Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Guidance temperatures have trended slightly colder for today and we have followed this trend as well; it will be a struggle to reach freezing today, especially on the Caprock. Low level moisture will be quite depleted, but will attempt to return along our western border in the low level warm air advection pattern. We have added a mention of light freezing drizzle in this area with isentropic upglide expected though overall moisture quality questionable. Thicknesses will be on the increase starting Friday, but 850 mb temperatures will still be a bit on the low side keeping Friday in the 40s.
much below seasonal average temperatures with highs in the low 30s near the Kansas border and far Northwest Arkansas to the upper 30s near the Red River are forecast this afternoon.
An occluded low-level cyclone was positioned beneath the upper trough, with its associated frontal wave/warm front progressing east to northwestern CA early this morning. Between this period of transition, gusts to 50 mph will be possible for ridges above 2000 feet.
Westerly zonal flow builds back over the Central Rockies and Central High Plains with lee troughing reestablishing itself. Highs will struggle to reach the lower 20s in some areas, and western locations likely won't warm out of the teens despite sunny skies. High clouds increase tonight and insulation combined with shifting flow in the lower levels should result in lows being warmer than this morning by 5-10F.
Basically there will be a large gyre of low pressure circling the northern latitudes of central and eastern NOAM which will help supply cold air and transitory upper jet to bring periods of heavier snow to the intermountain west including our mountains.
606 AM EST Thu Dec 8 2016 A strong low pressure system moving slowly east across southeast Canada will cause cold west to northwest winds across the Great Lakes resulting in significant lake effect snow over southwest Michigan and far northern Indiana over the next couple of days, with scattered snow showers over northwest Ohio and most of the rest of northern Indiana.
Anywhere the clouds break, temperatures will quickly drop with arctic high pressure in place, potentially leading to very cold temperatures.
743 AM EST Thu Dec 8 2016 Radar returns have diminished across the area, and most of the higher based cumulus is starting to scatter out. Aloft, a deep trough remains poised across the CONUS, with an upper level low moving eastward into Quebec, with a short wave trough moving across the Midwest. Current temperatures are in the low 30s, with some upper 20s invading from far northern Kentucky. We start the period with high pressure in control at the surface.
535 AM EST Thu Dec 8 2016 A strong low pressure system moving slowly east across southeast Canada will cause cold west to northwest winds across the Great Lakes resulting in significant lake effect snow over southwest Michigan and far northern Indiana over the next couple of days, with scattered snow showers over northwest Ohio and most of the rest of northern Indiana.
Temperatures this morning across the lower deserts are now in the 40s and low 50s, which is very close to normal for this time of year. A warming trend is expected to begin today as weak ridging begins to build eastward from the west. latest model guidance continues to show highs rising into the mid-60 to near-70 range today across the lower deserts. Progs agree that flat upper ridging will be building into the desert southwest over the next couple of days leading to a warming trend with desert highs forecast to rise into the low 70s by Friday despite another batch of high clouds spreading into the area.
456 AM CST Thu Dec 8 2016 Water vapor imagery early this morning is showing that a confluent upper trough is moving across the area. The RAP is showing that the trough axis will move quickly off to the east this morning. The forecast will remain dry today and tonight as subsidence sets in behind the trough axis. Expect skies to remain mainly clear over the area as the RAP is showing the low level flow gradually straightening out, and then becoming slightly anticyclonic by this evening as high pressure moves in. With strong cold air advection today, will go slightly cooler than MOS highs and stay closer to SREF mean temps in most areas. Britt The ridge axis will be over the eastern Plains on Friday morning.
The main wave of snow pushing south across the region early this morning is being driven by warm air advection from the north in the low to mid levels and a weak disturbance.
Surface winds are from the NNW as cool high pressure begins to build into the FA. Latest surface analysis depicts the area of high pressure centered well to the NW of the region over western Canada, while latest H5 analysis depicts a potent upper low over eastern Canada, with an upper level trough extending southwest to the Texas Panhandle.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 44 23 40 21 / 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 43 23 34 19 / 0 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 44 22 35 19 / 0 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 42 19 33 16 / 0 0 10 0.
For tonight, expect a vort max in the upper trough to sink into southern IN/northern KY bringing a low stratus deck to parts of the region. Soundings indicate that the low level moisture plume will be thick and cold enough for sct flurries late tonight into Fri morning mainly along I-64 and areas north. Fri highs will only reach the 29-33 degree range struggling to warm past the freezing mark over most of the area.
Cold again today with highs in the lower teens northwest and the upper teens south similar to yesterday.
Cold front is through the area this morning and cold air advection is ongoing and will continue through the day. Light showers being observed on radar in advance of a much stronger cold front that appears to be located somewhere near the Ruston, LA area this morning. Despite the forecast breezy winds and early evening cloud cover, cold air advection is expected to be sufficient to result in freezing temperatures across the northern half of the area. In addition to the freezing temperatures, winds of 10-15 MPH overnight will result in wind chills of in the lower 20's across central Louisiana and mid 20's along the I-10 corridor. Temperatures will be even cooler on Friday with most areas not getting out of the 40's.
This courteous of a very cold dome of high pressure that is building south of Canada and progged to settle over the OH and TN Vallie's by Friday. Breezy northwest winds today behind a cold front will begin to usher in the coldest airmass felt so far this winter.
625 AM EST Thu Dec 8 2016 An arctic cold front will move through the area today. Trailing mid/upper level trough axis associated with the closed low tracking across SE Canada will move into the eastern US today and tonight, and will usher in the first true Arctic airmass of the season. The expansive arctic high pressure will dominate the eastern two- thirds of the country Friday and right on through the weekend.
This will be due to longwave upper troughing across much of the eastern CONUS. Today this upper troughing will be supplemented by moderate cold air advection at the surface. Expect highs in the low to mid 20s.
1018 AM EST Thu Dec 8 2016 A trough of low pressure will result in a return to cold temperatures and periodic snow showers through the end of the week.
The only exception could be at KDHT where although not mentioned in the TAFs, there is an isolated chance of some flurries or even some freezing drizzle between 06Z and 12Z, where the chances are low, but cannot be completely ruled out. Warm air advection will move over the cold dome at the surface tonight and temperatures in this warm air aloft may get above freezing. Am a little concerned about the possibility of some very light and patchy freezing drizzle across the western panhandles if the low level moisture can get back. So confidence is not very high at this point, and will not mention it as a hazard, but will have some very light patchy freezing drizzle in the forecast after midnight tonight until noon on Friday.
Strong cold air advection behind an arctic cold front have resulted in temperatures continuing to fall. Surface winds are from the NNW as cool high pressure begins to build into the FA. Latest surface analysis depicts the area of high pressure centered well to the NW of the region over western Canada, while latest H5 analysis depicts a potent upper low over eastern Canada, with an upper level trough extending southwest to the Texas Panhandle.
703 AM EST Thu Dec 8 2016 A slow moving broad upper trough over the Great Lakes will move through southern Canada today and Friday, spreading snow showers into the mountains as it approaches. Ahead of this broad upper trough, a weak cold front will cross the area later today and then followed by an arctic cold front through the region on Friday bringing gusty northwest winds and much colder temperatures that will continue through the weekend.
957 AM CST Thu Dec 8 2016 Cold air advection continues across the region with temperatures currently in the upper 30s across east Texas and north Louisiana and in the low to mid 30s across the interstate 30 corridor.
541 AM CST Thu Dec 8 2016 Clouds along with some light snow and flurries at times is expected again today into tonight as the upper low continues to pull away but cyclonic flow aloft persists. The warmest highs today will be north of I-94 where thermal profiles are just a bit warmer. After quiet weather under the influence of high pressure on Friday, the upper air pattern becomes zonal to start the weekend.
Freezing rain will be a possibility across some valleys before precipitation changes over to rain tonight.
Expect the low vis to remain through early morning hours burning off with sunrise.
an area of -RA will also occur cntrl and south ahead of a cold front dropping through the area. Early morning water vapor imagery/RAP analysis showed the circulation around a large closed low spinning over eastern Manitoba and western Quebec. This closed low will move east today and swing the associated upper level trough across our region and help bring a very cold airmass to our CWA. CAA today will hold temperatures in the 40s at most locations today with our southeast reaching the lower 50s.
With the high centered over our region today, temperatures will likely not exceed the freezing point anywhere, and be mainly in the mid 20s. Winds on Friday will be more southerly, a little stronger meaning better BL mixing, and as a result, the highs will likely moderate well into the 30s and even 40s farther southwest near OK/CO.
913 AM CST Thu Dec 8 2016 Temperatures at 9 am were in the lower 30s across the higher elevations of NE AL and southern middle TN to the upper 30s across the western portion of the forecast area. High pressure continues to push southeast into the area on Friday.
Aircraft flying within the 4000-8000 foot layer could experience light icing as below freezing and near saturated conditions will exist through the next 12 hours. The long awaited cold front is pushing south through Central Texas this morning with plenty of gusto. The colder drier air should arrive in the Austin area right around 12Z likely meaning the high temperature has already been reached this morning for northern areas. While lingering cloud cover could prevent some areas in the far southern zones from realizing freezing temps, most areas will likely see at least 32 degrees by Friday morning.
Light showers being observed on radar in advance of a much stronger cold front that appears to be located somewhere near the Ruston, LA area this morning. Despite the forecast breezy winds and early evening cloud cover, cold air advection is expected to be sufficient to result in freezing temperatures across the northern half of the area. In addition to the freezing temperatures, winds of 10-15 MPH overnight will result in wind chills of in the lower 20's across central Louisiana and mid 20's along the I-10 corridor. Temperatures will be even cooler on Friday with most areas not getting out of the 40's.
Snow will persist over the higher elevations of Lake and Chaffee Counties tonight, with areas of blowing snow possible due to the ocnl gusty w-nw winds. Friday will be the beginning of warming temperatures as Lee troffing and westerly winds spreading into the I25 corridor.
707 AM EST Thu Dec 8 2016 A trough of low pressure will result in a return to cold temperatures and periodic snow showers through the end of the week.
/Today through Tonight/ The large low pressure gyre over eastern Canada is extending its cyclonic influence across the Great Lakes and upper Midwest, but will begin to move off to the east today.
With temperatures falling into the upper 20s in this region this morning, bridges and overpasses could become slick and icy. Light snow may mix in with the freezing rain later this morning as colder air aloft brings the atmosphere column below freezing. The City of San Angelo will likely fall to freezing around 9 AM and stay in the 30 to 32 range through the day, so no significant problems should occur. Lows in the lower 20s are expected tonight as skies clear and winds become light.
Canadian high pressure over eastern Montana early this morning. High pressure slides into the Dakotas today in response a slight ridge pushing into the northern Rockies. Cold air will linger across northeast Montana even as the ridge spreads moisture across the divide.
533 AM EST Thu Dec 8 2016 A trough of low pressure will result in a return to cold temperatures and periodic snow showers through the end of the week.
The long awaited cold front is pushing south through Central Texas this morning with plenty of gusto. The colder drier air should arrive in the Austin area right around 12Z likely meaning the high temperature has already been reached this morning for northern areas. While lingering cloud cover could prevent some areas in the far southern zones from realizing freezing temps, most areas will likely see at least 32 degrees by Friday morning.
546 AM CST Thu Dec 8 2016 High pressure ridge is still well west and southwest of the area which allows the colder air and brief mid level troughs to move through the CWA. Another weak trough in the northwest flow will be bringing mostly cloudy skies to a portion of the CWA today. As the trough moves through, dry conditions will return for late this afternoon and continue through tonight. Temps will be below freezing today with the coldest temps being in the north where most of the cloud cover will be. The cold Arctic air moving into the Midwest for the end of the week will be countered by some relatively warmer air for the end of the weekend.
The strong upper level ridge over the western US will remain intact for the most part through Tuesday, but will begin to flatten some towards the middle of the week. Beneath the ridge, 1000-500mb thickness values will likely near 580dm (the record for June at Great Falls is 589dm). On Monday, a weak upper level low moving through the Great Basin may enhance the coverage of showers/storms some, especially late Monday afternoon into Monday evening and again, mainly over SW MT. Steep lapse rates and dry air in the low to mid levels (ie. On Tuesday, a developing lee-side trough east of the Rockies may help to kick off a few storms further north into central Montana.
Canadian high pressure will begin building south across the Dakotas on Monday with cooler 850mb temps and breezy north winds. Highs will be several degrees cooler compared to today with temps ranging from the upper 60s east to mid 70s west. The extended will be dominated by warming low and mid level temperatures as an upper ridge builds overhead.
We will likely have this battle of the airmasses for the next 24 hours until the overall trough can begin to shove Colin further east.
446 AM EDT MON JUN 6 2016 A cold front will drop south from the Great Lakes today bringing another chance for showers and thunderstorms.
251 AM EDT MON JUN 6 2016 Reinforcing cold fronts late Monday and again Tuesday.
301 AM CDT MON JUN 6 2016 High pressure will stay in control today, with temperatures moderating up into the mid 80s during the afternoon. Quick moving cold front will approach and move through the region tonight. The front will be moisture starved in the lower levels, but mid level ascent forced by an approaching short wave may result in isolated showers/possibly a rumble or two of thunder as the front passes.
429 AM MDT MON JUN 6 2016 Aloft, a weak upper ridge axis will be over western Colorado through Tuesday morning with weak northwest flow aloft over the mountains and northeast Colorado plains. At lower levels, building high pressure over the northern plains will increase easterly flow thsi afternoon along with increasing moisture levels.
416 AM EDT MON JUN 6 2016 A cold front will move across the area early this morning. Low pressure remains to the north as high pressure builds to the south through the mid to late week period.
1215 AM CDT MON JUN 6 2016 Main forecast concerns for the short term will be a mainly dry forecast, however with a cold front Monday, have added isolated isolated thunderstorms.
Temperatures will also be on the increase as an upper ridge builds over the area.
327 AM EDT MON JUN 6 2016 Scattered showers and cooler temperatures can be expected into the middle of the week. That could lead to more than one cell tracking over a similar area before the boundary finally starts to get kicked to the SE as the upper trough settles southeastward by Monday night. The best chances for showers and thunderstorms seem to be pointed toward this evening as the jet streaks overhead strengthen and the mid-level trough axis approaches. By 12z, the mid-level trough and axis of the jet streak will have passed to our east, essentially ending the threat of showers and thunderstorms. Fries The dominant feature of the mid-week will remain the pinwheeling closed low pressure system centered near James Bay Canada.
a large area of hot high pressure is spread out over the western third of the CONUS and Canada. A large trough drops southern from the Hudson Bay into the Great lakes and Upper Mississippi Valley. northeast Montana and most of the high plains lie under northwest flow wedged between these two large features. northwest flow aloft will slowly give out to the the spreading influence of the synoptic high pressure ridge to west.
1122 PM MDT SUN JUN 5 2016 An upper ridge will glide over the area tonight through Monday night. Even if cloud development shows an up tick the lower atmosphere will remain very dry resulting in very little precipitation reaching the ground. Tuesday will start off with the ridgeline over central CO and the trough line just crossing into eastern UT. A weak initial trough will ride over the top of the ridge Tue. as the main trough cross into CO Tuesday evening.
625 AM EDT MON JUN 6 2016 Drier air will move into the area behind a cold front today.
SHORT TERM (Today through Tuesday): The 500MB elongated low pressure is forecast to weaken and get shunted to the southeast through Tuesday as the large scale mid/upper ridge builds into Western Texas. Eastern counties and coastal waters will have the best chances with the trough/shear line overhead while the western areas, west of I-69C, will see little activity with drier northerly mid level flow dominating. As the cloud cover will be less and rain coverage reduced will see warmer daytime temperatures.
402 AM MDT MON JUN 6 2016 Early summer heat will remain in place for another 48 hours with high pressure over the Great Basin shifting east to western Colorado by Tuesday morning. The ridge will continue advancing east during the day Tuesday as a Pacific system moves across Idaho and western Utah. Still enough moisture hanging around to kick off isolated to scattered convection during peak heating, focused on the higher terrain.
650 AM EDT MON JUN 6 2016 Temperatures will likely recover into the upper 70s and low 80s today in advance of an upper level trough that may generate scattered showers and perhaps a thunderstorm by this afternoon.
The center of a dome of high pressure will continue to slide eastward across Kansas leading to light and variable winds becoming southerly winds by this evening. Southerly winds continue through tomorrow as lee troughing develops across eastern Colorado. A cold front will approach the CWA tomorrow afternoon and a few thunderstorms may form along it during the late afternoon into the evening hours. The upper level ridge slowly shifts eastward starting from the Western Untied States and Rockies Tuesday to the Mississippi Valley by this weekend.
329 AM EDT MON JUN 6 2016 Drier air will move into the area behind a cold front today.
243 AM MDT MON JUN 6 2016 Strong upper ridging will remain across the wrn CONUS through the short term. Slightly cooler air is expected across the area today as a backdoor cold front pushes into the wrn SD plains. This will bring warmer temps with highs reaching the 80s across most area. An isolated thunderstorm or two will be possible across the Black Hills Tues afternoon as soundings show a weak cap across the higher terrain and CAPE reaching around 1400 J/kg.
the high based nature favors some gusty downburst winds mostly. The main driver in the longer term is much warmer.
Vorticity maxima in light northwest flow aloft expected to assist in isolated to scattered high-based thunderstorm development primarily in the second half of this forecast, with thunderstorms from the higher terrain being sustained by nocturnal low-level jet over the Panhandles. /Issued 411 AM CDT MON JUN 6 2016/ An active northwesterly flow pattern aloft is expected across the Panhandles fore the next few days as an upper ridge builds over the southwestern states northeastward across the four corners region into the central Rockies.
347 AM EDT MON JUN 6 2016 Temperatures will likely recover into the upper 70s and low 80s today in advance of an upper level trough that may generate scattered showers and perhaps a thunderstorm by this afternoon.
Storms become less numerous on Tuesday as the low pressure system moves into Utah.
Latest satellite imagery showed a mid to upper level trough extending from the Great Lakes down through the cwa onto a closed low around the Southeast Texas coast.
Meanwhile, a cold front stretches from Middle Tennessee back through North Mississippi and Louisiana. /issued 217 PM CDT SUN JUN 5 2016/ A cold front currently stretches from Clarksville, Tennessee to Greenwood, Mississippi. High pressure will briefly build into the area on Monday. However, another cold front will begin pushing into northern areas of the Mid-South by late Monday night.
207 AM EDT MON JUN 6 2016 A cold front will move east tonight. Another cold front will follow on Monday, bringing a good chance for showers and thunderstorms.
Cool lows in the lower to mid 50s, with some upper 40s, with 925 mb temps cooling to +6c to +8C. LLVL thermal trough most pronounced in the morning with some modification in the afternoon.
Temperatures ranged from the upper 50s to the lower-mid 60s. By late afternoon and into tonight, a significant upper trough axis and surface cold front will approach from the northwest. Overall, current thinking is that the highest risk of these two hazards will be primarily across central IN into central and SW Ohio.
The highest rainfall amounts are expected in northern sections where rain and squalls should be most persistent. The latest GFS shows the high moisture band lingering into late week especially across the south.
647 AM EDT MON JUN 6 2016 Cold front remains northwest of the forecast area with Tropical Storm Colin moving northward in the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. The cold front will cross the area late Tuesday morning with TS Colin accelerating away from the area Tuesday afternoon. Drier air will move in behind the cold front with dry weather expected through the weekend.