Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
248 PM MST Wed Jan 22 2020 A fast moving short wave trough moved across our region today. This will likely produce scattered snow showers over the higher terrain, mainly in the afternoon hours, and possibly affect the foothills and nearby lower elevations.
630 PM EST Wed Jan 22 2020 High pressure is situated east of the area.
Then times of snow and rain move in Thursday through weekend with a low pressure system passing by to our south.
Forecast is on track with minimum temperatures tonight about 10 to 15 degrees warmer than last night thanks to increasing clouds and southerly flow. High pressure at the surface and ridging aloft will keep conditions dry overnight and through the first half of Thursday. Lows tonight should be a bit warmer then previous nights with lows in the upper 20s to mid 30s. Given even the low end of forecast winds is supportive of marginal high winds, feel it is warranted to go ahead an issue a high wind watch for the east Tennessee mountains.
Not seeing many reports of travel issues as temperatures have climbed to around freezing mark making treatment effective, but some patchy cover is being reported west of Iowa City. Between the mixed phase at the onset and much of the lift going toward saturation further east, overall snow amounts have been lowered a bit with generally up to around 2 inches through Thursday AM with the higher amounts in some of our western counties. Will have to watch for any weak lift which with saturated low levels could result in some drizzle or freezing drizzle but not seeing much at this time and therefore confidence is low on this occurring. Can't also rule out some fog with the low level moisture and winds easing up, but uncertainty as to the extent and magnitude.
654 PM MST Wed Jan 22 2020 With a good setup for widespread fog / freezing fog (warmer temperatures, snow melt, etc.
Thanks to ridging aloft, overnight lows will only drop into the mid 30s as a continued increase in mid to high clouds occurs from the west. Troughing over the central CONUS pushes eastward during the day on Thursday with an associated low pressure system that is expected to be centered over MO. As the system ejects east northeast across IL/IN a cold front to its south moves across the Tennessee Valley Thursday late afternoon into the evening.
Continuing to have issues with frozen precipitation, mainly freezing rain and sleet, across some of the colder valleys of northwest Arkansas this evening. With the chances of precipitation continuing through the night across eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas with isentropic lift in advance of a cold front that is slated to move through the region on Thursday, Will keep the winter weather advisory going until 12z for our northwest Arkansas Counties except Benton and Sebastian.
The low and frontal boundary will cross the area during the day Thursday, with rain tapering off from west to east. Rains taper off moving through Thursday as the mid and upper level trof advances into the Mississippi valley, sending an associated cold front across the area.
350 PM CST Wed Jan 22 2020 Weak forcing from a low far to our southeast will cause a wintry mix (including freezing drizzle) to sneak through the area from the southeast tonight and eventually the column cools enough to turn most of that into snow.
This low will move east into the Lower OH Valley tomorrow night, eventually moving into the Northeast this weekend. This southerly flow, combined with overcast skies, will generally keep temperatures above freezing overnight, but there is a potential for further cooling via diabatic processes (wet-bulb effects) with dewpoints still in the upper teens and lower 20s. With rain moving into the area this evening, a light wintry mix is possible during the overnight period, but any potential impacts will be limited with temperatures generally above freezing.
Rains taper off moving through Thursday as the mid and upper level trof advances into the Mississippi valley, sending an associated cold front across the area.
510 PM EST Wed Jan 22 2020 High pressure over the mid Atlantic states will remain nearly stationary into Thursday as low pressure over the Central Plains moves into the mid Mississippi Valley.
/issued 233 PM CST Wed Jan 22 2020/ An upper trough is passing over the area this afternoon along with a cold front dropping in from the north. It appears that there is just enough moisture and lift accompanying the trough and front to give us a chance of some light rain showers across the far southern Texas Panhandle through the evening.
Low level moisture entrenched in portions of northwest and west central NM may lead to patchy or areas of fog and freezing fog and mt obscurations aft 23/06Z and persisting through 23/15Z. Brisk northwest winds will today taper off through Thursday as high pressure builds slowly east into New Mexico.
It will be a little cooler Thursday afternoon in central Kansas given a closer proximity to the departing storm system and more cloud cover, with mid to upper 40s. A benign and mild weather pattern will persist through the weekend as upper level ridging develops over the Rockies and shifts slowly toward the high plains.
High pressure is retreating off to the east this afternoon with return flow bringing warmer temperatures to Middle Tennessee.
Predicted gusts of up to 45 mph, especially for the wind-prone areas of southeast Wyoming, have tried to exceed expectations this afternoon as a relatively dry cold front works its was from west to southeast. Otherwise, tomorrow will begin with patchy fog in the valleys as a ridge of high pressure builds across the west and valley inversions occur; the ridge's axis currently situated over California. Temperatures will be a few degrees cooler than today's; near normal for this time of year.
High pressure will maintain quiet weather overnight.
Coastal troughing remains evident in the wind field. Expect conditions to improve as flow becomes onshore, but observations continue to show resistance to this due to the current coastal troughing.
438 PM EST Wed Jan 22 2020 High pressure will ridge into the forecast area from the north through Thursday.
Visible satellite and surface observations show a cold front moving through southeast Wyoming.
High pressure aloft will shift east across the Great Basin and bring more stable conditions to the area tomorrow.
835 PM EST Wed Jan 22 2020 Milder night expected overnight as the area of high pressure responsible for our cold air mass during the first half of the week moves off the Eastern Seaboard. Despite continuing northerly flow at the surface, the 00Z upper-air sounding depicted easterly flow above the lowest 1. Lows will drop into the mid/upper 40s across the Nature Coast to the lower 50s elsewhere with immediate coastal locations hovering in the mid 50s. Warming trend continues Thursday with highs in the low/mid 70s across the forecast area under partly to mostly cloudy skies.
Weak forcing from a low far to our southeast will cause a wintry mix (including freezing drizzle) to sneak through the area from the southeast tonight and eventually the column cools enough to turn most of that into snow.
A broad trough currently sits across the plains. A broad area of rain roughly follows the Mississippi River from the Gulf Coast to central Missouri ahead of the trough axis. The trough will dig southeastward today with an upper low developing over eastern Kansas this afternoon.
334 AM EST Thu Jan 23 2020 A Central Plains closed low will move into the Mid Mississippi Valley over the next 24 hours, deepening as it moves closer to the Ohio Valley.
Upper level cloud cover has begun to overspread the area but some of the ridge and valleys are still showing some differences. With cloud cover moving into the area, the ridge to valley temperature difference will not be as pronounced. High pressure and upper level ridging are solidly in control today. As this longwave trough and surface systems continue to track eastward throughout the overnight and into the day Thursday, precip will also shift eastward and begin to make its way across Kentucky.
During this time a couple of upper level troughs will drop cold fronts into the region. The first cold front will move through the forecast area today but temperatures will still remain at or slightly above normal.
Rains to continue into the day tomorrow but look to break as a cold front moves through during the early afternoon hours. The low and frontal boundary will cross the area during the day Thursday, with rain tapering off from west to east. Rains taper off moving through Thursday as the mid and upper level trof advances into the Mississippi valley, sending an associated cold front across the area.
All this is compliments of a persistent well directed fetch of deep Pacific moisture hosing into the region and enhancing along a slow moving warm front draped west to east across the northern basin this evening. /Fugazzi 06Z TAFS: A long and deep fetch of subtropical Pacific moisture will be well directed into the forecast area and enhancing into mostly rain over a slow moving warm front running from KBLI to KLWS through the next 24 hours.
Although a few models depict sizable VFR gaps developing at times through the night, will keep the forecast pessimistic until drier NNW winds arrive later Thursday morning behind a weak cold front.
1006 PM EST Wed Jan 22 2020 High pressure will ridge into the forecast area from the north through Thursday.
High pressure aloft will shift east across the Great Basin and bring more stable conditions to the area through Thursday night.
1037 PM CST Wed Jan 22 2020 Dense fog has invaded KCDS and will likely maintain LIFR conditions until 9-10Z, when drier northerly winds move in and scour out the low-level moisture. Dense fog has recently developed at KCDS, and will likely fill in further southward along the Highway 83 Corridor through the late night hours. The fog is expected to rapidly dissipate from northwest to southeast from 09-12Z as surface ridging builds in with increasing northerly winds and drier air. /issued 233 PM CST Wed Jan 22 2020/ An upper trough is passing over the area this afternoon along with a cold front dropping in from the north. It appears that there is just enough moisture and lift accompanying the trough and front to give us a chance of some light rain showers across the far southern Texas Panhandle through the evening.
Meanwhile, the surface backdoor cold front continues to advance southwestward across eastern into north central ND, with winds becoming northeasterly behind it and a solid area of low stratus clouds pushing west/south. Expecting the backdoor cold front moving southwestward across the state will keep low stratus clouds around our area tonight and much of Thursday. Initial precipitation will have to overcome a dry layer in the lower levels, but there should be enough forcing and it should move slow enough that this dry layer is eventually saturated and precipitation begins reaching the ground.
Within the flow is an upper level short wave trough. Ahead of the trough light precipitation is falling. Behind the trough the subsidence is causing a clear sky. Today the short wave trough will be moving through the northeast part of the forecast area this morning. The trough has shifted a bit further east, and as such the precipitation will be east of the forecast area this morning. Radiational cooling will cause the lows to be a few degrees cooler than last night.
1159 PM CST Wed Jan 22 2020 Weak forcing from a low far to our southeast will cause a wintry mix (including freezing drizzle) to sneak through the area from the southeast tonight and eventually the column cools enough to turn most of that into snow.
High pressure along the Mid Atlantic coast will ensure fair weather and light wind tonight and Thursday across central Pa. Warm advection aloft in advance of deepening trough over the Miss Valley is already resulting in cirrus across Pa and model rh profiles indicate the high clouds will thicken by Thursday PM. *Recent guidance is tracking upper low further north, thus have reduced weekend snow amounts closer to WPC guidance.
/issued 835 PM EST Wed Jan 22 2020/ Milder night expected overnight as the area of high pressure responsible for our cold air mass during the first half of the week moves off the Eastern Seaboard. Despite continuing northerly flow at the surface, the 00Z upper-air sounding depicted easterly flow above the lowest 1. Lows will drop into the mid/upper 40s across the Nature Coast to the lower 50s elsewhere with immediate coastal locations hovering in the mid 50s. Warming trend continues Thursday with highs in the low/mid 70s across the forecast area under partly to mostly cloudy skies.
A cold front will makes its way across the CWA early this morning with any remaining low stratus and fog into central and south central Kansas dissipating with its passage. Northwest winds behind the boundary will increase by mid morning and gust up to 30-40 mph by noon time due to mixing and a strong gradient behind the aforementioned cold front. Temperatures this morning will mainly be in the mid 20s to low 30s west to east due to cloud cover supporting warmer temps into central and south central Kansas. Expect not as warm a day due to the aforementioned cold front reaching the mid 40s to low 50s northeast to southwest this afternoon.
No significant updates were needed outside of minor tweaks downwards with overnight temperatures over some of the higher elevations, where temperatures were already at or slightly below forecasted lows. /ISSUED 356 PM MST Wed Jan 22 2020/ A somewhat unstable NW flow aloft over the region this afternoon stabilizes tonight as an upper level ridge and its associated warming aloft shifts into the Northern Rockies.
Hooley A fast moving short wave trough moved across our region today. This will likely produce scattered snow showers over the higher terrain, mainly in the afternoon hours, and possibly affect the adjacent foothills and lower elevations.
Temperature moderation is underway as southwest flow on the western flank of a high-amplitude Ern CONUS ridge is advecting warmth and upr lvl moisture over the Upper OH Valley in response to a deepening Plains trough. By tonight, cutoff, southern stream upper low pressure is forecast just west of the MO /MS-junction with a broad swath of warm, moist advection on its van blanketing the OH Valley and Great Lakes.
No appreciable changes were made for the midnight update as high pressure will maintain quiet weather and seasonable temperature overnight.
MODOT roads info page has shown some accumulation on road surfaces up there with temperature near freezing or maybe a degree above freezing. The only exception might be our far eastern counties where cloud ice formation for snow may be marginal w/some freezing drizzle possible. Again, with temperatures expected to maybe rise a degree, not sure there will be much overall road impacts even if freezing drizzle occurs. At this point, will be conservative and leave our current advisory alone, but think the travel impacts will be fairly limited in scope this early morning either with the snow/sleet band that is occurring now and to the east of KSGF in the higher elevation terrain where temperatures may stick closer to freezing longer.
215 AM CST Thu Jan 23 2020 An upper level disturbance will dive southeast across the central Great Plains and help to develop a closed upper level low over southeast Kansas by late this afternoon.
KBBD will be on the edge of the low clouds and fog, so trends will have to be monitored here for potential amendments. The low level moisture is expected to clear out of both KABI and KJCT by 15Z tomorrow morning, and VFR conditions are expected at all sites through the rest of the forecast.
153 AM MST Thu Jan 23 2020 Water vapor shows upper trof axis over western portions of the northern plains, with upper ridge building through the western CONUS. Light snow associated with upper trof continues over our eastern zones early this morning. Western CONUS ridge will build eastward through the weekend, bringing mainly dry and warming conditions.
Avery With a good setup for widespread fog / freezing fog (warmer temperatures, snow melt, etc.
With the low level jet strengthening, expect LLWS at CHA late in the period.
814 PM MST Wed Jan 22 2020 No significant updates were needed outside of minor tweaks downwards with overnight temperatures over some of the higher elevations, where temperatures were already at or slightly below forecasted lows. /ISSUED 356 PM MST Wed Jan 22 2020/ A somewhat unstable NW flow aloft over the region this afternoon stabilizes tonight as an upper level ridge and its associated warming aloft shifts into the Northern Rockies.
Ahead of the of the main trof axis. Latest surface analysis indicates that there may continue to be locations within the higher terrain of Southern Madison/Northern Franklin counties that could be close to/just below the freezing mark which would allow for a wintry mix/freezing rain to remain possible. the main trof axis is expected to shift eastward through the CWA. These precip chances look to change over to light snow as the upper low moves through the northern part of the region. under the upper low with amounts generally less than a half inch forecast.
However, a low pressure area moving south will pass over southeastern KS and northeastern OK this afternoon.
Drier mid level air near the center of the low will result in more isolated showers ivo BPT and LCH this morning until a cold front sweeps through the area from west to east late this morning through early afternoon. Some stronger convective activity noted offshore in the warmer and moister airmass south of this boundary. Back edge of the heaviest precipitation working towards the Sabine river currently, though a few lingering showers will be possible until cold frontal passage.
If ice loss occurs aloft, this would result in a patchy freezing drizzle/rain event. General troughiness aloft with closed low passing to our south and east will keep clouds in place and chances for precip through Friday as multiple weak short waves peel off the low and lift across the region. With low level temperatures around freezing and forecast soundings showing deep saturation, expect main precip type to be snow.
A low pressure system will then lift into the area later tonight into Friday with periods of rain.
With the low level jet strengthening, expect LLWS to develop later in the period so will include at all sites.
A strong upper jet diving south from the northern Rockies to along the central Rockies front range will result in the development of a closed mid/upper level low across eastern Kansas this afternoon. This low will deepen as it moves southeast into the southwest Missouri Ozarks tonight. Steeper low level lapse rates under the upper low and sufficient moisture look to support diurnally enhanced showers with temperatures cold enough for snow across north central/northeast into east central Kansas and eventually southeast Kansas late this afternoon and evening. While surface temperatures just above freezing should limit snow accums, the showers may support bursts of transient moderate snowfall with accums around one inch or so likely. It will remain seasonably cold but dry on Friday as the upper low moves eastward away from the region.
These conditions will continue through 18Z for most sites, when the upper level disturbance begins to usher most of the low level clouds and rain to the east. During the late evening hours, this improvement will spread east leaving only some high level clouds in the area as the upper low shifts east. /Today through Friday/ The upper level trough axis is just off to the west and will rotate through the region later today. A weak cold front will push through later today and clouds will mostly clear out tonight after midnight.
With surface temperatures still hovering near freezing. breezy northerly winds will make it feel cooler than the actual air temperatures will be. A fairly progressive weather pattern is expected through the extended periods as weak ridging over the weekend will bring near to above seasonal temps.
There could be some light freezing drizzle if mid level saturation is lost but think snow will be the dominant precipitation type.
/Issued 215 AM CST Thu Jan 23 2020/ An upper level disturbance will dive southeast across the central Great Plains and help to develop a closed upper level low over southeast Kansas by late this afternoon.
VFR elsewhere as drier northwest winds move in behind a cold front. Then, light wind tonight, under a cloudless sky, will help produce lows ranging from around freezing to the mid 30s.
Moist southwest flow is moving into the region as the ridge migrates east. A weak cold front will push through the Northern Rockies on Friday. Widespread precipitation is anticipated across the region with snow in the higher terrain and a wintry mix in the valleys. The wintry mix in the valleys includes the potential of freezing rain. Uncertainty lies on the location of the freezing rain, but Ovando/Helmville area and portions of Lemhi county appear to have the best chance Friday morning.
Downslope westerly winds will keep instability showers in check over the lower elevations, but expect mountains to see periods of snow through the day. Ridge builds over the area tonight for dry and quiet conditions, though winds will continue to be gusty over the western foothills.
A Central Plains closed low will move into the Mid Mississippi Valley over the next 24 hours, deepening as it moves closer to the Ohio Valley. A closed upper low is forecast to rotate northeast over the Lower Ohio Valley Friday and Friday night. CAA gets underway on Friday on SW flow as low pressure wobbles north over Indiana. With abundant cloud cover and precip, highs will be limited to the low to mid 40s.
With clearing behind the warm front and ahead of the cold front approaching the coast this morning fog has formed in the Rogue valley and the Klamath basin. Precipitation from the approaching cold front is working its way down the coast and is almost into Douglas county at this time.
405 AM EST Thu Jan 23 2020 High pressure continues to maintain control of the region and will gradually transition offshore by Friday. Low pressure will approach the region from the Midwest by Friday, before slowly moving northward towards New England during the second half of the weekend.
Some stronger convective activity noted offshore in the warmer and moister airmass south of this boundary. Back edge of the heaviest precipitation working towards the Sabine river currently, though a few lingering showers will be possible until cold frontal passage.
A broad trough currently sits across the plains. A broad area of rain roughly follows the Mississippi River from the Gulf Coast to central Missouri ahead of the trough axis. The trough will dig southeastward today with an upper low developing over eastern Kansas this afternoon. By 12z Friday, the upper low will be centered over NE Arkansas and will lift northeastward along the Ohio River Valley through the day. Some light precipitation will be around on Friday and Friday night associated with the upper low.
/Today through Friday/ The upper level trough axis is just off to the west and will rotate through the region later today. A weak cold front will push through later today and clouds will mostly clear out tonight after midnight.
518 AM CST Thu Jan 23 2020 A mid-level ridge will continue to build across the western CONUS, thus causing energy to dig southeast over the central CONUS through Friday. A shear axis over the western Dakotas will continue to support some light pcpn this morning, but much of that pcpn will gradually dry up as the energy/jet shifts south and forms an upper low over the lower Ohio River valley. Friday looks dry as ridging aloft starts to re-assert itself over the Northern Plains.