Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
123 PM EDT Sat Oct 23 2021 Update/Marine - Rain late in the weekend and again mid-week as upper troughing prevails - We have issued a frost advisory for areas near and east of US-131, as far north as Montcalm and Clinton counties for Sunday morning. We are expecting skies to clear enough this evening to allow temperatures to fall into the lower 30s. The typical colder locations may get just below freezing for an hour or so but it did not seem that this would be a killing freeze. Upper low bringing some scattered showers early this morning, which will diminish as the low moves away this afternoon and evening.
340 PM CDT Sat Oct 23 2021 A warm front over The Missouri Bootheel will continue to lift northward across the region today. Lows will be in the low to mid 60s tonight. At the surface, a low pressure system will be over northern Missouri Sunday evening, with a trailing cold front.
Storms have been elevated/high based north of a surface warm front that is now close to the MO/AR border. Tonight-early Sunday morning: The warm front will lift north this evening and overnight with a capped warm air mass spreading over the region.
205 PM EDT Sat Oct 23 2021 Isolated showers are possible through the afternoon with a trough of low pressure. More widespread rain is expected Sunday afternoon and night with a warm front. Other than isolated early evening showers with vorticity advection, dry weather is expected for most of tonight as low level ridging builds across the Upper Ohio Valley region.
143 PM EDT Sat Oct 23 2021 Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb closed low near James Bay in an embedded trough over the ern U. and a trough on the west coast.
This will drive warmer conditions over the northern Rocky Mountain region with increasing southerly flow across the higher terrain. The highway 95 corridor from Riggins to Whitebird Idaho will have the strongest sustained winds and risk of higher gusts.
Otherwise, west to southwest breezes will increase this afternoon, and will stay elevated across the high terrain tonight.
1253 PM CDT Sat Oct 23 2021 For the 23/18Z TAF period, a mix of MVFR and VFR cigs are observed early this afternoon as a warm front continues to work its way NE across the region. /issued 1131 AM CDT Sat Oct 23 2021/ A warm front continues to quickly advance NE across the region this morning with abundant low clouds lifting northward along the front. Otherwise, still expect some isolated to widely scattered convection later this afternoon mainly across our southern zones with the abundance of low-level moisture and increasing instability south of the warm front. /issued 852 AM CDT Sat Oct 23 2021/ Here is a quick update to note a Dense Fog Advisory has been issued for all of Deep East Texas through 10 AM as visibility continues to drop this morning along an advancing warm front.
VWP data continue to show 25-35kt WSW low level jet across the region and some renewed development on the western and southern flank of the ongoing convection is likely to continue through early afternoon, otherwise the highest rain chances are likely to remain just north of the forecast area.
A transitory ridge will pull across the area Sunday with mainly dry conditions. After 21Z Sunday, there could be some precipitation pulling into far western Wyoming from some weak diffluent flow ahead of the strong upper low off the Pacific Northwest. The trough will move onto the Pacific shore and deepen. Combined with a sharp ridge over the Plains, this pattern will produce strong southwesterly flow across the forecast area.
Highs today range from around 80 well inland to the lower 80s elsewhere, then highs on Sunday will be in the lower to mid 80s.
High clouds will work in from the southwest and west starting Sunday afternoon with the approach of the broader trough and a slug of moisture moving around its periphery.
1136 AM CDT Sat Oct 23 2021 A deep upper low retrograding from James Bay today is keeping chilly cyclonic flow over the region. These clouds have introduced some temperature forecast complexities, with temps underneath holding a bit warmer. Will be watching a developing system over the Central Plains heading into tonight as a pronounced upper trough crosses the Four Corners region. Developing isentropic ascent north of a warm front from eastern KS to southern OH will begin to spread northward into our area late tonight.
As this occurs, a surface cold front is expected to be moving into northwest Oklahoma. By this time models still indicate a chance for storms to develop southward along the cold front across portions of eastern into southeastern Oklahoma. Instability and wind fields will be favorable for severe storms Sunday afternoon and early evening in this area before storms and cold front exit to the east.
Another low pressure system will rapidly deepen of the Pac NW coast on Sunday.
Otherwise, breezy and warm conditions will continue over much of the region, as fairly flat & weak upper level ridging and warmer southerly flow persists through Sunday.
Temperatures so far after a slow start have warmed into the low/mid 70s with light mostly SE winds. Clouds preceding a develop area of low pressure east of the southern Rockies for the most part should stay north of the region in the evening. High temperatures despite an increase in clouds should warm into the mid 70s to around 80 - above seasonable norms in the lower 70s.
154 PM EDT Sat Oct 23 2021 High pressure moves across the area today into Sunday.
An area of low pressure and associated frontal boundary will bisect western Kansas and move through the area this afternoon into the overnight period. A push of cooler air is expected to move into western Kansas overnight shifting winds to the north with breezy conditions expected across much of the area tomorrow afternoon. As this system collides with moisture in the lower parts of the atmosphere, cloudiness is expected to increase with mostly cloudy skies expected overnight.
Expect MVFR CIGS to persist throughout the forecast period at the TAF sites as a warm front slowly moves northward overnight. The coverage and duration of any convection in the vicinity of the TAF sites after 6Z remains somewhat uncertain as do the CIGS since there is some potential for the warm front to move north of the TAF sites which could raise CIGS into the VFR category for a time later tonight.
137 PM PDT Sat Oct 23 2021 Dry and slightly warmer temperatures are in store for Sunday.
207 PM MDT Sat Oct 23 2021 Weak warm front is moving through the area today and tonight.
1141 AM EDT Sat Oct 23 2021 Isolated showers and unseasonably cool weather is expected today under a crossing trough of low pressure. More widespread rain is anticipated on Sunday with a crossing warm front. Most of the showers continue to exit the region as the axis of a crossing upper trough shifts ewd. The associated warm front will lift northward through the Ohio River Valley as flow aloft becomes more zonal.
The upper level trof looks to be on top of us tomorrow and this will see an increase in storm activity across the region.
A very moist flow arrives on Sunday as a warm front moves northeast and brings widespread precipitation. Widespread rain will taper to showers Sunday afternoon in the lower elevations.
Southerly winds increasing to 10 to 20 knots after 17Z through the end of the TAF period in advance of a strong cold front set to sweep northwest to southeast across the forecast area just after the end of the TAF period.
Winds will gust around 25mph Sunday, and perhaps 35 or 40mph Sunday night as showers and scattered storms approach ahead of a cold front.
An inverted trough axis will be located just offshore of south Florida and toward the Bahamas early, before lifting northward, brining with it deep moisture into east central Florida through the day. At the same time, a high pressure off the coast of the Carolinas will shift eastward as an area of low pressure crosses the Great Plains and into the Ohio Valley. Some locally heavy rainfall is possible, especially in the areas where the highest rain chances are drawn. Afternoon high temperatures will be in the low to mid 80s along the coast and mid to upper 80s inland under partly to mostly cloudy skies. An inverted trough axis will be located just offshore of south Florida and toward the Bahamas early, before lifting northward, bringing with it deep moisture into east central Florida through the day.
/issued 340 PM CDT Sat Oct 23 2021/ A warm front over The Missouri Bootheel will continue to lift northward across the region today. Lows will be in the low to mid 60s tonight. At the surface, a low pressure system will be over northern Missouri Sunday evening, with a trailing cold front.
Added a wind advisory for the lower Hells Canyon and Salmon River region, including the Highway 95 corridor between Whitebird and Riggins for mid morning Sunday into Sunday afternoon. Gusts to 45 mph are expected in the lower elevations, with higher speeds in the terrain. This will drive warmer conditions over the northern Rocky Mountain region with increasing southerly flow across the higher terrain. The highway 95 corridor from Riggins to Whitebird Idaho will have the strongest sustained winds and risk of higher gusts.
An upper-level trough shifts east across the Northern Plains tonight.
909 PM EDT Sat Oct 23 2021 Widespread rain is expected Sunday afternoon and night with a warm front.
Otherwise, winds diminish across the region through this evening with the loss of daytime heating and mixing of the lower atmosphere. High clouds will work in from the southwest and west starting Sunday afternoon with the approach of the broader trough and a slug of moisture moving around its periphery.
A cold front will move through the NE OK sites mid afternoon, however any TSRA chances will be east of those sites. and its attendant cold front. Cold front is expected to push into northeast OK around 18z Sunday, with scattered storms eventually developing along the boundary by mid afternoon.
950 PM EDT Sat Oct 23 2021 Water vapor imagery highlights a negatively tilted trough axis stretching southeast away from Texas. Southern portions of this trough continue to shed to the east across the Gulf of Mexico. A weak, broad dome of high pressure will remain entrenched across the Atlantic, with the associated ridge axis extending across Central Florida.
GAH AFTERNOON DISCUSSION: Weak warm front is moving through the area today and tonight.
Skies clear somewhat during the afternoon as subtle ridging occurs ahead of the next system, but then another round of clouds and precipitation is forecast to push into the western mountains Sunday night.
518 PM MDT Sat Oct 23 2021 Current surface map places high pressure across central Canada into the Upper Midwest. Return flow on the west side of the high is bringing breezy southeast winds across the forecast area.
South winds will stay up thru the night as low pressure continues to organize over the southern High Plains. A cold front will move through the NE OK sites mid afternoon, however any TSRA chances will be east of those sites. and its attendant cold front. Cold front is expected to push into northeast OK around 18z Sunday, with scattered storms eventually developing along the boundary by mid afternoon.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 51 76 59 75 51 / 0 0 30 70 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 49 77 58 73 52 / 0 0 10 80 30 Oak Ridge, TN 49 75 57 71 51 / 0 0 20 80 20 Tri Cities Airport, TN 47 77 52 71 50 / 0 0 10 80 60.
657 PM EDT Sat Oct 23 2021 Isolated showers are possible into this evening with a trough of low pressure. More widespread rain is expected Sunday afternoon and night with a warm front. Other than isolated early evening showers with vorticity advection, dry weather is expected for most of tonight as low level ridging builds across the Upper Ohio Valley region.
816 PM CDT Sat Oct 23 2021 High pressure was situated from AL northeast through the central Appalachians. This is keeping wind flow very light or calm over central and eastern portions of the TN valley where a modified ridge-valley split in temperatures will result. The pressure gradient advancing east into the lower MS valley will keep a southeast-south flow of 3-5kt over far northwest AL. This will be just enough to result in temperatures staying several degrees warmer overnight in the far western counties. High temperatures despite an increase in clouds should warm into the mid 70s to around 80 - above seasonable norms in the lower 70s.
Upper-level flow transitioning to southwesterly ahead of an intensifying upper trough moving out of the central Rockies onto the plains Sunday through early Monday. Dry airmass in place currently gets slowly modified as the low-level flow turns southeasterly Sunday/Sunday night. As this occurs, showers and storms will develop ahead of a trailing cold front that is expected to enter northwest GA by early Monday evening.
Otherwise, today will be a rather warm day with cooler temperatures moving in behind an approaching cold front. As the upper wave moves across the central plains today, a cold front will enter Oklahoma. Outside of northwest Oklahoma, most areas are expected to warm up well above normal before experiencing the cooling effects of the cold front.
Fog should likely then dissipate as the low level winds become northwest and drier air advects in. Higher elevations will see snow showers while the lower elevations will see predominantly rain showers. Sunday, a ridge builds over the Rockies, clearing out skies and leaving a pleasant, seasonable fall day. As the ridge treks east on Monday, expect temperatures to be well above normal across the CWA.
VFR will prevail through the period as high pressure remains in control. Garuckas Chattanooga Airport, TN 76 59 75 51 66 / 0 30 70 10 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 77 58 73 52 62 / 0 10 80 30 10 Oak Ridge, TN 75 57 71 51 62 / 0 20 80 20 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 77 52 71 50 58 / 0 10 80 60 10.
Behind the front we are seeing moisture wrap around the low and fog and low clouds have developed from Sublette to Hays. Once the low moves into northeast Kansas we should see skies quickly clear and be left with sunny conditions for the afternoon hours. Lows will range from the upper 30s in the north to the lower 40s in the south.
A briefly zonal 500 mb flow will yield to mid-level high pressure that will build in from the west.
As the system shifts into the Mississippi Valley later today, weak ridging will overspread the area bringing quiet dry conditions back to the area through tomorrow.
Winds will gust around 25mph Sunday, and perhaps 35 or 40mph Sunday night as showers and scattered storms approach ahead of a cold front. Owing to the time of the cold frontal passage (late Sunday night and Monday morning), the risk of severe storms here in Middle Tennessee is relatively low.
308 AM EDT Sun Oct 24 2021 Synopsis/Discussion/Aviation/Marine - Rain begins tonight into Monday with another rain event late in the week us upper troughing prevails - Heavy rain event across southern Lower Michigan tonight into Monday. There is some elevated instability as well along and north of the surface warm front so embedded convection is possible across the far southern zones overnight, which would enhance rainfall rates/totals.
Sunday night the cold front begins to approach the region, with this front beginning to move into the region from the northwest sometime on Monday. For temperatures through the period, highs on Sunday will be in the low to mid 80s, with mid to upper 80s expected on Monday.
1041 PM MDT Sat Oct 23 2021 Current surface map places high pressure across central Canada into the Upper Midwest. Return flow on the west side of the high is bringing breezy southeast winds across the forecast area. Upper ridge then builds across the Northern Plains Sunday night/Monday as deep eastern Pacific trough Pacific moves into the western CONUS.
Using the track of the low-level jet as a guide, the best chance for rain will generally be north of I-70. Current FROPA timing is late Monday night, with showers continuing as the main upper low moves over the Great Lakes.
An upper level trough moves out across the Plains dragging a cold front south into northern Texas and a dryline east across western Texas today. The trough will be too far north to impact our weather directly. In wake of the trough passage, a transitory upper level ridge builds toward our area today and over our area Monday. Although there may be forcing by the dryline, subsidence under the ridge will inhibit convective development keeping the area rain free.
A passing low pressure system will cause winds to increase out of the northeast on Sunday through Monday, causing building waves on Lake Superior and perhaps some lake effect showers Sunday night and Monday before winds turn to the southeast.
315 AM CDT Sun Oct 24 2021 Today: Overnight, a warm front lifted north across mid Missouri. By early afternoon, expect a cold front to be moving into western Missouri. The workweek: Things will cool off behind the cold front and Monday morning lows may dip into the 30s again for those in northwest Missouri.
Strong upper wave, currently moving east of the Four Corners region will shift east into the central Plains today with a cold front pushing to near the I-44 corridor by 00Z. It appears that a pre-frontal trough will likely move into northwest Arkansas by mid to late afternoon and should be the focus for initial thunderstorm development ahead of the front. Additional strong to severe thunderstorm development will be likely along the main cold front this evening across portions of southeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas.
High pressure was situated from AL northeast through the central Appalachians. This is keeping wind flow very light or calm over central and eastern portions of the TN valley where a modified ridge-valley split in temperatures will result. The pressure gradient advancing east into the lower MS valley will keep a southeast-south flow of 3-5kt over far northwest AL. This will be just enough to result in temperatures staying several degrees warmer overnight in the far western counties. High temperatures despite an increase in clouds should warm into the mid 70s to around 80 - above seasonable norms in the lower 70s. A brief respite in weather, with cooler conditions returning on Tue, as high pressure spreads across the region.
Late Sunday afternoon into the evening, a strong incoming cold front will trigger a line of showers/thunderstorms that will sweep from northwest Arkansas into central sections of the state. Tonight Through Monday A strong upper low is just north of the Great Lakes with an upper ridge over the Plains. An upper trough will move into the Rockies tonight and this will move through Arkansas Sunday night. An upper ridge will build across Arkansas Monday. A cold front will approach Sunday with increasing moisture ahead of the front. The low level jet will be increasing through the day Sunday and 1500-2000 MLCAPE is expected. Rain should exit east Arkansas by 12z Monday, then high pressure builds over the state.
(Today and tonight) Expect hot temperatures today across the area due to low level southwest flow and a low level thermal ridge just behind the dryline.
High clouds will work in from the southwest and west starting Sunday afternoon with the approach of the broader trough and a slug of moisture moving around its periphery. Rain chances then look to spread somewhat into central and north-central Montana later Monday afternoon into Monday night as a cold front crosses the area and helps draw moisture northward.
The ENE movement of this warm front along with strong warm air advection and a nosing low-level jet have enabled elevated convection this morning across the area.
Locations in central North Dakota are most likely to be on the higher end of total liquid equivalent amounts. At the upper levels, the period begins with low pressure over the eastern Pacific off the Canadian coast.
905 PM PDT Sat Oct 23 2021 Dry and slightly warmer weather is in store for Sunday.
230 AM EDT Sun Oct 24 2021 Subtropical U/L ridge is suppressed well south of the region extending from the western Caribbean to the central Atlantic. Upstream, a strong U/L disturbance will move across the intermountain west inducing a sharp ridge through the Plains. This progressive system will dig through the Plains midweek with the ridge also shifting to the eastern seaboard.
A cold front will move through the terminals during the late morning and early afternoon hours, switching southerly winds to the west and then northwest towards late afternoon.
Ahead of this low pressure system, surface winds have already begun to increase, and will continue to do so throughout the morning/afternoon hours with gusts up to 30 mph possible. The warm front will lift out of our region early this morning, placing us in the warm sector and allowing for daytime heating to take place later today. The cold front will begin to advance east, entering the western portion of the CWA as early as 3pm.
and Monday A low pressure system will approach the mid Mississippi Valley today, then track east through Illinois tonight and towards the southern Great Lakes on Monday. Middle and high clouds will increase today as the low approaches; however, abundant dry air between 750 and 850 mb should keep the region dry. Lows tonight are expected to fall to around 30 across north-central Wisconsin, with lows in the lower to middle 40s across east- central Wisconsin and the lakeshore.
608 AM CDT Sun Oct 24 2021 Today: Overnight, a warm front lifted north across mid Missouri. By early afternoon, expect a cold front to be moving into western Missouri. The workweek: Things will cool off behind the cold front and Monday morning lows may dip into the 30s again for those in northwest Missouri.
845 AM MDT Sun Oct 24 2021 Brief ridging will allow for a dry but gusty day over much of the area today.
Temperatures may cool off enough with the heavier pcpn for a rain/snow mix, mainly for the Mobridge area and points north. With widespread cloud cover, along with limited CAA, current obs across the CWA are in the 40s, with a few spots warmer than the previous forecast high for Sunday. Lows tonight should remain on the warmer side with temps in the 30s.
/issued 425 AM CDT Sun Oct 24 2021/ A cold front will come through the forecast area late tonight into Monday morning bringing with it a round of thunderstorms to the Mid South.
348 AM MDT Sun Oct 24 2021 Brief ridging will allow for a dry but gusty day over much of the area today.
614 AM CDT Sun Oct 24 2021 (Today and tonight) Expect hot temperatures today across the area due to low level southwest flow and a low level thermal ridge just behind the dryline.
We will gradually transition from zonal flow aloft to a building ridge over eastern New Mexico by later tonight. The building ridge to the west and the weakening front will lead to light winds later tonight into early Monday morning. Upper level ridging will quickly amplify across the Great Plains on Monday. But in the wake of the cold front on Sunday, temperatures will generally be similar or slightly cooler.
Much warmer morning across Middle Tennessee versus yesterday at this time with current temperatures in the 50s to low 60s. These warmer temps are thanks to a strengthening 30 knot southwesterly LLJ per the latest KOHX VWP. Potent storm system still on track to pass to our north tonight into Monday, with a QLCS expected to develop along a cold front across MO/AR this evening/tonight. Once the QLCS exits the area on Monday, we get to briefly dry out as a cooler and drier airmass advects into the region.
A weak backdoor cold front across SD this morning should drop south and west and be the focus for light sfc winds, trapped moisture near the sfc and dry air aloft. Thus, the high temperature forecast today and Monday are near the 50th percentile of the NBM. The low temperature forecast tonight is near the 90th percentile- on the warm side of the forecast envelop.
A strong low pressure system off the Pacific Northwest coast and a stream of deep layer moisture will bring strong winds and widespread heavy rain today.