Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
and Monday The upper low comprising the southeast leg of the omega blocking pattern across Canada will gradually drop south across eastern Ontario during the period. Colder air aloft with the approach of the upper low combined with a little more sharply cyclonic flow will probably lead to somewhat greater coverage and more vigorous showers compared to today.
The main culprit is an expansive gyre of low pressure from Hudson Bay to the Canadian Maritimes. The persistent Greenland Ridge is helping as well. Just upstream a pseudo Rex pattern is setting up as energy digging into the amplified ridge has separated a cell of high pressure over the Canadian Prairies. The low in this pattern is staged over the N.
Temperatures will feel warmer than yesterday as these rise to the mid 80s across the coast but near 90 across the interior.
KNQA VAD wind profiler detected southwest winds of 80 knots at 5 kft AGL, indicative of the strong kinematic response the open trof lifting through the mid-MS River valley. The low level jet will weaken as it translates east, but still will likely sustain at least shallow convection along and north of the outflow boundary. 08Z HRRR guidance shows the synoptic cold front entering northeast AR at noon to 1 PM, moving a fairly good clip.
456 AM CDT Sun May 9 2021 ell the tale of two mornings yesterday morning temps were in the lower 60s with clear skies with northeast to east winds. Winds this morning are from the south with temperatures into the low to mid 70s. As an area of low pressure that moved out of the rockies has moved into southwest Mo with a trailing front back into central Texas. This low and frontal system has been the focus of severe weather in the west central plains over the last day or two.
Aided by diurnal speed convergence, this was able to overcome relatively drier air in the low-levels (as sampled in the 12z KEY sounding) to trigger the shower activity. With temperatures already rising into the lower to mid 80s across the island chain, advertised highs in the mid to upper 80s still seems on track; thus, no additional changes are needed for this update forecast cycle. As a sprawling dome of high pressure pivots eastward, breezes should slacken and become gentle to moderate through at least mid-week.
325 AM MDT Sun May 9 2021 Water vapor imagery early this morning shows the upper level low over southwest Montana/northeast Wyoming. The upper low over west-central Montana is progged to push southwest into eastern Idaho by Monday morning while a mid-level trough axis develops from eastern Idaho into northwest Colorado.
302 AM MDT Sun May 9 2021 Satellite imagery shows slowly-evolving upper low over east central MT. There is an area of light precip in the NW flow on the western flank of this low, in a region of fairly steep mid level lapse rates, though with downslope winds keeping greatest precip coverage north and east of Billings. Web cams also show rain at Ingomar and Colstrip, and given mesonet stations there is probably some wet snow falling over the higher hills (e. Lame Deer Divide), though ground temps are above freezing so roads should remain wet thru the remainder of the night. The upper low will fill and gradually split today.
RMB PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: Lingering rain and snow showers continue across NE Montana and will end from northeast to southwest today as low pressure begins to move out of the area. Ensembles point to upper ridging over the western U.
Today through Monday night: The Inland Northwest will continue to be influenced an almost nebulous acting area of an upper level low pressure system. The low itself will retrograde a bit into the Idaho Panhandle from western Montana. Much of the higher terrain across eastern Washington and the Northern Panhandle will see cumulus development. Towering cumulus will be possible over the higher terrain of northeast Washington and the Northern Panhandle where isolated showers are expected.
/issued 456 AM CDT Sun May 9 2021/ ell the tale of two mornings yesterday morning temps were in the lower 60s with clear skies with northeast to east winds. Winds this morning are from the south with temperatures into the low to mid 70s. As an area of low pressure that moved out of the rockies has moved into southwest Mo with a trailing front back into central Texas. This low and frontal system has been the focus of severe weather in the west central plains over the last day or two.
Negatively tilted mid level trough remains over the Northern High Plains region early this morning, with a band of enhanced radar returns over portions of southwestern ND. The upcoming work week will start off dry with gradually warming temperatures as deep layer high pressure lingers over the area.
With these strong southerly winds, expect for things to be much warmer today with highs in the 70s across the area, which is closer to normal than we have seen lately. Surface frontal boundary will pass through the area by Monday AM, ushering in cooler temperatures.
A trend toward warmer and drier conditions begins on Monday with seasonable temperatures expected by mid to late this week. Stacked surface to upper level low remains centered across central and eastern MT early this morning with rain and snow wrapping around the low across much of north-central MT. Meanwhile the mid to upper level low elongates and weakens today and tonight with a piece of the trough sagging southwest across the region.
(Today and tonight) Early this morning, a cold front was moving into the northern Big Country.
By Sunday night and Monday morning a long wave trough builds and strengthens in eastern Oregon before it begins to move south. This will result in a strong thermal trough building along the Oregon coastline as east to northeast winds funnel down the Cascades.
915 AM EDT Sun May 9 2021 High pressure will move offshore today. A cold front and upper level disturbance will move into the region from the west Monday, then exit offshore Monday night.
740 AM EDT Sun May 9 2021 Nearly flat ridging resides aloft the Gulf of Mexico region today as high pressure just off the lower eastern seabord eases eastward. High pressure off the southeast US coast this morning maintains a tight enough gradient for winds up to 15 knots at times today. The high pressure slides east during early to mid week with a relaxing gradient across the waters.
829 AM MDT Sun May 9 2021 Update out to add higher PoPs for foothills as instability already has allowed some decent echoes to develop from Big Timber to Bridger. BT Satellite imagery shows slowly-evolving upper low over east central MT. There is an area of light precip in the NW flow on the western flank of this low, in a region of fairly steep mid level lapse rates, though with downslope winds keeping greatest precip coverage north and east of Billings. Web cams also show rain at Ingomar and Colstrip, and given mesonet stations there is probably some wet snow falling over the higher hills (e. Lame Deer Divide), though ground temps are above freezing so roads should remain wet. The upper low will fill and gradually split today.
On Sunday, a cold front will move south of the I-20 corridor by 15Z and to near the I-10 corridor by 00Z. Expect cooler temperatures across the Big Country with highs 80 to 85 and hot across the remainder of the area with highs 90 to 95.
Gradually through 18z, some breaks and clearing will take place from northern and eventually south into central/south by 00z as weak high pressure briefing replaces the exiting system. A lingering trough of low pressure north of the exiting system today will swing around the departing low later tonight into Monday and extend back west into Iowa and areas east. Though generally lacking moisture, the low along with a backdoor cold front will have enough lift to produce a few showers from either late morning to afternoon or perhaps mainly afternoon across the east/central/southeast as weak instability develops during that time.
704 AM CDT Sun May 9 2021 (Today and tonight) Early this morning, a cold front was moving into the northern Big Country.
409 AM CDT Sun May 9 2021 Showers continue in the upper low across central SD early this morning. As the clouds clear from north to south, temps will fall quickly tonight into the lower 30s, perhaps even the upper 20s again with H85 temps in the negative single digits. Highs today will be suppressed again given the trough, precip, and cloud cover. Combined with some northerly flow around the exiting upper low, min RH and wind gusts will come close to critical fire danger criteria across far northeast SD and west central MN on Monday. Upper pattern to start off the extended features a trough over the eastern CONUS, and a weak upper high north of a weak upper low just upstream.
937 AM CDT Sun May 9 2021 High pressure will continue to build south over the forecast area today. Negatively tilted mid level trough remains over the Northern High Plains region early this morning, with a band of enhanced radar returns over portions of southwestern ND. The upcoming work week will start off dry with gradually warming temperatures as deep layer high pressure lingers over the area.
945 AM CDT Sun May 9 2021 A cold front to our west will continue to move eastward today. Main threat of severe storms will be this afternoon as the cold front approaches the forecast area. A cold front trailing SW of the low will begin moving across far NW AL around midnight, and progress to the SE during the course of the overnight. Noticeable cooler air will filter across the area, with lows ranging from around 50 over NW AL to near 60 NE AL by daybreak Monday. The effects of the high will be felt once again, with highs to start a new work week around 70.
451 AM CDT Sun May 9 2021 Well the tale of two mornings yesterday morning temps were in the lower 60s with clear skies with northeast to east winds. Winds this morning are from the south with temperatures into the low to mid 70s. As an area of low pressure that moved out of the rockies has moved into southwest Mo with a trailing front back into central Texas. This low and frontal system has been the focus of severe weather in the west central plains over the last day or two.
631 AM CDT Sun May 9 2021 355 AM CDT A pronounced west-to-east oriented midlevel fgen band pivoting over the area north of an approaching area of low pressure has been supporting a broad swath of rain showers. The exception would be the immediate Chicago metro area, especially downwind of the relatively warmer lake. Unfortunately for those same locations, daytime highs will be correspondingly cooler near the lake on Monday, only around 50, while the rest of the area warms into the mid-upper 50s.
A mid level trough continues to move eastward across Kansas this morning at 08Z per Satellite and profilers. Surface outflow was moving across southeast Kansas while the cold front was extended from northeast Kansas to south central Kansas at 08Z. Latest trends show the low level jet veering to the southwest with the best moisture transport shifting into Missouri.
554 AM CDT Sun May 9 2021 (Today and tonight) Strong cold front by May standards will continue to push south/southeast across the area this morning.
Flying conditions will worsen today behind a cold front currently slicing through the Tulsa metro area. A cold front is marching quickly south and east across OK and stretches from near I35 in north central OK to Altus in SW OK. Otherwise the cold front will continue to sweep southeast thru the morning across eastern OK and northwest AR.
Pieces of energy will rotate over the Northland this afternoon from a closed upper low over northwest Ontario.
Isolated strong storms this afternoon across the far east, with A cold front has pushed southward across the northern half of the forecast area today. (Monday night through next Sunday) Expect a wet and cool period for early this week due to lift over a cold front to our south and mid to upper level ascent over our area.
104 PM CDT Sun May 9 2021 (Today and tonight) Early this morning, a cold front was moving into the northern Big Country.
This cool air is present thanks to northerly flow brought in by a cut-off low over the Great Lakes/Ontario area off to our northeast. We'll start this period with high pressure centered right on top of us.
High pressure pushes south across Manitoba tonight. The upcoming week will feature toward warmer temps and a continuation of precipitation deficits. Upper ridge will be moving over the northern plains Tue, when we will begin our warming trend into the 60s throughout the area. Upstream upper trough will undercut the ridge as the energy remains south over the central plains, where any active weather will remain. By the end of the week though, an area of low pressure and increased moisture will create pcpn chances for Fri and Sat.
202 PM CDT Sun May 9 2021 Our trough from yesterday has moved off to the NE and now all eyes are on the cold front that's making it's way through the region. Right now the front is stalled just north of the Pecos River, with cooler temperatures and NE winds behind. If this front is able to stay SW of the Permian Basin this afternoon, highs will be cooler today with 80s across the Basin and 90s along the Pecos.
305 PM CDT Sun May 9 2021 Cooler than normal but overall pleasant conditions in place for mom this afternoon. most concentrated across west-central into central WI where a mid-level trough and surface convergent boundary was in place. Bigger picture water vapor imagery/RAP analysis showing the area is on the southern periphery of deep mid-level low over Ontario Canada, keeping cooler than normal airmass in place. For tonight, models indicating another mid-level trough /PV- advection passing through the area for some lingering cloud cover mainly south of I-94.
Showers continue in the upper low across central SD early this morning. As the clouds clear from north to south, temps will fall quickly tonight into the lower 30s, perhaps even the upper 20s again with H85 temps in the negative single digits. Highs today will be suppressed again given the trough, precip, and cloud cover. Combined with some northerly flow around the exiting upper low, min RH and wind gusts will come close to critical fire danger criteria across far northeast SD and west central MN on Monday. Upper pattern to start off the extended features a trough over the eastern CONUS, and a weak upper high north of a weak upper low just upstream.
1020 AM MDT Sun May 9 2021 Weakening upper low remains over the area. Messy upper trof lingers across the Rockies into the plains for the first half the week.
339 PM CDT Sun May 9 2021 A late season cold front is expected to reach our northern zones later today and become stationary over gulf coast states.
Colder air continues to stream in from the north as an area of high pressure in the Dakotas will slowly move into Nebraska this evening. Surface temperatures should stay warm enough there will be no threat of any wintry mix as lows will fall into the lower 40s. Overall diurnal heating will be determined by how long the clouds and rain stick around as some areas in our northwest zones could struggle to get to 50 while the rest of the area should see highs in the low to mid 50s which is certainly unseasonably cool for May 10th.
Southerly winds are already elevated as the MSLP gradient tightens between surface ridging nosing westward across the FL Peninsula and ahead of a cold front extending from the ArkLaTex region to the Ohio Valley vicinity. The high-resolution Convection Allowing Models (CAMs) are not in agreement at all with the development and subsequent movement of the anticipated convection due to their differences in handling the noisy pattern aloft, so will rely mainly on the short-term and spectral models (NAM, GFS, and ECMWF). Low level wind fields should gradually weaken over MS/AL by late this evening as the stronger dynamics associated with the low pressure system quickly lift northeast toward the Appalachians and Eastern Seaboard.
Quiet weather for the next couple of days with cooler than normal temperatures continuing. Cool northerly surface flow on Monday with highs into the lower 60s.
1153 AM MDT Sun May 9 2021 At the start of the short term period, the CWA has a southwesterly flow aloft as the CWA is underneath the front part of an upper air trough with an upper air low over south-central MT early Sunday morning. On Monday, the upper air low in MT looks to move slightly towards ID as a jet streak moves in from the Pacific Northwest beginning to enhance the upper air trough by the afternoon hours. Overview: A broad upper level trough will amplify over the Intermountain West and central Rockies on Mon/Tue. The aforementioned trough (or broad upper low) will progress eastward across the Central Plains on Wed. characterized by an amplifying ridge over the western CONUS mid-late week.
257 PM CDT Sun May 9 2021 A strong cold front has pushed southeast of our forecast area this afternoon with only a few showers left across parts of southeast MO.
An upper disturbance moving through northwest flow and an upper low in Montana will support isolated showers over the higher elevations this afternoon. Northwest flow, with an upper level low over Montana supports some mountain showers, mainly in the afternoon, thru Monday.
1229 PM CDT Sun May 9 2021 At 245 AM, skies were mostly cloudy, with a large rain shield just south of the area associated with strong mid-level frontogenesis north of low pressure pushing into Missouri. As the upper level low near Hudsons Bay moves slowly off to the southeast, the upper level ridging over western Canada should slide in behind it and be over the Upper Midwest through the middle of the week. This ridging still looks to be in a decaying stage as it comes in and should dissipate over the last part of the work week allowing a weak northwest flow aloft to set up.
905 AM PDT Sun May 9 2021 A trough of low pressure across the northern Rockies will maintain onshore flow with periods of gusty westerly winds over the mountains and deserts through Monday.
While there are a few breaks in this lower cloud deck starting to appear on satellite, thicker mid level clouds are rapidly encroaching from the west southwest. Given the higher dewpoints than expected along with continued cloud cover this evening and overnight.
1133 AM MDT Sun May 9 2021 Weakening upper low remains over the area. Messy upper trof lingers across the Rockies into the plains for the first half the week.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 62 70 52 71 51 / 70 50 20 20 20 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 57 67 50 69 48 / 80 50 10 10 10 Oak Ridge, TN 56 65 48 70 47 / 80 50 10 10 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 55 67 44 67 41 / 70 50 10 10 10 TN.
100 PM CDT Sun May 9 2021 (Today and tonight) Strong cold front by May standards will continue to push south/southeast across the area this morning.
except the far west where increasing clouds may keep temps a degree or two warmer overnight. After a cold/frosty morning, partial sunshine will help boost Monday afternoon highs into the lower to middle 60s.
A sprawling dome of high pressure over the western Atlantic will largely dictate the sensible weather for much of the week.
Cold front was very near the Pecos River and it may wave back n of INK/CNM, but not expected to return to MAF/HOB.
High pressure will continue to build south over the forecast area today. Negatively tilted mid level trough remains over the Northern High Plains region early this morning, with a band of enhanced radar returns over portions of southwestern ND. The upcoming work week will start off dry with gradually warming temperatures as deep layer high pressure lingers over the area.
Winds should be light with high pressure building over the area. The biggest concern will be the southwest, where forecast low are in the low to mid 20s. Mesoscale models are not bullish with fog, and forecast soundings are not overly moist in the lowest levels.
Cool and unstable air is circulating around low pressure centered in central Montana. Coverage will be less as low pressure pushes further east.
A cold front has cleared the area early this afternoon. Given the low level northerly flow, it tends to be difficult to clear out low stratus in these situations, therefore cloud cover will likely stick around for most of the night.
Through the overnight hours, cloud cover is expected to diminish as Canadian high pressure drops further south. For the day on Monday, continued high pressure means mostly clear skies, until an afternoon cumulus field develops.
We are expected readings to dip to near freezing and below in spots across Central Lower Michigan.
400 PM EDT Sun May 9 2021 Low pressure and a cold front will move east of the area by early this evening. High pressure will then build into the region through mid week. Low pressure and a cold front are tracking across the area and will move off to the east by early evening. In the wake of the low, north winds will gust into the evening and then diminish quite a bit. As high pressure starts to build, expect clouds to decrease. High pressure centered over the northern Plains will continue to ridge southeast into the region through the period with a reenforcement of cool, dry air.
248 PM CDT Sun May 9 2021 A cold front is still off to the nw and slowing down from prev forecast approach. The cold front should be invof SE AR and the northern part of the forecast area towards sunset as the lifting mechanism shifts to the leading edge of the advancing airmass. the next round of storms will potentially see a higher risk/potential headlines depending on location of the highest rainfall today/where the front slows.
/issued 740 AM EDT Sun May 9 2021/ Nearly flat ridging resides aloft the Gulf of Mexico region today as high pressure just off the lower eastern seabord eases eastward. High pressure off the southeast US coast this morning maintains a tight enough gradient for winds up to 15 knots at times today. The high pressure slides east during early to mid week with a relaxing gradient across the waters.
115 PM EDT Sun May 9 2021 High pressure will move offshore today. A cold front and upper level disturbance will move into the region from the west Monday, then exit offshore Monday night.
414 PM EDT Sun May 9 2021 Broad troughing extending from the Great Lakes to the Canadian maritimes will continue through this period. The associated upper level low is currently near James Bay and through this period, the low is progged to dip southward to just east of Lake Superior by tomorrow afternoon as ridging to the west over central Canada expands over the top of the low. With our forecast area remaining under the influence of this low, expecting more of the same for the remainder of the afternoon and tomorrow. The traditional colder spots could dip into the low 20s.
A ridge of high pressure will move into the area tomorrow, resulting in mostly dry weather, though a few showers will still be possible across the Southwest. After this system dissipates and slides southeastward, our upper level flow will turn more zonal as an upper level ridge builds to the west. However, even with this ridge to our west, a few disturbances may make their way over the ridge, which means that we will have a few chances for isolated to scattered rain showers through the week. Uncertainty increases towards the weekend, as an upper level trough looks to move onto the West Coast.
The area of low pressure responsible for all of today's rain has shifted into Ohio, taking the rain and thunderstorms with it. after some residual moisture accompanying another area of low pressure to the southwest of Indiana, the dry air will really overtake central Indiana.
Afternoon clouds Monday will clear in the evening and allow temperatures to drop overnight into the low to mid 30s.
Showers and a few storms will linger north of the low this morning into this afternoon, but no severe weather will occur with this activity. Cooler conditions will move into the area behind the front with highs only warming into the upper 50s across central Missouri and east central Kansas to the upper 60s across southeastern Kansas.