Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Stumpf (Issued 225 PM CDT Tue Aug 9 2022) Tonight through Wednesday night: High pressure will dominate tonight with mainly clear skies. We will see a warm surge on Wednesday with a thermal ridge setting up with a westerly wind between the high to our south and a low pressure system to our north. Highs should reach the low/mid 80s with an upward nudge in the dew points as well. A cold front is then proggd to drop through the area from the north Wednesday evening.
448 PM MDT Tue Aug 9 2022 Water vapor imagery shows broad upper ridge across the western CONUS, and an upper low drifting offshore the NW Pac coast.
605 PM EDT Tue Aug 9 2022 The Bermuda high pressure over the area slowly weakens as a cold front approaches from the northwest on Wednesday.
The temperature forecast Wednesday is little changed from the previous forecast but the models show the warm front across nrn Nebraska this afternoon dropping south into the Niobrara Valley Wednesday morning which could drop highs a few degrees.
813 PM MDT Tue Aug 9 2022 Upper level ridging continues over our region today through Wednesday afternoon. Clear skies and hot, but cooler than yesterday for the High Plains region, temperatures today with temperatures returning back into the upper 90s for the rest of the week.
Present indications are that this activity may spread north-northeastward into the local area during the late evening hours, due to a modest increase in southwesterly flow aloft around a mid/upper-level cyclone situated across AR.
Upper level ridging continues over our region today through Wednesday afternoon. Clear skies and hot, but cooler than yesterday for the High Plains region, temperatures today with temperatures returning back into the upper 90s for the rest of the week.
A weakness in the ridge will allow additional showers and thunderstorms to redevelop again tomorrow and keep temperatures out of the 90s. Lows will be in the lower 70s.
A few storms have developed along a boundary but are struggling to maintain intensity as ridging aloft and large amounts of subsistence remain across the region. A large area of high pressure remains across much of the Front Range with the center located across north central Colorado. This ridge will provide this period of quiet and warm weather on Wednesday.
659 PM EDT Tue Aug 9 2022 High pressure will prevail across the region through Wednesday.
Otherwise VFR conditions are expected through the period as upper level high pressure starts to build into the area.
Cold front is entering Corson county this afternoon and will continue to move south through the evening. Wednesday will see a bit of a push of "cooler" air over eastern portions of the CWA, but western areas are expected to remain rather hot with highs in the 90s. Easterly breezes will continue and expecting the coolest readings in the Glacial Lakes region where highs will top out in the lower 80s.
908 PM EDT Tue Aug 9 2022 High pressure will prevail across the region through Wednesday.
The upper flow shifts from southerly tonight to southwesterly on Wednesday as the upper low to our west moves northward. Temperatures will be cooler on Wednesday, especially in SW Idaho.
Otherwise, variable cloud cover and drier, cooler conditions this week. A cold front located south of the area has become nearly stationary. Wednesday this then expected to be mild and dry with mostly clear skies allowing temperatures to warm into the low 80s despite being on the cool side of the front. Broad upper troughing will be over the northeastern quarter of the continent going into the middle of the week.
1033 PM EDT Tue Aug 9 2022 The Bermuda high pressure over the area slowly weakens as a cold front approaches from the northwest on Wednesday.
A favorable flow pattern for daily thunderstorms will persist through the week as the upper high remains centered near the Four Corners region.
606 PM CDT Tue Aug 9 2022 Stationary front extends from Southern Missouri across far southeast KS and into western OK with high pressure situated from the western Great Lakes into the Mid Mississippi Valley. In the upper levels, ridge is centered over the Four Corners region with water vapor imagery showing a weak impulse over the Ozarks. This is also where the higher PW airmass will be situated. Upper ridging will start to expand east slightly for Wed into Thu which will keep precip chances out of the forecast. By Fri afternoon the upper ridge will be centered over eastern CO/western KS/sw Nebraska. Will introduce some pops for the Mon night through Tue time frame as the upper high sinks slowly south and weakens, which will allow some moonsonal energy to potentially impact central KS.
712 PM EDT Tue Aug 9 2022 Showers and thunderstorms can be expected today and Wednesday, mainly south of Pittsburgh, with the passage of a slow moving cold front.
547 PM CDT Tue Aug 9 2022 Mid afternoon temperatures range from the mid 70s in parts of southwest MN to the lower 90s in south central SD. Blocking upper ridging over the Rockies meanders slightly further east on Wednesday. Coupled with mixing into slightly warmer temperatures aloft, this brings a little warmer weather Wednesday.
Most of the activity stay over the western half of our CWA, favoring the waters but did on occasion pass over the Lower Keys. This activity is now mostly concentrated west of the Lower Keys. Have made some minor adjustments to speed up when the lower rain chances would be occurring tonight.
High pressure grows over the weekend providing a subtle warming and drying trend, mainly for interior areas. Temperatures are mainly in the low 70s, with Tuesday afternoon high temperatures reaching the low 80s for the far interior locations. The upper level low that continues to spin off the Northern California Coast keeps the winds are onshore and breezy. The low off the coast will advect northward at a snail's pace. Meanwhile the upper-level ridge centered over the Four Corners sits with warmer and drier weather. Ensemble guidance, with agreement from cluster analysis, shows a high probability of the the upper level ridge inching westward over the weekend. KSFO Bridge Approach.
The highest POPs will hence be generally south of I-20.
829 PM EDT Tue Aug 9 2022 A cold front will then linger across the area through Wednesday. Drier and less humid conditions arrive late this week into this weekend as high pressure of Canadian origin builds across the area. Another trough supports renewed shower and thunderstorm growth into the early afternoon with locally heavy rainfall the continued threat. Temperatures still warm into the mid to upper 70s, but there will be some potential for locally cooler conditions based on where cloud cover persists the longest.
800 PM EDT Tue Aug 9 2022 High pressure over the Lower Great Lakes has yielded another Chamber of Commerce Day across the U. A moisture starved cold front over far northwest Ontario will continue to drop southward this evening and through the area early Wednesday. Cold front will pass through the area early Wednesday.
746 PM EDT Tue Aug 9 2022 The Bermuda high pressure over the area slowly weakens as a cold front approaches from the northwest on Wednesday.
740 PM EDT Tue Aug 9 2022 Cooler air will pour across the Eastern Great Lakes tonight and tomorrow with a few lake effect rain showers southeast of Lake Ontario. High pressure will build towards our region tomorrow and tomorrow night with lake effect rain and clouds dissipating.
Any fog will burn off quickly Wendesday, leaving a mostly sunny sky and highs in the lower to middle 80s by afternoon. 00z surface analysis placed 1018 mb high pressure over northeast IL, with the cool front that was crossing the region last evening south of the Ohio River. Light northeast flow allowed drier air to slowly shift south as dewpoints ranged from the low/mid 60s over the northern CWA to 70F south of I-70. The drier air will promote cooler lows than recent nights, ranging from the upper 50s north of I-72, to mid 60s south of I-70 where overcast skies are more prevalent. With the sunny skies tomorrow, afternoon highs should reach into the lower to middle 80s.
1135 PM EDT Tue Aug 9 2022 High pressure over the Lower Great Lakes has yielded another Chamber of Commerce Day across the U. A moisture starved cold front over far northwest Ontario will continue to drop southward this evening and through the area early Wednesday. Cold front will pass through the area early Wednesday.
405 AM EDT Wed Aug 10 2022 The southeast remains entrenched in an incredibly moist airmass, situated on the western edge of the Bermuda High at the surface, and in a weakness between two ridges aloft. 96 The pattern looks to change as the ridge to our west builds and the trough deepens into the SE states.
1229 AM CDT Wed Aug 10 2022 (Tonight through Wednesday night) Upper air analysis this morning shows the subtropical ridge has shifted slightly to the northwest. The upper ridge will continue to retreat toward the northwest Wednesday. This will allow weak impulses to move around the south side of the ridge into Texas.
214 AM EDT Wed Aug 10 2022 A cold front will linger near the Ohio River through Wednesday. Drier and less humid conditions arrive late this week into this weekend as high pressure of Canadian origin builds across the area. Another trough supports renewed shower and thunderstorm growth into the early afternoon with locally heavy rainfall the continued threat. Temperatures still warm into the mid to upper 70s, but there will be some potential for locally cooler conditions based on where cloud cover persists the longest.
1015 PM CDT Tue Aug 9 2022 At the surface, the cold front that has been slowly moving through the CWA is at our southern border. In the upper levels, ridging is apparent in the western CONUS, with more zonal flow present in the east. Through tonight and Wednesday, the ridging will amplify, lifting heights into the northern Midwest.
An upper level ridge is gradually moving into the region keeping skies quiet for the next few days. As the ridge moves in, midlevel flow begins to pivot out of the south advecting warmer air into the region.
Main center of H500 high pressure system shifts slightly southeast tomorrow further into Colorado. High temperatures tomorrow will be slightly warmer than today given the less cloud cover.
CAMS were in good agreement in moving the very slow moving upper trough, PV anomaly/500mb vort, west southwest across the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandle this Wednesday afternoon as a moist upslope flow develops across southeast Colorado and extreme southwest Kansas. Given this moisture, weak low level forcing and late day instability develops ahead of this upper trough there will be a small chance (<15%) for afternoon thunderstorms across extreme southeast Colorado and possibly even portions of extreme southwest Kansas. Highs yesterday (Tuesday) ended up being warmer than what was previously thought even with the easterly winds in the lower levels and forecast 850mb temperatures. The highs yesterday when looking back ended up being closer to the 75th to 90th percentile of the NBM guidance.
Another "cooler" day is expected today with low 90s in the west, but some low to mid 80s in the east where more cloud cover and isolated to scattered showers/storms will still be possible.
1135 PM MDT Tue Aug 9 2022 Updated Aviation Discussion Upper level ridging continues over our region today through Wednesday afternoon. Clear skies and hot, but cooler than yesterday for the High Plains region, temperatures today with temperatures returning back into the upper 90s for the rest of the week.
Broad high pressure maintains a dry air mass over the region today with model soundings showing a 30+ degree dew point depression in the 800mb to 400mb layer. Slight pre-frontal warming ahead of the associated surface cold front aided by diabatic heating will boost surface temps to the lower to mid 80s today.
327 AM CDT Wed Aug 10 2022 After some patchy early morning fog, a mostly sunny and warm day will unfold across central Illinois as afternoon high temperatures top out in the lower to middle 80s. High pressure extending from the southern Great Lakes to the Plains has suppressed a persistent frontal boundary southward to the Ohio River early this morning. Some occasional visby reductions have been observed around KIJX and K3LF: however, IR satellite imagery is not yet showing much fog development beneath the ridge axis. Once any early morning fog dissipates, mostly sunny skies will prevail for the remainder of the day with high temperatures in the lower to middle 80s.
The highest potential coverage will likely once again be this afternoon and evening due to heating, although the best chances for rain by then may be south of the area in TX.
1104 PM EDT Tue Aug 9 2022 A cold front will linger near the Ohio River through Wednesday. Drier and less humid conditions arrive late this week into this weekend as high pressure of Canadian origin builds across the area. Another trough supports renewed shower and thunderstorm growth into the early afternoon with locally heavy rainfall the continued threat. Temperatures still warm into the mid to upper 70s, but there will be some potential for locally cooler conditions based on where cloud cover persists the longest.
359 AM CDT Wed Aug 10 2022 Today and Tonight: another cooler than normal day with numerous coverage of storms capable of locally heavy rain is expected across the CWA. The early convection and associated cloud cover will help hold afternoon highs in the mid to upper 80s which is cooler than normal.
Any fog will burn off quickly Wednesday, leaving a mostly sunny sky and highs in the lower to middle 80s by afternoon. 00z surface analysis placed 1018 mb high pressure over northeast IL, with the cool front that was crossing the region last evening south of the Ohio River. Light northeast flow allowed drier air to slowly shift south as dewpoints ranged from the low/mid 60s over the northern CWA to 70F south of I-70. The drier air will promote cooler lows than recent nights, ranging from the upper 50s north of I-72, to mid 60s south of I-70 where overcast skies are more prevalent. With the sunny skies tomorrow, afternoon highs should reach into the lower to middle 80s.
1009 PM MDT Tue Aug 9 2022 Water vapor imagery shows broad upper ridge across the western CONUS, and an upper low drifting offshore the NW Pac coast.
1258 AM EDT Wed Aug 10 2022 The Bermuda high pressure over the area slowly weakens as a cold front approaches from the northwest on Wednesday.
High pressure will build towards our region Wednesday and Wednesday night with lake effect rain and clouds dissipating.
Compared to the last couple of evenings, our temperatures were significantly cooler by mid evening.
In the 20-00Z time-frame, there is the possibility of isolated thunderstorms that could potentially impact some terminals, with the highest probabilities around the immediate Tampa Bay area.
NBM PoPs for today seem reasonable with the best chances favoring the Caprock this afternoon ahead of the drier surface ridging enveloping our NE zones. Regarding highs today, feel we stand a better chance of reaching the warmer NBM's highs compared to the cooler MOS numbers, especially should some clearing materialize later this morning and early afternoon.
/Today through Tuesday/ Key Messages: -Tranquil but warmer today.
1142 PM CDT Tue Aug 9 2022 Stationary front extends from Southern Missouri across far southeast KS and into western OK with high pressure situated from the western Great Lakes into the Mid Mississippi Valley. In the upper levels, ridge is centered over the Four Corners region with water vapor imagery showing a weak impulse over the Ozarks. This is also where the higher PW airmass will be situated. Upper ridging will start to expand east slightly for Wed into Thu which will keep precip chances out of the forecast. By Fri afternoon the upper ridge will be centered over eastern CO/western KS/sw Nebraska. Will introduce some pops for the Mon night through Tue time frame as the upper high sinks slowly south and weakens, which will allow some moonsonal energy to potentially impact central KS.
239 AM EDT Wed Aug 10 2022 Showers and thunderstorms can be expected today south of Pittsburgh as a slow moving cold front exits south.
355 AM CDT Wed Aug 10 2022 Upper ridging will continue to build in to the plains today. As a result, temperatures will be cooler across the east today with highs only in the lower 80s. The upper ridge and dry atmosphere will hold more sway across central SD where highs are still forecast to climb into the 90s.
Satellite imagery this morning depicts a low pressure circulation off of the coast of northern California and Oregon.
239 AM EDT Wed Aug 10 2022 A cold front is making its way across Upper Michigan this morning as a high pressure system shifts away to the SE. Today, the dry cold front sweeps across the UP from the NW. Cold front will pass through the area early Wednesday.
348 AM CDT Wed Aug 10 2022 An upper level ridge over the Northern Rockies will bring warmer temperatures into the High Plains this afternoon. However, a cold front that extends form southeastern Montana across northern South Dakota will keep North Dakota on the cooler side.
1125 PM MDT Tue Aug 9 2022 Key Messages: 1) Thunderstorm activity tailing down for Wednesday Drier air wrapping around eastern side of the upper high and a subsidence inversion has suppressed convection over most of southern CO compared to the last several days. For Wednesday, thunderstorm activity looks even less widespread as northeast winds around the upper high wrap dry air aloft westward. Surface dew points drop back across the plains with some afternoon mixing and although can't entirely rule out a thunderstorm on the Raton Mesa region, it should be a dry and warmer day.
136 AM MDT Wed Aug 10 2022 A dry airmass covers the northern plains, as the upper ridge builds over the Rockies.
1022 PM CDT Tue Aug 9 2022 Mid afternoon temperatures range from the mid 70s in parts of southwest MN to the lower 90s in south central SD. Blocking upper ridging over the Rockies meanders slightly further east on Wednesday. Coupled with mixing into slightly warmer temperatures aloft, this brings a little warmer weather Wednesday.
352 AM EDT Wed Aug 10 2022 Showers and thunderstorms can be expected today mainly south of Pittsburgh as a slow moving cold front exits south.
300 AM CDT Wed Aug 10 2022 06z data has high pressure over the western Great Lakes. A cold front ran from western Lake Superior southwest into South Dakota. Otherwise expect quiet and dry conditions today and tonight as high pressure moves into the Great Lakes.
The cold front is currently stalled slightly north of the IL/KY state border, but is expected to start its slow trek south into the region today. The upper level ridge is currently situated over the 4 corners region and is expected to weaken a bit today, allowing for redevelopment of isolated showers and thunderstorms by mid-morning.
359 AM EDT Wed Aug 10 2022 Discussion/Aviation/Marine --Weak Cold front swings through this evening-- The upper level low situated over Hudson bay will swing through a trough through the region. This will swing a cold front through the area late today into tonight. This trough will swing through tonight into tomorrow. --Mild weather into the weekend-- As the trough moves eastward it will deepen and extend across the mid Atlantic. This will bring a positively tilted ridge build move over the area as high pressure builds over the central plains. Cooler air will advect from the north and allow for mild temperatures for this time of year.
CD Chattanooga Airport, TN 72 87 71 85 68 / 40 80 60 80 20 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 71 87 70 84 67 / 40 90 70 70 10 Oak Ridge, TN 71 85 69 83 66 / 40 90 70 70 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 69 83 68 80 64 / 30 90 70 70 10.
ridging extending north through the Rockies sits between low pressure continuing to spin off the CA/OR coast and troughing digging south into the Great Lakes/Midwest as low pressure spins over Ontario/Hudson Bay region. Models are in good agreement showing little change in the upper level pattern, with the main 500mb area of high pressure remaining centered over the central High Plains. high pressure remains centered off to our east, while low pressure deepens a bit to the west. As far as temperatures go, expecting another bump up from the previous day, with forecast highs in the low-mid 90s CWA- wide. Lows tonight are forecast to drop into the low-mid 60s. The forecast remains dry from mid-week through most of the upcoming weekend, as upper level ridging remains the dominant feature.
Upper ridging will continue to build in to the plains today. As a result, temperatures will be cooler across the east today with highs only in the lower 80s. The upper ridge and dry atmosphere will hold more sway across central SD where highs are still forecast to climb into the 90s.
748 AM EDT Wed Aug 10 2022 Aviation --Weak Cold front swings through this evening-- The upper level low situated over Hudson bay will swing through a trough through the region. This will swing a cold front through the area late today into tonight. This trough will swing through tonight into tomorrow. --Mild weather into the weekend-- As the trough moves eastward it will deepen and extend across the mid Atlantic. This will bring a positively tilted ridge build move over the area as high pressure builds over the central plains. Cooler air will advect from the north and allow for mild temperatures for this time of year.
CAMS were in good agreement in a very slow moving upper trough, PV anomaly/500mb vort, west southwest across the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandle this Wednesday afternoon as a moist upslope flow develops across southeast Colorado and extreme southwest Kansas. Given this moisture, weak low level forcing and late day instability develops ahead of this upper trough there will be a small chance for afternoon thunderstorms across extreme southeast Colorado and possibly even portions of extreme southwest Kansas.
One more good chance for some of those rain cooled starts tomorrow as the upper low flares up again with daytime heating. We can expect another wide range of temperatures with more 90s in many locales, but many of the cooler spots this morning will manage to keep the 80s range for a nice change of pace.
High temperatures for most will top out in the low 80s. Tonight, The upper trough over the eastern CONUS will begin dropping south. This will amplify the northwest flow over the Lower Ohio Valley and push a reinforcing cold front south towards the CWA.
Temperatures in the island chain are in the low to mid 80s, with dew point in the mid 70s. From synopsis, ridge axis associated with high pressure off the Southeast coastline will slowly dip southward today and tonight, resulting in slackening east to southeast breezes. As an upper- level trough approaches the Eastern Seaboard by the end of the week and into the weekend, breezes will slacken further, becoming light to gentle.
A favorable flow pattern for daily thunderstorms will persist through the week as the upper high remains centered near the Four Corners region. More of the same can be expected weather wise today as deep moisture remains in place and an inverted trough tracking westward moves closer to the area. Otherwise, still looking at an active thunderstorm day as the approaching inverted trough helps enhance rain chances this afternoon and evening. Otherwise, the upper high will shift farther NE of the Four Corners region and remain centered there through the rest of the week.
707 AM EDT Wed Aug 10 2022 Showers and thunderstorms can be expected today mainly south of Pittsburgh as a slow moving cold front exits south.
619 AM CDT Wed Aug 10 2022 Upper ridging will continue to build in to the plains today. As a result, temperatures will be cooler across the east today with highs only in the lower 80s. The upper ridge and dry atmosphere will hold more sway across central SD where highs are still forecast to climb into the 90s.
Temperatures will be seasonally warm with low 80s Sierra and low- mid 90s warmer lower valleys.