Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
/Tonight through Tomorrow Night/ Our area continues to be stuck in between Hurricane Sally, which is currently along the Florida Panhandle/Alabama line, and a weak upper level trough. The upper level trough will slowly move closer to the region tonight. The trough axis will move into southwest Arkansas and northeast Texas on Thursday. Temperatures tonight will remain mild as lows will fall into the lower 70s across most of the area, with a few locations falling into the upper 60s. Near seasonable temperatures are expected on Thursday, with highs ranging from the lower 80s to lower 90s across the area, cooler across our northern zones and warmer to our southern zones. Thursday night is looking to be slightly cooler across the area, with lows falling in the mid to upper 60s.
232 PM CDT Wed Sep 16 2020 A cold front now over southern Iowa will drop through the area overnight. A broad area of high pressure initially building southward into the great Lakes and Upper Mississippi River valley with slowly move eastward towards New England by the weekend and remain there into nest week.
Temperatures are currently in the lower to middle 80s, on track to reach the lower 90s this aftn. Late this week, as the remaining circulation of Sally lifts to the east-northeast across the Southeastern US, broad 500 troughing will linger over Texas and into Louisiana.
245 PM MDT Wed Sep 16 2020 Weak high pressure continues this afternoon over the area after a cool front slide down the east side of the divide last night. Afternoon temperatures are cooler than yesterday to just above normal levels as 700mb temps dropped a few degrees. Morning low temperatures should be a bit warmer than Wednesday morning.
Diegan Chattanooga Airport, TN 67 77 65 79 60 / 70 80 50 40 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 65 75 63 76 57 / 40 60 50 40 10 Oak Ridge, TN 66 77 62 77 57 / 20 40 40 30 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 61 73 60 72 54 / 20 60 50 40 10 NC.
Overview: WNW-NW flow aloft will gradually strengthen over the Tri-State area late this week -- on the ENE-NE periphery of an upper level ridge over the 4-Corners, Desert Southwest, and central/southern Rockies. Expect dry conditions and continued clear/mostly clear skies with afternoon highs in the lower to mid 80s and overnight lows in the lower 50s. Thu-Fri night: Low-level southerly flow will prevail over the Tri- State area Thu-Fri -- on the eastern periphery of a thermal trough in the lee of the Rockies.
The warmest temperatures in the Midsouth have been in Northeast Arkansas and the Missouri Bootheel where we have seen readings in the low to mid 80s. Showers should decrease in coverage overnight but may expand/redevelop again tomorrow for one last shot at rain before we shift into a drier and cooler pattern. A cold front will approach northern portions of the Midsouth tomorrow afternoon.
1210 PM CDT Wed Sep 16 2020 Moisture starved cold front continues to dive SE across our area, causing winds to veer northerly in its wake. As such, expect to see noticeably cooler temperatures today, as breezy northerly flow enhances CAA across our area. Otherwise, expect breezy conditions to diminish by sunset, with lows forecast to fall into the low to mid 40s. Cooler temperatures look to prevail into the end of the week, as highs only rise into the mid 60s to 70s, with lows falling into the upper 40s to lower 50s.
Temperatures this afternoon will be a touch above seasonal averages, with highs topping out in the lower to middle 80s. A cold front will move through the forecast area late this afternoon into the mid-evening hours - slightly quicker arrival/passage than earlier anticipated. This front will be the initial catalyst to advect drier and cooler air into the area Thursday, with a reinforcing shot as high pressure to the north builds into the area.
Cold front, currently moving into far northeast Kansas will push into northeast Oklahoma/northwest Arkansas late tonight.
Synoptically, psuedo-zonal flow remains in control across the region while a weak 500mb ridge continues to nudge off the central Plains.
254 PM EDT Wed Sep 16 2020 A cold front will pass through the area tonight, bringing an increase in clouds and maybe a shower or sprinkle to the area.
1049 AM CDT Wed Sep 16 2020 Satellite imagery shows the lingering mid level trough axis has migrated back into the coastal counties this morning.
246 PM CDT Wed Sep 16 2020 An upper level low pressure is over West Texas and southeast New Mexico with northwest flow aloft. Showers and isolated thunderstorms are possible and is already occurring across mostly the mountainous areas this afternoon as moisture gets lifted along the higher terrain. Temperatures today are expected to be a little warmer than yesterday with highs mostly in the 80s. A cold front is expected to move into the area tonight into Thursday morning. High temperatures on Thursday will be below normal with highs in the lower to mid 80s across the Permian Basin. The upper ridge over the western U.
Region will be between high pressure to the east northeast and tropical storm Sally to the west northwest through Tonight. This low will track northeast across central GA, and into SC during the day Thursday. The associated cold front will move into SE GA Thursday afternoon. As the low moves further to the northeast Thursday night the cold front will move southeast into NE FL.
There may be enough lift associated with an upper-level trough moving overhead tomorrow to initiate a few showers or an isolated storm as well, but instability may be hard to come by with drier surface air working in from the north and poor mid-level lapse rates. /NF/ Showers will be tapering off Thursday night as a dry cold front approaches the region from the north.
1237 PM MDT Wed Sep 16 2020 An upper ridge over the western CONUS will slowly shift eastward over the next few days as an upper trough/low moves into the Pacific Northwest.
1258 PM CDT Wed Sep 16 2020 (Today and tonight) A shift in the high pressure ridge will result in a more active weather pattern for this afternoon.
Temperatures are currently in the lower to middle 80s, on track to reach the lower 90s this aftn.
There will also be a slight chance of a few spotty light rain showers or sprinkles this evening into early overnight as a cold front works its way southeastward across central Illinois. Expect highs in the lower 80s this afternoon, followed by cooler highs Thursday ranging from low to mid 70s north of I-70 to near 80 south of I-70. Meanwhile a cold front was over moving se into southeast sections of WI and IA late this morning. Under the ridge axis, some fog is noted early this morning around the I-70 corridor in southeast IL. The cold front will slowly approach during the day, reaching Galesburg around sunset and pushing south of Flora to Lawrenceville around sunrise Thursday. Highs today expected to be slightly above normal, in the low 80s, and lows tonight mid 50s to around 60.
1139 AM MDT Wed Sep 16 2020 Upper level ridge retrograded into the Intermountain West as a upper trough dug south into the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes from southern Canada. Smoke/haze from the West Coast wildfires topped the ridge and spread southeast into the region. 2 AM temperatures ranged from the lower 40s to lower 60s. While the higher smoke concentrations will be aloft, daytime mixing will pull some of the smoke to the surface with visibilities lowering to 5SM at times. It will be at least 10 degrees cooler across the plains where 700mb temperatures will lower to 8 to 10C, while warm temperatures prevail to the west.
Ongoing quiet pattern will persist during the period as weak ridging aloft across the Great Basin finally begins to edge eastward into the Western High Plains. Look for highs only up into the lower/mid 80s(F) Thursday as a southeast upslope flow develops in the afternoon.
131 PM EDT Wed Sep 16 2020 Mainly dry weather will continue under high pressure. A cold front will cross on Thursday, providing a cooler air mass that will remain in place through the weekend. With a lack of moisture and with the best upper support remaining off to the north, only isolated showers are foreseen at most, mainly north of US-422 (best of the weak upper jet support) and along the ridges (due to frontal timing and slight moisture increase from Sally remnants). A shower or two may linger into Thursday evening along the ridges.
213 PM CDT Wed Sep 16 2020 Another fairly quiet day across the region, with early afternoon analysis showing a cold front stretching from southeast Wisconsin to Kansas. As the cold front advanced southeastward, smoke was gradually clearing out behind it. Expect clear skies tonight as high pressure builds in behind the front. For Thursday, high pressure will continue building in and lead to a very quiet, but cooler day, with highs in the 50s and 60s.
1112 AM MDT Wed Sep 16 2020 Have updated the forecast to account for the earlier arrival of the northeast winds and the higher gusts which were not represented in earlier forecasts. Overview: WNW-NW flow aloft will gradually strengthen over the Tri-State area late this week -- on the ENE-NE periphery of an upper level ridge over the 4-Corners, Desert Southwest, and central/southern Rockies. Expect dry conditions and continued clear/mostly clear skies with afternoon highs in the lower to mid 80s and overnight lows in the lower 50s. Thu-Fri night: Low-level southerly flow will prevail over the Tri- State area Thu-Fri -- on the eastern periphery of a thermal trough in the lee of the Rockies.
209 PM EDT Wed Sep 16 2020 So far a mostly cloudy, and some smoke, day across Upper Michigan behind a cold front that passed through this morning. Heading into tonight, high pressure will continue to funnel in from the Canadian Prairies, leading to clearing skies and winds becoming lighter. Will stick with the frost advisory as temperatures will fall into the low 30s regardless. Either way, lows in the low 30 to mid 30s interior and near 40 along Lake Superior. Tomorrow, high pressure continues to build over the Upper Great Lakes region, leading to lighter winds and no precipitation chances. Otherwise clear skies and temps generally in the low to mid 50s.
Winds will be more northerly during the day tomorrow, and with the increased cloud cover through the first half of the day, expect temps to a be a few degrees cooler than that of today. The beginning of the forecast period will see the exit of the remnants of Sally as it gets picked up by an upper level trough and pushed out to the north and east.
Tomorrow will be slightly cooler as 1000-500 mb thicknesses fall a few decameters over the area.
A high pressure system will move into northern Wyoming tomorrow morning which will bring drier conditions to our mid levels.
Impacts for tonight are temperatures and will re-examine that in a bit, but high pressure location good for sub freezing temps in NW MN where freeze warnings in place. HRRR vertically integrated smoke takes the highest density plume to the south of us, so we will get more solar today. Temps in northwestern MN will get down to freezing and slightly below, with mid to upper 30s elsewhere.
253 PM MDT Wed Sep 16 2020 Strong high pressure aloft will keep the region dry thru the short term period. Significant smoke cover aloft along with the upslope winds are keeping temps cooler than expected today. The exception being the high terrain which will be better mixed, drier and warmer.
An approaching mid to upper level trough from the northwest will interact with deep moisture over south Texas to produce scattered convection again on Thursday. /Issued 1049 AM CDT Wed Sep 16 2020/ Satellite imagery shows the lingering mid level trough axis has migrated back into the coastal counties this morning.
Tonight and Thursday Cooler air was streaming into Wisconsin this afternoon behind the cold front that moved through this morning. Clearing skies tonight and diminishing winds should allow temperatures to fall into the 30s in northern Wisconsin and the low to mid 40s elsewhere. Cooler air flowing across the relatively mild waters of Lake Michigan and Green Bay could produce lake effect clouds in the lakeshore counties and the Fox Valley Thursday morning. Thursday Night Through Wednesday Northwest flow at 500mb will continue into the weekend, bringing cooler than normal conditions.
126 PM EDT Wed Sep 16 2020 WV imagery and RAP analysis indicated a mid/upper level low near the west end of Hudson Bay with troughing extending through Manitoba and northern Ontario into the northern Great Lakes. At the surface, a cold front was dropping through northern Upper Michigan. CAA with northwest low level flow will increase as high pressure from Saskatchewan and the northern Plains builds toward the region. The influx of cooler air along with continued dimming from smoke will limit highs to the lower 60s west to the mid to upper 60s south and east. With temps toward the lower end of guidance, expect area/widespread frost over most inland locations in Upper Michigan as min readings range from 30 to 35.
Latest surface analysis shows high pressure over southeast Saskatchewan int western ND. Lows tonight in the mid 30s to mid 40s and highs Thursday in the lower 60s east to lower 70s west.
Flat upper level ridge is located across the northern Rockies.
Dew pts upstream are in the 20s in Manitoba with clear sky, light winds conditions are set for a good radiational cooling night, cooler than what most guidance would suggest. Upper ridge building from the Northern Rockies and High Plains during Sat will offer dry weather and a boost in temp of several degrees. On Sun the ridge will be overhead with southerly sfc flow building more of a breeze and temps challenging the 80 degree mark over some areas to the south. Timing on RW/isoTSRA could be a little later in the day as trailing cold front may be slow moving into central, then eastern ND.
Fog has crept up onto a few of the ridges this morning, but it is still expected to dissipate quickly this morning. Given these trends, have removed pops for most of the area through Thursday as the ridging should stay in place on the northwest side of this system. The beginning of the forecast period will see the exit of the remnants of Sally as it gets picked up by an upper level trough and pushed out to the north and east.
Northeast winds will remain steady at 10-15 mph, with a few gusts in the higher terrain of 20-25mph. The cold front now over the upper Midwest will be sliding into the middle TN and northwest AL by early evening, and through the rest of the area during the evening hours.
(This evening through Thursday) Weak upper low/shear axis will continue to slowly move across the region tonight into Thursday.
and Thursday A cold front was edging south through northwest and north central WI early this morning, accompanied by mostly cloudy skies and patchy fog. wildfires may briefly surface behind the cold front as it moves through later this morning and afternoon. Temperatures will be mild over most of the forecast area today, with highs in the lower to middle 60s far northwest, and upper 60s to middle 70s elsewhere. Canadian high pressure will settle over the region tonight into Thursday, accompanied by much cooler temperatures.
Temperatures over the last few days have been cooler than expected, thus nudged the temperatures down a couple degrees. Roxy Previous Discussion: Synoptic Setup: Forecast begins with a trough of cold air moving through central Canada and a large area of hot high pressure over the western third of the CONUS. northeast Montana is capture in between these features under northwest flow aloft with cooler air moving in form the north at the surface. Farther west a large low pressure system sets of the coast of the Pacific Northwest.
1242 PM CDT Wed Sep 16 2020 A cold front stretches from southwest Minnesota to the Upper Peninsula early this morning. Ongoing CAA will usher in a cleaner Canadian airmass this evening, clearing out all lingering smoke within the column as high pressure builds into the region. Canadian high pressure continues to settle into the area on Thursday with largely clear skies. Looks like an even more favorable setup for greater frost extent Thursday night across north-central Wisconsin southward to I-94 corridor where temps are forecast to drop into the low/mid 30s, so would anticipate another forthcoming advisory.
Early afternoon Thursday, some isolated showers will be possible over northern AR ahead of an approaching cold front. While Arkansas is not likely to see appreciable effects from Sally, scattered showers/storms are possible today and tonight and maybe Thursday, as daytime heating interacts with the weak surface boundaries and upper troughing to the northwest of Sally. On Thursday, frontal boundary currently in the Northern Plains will gain momentum toward Arkansas as upper ridging anchored over the western conus contracts westward, and troughing emanating from a low over Hudson Bay shifts down into the central Plains.
950 AM MDT Wed Sep 16 2020 Have updated the forecast to account for the earlier arrival of the northeast winds and the higher gusts which were not represented in earlier forecasts. Overview: WNW-NW flow aloft will gradually strengthen over the Tri-State area late this week -- on the ENE-NE periphery of an upper level ridge over the 4-Corners, Desert Southwest, and central/southern Rockies. Expect dry conditions and continued clear/mostly clear skies with afternoon highs in the lower to mid 80s and overnight lows in the lower 50s. Thu-Fri night: Low-level southerly flow will prevail over the Tri- State area Thu-Fri -- on the eastern periphery of a thermal trough in the lee of the Rockies.
/issued 246 PM CDT Wed Sep 16 2020/ An upper level low pressure is over West Texas and southeast New Mexico with northwest flow aloft. Showers and isolated thunderstorms are possible and is already occurring across mostly the mountainous areas this afternoon as moisture gets lifted along the higher terrain. Temperatures today are expected to be a little warmer than yesterday with highs mostly in the 80s. A cold front is expected to move into the area tonight into Thursday morning. High temperatures on Thursday will be below normal with highs in the lower to mid 80s across the Permian Basin. The upper ridge over the western U.
322 PM MDT Wed Sep 16 2020 A ridge over the Intermountain west will contribute to upper northwestly flow over Northeastern Montana and a relatively steady weather pattern through the week.
532 PM MDT Wed Sep 16 2020 Looking at satellite today it appears to be opposite day as ridgetop clouds were moving off the ridgetops back to the West. The H500 hand analysis pattern showed the northeast winds aloft were in place due to high pressure over the northern Great Basin being undercut by low pressure over the Southern High Plains. The high to our West will be translating over the CWA overnight and bring back the upper Westerlies. Dry conditions continue with this ridge fully in control and temperatures will remain 5 to 10 degrees above mid September norms.
634 PM CDT Wed Sep 16 2020 There will be a slight chance of light rain showers or sprinkles this evening into early overnight as a cold front works its way southeastward across central Illinois.
97 A ridge over the Intermountain west will contribute to upper northwesterly flow over Northeastern Montana and a relatively steady weather pattern through the week.
919 PM EDT Wed Sep 16 2020 Slightly warmer temperatures will persist into the overnight before a cold front from the north starts to move through the region Thursday morning. Cooler and drier air gradually move in after the frontal passage.
A front will move through the area on Thursday as a trough moves east to the Mid-Atlantic.
438 PM MDT Wed Sep 16 2020 Weak high pressure continues this afternoon over the area after a cool front slide down the east side of the divide last night. Afternoon temperatures are cooler than yesterday to just above normal levels as 700mb temps dropped a few degrees. Morning low temperatures should be a bit warmer than Wednesday morning.
Otherwise under generally cloudy skies, mid evening temperatures ranged mostly in the lower 70s, with light NE winds. That said, locations east of a line from Cullman to Scottsboro could receive the higher amounts, ranging in the 1/4 to 1/2 of an inch by daybreak Thursday. Light NE winds overnight, should increase into the 10-20 mph range during Thu, with some higher gusts, especially in the higher terrain. The cold front now over the upper Midwest will be sliding into the middle TN and northwest AL by early evening, and through the rest of the area during the evening hours.
617 PM CDT Wed Sep 16 2020 Quiet weather continues with prior frontal passage bringing cooler air to the region in its wake.
732 PM EDT Wed Sep 16 2020 Slightly warmer temperatures will persist into the overnight before a cold front from the north starts to move through the region Thursday morning. Cooler and drier air gradually move in after the frontal passage.
Nearly zonal ridging is also in place aloft across the region. Short Term Update - Ridging will continue to dominate the Keys through the overnight period. Satellite imagery suggests there is some drier air just nosing into our area and forecast soundings indicate the lower level inhibition zone will strengthen a little overnight with some warmer and drier air moving in. Expect temperatures to bottom out in the lower 80s with dew points in the upper 70s. A ridge extending southwestward across Keys waters will maintain light to gentle southeast breezes.
635 PM CDT Wed Sep 16 2020 Another fairly quiet day across the region, with early afternoon analysis showing a cold front stretching from southeast Wisconsin to Kansas. As the cold front advanced southeastward, smoke was gradually clearing out behind it. Expect clear skies tonight as high pressure builds in behind the front. For Thursday, high pressure will continue building in and lead to a very quiet, but cooler day, with highs in the 50s and 60s.
Overnight lows look to be a few degrees cooler compared to last night across the forecast region, mainly 40-50 degrees, with the warmest overnight lows occurring over the western Nebraska Panhandle and in lower elevations along the North Platte River Valley. Expect dry conditions to continue overnight also as the upper level ridge axis slowly propagates towards the area overnight and into Thursday. A high pressure system will move into northern Wyoming tomorrow morning which will bring drier conditions to our mid levels.
There may be enough lift associated with an upper- level trough moving overhead tomorrow to initiate a few showers or an isolated storm as well, but instability may be hard to come by with drier surface air working in from the north and poor mid- level lapse rates. /NF/ Showers will be tapering off Thursday night as a dry cold front approaches the region from the north.
Weak mid level trough continues slowly moving across western/central Texas this evening. A weak front across KS will bridge south into ern OK and nwrn AR late tonight through Thursday, maintaining a north to northeast low level flow of 5 to 15 mph. Cold front, currently moving into far northeast Kansas will push into northeast Oklahoma/northwest Arkansas late tonight.
Cold front is bisecting Northern Lower Michigan attm. Temps have held nearly steady in the lower 60s across Eastern Upper Michigan behind this front. Cold front and resulting narrow line of light rain will make steady progress thru the rest of our CWA late this afternoon. Much cooler and drier air will drop into our region in the wake of the cold front. Low clouds associated with the cold front will eventually clear out of our area later this evening. Maintenance of a tighter pressure gradient east of the high center should preclude widespread frost development late tonight despite low temps dropping into the mid to upper 30s across most of our CWA.
A weak front across KS will bridge south into ern OK and nwrn AR late tonight through Thursday, maintaining a north to northeast low level flow of 5 to 15 mph. Cold front, currently moving into far northeast Kansas will push into northeast Oklahoma/northwest Arkansas late tonight.