Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
COOLER AIR ALOFT FROM AN UPPER TROF ADVANCING THROUGH THE RED RIVER VALLEY INTO THE ARKLATEX WILL HELP TO EVEN FURTHER DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WHILE DEEP LAYER SHEAR ALSO INCREASES. THE THREAT WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST AS THIS UPPER TROF SHIFTS TO THE NE.
ONE EFFECT THIS SYSTEM IS CAUSING FOR US IS THE LOW TO MID LEVEL WINDS BEING DRAWN FROM THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST.
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT BROUGHT HISTORIC RAINS OVER PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY THIS PAST WEEK WILL CONTINUE TO DEAMPLIFY AS IT LIFTS NORTH INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. IN ADVANCE OF A COMPACT UPPER LOW CROSSING THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. WITH A LULL UNTIL THE ARRIVAL OF THE COMPACT UPPER LOW MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE MID/UPPER SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO LIFT EAST-NORTHEAST FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ACROSS VA/NORTHERN NC MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EXPECT THE HIGHEST POP IN THE WEST AND NORTH, DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING (70 PERCENT), WITH 50 POP IN THE SE.
The thermal ridge is a bit slower and does not arrive until after well after sunset Monday evening, keeping the highest readings west of the forecast area, but still expecting a very pleasant, late-spring-like day for the forecast area.
As of mid-afternoon, a surface analysis showed a warm front north of the area across central Indiana and Ohio. Some lingering showers are possible across the Bluegrass region early Monday evening, then high pressure is expected to move in from the west.
UPPER LOW THAT WAS OVER NORTHWEST AZ 24 HOURS AGO WAS MOVING EAST ACROSS THE TX/OK PANHANDLES. THE MORE IMPORTANT FEATURE THAT WILL IMPACT OUR WEATHER WAS AN INTENSE NORTHEAST PACIFIC UPPER LOW WITH A FAST JET STREAM ADVECTING COPIOUS MOISTURE ACROSS CA/WA/OR AND GREAT BASIN. LARGE SCALE LIFT AND STRONG OROGRAPHIC LIFT ON WINDWARD SIDE OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL INCREASE THE SNOWFALL INTENSITY. IT WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES COOLER WEST WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT.
This area can expect a slight chance for rain showers tonight as an upper level trough moves through the region.
230 PM EDT SUN MAR 13 2016 WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES AND A SURFACE WARM FRONT PUSH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS AND GLOBAL MODELS ARE ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE WEAK COLD FRONT THAT IS DRIVING THE SYSTEM IS STALLING OUT. WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 70S ALONG THE COAST TO THE LOW TO MID 80S OVER THE INTERIOR.
AS ONE WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSHES NORTH OUT OF THE AREA.
THOUGH WILL HANG ON TO SLIGHT CHANCE AS ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND PERSISTENT WEAK LIFT FROM SLOW MOVING UPPER TROUGH WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED THREAT OF FOG AND DRIZZLE. WITH SHIFT TO MORE WESTERLY FLOW EXPECTED TO BRING DRYING/CLEARING OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. BUT STILL MILD IN THE LOWER 40S. TO LOWER 70S THROUGH THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY INTO THE LOWER MO RIVER CORRIDOR. BY MONDAY NIGHT AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO DEEPEN OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AS A SURFACE BOUNDARY SWINGS ACROSS OUR AREA. THIS WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE LOWER MO RIVER VALLEY AND NORTHWESTERN IOWA ON MONDAY NIGHT.
135 PM EDT SUN MAR 13 2016 LOW PRESSURE OVER MISSOURI THIS MORNING WILL LIFT NORTHEAST TO MICHIGAN TONIGHT CAUSING SHOWERS ACROSS OUR AREA. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S NORTH TO THE UPPER 50S SOUTH, WITH LOWS TONIGHT RANGING FROM THE LOWER 40S NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN TO THE MID 50S SOUTH OF ROUTE 24. VORT MAX ASSOCIATED WITH OPENING UP CUT-OFF LOW INDICATED BY WATER VAPOR LOOP LIFTING NE ACROSS NE ARK THIS MORNING. THE MOST WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE OHIO VALLEY SHOULD SPREAD NORTH ACROSS OUR CWA TODAY AS THE LOW/WARM FRONT APPROACHES. COOLER AIR NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT SHOULD BE ENHANCED TODAY BY FLOW AROUND HIGH PRESSURE MOVG SE INTO SRN QUEBEC. THE REMNANTS OF A LARGE UPPER LOW WERE BEING INGESTED INTO A SERIES OF SHORT WAVE TROFS MOVING EAST ACROSS THE CONUS.
NEARLY ALL OF THE CWA HAS HELD IN THE LOWER 50S THIS AFTERNOON. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD EVENTUALLY FALL A FEW DEGREES TO THE LOWER TO MID 40S NORTHEAST TO UPPER 40S SOUTHWEST. I AM MORE COMFORTABLE ON THE LOWER END OF GUIDANCE.
THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO ARKANSAS THIS EVENING AND LIFT OUT TO THE NORTHEAST.
1107 AM MDT SUN MAR 13 2016 H5 HAND ANALYSIS AT 13/00Z SHOWS AN UPPER LOW SWINGING TOWARD THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS WHILE THE MORE SIGNIFICANT PLAYER IS UPSTREAM OFF THE LEFT COAST OF CANADA. THE HIGH LATITUDES APPEAR TO BE IN A HIGHLY BLOCKED PATTERN WITH AN EXPANSIVE LOW ANCHORED OVER THE ARCTIC. THE PROBABILITY OF WIND HEADLINES ARE INCREASING AND THE WIND WILL CREATE SOME PROBLEMS WITH SNOW FALLING IN THE HIGH COUNTRY AND POSSIBLY DUST IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WHICH HAVE HAD TIME TO DRY OUT.
349 PM CDT SUN MAR 13 2016 (Tonight and Monday) Compact upper low is moving east into southeastern Oklahoma this afternoon. With downsloping low- level westerly wind component and 850mb thermal ridge building just to our west, high temperatures will be rather warm and going with mid to upper 80s for our area.
/ISSUED 341 AM CDT SUN MAR 13 2016/ THE UPPER LOW WHICH PROVIDED SEVERAL DAYS OF RAIN ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS HAS QUICKLY EXITED THE REGION TO THE NORTHEAST AS A SECOND SYSTEM WORKS ITS WAY EAST ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE AS THE UPPER LOW TRAVERSES THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
A DEEPENING TROUGH WITH A STRONG MID-UPPER JET AT ITS BASE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES ON MONDAY AND WILL FORCE LEE CYCLOGENESIS. WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS SOUTH OF THE LOW ACROSS THE PANHANDLES WILL RESULT IN EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH MOST LOCATIONS REACHING OR EXCEEDING 80 DEGREES DURING THE AFTERNOON.
The heaviest snow is still expected to fall this evening as main cold front approaches with another 6 to 12 inches or so near the crest and west of Hwy 89 with lesser amounts elsewhere as shadowing continues to limit precipitation farther to the east.
THE HIGH RESOLUTION SHORT RANGE MODELS (HRRR AND LOCAL WRF MODELS) ARE SHOWING A MUCH SLOWER PROGRESSION THROUGH THE AREA.
WITH A LULL UNTIL THE ARRIVAL OF THE COMPACT UPPER LOW MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
THE TRACK OF THE LOW IS MOVING ONTO THE OLYMPIC PENINSULA AND IS BEING HANDLED VERY WELL BY THE NAM12 AT THIS TIME.
604 PM EDT SUN MAR 13 2016 LOW PRESSURE WILL BE LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH MONDAY. PRESSURE TROUGHS ROTATING AROUND THE LOW WILL BE IN THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING AND AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
OR EVEN A STRAY THUNDERSTORM A HEAD OF DYING SFC TROF. ON MONDAY IT WILL LIKELY TAKE A WHILE BEFORE THE LOW CLOUDS IN THE EAST MIX OUT AND ALLOW SOME SUN TO GET THROUGH. HOWEVER IT DOES APPEAR THAT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE COTEAU MAY BE THE MAIN AREA OF DEVELOPMENT IF UPSLOPE FLOW DOES INDEED DEVELOP.
THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO WEAKEN TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA. AS THE UPPER LOW PULLS AWAY AND ALLOWS SOME DRIER AIR TO MOVE IN. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE LOW 80S INLAND TO MID/UPPER 70S ALONG THE COAST.
THE FIRST ASSOCIATED WITH A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM. A SECOND BUT WEAKENING TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL SLIDE OVER THE STATE LATER MONDAY. COOLER BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY INTO MONDAY.
LOW PRESSURE WILL BE LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH MONDAY. PRESSURE TROUGHS ROTATING AROUND THE LOW WILL BE IN THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING AND AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
AN IMPRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS ANALYZED ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL OK WITH A MID-LEVEL WESTERLY JET MAX PUNCHING INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL ARKANSAS. WITH A NOTABLE WIND SHIFT/PSEUDO WARM FRONT ALONG A LINE FROM ADF TO LLQ.
EXPECT WARM AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH MIDWEEK AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S.
302 PM CDT SUN MAR 13 2016 Upper low over srn OK at 1945z will move east, and be over nrn AR by 06z. With the approach of the upper low, will continue with our increasing chance of shra/tsra this evening, moving east across the area through the overnight.
Areas of enhanced ascent in conjunction with more focused isentropic upslope flow in the low levels and potential vorticity advection aloft have been producing showers in central and western KS. Then may have a relative lull in the precipitation late morning (although scattered showers remain possible), with additional showers and storms then moving from southern into east central KS ahead of the stronger short wave trough. The low levels will be rather dry in the wake of the earlier wave, and soundings show deep boundary layer mixing during the day Monday.
LOW PRESSURE ADVANCING ACROSS ARKANSAS THIS EVENING WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY WEAK TROFFING EXTENDING SOUTH THAT WILL ADVANCE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. MOISTURE LIMITED TO JUST THE LOW LEVELS WILL RESULT IN FEATURE MOVING THROUGH WITH NO RAINS. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO ARKANSAS THIS EVENING AND LIFT OUT TO THE NORTHEAST.
TEMPS SHOULD TOP OUT MAINLY IN THE LOWER OR MID 60S. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND NEB TODAY. THIS WARMING AIR MASS COUPLED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 50S WILL PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAKLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT BY AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPE VALUES OF A FEW HUNDRED J/KG.
FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC STRETCHING WEST ACROSS THE EAST AND CENTRAL GULF WEAKENS SLIGHTLY THROUGH MIDDAY MON THEN REBUILDS TO THE WEST AND NORTH LATE IN THE DAY. AS FOR TEMPS WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE WARMER MOS GUIDANCE THROUGH TONIGHT DUE TO BETTER MIXING EARLY MON MORNING AND THE WARMER MOS GUIDANCE ON MON MOSTLY DUE TO BETTER CONSISTENCY WITH SURROUNDING WFOS. COOLER TEMPS WILL BE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST ON MON WITH THE MODERATE SW FLOW AND COOLER NEAR SHORE WATER TEMPS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 50S WELL INLAND AND THE LOWER 60S CLOSER TO THE COAST.
240 PM MST SUN MAR 13 2016 AFTER MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES.
The fast-moving upper low/trof presently centered through western TX will continue race eastward ejecting a negatively tilted low- amplitude short wave trof from the lower MS Valley northeastward. Large scale ascent associated with the lifting short wave trof should allow the more continuous precipitation over far SE MO and southern IL to expand to the west during the morning, with the entire quasi-deformation zone shield of precipitation exiting to the northeast by early afternoon. In its wake, precipitation should become more patchy/scattered with an upswing in coverage during the late afternoon through central and northeast MO in response to ascent associated with the aforementioned "kicker" upper low/trof. Showers will then spread eastward across the area this evening as the system races across the lower MS Valley.
325 PM CDT SUN MAR 13 2016 WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A TIGHTLY WOUND UPPER LOW BETWEEN OKLAHOMA CITY AND MCALESTER MOVING EAST TOWARDS NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. THIS LOW MAY EVEN PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FANNIN OR LAMAR COUNTY.
606 PM EDT SUN MAR 13 2016 LOW PRESSURE WILL BE LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH MONDAY. PRESSURE TROUGHS ROTATING AROUND THE LOW WILL BE IN THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING AND AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
330 PM EDT SUN MAR 13 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND WILL BEGIN TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST INTO THE MARITIMES MONDAY.
INTO THE LOWER 70S. AS AN AREA LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHWEST OF THE AREA. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE OK/TX REGION WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA TONIGHT.
THE LOW- LEVEL AIRMASS HAS DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO THE MID-40S TO LOW-50S AROUND OUR FOG PRONE AREAS THIS EVENING BEFORE REBOUNDING A BIT LATE TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW-50S ACROSS THE NORTHERN BRUSH COUNTRY TO MID-60S ALONG THE COAST. NONE-THE- LESS TRENDED TOWARDS THE WARMER GUIDANCE FOR DAYTIME HIGHS ON MONDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE WARMER WITH THE LACK OF BETTER RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS.
WE FAVORED THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPS AND THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPS.
WHICH WILL ALLOW US TO BECOME QUITE UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER TROF ACROSS THE RED RIVER VALLEY OF N TX/S OK. THIS THREAT WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AS THE UPPER TROF RAPIDLY SHIFTS EWD. /ISSUED 644 AM CDT SUN MAR 13 2016/ SOUTH WINDS TO INCREASE TO 15 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS TODAY AHEAD OF AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.
559 PM EDT SUN MAR 13 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND WILL BEGIN TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST INTO THE MARITIMES MONDAY.
WEAK TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL RESULT IN ADDITIONAL FOG DEVELOPMENT AFTER SUNSET. AS THE WAVE/TROUGH DRIFTING EAST BY MORNING. LOWS WILL BE MILD AGAIN WITH OVERNIGHT READINGS IN THE MID 40S NORTHEAST TO THE LOWER 50S SOUTH/SOUTHWEST.
DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS WILL TAKE HOLD MID TO LATE WEEK AS A RIDGE BUILDS ALONG THE WEST COAST. RESULTING IN GUSTY WINDS FOR THE MOUNTAIN RIDGES AND DESERT SLOPES THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
THE WEATHER FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK WILL BE DOMINATED BY AN ELONGATED UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST WHICH WILL SEND A SERIES OF DRY SHORT- WAVES THROUGH OKLAHOMA.
THE LOW CEILINGS AND FOG FROM THIS MORNING HAVE MIXED OUT. NORTH WINDS BEHIND THE LATEST COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BECOME GUSTY THIS MORNING AND THEN DIMINISH LATE THIS AFTERNOON. /ISSUED 454 AM CDT SUN MAR 13 2016/ CLOSED UPPER LOW TO QUICKLY EJECT EASTWARD OUT OF THE PANHANDLES BY 18Z TODAY. ANY CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW WILL ALSO EXIT THE FORECAST AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON.
AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW PASSES TO THE EAST OF THE BIG RIVER LATER TODAY. OPEN WAVE THAT ORIGINALLY WAS THE CLOSED LOW IN EASTERN TX WAS LIFTING NORTHWARD INTO MO AND WAS ENHANCING THE SHOWERS ACROSS THE DVN CWA. ANOTHER UPPER LOW WAS LOCATED IN THE TX PANHANDLE AND WAS MOVING EAST. WHILE THE UPPER LOW IN TX PUSHES ACROSS OK AND INTO NW ARKANSAS BY THIS EVENING. WE WILL CONTINUE WITH LIKELY POPS THIS EVENING ESPECIALLY AS THE STORM SYSTEM SHIFTS INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY.
Showers will be on the increase this afternoon and early evening ahead of another cold front that will pass through the region this evening. - Snow lowering to the higher valleys of southwest Montana overnight producing possible slick conditions (1 to 2 inches of snow) during the Monday morning commute. Though only light accumulations are expected down to the lower valley floors, some of the foothills and benches could receive locally up to an inch, which could impact the morning commute.
MID-LVL TROUGH WILL PIVOT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS DURING THE SECOND HALF OF MONDAY. GFS/NAM INDICATE GROWING INSTABILITY ALONG AN ADVANCING WARM FRONT MOVING INTO SW MN AND NW IOWA IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAIN UPPER TROUGH IS STILL WELL TO THE SOUTH. WITH THE EAST STAYING IN THE LOW 50S EVEN WITH A VERY MILD START BUT SOME LOW 60S POSSIBLE IN THE WEST.
The highest gusts (to near 30 knots) will be at KSJT. /issued 355 AM CDT SUN MAR 13 2016/ (Today and Tonight) An upper low over the southern Panhandle this morning and will continue to track east over Oklahoma and Arkansas by tonight. At the surface, a closed low will move east along the Red river today with an associated dry Pacific cold front moving east through the forecast area. Even with the passage of the Pacific cold front, abundant sunshine and down- sloping surface winds will result in afternoon temperatures around 10 degrees warmer than yesterday with most areas seeing highs around 80 degrees. Clear skies tonight coupled with light winds will result in cooler post-frontal temperatures in the mid 40s to around 50 degrees.
THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT 20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD LOW NEAR KABR WITH COOL FRONT/TROUGH INTO WESTERN KS. SPINNING THROUGH UPPER TROUGH IN PLACE OVER FAR WESTERN CANADA/NORTHWEST US. SYSTEM MARCHES EAST DURING THE DAY WITH AROUND 250J/KG SBCAPE DEVELOPING ALONG COLD FRONT BY AFTERNOON.
555 PM EDT SUN MAR 13 2016 LOW PRESSURE WILL BE LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH MONDAY. PRESSURE TROUGHS ROTATING AROUND THE LOW WILL BE IN THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING AND AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
249 PM CDT SUN MAR 13 2016 Closed upper low spinning over central Oklahoma this afternoon will send scattered showers into the area through the evening. This activity will gradually clear out overnight as heating is lost and the upper low kicks out into the Lower Ohio Valley. 850 hPa winds rising as high as 15C should allow temperatures to rise into the lower to middle 70s across the area, assuming any morning clouds can scatter out in time.
CLOUDINESS CONTINUES TO ERODE OVER THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS WHILE RESPLENDENT SUNSHINE HAS BEEN COVERING THE LOWER KEYS. A BROADENING WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE IS ALIGNED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. WINDS ARE MOSTLY SOUTH AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH THE HIGHEST WINDS ON THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND IN AND AROUND DRY TORTUGAS.
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION THIS EVENING AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PULLS OUT OF THE AREA. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL SWING THROUGH ON MONDAY.
TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT CURRENT SURFACE MAP PLACES WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST TODAY.
528 PM EDT SUN MAR 13 2016 WARM TEMPERATURES WITH PERIODIC SHOWER CHANCES ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK WITH A SERIES OF CROSSING LOW PRESSURE AREAS. RESULTING IN UPPER RIDGING INCREASING OVER OUR AREA.
/issued 429 AM CDT SUN MAR 13 2016/ Upper low moving over the Panhandle early this morning has only brought wind to parts of the area. A flat ridge builds in behind this low but will give way to weak troughing by midweek.
COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH AFTER MIDNIGHT WILL LIKELY KEEP ATMOSPHERE WELL MIXED. SO LOWS WILL PROBABLY BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN WHAT IS FORECAST. TEMPERATURES ON WED WILL BE A BIT COOLER. RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS ON MON WILL LIMIT FIRE DANGER TO THE LOW END OF VERY HIGH CATEGORY ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL KS.
THE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL NOT LAST LONG AS A PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MOST AREAS BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
WEAK RIDGING/ZONAL FLOW WILL BE THE REPLACEMENT DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS. MOISTURE WILL BE CONFINED TO THE LOWER VALLEY OVERNIGHT.
Waves of showers and thunderstorms are spiraling around the low level circulation.
240 PM MDT SUN MAR 13 2016 A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE PACIFIC WILL MOVE INLAND TONIGHT AND ALLOW MOISTURE TO INCREASE AHEAD OF IT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN THE FORM OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. LOW LEVELS BEGIN TO SATURATE WITH SHOWERS BEGINNING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH OF I- 70 BY DAYBREAK. HOWEVER TEMPS WILL BE MILD ENOUGH FOR RAIN BEING THE PRIMARY PRECIP TYPE UNTIL THE COLD FRONT AND TROUGH PASS THROUGH MONDAY EVENING WHICH WILL LOWER SNOW LEVELS TO LOWER VALLEY FLOORS.
THE WIND PROFILE IS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AND THIS STEERING FLOW WILL BE THE IMPETUS FOR DRAWING UP A WARMER SOUTH(WEST)ERN AIR MASS TOMORROW. 1000-500 MB THICKNESS VALUES INCREASE INTO THE LOWER 570 DAMS AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE UPPER TEENS. OR MID-LEVEL WARMTH FALLING WITHIN THE LOWEST 1% OF OCCURRENCE PROBABILITY.
432 PM EDT SUN MAR 13 2016 THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW AS ONE WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSHES NORTH OUT OF THE AREA.
SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE LOCATED OVER EASTERN KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AND NORTH OF THE UPPER LOW. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
But the freezing level aloft will be lower as this system moves over the southern Ozarks. Monday is still looking very nice with upper level ridging and a light south breeze along with sunshine.
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT JUST TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE COLD FRONT TO THE WEST OF THE AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD BE MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE BEST MUCAPE IS JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES IN. EVEN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THE TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY A LITTLE COOLER TONIGHT. COOLER TEMPS AND POSSIBLY WINTRY PCPN. TEMPS TREND COOLER.
THE RAIN IS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL LIFT INTO THE LOWER PENINSULA FROM ILLINOIS.
THIS WILL GRADUALLY CHANGE AS HIGH PRESSURE NEAR JAMES BAY MOVES TOWARD EASTERN QUEBEC LATER TONIGHT AND FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHEASTERLY WITH A LITTLE MORE MOISTURE. BUT DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS IS KEEPING THIS AT BAY.
348 PM CDT SUN MAR 13 2016 Two main areas of showers and thunderstorms have developed across Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas this afternoon in response to a compact low pressure system. The northern area of precip was mainly scattered showers and thunderstorms north of the upper low moving west and northwest. near and just east of the upper low across Southeast Oklahoma. This activity will continue to spread east and northeast through Southeast Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas into the evening hours as the upper low continues to shift eastward. The low looks to be entering Northwest Arkansas around 00z and should be exiting the CWA by 06z. Thunderstorm intensity should begin to weaken after 00z over the CWA as the greater instability shifts over Central and Eastern Arkansas with the movement of the upper low.
919 AM EST TUE NOV 17 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH TODAY.
SNOW LEVELS HAVE SLOWLY RISEN OVERNIGHT, THOUGH SOME POCKETS OF COLDER AIR ALONG AND NEAR THE SURFACE EAST OF THE CASCADES THIS MORNING WILL LEAD TO THE SLIGHT POSSIBILITY OF FREEZING DRIZZLE AND/OR LOCALLY LOWER SNOW LEVELS IS PRECIPITATION DOES OCCUR THERE THIS MORNING. HOWEVER, MODEL BUFFER SOUNDINGS INDICATE A 1500+ FOOT ABOVE FREEZING SATURATED WARM LAYER BETWEEN A COLDER SATURATED LAYER ALOFT AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE SURFACE OVER THE EAST SIDE THIS MORNING, SO FREEZING DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE. BY MID-LATE MORNING WE DO EXPECT THAT SNOW LEVELS WILL RISE TO 6500 TO 7000 FEET ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA, SO THE WINTER WEATHER THREAT WILL GO AWAY EXCEPT ON THE HIGHER PEAKS.
A WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO BRING PERIODS OF RAIN TO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA TODAY AND TONIGHT.
WINDS ANDS SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT WITH SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION TODAY AND DEVELOPING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES THIS EVENING AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS.
The models also were depicting relatively strong upper level divergence over the area ahead of the deep upper level low/trough moving slowly eastward into the Plains. Despite the cloud cover and precipitation, high temperatures today will be a little warmer than yesterday and above normal with continued strong southerly surface/low level flow ahead of the approaching deep upper level low.
948 AM CST TUE NOV 17 2015 INCREASED THE MENTION OF LIGHT SNOW THIS MORNING ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY GIVEN RADAR SIGNATURES AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 30S ADVECTING INTO THE AREA. THUS DECREASING CLOUDS WEST TO EAST TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S. UPGRADE THE HIGH WIND WATCH TO A WARNING WEST.
Forecast soundings mix to H7 or better this afternoon, where 30-40kt westerlies are forecast to round the base of the trough. Forecast soundings and H85 temp fields suggest staying towards the cooler end of guidance in the short term.
AND VERY STRONG COLD ADVECTION TO CAUSE OVERTURNING IN THE ATMOSPHERE TO GET THE HIGH WINDS DOWN TO THE SURFACE. THUS HAVE ISSUED A HIGH WIND WATCH FOR THE TIME SURROUNDING THE HIGHEST WINDS. STAYING ABOVE FREEZING.
852 AM EST TUE NOV 17 2015 DRY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE UNTIL RAIN ACCOMPANIES THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF LATE WEDNESDAY COLD FRONT. FRIES LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING DEEP TROUGH FROM THE MID PLAINS. INCREASING MOISTURE AND OROGRAPHIC LIFT WILL HELP PRODUCE LIGHT QPF THROUGH WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE RIDGES. THE ONCE WORRISOME DOWNSLOPE WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO CAUSE ISSUES AT THIS TIME DUE TO MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATING A MORE SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE WIND ACROSS THE RIDGE TOPS ON WEDNESDAY. SOME STRONG GUSTS MAY OCCUR OVER THE RIDGE TOPS AND VALLEYS BUT THE SCENARIO IS NOT PRIME TO REACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA.