Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
939 AM EDT Sun Jul 9 2017 High pressure will build across the region through tonight and then shift to the mid Atlantic coast Monday. An area of weak low pressure will move over the western Great Lakes on Monday causing a warm front to develop over the local area.
On Monday, the upper ridge will elongate west to east across much of the continent and is expected to remain in place most of the week.
1003 AM EDT Sun Jul 9 2017 High pressure today. High pressure will bring quiet weather today and tonight. Winds will turn to the south tonight as the high drifts east. The upper trof moves east away from the area loosen its influence on the local weather.
1018 AM EDT Sun Jul 9 2017 High pressure and a dry airmass will provide abundant sunshine today. Conditions will begin to change tonight as high pressure moves east and moisture and forcing increase along a developing frontal boundary.
Temperatures will be at or slightly warmer than what we saw yesterday with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Winds will remain light as the surface anticyclone moves slowly across the Mid-South, with wind directions gradually becoming more southerly this evening as the high shifts east.
1155 AM EDT Sun Jul 9 2017 High pressure will build into the area today bringing dry and sunny weather.
939 AM EDT Sun Jul 9 2017 High pressure will build into the region today. The high will move offshore during the early part of the week, while a cold front slowly sags southward during the middle of the week. High pressure is continuing its trek eastward from the Ohio Valley this morning. Previous discussion: There is not much going on weather-wise today, as high pressure builds over the forecast area. There has been good run-to-run consistency that high temperatures will be in the lower to mid 80s.
/issued 322 AM CDT Sun Jul 9 2017/ Temperatures continue to warm as the upper ridge over the Four Corners expands east. The upper ridge flattens, but continues to expand east into the Plains early this week. This system transitions into an inverted trough by midweek and continues west.
Given the high instability, there could be an isolated strong to severe storm this afternoon. At the mid and upper levels, the trough over the eastern U.
A strong upper ridge will be centered near the Four Corners region, as northwesterly flow aloft continues across the Central Plains. A weak cold front across Montana and North Dakota early this morning will sag southward today into southwestern South Dakota by late afternoon. The weak cold front is forecast to sag into north central Nebraska. The weak cold front will sag south to near highway 2 and 91 overnight. Lows from the lower to mid 60s northwest to the upper 60s southeast.
A weak upper level trough will move into the area late tonight and Monday morning, deepening the marine layer. A weak upper level trough will move through Western Washington tonight and Monday. At the lower levels onshore flow will increase. Highs on Monday will be about 5 degrees cooler than today, in the 60s to lower 70s.
733 AM EDT Sun Jul 9 2017 High pressure over the Ohio Valley builds east through Monday, passing to the south of the region.
Nearly all CAMs indicate the bulk of this precipitation will remain just east of the CWA, but will need to monitor for any backbuilding into the ridge later in the evening. Slightly cooler air may just arrive by daybreak to meet our forecast lows. Synoptically, the large upper-level ridge will begin to flatten over the central U. This will keep the area mostly dry through the day, and slightly cooler, but seasonal, than Sunday.
Upper trough continues down the eastern seaboard with weakness in upper ridging over the region while a weak upper low spins in E Gulf. Bermuda high pressure ridge axis over the C FL Peninsula today to slide northward Monday.
Will keep the highest pcpn chances in this area, with more scattered activity elsewhere. Some of the high resolution models develop it over the southern FA and some are further south and east.
Otherwise, drier air mixing down today should allow for warmer temps that what occurred Sat /particularly across the Coastal Plains/. Another pleasant night /by July standards/ is expected tonight as continued drier air aloft allows temps for inland areas to cool into the low to mid 70s. H85 temps Mon are prog to be a degree or two warmer than today. and as such sfc temps should also be slightly warmer than today /especially across the Brush Country/.
As advertised, the valley fog burned off rapidly under the high-strong July sun and we have a bright sunny day in progress. Any convective elements on Monday appear to be very weakly forced and instability driven with perhaps a lee-trough providing somewhat of a focus over the Southeast Piedmont.
An inland trough and offshore high pressure pattern returns midweek. A cold front will approach from the northwest late in the week. Lows range from the lower 70s inland to upper 70s Outer Banks. A gradual drying and warming trend expected as we move into the mid week timeframe as the upper trough lift north and heights rise. The upper trough deepens across the region toward the end of the week with a cold front approaching the area bringing greater coverage of showers and thunderstorms.
The high pressure ridge will sit overhead and prevent much chance for storms from forming.
North of this boundary, the cold front is quickly moving southward this morning and will stall very close to the northern portion of the area. The cold front will move north by tonight and Monday and we will remain in the hot muggy diurnal sh/ts typical during the summer.
Temperatures this morning are a bit cooler than yesterday with near 70 degrees noted in cntrl Louisiana and the lakes region of southeast Texas and mid to upper 70s down toward the beaches. Temperatures will rise through the morning hours reaching the lower 90s.
As the associated mid-level inverted trough moves further inland today, ridging aloft builds into the area from the north (with the 00Z NAM even developing a smaller-scale H5 high center over the CWA on Monday).
High pressure is in control today with subsidence aloft and a capping inversion around 750mb. Expect abundant sunshine with just a few afternoon cumulus, mainly around the higher terrain. Chattanooga Airport, TN 90 66 91 70 / 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 87 63 89 68 / 0 0 10 0 Oak Ridge, TN 88 62 89 68 / 0 0 10 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 85 59 87 66 / 0 0 10 0.
HIgh pressure across Indiana and Ohio will provide a Mostly Sunny and warm conclusion to the weekend. The high will settle southeast of Indiana this afternoon. allowing warmer and more humid air to arrive in the state tonight. Surface analysis shows broad high pressure in place across Illinois/Indiana/Ohio. associated with the high pressure system. Quiet weather appears in store for this evening as the models continue to suggest the high pressure system to our south will dominate our weather. Warm air advection on the back side of the high and good moisture looks to return to Central Indiana also.
Otherwise, high temperatures ahead of convection to climb into the lower 90s.
1159 AM CDT Sun Jul 9 2017 WV imagery was showing a large upper level high pressure dome encompassing the western half of the CONUS along with a broad downstream trof situated over the eastern CONUS. broad high pressure was in control over the Plains.
Early this morning an upper level high was located over the southern Rockies while an upper trough was over new England with northwest flow across the Plains. For today and tonight the upper high will build out into the into Nebraska and Kansas as an upper trough moves on shore from the eastern Pacific. A thermal ridge will spread out into the Central Plains today and tonight. Highs across the rest of the area will range from the lower to mid 90s. Lows tonight will be warm with readings in the low to mid 70s.
910 AM EDT Sun Jul 9 2017 A weak cold front will approach from the north today and will stall over northern New England tonight. The front will gradually lift north as a warm front Monday through Monday night.
Highs today will be near 90 degrees, with Monday highs a degree or two warmer.
high pressure returns for warmer weather. The reason is mostly that the big upper ridge has shrunk in place over Utah.
647 AM CDT Sun Jul 9 2017 WV imagery was showing a large upper level high pressure dome encompassing the western half of the CONUS along with a broad downstream trof situated over the eastern CONUS. broad high pressure was in control over the Plains.
Hot again today but cooler Monday as north Pacific upper trough comes inland. Monsoon moisture will be gradually pushed east and out of our CWA by Monday but the trough will bring a slight chance of thunderstorms to northern-most mountains Monday. The upper ridge that's brought record heat to the area will gradually flatten in response to energy moving in from the Pacific. Temperatures are a couple of degrees cooler today, with a more noticeable downward trend on Monday.
1027 AM MDT Sun Jul 9 2017 Late morning GOES-16 water vapor loop shows a stout upper ridge centered over the Intermountain West. The 14Z HRRR composite reflectivity shows convective initiation over the high terrain between 18Z and 20Z, with scattered coverage spreading east/southeast across the plains after 21Z. Added gusty winds with the high- based convection, which will produce only light rainfall.
Current surface analysis shows low pressure over far northeast MT, with a cool front extending southwestward to southwest MT and southern ID. Upper level analysis shows high pressure centered over southeast UT, with northwest flow across the Northern Plains. The cold front will then settle slowly south into the area during the afternoon and evening, switching winds to the north and northwest. Isolated thunderstorms could develop in spots late today, with the best chance likely over far south central SD as the trough moves across that area and possibly over the Black Hills. Slightly cooler air will build into the area tonight and Monday, but temps will still remain above average for the upcoming week. Ridge will flatten out over the region as the upper high weakens over the Southern Plains.
A low chance of rain over western areas today and Monday, then mainly a heat of the day driven convection pattern as the upper high pressure ridge builds into the area. Tonight the low chance of convection may hold over far western AR, but coverage is forecast to remain low. Monday the upper high pressure ridge builds a bit more into the region, lower the overall chance of rain in AR.
The low-level high pressure ridge axis will be near central/south-central Florida during this period. MOS high temps are mostly in the lower 90s due to the rather high POPs and associated cloud cover.
Satellite imagery currently shows cloudiness over the eastern Midlands with surface obs showing the weak cold front stretched across the central Midlands and CSRA. The weak cold front will move very slowly southward through early afternoon then stall across the southern Midlands and CSRA.
This is due to moisture in the lower parts of the atmosphere, which should decrease the potential for damaging winds ever so slightly. High pressure has moved very little in the past few days and remains centered just west of the four corners, where it will remain into the coming week. The high pressure ridge will flatten and gradually shift east through the week but no major pattern changes are anticipated as we remain in a favorable monsoon pattern. Storms are expected to develop first along the rim country and White Mountains, and will spread into the lower elevations this evening.
Latest models keep the upper high centered north the area which will maintain a deep easterly flow and fetch of moisture.
1116 AM CDT Sun Jul 9 2017 Temperatures are already in the low to mid 90s at many stations along and west of the Missouri River. An area of low pressure currently over northwest North Dakota will track southeast today. A cold front, currently over Montana, will slide southward across the CWA later this afternoon. Thunderstorms will be possible along the cold front late this afternoon through this evening. Cooler temperatures are expected on Monday with highs in the mid 80s, to the mid 90s.
Ridge axis south of the region so S/SW winds 10-15 knots will continue today and tonight, then weak ridge axis slowly lifts northward through the week and winds becomes SE early in the week and possibly from the East by the mid-late week time frame.
The stalled frontal boundary remains just to our south as low level ridging slides across the northern portions of Central AL.
Lows will fall into the lower to mid 60s making for a rather cool start to the next work week. The upper trough that has sat over much of the eastern CONUS the last few days will start to weaken and lift northward on Monday, as upper ridging builds in from the west.
As of 10AM, temperatures have already reached the low to mid 80s throughout the region. Otherwise, while northwest flow aloft aloft prevails across the region, high pressure at the surface will wedge its way into the region from the northeast today and tonight. A few showers and storms will be possible during the heat of the afternoon over locales mainly along and south of the Highway 84 corridor, but quiet conditions will prevail across much of the forecast area during the period. Highs will remain rather toasty as they climb into the lower 90s areawide this afternoon. Lows tonight will be a tad cooler compared to previous nights, as they cool into the upper 60s and lower 70s.
An upper level trough moving into western Canada will begin to flatten the top of the western U. upper level ridge today. The ridge will be further flattened tonight. There still is an outside chance of a storm developing over the higher terrain across the southern portion of Wallowa county above this low level cap. The upper trough will also gradually increase the onshore flow west of the Cascades resulting in winds increasing through the Cascade gaps today. High temps will remain above seasonal, though they will be a bit cooler than yesterday, especially in the central Gorge.
Strong high pressure aloft will remain centered across Utah today, then gradually weakening early in the week.
The positioning of this feature continues to generate southeast flow in the lower levels, as indicated on this mornings 12Z MFL sounding.
538 AM MDT Sun Jul 9 2017 12Z TAF CYCLE Another round of SHRA/TSRA will develop near or after 18Z over the high terrain then move south or southeast over the lower elevations during the late afternoon and evening.
High pressure will provide a comfortable day with slightly below normal temperatures.
Otherwise, while northwest flow aloft aloft prevails across the region, high pressure at the surface will wedge its way into the region from the northeast today and tonight. A few showers and storms will be possible during the heat of the afternoon over locales mainly along and south of the Highway 84 corridor, but quiet conditions will prevail across much of the forecast area during the period. Highs will remain rather toasty as they climb into the lower 90s areawide this afternoon. Lows tonight will be a tad cooler compared to previous nights, as they cool into the upper 60s and lower 70s.
627 AM CDT Sun Jul 9 2017 An area of low pressure currently over northwest North Dakota will track southeast today. A cold front, currently over Montana, will slide southward across the CWA later this afternoon. Thunderstorms will be possible along the cold front late this afternoon through this evening. Cooler temperatures are expected on Monday with highs in the mid 80s, to the mid 90s.
515 AM MDT Sun Jul 9 2017 Current surface analysis shows low pressure over far northeast MT, with a cool front extending southwestward to southwest MT and southern ID. Upper level analysis shows high pressure centered over southeast UT, with northwest flow across the Northern Plains. The cold front will then settle slowly south into the area during the afternoon and evening, switching winds to the north and northwest. Isolated thunderstorms could develop in spots late today, with the best chance likely over far south central SD as the trough moves across that area and possibly over the Black Hills. Slightly cooler air will build into the area tonight and Monday, but temps will still remain above average for the upcoming week. Ridge will flatten out over the region as the upper high weakens over the Southern Plains.
The Subtropical Ridge remains centered over the Four Corners region with a trough over the eastern states to the mid south.
610 AM CDT Sun Jul 9 2017 A large amplitude ridge with a 4 standard deviation in the 500mb heights will start to move to the east over the area in the next 24 hours. The high pressure currently over MO will shift to the SE creating a pressure gradient of southerly winds from the Gulf of Mexico up into southern Minnesota.
A retrograding mid/upper ridge may allow for moderating temperatures and increasing chances for precipitation as we move through the latter portion of the week.
Update: High pressure and warm to hot temperatures again today. we'll call it "less hot" side of the boundary with highs in the lower 90s.
This will change with a cold front forecast to move through the area on Sunday. One reason for the low confidence is the cold front on Sunday, that should help to create some lift in the region starting Sunday morning.
a cold front has moved thru the area. expecting wind gusts potential to remain at 40-50 mph potential into early evening w/ skies clearing out an surface ridging beginning to work in from the WNW. Nice day on tap for the region after a cold morning w/ high pressure in control. Looking for daytime highs to reach into the lower and mid 60s.
750 PM EDT Sat Oct 14 2017 High pressure remains anchored from north Georgia up to the mid Atlantic region. A light easterly flow around the High has helped maintain a large area of low clouds across much of north & central Georgia.
This highly anomalous warm and moist environment is already yielding 1500 to 2500 J/kg SBCAPE. The rest of the forecast looks dry with temperatures climbing into the low to middle 70s, which is about 5 degrees above normal for this time of year. The actual cold front will move through later this evening and might bring a secondary round of thunderstorms, though this second line will likely be more scattered in nature.
Thunderstorms beginning to develop along a cold front across central Oklahoma. Frontal passage to be too late to have much of an effect on overnight low temperatures but cold air advection should be sufficient to allow for high temperatures on Sunday to average in the upper 60s across portions of southeast Oklahoma and the lower to mid 80s elsewhere. Patchy mvfr fog possible at kmlu and klfk and brief mvfr clouds possible prefrontal, however, most of the low clouds and precip will be along and just postfrontal.
Beyond the current TAF period, a cold front will sweep through the RGV terminals on Sunday evening, bringing breezy to briefly gusty north winds and scattered showers. Sunday, winds will turn out of the north during the day ahead of an approaching cold front.
Dry, gusty offshore winds bringing critical fire weather conditions to the North Bay and elsewhere through the day as upper trough is ejected from the region.
With temps in the low 50s and dropping into the 40s, these strong winds are going to make it feel quite cool and raw. Highs are expected to be in the low 60s. This will bring a cold front through the area and will be the next best chance for precipitation.
Cold advection behind the departing surface system will bring cooler high temperatures on Sunday. Sunday Night Through Saturday The upper trough that is forecast to move through Sunday night will probably produce lake effect clouds across northern Wisconsin with clearing across central Wisconsin. Lows will be in the low to mid 30s.
1025 PM EDT Sat Oct 14 2017 A cold front will push through the region later Sunday.
Winds will pick up after 15z as a cold front approaches from the west.
1056 PM MDT Sat Oct 14 2017 Water vapor imagery shows an broad upper trough centered across the central third of the CONUS with the main axis now crossing the CWA.
The warm up is in progress as the combination of the upper level ridge nudging into the area, and the thermal trough deepening along the coast, brings offshore flow all the way across the east side.
Temperatures were in the low to mid 80s, except for 70s across the far southeast and parts of the Plateau where extensive cloud cover persisted. Isolated showers had developed in the warmer areas. A persistent south wind, along with increasing humidity will bring warmer temperatures tonight than the past few nights.
Utilized the higher-res guidance (NAM, CMC, NCEP WRFs) for winds through Sunday. Models suggest that a slowly progressive pattern will prevail with the ern mid/upper level trough giving way to ridging by the end of the week.
Cold front passing through Tulsa at this time. Gusty northerly wind expected Sunday as high pressure builds into the Srn Plains. High pressure building east into the Plains in the wake of the system is forcing a strong cold front in our direction. At 7 PM, the cold front stretched from far NW OK across southern KS just to the south of Wichita and then up into west central MO.
A strong cold front will swing through later tonight into Sunday morning with gusty winds and more rain showers.
Proton Previous Discussion: As the low pressure system continues to lift out and away from our region, higher pressures quickly approach from the west as a prolonged period of NW flow aloft sets up over the area beginning tonight.
Relative humidity values have increased behind a cold front across the Plains. Cold front crossing the region this afternoon. An impressive cold front was crossing the fcst area. Cold front will continue to drop south and should be down to the NM border around 5 pm. Although Red Flag conditions have technically ceased behind the front (RH > 15%), have decided to keep the Red Flag warning in effect due to the strong gusty, albeit cooler, northerly winds. withe clear skies, light winds and relatively dry air over the plains temps should fall to below freezing most area, withe lows expected to be in the upper 20s to around 30F most of plains. Have issued a freeze warning for those areas which have not reached freezing this Autumn season.
More clouds move in on Sunday with temperatures a few degrees warmer.
/issued 927 PM CDT Sat Oct 14 2017/ A cold front currently stretches from Des Moines, Iowa to Wichita, Kansas. A cold front currently extends from northern Indiana through northern Missouri and into eastern Colorado. This cold front will approach the forecast area tonight with scattered thunderstorms expected to develop ahead of the front. The cold front will move through on Sunday with showers and some isolated thunderstorms expected. Temperatures will be much cooler on Sunday with highs ranging from the upper 60s to lower 80s. The cold front will be south of the region by Sunday night with rain ending over southeast sections of the forecast area during the evening hours.
Approach of a quick moving sfc cold front should bring VCSH 15/14Z NW-15/20Z SE to terminal locations with overcast 5 KFT ceilings.
1150 PM CDT Sat Oct 14 2017 Updated aviation section for 06z taf issuance The main forecast challenge for the short term is the passage of the strong cold front Sunday and its associated weather.
709 PM CDT Sat Oct 14 2017 Updated for 00Z aviation discussion 00Z TAF discussion: Aside of the potential for early morning fog/low stratus mainly in the HBG area, VFR conditions will prevail through most of Sunday before a cold front pushes southeast across the area. The inverted trough feature moving up from the Gulf should push clouds into the area late tonight and maybe some rain into far southeast zones around mid morning. /07/ Sunday Night through Saturday: As the cold front moves through the forecast area Sunday night, surface pressure rises of around 5 mb per 6 hours are being indicated by forecast models.