Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Dry high pressure will maintain clear skies across the forecast area. /issued 401 PM CST Thu Feb 27 2020/ High pressure has settled into the region last night and with clear skies and light winds this morning. temperatures started out in the upper 20s around AEX with freezing temperatures as far south as LCH and BPT. Dew points have been on the increase as high pressure has moved a bit further to the east today. Temperatures will be warmer as the dew points have come up a bit.
An upper level low will dig across the Southwest U.
With the widespread snowmelt today, plenty of low level moisture and light winds overnight will likely lead to areas of fog, particularly in the low lying areas. Some of the fog could be dense at times and may lead to slick spots as temperatures fall below freezing. Another night of fog is possible Friday night as a ridge overhead begins to move off to the east.
High pressure aloft will settle over the Great Basin through Friday night.
401 PM CST Thu Feb 27 2020 High pressure has settled into the region last night and with clear skies and light winds this morning. temperatures started out in the upper 20s around AEX with freezing temperatures as far south as LCH and BPT. Dew points have been on the increase as high pressure has moved a bit further to the east today. Temperatures will be warmer as the dew points have come up a bit.
423 PM EST Thu Feb 27 2020 Water vapor imagery shows a broad longwave trough situated over the eastern two-thirds of the US with an embedded upper level low pushing into the Canadian Maritime provinces. Upstream a ridge is moving across the Pacific Northwest and British Rocky Mountains. At the surface, a cold front sits well to our south and east, extending from central Cuba across eastern Bahamas. High pressure cell remains anchored in the northwest Gulf coast. A weak Canadian high is moving southeast across the upper High Plains.
Warm and dry conditions continue on Friday as ridging builds over the Northern Rockies.
419 PM MST Thu Feb 27 2020 Upper ridging across the western CONUS continues to slide eastward, toward the northern High Plains.
Clearing afternoon skies and a building ridge over the central US will help to continue the warming trend, with high temperatures in the 50s.
The warmup in temperatures reaches a peak this weekend as upper ridging builds into the central CONUS and an H85 thermal axis stretches through the Central Plains/Mid-Missouri Valley.
/issued 245 PM CST Thu Feb 27 2020/ The roller coaster of recent temperature swings will dampen somewhat this week, absent any unforeseen strong cold fronts headed our way. The ridge over the west coast responsible for current NW flow aloft will move east and de-amplify into the weekend as a mid-latitude Pacific trough pushes onshore by Sat morning.
On Friday, the upper trough axis will swing through the Ohio Valley with warmer air returning to western Nebraska. The upper ridge will flatten out across the region Friday night. lows from the low to mid 20s west and south to upper 20s northeast.
630 PM EST Thu Feb 27 2020 High pressure building east from the Gulf and dry air in place will allow the atmosphere to rapidly radiate heat. NAM, HR and ECMWF have dewpoints in the lower 30s in the current frost advisory area. GFS is much drier with dewpoints in the low 30s well south almost to inland Manatee County. Therefore I am not going to touch the freeze warning or frost adviosories or the low temperatures,they look on track. High pressure over the western Gulf is building across the area. Temperatures will be in the lower to mid 30s north, and in the upper 30s to mid 40s central and south.
325 PM CST Thu Feb 27 2020 Cold front has exited the area with weak cold advection (CAA) and mixing yielding gusty NW winds at times. The CAA and snow cover has limited temperatures to the upper 20s along the Hwy 20 corridor, while deeper mixing and bare ground and sunshine has pushed temperatures into the lower 40s south.
750 PM MST Thu Feb 27 2020 High pressure aloft will settle over the Great Basin through Friday night.
A southerly pressure gradient is bringing warmer temperatures to western Montana and north central Idaho today. In fact, high temperatures may push upwards of 10 degrees warmer than normal. The associated cold front is expected to arrive around sunrise in northwest Montana, then shift southward through west central Montana and north central Idaho by mid morning.
The flow aloft will be relaxing later Friday with building high pressure aloft to our west. Friday will be a dry day statewide along with warmer temperatures. Upper ridging is in place for the forecast area Friday night.
Otherwise, the main story will be increasing temperatures thanks to WAA as the ridge slowly slides eastward.
Temperatures within the region are in the mid 50s in most locations across the plains, and 40s to near 50 in the high valleys. Dry conditions are expected to persist under mostly clear skies tonight and tomorrow as an upper-level ridge continues to propagate towards Colorado. Lows tonight are expected to dip down to the teens and 20s across the plains and single digits and teens in the high valleys. The warming trend continues into tomorrow with highs reaching the upper 50s to lower 60s over the plains, and 40s to 50s in the high valleys.
High pressure moving across the region will maintain mainly clear and dry conditions through Friday while afternoon temperatures on Friday reach well above seasonal averages.
209 PM MST Thu Feb 27 2020 High pressure moving across the region will maintain mainly clear and dry conditions through Friday while afternoon temperatures on Friday reach well above seasonal averages.
524 PM CST Thu Feb 27 2020 Mostly clear skies across the Northland region this afternoon thanks to a strong high pressure system. Low temperatures around 0 are likely across Cass and Crow Wing counties as a weak trough brings increased cloud cover and light snow across north-central Minnesota. A strong upper level ridge begins moving into the region on Friday, with mostly sunny skies and generally light winds.
Cold front has exited the area with weak cold advection (CAA) and mixing yielding gusty NW winds at times. The CAA and snow cover has limited temperatures to the upper 20s along the Hwy 20 corridor, while deeper mixing and bare ground and sunshine has pushed temperatures into the lower 40s south.
602 PM CST Thu Feb 27 2020 At the surface, high pressure was building in from the northwest early this afternoon. A chilly northwest flow pattern across the area will continue through Friday with a deep longwave trough anchored over the eastern US. Northwest flow aloft will be replaced by broad ridging and persistent low to mid-level warm advection heading into the weekend.
Another weaker trough is right on the heels, which will push by Friday night.
High pressure settling over the region will keep very quiet weather in place. We should be a bit warmer though than last night with a more east or southeasterly flow developing (albeit light). High temperatures tomorrow warm back into the 70s as the ridge meanders around the area leading to variable wind directions.
Radar is already beginning to show some weak returns, however the lower atmosphere is dry so will go with a chance of light rain/snow mainly in areas along and south of I-70. Britt ECMWF and GFS ensemble means are still in good agreement that upper ridge will build over the area over the weekend.
710 PM EST Thu Feb 27 2020 Ridging along the Gulf Coast will maintain a dry westerly flow into the forecast area through Friday.
High temperatures today will be 5 to locally 10 degrees warmer than yesterday with high temperatures mostly in the 80s for coastal and valley areas except near the beaches.
/issued 144 PM CST Thu Feb 27 2020/ Most notable feature on today's synoptic scale map is an upper low positioned near Lake Superior. Southwest of this feature, broad northwesterly flow is in place ahead on a high amplitude ridge along the Pacific Coast.
Any accumulation potential still appears to be largely relegated to the higher elevations and relatively light, so no changes to the ongoing Special Weather Statements are needed. The thinking is temperatures will warm just enough that any snow in the afternoon over north GA will be limited to the highest elevations. Overall amounts look to be around 1/2 inch or less but maybe up to an inch at the highest elevations. The best snow chances will favor the NE Mountains where 1/2 to 1 inch could be possible at the highest elevations and generally less elsewhere over the NE counties.
/issued 630 PM EST Thu Feb 27 2020/ High pressure building east from the Gulf and dry air in place will allow the atmosphere to rapidly radiate heat. NAM, HR and ECMWF have dewpoints in the lower 30s in the current frost advisory area. GFS is much drier with dewpoints in the low 30s well south almost to inland Manatee County. Therefore I am not going to touch the freeze warning or frost advisories or the low temperatures,they look on track. High pressure over the western Gulf is building across the area. Temperatures will be in the lower to mid 30s north, and in the upper 30s to mid 40s central and south.
Surface observations showed the freezing line was well to the north, over northern MO. 00Z NAM Bufr soundings depict near saturated profiles in the dendritic growth zone (-12 to -18C) toward sunrise, overlying a relatively dry and warmer layer from the surface up through roughly 5000 feet. As with the past several light wintry mix events with above freezing temps.
Sprawling high pressure across the Gulf of Mexico will produce a cold, dry NW flow over the Florida peninsula, resulting in below normal temperatures. One mitigating factor will be a light NW wind that should persist overnight since the high center is so far to the west. High pressure will be centered over the western Gulf of Mexico with a ridge axis extending east across the FL peninsula. The ridge axis will slip southward as large mid level trough over the eastern CONUS sharpens/deepens a bit.
One short wave trough leaving this evening taking the scattered rain/snow showers with it while another one moves in behind after midnight. Also, added in some fog to the east tonight with clearing behind the first short wave trough. Upper ridging will then slowly build east over the northern Plains on Friday with warmer, drier air advecting in from the west.
Friday will be the warmest day as the upper ridge axis moves through.
1203 AM CST Fri Feb 28 2020 Updated for 06Z aviation discussion 06Z TAF discussion: High pressure remains dominant across the region. No changes needed to the current forecast as clear skies and a near calm wind will allow for cooler than normal temperatures again by morning. In fact, this high pressure will have influence over us for the next few days. Due to this high pressure, clear skies will prevail tonight.
A closed upper low spins over central Quebec with associated troughing extending south over the eastern U.
High pressure building in today will lead to dry conditions and clear skies. Today will be the last cooler day before the weekend warm up, with highs topping out in the 20s. Southwest flow in the low levels will become established and will help to push the warm air into the region.
927 PM CST Thu Feb 27 2020 One short wave trough leaving this evening taking the scattered rain/snow showers with it while another one moves in behind after midnight. Also, added in some fog to the east tonight with clearing behind the first short wave trough. Upper ridging will then slowly build east over the northern Plains on Friday with warmer, drier air advecting in from the west.
1236 AM CST Fri Feb 28 2020 Overnight update to reflect sharpening trough and baroclinic lift along surface frontal boundary moving southeast through southeast Missouri and southern Illinois at this time. It will be warmer with this disturbance, so just light rain or sprinkles are possible.
247 AM CST Fri Feb 28 2020 Early this morning an amplified upper level trough was located across the eastern half the of the US. A broad upper level ridge was located across the west-central US. A strong northwesterly mid and upper level jet, on the west side of the upper level trough across the eastern US, will shift east across KS into MO Tonight, while the upper ridge across the west central US shifts east and amplifies across the central Rockies.
923 PM CST Thu Feb 27 2020 Clear skies continue to dominate our region of the country this evening with high pressure ridging remaining across SE TX towards the S LA coast. Winds have become southerly north of this ridging across our region with a weak cold front and wind shift noted across NE OK into NW TX. Current forecast has a pretty good handle on this with cooler forecast temperatures across our northern and easter third as these areas are typically a little more protected. /issued 510 PM CST Thu Feb 27 2020/ Sfc ridging has shifted south and east of our region this evening resulting in mostly variable wind directions which will continue into the overnight hours with speeds near or less than 6kts.
High pressure ridge is forecast to build in aloft with low-level NW winds decrease and also the threat for LLWS decreases after midnight tonight. With the widespread snowmelt today, plenty of low level moisture and light winds overnight will likely lead to areas of fog, particularly in the low lying areas. Some of the fog could be dense at times and may lead to slick spots as temperatures fall below freezing. Another night of fog is possible Friday night as a ridge overhead begins to move off to the east.
1122 PM CST Thu Feb 27 2020 Mostly clear skies across the Northland region this afternoon thanks to a strong high pressure system. Low temperatures around 0 are likely across Cass and Crow Wing counties as a weak trough brings increased cloud cover and light snow across north-central Minnesota. A strong upper level ridge begins moving into the region on Friday, with mostly sunny skies and generally light winds.
No changes needed to the current forecast as clear skies and a near calm wind will allow for cooler than normal temperatures again by morning. In fact, this high pressure will have influence over us for the next few days. Due to this high pressure, clear skies will prevail tonight.
Cold front currently across Eastern Oklahoma and NW TX will continue to push rapidly south and east overnight with winds becoming northwesterly at all terminal locations by 28/1500 or so.
Wet bulbs across the area are around freezing and in the upper 20s along the Plateau. Freezing levels should drop rather quickly when the precip begins.
1253 AM EST Fri Feb 28 2020 Ridging along the Gulf Coast will maintain a dry westerly flow into the forecast area through Friday.
256 AM EST Fri Feb 28 2020 Ridging along the Gulf Coast will maintain a dry westerly flow into the forecast area today.
1032 PM CST Thu Feb 27 2020 At the surface, high pressure was building in from the northwest early this afternoon. A chilly northwest flow pattern across the area will continue through Friday with a deep longwave trough anchored over the eastern US. Northwest flow aloft will be replaced by broad ridging and persistent low to mid-level warm advection heading into the weekend.
Guidance brings these clouds to the SSE overnight, bringing a fairly cloudy sunrise to the Lower Keys while leaving the Upper Keys mostly clear. CAMS guidance then brings these weak showers southeastward across the Lower Keys on Fri morning, dropping a few hundredths of an inch of rain at most. Nonetheless, have introduced a slight chance of showers to the Lower Keys on Fri morning. Over the Upper Keys particularly, clearer skies and NW-N winds blowing decidedly off the Florida Peninsula will push temperatures into the lower 50s by sunrise. Over the Gulf, the Pulley Ridge buoy most recently reported a 8-foot seas at 9 seconds, with a mean wave direction from the WNW. A high pressure center will persist near the coastal bend of Texas through Friday.
Most notable feature on today's synoptic scale map is an upper low positioned near Lake Superior. Southwest of this feature, broad northwesterly flow is in place ahead on a high amplitude ridge along the Pacific Coast.
1140 PM CST Thu Feb 27 2020 Widespread VFR conditions are expected through the period with high pressure centered along the central gulf coast.
VFR through the period with clear skies and light winds as high pressure remains overhead. Another cold night looks to be in store this evening with temperatures dipping into the 30s across most of the area, although a drop below freezing like we saw across the northern portion of the area last night is not expected. An onshore flow pattern will begin to redevelop overnight on Friday as high pressure slides eastward, which should pave the way for warm and moist conditions this weekend.
1125 PM CST Thu Feb 27 2020 Dry high pressure will maintain clear skies across the forecast area. Dry high pressure will maintain clear skies across the forecast area. /issued 401 PM CST Thu Feb 27 2020/ High pressure has settled into the region last night and with clear skies and light winds this morning. temperatures started out in the upper 20s around AEX with freezing temperatures as far south as LCH and BPT. Dew points have been on the increase as high pressure has moved a bit further to the east today. Temperatures will be warmer as the dew points have come up a bit.
Contrary to the situation last night, lows are running slightly warmer than expected as drainage flow has been highly variable despite clear skies and light flow aloft.
619 AM EST Fri Feb 28 2020 Ridging along the Gulf Coast will maintain a dry westerly flow into the forecast area today. A cold front with little moisture will move through the area tonight into Saturday.
322 AM CST Fri Feb 28 2020 A weak disturbance will trigger light snow or flurries across central Illinois today with afternoon high temperatures only reaching the lower to middle 30s.
422 AM CST Fri Feb 28 2020 Today and tonight: High pressure still dominating much of the ArkLaMiss region today, but a quick short wave aloft is pushing some mid level clouds and sct showers across the northern tier of the state. Mostly sunny skies are expected through the day again, and temperatures should be a few degrees warmer than yesterday.
Highs will range from the lower 30s to lower 40s. Leap Day is shaping up to be one the warmest days of the year (so far), as the thermal ridge moves over the northern Plains.
That change, in the form of a cold front, will quickly sweep across Idaho and Montana throughout the day. Upwards of 6 to 8 inches are expected atop some of the higher peaks of the Bitterroot Mountains north of US-12 and especially across the southern Mission Mountains.
High pressure that follows tonight will bring clearing skies and colder temperatures. The afternoon should see clearing skies from north to south as this system quickly exits to the southeast and transitory high pressure moves in from the northwest for tonight. This weekend: Warming trend big time as strengthening low pressure tracks along the U. This will pull much warmer air northward on southwest winds.
Temperatures have dropped in the low lying sheltered areas (like Sonora) , with readings in the mid 20s.
332 AM CST Fri Feb 28 2020 Fog will linger along the Highway 83 corridor and points east this morning behind a band of light snow that continues to diminish in the vicinity of the James River Valley. Later this afternoon, a broad western US ridge will begin to nudge further into western and central North Dakota, bringing mild temperatures to the area. Expect widespread highs in the 30s and 40s with an outside shot at 50 somewhere across the west, closer to the ridge axis. With continued warm air advection and the upper-level ridge building further east, expect even warmer temperatures on Saturday, with the southwest seeing the lower 50s. However, clouds will start filtering in again ahead of an approaching cold front that will swing through Saturday night.
The HRRR and RAP models were a few degrees cooler. This will also dislodge 1033 mb high pressure across nrn Colorado and send a surge of dry air into wrn and ncntl Nebraska. The west and southwest winds in the 850-700mb levels should support deep mixing and the warmer temperature forecast.
With temperatures falling to near freezing, will have to watch for some ice/freezing fog, but w/road sfc temperatures in the mid 30s we are not expecting impacts. May have to watch out for some fog tonight where the low levels have some moisture, otherwise it looks quiet.
Afternoon temperatures will continue to get warmer through the weekend, with Saturday likely being the warmest day of the week.
Showers should mix with light snow or flurries in the next couple hours over northwest Tennessee as the freezing line continues to drop south from north-central Missouri. Expect highs in the lower 50s today. A ridge will settle over the Mid-South later tonight, delivering a pleasant weekend and sunshine.
High pressure aloft will settle over the Great Basin through tonight.
High temperatures will be in the upper 40s to low 50s! Great news for the weekend! An upper level ridge is expected to build into the area and southerly surface flow will return bringing warmer temperatures into the area. Can't really say that March will be "in like a lion" because we are expecting dry weather and many locations reaching the low 60s! Normal for this time of year is still the lower 40s, so the weekend highs will certainly feel pleasant. Models have consistently under-done high temperatures on our recent warm days, so have nudged high temperatures to the high end of guidance. Expect highs in the low to mid 60s on Saturday.
This should limit any snowfall across northern and central Missouri to trace amounts as the trough glides swiftly through the area. Expect off and on snow showers through a good portion of the day, transitioning to off and on rain by the late morning or early afternoon as surface temperatures rise into the lower to middle 40s.
315 AM MST Fri Feb 28 2020 An upper ridge will cause mild and dry weather to continue across the Northern Rockies today into Saturday. Locally cooler air is possible this afternoon from central Carbon County northeastward to southwestern Yellowstone County as cooler air flows out of the Bighorn Basin. The upper ridge has also facilitated an appreciable sea-level pressure gradient over south central MT that has produced gusty winds in the Livingston to Nye corridor this morning. Low pressure over Canada will bring a cold front eastward over the area Saturday afternoon and cause winds to turn northwesterly. A few snow showers are possible over the lower elevations Saturday evening, but with strong subsidence expected in the middle levels of the atmosphere precipitation amounts will be light.
The GFS and NAM operational continue to hold their contain convective signatures, albeit weak ones, with lifted indices at 15 (the lowest end) and modest cold pools.
As a cold front moves across the region on Saturday, windy conditions can be expected along Rocky Mountain Front and adjacent plains with light precipitation developing over the mountains.
Fog will linger along the Highway 83 corridor and points east this morning behind a band of light snow that continues to diminish in the vicinity of the James River Valley. Later this afternoon, a broad western US ridge will begin to nudge further into western and central North Dakota, bringing mild temperatures to the area. Expect widespread highs in the 30s and 40s with an outside shot at 50 somewhere across the west, closer to the ridge axis. With continued warm air advection and the upper-level ridge building further east, expect even warmer temperatures on Saturday, with the southwest seeing the lower 50s. However, clouds will start filtering in again ahead of an approaching cold front that will swing through Saturday night.