Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
SHORT TERM (Today through Wednesday): Weak high pressure encompassing the FL peninsula and rising heights aloft will help keep dry and pleasant weather in place the next several days. Daytime highs will be in the lower to mid 70s across South Florida with overnight lows dipping into the upper 40s to lower 50s across the interior/Lake region and upper 50s near 60 over the eastern coastal and metro areas.
Clayton has been reporting snow for a few hours now, with the lowest visibility reported so far being 1 and 1/2 miles for around 10 minutes.
This feature is forecast to drop into northern Iowa by this afternoon and has pushed a surface cold front through the region overnight, turning winds around to the northwest.
Briefing warming near the low track with low 20s in Jamestown and Carrington vs teens and single digits Devils Lake and Fargo. West winds behind the trough, gusting to 30-35 kts in DVL basin and a very quick but impressive warmup with highs Wednesday above freezing in all areas. Light snow south of the low to our north may skirt Lake of the Woods.
This was helping to generate some weak to moderate lift and with some marginally favorable temperatures in the low to mid levels, especially along and east of the Buffalo Ridge early this morning through late morning, some light snow with minor accumulations is expected.
Much warmer across Middle Tennessee this morning versus yesterday thanks to ongoing WAA, with current temperatures in the mid 30s to upper 40s. Radar is showing considerable virga across Kentucky, and additional sprinkles and light rain showers are anticipated to develop later this morning as a weak cold front moves southeast across the area. Otherwise, mild start today will lead to an even warmer day than yesterday with highs reaching the upper 40s to mid 50s.
An area of low pressure was located over central North Dakota at 09Z/3 AM, while the low pressure that has been affecting the Northland for the past few days lingers just east of the area. The synoptic snow showers and flurries are getting an assist from a short wave trof moving through the area. One more stronger trof will move through the Northland this afternoon. Additional snow showers/flurries area expected initially, before drier air arrives ahead of an approaching ridge to end the snow. There will be some pockets of sunshine in the afternoon ahead of the ridge. As the ridging moves overhead tonight, warm air advection gets underway ahead of low pressure moving through the Canadian Prairies.
943 AM EST Tue Jan 19 2021 High pressure builds southwest of the region today. A cold front moves across the region on Wednesday.
536 AM EST Tue Jan 19 2021 Another cool morning across the Florida Keys with temperatures in the lower to mid 60s with mostly clear skies and an echo-free radar.
Lastly, saturation is noted in the lowest 700mb and steep lapse rates at times. Any lingering lake effect snow toward southwest Michigan will ease Wednesday morning as ridging move in.
A lee side trough forms tonight and continues Wed.
334 AM CST Tue Jan 19 2021 Cold front has pushed into far southeast Oklahoma/west-central Arkansas early this morning.
Under clear skies and southwesterly flow from the column deep ridging, temperatures will warm into the upper 40s to low 50s, 5-12 degrees above normal for this time of year.
RAP13 model data fed through BUFKIT showcases steep low level lapse rates developing across mainly the western half of the CWA early this morning as the low level CAA ramps up on northwest winds.
541 AM CST Tue Jan 19 2021 (Today and tonight) The cold front has sagged south of our area early this morning. Today will be much cooler for our area, with cloudy skies and northeast winds. By later today an upper low will be off the southwest coast of California. This low will move south and be located to the west of Baja region by early Wednesday morning. Our area will be under southwest flow aloft, out ahead of this low.
404 AM EST Tue Jan 19 2021 High pressure will build across the area this morning. Another dry cold front will move southeast across the Mid-Atlantic states and the Carolinas tonight.
Breezy northeasterly surface flow will continue today ushering in cooler temperatures than what we've seen for the last week. Multi- layer cloud decks will be on the increase as the day progresses though the lowest deck should remain confined to our southern row or two.
Flow aloft remains amplified across the CONUS, with an upper low digging southwestward across NV/W CA. Some high-res guidance suggests a brief period of light snow/flurries across far northern Nebraska after cold frontal passage this morning. Still, have included flurry mention through early afternoon generally along the Highway 20 corridor in Cherry County and eastward.
341 AM CST Tue Jan 19 2021 A strong cold front has now moved through the region, having reached the Rio Grande as of 330AM CST. Cold advection and increasing cloud cover will keep temperatures well below normal this afternoon, with highs struggling to make it out of the 40s for most locations, and upper 30s possible across higher terrain, 20-30 degrees cooler than those temperatures experienced yesterday. A trough currently digging from Nevada southwestward across southern California has resulted in southwesterly flow aloft across Southeast New Mexico and West Texas, with this southwesterly flow expected to continue the next few days as the aforementioned trough develops into a cutoff low off the coast of Baja.
831 AM EST Tue Jan 19 2021 High pressure will remain in place over South Florida today keeping the weather. SHORT TERM (Today through Wednesday): Weak high pressure encompassing the FL peninsula and rising heights aloft will help keep dry and pleasant weather in place the next several days. Daytime highs will be in the lower to mid 70s across South Florida with overnight lows dipping into the upper 40s to lower 50s across the interior/Lake region and upper 50s near 60 over the eastern coastal and metro areas.
The upper low quickly moves off the SoCal shoreline by mid day but the deformation zone will be slower to shut off and shear apart. Expect a mainly dry forecast by early Wednesday as more of a split flow pattern takes over the Intermountain West due to the upper low remaining off the Baja Coastline. By Wednesday evening the low off the coast of the Baja will begin lifting northeastward.
/Today through Wednesday/ Cold front associated with nrn stream upper trof axis over the Great Lakes region continues to drift swd across our region this morning. The front and its associated convection will continue slowly swd today before stalling just to our s overnight, as the upper trof pivots sewd.
Overnight temps look to fall into the single digits inland and the low teens for areas closer to the lake front while even colder wind chills around 0 degrees F are expected. As this low, which will remain to our north, pushes east it is expected to drag a cold front across WI overnight Wednesday and bring westerly winds across WI.
Mainly mid level cloudiness with ceilings above 6k feet will spread across the terminals today ahead of a weak cold front located across northeast Texas and northern Louisiana. High pressure has become centered over northern Florida this morning while a cold front stretches from the mid- Mississippi Valley to the Big Bend of Texas. Moisture remains fairly limited with the cold front, however along and ahead of the boundary light showers and patchy areas of rain are ongoing from Central Texas through North LA, South AR, and North MS. Today the cold front will continue slowly south and weaken.
A weather system developing to our west is expected to result in cooler temperatures, occasional gusty winds, and a chance of valley rain and mountain snow showers starting later today and continuing into the weekend.
557 AM CST Tue Jan 19 2021 A cold front continues to move through the state and will be marked by a wind shift to the North to Northwest.
High pressure across the area today will gradually be absorbed into another high pressure center moving into the Lower MS Valley late tonight. It will not be as cold tonight as this morning's lows, but it will still be chilly with lows in the low to mid 40s for much of east central FL, except low to mid 50s along the southern Treasure Coast. High pressure will keep winds rather light and variable with a slight increase to 7-9 knots along the coast this afternoon out of the E/NE. Favorable boating conditions expected with high pressure across the area.
(Today and tonight) The cold front has sagged south of our area early this morning. Today will be much cooler for our area, with cloudy skies and northeast winds. By later today an upper low will be off the southwest coast of California. This low will move south and be located to the west of Baja region by early Wednesday morning. Our area will be under southwest flow aloft, out ahead of this low.
548 AM CST Tue Jan 19 2021 Relatively narrow band of shwrs along a swd-drifting cold front will bring some MVFR/IFR cigs/vsbys to the terminals today. While we may see some improvement for sites along and n of I-20 as the cold front moves s of these areas, KLFK is not likely to see improvement before the end of the pd. /Today through Wednesday/ Cold front associated with nrn stream upper trof axis over the Great Lakes region continues to drift swd across our region this morning. The front and its associated convection will continue slowly swd today before stalling just to our s overnight, as the upper trof pivots sewd.
Upper level ridge strengthens over the southern Gem State with the axis directly overhead by this evening. NAM is tending warmer than the GFS, and the NBM is colder for highs, warmer for lows. Airflow is more zonal, turning to southwesterly at the end of the night and the forecast area still in the overrunning portion of the low.
621 AM EST Tue Jan 19 2021 High pressure will build across the area this morning. Another dry cold front will move southeast across the Mid-Atlantic states and the Carolinas tonight.
This moisture will combine with a developing pre-frontal trough across the Rio Grande Plains leading to increasing rain chances across the west through the afternoon. A weak cold front will move across the Hill Country today and slowly east to southeast across the CWA tonight. Temps will remain cooler across the northwestern CWA, with more mild (but above normal) temps across the east on Wed.
720 AM EST Tue Jan 19 2021 Fluctuating temperature and periodic snow showers are expected for most of the week, with the best chance for accumulating snow tonight and Wednesday with a cold front. Advisory level accumulations of 2 to 4 inches are expected across the Laurel Highlands and the higher terrain of West Virginia, where a Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for tonight through Wednesday morning.
Latest surface analysis places an area of low pressure over Paducah, Kentucky with an attendant cold front strewn across SEMO and back into Little Rock, Arkansas. The aforementioned cold front will sag down through the Mid-South today. Expect low temperatures to drop to around freezing across the entire area.
631 AM EST Tue Jan 19 2021 High pressure builds southwest of the region today. A cold front moves across the region on Wednesday.
440 AM EST Tue Jan 19 2021 Fluctuating temperature and periodic snow showers are expected for most of the week, with the best chance for accumulating snow tonight and Wednesday with a cold front. Advisory level accumulations of 2 to 4 inches are expected across the Laurel Highlands and the higher terrain of West Virginia, where a Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for tonight through Wednesday morning.
The weekend will also serve as a kickoff to cooler, inclement weather in general, that will likely last beyond the scope of this forecast. Wind will again be a bit breezy today with steep low-level lapse rater with highs in the lower to mid 40s.
Second wave of the NorCal wind event is underway as strong northeast upper jet, associated with the closed low digging southwest through the Great Basin, moves over the region.
/Issued 334 AM CST Tue Jan 19 2021/ Cold front has pushed into far southeast Oklahoma/west-central Arkansas early this morning.
A closed low will continue to shift southwest over the southern Great Basin, then offshore of the SoCal coast today. Dry conditions are expected to prevail as weak high pressure expands through the region.
There's substantial warming aloft, but this will mainly affect the ridges and east slopes overnight. The previous forecast and guidance looks good here, with temperatures dropping to the lower 20s, then rising closer to 30 overnight in the Denver area.
Cool high pressure will prevail over the greater region today. We will see some mid to high level clouds drift by as well as a mid level trof amplifies across the CONUS. The good news is that the fire danger will be less today with the cooler highs and resultant higher afternoon relative humidity. The may result is slightly warmer minimums with more mid to upper 20s versus more seasonal upper teens to lower 20s. This may be particularly true south of the Highway 50, where this southwest flow will continue longer. With the warmer temperatures comes the higher fire weather threat. Breezy to occasionally gusty southwesterly winds in combination with the lower RHâs and warmer temperatures spells out the concern for limited to an elevated fire weather threat.
/issued 341 AM CST Tue Jan 19 2021/ A strong cold front has now moved through the region, having reached the Rio Grande as of 330AM CST. Cold advection and increasing cloud cover will keep temperatures well below normal this afternoon, with highs struggling to make it out of the 40s for most locations, and upper 30s possible across higher terrain, 20-30 degrees cooler than those temperatures experienced yesterday. A trough currently digging from Nevada southwestward across southern California has resulted in southwesterly flow aloft across Southeast New Mexico and West Texas, with this southwesterly flow expected to continue the next few days as the aforementioned trough develops into a cutoff low off the coast of Baja.
1", as most of the moisture will be limited to the lower atmosphere and the sfc boundary will have better influence to our south. A slightly cooler airmass will be ushered in through the morning hours, limiting high temperatures to near 50 degrees for the day.
Cold advection with the northwest flow will lead to cooler temperatures today, but mainly back closer to seasonal normals. Another dry but weak cold front looks to move south across KS on Thu, with compressional heating ahead of the front leading to another above normal temperature day on Thu as well.
Freezing drizzle has formed and moved east across central iowa this morning. A subtle boundary runs from northern Indiana across Illinois and then into the low near KEST. This system will bring some light snow and possibly some patchy freezing drizzle to the area. On the south edge of the precipitation some patchy freezing drizzle cannot be ruled out. 5 and 1 inch with the highest amounts in the highway 20 corridor. Discussion: WAA will be the story at the beginning of the period as warmer temps will start the day and period.
Moisture is fairly limited and confined to the low-levels and as a result, think total QPF of 0. Expect an overcast sky, with temperatures peaking in the low to mid 50s by this afternoon as warm, moist air continues to advect in from the south. A slightly cooler airmass will be ushered in through the morning hours, limiting high temperatures to near 50 degrees for the day.
540 AM EST Tue Jan 19 2021 High pressure builds southwest of the region today. A cold front moves across the region on Wednesday.
As upper level low over the srn Great Basin sinks southward off the California coast today, upward motion will gradually end from e-w, with snowfall lingering longest over the ern San Juans/La Garitas, where several more inches of accumulation is likely through the day.
440 AM MST Tue Jan 19 2021 Latest upper air analysis shows northwest flow over the Plains with a closed low centered over Nevada. The upper level flow then merges over the High Plains. At the surface a cold front has moved through the forecast area. Unlike the prior cold front passage, this one has not produced gusty winds as it moved through. Highs will be a few degrees cooler than yesterday due to less WAA from the northwest winds compared to yesterday. Overhead a short wave ridge will move through. Meanwhile a broad upper level short wave trough will move through the flow over the forecast area. Due to the dry environment in place, am not expecting any cloud cover with this trough.
High temperatures should be mainly in the teens except for the southwest portion of the forecast area where highs in the low 20s look likely. On Wednesday WAA will boost temperatures quite a bit the low level flow becomes southwesterly. Highs on Wednesday will rise well into the 30s with some low 40s possible downwind of the Buffalo Ridge. Coming off the warmest day of the week as the area is warm-sectored south of a 986mb low in western Ontario province, a dry cold front straddling the international border will slide southeast across the Upper Midwest Wednesday night.
504 AM CST Tue Jan 19 2021 Freezing drizzle has formed and moved east across central iowa this morning. A subtle boundary runs from northern Indiana across Illinois and then into the low near KEST. This system will bring some light snow and possibly some patchy freezing drizzle to the area. On the south edge of the precipitation some patchy freezing drizzle cannot be ruled out. 5 and 1 inch with the highest amounts in the highway 20 corridor. Discussion: WAA will be the story at the beginning of the period as warmer temps will start the day and period.
This area of fog is sandwiched between the aforementioned system and another trough that will move through today. Areas of dense fog, and freezing fog, have generally remained along and south of the Missouri River with visibilities dropping to a half mile or less. As the trough approaches, this area of fog will push southward with improving visibilities from northwest to southeast this morning. Not much else associated with the incoming trough besides a few flurries possible across northern Missouri, and northwest winds becoming breezy through the day. Temperatures won't be impacted much and we should still see afternoon highs generally in the low to mid 40s which is about 5 to 10 degrees above normal.
326 AM MST Tue Jan 19 2021 With a weak upper level ridge of high pressure building into the region from our West, expect mostly dry conditions across the region today.
Given the recent fresh snow, there could be some reduced visibilities in blowing snow along I-29 before temperatures rise above freezing. Expect rising temps overnight with some mild waa from rising heights aloft even with the cold front. The caa does return behind the front, though, as an upper trough passes to the northeast Wednesday evening.
314 PM EST Tue Jan 19 2021 A cool and dry air mass continues to prevail over the Keys this afternoon, with high temperatures topping out in the lower to mid 70s. Much of this winter has been characterized by cold frontal passages 1-3 times a week, leading to below-normal temperatures on average since the start of December.
Tonight and Wednesday A short wave trough moving across southwest Wisconsin could produce some snow showers or flurries over the southern third of the forecast area through early evening. Warm advection will produce middle and high clouds across the area Wednesday, with a chance of snow showers in the north in the afternoon as an upper trough approaches.
Areas of light snow and snow showers have developed downstream of the low, collocated with decent 925-850mb warm air advection and fgen response per the SPC Mesoanalysis. Time-height sections indicate an overlap between the low-level convergent/fgen driven omega max and a saturated dendritic growth layer, which support the aforementioned "high" SLRs/powdery snow. Some drifting snow is possible in rural locations north of I-80 where high temps only reach the low to mid 30s.
342 PM EST Tue Jan 19 2021 High pressure will prevail through Wednesday.
Increasing southwest winds combined with full solar insolation will result in warmer high temperatures on Wednesday, about 10 degrees above normal.
246 PM EST Tue Jan 19 2021 A cold front will move through the region tonight with limited moisture.
A cold front is located generally along the Interstate 40 corridor, moving slowly to the southeast. Latest surface analysis places an area of low pressure over Paducah, Kentucky with an attendant cold front strewn across SEMO and back into Little Rock, Arkansas. The aforementioned cold front will sag down through the Mid-South today. Expect low temperatures to drop to around freezing across the entire area.
Sfc cold front can be seen on Visible Satellite Imagery this morning along the southern border of our CWA from near LFK to just north of AEX and continues to slowly shift southward. North of this large rain shield, temperatures have really rebounded, especially where the low overcast has scattered out so for the update, need to adjust temps upwards across the mainly the Ouachitas of SE OK and SW AR.
258 PM CST Tue Jan 19 2021 An upper level trough passes through the area tonight into Wednesday morning turning winds southwest.
SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday Night): A weak mid level ridge of high pressure slowly builds into mid week as a strong Baja Low develops and deepens, keeping warmer southwesterly flow aloft through the short term. The big question would be how far east this low and associated front make it tomorrow. Temperatures west of the front Wednesday afternoon will struggle to reach the mid 60s to near 70, while temperatures in the warmer southerly flow ahead of the front may once again hit mid to upper 70s.
Dry conditions with mostly clear skies will prevail today due to a building high pressure ridge.
The center of the high pressure will move into the southern Plains tonight. The downslope flow will bring warmer air back into southwest Kansas during the day Wednesday. Temperatures will likely warm into the low to mid 60s over southwest Kansas with slightly cooler temperatures expected over central and south central Kansas. The breezy, warmer conditions will also bring elevated fire weather conditions to the area as humidity levels drop into the 20-30 percent range.
1016 AM MST Tue Jan 19 2021 Latest upper air analysis shows northwest flow over the Plains with a closed low centered over Nevada. The upper level flow then merges over the High Plains. At the surface a cold front has moved through the forecast area. Unlike the prior cold front passage, this one has not produced gusty winds as it moved through. Highs will be a few degrees cooler than yesterday due to less WAA from the northwest winds compared to yesterday. Overhead a short wave ridge will move through. Meanwhile a broad upper level short wave trough will move through the flow over the forecast area. Due to the dry environment in place, am not expecting any cloud cover with this trough.
Low temperatures should bottom out in the low to mid 20s.
222 PM CST Tue Jan 19 2021 Cold front has settled well south in TX, with a chilly and dry night expected as surface riding builds across the forecast area.
The highest rainfall amounts are expected south of the I-10 corridor, with QPF amounts of around half an inch to an inch likely across the southeastern half of the CWA.
The upper low quickly moves off the SoCal shoreline by mid day but the deformation zone will be slower to shut off and shear apart. Expect a mainly dry forecast by early Wednesday as more of a split flow pattern takes over the Intermountain West due to the upper low remaining off the Baja Coastline. By Wednesday evening the low off the coast of Baja will begin lifting northeastward.
Cloud cover will begin increasing this evening ahead of a wave of low pressure.