Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
(Today and tonight) As the warm layer gets closer to the surface we expect the surface freezing line to continue its slow progression westward today. The third major round of rain/freezing rain moving over western Oklahoma will pass into central Oklahoma around daybreak and last much of the morning. The ice storm warning will be spatially reduced following the freezing line until its expiration around midday. With northwest Oklahoma temperatures around freezing at midday and continuing to move westward, 1 PM still appears reasonable for the final termination of the warning there. A fourth round of rain is expected later this evening and overnight, primarily over the northern half of Oklahoma while the closed upper low translates eastward through the Red River region. After midnight, northwest surface winds will increase and become gusty on the back side of the low.
Across the country, a deep 500 mb low is moving from the SW into western TX, as a subtropical ridge remains anchored east of FL. but forecast wind radii are far more pronounced on the eastern side of the storm as the upper trough picks up the storm and accelerates it to the northeast and out of the area. At the surface, a strong cold front is progged to be located over eastern Mississippi and will continue to push east into Alabama through the day. The shallow cool air will keep afternoon highs in the low to upper 60s with overnight lows dropping into the low to mid 40s.
Temperatures warm into the lower to mid 40s this afternoon with mostly sunny skies. Another weak cold front will move through this evening with winds turning from the WSW to NW tonight.
Low pressure across southern New Mexico will continue to shift eastward over the coming days. The cold, deep upper level low that has brought our active weather over the past couple days is exiting into southern New Mexico this afternoon. Snow shower activity will diminish tonight as the low pulls farther away from the area. Expect much warmer daytime temperatures and lighter winds over the next couple days.
High pressure aloft will expand across the western states the next couple of days. This high pressure will maintain dry conditions with a gradual warming trend returning temperatures to typical late October readings late in the week.
1151 PM CDT Tue Oct 27 2020 Upper low continues to spin over the southern Rockies with a persistent band of mid-level frontogenesis leading to continued precipitation in the southeastern third of the state. Enough warm air aloft leading to a mixed precip falling, with most locations in the CWA reporting freezing rain with surface temps continuing to be just below freezing into the early afternoon. Ground temperatures have generally remained above freezing, keeping impacts somewhat limited. Recent trends in the upper low's track keep it farther south with the northern branch jet sagging south into the northern Plains.
An upper level low will trek south of the area today leading to wrap around precipitation across western Kansas. Freezing rain or sleet is expected through mid morning with the exception of far western Kansas where there could be an addition of snow. This freezing precipitation ends by late morning as temperatures rise above 32.
300 AM CDT Wed Oct 28 2020 ***** On a climatological note, the high temperature yesterday in Tulsa was 36 degrees. ***** Temperatures have slowly risen overnight, with most of northeast OK above freezing. There may be a few spots in far western Osage county that are currently hovering around 32, although temps should continue to rise a little above freezing over the next few hours. Early morning water vapor imagery detected a deep upper cyclone across southeastern NM, with warm conveyor belt precipitation expanding across western/northern TX into southern OK. The higher rain chances will remain focused across northeast OK into northwest AR Wednesday night into Thursday as the upper cyclone moves east along the Red River, with precipitation eventually tapering off Thursday afternoon.
High pressure will continue drifting southward of the area tonight while low pressure moves east through southern Canada. Otherwise, mostly clear skies elsewhere with overnight lows bottoming out in the low-mid 20s. That area of low pressure will drag a cold front through the area later Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night. Northerly winds with high pressure building in from the Plains and partly cloudy skies will keep temperatures in check Thursday with highs in upper 30s to middle 40s.
Widespread rain is expected Thursday and Thursday night with low pressure. A closed upper low is progged to advance out of the Southern Plains Wednesday night and Thursday, as remnant tropical low tracks NE from the Gulf in SW flow ahead of the upper low. This amount varies from the highest amount in the south to lower amounts in the north. Cold advection behind the low could result in some of the rain mixing with snow north of I 80 late Thursday night, though no accumulation is expected.
300 AM MDT Wed Oct 28 2020 The closed low is currently over southern New Mexico and is expected to track east-northeastward today. The only lasting impacts from this low is stratus across portions of the upper San Juan river valley. This stratus will keep temperatures warmer than surrounding locations and should scatter out later this morning. Warm air advection will continue and result in highs being 5-10 degrees warmer than yesterday. The higher October sun angle is working efficiently to melt the recent snow, but this is adding moisture into the boundary layer. The winds do weaken aloft as the low departs the region so that may play a role in the inversions. Tomorrow a ridge tries to build into the region, but it quickly gets suppressed by a deep trough over the Pacific Northwest.
1000 PM MDT Tue Oct 27 2020 Main concern will be the upper low moving across the southern plains and whether or not the associated precipitation makes it into the forecast area. Well lean towards the cooler guidance in those areas, and blend towards the model mean in the southern areas.
Warmer temperatures are expected today as a very large and slow moving storm system approaches from the west.
One more night of chilly temperatures is expected with freezing temperatures possible in portions of southern Gila County, before a strong warming trend begins later this week.
441 AM EDT Wed Oct 28 2020 High pressure briefly settles in on Wednesday and keeps conditions dry in the near term.
IFR/LIFR ceilings and visibilities will persist as the ongoing scattered showers increase in coverage across the entire Four State Region as a strong upper trough moves into West Texas and Tropical Storm, soon to be Hurricane, Zeta continues to approaches the Southeast Louisiana coast. All other grids are in the ballpark with a very wet day expected areawide on Wednesday as the upper level trough continues to approach our region from the west.
1045 PM MDT Tue Oct 27 2020 Moisture rotating around the northern periphery of the closed low has resulted in some lingering cloud cover skirting the southwest corner of the CWA. Despite warmer air moving in aloft, anticipate inversions to strengthen overnight, especially over snow covered valleys. Radiational cooling and recent blanket of snow will set us up for another sub freezing night under clear and calm conditions. On Wednesday, the low starts to lift into the Southern Plains, allowing the western flank of a strong upper level jet to brush over the southeast corner of the CWA. Leaning towards slightly cooler temperatures than guidance during the day.
Widespread rain is expected Thursday and Thursday night with low pressure.
1030 PM MDT Tue Oct 27 2020 Upper level analysis and water vapor imagery show a complex synoptic picture today with a deep, closed low nearly stationary across the southwestern United States and northern stream trough pushing into the Upper Midwest. At the surface, southwesterly flow has advected warmer air into the region. Given the snow cover, many areas have been slow to warm although the higher elevations of the Black Hills have warmed up into the 40s to near 50 as they sit above the shallow, yet steep inversion.
1022 mb high pressure stretched across central IL early this morning, bringing light winds but trapping low to mid level clouds. This evening, as a deep closed low tracks east into the southern Plains, and Zeta lifts northeast across the deep south, an expanding rain shield will stretch northeast into southern and portions of central Illinois. May see more of a nuisance ponding/minor urban flooding especially where leaves are blocking storm drains. A tightening pressure gradient between the remnant Zeta low, and high pressure to the northwest will bring gusty northeast winds to the entire area Thursday, at 20 to 30 mph.
1011 PM MDT Tue Oct 27 2020 The upper flow continues generally north to south across WY today, with the cutoff low gradually shifting east across AZ/NM, with the broad west coast ridge extending eastward across he Four Corners into tomorrow. Have opted for a slightly cooler forecast, due to leftover snowfall at the surface only gradually melting out late today and tomorrow.
gov/sandiego An upper ridge will build into the region through late week with warming temperatures. Gusty north to northeast winds continue early this afternoon, mainly on the ridges and down through the Cajon Pass into the Inland Empire and Orange County. Given that winds are already below warning criteria, the High Wind Warning will be allowed to expire at 2 PM. For Wednesday and Thursday, the flow will be weakly onshore for coastal areas each afternoon as the sea breeze develops, maintaining cooler weather near the beaches. With the upper trough lifting out and weak offshore flow in place, gradual warming will occur for inland areas.
Surface analysis reveals high pressure extending across the FL peninsula, maintaining moderate easterly flow in the boundary layer. Aloft, stout ridging remains anchored, enhancing subsidence in the mid levels. Temperatures for the short term are forecast to be slightly warmer than normals, with most areas experiencing highs in the mid/upper 80s, with the western counties and Gulf coast potentially climbing into the lower 90s.
An upper ridge will maintain mainly dry weather through Thursday.
Rain chances will be on the low side, so will leave out of the forecast at all locations through the period. Interaction between Hurricane Zeta in the central Gulf of Mexico and broad high pressure over the western Atlantic will continue to produce gusty southeast winds around 15-20 knots over the gulf coast waters over the next couple of days.
The most recent low pressure system was heading to the east and out of Arizona during the morning hours.
1048 AM EDT Wed Oct 28 2020 Mean layer ridging is centered over the northern Bahamas and South Florida. The well established anticyclone to our northeast will drive Hurricane Zeta northward into the Mississippi River Delta this evening. Small Craft Advisory cancelled for the coastal waters west of the Seven Mile Bridge, although Small Craft Should continue to Exercise Caution due to east to southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Meanwhile, an Atlantic ridge axis will build westward across the Florida Peninsula tonight and Thursday.
437 AM CDT Wed Oct 28 2020 The main forecast challenge today is focused on the incoming cold front and the precipitation types associated with it. Surface temperatures have already warmed to freezing or above across northwestern and north-central Minnesota this morning, which is a little quicker than anticipated. With the warmer air aloft spreading eastward as well, this may diminish chances for wintry mix across the region this morning with the p-type going to all rain fairly quickly after starting if not starting as rain. Little to no sleet or freezing rain accumulations are expected, but roads may lag behind air temperatures and may become slippery for a brief period before warming above freezing.
339 AM MDT Wed Oct 28 2020 Upper northwest flow will continue to drive the overall pattern across the CWA for today with a broad trough to the east of the region. A warm front will push through the region on Thursday, though most places will remain dry with the passage.
The upper low is fcst to cont working to the E, with Zeta expected to make landfall along the NRN Gulf coast early tngt then race off to the northeast. Incrsg SLY flow wl bring warmer air and abundant Gulf moisture into the Mid-South over the next 24 to 36 hours.
However, a weak cold front could bring a slight chance for light rain or snow to the eastern portion of the hi-Line later today. An upper level ridge off the West Coast will remain in place for the next day or two with northwest flow aloft persisting over Montana. Variable cloud cover continues to make its way over the top of the ridge, through British Columbia, and over central Montana.
516 AM MDT Wed Oct 28 2020 The closed low is currently over southern New Mexico and is expected to track east-northeastward today. The only lasting impacts from this low is stratus across portions of the upper San Juan river valley. This stratus will keep temperatures warmer than surrounding locations and should scatter out later this morning. Warm air advection will continue and result in highs being 5-10 degrees warmer than yesterday. The higher October sun angle is working efficiently to melt the recent snow, but this is adding moisture into the boundary layer. The winds do weaken aloft as the low departs the region so that may play a role in the inversions. Tomorrow a ridge tries to build into the region, but it quickly gets suppressed by a deep trough over the Pacific Northwest.
Have made adjustments to highs and lows based on snow cover and mixed areas and the highs that occurred yesterday.
A weak cold front may bring a brief period of spotty light rain or snow to the eastern portion of the hi-Line late tonight into Wednesday morning. An upper level ridge off the West Coast will remain in place for the next day or two with northwest flow aloft persisting over Montana. Variable cloud cover continues to make its way over the top of the ridge, through British Columbia, and over central Montana.
837 AM CDT Wed Oct 28 2020 The cold front continues to push through the southeastern counties of the CWA and through the coastal waters.
A potent cold front will approach and push through the area this evening from west to east accompanied by its own showers. Meanwhile closer to home, our much anticipated cold front is analyzed basically bisecting the forecast area in a NE-SW fashion. this feature will gradually shift ewd through today which in turn will help push the cold front through the area starting later this afternoon. Dry and much cooler conditions will be the rule behind the front. With the passage of the upper low, skies will clear and nwrly winds will again pick up with breezy conditions expected.
The main forecast challenge today is focused on the incoming cold front and the precipitation types associated with it. Surface temperatures have already warmed to freezing or above across northwestern and north-central Minnesota this morning, which is a little quicker than anticipated. With the warmer air aloft spreading eastward as well, this may diminish chances for wintry mix across the region this morning with the p-type going to all rain fairly quickly after starting if not starting as rain. Little to no sleet or freezing rain accumulations are expected, but roads may lag behind air temperatures and may become slippery for a brief period before warming above freezing.
654 AM CDT Wed Oct 28 2020 The main forecast challenge today is focused on the incoming cold front and the precipitation types associated with it. Surface temperatures have already warmed to freezing or above across northwestern and north-central Minnesota this morning, which is a little quicker than anticipated. With the warmer air aloft spreading eastward as well, this may diminish chances for wintry mix across the region this morning with the p-type going to all rain fairly quickly after starting if not starting as rain. Little to no sleet or freezing rain accumulations are expected, but roads may lag behind air temperatures and may become slippery for a brief period before warming above freezing.
As the upper trough moves toward the northeast, precipitation will end today, across West Central Texas. Meanwhile, surface temperatures at or just below freezing will continue the potential, for freezing drizzle or freezing rain, mainly across the Big Country this morning.
A western Atlantic low level ridge axis will drop down the southern half of the South Florida Peninsula, to near our area by late Thursday. This ridge axis will retreat eastward, as a large and strong continental area of high pressure bridges over a trough settling equatorward through the Sunshine State. But until then, deep layered ridging will limit moisture so only a slight chance of showers will be retained through Thursday.
Largely stable conditions are expected, with mid-level high pressure anchored over the western Atlantic and Hurricane Zeta making landfall in Louisiana later today. In addition, record warm lows could be in jeopardy, with Daytona Beach, Melbourne, and Leesburg on track to set new records today, should the low temperatures hold. Easterly flow veering ESE/SE this afternoon, as high pressure shifts further into the western Atlantic and Hurricane Zeta makes landfall along the Louisiana coastline.
Temperatures warm into the lower to mid 40s this afternoon with partly sunny skies. Another weak cold front will move through this evening with winds turning from the WSW to NW tonight.
Across the Sacramento Valley, winds are generally light, temperatures significantly cooler, and RH's significantly higher compared to 24 hours ago. Much more quiet weather looks to be in store for the rest of the week as high pressure from the eastern Pacific moves over the region.
310 AM MDT Wed Oct 28 2020 An upper low moves out of southeast New Mexico this morning, across the Texas panhandle region today, and into southeast Oklahoma by Thursday morning. With the more southerly track this system is taking, increasing clouds will affect mainly the southern portion of the forecast area, bringing a chance of light rain to the southern reaches of the forecast area along with temperatures that are slightly cooler than the northern portion of the forecast area. The light rain may mix with light snow this evening as temperatures drop below freezing again.
645 AM EDT Wed Oct 28 2020 High pressure briefly settles in on Wednesday and keeps conditions dry in the near term.
Widespread rain is expected Thursday and Thursday night with low pressure. A weak low pressure system continues to track across the forecast area today bringing a continued period of light rain. The continued westerly flow with return flow from the high in the southeast will keep cloud cover over the forecast area through this evening and beyond. An upper low will over the Southern Plains will transition east late tonight and into Thursday as the remnants of Zeta move north out of the Gulf states.
Road temps in the north central have risen above freezing, but POPs are also tapering off, in line with radar returns mostly crossing into FGF's forecast area. Early this morning, broad longwave troughing extended from British Columbia to the northeastern CONUS, with northwest flow aloft over the Northern Plains. At the surface, low pressure was centered in southeast Manitoba, with a weak cold front draped west to east slowly dropping south. There is a chance of freezing rain in the far north central / Turtle Mountains area, with NDDOT road temperatures below freezing in Dunseith. Road temps in Rugby have warmed above freezing so thinking this will be a small spatial area at risk for freezing rain.
The concern will be for the typical cool spots in the higher areas of the Smokey Hills between Detroit Lakes and Park Rapids and points north to the Fosston area as they remain clear and temps here have fallen into the mid and upper 20s. These areas could see some light freezing rain/icing if the light precip can saturate the column before temps rise above freezing. Elsewhere across the northern valley and into the Devils Lake basin just rain is expected as temp and wet bulb remain above freezing with road temps also all above 32 this morning. Temps in the low to mid 30s expected Thursday will make for a rain snow mix possible in the afternoon across the Devils Lake area.
652 AM CDT Wed Oct 28 2020 Widespread drizzle is occurring over the region, with the lowest visibilities over west Kentucky. , a strong upper low will move from north Texas eastward to just south of the PAH forecast area by midday Thursday. High pressure will build in to our west Thursday night, and clouds will decrease as some chillier air moves into the region. Highs today will be in the upper 50s to lower 60s, and from the lower 50s to lower 60s Thursday.
Meanwhile closer to home, our much anticipated cold front is analyzed basically bisecting the forecast area in a NE-SW fashion. this feature will gradually shift ewd through today which in turn will help push the cold front through the area starting later this afternoon. Dry and much cooler conditions will be the rule behind the front. With the passage of the upper low, skies will clear and nwrly winds will again pick up with breezy conditions expected.
A strong cold front will move through the area on the heels of Zeta bringing much cooler and drier conditions to the area over the weekend. Once Zeta moves through the area, a cold front will sweep through the area tomorrow. A cold front will then push through tomorrow before things begin to subside over the weekend.
High pressure aloft will expand across the western states through the end of the week. The forecast area remains under a dry northerly flow aloft, situated between an upper low spinning across the southern High Plains, and an expansive mid level ridge centered off the northern California coast. As the airmass across the forecast area continues to modify, max temps will trend 4-7F warmer across the north valleys including the Wasatch Front, and 7-10F warmer across the southern valleys this afternoon. The upstream ridge is forecast to spread inland through the remainder of the week resulting a continued warming trend.
The upper low which brought snow to our region is now moving eastward across southern New Mexico. The low will continue to track east and northeast through tonight into Texas. Elsewhere, current satellite and observations showing low clouds/patchy fog across the high mountain valleys again this morning with moisture trapped in low level inversions. A bit cooler north of Denver and along and north of the S Platte River Basin with lower to mid 30s. Have dropped highs over the high mountain valleys again below mos guidance with continued low level inversions in place for today and tonight.
High pressure will remain over the western United States over the next several days. The upper low that has been tracking across the Desert Southwest is moving into Texas this morning. Behind it, high pressure centered off the California coast is building into the Great Basin, keeping Utah and southwest Wyoming under a dry northerly flow aloft. The warming trend in temperatures will continue today, with maxes running around 5F above yesterday's values over northern Utah, and up to 10F warmer over southern Utah. As high pressure continues to build, the warming trend will continue for the remainder of the work week.
Broad ridge over the PacNW will settle in over the next few days and drive clear and quiet weather through most of the work week. Building high pressure will continue to create air stagnation concerns for the foothills of the WA Cascades, otherwise conditions will be dry, with temps warming up to the 60s in the Basin, and as high as the low 70s in central OR.
Highs will range from the low 40s northeast to the low 50s west. A weak cold front will move in Thursday night with clear skies.