Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
116 PM EST Wed Dec 22 2021 Colder weather will prevail Wednesday and Thursday in wake of a cold front. Warmer weather will return for the start of the weekend with rain likely for Christmas. The cold front has moved through western PA now through noon. The assisted lift by the terrain may still squeeze a good tenth or two of snowfall across the higher terrain. The main impact will be gusty wind, magnitude of which may be sufficient for some minor tree damage and power outage potential in the higher elevations. Temperatures will remain in the low to mid 30s with strong CAA behind the front. Building high pressure will alleviate the windy conditions this evening, but cold and dry advection will result in overnight lows around 20 degrees in most locations.
234 PM EST Wed Dec 22 2021 Dry high pressure into the end of the week with an overall warming trend.
223 PM EST Wed Dec 22 2021 High pressure will build into the region on Thursday. An upper trof crosses the area tonight as dry sfc hipres continues to work in from the NW. This high will bring a cP airmas mix and along with lowering winds outside the mtns, minTs will drop below freezing over most locales. Surface dewpoints rebound a bit and even with efficient mixing, expect the lower RH values arnd 30 percent with weakening winds.
Surface ridging will build into the southern Appalachians the next 24-36 hours with dry conditions and slight below normal temperatures. Chattanooga Airport, TN 50 28 57 37 62 / 0 0 0 0 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 47 25 55 37 61 / 0 0 0 0 10 Oak Ridge, TN 48 25 53 36 58 / 0 0 0 0 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 45 22 52 32 57 / 0 0 0 0 10.
Aloft, broad ridging remains in place across the western CONUS with broad troughing across the eastern CONUS. WAA wil also prevent temperatures from falling too much across the southwest, where overnight lows in the low 20s are expected (5-10 degrees northeast).
The return of southerly surface level flow will serve to keep us warmer than the previous few nights, with lows only dropping into the upper 30s across our northeastern zones and upper 40s across deep east Texas. Highs Thursday afternoon will be a good 10 degrees warmer than today, maxing out in the lower 60s north to mid 70s south. Opted to trend ~1-2 degrees warmer than the NBM solution, factoring in MAV12/MEX12 guidance, as well as what looks to be substantial southerly flow pushing in unseasonably warm flow off the Gulf of Mexico.
High pressure will settle over the area tonight and then shift to our east on Thursday. With the high shifting to our east over the Mid Atlantic on Thursday, the low level flow will become southerly and thus expecting a much warmer day. Afternoon high temps will be in the low to mid 50s.
With high pressure building in across the region, mostly clear and dry conditions will persist for several days into the near future. Given the clear and dry conditions with light winds tonight we can anticipate radiational cooling to bring the temps down to near or at freezing across most of the region. Although, it may be possible for some areas to be below freezing for a few hours before sunrise, specifically across SE Alabama and SW Georgia. Expect overnight lows generally in the low to mid 30s with daytime highs in the low to mid 60s.
1048 AM EST Wed Dec 22 2021 A comfortable morning across the Florida Keys, with moderate northwest breezes, temperatures in the lower 70s, and dewpoints in the upper 50s to near 60. Breezes will continue to trend downwards over the next several days as high pressure moves into the eastern United States then southwards into Florida.
One thing of note is that the low temperature for Christmas morning looks quite warm.
/issued 1028 AM CST Wed Dec 22 2021/ High pressure will continue to build into the Mid-South today. /issued 253 AM CST Wed Dec 22 2021/ Surface analysis this morning places a cold front from the Eastern Great Lakes back through the Ohio Valley and back into the Lower Mississippi Valley. A ridge of high pressure will build in behind the dry cold front this morning. Short term models indicate the mid-level flow will become nearly zonal by Christmas Eve with temperatures moderating into the lower 70s.
One remaining question is how warm the region will get on Thursday under upper ridging with good mixing aloft. There's some indication that winds won't pick up until Thursday night as a more southerly shift takes place ahead of a low pressure system coming out of Montana. When the period opens, the upper flow pattern highlights troughiness along the west coast/western CONUS.
208 PM EST Wed Dec 22 2021 Deep upper-level troughing extends southward from the eastern Great Lakes, over the eastern seaboard and into the Gulf of Mexico. Farther to the west, ridging extends northward through the Four Corners region. Cooler and drier air is being filtered into the region on a NW wind flow between the trough and ridge. On the surface, the area of low pressure and cold front that moved through the area yesterday continues to pull away from Florida in the western Atlantic. High pressure is building into the southeast U. behind this front and will advect some cooler and drier air over the Florida peninsula through the end of the week. The upper trough moves into the central Atlantic by the end of the week.
A cooler morning across South Florida. Cooler and drier air continue to filter down the Florida peninsula this morning behind the cold front that moved through yesterday. Latest GOES mid-level water vapor imagery reveals a plume of dry air filtering in over South Florida in the wake of a passing upper trough and attendant downstream frontal cyclone. The warmer, muggy conditions experienced the past few days will quickly transition in more pleasant, cooler weather. Temperatures this morning may reach as low as the mid 50s over the interior and lower 60s along the coast, while maximum temperatures reach the lower to mid 70s. The coldest temperatures in relation to the recent cold front will preside Wednesday night/Thursday morning, as minimum temperatures over the interior dip into the low/mid 40s over the interior, and low/mid 50s for metro/coastal locations.
Although it is not expected to be widespread, there will be a brief window of opportunity for the development of patchy freezing fog between 08-13Z, but this should mainly be confined to locations near large bodies of water. Winds aloft will begin to back to the west-northwest tomorrow, as a deamplifying longwave trough spreads further eastward into the western North Atlantic and a low amplitude ridge begins to shift eastward across the Great Plains. In the low-levels, we expect south- southwesterly flow to strengthen by late morning, as the transitory ridge begins to shift southeastward off the coast of SC/GA. The low-level south-southwesterly flow regime is predicted to persist and even increase through the remainder of the short term period, as the pressure gradient contracts between the high to our southeast and a cold front tracking southeastward through the northern Plains.
Surface ridging will build into the southern Appalachians the next 24-36 hours with dry conditions and slight below normal temperatures.
The cold front has moved through western PA now through noon. The assisted lift by the terrain may still squeeze a good tenth or two of snowfall across the higher terrain. The main impact will be gusty wind, magnitude of which may be sufficient for some minor tree damage and power outage potential in the higher elevations. Temperatures will remain in the low to mid 30s with strong CAA behind the front. Building high pressure will alleviate the windy conditions this evening, but cold and dry advection will result in overnight lows around 20 degrees in most locations.
Dry northwest flow aloft will prevail across the region today, between a longwave trough encompassing much of eastern North America and a low amplitude ridge over the western CONUS. Based on the magnitude of low-level cold advection and current trends in temperatures, we have lowered highs just a bit across the entire forecast area, with some locations in the higher terrain of northeast AL/southern TN only reaching the lower 40s. Lows should drop into the mid/upper 20s, with locations near large bodies of water a bit warmer in the lower 30s. Despite the clouds, higher heights and a moderating airmass will make for even warmer lows Thu night, ranging in the mid 30s over NE AL to mid 40s NW AL.
1035 AM CST Wed Dec 22 2021 Dry northwest flow aloft will prevail across the region today, between a longwave trough encompassing much of eastern North America and a low amplitude ridge over the western CONUS. Based on the magnitude of low-level cold advection and current trends in temperatures, we have lowered highs just a bit across the entire forecast area, with some locations in the higher terrain of northeast AL/southern TN only reaching the lower 40s. Lows should drop into the mid/upper 20s, with locations near large bodies of water a bit warmer in the lower 30s. Despite the clouds, higher heights and a moderating airmass will make for even warmer lows Thu night, ranging in the mid 30s over NE AL to mid 40s NW AL.
/Updated at 1124 AM CST Wed Dec 22 2021/ High pressure over the Gulf will keep flow from the north over Alabama through the day. with dewpoints lowering into the low to mid 20's by the evening. several degrees warmer than Wednesday.
304 PM CST Wed Dec 22 2021 With the ridge and high pressure building in, the next few days are expected to be pleasant.
Clear skies and a dry cold airmass over the forecast area this evening as high pressure shifts southeast to become overhead by early Thursday morning. TD Chattanooga Airport, TN 28 56 37 62 54 / 0 0 0 0 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 26 55 37 61 52 / 0 0 0 0 10 Oak Ridge, TN 25 53 36 58 52 / 0 0 0 0 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 21 52 32 57 44 / 0 0 0 0 20.
As the ridge builds over South Texas, a gradual warmup is expected. Therefore, low temperatures tonight ranging from the lower to upper 50s are expected to warm into the lower to upper 60s by tomorrow night. High temperatures tomorrow are expected to be a few degrees warmer than today ranging from the mid 70s to lower 80s.
/issued 205 PM CST Wed Dec 22 2021/ SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday Night): A mid-level trough will continue to move off the east coast of the US through the period as high pressure builds across the region. Thursday highs will top out in the low to mid 80s away from the coast with lows Thursday night in the 60s expected across the CWA. Southeasterly winds will pick up slightly, especially along the coast, on Thursday due to an increasing pressure gradient as low pressure forms across the Central Plains.
This evening and into tonight, that disturbance clears the region eastward, leaving partly cloudy skies and warming temperatures, thanks to a weak but broad ridge of slightly higher and warmer pressure from our south. Beginning Thursday evening, an approaching cold low pressure trough from the Canadian Rockies will introduce another chance of snow to the area, as temperatures quickly drop back down below normal. Our entire larger region will be under the influence of a cold core low pressure system from Canada through the last week of the year. A brief warm front this afternoon through tomorrow, will erode away the shallow cold layer at the surface and raise temperatures above normal through Thursday. Next chances for precipitation will arrive late Thursday with another cold front.
534 PM CST Wed Dec 22 2021 An upper ridge sneaking across the desert southwest, and this will be part of the focus for a period of warm weather through the end of the week as it translates over the southern plains. Areas under cloud cover will struggle to get out of the 50s, whereas areas with more sunshine may peak in the low to mid 60s.
355 PM CST Wed Dec 22 2021 Modest upper level ridging will translate from the Rockies across the central portions of the country through Thursday. Meanwhile deep troughing will extend from western Canada southward along the west coast through CA. In fact, boundary layer remains mixed tonight and expect lows to remain near the freezing mark in higher exposed elevations like the Sandhills. The warm air aloft will have no trouble mixing to the surface and highs into the lower 60s seem likely across central through southwest Nebraska with mid to upper 50s elsewhere. Upper level troughing will persist through the weekend across the western CONUS.
310 PM CST Wed Dec 22 2021 High pressure remains over the Mid-South this afternoon. Winds will quickly turn around to the south on Thursday as the high shifts east. Confidence in the forecast dwindles after Thursday as some of the models show the low clouds with the potential for drizzle or light warm air advection showers to continue Thursday Night through at least Christmas day. The next question with the forecast is with a cold front that is expected to move into Northeast Arkansas around sunset Christmas Day.
Light snow chance will continue through the early evening for the I-80 corridor and portions of the ridges with upsloping, but no accumulation beyond an isolated dusting is expected. Gusty winds continue across the ridges late this afternoon, but have gradually slacked after peaking earlier in the afternoon. Gusty winds will continue to diminish through the evening hours as high pressure begins to build.
717 PM EST Wed Dec 22 2021 High pressure will allow for dry conditions tonight into Thursday. With cloud cover and warmer air in place, overnight low temperatures will be a little warmer in the 30s to around 40.
Though, building heights and partly cloudy skies will help to keep the area warmer than we have seen in the past few days. A stout subtropical ridge will gradually shift east from the SE Pacific into the Gulf of Mexico over the course of the weekend.
921 PM EST Wed Dec 22 2021 Widely scattered light showers and sprinkles have continued to stream across the Gulf waters across parts of the Lower Keys and into the Lower Straits of Florida during the evening.
519 PM CST Wed Dec 22 2021 Modest upper level ridging will translate from the Rockies across the central portions of the country through Thursday. Meanwhile deep troughing will extend from western Canada southward along the west coast through CA. In fact, boundary layer remains mixed tonight and expect lows to remain near the freezing mark in higher exposed elevations like the Sandhills. The warm air aloft will have no trouble mixing to the surface and highs into the lower 60s seem likely across central through southwest Nebraska with mid to upper 50s elsewhere. Upper level troughing will persist through the weekend across the western CONUS.
Warming conditions, with some areas reaching the 20s, will moderate temperatures overnight in the lower teens and upper single digits. As the system exits to the east, dry air entrained behind the system may cause the last of the snow to switch to freezing rain or drizzle. But freezing rain is expected to occur just as the precipitation is ending, and little to no ice accumulations are expected.
726 PM EST Wed Dec 22 2021 Dry high pressure will dominate the region through the end of the week along with a warming trend.
Otherwise, wind speeds have decreased as expected and tomorrow will be another sunny day with slightly warmer temperatures than today.
302 PM CST Wed Dec 22 2021 Tonight through tomorrow (Thursday): Tonight: Remnant sfc boundary will wash out overnight & sfc ridging will keep dry & quiet weather across the region overnight. Thurs: As strong atmospheric river & upper jet stream spreads across Cascades/Sierra Nevada into the Intermountain W, Plains & E into the Great Lakes & Ohio Valley, broad area of sfc pressure falls will develop across the N Rockies down through the lower Plains-ArkLaTex. /DC/ The forecast period begins with a deep high pressure ridge continuing to build from the west that is creating weak flow at the surface. This will impact the southeastern region with warmer and drier conditions.
Though, building heights and partly cloudy skies will help to keep the area warmer than we have seen in the past few days. With warmer than normal temperatures, these higher winds should be able to mix down, resulting in high-end breezy conditions at the surface. A stout subtropical ridge will gradually shift east from the SE Pacific into the Gulf of Mexico over the course of the weekend.
745 PM EST Wed Dec 22 2021 Chilly high pressure will dominate our weather through Thursday night.
Guidance continues to trend a few degrees cooler than previous runs, with area temperatures dropping faster than expected as well, so lowered overnight lows across the area a few degrees. The rest of the interior will be in the lower-40s, with coastal locations in the mid to upper- 40s.
/22/ Tonight through tomorrow (Thursday): Tonight: Remnant sfc boundary will wash out overnight & sfc ridging will keep dry & quiet weather across the region overnight. Thurs: As strong atmospheric river & upper jet stream spreads across Cascades/Sierra Nevada into the Intermountain W, Plains & E into the Great Lakes & Ohio Valley, broad area of sfc pressure falls will develop across the N Rockies down through the lower Plains-ArkLaTex. /DC/ The forecast period begins with a deep high pressure ridge continuing to build from the west that is creating weak flow at the surface. This will impact the southeastern region with warmer and drier conditions.
/issued 310 PM CST Wed Dec 22 2021/ High pressure remains over the Mid-South this afternoon. Winds will quickly turn around to the south on Thursday as the high shifts east. Confidence in the forecast dwindles after Thursday as some of the models show the low clouds with the potential for drizzle or light warm air advection showers to continue Thursday Night through at least Christmas day. The next question with the forecast is with a cold front that is expected to move into Northeast Arkansas around sunset Christmas Day.
510 PM CST Wed Dec 22 2021 Updated aviation section for 00z taf issuance After seasonable temperatures today and tonight, a warm front will lift up across our area tonight, bringing a quick return of south winds.
The region remains in a broad troughing, with impulses and strong jet sweeping overhead.
518 PM CST Wed Dec 22 2021 A trough a day is keeping Santa away.
707 PM EST Wed Dec 22 2021 High pressure will build into the region on Thursday. We're still seeing some lower-end gusts across the higher terrain, but these should diminish later tonight. This high will bring a cP airmass to the area and along with lowering winds outside the mtns, temperatures should drop below freezing over most locations.
629 PM EST Wed Dec 22 2021 Aviation --Light Snow on Thursday, Mainly North of I-96-- Isentropic lift north of an approaching warm front combined with jet exit region support brings some light snow for Thursday.
Temps will likely warm into the lower to middle 40s for Thu afternoon. Weak sfc ridging and aloft is then expected for Thu evening followed by another increase in clouds late.
This is thanks to a very dry and cold airmass that is making its way south as trough of low pressure remains over the area. For now though, high pressure will build through the rest of the week keeping the Sunshine State rain free.
Can't rule out a little light frost in the normally cooler spots close to sunrise. Some of the high-res short fused models carry low visibilities, but others do not, split about half and half. /issued 304 PM CST Wed Dec 22 2021/ With the ridge and high pressure building in, the next few days are expected to be pleasant.
1052 PM CST Wed Dec 22 2021 Modest upper level ridging will translate from the Rockies across the central portions of the country through Thursday. Meanwhile deep troughing will extend from western Canada southward along the west coast through CA. In fact, boundary layer remains mixed tonight and expect lows to remain near the freezing mark in higher exposed elevations like the Sandhills. The warm air aloft will have no trouble mixing to the surface and highs into the lower 60s seem likely across central through southwest Nebraska with mid to upper 50s elsewhere. Upper level troughing will persist through the weekend across the western CONUS.
906 PM CST Wed Dec 22 2021 A warming trend with increasing cloud cover can be expected Thursday into Friday as breezy southerly winds bring warmer air into the region. Highs Thursday should be in the low to mid 50s.
143 AM EST Thu Dec 23 2021 Dry high pressure will dominate the region through the end of the week along with a warming trend.
The low level jet will increase from the southwest tonight which will bring gusty winds over some higher terrain areas overnight, with a few of the highest peaks possibly seeing wind gusts above 30 mph at times.
Elsewhere, dry and quiet conditions are expected under high pressure. Dry weather is expected to continue into Thursday evening, mid and upper-level clouds will build after sunset as trough approaches western Ohio. The trough, and its associated sfc warm front, will cross into the region Friday. Forest/Venango/Clarion County may see a rain/snow mix early Friday morning, precip type will depend on how far north the warm front advances. Ridging Friday afternoon will reduce precip chances, some areas may see light drizzle. Heavier amounts should stay mainly focus near Lake Erie, along the warm front.
1122 PM CST Wed Dec 22 2021 An upper ridge sneaking across the desert southwest, and this will be part of the focus for a period of warm weather through the end of the week as it translates over the southern plains. Areas under cloud cover will struggle to get out of the 50s, whereas areas with more sunshine may peak in the low to mid 60s. A second and potentially stronger cyclone will quickly skate across Kansas Friday afternoon inducing gusty southwesterly winds.
Dewpoints over west TN prevailed in the lower and middle 20s. /issued 310 PM CST Wed Dec 22 2021/ High pressure remains over the Mid-South this afternoon. Winds will quickly turn around to the south on Thursday as the high shifts east. Confidence in the forecast dwindles after Thursday as some of the models show the low clouds with the potential for drizzle or light warm air advection showers to continue Thursday Night through at least Christmas day. The next question with the forecast is with a cold front that is expected to move into Northeast Arkansas around sunset Christmas Day.
Warming conditions, with some areas reaching the 20s, will moderate temperatures overnight in the lower teens and upper single digits. As the system exits to the east, dry air entrained behind the system may cause the last of the snow to switch to freezing rain or drizzle. But freezing rain is expected to occur just as the precipitation is ending, and little to no ice accumulations are expected. As warm air advection continues aloft in the area throughout Thursday, a considerable nose of warm air develops in the soundings, suggesting that freezing rain mixed with snow may be the primary precipitation type for Friday morning.
1008 PM EST Wed Dec 22 2021 High pressure will allow for dry conditions tonight into Thursday. High pressure centered over the lower Ohio and Tennessee Valleys will drift to the east overnight. With mostly clear skies and light winds, temperatures have already dropped into the lower to mid 20s across much of the CWA. With cloud cover and warmer air in place, overnight low temperatures will be a little warmer in the 30s to around 40. With a warm front lifting through the region early on Friday, with scattered showers developing with the warm sector pushing into the area.
300 AM EST Thu Dec 23 2021 Chilly high pressure will settle across central NC today and tonight.
343 AM EST Thu Dec 23 2021 Dry high pressure will dominate the region through the end of the week along with a warming trend. Christmas Day will be breezy as a low pressure system passes to our north.