Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
646 AM CDT Sat Sep 12 2020 (Today through Sunday) Clearing skies and light winds along with plenty of ground moisture and warm moist winds in the low levels should result in patchy areas of fog this morning across the area. Upper level winds were from the west as the upper low tracks across the Northern Plains today.
Low/mid level moisture continues to advect into the southern Valley at this time as deeper flow has shifted sly/sely thanks to the transient ridge now over New England. Later this morning and into the earlier afternoon, model guidance is indicating notable saturation in the lower levels following boundary layer mixing, which is most notable at CHA in response to low-level moisture advection. BW Chattanooga Airport, TN 89 72 86 71 87 / 50 40 40 40 60 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 88 70 86 69 83 / 60 40 60 40 50 Oak Ridge, TN 87 70 85 70 82 / 60 50 60 40 40 Tri Cities Airport, TN 83 67 82 67 81 / 40 30 60 50 40.
742 AM EDT Sat Sep 12 2020 High pressure east of the area will bring dry weather to NY and PA today. Showers are expected on Sunday as a cold front approaches from the west.
Upper low to the northeast will continue to pull away today, as mid level trough axis and weak surface reflection on the backside of it swing across the region.
523 AM MDT Sat Sep 12 2020 Current IR Satellite loop and KCYS radar imagery shows the well- defined upper level low accelerating eastward near the SD/Nebraska border across central Nebraska early this morning. It will be breezy this afternoon behind the upper level low, with northwest winds gusting up to 30-35 mph at times into early this evening. A prolonged dry period with warmer temperatures will begin this weekend as the upper level high along the western coastline moves eastward through the weekend.
Water vapor imagery this morning shows the upper level closed low slowly moving northeast through NE and SD. The upper level low will move east through the upper Midwest today, pushing a weak cold front south and east across our area. The cold front will be the focus point for storm chances. Right now it looks like it will be a thin, broken line of storms that moves through with the cold front, not impacting any one area for too long. This afternoon and evening, a cold front will move through the area, shifting winds to northwest and bringing a chance for storms.
/Issued 411 AM EDT Sat Sep 12 2020/ The upper ridge is in the process of drifting east with a moist easterly flow pattern continuing across the area today.
Upper level low pressure presently located over south central South Dakota will meander off to the east through the day today. One more day of below average temperatures remains for today, especially east of the Missouri (low to mid 60s east, mid 70s west), before becoming above average Sunday (upper 70s to mid 80s) as a ridge builds into the region. The period starts out with a high pressure ridge over the western U.
High pressure will drift east to center directly over the LKN CWFA by this evening, then proceed to north of the 4-corners area by Sunday evening. Winds may gust into the 30s in spots on Sunday across western Nevada as the high moves away and a positive-tilt trough develops over the eastern Pacific.
Included patchy fog mention across much of the area, as there has been some radiational fog in the northwest were clouds cleared out, as well as in west central MN closer to the upper low. That area of rain showers should wrap around the upper low as it moves into southern MN later today, shifting eastward. Think there should be enough clearing later in the day to get into the low to mid 70s across the northwestern counties, with the southeast stuck near 60 degrees under clouds and drizzle. This will help push a weak cold front down from Canada overnight, and could produce a bit of light precip.
351 AM MDT Sat Sep 12 2020 Dry northwest flow aloft will dominate our weather today as this week's storm system drifts east into the Upper Midwest, and a strong high pressure system slides east/southeast into Nevada. upper level high pressure will dominate the Rocky Mountain Region over the next several days.
555 AM CDT Sat Sep 12 2020 The center of the well advertised upper level low is presently nudging into the western portion of our CWA very early this morning. Showers have developed over the southeastern flank of the low center where the best vorticity advection resides, and expect this activity to slide eastward through the day collocated with the upper level feature. Model RH time sections would indicate that low clouds will be slow to clear today - probably not until late evening for most places as the upper level low moves into central MN/IA, though may see some sun over south central SD by afternoon. The upper level low will move into the Upper Mississippi Valley tonight with clouds finally clearing out of our area.
314 PM CDT Sat Sep 12 2020 A weak system is in the process of crossing over the area as an upper level low crosses west to east overhead. High pressure builds overnight for light winds and the possibility for dense fog, or at the minimum, large areas of fog. Sunday should be fairly nice day though a little on the cool side under a broad upper level trough left in the wake of the departing, but filling, upper level closed low. High pressure will largely be overhead in the extended with a few exceptions.
2 inches, along with a freezing level near 16kft per 18Z sounding. Activity will continue to the NNE with a short break this evening, and additional convection will develop ahead of the cold front overnight and into the day Sunday.
308 PM EDT Sat Sep 12 2020 Upper level high pressure ridge will drift east into tomorrow, leaving the region under enhanced moisture and sandwiched between a frontal boundary to the northwest, and newly-named Tropical Storm Sally to the south.
Upper level southwest flow will back slightly tonight and Sunday as weak low pressure aloft settles southward into New Mexico. Broad upper level ridging will spread across CONUS, and won't begin to break down until midweek.
254 PM CDT Sat Sep 12 2020 An upper level low continues its eastward progression across the SD/MN border this afternoon. As the FGEN weakens, this band will weaken through the rest of the afternoon while it moves south towards Lake Itasca, Detroit Lakes and Wahpeton/Breckenridge. A cold front associated with this wave will push south across the area late tonight and tomorrow morning, shifting winds to the north and keeping temps mostly in the 60s tomorrow.
A low pressure system spinning along the Nebraska/South Dakota boarder brought a few showers and a bit of drizzle to the area this morning. Drier and warmer weather finally returns Sunday as an upper ridge builds into the Central Plains behind the departing low. The forecast looks to remain fairly dry through the upcoming week, with high pressure remaining in control over region. High temperatures will likely top out in the lower 80s through the first half of the week.
Low/mid level moisture continues to advect into the southern Valley at this time as deeper flow has shifted sly/sely thanks to the transient ridge now over New England. CDG Chattanooga Airport, TN 72 87 71 87 68 / 40 40 40 60 30 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 70 86 69 83 65 / 40 50 40 50 20 Oak Ridge, TN 70 86 70 82 64 / 50 60 40 40 20 Tri Cities Airport, TN 67 84 67 81 60 / 30 60 50 40 20.
222 PM CDT Sat Sep 12 2020 At 2 PM, an upper level low was located over southwest Minnesota and northwest Iowa. Scattered showers were located underneath this low. Further to the east a cold front was moving east into central Wisconsin, showers and scattered storms were located ahead of this front. For tonight, the upper low will move east across northern Iowa. Meanwhile, further north the cold front will move east across northern Minnesota and northern Wisconsin. Low temperatures tonight will be in the lower and mid-50s.
The cold front will move through CKV around 12z and winds will shift to the northwest behind the front.
203 PM CDT Sat Sep 12 2020 A weak cold front currently across northwest Kansas is expected to move through eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas tonight into Sunday morning.
243 PM MDT Sat Sep 12 2020 An upper ridge will be centered over the Great Basin tonight, while on Sunday it is forecast to shift eastward over UT and into western CO. With the upper ridge in place, the weather across most of the area will be dry. Low temps tonight should mostly be in the 40s over the plains, with mainly 30s in the high valleys. Highs on Sunday should mostly be in the 80s across the plains, with 70s in the high valleys, and upper 60s to lower 70s in Teller County.
Cold front will push into the region by Sunday morning, with the highest POPs just ahead of it late tonight through about midday Sunday. Will see precip taper off from NW-SE Sunday afternoon, but that could be quite the gradual process as the upper trof axis lags behind once the front pushes east of Interstate 65. A cold front is expected to push through the CWA Sunday night.
Highest sustained winds and gusts will be across the High Plains of WY and Nebraska Panhandle this afternoon. Current IR Satellite loop and KCYS radar imagery shows the well- defined upper level low accelerating eastward near the SD/Nebraska border across central Nebraska early this morning. It will be breezy this afternoon behind the upper level low, with northwest winds gusting up to 30-35 mph at times into early this evening. A prolonged dry period with warmer temperatures will begin this weekend as the upper level high along the western coastline moves eastward through the weekend.
Water vapor imagery this morning shows the upper level closed low slowly moving northeast through NE and SD. The upper level low will move east through the upper Midwest today, pushing a weak cold front south and east across our area. The cold front will be the focus point for storm chances. Right now it looks like it will be a thin, broken line of storms that moves through with the cold front, not impacting any one area for too long. A cold front will move through the region from west to east later this afternoon and may generate a few showers, but chances will be better east of the terminals.
Current WV satellite reveals an upper low over FSD, and upper ridge over the western Great Basin, and westerly flow aloft over the Panhandles. At the surface, a weak trough has pushed south, leading to light winds generally out of the north this afternoon. For tonight through tomorrow, expect the upper ridge to shift eastward, becoming centered over UT.
Upper low moving east into MN this morning will continue to provide for some wrap around pcpn into the northeast CWA through this afternoon. Upper level low pressure presently located over south central South Dakota will meander off to the east through the day today. One more day of below average temperatures remains for today, especially east of the Missouri (low to mid 60s east, mid 70s west), before becoming above average Sunday (upper 70s to mid 80s) as a ridge builds into the region. The period starts out with a high pressure ridge over the western U.
17z surface analysis suggests the low level convergence, still just west of the MO River, may be lagging the synoptic lobe of forcing just a bit.
Given the high moisture content, some rain chances will remain in place into the overnight hrs, as early morning lows Sun fall predom into the lower 70s/near 70F. The wx heading into the new work week may then become more dependent on the eventual track of Tropical Cyclone Sally, as the system approaches the north cntrl Gulf.
400 PM CDT Sat Sep 12 2020 Upper level low continues to plod along through southern MN, with scattered showers around the core of the upper low east of I-29, and a more organized deformation band of light showers wrapping southward across northeast SD and the mid James River valley. Subtle wave rides the ridging aloft toward northern MN, and a back door front is now indicated in most solutions slipping toward the highway 14 corridor during the afternoon.
245 PM MDT Sat Sep 12 2020 Now that the closed circulation is entering the Upper Midwest and a positively tilted ridge is building in from the west, temperatures have warmed up nicely across the area with present temperatures across the Casper area a good 30 degrees warmer than this time yesterday. This warm and dry weather will be with us through the weekend as the high continues to build in from the west with at least slight above normal temperatures during the day. temperatures at night will be rather chilly with lows at or below freezing in the far western valleys and basins under clear calm conditions. An upper level area of high pressure will remain across the forecast area. Higher elevations will see highs in the low-mid 70s through the end of the next work week.
A line of showers affiliated with aforementioned upper low continues to exit our area, with lingering cloud cover over the James River Valley. Only notable feature will be a weak cold front dropping through the area which will lead to an increase in cloud cover over the far north central as a modest short wave zips through. On Sunday, quiet weather expected but temperatures will be a bit cooler behind aforementioned front.
1221 PM CDT Sat Sep 12 2020 (Today through Sunday) Clearing skies and light winds along with plenty of ground moisture and warm moist winds in the low levels should result in patchy areas of fog this morning across the area. Upper level winds were from the west as the upper low tracks across the Northern Plains today.
A weak cold front will move into northern Oklahoma this evening.
The upper flow is from the southwest with a trough extending from a low over the northern Plains to the Desert Southwest. High pressure at the surface has a weak pressure field with light and variable winds across our CWA. Sunday a cold front will stall across Central Texas just north of our CWA.
A broad upper-level anticyclone currently positioned over the northeastern Gulf moves little through the near term. Low temps tonight remain muggy and mild in the low to mid 70s. Kept the highest rain chances along the coast and east of Interstate 65, the first places to see said moisture settle in.
246 PM MDT Sat Sep 12 2020 Overall, a tranquil weather pattern will be in place the next 24 hours, as an upper level high develops over the area. Only minor issues in the longer range as we'll remain on the northeast side of the upper level ridge.
1224 PM EDT Sat Sep 12 2020 Some partial sun this afternoon will boost temps into the low 80s southeast to low 70s northwest where clouds persist. A period of showers and thunderstorms follows from west to east this evening and tonight as a cold front moves through the area. As southern South Dakota cyclone shifts eastward into western Wisconsin late this evening, expect southern periphery of strong mid level height falls, right rear quadrant 100 knot 3H jet axis over CWA should aid in ample shower/isolated thunderstorm activity late evening into overnight.
317 PM EDT Sat Sep 12 2020 High pressure will be in control through Sunday afternoon.
A closed upper low over the upper Midwest continues to work its way toward opening back up and rejoining the prevailing westerlies. This system will accelerate eastward and push a cold front through the area overnight, bringing potential for showers and a few storms.
334 PM EDT Sat Sep 12 2020 A period of showers and thunderstorms occurs from west to east this evening and tonight as a cold front moves through the area. A cold front associated with a low pressure system moving into the northern Great Lakes sweeps through the area this afternoon into tonight. The front is into Northwest OH early Sunday allowing for IN/MI areas to retain cloud cover as cooler air filters in behind the front.
251 PM EDT Sat Sep 12 2020 A cold front moves through Sunday and Sunday night.
313 PM CDT Sat Sep 12 2020 Tropical moisture connection will continue into the Midsouth on Sunday, around the western periphery of a ridge axis along the Carolina coast.
Cliff MORNING DISCUSSION: Synoptic Setup: Forecast begins with a large high pressure ridge setting over the Intermountain West of the CONUS. Today through Sunday: A glancing blow from a dry cold front to the north will move through and then just as quickly get shoved east this morning.
SHORT TERM (Tonight through Sunday Night): The strong 500mb low continues to trek across the northern Plains with the trough lifting out of the Great Lakes on Sunday as high pressure builds again across the Desert SW. Mid level low pressure continues across the Gulf of Mexico, with abundant tropical moisture moving into Deep South Texas Sunday afternoon into Sunday night. Northerly winds continue thanks to low pressure across the western Gulf of Mexico, keeping Heat Indices in the 90s Sunday afternoon.
The upper low continues to move across the Siouxland area and the 19z surface analysis suggests the low level convergence and trough, still just west of the MO River, is lagging the synoptic lobe of forcing which is into IA. After the passage of this upper low, the pattern remains fairly stagnant through much of the coming week with mid-amplitude flow keeping Iowa in varied degrees of NW flow between western ridging and an eastern trough.
Low level moisture is continuing to return to the region, as dewpoints are generally back in the lower 70s areawide. Afternoon temperatures should be a bit cooler with the rain and cloud cover in place, as highs should top out in the upper 80s.
We continue under the influence of an upper level ridge for tonight which will continue to inhibit convective activity.
249 PM CDT Sat Sep 12 2020 The center of upper level low pressure is currently centered across far southwest MN. Some wrap around moisture in the form of cloud cover continues to influence the area this afternoon, but this should quickly dissipate or move off to the east of the area this evening as the upper low continues to move off to the east. Upper level ridging builds east and northeast across the central and southern plains for the first half of the coming work week.
For the remainder of the evening high pressure will begin to build southward into the area. There is not a consensus within the short term model suite, but most likely area would be across southeast Kansas into central Missouri closer to the high. Look for lows tonight to range from the mid 50s in central Missouri and southeast Kansas to the low 60s in south central MIssouri. Sunday looks to be a dry and rather pleasant day as the center of the high pressure drifts across Iowa and the Upper Mississippi River Valley. Humidities will be lower with highs from the mid 70s to the low 80s.
For Sunday, weak high pressure will move off to the east. Highs tomorrow should peak into to the lower to mid 80s. Even with the warmer temperatures and winds, do not anticipate any fire weather headlines at this time.
Dry northwest flow aloft will dominate our weather today as this week's storm system drifts east into the Upper Midwest, and a strong high pressure system slides east/southeast into Nevada. upper level high pressure will dominate the Rocky Mountain Region over the next several days.
241 PM CDT Sat Sep 12 2020 18Z surface data has a cold front running from northern Wisconsin to eastern Arkansas. Behind the cold front another front ran from western Iowa into the Oklahoma panhandle. Dew points near and ahead of the cold front ranged from the mid 60s to the 70s while dew points in the 50s were across the northern and central Plains.
1115 AM MDT Sat Sep 12 2020 Skies were clear over eastern Utah and western Colorado overnight as dry northwest flow continued between the low over the upper Midwest and the ridge of high pressure to the West. Clear skies are expected overnight which will result in cooler than normal overnight lows, but still more moderate than in recent days. The high shifts eastward on Sunday bringing close to 5 degrees of warming to most locations across the forecast area which should result in near normal afternoon highs. Return flow on the eastern edge of the high is expected to bring a modest push of moisture to the San Juan Mountains which, when combined with greater instability associated with increased surface temperatures, should bring isolated thunderstorms.
Now that the closed circulation is entering the Upper Midwest and a positively tilted ridge is building in from the west, temperatures have warmed up nicely across the area with present temperatures across the Casper area a good 30 degrees warmer than this time yesterday. This warm and dry weather will be with us through the weekend as the high continues to build in from the west with at least slight above normal temperatures during the day. temperatures at night will be rather chilly with lows at or below freezing in the far western valleys and basins under clear calm conditions. An upper level area of high pressure will remain across the forecast area. Higher elevations will see highs in the low-mid 70s through the end of the next work week.
621 PM CDT Sat Sep 12 2020 Upper level low continues to plod along through southern MN, with scattered showers around the core of the upper low east of I-29, and a more organized deformation band of light showers wrapping southward across northeast SD and the mid James River valley. Subtle wave rides the ridging aloft toward northern MN, and a back door front is now indicated in most solutions slipping toward the highway 14 corridor during the afternoon.
A cold front will swing through tonight. A line of showers affiliated with aforementioned upper low continues to exit our area, with lingering cloud cover over the James River Valley. Only notable feature will be a weak cold front dropping through the area which will lead to an increase in cloud cover over the far north central as a modest short wave zips through. On Sunday, quiet weather expected but temperatures will be a bit cooler behind aforementioned front.
908 PM CDT Sat Sep 12 2020 A weak system is in the process of crossing over the area as an upper level low crosses west to east overhead. High pressure builds overnight for light winds and the possibility for dense fog, or at the minimum, large areas of fog. Sunday should be fairly nice day though a little on the cool side under a broad upper level trough left in the wake of the departing, but filling, upper level closed low. High pressure will largely be overhead in the extended with a few exceptions.
1048 PM EDT Sat Sep 12 2020 Showers and thunderstorms will be possible at times this afternoon into Sunday as a cold front moves through the Ohio Valley. High pressure and a drier airmass will then settle into the region through the first part of the work week. A cold front will swing across the fa on Sunday, bringing a gradual end to the showers and thunderstorms from west to east. High pressure will continue to build in for Sunday night, with decreasing clouds for the region.
Tomorrow still looks to be similarly calm and clear, but slightly warmer. Overall, a tranquil weather pattern will be in place the next 24 hours, as an upper level high develops over the area. Only minor issues in the longer range as we'll remain on the northeast side of the upper level ridge.
639 PM CDT Sat Sep 12 2020 A weak system is in the process of crossing over the area as an upper level low crosses west to east overhead. High pressure builds overnight for light winds and the possibility for dense fog, or at the minimum, large areas of fog. Sunday should be fairly nice day though a little on the cool side under a broad upper level trough left in the wake of the departing, but filling, upper level closed low. High pressure will largely be overhead in the extended with a few exceptions.
550 PM CDT Sat Sep 12 2020 At 2 PM, an upper level low was located over southwest Minnesota and northwest Iowa. Scattered showers were located underneath this low. Further to the east a cold front was moving east into central Wisconsin, showers and scattered storms were located ahead of this front. For tonight, the upper low will move east across northern Iowa. Meanwhile, further north the cold front will move east across northern Minnesota and northern Wisconsin. Low temperatures tonight will be in the lower and mid-50s.