Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION OVER SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI WILL LIFT NORTHWARD TONIGHT AND PULL A WARM FRONT OVER SOUTHWEST ALABAMA NORTHWARD. THE COOL AIR MASS IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA WILL BE REPLACED BY A WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR MASS BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. GRADUAL CLEARING BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS THE FIRST OF 2 UPPER TROUGHS/WAVES MOVE THROUGH.
A SHALLOW UPPER TROUGH/WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE LATTER TOMORROW AFTERNOON WILL AID IN REINFORCING THE NORTHWESTERLY MID-UPPER FLOW PATTERN.
/ISSUED 344 PM CDT TUE OCT 27 2015/ EXPECT LLVL FLOW TO TRANSITION TO A SW/WLY DIRECTION AS THE LOW PRES AREA THAT PUSHED THRU LAST WEEKEND CONTINUES TO MOVE FURTHER NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. LARGE SCALE LIFT SHOULD INCREASE AS UPPER TROF APPROACHES AND ANTICIPATE INCREASING PRECIP COVERAGE WEST-TO-EAST LATE IN THE AFTN AND EARLY EVNG HOURS FRI.
THE COLD FRONT WORKS THROUGH THE SOUTHERN ZONES BEFORE MORNING. THE LATEST MODEL TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE SUPPORTS WIDESPREAD SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. THE GRAND VALLEY AND GRAND FLAT ARE EXPECTED TO STAY ABOVE FREEZING TONIGHT. THOUGH AREAS BELOW 4600 FT MAY STILL DIP TO NEAR FREEZING TOWARDS MORNING AND NEED TO BE WATCHED BY THE OVERNIGHT SHIFT. UPPER LEVEL FLOW REMAINS NORTHWESTERLY EARLY WEDNESDAY BRINGING COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS. A WEAK DISTURBANCE IS INDICATED TO PRECEDE THE MAIN TROUGH AND MAY BRING A FEW HIGH ELEVATION SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE TROUGH SPLITS WITH THE NORTHERN PART MOVING OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.
GIVEN THE LOW TEMP/DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS FARTHER E OVER SCNTRL AR/NCNTRL LA. THIS LOW PRESSURE AREA SHOULD HELP TO TAP SRLY WINDS ACROSS THE WRN SECTIONS OF E TX LATE.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS UTAH TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
AS THE UPPER RIDGE QUICKLY MOVES EAST OF THE AREA ON THU. A COLD FRONT WILL SURGE SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
649 PM CDT TUE OCT 27 2015 COLD FRONT LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AS OF 20Z. WINDY CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW SWINGS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. LOWS WILL BE NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING FOR THE REGION.
WITH CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW. COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION. WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN BEHIND. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S ACROSS NORTHEASTERN WY TO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN SD. CANADIAN UPPER LOW WILL DIVE SOUTH INTO THE DAKOTAS TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
However, a deepening upper level low in the northern stream will drop into the northern Plains tonight and translate into the Upper Mississippi River Valley on Wednesday. Upper low then translates into the Great Lakes later Wednesday into Wednesday night with subsidence overspreading the area. Could see some patchy frost across the north, but will depend on winds as center of the high will remain north and west of the area in Nebraska keeping somewhat of a pressure gradient across the area.
THE SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT US THE LATEST ROUND OF RAIN AND STRONG WINDS MOVES OFF FROM THE LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY TO THE NORTH UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. HAVE BUMPED OVERNIGHT TEMPS UP FROM GUIDANCE WITH THE LACK OF RADIATION COOLING OR ANY COOLER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM.
A TRAILING COLD FRONT FROM THIS LOW NOW OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
A WEAK COLD FRONT JUST OFFSHORE WILL MOVE SLOWLY INLAND TONIGHT. THE TRAILING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL FOLLOW WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH SHOWERS. A SECOND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL KEEP SHOWERS GOING WHILE IS CROSSES THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
This low will continue to drift northward into eastern Missouri today continuing to stream moisture into the area. Tomorrow an upper level trough will dig through the Upper Midwest with a 140kt upper level jet traversing the area.
753 PM EDT TUE OCT 27 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
1017 PM CDT TUE OCT 27 2015 COLD FRONT LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AS OF 20Z. WINDY CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW SWINGS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. LOWS WILL BE NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING FOR THE REGION.
FAIR WEATHER IS ON TAP THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A PASSING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS TEMPERATURES UP TO SEASONAL AVERAGES.
The synoptic pattern this afternoon features an amplified trough across portions of the central CONUS, with a downstream ridge off the east coast. will lift north and deepen as it begin to phase with the approaching upper-level trough. One to locally three inches of additional rainfall will be possible mainly tonight into Wednesday with the highest amounts expected near Paoli,IN decreasing to near one inch in the Lake Cumberland area. On Wednesday, the low-level jet will veer out of the Ohio Valley and weaken while large-scale subsidence builds into the region behind the first departing PV anomaly. However, by Wednesday evening the second PV anomaly and a strong cold front will sweep through the region.
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING WITH THE HIGH TIDES THROUGH TOMORROW. TO THE LOWER 70S NEAR THE COAST. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. SE WINDS WILL BECOME S AFTER MIDNIGHT AS FRONT OVER SE GA LIFTS NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. TOMORROW MORNINGS HIGH TIDE WILL BE THE HIGHER OF THE TWO TIDES AND WILL BE SIMILAR TO THIS MORNINGS HIGH TIDE WHEN ONLY MINOR FLOODING WAS REPORTED.
WITH THE WINDS SHIFTING TO A MORE SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION AND THEN SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES NORTH.
636 PM CDT TUE OCT 27 2015 THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY WORKING SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST AND WESTERN ZONES. TEMPERATURES MAY BE COOLER.
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TURNING THE WIND TO NORTHWESTERLY. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL STAY ABOVE FREEZING WITH THE MIXING FROM THE GUSTY WINDS ALONG WITH THE CLOUD BLANKET. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN BEHIND THE FAST MOVING COLD FRONT. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE 50S ACROSS MOST NEBRASKA ZONES TO THE LOWER 60S OVER NORTHERN KANSAS.
A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PUSH TOWARDS THE COAST BRINGING A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN TO THE AREA.
1046 PM EDT TUE OCT 27 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
1158 PM CDT TUE OCT 27 2015 LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN INTO ANOTHER LOW ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS WHERE A TIGHT CIRCULATION IS SHOWING UP ACROSS EASTERN WYOMING INTO SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA/EXTREME NORTHWEST NEBRASKA. A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES CONTINUE TO SHOW UP WITHIN THIS TROUGH AND WE CAN NOT RULE OUT A CLAP OR TWO OF THUNDER THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE TROUGH AXIS PROGRESSES EAST THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDS AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH. WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM EASTERN SASKATCHEWAN THROUGH THE WESTERN DAKOTAS AND INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT.
THIS IS DUE IN THANKS TO THE WARM FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE CWA THAT IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY WORK ITS WAY BACK TO THE NORTH OVERNIGHT. 75 /ISSUED 302 PM CDT TUE OCT 27 2015/ THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION OVER SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI WILL LIFT NORTHWARD TONIGHT AND PULL A WARM FRONT OVER SOUTHWEST ALABAMA NORTHWARD. THE COOL AIR MASS IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA WILL BE REPLACED BY A WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR MASS BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. GRADUAL CLEARING BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS THE FIRST OF 2 UPPER TROUGHS/WAVES MOVE THROUGH.
WEAKENING COLD FRONT/TROUGH CROSSING THE WEST COAST TOMORROW WILL ALLOW FOR MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS. /ISSUED 353 PM EDT TUE OCT 27 2015/ COASTAL FLOODING HAS CONTINUED TODAY WITH THIS MORNING'S HIGH TIDE AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE HIGH TIDE CYCLES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AN AREA OF RAIN IS MOVING ONSHORE THE GULF COAST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO SOUTH FL ON WEDNESDAY WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR ALL LOCALES. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN OVER THE WEEKEND WITH SOME DRIER AIR PUNCHING IN FROM THE EAST AS EASTERLY FLOW PICKS UP A BIT.
A LONG WAVE TROUGH OFF THE PACNW COAST WILL MOVE INLAND TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. THIS TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS INTO THE REGION.
The prominent features to note this period include an upper level trough extending into central Kansas moving east through the area tonight. With more breaks in the cloud cover this morning, high temperatures were adjusted slightly warmer in western half of the CWA than in the east, ranging from the low 60s to mid 50s. With the final push of the trough early tomorrow morning, skies will begin to clear and rain chances are expected to end. As for temperatures, should see temperatures make their way into the low 60s as mostly sunny skies will allow for strong diurnal heating. Reinforcing cold front passes Wednesday night with decent low level lift but limited moisture. Have lowered temps a bit but, bringing lows to near freezing.
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL BRING INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
800 PM EDT TUE OCT 27 2015 HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF TO THE EAST TONIGHT WITH A STRONG STORM SYSTEM BRINGING A RAINY WINDY DAY FOR WEDNESDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP SE ACROSS OK AND INTO N TX.
SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE CASCADES.
ALTHOUGH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY WEAK, THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN THE VICINITY OF THE LEE SIDE TROUGH IN EASTERN COLORADO AS LOWER/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN. VERY MILD TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED TONIGHT AS A PREVAILING SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO REINFORCE THE WARMER AIR MASS SETTLED ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF WESTERN KANSAS.
FORECAST LOWS LOOK OK BUT NOT SURE GREAT FALLS WILL GET TO A LOW IN THE LOW 50S.
/ISSUED 256 PM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015/ THE CWA REMAINS ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. A FEW SPOTS WILL SEE HEAT INDICES TOMORROW RISE INTO THE LOW 100S.
BUT THE LOW LEVEL FLOW IS QUITE WEAK AS WELL. LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSHING EAST ACROSS NORTHWESTERN US WILL PUSH RIDGE.
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA UNDER PARTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS WERE IN THE LOWER 80S. A WARM FRONT MOVING INTO SOUTHERN MN/CENTRAL IA AND PUSH OF 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT EXPECTED TO FIRE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS MAINLY SOUTHWEST OF I-94. THIS WILL PRODUCE HEAT INDICES IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 90S. WILL SEE THE WARM FRONT CONTINUE TO PUSH NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA WITH OUR AREA ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF FAIRLY STRONG 925-850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT.
907 PM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015 A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY WORK ACROSS THE STATE TONIGHT. THEN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK AS THE TEMPERATURE AND HUMIDITY INCREASE.
00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS THIS EVENING PLACES AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE MID SOUTH REMAINS ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AXIS WITH RAIN FREE CONDITIONS OCCURING THIS EVENING. DEWPOINTS HAVE INCREASED IN LOCATIONS SUCH AS WALNUT RIDGE AND BLYTHEVILLE DUE TO THE CONVECTION. AS LINGERING CLOUD COVER THINS OUT IT MAY LEAD TO HEAT INDICES REACHING BACK ABOVE CRITERIA AROUND 5 OR 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING DESPITE TEMPERATURES BEING A LITTLE COOLER.
1206 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2015 A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY.
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS UNDER A STUBBORN MIDLEVEL RIDGE. MOISTURE DOES CONTINUE TO RESIDE IN THE LOWEST LEVELS. WARMER OVERNIGHT TEMPS ARE IN STORE /MID- UPPER 70S/ ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COASTAL REGION WITH TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S. AND PERSISTENT LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS WILL CONTINUE A BREEZY ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL ALSO BE ON THE HIGHER SIDE WITH A HEAT ADVISORY CONTINUING FOR MOST LOCATIONS THIS LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
LATEST IR DEPICTS AN EAST TO WEST MID AND UPPER ANTICYCLONE ORIENTED FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EASTWARD TO ALABAMA. A POSITIVELY TILTED TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH AXIS IS ORIENTED FROM THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS TO ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA DOWN TO GUATEMALA. AT THE SURFACE AND IN THE LOWER TO MID LEVELS. A TROUGH IS EVIDENT JUST WEST OF WEST CENTRAL AND THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA PENINSULA. CLOSER TO THE TROUGH. GRADUALLY PINCHING OFF THE MONSOON LIKE TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN IMPACTING KEYS WEATHER. BUT GIVEN THE BREAKDOWN OF THE LOWER TO MIDDLE LEVEL TROUGH OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY.
THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WATER VAPOR SHOWS LARGE UPPER LOW PUSHING INTO THE PAC NW. LOW IS LOCATED ALONG THE MT/ND BORDER WITH TROF EXTENDING SWD THROUGH THE NEB PANHANDLE. AND VIS/RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS DEVELOPING CU/SCT TSTMS ALONG THE TROF OVER THE NEB PANHANDLE. ALONG THE SFC TROF. UPPER LOW WILL SHIFT QUICKLY EWD INTO WRN MT BY LATE AFTN. SFC TROF WILL DEEPEN OVER ERN WY/ERN MT. WITH A DEEPLY MIXED AMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE TROF AND PLUMMETING DEWPOINTS. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT OVER WRN SD FOR ISOLD-SCT TSRA TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTN ALONG THE SFC TROF.
COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA AS EXPECTED. DEEP COOL UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY ALONG THE NW COAST WILL SWING INLAND AND THROUGH OUR CWA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL COME THROUGH OREGON ZONES THIS EVENING AND IDAHO ZONES OVERNIGHT. 50S IN THE HIGHER CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS.
950 PM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015 A WEAK COLD FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTHEAST TONIGHT.
/ISSUED 413 PM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015/ HEAVY RAIN THREAT WILL CONTINUE FOR COASTAL COLLIER, WITH TRAINING AND POSSIBLE REDEVELOPMENT OF SOME CONVECTION TONIGHT IN THE GULF, WITH LOW PRESSURE AND MIDLEVEL DISTURBANCE NEARBY. INTO THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK, HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AXIS WILL LIFT NORTH SLOWLY THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA, AND THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NOW JUST WEST OF TAMPA WILL WEAKEN AS IT DRIFTS NORTH INTO THE BIG BEND OF FLORIDA.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO DROP INTO THE REGION.
1151 PM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015 THE LOW LEVELS HAVE DRIED OUT TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT WILL PRODUCE MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND VERY LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE IN THE LOWER 70S. WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST AND A WEAK RESIDUAL BOUNDARY IN OR CLOSE TO THE CWA.
716 PM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015 A WEAK COLD FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTHEAST TONIGHT.
Precipitable water values will pool around two inches and the low levels will become unstable enough to support convection. With the absence of a strong trigger and with the upper ridge building in, will keep PoPs low.
AS A LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS ERN MT SWD INTO WRN SD AND ERN WY. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES AND THEN ALONG THE US/CANADA BORDER. AHEAD OF A THE SYSTEM A STRONG THERMAL RIDGE/ELEVATED MIXED LAYER WILL DEVELOP.
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S IN SOUTHERN MICHIGAN TO AROUND 70 NEAR THE OHIO RIVER.
MODELS CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND SE STATES. UPPER TROUGH IS FORECASTED SHIFT INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND IS EXPECTED TO SUPPRESS THE RIDGE.
BY EARLY MORNING ONSHORE FLOW WILL ENHANCE COASTAL TROUGH AND BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM SOUTHERNMOST GA THROUGH CENTRAL FL.
ADK HIGH PRESSURE IS MAINTAINING ITS HOLD ON THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES.
1136 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015 AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO IS POSSIBLE IN OUR SOUTH CENTRAL SD ZONES THIS EVENING AS THE LOW LEVEL JET RETURNS A BIT COUPLED WITH MAX DAYTIME HEATING TRIGGERING THE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE. THEY SHOULD PROG EASTWARD TOWARD THE I 29 CORRIDOR BY MIDDAY BEFORE DISSIPATING EAST OF I 29 WHERE THE AIR MASS IS MORE UNSTABLE INFLUENCED BY HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES. PERHAPS A FEW STORMS WILL POP IN THE LATE AFTERNOON IN OUR FAR WESTERN ZONES JUST AHEAD OF THE WELL ADVERTISED UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. HEDGED WITH THE COOLER GUIDANCE READINGS WHICH STILL GIVES LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
INDICES CONTINUE IN THE 105 TO 110 RANGE AS DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID 70S ALONG THE MS RIVER. MOS AND THE MODEL BLENDS CONTINUE TO HAVE A HARD TIME WITH THE DRIER AIR OVER THE EAST AS THEY CONTINUE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S AGAIN TOMORROW. GFS RAW/BUFR DATA ON THE OTHER HAND ARE SHOWING WELL MIXED OUT LOWER LEVELS WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S WHICH IS CLOSER TO REALITY. BUT RIDGE CONTINUES TO DAMPEN THEM AS THEY MOVE ACROSS. AS RIDGE FLATTENS AND SHIFTS TO THE WEST.
THE BMX SOUNDING REVEALED A WARMER LAYER IN THE 500-600 MB RANGE WHICH MAY HAVE LIMITED UPDRAFT DEPTH INTO THE ICE GROWTH REGION.
958 PM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015 A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY.
800 PM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE MID WEEK. THE HIGH RESOLUTION HRRR MODEL SHOWS THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND WILL SHOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE WATERS AND PERHAPS BRIEFLY SKIRTING THE BEACHES THROUGH DAYBREAK. ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MODIFY THE MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS. WITH MOISTENING IN THE LOW LEVELS CONTINUING. WE ARE FORECASTING LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. WEAK AMORPHOUS PRESSURE PATTERN WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A STALLED FRONT POSITIONED WELL OFFSHORE AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE NORTH AND EAST. DEEP LAYER FLOW WILL BE NORTHWESTERLY AS AN UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY SWINGS OFF EASTERN CONUS WHILE FLOW NEAR THE SURFACE STAYS GENERALLY EASTERLY.
THE UPPER RIDGE IS TAKING A SLIGHT JOG TO THE EAST TODAY AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO TOMORROW. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO A DEEP TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. DESPITE THE MOVEMENT OF THE RIDGE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE JUST A TOUCH COOLER TOMORROW DUE TO A SLIGHT DECREASE IN HEIGHTS/THICKNESS VALUES. HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST/NORTHEAST TO OVER THE OZARKS AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ACROSS THE CANADA/U.
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY DISPLAYED AN UPPER- LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING SE ACROSS WASHINGTON STATE AND OREGON. AND AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. THE TROUGH WILL KEEP THE WEATHER COOLER THAN NORMAL ON MONDAY AND DRY. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING INLAND THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL CONTINUE BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS. AND SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND WESTWARD FROM THE GREAT PLAINS INTO THE GREAT BASIN. CREATING WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS AS MONSOONAL FLOW RETURNS. BASICALLY IT IS THE HIGH PW VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1.
AN MCS WHICH DEVELOPED LATE LAST NIGHT IN NORTHERN SONORA MADE QUITE AN IMPRESSIVE JOURNEY TODAY AROUND THE WESTERN FLANK OF AN UPPER LOW.
HIGH PRESSURE IS MAINTAINING ITS HOLD ON THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES.
NOT UNEXPECTEDLY CONVECTING FIRING JUST BEHIND THE TROUGH AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO SO INTO THE EVENING AS BOUNDARY SLIDES SLOWLY EAST. WILL MAINTAIN THE LOW POP IN AREAS JUST NORTHWEST OF DEVILS LAKE THRU MID EVENING PER 1 PM UPDATE. SPC THINKING SVR STORMS FIRING ALONG THE LOW AND WARM FRONT MID AFTN MONDAY AND THEN OVER TIME ORGANIZING AND SPREADING EAST AS A SQUALL LINE INTO ERN ND BUT MOST LIKELY MID TO LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INTO SE SASK AND MANITOBA TUES-TUES NIGHT PERIOD.
A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED BY MID WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS. CENTRAL CALIFORNIA'S WEATHER CONTINUES TO BE INFLUENCED BY AN UPPER TROUGH IMPACTING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND MUCH OF CALIFORNIA. WITH SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND FOOTHILL LOCATIONS WARMING INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S WHILE THE DESERT WARMED TO THE MID TO UPPER 90S. LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST FOR MONDAY AS THE AREA REMAINS UNDER AN UPPER TROUGH.
715 PM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015 A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY.
735 PM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015 A DRY ATMOSPHERE AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL ENSURE DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT.
STRONG DIABATIC WARMING IS DESTABILIZING THE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS THE EASTERN PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON IN THE VICINITY OF A LEE THERMAL TROUGH. THE LATEST VIS SATELLITE INDICATES A STEADY LINE OF CU DEVELOPING ALONG THE THERMAL TROUGH. A LEE TROUGH AND/OR STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND FAVORED RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER JET TO WESTERN NEBRASKA. THIS WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR STORMS AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE FA.
602 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015 UPPER HIGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER TX THIS TAF PD.
WITH A STRONG MID LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED OVER NORTHWEST TEXAS AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA. AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL AND WEST GULF. WITH HIGH TEMPS FROM THE LOWER 90S ALONG THE COAST. CONVECTIVE OUT FLOW ORIGINATING FROM THE NORTHEAST GULF AND MOVING WEST OR SOUTH WEST OVER THE GULF LOOKS LIKE IT WILL WEAKEN MOVING INTO THE RIDGE BUT CAN'T RULE OUT A FEW EXTRA CLOUDS OR EVEN SHOWERS TRACKING INTO THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS OVERNIGHT.
1241 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2015 A FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION THROUGH MID WEEK WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA.
A low pressure system will move over the area tonight and Monday bringing showers and thunderstorms.
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ONCE AGAIN FORMED ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF UPPER RIDGE THIS AFTERNOON AND THESE SHOULD DRIFT EAST REACHING THE NORTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLE AND THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
THERE WILL BE DRIER AND EVEN WARMER AIR MOVING FROM THE WEST AS UPPER TROF OVER NORTHERN ROCKIES INCREASES THE FLOW FROM THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE EVEN WARMER ON THE PLAINS WITH READINGS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S. PLACEMENT OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND MOISTURE INFLUX WILL BE THE MAIN PLAYERS IN THE COMING WEEK.
1039 PM MDT SUN JUL 26 2015 MOISTURE WORKING AROUND HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON AND WEAK WAVES EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW WILL KEEP SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. ANY LINGERING MOISTURE ON MONDAY WILL BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
/00Z TAFS/ NO REAL CONCERNS FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD WITH UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING IN CONTROL ACROSS THE REGION. THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE AXIS CENTERED OVER NW TX EXTENDS MAINLY ALONG A W-E AXIS ALONG THE RED RIVER INTO ARKANSAS. A SECONDARY RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SOUTH OVER SOUTH TX AND IS PREVENTING DEEP POCKETS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM DEVELOPING INTO SHOWERS.
AN UPPER TROUGH WAS DEEPENING ALONG THE WASHINGTON/OREGON COAST AT THE PRESENT TIME.
SOME SCATTERED SHOWER/TSTORM ACTIVITY LINGERED INTO THE EVENING HOURS WITH THE HELP OF SOME RIDGE TOP ENHANCEMENT AND CELL/BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS. CLOUD COVER SHOULD DECREASE AS WELL WITH WEAK RIDGING.
/ISSUED 346 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015/ A DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RESIDE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON WITH MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS FOR EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. DAYTIME HEATING BEING LIFTED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS OF FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA HAS ALLOWED FOR A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP.
NOW INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. A LEE TROUGH/THERMAL AXIS WAS LOCATED OVER EAST COLORADO. THIS TROUGH SHOULD BE MUCH FARTHER NORTH. THE UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES MONDAY NIGHT MOVES EAST OF THE ROCKIES AND ALONG THE U.