Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
631 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015 WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
634 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015 THE SYNOPSIS AND NEAR TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER TO CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH TUESDAY.
624 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST AND THROUGH THE STATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
420 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015 Fairly active pattern continues for the lower Missouri River Valley through the middle and later part of this week. For the rest of today a fairly potent outflow boundary has moved across portions of the KC Metro area, with all areas north and east of KC in the lower to middle 80s, and areas west and south of KC in the lower 90s. This low level trough will be rather classic in nature, with a advance of moisture northward and back surface flow ahead of the trough. Behind the low level cyclone, a closed off mid level wave then moves into the area by Tuesday night, which will offer abundant mid level support for ascent.
423 AM PDT SAT APR 18 2015 A weak cold front has moved through the region overnight and will produce slightly cooler temperatures and some breezy winds for the weekend.
1000 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015 A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT.
THE UPPER LOW HAS SHIFTED EASTWARD AND IS SPINNING OVER COLORADO. CLOSER TO 18Z WITH THE SUPPORT FROM THE UPPER DYNAMICS OF THE UPPER LOW. DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY: THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EASTWARD AND LOBES OF VORTICITY ARE EXPECTED TO CIRCLE AROUND IT WHICH COULD SPARK MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHERN KANSAS. THE UPPER LOW WILL TRAVERSE THE STATE SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE STATE AND SHIFT WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST AND GUSTY.
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 76 62 76 61 / 40 100 90 60 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 78 61 76 61 / 40 100 90 60 OAK RIDGE, TN 77 62 75 60 / 30 100 90 60 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 80 58 75 56 / 30 70 90 60 NC.
833 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING. WEAK LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL RIDE SOUTHEAST ALONG THIS FRONT ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM. HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS THIS SYSTEM TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.
WITH THAT IN MIND HAVE ADJUSTED THE HIGH TEMPERATURE IN THAT AREA CLOSER TO A 925MB DRY ADIABATICALLY SUPPORTED TEMPERATURE IN THAT ARE AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S ARE LIKELY IN THAT AREA TODAY. ON SUNDAY, AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS RIGHT OVER US AND THIS WILL LIKELY BE THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ALONG THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST THROUGH TONIGHT.
627 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS TODAY, RESULTING IN ANOTHER WARM AND DRY DAY. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A SLOW-MOVING UPPER LOW OVER COLORADO WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE KILX CWA. AS A RESULT, MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE LOW WILL EJECT EASTWARD AND OPEN UP OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT GRADUALLY BECOMES ABSORBED INTO THE NORTHERN STREAM.
932 AM MDT SAT APR 18 2015 COLD FRONT HAS PENETRATED MOST OF NORTH-CENTRAL MONTANA THIS MORNING. RADAR SHOWS AN AREA OF PRECIPITATION BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. PRECIPITATION WILL END QUICKLY AS THE TROF PASSES.
639 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015 THE PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO CONTINUES TO SHOW A SLOWING TREND. COULD SEE GREATER COVERAGE ALONG THE WESTERN FRINGES OF THE CWA LATE EVENING AND SHIFTING EASTWARD OVERNIGHT WITH THE COLD FRONT ADVANCING THROUGH THE REGION.
SLOW MOVING CLOSED UPPER LOW PROGGED TO MOVE FROM CENTRAL COLORADO THIS MORNING TO EAST CENTRAL COLORADO BY DINNER TIME. WHILE DROPPING CHEYENNE FROM THE ADVISORY WITH TEMPERATURES LIKELY REMAINING ABOVE FREEZING AND THUS MINIMAL IMPACTS TO TRAVEL. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE PLAINS BY LATE THIS EVENING (AFTER 03Z) WITH BREEZY NORTH WINDS.
AT THAT POINT IT WILL STALL AND THEN SHIFT EAST INTO THIS EVENING AS A NORTHERN STREAM KICKER PUSHES THE CLOSED UPPER LOW INTO THE PLAINS. WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING AROUND LARAMIE AND THE RELATIVELY HIGH APRIL SUN ANGLE. IT IS LIKELY THERE WILL BE SOME SMALL HAIL TODAY AND WITH LOW FREEZING LEVELS. SLOW MOVING CLOSED UPPER LOW PROGGED TO MOVE FROM CENTRAL COLORADO THIS MORNING TO EAST CENTRAL COLORADO BY DINNER TIME. WHILE DROPPING CHEYENNE FROM THE ADVISORY WITH TEMPERATURES LIKELY REMAINING ABOVE FREEZING AND THUS MINIMAL IMPACTS TO TRAVEL. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE PLAINS BY LATE THIS EVENING (AFTER 03Z) WITH BREEZY NORTH WINDS.
656 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015 ANOTHER UNSETTLED DAY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS COLORADO CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PUSH EASTWARD. EXPECT A COLD FRONT TO WORK ITS WAY DOWN FROM THE NORTH. THE UPPER LOW FINALLY MOVES THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING. THE UPPER LOW STARTS TO OPEN AS IT MOVES THROUGH. THE MAIN TROUGH IS THROUGH THE AREA BY MID DAY. COOLER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE UPPER LOW AND EXPECT COOLER TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT.
TODAY IS THE DAY IN WHICH THE CLOSED LOW OVER COLORADO WILL FINALLY EXIT TO OUR EAST. AS THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER SHIFTS EAST THIS EVENING.
This feature is forecast to form a weak closed low over the far northern portion of the state this afternoon, and may provide enough instability for a few late day showers and thunderstorms over the northern mountains. Otherwise, the remainder of the area will continue to see warm and dry conditions as most areas are starting off considerably warmer than 24 hours ago.
958 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015 A DRY COLD FRONT WILL DROP DOWN OUT OF NEW YORK AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTH FROM THE GULF AREA SUNDAY BRINGING QUITE A BIT OF RAIN WITH IT. AFTER THE LOW MOVES EAST. I INCREASED THE HIGH TEMPERATURE AROUND 5 DEGREES FOR THIS AFTERNOON BASED ON MORNING SOUNDING DATA. FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH THE LOW APPROACHING SUNDAY. AT LEAST UNTIL THE LOW MOVES OVERHEAD SUNDAY EVENING. SHORT RANGE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT MOVING THE LOW DIRECTLY OVER THE CWA SO CONFIDENCE IS PRETTY HIGH WE/LL SEE RAIN.
512 AM MDT SAT APR 18 2015 UPPER LOW NEAR WALSENBURG AT THIS TIME TRACKING SLOWLY EAST. BUT THIS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE DURING THE DAY AS EVERYTHING CONTINUES TO SPIN AROUND THE LOW CENTER MOVING SLOWLY EAST. BUT THE LOW LEVELS REMAIN MOIST AND THE COLD POOL ALOFT WILL BE OVER THIS AREA. AND THERE WILL BE SOME LIFT FROM THE TIP OF THE WARM ADVECTION NEAR THE LOW CENTER. FOR TONIGHT THE BACK EDGE BAND WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS OUR AREA AS THE LOW MOVES EAST. HOWEVER AIR TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ABOVE FREEZING IN MOST AREAS.
954 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015 DRY AND WARMER WEATHER WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ON SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT. ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. WITH THE SLOWING PROGRESSION OF THE WARM FRONT. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL DRY SLOT WILL MOVE IN WITH THE WARMER AIR SUNDAY NIGHT.
637 AM CDT Sat Apr 18 2015 Upper level low pressure over the central Rockies during the predawn hours will slowly move east and open up later today and tonight as additional upper level energy dives southeast across the southern Canadian provinces. mid-level short wave troughs and theta-e advection) that provide a focus for shower and thunderstorm activity through tonight. That upper level wave will track right over the Missouri Ozarks on Sunday with a cold front moving southeast through the area from late Sunday afternoon into Sunday evening.
/ISSUED 354 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015/ A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SPIN ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THIS MORNING WHILE SLOWLY LIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST. THE AIRMASS OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL BECOME SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE AS DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE LOWER 60S AND TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 70S. AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST AND TRANSITIONS TO AN OPEN WAVE ON SUNDAY. THE MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH SHOULD ERODE ANY RESIDUAL EARLY DAY CAPPING AND ALLOW FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR. ALONG AND AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SURFACE COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT.
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A WIND SHIFT FROM NW TO SE OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. RAIN CHANCES THIS MORNING LOOK TO BE MAINLY CONFINED TO LOCATIONS EAST OF I-35 WHERE MOST LATEST RADAR ECHOES WERE OCCURRING FROM A WEAK IMPULSE ROTATING AROUND A MID/UPPER LOW IN SOUTHERN COLORADO. WENT WITH THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES THINKING SOME SUN WILL OCCUR.
921 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015 WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE TRENDS OF THE 10-13 UTC HRRR ITERATIONS WHICH KEEP THE BAND OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND EASTERN NEBRASKA IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW FOR THE MOST PART TO THE SOUTH OF NORTH DAKOTA UNTIL 22-24 UTC THIS EVENING GIVEN DRY EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW PRECEDING THIS SYSTEM. BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON ARE ACROSS THE WEST AS A COLD FRONT ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA THIS MORNING ENTERS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. AS TWO UPPER LEVEL LOWS CONVERGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH SATURDAY. DEEPENING TROUGH CLOSES OFF OVER MANITOBA WHILE LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WASHES INTO THE NORTHERN SYSTEM.
Upper level low pressure over the central Rockies during the predawn hours will slowly move east and open up later today and tonight as additional upper level energy dives southeast across the southern Canadian provinces. mid-level short wave troughs and theta-e advection) that provide a focus for shower and thunderstorm activity through tonight. That upper level wave will track right over the Missouri Ozarks on Sunday with a cold front moving southeast through the area from late Sunday afternoon into Sunday evening.
MOST OF THE LOW CLOUDINESS HAS DISSIPATED SOUTH AND EAST OF A LINE FROM JEKYLL ISLAND TO OCALA. WINDS BEGIN TO INCREASE AND VEER OUT AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT SUNDAY.
902 AM MDT SAT APR 18 2015 ALLOWED FREEZE WARNING TO EXPIRE FOR THE CORTEZ AND NUCLA AREAS AS TEMPS THERE ARE JUST ABOVE FREEZING OR WILL BE SO SHORTLY. TODAY IS THE DAY IN WHICH THE CLOSED LOW OVER COLORADO WILL FINALLY EXIT TO OUR EAST. AS THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER SHIFTS EAST THIS EVENING.
1033 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015 HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON. UNTIL LOW PRESSURE LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE CAROLINAS SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
AT 9 AM MST NARROW BAND OF CLOUDS HAS APPEARED ALONG WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH SALMON ID AND BURNS/OR. POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER ALONG WITH GUSTY NW WINDS.
645 AM CDT Sat Apr 18 2015 Overview: Closed and cut-off upper low now over central CO will be the primary weather driver for the weekend. Today - Sunday: While eyes have been fixated on the closed upper low now over CO/NM the real weather makers will be periodic vorticity lobes and associated layered frontogenesis that rotate northeast out from under the upper low. Even still this is a forecast which will need adjusting throughout the day as the convection tied to the upper low has had repeated false starts as well as expanding too fast to the east. The upper low will have opened up by then and will accelerate eastward. Anticipate convection increasing as it moves east through the CWA in response to improving upper level dynamics and low-level convergence associated with a cold front.
WHICH IS ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT THAT WILL BE PUSHING NORTHWARD. THE CLOSED LOW ROTATING OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS FOR THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. AHEAD OF THIS CLOSED LOW. ANOTHER RIPPLE IN MID LEVEL FLOW AND ASSOCIATED SPEED MAX WILL HELP PUSH A WARM FRONT NORTH OF THE AREA THIS EVENING. AND LOW LEVEL HELICITY VALUES INCREASE SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT AS 0-6KM SHEAR INCREASES TO AROUND 40KTS AFTER 09Z. AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED CLOSED LOW. SYNOPTIC FORCING WEAKENS AS THE CLOSED LOW OPENS AND PULLS AWAY FROM THE AREA.
857 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015 A FRONT IS SLOWLY MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE MIDDLE AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW OVER THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE. THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL SLOWLY DRIFT TO THE EAST THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING AHEAD OF THE TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE FRONT RANGE. THE TROUGH WILL NOT REACH THE KEYS AREA.
710 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015 A DRY COLD FRONT WILL DROP DOWN OUT OF NEW YORK AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
AND THEN BECOME NORTH AFTER 00Z SUNDAY 10 TO 20 KNOTS FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT BY EARLY THIS EVENING. /ISSUED 457 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015/ A CLOSED UPPER LOW ALONG THE CENTRAL CO/NM BORDER EARLY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST TODAY.
634 PM CDT THU APR 14 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY PROVIDING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY CONDITIONS AT TIMES.
18Z SFC DATA HAS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH A WEAK LOW IN COLORADO. QUIET AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
RIDGING ALOFT WILL SUPPORT BROAD HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. 500 MB RIDGING WILL BE BUILDING IN PLACE OVER TX AND NORTHEAST MEX THROUGHOUT TOMORROW NIGHT WHICH WILL MAINTAIN VERY WARM TEMPS AND RAIN FREE CONDITIONS FOR THE RGV. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE SHIFTING AROUND FROM THE E TO SE STARTING TONIGHT WITH LOW LEVEL WAA CONTINUING THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT.
/ISSUED 337 PM CDT THU APR 14 2016/ WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER EASTERN ARKANSAS MOVING SLOWLY EAST TOWARD THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WITH TROUGH AXIS FROM THE LOW EXTENDING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS AND MAINLY EAST OF THE SABINE RIVER BASIN. AND RELATIVELY COOLER AIR ALOFT. UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT OFF TO THE EAST AND FURTHER INTO THE GULF SOUTH REGION ON FRIDAY. WITH TROUGH AXIS ALSO MOVING OFF TO THE EAST. LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND DISTURBANCE FROM THE WEST COAST WILL MOVE INTO THE ROCKIES. WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING DOWN FROM THE NORTHEAST U. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP WITH RATHER BREEZY EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS KEEPING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ON THE HIGH SIDE.
719 PM EDT THU APR 14 2016 A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN CLEAR SKIES THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW. ISSUED 257 PM EDT THU APR 14 2016 LONGWAVE RIDGE AMPLIFICATION OVER THE GREAT LAKES IS UNDERWAY AS HEIGHT FALLS INTENSIFY OVER THE WESTERN AND SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES. MIXING HEIGHTS WILL STAGNATE BENEATH THE RIDGE.
628 PM CDT THU APR 14 2016 WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE WESTERN PLAINS TONIGHT. BUT THE LOWER BRULE AREA IS ALWAYS A LITTLE TRICKY WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW AND IT WILL BE MONITORED.
751 PM EDT THU APR 14 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
A WEAK SHORT WAVE ALONG THE GULF AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER AR THIS EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO BRING OCCASIONAL BANDS OF CLOUDS INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION THIS TAF PERIOD.
647 PM CDT THU APR 14 2016 THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS EASTERN ARKANSAS. THIS LOW WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE EASTWARD AND LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE EAST THROUGH TONIGHT. WITH ALL THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE EXPECT FOG TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WITH LOW CEILINGS AND LOWERING VISIBILITIES.
753 PM EDT THU APR 14 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. AND INCREASINGLY WARMER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
610 PM CDT THU APR 14 2016 FOR 00Z TAFS /ISSUED 251 PM CDT THU APR 14 2016/ COURTESY OF AN UPPER LOW OVER ARKANSAS. THE INFLUENCE OF STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE HUDSON BAY EXTENDED SOUTHWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST. KEPT THE HIGHER RAIN CHANCES SOUTH OF THE TENNESSEE RIVER. ALSO LEANED TO THE COOLER NAM AND SUPERBLEND REGARDING HIGH TEMPS ON FRIDAY. WILL BECOME A DEEP UPPER LOW OFF OF THE EAST COAST.
703 PM EDT THU APR 14 2016 HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION WILL KEEP FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
738 PM EDT THU APR 14 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST AND EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW STILL VALID -> A MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AS A CLOSED LOW SLOWLY ROTATES SOUTHEAST OVER THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY. AS THE MID LVL RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY. AFOREMENTIONED CLOSED LOW WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO ROTATE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. MODELS INDICATE SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH THIS TROUGH. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM EACH DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO THE LOWER 70S EXPECTED.
A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ORGANIZE NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND TSTMS TOWARDS THE END OF THIS FCST PERIOD AND BEYOND.
/issued 253 PM CDT THU APR 14 2016/ A significant change in the weather pattern will develop by Friday as an upper level low pressure system tracks from the west Coast and stalls across the southern Rockies through the weekend. By Friday the upper low is forecast to dig south to Arizona by late in the day. Forecast soundings indicate the potential for the cap to erode by late Friday afternoon across the northern and central Permian Basin due to moisture advection and large scale lift increasing ahead of the upper low.
646 PM CDT THU APR 14 2016 High pressure expected to hold over eastern Canada with a ridge axis extending southwest through the south-central Plains tonight bringing another quiet night to the forecast area. After that, upper level ridging is forecast to strengthen over the Midwest as a deep storm system shifts east into the southern Rockies over the weekend.
726 PM EDT THU APR 14 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE FAIR WEATHER AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. CONTD WARMING XPCD THIS PD IN ASSOCN/W SHARPENING LL THERMAL RIDGE UNDER BLDG RIDGE ALOFT ACRS THE LAKES. STEADY EXPANSION OF LL THERMAL RIDGE ALG W/MID APRIL FULL INSOLATION WILL FVR WARMEST BOUND OF GUIDANCE TEMPS THROUGH MON W/INCREMENTAL POSITIVE CHGS WARRANTED TO EXISTING TEMP GRIDS THROUGHOUT THE PD. A BIT LTR TREND NOTED W/WEAK BACKDOOR CDFNT DROPPING THROUGH THE ERN OH VALLEY/GREAT LAKES LATE MON AS SHARP UPR TROUGH DVLPS OVR SE CANADA. WHILE SOME EROSION OF LL THERMAL TROUGH XPCD TUE INTO WED. THIS SYSTEM WILL KEEP DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS WITH WINDS GENERALLY EAST AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS.
455 AM EST THU NOV 26 2015 WITH STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING HOLDING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH FRIDAY. OPTED TO CONTINUE TO FOLLOW THE WARMER MAV GUIDANCE NUMBERS FOR TEMPERATURES TODAY. LOWS TONIGHT WILL AGAIN FEATURE A STRONG RIDGE TO VALLEY SPREAD AS ANOTHER STRONG INVERSION SETS UP. WE SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S IN THE VALLEYS AND AROUND 50 ON THE RIDGES. THEY ALL SUPPRESS A SOUTHEAST RIDGE THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS A RESULT OF ONE AREA OF TROUGHING MOVING EAST THROUGH THE QUEBEC TERRITORY WHILE ANOTHER IS FOUND OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.
SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLEAR EARLY TODAY WITH A WIDE RANGE IN TEMPERATURES FROM THE LOWER 30S IN THE VALLEYS TO MID TO UPPER 40S ALONG THE RIDGE TOPS AT 300 AM. RIDGING ALOFT STRENGTHENS TODAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS THE UPPER LOW SPINS OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND DIGS FARTHER SOUTH. A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND EXTENDING SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS MORNING WILL ONLY VERY SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHEAST.
Upper ridging continues to build into the CWA today.
449 AM EST THU NOV 26 2015 STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WEDGED FROM THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES INTO FRIDAY.
341 AM CST THU NOV 26 2015 CURRENT SYNOPTIC PATTERN/SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES WITH ELONGATED SOUTHWEST FLOW REGIME STRETCHING ALL THE WAY INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEASTERN STATES. NOW THE OTHER HAZARD OF CONCERN IS FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS THIS PERIOD. AS COLDER SUB- FREEZING AIR UNDERCUTS THIS WARMER MOIST AIR ALOFT. THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SURGE SOUTHWARD TODAY WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES DROPPING BELOW FREEZING ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON. AND ICE ACCUMULATION FROM FREEZING RAIN/MIXED WITH SLEET AT TIMES SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPACT LOCATIONS MAINLY NORTHWEST OF A SALINA TO HUTCHINSON LINE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL PRODUCE A SECOND ROUND OF FREEZING RAIN ACROSS MAINLY SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS FOR FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT.
347 AM CST THU NOV 26 2015 CANADIAN COLD FRONT HAS MOVED SOUTH TO THE CANADIAN RIVER VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING. LEAD SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT HAS DEVELOPED OUR FIRST ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. COLD AIR DEEPENS TONIGHT AND FREEZING RAIN DEVELOPS AS THE WARM AIR OVERRIDES THE COLD DOME. ALSO WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW STAYING PRETTY MUCH PUT IN THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN.
WITH RAIN CHANGING TO FREEZING RAIN. IT WILL BE AHEAD OF WARMER AIR ALOFT THOUGH 925 MB TEMPERATURES DO COOL THEN MIXED TO THE SFC. QUESTION IS WHAT IS THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN. ROAD TEMPERATURES TODAY ARE IN THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S WITH 2 INCH SUB SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 40S. METRO ROAD FORECASTS FOR THE STATE DO SHOW TEMPERATURES FALLING WITH PRECIPITATION ONSET THEN WILL BE SLOW TO FALL BELOW FREEZING EVEN AS AIR TEMPERATURES FALL TO NEAR TO SLIGHT BELOW FREEZING. ELEVATED SURFACES SUCH AS TOPS OF TREES AND HIGHER POWER LINES MAY ACCUMULATE FASTER WITH TEMPERATURES ALOFT AT THOSE LOCATIONS A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN AT THE SURFACE. THE PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN LOOKS LIMITED TO 1 TO 3 HOURS OVER NORTHERN IOWA AND AS THE PRECIPITATION NEARING AND END.
RIDGING ALOFT RESULTING IN SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE REGION. HIGHS BOTH TODAY AND FRIDAY WILL TOP OUT IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 70S. A COLD FRONT TRYING TO SHIFT EAST TOWARD THE REGION FRIDAY. WILL MEET SOME RESISTANCE AS BOTH RIDGING ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE HOLD FIRM ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
255 AM EST THU NOV 26 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAINED ANCHORED TO OUR EAST TODAY AND THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AROUND IT WILL WARM THINGS UP FOR THANKSGIVING DAY.
A COLD UPPER LOW WILL MEANDER AROUND THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH THE THANKSGIVING WEEKEND. THE COLD UPPER LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE GREAT BASIN THIS EVENING WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT HAVING SHIFTED OUT OF THE CWA. DRIER AIR HAS PUNCHED INTO WRN UT IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT AND HAS SPREAD NORTH INTO THE CENTRAL WASATCH FRONT SHUTTING DOWN MOST OF THE PRECIP SOUTH OF THE MAIN BAND EXCEPT FOR A LITTLE OROGRAPHICS OVER THE SRN MTNS. A VORT MAX IN SRN NV IS FORECAST TO ROTATE NEWD AROUND THE UPPER LOW AND BRING A RENEWED THREAT OF SNOW TO SWRN UT LATER TONIGHT LIFTING THRU CENTRAL AND NERN UT TOMORROW. CANCELLED WIND ADVISORY FOR SERN UT EARLIER AS WINDS DROPPED OFF BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
253 AM EST THU NOV 26 2015 STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER NOVA SCOTIA WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN MAINE LATE IN THE DAY FRIDAY AND SWEEP ACROSS THE DOWNEAST REGION FRIDAY EVENING.
401 AM EST THU NOV 26 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL DRIFT EASTWARD THROUGH FRIDAY. GIVING WAY TO A COLD FRONT LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL RUN 5-10 DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS WEST OF THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU. A QUIET EVENING IS IN STORE FOR MIDDLE TENNESSEE WITH RETREATING HIGH PRESSURE STILL IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER FOR NOW. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN 5-10 DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS WEST OF THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU.