Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
/issued 349 AM CST Sun Dec 1 2019/ LCH radar showing the last remaining showers associated with the cold front continuing to move out of the region, with only light showers offshore currently. FROPA overall was a little behind schedule resulting in a bit of a lag for the cooler and drier air to push in, but obs showing temps/dew points in the 50s/30s just outside the northern CWA boundary indicating it isn't far behind. Cooler air will be noted better by Monday with morning lows around 10 to 15 degrees below that of what is expected for this morning, and high temperatures around 10 or so degrees below normal.
252 AM MST Sun Dec 1 2019 Across the Tri State region this morning, skies are mainly clear, except for extreme NE portions of the forecast area seeing low cloud cover on the backside of an exiting low pressure system. Winds across the CWA, although not as strong as they were earlier in the evening during the High Wind Warning, are still showing NW gusts in the 35-45 mph range. Going into today, looking for clearing trend in the east to continue allowing for sunny skies thru the day as high pressure builds over the region. The gradient between the exiting low and approaching ridge will remain tight thru the day with a continued slow downward trend in winds. with ridge approaching off the rockies from the north/northwest.
Light snow mixed with rain in the lower elevations will impact the Sierra and Owens Valley through Monday afternoon.
These winds will move east into the advisory area as the low and subsequently the pressure gradient moves east this morning. These winds will continue through late this afternoon before the pressure gradient begins to relax as the low moves farther east. Snow showers have already moved into the northern CWA as water vapor imagery is showing that the upper low is now over eastern Iowa. The snow showers will become more numerous through the morning as they rotate southeastward out of Iowa as the upper low moves east this morning. The chance will not end until tonight when forecast soundings finally show the atmosphere drying out as the upper low exits the area.
309 AM CST Sun Dec 1 2019 Another night of howling winds is upon us in less than a week as a deep vertically stacked low pressure system moves through the region. Overall a trace of snow may be possible over northern Missouri by the afternoon timeframe as the backs side of the low pressure pushes through the region.
/issued 329 AM CST Sun Dec 1 2019/ As upper low moves east of the plains high pressure ridge over the Western US will build into the region.
303 AM CST Sun Dec 1 2019 Current satellite and RAP model analysis depicts a strong upper level low over Iowa and slight ridging over Nevada up into western Idaho. The low over Iowa is what had brought 50 to 60 mph gust into the FA yesterday. Winds have let up and the FA is now under northwest flow aloft and will be over the next couple of days before the ridge in the west gets here.
1131 AM CST Sun Dec 1 2019 18Z TAFS Brisk northwesterly winds will continue through the evening in the wake of a cold front that pushed through the area last night. /issued 349 AM CST Sun Dec 1 2019/ LCH radar showing the last remaining showers associated with the cold front continuing to move out of the region, with only light showers offshore currently. FROPA overall was a little behind schedule resulting in a bit of a lag for the cooler and drier air to push in, but obs showing temps/dew points in the 50s/30s just outside the northern CWA boundary indicating it isn't far behind. Cooler air will be noted better by Monday with morning lows around 10 to 15 degrees below that of what is expected for this morning, and high temperatures around 10 or so degrees below normal.
A low pressure system off the coast of northern California will send a batch of precipitation into the region tonight and Monday. This is an overrunning situation with warmer air trying to force the colder air out of the region. As such, there's a possibility of some patchy freezing rain in the greater Burley area late tonight into early Monday morning. So, think if freezing rain does develop that it would be very brief before changing back over to snow or to all rain. Heaviest snowfall amounts into midday Monday are expected to be from Shoshone to Stanley where 2 to 4 inches is possible with up to 8 inches possible at ridgetop level.
The low pressure system will move east this morning taking the snow and winds with it. High pressure will move in behind the low. Dry and cold conditions are expected on Monday with a few clouds moving back in as upper troughing digs in.
Low pressure continues to move east of the area with a strong pressure gradient over the forecast area. Ridge will move across the area on Monday with light winds and mostly clear skies but continued cool with highs in 40s.
So think we could continue to see some of the higher gusts around 40 MPH through the early afternoon. Windy conditions continue across the forecast area, as a deep upper low to our northeast continues to slowly advance eastward toward the Ohio Valley. Cloud cover will run a similar course, with stratus wrapping around the upper low into eastern Kansas through the morning, but also advancing eastward in the afternoon. As winds diminish and clouds decrease, overnight lows drop into the upper teens north to the low 20s across the south.
Have gone on the cooler side of guidance for lows tonight as skies should remain mostly clear. A surface lee-side trough will develop over southeast Colorado and eastern New Mexico early on Monday, so winds will pick up again out of the south and southwest. Warm air advection will also pick up across the Panhandles, so highs should be about 10 to 15 degrees warmer than today.
208 PM EST Sun Dec 1 2019 A mix of rain and snow showers will continue this afternoon into Monday morning as an upper level low moves through. Some slushy snow accums cannot be ruled out this evening/early overnight with little impact anticipated to roads as sfc temps likely stay above freezing into much of tonight. The upper low is directly overhead this afternoon causing steepened lapse rates across the region. As a result instability showers have developed across the area as the low slowly drifts to the east. By daybreak Monday the low will be well to the east of the Ohio Valley.
Early afternoon analysis shows the closed/stacked upper low that has plagued the region with all types of weather the past few days slowly meandering eastward into the lower Great Lakes, with occasional bands of snow continuing to pivot southward across the area. Given this and cooler temperatures arriving, will allow the current suite of advisories to continue through 00Z, though the overall impact may be relatively minor. Per upstream satellite trends, plenty of clearing to the north should overtake the region through the night, persisting into Monday as low/mid level ridging works through the region.
The current weather pattern across the CONUS is defined by a deep closed low centered over northern Indiana with troughing across the eastern half of the CONUS and ridging over the western CONUS. West northwest flow aloft is in place across Texas with high pressure continuing to build over the region. Overnight lows will range from near freezing across the Hill Country to the upper 30s/low 40s elsewhere. Expect another pleasant day tomorrow, with highs in the mid 60s once more under clear skies with generally light winds as high pressure remains in place across Texas.
An uneventful period can be expected tonight through late Monday afternoon as weak ridging aloft moves across the Colorado Rockies into the Western High Plains. Well below freezing temperatures are likely tonight despite the aforementioned prevailing downslope flow beginning to slowly erode the colder air mass in place. Much warmer temperatures can be expected Monday as a developing lee side trough sets creates a more southwesterly downslope flow across western Kansas. This will draw warmer air into the area pushing H85 temperatures above 5C.
133 PM CST Sun Dec 1 2019 The low pressure system responsible for the strong winds and light snow yesterday and last night is departing the area to the east. On Monday we should warm up a bit as midlevel ridging builds overhead and southwesterly winds return at the surface.
1049 AM CST Sun Dec 1 2019 Another night of howling winds is upon us in less than a week as a deep vertically stacked low pressure system moves through the region. Overall a trace of snow may be possible over northern Missouri by the afternoon timeframe as the backs side of the low pressure pushes through the region.
The backside of the an upper level closed low. the southern portion of the associated cloud cover to the low was pushing through Northeast Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas. the upper low is expected to continue its easterly track into the Great Lakes region. As the backside of the low begins to finally exit the Plains. The result should be temps only warming into the lower 40s underneath the cloud cover.
WV imagery indicates a northwest flow aloft prevailing across the Western High Plains downstream of a weak upper level ridge shifting slowly east across the Intermountain West. Near the surface, an area of high pressure is moving drifting slowly east across the Colorado Rockies. Teens will be possible across much of west central Kansas while elsewhere the lows tonight are expected to be in the 20 to 25 degree range. A warming trend can be expected during the first few days of the work week as an upper level ridge builds east in response to a deepening upper low sliding south off the west coast.
/This Afternoon/ As expected, the pressure gradient has tightened this morning across OK/ECntrl TX into the Lower MS Valley, well away from a strong but stacked sfc/upper low over Ern IL/Wrn IN. However, 16z temps have trended a bit warmer than depicted, with the cold advection ceasing already despite the gusty NW winds. Thus, strong insolation will yield a bit warmer temps than forecast, mainly across E TX/N LA along/S of I-20.
Winds continue to pick up from the west as the pressure gradient increases thanks to the approaching upper low and associated surface cyclone/front. A cold front will sweep through the region later today bringing increased chances for precipitation and elevated wly/nwly winds through the period. CDG Chattanooga Airport, TN 37 44 31 49 33 / 20 10 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 36 42 32 46 33 / 40 40 10 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 36 42 30 46 32 / 40 40 10 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 34 40 29 42 31 / 50 50 30 0 10 TN.
Roads should remain wet as temps remain steady in the lower-mid 30s then climb to mid to upper 30s by noon Monday. Higher elevations will stay cooler with steep lapse rates and very cold air aloft in this pattern.
211 PM CST Sun Dec 1 2019 The large vertically stacked low pressure is slowly shifting east away from the area this afternoon. These showers are now moving southeast, reflecting that we are now on the western periphery of the upper low circulation. This trend should hold, with precipitation ending before dropping much below freezing, which should combine with the wind, to dry out road surfaces enough to prevent a flash freeze impact. Lows in the northwest should drop to the lower 20s with clearing before dawn, while the southeast sees clouds through daybreak, and lows in the upper 20s.
Temperatures will drop below freezing, with lows of 29 to 32. Highs Monday are expected in the lower to mid 60s with sunny skies.
Winds are expected to diminish overnight, and the low clouds will shift eastward into tomorrow.
An uneventful period can be expected tonight through late Monday afternoon as weak ridging aloft moves across the Colorado Rockies into the Western High Plains. Well below freezing temperatures are likely tonight despite the aforementioned prevailing downslope flow beginning to slowly erode the colder air mass in place. Much warmer temperatures can be expected Monday as a developing lee side trough sets creates a more southwesterly downslope flow across western Kansas. This will draw warmer air into the area pushing H85 temperatures above 5C. A warming trend can be expected during the first few days of the work week as an upper level ridge builds east in response to a deepening upper low sliding south off the west coast.
Temperatures could be tricky given some west to northwest winds overnight and downslope component, but preferred guidance hedges a bit warmer in the east and cooler in the west where winds will be lighter longer.
Westerlies have invaded the Gulf of Mexico, riding along the southern flank of a potent mid- latitude cyclone over the Ohio River Valley. High pressure centered east of the Bahamas has receded east over the past 24 hours, giving way to a cold front surging southeast away from the northern Gulf Coasts. Highs will reach the lower 80s with dewpoints climbing to near 70. High pressure over the western Atlantic will continue to slip further offshore this afternoon, as a cold front advances into the southeastern United States and the eastern Gulf of Mexico. In wake of the front, high pressure centered near Texas will move slowly eastward to the Carolina Coasts. BKN clouds around FL030 and SW winds will increase Monday morning ahead of an approaching cold front.
Winds continue to pick up from the west as the pressure gradient increases thanks to the approaching upper low and associated surface cyclone/front. ABM Chattanooga Airport, TN 61 37 44 31 49 / 30 20 10 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 61 36 42 32 46 / 40 40 40 10 0 Oak Ridge, TN 58 36 42 30 46 / 30 40 40 10 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 59 34 40 29 42 / 50 50 50 30 0 TN.
Although still expecting temperatures to fall behind surface dry cold frontal passage this morning that will usher in a colder airmass to the mid state region as the afternoon hours progress, temperatures in some locations look to have the potential of continuing to warm for a few more hours this morning, especially across central and southwestern mid state locations.
The upper low centered near 42N/130W is heading southeast toward the CA coast, and this will decrease the upper level support for snow.
Model consensus is showing a band of moderate to heavy snow moving into that area this evening with 2 to 5 inches likely with up to 8 inches possible near ridgetops.
On Monday, the southwesterly and westerly winds will help usher in some warmer air. Expect temperatures to reach the mid to upper 30s in most of western North Dakota, highs in the lower 30s for parts of central North Dakota.
901 AM CST Sun Dec 1 2019 The High Wind Warning has been allowed to expire.
Gusty westerly winds will continue into the mid afternoon hours before starting to weaken late afternoon and this evening in response to the backside of an upper level low exiting the Plains. The backside of the an upper level closed low. the southern portion of the associated cloud cover to the low was pushing through Northeast Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas. the upper low is expected to continue its easterly track into the Great Lakes region. As the backside of the low begins to finally exit the Plains. The result should be temps only warming into the lower 40s underneath the cloud cover.
The potent cyclone that brought strong winds and light snow to Nebraska had shifted to the east by midday; heading toward the Ohio River Valley. water vapor satellite imagery showed a fetch of mid and high level moisture streaming onshore ahead of the next closed low off the Oregon/CA coast. Ridging was over the Four-Corners area with the large closed low over Indiana.
We will undergo significant height rises for the next few days with ridging moving overhead. As a result, temperatures will be warmer for the next several days.
Recent trends would suggest that the potential to reach criteria would become less through the afternoon hours as 3-hr pressure changes have begun to weaken and the upper low continues to push away from the CWA.
Reinforcing high pressure will push southward tonight, but mainly east of our area. Mainly sunny skies tomorrow will fight against cooler air and result in temperatures pretty similar to today.
88D returns show some widely scattered showers moving onshore from the Gulf this evening from just offshore the Tampa Bay waters extending northeast into Pasco county along a pre-frontal trough, while partly cloudy skies were being observed across the remainder of the forecast area. As for the rest of tonight expect to see additional showers pop up along and ahead of a cold front which will be moving south through the area later tonight and early on Monday, and then south of the forecast area during Monday afternoon. In the wake of the front noticeably cooler and drier air will advect into the region on Monday on a breezy to windy northwest wind flow with high temperatures on Monday only rising to around 60 to the lower 60s north, mid to upper 60s central, and lower 70s far south.
Northerly winds have begun to diminish into the late afternoon, and will continue to stay light through the remainder of the TAF period as high pressure builds. /issued 304 PM CST Sun Dec 1 2019/ SHORT TERM (Tonight through Monday Night): The cooler and drier airmass that has moved in behind the fropa earlier this morning will maintain milder temps and low pops across the RGV throughout tomorrow night. The surface ridging will slide off to the east and northeast through Mon/Mon Night allowing for return of some weak onshore low level wind flow. The low level moisture return does not appear sufficient through Mon Night to increase the potential for inland fog.
546 PM CST Sun Dec 1 2019 Cold high pressure will move over wrn and ncntl Nebraska tonight and this should open a window for strong radiational cooling for at least a few hours before return flow develops. A weak cold front will move through wrn and ncntl Nebraska Monday night. The models signal a strong cold front next Sunday.
319 PM CST Sun Dec 1 2019 Cold high pressure will move over wrn and ncntl Nebraska tonight and this should open a window for strong radiational cooling for at least a few hours before return flow develops. A weak cold front will move through wrn and ncntl Nebraska Monday night. The models signal a strong cold front next Sunday.
Travel problems are still expected for the higher mountain elevations.
329 PM CST Sun Dec 1 2019 Wrap around clouds, and light precip will continue to work into the region tonight as a deep mid level trof drifts east across northern IN. However, no impacts are expected with very light precip and sfc temps just above the freezing mark. Would not be surprised though if we have trouble shrugging what could be a stubborn stratus deck on the back side of the upper trof, especially in locations along/east of the MS River.
With widespread dewpoints in the teens and 20s tonight/early Mon morning, clear skies, and light winds temps will drop below freezing across the entire region. Zonal to quasi-zonal flow over the southern Rockies will continue through most of the week as a closed low moves onshore near southern Cal.
523 PM CST Sun Dec 1 2019 The low pressure system responsible for the strong winds and light snow yesterday and last night is departing the area to the east. On Monday we should warm up a bit as midlevel ridging builds overhead and southwesterly winds return at the surface.
Strong Cold Front will Sweep Through Overnight. Southwest flow ahead of a strong cold front is keeping temps mild this evening, in the low to mid 70s. Temps will be noticeably cooler than today with highs ranging from the mid 60s Orlando northward to the mid 70s Okeechobee to the Treasure coast. Ocnl MVFR CIGs expected thru the overnight ahead of and along a cold front which will push south of SUA just after 12Z.
A weak trough will pass through the area dry on Monday leading to a wind shift throughout the day.
Wrap around clouds, and light precip will continue to work into the region tonight as a deep mid level trof drifts east across northern IN. However, no impacts are expected with very light precip and sfc temps just above the freezing mark. Would not be surprised though if we have trouble shrugging what could be a stubborn stratus deck on the back side of the upper trof, especially in locations along/east of the MS River.
The large vertically stacked low pressure is slowly shifting east away from the area this afternoon. These showers are now moving southeast, reflecting that we are now on the western periphery of the upper low circulation. This trend should hold, with precipitation ending before dropping much below freezing, which should combine with the wind, to dry out road surfaces enough to prevent a flash freeze impact. Lows in the northwest should drop to the lower 20s with clearing before dawn, while the southeast sees clouds through daybreak, and lows in the upper 20s.
308 PM MST Sun Dec 1 2019 A transitory ridge of high pressure will remain overhead through this evening resulting in quiet weather across eastern Utah and western Colorado. Upper level flow will shift to the southwest tonight as the ridge slides east.
433 PM MST Sun Dec 1 2019 A transitory ridge of high pressure will remain overhead through this evening resulting in quiet weather across eastern Utah and western Colorado. Upper level flow will shift to the southwest tonight as the ridge slides east.
The combination of clearing skies and decreasing winds tonight will allow temperatures to drop into the low and mid 20s across the area by early tomorrow morning. Winds will gradually shift back to a southerly direction tomorrow as high pressure slides south of the area and lee cyclogenesis occurs to our west.
430 PM MST Sun Dec 1 2019 00Z TAF CYCLE VFR conditions along with light winds are expected for all terminals underneath a building upper-level ridge. A ridge of high pressure aloft will flatten tonight and tomorrow with dry westerly flow prevailing.
It is still rather cold across the region as temperatures range from the teens and 20s in western Montana and Lemhi County to the 40s in the lower Hells Canyon in central Idaho. So instead of making it up to 40 degrees, they may struggle to get above freezing.
Light snow mixed with rain in the lower elevations will impact the Sierra and Owens Valley through Monday evening.
Several inches of snow can be expected in the ridges.
320 PM MST Sun Dec 1 2019 Upper level analysis has ridging over the Four Corners region with large trof downstream across the Great Lakes region. At the surface, high pressure is located across the Northern Plains with a weak lee trof across central Montana and northeastern Wyoming. Upper level ridge will build into the Northern Plains overnight with mostly clear to partly cloudy skies and seasonable temperatures.
549 PM EST Sun Dec 1 2019 A mix of rain and snow showers will continue tonight into Monday morning as an upper level low moves through. Some slushy snow accums cannot be ruled out this evening/early overnight with little impact anticipated to roads as sfc temps likely stay above freezing into much of tonight.
429 PM MST Sun Dec 1 2019 Upper level analysis has ridging over the Four Corners region with large trof downstream across the Great Lakes region. At the surface, high pressure is located across the Northern Plains with a weak lee trof across central Montana and northeastern Wyoming. Upper level ridge will build into the Northern Plains overnight with mostly clear to partly cloudy skies and seasonable temperatures.