Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
High pressure over the southeastern United States is slowly shifting eastward, and the gradient is gradually increasing in response. Dewpoints are hovering around 65 degrees and temperatures have only made it into the lower 70s, so a beautiful fall morning is taking place across the Florida Keys this morning! The moisture that is currently south of the island chain will reside there through the remainder of the day. From synopsis, high pressure over the Southeastern United States will shift slowly eastward into the western Atlantic through Wednesday, with fresh to strong northeast to east breezes prevailing across the Keys coastal waters.
1149 AM CST Tue Nov 16 2021 Sensible weather during the short term period will be dominated by a strong low pressure center heading east across southern Canada. Meanwhile, the surface warm front will lift north into far southern Minnesota and a triple point low will push east along it. A local enhancement of wind aloft will form by midday within the deep warm frontal inversion. There may also be some flurries or light snow showers across central Minnesota in the afternoon as deeper moisture wraps around the low well to the north.
A series of dry troughs will brush Arizona this week resulting in lower high temperatures and periods of breezy southwest winds. A deep low pressure center in the southern Canadian plains is embedded in an upper-level trough that will brush northern Arizona today. Maintained a low percentile blend to account for these potential cooler temperatures that night.
306 PM EST Tue Nov 16 2021 High pressure will prevail through Wednesday.
1012 AM MST Tue Nov 16 2021 Cold front moving across forecast area this morning, just north of Rapid City at 10 AM.
245 PM CST Tue Nov 16 2021 20Z water vapor imagery shows an upper low moving across southern Canada with a stream of moisture within the westerlies across the Rockies into the Central Plains and Upper Midwest. There remains a small chance for some drizzle in east central KS after midnight tonight as isentropic lift increases ahead of the prefrontal trough. Still looks like there is overall a bit better saturation near sunrise around the time the cold front passes, so can't rule out a brief period of light rain or drizzle. CAA alongside partly to mostly cloudy skies means temperatures should remain fairly steady during the day with highs in the low 50s for most.
Cold front expected to move through the Panhandles tonight. Additionally, temperatures will likely be 20-30 degrees cooler on Wednesday, with highs in the 50s. Upper level trough currently over central Canada will amplify and deepen over the central Plains tonight into Wednesday. As a result much cooler air will be displaced over the Panhandles. All moisture will stay well ahead of the trough and to the east, affecting mainly the midwest states.
A cold front will move across the region on Wednesday.
237 PM CST Tue Nov 16 2021 Main challenge is chances for light precipitation across far southeast Kansas ahead of the approaching cold front late tonight, then wind/temperature trends into Wednesday. The associated upper trof axis will sharpen as it moves eastward across the north central conus tonight thru Wednesday. Lift just ahead of the advancing cold front may moisten the lower levels enough to result in patchy drizzle/light rain across southeast Kansas early Wednesday morning. Despite strong drying in the lower levels, there will be a plethora of post-frontal mid/high clouds much of the daylight hours.
In locations that have seen the clouds scatter out, temperatures have climbed into the lower to mid 70s while mid to upper 60s are occurring underneath the stratus. Expect highs to be in the lower to mid 70s across the entire CWA as not expecting as much stratus to develop overnight tonight. However by late Wednesday afternoon, showers will begin to occur across Northeast Arkansas and the Missouri Bootheel ahead of an approaching cold front.
Tonights temperatures will be a few degrees warmer with lows ranging from the mid 40s over inland se Ga to the mid 50s at the ne Fl coast.
A low pressure center over the southern High Plains will fill a bit tonight as a cold front advances south, however, strong high pressure over the Gulf will help keep the gradient tight. VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours as high pressure remains in control. /issued 413 AM CST Tue Nov 16 2021/ SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday): 500 mb ridging overhead will provide subsidence across deep south Texas through the period. A nearly zonal flow aloft today will become more southwesterly by Wednesday as the next large scale trough swings eastward over the Rockies into the Northern Plains. At the surface, high pressure across the northeastern Gulf of Mexico this morning will slide farther eastward today and tonight. Low pressure developing across the Plains today will support moderate to breezy winds near the coast today into tonight.
252 PM CST Tue Nov 16 2021 Current analysis places deep stacked low pressure system over southeastern Saskatchewan. At the surface, cold front is now pushing through eastern North Dakota. For tonight, stacked upper low continues on an eastward track, passing along just to the north of the international border. A secondary cold front works its way through the area overnight. Winds ease up Wednesday evening as pressure gradient relaxes, and surface ridging starts to work in. Weak ridging expected to end the week, bringing a modest warming trend returning temperatures to around average.
With a well-mixed boundary layer, overnight temperatures will only fall into the low to mid 50s. Despite cloudy skies, warm air advection will allow high temperatures to once again peak in the low to mid 70s across the region.
937 AM PST Tue Nov 16 2021 Cloudy and cooler today with widespread high clouds.
Winds along with temperatures will be on the rise again on Wednesday, reaching into the lower 80s over our southern most counties. However, with the next cold front tracking through the area Wednesday, the northern half of our area will only see highs in the upper 60s to mid 70s. (Wednesday Night through Tuesday) The cold front will push south across the southern half of our area Wednesday evening.
557 PM CST Tue Nov 16 2021 For the 00Z TAFs, a strong cold front will move across the region late tonight and will be accompanied by gusty north winds in its wake for several hours. Cold front expected to move through the Panhandles tonight. Additionally, temperatures will likely be 20-30 degrees cooler on Wednesday, with highs in the 50s. Upper level trough currently over central Canada will amplify and deepen over the central Plains tonight into Wednesday. As a result much cooler air will be displaced over the Panhandles. All moisture will stay well ahead of the trough and to the east, affecting mainly the midwest states.
20Z water vapor imagery shows an upper low moving across southern Canada with a stream of moisture within the westerlies across the Rockies into the Central Plains and Upper Midwest. There remains a small chance for some drizzle in east central KS after midnight tonight as isentropic lift increases ahead of the prefrontal trough. Still looks like there is overall a bit better saturation near sunrise around the time the cold front passes, so can't rule out a brief period of light rain or drizzle. CAA alongside partly to mostly cloudy skies means temperatures should remain fairly steady during the day with highs in the low 50s for most.
Upper low is tracking across southern Canada with a broad trof over the northern high plains. Winds will decrease slightly overnight, then increase again Wednesday morning as a small wave drops into the base of the trof across the forecast area.
A cooler airmass will settle into the region for the midweek period.
(This evening through Wednesday) The main concerns for the short term: strong north winds (35-45 mph gusts), elevated to near critical fire weather conditions (western and west-central Oklahoma and adjacent parts of western north Texas), and high temperatures for tomorrow following the passage of the cold front. Zonal flow at the mid-levels shifts to southwesterly tonight into tomorrow as a trough tracks across southern Canada. The trailing cold front arrives over northwest Oklahoma tonight and is expected to reach central Oklahoma by daybreak. Just prior to daybreak, temperatures will range from the the mid 40s (northwest Oklahoma) to the low 60s (southeast OK).
700 PM EST Tue Nov 16 2021 High pressure over the region will move offshore Wednesday.
206 PM MST Tue Nov 16 2021 Cold front associated with an upper low moving through Canada will move through the Tri State area between 00z and 06z tonight. The cooler temperatures will keep afternoon minimum relative humidity at around 20 percent, so no fire weather concerns expected, though fuels remain dry and as mentioned north winds will be gusty through the day.
borsum We are consistently getting gusts 50-65 mph across the lower elevations at this time. Wind in the mountains have backed off, so dropped the high wind warnings there.
929 PM EST Tue Nov 16 2021 Southerly flow will bring dry conditions and a warming trend into Wednesday as high pressure heads offshore.
311 PM MST Tue Nov 16 2021 Upper low is tracking across southern Canada with a broad trof over the northern high plains. Winds will decrease slightly overnight, then increase again Wednesday morning as a small wave drops into the base of the trof across the forecast area.
259 PM MST Tue Nov 16 2021 We are consistently getting gusts 50-65 mph across the lower elevations at this time. Wind in the mountains have backed off, so dropped the high wind warnings there.
321 PM CST Tue Nov 16 2021 The short term period will feature dry conditions, with much cooler temperatures compared to the past few days. A frontal boundary associated with low pressure tracking across south central Canada is currently moving through the eastern part of the CWA, and will be just east of the CWA early this evening. As the low center continues to slowly track eastward tonight and Wednesday, will see a tightening pressure gradient that will keep wind speeds up through the overnight period and through the day Wednesday.
312 PM MST Tue Nov 16 2021 A diffuse cold front is currently working its way through Wyoming. Much lighter winds are forecast for Wednesday with a colder air mass in place and weak ridging aloft.
534 PM CST Tue Nov 16 2021 A potent closed low will evolve across southern Canada (Manitoba) tonight. A cold front will surge south through the area on the backside of the upper low this evening. Nevertheless, a considerable drop in temperatures will later tonight into Wednesday behind the strong cold front. Portions of north central Nebraska could stay a few degrees warmer in the lower 20s where winds will stay up somewhat through the night.
701 PM EST Tue Nov 16 2021 Southerly flow will bring dry conditions and a warming trend into Wednesday as high pressure heads offshore.
Strong high pressure over the Pacific Northwest will promote offshore winds across mountain ridges tonight, with a calm and cool night in most valleys.
This cloud cover has been holding back temperatures from breaking any records today, but the combination of peeks of sunshine and the mixing down of warmer temperatures from the low-level inversion allowed temperatures reach the low-to-mid 70's for much of the CWA. Going forward into the evening, a cold front is expected to push through the area, not with any precipitation but it will carry a stark change in highs going forward. Along with the frontal passage overnight, lower dewpoints will be left behind as the main moisture is scoured out and the lowered RH's will also mean elevated fire concerns.
Somewhat cooler weather will infiltrate the region over the next couple days, however readings will still remain slightly above normal for the remainder of the week. Early afternoon satellite imagery and objective analysis indicates a weak midtropospheric trough axis passing through the SW Conus and entraining a plume of thick upper level moisture in the form of dense cirrus cover. Any lower level frontal boundary is not evident in the analysis, and more so the modest height falls and thicker cloud cover were holding temperatures some 5F-10F cooler than yesterday. Upper level heights will attempt to rebound slightly the next several days under flat ridging, however the flow pattern will dampen into a more quasi-zonal regime with H5 heights hovering around 582dm.
Deepening low pressure to our northwest has resulted in a breezy day today with many locations consistently gusting above 20 knots. A cold front will be approaching the area in the overnight period Wednesday night.
340 PM CST Tue Nov 16 2021 A potent closed low will evolve across southern Canada (Manitoba) tonight. A cold front will surge south through the area on the backside of the upper low this evening. Nevertheless, a considerable drop in temperatures will later tonight into Wednesday behind the strong cold front. Portions of north central Nebraska could stay a few degrees warmer in the lower 20s where winds will stay up somewhat through the night.
440 PM MST Tue Nov 16 2021 Upper low is tracking across southern Canada with a broad trof over the northern high plains. Winds will decrease slightly overnight, then increase again Wednesday morning as a small wave drops into the base of the trof across the forecast area.
This allowed the High Wind Warning to be eliminated across Petroleum county and southwest Phillips county.
Then the next cold front will be moving down the eastern slopes of the rockies and into central Texas by tomorrow evening.
404 PM CST Tue Nov 16 2021 Current analysis places deep stacked low pressure system over southeastern Saskatchewan. At the surface, cold front is now pushing through eastern North Dakota. For tonight, stacked upper low continues on an eastward track, passing along just to the north of the international border. A secondary cold front works its way through the area overnight. Winds ease up Wednesday evening as pressure gradient relaxes, and surface ridging starts to work in. Weak ridging expected to end the week, bringing a modest warming trend returning temperatures to around average.
A cold front will spill into the far northeastern corner of New Mexico early Wednesday morning, advancing farther across all of the eastern half of the state through the afternoon. Temperatures will be considerably cooler Wednesday across the eastern plains, but only slightly cooler central and west.
547 PM CST Tue Nov 16 2021 Main challenge is chances for light precipitation across far southeast Kansas ahead of the approaching cold front late tonight, then wind/temperature trends into Wednesday. The associated upper trof axis will sharpen as it moves eastward across the north central conus tonight thru Wednesday. Lift just ahead of the advancing cold front may moisten the lower levels enough to result in patchy drizzle/light rain across southeast Kansas early Wednesday morning. Despite strong drying in the lower levels, there will be a plethora of post-frontal mid/high clouds much of the daylight hours.
517 PM CST Tue Nov 16 2021 (This evening through Wednesday) The main concerns for the short term: strong north winds (35-45 mph gusts), elevated to near critical fire weather conditions (western and west-central Oklahoma and adjacent parts of western north Texas), and high temperatures for tomorrow following the passage of the cold front. Zonal flow at the mid-levels shifts to southwesterly tonight into tomorrow as a trough tracks across southern Canada. The trailing cold front arrives over northwest Oklahoma tonight and is expected to reach central Oklahoma by daybreak. Just prior to daybreak, temperatures will range from the the mid 40s (northwest Oklahoma) to the low 60s (southeast OK).
Early this evening, the highest observed winds are in northwestern ND, where low- to midlevel flow is strongest (e. Current analysis places deep stacked low pressure system over southeastern Saskatchewan. At the surface, cold front is now pushing through eastern North Dakota. For tonight, stacked upper low continues on an eastward track, passing along just to the north of the international border. A secondary cold front works its way through the area overnight. Winds ease up Wednesday evening as pressure gradient relaxes, and surface ridging starts to work in. Weak ridging expected to end the week, bringing a modest warming trend returning temperatures to around average.
Onshore flow will bring areas of morning low clouds and fog with slightly cooler than normal temperatures through the end of the week. Cooler temperatures have arrived with most areas down 10-15 degrees and some as much as 20 degrees cooler. A strong onshore trend with a trough moving through are the cause, which also has brought a return of the marine layer to many coastal locations. Temperatures similar to slightly cooler than today. One difference tomorrow will be the likely development of some light northeast breezes in the mountains and higher valleys as high pressure develops across NV following the trough passage.
Water vapor imagery depicting upper trough circulation over southern portions of Saskatchewan/Manitoba that is inducing downstream ridging that will be over our area to begin the period. Breezy and mild conditions can be expect ahead of this as low level thermal ridge and associated warm air advection set up over the region aided by a southwest LLJ at 40+kts.
222 PM PST Tue Nov 16 2021 Temperatures drop to more typical levels for the rest of the week as a cooler airmass spreads into the Great Basin.
The RAOB information over the Southeastern United States and Florida shows heights have risen due to the ridge shifting eastward. The ridge will expand over the western Atlantic waters late tonight into tomorrow. The high shifting into the Atlantic will strengthen the easterly wind flow over the region and boost the low-level moisture throughout the Keys and southern Florida.
The last of the light showers from a passing cold front have left our region, leaving behind cooler temperatures. Overnight lows tonight in the teen and 20s are anywhere from ten to twenty degrees colder than lows last night, before the cold front passed through.
942 PM EST Tue Nov 16 2021 High pressure will continue to push offshore into the western Atlantic overnight tonight, keeping dry conditions for the local area. Lows tonight are forecast in the mid to upper 50s across much of the area, while locations along the coast from the Cape southward remain in the low 60s. No precipitation expected, as high pressure moves further eastward off of the Southeast coast.
The tranquil weather pattern persists through the weekend with cooler temperatures, periods of breezy winds, and no precipitation. Cloud cover is currently clearing out of the region this afternoon as a weak trough and associated cold front make their way through from the northwest. Daytime temperatures as of now are a few degrees above average, however remain cooler than yesterday's all thanks to the front. Region-wide north to northeast breezes kick in by Wednesday morning as the trough heads towards the east, allowing a ridge to build in from the west.
High pressure over the area will shift inland on Wednesday.
313 PM MST Tue Nov 16 2021 Cold front associated with an upper low moving through Canada will move through the Tri State area between 00z and 06z tonight. The cooler temperatures will keep afternoon minimum relative humidity at around 20 percent, so no fire weather concerns expected, though fuels remain dry and as mentioned north winds will be gusty through the day.
401 PM MST Tue Nov 16 2021 A diffuse cold front is currently working its way through Wyoming. Much lighter winds are forecast for Wednesday with a colder air mass in place and weak ridging aloft.
CDG Chattanooga Airport, TN 49 71 53 65 35 / 0 0 10 70 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 49 71 54 66 32 / 0 0 10 80 20 Oak Ridge, TN 49 69 51 62 30 / 0 0 10 80 20 Tri Cities Airport, TN 44 70 47 65 29 / 0 0 0 80 30.
542 PM CST Tue Nov 16 2021 Subtle ridging aloft has allowed for deep warm air advection to take place over the CWA today as a warm front moves northward through the Middle Mississippi Valley and surface winds veer to be more southerly/southwesterly. This warm November weather will be short lived, as a low pressure system traversing the upper Midwest will swing a cold front across the CWA tomorrow. As the upper-level trough associated with the surface system draws closer, support for precipitation will increase behind the front, leading to post-frontal showers.
The short term period will feature dry conditions, with much cooler temperatures compared to the past few days. A frontal boundary associated with low pressure tracking across south central Canada is currently moving through the eastern part of the CWA, and will be just east of the CWA early this evening. As the low center continues to slowly track eastward tonight and Wednesday, will see a tightening pressure gradient that will keep wind speeds up through the overnight period and through the day Wednesday.
751 PM EST Tue Nov 16 2021 High pressure over the region will move offshore Wednesday.
1205 AM EST Wed Nov 17 2021 High pressure over the Carolinas will shift offshore today.
Ahead of an advancing cold front, pressure gradients tighten resulting in 15-20 mph southerly winds over the CWA. Strong warm air advection coupled with mostly sunny skies for all but some in southern Indiana will drive high temperatures into the low 70s for most. Post-frontal light rain ahead of the upper trough will taper off from west to east Thursday morning. Skies will clear out behind the departing system as the upper trough axis moves to our east Thursday evening. Skies will be mostly clear and winds will be light as high pressure noses in from the Ozarks to the lower Ohio Valley Thursday night. Went on the cool side of guidance with lows mostly in the lower and middle 20s.
Cold front currently pushing south through central Kansas will move into northeastern Oklahoma early this morning and progress southeast during the day. Clearing skies across NE OK/NW AR tonight will allow for near freezing temps by Thursday morning for those areas, though these areas have already had a hard freeze and thus will not need a freeze warning.
310 AM EST Wed Nov 17 2021 Discussion/Marine - Low Pressure Brings Rain Today then Snow Showers Thursday Upper trough amplifying across the Great Lakes region with surface cyclone tracking across the northern Lakes will bring rain along a surface cold front today, with heavier QPF, around a quarter to half inch, across the southern zones. Surface ridging and rising heights should end the snow showers Thursday night.
210 AM EST Wed Nov 17 2021 High pressure over the Carolinas will shift offshore today. A cold front will move through central NC late Thursday night.
The pressure gradient will begin to tighten up a bit as a cold front to our west draws closer, so southwest winds will increase to around 10 mph in many locations and there may be a few higher gusts this afternoon. Tonight will see clouds begin to increase as the cold front crosses the Mississippi River and pushes into middle Tennessee.
350 AM EST Wed Nov 17 2021 High pressure over the Carolinas will shift offshore today. A cold front will move through central NC late Thursday night.
borsum We are consistently getting gusts 50-65 mph across the lower elevations at this time. Wind in the mountains have backed off, so dropped the high wind warnings there. Cyclonic flow aloft will be slowly transitioning to a ridge into Thursday.
The RAOB information over the Southeastern United States and Florida shows heights have risen due to the ridge shifting eastward. The ridge will expand over the western Atlantic waters late tonight into tomorrow. The high shifting into the Atlantic will strengthen the easterly wind flow over the region and boost the low-level moisture throughout the Keys and southern Florida. High pressure will expand over the western Atlantic waters through Thursday.