Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
151 AM EDT SUN AUG 14 2016 A cold front across NW Indiana will move slowly across the forecast area overnight and stall south of the forecast area Sunday.
/issued 222 PM CDT SAT AUG 13 2016/ A diffuse cold front is into the Trans Pecos while the primary mid/upper level theta-e ridge axis has shifted s of I-20.
Weather pattern will be dominated by high pressure aloft for dry conditions in most areas (including the valleys). There will be enough moisture combined with daytime heating for isolated showers and thunderstorms (with gusty winds) over the higher terrain this afternoon and evening, mainly in the West Central Mountains.
Southerly low level flow of ~ 35 knots on the east side of the low is transporting very moist air (Precipitable Water near 2.
Valley fog threat increases tonight as high pressure results in light winds from the surface up to near 10 kft.
417 AM EDT SUN AUG 14 2016 Cold front located from near Buffalo to southern Illinois early this morning.
248 AM CDT SUN AUG 14 2016 A broad upper level trough extended from western Ontario, Canada, south-southwest across the upper MS river valley into northern MO. A weak upper low across southwest LA will shear out as it tracks northeast into southern MO with heavy rainfall possible from the TX coast, northeast into south central MO. Surface dewpoints should remain in the lower to mid 60s during the afternoon hours, thus the afternoon heat indicies will be near the the ambient temperatures. Overnight lows will drop into the lower to mid 60s.
326 AM CDT SUN AUG 14 2016 Showers and thunderstorms over eastern Lincoln and Frontier counties slowly dissipating early this morning as 500mb trough moves east of the forecast area.
This will allow for plenty of sunshine and near or slightly warmer than normal temperatures.
417 AM CDT SUN AUG 14 2016 High pressure will slowly move east through the day, allowing winds to return from the southeast this afternoon. CAM reflectively forecasts show most convection over the southwest CWA, although did increase POPs in the high chance category across much of the CWA overnight.
345 AM MDT SUN AUG 14 2016 Dry northwest flow will continue across the region for one more day as high pressure remains centered over the Southwest. High pressure to the west begins to break down Monday as an area of low pressure aloft moves over Reno, NV late in the afternoon. The Desert SW ridge gets shifted east to near the Four Corners early this week as a weakening trough moves into the northern Great Basin.
SHORT TERM (Today through Monday):Deep south Texas is between two mid-level ridges with an upper trough across northern Texas.
Mainly clear skies with any patchy fog in the low-lying rural locations, and denser fog in the Wisconsin River Valley, dissipating within a few hours after sunrise. Some of the models are developing isolated to scattered showers as a mid level short wave trough crosses the area this morning and early afternoon, but lack of moisture and lift will limit potential so will trend with the single digit PoPs on the MOS guidance and keep precip mention out of the forecast. Lows in the lower to mid 60s expected with patchy to areas of fog developing with mainly clear skies and light winds. Some of the precip with this low could clip the southeast Monday evening/overnight, so kept some small pops there. Temps will be near normal, a couple degrees cooler than elsewhere in the east/southeast due to more clouds and onshore winds.
behind the first boundary in the upper 50s to lower 60s and behind the second boundary in the lower to mid 50s. Overall should be a nice day with highs in the upper 70s in the north and in the lower to mid 80s across the south half of the forecast areas.
Warm and muggy overnight tonight followed by Excessive heat conditions again in the lower to middle Susquehanna Valley again on Sunday. General pattern continues with the upper level ridge off the Southeast Coast and a trough over the Upper MS Valley. Excessive heat warning for the Lower Susq Valley to Harrisburg continues with a Heat Advisory for counties surrounding that up to Williamsburg and west out to Franklin County. Storms will be more isolated Monday with weak ridging over the area.
The difficult thing for tonight is whether or not we will see a return of the low level stratus like we have the past few nights. The western Atlantic subtropical ridge will expand wwd across our region tomorrow and should lead to a sharp gradient in aftn shra activity, with highest probs at MSL.
329 AM CDT SUN AUG 14 2016 The cold front that slowly moved through the remainder of central and southeast Illinois yesterday has stalled across extreme southern Illinois. Additional northward adjustments are possible if model trends continue Clouds and precipitation today will keep temperatures cooler than normal once again, especially across southeast Illinois. Temperatures are at least temporarily cooler behind the boundary, with temperatures dropping into the upper 70s on Monday. But summer temps are not over yet as the ridge breaks down somewhat over the west.
Drier air will filter in behind the cold front with partly sunny skies developing for the latter half of Sunday and more seasonable max temperatures in the low to mid 80s.
A cold front will bring isolated showers and thunderstorms vcnty and north of a KCOD-KCPR line 23z Sun-08z Monday. The cold front and accompanying wind shift from the north will push south to vcnty KCPR-KRIW line by 03z Monday.
329 AM CDT SUN AUG 14 2016 The Northland was between an area of low pressure over northwest Ontario and a ridge of high pressure over the eastern Northern Plains early this morning. Lows will drop into the lower to mid fifties, with some pockets in the upper forties. Increasing warm air advection and an upper level trough will bring a chance for showers and a few thunderstorms to portions of northern Minnesota on Monday. Seasonably warm weather is expected for most of this week with more opportunities for showers and storms, but cooler weather will settle into the region late this week.
8 and 2 inches, will continue to overspread the region as a mid level inverted trough moves across the peninsula and into the eastern Gulf by afternoon. With more sunshine to start the day temperatures will climb into the lower to mid 90s.
Hind-sight may be 20/20 with respect to the some of the model depiction of the retrograding mean trough axis in the northern U.
WV imagery indicates weak upper level ridging settled across the Great Basin. Near the surface, a broad area of high pressure is drifting eastward across the Central Plains. A broad weak upper level trough persists from the central Canadian prairies into eastern Texas. This was between two areas of upper level ridging over the western and eastern ends of North America. Across the central High Plains, weak low pressure at the surface was located over northeast Colorado. Dry conditions are expected to continue through much of the upcoming week as upper level ridging continues from the central Rockies into the central High Plains.
As a result, we may see a westward-expansion of the low cloud deck towards the Metroplex this morning, and can't even rule out a few elevated showers sprouting--similar to what happened yesterday morning. Sided with the warmer-end of guidance for today.
203 AM PDT SUN AUG 14 2016 High pressure will remain in control through the middle of the week, keeping conditions dry with temperatures well above average. Temperatures will lower slightly by the end of the week as the high pressure area weakens. Upper-level ridge of high pressure will continue to build over the western United States today. The ridge will allow for afternoon high temperatures to exceed 100 degrees through at least the middle of the week across the San Joaquin Valley and Kern County Desert.
This was occuring generally just south of the 700mb trough stretched out from St. Temperatures have climbed into the upper 70s to low 80s and are expected to top out in the low 80s under cloud cover to the middle 80s where the sun shines today. The track of the low will ultimately determine how far to the northwest the rain bands make it. Where the rain does fall, temperatures will likely only climb into the lower to middle 70s for Sunday and again Monday.
Drier conditions are expected again today as upper level ridging continues to build slowly east across the Four Corners Region and into the Western High Plains. High temperatures will be up around 90F again this afternoon with little change expected to the general air mass across the high plains.
Early morning water vapor and surface analysis depicts large scale ridging across the southeast CONUS. Broad southeast 1000-500MB flow was draped on the southside of the ridge which extends into southern AL/MS. Of note on water vapor imagery is an inverted mid level trough extending from the tip of the Yucatan peninsula northeast to the southern tip of Florida. PWATs will remain on the low side with ample drying in the 850 to 300MB layer. However, the inverted trough and mid level moisture arrives beginning late morning. Highs will reach the lower to perhaps mid 90s today.
446 AM CDT Sun Aug 14 2016 Upper low is in the process of stretching/shearing across Arkansas, La & east Texas. Given the high moisture levels persisting, suspect the threat of localized heavy rain totals might remain an issue ufn. 41 A messy forecast will continue for the TAFS today (and possibly into the first half of the upcoming week) as the upper low lingers across the region.
Upper level flow becomes more west-northwest over the Northern Plains with some embedded short wave troughs that will begin to impact our area later today.
312 AM CDT SUN AUG 14 2016 A very nice day in store for Sunday as cooler and drier air continues to work south through West Texas.
318 AM CDT SUN AUG 14 2016 High pressure in control.
Its a little cooler tonight across the Midsouth than we have been for the last several nights. Temperatures are in the low to middle 70s. we are still expecting slightly cooler than normal temperatures today through the upcoming work week. Expect highs in the middle to upper 80s and lows in the low to middle 70s.
There could be a few showers not to far off from the northern/eastern border of the forecast area on the periphery of the ridge, but lack of low-level moisture and forcing should equate to cumulus cloud development at best. Meanwhile, southerly return flow will be developing over the west, and nocturnal showers and thunderstorms that developed over the Dakotas on the nose of the next trough should be knocking on the western doorstep at daybreak Monday.
312 AM CDT SUN AUG 14 2016 A weak ridge of high pressure will continue to expand eastward over the Panhandles through much of the week. Later this week, an upper trough will deepen over the rockies and allow some short wave disturbances to move into the region. This, along with another cold front look to knock back weekend temperatures into the 80s once again. Model solutions differ for this time frame as the ECMWF pushes a cold front through the area very quickly.
Current water vapor imagery and latest 00z progs all have a good handle on the positioning of the upper low which has plagued much of the state over the last several days. the low has made slow but steady progress over the last 24 hours from SE LA but as had been the case the last several nights. the convection has not congealed closer to the center of the upper low this morning.
350 AM CDT SUN AUG 14 2016 (Today and Tonight) A cold front has stalled across the Texas Hill Country.
658 AM EDT SUN AUG 14 2016 Aviation An area of high pressure over the central plains will weaken as it tracks east into Michigan today and tonight.
638 AM EDT SUN AUG 14 2016 Cold front located from near Buffalo to southern Illinois early this morning.
High pressure will be the dominant weather feature over western Montana and central Idaho through mid week.
143 AM EDT SUN AUG 14 2016 Bermuda high pressure will be in control of our weather through mid week. Region to remain under the influence of the Bermuda High with plenty of moisture in the low levels. however with the low level moisture expect high humidity values and heat index readings approaching 105 Sunday and a degree or two lower Monday. Temperatures will be in the mid 90s each day with overnight lows in the low to mid 70s.
155 AM EDT SUN AUG 14 2016 Scattered showers are expected mainly over northwest Ohio and northeast Indiana tonight as a cold front moves through the area. Lows tonight will be in middle to upper 60s with highs Sunday in the lower to middle 80s.
High pressure remains anchored just NE of the region at the surface and aloft and will continue to provide a SSE steering flow across NE FL/SE GA. This feature has slightly more moisture with PWATS bouncing back close to 2 inches and some mid level cooler 500MB temps of -8/-9C which will continue to help trigger scattered storms over inland areas as the ATLC/East Coast Sea Breeze moves inland. Max temps expected to remain above normal in the lower/middle 90s inland with warmest temps across SE GA where convection starts later and near 90 degrees along the coast. Drier air aloft will move in on Monday as a mid level ridge over the Atlantic extends into our area.
429 AM EDT SUN AUG 14 2016 Still sandwiched in between stationary upper low over LA and Bermuda high.
Stationary front extending SW from the Ohio Valley into the lower Mississippi Valley will remain in place through Sunday. As area sits under the influence of ridge, expect little change in fcst conditions.
Temperatures across the region are generally running a bit warmer than 24 hours ago. There may also be enough mid-level instability for isolated thunderstorms over the higher elevations of the Shasta- Trinity mountains this afternoon.
Should see additional drying today with weak subsidence behind the am trof moving in from the Northwest. This should put afternoon highs into the lower to mid 90s over the plains. Only other chance for showers would be along the CYS ridge. Temperatures will warm again as an upper ridge moves overhead. Isolated afternoon showers and thunderstorms over the high terrain have a slight chance of pushing out over the urban corridor and adjacent plains in the late afternoon and evening, especially over Larimer and Weld counties where surface winds will transport in moisture.
343 AM EDT SUN AUG 14 2016 High pressure remains off east coast, keeping front nearly stationary over the Ohio River Valley. High pressure remains entrenched to our east. while a cold front located near the Ohio and Indiana border is very slowly drifting westward this morning. as dewpoints in the low to mid 70s will still make it feel very sticky. Persistent ridge of high pressure keeping the more active weather to our west though still maintaining an oppressive heat/humidity combo over the CWA.
634 AM EDT SUN AUG 14 2016 Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected for the rest of the weekend as a weakening cold front slowly approaches. The best lift, and subsequently better rain chances, will remain west of our area, closer to the upper-level trough axis. Slightly cooler low- and mid-level temperatures and increased cloud cover will help limit Max temperatures today to near normal, but the run of above average Min temperatures will continue this morning and Monday morning. Although plenty of moisture will still be present, the ridging will also lead to warmer temperatures aloft which will limit instability and equilibrium heights.
248 AM CDT SUN AUG 14 2016 Under mostly clr skies across the cwa, temps were in the low 70s. The upper low is now centered over nrn LA while a cdfnt extended from ern TX thru sern MO and into the Great Lakes.
Convective elements have moved off into the Gulf waters well north and west of the lower Keys.
A weak cold front drops out of Canada on Monday and could produce a few more thunderstorms near the North Dakota border.
On the weather maps this morning, a mid-level Bermuda ridge of high pressure was stretching west into the Mid and Lower MS River Valley. Southwest of the high level ridge, an upper level, inverted trough axis from the southeast Gulf to central FL was lifting northwest. The low pressure area that has been responsible for recent disastrous flooding over LA is beginning to merge and phase with the frontal zone. Upper level, inverted trof axis over the southeast Gulf is forecast to continue lifting northwest today and begins to deamplify by daybreak Monday AM. Highs today in the mid to upper 80s southwest zones to the lower half of the 90s over the northeast zones.
High pressure will bring hotter temperatures and fewer thunderstorms to start the week. As high pressure shifts off to the east, deeper moisture will return along with an increasing chance of thunderstorms the second half of the week. The brief northerly to northeasterly flow we've picked up from high pressure building immediately northwest of our area will weaken considerably as the ridge phases overhead over the next 48 hours.
Weak high pressure will keep most of the region rain-free on Monday.
Fortunately, the upper high that has plagued us since late June will struggle to redevelop allowing temperatures to remain near normal this week. High pressure over the east and west coasts of the U. will leave the South Plains in a region of relatively lower 500mb heights which combined with cool southeast flow in the low levels will keep temperatures much closer to normal and below the dreaded triple digit readings.
Chances for rain will be confined to far southeast Oklahoma today and Monday, in a region with greater moisture and proximity to weakening upper low. Passing mid-level trough today is not expected to result in anything other than periods of mid and high level cloud cover, although northwest Oklahoma will need to be watched for potential of highly elevated showers/storms approaching from Kansas this evening.
403 AM EDT SUN AUG 14 2016 Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected for the rest of the weekend as a weakening cold front slowly approaches. Opted to limit PoPs to the low chance range, keeping scattered showers/thunderstorms through mid-morning. Moisture will continue to be fed northward from the Gulf of Mexico, re-enforcing the high dewpoints and PWATs. The best lift, and subsequently better rain chances, will remain well west of our area, closer to the upper-level trough axis. Slightly cooler low- and mid-level temperatures and increased cloud cover will help limit Max temperatures today to near normal, but the run of above average Min temperatures will continue this morning and Monday morning. Although plenty of moisture will still be present, the ridging will also lead to warmer temperatures aloft which will limit instability and equilibrium heights.
Warm, moist advection continues across the area with the upper low spinning to our west. Given the high probability of dense fog across the entire area, have issued a dense fog advisory for tonight through late tomorrow morning. That upper low should slowly progress through the area late tonight and through the day tomorrow. At the surface and in the low levels, warm, moist advection will persist through the day tomorrow and it may not be until tomorrow evening that lower level moisture begins to erode as the mid level trough approaches the area, providing just enough subsidence to erode the low level clouds.
There may sufficient convergence along the trof to produce some light rain and/or drizzle primarily in Central KS.
304 AM EST Fri Jan 20 2017 A warm front in the forecast area this morning will lift north of the area this afternoon.
The dense fog that developed over much of North Central Texas before daybreak mixed out late morning and the low clouds had exited to the east to Bonham to Corsicana to Cameron line by 2 PM. Temperatures ranged from the mid 50s in the cloud enshrouded east to the lower 70s across the west. The low clouds should exit the eastern zones early evening. As an upper level low that can be easily seen on water vapor satellite imagery over central Kansas lifts northward, we will have some brief upper level ridging.
Winds will diminish overnight tonight, and lows will be mainly in the lower to mid 40s.
Negatively tilted upper short wave is weakening as it lifts ne over the se ridge this morning.
220 AM EST Fri Jan 20 2017 High pressure will build over the area today.
333 AM CST Fri Jan 20 2017 Will have an upper trough moving across the Rockies today while another trough comes over the West Coast.
Difference tomorrow is warm air advection may help to diminish the fog as warmer air finally lifts north with the approach of the second weak system. Sounding profiles mainly all above freezing below 2000 ft and surface dew points at 35 or above will keep the precipitation all rain.
Winds have been light and variable with a lee trough in place. A mid level system has begun to traverse the High Plains today and appears to be just east of the region, in central Kansas. Tonight: The mid level system continues to lift northeast as an upper trough moves onto the Rockies. There will be little change in the overall setup tonight compared to last night, so am forecasting freezing fog to develop once again east of the Colorado border. This trough should act as the dividing line for stratus/fog development versus clearer conditions to the west.
Precipitation has advanced very little eastward so not concerned about any local freezing rain where cold air has developed over Miles City and Sheridan areas. Gap winds continue to gust to around 50 mph in Livingston DOT station, as Pacific trof moving inland seems to have slowed a bit. Winds should taper off later this afternoon/evening as trof proceeds eastward. however chances for freezing rain appears less likely. resulting in precip forming higher in atmosphere and falling through a warmer layer of air to reach the surface. should limit freezing rain potential. wet/slushie roads refreezing overnight and remaining slick for the Friday morning commute is of greatest concern at this time.
Stars early and now clouds perhaps redeveloping in the lower levels with our sounding near saturation at 2. Convection will quickly surge nwd back into the area Fri eve with negative tilted trough bringing colder mid lvl temps.
A series of weak upper level troughs will traverse the outlook area today and Friday. As of midday, the first trough axis was centered across western Kansas. Forecast soundings suggest cloud depths should continue to deepen as the trough approaches the area. As the trough axis pushes east the near midnight, all drizzle should come to an end. This solution is reflected in most of the high res and SREF outputs. The stratus will help the fog linger well into the morning on Friday before a warm front lifts north and helps to scour out the fog by mid to late morning. For the most part, this wave will mainly reinforce the low clouds across the area. Although, Friday afternoon into the evening a few rain showers are possible mainly north of Interstate-70 as the base of the trough moves through.
Low clouds and fog will redevelop overnight, with a small chance of showers along the Kansas and Missouri borders this evening in response to the upper low currently moving into northwest Oklahoma. The clouds will finally begin to decrease during the day tomorrow in the wake of the upper low as it moves into the western Great Lakes.
Of great concern are the surface temperatures, which should dip to around freezing this evening and then fluctuate around there through the night before rising again in the morning. Have concerns that the precipitation will be freezing drizzle/freezing rain instead of liquid rain/drizzle, causing icing on local roads. Road surface temperatures this afternoon are in the 40s and low 50s, with sub surface temperatures in the low- mid 30s. We are likely to need headlines once again, but the specific location of the lowest visibilities is uncertain still, though am favoring northwest Wisconsin for the worst conditions overnight.
337 AM EST Fri Jan 20 2017 A warm front will lift north across the region today with the rain tapering off later this morning into early this afternoon.