Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
853 PM EDT Thu May 18 2017 A cold front will slide southeast across the state tonight and early Friday. Relatively cooler and drier air will follow for the weekend.
The front lingers near the Mason-Dixon line Friday, with slightly cooler air behind it. A slightly cooler and drier air mass will push in behind the boundary, although temperatures will remain above normal for the most part.
A cold front will slide southeast across the state tonight and Friday bringing scattered showers and thunderstorms, followed by a relatively cooler and drier airmass through much of the upcoming weekend.
830 PM PDT Thu May 18 2017 Mostly clear and much warmer through the weekend with high pressure building over the West.
Dry weather also accompanies these warmer temperatures, continuing into the week ahead. An anomalous upper-level low northeast of the Four Corners region continues to provide lower heights and consequently cooler temperatures across Arizona. The deep upper low moves east Friday, but the progression is slow enough to allow for yet another day of high temperatures 5-10 degrees below normal. The wind regime also begins to ease, especially during the weekend as the gradient relaxes under a building mid-level ridge.
1050 PM EDT Thu May 18 2017 A cold front will move south across the area late this evening into tonight. High pressure will then shift east across the region Friday with much cooler temperatures and dry weather.
/12/ Prior discussion below: Tonight through Friday, A warmer than normal and moist weather pattern will persist over the ArkLaMiss tonight through Friday as a mid level ridge center remains anchored near the southern Atlantic Coast region. As was the case today, diurnal convective precipitation will develop Friday given plenty of instability and sufficient deep layer moisture, but relative warmth in the mid levels of the atmosphere associated with ridge should help to limit thunder potential.
The better chance of storms may come in after midnight as the upper low over Utah moves into N. (Friday night through next Thursday) As another upper low moves out of the Central Rockies and over the Southern Plains, a cold front will be pushed into West Central Texas Friday night.
Local radar continues to remain absent of any precipitation over the forecast area as any significant moisture remains confined to the low levels only on a strong southerly flow.
There were two vort maxima dumbbelling around the low. The upr low referenced above will lift across the Cntrl Plns Sat with the upr trof remaining overhead. The mean longwave trof that has been over the W will transition over the Plns in the wake of this low with NW flow finally becoming established by Tue as the trof nudges E. The EC runs have a ridge moving over the Plns with a potent low over Alberta/Sask while the GFS/CMC and the GFS ens mean maintain NW flow.
700 PM CDT Thu May 18 2017 For the 00Z TAFs, sfc cold front will move through all terminal sites this evening and tonight. This wave is advancing eastward ahead of a broad upper level low spinning over western CO / eastern UT and may help initiate a few more storms off the dryline over the next few hours. The main wave along the periphery of the low is progged to move across the area Friday afternoon. While the dryline is expected to be just east of the Panhandles, slightly better moisture (Td around 50) behind the cold front will aid in possible storm development Mainly for the western and northern zones Friday afternoon and evening.
911 PM MDT Thu May 18 2017 A weak upper level ridge of high pressure will try to build over the Pacific Northwest tonight through Friday. A few light showers are possible early this evening as the main upper level low from yesterday pulls away into the central Plains states. Afternoon temperatures on Friday will be a touch warmer than today for most areas. An unsettled northwest flow aloft will develop through the weekend with broad ridging over the U.
Cold front extended from lower MI to central IL and then to low pressure situated in the se corner of CO. In the dvn cwa, northerly winds were bringing clouds and cooler temperatures to our northern cwa while it was milder in the south with a west wind, and plenty of sunshine. Lows tonight will range from the lower 40s along Highway 20 to the mid 50s in extreme northeast MO. Highs on Friday should range from the lower 50s along Highway 20 to the mid 60s in extreme northeast MO.
Bulk shear and low level helicity north of the warm front appear sufficient for a few strong updrafts, with some strong downburst winds possible as the line advances to the ENE after sunrise tomorrow morning. Lows will remain in the low to mid 60s south of the front, with low 50s from Galesburg to Lacon and mid-upper 50s in between. Most of the forecast area only seeing scattered clouds at the moment, with a cold front edging into the northwest part of the CWA. The main threat of rain will be spreading in from the southwest later in the night, as the large upper low over Utah and Colorado digs southward and sends energy northeast out of the Texas panhandle.
/ISSUED 917 PM CDT Thu May 18 2017/ At 01z, a weak area of low pressure was located over the Texas panhandle.
810 PM EDT Thu May 18 2017 A cold front approaches from the Great Lakes tonight and passes through the area Friday afternoon.
552 PM MDT Thu May 18 2017 Powerful late Spring storm system underway across southeast WY and the western Nebraska Panhandle as a slow-moving area of low pressure spins towards CO.
Cooler, albeit still above average temperature can be expected behind the front today given a lack of sustained cold advection under zonal flow.
Friday should be similar to today for aviation interests; widely scattered convection mainly over the higher terrain with vfr conditions expected at the terminals.
1049 PM EDT Thu May 18 2017 A cold front approaches from the Great Lakes tonight and passes through the area Friday afternoon.
728 PM EDT Thu May 18 2017 High pressure will maintain dry weather and above normal temperatures through Friday.
Coulston A weak upper level ridge of high pressure will try to build over the Pacific Northwest tonight through Friday. A few light showers are possible early this evening as the main upper level low from yesterday pulls away into the central Plains states. Afternoon temperatures on Friday will be a touch warmer than today for most areas. An unsettled northwest flow aloft will develop through the weekend with broad ridging over the U.
Templer Previous discussion - Synoptic Setup: A narrow trough currently extends from Utah through Wyoming and into the Dakotas. On the backside a weak ridge is developing from northern California through Idaho and western Montana and southern Alberta. A narrow weak trough has also developed over the North American coast. Today: High pressure at the surface and exiting trough aloft has left a variably cloudy skies and dry conditions through the afternoon. Tonight through Friday: Weak ridge over alberta will nose through the area over these periods keeping conditions dry. Low tonight may be able to break freezing along the valley bottoms and other low lying areas.
This afternoon, a warm front was noted across east central Kansas oriented from east to west. Main concern this afternoon will be if storms begin to develop along this warm front as the HRRR has been depicting in model runs.
708 PM CDT Thu May 18 2017 Winds are shifting to the northeast near the lakeshore earlier than inland areas with a cold front working its way south this evening. This push of dry, cooler air with northeast winds will lead to higher gusts during the overnight hours, especially near the lake. Winds are shifting to the northeast near the lakeshore earlier than inland areas with a cold front working its way south this evening. Rain associated with low pressure over the Plains will spread into southern WI Friday morning.
A lot will depend on the strength of the line as it pushes across Arkansas as the upper ridge remains fairly strong across the Mid-South.
1128 PM EDT Thu May 18 2017 A cold front approaches from the Great Lakes tonight and passes through the area Friday afternoon.
1019 PM EDT Thu May 18 2017 A cold front will slide southeast across the state tonight and early Friday. Relatively cooler and drier air will follow for the weekend.
Clearing skies tonight as high pressure builds in. Friday will be mostly sunny but remaining below normal in the wake of the low.
1037 PM EDT Thu May 18 2017 High pressure will maintain dry weather and above normal temperatures through Friday.
This combination will keep rather mild conditions in place overnight, with overnight lows in the lower to middle 70s. Local radar continues to remain absent of any precipitation over the forecast area as any significant moisture remains confined to the low levels only on a strong southerly flow.
826 PM EDT Thu May 18 2017 A cold front approaches from the Great Lakes tonight and passes through the area Friday afternoon.
To the west of this line scattered showers can be expected with more numerous showers across the panhandle in closer proximity to the main upper low. Main upper low will migrate toward SW KS by later Friday afternoon. Isentropic lift persists all day across the area ahead of the low, and with increasing moisture advection, cannot rule out a shower anytime during the day.
Northwest of this line, the tornado threat is lower due to cooler and more stable air from earlier storms.
Winds are fresh to occasionally strong from the east/southeast, and temperatures along the island chain are in the lower 80s.
919 PM EDT Thu May 18 2017 A cold front will approach from the northwest tonight and cross the area on Friday.
/issued 246 PM CDT Thu May 18 2017/ SHORT TERM (Now through Friday Night): High pressure at the surface and at the 500 mb level will continue to be the dominant weather features over Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley during the short term forecast period.
Cold front associated with a low pressure system over southern Quebec will begin pushing south over parts of the Ohio River Valley region tonight and stall out near the I-64 corridor tomorrow morning. The stalled cold front and remnant MCV/outflow boundaries will provide lift for showers and thunderstorms during the day Friday.
High pressure aloft will prevail over the region through Friday. A weak low pressure system will move across the area Friday night, resulting in increased onshore flow.
Finally, we have low confidence in the wind forecast, as a cold front may move south from the TX Panhandle early Friday, only to retreat back to the north during the day.
A cold upper low centered over the Utah Colorado border will continue to move slowly east tonight.
12Z upper air analysis shows narrow mid level ridge axis positioned from off the southeast US coast, southwest over the Gulf. West of the ridge axis, high level southwest flow is firmly in place from Texas to the northeast ahead of an upper level storm system over the Plains. For Friday, temperatures lift into the lower 90s north of I-10, mid 80s coast.
724 PM EDT Thu May 18 2017 High pressure will maintain dry weather and above normal temperatures through Friday.
Also, the incoming cold front from the north on Friday is faster in the latest guidance. Finally, we have low confidence in the wind forecast, as a cold front may move south from the TX Panhandle early Friday, only to retreat back to the north during the day.
Noticeably cooler air will then filter in overnight behind a cold front.
Isolated showers over the higher terrain will diminish this evening and end by midnight. Upper ridge will start to nudge into the area on Friday for dry weather and warmer temperatures. Drier air now working its way into our CWA from the north and northwest as upper low moves from Utah to Colorado. Upper ridge off the northwest coast will expand inland tonight and Friday bringing drier and warmer weather to our area.
Winds have backed some more in the low levels, but overall shear values still remain on the low end.
00Z upper level analysis shows a degree of ridging still in place over Arkansas, but starting to erode. Trough emenating from a closed upper low in the four corners region and interacting with a strong surface system over Oklahoma has allowed strong storms to develop and move east/northeast.
The front lingers near the Mason-Dixon line Friday, with slightly cooler air behind it. That said, we remain in the warm sector ahead of a cold front that is only now emerging into northern Ohio. A slightly cooler and drier air mass will push in behind the boundary, although temperatures will remain above normal for the most part.
Low pressure will exit the region tonight, although below normal temperatures will remain in place through Friday.
1208 AM EDT Fri May 19 2017 A cold front will approach from the northwest tonight and cross the area on Friday.
Most of the forecast area only seeing scattered clouds at the moment, with a cold front edging into the northwest part of the CWA. The main threat of rain will be spreading in from the southwest later in the night, as the large upper low over Utah and Colorado digs southward and sends energy northeast out of the Texas panhandle.
High pressure then leads to drier weather Tuesday and Wednesday. Overnight lows will be in the 50s in the mountains to the lower 60s in the lowlands. This will eventually scour out the low level moisture during the day on Tuesday. A high pressure builds behind the front to bring drier and cooler conditions Tuesday and Wednesday. With dry atmosphere in place there will be cooler mornings with possible fog.
304 AM CDT Tue Aug 8 2017 High pressure to the north will keep northerly flow in the region which will in turn keep the temperatures below normal though Wednesday.
High pressure will keep the weather quiet for the Midwest for the short term. in the low to mid 50s, well below climatological norms.
304 AM EDT Tue Aug 8 2017 Low pressure will pass just south of Nantucket around daybreak today.
We have a little better confidence in when the highest precipitation chances will be late in the week and have refined the forecast accordingly. Late in the day, instability will build across northwest Oklahoma which will be closer to low-level theta-e ridge and where mid- level lapse rates steepen. As the lee trough shifts eastward across southwest Kansas, thunderstorms will likely develop. Storms will be unlikely roughly south of I-40 where mid- level temperatures will be considerably warmer and instability lower.
a large and deep high pressure system remains centered over the western Atlantic and keeping a typical summer time weather pattern across the Florida peninsula. Afternoon temperatures will remain warm, mainly in the lower 90s. Nighttime lows will remain in the mid to upper 70s, with some coastal locations in the low 80s.
This will keep temperatures a few degrees warmer than yesterday; therefore highs will range from the upper 70s to lower 80s.
Meanwhile, Water Vapor Satellite trends and 00Z upper air analysis indicates a longwave trough located from Quebec back through the Ohio and Lower Mississippi Valleys. As of 3 AM CDT, temperatures across the Mid-South are predominantly around 70 degrees to the lower 70s.
One thing to note is that even though there is northwest flow over the CWA, it is not a strong ridge in the western CONUS causing this pattern.
155 AM EDT Tue Aug 8 2017 High pressure will build into the region through mid week bringing drier conditions and below normal temperatures. Models are suggesting that the cirrus will begin to thin after midnight as upper support is shunted to the east by H5 trof. Lows tonight will range from the mid 50s in the northwest to the lower 60s across the southeast. Dry weather is expected Wednesday as high pressure departs on a westerly flow aloft.
338 AM CDT Tue Aug 8 2017 High pressure continues to dominate at 3 AM CDT with clear skies and light winds across the upper midwest with temperatures in 50s with some light fog in low lying areas developing. Upstream energy continues to show little change in the next 36 hours with some slightly warmer temperatures through Wednesday. Latest run 00z models seemingly correctly trending slower with organization of upstream short wave trof late in the day. Highs generally in the low 80s and overnight lows in the upper 50s to lower 60s with some non-diurnal trends after midnight west of the MS RVR.
345 AM EDT Tue Aug 8 2017 The mid and upper level pattern of a Western Conus ridge and broad trough over much of Central and Eastern US and Canada remains in place this morning. At the surface, a cold front continues to settle south of the area while high pressure over the Midwest and MS Valley region continues to build into the OH Valley. The surface and mid and upper level ridging will remain the dominant weather features through early on Tuesday.
310 AM EDT Tue Aug 8 2017 A cold front will makes its way through the area overnight into Tuesday morning.
Temperatures look to fall into the lower to mid 50s outside of the Chicago area. Overall, highs are expected to top our near 80 in most areas, though slightly cooler temperatures are likely near the lake. The high will be shifting to the east into Wednesday but the pressure gradient will continue to be weak.
High pressure over the Desert Southwest will strengthen slightly over the next few days, resulting in somewhat warmer temperatures across our region for the remainder of the week.
A trailing mid-level trough will result in the redevelopment of isolated to scattered showers this afternoon, especially across higher terrain areas. 25" before rainfall ends, with the highest QPF across far nern VT. Mid-level trough crosses the North Country 16-18Z, and will likely yield some isold/sct showers, especially across higher terrain areas. While there is marginal surface-based CAPE on 00Z NAM profiles, EL temps generally warmer than -10C, so have left thunder mention out of the forecast. Lingering showers, mainly along the axis of an associated boundary from the low will mainly effect areas around the international border.
310 AM PDT Tue Aug 8 2017 Low pressure stalled over northern California will produce thunderstorms through midweek with strong storms and heavy rainfall possible. Today through Wednesday are shaping up to be active thunderstorm days as upper low persists over northern CA with continued abundant moisture and increasing instability over eastern CA- western NV. For Wednesday, the low is projected to become negatively tilted with low-mid level flow becoming southeast or south, increasing shear profiles and bringing a higher risk for more cells becoming severe and producing intense rainfall rates.
Upper trof over SE TX progged to move slowly SE and shear apart over the next 24 HRS or so. The next wave of activity, collocated with the upper level low feature to the west will begin impacting parts of southeast Texas by early Tuesday morning. A cold front has moved into North Texas and South Arkansas today with deep moisture pooled in south of the boundary and over the local area. An upper level trough is also over central sections of the country with embedded vorts affecting TX and LA. Wednesday the weakening front will gradually return north and then a ridge is expected to build in through the end of the week.
Sky cover will increase through the day and temperatures will climb into the lower 80s in Western and Central ND, which is still below average for this time of year. The higher probability for precipitation will be through the overnight hours and Wednesday.
Tonight Through Wednesday Cold front in place across roughly the mid section of Arkansas early this afternoon, with slow southerly progress expected over the next 12-24 hours. Avg highs across the state are in the lower 90s and we should remain some 5 to 10 degrees below that through the short term.
Positive tilted trough dropping south through Great Lakes will exit the local area early this evening. Expect any residual showers to end around sunset coincident with trough passage. High pressure builds in for Tuesday with mostly sunny skies and temps in the 70s.
/issued 313 PM CDT Mon Aug 7 2017/ (Tonight and Tuesday) An upper level ridge will remain centered across northern Mexico through the next 24 hours, while a weak cold front remains stalled across the southern portions of West Central Texas. High resolution models are indicating an upper level disturbance rotating around the upper level ridge to our west, which is resulting in shower and thunderstorm development across the South Plains. The aforementioned weak cold front will remain stalled across southern portions of the forecast area on Tuesday, serving as a focus for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms.
These things point to a bit less intensity today, but that will likely be offset by a bit more sunshine resulting in warmer temperatures.
NW flow aloft will continue to keep temperatures cooler than normal across the forecast area. This will bring a cold front south across Northeast Montana today. Air mass becomes somewhat unstable this afternoon and evening which will allow for a chance of thunderstorms mainly in the east where the cold front will be. It looks to feature upper level northwest flow with a ridge situated across the Pacific Northwest.
255 AM EDT Tue Aug 8 2017 A cold front will slip south into the area today and stall. Low temperatures are on track in the low to mid 70s. Upper/mid level trough over the eastern CONUS will shift toward the coast today. A cold front will move into the area from the Upstate today and stall east this evening. High temperatures are forecast several degrees below normal, in the lower to middle 80s.
1226 AM CDT Tue Aug 8 2017 The pattern aloft continued to feature an active northwest flow regime across the Central Plains with the main upper low pressure systems located in northern CA, Manitoba and Quebec with several subtle waves embedded within the flow. At the surface, a high pressure ridge was building southeast from the Dakotas into northern and eastern Nebraska.
The mid and upper level pattern of a Western Conus ridge and broad trough over much of Central and Eastern US and Canada remains in place this morning. At the surface, a cold front continues to settle south of the area while high pressure over the Midwest and MS Valley region continues to build into the OH Valley. The surface and mid and upper level ridging will remain the dominant weather features through early on Tuesday.
High pressure then leads to drier weather for today and Wednesday. Valley fog will form overnight tonight, beginning over the mountains, before becoming more widespread throughout the lowland valleys as well in the early morning. A cold front will linger just south of the area, keeping temperatures below normal.
Rain across our southern sections this morning is aligned with a trough axis at 850 mb, while a surface cold front identified by a weak dewpoint gradient and wind shift is across our northern sections. Cold advection will be counterbalanced by decreasing clouds and partial clearing, giving temps in the lower 80s in most spots, with 60s for lows tonight as high pressure settles across the Ohio Valley region.
This creep of moisture should occur from south to north each day and with the generally troughy pattern over the eastern CONUS, PoPs will start to increase from south to north each day, as well.
141 AM EDT Tue Aug 8 2017 Aviation A weak cold front will bring isolated showers late this afternoon before skies gradually clear tonight as a drier airmass moves in. High pressure will bring fair weather with seasonable temperatures Tuesday through midweek. The most persistent activity was between Grand Rapids and Battle Creek thanks to favorable interaction between the cold front and outflow boundaries. A weak cold front will bring isolated showers along and ahead of it over roughly the southeastern half of our fcst area mid to late this afternoon. High pressure will build in Tuesday through Wednesday and produce fair wx with seasonable temps.