Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Flash flood watch for northern Middle Tennessee today and this Upper trough over the area has moved little last several hours with convection once again firing over illinois and sinking southward down into western Kentucky. Synoptically warm front is currently draped from central Illinois into Ohio with cold front running southward from west central Illinois down through southwest Missouri into north central Texas. with several watches out along and ahead of cold front. Cold front will pull east and be along the Mississippi river by 18z today and into western Middle Tennessee by 00z.
142 AM EDT THU MAY 12 2016 Periodic shower and thunderstorm chances will persist until the passage of a Friday morning cold front.
617 AM EDT THU MAY 12 2016 Cold front will continue moving through the central US today with a weak frontal boundary across the Mid Atlantic states. Cold front will move into the Midlands Friday morning and offshore Friday afternoon. This will bring showers and thunderstorms to the area today through Friday morning with drier and cooler air moving in for the weekend. expect the showers and thunderstorms to expand in coverage through the day as a cold front moves through the MS Valley. however the cold front will be moving into the mountains during the early morning hours. Cold front will move east of the forecast area by early afternoon Friday with high pressure and drier air building in Friday evening and night.
154 AM EDT THU MAY 12 2016 High pressure will provide one more day of nice weather on Thursday, before a storm system sliding out of the Great Lakes spreads showers and cool temperatures across our region.
332 AM CDT THU MAY 12 2016 CLOSED LOW OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA AND ANOTHER OVER MANITOBA WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING INTO THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY. THERE IS A RIDGE FROM THE EAST COAST THROUGH THE HUDSON BAY. UPPER LOW OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA WITH TROUGH INTO EAST TEXAS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST WITH NORTHERN PLAINS IN NORTHWEST FLOW. RIDGE PUSHING EAST INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA AND WITH CLEAR SKIES GOOD INSOLATION. HIGHS ABOUT 5F DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY.
630 AM EDT THU MAY 12 2016 Periodic shower and thunderstorm chances will persist until the passage of a Friday morning cold front.
Low morning clouds are expected to break up this afternoon as the morning inversion lifts, with high temperatures again climbing into the low 80s along the coast and mid 80s to near 90 inland. Attention then turns this afternoon to an approaching cold front evident on 05Z/12 AM CDT surface analysis stretching from the Permian Basin into southeastern Oklahoma.
A warm front south of the Erie lakeshore will push north later today. Meanwhile a cold front across the mid Mississippi valley will move east across the area tonight.
401 AM EDT THU MAY 12 2016 A ridge of high pressure will remain over the north country through tonight. A cold front will move slowly east from the eastern Great Lakes on Friday and will bring rain showers to the north country Friday and Friday night.
253 AM CDT THU MAY 12 2016 The surface trof will be nearly all the way through the CWFA by 12Z. The drier air is lagging somewhat behind the wind shift and surface trof. Cold air advection along with abundant cloud cover should keep temperatures from warming much higher than the low to mid 70s. Carney High pressure over the eastern Plains at 00Z Friday will move quickly southeast into Arkansas by Friday morning. The only limiting factor will be boundary layer moisture since the high pressure system to our south will be blocking strong low level moisture transport. Even with pooling ahead of the front we might not see dewpoints higher than the low to mid 50s. The high pressure system that builds in behind Friday's cold front will be a truly cold airmass for mid May.
That pattern consists of a broad upper trough over the center of the nation. The northerly flow on the back side of the trough will help to push a cold front into the region later today and tonight generating a broad area of showers and thunderstorms. Additionally weak short wave energy over the Lower Ohio Valley is pressing into the Mid South this morning and there is a good possibility some of this action may build into the forecast area after daybreak with continuation through mid day.
421 AM EDT THU MAY 12 2016 High pressure will persist through tonight.
623 AM EDT THU MAY 12 2016 A warm front south of the Erie lakeshore will push north later today. Meanwhile a cold front across the mid Mississippi valley will move east across the area tonight.
Warm and dry conditions are expected for today and tomorrow, as an upper level ridge remains in place.
Increased cloud cover and cooler air mass will lead to afternoon highs in the 70s and 80s.
A flat ridge was building over the northern Rockies this morning. This will provide a mostly dry day with warmer temperatures. The projected warm up today will be short lived as a strong cold front will drive through southern Montana this evening. The cold front will rip through this evening and turn winds north to northeast. Will keep highs in the lower to mid 50s.
127 AM EDT THU MAY 12 2016 High pressure will continue ridging from off the Southeast Coast westward along the Gulf Coast through Thursday. The ridging has limited moisture in the forecast area. Moisture will increase in the area ahead of a cold front approaching from the northwest.
606 AM EDT THU MAY 12 2016 A warm front will lift north this morning bringing chances for showers and thunderstorms. Better chances for stronger thunderstorms arrive mid afternoon through early evening across northeast Indiana, south-central Lower Michigan, and northwest Ohio as a cold front swings through.
345 AM PDT THU MAY 12 2016 High pressure will keep skies generally clear and temperatures above normal through Friday.
409 AM EDT THU MAY 12 2016 Periodic shower and thunderstorm chances will persist until the passage of a Friday morning cold front.
/issued 453 PM EDT WED MAY 11 2016/ High pressure will dominate through the period. A weak cold front will stall over North Florida Friday into the weekend, bringing low rain chances to South Florida along with a slight chance for thunderstorms. Subtropical ridge is dominating regional weather this afternoon, although H2-H3 jet is streaming cirrus eastward across South Florida. A cold front reaches the Florida Panhandle on Friday. The associated mid/upper level trough will bring subtle height falls over the Peninsula so slightly greater coverage of showers is possible and a few thunderstorms cant be ruled out over the interior.
1120 PM MDT WED MAY 11 2016 This morning's mid level hand analysis showed a fairly deep trough swinging across the northern plains with cooler air being re-enforced across the Rockies and Inter-mountain West. Normally the coldest air will be found with this high but drier air invading from the Southwest will help temperatures in the 4 Corners region drop steadily after sunset. Expect freezing temperatures to affect portions of Montezuma County where sensitive vegetation could temporarily be at risk so have hoisted a freeze warning above 5500 feet. A warmer and drier weather pattern will then be setting up to end the week with an upper ridge building across the west and translating toward the Rockies. Lows will also be moderating Thursday night with freezing temperatures in the lower elevations not a concern.
105 AM EDT THU MAY 12 2016 A ridge of high pressure will remain across the area into Friday. A trough of low pressure will approach Friday afternoon and cross the area Friday evening. A ridge of high pressure both surface and aloft will maintain dry weather overnight tonight as clear skies allow temperatures to fall into the 30s across the area. Some patchy high clouds streaming over the ridge may stray into far northern and eastern areas late tonight. Thursday will be sunny and becoming much warmer as the ridge build in from the west and boundary layer temps warm. The first of two cold fronts swings into eastern Maine late Friday afternoon into Friday night.
Thunderstorms and Slow Moving Cold Front. A weak cold front will continue to move slowly south across West Central Texas today, and this boundary will serve as a focus for continued showers and thunderstorms. As the low-level jet, which is currently around 40 knots from the south, weakens over the next several hours, the severe thunderstorm and flash flood threats should also diminish.
Upper level ridge will strengthen today and push the precipitation track farther northward. Warmer afternoon highs means warm overnight lows as well, and do not expect a frost advisory to be necessary tonight. By Fri afternoon, moisture being siphoned off of a low at the Oregon coast will make it through the ridge, bring clouds, and threaten with showers and thunderstorms in the extreme north end of the forecast area. Except for some gusty afternoon wind, wind should remain very light under the high.
416 AM EDT THU MAY 12 2016 A ridge of high pressure will remain over the north country through tonight. A cold front will move slowly east from the eastern Great Lakes on Friday and will bring rain showers to the north country Friday and Friday night.
313 AM EDT THU MAY 12 2016 A ridge of high pressure will remain across the area into Friday. A trough of low pressure will approach late Friday afternoon and cross the area Friday evening. Another quiet day on tap across the Pine Tree State as the region remains entrenched under high pressure.
408 AM CDT THU MAY 12 2016 A cold front has pushed south of the area and will result in cool moist low level northeasterly flow through the day. An upper level trough will be shifting off to the east this morning so chances will gradually dwindle. A second front is progged to push southward into the southern Texas Panhandle late Friday night ahead of an approaching upper level ridge.
Cooler with clouds a chance of showers or thundestorms northern mountains over the weekend. Strong upper level high pressure ridge over the western U.
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT INTO THE DELTA THIS AFTERNOON AND THE BOUNDARY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE EVENING HOURS. THE COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA BY MIDNIGHT, BUT THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE DISSIPATING BY EARLY MORNING.
Axis of high pressure ridge extends ENE from central Florida into the Atlantic, with light to calm winds currently in place. Highs will once again range from the low to mid 80s along the coast to 88-90F inland, with lows mainly in the mid-upper 60s.
A cold front will approach from the west early Friday, then cross the region on Friday afternoon and night. However, convection continues to redevelop across a southwestward sinking outflow and/or cold front across the northern coastal plain/northeast piedmont. Lows by Thursday morning expected to range from the lower 60s ne behind the cold front. There continues to be more than enough spread in the model depiction of instability for friday as the cold front pushes into the state. The highest instability may actually be limited to the far eastern zones as considerable moisture available (pw's around 1. The timing of the cold front is not favorable for strong heating either. We will maintain the highest POP in the east with lower POP in the west.
Current Situation and Analysis -- A deep layer mean anticyclone persists over the region, with large-scale subsidence aloft maintaining a robust subsidence inversion near 10,000 feet elevation, per Key West evening rawinsonde data. The lower-tropospheric layer mean wind will average about 010 degrees at 11 knots, so any showers which develop along sea/bay breeze collisions, mergers, or intersections over the Everglades will move southward over Florida Bay and toward the upper and middle Keys. Meanwhile, there is at least a chance for some cumulus cloud line formation over the lower Keys, at least early this afternoon, before the low-level winds back to a more northerly direction. Dry air at low altitudes will be a significant limiting factor in both cases; hence, the low measurable rain chances.
320 AM EDT THU MAY 12 2016 High pressure will crest across the area today before sliding offshore tonight and Friday. A cold front will approach the region on Friday, then slowly cross the region Friday night.
332 AM CDT THU MAY 12 2016 A cold front is making slow progress across central Illinois early this morning, and is currently in the vicinity of the I-55 corridor. Otherwise, it will be cooler and less humid today behind the front, with most locations topping out in the lower 70s. Cooler lows tonight in the upper 40s and lower 50s which area pretty close to normal for mid May. Showers likely Friday evening with scattered thunderstorms, then diminishing from nw to se during overnight Friday night as a northern stream system tracks ESE into the southern Great Lakes Friday night and pulls a cold front se across central IL. Highs Fri in the upper 60s and lower 70s, just a bit cooler than today's expected highs.
01 A DRY AND STABLE AIR MASS WILL SPREAD OVER THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD FRONT.
454 AM EDT THU MAY 12 2016 Cold front will continue moving through the central US today with a weak frontal boundary across the Mid Atlantic states. Cold front will move into the Midlands Friday morning and offshore Friday afternoon. This will bring showers and thunderstorms to the area today through Friday morning with drier and cooler air moving in for the weekend. expect the showers and thunderstorms to expand in coverage through the day as a cold front moves through the MS Valley. however the cold front will be moving into the mountains during the early morning hours. Cold front will move east of the forecast area by early afternoon Friday with high pressure and drier air building in Friday evening and night.
Latest sfc analysis shows the cold front arriving at KMAF, w/convection along this feature further east. /issued 329 AM CDT THU MAY 12 2016/ Much cooler today behind a cold front with scattered showers and thunderstorms possible. At the surface a cold front/outflow boundary continues to push quickly south across the area with gusty northerly winds behind it. The rest of the area will see much cooler conditions with highs struggling to reach 80 degrees. This front is associated with an upper trough slowly moving across the Northern Plains into the Western Great Lakes. Upper ridging will then develop to our west through the end of the week putting us in a weak NW mid level flow.
643 AM EDT THU MAY 12 2016 A warm front will lift north this morning bringing low chances for showers and isolated thunderstorms. Better chances for stronger thunderstorms arrive mid afternoon through early evening across northeast Indiana, south-central Lower Michigan, and northwest Ohio as a cold front swings through.
The thickness trough will pass tonight but skies will likely become clear given the dry air.
115 AM EDT THU MAY 12 2016 Temperatures will trend modestly warmer through the end of the week.
An upper level low will bring a chance for showers late Friday afternoon with a slight chance for thunderstorms. Showers will continue for the weekend with much cooler temperatures as the upper low slowly moves over the area. Heights have begun to build across Oregon this morning as the upper low located around 140W slowly moves towards our area. Still expect the low clouds to clear pretty quickly given the shallow marine layer. Weak onshore flow will keep temperatures confined to the upper 60s along the coast while the inland valleys warm into the low to mid 80s.
411 PM CDT TUE AUG 23 2016 A broad upper ridge centered over the Southeast U. Although most of the deep layer moisture plume has been moved away by the ridge, southerly flow off the Gulf of Mexico has aided in the development of isolated convection associated with the sea breeze. Conditions on Wednesday will likely be similar, excpet the center of the ridge should be in Mississippi, which will likely limit convective development even more.
200 PM EDT TUE AUG 23 2016 Increasingly warmer and more humid air as the week progresses. before the next cold front approaches later in the week. Flat cu field centered over the high terrain will dissipate this evening for a mostly clear sky areawide. though the low level flow increases out of the SE near 20 kts late helping to keep it in check some. A warm frontal boundary will cross on Wednesday with an increase in cloud cover as well as humidity. Warm frontal boundary will move northeast through area Wednesday. with warmer temperatures.
but with slightly warmer temperatures and an increase in cloud cover.
As the high continues to slowly shift eastward tonight and especially Wednesday, this moisture will eventually pivot back into eastern Kentucky with the humidity on the increase. low level moisture should start to increase and this could aid in a shower or two along the high terrain of Tennessee and Virginia and could sneak just far enough north for a shower to develop in southern Kentucky.
An upper level low pressure system will drift east across southern Saskatchewan through tonight.
Plenty of instability available in the lower levels in a warm and muggy airmass, but how much severe weather will manifest will be contingent on a diurnal component out far ahead of the synoptic boundary. Wed evening looks to start out with an ongoing or developing storm complex across central Illinois, due to the close proximity of an approaching cold front from the W-NW. Have trended with the highest rain chances (80%) in our NW tier of counties, with likely 60-70% chances down to the I-72 corridor.
132 PM EDT TUE AUG 23 2016 High pressure will remain centered just east of the region today, providing dry conditions. A warm front will move into the area on Wednesday, along with an increase in moisture.
322 PM CDT TUE AUG 23 2016 Latest water vapor satellite imagery indicates closed upper level low over southern Saskatchewan Canada and upper level ridge over the Upper Midwest. 12z NAM is slower in movement of surface cold front. 12z NAM develops scattered convection across parts of northeast Iowa and southwest Wisconsin along surface cold front with GFS/ECMWF further south and out of forecast area. 12z GFS/ECMWF solution of cold front.
405 PM EDT TUE AUG 23 2016 As high pressure works off to the east tonight into tomorrow, low level moisture will be on the increase.
Highs wed will will be in the lower to middle 90s inland and the upper 80s to lower 90s along the immediate coast.
255 PM MDT TUE AUG 23 2016 The upper level trough will make its way east through the state through Wednesday. A cold frontal boundary that pushed in from the NW earlier today brought increasing stable conditions onto the plains along with gusty winds. Models show persistent QG lift and increasing specific humidity and PW values over the SW portions of the state reaching into the higher elevations of the CWA and Park county. For Wednesday temperatures will be cooler with highs only reaching into the mid 70s. Scattered showers will be continuing over the high terrain Wednesday evening.
High pressure will move off to the east today, keeping southerly winds over the area. Temps will be a degree or two warmer than yesterday, while overnight lows will be warmer, only falling to around 70. Morning MCS activity will be lifting northeast on Wednesday as the upper trough moves eastward from Illinois.
114 PM EDT TUE AUG 23 2016 High pressure will move off the east coast Wednesday.
343 PM CDT TUE AUG 23 2016 A cooler Wednesday highlights the short term forecast. Western and central North Dakota will remain in the dry slot of the low across southeast Saskatchewan through the evening and much of the overnight.
314 PM EDT TUE AUG 23 2016 Cool high pressure will build over the area tonight and will move offshore into the Atlantic Wednesday, with warmer temperatures arriving on southwesterly winds.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms can be expected over mainly the higher elevations of the Sierra through this evening. The low pressure system which crossed southern California overnight is now over northeastern AZ and is continuing to move east and away from our area.
However, do think that the old frontal boundary across southern GA/FL panhandle will serve to focus shra/tsra this afternoon and the highest pops will remain across the southern quarter of the CWFA. The ridge aloft builds over the southern states Wednesday with a shift in the best moisture occurring favoring n and w GA. BDL High pressure aloft and at the surface will influence extended periods weather.
202 PM EDT TUE AUG 23 2016 High pressure will persist over the region through midweek allowing temperatures to climb back above normal. Another weak cold front will approach the Western Carolinas from the northwest toward the end of the work week, with high pressure building back to our north in the front's wake. the short term fcst picks up at 12Z on Wednesday with mid to upper level ridging building over the SE region and persisting well into the medium range.
342 PM MDT TUE AUG 23 2016 An upper level low pressure system continues to pass over the area this afternoon. The visible satellite image shows this low centered over roughly Northeastern Arizona, sliding into Northwestern New Mexico. The 1200Z ECMWF and GFS20 have initialized well with the current synoptic weather pattern and move today's low pressure system northeast across Colorado overnight.
310 PM CDT TUE AUG 23 2016 Main forecast challenge is thunderstorm potential along the sfc cold front late this afternoon into the early evening. The core of the low level jet has shifted into NW MN, with a few elevated echoes around or NE of KGFK. The latest high resolution models show some shower and tstm development along the cold front by 5 to 6 pm, from south of KGFK to around Valley City. Other than the storms, south winds ahead of the cold front will stay gusty into the evening, and behind the front northwest winds will be the same way over the Devils Lake region.
At the beginning of the period, mid/upper level ridge looks to become centered over northern portions of the forecast area.
Already seeing wind gusts of 25 to 30 MPH across Converse County this morning with humidities in the low 20 percent range. Decided to add FWZ 301 into the Red Flag Warning as the cooler/moist air not going to move in until this evening. A weak front will push across the CWA this morning but the cooler air will lag behind the front so still on the warm side for today. Should see an increase in mainly high clouds today from the southwest as moisture around an upper low near Las Vegas gets advected northeastward.
1227 PM CDT TUE AUG 23 2016 At 3 AM, the short wave trough that brought the scattered showers and storms to northern Wisconsin on Tuesday afternoon and evening was moving east across eastern Upper and northern Lower Michigan. This is due to this system being picked up by a northern stream short wave trough. As a result, there is only scattered convection along the trough as it moves through the area.
117 PM EDT TUE AUG 23 2016 High pressure will bring pleasant weather to the region through Wednesday.
/ISSUED 303 AM CDT TUE AUG 23 2016/ North and Central Texas should continue to see a relatively dry pattern for much of the week, as the subtropical upper high over the southeast CONUS continues to expanding westward over the area. Meanwhile, a broad longwave upper trough was over the western U.
144 PM EDT TUE AUG 23 2016 Upper air pattern consists of a closed 500 mb low over southern Alberta with a trough in New England and a 500 mb ridge across the sern U.
236 PM MDT TUE AUG 23 2016 Upper level analysis has deep closed low across southern Saskatchewan with dry west to southwest flow across the Northern Plains. At the surface, strong CAA occurring at the moment as cold front pushes southeast and Canadian high pressure moves into Montana. Some 30s will be possible in the higher Black Hills. Canadian upper low will slowly push east into Manitoba as upper flow remains westerly across the area, keeping a majority of the area mild and dry.
413 PM CDT TUE AUG 23 2016 Much less activity today as the ridge aloft has help to keep precipitation in check.