Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
313 AM EDT Sun May 1 2022 The cold front that brought us our overnight storms will push convection off to the east this morning, followed quickly by mostly sunny skies this afternoon. just a couple degrees cooler than normal.
Currently, temperatures across the area are generally in the low to mid 40s except for the far eastern counties, which are in the low 50s. Expecting the low to gradually weaken and devolve into an open wave during its exit, which will result in the scattering of shower activity. The low may provide a brief enhancement to shower activity in the west late this afternoon, but overall activity will be light and scatter out as it progresses eastward this evening.
The westerly winds on the backside of the low pressure system today will be gusty at times and highs are expected to climb into the 50s. The low pressure system will exit the Great Lakes Region tonight and bring dry conditions through Monday.
Rain-free conditions expected tonight with upper ridge axis situated overhead. Though there may be enough wind to limit widespread fog, the subsidence beneath the ridge may allow patchy fog to develop in wind-sheltered areas along and west of I-95. Lows will be a bit warmer tonight with lows generally in the low 60s inland and upper 60s along and east of I-95. Southerly flow developing around the impinging ridge axis and increasing moisture will continue the warming trend Sunday with highs in the upper 80s inland and low 80s at the coast. Marginal ridging aloft will provide some subsidence/mid-level warming. However, continued moisture advection should offset upper ridge stabilizing effects and expect scattered diurnal convection to be favored again along the sea breezes, particularly where they converge.
This will be followed by a 500 mb trough that will ease across the Lone Star State on Monday.
- Fogleman Upper-level high pressure ridging persists over the region this afternoon, which brought pleasant weather to the area with light winds and sunny skies. A weak upper-level ridge remains and the aforementioned system departs from the region early Monday.
259 AM EDT Sun May 1 2022 Showers and thunderstorms continue to make their way through central Indiana as the cold front pushes eastward. In the wake of the front ridging will move in aloft with high pressure at the surface allowing for subsidence and dry air for the remainder of the short term. Expect a brief period of mostly clear skies this morning while the area sits within the dry slot, but clouds should move back in for the rest of the day as moisture on the backside of the low makes an appearance. Highs across the area today will vary from the low 60s in the NW to low 70s in the SE as the NW will see more cold air advection than the rest of the area.
Today's front will rapidly lift north across the state as a warm front Monday afternoon with another cold front approaching from the west. Expect showers and storms to increase again as the warm front moves through.
A quick moving upper level ridge moves through the area Monday keeping us dry but we may see the breezes kick up enough that a Lake Wind Advisory may have to be issued.
Elsewhere, only including MVFR ceilings with prob30 groups as the lower ceilings look less likely at TYS/TRI with heavier showers or thunderstorms.
Do think it's worth noting however, that the highest values along the MO River will largely depend on how much clearing we see - so will continue to monitor trends and adjust as needed. As noted above, expect rain chances return to the forecast early Monday morning as an upper level trough and Colorado low eject northeastward across the central CONUS. 75 inch, with the highest values likely south of Hwy 20.
While the threat for storms has passed from this system, the wrap around moisture in strong CAA is bringing drizzle to our northwestern counties this morning, and that very light threat of precipitation will continue through this morning in the strong cyclonic flow south of the synoptic cyclone. In the southern counties, farther away from the low, the saturation depth appears lower, and light precip appears unlikely to reach the ground.
The "Final" Evening Update: As discussed last evening the expected onshore flow increased significantly late afternoon as the 5H low and trof off the Pac NW coast moved onshore. This was too late to effect the maxes in the Valley and foothills today as most areas were warmer while there was about 2 to 6 degrees of cooling in Solano Co and the higher mountain areas. This 5H low and trof will move into NV tonite/early Sun with possibly some light showers over the high Sierra around or north of the Tahoe latitude. Max temps warm a little again on Sun as high pressure rebuilds over Norcal as the upper low and trof move Ewd into UT. But look for another transition to cooler temps on Mon as another trof approaches/moves into the Pac NW on Mon.
1147 PM MDT Sat Apr 30 2022 Quiet and cooler conditions will soon be replaced with another Pacific Northwest system tracking across the intermountain west this afternoon. Relative humidities in the low teens and gusty southwest winds are leading to issuance of Red Flag warnings for Colorado zones 207,290,292,293,294,295. Temperatures in the low valleys will approach 80 degrees, adding to critical fire weather concerns. On Monday, the low pressure will lift out over the plains, but leave some moisture behind in it's wake. We will get a short- lived ridge Monday night before the next low pressure approaches from the northwest.
A strong low pressure system continues to spiral across southeast MN early this morning. Weak ridging will begin to build across the western and central Dakotas today. Temperature wise, cooler than normal readings will continue through Monday. Daytime highs are likely to remain in the upper 40s to mid 50s after beginning in the low to mid 30s earlier in that morning.
316 AM CDT Sun May 1 2022 The cold front is making its passage across the remainder of southwest Indiana and the Pennyrile of western Ky. High temps will be in the low to mid 70s with plenty of sunshine. Upper heights rise/ridge in a teleconnected response between the departing/flattening trof in the Great Lakes, and the newly developing system spilling into the Plains from the Rockies.
258 AM EDT Sun May 1 2022 Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb closed low near Sioux City this morning in an embedded trough in the Missouri River Valley. The closed low will slowly head northeast into the upper Great Lakes region tonight into Sunday. Dry air at the low levels is stubbornly yielding to the pcpn shield approaching from the south and moving due north and made some adjustments to the pops this afternoon. Expecting the low to gradually weaken and devolve into an open wave during its exit, which will result in the scattering of shower activity. The low may provide a brief enhancement to shower activity in the west late this afternoon, but overall activity will be light and scatter out as it progresses eastward this evening.
202 AM MDT Sun May 1 2022 Current surface map places high pressure across eastern Montana into western South Dakota. Water vapor shows upper low moving into the western Great Lakes with another upper low moving into the Great Basin. Great Basin upper low tracks across the central Rockies tonight and into the Central Plains Monday. The exception is for the higher terrain of the Black Hills and the Pine Ridge along the Nebraska border where a transition to snow is possible on Monday.
114 AM EDT Sun May 1 2022 High pressure will remain off the Southeast coast for the next few days with temperatures rising above normal.
930 PM PDT Sat Apr 30 2022 Low pressure moving over Nevada will ramp up our onshore flow this evening, trigger a coastal eddy, and bring more clouds and cooler weather on Sunday.
Across the central and west, expect only a few clouds through the day as ridging nudges in. By tonight, the ridge flattens, promoting some increasing clouds across the west. Highs will be a touch warmer than yesterday, especially central and east (ranging from the mid to upper 40s east to the mid to upper 50s central and west).
Then focus will turn to the next upper trof/low which is just moving into the Pacific Northwest this afternoon. While taking a somewhat similar track, the main concern is how far north the surface warm front will get into south central and southeast Kansas Monday afternoon. The NAM is more bullish in moving the warm front northward which would put locations along and east of the turnpike in the very unstable air ahead of the dry-line (DL) Monday afternoon.
Sunny skies, light winds and temperatures in the 60s to low 70s are expected across the region today with deep layer ridging firmly entrenched across the region. This increasing cloud cover will help keep temperatures a good bit warmer tonight with lows in the mid 30s to mid 40s.
Most of us this evening are in the low/mid 70s with a few clouds in place. We will see dry conditions until an approaching cold front brings in additional showers and thunderstorms late tonight into early tomorrow morning. The aforementioned cold front nearly stalls in the middle of the forecast area on Sunday.
153 AM EDT Sun May 1 2022 Showers and thunderstorms are forecast to develop tonight to Sunday morning in the circulation around low pressure tracking to the Great Lakes. Drier weather is expected late Sunday through Monday as high pressure pushes across Kentucky.
Early afternoon analysis showed the closed low responsible for our recent impactful weather spinning over northwest IA/southwest MN. The low will continue to push northeast this evening and overnight, with most associated precip expected to exit to the northeast by 8-9 PM or so, though can't rule out a few stray lingering showers overnight given cyclonic flow and a small bit of instability in the cloud layer per model soundings. By the afternoon, surface ridging will slide in and lead to subsiding winds. While the track of the low and any severe weather threat is still progged to remain well south of the forecast area, still expect plenty of precip to the north of the low, along with a enough instability for some rumbles of thunder.
1218 AM CDT Sun May 1 2022 Summary: After a wet start, the remainder of the week looks a little warmer and dry. A large area of low pressure will slowly cross from Minnesota into Wisconsin through Sunday afternoon. Garden variety, elevated thunderstorms chances are the highest this afternoon as some instability crosses â mainly over northwest Wisconsin, but itâs nothing much and barely deserves a mention except with the forcing from the low it increases the potential over similar environments and will pose as mainly a lightning risk. The rest of the week is quite boring as upper level flow splits running a closed upper level low through the countries mid-section and leaving us high and dry under high pressure.
Water vapor imagery shows a deep cyclone centered over northwest Iowa and a dry punch of air pushing east into the area, which has cleared out much of the western CWA earlier this morning. We are expecting a mostly sunny day on Sunday over the area with the main low pressure system continuing to lift northeast. High temperatures on Sunday should reach the low to mid 70s. On Sunday night, the next upper low will begin to push into the high plains by 12z Mon with a southerly low level jet over the southern and central plains. Several focus points for convection with an upper level jet streak, a warm front lifting into southern MO and southeast KS with a cold front shifting southeast into the area Monday night.
(Today and Tonight) Pleasant weather today with focus becoming storms increasing in coverage over the High Plains by afternoon. These storms will steadily expand in coverage as they spread eastward north of the returning warm front.
Models continue to show a compact upper low crossing the central Great Plains on Monday.
132 AM EDT Sun May 1 2022 High pressure remains in control with temperatures near or just below freezing this morning. Not much going on with high pressure and dry low levels. 3 PM Update High pressure remains in control through tonight with mostly clear skies and light winds overnight. However, this means temperatures will drop off quickly after sunset and lows dip near freezing or just below by early Monday morning. However, clouds will be on the increase through the day with showers pushing in from the southwest ahead of a warm front during the afternoon.
with a cold front continuing to slowly drop SE across SERN AR. Cooler. but lift back north across the CWA late tonight into Mon as a warm front. With the warm front lifting north late tonight into Mon. A new cold front will approach from the NW late Mon night. a few strong to SVR storms may be seen Mon night ahead of the cold front across NWRN/NRN AR.
Dew points are in the low to mid 70s as temperatures continue to fall.
As an upper level closed low continues south into the Great Basin this morning, light to moderate rain and high elevation snow showers continue with a more organized band situated in the Magic Valley tracking east. With this area of low pressure eventually departing to the southeast, the main band of precipitation will continue east before wrapping around into the Central Mountains helping to increase QPF totals across upslope favored locations. Accumulating snowfall above 7000ft will be a trace to upwards of 4 inches with locally higher amounts on summits and along ridgelines. Storms will likely stay confined to the higher terrain with best chances confined east of I-15.
1037 PM CDT Sat Apr 30 2022 The primary concern for the short term is obviously the ongoing threat for severe thunderstorms ahead of the cold front late this afternoon/early evening. The west wind won't promote strong cold advection, so highs on Sunday will be similar to today's across most of the area, but northern Missouri into central Illinois will see cooler temperatures than today as they will be closer to the cold core of the low over the Upper Midwest.
/Issued 421 PM EDT Sat Apr 30 2022/ High pressure remains across the western Atlantic. Cooler temps are not anticipated behind the front for Monday.
241 AM EDT Sun May 1 2022 Florida sits underneath an area of weak WNW flow aloft between the southern stream over the Straits and northern stream ridging down the Eastern Seaboard. At the surface, ESE flow remains established along the western edge of ridging across the Atlantic. Some light east coast showers will be possible again overnight tonight, but convection on Monday looks to be a little less than recent days as deep layer ridging becomes more established and drier mid/upper-level air moves overhead. The east coast will remain a few degrees cooler than the interior and west coast the next couple of afternoons, with highs in the low to mid 80s, while upper 80s are anticipated elsewhere.
Looking at the big picture, an occluded cyclone is moving very slowly to the northeast over MN/WI with a cold front extending south across the OH Valley and through the Mid-South. The tornado threat appears limited but could increase along the retreating warm front where surface winds will be more backed, enhancing low-level curvature of the hodograph.
357 AM CDT Sun May 1 2022 Upper trough over the northern and middle Mississippi River Valley early this morning, with a complex of thunderstorms over northern Louisiana and west central Mississippi quickly approaching the northwest edge of our CWA at this time.
Mild weather today with highs in the low to mid 70s. Mid-level height rises are expected today as a low-amplitude ridge builds into the region behind the aforementioned upper-level wave. Thus, a mild day with mostly clear skies and afternoon high temperatures in the low to mid 70s is expected today. Overnight lows in the mid 40s across central Missouri and the low to mid 50s over southwestern Missouri are expected tonight. A trough builds over the western CONUS and will begin to traverse eastwards towards the Central Plains later today. A warm front will lift northwards into the Missouri Ozarks with southerly surface flow bringing abundant moisture into the area by Monday afternoon.
The upper trough remains to the west and will move across the state this afternoon, at which time a few more showers may develop, but additional rainfall amounts will only be a hundredth or two. Weak upper ridging moves over the cwa Monday providing dry weather and perhaps a few peaks of sun, but overall, a mostly cloudy day is expected.
Model soundings suggest that potentially surface- based storms could exist in the western and southwestern parts of the area, so a tornado threat is possible especially when the low-level jet strengthens after sunset. Temperatures will be a little warmer this evening as cloud cover and associated convection moves through the area.
405 AM CDT Sun May 1 2022 In the short-term, the focus is on a few clusters of thunderstorms which developed along a cold front yesterday evening and overnight. Showers will remain possible across the far northwest Monday night as a cold front begins to approach the area.
The cold front is over Western Tennessee this morning. Another round of isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected this afternoon as the cold front moves closer. Instability is moderate over the region with dew points in the lower 60s and mesoanalysis shows CAPE around 1000 to 1500 J/kg. TD Chattanooga Airport, TN 78 57 85 63 86 / 50 10 10 20 40 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 77 56 82 60 85 / 70 20 0 20 40 Oak Ridge, TN 77 53 82 59 85 / 70 10 0 20 40 Tri Cities Airport, TN 75 54 78 55 83 / 60 40 0 0 50.
Surface cold front should push eastward across mid state region as day progresses also. However, only slightly cooler high temperatures on store for our area with highs mainly upper 70s, mid 70s Cumberland Plateau Region, closer to seasonal normal values. Expect a dry zonal flow pattern aloft to continue through tonight with amplifying upper level ridging influences taking hold by early afternoon hours on Monday. Cold front will sag southeastward into central portions of Deep South late tonight before pushing back as a warm front as day progresses on Monday.
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a warm front lifting north will continue this morning. Convection is expected to develop again starting around mid afternoon as convective temps are met ahead of a cold front. Precip chances will decrease early Monday morning with the passage of a cold front and a closed upper-level low becomes an open wave over Quebec and tracks into northern New England. Monday night is expected to be quiet and dry as a ridge builds across the Ohio River Valley in response to a developing disturbance east of the Rockies.
The cold front that brought us our overnight storms will push convection off to the east this morning, followed quickly by mostly sunny skies this afternoon. just a couple degrees cooler than normal.
925 AM EDT Sun May 1 2022 Latest surface analysis shows an occluded low pressure system centered over WI with the Commonwealth bifurcated by the cold front. Regional observations also report falling dew points behind the front with readings dropping from the low 60s across the east half of KY to the low 50s to the west. The cold front that brought us our overnight storms will push convection off to the east this morning, followed quickly by mostly sunny skies this afternoon. just a couple degrees cooler than normal.
Low pressure at the mid levels will make its way across east central Idaho and southwest Montana today. Moisture will wrap around this low. Cold unstable air behind this low will trigger scattered showers much of western and northwest Montana central Idaho through Lemhi County and southwest Montana this afternoon. Some warmer and drier air will build over the Northern Rockies Monday but that will be short lived as yet another springtime mid level low pressure system will roll its way through Central Idaho, Southwest Montana and the Northern Great Basin.
616 AM CDT Sun May 1 2022 (Today and Tonight) Pleasant weather today with focus becoming storms increasing in coverage over the High Plains by afternoon. These storms will steadily expand in coverage as they spread eastward north of the returning warm front.
Current MSAS analysis shows a boundary currently draped across Central TX is expected to lift north as a warm front today.
/NF/ In the short-term, the focus is on a few clusters of thunderstorms which developed along a cold front yesterday evening and overnight. Showers will remain possible across the far northwest Monday night as a cold front begins to approach the area.
Low pressure at the mid levels will make its way across east central Idaho and southwest Montana today. Moisture will wrap around this low. Warmer and drier air will build over the Northern Rockies Monday, but that will be short lived as yet another springtime mid level low pressure system will roll its way through central Idaho, southwest Montana, and the Northern Great Basin.
High pressure will then build across the region for a few days of rain free weather and warmer temperatures inland. Clearer skies across the interior has aided in localized surface temperatures reaching near freezing across the valleys. Coastal cloud cover is expected to deteriorate through the day and afternoon temperatures should rebound into the upper 50s to near 60 while the low to mid 70s are expected across the interior this afternoon.
536 AM EDT Sun May 1 2022 High pressure centered near Bermuda supports moderate east to southeast breezes across the Florida Keys. Water vapor imagery highlights a broad and weak upper level trough across Florida, Cuba, and the Bahamas. This trough is south of an Omega-like feature over the eastern CONUS. The broad upper low will shift to the east-southeast, placing the Keys on the dry and stable side.
The freezing level on the morning sounding at Great Falls is 6500 feet MSL, consistent with web cam observations showing rain on most mountain passes, and snow on a few of the ski area web cams at higher elevations.
Florida sits underneath an area of weak WNW flow aloft between the southern stream over the Straits and northern stream ridging down the Eastern Seaboard. At the surface, ESE flow remains established along the western edge of ridging across the Atlantic. Some light east coast showers will be possible again overnight tonight, but convection on Monday looks to be a little less than recent days as deep layer ridging becomes more established and drier mid/upper-level air moves overhead. The east coast will remain a few degrees cooler than the interior and west coast the next couple of afternoons, with highs in the low to mid 80s, while upper 80s are anticipated elsewhere.
Temperatures are already warming nicely, with many locations already in the lower 50s. Sunny skies, light winds and temperatures in the 60s to low 70s are expected across the region today with deep layer ridging firmly entrenched across the region. This increasing cloud cover will help keep temperatures a good bit warmer tonight with lows in the mid 30s to mid 40s.
Wet weather continues overnight with both surface obs & satellite imagery clearly showing the center of a large low cyclone spinning over the Minnesota/Wisconsin border.
Weak high pressure over the region today for a dry and milder day across Western Washington.
516 AM MDT Sun May 1 2022 Current surface map places high pressure across eastern Montana into western South Dakota. Water vapor shows upper low moving into the western Great Lakes with another upper low moving into the Great Basin. Great Basin upper low tracks across the central Rockies tonight and into the Central Plains Monday. The exception is for the higher terrain of the Black Hills and the Pine Ridge along the Nebraska border where a transition to snow is possible on Monday.
An accompanying cold front should push through the region Monday morning bringing a renewed bout of breezy onshore winds. With seasonally robust cold advection Monday's readings will be a bit cooler, and in the 60s for all but the warmest inland valleys.