Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH THE SURFACE WARM FRONT OBSERVED FROM FAR SOUTH CENTRAL THROUGH NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA. AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN THIS MORNING WILL PROPAGATE SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE LOW PUSHES FARTHER TO OUR EAST. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO OUR AREA LATER TODAY AND THROUGH NORTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING. UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES THE PLAINS ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH CHANCES FOR SNOW SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA INTO THE EVENING.
A WARM FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO THE DAKOTAS CONTINUED TO MOVE EAST THIS EARLY MORNING. WITH A WARM FRONT STRETCHING INTO NW MN. A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN. HAVE FOLLOWED A BLEND OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS AND THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF. BUT WE WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SOME DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE. WE ARE LOOKING AT TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 30S.
HOWEVER, THE CLOUDS ARE GENERATING LITTLE, IF ANY, PRECIPITATION IN OUR REGION, MAYBE JUST A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGH PEAKS OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKY MTN FRONT.
THEREFORE THE HIGH WIND WARNING HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. AS MAIN UPPER LOW CROSSES NORTHERN MINNESOTA. UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO TREK EAST AS RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE ROCKIES. UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA WITH MILD AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
The very dry air mass that has moved into the region will allow for cooler temperatures tonight.
310 PM CDT MON OCT 12 2015 DECREASING WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES TONIGHT HIGHLIGHT THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.
355 PM CDT MON OCT 12 2015 THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS WAS INDICATING A SECONDARY COLD FRONT SWEEPING INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CWA ATTM. A RATHER DEEP SFC CYCLONE JUST NORTHWEST OF LK SUPERIOR. WITH THE NORTHWEST COOLER NEAR 40 AND MID TO UPPER 40S UNDER LINGERING CLOUDS/HIGHER SFC WINDS. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.
COLD FRONT IS MOVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF CENTRAL TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH NEAR THE RED RIVER AND AN ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED SIGNIFICANTLY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. THE COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY ORIENTED FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST FROM SOUTHERN INDIANA INTO CENTRAL ARKANSAS. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL BE AROUND 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY.
154 PM EDT MON OCT 12 2015 COLD FRONT CROSSES EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
UPPER RIDGE AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE PATTERN OVER EASTERN IDAHO THROUGH THE WEEK. BELIEVE THE COLDEST NIGHT OCCURRED THIS MORNING WITH NO FURTHER THREAT OF NEAR-FREEZING THIS WEEK. MODELS ARE BEING CONSISTENT WITH IDEA OF DEEP PACIFIC TROUGH PUSHING TOWARD THE COAST BY THE WEEKEND.
A surface cold front has pushed south through the region and is in northern Arkansas this afternoon. Highs will warm into the middle to upper 70s each afternoon, with a few spots warming into the low 80s possible mid week.
A WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION OF THIS FEATURE IN THE FORM OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL ALSO SLIDE THROUGH IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS. THE FRONT AND TROUGH AXIS SHOULD BE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED TO THE LOWEST 10K FEET OF THE ATMOSPHERE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES WARMER TONIGHT DUE TO THE EXPECTED MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE AREA. WITH LOWS ONLY DIPPING INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S.
Winds will be elevated and gusty out of the north to northeast this afternoon as a cold front continues to push into the area. A dry cold front is continuing to march south thru the TX Panhandle. Latest HRRR and RAP13 High Resolution models bring the cold front into the Northern Permian Basin and Low Rolling Plains just after sunrise. The last time the low temperature at MAF dropped down to 50 or lower was April 30th! Ridging will be centered over the Southern Intermountain West this week with a dry northerly flow aloft and low level southwest downslope flow. The upper low that gave us the rain the end of last week will continue its circuitous route to the CA coast and then open into a wave by the weekend.
301 PM CDT MON OCT 12 2015 THE HIGH WIND WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 4PM AS WIND SPEEDS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DIMINISH. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO MIN TEMPS NEAR FREEZING (ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE COOL START THIS EVENING). THE LIKELY SCENARIO IS THAT TEMPS FALL TO NEAR FREEZING. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT DEPICTING NW FLOW ALOFT WITH DRY WEATHER AND SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES.
347 PM EDT MON OCT 12 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH DRY CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF TONIGHT AS IT MOVES FURTHER OFF THE EAST COAST. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON TUESDAY ACCOMPANIED BY SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE WEATHER ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY FOR MOST OF TONIGHT AS IT MOVES FURTHER OFF THE EAST COAST. LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL TRACK EAST INTO ONTARIO OVERNIGHT. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION BY MORNING. SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE LATE IN THE LOWER CONNECTICUT VALLEY. COLD FRONT WILL MAKE ITS WAY EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY ACCOMPANIED BY A BAND OF SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE COOLER THAN MONDAY.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OUT OF SASKATCHEWAN INTO NORTH DAKOTA BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY. AND WINDS WILL INCREASE IN NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA BEFORE SUNRISE IN RESPONSE TO THE LOW AND TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO RELAX AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION.
253 PM CDT MON OCT 12 2015 A surface cold front has pushed south through the region and is in northern Arkansas this afternoon. Highs will warm into the middle to upper 70s each afternoon, with a few spots warming into the low 80s possible mid week.
ONCE THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES CKV. ALSO SLOWED THE TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION TONIGHT WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT AS ALL THE SHORT RANGE MODELS HAVE PRECIP ENTERING OUR NW COUNTIES CLOSER TO THE 00Z HOUR.
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALOFT OVER THE GREAT BASIN EXTENDING NORTH INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL WYOMING WILL BUILD THROUGH TUESDAY WITH DRY MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS. TONIGHT WILL BE COOL BUT 7 TO 12 DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT. TUESDAY WILL BE WARMER. A SURFACE LEE SIDE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN EAST OF THE ROCKIES WITH INCREASING WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OVER THE AREA. THIS AREA WILL ALSO HAVE THE LOWEST RELATIVE HUMIDITY.
327 PM CDT MON OCT 12 2015 MAIN FOCUS WAS ON WINDS DIMINISHING THIS EVENING WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES FILTERING INTO THE STATE TONIGHT. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON AND WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED TO BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA IN SOUTHERN LOCATIONS AND TRIMMED OFF SOME OF THE ADVISORY.
A ridge is building over the region keeping the weather warm and very mild for mid-October this week.
ONE COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE AREA TONIGHT TAKING ANY SHOWERS WITH IT.
254 PM EDT MON OCT 12 2015 A PRESSURE RIDGE WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A PRESSURE RIDGE WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. THE WESTERLY FLOW NORTH OF THE RIDGE WILL LIMIT MOISTURE RETURN INTO THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. MIXING AHEAD OF THE FRONT FAVORS THE WARMER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE TONGED. THE MODELS DISPLAY THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE WARMER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IS USUALLY BEST JUST AHEAD OF COLD FRONTS.
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 77 57 76 47 / 0 60 10 0 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 76 57 73 46 / 0 60 10 0 OAK RIDGE, TN 76 55 73 46 / 10 70 0 0 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 74 54 72 42 / 0 60 10 0.
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE AREA TODAY WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS.
224 PM EDT MON OCT 12 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT TO THE EAST. A COLD FRONT WILL BE PASSING THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR MIDWEEK.
305 PM EDT MON OCT 12 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THIS WILL MARK THE TRANSITION TO A COOLER AND UNSETTLED PATTERN.
DRIER AIR ALOFT HAS MIXED DOWN TO THE SURFACE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 60S NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND MID-UPPER 60S EVEN IN FAR SOUTH MIAMI-DADE.
218 PM MDT MON OCT 12 2015 THERE WILL BE A LARGE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY WITH A TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST STATES THROUGH TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN PARKED OVER MOST OF THE WESTERN STATES.
GENERAL WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO THE NORTHWEST ALLOWING COOLER AIR TO MOVE INTO THE REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN US.
WARM WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION.
PREFRONTAL TROUGH IS ALONG A DEL RIO TO ROCKSPRINGS TO LLANO LINE WITH COLD FRONT ALONG A FORT STOCKTON TO SAN ANGELO TO FORT WORTH LINE. THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY OVERTAKE THE TROUGH AND MOVE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. THOUGH SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN TODAY.
224 PM EDT MON OCT 12 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT TO THE EAST. A COLD FRONT WILL PASSING THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE MIDWEEK.
353 PM CDT MON OCT 12 2015 UPPER AIR PATTERN IS A WESTERN CONUS RIDGE WITH A TROUGH ACROSS MISS RIVER VALLEY. SFC COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH FURTHER TO THE EAST AND POST FRONTAL NORTHWEST WINDS HAVE BEEN GUSTY THROUGHOUT THE DAY. SO DESPITE BE 20 OR MORE DEGREE COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. FAVORED COOL SPOTS ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES LIKELY TO FALL TO AROUND FREEZING WITH PATCHY FROST LIKELY.
302 PM EDT MON OCT 12 2015 WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL WITH DRY WEATHER THROUGH THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH TONIGHT AND MOVE ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR MIDWEEK. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM CHICAGO SOUTHWARD TO OKLAHOMA CITY THIS AFTERNOON. ONLY A NARROW BAND OF CONVECTION NOTED ON THE REGIONAL WSR-88D IMAGE THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE COLD FRONT. IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TO OUR AREA TUESDAY. THE STRONGER WINDS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE RIDGES ABOVE THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION.
244 PM EDT MON OCT 12 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWER CHANCES TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT.
142 PM EDT MON OCT 12 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS TODAY WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S BEFORE THE FRONT PASSES. IT LOOKS LIKE NCEP/WPC MODELS INITIALIZED AND VERIFIED TOO MOIST AND TOO COOL IN THE LOWER TO MID LAYERS. POLAR RIDGE CONTS TO HOLD FIRM ACRS THE SERN US AND STILL EXTENDS ACRS MUCH OF THE GOMEX AND CAN AGAIN SEE A FAILURE FOR PRECIP TO DVLP ALG SWD TRAILING CDFNT LT THU SIMILAR TO WHAT HAS BEEN SEEN W/STG CONSENSUS TRENDS CONCERNING CURRENT SYS IN THE SHRT TERM. A BAND OF CLOUDS WITH BASES BETWEEN 3 AND 4KFT HAVE DEVELOPED IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF COLD FRONT.
1236 PM CDT MON OCT 12 2015 FOR 18Z TAFS /ISSUED 1115 AM CDT MON OCT 12 2015/ OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGED BETWEEN THE LOWER 40S TO THE LOWER 50S BUT THE TN VALLEY IS WARMING UP NICELY ALREADY! PARTS OF NORTHEAST AL SAW DENSE FOG THIS MORNING AND VISIBILITY DID FINALLY IMPROVE. WITH THE TRAILING SFC COLD FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHING FROM IL INTO NORTHERN TX. STILL EXPECTING TO BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY WITH THE PUSH OF SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND SUNSHINE IN BETWEEN THE CLOUD COVER. COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE NW AND MOVE INTO THE TN VALLEY THIS EVENING. THE SCATTERED/WIDELY SCATTERED TSRA ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
THE LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE DAY ON TUESDAY BUT THERE IS A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY TURNING THE WINDS BACK TO THE NORTHWEST. SOME OF THE LOWER ELEVATIONS THERE MAY SEE SOME PATCHY FROST TOWARD MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY. THE CUT OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL REMAIN OFF THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
330 PM EDT MON OCT 12 2015 THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE RESPONSIBLE FOR OUR SEVERAL DAY STRING OF PLEASANT FALL WEATHER WILL SLIDE OFF THE EAST COAST. AND A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW HOUR PERIOD OF SHOWERS. THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS AOA 2200 FT MSL WILL STAY AROUND 67-68F. LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOW-MID 50S. CFROPA TUESDAY MORNING WILL USHER IN COOLER AIR ON BRISK WESTERLY WINDS. HIGH TEMPS TUESDAY WILL BE ABOUT 10F COOLER THAN MONDAY/S. AS THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD.
324 PM EDT MON OCT 12 2015 THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE RESPONSIBLE FOR OUR SEVERAL DAY STRING OF PLEASANT FALL WEATHER WILL SLIDE OFF THE EAST COAST. AND A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW HOUR PERIOD OF SHOWERS. THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS AOA 2200 FT MSL WILL STAY AROUND 67-68F. LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOW-MID 50S. CFROPA TUESDAY MORNING WILL USHER IN COOLER AIR ON BRISK WESTERLY WINDS. HIGH TEMPS TUESDAY WILL BE ABOUT 10F COOLER THAN MONDAY/S. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEEPEN AND BRING COLD AIR ADVECTION THROUGH THE REGION THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
247 PM EDT MON OCT 12 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS STALLED OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WHILE A ROBUST TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THIS WILL MARK THE TRANSITION TO A COOLER AND UNSETTLED PATTERN.
1212 PM CDT MON OCT 12 2015 CANCELLED THE HIGH WIND WARNING ACROSS THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR WITH THIS UPDATE. ALTHOUGH CURRENT WIND GUSTS ARE ON THE LOW END OF ADVISORY. NO CHANGES AT THIS TIME TO THE HIGH WIND WARNING. AS THE 6 MB/3 HOUR PRESSURE RISE BUBBLE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO ENTER NORTHWEST MINNESOTA THIS MORNING. REMAINDER OF THE HIGH WIND HEADLINE LOOKS GOOD. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING. THE HIGH WIND WARNING WILL EXPIRE ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BY 7 AM. BUT IN AN EFFORT TO KEEP MESSAGES SIMPLE DECIDED TO KEEP THE HIGH WIND WARNING GOING RATHER THAN CANCELING AND REPLACING WITH A WIND ADVISORY. BUT OF MORE IMPACT MAY BE THE HIGHER WINDS THEY MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE.
WED-THU: LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS LIKELY AGAIN TUE NIGHT AS RIDGE MOVES THROUGH. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO NORTHERN SECTIONS THU AFTERNOON AND ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA BY LATE THU EVENING.
BUT INCREASING LIFT FROM AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH SHOULD SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND MAYBE EVEN A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO NORTHERN MS/AL.
337 PM EDT MON OCT 12 2015 LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST JUST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA TUESDAY.
311 PM CDT MON OCT 12 2015 Some clouds will linger to the north this evening associated with a big upper low over the western Great Lakes. However, most of Central Illinois will clear out behind the exiting cold front and high pressure will build back into the region. Winds are expected to stay up i the 10-15 mph range as the pressure gradient reestablishes behind the sfc trof.
312 PM MDT MON OCT 12 2015 HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BE ANCHORED FROM NEW MEXICO. THE ONLY CHALLENGE IN THIS PATTERN IS DETERMINING WHERE OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GO BELOW FREEZING IN THE VALLEYS UNDER THE CLEAR SKY AND CALM WIND CONDITIONS. THE CENTRAL COLORADO RIVER BASIN AND GUNNISON VALLEY ALL HAD SEVERAL LOCATIONS AT OR BELOW FREEZING. THE LOWER YAMPA RIVER BASIN OF FAR NORTHWEST COLORADO AND THE ZONE CONTAINING PAGOSA SPRINGS WILL FLIRT WITH FREEZING TEMPS IN ISOLATED AREAS.
CANADIAN RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES ANOTHER SLUG OF MOISTURE ROUNDING THE MAIN UPPER LOW THAT WILL AFFECT THE LAKE OF WOODS REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. COORDINATED WITH MPX TO EXPAND THE HIGH WIND WARNING A TIER OF COUNTIES EASTWARD. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A VERY IMPRESSIVE UPPER LOW ACROSS SOUTHERN MANITOBA. WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES OVER NE ND/NW MN. TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. TEMPS COULD BE A BIT WARMER IN AREAS IN THE EAST IF CLOUDS REMAIN STUBBORN. TUESDAY WILL BE MUCH MORE PLEASANT UNDER HIGH PRESSURE WITH LIGHTER WESTERLY WINDS AND SEASONABLE TEMPS IN THE 50S TO MID 60S.
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE TRAILING SOUTHWEST FROM A CLOSED LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND WEST INTO OKLAHOMA AND WEST TEXAS WAS NUDGING A COLD FRONT SOUTH. THE COLD FRONT EXTENDED ACROSS NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AND INTO EAST CENTRAL TO SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND WEST TEXAS. THE HIGHER RAIN CHANCES WILL BE OVER PARTS OF EAST AND DEEP EAST TEXAS ACROSS NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND INTO SOUTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS. MUCH DRIER AIR WILL FOLLOW IN WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT WITH A DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT AND INTO EARLY TUESDAY.
While grassland areas are overall still fairly green, the low rh, gusty winds, and very warm temperatures will contribute to higher chances for fire ignition in light grass fuels. Mild temperatures were in place across the region early this morning in advance of a cold front that was moving across Kansas and northern Missouri. Once the front moves through the area, a slightly cooler airmass will filter into the Ozarks for today. Overnight temperatures will fall into the 40s as the cooler air moves into the region.
/ISSUED 404 AM CDT MON OCT 12 2015/ A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PANHANDLES BY 12Z TO 14Z THIS MORNING. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 15 KNOTS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND INCREASE TO AROUND 15 TO 25 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE SHARPLY COOLER. ABOUT 15 TO 20 DEGREES COOLER.
Gusty north winds will continue behind the passing cold front before subsiding by early evening. Cold front is making steady progress southward with an axis of 3-5mb/3hr pressure rises extending from western OK into northeast OK resulting in strong post frontal winds. The lower dewpoints and resulting humidity drop also coincide w/ the gusty winds producing conditions favorable for rapid fire spread of any wildfires.
134 PM EDT MON OCT 12 2015 A PRESSURE RIDGE WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A PRESSURE RIDGE WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. THE WESTERLY FLOW NORTH OF THE RIDGE WILL LIMIT MOISTURE RETURN INTO THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. MIXING AHEAD OF THE FRONT FAVORS THE WARMER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE TONGED. THE MODELS DISPLAY THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE WARMER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IS USUALLY BEST JUST AHEAD OF COLD FRONTS.
228 PM CDT MON OCT 12 2015 Lower 60 surface dewpoints are about to push northeast out of northeast Arkansas and the Missouri Bootheel and into west Kentucky ahead of the cold front. This should lead to better surface-based instability, which should increase confidence in scattered convection developing along or just ahead of the cold front mainly over west Kentucky generally after 4 PM.
LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE ARROWHEAD WILL CONTINUE PROPAGATING EASTWARD THIS EVENING.
WITH THE BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE REGION AND A DEEPENING TROUGH ON THE COAST WILL BRING CONTINUED WARMING AND DRY CONDITIONS TO THE REGION THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
158 PM CDT MON OCT 12 2015 A dry cold front moving through the forecast area is resulting in gusty northerly winds, with a few locations seeing 25-30 mph sustained and gusts around 40-45 mph. Expect more of the same through the rest of the week as an ua ridge remains over the region. We could see showers and thunderstorms then, but models are divided on whether a weak ua trough makes it here or not.
339 PM CDT MON OCT 12 2015 (Tonight and Tuesday) Cold front continues to drop south through West Central Texas this afternoon, extending south of a San Angelo to Brownwood line at 20Z (3 PM). Not a lot cooler to the north with readings in the upper 80s and lower 90s. Slightly cooler and much drier air mass settles into the area tonight, and radiational cooling will allow temperatures to drop into the 50s tonight.
138 PM EDT MON OCT 12 2015 AVIATION BREEZY AND MILD AGAIN TODAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT BRINGS CLOUDS AND CHILLY TEMPERATURES WITH SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.
LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW AT 85H WILL BRING IN SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR AND SOUTH-SOUTHWEST COMPONENT TO SURFACE WIND WILL LEAD TO HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
625 PM EDT MON OCT 12 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL BRING RAIN SHOWERS TONIGHT. A VERY POTENT THETA-E PLUME IN THE MID- LEVELS IS FEEDING UP INTO THIS AREA OF DIVERGENCE FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TOWARD THE CENTRAL OHIO VALLEY. WITH A FAIRLY SHARP BACK SIDE OF THE PLUME REVEALING THE LOCATION OF THE MID- LEVEL COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS MOVING TOWARD WESTERN OHIO AT THIS HOUR. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY SWEEP THROUGH.
THE HEAT WAVE WILL COME TO AN END THIS WEEK AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WEST OF BAJA SLOWLY MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A STRONG UPPER LOW OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WITH DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT AT THE NOSE OF AN 80-KT JET STREAK HERE IN MIDDLE TN. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NEAR SPRINGFIELD MO TO CHICAGO. A WEAK PRE FRONTAL TROUGH (VISIBLE IN PAH RADAR IMAGERY) IS HELPING WINDS CONVERGE A BIT CLOSER TO MIDDLE TN. OUR NWRN COUNTIES WILL LIKELY NOT SEE ANYTHING UNTIL CLOSER TO 00Z WHEN PRECIP COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET INCREASES AROUND THAT TIME.
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY STRONG LOW PRESSURE ACROSS ONTARIO WILL MOVE TO HUDSON BAY LATE TONIGHT. TOOK A BLEND OF THE COOLER MET AND WARMER MAV GUIDANCE. TOOK A BLEND OF THE COOLER MET AND WARMER MAV GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS.
338 PM EDT MON OCT 12 2015 A COLD FRONT STRETCHED FROM MI TO AR THIS AFTERNOON AND WAS ADVANCING QUICKLY TO THE SE. AS A MODESTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS MOVES IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. A COLD FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL BRING SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WITH MVFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES THIS EVENING.
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH 22Z THEN QUICKLY FALL OFF AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. AS THE HIGH SETTLES OVER THE REGION TONIGHT TEMPS WILL BOTTOM OUT ACROSS THE EAST IN THE 30S. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE QUICKLY APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST EARLY TUESDAY. THE ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER AND WESTERLY SFC FLOW FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL HELP KEEP TEMPS IN THE LOWER 40S ACROSS THE WEST.
THE LOW HUMIDITIES ALONG WITH THE WINDY CONDITIONS AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL KEEP THE WILDFIRE POTENTIAL ELEVATED UNTIL THIS EVENING SO WILL KEEP THE RED FLAG WARNING RUNNING UNTIL 0Z.
204 PM EDT MON OCT 12 2015 COLD FRONT CROSSES EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
123 PM MDT MON OCT 12 2015 EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS STRONG UPPER LOW ACROSS THE NW GREAT LAKES REGION WITH NW FLOW FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. STRONG RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE PATTERN ACROSS SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH NW FLOW ACROSS OUR CWA. WITH UPPER LOW TRANSITIONING EASTWARD RISING HEIGHTS/DEVELOPING LEE TROUGH WILL SUPPORT INCREASING TEMPERATURES TUESDAY. HOWEVER MANY LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY SEE ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE REGION AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING PERSISTS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS.