Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1205 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015 CENTRAL/SERN IA ADVISORY HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE WITH NOTABLE DECREASE IN RADAR DRIZZLE SIGNAL AND TEMPS WARMING JUST ABOVE FREEZING. AS UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS CANADA PUSHES EAST DROPPING FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO IOWA. WITH ONGOING FREEZING RAIN AND MIXED PRECIPITATION ACROSS SOUTHERN CWA.
At the same time a cold front will also steadily progress southeast across the county warning area through the day. This will produce morning highs in the lower 40s in the north central with midday highs across the remainder of the CWA except the far southeast corner. Will therefore go with a low end chance pop late tonight for light snow in the far north central and far southern counties and only a slight chance for light snow elsewhere as drier air in the low levels will be advecting in from the northeast. With the surface front expected to move through the area today, one would think there is plenty of time for the low level dry air to advect in.
BREEZY WINDS AND MUCH COLDER AIR ARE MOVING IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WHICH IS NEARLY OUT OF THE CWA AS OF 3PM. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AS COLD AIR MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.
Clear skies and warmer temperatures are in store for NorCal today. Low pressure area is centered off the coast of Southern California this morning.
SNOW FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. AREAS OF HEAVIER SNOW ON THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE PALMER DVD AND RATON MESA REGIONS. LATEST MODEL RUNS INDICATE A SLIGHTLY SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER TROUGH.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS NRN BAJA WILL PHASE WITH A TROUGH AXIS WHICH SWINGS AROUND HUDSON BAY LOW INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. A SHARP COLD FRONT WILL DRIVE ITS WAY SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE AREA WITH A BITTERLY COLD BUT INITIALLY SHALLOW AIRMASS. WE WILL SEE A TRANSITION FROM LIGHT DRIZZLE TO FREEZING RAIN TO SLEET TO SNOW BY MID AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES COOL SUFFICIENTLY TO SUPPORT FREEZING PRECIP. GIVEN THE HIGH IMPACT OF ICY/SNOWY COMBINATIONS AS CORRELATED TO MOTOR VEHICLE ACCIDENTS. WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL OF NEAR ONE INCH ALONG WITH SOME INITIAL ICE ACCUMULATION IN THE WAY OF FREEZING RAIN AND OR SLEET IS THE PRIMARY CONCERN.
BUT WILL BE HELD ONTO FOR COVERING THE FREEZING DRIZZLE THIS MORNING. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP RIGHT OVER THE FORECAST AREA AS A TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES ON THE 270-310K SURFACES. AS THE LOW MOVES EAST WE START TO LOSE ICE ALOFT OVER THESE AREAS SO WE COULD EVEN SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING DRIZZLE. A STRONG COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS IS WHEN WE WILL LIKELY SEE MORE IMPACTS TO TRAVEL.
249 PM MST TUE MAR 3 2015 UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN IDAHO AND WESTERN WYOMING WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE TONIGHT. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. COLD FRONT AND UPSLOPE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL HELP PRODUCE SNOW THIS EVENING. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MAKES ITS WAY SE OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY EVENING.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TODAY AND KICK OFF A PERIOD OF CLEAR WEATHER WITH A WARMING TREND THAT WILL LAST INTO THE WEEKEND. DECENT COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL LIMIT THE ADIABATIC WARMING TO THE LEE OF THE MTNS BUT LOWER ELEVATIONS SHOULD STILL CLIMB TO THE LOWER 70S IN MOST AREAS. ALL FORECAST SOME DEGREE OF RIDGING.
OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE AREAS WEATHER WITH DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WORK WEEK AND THE PRESENT SHORT TERM FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK FOR NOW.
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. SLIGHTLY COOLER ALONG THE NW BORDER. THIS SCENARIO WILL RESULT IN A CHANGE OVER OF RAIN TO FREEZING RAIN. HARDEST HIT AREAS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGHER QPFS.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE AREAS WEATHER WITH DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THIS WEEK AND MAINTAIN A DRY WEATHER PATTERN.
AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. EXPECT MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE 60S AND 70S. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING ALLOWING FOR A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BEHIND THE FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR A TEMPERATURES TO FALL RAPIDLY ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECTING MUCH OF THIS PRECIPITATION TO TRANSITION TO A WINTRY MIX OF FREEZING RAIN.
TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT MERGING UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS AND ASSOCIATED REFLECTED FGEN RESPONSE CONTINUING TO TRAVERSE THE REGION THIS MORNING. SIG BL DRYING WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. MAIN NORTHERN STEAM TROUGH AXIS WILL TRAVERSE THE REGION TONIGHT.
THE 16Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED THAT THE WARM FRONT WAS STILL SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AND WAS EXTENDING WEST TO EAST ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA. TO THE LOW TO MID 50S IN NORTHERN ALABAMA. EXPECT THAT THE WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHWARD INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON AND TOWARD 00Z. WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NWD LATE THIS MORNING.
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN. FREEZING FOG AND FREEZING DRIZZLE SHOULD CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC FRONT. A CHECK ON THE HIGHWAY CAMS INDICATES THE ROAD SURFACES HAVE NOT YET CROSSED THE FREEZING MARK AND ONLY THE CHAPPELL CAMERA APPEARED TO BE COLLECTING ICE ON THE LENS. WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY FOR SIGNS OF ICING WHICH WOULD WARRANT A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY THIS MORNING AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC FRONT. THE WARMER READINGS ACROSS THE SOUTH ARE THE RESULT OF CLOUD COVER AND LINGERING SNOW ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH.
LEADING EDGE OF INBOUND COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDING ACROSS ERN ND. MAIN CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE WHERE/WHEN PCPN TYPE CHANGE WILL OCCUR AS THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS INTO THE CWA THIS MORNING. INITIAL PCPN ACTIVITY SHOULD BE BE IN THE FORM OF DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE OVER THE SRN CWA UNTIL INFLUX OF BNDRY LYR MOISTURE MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTH TO SATURATE THE COLUMN OUT FOR RA OR FZRA TO COMMENCE. GFSLAMP/HRRR PUT THE COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE CWA SOMETIME BTWN 13Z-14Z THIS MORNING.
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME STRONG AND GUSTY AFTER PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT THIS EVENING. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FSM AND MLC WHICH SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY. BIG WEATHER CHANGES IN STORE FOR TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH. BUT EXPECT A TRANSITION TO FREEZING RAIN AND EVENTUALLY SLEET AND SNOW FOR NE OK AND NW AR LATER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. AND SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WITH AMOUNTS BEING HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HOW QUICKLY THE SUB-FREEZING LOW-LEVEL AIR ARRIVES. MOST OF ERN OK WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR ACCUMULATING FREEZING RAIN/SLEET/SNOW.
THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE AROUND SUNRISE. SO LOOKING AT A LITTLE MIX OF SLEET WITH SOME LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE TOWARD MORNING. MIXING SHOULD ALLOW FOR GUSTY WINDS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND DOWNSLOPING INTO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WILL RESULT IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S.
HAVE A 2-4" BAND OF SNOW ROUGHLY ALONG THE HIGHWAY 56 CORRIDOR AS WELL AS A 50 MILE BUFFER ZONE SURROUNDING IT. HAVE THE LOWEST CONFIDENCE FARTHER NORTH TOWARDS HAYS. ANY LINGERING LIGHT PRECIPITATION NEAR THE OKLAHOMA BORDER WILL END DURING THE EVENING AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES WESTERN KANSAS. SUBSIDENCE DEVELOPING BEHIND THIS UPPER TROUGH SHOULD BRING SOME CLEARING SKIES DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
MINOR SNOWFALL EVENT FOR PARTS OF THE AREA TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY ONE FINAL DAY OF ARCTIC COLD AND THEN WARMTH RETURNS FOR SEVERAL ALOFT: A LONGWAVE TROF EXTENDED FROM THE NRN ROCKIES SSW TO A CLOSED LOW MOVING INTO BAJA CA. THIS TROF WILL GRADUALLY PROGRESS E AND WILL MOVE INTO THE FCST AREA BY SUNSET TOMORROW. THIS TROF WILL MOVE INTO THE FCST AREA TONIGHT AND WEAKEN IN THE CONFLUENT FLOW. SURFACE: AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT HAS SURGED ACROSS THE FCST AREA TODAY.
339 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL SWING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA TONIGHT TRYING TO PUSH A WARM FRONT NORTH ACROSS THE REGION. AS THE LOW SHIFTS TO OUR NORTH. IT WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY.
THE HRRR IS PAINTING SOME VERY LIGHT QPF OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
EXPECT THE LOWER CONDITIONS TO CLEAR LATER THIS MORNING. CURRENTLY A LONG WAVE RIDGE REMAINS OFFSHORE ALONG 14OW WITH DRY NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE RIDGE WILL MOVE SLOWLY WEST THROUGH WEDNESDAY WHILE SLOWLY WEAKENING. THIS MAY ALLOW SOME HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE TO MOVE OVER THE RIDGE.
HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL BEGIN TO BRING COLDER AIR INTO THE AREA TONIGHT. WITH THE HIGH SETTLING IN OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY.
1224 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015 AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TODAY AND A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL THEN STALL SOUTH OF THE AREA AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS ALONG IT FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
1152 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SOUTH OF THE AREA TODAY. A FAST MOVING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT.
335 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015 VISIBILITIES HAVE IMPROVED ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON AS THE WARM FRONT HAS LIFTED NORTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION. EXPECT A WARM START TO THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS ONLY IN THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE REGION. A WARM AND WET DAY IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF WEDNESDAY WEDNESDAY WITH WIDESPREAD LIGHT SHOWERS EXPECTED AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE LOW TO MID 70S BEFORE THE FRONT ARRIVES IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT TEMPERATURES WILL COOL ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A MIX OF RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN.
1035 AM MST TUE MAR 3 2015 COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION TODAY BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT TONIGHT. RAIN SHOULD BEGIN CHANGING OVER TO FREEZING RAIN.
THE FREEZING LINE IS EXPECTED TO EDGE SLOWLY SE LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. BRIEFLY TO FREEZING RAIN. WILL PROBABLY REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHIFTING WINDS. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO NW PARTS OF THE FA THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SOUTHEAST PARTS OF THE FA WHERE WOULD LIKELY RECEIVE THE HEAVIEST FREEZING RAIN. IF SFC TEMPS DROP BELOW FREEZING SOONER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST HIGHER ICE ACCUMULATIONS COULD BE POSSIBLE.
819 AM EST MON FEB 9 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH TODAY AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFF THE COAST.
A SURFACE COLD FRONT WAS DIVING SOUTHWARD OVER NORTHERN GA/AL THIS MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. AS THE DAY PROGRESSES THE WEAK SHORT WAVE MID LEVEL TROUGH DRIVING THE GOMEX LOW EASTWARD WILL PHASE WITH THE MUCH STRONGER LONG WAVE TROUGH DIVING SOUTHWARD OVER AL/GA. THEN A FEW POCKETS OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THIS AFTN WITH A FEW ISOLATED TSTORMS POSSIBLE AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ENERGY APPROACHES. 500 MB TEMPS OF -17 TO -19 DEG WILL BE EDGING IN ASSOCIATED WITH THE LONG WAVE MID LEVEL TROUGH PROVIDING FOR ELEVATED INSTABILITY.
The other area of rain was along the synoptic surface cold front, just to the northwest of our area. This activity along the cold front has been a little more vigorous than models had been forecasting during the morning hours.
HOWEVER THE LOWER VISBILITIES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE FURTHER SOUTH AND SPREAD ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE MID MORNING BECOMING VFR THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD AS A WEAK TROUGH BOUNDARY MOVES FURTHER EAST AND SOUTH. THE PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED TROUGH AXIS CONTINUES TO BISECT THE REGION ROUGHLY FROM BEEVILLE TO ALICE. THE SLIGHTLY INCREASED WINDS BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD IMPROVE VISIBILITIES AS THE TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD EARLY THIS MORNING. A WEAK NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO TO REGION BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. THE AIRMASS SHOULD BE ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLER. WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES FOLLOWING SUIT BEING ONLY A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY STILL RANGING IN THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 DEGREES. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE IN STORE FOR TONIGHT WITH THE DRIER AIRMASS.
352 AM PST MON FEB 9 2015 A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE WEST COAST WILL MOVE EAST TODAY INTO THE GREAT BASIN. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP OVER THE EAST PACIFIC AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO THE LARGE EAST PAC TROUGH THAT'S BROUGHT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO MUCH OF CENTRAL AND ESPECIALLY NORTHERN CALIFORNIA THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS WILL BE PUSHING INTO THE GREAT BASIN TODAY. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP LATE TUESDAY AND BECOME THE DOMINANT FEATURE THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE MID MORNING BECOMING VFR THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD AS A WEAK TROUGH BOUNDARY MOVES FURTHER EAST AND SOUTH. THE PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED TROUGH AXIS CONTINUES TO BISECT THE REGION ROUGHLY FROM BEEVILLE TO ALICE. THE SLIGHTLY INCREASED WINDS BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD IMPROVE VISIBILITIES AS THE TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD EARLY THIS MORNING. A WEAK NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO TO REGION BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. THE AIRMASS SHOULD BE ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLER. WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES FOLLOWING SUIT BEING ONLY A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY STILL RANGING IN THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 DEGREES. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE IN STORE FOR TONIGHT WITH THE DRIER AIRMASS.
635 AM EST MON FEB 9 2015 AVIATION HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AND PRODUCE FAIR AND SEASONABLY COLD WEATHER TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
232 AM PST MON FEB 9 2015 RAIN SHOWERS AND VERY HIGH ELEVATION LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS MORNING AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS BY TUESDAY PRODUCING DRY WEATHER. FILLING UPPER LOW CENTER OFF THE PAC NW COAST HAS PUSHED A FRONT THROUGH THE CENTRAL CA INTERIOR WITH A FEW RESIDUAL SHOWERS IN THE TULARE COUNTY FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAINS AS WELL AS THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS. UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INLAND ACROSS THE PAC NW AND ZONAL FLOW SETS UP WITH COOLER TEMPS AND CLOUDS TODAY AND TUESDAY BEFORE AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE EPAC AND PROVIDES THE AREA WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND PATCHY LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING FOG IN THE SJV. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH WITH THE RIDGE AND KEEPING THE REGION DRY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
BILLINGS WRIGHT TODAY-TONIGHT: BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA. -HOWERTON GFS/ECMWF IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH RIDGE BUILDING IN THE WESTERN US AND TROUGHING IN THE EAST. SENDING MUCH COOLER AIR INTO THE AREA ON SAT. HOWEVER THERE WAS SUFFICIENT AGREEMENT BETWEEN MODELS AND SURROUNDING OFFICES TO HEDGE COOLER THAN GUIDANCE AT THIS POINT. THE RR AND HRRR HAVE DONE WELL WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE LOW CLOUDS OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS AND REALLY FOCUSED ON IT FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE FORECAST. THE LOWEST CEILINGS/VISIBILITY WITH IFR TO LIFR CRITERIA ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE WESTWARD MOVING ADVANCEMENT OF THE STRATUS WHICH WILL IMPACT KRSL/KSLN THIS MORNING.
634 AM EST MON FEB 9 2015 A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST ALONG A FRONT DRAPED OVER THE AREA BRINGING A MIX OF PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA TONIGHT. H5 TROF DROPPING INTO CNTRL GREAT LKS AS OF THIS TIME.
410 AM MST MON FEB 9 2015 THE RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE ROCKIES WILL MOVE INTO THE PLAINS TODAY. THE RIDGE WILL FLATTEN SOME TONIGHT AS A TROUGH MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS. UPPER FLOW WILL BE WESTERLY ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE INTO A REGION WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE TUESDAY NIGHT.
603 AM EST MON FEB 9 2015 LOW PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA TODAY. A WEAK TROF ALOFT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATER TODAY.
AS HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTS TO THE EAST. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS DEVELOPING AND MOVING EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. WITH A COLD FRONT DIVING NORTH FROM THE APPALACHIANS. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SE. THE TROUGH IN THE GULF WILL BEGIN TO INTENSIFY AND MOVE TO NEAR THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA BY LATE AFTN. WILL USE HIGH END NUMEROUS POPS CLOSEST TO THE GULF TROUGH AND COLD FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN FROM THE NW. WITH LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFYING ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
937 AM EST MON FEB 9 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS TO OUR SOUTH ALONG A STALLED FRONT TODAY. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON. A BROAD TROUGH AXIS WILL SWING THROUGH THE FLORIDA KEYS. PRECIPITATION CHANCES PEAK AROUND 18Z AS THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE EYW AND MTH TERMINALS.
THE LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SCT OUT THIS AFTN AS THE ASSOCD UPR LOW WORKS AWAY FM THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK DUE TO GUSTY SANTA ANA WINDS AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE.
THIS TROUGH STRETCHED FROM NEAR LUFKIN TO BRENHAM TO VICTORIA AS OF 3 AM AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. BEHIND THE TROUGH EXPECT A WEAK NORTHERLY/NORTHWESTERLY WIND SHIFT AND WINDS MUCH CALMER THAN YESTERDAY /AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH/. THIS RIDGING WILL PROMOTE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES /AND A DRY FORECAST/ THROUGH MID-WEEK.
619 AM EST MON FEB 9 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS TO OUR SOUTH ALONG A STALLED FRONT TODAY. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN YESTERDAY AS SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR HAS MOVED INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. PREFERRED THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE HIGHS IN MOST LOCATIONS. WENT WITH THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE. A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY IN MOST LOCATIONS.
WILL GET "CHANCE"S GOING FOR SNOW IN THE HIGH MOUNTAINS AFTER 06Z TONIGHT.
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTH. AS COOLER AIR FROM THE NORTHEAST RUNS INTO HIGHER SURFACE DEWPOINT AIR. BILLINGS WRIGHT TODAY-TONIGHT: BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA. -HOWERTON GFS/ECMWF IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH RIDGE BUILDING IN THE WESTERN US AND TROUGHING IN THE EAST. SENDING MUCH COOLER AIR INTO THE AREA ON SAT. HOWEVER THERE WAS SUFFICIENT AGREEMENT BETWEEN MODELS AND SURROUNDING OFFICES TO HEDGE COOLER THAN GUIDANCE AT THIS POINT. THE RR AND HRRR HAVE DONE WELL WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE LOW CLOUDS OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS AND REALLY FOCUSED ON IT FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE FORECAST. THE LOWEST CEILINGS/VISIBILITY WITH IFR TO LIFR CRITERIA ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE WESTWARD MOVING ADVANCEMENT OF THE STRATUS WHICH WILL IMPACT KRSL/KSLN THIS MORNING.
647 AM EST MON FEB 9 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH TODAY AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFF THE COAST.
SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED AND INCREASED IN COVERAGE THE PAST FEW HOURS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE FRONT NEAR MEMPHIS WITH A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH INTO NORTHWEST ALABAMA EARLY THIS MORNING. THE FORECAST TREND OF RAIN CHANCES THE HIGHEST EAST AND SOUTH AND DECREASING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON STILL LOOK GOOD.
347 AM MST MON FEB 9 2015 THE WESTERN RIDGE IS UNDER ATTACK FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS BEFORE IT REBOUNDS LATE IN THE WEEK. THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST THIS MORNING AS A WEAKENING TROUGH WORKS THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN. THE INITIAL PUSH OF THIS TROUGH SLOWS AS IT WORKS INTO THE MEAN RIDGE. TUESDAY THE RIDGE REBOUNDS IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC AS A STRONGER WAVE DIGS DOWN ITS EAST SIDE FROM THE NW. THE 80KT JET AND COLD FRONT SAGS INTO THE SAN JUAN MTNS THROUGH THE DAY. THE TROUGH TURNS TO THE SOUTHWEST WED AFTERNOON AND SOME MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE DRAWN WEST OVER THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS.
938 AM EST MON FEB 9 2015 WITH A COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST TUESDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM THE WEST.
426 AM MST MON FEB 9 2015 12Z TAF CYCLE WINDS ALOFT BECOMING WESTERLY WITH SFC LEE TROF DEVELOPING.
1017 AM EST MON FEB 9 2015 AREA OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE SEEN IN SATELLITE OVER THE GULF WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND AMPLIFYING TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THE LOW SHOULD MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL FLORIDA THIS EVENING WITH BEST DYNAMICS AND LIFT JUST AHEAD OF IT. ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE LOW TRACK OR GENERALLY SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 4 CORRIDOR. MAJORITY OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD MOVE OUT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE LOW THIS EVENING WITH A FEW SHOWERS STILL POSSIBLE UNTIL THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH OVERNIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN LATE TONIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING AS SOME COOLER DRIER MOVES INTO THE REGION. SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE WATERS THIS MORNING AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVES CLOSER TO THE REGION.
THIS COULD LEAD TO FREEZING OF ANY REMAINING LIQUID THAT REMAINS ON ROADWAYS AND SIDEWALKS. BUT THE RAP SHOWS MID-LEVEL MOISTURE QUICKLY SHUNTING EAST OVER THE RIDGES BY AFTERNOON. TAX TROUGH AXIS WILL PASS THROUGH TONIGHT. EXITING THE RIDGES AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS WOULD BE A GOOD TIME TO SEE PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE. FREEZING DRIZZLE THAT DOES DEVELOP WOULD HOLD ON LONGEST IN THE RIDGES. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST TUESDAY AND THE COLD POOL ALOFT WILL MODIFY AS IT SINKS INTO NORTHERN WV. STILL DOES NOT APPEAR THAT WE WILL BE ABLE TO GET RID OF THE LOW CLOUD DECK AS MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW SATURATION AT AROUND 1000FT THROUGH TUESDAY.
639 AM EST MON FEB 9 2015 LOW PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA TODAY. A WEAK TROF ALOFT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATER TODAY.
INSTEAD WILL FAVOR CONTINUING THE HIGH WIND WATCH FOR THE ARLINGTON AND SW PLATTE COUNTY AREAS.
545 AM CST Mon Feb 9 2015 Behind yesterday's cold front, cooler air was working its way across the region. Cloud cover associated with the departing upper level trough was working its way to the southwest across the region overnight as well. The dry and cool trend will continue tonight with temperatures falling into the lower 20s to lower 30s from northeast to southwest across the region.
TODAY-TONIGHT: BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA. -HOWERTON GFS/ECMWF IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH RIDGE BUILDING IN THE WESTERN US AND TROUGHING IN THE EAST. SENDING MUCH COOLER AIR INTO THE AREA ON SAT. HOWEVER THERE WAS SUFFICIENT AGREEMENT BETWEEN MODELS AND SURROUNDING OFFICES TO HEDGE COOLER THAN GUIDANCE AT THIS POINT. THE RR AND HRRR HAVE DONE WELL WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE LOW CLOUDS OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS AND REALLY FOCUSED ON IT FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE FORECAST. THE LOWEST CEILINGS/VISIBILITY WITH IFR TO LIFR CRITERIA ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE WESTWARD MOVING ADVANCEMENT OF THE STRATUS WHICH WILL IMPACT KRSL/KSLN THIS MORNING.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER AS COMPARED TO THIS PAST WEEKEND BUT STILL REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD TONIGHT WITH SKIES CLEARING ACROSS AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS CENTERED ABOUT 500 MILES WEST OF THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE AND NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PRODUCING EXCEPTIONALLY DRY AIR ABOVE AN INVERSION ABOUT 1900 FT OFF THE GROUND WHERE A FAIR AMOUNT OF MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED CLOSE TO THE GROUND. A WEAK TROUGH IS SITUATED VERY ROUGHLY FROM ABOUT SULLIVAN CITY TO SARITA WITH WIND SPEEDS DECREASING ALONG THE FRONT. SLIGHTLY LOWER SURFACE MOISTURE LEVELS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DIP A LITTLE COOLER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHT BUT DEWPOINTS NO LOWER THAN ABOUT 50 DEGREES WILL KEEP THINGS FROM GETTING TOO CHILLY AMID GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS.
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE WEST COAST WILL MOVE EAST TODAY INTO THE GREAT BASIN. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP OVER THE EAST PACIFIC AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO THE LARGE EAST PAC TROUGH THAT'S BROUGHT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO MUCH OF CENTRAL AND ESPECIALLY NORTHERN CALIFORNIA THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS WILL BE PUSHING INTO THE GREAT BASIN TODAY. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP LATE TUESDAY AND BECOME THE DOMINANT FEATURE THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.