Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
This activity will wane from w to e throughout the day as high pressure builds in behind it. Ridging in response to jet favored dynamic subsidence and relatively zonal flow will dominate the forecast in the short term, resulting in temperature near the climatological norm on Tuesday.
Some light radar returns are visible in northeast Montana, but not expecting precipitation for a while in our northwest, with forecast soundings showing the lower levels not saturated until mid afternoon.
High pressure over the area this afternoon, will become centered to the north and strengthen overnight. As the high builds toward the north, the flow will be from the north to northeast. Inland, temperatures will fall into the lower 30s. For Tuesday, the high will build more toward the northeast. Temperatures will rise closer to normal levels inland Tuesday afternoon, but will be cooler at the coast.
But with warmer air also moving in, the precip will be in the form of a rain and snow mix (with the severe drought, we'll take anything we can get). Temperatures will be warmer Tuesday as a west then NW wind will sweep out the colder air.
248 PM CST Mon Feb 14 2022 An upper level trough will move across the Canadian border and bring a weak wave through the area. This will allow for some warmer temperatures, but with a south to southeast wind in the low levels the warmest air will likely get bottled up west of the James River. So for now fire weather concerns should stay in the high to very high range Tuesday afternoon but with gusts of 35 mph or so still some concerns. The right entrance region of the upper level jet moves through Tuesday afternoon and night which will result in a cold front settling south. Moisture is a bit scarce and most of the thermal profile is warmer than the dendritic zone which is not supportive for precipitation production.
1020 AM MST Mon Feb 14 2022 Latest analysis shows the upper ridge over the western CONUS building eastward toward the forecast area as an upper low drops southward into the Pacific Northwest. At the surface, high pressure is sliding southeastward out of Saskatchewan into the eastern Dakotas and western Minnesota. This will lead to a wide spread in the temperatures today with highs only reaching the lower 30s in parts of Perkins and Ziebach counties, with lower 50s expected over parts of northeastern Wyoming and far southwestern South Dakota. Breezy southeasterly winds will develop today due to the pressure gradient between the high pressure to the east and the low pressure trough to the west. Split upper flow will develop tonight as the Pac NW upper low dives southward into California and Nevada.
1246 PM EST Mon Feb 14 2022 High pressure will build over the region for the start of the work week.
(This evening through Tuesday) A trough/upper low, located over the Pacific Northwest, will move southward tonight through Tuesday.
Dew points currently in the upper teens and 20s will rise into the low to mid 40s in most locations by 12Z Tuesday.
229 PM EST Mon Feb 14 2022 Below normal temperatures bottom out tonight in the single digits and teens before trending significantly warmer through midweek.
High pressure and warm weather will begin to retreat as a winter storm system impacts the area over the coming days.
241 PM EST Mon Feb 14 2022 Flat/zonal flow aloft the region will slowly become west- southwesterly Tue as a weak short wave trough tracks along the northern Gulf coast. bringing in warmer and more moist air.
122 PM CST Mon Feb 14 2022 A weak cold front slipped south of the TN River this morning, shifting winds to the north briefly. Heating and mixing have allowed temperatures to climb into the upper 40s to lower 50s at this hour, on their way into the middle to upper 50s southwest to around 50 northeast (except the higher plateaus).
The broad upper trough over the eastern US will continue to shift east, allowing heights to gradually rise over our area with the flow aloft nearly zonal by the end of the period.
Very dry air remains in place with dewpoints in the lower 20s and humidity less than 20% in many locations. Otherwise, it'll be a warm day with highs in the lower 70s. Temperatures will again climb into the lower 70s under mostly sunny skies.
Given RH values and winds will be critical, have issued a fire weather watch for Baca county and the lower elevations of Las Animas county for tomorrow afternoon. Satellite and current surface observations show clear skies across the CWA, and temperatures across the eastern plains remain several degrees warmer than the previous few nights. Northwest flow aloft will become more westerly throughout the day today as high pressure continues to build into the area. Forecasted highs for today will reach into the high-50s to low-60s over the plains and mid-40s over the higher terrain.
As mid- level ridging amplifies over the Gulf of Mexico, it will push the boundary back to the north today.
1135 AM CST Mon Feb 14 2022 Summary: A lull in the pattern will occur today with partly to mostly sunny skies and slightly warmer temps.
This afternoon, northwest flow aloft persisted over the region due to to troughing over the northeast CONUS and an upstream closed low deepening off the coast of the Pacific Northwest. Ahead of the trough will be breezy southeasterly winds, and behind it will be breezy northwesterly winds, with colder air filtering in.
256 PM EST Mon Feb 14 2022 Discussion/Marine/Hydro - Lake enhanced snow tapers off this evening Expect about another half inch to inch of snow this evening near Lake Michigan before subsidence associated with surface and upper ridging moves in and puts an end to the activity shortly after midnight.
1127 AM CST Mon Feb 14 2022 At 09Z, a cold front had moved into central KS. A reinforcing cold front however was dropping south from central and southeast SD, and should reach into Keya Paha and Boyd County by daybreak. Today, southerly winds increase across the area to 15 to 25 mph near and west of Highway 83, with the higher gusts to 30 mph across the western Sandhills. With a lack of downslope winds, highs today will be a little cooler across the west and southwest than yesterday. The upper flow will remain fairly zonal through tonight as a positively tilted upper trough drops into the Great Basin. Tuesday, the upper level flow becomes more southwesterly on as a positively tilted trough moves across the Great Basin.
Latest models continue to take the upper low, currently along the WA coast, southeastward through our CWA tonight then into NV Tuesday. Surface cold front will pass through eastern Oregon this afternoon and western Idaho early this evening, with an hour or two of moderate to heavy pcpn along and behind it. Otherwise, cooler and breezy/windy Tuesday. A cold front will spread showers into eastern Oregon and the west central Idaho and Boise mountains after 18z, reaching KREO and KBOI by 00z/Tue, and the NV border and KJER/KTWF by 03z/Tue.
/issued 710 AM EST Mon Feb 14 2022/ An upper level trough off the eastern seaboard pushes east during today. allowing flat ridging/nearly zonal flow to work in across the Gulf of Mexico and FL. High pressure slowly tracking east will allow the gradient to relax today with robust winds diminishing.
318 PM EST Mon Feb 14 2022 High pressure centered north of the area tonight slides offshore Tuesday, allowing a warming trend to commence mid to late week.
155 PM EST Mon Feb 14 2022 Below normal temperatures bottom out tonight in the single digits and teens before trending significantly warmer through midweek.
LW Chattanooga Airport, TN 53 30 61 40 62 / 0 0 0 0 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 47 26 59 33 63 / 0 0 0 0 10 Oak Ridge, TN 47 26 58 33 63 / 0 0 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 42 21 54 30 59 / 0 0 0 0 10.
High pressure still situated over Deep South Texas will bring VFR conditions today and tonight. VFR is anticipated at the aerodromes through the next 24 hours with high pressure in control. At the surface, the center of high pressure will rapidly shift east from the BRO CWFA to the Mid-Atlantic region.
A weak cold front slipped south of the TN River this morning, shifting winds to the north briefly. Heating and mixing have allowed temperatures to climb into the upper 40s to lower 50s at this hour, on their way into the middle to upper 50s southwest to around 50 northeast (except the higher plateaus).
Probably looking at 50s for highs there, with cooler 40s and 30s further north.
Southeasterly winds will pick up overnight, with some locations rising during the early morning hours as warmer air and cloud cover increase. There will be warm air advection for most of the day, although not as strong as previous systems so temps will remain in the teens and 20s instead of getting above freezing. Temperatures start off on the cold side in the wake of an arctic cold front.
622 PM EST Mon Feb 14 2022 High pressure centered north of the area tonight slides offshore Tuesday, allowing a warming trend to commence mid to late week.
Placed a call to a spotter west of Minot, under the highest returns, and was told it was a heavy flurry for a half hour or so resulting in a dusting. This afternoon, northwest flow aloft persisted over the region due to to troughing over the northeast CONUS and an upstream closed low deepening off the coast of the Pacific Northwest. Ahead of the trough will be breezy southeasterly winds, and behind it will be breezy northwesterly winds, with colder air filtering in.
/Tonight through Monday/ Key Messages: - Warmer with gusty southeast winds Tuesday.
354 PM CST Mon Feb 14 2022 Summary: Some cool overnight lows in the teens below zero across the borderland tonight, but warmer temperatures and a chance for snow and perhaps some light freezing drizzle Tuesday and Tuesday night.
808 PM CST Mon Feb 14 2022 Surface and upper level ridging will remain in place across the Lower Mississippi Valley through Tuesday. /issued 318 PM CST Mon Feb 14 2022/ A warming trend will continue over the next few days as high pressure continues to move eastward.
830 PM EST Mon Feb 14 2022 Below normal temperatures bottom out tonight in the single digits and teens before trending significantly warmer through midweek.
- Lake enhanced snow tapers off this evening Expect about another half inch to inch of snow this evening near Lake Michigan before subsidence associated with surface and upper ridging moves in and puts an end to the activity shortly after midnight.
906 PM EST Mon Feb 14 2022 High pressure centered north of the area tonight slides offshore Tuesday, allowing a warming trend to commence mid to late week.
/issued 318 PM CST Mon Feb 14 2022/ A warming trend will continue over the next few days as high pressure continues to move eastward.
This will result in much cooler weather, increased winds, and light mountain precipitation.
SHORT TERM (Tonight through Tuesday Night): The mid-level ridge moves east over the SE United States as zonal flow situates itself over Deep South Texas. Tomorrow is slightly warmer and breezier with gusts up to 15-20 kts expected. As clouds start to creep in for tomorrow night, Tuesday night looks to be slightly warmer with lows in the upper 50s and lower 60s.
335 PM CST Mon Feb 14 2022 Quiet weather will continue through tomorrow as southerly winds bring warmer conditions to the area. Though overnight lows will drop down to the middle teens to the lower 20s, afternoon highs tomorrow will reach into the 40s to lower 50s.
814 PM CST Mon Feb 14 2022 Under the influence of high pressure, a cold but tranquil night is in store across the Tennessee Valley. Temps currently range from the lower 40s down into the lower 30s already.
648 PM EST Mon Feb 14 2022 Aviation - Lake enhanced snow tapers off this evening Expect about another half inch to inch of snow this evening near Lake Michigan before subsidence associated with surface and upper ridging moves in and puts an end to the activity shortly after midnight.
556 PM CST Mon Feb 14 2022 Quiet weather will continue through tomorrow as southerly winds bring warmer conditions to the area. Though overnight lows will drop down to the middle teens to the lower 20s, afternoon highs tomorrow will reach into the 40s to lower 50s.
Building high pressure will maintain quiet and dry conditions through the near term. Overnight temperatures will fall into the single digits for areas north of Pittsburgh, with the remainder of the area in the lower teens. Ridging in response to jet favored dynamic subsidence and relatively zonal flow will dominate the forecast in the short term, resulting in temperature near the climatological norm on Tuesday.
342 PM MST Mon Feb 14 2022 A low pressure system is pushing into the Pacific NW, and weak upper ridging covers the Rockies. At the surface, high pressure and easterly flow across eastern SD are keeping temps in the 20s, while a trough and breezy southwesterly flow across the west are allowing temps to rise into 40s. The upper trough will gradually cross the CONUS this week. As the upper low dives southeast tonight, an elongated trough will develop before it splits, keeping most of the energy well to our south.
731 PM EST Mon Feb 14 2022 Below normal temperatures bottom out tonight in the single digits and teens before trending significantly warmer through midweek.
831 PM EST Mon Feb 14 2022 Quiet day across the local area with high pressure centered over the region. High pressure over the waters shifts east over the next few days, with east flow becoming more southeast through the end of the week ahead of a frontal boundary. /issued 241 PM EST Mon Feb 14 2022/ Flat/zonal flow aloft the region will slowly become west- southwesterly Tue as a weak short wave trough tracks along the northern Gulf coast. bringing in warmer and more moist air.
Warmth & Fire Wx Concerns Tuesday: East-west surface pressure gradients will tighten in the Plains Tuesday as lee troughing develops in advance of a trough over the Southwest U. This will bring gusty southwest winds (peak gusts 25 to 40 mph) to our region, and the resulting WAA should combine with ridging aloft and ample sunshine to produce a significant warmup.
531 PM CST Mon Feb 14 2022 An upper level trough will move across the Canadian border and bring a weak wave through the area. This will allow for some warmer temperatures, but with a south to southeast wind in the low levels the warmest air will likely get bottled up west of the James River. So for now fire weather concerns should stay in the high to very high range Tuesday afternoon but with gusts of 35 mph or so still some concerns. The right entrance region of the upper level jet moves through Tuesday afternoon and night which will result in a cold front settling south. Moisture is a bit scarce and most of the thermal profile is warmer than the dendritic zone which is not supportive for precipitation production.
632 PM EST Mon Feb 14 2022 High pressure over the region will move east allowing southerly flow to draw much warmer air into the region for the middle of the week.
318 PM CST Mon Feb 14 2022 A warming trend will continue over the next few days as high pressure continues to move eastward.
Lows tonight will range from the mid 40s over the northern counties to the low 50s along the coast.
911 PM EST Mon Feb 14 2022 High pressure over the region will move east allowing southerly flow to draw much warmer air into the region for the middle of the week.
Current temperatures are in the lower to mid 40s, with a few spots north of Highway 84 in the upper 30s. Zonal flow will then return to the northern Gulf coast briefly before southwesterly flow takes hold on Wednesday in advance of an upper level trough moving over the Desert Southwest and into the south-central CONUS.
Highs will be a few degrees warmer than this, and in all, it's a pretty nice day following the cloudy and cold start. Thus tonight's lows will be initially cool over snow cover, in the north, but increasing south to southeast winds will help keep the temperatures near 10 degrees warmer than last night. This air will provide a mild start to the day Wednesday, ahead of the approaching cold front.
Under the influence of high pressure, a cold but tranquil night is in store across the Tennessee Valley. Temps currently range from the lower 40s down into the lower 30s already. With a very dry airmass and full sunshine, temperatures will respond by warming into the lower to middle 60s Tuesday and middle to upper 60s Wednesday. As such, overnight lows will only drop into the lower to middle 50s as warm and moist air advection persist.
247 AM CST Tue Feb 15 2022 SFC/LL high pressure center now off to our east, and backside southerly will keep our warming trend going today and Wed. The upper trough axis remains pretty far behind the associated cold front, which will pass largely Thu afternoon. The upper trough will finally swing by late Fri. SFC/LL high pressure and flat upper flow will provide dry weather Fri-Sun, with a pretty good warming trend over the weekend. VFR will continue through this taf period with dry high pressure in control. The center of the high will move off to the east, so surface winds will come out of the south on Tuesday.
1250 AM EST Tue Feb 15 2022 High pressure over the region will move east allowing southerly flow to draw much warmer air into the region for the middle of the week.
308 AM EST Tue Feb 15 2022 High pressure will pass overhead today, then move off the Mid- Atlantic coast Wednesday.
Highs today will be in the low to mid 70s for most locations. As previously mentioned, even higher winds and gusts are possible across the higher elevations.
1227 AM EST Tue Feb 15 2022 High pressure centered north of the area tonight slides offshore Tuesday, allowing a warming trend to commence mid to late week.
Strengthening high pressure offshore will keep northwesterly flow over the Pacific Northwest, keeping the door open to weak disturbances through the week that will keep clouds and light shower chances in the forecast.
/issued 808 PM CST Mon Feb 14 2022/ Surface and upper level ridging will remain in place across the Lower Mississippi Valley through Tuesday. /issued 318 PM CST Mon Feb 14 2022/ A warming trend will continue over the next few days as high pressure continues to move eastward.
940 PM PST Mon Feb 14 2022 A deep, cold trough of low pressure will bring cold, windy weather Tuesday as it moves across southern California.
1055 PM CST Mon Feb 14 2022 An upper level trough will move across the Canadian border and bring a weak wave through the area. This will allow for some warmer temperatures, but with a south to southeast wind in the low levels the warmest air will likely get bottled up west of the James River. So for now fire weather concerns should stay in the high to very high range Tuesday afternoon but with gusts of 35 mph or so still some concerns. The right entrance region of the upper level jet moves through Tuesday afternoon and night which will result in a cold front settling south. Moisture is a bit scarce and most of the thermal profile is warmer than the dendritic zone which is not supportive for precipitation production.
1033 PM EST Mon Feb 14 2022 High pressure will build in through Tuesday and then slide offshore Wednesday.
High pressure results in a mostly clear sky today with warming temperatures. Discussion: Zonal flow aloft is expected today with low-level ridging increasing across the Southeast CONUS. This will bring a gradual return of low-level moisture and warmer temperatures today, especially across the southern half of the forecast area. Increasing winds are expected across the higher elevations with a noticeable inversion across the region. Higher elevations along the mountains and plateau will be much warmer than sheltered valley locations across northeast TN and southwest VA due to a clear sky and decoupled winds in the valleys.
Temperatures continue to fall, but as we get into later tonight, they will begin to rise again, thanks to warmer air. Southeasterly winds will pick up overnight, with some locations rising during the early morning hours as warmer air and cloud cover increase. There will be warm air advection for most of the day, although not as strong as previous systems so temps will remain in the teens and 20s instead of getting above freezing. Temperatures start off on the cold side in the wake of an arctic cold front.
Dewpoints have come up slightly today in the south to the low 20s, but still in the teens for the north and east. Winds should remain light but become more southerly by sunrise, however this doesnt look to be enough to keep lows from getting into the low to mid 20s for the northeast. VFR will continue through this taf period with dry high pressure in control. The center of the high will move off to the east, so surface winds will come out of the south on Tuesday.
Building high pressure will maintain quiet and dry conditions through the near term. Ridging and relatively zonal flow will dominate the forecast in the short term. An approaching trough over the northern Great Lakes and high pressure lingering off the East Coast will create a tight pressure gradient over the Midwest and extend into the Ohio River Valley mid-Wednesday.
948 PM MST Mon Feb 14 2022 A low pressure system is pushing into the Pacific NW, and weak upper ridging covers the Rockies. At the surface, high pressure and easterly flow across eastern SD are keeping temps in the 20s, while a trough and breezy southwesterly flow across the west are allowing temps to rise into 40s. The upper trough will gradually cross the CONUS this week. As the upper low dives southeast tonight, an elongated trough will develop before it splits, keeping most of the energy well to our south. The highest amounts - a couple inches or so - will be across southeastern Campbell County and southwestern SD, where snow persists the longest. Northwesterly flow and west coast upper ridging resume as the trough pushes eastward.
102 AM EST Tue Feb 15 2022 High pressure will build in through Tuesday and then slide offshore Wednesday.
343 AM EST Tue Feb 15 2022 Southerly flow will set up over the Ohio Valley today and bring in significantly warmer air to the region.
A relatively strong cold front is moving southeast through the Idaho portion of our CWA this evening. Additional showers are forming well behind the front, with the heaviest band currently extending from the Upper Weiser River Basin southwest into the Lower Treasure Valley and then into southern Malheur County. A cold front will continue to push through the Magic Valley and to the NV border by 06z/Tue. These conditions will end late today and early this evening when a cold front moves through. On Wednesday a weak trough in the northwesterly flow will bring clouds and possibly flurries to eastern-most zones, but eastern Oregon should be mostly sunny.
518 AM CST Tue Feb 15 2022 Breezy southeast winds will develop this morning ahead of low pressure in the Rockies. Good mixing winds in a warm nose will lead to warmer than average highs today. As the low slides southeast into the central plains this evening, winds will shift to the northwest and cooler air will filter back in as Canadian high pressure builds in from the northwest. Cold northerly breezes will continue on Wednesday as H85 temps fall to around -12C on the southern gradient of the high.
638 AM EST Tue Feb 15 2022 Southerly flow will set up over the Ohio Valley today and bring in significantly warmer air to the region.
Cloud area down through the Twin Cities Metro, where the higher accumulations of very light and fluffy snow fell over the weekend. A cold front emanating from the short wave north of the border will move through the forecast area tonight with temperatures falling or steady during the day tomorrow as strong CAA follows. There is a small chance of some flurries north of the metro early on Wednesday with some weak forcing and low level moisture, should there be enough moisture and the forcing weaker than expected, there could be a brief period of freezing drizzle instead.
Continued breezy and cool conditions for Tuesday after yesterday's weak cold frontal passage.