Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
A bit cooler but still sunny and dry today. Large area of strong/cool high pressure remains centered over Ontario early this morning. with ridging extending southward into the Western Great Lakes and the entire length of the Mississippi Valley. Weak cold front will sag southward thru Lower Michigan this morning. replaced by the strong high pressure center as it settles into much of the Great Lakes region this afternoon and tonight. but temps will be a bit cooler today and tonight behind that cold front. area with a large area of high pressure centered overhead of the Great lakes through Maine.
The configuration of the upper level ridge over the full length of the Mississippi Valley will keep the Four State Region under generally northerly flow aloft, oscillating between northwesterly and northeasterly with the shifting position of the upper level trough over the eastern seaboard. The ridging induced subsidence will keep PoPs negligible throughout, while the aforementioned northerly flow, joined by similarly oriented surface winds, keep morning lows noticeably below average in the low to mid 50s while afternoon highs return to near seasonable values in the middle 80s Sunday and Monday. /26/ (Monday Night through Sunday) Surface and upper-level ridge to prevail across the region at the start of the period maintaining stable conditions areawide.
Two upper lows persist today across the Idaho/Wyoming border and across the Carolinas with a weak ridge between the two. Weak lee troughing in eastern Colorado gives way to breezy southerly surface winds today across the Panhandles. By tomorrow, the omega block aloft will break down as the low along the East Coast becomes absorbed into the jet stream across New England. Thus the ridge will begin to swing eastward and the upper low across the Mountain West will start to build northward into an open wave attached to the jet across northern Canada by Monday morning. Some areas across the Panhandles may only warm into the lower 80s with the weak upslope flow.
Another lobe of vorticity expected to rotate around back side of upper low late Monday but not close enough to produce any clouds or other weather impacts.
625 AM CDT Sun Oct 2 2022 (Now through Monday) 500mb ridge continues to dominate over Texas with a 700-500mb dry mid-layer in place. At the surface, a weak trough is analyzed over the SW Gulf supporting a light east wind and a deck of stratocumulus, higher up satellite loops show cirrus clouds streaming northeast over NE Mexico and S Texas from Pacific Hurricane Orlene.
Aside from some lake induced clouds near the Lake Huron shoreline, sunny skies are in store for northern Michigan today as high pressure continues to build into the region. Cooler highs in the upper 50s and low 60s are expected this afternoon. A bit cooler but still sunny and dry today. Large area of strong/cool high pressure remains centered over Ontario early this morning. with ridging extending southward into the Western Great Lakes and the entire length of the Mississippi Valley. Weak cold front will sag southward thru Lower Michigan this morning. replaced by the strong high pressure center as it settles into much of the Great Lakes region this afternoon and tonight. but temps will be a bit cooler today and tonight behind that cold front. area with a large area of high pressure centered overhead of the Great lakes through Maine.
Key points: * Mild and dry into mid-week * Small precipitation chances mid/late week * First frost possible late week Recent water vapor imagery continues to show upper lows over the northern Rockies and mid-Atlantic with broad ridging between.
745 AM EDT Sun Oct 2 2022 The Florida peninsula is in the base of a trough axis associated with the remnants of Ian. Today looks just a touch warmer than the last couple. Even with warmer temperatures, it won't feel quite as miserable. For coastal areas, cooler waters caused by upwelling as Ian passed should keep temperatures more moderated in the lower to mid-80s. Eventually, upper level ridging may try to build back northward as well. Late in the week as the flow trends more easterly and a weaker trough axis attempt to dig, additional moisture may return to support a few storms.
High pressure layered from the Great Lakes southward into the Midwest/lower MS Valley states continues to help maintain dry and near seasonal conditions/temps.
612 AM CDT Sun Oct 2 2022 (Today and tonight) Seasonable, sensible weather is expected today with high temperatures peaking in the lower 80s area-wide as the CWA remains beneath an attenuating mid/upper-level ridge. An expansive closed low remains over the Intermountain West with a barotropic vorticity lobe still meandering over northern Sonora.
Highs will be in the upper 60s inland, but areas around the lake will have highs in the low 60s owing to onshore flow and some of that early cloud cover. Overnight, some more widespread fog may develop again with lows in the low 40s as some of that onshore flow will help sfc RHs reach saturation. Tomorrow, high pressure will continue to exert it's influence with continuing light winds, mostly sunny skies, and highs making a run at the upper 60s to near 70.
620 AM CDT Sun Oct 2 2022 Quiet weather will continue to encompass the region today through Monday night, as upper level high pressure remains entrenched over the region.
A warming trend begins across the region today as high pressure builds in from the west.
424 AM CDT Sun Oct 2 2022 A blocking pattern is in place, with an upper low in the intermountain west, ridging in the central CONUS, and an upper trough in the Mid-Atlantic. This pattern is maintaining high pressure at the surface, keeping clear skies, light winds, and seasonable temperatures in our area. The pattern begins to change Monday as the Mid-Atlantic trough begins to shift offshore.
638 AM EDT Sun Oct 2 2022 A tight pressure gradient will continue today between the remnants of Ian and a large high pressure area sprawling across Canada. The remnants of Hurricane Ian have morphed into a large low pressure area along the east coast. The center of the low had reformed over the warmer waters of the Atlantic in lieu of the original center over North Carolina and Virginia. High pressure will remain over or in the vicinity of the region into the middle of this week.
737 AM EDT Sun Oct 2 2022 Rain associated with post-tropical cyclone Ian will move eastward slowly this morning before subsiding in the afternoon. Quiet, dry weather is anticipated late Monday morning through the early evening as high pressure builds over the Ohio River Valley. High pressure will remain over the OH Valley through mid-week. FKL/DUJ/ZZV are set to remain VFR through the forecast period with the greatest distance from the low, although brief MVFR interludes in stratocumulus are possible this morning. All other ports will remain MVFR/IFR through the post-dawn hours, before ceilings rise, visibility increases, and precipitation chances decrease throughout the morning with high pressure building in from the NW. Conditions will improve from NW to SE as the low departs. VFR is expected until restriction potential returns with a late Thu cold front.
Isolated to widely scattered showers (perhaps a little embedded thunder at times as well) will continue to be possible across the CWA today while a large upper level closed low circulation churns over south central Montana/northwestern Wyoming. This low begins to eject eastward on Monday, reaching eastern Montana/Wyoming by the end of the day. At the surface, an elongated area of low pressure will remain over the western High Plains, keeping breezy south to southeasterly winds across the CWA today. The low will move very little tonight, and only makes its way to the central Dakotas on Monday. High temperatures today will be in the mid 70s to the lower 80s.
A closed low over southeast Idaho is continuing to work its way east with a ridge building in right behind it. This ridge will remain overhead through this week, keeping the region warm and dry.
546 AM CDT Sun Oct 2 2022 High pressure remains in control for the next several days, with temperatures in the low to mid 70s.
900 AM EDT Sun Oct 2 2022 Upper trough remains over the eastern U. Today, while a dry cold front moves southward across our area. (through Tonight) A cold front will slowly move south southeast across the area through Tonight. The front will push to the south of the area towards dawn on Monday, as high pressure builds to the northwest.
544 AM CDT Sun Oct 2 2022 (Today through Monday afternoon) Once again ridging is the dominant feature across much of the central CONUS. While temperatures remain above normal, the low-level thermal ridge begins to be displaced further west. Slightly cooler temperatures can be expected both Sunday and Monday as a result with lower 80s becoming more prevalent versus the mid to upper 80s. While the drier air keeps the overnight temperatures cool, it keeps any rainfall out of the forecast, if subsidence under the ridge already wasn't limiting those chances enough already.
330 AM MDT Sun Oct 2 2022 The upper level low that was over southeast ID has north-northeast into northwest WY early this morning. The main trough axis extended into northeast NV/northwest UT. The upper level low will continue to move north into central MT today, with the trough axis south through western WY. A similar environmental setup is forecast Monday, with the potential for isolated strong storms as the trough and accompanying Pacific front shift east across the CWA. Cooler temperatures will filter into the region Monday night with overnight lows dropping into the lower and mid 30s west of the Laramie Range.
608 AM CDT Sun Oct 2 2022 A blocking pattern is in place, with an upper low in the intermountain west, ridging in the central CONUS, and an upper trough in the Mid-Atlantic. This pattern is maintaining high pressure at the surface, keeping clear skies, light winds, and seasonable temperatures in our area. The pattern begins to change Monday as the Mid-Atlantic trough begins to shift offshore.
Highs are projected to be in the low to mid 80s across much of the region, with the highest temps being observed in the FL Panhandle and western FL Big Bend counties. Highs this afternoon are expected to be mainly in the low to mid 80s with overnight lows ranging from the mid 50s to near 60.
554 AM CDT Sun Oct 2 2022 (Today and tonight) The remnants of Ian continue to move up the eastern seaboard this morning as high pressure over southern Canada ridges down through the central US and into Texas and Louisiana.
A weak omega block is in place over the area with the ridge axis currently just offshore.
Two areas of mid-level low pressure continue, one over Montana and the other along the Arizona/Mexico border, this morning. These look to remain nearly stationary through, at least, Monday, with the southernmost low weakening to a trough. As this occurs, northwesterly flow will prevail leading to drier conditions and cooler overnight temperatures. The exception for any chances of storm activity will be over the higher terrain of the eastern Mogollon Rim and the White Mountains.
(Today through Monday night) Omega block pattern continues to open the short term forecast periods, with 08z WV satellite showing an upper low over MT, an upper low over WV/VA, and an interim ridge over the Plains. Today and tomorrow, blocking pattern breaks down as upper riding over the Plains weakens and the MT upper low advances eastward. However, main limiting factor for precip looks to be available moisture, particularly in the lower levels.
Winds remain from the northwest and north, which is keeping temperatures a little on the cool side along with dew points in the lower 70s. Current temperatures across the island chain range from upper 70s to near 80 in the Upper and Middle Keys to lower 80s in the Lower Keys. The low level feature off the coast of Florida will meander northward through the day, which could bring occasional showers to the Upper Keys. Remnants of Ian remain wedged between a ridge across the western North Atlantic and a ridge over the Great Lakes Region. This is producing a blocking pattern which is not only keeping our winds locally from the northwest to north but also maintaining unusually dry continental air over the region.
The weak low that has been bumping storm coverage up a bit for SE AZ is shearing into the base of the trough north of us today. As a ridge tries to build in from the west, heights and thicknesses will support temps near to slightly above average through Monday before gradual cooling the rest of the week.
In the lower levels, lake effect stratus clouds were moving southwestward across the region behind a back door cold front. Some additional jet energy moving around the upper ridge may produce middle or high clouds across the western portion of the forecast area tonight, with mostly clear skies in the east. Monday should be sunny and a little warmer as the center of the high moves east and winds become southerly.
425 AM MDT Sun Oct 2 2022 The upper level low that was over southeast ID has north-northeast into northwest WY early this morning. The main trough axis extended into northeast NV/northwest UT. The upper level low will continue to move north into central MT today, with the trough axis south through western WY. A similar environmental setup is forecast Monday, with the potential for isolated strong storms as the trough and accompanying Pacific front shift east across the CWA. Cooler temperatures will filter into the region Monday night with overnight lows dropping into the lower and mid 30s west of the Laramie Range.
545 AM CDT Sun Oct 2 2022 Omega block remains in place with a upper closed to the east a ridge axis to the northeast and another closed low to the northwest.
The short term periods continue to be dominated by the slow moving upper low and period light rain shower chances. 01") during the daytime period Monday as the main upper low axis finally begins to move into our CWA.
403 AM CDT Sun Oct 2 2022 Quiet weather will continue to encompass the region today through Monday night, as upper level high pressure remains entrenched over the region.
703 AM EDT Sun Oct 2 2022 (through Tonight) A cold front will slowly move south southeast across the area through Tonight. The front will push to the south of the area towards dawn on Monday, as high pressure builds to the northwest.
617 AM CDT Sun Oct 2 2022 (Today through Monday night) Omega block pattern continues to open the short term forecast periods, with 08z WV satellite showing an upper low over MT, an upper low over WV/VA, and an interim ridge over the Plains. Today and tomorrow, blocking pattern breaks down as upper riding over the Plains weakens and the MT upper low advances eastward. However, main limiting factor for precip looks to be available moisture, particularly in the lower levels.
531 AM EDT Sun Oct 2 2022 Rain associated with post-tropical cyclone Ian will move eastward slowly this morning before subsiding in the afternoon. Quiet, dry weather is anticipated late Monday morning through the early evening as high pressure builds over the Ohio River Valley. High pressure will remain over the OH Valley Monday night through Thurs, seasonable temperatures will likely return during the day.
An upper level low will slide eastward from the Northern Rockies to the Northern Plains during the short term forecast. The Central Plains will remain under ridging aloft with southwest flow over western Kansas. Winds will remain from a southerly direction through tomorrow with lee troughing inching slowly eastward across eastern Colorado. As for temperatures, lows tonight look to dip into the low 50s with highs tomorrow in the low to mid 80s.
246 PM CDT Sun Oct 2 2022 Another near repeat day as the pattern remains in a block as high pressure remains over our area. Did nudge highs up slightly from the overnight shift as temps today were slightly warmer as well. The H85 temps are slightly warmer tomorrow as well.
(Tonight) Our region continues to remain largely under the influence of a broad area of high pressure, which is centered well to our north into the northern Great Lakes and adjacent Southern Canada. Winds have been a bit gusty at times today due to the pressure gradient between the broad ridge and the former tropical low, but those winds will abate again tonight with the loss of deeper mixing.
Aloft, there is at least a west-east oriented trough extending from a low over the East Coast back along the Gulf Coast. This trough is drawing some high-level moisture from what Hurricane Orlene near central Mexico in the Eastern Pacific. Nudged tonight's low temperatures close to persistence values and near the low end of guidance. High pressure is wedging into the region from the northeast today and we remain between a mid level trough to the east and some ridging to the west. An approaching trough Monday will bring forth a warming trend across the ArkLaMiss. Temperatures through the mid week will gradually increase from the lower to the upper 80s.
The Florida peninsula is in the base of a trough axis associated with the remnants of Ian. Today looks just a touch warmer than the last couple. Even with warmer temperatures, it won't feel quite as miserable. For coastal areas, cooler waters caused by upwelling as Ian passed should keep temperatures more moderated in the lower to mid-80s. Eventually, upper level ridging may try to build back northward as well. Late in the week as the flow trends more easterly and a weaker trough axis attempt to dig, additional moisture may return to support a few storms. Winds then fall below 5 kts overnight and shift more to the NNE on Monday in the wake of a weak cold frontal passage tonight.
Clouds will be clearing out Monday as the upper low moves eastward. Monday will be warmer than today but still slightly below normal for temps. Discussion: In the upper levels, the low will slowly drift eastward tonight and tomorrow with northwesterly mid to upper level flow continuing. With northerly low level flow, temps will be slightly cooler than normal despite the sunshine.
Warmer conditions expected for most of this week. Today is expected to be the last day of this deep marine layer, as high pressure to the southwest strengthens across California. High temperatures today are forecast to be a few degrees warmer west of the mountains compared to yesterday.
Current temperatures across western NV and the eastern Sierra are up 3 to 6 degrees compared to this same time yesterday as high pressure begins to strengthen. This ridge of high pressure will continue to build across the western U.
Radar is showing a few showers over western Nebraska in association with the VERY slow-moving upper low that is centered over Montana. Models then show gradual increase in coverage of showers (and enough instability for a few t-storms) later Monday afternoon through the evening as the upper low pushes eastward into the northern Plains.
Unfortunately, these clouds look to continue through the night into tomorrow on the Plateau per the latest NAM vertical moisture profiles, which will keep that area much cooler than the rest of Middle Tennessee.
1229 PM CDT Sun Oct 2 2022 (Now through Monday) 500mb ridge continues to dominate over Texas with a 700-500mb dry mid-layer in place. At the surface, a weak trough is analyzed over the SW Gulf supporting a light east wind and a deck of stratocumulus, higher up satellite loops show cirrus clouds streaming northeast over NE Mexico and S Texas from Pacific Hurricane Orlene.
(Rest of today through Monday) A surface boundary associated with a deep mid-level trough remains draped over the mid-Atlantic and eastern seaboard waters. This pattern will continue to allow the dry, relatively cooler continental air to persist over South FL, while limiting the tropical moisture and any unsettled weather to the Atlantic waters or the immediate East Coast (basically along that frontal boundary).
158 PM MDT Sun Oct 2 2022 The upper low continues to spin over the area, and is slowly moving east. With the low right over the area, there is no shortage of shear. Overnight cannot rule out some more fog development as this weekend has produced some good rainfall totals, so the lower levels will will still be very moist. Monday, the low will be a little farther east, but still not quiet out of the area.
While the upper low circulation remains off to the west/northwest of the CWA through the period, there will continue to be chances for isolated to scattered showers off and on through late Monday night.
Low pressure to our north will help provide support for scattered showers and thunderstorm this afternoon and evening, with most of the activity focused along and north of I-40. Two areas of mid-level low pressure continue, one over Montana and the other along the Arizona/Mexico border, this morning. These look to remain nearly stationary through, at least, Monday, with the southernmost low weakening to a trough. As this occurs, northwesterly flow will prevail leading to drier conditions and cooler overnight temperatures. The exception for any chances of storm activity will be over the higher terrain of the eastern Mogollon Rim and the White Mountains.
353 PM EDT Sun Oct 2 2022 Breezy NE flow is carrying cooler air inbound from strong high pressure in northern Ontario this afternoon. Temperatures holding in the 50s near Lake Huron and struggling into the lower and mid 60s are 5 to 10 degrees below normal despite full sun over the central Great Lakes. This sets the stage for a cold night with advisory worthy frost and near freezing low temps likely inland from the shorelines and north of metro Detroit. Dry weather and moderating temperatures are then ensured by the nearly stationary center of high pressure extending from southern Quebec/Ontario into Lower MI for the early week period. Persistence of the pattern is driven by the parent 500 mb ridge that is part of a blocked mid level flow pattern from the eastern Pacific across North America.
/21 (Now through Monday) An upper-level trough over the Appalachians slowly shifts eastward today before stalling along the Atlantic coast on Monday. An amplified upper-level ridge will also remain in place over the Central US throughout the period. Highs today will warm into the low to mid 80s. With dew points generally in the mid 40s, afternoon relative humidities may drop into the low to mid 20s for some interior locations. Lows will generally be in the low to mid 50s, with upper 50s to low 60s along the immediate coast. Highs on Monday will once again be in the low to mid 80s.
Low pressure will keep some extra clouds across the CWA today along with a few more light showers/isolated t-storms roughly north/east of a line from Challis, to Mackay, to Hamer, to Driggs, before a ridge of high pressure starts to build in for the week.
156 PM CDT Sun Oct 2 2022 Tranquil weather will continue with upper-level ridging dominating the pattern across the region.
Omega block remains in place with a upper closed to the east a ridge axis to the northeast and another closed low to the northwest.
1232 PM CDT Sun Oct 2 2022 (Today through Monday Night) Dry, pleasant wx continues with sfc & mid level ridging prevailing.
A gradual warming trend and dry conditions are expected through the upcoming week as high pressure builds over the region. As such, temperatures are running a few to as much as 10 degrees warmer compared to 24 hours ago in the region's major urban areas. Meanwhile, some of the higher elevations have seen temperatures cool thanks to that deeper marine push overnight. With additional warming through the afternoon, look for 60s to lower 70s near the coast, mid/upper 70s inland, and the region's warmest interior locations peaking in the low/mid 80s. While low level clouds are likely to return overnight, the mid/upper level ridge axis off of the West Coast will gradually shift toward the coastline on Monday. The ridge will then strengthen through mid/late week and nudge further inland.