Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Today Through Tuesday Night Warm and muggy conditions have returned to the area early this morning as a warm front slowly lifts north across the state. though maybe a deg or 2 warmer. There are some hints in the high-res near-term guidance that some isolated precip may develop Tue morning.
Most of the lower level clouds have burned off outside of the central valley and near the Smoky mountains based on latest satellite imagery. Chattanooga Airport, TN 79 57 85 59 87 / 0 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 78 54 82 55 84 / 0 0 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 79 54 84 56 85 / 0 0 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 76 47 81 50 82 / 0 0 0 0 0.
Closed upper-level low will continue moving offshore to the western Atlantic Ocean allowing the anomalous ridge axis to expand and intensify through the Ohio Valley. Unseasonably warm temperatures are expected for several days as a nearly stationary closed low off Cape Hatteras blocks the pattern, resulting in an amplifying upper ridge over the Mississippi Valley. The warmest temperatures will remain to our west as the ridge axis sets up roughly from the Ozarks northeastward to Chicago.
1111 PM CDT Sun May 8 2022 (This evening through Monday) Hot, summertime weather will continue into Monday as an anomalously strong low-level thermal ridge remains in place across the Southern Plains. The highest temperatures will be west of the dryline due to the drier air mass and higher temperatures just above the surface.
316 AM EDT Mon May 9 2022 Cooler than normal temperatures expected early this week although some moderation expected with an upper low offshore.
253 AM MDT Mon May 9 2022 08z surface analysis had low near KTIF with warm front to KICR and then to northeast SD. Tuesday, upper low drops into upper trough over CWA with upper ridge from TX to the Great Lakes.
205 AM EDT Mon May 9 2022 Low pressure will linger near the coast today, prolonging the well below normal temperatures. Below normal temperatures and dry weather are expected for much of the upcoming week as the upper low stalls offshore, but rainfall chances will return late in the week. Very little change in the big picture pattern from Monday, with the stacked low offshore of Hatteras, a tight pres gradient and breezy conditions on the west side of the low, and occasional surges of moisture rotating around the west side of the low resulting in intervals of clouds and sunshine across our eastern zones. Mainly clear skies across our western zones in the subsidence region west of the low.
The first will push another weak cold front through part of the area Monday night into Tuesday morning shifting winds to the north with a slight increase in cloudiness.
1147 PM CDT Sun May 8 2022 Summary: The upper level trough that brought heavy rains to the Central Plains this past week has now moved off the U. S East Coast and is expected to retrograde westward creating a blocking pattern. This will leave much of the Central Plains under upper level ridging this week with well above normal highs expected.
/NEW/ /Through Tonight/ With rather stagnant upper ridging still in place over the south/central US, today will almost be a repeat of the past couple of days: morning stratus, a hot and humid afternoon, and meager convective chances along the dryline. We'll only carry 10-20% PoPs near the Highway 281 corridor during peak heating, but with CAMs signaling even lower convective chances than the past couple of days, convective potential seems pretty slim. Another warm and humid night will follow with lows only falling into the low/mid 70s by Tuesday morning.
Upper ridging was shifting into the MS Valley this evening with a few high clouds. Temperatures are beginning to drop into the lower to middle 60s after sunset with calm or light southeast flow. An upper-level ridge of high pressure will build into the area early this week, resulting in continued warm/dry weather. The combination of ample sunshine and southerly flow will result in a pronounced warming trend as high temperatures warm into the low to mid 80s on Monday and the mid to upper 80s on Tuesday.
This pattern will favor fairly breezy northeast surface flow today and Tuesday under dry and stable conditions, with slightly cooler morning lows.
An upper level blocking pattern appears to be setting up over the CONUS, with the aformentioned low the eastern portion of the Omega style block, with strong ridging building over the central lower-48. Because of the system off shore keeping a northern flow going well our east, a colder east to warmer west trend should continue regarding daily temperature forecasts. Highs later this afternoon under mostly sunny skies should be warmer than they were yesterday, ranging from the mid/upper 70s over our eastern areas to the lower 80s NW Alabama. Cooler east and milder west temperature trends should continue tonight, with lows ranging from the lower 50s over NE AL to lower 60s NW AL. This will continue Tuesday with even warmer temperatures, with highs from the lower 80s east to upper 80s west.
329 AM EDT Mon May 9 2022 Dry conditions and warming temperatures are ahead this week for the North Country as high pressure strengthens over the region.
By this afternoon, the low will be north of the region already with strong and gusty west to southwest winds developing. The period starts off with mid-level ridging building across the Northern Plains as a trof settles into the southwest CONUS. The highly amplified pattern will lead to a decent thermal ridge aloft advecting north across much of the CWA for mid to late week with H7 temps pushing 12-14C.
In the upper levels, southwest flow continues with a building ridge through the southeastern United States up through the Great Lakes region. Surface winds will gradually decrease during the evening and overnight, with the dryline delineating between lows in the low to mid 60s west of the dryline and lows in the 70s east of the dryline.
A trailing trough, extending from low over the western Atlantic will move south across area this afternoon and evening, followed by high pressure building to the north. The trough is expected to pass through dry, but a few sprinkles can not be ruled out as the convergent line at the leading edge of the trough moves south across area waters. However, additional cloud cover will pass through with the trough.
132 AM EDT Mon May 9 2022 High pressure yields dry and warm weather for most of the week. High pressure dominates as an omega blocking pattern sets in. Temperatures will even reach near freezing in the highest elevations in the northeast mountains with the potential for some very patchy frost although should be fairly isolated and will also be in areas where the growing season has not yet started.
415 AM EDT Mon May 9 2022 High pressure will remain established across the Mid-Atlantic into North Carolina through much of the week, maintaining generally dry conditions.
125 AM EDT Mon May 9 2022 Aviation -Warming Trend to Continue The mid to upper level ridge over the Great Lakes region strengthens into Tuesday.
South southeasterly breezy winds 20-30 mph will become west southwest through the day, with high temps soaring into the mid 80s to lower 90s, but still about 5-6 degrees cooler than daytime records at Lincoln and Omaha, but certainly a day that many will want to turn on the their AC. That frontal boundary then lifts northward as a warm front Tuesday night.
/issued 326 AM CDT Mon May 9 2022/ Strengthening upper ridge centered over the Mid-South this morning. Upper ridge will continue to strengthen though the middle of the week as an omega block develops over the CONUS. Expect record or near record highs in the lower 90s with lows in the 60s to around 70. By the end of the week the upper low off the SE Atlantic coast will begin to retrograde as the upper ridge starts to break down. The upper low will lift north north and weaken as the pattern becomes more progressive once again. High temperatures will be back into the 80s by the weekend as rain chances begin to increase as a upper level trough drops into the Mid-MS valley along with a weak cold front.
512 AM MDT Mon May 9 2022 08z surface analysis had low near KTIF with warm front to KICR and then to northeast SD. Tuesday, upper low drops into upper trough over CWA with upper ridge from TX to the Great Lakes.
601 AM EDT Mon May 9 2022 High pressure yields dry and warm weather for most of the week. High pressure dominates as an omega blocking pattern sets in. Temperatures will even reach near freezing in the highest elevations in the northeast mountains with the potential for some very patchy frost although should be fairly isolated and will also be in areas where the growing season has not yet started.
Dry and warmer weather returns late this week. Current temperatures are chilly ranging from the 20s in the mountains to the 40s across the Central Valley (around 5-15 degrees cooler compared to 24 hours ago). Cool and unsettled weather with scattered showers/thunderstorms and occasional high elevation snowfall will continue across interior NorCal today and Tuesday as the upper trough moves overhead and closes off. Depending on the amount of deep convection that develops today, travel impacts may redevelop across the higher Sierra passes where several inches of snowfall accumulation will be possible.
617 AM CDT Mon May 9 2022 Water vapor imagery shows a broad upper trough extending from the Pacific Northwest into the Central Rockies with an impulse tracking over ND/SD. A more amplified trough is expected to start digging over central/southern CA on Wed and will track into the Central Great Basin by Wed night. Upper trough is expected to go negative tilt and approach the Northern Plains by Thu afternoon.
These have kept temperatures a little cooler than were originally expected but this cloud deck will erode through the early afternoon. Closed upper-level low will continue moving offshore to the western Atlantic Ocean allowing the anomalous ridge axis to expand and intensify through the Ohio Valley. Unseasonably warm temperatures are expected for several days as a nearly stationary closed low off Cape Hatteras blocks the pattern, resulting in an amplifying upper ridge over the Mississippi Valley. The warmest temperatures will remain to our west as the ridge axis sets up roughly from the Ozarks northeastward to Chicago.
755 AM EDT Mon May 9 2022 It is a really beautiful start to the day with mostly sunnies skies, courtesy of an upper-level ridge building to the west. This pattern will favor fairly breezy northeast surface flow today and Tuesday under dry and stable conditions, with slightly cooler morning lows.
Impetus for the shift will be strengthening downslope west-northwest winds drying the lower atmosphere west of a Hysham to Fort Smith line. Expect some instability showers to develop in the afternoon over the higher terrain.
Rinse and repeat yesterdays forecast with ridging still in complete control of the area. The only main feature to even talk about is a large upper level low meandering south off the Mid- Atlantic coast which will become a player in the longer ranges. Otherwise, the ridge is not going anywhere. As moisture slowly increases, expect low temperatures to increase as well with lows west of I-65 likely in the mid to upper 60s and lows east of I-65 in the low 60s Monday night.
SHORT TERM (Today through Tuesday): 500mb ridge across northeast Mexico and south Texas will continue to provide subsidence across deep south Texas today through Tuesday. the combination of the winds and swells offshore the lower Texas coast will provide a high risk of rip currents along the lower Texas coast today through Tuesday.
Gusty southeast winds today, combined with lower humidity and warmer temperatures, will result in an increased risk for fire danger.
Very cold temperatures are being observed this morning, with at-or-below freezing temperatures occurring in most valleys of western Montana and several valleys of north central Idaho. At the same time, the resident area of low pressure will continue to circulate around the Northern Rockies into the Pacific Northwest, causing showers to once again be present throughout the day. Even with cloud cover lingering overnight tonight, we expect another near-freezing night with a very cold morning to follow Tuesday morning.
651 AM EDT Mon May 9 2022 High pressure will remain established across the Mid-Atlantic into North Carolina through much of the week, maintaining generally dry conditions.
expect temperatures to drop a few degrees behind a weak cold front. although they will still be well above seasonal norms which are in the lower 70s for this time of year.
659 AM EDT Mon May 9 2022 Dry conditions and warmer temperature can be expected through most of the week. Sunny days, clear nights, and a warming trend in temperature can be expected through Tuesday as an upper ridge amplifies over the eastern CONUS.
503 AM EDT Mon May 9 2022 Cooler than normal temperatures will continue although some warming is expected through mid-week.
Efficient WAA and a building ridge aloft will contribute to anomalously warm conditions for much of this week. The going forecast has highs reaching the low to mid 90s for much of the forecast area this afternoon, including a high of 93 degrees in Topeka. Looking at 134 years worth of records, there have been 19 instances when Topeka had a high temperatures of 93 degrees or warmer on or before May 9th (about 14% of the years).
Southwest flow aloft will prevail across the area today, ahead of a deepening upper trough along the West Coast. The thermal ridge will be a bit weaker and a little farther west today, which will result in max temperatures 2 to 3 degrees cooler. Tonight will be mild again, with overnight lows mainly in the lower 70s.
The upper level ridge will amplify today bringing warm and dry conditions to the region. Chattanooga Airport, TN 80 57 85 60 87 / 0 0 0 0 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 80 55 83 56 84 / 0 0 0 0 10 Oak Ridge, TN 79 55 83 57 85 / 0 0 0 0 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 77 45 81 49 82 / 0 0 0 0 0.
605 AM EDT Mon May 9 2022 High pressure remains in control today with abnormally dry conditions and increasing southeasterly gradient wind. Temperatures will continue to warm this week as a ridge of high pressure strengthens over the region. Temperatures will edge into the lower 70s in most locations (away from the cooling influence of the Great Lakes) as this gusty winds ushers in slightly a slight warmer airmass than yesterday.
819 AM EDT Mon May 9 2022 High pressure will remain established across the Mid-Atlantic into North Carolina through much of the week, maintaining generally dry conditions.
South Texas will remain under a ridge sandwiched between two upper level low pressure systems, one off the east Atlantic coast and another over the Pacific NW. This pattern continues through Tuesday with the ridge axis extending all the way from the Great Lakes region to the Texas Coast, keeping dry and hot conditions intact. Mid to upper level high pressure shifts further north along the Mississippi Valley on Tuesday, allowing for flow aloft to shift more southeasterly instead of southwesterly.
Temperatures through midweek will average several degrees below normal, but a warming trend will commence late in the week with well above normal temperatures returning as high pressure builds across the Southwest.
619 AM CDT Mon May 9 2022 (Today and Tonight) The heat will continue to slowly build today, as the upper ridge strengthens to our east. Temperatures should be another degree or 2 warmer than Sundays highs, with a few spots pushing record highs for the date. Dewpoints have risen significantly over the past 24 hours, and readings in the lower 70s this afternoon will yield heat index values near 100 across parts of eastern OK.
Expect MVFR to IFR conditions to prevail across the RGV through 15Z before the low clouds lift and burn off with diurnal heating. VFR conditions will prevail through the rest of the morning into the afternoon as the 500mb ridge across northeast Mexico and south Texas continues to provide subsidence across deep south Texas today. /issued 402 AM CDT Mon May 9 2022/ SHORT TERM (Today through Tuesday): 500mb ridge across northeast Mexico and south Texas will continue to provide subsidence across deep south Texas today through Tuesday. the combination of the winds and swells offshore the lower Texas coast will provide a high risk of rip currents along the lower Texas coast today through Tuesday.
223 AM MST Mon May 9 2022 An expansive trough of low pressure will remain nearly stationary just to the northwest of our region through mid week providing a modest cooling trend and continued dry conditions.
Temperatures across the island chain are in the upper 70s with dewpoints in the lower 70s.
On the synoptic scale, a ridge axis is positioned over the Quad State region. Through the short term forecast period, this ridge axis stalls out in the area and the ridge builds, with 500 mb heights increasing through Tuesday night, then holding steady afterwards. Low pressure off the Atlantic coast stalls out the progress of this ridge while a trough digs further south near the Pacific coast. Clouds are moving across the Quad State at this time ahead of a warm frontal passage.
/22/ Today and Tonight: Warmer than normal temperatures and dry weather will continue through the period. Early morning surface analysis had a ridge along the Appalachians extending in the the eastern Gulf. Water vapor imagery/RAP analysis showed a mid and upper level ridge from the western Gulf extending northeast across the Great Lakes region. This increase in strength surface and aloft over our CWA will help temperatures top out from the mid 80s northeast to the lower 90s central and west today. Normal highs run in the lower 80s. The warmth will continue tonight as temperatures only bottom out from the lower 60s east to the lower 70s west.
736 AM EDT Mon May 9 2022 Dry conditions and warmer temperature can be expected through most of the week. Sunny days, clear nights, and a warming trend in temperature can be expected through Tuesday as an upper ridge amplifies over the eastern CONUS. Increasingly drier conditions and clear skies will allow for warmer temperatures each day.
1039 AM EDT Mon May 9 2022 Cooler than normal temperatures will continue although some warming is expected through mid-week.
Models continue to show strong subsidence behind the cold front as it becomes stationary across Colorado today. Kept the High Wind Warnings out for the southeast Wyoming zones and upgraded Goshen, Niobrara, and the northern Nebraska Panhandle. Believe the low to midlevel cloud cover will dissipate or lift northward by this time with good low level boundary layer mixing.
Effects of the upper ridge building over the region will start to move in today as high temperatures will be around 80 across the mid state. The strong upper trough will move off the east coast and linger in that area through the first half of the week before moving west over the SE CONUS.
This will result in rain chances lower than climatology today as the oncoming upper level ridge slides in from the north.
627 AM EDT Mon May 9 2022 Low pressure will linger near the coast today, prolonging the well below normal temperatures. Below normal temperatures and dry weather are expected for much of the upcoming week as the upper low stalls offshore, but rainfall chances will return late in the week. Very little change in the big picture pattern from Monday, with the stacked low offshore of Hatteras, a tight pres gradient and breezy conditions on the west side of the low, and occasional surges of moisture rotating around the west side of the low resulting in intervals of clouds and sunshine across our eastern zones. Mainly clear skies across our western zones in the subsidence region west of the low.
407 AM MDT Mon May 9 2022 MORNING DISCUSSION: Broad upper level trough continues to deepen over the West. A Colorado Low has begun to take shape and is forecasted to take a steep trajectory to the north northeast as it rides up the eastern edge of the trough. The highest rainfall amounts will be over the eastern and southern zones. The trough continues to deepen further south closing off into an upper level low today.
With high pressure overhead, calm winds and clear skies are expected. Upper level ridging continues to amplify across the central CONUS with a cutoff low situated off the Mid-Atlantic coast. Underneath the ridge, high pressure continues to dominate the sensible weather across much of the Southeast.
237 PM CDT Mon May 9 2022 An upper low located over Minnesota and North Dakota state line, that has brought precipiation to the region, continues to progress northeastward.
204 PM MDT Mon May 9 2022 Broad upper trough over the Pacific NW is allowing for some lift and thus clouds and scattered showers this morning that are lifting out to the N this afternoon.
An elongated upper level ridge extending from the western Gulf northeastward into the Great Lakes will remain in control on the local weather through the near- term. Current satellite imagery reveals the development of a sea-breeze with a decent cumulus field along the coast which will keep temperatures a little cooler at the beaches today where highs are expected to top out in the lower to mid 80s. Further inland, skies are mostly clear with highs expected to climb into the mid to upper 80s and perhaps the lower 90s over southeast Mississippi where the better moisture is currently located. By Tuesday, the upper ridge is expected to strengthen slightly which will increase the subsidence aloft and cause temperatures to be even warmer.
231 PM CDT Mon May 9 2022 Our warm up has commenced thanks to upper-level ridging building into the Midwest. With a few more hours of diurnal warming left, we are on track to see widespread values in the low to mid 80s, with portions of central Missouri seeing highs topping out around 90. Temperatures at 850 mb approaching 20 C tomorrow paired with deep mixing will support most locations seeing values right around 90 degrees for afternoon highs, with some locations seeing values in the low to mid 90s.
Overnight low temperatures are forecast to fall into the lower 70s. Upper- level ridge of high pressure firmly established across the region to generate near record high temperatures approaching the mid 90s in some places on Tuesday.
239 PM EDT Mon May 9 2022 High pressure will remain anchored in the northeast through much of the week, maintaining generally dry conditions.
133 PM EDT Mon May 9 2022 Calm quiescent weather today will last throughout much of this week as a building ridge of high pressure resides across the Great Lakes and into southeast Canada. A building ridge of high pressure aloft will place its axis overhead of the region today and Tuesday.
Expect summer-like conditions to carry on at least through the end of the week, as high pressure remains clamped over the northwestern Gulf region. At the surface, ridge to our east, onshore flow into Southeast Texas. At 700 mb? Pretty much the same, just with the ridge axis a little further to the west. At 500 mb? Ridge axis right over us. Houston's records are in the low to mid 90s, so they may be under threat tomorrow again as well, though at least College Station's records in the upper 90s seem safe? It's likely to be hot, but I don't think that hot. Our 850 temps remain in the same 18-21C range that we've been seeing, and the 500 mb ridge is in the 590-594 dm range.
1144 AM EDT Mon May 9 2022 High pressure will remain established across the Mid-Atlantic into North Carolina through much of the week, maintaining generally dry conditions.
The upper level ridge will amplify today bringing warm and dry conditions to the region. Upper level ridging will promote VFR conditions through the next 24 hours at CHA, TYS, and TRI. Diegan Chattanooga Airport, TN 57 85 60 87 59 / 0 0 0 10 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 55 83 56 84 56 / 0 0 0 10 0 Oak Ridge, TN 55 83 57 85 57 / 0 0 0 10 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 45 81 49 82 51 / 0 0 0 0 0.
Expect overnight low temperatures in the low to mid 70s.