Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S. HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OUT OF CANADA WILL BRING COOL.
Relief is a relative term as highs will still easily reach the upper 90s but after a string of triple digit highs even a few degrees cooler would be appreciated. An amplified upper high centered over the Texas Panhandle will shift west tomorrow decreasing subsidence across the area.
COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL FOLLOW FOR THE MIDWEEK PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND LATE THIS WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EAST FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. SFC COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM FINGERLAKES REGION SSW TO THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS AS OF 08Z. NEAR TERM GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE LOW LEVEL JET AND AXIS OF DEEPEST MOISTURE ACROSS THE STATE EARLY THIS MORNING. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S NORTH TO THE LOWER 80S SOUTHEAST.
320 AM CDT TUE AUG 11 2015 NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS THE ROCKIES RIDGE AMPLIFIES. TONIGHT ENERGY TOPPING THE RIDGE AND MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS, ALONG WITH SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE FRONT RANGE SHOULD DEVELOP SCATTERED CONVECTION. LOWS SHOULD COOL INTO THE LOWER 60S EAST AND INTO THE MID 60S WEST TOWARD CENTRAL KANSAS.
A weak cold front will slowly move south through the Big Country today. This will result in slightly cooler temperatures across the Big Country, with highs generally in the upper 90s.
149 AM EDT TUE AUG 11 2015 A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA TODAY AND BRING SHOWERS ALONG WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. MARINE LYR AHD OF THE LOW WILL CONT TO PROTECT THE FCST AREA FROM CONV. UPR TROF CONTS TO DIG AND DEEPEN INTO THU. THEY WILL BE ASSISTED BY WEAKER WV ROTATING THRU THE TROF AS IT DEEPENS. TROF AXIS PASSES EAST OF THE AREA THU MRNG FLWD BY DRIER AIR AND SLOWLY RISING HGTS ALLOWING TEMPS TO RECOVER SOMEWHAT AND LIMITING THE DVLPMT OF SHWRS.
238 AM MDT TUE AUG 11 2015 THE MAIN WEATHER CONCERN OVER THE NEXT 72-HR PERIOD WILL FOCUS ON THE BUILDING H5/H7 RIDGE INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES. LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE WORKING AROUND THIS RIDGE COMPLEX WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP CLOUD COVER OVER MUCH OF THE CWA. MODELS ALSO CONTINUE TO SHOW A CUTOFF UPPER LOW WORKING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST WHICH IS GOING TO ADD FURTHER MOISTURE INTO THE ROCKIES.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER BUT EXPECT CONDITIONS TO STILL BE RATHER HUMID UNTIL THE SECONDARY BOUNDARY PASSES.
WILL NEED TO INCREASE CLOUDS LATER MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THIS HIGHER RH AREA BRUSH BY OVER NORTHEAST WISCONSIN AND CU RULE SUGGEST SCT-BKN COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL. THIS WESTERLY WARM AIR RETURN IN THE LOWER LEVELS WILL PRODUCE SOME MINOR SHEAR WITH THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
140 AM EDT TUE AUG 11 2015 AVIATION A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING. COOLER AND MUCH LESS HUMID AIR WILL ARRIVE LATER TONIGHT AND LINGER INTO MID WEEK. THE END OF THE WEEK LOOKS WARMER WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S.
CURRENT WV IMAGERY SHOWS STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER TEXAS WITH RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING THROUGH EASTERN MONTANA INTO CANADA. DEEP UPPER LOW WAS ALSO LOCATED OFF THE PAC NW COAST LEAVING INTERMOUNTAIN WEST IN SOUTHWEST FLOW. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LARGE SCALE FEATURES AND HAVING SOME TROUBLES WITH THE EMBEDDED VORT MAXES THAT WILL BE RIDING OVER THE RIDGE.
SOUTHERLY FLOW ON WEST SIDE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE CIRCULATION (CENTERED OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE) ACCOUNTS FOR THE MOISTURE SURGE. SO EXPECT CELLS TO FAVOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS DOMINATE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CONUS. WHILE A DEEP UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW TRUDGES OFF THE PACIFIC COASTLINE. THE RIDGE AXIS IN THE MID LEVELS IS SLIGHTLY MORE PRONOUNCED AND AMPLIFIED ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE. ALONG THIS RIDGE AXIS. TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO SLIGHTLY COOLER. AN UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINATE WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS THE INTERIOR CONUS THROUGH THE WORKWEEK. THE PATTERN WILL BE BLOCKY AT THE START WITH CLOSED LOWS IN THE PACIFIC OCEAN OFF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA AND ANOTHER TROUGH ALONG THE EAST COAST. UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE NEGLIGIBLE UNTIL THE WEEKEND TIME FRAME WHEN THE WESTERN LOW LIFTS OUT AND BREAKS DOWN THE INTERIOR CONUS RIDGE.
330 AM PDT TUE AUG 11 2015 AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL SHRINK THE MARINE CLOUD LAYER AND BRING A WARMING TREND WITH TEMPERATURES PEAKING WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL VALUES BY THIS WEEKEND. BUT THE REAL WARMING WILL OCCUR WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER HIGH CENTERED OVER NEW MEXICO WILL BEGIN TO PUSH WESTWARD.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND IT STARTING TUESDAY AND THIS WILL BRING DRY WEATHER TO THE AREA.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW DEVELOPING SOUTHWARD OF THE WEST COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER NM/TX WILL TURN FLOW MORE SOUTHERLY WILL BRING MONSOONAL MOISTURE FIRST MAINLY TO MOHAVE COUNTY TODAY.
616 AM EDT TUE AUG 11 2015 A COLD FRONT APPROACHING TODAY WILL MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. THE HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS DISPLAY SCATTERED COVERAGE. WE USED THE COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE BECAUSE OF EXPECTED CLOUDINESS DURING MOST OF THE DAY. CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT SUPPORTS A CONTINUED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCE TONIGHT. CLOUDINESS AND MIXING ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT FAVORS THE WARMER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE. THE COLD FRONT MAY STALL IN THE COASTAL PLAIN WEDNESDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE UPPER TROUGHING CONTINUING OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE NATION THROUGH THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD. BUT REDEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA.
344 AM CDT TUE AUG 11 2015 06Z POSITION OF THE COLD FRONT IS ROUGHLY LOCATED ALONG THE OHIO RIVER. THE LOWER DEWPOINTS WILL BE MOVING IN.
247 AM PDT TUE AUG 11 2015 LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST WILL KEEP A SOUTH FLOW ACROSS THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA INTO WEDNESDAY.
REMNANT TROF ASSOCIATED WITH THE RECENT FRONTAL BNDRY HAS DRIFTED BACK INTO CENTRAL FL JUST S OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR. THE ATLC RIDGE AXIS HAS RETURNING AS THE DOMINANT WX FEATURE FOR THE REGION. THOUGH THE POSITION OF THE TROF IS KEEPING IS SOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED. RAP ANALYSIS BACKING THIS UP WITH H100-H70 MEAN RH VALUES BTWN 70-80PCT S OF THE TROF AXIS. THE POSITION OF THE TROF HAS ALLOWED A LCL MID LVL VORT MAX TO DVLP N OF THE BAHAMAS. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG THE MID ATLC SEABOARD TO THE NRN GULF COAST WL NUDGE SWD INTO N FL IN THE FORM OF A TROUGH.
LOTS OF STANDING WATER/MOIST ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS HAVE KEPT SURFACE DEWPOINTS ACROSS SRN KS INTO THE LOWER 70S. BUT WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS AS THINK THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE OUT. WITH MOST OF THE SUNSHINE GOING TO EVAPORATING THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER MAX TEMPS TODAY. THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP MOST OF THE SW MONSOONAL MOISTURE BOTTLED UP OVER SW KS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. THE COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR WED/THU AS WELL. KETCHAM THE MAIN UPPER RIDGE WILL RETROGRADE BACK INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS FOR FRI THROUGH EARLY SUN. RIDGE BEGINS TO FLATTEN OUT TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEKEND.
WV LOOP SHOWS THE MAIN RIDGE AXIS BUILDING TO OUR WEST. WE SHOULD RISE UP INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. AND SOUTH WINDS WILL START TO PICK UP AS A TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. THINK THAT TUESDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL STAY MOSTLY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S WITH INCREASED MIXING. THE MAIN UPPER RIDGE WILL NOT MOVE MUCH FOR WEDNESDAY.
343 AM EDT TUE AUG 11 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA TODAY AND MOVE OFFSHORE EARLY WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH FOR LATE WEEK. A COASTAL TROUGH MAY AFFECT THE AREA BY THE WEEKEND. WIDESPREAD MID AND HIGH CLOUDINESS CONTINUES TO SPILL INTO EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THIS MORNING AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND MID-LEVEL TROUGH. AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z WEDNESDAY AND THE AXIS OF THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE COAST. UPR TROUGH WILL BE PIVOTING THROUGH E NC DURING THE AFTERNOON AND WITH SOME REMAINING UPR SUPPORT CANNOT RULE OUT A SHOWER OR STORM IN THE AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL LOCALES.
SHORT TERM: (THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON) COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS WILL BE CLEARING THE SOUTHERN CWA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND COLD/DRY ADVECTION TAKING HOLD OF THE REGION. BLENDED GUIDANCE SUGGESTS HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S AND DEWPOINTS FALLING THROUGH THE 60S.
COLD FRONT TO THE NORTH WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE EASTERN TN TERMINALS TODAY.
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST AND AMPLIFIES BY TUESDAY MORNING AS THE 50 KT JET OVER NE UTAH AND NW COLORADO LIFTS NORTH. THE NAM GFS AND EC ARE INDICATING A VORT MAX EXITING THE WY/UT/CO BORDER WEDNESDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY.
ANY ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS SWRN OK/WRN N TX WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE THROUGH THE AFTN AS THE H500 RIDGE CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN ALONG THE ROCKIES. OVERALL IT IS A MESSY MESOSCALE PATTERN FOR THE SRN PLAINS AS THE RIDGE REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE SRN ROCKIES. AS THE H500 RIDGE CONTINUES TO SLIDE WEST. THE H500 RIDGE REMAINS IN CONTROL. TEMPS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL COOLER RELATIVE TO WHAT WE/VE RECENTLY EXPERIENCED.
IN THE NEAR TERM, A SURFACE COLD FRONT WAS CONTINUING TO PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. FOR TODAY, THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL SLOWLY SHIFT TO THE EAST. WE'LL STILL HAVE A BIT OF MOISTURE IN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE, SO A FEW SHOWERS AND/OR STORMS CAN'T BE RULED OUT THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER TODAY WITH HIGHS REACHING THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS THE NORTH WITH LOWER-MID 80S ACROSS THE SOUTH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT RESULTING IN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
THIS HIGH WILL ALSO BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS FOR THE MIDWEEK PERIOD. PRIMARILY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS SHORT TERM PERIOD GIVEN GENERAL SUBSIDENCE ON THE UPWIND SIDE OF NORTHEAST CONUS LONGWAVE TROUGH AND PRONOUNCED NEGATIVE THETA-E ADVECTION OVER THE GREAT LAKES. COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS WILL BE THE MAIN STORY FOR TODAY. 850MB TEMPS SET TO DROP INTO THE LOWER TEENS BUT WITH JUST A FEW DIURNAL CU. NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 20 MPH WILL NOT ONLY LEAD TO SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS NEAR THE LAKE BUT WILL ALSO GENERATE WAVES OF 3-5FT. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD SUPPORT DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING AND HAVE LEANED ON THE COOLER SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE WITH MID TO UPPER 50S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. UPR TROF OVER ERN CANADA/U. EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THU ALLOWING STRONG RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES TO BUILD EASTWARD.
323 AM CDT TUE AUG 11 2015 HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF SOUTH DAKOTA. THE LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS AGAIN OVERNIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
10/12Z RAOB DATA SHOWS THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WAS CENTERED OVER NORTHWEST TEXAS. LATE AFTERNOON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW A COLD FRONT DRAPED ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA. THE ABOVE MENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL SLOWLY RETROGRADE INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A SUBTLE INCREASE IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS IN STORE ACROSS EASTERN TEXAS AND THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY. THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL TEXAS TUESDAY NIGHT.
SPOTTY SHOWERS AND COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDWEEK PERIOD. THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL THROUGH CNY/NEPA GENERALLY BY 18Z TUESDAY. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER QUEBEC.
ALSO INCLUDED AREAS OF FOG AS ANY DRIER AIR AT THE LOWER LEVELS WILL BE SLOW IN MOVING INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL HELP TO ADVANCE A COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD EXIT SOUTHERN SECTIONS ON TUESDAY MORNING WITH LINGERING SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE MID SOUTH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND LOWER HUMIDITY VALUES CAN BE EXPECTED.
435 AM EDT TUE AUG 11 2015 COLD FRONT EXITS EAST BY AFTERNOON.
330 AM CDT TUE AUG 11 2015 GENERALLY A LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS IOWA TODAY AS CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE JUST WEST OF CENTRAL IOWA. WILL LEAD TO PLEASANT CONDITIONS TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY SETTLED ACROSS TX PANHANDLE WILL KEEP LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS IOWA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION. CONDITIONS WILL BE COOL FOR BEGINNING OF PERIOD WARMING THROUGH THE WEEK AS RIDGE SHIFTS EAST FOR THE WEEKEND.
443 AM EDT TUE AUG 11 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY.
THIS LOW WILL DICTATE THE CWA'S WEATHER FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. AND THE HIGH TERRAIN OF JOSPEHINE. THE UPPER LOW DRIFTS FARTHER TO THE SOUTH.
A MID AFTERNOON ANALYSIS SHOWED A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS IN/OH WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT FROM INDIANAPOLIS TO ST LOUIS. THE AIR MASS IS CHARACTERIZED BY READINGS IN THE 70S/80S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW/MID 70S. PLAN ON AFTERNOON CUMULUS TO DEVELOP AND HIGHS TOP OUT IN THE LOW/MID 80S. A PLEASANT EVENING IS IN STORE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. SETTING THE STAGE FOR A COOLER NIGHT. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE LOW/MID 60S.
AND THAT WILL BRING COOLER AND MUCH DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. DEWPOINTS BY THE END OF THE DAY WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER HALF OF THE 60S.
UPPER TROUGH TO THE NORTH AMPLIFIES INTO THE SE TODAY AS UPPER RIDGE RETROGRADES TO THE WESTERN U. CONVECTION WILL THEN LIKELY INCREASE ACROSS NE FL THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT AS UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT REACH CENTRAL GA. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 70S.
500MB RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL UNITED STATES CONTINUES TO PROVIDE SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE CWA. LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH MOVES AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS TEXAS.
Meanwhile, a cold front was in the process of moving south through the I-70 corridor. Dew points will be noticeably cooler on Tuesday with values generally in the middle 60s. Upper level northwest to northerly flow aloft will then persist across the area for the remainder of this week as upper level high pressure slowly retrogrades across the southwestern United States. A cold front has moved south of the area. High pressure will build into the region during the day today, with drier air gradually moving in from the north.
ACTIVITY FIRING ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL TROF AXIS AND GETTING SOME ADDITIONAL SUPPORT FROM A VORT-MAX WITHIN A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. LATTER PART OF THE WEEK APPEARS DRY BETWEEN AN AMPLIFYING WEST CONUS RIDGE AND DEEPENING EAST CONUS TROF RESULTING IN A DRY NORTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE COLUMN. GFS MAINTAINING MID-LEVEL CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE GULF WATERS LATER IN THE WEEK WHILE THE ECMWF EXPANDS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE GULF.
1122 PM MDT MON AUG 10 2015 CENTER OF UPPER RIDGE OVER NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON WITH RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NORTH/NORTHWEST ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT IN THE LOW 60S EXCEPT MID 60S IN THE TRIBUNE AND LEOTI AREAS.
EXPECT CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WITH TEMPERATURES COOLING INTO THE MID 50S TO THE LOWER 60S. THE MODELS SHOW THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA PUSHING SOUTHEAST WITH WARMER AIR RETURNING AND UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS RISING. THE GFS WAS WARMER THAN THE NAM AND THE EC THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE GFS WAS ABOUT 5 DEGREES C WARMER THAN THE EC AT 85H. THE GFS SHOWED MORE OF A SOUTHWEST COMPONENT TO THE LOW LEVEL WINDS FOR TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY BRINGING IN THE WARMER AIR. WHICH IS DOMINATED BY UPPER RIDGING AND WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT.
418 AM EDT TUE AUG 11 2015 AVIATION SECTIONS UPDATED A LARGE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF THE WESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE NATION WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA FOR THE DURATION OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
614 AM EDT TUE AUG 11 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE AREA.
SHORT RANGE MODELS MOVE THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
138 AM EDT TUE AUG 11 2015 A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS LATER TONIGHT.
321 AM CDT TUE AUG 11 2015 LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE ROCKIES AND CENTRAL CONUS. WHILE A STRONG UPPER LOW MOVES ASHORE THE WEST COAST AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SETTLES OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING SOUTHWESTWARD INTO SOUTHERN MISSOURI.
COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL FOLLOW FOR THE MIDWEEK PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND LATE THIS WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EAST FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. NEAR TERM GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A QUICK PROGRESSION ACROSS THE STATE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET AND AXIS OF DEEPEST MOISTURE. LATEST GUIDANCE TIMES THE LOW LEVEL JET EAST OF THE ENTIRE REGION BY 12Z. SFC COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO PUSH THRU EASTERN PA IN RESPONSE TO DIGGING UPPER TROF AXIS STILL JUST WEST OF PA.
317 AM CDT TUE AUG 11 2015 07Z/2AM SURFACE MAP SHOWS COLD FRONT SETTLING SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE ALLOWING A SLIGHTLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIRMASS TO TRICKLE INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS. DEWPOINTS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE NORTHWEST KILX CWA. CU-RULE SUPPORTS SCT DIURNAL CLOUDS DEVELOPING ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE PLAINS. OVERALL TREND HOWEVER WILL BE FOR MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER 80S.
Felt that the RAP had the right idea but was a little overdone in mixing to nearly 750 hPa, so balanced between the RAP's and HRRR's warmer/drier solution with consensus model solutions to bring highs into the mid 80s in most locations this afternoon, and dewpoints into the lower 60s. Upper-level high pressure over the desert southwest will expand and bulge eastward over the next several days, keeping the forecast area fully entrenched in northwest to northerly flow aloft through the work week and into the weekend.
333 AM CDT TUE AUG 11 2015 AS OF 3 AM A WEAK COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED ALONG A BRECKENRIDGE TO WAXAHACHIE TO TYLER LINE AND WAS MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD. AND MOISTURE ACTUALLY INCREASES WITH DEWPOINTS RISING FROM THE LOW 60S INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S. BUT HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE 3 TO 7 DEGREES COOLER ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA THANKS TO THE WEAK COLD ADVECTION AND MORNING MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER. HOWEVER IT IS POSSIBLE IT WILL BE COOLER THAN FORECAST IF THE CLOUDS HANG ON LONGER THAN EXPECTED.
/issued 134 PM CDT MON AUG 10 2015/ The pesky upper ridge centered over the Southern Plains will begin to slowly slide west over the next few days. There will not be much in terms of rain chances tonight except for a few isolated storms across portions of Eddy and Lea County and the higher terrain. We will see temperatures drop a few degrees as the ridge begins to slide a little further west and a cold front moves south across West Texas and Southeast New Mexico by midweek. By the end of the week the ridge will strengthen a little bit over New Mexico, but will put us under northeast flow aloft and cooler 850 mb temperatures will help keep highs in the mid to upper 90s.
A BIT WARMER THAN YESTERDAY WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60. DEW POINTS REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. THE LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE PRESENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING NORTH FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND ONTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS OF SASKATCHEWAN/ALBERTA. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE PERIODIC CHANCES OF QPF AS DISTURBANCES RIDE ATOP THE RIDGE. HOWEVER THE GREATEST CHANCES LOOK TO REMAIN NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF EASTERN COLORADO/WYOMING AND THE WESTERN PANHANDLE.
AN APPROACHING INVERTED TROUGH. WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS WESTWARD TOWARD THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY TODAY ON THE SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE WELL ADVERTISED UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED ACROSS THE HEART OF THE LONE STAR STATE. ENERGY FROM A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES WILL MOVE INTO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AS UPPER RIDGING RETROGRADES NORTHWEST TOWARD THE SOUTH PLAINS AND PANHANDLE REGIONS. TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT INDICES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE A THREAT AS THE EASTERN EXTENT OF STUBBORN THERMAL RIDGING HOLDS STRONG INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY.
OVERNIGHT TO MORNING CLOUD COVER AND PATCHY FOG IN ASSOCIATION WITH A DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BECOME CONFINED TO SOME COASTAL LOCATIONS FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
645 AM EDT TUE AUG 11 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES AND EXTENDS INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL START TO BUILD INTO THE EASTERN CONUS WITH A COLD FRONT BUILDING INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. 8 INCHES AND THE LOW TO MID LEVEL WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWESTERLY WHICH WILL FAVOR AFTERNOON NUMEROUS SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND EASTERN HALF OF THE PENINSULA. THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATES THAT THE LARGE AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE TO ERODE THE WEAK RIDGE ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO APPROACH NORTH FLORIDA AND THE NORTHERN GULF MAINTAINING DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL FLORIDA.
853 PM MST WED FEB 10 2016 A HUGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE GREAT BASIN WITH EASTERN UT AND WESTERN CO UNDER NW FLOW ALONG ITS EASTERN SIDE. A WEEK UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE PASSING OVER AND THROUGH THE RIDGE THIS EVENING AND SPREAD SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE AREA. THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED WESTERN RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BE BATTERED BY PACIFIC ENERGY ON THURSDAY. THIS RIDGE WILL BE ABLE TO HOLD STRONG THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT. THE MAIN IMPACT DOWNSTREAM WILL BE FROM MOISTURE SURVIVING THE TRIP OVER THE APEX OF THE RIDGE AND FLOWING INTO THE ROCKIES AS HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS.
WITH BELOW FREEZING TEMPS OVERNIGHT WILL LIKELY NEED THE SPS TO CONTINUE AS ROADS SHOULD REMAIN SLICK IN AREAS THROUGH THE NIGHT. TEMPS SHOULD WARM UP ABOVE FREEZING TOMORROW AND HELP IMPROVE ROAD CONDITIONS ACROSS THE MID STATE.
Further to the southwest, moderate mixing down of 850 mb temperatures have led to gusty southwest winds advecting much warmer temperatures into eastern Kansas and western Missouri.
IN COMBINATION WITH EASTERLY WINDS COULD CAUSE AREAS OF FOG AND PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THE WESTERN CWA TONIGHT. BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE SNOW WHERE ICE COULD BE LOST IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE WHICH COULD CAUSE FREEZING DRIZZLE ISSUES.
VEERING WESTWARD ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL ARRIVE AROUND MIDDAY AT TXK/ELD AND THEN MID TO LATE AFTERNOON ALONG THE I-20 TERMINALS. A WEAK BACK-DOOR COLD FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY THIS LOW AS IT MOVES OVHD THURSDAY. DESPITE THE COLD FRONT.
TO THE LOWER OR MID 20S IN THE EXTREME WEST. WITH THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL BOUNDARY IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SD.
356 PM MST WED FEB 10 2016 A HUGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE GREAT BASIN WITH EASTERN UT AND WESTERN CO UNDER NW FLOW ALONG ITS EASTERN SIDE. A WEEK UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE PASSING OVER AND THROUGH THE RIDGE THIS EVENING AND SPREAD SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE AREA. THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED WESTERN RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BE BATTERED BY PACIFIC ENERGY ON THURSDAY. THIS RIDGE WILL BE ABLE TO HOLD STRONG THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT. THE MAIN IMPACT DOWNSTREAM WILL BE FROM MOISTURE SURVIVING THE TRIP OVER THE APEX OF THE RIDGE AND FLOWING INTO THE ROCKIES AS HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS.
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE FROM THE WEST, BUT THE FEW HOURS OF SUNSHINE WE ENJOYED EARLIER TODAY ARE QUICKLY VANISHING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW FREEZING AGAIN TONIGHT, BUT MOST LOCATIONS WILL WARM CONSIDERABLY TOMORROW WITH ENOUGH SUNSHINE TO ALLOW FOR COPIOUS MELTING.
TONIGHT WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT. HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S ACROSS ALL AREAS EXCEPT THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND VICTORIA CROSSROADS.
HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL ONLY REACH INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S.