Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1126 PM CST Mon Jan 4 2021 A cold front will push across our area this evening, moving out much of the fog that has recently plagued the region. High pressure will build into the Midwest behind the front. Weak band of light freezing sprinkles/snow has reached near I-55 this evening and should exit the eastern CWA before midnight.
Thus the high wind watch will continue. Another cold front/upper level disturbance move through the region on Thu.
1022 PM CST Mon Jan 4 2021 (This evening through Tuesday) Cold front was pushing south of I-10 this afternoon with north winds of 10 to 15 mph behind it.
Mostly clear skies are expected tonight into Tuesday as a weak ridge of high pressure works into the area. Some dense fog could certainly occur once again, but at this point there is enough variation in the guidance to not yet mention dense fog (but simply areas of fog/freezing fog). There could be some brief freezing drizzle or freezing rain that area as well late Tuesday night as the profile starts to dry out and heterogeneous nucleation becomes an issue. Light snow should be ongoing in western and southwestern MN north of the warm front due to meager 850 mb WAA facilitating just enough synoptic-scale lift.
Low temps will reach the lower to mid 40s across most of EC FL, except lower 50s along the immediate coast (beachside) south of the Cape and eastern Martin county.
248 AM CST Tue Jan 5 2021 Western CONUS upper trof will move eastward across the Rockies today, before emerging across the central/northern high Plains this evening. Stronger southerly low level flow will develop across the area, ahead of the deepening lee side surface trof and cold front.
/issued 240 PM CST Mon Jan 4 2021/ Dry weather continues this evening as ridging aloft gives way to a weak upper trough that moves through tonight. This will bring a weak surface cold front through the area, shifting winds to the northwest and lowering high temps into the lower to mid 60s for Tue.
with NW winds bringing in slightly cooler. some fog potential may remain near any warmer waters. with some NW winds bringing in slightly cooler. some fog potential may remain near any warmer waters.
Patchy freezing drizzle also possible at times where sfc temperatures have dipped below freezing.
939 PM CST Mon Jan 4 2021 (This evening through Tuesday) Patchy freezing fog may develop once again tonight as temperatures cool--especially given current dewpoints are above the forecast lows tonight.
/Issued 918 PM CST Mon Jan 4 2021/ High pressure centered over the region will move east overnight, resulting in a cool overnight with clear skies and light winds in place.
1000 PM MST Mon Jan 4 2021 Focus will be on the upper trough and cold front moving through the area on Tuesday. Impacts will be on the lower end from gusty winds and light snow.
With nearly ideal radiational cooling conditions for the rest of the night with clear skies, light winds, and some lingering low-level moisture from slightly above-freezing temperatures today, there is potential for dense fog to become a bit more widespread further west and north by sunrise, including areas as far west as Aitkin County and north into the Twin Ports and Iron Range. Summary: Decaying cold front was seen moving out of the region this afternoon taking with it a wintry mix of precipitation.
317 AM EST Tue Jan 5 2021 High impact weather potential: Slippery roads this morning with a combination of freezing drizzle and light snow. Plenty of lower level moisture associated with passing trough, kicking of stratus and drizzle/freezing drizzle. Rather convoluted mid level flow regime expected today into tonight as overall movement to the larger scale features begins to slow with development of eastern seaboard broad mid level low pressure. Primary forecast concerns/challenges: Addressing freezing drizzle and snow potential through tonight. Confidence is most definitely low in this scenario, but given recent trends, feel a mention of more drizzle/freezing drizzle is appropriate, especially across sections of northern lower Michigan.
918 PM CST Mon Jan 4 2021 High pressure centered over the region will move east overnight, resulting in a cool overnight with clear skies and light winds in place.
A weak cold front will move across the forecast area later tonight into Tuesday. Significantly cooler air behind the front is not expected, with temperature dropping to around seasonal norms tonight. Low temperatures ranging from the low 30s north of Highway 84 to around 40 along the coast expected.
High pressure will quickly move across the region from west to east today with northeasterly winds veering southeast during the afternoon as the center of the high shifts east of the region. Have not seen much in the way of a dew point drop yet, however, lower dew points and slightly cooler air is expected to push in later tonight. Behind the weak front, high pressure will quickly traverse the region Tuesday with northeasterly winds veering southeast during the afternoon as the high shifts east of the region. A ridge of high pressure is exiting to the east as a weak and dry cold front moves into East TX and NW LA. This front will move through the local area tonight with high pressure rebuilding from the north.
950 PM MST Mon Jan 4 2021 SCT cirrus is beginning to enter wrn portions of the area this aftn ahead of a compact trof axis near the Pac NW coast. Sfc pressure fall/rise couplet is rather impressive as this system takes shape, with broad areas of +/- 3-5 mb/3 hr on either side of the trof axis. Additionally, model consensus suggests developing low pressure in the lee of the Black Hills this evening thru tomorrow AM. Fairly robust trof reaches the area tomorrow.
No reports of freezing drizzle across the North Country so have removed mention of it with the precipitation type moving forward likely snow. Much of the 10-15 thousand foot level where ice nucleation can take place should be saturating with the high cloud layer advecting in from the east, creating a bit of a seeder-feeder mechanism for light snowfall. Temperatures will be seasonable, with highs in the lower to mid 30s and lows in the 20s.
Radar returns on the regional mosaic are very meager along the trough axis over Lake Michigan and do not expect much in the way of precipitation as the system weakens on its approach into southeast Michigan. With abundant moisture below the low level inversion, expect some increase in fog as this system works east into the area with perhaps a bit of very light patchy mist before the moisture depth increases enough to support snow flurries. As winds veer to the north/northeast over Lake Huron overnight in the wake of weak cold front, Hires models suggest some degree of lake effect/enhanced snow flurry activity over the Thumb region.
Some increase in mid and high clouds from the west will occur during the afternoon/evening ahead of a trough moving out of the Rockies. The highest chances look to be near/east of the MS River where higher cloud cover is likely to be thinner. Confidence remains low in how fog (including some freezing) will play out overnight.
If clouds hang around longer, we may only see the low to mid 40s.
Weak surface cold front will edge south towards airports late in the forecast. Otherwise dry and quiet weather with northwest flow aloft tonight backing to southwest flow Tuesday in advance of a fast moving upper trough now crossing the west coast. As the center of the high shifts to the east, winds will quickly return to a southerly component tonight. Although a slug of high- level subtropical moisture will get caught up in the southwesterly flow aloft and carry plenty of thin cirrus over the region during the day, temperatures will still rebound into the lower and middle 60s.
Patchy freezing drizzle also possible at times where sfc temperatures have dipped below freezing. Most roadway sensors are showing sfc temps just above freezing, however, bridges and overpasses could be problematic, especially if not treated. The freezing drizzle potential will decrease from sw to ne this morning as higher clouds transition over the region and provide ice nuclei. Lingering light snow will diminish over the course of the day Wednesday as ridging builds in and inversion heights lower.
As this precipitation field moves east, will have high cloud bases and dry air in the low and mid levels to compete with, with the KBIS 12 UTC RAOB showing a significant dry layer up to 550 mb, so will have to wait and see how much precipitation can make it to the ground in our forecast area.
With another strong warm nose ahead of the short wave a period of freezing rain or ice pellets will be possible before just snow developments this evening across SE ND, mainly for areas SW of Fargo, as the FM area appears most likely to miss out of this round of weather. Best chances for more an inch or more of snow appear to be set for areas from Cooperstown to Valley City to Gwinner and points west as the narrow axis of lift associated with some transient frontogenetical forcing develops this evening within the broad 500mb trough. Wednesday will see snow diminishing in the south with highs around 30 as there is no cold frontal passage with the system and winds will be light.
A ridge axis aloft is expected to move overhead today ahead of the next approaching trof. Tonight, the next trof aloft comes knocking on our door and brings a sfc cold front with it. The cold front along with the beginnings of some precip are expected to be on our western door step late this evening and into the early overnight hours.
Upper level trough extending west- northwest from offshore low pressure south of Yarmouth, NS continues to pull some mid-level moisture westward back into northern New England/nrn NY this morning and expect this trend to continue into tonight.
Some increase in mid and high clouds from the west will occur during the afternoon/evening ahead of a trough moving out of the Rockies. The highest chances look to be near/east of the MS River where higher cloud cover is likely to be thinner.
640 AM EST Tue Jan 5 2021 High impact weather potential: Slippery roads this morning with a combination of freezing drizzle and light snow. Plenty of lower level moisture associated with passing trough, kicking of stratus and drizzle/freezing drizzle. Rather convoluted mid level flow regime expected today into tonight as overall movement to the larger scale features begins to slow with development of eastern seaboard broad mid level low pressure. Primary forecast concerns/challenges: Addressing freezing drizzle and snow potential through tonight. Confidence is most definitely low in this scenario, but given recent trends, feel a mention of more drizzle/freezing drizzle is appropriate, especially across sections of northern lower Michigan.
Areas of light snow in southwest Montana and over the western mountains will taper off this morning as high pressure builds in from the west.
Surface temperatures around freezing this morning combined with a stout inversion and a saturated boundary layer has lead to some drizzle and freezing drizzle this morning. As a trough continues to press through the area today, the additional lift will be enough to break the inversion owing to more showery precip and upslope to boot. Lingering light snow will diminish over the course of the day Wednesday as ridging builds in and inversion heights lower.
From synopsis, high pressure will meander across the north- central Gulf this afternoon, supporting moderate northerly breezes over the coastal waters of the Florida Keys.
600 AM CST Tue Jan 5 2021 (Today and tonight) Early morning water vapor imagery shows zonal flow aloft across West Central texas with an upper level trough approaching the Four Corners Region. Lows will range from from the 30s across the far western counties to the lower 50s across the Hill Country.
456 AM CST Tue Jan 5 2021 Western CONUS upper trof will move eastward across the Rockies today, before emerging across the central/northern high Plains this evening. Stronger southerly low level flow will develop across the area, ahead of the deepening lee side surface trof and cold front. The mid and upper level trof is still expected to dig southeastward across Kansas on Wednesday with a closed tropospheric low forming across eastern Kansas.
Otherwise return flow starts tonight ahead of the next cold front that will bring another round of showers and thunderstorms to the area Wednesday into Wednesday night. In the wake of this system Drier and cooler weather can be expected through the end of the week and into the weekend. The ECMWF, CMC and GFS have all trended south with the low and the CMC and ECMWF are slower with the progress of the system than the GFS.
an upper level trough and associated cold front will move through area late this afternoon through tonight. High temperatures are expected to range from the low 50s along the KS/NE border to the low 60s south of the interstate. dry conditions are expected with an upper ridge moving in from the west. High temperatures are expected to be in the low to mid 40s with low temperatures in the mid teens to low 20s.
Aloft, weak ridging is in place over the Central Great Plains with a deepening over the Intermountain West and an exiting trough over the easter CONUS. This slight ridging over our area today will assist with warmer temperatures that will end up similarly to what they were yesterday, ranging from the low 40's to right around 50 in southeast Nebraska.
The ridge of high pressure is exiting NM early this morning with the next upstream short wave trough moving across the state today with increased winds but no precipitation. A ridge of high pressure will approach Wednesday resulting in less wind, but cooler temperatures behind the trough passage.
Models do seem to be overdoing the low-level moisture and fog has remained fairly shallow as much drier air can be found not far off the surface. Today looks to be the warmest day of the week with most areas seeing afternoon temperatures reach the mid to upper 40s, and possibly even the lower 50s. Our next chance for precipitation, and winter weather, will be tied to a trough coming out of the Pacific Northwest that will deepen as if takes a southward dive into the Plains on Wednesday.
1000 AM EST Tue Jan 5 2021 A trough will move east across the area on today, while another weak ridge of high pressure will arrive on Wednesday. High pressure will stay over the region through weekend with seasonable temperatures and quiet weather. These low clouds will tend to be warmer than -10C and thus too warm to support ice nucleation and snow production. Thus, the potential of drizzle or freezing drizzle the rest of today through Wednesday appears to be minimal, but will reevaluate once 12Z/Tue model sounding data become available. Afternoon highs should reach the lower to mid 30's.
Expect slight cooling and breezy afternoon winds today as a dry cold front crosses the region.
Highs will range from the middle 20s across central and northcentral Wisconsin to the low 30s near Lake Michigan.
Further west more energy was moving towards British Columbia with a closed upper low south of Alaska. At the surface, high pressure was centered over eastern OK with any meaningful moisture pooled along the gulf coast. Then for Wednesday and Wednesday night the models deepen a closed low over the ARLATX region with cyclogenesis over northern LA and southern AR. This leaves an inverted trough bisecting the forecast area through Wednesday night while a deformation axis persists overhead. So there will be some chances for precip in the form or rain and snow possible mixed in with some freezing rain at times as forecast soundings show modest vertical motion from time to time.
Most guidance builds upper level ridging over the southeast tonight into Wednesday. With more moist return flow remaining to the west of the Tennessee Valley area through Wednesday evening, the result will be warmer and dry conditions.
A Pacific cold front moved through the region last night, but temperatures will remain 5-10 degrees above average for this time of year today anyway. Today a ridge will build over the region, but it is a progressive ridge that is just here between cold fronts. Wednesday afternoon and evening another cold front will move across the northern Rockies.
939 AM EST Tue Jan 5 2021 Update/Aviation - Icy travel possible for the morning commute today - Risk for Freezing fog later tonight We dropped the Winter Weather Advisory going on 900am this morning. Temperatures are quite marginal for freezing drizzle (around 30F). - Risk for Freezing fog later tonight Bufkit overviews and High Res models show a low potential for thicker fog later tonight mainly for our southwest counties.
Patchy freezing drizzle also possible at times where sfc temperatures have dipped below freezing. Most roadway sensors are showing sfc temps just above freezing, however, bridges and overpasses could be problematic, especially if not treated. Lingering light snow will diminish over the course of the day Wednesday as ridging builds in and inversion heights lower.
924 AM EST Tue Jan 5 2021 Sunny and cool is the best way to describe the weather this morning as high pressure continues to ridge over Florida. The morning visible satellite imagery and surface observations are showing clear skies and temperatures in the low to mid 50's. High pressure ridging in from the northwest will produce northerly winds around 10-15 knots over the eastern gulf waters through the day. Winds will shift to the northeast by mid-week as the high pressure moves to the north.
A progressive, eastward moving trough will reach the Plains this morning, then stall over the eastern Dakotas tonight, before diving south toward the southern Plains and lower Mississippi Valley Wednesday. Easterly flow and upslope could enhance the precip chance on the Buffalo Ridge.
/issued 339 AM CST Tue Jan 5 2021/ SHORT TERM (Today through Wednesday): Areas of dense fog will continue across portions of the Rio Grande Valley and northern ranchlands this morning before a stationary frontal boundary across south Texas lifts northward as a warm front later today. The front will provide a focus for showers and isolated thunderstorms across the eastern portions of deep south Texas and the lower Texas coastal waters Wednesday.
Winds will then shift to the north behind a cold front early this evening. Winds will remain up around 20 knots with higher gusts behind the cold front. A cold front should move into the northwest part of the CWA by about 1 pm to 2 pm and then it should be about halfway through the CWA by about 7 pm to 8 pm and then it should be pushing out of the southeast part of the Texas Panhandle by Midnight. Winds should continue to be in the 20 to 30 mph range with higher gusts behind the cold front all the way through Wednesday afternoon.
435 AM CST Tue Jan 5 2021 High pressure will build in behind the weak cold front, resulting in a mostly sunny day across the region. Overnight the ridge axis slips to the east. and drier and cooler air work into the region. Overnight lows will drop below freezing again tonight in the northeast and east central MS.
SHORT TERM (Today through Wednesday): Areas of dense fog will continue across portions of the Rio Grande Valley and northern ranchlands this morning before a stationary frontal boundary across south Texas lifts northward as a warm front later today. The front will provide a focus for showers and isolated thunderstorms across the eastern portions of deep south Texas and the lower Texas coastal waters Wednesday.
300 AM MST Tue Jan 5 2021 Current surface analysis shows low pressure over southeast Alberta, with warm front extending southeast through eastern MT and into the Black Hills area. Pacific cold front extends south from the low across western MT into far western WY. A quick 1 to 3 inches of snow will likely fall over the northern Black Hills this afternoon, especially the higher elevations. The trough is expected to deepen as it shifts south and east of the region later tonight.
Patchy freezing drizzle also possible at times where sfc temperatures have dipped below freezing. Lingering light snow will diminish over the course of the day Wednesday as ridging builds in and inversion heights lower.
Fog and freezing fog will be possible again tonight into Wednesday morning. An elongated trough is currently moving through the region, preceded by areas of fog and freezing fog. However, with high pressure rapidly returning in the wake of the trough, a subsidence inversion will keep moisture trapped near the surface, and low clouds and mist will prevail through the day.
Tonight the flow will become northerly as the upstream ridge pushes eastward, while moisture advection around the upper level low to our east brings moisture back into the snow DGZ. The continued weak forcing today and tonight will yield snow fall around a dusting across lower elevations and perhaps a half to one inch across the higher terrain south of Lake Ontario. Model soundings showing it will be just cold enough to support snow showers/flurries, although can not completely rule out some freezing drizzle over higher terrain. Upper ridging starts to build in from the western Great Lakes and south-central Ontario Wednesday afternoon along with some drier air, trending the forecast toward diminishing precipitation chances.
/issued 302 AM CST Tue Jan 5 2021/ Ridge sits over us resulting in a nice day. While we have a nice day, over the Pacific Northwest a trough is beginning to build.
302 AM CST Tue Jan 5 2021 Ridge sits over us resulting in a nice day. While we have a nice day, over the Pacific Northwest a trough is beginning to build.
High pressure will build in behind the weak cold front, resulting in a mostly sunny day across the region. Overnight the ridge axis slips to the east. and drier and cooler air work into the region. Overnight lows will drop below freezing again tonight in the northeast and east central MS.
High pressure will follow for the mid week period, with another storm system possible heading into the upcoming weekend.
Tonight winds will switch from the southwest to the northwest as the trough moves through Nebraska and Kansas. The main energy with the trough and low will be more into Nebraska so if we do see any precipitation it will be mainly north of the I-70 corridor. Cooler temperatures on Wednesday as the upper level trough will move through the central plains. There could be some residual precipitation on the backside of the low mainly for areas around Hays although it looks like the better energy and moisture will be in eastern Kansas.
Winds will remain light and gradually veer to a more erly direction by 12z Wednesday as high pressure pushes ewd past the region. Otherwise return flow starts tonight ahead of the next cold front that will bring another round of showers and thunderstorms to the area Wednesday into Wednesday night. In the wake of this system Drier and cooler weather can be expected through the end of the week and into the weekend. The ECMWF, CMC and GFS have all trended south with the low and the CMC and ECMWF are slower with the progress of the system than the GFS.
349 AM MST Tue Jan 5 2021 Areas of light snow in southwest Montana and over the western mountains will taper off this morning as high pressure builds in from the west.
350 AM MST Tue Jan 5 2021 Current surface analysis shows low pressure over southeast Alberta, with warm front extending southeast through eastern MT and into the Black Hills area. Pacific cold front extends south from the low across western MT into far western WY. A quick 1 to 3 inches of snow will likely fall over the northern Black Hills this afternoon, especially the higher elevations. The trough is expected to deepen as it shifts south and east of the region later tonight.