Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
LATEST RADAR LOOP SHOWERS AN AREA OF LIGHT PRECIP ALONG AND NORTH OF A WARM FRONT. THE WARM FRONT AND ATTENDANT PRECIP WILL GRADUALLY LIFT NORTHWARD TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT TO OUR WEST WILL SLIDE THROUGH SE OREGON TUESDAY MORNING AND SW IDAHO TUESDAY AFTERNOON. BUT JUST ENOUGH TO WARRANT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SW IDAHO. INCOMING PACIFIC SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL ENHANCE PCPN ON THE SURFACE FRONTAL SYSTEM. LATE TONIGHT A WARM FRONT WILL EXTEND W-E FROM BAKER COUNTY INTO CENTRAL IDAHO. WITH A COLD FRONT FROM BAKER COUNTY SWWD TO NWRN NV. THE COLD FRONT AND SHOWERS WILL MOVE EWD INTO IDAHO ZONES TUESDAY MORNING. CLEARING FROM THE SW AND COOLER TUESDAY NIGHT.
PRESSURE GRADIENT REALLY TIGHTENS UP LATE TONIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. COOLER NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN STORE FOR KANSAS ON TUESDAY.
THERE WILL BE A LITTLE RAIN TUESDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH.
833 PM EDT MON MAR 16 2015 AVIATION A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT AND PUT AN END TO THE MILD WEATHER. SOME LIGHT RAIN WILL MOVE IN OVERNIGHT AND COULD END AS FLURRIES AFTER MIDNIGHT THEN MUCH COOLER WEATHER WILL SETTLE IN FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. ONLY FORECAST ISSUE IN THE NEAR TERM IS TIMING THE PRECIP ALONG THE COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT. FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS SWAY.
INCREASING MOISTURE HAS ALREADY STARTED TO OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY EWD.
1251 AM EDT TUE MAR 17 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT.
High pressure at the surface will extend from the Canadian Prairies SE across eastern MT and the Dakotas tonight while low pressure develops in the Great Basin, allowing surface winds to veer from NE to easterly and increase slightly overnight, especially at eastern terminals.
Minor hourly temp/dewpoint tweaks were just enough to warrant updating some of the higher-resolution products. Otherwise we're well on track for a mild night ahead of the cold front, with clouds and wind shift arriving around daybreak. Combination of NWS and KY Mesonet observations reveal temperatures in the lower to middle 70s. Tonight, a cold front will push into the region from the northwest. Tuesday will likely be a bit breezy in the afternoon in the wake of the cold front passage. By evening, most locations are expected to be in the upper 40s to the lower 50s. High pressure will build into the region Tuesday night resulting in mostly clear skies.
1000 AM CST Fri Jan 23 2015 Have updated the forecast to slow the clearing trends and lower the highs as a result. High temperatures will range from the upper 30s across the east where clouds will persist longest to the lower 40s along/west of I-55 where sunshine will prevail this afternoon. Mild and dry conditions will be on tap behind the departing system for Saturday with high temperatures topping out in the lower to middle 40s.
A COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING THE WEST COAST LATE IN THE FORECAST AND THERE COULD BE AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS NEAR KAPF SO PLACED VCSH AFT 06Z IN THEIR TAF. /ISSUED 338 AM EST FRI JAN 23 2015/ AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR NEW ORLEANS AT THIS HOUR, WILL CONTINUE ON A TREK THROUGH THE PANHANDLE AND SOUTHEASTERN US TODAY. WITH PRIMARY SHRTWV AND BASE OF LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH OVER SW TEXAS, COLD FRONT WILL ONLY GRADUALLY MOVE THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON.
SKIES WILL CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY AND REMAIN CLEAR THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE REGAINS CONTROL.
521 AM EST FRI JAN 23 2015 A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN TODAY AND CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY AS A LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING DOWN INTO EASTERN CANADA. THEN SNOW SHOWERS WILL MOVE IN ON SATURDAY DUE TO THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN CANADA. WARM AIR ADVECTION THAT RESULTS WILL HELP BRING EVEN WARMER AIR INTO THE REGION WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO EASTERN CANADA ON SATURDAY WILL HELP TO KEEP A DEVELOPING COASTAL STORM FAR ENOUGH SOUTH OF OUR AREA. IT LOOKS LIKE SOME LIGHT SNOW WILL GET INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF RUTLAND AND WINDSOR COUNTIES DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY BEFORE MOVING EAST SATURDAY NIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES DOWN FROM CANADA.
WHILE TEMPS HAD ALREADY CLIMBED ABOVE FREEZING IN SOME AREAS. AND ROAD AND AIR TEMPS CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE COOLER BUT STILL IN THE UPPER 20S TO MIDDLE 30S.
/ISSUED 416 AM CST FRI JAN 23 2015/ COLD CORE UPPER TROUGH IS WELL WEST OF THE AREA BUT IT SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE CWA THIS EVENING/TONIGHT. MOST OF THE ATMOSPHERE IS BELOW FREEZING WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE LOWEST 2000 FEET OR SO AND SFC TEMPS ARE STILL AROUND 40 DEGREES F. ANY SNOW THAT MAY BE FALLING WILL MOST LIKELY MELT IN THIS LOWEST LAYER PRIOR TO REACHING THE SFC. BUT WITH SFC TEMPERATURES REMAINING ABOVE FREEZING NO ACCUMULATIONS AND NO IMPACTS ARE ANTICIPATED. OVERNIGHT LOWS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-20 WILL LIKELY BE NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING.
601 AM EST FRI JAN 23 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY/LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKES SATURDAY.
948 AM CST FRI JAN 23 2015 ALLOWED THE PORTION OF THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO EXPIRE ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE FREEZING PRECIP HAS WELL SINCE ENDED AND REPORTS OF IMPROVING ROAD CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN RECEIVED. WHILE TEMPS HAD ALREADY CLIMBED ABOVE FREEZING IN SOME AREAS. AND ROAD AND AIR TEMPS CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE COOLER BUT STILL IN THE UPPER 20S TO MIDDLE 30S.
314 AM MST FRI JAN 23 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL DIVE SOUTH- SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TODAY AND INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER THAN YESTERDAY DUE TO A WARMER START AND A WARMER AIRMASS IN PLACE. EXPECT HIGHS TO MAINLY BE IN THE LOWER 40S OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO. WEAK RIDGING WILL REBUILD OVER THE AREA LATE TONIGHT BRINGING CLEARING SKIES LATE TONIGHT. MOVING INTO A PERIOD OF TRANQUIL WEATHER BEGINNING SATURDAY WITH A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MIGRATING ACROSS THE REGION.
330 AM PST FRI JAN 23 2015 HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER CALIFORNIA WILL BRING WARMER WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
501 AM CST Fri Jan 23 2015 An upper level trough is currently located across western Texas early this morning and will track east into the Gulf coast states by tonight. Warmer conditions will occur this weekend as highs warm into the 50 both afternoons.
436 AM CST FRI JAN 23 2015 THE UPPER LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR OUR PRECIPITATION EVENT WILL SWING THROUGH THE REGION TODAY. THE FROZEN HYDROMETEORS FULLY MELTED IN THE 2000FT LAYER ADJACENT TO THE GROUND THAT REMAINS ABOVE FREEZING. THE PRECIPITATION TODAY WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LARGE-SCALE LIFT APPROACHING WITH THE 500MB TROUGH. ANY SNOW WOULD POSE NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO TRAVEL AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING. RIDGING WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE GREAT BASIN.
/ISSUED 318 AM CST FRI JAN 23 2015/ UPPER LOW CURRENTLY SPINNING ACROSS W TX WILL EJECT NEARLY DUE E TODAY. MID LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL RISE SIGNIFICANTLY THROUGH THE WEEKEND IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING UPPER TROF.
612 AM EST FRI JAN 23 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY/LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKES SATURDAY.
RAIN IS FORECAST THROUGH TODAY AS A LOW PRESSURE AREA SCOOTS ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST AND REACHES EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA BY 03Z. AS COLDER AIR COMES IN ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW TONIGHT, THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE TO SNOW ACROSS THE MID STATE, WITH THE CHANGE-OVER LIKELY TO OCCUR AT CKV AROUND 02Z, AND AROUND 06Z AT BNA AND CSV.
922 AM EST FRI JAN 23 2015 A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN TODAY AND CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY AS A LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING DOWN INTO EASTERN CANADA. THEN SNOW SHOWERS WILL MOVE IN ON SATURDAY DUE TO THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN CANADA. WARM AIR ADVECTION THAT RESULTS WILL HELP BRING EVEN WARMER AIR INTO THE REGION WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO EASTERN CANADA ON SATURDAY WILL HELP TO KEEP A DEVELOPING COASTAL STORM FAR ENOUGH SOUTH OF OUR AREA. IT LOOKS LIKE SOME LIGHT SNOW WILL GET INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF RUTLAND AND WINDSOR COUNTIES DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY BEFORE MOVING EAST SATURDAY NIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES DOWN FROM CANADA.
SHORT TERM: (Through Late This Afternoon) A low pressure system moving through the southern CONUS will have very little effect on today's weather except for an increase in high level clouds across the southern CWA.
Aloft, a closed low will develop on Saturday off Baja California, before dropping south.
THE LACK OF VALLEY FOG IS DUE IN PART TO A DRYING OF THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE AIR MASS AND LARGELY DUE TO AN INCREASE IN MID LEVEL AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. VFR CEILINGS ARE PRESENT THIS MORNING AS THE WEAK SOUTHERN END OF A WARM FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF OUR AREA. A WARM FRONT WILL BRUSH PAST OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE WATERS TODAY WITH A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD OVER THE WATERS TONIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS AND RECORD BREAKING TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND.
629 AM EST FRI JAN 23 2015 A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE INTO TONIGHT WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW.
638 AM EST FRI JAN 23 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL BE DISPLACED AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY TODAY AND THEN SUBSEQUENTLY MOVES OFF TO THE EAST TONIGHT.
637 AM EST FRI JAN 23 2015 A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN TODAY AND CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY AS A LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING DOWN INTO EASTERN CANADA. THEN SNOW SHOWERS WILL MOVE IN ON SATURDAY DUE TO THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN CANADA. WARM AIR ADVECTION THAT RESULTS WILL HELP BRING EVEN WARMER AIR INTO THE REGION WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO EASTERN CANADA ON SATURDAY WILL HELP TO KEEP A DEVELOPING COASTAL STORM FAR ENOUGH SOUTH OF OUR AREA. IT LOOKS LIKE SOME LIGHT SNOW WILL GET INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF RUTLAND AND WINDSOR COUNTIES DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY BEFORE MOVING EAST SATURDAY NIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES DOWN FROM CANADA.
1004 AM EST FRI JAN 23 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL BE DISPLACED AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY TODAY AND THEN SUBSEQUENTLY MOVES OFF TO THE EAST TONIGHT.
948 AM EST FRI JAN 23 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY/LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKES SATURDAY.
A WARM FRONT WILL BRING RAIN TO WASHINGTON AND NORTHERN OREGON TODAY WHILE THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FRONT EXTENDS INTO OUR AREA.
314 AM MST FRI JAN 23 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL DIVE SOUTH- SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TODAY AND INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER THAN YESTERDAY DUE TO A WARMER START AND A WARMER AIRMASS IN PLACE. EXPECT HIGHS TO MAINLY BE IN THE LOWER 40S OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO. WEAK RIDGING WILL REBUILD OVER THE AREA LATE TONIGHT BRINGING CLEARING SKIES LATE TONIGHT. MOVING INTO A TRANQUIL PERIOD OF JANUARY THAW WEATHER BEGINNING SATURDAY WITH A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MIGRATING ACROSS THE REGION.
245 AM PST FRI JAN 23 2015 AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN OVER THE REGION WILL PROVIDE CLEARING CONDITIONS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND.
653 AM EST FRI JAN 23 2015 A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN TODAY AND CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY AS A LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING DOWN INTO EASTERN CANADA. THEN SNOW SHOWERS WILL MOVE IN ON SATURDAY DUE TO THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN CANADA. WARM AIR ADVECTION THAT RESULTS WILL HELP BRING EVEN WARMER AIR INTO THE REGION WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO EASTERN CANADA ON SATURDAY WILL HELP TO KEEP A DEVELOPING COASTAL STORM FAR ENOUGH SOUTH OF OUR AREA. IT LOOKS LIKE SOME LIGHT SNOW WILL GET INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF RUTLAND AND WINDSOR COUNTIES DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY BEFORE MOVING EAST SATURDAY NIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES DOWN FROM CANADA.
314 AM MST FRI JAN 23 2015 THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WEST WAS GETTING DEFORMED BY A SPLITTING PACIFIC TROUGH THAT WAS MOVING INLAND. SOME CLOUDS RETURN TO THE NORTH IN THE AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER BATCH OF MOISTURE TOPS THE RIDGE.
HIGH CLOUDS MOVING INTO NORTHERN NM WILL LIKELY LIMIT OR ELIMINATE BR/FZFG FORMATION FOR NORTHERN AND WESTERN TAF SITES AND STRENGTHENING LEE TROUGH LIKELY TO LIMIT FORMATION EAST OF CENTRAL MT CHAIN.
THE PASSING OF THE UPPER LOW THROUGH THIS AREA COULD BE MAKE SNOW RATES CAPABLE OF LOWERING THE TEMPERATURES BRIEFLY TO FREEZING. FREEZING TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE MAINLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 90.
415 AM CST Fri Jan 23 2015 Snow continues to move across the Permian Basin and the Trans Pecos this morning with temperatures near or below freezing. The upper trough that is over the region and contributing to the snow is expected to move over eastern TX this afternoon. A broad upper trough will be over the eastern conus and Upper Midwest with a closed low taking shape off the coast of Mexico south of California beginning on Saturday.
558 AM CST Fri Jan 23 2015 /12Z TAFS/ An upper level low will move across the area today, resulting in MVFR/IFR conditions and light snow or a mix of light rain and snow at the terminals through 16Z. /ISSUED 500 AM CST Fri Jan 23 2015/ (Today and Tonight) Latest water vapor imagery shows the upper low near Midland early this morning. With surface temperatures remaining above freezing, snow accumulations will be limited to mainly grassy surfaces as well as bridges and overpasses. Precipitation will end around noon across eastern and southeast counties as the upper low moves off to the east.
A STUBBORN 1030 MB RIDGE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC STATES IS SUPPRESSING A DEEP TROUGH IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE LOW LEVEL STRUCTURE OF THIS TROUGH WAS AMORPHOUS. AND A FEW MARINE OBSERVATIONS IN THE CENTRAL GULF ARE REPORTING NEAR GALE CONDITIONS IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THIS CLOSED LOW. AND BEGIN TO CLOCK AROUND TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION TODAY IN ADVANCE OF OUR NEXT COLD FRONT. ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THE LOW LEVELS COULD STILL SUPPORT INCREASING DENSE CLOUD COVER AND EVEN A FEW LOW TOPPED SHOWERS.
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD SCATTERED PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY. CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 44 35 46 33 / 100 70 20 0 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 42 34 45 32 / 100 90 40 10 OAK RIDGE, TN 42 35 44 33 / 100 90 30 10 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 42 35 42 28 / 100 90 70 10.
416 AM CST FRI JAN 23 2015 COLD CORE UPPER TROUGH IS WELL WEST OF THE AREA BUT IT SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE CWA THIS EVENING/TONIGHT. MOST OF THE ATMOSPHERE IS BELOW FREEZING WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE LOWEST 2000 FEET OR SO AND SFC TEMPS ARE STILL AROUND 40 DEGREES F. ANY SNOW THAT MAY BE FALLING WILL MOST LIKELY MELT IN THIS LOWEST LAYER PRIOR TO REACHING THE SFC. BUT WITH SFC TEMPERATURES REMAINING ABOVE FREEZING NO ACCUMULATIONS AND NO IMPACTS ARE ANTICIPATED. OVERNIGHT LOWS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-20 WILL LIKELY BE NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING.
TEMPERATURES RUNNING A LITTLE COOLER AND HAVE SLOWED ITS RISE FOR TODAY. THE PASSING OF THE UPPER LOW THROUGH THIS AREA COULD BE MAKE SNOW RATES CAPABLE OF LOWERING THE TEMPERATURES BRIEFLY TO FREEZING. FREEZING TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE MAINLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 90.
High temperatures will range from the upper 30s across the east where clouds will persist longest to the lower 40s along/west of I-55 where sunshine will prevail this afternoon. Mild and dry conditions will be on tap behind the departing system for Saturday with high temperatures topping out in the lower to middle 40s.
447 AM CST FRI JAN 23 2015 LATEST UPPER AIR ANALYSIS AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE POSITIVE TILT TROF NOW MOVING E OVER THE SRN PLAINS. BRISK NLY WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW HAS BROUGHT MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA. WITH TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 40S WHICH IS ABOUT 10-15 DEGREES COOLER THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY MORNING. AREAS OF LT RAIN AND DRIZZLE WILL PERSIST TODAY AS THE MAIN LOBE OF THE UPR TROF MOVES INTO THE AREA. RAIN CHCS WILL FINALLY TAPER OFF THIS EVENING AS THE UPR TROF AXIS CROSSES THE AREA. LOW TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABV FREEZING. BUT A FEW OF ISLTD RURAL LOCATIONS NEAR THE LAKES REGION OR ACRS CNTL LA COULD BRIEFLY SEE FREEZING TEMPS BY SATURDAY MORNING.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE STATE.
722 AM CST FRI JAN 23 2015 WITH PCPN EXITING THE FA CANCELED FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY ALTHOUGH UNTREATED ROADS/SIDEWALKS WILL STILL BE SLICK. TEMPERATURES RIGHT AROUND FREEZING WITH DOT INDICATING ROAD SURFACE TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING OVER SE ND. WILL BE SEEING VERY MILD START MOST AREAS AND WHILE COLUMN DOES COOL WE SHOULD STILL SEE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING. LACK OF SNOW COVER WILL ALLOW FOR SOME SLIGHT WARMING WITH MOST AREAS GETTING TO OR ABOVE FREEZING.
LOW WILL MOVE NE INTO CENTRAL GA BY 00Z FRI WITH WARM FRONT LIFTING INTO SE GA. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SE AND SOUTH AND INCREASE OVER THE WATERS AS WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO THE GA WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. TONIGHT WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE FURTHER AS COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE WATERS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
924 AM EST FRI JAN 23 2015 A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE INTO TONIGHT WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW.
FEEDING INTO BROAD RIDGING ALONG THE WEST COAST. STRONG WESTERLY FLOW WITH THIS SYSTEM ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS HAS TAPPED SOME OF THE "WARMER" AIR IN THE WESTERN CONUS. WITH A TONGUE OF WARMER AIR ALOFT NOW PRESSING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST/FAR WESTERN GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING. DESPITE AXIS OF WARMER AIR GETTING STRETCHED INTO NRN MICHIGAN TODAY. FORECAST THERMAL PROFILES ARE CERTAINLY COOLER THAN THEY WERE A FEW DAYS BACK. THE CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. MORE CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FREEZING DRIZZLE SATURDAY MORNING AS MOISTURE HOVERS NEAR OR JUST UNDER -10C.
1152 PM CDT Thu May 28 2020 The closed upper low over Arkansas is finally opening up and beginning to lift east northeast. A band of showers and thunderstorms was currently rotating down its backside across the area along a cold front. High pressure will settle over the area Friday night making for a clear and cool night across the region. Overall, lows will drop into the lower 50s, but some colder valley locations may see readings in the 40s by Saturday morning.
322 AM EDT Fri May 29 2020 Closed upper low lifting out of the southern plains across the mid- Mississippi Valley has begun opening up and merging with the larger, broad upper trough moving across the Great Lakes. Merged trough axis passes through the region today/tonight.
Cooler air mass will settle into the region overnight through Saturday night, with dry conditions favored. Upper level pattern to start the period begins with northwest flow aloft as a strong ridge is in place in the intermountain west. and a trof over Hudson Bay.
Showers will taper off by mid-evening as the upper trough gradually shifts east and a drier airmass begins to advect into the area overnight. A pattern change will occur following this front as the big upper low that had been dictating our weather for the last week will be gone and much drier air will move in behind the frontal passage. A big ridge will develop over Texas and leave our area under northwest flow aloft. The ridge will build more across the region by mid-week and the heat will return as highs reach back into the upper 80s and near 90 degrees.
Broad synoptic forcing for ascent is expected across the region today as the northern stream longwave trough lifts out of the Southeast through the Tennessee Valley. Within the WAA regime, widespread shower and thunderstorm activity is expected today, forced by the seabreezes and a decaying frontal boundary/trough. Lows should fall into the lower 70s.
This Evening-Tonight: N-NNW flow aloft will prevail over the region -- on the NE periphery of an amplifying upper level ridge over the Desert Southwest/Intermountain West. With NW flow aloft and southerly low-level flow on the eastern periphery of a developing lee trough, isolated convection cannot be ruled out in Colorado and adjacent KS border counties during the late afternoon and evening hours -- though confidence remains very low with regard to whether or not convection will develop.
Clearing skies will prevail overnight, with forecast lows dipping into the 50s for most as Canadian high pressure oozes south across Mid-America.
/issued 344 AM CDT Fri May 29 2020/ (Today and Tonight) A dry forecast is in store today as an upper level ridge begins to build in from the west.
High temperatures today should range from the lower 80s to the lower 90s, with overnight lows mainly in the 60s.
650 AM EDT Fri May 29 2020 Unsettled conditions expected into the weekend as an upper trough approaches from the west.
Model solutions show fair agreement in having weak ridging over the state as high pressure remains anchored over the western Atlantic, keeping SoFlo under a general weak SE flow today and Saturday. Meanwhile, a trough/low complex moving across the OH/TN valley and migrating towards the eastern seaboard will send a weak frontal boundary southward, reaching northern Florida during the weekend.
As we approach daybreak, a pronounced upper level trough and associated sfc cold front extending from Michigan to Oklahoma will begin migrating towards the Ohio Valley.
Even though models are indicating that larger-scale forcing will be limited today under the upper level ridge, showers and some isolated thunderstorms across southwest Montana are expected as the atmosphere destabilizes during the afternoon and early evening hours today.
808 AM EDT Fri May 29 2020 Unsettled conditions expected into the weekend as an upper trough approaches from the west.
734 AM EDT Fri May 29 2020 Severe storms are possible this afternoon with the passage of a cold front. After sunrise an upper-level trough and its associated cold front are expected to be in the vicinity of Indiana. Once the trough and cold front become in phase with each other, severe storms are anticipated to develop and continue into the evening. By midnight, showers and storms will exit to our east as the cold front moves through central PA. High pressure building over the Great Lakes will return quiet, dry weather Saturday evening.
High pressure will settle in tonight and tomorrow so VFR expected for the rest of the TAF period. /issued 321 AM CDT Fri May 29 2020/ Short Term [Today and Saturday] This morning's water vapor satellite imagery shows the upper level trough remains centered over the Mississippi River Valley. At the surface, a weak cold front will progress southward through the day. Given that upper level support for ascent should be decreasing as the trough axis shifts east of the region, convection will likely not be as widespread as it has been the past several days. This will result in drier and warmer conditions for most of the CWA although an isolated shower or thunderstorm will be possible across southeastern Acadiana during the afternoon hours.
The conv is also being enhanced by relatively higher CAPE values (2500-4500 J/KG) indicated by LAPS data over the lower RGV and just offshore of the lower TX coastline. Expect these values to gradually diminish as the cold front sags southwards over the next several hours. The interaction of the old outflow boundary with the cold front and the lingering CAPE will allow conv to keep firing at least throughout the morning hours. Will include a mention of locally heavy rainfall in the forecast for today, but am not ready to post any Flash Flood Watch as expect the conv to weaken later today into tonight as the cold front moves south of the Rio Grande. The old cold front will then push back northwards on Sat and Sat Night which will likely result in some lingering conv chcs near the river.