CHANCES FROM WEST TO EAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THAT SECONDARY UPPER TROUGH WILL CLEAR OUT THE STRATUS AND THAT IS PROJECTED TO MOVE WEST TO EAST THROUGH SOUTHERN WI BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 6 AM. MOIST ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE WITHIN THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT OF THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH FROM THE PLAINS. SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING WILL INCREASE LATE TNT AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH. TEMPS WILL FALL TO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S BY SUN AM.
ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER STREAMING ALONG A JET FROM TX TO THE GREAT LAKE REGION WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WHILE AT THE LOWER LEVELS. COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION WILL QUICKLY EXIT THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST SUNDAY MORNING. STRONG SYNOPTIC SUBSIDENCE WILL DEVELOP ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH PASSAGE. MODEL CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH IN THIS TIME PERIOD FOR A LARGE AMPLITUDE RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AS A LARGE TROUGH CARVES OUT OVER THE WEST.
Look for a drier but cooler trend by midweek followed by another wet system by the end of the week. The cold front will drop into SE Washington this evening and then exit the region overnight leading to rain becoming more confined to the mountains although areas of stratus will linger as a moist boundary layer persists.
ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER STREAMING ALONG A JET FROM TX TO THE GREAT LAKE REGION WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WHILE AT THE LOWER LEVELS. COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION WILL QUICKLY EXIT THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST SUNDAY MORNING. STRONG SYNOPTIC SUBSIDENCE WILL DEVELOP ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH PASSAGE.
THE GEM/EC/GFS/JMA (JAPANESE) ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE IN UNISON ON A LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE WRN USA AND A RIDGE OVER THE E THRU THIS FCST. ALOFT: SAT IMAGERY SHOWS A TROF W OF CANADA. THIS TROF WILL DROP S INTO THE LONGWAVE TROF POSITION MON OVER THE WRN USA. THIS TROF WILL INTRODUCE COOLER TEMPS BUT WITH NO SENSIBLE WX. THE RANGE OF POSSIBILITIES FOR TIMING/PLACEMENT AND INTENSITY OF THIS 2ND TROF RESULTS IN SUBSTANTIAL FCST UNCERTAINTY. PROBABLY 20F WARMER THAN NORMAL. THU: INCREASING CLOUDS AND MUCH COOLER AS TEMPS TURN BELOW NORMAL. THE 12Z/00Z EC BRINGS THE MAIN UPR TROF THRU FRI NIGHT OR SAT.
430 PM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015 RADARS SHOW PATCHY LIGHT RAIN DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DUE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AND UPWARD FORCING OF MOIST MID LEVEL AIRMASS. UPPER AIR ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWED A TROUGH FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE BAJA PENINSULA WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER TEXAS. THE COLD FRONT HAS PASSED THROUGH OUR CWA AND WINDS WERE FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS TEXAS DURING THIS PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA BRINGING DRY WEATHER.
LOW CLOUDS HAVE PUSHED EAST OF THE REGION AND DRY AIR AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE EXT 24 HOURS. BEHIND THIS LOW CLOUD DECK. SURFACE WINDS RETURN TO A SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION BY SUNDAY TO ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S.
WINDS SHOULD LIGHTEN AS MESO LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. BELIEVE MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD BE RAIN FREE FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY REGION.
330 PM PDT SAT OCT 31 2015 A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST WILL BRING DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND.
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO SE GA SUNDAY NIGHT.
THE UPPER LOW OVER W TX IS CUT OFF AND WILL ONLY VERY SLOWLY MEANDER EASTWARD W/ ELEVATED CBS BY 01/06-12Z. /ISSUED 1136 AM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015/ WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS WEST TEXAS THIS MORNING.
200 PM PDT SAT OCT 31 2015 HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND WEAKENING OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BRING CLEAR SKIES THROUGH SUNDAY.
Cooler and wetter weather starts Sunday as a Pacific storm system moves into the West Coast. It will bring the first significant snow event of the season to the high Sierra with widespread rain elsewhere. High pressure ridging is bringing another sunny day of well above normal temperatures.
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWED A TROUGH FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE BAJA PENINSULA WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER TEXAS. THE COLD FRONT HAS PASSED THROUGH OUR CWA AND WINDS WERE FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS TEXAS DURING THIS PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA BRINGING DRY WEATHER.
LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED IN NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA WITH A SURFACE TROF ACROSS EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE EVEN WARMER. WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S TO LOWER 70S IN MOST AREAS.
1227 PM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015 06Z SFC DATA HAS HIGH PRESSURE ON THE EAST COAST WITH A STORM SYSTEM IN CENTRAL TEXAS. THE WET GROUND SHOULD HELP HOLD TEMPERATURES UP SOMEWHAT WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTHWEST TEXAS WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EASTWARD AND ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL BE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA AS THE HIGHEST MOISTURE CONTENT WILL BE LOCATED OVER THAT REGION. RAIN GRADUALLY TAPERS OFF FROM WEST TO EAST DURING SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST.
118 PM EDT SAT OCT 31 2015 HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE THROUGH TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE PASSING NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY WILL BRING A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE AREA.
Nice Clearing line is co-located with 500 mb trough axis this afternoon over eastern Kansas. Should see fairly rapid clearing from west to east through the evening across the forecast area as the trough continues eastward progress toward the Ohio Valley. An upper level low pressure system will pass on by to the south of the region on Sunday.