Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
As upper trough lies over the eastern states this evening skies will be partly cloudy overnight but a new impulse in the northwest flow through the trough will move in late tonight and early Saturday. SR Chattanooga Airport, TN 89 71 88 71 84 / 50 30 70 60 70 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 87 71 88 70 87 / 50 30 70 40 70 Oak Ridge, TN 86 70 87 69 85 / 50 30 70 50 70 Tri Cities Airport, TN 86 67 88 68 87 / 50 30 70 20 60.
349 AM CDT Sat Jul 10 2021 An area of weak warm air advection at H7 coupled with H5 short wave energy rotating through the cyclonic flow at that level, with the low center over the southern Red River Valley, has resulted in deep moist convection forming on the warm advection arc from just northwest of Bismarck to near Sidney, Montana. Other showers were over LaMoure and Dickey counties, closer to the low center. As the H5 wave drifts south today and an H5 ridge flops into southern Saskatchewan and southern Manitoba, and into North Dakota this afternoon, convection chances will decrease. Warmer today with more solar insulation and everyplace into the lower 80s for highs.
1141 PM CDT Fri Jul 9 2021 Low level moisture was increasing over the forecast area this afternoon as a warm front moved northeastward from southwest Missouri and southeast Kansas into south central and central Missouri. Convection-allowing models continue to show a convective complex developing in this area during the evening as the low level jet lifts moisture over stalled front and an upper level disturbance approaches from the northwest. This system will move southeastward into eastern Kansas and western Missouri early tomorrow morning but will likely dissipate with loss of the low level jet.
404 AM EDT Sat Jul 10 2021 Front that extended from Missouri to North Carolina will move little today and will track north tonight as a warm front ahead of low pressure moving into the Ohio Valley.
Lower level ridging could bring in more Gulf moisture in the overnight hours, which will raise our rain chances again tomorrow. Overnight lows will be in the low 70s for most of our area.
345 AM CDT Sat Jul 10 2021 An active period of weather continues early this morning as another decaying MCS over the lower Ohio Valley continues to track into KY/TN as of 08z. The active pattern will continue late tonight into Sunday as an upper trough will dive SE/SSE from the northern Plains into the Mid South, pushing a cold front toward the Tennessee Valley region. The front will be slow to progress as the associated upper low meanders over the Ohio Valley -- gradually weakening as it does so.
358 AM EDT Sat Jul 10 2021 High pressure provides dry weather and cooler temperatures today. High pressure will keep the day dry with increased sunshine and comfortable conditions. Shower and thunderstorm chances return late tonight as a warm front approaches the forecast area. The risk for showers and storms continue on Sunday as the warm front continues to press northward and another upper level wave swings through.
101 AM CDT Sat Jul 10 2021 (This evening through Saturday) Upper level low continues to spin across South Central Texas, with fairly widespread showers and storms spreading northwest across the Hill Country and Heartland. Most of this will die before sunset, leaving just a few showers across the I-10 corridor closer to the upper low itself. CAM's aren't showing much in the way of convection tomorrow and its confined to the extreme southern locations, as the upper low weakens and fills.
Rapidly waning deep tropical moisture, as well as weak 500 mb troughiness over the BRO CWFA, will support only low-end scattered convection for Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley today. Tonight and Sunday, overall dry weather will occur as lower precipitable water values and building mid-level high pressure combine.
High pressure begins to build in tonight for clearing skies and light winds. Minimum temperatures were lowered slightly, mostly over the higher basins along the Divide and over the southwest. A high pressure ridge will keep the area mostly clear with generally light winds; however, some breezy westerly winds may mix down to the surface at times between 18Z and 03Z.
131 AM EDT Sat Jul 10 2021 High pressure provides dry weather and cooler temperatures today. High pressure will keep the day dry with increased sunshine and comfortable conditions. Shower and thunderstorm chances return late tonight as a warm front approaches the forecast area. The risk for showers and storms continue on Sunday as the warm front continues to press northward and another upper level wave swings through.
Southeast winds have returned to central portions of the state with the cold front still upstream. Deepening upper trough sinks south-southeast along the Missouri River over the weekend, dragging the synoptic boundary through today. Much cooler temps still expected today and Sunday.
354 AM EDT Sat Jul 10 2021 High pressure will bring seasonable temperatures and dry weather this weekend. A series of fronts and offshore high pressure will allow for some showers and possible isolated thunderstorms through the work week. Will be a cooler night with lows mostly in the 50s. The ridge peaks over the CWA sun morning with a return SW flow developing in the afternoon. Highs will be a few degrees warmer than Saturday and range from the upper 70s in the mtns and on the coast, to the low 80s in the rest of the inland areas.
225 AM EDT Sat Jul 10 2021 A warm front will drift slowly north into the state on Sunday, ushering in higher humidity and hotter temperatures.
KMCB is likely to see the lowest LIFR conditions late tonight/early Saturday morning due to low CIGS and patchy fog.
Meanwhile, the model consensus however suggested activity would develop on the Pine Ridge and move through the Sandhills. The NAM soundings also show a pocket of dry air forming in the low to midlevels of the atmosphere which would support strong winds, perhaps coincident with the hail.
255 AM MDT Sat Jul 10 2021 Current surface analysis shows cold front well south and southeast of the region, with weak high pressure to the northwest of the area. Much of the energy with the upper trough has shifted east and southeast of the forecast area, but a couple of areas of showers and thunderstorms still exist across western into south central SD, including a strong storm over southern Harding into Butte counties. Cooler wx will be in place for the first half of the weekend as the trough only slowly moves southeast from the Northern Plains into the mid MS river valley over the next 24 hours.
Lingering moisture and daytime heating near/along the seabreeze (or outflows) could produce isolated/scattered SH/ TSRA even with the upper ridge trying to build in from the west.
So, I lowered the lows in our forecast around 5 degrees over our northern CWA tonight.
348 AM CDT Sat Jul 10 2021 After a busy evening/early morning of widespread severe storms with damaging winds leading to widespread power outages, cooler temperatures are expected for the remainder of the weekend with scattered showers and thunderstorms in the forecast. This positions the region in northwesterly flow aloft keeping temperatures cooler than normal with off and on showers through Sunday morning.
Wildfires near toward the lower ID Panhandle and Blue Mountains is expected to expand into Saturday morning bringing MVFR conditions near KLWS and KPUW.
The CWA is on the north side of a low level ridge stretching across the northeast Gulf of Mexico this morning with generally south to southwest flow across the region.
This boundary will likely be the primary focus for redeveloping showers and thunderstorms by this afternoon as a series of low-amplitude mid-level perturbations round a deep, elongating upper-level trough and spread episodic lift over the region.
On Saturday, persistent upper ridge over the western conus should begin to contract, with ridging over the eastern Gulf of Mexico flattening out. This will allow a trough to dig down into the Dakotas and mid-Mississippi Valley. At the same time, low pressure at the surface will drag a stronger frontal boundary toward the region.
Meanwhile, an upper level short wave trough diving southeast from South Dakota into western Iowa today will help to drive a cold front through the Panhandles this morning and early this afternoon. This low level upslope flow may help to keep any mountain convection going into the far western Panhandles during the afternoon.
The active pattern will continue late tonight into Sunday as an upper trough will dive SE/SSE from the northern Plains into the Mid South, pushing a cold front toward the Tennessee Valley region. The front will be slow to progress as the associated upper low meanders over the Ohio Valley -- gradually weakening as it does so.
After a busy evening/early morning of widespread severe storms with damaging winds leading to widespread power outages, cooler temperatures are expected for the remainder of the weekend with scattered showers and thunderstorms in the forecast. This positions the region in northwesterly flow aloft keeping temperatures cooler than normal with off and on showers through Sunday morning.
A weak upper ridge is expected to build over the region during the period.
702 AM EDT Sat Jul 10 2021 Weak high pressure will promote fair dry weather across the region to start the weekend. weak high pressure will promote generally fair dry weather. disorganized area of low pressure over the Ohio valley on Sunday will start to push a warm front in our direction.
534 AM MDT Sat Jul 10 2021 At the start of the short term period, the CWA sees a northwesterly flow aloft as it remains underneath the backside of a positively tilted upper air trough in the northern Plains area with an upper air ridge over the western CONUS.
515 AM MDT Sat Jul 10 2021 Cold front moved through southeast Wyoming last night and is currently located across northern Colorado this morning. Pretty uneventful day weather wise today as high pressure remains in control of the weather. Warmer temperatures return Sunday with 700mb temperatures warming by 5-6C.
Today, based on latest CAMs, has the look for a classic rim shot event with scattered strong to isolated severe thunderstorms propagating SW off the higher terrain late this afternoon into this evening. Most times the area will have a down day after a big event, however with the upper high near Las Vegas on Sunday and N/NE flow over the area, will see another round of storms propagate off the higher terrain. Today is shaping up to be a classic rim shot event with scattered thunderstorms forming over the higher terrain and propagating to the southwest.
This trough has forced northerly winds and as a result much drier air is filtering into the area. The post-trough flow will favor strong winds over southeast Utah and southwest Colorado this afternoon. This trough has also pushed the high pressure to our southwest. The thermal ridge will be squashed southward towards the Four Corners area, where records are possible especially given KGJT broke the all-time high yesterday. Surface temperatures will be slightly "cooler" and not as intense as they have been for the last few days across the northern half of the forecast area. Tonight the drier air should result in slightly more efficient cooling so lows will be a couple of degrees cooler than previous nights.
400 AM MDT Sat Jul 10 2021 At the start of the short term period, the CWA sees a northwesterly flow aloft as it remains underneath the backside of a positively tilted upper air trough in the northern Plains area with an upper air ridge over the western CONUS.
The heat wave continues as high pressure lingers over the region. This morning through Sunday evening Stagnant high pressure tightens its grips over the Great Basin and will be centered right over Nevada through the weekend. Elevated moisture continues to remain trapped under the ridge, bringing cu around 15kft.
Not expecting any severe weather today, but some brief heavy rain is possible as a conveyor of moist air wraps back to the west around the developing upper low. The upper low will slowly drift into northeast Missouri by Sunday afternoon. Some upper 40s are evening possible across the higher elevations of Sheridan county. Highs will remain a few degrees below average in the lower 80s. Upper level ridging briefly builds in the first of the week in the wake of the low.
1026 AM EDT Sat Jul 10 2021 Weak high pressure will promote fair dry weather across the region to start the weekend. Weak northerly upslope flow may help the higher terrain south of Lake Ontario hang onto some thicker cloud cover. A large disorganized area of low pressure over the Ohio valley on Sunday will start to push a warm front in our direction.
An active period of weather continues early this morning as another decaying MCS over the lower Ohio Valley continues to track into KY/TN as of 08z. The active pattern will continue late tonight into Sunday as an upper trough will dive SE/SSE from the northern Plains into the Mid South, pushing a cold front toward the Tennessee Valley region. The front will be slow to progress as the associated upper low meanders over the Ohio Valley -- gradually weakening as it does so.
529 AM MDT Sat Jul 10 2021 High pressure will slide across the region today with mostly clear skies and light winds. Upper ridge is building north from the Great Basin and will bring much warmer temperatures into the state. Temperatures will cool as the ridge is suppressed.
An area of weak warm air advection at H7 coupled with H5 short wave energy rotating through the cyclonic flow at that level, with the low center over the southern Red River Valley, has resulted in deep moist convection forming on the warm advection arc from just northwest of Bismarck to near Sidney, Montana. Other showers were over LaMoure and Dickey counties, closer to the low center. As the H5 wave drifts south today and an H5 ridge flops into southern Saskatchewan and southern Manitoba, and into North Dakota this afternoon, convection chances will decrease. Warmer today with more solar insulation and everyplace into the lower 80s for highs.
Overnight Saturday night into Sunday morning another wave of storms is expected to develop to our northwest in response to the deepening upper trough. We should see storms weaken as they move further into Middle TN and away from the upper low, but a resurgence in activity is possible during the day on Sunday as temperatures warm and instability spikes again.
High pressure remains in control through Sunday delivering hot daytime temperatures and light breezes. High pressure remains the dominant weather producer, with the hottest day anticipated later this afternoon.
624 AM EDT Sat Jul 10 2021 Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb ridge across the western and southern U. up into the Canadian Rockies with troughing across the Great Lakes region into New England.
Only one site is reporting the higher value, and most areas will likely remain at or below 0.
609 AM CDT Sat Jul 10 2021 A few showers have developed ahead of the cold front this morning in the Oklahoma Panhandle. The cold front will move through the DHT and GUY TAF sites this morning and through the AMA TAF site around mid day. Meanwhile, an upper level short wave trough diving southeast from South Dakota into western Iowa today will help to drive a cold front through the Panhandles this morning and early this afternoon. This low level upslope flow may help to keep any mountain convection going into the far western Panhandles during the afternoon.
841 AM MDT Sat Jul 10 2021 Clear skies and light winds are expected today with an upper ridge building in this morning. Don't forget the sunscreen if you're headed out today! TFJ High pressure will slide across the region today with mostly clear skies and light winds. Upper ridge is building north from the Great Basin and will bring much warmer temperatures into the state. Temperatures will cool as the ridge is suppressed.
Showers and storms wl bcm more widespread tngt as a potent upr lvl trof/CDFNT apchs AR the NW.
Warm conditions continue tonight, with lows in the lower 70s. A weak cold front will approach from the north tonight and should enter the Big Country towards daybreak Sunday.
Climatologically hot weather continues for much of the interior as upper-level ridging continues to amplify through the weekend. Meanwhile, this strong ridging aloft will drop the inversion near the surface each night, breaching the ridges of Lake and southeastern Mendocino counties. This has resulted in minimum overnight temperatures in the high 70s to low 80s for these areas early this morning, and this pattern should continue tonight and Sunday night, providing little reprieve from each afternoon's heat.
Sunday, though still quite mild, will experience high temps a little 'cooler' than today.
The timing of a cold front is also expected to be located near southern sections or just south of the CWA by mid- afternoon. A few stronger storms may still form in the vicinity of the upper low during the afternoon, and should gradually weaken during the evening hours. With the most widespread convection anticipated to remain south of the area, and the progressive nature of convection near the upper low, the overall flash flooding threat appears to be lesser today. Rain chances continue into Sunday as the upper low makes its slow movement eastward.
AEX has the highest risk of being affected by storms in the afternoon.
For temperatures, still looks like we are headed toward near 80, or just under 80, perhaps a tad warmer from the previous forecast, but still cool. Leftover sky cover should help keep temps from getting too toasty and cooler, drier air is moving in behind a cold front that has pushed into Kansas.
A long-wave trough axis extends equatorward to near northern Florida. This in combination with a northwestward moving TUTT cell has split the subtropical deep layer mean anticyclone such that two centers are evident, the smaller one centered over the Gulf of Mexico, and the primary system centered over the North Atlantic. The synoptic setup through this evening would seem to favor wetter than average conditions, and the conditions look favorable for cumulus cloud line development over the archipelago (especially, the lower Florida Keys) by this afternoon.
1040 AM EDT Sat Jul 10 2021 High pressure provides dry weather and cooler temperatures today. The potential for strong thunderstorms returns tomorrow with an approaching warm front. Quiet dry weather will continue into the afternoon/evening under high pressure. High to mid level clouds will continue to increase across eastern Ohio as a low pressure system advances through the Midwest. Shower and thunderstorm chances return late tonight under moist advection ahead an approaching warm front. The risk for showers and storms continue on Sunday as the warm front continues to press northward and another upper level wave swings through.
915 AM EDT Sat Jul 10 2021 High pressure will bring seasonable temperatures and dry weather this weekend. A series of fronts and offshore high pressure will allow for some showers and possible isolated thunderstorms through the work week. Will be a cooler night with lows mostly in the 50s. The ridge peaks over the CWA sun morning with a return SW flow developing in the afternoon. Highs will be a few degrees warmer than Saturday and range from the upper 70s in the mtns and on the coast, to the low 80s in the rest of the inland areas.
The multi-day precipitation event is ending as the upper level low that has been over Texas has shifted westward into Northern Mexico and high pressure is building in its place. High temperatures this afternoon will be around 10 degrees warmer than yesterday thanks to breaks in the cloud cover. Temperatures on Sunday are fairly similar to today, but maybe a degree or two warmer. As we are enjoying the good weather Sunday afternoon, a weak boundary associated with an upper level low will be pushing southward across the Southern Plains.
738 AM EDT Sat Jul 10 2021 High pressure will bring seasonable temperatures and dry weather this weekend. A series of fronts and offshore high pressure will allow for some showers and possible isolated thunderstorms through the work week. Will be a cooler night with lows mostly in the 50s. The ridge peaks over the CWA sun morning with a return SW flow developing in the afternoon. Highs will be a few degrees warmer than Saturday and range from the upper 70s in the mtns and on the coast, to the low 80s in the rest of the inland areas.
649 AM EDT Sat Jul 10 2021 Front that extended from Missouri to North Carolina will move little today and will track north tonight as a warm front ahead of low pressure moving into the Ohio Valley.
Meanwhile, looking at the BYX VAD wind profile, winds in the lowest 4000 ft remains from the east southeast. This would support possible cloudline development, especially in the lower Keys, where the layer of northeast wind will be the deepest. Additional showers and thunderstorms will develop along and adjacent to the islands, especially the lower Keys.
727 AM EDT Sat Jul 10 2021 High pressure provides dry weather and cooler temperatures today. High pressure will keep the day dry with increased sunshine and comfortable conditions. Shower and thunderstorm chances return late tonight as a warm front approaches the forecast area. The risk for showers and storms continue on Sunday as the warm front continues to press northward and another upper level wave swings through.
522 AM MDT Sat Jul 10 2021 Current surface analysis shows cold front well south and southeast of the region, with weak high pressure to the northwest of the area. Much of the energy with the upper trough has shifted east and southeast of the forecast area, but a couple of areas of showers and thunderstorms still exist across western into south central SD, including a strong storm over southern Harding into Butte counties. Cooler wx will be in place for the first half of the weekend as the trough only slowly moves southeast from the Northern Plains into the mid MS river valley over the next 24 hours.
238 PM CDT Sat Jul 10 2021 There are a few remnant showers left across the southeastern CWA this afternoon as the upper low slowly rotates out of the northern plains. Drier and warmer conditions are expected for Sunday as an upper ridge noses in from the desert southwest, extending from Las Vegas to northeastern ND.
Storms will continue to develop along and ahead of a cold front that is moving into northwest Oklahoma this afternoon.
1033 AM CDT Sat Jul 10 2021 At mid-morning, a cold front extended from southeast Nebraska to southwest Kansas with an outflow boundary from southwest Missouri into southeast Kansas.
225 PM MDT Sat Jul 10 2021 At the start of the short term period, the CWA sees a northwesterly flow aloft as it remains underneath the backside of a positively tilted upper air trough in the northern Plains area with an upper air ridge over the western CONUS.
1215 PM CDT Sat Jul 10 2021 The upper trof and associated cool pool aloft are moving through the region and helping to fuel showers and thunderstorms mainly up near Highway 20 from Valentine to O'Neill, while western Nebraska towards the panhandle is remaining generally dry. While widespread severe storms are not expected today, one or two may be capable of generating large hail and producing isolated wind damage especially out near the Highway 281 corridor. The low level wind field remains amplified and with good downward momentum transfer evident on model soundings expect breezy conditions will be prevalent into this evening. Upper level ridging briefly builds in the first of the week in the wake of the low.
226 PM MDT Sat Jul 10 2021 An upper ridge extending from the Desert SW through Montana this afternoon has put a lid on cumulus development and thus thunderstorm development. This ridge will allow things to continue to warm into Sunday where high temperatures will get around the century mark in many areas. A cold front will then approach the area from the NW but not arriving till evening.