Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Temperature moderation is underway as southwest flow on the western flank of a high-amplitude Ern CONUS ridge is advecting warmth and upr lvl moisture over the Upper OH Valley in response to a deepening Plains trough. By tonight, cutoff, southern stream upper low pressure is forecast just west of the MO /MS-junction with a broad swath of warm, moist advection on its van blanketing the OH Valley and Great Lakes. initiation of snow, or a rain/snow mix, which may persist over the higher elevations for a couple hours given dynamic cooling via upslope. Either way, widespread rain can be expected with model-world agreeing on rapid saturation over the area as the systems "trowal" is shoved over the region with the advance of the low through Friday.
429 AM CST Thu Jan 23 2020 Expect showers to continue through most of the day today as a broad trough currently over the Plains pushes its way towards the region. The trough will dig southeastward towards the coast today, with an upper-level low developing over Kansas. By morning, the risk for winter precipitation will end as warmer air finally takes over. Temperatures today should generally be in the lower 40s. However, as the low pushes into the Ohio River valley, a mid-level dry slot will rotate into the area. Temperatures tonight into Friday morning will generally stay above freezing with areas to the north approaching freezing. Friday will see a warming trend, with highs mainly in the lower 40s across our northern portion, and upper 40s to lower 50s south of I-40.
High pressure aloft will shift east across the Great Basin and bring more stable conditions to the area through Thursday night. A fast-moving trough will impact northern Utah and southwest Wyoming Friday, with high pressure aloft retuning for the weekend. High pressure aloft will shift east across the Great Basin and bring more stable conditions to the area through tonight. A fast-moving trough will impact northern Utah and southwest Wyoming Friday, with high pressure aloft retuning for the weekend.
337 AM CST Thu Jan 23 2020 Cold front is currently working it ways south through the Texas Panhandle this morning. This cold front will also allow slightly cooler air to settle into the region leading to high temperatures about 5-10 degrees below what was observed yesterday.
Calm winds aloft and a ridge of high pressure overhead, leads to low confidence of cloud cover breaking over the Grand Valley either. Snows will taper off overnight as the ridge axis slides overhead. Another transitory ridge will then build over the region, keeping the area under dry and calm weather for the weekend.
/issued 429 AM CST Thu Jan 23 2020/ Expect showers to continue through most of the day today as a broad trough currently over the Plains pushes its way towards the region. The trough will dig southeastward towards the coast today, with an upper-level low developing over Kansas. By morning, the risk for winter precipitation will end as warmer air finally takes over. Temperatures today should generally be in the lower 40s. However, as the low pushes into the Ohio River valley, a mid-level dry slot will rotate into the area. Temperatures tonight into Friday morning will generally stay above freezing with areas to the north approaching freezing. Friday will see a warming trend, with highs mainly in the lower 40s across our northern portion, and upper 40s to lower 50s south of I-40.
N/NW winds near 11 kts behind a cold front will become light and variable this evening. /issued 337 AM CST Thu Jan 23 2020/ Cold front is currently working it ways south through the Texas Panhandle this morning. This cold front will also allow slightly cooler air to settle into the region leading to high temperatures about 5-10 degrees below what was observed yesterday.
Lingering snow, low clouds, and patchy freezing fog will present the primary forecast challenges for this morning. Look for upper ridging to set up across the region, extending into the Northern High Plains on Friday. Patchy freezing fog through 18Z may also lead to lower visibility at times.
Current temperatures are running roughly 20 degrees warmer than this time yesterday, and the airmass continues to modify with a deep layer of onshore flow. Once conditions begin to improve late this morning, temperatures should warm up nicely with high temperatures still reaching the low 70s despite quite a bit of cloud cover.
325 AM MST Thu Jan 23 2020 High temperatures will climb the rest of the week as high pressure tracks across the region. This will lead to somewhat cooler temperatures, but still remaining above seasonal normals. In addition, there will be a chance of precipitation over the higher terrain of south-central Arizona. High amplitude ridging has set up across much of the Western U. For the most part, upper level ridging will dominate across the Southwestern U.
High temperatures will climb the rest of the week as high pressure tracks across the region. This will lead to somewhat cooler temperatures, but still remaining above seasonal normals. In addition, there will be a chance of precipitation over the higher terrain of south-central Arizona. High amplitude ridging has set up across much of the Western U. For the most part, upper level ridging will dominate across the Southwestern U.
Rain and snow are falling over the northwestern half of the CWA as a cold front slips from west to east.
The primary impact expected today will be a result of temperatures dropping below freezing this morning with wet roads from recent drizzle, light snow, and/or snowmelt. This has the potential to create slippery conditions on bridges, elevated surfaces, and/or untreated surfaces, effecting the morning commute. As colder air moves in this morning, models suggest primarily snow as the precipitation type, but there is a mid level warmer and dry layer that will need to saturate so cannot rule out brief drizzle. Surface temperatures should remain below freezing but mid/lower level temperatures warmer than -10C. Depending on how quickly drier mid level air entrains into the region, a short lived return to freezing drizzle remains possible late tonight.
253 AM MST Thu Jan 23 2020 An upper level low will intensify over the central plains today leaving nrn Co in northwest flow aloft. Highs today will be cooler as readings drop back into the 40's over nern CO. Highs should be able to push into the lower 50s across most of the plains. The warm advection and slight ridging/drying will also bring an end to any lingering snow showers in the high country before noon.
423 AM MST Thu Jan 23 2020 Water vapor shows upper trof axis over western portions of the northern plains, with upper ridge building through the western CONUS. Light snow associated with upper trof continues over our eastern zones early this morning. Western CONUS ridge will build eastward through the weekend, bringing mainly dry and warming conditions.
This area is just of the cooler and drier side of an inverted trough. Across the southern valley and west central MN weak synoptic lift aloft combined with blyr saturation will bring some light snow and possibly freezing drizzle, though looking less likely than before, depending on how much dry air works into the area on NE winds.
635 AM CST Thu Jan 23 2020 Went ahead and removed any freezing drizzle mention this morning as reports from west central Minnesota is fine snow grains which are being interpreted on AWOS as fog with visibility in the 3 to 5 mile range. This area is just of the cooler and drier side of an inverted trough. Across the southern valley and west central MN weak synoptic lift aloft combined with blyr saturation will bring some light snow and possibly freezing drizzle, though looking less likely than before, depending on how much dry air works into the area on NE winds.
Then, light wind tonight, under a cloudless sky, will help produce lows ranging from around freezing to the mid 30s.
High pressure aloft will shift east across the Great Basin and bring more stable conditions to the area through tonight. A fast-moving trough will impact northern Utah and southwest Wyoming Friday, with high pressure aloft retuning for the weekend.
As was the trend earlier this month, these pesky inversions look to persist through the short term period as a weak ridge of high pressure slides overhead tonight.
1042 AM CST Thu Jan 23 2020 Have had a few freezing drizzle reports in the Grand Forks to Grand Forks Air Force Base area this morning. Went ahead and removed any freezing drizzle mention this morning as reports from west central Minnesota is fine snow grains which are being interpreted on AWOS as fog with visibility in the 3 to 5 mile range. This area is just of the cooler and drier side of an inverted trough. Across the southern valley and west central MN weak synoptic lift aloft combined with blyr saturation will bring some light snow and possibly freezing drizzle, though looking less likely than before, depending on how much dry air works into the area on NE winds.
An inverted trough will stay positioned over our area tonight into Friday, which will keep on and off light precipitation chances present through the short term period. Some loss of in-cloud ice possible mainly through the remainder of this afternoon, which could lead to light drizzle or freezing drizzle in some areas (mainly south). Models and CAMs then paint a frontogenetic band of snow forming in the deformation zone of the aforementioned closed low early Friday morning.
258 PM CST Thu Jan 23 2020 Rain will gradually shift east through the evening hours as a weak trough moves through the Mid-South. Behind the trough, an upper level low will move into the region and will bring a second round of rain beginning late tonight into the day on Friday.
Widespread showers will continue through the evening and into the early part of Friday morning, before rain tapers off with the passage of the cold front. The upper low will move just to the north of the area, with some moisture wrapping around its western and southern periphery.
1027 AM EST Thu Jan 23 2020 High pressure will continue to move offshore throughout today. Low pressure will move into the region tomorrow, before slowly moving northeastward into New England during the second half of the weekend.
1038 AM MST Thu Jan 23 2020 Water vapor shows upper trof axis over western portions of the northern plains, with upper ridge building through the western CONUS. Light snow associated with upper trof continues over our eastern zones early this morning. Western CONUS ridge will build eastward through the weekend, bringing mainly dry and warming conditions.
Lingering freezing fog and low clouds, especially over central and eastern portions of the CWA should eventually clear out later this morning. Lingering snow, low clouds, and patchy freezing fog will present the primary forecast challenges for this morning. Look for upper ridging to set up across the region, extending into the Northern High Plains on Friday. Maliawco Synopsis: A diminishing trough of low pressure moves east slowly today with skies gradually clearing from the west. Flight conditions: Ranging from VFR to VLIFR through this morning with low clouds and some lingering freezing fog for some locations.
124 PM EST Thu Jan 23 2020 A low pressure system will begin to bring precipitation to the region beginning late today as rain.
Isolated to scattered snow showers will continue in the northern mountains today, and there are areas of fog in the Lower Treasure Valley this morning that will end by noon. VFR with areas of MVFR in low clouds and fog obscuring mtns generally across eastern Oregon, the Lower Treasure Valley,and the KMYL region this morning.
Quiet weather in the short term as high pressure builds into the region. High pressure drifts off to the east late in the day Friday and Friday night, turning winds back off the Gulf and beginning to build moisture once again.
1032 AM CST Thu Jan 23 2020 The biggest change/addition to the short term forecast is the continued wintry precipitation across the higher elevations of northwest Arkansas through at least noon. As a result of sub freezing temperatures and light precipitation being depicted on radar (in the form of drizzle and/or rain), opted to extend the Winter Weather Advisory until noon today for portions of northwest Arkansas. It is reasonable to believe that temps will rise just above freezing and the majority of the precipitation will exit the area by noon. If trends continue, the sun may peak out this afternoon allowing for temperatures to climb higher than currently forecast before skies become overcast once again as a short wave and closed low, currently located over central Kansas, dives into the area later today.
Given surface temperatures above freezing, don't expect any impact from this drizzle. High pressure aloft will shift east across the Great Basin and bring more stable conditions to the area through Thursday night. A fast-moving trough will impact northern Utah and southwest Wyoming Friday, with high pressure aloft retuning for the weekend.
118 PM CST Thu Jan 23 2020 Light snow will gradually exit to the east tonight as high pressure dips into central SD.
230 PM CST Thu Jan 23 2020 An upper level low is located across SERN KS and wrap around precipitation (mostly virga) has continued to affect our northeastern zones. This low will continue to move east allowing for drier air to continue to filter in via northwesterly flow aloft.
205 PM EST Thu Jan 23 2020 The upper ridge has slipped off the eastern seaboard, which puts Florida in a more warm and moist air mass on the back side of this ridge. This pattern will hold over the area through Friday before being replaced by another upper low and trough that is currently located over Kansas. Models currently have this low and trough slowly moving east just south of the Great lakes through the weekend and exiting the northeast U.
/issued 337 AM CST Thu Jan 23 2020/ Cold front is currently working it ways south through the Texas Panhandle this morning. This cold front will also allow slightly cooler air to settle into the region leading to high temperatures about 5-10 degrees below what was observed yesterday.
Expect NE winds around 10-12kt sustained through the afternoon as a cold front moves through the region. During this time a couple of upper level troughs will drop cold fronts into the region. The first cold front will move through the forecast area today but temperatures will still remain at or slightly above normal.
Sharply drier mid and upper level moisture has advected over the region as flow has become westerly with the approach of the associated trof. Drier mid level air near the center of the low will result in more isolated showers ivo BPT and LCH this morning until a cold front sweeps through the area from west to east late this morning through early afternoon. Some stronger convective activity noted offshore in the warmer and moister airmass south of this boundary. Back edge of the heaviest precipitation working towards the Sabine river currently, though a few lingering showers will be possible until cold frontal passage.
A few spots in the Hill Country may approach freezing, especially in low-lying areas where winds will be calm.
Temperatures are already much warmer than 24 hours ago and will continue to warm up into the low to mid 70's this afternoon. High pressure has moved over the New England states and continues to ridge south-southwest along the eastern seaboard. A cold front moves through the coastal waters on Friday producing a chance of showers.
243 PM CST Thu Jan 23 2020 Current satellite analysis plotted with the RAP 500 mb heights depicts agreement in the development of an H5 closed low over central Kansas that is strengthening. Going down to 700 mbs the winds speeds are reaching 50 kts up stream of the low. Temperatures will reach a high in the low 50s today before dropping to the 20s overnight.
Within the flow is an upper level short wave trough. Ahead of the trough light precipitation is falling. Behind the trough the subsidence is causing a clear sky. Today the short wave trough will be moving through the northeast part of the forecast area this morning. The trough has shifted a bit further east, and as such the precipitation will be east of the forecast area this morning. Radiational cooling will cause the lows to be a few degrees cooler than last night. Friday winds will be light as an 850 mb short wave ridge moves over the forecast area. In addition warmer air will move in with the ridge. This warmer air will mainly be over the western half of the forecast area. Friday night WAA will continue over the forecast area, causing lows to be a few degrees warmer than tonight.
The High Wind warning for tonight remains on track as a low-level jet strengthens perpendicular to the mountains. With the low level jet strengthening, expect LLWS to develop later in the period so will include at all sites. A deepening upper low will dive into the mid Mississippi Valley by early Friday before lifting slowly northeast. A cold front will push through our area during Friday.
A mid-level ridge will continue to build across the western CONUS, thus causing energy to dig southeast over the central CONUS through Friday. A shear axis over the western Dakotas will continue to support some light pcpn this morning, but much of that pcpn will gradually dry up as the energy/jet shifts south and forms an upper low over the lower Ohio River valley. Friday looks dry as ridging aloft starts to re-assert itself over the Northern Plains.
The last couple of systems and cold fronts have been quite the wind producers with arctic cold air behind them, but this one definitely has a modified airmass behind it.
252 PM CST Thu Jan 23 2020 Upper level trough axis continues to sit overhead as of mid afternoon with the mid level cut off low slowly sinking south. Forecast soundings continue to indicate a bit of a dry and warm layer around the 6-7 kft range, which depending on how saturated it is, has kept precipitation type flipping between light snow and freezing drizzle. While this layer does appear to saturate a bit by later this afternoon, we begin to loose saturation from aloft by this evening, keeping the potential for periods of light freezing drizzle within the broader light snow. Boundary layer moisture remains fairly high into the overnight hours, particularly in SW MN along the Buffalo Ridge. This area is also highlighted by the highest SREF probabilities with a chance for localized dense fog to return.
250 PM EST Thu Jan 23 2020 High pressure will continue to move offshore through tonight.
From synopsis, a high pressure ridge will extend from New England down the U.
344 PM EST Thu Jan 23 2020 Water vapor imagery highlights a negatively tilted trough complex scouring lower heights across the northwestern Gulf of Mexico. A cold front stretches southwest from weak low pressure centered over Louisiana. High pressure prevails across the Eastern Seaboard. Temperatures across the island chain are in the lower 70s with dew points in the lower 60s. The cooler waters north of the island chain, in conjunction with dew points in the lower 60s, will favor sea fog and stratus development late tonight. Recent SPORT SST imagery overestimated the temperatures across Florida Bay where we have National Park Gauges that confirm SSTs in the upper 50s, although they likely will recover this afternoon into the lower 60s.
This is in response to a deepening Plains closed low. By tonight, cutoff, southern stream upper low pressure is forecast just west of the MO /MS-junction with a broad swath of warm, moist advection on its van blanketing the OH Valley and Great Lakes. initiation of snow, or a rain/snow mix, which may persist over the higher elevations for a couple hours given dynamic cooling via upslope. The exception would be for the eastern ridges, where deterministic models suggest the presence of strong wind beneath the inversion. Otherwise, widespread rain can be expected with model-world agreeing on rapid saturation over the area as the systems "trowal" is shoved over the region with the advance of the low through Friday.
Northwest winds and drier/cooler conditions will move across the area in wake of the departing system along with decreasing cloud cover and overnight lows in the 30s. Late tonight into Friday morning, a closed low over the Central Plains will dive southeastward through Southern Missouri/Northern Arkansas. Some light wrap around precip from the low could make it into our northern most counties during the predawn hours, but confidence is low at this time as current thinking is that the low will be too far north and the wrap around precip will stay north of our region. As the low continues to move eastward toward the Ohio Valley on Friday, the trailing associated cold front will push through our region.
These clouds are associated with an upper level low over Kansas which will drop southward into northeastern Oklahoma this evening. Portions of north-central Oklahoma will see chances for showers increase late this afternoon into the evening as wraparound moisture associated with the low glances our area. The upper low and associated shower activity quickly moves eastward overnight, with precipitation chances decreasing by midnight. Lows tonight will range from the mid 20s across northwestern Oklahoma to the low to mid 30s across southern Oklahoma and adjacent western north Texas. High tomorrow will reach the 50s for most of the region, with 40s for highs across north-central and northeastern Oklahoma, closer to the departing upper low. Ware (Friday night through next Friday) As the upper low departs, temperatures will rebound over the weekend.
Clouds are more expansive just to the east of the area where a cold front is currently draped across Central Nebraska and North Central Kansas. With a closed low over Eastern Nebraska and a tight gradient over the Tri-State area this afternoon, winds will remain gusty. A ridge over the Western CONUS will nose into the Central High Plains on Friday with northwest flow aloft over the Tri-State area. Temperatures will range from the low 40s toward Norton to the low 50s from Yuma to Russell Springs and westward. Temperatures were lowered a little in the eastern part of the CWA over concerns that the ridge would not make it as far into the area as previously thought.
354 PM EST Thu Jan 23 2020 A cold front will approach the region from the northwest this evening and will cross the area tonight into Friday morning.
218 PM CST Thu Jan 23 2020 A nearly stationary mid level trough remains centered over the western Dakotas this afternoon. A baroclinic zone underneath the trough extends down to the surface, with the cooler air mass to the east. The mid level trough and associated low level baroclinic zone are forecast to move very slowly eastward tonight. The mid level trough will finally move out Friday as the next Pacific wave quickly moves across the northwest CONUS. The upper ridge and associated westerly downslope flow in the low levels will likely not be able to completely erode the cooler surface air mass during the day though, limiting highs to the 20s across central and eastern North Dakota.
Light winds tonight will allow temperatures to drop to near freezing across most areas.
These clouds are associated with an upper level low over Kansas which will drop southward into northeastern Oklahoma this evening. Portions of north-central Oklahoma will see chances for showers increase late this afternoon into the evening as wraparound moisture associated with the low glances our area. The upper low and associated shower activity quickly moves eastward overnight, with precipitation chances decreasing by midnight. Lows tonight will range from the mid 20s across northwestern Oklahoma to the low to mid 30s across southern Oklahoma and adjacent western north Texas. High tomorrow will reach the 50s for most of the region, with 40s for highs across north-central and northeastern Oklahoma, closer to the departing upper low.