Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
/issued 331 PM CDT MON AUG 29 2016/ (Tonight and Tuesday) Currently, showers and thunderstorms are expanding in coverage across the Permian Basin south through the Lower Trans Pecos and into western Crockett County. Farther east, an upper level low located across the northwestern Gulf of Mexico into East Texas is interacting with a tropical-like moist and unstable atmosphere in the lower levels to produce isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms from the DFW area south into the Hill Country region.
1242 AM EDT TUE AUG 30 2016 High pressure build in through Tuesday night.
1050 PM MDT MON AUG 29 2016 Isolated convection noted over parts of the CWA this afternoon on the northern fringe of an upper low currently over southwestern Colorado. and dissipate entirely this evening as the low levels cool and stabilize. The upper low will weaken and open overnight while an upper ridge builds northeast across Wyoming. This upper ridge then looks to hold across Wyoming into Colorado Tuesday through Weds and should cap off the atmosphere for the most part thus warm and generally dry weather expected across the CWA.
Water vapor loop indicated a short wave trough moving east across the MAN/ND/MN border. Some ridge building was occurring over eastern SD with short wave over eastern CO. cold front through all but far southeastern fcst area at 20z. Temps a few degrees cooler than today but mainly because starting out a bit cooler in the morning.
Moore Filling upper low continues to circulate across northern New Mexico which has put eastern Colorado under deep easterly upslope flow. With filling upper low still lingering of Colorado on Tuesday.
An upper trough will move through Tuesday which will bring rain showers to areas west of the Coast Range and the potential for thunderstorms in the Lane County Cascades.
1040 PM EDT MON AUG 29 2016 A weak cold front will sag southward on today and Tuesday.
Most of the showers and thunderstorms have ended except for the lower parts of East and Northeast Texas where there could be visibility restrictions and ceilings producing brief MVFR categories. Upper low just off the se TX coast will gradually lose influence on our region through midweek, as the upper ridge builds back in across our nrn sections, and the upper low drifts swwd along the coast. Attm, it appears that a Heat Advisory will not be needed due to the isold/brief nature of the higher heat index values.
The CWA remains under broad ridging in association with a weakening ridge over the East Coast. Easterly flow around the ridge has helped to keep relatively drier air in place area wide this afternoon with PWATs below 2 inches.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 70 93 71 92 / 0 10 10 20 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 68 92 69 89 / 0 10 10 20 Oak Ridge, TN 69 92 69 89 / 10 10 10 20 Tri Cities Airport, TN 64 90 66 87 / 10 30 20 20.
610 PM MDT MON AUG 29 2016 Isolated convection noted over parts of the CWA this afternoon on the northern fringe of an upper low currently over southwestern Colorado. and dissipate entirely this evening as the low levels cool and stabilize. The upper low will weaken and open overnight while an upper ridge builds northeast across Wyoming. This upper ridge then looks to hold across Wyoming into Colorado Tuesday through Weds and should cap off the atmosphere for the most part thus warm and generally dry weather expected across the CWA.
713 PM CDT MON AUG 29 2016 Surface cold front is making slow but steady progress eastward this afternoon, currently located from near International Falls to far northeast South Dakota. An upper level ridge will extend from the western portion of the Northern Plains well north into Alberta and Saskatchewan.
Quiet weather continues as high pressure settles over the area.
803 PM EDT MON AUG 29 2016 High pressure build in through Tuesday night.
1208 AM EDT Tue Aug 30 2016 Warm and dry weather is expected until the passage of a mid week cold front. High pressure should maintain dry and warm weather today as it slides east across the northeastern CONUS.
944 PM PDT MON AUG 29 2016 High pressure will bring warmer and dryer weather for the next few days.
619 PM MDT MON AUG 29 2016 Closed mid/upper low is in place over southern Colorado/northern New Mexico, with long moist plume of moisture extending from the Pacific across the Plains. Due to the moist nature of the air mass in place, warm rain processes (skinny CAPE/warmer thermal profiles), and slower individual cell motions, any thunderstorms could produce heavy rain (flash flood threat). Regarding temperatures: After cold front and upper low shift east, air mass will be slightly cooler Tuesday than today. If cloud cover and precip remains similar to today then we may barely warm out of the low 70s over parts of our CWA. Other areas may reach the low 80s assuming the cloud cover thins out enough. I trended the temperature from consensus towards the lower end of guidance as confidence in clearing is low.
Upper level low over northeast MAN will move southeast overnight while upper level ridge over ALTA/SASK will build. Cooler/drier air will move into the area overnight. Water vapor loop indicated a short wave trough moving east across the MAN/ND/MN border. Some ridge building was occurring over eastern SD with short wave over eastern CO. cold front through all but far southeastern fcst area at 20z. Temps a few degrees cooler than today but mainly because starting out a bit cooler in the morning.
Most of the showers and thunderstorms have ended except for the lower parts of East and Northeast Texas where there could be visibility restrictions and ceilings producing brief MVFR categories.
751 PM EDT MON AUG 29 2016 High pressure will be over the area through Tuesday.
Also adjusted the PoP trends with indications of a dry slot moving into the western CWA later this afternoon as the upper low opens up and reaches the area. Low pressure area in eastern OK will lift northeast toward the Ohio river valley today. A brief break in the precip for Tues and Tues night as upper level ridging keeps the region dry.
Short wave ridging overhead today will move east tonight. Meanwhile at the surface, ridging will only deliver a glancing blow to the region but with cooler temperatures due to easterly winds. Upper level winds will begin to back tonight in response to an approaching strong upper level trough currently moving onshore on the west coast. Low level moisture return will begin early Tuesday morning ahead of this trough.
While some upper air features have moved in the past 24 hours, the low clouds have not, and that is by far the main impact on weather over the upper Midwest this morning. The unrelenting cloud cover, light north winds, and light rain will serve to hold temperatures down again, and I have gone slightly under the guidance blend for highs today, in the lower to mid 50s. Tonight, while dry weather will be expected, the low clouds should rule the night again, and lows should only fall to the lower to mid 40s in most areas, much like the current period.
Showers will intensify this morning again as an upper level trough moves across the region with a unseasonably cold air mass aloft. These showers will taper off this afternoon as an upper level ridge builds into the region, remaining in place through most of Tuesday.
08z surface analysis had weak high over the Dakotas with lee trough from western MT into northeast CO. Water vapour loop had departing upper trough east of the CWA taking precipitation along with it. Next upper trough now entering the west coast. Upper trough will be the main weather maker in the short term. Today, upper ridge builds over the CWA in response to upper trough moving into the Rockies. Tonight through Tuesday night, upper trough moves into the plains states with energy splitting as it emerges from the Rockies.
935 AM EDT Mon Mar 27 2017 A series of troughs will move through the area through early Tuesday and possibly trigger some showers and a few thunderstorms. A cold front will move through the area Tuesday night.
Short wave trough moving into eastern Kansas early this morning will reach north central Missouri by late morning and bring an end to light rain and drizzle currently on radar over southeast Nebraska. Some decrease in cloud cover is expected during the afternoon and evening as the system moves off to the east and short wave ridging moves across the area.
732 AM EDT Mon Mar 27 2017 Aviation Low pressure will pull away from Lower Michigan today with showers ending.
0-6KM shear is near the lower threshold for a severe risk, so given all of these factors, expect isolated to scattered mainly afternoon convection, with a few pulse-type strong/severe storms capable of producing hail/wind gusts. 13 Modest southerly flow will continue today between an area of high pressure to the east and an area of low pressure tracking from the Southern Plains northeast toward the Mid Mississippi River Valley. Winds will subside a bit tonight as this low continues to pull away from the area, but are forecast to begin to strengthen again on Tuesday as another low pressure system emerges east of the Rockies.
A low pressure system was approaching the Ozarks with numerous showers and storms ahead of it. As the low pressure continues to move eastward today, and conditions destabilize, the stage will be set for severe thunderstorms. The approaching low pressure will increase deep layer shear to 40-45KT, helping support sustained updrafts and perhaps a few supercells, especially in our western counties.
The threat for severe storms this afternoon and evening remains on track as a broad upper-level trough continues to move eastward from the ArkLaTex. Pre-frontal storms are expected to develop by early afternoon in eastern MS and move into West and Northwest AL as the upper trough axis moves through. With the cold front still to our west and a modest low-level jet in place, additional showers/storms could continue tonight and into Tuesday.
1042 AM EDT Mon Mar 27 2017 More rain is expected tonight and Tuesday as another area of low pressure crosses the region. Only showers remaining in the area are across the WV/MD ridges, so trimmed pops across Pennsylvania and kept showers lingering elsewhere another hour or two. Residual showers will end this morning with passage of a mid level trough axis extending from the parent low now filling north of the Great Lakes. By Monday evening, showers with the next low pressure system are projected out of the west, and can be expected to persist into Tuesday before building high pressure in the wake of that systems cold front invokes suppression from the northwest later in the day.
A low pressure center over the Pacific Northwest will move southeast and bring increasing winds and clouds to northern Arizona today.
We updated lower PoPs for today in eastern Oregon and western-most Idaho as the main trough has shifted east a little faster than expected.
The boundary is forecast to lift back northward as a warm front this morning as a system moves out of the southern plains. There may be a break in the action from mid to late morning depending how quickly we destabilize, but surface based showers and thunderstorms should begin to develop this afternoon as a sharp short wave pushes/pulls the cold front associated with the system across the region.
Subsidence around this low will bring in a drier airmass across South Florida, which in combination with lighter east- northeast winds, look to limit Atlantic shower development. Highs will range from around 80 along the east coast to the low-mid 80s for the Gulf coast and interior.
552 AM MDT Mon Mar 27 2017 Main focus in the short term is the strong upper trough currently seen on WV imagery moving on shore the NW US coast. Models are in good agreement that this trough will dig into the SW US by tonight and form a closed low in/around the four corners region early Tuesday.
with weaker storms driven by low amplitude upper level troughs. A long wave trough is now moving onshore along the west coast and the last in a series of short waves is rounding the bottom of the trough as it moves through. Showers will diminish this afternoon as this system moves out to the east and a long wave ridge builds into the west coast. There will be a break in the action as the ridge dominates the weather picture. This will bring dry and warmer weather to the area Monday night into Tuesday.
926 AM EDT Mon Mar 27 2017 Low level ridge axis from the FL Peninsula will continue NE along the SE U. Highs expected into the lower/middle 80s inland today with Atlc Coast Sea Breeze pushing inland this afternoon and keeping the beaches with highs in the mid/upper 70s.
Near term forecasts have been adjusted to reflect the lower POP chances. Winds will mainly be east to southeast at 5 to 10 mph, then become southwest to northwest at 5 to 15 mph with some gusts to 20 mph into the afternoon behind a cold front.
920 AM MST Mon Mar 27 2017 A Pacific cold front will affect the region this evening through Tuesday with gusty winds and patchy blowing dust.
Widespread light to moderate showers this morning as an upper level trough continues its journey across the region. Showers will slowly taper off west to east over the course of the day as the trough moves east. A ridge begins to move into the region overnight and into Tuesday for a 2-5 degree warmup and clearing skies.
/issued 442 AM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017/ Early morning GOES water vapor imagery showed a closed upper low centered over eastern KS, moving slowly east. Relatively quiet weather will prevail over the Midsouth on Tuesday, following a weak cold frontal passage under low amplitude ridging aloft.
Do not expect those in the northwest and north central to be reaching the ground at this point with forecast soundings showing dry air in the low and mid levels of the atmospheric column.
1013 AM EDT Mon Mar 27 2017 Easterly flow and high pressure continue to dominate tonight. Subsidence around this low will bring in a drier airmass across South Florida, which in combination with lighter east- northeast winds, look to limit Atlantic shower development. Highs will range from around 80 along the east coast to the low-mid 80s for the Gulf coast and interior.
/issued 339 AM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017/ SHORT TERM (Today through Tuesday): An initially zonal 500 mb flow over Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley will become more oriented out of the southwest as closed mid-level low pressure pushes into the Four Corners area.
819 AM EDT Mon Mar 27 2017 More rain is expected tonight and Tuesday as another area of low pressure crosses the region. Only showers remaining in the area are across the WV/MD ridges, so trimmed pops across Pennsylvania and kept showers lingering elsewhere another hour or two. Residual showers will end this morning with passage of a mid level trough axis extending from the parent low now filling north of the Great Lakes. By Monday evening, showers with the next low pressure system are projected out of the west, and can be expected to persist into Tuesday before building high pressure in the wake of that systems cold front invokes suppression from the northwest later in the day.
The pattern of split flow aloft will continue in the extended with all significant upper lows getting pulled into the southern stream.
The low-level jet and some mid- level dry air may produce localized damaging winds. Besides the convection, another unseasonably mild day due to breezy southwest winds ahead of approaching upper trough. Chattanooga Airport, TN 76 59 77 55 / 50 60 50 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 75 57 74 53 / 30 60 50 10 Oak Ridge, TN 75 58 74 53 / 40 70 50 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 75 53 72 51 / 40 60 70 20.
Otherwise, for today, we will see warmer temperatures on average. High pressure will ridge over the area with weak warm air advection developing through the day.
Winds will mainly be east to southeast at 5 to 10 mph, then become southwest to northwest at 5 to 15 mph with some gusts to 20 mph into the afternoon behind a cold front.
519 AM MDT Mon Mar 27 2017 08z surface analysis had weak high over the Dakotas with lee trough from western MT into northeast CO. Water vapour loop had departing upper trough east of the CWA taking precipitation along with it. Next upper trough now entering the west coast. Upper trough will be the main weather maker in the short term. Today, upper ridge builds over the CWA in response to upper trough moving into the Rockies. Tonight through Tuesday night, upper trough moves into the plains states with energy splitting as it emerges from the Rockies.
At the surface, a weak area of low pressure over central OK will move NE and drag a cold front into central Texas later today. At 850 mb, a trough of low pressure extended from southern KS into west central Texas. The trough at 850 mb will move east today and the tail end of the feature will linger over E-SE TX this afternoon. Although fcst soundings not showing a lot of moisture, have some concerns that the trough coupled with daytime heating could trigger a few showers and thunderstorms this afternoon.
/Today through Tonight/ The low pressure system that impacted the state over the weekend has moved northeast into the central Great Lakes region. Theta-e advection and the low level jet preceding the system has brought a few showers north into far southern Iowa. Good mid-level drying will occur from north to south today as the high pressure arrives.
For tonight, strong upper level trough(currently over central California) will move east- southeast into the Southern Rockies by Tuesday morning. As a result, surface pressure falls will develop across the Southern Plains, and a warm front will move north to the I-20 corridor by 12Z.
1057 AM EDT Mon Mar 27 2017 Weak high pressure will move east this morning, allowing low pressure to return, bringing showers and thunderstorms this afternoon through tonight.
As we head into the overnight hours, a more widespread line of showers (with embedded thunder possible) will push through the area as the trough axis crosses overhead. Chattanooga Airport, TN 76 59 77 55 / 60 70 50 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 74 57 74 53 / 50 70 50 10 Oak Ridge, TN 73 59 74 53 / 50 70 50 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 75 53 72 51 / 40 70 70 20.
Upper low is currently spinning east along/north of the Kansas border this morning. Lingering cloud cover in the wake of the system will likely limit the diurnal range in temps, and thus the forecast will be cooler by several degrees from the model consensus.
High pressure ridge to our north is weakening and the axis will slide into central Florida tonight. High pressure ridge extending from offshore the Carolina coast to north FL will settle into the waters tonight while weakening.
Winds will be quite light once again, but with clouds hanging around, temperatures may only cool towards the lower to middle 30s.
1031 AM EDT Mon Mar 27 2017 A warm front will positioned over southern Virginia will track north through the Mid Atlantic through the afternoon. A cold front will cross the area late Tuesday.
Do expect chances for showers to continue at times into Tuesday until the main trough axis slides east and heads downstream of the CWA. The 500mb height pattern shows a nice upper level ridge building across the southwestern U. This will mean drier weather conditions for the region in the midweek along with warmer temperatures. At this time most places can expect highs in the lower to middle 60s.
Cirrus is moving over the FA now and is restricting the ability to see most of the low clouds, so not able to get a good look at the fog. Models show this half of the FA seeing more sun today, and thus, warmer temps. Upper level split flow pattern continues with our area remaining under the northern stream while several upper lows move through the southern stream across the central and southern CONUS.
Water vapor imagery showing upper low over south central Kansas making slow progress east-northeast. Models are very similar mid/upper level low exiting far eastern Kansas early this morning with quick drying following. Later on Tuesday the upper low meandering eastward over the Rockies will begin to advect moisture northward into central and western Kansas with energy ejecting northward into the Central Plains.
657 AM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017 Low pressure area in eastern OK will lift northeast toward the Ohio river valley today. A brief break in the precip for Tues and Tues night as upper level ridging keeps the region dry.
These cigs will linger throughout this morning, slowly lifting back to low VFR status by afternoon with isolated showers possible as a weak cold front advances into the northwest half of the region before eventually stalling along or just south of the I-20 corridor later tonight.
1206 PM EDT Mon Mar 27 2017 More rain is expected tonight and Tuesday as another area of low pressure crosses the region. By this evening, showers with the next low pressure system are projected out of the west, and can be expected to persist into Tuesday before building high pressure in the wake of that systems cold front invokes suppression from the northwest later in the day.
An upper trough will cross the region today through Tuesday.
1101 AM EDT Mon Mar 27 2017 Marine Low pressure will pull away from Lower Michigan today with showers ending.
A low pressure center over the California will move southeast and bring increasing winds, clouds, and showers to northern Arizona today.
12Z Upper air soundings this morning across SE Texas show a decent amount of moisture in the lower levels between 900-850mb, and PWs ranging between 0. Surface observations have dewpoints across the CWA between the mid 60s and into the lower 70s. High temperatures should range between the lower 80s near the coast and into the mid 80s farther inland.
Temperatures will warm into the lower to mid 80s, except close to the coast where the sea breeze should hold readings in the mid to upper 70s.
A trough will generate one last round of showers today before high pressure builds this afternoon bringing drier weather conditions through Tuesday. Even though freezing levels will fall to around 3000-3500 feet, the potential for hail this morning appears to be quite low with very meager CAPE (weak updrafts) and low equilubrium levels, up to 12Kft. Upper level ridging and stable air will build toward the coast this afternoon bringing an end to the shower activity by this evening. Cooler air will settle over the area tonight and frost will be a distinct possibility for interior Mendocino county.
Do see a potential for expanding the end across portions of northeast ND where temps have been just above freezing and some snow melt will add to the low level moisture. Cirrus is moving over the FA now and is restricting the ability to see most of the low clouds, so not able to get a good look at the fog. Models show this half of the FA seeing more sun today, and thus, warmer temps. Upper level split flow pattern continues with our area remaining under the northern stream while several upper lows move through the southern stream across the central and southern CONUS.
To reflect this low confidence, limited the rain chances to 50 percent or less.
Copious cloud cover and increased rainfall chances will keep afternoon highs tomorrow in the lower 90s over the southern half of the CWA and in the mid 90s over the Big Country.
Temperatures throughout the 7 day forecast will remain near normal for the time of year, much cooler than in recent days. Should be a good gradient across the area as cooler and drier air filters in north of the boundary.
236 PM MDT MON JUL 25 2016 Current surface map shows trof across eastern Montana into eastern Wyoming. Then an upper ridge moves over the region, with warmer and drier weather expected for the weekend.
345 PM EDT MON JUL 25 2016 A cold front moves through the region tonight.
227 PM EDT MON JUL 25 2016 Cold front moves across the region and stalls tonight. Cold front to move through the region this afternoon and this evening.
144 PM EDT MON JUL 25 2016 An inland thermal trough and Bermuda high offshore pattern will prevail through the week ahead.