Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Temperatures are currently ranging in the 30s to mid 40s as a cold front has pushed thru the region. lows overnight tonight will range in the lower to mid 20s giving way to daytime highs in the 40s.
545 AM CDT Sun Apr 1 2018 Cold front has dropped to the southeast of the forecast area this morning. Northwest winds dominate the region with cooler air filtering in behind the front. High pressure is building into the Midwest from the Northern Plains.
Will allow the highlight to continue as those bands could persist early this morning then gradually improve by the time the highlight expires. A warm westerly flow will prevail Monday ahead of an upper level trough over the Northern Rockies. A surface lee trough will form over eastern Colorado. The lowest relative humidities will be found over Lincoln county where a Fire Weather Watch is effect. A cold front will race south across eastern Colorado Monday evening.
435 AM EDT Sun Apr 1 2018 High pressure will bring a cool Easter Sunday to the region.
230 AM MDT Sun Apr 1 2018 A broad trough covers the CONUS, with northwest flow over the northern plains. At the surface, high pressure rests over SD. Weak ridging will develop over the region today, as an upper low pushes into the Pacific Northwest. Pac NW upper low will become an open wave Monday as it crosses the northern Rockies.
Windy/showery weather will remain the primary focus for the remainder of the afternoon into this evening as dynamic/compact low pressure system tracks through the Northern Great Lakes and forces a trailing cold front through the area. Showers, likely a bit more intense along the actual cold front 21-01z, will have the potential to mix down brief advisory level gusts (40-45 mph) through the early evening. Cold/dry elsewhere Sunday night into Monday as high pressure briefly builds in.
600 AM CDT Sun Apr 1 2018 Today will be mostly sunny, but quite chilly as high pressure drifts across the region.
Central Marshall county should remain a bit warmer though due to effects of Lake Guntersville (around 45 degrees). Mainly adjusted lows down in southeastern counties into the lower to mid 40s. Those with less cloud cover will reach the lower 70s. Precip chances continue to brush the TN/AL line on Monday as the front lifts back north as a warm front, leaving Monday night precip free. Temps could reach the low to mid 70s Monday afternoon with mild overnight lows around 60 degrees.
Low temperatures in the low 20s far east and south with mid 20s to low 30s for parts of far eastern Colorado. forecast concerns are location of warm front/dry line during the day which will impact temperature, humidity, wind strength forecast all of which impact where critical fire weather conditions will be/may be met during the day. Highest confidence for warmest temperatures remains along and west of the CO/KS border where 850mb temperatures in the low to mid 70s support highs into the 80s.
A vigorous low pressure system will bring rain and snow to the Idaho Panhandle and the Cascades Sunday into Monday.
Expect cooler temps across northern Nevada for Monday with temperatures quickly recovering for midweek.
A 1040mb high pressure over southeast Alberta will move across eastern Montana tonight and into southern North Dakota Sunday. Otherwise, expect mostly sunny conditions with highs in the lower 20s north to lower 30s southwest. The main message of the SPS is for the potential of between 2 and 5 inches south of Highway 2, with the highest amounts at this time favoring locations along and south of I-94.
Yesterdays cold front has moved well south of the area and all but a few light showers have moved out of the area as well. Most areas will initially see precipitation in the form of a cold rain, however where temperatures cool enough, mainly on the Ozark Plateau this afternoon, some freezing rain may occur. As the precipitation spreads over the region tonight and temperatures fall, the precipitation will slowly change over to light freezing rain for most of the area.
Showers noted over portions of the Treasure Valley and into the Western Magic Valley are associated with the passage of a weak cold front. Weather changes expected on Monday with the arrival of a stronger cold front. Cooler temperatures on Monday will bring values 5 to 10 degrees below normal.
Southerly flow return has begun impacting overnight low temperatures this morning from southwest Louisiana into extending into southeast Texas where lows were in the low to mid 60s. but low clouds were poised just offshore and will likely see a few more low clouds this morning before daytime mixing the lower clouds out. Southerly flow is expected to slowly increase this afternoon across the area with a north Texas cold front eventually stalling today and moving back to the north as a warm front Monday.
441 AM EDT Sun Apr 1 2018 Early this morning a cold front extended from southern OH southwest to West TN. This area of low pressure will eject northeast into the Great Lakes region, with ample support from the various deterministic and ensemble guidance data.
A secondary surge of a cold front will likely bring lower ceilings late tonight. The lowest ceilings are expected to be around sunrise. /Issued 412 PM CDT Sat Mar 31 2018/ Cold front moved through the Panhandles by late this morning and early this afternoon. As a result, the GFS keeping the western and central portions of the forecast area much warmer in the 60s with the eastern portions not getting out of the 40s all day Sunday. Some recovery may be possible Sunday afternoon in the west, however feel the northeast half or two- thirds will remain in the much cooler air through most of the day. Sunday has the potential for big temperature bust across the western and central portions of the Panhandles depending on how long the cooler air hangs on through Sunday afternoon.
107 AM EDT Sun Apr 1 2018 A ridge of high pressure will move through the area from the west tonight then slide offshore Sunday.
Ridge axis of high pressure over the west Atlantic shifts southward today into north Florida, but a predominant low level southeast flow prevails across east central Florida. Lows overnight will range from the low to mid 70s.
Today will be somewhat similar to yesterday as high pressure is over the southern Appalachians. Most of the thunderstorms that develop this afternoon should be out of the region tonight leaving a dry and warm night with lows Wednesday morning in the low to mid 70s.
A series of upper impulses will move around the edge of an upper ridge. These will not only break down the ridge but also interact with a hot and humid atmosphere to bring chances for showers and thunderstorms through the work week. A cold front will bring more chances for rain for the weekend.
Synoptically, there is a strong high pressure center sitting near the the GA/SC coastline. In addition, a 700 mb trough axis is located across our eastern counties. Otherwise, highs today will be in the lower to upper 90s under partly cloudy skies this afternoon. Lows tonight will bottom out in the lower to middle 70s. The previously mentioned 700 mb trough axis will no longer be over the CWA and therefore, should see a lesser coverage of showers and storms.
/issued 305 AM CDT Tue Jun 13 2017/ Upper low slowly spinning eastward across the northern Rockies will influence our weather today as increasing upper winds and shear associated with increasing SW flow south of this low over West Texas combine with moderate to strong instability and dry line convergence to produce scattered thunderstorms today after 21z.
Expect cooler temperatures for today and Wednesday, but it will remain dry.
1158 AM EDT Tue Jun 13 2017 High pressure persists near Bermuda into Wednesday.
526 AM MDT Tue Jun 13 2017 The very strong upper low will track to the northeast across the northern Rockies and High Plains today. Much cooler and drier conditions will occur for our area in the wake of the cold front that blasted east last evening. Isolated t-storms are possible mainly over the western half of the CWA this afternoon as cooler air moves overhead, but chances are overall low. The upper low will continue to wrap up to the north on Wednesday although fast zonal flow will remain overhead.
1024 AM EDT Tue Jun 13 2017 Atlantic high pressure will extend across the area through mid week. An inland trough will develop late in the week as the high shifts further offshore. This Afternoon: A weak coastal trough of low pressure well offshore is responsible for scattered showers and thunderstorms beyond 40 nm offshore. Still expect this trough to gradually dissipate and move northward through the day. The area will remain within a weak surface pressure pattern, with a broad axis of high pressure across the region. Ridge extending westward from Atlantic high pressure will shift south of the area through the second half of the week under very weak flow aloft.
Storm has moved out; the upper low was in southern Montana at 12Z.
Temperatures across the region are in the mid to upper 70s with dewpoints in the low to mid 70s. A persistent weakness in the ridging aloft has been noted across far east Texas into Louisiana.
A warming trend will begin today and accelerate through late week as high pressure builds over the southwestern portion of the country.
1029 AM MDT Tue Jun 13 2017 Satellite imagery shows slowly evolving upper low over central MT, close to Harlowton, with a large area of wrap around precipitation in central MT. Upper low is situated over Yellowstone Park and progged by models to meander northeast to the Dakotas by tonight. It appears models are in good agreement that the precipitation will wind down by Wednesday morning, with some clearing likely by Wednesday afternoon as 500 MB heights increase behind the upper low. Warmer temperatures should arrive Wednesday, but with highs still a bit below normal.
Showers and thunderstorms are also expected to develop along a cold front moving through New York into Pennsylvania, but so far nothing has developed locally along the front, with all rain well northeast of the region.
Early this morning, the WV satellite imagery showed the closed-upper level trough over Northern Rockies, approaching western Dakotas. By 18Z, the center of the low is expected to be across north-central South Dakota, with the warm front somewhere near the SD/ND state boundary. This surface wind flow will contribute to convection initiation along the boundary as it lifts north, advecting warmer air, rich-low level moisture, and surface dewpoints into the upper 60s. Soundings prog a break in the cap by early this afternoon as the cold front moves eastward across the CWA. Greater tornado risk will remain near the warm front, which will reside north of the CWA. Much quieter pattern settling in Wednesday, as upper low lifts northeast into Canada and drier low level air spreads into the area behind the departing cool front.
/Issued 354 AM CDT Tue Jun 13 2017/ Latest surface analysis shows dryline has retreated west across the high Plains, with main synoptic boundary extending across NE/IA.
With some weak troughing becoming more pronounced across the SE U. late Wed night into Thu morning, believe deamplification of upper level ridging dynamics as closed upper level low progresses from nrn Rockies this morning moves into south cntrl Canada by 12Z Fri will also play a role in the mid states wx. Overnight lows tonight, Wed night, and Thu night will be mild in the lower 70s, mid to upper 60s Cumberland Plateau Region.
The upper low will move slowly northeast into central Montana becoming negatively tilted this afternoon, then slowly moving northeast through eastern MT and western ND tonight. The James Valley this afternoon remains in the best position for my area (western and central North Dakota) for the greatest tornadic threat where models continue to place favorable low level shear, storm relative helicity values and low LCL heights along a northward moving warm front and near the triple point.
Temperatures to range from lows in the lower 70s and highs around 90.
/Issued 305 AM CDT Tue Jun 13 2017/ The upper level winds will increase over the panhandles today as a vigorous upper level trough moves out of the northern Rockies onto the northern high plains. The panhandles will be on the southern edge of this trough as it swings out onto the high plains.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 90 70 90 71 / 30 20 50 20 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 88 70 87 69 / 30 30 50 30 Oak Ridge, TN 89 70 88 70 / 40 30 50 30 Tri Cities Airport, TN 86 66 84 66 / 40 40 50 30.
Seasonably Hot and Humid with Chance for Storms Next Few Seasonable summer time conditions will again prevail across the region today as an upper level ridge axis transitions to the east. A weakening front will approach from the northwest as an upper level trough lifts northeast across the northern tier of the U.
With day time heating steep lapse rates to develop and then upper cyclone sends another round of energy into the northern plains with thunderstorms developing along the frontal boundary. An upper low will lift into southern Saskatchewan and Manitoba Canada on Wednesday, as showers and thunderstorms extend from the western Great Lakes southward through the Mississippi Valley.
Upper low to the west slowly begins to lift northeast over the course of Tuesday night into Wednesday/Wednesday night.
1055 AM EDT Tue Jun 13 2017 So far ridging is just holding over our forecast area, but storms have formed just north of Madison, IN, headed towards Cincinnati.
This system will lift northward as a warm front on Wednesday.
955 AM EDT Tue Jun 13 2017 The synoptic setup for today remains very similar to yesterday, with abundant column moisture in place and the Atlantic ridge axis centered to our north. High pressure will remain over the region through the end of the week, with generally east to southeast winds remaining in place.
822 AM EDT Tue Jun 13 2017 A cold front will move south across the region reaching southern New Hampshire by late in the day.
Pattern remains slowly progressive through tonight, with apex of mid level ridge strengthening and moving directly overhead.
Upper level low pressure continues to eject to the NE, with residual light showers exiting well to the east of Wallowa County. Low amplitude ridging will prevail today with clouds decreasing across the eastern mountains, and mostly clear skies for most other areas. Below normal temperatures will prevail today, with highs in the upper 60s to mid 70s for the lower elevations and 50s to lower 60s for the mountains.
Storms will clear out gradually from west to east as the cold front moves in overnight.
/issued 336 AM CDT Tue Jun 13 2017/ Fairly uniform flow aloft across the southeastern US this morning with the only real upper level feature being a very weak trough near the Florida panhandle. By Wednesday, weak upper ridging begins to build over the area as the upper flow turns zonal across much of the CONUS.
Lows tonight are forecast to run in the low to mid 70s.
An 850mb low was evident around WY, with a warm front extending across northern NE through northern IA and toward a secondary low in northwest WI. Up to 17C dewpoints had pooled in eastern NE/northern MO/western IA ahead of the low and near the front, with 35-40kt low- level jet through KS-NE. Despite trough passage, winds will remain more westerly than anything, and mixing will still be pretty good.
Temperatures across the island chain are in the low to mid 80s with dew points in the upper 70s.
However, just to our south, another cluster of storms was developing in an area of deep moisture convergence and elevated CAPE (500-1000 j/kg) near an 850 mb warm front. The 850 mb warm front and increasing elevated instability is expected to slowly lift north today, so will gradually expand slight chance/chance pops northward, despite a building upper level ridge. With mostly cloudy skies and east winds, temperatures should only reach the middle 70s north to the lower 80s south. On Wednesday, the surface warm front is expected to make a surge toward the region, with an accompanying increasing in low-level moisture. Highs should be in the middle to upper 70s north to the lower to middle 80s south.
721 AM EDT Tue Jun 13 2017 Bermuda high pressure will remain anchored off the coast through midweek.
1259 PM EDT Tue Jun 13 2017 Bermuda high pressure will remain anchored off the coast through midweek.
755 AM EDT Tue Jun 13 2017 Atlantic high pressure will extend across the area through mid week. An inland trough will develop late in the week as the high shifts further offshore. Today: The weak coastal trough offshore is forecast to dissipate while a weak mid level vort drifts northeast along the SC coast. Ridge extending westward from Atlantic high pressure will shift south of the area through the second half of the week under very weak flow aloft.
930 AM EDT Tue Jun 13 2017 Bermuda high pressure will remain anchored off the coast through midweek.
this dry slot should fill in later today with scattered showers/thunderstorms as the upper level low moves northward. A low- to midlevel low pressure center will track from SW MT this morning to southern SK by 12/Wed. This vigorous low pressure system will continue to tap into abundant Gulf of Mexico moisture, resulting in unusually-high PWAT values, especially over North-Central MT and near the Continental Divide. Behind the departing low, high pressure will build eastward from the Pac NW and should permit partial clearing of skies.
85h temps e of the dryline will likely be close to previous 24hrs, slightly cooler, possible a degree or 2 warmer to the w. All the meanwhile the anticyclone that is and will be building across nrn MX is the beginnings of the semi-permanent subtropical ridge that signals the onset of the summer mid level flow regime. Said ridge will likely expand n-nw thru the weekend slowly resulting in a change in the mid level wind direction, nw Thur-Fri to ne-e Sun-Tue.
Forecast for the afternoon still looks good with a convection developing over the higher terrain features with some drift into the Great Valley. Weak ripples of energy continue to drop southeast out of the Upper Ohio Valley around the top of the upper ridge today. Will stay the course on max temps which are on track to top out in a range from the mid 80s to the lower 90s.
Chances for isolated to scattered SHRA/TSRA will then increase for the late morning hrs into much of the afternoon hrs as weak upper level low pressure/upper wave continues to meander around the state. with maybe a deg or two warmer for some areas.
However the low clouds just north of Gold beach are moving south and will move into Gold beach in the next hour or two.
Highs will be in the mid to upper 90s, with lows tonight in the lower 70s.
Widespread cloud cover and convection through the day will inhibit the diurnal curve, with highs likely only rebounding into the lower to mid 80s once again today.
East to southeast winds still fairly strong in advance of the low pressure so have pushed the end time for the Lake Wind Advisory to 9 am.
Hot and humid summer-like conditions to continue today and Wednesday with a ridge of high pressure stretching from the Great Lakes region southwest into the lower OH/MS Valley regions and TX. Afternoon temps rising back up into the lower 90s both days will combine with sfc dew points from near 70 to the lower 70s to create heat index values in the upper 90s in many locations.
940 AM MDT Tue Jun 13 2017 Satellite imagery shows slowly evolving upper low over central MT, close to Harlowton, with a large area of wrap around precipitation in central MT. Upper low is situated over Yellowstone Park and progged by models to meander northeast to the Dakotas by tonight. It appears models are in good agreement that the precipitation will wind down by Wednesday morning, with some clearing likely by Wednesday afternoon as 500 MB heights increase behind the upper low. Warmer temperatures should arrive Wednesday, but with highs still a bit below normal.
344 AM CDT Fri Mar 30 2018 This morning's surface analysis indicates a secondary cold front is moving southward through the region in advance of an area of high pressure. The front is expected to move into the Gulf by mid-morning and allow for high pressure to build into the region.
With warm front lifting into North Dakota this afternoon, gusty west-southwest winds will develop across much of the area. Strong cold front drops through Friday evening, with a period of northwest winds gusting 40-45 mph.
High pressure aloft along the west coast will begin to weaken into the weekend. This weakening of the high pressure will bring a mild westerly flow aloft to the Great Basin this weekend.
548 AM EDT Fri Mar 30 2018 A cold front will move east of the area this morning. A weak ridge of high pressure with cooler and drier conditions will build in for the start of the weekend.
A few showers may develop early Saturday, but the better rain chances will hold off until very late in the day, or more likely Saturday evening, when a cold front moves south across the area.
1220 AM CDT Fri Mar 30 2018 Updated for 06Z aviation discussion 06Z TAF discussion: The main cold front following yesterday's big weather maker is just finally pushing through the forecast area with little fanfair, mainly just a wind shift to the northwest. /BB/ Evening surface analysis had a 1008mb low over Kentucky with a trailing cold front across northeast Mississippi and across our northeast Louisiana parishes. This reinforcing cold front will continue south through the night and bring a chance of rain mainly to the eastern half of our CWA. There was clearing noted on satellite imagery in the wake of the cold front but some stratocu looks to move back in from the northwest later tonight. Morning lows will be cooler but still warmer than normal.
Given that the lower/mid atmosphere is also drying, we do not expect any showers today. A cold front is progged to back its way into the northeast plains Saturday morning, with some light showers developing as it pushes its way into the northern Front Range foothills and Cheyenne Ridge by 18z. Moisture will be in increasing in the mountains as well with orographic snow showers developing mainly along the higher west facing slopes Saturday afternoon.
242 AM CDT Fri Mar 30 2018 High pressure will move across the region today and give the Ozarks a respite from the wet and dreary pattern. The high pressure will not linger as it moves through the area tonight as a cold front moves towards the area. As the cold front moves through the area, lingering showers will continue into the evening.
/BB/ Today and tonight: The actual surface cold front that is the last remnant of the system that brought all the active weather to the region in the past few days is finally getting ready to clear south of the region currently. Temperatures will be a little cooler than average today with north to northwest breezes, but I suppose nobody will be complaining about highs ranging from the mid 60s to lower 70s. North winds will diminish quite a bit tonight as the ridge of high pressure at the surface passes over the Lower MS Valley and relaxes the pressure gradient quite a bit.
Temperatures are expected to end up generally in the mid 40s to around 50, a few degrees cooler than previous forecast. Castro 300 AM CDT A period of rain showers will occur late tonight into Saturday ahead of a strong cold front. The main concern is strong and possibly near advisory criteria winds on Saturday, associated with a compact and deepening fast moving low pressure passing to our north that will drag the strong cold front across the area. Given that the peak magnitude LLJ being closest to ground level will happen while cloud cover and likely some precip is also occurring, confidence is not the highest on actually attaining advisory criteria except in an isolated/sporadic fashion perhaps.
140 AM CDT Fri Mar 30 2018 The cold front is finally sweeping through Middle Tennessee early this morning. Look for skies to gradually clear out this afternoon and evening as high pressure works its way into the region.