Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
812 PM MDT Fri Oct 29 2021 Cold frontal passage this evening has drastically brought a change in airmasses to the area. Have blended going forecast with HRRR and other Near-term models that are handling this cold front better. Today's "heat" will quickly be replaced by colder temperatures tonight and tomorrow as a cold front sweeps through the area. The cold front will move through the area this evening, with northwest winds expected area-wide by midnight tonight.
/issued 233 PM CDT Fri Oct 29 2021/ As the strong upper level low responsible for our recent cool down continues to track east across the SE CONUS, progressive low amplitude ridging will overspread our region from the west for the remainder of today and tomorrow. Though we'll wake to seasonably cool temperatures tomorrow morning, highs will warm into the low to mid 80s again for many spots, due to the aforementioned H50 rises, ample sunshine, and light southwesterly surface winds. Weak upper level ridging will be in the process of flattening on Saturday night as progressive upper troughing sweeps across southern Canada.
407 PM PDT Fri Oct 29 2021 Drier weather returns this weekend, with cooler temperatures and breezy northeasterly winds. Otherwise, clearing skies in the wake of the passing cold front will move in for most locations into Saturday, though there's the potential for some patchy fog over sheltered valley locations during the morning hours. With these clearing skies, many locations across our forecast area are anticipated to see freezing conditions Saturday morning as well.
956 PM CDT Fri Oct 29 2021 Overall, forecast remains on track with latest short range guidance still showing timing of cold front Saturday morning. Skies are clear over much of our CWA, while mild temperatures remain in place as a warm front has lifted northeast and east into the RRV. The cold front tonight should bring a period of windy conditions, and BUFKIT mixing heights/momentum transfer shows a few locations may see gusts Saturday morning approach 40 mph in our west (along and west of the escarpment) with better chances toward Sargent/Ransom counties. A cold front brings cloud cover to the area for Saturday, along with a slight chance for light showers across the northern Red River Valley.
814 PM EDT Fri Oct 29 2021 A deep layered area of low pressure will affect much of the Eastern United States into Saturday.
1002 PM EDT Fri Oct 29 2021 A low pressure system will move northeast away from the area through Saturday.
/28/ Through Saturday: The upper low that has brought persistent cyclonic flow accompanied by widespread stratus, occasional light rain and drizzle, and gusty northwest winds, will gradually lift out of our region as we go into the weekend. Before that happens, another lobe or two of ascent rotating around the upper low may bring additional light rain and drizzle through early evening into mainly northeast portions of the forecast area.
Lows will fall into the mid to upper 50s north, to the lower 60s inland to around 70 coastal central and south. High pressure will build into the waters later in the weekend, and remain through mid-week.
The RAP analysis on the SPC mesoanalysis indicates a continuous band of weak warm advection under an ridge east of the trough, and a better cold advection signal over western Nebraska. A much cooler day to day weather pattern can be expected though this period.
259 AM CDT Sat Oct 30 2021 Early this morning a mid level ridge extended from the southern Rockies across the Plains into Minnesota while a mid level trough was located over western Canada. An associated cold front extended from the low southwest into southeast Montana at 07Z. Clear skies allowing good radiational cooling with light to calm winds have seen a few locations cool to freezing at 07Z near the Nebraska border. Warm advection today on the back side of the high and ahead of the advancing frontal boundary will see temperatures warm to around 70 in central Kansas with 60s across the rest of northeast and east central Kansas.
with GLH on the edge of the lower cigs. and GTR closer to the low and IFR. The pesky upper low that has been responsible for our cloudy, drizzly, windy, raw days the last two days has finally pushed on off to the north and east. /28/ Prior discussion below: Through Saturday: The upper low that has brought persistent cyclonic flow accompanied by widespread stratus, occasional light rain and drizzle, and gusty northwest winds, will gradually lift out of our region as we go into the weekend. Before that happens, another lobe or two of ascent rotating around the upper low may bring additional light rain and drizzle through early evening into mainly northeast portions of the forecast area.
At the surface, an area of low pressure was situated over the Dakotas. A cold front is expected to drop out of the Dakotas and into the CWA this afternoon.
A cold front associated with that energy will cruise east over the forecast area tonight and Saturday morning. The highest corridor of winds should be over the Missouri valley in SC/SW SD.
Temperatures have plummeted down to the lower 50s this evening and will continue over night into the upper 40s to low 50s. An Upper low continues to bring drizzle across our eastern counties this evening and will continue overnight. Behind the exiting system high pressure will build in across the Mid-South. Expect the return of sunshine and warmer temperatures on Sunday.
Southern "low" of this upr trough moving into western NC with a west-northwest flow developing across north & central GA. Northern wave as part of this broad upr trough is currently near the KY/IN/OH border. Entire trough pushes east of the area later tonight into Sunday. Temps will be about 5-10F degrees warmer on Sunday as dry/stable conditions prevail.
Low pressure continues to spin over the Ohio Valley region this morning, bringing additional shower activity to eastern Illinois. Temperatures today will peak just below seasonal averages, as weak upper level ridging starts pushing into the Midwest.
310 AM CDT Sat Oct 30 2021 For today the two stories are the morning fog and the cold frontal passage. As the sun rises the fog will burn off and we will get our last warmer day with highs in the 50s before the cold front cools us down. For those hoping to catch the aurora Saturday night there will be an area of cloud cover moving across the region associated with the cold front that could obstruct your view. Sunday will be a much cooler day with highs in the 40s. A cold front will track through the area later today accompanied by an MVFR cloud deck but no precipitation.
Large low pressure system over the eastern CONUS will continue to slide away, allowing skies to clear over western AR as well and leading to sunny day across the region. With weak surface ridging sliding across the region, the winds will be light also. Leaned toward the slightly warmer CONSMOS numbers based on what temps did yesterday. Today will be the best weather day of this forecast, so get out and enjoy while it's here! The leading edge of cooler air will slide across the region on Sunday, knocking temps down across the north, but should still be nice with quite a bit of sun. Amplification of the flow pattern in the higher latitudes will allow colder air to spill south down the Plains, the leading edge of which comes thru Sunday as previously mentioned.
408 AM EDT Sat Oct 30 2021 Cool, cloudy weather will prevail through the weekend as a low pressure system lifts out of the Ohio Valley. GOES imagery show a large low pressure system centered across Ohio. This low is expected to gradually lift to the northeast and out of the Ohio Valley through the day. As for rain, a few scattered and light rain showers should move across the area as the low lifts northeast. By Sunday morning, the area will be placed in a northwest flow regime in wake of the late week low pressure system. With the upslope component in the flow, the higher elevations of the Allegheny Front will remain in drizzle and low stratus through the day.
1109 PM CDT Fri Oct 29 2021 Two concerns in the short term are the potential for dense fog tonight/Saturday morning and then the timing of a cold front Saturday afternoon and it's potential implications for afternoon temperatures out toward Alexandria and Morris.
Low temperatures will be chilly once again in the lower 40s. Most areas will settle into the lower 80s.
So don't worry, your Halloween decorations shouldn't blow away! Cooler conditions arrive for Halloween as a cold front moves through Sunday morning resulting in highs only in the upper 40s to low 50s.
Increasing thickness and warm downsloping winds will help to push temperatures into the low to mid 80s this afternoon, nearly 10 degrees above normal. Light winds, sunny skies and unseasonably warm temperatures will make for a wonderful Saturday to spend outdoors! Conditions will remain dry and despite the warmer temperatures this afternoon, Sunday morning will be chilly. A cold front looks to push through the area by mid- day Sunday, stalling out around the Trans Pecos. Models differ on timing and location of the front, but expect a strong temperature spread for Sunday afternoon with upper 60s to mid 70s for SE New Mexico and the Permian Basin, 80s along the Lower Trans Pecos, and 90s along the Rio Grande.
245 AM CDT Sat Oct 30 2021 Nearly vertically stacked SFC/upper level lows continue to be the main focus today, but these features will finally be exiting the mid- south early tonight.
245 AM CDT Sat Oct 30 2021 High pressure across the Central and Southern Plains this morning will move south and east away from the area today. Meanwhile, a cold front over the Northern Plains is progged to move rapidly south and east approaching the forecast area late in the day. High temperatures this afternoon will climb into the 60s and 70s ahead of the cold front with light southwest winds developing this afternoon. This front will sweep across the region tonight ushering in much cooler air across the area as we move into Sunday. High temperatures will struggle to climb out of the lower 50s for those in central Kansas. Normal highs for late October are in the the low to mid 60s.
Today Through Sunday Night A large upper low pressure system continues over the eastern U. with an upper ridge over the west. The upper ridge will build over Arkansas today and Sunday. High temperatures today will be in the lower 60s to lower 70s and lower 60s to mid 70s Sunday. Lows tonight will be in the low to mid 40s and upper 30s to mid 40s Sunday night.
After that, high pressure will expand into the area from the west, with dry weather the rule Saturday night through Sunday night. The chilliest air so far this young season will arrive during the week, courtesy of a 500 mb longwave trough over eastern North America.
There will be a slight chance of a light shower at BPK through the night as low pressure moves off to the east. Locations ahead of the bndry wl warm into the lower and mid 70s durg the aftn hrs.
/issued 233 PM CDT Fri Oct 29 2021/ As the strong upper level low responsible for our recent cool down continues to track east across the SE CONUS, progressive low amplitude ridging will overspread our region from the west for the remainder of today and tomorrow. Though we'll wake to seasonably cool temperatures tomorrow morning, highs will warm into the low to mid 80s again for many spots, due to the aforementioned H50 rises, ample sunshine, and light southwesterly surface winds. Weak upper level ridging will be in the process of flattening on Saturday night as progressive upper troughing sweeps across southern Canada. As this occurs, a cold front will push southward through the Central Plains and enter the CWA from the north early on Sunday morning.
SHORT TERM (Today through Sunday): The mid level ridge will flatten through the weekend, providing a generally zonal flow aloft by Sunday. At the surface, the center of the high pressure over the region will move overhead Deep South Texas today, providing a light onshore flow by this evening and a light to moderate southeasterly flow by Sunday as the high pressure continues to shift east. Tonight, with the rise in dew points, will be a few degrees warmer than last night and only dip down to near 60 for the Rio Grande Valley and the mid to upper 50s across the ranchlands. Continuing with this trend, Sunday will be a few degrees warmer, but the more noticeable difference will be in the relative humidities that will only drop to the 20s in the ranchlands to 40s near the coast.
205 AM EDT Sat Oct 30 2021 Scattered showers will be the main weather feature this weekend as low pressure slowly traverses the region. This will persist through the evening as coverage will become more isolated through the night with low pressure centered to the southwest. As well, moisture remaining in the low levels and spots of clearing are likely through the night. Tomorrow, with the days heating, and the upper low center remaining in the area, showers will become more scattered again across the area. Ensemble guidance showing high probability that broad troughing will set up across the eastern half of the US through much week.
The closed low responsible for the recent bout of clouds and rain has finally moved far enough east for some sun over eastern KS per 19z satellite imagery. At the surface, the gradient between the low pressure over the mid MS river valley and high pressure across the western plains remains strong enough for some gusty north winds this afternoon. The ideal radiational cooling setup is expected to allow frost to develop overnight as lows fall into the lower 30s. The latest guidance for temps suggests the potential for freezing temps may be a little farther southwest within the narrow ridge axis, especially for the low lying areas in the flint hills. A cold front is on track to move through the area Saturday night.
- Halloween (Sunday) will be dry with temperatures in the low to mid 50s in the afternoon, dropping into the mid to upper 40s by sunset. Discussion The clouds have cleared and surface ridging is moving east into the far western parts of the area. However, the heart of the ridge and stronger radiational cooling might not make it far enough east before sunrise for us to see widespread freezing and near freezing temperatures along/west of I-35. With that said, some isolated observations in IA near the MO/IA border are already reading 32 degrees, so at least patchy freezing and near freezing temperatures should be observed this morning posing a threat to some vegetation. A dry cold front will move through tonight starting the stretch of below normal temperatures.
The upper low will lift NE today and then into upper New England by late Sunday. Meanwhile, the next trough will be diving out of western Canada and an associated cold front will approach eastern KY from the NW by Sunday evening. The low level S/SW flow today will become W/NW on Sunday as the upper low pulls NE away from the area. We begin the extended Sunday with rising heights as the upper level low continues its journey northeast of our area into New England.
All but a few wrap around clouds have departed the region as expansive low pressure continues eastward.
The upper low will lift NE today and then into upper New England by late Sunday. Meanwhile, the next trough will be diving out of western Canada and an associated cold front will approach eastern KY from the NW by Sunday evening. The low level S/SW flow today will become W/NW on Sunday as the upper low pulls NE away from the area. A large trough will be positioned over central Canada into the northern Plains and upper Great Lakes.
Main item of discussion will be the wind shift associated with the prefrontal trough/front today. /Issued 626 PM CDT Fri Oct 29 2021/ For the 00Z TAFs, a weak cold front will move slowly across the forecast area on Saturday, with winds becoming north at less than 15 knots. /Issued 250 PM CDT Fri Oct 29 2021/ A weak cold front will slowly move through the Panhandles on Saturday. Therefore, highs on Saturday are expected to be warmer than today with readings in the mid 70's to the lower 80's.
446 AM EDT Sat Oct 30 2021 The cold front that moved across our area yesterday morning brought fall back to the Florida Keys. Water vapor imagery highlights the upper-level low associated with the cold front swirling over the Ohio River Valley. The location of this low has helped to tighten the pressure gradient across the Keys and surrounding coastal waters, and marine observation platforms are currently recording winds ranging from 20 to 25 knots. Forecast soundings show a hefty subsidence inversion setting up over the weekend, which may help confine the limited available moisture to the lower levels and allow some shallow shower development today and tonight. As the upper low retreats to the northeast overnight tonight, winds will quickly diminish tonight as will the cyclonic flow across the region.
351 AM CDT Sat Oct 30 2021 Well-advertised cold front extending from north central North Dakota to northwest South Dakota as of 08Z, followed by gusty northwest winds. HRRR forecast soundings show greater potential of this occurring in the higher elevations of Gregory County, and possibly eastward through the Missouri River Valley, though more uncertain for points farther east.
ongoing MVFR ceilings should remain common across far Northwest Arkansas into the morning hours Saturday before clearing with the exiting upper level low. /Issued 229 PM CDT Fri Oct 29 2021/ Strong upper low east of the area still moving slowly E-NE this afternoon, resulting in ample cyclonic flow and cloud cover across much of the area. The low will begin to lift more NE tonight, which will help accelerate clearing across the eastern zones, however, have opted for cloud cover through the overnight period in those zones. Saturday and Sunday will be very nice fall days with a little warmer temperatures for Saturday. Dry cold front to push into the area Sunday, which will knock back temperatures a few degrees behind the boundary.
Upper low continues to bring light rain across the area, and will continue overnight. Winds will take a more northerly direction today as the upper low continues off to the east.
1045 PM CDT Fri Oct 29 2021 Overall, forecast remains on track with latest short range guidance still showing timing of cold front Saturday morning. Skies are clear over much of our CWA, while mild temperatures remain in place as a warm front has lifted northeast and east into the RRV. The cold front tonight should bring a period of windy conditions, and BUFKIT mixing heights/momentum transfer shows a few locations may see gusts Saturday morning approach 40 mph in our west (along and west of the escarpment) with better chances toward Sargent/Ransom counties. A cold front brings cloud cover to the area for Saturday, along with a slight chance for light showers across the northern Red River Valley.
Broad area of low pressure will be north of the region Today. A trough of low pressure will pivot east across forecast area this morning, producing chance for a few early showers over NE FL. As the low moves further away to the northeast, high pressure will build from the northwest Tonight through Sunday. Lingering troughing to the south of area Tonight, could lead to a few showers across Marion county this evening, otherwise dry weather and clearing skies for Tonight through Sunday.
The main weather impact for today will be the passage of a cold front. Colder air arrives for Sunday as the broad upper trough dips southward out of Canada and into the central CONUS.
1002 PM PDT Fri Oct 29 2021 Drier weather returns this weekend, with cooler temperatures and breezy northeasterly winds. Otherwise, clearing skies in the wake of the passing cold front will move in for most locations into Saturday, though there's the potential for some patchy fog over sheltered valley locations during the morning hours. With these clearing skies, many locations across our forecast area are anticipated to see freezing conditions Saturday morning as well.
precipitation exits but clouds will continue to hold on as the sfc and upper level low work east-northeast over Lake Erie/Ontario by Sunday morning. Sunday Zonal flow behind the departing low pressure system will transport a moisture starved cold front over the Lower Ohio Valley.
With surface winds decreasing early Sunday morning, lows may bottom out in the lower 40s in a few spots, but this remains uncertain so keeping them in the middle to upper 40s.
An upper level low continues to spin across western North Carolina this evening and will continue to slowly move northeast through the day on Saturday. Highs on Saturday will climb into the low to mid 60s inland with upper 60s along the coast. Clear skies on Sunday with highs in the low 70s.
This provides some weak southerly flow, but the amount of moisture associated with this low varies widely. By Mon the low is affecting both the central Idaho mountains and the southern and eastern highlands with lightest areas in the north central part of the of the forecast zone. And again discounting the high QPF of the NAM.
High pressure settling south across the area in concert with clear skies and slackening winds will support good radiational cooling overnight into early Saturday morning. Cannot rule out patchy low-lying areas dipping just below freezing, but am not expecting a widespread freeze. Building thickness and modest southwesterly flow ahead of an approaching cold front will support one more day of warm temperatures. The cool down starts Saturday night-Sunday, as a cold front progresses south across Mid-America.
I've inserted this into the forecast given that microclimates across North and Central Texas are already on full display with a few of the typically cooler spots already in the upper 30s and low 40s. Otherwise, today (Saturday) will be spectacular for outdoor activities, albeit a little warmer than usual for late October. The warmest conditions are forecast to reside across the Big Country as southwesterly flow develops ahead of a deepening surface cyclone. Therefore, I still trended Saturday night's low temperatures toward the lower NBM percentiles.
417 AM EDT Sat Oct 30 2021 Showers will continue in the forecast today as low pressure tracks to Western Pennsylvania. Dry weather is forecast to return Sunday with high pressure dominating the weather. This slow moving low pressure will continue to result in clouds and periods of rain today. Weak surface trof/front to pivot thru the area Sunday afternoon. Temperatures close to normal with highs from the upper 50s to the lower 60s.
216 AM MDT Sat Oct 30 2021 08z surface analysis had cold front from central ND to KGCC, sinking southeastward. Feature driven by upper trough from central Canada into the northern Rockies per water vapour loop. Highs will be much cooler today with readings rising little behind cold front per low level cold air advection. Tonight/Sunday, upper trough saunters into the Midwest. Jet streak at base of trough increases to 110kts+ with right entrance region impinging on 800-600mb baroclinic zone in place from southern WY into NE.
The large upper trough will continue sliding east of the area today with drier air moving in behind it, although some low level cloud cover may linger across the northwest portions of the area through much of the day.
All-in-all it has been a cool, gray day with temps in the low 50s. high confidence A cold front will sweep through the area late Saturday night bringing windy conditions and much colder temperatures for Sunday.
The upper low finally begins to work northeast and moves out of the area by tonight. High pressure will briefly build in on Sunday and temperatures will warm up with the sunshine.