Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Through Monday the low will continue to fill and a new low will develop farther east over upper Michigan. Some freezing drizzle psbl too in parts of north central MN this morning. Across NW and WC Minnesota will extend the winter weather advisory for pockets of residual light snow and possibly freezing drizzle thru the day. Thu - Sun Another short wave/jet streak will move across the area Fri as upper level jet moves down the east side of a building upper ridge in the western US. Upper ridge is progressive and moves across the Northern Plains Sun.
A fairly quiet day is in store across South Texas as high pressure dominates at the surface with weak ridging building in aloft. Highs will be a few degrees cooler on Tuesday with highs topping out in the low to mid 60s.
Much improved weather conditions today as a drier and cooler air mass overspreads the area. The surface cold front has pushed through all of Central Alabama and the rain has ended. Temperatures will be much cooler with highs mostly in the 50s, which is normal for late December.
Temperatures are mainly in the lower 40s with westerly winds 10-15 mph with occasional gusts to 20. Latest surface analysis places a 994mb low pressure over southern Michigan, with a cold front extending through Columbus, OH and south through Charleston, WV and back through Bristol, TN. Expect highs near 50F and lows in the low to mid 30s. New Year's morning will be the coolest of the period with lows dipping down to just below freezing and wind chills in the 20s.
As of 09Z Monday morning a strong mid-latitude cyclone continues to lift northeastward across IA. An extensive stratus shield remains across all of northeast KS, which has yielded slightly warmer temperatures than previously anticipated with values in the low to middle 30s. Decreasing cloud cover will yield a cooler night with lows in the 20s.
331 AM MST Mon Dec 30 2019 Quiet and cold pattern will be in place for the next 36 to 48 hours as upper level low pressure systems to our southwest and northeast keep us in the calm, col region. Light winds and a little more sun may make it "feel" warmer out there today, but temps will still be running 10 to 15 degrees below normal. The above mentioned upper level low pressure systems will be drifting out of view Tuesday night with northwesterly flow aloft becoming firmly entrenched.
Some lingering flurries are possible today in our far north as the mid-level low departs, and should eventually fade as the low continues to lose its influence. Generally teens for lows tonight, noticeably several degrees cooler in the northwest where there is deeper snow pack.
329 AM MST Mon Dec 30 2019 The center of the strong low pressure is along the MN/IA border, with the deformation zone across the eastern half of the Dakotas. Highs today will be in the upper 20s to mid 30s, with the warmer temps along the downsloping eastern/southeastern foothills. Northwest flow aloft will continue through Tuesday, with dry weather and slightly warmer temps. The next trough is progged to dig across the western to central CONUS.
Upper flow remains largely zonal and temps, while cooler than yesterday, will still be above normal with generally mid to upper 50s NW to 60s SE. Tuesday stays dry and ridge dominated with mostly clear skies, though slightly cooler temps close to climo norms.
521 AM EST Mon Dec 30 2019 A cold front will move through the forecast area this morning.
Updated at 257 AM EST Mon Dec 30 2019 Circulation around deep low pressure over Michigan will bring gusty winds, low clouds, and chilly temperatures into the region today. Temperatures will be in the lower and middle 40s for most of the day. Low temperatures will be around the freezing mark with wind chills in the 20s.
401 AM CST Mon Dec 30 2019 A strong mid-upper cyclone is currently centered over southern Minnesota and is forecast to slowly slide east/southeast today and toward the Great Lakes region tonight. Some areas outside of the winter weather advisory may reach wind advisory criteria for a few hours today, but the bulk of the highest wind gusts are forecast to remain across the current advisory area. As the cyclone continues to weaken and move over the Great Lakes region tonight, surface winds will relax and skies will begin to clear from southwest to northeast. A western mid-level trough will amplify as it moves east across the central Plains and extend southward into the southern Plains.
232 AM MST Mon Dec 30 2019 Synoptic Setup: Forecast begins with a ridge over the northeast Pacific That moves onshore over British Columbia and comes to a crest over central Saskatchewan. Northwest of this a pacific trough is developing over the Aleutians Islands. Today through Tuesday: Ridge will slowly slide down the High Plains through these periods generating dry and warming conditions. Highs will go above freezing at times with further snow melt possible.
/issued 354 AM CST Mon Dec 30 2019/ Today will be a cool and quiet day with highs in the 40s/50s and light winds thanks to surface ridging. The upper low currently over southern CA will dig southward over Baja during this time frame before phasing with a trough pushing across the central US.
Upper level low just off the southern California coast is expected to move east across northern Mexico and it should stay too far south to bring us any precipitation.
Current synoptic setup consists of an area of low pressure over northern Indiana/southern Great Lakes Region and an area of low pressure over the Minnesota/Iowa border.
Little if any rainfall is expected today south of the Seven Mile Bridge. A weak cold front will cross the waters on Tuesday.
413 AM MST Mon Dec 30 2019 The center of the strong low pressure is along the MN/IA border, with the deformation zone across the eastern half of the Dakotas. Highs today will be in the upper 20s to mid 30s, with the warmer temps along the downsloping eastern/southeastern foothills. Northwest flow aloft will continue through Tuesday, with dry weather and slightly warmer temps. The next trough is progged to dig across the western to central CONUS.
Through Monday the low will continue to fill and a new low will develop farther east over upper Michigan. Some freezing drizzle psbl too in parts of north central MN this morning. Across NW and WC Minnesota will extend the winter weather advisory for pockets of residual light snow and possibly freezing drizzle thru the day. Thu - Sun Another short wave/jet streak will move across the area Fri as upper level jet moves down the east side of a building upper ridge in the western US. Upper ridge is progressive and moves across the Northern Plains Sun. IFR or lower conditions will continue for a while longer as the low pressure system will continue to weaken over the region.
Some isolated spots in the Hill Country are at or just below freezing. Highs this afternoon will reach the upper 50s to middle 60s with the cooler values in the northern CWA.
Included some VFR CIGS acrs N AR arnd midday as the SRN extent of the low cloud shield is progged to work into that area. Cyclonic flow assocd with this system was ushering cooler and drier airmass into AR on breezy W/NW winds.
350 AM CST Mon Dec 30 2019 Early morning sfc analysis shows our departing cold front now off the mouth of the Mississippi River, well east of the forecast area, while high pressure was centered over cntl TX. With the core of the high moving overhead tonight, could see a light frost tomorrow morning with lows running about 5 degrees normal. After a similar day on Tuesday, onshore flow begins to develop during the day as the high pushes ewd, with cloud cover beginning to increase late in the day and especially through the final hours of 2019.
343 AM CST Mon Dec 30 2019 The large and potent upper level cutoff low pressure system continues to spin above the region today. Overnight, light snow could continue along the Coteau des Prairies and Buffalo Ridge in southwest Minnesota as a pocket of vorticity moves around the western periphery of the cutoff low. Area-wide, temperatures will be a bit cooler overnight, with lows in the low to mid teens.
313 AM CST Mon Dec 30 2019 Dry and breezy northwest wind today as upper low continues to move into the upper Midwest/Great Lakes area.
A high pressure ridge centered offshore is nudging into the area today. A thermal trough and offshore easterly flow will keep mainly clear to partly clear conditions from Cape Blanco southward today. Valley fog and low clouds are likely to return tonight into Tuesday morning as a flat ridge remains over the area.
Stable conditions, with high pressure building over the region, will keep cloud cover in place in most places today.
Satellite imagery shows the closed low dropping quickly southward off the central California coast.
/Issued 255 AM CST Mon Dec 30 2019/ Gusty west/northwest will persist today on backside of upper low lifting northeast into the Great Lakes region.
354 AM CST Mon Dec 30 2019 Today will be a cool and quiet day with highs in the 40s/50s and light winds thanks to surface ridging. The upper low currently over southern CA will dig southward over Baja during this time frame before phasing with a trough pushing across the central US.
526 AM CST Mon Dec 30 2019 The large and potent upper level cutoff low pressure system continues to spin above the region today. Overnight, light snow could continue along the Coteau des Prairies and Buffalo Ridge in southwest Minnesota as a pocket of vorticity moves around the western periphery of the cutoff low. Area-wide, temperatures will be a bit cooler overnight, with lows in the low to mid teens.
429 AM EST Mon Dec 30 2019 After a warm start, a cold front passage will return temperatures closer to seasonal levels for late December, albeit for a few short days. By mid-morning, the trough axis will have crossed, with dry air wrapping into the region in its wake. Given cold advection that is anticipated throughout the day, expect the high temperature to be this morning, with a non diurnal curve through the remainder of the day.
628 AM EST Mon Dec 30 2019 A cold front will move through the forecast area this morning.
/issued 313 AM CST Mon Dec 30 2019/ Dry and breezy northwest wind today as upper low continues to move into the upper Midwest/Great Lakes area.
A strong mid-upper cyclone is currently centered over southern Minnesota and is forecast to slowly slide east/southeast today and toward the Great Lakes region tonight. Some areas outside of the winter weather advisory may reach wind advisory criteria for a few hours today, but the bulk of the highest wind gusts are forecast to remain across the current advisory area. As the cyclone continues to weaken and move over the Great Lakes region tonight, surface winds will relax and skies will begin to clear from southwest to northeast. A western mid-level trough will amplify as it moves east across the central Plains and extend southward into the southern Plains.
A low pressure system off the southern California coast will dive south to central Baja through early Tuesday. Temperatures will remain below normal through mid week then warm heading into the weekend as strong high pressure builds over the eastern Pacific.
Fog will once again be possible and potentially more dense across the interior tonight into early Tuesday morning right ahead of the approaching cold front. Showers will be possible again today as a slug of moisture rotating westward along the southern periphery of the ridge over the eastern Atlantic pushes over the area. Winds become more southerly to even southwesterly during the day as a cold front approaches the area. The cold front itself will push through the area overnight tonight into early Tuesday morning, with only a very slight chance for showers along it. Behind the cold front, high pressure is forecast to build.
336 AM CST Mon Dec 30 2019 As of 09Z Monday morning a strong mid-latitude cyclone continues to lift northeastward across IA. An extensive stratus shield remains across all of northeast KS, which has yielded slightly warmer temperatures than previously anticipated with values in the low to middle 30s. Decreasing cloud cover will yield a cooler night with lows in the 20s.
Cyclonic flow assocd with this system was ushering cooler and drier airmass into AR on breezy W/NW winds.
514 AM EST Mon Dec 30 2019 A cold front will move through the forecast area this morning.
/issued 1023 AM CST Mon Dec 30 2019/ Sfc ridging remains locked across the Intermountain West this morning, resulting in a strong northwest to southeast pressure gradient in place across the Southern Plains and Lower Miss Valley.
Intense cyclone spinning over the Great Lakes at midday.
A deep low pressure system will drift through the Great Lakes tonight into Tuesday. Vorticity lobe currently extending from Wisconsin into southern Minnesota and northern Iowa is expected to rotate around the Great Lakes upper low, and through northern Indiana later tonight and Tuesday morning. Current Great Lakes upper low is expected to lift off to the northeast early in the short term period.
1022 AM MST Mon Dec 30 2019 The center of the strong low pressure is along the MN/IA border, with the deformation zone across the eastern half of the Dakotas. Highs today will be in the upper 20s to mid 30s, with the warmer temps along the downsloping eastern/southeastern foothills. Northwest flow aloft will continue through Tuesday, with dry weather and slightly warmer temps. The next trough is progged to dig across the western to central CONUS.
It looks like there should be some breaks of sun on Tuesday, although it will stay on the cooler side. However the lowest winds will be east of the Red River Valley, so have gone with the coolest lows there.
This chilly airmass will be short-lived as warmer temperatures return to the region by New Year's Day with highs with highs in the lower to middle 50s in response to southerly winds.
A weak weather system will move out of the area today with high pressure temporarily moving into the area Tuesday.
For tonight, an area of shallow stratu-cu will wrap-around the upper low over the Great Lakes. Chattanooga Airport, TN 35 50 31 52 39 / 0 0 0 0 50 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 35 48 31 49 37 / 0 0 0 0 30 Oak Ridge, TN 35 48 31 49 36 / 0 0 0 0 30 Tri Cities Airport, TN 31 44 31 46 33 / 0 10 10 0 10.
With at least some increased insolation temperatures in extreme western areas should rise a degree or so warmer than extreme northeastern sections of Kansas.
A few degrees warmer on Tuesday with highs in the mid 50s to near 60.
1023 AM CST Mon Dec 30 2019 Sfc ridging remains locked across the Intermountain West this morning, resulting in a strong northwest to southeast pressure gradient in place across the Southern Plains and Lower Miss Valley.
VFR conditions will prevail at all of the terminals through the entire forecast period as a dry and stable high pressure system settles over the region.
1038 AM MST Mon Dec 30 2019 Quiet and cold pattern will be in place for the next 36 to 48 hours as upper level low pressure systems to our southwest and northeast keep us in the calm, col region. Light winds and a little more sun may make it "feel" warmer out there today, but temps will still be running 10 to 15 degrees below normal. The above mentioned upper level low pressure systems will be drifting out of view Tuesday night with northwesterly flow aloft becoming firmly entrenched.
Vorticity lobes will continue to rotate around the low over the Great Lakes bringing periodic chances for light snow primarily northeast of I-74 into Tuesday Morning. As the low pulls out Tuesday, some breaks in the clouds can be expected particularly across the western portions of the forecast area during the afternoon.
An upper level low is forecast to round through Baja California on Tuesday and Tuesday night.
1042 AM EST Mon Dec 30 2019 Weak cold front moving through the FL Panhandle and eastern Gulf will approach central Florida later this afternoon. A band of lower clouds out ahead of an approaching cold front, and developing isolated to scattered showers through this afternoon will produce tempo, mainly MVFR conditions.
In the wake of this system, strong high pressure over the Pacific will build east over southern California, resulting in fair, dry and warmer weather for the remainder of the week. WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO The upper low is centered about 275 miles west of San Diego this morning and moving quickly southward. Some light rain and snow is expected over the high desert as well, with little if any accumulation.
All is quiet across the CWA today as the upper trough shifts eastward and pressure increases at the surface over us. With westerly flow, temperatures are much cooler this morning than we've seen over the last week.
200 PM CST Mon Dec 30 2019 The upper level low is now over southern Wisconsin. The upper level low will begin to move out and the clouds will as well, but slowly, especially over the northeast sections which may not see clearing until later on Tuesday. and another upper level low off of Baja CA.
/issued 439 AM CST Mon Dec 30 2019/ (Today and Tonight) As an upper trough continues to move east, high pressure will build over the region today. Light winds and radiational cooling tonight will again produce lows below freezing, mainly in the mid to upper 20s.
1125 AM EST Mon Dec 30 2019 Seasonal temperature returns later today in the wake of a cold front passage, albeit for a few short days. At the surface, temperature will continue to decrease non-diurnally in the wake of the earlier cold front passage, yet still remain above calculated normals tonight.
122 PM EST Mon Dec 30 2019 Dry and cool high pressure will build across the region through tonight in the wake of the cold front that pushed offshore.
DGS Chattanooga Airport, TN 56 35 50 31 52 / 0 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 56 35 48 31 49 / 0 0 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 54 35 48 31 49 / 0 0 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 57 31 44 31 46 / 10 0 10 10 0.
327 PM EST Mon Dec 30 2019 A cold front will move offshore tonight.
1054 AM CST Mon Dec 30 2019 The large and potent upper level cutoff low pressure system continues to spin above the region today. Overnight, light snow could continue along the Coteau des Prairies and Buffalo Ridge in southwest Minnesota as a pocket of vorticity moves around the western periphery of the cutoff low. Area-wide, temperatures will be a bit cooler overnight, with lows in the low to mid teens.
200 PM CST Mon Dec 30 2019 Bands of snow continue to pivot across the area in association with a mid-level moisture plume/deformation/trowal wrapping around a broad upper low. Still appears the highest snowfall totals will be found across west-central into north-central WI (6 to 9 inches), although some of the high res models have suggested some of the higher amounts into the MS River counties of southeast MN.
229 PM CST Mon Dec 30 2019 Visible satellite shows a deep upper low circulating over the Midwest this afternoon, leaving a massive swath of snow in its wake.
1104 AM EST Mon Dec 30 2019 Dry high pressure will build across the area this afternoon behind a cold front that will push offshore.
1237 PM EST Mon Dec 30 2019 Seasonal temperature returns later today in the wake of a cold front passage, albeit for a few short days. At the surface, temperature will continue to decrease non-diurnally in the wake of the earlier cold front passage, yet still remain above calculated normals tonight.
/Tonight through Monday/ Lobe of vorticity rotating around the parent upper low, which is located over the upper Great Lakes, is moving into northern Iowa this afternoon. A few patches of light freezing rain/drizzle has been occurring along the leading edge of this precipitation band, creating localized icy patches. The area of low pressure will continue to depart on Tuesday and will be replaced by a ridge of high pressure that will be approaching from the west. Temperatures are expected to rise above freezing over the southern half of the state while cooler temperatures linger north. The ridge will pass east across the state Tuesday night allowing warm advection filter into the area.
Another upper level trough will be digging over northwest Mexico during the day Tuesday and we should start to see an increase in high clouds across the region by evening. Seasonally enhanced amplitude in the flow might imply the potential for below normal temperatures to invade the Southern Plains, but the frequency of cold fronts will diminish the intensity of the latitudinal heat transfer with each intrusion.
Surface analysis is showing an expansive cyclone centered over northern Michigan with yesterdays boundary approaching the eastern seaboard then arcing southwest into the eastern Gulf of Mexico.
With cooler and drier air in place, temperatures will fall into the mid to upper 30s tonight with clear skies.
356 PM CST Mon Dec 30 2019 The wrapped up system that brought freezing rain, rain, and snow across the region will slowly start to meander eastward.
Cold weather however has persisted with high temperatures barely reaching the low 20s in some areas. This weather conditions should prevail next couple of days as an upper level ridge continues dominating the local region.
Seasonally enhanced amplitude in the flow might imply the potential for below normal temperatures to invade the Southern Plains, but the frequency of cold fronts will diminish the intensity of the latitudinal heat transfer with each intrusion.
This is occurring where forecast soundings are saturated between 3000-5000FT with some weak ascent associated with a mid level trough dropping through the area.
542 PM CST Mon Dec 30 2019 Bands of snow continue to pivot across the area in association with a mid-level moisture plume/deformation/trowal wrapping around a broad upper low. Still appears the highest snowfall totals will be found across west-central into north-central WI (6 to 9 inches), although some of the high res models have suggested some of the higher amounts into the MS River counties of southeast MN.
313 PM CST Mon Dec 30 2019 With high pressure over the region tonight, expect clear skies to continue with temperatures dropping down into the mid-30s. With high pressure in place, the atmosphere will decouple somewhat overnight, allowing winds to weaken to 5 to 10 mph. Zonal flow aloft coupled with a high pressure system near the surface will continue to mean westerly winds. A cooler start on Tuesday will mean temperatures only get up into the upper 40s to near 50 on Tuesday.
414 PM MST Mon Dec 30 2019 Current surface analysis shows strong low pressure moving quickly east across the Great Lakes region. Upper level analysis shows low over Lake Michigan, with positively tilted ridge from the west coast into the northern Rockies. New Years Day will be relatively mild ahead of the next cold front and clipper system, with highs mostly in the mid 30s to upper 40s.
Tomorrow/New Year's Eve day will be a calmer way to end 2019 in a dry northwest flow regime with light winds, good insolation and temps near seasonal normals in the low/mid 30s over snowpack areas. and milder temps in the low 40s in north central Kansas with minimal or no snow cover.
Cold front moving across ne Fl this evening should be exiting the area around midnight. Clouds will clear overnight with cooler temperatures.
Soundings showing the low-levels moistening overnight at TYS and TRI as wrap around moisture moves in from the northwest overnight. Chattanooga Airport, TN 36 51 31 52 39 / 0 0 0 0 20 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 37 47 31 49 35 / 0 0 0 0 10 Oak Ridge, TN 35 47 31 49 35 / 10 0 0 0 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 34 43 31 46 31 / 10 0 10 10 10.
445 PM CST Mon Dec 30 2019 Tonight and Tomorrow: With the upper trough shifting eastward over the Great Lakes, the upper level flow over our CWA is becoming more zonal-oriented. High pressure will continue to ease into our area over the next day or so, which in turn will keep our weather quiet and seasonal. Going into tonight, temperatures will drop into the 30s with some isolated spots hitting freezing along and just east of I-55.