Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Cold front is still pushing through the state slowly bringing with it the cooler, drier airmass. /Issued 458 AM EDT Sat May 29 2021/ Surface cold front across northwest Georgia will continue to push southeastward across the area today. Lingering light rain showers are currently limited to parts of middle Georgia ahead of prefrontal trough and will continue to drift eastward through the remainder of the morning. Drier and cooler conditions will build initially into north Georgia today behind the front with breezy northwest winds and gradually clearing skies. High temperatures will run well below normal in north Georgia while Middle Georgia will still warm into the 80s ahead of the full impact of the cooler and drier airmass this afternoon.
Temperatures will approach record highs for the latter half of the upcoming week due to persistent high pressure over the region.
A weak but narrow upper level trough is passing through the Ohio Valley today pushing cooler, Canadian air into the region. This has resulted in far subseasonal temperatures, although dissipation of cloud cover have allowed some rebound with highs in the low to mid 60s. This low level system is vertically stacked, but weakens near the surface. By this evening, this upper level low will be east of Indiana, taking most of the cloud cover along with it. Expect lows to be similar to last night, in the low 40s for most of the region. This should be fairly weak, as north westerly flow will push warmer air aloft into the Midwest combating the pressure gains. The pattern is expected to begin to shift towards mid-week as a deepening low pressure system approaches from the southwest.
1022 AM CDT Sat May 29 2021 Sunny skies will develop today as high pressure builds into the region. Expect highs reaching the lower 60s this afternoon as an unseasonably cool air mass affects the region.
331 PM CDT Sat May 29 2021 Strato-cumulus have held on strong across most of the Missouri Ozarks through mid-afternoon as a 850 mb thermal trough slowly shifts southeast across the area. The one exception is the Highway 54 corridor where partial clearing is starting to take place. As we head into late this afternoon and early this evening, that thermal trough will continue to shift southeast. Models are in good agreement that upper level troughing will extend from the Upper Mississippi Valley through the central high Plains and into the southwestern U.
316 PM CDT Sat May 29 2021 With a cold front in our vicinity, we had a band of thunderstorms pop up suddenly and cause some flash flooding and small hail in the Lake Charles area.
348 PM EDT Sat May 29 2021 Short Term (Today through Sunday): High pressure will give way to an approaching cold front over the next 24 hours. A mid-level trough of low pressure will move into the region on Sunday which will allow for cooler temperatures aloft (500 mb temperatures drop towards -10 deg C around the lake region) which will allow for steeper lapse rates in the hail growth zone. The cold front will not be able to make it this far south in the short term.
The wind is the only aviation condition of note as high pressure builds into the region from Midwest and northern Great Lakes. Transitional pattern underway as anticyclonic vorticity advection ahead of an eastward propagating longwave ridge axis filling in behind the departing upper low now absorbed by the exiting southern stream trough. Other than notably dry conditions, rising heights will couple with warming thermal profiles reflected in a positively sloped maxT curve this week, initializing with highs in the low 60s this afternoon.
This will lead to the first chance for rain tonight, with the main forcing mechanism coming later this evening as the upper level trough comes swinging through.
Cooler air left behind will result in high temperatures being lower than previously forecast.
QPF of an additional inch is possible, but given how slow this low pressure system has moved, a storm could stall out over any area, resulting in locally higher amounts. Other than that, the precip is expected continue into the day tomorrow, and dissipate north to south by the evening as high pressure moves in behind the trough. The clouds will barr daytime heating during the day tomorrow and highs are only expected to be in the 60s across the region, with warmer values in the northern Sandhills as the precip dissipates and allows the area to heat.
Areas to the east of I-45 tomorrow will see easterly winds, partly cloudy skies, highs in the low-to-mid 80s, and dewpoints in a reasonably pleasant mid-60s. Areas to the west of I-45 will have southeast winds, mostly cloudy skies, and warmer temps in the mid- 80s due to this warm, Gulf moisture pushing inland.
The low levels remain pretty well saturated as evident by the widespread low clouds that continue to stream in from the northwest. CD Chattanooga Airport, TN 51 75 52 84 60 / 0 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 51 69 49 80 58 / 10 10 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 49 70 49 80 57 / 0 0 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 49 65 47 77 53 / 20 20 0 0 0.
Many valley locations of western Montana and higher valleys of Idaho have a good chance of frost, similar to this morning as temperatures drop into the low to mid 30s. Temperatures will gradually warm through mid week as high pressure ridging noses into the Northern Rockies with dry conditions.
Modest mid level ridging will drift over Texas in the short term, with an upstream mid level low dropping south over southern Arizona and northwest Mexico by Sunday night.
/Tonight through Saturday/ Cool conditions have continued today as an expansive area of Canadian high pressure maintains a firm grip over the region. Widespread sunshine has pushed temperatures warmer than yesterday, but are still holding in the upper 50s to low 60s as we head into the peak heating hours.
The models prog the upper trof to pass 21z-24z today, and after that, height rebounds and subsidence shoud strengthen. Lows will dip toward but fall just on the warm side of record levels tonight, settling in the lower to mid 40s for most locations.
The cold front is now well south of Central AL and dry northwesterly flow will make outside conditions feel quite comfortable. Skies will further clear overnight as mid-level ridging builds into the region. We'll have even more sunshine during the day as the clouds continue to clear which will allow for slightly warmer temperatures, but humidity will be low with highs in the 70s/lower 80s. 86 /Updated at 0100 PM CDT Sat May 29 2021/ Sunday Night through Saturday Dry and cool weather will begin the Memorial Day across the state with morning lows well down into the 50s statewide (and a few upper 40s in our northern/cooler spots).
Temperatures will be warmer tomorrow but still cooler than average working into the upper 60s/near 70 west and along I-65 with low/mid 60s in eastern KY.
Memorial Day will feature abundant sunshine with high temperatures reaching the lower 70s. Low level thermal trough in place amid sharp surface based inversion suggests cooler than guidance best route.
247 PM CDT Sat May 29 2021 Scattered light showers are expected through the rest of the afternoon across the region as a cold front begins to work its way into the area from the west. Weak instability looks to limit the chance for thunderstorms, but it isn't completely out of the question of an evening thunderstorm near the cold front in eastern ND and RRV between 6-9 PM. As the cold front moves eastward tonight, there remains the slight chance of scattered light rain showers to move east into Minnesota.
The low levels remain pretty well saturated as evident by the widespread low clouds that continue to stream in from the northwest. Garuckas Chattanooga Airport, TN 69 51 75 52 84 / 0 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 65 51 69 49 80 / 30 10 10 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 65 49 70 49 80 / 10 0 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 65 49 65 47 77 / 30 20 20 0 0.
Northerly winds will be gusty at times (15-20 kt range) through early this evening in the wake of a cold front that moved across the area last night and this morning. /DL/ Though the pressure trough and associated wind shift have already made it across the forecast area, the baroclinic zone from our passing cold front is still making its way southward through the area this morning, now approaching the Highway 84 corridor. /DL/ Prior discussion below: Today through Tonight: We're beginning to see a greater surge of drier and cooler air push southward through lower MS Valley region, and this trend will continue through the near term. Cirrus associated with a remnant MCS will be streaming across the forecast area today and this may help to filter the sunlight and keep temperatures a little cooler than would have been expected.
This afternoon, an upper trough visible on satellite imagery was pushing south from Canada into northeast Montana and northwest North Dakota. At the surface, a stalled cold front was draped southwest- northeast from Bowman to Rolette Counties, with extensive cloud cover along and south of the front. North of the front is mostly sunny skies and somewhat breezy northwest winds, with a cu field developing ahead of the upper trough base. Scattered showers and a few isolated thunderstorms are possible later this afternoon and into the evening in the northwest and north central as this trough base continues to move south. The upper trough will linger across the eastern part of the state, but as with the previous forecast, it looks like any showers and thunderstorms will stay east of the forecast area.
Large scale pattern at 850 mb shows a ridge with a cool airmass over the Great Lakes region, which extends southwest down across IA and toward OK. Farther aloft, at 500 mb, a trough extended from northern Saskatchewan down toward WY. Look for lows tonight from the lower 40s to near 50.
1152 AM EDT Sat May 29 2021 Breezy and warm today ahead of an approaching cold front, with a few thunderstorms this afternoon and this evening, some of the storms may be strong.
1250 PM CDT Sat May 29 2021 An unseasonably cool airmass was filtering into the region as high pressure settles into the western Great Lakes and upper Midwest. An upper trough was dropping southeast through the OH valley into the TN valley this afternoon and will be southeast of our forecast area before 06Z.
The cold front is now well south of Central AL and dry northwesterly flow will make outside conditions feel quite comfortable. Skies will further clear overnight as mid-level ridging builds into the region. We'll have even more sunshine during the day as the clouds continue to clear which will allow for slightly warmer temperatures, but humidity will be low with highs in the 70s/lower 80s.
1131 AM MDT Sat May 29 2021 Issued at MDT Sat May 29 2021 The trough continues to trek eastward across Montana this morning. The associated cold front got a nice push southward last evening by convection in Montana, and is currently stretching from between LND and RIW east toward CPR. The front will slow down its southward progress today as it crosses the Divide, with cooler temperatures across the state during the afternoon. As the front continues southward on Sunday, the cooler and slightly more moist air finishes entering the state. Better midlevel support remains farther to the south and east, so shower activity will be limited on Sunday to the higher elevations of the Winds and Big Horns, along with Natrona County.
1217 PM CDT Sat May 29 2021 Sunny skies will develop today as high pressure builds into the region. Expect highs reaching the lower 60s this afternoon as an unseasonably cool air mass affects the region.
Surface humidities remain in the lower teens/upper single digits so don't anticipate much, if any, precip reaching the ground for the valleys. Favored areas look to be from the northern San Juans northward, initially starting over the higher terrain with some convection drifting into adjacent valleys.
235 PM CDT Sat May 29 2021 (Issued 227 PM CDT Sat May 29 2021) Tonight through Sunday night: High pressure over the Western Great Lake Regions will continue tonight into Sunday. Overnight temps will be on the cooler side again with lows dipping into the upper 30s to low 40s under clear skies. These southerly winds will advect warmer temps into southern WI. However, a mid-level trough will begin to work its way into the Upper Midwest on Sunday. A few of the hi-res models hint that as swaths of mid-level vorticity swing through south central WI ahead of the main trough axis, it might be enough to produce some scattered showers in our area Sunday afternoon. This will cause an easterly wind shift and may keep areas around the lake a bit cooler.
129 PM EDT Sat May 29 2021 [Through 18Z Sunday] Cold front has pushed through the area bringing clearing skies and breezy northwest winds to the area for the afternoon. A cold front will make its way through, following the rain, shifting our winds to the northwest with speeds around 10 kts with gusts around 15kts, mainly north of I-10, calming down after sunset. Temperatures for Saturday will approach 90 degrees this afternoon but will cool way down to the upper 50s for our SE AL and SW GA counties and the low 60s for the FL Panhandle.
256 PM CDT Sat May 29 2021 It has been a chilly start to the holiday weekend as an upper level trough continues to move through the Mid-South this afternoon. Don't really expect clouds to really start clearing until later this evening when the upper trough moves east into Middle Tennessee. Weak upper ridging will also begin to occur behind the departing upper trough so expect a warming trend to occur over the course of the weekend.
353 PM CDT Sat May 29 2021 A weak cold front is currently moving through the area. The chances of convection rapidly diminish as the front moves offshore and high pressure starts to build in.
328 PM EDT Sat May 29 2021 Temps have warmed into the 60s and 70s behind the cold front in North Georgia including the metro with scattered fair weather cumulus that thin quickly to the south side of the metro. Ahead of the front in central Georgia, temps have soared into the lower to mid 80s with plenty of moisture hanging around.
327 PM CDT Sat May 29 2021 A mid level ridge was in place from the Great Lakes southward across Kansas and into the southern Plains this afternoon. An approaching mid level trough will bring an increase in high and mid level clouds this evening and overnight across northeast Kansas.
1234 PM EDT Sat May 29 2021 Slightly warmer conditions can be expected today with high temperatures ranging from the upper 50s to mid 60s.
107 PM PDT Sat May 29 2021 Our cooler than average Spring weather will persist through Sunday as onshore flow and a fairly deep marine layer prevail west of the mountains. Gusty late day and evening westerly winds will continue through the passes and into the deserts one more day, even as the high deserts begin to warm. A weak upper-level trough will drift SE over SoCal thrugh Sunday, maintaining a fairly deep marine layer and gusty onshore flow into the deserts at times. That trough will settle south into NW MX and cut off a weak upper low, which will turn our upper-level winds from the east, and return some higher clouds and humidity aloft.
249 PM EDT Sat May 29 2021 Synopsis/Discussion/Marine - Frost and Freeze Threat Tonight - Warmer for Sunday and Memorial Day, Some Clouds Moving In - Limited Rain Chances Mid to Late Week -- Frost and Freeze Threat Tonight -- It's been tough to shake the frost/freeze threat this spring. A different setup exists tonight (lower dew points and a more classic radiational cooling) but with similar temperatures expected, and a better shot at frost formation or localized freeze conditions with winds diminishing and high pressure moving in.
Near-term models show that precipitation will not arrive until late tonight ahead of upper level trough axis moving through the area.
At the surface, a cold front continues to push south across the region this afternoon will be nearing the coast soon and moving offshore over the Gulf late this afternoon and this evening. A drier and slightly cooler airmass will build into the region in the wake of the front with northwest to northerly low level flow in place late today through Sunday. For tonight, nearly 10 degrees cooler than last night in many locations, with lows ranging from the low to mid 50s along and north of Highway 84, and the upper 50s to lower 60s southward to the coast (with most of the low 60s along the immediate coastal areas).
At the same time, surface to 850mb flow will continue to funnel better moisture into the High Plains. Normal highs for this time of year are in the low 80s. Upper trough will be swinging across the Plains Tue night into Wed and will get the area back into northwest flow aloft for Wed into Thu. Broad area of upper ridging looks to setup over a large portion of the central CONUS for the end of the week into the weekend as a closed low passes over Baja. The lower cigs should hang around a bit longer before decreasing in coverage later this afternoon. A low pressure center over SE Colorado will continue to slide SE over night and on Sunday.
142 PM EDT Sat May 29 2021 High pressure will start to push away today as a weak frontal boundary located near Tallahassee will start to push south.
1139 AM MDT Sat May 29 2021 The mid-level trough moving through the northern Rockies early this morning drove a cold front across northwest Colorado and northeast Utah. Mid-level flow begins to split in the West as the northern Rockies trough continues eastward over the northern High Plains while a shallow trough moving inland deepens over central California this afternoon. Divergence aloft increases as the pattern evolves with the forecast area falling under the right entrance region of the jet moving through the departing system to the north, and the left exit region of the jet associated with the low forming to the west.
653 PM CDT Sat May 29 2021 A weak trough will sweep across the area during the short term forecast period, and bring showers and isolated thunderstorms tonight and Sunday. The activity will spread eastward overnight and Sunday, likely becoming more organized as the arrival of a mid-level trough supplies better forcing/moisture. The showers look to wane by mid-day Sunday, but there will be the potential for afternoon redevelopment from central into southwest MN on Sunday afternoon as the weak warm front bisects the area. Cloud cover and southerly flow will yield much warmer minimum temps overnight as compared to last night. Anticipate readings to range from the low/mid 70s in west central MN to low and mid 60s elsewhere.
714 PM EDT Sat May 29 2021 Aviation - Frost and Freeze Threat Tonight - Warmer for Sunday and Memorial Day, Some Clouds Moving In - Limited Rain Chances Mid to Late Week -- Frost and Freeze Threat Tonight -- It's been tough to shake the frost/freeze threat this spring. A different setup exists tonight (lower dew points and a more classic radiational cooling) but with similar temperatures expected, and a better shot at frost formation or localized freeze conditions with winds diminishing and high pressure moving in.
An upper trough is moving across Middle Tennessee this evening and will take the main band of moisture with it as it carries eastward. An upper trough is swinging across the region at present, and its passage will help us scatter out during the next several hours.
650 PM CDT Sat May 29 2021 (This evening through Sunday) After several days of being influenced by upper-level disturbances, West Central Texas is enjoying a reprieve from the active weather today, thanks to mid-level ridging. By tomorrow afternoon, an upper-level trough will dig in over Baja California, which will break down the ridge over west Texas.
All shortterm guidance shows this to be the end of the precipitation as the front continues to move through with cooler and drier air filtering behind it. /issued 316 PM CDT Sat May 29 2021/ With a cold front in our vicinity, we had a band of thunderstorms pop up suddenly and cause some flash flooding and small hail in the Lake Charles area.
A mid level ridge was in place from the Great Lakes southward across Kansas and into the southern Plains this afternoon. An approaching mid level trough will bring an increase in high and mid level clouds this evening and overnight across northeast Kansas.
/issued 316 PM CDT Sat May 29 2021/ With a cold front in our vicinity, we had a band of thunderstorms pop up suddenly and cause some flash flooding and small hail in the Lake Charles area.
648 PM CDT Sat May 29 2021 Strato-cumulus have held on strong across most of the Missouri Ozarks through mid-afternoon as a 850 mb thermal trough slowly shifts southeast across the area. The one exception is the Highway 54 corridor where partial clearing is starting to take place. As we head into late this afternoon and early this evening, that thermal trough will continue to shift southeast. Models are in good agreement that upper level troughing will extend from the Upper Mississippi Valley through the central high Plains and into the southwestern U.
/issued 256 PM CDT Sat May 29 2021/ It has been a chilly start to the holiday weekend as an upper level trough continues to move through the Mid-South this afternoon. Don't really expect clouds to really start clearing until later this evening when the upper trough moves east into Middle Tennessee. Weak upper ridging will also begin to occur behind the departing upper trough so expect a warming trend to occur over the course of the weekend.
634 PM CDT Sat May 29 2021 230 PM CDT High pressure dominates the weather pattern, with surface and upper air ridging just to our northwest, providing mostly clear skies with northeasterly winds. The gradient between the low to our east and high pressure is creating some gusty winds up to 30 mph, but will slowly weaken the rest of this afternoon into the evening as high pressure continues to builds in. With strong ridging throughout the atmosphere, we should see another mostly clear day on Sunday.
826 PM EDT Sat May 29 2021 Early evening satellite imagery and regional METAR observations are showing the approaching weak cold front moving through the Florida Panhandle. Overall, the forecast looks on track with a few showers developing overnight ahead of the cold front and shifting into the Tampa Bay area during the early morning hours. A weak cold front will push into the area overnight and wash out through Sunday, with a few showers possible over the coastal waters late tonight through Sunday morning. High pressure will setup north of the waters during the first half of the week, with generally easterly winds turning onshore near the coast each day with the afternoon sea breeze.
The models prog the upper trof to pass 21z-24z today, and after that, height rebounds and subsidence should strengthen. Lows will dip toward but fall just on the warm side of record levels tonight, settling in the lower to mid 40s for most locations.
Satellite imagery shows the upper level low kicking out to the northeast while the low level low is sliding south towards Baja. The models generally agree on the low- to mid-level cutoff low to set up a blocking pattern over northern Baja through the coming week drawing moisture north out of Mexico into New Mexico and eastern Arizona.
Temperatures in the island communities are in the upper 70s to the lower 80s and the dew point values are near 70F. The Florida Keys are in the southwestern periphery of a large high pressure system centered well east of Bermuda, resulting in light to gentle breezes across our region. The environmental conditions are not conducive for the development of showers, and the low temperatures are expected to remain in the upper 70s. From synopsis, the Florida Keys remain in the southwestern periphery of a large area of high pressure anchored east of Bermuda.
/Issued 328 PM EDT Sat May 29 2021/ Temps have warmed into the 60s and 70s behind the cold front in North Georgia including the metro with scattered fair weather cumulus that thin quickly to the south side of the metro. Ahead of the front in central Georgia, temps have soared into the lower to mid 80s with plenty of moisture hanging around.