Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Though dew points should mix out somewhat this afternoon, with the forecast heat and mugginess do have areas of heat index values exceeding 100 degrees with the highest values north of Highway 20 and particularly along and north of Highway 12. An upper level trof moves through Monday night into early Tuesday. As for temperatures on Tuesday, did lower temperatures as the combination of the frontal boundary and rainfall should keep temperatures on the cooler side. The SREF, GFS and NAM all hint at cooler 850 temps moving in during daytime heating with 850 temps dropping to around 14 to 15 degrees, thus lowered temperature into the lower to mid 80s.
The weak upper low over the central Gulf Coast will drift northward through the day, providing some weak lift for scattered showers and storms, especially across the western half of the CWA.
154 PM CDT Mon Jul 5 2021 An area of high pressure continues to exert influence over the region, keeping the sensible weather warm and dry through Tuesday. Temperatures will continue to increase a couple degrees each day from the warm air advection into the region along southerly low level flow on the back side of the high.
On Tuesday ridging builds back in, which will mark the return of warmer and drier conditions.
355 PM EDT Mon Jul 5 2021 Hot and humid conditions will continue as a broad area of high pressure will be found over the southern Ohio and Tennessee Valleys through Tuesday.
Much of the same will occur Tuesday under high pressurem, plenty of sun and hot temperatures.
222 PM CDT Mon Jul 5 2021 Upper high pressure remains overhead, giving us dry conditions and sunny skies.
417 PM EDT Mon Jul 5 2021 High pressure will extend over our area through Tuesday.
On Tuesday, will have a possibility for additional showers and thunderstorms, with the higher chances across our southeastern counties and mainly during the afternoon.
155 PM MDT Mon Jul 5 2021 A few isolated thunderstorms will be possible through tonight over the area, while drier and warmer temperatures move into the area for Tuesday.
Ridge of high pressure begins to amplify on Tuesday.
330 PM CDT Mon Jul 5 2021 The forecast area currently sits under the influence of a expansive upper level ridge axis which encompasses much of the contiguous forty- eight. AT the surface, a cold front is noted east off the High Plains and into the Dakotas.
1013 AM MDT Mon Jul 5 2021 A cooler airmass from Canada will provide a break in recent heat today across North-central Montana.
This will help more cloudiness to spread N overnight & higher sfc dewpoints in the low 70s. Lows will remain near normal in the low 70s. A broad upper low over the TX coast & areas of PV in the region will help convection to spread W-NW. Shear will be subtle but 500mb temps could be slightly cooler, leading to a little better lapse rates. Heat will be a little less due increasing convective coverage, but warmer in the west.
Upper troughing extends from New England to south Texas.
For the reminder of the week, the challenge is the models latching onto the "ring of fire" pattern with the western CONUS ridge and waves riding over the top.
1155 AM MDT Mon Jul 5 2021 Aviation Section Updated A cooler airmass from Canada will provide a break in recent heat today across North-central Montana.
1145 AM EDT Mon Jul 5 2021 Dry high pressure over the region will weaken today and Tuesday.
135 PM EDT Mon Jul 5 2021 High pressure along with drier air will remain over the region through early Tuesday keeping mostly clear skies and light winds in place. Dry airmass remains in place across the area with PWATs generally around an inch and dew points expected to remain in the low 60s most of the day. Tonight, a 15-20 kt southerly low level jet develops early across the area which will further help increase moisture in the low levels.
Much of the same will occur Tuesday under high pressure with plenty of sun and hot temperatures.
On Tuesday, will have a possibility for additional showers and thunderstorms, with the higher chances across our southeastern counties and mainly during the afternoon. (Tuesday night through next Monday) Shower and thunderstorms chances decrease midweek as the 4 corners upper ridge extends eastwards across Oklahoma and North Texas. This weekend, shower and thunderstorm increase again as a weak cold front moves through. The low clouds should lift to VFR by the early afternoon.
As high pressure aloft becomes centered over the Great Basin and the air mass dries more, daytime temperatures will be warming up this week.
A broad area of high pressure is covering Middle Tennessee this evening.
615 PM CDT Mon Jul 5 2021 An area of high pressure continues to exert influence over the region, keeping the sensible weather warm and dry through Tuesday. Temperatures will continue to increase a couple degrees each day from the warm air advection into the region along southerly low level flow on the back side of the high.
/issued 228 PM CDT Mon Jul 5 2021/ SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday Night): Low pressure at 500mb rides south along the Rio Grande from the Big Bend to the RGV by Tuesday afternoon, with increasing moisture and light southeasterly surface flow.
925 PM EDT Mon Jul 5 2021 Hot and humid conditions will continue as a broad area of high pressure will be found over the southern Ohio and Tennessee Valleys through Tuesday.
The upper ridge in the southern Great Basin will intensify and expand northward bringing even hotter weather to our area Tuesday.
Otherwise, high pressure will strengthen over the coming week resulting in fewer storms and hot temperatures. High pressure is centered across the southwest today with enough moisture to fuel isolated to scattered thunderstorms. High pressure will amplify over the region through the remainder of the week centering from northern Arizona through southern Nevada and Utah. There will be enough moisture for isolated storms over the high terrain each afternoon, but storm threats will transition to dry lightning and gusty outflow winds and less so areas of heavy rainfall. In addition to the drying trend, temperatures will warm through the week reaching into the upper 80s/low 90s in the mountains and mid 90s/low 100s in the lower valleys.
A few isolated thunderstorms will be possible through tonight over the area, while drier and warmer temperatures move into the area for Tuesday.
Mostly clear skies will continue under a large high pressure ridge. Discussion: High pressure and subsidence should lead to a mostly clear sky again tonight with calm winds. Expect to see some afternoon cumulus and a very slight chance of isolated convection across the higher elevations. With continued ridging aloft and similar heights, a persistent forecast with temperatures similar to Monday are expected. Increasing chances for convection throughout the week as ridging is replaced with a series of upper troughs producing more unsettled weather is expected mid to late week.
934 PM EDT Mon Jul 5 2021 Surface Analysis this evening shows a large, extensive area of high pressure in place from Illinois across Indiana to the middle Atlantic States. Winds were light to calm across Central Indiana under the influence of the high pressure system. Upper ridging will persist through much of the period but will start to break down Tuesday night as troughing starts to push southward into the Great Lakes region. At the surface, the high will slowly push eastward starting tomorrow. Getting to convective temperatures would be more possible than the past couple days given the higher moisture and actual temps, but model soundings still show a relatively dry column.
06/00Z TAF CYCLE High pressure will continue to provide VFR conditions through the period.
700 PM EDT Mon Jul 5 2021 Hot and humid conditions will continue as a broad area of high pressure will be found over the southern Ohio and Tennessee Valleys through Tuesday.
Upper high pressure remains overhead, giving us dry conditions and sunny skies.
High pressure dominates for the next several days for hot and dry conditions.
As the core of the system makes its closest approach to to the Lower Keys near the Dry Tortugas overnight or near sunrise, sustained tropical storm force sustained winds are possible in the Lower Keys, with possible more frequent tropical storm force wind gusts in the Middle and Upper Keys. We recently issued a flood watch for the Lower and Middle Keys through tomorrow morning. This would be a response to strong confluent flow as Elsa pulls northwestward and a ridge tries to build in from the east.
736 PM EDT Mon Jul 5 2021 High pressure along with drier air will remain over the region through early Tuesday keeping mostly clear skies and light winds in place.
634 PM CDT Mon Jul 5 2021 The forecast area currently sits under the influence of a expansive upper level ridge axis which encompasses much of the contiguous forty- eight. AT the surface, a cold front is noted east off the High Plains and into the Dakotas.
919 PM CDT Mon Jul 5 2021 High pressure is continuing to promote tranquil conditions across the Tennessee Valley region this evening. This will result in a slightly warmer and more humid night as temperatures gradually drop into the upper 60s to lower 70s by early Tuesday morning. North of the river, highs in the lower 90s look reasonable, while further south mid to upper 80s look more likely.
934 PM CDT Mon Jul 5 2021 A nearly stationary W-E oriented frontal boundary has sagged south of the Highway 2 corridor this evening. Still expect some frontal overrunning precip up into the Highway 2 corridor and GF areas as well. Cooler Tuesday with highs mid 60s to low 70s.
206 AM EDT Tue Jul 6 2021 High pressure along with drier air will remain over the region through early Tuesday keeping mostly clear skies and light winds in place.
Highs today look to be a few degrees warmer with afternoon readings in the upper 80s to lower 90s and with dewpoints running in the mid and upper 60s will create a heat index in the low to mid 90s.
Frontal boundary now sliding north as a warm front and still expected to become diffuse and wash out within the next 24 hours. Elsa will remain to our east, while the trough remains in our west. For now will go with the highest PoPs associated with the trough in the south and west.
Current temperatures are in the low to middle 70s and winds are light. Similarly, water vapor indicates a few areas of broad cyclonic circulation within a larger trough along the Gulf Coast region. High pressure will continue to shift east today. Temperatures will be a little cooler across North MS where clouds and precip reside. Clouds and precip will keep daytime highs a few degrees cooler than we have seen, mainly in the middle to upper 80s.
Upper ridge currently over southwest CONUS the main concern for the rest of the week. Wednesday, upper ridge builds from the Rockies into the northern plains as low level thermal ridge expands northeastward. Ridge-rider likely late Wednesday tapping into 1-2KJ/kg MLCAPE, but MLCIN fairly stout for surface-based convection on the plains.
227 AM MDT Tue Jul 6 2021 Yesterday's trough is racing east across South Dakota this morning, with the H5 ridge shifting back west across UT/NV. This is setting up better ridging across our region for the short term, with northwesterly flow aloft. These areas will be close enough to the ridge that it will be tough for convection to stay together this afternoon. Wednesday will see another weak wave rotating around the northern periphery of the ridge.
High pressure will be exiting to the east allowing for winds to turn more to the East/Southeast but under 10 kts. 06/00Z TAF CYCLE High pressure will continue to provide VFR conditions through the period. The high has weakened a bit over the last 24 hours, allowing for an uptick in temps/humidity lvls as sfc winds have veered more to the SE.
1154 PM EDT Mon Jul 5 2021 Tropical Storm Warnings remain in effect for the Lower and Middle Keys. BYX radar shows the bulk of the rain associated with Elsa is entering the distant Straits of Florida south and southwest of the Lower Keys with additional rain bands pivoting to the northwest. In addition, sustained tropical storm force sustained winds are expected in the Lower Keys, with possible more frequent tropical storm force wind gusts in the Middle and Upper Keys. Atlantic ridge will build back in across the Florida Peninsula Tuesday night and Wednesday. This ridge will largely dictate the forecast for the balance of the week, with below normal rain chances and near-to or slightly above temperatures expected. Marine conditions will steadily improve Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday night, as a subtropical ridge builds across the Florida Peninsula.
After Tuesday, high pressure builds and dry and seasonable weather prevail. With a low pressure system approaching, winds will become northeast Tuesday afternoon and evening increasing to 15 to 20 knots with gusts to 25 knots.
HiRes guidance indicates any showers or thunderstorms that form will remain isolated, but the highest chances are in the Nebraska panhandle and higher elevations in southeast Wyoming. Conditions dry out by the afternoon as ridging aloft builds back in with a high pressure system to the southwest of the CWA. Wednesday a high pressure system will build over the region, creating warm and dry conditions and increasing fire weather concerns, especially for areas that have not received much precipitation recently west of the Laramie Range.
/NEW/ /Through Tuesday Night/ Abundant gulf moisture in place across much of the region and a weak upper trough situated along the Texas Coast will generate another round of scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms on Tuesday. A mid-level subtropical high will remain parked over the Desert Southwest, keeping North and Central Texas in a region of weak troughing. A pronounced upper low will dig into the Southern Plains late this week or early this weekend. Itâs possible this feature will dive far enough south to bring a mid-summer cold front into the region.
Confidence on how low and if DHT or GUY would join in the low clouds is low. More showers and thunderstorms will try to make a run at the western Panhandles this evening and overnight aided by orographic lift from the low level upslope flow and daytime instability. On Tuesday, an upper level short wave trough moving this way from Colorado and a cold front will team up to bring more showers and thunderstorms to the Panhandles late in the afternoon and overnight Tuesday night.
High pressure will build this week, increasing our temperatures and limiting any remaining showers and thunderstorms to mainly portions of eastern and central Arizona.
The subtropical ridge will be centered INVOF NV/NW AZ today thus a ne-n steering wind across W TX/SE NM.
After Tuesday, high pressure builds and dry and seasonable weather prevail. Initial VFR conditions will deteriorate overnight as a low pressure system moves into and across the area. With a low pressure system approaching, winds will become northeast Tuesday afternoon and evening increasing to 15 to 20 knots with gusts to 25 knots.
Surface Analysis this evening shows a large, extensive area of high pressure in place from Illinois across Indiana to the middle Atlantic States. Winds were light to calm across Central Indiana under the influence of the high pressure system. Upper ridging will persist through much of the period but will start to break down Tuesday night as troughing starts to push southward into the Great Lakes region. At the surface, the high will slowly push eastward starting tomorrow. Getting to convective temperatures would be more possible than the past couple days given the higher moisture and actual temps, but model soundings still show a relatively dry column.
Tonight into Wednesday, the low to mid level flow will eventually become southerly and start ushering in even more moisture to the area, as the remnants of Elsa move up into the southeastern coastal states. Meanwhile, a weak upper trough and associated weak front will be heading toward the area.
There is strong forcing along a cold front that is associated with an upper level trough axis, which will slide southeast across the forecast area this afternoon and evening. However, will continue to call for slightly cooler highs in the upper 80s across our northwest zones given the early development of storms and expanding clouds early in the afternoon across these northwestern zones. The big story will be the cooler temperatures behind the front with highs in the lower 80s.
151 AM EDT Tue Jul 6 2021 Hot and humid conditions will continue as a broad area of high pressure will be found over the southern Ohio and Tennessee Valleys through Tuesday.
As we get into the mid week, upper pattern should feature a large ridge over the western half of the US, and zonal westerlies just north of the Great Lakes. Wednesday looks to start off dry across the region, but with our region located on the western side of the retreating upper ridge, deeper southerly flow will help transport a richer airmass of Gulf moisture into our region. With rich moisture combined with afternoon diurnal heating and the nearing upper trough, should expect at least scattered showers and afternoon thunderstorms across the region. Forecast soundings reveal large CAPE profiles, but with rather weak flow through the low and mid levels, shear is weak enough to limit concern for severe or organized convection.
A nearly stationary W-E oriented frontal boundary has sagged south of the Highway 2 corridor this evening. Still expect some frontal overrunning precip up into the Highway 2 corridor and GF areas as well. Cooler Tuesday with highs mid 60s to low 70s.
1104 PM CDT Mon Jul 5 2021 An area of high pressure continues to exert influence over the region, keeping the sensible weather warm and dry through Tuesday. Temperatures will continue to increase a couple degrees each day from the warm air advection into the region along southerly low level flow on the back side of the high. MRM A mid-level trough will approach the mid-Mississippi Valley early Wednesday, dragging a weak surface cold front through the CWA Wednesday afternoon and into the overnight hours.
A few isolated thunderstorms will be possible through tonight over the area, while drier and warmer temperatures move into the area for Tuesday. A few storms will affect the region tonight, but drier and warmer conditions develop on Tuesday.
A slow-moving cold front will focus some convection this evening across central Lower Michigan and again on Tuesday. The front moves south on Wednesday and a surface wave of low pressure moves along it with some embedded storms, but severe weather is not expected. Winds will be a bit lower on Tuesday as the sfc pressure trough sags south and waves should remain in the 2 to 4 foot range.
A weak upper level disturbance and associated cold front will force this convection, with storm motions from west to east.
Looking aloft, broad ridging continues across much of the country, with modest zonal flow along the northern tier or two of states. This includes one that will glance the region tonight into tomorrow, pushing a cold front through. However the more progressive nature of the front and cross-boundary storm motion will keep the flash flooding threat on the lower end as well. Temperatures here should warm back into the low 90s, while staying in the upper 80s farther east across northeast and east-central Kansas.
/Today through Wednesday/ Broad upper-level trough across the western Gulf of Mexico extending into Louisiana to support increased instability across the region through the short-term period. Afternoon high temperatures forecast to climb into the lower 90s both days. Overnight low temperatures tonight forecast to fall into the lower to middle 70s.
/Issued 107 AM CDT Tue Jul 6 2021/ /Through Tuesday Night/ Abundant gulf moisture in place across much of the region and a weak upper trough situated along the Texas Coast will generate another round of scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms on Tuesday.
Southerly winds east of the low with dewpoints in the mid 50s to 61 at Torrington east of the Laramie Range. a cold front is being analyzed across southern Montana near the Wyoming state line. High pressure builds back into the area with warmer temperatures and increased concerns for critical fire weather.
The low level winds veer off pretty quickly around 2-3am though so a diminishing trend should start to show. Lingering showers/isolated storms may delve into Wednesday morning, but cooler and clearing weather is expected by afternoon.
434 AM EDT Tue Jul 6 2021 Warm and humid weather can be expected until a cold front approaches Wednesday and increases rain chance across the region through the end of the week. Development should be confined to the weak forcing to the northeast and along the ridges where orographic assistance will prove enough for development. Any lingering fog or cloud cover will make for some warm low temps in the lower 70s. A deepening trough over the western Great Lakes will promote more southwesterly flow for the upper Ohio River Valley Wednesday, shunting the ridge farther southeast. The trough and its associated sfc cold front will slowly progress east through the end of the week, promoting increased precipitation chances and moderating of temperature.
357 AM EDT Tue Jul 6 2021 Warm and humid weather can be expected until a cold front approaches Wednesday and increases rain chance across the region through the end of the week. Development should be confined to the weak forcing to the northeast and along the ridges where orographic assistance will prove enough for development. Any lingering fog or cloud cover will make for some warm low temps in the lower 70s. A deepening trough over the western Great Lakes will promote more southwesterly flow for the upper Ohio River Valley Wednesday, shunting the ridge farther southeast. The trough and its associated sfc cold front will slowly progress east through the end of the week, promoting increased precipitation chances and moderating of temperature.
There are a few weaker cyclonic circulations noted on the water vapor loop within a broad trough axis from the Arklatex to the central Gulf Coast. This moisture will increase over the next 24-36 hrs as the cyclonic flow around this broad trough advects modified tropical air into the region, with PWATs approaching 2. More clouds and precip with the modified tropical airmass with result in slightly cooler temps with highs mainly in the 80s. Humidity levels, however, will return to typical summertime levels areawide with dewpoints in the lower to perhaps some mid 70s.
308 AM CDT Tue Jul 6 2021 Upper level ridge continues to remain to the west of the forecast area today. Temperatures will be very similar to yesterday with high temperatures topping out in the low to mid 80's. /WCI Convective activity will be on the downward trend by Wednesday as the upper high to our west begins to build eastward. Overall temps will remain in check ask the center of the upper high will remain well to our west and surface moisture will continue to remain abundant.
Mostly clear skies will continue under a large high pressure ridge. VFR conditions expected through the period as high pressure dominates, with the only possible exception being MVFR fog at TRI Tuesday morning. CDG Chattanooga Airport, TN 91 71 87 71 85 / 10 20 70 60 80 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 93 70 88 70 86 / 10 10 60 50 80 Oak Ridge, TN 92 69 88 69 85 / 10 10 60 40 70 Tri Cities Airport, TN 90 66 88 66 84 / 10 10 40 30 70.
Low pressure aloft continues to meander about the Lower Mississippi River Valley. A warm front also remains draped across central portions of the the CWA. The resulting spread of deep moisture across the CWA, in addition to daytime heating, and the aforementioned warm front and weakness aloft over the region, will all aid in the development of showers and storms across the CWA this afternoon. Temperatures will remain rather warm, as highs range from the middle 80s east to the lower 90s west.