Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Rather, the theme is steadily increasing temperatures beneath increasing high pressure aloft.
824 AM PDT Sun Jul 10 2022 A ridge of high pressure will dominate the weather, continuing seasonably hot conditions inland with mild conditions near the coast due to the marine layer.
High pressure strengthens beginning Monday, bringing warmer and drier conditions to North-central and Southwest Montana.
An upper level trough meanders over the area as a stalled front sits off the north-central Gulf Coast states. Heat index values should remain relatively tame today and Monday owing to the cooler forecast highs, however, they will still be in the 100 to 105 range.
209 PM CDT Sun Jul 10 2022 Sub-tropical ridging will dominate the forecast period with little in the way of meaningful weather. At the surface, hot and dry weather will persist into tomorrow with highs breaching 100 deg F area-wide as mixing heights soar into the mid-levels owing to a superadiabatic lapse rate profile from the surface-to-3-km beneath increasing subsidence from the anticyclone. A decreasingly baroclinic cold front will intrude the CWA late Monday night, reinforcing the easterly breeze which should knock temperatures down approximately 5 degrees mainly across the Caprock where the expansion/cooling of the parcels is best realized, while the Rolling Plains remains hot with highs upwards of 105 deg F.
Attention then turns to the northwest this evening as the cold front provides forcing to the area. Large scale ridging will return to the area this week across much of the CONUS.
High pressure brings dry weather tonight and Monday. Cooler and less humid for the end of the week. A high pressure system will build into the region and bring an end to any remaining showers later this afternoon. This high will then provide dry weather and light/calm winds overnight, allowing for cool temperatures. The high will continue to provide plenty of sunshine and dry weather on Monday, with high temperatures warming in comparison to this afternoon. Foggy start to the morning Monday, but dry with high pressure in control.
210 PM MDT Sun Jul 10 2022 19z surface analysis had low over far northeast SD with cold front south of the CWA into southern WY. It will drag a secondary cold front through the CWA overnight with a period of gusty northwest winds behind it, approaching advisory criteria in the squeeze zone just east of the Black Hills given forecast 3-5mb/3hr pressure rises and 35-40kt boundary layer flow. Along/behind cold front, 800-600mb frontogenesis combined with synoptic lift will support a band of SHRA/TS overnight.
254 PM CDT Sun Jul 10 2022 A low pressure system is currently situated over northeast South Dakota.
303 PM CDT Sun Jul 10 2022 Current surface analysis places frontal boundary pushing through eastern North Dakota, with cooler and a bit drier air pushing in behind the feature. Upper level analysis places broad high pressure over the southern plains, with active westerly flow over our area. On Monday, a cooler and drier day is on tap over the area as ridging develops to the west. Dry with a warming trend through mid-week as upper ridge meanders to the east.
High pressure will wobble around the Four Corners area this week and will continue to circulate more moisture over Arizona with increasing chances for daily shower and thunderstorm activity.
With the upper level ridge building in over the region, we can expect temperatures to increase tomorrow.
959 PM EDT Sun Jul 10 2022 High pressure remains over the region on Monday.
High pressure strengthens over Central Montana beginning Monday, bringing in warmer and drier conditions.
Upper trough has brought relatively cool, dry, breezy weather to our CWA today. The trough will exit east tonight.
High pressure will remain control of our weather through Monday.
612 PM CDT Sun Jul 10 2022 A low pressure system is currently situated over northeast South Dakota.
735 PM EDT Sun Jul 10 2022 High pressure brings dry weather tonight and Monday. Another front mid week followed by high pressure. A high pressure system will build into the region and bring an end to any remaining showers later this afternoon. This high will then provide dry weather and light/calm winds overnight, allowing for cool temperatures. The high will continue to provide plenty of sunshine and dry weather on Monday, with high temperatures warming in comparison to this afternoon.
Current surface analysis places frontal boundary pushing through eastern North Dakota, with cooler and a bit drier air pushing in behind the feature. Upper level analysis places broad high pressure over the southern plains, with active westerly flow over our area. On Monday, a cooler and drier day is on tap over the area as ridging develops to the west. Dry with a warming trend through mid-week as upper ridge meanders to the east.
925 PM EDT Sun Jul 10 2022 High pressure to the north will build into the area tonight and early Monday.
(This afternoon through Monday night) Radar is showing isolated storms are starting in the Davis Mountains however the influence of the encroaching upper level high is being felt with less area coverage that should remain farther west. The moves even closer tomorrow, increasing subsidence enough that temperatures edge up into the lower portion of Heat Advisory criteria.
The strong upper ridge will strengthen slightly tomorrow. Very hot conditions again expected Monday as high pressure aloft continues.
/issued 209 PM CDT Sun Jul 10 2022/ Sub-tropical ridging will dominate the forecast period with little in the way of meaningful weather. At the surface, hot and dry weather will persist into tomorrow with highs breaching 100 deg F area-wide as mixing heights soar into the mid-levels owing to a superadiabatic lapse rate profile from the surface-to-3-km beneath increasing subsidence from the anticyclone. A decreasingly baroclinic cold front will intrude the CWA late Monday night, reinforcing the easterly breeze which should knock temperatures down approximately 5 degrees mainly across the Caprock where the expansion/cooling of the parcels is best realized, while the Rolling Plains remains hot with highs upwards of 105 deg F.
/issued 236 PM CDT Sun Jul 10 2022/ SHORT TERM (Now through Monday Night): High pressure remains in control with no real change in the forecast. Temperatures will remain above normal, with highs generally in the 100s and slightly cooler temperatures along the coast.
Ridge will remain centered near the intersect of CO/OK/NM/TX today with moisture levels still slightly below average for this time of year. On Monday the ridge will split with a western center over northern AZ/southern UT. With ridge to the north, flow will shift to the east to northeast on Monday.
A low pressure system is currently situated over northeast South Dakota.
Forcing in the low levels has allowed for storms to redevelop and while storms have remained weak with very little wind and mostly just heavy rains. We'll have more synoptic forcing with the 500mb trough as it approaches the area with a wave of positive vorticity advection ahead of it that moves in for Monday afternoon.
656 PM CDT Sun Jul 10 2022 (This afternoon through Monday Night) Quiet day so far across the mid state, with cloud cover still hanging around on the Plateau thanks to the upper trough still off to our southeast. Some showers and a few thunderstorms will be possible in the far east/southeast this afternoon as the trough continues to progress to the south and east of the area. Overnight lows will be in the 60s across the mid state tonight and temps will hit the low to mid 90s Monday, but dewpoints will likely be in the upper 60s, so it will be slightly cooler than what we felt last week.
High pressure will lead to warmer weather on Monday.
535 PM CDT Sun Jul 10 2022 Surface observations early this afternoon show a range of steamy conditions from temperatures in the mid 80s to mid 90s with dew points largely in the lower 70s. Mixing into much warmer air aloft will keep dangerous heat index readings ranging from the 90s to well over 100 across the region through early evening. By Monday evening, the passing upper trough has given way to cooler, drier northwest flow aloft.
Monday, a cold front will move through the region during the day. An upper ridge builds over the western CONUS through mid-week, shifting to the east, over the Central Plains.
748 PM EDT Sun Jul 10 2022 High pressure will keep clear skies over the area into Monday.
528 PM MDT Sun Jul 10 2022 19z surface analysis had low over far northeast SD with cold front south of the CWA into southern WY. It will drag a secondary cold front through the CWA overnight with a period of gusty northwest winds behind it, approaching advisory criteria in the squeeze zone just east of the Black Hills given forecast 3-5mb/3hr pressure rises and 35-40kt boundary layer flow. Along/behind cold front, 800-600mb frontogenesis combined with synoptic lift will support a band of SHRA/TS overnight.
Latest surface analysis reveals 1021mb high pressure stretched across the Great Lakes while 10/12Z upper air analysis shows an expansive 598dm 5H area of high pressure over the SW and central CONUS with ridging extending over the OH Valley. GOES-16 satellite depicts mostly clear skies over southern Indiana and central KY while regional observations report temperatures in the low to mid 80s as of 10/18Z. High pressure will retreat eastward allowing for return flow. The medium range portion of the forecast begins with a broad subtropical mid-level high anchored over the Southwest US and anomalous ridge axis extending towards the Pacific Northwest into Canada. At the same time, a weak surface cold front will advance from the Midwest towards the Ohio Valley which will support afternoon showers and storms chances mainly in south-central Kentucky.
The presence of a stalled frontal boundary/trough across North FL is helping to generate scattered showers and a few embedded lightning storms this evening.
GOES-16 Satellite trends indicate an upper level trough over the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys trying to build towards the Northern Gulf Coast with clear skies present across the Mid-South this evening. Thankfully, the lower dewpoint air has made the slightly cooler temperatures more tolerable than the past several days. /issued 310 PM CDT Sun Jul 10 2022/ Following last evening's cold frontal passage, the Midsouth experienced a break from the recent extended hot streak. Today's 1 PM temps were cooler than yesterday by up to 5 degrees over east AR and west TN.
907 PM EDT Sun Jul 10 2022 High pressure will keep clear skies over the area into Monday.
(The rest of tonight) Another cooler night on tap for the forecast area with lower dewpoints in place. (Tomorrow through Sunday) Hotter weather will overspread the area Monday ahead of a weak cold front, with afternoon temperatures reaching near or above the century mark in many places.
725 PM EDT Sun Jul 10 2022 High pressure remains over the region on Monday.
Attention then turns to the northwest this evening as the cold front provides forcing to the area. Large scale ridging will return to the area this week across much of the CONUS. Winds have shifted to the northwest and a period of gusty winds should develop during the daytime period Monday well behind the cold front (after it passes later tonight).
Low-level forcing is also likely being aided by the vicinity to the upper-level trough, now situated over the NE Gulf. Lows look to remain on the high side, with upper 70s to low 80s and dewpoints in the 70s sure to make it feel pretty steamy to kick off the day again tomorrow; complements of WSW flow temperature and moisture advection from the Gulf.
Upper level troughing will be over the eastern US through much of the week keeping the chance of showers and thunderstorms each day. The convergence in the area appears to weakening and the synoptic lift appears to be shifting east associated with short wave trough moving into west/central SC. Temperatures in the upper 60s north to the low 70s south.
1021 PM EDT Sun Jul 10 2022 Currently - The Keys reside on the far western end of a surface through lower level Atlantic ridge. Expect overnight lows to be in the lower 80s with dew points in the mid 70s. The western end of an Atlantic ridge extends into Keys waters.
650 PM CDT Sun Jul 10 2022 For the 00Z TAFs, a weak cold front is forecast to move across KGUY and KDHT early Monday afternoon with winds becoming north to northeast at both sites. /Issued 205 PM CDT Sun Jul 10 2022/ Currently the combined OK/TX Panhandles are falling under weak flow aloft from a broad area of high pressure. An upper level trough will traverse the northern CONUS and southern Canada today and tonight, and is progged to be into the Upper Midwest by tomorrow night.
/issued 310 PM CDT Sun Jul 10 2022/ Following last evening's cold frontal passage, the Midsouth experienced a break from the recent extended hot streak. Today's 1 PM temps were cooler than yesterday by up to 5 degrees over east AR and west TN.
715 PM EDT Sun Jul 10 2022 High pressure will keep clear skies over the area into Monday.
317 AM CDT Mon Jul 11 2022 A broad ridge remains centered over the Southern Rockies early this morning, ending east into the Ozarks.
Most of the activity favored our western waters and the Lower Keys. Winds overnight remained generally south to southwest as we lie on the extreme western periphery of the subtropical ridge axis. Despite the lack of clouds and light winds, temperatures held in the lower 80s. A mid level trough is moving south into the northern Gulf coast this morning. This in combination with our location to the subtropical ridge axis will result in light and at times variable winds today and tonight.
Frontal zone will weaken across the area this period, as high pressure builds to the southeast.
207 AM EDT Mon Jul 11 2022 Cool high pressure will weaken and drift off the Middle Atlantic coast through tonight.
With upper ridging holding on over the Tennessee Valley and a mostly dry atmosphere, we can expect sunshine and warm temperatures today.
Unsettled weather will return through the midweek as a cold front enters the area. Temps will start out just below 70 and will warm into the low to mid 80s.
Along with new declines in PWATs today thanks to drier NE flow aloft around the high, widespread highs at or above 100 remain on tap.
219 AM MDT Mon Jul 11 2022 Upper air ridge of high pressure will move eastward over the Northern Rockies during this period. The ridge will bring dry weather under clear to mostly clear skies.
Upper level troughing will be over the eastern US through much of the week keeping the chance of showers and thunderstorms each day. Temperatures in the upper 60s north to the low 70s south.
335 AM EDT Mon Jul 11 2022 Cool high pressure will weaken and drift off the Middle Atlantic coast through tonight.
Currently, a cold front is located from near Butte to Valentine to just south of Gordon and is slowly pushing southward. As a consequence, highs climb into the low/mid- 80s this afternoon, which is slightly below average for this time of year. For tonight, surface ridging spills into the area from the west. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are possible off the high terrain by late afternoon. After a brief cooldown of temperatures into the 80s and low 90s, the heat builds back in as high pressure settles back into the region.
Highs today will range in the middle 90s, with the highest heat indices being around 100-105 degrees. Lows tonight will bottom out in the lower 70s for most areas.
316 AM EDT Mon Jul 11 2022 Discussion/Marine --Showers/storms possible today-- Latest sfc analysis shows a cold front stretching from northwest WI southwest to eastern NE. This area has a little more going for it in that the cold front will be moving across Lake Michigan around this time.
Upper level troughing will be over the eastern US through much of the week keeping the chance of showers and thunderstorms each day. Highs should only be in the low to mid 80s for much of the area.
332 AM CDT Mon Jul 11 2022 - A cold front swings through today, possibly bringing the only real chance of precipitation this week.
259 AM MDT Mon Jul 11 2022 High pressure will be located over Central Montana today, bringing in warmer and drier conditions.
1158 PM CDT Sun Jul 10 2022 (The rest of tonight) Another cooler night on tap for the forecast area with lower dewpoints in place. (Tomorrow through Sunday) Hotter weather will overspread the area Monday ahead of a weak cold front, with afternoon temperatures reaching near or above the century mark in many places.
This activity is likely to limit the heating ahead of the cold front arriving this afternoon, any lingering cloud cover will assure this even if the storms dissipate before arrival. By 4 PM, winds will have switched to northwest in all areas, and the cold front will have arrived. Tonight, with dry air moving back into the region, lows should fall back into the lower 60s with comfortable dewpoints in the upper 50s.
329 AM EDT Mon Jul 11 2022 High pressure will keep it fair today and much of tonight.
914 PM PDT Sun Jul 10 2022 A ridge of high pressure will dominate the weather this week, continuing hot weather inland, with mild conditions near the coast due to a shallow marine layer.
137 AM EDT Mon Jul 11 2022 High pressure remains over the region on Monday.
117 AM EDT Mon Jul 11 2022 High pressure brings dry weather Monday.
149 AM EDT Mon Jul 11 2022 High pressure will keep clear skies over the area into Monday.
Slightly cooler temperatures are expected through the remainder of the week, as shower and thunderstorm activity becomes widespread each day. Slightly warmer than normal-temperatures are expected overnight tonight under partly to mostly cloudy skies. Showers and thunderstorms re-develop over the high terrain during the early afternoon hours on Monday, with coverage increasing through the afternoon and evening. The greatest coverage in storms is expected to be mainly over the higher terrain east of Flagstaff (eastern Mogollon Rim, White Mountains, Black Mesa, and Chuska Mountains). High pressure will wobble around the Four Corners area this week and will continue to circulate more moisture over Arizona with increasing chances for daily shower and thunderstorm activity.
333 AM EDT Mon Jul 11 2022 High pressure brings dry weather Monday.
404 AM EDT Mon Jul 11 2022 Cooler and drier air will filter in today under high pressure.
The meteorology supporting the excessive heat is a very strong low level thermal ridge and abundant sunshine which will make the heat feel more intense.
Once this advance batch moves through some isolated to scattered showers and possibly thunder expected across the northern zones overnight in area of warm advection/isentropic ascent in modest moisture return ahead of cold front back in Minnesota. Not much confidence in details for convection on Monday except the general idea that storms should fire up late afternoon/early evening ahead of the surface cold front with the potential for linear convection developing across southern Lower Michigan. Rather, the theme is steadily increasing temperatures beneath increasing high pressure aloft. The lower atmosphere is very dry and so we're not seeing much pcpn, nor lower clouds develop. A cold front will approach later Monday and we may see some showers/storms develop late in the day and the evening.
1245 AM EDT Mon Jul 11 2022 High pressure remains over the region on Monday.
CD Chattanooga Airport, TN 89 72 92 73 88 / 20 0 20 20 70 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 90 71 92 72 88 / 10 0 20 30 50 Oak Ridge, TN 90 71 92 71 88 / 10 0 20 30 50 Tri Cities Airport, TN 87 66 89 69 84 / 10 0 30 30 50.
Pleasant day in store as high pressure settles in. Upper level ridge over the Rockies will result in hot/dry conditions through the end of the week.
403 AM EDT Mon Jul 11 2022 High pressure remains over the region on Monday.
1121 PM MDT Sun Jul 10 2022 19z surface analysis had low over far northeast SD with cold front south of the CWA into southern WY. It will drag a secondary cold front through the CWA overnight with a period of gusty northwest winds behind it, approaching advisory criteria in the squeeze zone just east of the Black Hills given forecast 3-5mb/3hr pressure rises and 35-40kt boundary layer flow. Along/behind cold front, 800-600mb frontogenesis combined with synoptic lift will support a band of SHRA/TS overnight.
This activity will diminish to the east later this morning as the trough axis moves out. This will lead to sunny sky and below normal temperatures with highs in the mid 70s to the lower 80s. Areas east of the highway 83 corridor could see sustained winds in the 20 to 25 mph range and gusts to 35 mph.
320 AM CDT Mon Jul 11 2022 An area of high pressure will allow for tranquil weather to start the week. Abundant sunshine can be expected on Monday with highs in the low to mid 90s.
Once this advance batch moves through some isolated to scattered showers and possibly thunder expected across the northern zones overnight in area of warm advection/isentropic ascent in modest moisture return ahead of cold front back in Minnesota. Not much confidence in details for convection on Monday except the general idea that storms should fire up late afternoon/early evening ahead of the surface cold front with the potential for linear convection developing across southern Lower Michigan. Rather, the theme is steadily increasing temperatures beneath increasing high pressure aloft.
129 AM EDT Mon Jul 11 2022 High pressure brings dry weather Monday.
342 AM CDT Mon Jul 11 2022 Fairly widespread convection has developed across the region very early this morning as an upper level trough pushes through the western Dakotas. Otherwise, CAMs are indicating showers and isolated thunderstorms tracking southward across the area through mid to late morning as the upper level trough moves eastward and midlevel frontogenesis drops to the south. With cold air advection, temperatures will be much more tolerable today with highs in the lower to mid 80s. The upper level trough will push into the Upper Mississippi Valley region by tonight, putting our area in a northwesterly upper level flow.
Also adjusted wind gusts to raise them behind convection and cold front moving through the area. Arthur For this afternoon, an upper trough axis will approach the Northern Rockies from the west. This trough will bring weak large- scale ascent that will facilitate scattered showers and thunderstorms over south central Montana and north central Wyoming this afternoon then over much of south central-southeast Montana and north central Wyoming this evening. So, a few storms could be severe in the highlighted area with quarter-size hail and 60 mph wind gusts. Tonight, the upper trough will move eastward out of Montana and an upper ridge will move in from the west.
A strong ridge of high pressure will develop over the Rocky Mountains and Great Basin this week. The ridge strengthens and amplifies into the Northern Rockies. Temperatures will be around 10 degrees above normal with actual high temps in the mid 90s to low 100s in the lower valleys in central Idaho.
A cold frontal passage is likely on Tuesday. Short range models are in disagreement with timing of cold front, but this will inherently have consequences when it pertains to strength of convection. With warm and moist advection, it appears the most likely result of the cold frontal passage will be early to mid- morning thunderstorms that contain elevated convection, and an isolated thunderstorm in the afternoon.
/issued 317 AM CDT Mon Jul 11 2022/ A broad ridge remains centered over the Southern Rockies early this morning, ending east into the Ozarks. This will amplify the synoptic pattern over the northern tier states, shifting the ridge west and developing a trough over the northeast quadrant of the CONUS. Meanwhile, the upper-level trough currently extending through the Carolinas into the Gulf of Mexico will result in a cut-off low over the next few days. Dewpoints in the low/mid 60s this afternoon will limit the heat index, keeping most areas below 100F.