Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Very warm to hot temperatures forecast across the region again today, yet a degree or two cooler compared to yesterday. A weak southerly surge appears to be pushing northward along the Big Sur Coast this morning, yet not expecting it to rush too far north today given the high pressure aloft.
Weak high pressure moves in behind the boundary, and light winds combined with mostly clear skies will bring lows tonight into the mid to upper 60s.
Not much to say for a couple days, with strong high pressure in firm control of SW Kansas weather.
Still expect this afternoon to be dry, with the chance of showers and thunderstorms waiting until this evening across northeast Missouri and west central Illinois when the trough passes through the area. Have continued to trend temps aoa the warmer guidance.
Otherwise most of the fcst area will be in the dry airmass just south of the departing upper low in northern Manitoba. A tad cooler on Tuesday.
A large upper ridge of high pressure will build over the nation's midsection through the work week. Look for temperatures to warm well into the 80s and even the lower 90s on an afternoon basis.
1151 AM CDT MON SEP 19 2016 A quick update to increase precipitation chances overnight ahead of a warm front.
Surface cold front tied to upper low spinning into northern Manitoba was arcing south and southwest through Minnesota and into western Nebraska early this morning. Cold front is forecast to lift back north as a warm front Tuesday as westerlies begin to buckle in the west as trough settles into the Pacific Northwest. Downstream ridging will begin here, sufficiently capping potential convection in eastern Nebraska and southwest Iowa despite Mixed Layer CAPE topping 2000 j/kg in the afternoon. However convection is expected to fire not too far north of our area Tuesday evening/night north of retreating warm front where increasing low level jet enhances forcing in northern Iowa. Given warming mid level temperatures, south winds and plenty of sunshine, expect highs to surge well into the 80s, and likely hitting the lower 90s in the southern half of eastern Nebraska.
This mid-level ridging will bring hot and mostly dry weather to the region this week. /Issued 357 AM CDT MON SEP 19 2016/ An upper ridge will continue to build over the southern Plains today and will persist for much of this week.
An upper trough to the north will bring scattered showers and sun breaks today, with thunderstorms possible.
1025 AM EDT MON SEP 19 2016 Remnant circulation of TC Julia in the process of becoming absorbed by a short wave frontal trof pressing acrs the Deep South/Southeast coast. The broad troffing pattern over the Deep South/N FL is coupling with a weak low lvl ridge/mid lvl anticyclone over S FL/FL Keys to generate a light but steady W/SW breeze thru the H100-H50 lyr over the central and north peninsula. Meanwhile, there has been a notable increase PWAT values over the past 24hrs as deep lyr moisture has pooled within the trof. The light wrly H100-H70 winds coupled with the high moisture suggest sct/nmrs aftn shras/tsras showers and storms centered along or just east of the spine of the Peninsula.
707 AM EDT Mon Sep 19 2016 A cold front will slowly finish passing through the area today. High pressure behind the front will bring dry and warm weather for much of the rest of the week. Tonight, we expect skies to become mainly clear, as weak surface ridging builds in. Models in solid agreement on a quiet midweek period generally under high pressure, but with just a subtle weak dry cool front slipping through Tuesday night. Lack of cloud cover will lead to comfortably cool nights with lows mainly in the lower to mid 50s, which is near climatology if not a touch above.
The fog burned off by 9 am but the low clouds have been slow to dissolve in many areas. Due to this lower level moisture, low clouds and patchy dense fog has developed across the area this morning.
1021 AM EDT MON SEP 19 2016 Improving conditions today as high pressure begins to build into the region. Mesoanalysis in the low to mid-levels show a lobe of precipitable water values above 1. Latest radar trends and mesoscale models indicate rain lingering in the higher terrain of WV until as late as noon Monday afternoon. Upper level ridge builds over the region through the short term period.
As the low continues to develop over the Pacific Northwest tomorrow, a band of moisture will remain over the central mountains and the Montana border region. It will remain warm and breezy with more 70s and 80s for the lower elevations.
A low pressure system will bring showers and cooler, more seasonable temperatures to the North Country late in the week.
Closed low remains positioned over the Carolinas into mid-week. After a bit of relief yesterday with highs (Atlanta only made it to 79!) the warmer temperatures resume today. Lows will be a degree or two cooler Tuesday than today with mid to upper 60s across the CWA.
High pressure and dry air aloft will maintain VFR conditions for the next 24 hours. /issued 418 AM CDT MON SEP 19 2016/ SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday): A broad 500mb ridge centered near the Texas Big Bend region this morning will remain nearly in place through the forecast period.
A high pressure system will allow for skies to clear this evening. Upper level ridge builds over the region through the short term period.
1145 AM EDT MON SEP 19 2016 Improving conditions today as high pressure begins to build into the region. Mesoanalysis in the low to mid-levels show a lobe of precipitable water values above 1. Latest radar trends and mesoscale models indicate rain lingering in the higher terrain of WV until as late as noon Monday afternoon. Upper level ridge builds over the region through the short term period.
734 AM EDT Mon Sep 19 2016 Clouds and rain chances are expected to persist until final passage of a cold front later today. The convection-focusing front was analyzed as a semi-stationary boundary from Lake Erie, across Central Ohio, southward to the Lower Mississippi Valley this morning.
Upper level high pressure is building into the region with a period of dry weather and above normal temperatures on tap for the upcoming week. /issued 247 AM CDT MON SEP 19 2016/ Temperatures across the Midsouth range from the low 60s to the low 70s. but a few degrees cooler than last week. in the upper 60s to near 70 degrees, so at least it should feel a bit cooler.
906 AM EDT Mon Sep 19 2016 Building high pressure will result in dry conditions through the week, Minor adjustments to the forecast to add patchy fog through the next hour and limit remaining showers the remainder of the morning to far eastern zones as latest wv imagery fails to show any good upstream forcing mechanism and latest RAP soundings largely shows subsidence at forecast points across the region.
High pressure at the surface and ridging aloft is forecast through the period producing dry, warm, and humid conditions. On Tuesday a cold front north and west of our area attempts to sag into the region but the upper ridge holds fast thereby washing it out/frontolysis.
833 AM EDT MON SEP 19 2016 With low pressure off the Carolina coast, the flow, while weak, will try to favor a westerly direction, off the surface. As reflected in the grids, this region should have the highest chance of precip today. Waterspout potential over the coastal waters will be slightly elevated due to the light wind profile and steeper lapse rates in the lower levels. Otherwise, relatively warm 500 mb temps and high freezing levels will limit the main storm hazards to frequent cloud to ground lightning and brief wind gusts 35- 45 mph.
High pressure and dry air aloft will produce VFR conditions and light winds for the next 24 hours. High pressure and dry air aloft will maintain VFR conditions for the next 24 hours. /issued 418 AM CDT MON SEP 19 2016/ SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday): A broad 500mb ridge centered near the Texas Big Bend region this morning will remain nearly in place through the forecast period.
437 AM PDT MON SEP 19 2016 Hot and dry today with high temperatures approaching record levels, then cooler heading into mid-week with a slight chance of Sierra showers. Readings are running around 2-7 degrees warmer compared to 24 hours ago. Strong high pressure and an absent marine layer will once again result in a hot day across the region with highs once again around the century mark across portions of the Central Valley (close to record levels for the date).
Another sunny morning across Utah and southwest Wyoming, as the area remains under the broad/flat high pressure that has settled over the southwest CONUS the last few days. Southern/eastern Utah will be on the northern edge of this activity, with the highest precip values likely to remain in Arizona.
A ridge of high pressure centered over New Mexico and Texas will continue to allow for dry and unseasonably warm temperatures over Colorado. Southwest flow aloft will prevail around an upper level ridge centered over Texas Tuesday. Moisture will start to increase late Tuesday as a short wave trough nears Colorado. This wave will bring moist air and the upper levels of the atmosphere, however the lower levels will remain dry and make it difficult for precipitation.
Have continued to trend temps aoa the warmer guidance.
Water vapor imagery showing westerly flow aloft today with an upper low approaching the Pacific northwest. Scattered showers likely over the Washington Cascades due to proximity of upper low and better onshore flow. High temperatures similar to yesterday with 70s at the lower elevations and 60s in the mountains.
Mid level ridge is prog to remain draped over much of Texas today resulting in continued warm mid level temps and associated subsidence. Guidance wants to bring a rather elongated vorticity lobe southward across the CWA along a minor weakness in the ridge late this afternoon and tonight.
Upper ridge will build across the area through the early week periods with the resultant increase in geopotential heights/mean thickness values supporting temperatures much above seasonal climo.
Morning showers and storms will push onshore through the late morning with additional showers and storms possible through the afternoon and evening especially across the northern and central waters with a trough in place.
Mild weather conditions are expected for today and Tuesday with zonal flow aloft or broad but weak ridging. High pressure will be spread across most of CONUS. On the other hand, a broad trough will occupy most of western Canada and the prairie provinces. By late Tuesday the low pressure system, currently in the Gulf of Alaska, drops into the Pacific Northwest. This trough establishes a cold front across Northeast Montana Tuesday late afternoon and evening. The trough will also eject Pacific moisture along this boundary which will bring a chance for rain showers that may be accompanied by isolated thunder.
Warmer and drier air aloft today will inhibit convective development and hinder cloud formation for the most part. The core of the ridge will be just north and west of the forecast area, and weak cold air advection with northeasterly winds through the mid levels will keep temperatures from rising too quickly over the next few days.
A frontal boundary is fcst to backdoor its way into our region from the northeast today and that will help to dry the lower levels out somewhat.
1024 AM EDT MON SEP 19 2016 High pressure will linger over the region today and tonight. A weak cold front will cross the region on early Tuesday. High pressure will return for midweek. The NAM shows an upper trough from Western Ohio south to MS/AL supporting clouds across Eastern Ohio and NWRN PA. high pressure was to our west. Expecting eastern/southeastern counties to clear this morning as the high builds in. Cold front on track to move into the area Tuesday.
Due to this lower level moisture, low clouds and patchy dense fog has developed across the area this morning.
Building high pressure will result in another dry and warm day once again today. A weak upper low off the southern California coast is forecast to draw moisture up from Hurricane Paine and across western New Mexico Tuesday.
946 AM PDT MON SEP 19 2016 Updated sky cover and weather this morning to account for the low clouds and fog mostly associated with the marine layer. With the main band of upper level west winds with the jet stream over northern Oregon and Washington, our forecast area lies under high pressure this morning.
853 AM CDT Mon Sep 19 2016 Low pressure and associated cold front moving east into the great Lakes region. For today, height rises occur in response to a deepening upper level low per water vapor imagery just off the coast of Vancouver island. Broad ridging and associated subsidence dominates resulting in plenty of sunshine and somewhat breezy westerly winds this afternoon/15 to 25 mph most areas. Highs will mostly be in the lower 70s, with some upper 60s across the north and northwest.
1050 AM MDT MON SEP 19 2016 Another beautiful day in store as high pressure remains in control. A few clouds are possible over the higher terrain but, by and large, clear skies will be the rule with some gusty afternoon winds though nothing out of the ordinary. On Tuesday, moisture from TS Paine off the Baja coast will get caught in the anticyclonic flow from the high pressure over Texas and start streaming into our area.
Flow aloft begins to back to southwesterly late this evening as the next upper level trough develops along the Pacific Northwest Coast.
1008 AM EDT MON SEP 19 2016 A weak cold front will merge with a trough off the southeast coast tonight. This trough will linger near the coast through much of the week and a chance of showers and thunderstorms will continue. A weak cold front will cross the area today and move to the coast tonight. An upper level trough just west of the Appalachians this morning will move into the area late today. becoming a cut-off low tonight. Kept temperatures near guidance consensus for the highs in the mid to upper 80s and lows tonight in the upper 60s and lower 70s.
926 AM EDT Mon Sep 19 2016 High pressure will bring dry weather and above normal temperatures this week. Otherwise, with high pressure moving in from the west, drier and sunnier conditions are expected for the rest of the day (and for the whole day in the western half of the forecast area). Previous discussion > Pcpn has ended as a H5 trof has pushed PVA into West Virginia. The boundary that the convection formed on will continue to weaken as a high pressure ridge builds into the region. With the sunshine, temperatures will warm to above normal with highs in the lower 80s.
626 AM CDT MON SEP 19 2016 Increasing large scale subsidence under a building ridge of high pressure will keep VFR conditions through Tuesday morning. The big story today will be the heat as high pressure builds in across our region. That said, added in a very low mention of isolated storms southwest of a Cisco to Stephenville to Killeen line this afternoon in the vicinity of a weakness in the mid-level ridge/inverted trough axis. High pressure will be in charge through most of the upcoming week, resulting in above normal high temperatures and a stretch of quiescent weather.
621 AM CDT Mon Sep 19 2016 Warming trend well underway this morning as the combination of high pressure sliding off to our east and weak low pressure to our north has allowed for the reestablishment of southerly flow across our region. models continue to highlight decent 850 ridging across our area today as warm air surges northward in advance of a weak boundary that will begin sliding south into northern/central Iowa this afternoon.
For today, height rises occur in response to a deepening upper level low per water vapor imagery just off the coast of Vancouver island. Broad ridging and associated subsidence dominates resulting in plenty of sunshine and somewhat breezy westerly winds this afternoon/15 to 25 mph most areas. Highs will mostly be in the lower 70s, with some upper 60s across the north and northwest.
A low pressure center off the Baja coast and a high pressure center over Texas will bring moisture over Arizona early this week.
While the frontal system that moved through the region over the last 18 hours has pushed south of the mid-state, the trailing upper level trough is currently overhead. The interaction of that trough with the remaining low-level moisture has allowed for a couple of showers and even some thunder to develop near the Alabama state line. Characterized by weak ridging aloft and a stagnant surface pattern, temperatures should hover in the middle to upper 80s all week, with possibly a few 90 degree readings mixed in by mid-to-late week. Dew points should remain in the low to middle 60s throughout the week, providing us with several very comfortable days to look forward to.
as a strong ridge to our south remains in place. High Clouds and continued warm air aloft could keep temps a couple degrees warmer tonight.
The second problem revolves around the shower/thunderstorm risk tonight across parts of central Illinois as a weak cold front slips into the area. Temperatures should top out a few degrees warmer than yesterday, with widespread mid-upper 80s. /Canada border will push a weak cold front into the forecast area tonight. In the latter half of the week, a large wave digs a trof over the Pac NW and slowly makes its way across the country. The GFS is far more aggressive with the progression and absorption of the low into the mean flow/phasing into the northerly stream at h5. Cloud cover will remain minimal overall, but an increase in cloud cover, and possibly showers/storms, is likely at KPIA as a cold front slips into the area later tonight.
642 AM CDT MON SEP 19 2016 A cold front will continue east clearing the Northland this morning. We limited the mention to just chance at this time, but some of the high resolution models show the showers more widespread and later updates may have to increase. Weak high pressure will lead to mostly clear skies tonight with lows into the forties with a few upper thirties possible. The west coast long wave trof will be the focus for our weather the next 7 days.
High pressure centered over Arkansas will continue to move slightly east toward the Tennessee Valley this morning. Lowered dewpoints this afternoon, as drier air mixing down to the surface should allowed them to drop into the lower 60s. KTW (Issued 619 AM CDT MON SEP 19 2016) For 12Z TAFs: Upper level trough axis was moving across the area this morning.
However, a strengthening upper-level ridge should act to suppress the growth of most diurnal cumulus. -Stalley /ISSUED 626 AM CDT MON SEP 19 2016/ Increasing large scale subsidence under a building ridge of high pressure will keep VFR conditions through Tuesday morning. The big story today will be the heat as high pressure builds in across our region. That said, added in a very low mention of isolated storms southwest of a Cisco to Stephenville to Killeen line this afternoon in the vicinity of a weakness in the mid-level ridge/inverted trough axis. High pressure will be in charge through most of the upcoming week, resulting in above normal high temperatures and a stretch of quiescent weather.
06Z surface data has a cold front running from northern Minnesota, into southeast South Dakota, and then across northern Nebraska. Based on projected temperatures/dew points, convection should initiate sometime between 2 and 5 PM along the cold front. However, data through 08z does not show this low having developed across Nebraska. This low is important in regards to the overall threat for any isolated tornadoes. Tonight, the cold front moves through the area.
For today through Tuesday, high pressure at the surface will continue to build into the region with heights aloft rising slowly. Lows tonight will cool back into the upper 50s to the lower 60s.
/ISSUED / Low/mid level ridging will dominate area wx for the next several days bringing continued hot temps & minimal rain chances.
802 AM EDT Mon Sep 19 2016 Building high pressure will result in dry conditions through the week, Minor adjustments to the forecast to add patchy fog through the next hour and limit remaining showers the remainder of the morning to far eastern zones as latest wv imagery fails to show any good upstream forcing mechanism and latest RAP soundings largely shows subsidence at forecast points across the region.
737 AM EDT MON SEP 19 2016 High pressure will linger over the region today and tonight. A weak cold front will cross the region on early Tuesday. High pressure will return for midweek. The NAM shows an upper trough from Western Ohio south to MS/AL supporting clouds across Eastern Ohio and NWRN PA. high pressure was to our west. Expecting eastern/southeastern counties to clear this morning as the high builds in. Cold front on track to move into the area Tuesday.
This activity is expected to push slowly ssewd as the trough axis clears the region later this morning -- but will likely persist beyond 12Z -- warranting 20-30% POPs for the southeastern counties. At the surface, a diffuse cold front will push slowly southeastward through the region today -- exiting the southeastern zones late this afternoon.
925 AM PDT MON SEP 19 2016 A low pressure system off the Southern California coast will draw mid level moisture into Southern California today.
High pressure will build into the region for mid to late week.
A cold front continues to spread spreading scattered heavy showers onshore into Washington this morning. This front is part of a broader upper level trough which is becoming established near Vancouver Island.
900 AM PDT MON SEP 19 2016 Hot and dry today with high temperatures approaching record levels, then cooler heading into mid-week with a slight chance of Sierra showers and storms. One more hot day over Norcal with a virtually non-existent marine layer and a strong ridge centered over TX dominating the wx pattern into CA.
/issued 247 AM CDT MON SEP 19 2016/ Temperatures across the Midsouth range from the low 60s to the low 70s. but a few degrees cooler than last week. in the upper 60s to near 70 degrees, so at least it should feel a bit cooler.
1234 PM EDT Mon Sep 19 2016 Building high pressure will result in dry conditions through the week, Building high pressure has taken control with dry conditions expected the remainder of the day.
The 7 am regional surface analysis showed a weak cold front extending from Columbia, SC through Mobile, AL, and a weak trough from the FL Panhandle southwestward to the north central Gulf of Mexico. Vapor imagery and upper air data showed a positive-tilted short wave trough from northwest GA through Mobile, translating eastward at 25 knots. Ahead of this trough, precip water values were 25% above climatology (based on Satellite special sensors).
I think this higher cloudiness will limit the extent of the lower clouds, so only have CIGs at San Antonio airports with just SCT at AUS. Subtropical Ridge sets up over Texas bringing decreasing moisture levels and increased subsidence and capping to inhibit convective development.
A better chance of showers and thunderstorms, particularly for northwest Montana, will develop ahead of a weak cold front on Saturday afternoon.
Upper level short wave energy will drop southeast across the southern Great Lakes from late this afternoon through tonight and will drive a cold front southeast through the Missouri Ozarks. Temperatures will be slightly cooler over most areas with highs generally in the lower to middle 80s. Dew points on Friday will vary quite a bit across the Ozarks with values ranging from the lower 60s across central Missouri to around 70 degrees across far southwestern Missouri. Highs may struggle to reach the middle 70s over parts of central Missouri while areas of far southwestern Missouri reach the lower 90s.
Convection will become widespread on Friday as upper trough approaches from the west and slug of deeper moisture over AZ/NM lifts northward.
The high will weaken over the weekend allowing for temperatures to lower to near normal. Models showing high confidence in the development of an upper trof early in the week with its center over Southwestern Canada.