Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Light NNW winds around 5 mph or less expected this evening, becoming variable to calm overnight and remaining variable Sunday as the high settles over the area. Could see a few spots hit the freezing mark but just briefly over our northern tier of counties/parishes.
This will be a big factor in the low temperatures tonight. Eastern CWA may be a bit shakier with getting lows much below freezing, as the significant clearing likely won't get that far east until late in the night. As our deep upper trough shifts east overnight, a southwest flow will help moderate temperatures on Sunday, into the upper 40s to lower 50s. Upper level swirl, seen in water vapor imagery over northern Saskatchewan this afternoon, will be dropping southeast and forming a closed low this weekend. This will bring another surge of cooler air southward, dropping highs deeper into the 40s by Halloween.
00Z TAF Set Cold front has moved east of all TAF sites.
Mostly clear skies prevail across the CWA this evening, except along the coast, over the coastal waters, and in the lower Umpqua Basin, where marine stratus is making for cloudy skies. This weather comes courtesy of a long wave ridge with an axis right along the west coast, which is now weakening as a short wave dives over the top of it.
Main uncertainty toward morning surrounds if surface temperatures do not climb as much as expected, there would likely be a small window for some very light freezing rain.
High pressure will continue to slide south across Texas tonight and settle over the region through the overnight hours.
736 PM EDT Sat Oct 28 2017 Aviation Low pressure near Mackinac Island will move to northern Quebec tonight and a weak area of high pressure will overspread Lower Michigan Sunday. Another low pressure system will produce more scattered mixed rain and snow showers Sunday night.
/issued 329 PM CDT Sat Oct 28 2017/ Temperatures range from the low 40s in northwest TN to the mid 50s in northeast MS this afternoon. Tomorrow will be a bit warmer, mainly due to less expected cloud cover. Winds will back during the day towards the south which should keep the area above freezing tomorrow night. Significantly warmer conditions are expected to begin the work week with sunny skies and southerly winds leading to high temps in the mid 60s to near 70.
1132 PM CDT Sat Oct 28 2017 Early morning temperatures dipped into the upper 20s to lower 30s, with virtually every location with an observation recording freezing temperatures. While the headlines have been expired, we can still expect one more night of freezing temperatures, with some areas falling several degrees below last nights low temperatures. Middle to upper 20s are expected, with the exception of the KC urban areas that should remain warmer in the lower 30s. With the ridge axis moving east, warm air advection ahead of the next cold front will bring much warmer conditions Sunday afternoon with readings closer to normal in the middle 50s to lower 60s.
610 PM MDT Sat Oct 28 2017 Large scale trough over the eastern US and ridge across the western US remain in place, with northerly flow across the Plains (including our CWA). At the Surface a trough axis currently bisects our CWA, with a stalled front near the Colorado border. Surface winds shift to the west overnight with increasing WAA through the night, and most locations should see overnight lows above freezing for the first time in several nights. This trough will push a cold front towards our CWA, and current guidance has this passage late enough in the afternoon to allow for a good window of WAA over at least the southerly half of our CWA. This will again depend on the timing of the cold front (the earlier the stronger the winds).
As high pressure at the surface continues to move off to the east and a short wave moves east of the Southern Plains, winds are becoming more southerly and with that a return in moisture. High pressure is currently moving east across the Mississippi Valley early this morning. The cool air mass associated the ridge has settled in with 40s down to the I-10 corridor, however as the ridge pushes east today a return flow will begin. The surface east to northeast flow will shift more southeast today as the ridge pushes east.
By Friday night, a potent backdoor cold front is forecast to move into eastern New Mexico.
349 PM CDT Thu Apr 5 2018 A coastal trough situated off of the Texas coast and southerly flow has allowed for scattered showers and a few thunderstorms to develop along and near the coast this afternoon. Temperatures on Friday will rise into the low to mid 90s across the Rio Grande with 80s closer to the Coast.
1129 AM MDT Thu Apr 5 2018 Today/Tonight: Canadian high pressure will build southeastward into the Upper Midwest tonight in association with subsidence in the wake of a potent upper level low progressing southeast from Saskatchewan/Manitoba to the Upper Great Lakes.
Weak cold front has now made its way down into South Florida with mainly clear skies and northerly winds behind the front. High pressure ridging over the coastal waters from the north will produce a moderate pressure gradient and will bring an increase to winds and seas over the eastern Gulf of Mexico early this morning. This increase in winds will be short lived with decreasing winds expected by Friday as high pressure settles into the area.
142 PM EDT Thu Apr 5 2018 High pressure along with cooler and drier air will be over the region through Friday then move eastward as the next low pressure system approaches.
1236 PM CDT Thu Apr 5 2018 Updated for 18Z aviation discussion 18Z TAF discussion: As high pressure pushes off to the east today, high clouds will continue to move over the northern part of area. High pressure at the surface will shift east of the forecast area through the period, with winds gradually becoming more southerly in the process. The subtle increase in moisture will result in slightly warmer conditions today, despite the chilly start to the day, as highs range from the middle 60s to lower 70s under mostly sunny skies.
502 PM EDT Thu Apr 5 2018 High pressure along with cooler and drier air will be over the region through Friday then move eastward as the next low pressure system approaches.
An incoming area of low pressure will bring a few showers to the Sierra Friday with dry and mild weather elsewhere.
/issued 531 AM CDT Thu Apr 5 2018/ A cold front extends from central Florida westward to the central gulf. As high pressure moves eastward by tonight a quick return flow will take place with temperatures and moisture creeping back up rapidly.
The high exiting stage right and a developing southerly flow will help keep tonight's low temperatures warmer than they were last night, mainly in the mid 40s. This next system's main low will also track south of the Tennessee Valley, keeping the area on the cooler, more stable side of the system.
The other piece of the puzzle will be a strong cold front moving in from the northeast during the morning hours. Scattered rain shower activity over the plains ahead of the front will quickly change over to snow as temperatures drop into the lower 30s before midday. East to northeast winds on the plains will be gusty for a few hours after the cold front passes. Meanwhile, in the mountains, orographic forcing with 25-30 knots of west/northwest flow, sufficiently deep moisture, and neutral lapse rates will keep snow going, and we should see another 1-4 inches and travel impacts for the high country.
258 PM MDT Thu Apr 5 2018 Upper level analysis has closed low and associated trof swinging through southern Manitoba, with ridging across the West Coast. At the surface, weak cold front has pushed through much of western SD with winds breezy out of the north. After midnight, snow will be heavy at times, especially across the warning areas, with up to 8 inches of snow possible, and locally higher amounts across the higher elevations of the Black Hills. Cold high pressure will settle into the northern plains Friday.
Eyes then turn to our north beginning late in the afternoon and early in the evening as increasing shower and thunderstorm coverage along and ahead of the next cold front increases and begins working its way to the east and southeast toward our area.
Main concern for the short term is the rapid freezing of roadways across the area late this afternoon into this evening that could make travel treacherous. ECMWF guidance has been consistent with holding highs in the teens tomorrow so there is potential for a bit colder than going forecast, but given the time of year leaned toward a bit warmer.
After a cold start this morning, we will warm up into the 60s and low 70s as high pressure sets up over the region and continues to provide sunshine to Central Alabama. As the high shifts further east tonight there is a small chance that some isolated showers may work into the far northwestern counties by daybreak on Friday.
Another concern will be the potential for show showers or even snow squall development in our north and northeast CWA this afternoon and evening as a separate trough swings around southern Manitoba within region of possible differential heating/lingering mid level lapse rates.
329 PM CDT Thu Apr 5 2018 For this evening, the models continue show that a short wave trough, currently over northern Minnesota, will move southeast through the area. The highest totals will be north of US Highway 10. On Friday, the models are in agreement that the upper level trough will move across the region. This will steepen the low level rates to around 8 C/km.
The other main difference tonight will be slightly warmer overnight lows with low temperatures in the upper 40s to mid 50s, near normal for this time of year.
Generally sided toward only extreme SE OK gaining full sfc based instability however the location of the advancing warm front will best be adjusted in near real time. Convection will eventually begin to spread southeastward as the mid level wave approaches and the associated strong sfc cold front accelerates southward. Sfc temps will cool quickly once the cold front passes and sub freezing temps are likely into NE OK by early Friday evening. Otherwise another hard freeze is expected and, given the high confidence in the cold air, headlines have been issued.
Webcams, surface obs, and radar showing snow showers along a cold front heading south from North Dakota into our cwa this morning. It will bring some breezy conditions to the region this afternoon, as high pressure builds in behind this feature. Strong high pressure will be centered over south central Canada Friday morning, with the leading edge of it nosing over the Northern and Central Plains. This precipitation will come to an end Friday morning as the high continues to work its way southward.
158 PM EDT Thu Apr 5 2018 High pressure moves east of area by Friday.
406 PM CDT Thu Apr 5 2018 Vigorous upper low dropping southeast into the Great Lakes will send a strong cold front southward spreading into the northeast part of our area Friday afternoon, if not even earlier.
VFR conditions will give way to MVFR conditions later tonight as showers and thunderstorms develop across the area in advance of a cold front that is expected to sweep through the region on Friday.
327 PM CDT Thu Apr 5 2018 Band of snow along a cold front will continue to move quickly and out of our southeast CWA by evening.
156 PM EDT Thu Apr 5 2018 High pressure will linger over the eastern Ohio Valley today.
Short term forecast highlights include patchy to areas of fog early this morning in the James River valley, light snow through the morning hours, and cooler temperatures with breezy conditions through the day.
The question still remains whether the cold front will provide enough lift to break this cap as it passes through the CWA. Now with the TTU-WRF and 48 hr hi-res suite in the domain of tomorrow night's cold front passage, it appears that the best chance for any development for South Central Texas will depend on how intense can get along the front in north Texas.
At KGUY, low clouds should begin to impact the airport around daybreak as a cold front moves through. eventually turning northeast behind the cold front tomorrow. These warm temperatures will be short lived as a cold front pushes into the area on Friday.
Light south-southwest winds are expected this morning ahead of an advancing cold front. Mid level clouds expand northeast this afternoon, however warm air advection should still bring warmer temperatures than we've seen recently. With really meager moisture in the low levels, conditions will be largely dry, however we could see a few flurries in south central this morning, and again near the Buffalo Ridge in the afternoon.
A strong Canadian cold front will push through the Panhandles on Friday. Am leaning toward the faster models, which means cooler highs for Friday. Some light freezing rain, sleet and snow will all be possible overnight Friday as the column slowly cools aloft.
140 PM EDT Thu Apr 5 2018 Cold high pressure will settle over NC today and tonight. The high will shift offshore Friday allowing a warmer SW flow to develop.
After relatively light winds (by West Texas standards in spring) through the TAF window, a strong cold front will move through the terminals late tomorrow afternoon or early evening with gusty northeasterly winds and the potential for blowing dust and post-frontal stratus. A sharp trough will rotate about the Hudson Bay low into the northern plains early Friday morning as high amplitude ridging persist along the West Coast.
Another impulse will move ovhd late tonight into Friday morning, resulting in the development of shwrs/tstms, becoming more widespread across our nrn half along a warm front during the day Friday. With regard to the severe threat, the possibility of sfc-based convection in the warm sector ahead of the cold front does exist, but is somewhat uncertain attm. In addition to the severe threat, some areas may see locally heavy rainfall, particularly areas of SW AR, where some training of storms could set up along the warm front.
300 PM EDT Thu Apr 5 2018 With resplendent sunshine and light northeast winds, temperatures are climbing into the lower 80s along most of the island chain. Surface wise, a Western Atlantic ridge is draped across the Gulf coast region.
With this moisture return, the chances for some storm development may be a little earlier, so have introduced POPs in the evening, although the highest chances will still be after midnight.
/issued 331 AM CDT Thu Apr 5 2018/ Freezing temperatures across portions of the region this hour. Thicker cloud cover will move into the Midsouth tonight with a few light showers erupting as a warm front starts to materialize in the Red River Valley and the ARKLATEX.
513 PM EDT Thu Apr 5 2018 High pressure will begin to build across the region from the south tonight. The high will move east Friday while an area of low pressure approaches from the west.
With high pressure well northeast of forecast area, southeasterly flow sets up with partly cloudy skies expected. Warmer temps are expected, with consensus guidance showing high temps mid-upr 70s east of I-95 corridor, around 80 further inland north of I-70 corridor, and mid 80s south of I-10 corridor.
These showers will continue to push east this afternoon, but unfortunately, the high-res guidance is not handling this band very well. High res guidance also brings some additional scattered precip developing behind the current band this evening, but given the performance of the high res guidance to this point, I have my doubts as to whether or not this additional precip will materialize. A second round of precipitation is possible as a cold front sweeps in from the NW.
Surface Canadian cold front currently along line from around KBTM to KLVM will continue to push southward spreading increasing moisture into southwest Montana this morning.
High pressure and mostly sunny skies will prevail today with a dry airmass in place. Afternoon high temperatures are expected to be mainly in the lower to middle 70s.
High pressure over the Kentucky and West Virginia border this afternoon will eventually shift east of the Appalachians tonight, in advance of a clipper system that will shift from Canada into the Great Lakes region tonight and tomorrow. As such, despite calm conditions lows should be notably warmer than last night. At lower elevations, areas along the Virginia and Tennessee border may still get close to the freezing mark tonight, but think the areal extent of such temperatures will be low enough to preclude any freeze-related headlines for tonight. A cold front associated with the aforementioned clipper system will be moving south tomorrow and should be situated from roughly Memphis up through Bowling Green by midday Friday.
Although high temperatures will get a few degrees above freezing today and Thursday at most places, and lows will not be quite as extreme as last night, have opted to extend the hard freeze warning, especially given the recent strain on life and property.
445 AM CST Wed Jan 3 2018 Early this morning water vapor imagery showed an upper trough swinging southeastward while surface analysis revealed an associated cold front sliding through the area. Remaining snow showers/flurries will continue to decrease as drier air/subsidence works in behind the departing upper wave and high pressure begins to sink south into the upper Midwest.
This makes sense because it is moving into a strong ridge. Freezing rain is possible Thursday, but amounts are likely to be very small if any actually does occur.
Another day of slightly elevated nrly flow, albeit lighter than the past few days, is expected again today with high pressure centered to our west. A deep upper trough remains in place over the east 2/3 of the country, and short wave that brought flurries to the area is departing to the east as it rounds the base of the larger trough. Regardless of how low the area will still see several hours at or below freezing.
552 AM EST Wed Jan 3 2018 A cold front trailing Great Lakes low pressure will bring increasing clouds and a chance of snow showers today. Arctic high pressure following the front will be accompanied by mainly dry weather and very cold temperatures tonight into the weekend.
As the low continues to move northward, it is anticipated winds will across our waters will again pick up to advisory criteria, likely by late morning.
A low pressure system will push into the Pacific Northwest tonight and Thursday bringing a chance of precipitation to the area.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 35 17 27 14 / 0 0 10 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 32 16 25 10 / 0 10 10 10 Oak Ridge, TN 34 16 25 10 / 0 10 10 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 29 12 21 7 / 0 10 10 10 NC.
314 AM MST Wed Jan 3 2018 The Western Ridge will continue to be effective at keeping precipitation pinned to the left coast or well to our north through this short term period. Probably the biggest change to forecast was the Gunnison Basin where highs may struggle to hit the freezing mark today.
High pressure to the southwest providing a westerly surface wind this morning. A cold front will move through the area throughout the day, bringing the winds out of the NW with some gusts at times. Throughout the day, with high pressure to the southwest, west winds will be seen with a good bit of sunshine across the state. Some warming will take place, likely ending the at/below freezing temperature streak ongoing in many areas. A dry cold front will make its way across the state from the north during the day. As high pressure builds in from the north tonight and winds die down, conditions will be favorable for temperatures in the teens statewide with some single digits possible across the north. Cold, dry air will continue to filter into the state on Thursday with high temps likely cooler than today.
402 AM MST Wed Jan 3 2018 Another very dry early winter day for north central and northeast Colorado on the northeast quad of a strong upper ridge to our west. the upper ridge backs away a bit allowing a stronger northwest flow aloft to funnel high clouds down from western wyoming overnight.
Conditions have been a little better from Vero Beach southward where temps are abit warmer and precip abit more patchy. The vigorous upper trough (showing up well in water vapor imagery) swinging through the SE CONUS will aid in the rapid development of the anticipated maritime low offshore the FL Atlantic coast now underway. The fast, developing low pressure will manifest a pressure gradient re-tightening quickly.
306 AM MST Wed Jan 3 2018 Imagery shows amplified ridge ovr the wrn CONUS with a dry embedded SW Trof moving swd through MT/WY into a large broad Trof across the rest of the ern CONUS.
SHORT TERM (Today through Thursday): Surface observations indicate that freezing temperatures are occurring across portions of the northern ranchlands. Clearing skies and lighter winds may allow temperatures to drop briefly below freezing across other areas of the CWA around sunrise. Clear skies and light winds will allow for good radiational cooling for tonight with the potential of another round of freezing to below freezing temperatures across deep south Texas.
Ridge axis of the arctic airmass draped across east central Dakotas will gradually slide east the rest of the day and overnight. Another upper level trough over the eastern Pacific will approach the area Sat and produce another round of light warm advection snow for much of the forecast area. Long wave ridge over western North America shifts into AK with troughs moving into the West Coast. Long wave trough over eastern North America weakens and expands into the northern Atlantic.
Winds decouple overnight as high pressure moves over SE Texas. Even the beaches will probably drop below freezing, and Galveston Island was already at 33 and falling at 3 AM.
Western Montana valleys will be most susceptible to the snow occurring due to the low stratus (moisture source) that has developed over the past several days. The weak storm system and snowfall will have a small moderating effect on area valley temperatures, however most locations will remain decidedly in freezing temperatures. Similar to the light snow event today, the Thursday late night feature has the potential to produce widespread very light precipitation, mostly in the form of snow and freezing rain.
911 AM EST Wed Jan 3 2018 Temperatures are at or just above freezing across northern Levy county and have received some reports of a glaze of ice on exposed objections in this area. Temperatures should climb above freezing during the next hour in this area bringing an end to any freezing precipitation.
305 AM MST Wed Jan 3 2018 An upper ridge will build across the western US and Canada the next few days which will bring warmer air into the region. Northeast Montana will remain in NW flow aloft to the east of the ridge axis.
/issued 408 AM CST Wed Jan 3 2018/ SHORT TERM (Today through Thursday): Surface observations indicate that freezing temperatures are occurring across portions of the northern ranchlands. Clearing skies and lighter winds may allow temperatures to drop briefly below freezing across other areas of the CWA around sunrise. Clear skies and light winds will allow for good radiational cooling for tonight with the potential of another round of freezing to below freezing temperatures across deep south Texas.
Although, temperatures will rise to freezing or just above for a couple of hours today across much of the area before dropping back below freezing behind a cold front. Arctic high pressure will gradually build back into the Mid-South.
Drier air and high pressure finally have moved into the region to clear things out after persistent cloud cover over the past several days. We will maintain the Hard Freeze Warning through 10 AM, after which time temperatures should rise above freezing. This should keep high temperatures a couple of degrees cooler in many areas Thursday than today.