Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
306 PM CDT FRI AUG 12 2016 Surface front has made its way across much of the forecast area this afternoon, while the broader upper trof moves eastward across the state. Incoming dewpoints in the 60s bring some relief from the high humidities of recent days on Saturday. Overnight lows fall into the 60s with daytime highs in the low to middle 80s. Weak upper trough will linger across the region this weekend however aside from some mid cloud don't expect any precip given the low level frontal position well southeast of the area.
345 PM CDT FRI AUG 12 2016 The upper level trough of low pressure confined to the eastern portion of Louisiana and western Mississippi over the last couple of days has retrograded west to near the Baton Rouge area this afternoon. we have seen flooding rains ramp up across south central and the extreme northeast half of central Louisiana as vorticity lobes pinwheel around the upper low. and quickly dropped off to the low to mid 70s in the rain cooled air. The Flash Flood Watch will continue tonight through Saturday evening for our Louisiana County Warning Area as the upper low slowly meanders west.
A cold front to our northwest remains poised to move into the our forecast area. This is very rare to observe this high number over the area. An overall zonal/troughiness lingers, however, and this will keep more or less unsettled daily (esp daytime) chances lingering for the foreseeable future.
230 PM CDT FRI AUG 12 2016 Cold front pushed south of the forecast area this morning and now extends from far northeast MO to southeast OK. Surface cold front continues to move SE into NE OK at this time.
Several areas of quasi-linear low-lvl streamline convergence are resulting in narrow lines of shower activity along the NE flank of the low across north/east MS and central AL. As the low shifts slowly northward and instability increases a little today, some of these showers will progress into our area. Will keep lower MVFR ceilings at MSL through the end of the TAF forecast period, but will slowly increase ceilings to the low end VFR range at HSV by around 16z toward the end of the forecast period.
The convection will be most numerous over the higher mountains and more numerous in the north than in the south.
If clouds are thicker and rain more prevalent the highs many locations could be too warm by 2 to 5 plus degrees. Mins mostly in the mid to upper 60s with lower readings in the lower 60s possibly in nw 1/3 for later shifts. consistent pattern with highs in the lower 80s most locations through the period. Mins mostly in the lower to middle 60s with risk of being too mild for later shifts to reassess. Cold front will move across the taf sites this afternoon and early evening with scattered showers/isold thunderstorms ahead of the front.
309 PM CDT FRI AUG 12 2016 The cold front has pushed well south of the Panhandles today while a west to northwest upper flow prevails across the forecast area through the weekend.
It will be much cooler with temperatures mainly in the 70s. Low pressure will cross the region midweek. Glancing blow from a passing s/wv trof initiated thunderstorms as expected today. Outflow from these storms enhanced a backdoor cold front. The forecast is for the boundary to lift back N as a warm front Sat.
301 PM PDT FRI AUG 12 2016 A high pressure system will continue and bring increasing temperatures and dry weather this weekend.
A ridge of high pressure will build over the region through the weekend.
317 PM MDT FRI AUG 12 2016 The drier and cooler airmass over the northeast plains has remained stable up to this point. Temperatures should be about 5 degrees warmer, helping the airmass to become a little less stable than it is today.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue to push across Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas this afternoon as a cold front moves southward through the region. the cold front is expected to slowly progress across Northeast Oklahoma into Northwest Arkansas and through Southeast Oklahoma overnight tonight. Increasing instability combined with the warmer temps ahead of the front could allow for a limited severe potential into the evening hours. Behind the cold front.
An upper level ridge is over Western Washington this afternoon, producing warm and sunny weather. The ridge will exit across eastern Washington on Saturday morning.
Bands of showers, with isolated thunderstorms, were rotating around this low, though much of this activity has remained to the south of the forecast area. The low level moisture will remain high overnight and a low stratus deck is expected to develop once again, limiting the cooling overnight. Convection may be limited, however, as the ridge off of the Atlantic coast builds to the west and reaches our eastern counties.
Idaho is currently under a stable northwesterly flow aloft with upper ridging over the Pacific coastline. Otherwise, weather will be quite today and tomorrow while under the upper ridge.
1246 PM CDT FRI AUG 12 2016 The ArkLaTex remains situated between a tropical low to the southeast and a cold front to the northwest.
Areas of low pressure will track along the front and will bring rain to the area at times, and some of the rain will likely fall heavily at times. The first of two low pressure disturbances has exited the area and ridging associated with a high over Hudson's Bay will nose into the area overnight with cooler and drier air. The next wave of low pressure will advect eastward from the western Great Lakes overnight and cause rain to develop in western mountains of the forecast area in the morning and spread across the entire area during the afternoon.
Models continue to show an increase in precip this weekend as moisture increases with an approaching mid/upper level low that is currently over LA.
423 PM CDT FRI AUG 12 2016 A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RETROGRADE SLOWLY WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. DAYTIME HIGHS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S WEST TO MID 80S EAST DUE TO CLOUDS AND RAIN.
1232 PM CDT FRI AUG 12 2016 The upper trough is enhancing some weak isentropic lift along the I-29 corridor and generating some showers. High pressure and relatively drier air will spread across the region.
Saturday will be drier and warmer with an upper ridge building in. Any convective activity should be confined to the higher terrain as that is where models place weak cape.
Areas of low pressure will track along the front and will bring rain to the area at times, and some of the rain will likely fall heavily at times.
A cold front will drop southeast across central Indiana Saturday and Saturday night before it stalls near the Ohio River. Main focus tonight will be on pops as a cold front gets closer and interacts with deepening moisture and sufficient instability. Models in good agreement that the aforementioned cold front will move to northwestern parts of the forecast area near or slightly after 12z Saturday.
338 PM CDT FRI AUG 12 2016 Weak low pressure seen on satellite in northern IA producing scattered showers this afternoon across the cwa. Tonight: Scattered showers/isolated thunderstorms will diminish this evening then end overnight as the cold front pushes across the area. Highs will be in the lower to mid 80s, which is normal for mid August.
1242 PM CDT FRI AUG 12 2016 18Z TAFS Persistent stratiform rain with embedded thunderstorms rotating around an area of low pressure centered over Southeastern Louisiana will continue to impact LFT and ARA through the afternoon and into the overnight hours. Highest amounts are still forecasted over the lower Acadiana region and central Louisiana.
The latest water vapor imagery loop details a closed upper low circulating over south central Manitoba.
The surface cold front continues to be laid out just to our south and east. Lows tonight ranging from the lower 60s north to the upper 60s southeast.
Cool and drier air will return to southwest Kansas overnight and Saturday as an area of high pressure at the surface builds into the Central Plains. On Saturday little if any change in temperatures were forecast in the 850mb level as the easterly wind in the lower levels continues. Based on these conditions it appears the highs Saturday afternoon will be very similar to those highs earlier today.
No significant changes to the forecast this morning as convection is beginning to fire across the higher terrain. Drier and warmer weather is expected over the next several days as high pressure builds into the Pacific states and Arizona.
Showers today have been mostly confined south of the Highways 84/98 corridors and across northeast Louisiana. Some scattered activity is seen across eastern Mississippi as it wraps around the low pressure system. Going forward into the rest of the evening and into tonight, it looks like as the low pressure moves west, the bulk of the precipitation should also be across the western part of the area. Also, in light of the lower forecast QPF amounts further north, we continued the trend of trending down the HWO/graphics.
Excessive heat conditions will impact the lower to middle Susquehanna Valley through the upcoming weekend. Apparent temperatures will soar above 100F across much of the lower to middle Susq River Valley. Broad upper troughing will continue to move eastward across the Upper Great Lakes while losing amplitude with time to the more confluent flow aloft. A very moist airmass will remain in place ahead of the cold front with PW values of 2+ inches or near record values based on SPC sounding climatology.
A ridge of high pressure will extend tonight over central Florida from a high pressure positioned in the Atlantic.
Limited moisture is allowing for some convection to occur this afternoon across the higher terrain.
206 PM CDT FRI AUG 12 2016 The recently advertised cold front was moving thru the PB/SE NM ahead of schedule and water vapor imagery shows a plume of rich moisture streaming overhead. High temps will cool to 85-90 Sat/Sun with lows mostly in the 65-70, and thereafter highs will climb back to the low to mid 90s.
which has allowed temps to rise warmer than earlier expected. A cold front will approach from the NW this evening and overnight. an area of low pressure will be gradually lifting towards AR from the SE. Meanwhile, a cold front will push into the region from the Plains. The front will stall as it encounters a ridge of high pressure over the southeast United States.
231 PM CDT FRI AUG 12 2016 An upper trough over the region will transition to northwest flow on Saturday as the trough shifts east.
226 PM CDT FRI AUG 12 2016 Upper level trof passing through the forecast area this afternoon and evening. As trof passes to the east, skies should be clear overnight and winds becoming fairly light.
Better chance for thunderstorms on Saturday as an upper level trough moves across the high plains. Kept POP between 20 to 35 percent mainly along and east of the Laramie Range and expect showers/tstorms to form in the mountains and ridges early-mid afternoon. Temperatures may be a few degrees warmer compared to today.
Convective inhibition is eroding with showers developing over the higher terrain of Mohave County.
It will be muggy overnight with lows in the lower to middle 70s.
145 PM EDT FRI AUG 12 2016 High pressure remains off east coast.
Thunderstorm chances should be decreasing Saturday into Saturday evening as a weak cold front moves across and out of the area.
Residual upper ridge will nonetheless move into the Treasure state Saturday providing more warmth and drier than today.
1129 AM MDT FRI AUG 12 2016 Upper level analysis has closed low over south central Canada with broad shallow trof across the northern CONUS. At the surface, weak low pressure has moved into Minnesota with high pressure building into the Northern Rockies. High temperatures will climb into the lower 80s across the area.
An upper level ridge holds over the area for coastal clouds tonight and very warm inland temperatures on Saturday.
By early afternoon, a weak cold front extended from near Snyder into the Davis Mountains with winds generally north to northeast 10 to 15 knots north of the front but remaining light southerly or variable south of the front. A cold front will arrive after 18Z shifting winds from the northeast and increasing storms across the area. /issued 318 AM CDT FRI AUG 12 2016/ Upper trough passing over the Rockies has weakened the persistent ridge extending across the southern half of the country. This trough will bring cooler wx and a good chance of rain for the area. and cooler outflows.
305 PM CDT FRI AUG 12 2016 Cold front has pushed into southeast OK and northwest AR with scattered thunderstorms along and ahead of it. A cold front will stall across the area and interact with the upper level low pressure system now over LA.
A ridge of high pressure quickly builds over the region on Saturday causing a warming and drying trend.
However, showers and storms will be on the increase tonight and Saturday morning as a cold front moves into the area.
344 PM CDT FRI AUG 12 2016 Several weak disturbances rippling around the base of northern plains/Canadian short wave trough, aiding in development of isolated showers eastern South Dakota/northwest Iowa.
For today, the upper trough will continue to move east across the forecast area while the upper jet exits to the east as well. Convection will likely be tied to terrain features and vicinity, especially along the Laramie Range and Cheyenne Ridge where sfc convergence and upslope flow favor convective potential. Patchy fog remains a possibility in the low valleys late tonight, but should remain quite localized due to meager BL moisture progs. Shear continues to be on the lower end, but can certainly see a few stronger storms, albeit quite disorganized, with higher instability in place.
235 PM CDT FRI AUG 12 2016 The latest water vapor imagery loop details a closed upper low circulating over south central Manitoba.
No Meaningful Rainfall Expected the Next 7 Days but No Aloft: A broad longwave trof was over the cntrl USA with a ridge along the W Coast. The base of the trof axis will move thru the fcst area tonight establishing NW flow for tomorrow. This high will slide into MT/WY tonight and emerge over the cntrl Plains tomorrow.
This would normally be a red flag for fog as the low departs but the question will be whether low level drying on northwesterly winds will be sufficient to mix and dry out the boundary layer.
324 PM CDT FRI AUG 12 2016 (Tonight and Saturday) Cold front moving into the I-20 corridor as of late this afternoon, with convection developing across much of the area. Latest GFS and ECMWF show the same general trend, but don't carry the front quite as far south and keep the highest rain chances across the area south of a San Angelo to Brady line. Significantly more cloud cover, and with a cooler air mass in place, temperatures will be cooler as well. 07 (Saturday night through Friday) Rain chances will continue over all of West Central Texas through this weekend with the best chances over the southern half of the area nearest the cold frontal boundary and the better moisture. Morning lows will be in the upper 60s to the lower 70s through the period, near seasonal norms.
511 PM CDT FRI AUG 12 2016 Widely scattered showers and a few isolated thunderstorms are expected along and behind a slow-moving cold front through this evening, and will be most intense across central MO where a few peeks of afternoon sunshine allowed a bit more instability to build. While the surface front has already pushed through the CWA, elevated frontogenesis and upper-level lift associated with a positively tilted upper trough has supported continued weak convective initiation, mainly along and ahead of a vague secondary boundary that is evident via a radar fine-line and a slight veer and increase to the surface winds. As the boundary continues to shift to the south and cooler, more stable air eventually arrives this evening, storms will push out of the region and leave the forecast area dry for tonight and the remainder of the weekend.
With cooler air and an upper level trough across the area, we could see some diurnally driven showers and perhaps a thunderstorm.
Dewpoints range in the low-mid 70s, with some localized peaks near coastal areas. Deep layer ridging centered over the Atlantic will extend westward. An inverted trough aloft approaches latter in the week. Although they may be occasionally numerous especially as the upper trough moves through. Temperatures run near to just above normal for the lows while highs stay near normal. High pressure will continue to build in across the Gulf of Mexico, with light southeast winds becoming variable during each day during the late morning and afternoon hours, and increasing with modest easterly surges each evening and overnight.
128 PM PDT FRI AUG 12 2016 Isolated thunderstorms are possible this afternoon over the mountains, otherwise dry and warmer through the weekend with a decreasing marine layer as high pressure builds aloft.
325 PM CDT FRI AUG 12 2016 Widely scattered showers and a few isolated thunderstorms are expected along and behind a slow-moving cold front through this evening, and will be most intense across central MO where a few peeks of afternoon sunshine allowed a bit more instability to build. While the surface front has already pushed through the CWA, elevated frontogenesis and upper-level lift associated with a positively tilted upper trough has supported continued weak convective initiation, mainly along and ahead of a vague secondary boundary that is evident via a radar fine-line and a slight veer and increase to the surface winds. As the boundary continues to shift to the south and cooler, more stable air eventually arrives this evening, storms will push out of the region and leave the forecast area dry for tonight and the remainder of the weekend.
234 PM CDT FRI AUG 12 2016 A slow moving cold front was making its way through the Ozarks this afternoon.
240 PM EDT Fri Aug 12 2016 High pressure remains over the western Atlantic through the weekend.
Mid/upper level ridging will gradually shift east tonight allowing for a southwest flow aloft to take control through Sunday. For tonight into Sunday afternoon, moisture advection increases through the column as precipitable water values associated with the four corners upper low begins to advect into ND. The highest instability remains focused in the James River Valley.
/issued 407 AM CDT Sat Nov 5 2016/ (Today and Tonight) For today, main lift will remain west of the area as the upper level trough axis approaches. As the upper level trough axis approaches tonight, lift will increase across the area. The GFS indicate a positive tilt trough from the Southern Plains to a low over Northern Mexico.
Latest satellite image/loop does show area of clouds associated with upper low over the desert SW moving slowly north and east. Latest upper air analysis shows the closed low near the Four Corners Area. As the low moves north it is slowly merging back into the flow around the ridge over the western CONUS.
455 PM EDT Sat Nov 5 2016 High pressure brings a stretch of dry and cool weather through the early workweek. High pressure remains in control through near term periods. Another ideal radiational cooling night is on tap, and dense river valley fog with once again form with freezing fog an issue in the mountain river valleys. High pressure remains in control through the short term.
Upper low over the 4 corners region will continue to weaken and lift out to the east northeast tonight. High res models keep majority of the activity along the CO/NM border through this evening, with showers weakening/dissipating as they lift northeastward towards the highway 50 corridor. However showers may hold together better towards Sunday morning as upper trof axis swings through. Temperatures tomorrow should be a little warmer out west given clearing conditions. Across the plains, temperatures will end up similar to a tad cooler across the far eastern areas versus those of today.
Some near-term concern with fog early this morning, mainly east of I-65 where crossover temps were the highest, and visibilities are already starting to drop.
334 PM EDT Sat Nov 5 2016 An upper trough will move through the north country overnight and early Sunday, with a slight chance of rain or snow showers.
The upper ridge remains in place across much of the ern half of the country on Sunday. Thus another dry day over the cwa with highs a little warmer than today, mainly in the mid 70s.
A large upper ridge will dominate much of North America during the period, with the main westerlies generally well to the north across Canada. Dry air and a lack of clouds and winds with the ridge will allow overnight lows to drop closer to normal, especially give the long nights at this time of year. Opportunities for precipitation will be very limited given the position of the forecast area near the longwave ridge position.
1203 PM MDT Sat Nov 5 2016 18Z TAF CYCLE An upper level low stalled over the Four Corners will keep widespread MVFR and IFR conditions in rain and mist/fog in the forecast through today, and in the east through tonight. The system will eject eastward as a trough tonight, with the base of the trough crossing western and central areas before sunrise. A few storms still expected between the ContDvd and RGV later today as the upper low shifts east and the atmosphere becomes more unstable. A slow moving upper low near the Four Corners will continue to bring showers and thunderstorms to much of the area today.
Quiet and pleasant weather is expected to continue through the period as high pressure remains in control at the surface and mid- levels across the tri-state region. This will help keep overnight lows slightly warmer than indicated by the latest numerical guidance, generally in the upper 40s to lower 50s.
Daytime CU field thicker today than previous days, indicating more moisture available in the lower levels. /issued 422 AM CDT Sat Nov 5 2016/ SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday): Closed 500 mb low pressure over the Four Corners area will gradually open up into a trough while shifting east into the Central Plains during the forecast period. Above normal temperatures are expected to persist during the daytime and overnight hours with no significant passages of cold fronts likely.
Otherwise, widespread VFR conditions are expected as high pressure dominates through the period.
The cold front and associated upper troughing/vorticity have moved into the southern peninsula. Strong high pressure resides across the eastern CONUS with center over the Ohio Valley. High pressure still in control of our weather with near breezy/breezy NE winds once again as the pgrad remains fairly tight. High pressure will persist to our north and provide a northeast-east wind flow, with some weakening expected Tue. Strong high pressure continues to build into the region behind latest cold front.
A ridge of high pressure will build over the eastern U. The ridging aloft begins weakening as extended models deepen a low over the desert SW.
/Issued 412 AM CDT Sat Nov 5 2016/ Latest upper level analysis has cutoff upper low slowly moving north into the Four Corners region with a broad upper ridge over a large portion of the CONUS. A few showers are possible this morning in the far western zones where better upper level diffluence is expected closer to upper low. As upper low approaches and better LSA and height falls occur later this evening and especially overnight into early Sunday morning.
212 PM CDT Sat Nov 5 2016 Water vapor imagery shows an upper low spinning over the four corners region with surface lee troughing continuing to strengthen over western KS/eastern CO. With large scale ridging remaining over the Rockies/Plains, confidence is high that near or slightly above normal temps will remain for the Wed through Sat time frame.
This will leave temperatures a couple degrees cooler in that region. For Sunday we expect at least some high clouds lifting into the western cwa during the day as the trough approaches.
WV imagery shows long plume of moisture trailing around the southern end of the low and extending well into the central Pacific.