Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
A FEW STORMS HAVE FORMED OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SAN JUAN AND ABAJO MOUNTAINS. THE ELEVATED NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER CENTRAL ARIZONA WILL BE APPROACHING THE FOUR CORNERS LATE TONIGHT. THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW THE MOISTURE REACHING THE SRN BORDER. THE TROUGH WILL BE FORCED NORTHWARD ACROSS OUR CWA ON SUNDAY AS AN UPSTREAM LOW APPROACHES THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST.
300 PM EDT SAT MAY 2 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S AND LOWS TONIGHT WILL FALL BACK ONLY TO AROUND 50 DEGREES.
THE SPLIT FLOW PATTERN CONTINUES IN THE UPPER LEVELS WITH NEARLY ZONAL FLOW TO OUR NORTH AND A BAGGY TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWEST OFFSHORE.
AT THE SURFACE AND IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE LEVELS. A COMPLEX 1000-1004 LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES EAST OF CAPE HATTERAS IS TRAILING A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS THE KEYS AND THE FLORIDA STRAITS. A BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS SITUATED OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE ISLANDS HAVE REACHED THE LOWER 80S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S. OWING TO BUILDING IN HIGH PRESSURE.
111 PM EDT SAT MAY 2 2015 VARIABLE CLOUD COVER ALONG WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS THE DOMINANT FEATURE OVER THE NORTHEAST.
333 PM EDT SAT MAY 2 2015 HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA TONIGHT.
WESTERLIES REMAIN FAIRLY FLAT ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL STATES WHILE A WEAK/BROAD MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN CANADA. DEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL NEBRASKA ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS AND SHIFTING EAST FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE DISSIPATING BY 06Z.
Low temperatures will be warmer than the previous night, and at least slightly above normal for early May, due to the cloud cover and southerly surface winds.
Meanwhile a weak mid level ridge has propagated east and is centered over the TX big bend region with the mean westerlies remain north along the Canadian boarder. At the surface, high pressure over the southeast U. and low pressure in the northern plains has favored continued moisture advection with southerly winds bringing mid 50s dewpoints into the central plains. Therefore have maintained highs in the lower and mid 80s. Several opportunities for precipitation remain present through the forecast, with challenges on where and when the higher chances will be being the main challenge. The main trend in the nearer periods is the trend for a farther north settling of the cold front as it enters the area.
202 PM EDT SAT MAY 2 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY AND WARM WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE RIDGE PATTERN WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY AND WARMER THAN NORMAL THROUGH THE EVENING. THE DEEP MIXING PROFILE AND MODEST HEATING EXPECTATIONS HAVE LED TO A SLIGHTLY WARMER MAX TEMPERATURE THAN WHAT GUIDANCE HAS SUGGESTED.
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY ZONAL FLOW WILL BE OVER THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGHS IN THE NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE FLOW AND SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE MOVING UP FROM THE GREAT BASIN IN THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE FLOW.
312 PM EDT SAT MAY 2 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL BRING A SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE NORTHEAST AND TRANSPORT WARMER AIR INTO THE AREA.
BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND LOW PRESSURE FROM THE THE MANITOBA/ONTARIO BORDER INTO THE NORTHERN U. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND MOVES INTO THE AREA. AND WILL OVERSPREAD THE REST OF THE REGION DURING THE EVENING AS A COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE CONVERGENCE MOVES THROUGH.
153 PM EDT SAT MAY 2 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SLOWLY OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES HAVE AGAIN RISEN INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S. ANY APPRECIABLE ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO THE LOWER LEVELS.
DIURNAL HEATING COUPLED WITH SUFFICIENT LL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ML CAPES IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. ALLOWING ISOLD/SCT SHRA/TS WITH THE BEST CHANCES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE WESTERN BH. BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FA SUNDAY NIGHT AS DEEPER MOISTURE TRANSPORT ENSUES PER THE EJECTING SW CONUS UPPER LOW. COOLER CONDS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S NW HALF.
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WATER VAPOR SHOWS UPPER TROF WORKING THROUGH THE PAC NW INTO THE NRN ROCKIES EARLY THIS MRNG. AN ASSOCIATED LEE TROF IS PUSHING INTO ERN MT/ERN WY SUPPORTING SLY BL FLOW OVER THE CWFA. UPPER TROF WILL CONTINUE ITS EWD PROGRESSION. WITH SFC TROF ADVANCING THROUGH THE WRN DAKOTAS DURING THE AFTN. MOISTURE POOLING ALONG/AHEAD OF THIS SFC TROF WILL RESULT IN A CORRIDOR OF NEAR 1000J/KG MLCAPE EXTENDING NWD INTO CNTRL SD. TEMPS WILL BE VERY WARM TODAY GIVEN THERMAL RIDGE PASSING OVERHEAD. AND BEHIND THE SFC TROF DEEP MIXING AND VERY DRY AIR WILL RESULT IN MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES OF 10 TO 15 PERCENT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE WRN DAKOTAS WITH NOTICEABLY COOLER TEMPS AND BREEZY N/NE WINDS EXPECTED.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BE BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHERN STATES.
228 PM EDT SAT MAY 2 2015 HIGH PRESSURE THIS WEEKEND.
AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES TODAY WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
RH VALUES WILL BE LOW HOWEVER TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER AND ALL GUIDANCE KEEPING WIND SPEEDS BLO DANGEROUS LEVELS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH CLOSER TO AVERAGE AS COOLER AIRMASS MOVES IN. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN SUNDAY NIGHT. DRY AIRMASS AND COOLER COLUMN TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP TO AROUND 40 MOST AREAS.
Quiet weather is expected to continue through tonight and Sunday as a large area of high pressure over TN/KY and a relatively dry airmass dominate the region.
301 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015 TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE LOW TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA WITH THE AREA OF CU EXTENDING ALONG THE COLD FRONT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ALONG THE FRONT UNTIL THE LOW LEVEL JET KICKS IN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CWA TONIGHT. A COOLER NORTHERLY FLOW WILL THEN BE IN PLACE FOR SUNDAY.
315 PM CDT Sat May 2 2015 WV imagery shows the upper level ridge has moved east over the past 24 hours in response to an upper trough approaching the west coast. Sunday, the ridge will be east of the region, leaving West Texas and Southeast New Mexico under SW flow aloft.
521 PM EDT SAT MAY 2 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY AND WARM WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
104 PM EDT SAT MAY 2 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S AND LOWS TONIGHT WILL FALL BACK ONLY TO AROUND 50 DEGREES.
WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 90S AND DEW POINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S, HEAT INDICES COULD EXCEED 105 AGAIN TODAY OVER THE SOUTHEAST.
A LEE TROUGH SITUATED DOWN THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS WILL HELP FOCUS PRECIP AT THE SURFACE. STORMS MAY TRY TO ORGANIZE ALONG THE LEE TROUGH. THIS WILL BRING SOMEWHAT HIGHER CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS TUE NIGHT AS AN UPPER TROUGH SETS UP OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS SOME OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.
THIS CONVECTION WAS OCCURRING UNDER STREAMWISE VORTICITY IN THE SW FLOW ALOFT ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE FORECAST AREA. TODAY WILL BE DOMINATED BY SHORT WAVE RIDGING. THIS DOWNSLOPE FLOW COMBINED WITH THE SUBSIDENCE FROM THE RIDGE SHOULD SUPPRESS RAIN CHANCES. THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST WHICH WILL PUT THE AREA IN SOUTHWEST FLOW.
THE 9 AM TEMPERATURE AT CUT BANK WAS RUNNING A LITTLE WARMER THAN FORECAST SO RAISED THEIR HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR TODAY A FEW DEGREES.
MONSOON MOISTURE AND THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TO ALL OF NORTHERN ARIZONA TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS OVER THE SOUTHWEST STATES.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST WILL MAINTAIN A SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN EARLY THIS WEEK. ALTHOUGH THE FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL RATING IS LISTED AS MODERATE TODAY FOR GLEN CANYON NATIONAL RECREATION AREA AND NATURAL BRIDGES THE LIKELIHOOD OF FLASH FLOODING IS QUITE REMOTE.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES THIS MORNING AS A UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OFF THE WEST COAST. LONG WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES OVER THE NW STATES WITH SWLY FLOW ALOFT IN OUR CWA. SHORT WAVE TROUGHS CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE LONG WAVE TROUGH BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCAL HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS. AT 2 AM MDT SATELLITE SHOWED ONE OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGHS EXITING EASTERN IDAHO. A SEPARATE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS BAKER COUNTY THIS MORNING AND CENTRAL IDAHO THIS AFTERNOON. ON TUESDAY THE MAIN LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE INLAND WITH AXIS THROUGH CENTRAL WA AND CENTRAL OREGON.
BUT AT THIS TIME WE/LL ONLY MENTION SCT AS THE LOW-LEVELS CONTINUE TO DRY OUT. STUBBORN UPPER LEVEL RIDGING PERSISTS AND MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERSISTS AS WELL. WHICH WERE LARGELY IN THE LOW TO MID 90S.
951 AM EDT MON JUL 13 2015 A LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP ACROSS MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE TODAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL HAVE 105-106 DEGREES WITHIN THE HIGHWAY 83 TO HIGHWAY 183 CORRIDOR (INCLUDING LIBERAL, DODGE CITY, NESS CITY, HAYS). BY TUESDAY EVENING, ADDITIONAL STORMS FROM EASTERN COLORADO WILL MOVE INTO FAR WESTERN KANSAS IN THE LOW LEVEL POST-FRONTAL UPSLOPE FLOW.
H5 RIDGE OVERHEAD DEFLECTING MOISTURE WELL TO THE EAST. SO HIGHS TODAY MAY BE EVEN WARMER THAN FORECAST.
946 AM CDT MON JUL 13 2015 AN UPPER TROUGH CONTINUED TO PRODUCE RAIN OVER THE BORDER REGION WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING. FOCUS TURNS TO TUESDAY AS THE REGION BECOMES SITUATED BETWEEN A DEEPENING CLOSED LOW OVER HUDSON BAY. AND A BUILDING RIDGE IN THE DAKOTAS. THE RESULTING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BRING A COOLER AND DRIER NORTHEAST FLOW FROM CANADA. HAVE KEPT POPS TUESDAY FOR POSSIBLE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS COLD FRONT.
UPPER LEVEL HIGH SHOULD SET UP OVER THE CENTRAL GULF, BRINGING A NORTHEAST FLOW ALOFT. AT THE SFC, THERE WILL BE A WEAK TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA. HOWEVER, THERE IS SOME INDICATION THAT EITHER BACK BUILDING OR TRAINING MAY TAKE PLACE, WHICH COULD HAPPEN IF THE TROUGH LINES UP CORRECTLY WITH THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE. LAST NIGHTS SOUNDING SHOWS THE FREEZING LEVEL WAS HIGHER THAN THE MODEL SOUNDING HAD INDICATED. THE 500MB TEMPS LOOK TO BE JUST WARMER THAN -8C. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC HAS WEAKENED.
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO KEEP VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE WITH VERY LITTLE CHANCE FOR RAIN. /ISSUED 421 AM CDT MON JUL 13 2015/ A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL DRIFT EAST ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS WEEK.
1000 AM EDT MON JUL 13 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WHILE A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH FROM SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
A LOW LEVEL RIDGE ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WILL PRODUCE A WEST TO NORTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. A CONTINUOUS FEED OF MOIST AND HOT AIR AROUND THE NORTH SIDE OF THE RIDGE WILL PRODUCE HEAT INDICES IN THE 104 TO 108 RANGE ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. THE UPPER HIGH WILL BE CENTERED TO THE WEST OF ALABAMA DURING THE WEEK.
/ISSUED 344 AM CDT MON JUL 13 2015/ HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT IS IN CONTROL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS W/ THE 00Z KOUN SOUNDING SAMPLING -3 C AT 500MB WHICH IS NEAR SEASONAL EXTREMES.
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND NORTHWEST GULF. THE GFS IS HINTING AT SOME WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE PATTERN LATER IN THE WEEK.
1050 AM CDT MON JUL 13 2015 SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED AS SUBTROPICAL RIDGE REMAINS NEARLY OVERHEAD. BUT AT THIS TIME WE/LL ONLY MENTION SCT AS THE LOW-LEVELS CONTINUE TO DRY OUT. STUBBORN UPPER LEVEL RIDGING PERSISTS AND MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERSISTS AS WELL. WHICH WERE LARGELY IN THE LOW TO MID 90S.
/ISSUED 316 AM CDT MON JUL 13 2015/ EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGING HAS ESTABLISHED ITSELF ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE CENTER OF THE UPPER RIDGE IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS A BROAD TROUGH TRANSLATES INTO THE WESTERN STATES. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER LOCALLY PROVIDING ANOTHER HOT AND DRY DAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD PEAK A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. WITH MID-90S COMMON ON THE CAPROCK AND UPPER 90S TO ABOUT 101 DEGREES OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY CONTINUE TO BE CONTROLLED MOSTLY BY RIDGING EXTENDING NORTHEAST FROM A STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES. THE MAIN PLAYER IN OUR FORECAST TODAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE STRONG RIDGING IN PLACE AND A WEAK BOUNDARY WHICH STRETCHES FROM NEAR NASHVILLE TO EXTREME SW TENNESSEE.
A VERY ACTIVE AND STORMY PERIOD IS IN STORE FOR THE SHORT TERM AS A SERIES OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY REGIONS. SHARPENING UP A LONG WAVE TROUGH THAT WILL RESIDE ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. BETTER FORCING WILL ARRIVE AS A MORE STOUT SHORT WAVE TROUGH ROTATES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. SENDING A COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. MODELS SEEM TO BE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SWINGING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND EASTERN KY TUESDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER HIGH THAT IS CENTERED NEAR THE ARKLATEX REGION WILL SLIGHTLY RETROGRADE EAST BEHIND WAVE. MODELS THEN SUGGEST LATER IN THE PERIOD THE UPPER HIGH WILL MOVE BACK WEST.
PRIMARY THETA-E RIDGE LONG GONE BY THAT POINT BUT ENOUGH RESIDUAL MOISTURE TO TOUCH OFF SCT/NUM SHOWERS. QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT BUT THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS (0. WED/THURS STILL LOOKING DRY AS GREAT LAKES RECEIVE A HEALTHY DOSE OF AVA/SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF DEPARTING TROUGH AXIS. RETURN TO MORE ACTIVE WEATHER BY THE END OF THE WEEK AS A MUCH WARMER AND MOISTURE-LADEN AIRMASS FOLDS BACK INTO THE OHIO VALLEY COURTESY OF STALWART SOUTHERN PLAINS RIDGE.
1230 PM EDT MON JUL 13 2015 A LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP ACROSS MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE TODAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION.
CONTINUED HOT AND DRY WEATHER FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING REMAINS CENTERED OVER TEXAS.
CU FIELD IS ALSO DEVELOPING A LITTLE EARLIER TODAY ACROSS THE NORTH ALONG MOUNTAIN RIDGES. /61/ AN UPPER HIGH CENTERED TO THE WEST OF ALABAMA WILL PRODUCE A NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN. A LOW LEVEL RIDGE ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WILL PRODUCE A WEST TO NORTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. A CONTINUOUS FEED OF MOIST AND HOT AIR AROUND THE NORTH SIDE OF THE RIDGE WILL PRODUCE HEAT INDICES IN THE 104 TO 108 RANGE ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. THE UPPER HIGH WILL BE CENTERED TO THE WEST OF ALABAMA DURING THE WEEK.
857 AM CDT MON JUL 13 2015 COMPACT UPPER LOW NEAR THE SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA BORDER CONTINUES TO BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. WITH POSSIBLY A FEW WEAK THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AS INSTABILITY REMAINS ON THE LOW SIDE. COOL UPPER LOW WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED TO OCCASIONAL SHOWERS TODAY WITH A FEW AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS ACROSS THE NORTH.
1251 PM EDT MON JUL 13 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WHILE A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH FROM SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
COOL UPPER LOW WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED TO OCCASIONAL SHOWERS TODAY WITH A FEW AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS ACROSS THE NORTH.
/ISSUED 316 AM PDT MON JUL 13 2015/ A WEAK TROUGH AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE OVER CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN NEVADA WILL ALLOW FOR ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TUESDAY, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES REMAINING SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE. AS A SIDE NOTE RELATED TO MOISTURE, THE GFS HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY TOO DRY IN THE LOW LEVELS COMPARED TO THE MORE ACCURATE NAM. ACROSS NORTHERN LASSEN AND WASHOE COUNTIES, THE 00Z NAM INDICATED RETURNING INSTABILITY TUESDAY WITH SLIGHT COOLING ALOFT AS THE TROUGH AXIS OFF THE PACIFIC COAST MOVES INLAND.
/ISSUED 355 AM CDT MON JUL 13 2015/ TYPICAL SUMMER TIME PATTERN HAS SET UP OVER MUCH OF TEXAS WITH 00Z 500MB ANALYSIS SHOWING 596 DM RIDGE OVER W TX. RIDGE STRETCHES OVER MUCH OF THE S PLAINS TOWARDS THE MISS RIVER VALLEY AND NW GULF OF MEXICO. GFS/ECMWF SUGGEST THAT GOING INTO THE NEXT SUN/MON TIME FRAME THAT THE RIDGE MAY BEGIN TO RETROGRADE BACK OVER THE S ROCKIES ALLOWING FOR A WEAK NW FLOW PATTERN TO DEVELOP.
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS POSITIONED ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WITH A SYNOPTIC NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTER AROUND IT AND AN UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER TEXAS. TROF TO THE NORTH OF THE WATERS AND HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WELL TO THE SOUTH WILL CONTINUE A MAINLY SOUTHWEST OFFSHORE FLOW THIS WEEK WITH LOCAL SEA BREEZES ALONG THE COAST DURING THE AFTERNOON.
PATTERN TRANSITION DAY TODAY WITH LOWERING UPPER HEIGHTS AS UPPER TROUGH DIGS DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE AND PERSISTENT TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH JUST TO OUR EAST OVER THE BAHAMIAN CHAIN. WITH THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF A MASSIVE CONTINENTAL REGION OF HIGH PRESSURE REACHING INTO THE SUNSHINE STATE AND INTO OUR AREA. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS LOCATED ACROSS OUR AREA. WITH THE LOW AND MID LEVEL TRAJECTORY TRANSITIONING FROM NORTHEAST TO EAST THIS MORNING TO A CHAOTIC SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST.
/ISSUED 347 AM CDT MON JUL 13 2015/ In the middle of a summertime wx pattern with upper ridge centered over TX. Subsidence under the ridge will result in increasing temperatures and few clouds. The center will slowly drift east but the ridge will remain over the region through the end of the week. Most storms that are able to develop will be pushed around the edge of the ridge and out of the area.
THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH SHOULD SET UP OVER THE CENTRAL GULF, BRINGING A NORTHEAST FLOW ALOFT. AT THE SFC, THERE WILL BE A WEAK TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA. HOWEVER, THERE IS SOME INDICATION THAT EITHER BACK BUILDING OR TRAINING MAY TAKE PLACE, WHICH COULD HAPPEN IF THE TROUGH LINES UP CORRECTLY WITH THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE. LAST NIGHTS SOUNDING SHOWS THE FREEZING LEVEL WAS HIGHER THAN THE MODEL SOUNDING HAD INDICATED. THE 500MB TEMPS LOOK TO BE JUST WARMER THAN -8C. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC HAS WEAKENED.
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA CONTINUES TO BE ON THE FAR EASTERN EDGE OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND THE SOUTHWESTERN SIDE OF THE TROUGH ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD/WESTERN ATLANTIC.
WHEREAS TEMPS NEARER THE FOOTHILLS STILL IN THE LOWER/MID 70S. SUSPECT THESE AREAS WILL HAVE LITTLE PROBLEM CATCHING UP WITH OCCASIONAL BREAKING IN THE HIGH OVERCAST AND WITH LIGHT FLOW DOWNSLOPING OFF THE FOOTHILLS. ALL IN ALL EXPECT A NORMAL POP DAY TODAY WITH THE HIGH COUNTRY HAVING THE BEST OPPORTUNITY OF GETTING WET. A STRONG UPPER RIDGE WILL BE REMAINING OVER TEXAS THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH SOME UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
I THINK OUR BEST POTENTIAL TO SEE STORMS WILL BE THIS EVENING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE PUSHING INTO THE AREA FROM IOWA.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST JUST OFF THE WEST COAST FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK.
STILL A COUPLE OF SHOWERS OCCURRING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS NORTHEAST TENNESSEE PREPARING TO EXIT INTO NORTH CAROLINA.
FOCUS TURNS TO TUESDAY AS THE REGION BECOMES SITUATED BETWEEN A DEEPENING CLOSED LOW OVER HUDSON BAY. AND A BUILDING RIDGE IN THE DAKOTAS. THE RESULTING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BRING A COOLER AND DRIER NORTHEAST FLOW FROM CANADA. HAVE KEPT POPS TUESDAY FOR POSSIBLE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS COLD FRONT.
943 AM EDT MON JUL 13 2015 AN UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE EAST COAST. CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES PERSISTING AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S.
PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A DRY COLD FRONT PROGRESSES THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC.
344 AM CDT THU OCT 22 2015 A cold front pushing south through the forecast area appears to be reaching near I-70 based on radar velocity images. Slightly cooler air behind the front will limit high temps north of I-72 to the low to mid 70s, while areas along Hwy 50 and Lawrenceville are still able to climb to around 80.
202 AM EDT THU OCT 22 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS TO NY AND PA TODAY, THEN DRAG MUCH COOLER AIR THROUGH THE NORTHEAST FOR FRIDAY.
312 AM CDT THU OCT 22 2015 311 AM CDT LOW PRESSURE IS OVER THE ONTARIO/QUEBEC BORDER AND HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS. THE LOW/S COLD FRONT HAS ALMOST MADE IT THROUGH THE CWA AND LIES FROM SOUTHERN LAKE MI THROUGH PONTIAC IL. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE SOUTH AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD OVERHEAD. BUT AREAS SOUTH OF I-80 WILL GET INTO THE LOWER 70S. THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST OVERNIGHT WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.
429 AM CDT THU OCT 22 2015 311 AM CDT LOW PRESSURE IS OVER THE ONTARIO/QUEBEC BORDER AND HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS. THE LOW/S COLD FRONT HAS ALMOST MADE IT THROUGH THE CWA AND LIES FROM SOUTHERN LAKE MI THROUGH PONTIAC IL. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE SOUTH AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD OVERHEAD. BUT AREAS SOUTH OF I-80 WILL GET INTO THE LOWER 70S. THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST OVERNIGHT WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.
602 AM EDT THU OCT 22 2015 WEAK COLD FRONT SINKS SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND WASHES OUT ACROSS AROUND I-64 CORRIDOR.
AS LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR EXITS TO THE EAST AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW AND STRENGTHENS. LATE THURSDAY A MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS MOVES ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. CLEARING HAS BEEN SLOWLY SPREADING EASTWARD OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE LOW. TEMPS WILL FALL TO NEAR FREEZING IN LOCATIONS THAT CLEAR OUT. WINDS LIGHT/VARIABLE AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS.
UPPER LOW WILL MOVE NORTH OVER THE MOUNTAINS TODAY. BUT THE LOW CLOUDS COULD BE CLEARING IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE AREA BY THE END OF THE DAY. FOR TONIGHT THE LOW WOBBLES TOWARD THE NORTHEAST WITH FLOW SHIFTING TO NORTHWESTERLY BY MIDNIGHT. MODELS HAVE A WEAK UPPER TROUGH TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE CWA ON FRIDAY.
TODAY AND TONIGHT A CLOSED LOW OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL LIFT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST TODAY AND MOVE INTO THE NORTH AND CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT. AS THE PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. THICKNESS VALUES CONTINUE TO INCREASE UNDER THE RIDGE. SO EXPECT AFTERNOON TEMPS TO BE SLIGHTLY WARMER TODAY THAN YESTERDAY.
WITH A SFC TROF FORMING OVER THE W GULF ALONG THE TX/MEXICAN COAST. A MESSY WX SITUATION CONTINUES TO TAKE SHAPE AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE SW U.
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO HOLD CENTER COURT RESULTING IN CLEAR SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS. WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH OUT OF CANADA THURSDAY MORNING BUT NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH THIS EVENT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL ALSO MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA BETWEEN 15Z AND 00Z, WHICH WILL SHIFT BREEZY WINDS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA AND WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE TROF WILL MOVE OVER THE WEST COAST THURSDAY MORNING AND MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA DURING THE DAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL NOT PRODUCE ANY WEATHER ACROSS THE ZONES ALTHOUGH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL BRING SIGHTLY COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION THURSDAY.
420 AM EDT THU OCT 22 2015 SHOWER ARE POSSIBLE TODAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW LITTLE IMPACT FROM A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY. WITH THE HIGHER OF THE TWO MAINLY NORTH OF PIT. RAPID CLEARING IS EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER THE DESERT SW WILL SLOWLY MOVE E THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. THIS LOW WILL ADVECT MOISTURE FROM THE TROPICS AND GIVE OUR TAF SITES ACROSS EAST TEXAS A CHANCE OF RAIN BEGINNING AS EARLY AS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. DESPITE THE COOLER DEW POINTS.
WITH RIDGING EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL GULF COAST INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES. TEMPS DURING THE SHORT WILL BE IN THE LOWER 80S IN THE NORTHEAST TO UPPER 80S/NEAR 90 ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS.