Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Tonight, under partly cloudy skies, temperatures will remain mild only falling to the low to mid 60s, but before sunrise, rain chances will begin to move into southwest Indiana behind the front. The high tomorrow (pre-frontal) will top out in the low 80s for most. By Friday evening, the strong cold front will be quickly working its way through the region. Overall synoptic environment supports an "anafront" setup, so unlike most of the traditional cold fronts we typically see here with precipitation along and ahead of the front, the bulk of it will be post-frontal.
High pressure will gradually build into the region through the weekend. Mid level clouds will continue to obscure nearby terrain through late morning, especially over the Oquirrhs south to near Point of the Mountain and obscuring the ridgetops along the Wasatch.
Strong northerly winds are expected to continue as high pressure builds into the area. Models suggest a cold front to move through the area around the beginning of the week but no precipitation is expected at this time.
523 PM EDT Thu Oct 10 2019 A ridge of high pressure will remain over central Pennsylvania through Friday.
615 PM CDT Thu Oct 10 2019 A strong cold front continued to push into the region today, as a deep upper trough moved into the Nebraska panhandle. The best chance for a wintry mix of freezing drizzle, sleet, and snow will also primarily be along and west of this line. A Freeze Watch will remain in effect for the counties that are not expected to reach freezing Thursday night.
1017 PM EDT Thu Oct 10 2019 High pressure will prevail through much of the weekend.
525 PM MDT Thu Oct 10 2019 Latest upper air analysis and satellite data show a closed low about to move onto the High Plains. Ahead of the closed low a corridor of frontogenesis continues to move east. As it does so the isentropic lift will weaken as the band moves further from the closed low. Weak WAA will occur during the day, which will allow temperatures to be warmer.
832 PM EDT Thu Oct 10 2019 Dry weather and warmer temperature can be expected through Friday under high pressure.
Clouds will continue to increase throughout tonight as the cold front pushes eastward towards the Ohio Valley.
Both the surface and upper ridge are now situated east of Middle Tennessee, with an increasing surface flow from the south. A strong cold front remains west of the Mississippi River, and as the front closes in on the mid state, our rain chances will increase, but not until tomorrow afternoon and especially Friday night.
High pressure will build southward down the Atlc Seaboard and across the southeast U. Overnight lows generally 70-75 with some U60s along/north of I-4 and across normally cooler locales of the interior. Overall drier on Fri as high pressure builds down the Atlc Seaboard. An old frontal boundary will continue to decay and sag southward taking higher moisture values with it as high pressure builds southward along the Atlc Seaboard.
/Tonight through Friday Night/ Daytime highs reached either side of 90 degrees with overnight lows in the upper 60s to around 70 across southern portions of the area in the warm sector as very stg cold front approaches from the north.
711 PM EDT Thu Oct 10 2019 A dry pressure ridge will dominate through Friday.
1036 PM EDT Thu Oct 10 2019 A ridge of high pressure will remain over central Pennsylvania through Friday.
Otherwise, showers and storms will continue across the area much of the night as the cold front moves through the region and post frontal lift continues the rain chances. Behind the cold front precip will linger with rapidly decreasing thunder potential through the night.
754 PM EDT Thu Oct 10 2019 Upper air model analysis this afternoon indicated deepening upper level low approaching the northern plains. Southerly winds ahead of the the approaching low pressure were transporting warm air and moisture in to the region. Temperatures will run above seasonal averages again on Friday but will fall back into the 40s during the late afternoon in the western counties as a cold front pushes into the UP.
525 PM MDT Thu Oct 10 2019 Snow has pretty much ended over the CWA this afternoon as the upper trough/low continue to edge east over the high plains.
757 PM EDT Thu Oct 10 2019 High pressure will prevail through much of the weekend.
518 PM MDT Thu Oct 10 2019 Upper level analysis has deep trof with closed low across the Northern Rockies and Plains, with ridging to the east and west. Upper low located across north central Wyoming with ample cloud cover and precipitation across the Dakotas. At the surface, cold high pressure has settled across central Montana with temperatures mainly in the 20s.
An upper level ridge will move over Western Washington tonight and east of the area on Friday.
621 PM CDT Thu Oct 10 2019 Northerly winds will continue to increase this evening and into the morning hours of Friday behind a cold front. /issued 257 PM CDT Thu Oct 10 2019/ The cold front that has been forecast to move through the county warning area (CWA) over the last several days has finally crossed through the CWA. The vertical depth of the cold front is shallow, almost similar to depths seen with undular bores. Given the shallow depth of the airmass in the post-frontal environment, a nocturnal inversion is forecast to develop due to strong mixed-layer theta-E advection associated with the low-level jet above the post-frontal airmass.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 60 84 57 70 / 0 0 30 30 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 59 81 58 67 / 0 0 20 40 Oak Ridge, TN 59 80 55 66 / 0 0 20 50 Tri Cities Airport, TN 52 79 58 70 / 0 0 10 50.
/Issued 255 PM EDT Thu Oct 10 2019/ Mid-level ridging aloft will continue to keep the area dry today and tonight, with low level clouds that should quickly burn off now that afternoon mixing has initiated. High pressure east of the Appalachians should also continue to filter drier area into the forecast area with dewpoints dropping into the mid- to lower-50s into tonight. As the ridge axis moves east of the area tomorrow, skies should continue to remain mostly clear outside a few cumulus and some scattered cirrus with temps increasing into the 80s for all areas outside the higher elevations in the forecast area. Starting late tomorrow night, a cold front extending from an occluded low- pressure in the northern plains is expected to begin entering northwestern Georgia.
921 PM CDT Thu Oct 10 2019 KNQA radar showed strong warm advection underway at midevening, in advance of a deep longwave trof lifting through the central and northern plains. Low temperatures tonight will be in the lower 60s to 70s as a frontal boundary approaches the area. A cold front will approach the area by Friday morning.
939 PM CDT Thu Oct 10 2019 Well advertised cold front continues to make slow but steady progress south and east this evening across N TX into SE OK and now portions of SW AR. The 850mb boundary lags the front some 100 miles or so and its in this region between the sfc boundary and the elevated boundary that we will see strong isentropic lift with substantial upward forcing in association with the upper level trough for continued elevated convection. /issued 558 PM CDT Thu Oct 10 2019/ A broken line of convection along a strong cold front currently across SE OK and WC AR will continue to make quick southeastward progress into our air space through the overnight hours and into the first half of Friday.
A cold front is on the way, but we won't feel its effects tonight.
551 PM CDT Thu Oct 10 2019 Convergence along a quasi warm frontal boundary may trigger some weak convection across the Evansville Tri-State through late today. This will be in advance of a cold front (warm sector). It will turn noticeably cooler through the day Friday.
Upper level analysis has deep trof with closed low across the Northern Rockies and Plains, with ridging to the east and west. Upper low located across north central Wyoming with ample cloud cover and precipitation across the Dakotas. At the surface, cold high pressure has settled across central Montana with temperatures mainly in the 20s.
Tonight and Friday A warm front approaching from the southwest will bring increased chances for showers and a few elevated thunderstorms during the overnight hours as it lifts north. Nonetheless it appears we will get precipitation of some type as the lower and middle levels eventually moisten up and the dynamics associated with the front along with the gulf moisture behind the warm front overcome the dry air. Overnight lows will be well above normal as the warm front lifts north with abundant cloud cover and rain showers assisting in keeping temperatures from falling. Much of the forecast area will have sub-freezing temperatures, resulting in the need for a freeze watch. for 00Z TAF Issuance A strong cold front will sweep east across the area during the next 24 hours, leading to generally poor flying conditions.
Temperatures expected to be 15 to 20 degrees below normal overnight, with values expected to be below freezing.
654 PM CDT Thu Oct 10 2019 Periods of showers and a few thunderstorms will continue across portions of central Illinois this evening, spreading eastward overnight into Friday as a strong cold front pushes into the area from the west. Areas of showers associated with warm advection aloft continue across west central IL this afternoon, while a cold front currently moving into western IA and MO approaches from the west. Enough elevated CAPE exists for isolated thunderstorms this afternoon, and especially this evening as a weak warm front surges northward across central IL ahead of the cold front. The cold front will bring a strong cooling, making for a cooling trend during the day Friday, reaching 40s by afternoon across the area, despite some areas starting the day in the 60s east of I-55.
633 PM EDT Thu Oct 10 2019 A cold front will swing into the area Friday afternoon and evening with periods of rain and gusty winds. Temperatures will remain mild in advance of the cold front, before rapidly falling into the 30s and 40s Friday night. Dry, breezy, and much cooler conditions are then expected this weekend.
Sfc cold front has cleared the forecast area however extensive post frontal convection continues. This leads to maintaining the high precip chances into the overnight hours as well as maintaining the flood watch configuration.
1001 PM EDT Thu Oct 10 2019 A dry pressure ridge will dominate through Friday.
Therefore, any rain/freezing rain will move east. There may be some dry slot lowering of probice by morning in the far east with some light drizzle/freezing drizzle possible. Otherwise, echoes were expanding on radar this evening with upper divergence in advance of the upper level low pressure area out west. Ahead of the low, a mix of rain, sleet and snow is occurring across eastern SD and west central MN. Could see a few hours of freezing drizzle this evening across the eastern forecast area as models have been consistently indicating another loss of ice in the snow growth region.
846 PM EDT Thu Oct 10 2019 East to northeast flow around high pressure over the eastern U. High pressure north of the region will keep east to northeast winds in place for the next few days. As we are enjoying our slightly nicer weekend, a cold front will be stalling over the southeast, well north of the forecast area.
338 AM EDT Fri Oct 11 2019 Sharp surface cold front currently roughly along the Mississippi River from MN to central IL. Potent upper low behind this feature is located along the SD/NE border and generating some heavier snows over the Dakotas. Welcome to fall! The cold front will have pushed well east of central Kentucky by daybreak on Saturday, but low clouds may linger near the I-75 corridor.
1110 PM CDT Thu Oct 10 2019 Convergence along a quasi warm frontal boundary may trigger some weak convection across the Evansville Tri-State through late today. This will be in advance of a cold front (warm sector). It will turn noticeably cooler through the day Friday. The period starts out with high pressure moving east away from the region. This will promote light southerly flow developing Saturday night, which may help keep overnight temps slightly warmer in most locations compared to Friday night.
/issued 921 PM CDT Thu Oct 10 2019/ KNQA radar showed strong warm advection underway at midevening, in advance of a deep longwave trof lifting through the central and northern plains. Low temperatures tonight will be in the lower 60s to 70s as a frontal boundary approaches the area. A cold front will approach the area by Friday morning. Temperatures Saturday morning should start to dip down to the 40s, as this front advects a much cooler airmass to the area.
/issued 939 PM CDT Thu Oct 10 2019/ Well advertised cold front continues to make slow but steady progress south and east this evening across N TX into SE OK and now portions of SW AR. The 850mb boundary lags the front some 100 miles or so and its in this region between the sfc boundary and the elevated boundary that we will see strong isentropic lift with substantial upward forcing in association with the upper level trough for continued elevated convection.
Northerly winds in the wake of a strong cold front will continue at around 20 to 30 kts with higher gusts. Winds should start to taper to around 10 kts AFT 11/12Z as high pressure starts to move in.
328 AM CDT Fri Oct 11 2019 After record hot temperatures yesterday afternoon, we are seeing much colder conditions this morning behind a strong cold front. Lows near freezing are still expected this morning across northern Lea Co. High winds through Guadalupe Pass and the Delaware's will continue through the morning so will leave the High Wind Warning there as is. Lows in the 30's and 40's will be common, but it appears temperatures will remain above freezing for areas that haven't seen a freeze yet.
1208 AM EDT Fri Oct 11 2019 Dry weather and warmer temperature can be expected through Friday under high pressure. Shower chances return with a Saturday cold front.
1136 PM MDT Thu Oct 10 2019 Snow has pretty much ended over the CWA this afternoon as the upper trough/low continue to edge east over the high plains.
The abnormally cold airmass in place across the state will gradually warm as high pressure aloft builds into the region during the upcoming weekend.
455 AM EDT Fri Oct 11 2019 A ridge of high pressure will remain over central Pennsylvania through tonight.
344 AM CDT Fri Oct 11 2019 Early Friday morning temperatures are in the low to middle 70s, and probably about as warm as we will see through the weekend across much of the Midsouth. A strong cold front has just moved through Fort Leonard Wood, Missouri and Mountain Home, Arkansas and will soon move into Western portions of the Midsouth. High temperatures over the weekend are expected to be in the low to middle 60s.
1117 PM CDT Thu Oct 10 2019 A strong cold front continued to push into the region today, as a deep upper trough moved into the Nebraska panhandle. The best chance for a wintry mix of freezing drizzle, sleet, and snow will also primarily be along and west of this line.
A cold front is on the way, but we won't feel its effects tonight. As a cold front approaches from the west, we'll begin to see an increase in clouds from the top down, however VFR conditions are expected to continue through most of the day Friday.
139 AM EDT Fri Oct 11 2019 Dry weather and warmer temperature can be expected through Friday under high pressure. Shower chances return with a Saturday cold front.
248 AM CDT Fri Oct 11 2019 (Today and Tonight) Cold front has cleared most of the CWA, leaving gusty north winds in its wake. 00Z upper air shows a weak upper trough to our west. Decided to favor the NAM12 which shows southern areas should have more cloud cover than the northern areas, resulting in cooler morning lows in the mid to upper 30s across the north and warmer morning lows in the 40s in the south.
The highest coverage of storms will be across southeast Oklahoma into western Arkansas. Sfc cold front has cleared the forecast area however extensive post frontal convection continues. This leads to maintaining the high precip chances into the overnight hours as well as maintaining the flood watch configuration.
/issued 846 PM EDT Thu Oct 10 2019/ East to northeast flow around high pressure over the eastern U. High pressure north of the region will keep east to northeast winds in place for the next few days. As we are enjoying our slightly nicer weekend, a cold front will be stalling over the southeast, well north of the forecast area.
This will keep these locations (like Sedona) from freezing, but sheltered valleys nearby will drop quickly.
Clouds will continue to increase throughout tonight as the cold front pushes eastward towards the Ohio Valley. By Saturday, cooler and drier air will move in and last through the end of the forecast.
221 AM EDT Fri Oct 11 2019 A dry pressure ridge will dominate through tonight. A cold front will approach Saturday. Expect highs in the low to mid 80s. Temperatures should be warmer Friday night compared to the previous night. We leaned toward the higher temperature guidance which is usually best just ahead of cold fronts. The models have been consistent with moisture diminishing along the front with lingering h5 ridging plus h85 ridging along the Gulf Coast further limiting moisture.
High pressure will slide east a cold front approaches from the west during this taf cycle.
In the wake of showers and storms this morning, an instability axis has begun to nose north into eastern Kansas and western Missouri ahead of an approaching cold front. Backed surface winds ahead of the westward cold front may induce low-level rotation along the boundary, where LCL heights remain below 100 m. Temperatures Friday morning will dip into the low 30s across northwest Missouri and low 40s across central Missouri. Temps at or near freezing are expected across much of the area.
1106 PM MDT Thu Oct 10 2019 Latest upper air analysis and satellite data show a closed low about to move onto the High Plains. Ahead of the closed low a corridor of frontogenesis continues to move east. As it does so the isentropic lift will weaken as the band moves further from the closed low. Weak WAA will occur during the day, which will allow temperatures to be warmer.
Mid-level ridging aloft will continue to keep the area dry today and tonight, with low level clouds that should quickly burn off now that afternoon mixing has initiated. High pressure east of the Appalachians should also continue to filter drier area into the forecast area with dewpoints dropping into the mid- to lower-50s into tonight. As the ridge axis moves east of the area tomorrow, skies should continue to remain mostly clear outside a few cumulus and some scattered cirrus with temps increasing into the 80s for all areas outside the higher elevations in the forecast area. Starting late tomorrow night, a cold front extending from an occluded low- pressure in the northern plains is expected to begin entering northwestern Georgia.
229 AM MDT Fri Oct 11 2019 As yesterday's storm passes into the high plains today, weakening cold northwest flow aloft will spread over the area. Brisk northwest flow will gradually decrease as a ridge builds over the Great Basin. The ridge will gradually push the jet stream north so winds will decrease.
Evening temperature analysis shows most locations are 1 -3 degrees warmer than this time last night and with the expected increase in cloud cover, overnight low temperatures look on track.
250 AM CDT Fri Oct 11 2019 High pressure and cold air continue to push into the South Plains behind yesterday's strong cold front. This may be enough to keep temperatures above freezing for those areas that don't experience a freeze this morning. The only feature of note is a low-amplitude upper short wave trough that is progged to move across the desert Southwest early in the week. Some modest differences in the sharpness of the trough and the position of the accompanying jet streak.
At the surface, a cold front was moving into Burnet and Llano Counties and stretched back to near Sonora. Winds will be from the north to northeast bringing cooler, drier air. We should have already reached the high temperature for the day and temperatures will fall through the day. Tonight the upper low will move toward the east and the front will continue to move away from our CWA to the south. Surface winds will stay out of the north bringing cooler air.
355 AM EDT Fri Oct 11 2019 An upper low moves northeast off the New England coast through Saturday. Upper ridging extends across the Gulf of Mexico, then northeast along the eastern seaboard. As the upper low moves north, a zonal flow sets up over the region as ridging extends from the western Gulf of Mexico eastward across the Florida peninsula. On the surface, an area of low pressure moves northeast off the New England coast and extends a frontal boundary southwest through the western Atlantic and over southern Florida.
Tonight and Friday A warm front approaching from the southwest will bring increased chances for showers and a few elevated thunderstorms during the overnight hours as it lifts north. Nonetheless it appears we will get precipitation of some type as the lower and middle levels eventually moisten up and the dynamics associated with the front along with the gulf moisture behind the warm front overcome the dry air. Overnight lows will be well above normal as the warm front lifts north with abundant cloud cover and rain showers assisting in keeping temperatures from falling.
Deep upper low over the MT/WY border continues to slowly shift east at mid afternoon. In the meantime, unstable wrap around right under the upper low is producing some light snow over and near the Big Horns. The storm system departing the region today becomes powerful low pressure over the Great Lakes region on Friday. Temperatures will generally be about 4-7 degrees warmer for Saturday, especially over the western zones, but still chilly along the eastern border.
123 AM EDT Fri Oct 11 2019 Upper air model analysis this afternoon indicated deepening upper level low approaching the northern plains. Southerly winds ahead of the the approaching low pressure were transporting warm air and moisture in to the region. Temperatures will run above seasonal averages again on Friday but will fall back into the 40s during the late afternoon in the western counties as a cold front pushes into the UP.
115 AM EDT Fri Oct 11 2019 A dry pressure ridge will dominate through Friday. A cold front will approach Saturday. Expect highs in the low to mid 80s. Temperatures should be warmer Friday night compared to the previous night. Dry high pressure will dominate going into Saturday, and temperatures will gradually warm, possibly into the upper 80s. A cold front approaching Saturday may move into the forecast area Saturday night with a few showers to the north, but moisture will be limited. Deeper upper level troughing will move into the region during this period.
While satellite imagery shows this area starting to shrink, especially from the northeast and southwest, cloud cover will complicate the low temperature forecast. High pressure and northerly flow aloft will keep Northeast Montana cold and dry for the most part this weekend.
132 AM EDT Fri Oct 11 2019 A cold front will swing into the area Friday afternoon and evening with periods of rain and gusty winds. Temperatures will remain mild in advance of the cold front, before rapidly falling into the 30s and 40s Friday night. Dry, breezy, and much cooler conditions are then expected this weekend.
At 05Z the cold front was moving through portions of Central Texas and approaching the Hill Country. Main story will be the sharp wind shift to the N behind the cold front, with gusty conditions persisting through much of the day.
359 AM CDT Fri Oct 11 2019 Upper level trough with an anomalous cold air core has brought winter weather to the upper plains. Wind gusts of nearly 40mph made it feel all the cooler. By 0Z Saturday morning, wind speeds will slow and temps will begin to slip sub-freezing in northern Nebraska. While temperatures will be 5 to 15 degrees warmer, they'll remain below seasonal norms with highs ranging from the mid 40s north to near 60 along the KS state line.