Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
729 PM PDT Fri Oct 15 2021 Expect warmer conditions through Saturday, though we will see some showers across northern Washington and Idaho today.
/NEW/ /Tonight and Saturday/ The cold front is sweeping through the state and cooler and much drier air continues to advect into the region. Expect temps to bottom out in the low 40s in the NW zones to the mid 50s in the southeast. Highs near 70 or in the low 70s are expected areawide with sunny skies.
858 PM MDT Fri Oct 15 2021 Clear skies abound across Colorado, and with very light winds it will be another cold night with sub-freezing temperatures likely for most of the plains. Sunny day in store for Saturday, with warmer temperatures. Area webcams and most recent GOES-16 satellite imagery shows that the light snow showers have ended across all transportation/populated areas including all the high mountain passes. A 500 mb ridge builds slowly eastward towards Colorado, which reduces the flow aloft significantly and advects warm air from the west- northwest, with 700 mb temperatures warming further into the +4-5 degC range. Surface pressure gradients are weak in proximity to the 500 mb ridge, so winds will be weak just about everywhere.
With this in mind, have blended in much cooler guidance, lowering minimum temperatures a few degrees for all locales in the valley. With the upper trof pushing off to our east and a large ridge building over the western part of the country, expect quiet weather to become established tonight and continue through the weekend.
(This afternoon through Saturday night) A cold front has progressed through the region bringing cooler temperatures and a breezy north wind today. Clear skies and strong radiational cooling will aid in temperatures nearing freezing on the Caprock tomorrow morning. Freezing temperatures could impact local agriculture.
846 PM EDT Fri Oct 15 2021 Satellite imagery reveals quite a bit less cloud cover than this time yesterday as the airmass aloft has undergone further drying since then with the mid-level ridge extending right over FL. Surf temperatures remain in the lower 80s, so there will likely be some light drainage flow again setup with the cooler land vs water temp gradient. And with dewpoints a bit lower than last night, overnight lows should follow suit by being a couple of degrees cooler. This will put most in the upper 60s for lows, except some rural areas may be a couple degrees cooler, and barrier islands will likely remain in the lower 70s.
The cold front is here. Look for the low-level moisture and clouds to clear out by midday. Cooler air will continue to filter into the area and highs will only be in the upper 60s to mid 70s by the afternoon.
1053 PM CDT Fri Oct 15 2021 A strong, Canadian high pressure system is building into the region this afternoon and evening. This will pushing the cold front further to the east and bring in cooler and much drier air. Saturday and Sunday will be marked by a slow warming trend as the main high pressure system pushes the frontal system into the Ohio Valley and slowly turns off the CAA by late Saturday afternoon and evening.
A cold front currently located from central Mississippi into central Louisiana moves through the forecast area approximately between 06-12Z and ushers in much cooler and drier air. Highs on Saturday range from the lower 70s well inland to near 80 at the immediate coast. Lows Saturday night will be much cooler and range from the upper 40s to around 50 inland to the lower/mid 50s at the coast.
1048 PM MDT Fri Oct 15 2021 A pretty quiet forecast for the next few days as northwest flow shifts off to the east and upper-level ridging builds in for the weekend. Also, warmer temperatures will mix down with the wind; therefore, increased the hourly temperatures for the northern half of that zone. High pressure builds in for Saturday which cause the forecast area to warm up to more seasonal level while drying out.
1259 AM CDT Sat Oct 16 2021 06Z Aviation Discussion 10/16/21 High pressure and clear skies have moved into the area behind the cold front. 51 A cold front will move out of east Arkansas this evening with showers and a few thunderstorms. The clearing will be the result of high pressure and drier air entering the region. Tonight Through Sunday Showers with thunderstorms are moving across the state this afternoon along a cold front, with potential for severe storms (greater than 60 mph wind and hail greater than one inch).
316 AM CDT Sat Oct 16 2021 315 AM CDT Breezy and cool conditions today with slightly warmer conditions Sunday. The area sits on the backside of the upper-level trough that pushed through overnight with an area of high pressure starting to move in from the west. Winds behind the trough will be breezy out of the west-northwest with sustained winds 10 to 15 MPH and gusts upwards of 25 to 30 MPH. Additionally, the system has brought in colder temperatures aloft which will keep our afternoon highs today to around 60 degrees and overnight lows in the lower 40s and some upper 30s in spots. The area of high pressure moving in will keep skies mainly cloud-free throughout the weekend.
Strong cold front will continue to move through south central Missouri this afternoon. Potential then for spotter showers will end from west to east during the late afternoon into early evening as an upper level trough and associated lift shifts eastward and drier air advects southward. with cooler readings expected near the Plateau. While some cooler temps will be possible in sheltered areas. High pressure will build into the region over the weekend resulting in a cool day tomorrow and another cold night Saturday night. Temperatures will rebound to seasonable normals (highs in the low 70s, lows in the mid to upper 40s) Sunday into the midweek as an upper level ridge builds across the Central Plains.
A cold front currently advancing across central Mississippi moves through the forecast area overnight into early Saturday morning. A cold front currently located from central Mississippi into central Louisiana moves through the forecast area approximately between 06-12Z and ushers in much cooler and drier air. Highs on Saturday range from the lower 70s well inland to near 80 at the immediate coast. Lows Saturday night will be much cooler and range from the upper 40s to around 50 inland to the lower/mid 50s at the coast.
(the last time most locations fell into the middle 30s was May 5th) Some areas of central KS are seeing some patchy frost on elevated surfaces, as the main ridge axis passes over the region, so will keep the front advisory going across central KS until it expires at 13z. Looks like a nice weekend will be on tap, as the ridge axis slides south of the area, basically cutting off any kind of moisture return into KS.
1037 PM MDT Fri Oct 15 2021 WV imagery this aftn shows a trof axis shifting east of our area, with remnant boundary layer moisture contributing to a high-based cu/stratocu field from swrn SD thru much of ern SD and NE. Farther upstream, cirrus is evident from the Pac NW into the nrn Rockies atop a building ridge over the wrn CONUS. Very quiet tomorrow into Sunday as mid-to-upper ridge axis shifts ewd from near the West Coast to the High Plains. With rising heights, low-level thermal ridging accordingly builds from the Four Corners nwd into the nrn Rockies/Plains, with high confidence in above normal 850-mb temps by Sunday. As ridge axis shifts eastward toward the Midwest late Sunday and lee troughing develops along the ern side of the Rockies, S/SW return flow should strengthen across the area.
/issued 936 PM CDT Fri Oct 15 2021/ Cold front as of 02z has moved through all but far southeast LaSalle Parish in EC LA attm. Temperature drop off is a little behind the initial wind shift but eventually, the cooler, drier air will filter into our southeast third later this evening into the overnight hours.
/issued 715 PM EDT Fri Oct 15 2021/ Near record warmth continues as stacked ridging will finally move eastward later tonight into Saturday before a cold front moves through area Saturday Night into Sunday.
1047 PM MDT Fri Oct 15 2021 A ridge of high pressure will bring warm and dry conditions to the region this weekend.
Dry continental air has spread into South Central Texas in the wake of yesterday's cold front and will contribute to Fall like conditions across the region over the weekend. High temperatures today are forecast to be in the low 70s for most locations, with some upper 60s across portions of the Hill Country. We have went cooler than the NBM tonight given the very light winds and dry air that will be in place. The only thing that may offset this is if the high clouds end up being thicker. High temperatures on Sunday look to rebound back into the low 70s for most locations.
Light/vrb winds tonight under high pressure. (This afternoon through Saturday night) A cold front has progressed through the region bringing cooler temperatures and a breezy north wind today. Clear skies and strong radiational cooling will aid in temperatures nearing freezing on the Caprock tomorrow morning. Freezing temperatures could impact local agriculture.
From today through tonight, the longwave trough will move east of the area. This will allow an upper level ridge to build across the region. High temperatures today will range from the lower 50s to lower 60s tonight.
A cold front currently near the I-65 corridor will move quickly southeastward through the remainder of the forecast area through the early morning hours. However, lows tonight will be much cooler and range from 45 to 50 degrees inland to the lower/mid 50s at the coast.
Northwest flow will continue aloft as a ridge builds over the western Dakotas Sunday morning, and over our area in the afternoon. At the surface a couple of weak troughs will move through, mainly this morning and then again Sunday morning through the day as low pressure nears from the west. Temperatures will rise into the low to mid 60s today, which is near normal for this time of year. Expect highs Sunday to range from the upper 60s to the lower 70s, as lighter southerly winds take hold.
/Today through Sunday/ Northwest flow aloft in response to an upper-level ridge across Mexico into the western Gulf of Mexico to provide sufficient subsidence to support mostly clear skies across the region today and tonight. At the surface, a replacement airmass behind an departing frontal boundary to provide much cooler temperatures with highs today forecast to climb to the lower 70s. Upper-ridge to weaken with flow becoming more zonal on Sunday allowing for increasing mid to high level clouds areawide.
Our latest cold front is making its way through Middle TN and while the heaviest of the rains have ended, some light rain and lowered cigs will be likely through the rest of the night.
With this in mind, have blended in much cooler guidance, lowering minimum temperatures a few degrees for all locales in the valley. With the upper trof pushing off to our east and a large ridge building over the western part of the country, expect quiet weather to become established tonight and continue through the weekend. Expect a notable warming trend with temperatures reaching the low/mid 70s by Sunday which is about 5 to 10 degrees above normal. Ensemble guidance remains consistent in having a closed low move eastward from the PacNW and undercut the western ridge.
947 PM PDT Fri Oct 15 2021 Expect warmer conditions through Saturday, though we will see some showers across northern Washington and Idaho today.
246 AM CDT Sat Oct 16 2021 06Z data has high pressure across the Plains and into the Great Lakes region.
SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday): Cold front moving through the Lower RGV with a band of thunderstorms developing along and just behind the boundary. Fair and dry conditions with some patchy cloudiness Sunday with a dirty ridge in place.
The large trough has moved well to the east, leaving just a few clouds near the northern Colorado mountains at this hour. As previously mentioned, high pressure starts to build in overnight, leaving us drier with mostly clear skies. High pressure dominates Saturday and Saturday night leading to a slight warm up but otherwise quiet fall weather in the short term. Upper level ridge will be shifting east on Sunday with southwesterly flow setting up. This will bring in warmer conditions and help scour out any remaining valley inversions with temperatures quickly jumping back to the warm side of normal as we kick off the new work week.
Lows tonight should be slightly warmer than those of last night, but it will still be a cool autumn night in southern Oregon and northern California.
Northeast wind around 5-10mph will make it feel slightly cooler.
358 AM CDT Sat Oct 16 2021 A longwave trough currently over the Mississippi Valley early this morning will lift into the Mid-Atlantic by tomorrow morning. An associated surface cold front has cleared the CWA with a much drier and cooler airmass surging into the area.
141 AM CDT Sat Oct 16 2021 A long-awaited cold front is currently making its way across Middle Tennessee early this morning. Already, temperatures and dew points behind the surface boundary are taking a nosedive, and the atmosphere should dry out rapidly as high pressure quickly builds into Middle Tennessee behind the departing cold front. High pressure will dominate the local weather for the next several days as temperatures sink below normal for the first time in October.
344 AM EDT Sat Oct 16 2021 Cooler and blustery conditions can be expected today as rain continues to depart the region this morning.
Light/vrb winds tonight under high pressure. Considering this being the first day since spring where temps will reach near freezing, have elected to continue the Freeze Warning for the remote areas of northern Lea where temps should dip to 31/32. High pressure will move to the east over the course of the forecast period with return flow forecast by this afternoon through Sunday. This will allow for temperatures to be a bit warmer over the region both Sunday AM/PM, although still below-normal climo wise. Ridging returns as well, leading to a warming trend beyond the weekend.
High pressure building into the region today will cause stable conditions, sunny skies, and high temperatures around 10-15 degrees about normal. Cloud cover will increase through the day as a trough moves onto the west coast.
/Issued 915 PM CDT Fri Oct 15 2021/ High pressure will continue to build into the Texas panhandle overnight with light northwest winds across eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas.
After another morning with temperatures near or below freezing across many areas, Saturday will give way to sunny skies and light winds.
A ridge of high pressure will bring warm and dry conditions to the region this weekend.
An upper level ridge will begin to work in from the west bringing a warming trend to the area with highs in the mid to upper 60s. Tonight will be warmer than this morning, but we could still see some patchy frost across our far northwestern zones. An upper level ridge will be working east across the forecast area. A cut off upper low will track out of the Rockies and across the central plains.
For tonight, southerly winds will commence and allow temperatures to be a few degrees warmer than this morning, especially across western portions of Oklahoma.
220 AM CDT Sat Oct 16 2021 A line of showers continues to move eastward across portions of northwest Alabama, ahead of a cold front. High pressure will continue to slide eastward tonight, as upper ridging builds into the Plains. Thus, expect rather chilly overnight lows as our temps fall into the lower to mid 40s. The short term period will be dominated by high pressure at the surface and a ridge building in from the west.
258 AM CDT Sat Oct 16 2021 Early this morning an amplified upper level trough was located across the western Great Lakes, south-southwest across the lower MS River Valley. Light westerly winds were observed across the CWA, and may prevent temperatures from dropping down into the lower to mid 30s. Areas where the PBL decouples, causing winds to become calm, such as river valleys may see the lowest minimum temperatures near sunrise, which may be fall down to 33 to 35 degrees. Cross-over temperatures this afternoon across the CWA were in the lower to mid 20s, so I'm not expecting a heavy frost due to the drier low-levels of the atmosphere. The upper level trough will shift east across the eastern US. Lows tonight will be warmer with upper 30s to mid 40s expected.
350 AM CDT Sat Oct 16 2021 An upper level trough extends from eastern WI south-southwest into AR.
One of the typical cold spots in our CWA, in Muleshoe, has already dropped below freezing to 31 as of 3AM.
A dry high pressure center will prevail today across the Central and Southern Plains. For tonight, lee troughing will eventually resume. Due to these winds, am expecting warmer lows heading into Sunday morning. Sunday will feature a deepening lee trough. With the weak WAA in place, warmer highs in the mid 70s should prevail. As such, there is a slightly higher fire danger Sunday with the warmer highs and breezy winds.
1031 PM CDT Fri Oct 15 2021 An upper-level trough is making its way across the central United States today resulting in broad southwesterly flow aloft. Temperatures are expected to cool into the low 30s in central Wisconsin to the upper 30s/low 40s along the Mississippi River. Winds aloft transition to northwesterly as we round the base of the upper-level trough in the afternoon. With clear skies overnight, temperatures by early Sunday morning are expected to dip into the upper 30s with the typically cooler locations near central Wisconsin potentially dipping to near freezing. Frost is possible for these cooler locations around the cranberry bog region. High pressure and ridging builds in from the west and brings a return of warmer air.
Elsewhere, upper ridging and downslope flow will help most areas of south-central Montana climb into the mid 60s. Vertz Still very good agreement in a n upper low swinging across Wyoming and into the northern plains for the beginning of the work week. If it does occur, expect a rain/snow mix in the foothills, and mostly rain elsewhere in the lower elevations (including Billings).
Dry breezy north-northeasterly winds will persist through mid- afternoon before diminishing through tonight as high pressure builds in and centers over South Texas. Temperatures will be much cooler today with highs only in the mid 70s! PWATs are expected to drop below 0. Due to recent rainfall, cooler temps, and winds decreasing through the afternoon, don't expect elevated fire weather conditions at this time. Tonight, efficient radiational cooling with dry air (dewpoints in the 40s), calm winds, and mostly clear skies will cause lows to dip down into the low 50s inland to around 60 along the coast. Sunday will be similar to today, with high pressure, northerly winds, and partly cloudy skies in place, highs will range from the mid to upper 70s.
Latest obs show temps in northern county have risen above freezing, and the warning has been allowed to expire as scheduled. Considering this being the first day since spring where temps will reach near freezing, have elected to continue the Freeze Warning for the remote areas of northern Lea where temps should dip to 31/32. High pressure will move to the east over the course of the forecast period with return flow forecast by this afternoon through Sunday. This will allow for temperatures to be a bit warmer over the region both Sunday AM/PM, although still below-normal climo wise. Ridging returns as well, leading to a warming trend beyond the weekend.
513 AM MDT Sat Oct 16 2021 Little to discuss in the near term as a deepening trough slowly approaches the Pacific Northwest today. This will amplify a ridge of high pressure over the area resulting in sunny skies and milder temperatures. However, with regard to high temperatures in the lower valleys today, have some concern that low level inversions may limit warming. The ridge is driven eastward over the Plains on Sunday as the trough of low pressure reaches the West Coast. During the afternoon high clouds will begin to overspread the region as the West Coast trough swings inland. The trough closes off over the Great Basin Sunday night with modest levels of mid-level moisture arriving over southwest Colorado after midnight.
At the surface, a broad anticyclone stretches from the Great Basin and central Rockies east into the central and southern Plains. The cold front which moved thru yesterday stretched from northern NY south and west into the western Gulf.
604 AM CDT Sat Oct 16 2021 Updated for 12Z aviation discussion 12Z TAF discussion: Low stratus in the wake of a cold frontal passage will continue to linger across the I-59 corridor at HBG/PIB through 14z before clearing out. Gusty northerly winds through the day will become light to calm tonight as high pressure extends into the region. /TW/ A longwave trough currently over the Mississippi Valley early this morning will lift into the Mid-Atlantic by tomorrow morning. An associated surface cold front has cleared the CWA with a much drier and cooler airmass surging into the area.
Overall wind speeds are expected to be fairly light today with upper-level ridging building into the region. Ample sunshine coupled with deep subsidence should support daytime highs in the lower to mid 60s along and east of I- 25 with 50s to the west. The upper-level ridge axis moves overhead on Sunday, contributing to another day of warm & dry conditions w/ daytime highs possibly even rising into lower 70s.
629 AM CDT Sat Oct 16 2021 315 AM CDT Breezy and cool conditions today with slightly warmer conditions Sunday. The area sits on the backside of the upper-level trough that pushed through overnight with an area of high pressure starting to move in from the west. Winds behind the trough will be breezy out of the west-northwest with sustained winds 10 to 15 MPH and gusts upwards of 25 to 30 MPH. Additionally, the system has brought in colder temperatures aloft which will keep our afternoon highs today to around 60 degrees and overnight lows in the lower 40s and some upper 30s in spots. The area of high pressure moving in will keep skies mainly cloud-free throughout the weekend.
818 AM MDT Sat Oct 16 2021 Temperatures have climbed above the freezing mark across the far eastern plains of NM, thus have opted to cancel the Freeze Warning a couple hours early.
High pressure over the region will yield mostly clear skies and quite seasonable temperatures this weekend though periodically breezy conditions will be common through south-central Arizona.
Heights start to rise as an upper ridge builds from the Rockies into the High Plains today. Thus expect a warmer day with lighter winds and abundant sunshine. Over the weekend, strong ridging aloft at the 90th percentile of NAEFS guidance builds through the Northern and Central Plains.
Considering this being the first day since spring where temps will reach near freezing, have elected to continue the Freeze Warning for the remote areas of northern Lea where temps should dip to 31/32. High pressure will move to the east over the course of the forecast period with return flow forecast by this afternoon through Sunday. This will allow for temperatures to be a bit warmer over the region both Sunday AM/PM, although still below-normal climo wise. Ridging returns as well, leading to a warming trend beyond the weekend.
06Z data has high pressure across the Plains and into the Great Lakes region.