Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
/Tonight through Monday Night/ Eroded upper ridge now centered over the sern CONUS, as an upper trof traverses the Rockies. In general, slightly warmer than persistence fcst for overnight temps tonight and Monday night, as moisture begins to slowly recover.
The upper low churning off the southern Texas coast is forecast to retrograde into the Valley through tomorrow.
With the cloud cover going highs in the lower to mid 70s are unlikely to be surpassed and no changes made there. Upper energy riding around an upper high may get close enough for convection to form, mainly west and north (farthest from the upper high).
Were there has been more sun readings were in the low and mid 90s. Heat indices in the southwest currently are in the low 100s.
Isolated showers/storms may affect portions of western OK this afternoon and tonight with the highest chances in parts of NW OK. trough slowly takes shape, scattered showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms will be possible across far western and northern Oklahoma next several days.
Increased low level moisture in combination with an upper level low pressure system entering the south Texas coast and then moving towards our area will create those conditions needed for shower and thunderstorm activity.
The first of two upper level troughs will move east across the region today. Cooler temperatures and scattered showers and thunderstorms will focus on northern Utah today. However, as the trough continues to swing negatively through the state today, the dynamics are not all lost under subsident conditions. Breezy to gusty southwest winds will continue this afternoon across southern Utah as the trough swings through.
330 PM EDT Sun Sep 8 2019 The afternoon surface analysis shows high pressure centered across the Great Lakes and this will keep the weather quiet through the short term period. The guidance also shows the upper level ridge building across the Ohio Valley further leading to subsidence and dry weather through the short term period. This ridge shifting east and combining with the high will bring temperatures back up to summer like standards by Monday.
SHORT TERM (Now through Monday Night): 500 mb low pressure over the western Gulf of Mexico will make a slow creep west-northwest across the BRO CWFA during the period.
Low temperatures will be in the lower to middle 70s, several degrees above normal.
Contrary to mid term guidance, most short term models remain mostly dry through the late afternoon and early evening as weak mid level ridging shifts northeast of the area. After midnight through Monday morning, isentropic ascent increases towards central KS as an upper trough axis approaches northern WY and Montana. This may also keep highs cooler than the current forecast if this comes to pass. Increasing high and mid clouds overnight lend to slightly warmer lows Monday morning with readings in the lower 70s. Confidence is decreasing for late Monday evening as the ECMWF and NAM runs are backing off on QPF with the upper trough axis further north and east than previously runs.
This weak short wave is part of an extension of a large scale trough moving through the Intermountain West today. The larger scale trough was actively suppressing the upper ridge to regions south of Texas. For today, the highest concentration of convection will continue to be in eastern New Mexico within the low level theta-e ridge. Mixed layer instability around 500 J/kg this afternoon and early evening will be able to sustain some stronger updrafts outside of the low level theta-e axis. The low level theta-e ridge will shift east on Monday to the South Plains.
Dry air and subsidence courtesy of resident high pressure will again confine the best opportunity for measurable precip to the southernmost zones.
Showers will end across most of our CWA tonight as a weak upper level ridge crosses the area.
139 PM EDT Sun Sep 8 2019 A few showers will be possible today ahead of an advancing warm front.
Cool temperatures will continue, but with increasing clouds tonight we do not expect the low temperatures to fall off as much as last night. Highs Monday will only be in the 50s north, but near 70 southwest as the warmer air moves through.
A warm front currently stationed over Kansas will continue to lift north towards the forecast area this evening and overnight. Additional showers and storms are expected to develop to the north of this boundary, overspreading much of the CWA overnight, as the low level jet increases.
Upper level ridging will build over the area this evening and overnight and help to bring quiet but warm weather to the area. THis will help keep dewpoints up along with humidity values as temperatures overnight only fall into the lower 70s and day time highs Monday climb into the lower 90s. The ridging will continue through much of the week with the Ozarks finding itself on the western edge of the ridge.
139 PM EDT Sun Sep 8 2019 Upper ridge over the region will help produce above normal temperatures. High pressure aloft is trying to build in from the south, while at the surface a frontal boundary wobbles back and forth across the Midlands and into the southern CSRA. Precipitable water values will increase today with onshore low-level flow, with the highest values east. The upper pattern flattens out, then ridge off to the south builds into the area to start off the week. Upper ridge continues over the area.
We should see a broad upper H5 ridge across the heart of the FA/up the Mississippi river valley by tmrw morning, so we've removed the scant pops that were in our north at that time.
231 PM EDT Sun Sep 8 2019 Except for the ridges tonight, the forecast area should be dry through the first half of the work week.
152 PM EDT Sun Sep 8 2019 Cool northeast flow is resulting in a lake effect stratocu field affecting most of the taf sites this afternoon while mid deck of clouds stream in ahead of a low pressure system over the plains. The degree of low clouds is unknown due to wealth of mid clouds blocking satellite views but obs have been bouncing around most of the day from low VFR to MVFR. Mid deck around 10-15kft will remain in place as the elevated warm front remains in the vicinity. Cooler and drier air continues to slip into southeast Michigan early this morning, as surface dew pts have dropped into the upper 40s to mid 50s.
The best chance will be this evening as the main energy with this trough lifts across the area. By tomorrow, things will generally be drying out as the trough moves off, and some riding starts to build in. With the ridging building in, expecting temperatures to be a little warmer than today, but will still generally around normal.
Once this feature dissipates completely, weak upper level ridging will dominate for the next 24 hours, resulting in only cirrus and a few altocumulus clouds near us for the start of the work week, ranging from just a few wisps of white along the Tennessee line to perhaps a milky white veil over southern Indiana at times. Updated at 230 PM EDT Sat Sep 8 2019 Dry conditions will be in store for most of the work week, as an upper level high pressure systems builds directly overhead our region.
1205 PM EDT Sun Sep 8 2019 Upper ridge over the region will help produce above normal temperatures. High pressure aloft is trying to build in from the south, while at the surface a frontal boundary sits across the Midlands, currently extending from Lancaster County southward through Columbia into the CSRA south of Augusta. Precipitable water values will increase today with onshore low-level flow, with the highest values east. The upper pattern flattens out, then ridge off to the south builds into the area to start off the week. Upper ridge continues over the area.
- Upper low off the southern Texas coastline will remain in the vicinity of eastern Texas and allow a series of offshore disturbances to move inland and increase daily precipitation chances.
204 PM CDT Sun Sep 8 2019 A hot and humid week is expected as an upper level high pressure system builds across the southeast states.
127 PM EDT Sun Sep 8 2019 High pressure keeps its hold over the area, maintaining fair but warm weather and VFR conditions.
1040 AM CDT Sun Sep 8 2019 Skies were mostly sunny across the area with mid morning temperatures mainly in the lower to mid 80s. Today appears to be the last of this persistently hot, dry pattern as the upper level ridge that has remained parked over the south central U.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 96 68 97 70 / 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 89 65 93 68 / 0 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 90 65 93 68 / 0 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 87 59 90 62 / 0 10 0 0.
DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED EARLY THIS WEEK BEFORE RETURN TO WETTER High pressure will continue to build over the Southeastern United States from the Western Atlantic waters through the middle of this week.
Upper level ridging to the south may keep things mainly dry and warm much of the forecast period, although a quick moving cold front could produce a few storms early in the weekend across portions of the area.
242 PM CDT Sun Sep 8 2019 The upper flow has now become southwesterly over the Plains as we transition from the amplified ridge last week to a more progressive and zonal pattern aloft this week. This system will lift northeast over the central/northern Plains around the developing southeast CONUS ridge. This flow pattern will produce lee troughing over the High Plains, and thus the next couple of days will be windier than what we've seen for awhile. Still looks like one more toasty day Monday before temps begin to drop off due to cooler low level thermal fields advecting in from the south.
213 PM CDT Sun Sep 8 2019 High pressure maintains its grasp on our weather tonight, with calm winds, mostly clear skies, and low temperatures bottoming out in the mid 60s for most of the area. Upper level ridging continues to intensify during the early workweek, with 500 mb heights reaching near 594 dm.
While the amount of mid-level moisture available is particularly lacking for widespread precipitation, enough surface moisture (Sfc Dewpoints >= 60F), strong lower level lapse rates (Widespread 0-3km lapse rates > 9 C/km), and an upper-level short wave trough shifting east could produce some precipitation throughout western and northern Oklahoma this afternoon and evening.
248 PM CDT Sun Sep 8 2019 Upper level water vapor imagery shows a closed low off the southern Texas coast. This upper level low will continue to move onshore through Monday. Increased cloud coverage will keep temperatures a degree or two cooler than today with highs in the low to mid 90s.
The somewhat flat H5 ridge will not only continue its hold over the area, it will begin its advertised strengthening during Monday.
Low level S/SE flow is expected around the Atlantic ridge overnight with light winds inland and a south to southeast breeze along the beaches. Lows will range from the lower to mid 70s for the interior to the upper 70s along the beaches.
Upper ridge remains over the area keeping our dry string going.
425 PM CDT Sun Sep 8 2019 Deep layer high pressure will persist over much or most of the southeast U. through most the upcoming week which will continue to support above normal temperatures along with mostly dry conditions, however the highs will start trending down slightly the next two days due to deeper southeast to south flow bringing a bit more cloud cover and some isolated showers and thunderstorms in spots.
/issued 240 PM CDT Sun Sep 8 2019/ SHORT TERM (Now through Monday Night): 500 mb low pressure over the western Gulf of Mexico will make a slow creep west-northwest across the BRO CWFA during the period.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 67 97 70 96 / 0 0 0 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 65 92 68 93 / 0 0 0 10 Oak Ridge, TN 65 92 68 93 / 0 0 0 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 60 89 64 89 / 0 0 0 10.
629 PM EDT Sun Sep 8 2019 Upper ridge over the region will help produce above normal temperatures through the week. The upper pattern flattens out, then ridge off to the south builds into the area to start off the week. Upper ridge continues over the area.
404 PM CDT Sun Sep 8 2019 Showers and thunderstorms moved out of the area earlier today as the low level jet veered and weakened across Missouri and Illinois. Expect the warm front to move north tonight. Expect dry weather on Monday as the warm front will be north of the area and the upper ridge that will be centered over the southeastern CONUS will continue to build over Missouri and Illinois.
Upper level ridging continues to intensify during the early workweek, with 500 mb heights reaching near 594 dm.
659 PM CDT Sun Sep 8 2019 Showers and thunderstorms moved out of the area earlier today as the low level jet veered and weakened across Missouri and Illinois. Expect the warm front to move north tonight. Expect dry weather on Monday as the warm front will be north of the area and the upper ridge that will be centered over the southeastern CONUS will continue to build over Missouri and Illinois.
752 PM EDT Sun Sep 8 2019 Upper ridge over the region will help produce above normal temperatures through the week. The upper pattern flattens out, then ridge off to the south builds into the area to start off the week. Upper ridge continues over the area.
High pressure maintains its grasp on our weather tonight, with calm winds, mostly clear skies, and low temperatures bottoming out in the mid 60s for most of the area. Upper level ridging continues to intensify during the early workweek, with 500 mb heights reaching near 594 dm.
A hot and humid week is expected as an upper level high pressure system builds across the southeast states.
This is in respond to an area of low pressure approaching the area from the southwest. First event will occur late tonight into Monday afternoon as the aforementioned low pressure area moves across the region.
926 PM CDT Sun Sep 8 2019 Still seeing some high, very thin clouds pushing northward from the northern Gulf in response to a closed upper level low across extreme S Tx attm.
/Issued 242 PM CDT Sun Sep 8 2019/ The upper flow has now become southwesterly over the Plains as we transition from the amplified ridge last week to a more progressive and zonal pattern aloft this week. This system will lift northeast over the central/northern Plains around the developing southeast CONUS ridge. This flow pattern will produce lee troughing over the High Plains, and thus the next couple of days will be windier than what we've seen for awhile. Still looks like one more toasty day Monday before temps begin to drop off due to cooler low level thermal fields advecting in from the south.
This ridge has shifted northward during the past 24 hours, allowing typical summertime E/SE flow to finally resume across the Keys, after many days of unusual westerly flow. Aloft, water vapor imagery shows a mid/upper level low centered near 29N77W.
The afternoon surface analysis shows high pressure centered across the Great Lakes and this will keep the weather quiet through the short term period. The guidance also shows the upper level ridge building across the Ohio Valley further leading to subsidence and dry weather through the short term period. This ridge shifting east and combining with the high will bring temperatures back up to summer like standards by Monday.
1042 PM EDT Sun Sep 8 2019 Upper ridge over the region will help produce above normal temperatures through the week. The upper pattern flattens out, then ridge off to the south builds into the area to start off the week. Upper ridge continues over the area.
/Issued 248 PM CDT Sun Sep 8 2019/ Upper level water vapor imagery shows a closed low off the southern Texas coast. This upper level low will continue to move onshore through Monday. Increased cloud coverage will keep temperatures a degree or two cooler than today with highs in the low to mid 90s.
955 PM CDT Sun Sep 8 2019 Wx map shows weak high pressure at the sfc providing light to calm winds over the region. Aloft, a mid to upper level trough over the Western Gulf has allowed for some increase in moisture from the Gulf, with isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms developing over Lower Acadiana late this afternoon. With clear skies and nearly calm winds, temps should fall a few more degrees to the lower/mid 70s.
/issued 334 PM EDT Sun Sep 8 2019/ INCREASED THREAT OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG EAST COAST BEACHES DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED EARLY THIS WEEK BEFORE RETURN TO WETTER High pressure will continue to build over the Southeastern United States from the Western Atlantic waters through the middle of this week.
344 AM EDT Mon Sep 9 2019 Upper ridge over the region will help produce above normal temperatures through the week. Upper level ridging anchored over the southeastern CONUS will continue to result in above normal temperatures across the region today. Upper ridge builds across the region through the period, which will aid in keeping temperatures above normal each day.
Showers and thunderstorms are diminishing this evening as the atmosphere stabilizes and the upper low exits east. The most widespread showers were north of the Treasure Valley, associated with the north portion of an eastward drifting upper level trough. Shower activity will diminish overnight as a weak upper level ridge crosses the area, but the main trough, centered over the Pacific Northwest coast, will send more showers our way on Monday. Expect widespread showers and isolated thunderstorms on Tuesday as the trough moves inland.
The upper pattern continues to shift to a large scale trough to our west while upper ridging builds over the SE U. The favored area for convective initiation will be across the higher terrain around lunch time.
1039 PM CDT Sun Sep 8 2019 Showers and thunderstorms moved out of the area earlier today as the low level jet veered and weakened across Missouri and Illinois. Expect the warm front to move north tonight. Expect dry weather on Monday as the warm front will be north of the area and the upper ridge that will be centered over the southeastern CONUS will continue to build over Missouri and Illinois.
Temperatures will continue to be well above normal with afternoon highs in the low/mid 90s.
1013 PM MDT Sun Sep 8 2019 After weak high pressure and quiet weather Monday, a stronger and colder storm system will move through the area midweek with precipitation and once again focused on the northern half of the forecast area.
445 AM EDT Mon Sep 9 2019 Mid/upper level ridging will build over the southeast U. and Florida through midweek then weaken over Florida late in the week as an upper level low drifts west northwest across the region. Meanwhile at the surface weak high pressure will hold over the area today then a stronger high will build in from the northeast by midweek setting up an increased northeast to east flow.
At the surface, low pressure is centered in northeast Wyoming, with model guidance tracking it just south of the North Dakota / South Dakota border throughout today. Plenty of vorticity aloft in the base of the trough to promote lift, with widespread rain showers on the north side of the low expected to move northeast through the forecast area. Plenty of low clouds with the precipitation, which will help keep temperatures cooler than normal again. There won't be much of a break from the rain this week, as the longwave trough to our west begins to approach the Northern Plains.
/issued 254 PM CDT Sun Sep 8 2019/ (Tonight and Monday) Another warm and dry day is in progress across West Central Texas, with temperatures currently in the lower 90s. Expect another quiet night, with lows in the lower 70s. The upper level ridge axis will continue moving off to the east of our area on Monday while an upper level trough begins to deepen across the western CONUS. Models do indicate the possibility of scattered showers and thunderstorms developing across the lower Trans Pecos/Davis Mountains vicinity in the afternoon and spreading into the southwestern CWA. Otherwise, expect partly sunny skies with afternoon highs in the lower to mid 90s.
200 AM EDT Mon Sep 9 2019 A warming trend will begin today and the period of warmer weather will continue for the remainder of the work week. A warm front will lift northeast across the region late tonight bringing high temperatures back into the mid and upper 80s by Tuesday afternoon.
/issued 926 PM CDT Sun Sep 8 2019/ Still seeing some high, very thin clouds pushing northward from the northern Gulf in response to a closed upper level low across extreme S Tx attm.
211 AM MDT Mon Sep 9 2019 A band of showers and thunderstorms over parts of western South Dakota early this morning is associated with an upper trough crossing the region. Subsidence behind the upper trough and drier air at the surface will lead to clouds decreasing from southwest to northeast today.
Mid-level southwest flow will continue to draw monsoon moisture aloft across our latitude while southerly flow at the surface will do the same with Gulf moisture through the end of the week as the upper level low digs south.
An upper level low early this morning was centered between Corpus Christi and Brownsville. The low will continue to slowly retrograde west-northwest into South Texas today and tonight, and the slowly open into a trough and drift over portions of South Texas on Tuesday.
For Monday and Tuesday, Arkansas will generally remain under the influence of upper level ridging and subsidence, but an increase in southerly winds will bring some Gulf moisture across the southern and central parts of the state.
415 AM EDT Mon Sep 9 2019 High pressure over southeast Canada will begin to slide off to the east today. Southerly flow on the backside of the high will bring a warming trend to the Ohio Valley. A mid level ridge will start to build up the Ohio Valley today. The ridge will continue to build across the region. The strengthening ridge will provide dry and mostly sunny conditions of Tuesday.
Warm front will lift into Iowa this morning with temperatures a few degrees warmer than yesterday, additionally dew points will increase slightly today making it feel more uncomfortable with heat indices of 90-95 degrees for much of the area. Warm moist flow will continue through the middle of the work week with heat indices near or above 90 degrees across much of the area as the upper ridge builds over the area.
Mid to upper level ridging will dominate today, allowing once again for above normal temperatures (about 8 degrees above normal for TLH) across the tri-state area. Heat indices will be in the low 100s, below heat advisory criteria, however with these warm temperatures its still important to follow heat safety guidelines.
An upper level ridge will build over the region today causing temps to warm into the mid 80s to around 90 for highs this afternoon. Updated at 304 AM EDT Mon Sep 8 2019 High pressure over the region will continue to build, reinforcing uncomfortable weather over southern Indiana and central Kentucky. Anticyclonic flow around the high pressure center located over the southeastern U.
This weak short wave is part of an extension of a large scale trough moving through the Intermountain West today. The larger scale trough was actively suppressing the upper ridge to regions south of Texas. For today, the highest concentration of convection will continue to be in eastern New Mexico within the low level theta-e ridge. Mixed layer instability around 500 J/kg this afternoon and early evening will be able to sustain some stronger updrafts outside of the low level theta-e axis. The low level theta-e ridge will shift east on Monday to the South Plains. A larger trough will dig into the western US on Tuesday with a strong upper level jet moving across the Intermountain West.
235 AM EDT Mon Sep 9 2019 Upper ridge over the region will help produce above normal temperatures through the week. Upper level ridging anchored over the southeastern CONUS will continue to result in above normal temperatures across the region today. The upper pattern flattens out, then ridge off to the south builds into the area to start off the week. Upper ridge continues over the area.