Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Latest upper analysis shows an upper ridge shifting east of the Dakotas as an upper trough approaches the region from the west. Most of the forecast area has seen relatively warm temperatures today although the area around Faith remains in the lower 30s at this time.
Temperatures dropping below freezing may cause some slick spots to develop as snow melt water freezes. Visibilities may drop to less than a mile for several hours until the low level jet and better mixing develops later tonight. Forecast confidence is medium to high: High pressure will continue to exit to the east tonight ahead of an approaching trough. Could see sprinkles or a few rain showers as the trough and associated front move though Friday evening into Friday night.
935 PM EST Thu Jan 25 2018 Tight pressure gradient between strong ridge centered near the Mid-Atlantic coast and lingering frontal boundary south of Florida is producing an elevated E/NE flow across the area in the lower levels. High pressure centered near the Mid-Atlantic coast will maintain a tight pressure gradient across the area, with winds out of the E/NE around 20-25 kt.
720 PM EST Thu Jan 25 2018 Dry high pressure is in control to start the short term period. High clouds start to increase later tonight then the lower level moisture and clouds increase Friday night.
More details: Things got a little warmer and drier than expected this afternoon mainly in our KS zones, with relative humidity values falling solidly into the 15-20 percent range, and actual high temps into the mid-upper 60s. Looking ahead, temperatures will cool on Friday behind a cold front, but it will still be mild for January with highs in the 40s and 50s.
700 PM EST Thu Jan 25 2018 High pressure over the region will move off to the east tomorrow.
Pressure gradient between what's left of the front to our south and high pressure to our north continues to generate breezy northeasterly flow late this evening. The pattern will begin to shift as a mid-level trough sinks through the midwest United States on Friday.
839 PM MST Thu Jan 25 2018 Current satellite imagery shows increasing influx of moisture ahead of the upper trough moving into western CO. The upper trough axis will move across the CWA Friday morning into mid afternoon. The lower wind fields have all southwesterly flow all night into Friday morning for all areas of the CWA. So the moisture associated with the upper trough gets into the western CWA by mid/late evening.
Models recently have been too warm with this current airmass and it looks as though that trend will continue overnight, although the low level flow should pick up in the 925-850 mb area aft 06z.
A Pacific cold front will exit North Central and Southwest Montana this evening.
1037 PM EST Thu Jan 25 2018 Clear to partly cloudy skies will continue this evening before going clear overnight as high pressure crests over the North Country. As the high shifts offshore, warmer temperatures are expected to develop Friday through the weekend, along with the chance for valley rain and mountain snow showers. Ridge axis will drift slowly ewd overnight. Still some NW winds 5-10kts at BTV/MPV, but overall trend will be toward light and variable conditions after midnight with ridge axis bisecting our forecast area by 12z Friday. On Friday the high drifts off to the easy and we start our return to warmer weather. Southwesterly flow builds in leading to temps warming in to the low to mid 20s under partly cloudy skies.
331 PM MST Thu Jan 25 2018 Latest upper analysis shows an upper ridge shifting east of the Dakotas as an upper trough approaches the region from the west. Most of the forecast area has seen relatively warm temperatures today although the area around Faith remains in the lower 30s at this time.
414 PM MST Thu Jan 25 2018 Latest upper analysis shows an upper ridge shifting east of the Dakotas as an upper trough approaches the region from the west. Most of the forecast area has seen relatively warm temperatures today although the area around Faith remains in the lower 30s at this time.
Upper trough moving eastward through our CWA tonight and Friday morning with scattered light snow showers north and isolated snow showers south.
619 PM EST Thu Jan 25 2018 High pressure will allow for dry conditions through the day on Friday.
Overnight lows will be cooler for most areas with readings in the teens and 20s.
Vort max on the backside of the Pac NW trof moving into the CWA this afternoon and evening with showers spreading over the CWA. Short segments/clusters of convection per the higher resolution REFs progs have developed over the CWA moving across the Valley/Foothills into this evening. Storm tops forecast to be up to 20 kft, and this low- topped convection in a high CAPE/shear environment (Norcal standards) is conducive for small hail, and a brief spin-up. A warm front will bring light QPF, and gradually rising snow levels as it moves into the area on Sat. Sun looks dry as high pressure builds over the region with clearing Sun morning leading to morning fog over the Srn Sac Vly.
But as expected, it generally fell apart as it headed east thanks to downslope flow off the higher terrain. Overnight lows will be cooler for most areas with readings in the teens and 20s.
634 PM EST Thu Jan 25 2018 Clear to partly cloudy skies will continue this evening before going clear overnight as high pressure crests over the North Country. As the high shifts offshore, warmer temperatures are expected to develop Friday through the weekend, along with the chance for valley rain and mountain snow showers. We're looking at a whole lot of big bubble no trouble for the next 24 hours as high pressure dominates the region. With high pressure cresting aloft this evening expect a chilly one with temps falling below zero in most locations. On Friday the high drifts off to the easy and we start our return to warmer weather. Southwesterly flow builds in leading to temps warming in to the low to mid 20s under partly cloudy skies.
528 PM CST Thu Jan 25 2018 The main forecast challenge over the short term is temperature as an upper ridge breaks down and a surface cold front comes through. Perhaps the bigger factor on lows will be the 10C+ thermal ridge exiting the area and strong 40kt southwesterly flow at H85. Kept the Platte River Valley cooler as there will be less mixing and more of a drainage effect. The cold front clears the forecast area by 12z, so CAA takes over throughout the day. Kept highs on the cooler end of guidance, especially with the snow pack, resulting in upper 30s panhandle and lower 40s elsewhere. Did introduce schc -SN along the Pine Ridge during the morning for terrain enhanced lift and remnant surface moisture.
This has allowed for temperatures to drop into the low to mid 40s in areas where there are breaks in the high cirrus moving in from the SW.
Lows are expected to stay above freezing tonight as a result of the mixing.
934 PM EST Thu Jan 25 2018 High pressure will allow for dry conditions through the day on Friday.
608 PM CST Thu Jan 25 2018 Over-performing upper low and showers kicking east of the area early this evening, with drier air aloft filling in behind. There are still difference on how far northwest this moisture will push but the general consensus is that the southeastern third to half of the area could see dewpoints climb into the low 40s by sunrise tomorrow. Even with the warmer temperatures, RH values will stay between 15 to 20 percent on the Caprock with near 30 percent for the Rolling Plains and wind speeds will be a bit lower than today which should help a bit with the fire danger.
Overnight lows will be cool, but generally a few degrees warmer than last night.
429 PM MST Thu Jan 25 2018 The forecast area will be under southwest flow aloft tonight ahead of an upper trough and associated cold front that move through Friday.
1020 PM EST Thu Jan 25 2018 High pressure over the region will move off to the east tomorrow.
A cold front will enter northwest Oklahoma late in the TAF period causing a wind shift to northwesterly. By tomorrow evening/night, a cold front will pass by the area. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop along the cold front.
1047 PM EST Thu Jan 25 2018 Strong northeast to east breezes have developed across the Florida Keys and adjacent coastal waters during the last several hours owing to the expansion and intensification of a low-latitude continental anticyclone, currently centered over the Carolinas late this evening. An expansive high pressure cell over the eastern United States will move eastward swiftly, and intensify across the southeastern United States overnight through Friday. The high pressure area will move offshore across the western North Atlantic Ocean this weekend.
Ceilings should remain VFR with the onset of the lower cloud cover and through much of the day with ceilings likely becoming MVFR just beyond this 24hr TAF cycle. /issued 318 PM CST Thu Jan 25 2018/ A se wind of 5 to 10 mph today as high pressure has shifted into the southeast states.
As the high pressure drifts toward the mid-Atlantic coast tomorrow morning, low-level flow will become more easterly, ushering in a more maritime airmass, increasing dewpoint temperatures from the mid 30s into the upper 40s and lower 50s. For tomorrow's temperatures, cool waters currently in the mid 50s, accompanied by gusty onshore winds will keep temperatures cooler along the coast tomorrow afternoon with inland areas reaching the mid 60s or very near current climate normals. Strong high pressure blanketing the U.
548 PM CST Thu Jan 25 2018 High pressure ridge has slipped off to the east and south/southwesterly flow at the surface continued the warm air advection into the region. Temperatures climbing into the 50s ahead of a warm front to the southwest with plenty of sunshine across Illinois today. Tonight, the southerly flow continues and temperatures will remain above freezing overnight, even though the skies will be mostly clear. Concern for the conditions to the southwest today, with highs reaching into the lower 60s, as dwpts fell into the 20s.
1259 PM EST Sat Nov 11 2017 High pressure will build into the area from the north today through Sunday.
142 PM EST Sat Nov 11 2017 High pressure across the Great Lakes will move east off the New England coast Saturday night. This will allow weak a low pressure system to cross the Ohio Valley Sunday afternoon and Sunday night.
Generally zonal flow aloft will prevail across southeast Arizona during the upcoming week in response to strong high pressure centered near southern Baja California and/or near Sinaloa Mexico.
As a cold front moves across the area tonight into Sunday, drizzle or rain chances will end from north to south, with the exception of far southwest Oklahoma and western north Texas.
200 PM MST Sat Nov 11 2017 Some light rain and snow showers will exit the north and east early this evening with clearing spreading from west to east through the evening as weak high pressure moves in across the area tonight and Sunday.
245 PM EST Sat Nov 11 2017 High pressure will crest over the area tonight and Sunday then move east of the region Sunday night.
346 PM CST Sat Nov 11 2017 A cold front continues to work across the Panhandles this afternoon and evening.
VFR flight rules with high pressure dominating for most of the cycle.
106 PM EST Sat Nov 11 2017 High pressure will bring dry weather today. A low pressure area will then track across the area Sunday, bringing showers.
The cloud deck in the east was associated with warm adevection overtop a backdoor cold front. Also worthy of noting was the low level swirl over the northern Gulf of Mexico that was responsible some convection there.
There is a greater reduction in visibility towards the higher elevations across far western NEB into the Panhandle.
Surface temperatures in the mid to upper 30s support mostly drizzle around the Spokane/Coeur d'Alene area with a better chance of flurries for the N Idaho Panhandle and closer to the Canadian border where surface temps are near freezing and forecast soundings show sufficiently cold cloud top temps near -8C.
310 PM EST Sat Nov 11 2017 Arctic high pressure will extend across the eastern United States through Sunday.
At the surface, high pressure is currently located across the Northeastern U. With this increased cloud cover, expect overnight lows will be warmer than the last couple of nights with lows ranging from the low 30s across SW Virginia and NE Tennessee to low 40s across the Southern Valley. With widespread cloud cover and light precipitation throughout the first half off the day, went with cooler daytime temperatures with highs in the mid 40s to low 50s. The area of isentropic lift will push off to the east later in the day on Sunday as an upper level trough and weak cold front approach from the northwest.
406 PM EST Sat Nov 11 2017 High pressure will crest over the region tonight and will shift east on Sunday.
Current sat imagery shows breaks beginning to form in the low cloud deck along the coast, and is eroding westward toward KMFE, and should be thinning within the next 2 hours. As the low clouds depart this afternoon, southeast flow will continue to develop, remaining below 10 knots. Also believe that with an onshore flow resuming today, the lower clouds will be mixed out, leaving only higher cloudiness behind. Isolated to scattered patches of light rain are expected to prevail in the wake of the dissipating inverted trough during the weekend.
An upper level ridge is shifting into ID this morning. A weak front associated with an upper level low in the Gulf of Alaska is approaching the coast. BKN-OVC clouds at 150-250kft associated with the upper level low off the coast will move in this afternoon over all terminals.
216 PM EST Sat Nov 11 2017 Dry Canadian high pressure over the eastern half of the country will move offshore tonight.
The fog could well back up the Yellowstone valley, but at this time, the high res models keep it from Treasure county east. Flow backs tonight and Sunday for a dry and warmer day. An upper trough moves toward the Pacific Northwest coast and allows some energy to swing across Montana for increasing clouds.
High temperatures will top out in the lower to middle 40s. Building upper ridge over the Rockies will edge eastward during the first part of the week.
Overall, a cooler day is expected than yesterday given the aforementioned cloud cover. Current forecast has this accounted for, but made a few tweaks to northwest Arkansas to lower temps a few degrees as those areas had a cooler start to the day and additional warming will be tempered by cloud cover.
Pressure gradient tightens somewhat today as high pressure slides east of the area. An upper level disturbance and cold front will then push towards the area late in the day, and as atmosphere saturates, could see some drizzle/light rain develop over southeast Kansas and western Missouri. On Sunday, front pushes away from the area with high pressure building southward into the region in the afternoon.
1200 PM CST Sat Nov 11 2017 Cold high pressure continued pushing into ND with the high center back in southern Saskatchewan. Saw that warmer air than forecast was making its way into the southwest, so raised temperatures there to the Missouri River in far south central ND. Precip associated with the low has moved well east of the area.
143 PM EST Sat Nov 11 2017 High pressure through tonight.
317 PM CST Sat Nov 11 2017 Skies are mostly sunny across the forecast area this afternoon with temperatures ranging from the the lower 50s to mid 60s. A weak cold front will move across Oklahoma this evening and reach northwest Arkansas by Sunday morning. The cold front will move out of the region Sunday night with a small chance of rain over far eastern sections in the evening.
1110 AM EST Sat Nov 11 2017 Arctic high pressure will extend across the eastern United States through Sunday.
Cold Arctic high pressure over the Mid Atlantic states down the Eastern Seaboard with stalling front over S FL to keep fairly tight pressure gradient over the region with NE-E low level flow in place. Weak inverted trough off the Space Coast to enhance extra lift with some overrunning and enhanced lift aloft.
A compact storm and low pressure trough moved east through southeast Montana today, sending clouds and limited precipitation to areas south of the Missouri River. Generally the melting of snow yesterday produced surface moisture that became freezing fog this morning over mostly the northern areas. The storm drops further south this evening as an upper level ridge moves across Montana tonight. Freezing fog has been persistent today in northeast areas.
146 PM EST Sat Nov 11 2017 Fair and cold conditions will prevail into Sunday as arctic high pressure overhead slides to the east.
The early morning forecast accounted for the current trends well, but made some timing changes to the low rain chances over coastal areas today and tonight by breaking up the forecast into 6 hour periods. There will be a possible thunderstorm or two well offshore but that may not occur until Sunday and Sunday night when the northern jet stream moves in and helps cause some divergent air above the weak baroclinic trough axis left behind from the easterly wave.
However, a cold front will be moving through the area at the same time during the overnight hours. This cold front will only enhance the low stratus across the area especially over the Rolling Plains into the eastern South Plains where low level moisture will be best located. The low clouds will likely persist for a good portion of the daytime on Sunday keeping Sunday a fairly cool day. However, we have sided with the cooler side of guidance for maximum temperatures.
300 PM EST Sat Nov 11 2017 Things are quiet across the CWA at this hour as temps continue to rise through the mid and upper 40s north of I-64, and through the low to mid 50s south of the line. Some light southerly flow is trying to sneak around the back side of retreating high pressure, but overall winds will remain pretty light through the evening into tonight. The resulting lift and moisture transport below 500 mb will allow for precipitation to overspread the region from west to east through the day ahead of a cold front.
243 PM CST Sat Nov 11 2017 At 2 PM, a vigorous short wave trough was moving into the eastern South Dakota. 12z models are in agreement that as the short wave trough will move east southeast through Iowa tonight. With limited ice aloft and temperatures at or above freezing at the surface, the precipitation will be mainly in the form of rain However, on the north edge of this band will have to be watched for a wintry mix. Another thing that will have to be watched is that the dew points are still below freezing, so will have to watch for the potential of freezing rain too. High pressure settles overhead Sunday night with mostly clear skies and light winds resulting.
Readings should only reach into the low 50s at best. A mid level trough axis will pass across northern CO this afternoon as the system passes across eastern MT/WY. Isolated to scattered snow showers will be possible primarily in zones 31 and 33 this afternoon, then increasing mid level subsidence will develop tonight as the system exits and an upper level ridge moves into the Rocky Mountain region. It will be cooler Sunday behind a cold front.
125 PM MST Sat Nov 11 2017 Water vapor shows upper trof working through the Rockies into the Plains, with distinct short wave along the MT/WY border. Short wave/cold front will advance eastward across the region this evening with some associated light rain/snow showers, ending across our eastern zones around midnight. Very mild and dry air expected early this week with flat upper ridge overhead.
226 PM MST Sat Nov 11 2017 Building high pressure aloft will bring mostly dry and breezy conditions to the region through Sunday with temperatures remaining near seasonal averages.
This Afternoon With the right exit region of a 90 knot 250 mb jet beginning to move away from the region, the freezing drizzle is coming to an end north of the Interstate 90 corridor. Due to this the threat of freezing drizzle is waning there too. With the ground frozen, this liquid precipitation is in the form of light freezing rain. For the most part, the highest radar returns have already moved east of the forecast area, so additional accumulation appears minimal. There may be some light freezing drizzle or rain with the loss of ice aloft as precipitation diminishes later this morning, but impacts should be minor given isolated coverage. Thermal profiles show an isothermal layer near freezing developing from the surface to around 800 hPa and with ice aloft, precipitation type should transition to a rain/snow mix.
High pressure over the Appalachian Mountains early this morning is bringing the season's first hard freeze to some areas. The high will move east to the Atlantic Seaboard late today, causing winds to turn southeast. Despite the milder southeast flow, widespread high cloudiness and the low November sun angle will limit highs to the upper 40s and lower 50s today. Some light rain will spread east across Missouri and Illinois, possibly reaching the lower Ohio Valley around sunrise. A weak cold front will pass through during the afternoon and early evening.
445 PM EST Sat Nov 11 2017 High pressure through tonight.
/26/ Latest Rap and Satellite imagery showed westerly flow aloft with mid to upper ridging and a large amplified low level ridge over the Lower Mississippi Valley. Readings prior to dawn were from the upper 30s to the lower 40s. Lows for tonight will be somewhat below normal with readings from the upper 30s to the lower 40s. Any precipitation will be in and out quickly with high pressure at the surface filtering back into the region.
Will see return to IFR/LIFR conditions tonight into Sunday morning as a cold front pushes across the region. The obvious consequence of this uncertainty revolves around the high temperature forecast with MOS holding about a 7-10 degree spread for much of the area between the cooler and cloudier MET and the warmer and clearer MAV. However, southwest surface winds should be pretty efficient in warming temperatures once sunshine arrives, so will swing highs toward the warmer MAV, essentially meeting in the middle. Moving onto Sunday, its forecast is complicated by the arrival of a cold front late tonight.
Gusty winds of 25 to 45 mph mainly over the mountains and Cheyenne Ridge will start decreasing this evening. The disturbance will push a dry cold front down across the area this evening and overnight. Tomorrow's highs will be about 10 degrees cooler than today's readings under mostly clear skies as up upper ridge moves overhead. Surface pressure gradients will increase over the eastern plains as high pressure slips into the Great Plains, creating southerly winds with gusts to 25 mph.
Conditions will briefly improve before sunset, but then deteriorate to IFR-MVFR with nightfall as a cold front moves in with a northerly wind shift.
315 PM EST Sat Nov 11 2017 Fair and cold conditions will prevail into Sunday as arctic high pressure overhead slides to the east.
107 PM EST Sat Nov 11 2017 Dry Canadian high pressure over the eastern half of the country will move offshore tonight.
1235 PM EST Sat Nov 11 2017 Arctic high pressure will extend across the eastern United States through Sunday.
A high pressure was centered over the DC area this afternoon and will move along the northeast coast of the United States tonight into Sunday.
1241 PM EST Sat Nov 11 2017 High pressure through tonight. Another cold front mid week. High pressure will remain in control today. However, overnight lows tonight will be warmer than what we saw this morning, but usual cold spots should still radiate out rather quickly after sunset this evening. Dry weather will continue through the weekend courtesy of high pressure.
1227 PM EST Sat Nov 11 2017 Dry Canadian high pressure over the eastern half of the country will move offshore tonight.