Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Water vapor imagery and model analysis shows the upper level trough base is now past the forecast area with increasing heights behind the trough. Moisture continues to stream in behind the trough passage, which will leave lingering scattered showers across northern California. Chances for scattered rain and snow will continue as moisture streams in behind the trough this evening and Tuesday, mainly for the mountains.
Precipitation should be light and fast moving with any rain changing to snow as temperatures are mostly at/below freezing across west river counties. Wednesday, the region will remain under a tight surface pressure gradient as the wrapped-up exiting low pressure system tracks northeast toward the Hudson Bay region.
Upper trof is pushing eastward and tight surface pressure gradient is expected to relax through the evening. It will remain windy all night across the higher mountains. Will have to watch this potential closely however as the latest hrrr run tries to spread some strong gusts down into the higher elevations of the rampart range towards 15z. though western parts of Pueblo county and eastern Fremont county will also hit criteria on the west side of the surface lee trof. Dry and warmer weather will return for Wednesday though winds should remain lighter and below critical fire weather thresholds.
Otherwise, could see isolated thunderstorms across north Louisiana and south Arkansas later this afternoon as upper-trough migrates east.
The latest model runs continue to slow the progression of a weak front, as it attempts to break down the sharp ridge over the eastern CONUS.
110 PM PST Mon Feb 20 2017 It will be mostly dry with cooler than average days due to continued onshore flow.
338 PM EST Mon Feb 20 2017 High pressure will crest over the area tonight before gradually shifting on Tuesday.
/ISSUED 616 AM CST Mon Feb 20 2017/ Rain and isolated thunderstorms continue to push off to the east, slightly ahead of schedule, with the upper level trough now along the Rio Grande Valley. An upper level trough currently near the Big Bend moves across our area today. Ahead of the trough, a band of showers and thunderstorms producing moderate to heavy rains with a trailing area of light to moderate rains and isolated thunderstorms gradually moves off to the east. The heaviest rains will be near the Coastal Plains to along the Highway 77 corridor during the predawn hours with an additional 1 to 3 inches of rain expected, causing some minor flooding. Tonight into Tuesday, the upper level trough slowly closes off and moves to the lower Mississippi Valley/Central Gulf Coast while an upper level ridge builds into Western Texas.
Added the remainder of the South Plains to the rangeland fire danger statement given wind trends across the region behind the cold front. /issued 413 AM CST Mon Feb 20 2017/ An upper level trough axis will pass overhead today after yesterday's disappointing precipitation event. Strong subsidence and atmospheric drying will occur today and tonight in the wake of this trough leading to a day of full sun. A cold front will move through the area later this morning and will bring brisk north to northwesterly winds.
The winds aloft are also playing a roll in development of a precipitation shadow over the lower Snake Plain, which will persist for much of the day. Mountains will see precipitation through the day and do expect showers to fill in late this afternoon into the evening across lower elevations as an upper trough slides through n-central Oregon.
Upper level low pressure will slowly move east through northern Texas tonight. A trough axis will extend north from this feature through eastern Kansas/western Missouri and continue into the western Great Lakes. This would most likely occur across southeastern Kansas and western Missouri near the back edge of the cloud shield associated with this upper level low.
This activity is part of a larger train of moisture advecting from the eastern Pacific and Gulf of Mexico, ahead of a deepening neutral-tilt upper trough moving into the Central Plains. The upper level system is in the early beginnings of becoming a cutoff low as a broad upper level trough continues to cross into the Pacific Northwest.
Dunn /ISSUED 542 AM CST Mon Feb 20 2017/ /12Z TAFs/ With the upper level low still to our west and deep south to southwest flow above the cool surface layer, additional areas of rain are developing and spreading north this morning. The upper level trough responsible for the convective weather still remains west of the forecast area. An enhanced area of ascent appears to be lifting north along the eastern flank of the upper trough. Rain will shift east of all counties mid to late afternoon as the upper trough continues trekking east across the state. The upper level system is progged to transform into a cut-off low Tuesday before shifting east-southeast across the northern Gulf.
An upper level ridge of high pressure and continued low level southerly flow will keep record warmth in place across the Mid South today. /issued 354 AM CST Mon Feb 20 2017/ Strengthening southerly flow will prevail over the Midsouth today, in advance of an approaching longwave upper trof over the southern plains. North MS will likely receive the most rain on Tuesday, near the northeast quadrant of a forming closed upper low.
/issued 340 AM CST Mon Feb 20 2017/ The axis of the upper trough is directly overhead this morning and will continue shifting east today. Weak ridging builds in through midweek and will combine with a mid level thermal ridge to boost temperatures well above normal.
/issued 357 AM CST Mon Feb 20 2017/ (Today and Tonight) Today will mark the start of another warming trend which will continue until the next cold front late week. Highs this afternoon, under mostly sunny skies, will be well above normals for this time of year and range from the lower to mid 70s. Tonight, lows will range from the lower to mid 40s.
210 PM EST Mon Feb 20 2017 CWA enjoying another abnormally warm late afternoon/evening with some places paced to get near record highs in the mid to upper 70s (see climate section below) as ridge-dominated regime continues.
Otherwise, could see isolated thunderstorms across north Louisiana and south Arkansas later this afternoon as upper-trough migrates east. Winds have been erratic this morning with the initial wave of convection over the western half of the region, but the trend will be toward a more southerly component before a cold front shifts east across the area later on tonight.
Nothing in the way of cooler air behind this boundary and this will be the start of a very mild and dry week.
309 PM CST Mon Feb 20 2017 Water vapor imagery shows the large upper low spinning across much of Texas this afternoon with moisture continuing to stream northward across much of East Texas. With the upper low slow to move eastward.
The latest water vapor loop shows an upper level trough axis across Texas and northern Mexico. There are some light echoes on radar data along the Highway 77 corridor and we will hold on to a low chance for showers for the next few hours across this region. Otherwise, a cold front will sweep across the region tonight, dropping overnight lows into the mid 40s to lower 50s.
1142 AM CST Mon Feb 20 2017 Continued warm but more active weather is in store today as an upper level trough and Pacific front approach from the west.
With the upper ridge overhead, still looking for high temperatures to hit the low 70s today. Increased cloud cover slightly for this afternoon as it looks like the high clouds will stick around this afternoon per model guidance and current satellite.
Models indicate the low and mid level height gradients strengthening as evidenced by the 850 mb and 700 mb Craig to Casper height gradients and 700 mb winds progged. Subsidence also showing healthy trends, thus it appears that high winds again will be likely beginning late this evening over the I-80 Summit and nearby foothills, as well as over much of the lower elevations east of a Douglas to Laramie line late tonight, so we have upgraded high wind watches to high wind warnings.
Highest snowfall still on target for the higher elevations of the central mountains.
An amplified upper level trough will cross the Plains today and into the Lower Mississippi River Valley tomorrow.
325 PM CST Mon Feb 20 2017 Forecast highlights in the short term period will be chances for a mix of light rain, freezing rain or sleet tonight across the northwest and north central. Thermal profiles suggest a mix of light freezing rain, rain, or possibly sleet.
The upper level trough axis extended from the western High Plains south into the Big Bend of Texas this morning at 0830Z. Short term high resolution models continue to move the upper trough axis eastward with the trough axis moving through eastern Kansas this evening. 925mb-850mb winds will continue to veer to the southwest through the morning as the mid and upper level trough move east. This evening the front will move off to the east into Missouri and the upper level trough axis exits eastern Kansas around 06Z Tuesday.
This will lead to slightly cooler temps for Thu, with temps south of the stalled frontal boundary remaining well above normal. Meanwhile clearing skies will spread across central Kansas today with northwest winds behind surface cold front.
Forecast highlights in the short term period will be morning fog, chances for light rain or freezing rain, and continued mild temperatures. Currently, strong mid level S/WV trough lifting north-northeast into the Northern Plains. With temperatures near freezing and road surface temperatures at or just below freezing, will maintain a mention for freezing rain in the forecast this morning until we warm up later. Thermal profiles suggest either sleet or light freezing rain.
but should strengthen to around 15 kts rather fast Tues mrng as strong LLJ core dvlps on backside of strong trough.
1254 PM EST Mon Feb 20 2017 Spring like conditions will continue through the end of the work week as a strong upper level ridge remains in place. Lake breeze kicking in now keeping temperatures near the shore a bit cooler. A strong upper level ridge now centered over the Mid Mississippi Valley will shift east and move over the forecast area today. With the clouds think temps will be a couple of degrees cooler than yesterday. temps will only be a couple of degrees cooler than today.
346 PM CST Mon Feb 20 2017 Areas of rain along with embedded showers and an occasional thunderstorm or two continue moving northward across much of Southeast Texas this afternoon as the mid/upper level trof axis slowly edges eastward across the state. Any fog that does develop will burn off in the morning, and then a cold front will move through the area during the day with winds shifting to the northwest behind the boundary.
1225 PM CST Mon Feb 20 2017 A large upper level trough will move east across Arkansas from this evening through the overnight hours. but 3-4 hours of persistent rainfall is possible as the upper level trough/storm system moves in. Winds are expected to veer to the west-northwest as the upper trough approaches as a weak Pacific-type cold front moves across the state ahead of the heaviest rainfall. Latest water vapor imagery continues to indicate the eastward progression of an upper trough approaching the Big Bend area, along with nearly phased, smaller amplitude energy pushing into the central plains.
Due to the slow cloud breakup, the high temperature forecast for this afternoon has taken a downward turn.
325 PM CST Mon Feb 20 2017 The strong upper level ridge that brought near record heat to the Mid South this afternoon will move east this evening as a deep upper level trough approaches and cuts off as an upper low over the lower Mississippi Valley.
A cold front Tuesday night will usher in a period of cold unsettled weather through the end of the week. A mid level ridge axis has shifted east of the forecast area this morning, allowing a moist and mild southwesterly flow to overspread the region. The majority of valley rain will fall north of I-80 across areas favored in southwesterly flow, as well as the higher terrain further south into the central and southern Wasatch.
1242 PM EST Mon Feb 20 2017 High pressure will drift slowly east across the region today. Morning fog will give way to afternoon sunshine and warmer temperatures. A very weak cold front will move through on Tuesday, allowing for scattered rain showers. Northern stream upper trough to track through the northern plains today and though the Great Lakes Tuesday. NAM soln phases this northern system with a southern upper low and therefore is a little slower and much more robust with pcpn event. In waa pattern mild temperatures to continue tonight with lows from the mid 40s northeast to the lower 50s southwest.
An upper level trof is exiting the state to the east this morning, and an upper level ridge will be building over the area today and into tonight. Temps today will be above average, with highs mostly in the 60s acrs the southeast plains and in the upper 40s through the lower 50s in the high valleys.
226 PM MST Mon Feb 20 2017 Upper trough across the central CONUS has shifted east of the CWA with upper ridging building back in. An upper trough will push into the western CONUS Tuesday into Tuesday night.
What does this all mean for us? Looks like mild conditions will continue for a few more days with isolated to scattered showers favoring the high country through midweek.
High pressure will remain in control tonight but will be slowly moving off to our east due to an incoming closed off low. Highs will be cooler with the increased cloud cover, mid to upper 60s are expected.
Medium Water vapor animation shows the northward moisture transport from the southern Plains ahead of the mid level trough axis. Medium Low level frontal forcing and influence of mid level wave shift east early with a period of mid level ridging and dry westerly flow.
329 PM EST Mon Feb 20 2017 High pressure and clear sky will only gradually give way to increasing clouds into Tuesday.
Breezy conditions are expected at times through mid-week with cooler temperatures occurring during the second half of the week.
230 PM EST Mon Feb 20 2017 High pressure will build overhead through tonight. Cooler air will seep south tonight into Tuesday.
/Issued 1207 PM CST Mon Feb 20 2017/ A cold front continues to move south of the region and winds are strong as high pressure is building into the area.
Low level jet at 850 mb of 30-40 kts has now overspread the area ahead of a vigorous and sharp mid/upper level trof advancing east across west Texas. Line further to the west more in line with surface trof and associated low level convergence. Rain chances then diminish Tuesday as the mid/upper low advances across south Louisiana then dips southeast into the north- central gulf.
803 AM PST Mon Feb 20 2017 A storm system moving across northern and central California will spread some clouds and periods of light precipitation into northern portions of the forecast area through Tuesday, otherwise partly cloudy and warmer.
103 PM EST Mon Feb 20 2017 High pressure will build across the region later today through early Tuesday.
This will phase with a progressive trough across the northern Rockies today. This trend should continue this morning with the highest chance of rainfall over the eastern CWA through mid morning.
340 PM CST Mon Feb 20 2017 Local 88Ds show a broken line of heavy showers/thunderstorms associated with a mid-level disturbance and weak sfc trof crossing the forecast area at this time. The chance for showers will persist into Tuesday, albeit a slimmer shot, until the low and primary sfc cold front gradually push through the region. Another low aloft will help dig a mid/upper-level trof through the Rockies late in the week.
1207 PM CST Mon Feb 20 2017 A cold front continues to move south of the region and winds are strong as high pressure is building into the area.
251 PM EST Mon Feb 20 2017 High pressure will linger across the region through the rest of this week.
403 PM EST Mon Feb 20 2017 High pressure will cross the region tonight through early Tuesday then move east later Tuesday.
/Issued 1004 AM EST Mon Feb 20 2017/ Only minor trend adjustments to near term dewpts and sky cover with just some cirrus across the area today as regime staying ridge dominated. Another unseasonably warm day as the H5 ridge moves over the CWA with max temps approaching record values today. This ridge will move off the east coast with the next short wave, currently over the southern plains, moves into the southeast Tuesday. With a low level east flow Tuesday, max temps will be slightly cooler, but still above normal.
The ridge will begin to break down tonight ahead of the low approaching the area.
Upper ridge axis will shift east of the area tonight. Winds will veer to the se with above normal temperatures persisting as highs reaching the lower 80s inland and mid/upper 70s coast.
405 PM EST Mon Feb 20 2017 High pressure will extend over the area from the north into Tuesday.
146 PM CST Mon Feb 20 2017 Upper trough pushing across TX today with high pressure building in behind it.
303 PM EST Mon Feb 20 2017 High pressure and clear sky will only gradually give way to increasing clouds into Tuesday.
500 PM EST Mon Feb 20 2017 High pressure will crest over the area tonight before gradually shifting on Tuesday.
Main mid/upper level trough axis currently to the west of the CWA is prog to shift east across the area tonight and pull away from the area on Tuesday. A weak front should slide south across TX on the back side of this trough late tonight into Tuesday morning and push across the CWA during the day. higher surface moisture values /due to recent rainfall/ may impact true heating potential and current forecast values may be a little on the high side. Typically a weak west flow late in the night would allow for even cooler temps. Slightly cooler temps expected Tues Night as boundary layer moisture decreases further.
1243 PM EST Mon Feb 20 2017 High pressure and dry weather is forecast through Tuesday with unsettled weather from Tuesday night through the end of the week. The upper ridge axis will also be in the area. A southern stream trough will close off over the Northern Gulf of Mexico by late Tuesday. Temperatures will continue above normal with highs in the low to mid 70s.
304 PM CST Mon Feb 20 2017 Winds behind the cold front, as previously mentioned, increased to 30 to 35 kts though we will see speeds taper off within the next couple of hours.
1246 PM EST Mon Feb 20 2017 High pressure has built into the area and will allow for VFR conditions to continue through the period.
SHORT TERM (Tonight through Tuesday Night): 500mb trough across west Texas and northern Mexico this afternoon will move across the state into east TX and across the middle and lower TX coast tonight. With the 500mb low/trough across Louisiana and the northwest Gulf of Mexico Tuesday. Patchy fog will develop across the eastern portions of the CWA late tonight into early Tues morning before a trough/front moves through the area Tues morning reinforcing the drier air across the area.
The upper ridge will continue to scoot east through the day, and as this occurs, a trough will dig south across the panhandle of Texas. Latest trends suggest the northward extent of the fog will be limited and have confined the advisory to locations along/south of the Highway 84 corridor. The southern end of the trough is expected to cut off from the primary westerlies and form a closed low that will slowly move across the region early this week. While a few showers could moving into western portions of the forecast area late this afternoon, the greater rain threat should hold off until tonight as the preceding ridge will tend to delay the onset of showers.
/Issued 339 AM CST Mon Feb 20 2017/ The full-latitude upper-level trough will continue to cross the area over the next 24 hours.
257 PM CST Mon Feb 20 2017 Upper-trough sparking convection with embedded thunderstorms across northeast Louisiana and southern Arkansas this afternoon in an area that is slightly more unstable than east Texas and Southeast Oklahoma where earlier rainfall has modified the airmass. Upper-trough to swing east across the ArkLaTex overnight and deepen into a closed low.
829 AM PST Mon Feb 20 2017 A storm system moving across northern and central California will spread some clouds and periods of light precipitation into northern portions of the forecast area through Tuesday, otherwise partly cloudy and warmer.
Otherwise, expecting warmer temperatures on Monday along with height rises associated with a building ridge. A large trough over the western U.
/issued 944 AM EST Mon Feb 20 2017/ High pressure dominates the weather over the eastern half of the U. High pressure has set up over the eastern half of the U.
A cold front will arrive before daybreak, but the light winds and weak dry advection behind it will delay the improvement in visibility. The upper level trough responsible for the convective weather still remains west of the forecast area. An enhanced area of ascent appears to be lifting north along the eastern flank of the upper trough. Rain will shift east of all counties mid to late afternoon as the upper trough continues trekking east across the state. The upper level system is progged to transform into a cut-off low Tuesday before shifting east-southeast across the northern Gulf.
While 925 MB temps will drop behind the cold front, good northwesterly mixing winds should produce highs in the 50s and low 60s.
Early this morning, a mid- level trough was noted across the Great Lakes region with ridging aloft over the western CONUS. Lows will drop into the lower 20s.
632 AM EST Thu Dec 29 2016 A cold front will cross the area this morning and move off the coast by early this afternoon.
With good push of warm advection ahead of the low, temperatures could be tricky so will stay consistent with inherited temperatures.
Winds should slowly decrease this evening as an upper low rotate in some low level moisture and weak lift.
/issued 327 AM CST Thu Dec 29 2016/ Cold front currently near the Pecos River surging southward and should be heading into northern Mexico by sunrise. Forecast soundings and MOS guidance indicate the potential for a mixture of rain, freezing rain and sleet across the Guadalupe Mountains and especially the Davis Mountains tonight.
As a result, have issued a wind advisory for the higher elevations of the Sisseton hills into western Minnesota. As the ridge passes to the east, we engage a more southwesterly low level flow for Friday. A low moving across North Dakota will increase the low level gradient. As the trof develops over the western conus this weekend, energy gets kicked e-ne across the Central/Northern Plains.
Cold front has passed entirely through Middle Tennessee, with strong NW winds now advecting cooler, drier air into the mid state.
533 AM CST Thu Dec 29 2016 12Z TAFS A cold front will continue to push through the area from north to south this morning. /issued 450 AM CST Thu Dec 29 2016/ Current sfc analysis shows the cold front about to enter the nrn portions of the forecast area. The cold front will continue moving swd through the forecast area over the next few hours with the bulk of the precip expected to stay to our east where better moisture/lift is progged. Much cooler temps can be expected tonight with overnight lows dropping to the upper 30s nern zones/lower 40s elsewhere.
Cold front passage taking place early this morning will result in a breezy and dry day for South Central Texas resulting in some elevated fire weather concerns and near advisory level wind impacts. Local terrain effects with due northerly winds as expected typically result in wind maxima being located along the I-35 corridor between Travis and Bexar counties and it is in those locations that the higher wind speeds, potentially briefly exceeding the 26 mph advisory threshold, could be seen.