Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
/issued 337 AM CDT Sat Mar 28 2020/ The primary trough axis associated with an upper level low is currently positioned over eastern New Mexico and will shift across our area as the system transitions into the Central Plains today. The strongest pressure gradient forcing will be this morning, before beginning to ease on the backside of the low amid stronger cyclogenesis later in the day over the Missouri River Valley. Cloud cover, low ERC, and cooler temperatures will also help alleviate fire weather concerns somewhat. Ultimately, RH values will drop into the low teens and with the elevated winds, we'll be issuing a Fire Danger Statement from 11 AM through 7 PM CDT for the entire CWA. We'll cool into mid 30s on the Caprock overnight, and the low 40s across the Rolling Plains.
917 AM EDT Sat Mar 28 2020 Periodic showers and scattered thunderstorms can be expected through tomorrow with the approach and passage of a cold front. Previous Discussion: A warm front will continue to drive northward this morning, allowing for the bulk of the showers this afternoon to be focused over the northern half of the forecast area. Atmosphere remains capped as the warmer air aloft surges northward. Surface warm front will push north of the area tonight as the upper level ridge experience one more brief amplification.
Another day of above normal temperatures will be present in the Missouri Ozarks today ahead of deep trough sweeping through across the central CONUS. This system will clear to our east by the early evening, leaving behind cooler temperatures.
729 AM EDT Sat Mar 28 2020 Aviation - Rain and scattered thunderstorms today - Marginal Risk of Severe weather tonight - Strong winds on Sunday - Today Some elevated instability will continue to bring scattered thunderstorms through this morning north of surface warm front. So we will have to watch for these storms moving into Van Buren and Kalamazoo County as being sfc-based before they move east or northeast and become more elevated to the north of the surface warm front during the evening.
Weak ridging passes over the region on Sunday, clearing skies and warming temps back to the upper 60s to low 70s.
The highest confidence in areas of dense fog is from the eastern FL Big Bend northward into portions southwest GA. An approaching cold front could lead to an isolated shower and rumble of thunder west of the Flint River into the Wiregrass region Sunday afternoon.
303 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2020 (Tonight and Sunday) A strong surface pressure gradient resulting from a low over the Midwest and high pressure over the Southwest is creating gusty northwest winds this afternoon of around 15-20 mph with gusts to 30 mph. Tonight, weak winds and mostly clear skies will result in good radiational cooling conditions, creating cold lows in the low 40s (and perhaps even upper 30s in some locations). Expect slight warming due to the return of southerly flow as a surface and 850 mb ridge develops to our east.
1247 PM MST Sat Mar 28 2020 A warming and drying trend will continue the next several days as high pressure builds across the Desert Southwest.
Increasing winds in the wake of a cold front that passed earlier in the day is helping to bring northwest winds sustained winds of around 30 to 35 MPH this morning in the Oklahoma Panhandle, based upon latest observations from the Oklahoma mesonet. The limiting factor at this point for critical conditions is displacement of higher wind speeds (northeast Panhandles) from the lowest relative humidity values (south and southwest).
251 PM MDT Sat Mar 28 2020 Afternoon GOES-R satellite composite imagery showed the stacked low pressure system over eastern NE, with a trailing cold front southwest through central KS and northwest into eastern CO. Temperatures ranged from the lower 30s to upper 40s. Aside from light snow over high elevations of Carbon County, it will be drier with winds diminishing this evening as a ridge of high pressure builds east into the CWA.
08z surface analysis had low over south central KS with trough into western NE. Water vapour showed upper low spinning up over northeast CO. Grassland fire danger will reach the high/very high category.
Overnight, cloud cover continues to increase from the southwest ahead of another trough currently moving into the Great Basin. The lower atmosphere then moistens overnight and snowfall descends to valleys floors allowing for a dusting.
1242 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2020 Another day of above normal temperatures will be present in the Missouri Ozarks today ahead of deep trough sweeping through across the central CONUS. This system will clear to our east by the early evening, leaving behind cooler temperatures.
The Pacific cold front was pushing into the Coastal Plains this afternoon. Cooler tonight with lows ranging from the 40s in the Hill Country to low 50 elsewhere. Mid and high clouds are forecast to return during the day on Sunday, in the west and southwest flow aloft ahead of another developing trough.
315 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2020 An upper level low over eastern Nebraska this afternoon will lift ne into the upper Midwest overnight. Thunderstorm activity is still expected to ramp up later afternoon, as a pre-frontal trof moves into southeast Missouri by 5 or 6 p. The trof will push east through the evening, with scattered to numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms. Given we are already in the upper 60s to lower 70s, we maintained our inherited warmer highs than any blend option.
941 AM PDT Sat Mar 28 2020 Fair and dry weather today will give way to increasing clouds and a chance for showers as a weak trough drops south over the West.
Active weather is expected for the rest of today and tonight as a strong upper level low pressure system tracks across the Upper Midwest and a surface cold front passes through central Indiana.
244 PM MDT Sat Mar 28 2020 Latest upper air analysis shows the closed low continuing northeast over Eastern Nebraska. Sunday will be warmer and much more pleasant as an upper level short wave ridge moves overhead.
132 PM MDT Sat Mar 28 2020 Latest analysis shows the upper trough is moving off to the east of the forecast area as an upper ridge builds to the west. Rain showers currently over parts of south central South Dakota will taper off later this afternoon as the low pressure system moves farther away from the forecast area. Drier air moving in and subsidence associated with the building upper ridge will lead to clearing skies tonight with low temperatures falling into the upper 20s to lower 30s.
As has been the trend per model guidance and observations, the low will skirt past our south and east. Accumulations look to be limited to areas along the Buffalo Ridge in SW Minnesota, where 1-2 inches of snow are possible. However, surface temperatures will remain above freezing throughout the overnight period so the accumulations are expected to remain short-lived.
1034 AM CDT Sat Mar 28 2020 Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue this morning along and ahead of the Pacific cold front moving through eastern Oklahoma. Behind the Pacific cold front will be much drier and windy conditions.
213 PM EDT Sat Mar 28 2020 Periodic showers and scattered thunderstorms can be expected through tomorrow with the approach and passage of a cold front. Surface warm front currently just north of PGH will continue to drift north and serve as the main source of convective initiation the remainder of the afternoon. The primary threat north of the warm front will be hail, and south of the boundary with more dry mid-level air and steep lapse rates there will be an increased wind threat (in addition to hail) with the strongest updrafts.
Dry conditions with warmer temperatures are expected through tonight.
Cooler airmass has begun to filter into the area northwest of Tulsa, allowing RH values to climb back into the 30-35 percent range. Weak high pressure at the surface will build into the region during the day Sunday with light easterly winds developing Sunday night as high shifts east. Generally went a few degrees cooler in the FYV/BVO areas for lows Sunday night compared to the NBM, which is closer to the MET/MAV guidance.
/Issued 1034 AM CDT Sat Mar 28 2020/ Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue this morning along and ahead of the Pacific cold front moving through eastern Oklahoma. Behind the Pacific cold front will be much drier and windy conditions.
202 PM MDT Sat Mar 28 2020 Latest upper air analysis shows the closed low continuing northeast over Eastern Nebraska. Sunday will be warmer and much more pleasant as an upper level short wave ridge moves overhead.
158 PM EDT Sat Mar 28 2020 High pressure is ridging across the state at the surface and aloft providing dry and hot conditions this afternoon. This will continue for Sunday as the upper ridge builds more over the southern half of the peninsula.
I bumped up temperatures a bit more for highs on Sunday into the lower 60s, and relied mostly on SREFBC and NBM, along with some influence from ECS and ECE, based on recent model performance for days on the warm side of seasonal normals.
337 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2020 Latest surface analysis places a 993mb low pressure system over southwestern Iowa, with a warm front extending eastward through north central Illinois, and a cold front extending southward through western Missouri and into Little Rock, Arkansas. Storms have begun to fire just ahead ahead of the cold front in Central and eastern Arkansas. However, the risk for QLCS-type tornadoes will likely increase this evening, as the low level jet picks up and storms organize into quasi linear segments. A few trailing post-frontal showers are possible overnight as the main trough lifts out of the area. Pacific high pressure will build into the Mid-South for Sunday, leading to dry and pleasant conditions.
Hot and dry conditions are expected to continue through tomorrow as mid to upper ridging remains entrenched over the area. A cold front pushing across the southeast CONUS on Sunday will stall out across North Florida Sunday night, with pretty much no change expected for our weather down here in South Florida.
The warm front was located over southern Iowa. The models continue to show that this low will move northeast this afternoon and tonight.
All terminals have and will be in VFR by 19/20z for the remainder of the afternoon and evening but will likely begin to fall into MVFR and possibly IFR status after 8z as low clouds and eventually some shra move in with approaching cold front. Cold front should move into and through much of the area between 9z and 15z tomorrow.
Breezy conditions will be likely along with slightly warmer temperatures with lower 50s common except for some upper 40s along the foothills. There will be a feed of Pacific moisture into the western mountains for isolated to scattered snow showers in the higher terrain, and isolated rain showers in the valleys and foothills.
332 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2020 Focus in the short term is on the high winds occurring across the southern half of the forecast area. That will leave the area under northwest flow loft tonight with light westerly winds, and temperatures falling back below freezing once again over a large portion of the area.
A cold front will pass through the area Sunday morning with another round of rainfall lasting through early Sunday afternoon.
A cold front will approach from the west late tonight and Sunday morning with scattered showers and thunderstorms along this front. Winds will shift toward the west and northwest behind the cold front on Sunday. Diegan Chattanooga Airport, TN 64 75 53 71 53 / 50 50 10 10 60 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 64 75 50 69 51 / 50 70 10 10 40 Oak Ridge, TN 63 75 49 70 50 / 50 50 10 10 40 Tri Cities Airport, TN 61 74 46 68 47 / 30 50 0 10 20.
A building ridge from the west will begin drying and warming to the area today.
A high amplitude ridge complex is centered nearly atop the Florida Keys, lending support to the strong lower tropospheric anticyclone just to our northeast. East to southeast breezes have freshened over the past 24 hours in concert with the strengthening anticyclone over the Atlantic and the falling pressures across the Midwest. Temperatures are in the lower to mid 80s across the island chain, with dewpoints in the upper 60s. Interestingly, a ring of backscatter is evident at around 7 kft, a testament to the strong subsidence in the lower troposphere.
CIGs come down at all sites just beyond the end of this period as a cold front advances toward the area bringing a line of showers and storms with it. SR Chattanooga Airport, TN 83 64 75 53 71 / 10 50 40 10 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 83 64 75 50 69 / 10 40 50 10 10 Oak Ridge, TN 82 63 75 49 70 / 10 60 50 10 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 84 61 74 46 68 / 10 40 60 0 10.
300 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2020 An area of TROWAL has developed across the highlands of Custer county including Broken Bow where snowfall rates unadjusted for melting appear to be 1 to 2 inches an hour. This compact area of dynamic cooling should decay in a few hours as the upper low across ern Nebraska moves into Iowa and a new area of heavy rain or snow develops near Sioux Falls. A weak area of high pressure the Rockies will build through wrn and ncntl Nebraska overnight. The high pressure will remain in place Sunday for clear skies and a sharp rebound in temperatures.
1215 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2020 18Z TAF issuance Northwest winds have become gusty across the terminals following the passage of a cold front.
High pressure building across northern Louisiana combined with some dryer air through the column should allow for at least some sunshine to go along with the drier and slightly cooler (highs will still hover around 80) airmass.
(This evening through Sunday) A Pacific cold front has moved through the area this afternoon as the attendant surface cyclone accelerates northeastward toward the Midwest.
316 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2020 Precipitation associated with the low pressure system currently centered over eastern Nebraska has made its way to the far eastern part of the CWA this afternoon. This will also likely mean lower rain amounts that previously forecast as well, with the highest amounts of around a quarter inch still possible in the far southeastern part of the CWA and lesser amounts to the north and east. High pressure drops in over the area behind the exiting system on Sunday, with dry conditions expected Sunday and Sunday night.
Additional mountains showers possible this afternoon ahead of the approaching trough.
A warm front extended eastward from the low, generally along the IA/MO border. Behind the low is a tight surface pressure gradient but the one feature that really stands out from the 18z analysis is the lack of cold air behind the system. In fact, most temperatures on the backside of the low were in the lower to mid 40s. Scattered thunderstorms across the area have dropped mainly pea-sized hail with a very low freezing level. Of note, we recently had a gust to 53 mph at FNB with the southwesterly winds on the southern side of the low.
/Issued 1149 AM CDT Sat Mar 28 2020/ /This afternoon through Sunday afternoon/ Showers and thunderstorms will move into East Texas this afternoon with the arrival of dry air behind a cold front.
High pressure ridging will continue to build over the forecast area Sunday resulting in partly sunny skies and dry conditions. Sunday will not be as windy making it feel warmer as well.
715 PM MDT Sat Mar 28 2020 Satellite imagery shows weak upper ridging over our region, with a dynamic low to our east over the upper Mississippi Valley, and a Pacific trof dropping along the BC coast. High pressure ridging will continue to build over the forecast area Sunday resulting in partly sunny skies and dry conditions. Sunday will not be as windy making it feel warmer as well.
/issued 303 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2020/ (Tonight and Sunday) A strong surface pressure gradient resulting from a low over the Midwest and high pressure over the Southwest is creating gusty northwest winds this afternoon of around 15-20 mph with gusts to 30 mph. Tonight, weak winds and mostly clear skies will result in good radiational cooling conditions, creating cold lows in the low 40s (and perhaps even upper 30s in some locations). Expect slight warming due to the return of southerly flow as a surface and 850 mb ridge develops to our east.
/issued 337 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2020/ Latest surface analysis places a 993mb low pressure system over southwestern Iowa, with a warm front extending eastward through north central Illinois, and a cold front extending southward through western Missouri and into Little Rock, Arkansas. Storms have begun to fire just ahead ahead of the cold front in Central and eastern Arkansas. However, the risk for QLCS-type tornadoes will likely increase this evening, as the low level jet picks up and storms organize into quasi linear segments. A few trailing post-frontal showers are possible overnight as the main trough lifts out of the area. Pacific high pressure will build into the Mid-South for Sunday, leading to dry and pleasant conditions.
514 PM MDT Sat Mar 28 2020 Afternoon GOES-R satellite composite imagery showed the stacked low pressure system over eastern NE, with a trailing cold front southwest through central KS and northwest into eastern CO. Temperatures ranged from the lower 30s to upper 40s. Aside from light snow over high elevations of Carbon County, it will be drier with winds diminishing this evening as a ridge of high pressure builds east into the CWA.
Precipitation associated with the low pressure system currently centered over eastern Nebraska has made its way to the far eastern part of the CWA this afternoon. This will also likely mean lower rain amounts that previously forecast as well, with the highest amounts of around a quarter inch still possible in the far southeastern part of the CWA and lesser amounts to the north and east. High pressure drops in over the area behind the exiting system on Sunday, with dry conditions expected Sunday and Sunday night.
535 PM EDT Sat Mar 28 2020 Coverage of showers and thunderstorms will increase later this evening as a warm front lifts into the area. Sfc analysis shows composite outflow/warm frontal zone stationary through cntrl IN/OH invof I-70. Otherwise 3hr pressure falls downstream of deepening sfc cyclone over IA are well west and suggest little movement of warm frontal zone sunset although better mixing noted currently into cntrl IL and indicative of some northward push there. Nonetheless limited warm sector destabilization expected here through this evening timed with warm frontal push occuring beneath poor eml which lags well west ahead of the cold front. Strong winds continue to be expected on Sunday behind the cold front.
The upper level trough along the west coast will weaken as it tracks east across the Great Basin Sunday through Sunday night.
641 PM MDT Sat Mar 28 2020 Latest upper air analysis shows the closed low continuing northeast over Eastern Nebraska. Sunday will be warmer and much more pleasant as an upper level short wave ridge moves overhead.
926 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2020 Fairly quiet on the back end of the large low pressure system churning across Iowa and Minnesota. Precipitation associated with the low pressure system currently centered over eastern Nebraska has made its way to the far eastern part of the CWA this afternoon. This will also likely mean lower rain amounts that previously forecast as well, with the highest amounts of around a quarter inch still possible in the far southeastern part of the CWA and lesser amounts to the north and east. High pressure drops in over the area behind the exiting system on Sunday, with dry conditions expected Sunday and Sunday night.
/Tonight through Sunday Night/ Ongoing convection is currently west of a line from Lufkin Texas, to Shreveport, to Magnolia Arkansas just ahead of a cold front. Most of the convection should be out of the area late this evening as the cold front pushes east of the region. Noticeably cooler and drier conditions will move into the region as temperatures by tomorrow morning will be in the upper 40s and lower 50s.
Focus in the short term is on the high winds occurring across the southern half of the forecast area. That will leave the area under northwest flow loft tonight with light westerly winds, and temperatures falling back below freezing once again over a large portion of the area.
A cold front will move through the area Sunday morning ushering in cooler, drier air to the region. Severe weather will be possible as the line moves through ahead of a cold front. Southwesterly winds are forecast to strengthen after the cold front passes through the Ohio Valley on Sunday morning. Forecast lows are in the 40s areawide and surface ridging strengthens.
An upper high pressure system will provide quiet and stable conditions across the area through Sunday. Due to the proximity of the high pressure system the cloud cover for our area will be mostly clear though this time, giving us mostly sunny skies. Lucie counties in the lower 60s.
336 PM MDT Sat Mar 28 2020 Upper level low will continue to pull away from eastern Colorado with the surface pressure gradient relaxing and winds decreasing across the eastern plains through the evening. Lingering snow showers across the mountains have mostly come to an end, though some isolated showers may persist across the higher peaks of the Continental Divide until after sundown. Next upper trough approaches the area tomorrow afternoon spreading moisture and lift into the Continental Divide.
828 PM EDT Sat Mar 28 2020 Ridging aloft over the state coupled with surface ridging over the W Atlantic extending across the Peninsula maintain our warm and dry conditions. Ridging aloft will finally begin to loosen its grip Sunday, allowing for slight moderation of afternoon highs.
512 PM MDT Sat Mar 28 2020 Latest analysis shows the upper trough is moving off to the east of the forecast area as an upper ridge builds to the west. Rain showers currently over parts of south central South Dakota will taper off later this afternoon as the low pressure system moves farther away from the forecast area. Drier air moving in and subsidence associated with the building upper ridge will lead to clearing skies tonight with low temperatures falling into the upper 20s to lower 30s.
Rotation quickly weakened as the storm crossed the warm front into the more stable air mass. - Izzi 359 AM CDT Low pressure associated with the current storm system will begin its occlusion into Sunday and it will track toward Lake Superior through the day.
As the cold front pushes through the region it will take from three to six hours for ceilings to improve. High pressure building across northern Louisiana combined with some dryer air through the column should allow for at least some sunshine to go along with the drier and slightly cooler (highs will still hover around 80) airmass.
732 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2020 An area of TROWAL has developed across the highlands of Custer county including Broken Bow where snowfall rates unadjusted for melting appear to be 1 to 2 inches an hour. This compact area of dynamic cooling should decay in a few hours as the upper low across ern Nebraska moves into Iowa and a new area of heavy rain or snow develops near Sioux Falls. A weak area of high pressure the Rockies will build through wrn and ncntl Nebraska overnight. The high pressure will remain in place Sunday for clear skies and a sharp rebound in temperatures.
833 PM EDT Sat Mar 28 2020 Periodic showers and scattered thunderstorms can be expected through tomorrow with the approach and passage of a cold front.
The actual cold front remains well to the west, over Arkansas. The line of storms will push out of NE Alabama by 7 am tomorrow morning, with the cold front lagging behind by a few hours.
649 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2020 (This evening through Sunday) A Pacific cold front has moved through the area this afternoon as the attendant surface cyclone accelerates northeastward toward the Midwest.
An approaching cold front from the W/NW will continue to lift CIGs and decrease cloud cover overnight Sat into Sun morning.