Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Outflow boundary from this convection was near I-57 while main cold front was near the IA/IL border and will track southeast over CWA during tonight. Have smaller chances of convection along and nw of I-55 into this evening until cold front passes by. Highs in the low to mid 80s Saturday (warmest in southeast IL) with WNW winds dropping dewpoints in the upper 50s and lower 60s Sat afternoon (except mid 60s in southeast IL).
Surface map this morning shows an upper low digging into the central California coast. With the low just coming on shore, the h5 pattern has not yet amplified and the pattern across the Midwest is still relatively zonal. High pressure dominates the eastern half of the country. and the ridge axis has slipped to the east, leaving predominantly southerly winds on the back side of the ridge. Have bumped up temps into the low to mid 60s for most of Central IL. Clouds and rain in the overnight will limit the drop in temps, with the lows holding in the mid 40s. Should experience a brief break, but both ECMWF and GFS quick to develop some warm frontal/overrunning precip with the next deeper wave to move across the country.
High pressure remains in control of the weather in the lower Ohio Valley. Another warm, beautiful day will be in store as high pressure marches toward the east coast.
High pressure centered over West Virginia will move off to the east by late tonight.
1135 AM CST Tue Feb 27 2018 An overhead ridging pattern, combined with persistent warm advection, will make for a pleasant morning and afternoon as temps peak in the mid 60s across the area. Chances of precip will then increase once more Wednesday afternoon and evening, as the previously mentioned upper low advects across the region and additional moisture fields increase aloft.
1011 AM MST Tue Feb 27 2018 Southwest flow aloft continues across the region through today and tonight ahead of the progressive broad latitude upper trough that sweeps across the high plains from southern Canada to northern Mexico on Wednesday.
410 PM EST Tue Feb 27 2018 High pressure will drift east tonight.
309 PM CST Tue Feb 27 2018 Our windmaker for tomorrow is still presenting as a closed low over southern CA this afternoon, though, it is showing signs it will be opening as it continues it west-southwestward trek. The lowest RH values will actually be displaced from the highest winds. Once this upper trough passes, a weak front will be dragged through the region and cool NW flow will settle in for the first day of March.
/issued 310 AM EST Tue Feb 27 2018/ At the surface, high pressure in control over the Ohio Valley and into the NE states. The high will shift east over the Carolinas by this afternoon with east flow gradually shifting to the southeast and moisture continuing to increase.
Cooler temperatures will also accompany the storm, especially in it's wake Wednesday and Wednesday night. A return to dry and warmer weather will follow by the end of the week as the storm track retreats northward. This same area will experience critical fire weather conditions, but due to recent rains the fire danger ratings remained in the low to moderate range. A return to dry and warmer weather will follow by the end of the week as the storm track retreats northward. Plenty of cold air with this system with good convection associated with the cold front and above average post-frontal low- top shower activity. A fast moving system with a quick shot of colder air drops temperatures about 15 degrees by Wednesday with many locations near freezing again Wednesday night (including Tucson Metro).
A area of low pressure will gradually move eastward across the Desert Southwest today. The upper level low responsible for this weakening deformation axis will continue to gradually shift eastward and then cross the Desert Southwest through Wednesday afternoon.
There may be a lull time on shower activity this evening across much of the area before showers and storms begin to develop across west Texas and then move eastward to affect the Rio Grande and southern Edwards Plateau area as an upper level low pressure system moves across the CONUS southwest region. As the upper level low pushes to the northeast into the Southern Plains on Wednesday, it weakens and opens. At the surface, a Pacific cold front is forecast to move across the area Wednesday afternoon and evening with chances for rain increasing through that period.
Elswehere it was clear and very cold last night, and today will be sunny under a short wave upper ridge.
201 PM MST Tue Feb 27 2018 Split upper level flow with southern stream closed low over central CA and northern stream trough moving east-southeast into the northern Rockies. The trough to the northwest amplifies over WY and CO by Wednesday morning then slides east into the northern and central Plains Wednesday afternoon. This system will drag a cold front across the CWA Wednesday morning, with gusty west to northwest post-frontal winds along and south of Interstate 80. It will be 5-10 degrees cooler Wednesday afternoon with highs in the 30s to around 40.
1241 PM EST Tue Feb 27 2018 A ridge of high pressure will crest over the region this afternoon. Weak low pressure will track just north of Maine tonight. Another low pressure system will move into the area Wednesday night. There will be more cloudiness tomorrow with H925 moisture north and a stalled cold front in southern zones. Hi temps tdy will cont mild, but a few deg cooler than ystdy while temps tngt will be kept a few deg milder then this current ngt due cld cvr, precip, and weak llvl warm advcn. A large area of high pressure will be anchored along the east coast Wednesday as weak waves of low pressure slide across our area in the westerlies north of the high. The low will continue east Wednesday night allowing snow and rain to taper off.
The low level jet should strengthen tonight over the Coastal Plains.
246 PM CST Tue Feb 27 2018 Widespread showers with isolated thunderstorms have developed and are currently shifting northeast across the flash flood watch area as a warm front lifts north. On Wednesday severe weather and flooding risk increases as lower and mid-level flow becomes parallel with weak surface boundary and instability increases across the region ahead of approaching cold front.
A wedge of high pressure to our northwest is causing MVFR-IFR cigs to hang in today across SW GA and NE FL. A ridge of high pressure stretches along the Appalachian mountains, with northeasterly flow bringing Atlantic moisture down the east side of the cool mountain range, and a deck of low clouds advancing into our southwest GA counties, possibly into southeast AL and north FL later this morning/afternoon.
Temperatures already early this morning are much warmer than normal for this time of year. The upper ridge crest will shift to the east today while increasing south- southwest low level flow results in good WAA. The cutoff upper low currently over the California coast will have moved into Arizona by Wednesday morning and is forecast to weaken into an open wave as it heads east. Lingering showers Wednesday morning should diminish as the low level jet continues veering to the west and warm advection decreases.
Early morning radar imagery shows isolated to scattered showers are developing across the coastal plains into the Highway 90 corridor.
1045 AM MST Tue Feb 27 2018 Snowfall seems to have ended across Far Western Wyoming early this morning now that the Pacific trough has exited off to the east. A cloud deck between 4 and 5k ft will likely occasionally produce a broken cig today and tonight along with some flurries as the west flow continues off the Pacific through a flat ridge.
Also, increased cloud cover across the entire Northern Rockies will keep overnight temperatures a bit warmer than last night.
Looking at model soundings, precipitation should start off as a little rain but as the column slowly cools a transition to a bit of freezing rain or snow is likely. Gradual clearing is then expected Wednesday as high pressure ridges down from the north. Temperatures will be cooler than today but still mild for the last day of February with highs ranging from the upper 30s north to near 50 southeast.
1001 AM MST Tue Feb 27 2018 Another mild and dry day is in store for the entire forecast area as we watch with patience a strengthening upper level low rolling south southeast down the west coast like a bowling ball. The good news is that temps are expected to stay on the warmer side of normal through these short-term frames. There is a very low probability of a spare since this Left Coast trough is dug so deep that the subtropical atmospheric river has been pushed well to the south.
Today Through Wednesday Night High pressure at the surface is now well east of the state this morning, centered over portions of West Virginia. With a warm front south of the state and lift associated with the wave aloft, widespread rain will develop and make its way over the state.
Southwest flow aloft continues across the region through today and tonight ahead of the progressive broad latitude upper trough that sweeps across the high plains from southern Canada to northern Mexico on Wednesday.
235 PM MST Tue Feb 27 2018 Current surface analysis shows cold front well south and east of the area, with high pressure centered to the northeast of the region. Upper level analysis shows near zonal flow across the northern US, with low pressure located across southern CA.
149 PM EST Tue Feb 27 2018 High pressure continues dry and fair weather through this evening.
134 PM EST Tue Feb 27 2018 High pressure will drift east tonight.
A cold front will surge quickly south during the evening and overnight hours. Winds will likely be stronger behind the this cold front than those expected behind the dryline. With confidence on the low side for stronger winds behind the dryline, no fire weather watches will be issued with this forecast package.
The weak cold front is nearly through the forecast area with high pressure building into the region. High pressure today, weak mixing, and a cooler airmass will lead to cooler temperatures today compared to yesterday.
High pressure moves to the east and southerly flow develops tonight ahead of the next low pressure system. Could be breezy at times across the higher elevations of the mountains with 850mb winds of 30-40 kt, but wind expected to remain below advisory criteria on Wednesday. While moisture will be sufficient for periods of moderate to heavy rain during the afternoon, best forcing and lift will arrive on Wednesday night as the trough axis approaches the forecast area.
1230 PM EST Tue Feb 27 2018 High pressure will bring mostly clear skies today along with south winds around 10 mph.
As this high pressure began to move across the area early this morning, drier northerly winds have limited any fog potential. Forecast highs will be cooler than yesterday, with highs mainly in the 30s. NAM solutions continue to show some freezing drizzle over northwest Iowa after 06Z. On Wednesday and Wednesday night, an unphased northern stream trough drives ahead of the southern stream which will limit a deep moisture supply. Introduced a small chance for light freezing drizzle across northwest IA on Wednesday morning. However, what is bothersome is there is an inverted trough in the 900-850mb layer in northwest IA coupled with lift in the same layer. With the GFS showing a more shallow moisture sounding, did not want to hit the freezing drizzle very hard but a heads up that it may occur.
314 PM EST Tue Feb 27 2018 High pressure continues dry and fair weather through this evening.
232 PM EST Tue Feb 27 2018 Mid/upper level high pressure will remain over the the southwestern Gulf of Mexico through Wednesday with west to northwest flow aloft. At the surface, a weak frontal boundary was located across south Florida, with high pressure along the coast of VA/NC. Temperatures were cooler across much of the region in the 60s to lower 70s. A coastal trough will develop tonight and a few showers are possible across Flagler County into southern St Johns.
As the high moves east, southwest flow will push moisture into the region and combine with an upper level disturbance to bring a round of scattered showers on Wednesday.
/issued 1118 AM CST Tue Feb 27 2018/ High pressure is in control across the Mid-South for the time being. At the surface, a warm front will lift north across the Mid-South tonight. Meanwhile, the warm front is expected to stall somewhere in the vicinity of the I-40 corridor. At the surface, a low pressure system will organize near the Oklahoma and Kansas border.
While all models agree that a warm front will move north across the CWA Wednesday/Wednesday night, the issue is where the front will stall. NAM pushes the warm front into TN/NC keeping the heaviest rainfall north of the CWA.
The movement of the high will also help to move away the moisture associated with the weakening frontal boundary. The mid-level ridge will still be in place and will continue to have a similar influence on our weather.
/issued 314 AM CST Tue Feb 27 2018/ Southwesterly upper level winds and surface lee troughing will continue through today ahead of the approaching trough to the west. Southerly surface winds over South Texas will bring moisture up from the Gulf around the back side of the high over the southeast as it moves off the east coast. The closed upper low over Southern California will continue to dig south today before it opens up as it moves across Arizona and New Mexico. As the upper trough moves across Wednesday night the cold front will push through with winds decreasing and shifting to the north.
An impulse embedded in the southwesterly flow ahead of the approaching trough will spread elevated convection across North and Central Texas Wednesday morning. The dryline will push through the region Wednesday evening with a cold front close on its tail. Cooler but sunnier weather will follow on the first day of March.
Wed night through Sat) Zonal flow to start will translate to short wave ridging later Thu into Fri. Dry and relatively mild weather will be the result during this time, with high temperatures near freezing Thu and a little better than that on Fri. We'll observe a transition to more southwest flow aloft during Fri into Sat as longwave trough crashes the west coast of the United States. Major guidance suggests a Colorado low with associated inve rted trough structure developing over the heart of the Red River Valley.
Upper low over Arizona early Wednesday morning will move east across the Southern Rockies as an open wave during the day. A Pacific cold front will surge east across the area late Wednesday morning and afternoon.
1207 PM CST Tue Feb 27 2018 See Aviation Stratus along with isolated TSRA will be the main issues across most of our terminals through the afternoon, maintaining variable IFR to the lower end of MVFR conditions. A cold front will surge quickly south during the evening and overnight hours. Winds will likely be stronger behind the this cold front than those expected behind the dryline. With confidence on the low side for stronger winds behind the dryline, no fire weather watches will be issued with this forecast package.
1242 PM EST Tue Feb 27 2018 High pressure will provide mild and dry weather through tonight.
A cold front will be moving through the region after 06Z as well with winds shifting from the SW at 5-15KTS to the W to NW at all terminals by about 12Z and increase to 15-25G35KTS by end of TAF period. Surface pressure falls ahead of a strong upper level system over CA will continue to induce lee troughing across the area. The upper trough moves closer and becomes positively tilted as we head into early Wednesday.
Cold front hangs up across the northern portions of the forecast area through the day Wednesday before finally surging south across the remainder of the Panhandles by Wednesday evening.
A weak cold front extended from near Wayne through Broken Bow and Imperial. A weak northern stream trough will move across the Dakotas into Minnesota today. This will bring a weak cold front through most of Nebraska by 12z this morning, and all except far southeast Nebraska by late afternoon. For tonight, another weak northern stream trough will move into eastern Montana and eastern Wyoming, pushing another weak front through the Black hills and into the far northwest Sandhills late tonight. Dry conditions and mild temperatures are expected for the middle of this week, as west southwest flow aloft dominates across the central plains downstream of upper level low pressure that will be moving across the desert southwest.
A combination of warm air advection behind a warm front stretching from SGR to GLS and heating with breaks in the clouds may result in isolated SHRA near the terminals this afternoon. A warm front located over the southwestern nearshore Gulf waters is forecast to advance northeastward through the day. Slight evening rain chances with the exiting warm front with overcast skies keeping many in the upper 60s come Wednesday sunrise.
A transient mid/upper level ridge is pushing south of the area this morning. Weak impulses are riding over the back side of the ridge, and will cross the area late this morning and afternoon. Temperatures will rebound from some very cold readings this morning (-16 at Seneca, -10 at Meacham), with highs this afternoon in the mid/upper 40s for the lower elevations and mainly 30s for the mountains. Mid/high clouds will stream southeastward across the lower Columbia Basin TAF sites and northern Blue Mountains today.
313 PM CST Tue Feb 27 2018 Main concern in the short term periods is the threat for stratus, some potentially dense fog, along with a chance for freezing drizzle in some locations tonight into tomorrow. By this evening, the lowest 1500-2000 feet look to be saturated, putting all three potentially into play, particularly stratus and fog. Stratus is expected to linger through much of the day Wednesday until the next wave helps to dry out the lower levels a bit. That next wave arrives Wednesday night and it continues to look like it will not bring much notable weather to our CWA, aside from continuing chances for freezing drizzle and flurries in northwest Iowa.
1211 PM EST Tue Feb 27 2018 High pressure over the Ohio Valley will move off the mid Atlantic Coast by late Wednesday. A weak cold front will sag south across the lower Great Lakes on Wednesday.
1118 AM CST Tue Feb 27 2018 High pressure is in control across the Mid-South for the time being. At the surface, a warm front will lift north across the Mid-South tonight. Meanwhile, the warm front is expected to stall somewhere in the vicinity of the I-40 corridor. At the surface, a low pressure system will organize near the Oklahoma and Kansas border.
Low clouds will begin to increase later this afternoon/tonight with model soundings indicating a deepening low/mid level saturated layer as the cold front sinks across the area. With sufficient lift in the saturated layer, a period of some drizzle or light rain is possible tonight, in addition to the low stratus or areas of fog. On Wednesday, the post frontal airmass is only slightly cooler, but NAM/GFS soundings indicate low-level moisture/clouds hanging across much of the area through the day, keeping temps several degrees colder than today.
108 PM EST Tue Feb 27 2018 High pressure over the region will move off the coast Wednesday morning. A weak warm front moving north through the region Wednesday will provide a chance of light rain.
Some of the lower elevation and river valley locations bottomed out colder than expected, especially in the Malta area. BMickelson Previous discussion: Weak high pressure over eastern Montana this morning with some patchy fog and frost around the region. Mild weather continues through midweek with split upper trof over the west today moving east and ridge building ahead of next strong upper low dropping into the Pacific Northwest. Sunshine and warmer temperatures resulting a some snowmelt over the next few days, so patchy fog will be an ongoing concern. Stacked low pressure system expected to move through the northern Rockies over the weekend.
or warmer in the south. The ECMWF and GFS hit at least 50 all the way north to the Madison area, while the NAM and Canadian would be in the low to mid 40s that far north. Cooler temps do look likely near Lake Michigan as northeast winds develop.
1016 AM MST Tue Feb 27 2018 Upper level analysis has broad ridging across much of the area with a closed low over southern California. At the surface, weak cold front is draped across the southern part of South Dakota, with high pressure over eastern Montana. The trof and upper low to the west will track east across the southern Plains and southeast US mid to late week. Northern stream flow over our region will remain near zonal and mainly dry, with some ridging moving across our area later in the week. Surface cold front will continue to drop south through the area this morning as high pressure slowly shifts east across northern SD.
Dewpoints are in the low to mid 60s. At 500 mb the persistent Gulf of Mexico ridge is building back over the central Gulf Coast.
Moisture advection with sfc dew points reaching the low/mid 50s by late tonight along with lift will produce showers and some thunder with mucapes 200-300 j/kg. Precip, or at least more widespread precip, will occur close to and just north of the low and also (especially) to our south from the Arklatex into TN where they certainly don't need it.
Temperatures will be mainly in the low to mid 30s for highs, a bit warmer in the western foothills. The main trough axis is moving east leaving much of the area in northwest flow today. Temperatures today will be in the low to mid 30s. Tomorrow some weak ridging will build to the west of the area which will begin to shift the flow more westerly.
Our main concern for Wed in the potential for windy-very windy conditions as the strong trough moves very near the area and an assocd Pacific cold front surges hard east.
/issued 338 AM CST Tue Feb 27 2018/ The heat and humidity will be back in the area as a warm front lifts out of the gulf today. The main areas of rain will slide north of the area into northern Louisiana, Arkansas and Mississippi where the warm frontal boundary will become stationary.
SHORT TERM: Warm temperatures Tuesday ahead of an upper level trough and an approaching front.
104 PM EDT Mon Apr 9 2018 High pressure ridging southward from Canada will direct weakening low pressure south of the Ohio River Valley today. Another weakening upper level trough will cross the area on Tuesday.
201 PM CDT Mon Apr 9 2018 West to northwest flow aloft will prevail through Tuesday night as an upper level trough moves east across the northern United States. A cold front is currently heading toward the Big Bend and should track into northern Mexico this evening. The flow aloft will also allow another dry reinforcing cold front to move through the forecast area later tonight.
539 PM CDT Mon Apr 9 2018 Another cold front was shifting across southern Missouri this afternoon in response to an approaching upper level disturbance.
1216 PM CDT Mon Apr 9 2018 Satl imagery this morning revealing an upper ridge situated along the west coast with a broad trof over the cntrl/ern CONUS. Dry conditions and a warming trend is still on tap the next severals days in part to aforementioned wrn CONUS upper ridge building in.
Weak high pressure across the Carolinas will weaken as a boundary to the south tries to lift north into far southern GA tonight. Meanwhile, a positively tilted mid level trough will dig south and east tonight through Tuesday. High pressure will continue to build into the region through Tuesday night.
Cooler air will filter into the area, and expect lows to range from the lower 40s across the north to mid 50s in the southeast.
This trend would inhibit a widespread frost and mins much below freezing. Current thinking is the lows will be in the 32-33F range with patchy frost. The high pressure system will shift to the east on Tuesday resulting in backing flow and the onset of weak WAA. Temperatures for the majority of the area (sans southeast MO and southern IL) will be warmer than today with most locations seeing highs in the 50s.