Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
THE SOUNDING WAS QUITE UNSTABLE IN THE LOWEST LEVELS AS A RESULT OF STRONG DIURNAL HEATING TODAY. /ISSUED 259 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015/ UPPER LOW PARKED OVER THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU OF TENNESSEE AND KENTUCKY AT MID AFTERNOON. AN IMPULSE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW WAS MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM THE CANADIAN MARITIME PROVINCES SOUTHWESTWARD INTO ARKANSAS AND TEXAS. DEW POINTS WERE IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S AWAY FROM MARINE INFLUENCES.
Ridging building into the Southern Plains will place our area right in the path of multiple impulses rounding this ridge, a pattern that looks to persist for several days. Some of these could produce severe wind and heavy rain, but pinpointing the exact details of these storms will be quite difficult due to the low predictability of these MCS patterns.
LOWS WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER. CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 61 82 62 85 / 20 30 20 20 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 60 80 62 83 / 30 40 30 30 OAK RIDGE, TN 60 81 61 84 / 20 40 20 40 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 58 79 59 81 / 40 50 30 60.
A LONG WAVE TROUGH EXTENDS SOUTHWARD FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY HIGHLIGHTS THE DIFFLUENT LEAF TO THE EAST SIDE OF THIS TROUGH'S AXIS. AN INVERTED LOW LEVEL TROUGH (SEE MIMIC VORTICITY ANALYSIS) EXTENDS NORTH FROM THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THERE IS WEAK RIDGING TO THE NORTHEAST AND A BROAD TROUGH TO THE SOUTHWEST.
SURFACE COLD FRONT SLOWING DOWN AND HANGING NEAR PIKE AND BARBOUR COUNTIES LATE THIS EVENING. THE PESKY UPPER LOW IS STILL CLOSE ENOUGH THAT A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE EAST TOMORROW. LOTS OF SUNSHINE TODAY HELPED TO DRY OUT THE LOWER LEVELS. AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS MIXED DOWN INTO THE LOWER/MID 60S.
1034 PM EDT TUE JUN 2 2015 AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.
1151 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015 NOT A LOT GOING ON WITH TAF FCST AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS LARGE AND IN CHARGE.
THIS WILL LIKELY BE THE THEME FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BE IN PLACE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.
SOUTHEAST OF THE TROUGH WILL SEE INCREASED HUMIDITY AND A SLIGHTLY INCREASED CHANCE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY.
TEMPS ARE CURRENTLY IN THE LOW 70S AND SHOULD BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S BY DAYBREAK. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE NORTH WL MAINTAIN DRIER AIR OVER THE REGION AND LIMIT CONVECTION AND FOG DEVELOPMENT. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS UPPER RIDGING IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW EDGES IN GRADUALLY FROM THE PLAINS. BUT CURRENT COOLER-THAN-NORMAL CONDITIONS WILL BE MODIFYING TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL (AT LEAST IN TERMS OF HIGH TEMPERATURES) BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. FOR THE END OF THIS WEEK INTO THIS WEEKEND MODEL CONSENSUS LOOKS SUBTLY WARMER WITH MOISTURE CREEPING BACK IN SLOWLY.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THE ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK. BUT THAT WILL LIKELY CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 48 TO 72 HOURS AS A DEEPENING TROF APPROACHES THE WRN CONUS FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA.
The 8 am EDT regional surface analysis showed a decaying, quasi- stationary front south of the FL Big Bend, a northward-propagating warm front across central GA and AL, and a weak, north-south oriented cold front over central AL which was translating slowly east. Vapor imagery and upper air data showed a broad long wave trough over the central CONUS, with an embedded short wave trough propagating through its base over OK. While there was (and will be) Q-G forcing well ahead of the aforementioned short wave trough over OK, the forcing was broad. With plenty of breaks in the clouds and a warm airmass in place, highs will be well above average in the lower to mid 80s.
1150 AM CDT WED OCT 28 2015 LOW PRESSURE IS NEAR TEXARKANA THIS MORNING WITH A COLD FRONT THAT IS NEAR THE OKLAHOMA BORDER.
WIND SPEEDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS OVER THE REGION. /ISSUED 341 AM CDT WED OCT 28 2015/ THE COLD FRONT HAS BLASTED THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH WELL SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE DAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE 10 TO 12 DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY WITH MID 60S ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS TO LOW 70S OVER THE SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS. A WEAK COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW CURRENTLY DROPPING OUT OF SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA AND INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL EDGE INTO THE CWA THURSDAY. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH PLAINS DOWNSTREAM OF TROUGHINESS ADVANCING THROUGH THE WESTERN STATES.
1040 AM EDT WED OCT 28 2015 BROAD SHORT WAVE TROF CENTERED ALONG THE MS RIVER VALLEY WILL NUDGE ITS WAY EAST AS ITS CENTRAL LOW BOMBS OUT OVER THE GREAT LAKES THIS AFTN. AS THE LOW DVLPS AND PULLS INTO HUDSON BAY OVERNIGHT. BLOCKED BY A STUBBORN RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. MORNING RAOBS REFLECT APPROACHING TROF WITH A NEARLY SATURATED H100-H70 LYR WITH A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ENTRENCHED IN THE H70-H50 LYR. NO PLANS TO UPGRADE ATTM AS WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH WITH THE APPROACHING FRONTAL TROF.
/issued 420 AM CDT WED OCT 28 2015/ A cold front is currently moving southward across the Permian Basin with gusty winds behind it. This front is a result of an upper trough over the Northern Plains/Upper Midwest. High temperatures today are expected to be about 10 degrees cooler than yesterday due to this frontal passage. An upper trough currently just off the northwest coast is expected to deepen and move southeastward over the Four Corners region by Thursday afternoon. Temperatures will be warmer on Thursday with highs mostly in the upper 70s and lower 80s.
859 AM EDT WED OCT 28 2015 AN UPDATE WILL BE OUT SHORTLY TO CANCEL THE HIGH WIND WARNING. WHICH SHOW DECREASING SHOWER COVERAGE THROUGH THE DAY AS THE 850-700 MB TROUGH MOVES THROUGH AROUND 18Z AND BRINGS DRIER AIR BEHIND IT.
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INLAND TODAY WITH RAIN CHANGING TO SHOWERS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN SHOWERS TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
1057 AM EDT WED OCT 28 2015 LOW PRESSURE NEAR SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN WILL CONTINUE TO PULL NORTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT.
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON. MAINLY DURING THE HIGHER HIGH TIDE THIS EVENING.
AND SIMILAR TO SLIGHTLY WARMER TOWARDS THE URBAN CORRIDOR. UPPER TROUGH TO THE EAST WITH STRONG TO MODERATE MID LEVEL QG DESCENT OVER COLORADO. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN NORTHWESTERLY THIS MORNING WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST OF COLORADO. THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE OVER COLORADO BY 00Z WITH THE FLOW ALOFT SHIFTING FM NWLY TO WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY TONIGHT. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL INCREASE AFTER 06Z AS THE NEXT TROUGH DROPS INTO THE GREAT BASIN. OVER THE NORTHEAST PLAINS A WEAK FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE CWA THIS EVENING BUT IT WILL REMAIN DRY IN THE LOWER LEVELS. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY THURSDAY.
711 AM EDT WED OCT 28 2015 PERIODS OF RAIN AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION. A BAND OF SHOWERS AND STRONG WINDS WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY A TRAILING COLD FRONT TONIGHT AS A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. WITH MUCH COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. IMPRESSIVE TROP UNDULATION WITH 220-250 METER HEIGHT FALL TRACK INTO CENTRAL LAKES WILL DRIVE THE TRAILING COLD FRONT THROUGH TONIGHT. CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL BE CENTERED OVER MICHIGAN TO START THIS PERIOD THURSDAY. NOT MUCH SYNOPTIC MOISTURE TO WORK SO ONLY POP MENTION CONFINED TO FAR NORTH WITH COMBINATION OF LAKE EFFECT AND SLIGHTLY DEEPER LIFT/CONVERGENCE CLOSER TO UPPER LOW.
1025 AM EDT WED OCT 28 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL UNDERGO RAPID STRENGTHENING TODAY AS IT TRACKS NORTH THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS SYSTEM WILL PULL A STRONG COLD FRONT EAST ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY AS IT CONTINUES NORTH INTO CANADA.
THIS WILL RESULT IN 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW OVERNIGHT ON THE HIGHER PEAKS. WILL REMAIN CLOUDY THROUGH THE PERIOD AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS INTO THE REGION. MOST OF THE SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL COME AS THE TROUGH BEGINS TO EXIT THE REGION THURSDAY AS SE OREGON BEGINS TO DRY OUT AND CLEAR. WINDS WILL PICK UP IN THE MAGIC VALLEY THURSDAY AS THE TROUGH EXITS SW IDAHO. RIDGING ALOFT AND DRYING THURSDAY NIGHT.
THE WEAK PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AXIS THAT PRODUCED LIGHT RAINFALL SO FAR THIS MORNING HAS PUSHED INTO NORTHEASTERN ALABAMA AT THIS TIME. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE AS THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AXIS CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PUSH EAST. THE MAIN COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION IS MUCH FURTHER WEST AND EXTENDS FROM WISCONSIN SOUTH INTO ILLINOIS AND NE TEXAS. INITIAL COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY PUSHING EWD AND AWAY FROM THE TWO TERMINALS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH/BACK TO THE SSW BY LATE AFTN AS A SECONDARY COLD FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH FROM THE NW.
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD EARLY THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT EAST. MAKING WAY FOR AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL RETURN FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
/ISSUED 735 AM EDT WED OCT 28 2015/ SHORT WAVE AND COLD FRONT STILL POISED TO SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. 20 REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH OF THE CWFA THURSDAY NIGHT.
/ISSUED 614 AM CDT WED OCT 28 2015/ AT 6 AM THE COLD FRONT WAS NEAR KSJT AND WAS CONTINUING TO PUSH SOUTH. SPEEDS SHOULD DIE DOWN A BIT AROUND 22Z AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. SHALLOW TROUGH COVERING MOST OF THE COUNTRY WITH THE TROUGH AXIS THROUGH EAST TEXAS. A COLD FRONT WAS MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE TO THE EAST AND THE PATTERN WILL BECOME ZONAL DURING THIS PERIOD. AT THE SAME TIME ANOTHER TROUGH WILL DIG DOWN ALONG THE WEST COAST. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR CWA DURING THE DAY TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST AND WINDS WILL TURN AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY CLEARLY DEPICTS A TROUGH APPROACHING THE WEST COAST. THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SPLIT ALONG THE COAST AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE RIDGE LATER TODAY. CURRENT MODEL TRENDS INDICATE SUFFICIENT FORCING AHEAD OF THE FIRST TROUGH TO INCREASE THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION RIGHT AROUND 00Z THIS EVENING.
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS SITTING OVER THE REGION BUT A LOW PRESSURE TROF IS MOVING OVER THE WEST COAST. MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL INCREASE OVER NIGHT AS THIS TROF MOVES EAST.
1242 PM EDT WED OCT 28 2015 A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TODAY.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SWD ACROSS KGUY AND KDHT LATE TONIGHT. /ISSUED 422 AM CDT WED OCT 28 2015/ WINDS HAVE TAPERED OFF TO AROUND 15 MPH ACROSS THE PANHANDLES BEHIND LAST NIGHT'S COLD FRONT. LEE SIDE TROUGH WILL AGAIN STRENGTHEN TODAY AND AS WINDS SHIFT SOUTHERLY AGAIN. A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL FORCE ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR ACROSS THE PLAINS AND INTO THE PANHANDLES LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. HOWEVER AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG ENOUGH WINDS TO PRECLUDE FROST FORMATION THURSDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE A HARDER TIME RECOVERING ON THURSDAY AS SURFACE FLOW SHIFTS SOUTHEASTERLY AND WILL ENHANCE CLOUD DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
618 AM CDT WED OCT 28 2015 LATEST SURFACE AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS DEPICTS A GUSTY COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR MANITOBA THROUGH EASTERN NEBRASKA AND INTO ANOTHER LOW OVER CENTRAL KANSAS. MEANWHILE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. CLOUD COVER COULD SKIM OUR NORTHERN-MOST COUNTIES AS THE LOW PROGRESSES EASTWARD. OPTED TO ISSUE A FREEZE WATCH FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA WHERE GROWERS REMAIN SUSCEPTIBLE TO FREEZING TEMPS. DRY CONDITIONS AND NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY AHEAD OF A WEAK RIDGE MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL US. TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN STRUGGLE TO BREAK INTO THE LOW 50S.
WEAK COLD FRONT SHOULD COME THROUGH TAF SITES FROM N TO S THIS AFTERNOON AND EVE. EXPECT WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY (SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS HELPING TO BOOST AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID 80S) AHEAD OF A DRY COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON.
1000 AM MDT WED OCT 28 2015 UPPER LOW IS OVER ND. TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LOW ALONG THE CNDN/WRN ND BORDER DROPPING S/SE. UPPER RIDGING IS BUILDING ALONG THE NRN ROCKIES. COLDER AIRMASS WILL KEEP TEMPS COOLER THAN AVG. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND THE LOW WILL RESULT IN WINDY CONDITIONS TODAY ACROSS WRN SD. RIDGING WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION THU WITH CONTINUED DRY WEATHER.
AS DRIER MID LEVEL AIR GRADUALLY BEGINS TO MIX DOWN TOWARD THE LOWER LEVELS. AS THE LARGER UPPER TROUGH PATTERN CONTINUES TO TRANSLATE EWD ACROSS MUCH OF THE ERN CONUS. AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA. THE ONE FEATURE THE MODELS SEEM TO BE FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH IS A REINFORCING COLD FRONT SWEEPING EWD THROUGH THE MID SOUTH/CNTRL TN VALLEY REGIONS LATE THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE REINFORCING COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY THU. AND THEN QUICKLY TRANSLATING EWD INTO THE LOWER MS/TN VALLEY REGIONS IN THE LATE SAT/SUN TIME FRAME. INITIAL COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY PUSHING EWD AND AWAY FROM THE TWO TERMINALS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH/BACK TO THE SSW BY LATE AFTN AS A SECONDARY COLD FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH FROM THE NW.
735 AM EDT WED OCT 28 2015 SHORT WAVE AND COLD FRONT STILL POISED TO SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. 20 REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH OF THE CWFA THURSDAY NIGHT.
614 AM CDT WED OCT 28 2015 AT 6 AM THE COLD FRONT WAS NEAR KSJT AND WAS CONTINUING TO PUSH SOUTH. SPEEDS SHOULD DIE DOWN A BIT AROUND 22Z AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. SHALLOW TROUGH COVERING MOST OF THE COUNTRY WITH THE TROUGH AXIS THROUGH EAST TEXAS. A COLD FRONT WAS MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE TO THE EAST AND THE PATTERN WILL BECOME ZONAL DURING THIS PERIOD. AT THE SAME TIME ANOTHER TROUGH WILL DIG DOWN ALONG THE WEST COAST. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR CWA DURING THE DAY TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST AND WINDS WILL TURN AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
644 AM CDT WED OCT 28 2015 HAND ANALYSIS OF THE 07Z MSL DATA SHOWED VERY COLD TEMPERATURES OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALBERTA POISED TO PLUNGE INTO THE HIGH PLAINS TODAY. STRENGTHENING OF THE CYCLONE AS IT MAKES ITS WAY NORTHWARD INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL STRENGTHEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF NEBRASKA. HIGH PRESSURE OVER HEAD EARLY THURSDAY. EXPECTING RECYCLED COLD AIR AROUND THE HIGH TO KEEP TEMPS ON THE COOL SIDE.
614 AM CDT WED OCT 28 2015 /12Z TAFS/ Strong gusty north to northwest winds of 15 to 25kts will be the main weather impact through 17Z/1PM along and immediately behind a fast moving cold front. /ISSUED 454 AM CDT WED OCT 28 2015/ (Today and Tonight) A cold front will move rapidly into West Central Texas this morning, shifting the winds to the north at 15 to 25 mph with gusts to near 35 mph especially across the Big Country. Temperatures will be cooler today behind the cold front with highs ranging from the lower 70s north of I20 to the mid to upper 70s south.
621 AM CDT WED OCT 28 2015 HAND ANALYSIS OF THE 07Z MSL DATA SHOWED VERY COLD TEMPERATURES OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALBERTA POISED TO PLUNGE INTO THE HIGH PLAINS TODAY. STRENGTHENING OF THE CYCLONE AS IT MAKES ITS WAY NORTHWARD INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL STRENGTHEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF NEBRASKA. HIGH PRESSURE OVER HEAD EARLY THURSDAY. EXPECTING RECYCLED COLD AIR AROUND THE HIGH TO KEEP TEMPS ON THE COOL SIDE.
COOLER TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT OVERNIGHT WITH MOIST AIR STILL NEAR THE SURFACE WILL PROMOTE PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO EARLY THU MORNING. PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT A POSSIBILITY LATE TONIGHT AS COOLER AIR MOVES IN ACROSS THE MOIST GROUND WITH LIGHT WINDS FORECAST. BREEZY WINDS WILL CAUSE DISPERSION VALUES TO BE ON THE HIGH SIDE THIS AFTERNOON.
1135 AM CDT WED OCT 28 2015 The RAP model indicates a warm nose at around 850 mb should prevent updrafts from reaching the freezing level today, thus tstms were removed from the forecast for today/tonight. The 00Z guidance is in reasonable agreement in pivoting a mid/upper-level trough northeast through the region through 18Z today, and effectively pushing the tangible rain/TS northeast and east of our region mostly by 12Z. As this trough reaches Wisconsin it will carve out a very intense and compact upper low. Energy rotating around the low may touch off a few showers or even thunderstorms very late this afternoon or this evening over the Evansville Tri State and the Pennyrile region of west Kentucky.
1248 PM EDT WED OCT 28 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL UNDERGO RAPID STRENGTHENING TODAY AS IT TRACKS NORTH THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS SYSTEM WILL PULL A STRONG COLD FRONT EAST ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY AS IT CONTINUES NORTH INTO CANADA.
1001 AM CDT WED OCT 28 2015 THE COLD FRONT WAS MOVING THROUGH THE HILL COUNTRY AT 7 AM AND WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA LATER TODAY. WEAK COLD FRONT SHOULD COME THROUGH TAF SITES FROM N TO S THIS AFTERNOON AND EVE. EXPECT WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY (SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS HELPING TO BOOST AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID 80S) AHEAD OF A DRY COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON.
PRE FRONTAL/TROF STILL GENERATING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS NE FL/SE GA AND THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY AS THE FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION.
The 00Z guidance is in reasonable agreement in pivoting a mid/upper-level trough northeast through the region through 18Z today, and effectively pushing the tangible rain/TS northeast and east of our region mostly by 12Z. As this trough reaches Wisconsin it will carve out a very intense and compact upper low. Energy rotating around the low may touch off a few showers or even thunderstorms very late this afternoon or this evening over the Evansville Tri State and the Pennyrile region of west Kentucky.
THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS STORM WILL PUSH THROUGH ON THURSDAY MORNING. WITH FOG SHROUDING THE RIDGES. PEAK GUSTS AT OBSERVATION SITES ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE SW /WHERE A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 15Z/ HAVE STAYED BELOW 35 KTS. LCLS WILL BE VERY LOW AND THE WARM FRONT/TRIPLE-POINT NEARING GIVE RISE TO CONCERN FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO. THE LOWS WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL MAXES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
MOSTLY SUNNY START TO THE DAY WITH TEMPS RUNNING JUST A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. DRY WEATHER WITH COOLER TEMPS FOR THE WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE MOVES WELL TO THE EAST. UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER ARIZONA EXTENDS INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR AN EARLIER SEABREEZE BRINGING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE COAST. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL BRING ABOUT 5-7 DEGREES OF COOLING TO MOST AREAS SATURDAY.
THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL SHIFT STARTING TODAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
EXPECT A MILD NIGHT WITH A FEW THIN HIGH CLOUDS HELPING KEEP MINIMUMS NEAR 60 DEGREES FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. RIDGE BREAKS DOWN OVERNIGHT BUT A WARMER START ON SATURDAY WILL SUPPORT ANOTHER JUMP TOWARDS 90 DEGREES OR BETTER IN A NUMBER OF PLACES. SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH NORTHERN MONTANA DURING THE DAY WITH COMPRESSIONAL WARMING COMPENSATING FOR LOWER HEIGHTS TO KEEP TEMPERATURES 20 TO 25 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
241 PM EDT FRI SEP 25 2015 APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE WILL INCREASE CLOUDS AND RAIN CHANCES FOR THE WEEKEND. UPPER-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SERN CONUS WILL CONT TO SHUNT MOISTURE OVER THE UPPER OHIO REGION INTO THE WEEKEND. THEN MID LEVEL CLOUD INCREASE OUTSIDE OF THE RIDGES. THE MOISTURE FLOW IS PROJECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE LOW DIGS WEAK TOWARD THE MID OHIO VALLEY. BUT STABILITY AND DOWNSLOPE FLOW TO THE WEST OF THE RIDGES ARE PROGGED TO SUPPORT A GENERAL LIGHT RAIN.
/ISSUED 336 PM EDT FRI SEP 25 2015/ CURRENT RADAR LOOP SHOWS SHOWERS AND SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ROTATING AROUND LOW PRESSURE CENTERED JUST NORTH OF THE AL/TN/GA BORDER. THIS LOW CENTER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING NORTHWARD AS IT WEAKENS THROUGH SAT. AS THIS LOW MOVES N IT WILL PULL THE DEEPER MOISTURE NORTHWARD WITH IT ALSO. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THE UPPER LOW DRIFTING SLOWLY NEWD WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT OFF THE ATLANTIC OVERRUNNING A LINGERING WEAK WEDGE.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS A MOISTURE-STARVED COLD FRONT ADVANCES SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
426 PM MDT FRI SEP 25 2015 UPPER LOW OVER THE NE/KS BORDER AREA EXPECTED TO DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTH OVERNIGHT. SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND THIS EVENING MAY SLIP BACK WESTWARD OVERNIGHT AND ALLOW FOR FOG TO REFORM YET AGAIN OVER THE LOWER AREAS OF THE PANHANDLE LATER TONIGHT BEFORE DISSIPATING SATURDAY MORNING.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER AND WARM DAYS WITH COOLER NIGHTS AND MORNINGS.
Some of the models actually have amounts approaching 1" across Stafford to Barber counties, but did not want to go this high. Wind trajectories are more conducive to fog (from the northeast/upslope) and lower temp/dewpoint depressions are possible as moisture advection occurs on the backside/north side of the departing synoptic trough. Mid level high pressure will continue across the Desert Southwest with the ridge extending out across the central Rockies. At the low levels, a warm air advection pattern with persistent lee troughing is expected across western Kansas. The ECMWF has backed off on a more appreciable chance for cooler weather for the first week of October. As an upper low and associated cold pool retrogrades into southwestern Kansas today, cigs will gradually lower into tonight, along with a few scattered showers.
254 PM EDT FRI SEP 25 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND CREST OVER THE AREA ON SATURDAY.
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER NORTHWEST AND WEST-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA WILL STALL AS UPPER LOW PROGRESSES OVER REGION FROM KANSAS. THE WEATHER WILL BE DOMINATED BY THE LONG- RESIDENT UPPER RIDGE TO THE WEST OF OKLAHOMA AND A WEAK MEANDERING UPPER LOW THAT WILL DRIFT SOUTH FROM NORTHERN KS THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE HUMID BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE JOINED BY MID-LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATE WITH THIS LOW AS IT DRIFTS SLOWLY SOUTH/SOUTHWEST INTO OKLAHOMA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. BEYOND THAT, THE FLOW WILL REMAIN WEEK WITH A BROAD AND WEAK UPPER LOW TO THE EAST AND THE PERSISTENT RIDGE TO THE WEST.
THE RECENT DRY TREND WILL BEGIN GIVE WAY FINALLY TO DAILY CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE NEXT WORK WEEK AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSHES INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHEAST. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL ROTATE NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD CENTRAL INDIANA. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S NORTHWEST TO THE LOW 60S SOUTHEAST. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHEAST AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES ITS PUSH NORTHWESTARD EARLY SATURDAY.
A weak cold front moving through the area will allow more consistent north and northeast winds to develop for this afternoon and evening, although at 10 knots or less. While there is quite a bit of mid and upper level cloud cover out there early this morning, these clouds should clear from northwest to southeast beginning late this morning through the afternoon hours, and could result in highs being a few degrees warmer today.
316 PM MDT FRI SEP 25 2015 UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MASS FILTERS INTO THE EASTERN PLAINS WITH LOW LEVEL E-SE WINDS NUDGING UP DEWPOINTS SLIGHTLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. BLENDED GUIDANCE AND MOS POINT TO SLIGHTLY COOLER MAX TEMPS SAT AFTERNOON.