Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
344 AM MDT SUN MAY 8 2016 AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE CENTERED OVER WYOMING TODAY. THE LOW IS BRINGING RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS TO JACKSON AND NORTHERN LARIMER COUNTIES THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS AND DENVER METRO AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER UNDER THE CLOUDS NORTH TOWARDS WYOMING. A WEAK WAVE EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS PROGGED TO DROP SOUTHEAST AND INCREASE THE SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OVERNIGHT. LOOK FOR CLEARING SKIES AT NIGHT AND WARMER MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TO BE RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL READINGS.
SOME UNCERTAINTY DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVING FROM THE NORTH. MUCH DRIER SFC DEWPOINTS IS MOVING INTO NORTHERN IA AS THE HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES.
331 AM CDT SUN MAY 8 2016 WATER VAPOR EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWING A MID-LEVEL LONG WAVE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL ONTARIO THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THAT TROUGH EXITS EAST THIS MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FOR DRY/PLEASANT CONDITIONS THIS MOTHERS DAY. PLAN ON TEMPERATURES TOPPING OFF IN THE UPPER 60S TO THE LOWER 70S. MOISTURE FEED/LIFT AHEAD OF THE LOW LOOKS TO PUSH SCATTERED SHOWERS INTO AREAS MAINLY SOUTH OF I-90 LATE TONIGHT AND A BIT FURTHER NORTHEAST MAINLY SOUTH OF I-94 ON MONDAY. THE CLOSED OPENS INTO A TROUGH.
Ridging aloft and high pressure at the surface will result in dry, warm weather for the short term period. Temperatures will be a few degrees above average, highs in the mid 80s and lows in the low 60s.
WARMER AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO RETURN ON MONDAY AND REMAIN FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. THE UPPER LOW THAT HAS INFLUENCED THE WEATHER FOR THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS WILL ALLOW FOR ONE MORE DAY OF POSSIBLE SHOWERS AND MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS THIS SUNDAY. THE DISTRICT REMAINS UNDER A CYCLONIC FLOW PATTERN WITH A GOOD 80 KNOT JET MAX OVER THE REGION AND RIDING AROUND THE UPPER LOW. MODELS PLACE THE UPPER LOW OVER THE ROCKIES WITH THE DISTRICT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF NEG VORT ADVECTION.
The low will cause the low level winds to back to southeasterly at 15 to 25 mph ahead of a dryline. Much of the severe threat should be over by around midnight north and east of Dodge City as the upper trough moves northeastward. Upper low drifts NE to central South Dakota, with cool cyclonic flow persisting over Kansas.
417 AM MDT SUN MAY 8 2016 UPPER LEVEL LOW REPOSITIONING ITSELF THIS MORNING ACROSS SOUTHERN WYOMING WITH SECONDARY CIRCULATION OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA EXPECTED TO EJECT EAST NORTHEAST INTO THE FOUR CORNERS THIS MORNING. THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS TO OUR SOUTHERN ZONES TODAY WITH NORTHERN ACTIVITY INCREASING AS WELL AS WE SEE MOISTURE WRAP AROUND THE DEEP UPPER LOW IN WYOMING. ALTHOUGH ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS AND GENERALLY AT THE TOP OF OUR PASSES. PRECIPITATION WINDS DOWN FAIRLY QUICKLY MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH FORCING BECOMING PRIMARILY OROGRAPHIC WITH SHOWERS SHRINKING IN COVERAGE TO MAINLY THE HIGHER PEAKS ALONG THE DIVIDE.
AN INCREASINGLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL COMBINE WITH A PACIFIC COLD FRONT TO SPREAD A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA AFTER 20Z. A QUASI-STATIONERY UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN CONTINUES TO SPIN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHWEST MONTANA. SUNDAY WILL BE WARMER AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROF THAT APPROACHES NORTHWEST MONTANA. A PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE SUNDAY RESULTING IN SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE UPPER TROF CROSSES THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE MONDAY. NORTH WINDS WILL BRING IN MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND THE LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD OF WIDESPREAD STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION.
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TODAY. A DEEP MID TO UPPER LEVEL THROUGH OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD WITH A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINNING TO BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TODAY.
GENERALLY COOLER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS FOR ANOTHER MORNING ACROSS ECFL. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE WARMER THAN RECENT NIGHTS. MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS CTRL-SOUTH FL AND THE BAHAMAS THROUGH TUE BEFORE SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING ACROSS THE SERN CONUS START TO FLATTEN THE RIDGE BY WED. FLAT/ZONAL FLOW WILL BECOME CYCLONIC AS A BROAD/LOW AMPLITUDE MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO FL FRI NIGHT AND THROUGH THE REGION ON SAT. SOME DRYING INDICATED FOR SUN BEHIND THE TROUGH SO DECIDED TO KEEP IT RAIN-FREE. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING OVER THE AREA WILL KEEP THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAK. FAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING OVER THE AREA. LIGHT S/SE FLOW TONIGHT AS THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE WESTERN ATLC. LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS OVER THE REGION ON MON WILL RETREAT ENEWD INTO THE ATLC THROUGH MID-LATE WEEK.
358 AM CDT SUN MAY 8 2016 AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES WITH THE APEX PASSING OVERHEAD TODAY. SUBSIDENCE FROM THIS RIDGE WILL LEAD TO A DRY FORECAST TODAY WITH NO CHANCE. MOST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S SO WENT WITH A BLEND OF MODELS. A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY LOCATED IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL TRACK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS WILL CAUSE THE RIDGE OVERHEAD TO FLATTENING OUT OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.
614 AM EDT SUN MAY 8 2016 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.
412 AM EDT SUN MAY 8 2016 A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL OUT FROM THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY TO THE CAROLINAS TODAY WHILE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE MOVES ACROSS OUR REGION. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY WORK ITS WAY NORTH AS A WARM FRONT INTO THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY ON MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WAS JUST SOUTH OF THE CWFA EARLY THIS MORNING. THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL OUT FROM THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY TO THE CAROLINAS WHILE HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE MOVES ACROSS OUR REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL VARY FROM THE LOWER 60S WHERE CLOUDS AND THE THREAT OF PCPN IS EXPECTED.
WILL SEE SOME SHOWERS MOVING NORTH INTO THE SOUTHWEST CWA LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY AS A PIECE OF ENERGY EJECTS NORTHEAST OUT OF THE LARGE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CONUS. WILL HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY MONDAY FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER POTENTIAL ACROSS THE CWA AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PULLS OUT INTO THE PLAINS. MODELS SHOWING SOME DIFFERING SOLUTIONS IN REGARDS TO THE EVOLUTION AND STRENGTH OF THE LOW ON MONDAY. WHICH WILL CERTAINLY PLAY A PART IN PRECIP POTENTIAL AND PLACEMENT OF THE HIGHEST POPS.
THE FURTHER EASTWARD PROGRESSION AND DAMPENING OF A 500 MB RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL ESTABLISH A MORE SOUTHWEST-TO-NORTHEAST MID-LEVEL FLOW OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY TODAY. THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN CLOSE ENOUGH TO PROVIDE DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE BRO CWFA.
636 AM EDT SUN MAY 8 2016 COOL AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. A WARM FRONT WILL PUSH NORTH OF THE REGION LATER MONDAY. BRINGING A RETURN TO WARMER TEMPERATURES AND UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEK. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO PUSH NORTHWARD IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT. THE APPROACHING WARM FRONT WILL STRUGGLE TO MAKE MUCH NWD PROGRESS THROUGH TUE. WHILE N OF THE WARM FRONT THEY WILL BE SIMILAR TO THOSE ON MON IN THE MID 60S. MOIST AIR OVERSPREADS THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE WARM FRONT PASSAGE. THE DAILY POSSIBILITY EXISTS FOR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WARM SECTOR GIVEN SUFFICIENT MORNING HEATING TO PROMOTE DESTABILIZATION AND THE TRAVERSAL OF A WEAK UPPER TROUGH. BUT THERE IS A CONSISTENT SIGNAL FOR PRECIPITATION THU AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT NEARS.
343 AM MST SUN MAY 8 2016 A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL ONCE AGAIN TODAY. BETTER CHANCES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY CONDITIONS BUILD INTO THE REGION DURING THE WORKWEEK FOR A GRADUAL WARMING TREND. TEMPS STAY COOL TODAY THOUGH ALL THE GUIDANCE INDICATES SLIGHT WARMING TODAY AS THE LOW STARTS SHIFTING EASTWARD. MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT A PACIFIC RIDGE SLOWLY BUILDING INTO THE WESTERN STATES DURING THE WORKWEEK.
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS OVER OUR REGION THROUGH TONIGHT.
AND WITH THE BLOCKING RIDGE TO THE WEST NOW BREAKING DOWN AND MOVING EAST OVER THE STATE. BUT LOWS WILL BE WARMER THAN SEEN IN PREVIOUS DAYS AS RESULT OF SRLY SFC FLOW AND INCREASING CLOUD COVER. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE STATE FOR SUN AFTERNOON.
THE UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL FINALLY BEGIN ITS TREK EASTWARD TODAY. A SERIES OF VORT MAXES PIVOTING AROUND THE UPPER LOW ARE ONCE AGAIN FACILITATING SOME ELEVATED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PARTS OF PINAL COUNTY. SOLID HEIGHT RISES AND LARGE-SCALE SUBSIDENCE WILL TAKE HOLD SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY AS THE UPPER LOW FINALLY MIGRATES INTO THE GREAT PLAINS.
313 AM EDT SUN MAY 8 2016 A COLD FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS FROM TN TO NC THIS AFTERNOON.
131 AM CDT SUN MAY 8 2016 WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND STREAMFLOW ANALYSIS DEPICTS A RIDGE AXIS WEST OF THE MS RIVER VALLEY.
341 AM MDT SUN MAY 8 2016 A POWERFUL UPPER LOW REMAINS INTACT OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN CONUS THIS AM COURTESY OF A REX BLOCK PREVENTING ANY NOTABLE PROGRESSION OF THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN. PLENTY OF MID-LEVEL ENERGY OVERHEAD TODAY WITH THE LOW MAKING VERY SLOW PROGRESS.
103 AM EDT SUN MAY 8 2016 COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY BEHIND THE FRONT. WITH WARMER AND UNSETTLED WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE WORK WEEK.
THE UPPER TROUGH SWINGS FURTHER EAST DURING THAT TIME AND ALLOWS FOR BETTER SUPPORT OUT WEST.
FOCUS THEN TURNS TO A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS ON MONDAY.
521 AM CDT SUN MAY 8 2016 PATTERN TRANSITION IS WELL UNDERWAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE WHICH HAS HELD SERVE OVER THE REGION FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS IS BEGINNING TO FLATTEN OUT AND SHIFT EAST. ALL IN RESPONSE TO THE EWD PIVOTING UPPER TROUGH OUT WEST. THE EFFECTS OF THE TROUGH ARE ALREADY BEING FELT ACROSS MUCH OF THE SRN PLAINS AS INCREASING SW FLOW PULLS IN PACIFIC MOISTURE. EXPECT GULF MOISTURE INFLUX TO REALLY RAMP UP IN RESPONSE JUST IN TIME FOR THE TROUGH TO SWING OUT ACROSS THE PLAINS BUT IN THE MEANTIME. THE TROUGH WILL REALLY BEGIN TO EJECT NEWD ON MONDAY WHILE TAKING ON A SLIGHT NEGATIVE TILT IN THE PROCESS. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE FURTHER AS THE LOW TRACKS FARTHER EAST ACROSS KANSAS WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT DOWN ALONG THE OK/TX PANHANDLE REGION.
Closed cyclone spinning over Utah this afternoon, with surface dryline sharpening over SE Colorado and eastern New Mexico. First spoke of energy rotating out ahead of the low ignited a band of light showers and isolated thunder, which will continue to move northeast this afternoon. As parent upper low ejects to near Cheyenne, strong surface cyclogenesis is expected across the western CWA. Upper low drifts NE to central South Dakota, with cool cyclonic flow persisting over Kansas.
00Z GFS LOOKS AS THOUGH IT HAS THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE UPPER TROUGH A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH THAN IN LAST NIGHTS RUNS AND MAY BE TIMED IN SUCH A WAY THAT STORMS ARRIVE WITH PEAK HEATING (85-89F INLAND HIGHS) AND MAY SEE STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IN THE NORTH.
A SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW WILL CROSS UTAH TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THE MIDDLE TO LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.
304 AM PDT SUN MAY 8 2016 LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST WITH RESIDUAL MOISTURE BRINGING A FEW SHOWERS TO THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON.
628 AM EDT SUN MAY 8 2016 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL SLIDE EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH WILL STALL NEAR THE SC/NC LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. THEN MOVE BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL RIDGE INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES THROUGH MID-WEEK. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN LATE IN THE WEEK AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. A COLD FRONT OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD TO THE SC/NC BORDER BY EARLY THIS EVENING. KEPT AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN THE LOWER 60S. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT MONDAY.
1038 PM PDT SAT MAY 7 2016 The arrival of a cold front will bring gusty winds to much of the Inland Northwest Sunday.
As low level ridging shifts eastward today, winds will become southerly this afternoon, beginning a return flow of moisture from the northern Gulf waters. Upper level ridging will keep skies clear once again and afternoon temperatures will climb even higher than yesterday-peaking in the upper 80s across inland portions of the area.
516 AM EDT SUN MAY 8 2016 A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH TO THE EAST THIS MORNING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK. THE COLD FRONT IS JUST ABOUT HALFWAY THROUGH THE CWA AND WILL CLEAR THE REST OF IT IN THE MORNING. A TROUGH ALOFT OVER JAMES BAY WILL NOSE INTO THE NORTHEASTERN STATES TODAY. A STRONG VORT MAX/TROUGH WILL CROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND CREATE SOME SHALLOW INSTABILITY AND SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE NORTH. ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS THIS AFTERNOON. SFC RIDGING FROM HUDSON BAY TO THE DELMARVA SHOULD PROVIDE A DRY PERIOD FOR MUCH OF THE REGION MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. BUT GULF MOISTURE WILL BE DRAWN INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND COULD RIDE OVER THE WEAK RIDGE JUST TO OUR WEST.
700 AM EDT SUN MAY 8 2016 A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA TODAY BECOMING STATIONARY TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT. IT WILL MOVE BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT MONDAY NIGHT.
ELONGATED UPPER LOW EXTENDING FROM CO TO SRN CA WILL SLOWLY LIFT NE TOWARDS THE NRN PLAINS THROUGH MONDAY IN RESPONSE TO ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE NW US.
640 AM EDT SUN MAY 8 2016 A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH TO THE EAST THIS MORNING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK. THE COLD FRONT IS JUST ABOUT HALFWAY THROUGH THE CWA AND WILL CLEAR THE REST OF IT IN THE MORNING. A TROUGH ALOFT OVER JAMES BAY WILL NOSE INTO THE NORTHEASTERN STATES TODAY. A STRONG VORT MAX/TROUGH WILL CROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND CREATE SOME SHALLOW INSTABILITY AND SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE NORTH. ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS THIS AFTERNOON. SFC RIDGING FROM HUDSON BAY TO THE DELMARVA SHOULD PROVIDE A DRY PERIOD FOR MUCH OF THE REGION MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. BUT GULF MOISTURE WILL BE DRAWN INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND COULD RIDE OVER THE WEAK RIDGE JUST TO OUR WEST.
STILL THINK REASONABLE CHANCE FOR MORE STORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG AND NORTH OF WARM FRONT. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST OUT OF EASTERN COLORADO AND INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS.
344 AM EDT SUN MAY 8 2016 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.
434 AM EDT SUN MAY 8 2016 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. WILL KEEP THE POPS IN THE LOW CHC RANGE AS THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER KBFD-KPIT MOVES THRU. REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS MORE IN THE WAY OF SCATTERED CONVECTION ALONG THE COLD FRONT AS IT ENTERS MY NWRN ZONES. SOME INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH UNDER THE LOWER HEIGHTS AND BENEATH THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A STRONG 130-140 KT 300 MB JET MAX. DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 30S WILL MAKE IT DIFFICULT TO CREATE MUCH MORE THAN SPRINKLES. THE MIXING WILL TAP HIGHER WINDS AT CLOUD LEVEL AND SHOULD LEAD TO GUSTS INTO THE 20S OR EVEN NEAR 30MPH ON THE HIGHER RIDGES.
403 AM EDT SUN MAY 8 2016 A MIDLEVEL TROUGH/ARCTIC AIR INTRUSION WILL PUSH THROUGH THE ENTIRE LOWER PENINSULA THIS MORNING. FOR THIS ISSUANCE DID TRIM AND REFINE THE LOW CHANCE POPS TO THE THUMB. THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE LOWER 40S. STABLE SPRING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING ANOTHER DAY OF PICTURE PERFECT WEATHER TO SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN FOR MONDAY. THE PRIMARY INFLUENCE FOR THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WEATHER DURING THE THE MIDWEEK PERIOD WILL BE THE UNWINDING OF THE OLD SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES CUTOFF LOW AND THE PERSISTENCE OF A BLOCKING PATTERN OVER MUCH OF NORTH AMERICA.
However, with the breezy westerly winds and some drying from down-sloping effects, shower development could be more inhibited in the valleys while some mountain ridges could produce a few showers. There is a slightly better chance for showers and storms to develop over the high terrain of Lemhi County and southwest Montana, including areas to the north towards Ovando thanks to the strong heating.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF WILL PERSIST TODAY THEN BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN MONDAY. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL WITH AN INCREASE IN MID/HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE WSW MON AS THE UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE IN THE LOW/MID 50S INLAND THIS MORNING.
313 AM EDT SUN MAY 8 2016 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL SLIDE EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH WILL STALL NEAR THE SC/NC LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. THEN MOVE BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL RIDGE INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES THROUGH MID-WEEK. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN LATE IN THE WEEK AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. A COLD FRONT OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD TO THE SC/NC BORDER BY EARLY THIS EVENING. KEPT AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN THE LOWER 60S. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT MONDAY.
346 AM CDT SUN MAY 8 2016 HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM FAR E SD THROUGH N IA WILL QUICKLY EXIT TO S IN THIS AFTERNOON. WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S W TO THE LOW 70S E.
AS THE SURFACE COLD FRONT GETS CLOSER AND SOME AFTERNOON INSTABILITY DEVELOPS. THE COLD FRONT STALLS NEAR THE TN/VA BORDER THIS EVENING. AND DRIFTS SLIGHTLY NORTH OVERNIGHT AS RIDGING ALOFT BUILDS OVER THE AREA. SLIGHT RIDGING WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WORK WEEK KEEPING MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION OFF TO OUR WEST AND NORTH CLOSER TO THE LOW AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH.
417 AM EDT SUN MAY 8 2016 A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL OUT FROM THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY TO THE CAROLINAS TODAY WHILE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE MOVES ACROSS OUR REGION. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY WORK ITS WAY NORTH AS A WARM FRONT INTO THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY ON MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WAS JUST SOUTH OF THE CWFA EARLY THIS MORNING. THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL OUT FROM THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY TO THE CAROLINAS WHILE HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE MOVES ACROSS OUR REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL VARY FROM THE LOWER 60S WHERE CLOUDS AND THE THREAT OF PCPN IS EXPECTED.
HIGH PRESSURE IS NESTLED ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM 62 TO 73 DEGREES WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S. WHILE SKIES ARE PARTLY CLOUDY IN THE LOWER KEYS.
344 AM CDT SUN MAY 8 2016 AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE MID SOUTH TODAY. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN THE 60S. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF THIS UPPER LOW AND HELP TO ADVECT RICHER LOW LEVEL GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA.
TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AN UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES OVER ARKANSAS THIS MORNING WITH AN UPPER LOW MOVING INTO THE ROCKIES. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST OF ARKANSAS THIS EVENING AND SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL RETURN. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE MONDAY AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE PLAINS.
404 AM CDT SUN MAY 8 2016 UPPER LOW CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WOBBLE NORTHEAST INTO THE HIGH PLAINS TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS AFTERNOON THE MAIN UPPER LOW NUDGES INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF NEBRASKA AND SOUTH DAKOTA.
336 AM CDT SUN MAY 8 2016 HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA EARLY THIS MORNING.
/Issued 919 PM EST Sun Feb 19 2017/ High pressure will continue across the area overnight. /Issued 158 PM EST Sun Feb 19 2017/ Ridge of high pressure will dominate the weather pattern over the state through the short term. BDL Models in good agreement holding a surface to upper level ridge over the CWA through Tuesday afternoon.
101 AM EST Mon Feb 20 2017 High pressure will build in from the west tonight then extend over the area from the north into Tuesday.
An elongated upper level trough will continue to exit the eastern Great Basin tonight. High pressure aloft will develop over Utah Monday, with a mild southwest flow aloft Tuesday.
514 PM EST Sun Feb 19 2017 Weak high pressure will slowly build across the area through Monday, shifting offshore mid week.
Subtle ridging aloft with weak warm advection maintains generally fair and mild weather for Monday.
Temperatures will again be above normal as a ridge moves across northeast Montana.
Modest southerly flow in the boundary layer will continue tonight as low pressure system to the west over the eastern Rockies gains strength and moves to the east. /issued 345 PM CST Sun Feb 19 2017/ Mid-afternoon sfc analysis shows an area of low pressure developing over the Rockies with a trailing cold front situated over the Front Range into far wrn TX. Closer to home high pressure was noted over the Ohio Valley. Water vapor imagery shows deep troffing over the Rockies/nrn Mexico pushing ewd. Rockies trof is still progged to advance ewd into Monday, with deepening srly flow increasing moisture through the column significantly (MRH values progged to exceed 80 percent and PWAT values running to near 1.
1110 PM CST Sun Feb 19 2017 An elongated trough from Montana down through northern Mexico has started to slowly progress to the east and interact with the large ridge currently in place over the midwest.
/Issued 158 PM EST Sun Feb 19 2017/ Ridge of high pressure will dominate the weather pattern over the state through the short term. BDL Models in good agreement holding a surface to upper level ridge over the CWA through Tuesday afternoon.
632 PM EST Sun Feb 19 2017 A weak cool front will drop south through the region tonight followed by slightly cooler but still mild air. For Monday through at least midday Tuesday, high pressure will provide more fair weather and above normal temperatures.
1004 PM EST Sun Feb 19 2017 High pressure will build in from the west tonight then extend over the area from the north into Tuesday.
748 PM EST Sun Feb 19 2017 A weak cold front will move farther offshore tonight. High pressure will build in from the northwest Monday and will crest over the area Monday night. High pressure will shift offshore on Tuesday as a weak warm front approaches from the west. The warm front will push east through the region Tuesday night.
Ridge proximity has allowed winds to drop off this evening and expect a more or less drainage flow to develop overnight with winds becoming more northerly.
451 PM CST Sun Feb 19 2017 Main upper lift assoc w/ approaching trough is moving across the Panhandles ATTM. A weak cold front will move across the area Monday in the wake of the aforementioned upper system. A closed low will develop across SE TX through TUE as the upper trough moves east and splits into nrn and srn systems. Mid-upr level ridging will develop in its wake leading to warming temps and large diurnal ranges given low atmospheric moisture content and above normal SFC temps as H85 thermal ridging develops across the area.
Instability downstream of this convection will lessen however an uptick in the low level winds fields will continue to support potential for localized higher wind gusts as the storms progress into eastern OK.
Also warmer than normal temperatures early before returning to normal late. The main region with the highest concentration of moisture will be along the Flint Hills region and areas eastward. On Tuesday, high pressure will filter into the region bringing light south winds before swinging to the north with a weak frontal boundary passage.