Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
632 PM CDT Tue Sep 12 2017 219 PM CDT Deterministic NAM/GFS/ECM are in reasonable agreement regarding the track of the stacked low pressure system associated with the remnants of Irma through late Wednesday. All three show a closed upper low lifting into the Ohio Valley with the surface center opening into a weak trough over southern Illinois. Considerable cloudiness across the southeast half of the forecast area will flatten the diurnal temperature curve tonight and tomorrow, keeping that area warmer overnight and cooler tomorrow than areas to the northwest.
This feature continues to enhance subsidence fields/high pressure to it's north which includes the local area.
Over the West, a trough will evolve which will enhance the ridge over the Midwest.
Storm chances will be slight and confined to the higher terrain of Arizona today and Wednesday.
854 PM CDT Tue Sep 12 2017 Most of the high resolution models are keeping the FA dry tonight. For that reason will remove the low pcpn chances we had going across the far south for late tonight.
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a low pressure system moves into California through Wednesday.
As the low pressure center pushes northward, periods of rain will develop once again. The short-range models such as the nam/ruc/hrrr indicate rain will move back into western Kentucky late this afternoon, then overspread the lower Ohio Valley and se Missouri this evening. The rain could be rather persistent under the deformation zone on the northwest side of the mid-level closed low. Another area of rain is forecast to move north into western Kentucky late tonight, closely tied to the low-level circulation center. On Wednesday, the weak remnant low pressure center will drift northeast across west KY and southern IL. Light rain and drizzle will be fairly widespread in the morning, then a decreasing trend should occur in the afternoon as the low moves into the Wabash Valley.
The remnant low from Irma becomes embedded in a large upper trough over the lower MS Valley and eventually starts to drift north to northeast into KY by Wednesday. 01 The remnants of Irma will have been absorbed into the upper trough and will be departing the northeast U.
Models depict a ridge expanding across the west Atlantic on Wednesday but keeping a generally light flow in place, with periods of sea breezes developing each afternoon.
1118 PM CDT Tue Sep 12 2017 High-level cirroform cloudiness should slowly diminish from west to east tonight, with low-level ridge axis keeping fairly light and variable winds in place. Lee trough development will occur on Wednesday leading to southerly flow and temperatures warming to above normal across the forecast area.
511 PM MDT Tue Sep 12 2017 Afternoon convection has developed as expected today with isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms being confined to the higher terrain, though a few storms may drift off into the lower valleys. For Wednesday, a closed low will slowly meander across southern California, flattening the weak upper level ridge over our forecast area.
This as Irma advances into the northeast CONUS and ridging becomes reestablished through the southeast Conus and adjacent coastal waters. Rain chances will remain in check as any significant atmospheric moisture will be confined to primarily the lower levels, while dry air on a northwest flow acts as an effective convective cap aloft. This as Irma advances into the northeast CONUS and high pressure becomes reestablished over the northwest gulf.
The 500 mb closed low associated with the remnants of Irma is expected to slide northeast from the Mississippi/Alabama area into the Ohio River Valley during this period. Lows tonight should be in the lower to middle 50s.
735 PM EDT Tue Sep 12 2017 High pressure will provide the region with another cool night, along with valley fog towards daybreak.
A series of storm systems will bring cooler and wetter conditions to Utah and southwest Wyoming for the second half of the work week, with drier conditions returning for the weekend. The low pressure system currently off the central California coast has started to shift eastward and will be making its way onshore tonight. Meanwhile over Utah, the ridge that has been in place has shifted east a bit, and the moisture axis now extends from northwest to east-central Utah as drier air has spread into southwest Utah. Otherwise, lingering moisture will allow isolated to scattered convection elsewhere across the area, especially over the higher terrain and downstream.
Isolated storms will still be possible overnight as an upper low near the central CA coast keeps the Sierra and western NV in a favorable spot for large scale lift. This low will begin to move inland Wednesday with another day for scattered showers and storms. /Issued 112 PM PDT Tue Sep 12 2017/ Low pressure near the California coast along with above normal moisture will produce good chances for showers and thunderstorms through Wednesday.
Current thinking is that dry air in the low and mid levels will limit this activity to just sprinkles however. High temperatures look to be a touch higher than this afternoon with 850mb temps in the low to mid 20s C, resulting in widespread mid 80s to mid 90s. Strong southerly surface pressure gradient in place on Wednesday night, especially east of the James River, as low pressure deepens a bit over central SD. Will have to watch the Buffalo Ridge area as well with winds possibly turning a bit south southwest and a fairly shallow inversion in place. This pattern is occasionally supportive of stronger winds on the ridge so will go a little higher, but not too high as the wind direction is not quite normal to the Buffalo Ridge. For now chances will remain on the low end.
Upper low off the California coast with unstable southerly flow aloft into central Oregon this afternoon and evening.
sunny skies continue to persist with temperatures ranging from the upper 80s into the lower 90s. with the area remaining between high pressure to the east and a trough over east Colorado. isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms have developed and moved across portions of eastern Colorado near the trough. H5/H7 ridging over the area will give locales highs around or in the 90s thru the period.
Coverage of showers will be too sparse and light to include in the forecast as dry air in the low levels will cause any surviving activity to become virga during the morning. Borderline VFR/MVFR ceiling is possible over the DTW corridor during the afternoon as the low level moisture increases.
The low pressure formerly known as Irma is centered west of KMSL as of 20Z. The bulk of the precip stretches out well to the south, west, and northwest of the low center. Irma's low pressure center will drive NW and nearly dissipate by daybreak, but the parent upper circulation is gradually lifting north across the Tennessee Valley. But there will likely be enough light rain and/or measurable drizzle to justify high PoPs, particularly across NW AL and S TN, as the upper low lifts northward. Irma's effects will continue well into Wednesday as the upper low continues drifting into the Ohio Valley.
Lows tonight range from the mid 50s inland to the lower 60s at the coast.
Quiet weather pattern persists through the week with a ridge of high pressure to the west and the upper low associated with the remnants of Irma over the Southeast United States.
Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible over the higher terrain late this afternoon and evening, potentially moving out onto the foothills and plains this evening as weak energy and monsoonal moisture move into the region. Wednesday looks to be the hottest day for the foreseeable future with 80s expected for most places, before a cold front moves through during the afternoon ushering in cooler temperatures.
So light rain chances will linger through Wed afternoon, then drier air will return to the area as the upper trough slowly departs to the east. Highs on Wed will be a little cooler than today E of I-55, with upper 60s in our E-SE counties closer to the upper low/cold pool, and mid to upper 70s along and NW of the Illinois river. The departing surface and upper level low pressure centers will set the stage for a gradual warming trend to close out the week.
925 PM PDT Tue Sep 12 2017 An upper low will linger off the coast tonight before shifting east Wednesday.
/Issued 344 PM CDT Tue Sep 12 2017/ Clouds associated with the remnants of Irma have spread westward into eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas today, keeping temperatures cooler. In the wake of Irma, a ridge of high pressure will build over the Southern Plains starting Wednesday, and persisting into the weekend.
Not as confident the lower visibilities from the smoke will affect our FA, so will continue to monitor them for now.
The center track of Irma's remnants will shift back northeast across the Ohio Valley Wednesday, bringing a second wave of rain to all terminals during the afternoon in the form of a trailing cold front.
Afternoon highs, mostly in the low 60s, are closer to normal low temperatures for mid-September. Tomorrow the low formally associated with Irma will begin to shift off to the North Northeast.
511 PM MDT Tue Sep 12 2017 Water vapor imagery shows compact upper low centered across western SD pushing E/NE. Activity tonight will continue to slide eastward as the upper low moves into the central and eastern Dakotas overnight. Flat upper ridging will continue across the region through Wednesday with the next upper wave bringing additional chances for storms Wed afternoon and evening.
Light to moderate rain on the southwest flank of the low is moving into areas as far west as Southeast Oklahoma and extreme East Texas.
916 PM PDT Tue Sep 12 2017 A cold front passage tonight will bring gusty winds and cooler temperatures for the rest of the work week.
719 PM CDT Tue Sep 12 2017 Quiet weather continues across the region, as high pressure maintains control across the upper midwest. The thermal ridge leans in even farther tomorrow, so expect a few degrees warmer than today, possibly reaching 90 degrees in western MN.
1041 PM EDT Tue Sep 12 2017 High pressure will remain over the region through Wednesday.
High pressure over the area will keep winds and seas light through the end of the week.
Aloft we see remnants of Irma to the southeast in MS/AL, upper ridging extending from AZ/NM north through the Rockies/western plains, an upper low pressure system in the Pacific off the coast of CA, and fairly zonal flow across the Canadian provinces.
931 PM EDT Tue Sep 12 2017 The remnants of Tropical Cyclone Irma will gradually dissipate over the mid Mississippi valley through Wednesday. Weak high pressure will build into the area through the weekend, as Hurricane Jose spins in the Atlantic between the Bahamas and Bermuda. Lows from the mid 60s inland to the lower 70s coast look on track. Weak high pressure over the southwestern Atlantic will be in control on Wednesday across the region as the upper low from the remnants of Irma spins over the Mid-Mississippi Valley.
927 PM EDT Tue Sep 12 2017 A ridge of high pressure elongated over the lower Great Lakes will weaken and slide east tonight.
The weather picture during the short term can be summed up with an upper level ridge over the Rockies and the remnants over the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys. Towards the surface, a trough of low pressure will be located across eastern Colorado. As for temperatures, lows tonight are expected to dip into the upper 50s with highs tomorrow reaching into the low to mid 90s.
639 PM CDT Tue Sep 12 2017 Summer-ish feel to the air for the rest of the work week as high pressure slides to the east and warm, southerly winds usher in warmer air.
/issued 405 PM CDT Tue Sep 12 2017/ Interesting meteorological process underway nearby that we normally do not see around here in September as it relates to tropical cyclone transitions. The upper portion, essentially everything above 400 mb, of Irma's circulation has remained intact in the vicinity of Memphis, TN while the lower portion of the column has detached while warm occluding over northern Alabama.
A slight increase in the low-lvl wind field is anticipated tonight as the now broad low shifts to the N-NE. Irma's effects will continue well into Wednesday as the upper low continues drifting into the Ohio Valley.
757 PM EDT Tue Sep 12 2017 An area of low pressure will track northeast along a retreating warm front that will pivot north across central NC into VA tonight. Also, adjusted hourly temperatures (warmer) to capture observed trends. Isolated showers continue to stream northward across central NC as a surface warm front lifts slowly north.
708 PM EDT Tue Sep 12 2017 A ridge of high pressure elongated over the lower Great Lakes will weaken and slide east tonight.
1145 PM CDT Tue Sep 12 2017 Summer-ish feel to the air for the rest of the work week as high pressure slides to the east and warm, southerly winds usher in warmer air.
1111 PM EDT Tue Sep 12 2017 A warm front crosses the region tonight into Wednesday morning as the remnants of Irma lift northeastward into the Ohio Valley.
As we go into the evening hours, expect the low pressure center to be lifted northward, shifting a zone of isentropic lift over the west- central portions of the state.
The whole system will lift northeast through the lower Ohio Valley Wednesday through Wednesday night.
756 PM EDT Thu Aug 17 2017 A cold front will move through the region late in the overnight and into the morning on Friday.
in the low to middle 90s instead of the tipple digits we saw yesterday and today. The most noticeable difference in the airmass change will be a drier atmosphere on Friday, with heat indices only in the lower 90s.
Proton Previous Discussion: Synoptic Setup: A zonal flow setup is anticipated through the short term with a succession of troughs and ridges embedded within the flow. The first ridge is located over the Pacific Northwest and British Columbia and is attached to the warm air over the Desert Southwest. The first trough is located just of the coast of British Columbia. Meanwhile the Ridge to the west will move across western Montana. Friday: Ridge will move across the area quickly pushing out any cool air during the morning.
Once the upper level disturbance moves east into the northern plains, warmer and drier air aloft will move over the forecast area.
1129 PM CDT Thu Aug 17 2017 A beautiful afternoon across the Lwr Missouri Vly as high pressure remains in control for the time being. Afternoon temps have warmed into the lower 80s across most areas, with noticeably less humidity thanks to drier air following last night's frontal passage. Similar conditions should persist through the overnight hours with lows fall into into the lower 60s for most. This will ultimately result in a weak boundary lifting north across the area with scattered shwr/storm chances Friday morning, with additional activity possible during the afternoon hours as associated cold front passes later in the day. For now, best severe potential looks to hold off until after 21z as wind fields aloft should be increasing during this timeframe as main trough axis passes just to our north.
As for intensity of any storms tonight, some small hail isn't out of the question with freezing levels currently around 10 kft (near DVL) but instability and shear remain relatively weak (~1000 J/kg and ~25 kts, respectively).
The low levels remain fairly dry and according to observations, it appears that there isn't too much precip reaching the ground with fairly high cloud bases. Convection should stay fairly anchored to the higher terrain with pop and drop variety and most activity dying with the sunset. Friday looks mostly dry with high pressure sitting south of the region. 6 inches on average as high pressure remains anchored to the south of the region.
853 PM EDT Thu Aug 17 2017 A trough of low pressure at the surface will extend across the Piedmont of Virginia south into the Carolinas through Friday.
Have dropped the mention of POPS for tomorrow given the trends of deepening high pressure over the region and lowering PWs. Think it's probably prudent to leave the lowish POPs already in place going overnight.
Clouds and a few showers will linger behind as cooler, drier air works into the region tonight into early Friday.
845 PM CDT Thu Aug 17 2017 We have some lingering showers around the area as a spoke of vorticity rotates around the bottom the upper low center. Strong low pressure will continue to lift northeast toward the eastern basin of Lake Superior overnight. The clouds wrapping around a large low pressure system lifting northeast from the U. Westerly winds will remain elevated overnight, gradually relaxing from west to east later tonight as the low pulls away. An occluding low pressure system will track from northern Wisconsin towards Lake Superior tonight. We'll see a bit more sunshine on Friday as low pressure pulls away.
604 PM CDT Thu Aug 17 2017 A beautiful afternoon across the Lwr Missouri Vly as high pressure remains in control for the time being. Afternoon temps have warmed into the lower 80s across most areas, with noticeably less humidity thanks to drier air following last night's frontal passage. Similar conditions should persist through the overnight hours with lows fall into into the lower 60s for most. This will ultimately result in a weak boundary lifting north across the area with scattered shwr/storm chances Friday morning, with additional activity possible during the afternoon hours as associated cold front passes later in the day. For now, best severe potential looks to hold off until after 21z as wind fields aloft should be increasing during this timeframe as main trough axis passes just to our north.
919 PM CDT Thu Aug 17 2017 Slightly cooler and less humid air is filtering into central and southeast Illinois in the wake of a weak cold front. Neutral upper-level flow and surface ridging will also build in behind the front. 19z/2pm surface analysis shows a cold front advancing slowly eastward across central Illinois, with the boundary essentially along the I-55 corridor. Once the front passes, skies will become clear and low temperatures will drop into the lower to middle 60s.
Highest radar recorded winds were in the low 40mph range, but highest recorded sfc gusts were blo 30mph. Broad Bermuda Ridge axis just north over central FL will maintain a loose pgrad over the lcl Atlc overnight.
Across the eastern Zones, dewpoints have lowered into the lower 70s with the help of the southwest winds. Model guidance is showing even better mixing tomorrow afternoon and therefore, highs should be a bit warmer, near 100 degrees for most locations.
Weak upper trough over the southwest CONUS extending off the California Coast for southwesterly flow aloft. More distinct cyclonic circulations include a weak upper low centered west of southern Baja and another larger one centered near the far south Texas coast. Models continue to show the upper trough becoming a closed low and the subtropical high migrating eastward leading to more southerly flow and some moist advection over us.
705 PM EDT Thu Aug 17 2017 A trough of low pressure at the surface will extend across the Piedmont of Virginia south into the Carolinas through Friday.
Still a few showers/patches of drizzle rotating across the area mainly east of the Mississippi River under the low. Temperatures were in the middle 60s to the lower 70s. For tonight, the low will continue to pull northeast into southern Ontario Canada with showers exiting, winds decreasing, and clearing expected after midnight. A mid-level trough on the heels of the departing low is expected to produce an increase in altocumulus toward morning mainly west of the Mississippi River. Altocumulus will continue to spread across the area Friday with a few showers and a slight chance of thunderstorms as that mid-level trough rotates through. Otherwise, it will be slightly cooler than normal as highs top off in the 70s.
Deep layer ridging will remain in place across our area through the rest of today and tonight. Heat indices will remain in the low-mid 100s across much of our area this afternoon through the early evening with temperatures in the lower-mid 90s and dewpoints in the 70s.
As the upper weather pattern shifts, and high pressure becomes more dominate across the region, dry conditions will return to West Central Texas.
906 PM EDT Thu Aug 17 2017 Rain is likely with a cold front tonight into Friday. Cold frontal slowly dying convection has moved into the area and is currently traversing the panhandle of WV. Cooler air will finally arrive Friday night with the frontal passage having not occurred until Friday afternoon.
However, temperatures will remain hot, with max temperatures in the lower triple digits out west and low to mid 90s across eastern portions of the CWA. A few clouds will be possible along the coast overnight into tomorrow morning, but given drier conditions skies will be mostly clear and low temperatures will be a bit cooler than previous nights. Temperatures will be similar to today, but with the low-level moisture expected to mix out with the drier air aloft, it will feel a bit cooler across South Texas tomorrow with heat indices remaining below heat advisory criteria.
723 PM EDT Thu Aug 17 2017 High pressure will shift east tonight as a warm front approaches from the southwest. Showers and thunderstorms are possible with the warm front after midnight tonight into Friday, especially in northern New York.
A weak system will brush the area Friday bringing slightly cooler conditions and a chance of light rain or drizzle mainly to the north coast and north Cascades.
Will likely see some buildups over the higher peaks but anything that could possibly form will likely be short lived and weak (and over the highest terrain).
Drying and subsidence moves into the area during the day as mid level heights rise and ridging moves into area.
(Friday night through Thursday) As the upper weather pattern shifts, and high pressure becomes more dominate across the region, dry conditions will return to West Central Texas.
744 PM EDT Thu Aug 17 2017 High pressure will shift east tonight as a warm front approaches from the southwest. Showers and thunderstorms are possible with the warm front after midnight tonight into Friday, especially in northern New York.
High pressure over the western Atlantic waters will continue to remain nearly stationary through this weekend, as an upper level low over the Bahamas moves westward into the Gulf of Mexico. Highs on Friday will be near record ranging from the mid to upper 90s over South Florida, due to the lower shower and thunderstorm coverage.
1038 PM CDT Thu Aug 17 2017 Pleasant and quiet conditions have prevailed today, with northwesterly surface winds on the backside of the closed upper low bringing drier airmass over the region. Lingering showers and isolated storms could persist through mid- morning, then partly sunny skies will give way to a warmer but seasonably day with afternoon dewpoints in the lower 60s. As the 75 knot to 85 knot upper level jet max dives south on Friday evening scattered thunderstorms will be possible along and east of the Buffalo Ridge. The freezing level also down about 4000 feet from yesterday and closer to 10000 feet AGl which would support a better chance for hail.
as a weak upper level ridge resides over the region.
Weak high pressure continues to ridge across the area at the surface and aloft. A weak inverted trough is currently in place across the Bahamas region. The inverted trough at the upper levels will move over south FL for Friday while the surface portion lingers just to the east of the state.
Spotty showers/storms are expected as we step through the afternoon with overall limited coverage given influence from the ridge; however, trends still favor 'better' chances across the northwestern portions of the forecast area late afternoon into evening as the first upper impulse arrives.