Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1110 AM MST Thu Mar 3 2022 Light easterly to southeasterly boundary layer flow persists across much of western South Dakota this morning, helping the low clouds and fog to persist. Water vapor shows upper ridge over the Northern Rockies building into the Northern Plains, with upper trof moving onshore the west coast. With thermal ridge just off to our west, temps will warm into the 60s for northeast WY, and 50s for the Black Hills into southwest SD. Large trof will evolve over the western CONUS with lead upper low/short wave ejecting to near the Four Corners by late afternoon. Dry conditions are expected during the day, but precip chances will increase dramatically overnight as upper low lifts into CO and deepens.
221 PM EST Thu Mar 3 2022 High pressure brings mainly dry conditions for the end of the work week.
1201 PM CST Thu Mar 3 2022 Low level cloud cover and some light fog moved in across the local area with a cold front overnight. Models eventually have the lower clouds that have encompassed the area this morning breaking up by afternoon. As this cold front lifts back north on Friday. As an upper level low across the desert southwest then lifts northeast across the four corners region and into the plains. but with the low intensifying to our northwest as it crosses the plains.
1029 AM MST Thu Mar 3 2022 Light easterly to southeasterly boundary layer flow persists across much of western South Dakota this morning, helping the low clouds and fog to persist a bit longer. Water vapor shows upper ridge over the Northern Rockies building into the Northern Plains, with upper trof moving onshore the west coast. With thermal ridge just off to our west, temps will warm into the 60s for northeast WY, and 50s for the Black Hills into southwest SD. Large trof will evolve over the western CONUS with lead upper low/short wave ejecting to near the Four Corners by late afternoon. Dry conditions are expected during the day, but precip chances will increase dramatically overnight as upper low lifts into CO and deepens.
225 PM EST Thu Mar 3 2022 Upper level ridging in the western Gulf of Mexico will traverse eastward through the week and become more amplified into the weekend. Sunny skies and mild temperatures in the low to mid 80s expected today, then heating up even more near 90 degrees in some areas to close out the week and into the weekend.
1128 AM MST Thu Mar 3 2022 Not much change to the forecast this morning and not too many issues for the first 24 hours as ridging will continue to control the weather across western and central Wyoming. Look for another day of 60s across many of the lower elevations East of the Divide. A few of the warmer spots may even make a run at the 70 degree mark. On Friday afternoon and evening the pattern will change notably as a large and complex longwave trough pushes eastward over the Rockies.
With clear skies, temperatures will range from the lower 30s north to the upper 30s south, which is close to the consensus of available guidance.
It's a very cold morning underneath this high pressure. Trimmed the advisory back in areas with light winds and "warmer" temperatures. Thermal profiles further south suggest the potential for freezing drizzle where the strongest warm air advection is, possibly mixing with some snow. Uncertainty is very high, but given the signal and potential impacts from freezing drizzle, it is worth some concern.
High pressure will build along the Atlantic states tonight with a light southerly flow picking up.
No major changes are planned to the current forecast, but will continue to monitor temperatures as they may be a touch on the high side with the persistent cloud cover. It still appears that Friday night we have about a 4kft thick status layer over the entire CWA with some very light ascent, no ice in the column and temperatures cooling or having cooled below freezing, and as such will maintain mention of freezing drizzle.
As ridging aloft continues, highs this afternoon will top out in the mid 70s to low 80s. The warmth will continue tomorrow with ridging still in place, and highs will again climb into the mid and upper 70s.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 76 45 71 51 75 / 0 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 72 42 71 48 75 / 0 0 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 72 41 70 48 74 / 0 0 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 68 37 67 44 72 / 0 0 0 0 0.
1212 PM CST Thu Mar 3 2022 Key Messages: - Confidence remains high for a short period freezing rain, mixed with sleet, rain or snow, will fall across mainly the eastern 1/3 of MPX CWA.
/issued 1119 AM CST Thu Mar 3 2022/ A back door cold front is pushing through the Mid-South this morning. Currently, a weak cold front remained just north of the Ohio Valley and into southern Missouri. The air behind the front is a little cooler so highs over this area will not be quite as warm as yesterday. As a result, no rain is expected and temperatures will remain well above normal with highs from the lower 70s to around 80 degrees.
314 PM EST Thu Mar 3 2022 Easterly winds continue across SFL this evening thanks to high pressure building into the area. On Friday, a deep-layer high pressure system situated over the SE CONUS will continue to dominate the weather pattern, with increasing breezy easterly flow, warming temperatures and generally dry conditions. Temperatures in the short term period are just near or above normal for this time of year, with highs generally in the low-mid 80s and overnight lows in the 60s. Gusty easterly winds, warming temperatures and hazardous beach/marine conditions will continue to be possible through the weekend as the high pressure system deepens and settles over the area. The high pressure system will start eroding as a weak frontal system approaches South Florida early in the workweek.
1119 AM CST Thu Mar 3 2022 A back door cold front is pushing through the Mid-South this morning. Currently, a weak cold front remained just north of the Ohio Valley and into southern Missouri. The air behind the front is a little cooler so highs over this area will not be quite as warm as yesterday. As a result, no rain is expected and temperatures will remain well above normal with highs from the lower 70s to around 80 degrees.
Upper level analysis places modest ridge to the east of the Rockies, and low off the California coast. Upper ridge shifts east by early Friday, with flow becoming southwesterly as California low works its way into the desert southwest. Taking a look at forecast soundings, there still appears to be a risk of freezing drizzle developing over the area, which has been previously discussed.
There is still a high degree of uncertainty whether there may be some freezing drizzle Friday afternoon into Friday night. There is some upslope flow from the east-southeast winds, but will have to see if the low stratus deck can develop. Best chances for impactful weather come Sat afternoon and night, with light snow and the possibility for some freezing rain south.
306 PM EST Thu Mar 3 2022 High pressure north of the region will track southeast overnight.
253 PM EST Thu Mar 3 2022 High pressure north of the region will track southeast overnight.
/issued 403 AM CST Thu Mar 3 2022/ High pressure centered pretty much right over our CWA. Cold front well to the north, north of the Ohio River around Interstate 70. Aloft, ridging over the Rockies and troughing over New England and off of the Pacific Coast.
923 AM MST Thu Mar 3 2022 Areas of rain, snow, and freezing rain will continue to affect North Central Montana today.
Incoming dry cold front will pass through all terminals this evening and tonight, and have weak wind shift noted. CD Chattanooga Airport, TN 45 71 51 75 58 / 0 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 42 71 48 75 58 / 0 0 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 41 70 48 74 58 / 0 0 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 37 67 44 72 53 / 0 0 0 0 0.
The drier air entraining in from high pressure in the east has really undercut llm availability. With the poor model performance on QPF and llm on today's system, it lends lower confidence to the possibility of freezing drizzle on Friday. Warm air advection will push into the region tonight and Friday ahead of low pressure moving into Nebraska.
We'll be even warmer Friday afternoon as the upper ridge starts to move eastward over the region.
Despitethe cloudiness, we will see temperatures warm into the lower 70s to lower 80s on Friday.
246 PM CST Thu Mar 3 2022 Today: Weather will be pretty quiet today with notably cooler temperatures expected compared to yesterday. Under the influence of high pressure to the north, winds are expected to remain out of the east for much of the day. Friday: Upper ridging will shift into the area for Friday allowing winds to turn back to the south and draw in some warmer temperatures.
1134 AM CST Thu Mar 3 2022 (Today and tonight) Short wave ridging aloft will dominate Oklahoma's weather through tonight. At the surface, a lee trough over eastern Colorado and New Mexico will continue to strengthen and increase south winds in western Oklahoma today.
908 AM MST Thu Mar 3 2022 Light easterly to southeasterly boundary layer flow persists across much of western South Dakota this morning, helping the low clouds and fog to persist a bit longer. Water vapor shows upper ridge over the Northern Rockies building into the Northern Plains, with upper trof moving onshore the west coast. With thermal ridge just off to our west, temps will warm into the 60s for northeast WY, and 50s for the Black Hills into southwest SD. Large trof will evolve over the western CONUS with lead upper low/short wave ejecting to near the Four Corners by late afternoon. Dry conditions are expected during the day, but precip chances will increase dramatically overnight as upper low lifts into CO and deepens.
228 PM CST Thu Mar 3 2022 A weak cold front will slide southward into the TN Valley this evening, weakening the high pressure in place and providing a short lived northerly flow. Will see only a few clouds tonight and temps quickly falling after sunset, reaching the low/mid 40s overnight. Highs will reach the mid to upper 70s, maybe the lower 80s. Cloud cover will keep overnight lows mild in the lower 50s.
107 PM MST Thu Mar 3 2022 Light easterly to southeasterly boundary layer flow persists across much of western South Dakota this morning, helping the low clouds and fog to persist. Water vapor shows upper ridge over the Northern Rockies building into the Northern Plains, with upper trof moving onshore the west coast. With thermal ridge just off to our west, temps will warm into the 60s for northeast WY, and 50s for the Black Hills into southwest SD. Large trof will evolve over the western CONUS with lead upper low/short wave ejecting to near the Four Corners by late afternoon. Dry conditions are expected during the day, but precip chances will increase dramatically overnight as upper low lifts into CO and deepens.
1106 AM CST Thu Mar 3 2022 As expected, early morning mesoanalysis shows a pronounced area of 750:700 mb frontogenesis running from roughly Mobridge to Brookings to Fort Dodge. After snow ends, a much cooler day is in store with an easterly component to the surface winds. Quiet conditions should continue through tonight as brief mid level ridging swings overhead. Temperature forecast will be a bit of a headache as there remains a good amount of uncertainty on the extent of the northward push of warmer air. Have generally played temperatures on the warmer side but still some risk of freezing drizzle across roughly the northwest third of our FA.
This will result in increasing southerly winds by mid-morning, and as the main upper trough reaches the desert southwest, breezy surface winds expand towards central Oklahoma by mid-day. Despite the increase in surface moisture (minimum RH values in the low 30s), very dry vegetation and south winds gusting to 35 mph will contribute to elevated fire weather conditions across parts of northwest Oklahoma.
This inversion is in response to an elongated area of high pressure and associated ridge centered over the Southeast. Northeasterly winds have slackened since yesterday at this time, owed to the eastward progression of the high as well as the continued departure of a trough in the Atlantic. Skies are mostly sunny at most island communities, with KBYX radar only detecting a few isolated showers in the outer Straits of Florida southwest of the Lower Keys. From synopsis, elongated high pressure over the Gulf Coast states will result in moderate northeast to east breezes through tonight. A second, much stronger area of high pressure will build across the Southeast and then slide southeastward into the western Atlantic.
354 PM EST Thu Mar 3 2022 High pressure builds into the area tonight and Friday before sliding off the coast over the weekend.
147 PM MST Thu Mar 3 2022 Areas of rain, snow, and freezing rain along with low clouds and fog will redevelop across North Central Montana this evening.
Latest guidance is beginning to hint at a slight chance of perception from weak elevated convection east of the dryline in the southern South Plains and southern Rolling Plains where the best surface moisture convergence and lift will reside along with dewpoints that struggle to climb into the low 50s. A dryline is still expected to push eastward across the region late tomorrow night as an upper trough approaches from the Four Corners.
1256 PM EST Thu Mar 3 2022 Aviation - Weekend low pressure system - A low pressure system over the central Plains states will strengthen as it moves east northeast to near Sault St.
An upper trough will move inland tonight. Another trough will move over Oregon and northern California on Friday. An upper ridge just offshore will give Western Washington dry, northerly flow through the weekend.
146 PM MST Thu Mar 3 2022 For the third day in a row, high pressure heavily influences the weather across western and central WY, although the upper-level ridge axis has moved to the east over the WY/NE/SD border. At the same time, a surface cold front will start pushing into the Big Horn Basin and Johnson County.
But low level moisture will increase leading to areas of low clouds that will be on the low side of MVFR or high side of IFR for both KLBB and KPVW arriving near daybreak Friday and persisting through much of Friday morning before breaking up. Latest guidance is beginning to hint at a slight chance of precipitation from weak elevated convection east of the dryline in the southern South Plains and southern Rolling Plains where the best surface moisture convergence and lift will reside along with dewpoints that struggle to climb into the low 50s. A dryline is still expected to push eastward across the region late tomorrow night as an upper trough approaches from the Four Corners.
537 PM CST Thu Mar 3 2022 Today: Weather will be pretty quiet today with notably cooler temperatures expected compared to yesterday. Under the influence of high pressure to the north, winds are expected to remain out of the east for much of the day. Friday: Upper ridging will shift into the area for Friday allowing winds to turn back to the south and draw in some warmer temperatures.
This will aid in pushing our thermal ridge across El Paso today into our neck of the woods tomorrow. Winds will be elevated out west with the encroachment of our western trough as the leading edge of a mid- level speed max bisects the far NW corner of the CWA.
/issued 315 PM CST Thu Mar 3 2022/ A backdoor cold front continues to move southward across the Mid-South this afternoon.
The high will be centered across the mid-Atlantic on Friday with ridging down the Apalachians.
537 PM CST Thu Mar 3 2022 High pressure is over the area at this time. This high will slide slowly east Friday.
Winds have generally switched to a mostly northeast direction behind this dry cold front. A dry cold front will pass through the terminals this evening and overnight, and there will be a weak wind shift.
High pressure remains over the area with above normal to near record high temperatures through the weekend. Expect lows tonight from the lower 50s over parts of the Nature Coast to the lower 60s coastal and south before warming into the mid 80s Fri afternoon with pockets of upper 80s likely. /issued 225 PM EST Thu Mar 3 2022/ Upper level ridging in the western Gulf of Mexico will traverse eastward through the week and become more amplified into the weekend. Sunny skies and mild temperatures in the low to mid 80s expected today, then heating up even more near 90 degrees in some areas to close out the week and into the weekend.
Road temperatures remain at-or-slightly above freezing, which could also lead to isolated patches of black ice in shaded areas, so keep this in mind Friday morning as well.
601 PM EST Thu Mar 3 2022 High pressure north of the region will track southeast overnight.
By Friday, onshore flow will continue to increase, so daytime highs will be a few degrees warmer and in the upper 70s while low level cloud cover will also increase. Overnight lows tomorrow night will only cool down to the lower 60s.
Expect much warmer than normal temperatures today along with a chance for light showers in Cochise County and along the AZ/NM border this evening and tonight. It's another much warmer than normal day across southeast Arizona. Moisture is starting to move into Cochise County as evidenced by the cloud cover thanks to a trough off the coast of California. This will be the first of a series of troughs that will impact the region this weekend. Friday the trough off the coast of California moves through Arizona bringing gusty southwesterly winds area wide.
Not confident that the high clouds will make much of a difference. Given performance of past 2 nights, have elected to go with cooler NBM25.
This has kept persistent mid cloudiness across much of the northern 1/3-1/2 of our service area, and when combined with northeast winds has limited temps into the lower to mid 30s. Between more bouts of clouds and some insulation north and warmer temps this afternoon south should result in fairly uniform lows in the mid/upper 20s. Friday, winds will increase from the southeast becoming gusty at times by afternoon as low pressure develops in the central Plains. This should usher in warmer air, and despite a good amount of high cloudiness, we should see a modest uptick in highs ranging from the mid 40s north to the mid 50s south.
Soundings indicate that near-surface temperatures may become below-freezing, and with dry air aloft still, showcase a very small chance for freezing drizzle to occur. While confidence is low for it to occur, impacts would include areas of icy surfaces, especially on Bridges, occurring Friday morning, including in Billings. An extremely small chance for freezing rain is present before the onset of snow, as indicated by small probabilities given by ensembles, and lingering warm air at low levels.
351 PM MST Thu Mar 3 2022 For the third day in a row, high pressure heavily influences the weather across western and central WY, although the upper-level ridge axis has moved to the east over the WY/NE/SD border. At the same time, a surface cold front will start pushing into the Big Horn Basin and Johnson County.
413 PM MST Thu Mar 3 2022 Latest upper level analysis has broad ridging across the Rockies, with large trof over the eastern CONUS. At the surface, arctic high pressure resides across eastern North Dakota and northern Minnesota, with frontal boundary lying just east of the Rockies. Moist southeasterly boundary layer flow across the South Dakota plains will maintain or even help expand the low clouds and fog currently across the area. This will allow winds to swing around to a more northerly direction, and help push the low clouds and fog off to the east. Dry conditions are expected during the day, but precip chances will increase Friday night as an upper low lifts into Colorado.
Did add some fog across the higher terrain of the southwest where the HRRR and RAP indicate some development tonight into Friday morning. Upper level analysis places modest ridge to the east of the Rockies, and low off the California coast. Upper ridge shifts east by early Friday, with flow becoming southwesterly as California low works its way into the desert southwest. Taking a look at forecast soundings, there still appears to be a risk of freezing drizzle developing over the area, which has been previously discussed.
Areas of rain, snow, and freezing rain along with low clouds and fog will redevelop across North Central Montana this evening.
951 PM EST Thu Mar 3 2022 High pressure north of the region will track southeast overnight.
912 PM EST Thu Mar 3 2022 High pressure brings mainly dry conditions for the end of the work week.
Latest guidance is beginning to hint at a slight chance of precipitation from weak elevated convection east of the dryline in the southern South Plains and southern Rolling Plains where the best surface moisture convergence and lift will reside along with dewpoints that struggle to climb into the low 50s. A dryline is still expected to push eastward across the region late tomorrow night as an upper trough approaches from the Four Corners.
Despite the cloudiness, we will see temperatures warm into the lower 70s to lower 80s on Friday.
A weak cold front will slide southward into the TN Valley this evening, weakening the high pressure in place and providing a short lived northerly flow. Will see only a few clouds tonight and temps quickly falling after sunset, reaching the low/mid 40s overnight. Highs will reach the mid to upper 70s, maybe the lower 80s. Cloud cover will keep overnight lows mild in the lower 50s.
315 PM CST Thu Mar 3 2022 A backdoor cold front continues to move southward across the Mid-South this afternoon.
/issued 225 PM EST Thu Mar 3 2022/ Upper level ridging in the western Gulf of Mexico will traverse eastward through the week and become more amplified into the weekend. Sunny skies and mild temperatures in the low to mid 80s expected today, then heating up even more near 90 degrees in some areas to close out the week and into the weekend.
234 PM MST Thu Mar 3 2022 Latest upper level analysis has broad ridging across the Rockies, with large trof over the eastern CONUS. At the surface, arctic high pressure resides across eastern North Dakota and northern Minnesota, with frontal boundary lying just east of the Rockies. Moist southeasterly boundary layer flow across the South Dakota plains will maintain or even help expand the low clouds and fog currently across the area. This will allow winds to swing around to a more northerly direction, and help push the low clouds and fog off to the east. Dry conditions are expected during the day, but precip chances will increase Friday night as an upper low lifts into Colorado.
Easterly winds continue across SFL this evening thanks to high pressure building into the area. On Friday, a deep-layer high pressure system situated over the SE CONUS will continue to dominate the weather pattern, with increasing breezy easterly flow, warming temperatures and generally dry conditions. Temperatures in the short term period are just near or above normal for this time of year, with highs generally in the low-mid 80s and overnight lows in the 60s. Gusty easterly winds, warming temperatures and hazardous beach/marine conditions will continue to be possible through the weekend as the high pressure system deepens and settles over the area. The high pressure system will start eroding as a weak frontal system approaches South Florida early in the workweek.
The first in a series of low pressure systems will cross the area late tonight through Friday morning.
830 PM EST Thu Mar 3 2022 High pressure will build overhead this evening and remain nearby through most of this weekend.
625 PM EST Thu Mar 3 2022 High pressure brings mainly dry conditions for the end of the work week.
The ridge that has dominated the forecast for the last few days will continue its slow shift east tonight and Friday.
303 AM EST Fri Mar 4 2022 Discussion/Marine - Becoming windy this weekend - A low pressure system over the Central Plains Saturday morning will strengthen as it moves ene to around 990 mb near SSM by 12Z Sun. Kinematics look favorable for gusty showers/embedded storms Saturday night along/ahead of the cold front due to a 50-60 kt llj.