Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
A significant warmup is on tap on Fri/Sat behind a warm front. Will also see the chance of rain return in the wake of the warm front.
Thus have decreased overnight lows closer to the cooler edge of the 18-00 UTC global, statistical and high resolution suites. Currently, Arctic high pressure is situated along the front range of the Canadian and Northern Rockies. Just the mass of the High will be enough to keep the winds from dropping off completely, but we should see a significant decrease in winds late this afternoon and early this evening. The aforementioned warm advection, associated with an upper level trough moving onto the west coast will bring increasing clouds and a chance of light snow to the region, with the initial wave of moisture pushing into the south west and far south central on Thursday.
Upper air analysis this morning showed a trough over the eastern half of the country with a ridge over the west coast. The upper level ridge in the west will move to the east and flatten making the flow zonal.
The lack of warming today makes for a really good temperature profile for snow with the approaching warm front, so we have fairly high confidence for snow to fall in most places by Thursday morning.
401 PM CST Wed Dec 14 2016 The concern overnight is the scattering of clouds causing temperatures to fall to the mid 30s north of I-20, and south of I-20 temperatues will be slightly warmer due to clouds remaining overnight. Thursday high temperatures will range from the lower 50s south of I-20 to mid 40s north of I-20.
Winds remain elevated within the gradient between low pressure to the east and the high building in from the west. Look for the west winds to gradually diminish through tonight as high pressure pushes in from the west. Brisk and gusty westerly winds will continue during this time as strong low pressure moves east across srn Canada. Bitterly cold temperatures and the higher winds will increase the threat for freezing spray towards the open waters but the relatively warmer lake waters should limit the potential.
/Issued 400 PM CST Wed Dec 14 2016/ Drier air is advancing south into the area behind the latest cold front and is helping to erode the cloud cover this afternoon.
The ceilings are expected to slowly lift to above 2 KFT over the VCT area by Thursday afternoon as slightly drier air moves in at the lower levels. Northerly winds persist this afternoon in wake of the cold front that passed through the region early this morning.
408 PM CST Wed Dec 14 2016 (Tonight and Thursday) A cold front is currently entering northern portions of the forecast area and will drop south across the rest of the area this evening and overnight. Temperatures will be near freezing across far northwestern portions of the Concho Valley and across Nolan and Fisher counties, where some patchy freezing drizzle will be possible during the morning hours. Impacts will be minimal, with only a few slick spots possible on bridges and overpasses. Cloud cover will hang around for most of the day tomorrow, with afternoon highs ranging from the mid and upper 40s north, to the lower 50s south.
Meanwhile, northerly winds continue to bring cooler air into the area. This combination of features has kept temps in check today, with readings currently in the lower 50s to around 60. Aloft, a broad cyclonic flow pattern continues over the ern CONUS with a ridge over the west.
A warm front will shift north into Idaho later this evening as high pressure builds in.
A weak and relatively dry cold front will push through the Southern Appalachian Region tonight.
Cold front passage in our area will occur between 09Z and 12Z. Forecast low temps in the lower to mid 20s looks on track, but will tweak the hourly temp/dewpt grids for the update.
The ceilings are expected to slowly lift to above 2 KFT over the VCT area by Thursday afternoon as slightly drier air moves in at the lower levels.
Arctic high pressure will slide by to our north on Thursday, with continued mid/high clouds under a fast upper jet. The cold will hang on as 900mb temps around -16C will limit max temps to the lower/mid 20s, around 20 degrees below normal for mid-December. By Thu night the high will be far enough east to open up weak return flow, so expect a quick drop in temps Thu evening with flat or slowly rising temps after midnight.
533 PM CST Wed Dec 14 2016 High pressure will slide off to our east tonight allowing for return southerly flow and warm air advection.
Low temperatures will be around zero to a few degrees below zero, except a bit warmer underneath lake effect clouds, again along and north of U.
830 PM EST Wed Dec 14 2016 The main forecast concern continues to be the same sea fog and inland fog that has impacted the area during the last couple of nights, but the added wrinkle tonight is the approaching weak cold front. Areas of dense sea fog continue to linger over the Gulf waters this evening, but should start gradually breaking down from north to south as a weak and mostly dry cold front passes through the coastal waters tonight and Thursday morning.
A weakening cold front will bring a chance of light rain, mainly to the north part of Western Washington Wednesday afternoon and evening.
Skies are clearing across the forecast area this evening as a low precipitable water airmass continues to move in on the eastern periphery of an upper level ridge of high pressure centered over the Mississippi Valley. Even with subsidence from an upper high situated over the Lower Mississippi River Valley through the period, overnight temps closer to seasonal are expected tonight (mid 60s northeast to around 70 along the coast). Subsidence from the high along with a drier airmass over the fa will allow daytime temps to rise above seasonal averages, which in this case means highs rising into the low 90s, with a few localities in the mid 90s.
650 PM CDT TUE SEP 6 2016 The subtropical ridge situated over the Lower Mississippi/Tennessee Valley areas today is progged to remain in place through the work week before translating eastward over the southeast states into the weekend.
1032 PM EDT TUE SEP 6 2016 With high pressure in control at the surface and aloft. showing strong high pressure anchored over the deep south and producing a dry forecast through the Short Term and beyond. expect near or slightly cooler than normal lows. while highs on Wednesday run 3-5 degrees warmer than normal under ample sunshine. 39 Medium range models continue to show the region dominated by dry weather through the end of the work-week as upper-level ridging persists. Ridge breaks down through the weekend as the tail end of a strong short wave sweeping through the upper midwest and great lakes brushes the region. Associated cold front pushes through most of the area over the weekend, but is expected to stall somewhere across the southern/central portion of the state bringing low to moderate chances for precipitation to the region.
847 PM EDT TUE SEP 6 2016 Warm and humid conditions will persist through Wednesday with lows in the low to mid 70s tonight and highs in the upper 80s to near 90 degrees.
Clouds will decrease overnight, and tomorrow will be mostly clear and a couple of degrees cooler than today.
A warming trend will continue today and peak on Wednesday as high pressure builds over our region. Onshore flow will increase late in the week as the high pressure weakens and allows for temperatures to fall back to near seasonal averages. An upper level ridge is approaching the district from the west. At the surface there is dry northerly flow as a ridge of high pressure extends from the Pacific into Oregon. Temperatures today were about 5 to 10 degrees warmer than yesterday and another few degrees of warming is expected Wednesday.
704 PM MDT TUE SEP 6 2016 Early afternoon water vapor loop showed a high amplitude ridge over the southeastern CONUS and trough over the western CONUS. Wednesday will be warmer with gusty westerly winds throughout the day. Highs will range from the low 70s to low 80s.
1257 AM EDT Wed Sep 7 2016 A weak disturbance will drop south into the region later Wednesday before stronger high pressure builds back into the area from the southwest for the end of the week.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 67 94 69 94 / 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 64 92 66 93 / 0 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 64 93 67 93 / 0 0 0 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 57 88 62 91 / 0 0 0 10.
1030 PM EDT TUE SEP 6 2016 Currently - Broad high pressure over the southeastern United States is generating light flow across the area. lower level weakness in the ridge across our area has contributed to a northeast to east trajectory and ample deep layered moisture with unstable conditions. At this time, most of the activity is located over the near through offshore waters adjacent to the Lower Keys. Short Term Update - Light northeast to east breezes will prevail across the Florida Keys area through the overnight period due to the high far to our north. Winds will be light out of the northeast to east through the overnight period due to a high pressure system over the southeastern united states.
1019 PM EDT TUE SEP 6 2016 A blocking ridge aloft over the region. A cold front should pass through this weekend leading to a day or two of seasonable temperatures before another warm-up occurs. The region is in between the remnants of TS Hermine off the NJ coast and the upper ridge axis that extends from Indiana down the St. A warmer and more humid airmass will drift into the western mountains of our CWA later tonight and Wednesday. Max temps Wednesday will once again be in the low-mid 80s across the mtns.
1048 PM EDT Tue Sep 6 2016 A weak disturbance will head south into the region tomorrow while high pressure holds fast, centered over the Tennessee Valley.
Skies are clearing across the forecast area this evening as a low precipitable water airmass continues to move in on the eastern periphery of an upper level ridge of high pressure centered over the Mississippi Valley.
Diurnally driven instability is progged to increase on Wednesday, though persistent ridging should limit any showers and thunderstorms to isolated in coverage as convective temperatures are reached.
(Issued 211 PM CDT TUE SEP 6 2016) The 19z surface analysis indicated that the surface through upper level ridge axis was situated across the Southeast and through the Appalachian states. In the short term, the models are in good agreement in keeping the upper ridge axis across the southeast U.
An upper trough and jet speed maxima passing overhead late this afternoon and evening will produce breezy conditions. As the trough passes tonight winds aloft should shift from SW to W and drier air will move into the area.
722 PM EDT TUE SEP 6 2016 A ridge of high pressure will remain over the region tonight.
Not too much to update this evening with quiet weather and high pressure settling in. Short term models look to dry out the low levels a bit too soon when comparing to current obs, so fog may develop a bit more than what is currently in the forecast should these higher dewpoints continue.
958 PM EDT TUE SEP 6 2016 A ridge of high pressure will remain over the region tonight.
/issued 258 PM CDT TUE SEP 6 2016/ A large upper level height ridge will remain the dominate weather feature for the Midsouth for the next several days.
834 PM EDT TUE SEP 6 2016 A blocking ridge aloft over the region. A cold front should pass through this weekend leading to a day or two of seasonable temperatures before another warm-up occurs. The region is in between the remnants of TS Hermine off the NJ coast and the upper ridge axis that extends from Indiana down the St. A warmer and more humid airmass will drift into the western mountains of our CWA later tonight and Wednesday. Max temps Wednesday will once again be in the low-mid 80s across the mtns.
944 PM EDT TUE SEP 6 2016 The remnants of tropical system Hermine will continue to weaken and remain nearly stationary south of New England through Wednesday, as high pressure holds in place over the Canadian maritimes.
633 PM CDT TUE SEP 6 2016 Latest water vapor imagery shows large trough over the western CONUS with large dome of high pressure over the southeastern CONUS, leaving modest southwesterly flow over the nation's mid section. At the surface this afternoon, a cold front extended from southwestern Kansas across south central Nebraska and into eastern Minnesota. Main mid level impulse will finally eject out of the main trough Wednesday afternoon leading to increased chances for thunderstorms with the potential for heavy rain as the surface front slides south. This boundary will finally push south of the region Wednesday night leaving drier high pressure to fill in behind.
/Issued 918 PM CDT TUE SEP 6 2016/ It's a muggy night with current temperatures still in the low to mid 80s in most locations.
1008 PM EDT TUE SEP 6 2016 Aviation section updated High pressure will remain across the Ohio Valley through Wednesday.
A short wave and its associated cold front is now exiting to the east of the area. 21 inches at Charlotte Ridge. An offshore long wave ridge will bring persistent dry northwesterly flow aloft.
KCDS should remain mostly east of the low clouds at least overnight, but possible a layer may move in after daybreak Wednesday and we added a high MVFR scattered layer for this. Newton will move pretty quickly northward overnight then get picked up and sheared out by an upper level short wave trough moving eastward out of the Great Basin.
A ridge of high pressure will slowly works its way into our region tomorrow with drier conditions and near normal temps expected.
737 PM EDT TUE SEP 6 2016 High pressure will remain across the region through Wednesday.
An upper level ridge of high pressure remains anchored over the area this evening and will keep dry conditions and seasonably warm conditions in place overnight. /issued 258 PM CDT TUE SEP 6 2016/ A large upper level height ridge will remain the dominate weather feature for the Midsouth for the next several days.
/issued 356 PM CDT TUE SEP 6 2016/ (Tonight and Wednesday) An upper level high is currently centered over the Mississippi Valley just south of Memphis this afternoon. Warm and humid conditions are in store tonight, with overnight lows expected to be in the lower to mid 70s. With an uptick in 850mb temperatures and perhaps a bit less cloud cover during the afternoon Wednesday, highs are expected to be a little warmer than today, and in the lower to mid 90s.
Now that we have decoupled from the drier air aloft we are seeing some recovery in dewpoints with values in the low to mid 60s. as the region will remain on the eastern edge of a strong upper-lvl ridge centered across AR/LA.
High pressure will sink south into south Ga tonight producing clear skies and light winds. This will allow for radiational cooling along with patches of fog especially across the inland areas where min temps will fall into the lower/mid 60s. Warmer readings. in the lower 70s. High pressure will be just north of the waters will produce light east to southeast winds.
552 PM MDT TUE SEP 6 2016 An upper trough and jet speed maxima passing overhead late this afternoon and evening will produce breezy conditions. As the trough passes tonight winds aloft should shift from SW to W and drier air will move into the area.
A warming trend will continue today and peak on Wednesday as high pressure builds over our region. Onshore flow will increase late in the week as the high pressure weakens and allows for temperatures to fall back to near seasonal averages. As expected today has turned out to be sunny across our entire region due to a moderate northerly flow at the surface, a building ridge of high pressure, and a marine layer that is virtually nil. Temperatures have been running ahead of yesterday at this time with a few spots more than 10 degrees warmer. The ridge of high pressure will further build into our region for tomorrow while 850 MB temps increase another degree or so. A few of our warmest locations will soar into the lower 100s.
SETX appears to be under the 700-500mb ridge axis with subsidence dominating the weather. It should remain warm with max temps in the lower 90s and heat index values between 101 and 105 degrees.
Temperatures are running warmer by 1 to 6 degrees this evening.
942 PM EDT TUE SEP 6 2016 High pressure will build over the region through the rest of the week.
The low moisture and clearing skies tonight will allow for slightly lower than normal low temperatures, especially across the Nature Coast with upper 60s expected. High pressure residing north of the waters maintains northeast and east winds.
High pressure building in aloft will generally keep dry conditions in place through the period. Will likely see a repeat of today Wednesday as the 500mb ridge across the south-central and southeast United States continues to provide subsidence across the CWA in general. Will mention isolated convection offshore the lower TX coast tonight and across the coastal sections of the CWA Wednesday.
737 PM EDT TUE SEP 6 2016 Fair weather is expected to continue through the week with dry high pressure dominating.
852 PM EDT TUE SEP 6 2016 A blocking ridge aloft over the region. A cold front should pass through this weekend leading to a day or two of seasonable temperatures before another warm-up occurs. The region is in between the remnants of TS Hermine off the NJ coast and the upper ridge axis that extends from Indiana down the St. A warmer and more humid airmass will drift into the western mountains of our CWA later tonight and Wednesday. Max temps Wednesday will once again be in the low-mid 80s across the mtns.
516 PM PDT TUE SEP 6 2016 A low pressure system over the region today will exit by Wednesday giving way to weak high pressure aloft.
751 PM EDT TUE SEP 6 2016 Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb ridge across the sern U. and a trough in the Rockies. SFC ridging Thu night into Fri will keep the area dry for at least Thu night.
Even with subsidence from an upper high situated over the Lower Mississippi River Valley through the period, overnight temps closer to seasonal are expected tonight (mid 60s northeast to around 70 along the coast). Subsidence from the high along with a drier airmass over the fa will allow daytime temps to rise above seasonal averages, which in this case means highs rising into the low 90s, with a few localities in the mid 90s.
Higher resolution guidance is breaking out a few showers within this axis (near College Station) during peak heating tomorrow, but upper ridging over the ArkLaTex is building farther southwest into Texas on Wednesday will help limit overall coverage. SETX appears to be under the 700-500mb ridge axis with subsidence dominating the weather.
1212 AM EDT WED SEP 7 2016 High pressure both at the surface and aloft will keep the weather sunny and warm for the remainder of the week.
1200 AM CDT WED SEP 7 2016 Latest water vapor imagery shows large trough over the western CONUS with large dome of high pressure over the southeastern CONUS, leaving modest southwesterly flow over the nation's mid section. At the surface this afternoon, a cold front extended from southwestern Kansas across south central Nebraska and into eastern Minnesota. Main mid level impulse will finally eject out of the main trough Wednesday afternoon leading to increased chances for thunderstorms with the potential for heavy rain as the surface front slides south. This boundary will finally push south of the region Wednesday night leaving drier high pressure to fill in behind.
937 PM EDT TUE SEP 6 2016 High pressure both at the surface and aloft will keep the weather sunny and warm for the remainder of the week.
1020 PM EDT TUE SEP 6 2016 High pressure will remain across the region through Wednesday.
730 PM EDT TUE SEP 6 2016 High pressure both at the surface and aloft will keep the weather sunny and warm for the remainder of the week.
1033 PM EDT TUE SEP 6 2016 High pressure will remain centered over the southeastern states through the middle of the week, with increasing heat and humidity expected for the Ohio Valley.
Yep, it's another hot and dusty afternoon across the Mid-State, as big upper ridge remains firmly in control of our weather.
Drier mid levels can be seen on the water vapor satellite mvg toward S TX as a mid level high pressure axis moves west across the region. Thermal profile aloft is prog to be a degree or two warmer on Wed as mid level ridging strengthens. This warmer profile.
729 PM EDT Tue Sep 6 2016 A weak disturbance will head south into the region tomorrow while high pressure holds fast, centered over the Tennessee Valley.
1112 PM EDT TUE SEP 6 2016 A blocking ridge aloft over the region. A cold front should pass through this weekend leading to a day or two of seasonable temperatures before another warm-up occurs. The region is in between the remnants of TS Hermine off the NJ coast and the upper ridge axis that extends from Indiana down the St. A warmer and more humid airmass will drift into the western mountains of our CWA later tonight and Wednesday. Max temps Wednesday will once again be in the low-mid 80s across the mtns.
731 PM EDT TUE SEP 6 2016 Upper level ridge continues its domination.
918 PM CDT TUE SEP 6 2016 It's a muggy night with current temperatures still in the low to mid 80s in most locations.
1033 PM EDT TUE SEP 6 2016 Low pressure will continue to weaken as it meanders south of Long Island overnight and into Wednesday.
This low stratus along with some SRLY winds. cooler and much drier airmass moving into the region.
/issued 334 PM CST Mon Nov 28 2016/ (Tonight and Tuesday) Windy conditions should continue through the late afternoon behind a Pacific cold front, with a Lake Wind Advisory remaining in effect until 6 pm.
1142 PM CST Mon Nov 28 2016 A low pressure system remains over the central United States which is bringing rain and snow to the Dakotas. The cold front that came through early this morning has moved into the Ozarks which is brought clouds and precipitation over those areas for the first part of the day. The trough will keep its position over the Midwest for the first part of the week before heading to the Great Lakes. A secondary wave and respective front will move through on Tuesday which will bring another reinforcing shot of cooler air which means a relative cool down for the mid week and beyond with highs once again back to around 50 degrees or what is typical for start of December.
302 AM CST Tue Nov 29 2016 A big upper level low centered over the eastern Dakotas will slowly shift off to the east over the next couple of days. As sfc cold front still off to our west will finally move through the cwfa today shifting ssw winds to the west. The lower levels have already dried out quite a bit, so other than some extensive mid/high level clouds early today, the frontal passage will be fairly benign. Cloud cover circulating around the upper low will affect the northern cwfa more versus the south. A ridge of high pressure is then expected to build in for Thu with more abundant sunshine. The general model forecast guidance has been consistent in digging a strong upper low into northern Mexico by Sat.
400 AM EST Tue Nov 29 2016 A warm front will lift through the area today.
The next short wave trof will dig rapidly southward into Texas on Tuesday and the stalled out boundary will lift northward as a warm front. Upper lift will increase significantly along the MS river Tuesday afternoon ahead of the advancing short wave trof. Convective activity will increase rapidly Tuesday evening across northwest Alabama along the warm front.
356 AM CST Tue Nov 29 2016 (Today and Tonight) An upper trough passing eastward across the southern Plains today through tonight will drop a dry cold front through the forecast area today. West winds 10 to 20 mph with higher gusts will precede the cold frontal passage with northwesterly winds dropping to around 10 mph after frontal passage.
High pressure returns Tuesday with dry and seasonable weather.
A northwest flow aloft continues across the region as a ridge of high pressure slowly builds in from the west. These showers will gradually decrease and come to an end early Tuesday once the ridge finally moves inland.