Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Surface analysis depicts weak high pressure over the Florida peninsula and eastern Gulf of Mexico, south of a stationary front lying inland across the Gulf coastal plains.
The low pressure system along the northern California coast will maintain a mild southerly flow across Utah through Monday. This low pressure will slowly drift east into the Great Basin and bring the potential for widespread precipitation over Utah midweek. The upstream closed low continues to slowly drift south along the NorCal coast this evening. Ahead of this low, Utah remains under a south/southwesterly flow aloft.
359 AM EDT Mon Mar 16 2020 Dry weather will continue today as high pressure slides across the region. Predawn forecast changes included some tweaks to wind and temperature on the wrn ridge slope - i. near LBE as a developing downslope has raised readings a few degrees with the high res model indicating some gusts of near 25 kts given inversion level and reverse shear. Otherwise, dry weather can be expected today as high pressure slides across the area, although insolation will likely be marred by high, and eventual mid-lvl cloudiness.
From Med Lodge to Hays it looks like the clouds will probably stay socked in all day so highs will struggle to get to the low 50s.
Although the accumulating snow has ended, there may still be some mist/freezing drizzle along/south of a Valley City to Park Rapids line through sunrise. After that, the cold front will push through and eliminate that hazard. Current radar shows fairly weak echoes over the FA, mainly along the highway 200 corridor. The BIS and ABR offices have seen some mist/freezing drizzle at their locations earlier, and the highest surface dew point values in our FA are over southeast ND and west central MN.
The back part of a weak upper trough is yet to pass over the southern High Plains later today and will maintain weak upward forcing on top of the cool and damp lower levels. In general, we are seeing strong indications of mid and upper level drying for areas on the Caprock this afternoon and this could even lead to some scouring and erosion of the low clouds, especially near the New Mexico border this afternoon. Over the Rolling Plains, following the increased rain chances this morning and passage of the upper trough, the region will lie nearer to the persistent deep stream of moisture stretching from the Permian Basin northeast into North Texas and Oklahoma. We have generally favored the low side of guidance temperatures today from the central South Plains eastward, with best warming potential near the New Mexico border.
The showers shifting east will be replaced by generally dreary conditions, with low clouds and drizzle continuing due to isentropic lift and saturation in the lower levels.
Meanwhile, surface cold front is currently working through the central Dakotas with a weak mid level vort lobe running roughly along I-90 through South Dakota. Additionally, broad lift ahead of this wave and aided by favorable jet dynamics will allow for a hit or miss freezing drizzle across the broader region with radar indicating one such area currently working into the I-29 corridor. Will continue to monitor impacts from any overnight freezing drizzle. Persistent cloud cover and overall CAA will keep temperatures below normal today and have trended these values toward the lower half of guidance.
Upper trough over the west with upper ridge extending from the Gulf of Mexico into the central CONUS, with troughiness over the NE and Mid Atl coast, providing our forecast area (FA) with a WNW upper flow.
315 AM EDT Mon Mar 16 2020 High pressure will weaken over the Carolinas through tonight, ahead of a weak upper level disturbance that will cross the region early Tue. Another area of high pressure will build across the middle Atlantic and Carolinas Tue night and Wed. A high pressure ridge extends from New York south into the Carolinas. Temperatures will generally be in the 50s, with warmer readings to the east where clouds will scatter out. Rain will approach the region well ahead of a cold front dropping from northwest to southeast.
Backdoor cold front located over se Ga into extreme ne Fl early this morning will continue to shift sw across ne Fl today. Highs will range from the upper 60s along the se Ga coast to the low 70s near the ne Fl coast. Inland areas will see readings from the mid 70s to the lower 80s well inland.
Weak ridging at the surface and alot will build over the TN valley and southern Appalachians tonight, but soundings show abundant low-level moisture from 850 mb and below trapped beneath the inversion. Some breaks in the overcast remain possible since the mid levels are much drier, and with all of the low-level moisture, it will not take much. Diegan Chattanooga Airport, TN 61 53 69 54 73 / 50 80 60 20 50 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 58 53 65 52 73 / 30 80 60 20 40 Oak Ridge, TN 60 53 65 51 73 / 30 80 60 20 40 Tri Cities Airport, TN 57 48 61 46 68 / 30 80 60 10 30.
316 AM CDT Mon Mar 16 2020 Water vapor imagery shows a deep upper low spinning off the northern CA coast. At the surface, lee troughing is in place over eastern CO with broad area of return flow over the Plains. By 12z Thu the robust upper low is expected to be approaching the Four Corners region and will lift into northwest KS/southwest Nebraska during the day Thu. Confidence is high in strong southwest winds Thu with these strong winds flipping around to the northwest Thu night as the low moves off to the northeast.
/issued 326 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2020/ Upper ridging across the southern Gulf of Mexico keeping the storm track to the north of our area today. This boundary producing quite the temperature spread across Mississippi and Louisiana, with temperatures in the lower 50s north of Interstate 20, and low to mid 80s across much of our area. Gulf ridging rather stubbornly hanging in for the next several days. This may be just enough to hold off fog development in this area, and for now, will limit tonight's Fog Advisories to the lower portions of the coastal parishes of Louisiana and adjacent coastal waters. Can't rule out fog further north, but have limited it to the higher probability areas for now.
Low clouds are trapped across the region with temps in the lower to mid 40s. A brief break in the precipitation is expected tonight as weak high pressure settles into the Mid-South tonight. Short term models including Convective Allowing Model Solutions (CAMs) suggest rain will begin to develop across the Lower Mississippi Valley on Monday as the aforementioned front begins to move back north as a warm front.
Today and Tonight) GOES16 water vapor imagery and upper air analysis places a ridge of high pressure across the Gulf of Mexico this morning while an embedded cutoff low continues to remain off the west coast and a northern stream perturbation continues to drop out of central Canada. Closer to our region, this northern stream is allowing the ridge to break down with lowering 500mb heights observed over the past 6 hours. Area radars show rain free conditions with temperatures in the low 40s to near 50 degrees. The higher elevations of the mountains may be able to see a few breaks in cloud cover today if some of the drier air is able to descend far enough.
400 AM EDT Mon Mar 16 2020 High pressure will weaken over the Carolinas through tonight, ahead of a weak upper level disturbance that will cross the region early Tue. Another area of high pressure will build across the middle Atlantic and Carolinas Tue night and Wed. A high pressure ridge extends from New York south into the Carolinas. Temperatures will generally be in the 50s, with warmer readings to the east where clouds will scatter out. Rain will approach the region well ahead of a cold front dropping from northwest to southeast.
Surface analysis suggests cold front near the coast early this morning and will be advancing into the near coastal waters and stalling.
Skies have cleared this evening as high pressure builds into the Inland Northwest.
Temperatures will remain cooler than past days due to weak cool advection.
1044 PM MDT Sun Mar 15 2020 The latest water vapor images and upper-air analysis had a large upper low off the West Coast, southwest flow across the CWA, and a ridge over the southeastern US. A weak cold front had moved into northeastern WY and far northwestern SD, with fog in its wake. Some fog also may occur as cooler air moves in behind the cold front.
With the upper low off the CA coast dropping slowly Swd, the flow will turn more Nly over the Sierra and weaken the orographics there. Then the flow will turn ESEly to Ely as the upper trof rotates around CA and NV. The deep cold, core upper level low is currently sitting of the coast of Cape Mendocino.
408 AM EDT Mon Mar 16 2020 High pressure cresting overhead will move east of the area tonight for fair weather today.
Breezy conditions will become light into Monday as Fraser Outflow eases and high pressure builds into the area. Dry weather is in store for much of the week ahead as high pressure builds offshore and then moves slightly onshore. The week will start off cooler with morning lows below freezing in spots.
801 AM EDT Mon Mar 16 2020 Latest RAP model shows an upper ridge. A weak back door type cold front drifts into north and northeast FL.
526 AM MDT Mon Mar 16 2020 A cold front continues southward across the forecast area early this morning. Tuesday will be mainly dry and warmer as an upper ridge builds to the west, with highs ranging from the lower 40s to lower 50s.
Monday, expect dry conditions throughout the region with light winds and highs ranging in the 20s in north central Montana and the low 40s in parts of the southwest.
526 AM MDT Mon Mar 16 2020 WV/IR imagery loop looks almost identical to previous 24 hrs with a upper low stalled off the northern CA coast and downstream ridge axis from the ID/MT border through west central CO and northern NM. Lowest visibilities ranged from 1/2 to 2SM across much of the NE Panhandle with temperatures around the freezing mark. It will be a bit warmer to the south of the front with upper 40s to low 50s. Models concur on the southeast motion and expansion of the upper low into the Great Basin early this week. This will induce upper ridging along/east of the Front Range with moderating temperatures.
A potent low pressure system will move southward, just off the coast of California today through Tuesday morning. The heaviest precipitation associated with this low pressure system is expected this afternoon and this evening. A secondary atmospheric disturbance will develop in the northeastern quadrant of the aforementioned low pressure system Tuesday afternoon.
The sfc cold front will pass through the region Tuesday, but intrusion of drier air from the west and loss of upper support aloft will keep light rain chances low and spotty. Cold advection will ensue as high pressure builds after FROPA, meaning high temperature will be achieved earlier in the day before its passage.
Otherwise, another warm day expected with a the H5 ridge remaining in close proximity.
Cold front to move into the Oklahoma Panhandles around 18Z today and then slowly tracking south into the southern half of the Texas Panhandle tonight before pushing south of the forecast area by 12Z Tuesday. Upslope surface flow behind the cold front will allow for some decent isentropic lift later tonight and Tuesday which will help to support the development of convection.
Temperatures may be a few degrees cooler than the past few days, but will still be about 10 degrees above normal. A weak short wave rounding the strong high pressure over the Gulf will move through the coast this afternoon. Sea surface temperatures are climbing higher into the low 70s, which will hopefully help inhibit fog from becoming as dense or as widespread as the past few days. Fowler Upper level ridging over the eastern Gulf of Mexico and a strong long wave trough approaching southern CA will maintain a southwest upper flow over Texas. The upper high will strengthen slightly and 500 mb heights over the region will increase to between 584-586 dM.
For the most part Tuesday looks to be quiet, with some weak upper level ridging building across the region.
748 AM CDT Mon Mar 16 2020 Low clouds and ridge/mountain fog continue this morning. Low temperatures tonight and Tuesday night should range in the low/mid 50s.
The showers shifting east will be replaced by generally dreary conditions, with low clouds and drizzle continuing due to isentropic lift and saturation in the lower levels. Overnight Monday night into Tuesday, a cold front begins to surge southward, which should produce enough lift for additional widespread showers. Coincident with the cold front surging south, moisture advection with abnormally high precipitable water amounts will begin surging northward into southern and central Oklahoma.
317 AM MDT Mon Mar 16 2020 Monday, expect dry conditions throughout the region with light winds and highs ranging in the 20s in north central Montana and the low 40s in parts of the southwest.
Deep southwesterly flow aloft will dominate the eastern two-thirds of the nation Tue Night into Wed as a deep longwave trough remains anchored across the western third into the Intermountain West.
401 AM MDT Mon Mar 16 2020 WV/IR imagery loop likes almost identical to previous 24 hrs with a upper low stalled off the northern CA coast and downstream ridge axis from the ID/MT border through west central CO and northern NM. Lowest visibilities ranged from 1/2 to 2SM across much of the NE Panhandle with temperatures around the freezing mark. It will be a bit warmer to the south of the front with upper 40s to low 50s. Models concur on the southeast motion and expansion of the upper low into the Great Basin early this week. This will induce upper ridging along/east of the Front Range with moderating temperatures.
312 AM MDT Mon Mar 16 2020 A cold front continues southward across the forecast area early this morning. Tuesday will be mainly dry and warmer as an upper ridge builds to the west, with highs ranging from the lower 40s to lower 50s.
The southern branch of the upper jet will remain in close proximity to the Midsouth, rounding a robust and persistent subtropical height ridge centered over the Gulf of Mexico.
Fairly widespread valley fog has formed through the valleys of central Idaho, keeping temperatures slightly warmer.
633 AM CDT Mon Mar 16 2020 Water vapor imagery shows a deep upper low spinning off the northern CA coast. At the surface, lee troughing is in place over eastern CO with broad area of return flow over the Plains. By 12z Thu the robust upper low is expected to be approaching the Four Corners region and will lift into northwest KS/southwest Nebraska during the day Thu. Confidence is high in strong southwest winds Thu with these strong winds flipping around to the northwest Thu night as the low moves off to the northeast. By they afternoon the light rain will come to an end but the low clouds will remain keeping the IFR conditions in the region.
644 AM CDT Mon Mar 16 2020 Drizzle and freezing drizzle is ongoing across much of the area, with some showers across far southeastern sections. Thankfully temperatures are hovering at 32 and just above for most locations, keeping freezing drizzle at a minimum. With cloud cover holding strong, have decreased temperatures some, going with the cooler side of guidance.
Late morning into the afternoon, the low clouds and easterly winds of the past few days will continue. Some ascent within the low stratus deck may once again produce some patchy drizzle through the afternoon. With the low clouds, drizzle, and easterly winds, lowered afternoon temperatures by several degrees, keeping highs in the mid to upper 40s. If clouds can remain thick into the afternoon, could see temperatures remain even a bit cooler. Drizzle chances should end overnight as weak ridging builds over the area, though low clouds will remain, keeping temperatures in the 30s again.
With winds becoming southeast and south, temperatures will be warmer today and highs are expected to be in the mid 60s to around 70.
A band of light to moderate snow showers currently extends north to northwestward across portions of the east side, mainly the higher terrain from the Warner Mountains of eastern Modoc County, along the border of Klamath and Lake Counties extending to the vicinity of Crater Lake.
403 AM MDT Mon Mar 16 2020 WV/IR imagery loop looks almost identical to previous 24 hrs with a upper low stalled off the northern CA coast and downstream ridge axis from the ID/MT border through west central CO and northern NM. Lowest visibilities ranged from 1/2 to 2SM across much of the NE Panhandle with temperatures around the freezing mark. It will be a bit warmer to the south of the front with upper 40s to low 50s. Models concur on the southeast motion and expansion of the upper low into the Great Basin early this week. This will induce upper ridging along/east of the Front Range with moderating temperatures.
839 AM MDT Mon Mar 16 2020 Updated grids for fog and freezing drizzle this morning. Expect the freezing drizzle to diminish over the next hour or two. A cold front continues southward across the forecast area early this morning. Tuesday will be mainly dry and warmer as an upper ridge builds to the west, with highs ranging from the lower 40s to lower 50s.
Clouds are expected to linger through the morning before clearing this afternoon as high pressure slides into the northern plains. Cut off low along the California coast will drift southeast over the next few days while broad trof remains over Canada. Ridge between these features will briefly bring a warmer airmass into the state on Tuesday, before another wave drops out of Alaska into the Canadian trof and pushes a cold front south of the border.
313 AM PDT Mon Mar 16 2020 A weakening cold front will bring rain and mountain for this afternoon into tonight.
Temperatures will still be on the cooler side today, but should be back near normal if not slightly above by Tuesday. In general, Tuesday will be quiet, but there will be an increasing chance for snow over the higher terrain. On Tuesday night, the upper low over California begins to move east over the Rockies and Four Corners region.
Deep layer mean ridging remains firmly in place across the region. The low-level ridge is centered just to our north over the Florida Peninsula, while the upper-level ridge is nearly directly overhead. Elsewhere across the cooler waters of the Bayside and Gulf, skies are sunny. Mostly sunny skies can be expected today with temperatures peaking in the lower 80s this afternoon.
It appears that any freezing drizzle and fog concerns are now confined to the James River Valley, where more moisture-rich boundary layer air exists ahead of the front. Quiet weather tonight as high pressure shifts over the region. Southerly return flow on the backside of the high will give us slightly warmer temperatures Tuesday afternoon, with highs likely reaching the 40s south and west of the Missouri River.
933 AM EDT Mon Mar 16 2020 High pressure cresting overhead will move east of the area tonight for fair weather today. A fast moving system will bring rain and snow to the region Tuesday with a few inches of snow in the higher terrain.
502 AM CDT Mon Mar 16 2020 Drizzle and freezing drizzle is ongoing across much of the area, with some showers across far southeastern sections. Thankfully temperatures are hovering at 32 and just above for most locations, keeping freezing drizzle at a minimum. With cloud cover holding strong, have decreased temperatures some, going with the cooler side of guidance.
A cold front should be able to lift rain chances by the end of the week to give the area the best chance of rain of the week. Winds should not be much of an issue the next few days as high pressure continues to influence the area.
Deep closed upper low continues to drift slowly south off the north coast of California. The low will continue to drop southward through Tuesday, and flow will become more northeast to east across the northern Sierra as it does, resulting in weakening orographics and lighter precipitation with time. Band of heavier showers rotating around the low center will likely remain closer to the western edge of the forecast area with time. Generally drier and milder weather is expected by mid-week, but the mountains may see a continuing chance of showers as weaker disturbances drop down from the north as the large trough evolves over the western US.
535 AM CDT Mon Mar 16 2020 12Z Tafs Only ceiling restrictions now are at AEX with 300 ft overcast behind the cold front. Surface analysis suggests cold front near the coast early this morning and will be advancing into the near coastal waters and stalling.
625 AM EDT Mon Mar 16 2020 High pressure cresting overhead will move east of the area tonight for fair weather today. A fast moving system will bring rain and snow to the region Tuesday with a few inches of snow in the higher terrain.
Currently zonal flow is set up across the CONUS, with a robust trough set up off the west coast.
A low pressure system will slowly track south along the Pacific coast. A strong low pressure system and jet stream will provide an opportunity for a few thunderstorms develop across northern Nevada later this afternoon and early evening.
Temps will remain below average in the 20s to low 30s except in the higher terrain in our far western tier where they should see some slightly warmer air move in later in the day.
345 PM CDT Mon Mar 16 2020 High pressure over the Gulf of Mexico will persist for the next couple of days.
It is questionable how much sunshine will break through the low clouds again, but soundings and layer RH suggests some possibility of this.
Upper level low now off the northern California coast and still dropping south, with the main moisture band west of the forecast area. By tonight the low is elongating and moisture over Nevada streams northward into the area for a better chance of showers overnight and on Tuesday.
The sfc cold front will cross the region through the day Tuesday, but intrusion of drier air from the west and loss of upper support aloft will keep light rain chances low and spotty. Weak cold advection will ensue as high pressure builds after FROPA, with resulting in seasonable temperature.
/10/ Upper ridging remains in place across the Gulf of Mexico, extending into much of the Deep South.
1239 PM CDT Mon Mar 16 2020 Water vapor imagery shows a deep upper low spinning off the northern CA coast. At the surface, lee troughing is in place over eastern CO with broad area of return flow over the Plains. By 12z Thu the robust upper low is expected to be approaching the Four Corners region and will lift into northwest KS/southwest Nebraska during the day Thu. Confidence is high in strong southwest winds Thu with these strong winds flipping around to the northwest Thu night as the low moves off to the northeast. A weak cold front will move south across the area tonight with winds backing from the northeast.
Temperatures have warmed into the 30s and 40s most areas and even getting into the low 50s in the lower valleys of central Idaho. There is a chance for patchy freezing fog to develop, but confidence isn't very high because of how dry the air mass is. Also another piece to the forecast will be upper level wave energy rotating counter-clockwise off a cutoff low pressure system over Nevada/southern Idaho into central Idaho and southwest Montana.
The highest reflectivity are located over central SD, where temperatures are hovering around freezing. Freezing is probably occurring in some areas. As the high shifts southeast on Tuesday, the Missouri River valley will see increasing southerly winds. Warmer temperatures will move back into the region on Tuesday with highs the 40s, or slightly below normal for this time of year.
236 PM CDT Mon Mar 16 2020 The low stratus cloud deck cover may thin some tonight across portions of north central Nebraska as somewhat drier air filters into the area behind the cold front. The clouds and moist air will continue to keep temperatures below normal with highs most areas in the lower 40s.