Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
A strong cold front located from Gillette to south of Afton will continue its southeastward trek across the Cowboy state this evening and western NE after midnight. Today's gusty winds are occurring due to enhanced surface pressure gradients well ahead of a strong surface cold front currently tracking across northwestern Wyoming. Most of the area outside of the mountains should see less than one inch, but expect to see local amounts around 2-3 inches along the Pine Ridge with a respectable orographic influence post-fropa.
A strong low pressure system follows this weekend with widespread rain expected. Tightly wound upper low over nrn MO will drift north into ne WI by Fri aftn. This is associated with potent upstream disturbance over the nrn Rockies this aftn which amplifies through base of midwest centered upper trough and results in robust/deep upper low development over the wrn OH valley by Sun. Much cooler yet seasonable temps follow Sun-Wed. Large area of light/moderate showers with a few embedded heavy downpours and low visibilities currently lifting north through the area and expect to clear KSBN just after the beginning of this cycle as surface cold front pushes eastward through the area. Surface and upper low remain out to the west as they drift northward into the upper MS valley.
620 PM CDT Thu Apr 8 2021 Slow-moving low pressure continues to meander through Iowa into Minnesota this afternoon, with an area of showers north of I-94 and back to the west in western MN. Aloft, the upper low looks to be slightly south of this but becoming nearly vertically stacked. An interesting temperature setup is noted as well, as cold air wrapped around the low is actually advecting in from the south, making for temperatures in the 50s early this afternoon across northeast IA/far southwest WI, to the 60s north of there (outside of showers). Showers should gradually fill back in tonight as the dry slot moves northwest and the upper level low rotates into the area. by early Friday morning the nearly stacked low pressure system will be directly overhead and shifting northeast through the day.
High pressure ridge remains along the coast, keeping warm spring weather through the weekend.
Marginal MVFR stratus will lift Nwrd Fri morning associated with a warm front. Additional convection is expected to develop late in the period with the approach of a cold front from OK.
838 PM EDT Thu Apr 8 2021 Dry high pressure will move further offshore overnight with an approaching frontal system bringing increasing chances of showers and thunderstorms Friday into the weekend.
High pressure will be the dominant weather feature for the foreseeable future bringing above normal daytime temperatures and typical springtime breezes each afternoon. Friday will be slightly cooler than today across the region with near normal in the Four Corners area. A series of troughs passing to the north prevent a ridge from building in over the Southwest to moderate the temperatures. All the models are in pretty good agreement on this solution with the 12Z run of the deterministic European model being the only outlier with a complex longwave trough across the CONUS. On the more pessimistic side, the the western orographic features will likely draw the ridge farther east over the Great basin, pushing the eastern trough of the block more into eastern New Mexico and West Texas leaving Arizona warm and dry.
Cloudy, cool and somewhat damp conditions have set in over the region courtesy of a large upper low see on satellite imagery churning over northeast Missouri this afternoon. A lobe of vorticity rotating around the east side of the low was triggering a band of showers seen on radar in an arc from Burlington to Peoria at 2pm, spreading northward. After the initial band of showers lifts through this evening, additional rounds of mostly light rain showers or drizzle will be triggered by the upper low and additional weak impulses that encircling it. Friday, showers and drizzle will continue through the morning, then advance northward to mainly north of highway 30 by afternoon as the weakening upper low lifts into upper Michigan.
An upper level low continued to spin over Missouri this afternoon with cloud cover slowly lifting north and showers across central Missouri doing the same. However, where clouds and rain remained across central Missouri, temps struggled to make it into the lower 50s. AS the low lifts to the north tonight, cloud cover and rain will follow along. As the upper low slides into the central plains, showers and thunderstorms will spread north into the Ozarks Friday afternoon as moisture and warm air advection continues.
527 PM MDT Thu Apr 8 2021 Latest upper air analysis shows a long wave trough over the western half of the CONUS. Within the long wave trough were two short wave troughs, one over the Northwest CONUS and the other over the Central Plains. Northwest winds were breezy over the Plains behind the second trough. Friday a cold front will move through the forecast area during the morning. Despite the cooler temperatures behind the front, there is a fire weather concern for zones 224, 222, and 228.
1052 PM EDT Thu Apr 8 2021 A broad and mature cyclone over the upper Midwest will gradually push moisture to the east into the region tonight.
Short Term Update - Ridging will continue to dominate the Keys weather through the overnight. Expect temperatures to fall a few more degrees and range broadly in the lower 70s. A ridge across Florida will maintain light to gentle east to southeast breezes on Keys waters through the overnight period.
High pressure arrives on Friday, providing warmer temperatures and dry southwest winds.
Fog tonight will much more isolated than last night due to the warmer ground (temperatures this afternoon got into the upper 80s which may have allowed the ground to absorb enough heat to keep the near surface air from saturating enough for fog development). Cloud cover returns tomorrow evening as a cold front approaches from the northwest. Onshore winds are returning to the area today, and this is helping to boost temperatures into the low to mid 80s. For now, will continue to keep shower and thunderstorm chances in the forecast with the higher numbers Friday evening through Friday night.
Eastern plains will certainly be windy enough for critical conditions, but with RH rising slowly behind the cold front, we may not see the required 3 hrs of sub-15 percent RH for a highlight, and will push decision off to the next shift. Latest upper air analysis shows a long wave trough over the western half of the CONUS. Within the long wave trough were two short wave troughs, one over the Northwest CONUS and the other over the Central Plains. Northwest winds were breezy over the Plains behind the second trough. Friday a cold front will move through the forecast area during the morning. Despite the cooler temperatures behind the front, there is a fire weather concern for zones 224, 222, and 228.
Latest rapid-update, short-range model guidance continues to suggest that the precipitation will gradually dissipate overnight, while waa-forced light precipitation approaches from the west- northwest in association with energy contained withing the next upper level trof moving east-southeast through Montana and the Dakotas. Upper low situated over northern Missouri will start to pick up speed as it gets nudged northeast by another system dropping southeast through the northern Rockies. Meanwhile, out to the west, as the approaching system moves into the High Plains, expect some UVM to spread out across the western CWA.
This will allow for cold overnight low temperatures with many sites at or below freezing Friday morning.
-Mottice NW winds have been increasing across the area today as a cold front is pushing through. Dry air near the cold front near the Big Sheep Mountains early this afternoon is an indication that the current Red Flag Warning looks good (or bad depending on your perspective). However, this is expected to moisten up a bit as an upper trough will dig into the area and provide enough divergence aloft coupled with instability to give some decent showers to mainly southeast Montana. The next cold front marches SE through the area bringing more wind and not as much precip.
700 PM CDT Thu Apr 8 2021 A large upper low will gradually lift north into Wisconsin on Friday, keeping periods of showers continuing over central Illinois into Friday morning.
705 PM EDT Thu Apr 8 2021 An approaching warm front will bring rain showers and isolated storms to the region tonight. Moist advection is fueling the increased rain chance with the systems warm front, but warm mid levels are limiting instability and inhibiting a widespread storm threat. Scattered rain showers will come to an end Friday morning as the aforementioned warm front propagates northeastward, allowing some clearing and the chance for instability to build. Long range models indicate another low pressure system will move newd through the Great Lakes late this weekend. This could bring another warm frontal propagation, continue above climatological warmth, and provide another chance for showers and thunderstorms. Periodic rain showers are expected ahead of a lifting warm front, with moist advection slowly lowering cigs through Friday morning.
For this afternoon: A warm front moved north into the northern CWA over the last several hours, leading to increasing dew points (SGF increased from 32F at 9pm to 40F at 3am). There is a threat for multiple rounds of heavy rainfall to the left of the low track, with hi-res models generally showing potential for 1-3" (locally higher).
336 AM CDT Fri Apr 9 2021 Turning cooler, windy and wet today. An upper trough translating southeast from the northern Rockies across the Central Plains today will send a cold front south through our region this morning. The upper trough deepens/closes off across Nebraska and in increasing lift, chances for rain showers return to our area this afternoon and continue into the overnight hours. With the increasing cloud cover and rain around today, have kept temperatures conservatively cool and similar to the previous forecasts with highs ranging from around 50F in our western zones to the low/mid 60s in the east. but it'll feel cooler with the windy and damp conditions.
A brief minimum in convective coverage is expected through the overnight hours tonight as the primary severe concern initially will remain to the west with an ongoing large MCS rapidly progressing eastward across the Lower Mississippi Valley.
The southern half of Minnesota will be stuck in the deformation zone today as the upper low moves into western WI. As the low pulls away this afternoon and this evening, showers will begin to diminish from the south as the mid-levels dry out. Most ares will dry out overnight as the low finally exits into southern Ontario. Temperatures will be cooler today, with highs only in the mid 40s to lower 50s and low temperatures near 40, a far cry from the 70s/80s earlier this week.
1146 PM CDT Thu Apr 8 2021 A large upper low will gradually lift north into Wisconsin on Friday, keeping periods of showers continuing over central Illinois into Friday morning.
359 AM CDT Fri Apr 9 2021 A deep, occluded cyclone continues to lift poleward across the western Great Lakes early this morning. The surface front associated with this low extends south into middle TN, arcing south and west across north MS into the Arklatex. Strong forcing for ascent downstream of this trough will steepen lapse rates and help provide the impetus for convective activity this afternoon and overnight. As the warm front lifts north, warm Gulf air will advect into the Mid- South. Deep-layer shear will likely be on the weaker side through mid- afternoon but will begin to ramp up toward 00z as the low-level jet develops. As this first wave of convection moves east, a second line of storms is expected along the Pacific cold front during the overnight hours.
Tomorrow afternoon will see a cold front move into a rather warm and unstable airmass during the afternoon hours. This, as a result, will trigger thunderstorm development initially ahead of the front across NE OK before more widespread activity initiates along the cold front. Focus turns to severe weather threat Friday afternoon/evening ahead of strong cold front.
351 AM EDT Fri Apr 9 2021 A few showers and thunderstorms will be possible today as an upper level low pressure system lifts northeast across the Great Lakes.
148 AM MDT Fri Apr 9 2021 High pressure will today will provide for warmer temperatures and dry conditions.
A cold front will be approaching the TAF sites from the northwest late tonight bringing scattered showers and thunderstorms.
229 AM EDT Fri Apr 9 2021 A broad and mature cyclone over the upper Midwest will gradually push moisture to the east into the region tonight.
An additional upper level trough was digging across the northern Rockies.
355 AM EDT Fri Apr 9 2021 A weakening low pressure system will continue to provide the chance of showers and thunderstorms into the coming weekend. Scattered rain showers will be weakening and end by mid morning as the warm front propagates northeastward, allowing some clearing and the chance for instability to build. The initial low pressure system lifts to the north into the Great Lakes region due to the stout ridging in the northeast. Another warm front will then lift northeast into the region.
336 AM CDT Fri Apr 9 2021 As of 0830Z Friday morning the initial upper low was progressing northeastward across eastern IA with the last of its cloud cover exiting the forecast area. Our attention turns westward to the approaching upper trough across the central and northern Rockies. Short term model solutions vary somewhat with the placement of the effective warm front by afternoon, but the general consensus is the front should setup near the KS/OK border in southeast KS/northeast OK. As a result, confidence is on the lower end for strong/severe convection across east-central KS. Additional rain showers are expected across the remainder of the area during the evening and overnight night hours as the main upper trough closes off and progresses along the KS/NE border.
The big story today will be noticeably cooler temperatures in the upper 50s to lower 60s in most places (-5 to -15F colder than yesterday) due to a moist east/southeast flow that will lock-in low clouds east of the Allegheny Divide (US-219 corridor). Downsloping on the westside of the mtns will provide more sunshine, warmer temperatures, and possibly an isolated t'storm this afternoon near or along CTP/PBZ border. Low clouds with pockets of light rain/drizzle and patchy fog will be common over much of CPA (east of the higher terrain) tonight.
Cooler temperatures are expected Friday behind a cold front.
1017 PM CDT Thu Apr 8 2021 Slow-moving low pressure continues to meander through Iowa into Minnesota this afternoon, with an area of showers north of I-94 and back to the west in western MN. Aloft, the upper low looks to be slightly south of this but becoming nearly vertically stacked. An interesting temperature setup is noted as well, as cold air wrapped around the low is actually advecting in from the south, making for temperatures in the 50s early this afternoon across northeast IA/far southwest WI, to the 60s north of there (outside of showers). Showers should gradually fill back in tonight as the dry slot moves northwest and the upper level low rotates into the area. by early Friday morning the nearly stacked low pressure system will be directly overhead and shifting northeast through the day.
335 AM CDT Fri Apr 9 2021 As seen by current satellite, the upper level low center is presently located over the Upper Mississippi Valley very early this morning. The upper level low will slide into the northern Great Lakes region by this evening, and with mid level cooling and a less defined TROWAL, showers will become more scattered through the day - ending from west to east into this evening. It will be a cool night as lows drop into the lower to mid 30s where skies clear first, while upper 30s to lower 40s will be found elsewhere.
255 AM MDT Fri Apr 9 2021 Strong cold front is moving through central SD at this time, with very gusty winds behind it across much of the western SD plains. Further east, areas of light rain and snow will develop this morning, especially from the Pine Ridge into parts of central SD. Some light snow accumulations are possible over the Pine Ridge later this morning.
117 AM EDT Fri Apr 9 2021 High pressure will move offshore tonight.
243 AM MDT Fri Apr 9 2021 A surface cold front, currently draped along or just north of the I-70 corridor, will continue rippling through the complex terrain across the Western Slope, reaching southwest Colorado by sunrise. As a result, northwest flow and cooler temperatures will blanket the region shortly after daybreak. High temperatures will run roughly ten degrees cooler today, in comparison to Thursday. The entire area clears out late tonight, which sets the stage for another brisk morning and lows dipping back below freezing.
A wavy frontal boundary continues to lay into nrn lower Michigan, while a cold front is working into the GTV Bay region from the SW. It'll be cooler today, with high temperatures in the middle 50s to around 60F in eastern upper, to the upper 50s to middle 60s in nrn lower. The next upper level low pressure system evident on water vapor imagery across the Montana/Wyoming region will track east southeastward over the next couple of days.
The main upper low continues to rotate over southeast MN/IA/WI, with the deformation band stretching across the eastern Dakotas. This entire setup will slowly move back to the east today as the upper low wobbles into the northern Great Lakes.
351 AM CDT Fri Apr 9 2021 A cold front, along with strong pressure rises, will produce gusty northwesterly winds today, especially this morning. A persistent low pressure system over Wisconsin will continue producing light showers over the far eastern CWA into the morning hours.
100 AM CDT Fri Apr 9 2021 For the 09/06Z TAF update, an active period is set to begin with convection ongoing along the warm front crossing our airspace from the southwest, and two rounds of severe TSRA possible as early as 09/18Z and after 10/00Z through the end of the period. Warm front knocking on our southern tier with some lower to mid 70s and yet upper 50s in the far north and a range of 60s in between. Radar has had the one super cell from Waco SE ward gobbing up all the low level jet, but is now weakening and should allow the northern more activity to get a better foot hold in the coming hours.
Look for plenty of sunshine and warm temperatures in the low-level southerly flow, with afternoon highs pushing 80. As yet another closed upper low dives into eastern Kansas after midnight and a sfc reflection develops near St Louis, precip chances will increase through the night with 50-60 POPs getting into southern Indiana and our KY counties west of I-65.
As the upper low continues to dig southeast toward MO tonight, numerous showers and embedded thunderstorms can be expected.
With high pressure remaining situated over the region, high temperatures will hover around 10 degrees above average through the weekend. This area of high pressure will also ensure widespread dry weather with no realistic chance of rain.
229 AM EDT Fri Apr 9 2021 A weakening low pressure system will continue to provide the chance of showers and thunderstorms into the coming weekend. Scattered rain showers will be weakening and end by mid morning as the warm front propagates northeastward, allowing some clearing and the chance for instability to build. The initial low pressure system lifts to the north into the Great Lakes region due to the stout ridging in the northeast. Another warm front will then lift northeast into the region.
An upper low noted on 08z/3am water vapor imagery over southwest Wisconsin will continue to track N/NW today. Thanks to increasing amounts of sunshine and southwesterly winds gusting 20-30mph, high temperatures will be considerably warmer than they were yesterday. Readings will range from the lower 60s far north. Lows will mostly be in the lower to middle 50s, with cooler upper 40s far north.
Strong cold air advection in the lower and mid troposphere will overtake western Kansas after daybreak.
414 AM EDT Fri Apr 9 2021 Another dry and mild early April night is in progress for the Florida Keys, with mostly clear skies, no precipitation detected by Miami radar, temperatures in the lower to mid 70s, and winds on land from the SE at 10 to 15 mph with occasional higher gusts. Surface analysis shows high pressure centered NE of the Bahamas, with moderate SE flow across the Keys within the circulation around this high. Aloft, a lower to mid level ridge remains centered near South Florida.
CD Chattanooga Airport, TN 80 60 72 54 72 / 30 70 90 40 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 80 58 72 54 70 / 20 50 80 50 10 Oak Ridge, TN 79 58 72 53 70 / 20 50 80 50 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 77 54 72 54 68 / 20 20 80 50 20.
1259 AM EDT Fri Apr 9 2021 A weakening low pressure system will continue to provide the chance of showers and thunderstorms into the coming weekend. Scattered rain showers will be weakening and end by mid morning as the warm front propagates northeastward, allowing some clearing and the chance for instability to build. The initial low pressure system lifts to the north into the Great Lakes region due to the stout ridging in the northeast. Another warm front will then lift northeast into the region.
A weak upper level ridge is supporting the dry conditions. There is some easterly flow over the ridges this morning, but it is light, so humidity recoveries are good for the most part, with some moderate recoveries over western Siskiyou county. That ridge is now moving out of the area, and the upstream trough will move onshore Friday evening. A stronger upper level ridge will build in Saturday night. Any lingering showers will end Saturday evening and low level flow will turn easterly with gusty winds over the west side ridges.
Today, as the CO shrtwv digs through the base of the trough supporting the development of another cloed low over the central Plains, the WI low will be nudged northward. Despite the cloud cover, the mild airmass will support highs into the mid 50s, with cooler conditions along the Great Lakes. Tonight, with the mid level low moving north of the area, the approaching mid level ridge will help bring an end to most of the lingering light rain showers. Lows will only drop into the lower 40s. A warm front is expected to move over south and east Upper Michigan Saturday afternoon.
Winds will diminish as high pressure settles into the area. Temperatures will warm across NE Montana on Saturday ahead of the next cold front set to arrive late in the day.
As the foregoing upper disturbances continue to travel EWD, a cold front is expected to move across the CWA early Saturday morning. Drier conditions aloft are expected this evening/tonight owing to susbsidence behind the southern upper disturbance, contributing to below normal PWAT values in advance of the cold front. Only slightly cooler Saturday.
(Today and tonight) On the weather map early this morning, an area of low pressure at the surface was sprawled out across the Panhandle down through the South Plains. The area of low pressure will push southeastward today, reaching the Hill Country by this evening. This should cause winds to become northerly across northwest Texas and subsequently push a cold front into the northern Big Country late this afternoon. This should help support high temperatures in the low to mid 90s from I-20 southward. However, highs across the Big Country should be a few degrees lower as the cooler air is expected to reach this area by mid to late afternoon. Northerly winds will usher in cooler conditions, and with clear to partly cloudy skies in place, low temperatures will generally be in the low to mid 40s.