Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Early in the day convection across our south and central counties helped to keep much of these areas cooler compared to the Tampa Bay Area. Cooler is relative, of course. High pressure from the Atlantic extending west across the south central Florida peninsula and into the eastern Gulf will support tranquil boating conditions over the Gulf waters tonight and through the remainder of the week, with light southwest to west winds and slight seas with an enhanced onshore sea breeze component developing along the coast each afternoon.
Will continue to monitor satellite and radar trends for storm initiation potential along the warm front or within the axis of instability stretching from near Minot to the west across the FA.
1015 PM EDT Mon Jul 26 2021 High pressure and summertime heat will persist through midweek.
Chances for showers and storms will continue this afternoon and evening as a weak upper trough and associated boundary move to the southeast.
Today looks like a repeat of today, although with a little more convective coverage given less capping aloft per forecast soundings as the mid-level ridge looks to weaken. A few weak disturbances are noted within and around the expansive ridge, including a couple of weak impulses over the western and northeast Gulf of Mexico. At the sfc, weak high pres acrs the region was resulting in light and generally vrbl winds, while a weak trough was noted over the cntl and eastern Gulf. KLCH radar shows sctd showers and storms developing from NE LA southward to the lower Atchafalaya Basin, within an axis of 2+ inch PWATs.
The strong ridge of high pressure spread over a wide region will easily allow high temperatures to climb above 100 degrees. This high pressure ridge stretches from California in the west, to Montana in the north, and over to Mississippi in the southeast, with the center anchored over Wyoming. Only chance is if a small-scale embedded disturbance slides up and around the peak of the ridge in the NW flow aloft. Otherwise, upper level ridging will remain in place allowing for hot afternoon temperatures that can impact density altitude values.
648 PM CDT Mon Jul 26 2021 The initial forecast concern is the heat related headlines before some cooler/thunderstorm chances come back to the forecast.
1012 PM EDT Mon Jul 26 2021 Weak high pressure will maintain control through early Tuesday, with rain free conditions.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue over the district this evening, especially over the higher elevations of the Sierra as well as Kern county mountains and desert.
735 PM EDT Mon Jul 26 2021 High pressure and summertime heat will persist through midweek.
1055 PM EDT Mon Jul 26 2021 Weak high pressure will maintain control through early Tuesday, with rain free conditions.
High pressure will continue to settle down across the region tonight through Tuesday, pushing slightly lower dew point air into the area, especially from southern IL into southwest IN.
Muggy conditions are otherwise forecast tonight, with lows only in the low to near mid 70s. Areas mainly east of I-65 and near/south of the Tennessee River will have the higher rain chances, with lower chances more to our NW. More muggy conditions with lows in the lower 70s.
605 PM CDT Mon Jul 26 2021 High pressure centered over southeast Iowa has brought clear conditions to most of the region today with a steady feed of drier air from the northeast. Aloft, the upper level ridge across the Rockies will begin to expand and intensify into the central Plains on Tuesday. Rising heights and return flow on the western side of the departing ridge of high pressure will lead to an increase in temperature on Tuesday with highs in the lower 90s.
High pressure and strong cap in place but starting to retreat to the west. The ridge slips further west rain chances creep into the eastern areas during the late afternoon hours.
738 PM EDT Mon Jul 26 2021 Weak high pressure will maintain control through early Tuesday, with rain free conditions.
622 PM EDT Mon Jul 26 2021 Weak high pressure will maintain control through early Tuesday, with rain free conditions.
637 PM CDT Mon Jul 26 2021 Highlights: 1) Scattered showers and storms this afternoon and evening (see Mesoscale Discussion above) 2) Persistent heat with heat indices of 100-105 A ridge continues to move into the Plains to cover the western half of the CONUS.
A modest southerly flow is back in place across southeast Arizona, in between a low pushing into the Pacific and high pressure to our northeast and east. Lower deserts to our west are continuing to see a bit deeper lower level moisture transport to help counter a mid level dry slot wrapping around the low from the south.
Overnight lows will be mild again in the low to mid 70s for most locations. Areas mainly east of I-65 and near/south of the Tennessee River will have the higher rain chances, with lower chances more to our NW. More muggy conditions with lows in the lower 70s.
1019 PM EDT Mon Jul 26 2021 Notable synoptic features across the basin include two upper lows, one near the Texas-Mexico coast, the other over eastern Cuba. A large anticyclone centered to the southeast of Bermuda reaches west across the Bahamas. From synopsis, a ridge axis will straddle Florida over the next several days.
Cooler temperatures early this week before warming to above average again by mid-week. Monsoon moisture continues to build north into NorCal around a strong upper level ridge set up over the central part of the country. The main feature we are keeping an eye on is a short wave trough currently in SoCal that is spinning around the ridge. This short wave trough will continue to track north into the overnight and tomorrow and will be accompanied by the higher moisture values. The best chances will be over the higher elevations. Overall the showers are not going to produce much rain given the amount of dry air under the mid-level moisture but a brief downpour can't be ruled out mainly over the higher elevations.
BYX VAD shows winds in the lowest three thousand feet winds are light from the southwest. Models are indicating that the low level winds should become more southerly through the morning.
Upper level analysis has the ridge extending over the Rockies, with northwest flow across the area. It is going to remain hot through Wednesday as the upper ridge continues to build and shifts east into the Western High Plains.
An upper ridge will remain centered from the Central Rockies into the Central Plains tonight and Tuesday. On Wednesday, the upper ridge will remain centered over the Central Plains. Upper troughing will increasing across the Great Lakes Region. This will drive a cold front southward into central South Dakota.
With high pressure just east of the area, monsoonal moisture will spread northward across Utah and southwest Wyoming by Tuesday. The low that had been tracking across the Desert Southwest has moved off the southern California coast this evening, adjusting the persistent ridge axis just east of the area. As this high weakens overnight, so will these winds. Increasing stability behind a weak upper level disturbance will also curb the convective threat over western and far southern Utah, with the best storms tomorrow anticipated over the higher terrain of northern and central Utah.
Also, the upper level ridge is forecast to weaken just slightly over the area.
(Today and tonight) Upper level ridge remains to the north, with generally easterly flow aloft across the area for today and tonight.
Most models are pointing to a genesis area over southeast ND toward evening in vicinity of synoptic scale warm front. The eastern CWA would be the most vulnerable given its proximity to stronger winds aloft and slightly cooler mid-level temperatures.
114 AM MDT Tue Jul 27 2021 The latest RAP40 500 mb analysis along with mid level water vapor continue to show a large dome of high pressure over much of the western portion of the country, and a trough east. Latest models continue to show the upper ridge to shift over the Plains region during the short term period. Over the next 72 hours, surface conditions will keep a southerly fetch over the area, as lee-side troughing over the eastern Rockies and high pressure east sets up the expected gradient, and subsequent WAA.
Tonight thru Wednesday Arkansas will remain on the eastern side of an upper level ridge of high pressure that is dominating the western two-thirds of the country. At the surface a weak high pressure area over the midwest will slide slowly eastward.
218 AM MDT Tue Jul 27 2021 Hot upper ridge remains in place today with low level thermal profiles peaking today/Wednesday. Ridge begins its westward shift Wednesday, allowing cold front to slip into northeast Wyoming/northwest South Dakota Wednesday morning. Ridge amplifies over the Rockies going into the weekend, with northwest flow over the Northern Plains.
However, slightly cooler conditions (lower 80s) will be felt near the lake due to a light onshore breeze. Confidence is not the highest with any outflow making it into our area, but if it does, it could result in a period of onshore flow and cooler conditions near the lake on Tuesday. Again confidence is not the highest that we will see much activity during this period, but with increasing lower-level moisture, I cannot rule out the possibility.
Will basically keep the small chances along and east of the Buffalo Ridge. A few model soundings do hint at breaking the cap at the expense of drying out the low levels and obliterating the instability, but would still be enough for a couple of weak updrafts. Winds will remain southerly at night which should support low sin the lower to mid 70s most locations. As the upper level jet max shifts east it will drag a weak front south which will provide the area with some enhanced mixing as the low level winds turn more westerly. With the potential for quite a bit of dry air in the low levels a south or southwest progressing cold pool could allow for some strong wind gusts if thunderstorms can get going.
Overnight lows will be mild again in the low to mid 70s for most locations. Areas mainly east of I-65 and near/south of the Tennessee River will have the higher rain chances, with lower chances more to our NW. More muggy conditions with lows in the lower 70s. Highs on Wednesday should rise into the low/mid 90s, with heat index values in the 100-106 range.
As the ridge of high pressure transitions and strengthens just north of the Rockies, the monsoonal flow pulls moisture a bit further west and north extending into the deserts of California and Nevada. not widespread, but some scattered coverage along the higher terrain, including the Mogollon Rim, White and Chuska Mountains, and the Kaibab Plateau. Moisture advection increases for Wednesday as the center of the ridge settles over the Rockies, resulting in a return to more widespread chances for thunderstorms across northern Arizona.
With the high pushing further to our east, we'll see weak low level winds shift to the ESE today and the south on Wednesday.
The high precipitable water axis will shift southward into Oklahoma, however cannot rule out a rogue shower or storm for this afternoon. Upper level ridge center will be over Kansas for this period.
High pressure will continue to settle down across the region tonight through Tuesday, pushing slightly lower dew point air into the area, especially from southern IL into southwest IN. Wednesday, heights rise with the ridge to our west expanding across the area.
255 AM EDT Tue Jul 27 2021 A strong U/L ridge over the central plains extends to the southeast U. bridging with another area of high pressure over the western Atlantic. The southern extent of the associated U/L trough will cause a break/weakness in the ridge along the southeast coast and north Florida.
322 AM CDT Tue Jul 27 2021 Early morning water vapor imagery shows that the monsoon moisture entrained within the building upper ridge has shifted northward and thinned a bit from 24 hours ago. However, this moisture will pivot back across the Rolling Plains later today as the center of the upper high shifts eastward and amplifies over Nebraska and Kansas.
High pressure will remain anchored to the north of the area through the short term forecast period, keeping us mostly dry with warm temperatures and weak onshore flow. Moisture will increase through the day today as a mid level trough shifts west from the Gulf of Mexico into Deep South/South Texas. Moisture will continue to increase tonight and Wednesday as the trough continues to drift west along the southern periphery of the ridge, with PWATs increasing to around 2.
1028 PM CDT Mon Jul 26 2021 High pressure centered over southeast Iowa has brought clear conditions to most of the region today with a steady feed of drier air from the northeast. Aloft, the upper level ridge across the Rockies will begin to expand and intensify into the central Plains on Tuesday. Rising heights and return flow on the western side of the departing ridge of high pressure will lead to an increase in temperature on Tuesday with highs in the lower 90s.
A mid level ridge of high pressure will continue to build north into the area through the week, sending temperatures to above normal levels for the next several days. Southwesterly flow aloft continues across the area around the western periphery of the pronounced upper level ridge of high pressure. Temperatures will steadily warm through the latter portion of the week as mid level heights climb with the southwestern ridge building into the area.
Winds will generally be light, and tend to turn to the north and northwest this afternoon with a cold frontal passage, and eventually northeast.
307 AM EDT Tue Jul 27 2021 A cold front will cross Lake Ontario this afternoon and push thunderstorms across NY and PA through the early evening hours.
1133 PM CDT Mon Jul 26 2021 Highlights: 1) Scattered showers and storms this afternoon and evening (see Mesoscale Discussion above) 2) Persistent heat with heat indices of 100-105 A ridge continues to move into the Plains to cover the western half of the CONUS.
312 AM CDT Tue Jul 27 2021 High pressure was over the region early this morning with mostly clear skies and calm or light southerly winds. Dew points were mostly in the lower and middle 60s. Today, a light southwesterly breeze will bring warmer and slightly more humid air into the region today, with mostly sunny skies. Have slight chance pops for the highway 20 corridor after midnight tonight.
CD Chattanooga Airport, TN 91 73 95 72 97 / 40 10 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 91 72 96 71 97 / 30 10 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 91 69 95 70 96 / 30 10 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 90 66 94 66 94 / 20 10 0 0 0.
131 AM EDT Tue Jul 27 2021 Weak high pressure will maintain control through early Tuesday, with rain free conditions. It will be a very warm afternoon again, with highs ranging from the 80s over much of central PA, to the lower 90s in some of the southern and eastern valleys.
SHORT TERM (Today through Wednesday): An inverted trough has developed over the western Gulf of Mexico and is expected to move across Deep South Texas today as it rotates around the base of the mid level ridge.
With temperatures expected to climb into the lower to middle 90s across the the area this afternoon and Dewpoints in the 70s this afternoon, heat index values will climb into the 100 to 106 range.
347 AM EDT Tue Jul 27 2021 High pressure and summertime heat will persist through midweek.
Large scale pattern consisting of a dome of high pressure in control across the central and western CONUS with decent moisture riding over the top across the Pacific NW/northern Rockies. At the surface an area of low pressure was centered over n-central SD. Along with daytime heating, as dew points will crawl back into the low 70s, unpleasant sultry conditions will ensue this afternoon.
At the mid-levels, a broad ridge is centered across much of the CONUS with high pressure centered over the central Plains into the Intermountain West. The humid atmospheric conditions tonight are well-represented by dew points in the upper 70s to around 80 across much of the area with the exception being localized drier air in the Shreveport-Bossier metro with dew points in the lower 70s.
220 AM EDT Tue Jul 27 2021 Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb ridge in the Rockies and plains with a trough over the ern U. , which isn't unreasonable given the expectation of the upper ridge meandering to the ENE by then.
251 AM EDT Tue Jul 27 2021 East-west oriented ridging at the sfc and aloft over Illinois and Indiana will give us a hot and vaguely humid day with virtually no rain in sight.
123 AM EDT Tue Jul 27 2021 High pressure and summertime heat will persist through midweek.
Atlantic high pressure ridge will build westward across SOFL as the weak low pressure areas meanders along the GA/SC coasts.
Diurnal heating should provide plentiful amounts of surface-based instability with high temperatures today reaching into the lower to mid 90s today. Factoring in the humidity and light winds, apparent temperatures will reach into the lower 100s across much of the area. To the southeast of the area, a tropical upper tropospheric trough (TUTT) is moving into the southern Bahamas and eastern Cuba.
Conditions will remain quite muggy overnight, with lows dropping into the low to mid 70s. Models shift the highest +2. 0" PWATS across south/southeastern portions of the forecast area, and this is where the model consensus keep the highest PoPs. The large scale pattern through the medium range will continue to feature strong ridging over the west-central US and troughing over the eastern US.
333 AM CDT Tue Jul 27 2021 The upper level high pressure area will make its move today and build over the central U. The main issue today and Wednesday will be the high temperatures, humidity, and subsequent heat index values. As the boundary moves north today, so will the higher dewpoints. We also have to consider the smoke aloft and its affect on the high temperatures for both today and Wednesday.
(Today through Wednesday afternoon) WV imagery shows the upper ridge has shifted east over the past 24 hours, and is now centered over WY/CO. This will continue to keep the low level thermal ridge west and northwest of the CWA. However, temperatures this afternoon should be similar to yesterday's, if not a degree or two warmer, and the NBM seems to have a good handle on this. Wednesday, models are in agreement in dropping thicknesses, as well as increasing cloud cover a bit, as an upper trough passes south of the Big Bend Area.
Cooler temperatures persist today before warming to above average again by mid-week. The deepening moisture, but lack of strong lift or much elevated instability, is resulting in scattered light showers across the northern Sierra and southern Cascade Range with a few sprinkles at the lower elevations.
Smaller scale anticyclonic circulations can be inferred in the broader area of high pressure across the area, one of which has helped maintain a monsoonal moisture fetch over the Panhandles. Low level moisture will be best in the eastern zones where dew points should stay in the low to mid 60s. Tomorrow, drier air is expected to start moving in as winds aloft become more easterly in response to the 500mb high pressure center re-orienting over the central plains.
Building mid/upper level ridge axis from the Central Plains into the MidSouth looks to keep most convective chances over the far south during the mid to late week timeframe.
600 AM EDT Tue Jul 27 2021 High pressure with drier air through Wednesday. Already seeing the mountain valleys fill up, and would expect this to continue out into the lower elevations through daybreak. Despite highs across the lower elevations rising in the low 90s, aforementioned drier air advecting in will yield afternoon dew points in the lower 60s north/mid 60s south with heat index values topping out between 90 and 95. In closer proximity to the fleeing cold frontal boundary to our south, can't completely rule out a isolated shower or thunderstorm this afternoon, but chances are very low and will be confined to our SW VA and southernmost WV counties. Drier and overall less humid than recent on Wednesday as high pressure continues to hang tight.
It will remain hot and quite muggy today with temperatures again climbing into the lower to mid 90s prior to the onset of the storms with the high humidity levels supporting heat indices in the 102-106 degrees range which will make for some very uncomfortable outdoor conditions. High pressure over the area will maintain tranquil boating conditions on the Gulf waters the remainder of today with southwest winds in the 5 to 10 knot range with slight seas with an enhanced onshore sea breeze component developing along the coast during the afternoon.
Another hot and smokey day will occur across the Northern Rockies with high temperatures back into the mid 90s High pressure over Colorado continues to spread monsoonal moisture across the western U.
651 AM EDT Tue Jul 27 2021 High pressure and summertime heat will persist through midweek.
/issued 322 AM CDT Tue Jul 27 2021/ Early morning water vapor imagery shows that the monsoon moisture entrained within the building upper ridge has shifted northward and thinned a bit from 24 hours ago. However, this moisture will pivot back across the Rolling Plains later today as the center of the upper high shifts eastward and amplifies over Nebraska and Kansas.
506 AM EDT Tue Jul 27 2021 Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb ridge in the Rockies and plains with a trough over the ern U. Models suggest the pattern will amplify as the mid/upper level ridge builds through western Canada and a trough deepens across the eastern CONUS.
351 AM MDT Tue Jul 27 2021 High pressure building into the High Plains today looks to bring some capping to the thunderstorm activity over the northeast CWA. The center of the high will drift farther East into the Central Plains and this looks to pull moisture back into our northeast CWA.
Expect the highest PoP coverage throughout the day near these areas.
723 AM EDT Tue Jul 27 2021 Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb ridge in the Rockies and plains with a trough over the ern U. Models suggest the pattern will amplify as the mid/upper level ridge builds through western Canada and a trough deepens across the eastern CONUS.
The region is positioned between an upper level ridge centered over the Rockies and an upper-level low over the Deep South Texas/northeastern Mexico. The influence of the ridge aloft becomes weaker, resulting in a more dominant easterly flow over the region. 0 inches) with moderate instability at low to mid-levels and convective temperatures in the low 90s. Highs are expected to reach the low to mid 90s.
Very warm and humid conds have been noted overnight, with predawn temps in the mid 70s to the lower 80s. Expect highs the next 2 days to warm into the lower and mid 90s at most locations.
The high pressure system that has been a dominant feature over the Rockies, slides eastward over us.
Large area of high pressure at mid levels will dominate the weather pattern the next 24 hours. Can't rule out isold - tsra over the remainder of the higher terrain. As for temps today, expect 90s across nearly all of the plains with the hottest temps along the lower Ark Rvr Valley. Cooler and more Unsettled Weather for the Weekend.
441 AM MDT Tue Jul 27 2021 Hot upper ridge remains in place today with low level thermal profiles peaking today/Wednesday. Ridge begins its westward shift Wednesday, allowing cold front to slip into northeast Wyoming/northwest South Dakota Wednesday morning. Ridge amplifies over the Rockies going into the weekend, with northwest flow over the Northern Plains.
The reasoning behind the flow aloft is because of an upper level inverted trough pushing across the area. The upper level inverted trough weakens as an upper level ridging develops across the Hill Country this afternoon. The weather pattern chances for Wednesday as another upper level inverted trough associated with a tropical wave moves across the area.
642 AM EDT Tue Jul 27 2021 A frontal boundary will wash out across the region today as weak high pressure builds in from the north.