Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Mostly clear skies and light winds have allowed temperatures to drop into the 30s and 40s across the area with freezing temperatures being reported across much of the Hill Country. With south flow just returning today, moisture will remain scarce and afternoon humidities will be in the 20 to 30 percent range with the lower values in the same locations where we are expecting the stronger winds. For tonight, southerly winds will be increasing in the low-levels of the atmosphere with an 850mb wind around 20-35 knots across the area. Low temperatures will bottom out in the 30s and 40s or about 10 degrees warmer than Tuesday's low temperatures.
A large upper level low off the BC coast will drive a cold front across the forecast area tonight. Some rain will accompany the front but latest model trends are indicating a little less QPF across the lower elevations. Snow levels will lower substantially on Tuesday behind the cold front so some accumulating snow will be possible in the Blues before snow/snow showers taper off late in the day. It will be a bit breezy overnight and into Tuesday lower elevations and noticeably cooler in many areas compared to todays near record/ record warmth. A cold front currently bisecting the area from southwest to northeast will continue to move to the southeast and exit the during the day Tuesday.
High pressure was located over eastern Kansas this afternoon with most sites reporting light and variable winds. Tuesday night a cool front will push southeast into north central Kansas then across the rest of the cwa during the day on Wednesday in response to a mid level trough moving across the northern Plains.
As of 3 AM, temperatures ranged from the lower teens across the eastern Ozarks to the lower twenties along and west of the I-49 corridor. Highs will generally range from the lower 40s over the eastern Ozarks to around 50 degrees near the MO/KS line. Southerly winds will then remain rather brisk tonight which will keep temperatures warmer, especially along the I-49 corridor. Winds will become lighter in the afternoon as low level pressure gradients relax ahead of an approaching cold front.
333 AM EST Tue Jan 30 2018 Low pressure off the Carolina coast will continue to move NE through tonight. This will allow the high pressure centered over the Northern and central plains to push southeast and clear things out over GA for the rest of the short term. This ridge becomes centered over the MS river valley later this afternoon and over GA/SC/NC by Wed morning. This ridge building in will allow the pressure gradient over the area to weaken today and the gusty NW winds will diminish to 10kt or less through tonight.
through Wednesday night Unseasonably warm the next few days under the influence of high pressure.
Unseasonably warm and dry weather will persist through the entire week with high temperatures hovering around 80 degrees each day across the lower deserts. High pressure will remain dominant over the region into the weekend keeping skies mostly clear and temperatures around 10 degrees above seasonal normals. and the eastern Pacific under high amplitude ridging. Heights aloft will dampen slightly through the middle of the week as a weak trough passes through the Pacific Northwest and Northern Rockies.
A few light snow showers and flurries continue over the area early this morning courtesy of sufficient low level moisture and energy on the back side of an upper trough. The latest model guidance suggests very light snow shower activity should continue through mid morning before moisture really decreases as the upper trough moves off to the east. Will need to monitor any areas of light snow this morning for an SPS as even a light coating of snow could make roads slippery with temps falling into the lower 20s. Lows tonight should range from the low to mid 20s under partly cloudy skies. Under strong warm air advection and only partly cloudy skies, temps will warm into the low to mid 50s for highs.
133 AM CST Tue Jan 30 2018 An axis of high pressure, centered just west of the Mississippi River early this morning, will edge eastward across the state today. Some higher clouds will spread in later today, associated with a warm front, but dry conditions will prevail. With the warm front, lows should occur early in the evening, with gusty southerly winds keeping temperatures fairly steady much of the night.
255 AM CST Tue Jan 30 2018 Surface ridging centered over the Mississippi Valley region early this morning will slide southeast today. The true Arctic cold front will quickly swing south over the area Wednesday night with strong low-level cold advection/gusty winds in its wake and possibly a few flurries/snow showers.
A cold front tonight will bring another round of rain and and mountain snow. Along the cold front will be gusty winds to 35 mph late this evening.
Northwesterly flow will remain in place aloft as the upper level low responsible for yesterday's front lifts poleward. Surface ridging currently located over the lower Mississippi Valley will slide eastward through the day, with flow remaining out of the north.
329 AM CST Tue Jan 30 2018 Canadian high pressure will continue to settle over the Mid South today with continued dry conditions along with below normal temperatures. The high pressure will shift east tonight with low level southerly flow returning by Wednesday with much warmer temperatures in the middle to upper 50s anticipated.
High pressure will slide across the area tonight, diminishing winds to almost calm in most locations. Winds will swing around to the south by Tuesday afternoon as the ridge slides off to the east. Small craft advisory conditions will return for Tuesday night into Wednesday afternoon in response to high pressure moving to our southeast and low pressure moving east along the U.
High pressure over the western states will result in dry weather and well above average temperatures through the coming week. At 900 PM, some sites were as much as 11 degrees cooler tonight without the wind than last night. For the remainder of today, a strong upper level ridge in place across the southwest United States will result in relatively light winds under thin cirrus cloud.
1114 PM CST Mon Jan 29 2018 High pressure was settling in underneath the inflection of an upper level trough to the east, and upper ridging to the west. The high pressure was associated with a Canadian airmass that capped afternoon temperatures in the low to mid 30s. A cold front will shift across southern Missouri Wednesday evening.
We will continue with a chance of showers for some of the lower elevations, but any precip will be light and most likely accompany the front. Even behind the cold front, tonight's lows will be still be 5-10 degrees above normal, as will Wednesday's highs. An upper level high pressure ridge centered off the west coast will keep southeast Oregon and southwest Idaho under northwest flow aloft. A cold front crossing the area today will bring snow to the mountains above 5000 feet, along with areas of terrain obscuration and local IFR conditions.
Building high pressure continuing north winds ~5-8 knots late this evening, only expected to diminish slightly after midnight. Winds expected to become more northeast by late morning in the 8-12 knot range, and become variable less than 3 kts by 00z as the high settles over the area. Clear skies will prevail tonight into Tuesday as the cooler airmass settles over the region. Overnight lows are expected to fall into the lower to middle 30s, with temps climbing into the 50s by Tuesday aftn. Area now under a dry north to northwest flow between a progressive mid-upper level trof over the eastern CONUS and an amplified ridge advancing into the plains. Looking for lows tonight to dip into the mid to upper 30s, and just a few degrees warmer for Wednesday morning.
This will initially bring a warm front across western Nebraska with the aforementioned warm air aloft. Trailing cold front to move through this evening and clear the Nebraska Kansas border by early Wednesday morning. Ridging aloft will amplify along the west coast and dominate the next several days. Several cold frontal passages and bouts of light snow are possible.
1137 PM CST Mon Jan 29 2018 Updates this evening have been for progression of clearing skies as high pressure moves toward the central IL area from the upper Midwest. High pressure advancing into the area will provide decreasing winds and mostly clear skies the last half of the night. The cold airmass will be slow to respond to the warming southerly flows, with highs mainly in the low to mid 30s, with areas near Jacksonville possibly reaching the upper 30s. Winds will diminish Wed afternoon as a cold front enters into western Illinois. Slight chances of rain are projected to develop ahead of that front in east-central Illinois, closer to the better energy and forcing for precipitation due to the parent low pressure being in eastern Ontario at that time.
A drier and colder airmass will settle into the region overnight into Tuesday, as high pressure builds into the area. Southerly flow and a warmup will begin on Wednesday as the high moves east of the region. Progressive mid level trof over the region to pivot east of ILN/s area overnight. Lows will drop into the upper teens north to the lower 20s south. A ridge of high pressure will build into the Ohio Valley from the west. Warm advection will kick in late overnight as the high moves southeast of the region and southerly winds kick in. However, the timing of this will not be great and overnight lows will still be cool, ranging from the teens in the east/Scioto Valley to the lower 20s in Indiana counties.
1103 PM CST Mon Jan 29 2018 Tonight will be quiet as high pressure moves overhead which leads to temperatures falling to the single digits above and below zero across the region. A band of clouds will spread across the area which will be the leading edge of the warmer air. Tuesday night will see nearly steady or slowly rising temperatures as the warmer air continues to move northward across the region. By Wednesday morning, temperatures will be near the freezing mark, especially where the snow cover is lacking.
Flat upper ridge will extend across the region today with weak subsidence and abundant sunshine bringing slightly above normal temperatures. This pattern will generate deep westerly flow across the CWA with transport of more dry but warmer air mass.
1152 PM EST Mon Jan 29 2018 An upper level low pressure will bring a light snow accumulation tonight into Tuesday.
The warm front, associated with the low, will stretch across the far north at the same time. At the same time, moisture from southern stream energy will spread northward on Saturday, with a weak inverted trough pushing into the Ohio Valley. The early Saturday morning/late Saturday night periods will present the most challenge, as surface temperatures may cool enough to allow for at least light freezing precipitation. Not the highest confidence forecast at this time, but for now, will play a mainly rain forecast.
High pressure will prolong mild and dry weather through Saturday.
Today will mark the beginning of a moderating trend in temperatures as the warm front lifts up into southern NY. With surface temperatures expected to fall back below freezing, I mentioned the chance of light snow along the NY border and patchy freezing drizzle down to about I-80. The northern tier will once again be flirting with the possibility of some freezing precip as the low levels cool while we remain mild aloft. Lows Saturday night will be well above normal, but dropping back down to a couple of degrees either side of freezing along and north of I-80 will present the Precip Type forecast problem.
Ended up ending the snow slightly quicker based on hi-res models and radar trends as the warm front lifts north. At the same time, moisture from southern stream energy will spread northward on Saturday, with a weak inverted trough pushing into the Ohio Valley. The early Saturday morning/late Saturday night periods will present the most challenge, as surface temperatures may cool enough to allow for at least light freezing precipitation. Not the highest confidence forecast at this time, but for now, will play a mainly rain forecast.
As temperatures crash tonight behind the front, the freezing line will move southward and change this drizzle to freezing drizzle from northwest to southeast. We expect areas of freezing drizzle across much of the area by Saturday morning expect area around southeastern Missouri. This freezing drizzle may cause hazardous travel and impacts on untreated and secondary roads late tonight. Model guidance continue to show light moisture as well as forecast soundings show a signal for freezing drizzle with the occasional light freezing rain shower or sleet shower. This feature will use what limited moisture is available and develop more areas of light freezing rain/drizzle and light sleet.
SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday): The 500 mb closed low centered over the southern Baja Cali peninsula area early today will open up later today and will shift eastwards tonight through early Sat morning. This trough axis and the accompanying areas of positive vorticity will move over the region. Drier and more stable air will move into the region on Sat in the wake of the trough axis which will allow more sunshine. In addition to the increasing sunshine Sat, the low level wind flow will shift around from the south increasing the low level WAA warming up the afternoon temps. The NAM comes in the coolest and the wettest of the short term models for today with both the GFS and ECMWF coming in warmer with lower pops.
5", rotating around the base of the ridge and into South Florida which is already generating a few showers over the local Atlantic and along the east coast as it moves NW.
Strength of high pressure potentially part of the suppression of the precip development this morning. then becoming more southwesterly as a trough digs into the SWrn CONUS. and temps subzero may result in some freezing rain/drizzle early Saturday. With temperatures steady or falling through Saturday, the risk for a band of freezing rain/drizzle will remain across the state. But a strong warm nose in the soundings with freezing temps at the surface will result in FZRA/IP through the night roughly south and east of a line from Rushville to CMI.
524 AM CST Fri Feb 9 2018 WV imagery this morning depicting a broad trof encompassing the CONUS with an amplified ridge hanging off the west coast. At the sfc, very strong high pressure centered over SRN Alberta was building SWD into the NRN high Plains.
Arctic high pressure will sink across southeast Montana this evening and overnight which will maintain a northwest wind gradient through much of the state sufficient to meet wind chill advisory criteria tonight.
Radar is currently showing very light precip moving north across the eastern portions of the CWA this morning in response to a developing coastal trough and weak isentropic lift. Sea fog will also increase as near sfc/low level moisture spreads northward across the cooler gulf waters. Today's highs will be slightly warmer with temps in the mid/upper 60s. Sat will be much warmer as warm air advects northward and clouds decrease from west to east allowing for more sunshine.
949 AM EST Fri Feb 9 2018 Surface boundary was lifting northward as a warm front this morning, and light showers/sprinkles were moving inland along the east coast. The highest precipitation amounts will be along the Altamaha River. Temperatures will be near 60 to the lower 60s across much of southeast Georgia north of the boundary, with highs in the 70s to lower 80s in northeast Florida. Some clearing could take place across portions of northeast Florida this afternoon due to the surface boundary lifting back north as a warm front.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 61 47 59 57 / 0 90 100 100 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 60 44 58 54 / 0 60 80 100 Oak Ridge, TN 59 44 56 53 / 0 60 90 100 Tri Cities Airport, TN 57 39 56 51 / 0 30 90 100 NC.
Challenge for northern edge of snowfall threat will be on handling the low-level dry trajectory which will persist into tonight, and expect not too much past a Huron-Dell Rapids-Jackson MN line. With addition of recent snow cover, would expect temperatures to really struggle as winds diminish under core of high pressure and in face of a healthy inversion.
We will remain under high pressure, staying dry with near normal temperatures through Saturday night.
A cold front will result in a wind shift from the northeast initially at GAG/WWR around 15Z, and the rest of the terminals this afternoon thru late tonight. /issued 343 AM CST Fri Feb 9 2018/ Somewhat breezy south winds continue early this morning across OK ahead of the approaching cold front, which has now entered DDC's CWA. The front will accelerate again tonight, with the freezing line somewhere near and just south of the I44 corridor. Falling temps throughout Sat morning will result in light freezing drizzle. The setup appears eerily similar to last week's freezing drizzle/rain event, with boundary layer conditions drying out behind the front. The mid to upper trough will approach the panhandles early Sun morning.
Given the low confidence, have omitted thunder from the LFK TAF, with poor cigs/vsbys and areas of SHRA expected to continue through much of Saturday morning before the SHRA gradually begins to diminish during the afternoon, with some improvements to cigs/vsbys expected. Rain will become much more widespread during the day Saturday as a stronger upper trough dives southeast from the Pacific Northwest towards the Southern Plains. This will help push the cold front into the forecast area by early Saturday afternoon. The progress of the front should slow somewhat as the flow aloft becomes southwesterly ahead of the upper trough.
This band of intense snow will continue ewd near term between the highway 30/6 corridor where existing winter weather advisory continues through noon. Combo of new highres guidance indicates another 5-7" of additional accumulation along and north of the toll road, 3-5" down through the highway 6 corridor and 1-3" dropping off rapidly to nothing by the highway 24 corridor in IN. as latest HRRR/radar/ob trends more aggressive with warmer temps/drier air reaching these counties by mid morning. Baroclinic zone will remain active into this weekend as several more upper waves round the base of a larger scale trough over the Central US.
A cold front will move through northern Arkansas by Saturday morning bringing a wind shift with it. A cold front will approach the state from the northwest and begin to move through after midnight tonight into Saturday morning. In these areas, freezing rain could begin in a few spots as early as Saturday morning with more widespread below freezing air in place by Saturday evening. With temperatures remaining at or below freezing through the remainder of the short term period, freezing rain or drizzle will remain a concern.
915 AM EST Fri Feb 9 2018 High pressure will move off the mid-Atlantic coast today. A warm front will lift north through the region tonight and Saturday.
Otherwise VFR conditions will largely prevail until this evening as widespread low clouds develop both ahead and trailing a strong cold front. Freezing drizzle will eventually develop across NE OK terminals overnight with light icing accumulations continuing beyond this forecast. /Issued 424 AM CST Fri Feb 9 2018/ Early morning surface analysis places cold front across northern Missouri through central portions of Kansas. Drizzle may begin late this evening across far northeast Oklahoma, transitioning to freezing drizzle after midnight. By early Saturday morning, the freezing line will extend from far northwest Arkansas southwest to near Okemah. Given the dry air aloft noted on forecast soundings, the main precipitation type will be drizzle/rain or freezing drizzle, dependent on the surface temperature, which will be falling through the day on Saturday.
An upper level ridge centered over the western Atlantic extends into the Gulf of Mexico.
Arctic high pressure will move through Northeast Montana today with bitter cold temperatures and clearing skies. High pressure will remain over the area tonight with mostly clear skies. This will bring slightly warmer temperatures along with some clouds. Those cloud will keep Saturday Night warmer with lows near zero.
Highs today will be in the low to mid teens for most locations. Saturday, expect dry conditions with anticyclonic wsw to w flow through the region ahead of a building ridge. Temps will drop toward the lower end of guidance Saturday night with favorable radiational cooling conditions.
The center of the high will be well to the west, with a decent gradient remaining over our CWA. Winds will be slightly higher with the higher overnight readings though, so we could again approach wind chill advisory criteria.
/issued 320 AM CST Fri Feb 9 2018/ In the upper levels there is a broad trough across the center of the country with a ridge extending in from the CA Coast.
539 AM CST Fri Feb 9 2018 Southerly to westerly breezes early in the day will veer around to the north and northeast behind a backdoor cold front this afternoon and evening. /issued 336 AM CST Fri Feb 9 2018/ A strong cold front is barreling south through the Central Plains states early Friday morning. Some light freezing drizzle is possible across southern and eastern areas by Saturday night as clouds fill in area-wide, and temperatures should fall into the teens for most locations.
935 AM EST Fri Feb 9 2018 A warm southerly flow takes hold today, as high pressure exits. High pressure exits this period.
At the surface, as slow moving cold front continues to move into the area and current wind shift line is between CNK and MHK extending northeast into northern norther MO. Sounding profiles suggest that there may be sufficiently cold air to see freezing drizzle over portions of east central KS and have kept only drizzle mention because the lack of lift in the low levels would suggest rain to be the dominant p-type nor would snow since supercooled liquid is the likely supported temperature range.
907 AM EST Fri Feb 9 2018 A warm front across Southern Ohio will lift North of the area this afternoon taking the snow with it. The front will sag south as a cold front tonight as low pressure tracks across the Upper Ohio Valley. Warm front lifting north thru the CWA will continue to cause the southern edge of the snow to lift north toward Lake Erie. High temps are still expected to eventually rise above freezing for all but the far NW and NE this afternoon. Frontal boundary sinks south as a cold front overnight as low pressure tracks across the Upper Ohio Valley.
Low pressure continues to develop to the lee of the Rockies over the Central Plains. Strong area of cold Canadian high pressure is sliding out of Western Canada and into the Northern Plains and Upper Mississippi Valley. resulting in strengthening F-gen and isentropic ascent along and north of an associated warm/stationary front extending eastward from the low center into the Mid Mississippi Valley and Ohio Valley. as high temps reach into the teens across the northern half of our CWA and into the lower 20s for our southern half. Strong high pressure will build into Northern Michigan tonight. Highs generally in the lower and middle 20s. High temperatures should make a run at freezing by midweek.
Highs across central Missouri are expected to reach the low 40s but that will occur early in the day ahead of the front otherwise temperatures will drop through the afternoon. Tonight we will begin to see winter weather impact the area through two different mechanisms as temperatures across the entire CWA drop below freezing. This would provide the potential for freezing drizzle or very light freezing rain. Further south, the LLJ will begin weaken and shift east bringing the freezing drizzle to an end.