Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Beneath the high clouds, a dry airmass exists, thus, I do not expect any rainfall to spread back into our CWA today. The thin high cloud cover will help keep us from warming too much today, and with that, I've gone directly in the mean NBM spread, which is the lower 60s north to mid 60s central and south. Tonight, with high cloud cover still spreading over the region, but some clearing in the north and east at times, lows in the lower 40s northeast to near 50 southwest are forecast.
224 AM CDT Thu Sep 22 2022 A refreshing change in air mass has been ushered in by yesterday's cold front, which as of 2AM was nearing Memphis, TN. We expect some showers, mainly in the northern part of the forecast area as this trough axis swings by. But moisture will be limited as this wave is largely continuing with its remnant Pacific moisture, with Gulf Moisture not having enough time to link up with it after the recent cold front. Kimble Low level flow shifts southwesterly ahead of the cold front associated with the upper trough. This will bring warmer temperatures back into the region, warming temperatures back into the 80s. But this won't last very long, as the cold front brings the cooler air back in pretty quickly.
- Even cooler Friday with occasional light rain. High pressure will shift east to the Great Lakes tonight. The upper level low will head east and spread rain into western MN late tonight, then eastern MN Friday morning and western WI Friday afternoon.
1255 AM EDT Thu Sep 22 2022 Scattered shower and storms are likely overnight along and ahead of an advancing cold front. This area will be followed by additional convection overnight moving in from the northwest as a cold front crosses the region. Radiational cooling will be optimized tonight as wind slackens and sky clears, leading to overnight minima some 10F below seasonal normal, and into the 30s in the ridges. Friday will be defined by clear and cool conditions amid high pressure.
Another round of showers and thunderstorms will return this afternoon, combining the upper diffluence ahead of the low and daytime heating. The focus again will be on the northwestern areas, especially the higher elevations with added orographic lift. By sunrise Friday, the low will be generally across northwest North Dakota, with drier air quickly drawing in the backside of the low late tonight, putting an end to precip. This will also bring clearing late, allowing temps to drop again, with freezing levels reaching the valley floors of Jackson Hole and Star Valley.
1151 PM CDT Wed Sep 21 2022 Updated for 00Z Aviation Discussion (This evening through Thursday night) Not a lot of change in thinking for the short term forecast as we remain in a high pressure and ridging pattern through the period. We reached the low to mid 90s in the majority of the CWA today. This will bring the higher winds of 10-15 kt back into the coastal area, especially areas behind the boundary.
Upper low is currently over eastern Oregon and will lift across northern Idaho into Montana throughout the day. With the continued influence of the upper low today, some showers and isolated thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and into the evening. Likewise, the lower windspeed threshold makes it likely the American Falls Reservoir will see Lake Wind conditions this afternoon as well. The low will finally exit the area Friday night, and take the precip along with it.
Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb closed low in the Pacific NW, a ridge over the southern plains and a trough over the lower Great Lakes 12z Thu. Troughing moves into the northern plains 12z Fri and into the upper Great Lakes Fri night lasting into Sat. In the extended, the GFS and ECMWF show a 500 mb ridge over the western U. and a broad trough over the eastern U. Upper level pattern changes little on Mon and Tue except amplifies the trough over the ern U. A big difference shows up on Wed with the Canadian and ECMWF showing a amplified 500 mb trough still remaining over the ern U. while the GFS is more progressive and has the trough in the Canadian Maritimes.
(Today and tonight) A weak cold front is dropping south across the South Plains early this morning, and will settle into West Central Texas today. May see slightly cooler temperatures across the area north of I-20 this afternoon, but little effect elsewhere. Still looking at highs in the low to mid 90s.
245 AM CDT Thu Sep 22 2022 The anticipated cold front has cleared central IL, leaving cool, dry air in place for today. We'll see temperatures about 10 degrees cooler than normal today and about 15 degrees cooler than normal on Friday.
Cold front moves through the area late this morning and early afternoon. The large scale ascent with the associated upper trough will be across the northeast and mid-atlantic with very limited support or the area. Cooler and drier Friday after passage of a cold front.
Much cooler today with lingerings showers and clouds.
(Today and tonight) A cold front has entered northern Oklahoma and will continue to progress southward through the night into the morning. Farther south, however, cooling will not be as strong and skies will remain mostly clear under the influence of the upper high over central Texas.
Meanwhile we are watching another trough that will move across the area tonight and early Friday. Currently, this trough is extending from a low pressure area over western Montana. As this low moves east into eastern Montana and the northern Dakotas, the trough will also move east over our area and bring another round of rain and possibly an isolated thunderstorm or two tonight into early Friday.
445 AM EDT Thu Sep 22 2022 (Today through Friday) High pressure over the area has weakened as a cold front is nearing the area from the North. This cold front will usher in a much cooler airmass with low temps expected in the 50s to lower 60s Friday morning.
1119 PM CDT Wed Sep 21 2022 (This evening through Thursday Night) A mid to upper level ridge will remain centered over Texas through the short term, leading to mostly clear skies and warm temperatures. With clear skies tonight and tomorrow night, temps will cool down efficiently with lows reaching the low 70s outside of the Houston- metro area and mid to upper 70s across Houston and along the coast.
145 AM EDT Thu Sep 22 2022 Scattered thunderstorms are possible this evening in association with a cold front. Strong high pressure will follow the front Thursday and Friday with much cooler weather. Cold front bisecting the area will continue to push south and east through the early morning hours. Still could see some showers develop ahead of the cold front in southeast counties. High pressure of Canadian origin will continue to build southward into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley on Friday. Highs will range from the lower 60s north to the upper 60s south.
(Today and tonight) A cold front was making its way through the region early this morning. The cold front will result in lower thickness values for today and cooler easterly winds. Temperatures will be a few degrees cooler this afternoon with this front. Otherwise, not much will be different in the upper pattern locally with an upper ridge centered over central Texas.
355 AM CDT Thu Sep 22 2022 (Issued 355 AM CDT Thu Sep 22 2022) Today through Friday: Pressure heights will gradually increase and the pressure gradient weaken as an upper level ridge moves over the area. With high pressure building into the area tonight winds will become light and skies will be clear. High pressure will move east of the area Friday bringing the return of southerly flow.
424 AM EDT Thu Sep 22 2022 Notably cooler air will begin to overspread the area today with temperatures that will be well below normal through Friday night. The cooler air will support some lake effect rain showers and possibly some frost Friday night. Strong cold front has just about made it through the entire area early this morning. It will be notably cooler behind the front today.
- Cooler through Friday, then closer to average for this time of year.
The region sits on the northeast corner of a 594+ dm 500mb ridge amid nearly full sun, with just a few cumulus clouds bubbling in the heat. Relief is not far away however as a surface cold front, currently approaching the St. Due to several days of subsidence under the ridge lower level moisture profiles look quite dry and it looks like significant precip will be pretty hard to come by with this frontal passage. Winds will shift back to the east Friday as surface ridging builds over IN/MI.
and Friday Much cooler temperatures and frost/freeze potential tonight will be the main forecast concerns. The precipitation potential will end as Canadian high pressure builds into the region. Brisk north winds will continue this morning, then subside as the high arrives in the afternoon. On Friday, high pressure will shift east, with developing return flow and WAA resulting in increasing afternoon cloudiness and a small chance of showers in central WI late.
In this cloud band temps holding 45 to 50, but once it clears temps drop off into the low 40s.
1208 AM CDT Thu Sep 22 2022 (The rest of tonight) Cold front is progressing south as expected this evening, and at 930 PM was roughly along a Grove to Ralston line in NE OK.
Another round of showers is possible Friday morning as a trough swings through the central Plains.
102 AM CDT Thu Sep 22 2022 (This evening through Thursday night) Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop along a slow- moving cold front across the Oklahoma Panhandle and the northern Texas Panhandle this afternoon into this evening. The cold front will continue to move slowly south this evening and should be south of the Texas Panhandle late tonight.
Friday: Precipitation chances enter the forecast area from the west Friday morning on the nose of an upper level jet streak and phasing closed low trough. As the trough phases primary precipitation chances lift through the northern parts of the forecast area into the evening. Heaviest rainfall expected Friday night as meager southerly low level moisture transport peaks, collocated with low level frontogenetical bands downstream of the low level trough axis.
1043 PM CDT Wed Sep 21 2022 Key Messages: - Cooler to End the Week/Frost-Freeze potential Friday Morning - Rain chances Return Friday and Linger for Some Into the Weekend Tonight-Thursday. Cooler air continues to filter across the Upper Midwest in the wake of last night's cold frontal passage, providing a stark change from yesterday's very warm, humid airmass. Water vapor satellite imagery/heights have a closed low over northern California/Oregon with some lightning noted in the southeast quadrant of the low.
(Today) The wind shift associated with the cold front is pushing near the I-40 corridor early this morning with the surge of cooler air lagging somewhat behind wind boundary. The isolated showers and increased cloud cover through the day will help keep temps quite cool along and north of the Highway 412 corridor this afternoon. A sharp gradient in temperatures is expected clouds will be more scattered south of the Highway 412 corridor with mostly 70s to the north and warming into the mid to upper 80s south where mostly full sun is expected.
Cooler with some lingering breezy winds across the north, although much lighter than yesterday. Expect more northwesterly flow aloft today as the upper low quickly pushes northeast into the northern Rockies and High Plains. With the clear skies and light winds tonight, chilly temps expected with lows in the lower 30s to lower 40s. Warning trend begins as well as ridging begins to build over the southwest. Slightly warmer Friday night as well with lows in the upper 30s to upper 40s.
Now another cold front is poised to bring some relief to the state. Temperatures will be topping out only in the mid 70's across northern Arkansas tomorrow, but with cooler air lagging behind the initial wind-shift boundary, temperatures will likely make it into the 90's across the southern half of Arkansas tomorrow.
1218 AM CDT Thu Sep 22 2022 (This evening through Thursday) A dome of high pressure aloft continues to result in warm and relatively humid conditions across the forecast area. That front is expected to stall as it loses impetus as the main upper trough driving it southward is well to the northeast and as the front undercuts the strong upper level ridge.
(Today through Friday) Surface observations show weak high pressure is currently in place across south central Texas, with a cold front noted over the Texas panhandle. It will be very warm again on Friday, with highs ranging from the lower 90s to near 100 degrees.
1100 PM CDT Wed Sep 21 2022 The long anticipated cold front has finally begun its push through the Mid-Mississippi Valley and is currently draped from roughly the Lake of the Ozarks through Springfield, IL. Afternoon temperatures for areas along and north of the front have been notably cooler than the last several days, while areas to the south have again seen abnormally warm temperatures, well into the 90s. This will obviously bring much cooler temperatures to the region on breezy northerly post-frontal winds. This will be nearly 30 degrees cooler than what we've seen the last few days and about 10 degrees below seasonal norms.
549 AM CDT Thu Sep 22 2022 (Today through Friday) As depicted by KOHX radar during these early morning hours, surface cold front has pushed into northwest portions of mid state region. Surface cold front will continue progressing southeastward as remainder of early morning hours progress. As apex of above mentioned surface ridging builds southeastward into central Great Lakes Region by shortly after sunrise on Friday, with its broad influences being felt as far south as the deep south, lows tonight will be quite seasonably cool.
553 AM CDT Thu Sep 22 2022 The anticipated cold front has cleared central IL, leaving cool, dry air in place for today. We'll see temperatures about 10 degrees cooler than normal today and about 15 degrees cooler than normal on Friday.
ABR still in the lower 40s currently, but examination of obs across northern SD shows some locations have dropped into the 34 to 36 degree range, all within the current Frost Advisory. Turning to winds, we'll see south-southeast winds increase throughout the day as the high shifts off to the east.
533 AM MDT Thu Sep 22 2022 Showers beginning to move into the southwest zones early this morning with stacked low pressure over the northern Rockies. Showers will continue to rotate northward as the low moves slowly east through the day. Southeast winds also already increasing with the low spinning up, so Lake Wind Advisory looks on track. A few lingering showers are possible on the back side of the low on Friday. Otherwise upper ridge will be building back over the west through the weekend for warming temperatures and dry weather.
313 AM MDT Thu Sep 22 2022 Upper level high over Texas will shift westward today. Still may see drizzle out of the low clouds and a few stray showers. Due to the clearing and moist low levels from the recent rainfall, could see fog in the low lying areas north of Denver. 500-700mb wind speeds increase near 50-60kts mainly near the Cheyenne Ridge Friday morning.
The lower conditions will mostly dissipate by Thursday afternoon, except over the coastal waters, where they may persist through Thursday night. A short wave ridge is now building into the area, and this will be reinforced this weekend by stronger ridging moving up from the south.
In addition, temperatures across the Mid- South are about 15-20 degrees cooler than yesterday.
550 AM CDT Thu Sep 22 2022 The persistent high pressure just west of the ArkLaMiss region will continue to create above normal temperatures across the forecast area. With high pressure becoming less intense as a front approaches from the north, highs reaching the lower 100s will be more isolated, but still possible for some areas in the Delta. By this evening, a broad upper trough with a low pressure near the Great Lakes region will allow for a surface front to impact the region overnight. Overnight lows are expected to range in the lower to middle 60s north of I-20, while areas along and south of I-20 dip into the middle to upper 60s.
Temperatures across the rest of the Keys have remained in the lower 80s to near 80 degrees. The lower-levels will begin to dry out in earnest on Friday due to a ribbon of drier air preceding a cold front that will drop all the way into Central and parts of South Florida. By the weekend, ridging will build back into the region and freshening easterly breezes are expected, which will aid in advecting in a more moist airmass.
High pressure builds across the region into the weekend with dry conditions and a gradual warming trend. Tonight, temperatures are in the 50s across the region, around 5 to 8 degrees cooler than 24 hours ago as we are on the backside (colder side) of the mid-level low pressure that is currently centered over eastern Oregon. Today marks the transition of our weather here in the Bay Area and Central Coast with clear skies and warmer temperatures on the way. Water vapor imagery nicely depicts high pressure centered around Texas which will start to spread west into our area, resulting in warmer and drier conditions.
(Now through Friday) Mid-level ridging centered over Texas will continue to provide subsidence across Deep South Texas through the period. At the surface, high pressure across the Gulf of Mexico will maintain light to moderate east to northeast winds across the region today into Friday. Both the GFS/ECMWF hint at some vorticity sliding along the southeastern side of the ridge over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico this afternoon. An inverted mid-level trough will track westward over the Bay of Campeche tonight and Friday. Highs today and Friday will range from the 80s at the beaches, the lower 90s near the coast and the mid to upper 90s farther inland.
1050 AM EDT Thu Sep 22 2022 Notably cooler air will begin to overspread the area today with temperatures that will be well below normal through Friday night. The cooler air will support some lake effect rain showers and possibly some frost Friday night. Post-frontal drying and subsidence has been evident this morning as the cold front from last night is pushing east of the area.
408 AM CDT Thu Sep 22 2022 The persistent high pressure just west of the ArkLaMiss region will continue to create above normal temperatures across the forecast area. With high pressure becoming less intense as a front approaches from the north, highs reaching the lower 100s will be more isolated, but still possible for some areas in the Delta. By this evening, a broad upper trough with a low pressure near the Great Lakes region will allow for a surface front to impact the region overnight. Overnight lows are expected to range in the lower to middle 60s north of I-20, while areas along and south of I-20 dip into the middle to upper 60s.
705 AM CDT Thu Sep 22 2022 High pressure over Devils Lake/Jamestown. Patchy fog has formed just prior to sunrise within the high ridge axis and a couple spots in MN. In this cloud band temps holding 45 to 50, but once it clears temps drop off into the low 40s.
622 AM CDT Thu Sep 22 2022 A refreshing change in air mass has been ushered in by yesterday's cold front, which as of 2AM was nearing Memphis, TN. We expect some showers, mainly in the northern part of the forecast area as this trough axis swings by. But moisture will be limited as this wave is largely continuing with its remnant Pacific moisture, with Gulf Moisture not having enough time to link up with it after the recent cold front. Kimble Low level flow shifts southwesterly ahead of the cold front associated with the upper trough. This will bring warmer temperatures back into the region, warming temperatures back into the 80s. But this won't last very long, as the cold front brings the cooler air back in pretty quickly.
633 AM CDT Thu Sep 22 2022 (Today through Friday) Surface observations show weak high pressure is currently in place across south central Texas, with a cold front noted over the Texas panhandle. It will be very warm again on Friday, with highs ranging from the lower 90s to near 100 degrees.
Mid-level high pressure begins to get squashed today as the closed low transitions from western Montana to southern-central Canada, forcing the ridge to weaken and shift eastward. The cold front has passed through the Panhandles this morning and left northerly flow in its wake. Surface winds won't stay northerly for long though as high pressure fills in and turns winds easterly to southeasterly through the afternoon.
PWATs will remain on the higher end today before decreasing by Friday and into the weekend. That and the help from some cooling aloft and extra forcing as a low pressure trough lifts into Montana and Wyoming, will lead to one more day of scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms. For Friday and through the weekend, expect a drying and warming trend as high pressure amplifies and strengthens across the West.
541 AM CDT Thu Sep 22 2022 (Today) The wind shift associated with the cold front is pushing near the I-40 corridor early this morning with the surge of cooler air lagging somewhat behind wind boundary. The isolated showers and increased cloud cover through the day will help keep temps quite cool along and north of the Highway 412 corridor this afternoon. A sharp gradient in temperatures is expected clouds will be more scattered south of the Highway 412 corridor with mostly 70s to the north and warming into the mid to upper 80s south where mostly full sun is expected.
454 AM MDT Thu Sep 22 2022 08z surface analysis had high pressure over the eastern Dakotas. Water vapour loop had upper low spinning over eastern OR, slowly moving eastward. Upper low the main weather maker in the short term. Today, upper low will move into central MT as low pressure develops in response over north-central WY. Left exit region of 110kt jet streak ahead of upper low will promote a northeast-moving band of 800-600mb theta-e advection resulting in broken area of showers/isolated TS this morning/early afternoon hours.
Much cooler today with lingering showers and clouds.
614 AM CDT Thu Sep 22 2022 (Today and tonight) A cold front was making its way through the region early this morning. The cold front will result in lower thickness values for today and cooler easterly winds. Temperatures will be a few degrees cooler this afternoon with this front. Otherwise, not much will be different in the upper pattern locally with an upper ridge centered over central Texas.
648 AM EDT Thu Sep 22 2022 Notably cooler air will begin to overspread the area today with temperatures that will be well below normal through Friday night. The cooler air will support some lake effect rain showers and possibly some frost Friday night. Strong cold front has just made it through the area this morning. It will be notably cooler behind the front today.
556 AM CDT Thu Sep 22 2022 (Today through Friday) An east to west oriented cold front will quickly surge south through the state today. This will lead to beautiful conditions on Friday with sunny skies, minimum relative humidity below 40%, and highs ranging from the lower 80s north to mid 80s south. 86/Martin Now that Fall is here, we will see several cold fronts move through during the extended.
(Today through Friday) High pressure over the area has weakened as a cold front is nearing the area from the North. This cold front will usher in a much cooler airmass with low temps expected in the 50s to lower 60s Friday morning.
529 AM MDT Thu Sep 22 2022 Upper level high over Texas will shift westward today. Still may see drizzle out of the low clouds and a few stray showers. Due to the clearing and moist low levels from the recent rainfall, could see fog in the low lying areas north of Denver. 500-700mb wind speeds increase near 50-60kts mainly near the Cheyenne Ridge Friday morning.
629 AM CDT Thu Sep 22 2022 (Today and tonight) A cold front has entered northern Oklahoma and will continue to progress southward through the night into the morning. Farther south, however, cooling will not be as strong and skies will remain mostly clear under the influence of the upper high over central Texas.