Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1042 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016 06Z TAF Cycle A Pacific cold front will push across the three TAF sites between 06Z and 10Z Friday bringing west to northwest winds 5 to 15 knots which will become northwest to north 10 to 20 knots after 20Z to 23Z Friday. /Issued 609 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016/ 00Z TAF Cycle A dryline will remain across the eastern Panhandles this evening as a cold front pushes south and east across the three TAF sites around 05Z to 08Z Friday. Southwesterly winds 15 to 25 knots with higher gusts will veer around to the west 5 to 15 knots following the passage of the cold front later tonight.
Minimal day-to-day change expected through the period as the forecast area remains parked under a eastern CONUS ridge. Temperatures will be 10 to 15 degrees above seasonal levels with dewpoints in the low to mid 60s.
Subsidence in the wake of an upper level trough that is moving toward north central Texas seems to be squashing vertical development of the cumulus. Will thus maintain the highest chances across the southern Rolling Plains with a tight gradient to slight chance to the north and west and most areas on the caprock maintaining no precip mention. The upper low that is in large part responsible for today's storms will move onto the high plains of Colorado and Kansas tonight and early Friday. The weekend will start off warm but rather nice as the upper low passes off to our east.
Upper level ridge over the region will keep convection west but we should see increasing mid and high level cloud cover spilling into the forecast area tonight which will provide for warmer overnight lows than we've experience lately. Forecast appears on track with forecasted lows bottoming out in the low 70s along coastal areas and mid to upper 60s at more interior locations. Very little change in the overall pattern through Friday as an upper level ridge axis remains across the area. This will maintain the hot and dry conditions with occasional bouts of mid and high clouds spilling over the ridge. Coastal areas will likely bottom out in the low 70s.
some additional storms may form over western oklahoma and western north texas late tonight as mid and upper level forcing increases ahead of an approaching mid/upper low. Weak height falls will overspread the Panhandles late this afternoon and evening in advance of a trough over Colorado/New Mexico.
This activity will remain west of the area overnight as mid level ridging and slightly drier air aloft remains dominant over Central Alabama. As a result of this added cloud cover and a warmer hourly temp trend, will bump overnight lows up a couple degrees in most locations.
High pressure will extend over the area through Friday. The approach of another disturbance (responsible for the convection crossing the lower oh valley this afternoon) may trigger a few showers overnight across the far northwest-northern Piedmont. The continued modification of the low level atmosphere along with patchy mid level cloudiness will support mild overnight temperatures. A narrow ridge of high pressure aloft will extend west-east across central NC. The main forecast concern for this period continues to be the potential tropical/sub-tropical development of an area of low pressure between the Bahamas and Bermuda this weekend. The upper level ridge responsible for the recent quiet weather will break down as the coastal low develops. To the west, an upper level trough will linger for the weekend.
Severe thunderstorms can also be expected north of a warm front/stationary front that will extend from roughly Garden City to Dodge City to around the Larned areas. On Friday an upper level trough will cross the West Central High Plains and a cold front will drop south into western Kansas. Scattered thunderstorms are also possible late day and into the overnight period north of the cold front as it drops south out into southwest Kansas. Highs south of the cold front still look to be warm and should range from 80 to 85 degrees. northwest of this front highs will average close to 10 degrees cooler.
Models continue to hint that warm front will drift far enough north into Iowa to keep south primed for severe most of evening and potentially overnight as the front lifts north and warm air advection increases along/above the boundary. may reach that mark in some cases if MCS congeals over west/southwest this evening and then becomes rooted into the warm front. Other less affected areas will remain warmer. At onset the current Four Corners long wave trough will be on the move crossing the Plains later in the day tomorrow. Model instability projections vary from 1500-3500 j/kg with the Nam on the higher end of that range.
445 PM PDT THU MAY 26 2016 The arrival of a cold front tonight will bring cooler and breezy conditions for the Memorial Day weekend, along with a good chance for showers over the Idaho Panhandle and the mountainous portions of Washington.
Made some adjustments, especially to pops, for the rest of tonight as ridging surface/aloft covers the area. The upper flow will transition from the weak short wave ridging to southerly as a deeper trough moves east into the Northern Plains to the southern plains.
Surface dew points were in the lower 70s and mlcapes were near 3000 on the south side of the boundary. The qpf forecasts of the lower res models such as the gfs have been almost worthless in this moist southwest flow regime.
932 PM EDT THU MAY 26 2016 Atlantic high pressure will prevail through Friday.
Not as warm today but still quite humid with heat index readings topping out in the lower 90s in a few locations. Still could see a few storms push into our far northwest late this aftn and early this evng as the disturbance over eastern TX continues to lift northeast eroding the western portions of the ridge. Over the next few days the ridge over the southeastern CONUS will slowly build back over the region with very slim rain chances each day and most likely rain free.
945 PM EDT THU MAY 26 2016 Bermuda High pressure will remain across the region through the weekend.
738 PM EDT THU MAY 26 2016 High pressure will remain over the forecast area through Friday. Moisture will increase over the weekend associated with low pressure nearing the southeast coast. Models continue to show surface ridging coming on off the Atlantic. This low will track westward through the period.
That being said, another area of low pressure presently over the four corners region will lift north-northeast toward this area by morning on Friday, bringing precipitation chances with it for areas mainly east of the Missouri River valley.
Low pressure will track northeastward across the central Plains allowing rain and thunderstorm chances to continue through Friday. Rain and abundant cloud cover will result in noticeably cooler temperatures Friday.
have continued to mention slight chance through the overnight hours as weak warm front continues to be draped across the region. Friday begins relatively calm and mild under the aforementioned upper ridge, and much like today expect some afternoon convection to break out as the stalled front to our south overnight shifts northeastward as a warm front.
Upper level low continues to pull away from the region this evening.
705 PM EDT THU MAY 26 2016 High pressure off the east coast will move little through the weekend.
703 PM EDT THU MAY 26 2016 High pressure over the southeast United States will result in continued southwesterly flow across the upper Ohio Valley through the holiday weekend.
High pressure over the region, along with a drier air mass, will keep the weather quiet, with VFR conditions.
838 PM EDT THU MAY 26 2016 High pressure will remain over the area through the end of the week.
The upper flow will transition from the weak short wave ridging to southerly as a deeper trough moves east into the Northern Plains to the southern plains.
Therefore, any surfaced based storm this afternoon or evening will have a chance to produce a tornado with a enhanced risk closer to the warm front/outflow, where winds will be slightly more backed, resulting in strong low level shear.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 67 86 66 87 / 20 20 20 20 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 66 86 65 86 / 10 20 20 20 Oak Ridge, TN 65 85 65 86 / 20 20 20 20 Tri Cities Airport, TN 61 86 61 86 / 20 30 20 20.
Friday looks to be more active across eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas as the upper level low currently over the Four Corners region ejects out into the plains.
Upper ridge axis is located just east of the eastern most portion of the convection. Nevertheless, cape values are on the high side and may have to watch for a few strong storms into early this evening. Still seeing a dissipating 18z cap and with the upper ridging pulling off to our east, low pops for convection will continue.
Will keep low POPs in NW zones as upper low moves across n central ND, but without decent heating today threat is minimal.
The threat of afternoon and evening thunderstorms exists primarily over the higher terrain of the southern Great Basin and Mojave Desert for the Memorial Day weekend.
834 PM EDT THU MAY 26 2016 Bermuda High pressure will remain across the region through the weekend.
801 PM MDT THU MAY 26 2016 Upper trof across South central Colorado with main precip shield over the Northeast plains of Colorado. models do show some redevelopment of precip further West with some wrap around precip across the Low. An upper low moving into southwestern Colorado continues to provide good lift over the forecast area as moisture continues to stream in on northeasterly low level flow. As the upper low moves closer, storm motions will become slower, increasing the flooding threat. Rain and high elevation snow showers will continue Friday morning with a few thunderstorms possible as the upper low moves over eastern Colorado. Upper level low pressure system will move into the Central Plains Friday night.
Strengthening high pressure over the eastern Pacific and low pressure inland is bringing strong north winds and steep to very steep seas to most of the coastal waters area south of Cape Blanco.
Effective shear also around 30 kts which is on the low-end with the weak instability. LCLs are low enough around 1000m for brief spin up tornado due to the higher dwpnts around, but this is being offset by limited low-level shear which is well under 20 kts. Upper air pattern forecasted to be a trough in the Pacific NW and another trough in the central plains 00z Sat. There is also a broad 500 mb ridge over the ern U. This trough moves east into the Upper Great Lakes Sat night into Sun. In the extended, GFS and ECMWF show two broad 500 MB troughs across the western and eastern U. The trough over the western U.
High pressure will extend over the area through Friday. Convection associated with the lingering upper shear axis over western NC, caught/trapped with in the upper level ridge axis in place across the region has diminished with loss of heating. The continued modification of the low level atmosphere along with patchy mid level cloudiness will support mild overnight temperatures. A narrow ridge of high pressure aloft will extend west-east across central NC. The main forecast concern for this period continues to be the potential tropical/sub-tropical development of an area of low pressure between the Bahamas and Bermuda this weekend. The upper level ridge responsible for the recent quiet weather will break down as the coastal low develops. To the west, an upper level trough will linger for the weekend.
535 PM MDT THU MAY 26 2016 Longwave trough across the Intermountain West comprised of two low pressure areas. Satellite pix show one of these low pressures spinning into North Dakota, while the second one was beginning to lift northeast into Colorado from the four corners area. The low pressure area moves very little, located near the CO/KS stateline by Friday afternoon. Temperatures will be cooler Friday with highs only reaching into the 60s with perhaps a few 70s in the western Nebraska Panhandle. Cooler temperatures will keep any severe weather threat at bay for Friday.
1033 PM EDT THU MAY 26 2016 High pressure will remain over the forecast area through Friday. Moisture will increase over the weekend associated with low pressure nearing the southeast coast. Models continue to show surface ridging coming on off the Atlantic. This low will track westward through the period.
A low pressure system to our north had tightened pressure gradients across the area creating breezy to windy conditions today.
Highs in the mid 70s to low 80s, though some potential for cooler highs depending on precip coverage.
403 PM PDT THU MAY 26 2016 Scattered showers, and possibly an embedded thunderstorm or two, will be possible this afternoon and evening over the higher elevations of the Sierra Nevada.
1235 AM EDT FRI MAY 27 2016 Atlantic high pressure will prevail through Friday.
a closed low resides over over northeast montana and western North dakota. Behind this a meso- ridge resides over western Montana and southern Alberta. Farther West a large trough runs from the Oregon Coast northward into northern British Columbia. South of most of these feature zonal to southwest flow resides over the lower Intermountain West. The closed low over the area will tighten up this afternoon and then scurry northeastward during the evening hours leaving dry conditions by the early morning. the meso ridge to the west will move in Friday and begin clearing skies and partially warming the surface layer.
this is on the northeast side of the upper low. Will keep low POPs in NW zones as upper low moves across n central ND, but without decent heating today threat is minimal.
Aloft, a sharp ridge over the Gulf of Mexico and a trough over the Bahamas has a brought quite a lot of dry air aloft and subsidence above 750 mb. Short Term - Gentle northeast to east breezes will continue overnight due to ridging to our north. Gentle northeast to east breezes will prevail across Florida Keys waters due to ridging to our north.
821 PM EDT THU MAY 26 2016 High pressure will remain nearly stationary over the southeastern U. Temperatures will remain well above normal with highs in the lower or middle 80s and lows in the 60s. Opted to keep PoPs on the low side given low predictability of mesoscale features with synoptic scale support displaced well off to west-northwest.
The upper level low remains across the southwestern U. This afternoon a very unstable air mass has developed across the area as temperatures have warmed into the middle 80s with dew points in the lower 70s. Theta-E Difference are also on the high side with values of 30 to 40 Kelvin. Also, the high theta-E difference will lead to a damaging wind risk with wind gusts over 60 mph. Storms will continue to be possible on Friday as a wave tracks through the area ahead of the main upper level low. The main upper level low will remain west of the area on Friday and additional storms are expected to develop across western Kansas ahead of the main low.
/Issued 618 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016/ High pressure centered over Alabama will gradually weaken over the next several days as an upper trof over the central plains states shifts slightly eastward and an upper low lifts northwest towards the Carolinas.
942 PM EDT THU MAY 26 2016 High pressure will extend over the area from offshore through Friday night.
752 PM EDT THU MAY 26 2016 Weak disturbances aloft on backside of an upper level ridge.
1028 AM EDT Wed Apr 12 2017 Aviation section updated High pressure tracking through the Great Lakes will bring dry and mild weather through early Thursday.
830 AM EDT Wed Apr 12 2017 A weak cold front will move through our area this morning.
837 AM CDT Wed Apr 12 2017 Temp trends have begun to rebound nicely from their earlier lows this morning, with values now mainly in the lower/mid 60s compared to the mid 50s/near 60F a couple of hrs ago. Given little/any influx of cooler/drier air with this last front, seasonably warm conditions are again xpcted this afternoon, as high pressure quickly makes its way ewd across the OH Valley states. Clearing skies and light winds will help cool temperatures overnight into the lower 50s, though this is still roughly 5 degrees above normal.
A cold front will cross Utah late Thursday through Thursday night with precipitation associated with this feature mainly over northern Utah and southwest Wyoming. The eastern Pacific trough advancing toward the west coast will generate an increasingly strong and warm southerly flow across the area today through Thursday. A vorticity lobe rotating through the the southern end of the main eastern Pacific trough tonight will lift northeast through the northern/western Great Basin Thursday, followed by a secondary vorticity lobe Thursday night. This first lobe will nudge a strengthening cold front into northwest Utah Thursday afternoon. The increasing low-level southerly winds ahead of the cold front along with good mixing will result in strong southerly surface winds across the western valleys.
1032 AM EDT Wed Apr 12 2017 The cold front is now to the south and east of the forecast area with drier air advecting in from the northwest. Chattanooga Airport, TN 80 55 81 58 / 10 0 10 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 77 52 78 57 / 10 0 10 0 Oak Ridge, TN 77 52 80 57 / 10 0 10 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 75 48 77 50 / 10 10 10 10.
1207 PM EDT Wed Apr 12 2017 Dry conditions will prevail until the next low pressure system impacts the region this weekend. Daytime max temperatures will be slightly cooler. High pressure will support dry conditions and a warming trend in temperatures through the period. Minimal change made in the extended with only minor adjustments in warm and cold frontal timing.
1253 PM EDT Wed Apr 12 2017 Quiet weather is expected for today and tonight as a ridge of high pressure settles across the region. High temperatures today will range from the upper 50s to mid 60s, although cooler near Lake Michigan due to a lake breeze.
With warmer start and partial solar maximum temperatures should range a few degrees warmer than yesterday. Upper ridge builds over the region Thursday. Organizing low pressure overnight across the northern high plains ahead of next upper trough will keep breezy conditions going overnight and with low level moisture flux minimums will be very mild.
High pressure tracking through the Great Lakes will bring dry and mild weather through early Thursday.
The southern end of a weak mid to upper-level trough will move slowly eastward across the northern Gulf as the northern stream races northeast leaving it behind. As the trough approaches, the mid-level ridge will push eastward into the Atlantic, which will reduce the subsidence over the region later today. Moisture is limited to the lowest 10kft, and some subsidence and dry air will remain above that.
Upper ridging axis centered just off to our east will make for partly cloudy conditions. mild mornings in the 60s with days warming into the lower to middle 80s and near nil rain chances.
1115 AM EDT Wed Apr 12 2017 A cold front will continue off to the east of the area today.
733 AM EDT Wed Apr 12 2017 Dry conditions will prevail until the next low pressure system impacts the region this weekend. Daytime max temperatures will be slightly cooler. High pressure will support dry conditions and a warming trend in temperatures through the period. Minimal change made in the extended with only minor adjustments in warm and cold frontal timing.
A weak cold front passed southeast of the Mid-State overnight, and by 300 am light northerly surface flow was observed area-wide.
Though weak, the sfc trof will none-the-less advect gradually increasing southerly moist advection thru Thu Night. The shearing of the initial wave would prevent a cold front that'll develop from the Northern to the Northwestern Plains from making sufficient SE progress with the boundary stalling as it nears the Nebraska/KS border Thu Morning. The cold front should make further SE progress, perhaps reaching the KS/OK border Sun Morning. -Howerton The Front Range sfc trof will enable Southerly winds to increase considerably today, but gradually increasing moisture should keep grassland fire danger indices in check for most areas.
Upper ridge beginning to build into the region early this morning. With low level convergence along a lee trof and divergence aloft with a weak wave ahead of the building ridge, some showers possible over south central Montana this morning. Ridge develops over eastern Montana by this afternoon before sliding east into the Dakotas tonight as a deep trof moves over the Pacific coast. Temperatures should approach 60 degrees across most the region today before warming another 10 to 15 degrees on Thursday as the western trof amplifies.
A cold air mass of -30 C at 500 mb moves in behind the front tonight, and with the constant water temperature in the lower 50s this will bring a slight chance of thunderstorms to the waters and the immediate coast tonight.
A cold front will bring mainly light rain to the area tonight.
1013 AM EDT Wed Apr 12 2017 A weak cold front will push east of the area this afternoon.
744 AM EDT Wed Apr 12 2017 High pressure over the western Great Lakes will move east across the area today. A warm front will develop over the midwest on Thursday.
Cold front has exited the mid state and all the showers with it.
Models disagree with the placement of the higher QPF amounts. NAM buffer soundings indicate the low stratus, while the GFS is less pessimistic. At this time, the GFS produces the lowest RH values.
1156 AM CDT Wed Apr 12 2017 Passage of an 850 hPa ridge through the area overnight has allowed winds to become southwesterly at that level which will bring a warming trend to the area today. An increase in 850 hPa temps of about 3 to 4 degrees C will translate to surface temperatures about 10 degrees F warmer than yesterday, with afternoon highs in the middle 70s across most of the area. Boundary will sag slightly south into north central MO on Thursday, and it's not out of the question that it could spark off a few showers or storms across that area before retreating as a warm front Thursday evening.
A weak frontal boundary will to exit the Southern Appalachian Region this morning with high pressure building in.
1203 PM EDT Wed Apr 12 2017 A cold front moves across the region today. High pressure builds tonight.
At the surface, a cold front was extending western NY and southwestward along the Appalachians and through the central Gulf Coast. These clouds have kept temps across the area fairly mild as many locations still in the low to mid 60s, with the exception being the eastern counties. Skies should clear through the day as the upper ridge builds eastward. Clearing skies and light winds will help cool temperatures overnight into the lower 50s, though this is still roughly 5 degrees above normal.
Highs today will range from the upper 70s northwest to the low/mid 80s southeast. For today, upper level ridging will be building in from the west in the wake of the departing disturbance, but the frontal zone will basically be stalled across the region (and perhaps lift a little north by late in the afternoon).
The low level ridge has eroded east of the Mid-Atlantic states, assaulted from its north and south by low pressure systems, and also losing some of its upper level support. Highs will reach the lower 80s this afternoon. From synopsis, high pressure centered east of the Mid-Atlantic coastline will retreat further eastward into the western North Atlantic over the next couple of days.
510 AM MDT Wed Apr 12 2017 Weak upper ridging sits across the western to central CONUS at this time. Upper trough across the Pac NW and northern Rockies will bring active SW flow to the region. A cold front crossing the CWA will bring slight chance pops and cooler temps across northeast WY and far western SD.
High pressure ridge will maintain an east-northeast flow across the area today. A weak inverted trough approaching the Treasure Coast has increased moisture and is producing isolated to scattered showers that are moving onshore.