Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Generally cooler temperatures are expected tonight as a slightly cooler and much drier air mass moves into western Kansas under the influence of a westerly downslope flow developing late tonight. Look for lows down into the 20s(F) across west central Kansas to the lower 30s(F) in south central Kansas. Fairly seasonal temperatures are likely Thursday as the cooler air continues to filter southward into western Kansas lowering H85 temperatures to near 0C across portions of southwest and central Kansas.
648 PM EST WED DEC 23 2015 AVIATION A DEEPENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN MISSOURI WILL TRACK NORTHEAST THROUGH WISCONSIN TONIGHT. A COOLER AIRMASS ARRIVES FOR THURSDAY WITH LESS IN THE WAY OF RAIN SHOWERS.
840 PM CST WED DEC 23 2015 MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE SWINGING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH OUR EASTERN ZONES AT THIS TIME IS PRODUCING A BIT OF FLURRIES AND FREEZING DRIZZLE. DID NOT ADD MENTION OF DRIZZLE WITH RELATIVELY SHALLOW SATURATION AND VIRTUALLY NO WIND IN THE LOWEST 3-4K FEET.
STRONG AND STILL DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WAS PASSING NE OVER IA THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE LOW PRESSURE RAPIDLY MOVING NE INTO CANADA TONIGHT. ITS COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH KY. AS THE HIGH PUSHES EAST. THE LONG WAVE PATTERN WILL TRANSITION TO A SPLIT FLOW SETTING UP DEEP AND BROAD TROUGHING IN THE WEST HALF OF THE NATION OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
AS THIS HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR PASSES OVER COOLER COASTAL WATERS EXPECT FOG. AS THIS HIGHER MOIST AND WARMER AIR MOVES OVER COOLER NEARSHORE WATERS. THE HIGHER CHANCES FOR DENSE FOG LOWERING VISIBILITIES TO BELOW A MILE WILL BE FOCUSED FROM LBX OVER TO GLS AND POINTS EASTWARD UP THE UPPER TEXAS COASTLINE AND NEIGHBORING COASTAL COUNTIES. CANNOT ARGUE TOO MUCH WITH THE CHC POP NUMBERS ALREADY IN THE GRIDS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE PERSISTENT UPPER TROFFING HELPS TO KEEP THE ACTIVE SUB-TROPICAL JET IN PLACE OVER THE REGION. MAIN ISSUE WITH THE UPCOMING FCST LOOKS TO BE THE STRONG CLOSED UPPER LOW PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST LATE SUN/ EARLY MON.
THERE HAVE EVEN BEEN ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES SHOWING UP IN THE PAST HOUR DUE TO THE INSTABILITY MOUNTAIN WARNINGS CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING AND THIS SHOULD BE A GOOD DROPPING POINT THOUGH LIGHT SNOW IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO EBB ACROSS THE HIGH COUNTRY THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. SNOW LEVEL WILL ONLY POTENTIALLY IMPACT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF SE UTAH. SW FLOW INCREASES THROUGH THE DAY AS THE UPPER LOW DIGS INTO THE GREAT BASIN AND JET STREAK NOSES INTO THE FOUR CORNERS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.
Strong area of low pressure currently rapidly lifting northeast across northern MO with a trailing surface front. Winds should begin to subside by then as the low will rapidly lift off to the northeast. Everything should clear out to our east by 00-01z with the low rapidly lifting to the northeast into Canada tonight.
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT THROUGH ALLOWING AN ONSHORE FLOW TO REDEVELOP QUICKLY. THE WARMER THE MIN TEMPS. AND IN THE LOWER/MID 60S EAST.
LOW PRESSURE OVER IOWA AS OF MID AFTERNOON WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS WISCONSIN AND LAKE SUPERIOR ON ITS WAY TO QUEBEC. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA AROUND SUNRISE ON THURSDAY. EVEN WITH THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH.
A weak frontal boundary will sag into the I-20 corridor and bring slightly cooler temperatures to the Big Country, although still above normal.
A COLD UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT INTO THE GREAT BASIN THURSDAY.
AS THIS HIGHER MOIST AND WARMER AIR MOVES OVER COOLER NEARSHORE WATERS. THE HIGHER CHANCES FOR DENSE FOG LOWERING VISIBILITIES TO BELOW A MILE WILL BE FOCUSED FROM LBX OVER TO GLS AND POINTS EASTWARD UP THE UPPER TEXAS COASTLINE AND NEIGHBORING COASTAL COUNTIES. CANNOT ARGUE TOO MUCH WITH THE CHC POP NUMBERS ALREADY IN THE GRIDS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE PERSISTENT UPPER TROFFING HELPS TO KEEP THE ACTIVE SUB-TROPICAL JET IN PLACE OVER THE REGION. MAIN ISSUE WITH THE UPCOMING FCST LOOKS TO BE THE STRONG CLOSED UPPER LOW PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST LATE SUN/ EARLY MON.
DYNAMICS HAVE QUICKLY DECREASED AS LOW PRESSURE CENTER HAS LIFTED WELL TO THE NORTH. BUT SHEAR KEEPS SOME ROTATION GOING WITH STORMS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH.
ALSO ADDED AREAS OF FREEZING FOG TO THE FORECAST FOR THE EASTERN GLACIER TO NORTHERN BLAINE COUNTY CORRIDOR. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE COMBINED WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION WILL ALLOW FOR PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES TO CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF THE REGION THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY. BUT THEN COOL OFF A BIT CHRISTMAS EVE AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD.
659 PM CST WED DEC 23 2015 REPORTS FROM SPOTTERS NEAR KABETOGAMA OF FREEZING DRIZZLE FROM THERE TO INL. WITH SEVERAL VORTICITY MAXIMA TRANSLATING THROUGH THE TROF. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER EASTERN IOWA WITH AN INVERTED TROF STRETCHING NORTHEAST. A COLD FRONT WAS ORIENTED FROM NEAR INTERNATIONAL FALLS SOUTH INTO WESTERN IOWA. WHERE THE HIGHEST SNOW RATES WERE FOUND. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND COOLER TONIGHT AND THURSDAY BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW AS NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASE.
A SHIP ABOUT 30 MILES SOUTH OF THE LOWER KEYS REPORTED AN ESTIMATED WIND OF 26 KNOTS.
MOIST UNSTABLE AIR CONTINUES TO COME IN FROM THE PACIFIC THROUGH A BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WRN STATES. CLEARING AND COLDER THURSDAY NIGHT AND CHRISTMAS DAY AS THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS TO THE ROCKIES WHILE DRIER NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT COMES INTO OUR AREA. WITH BEST CHANCES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
A DEEP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES.
THERE HAVE EVEN BEEN ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES SHOWING UP IN THE PAST HOUR DUE TO THE INSTABILITY MOUNTAIN WARNINGS CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING AND THIS SHOULD BE A GOOD DROPPING POINT THOUGH LIGHT SNOW IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO EBB ACROSS THE HIGH COUNTRY THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THE RAIN-SNOW LEVEL WILL ONLY POTENTIALLY IMPACT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF SE UTAH. SW FLOW INCREASES THROUGH THE DAY AS THE UPPER LOW DIGS INTO THE GREAT BASIN AND JET STREAK NOSES INTO THE FOUR CORNERS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.
940 PM EST WED DEC 23 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK TO OUR WEST TONIGHT AND THURSDAY PULLING A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE REGION.
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 61 72 60 73 / 90 70 80 70 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 58 71 57 70 / 90 70 80 70 OAK RIDGE, TN 58 71 61 69 / 90 70 60 70 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 54 70 56 68 / 70 70 80 70 NC.
THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE WESTERN 2/3 OF THE CONUS. A BAND OF LOW CLOUDS STRETCHES FROM NW TO CENTRAL SD AND IS ERODING FROM THE NORTH AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN. FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY LATE THURSDAY AS A TROUGH BEGINS TO DEEPEN OVER THE WESTERN CONUS.
LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE REMAINS OF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ACROSS SOUTHWEST THROUGH WEST CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. AS THIS AREA LEAVES THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA IT SHOULD LOOSE THE UPSLOPE COMPONENT AND DIMINISH RAPIDLY BY MID EVENING.
COLD FRONT IS STILL PROGGED TO SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY. COLD ADVECTION ALOFT IS NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE SO TEMPERATURES SHOULD STILL SETTLE IN THE LOW TO MID 60'S.
Front/upper trof passage occurs shortly thereafter. High pressure will provide a nice Christmas Eve forecast, but moves off to the northeast over the upper Ohio river valley by Christmas day, as warm sector return surge begins even late Thu night.
SHORT TERM: (Through Late Tonight) Severe weather potential will persist for the next couple of hours with the storms currently developing along the cold front.
A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDING INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA AND AN LARGE AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BUILDING INTO THE EASTERN CONUS AND THE EASTERN GULF. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN AND SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH TODAY WITH HURRICANE JOAQUIN THEN FORECAST TO BE ON A GENERALLY NORTH NORTH NORTHEAST TRACK LATER TODAY AND THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
220 AM EDT FRI OCT 2 2015 HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL KEEP COOL AND DRY WEATHER ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER JAMES BAY WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN QUEBEC ON FRIDAY WHILE CONTINUING TO FEED A BRISK NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OF COOL/DRY AIR ACROSS OUR REGION. LOWS OVERNIGHT WILL LIKELY RUN A LITTLE BIT COOLER THAN THOSE OF LAST NIGHT WITH LESS OVERALL CLOUD COVER IN PLACE. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL THEN ALSO BE A BIT LOWER THAN TODAY/S AS THE CONTINUED BRISK NORTHEASTERLY FLOW SPREADS SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR ACROSS OUR REGION. AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN LIKELY STRUGGLING TO GET OUT OF THE LOWER 50S. WESTERN NY WILL BE BETWEEN A CLIMATOLOGICALLY EXTREME RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST WHILE HURRICANE JOAQUIN CONTINUES OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
312 AM CDT FRI OCT 2 2015 VERY LITTLE CHGS TO CURRENT FORECAST AS THE PERSISTENT BLOCKING TYPE UPPER AIR PATTERN CONTINUES FOR THE UPPER MIDWEST. LITTLE CHG IN THE FORECAST WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ALONG WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE.
THE FOG SHOULD BE MOST PREVALENT ON THE RIDGES ABOVE 2000 FEET WHERE IT COULD REMAIN DENSE FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. LOCATIONS NEAR THE VA BORDER SHOULD PICK UP THE HIGHEST RAINFALL WITH TWO DAY TOTALS NEARING 2 INCHES POSSIBLE DURING THE NEAR TERM PERIOD ALONG THE VA BORDER. HOWEVER MODELS DO SEEM TO HAVE A HANDLE ON THE FAIRLY ANOMALOUS CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. THIS CLOSED LOW LOOKS TO BE AS MUCH AS NEGATIVE 5 SIGMAS ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND FL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THIS STRONG CLOSED LOW WILL SLOWLY MEANDER EAST AND NE WHILE WEAKENING AS IT MOVES INTO NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE BY MID WEEK. WHILE HEIGHT RISES/RIDGING PROGRESSES INTO THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY.
125 AM EDT FRI OCT 2 2015 A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND EASTERN CANADA PROVIDING A CONTINUATION OF COOL AND BREEZY CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S.
1204 AM CDT FRI OCT 2 2015 VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE FOUR STATE REGION THROUGH THE TERMINAL FORECAST PERIOD ENDING AT 03/06Z UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE ON THE SURFACE AND ALOFT.
312 AM CDT FRI OCT 2 2015 Water vapor imagery this morning shows the central plains predominantly underneath dry northwest flow aloft while two upper lows rotate over the east and west CONUS. For tonight, the upper trough axis is expected to be shunted northward towards the western high plains, breaking down the upper ridge.
651 AM EDT FRI OCT 2 2015 STRONG COOL HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS PARKED OVER ONTARIO AND QUEBEC EARLY THIS MORNING. WITH STRONG RIDGING AND DRY AIR EXTENDING THRU THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION. BEFORE DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING TAKES OVER AFTER SUNRISE AND THE LOW CLOUDS MIX OUT. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE NE AROUND THE HIGH CENTERED TO OUR NORTH. VERY LITTLE WILL CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN FOR TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS TO OUR NORTH. DO EXPECT A BIT MORE IN THE WAY OF HIGH CLOUDS LATE TONIGHT AS THE NE EDGE OF THE CLOUD SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SE US PUSHES INTO LWR MICHIGAN. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ONCE AGAIN COOL INTO THE LOWER 30S INLAND. INCREASING SUPPORT THAT EARLIER SUPPORTED PHASING/FUJIWARA EFFECT BETWEEN SOUTHEAST CONUS UPPER LEVEL LOW AND HURRICANE JOAQUIN WILL FAIL.
FAIR AND COOLER WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH AREAS OF COASTAL CLOUDS NIGHTS AND MORNINGS.
129 AM EDT FRI OCT 2 2015 A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED ACROSS ONTARIO AND QUEBEC WILL PROVIDE COOL AND DRY NORTHERLY FLOW TO THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY. WILL SEE SOME FREEZING TEMPERATURES IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND FAR NORTHEASTERN VERMONT LATE TONIGHT.
348 AM CDT FRI OCT 2 2015 SEVERAL DAYS OF PLEASANT WX ON TAP WITH RIDGING. H5 RIDGE SHOULD BEGIN FLATTENING TOWARD MIDWEEK AS A WESTERN TROF BEGINS EDGING CLOSER TO TX. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF THE MOISTURE RETURN AND APPROACH OF THE TROF. WINDS SHOULD DECREASE BY SAT AS THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE REGION.
Meanwhile at the lower levels, a tight pressure gradient is in place with ridging to our north and major hurricane Joaquin to our southeast over the Bahamas. With the low level ridge wedging into the southeast, low level cloud cover will be in place across our area through the day, keeping temperatures capped in the 70s and allowing breezy winds from the north. Forcing will be weak at the low levels, but enhanced divergence aloft from the +PV anomaly should favor convection on the eastern side of the low.
BUT I DID ALLOW FOR A BIT WARMER MAXES WHERE DOWNSLOPING COULD OCCUR. AS THE UPPER LOW DEEPENS AND JOAQUIN STAYS FURTHER EAST OF THE NC/SC COAST.
307 AM CDT FRI OCT 2 2015 THE CENTER OF AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO HOVER NEAR JAMES BAY AND WESTERN QUEBEC THROUGH SATURDAY. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP PROVIDING THE NORTHLAND WITH COOL EASTERLY FLOW. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROMOTE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS AT NIGHT. SATURDAY LOOKS JUST A TAD COOLER. THE FLOW FROM LAKE SUPERIOR WILL KEEP AREAS CLOSER TO THE LAKE WARMER IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S.
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO MEXICO WILL SLOWLY TRANSLATE EASTWARD OVER THE FORECAST AREA INTO THE EXTREME WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WHILE THE UPPER LOW OVER ALABAMA DRIFTS SOUTHEAST TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE.
520 AM CDT FRI OCT 2 2015 ANOTHER DRY AND SUNNY DAY CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AS NORTHEASTERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO BRING IN DRIER AND COOLER AIR. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD FALL IN THE LOW TO MID 50S ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. AS MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AS AN UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
202 AM CDT FRI OCT 2 2015 The upper low over the Tn valley will continue its dive southward with time. The surface gradient will respond by tightening between high pressure over Eastern Canada and low pressure over the southeast U. This will keep a fetch of nice cool n-nelys across the lower Ohio river valley.
LOW DEWPOINTS ALONG WITH NORTH WIND AROUND 10 MPH IS MAKING IT FEEL A BIT COOLER. MOSTLY IN THE LOW 70S. HERE IN THE MIDSOUTH A FINGER RIDGE WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER KEEPING US MOSTLY DRY AND MILD. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND SLIGHTLY WARMER TROUGH THE WORK WEEK AS THE RIDGE EXPANDS AND FLATTENS OUT. BUT EXPECT RAIN CHANCES TO INCREASE IN THE NEXT FORECAST UPDATES AS GUIDANCE GETS A BETTER HANDEL ON THE LOW. 30/SIRMON 06Z TAF CYCLE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR NW ALABAMA WILL GRADUALLY MOVE S/SSW OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW HAS ALREADY ARRIVED AT MKL/TUP TONIGHT AND WILL SPREAD WEST ACROSS MEM/JBR BY FRIDAY MORNING.
315 AM CDT FRI OCT 2 2015 UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR BIRMINGHAM EARLY THIS MORNING WITH MAJOR HURRICANE JOAQUIN OVER THE BAHAMAS. UPPER RIDGING ALONG THE EAST SIDE OF THE ROCKIES WITH A SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM QUEBEC SOUTHWESTWARD INTO TEXAS. CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW ARE JUST ALONG THE EASTERN BORDER OF OUR CWA EARLY THIS MORNING AND COULD AFFECT OUR COASTAL MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.
An upper level trough was progressing into the Rockies early this morning. Another deep upper level trough was situated over the Gulf Coast states. However, dewpoints were still in the lower to middle 50s from central and eastern Colorado southward into West Texas. Isentropic lift was beginning to result in the development of a few showers across the western high plains early this morning ahead of the aforementioned western trough.
SURFACE MAP AT 07Z SHOWS A WEAK TROUGH SITUATED TO OUR EAST WITH A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS MAINLY EAST OF I-65. UPPER LOW REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE BEING PULLED INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE AS A RESULT.
454 AM CDT FRI OCT 2 2015 CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES AN OBVIOUS SPIN FROM THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL ALABAMA. THE MOISTURE IS LIMITED TO THE LOWEST 300-400 MB AND ANY LOW LEVEL LIFT WILL LEAD TO SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS BUT WITH THE LOW INSTABILITY WENT AHEAD AND MENTIONED A SMALL CHANCE FOR EMBEDDED THUNDER THROUGHOUT THE DAY. 6 INCHES WITH THE MOISTURE LIMITED TO THE LOW LEVELS. LARGE UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY MIGRATE EAST AND NORTHEAST THIS PERIOD.
By Saturday, wrap around moisture in response to a low pressure system moving south along the west coast will increase precipitation, especially along the the Continental Divide.
AHEAD OF THE LOW SURFACE WINDS CONTINUE TO LOOK GUSTY THROUGH THE DAY WHICH WILL HELP TO ADVECT IN PLENTY OF MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY A WEDGE OF COLD AIR WILL WORK INTO THE WESTERN ZONES AS A REINFORCING TROUGH MOVES DOWN FROM CANADA. THIS WILL HELP TO REINFORCE THE COOLER TEMPERATURES MAINLY FROM BIG TIMBER WEST. IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO COOL ENOUGH TO GET ACCUMULATING SNOW OUTSIDE OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. TODAY TEMPERATURES ONLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S AND FOR SATURDAY WILL ONLY BE IN THE 40S TO 50S.
603 AM EDT FRI OCT 2 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION LATER TODAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A VERY LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE PUSHING INTO WESTERN QUEBEC WILL BRING CHILLY AND DRY WEATHER TO THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH JUST NORTH OF OUR AREA ASSOCIATED WITH CHILLY AIR POOLED ALOFT WILL LIKELY PRODUCE LOTS OF STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA, ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN SPOTS TODAY. LOWS WILL AGAIN BE NEAR FREEZING OVER THE NORTH AND CLOSE TO 40 DOWNEAST. THE GRADIENT SOUTH OF THE HIGH WILL RESULT IN A BRISK NORTHEAST WIND TODAY AND TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. CLOUD COVER SHOULD THEN DECREASE SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE.
A WEAK TRANSITORY UPPER RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TODAY. AN UPPER LOW DEVELOPING OVER NORTHWEST BRITISH COLUMBIA THIS MORNING WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.
229 AM EDT FRI OCT 2 2015 STRONG COOL HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS PARKED OVER ONTARIO AND QUEBEC EARLY THIS MORNING. WITH STRONG RIDGING AND DRY AIR EXTENDING THRU THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION. BEFORE DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING TAKES OVER AFTER SUNRISE AND THE LOW CLOUDS MIX OUT. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE NE AROUND THE HIGH CENTERED TO OUR NORTH. VERY LITTLE WILL CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN FOR TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS TO OUR NORTH. DO EXPECT A BIT MORE IN THE WAY OF HIGH CLOUDS LATE TONIGHT AS THE NE EDGE OF THE CLOUD SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SE US PUSHES INTO LWR MICHIGAN. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ONCE AGAIN COOL INTO THE LOWER 30S INLAND. INCREASING SUPPORT THAT EARLIER SUPPORTED PHASING/FUJIWARA EFFECT BETWEEN SOUTHEAST CONUS UPPER LEVEL LOW AND HURRICANE JOAQUIN WILL FAIL.
638 AM EDT FRI OCT 2 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DRIFTING SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL INTERACT WITH MOISTURE FROM HURRICANE JOAQUIN. THE UPPER LOW WILL INTERACT WITH THE MOISTURE FROM JOAQUIN. BUMPED HIGHS UP A COUPLE OF DEGREES FOR TODAY DUE TO THE DRYING OUT OF THE FORECAST, HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S IN THE NW TO THE UPPER 50S IN THE SE.
345 AM MST FRI OCT 2 2015 A COUPLE OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL AFFECT THE WESTERN STATES THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE FIRST WILL BE DRY AND LEAD TO LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW VERY LITTLE CHGS TO CURRENT FORECAST AS THE PERSISTENT BLOCKING TYPE UPPER AIR PATTERN CONTINUES FOR THE UPPER MIDWEST. LITTLE CHG IN THE FORECAST WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ALONG WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE.
220 AM EDT FRI OCT 2 2015 KBYX DETECTS ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER OFFSHORE GULF OF MEXICO WATERS NORTHWEST OF THE LOWER KEYS. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.
The cutoff upper level low is currently centered over northern Alabama. At the surface we will be in between low pressure to the south and high pressure to the north with a fairly tight pressure gradient across the region. A couple of disturbances rotating around the upper low from east to west will potentially bring multiple rounds of showers. The highest pops today will be east of I-65. Temperatures today will be on the cool side topping out in the upper 50s to the east and the low 60s to the west where rain will hold off the longest.
VFR FOR FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD THE ENTIRE PERIOD. VFR FOR FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD THE ENTIRE PERIOD. 500MB RIDGE ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON WILL AMPLIFY ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS A 500MB TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN U.
MORE ORGANIZED SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AND THE FIRST HALF OF SATURDAY AS S/WV ROTATES AROUND LARGER CENTRAL ROCKIES UPPER LOW. RAIN CHANCES DIMINISH THEREAFTER AS UPPER LOW SETTLES OVER SOUTHWEST U. AS UPPER LOW ATTEMPTS AN EASTWARD MOVEMENT.
WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS OVER CALIFORNIA. AN UPPER LOW WILL DROP SOUTH OUT OF WESTERN CANADA AND OVER CALIFORNIA THIS WEEKEND.
447 AM EDT FRI OCT 2 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DRIFTING SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL INTERACT WITH MOISTURE FROM HURRICANE JOAQUIN. THE UPPER LOW WILL INTERACT WITH THE MOISTURE FROM JOAQUIN. BUMPED HIGHS UP A COUPLE OF DEGREES FOR TODAY DUE TO THE DRYING OUT OF THE FORECAST, HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S IN THE NW TO THE UPPER 50S IN THE SE.
510 AM EDT FRI OCT 2 2015 A MASSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SET UP ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WITH A DEVELOPING UPPER LOW AND EXTENSIVE PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST. REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC LOOP AT 07Z SHOWS SOME AREAS OF VERY LIGHT RAIN/SHOWERS STREAMING NORTH INTO THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. TO THE L50S OVER THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. IT WILL REMAIN COOL IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S ON AVERAGE.
DENSE FOG MAY AGAIN BE AN ISSUE ON THE HIGHER PASSES NEAR THE VA BORDER SUCH AS US 119 BETWEEN WHITESBURG AND CUMBERLAND AND POUND GAP BETWEEN JENKINS AND WISE CO VA. 23Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A FAIRLY TIGHT GRADIENT ACROSS EAST KENTUCKY FROM HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES TO LOW PRESSURE OFF THE GEORGIA COAST. PARTICULARLY ON THE RIDGES OVERNIGHT. DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHEAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY HOLD IN THE MID 50S FOR HIGHS ON FRIDAY WITH LOWS NOT MUCH COOLER. AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SPINNING ACROSS THE GULF COAST PUMPS MOISTURE INTO THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEY REGIONS OVER THE WEEKEND.
COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO ANTICIPATED TODAY DUE TO EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND UPSLOPE LOW LEVEL SE WINDS. THE THREAT FOR MORE SHOWERS AND TSTMS INCREASES AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ZIPS NNEWD OUT OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION TOWARDS ERN MT AND WRN ND.
A RATHER IMPRESSIVE AND SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW. LOW PRESSURE IN THE ATMOSPHERIC LOWER LEVELS. A LITTLE EAST OF THE UPPER LOW CENTER. WILL USE COOL NORTHEAST FLOW TO WRAP MOISTURE AND CLOUDS AROUND INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.
1237 AM CDT FRI OCT 2 2015 FOR 06Z TAFS /ISSUED 945 PM CDT THU OCT 1 2015/ UPPER LEVEL LOW IS NOW LOCATED JUST WEST OF CULLMAN COUNTY PER LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY LOOPS. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE FURTHER SOUTH OVERNIGHT INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA. AS THE LOW PULLS FURTHER AND FURTHER SOUTH OVERNIGHT THE LAPSE RATES IN THE REGION OF ELEVATED CAPE BECOME LESS STEEP AND THE CHANCE OF THUNDER DECREASES. ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW POSITIONED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD CONTINUE THIS TAF PERIOD.
THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH IS MOVING INTO THE DEEP SOUTH THIS MORNING WHILE AT THE SURFACE. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S NORTH. JOAQUIN IS THEN EXPECTED TO START LIFTING NORTH TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LOW SHIFTS SLIGHTLY EAST OVER NORTH FL/SOUTH GA/SOUTH AL. COOLER TEMPS WILL ALSO BE MOVING INTO THE AREA FOR TONIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S NORTH.
A WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH JUST EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SHARPEN WITH LITTLE MOVEMENT. SOME PATCHY FROST POSSIBLE IN THE LOW AREAS MAINLY OF SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN NORTHWEST OF MADISON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED NORTH/NORTHEAST OF THE GREAT LAKES.