Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
The elongated upper level trough remains over the region with the main branch of energy over southern Idaho. Most of the precip will be over the higher terrain and over the eastern plains as a majority of the moisture will be over these areas. An upper level trough over northeast Utah will move east across Colorado this morning. Lift ahead of the trough is producing widespread clouds along with scattered to isolated showers. Given the cooler temperatures expect light snow has fallen above 11000-12000 feet. This should allow temperatures to climb into the lower 70s. Expect scattered to isolated storms this afternoon, with the best chance being over the higher terrain. The mdls show a weak trough over the desert southwest Saturday aftn.
This could be from a bit of subsidence in the wake of the subtle easterly wave from yesterday and slightly more influence from the high pressure to the northeast. Upper level high pressure currently centered over Tennessee.
A weak area of low pressure extending from eastern Cuba northward to the central Bahamas is producing a disorganized area of showers and thunderstorms.
759 AM EDT FRI AUG 26 2016 A cold front will cross the region this afternoon.
705 AM CDT FRI AUG 26 2016 Region is in SW flow aloft with the area between high pressure along the E Coast and a broad low amplitude trough across the West. Cold front has stalled aligned roughly along I-70 as of early this mrng.
For now will not make changes to the high temperatures and will wait and see if this cloud band will decrease this afternoon. Temperatures are a couple of degrees warmer today, putting them within a couple degrees of normal.
Our pleasant break from the high temperatures and relative humidity will continue for another day with high temps in the lower 90s and minimum RH values of 45 to 55.
946 AM EDT FRI AUG 26 2016 High pressure will push east across the great lakes today through saturday.
A weak upper level low near Las Vegas, Nevada is expected to draw up additional monsoon moisture for greater shower and thunderstorm coverage during the weekend.
1048 AM EDT FRI AUG 26 2016 A cold front will cross the region this afternoon.
MORNING UPDATE: Weak mid level trough is moving across the region and has brought scattered rain showers across the CWA. GAH PREVIOUS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION: A general large-scale low pressure trough pattern remains in place over most of the northern Rockies and northern high plains regions. Today, the axis of this short wave trough will slide over northeast Montana and bring periods of scattered rain showers and a few thunderstorms to most of northeast Montana.
955 AM EDT FRI AUG 26 2016 Persistent pattern as high pres ridge over Mid/Deep south remains the dominant WX feature for central FL. Deep lyr NE flow around the leading flank of the ridge has advected a dry/stable continental airmass into north FL, resulting in a steep moisture gradient acrs the peninsula. RAP40 confirms much of this moisture is in the low lvls with H100-H85 dewpoint depressions btwn 2-3C over most of the peninsula, increasing to 5-7C over the panhandle. Large hi pres ridge over the Mid/Deep South will maintain long NE fetch over the W Atlc, a fetch that has pushed a 4-5FT swell into the east FL Atlc waters.
1255 PM EDT FRI AUG 26 2016 An upper level ridge will extend across the region through the weekend. Afternoon temps in the upper 90s appear likely and with dewpoints in the lower 70s, heat index values will likely reach the critical threshold of 105. Tonight, expect clear to partly cloudy skies and it will feel muggy as sfc dewpoints recover into the lower 70s. Overnight temps in the low-mid 70s. With the upper ridge to our north on Saturday, northeasterly flow will set in, though with very little change in airmass and highs again in the mid 90s.
707 AM EDT FRI AUG 26 2016 High pressure will push east across the great lakes today through saturday.
1217 PM EDT FRI AUG 26 2016 Upper level high pressure in place with hot and humid weather through the weekend. These tweaks push Heat Indices to upper 90s to near 100 degrees across portions of the lowland counties. Quiet weather on tap, with upper level high centered over the Central Appalachians. but with the upper high right over us opted to keep POPs below 15. Remaining on the humid side, with dewpoints struggling to drop below 70 across the lowlands. The area remains under an upper level ridge through the weekend.
With a weak trof moving across the region, a slight chance for showers or thunderstorms will continue through the afternoon. Broad, slow-moving trough over Saskatchewan and Montana is keeping widespread mid-level ceilings over parts of central MT this morning. Entire trough should track into eastern MT this evening, with skies steadily clearing from west to east.
1220 PM EDT FRI AUG 26 2016 An upper level ridge will extend across the region through the weekend. Afternoon temps in the upper 90s appear likely and with dewpoints in the lower 70s, heat index values will likely reach the critical threshold of 105. Tonight, expect clear to partly cloudy skies and it will feel muggy as sfc dewpoints recover into the lower 70s. Overnight temps in the low-mid 70s. With the upper ridge to our north on Saturday, northeasterly flow will set in, though with very little change in airmass and highs again in the mid 90s.
Expect a chance of thunderstorms and cooler than normal daytime temperatures through the weekend as a weak low pressure system moves into Arizona.
1045 AM EDT FRI AUG 26 2016 An upper level ridge will extend across the region through the weekend. Strong mid/upper level anti-cyclone overhead will result in hot conditions this afternoon across central NC. Elsewhere expect subsidence associated with the anti-cyclone to inhibit convective development. Tonight, expect clear to partly cloudy skies and it will feel muggy as sfc dewpoints recover into the lower 70s. Overnight temps in the low-mid 70s. With the upper ridge to our north on Saturday, northeasterly flow will set in, though with very little change in airmass and highs again in the mid 90s.
1051 AM CDT FRI AUG 26 2016 Latest sfc analysis showing that a weak high pressure ridge has settled into our northeast zones this morning with the ridging extending as far west as NW LA into NE TX. strong 700mb ThetaE ridging does exist from north to south across NE TX into SW AR and SE OK. This ridging is encompassed within a tongue of higher PWAT near 2 inches. 500mb analysis showing a strong shear axis in this vicinity as well which should continue moving slowly northwest around the upper ridging noted across the Mid Tenn Valley. Temps are in the ballpark with warmer readings expected across our eastern zones in the slightly drier airmass and lower readings to the west with better cloud cover and storm coverage expected.
Expect a chance of thunderstorms and cooler than normal daytime temperatures through the weekend as a weak low pressure system moves into Arizona. Other than the low level.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 94 74 94 73 / 50 20 20 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 94 73 93 71 / 10 10 20 10 Oak Ridge, TN 95 73 93 71 / 10 0 20 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 92 67 91 68 / 10 10 20 10.
On Friday the upper level trough will be pulling up into the Great Lakes region while high pressure begins building into the Southern Plains.
Tomorrow is expected to be dry as high pressure noses over SE Texas ahead of a cold front approaching from the northwest.
909 PM CDT THU OCT 6 2016 High pressure continues over Arkansas tonight but should weaken enough to let a cold front pass through the state late tonight and Friday. (ISSUED 646 PM CDT THU OCT 6 2016 ) A cold front will move into the northwest corner of Arkansas late tonight around 07z. Scattered to broken low and mid clouds are expected Friday and the front will be in the southeast corner by the end of the period with high pressure moving in behind it.
The cold front arrives around 15z at the I-35 terminals and about 17z at DRT. Upper air analysis this morning showed a trough over the western US with the base of the trough west of Texas. A cold front will move through north Texas tonight and our CWA tomorrow.
926 PM EDT Thu Oct 6 2016 High pressure will linger over New England into the evening then drift offshore. Low pressure over the Central Plains will track northeast through the Upper Great Lakes on Friday. The cold front associated with the low will cross the area Friday night. High pressure will return to the region over the weekend. Low pressure over the Central Plains will track northeast through the Upper Great Lakes on Friday. The cold front associated with the low will cross the area Friday night.
Synoptic Setup: Short term begins with a large trough over the middle third of the Canada and dropping down into the northern Great Plains of the the CONUS. A cool core ridge sets over the Pacific Northwest and beginning to nudge cold air out of northeast Montana. Afterward conditions will dry as a weak meso-ridge moves through the flow.
1143 PM CDT THU OCT 6 2016 As expected, a warm front has lifted northward from KS today, now located across southeast NE through central IA. Latest HRRR model runs suggest that as the upper impulse moves in from the high plains, storms will begin to intensify and move in from the west by 4-5 pm then quickly race eastward through the early evening. Indeed, western NE is seeing snow, and while we won't see that here, we will see the cooler temperatures. Lows tonight dip into the lower to mid 30s for portions of eastern NE.
with most areas in the low to middle 60s by sunrise. With regards to temperatures, another above normal day is expected on Friday afternoon as the upper level ridge of high pressure remains over us. By Friday night, the ridge will weaken enough for a cold front to drop into the region. No rain is expected with the passage, only a drier and slightly cooler airmass.
617 PM CDT THU OCT 6 2016 Cold front moving through the Panhandles will bring with it a strong shift out of the north with gusts up to 35kt. On Friday the upper level trough will be pulling up into the Great Lakes region while high pressure begins building into the Southern Plains.
1057 PM CDT Thu Oct 6 2016 Strong upper low continues to churn in south central Canada at this time. On the southern periphery of this low, vigorous short wave energy is moving rapidly northeastward squarely across this area and eastern Nebraska through 06Z this evening before exiting. At the surface, low pressure over central KS is extending an inverted trough northeastward into northern IA. Despite the deep northerly flow in the low levels, some TSRA is inching northward into our southern zones at this time due to instability in the mid levels, governed by a southwest flow aloft.
Storms that coalesced with constructive outflows/deeper lifting (mainly east of Childress near HWY 287) should still tap into ample elevated CAPE, but trends overall point to reduced severe modes even as a cold front surges south in the coming hours.
Believe western zones will drop to the lower 30s. Surface ridging from southeast Sask through Elbow Lake area will bring calm winds to the Devils Lake basin down through the southern Red River valley, allowing temperatures to possibly drop into the mid to upper 20s west of the valley and across the southern valley.
Convection was scattered over the Victoria Crossroads region this afternoon in closer proximity to the higher moisture axis. Expect there will sufficient heating and weak low level convergence to provide lift to produce isolated to scattered convection Friday afternoon ahead of the cold front that will move through Friday night. Winds will become northeasterly Friday in advance of the cold front that arrives Friday night. Isolated convection will be possible in the afternoon with the higher threat in the LRD area.
With Matthew to our southeast and a line of severe thunderstorms off to our west, high pressure and clear skies dominate the forecast in Middle TN this evening.
632 PM CDT Thu Oct 6 2016 Clear skies are expected to continue tonight under the ridge of high pressure. At the same time, slightly cooler 850 temps will make their way into the area as well thanks to a brief northeasterly wind. Temps will still be able to rise into the middle and upper 80s but will probably be a degree or two cooler than Thursday, especially where clouds may prevail in the southeast. Winds turn to the north after midnight Friday night as the ridge slowly starts to break down, bringing back the drier air and scattering out any clouds that may have formed and warming 850 temps slightly. Lows will therefore be a touch warmer than previous nights, in the lower 60s.
511 PM MDT Thu Oct 6 2016 Broad upper trough sits across the central CONUS with the upper low across central Canada. Dry weather is then expected the rest of the night and Friday with high pressure in control. Temps tonight are expected to reach freezing across the CWA. except for nw SD which reached freezing temps early this morning.
Overnight, the moist low levels will have a tendency to keep temperatures up a bit, but freezing temperatures still expected in most locations. Satellite shows lingering light snow showers over the higher terrain of Berthoud and Cameron pass that will last for the next few hours. Freezing level will continue to be around 7,500 ft in the mountains but with a surge of cold air from the NE some light snow will be possible over Sedgwick and Phillips counties over the next few hours. As the upper trough continues to make its way across the state subsidence and drying behind it will help to clear out conditions through the evening. For Friday the upper level trough will be over western Kansas with ridging moving into Colorado. Highs will rebound back into the lower to mid 60s on the plains under mostly sunny skies.
Highs tomorrow will be slightly warmer than normal due to the increasing subsidence taking hold on the western periphery of Hurricane Matthew.
Still could see gusty winds/brief heavy rain in the stronger storms, along/north of I-44 and especially southwest of Tulsa where surface based instability remains the highest.
Thunderstorms and Another Cold Front. Another cold front will push south across West Central Texas late tonight and tomorrow. By tomorrow afternoon, expect winds from the north and cooler temperatures, with most of the thunderstorm activity along or near our Interstate 10 corridor.
Temps on track to dip down near freezing in most locations tonight. A northwest flow aloft will be over the forecast area tonight before high pressure ridging begins to build over the area during the day Friday. Overnight lows will drop near freezing again by Friday morning. How chilly and what locations hit freezing will depend on how much and for how long the cloud cover clear as we are still expecting considerable clouds tonight.
733 PM EDT THU OCT 6 2016 The surface pressure ridge extending into the forecast area from the north will weaken through tonight while the inverted trough will remain near the Georgia and South Carolina coast.
418 PM EDT Thu Oct 6 2016 An upper ridge of high pressure will weaken and move to the east tonight and Friday.
Temperatures will remain warm and muggy with lows tonight in the mid 70s to near 80 and highs on Friday in the lower to middle 80s.
930 PM CDT Thu Oct 6 2016 Clear skies will continue tonight as the ridge of high pressure remains across the forecast area. At the same time, slightly cooler 850 temps will make their way into the area as well thanks to a brief northeasterly wind. Temps will still be able to rise into the middle and upper 80s but will probably be a degree or two cooler than Thursday, especially where clouds may prevail in the southeast. Winds turn to the north after midnight Friday night as the ridge slowly starts to break down, bringing back the drier air and scattering out any clouds that may have formed and warming 850 temps slightly. Lows will therefore be a touch warmer than previous nights, in the lower 60s.
1259 AM EDT Fri Oct 7 2016 After a foggy start along the rivers, high pressure will bring a summer-like day to the region today, with temperatures in the 70s.
Expect a few snow showers over the higher terrain into the early evening hours. Skies will clear overnight and allow some valleys to drop to freezing or just below.
An area of low pressure was developing in the Central Plains late this afternoon and will quickly move into northern Wisconsin tonight. The deterministic RAP/GFS/NAM each bring the deepening low pressure northeast into the Northland tonight. Cross-sections from central Wisconsin to northwest Minnesota indicated a robust area of EPV generation along and above strong frontogenesis ahead of and to the left of the low. Even with antecedent surface temperatures from the low 40s to low 60s across the area this afternoon, the cold rain will quickly cool surface and road temperatures to near freezing.
1158 PM CDT THU OCT 6 2016 The long-awaited cold front is nearing North TX tonight and a cluster of storms is taking shape around the Wichita Falls area. The cold front and associated storms will approach the DFW Metroplex by 09-10z and will impact the TAF sites for a few hours. As an upper level trough currently over the northern and central Rockies moves east, a cold front that extended from southeastern Nebraska (southeast of Beatrice /KBIE/) through southwestern Kansas into extreme northeastern New Mexico at 3 PM, will move southeast. Scattered showers and thunderstorms have developed along the cold front and expect the areal coverage to increase through this evening.
This boundary marked by enhanced backing of low level winds along KS/OK border, and a few severe storms have developed this afternoon near intersection of cold front and outflow boundary. These storms will have enhanced severe potential trough this evening, including a limited tornado threat. Additional storms are expected to develop along the advancing cold front and move into northeast Oklahoma later this evening. Front will usher in a much cooler airmass Friday with low rain chances lingering in southeastern areas Friday morning.
Conditions will improve on friday as the cold front responsible for the thunderstorms pushes south and east of the area.
The High Res models still indicate at least scattered showers and thunderstorms moving south with the cold front across the Big Country after midnight. Cold front will move into the area late tonight, reaching KABI (Abilene) shortly before sunrise. Another cold front will push south across West Central Texas late tonight and tomorrow. By tomorrow afternoon, expect winds from the north and cooler temperatures, with most of the thunderstorm activity along or near our Interstate 10 corridor.
Latest WV imagery and UA analysis continue to show a large trough over the wrn CONUS while Hurricane Matthew continues to progress nwwd toward the SE FL coast. Aftn highs will again be about 5-8 degrees abv normal, around 90 or into the lower 90s, but conditions will be otherwise tolerable as relative humidity values will run 35-45 percent acrs all but coastal areas. Temperatures in the wake of the front will be slightly cooler, running 5-8 degrees below normal in the morning and near normal in the aftn.
These type of dynamics can cause problems with precipitation type (Even in early October if conditions are right), especially considering cooler critical temperatures below 85h developing in central Minnesota toward midnight. Temperatures in central Minnesota where the mixture of rain/snow is possible after midnight, will remain well above the freezing mark to not have any weather impacts. Much cooler temperatures will follow this front with highs on Friday not rising out of the 40s in central Minnesota.
Widespread showers and storms are then expected to develop late evening in the west ahead of a strong approaching cold front. Could be a few strong to severe storms given increasing mixed layer CAPE and pretty good shear through the lowest 6 km. Showers will wind west to east early Friday morning, with cooler temps and breezy winds through the remainder of the day.
322 PM CDT Thu Oct 6 2016 Strong upper low continues to churn in south central Canada at this time. On the southern periphery of this low, vigorous short wave energy is moving rapidly northeastward squarely across this area and eastern Nebraska through 06Z this evening before exiting. At the surface, low pressure over central KS is extending an inverted trough northeastward into northern IA. Despite the deep northerly flow in the low levels, some TSRA is inching northward into our southern zones at this time due to instability in the mid levels, governed by a southwest flow aloft.
710 PM EDT Thu Oct 6 2016 High pressure will linger over New England into the evening then drift offshore. Low pressure over the Central Plains will track northeast through the Upper Great Lakes on Friday. The cold front associated with the low will cross the area Friday night. High pressure will return to the region over the weekend. Low pressure over the Central Plains will track northeast through the Upper Great Lakes on Friday. The cold front associated with the low will cross the area Friday night.
1158 PM EDT Thu Oct 6 2016 High pressure will bring dry conditions and mild temperatures through Friday night.
Storms that coalesced with constructive outflows/deeper lifting (mainly east of Childress near HWY 287) should still tap into ample elevated CAPE, but trends overall point to reduced severe modes even as a cold front surges south in the coming hours. By late evening, a fast moving cold front will quickly dive south across West Texas with the expectation that thunderstorm activity will re-ignite especially near KCDS.
405 PM CDT Thu Oct 6 2016 The next 12 hours look to be a bit busy as storms persist across the region ahead of, and eventually along, a cold front that will sweep through far eastern Kansas and Missouri later tonight. It is this large trough it will push the frontal boundary southeast trough eastern Kansas and Missouri tonight. The low levels of the atmosphere have remained a bit stable in area due to the cloud cover from the convection earlier today. Otherwise, a cold front will follow the storms through the region tonight, helping clear out clouds Friday morning.
TSRA very roughly along a cold front will continue a gradual diminishing trend overnight. At 0445Z the cold front extended approximately from KSNL-KDUC-KFDR-KCDS, and was continuing to move quickly toward the southeast. /issued 922 PM CDT THU OCT 6 2016/ The strong cold front extended from near Stillwater to Clinton/Weatherford to Elk City at 9 pm. At 23Z a strong cold front was just entering the northwest corner of Oklahoma (east of the Panhandle), approaching KGAG and KWWR. Additional storms are expected to form along a cold front in northwest/north central Oklahoma by early evening. Storms will continue to form along a cold front during the evening and overnight with a risk of hail and damaging winds.
304 PM CDT Thu Oct 6 2016 A broad upper ridge remains over much of the eastern United States this evening and through the overnight as Hurricane Matthew treks up the eastern Florida coast. At the same time, slightly cooler 850 temps will make their way into the area as well thanks to a brief northeasterly wind. Temps will still be able to rise into the middle and upper 80s but will probably be a degree or two cooler than Thursday, especially where clouds may prevail in the southeast. Winds turn to the north after midnight Friday night as the ridge slowly starts to break down, bringing back the drier air and scattering out any clouds that may have formed and warming 850 temps slightly. Lows will therefore be a touch warmer than previous nights, in the lower 60s.
922 PM CDT THU OCT 6 2016 The strong cold front extended from near Stillwater to Clinton/Weatherford to Elk City at 9 pm. At 23Z a strong cold front was just entering the northwest corner of Oklahoma (east of the Panhandle), approaching KGAG and KWWR. Additional storms are expected to form along a cold front in northwest/north central Oklahoma by early evening. Storms will continue to form along a cold front during the evening and overnight with a risk of hail and damaging winds.