Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
A deep upper level trough is currently situated over the western CONUS and will continue making its way towards our region over the next several days. As the precipitation chances increase tomorrow, slightly cooler temps with highs in the upper 70s/lower 80s can be expected.
819 PM EDT Wed Sep 29 2021 High pressure anchored over eastern Canada will keep generally fair cool weather over our region through the end of the week. High pressure over eastern Canada will keep a light northerly flow in place across our region through the period. Other than across Southern Tier, temps this evening are generally warmer than this time last night, especially east of Lake Ontario, due to the cloud cover.
A weak frontal boundary is located across northeastern portions of the area, which is marked by drier and cooler air to the northeast. BW Chattanooga Airport, TN 62 85 64 85 64 / 0 0 0 10 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 59 85 61 84 61 / 0 0 0 10 0 Oak Ridge, TN 60 85 61 84 61 / 0 0 0 10 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 55 82 54 82 55 / 0 0 0 0 0.
938 PM CDT Wed Sep 29 2021 High pressure continues to hold tight over eastern Tennessee this evening. Our pattern over the next few days will be dictated by a high pressure system at the surface anchored over the Appalachians and Mid Atlantic region while an upper level ridge axis remains situated over the Alabama/Georgia state line.
Tomorrow, the upper level low shifts to AZ/NM and circulation around said low will bring another round of convection.
1050 PM EDT Wed Sep 29 2021 High pressure brings dry, pleasant Fall weather through the end of the week. Increasing chance for showers and afternoon storms return by the end of the weekend ahead of a cold front. Tweaked the overnight low temperatures and corresponding hourly temperatures to represent the current trends and cooler spots across the region under calm, clear conditions tonight, with valley/mountain fog developing as the night progresses. High temperatures on Thursday will struggle to reach the 80 degree mark across the lowlands, ranging into the mid 50s at higher elevations.
819 PM EDT Wed Sep 29 2021 High pressure brings dry, pleasant Fall weather through the end of the week. Increasing chance for showers and afternoon storms return by the end of the weekend ahead of a cold front. High temperatures on Thursday will struggle to reach the 80 degree mark across the lowlands, ranging into the mid 50s at higher elevations.
621 PM CDT Wed Sep 29 2021 The stretch of dry and unseasonably warm conditions will extend through Thursday, but then the pattern changes for the weekend as a frontal system lifts into the region, threatening us with widespread rainfall and cooler temperatures. Skies will remain mostly clear tonight as temperatures fall into the lower 60s.
/Issued 228 PM EDT Wed Sep 29 2021/ High pressure ridge that has been over the area for a week will continue to dominate the weather pattern through the short term. This ridge is beginning to weaken and starting to let a bit more moisture in across the area. The ridge is keeping things very stable so still not expecting any precipitation through Thu night.
Mainly clear skies and cool temperatures are forecast overnight with portions of Nye, Esmeralda and higher elevations of northern Lincoln Counties experiencing their first sub-freezing night of the year. Portions of Esmeralda and Nye counties are expected to see their first sub-freezing temperatures of the season overnight tonight. Breezier conditions are expected during the afternoon period today and tomorrow with the highest wind gusts expected tomorrow afternoon in the southern portion of the Colorado River Valley near Laughlin/Bullhead City.
Afternoon temperatures will remain cooler than average during much of the forecast. A longwave trough is currently centered over the western U. After Thursday the upper level low slowly moves off to the east with drier weather expected.
26 inches, with the lower 300mb even drier than yesterday. The overall synoptic pattern remains very similar to the past few days, as a blocking pattern across CONUS is keeping high pressure anchored over the southeast. With the ridge to the north, winds over the area have maintained a northeast to east bearing, which continues to feed an ample supply of dry air into the Keys area.
451 PM MDT Wed Sep 29 2021 A trough of low pressure lingering over the Rockies is the primary driver of weather conditions in the short term. Therefore, have held off on any Freeze Warnings at this time, but anyone with sensitive garden plants outside may still want to cover them tonight, given widespread lows in the low to mid 30s.
834 PM EDT Wed Sep 29 2021 High pressure will maintain dry and seasonable conditions for the remainder of the week.
Quiet conditions persist overnight as weak high pressure remains positioned over NE FL/SE GA. (previous) High pressure to the north of the local area will keep a light onshore wind flow.
812 PM CDT Wed Sep 29 2021 The stretch of dry and unseasonably warm conditions will extend through Thursday, but then the pattern changes for the weekend as a frontal system lifts into the region, threatening us with widespread rainfall and cooler temperatures. Temperatures are expected to fall into the lower to mid 60s. Skies will remain mostly clear tonight as temperatures fall into the lower 60s.
608 PM MDT Wed Sep 29 2021 Scattered showers with northerly to northwest winds ongoing this afternoon with mostly cloudy skies after the cold front passed through the CWA earlier today. Temperatures sit 20-30F degrees cooler than this time yesterday afternoon as more fall- like weather arrives. Skies will begin to clear for Thursday with cooler weather sticking around.
A cold front will enter the region late Thursday morning increasing chances for TSRA. As the the surface front moves south toward the I20 corridor tomorrow morning and early afternoon, an open wave associated with the deepening upper level trough axis to the west ejects northeast over the cold front. A limited window of thermal instability (approx 1000 J/K) in the early/mid afternoon may increase general thunderstorm coverage across the southern South Plains and eastern New Mexico, with the most coverage and most intense rainfall expected along the cold front to our south.
725 PM EDT Wed Sep 29 2021 High pressure will continue over the region Tonight.
313 PM MDT Wed Sep 29 2021 A trough of low pressure lingering over the Rockies is the primary driver of weather conditions in the short term. Therefore, have held off on any Freeze Warnings at this time, but anyone with sensitive garden plants outside may still want to cover them tonight, given widespread lows in the low to mid 30s.
Instability will be the highest west of Highway 75 and although deep layer shear will be weak, gusty winds will be possible with brief heavy rainfall likely in the stronger storms.
An upper-level trough over the western US will continue digging southward into the Desert Southwest, then nose into west Texas through tonight. At the surface, a cold front currently over the Panhandle will push southeastward and reach the Big Country this afternoon. Overnight, any convection should continue to expand geographically as better upper support from the trough moves in and the cold front continues to move southward.
319 AM EDT Thu Sep 30 2021 High pressure will provide for dry and pleasant conditions today and Friday.
Temperatures ranged from the mid 70s in Norfolk to the the lower 80s in the Loess Hills. Through Thursday: Periodic rain and thunderstorm activity should continue across the region as an upper level trough and surface front continue to interact with deep fetch of subtropical moisture (PW values near 1. Friday and the Weekend: An upper level trough over the Southwest U.
201 AM MDT Thu Sep 30 2021 Energy from trof to our south is focused over the central and southern Rockies, leaving us in a dry air mass underneath flat ridging and weak flow aloft.
1200 AM EDT Thu Sep 30 2021 High pressure will maintain VFR conditions for the most part with just a brief period of shallow fog possible early Thursday morning. Light/variable winds will become light southeast as the center of this high drifts slightly east of lower MI. * None Synoptic-scale ridging fully entrenched across the state supports ample column stability and mild conditions through the next 60 hours. Abundant sunshine with weak ENE flow (outside lake breeze zones) flourishes until an Omega Block pattern breaks down with the progression of a Pacific Northwest longwave trough. Confluence aloft over Lake Huron suggests shearing vicinity jet streak drifts east into southern Ontario with the departing Northeast upper low. Minor height rises expected over the region Friday as the ridge axis attempts to center over Lake Michigan.
326 AM CDT Thu Sep 30 2021 At 08Z (3 AM), overnight convection is ongoing in central and north- central Kansas along a cold front that runs north to south through the central part of the state.
253 AM MDT Thu Sep 30 2021 Look for warmer temperatures and dry weather conditions across NE Montana over the next couple of days. Upper ridging is expected to strengthen across the wester U. Longer term ensembles eventually show the ridge breaking down or shifting east sometime near the end of the first week in October as a deep Pacific trough sets up. As this results, look for markedly cooler and more fall-like temperatures.
Additional showers and storms have developed across eastern Kansas in response to broad isentropic lift ahead of an approaching cold front.
This will keep the sharp ridge over the Midwest and Ohio Valley over the next several days. As high pressure builds in the low levels, the frontogenetical forcings will weaken, lessening the temperature gradient from day's past. Lift will be expected across the area as an upper trough and associated cold front over the Mississippi Valley will be advancing toward the Ohio Valley.
247 AM EDT Thu Sep 30 2021 SHORT TERM (Today through Thursday): Surface ridging emanating from the coastal Carolinas continues to advect a drier airmass over the region. Seasonably cooler temperatures in the mid/uppers 80s and slightly lower dewpoints in the upper 60s/lower 70s will allow for much welcomed "cooler" conditions (by South Florida standards).
Scattered showers with northerly to northwest winds ongoing this afternoon with mostly cloudy skies after the cold front passed through the CWA earlier today. Temperatures sit 20-30F degrees cooler than this time yesterday afternoon as more fall- like weather arrives. Skies will begin to clear for Thursday with cooler weather sticking around.
Otherwise, dry air and subsidence provided by said aforementioned high pressure will greatly limit PoPs once again today.
223 AM EDT Thu Sep 30 2021 High pressure brings dry, pleasant Fall weather through the end of the week. Increasing chance for showers and afternoon storms returns by the end of the weekend ahead of a cold front. High pressure continues building slowly southward toward the area through tonight, beneath upper level north to northwest flow.
426 AM EDT Thu Sep 30 2021 Increased ridging across the East Coast with high pressure centered just to our north. The ridge axis will move offshore towards the end of the weekend and moisture will begin to increase from the west.
433 AM EDT Thu Sep 30 2021 Dry high pressure will persist through the short term. The high amplitude upper ridge will weaken through Friday.
A cold front is moving through the forecast area in the vicinity of the line of thunderstorms. The main upper low/wave continues to move through the area during the day. Temperatures will be a bit warmer on Friday, especially in the west, with highs around 70 degrees.
Stout meridional upper level ridging begrudgingly shifts eastward over the course of the next 24 hours with an equally long transition window for the sensible weather. High cirrostratus has been infiltrating the forecast area throughout the day as they overtop the upper tropospheric ridge, but any associated showers have been tied closer to the near-surface warm front lifting along the mid-Missouri River Valley. Given the highly amplified nature of the ridge, this is a very plausible scenario and have delayed/shift westward the shower threat for Thursday. Given the westward shift in the forecast, have increased high temperatures for the day on Thursday--pushing the low to mid 80s at most locales. Following the breakdown of a upper ridge Thursday, shower and storm chances return Thursday night into early Friday morning.
There may be a few isolated thunderstorms developing by the afternoon as well, but the potential for organized convection is low due to upper level ridging.
As the trough slowly moves east, surface convergence along a frontal boundary will develop a broken line of storms in western NE/KS this evening. There could be a bit of a lull Thursday night into Friday morning, but still have at least a slight chance of storms during this period as the frontal boundary becomes washed out and stalls over the area and the upper trough cuts off over the Four Corners region.
321 AM EDT Thu Sep 30 2021 High pressure brings dry, pleasant Fall weather through the end of the week. Increasing chance for showers and afternoon storms returns by the end of the weekend ahead of a cold front. High pressure continues building slowly southward toward the area through tonight, beneath upper level north to northwest flow. Ridging aloft begins to flatten this weekend as a trough slides eastward.
KDDC WSR-88D is showing showers and thunderstorms developing behind of and head of a cold front. A much cooler day is expected in the wake of the front and precipitation. Will keep the highest pops located near the Oklahoma border in closer proximity to the mid level low and the divergent flow and lift associated with it. The winds are not expected to be that strong either as this low moves out.
220 AM MDT Thu Sep 30 2021 RAP analysis shows a pronounced trough over the western CONUS promoting southwesterly flow into the region as the cold front from earlier in the evening continues to push SE across Kansas. Early morning low temperatures look to fall into the low 40s across Yuma County Colorado to the mid 50s across Graham County Kansas. Overcast skies are expected through the day which will limit diurnal heating which will make daytime highs struggle to break 70 degrees across the area with overnight lows in the low 40s to low 50s. Mainly cloudy skies are again likely for Friday as the above mentioned low pressure system moves northeast towards the region. High temperatures will be slightly warmer for Friday in the 70s due to the southwesterly flow being present.
327 AM CDT Thu Sep 30 2021 Hefty upper ridge remains anchored over central North America early this morning, with its axis now sitting just east of the forecast area. This ridge will begin to break down today as an upstream longwave trough transitions to a closed upper low over the Four Corners region. Dewpoints will again climb into the low 60s. Upper flow transitions into a split flow pattern by Friday with the closed low meandering through the Southwest region and a northern stream trough making landfall in the Northwest.
Southwest of the front, dewpoints are in the lower to mid 60s. A deep trough is in place across the western third of North America with a ridge centered just just to our east in eastern and a deep closed low is in place across New England. Light southerly flow and continued moisture advection Friday night will support above normal lows mainly in the lower to mid 60s.
123 AM MDT Thu Sep 30 2021 Water vapor imagery early this morning shows a compact upper low over extreme southwest Wyoming, and adjacent northeast Utah. This low is expected to slowly shift/reform over N.
1144 PM CDT Wed Sep 29 2021 The stretch of dry and unseasonably warm conditions will extend through Thursday, but then the pattern changes for the weekend as a frontal system lifts into the region, threatening us with widespread rainfall and cooler temperatures. Temperatures are expected to fall into the lower to mid 60s. Skies will remain mostly clear tonight as temperatures fall into the lower 60s. Overnight lows will once again cool into the lower 60s for Thursday night.
244 AM EDT Thu Sep 30 2021 A weak backdoor cold front will move through overnight, with a reinforcing high pressure area moving in behind the front for the weekend. Upper low centered over the New England and Canadian Maritimes moving slowly to the northeast. Upper ridge appears to build a bit and soundings indicate strong mid level capping. Will keep a dry forecast given only modest increase in moisture and limited lift/instability near the front/trough. An upper level low will remain entrenched over New England and the Canadian Maritimes for the second half of this week.
A deep upper level trough is currently situated over the western CONUS and will continue making its way towards our region over the next several days. As the precipitation chances increase tomorrow, slightly cooler temps with highs in the upper 70s/lower 80s can be expected. Issued at 200 CDT Wed Sep 29 2021 With the upper low to the west on Friday, additional spokes of energy will move through during the day which will continue the chance for showers and storms, especially across the western part of the area.
1130 PM EDT Wed Sep 29 2021 High pressure will maintain dry and seasonable conditions for the remainder of the week.
955 PM MDT Wed Sep 29 2021 A trough of low pressure lingering over the Rockies is the primary driver of weather conditions in the short term. Therefore, have held off on any Freeze Warnings at this time, but anyone with sensitive garden plants outside may still want to cover them tonight, given widespread lows in the low to mid 30s.
High pressure extends southward from Hudson Bay toward Lake Huron. The southern part of this ridge breaks off, with a high centered over the eastern lakes by Friday morning. Low pressure will gradually advance into nw Ontario, as the 500mb ridge upstream gets deamplified by energy transiting southern Canada. Highs mainly within near 70f to the lower 70s, a bit cooler near Lk Huron.
1120 PM MDT Wed Sep 29 2021 (30/06Z TAF period) VFR conditions prevail through at least the next 24hrs with high pressure at the surface and aloft across the Northern Rockies and MT Little or no clouds are expected with just a slight increase in high clouds Thursday night. High temperatures on Thursday beneath the transient ridge are expected to rebound into the mid-60s to mi-70s, with the warmest readings occurring over the plains of Central and North Central Montana due to the downsloping southwest-west winds.
1035 PM MDT Wed Sep 29 2021 19z surface analysis had cold front from eastern ND into central NE, just east of the CWA. Narrow axis of 250-500J/kg MUCAPE behind cold front over south central SD supporting shra/ts lifting northward. Thursday, upper trough weakens as it settles into a weak circulation over the southwest CONUS.
358 AM EDT Thu Sep 30 2021 Upper-level ridging is building in from the west as a deep, negatively-tilted trough axis propagates off to the NE.
Looking aloft, south to southwest flow aloft prevails to the east of a developing closed low over the Four Corners region. At the surface, a cold front stretches north-south down the High Plains and will be the main player over the next 24 hours. Deep layer shear is weak, and in fact our area is in a void of mid/upper flow between the subtropical jet to the south over TX and the southern stream branch to our west and north closer to the upper low.
A weak frontal boundary is located across northeastern portions of the area, which is marked by drier and cooler air to the northeast. JB Chattanooga Airport, TN 86 64 85 64 84 / 0 0 10 0 20 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 84 60 84 61 84 / 0 0 10 0 20 Oak Ridge, TN 85 59 84 61 83 / 0 0 10 0 20 Tri Cities Airport, TN 85 49 82 55 82 / 0 0 0 0 20.
Low-level ridge heights increase today along the eastern periphery of the upper ridge axis. The increasing boundary layer temperatures should lead to max temperatures being a degree or two warmer for most locations this afternoon. Discussion: In the upper levels, a ridge will be over the Southeast and Ohio River Valley.
321 AM EDT Thu Sep 30 2021 Upper-level troughing across the Four Corners region will close off this morning while an upper-level closed low system continues to slowly push south around New England. This omega blocking pattern will maintain an amplified ridge across the Midwest and Great Lakes through the day and will result in another day of dry weather. Thinly veiled cirrus and cirro-stratus that is currently parked across the Midwest will filter in through the afternoon as upper- level steering flow back more westerly, but otherwise, mostly sunny skies are expected with temperatures again pushing into the lower 70s -- cooler across the Thumb. Blocking pattern to again hold through Friday as the four corners closed low gradually progresses eastward near the Texas Panhandle, reinforcing seasonally higher heights over Southeast Michigan.
(Today and tonight) A cold front continues to move southward across Kansas and the Oklahoma/Texas panhandles this morning. As the cold front continues to move southward (likely being reinforced by the convection), convection will spread south and east this morning. Cooler temperatures are expected in the front's wake. Initially, it appears the highest probabilities for convection will be across northern Oklahoma with gradual propagation to the southeast.
Limited moisture due to an easterly component to the low-level flow will keep convection from developing much east of the Mississippi River, if at all.
A thick blanket of high clouds will stream across the area today, keeping temperatures a degree or two cooler than they were yesterday in the middle to upper 80s. Dry and mild weather will prevail tonight as lows drop into the lower to middle 60s. Despite the change, the GFS continues to be too bullish driving showers eastward into the prevailing upper ridge axis. Given increased cloud cover, temps will be another degree or two cooler.
Tomorrow, the upper level low shifts to AZ/NM and circulation around said low will bring another round of convection. Models continue to show the trough being elongated and closing off over the NM/CO border Friday diminishing by the evening. A bit of model-model inconsistency over the weekend with the EC bringing another weak wave across the forecast area and the other models showing a ridge developing over the West.
Lows will range from the upper 40s to the low 60s. High pressure/upper level ridging will remain in control for the duration of the short-term forecast period.
There is increasing confidence for a system to develop in the Alaskan Gulf this weekend, which will help a high pressure ridge to build over the central US. Temperatures have rapidly cooled tonight and with light winds under high pressure, patchy fog is possible in northwest Montana and north-central Idaho.
Temperatures are currently in the lower to mid 60s for most locations with the Louisville metro area being the exception as it is in the lower 70s. For today, elongated mid-level ridge axis will continue to bisect the area as upper lows remain on either side centered over the Northeast and the Four Corners region. At the surface a weak frontal boundary currently draped NW to SE from French Lick, IN to Somerset, KY will become nearly stationary over the area before pushing into western KY tonight as an expansive area of high pressure builds in from the northeast. Low temperatures tonight will then follow a similar pattern ranging from the lower 50s over the Bluegrass region to lower 60s over southwestern portions of the forecast area.
643 AM EDT Thu Sep 30 2021 High pressure brings dry, pleasant Fall weather through the end of the week. Increasing chance for showers and afternoon storms returns by the end of the weekend ahead of a cold front. High pressure continues building slowly southward toward the area through tonight, beneath upper level north to northwest flow. Ridging aloft begins to flatten this weekend as a trough slides eastward.