Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING MAINLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY DIGS INTO THE PACIFIC COAST. THIS LOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE NEAR THE CALIFORNIA COAST FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. THE LOW WILL PUMP MOISTURE INTO THE AREA RESULTING IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH SOME ISOLATED NOCTURNAL CONVECTION EVEN POSSIBLE.
349 PM EDT SUN AUG 9 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
SOME SPECKS OF RADAR RETURNS ARE OCCURRING IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS NORTHEAST OF THE AREA. RAIN CHANCES STAY ON THE LOW SIDE THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS AN UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVERHEAD.
HIGH TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 70S FAR SOUTH TO NEAR 80 TOWARD CENTRAL WI. A BETTER ORGANIZED UPPER TROUGH THEN APPROACHES FROM THE NW TOWARD MON AM SO WENT WITH SLIGHT CHANCES IN THE FAR NWRN CWA. LOW LEVEL TROUGH EXPECTED TO PASS DURG THE AFTN AS WELL.
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA IS BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING HAS EXPANDED WESTWARD OVER THE REGION TODAY BRINGING WARMER WEATHER. TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY ARE 3 TO 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY AND HAVE REACHED THE 90S FOR MUCH OF THE VALLEY, 70S AND 80S OVER THE MOUNTAINS. THE MARINE LAYER IS THICKENING AND WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER LOW EXPECT AN INCREASE IN ONSHORE FLOW AND A STRONGER DELTA BREEZE TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND DOWNWARD THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS AN UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OFF THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST DROPS SOUTHWARD.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH THE UPPER WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS BRINGING A WEAK DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE AXIS OF THE RIDGE AMPLIFYING OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ROCKIES EARLY MONDAY MOVES OVER THE HIGH PLAINS BY MONDAY EVENING.
535 PM EDT SUN AUG 9 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SPIN OFFSHORE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. EXPECT WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE CENTRAL CASCADES.
311 PM CDT SUN AUG 9 2015 STACKED HIGH PRESSURE CELL OVER E-CENTRAL TX IS ON TRACK TO CONTINUE ITS WESTWARD MIGRATION BEFORE SETTLING OVER THE LOCAL AREA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. SATELLITE REVEALED AGITATED CU ORGANIZING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH WHICH SHOULD MATURE INTO PULSE STORMS IN THE HOURS AHEAD. BETTER PRECIP CHANCES SHOULD TAKE AIM ACROSS THE WESTERN PANHANDLE AND ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST NM LATER IN THE DAY AS WINDS IN THE LOWEST 12K FEET TURN SELY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BE CENTERED OVERHEAD MONDAY EVENING WHILST VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL LOW SLIDES DOWN THE PACIFIC NORTHWESTERN COAST.
457 PM EDT SUN AUG 9 2015 HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE FORECAST AREA WILL WEAKEN THROUGH MONDAY.
351 PM EDT SUN AUG 9 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AND GRADUALLY MOVE OFFSHORE MONDAY.
135 PM PDT SUN AUG 9 2015 LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST WILL BRING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO MUCH OF THE REGION THROUGH EARLY IN THE WEEK.
253 PM EDT SUN AUG 9 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THINGS DRY AND QUIET TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY.
EXPECT IT TO MOVE EAST ALONG THE MISSOURI/IOWA BORDER AFFECTING AT LEAST THE NORTHERN CWA THROUGH SUNRISE AS THE LOW LEVEL JET BEGINS TO VEER.
AS A WARM FRONT MOVES INTO AT LEAST WRN PORTION OF THE REGION. RIDGING INFLUENCES BUILDING INTO THE MID STATE AS TUE PROGRESSES. AND AM EXPECT A SEASONAL WARM NIGHT ACROSS THE MID STATE TONIGHT WITH TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. HIGH TEMPS TOMORROW SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY DUE TO THE SCT CONVECTION WITH HIGHS AROUND 90. MAINLY IN THE LOW 70S. RIDGING INFLUENCES BUILDING INTO THE MID STATE ON TUE. A DRY NWLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WILL DEVELOP THRU THU IN RESPONSE TO UPPER LEVEL BUILDING RIDGING INFLUENCES ACROSS ROCKIES THRU THU. WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING INFLUENCES SPREADING EWD FRI THRU THE WEEKEND. MIDWEST BASED HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE MID STATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED.
NO RAIN IS EXPECTED UNDERNEATH A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH BELOW NORMAL AIRMASS MOISTURE.
EXPECT VFR AS THE PERSISTENT RIDGE ALOFT CONTINUES TO PREVAIL. THE RIDGE SHOULD KEEP THE AREA FREE OF CONVECTION ALTHOUGH HI-RES GUIDANCE SHOWS SOME ISLTD SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLY ACRS OUR SERN ZONES LATE THIS AFTN. 500 MB HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN A SLOW FALL BEGINNING LATER TODAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO SHIFT WEST WITH TIME. /ISSUED 435 AM CDT SUN AUG 9 2015/ THE RIDGE ALOFT REMAINS FIXED OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH A SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS.
LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT TRACKING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY WILL ALLOW FOR CONTINUED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL BRING DRY AND COOLER WEATHER FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 80S NW TO THE UPPER 80S SE. WILL CONTINUE CHANCE POPS TONIGHT AND THEN INCREASE TO LKLY ON MONDAY AS LOW END MODERATE INSTBY DEVELOPS AHEAD OF SOUTHWARD TRAILING SFC COLD FRONT. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 80S NORTH TO THE MID 80S SOUTH.
345 PM EDT SUN AUG 9 2015 18Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE STILL IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER ACROSS EAST KENTUCKY. HIGH CLOUDS ARE MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WHILE SCATTERED CU IS DISSIPATING OVER THE AREA. TEMPERATURES ARE TOPPING OUT IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY WHILE DEWPOINTS VARY FROM THE MID 60S NORTH TO THE LOWER 70S IN THE SOUTH WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. THEY ALL DEPICT KENTUCKY ON THE NORTHEAST FRINGE OF A STRONG RIDGE CENTERED OVER CENTRAL TEXAS. THE PATTERN WILL FURTHER AMPLIFY THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND APPALACHIANS AS A TROUGH FROM CENTRAL CANADA WILL DIVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES LATER MONDAY.
614 PM EDT SUN AUG 9 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THINGS DRY AND QUIET TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY.
146 PM EDT SUN AUG 9 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN LAKES WILL MOVE EAST TODAY.
723 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015 THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS TO MUCH OF CENTRAL INDIANA INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
634 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015 220 AM CDT HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE WEATHER TODAY AND LIKELY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE RIDGE CENTER IS POSITIONED WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL WARM TO NEAR SEASONAL CONDS IN THE LOWER 80S. CLOSER TO LAKE MICHIGAN TEMPS MAY BE JUST A FEW DEGREES COOLER. ELSEWHERE WITH THE RIDGE CENTER DISPLACED NORTHEAST OF THE CWFA. HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL AGAIN APPROACH THE LOW 80S.
722 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL PA EARLY TODAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE REGION DURING MIDWEEK.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. BEFORE A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES NORTHERN UTAH WEDNESDAY. SHORT WAVE RIDGING IS ADVANCING OVER THE NORTHERN CWA THIS MORNING WHILE A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE IS MOVING INTO SWRN UT. THE SHORT WAVE RIDGE OVER THE NORTH WILL KEEP THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN PLACE SUPPRESSED FOR MOST OF THE DAY. A BETTER DEFINED SHORT WAVE TROF IS APPROACHING THE CA COAST AT THIS TIME AND IS FORECAST TO LIFT INTO THE WRN GREAT BASIN BY WED MORNING AND CROSS THE NRN CWA WED AFTN. RIDGING BRIEFLY RETURNS TO THE AREA THU.
LATEST AVAILABLE IR IMAGERY OVERLAID WITH MODEL STREAMLINE ANALYSIS AS OF 900 AM DEPICT THE CENTER OF AN EXPANSIVE MIDDLE AND UPPER ANTICYCLONE POSITIONED OVER NORTH CENTRAL OLD MEXICO. SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS ARE BENEATH THE EASTERN MOST PERIPHERY OF THE ANTICYCLONE. THERE IS EVIDENCE OF A FAINT MID-LEVEL TROUGH FEATURE EVIDENT IN THE 12Z SOUNDING. AT THE SURFACE AND IN THE LOWER TO MID LEVELS. DETAIL WEAK SURFACE RIDGING FROM NEAR 30 NORTH 70 WEST EXTENDING WEST SOUTHWESTWARD TO ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA. THERE IS A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH POSITIONED NORTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND BAHAMAS. WEAK LOW-MID LEVEL RIDGING IS LIKELY TO BE OVERCOME BY STRONG HEATING. FAVORING MORE THE LOWER AND MIDDLE KEYS. AN ATLANTIC RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN JUST NORTH OF THE KEYS THROUGH THIS EVENING.
1230 PM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015 THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS TO MUCH OF CENTRAL INDIANA INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
1101 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015 220 AM CDT HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE WEATHER TODAY AND LIKELY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE RIDGE CENTER IS POSITIONED WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL WARM TO NEAR SEASONAL CONDS IN THE LOWER 80S. CLOSER TO LAKE MICHIGAN TEMPS MAY BE JUST A FEW DEGREES COOLER. ELSEWHERE WITH THE RIDGE CENTER DISPLACED NORTHEAST OF THE CWFA. HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL AGAIN APPROACH THE LOW 80S.
953 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA LATER TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
641 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015 LARGE UPPER LOWS OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA AND HUDSON BAY WITH RIDGE THROUGH NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO CANADA. MOVING UNDER THE RIDGE. BROAD TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS FROM HUDSON BAY LOW INTO THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. AS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST NORTHEAST TODAY CONVECTION WILL BEGIN OVER SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND THE SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA PANHANDLE ALONG STATIONARY BOUNDARY.
853 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015 A COLD FRONT OVER NORTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA LATE THIS MORNING. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE REGION DURING MIDWEEK.
1124 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015 A COLD FRONT OVER CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA THIS MIDDAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE REGION DURING MIDWEEK.
900 AM PDT TUE AUG 4 2015 SEASONAL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THIS COMING WEEK UNDER HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT.
401 AM PDT TUE AUG 4 2015 COOLER WEATHER EARLY THIS WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES BELOW AVERAGE FOR EARLY AUGUST THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
NUMERICAL AND MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN YESTERDAY.
1019 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015 IT WILL REMAIN DRY TODAY UNDER WEAK HIGH PRESSURE. BUT OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH WEDNESDAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE HOLDING STRONG OVER THE GREAT LAKES. HIGHS WILL BE COOLER BY THE LAKE. ONLY IN THE LOWER 70S.
EASTWARD PROGRESS IS A COUPLE OF HRS FASTER THAN PROGGED BY THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS SO WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SE OK/SW AR NORTH OF I-30. BUT SHOULD MIX OUT ENOUGH TO KEEP THE HEAT INDEX IN THE LOW END OF THE TRIPLE DIGIT. IN THE WAKE OF THIS SHORT WAVE LOOK FOR THE UPPER RIDGE TO LIFT BACK FROM THE SOUTH OVER US AGAIN BY THE WEEKEND WITH CLIMBING AFTERNOON NUMBERS LIKELY. LAST NIGHTS SOUNDING LEFT US WITH MOISTURE IN THE LOWEST LEVEL AROUND 7. EXPECT THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN TO LINGER UNDER LOWER HEIGHTS ALOFT FOR A COUPLE OR FEW DAYS AND THEN DISAPPEAR AGAIN AS THE RIDGE EXPANDS BACK NORTHWARD.
932 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015 A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE REGION TODAY.
WITH THE POOLING OF MOISTURE ALONG THE SURFACE TROF ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL FL. A RIDGE SLIDES IN AND KEEPS WINDS SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE PERIOD.
MOCLR SKIES WILL CONTINUE THRU THE EVE HRS THEN CLOUDS INCRS SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT IN ADVANCE ON AN APCHG WMFNT AND A FLATTENING RIDGE ALOFT. THE INCRS IN CLOUDS PLUS A MORE WLY RATHER THAN NWLY FLOW ALOFT MEANS TEMPS WILL BE WARMER EARLY WED MRNG THAN THIS MRNG. THE GUIDANCE GENERALLY AGREES THAT THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AND UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
1020 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015 AVIATION SECTION UPDATED HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS TO MUCH OF CENTRAL INDIANA INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
931 AM MDT TUE AUG 4 2015 UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL WY CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE CWA. TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT UPPER LOW ACROSS WY CONTINUES ITS TRACK TOWARD THE CWA THIS MORNING. CONVECTION WILL RAMP UP THIS AFTN INTO THE EVNG AS THE UPPER LOW CROSSES THE AREA.
523 AM MDT TUE AUG 4 2015 12Z TAF CYCLE A FEW -TSRA ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN AND PORTIONS OF NE NM THIS AFTN AND EARLY EVE.
Showers and storms will develop across the higher terrain later today. After today, the ridge begins to strengthen and rain chances will quickly exit the majority of the area except for the Davis Mountains where a few isolated showers may be possible again tomorrow. The rain that moved the through area should keep temperatures a degree or two cooler today, but things will quickly heat up by midweek.
620 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015 FOR 12Z TAFS /ISSUED 252 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015/ BROAD TROUGHING EXISTS OVER ONTARIO/QUEBEC/NEW ENGLAND WHILE A WEAKLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. MEANWHILE, THE ADVERTISED SHEARED TROUGH STRETCHING FROM WY TO THE OZARKS WILL BEGIN TO AMPLIFY ON TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. LATEST ECMWF DOES SHOW A SLIGHTLY SLOWER PROGRESSION WITH THE TROUGH WHICH MAY NECESSITATE TAILORING BACK POPS ON WEDNESDAY MORNING. CLOUD COVER SHOULD INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE TROUGH.
THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE HIGHER POPS ALREADY IN THE FORECAST FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WE EXPECT STORMS TO FIRE ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND THEN MOVE NE FROM EARLY THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
HOWEVER SUBSIDENCE DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WAS APPEARING TO KEEP THE COVERAGE VERY ISOLATED. /ISSUED 408 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015/ EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND EVENING UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED A FLATTENED UPPER RIDGE STRETCHING ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS INTO TEXAS. HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO TOP OUT IN THE LOW 90S ALONG THE COAST. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW OVER THE PACIFIC APPROACHES THE WEST COAST.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NORTHEAST OF FLORIDA WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY FROM THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT.
906 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015 220 AM CDT HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE WEATHER TODAY AND LIKELY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE RIDGE CENTER IS POSITIONED WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL WARM TO NEAR SEASONAL CONDS IN THE LOWER 80S. CLOSER TO LAKE MICHIGAN TEMPS MAY BE JUST A FEW DEGREES COOLER. ELSEWHERE WITH THE RIDGE CENTER DISPLACED NORTHEAST OF THE CWFA. HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL AGAIN APPROACH THE LOW 80S.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
1028 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015 DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER FOR NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES.
/ISSUED 241 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015/ UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL LIFT NORTHEAST TODAY. AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL PUSH INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. WITH THE FREEZING LEVEL FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE 15. A WEAK AREA OF VORTICITY FROM AN OLD UPPER LOW WILL PUSH NORTHEAST. BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT (AROUND -7.
604 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015 WATER VAPOR/DATA ANALYSIS HAS A CLOSED MID-LEVEL LOW OVER EASTERN ONTARIO CANADA WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. LOOK FOR QUIET/DRY WEATHER TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL ACROSS THE REGION. GIVEN HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD TONIGHT AND LIGHT/CALM WINDS. QUIET/DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY WITH THE HIGH HOLDING OVERHEAD WITH HIGHS TOPPING OFF AGAIN IN THE MIDDLE 70S TO MIDDLE 80S.
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL REACH 15KTS AT ALL AIRPORTS WITH A FEW GUSTS INTO THE LOW 20S. RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. 5 INCHES MOVING INTO THE LOWER VALLEY. THE DRIER AIR MIXING DOWN TO THE SFC WILL ALSO HELP TEMPERATURES SOAR INTO THE LOW 100S FOR NEARLY ALL OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.
Broad troughing continues to cover the eastern half of the country this morning, with a weak surface front (marked by a Td gradient) draped northeast to southwest from Augusta to Mobile. Also, a strengthening area of low pressure sits off the SC coast.
637 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015 CONVECTION WAS ONGOING THIS MORNING ALONG A WARM FRONT AND 2000 J/KG INSTABILITY AXIS DRAPED FROM SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA. BEFORE A SECOND AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPS OVER KANSAS WITH THE STRENGTHENING WARM FRONT.
546 AM MDT TUE AUG 4 2015 WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING MONSOON PLUME BEING ADVECTED EAST INTO THE EASTERN CWFA THIS MORNING AHEAD OF AN UPPER LOW CURRENTLY TRACKING INTO SOUTHERN WYOMING NEAR RAWLINS. UPPER LOW MOVES EAST INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA AFTER 06Z THIS EVENING WITH MOST SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COMING TO AN END AFTER THAT TIME. UPPER RIDGE BUILDS BACK OVER THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CWFA.
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS SITUATED OVER EASTERN TN AND MUCH OF NORTHERN AL THIS MORNING. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HAS FORMED IN SOUTHERN MISSOURI ALONG THE FRONT. A WEAK AREA OF CONVERGENCE EXISTS SOUTH FROM THIS FEATURE JUST WEST OF THE RIDGE INTO MISSOURI.
742 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015 WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ALONG THE COAST TODAY.
WHAT IS REALLY IMPRESSIVE IS THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALONG THAT BOUNDARY TO OUR W WHERE BACKBUILDING CONVECTION IS OCCURRING. THE MAIN ISSUE RIGHT NOW IS HOW THE SLOW MOVING MORNING COLD POOL IS OPPOSITE THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR VECTORS. WE MAY NEED TO UPGRADE THE E-CENTRAL OR SE AREAS TO AN ELEVATED DEPENDING ON HOW THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND COLD POOL INTERACT.
WITH UPPER RIDGING OVER THE ROCKIES. THE RIDGE HAS DEAMPLIFIED WITH AN UPPER WAVE AND THE MAIN WESTERLIES IN THE WESTERN CANADIAN PROVINCES. HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED IN CENTRAL/EASTERN NEBRASKA.
MSAS ANALYSIS INDICATING LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
THE KTBW 12Z SOUNDING IS SHOWING MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES ABOUT A HALF DEGREE COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WILL KEEP WINDS LIGHT AND SEAS LOW THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK.
1032 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015 WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVES TO OUR EAST THIS INDEPENDENCE DAY.
1138 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT PROVIDING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TODAY AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S IN SOUTHERN MICHIGAN TO THE LOWER 80S NEAR THE OHIO RIVER. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S IN SOUTHERN MICHIGAN TO THE LOWER 60S ALONG THE OHIO RIVER. RIDGE ALOFT OVER MN/IA EXPECTED TO BUILD TOWARD OUR AREA TODAY AND MOVE OVERHEAD TONIGHT. SMOKE ALOFT FROM CANADIAN FOREST FIRES EXTENDED AS FAR SOUTH AS THE GRTLKS/OH VALLEY YDAY BUT WAS THICKER TO THE NW JUST AHEAD OF THE UPR RIDGE AXIS.
1230 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015 A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE HAS BEGUN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA ALLOWING FOR MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THIS HIGH WILL PROVIDE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY.
LATEST AVAILABLE IR IMAGERY OVERLAID WITH MODEL STREAMLINE ANALYSIS AS OF 900 AM CONTINUES TO DEPICT LARGE SCALE MIDDLE AND UPPER TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CONUS. THERE IS A STALWART MID AND UPPER RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS THE ENTIRE WESTERN CONUS. SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE KEYS REMAIN BENEATH BUILDING MIDDLE AND UPPER RIDGING WITH ONE WEAKER CENTER NEAR ANDROS ISLAND AND A STRONGER CENTER OUT NEAR 27 NORTH 70 WEST. A REGIONAL SCALE UPPER TROUGH IS LOCATED OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. AT THE SURFACE AND IN THE LOWER TO MID LEVELS. HAZY AT TIME CAN BE ANTICIPATED WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 90S AND DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S.
947 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015 SHOWER CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH TODAY AS AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE TROUGH SLIDES EASTWARD. BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL ENSURE A DRY AND SEASONABLY WARM SUNDAY.
633 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015 HIGH PRESSURE STILL IN THE AREA TO PUSH OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST TODAY. WITH WEAK WAA SO SHOULD SEE WARMER TEMPS TODAY THAN IN THE PAST FEW DAYS. STILL EXPECTING SOME OF THE SMOKE TO WORK ITS WAY INTO THE AREA IN THE HIGHER LEVELS MAY CREATE SOME HAZE AND AGAIN COULD IMPACT MAX TEMPS A BIT. AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT.
THE SOUTHERN SACRAMENTO VALLEY (SACRAMENTO METRO AREA) AND NORTHERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY (STOCKTON/MODESTO VICINITY) WILL BE INFLUENCED BY THE DELTA BREEZE AND BE ON THE COOLER SIDE.
IN BETWEEN THESE TWO RIDGES. A BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL ENCOMPASS THE EASTERN HALF OF NORTH AMERICA. WEAK WINDS THROUGHOUT THE LOWER/MIDDLE WITH HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING THE MOST SIGNIFICANT HAZARD.
1054 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL RIDE ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE AREA TODAY. THE FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH AS A COLD FRONT INTO NORTH CAROLINA ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD SUNDAY AND MOVE OFF THE COAST SUNDAY NIGHT.
1023 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015 A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE HAS BEGUN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA ALLOWING FOR MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THIS HIGH WILL PROVIDE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY.
IT APPEARS THE WESTERLY FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS IS RESPONSIBLE FOR KEEPING MOST OF THE REGION DRY. /ISSUED 300 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/ A BROAD VIEW OF THE CONUS REVEALS AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES SOUTHWARD TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. WITH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH TAILING WESTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE VEERED WINDS AT THE LOWER LEVELS MAY BE HINDERING DEVELOPMENT THE FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST OF THE UPPER TROUGH YOU GO. WITH THE HIGHEST NEAR PARIS. AND THE LOWEST NEAR LAMPASAS. ISOLATED STORMS MAY PERSIST INTO THE NIGHT ACROSS THE EAST AND NORTHEAST COUNTIES WHERE LIFT FROM THE TROUGH WILL BE STRONGEST.
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 80 69 82 68 / 80 70 70 50 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 79 67 80 66 / 80 70 70 60 OAK RIDGE, TN 79 67 80 66 / 70 60 70 50 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 79 65 77 63 / 70 50 70 60 NC.
1209 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS TO OUR SOUTH TODAY AND COULD BRING A STRAY SHOWER TO THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY AND SOUTHWEST NEW HAMPSHIRE TODAY. A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRY WEATHER AND GRADUALLY WARMING CONDITIONS THROUGH MIDWEEK. ANOTHER PASSING TROUGH WILL BRING THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN MIDWEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND. UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST AND IS REPLACED BY AN UPPER RIDGE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE. AS THE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMING ALOFT AND EVENTUALLY AT THE SURFACE AS WELL.
623 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015 A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE COVERED THE FORECAST AREA AT 07Z. A SHORT WAVE TROF IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO MN THIS EVENING. THE SHORT WAVE TROF MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. MOISTURE INCREASES OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE REGION WHILE A SFC TROF BISECTS THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST BASICALLY NORTH OF U. AN H85 LLJ INTERSECTS THE TROF AS SOME UPPER DIVERGENCE ARRIVES WITH AN H25 JET MOVING THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS NEAREST THIS JUNCTION IN THE NW CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA.
WITH THE HIGHEST THREAT AREA SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR.
914 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015 SHOWER CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH TODAY AS AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE TROUGH SLIDES EASTWARD. BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL ENSURE A DRY AND SEASONABLY WARM SUNDAY.
THIS WILL KEEP DAYTIME TEMPERATURES COOLER THAN AVERAGE. AND SOME WERE SPIRALING AROUND AN AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE WELL OFF THE SOCAL COAST AS WELL. AND THE LOW APPROACHES THE COAST WITH INCREASING. THIS PATTERN ALSO FAVORS SOLID ONSHORE FLOW DEEP INTO THE INTERIOR FOR A DEEPER THAN AVERAGE MARINE LAYER AND COOLER THAN NORMAL DAYS.
757 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015 AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. USED THE COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE BECAUSE OF CLOUDINESS. UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY.
THE MORNING ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO REVEAL THE PERSISTENT PATTERN OF RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN STATES AND TROUGHING ACROSS THE EAST. THE PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD ALREADY PLACED THE HIGHEST POPS IN THIS GENERAL LOCATION.
1118 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015 AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN WILL SETTLE INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES LATER IN THE WEEKEND. MORNING WATER VAPOR AND H5 ANALYSIS DEPICT A SLIGHT EASTWARD SHIFT OF THE DOMINANT RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN RESIDING OVER THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN FOR THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. NOTED SPOTTY SHOWERS THIS AM BENEATH THE SHIFTING RIDGE AXIS OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL WASATCH FRONT/MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING.