Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1138 AM MDT Tue Apr 14 2020 Temperatures have rebounded back to above freezing across east- central Utah and west-central Colorado. The anomalous ridging along each coast of NOAM is not going to relax during the short term period. Great Lakes will be lifting into the high latitudes of E. We will be staying below normal however with a large trough remaining anchored over the continent outside of Alaska. There is another wave topping the amplified EPac ridge that will be dropping into the mid latitudes tomorrow and bring another decent precipitation event to portions of our CWA. Water vapor imagery suggests a subtropical moisture source wrapping into the ridge this morning. The arrival of the next cold trough to the N. Temperatures remain below normal and another cold night is expected over the lower Gunny and Colorado River Valleys.
Temps also expected to stay above freezing so no freeze warnings expected either.
A high pressure system will move through the area tomorrow helping lead to much calmer winds. Temperatures will be slightly warmer with more of the area seeing temperatures at or above 50 degrees.
330 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2020 High amplitude troughing will continue to govern conditions through the late week period. The brief uptick in large scale ascent owing to weak dcva will maintain a low end potential for brief snow showers through early tonight - perhaps capitalizing on a steep lapse rate environment, marginally sufficient moisture depth and the passage of an attendant cold front. Resident thermal profile virtually a carbon copy of today, lack of greater insolation potential meaning highs again arrive mainly in the lower 40s.
In light of Tuesday mornings cold low temperatures, we accept some of the lower guidance temperatures for tonight. Cool high pressure will maintain VFR conditions across the region.
949 AM PDT Tue Apr 14 2020 A pattern of northerly flow will bring warmer, drier, and windier weather today. The dry and warm pattern will continue into Wednesday as a ridge over the eastern Pacific will continue to briefly make an appearance across the state.
153 PM MDT Tue Apr 14 2020 Water vapor shows large upper trof covering the lower 48, with distinct short wave over the Dakotas producing snow showers across northeast WY into western SD. Temps should be a bit warmer on Wednesday but still well below average.
The center of the high will settle over the region tomorrow, resulting in light winds and mostly clear skies throughout the day. Temperatures will remain well below average, only maxing out in the low to mid 60s throughout the region.
222 PM MDT Tue Apr 14 2020 Satellite imagery and 500mb RAP analysis showed weak northwesterly flow over the High Plains today, with a trough over the Upper Midwest. Northwest flow continues aloft tonight as temperatures fall into the low to mid 20s.
Weak mid level trough axis to traverse the mid state today.
125 PM MDT Tue Apr 14 2020 Satellite imagery and 500mb RAP analysis showed weak northwesterly flow over the High Plains today, with a trough over the Upper Midwest. Northwest flow continues aloft tonight as temperatures fall into the low to mid 20s.
244 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2020 A weak front south of the area will begin moving northward as a warm front tonight as a weak upper trough approaches, providing the possibility of isolated showers. Expect fair and cooler conditions Wednesday afternoon.
Longwave upper level troughing still dominates the CONUS with an omega blocking ridge over the northeast Pacific that models indicate will be partially replaced by an offshore low by tomorrow. High pressure will drift further to the south, likely centering just north of our CWA border by 12Z Wednesday. Under clear skies, temperatures should be a few degrees warmer tomorrow than today, but still remaining ~10 degrees below average.
143 PM PDT Tue Apr 14 2020 A pattern of northerly flow will continue to bring warm and dry weather through Wednesday as a ridge over the eastern Pacific continues to briefly make an appearance across the state.
401 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2020 Freezing temperatures are expected tonight in the circulation around high pressure centered to the southwest.
Much of the area is expected to again drop to near or below freezing overnight and due to the time of year will issue another freeze warning for the entire area.
The low level cloud deck in place this morning has slowly been lifting and clearing out throughout the day as drier air continues to move into the region. Another surge of high pressure will push into the region late tonight/early tomorrow morning which will lead to another cool night across South Texas with lows in the upper 40s across the Victoria Crossroads and the upper 50s along the coast. This will slowly begin to modify the drier airmass with a slightly warmer night in store Wednesday night.
While below-freezing temperatures are likely, an anomalously deep freeze for this point in the season does not appear to be in the cards downwind of Lake Michigan. Water temperatures in the low 40s at the Port Sheldon and South Haven buoys suggest continued mixing of the boundary layer overnight at least near the lake, with lake-effect clouds possibly maintained despite a dry air mass. -- Gradually warming this week but still cool Ensembles are in good agreement of cold, freezing temperatures again Wednesday night with an isolated snow flurry.
Previous discussion: High pressure will bring mainly dry weather to NE Montana this morning. Temperatures will be warmer today as the coldest air moves to the east. The high will move to the east this afternoon and the next storm system will move into Montana tonight. The precipitation will become widespread this evening across the SW part of the forecast area and change to snow as temperatures fall below freezing. At this point, the highest forecast snow total is around 2 inches for tonight and Wednesday which is not enough for a Winter Weather Advisory at this point.
High temps today will be around 10 degrees warmer than yesterday.
1241 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2020 The main concerns in the short term will be the continued chances for freezing temperatures as well as the chances for frozen precipitation. Wednesday night a warm front will begin to lift across the CWA.
These cleared skies along with light winds will lead to another night of temps at or below freezing. Tomorrow will be warmer by 20 degrees or more as the sun will be allowed to shine through.
With light winds and partly cloudy skies, temperatures will fall to just above freezing across much of the region. Areas of frost are expected with temperatures with dew points in the lower 30s and moist soils. Elsewhere, a few low lying areas and valley areas may briefly fall below freezing, but a widespread freeze is not expected. Warmer otherwise on Wednesday with sunny skies and the return of southeast to south winds of 5 to 10 mph.
327 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2020 A broad upper level trough will continue to provide the North Country with mainly dry conditions and below normal temperatures through the remainder of the week.
954 AM MDT Tue Apr 14 2020 Temperatures have rebounded back to above freezing across east- central Utah and west-central Colorado. The anomalous ridging along each coast of NOAM is not going to relax during the short term period. Great Lakes will be lifting into the high latitudes of E. We will be staying below normal however with a large trough remaining anchored over the continent outside of Alaska. There is another wave topping the amplified EPac ridge that will be dropping into the mid latitudes tomorrow and bring another decent precipitation event to portions of our CWA. Water vapor imagery suggests a subtropical moisture source wrapping into the ridge this morning. The arrival of the next cold trough to the N. Temperatures remain below normal and another cold night is expected over the lower Gunny and Colorado River Valleys.
SE GA could see partial clearing Wednesday afternoon, as high pressure builds from the north. Highs Wednesday will range from around 70 across inland SE GA, to the lower 80s south of line from Ocala to Palm Coast.
309 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2020 The band of light precipitation that moved across central Kentucky this afternoon will push quickly to the east early this evening, followed by clearing skies overnight under high pressure ridging from Texas to Pennsylvania. Tomorrow clouds will increase, especially over southern Indiana and north central Kentucky, as a weak cold front approaches from the northwest. Wednesday night, a weak cold front drops south through central Kentucky from the Ohio River. Weak northerly winds behind the front will help push temperatures to near and even below freezing under partly clear skies and a calm wind. This is expected to cause freezing issues for plants in southern Indiana and the Bluegrass region of Kentucky.
These areas did remain warmer this morning due to persistent cloud cover overnight, but lessened sunlight during the day may cause temperatures to be a degree or two cooler than previously thought. DGS Chattanooga Airport, TN 62 39 60 38 68 / 10 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 59 36 58 37 64 / 10 10 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 60 35 59 37 65 / 20 20 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 56 35 54 34 60 / 30 50 0 0 0.
Temperatures will climb 5 to 10 degrees warmer than Tuesday, but we'll still struggle to climb too far with the snow cover lingering.
The next storm system will spread precipitation and cooler temperatures into the area midweek. The western CONUS remains under a northerly flow aloft between the deep, cold upper trough over eastern North America and the high amplitude ridge locked in across the eastern Pacific. The flow aloft will exhibit modest backing/warming today ahead of the next trough dropping south from the Yukon.
1229 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2020 Northwest flow aloft will continue across our region today between an upper trough along the east coast and a ridge along the west coast.
307 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2020 Low pressure will track across the Carolinas as an upper level disturbance crosses the region tonight into Wednesday.
Lowered PoP across the southeast ridges as satellite and radar imagery shows the precipitation axis moving east, which is further confirmed by mesoanalysis showing upper jet farther east as well. Overnight low temperature will drop below freezing areawide due to the aforementioned cloud clearing plus cold upper troughing. A Freeze Warning was issued for portions of northern WV into southeast OH where the freezing temperature will most likely impact on growing vegetation. Model trends show potential for a quick half to 1 inch of snow, mainly along the I-80 corridor and eastern ridges, given favorable location of upper jet, strengthening mid-level frontogenesis with lift along a weak sfc boundary.
The front which was stalled near the state line this morning lifted northward as a warm front earlier this afternoon and has essentially merged or been overtaken by another quasi-stationary front to its north stretching across central GA into the FL Panhandle approaching weak cold front.
Slightly cooler than expected sfc temperature plus localized wet bulbing due to precipitation has increased the areal coverage of the rain/snow mix, validated via sfc obs and spotter reports. Favorable jet dynamics plus modest orographic lift may generate a couple inches of snow in the highest elevations, but lack of deep snow growth, warm grounds, and precipitation quickly shifting east with the jet should prevent advisory level accumulations. Some cloud clearing plus cold upper troughing will drop overnight lows will drop below freezing areawide. A Freeze Warning was issued for portions of northern WV into southeast OH where freezing temperature most likely will impact growing vegetation. Model trends show potential for a quick half to 1 inch of snow, mainly along the I-80 corridor and eastern ridges, given favorable location of upper jet, strengthening mid-level frontogenesis with lift along a weak sfc boundary.
725 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2020 A weak front south of the area will begin moving northward as a warm front tonight as a weak upper trough approaches, providing the possibility of isolated showers. Expect fair and cooler conditions Wednesday afternoon.
While most of the Huntsville region is now mostly clear, a still-tight pressure gradient between the high building over the central/southern Plains and stationary front across the FL Panhandle/SE GA has kept winds from decoupling for all but a few sites around the area. Still, current trends support lows falling into the low/mid 30s. Temperatures on Wednesday night will be a few degrees warmer (mid to upper 30s).
The band of light precipitation that moved across central Kentucky this afternoon will push quickly to the east early this evening, followed by clearing skies overnight under high pressure ridging from Texas to Pennsylvania. Tomorrow clouds will increase, especially over southern Indiana and north central Kentucky, as a weak cold front approaches from the northwest. Wednesday night, a weak cold front drops south through central Kentucky from the Ohio River. Weak northerly winds behind the front will help push temperatures to near and even below freezing under partly clear skies and a calm wind. This is expected to cause freezing issues for plants in southern Indiana and the Bluegrass region of Kentucky.
1008 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2020 Mean layer ridging is farther south this evening compared to 24 hours ago, now a flattened form of itself over the Caribbean. The release of the ridge deeper into the tropics has decreased static stability above 800 mb across the Keys. Long range radar samples and RGB night- time satellite imagery show an area of spreading altocumulus over the distant Straights south of the Lower Keys, likely a shallow layer of effluent from northward moving Cuban outflows.
A weak mid level trough has brought a few rain showers and a few snow flurries to the northwestern third of the mid state this afternoon. Furthermore, sfc ridging expected to extend our way from the west by 12z.
A cool, dry air mass remains in place across the region late this afternoon, with breezy NNE winds helping to reinforce this underneath the influence of high pressure to the north of the area. Thus, expect temperatures to drop into the low to mid 30s across most of the Tennessee Valley region. Locations across North Alabama should stay at or above freezing, and just have a Frost Advisory there between 06-13z. Temperatures on Wednesday night will be a few degrees warmer (mid to upper 30s).
In light of Tuesday morning's cold low temperatures, we accept some of the lower guidance temperatures for tonight.
522 PM MDT Tue Apr 14 2020 Water vapor shows large upper trof covering the lower 48, with distinct short wave over the Dakotas producing snow showers across northeast WY into western SD. Temps should be a bit warmer on Wednesday but still well below average.
Moisture associated with an approaching cold front is expected to produce shower activity over the central Idaho mountains this evening, with activity spreading south through the overnight and Wednesday morning hours.
Accumulating snow may slow travel over mountain passes, and within the higher elevation valleys of Southwest Montana. Short term models indicate the cold front crossing into Montana around midnight tonight. Bridges, as always, are the exception.
Increasing low level southwest flow may transport some stratus back into areas mainly north of Okeechobee County and the Treasure Coast late tonight, with temperatures remaining rather muggy, only falling into the low to mid 70s. VFR conditions should then return by 14-15Z, before tempo IFR/MVFR conditions return from increasing showers and isolated storms from around KMCO northward into mid to late afternoon with approaching cold front.
/issued 152 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2020/ A broad upper trough extended from a low in NE Canada down across the Great Lakes southwestward to CA.
719 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2020 A broad upper level trough will continue to provide the North Country with mainly dry conditions and below normal temperatures through the remainder of the week.
542 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2020 A weak front south of the area will begin moving northward as a warm front tonight as a weak upper trough approaches, providing the possibility of isolated showers. Expect fair and cooler conditions Wednesday afternoon.
802 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2020 High pressure will gradually build in from the northwest through late week. This activity will impact the area overnight as weak low pressure inland moves off to the northeast and an associated cold front moves southeast into the forecast area and offshore toward daybreak. Lows should range from the mid 50s inland to the lower-mid 60s at the immediate coast, warmest south along the GA coast. Moderate confidence through the period that a stalled front offshore Wednesday will turn into a cold front and push to the southeast farther away from the area as high pressure builds from the northwest.
15/00Z Forecast VFR conditions are expected through the period, as cold high pressure settles in.
/Issued 241 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2020/ Large scale upper trough stretches across the U. Window for freezing temperatures will be limited across western zones as southerly winds return late tonight, however its warranted given the atypically cool airmass in place during the growing season.
Clear and warm conditions are expected Wednesday, with highs near 70 at the coast and in the lower to mid 80s across the valleys.
The clearing skies and light winds will allow temps to drop down to around freezing, maybe below freezing in the valleys. /Issued 241 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2020/ Large scale upper trough stretches across the U. Window for freezing temperatures will be limited across western zones as southerly winds return late tonight, however its warranted given the atypically cool airmass in place during the growing season.
Temperatures are still mainly on track from this afternoon's forecast so am still expecting areas within the freeze warning to be the only counties that see widespread sub-freezing temperatures, so no plans to increase the area of the warning for now. ABM Chattanooga Airport, TN 38 60 39 68 44 / 10 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 35 58 38 64 43 / 10 0 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 35 59 37 65 42 / 10 0 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 33 55 34 60 38 / 30 0 0 0 0 TN.
Upper ridge still centered offshore this evening with a northwesterly jet and short wave moving across southern BC into the Pacific northwest.
314 PM MDT Tue Apr 14 2020 Main forecast concerns/challenges are with scattered snow showers returning across the central mountains Wednesday, and near critical fire weather conditions over the lower elevations. Will likely see additional clearing over the plains through the afternoon as drier air mixes down to the surface, while northwest flow will continue to assist with scattered cloud development over the higher terrain into adjacent locations. Elsewhere, dry with warmer conditions in the 50s and 60s across the lower elevations. Similar to the previous forecast, continue to monitor near critical fire weather conditions over the lower elevations Wednesday afternoon.
528 PM MDT Tue Apr 14 2020 Satellite imagery and 500mb RAP analysis showed weak northwesterly flow over the High Plains today, with a trough over the Upper Midwest. Northwest flow continues aloft tonight as temperatures fall into the low to mid 20s.
1009 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2020 Freezing temperatures are expected tonight in the circulation around high pressure.
If these clouds continue to increase through the night, it will likely ruin the low temperature forecast of lower to mid teens across western North Dakota. In light of Tuesday morning's cold low temperatures, we accept some of the lower guidance temperatures for tonight.
In most areas that do get snow accumulations tonight (primarily Petroleum County), it should generally be melted by tomorrow afternoon as temperatures warm above freezing once again.
Descent ascent and moisture supply with a reinforcing cold front is sufficient to maintain likely PoPs of rain and snow showers with no impact given a warm boundary layer. Otherwise, cloud reduction and cold advection will likely result in sub-freezing temperature once again and a Freeze Warning will again be needed for lowland along and south of I 70. VFR should return late Wed night as high pressure begins to build in behind the exiting front. Widespread restrictions are expected Fri thru erly Sat with crossing low pressure.
Temperatures will settle at or slightly below freezing in parts of the higher elevations of the Guadalupe and Davis Mtns.
Upper ridge still centered offshore this evening with a northwesterly jet and short wave moving across southern BC into the Pacific northwest. This disturbance will touch off showers, mainly over the Blues and Wallowas, with snow at the highest elevations.
Temperatures will be a bit warmer today, upper 50s to lower 60s, though clouds may hamper warming a few degrees.
257 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2020 Below average temperatures continue for the region Wednesday, though the slow warming trend continues, with highs breaching into the low 40s today. That being said, it appears model consensus is for the highly amplified pattern in place to gradually de-amplify.
1029 PM MDT Tue Apr 14 2020 Water vapor shows large upper trof covering the lower 48, with distinct short wave over the Dakotas producing snow showers across northeast WY into western SD. Temps should be a bit warmer on Wednesday but still well below average.
Those clouds have since dissipated, so there is a window for temperatures to fall to around freezing in this area before daybreak. Winds will become breezy from the NW this afternoon behind the cold front. Winds will relax tonight as high pressure builds over the area. Low temperatures will stay a few degrees above freezing, and currently thinking winds and lower RH values will prevent frost formation.
322 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2020 High pressure is right over the region this hour, as evidenced by the long automated observing stations showing 3 knots or less of wind this hour.
Winds remain light through the day with a much cooler than average air mass still firmly in place near the surface: Highs are forecast to be in the mid 30s to low 40s.
406 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2020 Scattered showers this morning, then clearing expected this afternoon behind a cold frontal passage.
/issued 349 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2020/ A couple of cold mornings in store as Canadian high pressure centered over central Texas and ridging into the Ohio and Allegheny Valleys remains in place through Thursday.
The system will lean on dynamic cooling for cold air as the cold front sweeps in behind the best dynamics tonight. There is plenty of cold air aloft to support snow growth and dry air near the sfc to support evaporative cooling ahead of the cold front.
with slightly warmer lower 50s south of I-70. Another cold and dry night will be on tap tonight as lows once again drop below freezing. This feature will round the base of the trough and approach Illinois from the west on Thursday.
342 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2020 After subfreezing temperatures and some patchy fog this morning, we should heat into the upper 50s this afternoon. Temperatures will fall into the 30s again Thursday morning, but they should stay just above freezing in most places. Tonight will be the last near-freezing night for at least a week.
The clearing skies and light winds will allow temps to drop down to around freezing, maybe below freezing in the valleys.
1057 PM MDT Tue Apr 14 2020 Satellite imagery and 500mb RAP analysis showed weak northwesterly flow over the High Plains today, with a trough over the Upper Midwest. Northwest flow continues aloft tonight as temperatures fall into the low to mid 20s. A cold front will drop through the region from the north.