Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
314 AM MDT Wed Mar 31 2021 Following a cold morning across NE Montana, at least when compared to recent days, temperatures will be on the upswing as upper ridging becomes established over the next several days. While upper ridging will guide dry weather and warmer temperatures across the region, with highs into the 60s and 70s by Thursday and beyond, this pattern will begin to raise other forecast challenges.
500 mb trough exits the area to the east. The position of the high will keep winds northwest today but as the 500 mb trough and system continue to move out winds today will be considerably less as the core of 850 mb winds moves out as well. High pressure ridge axis to move over the area this evening and quickly moves east with south winds already developing over E ND by midnight.
620 AM CDT Wed Mar 31 2021 It will be a noticeably cooler day today with afternoon temperatures only getting into the 30s to low 40s. The humidity during the afternoon Thursday looks like it will drop into the 15 to 25 percent range, but winds will be pretty light (under 10 mph) as a ridge of high pressure at the surface moves across the area. The direction will start the day out of the north but swing around to the south by late afternoon on the back side of the ridge axis.
This is due to an area oh high pressure that has set up shop over the area. However, they should be a few degrees warmer than yesterday morning. Additionally, the inversion tonight should be a bit stronger, so wind machines should be relatively effective in mixing down the warmer air of the inversion for agriculture purposes in valleys west of the Cascades. A frontal passage of clouds will move into the area night into Thursday, which will keep low temperatures a bit warmer, but will also cool afternoon high temperatures.
The cold front has pushed through Winchester, Huntsville and Russellville, dropping temperatures into the upper 40s to lower 50s rather quickly in our far northwest areas.
Deep upper trof located over the Great Lakes with northwest flow aloft over the Northern Plains. Forecast for the weekend features broad upper level ridge over the plains.
626 AM CDT Wed Mar 31 2021 1028 mb Pacific high pressure across the nrn Rockies will build through wrn and ncntl Nebraska today and strengthen to 1038 mb across the Midwest Thursday. A deep upper level low will settle over the Northeast U. A second upper low or long wave trof will form along or just off the West Coast similarly forming modest blocking ridge across the central U.
Water vapor imagery shows an upper trough extending from Western Ontario down to OKlahoma. Confidence is increasing that overnight lows will fall below freezing for most of the area which cold be an issue for anyone who has already started planting sensitive vegetation. Lee troughing will continue to deepen for Fri as an upper impulse moves out of the Desert Southwest and toward the southern Rockies. Meanwhile, a broad area of upper ridging will extend from the Great Basin and through the Plains for the weekend and into the start of the work week. By Wed afternoon, the GFS has an upper trough from the Northern Intermountain down into the Great Basin. Meanwhile, the ECMWF has zonal flow or even some weak upper ridging in this same location.
A cold front had moved across most of the Mid State late night and early this morning, and it will be completely past our southeast counties within the next hour or so. Toward daybreak, many areas will dip to freezing for a brief time.
754 AM EDT Wed Mar 31 2021 A low pressure system will bring rain today, and then snow showers tonight and Thursday with much cooler air.
Given good low level instability and mixing increased winds as well towards the higher end of guidance for today. High pressure moves in tonight, leading to clear skies. This is due to the low levels drying out this afternoon. High pressure will build over the CWA late this afternoon and evening as a longwave ridge moves into the central CONUS. In addition, high temps tomorrow will increase to the low 40s, which is close to average for this time of year.
For the afternoon, pressure falls will take place ahead of the approaching cold front as a strong vort max pivots through the base of a larger trough. This CAA will bring in near freezing temperatures as early as Thursday morning for the far northern counties.
Latest surface analysis places a cold front nearly parallel to I-40. Scattered post-frontal showers will also develop across much of the area this morning and continue into the afternoon hours as the main trough begins to swing through. Low temperatures will drop below freezing across rural parts of west Tennessee and eastern Arkansas.
522 AM MDT Wed Mar 31 2021 A upper trough axis reached from north of Lake Superior southwest through the central Great Plains and Four Corners. A upper ridge was parked off the Pacific Coast. The upper trough over the middle of the CONUS will progress east, while the upper ridge moves into the Intermountain West. The dry and warmer than normal weather pattern will continue into the weekend under the influence of a large scale ridge.
These clouds are likely near or slightly below freezing and may contain a little super-cooled water so some rime icing is possible, though it should be fairly simple to get above or below to avoid the icing. /issued 255 AM CDT Wed Mar 31 2021/ A low amplitude upper level low pressure trough sliding by north of the area this morning will be to the east later today. Temperatures around 8-10 degrees below normal are expected today and tonight, including lows tonight dropping near or just below freezing many areas on the Caprock. RMcQueen Tomorrow will be breezy as a surface lee trough sets up across the central US.
Currently, northwest flow aloft as a mid level trough continues to push east, centered from the Great Lakes region south/southwest through the Southern Plains. Upper level ridging across the west today will build east across the Rockies tonight. Ridge flattens later in the week with zonal flow aloft developing across the Northern Plains for the end of the work week through the upcoming weekend.
We'll have a much chillier day today as the cold front that brought last night's rain pushes off to the east. Areas of clouds may produce some scattered sprinkles or light rain as a small upper wave ejects out of the Tennessee Valley ahead of the incoming main upper trough. This feature will produce clouds and possibly a few flurries from southeast Indiana into the Blue Grass as the axis of the upper 5H trough moves in from the northwest. Northwest breezes ahead of strengthening high pressure over the Midwest will usher in cold air, with lows tonight generally in the upper 20s.
Increasing cloud cover will produce some MVFR/IFR conditions by the end of the period as a cold front approaches the area.
1051 AM EDT Wed Mar 31 2021 A subtropical ridge remains in control across the area this morning, maintaining east to southeast winds. Otherwise, temperatures are in the lower 80s with dew points in the lower 70s, making it muggy out there. Otherwise, winds will generally diminish through the day and into the overnight in advance of our next cold front.
258 PM EDT Wed Mar 31 2021 A deep upper trough will progress into the region overnight with a secondary cold front associated with this feature ushering in H85 temperatures around -15C by late tonight/Thursday. This period of snow showers will really the only notable chance of precipitation for the rest of the week on into the weekend as a sprawling arctic high pressure system settles from the upper midwest southeast into the eastern CONUS. Temperatures will be very cold for early April as lows drop into the lower 20s over the next few nights with highs only in the lower to mid 30s on Thursday.
352 PM CDT Wed Mar 31 2021 The cold front is well clear of the Mid-South this afternoon and we continue to see gusty north winds across the region for a few more hours. A few sprinkles may be affecting portions of the TN Valley, but this activity will wane and cloud cover will diminish from west to east as the trough axis moves across the area this evening. Despite the winds remaining slightly elevated, freezing temperatures are expected across a good chunk of the CWA. North winds will increase to 10-15 mph and highs will top out in the low/mid 50s.
Very dry air, along with light winds, and clear skies will be a good set up for radiational cooling, allowing temperatures to drop into the 30s for most areas, and into the lower 30s for low lying and valley locations. We expect high pressure to keep dry conditions in place with gradually warming temperatures through this weekend.
With the cooler airmass in place and good radiational cooling conditions, overnight temperatures will drop back to near or below freezing for all locations west of the Caprock escarpment with temperatures in the mid 30's to the east. With this southerly flow in place and rising heights aloft, temperatures will be about 5 degrees warmer than this afternoon. The upper low spinning off Baja California will move into the Desert Southwest late this week, then pass over the region in a much-degraded state the first half of the weekend. An increase in mid-high level moisture and cloud cover will accompany the approach and passage of the disturbance which will be embedded in broader upper ridging encompassing the center of the nation.
256 PM CDT Wed Mar 31 2021 Opposing weather headlines for today with fire weather concerns this afternoon and freezing conditions overnight. An upper level trough passing through the area continues to push dry cool air into the region. An upper level ridge moves in during the overnight keeping skies clear. The lack of cloud cover enables strong radiational cooling which dips temperatures well below freezing. Overnight lows are anticipated to reach the low to mid 20s for much of the area. A Freeze Warning continues for areas south of the MO River where seasonal temperatures have been warmer, and thus contains more susceptible vegetation.
Tonight skies will clear and winds decrease as the high slowly moves east from the Plains.
1228 PM CDT Wed Mar 31 2021 (Today and tonight) A cold front had moved south of I-10 early this morning. as moist air rose over cooler air at the surface. as the cooler and drier air moves in from the north and deepens. Highs will be mainly in the lower to mid 60s. A few low lying or valley areas may briefly dip to the freezing mark or see light frost.
223 PM EDT Wed Mar 31 2021 The upper ridging has flattened out and shifted farther south over the southern Gulf of Mexico. On the surface, strong high pressure northeast of Bermuda ridges southwest over the Bahamas and into the southern Gulf of Mexico. Scattered showers will be possible this afternoon/evening with the highest coverage along the east coast and interior counties. One more day of unseasonably warm temperatures expected today and tonight before a cold front sweeps through on Thursday. By late Wednesday into Thursday, deep troughing digs into the Mississippi River Valley and moves eastward. This troughing will support a more significant weather system that will push a cold front through the Florida peninsula on Thursday. Current guidance has the highest rain chances over the interior and east coast with frontal passage.
Strong return flow is expected Thursday as high pressure exits eastward.
Temperatures continue to warm over the next few days as ridge persists.
350 PM CDT Wed Mar 31 2021 Cold front quickly progressing southward, and is clearly seen from LCH radar as a line from around coastal Jefferson County stretching to the ENE into Iberia Parish and points onward.
422 PM EDT Wed Mar 31 2021 Line of strong convection working its way across the forecast area this afternoon ahead of a strong cold front. Clouds gradually clear overnight, winds increase and temperatures fall behind the cold front. Only seeing freezing or below freezing temperature potential in the northeast mountain counties for tonight, where the Frost/Freeze program hasn't started back up yet for the spring.
The region is currently sitting in the wake of a strong cold front that moved through this morning.
Pattern synopsis/forecast: Sharp upper trough will slide into the Great Lakes tonight with the core of coldest 850mb air just upstream. Low level moisture convergence in the vicinity of the trough, combined with robust overlake instability, will result in an uptick in snow shower activity late this afternoon and evening. Pattern synopsis/forecast: Broad/deep troughing centered overhead early Thursday morning will gradually shift eastward throughout the day. propelled by upstream ridging encroaching on the Midwest/Great Lakes from the west.
We decided to use social media to spread the word about the very cold start to the day and the need for warmer clothing.
A ridge of high pressure is building over the region today, causing lighter winds and more pleasant conditions overall.
High pressure will build across the area tonight and remain in control of the weather into Thursday.
Sunny and 10 to 13 degrees warmer today and again Thursday as a Pacific upper ridge comes in.
1239 PM CDT Wed Mar 31 2021 The cold front that moved though last night was well east of the area this morning with only some lingering light showers possible through early this morning. Though high pressure was making its way into the area and temperatures will be cooler today, the surface pressure gradient will be slow to weaken, likely holding off until this evening. As we head into the evening and the overnight hours, cold high pressure will move over the region with overnight temperatures falling into the 20s under clearing skies across the region. High pressure will remain over the region on Thursday sliding slowly east as an upper level trough moves towards the Appalachians.
1231 PM CDT Wed Mar 31 2021 1028 mb Pacific high pressure across the nrn Rockies will build through wrn and ncntl Nebraska today and strengthen to 1038 mb across the Midwest Thursday. A deep upper level low will settle over the Northeast U. A second upper low or long wave trof will form along or just off the West Coast similarly forming modest blocking ridge across the central U.
(This evening through Thursday) Had a light freezing across the northwest one-quarter of Oklahoma this morning, actually a hard freeze in a few spots.
Otherwise, gusty northwest winds 25 to 35 mph will diminish by 6-8 pm, and then winds become light and variable overnight with high pressure settling overhead.
930 AM MDT Wed Mar 31 2021 Warm up will start today and really take hold on Thursday as upper level ridging builds in. Upper level ridging to somewhat weak zonal flow are expected to bring downslope flow, further bolstering temps into 60s and 70s through the weekend.
Temperatures today have remained fairly steady in the wake of a strong late-March cold front. We may see a few light rain showers or sprinkles out of the quick moving system, but dry air in the lowest 6-7kft will limit how much moisture makes it to the ground. Many locations will only top out in the lower 40s.
Under the influence of cool high pressure, afternoon high temperatures will only climb into the low to mid 60s. Otherwise, dry conditions to continue into Thursday night with temperatures forecast to fall into the low to mid 30s.
219 PM CDT Wed Mar 31 2021 Who can have temperatures near freezing before getting close to the century mark one week later? Us, that's who! We are in for some wild temperatures to start off the first week of April, but that is pretty typical for these parts. The cold front that moved through yesterday and last night continues to bring gusty north winds and much cooler temperatures to the region. Surface ridging shifts east allowing return flow to commence late tomorrow. Weak upper ridging will be in control so expect dry conditions to continue.
A cold front has moved through Middle Tennessee, and cold air will continue to move in with brisk northwest winds. By daybreak, most locations will be at or a few degrees below freezing.
212 PM CDT Wed Mar 31 2021 Clear skies and surface ridging conditions will result in excellent radiational cooling conditions tonight, with sub-freezing temperatures expected across parts of northeast OK into northwest AR.
130 PM EDT Wed Mar 31 2021 A wave of low pressure will lift into the area behind tonight with colder air in place leading to snow showers through Thursday night.
Milder air will arrive as the high shifts to the east Thursday.
/issued 1142 AM CDT Wed Mar 31 2021/ The cold front has moved through the entire Mid-South, ushering in cooler and drier air. The upper-level trough axis remains to our west, so we'll maintain a chance for light showers through this afternoon, gradually ending from west to east. We're going to bring April in with freezing temperatures for some areas. Latest surface analysis places a cold front nearly parallel to I-40. Scattered post-frontal showers will also develop across much of the area this morning and continue into the afternoon hours as the main trough begins to swing through. Low temperatures will drop below freezing across rural parts of west Tennessee and eastern Arkansas.
Even with the progressive nature of the trough axis through the WFO PAH forecast area today,there will still be enough mid-level moisture to kick out a brief round of isolated to locally scattered light showers from late morning into the early afternoon today from west to east.
Otherwise, we're also looking at temperatures about 10 to 20 degrees warmer than normal. This is due to an area oh high pressure that has set up shop over the area. However, they should be a few degrees warmer than yesterday morning. Additionally, the inversion tonight should be a bit stronger, so wind machines should be relatively effective in mixing down the warmer air of the inversion for agriculture purposes in valleys west of the Cascades. A frontal passage of clouds will move into the area night into Thursday, which will keep low temperatures a bit warmer, but will also cool afternoon high temperatures.
Very dry air, along with light winds, and clear skies will be a good set up for radiational cooling, allowing temperatures to drop into the 30s for most areas, and into the lower 30s for low lying and valley locations.
152 PM CDT Wed Mar 31 2021 The powerful upper trof axis will drop southeast through the OH and TN valley overnight. North flow will be quite gusty again, gusting over 20kt through the day, and highs will only reach around 50 in valley areas, and only the lower to middle 40s atop the Cumberland Plateau. As the center of the Arctic high drops southeast into the lower OH valley, wind flow will subside.
Cold high pressure will build across northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin tonight into Thursday.
Leaned towards the cooler side of ensemble guidance, even though the spread among the NBM and GEFS BC ensemble members are fairly narrow, between 3 and 5 degrees. Lows will be in the low to mid 20s tonight, which are at least 15 degrees below normal for this time of year. Despite plenty of sunshine, highs will still be 10 to 15 degrees below normal, ranging from the low 40s over south central Illinois to the upper 40s over central and southeast Missouri.
1224 PM CDT Wed Mar 31 2021 Siouxland will spend one more day under the direct influence of a deep upper level trough that has brought a chilly Canadian air mass to the region. Clear skies again allow temperatures to drop to near 20, but a lack of moisture in the low levels should keep fog from forming. The large scale pattern changes on Thursday as a ridge begins building over the Plains.
With the presence of very dry air, went below guidance for lows tonight in the low to mid 20s. A warmup Thursday as a warm front lifts northeastward through the day.
Dry weather pattern continues with the upper level pattern transitioning to a broad western ridge setting up and expanding into the area.
The ridge of high pressure responsible for clearing skies and warming trend will slide overhead tonight. Winds shift to the southwest on Thursday, as a closed low becomes ingested into the broad ridge and lifts towards the Desert Southwest. This will enhance warm air advection and allow Thursday's high temperatures to rise another 5 to 10 degrees warmer than today. On Thursday night, the closed low pressure trapped under the expansive ridge will move ashore in southern Cal.
1142 AM CDT Wed Mar 31 2021 The cold front has moved through the entire Mid-South, ushering in cooler and drier air. The upper-level trough axis remains to our west, so we'll maintain a chance for light showers through this afternoon, gradually ending from west to east. We're going to bring April in with freezing temperatures for some areas. Latest surface analysis places a cold front nearly parallel to I-40. Scattered post-frontal showers will also develop across much of the area this morning and continue into the afternoon hours as the main trough begins to swing through. Low temperatures will drop below freezing across rural parts of west Tennessee and eastern Arkansas.
233 PM MDT Wed Mar 31 2021 Latest surface map has high pressure across much of the northern plains with a lee trough from MT to CO. Water vapor images showed an upper ridge over the Pacific Northwest with a deep trough over the Great Lakes area. Gusty northwest winds continued today, but will slowly decrease this evening, and then turn southerly overnight as the upper ridge and surface lee trough approach.
400 PM EDT Wed Mar 31 2021 An upper level disturbance will move trough tonight into Thursday.
238 PM CDT Wed Mar 31 2021 Despite the high pressure moving overhead, we have seen gusty northwest winds continue to increase through the afternoon. Winds at the surface and low levels shift around to the southwest for Thursday as the upper trough pushes off to our east and ridging gradually builds overhead.
A ridge of high pressure will remain over the region providing mostly clear skies. Temperatures will be 7 to 15 degrees warmer today then slight warmer overnight as well.
/Tonight through Wednesday/ It has been an active spring day across the forecast area as an upper level trough axis begins to pull through the region. An extensive stratocumulus deck over northern into eastern Iowa has kept temps cooler/higher RH, but steepening lapse rates through a deepening boundary layer have produced isolated to scattered light snow showers.
The cold front has passed through the majority of the area and will continue progressing southeast out of the CWA over the next couple of hours. This will keep temperatures on the cooler side with highs expected to be in the mid 60s to low 70s.
1123 AM MDT Wed Mar 31 2021 A upper trough axis reached from north of Lake Superior southwest through the central Great Plains and Four Corners. A upper ridge was parked off the Pacific Coast. The upper trough over the middle of the CONUS will progress east, while the upper ridge moves into the Intermountain West. The dry and warmer than normal weather pattern will continue into the weekend under the influence of a large scale ridge.
356 PM EDT Wed Mar 31 2021 We remain for now on the western periphery of a subtropical ridge axis that is residing just north of our area. It is retreating in advance of the next cold front which currently resides along the northwest Gulf coast and moving southeast. As a result of the retreating subtropical ridge axis, our winds have been gradually diminishing through the day. Dew points have held in the lower 70s, keeping muggy conditions.
309 PM CDT Wed Mar 31 2021 The main upper trough continues to shift east this afternoon, with the main trough axis currently extending from near the great lakes region south to eastern Oklahoma/western Arkansas. Meanwhile, at the surface, high pressure continues to build over the state this afternoon with the center currently over west central KS. This combo should allow the area to radiate out tonight dropping lows below freezing for much of the CWA.