Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
644 AM EST SUN JAN 31 2016 LOW PRESSURE OVER MISSOURI THIS MORNING WILL MOVE RAPIDLY NORTHEAST TO SOUTHERN QUEBEC BY MONDAY MORNING. WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 50S. AS THE LOW MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS OUR AREA. RAIN IS EXPECTED ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS COLD FRONT.
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS TO THE NORTHERN REACHES OF THE STATE NEAR THE UTAH BORDER THIS MORNING.
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 66 55 66 53 / 10 40 40 20 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 68 53 61 47 / 0 40 50 20 OAK RIDGE, TN 67 54 61 47 / 10 50 50 20 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 66 45 58 43 / 0 30 60 30.
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS THE COMBINATION OF HEATING LOSS AND THE PRESSURE TROUGH FROM AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. MONDAY WILL SEE THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT RETURN NORTH AS AS WARM FRONT.
507 AM CST SUN JAN 31 2016 A COLD FRONT HAS JUST PUSHED SOUTH OF THE FCST AREA. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DIG INTO THE SWRN STATES BY 12Z MONDAY.
/ISSUED 507 AM CST SUN JAN 31 2016/ A COLD FRONT HAS JUST PUSHED SOUTH OF THE FCST AREA. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DIG INTO THE SWRN STATES BY 12Z MONDAY.
LOWER CEILINGS WILL MOVE IN TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER WESTERN MT THIS MORNING WILL MAKE SLOW PROGRESS ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST MT TODAY. CLOUD COVER WILL STEADILY INCREASE AS MOISTURE ARRIVES WITH THE TROUGH, LOWERING CEILINGS TO THE 5000-8000 RANGE BY LATE AFTN/EARLY EVE.
A WEAK LONG WAVE TROUGH OFFSHORE WILL EJECT A FEW MORE SHORT WAVES OUR WAY WITH MOST OF THE ENERGY STREAMING INTO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. THE LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE INLAND TODAY AND A LONG WAVE RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA. THE LAST OF THE SHORT WAVES MOVING DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
323 AM MST SUN JAN 31 2016 THE COLD FRONT DUG SOUTH THROUGH THE EVENING AND STALLED IN THE ABAJO-SAN JUAN MTNS THIS EARLY MORNING.
/ISSUED 319 AM EST SUN JAN 31 2016/ HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TODAY.
517 AM EST SUN JAN 31 2016 WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE UNTIL A STRONG COLD FRONT PASSES DURING MIDWEEK. WARM ADVCTN IN ADVN OF MIDWRN TROFG WL MAINTAIN TEMPS ABOUT 20 DEGREES ABOVE THE AVGS TODAY. RAIN CHCS WL ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE OVR AREAS WEST OF PIT AS ASCENT FIELDS ON THE ERN FLANK OF THAT TROF IMPROVE WITH THE MSTR SUPPLY. PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME LIKELY AS THE LOW CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES AND DRAGS A WEAK FRONT TOWARD THE UPR OHIO REGION TONIGHT.
The low clouds should remain east of the KJCT terminal this morning. The combination of a low level thermal ridge and some vertical mixing will be bring gusty west winds and highs in the lower to possibly mid 80s across the southern 2/3 of the area.
MONDAY WILL SEE THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT RETURN NORTH AS AS WARM FRONT.
WESTERN ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE TO BRING INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL VEER MORE SOUTHEAST INTO THE AFTERNOON WHILE MID LEVEL FLOW BACKS WEST-SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TODAY.
817 AM CST SUN JAN 31 2016 THE FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED TO EXPAND THE MENTION OF PATCHY FOG TO INCLUDE AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE HIGHWAY 90 CORRIDOR WEST OF SAN ANTONIO. FOG HAS ALREADY DISSIPATED GIVEN INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS AND SOME MIXING IN THE LOW-LEVELS. ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ON THE I295K SURFACE MATCHES WELL WITH THE LOW CIGS CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG REPORTED GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE BALCONES ESCARPMENT THIS MORNING. THE DIURNAL WEAKENING OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET AND MIXING SHOULD ELIMINATE THE FOG BY 16Z AND THIN CLOUDS BY 18Z.
A FEW LOCATIONS PICKED UP A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF PCPN AND SNOWFALL WAS LIMITED TO GRASSY SURFACES AS TEMPERATURES AVERAGED IN THE LOW/MID 30S WHILE THE PCPN WAS FALLING.
424 AM MST SUN JAN 31 2016 UPPER FLOW WILL BE ZONAL TODAY AND THEN SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE INTO NEVADA. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST SO THAT BY MONDAY NIGHT IT SHOULD BE OVER THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE.
1011 AM EST SUN JAN 31 2016 HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER EAST OF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST TODAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO QUEBEC TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. GRADUALLY PUSHING A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC STATES MONDAY NIGHT.
A TROUGH WILL KEEP THE AIR MASS COOL AND UNSTABLE TODAY FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
644 AM EST SUN JAN 31 2016 HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST TODAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO QUEBEC TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. GRADUALLY PUSHING A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC STATES MONDAY NIGHT.
A WEAK COLD FRONT, IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION, MONDAY MORNING, PERHAPS ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW SHOWERS.
A very warm night is underway across the region this morning, with 2 AM temperatures in the mid to upper 50s, with a few spots in the low 60s. As mentioned above, mid and high level cloud cover will stream into the area today, as a dry cold front drops south into the region from the northwest. Tonight looks to be cooler but still mild, with lows in the mid to upper 30s. East to southeast winds will start to ramp up near sunrise Monday, in response to low pressure forming over the High Plains.
THIS SYSTEM WILL HELP FORCE A COLD FRONT SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER THIS MORNING AND LIKELY THROUGH THE ENTIRE AREA THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE IT BECOMES STATIONARY THIS EVENING. THE RESULTING TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE COOLER THAN YESTERDAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. WARMER READINGS WILL BE FELT ACROSS THE SOUTH WHERE SOME HIGHS NEAR 80 WILL BE POSSIBLE PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT. WHICH WHEN COMBINED WITH COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT. DUE TO THE APPROACH OF A STRONGER UPPER TROUGH AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT.
COASTAL TROUGH THAT PROVIDED LIGHT WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BREAK DOWN BY MIDDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE ATLANTIC ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WILL THEN GENERATE A SOUTHEAST BREEZE AROUND 10 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN JUST EAST OF JACKSONVILLE OVER THE WESTERN ATLC WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW. THESE CONDS WILL HOLD MAX TEMPS TO AROUND 70 DEGREES DESPITE THE WARM AIR ADVECTION THAT COULD SUPPORT WARMER CONDS.
532 AM CST SUN JAN 31 2016 FOR 12Z TAFS /ISSUED 313 AM CST SUN JAN 31 2016/ THE 09Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED THAT A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WAS ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. WHICH IS MUCH WARMER DUE TO WARM ADVECTION COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MAKE ITS MOVE FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS STATES TODAY TO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY BY 06Z TONIGHT.
AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW RETURNS TO THE SOUTHEAST. CONVECTION WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM MAY PULL THE LOW SOUTHEAST.
A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FLINT HILLS EARLY THIS MORNING. GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL MAKE FOR A BRISK AND COOLER DAY THAN THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS.
The low level moisture that is present behind this front will move into southwest Kansas by late morning and then persist through late day as the winds gradually veer to the east southeast. Models this morning appear to be coming in to slightly better agreement with the track of the upper low as it lifts northeast from New Mexico into southwest Kansas Monday and Monday night.
CURRENT IR SATELLITE AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE SHALLOW STRATUS DECK/FOG ENTRENCHED OVER THE COASTAL BEND SHOULD DISSIPATE BY MID/LATE MORNING AS MIXING COMMENCES AND THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST. BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SFC WIND GUSTS NEAR 28 KTS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE LOW LVL JET STRENGTHENS TO 35-40 KNOTS. HOWEVER LOCATIONS NEAR THE COAST AND ONE COUNTY INLAND COULD SEE SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS DUE TO CAA OFF THE COLD GULF WATERS.
LINGERING SHOWERS EASTERN MIDDLE AND PLATEAU MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH COOLER TEMPS.
The combination of a low level thermal ridge and some vertical mixing will be bring gusty west winds and highs in the lower to possibly mid 80s across the southern 2/3 of the area.
COLD UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE INTERIOR WEST IN RESPONSE TO ENERGY DIGGING ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST TODAY. CLOUDS INCREASE MONDAY AS A WEAK UPPER TROUGH DROPS INTO THE AREA ON NW FLOW.
653 AM EST SUN JAN 31 2016 WARMER AIR WILL BE MOVING INTO THE REGION TODAY ON SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS. THE WARMTH WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY WHEN A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY.
1000 AM EST SUN JAN 31 2016 WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE UNTIL A STRONG COLD FRONT PASSES DURING MIDWEEK. MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE NEAR TERM THIS MORNING TO INCREASE DAYTIME MAX TEMPERATURES AND DELAYING ONSET OF PRECIPITATION UNTIL THIS EVENING AS LATEST GUIDANCE DOES A BETTER JOB AT HANDLING MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD OF A TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME LIKELY AS THE LOW CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES AND DRAGS A WEAK FRONT TOWARD THE UPR OHIO REGION TONIGHT.
516 AM EST SUN JAN 31 2016 HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL EXTEND INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TODAY. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE NEAR OR INTO THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND BECOME DIFFUSE.
9u satellite imagery, the low clouds are already beginning to develop to the south and west of our area. As the aforementioned system and associated cold front approach and cross the region today and tonight, the combination of deeper moisture and better low to mid level forcing really come together over our CWA, especially over the southeast half. Monday afternoon and evening the region should be dry with high pressure in control, however this period of dryness will be short lived.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AND SLIDE EAST. TODAY WILL ONLY BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY IN MOST LOCATIONS. WITH THE UPPER RIDGE SLIDING E AND THICKNESS VALUES COMING DOWN EXPECT TO SEE A FEW DEGREES OF COOLING TODAY. CONVECTION SHOULD QUICKLY SHIFT EAST OF THE CASCADES TONIGHT AS FLOW ALOFT TURNS MORE WESTERLY IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS BRITISH COLUMBIA AND ALBERTA. THE COOLER LOW-LEVEL TEMPS SHOULD FURTHER SERVE TO STABILIZE THE AIR MASS AND LIMIT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WED/THU. WILL PROBABLY BE A BURST OF GUSTY ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH THE COASTAL GAPS AND COLUMBIA GORGE TONIGHT/WED AS COOLER AIR WORKS ITS WAY INTO THE DISTRICT.
ISOLATED DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION STILL EXPECTED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. BLANCA MOISTURE IS BEING DRIVEN NORTHWARD AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DRIVES INTO THE WEST COAST UNDERCUTTING THE FLAT WESTERN RIDGE.
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO OUR EAST. MODELS ARE PICKING UP ON A WEAK PIECE OF ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH. SOME OF THE HIGH-RES GUIDANCE IS SHOWING ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON IN THESE SAME LOCATIONS. THESE MEMBERS ALSO KEEP THE HIGHER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR NORTH. THE MAIN LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL BE OFF THE COAST OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE.
1108 AM EDT TUE JUN 9 2015 WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TODAY. THE HIGH WILL QUICKLY MOVE EAST THIS EVENING ALLOWING SOUTHERLY FLOW TO RETURN TO THE AREA WEDNESDAY.
AN UPPER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL CALIFORNIA TONIGHT. THIS LOW WILL BRING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MAINLY INLAND AREAS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD TO OUR WEST WITH A BROAD AREA OF SUBSIDENCE AND GRADUALLY FALLING DEW POINTS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE DAY.
THE LOW POPS EXTEND NORTHEAST ALONG THE NC STATE LINE AS FAR NORTH AS THE SMOKIES. CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 88 67 90 69 / 40 10 10 10 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 86 65 88 68 / 20 10 10 10 OAK RIDGE, TN 86 65 89 68 / 10 10 10 10 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 83 59 86 61 / 20 10 10 10.
A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH DRY CONDITIONS LIKELY TONIGHT THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF WEDNESDAY.
THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN THIS MORNING CONSISTS OF AN UPPER RIDGE OVER SOUTHERN IDAHO WHILE A WEAK LOW REMAINS IN PLACE OVER CENTRAL/NORTHERN UTAH. A STORM SYSTEM IN THE FORM OF A CLOSED LOW CONTINUES TO BREW UPSTREAM OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. WHILE SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF IT IS PULLING TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM WHAT IS NOW POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE BLANCA ACROSS ARIZONA. A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER MAINLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN UTAH THIS AFTERNOON NEAR THE WEAK LOW. BECAUSE THE LOWER LEVELS WILL BE SLOWER TO MOISTEN UP.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR 33 NORTH AND 128 WEST EARLY THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW OF MOIST AIR INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST OREGON TODAY. AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES INTO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA LATER TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 5 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER THAN THEY ARE TODAY.
This has resulted in an array of temperatures across the area with elevated locations experiencing wind and warmer temperatures while the valleys have been mostly calm and cooler. This should lead to very warm high temperatures in the lower to middle 90s. Much of the afternoon and early evening on Wednesday remains dry while gusty southerly winds warm temps back into the lower and middle 90s under sunny skies.
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM A LOW IN CENTRAL MANITOBA SOUTHWESTWARD TO ANOTHER LOW NEAR THE BORDER OF SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA/NORTH DAKOTA.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH INTO THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL ONLY BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY DESPITE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. A NORTHWEST/SOUTHEAST ORIENTED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH AN INCREASING SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL JET FEEDING INTO THE AREA WILL HELP FOCUS STORMS INTO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. INVERTED TROUGH REMAINS OVER SOUTHEAST MONTANA.
/EC/ AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS SLOWLY SHIFTING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY BRINGING MUCH DRIER AIR IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS. AS A WEAK RIDGE PATTERN ALOFT RETURNS TO MUCH OF THE SE STATES WHILE THE SLY FLOW AT THE SFC WEAKENS.
925 AM PDT TUE JUN 9 2015 A TROPICAL AIR MASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TODAY AS THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE BLANCA MOVE BY TO OUR EAST.
THE MAIN SHORT WAVE TROF AXIS HAS PUSHED INTO NORTH ALABAMA AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-20. BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN TODAY WILL BE SOUTH OF I-20 AHEAD OF ADVANCING SURFACE TROF.
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO RETURN THIS WEEKEND. MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS DEPICT A MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS CENTERED ACROSS CENTRAL ID WITH A LINGERING SHEAR AXIS/DEFORMATION ZONE ACROSS NORTHERN UT. MEANWHILE FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST AN UPPER LOW IS NOTED SPINNING OFF THE SOUTHERN CA COAST WHILE DOWNSTREAM A DEEP FETCH OF SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS PULLED THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL SYSTEM BLANCA NORTHWARD INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL CONTINUE TO FLATTEN TODAY AS A WEAKENING PACIFIC SYSTEM MOVES TO THE COAST.
ALONG AN INTERTED TROF AXIS THAT IS OVER THE REGION. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE MID SOUTH WILL TRANSLATE EASTWARD AND DIP INTO SOUTHEASTERN US THIS AFTERNOON. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL DROP SOUTH ON TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WAS IN PLACE ACROSS MISSOURI AND THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. WEAK RIDGING IN PLACE ALOFT ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES CONTINUES TO ALLOW A QUICK NW FLOW ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA. HAVE ALSO TRENDED TEMPS SLIGHTLY COOLER GIVEN THE ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER. HAVE TRENDED TEMPS SLIGHTLY COOLER NEAR THE LAKE. PATCHY GROUND FOG HAD DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT FROM FAR SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN INTO NORTHWEST INDIANA BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT. A SHORT WAVE TROF WILL DROP SOUTHEAST TONIGHT TOWARD LOWER MICHIGAN. WITHIN THERMAL RIDGE AND STRONG INSOLATION/POOLED SFC DPS IN UPR 60S/NEAR 70.
ANOTHER PERIOD OF UNUSUALLY WET AND COOLER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS WILL ARRIVE TODAY AND WILL LAST INTO THE WEEKEND. WATER VAPOR LOOP IS SHOWING A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AROUND 33N/128W. A VERY ACTIVE AREA OF CONVECTION EAST ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE LOW IS PRODUCING SUBSTANTIAL LIGHTNING THIS MORNING. THE LOW OFF THE WEST COAST WILL BEGIN TO PROVIDE UPWARD FORCING LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE NIGHT TO KEEP SCATTERED SHOWERS GOING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
737 AM EDT TUE JUN 9 2015 A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE EAST AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. TONIGHT LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REACHING QUEBEC ON WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT TRAILING THE LOW WILL DROP ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
543 AM MDT TUE JUN 9 2015 A RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE PLAINS TODAY AND TONIGHT AND THEN SHIFT EAST INTO THE MISSOURI VALLEY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
918 AM EDT TUE JUN 9 2015 SHOWER CHANCES WILL DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT COMPLETES PASSAGE ACROSS THE REGION. WHAT'S LEFT OF THE COLD FRONT WILL FINALLY EXIT TO THE SOUTHEAST LATER THIS MORNING. UPPER TROUGH WILL PIVOT ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY.
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT WINDS TO WEST OR SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA. ALL THE HIGH RES MODELS SUCH AS THE 4 KM ARW AND 4 KM NMM ARE PRODUCING A LOT OF CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THESE MODELS ALSO KEEP DEW POINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. AFTER RISING INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S RIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT.
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL CIRCULATE WARM AND MOIST AIR INTO THE AREA DURING THE PERIOD. AND CONVERGENCE INTO THE WEAK TROUGH SUPPORTS A CONTINUED THUNDERSTORM CHANCE. THE HIGH- RESOLUTION MODELS DISPLAY MAINLY SCATTERED COVERAGE. THE MODELS SHOW LINGERING MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF A COLD FRONT. LEANED TOWARD THE HIGHER GUIDANCE POPS BASED ON THE SURFACE FEATURE AND UPPER TROUGHING. THE GFS AND ECMWF DISPLAYED H5 RIDGING OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD. THE GFS AND ECMWF MOS POPS WERE 10 TO 30 PERCENT DURING THE PERIOD WITH THE HIGH VALUES MAINLY EARLY WITH H5 RIDGING NOT QUITE AS STRONG.
CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH POST TROPICAL CYCLONE BLANCA WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH TO THE NORTH TODAY RESULTING IN COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
ESPECIALLY NORTH WHERE WE WERE COOLER TO BEGIN WITH. LOOK FOR HIGHS TODAY TO BE MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 90S ACROSS ALL BUT THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA AND WE ARE STILL LOOKING AT UPPER 80S THERE SO A VERY WARM DAY IS ON TAP. SOUNDINGS ARE QUITE DRY AND DESPITE DECENT INSTABILITY AND STEEP LAPSE RATES THERE IS NO FORCING AND NO BOUNDARY TO FOCUS ANYTHING ON AND THE BETTER SHEAR IS TIED TO THE LOW AND SURFACE BOUNDARY SO I DO NOT HAVE PRECIP IN THE GRIDS FOR TODAY. FAIRLY QUIET INITIALLY WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPPING THROUGH THE STATE TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S.
AND AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE LOW-MID 70S (MAYBE SOME UPR 70S IN THE VLYS OF NE PA) CONTINUE TO LOOK REASONABLE. LARGE-SCALE SINKING MOTION BEHIND THE SFC FRNT AND UPR-LVL TROUGH SHOULD LEAD TO CLEARING SKIES THIS EVE/OVERNIGHT. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE TOWARD EVENING ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES AND CENTRAL NY WHERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY AHEAD OF A TROF.
1025 AM CDT TUE JUN 9 2015 LATEST WATER VAPOR AND UPPER AIR DATA SHOWING NW TO SE ORIENTED UPPER TROUGH DROPPING SOUTHWARD THROUGH NE TEXAS ON EASTERN FLANK OF UPPER RIDGE. THIS UPPER TROUGH AND AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE ARE TWO POTENTIAL TRIGGERS FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. /ISSUED 307 AM CDT TUE JUN 9 2015/ MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE STATE THAT HAS BEEN MOSTLY RESPONSIBLE FOR OUR RECENT DRY SPELL AND ASSOCIATED WARMER TEMPERATURES IS STILL ON TRACK TO MOVE OFF TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY IN THE FORMATION STAGES ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE INTO THE THE GULF OF MEXICO AND EDGE WESTWARD TOWARD THE WESTERN GULF WATERS BY THE END OF THE WEEK. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY.
LATEST MODELS BRING THE UPPER LOW OFF SRN CALIFORNIA INLAND WEDNESDAY FARTHER SOUTH THAN BEFORE. VERY HOT TODAY AS UPPER HIGH. 5-8 DEGS COOLER WEDNESDAY WITH DRIER AIR SPREADING WEST TO EAST. AN UPPER TROUGH TRACKS INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN NW TONIGHT. KEEPING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OVERNIGHT. THE TROUGH PUSHES INTO IDAHO ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE FOCUS OF SHOWERS/STORMS AND POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN SHIFTING TO THE CENTRAL ID MTNS AND S-CENTRAL ID. BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON DRIER AIR BEHIND THE TROUGH WILL CUT OFF PRECIP DEVELOPMENT OVER MOST OF SE OREGON /NV BORDER REGION THE EXCEPTION/ WITH A DIMINISHING CHANCE FROM WEST TO EAST IN IDAHO ZONES.
THE COLD FRONT THAT BROUGHT THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO START THE WORK WEEK HAS ALREADY LOST ITS IDENTITY FOR ALL PRACTICAL PURPOSES. THE NEAR TERM WILL START OFF WITH A TROUGH IN THE EAST AND RIDGE OUT WEST. BUT TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE WARMER THAN YESTERDAY OWING TO THE INCREASED INSOLATION. THE UPPER PATTERN WILL TRANSITION TO SOUTHWEST FLOW AS A TROUGH TAKES SHAPE OUT WEST WITH A RIDGE SLOWLY BUILDING IN THE EAST.
/ISSUED 359 AM CDT Tue Jun 9 2015/ (Today and Tonight) Still quiet for most areas of West Central Texas, with the Upper Level Ridge of high pressure extending from Mexico northward across the Southern Rockies.
1049 AM EDT TUE JUN 9 2015 GENERALLY WEAK EAST TO SOUTHEAST SURFACE FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE POSITIONED EAST OF THE BAHAMAS. ONE IS AN INFLUX OF TROPICAL MOISTURE AND THE OTHER IS THE STEERING FLOW SHIFTING TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST IN THE LOWER TO MID LEVELS. THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS INDICATES THAT MOISTURE CONTINUING TO LIFT NORTHWARD AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHERLY TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. EVEN THOUGH THE GUIDANCE TREND THE LAST FEW DAYS HAS BEEN INDICTING A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE EASTERN GULF TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AND THE DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION IS NOT FORECAST TO BE HAMPERED WITH THE GUIDANCE INDICATING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE PENINSULA.
WITH THE HIGHEST PRECIP CHANCES OVER THE N RRV/NW MN THROUGH LATE MORNING. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THE MAIN UPPER WAVE THAT WILL IMPACT OUR WEATHER TODAY MOVING INTO WESTERN MANITOBA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH THE SFC COLD FRONT DROPPING ACROSS SE SASKATCHEWAN AND EASTERN MONTANA. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SE THROUGH THE DAY. UPSTREAM HIGHS AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS CANADA YESTERDAY WERE IN THE LOW 90S IN SPOTS. SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED FARTHER NORTH AND WEST. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. COOLER.
BUT WEAK TROUGHING ALOFT AND MARGINAL TO MODERATE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY KEEP AT LEAST ISOLATED CONVECTION IN THE FORECAST ACROSS THE NORTH.
SO NO LIFT WAS INDICATED IN THE LOWER LEVELS. WITH AN UPPER HIGH DOMINATING THE ROCKIES AND WEST. AN MID/UPPER RIDGE WILL BE IN THE BREAKDOWN PHASE ON WEDNESDAY AS WEAK UPPER ENERGY TRANSLATES EAST ATOP THE PLAINS. WEAK SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS/LEE TROUGH WILL ENSUE AS THE DISTURBANCE ADVANCES EAST. EXTENDING FROM THE HIGH PLAINS LOW WILL BE A WARM FRONT WHICH ARCS NORTHEAST FROM THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE WEST INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THE MODELS INITIATE CONVECTION OFF THE LEE TROUGH TO OUR WEST.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE DAY.
OBSERVED AND FORECAST SOUNDING DATA SHOWS DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 60S THIS MORNING SHOULD RESULT IN LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FOG FORMATION IN THE EARLY MORNING DUE TO SHALLOW MOISTURE DEPTH/DECREASE IN MIXING RATIO WITH HEIGHT. CENTRAL ILLINOIS WILL REMAIN IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN U. AND TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN U.
THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEYS STRETCHING SOUTHWARD INTO THE MID SOUTH. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WAS APPARENT FROM THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THESE STORMS WERE DEVELOPING NEAR AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM DAYTIME CONVECTION AND A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH. THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT REMAINS FROM NORTHERN KENTUCKY INTO ARKANSAS. ALL MODELS LEAVE ENERGY BEHIND OVER THE DEEP SOUTH AS THE MAIN TROUGH EXITS NORTHEASTWARD.
1014 AM EDT TUE JUN 9 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL DRIFT EAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.