Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
305 PM MDT WED AUG 17 2016 Weak upper level low was centered near Pueblo at mid- afternoon, with scattered slow moving tsra across most of the area. With little wind shear and weak steering currents, main threat from storms this afternoon into this evening will be heavy rain, as convection rotates slowly around the upper low. On Thursday, upper low drifts northward into nern CO, though rather diffuse upper trough hangs back across much of the state through the day. Moisture levels change little across the region, so expect another round of afternoon convection, with best coverage of storms again over the higher terrain and along the NM border.
Despite the available MUCAPE that can get storms initiated the convective inhibition may cap the lower levels which will prevent the cumulus from reaching their storm potential. The thermal trough will be positioned along the coast again tonight bringing offshore winds to the region.
An approaching cold front will then be the focus for thunderstorms across northwest and west central North Dakota this evening spreading southeast across the state by Thursday morning. Cooler more stable air to the north will limit the thunderstorm potential north.
The low level airmass is still fairly juicy across most of the region, although far northwest portions of the forecast area dried some both through advection and better insolation yesterday.
A weak low pressure system over northern Nevada will drift east into extreme northwest Utah by late this evening. This low pressure will weaken as it slowly tracks east across Utah Thursday.
At the surface, a general trough of low pressure has set up over the central and northern plains with high pressure over the southeastern U. There has been an isolated shower in central KS, but otherwise much of the convective activity has been across the higher terrain of CO near the weak mid level low. Went a degree or so cooler the the model consensus thinking skies would remain mostly clear with decent radiational cooling. Highs Thursday are forecast to be into the lower and mid 90s again.
Surface wise, a Western Atlantic ridge extends across the extreme Southeast United States and North Florida.
Well the low clouds and rainy mid August day resembles more of a early November day. Most of the storms are going to be south of the Bluegrass Parkway with bottom 3 tiers of counties the highest early evening POPS.
Most of the high-res models are focusing on some scattered development in an east-west axis over northern Illinois this evening, drifting southward before dissipating late night, so some 20-30% PoP's have been added to the forecast across areas north of I-72.
Expect precipitation to slowly taper off from west to east overnight as the trough axis crosses the region. Broad upper-level trough will begin to shift farther east over the forecast area Thursday. Models have been hinting at precipitation to occur over the eastern portion of the forecast area Thursday afternoon where higher instability is progged to reside while the trough axis shifts east.
335 PM CDT WED AUG 17 2016 High pressure will drift east tonight with south to southeast flow gradually increasing. From mid morning into the afternoon warm and dry air will build in to the lower and mid levels allowing a cap to develop, so thunderstorm potential will be greatly diminished.
The main upper trough aloft currently extending southwestward over the great basin from the low moving through southern Saskatchewan moves across the rockies tonight and over the plains on Friday. The eastern Pacific ridge follows the trough eastward and moves over the western U.
406 AM CDT THU AUG 11 2016 The general synopsis this morning shows a cold front extending from southeast SD through southwest NE. The warm start will lay the groundwork for a very hot day as there has been warm advection in the past 12 hours and temperatures will start out a few degrees warmer than yesterday so expect highs to be 1-3 degrees warmer than yesterday for the majority of the forecast area. Late this afternoon into the evening, the cold front will push into the local forecast area with a slow southward progression through the overnight hours. A short wave trough will move across KS from the southwest this evening as well and appears likely to enhance moisture influx and convergence locally by late evening into early morning.
Currently the low is centered over KVTN and extends northward through KABR to KJMS. The trough will shift east through the day and may be the focus for additional shower and thunderstorm development across the eastern CWA this afternoon. The relatively cooler and drier air should quickly take over however. And relatively cooler, drier air will then be the theme for the remainder of the short term period.
The low pressure system that has been causing our recent heavy rainfall will continue to slowly drift westward today.
This warm air will remain in place through Thursday afternoon until a cold front pushes through Thursday night.
A continued theme of high pressure and hot conditions will prevail again today. Only difference in the forecast today versus yesterday is the approach of some cloud cover from the east due to the westward moving low pressure system over the southern Mississippi Valley.
340 AM CDT THU AUG 11 2016 Quite an active pattern in the short term as a positively-tilted upper trough deepens across the Northern Rockies through the early morning Thursday. This feature will present the next chance of widespread showers and thunderstorms late tonight as a cold front will cross into northwest Missouri after midnight. With precipitable water amounts remaining just over two inches Thursday afternoon, additional isolated storms are possible throughout central Missouri within a broad area of warm air advection ahead of the approaching cold front.
414 AM MDT THU AUG 11 2016 As predicted, the trough over the west coast 24 hours ago had shifted to the Great Basin early this morning. Despite the approach of the Pacific trough, the front extending northeastward from the vicinity of Salt Lake City remained stationary. Precipitable water (PW) values ahead of the trough fell to 0. Flow aloft becomes more westerly as the trough continues eastward today. However, as the trough sweeps eastward, the stationary front north of the forecast area will be driven to the eastern Uinta Mountains providing a focus for thunderstorms this afternoon.
338 AM CDT THU AUG 11 2016 Upper trough over the Intermountain West will swing east the next few days weakening the upper ridge. This will bring a change in the recent unseasonably hot wx with a potential for some cooler and wet wx. As the trough passes off to the east the ridge will build in behind it.
557 AM CDT THU AUG 11 2016 Quite an active pattern in the short term as a positively-tilted upper trough deepens across the Northern Rockies through the early morning Thursday. This feature will present the next chance of widespread showers and thunderstorms late tonight as a cold front will cross into northwest Missouri after midnight. With precipitable water amounts remaining just over two inches Thursday afternoon, additional isolated storms are possible throughout central Missouri within a broad area of warm air advection ahead of the approaching cold front.
Warming trend today and Friday as upper ridge in the eastern Pacific slowly replaces the upper trough that was over our area the past few days.
Latest satellite imagery showed the slow moving upper low off the Southeast Louisiana coast.
454 AM EDT THU AUG 11 2016 Upper ridge to the east through the week.
a high pressure ridge will remain to our east with surface winds becoming more southerly.
Moisture in a northwest flow aloft will continue to wrap around a slowly-exiting upper level low pressure area through the period. Stacked surface/upper level low over SE AB this afternoon will move east across the Canadian Prairies tonight through Thursday with broad upper level trough in its wake extending SW across MT. The broad upper level trough shifts east to a position across MT/ID/WY Thursday with a weakly NW flow across the region. A NW flow aloft remains over the region Friday as the upper trough shifts east of the region with upper level ridging amplifying along the West Coast.
A gradual warming trend is expected as high pressure builds over the region.
S including the SGF CWA was in a broad southwesterly flow aloft ahead of a deep trough across western U. Main upper level jet was on the eastern side of the trough from the central Rockies into the northern Plains with a fairly stout low level jet across the Plains into the upper Mississippi valley region. Dewpoints ranged from othe low to mid 70s. For today, as per current observations which were about 1 to 5 degrees warmer than yesterday at this time, we are expecting slightly warmer temperatures and hotter heat index values. With the high PW values and slow storm movements, brief heavy rainfall over isolated locations will be possible.
614 AM EDT THU AUG 11 2016 Hydro A slow moving cold front will push southeastward through the Great Lakes region over the next couple of days.
430 AM EDT THU AUG 11 2016 Skies are partly to mostly clear with temperatures averaging in the lower 80s along the Florida Keys, with north to northeast winds of 10 to 15 mph. Surface wise, a Western Atlantic ridge extends across South Florida with a subtle trough aligned just offshore of the Dade county coast southward into the Florida Straits.
The mid to upper level ridge will remain over central Texas down into the forecast area through the period.
Initially, a ridge of high pressure over the southeast United States will be the main player, with more heat today and a Heat Advisory posted for the entire forecast area.
644 AM EDT THU AUG 11 2016 An area of low pressure will drift westward along the Gulf Coast over the next few days allowing Bermuda high pressure to become more dominate in the forecast area.
As the low shifts westward to mouth of the Mississippi River by tomorrow afternoon, high pressure at the surface and aloft will slowly build into the area from the east. /Issued 404 AM EDT WED AUG 10 2016/ As with the previous model runs, the latest solutions continue to trend drier in the extended periods as broad Gulf low pressure area shifts westward into the weekend.
Lowering heights/pressures as an inverted trough takes shape over the state this weekend.
242 AM CDT THU AUG 11 2016 Precipitation chances look to be limited today into Friday as mid level ridging takes place north of the tropical low over the northern Gulf states.
Highs ahead of the front will reach the lower 90s and behind the front only in the 80s. Td's in the low 60s. Lows cooler and drier than last several nights with lows in the 50s northwest and 60s southeast.
The effects of an approaching surface cold front will start to be felt late Friday/Friday night, as PoPs begin to ramp up from the northwest.
331 AM EDT THU AUG 11 2016 An area of low pressure will drift westward along the Gulf Coast over the next few days allowing Bermuda high pressure to become more dominate in the forecast area.
358 AM EDT THU AUG 11 2016 An upper level ridge that is currently residing across the southeastern U. Upper level wise the period begins with 595 upper level high parked off the VA/NC coast line. A more broad upper level trough axis will be setup across the central plains. This pattern looks to remain in place and this aforementioned high becomes more of blocking high.
215 AM MDT THU AUG 11 2016 Active wet weather pattern ahead in the short term as a cold front moves into the area from the north. It will be noticeably cooler today and Friday.
Early this morning a high amplitude for August upper trough axis was aligned from western Montana all the way to southern California with a weak short wave ejecting ahead of it causing heavy rainfall overnight.
Otherwise through Friday night, the trend will be slowly increasing pressure with temperatures returning to near normal values Thursday and Friday afternoon on northerly winds on the back side of the low.
The day begins with the closed low spinning just north of the International border. This low will move into Manitoba tonight. The trough pattern will also keep temperatures a bit below average, at least through Friday.
324 AM CDT THU AUG 11 2016 594-595DM upper ridge remains in control across the forecast area. The upper ridge will finally begin to break down/shift south by Friday as a broad upper trof passes through the northern/central Plains.
This is reflective of the weak pressure pattern existing over the area, but the GFS continues to build high pressure and fill in this weakness. With mid level ridge established north of the area, a mostly deep easterly flow pattern is indicated. Deep layer east-southeast flow will exist across the area with west Atlantic ridge extending north of the region. High pressure ridge will slowly build in with axis well north of the waters. Subtropical ridge axis will remain north of the east central Florida waters through the period.
Tonight Through Thursday A cold front has moved south across much of northern Wyoming. some showers and thunderstorms will be over the mountains and spread east over the lower elevations. The cold front will push farther south and west tonight making it most of the way through the southwest. This will bring an end to the red flag conditions with northeast winds cooler temperatures and higher relative humidity.
A ridge of high pressure will build over the region this weekend.
Deep layer ridging and a relatively drier airmass will be building in from the east through the remainder of the week displacing the tropical airmass that has been over the region for the past several days. The upper low and deep tropical moisture will center over Louisiana by Friday night.
A subtle short wave trough is noted moving northeastward across eastern New Mexico and is responsible for spawning showers from eastern New Mexico to parts of the South Plains and Rolling Plains early this morning. Water vapor imagery is also showing the subtropical moisture plume getting pinched across New Mexico by dry air associated with a short wave trough moving across the western CONUS and the subtropical upper ridge centered over East Texas wobbling back to the west. As for temperatures, thickness increases associated with the upper ridge drifting westward suggest highs 2 to 4 degrees higher today than yesterday for the eastern half to two-thirds of the area but closer to persistence for western zones.
Jet dynamics will not play a role in storm development today with troughing and associated jet max east of the area. Expect dry and seasonal temperatures on Friday with well above normal temperatures forecast over the weekend as high pressure expands across the area.
A upper level ridge will build over the great basin over the next several days. High pressure will begin to build across the great basin with the passage of the weak frontal system yesterday. The high pressure will also usher in lighter winds across Nevada.
The return to typical summertime weather pattern has set up as upper level ridging holds over the Deep South while S-SE low level steering flow around Western Atlantic high pressure builds back into the area and holds in place. Warm and humid daytime seasonal temperatures running generally from the lower to mid 90s.
Short range models indicate a southwest flow aloft prevailing across the Western High Plains today as an upper level trough of low pressure transitions eastward across the Northern Rockies into the Northern Plains. Meanwhile, an attendant cold front is projected to push southeastward into western Kansas Thursday night setting the stage for possible thunderstorm development across portions of western Kansas late in the period. Although a cold front is expected to begin pushing through portions of western Kansas by early Friday morning, lows Thursday night are likely to drop back down into the 60s(F) for the most part with a few lower 70s(F) still possible in south central Kansas. Precipitation chances will increase Thursday night and Friday as the cold front moves across southwest Kansas and an upper level trough crosses the Central High Plains.
1211 AM CDT THU AUG 11 2016 The hot and very humid weather will continue through Thursday as the upper level ridge remains the dominant weather feature. A more active weather pattern will return Friday and into the weekend as the upper ridge flattens and front drops southward into the region.
To the northeast a ridge over the western Atlantic is beginning to move west towards the Southeast. Several vorticity lobes/inverted troughs rotating around this low may bring rounds of showers/thunderstorms. Then, as the mid-level low moves further west towards the MS river valley, the highest probability for storms/showers will shift towards the SW and have included lower pops for Friday.
Currently the low is centered over KVTN and extends northward through KABR to KJMS. The trough will shift east through the day and may be the focus for additional shower and thunderstorm development across the eastern CWA this afternoon. The relatively cooler and drier air should quickly take over however. And relatively cooler drier air will then be the theme for the remainder of the short term period.
Upper level high pressure pushing in over the west coast for fair skies over the CWA this morning. Overall airmass under the building ridge will warm a few degrees today putting the northern Sacramento valley back above 100 degrees and everywhere else back a little above normal. Exception could be the delta and near delta areas where a continued moderate delta breeze through the day may bring slightlycooler temperatures. Upper ridge continues to strengthen with its axis centering over the coastline on Friday.
Temperatures this afternoon have warmed into the lower 90s for most locations and the few cumulus around should keep the temperatures from getting too much warmer this afternoon. This cold front is expected to move to the south and into the forecast area on Thursday.
Medium An Upper level trough exits the northern Rockies today, and pushes into the Dakotas later tonight, with a 105 knot 250 mb jet max just north of lake Superior this evening, with only 35 knots across southern Wisconsin which is closer to the upper ridge over the mid Mississippi valley. 850 mb dew points are around 16 celsius as the 850 mb thermal ridge pushes into southern Wisconsin on a 25 knot southwest flow. The south surface flow continues today and tonight ahead of the slowly advancing cold front that will remain to the northwest. so plan on keeping pops on the high side right into Friday evening until the lower level frontal passage brings precip to an end.
354 AM CDT THU AUG 11 2016 The hot weather will continue across all of North and Central Texas through Friday as an upper level ridge dominates the weather across the region. We have an interesting weather pattern with an upper level ridge that extends from the Mid-Atlantic States west across the Tennessee Valley and then southwest across Eastern Texas down into Deep South Texas. An upper level low has been drifting westward toward southeastern Louisiana. Meanwhile, an upper level trough has moved into the western United States. The western part of the ridge will start to break down as an upper level trough moves across the Central Plains and the upper level low moves west northwestward across Louisiana. As this occurs, a cold front will move southwest entering North Texas overnight Friday night.
635 AM EDT THU AUG 11 2016 Upper ridge to the east through the week.
Relatively dry pattern expected to continue through the extended with cooler air filtering into the area on Friday behind a cold front.
358 AM CDT THU AUG 11 2016 Latest 11/00Z continues to show a 700 hPa trough axis established over eastern NM with our region downstream of the trough axis. Current forecast continues to show a cold front slowly makings its way south-southeast through the region as the main mesoscale focal point of the short term forecast. As we go into Thursday night/Friday morning, a surface cold front will be moving due south across western Kansas into the Oklahoma Panhandle.
350 AM MDT Thu Aug 11 2016 As a broad low pressure system exits the area today, clearing overhead skies have become more common over the Northern Rockies early this morning. Northwest flow will dominate today, keeping cooler temperatures aloft and allowing an increase in afternoon instability. Warmer, drier weather is in store for Friday with the exception of a few isolated afternoon showers for northwest Montana.
Strong upper ridge building in over the next few days with sunny skies and warm temperatures.
An upper level ridge will strengthen over the eastern Carolinas through the end of the week, bringing hotter and drier conditions. Overnight temps in the low-mid 70s. With the ridge remaining in place and the deep s flow on the western side of the ridge, low level thicknesses are progged to gradually moderate across our area, so look for temps a little warmer on Thursday (highs in the low-mid 90s and lows in the mid 70s). As for precip, with the ridge centered over our area and a subsident/drier airmass under it, the bulk of shower/tstm activity is expected to remain mostly south and west of our CWA. Through the weekend, the sub-tropical ridge will continue to build into the Carolinas, while a cold front moves into the Midwest and stalls west of the mountains.
Storms have been elevated, north of the warm front and supported by low level jet. These solutions, especially over the northwest, seem reasonable with water vapor imagery showing closed upper low over north central Montana with a short wave rotating around the base toward eastern Montana. Temps will initially be cooler as the system currently affecting the area passes to our east. Upper level ridge builds across the western CONUS by the weekend, with the Northern Plains in northwest flow.
At the surface, a lee side trough of low pressure is anchored across eastern Colorado.
140 AM EDT THU AUG 11 2016 Upper ridge to the east through the week.
The highest chances for thunderstorms will be over the weekend as a frontal boundary pushes through the area. Lows in the low 70s are on track given current dewpoints in the low to mid 70s and some scattered cloud cover, possibly increasing to broken during the overnight.
Little change expected in the short term with a high pressure ridge staying well to our east and surface winds becoming more southerly.
The area will be under an upper level trof for the next few days. This will keep temperatures below average as northwest to east flow in the lower levels will keep summer time heat suppressed to the south and west of the forecast area.
Gulf low pressure area has continued to waddle slowly westward and will reach Louisiana by week's end. Even though there will be some periods of mostly cloudy conditions, there will likely be enough sunshine at Nashville, both today and Friday, to allow temps to keep nudging into the lower 90s.
Coverage may be a bit higher on Thursday into Thursday evening as the upper level ridge over the area slowly weakens and geopotential heights drop slightly during the short term period overall.
Only change may be another degree warmer in temperature for the afternoon highs. Looks like Friday will be more borderline of an advisory situation, as may see warmer temperatures out west but lower dew points as well.
An upper level ridge will strengthen over the eastern Carolinas through the end of the week, bringing hotter and drier conditions. Overnight temps in the low-mid 70s. With the ridge remaining in place and the deep s flow on the western side of the ridge, low level thicknesses are progged to gradually moderate across our area, so look for temps a little warmer on Thursday (highs in the low-mid 90s and lows in the mid 70s). As for precip, with the ridge centered over our area and a subsident/drier airmass under it, the bulk of shower/tstm activity is expected to remain mostly south and west of our CWA. The sub-tropical ridge will continue to build across the heart of the Carolinas through the weekend, while a cold front moves into the Midwest and then stalls west of the mountains.