Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
535 AM CST Wed Jan 20 2021 An upper trough and impulse moves through the northern plains today with associated dry frontal boundary that should pass through later this afternoon and evening. Ahead of the boundary though, we're seeing a rise in temperatures overnight, as good mixing and westerly wind component will make for a warmer day today. Expect highs to reach into the 40s for the FA before the cold front passes through. Could also see some patchy blowing snow today, especially over the coteau region, though once temperatures get above freezing chances will decrease. Aside from the wind, no other significant weather over the short term, though passage of the cold front starts a cooling trend towards near normal as we move toward the weekend.
Weak high pressure will bring dry but cloudy conditions across western Washington today.
(Today and tonight) An upper low is off the Baja California coast early this morning, with southwest flow aloft ahead of this system over our area. Considerable moisture will remain in the lower to mid levels and will have a possibility for an additional embedded disturbance to approach the area.
A solid radar wind signature has developed recently over the higher elevations from Mount Evans north to Longs Peak. So far the strongest winds of 40-60 mph have been confined to areas close to the divide, with lesser winds trickling down into the lower foothills. A number of models show a complex wind pattern east of the mountains, with some WNW wind mixing off the Cheyenne Ridge and downstream of the Boulder/Rocky Flats terrain across most of Denver, but with a zone of lighter winds, possibly out of the southeast or east in between. The less windy and lower areas will be 5-10 degrees cooler. There's a slight chance of light snow over the ridges but it should be minimal if there is any.
216 AM MST Wed Jan 20 2021 We are still under the influence of the southern stream upper low even though it is well to the West off the SoCal coast. The closed low to the Southwest will be suppressed to the lower tier of States as it kicks eastward by the next upstream wave entering the PacNW early in the day. Models want to develop some light precipitation in the afternoon Thursday over the higher terrain.
Mostly clear skies are ahead this morning as high pressure moves across the Mid-South. Winds will shift towards southerly later in the day as the high moves eastward. Low pressure in Canada, moving into Ontario tonight, is the driver of the southerly winds, which will be a little breezy, gusting to 20 mph late this afternoon through tonight. A closed low off the California coast will begin to move across the Southern U.
335 AM CST Wed Jan 20 2021 Today and Tonight: early morning surface analysis had a stalled front from just south of I-20 west of the Mississippi river extending east northeast to just south of the Highway 82 corridor in our northeast. High temperatures will be held to the 50s again across the northern half of our CWA and in the low to mid 60s south. Morning lows will again be rather mild Thursday ranging from the lower 40s northeast to the lower 50s southwest.
427 AM MST Wed Jan 20 2021 We are still under the influence of the southern stream upper low even though it is well to the West off the SoCal coast. The closed low to the Southwest will be suppressed to the lower tier of States as it kicks eastward by the next upstream wave entering the PacNW early in the day. Models want to develop some light precipitation in the afternoon Thursday over the higher terrain.
At the surface, weak low pressure across northeast Mexico will drift across deep south Texas today then into the Coastal Bend by tonight. The associated cold front will push into the western portions of the CWA later this morning before stalling. The NAM is also much cooler with high temperatures today than the GFS/ECMWF, especially across the west. Will blend towards the warmer guidance for the east and the cooler (NAM) for the west for temperatures today and tonight.
Low pressure off the northern Baja coast will gradually fill and lift inland into southern Arizona late tonight into tomorrow. Elsewhere, some lingering cloud cover will remain probable through this evening before clouds scatter out and dissipate as the low pushes inland.
The pressure gradient will be fairly tight across the area, with gusty winds out of the south in the evening, becoming westerly as the low shifts east. Thursday: The low is expected to continue to shift eastward throughout the day, reaching southwest Quebec by late afternoon. By late morning, a cold front is expected to sag southward into the area, allowing winds to shift to the west-northwest or northwest. Otherwise, high temperatures are expected to remain in the mid to upper 20s across the central to the low and mid 30s east and far northeast. For Thursday night, an arctic cold front will drop southeast across the area. The cold front will bring a chance of snow showers or flurries to the region during the evening.
Tomorrow afternoon should be warmer than today for most locations with higher ceilings/more insolation.
356 PM EST Wed Jan 20 2021 Sunny skies prevail across the Florida Keys island chain, with temperatures uniformly in the lower 70s at all land-based observation stations. Surface analysis reveals a sprawling area of 1026 mb high pressure centered over the northern Gulf of Mexico.
SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday Night): A cold front has worked its way just west of the immediate coast and lies pretty much along I-69E. Weak but persistent isentropic upglide overnight and Thursday morning is expected with warmer 925-850mb southerly winds overriding the cooler surface condition in response to an upper low pressure area moving into NW Mexico. Limited sunshine and a delay in the south winds will likely limit maximum heating so have opted to lower temperatures below consensus keeping them in the low 70s.
219 PM EST Wed Jan 20 2021 High pressure will remain overhead through the end of the week, with dry weather and gradually warming temperatures.
328 PM EST Wed Jan 20 2021 High pressure will cross the region tonight.
High pressure out of the mid/srn Plains states also continues to build into much of the SE region, thereby helping to maintain quiet/tranquil wx conditions. The low-level high will shift to the east later this evening into tonight with southwesterly flow returning in the low levels. In the mid and upper levels, a northwesterly flow trough will move into the Tennessee Valley later tonight.
On Thursday, winds pick up from the northwest gusting up to 35 mph as an arctic cold front dives southeastward through the area.
1130 AM CST Wed Jan 20 2021 Under the influence of low-level ridging, a clear sky continues across the region, a nice change from the previous several days. By this evening the low-level ridging will have moved east out of the region, and a weak low will move through the lower Mississippi Valley. This low, combined with an area of weak low-level frontogenesis will generate rain across southern Missouri and much of Arkansas this evening. Continued WAA into the evening will keep overnight lows warmer than the previous nights, bottoming out in the upper-20s near the Missouri-Iowa border and in the 30s across areas to the south. MRM A dry cold front will move through the region Thursday evening.
Patchy blowing snow and drifting snow continues across portions of the area and is expected to blow its self out as the afternoon wears on with the above freezing temps. With these westerly winds in the valley the lowest locations may not see the strongest gusts and best mixing with a skip over possible at GF and Fargo proper but for the higher elevations for example Fosston and Fergus Falls expecting gusts to mix down this afternoon. The highest gusts will occur at the higher elevations outside the Valley, specifically in the Devils Lake Basin during the 17Z to 23Z time frame. Colder air will filter south behind a cold front which passes through Thursday.
211 PM EST Wed Jan 20 2021 High pressure will settle over the region through tonight but moisture will increase late and into Thursday.
1020 AM MST Wed Jan 20 2021 We are still under the influence of the southern stream upper low even though it is well to the West off the SoCal coast. The closed low to the Southwest will be suppressed to the lower tier of States as it kicks eastward by the next upstream wave entering the PacNW early in the day. Models want to develop some light precipitation in the afternoon Thursday over the higher terrain.
By afternoon, a cold front will slide south into central Mississippi and Alabama with large scale lift increasing under the right entrance region of the upper jet. Low temperatures will generally be in the mid 40s to lower 50s tonight, with highs on Thursday ranging from the lower 60s in the north, to around 70 along and south of I-10.
1226 PM EST Wed Jan 20 2021 A ridge of high pressure has short residence time over the area today before the next low pressure system drops into the northern Great Lakes tonight. MVFR ceilings predominate the region early this afternoon before a strengthening southwest gradient leads to an uptick in wind speeds and low level warm advection works to scour out the lower ceilings by this evening. However it will take the day to displace the resident cold airmass in place, so highs once again will struggle to crack the freezing mark. Further help comes as the upper trough that has lingered over the central Great Lakes the past couple days finally pushes east of the region later today allowing for more zonal flow aloft.
A warm front was moving northward through the area bringing above freezing temperatures into the forecast area this afternoon, with low 40s being observed across the southern counties of the forecast area as of 20Z. A cold front will move across the forecast area tonight, however temperature changes behind the front are not significantly cooler. Winds will shift behind the cold front and will stay breezy overnight as the pressure gradient stays compact. The airmass will be warmer than last night with 850mb temperatures at 0 to -3C compared to around -6C to -9C this morning (Wed) at 12Z. With the warmer airmass in play, and the winds failing to drop off, expecting lows tonight in the 20s, with the southern areas closer to 30 degrees.
Temperatures will likely reach their daily peak in the lower 30s this evening as warm air advection continues. Tomorrow looks to be another mainly sunny day across the area, and temperatures should be a few degrees warmer than todays readings (into the mid to upper 30s). A cold front will shift southward across the area Thursday evening, and this will result in a wind shift to the northwest.
A ridge axis will continue to settle across South Florida for the remainder of the work week.
Low pressure tracking to the north will drag a dry cold front through CPA by Thursday night.
An upper trough and impulse moves through the northern plains today with associated dry frontal boundary that should pass through later this afternoon and evening. Ahead of the boundary though, we're seeing a rise in temperatures overnight, as good mixing and westerly wind component will make for a warmer day today. Expect highs to reach into the 40s for the FA before the cold front passes through. Could also see some patchy blowing snow today, especially over the coteau region, though once temperatures get above freezing chances will decrease. Aside from the wind, no other significant weather over the short term, though passage of the cold front starts a cooling trend towards near normal as we move toward the weekend.
122 PM EST Wed Jan 20 2021 Seasonable temperatures, dry and occasionally breezy conditions will continue today as a dry cold front moves through. Canadian high pressure from the north will provide cooler and drier weather this weekend. An upper level trough moving off the East Coast today will push a surface cold front through the eastern Carolinas around sunrise this morning. High pressure will build across Georgia tonight, close enough to provide calm winds and good radiational cooling. My forecast lows are on the low end of MOS guidance, generally in the low to mid 30s.
Low pressure tracking to the north will drag a dry cold front through CPA by Thursday night. A cold front sweeping through will bring light snow amounts north and west of the Allegheny Front, with the possibility of more than a coating in NW Warren County.
224 PM CST Wed Jan 20 2021 An upper level low/trough is just south of California with west southwest upper winds over West Texas and Southeast New Mexico. Temperatures are expected to remain above freezing tonight so precipitation will remain in the form of rain. The previously mentioned upper trough will move eastward over Arizona and New Mexico and will weaken on Thursday.
An upper level ridge will remain rooted in place over the central Gulf of Mexico nosing up to the southern gulf coast states through Thursday. At the surface, a cold front over the northern Gulf of Mexico this morning, with high pressure to the north of the front quickly translating east across the forecast area tonight into Thursday morning, shifting east of the area by Thursday evening.
At the surface, trof has pushed into the Upper Midwest with gusty northwest winds in its wake.
The main features of note were a large closed low off the coast of Baja California, with split flow to its northeast over the Four Corners region and into the central Plains. Broad ridging prevailed along the southern CONUS out ahead of the west coast system. Meanwhile at the surface, a trough extending down from a Canadian system lingered across the High Plains. Weak northwesterly flow continues aloft as the Baja California low comes ashore, weakens, and is absorbed into the flow, having no impact on the High Plains.
244 PM CST Wed Jan 20 2021 Mid/high clouds have increased over the area with moisture streaming northeast and then east ahead of a low latitude upper low off the coast of northern Baja. Some of that moisture will move into our area tonight before a 850mb trough shunts the moisture back to the south and east by morning.
1150 AM CST Wed Jan 20 2021 982mb low pressure across nrn Saskatchewan this morning will move southeast into Manitoba today. The influence of the low pressure on wind speeds across Nebraska this morning vanishes as the low moves into Manitoba this afternoon. The temperature forecast leans on the warmer guidance blend. A cold front will back into the region tonight and Canadian high pressure will slowly build south through the nrn high plains Thursday.
1035 AM MST Wed Jan 20 2021 Upper low well southwest of the area off the coast of the Baja Peninsula this morning, leaving moderate w-nw flow aloft across CO. Plus side to the wind will be much warmer temps, and a few near 60F readings look likely on the plains, mainly over the far east where little/no snow cover is left. Snow covered areas farther west and weakly mixed interior valleys should stay cooler, though even here readings should jump several degf from yesterday.
1004 AM MST Wed Jan 20 2021 Sent an update this morning to cancel the High Wind Warning for our SW Phillips County. Thus, the High Wind Warning remains in effect until 11 am for that area. Low pressure will keep chances for light snow mainly to the south during this period, but will keep an eye on the southern zones. One more day of warmer temperatures today before the region begins to drop down to normal temperatures for this time of year.
1248 PM EST Wed Jan 20 2021 Snow showers should taper off by this afternoon behind an exiting cold front.
215 PM EST Wed Jan 20 2021 High pressure will settle over the region through tonight but moisture will increase late and into Thursday.
335 PM EST Wed Jan 20 2021 Weak high pressure moves into the region tonight.
128 PM CST Wed Jan 20 2021 982mb low pressure across nrn Saskatchewan this morning will move southeast into Manitoba today. The influence of the low pressure on wind speeds across Nebraska this morning vanishes as the low moves into Manitoba this afternoon. The temperature forecast leans on the warmer guidance blend. A cold front will back into the region tonight and Canadian high pressure will slowly build south through the nrn high plains Thursday.
1027 AM MST Wed Jan 20 2021 Western NOAM troughing will support much cooler and continued semi-unsettled conds. Ahead of the trough, mild conds are expected with highs in the 40s and 50s, warmest over the southern half.
Convection to drift southward into deep east Texas and northwest Louisiana on Thursday as west-northwest flow aloft amplifies downstream of an upper-level trough across the desert southwest.
1023 AM EST Wed Jan 20 2021 Conditions will dry out today, with a dry cold front pushing through on Thursday. High pressure from the north will then begin to settle in and keep temperatures near or just below seasonal values heading into the weekend.
A second dry cold front will pass through the region Thursday leading to another day of strong winds gusting 25 to 35 mph out of the northwest. High Temperatures Thursday will be quite a bit cooler and range from the upper 20s on the Coteau to the upper 30s along and southwest of the Pierre area.
1141 AM CST Wed Jan 20 2021 (Today and tonight) An upper low is off the Baja California coast early this morning, with southwest flow aloft ahead of this system over our area. Considerable moisture will remain in the lower to mid levels and will have a possibility for an additional embedded disturbance to approach the area.
259 PM CST Wed Jan 20 2021 High pressure has shifted east which has increased our cloud cover.
A closed upper low will eject north and east out of northern Baja tonight through 18Z Thursday and then weaken into an open wave by late Thursday.
A high pressure ridge shifts from the NW as as a weak front moves through the Southeast U. Afternoon highs will be in the low 70s.
339 PM EST Wed Jan 20 2021 High pressure will build over the area tonight and then gradually weaken on Thursday.
1255 PM EST Wed Jan 20 2021 Conditions will dry out today, with a dry cold front pushing through on Thursday. High pressure from the north will then begin to settle in and keep temperatures near or just below seasonal values heading into the weekend.
321 PM EST Wed Jan 20 2021 Expect southwest winds to increase into tonight as the pressure gradient strengthens between high pressure to the south and low pressure passing east through Ontario. So, after temperatures bottom out in the lower to mid 20s late this evening, expect rising temperatures overnight with relatively mild conditions persisting into Thursday with highs in the upper 30s.
SFC cold front will push south tomorrow morning bringing north winds and some light snow or flurries possible along the frontal passage where the strongest CAA initiates some shallow lift. There should be a period of VFR for all terminals eventually as these pockets of stratus exit after a few hours, before a cold front brings the potential for more very light snow and MVFR conditions late tonight into the day Thursday. Wind direction should shift from the west to northwest as the cold front drops south tonight.
The low responsible for the significant snowfall in the southwest Colorado valleys earlier this week will continue its transition to an open wave and track well to our south across southern Arizona and New Mexico. An exception will be in some of the aforementioned southwest valleys with areas such as Durango and Pagosa Springs trending much cooler than guidance thanks to the recent snowpack. Forecast soundings show decent saturation in the lower levels with a few inches of snow likely across the Park range.
A second dry cold front will pass through the region Thursday leading to another day of strong winds gusting 25 to 35 mph out of the northwest. High temperatures Thursday will be quite a bit cooler and range from the upper 20s on the Coteau to the upper 30s along and southwest of the Pierre area.
SFC cold front will push south tomorrow morning bringing north winds and some light snow or flurries possible along the frontal passage where the strongest CAA initiates some shallow lift. MVFR CIGs expected to develop overnight as winds shift to the north with a cold front.
Meanwhile, upper flow remains split as a northern stream trough moves into the Northern Plains and a southern stream trough with a closed low moves slowly toward the Baja peninsula in Mexico. Winds will turn light and variable with clear skies allowing temperatures to fall back into the low to mid 20s. Heading into Thursday, a weak frontal boundary associated with the northern stream trough makes its way southward toward KS, turning winds to the north for the afternoon while remaining light.
Much of the area has seen windy conditions today as a tight pressure gradient developed between high pressure to our southeast and low pressure to our north. As the low to our north moves eastward, a zonally oriented cold front will pass from north to south over the CWA. The past couple model runs have consistently suggested that this cold front will be accompanied by decent low- level moisture, appreciable lapse rates, and locally higher winds while it passes over the Arrowhead and Iron Range.
High pressure influence continuing over the local area through tonight, with no rain chances in the forecast. Favorable boating conditions continuing overnight, as high pressure remains over the local area.
After a final warm day across the area today, expect a cooler day on Thursday as temperatures fall to more seasonable levels. As cooler air moves in, a weak disturbance will bring snow to Southwestern Montana. Further north, expect a mostly quiet day with peaks of sunshine, though it will be noticeably cooler.
643 PM EST Wed Jan 20 2021 Clearing skies will occur this evening as low pressure departs to the east.
306 PM MST Wed Jan 20 2021 Cold front moving through the area and winds tapering off along the foothills in response. This reflects a plume of moisture rotating underneath this low which will bring favorable conditions later on Thursday for snow over the western zones.
Highs in southeastern South Dakota into the northeastern Nebraska will be from 35 to 40 while southwestern Minnesota will be in the lower to mid 30s.
Coulston After a final warm day across the area today, expect a cooler day on Thursday as temperatures fall to more seasonable levels. As cooler air moves in, a weak disturbance will bring snow to Southwestern Montana. Further north, expect a mostly quiet day with peaks of sunshine, though it will be noticeably cooler.
523 PM CST Wed Jan 20 2021 A cold front is moving through western NE this afternoon. Weak high pressure will build into the region tonight. Another weak cold front will move through western NE Thursday afternoon. Highs forecast to be about 10 degrees cooler than today, from near 40 northwest Sandhills to the mid and upper 50s south.
Beginning tonight, the colder air from the arctic air mass moves southward over our region, riding a cold front.
943 PM EST Wed Jan 20 2021 Clearing skies will occur this evening as low pressure departs to the east.
The high wind warnings will continue through 5am Thursday for some of the lower elevations of Carbon and Albany Counties, while the other warnings go through 11am Thursday. The flow will weaken Thursday afternoon as low pressure moves eastward and relatively high pressure moves southeast along the lee of the Rockies.
703 PM EST Wed Jan 20 2021 A broad region of low pressure in northern Ontario drives an enhanced pressure gradient and moderate SW wind across Lower Michigan tonight through Thursday. A warm front/occlusion embedded in the flow moves from the Midwest this evening and across Lake Michigan tonight where it produces a nocturnal LLWS profile leading to gusty wind during Thursday. Expect southwest winds to increase into tonight as the pressure gradient strengthens between high pressure to the south and low pressure passing east through Ontario. So, after temperatures bottom out in the lower to mid 20s late this evening, expect rising temperatures overnight with relatively mild conditions persisting into Thursday with highs in the upper 30s.