Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Models show a warm front developing across/lifting into extreme southern portions of the PAH forecast area or just south of our counties by late today.
313 PM EST Fri Mar 9 2018 Upper level low pressure over New England this afternoon will slowly move away from the east coast this weekend.
A surface warm front will develop across the Dakotas ahead of this system that will drift into western Minnesota by daybreak Saturday. Clouds will continue to increase on Saturday as the warm front continues to move closer to the Northland. This will also bring an inverted trough into the western reaches of the Northland resulting in better upper level support, but this will be more in the Saturday night time period.
For today, a weak trough will work into northwest Oklahoma, which will keep wind speeds light, but very dry conditions will keep fire weather conditions a bit elevated. Stronger wave will drop southeast out of the central Plains Saturday night, pushing a cold front south through the area. This will push any precip chances to our east with a cooler airmass replacing the rather warm one that we will see the next couple of days. Both GFs and ECMWF bring reinforcing shot of cooler air south into the CONUS. However, the GFS is more a glancing blow with the cooler air remaining to our northeast, while the ECMWF brings it south into the area.
138 PM EST Fri Mar 9 2018 Low pressure over eastern Nova Scotia will back westward across the Gulf of St.
Temperatures will be a few degrees warmer today high temps should warm into the lower to mid 70's. On Saturday, low pressure near the panhandle will move east. Warm 850 temps support high temps reaching the lower 80's. As the low departs it will drag a cold front across the area between 09-12z. SE TX will also lie in the subsident region of the jet so rain chances with the front should remain on the low side.
14 UTC surface analysis shows an area of high pressure across the region. Temperatures have warmed into the lower 50s after a chilly start with a light freeze at nearly all inland stations.
Otherwise, highs will be a few degrees warmer than yesterday, warmest in the southwest and southeast Panhandle where highs will be 10 to 15 degrees above seasonable values, and light northwest-north breezes will prevail today. Latest water vapor imagery shows a broad upper-level ridge in place over the western and central CONUS and the next disturbance digging into British Columbia and WA. Neutral to slightly positive 500 hPa height rises will occur overhead with the ridge remaining largely in place over the Northern and Central Plains. Otherwise, lee-side troughing is expected again as it sharpens and evolves northward near the Front Range to Laramie mountains.
A warm front will develop across southern portions of MO and IL today. High temperatures will be warmer today, particularly across central and southeast MO. The surface/boundary layer should be too dry for any measurable precipitation today near the warm front, but could not rule out sprinkles across southeast MO and southwest IL this afternoon. A southwesterly low level jet will bring increasing low level moisture into this area tonight with showers expected across southern portions of MO and IL, south of Interstate 70 along the nearly east to west oriented warm front. Although there will be initially some evaporative cooling as the low levels saturate, it still appears that the precipitation type should be liquid rain tonight, with maybe a brief period of sleet possible in southwest IL.
This disturbance will approach and pass over the area during the day Saturday, with the cold front moving through during the early part of the day. Additionally there is a chance for snow across northern and eastern Nebraska as the upper low and cooler air move overhead.
Sct -SHRA may develop after 08Z across Deep E and extreme Ern TX, as well as N LA/Srn AR, and thus have maintained VCSH in late for all but the TYR/GGG terminals as a warm front begins to lift N across the area. While cigs should improve by afternoon across much of the area, sct convection is expected to develop late in the day over SW AR/N LA near the warm front. Thus, the high temperature forecast for this afternoon was raised by several degrees for the entire area.
The latest model data has been showing a northward shift in the track of the low pressure system, and therefore the highest snowfall totals and the forecast snow band overall. For the areas where 1 to 3 inches of snow is expected, locally higher amounts will be possible, especially along ridge tops and in the higher terrain along the West Virginia border. The highest snowfall amounts are now expected north of the Hal Rogers Parkway and Highway 80 corridor. Temperatures will fall into the lower 30s across most of the area overnight. Saturday nights lows should not be too bad, with min values ranging from the lower 30s north of the Mountain Parkway, to between 35 and 41 south of the there.
Drying out in the afternoon in the wake of the upper trough axis. Mostly clear and colder in the wake of the cold frontal passage and with lessening winds.
/Today through Tonight/ Ridge of high pressure is now over far eastern Iowa and will move slowly east today while a broad area of low pressure will remain to the west of the state. That said, highs should be several degrees warmer than the past few days.
An upper-level ridge over the western US with a broad area of low pressure over the Canadian Maritimes will remain in place Saturday evening. An inverted trough will stretch northward toward the Red River Valley into the western portions of the forecast area, supporting a chance of light snow overnight.
Otherwise, some clearing continues across the southwest and expecting the low-level cloud deck to erode or move east and give way to more of cirrus deck tonight into Saturday morning.
Lows will drop to the lower 20s in the generally clearing northern half of the CWA, around 30 south of the Ohio River with increased sky cover and moisture. High pressure at the surface will build in from the northwest and strengthen.
Upper-level jet structure will promote warm frontogenesis over the Lower Ohio Valley later today, and fairly vigorous mid-level lift will start to organize some banded precip. Boundary-layer temps will remain near or even above freezing throughout the event, but given the dynamics in place the precip type will be largely rate-driven. High pressure will try to nose in from the north, but the air mass isn't very cold and a decent temp recovery is expected.
Temps will generally peak in the low to mid 30s this afternoon. Overnight composite analysis reveals deep troughing through the Great Lakes and New England with a closed mid level circulation swinging into New England.
A surface warm front is currently making its way northward across southern Missouri this afternoon and will become nearly stationary this evening. This will push the aforementioned frontal boundary southward through the area, allowing for some cooler air to filter in behind it.
High pressure will build over the region tonight through Saturday night.
Anything that does develop should be elevated as south to southwesterly flow in the mid levels today has helped to warm this layer to keep the low levels capped. In addition, a coastal trough/warm front will move inland during the afternoon and evening which will help to increase moisture. Cold front timing has slowed a bit and likely will not be through most of the area by 12Z.
*High for cigs aob 5kft The upper low which impacted the region over the last couple of days has exited to the east of the Great Lakes and will reside over New England today. This wave will become highly sheared as it enters the mid level confluent flow across the Great Lakes region left in the wake of the departing upper low.
A weak warm front will move up across the mid-south late today and is expected to bring showers to the area tonight.
These easterly winds will veer NW by late Saturday morning ahead of an upper trough grazing the TX Panhandle by later in the day. This wave will deliver a respectable cold front by Saturday afternoon across our NE zones, followed by a reinforcement of cooler air and gusty NE winds overnight. Ahead of this front, the low level thermal ridge should become quite pronounced by midday as very dry downslope winds boost compressional warming.
With surface temps only dropping to around freezing south of I-70, little or no snow accumulation is expected.
245 PM CST Fri Mar 9 2018 18Z surface data has high pressure from the upper Midwest into the Ohio Valley. Dew points in the 30s and higher were across the lower Mississippi Valley and southern Plains. medium confidence The large scale picture has high pressure over the Great Lakes providing dry easterly flow across the area.
Low cloud progress northward has been hampered by the high clouds overhead, and models have been overly aggressive. Have slowed the timing of the low cloud expansion this morning, although most areas will still see a brief period of MVFR cigs. /issued 407 AM CST Fri Mar 9 2018/ (Today and Tonight) Warmer across West Central Texas this morning, as south winds combine with a veil of high cloudiness. Most areas are in the low to mid 50s. This veil will continue into the day on Saturday, but enough sunshine to allow for warmer temperatures this afternoon. Highs will range from the mid 70s across the Hill Country (where clouds will be thickest) to the lower 80s across the western Big Country (where more sun is expected).
This will initiate across the coastal waters during the pre-dawn hours as the warm front moves back north. This could result in some brief strong to severe thunderstorms along the warm front, with a brief tornado or two possible.
Said discrepancies are largely due to differences in the track of the trough, with the GFS being slightly farther north. The main story will be gradually moderating temps as mid-level ridging works across the central CONUS as a western CONUS trough amplifies.
Light winds are expected again tonight, and temperatures will fall into the mid to upper 30s inland and the low to mid 40s along the coast. Dry conditions will prevail, with south to southwesterly low level flow leading to warmer temperatures. Highs will be in the low to mid 70s on Saturday.
Quiet weather will continue as weak high pressure ridge moves slowly eastward across the western Great Lakes. Upstream mid-level warm air advection ahead of short wave trof moving into the northern Plains will result in increasing mid-high clouds over srn WI late tonight and Saturday.
Meanwhile a low pressure system has developed in the lee of the Rockies and moved east into the central and southern Plains states. As this occurred, a warm front has been steadily developing over eastern KS into southern MO and west KY today. This warm front will continue to strengthen and extend further eastward into our area with time. Models are still not in great agreement when it comes to location of this developing activity but anywhere in the vicinity of the warm front will have a chance.
1016 AM MST Fri Mar 9 2018 Flat upper ridge will shift east today as weak warm front lifts northeast across western South Dakota. Low level thermal ridge peaks this afternoon.
An upper level trough will pass by mainly to our north, while an upper disturbance in western Oregon moves toward our area. The showers will decrease tonight as the trough and disturbance move to our east.
Ahead of this feature, a warm front currently positioned across eastern Kansas and western Missouri will lift north slightly before stalling across central Missouri Saturday afternoon.
However, sounding profiles suggest plenty of dry air in the lower levels that should keep the area dry. Early this morning, high pressure was located across the area. This area will see the lowest temperatures today as clouds move into the area. Tonight, slightly stronger winds and southerly flow will lead to warmer temperatures than this morning as our next system moves towards our area.
1144 AM CST Fri Mar 9 2018 Quiet conditions and warmer temperatures are expected today as temperatures increase aloft, even despite light easterly flow at the surface.
1243 PM EST Fri Mar 9 2018 Low pressure will continue to support periodic snow showers today. Dry weather returns Saturday under high pressure. 10:15am update: Changes to the forecast were generally cosmetic, although PoPs were bumped up slightly higher in the vicinity of where the high-resolution models are showing potential banding setting up this afternoon. The mid level trough axis should cross the area early this morning, with a gradual decrease in coverage thereafter. Boundary layer convergence and some lake enhancement should continue early this morning N of I 80, with terrain enhancement in the ridges. Mainly dry weather is expected through the weekend under high pressure.
High pressure will hold on through tonight keeping skies mainly clear with light winds. Temperatures will moderate some with highs in the lower to middle 70s.
Only some mid level cloud will accompany this system as the lower to mid levels will be too dry for precipitation to reach the ground.
105 PM EST Fri Mar 9 2018 Low pressure will continue to support periodic snow showers this afternoon. Dry weather returns Saturday under high pressure. 10:15am update: Changes to the forecast were generally cosmetic, although PoPs were bumped up slightly higher in the vicinity of where the high-resolution models are showing potential banding setting up this afternoon. The mid level trough axis should cross the area early this morning, with a gradual decrease in coverage thereafter. Boundary layer convergence and some lake enhancement should continue early this morning N of I 80, with terrain enhancement in the ridges. Mainly dry weather is expected through the weekend under high pressure.
314 PM CST Fri Mar 9 2018 Challenge for the short term will be light snow chances as WAA in the low and mid levels works into the Devils Lake basin and eventually into the RRV through the overnight.
The pressure gradient tightens again on Saturday as a short wave trough passes to our northeast sending a cold front south through the area. The cold air will actually lag behind the cold front and will not move into the area until Saturday night.
High temperatures today will be tricky based upon the location of the warm front and as such expect temperatures to range from the mid 50s northeast to the upper 60s southwest across the cwa.
As the high pushes off the Florida Atlantic coast, southwest winds will lead to gradually increasing moisture tonight into Saturday. By midday, a surface boundary will become nearly stationary across north Georgia, and showers will begin to increase in the afternoon in association with upper disturbances ahead of a digging upper trough.
Have some VCSH mentioned at central and southern terminals after 08z, but did not lower vsby or take ceilings down to IFR levels due to the high uncertainty.
237 PM MST Fri Mar 9 2018 Scattered light snow is falling in the high mountains early this afternoon. Models have strong west- northwesterly flow aloft for the CWA tonight into Saturday with a weak upper trough to push across mid day Saturday. The QPF fields have a tad of measurable precipitation in the high mountains tonight and Saturday. For temperatures, Saturday highs will be 5-7 C cooler than today's. Expect readings in the teens to low 20s over the plains, and really dropping over the high mountain valleys into the single digits.
High pressure over the Florida Peninsula will move quickly to the east into the Atlantic waters tonight into Saturday allowing for the winds flow to become more easterly tonight into Saturday allowing for some warming to occur over South Florida.
This is helping to keep the lowest half of the atmosphere rather dry and is likely why the radar returns being shown across central KY and northern Middle TN aren't reaching the ground. The bigger and more dynamic system of the forecast begins to ramp up tomorrow afternoon off to our west as a fairly intense closed low dives into the mid-Mississippi valley region. Models have not been in great agreement regarding the track of this low, however this latest suite of guidance has provided probably the closest solutions I've seen this week.
310 PM CST Fri Mar 9 2018 Weak ridging will bring quiet weather to the area through much of the night, but an approaching piece of energy will not allow that quiet to last very long.
To the north of this low, a cold front wil push SE across NW KS and into central and southern KS by Sat afternoon. As the low treks east on Sat, think the best chance for measurable rainfall amounts will be during the daytime hours, for areas south of Highway 54/400, with the highest amounts less than a tenth of an inch along the KS/OK border. As the cold front pushes south, both the GFS and Nam/Wrf do show some FN convergence increasing.
Given continued easterly upslope flow, conditions Friday will be similar to today, that is, below normal high temperatures in the 80s for most of the area, as well as diurnally driven convection across the higher terrain and adjacent plains.
Tonight and Friday The latest RAP analysis and satellite/radar imagery show high pressure stretching from northwest Ontario to the western Great Lakes early this afternoon. Though return flow continues over the Plains, forecast concerns revolve around temps tonight as high pressure remains over the area. High pressure will be centered directly over the region tonight, leading to clear skies and light winds. Highs will be a couple degrees warmer than todays readings. High pressure influence will still keep the eastern forecast area dry during this time.
Weak low pressure/associated trough axis to lift northeast from just off the west FL coast into the central FL peninsula overnight.
Another cool night on tap with high pressure, clear skies, and light winds forecast. Warmer temperatures will be found in central Minnesota where lows will be in the low 50s. Clouds start to build in from the south Friday morning due to isentropic ascent along a warm front over western through southeast Minnesota. Temperatures will trend cooler for areas under clouds and rain, with slightly warmer conditions where mainly sunny to partly cloudy skies persist through afternoon. Highs in central Minnesota will be in the middle 60s to the low 70s in north- central Minnesota and around 70 degrees in north-central Wisconsin.
Kept IFR mention at KSPS and KLAW though confidence is not the highest as conditions at these two sites may be MVFR. /issued 336 PM CDT Thu Aug 24 2017/ Region of modest lower level theta-e advection, beneath slow moving low amplitude trof expected to yield scattered shower, and isolated storm, development overnight across western Oklahoma and adjacent parts of northern Texas.
Some isolated storms possible on Friday although they should favor the higher terrain areas. Latest runs of the HRRR as well as UA WRFs and other convective allowing models suggest it should be a quiet night across the lower elevations.
/issued 259 PM CDT Thu Aug 24 2017/ Pleasant weather for late August across the Midsouth with high pressure to our north keeping conditions dry and clear in the short term with temperatures in the low to mid 80's. A nearly identical day is expected tomorrow with high temperatures ranging from the low 80's in northern areas to the upper 80's in north MS.
Temperatures were in the upper 70s and lower 80s this afternoon, with dewpoint temperatures in the low to mid 50s. Lows tonight will drop into the mid/upper 50s, although low lying areas will likely dip into the lower 50s in a few spots. Highs on Friday will remain cooler than normal, generally in the 76-82 degree range.
Cold frontal boundary that pushed through the area yesterday is still lingering near the far southern tier of counties. while Canadian high pressure behind it continues to build in from the north. This setup should make for a cool and pleasant evening with low temps expected to be in the lower 60s north to lower 70s central /upper 50s higher terrain/.
716 PM EDT Thu Aug 24 2017 A cold front will stall just off the coast tonight.
Water vapor imagery indicates an upper level ridge retreating to the west of the region and Hurricane Harvey approaching the southern Texas coastline. Expansion of upper ridging from the northwest should keep the main effects of Harvey to the southeast of the region this weekend.
608 PM CDT Thu Aug 24 2017 A very large area of high pressure will be situated east of the area tonight, sprawling from the Great Lakes Region southward to the Ohio Valley. 850mb temperatures are actually quite warm Friday afternoon, therefore trended toward the warmer bias corrected readings for highs.
Have low temperatures in the middle 30s over parts of the Arrowhead, so there could be a little frost early Friday in the higher terrain inland from Lake Superior. Another cool night on tap with high pressure, clear skies, and light winds forecast. Warmer temperatures will be found in central Minnesota where lows will be in the low 50s. Clouds start to build in from the south Friday morning due to isentropic ascent along a warm front over western through southeast Minnesota. Temperatures will trend cooler for areas under clouds and rain, with slightly warmer conditions where mainly sunny to partly cloudy skies persist through afternoon. Highs in central Minnesota will be in the middle 60s to the low 70s in north- central Minnesota and around 70 degrees in north-central Wisconsin.
Deep layer shear begins to encroach on 40 knots across north central South Dakota late in the day, but that's where the lowest amount of MLCAPE is forecast to reside.
937 PM EDT Thu Aug 24 2017 A cold front will move through tonight. High pressure will continue to build from the northwest through the weekend while the front lingers offshore.
Cooler airmass in place, combined with cloud cover, will result in temps only topping out in the upper 80s to near 90.
1033 PM EDT Thu Aug 24 2017 A cold front will stall just off the coast tonight.
Slight cooling tonight should be offset by more sun Friday, so highs should be the same or a couple degrees warmer. For the weekend, a strong upper level ridge will be centered over the Great Basin, but span over much of the western U.
High pressure will remain over Lake MI tonight and Fri. Medium to High Rather cool and dry high pressure building across WI. The high dominates on Friday though shifts a bit to our east. Some increase in mid clouds noted into the western cwa in closer proximity to the return flow around high while Bufkit shows cu potential with lingering influence of the low level thermal trough.
High pressure to our east with southeasterly winds over the fcst area 5 to 15 kts. But 12z data shows bulk of lift and main warm front farther south with higher chances for precipiation late tonight into Friday east central SD into the Twin Cities region.
936 PM EDT Thu Aug 24 2017 High pressure and a seasonably cool airmass will be in place across the region through Friday, before it works off to the east over the weekend. With the airmass modification and the lingering cloud cover, went with lows in the lower to mid 50s tonight. Lows Friday night will be a few degrees warmer, in the upper 50s to lower 60s. The center of high pressure over the Great Lakes will move off to the east over the weekend, but it will continue to extend/influence our weather with dry conditions.
859 PM CDT Thu Aug 24 2017 High pressure ridge continues to sit over the CWA this evening and should remain there through the overnight hours. 1024 mb high pressure over western Ontario and ridging southward over western IL and mid MS river valley, will drift over the Great Lakes region during tonight and Friday and continue dry and less humid conditions (dewpoints in the 50s) over central/se IL rest of this week. An upper level trof will remain over the Great Lakes and ohio river valley into Friday with upper level ridging into the high plains putting IL in a nw upper level flow. Lows overnight in the low to mid 50s, coolest from I-74 ne where less mid level cloud cover expected. Nearby high pressure will keep winds fairly light generally less than 10 mph.