Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
A huge dome of high pressure aloft centered over the lower and mid MS River Valley will bring a continuation of high and dry conditions with above normal temperatures right through the weekend.
602 PM CDT Fri May 21 2021 GOES water vapor imagery continued to show a plume of deep moisture extending northward from the Gulf Coast through the Upper MS Valley on the western fringe of strong mid-level ridging across the Ohio Valley. Given the low-level shear, though, any stronger more persistent cells could at least exhibit transient rotation. As ridging builds across the area tonight into Saturday, GEFS integrated water vapor transport shows a relaxing of the moisture fetch into the area. The upper level ridging the builds over the Midwest for the weekend will get flattened as the western U. upper level low lifts to the north/northeast.
The upper low is now washing out and the upper ridge that has formed over SE conus is expanding westward and will be doing a fine job in suppressing our chance for shwrs and isold Tstorms this wknd. However, the trough will gradually weaken as a large upper ridge across the SE CONUS slowly retrogrades westward through the Lower MS Valley and into our eastern zones. By Saturday, the Southeast upper ridge will continue to build westward into the region bringing drier air into our eastern zones. However, dry conditions will return areawide by Saturday night, as the ridge continues to build westward into the region.
Additional development in western Missouri/Arkansas may nudge its way in to the far western CWA toward sunrise, and linger into Saturday morning, but the high pressure to our southwest will continue to keep much of the forecast area dry. Expansive high pressure over the mid atlantic seaboard drifting toward Tennessee over the upcoming day and southerly flow/embedded disturbances rotating around the western/northern periphery of the associated upper level ridge will be the dominant features for the upcoming day. Subsidence associated with the high will keep most of central/SE IL dry, although some showers are possible as far east as the Illinois River, mainly this afternoon and evening, and early in the day Saturday. Warm air mass associated with the high will keep lows mild, in the low to mid 60s, and highs quite warm, mainly mid 80s.
A large high pressure system across the region will continue to provide dry and mild conditions. Strong upper ridge over the region will slowly move southwest across the Tennessee valley keeping conditions dry. Surface ridging will also remain over the area keeping winds light and less than 10kts.
With a fairly large high pressure system over the area, the heat will get even hotter on Sunday, with low 90s all around.
WIth dewpoints in the lower 60s and upper 50s, it should be a nice evening and overnight for the ArkLaMiss region. Dry weather will continue into tomorrow and much of the week with high pressure in control of our weather. A plume of moisture associated with prolonged troughing on the western flank of a powerful deep layer ridge moves west tonight and the core of the ridge moves closer. Subsidence and surface divergence will accompany the deep ridge as it moves nearer which should limit cloud cover and lower rain chances to near zero. Look for an unseasonably large variation between overnight lows tonight and tomorrow night compared to highs Saturday as the lowered humidity will enable both better cooling at night and better heating during the day.
/Today through Sunday/ Ridging over the eastern CONUS will continue to shift westward, shoving more Gulf moisture further into our East Texas zones by the end of the weekend. Sunday afternoon highs will return to a similar range of upper 70s to upper 80s, however, more locations will skew on the higher end of that range compared to the previous afternoon as high pressure continues to shift into the area.
128 AM EDT Sat May 22 2021 A large area of high pressure will drift from the Ohio Valley today into the Tennessee Valley for Saturday and Sunday.
As high pressure, both at the surface and aloft, expands westward precip chances will be confined primarily to far western portions of the area. Similar conditions will be seen on Sunday, with ridging remaining nearly overhead a few more locations may approach 90 F by the afternoon hours.
841 PM PDT Fri May 21 2021 An area of low pressure will impact the region through the weekend. A large upper level low pressure system continues to influence our weather and is currently centered over the Great Basin. Unsettled weather continues to pinwheel around this low while cooler than normal temperatures are being reported in our neck of the woods. Another chilly night is on tap for us although guidance indicates that it will be a good 5 degrees warmer than what was observed yesterday. Wilson 00Z TAFS: Disturbances rotating around the outer edges of an upper level low currently centered near Nevada will bring clouds at various levels over the aviation area into tomorrow.
This is thanks to high pressure across the southeast U. Influence from the high pressure from early in the weekend will quickly depart Sunday as a closed 500 hPa low and attendant cold front over the western CONUS begin progressing into the Rockies and and Plains.
920 PM PDT Fri May 21 2021 The low pressure system currently bringing gusty winds, cooler conditions, and areas of showers in the mountains and high desert will continue to move east into tomorrow. Weak troughing starting mid- week will bring an increase in low cloud coverage and temperatures at or below seasonal averages. As the upper level low pressure system continues to move east, an area of weak ridging will move over California.
Discussion: A blocking upper ridge of high pressure centered across the area will retrograde back southwest placing southwest Virginia and northeast Tennessee under northwest flow aloft. For Tonight, upper and surface ridging will persist producing dry conditions.
253 AM EDT Sat May 22 2021 High pressure shifts east a bit today and allows for thicker cloud cover. Showers and a few storms possible across the north as the high shifts farther west Sunday. Nearly stacked high pressure system is prog to drift to the WSW of the CWA today/tonight.
Much cooler air is behind this boundary, and it appears highs will only top out in the 60s across north central SD. Focus will then shift to Sunday, as the surface boundary begins to move back northward as a warm front. On Sunday night, the major trof over the western CONUS will be lifting n/ne into the Western High Plains, and then into Canada. At the surface a warm front will likely lift across the region Sunday afternoon and night, as a cold front comes sweeping into the western CWA during the evening.
Not much change in the large scale pattern between today and Saturday as the forecast area remains between upper level ridging over the eastern CONUS and upper level troughing over the west. By Sunday, the aforementioned trough over the western CONUS will start to shift northeastward over the northern Rockies. Plenty of moisture will remain in place ahead of this system and should eventually see thunderstorm development along a cold front stretching from North Dakota to the Nebraska panhandle.
East of the front, much warmer air noted. Zooming out water vapour loop had upper low over northeast NV with deep southerly flow aloft over the CWA. Today/tonight, upper low elongates to extend from WA to UT as southerly flow aloft relaxes some over the CWA.
An expansive, vertically stacked, ridge across the eastern US continues to provide warm and dry conditions this afternoon. This will occur in response to the upper ridge drifting southwest, with an increase in mid-upper level clouds likely. Remaining dry/warm otherwise with tomorrow's highs likely a degree or two cooler thanks to more cloud cover.
1050 PM CDT Fri May 21 2021 GOES water vapor imagery continued to show a plume of deep moisture extending northward from the Gulf Coast through the Upper MS Valley on the western fringe of strong mid-level ridging across the Ohio Valley. Given the low-level shear, though, any stronger more persistent cells could at least exhibit transient rotation. As ridging builds across the area tonight into Saturday, GEFS integrated water vapor transport shows a relaxing of the moisture fetch into the area. The upper level ridging the builds over the Midwest for the weekend will get flattened as the western U. upper level low lifts to the north/northeast.
As a result, have kept the low 15-20 percent pops near the Colorado border for any storms that develop this afternoon across Colorado and barely work to move east towards the state line. The continued southerly winds and increasing cloud cover will lead to mild overnight minimums with values only bottoming out in the low to mid 60s. In addition, cooling associated with height falls is expected ahead of a UL longwave trof. The best chance of storms will continue to remain across the western zones with convection developing across the higher terrain and then slowly drifting east. The lower pops cover the situation well enough for now.
Upper level high pressure is centered almost on top of the Mid-South this morning with just a few high clouds and temps in the 60s.
337 AM EDT Sat May 22 2021 A large area of high pressure over Virginia will drift into the Tennessee Valley for Sunday.
1243 AM CDT Sat May 22 2021 For the 22/06Z TAF update, high pressure to our east will continue to gradually shift westward into our airspace, shoving more Gulf moisture back to the west through the period. /Tonight/ Looks like things are finally about to change as the power ridge made a move with subsidence this afternoon over much of NE LA. The upper ridging will spread farther Westward overnight and over the weekend. Our overnight crew may continue some part of this watch beyond current expiration, but for now we can be sure of what has been cleared based on lack of new rainfall today with promise of less thanks to the upper ridge.
Ridging aloft begins to take hold over the region through the period as it retrogrades westward over the southeast CONUS. With this, the entire southeast CONUS pretty much remains engulfed by high pressure at all levels leaving us with some hot and dry conditions. As far as temps go, lows tonight will be in the low to mid 60s inland, with mid 60s to around 70 degrees along the coast. Lows on Saturday night will be fairly similar to tonight potentially even a few degrees cooler given the calmer winds. On Sunday, temps are expected to be a bit warmer with mostly upper 80s to low 90s expected across the region, except right along the coast where low 80s are expected.
414 AM EDT Sat May 22 2021 The stout upper level ridge will remain in place through the rest of the weekend, with mostly clear skies and dry weather continuing. We start the period Sunday night fairly uneventful as the area remains under the influence of upper level ridging. The blocking pattern begins to break down moving further into the week, when things become less amplified and the ridge broadens out.
The low pressure system that the NHC was watching for possible development yesterday looks to have run out of time to get named a tropical depression or storm. The system had shown signs it tried to get more organized in its approach to the coast: satellite derived winds show a distinct low pressure system located off the middle Texas coastline, marine observations showing sustained wind speeds of 20 to 30mph, and radar imagery showing outer rainbands coming ashore in Matagorda and Brazoria counties. If this setup was a few weeks later in the year with warmer SSTs, I have a feeling we'd be looking at quite a different storm.
A wide range of overall cooler temperatures will then be found today with highs in the lower 50s north to the 60s south, and some 70s southeast. A warm front then looks to set up overnight tonight from south to central. As this low takes shape later Sunday through Sunday night, a cold front will also push across the state.
Mid level high pressure will be building into the mid south from the Ohio valley region, and will act to push the moisture supportive for precipitation to the west of the state by late in the day.
Looking dry through this weekend as the Upper level high will be parked over the mid state.
355 AM CDT Sat May 22 2021 Look for increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms today along a stalled cold front. Additional thunderstorm chances remain in the forecast for Sunday as an upper low approaches the region. High temperatures for Sunday range from the low 60s to the upper 70s.
Highs today will be coolest in east central KS where rain is more likely, in the low to mid 70s, while areas outside of this stand a better chance of reaching the low 80s. Temps tomorrow look similar, although east central KS should manage a few degrees warmer with rain being more isolated.
A low pressure system will bring strong southwest winds through Saturday with a fire weather threat continuing in some areas. But the unusually strong low pressure system that brought all the weather today will only inch toward our area tomorrow. A strong low pressure system remains entrenched across the western states.
A large upper level ridge will move slowly westward during this time. So, look for a dry with highs in the upper 80s after morning lows in the lower to mid 60s.
The warmest temperatures will be found out east with the center of high pressure stationed across the southeast US. For tonight, most areas will see dry conditions as overnight lows fall into the lower 60s.
1101 PM CDT Fri May 21 2021 The main messages today are the low chance for a few rotating storms across western Wisconsin. The low level helicity values are decreasing across eastern Minnesota, but there are still values of 0-500m SRH approaching 100 across western Wisconsin, so that will be the area to watch.
343 AM EDT Sat May 22 2021 A broad 500 hPa ridge remains entrenched over eastern CONUS. This barotropically stacked ridge emanates down to the surface, allowing for a broad easterly fetch of winds to continue over the region.
With high pressure dominating the region, another mostly clear night will be on tap as only some thin cirrus may try to move in from the north. Anomalously strong upper level ridge will slowly retrograde toward the Mississippi Valley during the period where it will stall by Sunday. The low level moisture appears to increase a bit by Sunday afternoon across the Pee Dee where a short wave will be dropping down the backside of the ridge. At the surface the pressure ridge will be centered to the west and a weak trough develops across the Carolinas. With the upper level heights 2 to 3 standard deviations above normal, temperatures are expected to be above normal both days with max temps in the low to mid 90s. Overnight min temps in the low 60s.
These showers are part of a low pressure system wobbling over Lake Tahoe. This low will slowly move northeast away from our area bringing the chances of showers farther east with it. Behind the low, the thermal trough will try to rebuild, but conditions will not have enough time to get as warm and dry as we have been seeing lately.
252 AM CDT Sat May 22 2021 Showers continue to expand in coverage, moving northward across eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas early this morning on the western edge of an expanding ridge to the east.
957 PM MDT Fri May 21 2021 A low pressure system over Nevada will maintain a strong southerly flow across much of Utah Saturday. This low will then move east across northern Utah bringing unsettled conditions Sunday. An upper low continues to spin across the Great Basin this evening while the associated surface front has pushed into far eastern Utah, with an occluded boundary extending back across northern Utah. Meanwhile a mid level dry slot ahead of the main upper low has overspread much of southern and central Utah.
Shallow fog has developed in some of the low- lying areas in the northeast forecast area, dropping visibilities to around 1 mile at times. Otherwise it's been a quiet and mild night with temps in the low to mid 60s. A vorticity max is forecast to flatten the upper ridge across the Midwest as it tracks through the area tonight.
Otherwise, high pressure centered over the Tennessee Valley will continue to provide warm and dry conditions, although it could be a couple of degrees cooler than yesterday due to increased mid-level cloud cover. Tonights lows will again be in the low 60s. Sunday morning will start out dry due to the persistent high pressure ridge over the area.
213 AM CDT Sat May 22 2021 Dry and unseasonably warm conditions will persist through the weekend and early in the new week as the core of a high pressure ridge dominates from the Mississippi and Ohio Valleys into the Deep South.
439 AM EDT Sat May 22 2021 Above average temperatures will continue through the weekend, though slightly cooler than those of the days prior. Temperatures will drop into the low to mid 60s. A cold front will already be bearing down on our area by Sunday. This cold front will be driven southeastward from Ontario and Quebec by a fairly potent mid-level vort max and associated 120 kt upper level jet, however the axis of the upper level forcing will be from southern Quebec into northern New England. Once the front moves through by late Sunday afternoon, it should be relatively quiet and noticeably cooler when compared to the recent summer-like nights.
(Today and tonight) Scattered showers will gradually increase tonight into the morning as the deep moisture plume shifts westward and an upper level disturbance rounds the ridge. With abundant cloud cover, diurnal range will be somewhat limited today as highs are limited to the mid 70s to low 80s (somewhat warmer in northwest Oklahoma where some clearing may occur).
957 PM PDT Fri May 21 2021 An area of low pressure will impact the region through the weekend. A large upper level low pressure system continues to influence our weather and is currently centered over the Great Basin. Unsettled weather continues to pinwheel around this low while cooler than normal temperatures are being reported in our neck of the woods. Another chilly night is on tap for us although guidance indicates that it will be a good 5 degrees warmer than what was observed yesterday.
High pressure will continue to retrograde, and will center over the lower Ohio and Tennessee Valley regions on Saturday. Sunday will be even hotter, with most locations making it into the lower 90s by the afternoon hours.
An upper low centered in Nevada will move northward into our area on Saturday. Total precip amounts of up to a quarter inch in the lower valleys and up to a half inch in the mountains are expected. This looks like the main surge as the upper low in Nevada moves northward toward our CWA. The low will elongate north-south over our CWA Saturday with rain and mountain snow shifting westward into Oregon. Late Saturday night the upper low center will be in southeast Idaho, and by Sunday afternoon in western Montana. Windier Sunday from the northwest as the upper low moves away.
1106 PM CDT Fri May 21 2021 GOES water vapor imagery continued to show a plume of deep moisture extending northward from the Gulf Coast through the Upper MS Valley on the western fringe of strong mid-level ridging across the Ohio Valley. Given the low-level shear, though, any stronger more persistent cells could at least exhibit transient rotation. As ridging builds across the area tonight into Saturday, GEFS integrated water vapor transport shows a relaxing of the moisture fetch into the area. The upper level ridging the builds over the Midwest for the weekend will get flattened as the western U. upper level low lifts to the north/northeast.
/issued 245 PM CDT Fri May 21 2021/ Today have a weak upper ridge over the area as a cut off low wobbles across NV. This low will move into ID Saturday with the srn part of it lifting northward across WY and into MT Sunday. This low looks to stay east of the area as it moves north and weakens eventually getting swept up in the westerlies.
328 AM CDT Sat May 22 2021 A broad and deep upper level low will remain over the northwestern U. This low will continue brisk southeasterly winds that will advect moisture and maintain instability over West Texas and southeastern New Mexico.
337 AM EDT Sat May 22 2021 High pressure and dry conditions will persist for the short term portion of the forecast.
Strong high pressure just north of the region continues to edge slowly southward and expect the last onshore/breezy easterly flow day on tap. High pressure ridge builds overhead later tonight and expect decent radiational cooling under Mostly clear skies dropping lows in the upper 50s inland and lower/middle 60s closer to the Atlc Coast.
Weak upslope flow and near-freezing temperatures with little to no dewpoint depressions are allowing fog to form across most of the area, especially along the foothills. The upper low over Nevada finally begins to move north and towards Montana this weekend. Warmer temperatures sparked by southeast flow and the sun peaking through the clouds every now and then will ensure that shower activity will be rain on Sunday, though still as snow in the mountains. However, this low and associated warm front look to occur in the early afternoon, inhibiting potential instability in the area, so severe storm activity looks to stay east of the area and in the Dakota's.
Ridging is then very quick to rebound this afternoon due to subsidence in the wake of the wave as well as downstream effects of the broad cutoff low situated over the intermountain west. The next chance for showers and some storms will come Sunday as a shallow but potent backdoor cold front surges southward out of Ontario and through the northern Great Lakes. With midlevel ridging still somewhat in control, the limiting factor for stronger convective response will be warm midlevel temps and a lack of stronger lapse rates aloft.
The main upper-level players will be a low over the western CONUS, a ridge over the eastern CONUS, and a tropical cyclone off the Texas Gulf Coast. This convection will propagate to the northwest due to the southeasterly flow aloft produced by the ridge to our east and the tropical cyclone. Beginning on Sunday, a closed low will be moving to the north over the Intermountain West. The upper level jet with this low will be fairly well displaced away from the region leaving little in the way of upper level support locally.
In contrast, short wave ridges briefly clear skies granting some peaks at the sun. If the sun is able to peak through and heat up the lower atmosphere, more convective waves can be expected.
- A few stronger storms possible Sunday into Sunday night Deep layer shear strengthens a little Sunday into Sunday night as a backdoor cold front pushes down from the north. That backdoor cold front may impact temperatures on Sunday so more than normal uncertainty exists as far as how warm it will get exists.
The center of a strong upper level high draped over the Ohio Valley will drift southwest through the weekend eventually settling across the lower Mississippi Valley by late Sunday. a weak wave cutting overtop of the ridge through the Great Lakes this morning will knock heights aloft back from current levels but the overall ridge axis will hold serve from central Indiana south into the northern Gulf through the weekend. primarily focused over far northern portions of the forecast area during the peak heating hours of the afternoon and early evening as slightly deeper moisture advects into the region on the northern flank of the retreating ridge. Only slight adjustments to the start of the period as the very warm ridge begins to slide east with the start of the workweek.