Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
High pressure continues to build across the Rio Grande Valley, with generally northerly winds continuing.
309 PM MST Thu Mar 5 2020 An upper level ridge will build over the state through Friday. On Friday, lee troughing, weak downslope, and warm advection will provide for a sharp warmup, with high temperatures much above normal.
Upper level ridging will continue to slide east from the Northern Rockies and over the Northern High Plains throughout the overnight hours tonight.
440 PM MST Thu Mar 5 2020 18 UTC Water Vapor Imagery/RAP dynamic tropopause analysis indicated trough digging into Great Lakes region with ridging over the northern Rockies. Main forecast concerns will center around fire weather potential tomorrow as overall quiet weather is expected to continue through friday evening as H5 ridge will dominate the weather pattern over the area bringing widespread subsidence and dry conditions. Winds will veer around to the south-southwest tonight as trough forms across eastern Colorado.
122 PM PST Thu Mar 5 2020 Weak high pressure will bring dry and warm weather through Friday, with some coastal low clouds in the nights and mornings.
There is the potential for highs in the lower 70s across wrn Nebraska where temperatures at h850 will rise above 10C late Friday afternoon.
600 PM CST Thu Mar 5 2020 A tightened pressure gradient with the exiting low and just enough subsidence in the low levels will result in gusty winds across far southern parts of the forecast area this evening. A brisk afternoon with rain and snow showers scattered about as deep low pressure moves through northern WI. Otherwise, temperatures as of 1 pm Breezy conditions initially going into tonight but then quieter overnight as high pressure builds in from the Plains. Plan on cooler lows, falling into the teens and 20s. Ridge of high pressure will move overhead Friday for sunny skies with temperatures topping off in the 30s to lower 40s. Return flow/southerly winds kick in Friday night on the backside of the departing high pressure, marking the warmup for the weekend.
527 PM CST Thu Mar 5 2020 The cold front has pushed well south of the forecast area this afternoon with a very dry airmass surging in behind the front. The low RH values combined with strong winds have led to dangerous fire weather conditions across the region.
601 PM CST Thu Mar 5 2020 A cold front was moving through the region this afternoon. Overnight lows are expected to be in the 30s with the coolest temperatures in NE MO and west central IL where the cold front moved through earlier and cold air advection has been occurring for at least part of the day. Kanofsky Temperatures will be slightly cooler on Friday in the wake of the cold front with highs only reaching the upper 40s to lower 50s.
450 PM EST Thu Mar 5 2020 A ridge of high pressure will briefly build in from the west this evening. low pressure will rapidly intensify off the mid Atlantic coast before passing well offshore to our southeast Friday night. High pressure will follow for the weekend.
Another warm front will quickly form over the Northern Plains and spread a few clouds over northern Iowa Friday. Otherwise, some recovery in temperatures will occur by late afternoon though for the most part, Friday will be cooler than today.
Much drier air was pushing south as well given the deep tropospheric subsidence and downslope component of the lower tropospheric winds. Tonight, winds will slacken off substantially as low level ridging moves across western kansas. The period of light winds will not last all that long as a new leeside trough develops by early Friday.
Latest Hi-Res computer simulations, PVA analysis, GOES satellite imagery, real-time data and forecast model soundings indicate that upper ridge axis located along a northern Utah into far West Texas axis late this afternoon will shift to a central Texas to northwest Colorado axis by later Friday afternoon allowing dry conditions to continue over the CWA during the next 24 hours. In addition, surface lee side troughing is expected to develop over eastern Colorado as Friday progresses and when combined with projected increasing 700 MB temperatures, expect that maximum temperatures on Friday will run some 10F to 15F degrees warmer over eastern locations, when compared to today's maximum values, while western sections of the CWA should only experience minor warming.
659 PM EST Thu Mar 5 2020 Low pressure over the FL Panhandle will track northeast to the South Carolina coast tonight, holding widespread rain across the area into tonight. High pressure along with dry weather will return for Friday through the weekend. Marine observations and satellite imagery indicate that the center of the low pressure area is consolidating off the South Carolina coast, and should continue to move eastward into the western Atlantic, taking the deep moisture away.
An upper-level low pressure system could be seen on satellite imagery spinning over the Great Lakes region, and much drier air could be seen filtering across much of the central and eastern CONUS in the wake of its trough axis. At the surface, a cold front dropping out of the High Plains is ushering in drier air with PWAT values down to 0. The drier and cooler air will certainly be appreciated as we wrap up this afternoon and look to a sunny Friday across the forecast area. High temperatures tomorrow will be around 60 degrees +/- a few degrees, as the conflicting effects of cold air advection and abundant sunshine keep the lower atmosphere well mixed.
232 PM MST Thu Mar 5 2020 Current surface analysis shows low pressure over the western Great Lakes region, with high pressure centered over the northern and central high Plains. Upper level analysis shows low pressure system over the Great Lakes, with ridge now centered over the Rockies. Skies are sunny across the area with temps mostly in the 40s, some 30s across the higher Black Hills. Ridge will shift east across the region over the next couple of days, with warm air returning.
/NEW/ /Through Friday Night/ A weak cold front will send a reinforcing push of cool and dry air across North and Central Texas tonight. The axis of an upper level ridge will move east of the region Friday night.
Upper trough moving through eastern MN now with widespread rain/snow showers should taper to the southeast this evening and end. cooler temperatures tonight with clearing sky, with teens and low 20s. High pressure to dominate Friday with plenty of sunshine expected. As the high moves off Friday night, temperatures should become steady or slowly rise overnight as winds become more southerly and increases.
High pressure will settle in over the region tonight bringing SKC.
As this high continues to build in this evening, winds will pick up from the northwest at 10-15 mph (with higher gusts). Strong northwesterly flow throughout the column will lead to gusty northwest winds across the region Friday, along with cooler and drier conditions at the surface. Ten hour fuel moisture is in the 7-8% range and adjective fire danger ratings may reach the high category tomorrow afternoon given the low relative humidity and gusty winds.
421 PM CST Thu Mar 5 2020 A cold front was moving through the region this afternoon. Overnight lows are expected to be in the 30s with the coolest temperatures in NE MO and west central IL where the cold front moved through earlier and cold air advection has been occurring for at least part of the day. Kanofsky Temperatures will be slightly cooler on Friday in the wake of the cold front with highs only reaching the upper 40s to lower 50s.
GAH AFTERNOON DISCUSSION: A wonderfully gorgeous weekend, at least the first half of the weekend, is in store for northeast Montana - as a strong ridge of high pressure moves through the region over the next day or so. Friday, the warmest day of the season is expected, with highs ranging from the mid 40s in our north, to the lower 70s in our south.
Tonight will see lows in the low to mid 30s with clear skies persisting in this very dry airmass. Friday will again be sunny, but cooler with highs in the low to mid 50s.
800 PM MST Thu Mar 5 2020 Ridging dominates The Treasure State for the next 24 hours. Upper level ridging will continue to slide east from the Northern Rockies and over the Northern High Plains throughout the overnight hours tonight.
102 PM PST Thu Mar 5 2020 Dry weather with much warmer than normal temperatures will continue across the area through Friday. Expect yet another warm afternoon today and again Friday across the central California interior as high pressure remains in control.
The ridge that's been over the western CONUS (which has brought us the recent quiet weather) is currently being forced east by a large trough off the west coast of British Columbia.
High pressure today will shift east of the area tonight allowing an increasingly strong and moist southwesterly flow spread over the area this weekend.
High pressure sliding across the region tonight will bring light and variable winds.
/issued 151 PM CST Thu Mar 5 2020/ As the upper trough that brought the rain moves off to the east a high pressure ridge will build in from the west.
/issued 208 PM CST Thu Mar 5 2020/ (Tonight and Friday) As of 1 pm, a weak cold front was moving south across the Big Country.
219 PM MST Thu Mar 5 2020 A beautiful day today across much of the Northern Rockies will give way to high clouds by Friday afternoon ahead of an off-shore trough of low pressure. This trough will draw Pacific moisture up from the southwest, bringing valley rain and mountain snow into northwest Montana by Friday night.
414 PM MST Thu Mar 5 2020 Current surface analysis shows low pressure over the western Great Lakes region, with high pressure centered over the northern and central high Plains. Upper level analysis shows low pressure system over the Great Lakes, with ridge now centered over the Rockies. Skies are sunny across the area with temps mostly in the 40s, some 30s across the higher Black Hills. Ridge will shift east across the region over the next couple of days, with warm air returning.
304 PM MST Thu Mar 5 2020 A wonderfully gorgeous weekend, at least the first half of the weekend, is in store for northeast Montana - as a strong ridge of high pressure moves through the region over the next day or so. Friday, the warmest day of the season is expected, with highs ranging from the mid 40s in our north, to the lower 70s in our south.
855 PM CST Thu Mar 5 2020 A dry reinforcing cold front is beginning to move SE thru NW AL this Thu evening, under predom clr skies. There is a secondary band of mid level stratus associated with a passing upper level trough axis that is crossing the OH Valley into NW/north cntrl TN, but these clouds look to stay just north of the local area. While the influx of cooler air in the wake of the passing front is rather weak, noticeably drier air is beginning to spread SE into much of west TN/north MS, with dew pts falling well into the upper 20s/mid 30s. High pressure starts building over the area on Friday, with breezy conditions through the first half of the day. As the high pressure center moves into place over the Tennessee Valley, winds will relax Friday night.
We will see a weak and dry cold front move through the region tonight. Cooler temperatures will remain in place for Friday with highs in the mid 60s aross the area with some passing high clouds through the day.
The main closed low pressure center is positioned right along the AL/GA/FL border and will continue to push east through Friday morning. The main low pressure center pushes off the GA/FL coast by 03z tonight with a large area of high pressure building into the southeastern U. With the continued NW flow low temps Sat morning will dip down into the 20s across the North GA mountains and into the lower to middle 30s elsewhere.
An upper trough over the Upper Midwest will progress towards the Great Lakes tonight with upper ridging moving into the Plains. Ahead of the ridge, deep mixing has kept northwest winds strong through the day; most locations have reported gusts of 30-40 mph. If deeper mixing occurs, fire weather conditions could reach the high category again on Friday.
859 PM EST Thu Mar 5 2020 Low pressure over the FL Panhandle will track northeast to the South Carolina coast tonight, holding widespread rain across the area into tonight. High pressure along with dry weather will return for Friday through the weekend.
320 PM CST Thu Mar 5 2020 An upper trough over the Upper Midwest will progress towards the Great Lakes tonight with upper ridging moving into the Plains. Ahead of the ridge, deep mixing has kept northwest winds strong through the day; most locations have reported gusts of 30-40 mph. If deeper mixing occurs, fire weather conditions could reach the high category again on Friday.
but will gradually see winds speeds decrease through the rest of the TAF period as high pressure moves into the region. As winds gain a southerly component on Saturday as the high shifts away from the region, humidity will increase.
157 AM MST Fri Mar 6 2020 Water vapor shows large ridge building through the western CONUS. At the surface, ridge is located over the eastern Dakotas with lee trof advancing into eastern MT/WY. Dry and much warmer weather will be the story both today and Saturday, with main forecast concerns centered around fire weather (see fire weather discussion below). Lee trof will advance through much of the CWFA today, allowing temps to climb well into the 60s at most plains locations. Thermal ridge then peaks over the CWFA on Saturday, with plenty of highs in the 70s east/south of the Black Hills. Gusty southwest winds may continue into the night ahead of approaching cold front.
1134 PM CST Thu Mar 5 2020 The cold front has pushed well south of the forecast area this afternoon with a very dry airmass surging in behind the front. The low RH values combined with strong winds have led to dangerous fire weather conditions across the region. Critical fire weather conditions look to return Saturday as the upper ridge builds over the central conus.
An upper level ridge will build over the state through Friday. On Friday, lee troughing, weak downslope, and warm advection will provide for a sharp warmup, with high temperatures much above normal.
852 PM MST Thu Mar 5 2020 High pressure will shift east of the area tonight allowing an increasingly strong and moist southwesterly flow spread over the area this weekend.
West winds will pick up overnight, turning to the northwest, as temperatures fall into the low and mid 30s.
Precip chances return Saturday with accumulating snow and possible chain controls across the higher elevations. JHM Upper ridge will shift east into the Central States through Friday. A trough currently over the Pacific will quickly move east through NorCal Saturday, as the ridge finally shifts east.
Morning lows will range from the low to mid 30s but could be slightly cooler if winds stay light for a good portion of the night. Passage of an upper level high pressure ridge will occur Friday, overall a fairly nice day. Southerly low level flow redevelops but owing to the cooler start, temperatures Friday only able to recover to near or a little shy of normal. Southerly low level flow will strengthen with breezy or possibly low-end windy conditions developing along with slightly warmer temperatures.
Temperatures aren't expected to come up much, with many areas only getting into the low 40s. In areas where clouds linger all night, temperatures will likely be few degrees warmer compared to areas that clear out.
Currently, a well-amplified upper ridge resides over eastern MT and Saskatchewan. At the surface, a ridge axis over the eastern half of the CWA is causing calm winds in northwest Minnesota. Low pressure is over northern Alberta, with about a 16 mb pressure gradient over western ND and along the Sask/Mb provincial border. With the southerly winds ushering in warmer air (temperatures in the mid to upper 30s west of the valley), potential for low drifting snow or blowing snow is negligible. Afternoon highs Friday will be a few degrees warmer than yesterday, but the most noticeable effect of the warm air advection will be Friday night lows remaining in the 20s, much warmer than current single digit temperatures across northwest Minnesota.
VFR conditions prevail through the TAF period with high pressure building across the Rio Grande Valley. High pressure continues to build across the Rio Grande Valley, with generally northerly winds continuing. /issued 241 PM CST Thu Mar 5 2020/ SHORT TERM (Tonight through Friday Night): Mid level ridging will build quickly across the area over the next 36 hours, even shifting slightly to the east of the area by Saturday night. High pressure too will exhibit a similar behavior. However, reinforcing Plains high pressure will move into the area on Friday, putting the kibosh on a sustained warming trend through Saturday.
Surface ridging is reinforced this morning with light winds overnight being replaced with northerlies at 5 to 15 mph. Weak ridging aloft over TX will thwart the push of mid-level Pacific moisture today, but some scattered areas of high level cloudiness is expected. Progressive flow continues over the CONUS and the ridge axis shifts to east TX while a weak mid-level disturbance moves across northern Mexico into TX late tonight into Saturday. Added mid level clouds and dry dewpoints that will be lowered from today's northerly winds should lead to cooler max temps for Saturday afternoon. Both the ECM and GFS based MOS guidance trends are cooler over the past couple days, and most of the area is now expected to see a Saturday max only in the low to mid 60s.
As our upper ridge begins to build, increasing southerly winds will make a return as we will restart a gradual warming trend. With maximum sunshine during the day, expecting seasonably normal and mild temperatures with highs in the lower 60s. High cloudiness will be increasing Friday night as the upper ridge dirties up.
1250 AM EST Fri Mar 6 2020 Low pressure over the FL Panhandle will track northeast to the South Carolina coast tonight, holding widespread rain across the area into tonight. High pressure along with dry weather will return for Friday through the weekend. Mixing is expected to keep temperatures from bottoming out on Friday night, but ideal radiational cooling is expected Saturday night with high pressure overhead, calm winds, and clear skies. Highs in the mid to upper 50s both days with lows in the lower 30s.
1004 PM MST Thu Mar 5 2020 Quiet weather across the CWA through Saturday with warmer temperatures. Upper ridge will move across the region on Friday and leave swly flow aloft in its wake for Saturday. Some lee troughing will set up over the high plains resulting in warming downslope flow across the CWA. Dry until perhaps saturday night when a few snow showers may occur over the higher mtns.
/Today through Saturday/ A reinforcing cold front continues to shift SE across the region this morning, ushering in slightly cooler and noticeably drier air behind it. High pressure will quickly build in behind the departing front today with afternoon high temperatures climbing quite comfortably into the mid to upper 60s in this increasingly dry air mass. As winds decouple overnight under mostly clear skies, temperatures will fall off rather quickly with lows expected to range through the 30s over much of the region by early Saturday morning with a few our northern zones possibly reaching the freezing mark right around daybreak. /Saturday Night through Friday Night/ By late weekend, upper ridging will begin to shift east of our region as upper flow will become southwesterly with a broad trough of low pressure developing across the western CONUS.
High pressure will gradually slide east over the weekend with warming temperatures.
Another cold front moves thru around 15z with northerly winds picking up and becoming gusty at times.
1041 PM EST Thu Mar 5 2020 Currently - Winds are light and mostly out of the south to southwest across the Keys this evening due to a mid latitude trough stretching across Florida and into the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Meanwhile, a cold front is intruding southeastward into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. The cold front is expected to begin working its way through our deep gulf waters early Friday, where winds will shift northwest and begin freshening. Ahead of this front, the lower level flow will gradually moisten and the prefrontal trough will be in the vicinity of the Keys. A cold front will work its way southeastward through Keys waters Friday and Friday night. An approaching cold front is expected to lead to isolated to scattered shower formation, affecting the island terminals with sub VFR conditions early Friday.
Thin mid and high-level clouds are streaming over the area from the southwest this evening as relatively warm moist air spreads in advance of an upper level trough still off the coast. Numerous showers Saturday associated with a passing cold front.
220 AM CST Fri Mar 6 2020 Amplified upper level longwave ridge works across the upper mississippi river valley this weekend.
As this high continues to build in this evening, winds will pick up from the northwest at 10-15 mph (with higher gusts). Strong northwesterly flow throughout the column will lead to gusty northwest winds across the region Friday, along with cooler and drier conditions at the surface. Ten hour fuel moisture is in the 7-8% range and adjective fire danger ratings may reach the high category tomorrow afternoon given the low relative humidity and gusty winds. Strong northwest flow aloft will allow temperatures to dip into the low 30s across the Mid-South Saturday morning.
Temperatures in Northeast Texas and Southwest Arkansas have been slightly warmer than anticipated this evening, but the rate of cooling should increase over the next few hours as winds continue to diminish and cooler and drier air is advected into the region. We will see a weak and dry cold front move through the region tonight. Cooler temperatures will remain in place for Friday with highs in the mid 60s aross the area with some passing high clouds through the day.
The ridge that's been over the western CONUS (which has brought us the recent quiet weather) is currently being forced east by a large trough off the west coast of British Columbia. A piece of energy from this large trough will move southward by Saturday. The short term forecast will remain quiet as the ridge pushes east.
The first part of the forecast remains fairly quiet with high pressure in control of the sensible weather.
With the warmer temperatures expecting the humidity to be lower. Also the warmer temperatures will lead to lower elevations with snowpack seeing more snow melt.
The latest upper level analysis revealed occluding low pressure over the Great Lakes with upstream ridging shifting over the Rocky Mountains and Great Basin. Although the 500mb - 250mb winds will not be very strong, there will be enough of a cross barrier component to help drive surface lee troughing and a modest pressure gradient across the Panhandles by Friday afternoon. Latest 05/12Z model and numerical data shows a large upper level low pressure 2moving equatorward near the CONUS west coastline.
Upper trough moving through eastern MN now with widespread rain/snow showers should taper to the southeast this evening and end. cooler temperatures tonight with clearing sky, with teens and low 20s. High pressure to dominate Friday with plenty of sunshine expected. As the high moves off Friday night, temperatures should become steady or slowly rise overnight as winds become more southerly and increases. Strong upper-level ridging will shift over the Northern Plains by Saturday morning, which will provide for a very mild weekend.
Strong upper level ridging will continue to dominate the pattern through Saturday.