Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Nebraska is located between two systems right now with the previous low pressure system centered over Manitoba, leaving the state in northwesterly flow, and the next low pressure system centered over British Columbia, with a cold front drooping across the Dakotas. Tonight, there is some light upper level ridging over Nebraska, keeping skies clear and dry via subsidence.
157 PM MDT Tue May 25 2021 Cyclonic flow lingering over our eastern areas yet thanks to Upper Low over the Canadian prairies slowly sliding east. In the meantime, upper trough pushing onto the Pacific NW coast will push east into the inner Rockies tonight. Temperatures will support snow above 8000 feet with several inches possible for the highest elevations of the Beartooth/Absaroka mountains. The upper trough itself will track across our CWA Wednesday with the best dynamics right from Billings eastward during peak heating.
More widespread and potentially severe thunderstorms are possible Wednesday with a passing cold front. Otherwise, warm advection and ridging will create dry and unseasonably warm temperature today, with readings up to 15 degrees above average. Continued warm advection in SW flow will keep the low temperature above seasonal averages. Though a pre- frontal trough may promote an isolated storm during the morning, convection should peak during the late afternoon along and just sfc cold front.
241 PM CDT Tue May 25 2021 High pressure has continued to promote tranquil weather across the Tennessee Valley this afternoon, with partly cloudy conditions prevailing. It's been the hottest day of the year so far with most valley locations making it into the lower 90s. The center of the high pressure ridge will slowly sink to the southeast, becoming centered across the western Florida Panhandle on Wednesday.
A weak upper-trough sweeping east within near zonal flow across the Red River Valley of north Texas into Arkansas will support scattered convection overnight mainly north of Interstate 20. On Wednesday morning, convection to become more widespread across southern Arkansas into North Louisiana as upper-trough interacts with lingering boundary that swept across the region today.
Another weak trough will dig over the weekend, but this will only have minor impacts to the overall weather. The latest ensemble models show the low to gradually weaken and move east as high pressure develop over the eastern Pacific.
213 PM MDT Tue May 25 2021 Scattered showers and a few isolated thunderstorms are possible through this evening before a more widespread area of rain develops and lifts north across the area late tonight through Wednesday as another low pressure system moves across the Northern Rockies and Montana.
Tomorrow looks to dry out as upper level ridging sets up over our area.
Day-to-day warming is forecast from today to Wednesday in response to ridging aloft.
A high pressure centered in the Western Atlantic off the southeast coast will be the main influence of our weather overnight tonight, keeping rain chances near nil. The aforementioned area of high pressure will continue to dominate the region through the end of the week. As this high pressure elongates and moves southward, the gradient will relax and winds will collapse.
Overnight low temperatures will be a few degrees warmer than what we've seen the past few nights but still slightly below seasonal norms for late May. However, we are still expecting max temps to reach the lower to mid 90s across the inland areas and mid to upper 80s near the coast.
1113 AM MDT Tue May 25 2021 Water vapor shows upper low over southern SASK, with next upper low offshore the Pac NW and weak ridging in between. Upper low moves into the Northern Rockies on Wednesday, with deepening surface over eastern WY. Corridor of 1000-2000J/kg MLCAPE expected to develop northward into northeast WY and southwest SD, with warm front draped across the Black Hills eastward along I-90 (and good chance for low stratus north of the warm front).
Upper lvl ridge begins to slowly shift east allowing southwesterly flow aloft to bring moisture into the region. Given the lack of larger scale forcing, expect another dry day across most locations, although differential heating along the high terrain may be enough for some isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon. Diegan Chattanooga Airport, TN 67 92 67 92 70 / 0 10 10 30 20 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 66 90 66 89 68 / 10 10 20 30 30 Oak Ridge, TN 66 90 65 89 67 / 10 20 20 30 30 Tri Cities Airport, TN 62 88 63 87 64 / 10 20 30 30 30.
The temperature at Tallahasse is already 84 degrees at 11 am and looking for highs around the region in the lower to mid 90s inland areas and mid to upper 80s along the coast.
Upper level trough moving through the area today keeping showers in the forecast. A weak upper level ridge will bring a brief dry period tonight and Wednesday.
Differential heating west of the rain areas should send a brief wave NW toward the SAT area, but otherwise the rain chances on the lower part of the I-35 corridor are on their way down.
In the low levels cooler air will continue to filter south through tonight which should keep northerly flow from completely dropping off, likely averaging about 5 to 15 mph through the night. As this low pressure to the north moves into northern MN a ridge of high pressure will move across the Northern Plains and keep dry conditions in place for most of the area on Wednesday.
307 PM CDT Tue May 25 2021 An approaching upper level wave and weak surface cold front, which have produced a isolated showers across our area today, will move across the middle Mississippi and lower Ohio valleys tonight. By late Wednesday, the upper wave will move east of the PAH forecast area, but the weak cold front will continue sinking south. The dry conditions will be brief as models show a stronger cold front and deeper upper level wave approaching from the west/northwest.
Overall, we will keep the highest PoPs across western and southern portions of Oklahoma, into western north Texas, tonight and tomorrow.
219 PM CDT Tue May 25 2021 As an upper low pushes south and east this afternoon across ND, winds have increased ahead of it. Wednesday will see some brief upper ridging that will allow temps to rebound into the 60s.
More widespread, and potentially severe, thunderstorms are possible Wednesday with a passing cold front. Otherwise, warm advection and ridging will create dry and unseasonably warm temperature today, with readings up to 15 degrees above average. Continued warm advection in SW flow will keep the low temperature above seasonal averages. Though a pre- frontal trough may promote an isolated storm during the morning, convection should peak during the late afternoon and evening along and just ahead of a sfc cold front.
Upper level short wave ridging will build through the day between a departing northern stream trough and next one in the Pacific NW. Weak subsident airmass works it way in across much of Colorado today with weak ridging aloft through this afternoon. With the ridging today, there will be warmer temperatures as 700mb temperatures rise to around +8C at Denver by later this afternoon.
Due to a mix of clouds and winds, the NW areas will be warmer with overnight lows than they have been. Confidence in the evolution of key features Wed is not overly high, but most models show the remnant wave over the area with a nicely defined feature aloft with some cooler temps in the upper levels than we typically see. High pressure at the surface and aloft will weaken by mid-week. This will allow for an upper trough to swing across the region and bring a boundary just to the north of the region.
Low temperatures tonight and Wednesday night will be in the low to mid 70s.
Other than that period, the short term should be pretty dry under the influence of the ridge. Winds will be moderate out of the southeast with high pressure centered over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico. While water levels along the lower Texas coast are still running about a foot over the predicted tides this afternoon, coastal flooding will no longer be an issue as low tide approaches this evening.
GOES Satellite water vapor imagery shows a upper level low has moved across central Oregon this afternoon. Therefore, expect ongoing shower and thunderstorm activity across the Northern Rockies to increase in coverage as the upper level low pivots into eastern Oregon later this evening. The upper level low will shift across west-central Montana later tonight into Wednesday morning. The highest precipitation amounts with this system will focus across the Clearwater, Bitterroot, Sapphire, and Mission Mountains, where around one inch of precipitation is expected.
High pressure will rebuild, with much warmer conditions developing by Memorial Day Weekend. Water vapor imagery continues to show a trough of low pressure digging across the region this afternoon, with visible imagery showing just a few low clouds lingering along the coast. Despite the sunny skies, temperatures are running several degrees cooler across the inland areas, with coastal areas running similar to or slightly warmer than this time yesterday. Expect the low clouds to return to the coastal areas tonight, with some patchy low clouds and fog possible tomorrow morning. Transitory weak ridging will rebuild over the region tomorrow, with some minor warming possible.
With the primary northern stream storm track constricted poleward, weak remnant troughing lingers over the SW Conus with a subtle East Pacific negative PV anomaly tapping a stream of subtropical upper level jet moisture. Despite the thickening high clouds, H5 height rises above 582dm and thermal warming of the lower troposphere were yielding afternoon temperatures well into the 90s.
After the front passes, winds will turn to the northwest which will user in cooler temperatures and bring a decrease in the clouds.
Still coverage is minimized, however potential intensity of storms could make up for it? Another interesting day Fri with outflow/cold front e-w along I-20, dryline extending s from cntrl PB with model indications of a thermal low or mesolow across wrn PB. There may be a few storms Sat, but the better potential will start Sun across the wrn areas and then expand e Mon ownward as a slow moving mid-level trof moves into the Desert SW.
With the ridge axes shifting south and eastward and better return flow today, it has contributed to warmer temperatures across the CWA. Attached to the low along the Canadian/US border, is a cold front running through the Great Lakes and Upper Mississippi Valley. Sensible weather will feature cooler temperatures into Wednesday, given the increasing cloud cover and showers/storms in the afternoon. Temps remain above average, generally ranging in the low to mid 80s. A decent ridge/valley split is likely tonight given the clear skies and calmer winds. Cloud cover Wednesday night will likely hamper this split, with lows in the lower 60s for much of the CWA.
Upper trough will bring showers and thunderstorms to our CWA today and this evening, then drying overnight and Wednesday as the trough moves into Montana.
Lows tonight will drop down into the low t mid 60s. Wednesday will be dry for much of the day and into the evening hours under the influence of the a mid level ridge.
1122 AM MDT Tue May 25 2021 The next Pacific Northwest trough will move inland today across, which will allow southwest flow to become established. Tomorrow the trough moves over the Northern Rockies causing the associated jet to pass overhead. Went with the higher end of guidance for wind speeds based on the favorable pattern. A weak cold front will clip the northern portions of the forecast area and perhaps support some showers and storms in the afternoon and evening. This activity looks to focus along and north of the highway 40 corridor.
High pressure will remain in place across the Tennessee Valley today, promoting tranquil conditions once again. Strong subsidence from this ridge will limit cloud cover and result in another dry day. This trough will bring in chances for showers and storms into the forecast area on Wednesday. The precipitation will be moving into a drier atmosphere across the Tennessee Valley late Wednesday and daytime heating will be coming to an end with the trough moving into the area later in the evening. Highs on Wednesday will be a degree or two cooler than today with slightly lower upper heights and increased cloud cover.
Flight conditions will be affected across SE OK and W AR w/a pair of convective low pressure systems bringing rain and storms thru evening. /Issued 1131 AM CDT Tue May 25 2021/ MCV centered near Sallisaw has a very tropical cyclone like radar presentation this morning. Chances for impacts from the latter will be highest at the NE OK terminals and will carry TEMPO groups at these sites during the highest confidence times, with PROB30s at the remaining ones.
Upper lvl ridge begins to slowly shift east allowing southwesterly flow aloft to bring moisture into the region. Given the lack of larger scale forcing, expect another dry day across most locations, although differential heating along the high terrain may be enough for some isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon. There may be an isolated shower or even a thunderstorm around this afternoon with the highest chance around TRI, but even there the probability looks too low to include for now. LW Chattanooga Airport, TN 91 67 92 67 92 / 20 0 10 10 30 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 90 66 90 66 89 / 10 10 10 20 30 Oak Ridge, TN 90 66 90 65 89 / 10 10 20 20 30 Tri Cities Airport, TN 87 62 88 63 87 / 20 10 20 30 30.
1131 AM CDT Tue May 25 2021 MCV centered near Sallisaw has a very tropical cyclone like radar presentation this morning. Chances for impacts from the latter will be highest at the NE OK terminals and will carry TEMPO groups at these sites during the highest confidence times, with PROB30s at the remaining ones.
Changes are coming for tomorrow as the hot ridge is suppressed to our south and a weak wave and surface front approach.
T's are running a few degrees warmer than this time yesterday, so will watch to see if afternoon highs need to be bumped up a degree or two in some locations. Upper level ridging is over the southeast CONUS this morning, while an upper low is over southern Saskatchewan. The low is moving east and will get absorbed into the flow of a trough traversing east southeast over Hudson Bay. The broader effects of this will further flatten the southeast CONUS ridge during the short term period. This will permit a cold front to approach from the northwest.
This area has seen an earlier bout of showers, which coupled with cloudiness has resulted in cooler temperatures into the lower to mid 70s, overall limiting BL instability in an area of DCAPE minimum and weaker lapse rates per RAP mesoanalysis. Otherwise, it's been a breezy/windy day at times with 40 kts LLJ and deeper mixing leading to gusts 25-35 mph ahead of a surface cold front moving through far northwest Iowa. Chance of showers and storms will persist tonight until the cold front passes 08z through 14z from northwest to southeast. A few of the storms could contain small hail, and also gusty winds as the BL remains mixed ahead of the cold front.
An approaching upper level wave and weak surface cold front, which have produced a isolated showers across our area today, will move across the middle Mississippi and lower Ohio valleys tonight. By late Wednesday, the upper wave will move east of the PAH forecast area, but the weak cold front will continue sinking south. The dry conditions will be brief as models show a stronger cold front and deeper upper level wave approaching from the west/northwest.
627 PM EDT Tue May 25 2021 Wednesday will turn very warm, prior to a cold front crossing the region and bringing a chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly during the afternoon hours.
Aloft the persistent upper level ridge that was effectively blocking the flow has been dislodged and is drifting southeast with the ridge axis parallel to the Eastern Seaboard. This deep layer ridging, coupled with an unusually dry air mass, has kept rain chances near 0 for the last few days.
833 PM EDT Tue May 25 2021 Showers and thunderstorms are likely with the approach and passage of a cold front on Wednesday. A dry and warm night may thus be anticipated with lows about 15 degrees above average as per continued warm advection on the van of the Midwestern cold front. Though a pre- frontal trough may promote an isolated storm during the morning, convection should peak during the late afternoon and evening along and just ahead of a sfc cold front.
553 PM EDT Tue May 25 2021 Showers and thunderstorms are likely with the approach and passage of a cold front on Wednesday. A dry and warm night may thus be anticipated with lows about 15 degrees above average as per continued warm advection on the van of the Midwestern cold front. Though a pre- frontal trough may promote an isolated storm during the morning, convection should peak during the late afternoon and evening along and just ahead of a sfc cold front.
719 PM EDT Tue May 25 2021 Wednesday will turn very warm, prior to a cold front crossing the region and bringing a chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly during the afternoon hours.
Showers continue behind the front this afternoon, with the combination of continued cloud cover in the cooler air mass. As an upper ridge builds in this evening behind the exited front showers will taper off by tomorrow morning.
As an upper low pushes south and east this afternoon across ND, winds have increased ahead of it. Wednesday will see some brief upper ridging that will allow temps to rebound into the 60s.
229 PM PDT Tue May 25 2021 The marine layer will deepen over the next couple of days, bringing some cooler weather inland.
High pressure will allow for dry weather on Wednesday, with warmer temperatures through inland valleys and areas of morning low clouds at the coast.
959 PM EDT Tue May 25 2021 Wednesday will turn very warm, prior to a cold front crossing the region and bringing a chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly during the afternoon hours.
Scattered showers and a few isolated thunderstorms are possible through this evening before a more widespread area of rain develops and lifts north across the area late tonight through Wednesday as another low pressure system moves across the Northern Rockies and Montana.
Around 8 pm MDT, thunderstorms had died down, but in the past hour there are new thunderstorms developing in Malheur County just ahead of the center of the trough axis that will move through overnight.
Temperatures will bottom out in the middle 60s in most spots, with a few locations in NE AL and Srn Middle TN falling into the lower 60s. The center of the high pressure ridge will slowly sink to the southeast, becoming centered across the western Florida Panhandle on Wednesday.
759 PM EDT Tue May 25 2021 A cold front will move through the area tonight into early Wednesday afternoon, bringing chances for showers and thunderstorms.
621 PM CDT Tue May 25 2021 Scattered showers and thunderstorms will increase in coverage late tonight as a cold front approaches from the northwest.
High pressure has continued to promote tranquil weather across the Tennessee Valley this afternoon, with partly cloudy conditions prevailing. It's been the hottest day of the year so far with most valley locations making it into the lower 90s. The center of the high pressure ridge will slowly sink to the southeast, becoming centered across the western Florida Panhandle on Wednesday.
High pressure aloft will be in control of our weather into the upcoming weekend, with southwest to west flow aloft and some high clouds from time to time (especially Wednesday).
Better mid level moisture support moves across the northern portion of the area during the evening hours which is when we have the highest pops advertised. Low temperatures are forecast to fall into the low 50s to low 60s.
The northern half of the CWA where showers passed this afternoon / evening are much cooler, in the mid to upper 60s. Enough weakness remains along the western periphery of the mid level ridge to result in more diurnally enhanced scattered convection for Wednesday.
This should be enough given the high pwat atmosphere we have in place for redevelopment of at least scattered convection late tonight across our north and northwest with this convection propagating southeast towards sunrise.
734 PM EDT Tue May 25 2021 High pressure continues to drive well above average temperatures across the forecast area through the end of the week. A cold front brings a chance of rain and a distinct pattern shift for the weekend.
813 PM EDT Tue May 25 2021 Deep high pressure continues to provide a dry and subsident airmass.
Ridge axis will be nudged slightly southward so expect S/SE winds north of Cape Canaveral and SE/ESE to the south with speeds 10-15 kt.
Deep layered ridging continues over region with warm/dry conditions and mostly sunny to partly cloudy afternoon skies through remainder of the week.
252 AM CDT Wed May 26 2021 Scattered showers and a few storms this morning will give way to sunshine and warmth this afternoon with highs in the low to mid 80s across central Illinois.
451 AM EDT Wed May 26 2021 Currently - An upper level ridge extends north northeastwards across the eastern Gulf of Mexico and Florida and overtops the lower level ridge. A few showers have been able to develop this evening, affecting portions of the Lower Keys. While this trough reaches down to 500 mb, the lower level ridge remains intact with still considerable dry air. As a result, this trough will initially only aid in weakening the lower and surface ridging, causing the gradient to slacken. Towards the end of the weak, broad lower to mid level troughing will be in place across the Gulf of Mexico with the surface Atlantic high off to the east and barely holding a ridge extending into Florida.
LW Chattanooga Airport, TN 91 67 91 70 89 / 10 20 30 30 70 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 88 65 88 68 86 / 10 20 30 30 80 Oak Ridge, TN 88 66 88 67 85 / 20 20 30 40 90 Tri Cities Airport, TN 87 62 86 63 84 / 10 20 30 30 80.
330 AM EDT Wed May 26 2021 Showers and thunderstorms are expected today and this evening with the approach and passage of a cold front.
An outflow boundary is expected to drop south from that complex into the area Thursday afternoon ahead of a cold front.
Will maintain scattered thunderstorms in the forecast for tonight with the surface-850 trough axis moving slowly southeastward across eastern/southern Kansas. Any convection further southward along the dryline would likely be isolated with warmer mid-level temperatures. Thursday-Thursday night: This period looks to have the highest severe weather potential in the forecast area. A tornado or two cannot be ruled out near any effective residual outflow boundary, and along the northeast-southwest oriented cold front given the extreme instability and respectable low-level CAPE. A transition to a linear MCS storm mode is expected across southeastern Kansas Thursday evening as the cold front moves through.
228 AM EDT Wed May 26 2021 A cold front will move through the area tonight into early Wednesday afternoon, bringing chances for showers and thunderstorms.
308 AM EDT Wed May 26 2021 Wednesday will turn very warm, prior to a cold front crossing the region and bringing a chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly during the afternoon hours.
As an upper low pushes south and east this afternoon across ND, winds have increased ahead of it. Wednesday will see some brief upper ridging that will allow temps to rebound into the 60s. Rain associated with a low pressure system sliding across the Central Plains will be ongoing over the majority of the area Thursday morning, and looks to continue through the day before gradually coming to an end from west to east Thursday night as high pressure settles in over the Northern Plains.
The low level hodograph progs do not favor a high likelihood for tornadoes at this time.