Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Latest UA analysis shows low pres lifting NE out of the Great Lakes, with a persistent longwave trough axis extending south toward the N Cntl Gulf coast. Mostly clr to partly cloudy skies in advance of the convection have allowed temperatures to warm into the lower to middle 90s this aftn. Subtropical ridging west of the area will build east acrs TX the next few days, as the east CONUS trough lifts and deamplifies acrs the Ohio Valley.
1233 PM CDT Wed Aug 5 2020 An upper level ridge axis was located from west TX into the northern Rockies. Regional radar shows MCS exiting southwest and south central KS and into OK within this higher area of moisture. The longer term will focus on the return of convection and much warmer temperatures closer to normal and slightly above normal. Temperatures today will still be well below normal with highs from the upper 70s to mid 80s with the cooler readings up in central MO. Tonight, we'll begin to see some upper level energy move east across the top of the ridge and approaching the area from the west. Should see more cloud cover and warmer temperatures than currently with lows in the upper 50s in the eastern Ozarks to the mid 60s in the western portion of MO and southeast KS.
/issued 942 AM CDT Wed Aug 5 2020/ Skies are mostly sunny across the Mid-South this morning with temperatures in the low to mid 70s. Current temperatures are mainly in the lower to mid 60s. Highs will be in the 80s with lows in the lower to mid 60s.
The forecast area resides within a mean southerly flow this morning, between a mid level ridge centered over the southern Rockies, and an upstream trough extending along the Pacific Coast. Appreciable moisture remains confined to southern Arizona per GOES imagery and surface observations, thus any convection which develops associated with this ejecting wave will likely be high based and confined to persistent convergence zones along ridgelines, given a lack of moisture/instability across adjacent valleys.
Temperatures sunrise Thursday a few degrees warmer than recently, in the lower to mid 60s. After morning convection wraps up early Thursday in the SE zones, the daylight hours will be dry and warmer. Just a slight bump warmer on Thursday, with low 90s likely far the south near the developing warm front in the OK Panhandle.
231 PM EDT Wed Aug 5 2020 Increasing moisture along with an upper level trough and higher daytime temperatures today through the weekend will result in chances of showers and thunderstorms each day. The upper level trough will remain west of the area through tonight with short waves rotating through the axis of the trough and into the forecast area. With the high pwat values and cells this morning being highly efficient rainfall producers the area is also under a WPC marginal risk of excessive rainfall. High temperatures this afternoon will be in the upper 80s to low 90s with overnight lows in the low 70s.
Upper low over northern California. Airmass north of the low appears fairly unstable. Strong upper trough and cold front move across the region Thursday. Otherwise partly cloudy and cooler with highs in the 70s to mid 80s.
The persistent eastern CONUS trough will continue to supply broad forcing for ascent over the Tri-State region today.
132 PM MDT Wed Aug 5 2020 Northwest flow aloft continued today with an upper trough over the eastern CONUS and a ridge to the west extending from New Mexico north along the Rockies. As the disturbance approaches the High Plains, thunderstorms are forecast to develop along the higher terrain of the Rockies and progress eastward through the afternoon and evening. The warming trend continues on Thursday, with highs in the upper 80s and low 90s as upper ridging slides further east into the Plains. Another round of thunderstorms is forecast in the afternoon and evening, with a disturbance generating convection along the higher terrain in Colorado once again. Long range guidance suggests that (1) an upper level ridge will persist over the Southern Plains and (2) that the mid-latitude westerlies will be confined to higher latitudes (i.
Large-scale troughing continues to dominate the eastern United States with a small scale perturbation moving through the base of the cyclonic flow. MA Chattanooga Airport, TN 88 69 89 69 90 / 30 20 40 10 20 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 87 68 86 68 87 / 20 20 50 20 30 Oak Ridge, TN 87 67 88 67 88 / 20 20 50 10 20 Tri Cities Airport, TN 85 64 85 64 85 / 30 30 60 20 40.
209 PM EDT Wed Aug 5 2020 High pressure will build into the area and bring dry but cool weather into the area through Thursday.
High pressure was centered over central Illinois at this time. The high will shift to the northeast tonight but will keep the Mid-South in a dry and cooler pattern for the next couple of days.
The upper-level trough to which we have owed our below-normal temperatures continues to slowly drift east. Anticyclonic surface flow remains over the southern Great Lakes just upstream of the trough. Weak flow at all levels will keep warm advection on the backside of the high to a minimum, but temperatures tonight will be a bit warmer with the slow progression of a low-level thermal ridge from the west and mid-level cloudiness across the northern CWA. High temperatures will range from the upper 70s in south-central IL to the mid 80s in central MO as the thermal ridge crawls east in the absence of strong steering flow.
1146 AM EDT Wed Aug 5 2020 A few showers will linger downwind of both lakes through midday, before an expansive area of high pressure over the upper Mississippi Valley gradually builds across the lower Great Lakes this afternoon and tonight. The primary upper low will settle across Quebec this afternoon. Cyclonic flow aloft associated with the upper low will combine with lake enhancement to aid a west/southwest upslope flow (850Ts in the upper single digits C) to produce some showers downwind of both lakes through around midday. Readings will be mainly in the low to mid 70s. These cooler temps along with dew points in the mid 50s and a brisk westerly breeze will make it feel very refreshing outside.
A weak boundary remains in place roughly just SE of the CWA, marked mainly by a dew point gradient (60s to the north, 70s to the south), and a weak mid-level trough axis remains parked just to the west of the CWA. It appears as if the mid-level vort max will finally exit the region late Thursday morning, and should focus the most widespread coverage of convection on Thursday afternoon in the higher terrain of eastern TN/western NC.
154 PM EDT Wed Aug 5 2020 High pressure will build into the area and bring dry but cool weather into the area through Thursday.
Large-scale troughing continues to dominate the eastern United States with a small scale perturbation moving through the base of the cyclonic flow. Diegan Chattanooga Airport, TN 69 89 69 90 70 / 20 40 10 20 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 68 86 68 87 68 / 20 50 20 30 10 Oak Ridge, TN 67 88 67 88 67 / 20 50 10 20 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 64 85 64 85 64 / 30 60 20 40 10.
1000 AM MDT Wed Aug 5 2020 MORNING UPDATE: High pressure over the area will lead to a rather sunny day with light winds.
The ridge axis should amplify somewhat later today as a negatively tilted trough pivots over northern California, intensifying an upper-level jet streak that is moving across the central Great Plains. The small, yet tightly curved nature of the hodographs in the low-levels that elongate aloft is yielding about 30-35 knots of deep-layer shear. With the high centered nearby.
Quiet but hot conditions are in store as ridging continues to build across the southern CONUS from the west. Blended model guidance continues to undershoot daytime highs, thus opted for the high end of bias-corrected guidance. The main weather concern continues to be elevated fire weather conditions in Val Verde County where RH will fall into the low to mid 20s in the afternoons and winds will remain breezier than the rest of the region.
A disturbance embedded within cyclonic flow aloft is moving through the Tennessee valley this afternoon with showers and thunderstorms developing mainly across the higher terrain. However, the main trough axis remains to the west of the area, so a couple of weak disturbances moving through southwest flow could allow for a couple of showers to develop overnight. Longwave trough shifts further east on Thursday with better PVA aiding in synoptic scale ascent.
233 PM EDT Wed Aug 5 2020 High pressure surface and aloft will hold over west central and southwest Florida through the period.
Ahead of a weak surface boundary around the MO River Valley of central SD, clearing skies and broad warm air advection across the remainder of the region should allow for some destabilization this afternoon with dew points creeping into the lower 60s. Slight chances for rain linger in northwest IA into Thursday, when the upper trough departs to the east.
High pressure is building into the region behind the front that made its way to the coast overnight. Prior discussion below: Today through tonight: The persistent upper level trough over the ArkLaMiss region will slowly shift east in the near term.
1225 PM MDT Wed Aug 5 2020 Current surface analysis shows low pressure over western ND, with frontal boundary stretching south across western SD and weak cold front to the northwest of the area. Low pressure and the fronts will sag slowly southeast through the region today, with winds becoming north to northeast and drier air moving in to the area. A weak disturbance moving through the ridge will interact with the front and produce showers and thunderstorms later this afternoon into tonight.
232 PM CDT Wed Aug 5 2020 Upper air pattern will be settling into predominant ridging for the next several days across the southern Plains. Currently have ridge expansion over west TX and NM with a trough flanking either side over the US. Some spots will reach the lower end of Heat Advisory criteria today and tomorrow with the Guadalupe's, Winkler, and Upper Brewster counties seeing the Advisories carry through the next few days. Ridge field will expand across the southern US for the latter half of the week, but heights will lower a tick each day, so temps, while hot, will not be as elevated as today.
It will be later this evening when thunderstorms on the high plains spread an anvil into the area. Expect the thunderstorms on the high plains to move east and could get into the western part of the forecast area closer to 10pm. An upper level ridge builds to the west and temperatures will be a little warmer on Thursday.
The southerly component to the flow is not strong enough to push first- generation convection into the Lower Keys, but regeneration along outflow boundaries could bring a few straggling showers to the Lower Keys late this evening.
Southwesterly flow has also set up ahead of the trough that has moved into California so expect any smoke from fires to now move from southwest to northeast.
Ridging at all levels will maintain mostly VFR conditions through the next 24 hours across Deep South TX. Will go with persistence for the high temperature forecast for today.
CAMs are suggesting some scattered thunderstorm development toward midnight or shortly thereafter in northwest Iowa near the nose of the low level jet.
354 PM EDT Wed Aug 5 2020 A cold front will sweep across the area this evening.
1221 PM CDT Wed Aug 5 2020 An upper level ridge will be centered over the Rocky Mountain region with an upper level trough will be centered over Illinois/Indiana this afternoon and evening, placing Nebraska between the two. Surface moisture is decent, with dew points reaching the low 60s. On Thursday, the upper level ridge will move east to become centered over the High Plains.
Will keep the higher pops confined to the Panhandle and taper farther to the east. Heights begin to rise Thursday as the upper level ridge axis shifts from the Rockies into the western High Plains. A weak disturbance appears it will be rounding the top of the ridge axis and crossing the area from about midday through the evening hours. Confidence is high that scattered thunderstorms will again develop on the higher terrain to the west and attempt to push eastward into western NE on an isolated basis Thursday night. There is some signal from the CAMs of this occurring but the lack of any boundary for convection to focus leads to the low confidence.
Models this cycle still show a dominate ridge aloft, to the east - building and slowly moving toward Texas.
301 PM CDT Wed Aug 5 2020 Rather pleasant conditions were found again this afternoon across the area courtesy of high pressure centered over Illinois and Indiana. A gradual warming trend will mark the short term as high pressure slowly migrates out of the region. With only meager lift, the main impact of this feature will be cloud cover and its effect of holding temperatures a few degrees warmer than the past several nights. Conditions will be similar to the past few days, except a few degrees warmer due to continued airmass moderation and a light low level southerly flow.
12Z upper air analysis continues to show a long-wave upper trough axis positioned from the Great Lakes southward into the central Gulf. Even so, there is enough moisture present which when combined with ascent offered by the passage of weak mid-level impulses in the mean trough position, presence of weak surface pressure trough and afternoon instability over the deep south would favor initiation of isolated afternoon storms. Between two upper ridges, one over TX and the other over the southwest Atlantic, upper trough de-amplifies a bit over the local area Thursday. Meanwhile, a very diffuse surface pressure trough remains draped from the southeast US to the central Gulf coast. Hot temps will continue with highs mainly in the low to mid 90s.
It should make for a menacing-looking sky to the south, especially as seen from the Lower Keys. On one hand, the southerly component will most likely lack the oomph to get first-generation convection all the way north to the Lower Keys. An Atlantic ridge axis will become better established across Central Florida through Thursday, then slowly strengthening through the weekend.
A few high based showers were also noted along the CO/NM border over the higher terrain and across the La Garitas. I expect we will see some strong storms further east but not as strong as over the higher terrain east of the mtns. Flow aloft tomorrow does shift to more southwesterly as the ridge axis at mid levels pushes east of the Centennial State.
705 PM EDT Wed Aug 5 2020 High pressure will build into the area and bring dry but cool weather into the area through Thursday.
623 PM EDT Wed Aug 5 2020 A cold front will sweep across the area this evening.
Cooler temperatures are expected Thursday, then a gradual warming trend is expected through the weekend. A trough of low pressure will persist along the west coast the next several days. Marine layer depth will rise to close to 3000' and push up the lower coastal mountain slopes.
738 PM EDT Wed Aug 5 2020 High pressure centered over the Upper Mid West will build across the Lower Great Lakes through Thursday.
630 PM EDT Wed Aug 5 2020 A weak cold front drops to the south of our region tonight with high pressure moving in for Thursday.
901 PM EDT Wed Aug 5 2020 High pressure centered over the Upper Mid West will build across the Lower Great Lakes through Thursday.
Trough of low pressure extends along the front range of eastern Colorado northwestward into Laramie and eventually to near Riverton this afternoon. very dry conditions being observed with Tds in the low 20s.
The upper level high pressure located over Western Texas will remain in place through tomorrow night. Temperature tomorrow will remain warm with highs in the lower 90s across the coast to temperatures near 100 across the Rio Grande.
/issued 232 PM CDT Wed Aug 5 2020/ Upper air pattern will be settling into predominant ridging for the next several days across the southern Plains. Currently have ridge expansion over west TX and NM with a trough flanking either side over the US. Some spots will reach the lower end of Heat Advisory criteria today and tomorrow with the Guadalupe's, Winkler, and Upper Brewster counties seeing the Advisories carry through the next few days. Ridge field will expand across the southern US for the latter half of the week, but heights will lower a tick each day, so temps, while hot, will not be as elevated as today.
However, with upper level ridging building into the region from the west, storms are not expected to be as widespread as was seen today. Latest UA analysis shows low pres lifting NE out of the Great Lakes, with a persistent longwave trough axis extending south toward the N Cntl Gulf coast. Mostly clr to partly cloudy skies in advance of the convection have allowed temperatures to warm into the lower to middle 90s this aftn. Subtropical ridging west of the area will build east acrs TX the next few days, as the east CONUS trough lifts and deamplifies acrs the Ohio Valley.
Highs Thursday look just a couple degrees warmer than today and in general tomorrow should be a near repeat of today, likely with greater cloud cover earlier in the day.
703 PM EDT Wed Aug 5 2020 High pressure building over southern Lower Michigan tonight will lead to mostly clear skies and calm to very light winds over the next 24 hours. Quiet weather continues today with large scale subsidence in the mid- levels as high pressure remains firmly overhead. This clearing will allow for significant radiative cooling to occur allowing temps to drop back into the lower 50's, aside from the Metro area or along the lakeshores which will see lows in the mid to upper 50's.
Mid and upper-level ridging continues to grip much of the southwestern U. and Plains, while general troughing continues over the Great Lakes and Northeast. The benefit has been cooler and very pleasant conditions for the TN/OH Valley.
531 PM MDT Wed Aug 5 2020 Scattered showers and thunderstorms have developed along the higher elevations east of the divide today, with gusty winds continuing to be the main threat. Second, the added midlevel lift from the trough will allow more numerous showers and thunderstorms along the higher elevations of northern WY during the afternoon. Conditions will calm down after sunset with loss of daytime heating and the trough moving to the northeast.
Rather pleasant conditions were found again this afternoon across the area courtesy of high pressure centered over Illinois and Indiana. A gradual warming trend will mark the short term as high pressure slowly migrates out of the region. With only meager lift, the main impact of this feature will be cloud cover and its effect of holding temperatures a few degrees warmer than the past several nights. Conditions will be similar to the past few days, except a few degrees warmer due to continued airmass moderation and a light low level southerly flow.
Compared to 24 hours ago, temperatures are generally running 5 to 10 degrees cooler throughout the Sacramento Valley and northern San Joaquin Valley. 2 mb between San Francisco and Sacramento), and the upper level trough whose axis is aligned over the Golden State.
VFR with north winds mainly under 10KT will continue through the evening under high pressure.
316 PM PDT Wed Aug 5 2020 Afternoon temperatures will be a bit cooler through Thursday followed by a gradual warming trend over the weekend.
1035 PM EDT Wed Aug 5 2020 Subtropical ridging centered to the northeast of Bermuda stretches southwest through the Bahamas. A weakness in the ridge is over the Gulf of Mexico, associated with a broad mid to upper level cyclonic envelope noted on water vapor imagery. The most recent radar loops detect scattered thunderstorms west of the Lower Keys. An old outflow from South Florida is nearing the Lower Keys from the northeast, and remnant boundaries are over the southeastern Gulf near and north of the Marquesas. An Atlantic ridge axis will become established across Central Florida tonight through Thursday, followed by slow strengthening through the weekend.
High pressure over the region will continue to maintain hotter than normal temperatures this week. Surface dewpoints ranged from the upper 30s to the lower 50s. The area remains between an upper high over srn NM and weak trofiness over CA.
Low pressure trough extends along California, and triggers a few thunderstorms each day before the weekend.
Expect VFR conditions to prevail across the Rio Grande Valley tonight into early Thurs morning as the 500mb subtropical ridge across west Texas continues to provide subsidence across western portions of south Texas. Otherwise, tranquil conditions are expected tonight with ridging at all levels persisting. Ridging will remain in place through Thursday night keeping mostly dry conditions.
Atlantic high pressure will continue to weakly ridge into the eastern Gulf of Mexico through the upcoming weekend, with gradient winds generally holding less than 10 knots and turning onshore each afternoon with the sea breeze.
924 PM EDT Wed Aug 5 2020 A cold front will sweep across the area this evening.
356 PM MDT Wed Aug 5 2020 High pressure over the area brought dry conditions and sunny skies across the region today. The upper ridge begins to break down Thursday.
Widely scattered showers are forecast to move inland from the Gulf late tonight and into the Suwannee Valley due to the low level southwesterly flow. Moist sw flow ahead of an upper trough to the west with convection moving north from central Florida will result in numerous showers/storms over mainly ne Fl this afternoon/evening. Expect isolated strong storms as cell and boundary collisions occur over inland ne Fl near the Highway 301 corridor.
928 PM EDT Wed Aug 5 2020 Building high pressure will maintain quiet and mainly dry conditions through Thursday afternoon. Shower thunderstorm chances increase across the ridges through the week's end, with temperature increasing through the weekend. The exception would be across the eastern ridges, where daily shower and storm chances exist.
This area of high pressure will slowly shift east during the rest of the week. A short wave is moving southeast within the larger scale upper trough currently over the area. On Thursday, 850 mb temperatures jump up a bit which should translate to a bit warmer highs, but still not bad for early August, ranging from 80 to 85 degrees.
this is likely due to the 500mb trough in the vicinity and ongoing outflow boundaries traversing the area. /issued 305 PM EDT Wed Aug 5 2020/ The trough of low pressure that been over South Florida for the last couple of days that was formally associated with Isaias is slowly weakening this afternoon. The trough so be gone by Thursday allowing for high pressure over the Western Atlantic waters to build into the Florida Peninsula. Highs on Thursday will be in the lower to mid 90s except around 90 east coast metro areas. Environment looks favorable for the development of deep, slow moving convection with plenty of lightning and heavy downpours thanks to a mid-level trough.
/Issued 144 PM CDT Wed Aug 5 2020/ The welcome relief from the summer heat continues today thanks to some influence from the 500mb trough over the eastern half of the US and cloud cover that has persisted much of the day across a good chunk of the CWA. This trough will continue to slide to the east this afternoon. The back side of the trough still has an embedded baroclinic zone within the NW flow aloft which is slowly moving eastward with the trough. This shift in the zone, combined with the cloud debris from the MCS this morning, is allowing for cooler temperatures this afternoon especially across the southeastern portion of Oklahoma. This increase in cloud cover will also allow for slightly warmer temps for tomorrow morning when compared to the past few days.
Isolated showers may linger a little in the morning, but should diminish as forcing diminishes and mid-level ridging nudges into our area by late morning. Upper level ridging over the central CONUS will begin to slide over the Upper Mississippi River Valley Thursday night.