Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
417 AM EDT SUN SEP 13 2015 AN UNSEASONABLY COOL AIRMASS OVER GREAT LAKES REGION COMBINED WITH NORTHWEST WINDS MAY RESULT IN A FEW LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS OTHERWISE FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS THE MIDWEST. OTRWS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVG ACROSS THE AREA WILL PROVIDE FAIR WX IN OUR AREA DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR AN INCREASING SWLY GRADIENT BUT THERE STILL SHOULD BE AT LEAST A PERIOD OF DECOUPLING AND RATHER STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING OVER MOST OF THE AREA. THE CHALLENGES THIS PERIOD INCLUDE THE TIMING OF SHORT WAVE TROFS AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER LATE THIS WEEK.
234 AM EDT SUN SEP 13 2015 LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING AND THEN LIFTS NORTHEAST ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK. SCT SHOWERS MOSTLY ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY ATTM ARE SLOWLY MOVING OUT OF THE AREA ALONG WITH PRIMARY LOW MOVING NE INTO UPSTATE NY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S INLAND. WITH DRIER/COOLER CONDITIONS WORKING IN. H5 LONGWAVE TROF PASSES NORTH OF THE AREA ON MONDAY AS HIGH PRES BUILDS WEST OF THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME ENTRENCHED ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THIS EVENING AND PASSES THROUGH OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
BUT COOLER IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN). IT APPEARS THAT DEWPOINTS WILL MIX INTO THE LOWER/MID 40S THIS AFTERNOON. WITH LOWS IN THE MID 40S FOR RURAL LOCATIONS AND PERHAPS AS LOW AS THE LOWER 40S FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE AS WELL AS THE DEKALB/PAINT ROCK VALLEYS. A 500-MB SHEAR AXIS CURRENTLY DIGGING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS IS PROGGED BY NWP GUIDANCE TO AMPLIFY INTO A WEAK WAVE AS IT DROPS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.
HIGHS WILL AVERAGE 8 TO 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. WHICH MAY CREEP INTO PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MO RIVER VALLEY AFTER 09Z. ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS RELATED TO THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW LEVEL JET. WILL MAINTAIN THE LOW END POPS FOR MONDAY MORNING AS A WEAK WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
THERE IS A DECENT AMOUNT OF DRY AIR BENEATH THESE STORMS AS EVIDENCED BY DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A TAD WARMER TODAY THAN THEY WERE YESTERDAY. THE MODERATE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL WEAKEN AND BECOME MORE WESTERLY AS THE LARGE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U. THE WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS RATHER BENIGN THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK ALTHOUGH UPPER RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN A BIT OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL MEAN SLOWLY WARMING TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOW/MID 90S BY MID WEEK WITH LITTLE CHANCE FOR RAINFALL. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK BUT THE UPPER TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT WILL BE WELL REMOVED FROM THE REGION.
144 AM EDT SUN SEP 13 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL PROVIDE MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND.
650 AM EDT SUN SEP 13 2015 AN UNSEASONABLY COOL AIRMASS OVER GREAT LAKES REGION COMBINED WITH NORTHWEST WINDS MAY RESULT IN A FEW LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS OTHERWISE FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS THE MIDWEST. OTRWS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVG ACROSS THE AREA WILL PROVIDE FAIR WX IN OUR AREA DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR AN INCREASING SWLY GRADIENT BUT THERE STILL SHOULD BE AT LEAST A PERIOD OF DECOUPLING AND RATHER STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING OVER MOST OF THE AREA. THE CHALLENGES THIS PERIOD INCLUDE THE TIMING OF SHORT WAVE TROFS AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER LATE THIS WEEK.
301 AM CDT SUN SEP 13 2015 FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE MORNING FORECAST ISSUANCE WARMER TODAY. THE UPR FLOW ACRS NOAM IS TRANSITIONING TO ONE WITH A TROF ALONG THE WEST COAST FLANKED BY RIDGES NR 160W AND OVER ERN NOAM. TEMPS YDA AFTN WERE A BIT WARMER THAN EXPECTED. TRENDED TOWARD THE COOLER GUIDANCE PRODUCTS.
230 AM EDT SUN SEP 13 2015 A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE CENTERED IN THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TODAY.
Increasing high clouds and southerly flow beginning to develop in areas near the MO/KS state line have kept temperatures a few degrees warmer. Southerly flow in the low levels will boost temperatures back into the 70s area wide. Amplified flow aloft will transition to a more zonal pattern with ridging building over eastern half of the CONUS.
1217 AM CDT SUN SEP 13 2015 ALOFT: AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP TROF WAS CURRENTLY OVER THE ERN USA WITH A FLAT RIDGE/ZONAL FLOW OVER THE W. THIS HIGH WILL DRIFT SE TONIGHT AND BE OVER THE TN VALLEY BY SUNSET TOMORROW. A CANADIAN COLD FRONT WILL SAG INTO MT/ND. A SIGNIFICANT SHIFT IN THE LONGWAVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIODS AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS ACROSS THE WEST COAST AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS REALIZED ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA.
UPPER LOW IS NOW OVER THE AREA. THE UPPER LOW AND ITS ASSOICATED INSTABILITY WILL BE TOO FAR AWAY.
408 AM EDT SUN SEP 13 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE AREA WILL LIFT NORTHEAST OUT OF THE AREA BY MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH.
THE DRIER AIR AND LIMITED CLOUD COVER WILL ALLOW DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE UPPER 80S TO GENERALLY THE LOW 90S. WITH MOIST SOILS IN PLACE AND COOLER TEMPERATURES FORECAST.
136 AM EDT SUN SEP 13 2015 UPPER LOW TONIGHT SHIFTS EAST DURING SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE FOR MUCH OF NEXT WORK WEEK. 5H TROF AXIS TO SWING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. AS VORTICITY MAX ROUNDS OUT BASE OF TROF IN CYCLONIC FLOW OVER WESTERN VA TONIGHT. SHALLOW STRATCU ON BACKSIDE OF TROF. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN THROUGH MOST OF THE WORK WEEK.
WE CAN EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES EARLY ON GRADUALLY GIVING WAY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES BY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE CLOUDS AND RAIN FINALLY PULLS OFF TO OUR EAST. TODAYS HIGHS ARE ON TRACK TO MAX OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 60S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. LOWS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA ARE FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S AS SKIES CLEAR OFF AND WINDS GO CALM. A GRADUAL WARM UP IS ON TAP AS A RIDGE OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION. HIGHS ON MONDAY SHOULD BE ABLE TO TOP OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 70S AS DAY TIME HEATING IS MAXIMIZED.
/ISSUED 934 PM CDT SAT SEP 12 2015/ COOL AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED ACROSS THE REGION AT THE SURFACE AND UPPER-LEVELS PROVIDING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
Some weak isentropic lift/moisture transport is occurring along the 850mb warm front to our north in KS. Mid level heights will rise overhead this week as the deep trough that brought the nice weather this weekend is in the process of lifting out. High temps will continue to climb thru the week and so will the low level moisture.
606 AM EDT SUN SEP 13 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE AREA WILL LIFT NORTHEAST OUT OF THE AREA BY MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH.
644 AM EDT SUN SEP 13 2015 A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE CENTERED IN THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TODAY.
A NE TO SW ORIENTED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS OVER THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE TO THE EAST TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE DRY AIR MASS AND MIXING IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL KEEP SKY CONDITIONS MOSTLY SUNNY THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY AND ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE 70S. WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES OVER NW WI. IT WILL REMAIN DRY FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WORK WEEK AS THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST.
THE LEE SIDE TROUGH THAT WE EXPECTED HAS BEEN KEEPING WINDS UP. THIS WAS VERY OBVIOUS YESTERDAY AS BILLINGS WAS 4 DEGREES WARMER THAN THE FORECASTED HIGH. WITH THIS IN MIND WENT WARMER COMPARED TO OUR GUIDANCE. WE EXPECT RELATIVE HUMIDITIES TO EASILY DROP INTO THE LOWER TEENS WITH WINDS AROUND 20 TO 25 MPH.
Upper level southerly flow on the eastern side of the low continued to spread cloud cover across Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas. Scattered rain showers along with some patchy areas of drizzle will continue overnight tonight across the CWA as the low over Southern Texas continues to lift northward. Shower and thunderstorm chances increase during the day Saturday as the upper low reaches up near the Red River Valley Saturday afternoon/evening. transporting moisture and slightly warmer temperatures into the region. Instability near the upper low could allow for a few thunderstorms to become strong to marginally severe Saturday afternoon. mainly over Southeast Oklahoma near the upper low.
322 PM CST FRI MAR 11 2016 AN UPPER LEVEL LOW TO OUR SOUTH CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS OKLAHOMA. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA RIGHT BEHIND THE CURRENT SYSTEM TOWARDS THE END OF THE DAY SATURDAY.
400 PM CST FRI MAR 11 2016 TEMPS ROSE INTO THE MID 70S JUST EAST OF THE BUFFALO RIDGE IN WEST CENTRAL MN THIS AFTN. A SLIGHT SHIFT IN THE WIND DIRECTION FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND MORNING LOWS COOLER THAN EXPECTED. AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE BUFFALO RIDGE AND ALONG THE MINNESOTA RIVER VALLEY WERE AREAS THAT HAD HIGHER MORNING LOWS AND THE ADDED AFFECT OF A DOWNSLOPE WIND COMPONENT. THE THEME FOR THE LONGER TERM WILL BE COOLER AND WETTER. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY COOLER FOR SUN. HELPING SHIFT THIS LOW PRES SYSTEM AND ANY LINGERING RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH IT WELL E OF THE REGION.
SFC PRESSURE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE MOVING OFF TO THE EAST. WAA WILL HELP KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS AS MUCH AS 5-10F WARMER THAN THOSE LAST NIGHT.
411 PM EST FRI MAR 11 2016 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY SATURDAY. MOST OF THE LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER HAS SCOURED OUT AND/OR MOVED TO THE SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON. THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE TOWARD NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT. AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON SATURDAY. A MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE SOUTHEAST U. HAVE TAKEN A BLEND OF MODELS WHICH YIELDS HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 60S NORTH TO NEAR 70 SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER.
The center of the upper level low will be near the Red River Valley by Saturday morning and continuing to spiral northward towards the Midwest.
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN AND THE OF GREEN BAY WILL PRODUCE MUCH COOLER READINGS. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES.
A CLOSED LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER SOUTHCENTRAL TEXAS.
THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT 21Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD TROUGH/COOL FRONT FROM NORTHWEST MN TO KIEN TO WEST CENTRAL WY. STILL MILD AIR/BUT COOLER BEHIND IT. WATER VAPOUR HAD SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH UPPER RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND NEXT WAVE OF INTEREST CRASHING INTO THE CA COAST. AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH RACES INTO UT/AZ AS UPPER/THERMAL RIDGE AMPLIFIES OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS IN RESPONSE. UPPER TROUGH SPLITS WITH MAIN ENERGY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AS WEAKER WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AS LEE TROUGH SHIFTS EAST SATURDAY NIGHT AND WAVE PASSES.
1139 AM CST FRI MAR 11 2016 High pressure is dominating the weather across central Illinois this morning, providing sunny skies and light winds. High clouds will remain fairly prevalent as a steady stream of cirrus clouds emanate from an upper low moving into Texas. Upper low drifting northward across the lower Rio Grande Valley into deep southern Texas early this morning, as a sharpening trough approaches the California coast.
331 PM CST FRI MAR 11 2016 A surface warm front and pressure trof will approach the PAH forecast area tonight.
203 PM CST FRI MAR 11 2016 AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW LIFTS OUT OF TEXAS THROUGH OKLAHOMA.
CURRENT THINKING HAS MUCH OF THE AREA HOLDING OFF UNTIL TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING AS THE LOW GETS CLOSER. /ISSUED 1034 AM CST FRI MAR 11 2016/ DRY SLOTTING EVIDENT ON VISIBLE SATELLITE THIS MORNING WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE REGION WITH AN UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER SOUTH TEXAS. BUT EXPECT HIGHS TODAY TO TOP OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. THE UPPER LOW OVER THE LOWER RIO GRAND WILL DRIFT INTO SOUTH TEXAS TODAY AND ACROSS SE TEXAS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. CHANCES FOR RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE AHEAD AND UNDER THE UPPER LOW TODAY AND TONIGHT. RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WITH RIDGE OVER THE MIDWEST. THOUGH THE HIGH CLOUDS HAVE BEEN HOLDING TEMPERATURES BACK OVER OTHER AREAS. QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES OVER THE AREA AS RIDGE GRADUALLY WORKS EAST. RIDGE AXIS WORKS EASTERLY WITH A FEW WEAK WAVES MOVING THROUGH.
1143 AM CST FRI MAR 11 2016 THE RAP MODEL SUGGESTS DEEP MIXING ACROSS NRN NEB THIS AFTN WITH THE APPROACH OF A WEAK COLD FRONT.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT. THE SOUTH WILL SEE A LITTLE MORE SUN AND WILL BE WARMER.
As the upper low finally moves farther northeast, from its current position over deep South Texas, showers will slowly diminish overnight tonight.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS WILL BREAK DOWN THIS WEEKEND. AS LOW PRESSURE OVER TEXAS WEAKENS AND MOVES TO THE EAST NORTHEAST INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW TO MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA AND ALLOW FOR THE WIND FLOW TO SWING FROM A SOUTHEAST DIRECTION TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES BACK UP INTO THE 50S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO AROUND FREEZING. TONIGHT HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NY WILL SLIDE SE PUTTING US IN THE RETURN WESTERLY FLOW BY MORNING ACROSS THE NORTH, BUT MOST OF THE NIGHT SHOULD BE CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY WITH LIGHT WINDS AND TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S. SFC ANTICYCLONE WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A RELATIVELY MILD AIR MASS. 850MB TEMPS OF +1C TO +3C AND SW WINDS 10-15 MPH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SATURDAY AFTN HIGHS IN THE LOW- MID 50S FOR MOST SECTIONS. LOW TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 30S FOR SATURDAY NIGHT.
220 PM CST FRI MAR 11 2016 An upper level area of low pressure will continue to lift north across the southern Texas Gulf Coast this evening, with moisture streaming north into the area ahead of it. As moisture/low level RH increase tonight, we should see cloud bases begin to build down toward the surface, especially over the higher terrain of the Ozark Plateau. The upper low low will continue to lift northeast into Arkansas by late afternoon, with scattered showers and thunderstorms throughout the day tomorrow. The upper low will only make slow progress northeast Saturday night, resulting in the continued chance for scattered rain and thunderstorms through the nighttime hours.
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING ESTABLISHED OVER THE WRN ATLC THE ENTIRE WEEK WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN WHILE DRIFTING FURTHER SEAWARD ON SATURDAY.
312 PM CST FRI MAR 11 2016 AT H5 CLOSED UPPER LOW PUSHING NORTH INTO CENTRAL TEXAS WITH DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND ASSOCIATED HEAVY PRECIPITATION OVER LOUISIANA MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA. WEAK WAVE MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL CANADA OTHERWISE CLOSED LOW OFF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST WITH COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION INTO THE SIERRAS. AND RIDGING OVER NORTHERN CONUS AHEAD OF IT. WITH NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND THE SANDHILLS LIKELY NOT DECOUPLING MUCH OVERNIGHT WITH MILD LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S. LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL FILL/WEAKEN AS IT MOVES NORTH TOWARD OUR REGION SATURDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO MOVE CLOSED LOW OVER TEXAS NORTH INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY WITH ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION SHIELD.
A QUICK MOVING PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE STATE SATURDAY BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED WINDS.
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWED A LOW OVER SOUTH TEXAS AND A RIDGE ACROSS NORTHWEST MEXICO AND THE SOUTHWESTERN US. THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND TOMORROW AND BE OUT OF TEXAS BY SATURDAY EVENING. SATURDAY NIGHT A SHALLOW UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS.
PARTICULARLY WAYNE COUNTY MAY SEE A LIGHT STEADY RAIN FROM TIME TO TIME AS THE LOW PRESSURE AREA PRODUCING THE RAIN SLOWLY NOSES NORTHWARD. CURRENTLY MIDDLE TN IS ON THE COOL SIDE OF A BOUNDARY THAT WILL SLOWLY PUSH BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT WILL BE LOW TONIGHT AND FOG COULD BE AN ISSUE OVERNIGHT PARTICULARLY AT CKV AND BNA. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AROUND 5 KTS TODAY BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE EAST AND THEN TO THE SOUTH AT THE END OF THE PERIOD WHEN THE WARM FRONT PUSHES INTO KY.
AS THE CLOSED LOW OPENS UP AND LIFTS UP OVER OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS SATURDAY. THIS RAIN WILL BEGIN ENDING FROM THE SOUTH SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE OPEN TROUGH MOVES OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. WITH HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
1102 AM EST FRI MAR 11 2016 COLD FRONT EXITS TO THE SOUTH TODAY. AND RETURNS LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AS A WARM FRONT.
UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING INTO CALIFORNIA. SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY INTO THE EVENING. A BRIEF BREAK LATER TONIGHT THEN ANOTHER LARGER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
255 PM EST FRI MAR 11 2016 HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY.
EXPECT A COOLER AND UNSETTLED PERIOD BEGINNING ON MON. A PACIFIC TROUGH APPROACHES THE AREA BY 12Z MON AND MOVES INTO THE REGION DURING MON. THE SYSTEM WILL BRING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA ON MON WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL TURN TO A NW UNSETTLED FLOW BEHIND THE TROUGH ON TUE. THE GFS BEGINS TO MOVE A RIDGE E INTO THE AREA WHILE THE ECMWF MAINTAINS AN UNSETTLED PATTERN.
328 PM EST FRI MAR 11 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND PERSIST RIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL RESULT IN SLIGHTLY WARMER DAYTIME TEMPS THAN EXPECTED. BUT DO NOT WANT TO JUMP TOO HIGH AS THE LOW BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST TODAY. MAINTAINING HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. BUT MODELS CONTINUE TO WRAP MOISTURE BACK FROM THE WEST WITH PWATS OF JUST OVER 1 INCH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE LOW BEGINS TO MOVE EAST. AS THE LOW BEGINS TO MOVE EAST.
LATEST AVAILABLE IR IMAGERY OVERLAID WITH MODEL STREAMLINE ANALYSIS AS OF 200 PM DEPICTS THE WELL ALLIGNED COLD CORE CYCLONE CENTERED NEAR THE PECOS VALLEY OF SOUTHWEST TEXAS. SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE KEYS ARE BENEATH A STAGNANT MID AND UPPER ANTICYCLONIC RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM THE CARIBBEAN TO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST. AT THE SURFACE AND IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE LEVELS. THE KEYS REMAIN SOUTH OF THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN ATLANTIC ANTICYCLONIC RIDGE ORIENTED FROM THE WEST CENTRAL ATLANTIC TO NORTHERN FLORIDA.
1124 AM CST FRI MAR 11 2016 FOR 18Z TAFS /ISSUED 842 AM CST FRI MAR 11 2016/ SFC FRONT IS RETURNING SLOWLY NWWD AS A WARM FRONT THIS MORNING, AND NOW SITS FROM NEAR LYNCHBURG TN TO PICKWICK LAKE IN NW AL. DRY AIR IS KEEPING BOTH TERMINALS DRY AT THIS TIME BUT KEPT VCSH GOING AT KMSL AS NW AL HAS THE HIGHER CHANCE TO SEE PERIODS OF RAINFALL TODAY.
113 PM EST FRI MAR 11 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THE DAY TODAY.
Cloud cover will begin to increase from south to north late in the day as moisture surges into the forecast area ahead of an approaching warm front, then light rain showers will become possible as the column saturates during the overnight hours.
THIS PATTERN PLACES THE FORECAST AREA WITHIN A STRONGLY DIFLUENT UPPER LEVEL FLOW WHICH WEAKENS TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO EJECT. LOWS TONIGHT WITH BE MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 60S. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 70S.
Impressive closed low drifting slowly north through south Texas, west of Corpus Christi as of noon. Rapidly increasing clouds expected tonight, as the moist deformation axis of approaching cyclone arrives. Much cooler in the mid 30s west, and holding in the lower 50s in Barber county. Isolated to scattered light rain showers expected to persist much of the day across the eastern 1/2 of the CWA, as Texas low lifts north into Oklahoma as a negatively-tilted trough.
321 PM EST FRI MAR 11 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN DRY AND RELATIVELY WARM UNTIL LATER SATURDAY WHEN RAIN CHANCES INCREASE WITH A WARM FRONT. EXPECTING A QUIET NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE TRAVERSES THE REGION. AND THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH STARTS TO LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. THE WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH NORTH SATURDAY. IN VICINITY OF THE NWD DEVELOPING WARM FRONT.
A SPRAWLING UPPER LEVEL LOW WITH EMBEDDED VORT MAXES WAS CIRCULATING ACROSS SOUTHERN TX. HEAVY PRECIP TONIGHT EVEN THOUGH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS STILL IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE REGION. THE LOW LEVEL JET ALSO REMAINS WEAK THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
Low pressure over eastern TX will have little to no movement overnight. In the upper levels, there is a ridge over most of FL/GA and a low centered to the west over TX. The highest rain chances will remain to the west over AL.
LITTLE BETTER CHANCES OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS AND PLATEAU. AS THE DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE ROLLS NORTHWARD OUT OF MEXICO INTO TEXAS THROUGH TONIGHT.
THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE LOWER FIFTIES TO AROUND SIXTY ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND STALL OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN INTO SATURDAY. SATURDAY WILL BE ANOTHER MILD DAY DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF THE WEAK COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT WARMER THAN TODAY AND WE EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER FIFTIES TO LOWER SIXTIES. IT WILL BE COOLER AROUND LAKE SUPERIOR. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL PASS THROUGH THE NORTHLAND SATURDAY NIGHT.
922 AM MST FRI MAR 11 2016 UPPER RIDGE STILL OVER AREA BUT THERE WILL BE INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND SOME INCREASE IN HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE LATER IN THE DAY AND TONIGHT. UPPER RIDGE SHIFTING EAST WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER COLORADO. PROBABLY JUST ENOUGH TO TAKE A COUPLE DEGREES OFF THE HIGHS TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW MEXICO.
AND THIS WILL INCREASE TODAY AS THE RIDGE AXIS FLATTENS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL TRACK SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING. THE FRONT WILL RETREAT NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
/ISSUED 1053 AM CST FRI MAR 11 2016/ An upper low over southern Texas will continue to move slowly north with the chances for showers and perhaps a thunderstorm or two increasing from south to north this afternoon and evening.
LATEST SAT LOOP SHOWS THAT THE LAST OF THE LOW STRATUS AND FOG HAS FINALLY CLEARED OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA. INSTEAD THE THERMAL RIDGE WILL BE OVERHEAD. BUT NOT THE LOW STUFF THAT KEPT YESTERDAY COLD IN THE RED RIVER VALLEY.
1102 AM EST FRI MAR 11 2016 HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL DIRECT A WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH SATURDAY.
316 PM CST FRI MAR 11 2016 THE SHORT TERM LOOKS RELATIVELY TRANQUIL AS A RIDGE ALOFT BUILDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL QUICKLY BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST AS THE TROUGH PUSHES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA IN WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND THE FAR SOUTHERN VALLEY. H850 MOISTURE ADVECTION THEN BEGINS TO INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT AS AS AN UPPER LOW OVER THE SRN PLAINS LIFTS NORTH.
257 PM CST FRI MAR 11 2016 Ridge of high pressure currently extending from the Great Lakes to the Central Plains will gradually lose its influence on the weather across central Illinois over the next 24 hours. As the ridge axis shifts northward, it will allow a cut-off upper low over southern Texas to drift northward as well. Water Vapor loop showing the upper low that was in Mexico for several days this past week was tracking slowly north through southeast Texas and will track north towards the Midwest and weaken with time over the next 24 to 36 hours. Meanwhile, upper level and surface ridging across the middle of the country will continue to keep the bulk of the moisture with the 500 mb low to the south of our area until very late tonight or more likely during the day Saturday.