Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
GIVEN THIS ALONG WITH THE LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS WILL FAVOR TEMPERATURES TONIGHT LITTLE WARMER THAN WHAT THE LATEST MOSGUIDE,MAV, AND MET GUIDANCE WAS SUGGESTING. A REINFORCEMENT OF COLDER AIR WILL INVADE WESTERN KANSAS EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AS A SECONDARY COLD FRONT, WHICH WAS LOCATED ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA AND MONTANA EARLIER THIS MORNING, CROSSES WESTERN KANSAS. GFS WAS EVEN A FEW DEGREES COOLER BETWEEN 18Z THURSDAY AND 00Z FRIDAY. INITIALLY COOLER AND SLIGHTLY BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY NIGHT FOLLOWING AN EARLY THURSDAY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE RECENT MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD THEN COME TO AN END AS LOWS FALL THROUGH THE FREEZING MARK INTO THE 20S ONCE AGAIN.
LOWS WILL BE CONSIDERABLY WARMER THAN THIS MORNING.
SURFACE WINDS SHOULD WEAKEN A LITTLE AFTER 08Z AS A PRE-FRONTAL MOVES THROUGH WITH WINDS VEERING MORE SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY BEFORE THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES AROUND DAYBREAK. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND SHOULD CROSS THE RED RIVER TOWARD SUNRISE. TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL BE CONSIDERABLY COOLER THAN TODAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S. BRECKENRIDGE. A COLD FRONT ARRIVES TONIGHT BRINGING MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES. COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL BE FELT BEHIND THE FRONT BUT TEMPERATURES WILL NOT CONTINUOUSLY FALL THROUGH THE DAY. LIFT WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM THE WEST AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHERN AND BAJA CALIFORNIA.
453 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST AND CREST ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.
THOUGHT IT WAS PRUDENT TO EXPAND THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY. DONT THINK THE EXPANDED ADVISORY AREA WILL SEE AS WIDESPREAD OF A LIGHT ICE GLAZE BECAUSE OF SOME ABOVE FREEZING READINGS. DEWPOINTS ARE IN UPPER 20S OVER MUCH OF FORECAST AREA LEADING TO A WET-BULB BELOW FREEZING WITH PRECIPITATION. A CANADIAN COLD FRONT WILL MOVE QUICKLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA.
341 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015 A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDED SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM TAHLEQUAH OKLAHOMA /KTQH/. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 60 DEGREES ACROSS THE SHERMAN TO GRAHAM AREA TO THE LOWER 70S ACROSS THE TEMPLE TO PALESTINE AREA.
FREEZING DRIZZLE RETURNS WERE NOTED IN AREAS WHERE MID LEVEL RETURNS WERE LESS DEVELOPED. WITH SPOTTY OBSERVATIONS NORTHWEST OF THIS BAND NEAR DLH REPORTING FREEZING DRIZZLE AGAIN. WILL LET THE FREEZING DRIZZLE/RAIN HEADLINE RUN ITS COURSE THIS MORNING AND EVALUATE RADAR TRENDS AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES AT DAYBREAK FOR CHANGES. WARM START THIS AM WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S OVER NORTHEAST WISCONSIN THEN TURN STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL.
1046 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015 SOUTHERLY WINDS TO CONTINUE NEAR 10 KTS OVERNIGHT AS COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY ENTERING NORTHERN OK. TO ACCOMPANY COLD FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALOFT AND ON THE SURFACE CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST FROM THE FORECAST AREA. WHICH IS ONLY A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN THE NORMAL MAX TEMP FOR TODAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FROM NW TO SE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE THURSDAY. HIGH TEMPS THURSDAY WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER NORTH OF A LINE FROM KJSO-KELD WHERE SOME PLACES MAY BE 15-20 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY.
231 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015 CROSSING LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION TO THE UPPER OHIO REGION TODAY AND SNOW EARLY ON FRIDAY. HAVE EXTENDED THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY TO COVER MOST OF MY OHIO ZONES. ALL THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A STRONG SURGE OF WARMER AIR ENVELOPING MY ENTIRE CWA TODAY. THIS SHOWS UP QUIET WELL IN THE THERMAL PATTERN AT 850MB AND IN THE LOW AND MID-LEVEL THICKNESS PATTERNS. WET BULBING WILL ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN. COLD ADVECTION BEGINS IN EARNEST ALOFT AS TWO SHORT WAVE TROUGHS ARE SET TO CROSS THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. HOWEVER THE DENDRITIC GROWTH LAYER LOOKS TO CRASH TOWARD THE SURFACE TONIGHT IN THE RIDGES. 3 TO 6 INCH TOTALS SEEM REASONABLE IN THE RIDGES BY FRIDAY MORNING.
1249 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015 CROSSING LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION TO THE UPPER OHIO REGION TODAY AND SNOW EARLY ON FRIDAY. ALL THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A STRONG SURGE OF WARMER AIR ENVELOPING MY ENTIRE CWA TODAY. THIS SHOWS UP QUIET WELL IN THE THERMAL PATTERN AT 850MB AND IN THE LOW AND MID-LEVEL THICKNESS PATTERNS. WET BULBING WILL ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN. COLD ADVECTION BEGINS IN EARNEST ALOFT AS TWO SHORT WAVE TROUGHS ARE SET TO CROSS THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. HOWEVER THE DENDRITIC GROWTH LAYER LOOKS TO CRASH TOWARD THE SURFACE TONIGHT IN THE RIDGES. 3 TO 6 INCH TOTALS SEEM REASONABLE IN THE RIDGES BY FRIDAY MORNING.
/ISSUED 928 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015/ MIDEVENING GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED CONSIDERABLE HIGH CLOUDINESS SPREADING EAST THROUGH THE LOWER/MIDDLE MS RIVER VALLEY IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER LOW ALONG THE NE/KS BORDER. THIS SYSTEM WILL HELP TO ADVANCE A SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION ON THURSDAY.
327 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015 A COLD FRONT WAS MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AS OF 08Z. SOME FOG AND LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE WAS OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. EXPECT THE FREEZING DRIZZLE TO COME TO AN END BEFORE 10Z AND THE FOG TO DISSIPATE. WITH THE DRY AIR FROM THE HIGH BUILDING INTO THE FORECAST AREA. SOME LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION BEGINS AND DRIER AIR FROM THE HIGH BEGINS TO SHUT DOWN THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. WILL SEE ABOUT ONE INCH OF ACCUMULATION OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF IRON COUNTY.
1237 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015 CROSSING LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION TO THE UPPER OHIO REGION TODAY AND SNOW EARLY ON FRIDAY. ALL THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A STRONG SURGE OF WARMER AIR ENVELOPING MY ENTIRE CWA TODAY. THIS SHOWS UP QUIET WELL IN THE THERMAL PATTERN AT 850MB AND IN THE LOW AND MID-LEVEL THICKNESS PATTERNS. WET BULBING WILL ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN. COLD ADVECTION BEGINS IN EARNEST ALOFT AS TWO SHORT WAVE TROUGHS ARE SET TO CROSS THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. HOWEVER THE DENDRITIC GROWTH LAYER LOOKS TO CRASH TOWARD THE SURFACE TONIGHT IN THE RIDGES. 3 TO 6 INCH TOTALS SEEM REASONABLE IN THE RIDGES BY FRIDAY MORNING.
Fog developing in the Great Falls area, and many locations across north central Montana have small temperature/dewpoint spread, so have added mention of patchy freezing fog there through Thursday morning. Most lower elevation sites now forecast to drop into the lower to mid 20s.
COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH GUSTY WINDS DEVELOPING AFTER SUNRISE. SOME 20 TO 25 DEGREES COOLER THURSDAY THAN TODAY. COLD FRONT TO PASS THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT TURNING WINDS NORTHWESTERLY. INCLUDE THE HIGH FIRE DANGER THREAT THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING.
116 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015 HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE GULF COAST WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING AND MOVE OFFSHORE LATER TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT.
300 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015 FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE LINGERING PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE EARLY THIS MORNING. EMBEDDED S/WV MID LEVEL TROUGH EXITING NORTH DAKOTA. THIS FEATURE CONTINUES TO CREATE PATCHY DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE MAINLY ALONG TO SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 94. WITH DAYTIME HIGHS NOT MUCH WARMER THAN THEY ARE NOW.
The center of the high will slide east of the area by the end of the day as a weak cold front approaches.
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 31 54 34 46 / 10 30 20 0 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 27 51 32 39 / 10 30 30 10 OAK RIDGE, TN 27 49 32 41 / 10 30 30 10 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 21 50 30 36 / 10 50 60 10.
A WEAK TROUGH IS PRESENT ALONG THE OREGON COAST WITH MID LEVEL AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS MUCH OF OUR AREA. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO NORTHERN OREGON BY THURSDAY MORNING WITH A NOTABLE DECREASE IN THE CURRENT CLOUD COVER AFTER AROUND 5 AM PST.
936 PM PST WED JAN 28 2015 Areas of low clouds and fog will persist across portions of Inland Northwest as high pressure remains in place.
231 AM CST Thu Jan 29 2015 Temperatures were still unseasonably mild early this morning across the Missouri Ozarks and extreme southeast Kansas with readings still from the low 50s to around 60. A cold front was in the process of pushing into the area with a northwest wind edging into the western CWA as of 2 am. A large low level cloud shield was quickly tracking southeast behind the front and area of low pressure and is expected to influence much of the CWA today. A closed low will develop with this system and ridging out ahead of it in the southern into central Plains on Friday.
A second cold front will impact the area from the northeast tonight causing another round of snow, but this time with wind and much colder temperatures.
PRECIPITATION WILL QUICKLY CHANGE OVER TO RAIN THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY TONIGHT AS A STRONG WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. ANY ICE/SLEET/SNOW THAT DOES ACCUMULATE TODAY WILL RAPIDLY MELT AFTER TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE FREEZING. THE THOUSAND DOLLAR QUESTION IS WHEN EXACTLY TEMPERATURES WILL RISE ABOVE FREEZING LIMITING THE THREAT OF ACCUMULATING WINTRY PRECIPITATION. OBVIOUSLY IT WILL NOT WARM UNIFORMLY ACROSS ALL OF THE MIDSOUTH BUT CURRENT THINKING HAS THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA AREA NEAR AND SOUTH OF MEMPHIS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING AROUND MIDDAY. AND ALL BUT FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE MIDSOUTH NEAR OR ABOVE FREEZING BY SUNSET. EVEN WITH ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE 40S TO LOW 60S WARMEST IN NORTH MISSISSIPPI AHEAD OF A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT.
Warm advection ahead of the low will start to spread light snow toward southern IL, and will see a chance of precipitation mainly south of I-72 by late afternoon. Models develop light snow across central and southeast IL during this evening from sw to ne and gets mixed with sleet south of a Springfield to Terre Haute line and eventually light freezing rain in southeast IL overnight into Sat morning.
WE HAVE DECIDED TO GO AHEAD AND ISSUE A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA FOR THE REST OF THE MORNING. THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW REPORTS OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND DRIZZLE OVER BUTLER COUNTY. BUT MOTORISTS SHOULD BE ALERT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW SLICK SPOTS ESPECIALLY ON BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES. AND BE ABOVE FREEZING BY MID TO LATE MORNING. FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL NOON FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BUTLER. FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL NOON FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WAYNE.
SHOWERS WILL LINGER THROUGH TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS.
325 AM PST FRI FEB 20 2015 MOSTLY QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK DUE TO A LACK OF MOISTURE AND A PERSISTENT OFFSHORE RIDGE. INLAND TEMPERATURES WILL COOL A FEW DEGREES LATE THIS WEEKEND AS THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE.
306 AM PST FRI FEB 20 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ALONG THE WEST COAST WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AGAIN TODAY.
IT APPEARS THE WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR FREEZING RAIN. A FEW HOURS OF FREEZING RAIN IS FORECAST IN THE EVENING ONLY. AS A VIGOROUS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH THE REGION ON SAT. WITH A POSSIBLE WINTRY MIX FOR WRN KY LATE BEFORE DAYBREAK AS TEMPS CRASH AGAIN BELOW FREEZING. PERSISTENT RIDGE OVER THE PACIFIC OFF THE WEST COAST AND LOW CENTERS FROM GREENLAND TO HUDSON BAY WILL KEEP BROAD TROF AND LOW HEIGHTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE NATION ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE ROCKIES.
1005 AM EST FRI FEB 20 2015 A COLD PRESSURE RIDGE WILL EXTEND THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TODAY.
MOST OF THE REGION REPORTED AT OR BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS MORNING. HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH THE LOWER 50S OVER THE NORTHERN COUNTIES. MID 50S NEAR TAMPA BAY AND THE LOWER 60S SOUTH OF TAMPA BAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL BLAST THROUGH THE PANHANDLES BETWEEN 04Z AND 06Z TONIGHT. THEN A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE PANHANDLES TONIGHT WITH A RE-REINFORCING SHOT SATURDAY NIGHT.
BUT A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA BY SATURDAY MORNING BRINGING MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES. THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME CONCERN FOR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AS THE STRENGTHENING WARM ADVECTION ABOVE THE SHALLOW COLD AIR CREATES A SUBSTANTIAL MID LEVEL WARM LAYER IN THE THERMAL PROFILES. AM MOST CONCERNED WITH PRECIPITATION MOVING INTO THE GREENWOOD TO COLUMBUS CORRIDOR LATER THIS MORNING GIVEN THAT IS WHERE SUB-FREEZING SURFACE AIR WILL BE TOUGHER TO WARM. INCREASING MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL GENERATE SHOWER ACTIVITY - AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BECOME POSSIBLE AS A FAIRLY ROBUST MOISTURE PLUME IS DRAWN NORTHWARD AND COMBINES WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY TO BRING TSTM POTENTIAL.
635 AM EST FRI FEB 20 2015 A COLD PRESSURE RIDGE WILL EXTEND THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TODAY.
A LOT OF THIS CLOUD COVER WEST OF THE I35 CORRIDOR SHOULD DETERIORATE TODAY AS A THERMAL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE WEST. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN BREEZY SOUTH WINDS OF 15-25 MPH ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES AND THE HIGHEST WIND POTENTIAL IN THE NORTHEASTERNMOST LOCATIONS. OUR NEXT BIG COLD FRONT PASSAGE WILL OCCUR LATE SATURDAY.
A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH LATE TONIGHT TURNING WINDS NORTHWESTERLY AND GUSTY. STRONG WARM ADVECTION OCCURRING ABOVE THE COLD AIR WILL EVENTUALLY CAUSE PRECIP TO BREAK OUT LATER THIS MORNING IN LIQUID FORM WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT ICING IN AREAS THAT REMAIN BELOW FREEZING LONG ENOUGH. MOST SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE WARMS TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING IN ALL AREAS BEFORE MORE SIGNIFICANT RAIN DEVELOPS AND WILL MAINLY INDICATE PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE THROUGH THE MORNING. BUT EVEN THIS AREA LIKELY TO WARM ABOVE FREEZING. BECAUSE OF THE SHORT DURATION AND VERY LIGHT NATURE OF FREEZING PRECIP WILL NOT ISSUE AN ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. STRONG WARM ADVECTION PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD PRECIP AND AT LEAST SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG AND NORTH OF WARM FRONT.
THE WINTER STORM STILL LOOKS TO BRING A SHORT PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN. WILL BE LOOKING AT THE HIGH WIND POTENTIAL FOR SATURDAY IN THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS.
405 AM CST FRI FEB 20 2015 THE REGION SITS UNDER GENERAL NORTHWEST FLOW WITH A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US. DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE MAY BE POSSIBLE BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON WITH MOISTURE TRANSPORT. WARMER AIR ALOFT. DRIZZLE/RAIN SHOWERS/FREEZING DRIZZLE/FREEZING RAIN/SNOW. DESPITE THIS FEEL THAT THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE EARLY THIS MORNING AND OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT WILL ONLY BROACH THE FREEZING MARK. THUS HAVE NOT ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE/RAIN AT THIS TIME.
448 AM CST FRI FEB 20 2015 THE REGION SITS UNDER GENERAL NORTHWEST FLOW WITH A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US. DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE MAY BE POSSIBLE BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON WITH MOISTURE TRANSPORT OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS. WARMER AIR ALOFT AND MOIST LOW LEVELS PRECIPITATION WILL COME IN ALL FORMS. DRIZZLE/RAIN SHOWERS/FREEZING DRIZZLE/FREEZING RAIN/SNOW. DESPITE THIS FEEL THAT THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE EARLY THIS MORNING AND OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT WILL ONLY BROACH THE FREEZING MARK. THUS HAVE NOT ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE/RAIN AT THIS TIME.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER. DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT AND VERY WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW-LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL MAKE IT QUITE WARM IN OUR TEXAS COUNTIES TODAY. COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONTINUING.
THE REGION SITS UNDER GENERAL NORTHWEST FLOW WITH A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US. DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE MAY BE POSSIBLE BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON WITH MOISTURE TRANSPORT OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS. WARMER AIR ALOFT AND MOIST LOW LEVELS PRECIPITATION WILL COME IN ALL FORMS. DRIZZLE/RAIN SHOWERS/FREEZING DRIZZLE/FREEZING RAIN/SNOW. DESPITE THIS FEEL THAT THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE EARLY THIS MORNING AND OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT WILL ONLY BROACH THE FREEZING MARK. THUS HAVE NOT ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE/RAIN AT THIS TIME.
WHICH WILL BE APPROX TIME OF COLD FRONT WIND SHIFT.
WHICH WILL BE APPROX TIME OF COLD FRONT WINDSHIFT.
WITH A BRIEF HIT OF MILDER AIR MOVING THROUGH TODAY OUT AHEAD OF THE NEXT ARCTIC COLD FRONT. WITH SOME FLURRIES LIKELY RETURNING IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT THIS EVENING. SO WE WILL HAVE TO SEE IF THAT CLEARING CAN FOLLOW THE WARM FRONT UP INTO SRN MN. THE LONG WAVE RIDGE-TROUGH-RIDGE PATTERN STRETCHING FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC TO WESTERN ATLANTIC REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THE NEXT 7-10 DAYS OFF. THIS MEANS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY /AND MOST OF THE CONUS FOR THAT MATTER/ WILL REMAIN FIRMLY UNDER THE UPPER TROUGH AND CONTINUE TO SEE TEMPS 15 TO 30 BELOW NORMAL FOR THE SECOND HALF OF FEBRUARY.
908 AM CST FRI FEB 20 2015 COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SLIDE SOUTH THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WITH LIGHT SNOW CONTINUING ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
STRONG WARM ADVECTION OCCURRING ABOVE THE COLD AIR WILL EVENTUALLY CAUSE PRECIP TO BREAK OUT LATER THIS MORNING IN LIQUID FORM WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT ICING IN AREAS THAT REMAIN BELOW FREEZING LONG ENOUGH. MOST SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE WARMS TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING IN ALL AREAS BEFORE MORE SIGNIFICANT RAIN DEVELOPS AND WILL MAINLY INDICATE PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE THROUGH THE MORNING. BUT EVEN THIS AREA LIKELY TO WARM ABOVE FREEZING. BECAUSE OF THE SHORT DURATION AND VERY LIGHT NATURE OF FREEZING PRECIP WILL NOT ISSUE AN ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. STRONG WARM ADVECTION PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD PRECIP AND AT LEAST SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG AND NORTH OF WARM FRONT.
429 AM CST FRI FEB 20 2015 THE REGION SITS UNDER GENERAL NORTHWEST FLOW WITH A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US. DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE MAY BE POSSIBLE BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON WITH MOISTURE TRANSPORT OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS. WARMER AIR ALOFT AND MOIST LOW LEVELS PRECIPITATION WILL COME IN ALL FORMS. DRIZZLE/RAIN SHOWERS/FREEZING DRIZZLE/FREEZING RAIN/SNOW. DESPITE THIS FEEL THAT THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE EARLY THIS MORNING AND OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT WILL ONLY BROACH THE FREEZING MARK. THUS HAVE NOT ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE/RAIN AT THIS TIME.
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA THIS WEEKEND.
524 AM CST FRI FEB 20 2015 A DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING LIGHT FREEZING PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA THIS MORNING. WARMER AIR WILL SURGE IN LATER TODAY AND ALL PRECIPITATION WILL TURN TO RAIN.
TEMPS FELL INTO THE LOW AND MID 20S DUE TO THE VERY DRY (LOW DEWPOINT) AIR IN NORTH LAKE/INTRR VOLUSIA COUNTIES. IT WILL BE CHILLY AGAIN TODAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 50S ALONG THE VOLUSIA COAST TO THE LOWER 60S TREASURE COAST. WITH SOME COASTAL LOCATIONS EXPECTED TO BE NEARLY 20F WARMER THAN THIS MORNING.
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE CLEARLY SEEN ON THE 850 MB PRESSURE FIELD WILL APPROACH THE MIDWEST AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES. 04 INCHES OF QPF WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES OVER THE NE FORECAST AREA. MAX TEMPS WILL BE WARMER THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS REACHING THE LOWER 30S OVER THE FAR SW TO NEAR 20 F IN THE NE. DON'T THINK PRECIP TYPE WILL BE TOO MUCH OF ANY ISSUE WITH DYNAMIC COOLING CHANGING ANY AREA OF MIXED FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW OVER TO ALL SNOW. ARE IN GOOD GENERAL AGREEMENT IN KEEPING UPPER TROUGHING IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS.
939 AM CST FRI FEB 20 2015 WE HAVE ADDED SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE TO NW MN FROM BDE-BJI. WITH THE UPPER TROUGH DIGGING DOWN OUT OF CANADA.
Fair skies and warmer temperatures mid week. Building high pressure aloft over the eastern Pacific keeping areas outside the valley under fair skies with even high clouds being shunted north of the region. This system is not forecast to have a major impact on Norcal weather on Saturday but could start to impact the area by Saturday night as the upper trough digs into northeast California.
FOR TODAY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING BREEZY AND COOLER CONDITIONS TO SE OREGON AND SW IDAHO. FORECAST MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN DROPPING A SHARP UPPER LOW THROUGH SE OREGON AND SW IDAHO ON SATURDAY. THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL FAVOR A NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW THAT WILL CONCENTRATE ITS STRENGTH OVER BAKER COUNTY AND THE LOWER TREASURE VALLEY BY AFTERNOON.
WARMER AIR IS EXPECTED TO WIN OUT A FEW THOUSAND FEET OFF THE SURFACE. THIS WILL ACT TO CHANGE THE PRECIPITATION OVER FROM SNOW TO SLEET AND THEN QUICKLY TO FREEZING RAIN. THE FREEZING RAIN WILL BEGIN ACROSS OUR SOUTHWESTERN AREAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE MID STATE THIS EVENING. THE FREEZING RAIN WILL CHANGE TO RAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT SOUTHWESTERN AREAS.
BROAD NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER OUR REGION WITH A TROUGH TRACKING INTO THE ROCKIES. LOOKS LIKE TODAY WILL NOT BE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT DAY WITH TEMPERATURES STILL WARM ENOUGH TO PREVENT ANY SNOW OR MIX FROM ACCUMULATING AT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. THE HIGH COUNTRY SHOULD STILL SEE A FEW INCHES OF SNOWFALL. LATE TODAY THOUGH THE COLDER AIR WILL INVADE BEHIND THE INITIAL TROUGH PASSAGE.
A cold front will move into the Big Country after 06z, shifting winds to the north at KABI around 09z. These clouds, in conjunction with a strong low-level jet, have resulted in minimum temperatures in the low/mid 50s areawide. This would suggest high temperatures today a good 10-14F warmer than yesterday's readings. Thus, forecast highs for this afternoon are in the lower 80s north of an Ozona-Coleman line. Farther southeast, slightly cooler 850 mb temps and longer duration of A. The low-level jet will be a player again tonight, although it should shift east after midnight as a cold front advances toward Interstate 20. The leading edge of a cooler airmass is expected to reach I-20 by sunrise Saturday, shifting winds to the north.
WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION SCENARIO DEVELOPING IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATM 21/00Z-21/12Z. WITH THEN A TRANSITION TO FREEZING RAIN AROUND AND AFTER 21/02Z. WITH ICE PELLETS AND FREEZING RAIN MIXING IN ACROSS ERN PORTIONS OF THE MID STATE THRU 21/06Z. A TRANSITION TO ALL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED AFTER 21/09Z CKV/BNA WITH PREDOMINATE FREEZING RAIN CSV THRU 21/12Z. WARMER AIR IS EXPECTED TO WIN OUT A FEW THOUSAND FEET OFF THE SURFACE. THIS WILL ACT TO CHANGE THE PRECIPITATION OVER FROM SNOW TO SLEET AND THEN QUICKLY TO FREEZING RAIN. THE FREEZING RAIN WILL BEGIN ACROSS OUR SOUTHWESTERN AREAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE MID STATE THIS EVENING. THE FREEZING RAIN WILL CHANGE TO RAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT SOUTHWESTERN AREAS.
627 AM EST FRI FEB 20 2015 RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL GIVE WAY TO AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
207 AM PST FRI FEB 20 2015 A STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE REGION DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A POSSIBILITY OF RAIN TO MUCH OF THE REGION.
A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THIS WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND CALIFORNIA COAST.
Periodic showers will continue into this afternoon across the higher terrain but with warming surface temperatures, overall impacts are expected to be minor for area passes. The wet weather is expected to decrease later today as high pressure begins shifting into the region.
244 PM EST TUE FEB 10 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT AND WILL CREST OVER THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.
As the low off the Carolinas moves up the east coast, high pressure will move in from the west.
1005 AM CST TUE FEB 10 2015 CLOUD COVER SO FAR THIS MORNING HAS BEEN SLOW TO BURN OFF AND HAS EFFECTIVELY KEPT TEMPERATURES COOLER THAN FORECAST. 09Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE BACK THROUGH THE NORTHERN GULF COAST AND CAROLINA COAST.
COLD FRONT STILL ANTICIPATED TO MOVE THROUGH AREA LATE TONIGHT/EARLY WED. -HOWERTON GFS/ECMWF REMAIN IN SURPRISINGLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH RIDGE BUILDING IN THE WESTERN US AND TROUGHING IN THE EAST. SENDING MUCH COOLER AIR INTO THE AREA ON SAT. THERE WAS SUFFICIENT AGREEMENT BETWEEN MODELS AND SURROUNDING OFFICES TO HEDGE COOLER THAN GUIDANCE FOR NOW. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.
1220 PM EST TUE FEB 10 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION LATER TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
THE LOW CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY ERODE OVER THE AREA. GRADUALLY CLEARING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 49 31 60 35 / 0 0 0 10 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 46 29 57 34 / 0 0 0 10 OAK RIDGE, TN 46 29 57 33 / 0 0 0 20 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 42 23 55 31 / 10 0 0 20.
TEMPS ARE TRENDING A FEW DEGREES COOLER ACROSS THE MID-STATE.