Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
300 AM MDT Thu Jul 7 2022 Latest upper air analysis and satellite imagery show a mesoscale convective system (MCS) under an upper level short wave trough over the High Plains. Today the upper level ridge will strengthen, building further north over the Rockies. A small scale upper level short wave trough will move off the Rockies and toward the forecast area during the late afternoon. Am expecting isolated to scattered storms to accompany the short wave trough east off the mountains. Highs will be a few degrees warmer than yesterday due to the ridge gradually intensifying. Tonight the short wave trough will move through the forecast area. Due to the ridge being so close to the forecast area, confidence is on the low side regarding rainfall.
Overnight lows will be limited to the low 80s across most of the area, which could break records for warmest low temperatures (mainly for central Oklahoma).
And with the high dewpoints in the area, it will quickly become hot.
The core of the upper level high that has been dominating our weather pattern has begun to shift west and is centered over the New Mexico area. High temperatures will remain well above average as the 850 mb thermal ridge continues to slowly strengthen, especially across northern and western portions of the CWA. Temperatures in the Concho Valley and Heartland northward will be in the 102-106 degree range, with the highest temperatures expected in the Big Country. Continued subsidence from the upper high will keep the area dry and skies mostly clear.
One area over the offshore Gulf waters northwest of the Lower Keys is co-located with the trailing (traditionally wetter) flank of a departing tropical easterly wave. The main result for the Florida Keys will be a gradual disruption of the east to southeasterlies produced from a strong dome of high pressure centered north of the Azores.
214 AM CDT Thu Jul 7 2022 An MCS rolling eastward off of the high plains of western Kansas is progged to gradually weaken across western and central KS as we move through the early morning hours.
Temperatures should stay steady in the lower to mid 70s areawide and patchy fog will form in areas that received rainfall. KRS Chattanooga Airport, TN 95 75 95 75 90 / 50 30 50 50 70 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 95 75 94 74 87 / 50 30 60 60 70 Oak Ridge, TN 93 74 93 72 87 / 50 30 60 60 70 Tri Cities Airport, TN 90 71 89 71 82 / 50 30 60 60 70.
A temporary break in riding will lead to a slow moving cold front to move southward over north-central Kansas this afternoon.
One noticeable change today versus yesterday is that a downturn in storm activity and coverage is expected due to the high pressure ridge building back to the west, resulting in the monsoonal moisture tap to be cut off with drier air also advecting in from the southwest. Thunderstorms are expected to redevelop Thursday afternoon, but mainly be focused along the higher terrain along the divide. With drier air anticipated at the low and mid levels, this points to gusty outflow winds and maybe small hail being more of a threat than heavy rain with storm activity today.
233 AM MDT Thu Jul 7 2022 MORNING DISCUSSION: Synoptic Setup: Hot high pressure lies anchored over the Four Corners with a ridge jutting northward out of it through Idaho and into British Columbia. A closed low lies off the coast of British Columbia and the area between these dominant airmasses is providing an express lane for pacific moisture and weak disturbances from northern California through eastern Montana.
High pressure to the north will bring predominately dry conditions to the remainder of the region for the next several days.
1109 PM EDT Wed Jul 6 2022 A weak cold front will stall out along or just south of the Mason-Dixon Line overnight, and remain the focus for scattered showers and thunderstorms through the end of this week. Thanks to the high pressure which will be pressing the front southward, much of the next 5 to 6 days will be dry, though, especially north of the PA Turnpike. Latest model runs seem to indicate a better southward push by the dry air/high pressure for Thurs and Fri than we have had going for a couple of days. The passage of a stronger cold front later Fri aftn/night may yet cause SHRA/TSRA over a good portion of the far SE.
While the atmosphere starts out the morning capped, cooler air from the east is advected in at the mid levels throughout the day which will erode the cap and enable convection west river.
Be prepared for yet another soupy morning with current temperatures in the low 80s and dewpoint temperatures in the upper 70s.
Around 100 will be possible across the lower terrain of the southeast counties.
124 AM EDT Thu Jul 7 2022 A weak cold front will stall out along or just south of the Mason-Dixon Line overnight, and remain the focus for scattered showers and thunderstorms through the end of this week. Thanks to the high pressure which will be pressing the front southward, much of the next 5 to 6 days will be dry, though, especially north of the PA Turnpike. This upstream trend of decreasing convection/dry advection will translate east into the Lower Susq River Valley over the next few hours. Latest model runs seem to indicate a better southward push by the dry air/high pressure for Thurs and Fri than we have had going for a couple of days. The passage of a stronger cold front later Fri aftn/night may yet cause SHRA/TSRA over a good portion of the far SE.
341 AM EDT Thu Jul 7 2022 Discussion/Marine - Some Fog Possible Early This Morning - High pressure over northern Lake Superior continues to spread south this morning leading to light and variable winds and decreasing cloud cover.
Drier and cooler air is expected by the weekend. Overnight lows will be in the 60s, about 5 degrees warmer than the climatological averages. As we head into the latter portion of the week, models begin suggesting the amplification of the central CONUS ridge and the downstream northeast troughing. Continued southwest flow in the low-levels will keep a warm, moist airmass in place south of the front.
High pressure will influence the region through the day Thursday. Subtle dry air advection will work across the region through the evening hours and will start to scour out cloud cover as upper level divergence and a subsequent high pressure system builds in. Dry conditions will carry on into Thursday under the influence of high pressure, with any lingering stratus development expected to scour out through the afternoon. Periods of sunshine will help push temperatures into the lower 80s for a daytime high under a broader translucent cirrus shield from upstream activity over the Midwest.
339 AM EDT Thu Jul 7 2022 Dry conditions to start the day as high pressure moves through the central Great Lakes. This will help daytime high temperatures climb back into the lower/mid 80s for most of southeast Michigan. Flow within the lowest 5kft is around 10 knots or less, so expecting a very light northerly wind at the surface today.
900 PM PDT Wed Jul 6 2022 Gradual warming will begin on Thursday as high pressure aloft builds, and our marine layer becomes more shallow and shrinks back to coastal areas. With less deep of a marine layer and the low pressure trough finally starting to retreat north, high temperatures Thursday should return to near normal for July. The high amplitude trough that has been anchored along the West Coast for the past week or so will be retreating as the subtropical high builds north over the Rockies through the coming weekend.
1201 AM CDT Thu Jul 7 2022 (This evening through Thursday) The upper level high that has been the dominant player in our weather pattern will continue to expand westward across the area and even strengthen as we move through Thursday.
We may hit our 20th 100 degree day this afternoon as the upper ridge expands westward with clearing skies and increasing thickness. In fact, much of the Permian Basin and Trans Pecos should reach the triple digits while the mountains will stay "cooler" in the 90s.
SHORT TERM (Now through Friday): The ridge of high pressure maintaining hot and generally dry conditions across Deep South Texas begins to walk further westward into the weekend.
While the atmosphere starts out the morning capped, cooler air from the east is advected in at the mid levels throughout the day which will erode the cap and enable convection west river. Friday, warmer air is advected into the mid levels from the west in the morning and from the south in the afternoon to increase temperatures and keep the atmosphere at least moderately capped.
Daytime temperatures will also continue to warm as high pressure aloft strengthens and becomes centered north of the area.
636 AM CDT Thu Jul 7 2022 Summary: A cold front will be sliding in from the northwest today and may generate some light showers this morning. High pressure settles in for Friday.
High pressure will remain draped over the North Country today, leading to a pleasant summer day. Fair weather cumulus will bubble up this afternoon, especially over the higher terrain, but no rain is expected. Flow turns southward overnight ahead of this feature, keeping overnight temperatures 5-10 degrees warmer than the previous night. Highs will range from the mid 70s in the mountains to the lower 80s in the Champlain and Connecticut Valleys.
However, PWATs will gradually start to decrease throughout the day as the upper-level ridge over the Plains amplifies and begins to shift further west. A disturbance moving through the ridge today should help facilitate thunderstorm development this afternoon. Model soundings look a bit drier in the low-levels, so as a result, DCAPE values have increased above 1000 J/kg. The ridge axis shifts directly over the CWA so temperatures begin to heat back up into the 90s and upper 80s. Another disturbance within the ridge should trigger some afternoon thunderstorms as there is still enough moisture and instability present. Thunderstorms will likely be high-based and develop off the high terrain before moving into the plains.
Today and tonight: A weak cold front is expected to drift southward through the area late this afternoon into this evening. Friday: Drier air is expected to arrive from the north as high pressure builds into the area from Canada.
We continue to remain under a generally east to southeast flow as the subtropical ridge axis lies to our north. Ridge axis will remain to our north with plenty of moisture present in the boundary layer. From synopsis, high pressure centered north of the Azores in the east-central Atlantic will maintain gentle to moderate east to southeast breezes over the Florida Keys coastal waters through the end of the work week.
At the surface, weak high pressure is in place across the Northern Plains. Large convective complexes over North Dakota and Nebraska will continue to shift east as upper ridge slowly builds into the area. Weak surface trof lingers across western SD long enough to be the focus for thunderstorms again today.
710 AM EDT Thu Jul 7 2022 Aviation - Some Fog Possible Early This Morning - High pressure over northern Lake Superior continues to spread south this morning leading to light and variable winds and decreasing cloud cover. - Beautiful Weekend Ahead - High pressure centered over Lake Superior builds back into the region late Friday and lasting through the weekend.
541 AM CDT Thu Jul 7 2022 An MCS rolling eastward off of the high plains of western Kansas is progged to gradually weaken across western and central KS as we move through the early morning hours. More seasonable temperatures are anticipated for most areas with highs in the 90s although humidity will remain high with dewpoint temperatures in the lower 70s yielding heat index values in the 100-105 degree range near the Oklahoma state line. The mid/upper ridge will begin to build back over the area late in the period while a stable post-frontal regime remains entrenched across the area on Sat.
647 AM EDT Thu Jul 7 2022 High pressure will be centered over Southeast Michigan today. Dry conditions to start the day as high pressure moves through the central Great Lakes. This will help daytime high temperatures climb back into the lower/mid 80s for most of southeast Michigan. Flow within the lowest 5kft is around 10 knots or less, so expecting a very light northerly wind at the surface today. Subtle mid level height falls will also intrude over the area being driven by the Low pressure moving southeast through northern Quebec helping to direct some of this energy over Michigan while also dropping a frontal boundary into Michigan Friday morning. The highest PoPs will be across southern portions of the CWA. This high pressure will become established over the Great Lakes for the weekend.
Although the highest amounts look to stay just west of our area, we will need to keep an eye on the heaviest storms that train over the same areas, especially where heavy rains fell in southern Sangamon and Christian counties yesterday evening. Most guidance suggests the highest amounts will fall somewhere from a Quincy to Mattoon line.
attached to low pressure developing over the Central Plains. A weaker area of low pressure is centered just north of Minnesota. High pressure remains centered across the Great Lakes. High pressure center will push SE of Michigan later today. Weak upstream cold front will drop thru Upper Michigan this afternoon and then thru Northern Lower Michigan tonight. High Impact Weather Potential: None Pattern Synopsis/Forecast Details: Troughing will continue to pivot across New England on Friday as upper-level ridging behind it slides across the northern CONUS.
With how much cloud coverage these storms are putting off it's helping keep temperature a few degrees cooler than previously forecasted. KRS Chattanooga Airport, TN 95 75 96 76 91 / 60 30 60 50 70 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 92 75 93 75 89 / 50 30 70 50 80 Oak Ridge, TN 92 74 92 73 88 / 50 30 70 50 80 Tri Cities Airport, TN 89 71 89 71 84 / 50 30 60 60 80 TN.
/issued 416 AM CDT Thu Jul 7 2022/ SHORT TERM (Now through Friday): The ridge of high pressure maintaining hot and generally dry conditions across Deep South Texas begins to walk further westward into the weekend.
Potentially dangerous heat will continue as a hot upper level ridge sprawls across the southern states.
Near the surface, a weak cold front extends from the southern Texas Panhandle northeast into south central Kansas. Around 100 will be possible across the lower terrain of the southeast counties.
We went ahead and pushed the Excessive Heat Watch to a Warning for the lower elevations of the Grand Canyon.
Short term (through Friday night): Our unsettled summertime pattern continues through the short term as strong mid-to-upper level ridging remains in place over the SE CONUS. With the strong ridging still in place, temperatures will remain in the low to mid 90s for the entirety of the CWA, and heat indexes could reach the low 100s with peak diurnal heating.
Little has changed in the overall weather pattern with western Montana and north central Idaho positioned between a low pressure system off the Pacific northwest coastline and high pressure through the central Plains. The pattern begins to change over the weekend as the low pressure trough begins to move inland, turning the upper level flow more westerly.
Cooler weather is expected this weekend. A summertime high pressure center was analyzed over southeast Oklahoma overnight with convection ongoing across the southern Cornbelt. Joplin has been warmer and should see highs back into the triple digits with heat index values reaching 103 to 109 degrees. Surface winds will respond to a weak cold front that moves through the entire Ozarks region.
And with the high dewpoints in the area, it will quickly become hot. For Friday, models have trended faster with the cold front so at this time it looks like the entire forecast area will see cooler weather, which is really just closer to normal. There may also be scattered showers and storms in the area though as cooler air aloft moves overhead.
Be prepared for yet another soupy morning with current temperatures in the low 80s and dewpoint temperatures in the upper 70s. By Friday afternoon a ridge that has been dominating the area will move westward allowing a weak cold front to push into the Mid-South.
Main forecast challenge for today and tonight has been pops for a few reasons, mainly tied back to model disagreements in timing, location, and strength of short waves through the flat ridge aloft. Highs climb into the lower/mid 80s, with lows tonight on the milder side in the mid/upper 60s. Precip should continue to diminish with the departing wave and ridge beginning to amplify just to the west.
Subtropical ridge is starting to build from the south as a quasi- stationary boundary is in our southern CWA. After Friday, the heat returns as the ridge builds over the central CONUS. The ridge axis shifts west and 700 mb temps cool somewhat, allowing at least a small chance of precip/t-storms into mid-week, but then becomes positively tilted later in the week, helping to curtail t-storm chances with warmer 700 mb temps helping to tamp down precip chances.
Latest 07/12Z model and numerical guidance shows the center of the broad H500 high pressure system over northern NM by tomorrow afternoon. With weak northerly H500 flow, convection over the high terrain tomorrow of NM/CO will develop once again tomorrow and could move into the more favored northern Panhandles through tomorrow night.
226 PM CDT Thu Jul 7 2022 Sub-tropical ridging persists across the region with broadly cyclonic flow encroaching the western U. Sincavage The upper level ridge will continue to edge west from Friday evening through the rest of the weekend. Current mid level moisture plume overhead will become trapped underneath the ridge as it moves west.
240 PM CDT Thu Jul 7 2022 The upper level high continues to dominate the weather. The upper level high will continue till Friday evening when the high pressure system retrogrades to the west and we begin to bring in a weak upper level disturbance from the Canadian Maritime Low of the east coast.
Water vapour showed wave east of the CWA, which is helping convection along outflow boundary with upper ridge building in behind it. Friday, upper/thermal ridge builds into the CWA.
High pressure to the north will cause predominately dry conditions for the remainder of the region for the next several days. Won't go too cool in that area, then, hanging on the higher side of guidance for lows. That wave focuses the highest chance for showers on Fri night just about the time a better cold front pushes southward across the state. But, recent trends and dry air moving down under the big high pressure over the Great Lakes argue for only small chcs for precip, and for thunder to be unlikely.
Most areas along and south of Highway 412 should still see triple digit highs, with slightly cooler values along the Kansas and Missouri border. Despite the cooler temperatures associated with the boundary, higher low level moisture pooled along it will make it feel more muggy than today, offsetting the small cooldown.
811 AM PDT Thu Jul 7 2022 High pressure will be strengthening over the Southwest into the weekend. This will mean progressively warmer weather, especially inland, where afternoon sea breezes will not be as effective. A shallow marine layer and onshore flow each day will keep coastal areas cooler, but night and morning low clouds and patchy fog will be more limited. This sets us up for a warmer day, especially the far inland valleys and foothill areas, where the marine influence will be much less pronounced.
The mid level s/w trough partly responsible for today's convection is progged to continue to track eastward and out of our region tonight. The upper ridge will continue to gradually build over the top of our area with increasing heights aloft and a warm advection pattern kicking in by late in the period. The period starts of with the CONUS being under a fairly amplified mid level flow pattern featuring a ridge over the high plains, and trofs in both the northeast and northwest CONUS. Meanwhile, that trof over the northwest will gradually move over the ridge and through the Northern Plains this upcoming weekend.
Latest model suite indicates the center of the 500mb ridge to pass across Texas Friday with subsidence at its maximum for the week. Lows overnight hovering near normal, 75-80 degrees, with a few rural areas dipping into the lower 70s due to clear skies and the subsident stable drier air.
Strong high pressure over Texas will continue to provide good flying conditions, VFR and light to moderate winds the rest of today, tonight and Friday. /issued 416 AM CDT Thu Jul 7 2022/ SHORT TERM (Now through Friday): The ridge of high pressure maintaining hot and generally dry conditions across Deep South Texas begins to walk further westward into the weekend.
Not too much cooler for the southern half of the region with projected highs in the mid and upper 90s.
Also, the latest deterministic models as well as CAMs indicate that the stalled front will begin to lift northward as a warm front this morning with an ongoing MCS over northwestern Missouri tracking to the southeast along the front as the southerly low level jet veers through the morning hours. With the atmosphere taking some time to recover after current activity exits and when another complex develops and moves in tonight, feel that severe chances are on the low side. As for the issue of possibly extending the Excessive Heat Warning for portions of southeast Missouri on Friday, it will depend on the timing of the cold front and precipitation.
153 PM EDT Thu Jul 7 2022 Aviation - Some Fog Possible Early This Morning - High pressure over northern Lake Superior continues to spread south this morning leading to light and variable winds and decreasing cloud cover. - Beautiful Weekend Ahead - High pressure centered over Lake Superior builds back into the region late Friday and lasting through the weekend.
The exception is across northwest Oklahoma, where it is (relatively) cooler behind a cold front. The cold front is forecast to gradually move southward and should be located somewhere close to I-40 tomorrow afternoon. Slightly "cooler" weather will occur behind this boundary.
Mild overnight lows expected with mid 50s to lower 60s likely in the population centers, cooler in the high country of course.
(This afternoon through Friday night) The upper level ridge across the southern US continues to dominate the weather pattern with above average temperatures and declining precipitation chances expected. As the upper ridge slides westward through Friday, monsoonal moisture will be nudged westward as well, now with only isolated thunderstorm chances in the Davis Mountains into southeast New Mexico for the afternoon. High temperatures tomorrow will remain largely unchanged from today, once again peaking in the low 100s for the Permian Basin and Pecos/Rio Grande river valleys with 90s in the higher elevations.
a mix of IFR/MVFR conditions with terrain obscurations will persist early this morning, with the lowest conditions south of Cape Blanco.
249 PM CDT Thu Jul 7 2022 (Issued 249 PM CDT Thu Jul 7 2022) Tonight through Friday night: Variable clouds continue across the region this afternoon, with early afternoon temperatures generally in the low 80s. Highs tomorrow will be cooler, with upper 70s to low 80s inland, and upper 60s to around 70 near Lake Michigan, with a brisk northeast wind off the lake.
-- Dry with seasonal temperatures this weekend -- Certainty is high for a dry weekend thanks to an amplifying upper ridge upstream and attendant surface anticyclogenesis.
After that, cooler and drier conditions will be on tap for the upcoming weekend.
Ample moisture remains with surface dewpoints holding in the 60s(F) throughout west central/southwest Kansas and even the lower/mid 70s(F) in south central Kansas, providing sufficient instability with SBCAPE values expected to exceed 1000 J/kg as lapse rates steepen with diurnal heating this afternoon. Look for lows well down into the 60s(F) in west central Kansas to the lower 70s(F) in south central Kansas.