Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
324 AM CST SAT MAR 12 2016 OUR PERSISTENT UPPER LOW CAN BE SEEN SPIRALING COUNTER-CLOCKWISE OVER CENTRAL TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING. PRECIPITATION WILL COME TO AN END ACROSS MOST AREAS THIS EVENING AS THE UPPER LOW EXITS THE AREA.
SIMILAR CONDITIONS CAN EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY TOMORROW BEFORE THE UPPER LOW OVER TEXAS FINALLY STARTS TO MOVE THIS WAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S IN MOST SECTIONS WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES.
BUT THEN TWO MORE WEATHER SYSTEMS WILL SPREAD ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION IN FROM THE NORTHWEST OVER THE WEEKEND WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS EXPECTED OVER THE NORTH BAY. THE WRF MODEL HAS HAD A PRETTY GOOD HANDLE ON THESE WINDS AND THE WRF INDICATES WIND SPEEDS WILL EASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE LOW.
A surface warm front and pressure trof will approach the PAH forecast area tonight.
254 AM EST SAT MAR 12 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA TODAY. A MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT WITH DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA LATE TODAY ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW CLOUDS.
/ISSUED 616 PM CST FRI MAR 11 2016/ QUICK UPDATE TO RAISE POPS CONSIDERABLY IN THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS THIS EVENING WHILE TAPERING VALUES BACK FARTHER WEST. THE WESTERN PROGRESS OF THIS PRECIP SHOULD BE HINDERED QUITE SEVERELY BY DEEP MOISTURE VOIDS IN THE LOW AND MID LEVELS.
RIDGE AXIS WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST TODAY AS FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHERLY ALOFT. MOISTURE FROM THE LOW THAT HAS BEEN SITTING OVER TEXAS WILL GET CAUGHT UP THE FLOW AND MOVE INTO EASTERN SD THIS EVENING.
THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND PERHAPS SOME ISOLATED THUNDER WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE BY THE LATE AFTERNOON AS A WEAK WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH INTO THE AREA FROM MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA.
LATEST GOES WV IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUING TO SLOWLY SPIN OVER EASTERN TEXAS AS A SECONDARY LOW PUSHES INTO THE CALIFORNIA COAST. A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIFT THROUGH OUR AREA TOMORROW MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
TIMING IS TRICKY OVERNIGHT DUE TO THE WEAK VORT MAXES EJECTING OUT OF THE UPPER LOW OVER TEXAS. TEMPS SO FAR ARE GENERALLY ON TRACK AND SHOULD NOT DROP MORE THAN A FEW DEGREES THE REST OF THE NIGHT WITH LOWS REMAINING IN THE LOWER 60S. TIMING OF THE LOWERING CEILINGS WILL BE THE CHALLENGE THIS TAF PERIOD.
334 AM CST SAT MAR 12 2016 Areas of rain will continue to push northward this morning along a weak warm front, then should gradually clear out from south to north as saturation begins to erode from the midlevels downward during the mid- to late morning hours. Low-level moisture will continue to stream into the region east of the deep upper low spinning near the Houston area, allowing any sunshine that does break out this afternoon to be destructive as mounting low-level instability encourages cloud cover and widely scattered showers to redevelop. Highs will be impacted by cloud cover and should be a few degrees cooler than yesterday despite the passage of the boundary and weak warm air advection.
324 AM CST SAT MAR 12 2016 UPPER LOW CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN TEXAS WILL OPEN UP TODAY AND FINALLY SWING NORTH. WARM FRONT CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER NORTHERN ALABAMA WILL CONTINUE NORTH AND PLACE MIDDLE TN WELL WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR BY MIDDAY TODAY. A FEW SHOWERS ALONG THE WARM FRONT WILL BE AROUND THIS MORNING.
1143 PM CST FRI MAR 11 2016 AT H5 CLOSED UPPER LOW PUSHING NORTH INTO CENTRAL TEXAS WITH DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND ASSOCIATED HEAVY PRECIPITATION OVER LOUISIANA MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA. WEAK WAVE MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL CANADA OTHERWISE CLOSED LOW OFF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST WITH COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION INTO THE SIERRAS. AND RIDGING OVER NORTHERN CONUS AHEAD OF IT. WITH NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND THE SANDHILLS LIKELY NOT DECOUPLING MUCH OVERNIGHT WITH MILD LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S. LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL FILL/WEAKEN AS IT MOVES NORTH TOWARD OUR REGION SATURDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO MOVE CLOSED LOW OVER TEXAS NORTH INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY WITH ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION SHIELD.
/issued 324 PM CST FRI MAR 11 2016/ (Tonight and Saturday) As the upper low finally moves farther northeast, from its current position over deep South Texas, showers will slowly diminish overnight tonight.
IFR to LIFR cigs and MVFR to IFR vsbys will prevail at all sites through the taf period as low clouds and areas of shower activity rotate around an upper low pressure system thats currently located across Texas. /ISSUED 825 PM CST FRI MAR 11 2016/ Areas of light rain continue to move to the north-northwest across northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas this evening as an upper level low spins across south Texas.
352 AM CST SAT MAR 12 2016 Upper low that has brought several days of rain chances to the area continues to slowly moving northward and is currently located over south central TX.
1151 PM CST FRI MAR 11 2016 UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM SD TO ALTA WILL MOVE OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY ON SAT. WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED AN UPPER TROUGH OVER NORTHERN MAN. TROUGH WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL QUICKLY BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST AS THE TROUGH PUSHES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA IN WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND THE FAR SOUTHERN VALLEY. H850 MOISTURE ADVECTION THEN BEGINS TO INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT AS AS AN UPPER LOW OVER THE SRN PLAINS LIFTS NORTH.
INLAND AREAS SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S GIVEN THE DRY AIR AND 925MB TEMPS AROUND 11C. THE RIDGE WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE PLAINS. VERY DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS OVER SOUTHERN WI WILL INHIBIT PRECIP TODAY AND THIS EVENING DESPITE THE MID LEVEL FORCING MOVING OVERHEAD. A COUPLE OF THE HIGH-RES MODELS SHOW THE FOG REACHING THE NEARSHORE WATERS OVERNIGHT. THE HIGH CLOUDS WILL MAKE IT DIFFICULT TO DETECT ON SATELLITE SO WE WILL BE KEEPING A CLOSE EYE ON WEBCAMS.
1050 PM CST FRI MAR 11 2016 TEMPS ROSE INTO THE MID 70S JUST EAST OF THE BUFFALO RIDGE IN WEST CENTRAL MN THIS AFTN. A SLIGHT SHIFT IN THE WIND DIRECTION FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND MORNING LOWS COOLER THAN EXPECTED. AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE BUFFALO RIDGE AND ALONG THE MINNESOTA RIVER VALLEY WERE AREAS THAT HAD HIGHER MORNING LOWS AND THE ADDED AFFECT OF A DOWNSLOPE WIND COMPONENT. THE THEME FOR THE LONGER TERM WILL BE COOLER AND WETTER. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY COOLER FOR SUN. HELPING SHIFT THIS LOW PRES SYSTEM AND ANY LINGERING RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH IT WELL E OF THE REGION.
THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL LIFT DURING THE MORNING LEAVING VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE AFTERNOON. /ISSUED 322 PM CST FRI MAR 11 2016/ AN UPPER LEVEL LOW TO OUR SOUTH CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS OKLAHOMA. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA RIGHT BEHIND THE CURRENT SYSTEM TOWARDS THE END OF THE DAY SATURDAY.
1217 AM EST SAT MAR 12 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OVER EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND MOST OF THE WEEKEND WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
404 AM EST SAT MAR 12 2016 A LOOK AT SATELLITE DATA WE FIND A TROUGH LINGERING OVER THE TEXAS COAST. THIS TROUGH IS ERODING THE WESTERN EDGE OF AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS.
319 AM CST SAT MAR 12 2016 A MID TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER TX EARLY THIS MORNING WILL WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY WHILE EJECTING NEWD INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY TONIGHT. AHEAD OF A STRONG SYSTEM TRACKING FROM THE LOWER CO VALLEY INTO THE SRN PLAINS. EXPECT A CONTINUED NWD EXPANSION OF THE EVOLVING PRECIPITATION SHIELD ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WITH THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS CNTRL/ERN COUNTIES.
/ISSUED 234 PM EST FRI MAR 11 2016/ FORECAST PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH RELATIVELY DRY REGIME AS UPPER CLOSED LOW AND MAIN GULF MOISTURE TRANSPORT REMAIN WEST OF THE AREA. KEPT SLIGHT TO LOW END CHANCE POPS FOR FAR NORTH LATE TODAY INTO OVERNIGHT DUE TO PRESENCE OF WEAK BOUNDARY AND SOME POTENTIAL OROGRAPHIC FORCING IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. PRECIP CHANCES GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE SATURDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST FINALLY DAMPENS AND LIFTS NEWD TO BECOME ABSORBED IN THE MAIN LONGWAVE ENERGY.
BETWEEN BROAD AREA OF MID-HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF WESTERN CONUS/ROCKIES UPPER TROUGH.
Abundant moisture remains in place this morning, with dewpoints still in the lower 50s and precipitable water near 0. Forcing for ascent will shift to the east this morning and the lower and middle troposphere will quickly dry out, bringing precipitation chances to an end. Temperatures will be in the lower 70s across the southwest half of the CWA, likely remaining in the upper 60s across the Big Country.
HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE REGION WILL DEPART THIS MORNING. ALLOWING A WARM FRONT TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD. ACCOMPANYING THE WARMER AIR WILL BE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WHICH WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE LATE TNGT AND SAT FM THE S AS A WARM FRONT BEGINS TO SLOWLY ADVANCE N ACRS THE TN AND LWR OH VLY RGNS.
REGIONAL SATELLITE ANIMATION SHOWS THE DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY MOVING NORTHWARD OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TX THIS EVENING.
THE SHORT TERM LOOKS RELATIVELY TRANQUIL AS A RIDGE ALOFT BUILDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
/ISSUED 203 PM CST FRI MAR 11 2016/ AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW LIFTS OUT OF TEXAS THROUGH OKLAHOMA.
225 AM MST SAT MAR 12 2016 UPPER FLOW WILL BE SOUTHERLY TODAY AHEAD OF AN UPPER LOW THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE TONIGHT.
330 AM CST SAT MAR 12 2016 A closed upper low over Texas early this morning is about to start moving rapidly northeastward toward the Midwest today as a strong progressive trough pushes rapidly eastward through the southwest U. Temperatures expected to reach the low 60s with light east winds around 5 to 8 mph.
DEEP UPPER LOW OVER SOUTH TEXAS FINALLY GETS SHUNTED NORTHEAST TODAY AS A COMPACT BUT FAIRLY STRONG SHORT WAVE DIGS INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS.
Water vapor imagery continues to show a slow moving upper low centered across south-central Texas with a large area of convection across the central Gulf. Another upper trough is seen moving eastward through the southwest states which will act to kick the stationary upper low over Texas eastward starting today.
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE THIS MORNING SHOWS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER TEXAS HAS NOT MOVED MUCH IN THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT WAS OVER THE PACIFIC AT THIS TIME FRIDAY MORNING HAS MOVED ONSHORE AND WAS OVER THE COLORADO RIVER BASIN NEAR THE CALIFORNIA/ARIZONA/NEVADA BORDER AREA. 00Z MODELS WERE ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE LOW WOULD LIFT INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY TRACKING WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA.
159 AM EST SAT MAR 12 2016 HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL DIRECT A WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH SATURDAY.
TEMPS WILL BE MILD TONIGHT WITH MOST AREAS ON THE PLAINS REMAINING ABOVE FREEZING.
GORGEOUS EARLY SPRING DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TODAY. THIS LOW WILL START TO MOVE NORTH AND EAST AND AFFECT OUR AREA TOWARDS THE END OF THE SHORT TERM.
1213 AM EST SAT MAR 12 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OVER EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND MOST OF THE WEEKEND WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
APPEARS TO BE ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW.
STILL EXPECTING SOME SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON. OVERLAYING THIS WILL BE THE LARGER SCALE DEFORMATION AXIS AS THE LOW MOVES SOUTH OF US. PLACES THAT GET HIT A COUPLE OF TIMES AND GET A LITTLE OROGRAPHIC SNOW BEHIND THE TROUGH COULD GET 4 INCHES. DRIER AND COOLER AIR RUSHES IN BEHIND THE TROUGH TONIGHT.
UPPER LOW NEAR SAN ANTONIO WILL MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH EAST TEXAS ON SATURDAY. EXPECT SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH AROUND 08Z AS THE LOW LIFTS OUT TO THE NORTHEAST. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER LOW NEAR PLEASANTON AND DRIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST. MOST OF THE CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED WITH LOSS OF HEATING EXCEPT FOR ACTIVITY CLOSER TO THE UPPER LOW.
1121 PM CST FRI MAR 11 2016 An upper level area of low pressure will continue to lift north across the southern Texas Gulf Coast this evening, with moisture streaming north into the area ahead of it. As moisture/low level RH increase tonight, we should see cloud bases begin to build down toward the surface, especially over the higher terrain of the Ozark Plateau. The upper low low will continue to lift northeast into Arkansas by late afternoon, with scattered showers and thunderstorms throughout the day tomorrow. The upper low will only make slow progress northeast Saturday night, resulting in the continued chance for scattered rain and thunderstorms through the nighttime hours.
THE LEADING EDGE OF A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED ITS WAY INTO WESTERN COCONINO AND YAVAPAI COUNTIES. THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL LOW ARE FORECAST TO QUICKLY MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA CAUSING LIGHT AMOUNTS OF RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW PRIMARILY ALONG THE BOUNDARY ITSELF.
1227 AM EST SAT MAR 12 2016 HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL DIRECT A WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH SATURDAY.
331 AM CST SAT MAR 12 2016 MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS WAS STREAMING NORTHWARD INTO THE CWA FROM THE SPINNING UPPER LOW LOCATED IN SE TX. 3 AM TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE LOWER 30S AT FREEPORT IL TO THE MID 40S AT FORT MADISON IA. OPERATIONAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SLOW DOWN THE RAIN ADVANCING NORTHWARD AS THERE IS AN AWFUL LOT OF DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS TO OVERCOME. THE UPPER LOW IN SE TX CONTINUES TO FILL AND LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AS AN OPEN WAVE. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S FAR SOUTH (THICKER CLOUDS) TO THE LOWER 60S FAR NORTH. OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN EXPECTED AS SOMEWHAT BETTER FORCING ARRIVES IN COMBINATION WITH HIGHER PWAT'S OF OVER AN INCH WHICH SHOULD BE ABLE TO SATURATE THE LOW LEVELS OVER ALL THE CWA.
1025 PM CST FRI MAR 11 2016 A MUCH WELCOME REPRIEVE FROM THE RAIN THIS EVENING BUT WE ARE STILL NOT QUITE DONE WITH WET STUFF JUST YET AS THE PARENT UPPER LOW SLOWLY LIFTS NWD INTO CNTRL TX. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SPIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH TEXAS. EXPECT MORE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AS THE LOW AND FRONT SLOWLY LIFT NNE ACROSS TEXAS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
1257 AM EST SAT MAR 12 2016 WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BEFORE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.
It appears the heavy rain threat should continue to shift to the southeast today along with the cold frontal boundary. An upper trough moving across the area today will also enhance this lift. Areas of fog will continue to form this morning as the cooler air lowers the temperature to near the dewpoint temperature.
H850 MB TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE LOWER TEENS BY SATURDAY MORNING.
THE LOW 700 MILES W OF WA/OR WILL WEAKEN AND THE REMAINING TROF WILL REACH THE W COAST SUN EVE. THE PAST 4 RUNS OF THE EC AND THE 144 HR GEM SUGGEST THE TAIL OF THE TROF BREAKS OFF FORMING A CUT- OFF LOW OVER THE DESERT SW. ITS COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THRU THE FCST AREA TUE NIGHT. TUE NIGHT: COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. STILL COULD SEE A FEW LIGHT SHWRS AS ANOTHER TROF APPROACHES. WED: THE LAST TROF CLEARS AND NW FLOW DEVELOPS. STRATOCU WILL BE EXTENSIVE WITH THERMAL TROF/COOL POCKET OVERHEAD. TEMPS STILL A LITTLE COOLER THAN NORMAL. THE LAST OF THE STRATUS SHOULD EVENTUALLY MOVE EAST AS THE AREA AS THEY ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A MID-LEVEL TROUGH THAT CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST OF OUR AREA.
1246 AM MDT SAT OCT 24 2015 EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS TROUGHING DOMINATING PATTERN ACROSS THE CENTRAL US. AT THE SURFACE A COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED EAST OF OUR CW TO LIE ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS AND EASTERN NEBRASKA. ASSOCIATED WITH A SHALLOW UNSTABLE LAYER BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT.
339 AM EDT SAT OCT 24 2015 TODAY WILL FEATURE MILD TEMPERATURES AND CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL SWING THROUGH THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING EAST OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND HURRICANE PATRICIA MOVING NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL MEXICO ALONG WITH AN UPPER LEVEL JET ARE INCREASING UPWARD FORCING WHILE A COLD FRONT AND LOWER LEVEL JET ENHANCE THE FORCING. COLD FRONT ALONG A LAKE AMISTAD TO ROCKSPRINGS TO LLANO TO TEMPLE LINE IS SAGGING SOUTH. THE LOWER LEVEL JET HAS DEVELOPED A BAND OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS AND POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN ALONG HIGHWAY 281 WITH A FEW WEAKER BANDS FURTHER TO THE EAST. THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES TOWARD THE BIG BEND WHILE THE MID LEVEL REMNANTS OF PATRICIA MOVE TOWARD THE LOWER RIO GRANDE. THE HEAVIER RAINS WILL FOCUS MORE EAST OF I-35 AS THE COLD FRONT SHIFTS SOUTHEAST OF OUR AREA.
MAIN FORECAST ISSUE WILL BE RAINFALL WITH DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
THEN TURNING TO MORE COLD FRONTAL AND/OR TROWAL PROCESSES ALOFT TO KEEP THE PRECIPITATION GOING FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. MODELS ARE WARMER AND HAVE CHANGED ANY MENTION OF PCPN TO ALL RAIN AND KEPT THE POPS RIGHT ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE IS RIDGING DOWN ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE N/NE AT THE SURFACE AND MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS BUILDING OVER THE STATE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER RIDGING WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY.
UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO FLATTEN AND SHIFT EAST TODAY. HOWEVER SURFACE RIDGING REMAINS STRONG AND BEST MOISTURE REMAINS WELL WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. BEST MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS REMAIN WEST AND NORTH OF THE AREA BUT THIS WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD HELP TO ENHANCE RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE FAR NORTH INTO THE LOW-CHANCE RANGE ACROSS THE FAR NORTH WITH SLIGHT CHANCES AS FAR SOUTH AS THE ATLANTA METRO AREA.
AND THE LARGER SCALE MODELS ALSO HAVE HINTS OF PRECIP AHEAD OF A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT COMING DOWN OVERNIGHT.
THIS TROUGH WILL TRANSLATE EASTWARD OVER THE COMING DAY. WE HAVE SEEN A COLD FRONT PUSH THROUGH THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING. WITH COOLER AND DRIER FALL AIR ADVECTING IN ON BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS. WINDS WILL QUICKLY DROP OFF THIS EVENING AS SURFACE RIDGING SETTLES IN AND THIS COUPLED WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES /ASIDE FROM PERHAPS THE SOUTHEAST ZONES/ AND A MUCH DRIER AIR MASS WILL PROMOTE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING.
ONE LAST MOSTLY DRY DAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AS THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES EAST AND WEAKENS IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL AGAIN WARM INTO THE LOW AND MID 80S. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW/MID 60S INLAND TO AROUND 70 NEAR THE COAST.
337 AM EDT SAT OCT 24 2015 TODAY WILL FEATURE MILD TEMPERATURES AND CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL SWING THROUGH THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
THE LOW 700 MILES W OF WA/OR WILL WEAKEN AND THE REMAINING TROF WILL REACH THE W COAST SUN EVE. THE PAST 4 RUNS OF THE EC AND THE 144 HR GEM SUGGEST THE TAIL OF THE TROF BREAKS OFF FORMING A CUT- OFF LOW OVER THE DESERT SW. ITS COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THRU THE FCST AREA TUE NIGHT. TUE NIGHT: COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. STILL COULD SEE A FEW LIGHT SHWRS AS ANOTHER TROF APPROACHES. WED: THE LAST TROF CLEARS AND NW FLOW DEVELOPS. STRATOCU WILL BE EXTENSIVE WITH THERMAL TROF/COOL POCKET OVERHEAD. TEMPS STILL A LITTLE COOLER THAN NORMAL. WIND WILL EVENTUALLY HAVE A SOUTH COMPONENT LATE TONIGHT AS THE HIGH SLIPS EAST AND WE WILL BE ON THE BACK SIDE WITH LIGHT RETURN FLOW.
155 AM EDT SAT OCT 24 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
BUT WE STILL HAVE A STRONG MID LEVEL TROF COMING THROUGH ALONG WITH THE COLD FRONT AND A TRAILING MOISTURE AXIS. THEN LOOK FOR GRADUALLY DECREASING CLOUDS AND A MUCH COOLER NIGHT TONIGHT.
1052 PM PDT FRI OCT 23 2015 High pressure will stretch across the Inland Northwest through the weekend with mild temperatures and occasional high cloudiness. A weak warm front will sweep through the region late Saturday with a few mountain showers possible, although most places will remain dry.
HIGH CLOUDS PASSING THROUGH UPPER RIDGE OVER OUR AREA BUT STILL MOSTLY SUNNY TODAY. SUNDAY WILL BE A LITTLE WARMERTHAN TODAY DUE TO STRONGER SOUTHERLY WIND COMPONENT ALOFT AS TODAY/S RIDGE SHIFTS EAST AND PACIFIC TROUGH REACHES THE NW COAST. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION BRINGING A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO MOST OF THE AREA. THIS TROUGH WILL BRING SNOW LEVELS DOWN TO AROUND 7500 FT.
WE START OUT THE DAY BEHIND A COLD FRONT. THE COOLER AIR MASS WHICH HAS MOVED INTO THE AREA WILL LIMIT HIGH TEMPS TODAY TO THE LOWER AND MID 60S. AND COULD NOT RULE OUT A LOCATION OR TWO DROPPING TO NEAR FREEZING. WITH ONGOING FARMING ACTIVITIES DELAYED DUE TO WARMER AND WETTER WEATHER RECENTLY.
After that, it should once again be a mostly sunny day, and warmer than normal for late October.
A VERY WEAK WARM FRONT WILL SPREAD CLOUDS ACROSS WESTERN WASHINGTON THROUGH THIS EVENING.
IT WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER TODAY. THE HIGH SLIDES OFF INTO THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY TONIGHT. WILL LEAN TOWARD WARMER END OF TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE LOWER-MID 60S.
WITH READINGS A LITTLE BELOW FREEZING IN THE COLDEST SPOTS AND IN THE 30S ACROSS THE REST OF THE PLAINS. KEPT OUR HIGHS WHICH MATCH THE COOLER GFS MOS GUIDANCE. SLIGHTLY WARMER NAM LOOKS TOO AMBITIOUS GIVEN THE INVERSION AND SHORTENING OCTOBER DAYLIGHT. SO LOWS WILL BE WARMER THAN TONIGHT. COULD BE A FEW SPOTS THAT FLIRT WITH FREEZING BUT EXPECT THAT TO BE PRETTY ISOLATED.
A FLAT RIDGE FORMS OVER THE AREA TODAY IN THE WAKE YESTERDAY/S TROUGH. A WEAK PERTURBATION MOVING THROUGH THE SHALLOW RIDGE WILL BRING SCATTERED MID AND HIGH CLOUDS.
404 AM CDT SAT OCT 24 2015 Cold front is currently making its way through the forecast area, already seeing cooler temps and lower dewpoints west of the I-35 through I-49 corridors.
SOME OF THIS TROPICAL MOISTURE IS ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE PATRICIA NOW MOVING NE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CENTRAL MEXICO. A MODIFIED PACIFIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST SHOULD BRING DRY AND SEASONABLY MILD CONDITIONS TO END THE NEXT WORK WEEK.
DEEP LAYER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN U. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL WEAKEN AND CAUSE EASTERLY FLOW TO EASE SLIGHTLY. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE FAR WESTERN GULF GETTING KICKED NORTH INTO THE MID SECTION OF THE COUNTRY EARLY-MID WEEK. THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL ONLY SLOWLY MOVE EAST ACROSS THE GULF DUE TO RESTRENGTHENED HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE NEAR THE EASTERN SEABOARD. TUE NIGHT INTO WED THE LOW LEVEL FLOW IS PROGGED TO TURN SOUTHEAST/SOUTH AHEAD OF THE SLOW MOVING FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD FRI- SAT. HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL WEAKEN. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL STRENGTHEN BUT LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT LOCALLY IS EXPECTED.
607 AM EDT SAT OCT 24 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING THEN MOVE EAST THIS AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHWEST OF MAINE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. DRAWING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY.
THE WEEKEND WILL BE DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES THE DOMINANT FEATURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
400 AM EDT SAT OCT 24 2015 A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHES FROM EASTERN CANADA SOUTHWARD TO THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. AN UPPER LOW IS MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH AN ASSOCIATED TROUGH REACHING ACROSS OLD MEXICO TO HURRICANE PATRICIA NOW ON THE WEST COAST OF MEXICO.
THE COLD FRONT IS LOCATED ALONG A LINE FROM NEAR ABILENE TO WICHITA FALLS TO ARDMORE AND WILL CONTINUE SOUTH THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. COMBINED WITH DEEP MOISTURE AND STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT FROM APPROACHING TROUGH WILL HELP MAINTAIN MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN FROM THE DFW METROPLEX SOUTH INTO CENTRAL TEXAS TODAY. AND THE PRECIPITATION AREA SHOULD CONTRACT TOWARD THE CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST. OUR FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES WILL LIKELY HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR HEAVY RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LOW MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG THE TEXAS COAST. WE SHOULD GET A FEW DAYS OF DRYING OUT AS IT NOW LOOKS LIKE A MID WEEK TROUGH WILL COME THROUGH DRY.
416 AM EDT SAT OCT 24 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND MOVES OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA SUNDAY.
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT HAS ALREADY POOLED MOISTURE OUT AHEAD OF IT IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE LOW-LEVELS WILL STILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF SATURATING. SATURATION CONTINUES SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BEGINS TO MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARDS LOUISIANA.