Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
349 AM EDT Thu Apr 2 2020 A pattern shift is finally underway early this morning as this week's persistent midlevel troughing has shifted east. Deep layer subsidence ensues today owing to the trough's departure and to simultaneous ridge amplification just upstream. Light winds from the north keep the immediate Lake Huron shoreline a bit cooler as is typical for this time of year. A potent lobe of vorticity rotating around the upper low over Alberta will move through the upper Midwest on Friday night, dampening the ridge over the Great Lakes. The associated cold front will lose upper support as the wave lifts northward into northwestern Ontario.
A large upper trough continues to spin over the north central Rocky Mountains in both the USA and southwest Canada. This trough is creating an unstable atmosphere due to cold air aloft and surface heating, which is creating steep lapse rates.
Deep layer ridging will be in place through this period as mid level high is located in the southern Gulf and surface ridging is wedged between two systems. Today, cool and northeasterly surface winds are on tap as we are on the downstream side of the ridge but winds will become easterly tonight as the ridge shifts slowly eastward.
The storm combined with high pressure centered near the Great Lakes will result in a cool and dry northerly flow across the area into the first part of the weekend.
The few locations that hadn't yet were in the lower 60s while a few other locations were in the lower 50s on their way to the upper 40s. Our jet streak will move east-southeast of the region while we move under the base of a highly amplified yet squeezed ridge.
South winds will keep mild air in place with some moisture return for today and tonight as the cold front advances into southeast KS/western MO by 12z/7am Friday morning.
151 AM EDT Thu Apr 2 2020 Skies will become mostly clear tonight into Thursday as high pressure builds in. High pressure will bring another day of pleasant weather on Friday with highs in the upper 50s to mid 60s.
320 AM CDT Thu Apr 2 2020 High pressure will continue to provide dry conditions again today.
357 AM CDT Thu Apr 2 2020 Cold front continues to work east into western MN this morning, with a wealth of cold air sweeping in behind the front. However, east of there much warm air aloft continues, and that warmer air aloft is only expected to advect slowly east during the day.
Otherwise, quiet weather is on deck for today with ridging aloft, and a gradual increase in southeast winds. After fog burns off this morning, expecting patchy mid/high clouds at times from a weak short wave west of the upper ridge axis. Partly sunny conditions should support temperatures warming to around 60/lower 60s west and south of the city, while southeast winds off the lake maintain cooler temps with upper 40s along the immediate shore.
112 AM EDT Thu Apr 2 2020 High pressure slowly building in from the northwest will bring cooler and drier air to the region through the weekend. Beautiful weather Friday with near normal temps with weak high still building in from NW and mid-to-upper ridging to the SW. Dry weather continues for the weekend with mid level ridging to the south and weak pressure pattern at the surface.
328 AM CDT Thu Apr 2 2020 Main concerns are conditional chances for strong/marginally severe storms early this evening across portions of south central Kansas, then light wintry freezing precip/ice accums possible across central Kansas late tonight. A strong cold front will move into central Kansas by early this afternoon and merge with a dry-line across south central Kansas. The shallow cold air advection looks rather impressive with sufficient moisture in the low levels via point forecast soundings to support light freezing precip across central Kansas late tonight.
An upper ridge will continue to amplify to our west, keeping northwest flow aloft through the end of the day. The aforementioned ridge axis will become more centered over the Tennessee Valley on Friday, with mostly zonal flow aloft. High pressure will remain in place at the sfc for another day, keeping dry conditions in place. High temperatures will climb back into the lower 70s, making for another very pleasant day outside. Overnight lows will only drop into the low 50s by Friday night, as warm air advection begins to take place as sfc flow veers to the east and then to the south.
113 AM EDT Thu Apr 2 2020 [Through 06Z Friday] VFR through the period with light winds as high pressure will be anchored across the area. High pressure will dominate through the near term with dry conditions through tomorrow. The big difference weather wise compared to the past few days are the cooler temperatures.
Most areas west of the valley have had some impacts from freezing rain/drizzle. Expecting a mix of snow/sleet/and freezing rain with this wave and increasing impacts through the day. With the westward shift of the heavier snow amounts, Lake of the Woods down to Wadena should see an initial threat for some freezing rain and low ice accumulations followed by a couple of inches of snow.
401 AM EDT Thu Apr 2 2020 A deep, sharp ridge, that extends from the Gulf of Mexico into the northwestern portions of Ontario, is beginning to move in from our west. This is helping to push out a trough along the eastern seaboard that was responsible for yesterday's cold front passage. The cold front that went through the region yesterday now lies well to our south across Cuba and the southern Bahamas. Current observations reveal temperatures in the lower 70s for the Middle and Lower Keys, while hovering near 70 in the Upper Keys. As mentioned earlier, winds are in the process of shifting to the northeast behind the land breeze, which will reach the Lower Keys within the hour.
A broad trough remains entrenched over the northern Rockies region causing cool, unsettled weather. Friday a low pressure system will move west to east just north of the Canadian with a front sagging south into our area. Normally we would call this a cold front, however, the air mass behind this front is actually warmer than the cold air that seeped over the Continental Divide yesterday.
Tonight should be warmer for most areas than last night. An upper level ridge will move east over the next couple of days, gradually turning winds out of the south and warming temperatures into the 70s by Friday.
347 AM EDT Thu Apr 2 2020 A ridge of high pressure extending from Ontario to the Tennessee Valley will drift east across the local area today through early Friday.
1206 AM EDT Thu Apr 2 2020 Dry weather and seasonable temperature can be expected for the remainder of the week under high pressure. Mid level clouds will continue west of I 77 through the night; otherwise, most areas will be generally clear with building high pressure under continued, cold, nnwly flow aloft. High pressure will remain in control during this period, as a blocking ridge over the Mississippi and lower Ohio Valleys will keep troughing bottled up over the Rockies and northern Plains.
133 AM EDT Thu Apr 2 2020 A high pressure ridge will linger over the region today into Friday. The ridge will then slowly work east into the Appalachians Friday night.
Here, overnight lows will drop into the lower 50s. Another nice day is in store for tomorrow with highs in the lower to mid 70s.
The upper ridge remains situated to our west so look for a few more clouds today coming down the northwest flow aloft.
WS remark will be included at all sites overnight through mid morning when the low level jet is expected to subside.
1143 PM CDT Wed Apr 1 2020 High pressure will dominate the Midwest through Thursday bringing dry conditions.
1231 AM CDT Thu Apr 2 2020 South and southeast winds will increase by late morning ahead of an approaching low pressure system. Upper level clouds track eastward over ridging aloft over the southern states. Today's highs will be in the lower 70s. Increasing cloud cover and light, isolated showers will begin entering the western part of the state Thursday, with southerly winds bringing in warmer air. Lows Thursday morning in the lower 50s. Showers will expand in coverage, ahead of an approaching cold front Thursday evening and Friday.
and Friday Warm advection on the west side of an upper ridge was producing middle clouds and a few sprinkles over northcentral Wisconsin at 300am. A sharp upper ridge will move slowly across the area today and keep the weather mild and dry. Highs today will be 5 to 10 degrees above normal, though quite a bit cooler near the lake and bay. Clouds will increase across the area tonight as the upper ridge moves off to the east. Rain will become likely across central and northcentral Wisconsin by Friday afternoon as a cold front slowly approaches from the west.
A cold front is expected to develop over the region Thursday evening, but most of that is expected to occur after the short term forecast period. High temperatures tomorrow will be tricky, north-northeasterly flow will develop over the northeastern portion of our forecast responsibility, keeping temperatures cooler and more humid, whereas the over the southern I-25 corridor and over the southeastern parts of the southeastern plains will be much warmer. Also, well below seasonal maximum temperatures should be noted Friday(as evidenced by forecast max temperatures from around 40 into the lower 50's over the I-25 corridor and southeastern Colorado plains), while San Luis Valley locations should experience near seasonal temperatures in combination with elevated/localized fire weather concerns at times during Friday afternoon.
At the surface and inverted trof associated with low pressure near the OK panhandle stretched through western NE into the western Dakotas. Attendant warm front extended along the SD/NE border into central IA. Meanwhile a cold front was pushing through the western Dakotas and the NE panhandle. Models seem to be in good agreement that the leading edge of the cold front should cross into the northern CWA sometime toward midnight with the predominate precip type being rain. Brunt of cold air advection to finally support a transition from rain to freezing rain/sleet does not come until early Thursday evening. Periods of freezing rain may lead to icing as well with the potential of 0. Otherwise a noticeable change in temperatures will be seen with this latest cold frontal passage.
337 AM EDT Thu Apr 2 2020 A low pressure system centered south of Nova Scotia will spread precipitation into Vermont and Northern New York from the east today.
400 AM EDT Thu Apr 2 2020 A high pressure ridge will affect the region today into Friday. The ridge will then slowly work east into the Appalachians Friday night.
The mid/upper level ridge will make it a slow go with the approach of our next system.
Better chances of showers/isolated thunderstorms will arrive tonight into tomorrow, ahead of a cold front that was currently surging south through the lee of the Rockies. 00Z guidance continues to show a quick arrival of the cold front, with only modest instability expected in the shrinking warm sector across southeast OK into western AR. Can't rule out a few strong storms on Friday, but the higher severe chances will remain well south into TX.
Low level thermal ridging and dry downslope westerly flow and decreasing high clouds will boost temperatures well above normal this afternoon. By Friday and Friday night a cold front, associated with the upper level trough, will plunge southwest through west Texas and southeast New Mexico into Mexico.
The latter half of this week will be influenced by ridging over the area leading to dry weather. Clouds continue today as a low off to the NE is taking its time to move eastward, but are expected to diminish overnight as a ridge moves in over the area. Ridging will continue to settle in tomorrow through the day Friday leading to dry weather and warming temperatures.
Satellite indicates the core of the upper level trough which brought so much daily shower activity to the region is beginning to skulk eastward into central Idaho this evening. Instability is expected to decrease with the inter-trough cold pool aloft moving out of the area. but activity will be less widespread and intense as the core of the upper level trough drifts eastward on Thursday.
LW Chattanooga Airport, TN 67 45 72 50 75 / 0 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 63 41 69 46 73 / 0 0 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 65 42 69 47 73 / 0 0 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 60 35 65 39 71 / 0 0 0 0 0 NC.
High pressure will dominate our weather regime today into tonight, before eroding as a weak, elongated trough of low pressure enters from the west Friday.
/issued 940 PM CDT Wed Apr 1 2020/ Sfc ridging has shifted east of our region this evening but enough of the ridge exists across our eastern third such that winds have become calm and should stay that way overnight.
313 AM EDT Thu Apr 02 2020 A low pressure off the mid-Atlantic coast will move slowly east and out to sea through Friday. The storm combined with high pressure centered near the Great Lakes will result in a cool and dry northerly flow across the area into the first part of the weekend.
345 AM CDT Thu Apr 2 2020 Early morning sfc analysis shows high pressure now centered over the TN Valley and ridging swd providing a very light erly flow at this time. Water vapor imagery shows weak ridging developing aloft over the area with multiple weak disturbances noted upstream in the developing swrly flow. Highs today are expected to run a couple of degrees warmer than yesterday.
From Thursday night into Friday evening, a slow moving trough will move east through the region. High temperatures will range from the mid-50s to lower 60s on Thursday and range from the lower 40s to upper 50s on Friday. High pressure will build into the region for the weekend.
/Issued 740 PM EDT Wed Apr 1 2020/ The short-term forecast will be dominated by high pressure which will bring mostly clear skies and dry conditions. Temperatures in the low to mid 30s will be possible in northeast Georgia which will increase frost potential, especially in the protected mountain valleys. Temperatures Thursday will rebound several degrees to near seasonal normals as heights begin to rise as mid-level ridging starts to build eastward.
Today Through Friday Night An upper ridge continues over the middle of the country with upper low poised to move into the northwest from southern Canada. The upper ridge will move east today and the upper low will move into the Rockies. The upper low will slowly progress southeast through Friday. Rain chances will increase in the west this afternoon and spread eastward ahead of the associated cold front. Highs today will be in the lower to mid 70s and mid 60s to mid 70s Friday.
/issued 503 AM CDT Thu Apr 2 2020/ Scattered to broken clouds across most of the region and southerly flow have kept temperatures a few degrees warmer this morning than what we've seen the past few days. We're on track to hit the low 40s and low 50s for lows over the next few hours. High pressure over eastern CONUS continues to keep us dry.
A cool and unsettled pattern continues Thursday as a trough of low pressure moves across the area.
/Issued 559 AM EDT Thu Apr 2 2020/ Quite weather will continue this short term period as dry high pressure drifts to the area.
616 AM EDT Thu Apr 2 2020 A ridge of high pressure extending from Ontario to the Tennessee Valley will drift east across the local area today through early Friday.
A cold upper level trough will cross the region today.
It's usual movement to the NE was being hindered by high latitude blocking from the polar regions to the north Atlantic. Unlike yesterday with most spots only warming into the lower 60s, later today should be somewhat milder, with highs rising into the mid/upper 60s. The aforementioned ridge axis will become more centered over the Tennessee Valley on Friday, with mostly zonal flow aloft. High pressure will remain in place at the sfc for another day, keeping dry conditions in place. High temperatures will climb back into the lower 70s, making for another very pleasant day outside. Overnight lows will only drop into the low 50s by Friday night, as warm air advection begins to take place as sfc flow veers to the east and then to the south.
503 AM CDT Thu Apr 2 2020 Scattered to broken clouds across most of the region and southerly flow have kept temperatures a few degrees warmer this morning than what we've seen the past few days. We're on track to hit the low 40s and low 50s for lows over the next few hours. High pressure over eastern CONUS continues to keep us dry.
/issued 345 AM CDT Thu Apr 2 2020/ Early morning sfc analysis shows high pressure now centered over the TN Valley and ridging swd providing a very light erly flow at this time. Water vapor imagery shows weak ridging developing aloft over the area with multiple weak disturbances noted upstream in the developing swrly flow. Highs today are expected to run a couple of degrees warmer than yesterday.
Some light freezing drizzle can't be ruled out tonight in the wake of the front given the deep low level moisture underneath a mid level capping inversion. The best chance for measurable rain/freezing rain is across central Kansas, but the light, non-measurable freezing drizzle could develop as far west as Dodge City.
Another nice day is in store for the ArkLaMiss as high pressure remains in place at the surface while short wave ridging builds in the mid to upper levels. After a cool start to Thursday morning, temperatures will quickly rebound, maxing out in the low 70s in the north and the high 70s in the south. A few showers will be possible in the western portions of the region on Friday morning but will struggle to overcome the remaining high pressure.
622 AM CDT Thu Apr 2 2020 High pressure will continue to provide dry conditions again today.
559 AM EDT Thu Apr 2 2020 Quite weather will continue this short term period as dry high pressure drifts to the area.
A cold front with stronger north winds will move past the terminals late tonight with the possibility of MVFR ceilings, mainly at KCDS. A broad upper trough over the western CONUS will begin to move to the east with one vort lobe in particular rotating across the northern Rockies today that will help unlock cold air quickly southward through the High Plains today and tonight. That cold front will arrive in the forecast area after midnight.
Another beautiful day is underway across the region as high pressure remains in place. Another nice day is in store for the ArkLaMiss as high pressure remains in place at the surface while short wave ridging builds in the mid to upper levels. After a cool start to Thursday morning, temperatures will quickly rebound, maxing out in the low 70s in the north and the high 70s in the south. A few showers will be possible in the western portions of the region on Friday morning but will struggle to overcome the remaining high pressure.
Despite the increasing cloud cover today the high temperatures will be slightly warmer and 5 to 10 degrees above normal for early April. The chance of showers along with a few storms will gradually increase tonight and Friday across the entire area as an upper level trough moves eastward into the northern Plains sending a cold front slowly southeastward into northeast and central MO by Friday afternoon. The highest chance of rain on Friday will be across northeast and central MO along with the highest QPF.
618 AM EDT Thu Apr 2 2020 A ridge of high pressure will build over the area today and provide VFR conditions with mainly clear skies. A pattern shift is finally underway early this morning as this week's persistent midlevel troughing has shifted east. Deep layer subsidence ensues today owing to the trough's departure and to simultaneous ridge amplification just upstream. Light winds from the north keep the immediate Lake Huron shoreline a bit cooler as is typical for this time of year. A potent lobe of vorticity rotating around the upper low over Alberta will move through the upper Midwest on Friday night, dampening the ridge over the Great Lakes. The associated cold front will lose upper support as the wave lifts northward into northwestern Ontario.
as trough moves across rest of TAF sites will veer to the W with all sites becoming gusty by midday. Low level thermal ridging and dry downslope westerly flow and decreasing high clouds will boost temperatures well above normal this afternoon. By Friday and Friday night a cold front, associated with the upper level trough, will plunge southwest through west Texas and southeast New Mexico into Mexico.
Areas of freezing fog and drizzle have setup along and east of the Laramie Range into the NE Panhandle this morning. Forecast soundings are supportive of freezing drizzle as recent RAP forecasts show additional drying in the dendritic growth zone below 50 percent RH beginning around 10z lasting through at least 18z. Freezing drizzle should make for slick/icy road conditions which could result in hazardous travel.
620 AM CDT Thu Apr 2 2020 Cold front continues to work east into western MN this morning, with a wealth of cold air sweeping in behind the front. However, east of there much warm air aloft continues, and that warmer air aloft is only expected to advect slowly east during the day.
639 AM EDT Thu Apr 2 2020 A high pressure ridge will affect the region today into Friday. The ridge will then slowly work east into the Appalachians Friday night.
WS remark will be included at all sites through mid morning when the low level jet is expected to subside. Coverage of thunder this afternoon will remain too limited for TAF inclusion, but will include PROB groups after 08z with slightly better thunder chances and MVFR cigs/vsbys ahead of an approaching cold front. Better chances of showers/isolated thunderstorms will arrive tonight into tomorrow, ahead of a cold front that was currently surging south through the lee of the Rockies. 00Z guidance continues to show a quick arrival of the cold front, with only modest instability expected in the shrinking warm sector across southeast OK into western AR. Can't rule out a few strong storms on Friday, but the higher severe chances will remain well south into TX.
Today through Friday morning An upper level disturbance has begun to push into the region, dragging a cold front into portions of northeast Nebraska, signaling a stark change in the mild conditions we've gotten used to over the past couple of days. By early afternoon, rain may begin to transition to a wintry mix of freezing rain, sleet, and eventually snow across northeast Nebraska. Forecast soundings in this area indicate the vast majority of this precipitation will be freezing rain, mixed with a bit of sleet. Another bit of good news, in addition to the warm pavement, temperatures are expected to rise above freezing across the forecast area Friday afternoon.
The area remains between eastern Pacific ridging and a departing trough.
622 AM EDT Thu Apr 2 2020 [Through 12Z Friday] VFR conds will prevail through the period with light north to northeast winds as high pressure dominates. Deep layer ridging will be in place through this period as mid level high is located in the southern Gulf and surface ridging is wedged between two systems. Today, cool and northeasterly surface winds are on tap as we are on the downstream side of the ridge but winds will become easterly tonight as the ridge shifts slowly eastward.
However, a slow-moving, weak surface cold front is progged to move through the PAH forecast area starting early Sat. Expect a continued warmup through the short term period (highs well into the 60s Fri) until Sat, when southeastern MO/southern IL locations will have highs in the lower to middle 60s, with the rest of the region managing upper 60s/lower 70s.
Attention then turns to greater showers and thunderstorm probabilities later tonight into Friday night as a cold front slowly moves through the area.
Min temps will mainly be in the low to mid 40s with some river valleys and low lying areas dipping into the upper 30s, perhaps accompanied by some patchy fog.