Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
/ISSUED 338 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2015/ A CLOSED LOW MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN US TONIGHT AND TOMORROW WILL LEAD TO SHORT WAVE RIDGING ALOFT OVER WEST TEXAS. WINDS ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO BACK AHEAD OF THIS CLOSED LOW AND BEGIN TO DRAW UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. MODELS CONTINUE TO CARRY A TROF ACROSS SOUTH/CENTRAL TEXAS FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND WHICH MAY ALLOW SOME BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE TO RETURN TO THE SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS. MODELS KEEP A WEAK LOW OR TROUGH ACROSS TEXAS WHICH LOOKS TO HAVE LITTLE SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE FORECAST.
WITH THE LOSS OF ICE CRYSTALS FALLING INTO THE LOWER CLOUD LAYER AND A HIGH SNOW GROWTH ZONE. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT SETTING UP A PUSH OF COLDER AIR THROUGH SUNDAY.
1241 AM EST SAT MAR 7 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT AND WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND WILL PULL A TRAILING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION ON SUNDAY. A SHALLOW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY NIGHT.
THE MAIN COLD FRONT IS STILL ACROSS NW MN AS OF 3 AM. THERMAL FIELDS IN THE LOWEST 1KM INDICATED THAT A MIXTURE OF SLEET/FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE FROM MANKATO. REDUCED HEIGHTS IN THE BASE OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED NEAR BAFFIN ISLAND WILL SAG INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL CONUS ON SUNDAY.
235 AM CST SAT MAR 7 2015 SHRTWV TROF CURRENTLY /CURRENTLY OVER ERN SD PER ERLY MRNG WV IMAGERY/ WILL CONT TO TRACK SEWD THROUGH THE MRNG.
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE WEST WILL KEEP ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE DISTRICT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES A BROAD TROUGH STRETCHING FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY INTO THE NORTHEAST. A CLOSED LOW CAN BE SEEN ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THIS CLOSED LOW WILL EJECT TO THE EAST EARLY IN THE WEEK AND WILL BE THE MAIN CULPRIT FOR THE HIGH RAIN CHANCES THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES WON'T BE AS COLD BUT WILL DROP OFF INTO THE 20S ACROSS THE COOLER VALLEYS WITH LOW TO MID 30S ELSEWHERE. ON SUNDAY THE CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL EJECT EASTWARD AND DIG ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO. THE 850MB RIDGE WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH PLENTY OF WARM AIR AND MOISTURE ADVECTION IN THE LOW LEVELS.
UNTIL THE RIDGES ARE ESTABLISHED, THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA, WITH THE EASTERN HALF MORE LIKELY TO RECEIVE PRECIPITATION THAN THE GULF COAST. NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A CAP BETWEEN 600 AND 700 MB, WITH STABLE TO CONDITIONALLY STABLE LAPSE RATES IN THE LOW AND MIDDLE LEVELS. AS IT DOES, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING FROM THE NORTH. WHICH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH REMAINS OVER SOUTH GEORGIA, IT WILL HAVE THE EFFECT OF REDUCING SHOWERS COVERAGE FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, AS IT GETS HELP FROM AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AS WELL. THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, THE HIGH WILL SLIDE TO THE EAST, TURNING THE WINDS MORE TO THE EAST, WHICH WILL BRING AN INCREASE OF MOISTURE AS WELL AS A WARMER AIR MASS.
THEN AGAIN DURING THE MID MORNING HOURS OF SATURDAY HEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
250 AM EST SAT MAR 7 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT AND WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND WILL PULL A TRAILING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION ON SUNDAY. A SHALLOW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY NIGHT.
AS THIS TROUGH BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS MON AND TUE. THE ECMWF/GFS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A DEVELOPING TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. HOWEVER THE HIGHER PROBABILITIES FOR PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THE NORTHERN STREAM/BROAD TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE NORTH. AND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER BAJA AND SOUTHERN STREAM WILL INCREASE HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER BAJA WILL BEGIN MOVING EASTWARD AND BECOME MORE OF AN OPEN TROUGH.
1248 AM EST SAT MAR 7 2015 COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
WHAT I WILL ADD TONIGHT IS INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE STATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON FROM THE UPPER LOW NEAR BAJA. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION WILL COOL TO FREEZING IN SOME AREAS BY MIDNIGHT AND THEN REACHING A LOW IN THE MID 20S TO AROUND 32 DEGREES AROUND DAYBREAK. ONE MUST REMEMBER THAT THE AIR NEAR THE EARTHS SURFACE (SEVERAL INCHES) WILL BE MUCH COOLER AND MAY BE FIVE OR MORE DEGREES COOLER THAN NEARBY AIRPORT OBSERVATIONS AT SIX FEET. THUS RESIDUAL WATER ON ROADWAYS SHOULD TURN TO BLACK ICE BEFORE NEARBY AIRPORTS REPORT A FREEZING TEMPERATURE. /ISSUED 300 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2015/ AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES/MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY. S UPPER HIGH OVER NORTHWEST MEXICO WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH LATE SATURDAY WITH INCREASING MID-HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE PACIFIC.
THE NAM12/RAP13 KEEP THE HIGHEST RELATIVE HUMIDITIES CONFINED MAINLY TO FAR WEST AND SOUTHWEST THROUGH 15Z SATURDAY. REFLECTION AT THE SURFACE WITH LOW PRESSURE FORECAST TO SLIDE ACROSS CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN INTO MANITOBA BY LATE AFTERNOON. A LITTLE COOLER BUT STILL MILD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
1144 PM EST FRI MAR 6 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATER SATURDAY THEN CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT.
NEAR THE SURFACE, A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS SHIFTING EAST ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. MODELS DO HINT AT SOME SLIGHT COOLER AIR RETURNING TO PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY EARLY SATURDAY. DESPITE THE BRIEF COOL DOWN ADVERTISED BY THE MODELS EARLY SATURDAY THE HIGHS SATURDAY AFTERNOON STILL APPEAR TO BE MAINLY IN THE LOWER 60S BASED ON 850MB TEMPERATURES AT 00Z SUNDAY RANGING FROM +6C TO NEAR +9C. THIS GUIDANCE IS STILL SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN THE MEX.
351 AM EST SAT MAR 7 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING SLIDES OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DROPS INTO THE AREA LATE SUNDAY.
SURFACE TROF EXPECTED TO CAUSE SURFACE WINDS AT NORTHERN TERMINALS TO BECOME NORTHWEST TO NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. SURFACE TROF EXPECTED TO LOSE ITS PUNCH. THE WINDS WILL THEN PICK UP SOME AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE PANHANDLES ON SUNDAY. THIS COLD FRONT SHOULD ONLY KNOCK TEMPERATURES BACK BY ABOUT 5 DEGREES OR SO.
1259 AM EST SAT MAR 7 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST OVER THE STATE TONIGHT. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS NORTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. WHILE NOT REPRESENTATIVE OF THE LOWER SUSQ AS A WHOLE. KTHV REMAINS AT -8F AT THIS HOUR AND SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO ARE COMMON THROUGHOUT THE LOWER SUSQ WITH FRESH SNOWPACK FROM THU/S STORM ON THE GROUND. BUT THE NORMALLY COLDER VALLEYS ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY WILL DIP BLW ZERO. HIGHS WILL TOP FREEZING OVER MUCH OF THE REGION.
TEMPS TODAY WILL BE A BIT COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. ALTHOUGH WITH A WARMER START FOR MOST AREAS IF THERE IS SUNSHINE NEAR SNOW FREE AREAS SHOULD STILL GET BACK INTO THE MID 30S AT LEAST.
428 AM EST SAT MAR 7 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING SLIDES OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DROPS INTO THE AREA LATE SUNDAY.
/ISSUED 934 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2015/ HIGH PRESSURE CENTER SLOWLY MOVES TO THE EAST BRINGING LIGHT SOUTH WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES. /ISSUED 549 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2015/ HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER OVER THE MIDSOUTH THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL TAKE PLACE OVER THE PERIOD AS THE HIGH BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE TEXAS COAST. AN INVERTED SFC TROF WILL EXTEND NORTHWARD INTO THE MIDSOUTH.
329 AM CST SAT MAR 7 2015 EARLY THIS MORNING A COLD FRONT WAS JUST ENTERING THE FORECAST AREA FROM NEAR INTERNATIONAL FALLS TO WALKER. THERE WILL BE ABOUT A 12 HOUR PERIOD OF RIDGING ACROSS THE REGION BEFORE ANOTHER STRONG SHORT WAVE AND CANADIAN LOW PRESSURE ENTERS NWRN MN TNT AND MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. IN THAT THEY BRING A SERIES OF S/WVS THROUGH THE UPPER TROF IN A FAIRLY CONSISTENT PATTERN. IT WILL BE A BIT WARMER SUNDAY. THEN AN UPPER RIDGE REDEVELOPS LATE IN THE PERIOD OVER THE WESTERN CONUS/WESTERN CANADA.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AFFECTING THE CENTRAL PART OF THE NATION HAS SHIFTED EAST. PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE AND LIGHT SOUTHERN WINDS WILL KEEP CONDITIONS MUCH WARMER THAN RECENT DAYS. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE.
440 AM EST SAT MAR 7 2015 AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT WILL SHUNT HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN U. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION FOR SUNDAY. THUS IT CONTINUES TO DEVELOP PCPN TODAY AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT.
THE WESTERLY FLOW WILL HAVE ADVECTED IN WARMER AIR. COASTAL AREAS WILL REMAIN SHARPLY COOLER AS THE WEAK PATTERN ALLOWS THE COOLING SEA BREEZE TO DEVELOP.
WAVE PASSES TO THE EAST BY 18Z WITH COLD ADVECTION BEHIND 925-850 MB TROUGHS AND SURFACE COLD FRONT THAT DROP THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THOUGH BRUNT OF THE COOLER AIR STAYS WELL TO THE NORTHEAST. MODELS INDICATING NARROW BAND OF LOWER CLOUDS CURRENTLY ON SATELLITE IMAGERY ALONG/JUST BEHIND COLD FRONT. BUT SHOULD SEE ENOUGH SUN THAT WITH EXPECTED PRE-FRONTAL 925 MB TEMPS SHOULD SEE MIDDAY HIGHS CLOSER TO THOSE REFLECTED IN THE WARMER ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS.
A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE DROPPING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AND MORE CLOUD COVER WILL BE AROUND TODAY THEN THERE WAS YESTERDAY SO I HAVE A HARD TIME SEEING TEMPS AS WARM AS WE SAW YESTERDAY. I GENERALLY WENT WITH MY OWN BLEND OF MODELS TODAY STAYING WITH A NAM/GFS BLEND ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND LEANING TOWARDS THE COOLER SIDE OF THAT BLEND THERE. FURTHER SOUTHWEST I PREFER A EURO/GFS BLEND AND LEANED TOWARDS SLIGHTLY WARMER SIDE FOR LOCATIONS DOWN THERE. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE STATE TODAY AND TO THE EAST TONIGHT. MOST OF THE FORCING GOES ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE AND KEPT THE HIGHER POPS THERE. THOUGH THERE IS SOME PENETRATION OF COOLER AIR.
TEMPERATURES HAVE BEGUN FALLING AT A MORE RAPID CLIP WITH READINGS AT OR BELOW FREEZING BEING NOTED AT SOME LOCATIONS ALONG AND TO THE NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 10/12 CORRIDOR. A FAIRLY NICE WEEKEND IS IN STORE AS TEMPERATURES MODERATE INTO THE LOWER AND MID 60S FOR MOST AREAS TODAY.
353 AM CST Sat Mar 7 2015 Satellite imagery this morning shows an amplified pattern across the Nation, with a West Coast ridge and eastern CONUS trough dominating. This has left our section of the country under a northwest flow, though it will be a warm northwest flow for us as the activity in the northern stream helps keep some semblance of a thermal ridge in place across the Central Plains over the next 7 days. However, the trough will do more by shifting the thermal ridge than by actually bringing cool air with it.
342 AM EST SAT MAR 7 2015 HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS FARTHER OFFSHORE TODAY WHILE A CLIPPER SYSTEM TRACKS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. ITS ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT PASSES THROUGH LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT.
350 AM EST SAT MAR 7 2015 A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AHEAD OF DEVELOPING WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS MORNING, WITH SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS.
352 AM CST SAT MAR 7 2015 UPPER LEVEL SPLIT FLOW CONTINUED OVER THE CONUS EARLY THIS MORNING WITH THE POLAR JET CONFINED TO THE NORTH/NORTHEASTERN PART OF THE CONUS AND A NEARLY STATIONARY UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN BAJA. SOUTHERLY WINDS TODAY WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT MOISTURE BACK INTO THE CWA ALONG WITH HIGH CLOUDS SPREADING INTO THE REGION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER LOW BEGINNING TO LIFT OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST. MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WHICH WILL HELP TO KEEP TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
WITH THE LOSS OF ICE CRYSTALS INTO THE LOWER CLOUD LAYER AND A HIGH SNOW GROWTH ZONE. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT SETTING UP A PUSH OF COLDER AIR THROUGH SUNDAY.
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT CURRENT SURFACE MAP PLACES WEAK COLD FRONT DROPPING THROUGH EASTERN MONTANA INTO FAR NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA. WEAK COLD FRONT STALLS OUT ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA. EXCEPT A FEW DEGREES COOLER ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST.
425 AM EST SAT MAR 7 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST OVER THE STATE TONIGHT. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS NORTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. WHILE NOT REPRESENTATIVE OF THE LOWER SUSQ AS A WHOLE. KTHV REMAINS AT -8F AT THIS HOUR AND SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO ARE COMMON THROUGHOUT THE LOWER SUSQ WITH FRESH SNOWPACK FROM THU/S STORM ON THE GROUND. BUT THE NORMALLY COLDER VALLEYS ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY WILL DIP BLW ZERO. HIGHS WILL TOP FREEZING OVER MUCH OF THE REGION.
THE LOW WILL BEGIN TO OPEN UP AND MOVE EAST TOWARD TEXAS TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. THE BETTER LIFT AND MOISTURE WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO FAR WEST TEXAS AND NEW MEXICO.
HIGHS SHOULD WARM INTO THE LOW/MID 50S. STAYED CLOSE TO BUT ON THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE. ONE MORE NIGHT THIS FORECAST STRETCH WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING WILL START A NEW WEEK. LOW TEMPERATURES AFTERWARD SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING. AT LEAST WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES. MODEL UPGLIDE IN THE 295K RANGE LOOKS PRETTY DECENT MON/TUE THUS THE HIGHER RAIN CHANCES. GIVEN THE PATH OF THE SURFACE CYCLONE AND A GENERALLY SE FLOW WITH DEEPER MOISTURE.
349 AM EST SAT MAR 7 2015 HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES.
1129 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2015 TEMPERATURES SKYROCKETED TODAY OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN IOWA WHERE READINGS WERE IN THE LOWER 50S TO LOWER 60S. THESE READINGS WERE A RESULT OF MUCH WARMER THAN EXPECTED 925-950 MB TEMPERATURES AND DRIER DEWPOINTS THAT EASILY MIXED TO THE SFC. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THOUGH WITH THE LOW LEVELS BELOW 800 MB REMAINING QUITE DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL COOLER ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS NEAR SEASONAL VALUES ON SATURDAY. EXPECT SNOW NORTH WITH AROUND AN INCH POSSIBLE AND A MIX OF RAIN/FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE.
1149 PM EST FRI MAR 6 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES BY EARLY TONIGHT. A THIN MOISTURE PROFILE AND THE PROGRESSIVE SPEED OF THE SYSTEM WILL LIMIT SNOW TO ONE TO THREE INCHES WITH THAT HIGHER TOTAL FALLING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN BOOSTED BY UPSLOPE FLOW.
355 AM CST SAT MAR 7 2015 MORE SUNSHINE EXPECTED TODAY WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST. ALLOWING FOR WARMER OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES AND MAYBE A FEW SHOWERS OVER EAST TEXAS. THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SPREAD RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE FOUR STATE REGION ON SUNDAY.
1241 AM EST SAT MAR 7 2015 A STALLED COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM AROUND NAPLES OVER TO SOMEWHERE AROUND BOCA RATON. IN ADDITION RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED THAT SOME PATCHES OF FOG IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT MAY AFFECT THE OFF SHORE GULF WATERS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. A STRONG 591 DM H5 RIDGE CENTERED ROUGHLY ACROSS THE BAHAMAS IS HELPING TO MITIGATE ANY ENHANCED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. THIS RIDGE HAS ALSO KEPT THE COLD FRONT DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA FROM PUSHING ANY FURTHER SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON.
A LITTLE COLDER IN SOME TYPICALLY COLDER LOW-LYING AREAS AND A LITTLE WARMER ON HILL TOPS AND URBAN AREAS. OVERNIGHT MINIMUMS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS TO THE LOW TEENS. WHILE NRN STREAM SYSTEMS STAY NORTH WITHIN THE RETREATING TROF.
Today, is a prime example as gusty southwesterly winds tapped into the much drier and warmer air above the 925mb level. An attendant cold front will swing into northern MO Saturday morning but the cold air will lag the frontal passage. Inspection of the this mornings 12z soundings indicated we mixed air from above the 925mb level, resulting in upward adjustments being made to the high temperatures. In addition, upstream temperatures from central NE through central KS reached the lower/middle 60s. While there are some model differences in the evolution of the above noted cold front the general idea is the boundary will stall close to the southern border of the CWA Saturday evening then drift northward before shifting southward again Sunday afternoon/evening.
144 AM MST SAT MAR 7 2015 RAP ANALYSIS AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A LARGE RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE WESTERN PART OF THE CONUS. GUSTS WILL TAPER OFF THIS EVENING AS THE TEMPERATURE COOLS AND THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE DECOUPLES WITH THE 20 KT WINDS ALOFT. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM AGAIN INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA TOMORROW.
/ISSUED 935 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2015/ HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE FOUR STATE REGION PROVIDING LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.
SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS EVENING SHOWED A WEAK UPPER LOW OVER NRN BAJA WITH HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS STREAMING NE ACROSS COCHISE COUNTY. MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE ABOVE MENTIONED WEAK UPPER LOW AS IT MOVES INTO AND THRU SRN AZ. ON THE EVENING UPDATE ADDED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WHEN A FEW SHOWERS MAY PREVAIL ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF TUCSON.
Upper level low sitting over Southern California early this morning is only going to shift slowly east as it weakens over the next several days.
THE LOW AMPLITUDE UA RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL PROMOTE A AN UPTICK IN MID-UPPER LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES AS WELL AS A SLIGHT INCREASE IN 850 MB TEMPS. 80 INCH RANGE /HIGHEST PWATS NOTED ACROSS THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS/. THE INCREASED CLOUDINESS AND SFC WINDS VEERING BACK TO THE S-SW WILL ALLOW FOR A WARMER NIGHT /MAINLY IN THE 30S/.
MEANWHILE, A CLOSED OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA WILL BEGIN TO PUSH SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. COMBINED WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE TODAY, LOOK FOR HIGHS GENERALLY UP INTO THE LOWER AND MID 60S(F) WITH A FEW UPPER 50S(F) STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE THE AIR MASS WILL BE A BIT COOLER.
BY MID MORNING SHOULD SEE SHARP INCREASE IN SFC DEW POINTS HOWEVER AS SOME OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WHICH HAS ADVECTED INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT MIXES TO THE SFC. NOT PARTICULARLY DEEP MIXING TODAY WITH LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE ADVECTING INTO AREA. HIGHS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO MAKE IT ABOVE FREEZING.
Have updated the forecast to reflect some of the lower temperatures, however do expect we may see a bit of a rise as we near dawn. We have some very welcome quiet weather in the short term forecast thanks to general high pressure and a lack of deep moisture in the region. Temperatures tonight are hard to figure since the high will be moving off to the southeast over the course of the night. Lows Saturday night will be warmer as well, likely in the middle and upper 20s.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHUNT SOUTHWARD TO THE GULF STATES TONIGHT. THE STRONG UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND EASTERN U. MODELS INDICATE THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN U. SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS EVENING SHOWS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING ACROSS TENNESSEE AND KENTUCKY. WENT WARMER THAN MOS GUIDANCE FOR THE WEEKEND GIVEN PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS FOR A LARGE MAJORITY OF THE SHORT TERM AND MODELS SEEM TO CONTINUE TO UNDERWHELM WITH THE WARM AIR UNDER A WAA REGIME. AN UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPING IN THE CENTRAL USA WILL ALLOW SOME SYSTEMS TO IMPACT THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH DURING THE PERIOD.
252 AM CST Sat Mar 7 2015 Southerly breezes commenced overnight as high pressure shifted southeast of the Ozarks. Clouds will spread over the region tonight helping to keep temperatures a little warmer than this mornings lows. This cloud cover may actually cause Sunday's highs to be slightly cooler, ranging from the middle 50s to the lower 60s. Mean upper level ridging will build across the nation's mid section, forcing the main belt of westerlies well to the north of the Ozarks.
1230 AM EST SAT MAR 7 2015 HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES THROUGH SATURDAY AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM TRACKS FROM SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
THEN DIVING DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE RIDGE LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. WARMING IN THE HIGHER VALLEYS TODAY MAY MELT ENOUGH SNOW THAT FOG WILL START TO MAKE AN APPEARANCE IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THIS NORTHERN BRANCH DISTURBANCE WILL MEET UP WITH THE REMNANTS OF A SOUTHERN BRANCH LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN NM INTO WEST TX. THE COOLER AIR WILL STAY MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. THE WEST COAST RIDGE THEN DOMINATES.
1126 PM EST FRI MAR 6 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST OVER THE STATE TONIGHT. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS NORTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. IDEAL RAD COOLING SCENARIO ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY WITH CLEAR SKY/CALM WIND WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER NIGHT OF RECORD COLD. NORMALLY COLDER VALLEYS ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY WILL DIP BLW ZERO. HIGHS WILL TOP FREEZING OVER MUCH OF THE REGION.
THIS SHOULD RESULT IN SLIGHTLY WARMER LOW TEMPS TONIGHT COMPARED TO YESTERDAY IN THE VALLEYS AS THE INCREASED MOISTURE IS A VERY SHALLOW LAYER, WITH THE MOISTURE DEPOSITING AS FROST IN MOST OF THE WEST SIDE INLAND AND THE EAST SIDE.
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS LAST EVENING SHOWED A WEAK RIDGE OVER TEXAS WITH A CUTOFF LOW CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN END OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER LOUISIANA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE TODAY AND TEMPERATURES WILL WARM WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL OPEN INTO A WAVE AND BEGIN MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT. AS THE TROUGH ADVANCES TO THE EAST A SERIES OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WILL MOVE THROUGH BRINGING CHANCES FOR RAIN TO OUR CWA.
356 AM CST SAT MAR 7 2015 ANALYSIS OF THE 08Z MSL DATA SHOWED LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ALONG THE MINNESOTA-ONTARIO LINE WITH A COLD FRONT STRETCHING ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND EASTERN MONTANA WITH A WARM FRONT THROUGH EASTERN MINNESOTA AND EASTERN IOWA. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND COMES SOUTHEAST ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT. THE SOUTH FLOW AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CREATE ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THE 285-300K LAYER WITH SOME INSTABILITY INDICATED IN THE CROSS-SECTION OF THETA-E. BUT THE LOWEST 3000 FEET IS NEAR OR ABOVE 0C. A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW IS LIKELY BUT FREEZING PRECIPITATION IS NOT LIKELY. STRONG RIDGING WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS PERIOD WITH A BROAD TROUGH IN PLACE OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEASTERN CONUS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS NEBRASKA ON SUNDAY.
USED A BLEND OF MOS GUIDE AND MAV MOS 18Z-00Z AS IT HAS BEEN VERIFYING BEST AND WAS AMONG THE LOWEST AVAILABLE. TEMPS SUNDAY WILL BE COOLER THAN SATURDAY POST FRONTAL. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE UPSWING AGAIN IN RISING HEIGHTS AS THE WEST COAST RIDGING MIGRATES EAST ONTO THE PLAINS. DID NOT DEVIATE FROM EXTENDED INIT FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND DUE TO MODEL DIFFERENCES IN HANDLING A POTENTIAL TROUGH MOVING IN FROM THE WEST COAST.
LEANING TOWARD THE WARMER SIDE OF THE EXTREMES GIVEN ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE. A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY DRAPED FROM NORTH-CENTRAL MN TO SOUTHEAST ND WILL SWING ACROSS THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY. DESPITE A SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MASS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. THE FORECAST AREA GETS SQUEEZED BETWEEN TWO LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE FIRST MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WITH WARM FRONTAL SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MN ARROWHEAD INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN.
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF A FEW FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING AS A FEW WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE THROUGH. THE LOW CHC OF PCPN WILL REMAIN TONIGHT AND INTO SUN. WE SHOULD DRY OUT AND SEE A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE ON MON AS WE WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF RIDGING INBETWEEN A SYSTEM TO OUR NW AND ANOTHER TO OUR SW.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE SLIDING EAST TODAY, OPENING UP THE REGION FOR DEEP MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE NEXT SURFACE SYSTEM.
257 AM EST SAT MAR 7 2015 HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES.