Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
All of this expected shower/storm activity will be aided by a large upper trough over the Deep South, greater than normal jet stream energy this far south/this time of year, increased moisture, surface heating and a weak cool frontal boundary just north of the area.
Cold front situated from near Jerome to Rome will continue to move south and reach the Nevada border by mid- afternoon. At 2 AM MDT dry cold front was evident on water vapor satellite imagery extending from near Great Falls, MT, through Ontario, OR, to Klamath Falls, OR, moving steadily southeast. Front will bring some clouds and a wind shift to west or northwest, followed by much cooler weather and stronger winds this afternoon. Aloft, a deep low in BC will move east across western Canada and the associated upper trough will overspread our area today through Thursday. A reinforcement from BC will deepen our trough and keep temps below normal Thursday.
1123 AM EDT Wed May 24 2017 An active day across the region as a surface cold front tracks toward the region from the west. Chattanooga Airport, TN 72 55 75 56 / 90 50 30 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 73 54 70 54 / 90 40 50 10 Oak Ridge, TN 72 54 71 55 / 90 40 40 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 73 53 64 52 / 90 60 70 30.
1049 AM CDT Wed May 24 2017 Latest model data shows that as closed upper low dives south southeastward, from Missouri into western Tennessee, area of deepest moisture lifts north northeastward. Presence of closed upper low in our vicinity will enhance the chance for at least small hail with just about any of the sturdier thunderstorms that develop today, with the potential for large hail in a few of them (especially over the east). Upper low looks to move north this afternoon, so cigs may improve to high MVFR and even VFR by late afternoon/evening.
630 AM CDT Wed May 24 2017 A mid/upper trough over the Upper Mississippi Valley area this morning is progged to dig south and southeast into the Lower Mississippi Valley area through the day. Meanwhile, high pressure at the surface will build across the Central Plains states.
An upper level low will continue passing to the north of the forecast area creating windy conditions through this evening along with cooler temperatures. The low will depart to the east tonight but leave the area under an upper level trough pattern in a northerly flow.
Clouds are expected to remain today into tonight, with some breaks possible Thursday as the low levels finally start drying out. Some fog may develop later tonight into Thursday morning, as winds weaken and moist air remains in the low levels.
1150 AM CDT Wed May 24 2017 Upper low continues to sink swd early this morning. As for temps, have trended twd cooler guidance for today expecting most breaks in clouds to fill in. Also trended cooler for tonight as well with the clouds breaking up as the ridge builds into the area. Highs will be in the low to mid 70s.
649 AM CDT Wed May 24 2017 Upper low continues to sink swd early this morning. As for temps, have trended twd cooler guidance for today expecting most breaks in clouds to fill in. Also trended cooler for tonight as well with the clouds breaking up as the ridge builds into the area. Highs will be in the low to mid 70s.
An upper level trough will continue to carve out over Washington and Oregon today. The upper trough will linger through Thursday with a slim threat of late day thunderstorms over the higher North Oregon and South Washington Cascades.
622 AM CDT Wed May 24 2017 WV imagery this morning showing an upper level closed low over the mid MS vly getting kicked eastward in response to a well amplified ridge extending from the from Great Basin into central Canada building into the Plains.
/issued 339 AM CDT Wed May 24 2017/ As upper trough leaves the plains look for high pressure ridge to build in from the west. This will result in warmer and drier conditions through the end of the week.
703 AM EDT Wed May 24 2017 High pressure will linger today, keeping the weather dry with a mix of sun and clouds.
1152 AM EDT Wed May 24 2017 Periods of wet weather with cooler-than-average temperatures will dampen the area for the second half of the week.
Following last evening's strong cold front, a much cooler air mass will reside over Western Washington today, with onshore flow aiding the development of a few showers, mainly over the mountains.
A rather trite forecast for the next 24 hours, as West Texas and Southeast New Mexico sit under NW flow aloft on the backside of an upper trough. Despite expected warmer wx, convective temps will remain too high for cu development. /issued 339 AM CDT Wed May 24 2017/ As upper trough leaves the plains look for high pressure ridge to build in from the west. This will result in warmer and drier conditions through the end of the week.
A low pressure system will bring strong winds across much of north central Montana today. with a cold front cooling temperatures to below normal readings for later today through Thursday.
Upper level ridge axis extended from southern MAN to WY. Satellite loop indicated cirrus was spilling over the ridge and over the forecast area. Water vapor loop indicated upper level ow pressure system was located over southern BC and southern ALTA with upper level jet rounding the base of the trough. Upper trough will move into southern SASK Wed night an rotate over southern SASK and southern MAN through 12Z Sat. Upper level low will send a cold front across the area Thu and produce showers. During the holiday weekend, the models are in good agreement that a strong mature low pressure system over Manitoba slowly meanders eastward toward the Great Lakes region.
721 AM EDT Wed May 24 2017 Periods of wet weather with cooler-than-average temperatures will dampen the area for the second half of the week.
Will be a warm, mostly sunny day with highs in the low 80s Plains, 60s to low 70s in the mountains and foothills. A sharp high pressure ridge will provide for a warm and dry day across the forecast area. 700 mb temps warming to +12C and downslope winds support highs pushing into the lower 80s along the Front Range. Don't expect anything more than scattered convective clouds this afternoon with the ridge axis and dry airmass overhead. Thursday will see a cold front move into northeast Colorado as a subtropical jet aloft spreads across the southern half of the state.
Strong high pressure aloft will maintain well above average temperatures today.
Also updated the forecast to account for lower dewpoint temperatures and relative humidity that had moved into/developed over the forecast area faster than expected due to strong subsidence behind the cold front.
Additional storms over the Fl panhandle will move into and strengthen over the area this afternoon as strong upper trough and surface cold front approaches from the west. Cold front will move across the area overnight with a lingering chance of showers and thunderstorms until around midnight.
724 AM EDT Wed May 24 2017 High pressure over the region will shift east today.
Surface wise, a western Atlantic ridge is aligned across the Straits of Florida with a trough extending from the extreme western Florida panhandle southward into the Gulf of Mexico. In addition, ahead of the approaching long wave trough in the Gulf of Mexico, scattered showers should migrate northward off the island of Cuba this afternoon and evening.
635 AM CDT Wed May 24 2017 The upper low will move south towards the Mid-Mississippi Valley today. As this occurs, upper level ridging will begin to approach from the west later today and tonight. NAM soundings show steep low-level lapse rates and with upper level cold pool still lingering across the area, a few showers will remain possible today, but coverage will be more spotty with decreasing influence from the upper low. Late this week through the Memorial Day weekend, an upper low initially centered over the southern Canadian prairies Thursday night will gradually sink south and eastward into the Great Lakes region through the weekend.
/issued 331 AM CDT Wed May 24 2017/ Cold front and associated showers and thunderstorms are located across the southeastern zones and will be for the most part exited the area by sunrise. In the wake of the front cooler and drier air is working into the region. High pressure will continue to build into the region today in the wake of a cold front that moved through the region overnight. resulting in cooler drier airmass with gusty north and northwesterly winds. Return flow begins on Thursday as the high shifts to the east resulting in increasing temperatures and humidity through the remainder of the week. In the wake of the cold front this mornings winds will be near 20 knots and gusts around 25 knots.
942 AM EDT Wed May 24 2017 Upper level low digs into the Tennessee Valley and brings chances of showers today through Thursday. Upper low will be overhead on Thursday with scattered showers expected.
322 AM PDT Sun Apr 23 2017 Onshore flow today will bring a return of the marine layer and coastal low clouds with several degrees of cooling except for the lower deserts.
405 AM CDT Sun Apr 23 2017 Temperatures are near the freezing mark over parts of the northwest South Plains and southern Panhandle early this morning and a Frost Advisory is in effect until 9 am for those areas. The southerly winds should hold up overnight tonight and as such overnight lows will be considerably warmer.
A cold front will continue to sag south today across northern Wisconsin/Minnesota. The main impact from the front across the area will be cooler temperatures mainly north of the Interstate 94 corridor. The cold front edging in from the north and a backdoor cold front edging in from the northeast. The dry airmass over the region and deep mixing will result in afternoon relative humidity values falling into the lower to middle 20s, producing some fire weather concerns. The frontal boundaries will merge and become a warm front late tonight into Monday and lift northward as low pressure deepens across South Dakota. The cold front then edges into the region from the west Monday night and stalls.
High pressure is centered over the Texas Panhandle this morning. The ridge will build east through today and become centered over our area by Monday Morning. By Monday Afternoon the ridge axis will shift east of the area allowing the return flow to begin.
An upper trough will be moving over south Florida today as an upper low pushes into the deep south tonight. The upper low will then move over GA/N FL Monday. At the surface, a weak trough will lift over south Florida today and bring a chance to likely rain chances across much of the area with the highest pops south and inland this afternoon. As the trough pushes east, a cold front will then approach the area from the NW. Temperatures will be in the mid to upper 80s this afternoon for highs and in the lower 60s to lower 70s for lows tonight. Highs Monday will be cooler behind the front in the upper 70s to lower 80s.
Clouds behind the cold front are finally giving way as drier air begins to move in behind the cold front which moved through the area yesterday morning.
/issued 839 PM EDT Sat Apr 22 2017/ The showers associated with an inverted trough sitting over southwest Florida have diminished over the past couple of hours. A cold front sweeps into the northeast/south-central Gulf Sun then across FL. High pressure builds back in for mid week with decreasing winds and seas.
Temps should rebound nicely today with most if not all of the high clouds sliding to the east. The upper low will deepen and cut off over the TN vly/SErn states through the short term period. It will push slowly north against the high pressure over ern Canada and the NE US. Maxes Monday will be warmer in the N than the S, running from m60s N to m50s S.
339 AM CDT Sun Apr 23 2017 Clouds have been slow to totally clear out of our forecast area, on the back side of upper low pressure system now in the Southeast.
604 AM EDT Sun Apr 23 2017 The persistent ridge of high pressure will hold over southern MI through the afternoon. Winds will be weak and westerly until a cold front drops through SE MI this evening (MBS) and overnight (Detroit area) switching winds from westerly to northeasterly. This system has effectively laid out a zonal cold frontal boundary across the northern shore of Lake Superior. This front will be the feature of interest today as it backdoors down the long axis lakes of Lake Michigan and Lake Huron with quiet surface ridging preceding its arrival over southeastern Michigan. The coldest of the marine air is forecasted to surge into the Port Huron area where it is certainly possible that temperatures could drop at least 20 degrees in a couple of hours, down into the lower 40s before 00Z.
Temperatures flirting with the freezing point will result in a possible widespread frost this morning. South winds returning this afternoon will allow temperatures to be back in the low 70s. Tuesdays highs will be a bit tricky as west to southwest flow will be over the area, but the upper level trough axis will be just west of the Panhandles and the heights will begin to fall. We may not reach full mixing if cooler air starts to funnel in sooner. Stable showers expected behind the cold front.
An upper level trough over the mid-mississippi valley will move into the Tennessee Valley Today and Tonight. A series of jet streaks moving around the trough will enhance strong divergence aloft over the southern Appalachians. An inverted trough will also develop across the area today due the jet dynamics producing low level forcing as well with isentropic lift developing. The closed upper low will move slowly across the southeast United States through Monday with a chance of showers over the far eastern Counties.
328 AM PDT Sun Apr 23 2017 Weak low pressure will bring breezy conditions today with light showers possible towards the Oregon border.
Elsewhere across the region, cold air aloft in proximity to the low will result in widespread cloud cover and cool temperatures. Ridging at the surface and aloft will help cloud cover dissipate from the west after sunset.
and Monday A back door cold front will continue making headway through Wisconsin today, assisted by Lake Michigan in producing what is known as a pneumonia front that will push through the lakeshore counties. With the quicker advance of the front sided with the cooler MET guidance with this forecast package as the previous forecast was counting on a later arrival of the front. The cold front may produce some light rain across north-central Wisconsin given better moisture. The front will lift back north as a warm front on Monday, bringing warm air and gusty southerly winds to the area as highs soar into the 60s away from the Great Lakes and far northern Wisconsin.
135 AM EDT Sun Apr 23 2017 An approaching low pressure system will slowly cross the region Sunday through Monday night bringing showers and thunderstorms.
249 AM CDT Sun Apr 23 2017 The upper level low responsible for the cool wet start to the weekend was positioned near northwest Tennessee early this morning. This low is forecast to continue on a very gradual southeastward track into the Tennessee Valley and southeastern U. As it does, a general trend towards decreasing clouds and warmer temperatures should progress northwest to southeast across the forecast area. However, clouds and the potential for scattered showers will likely persist over southeastern portions of the area today with wrap-around moisture and lift in the deformation zone north of the low. After a small chance of lingering showers in far southeastern portions of the area this evening, dry weather is expected through the remainder of the short term as a ridge of high pressure passes through.
Main concerns in this forecast cycle are first period chances of light rain and cooler temperatures. The northwest to north surface wind flow has brought much cooler temperatures to AR, and temperatures have only reached the 50s to 60s over most areas. Clearing skies Sunday night with again cooler temperatures with highs in the 70s.
This will continue this morning before drier air aloft moves into the CWA this afternoon as subsidence increases with northwest flow aloft as a 500mb ridge builds across the south-central United Stated today. Below normal temperatures will prevail across the area today through tonight as drier and slightly cooler air filters into the area this afternoon.
544 AM CDT Sun Apr 23 2017 High pressure will begin building into the region today resulting in sunny skies and dry conditions. That high pressure will build overhead tonight resulting in clear skies, light winds, and cool temperatures. Lows tonight should dip into the lower 40s.
A cold front has moved to the south and west of the forecast area this morning. The frontal boundary will be quasi-stationary over Central Montana today with a low pressure system over Wyoming. A tight pressure gradient between the low and high pressure over Manitoba will allow for gusty east winds over parts of Northeast Montana today. This trough and move across Eastern Montana this afternoon and tonight. Temperatures will be below freezing late tonight in some areas along and north of the Missouri River which will allow rain to change to snow. Will maintain a chance of light rain or snow in areas where temperatures will be near freezing.
1033 PM PDT Sat Apr 22 2017 Dry today then several Pacific storms move through bringing cooler temperatures and mainly light precipitation.
138 AM EDT Sun Apr 23 2017 A strengthening upper trough will move across the Tennessee valley today and tonight. Strong forcing along this trough will once again develop a good deal of convection later this morning through most of the forecast period.
We expect poorly-organized, narrow bands of SHRA/TSRA to develop along and immediately ahead of an advancing cold front, beginning at KDHN and KECP later this morning and early afternoon, then KABY, KTLH, and eventually KVLD this afternoon and evening. The 11 pm surface analysis showed a cold front extending from a 1010 mb frontal wave in northeast AL to southern TX. Upper air data showed a positive-tilt trough from New England through KS, and at least one short wave trough in the vicinity of the surface cold front. The HRRR and CAM consensus appeared to be handling current convective trends well, and indicate that most of the rain will continue to dissipate overnight, then re-develop during the morning and afternoon hours as the surface cold front translates eastward across our forecast area.
Quiet and dry conditions will continue today as weak upper level ridging moves eastward across the Western High Plains into the Central Plains during the period. A developing lee side trough of low pressure will strengthen across eastern Colorado today, helping to draw warmer air into the region with H85 temperatures ranging from around 10C across central Kansas to near 20C along the Colorado border. A dry pattern continues through Monday as a weak ridge passes overhead with a dome of high pressure being the dominate feature at the surface. Lee troughing will continue through Monday leading to breezy south to southeast winds felt across western Kansas. This will help push a cold front through the area Monday night.
408 AM CDT Sun Apr 23 2017 An upper level low pressure system will move slowly southeast across the Mid South today. Slightly warmer highs in the middle 60s can be expected west of the river where skies should gradually clear this afternoon. The upper low will move east by Monday as high pressure builds in with a return to dry conditions under mostly sunny skies. This should allow temperatures to rebound back to seasonable averages in the lower to middle 70s by Monday afternoon.
428 AM MDT Sun Apr 23 2017 The current infrared satellite image is showing some high clouds moving into the area this morning ahead of an approaching cold front. This cold front is currently located roughly along the Nevada Utah boarder. Showers and isolated thunderstorms will work their way into northern portions of the CWA this evening as the cold front slides across northern Utah and Colorado. Cool air will fill in from the northwest behind the departing cold front on Monday resulting in about 10 degrees of cooling for most areas, initiating a cooling trend that will be felt all week long. The current satellite water vapor image is showing a low pressure system centered over southern Missouri and a ridge of high pressure centered over the Four Corners with a cold front approaching Utah.
Large scale troughing over the central US will develop frontal systems which will impact the area midweek and again late in the week and over the weekend, which will return chances for showers and storms to the area. Dry weather will continue through the short term period as high pressure controls the area and a slow moving, elongated area of low pressure develops along a slow moving frontal zone to the west.
1117 PM MDT Sat Apr 22 2017 Upper analysis shows ridging over the north central and western CONUS. A low-level trough is crossing the Dakotas. Southwesterly winds will increase tonight across south central SD between exiting high pressure and an incoming low, keeping lows in the lower 40s there. This will result in temperatures ranging from the lower 60s across northwestern SD to the mid 70s across the southern and central SD plains.
318 AM CDT Sun Apr 23 2017 High pressure was centered over the Great Plains this morning. This high pressure isn't forecast to move much through the short term and is the primary weather producer during this period. Main forecast concern in the short term period are the high and low temperatures. H5 ridging and convergence will lead to subsidence across the area.
641 AM EDT Sun Apr 23 2017 High pressure was over the lower Great Lakes. Low pressure will move up the east coast early in the week.
326 AM CDT Sun Apr 23 2017 The cold front extends to the county lines of Beadle and Spink, extending northeast and northwest from there. As this low moves east during the day, we develop a stronger push of colder air southwards on the west side of the low.
/Issued 339 AM CDT Sun Apr 23 2017/ Clouds have been slow to totally clear out of our forecast area, on the back side of upper low pressure system now in the Southeast.
A decent pressure gradient will set up over western and central KS as an area of low pressure quickly advances into the High Plains region. These southerly winds will support decent WAA with afternoon temperatures quickly rising into the low 70s for much of the CWA. Despite mostly clear skies, these breezy southerly winds will keep overnight temperatures a bit warmer with lows in the mid/upper 40s.
This system has effectively laid out a zonal cold frontal boundary across the northern shore of Lake Superior. This front will be the feature of interest today as it backdoors down the long axis lakes of Lake Michigan and Lake Huron with quiet surface ridging preceding its arrival over southeastern Michigan. The coldest of the marine air is forecasted to surge into the Port Huron area where it is certainly possible that temperatures could drop at least 20 degrees in a couple of hours, down into the lower 40s before 00Z.
500 AM EDT Sun Apr 23 2017 Moisture channel imagery highlights a short wave mid-upper level trough moving east across the extreme southeastern Gulf of Mexico. A weak low pressure system is centered near western Cuba. Temperatures are in the mid 70s with dewpoints in the lower 70s. The low will press east of the Florida Peninsula tonight, then merge with a developing mid- latitude system along the Carolina coasts on Monday. A trailing trough axis and air mass change will press through the Keys Monday afternoon or evening, heralded by freshening northwest breezes and falling dewpoints. Rain chances will remain until the weak 'cold front' pushes through late Monday.
302 AM CDT Sun Apr 23 2017 Ongoing chances for showers look to continue today as the upper low spins overhead. Models have the upper low closing off and slowly spinning to the SSE during the day today and even into the early morning Monday. However, with the upper low spinning overhead, thunder may be possible especially on the Plateau.