Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
920 AM EDT Wed Mar 21 2018 An enhanced pressure gradient will exist Today between low pressure to the Northeast, and high pressure building to the West.
Strong high pressure aloft centered over the western Great Basin will remain the dominant feature for Utah through the balance of the week. Water Vapor Satellite shows a ridge centered over Nevada, has expanded east into Utah. Strong high pressure aloft centered across northwest Nevada will remain the dominant feature across the western CONUS through the balance of the week.
An initial impulse ahead of the main trough axis, located over eastern Kansas to central Illinois this morning, will move through this morning. Main trough axis shifts overhead around or shorlty after midnight, but another ripple in the flow will move overhead on Wednesday for a continued chance of scattered showers. On the temperature front, continued below normal conditions are expected thanks to the cloud cover, rainfall, and lack of strong ridge in place.
This drier air should keep rain chances slightly lower across the Nature Coast the remainder of today, while deeper moisture along with the presence of a trailing trough axis from Emily across the southern peninsula supports good chance to likely category pops from the I-4 corridor south during the afternoon and early evening hours. A trailing trough axis across the south central Gulf waters from TD Emily over the Atlantic will enhance shower and thunderstorms coverage over the central and southern waters during the afternoon with higher wind and seas possible in the vicinity of the thunderstorms, otherwise no headlines are expected.
A rather broad area of mid and high based clouds was streaming eastward across the lower OH and TN valleys this morning. Thus far, the lower atmosphere was too dry to support precipitation this far east. The trough continues to deepen on Wednesday sending a reinforcing vort max, if you want to call it that, south through the morning, with the main forcing well into SE AL by Wed afternoon. At the same time, a prefrontal trough ahead of a developing upper low may give the NW areas some showers/storms as well.
Main cold front associated with this storm system will be evident with a switch to northerly winds after midnight tonight. BMickelson Previous short term discussion: There's a shift in the location of the persistent upper- level ridge axis farther to the west and into the gulf of Alaska. This places Northeast Montana on the downslope side of the ridge for northwest flow aloft. This pattern has been dry for us, but there is a strong, embedded wave in the upper flow that will send a more distinct cold front through our area today and this evening. However, the cooler air with the front will lower temperatures to close to normal today. This cooler air may mitigate the severe threat, however.
The dry and unseasonably weather from the weekend has been replaced with a warmer and more humid air mass over the past 24 hours. Very weak ribbons of energy passing through the persistent upper level trough over the eastern U.
/issued 458 AM CDT Tue Aug 1 2017/ Quiet weather pattern as high pressure over the central US controls the weather pattern this morning. Mrng lows xpcd into the mid 70s which will be about three to five degrees cooler than last week.
, will continue southeast today and tonight, eroding what is left of the weak ridge over South Texas. Deeper convection may focus closer to the aforementioned cold front that slips into the CWA.
744 AM EDT Tue Aug 1 2017 High pressure will keep the weather mainly fair but with slowly increasing humidity through mid week.
A broad upper level trough will help some shower activity to develop later today and into Wednesday.
/issued 516 AM CDT Tue Aug 1 2017/ (Today and Tonight) Strong mid/upper level high pressure will remain centered over the Great Basin through tonight, with an upper level trough situated across the eastern CONUS. Will continue with higher rain chances through tonight, along with cooler temperatures area-wide today due to increased cloud cover.
513 AM MDT Tue Aug 1 2017 Strong upper ridging remains centered across the Great Basin region with northwest flow across the northern plains. Surface flow will become more southeasterly today as the high pressure moves east of the CWA. but the higher likelihood will be strong winds with the storms with DCAPE over 1200.
957 AM EDT Tue Aug 1 2017 High pressure will cross the region today then move east Wednesday. A cold front from central Canada will move toward the Saint Lawrence Valley Wednesday night then stall there through the late week. High pressure will build across the region today with sunny/mostly sunny skies. High temperatures will range from around 80 to the lower 80s north, to the lower to mid 80s interior Downeast.
1016 AM EDT Tue Aug 1 2017 High pressure to the north will keep the weather dry and seasonable today and Wednesday.
High pressure over the Great Basin will allow upper level disturbances to drop southeast toward NM. Their associated back door cold fronts will dive into the eastern plains and highlands and possibly spill into the Rio Grande Valley.
Persistent northwest flow aloft over the Lower Mississippi River Valley, coupled with a disturbance embedded in it to our north, will cause some high clouds to drop southeast across the CWA during the course of the day. Meanwhile, high pressure at the surface will shift a bit further to the east, causing winds to become more southeasterly across the CWA. While clouds, primarily mid and high, as a whole will be on the increase areawide overnight, enough moistening in the lower levels of the atmosphere could result in a few light showers developing across this area towards day break Wednesday.
/issued 358 AM CDT Tue Aug 1 2017/ Upper ridge centered over the Great Basin this morning with a trough swinging across the Central Plains today and down across the Gulf states tonight. As a second trough deepens over the Eastern US later in the week the center of the ridge will drift west.
With heating today, expect scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop this afternoon despite the drier air, with the highest chances inland, and continued scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms across southern zones through the day. Temperatures should climb into the lower 90s north and central zones with upper 80s to near 90 south. Lows expected in the lower 70s north and inland to the upper 70s along the coast. For Wednesday, the trough across the area will start to lift back to the north as high pressure builds across south FL, with deep moisture lift over the area again and allowing for scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms across the area.
For this afternoon, a slug of very dry air continues to be forecast to nose into the Lower/Mid Valley from the Coastal Bend where morning precipitable water levels were 1. With the lower moisture holding for most of the night and little appreciable storm motion, trimmed back mentionable coverage to the 20-60 nm waters only, and also trimmed back morning mention with the dry air in place for most of the region. Deeper moisture begins to arrive Wednesday afternoon/evening across the ranchlands, associated with the tail of reinforcing energy into the trough east of the Mississippi but will assess that forecast for this afternoon's update.
A weak cold front is draped across the forecast area from near Pierre to Sisseton.
Heat index values will be much the same as the past several days, even with somewhat drier air around, the higher temperatures make it nearly a moot point. A tad more cloud cover is also expected as the surge of moisture comes back into the region while long wave mid- level troughing develops to our northeast.
High pressure ridging remains situated well south of ECFL and will for the next 24 hours. High temps will get back to 90 or the lower 90s as there will be more sunshine (eventually) than yesterday. Generally considerable clouds once the low grunge burns off, but at least some heating expected. Higher afternoon shra/tsra chances southward with deeper moisture/low-level trough here, perhaps favoring the interior early this evening.
Today the surface cold front is forecast to continue moving south into Nebraska, with cooler and drier air moving into ND from Canada.
Strengthening high pressure over much of the West Coast will result in well above average temperatures across the interior through at least midweek. Very warm to hot daytime temperatures are expected inland and across the higher elevations with minimal cooling overnight.
Dry and warmer temperatures are expected on Wednesday as subsidence behind today's upper level wave overspreads the region.
Cooler cloud tops and radar reflectivity returns are mostly over the eastern cwfa.
The high cloud deck isn't totally overcast however, with some thinness in spots on visible imagery. High pressure will be shifting east of the region today. Highs today may be just a bit cooler than yesterday with more clouds streaming across the region, but look to still top out in the mid to upper 80s.
For temperatures, a cooler, drier airmass that has moved over will see a bit of a moisture increase, but but general east to northeast flow over land, am expecting precip h20 levels to remain well below seasonal. With a general lack of clouds today and drier than seasonal airmass being counter balanced by a cooler airmass, am expecting around seasonal temps today, which means around 90 to the lower 90s.
The building ridge off the U. west coast will be producing a corresponding upper trough across the MS river valley the next few days. The elevated rain chances will remain in the forecast through the weekend as another cold front approaches and then stalls across the region.
A mostly sunny and mild afternoon is in store as the upper trough that impacted our area yesterday shifts south and east, developing showers over southeast KS into southern MO. For tonight, latest runs of the GFS, 4 km WRF models, and the HRRR develop a complex of storms over central NE, associated with an embedded upper trough and frontal boundary in the region. Residual cloud cover is likely to increase from the north overnight, with overnight lows in the lower to middle 60s.
Low amplitude trof was prevailing downstream. models bring a relatively stronger cold front through the Dakotas with the leading edge reaching the CWA late this afternoon.
Cochise county may be first place to watch as there is more sunshine there this morning and the low level H2O loop shows a circulation over NE Sonora drifting very slowly north which should give a boost to convection.
A weak upper level trof/short wave over northern IL will slide se across central and southeast IL today and bring isolated showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and early evening especially from IL river se and not getting into areas se of I-70 until late this afternoon. Highs in the low to mid 80s today with partly to mostly cloudy skies. Another weak short wave/trof slides se into central IL Wed afternoon bringing more 20-30% chances of showers and thunderstorms especially from I-55 east. 00Z forecast models continue to dig a strong upper level trof into the Midwest Thu/Fri and bringing a change in airmass. CAPES reaching 1500-2500 Thu afternoon especially from IL river se though wind shear values are weak (under 25 kts) ahead of cold front. Highs Thu in the low to mid 80s.
546 AM MDT Tue Aug 1 2017 Strong high pressure system is now in control of the western CONUS with active northwest flow expected to remain overhead through mid- week. Expect with mainly light rain and gusty winds, but models do hint at some higher moisture along the Pine Ridge, and combined with bulk shear around 40 kts, cannot rule out a stronger storm producing hail in this area. The wave is progged to move overhead on Wednesday, dragging a cold front south across the forecast area as well. Not overly confident whether storms will sustain for long in a cooler and more stable post-frontal airmass across the plains, but some may forced along the 700 mb front in the evening and overnight, and frontogenesis during this time looks to be a forcing mechanism as well.
Smoke from regional fires will continue some hazy conditions under the ridge. Upper high will remain centered far southeast Oregon and northwest Nevada through Wednesday. Moisture that has worked northward under the ridge will bring increased cloud cover and a slight chance of afternoon/ evening showers and thunderstorms to southern Harney, Malheur, and Owyhee counties.
630 AM CDT Tue Aug 1 2017 High pressure continues to dominate our weather at the surface with an upper level ridge over the western US providing northwesterly flow aloft. Highs today will be in the mid 80s, with the slightly warmer temperatures across northern MO where there won't be as much cloud cover. The low both at the lower and upper levels should track east across the northern Midwest, strengthening as it does.
A strong upper ridge will build northward off the Pacific Northwest coast this week.
1158 AM EDT Tue Aug 1 2017 High pressure will cross the region today then move east Wednesday. A cold front from central Canada will move toward the Saint Lawrence Valley Wednesday night then stall there through the late week. High pressure will build across the region this afternoon with sunny/mostly sunny skies. High temperatures will range from around 80 to the lower 80s north, to the lower to mid 80s interior Downeast. High temperatures along the Downeast coast will reach the lower 80s before a sea breeze develops this afternoon.
Building high pressure will bring hot temperatures across the interior the next several days. Meanwhile, immediate coastal areas have had a difficult time emerging from a shallow but stubborn marine layer, resulting in cooler than expected temperatures in places like Eureka and Crescent City. This is limited to only the lowest elevations, though, and not as much in the foothills that are above the marine layer.
Late Wednesday high pressure will move away from the region allowing southerly flow to return and begin pushing moisture back into the region.
It was a very cool August morning with lows in the lower 60s across interior southeast Georgia and the Suwanee Valley.
Near the surface, high pressure extends from the Great Basin into the Colorado Rockies and Western High Plains. Tuesday will be several degrees warmer and mainly dry. Stratus clouds will gradually lift and erode during the course of the day, allowing for more sunshine and subsequently afternoon temperatures in the lower 80s. Lows Wednesday morning in the lower 60s. Dry and noticeably warmer. Ridging aloft will temporarily strengthen, with a wedge of warmer air invading the plains ahead of an advancing cold front. With prefrontal compression, suspect the usual suspects on the lower elevations in the SE zones will reach at least the lower 90s.
Drier and warmer conditons are expected near the Utah border. High pressure builds to the northwest for the next few days, placing the CWA in east to northeast steering flow. The ridge begins to break down later in the week and over the weekend, with activity pushing back north and west.
955 AM EDT Tue Aug 1 2017 Early visible satellite photographs show mostly cloudy skies with temperatures in the lower to mid 80s along the lovely Florida Keys. Surface wise, a stationary trough is aligned across central Florida and the adjacent Atlantic and Gulf waters, with a ridge aligned across the Straits of Florida. With the mid and upper level trough reaching into the Florida peninsula lifting northward, additional drier air below 700 mb will be filtering into our region.
Clouds will gradually increase today as the aforementioned trough axis moves into the region. The trough becomes stationed over the region for the next several days, allowing for the return of diurnal convection as weak impulses embedded in the trough transit the region. Temperatures will be a couple of degrees cooler than average for early August throughout the entire forecast period.
Another quiet morning across Middle TN is upon us, though the transition from northwesterly flow aloft to more of a troughy pattern across the eastern CONUS is underway.
Another rather muggy night with temperatures and dew points early this morning in the lower to middle 60s. Focus shifts to incoming/passing cold front later this afternoon through tonight. There will still be a small chance of showers and isolated storms Wednesday as a weak mid-level trough swings through. Slightly cooler temperatures and drier dew points expected otherwise.
920 AM CDT Tue Aug 1 2017 A rather broad area of mid and high based clouds was streaming eastward across the lower OH and TN valleys this morning. Thus far, the lower atmosphere was too dry to support precipitation this far east. The trough continues to deepen on Wednesday sending a reinforcing vort max, if you want to call it that, south through the morning, with the main forcing well into SE AL by Wed afternoon. At the same time, a prefrontal trough ahead of a developing upper low may give the NW areas some showers/storms as well.
434 AM PDT Tue Aug 1 2017 August will begin with much warmer than average temperatures.
618 AM CDT Tue Aug 1 2017 The main concern today is areal coverage of precipitation, especially along a weak cold front moving southeast across the Upper Midwest. This weak circulation, along with the weak cold front, will provide some showers/storms to redevelop during the afternoon.
While the surface reflection of this trof will be pretty weak there's some decent forcing aloft associated with it as well as some cooler mid level air which will steepen lapse rates this afternoon.
1245 AM EDT Mon Jul 3 2017 General upper troughing eases east of the Upper Great Lakes through Mon. Quiet weather expected into Mon as high pressure expands from Hudson Bay to the Upper Great Lakes. Sct-bkn cu clouds expected on Mon with lake breezes, especially off Lk Superior, as the high builds overhead.
High temps on Mon are expected to be in the upper 80s to mid 90s acrs the plains, and mostly in the lower 80 in the upper Arkansas and San Luis valleys.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 70 89 71 89 / 40 30 20 40 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 68 87 68 87 / 20 30 20 30 Oak Ridge, TN 68 89 68 87 / 20 30 10 30 Tri Cities Airport, TN 66 87 66 86 / 10 30 20 30.
725 PM EDT Sun Jul 2 2017 A weak back door cold front will sag across the state Monday. The front will be followed by a brief period of dry, slightly cooler and less humid conditions for the 4th of July accompanied by light wind. It's still on the humid side over the lower Susq Valley, which is really not all that unusual for July. After a quiet night with just some patchy high based strato or alto cu clouds, a cold front will drop down from the north on Monday.
High pressure will build over the Great Basin this week, bringing very warm temperatures to northern Arizona and a slight chance thunderstorms to the high terrain, most numerous over the White Mountains.
On Monday, the ridge returns to eastern Montana with high temperatures well into the 90s across much of the area.
845 PM PDT Sun Jul 2 2017 Building high pressure will bring a warming trend and a shallower marine layer this week.
1258 AM EDT Mon Jul 3 2017 A cold front will exit across the maritimes overnight with a secondary cold front crossing the region Monday.
Weak low pressure aloft over the area will move east Monday afternoon. Temperatures will also be cooler on Monday. High pressure aloft will prevail Monday night through midweek for dry and warmer weather. The stronger onshore pressure gradient along with the presence of an upper level trough will lead to a deeper marine layer late tonight through Monday morning. The clouds will take longer to scatter out Monday, so expect max temps to be cooler. The flow aloft will turn SW as a strong ridge bulges over the central U. Overall, it will be sunny and warmer with highs in the 70s to lower 80s across the interior. It will remain cooler and 60s along the coast.
Afternoon temperatures will be a little cooler with readings in the upper 80s to low 90s.
Showers and thunderstorms are developing across the higher terrain of WY as well as near the boundary from southeast MT to NE.
607 PM MDT Sun Jul 2 2017 Current KCYS radar loop shows thunderstorms developing near the Pine Ridge from north of Lusk southeast towards Alliance Nebraska this afternoon.
Temperatures may be a little cooler than today with more clouds and thunderstorms expected.
A broad subtropical ridge remains over the southern tier of the U. Any showers that occur should be very shallow in nature beneath a strengthening subsidence inversion between 700-800 mb associated with the ridge. These clouds will keep low temperatures up into the mid to upper 70s as has been the case the last few nights while also continuing to offset the effects of the ridge during the day to keep high temperatures steady and heat index values below 105. The broad subtropical ridge will begin to build more over the western United States tomorrow, but it should not be enough to allow temperatures to begin decreasing.
Timing/location varies, but certainly justifies the higher pops portended by initialization grids.
Surface analysis reveals a very subtle stationary/moisture boundary across central Kentucky, with dewpoints in the low 60s to upper 50s north of the boundary, while dewpoints remain in the upper 60s to low 70s south of the boundary.
A cold front will push southward into southern Michigan tonight, allowing high pressure to build into the northern Great Lakes. The airmass will remain a touch on the cool side on Monday, with H8 temperatures of +9 to +11C, resulting in highs generally in the lower to middle 70s (which is still a few degrees below normal). High amplitude, broad H5 ridging will continue to build over the SW into mid-week with a cutoff low over the Gulf of Alaska and another moving across northern Canada into Hudson Bay.
1049 PM EDT Sun Jul 2 2017 A cold front will exit across the maritimes overnight with a secondary cold front crossing the region Monday.
We'll see no precip through the night as high pressure currently to the northwest slides through. We will have clear skies, light winds, and with dewpoints this afternoon mixing down into the upper 40s/lower 50s, we'll have no trouble cooling back comfortably into the 50s tonight, save for the core of the Twin Cities urban heat island, which will stay a few degrees warmer than the rest of the area. Out west, the weak and elongated trough currently working through the Rockies will be going across the Dakotas, though any precip with it will be staying off to our west until Monday night.
With the model trends, weak ridging, and a relatively nebulous pattern for convective focus, trended in the conservative route and reduced precipitation chances tonight into Monday during the daytime hours.
Weak upper troughiness to continue over the E CONUS, with upper ridge over the W.
Weak low pressure will begin to push into western SD tonight. By midnight some showers and thunderstorms associated with the low may be as far east as central SD. With southeasterly flow ahead of the low, temperatures will recover across the east. Highs will range from the lower 80s east to around 90 in the west.
906 PM EDT Sun Jul 2 2017 A cold front will bring a chance of showers and thunderstorms back to the forecast on Monday. A cold front will start to advance southward toward the area on Monday morning. Monday's cold front will remain stationary near the Mason-Dixon line through much of the period, and a chance of showers/storms will linger across southern counties.
Meanwhile, a backdoor cold front will settle slowly south, and into VA and northeastern NC Wed and Wed night. 00Z upper air analysis depicts a weak low level trough drifting east across the region. High generally in the lower 90s, with a few locations in the mid 90s. Low temps Monday night are again expected to be in the lower to mid 70s.