Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
357 AM EST Wed Feb 1 2017 Along the Florida Keys, skies are mostly clear to partly cloudy with temperatures averaging in the lower to mid 60s with mostly northeast winds of around 10 mph. Surface wise, a formidable ridge is centered over the Sunshine State with a ridge reaching well into the Atlantic and Gulf waters.
Strong cold front moving into the region tonight with low clouds along with some light snow/flurries along it. Winds will gradually diminish in speed across the area tonight as high pressure approaches from the northwest. The high will settle in over the western half of the state on Wednesday, keeping conditions dry, but allowing for colder air to begin to move in. To start Wednesday night, the main 500mb low will be across Hudson Bay, with a ridge across the Pacific Coast of the continuous states up through Canada.
406 AM EST Wed Feb 1 2017 Scattered light rain and snow showers will end as high pressure builds into the area. The lower levels were still relatively warm with limited ice introduction in the cloud layer, so rain and snow showers are possible through the day.
Upper air sounding from KLCH at 01/00Z showed an overall dry air mass with the exception of some moisture in the lowest levels.
Even latest CONSSHORT is about a degree warmer than current obs at the start, so will populate with coldest hi-res guidance. Cold front sinking down the valley and approaching F-M area. Temperatures near zero are expected for the lows tonight around Grand Forks, with areas reaching 5 below zero along the Canadian border. More sunshine on Wednesday, but high temperatures will be about 20 degrees cooler than today.
306 AM EST Wed Feb 1 2017 A weak cold front crosses later today.
High temperatures will struggle to reach the low teens. The rest of the week looks dry with an upper level ridge moving in. We will transition to a more active pattern this weekend as the ridge breaks down and westerly flow kicks in.
259 AM CST Wed Feb 1 2017 Some mid and high level moisture will remain through most of today and with light east winds will be a bit cooler than yesterday. has a broad trough over the eastern half with some ridging along the west coast.
Moisture levels will increase ahead of a cold front that is expected to traverse the region tonight and early Wednesday morning. Fog, mist, and light freezing drizzle will become a possibility around or just after midnight as sharply cooler air combines with the increased moisture in the region. Temperatures will fall into the lower 20s tonight. Highs on Wednesday will struggle to climb into the lower 30s and we may only see upper 20s in many locations where thick cloud cover remains in place all day.
An ill defined surface front near the Arkansas border will get another push further south tonight and start ushering in cooler weather for Wednesday. Temperatures will be about 10 degrees cooler tomorrow.
Tonight we should dry out and cool down as high pressure to our northwest builds into the region.
With dry air/lack of saturation in the low- levels, have left flurry mention out of forecast.
Although the ridge axis is over the region and winds. the low level column has moderated a bit over the past 12-18 hours.
226 AM CST Wed Feb 1 2017 Cold front was located across northern Arkansas early this morning.
Winds will gradually back as a cold front approaches, w/fropa at KMAF/KHOB ~ 16Z. Our attention turns next to a weak cold front expected to arrive during the day Wednesday.
Weak upper level flow and a broad area of high pressure at the surface will persist across our region, resulting in continued dry conditions. After morning lows in the mid-upper 40s inland and 50s along the coast, highs will reach the low-mid 70s again today.
In addition, have increased wind speeds a bit across areas to the north of the advancing cold front later tonight. A much stronger surge of cooler air will arrive overnight into Wednesday morning, shoving the front well south into Texas by evening, and bringing temperatures across Oklahoma and western north Texas back down closer to the seasonal average.
Much of this was not reaching the ground, particularly in the eastern Nebraska to northern Missouri region, but intensification was evident in advance of the incoming short wave trough from western SD into north central NE where the frontogenesis and additional vertical motion was being enhanced. Otherwise, expect the mild conditions and light winds to persist through this evening before the cold front moves across the forecast area overnight. although there is potential for a bit of low stratus to develop in which case highs could be a bit lower Northwest flow dominates the end of the week periods with Canadian high pressure of southwest province origin continuing to build into the Plains.
HAVE ADJUSTED THE WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES TO SHIFT THE HIGHEST SNOW ACCMULATIONS SOUTHWARD AND TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. 21z surface analysis had cold front from Lake Superior to central WY with arctic boundary sinking south into MT/ND courtesy of Canada. 140kt jet streak over MT into the eastern Dakotas impinging on 850-700mb baroclinic zone in place across the CWA along cold frontal boundary. Previous updates addressed expected snowfall totals with highest amounts where weak upslope enhancement assists accumulations over the higher Black Hills.
For tonight, high pressure will continue to sink southward across the Central Plains. With the return/upslope flow, some of the models are hinting at freezing fog potential across the far western zones.
Surface pressure gradient ahead of high pressure centered in Mt will again make for brisk winds. Associated Secondary cold front will bring a reinforcing shot of cold air.
349 AM CST Wed Feb 1 2017 (Today and Tonight) A cold front will drop south across the area during the next 24 hours. Cooler temperatures for tonight with lows mainly in the 30s.
1230 AM EST Wed Feb 1 2017 A weak cold front crosses later today.
The local area remains under nearly zonal upper flow with a broad upper trough over the Great Lakes. At the surface, weak high pressure has been building in from the southeast. With the steady flow of moisture, the lower levels will become saturated by Wednesday afternoon, as the boundary enters the area.
Lows tonight will be in the low to mid 30s. Highs will be cooler but still about 5 degrees warmer than average, in the low 40s to low 50s.
Cold front will gradually sag southward overnight with a wind shift at KMLC after 12z.
Status quo over the next 24 hours as the western Atlantic high pressure ridge remains across central Florida, while it's axis nudges ever-so-slightly northward.
By tonight, the wave is expected to pass through with once again a dry punch moving into the area ahead of high pressure. In fact, if it wasn't for some lingering stratocu behind this feature, some significant ridge valley splits would be in place. Instead, the stratocu layer will stop temps from really dropping into the lower 20s.
Update to focus on band of snow along the cold front as it moves south across southwest and south central North Dakota this evening. Currently, strong northwest flow aloft with a closed upper low over the Hudson Bay and an upper level ridge over the California coast. Strong cold front near the Canadian border slowly dipping south clearly evident when looking at surface wind fields along with a large area of stratus along the FROPA. Cold front will continue southward tonight approaching the ND/SD border area around midnight local time.
Meanwhile, troughing over Texas as part of the now sheared cutoff low from earlier in the week and a high pressure over Northern Florida wedges Central AL in an area of southwesterly flow with some isentropic lift ahead of this slow moving front. 58/rose Slight chance of rain will return by Wednesday afternoon across the northwest counties, as a slow moving cold front becomes stationary across the north.
A cold front currently stretches west to east along the Tennessee- Alabama state line.
307 AM CST Wed Feb 1 2017 A cold front has pushed into northeast OK tonight.
Drier, but cooler conditions can be anticipated for late week. In the WV/MD ridges, precipitation will fall mostly as snow, although lower elevations will change over to rain for the afternoon. Westerly winds should allow for a several hour period of upslope snow, especially during the mid to late morning, but limiting factors for snowfall accumulation/ratios include low inversion heights and surface temperatures relatively close to freezing.
A cold front will pass through the area this morning with winds shifting to the north-northeast and increasing somewhat with the FROPA. A cold front will make it's way through all the terminals Wednesday morning, shifting winds from west to north, then northeast. /issued 303 PM CST Tue Jan 31 2017/ The weak cold front that meandered south through the heart of the Texas Panhandle this morning has stalled across the extreme southern Texas Panhandle along our northern row of counties with little effect on the ambient weather. The approaching ridge axis to the west will help moderate the cooling trend the farther west and south you go across our CWA. Surface ridging will build in following a cold front on Wednesday.
Early morning temperatures ranged from the low to upper 30s. A few snow showers and flurries occurring along a back door cold front across extreme northeast Iowa into southern Wisconsin may barely clip the far northern counties of the DVN forecast area early this morning.
For the rest of tonight, a cold front currently draped along the Canadian border will drop southward across the Upper Midwest. While Wednesday will be notably cooler with breezy northwest wind, it will be dry in the post frontal air mass with skies opening up to some sunshine by afternoon.
/issued 258 PM CST Tue Jan 31 2017/ SHORT TERM:(Tonight through Wednesday Night): A weakening 500mb closed low pressure system will continue to fill and weaken as it moves eastward into Northern Mexico tonight and Wednesday. At the surface, high pressure located over South Florida and low pressure over the TX Panhandle is providing moderate southerly flow across Deep South Texas.
This means that highs tomorrow will range from the low 30s to upper 30s across the area. Forecast highs in the lower 20s north to upper 20s far south are slightly below avg.
Dry air is filtering into the area via westerly winds aloft and should keep moisture confined to the lowest 100 mb.
Activity will get going again on Monday, and have more of a convective nature to it, as left over shear axis aloft, and low level theta-e ridge, will combine with high moisture profiles (PWAT over 1.
351 PM CST Sun Mar 5 2017 Moist southerly flow in the lower levels resulting in improved fire weather conditions today despite win speeds in the 15 to 30 mph range, as humidity has remained above 70%. Moist airmass remains in place Monday as Pacific trough moves closer and pushes a cold front through the Central Plains during the afternoon. Veered flow ahead of the dry line and only modest large scale ascent suggests that the potential for storms to develop along fry line are low Monday afternoon, however several recent model solutions show signal of developing more discrete development well ahead of dry line over eastern OK/western AR in strong warm advection regime with cooling aloft as the upper trough passes north, which would likely be supercells in a highly sheared environment.
420 PM EST Sun Mar 5 2017 A warm front lifts north of the area tonight.
1154 AM PST Sun Mar 5 2017 The weather will remain active, as a cold upper level trough begins to shift into the region.
105 PM EST Sun Mar 5 2017 Chilly high pressure will extend down the East Coast through tonight, before shifting offshore Monday.
1026 AM PST Sun Mar 5 2017 The weather will remain active, as a cold upper level trough begins to shift into the region.
High temps should top out in the low to mid 60s. Monday night a cold front will approach the area bringing more rounds of showers and a slight chance for t-storms. A decaying line of convection right ahead of the cold front will move through the region late Mon night into Tues morning. Mon night lows look to be in the low to mid 50s.
Southerly flow to the east of the trough has pulled low level moisture from the southern Plains into central and western Kansas with dewpoints currently in the mid/upper 40s around and east of Dodge City. Low stratus had developed as far west as eastern Ford Co earlier tonight but latest satellite trends show the western edge of the low cloudiness gradually receding eastward. East of the dryline, temperatures will likely top out in the low to mid 70s. A strong upper level trough will move out of the central Rockies into the northern and central Plains during the day Monday. A Pacific cold front will move out across western Kansas during the morning and midday hours.
Large scale pattern featured a trough off the west coast of the CONUS with 12 hour height falls of around 90 meters at 500 mb in Oregon. Thermal ridge at 700 mb and 850 mb was in place from northern Mexico toward Colorado and Nebraska.
In addition, some light precipitation is possible near the White Mountains today, and along a cold front from tonight into Monday.
Warm advection continues today with thermal ridge axis pushing into the FA by afternoon. Things could get interesting late afternoon and overnight as strong cold front pushes through the forecast area. Much depends on how much moisture gets wrapped around the low. Currently the highest impact area looks to be across my NE into the northern valley where snow and wind may have travel impacts.
Model soundings are indicating a shallow, but slowly deepening, moist layer near the sfc, so drizzle is possible, but shouldn't develop into freezing drizzle due to temperatures expected to stay above freezing overnight.
/issued 848 AM EST Sun Mar 5 2017/ High pressure is in place to the NE of the area causing a moderate E/NE wind flow over the area becoming gusty in the late morning and afternoon.
159 PM EST Sun Mar 5 2017 It will not be as cold tonight because of air mass modification and developing onshore flow as the ridge shifts eastward.
314 PM EST Sun Mar 5 2017 High pressure will move east of the area tonight. Clouds and temperatures will both increase into Monday, as light south winds bring in warmer air.
However, the heavier and more widespread rainfall still look to hold off until Monday night as the cold front approaches from the west, and H50 short wave pushes east into the MS River Valley.
A warm front will lift north of the area this evening, allowing increasingly warm and moist air to move into the area.
345 PM EST Sun Mar 5 2017 High pressure will continue to move off to the east this evening into tonight.
Particularly Dangerous Fire Wx Conditions Mon and Now a High Wind Warning has been Posted for Part of the Fcst Area and it May Aloft: SW flow will cont overhead thru tomorrow as a deep (-2 sigma) trof progresses thru the Wrn USA. This trof will be just W of the fcst area (FA) at 00Z/Tue. This low was along a strong cool front making its way thru the Wrn USA. The low will deepen further as it heads across the Dakota's into Srn Manitoba tomorrow. Aloft: Low amplitude WNW flow prevails thru next Sun in the wake of the trof that moves thru Mon eve. but overall average warmer than normal. Significant Wx: LLWS tonight then cold frontal passage and strong cross winds tomorrow with gusts close to 50 kts likely after 17Z. Cold frontal passage.
As far as the rain, it's going to take some time for any appreciable rainfall to reach the ground, as dry as it is in the lower levels.
SHORT TERM (Tonight through Monday Night): Recent radar imagery continues to show isolated convection moving northward across the Lower Texas Coast and adjacent marine areas this afternoon. As ridging moves eastward across South Texas, rain chances should trend downward as RH values drop to below 50% between 850 and 700mb with dry northwest flow aloft. As the mid-level ridge moves overhead and winds increase out of the SSW at 850mb, above-normal temperatures are expected on Monday with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s.
1233 PM EST Sun Mar 5 2017 High pressure builds in from the west through tonight, then drifts east Monday.
In addition, gusty west winds will usher in a much cooler airmass and snow levels will be as low as 2000 feet.
An upper level trough will track across the northern Plains along with an associated area of low pressure Monday then off to the northeast Monday night. A trailing cold front will sweep through region Monday evening and night.
/Issued 926 AM CST Sun Mar 5 2017/ Upper level trough can be seen via water vapor sallite moving east of the area with drier subsident mid/upper levels currently moving across the area.
Medium range models continue to weaken the short associated with this precipitation as it moves east/northeast up the backside of the upper ridge and the chances that it will be able to produce any perceptible precipitation at the surface across north or central Georgia remains very low.
/ISSUED 353 AM CST Sun Mar 5 2017/ Areas of mainly rain and/or showers will continue to be possible across Southeast Texas today as the mid/upper level trough moves east and northeast across the area. Anticipate decreasing rain coverage for much of the area this afternoon as the main trough axis edges off to our east.
Downstream lift/moisture influx yielding widespread areas of -RA across most of the area, though dry air continues in the low levels which is resulting in largely VFR CIGS. A negatively tilted trough over will continue over central U.
Strong winds are also likely across the higher terrain tonight into Monday morning. As the storm moves east into Utah on tonight, the associated cold front will usher in cooler air into the state Monday.
355 PM EST Sun Mar 5 2017 A ridge of high pressure will be over the north country overnight, and then move off the New England coast by early Monday afternoon. A warm front will approach the region Monday night.
245 PM EST Sun Mar 5 2017 Chilly high pressure will extend down the East Coast through tonight, before shifting offshore Monday.
317 PM EST Sun Mar 5 2017 A 1039 mb high pressure system remains entrenched from east of Lake Erie to the Delmarva Peninsula, driving strong/near-gale northeast to east breezes across the Florida Keys and area coastal waters. The upper level low will have little effect on the lower troposphere, aside from scouring some of the gradient from the southern flank of the high pressure system.
1124 AM EST Sun Mar 5 2017 A 1044 mb high pressure system remains entrenched from near Lake Erie to the Delmarva Peninsula, driving strong/near-gale northeast to east breezes across the Florida Keys and area coastal waters. All other coastal waters remain at the high end of Small Craft Advisory. The extreme moisture flux in the lowest layers of the atmosphere has produced swaths of light rain squalls across the Florida Straits.
131 PM EST Sun Mar 5 2017 Clouds will increase tonight ahead of an approaching cold front.
351 PM CST Sun Mar 5 2017 (Tonight and Monday) An upper trough will move east across the Rockies tonight and out across the central and northern Plains on Monday. Low level thermal ridge will be rather strong (850 mb temps 17 to 20C) and will result in temperatures in the lower to middle 80s for afternoon highs.
Models do agree on the low stratus deck moving into the state and holding steady into Monday. Leaned slightly warmer for maximum temperatures today as the strong WAA looks to overcome the lack of sunshine plus with the slightly warmer start this morning.
Cold advection will keep temperatures from rising out of the upper 60s in far western Kansas on Monday, with lower 80s in south central Kansas where the best downslope flow and warmer airmass will reside.
Main focus remains on the strong low pressure system that develops across North Dakota for Monday. GEFS mean sea level pressure anomalies with this feature are 4-5 standard deviations below climo which is the reason we are expecting such strong winds, although the GFS is on the lower end of the spectrum when it comes to MSLP compared to the NAM/Canadian guidance.
Bulk moisture seen on satellite/radar mosaic over Texas and the lower Mississippi valley, will continue its northward advection Today. Showers will enter the forecast late tonight and become more prevalent with time, as a cold front takes shape and begins to approach from the west. The cold front is the feature to key upon, as the new SWODY2 outlooks a SLGT risk of svr to our west and southwest for Monday evening into Monday night. A marginal risk for SEMO exists, as this cold front enters into play.
957 AM PST Sun Mar 5 2017 A cold front will bring some rain and mountains snow to the area today along with much cooler temperatures and breezy conditions.
1216 PM EST Sun Mar 5 2017 Southerly winds on the backside of high pressure along the East Coast will provide dry and warmer conditions across our area today. The warming trend will continue Monday, but showers are also likely to move into the area as a cold front approaches from the Plains.
At the surface, a fairly impressive cold front continues to push south toward southern Montana.
1126 AM EST Sun Mar 5 2017 High pressure will build in from the west on Monday, moving off to the east by Monday night.
As we head into tomorrow, the approach of an upper level trough into the Rockies and eventual emergence into the Central Plains by the afternoon will increase our winds first from the southwest, then out of the west. The winds will be diminishing Monday evening and shifting to the north as a cold front moves through.
Despite few showers, cloudy skies will continue with night time lows mainly in the lower 50s. Rain chances will increase tonight as the moisture feed from the Gulf deepens, and a cold front trailing southward from the low approaches.
Temperatures will be very warm today and tomorrow ahead of a cold front that moves from west to east across the region Monday night with highs in the mid 40s to near 60 both days. Lows tonight remaining above freezing in the mid 30s to mid 40s, which is 25-30 degrees above normal for early March! On the synoptic scale the upper Midwest with well within a south- southwest flow at mid to upper levels as a mid-level ridge lifts from the Great Lakes region into New England and a deep longwave trough deepens over the Pacific Northwest. This warm front will result in increasing cloud cover and chance for drizzle/rain showers.
420 PM EST Sun Mar 5 2017 High pressure will build across the region tonight through Monday.
Gave some thought to limiting advisories to areas above 9000 feet, but cold front comes through tonight causing snow levels to lower to valley bottoms which may confuse the message. Consequently, made mention of best accumulations in the higher elevations. Temperatures are currently running 10 to 15 degrees warmer than what was observed 24 hours ago at most locations around the forecast area. The reason for this is warm air advection ahead of an approaching cold front. These winds will be gusty with gusts to 55 mph in the lower elevations and gusts up to 75 mph over the mountains. The cold front itself is expected to pass over the forecast area tonight and will support showers this afternoon with isolated thunderstorms possible north of I-70.
1243 PM EST Sun Mar 5 2017 High pressure will maintain dry weather through tonight. Approaching low pressure should result in increasing rain chances early in the work week.
They appear to be due to some mid level short wave energy combined with isentropic lift from warm advection in strong southwest flow aloft, ahead of an approaching warm front. The warm front is expected continue through the forecast area during the day on Monday, so temperatures should be warmer than they were today, but there will still be plenty of clouds. Low temperatures should occur early in the night at many locations as the warm front moves into the area. Deep cyclone tracking over the Northern Plains Monday night will drag a cold front with following dry slot over the Western Great Lakes Region. The best forcing will be along and ahead of the cold front and dry slot.