Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Drier and warmer today. Behind this rain, clearing skies resulting in cooling in the low levels with new low cloud development spreading east/southeast into our area. However, with northwest flow developing from the surface into the mid and upper levels, this low level moisture will likely mix out by mid to late morning, resulting in mostly sunny skies developing by late morning or early afternoon. Warmer temperatures with highs mainly in the 50s will result from clearing skies and downsloping westerly winds.
427 AM MST Sat Jan 28 2017 Western CONUS ridge will slowly push east in the period, with perturbed flow remaining on the western periphery of the Great Lakes trough. Western conus ridge will continue to shift east Sunday, with warmer wx expected all places.
939 AM EST Sat Jan 28 2017 Low pressure will remain over Atlantic Canada through the weekend.
938 AM EST Sat Jan 28 2017 A trough of low pressure will move across the local area later today. It will be followed by a cold front late Sunday.
The upper trough of low pressure will continue to drift south taking the jet to also move South allowing cloud cover to decrease. The surface cold front will move across today and tonight re-enforcing the cold and dry air.
1000 AM EST Sat Jan 28 2017 The region will be in between low pressure over southeastern Canada and high pressure over the Rockies this weekend with a couple of weak troughs or cold fronts moving through.
554 AM EST Sat Jan 28 2017 A trough of low pressure will move across the local area later today. It will be followed by a cold front late Sunday.
A ridge of high pressure will continue to amplify over the Northern Rockies today. Fog is not expected to be widespread or thick given some high level cloud cover currently moving over the ridge.
759 AM EST Sat Jan 28 2017 A PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE SOUTH WILL DIRECT A DRY WESTERLY FLOW INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH SUNDAY. The pressure gradient between the ridge and low pressure well to the north will help cause breezy conditions during the late mornings and afternoons. A pressure ridge along the Gulf Coast will direct a dry westerly flow into the forecast area.
Did get a report of freezing drizzle from Fayette County this morning. Minor updates to temperatures as well, with highs expected to straddle freezing. A modest short wave trough looks to emerge from the western Great Lakes in cyclonic flow aloft across Lake Erie tonight. This manages to drag an 850 mb cold front across Lake Erie and into northern PA as the main impetus for its southward migration starts to shift east of the area on Sunday. Frontogenetical forcing in the low levels along this front looks to be co- located with the dendritic growth zone, so while moisture depth is not impressive, it seems to be located in the proper thermal layer for snow formation.
842 AM CST Sat Jan 28 2017 After our first freeze since January 9th, temperatures are now climbing into the lower to middle 30s at most locations. Clouds will begin to push in during the evening hours and will prevent our lows from dropping too significantly, however with winds taking on a more northwest component, weak CAA will help them fall to near or slightly below freezing by Sunday morning. Temperatures will quickly rise above freezing prior to the onset of the precip, which will begin as liquid during the late morning hours.
The 00Z ECMWF model indicates that the 500mb ridge axis lies just offshore, consistent with where the edge of the denser high cloudiness is. With the ridge axis drifting inland today, but also amplifying over the forecast area as it does so, model consensus indicates a surge of high cloudiness moving through this morning, followed by a mostly sunny afternoon and evening. High temperatures today are expected to be a couple of degrees warmer than yesterday at most valley locations, and warming temperatures aloft mean that mountain areas will be several degrees warmer. This high cloudiness and a lesser pressure gradient means temperatures probably won't be quite as mild Sunday afternoon as they will be today.
Troughing amplifies over the eastern CONUS by tonight, with low level moisture gradually increasing in depth to around 1000-800 mb. Deeper moisture arrives Sunday just ahead of the main trough axis, beneath the exit region of a 120 knot upper level jet. Not expecting too much accumulation during the daylight hours on Sunday as snow will likely fall with temps just above freezing. We gradually lose deeper moisture after Midnight on Sunday as the trough axis swings through.
610 AM EST Sat Jan 28 2017 The region will be in between low pressure over southeastern Canada and high pressure over the Rockies this weekend with a couple of weak troughs or cold fronts moving through.
Metar plots shows that the winds have picked up to our west from a tightening pressure gradient between the high and low pressure. Otherwise, the forecast is on track with another frontal passage later today with a re-enforcing shot of cooler air. The upper trough of low pressure will continue to drift south taking the jet to also move South allowing cloud cover to decrease. The surface cold front will move across today and tonight re-enforcing the cold and dry air.
The 10 pm regional surface analysis showed a high pressure ridge nosing eastward along the Gulf Coast. Upper air data showed a positive-tilt, long wave trough from southeast Canada to the U. - Mexico border, a short wave trough diving quickly southward over the Upper Plains, as well as another over southeast Canada. These two short waves will essentially merge within the long wave trough late today, with the long wave trough gradually becoming more neutrally oriented.
Upper level trough axis continues to sink southward toward South Texas. Once the trough axis moves over the region and upper level jet weakens will quickly improve conditions this afternoon. Expect a quiet day on Sunday as high pressure builds into the region. Small craft advisory conditions continue this morning with gusty winds continuing until upper level trough gets through the region.
Back edge of the stratus eroding nicely as the low level thermal trof passes. after which will quickly diminish from west to east with passage of the low level thermal trof. most notably across the mountains this evening as a weak s/w trof passes thru. Accumulations in the near term will primarily be confined to the high terrain aside from some skiffs here or there in the Lowlands early this morning and once again tonight. Elsewhere 30s will be the rule with some 20s in the high terrain. Temps will drop back below freezing all places tonight. An upper level trough will move over the area Sunday and Sunday night.
and in fact have lowered high temps slightly to the lower to mid 50s. Stronger forcing will drop into the mean layer trough over the eastern U.
Since temps are expected to be above freezing in the Valley in both models during that time, the lower amounts of the NAM/SREF appear more realistic.
511 AM CST Sat Jan 28 2017 Strong ridging has built into the western half of the country setting up a predominately NW flow at all levels over the midwest and central plains. Multiple weak short waves will advect down the back side of the ridge Saturday afternoon and Sunday morning helping to create the potential for increased lift, cloud coverage, and possible flurries to light snow showers mixing into rain and snow in the afternoons. Little to no accumulations are expected over the area except for isolated areas in the NE portion of the CWA that may see a dusting Sunday morning before it warms above freezing.
718 AM EST Sat Jan 28 2017 A cold front will slowly approach from the northwest today through tonight and will gradually drop south through the region on Sunday.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTROL THE WEATHER OVER CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE WORK WEEK BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. AROUND MID WEEK AN UPPER LOW COULD MOVE EAST OUT OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND BRING SOME CHANCES FOR SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS BACK TO THE AREA. AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH THE PERIOD. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR WITH A DRY COLUMN AND SUBSIDENCE FROM THE HIGH. FOR AFTERNOON DEW POINTS USED A CONSENSUS OF MOS WHICH HAS BEEN DOING A BETTER JOB CAPTURING THE EFFECTS OF HIGH PRESSURE AND MIXING ON THE SURFACE DEW POINTS. BUT WITH MOST FORCING WELL OFF THE EAST WITH AN UPPER TROUGH FEEL THAT ODDS OF RAIN ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION.
LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE MOSTLY OUT OF THE EAST LATE THIS EVENING ACROSS THE LOWER MISS VALLEY AND THAT IS ALLOWING FOR THE EXPANSION OF MVFR CEILINGS WESTWARD THROUGH OUR REGION.
THE DEEP UPPER LOW JUST EAST OF LAS VEGAS THIS AFTERNOON WILL ONLY SHIFT SLOWLY TO THE EAST AND BE NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION SATURDAY NIGHT. FLOW ALOFT OVER THE EDWARDS PLATEAU WILL BE DIFLUENT BETWEEN THE JET ROUNDING THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW AND A SUBTROPICAL JET MOVING ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS.
931 PM CDT FRI APR 15 2016 East-southeast winds continue tonight in advance of upper low centered near Four Corners. IFR conditions will be likely, especially across northwest Arkansas given the lower ceiling heights expected. closed low.
MOISTURE AND CLOUD COVER WILL BE INCREASING OVERNIGHT AS SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST WINDS IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE HELP TRANSPORT MOISTURE-RICH AIR FROM SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND WESTERN LOUISIANA. THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING MOISTURE AND CLOUD COVER WILL YIELD WARMER EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S. SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA AS OF 21Z. THIS LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST INTO SOUTHERN COLORADO/NORTHERN NEW MEXICO THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S. INTO THE LOWER 40S. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL TONIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED. NICE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S. IT CONTINUES TO APPEAR THAT OUR ONGOING OMEGA BLOCKING FEATURE ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL GRADUALLY BREAK THROUGH THE EARLY WORK WEEK PERIOD. INSTEAD REPLACED BY A DEVELOPING REX BLOCK SIGNATURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS/ROCKIES AS PERSISTENT TROUGHING RESIDES BENEATH BUILDING RIDGING THROUGH THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE.
NEW ZONES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR TONIGHT A VERY SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL INFLUENCE THE REGION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
1035 PM EDT FRI APR 15 2016 DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE FROM THE NORTH BY MID WEEK. WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND GRADUALLY INCREASING MOISTURE MID TO LATE WEEK. THIS MAY PERMIT SLIGHTLY IMPROVED RADIATING CONDITIONS AND SOME PATCHY FROST DEVELOPMENT IN THE COOLER MOUNTAINS SPOTS AND IN SHELTERED MOUNTAIN VALLEY LOCATIONS. QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA AS A SPRAWLING MID/UPPER LEVEL BLOCKING PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THE NEAR TERM. ADDITIONAL DRY AIR WILL BE DRIVEN SOUTHWARD EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. ADJACENT BLUE RIDGE.
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION HAS SETUP MOIST NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS SOUTHWEST IDAHO. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL BE JUST WEST OF BURNS THROUGH SUNDAY WHICH WILL KEEP THE WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY CLOSER TO NORMAL TEMPERATURES UNDER COOLER NORTHEASTERLY FLOW.
WIND SURGE CONTINUES ALONG THE BREVARD AND VOLUSIA COAST WITH TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT AFFECTING THE AREA WITH HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC. )LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR TO JUST NORTH OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE SATURDAY MORNING WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE NUDGES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN U. BOTH GFS/ECMWF SHOW HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.
1040 PM EDT FRI APR 15 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
945 PM EDT FRI APR 15 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM SOUTHEASTERN CANADA TO THE MID- ATLANTIC STATES TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY, BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND INCREASINGLY WARM TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
AS THE LOW CLOUDS DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. MOISTURE AND CLOUD COVER WILL BE INCREASING OVERNIGHT AS SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST WINDS IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE HELP TRANSPORT MOISTURE-RICH AIR FROM SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND WESTERN LOUISIANA. THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING MOISTURE AND CLOUD COVER WILL YIELD WARMER EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S. SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA AS OF 21Z. THIS LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST INTO SOUTHERN COLORADO/NORTHERN NEW MEXICO THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
LATEST H5 ANALYSIS DEPICTS A LONGWAVE TROUGH LOCATED ROUGHLY ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONTIGUOUS UNITED STATES WITH A RIDGE SITUATED ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF. A WEAK UPPER LOW EMBEDDED WITHIN THE RIDGE AXIS IS CURRENTLY LOCATED DIRECTLY OVER THE LOCAL FA. THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MIGRATE EAST THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHEAST. THE DOMINANCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BE DEMONSTRATED BY A WARMING TREND THAT WILL BEGIN ON SATURDAY AS CLOUD COVER ERODES OVER MUCH OF THE REGION. SATURDAY HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S WILL WARM TO THE MID TO UPPER 70S ON SUNDAY. THE UPPER RIDGE BECOMES MORE CENTERED OVER THE REGION BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND WITH THE OMEGA BLOCK ALOFT KEEPING THE UPPER PATTERN STAGNANT.
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO EXERT ITS INFLUENCE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TONIGHT. BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO BE OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST BUT MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE SUFFICIENTLY COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ACTIVE CONVECTION/THUNDERSTORMS.
REX BLOCK REMAINED IN PLACE AT 500 MB OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE UNITED STATES WITH A TROUGH IN THE WEST. THERE WERE TWO MAIN PIECES OF ENERGY IN THE TROUGH TO THE WEST.
906 PM EDT FRI APR 15 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL GRADUALLY MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS AL INTO GA TONIGHT. REX BLOCK PATTERN OVER THE EASTERN STATES EVOLVES INTO AN OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN THROUGH SATURDAY AS A WEAKENING UPPER LOW TRANSITS EASTWARD ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST STATES AND INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER 70S.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE OFFSHORE THAT WILL RIDE OVER THIS BUILDING RIDGE AND INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. THUS EXPECT LOW TEMPS TO LARGELY REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS THE COLUMBIA BASIN, COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE, AND THE YAKIMA AND KITTITAS VALLEYS.
1142 PM CDT FRI APR 15 2016 CURRENT SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING IN OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES.
1145 PM CDT FRI APR 15 2016 FOR 06Z TAFS /ISSUED 913 PM CDT FRI APR 15 2016/ CENTER OF UPPER LOW NOW OVER ERN TN. WITH LOW LEVEL SE FLOW AND THE UPPER LOW ACROSS THE AREA. WITH A WEAK UPPER LOW OVER THE AREA AND A FAIRLY GOOD SE LOW LEVEL FLOW.
MVFR conditions will be likely, especially across northwest Arkansas given the lower ceiling heights expected. /ISSUED 931 PM CDT FRI APR 15 2016/ East-southeast winds continue tonight in advance of upper low centered near Four Corners. closed low.
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY.
1043 PM EDT FRI APR 15 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND PROVIDING FAIR WEATHER AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES. CAN/T RULE OUT SOME PATCHY FROST OVER THE LOWER SUSQ.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL PREVAIL OVER THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY. HOWEVER A WARM FRONT WILL BRUSH THE NORTH COAST FOR A THREAT OF RAIN LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW WILL RESULT IN WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MID-APRIL. CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROF OFFSHORE CONTINUED TO STREAM ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS PRECIP WAS ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THROUGH MON. THIS COMBINED WITH THE AXIS OF THE THERMAL TROF SHIFTING OFF THE COAST SATURDAY NIGHT WILL TRANSLATE TO DRY AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS.
THERE IS SOME LIGHTNING WITH THE SNOW OVER THE HIGH MOUNTAINS. WATER VAPOR PICTURES ARE SHOWING A CIRCULATION CENTER OF THE UPPER LOW OVER NORTH CENTRAL ARIZONA RIGHT NOW. THE UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN FILLING BUT ALSO LINGER OVER THE REGION. THE PRESENCE OF THE LOW WILL KEEP THINGS UNSETTLED. AS THE UPPER LOW HANGS AROUND.
/TONIGHT/ SYNOPTIC PATTERN CONTINUES TO FEATURE AN EVOLVING LARGE AND DEEP CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE ROCKIES.
THE UPPER LEVEL TROF CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST AND DRIER AIR IS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. A DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA IS SLOWLY MOVING EAST AND THE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH IT IS DIMINISHING. DEEP LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS SOUTH THROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WITH MAIN ENERGY DIVING SOUTH INTO THE 4-CORNERS REGION THIS AFTERNOON WHILE NORTHERN LOBE OF ENERGY SPINS OVER EASTERN MT. MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE NORTHERN CIRCULATION CONTINUES TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD PRECIP OVER MUCH OF NORTH-CENTRAL MT BUT INTENSITY HAS BEEN DECREASING AS THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW FILLS. DRY WEATHER PREVAILS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT MOVES INLAND ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW AND NORTHERN ROCKIES.
1147 PM EDT FRI APR 15 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
High clouds were making their way into eastern portions of Kansas today as the main upper trough digs south into the Southern Rockies. Southeast winds and increasing cloud tonight still anticipated to keep lows in the mid to upper 50s with thicker high cloud and likely some morning stratus keeping highs a bit cooler.
942 PM EDT FRI APR 15 2016 WEAK UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GULF COAST STATES STILL BRINGING SOME CLOUDS NORTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS BUILDING OVER THE NORTHEAST AND EAST COAST WITH VERY DRY AIR MASS OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
UPPER LOW MEANDERS OVER COLORADO. GRIDS HAVE SCATTERED POPS WITH SOME LIKELY POPS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
Clouds may limit highs somewhat over far southern MO, but overall we should see highs in the low to mid 70s. A blocking pattern over the CONUS will remain in place in one form or another for the next few days. An upper low will move south to the Four Corners region over the weekend then slow/become stationary. The upper low is then expected to shift slowly east with at least some scattered shower/tstm chances at times through at least Thu.
946 PM EDT FRI APR 15 2016 HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL RESULT IN CLEAR SKIES AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HAVE RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE.
1147 PM CDT FRI APR 15 2016 CONTINUE TO MONITOR COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST. UPPER LOW TO WOBBLE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS THROUGH SATURDAY. WITH BAROCLINIC ZONE TIGHTENING ON COLD SIDE OF TROUGH AND IMPULSES EJECTING NNE FROM UPPER LOW COULD SEE PROLONGED PERIOD OF PCPN MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF BOUNDARY.
809 PM EDT FRI APR 15 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND PROVIDING FAIR WEATHER AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES. CAN/T RULE OUT SOME PATCHY FROST OVER THE LOWER SUSQ.
IFR conditions will be likely, especially across northwest Arkansas given the lower ceiling heights expected. closed low.
UPPER TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR YESTERDAY'S SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THE RAIN TO OUR SOUTH TODAY CONTINUES TO GET ABSORBED INTO THE NORTHERN BRANCH. THIS PROCESS WILL PERSIST INTO SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WHEN A MUCH MORE DOMINANT UPPER RIDGE TAKES OVER. THIS RIDGE WILL ACTUALLY RETROGRADE A BIT ON SUNDAY AND BE THE DRIVING FORCE IN CLEAR SKIES AND THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES OF THE YEAR THUS FAR.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND RESULT IN A WARMING TREND.
18Z SFC DATA HAS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WITH LOWS IN NORTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY RAN BETWEEN THE TWO LOW PRESSURE AREAS. THEN TIMING AND AMOUNTS OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION WITH UPPER LOW.
811 PM PDT FRI APR 15 2016 Strong high pressure will build over the Pacific Northwest this weekend.
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SHUNT ENERGY NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE IT CLOSES OFF AND RIDGING PUSHES OVER THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHEAST. AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL SET UP OVER THE EASTERN CWA TONIGHT. WILL SEE THE PRECIPITATION COVERAGE INCREASE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH. THE PRECIPITATION WILL LINGER SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE TROUGH MOVES VERY LITTLE. THOUGH THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL NOT BE NEAR AS STRONG SUNDAY NIGHT. MODELS ARE IN DECENT CONSENSUS WITH THE LOCATION OF THE HIGHER PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. COOLER AIR MOVES IN EVERYWHERE ON SUNDAY. MUCH OF THIS PERIOD WILL BE MARKED BY THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CUT OFF FROM THE MAIN FLOW.
EXPECT RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA TONIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSES THE REGION.
921 PM EDT FRI APR 15 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED JUST TO THE NORTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THE LOW WILL BE TRACKING INTO THE VICINITY OF THE FOUR CORNERS TONIGHT KEEPING THE SNOW MACHINE ROLLING IN HIGH GEAR FOR OUR HIGH COUNTRY. SFC HEATING TODAY HELPING WITH CONVECTIVE ELEMENT TO THE STORM WITH AREAS OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OUT AHEAD OF THE LOW. AS THE LOW TRACKS INTO THE FOUR CORNERS. BOTH SOLUTIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY SNOW ACROSS OUR SAN JUANS WITH THE UPPER LOW BECOMING NEARLY STACKED. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS APPROACHING 2 FEET COULD OCCUR IN THE HIGH COUNTRY. INTENSITY RATES ALONE COULD OVERWHELM THE WARMER PAVEMENT RESULTING IN A BIGGER IMPACT ON TRAVEL AND GREATER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. BUT SPOTTY AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF THAT LIKELY WITH THE HIGHLY VARIABLE TERRAIN IN THAT REGION OF THE STATE.
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA PENINSULA ON SUNDAY.
1006 PM EDT FRI APR 15 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP SUNNY SKIES AND MILD AIR OVER NEW YORK AND PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
Updated at 925 PM EDT Fri Apr 15 2016 Isolated late afternoon showers have dissipated, leaving behind partly to mostly cloudy skies where mositure is pooled near the sfc trof. Updated at 620 PM EDT Fri Apr 15 2016 Weak east-to-west trof is draped across south central Kentucky, and the moisture pooling has been sufficient to develop quite a bit of cloud cover, and a few light rain showers. For this evening and overnight, a pleasant evening is in store as temperatures fall into the upper 60s to the lower 70s under mostly clear skies. For Saturday and Saturday night, mostly sunny days and mostly clear nights are expected as surface and upper level ridging build across the region.
THIS ACTIVITY HAS BEEN FORMING COURTESY OF CONVERGENCE ALONG A WEAK QUASI-STATIONARY SFC BOUNDARY AND AMPLE MOISTURE STILL NOTED WITHIN THE LOWEST 7000 FT (PER THE 00Z KLCH SOUNDING). HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST WILL MAINTAIN LIMITED RAIN CHANCES FOR SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL ADVANCE EAST OF THE AREA FOLLOWED BY AN EXPANSIVE LOW NOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AREA MOVING INTO THE PLAINS.
THE GUSTY WINDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
Updated at 925 PM EDT Fri Apr 15 2016 Isolated late afternoon showers over central Kentucky have dissipated, leaving behind partly to mostly cloudy skies where mositure is pooled near the sfc trof. Updated at 620 PM EDT Fri Apr 15 2016 Weak east-to-west trof is draped across south central Kentucky, and the moisture pooling has been sufficient to develop quite a bit of cloud cover, and a few light rain showers. For this evening and overnight, a pleasant evening is in store as temperatures fall into the upper 60s to the lower 70s under mostly clear skies. For Saturday and Saturday night, mostly sunny days and mostly clear nights are expected as surface and upper level ridging build across the region.
857 PM EDT FRI APR 15 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOW TEMPERATURES NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING WILL BE POSSIBLE. WHILE IN THE HIGHER SPOTS. AND MID-SLOPES OF THE RIDGES.