Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
AS MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN OVERALL INCREASES WITH A SYSTEM TOPPING THE MEAN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO OUR WEST. THIS ULTIMATELY EVOLVES INTO A COLD FRONT TAKING SHAPE AND MAKING PASSAGE WHEN ENERGY IN THE NORTHEAST U. LONG WAVE TROF ROUNDS ITS BASE.
352 PM EDT THU JUN 4 2015 HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED TO THE NORTHEAST WHILE A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY PASSES TO OUR SOUTHEAST THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
NAM SHOWS THE UPPER AIR PATTERN HAS A RIDGE ACROSS THE PLAINS AND A CLOSED LOW AND TROUGH IN THE WESTERN U. AND TROUGHING IN THE EASTERN U. THIS TROUGH THEN MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS 00Z SUN AND INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON SUN. GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES 12Z MON THAT MOVES INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES 12Z TUE. THE NEXT 500 MB TROUGH MOVES INTO THE CANADIAN ROCKIES 12Z TUE AND INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES 12Z WED. THE BACK EDGE OF THE LOWER CLOUDS IS OVER NW MN. LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE BAY OF GREEN BAY THIS EVENING WILL MOVE SE OF THE GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER N MANITOBA WILL BUILD OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
141 PM EDT THU JUN 4 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG A COASTAL FRONT OFF THE CAROLINA COAST THROUGH TONIGHT. WHILE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. THE LOW WILL MOVE EAST AND THE WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL ERODE ON FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. A STATIONARY COASTAL FRONT AND WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE APPALACHIANS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TODAY AND TONIGHT. AND THEREFORE THE WARMER TEMPERATURES AND MORE UNSTABLE AIR.
1238 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2015 FOR 18Z TAFS /ISSUED 1107 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2015/ WATER VAPOR SATELLITE OUTLINES THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING ACROSS GA AND THE CAROLINAS THIS MORNING. THE RIDGE IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS CONTINUES TO BUILD EAST HELPING TO KEEP THE PRECIP CHANCES LOW FOR TODAY. LEFT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FOR THIS AFTERNOON IN NE AL DUE TO CAPE VALUES UP TO 1000 J/KG AND WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
146 PM EDT THU JUN 4 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP MAINLY DRY WEATHER OVER THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES THROUGH THE CAROLINAS. A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL PROVIDE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY.
1031 AM PDT THU JUN 4 2015 Low pressure begins to lose its influence of the Inland Northwest today into Friday. The best shower threat retreats to the northern mountains today and only near the lower Idaho Panhandle Friday afternoon. Much warmer weather is expected Friday into the weekend as a high pressure ridge returns to the region.
352 PM EDT THU JUN 4 2015 SHORT TERM MODELS CONTINUE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AS THE UPPER LOW PULLS AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SETS UP. WITH LACK OF STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AM NOT EXPECTING THE LOW LEVEL STRATUS TO SET UP TOMORROW AS WELL.
648 PM EDT THU JUN 4 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD MOVES OFFSHORE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH AND MOVE SOUTH INTO THE MOUNTAINS LATE FRIDAY AND THEN THE REST OF THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT.
101 PM EDT THU JUN 4 2015 A PRESSURE TROUGH WILL BE NEAR THE COAST THROUGH FRIDAY. THE LOW WILL BE OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT AND JUST OFF THE COAST FRIDAY. MOISTURE HAS BECOME SOMEWHAT SHALLOW IN THE WAKE OF WIDESPREAD PREVIOUS RAIN AND MUCH OF THE CONVERGENCE HAS SHIFTED OFF THE COAST ASSOCIATED WITH THE INVERTED TROUGH. THE PATTERN SUPPORTS SCATTERED COVERAGE AS SHOWN BY THE HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS. SLOW STORM MOVEMENT NEAR THE UPPER LOW STILL SUPPORTS A POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY RAIN. CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES A LITTLE FARTHER AWAY. THE MODELS SHOW THE RIDGING EXTENDING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH WEAKENING WITH THE INVERTED TROUGH SHIFTING FARTHER OFF THE COAST FRIDAY.
NOT UNTIL A PREDOMINATE E/NE FLOW DEVELOPS LATE TONIGHT/FRIDAY DOES ANY DRYING IN THE LOWEST 3K BE SIGNIFICANT.
STILL A FAIR AMOUNT OF SC AROUND THE VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON BUT THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST AWAY FROM THE APPALACHIANS.
CURRENTLY THE WEATHER PATTERN IS DOMINATED BY A CLOSED LOW ALONG THE WEST COAST WHILE RIDGE IS CENTERED OVER TEXAS AND ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ROTATING OVER THE CAROLINAS. PIECE OF ENERGY FROM THIS LOW EXTENDS SOUTH ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF COAST WHICH HELP RETROGRADE THE HIGH PRESSURE FURTHER WEST. LINGERING MOISTURE AVAILABLE IN THE LOWER LEVELS IS ENOUGH TO SPARK A FEW SHOWERS THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY AS THE SEA BREEZE MOVES IN. HIGH TEMPS WILL RANGE BETWEEN THE LOW TO MID 90S. THE SAME TREND CONTINUES INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE REESTABLISHES ITS SELF ACROSS THE REGION DUE TO LOW PRESSURE DIGGING SOUTHWARD FRIDAY. BY FRIDAY NIGHT THE WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS IDENTICAL AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS KEEPS US UNDER A LIGHT SE FLOW AND CLEAR SKIES.
557 PM EDT THU JUN 4 2015 A PRESSURE TROUGH WILL BE NEAR THE COAST THROUGH FRIDAY. THE LOW WILL BE OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT AND JUST OFF THE COAST FRIDAY. WATER VAPOR SHOWING THE CORE OF THE UPPER LOW PUSHING EAST OF THE CWA AT THIS TIME. CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH LATE IN THE EVENING AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES A LITTLE FARTHER AWAY. THE MODELS SHOW RIDGING EXTENDING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH WEAKENING WITH THE INVERTED TROUGH SHIFTING FARTHER OFF THE COAST FRIDAY.
317 PM EDT THU JUN 4 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD MOVES OFFSHORE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH AND MOVE SOUTH INTO THE MOUNTAINS LATE FRIDAY AND THEN THE REST OF THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT.
THE WEEKEND KICKS OFF WITH A 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN SEA BOARD OF THE UNITED STATES.
346 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2015 TODAY A DEGREE OR SO WARMER THAN YESTERDAY.
LIMITING FACTOR OF DEVELOPMENT INTO CWA HAS BEEN STRONG MID-LEVEL CAPPING INVERSION ASSOCIATED WITH H5 RIDGE AXIS THAT REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE REGION. THOUGH MAY SEE MORE VEERING IN THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD LATER IN THE DAY PROVIDING SOME DOWNSLOPE WARMING.
RAP 500 MB ANALYSIS SHOWED A RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS THAT WAS BEGINNING TO BREAK DOWN AS A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGAN TO PUSH ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS. SURFACE METARS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS SHOWED A BOUNDARY POSITIONED FROM TRIBUNE TO HILL CITY AND NORTHWARD INTO NEBRASKA.
LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL SEND MOISTURE NORTH INTO UTAH BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT.
Meanwhile, additional showers and thunderstorms have formed in the Idaho panhandle due and will steadily march east towards NW Montana as a Canadian upper-level low pressure system brushes the region.
220 PM PDT THU JUN 4 2015 A few lingering showers and thunderstorms will be possible on Friday mainly over the lower Idaho Panhandle. Dry and much warmer weather is expected through the weekend as a high pressure ridge returns to the region.
MAINLY IN SOUTHWEST MONTANA BUT COULD EXTEND OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CENTRAL MONTANA. THEN THE NEXT PLUME OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ANCHORED ALONG THE WEST COAST ARRIVES, BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY EVENING. THE CYCLE REPEATS ONE MORE TIME ON FRIDAY AS THE TROF'S CIRCULATION CENTER REMAINS STATIONARY OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.
SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA FROM THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS.
A CLOSED UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG THE COAST HAS SHIFTED SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.
208 PM EDT THU JUN 4 2015 A MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW DRIFTS OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST FRIDAY.
COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PUSH DOWN FROM ONTARIO ON FRIDAY WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME AFTERNOON SUN.
155 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2015 WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER LOW THAT HAS BEEN PLAGUING THE SOUTHEAST CONTINUING TO TRACK EAST THRU SC WITH A VORTICITY SPOKE DROPPING S BEHIND IT INTO NERN GA. MEANWHILE AN UPPER RIDGE WAS BUILDING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY TODAY. THE REMNANT VORTICITY CENTERS ASSOCIATED WITH DAILY/NIGHTLY MCS ACTIVITY IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO MIGRATE OVER THE RIDGE AND INTO THE TN VALLEY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE STORMS WILL HAVE TO GENERATE THEIR OWN SR-INFLOW THOUGH GIVEN NORTHERLY FLOW THROUGHOUT THE LOW TO MID LEVELS.
202 PM EDT THU JUN 4 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA TODAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION DRAGGING A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO MAINE OVER THE WEEKEND. CURRENT SATELLITE PRESENTATION SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND SUBSIDENCE/DRYING ALOFT. MOISTURE FROM THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTHEAST WILL BEGIN TO PULL OUT TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT. SOME DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO PUSH INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT FOR A SHORT PERIOD AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY IN THE WAKE OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION.
AS SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WRAPPING AROUND THE UPPER LOW OVER THE CAROLINAS. CONVECTION WILL WIND DOWN QUICKLY THIS EVENING WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A LIGHT SHOWER OR TWO ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES AND ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS PIVOTS ACROSS THE REGION.
LIGHT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE THIS EVENING AS UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE OUT AHEAD OF CENTRAL CALIFORNIA UPPER LOW INCREASES OVER THE AREA.
535 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2015 ALOFT: A RIDGE IS OVER THE PLAINS WITH TROFS OF THE ERN AND WRN USA. WITH THE RIDGE REBUILDING IN ITS WAKE WITH RISING HEIGHTS. A SYNOPTIC COOL FRONT EXTENDED NE FROM THIS LOW THRU NEB-IA-WI. AS THE UPR TROF DEPARTS. THE RIDGE AXIS ALOFT IS A RED FLAG.
EXPECT HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN TO THE LOW 80S FAR INLAND.
350 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2015 THE 588 DAM RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL REMAIN ANCHORED IN PLACE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
630 PM EDT THU JUN 4 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH ON FRIDAY AND CROSS THE STATE FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND. PLEASANT EVENING OUT THERE TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE FIRMLY ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE STATE. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MAINE WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT TO THE EAST TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST FRIDAY AND CROSS THE REGION LATE IN THE DAY. FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE MAIN UPPER TROF AXIS E OF OUR FA LATER WED. TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER ON MON THAN SUN WITH WARM ADVCN SHWRS/RNFL MON AFTN AND EVE.
306 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2015 QUIET AND SEASONALLY WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS.
AND FRIDAY SHOWERS CONTINUE TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH A SHORT WAVE SLOWLY TRACK NORTHEAST OVER THE NORTH HALF OF THE STATE AND ALONG A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. DRIER AIR ON NORTH THEN NORTHEAST WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL WORK INTO THE AREA TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. ADDED FOG TO THE NORTH AS THE HIGH PRESSURE REGION BUILDS INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION. NORTHERN AREAS MAY TURN OUT TO BE WARMER IF MORE SUNSHINE.
357 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2015 ALOFT: A RIDGE IS OVER THE PLAINS WITH TROFS OF THE ERN AND WRN USA. WITH THE RIDGE REBUILDING IN ITS WAKE WITH RISING HEIGHTS. A SYNOPTIC COOL FRONT EXTENDED NE FROM THIS LOW THRU NEB-IA-WI. AS THE UPR TROF DEPARTS. THE RIDGE AXIS ALOFT IS A RED FLAG.
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHWEST WILL BRING COOL WEATHER.
HIGH PRESSURE IS HANGING ON AND CONTINUING TO BRING EXEMPLARY EARLY JUNE WEATHER TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY REGION TODAY. TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY IN MOST AREAS BUT WHEN YOU ARE TALKING ABOUT HIGHS SHY OF 90 WITH LOW HUMIDITY IN JUNE YOU REALLY CANNOT DO TOO MUCH COMPLAINING.
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL ACROSS THE AREA WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PRODUCING STREAMER BRIEF SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST. STREAMER SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER THE LOWER TEXAS GULF WATERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NW INCREASING THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG THE COAST THIS MORNING. A MID LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED OVER NORTHWEST MEXICO AND THE SOUTH CENTRAL UNITED STATES. BUT SUFFICIENT MOISTURE EXISTS IN THE LOWER LEVELS TO SUPPORT ISOLATED COASTAL AND/OR SEA BREEZE SHOWERS THE NEXT 36 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM ANDRES MOISTURE GETS ENTRAINED IN THE S-SW FLOW AHEAD CALIFORNIA TROUGH. FRIDAY WILL BE COOLER BY SEVERAL DEGREES GIVEN SHOWERS AND LESS SUNSHINE. THE CLOSED LOW ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL CONTINUE TO DRAW A BAND OF TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE ANDRES INTO THE AREA.
/ISSUED 942 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2015/ RIDGE CITY WITH UPPER RIDGE AXIS PLANTED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. /ISSUED 422 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2015/ THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WAS CONTINUING TO BUILD OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE STATE THIS MORNING. A CONSENSUS OF THE THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS FORECASTS ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT THROUGH MID MORNING. THE MODELS THEN BUILD THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER SE TEXAS BEGINNING ON FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL LIKELY END EVEN THE VERY LOW RAIN CHANCES AND LEAD TO DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES TO BE SLIGHTLY WARMER INTO THE LOWER 90S OVER THE INLAND AREAS.
MODELS SHOW A SERIES OF MID LEVEL SHORT WAVES WORKING OVER THE TOP OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. WITH 850 HPA TEMPS IN THE LOWER TEENS.
WEAK DEFORMATION MAY SUPPORT A FEW SHOWERS IN THE CONVERGENCE ZONE OVER THE RIDGES AND IN VICINITY OF MORGANTOWN THIS EVENING. THE PERSISTENT SOUTHEAST FLOW INTO THE RIDGES WILL BE ABSENT FRIDAY. KEEPING POPS IN THE HIGH CHANCE CATEGORY AS GENERAL OMEGA FIELDS LOOK RATHER WEAK AND EXPECT LITTLE ORGANIZATION WITH THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO WEAK OVERALL FLOW.
134 PM CDT Thu Jun 4 2015 An upper level ridge of high pressure will build over Texas through the weekend. These areas will be furthest away from the center of the ridge closest to a surface lee trough.
300 PM EDT THU JUN 4 2015 CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER SOUTH CAROLINA CONTINUES TO DRIFT EAST AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS NUDGING NORTHEAST INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. AS THE UPPER LOW OVER SOUTH CAROLINA CONTINUES TO PULL AWAY WE WILL COME UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ON THE NE SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE TO OUR WEST. UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT CAUSED THE GLOOMY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO OPEN AND MOVE EAST AS WE BRIEFLY TRANSITION TO A MORE WEAK NW FLOW ALOFT.
313 PM EDT THU JUN 4 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD MOVES OFFSHORE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH AND MOVE SOUTH INTO THE MOUNTAINS LATE FRIDAY AND THEN THE REST OF THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT.
LATEST IR IMAGERY OVERLAID WITH MODEL STREAMLINE ANALYSIS(700-200 MB) AS OF 200 PM THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUE TO DEPICT THE PRESENCE OF A SLOW MOVING COLD CORE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PARKED OVER THE CAROLINA PIEDMONT REGION. THE DEEPEST MID AND UPPER RIDGING REMAINS ACROSS LOWER CENTRAL AMERICA. AT THE SURFACE AND IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE LEVELS. WITH WEAK RIDGING ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA ATTM.
420 PM MDT THU JUN 4 2015 MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS THIS EVENING WILL BE THE ONGOING FLOODING ACROSS NIOBRARA COUNTY AND THE SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS.
308 PM MDT THU JUN 4 2015 STORMS JUST STARTING TO GET ROLLING THIS AFTERNOON WITH INITIAL ISOLATED STORMS OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OF CYS RIDGE AND FURTHER SOUTH INTO ELBERT COUNTY. OVERALL STORM COVERAGE WILL BE LESS THIS AFTERNOON VS YESTERDAY AS AREA STILL UNDER SYNOPTIC SCALE SUBSIDENCE WITH WEAK RIDGING.
HOWEVER OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP WITH INCREASING WINDS OVER THE RIDGES IN WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY AND COASTAL MOUNTAINS IN SOUTHWEST OREGON.
406 PM EDT THU JUN 4 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH ON FRIDAY AND CROSS THE STATE FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MAINE WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT TO THE EAST TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST FRIDAY AND CROSS THE REGION LATE IN THE DAY. FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE MAIN UPPER TROF AXIS E OF OUR FA LATER WED. TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER ON MON THAN SUN WITH WARM ADVCN SHWRS/RNFL MON AFTN AND EVE.
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY WE REMAIN UNDER HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. HOWEVER WE WILL STILL SEE IMPULSES WORKING THEIR WAY THROUGH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING.
151 PM EDT THU JUN 4 2015 A PRESSURE TROUGH WILL BE NEAR THE COAST THROUGH FRIDAY. THE LOW WILL BE OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT AND JUST OFF THE COAST FRIDAY. MOISTURE HAS BECOME SOMEWHAT SHALLOW IN THE WAKE OF WIDESPREAD PREVIOUS RAIN AND MUCH OF THE CONVERGENCE HAS SHIFTED OFF THE COAST ASSOCIATED WITH THE INVERTED TROUGH. THE HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS DISPLAY GENERALLY SCATTERED COVERAGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH COME CONCENTRATION IN THE COASTAL PLAIN. SLOW STORM MOVEMENT NEAR THE UPPER LOW STILL SUPPORTS A POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY RAIN. CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES A LITTLE FARTHER AWAY. THE MODELS SHOW RIDGING EXTENDING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH WEAKENING WITH THE INVERTED TROUGH SHIFTING FARTHER OFF THE COAST FRIDAY.
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE FORECAST AS UPPER RIDGING IS IN PLACE OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
UPPER LOW CONTINUES SLOWLY SHIFT TO THE EAST AS IT FILLS AND WEAKENS. WHILE MOST OF THE PRECIP HAS BEEN SHUNTED TO THE EAST OF THE RIDGES. WITH THE HIGHEST POPS REMAINING EAST OF OHIO. WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD END SHOWER ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT AND SCATTER OUT CLOUDS EXCEPT OVER THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN EDGES OF THE FORECAST AREA. ESPECIALLY ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE RIDGES. STILL TIMING THE COLD FRONT FOR FRIDAY EVENING. SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH BEHIND THE COLD FRONT LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.
MOSTLY TO PARTLY SUNNY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AS OF MID AFTERNOON THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND WEAK RIDGING ALOFT. AFTER SEVERAL DAYS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A STUBBORN CLOSED UPPER LOW, THAT FEATURE HAS NOW MOVED OVER TO THE SC COAST. WITH THE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE, READINGS WERE ABLE TO REACH NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS, OR INTO THE LOW 80S. OTHERWISE, LOOK FOR LOWS TO BE IN THE LOW/MID 60S WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT RIGHT AROUND OR IN THE LOW/MID 80S AND LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL MAINLY BE IN THE MID 60S.
846 PM MST SUN NOV 22 2015 SURFACE DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID 20S ACROSS EAST CENTRAL WY AND THE NORTHERN NE PANHANDLE THIS EVENING.
THE PANHANDLES ARE SEEING TEMPS IN THE LOWER 60S RIGHT NOW. THE LONGWAVE RIDGE OVER THE SIERRA NEVADA MOUNTAINS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MIGRATE EASTWARD AND CONTINUE THE TREND OF CLEAR SKIES WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW.
AND WILL LEAD TO WARMER TEMPERATURES. THE COMBO OF MOISTURE/WARM AIR ADVECTION AND CLOUDS WILL LEAD TO MUCH WARMER MINIMUMS. VARIOUS ENSEMBLES MEMBERS CONTINUE TO SHOW CLOSED LOW EITHER LINGERING OR REDEVELOPING IN SOUTHWEST US. THE TWO SPECIFIC GFS MEMBERS WITH THE CLOSED LOW BRING FRONT THROUGH THE AREA SIMILAR TO INITIALIZATION GRIDS. THIS WOULD SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR EITHER FREEZING OR FROZEN PRECIPITATION LINGERING AND/OR REDEVELOPING DURING THE WEEKEND. SOME WEAK LEE TROUGHING HAS DEVELOPED AND WILL ALLOW LIGHT WEST AND SOUTHWEST WINDS TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT.
956 PM EST SUN NOV 22 2015 A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT AND REMAIN THROUGH MONDAY. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA ON MONDAY AND BRING INCREASING CLOUDINESS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY MONDAY NIGHT.
LEE TROFFING SHOULD KEEP MIN TEMPS IN THE 30S ALONG THE LOWER EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SE MTS/WEST OF I-25. SO WENT SLIGHTLY WARMER FOR HIGH TEMPS.
637 PM EST SUN NOV 22 2015 WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL INCREASE CLOUD COVER MONDAY. BEFORE BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRY WEATHER AND SLOWLY WARMING TEMPERATURES THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK. BROAD UPPER TROUGHING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. THOUGH BUILDING SURFACE RIDGING TONIGHT SHOULD BRING MAINLY DRY WEATHER AS ANY REMAINING LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS DISSIPATE UNDER THE INCREASING SUBSIDENCE.
504 PM CST SUN NOV 22 2015 FOR 00Z TAFS /ISSUED 231 PM CST SUN NOV 22 2015/ THE LARGE SURFACE THROUGH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.
607 PM EST SUN NOV 22 2015 COLDER AND DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE REGION FROM THE CENTRAL/LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD MID TO LATE WEEK. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL SWING THROUGH OUR REGION LATE TONIGHT THEN SHIFT OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON MONDAY. THIS SHOULD HELP KEEP WINDS UP A BIT OVERNIGHT AND ESPECIALLY OVER THE MUCH WARMER LAKES WATERS. CURRENT LAKE WATER READINGS INDICATE TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW/MID 60S. EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE 30S WITH WINDS AROUND 4 TO 7 MPH.
652 PM EST SUN NOV 22 2015 HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING INTO THE REGION. FOR MONDAY THE RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST AND A QUICK RETURN FLOW WILL START WITH A SOUTHWEST WIND INCREASING UP THE VALLEY.
1014 PM EST SUN NOV 22 2015 HIGH PRESSURE PASSES MONDAY MORNING. WARM FRONT SCOOTS PAST MONDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES MIDWEEK. COLD FRONT CROSSES TO END THE WEEK. THE UPPER TROF AXIS IS STILL TO THE WEST. THE UPPER TROF AXIS CROSSES TONIGHT WITH THE STRATOCU ERODING AWAY FROM NW TO SE. TRIED TO HIT THE TYPICAL COLD SPOTS WITH SOME MID TEENS WHILE THE WARM RIVERS KEEP METRO SITES IN THE LOW 20S.
THE HIGH CLOUDS OVER SW IDAHO WILL MOVE TO THE EAST BY ABOUT MIDNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE.
TEMPERATURES ARE AS MUCH AS 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN THEY WERE 24 HOURS AGO AT THIS TIME. LOWS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOWER 20S TO AROUND 30 TONIGHT. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW SUBFREEZING LOWS.
700 PM EST SUN NOV 22 2015 A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT AND REMAIN THROUGH MONDAY. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA ON MONDAY AND WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDINESS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY MONDAY NIGHT.
642 PM EST SUN NOV 22 2015 COLDER AND DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE REGION FROM THE CENTRAL/LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD MID TO LATE WEEK. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL SWING THROUGH OUR REGION LATE TONIGHT THEN SHIFT OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON MONDAY. THIS SHOULD HELP KEEP WINDS UP A BIT OVERNIGHT AND ESPECIALLY OVER THE MUCH WARMER LAKES WATERS. EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE 30S WITH WINDS AROUND 4 TO 7 MPH.
CURRENT OBS SHOW TEMPS APPROACHING OR ALREADY BELOW FREEZING. HAVE DECIDED TO MAINTAIN THE CURRENT FORECAST WHICH IS A COUPLE DEGREES COOLER THAN SEVERAL GLOBAL MODELS AND MODEL ENSEMBLES. AS FREEZING CONDITIONS HAVE ALREADY BEEN PREVIOUSLY OBSERVED IN ALL COUNTIES IN THE HUN CWA. 77 /ISSUED 231 PM CST SUN NOV 22 2015/ THE LARGE SURFACE THROUGH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.
The large scale pattern featured a broad and deep long wave trough dominating the eastern CONUS with upper ridging just off the Pacific coast. One short wave was sitting off of Oregon, underneath the broad ridge, while a stronger short wave trough was quickly moving east along the Aleutians. Plenty of sunshine and west to southwest winds will allow highs on Monday to climb nicely, ranging from the middle 50s in far northeast KS to the lower 60s in central and east central KS.
636 PM EST SUN NOV 22 2015 CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DROPS SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK UP INTO THE 50S BY THANKSGIVING AS SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT.
902 PM EST SUN NOV 22 2015 COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. SKIES WILL CLEAR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH TONIGHT AS DRIER COOLER AIR ADVECTS ACROSS THE REGION ON NORTHERLY WINDS. WILL DROP THE HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AS NORTH TO NORTHEAST TRAJECTORY OF WINDS IS NOT FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG OUR COAST.