Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1235 AM EDT Wed Oct 19 2022 Cool high pressure will build over the area through the weekend. A large upper low covers the eastern half of the CONUS aloft while cold high pressure builds in from the northwest and west. At the surface, high pressure will build into the forecast area through the short term period. A closed low at 500 mb will continue its residence over the Great Lakes. Broad troughing will persist over the southeastern states while the closed low remains over the Great Lakes. 850 mb temperatures Wednesday are forecast to be bewteen 1 and 3 degrees Celsius, which, despite plentiful sunshine, will be supportive of high temperatures only in the low to mid 60s.
With extremely dry air in place, light winds and the center of the ridge along the AR/OK border temperatures will fall rapidly after sunset. Temperatures will remain well below normal Wednesday into Thursday morning before sfc ridging begins to shift east of the area and S-SW winds return. Aloft, the slow moving deep cyclone across the Great Lakes will move northeastward with mid-level ridging approaching in its wake.
120 AM EDT Wed Oct 19 2022 Cold high pressure will build into the region from the west through Thursday. This high pressure will weaken and settle over the Southeast and Carolinas by the weekend, resulting in warming temperatures back up toward seasonal normals. Temperatures have already fallen into the lower 40s in the north and into the lower 50s near the NC/SC border. Temperatures should easily bottom out in the low to mid 30s tonight, with mid 30s more common across the Coastal Plain.
126 AM EDT Wed Oct 19 2022 High pressure builds into the area tonight bringing drier and cooler air to ENC with below normal temps forecast through Thursday. A cold but quiet night continues to unfold across Eastern NC with high pressure building in from the west. Temperatures have cooled into the low to mid 40s inland, but are struggling to drop further as a weak breeze is holding on due to a secondary front moving through. High pressure and continued CAA over the Southeast keeps dry air in place and builds confidence that temps only get into the upper 50s to around 60 across ENC.
Another cold night on tap for overnight into Thursday morning, with high pressure settling on top of the area. Warming a few more degrees on Thursday with highs generally in the low to mid 60s.
(Today through Thursday) It's another chilly night across the area with temperatures currently sitting in the low to mid 30s. Despite that, not much frost is around thanks to the low dew points and winds remaining around 5 kts. It looks like all of the area will get 50 degrees or warmer.
Most locations are in the low to mid 40's this morning with a few 50's in the Big Bend. A warming and drying trend begins today as NW flow aloft is replaced by ridging.
1150 PM CDT Tue Oct 18 2022 Cold high pressure will settle into the southern states overnight.
If any, lower elevations could see a trace of snow while the ridges could see an inch or two total by the end of the day. Dry conditions return with temperature moderation back to near 50 F as the upper low fills and begins to transition northeast.
A weak front will move across the area tonight, though with a downsloped airmass in its wake it will actually bring even warmer temperatures to the area on Thursday, with upper 70s to near 80 degrees common for highs.
(Today through Thursday Night ) An upper low continues over the eastern Great Lakes this morning with a strong upper ridge over the western half of the country. The upper low will move northeast Thursday night. High pressure is centered over the state this morning. Cold air which is very dry accompanies the high. Expect freezing temperatures in most of the CWA by sunrise, with some records likely. High pressure will keep clear skies over the state through Thursday. Lows tonight will be a bit warmer in the 30s, and warmer yet Thursday night, in the 40s.
By Thursday, mid to upper level ridging will begin to settle in across the Central Plains. Westerly winds at the surface will do little to make any wholesale changes to the forecast, though we can expect warmer afternoon highs in the upper 60s/lower 70s Thursday afternoon with dry weather remaining status.
As high pressure builds in from the west, a mostly clear sky and sunshine is expected today with slightly warmer max temperatures that are still 10 to 15 degrees below normal this afternoon. High pressure will result in lower winds tonight with a continued clear sky forecast. Zonal average low temperatures yesterday were below freezing for much of the region with lows in the upper 20s or lower across the higher elevations and plateau.
THe pattern this morning remains the same across the CONUS with a eastern trough/western ridge while northwest flow continues aloft across the Plains.
Southwest breezes on Thursday will create good mixing ahead of a cold front approaching from the northwest, though timing of the front is still uncertain. The period begins on Thursday night with a frontal boundary and weak trough crossing the region.
1023 PM MDT Tue Oct 18 2022 Upper-level analysis shows a low spinning over the Great Lakes region, with an amplified ridge over the western CONUS. At the surface, high pressure sits over the western Dakotas, resulting in light southeasterly winds across much of our CWA.
330 AM CDT Wed Oct 19 2022 Latest water vapor imagery is showing a highly amplified pattern with the upper low over the Great Lakes showing little movement since yesterday. Latest HREF run is showing the upper low beginning to slowly shift east by tomorrow. With with dry low air through a deep layer of the atmosphere and subsidence on the backside of the upper low, will keep the forecast dry through tomorrow.
135 AM EDT Wed Oct 19 2022 (06Z TAFS) VFR conditions are expected to prevail with gusty northerly winds through much of the day with a cold front passage.
1212 AM CDT Wed Oct 19 2022 Cold dry high pressure is over the CWA. RH values are quite low in the teens and twenty percents, though peak wind gusts so far today have been low as well, in the teens and low twenty mph range due to high pressure being overhead, so fire danger hasn't been much of a concern.
Highs will remain generally in the 40s with lows tonight in the low 30s.
Much warmer late week into the weekend. Still looking at record lows again this morning across the area with lows generally in the low to mid 20s. In the upper atmosphere, we have a closed upper low over the Great Lakes region, which is very slowly moving off to the northeast. To the west side of the low, northerly winds aloft have brought in the cold and dry air mass to the region. Some of the valleys there may dip into the low to mid 20s. Significant changes in the pattern are expected in the longer term forcast as the closed low lifts northeast and well into Canada on Thursday and Thursday night.
232 AM MDT Wed Oct 19 2022 Northerly flow aloft will once again continue today around an upper level high over the intermountain west. A short wave trough over the Northern Plains will dive south into the Central Plains by this evening. Overnight lows will be a little warmer because of the warming airmass, but low will still be chilly with readings in the mid 30s to mid 40s across northeast Colorado.
As the deep upper trough over the Great Lakes begins its shift to the east/northeast, the flow aloft gains more westerly component over the Plains. Highs should be 5 to 10 degrees warmer than yesterday's near record cool readings.
220 AM EDT Wed Oct 19 2022 Cold high pressure will build into the region from the west through Thursday. This high pressure will weaken and settle over the Southeast and Carolinas by the weekend, resulting in warming temperatures back up toward seasonal normals. A shear axis swinging through the base of the vortex is bringing considerable cloudiness to the central and S Appalachians, although this stratocu is having trouble getting past the higher terrain and should not be able to get into our CWA before the shear axis swings through and exits this morning, leaving a deeply dry and subsiding column over our area.
1226 AM CDT Wed Oct 19 2022 High pressure remains anchored over the Great Plains, and most of the wrap-around moisture that brought us our clouds today and flurries to the Cumberland Plateau is finally sliding off to the east. Cloud shield extends across western periphery of the trough axis located from OH through eastern KY. Temperatures have only warmed into the lower 40s along the Plateau, to the upper 40s to near 50 west. Moving on, a warmup will begin on Wednesday as heights rise and the thermal troughing begins to lift out. Still cold Wednesday night with near to slightly below freezing temps.
The cold air will deliver the first light snow accumulation of the season to the higher elevations in western Pennsylvania and end the growing season for many locations.
With clearing skies and steady W winds today, the mild NBM highs look good in most areas save for some warmer values across our NW zones to better match the even warmer MET and MAV numbers evident there.
320 AM EDT Wed Oct 19 2022 Early this morning, surface analysis reveals area of low pressure located to our northeast across southeast Ontario while to our west an expansive Canadian high is building southeast through the Plains region, resulting in slowly rising heights over the region. Broad upper trough will remain entrenched across the eastern CONUS through the short term period, with the stacked low currently centered over the southeastern tip of Ontario expected to gradually lift northward.
Much cooler and unsettled weather conditions return by late week and into the upcoming weekend as a frontal boundary sweeps across the region.
The overnight temperatures will dip a few degrees lower tonight; Lows will be in the mid 30s to low 40s over portions north of I-10 and in the low 40s to mid 50 over portions south of I-10. Some spots over the northernmost counties (such as Houston County) may see some frosty grass as temperatures get close to freezing, but will hold off on any freeze warnings, since it is expected to occur only over isolated areas. The highs will barely reach the 70s again in most locations, so expect highs to top out in the upper 60s over much of Southeast TX. Though it will be a few degrees warmer than tonight, expect another chilly night Wednesday overnight as lows dip again into the upper 30s to upper 40s inland and in the low to mid 50s along the coasts.
The upper level high continues over the Pacific Northwest, forcing northern flow over the Northern Plains. A thermal ridge will move in Thursday afternoon, bringing the warmest temperatures of the week.
613 AM CDT Wed Oct 19 2022 The upper low that has been the primary driver of the weather across the Great Lakes region since the weekend will finally begin lifting northeast tonight. One final upper trough axis rotating around the main low to the east will bring plenty of mid to upper-level clouds tonight that will place a floor on min temps in the upper 20s to low 30s for much of the area.
611 AM CDT Wed Oct 19 2022 The strong upper level low that brought frigid weather to our region will continue to progress east of the Great Lakes leaving northwesterly flow aloft behind it.
Upper level ridging contiues as the dominant feature. Expect one more day with sunny skies and calm winds, before tomorrow's ridge collapse.
302 AM MDT Wed Oct 19 2022 Current surface analysis shows a warm front from far eastern MT to the Black Hills and the NE panhandle. Upper level analysis shows persistent high pressure and ridging across the western US, with low pressure over the eastern Great Lakes region and a large scale trough across the eastern US. Temps early this morning range from some 20s toward central SD to the 40s and lower 50s across a good portion of northeast WY and the Black Hills, west of the warm front. A relatively quiet weather pattern continues through late week and into the first half of the weekend as ridge remains strong to the west of the area over the next couple of days.
Overall, a very nice fall day can be expected across West Central Texas today, with afternoon highs in the low to mid 70s. Skies will be mostly clear tonight, with warmer temperatures as low level moisture increases a bit. Lows by daybreak Thursday will range from the lower 50s across the Big Country, to the mid and upper 40s elsewhere.
502 AM MDT Wed Oct 19 2022 Current surface analysis shows a warm front from far eastern MT to the Black Hills and the NE panhandle. Upper level analysis shows persistent high pressure and ridging across the western US, with low pressure over the eastern Great Lakes region and a large scale trough across the eastern US. Temps early this morning range from some 20s toward central SD to the 40s and lower 50s across a good portion of northeast WY and the Black Hills, west of the warm front. A relatively quiet weather pattern continues through late week and into the first half of the weekend as ridge remains strong to the west of the area over the next couple of days.
These synoptic features are translating into a quiet/unseasonably cool night across the central TN Valley, as current temp trends range predom in the lower/mid 30s for most spots. With the upper trough axis continuing to help usher unseasonably cooler air into the SE region, afternoon temps will struggle to climb past the upper 50s, under predom sunny skies.
warmer air overspreads the area with high temperatures rebounding back into the warming back into the lower to upper 70s. Low temperatures wont be as cold as the previous several nights with readings in the lower 30s to around 40.
Then a big change occurs this week as a strong cold front brings widespread precipitation to northern Nevada. High pressure centered over Oregon lasts for one more day, then breaks down on Thursday.
605 AM CDT Wed Oct 19 2022 (Today through Thursday) It's another chilly night across the area with temperatures currently sitting in the low to mid 30s. Despite that, not much frost is around thanks to the low dew points and winds remaining around 5 kts. It looks like all of the area will get 50 degrees or warmer.
614 AM CDT Wed Oct 19 2022 Latest water vapor imagery is showing a highly amplified pattern with the upper low over the Great Lakes showing little movement since yesterday. Latest HREF run is showing the upper low beginning to slowly shift east by tomorrow. With with dry low air through a deep layer of the atmosphere and subsidence on the backside of the upper low, will keep the forecast dry through tomorrow.
The mid-morning update featured the dropping of the freeze warning for the ridges. If any, lower elevations could see a trace of snow while the ridges could see an inch or two total by the end of the day. Dry conditions return with temperature moderation back to near 50 F as the upper low fills and begins to transition northeast.
621 AM CDT Wed Oct 19 2022 (Today through Thursday Night ) An upper low continues over the eastern Great Lakes this morning with a strong upper ridge over the western half of the country. The upper low will move northeast Thursday night. High pressure is centered over the state this morning. Cold air which is very dry accompanies the high. Expect freezing temperatures in most of the CWA by sunrise, with some records likely. High pressure will keep clear skies over the state through Thursday. Lows tonight will be a bit warmer in the 30s, and warmer yet Thursday night, in the 40s.
(Today and tonight) Latest surface analysis shows high pressure spreading swd over the southern Plains now that the front has driven into the southern Gulf. Increasing influence from this high has allowed winds to relax, and now with clear skies, radiational cooling has dropped temperatures into the 30s across the board. Remaining portions of LA and southeast TX will remain in the low to mid 30s thru sunrise, but should remain above freezing. Deep trofing eclipsing the eastern US will persist for another day as its parent low center spins out over eastern Canada.
Early this morning, surface analysis reveals area of low pressure located to our northeast across southeast Ontario while to our west an expansive Canadian high is building southeast through the Plains region, resulting in slowly rising heights over the region. Broad upper trough will remain entrenched across the eastern CONUS through the short term period, with the stacked low currently centered over the southeastern tip of Ontario expected to gradually lift northward.
(Rest of Today) As high pressure continues to build southward towards the NW Gulf of Mexico, winds shift from more northerly to northwesterly today-- gusting up to 10 mph occasionally. As the trough shifts slowly eastward along the East Coast, cold air is still being advected southward through the TN Valley, bringing another chilly day with highs likely staying just below 60 degrees. While it is a *slight* warm up compared to yesterday's high temperatures in the low 50s, it is still below- normal as far as our climatological high temperatures go since our normal high temperatures for this time of year range from the upper 60s to mid 70s.
342 AM PDT Wed Oct 19 2022 A warming trend is likely to occur through Thursday due to ridging over the area. A return to normal and then perhaps below normal temperatures will be possible by the weekend as a trough of low pressure brings cooler air and precipitation to the area. Retrograding area of high pressure over the Great Basin will reform over the East Pacific through the remainder of the week and open the door for a cold system to drop out of the Gulf of Alaska into the PACNW.
Cooler with a chance of rain this weekend. Skies are mostly clear across interior NorCal early this morning as most of the high clouds associated with the cutoff low to the west of SoCal are now moving up into central California. High pressure will continue to strengthen today and Thursday as the cutoff low remains pretty stationary near 30N/130W. The upper level ridge will continue to push west for the end of the week and we will see falling heights as short waves pass to our north.
Upper level northerly flow on the backside of an eastern trough tonight will gradually shift around to the northwest during the day Thursday, before becoming more zonal Thursday night. Southerly winds ahead of this boundary have ushered warmer air into the region this afternoon, also allowing for some low relative humidity values. The boundary will exit the region to the east this evening, with ridging then building over the area late tonight into Thursday morning. Highs on Thursday will range from the lower to mid 60s across west central Minnesota and far northeastern South Dakota, to the mid 70s along and west of the Missouri River.
1240 PM CDT Wed Oct 19 2022 The upper low that has been the primary driver of the weather across the Great Lakes region since the weekend will finally begin lifting northeast tonight. One final upper trough axis rotating around the main low to the east will bring plenty of mid to upper-level clouds tonight that will place a floor on min temps in the upper 20s to low 30s for much of the area.
Warming trend will follow the wind shift, which will be noticed as early as this evening as warmer overnight lows will be situated across our western zones in E TX as lows trend in the low to mid 40s overnight, mid to upper 30s east of I-49 and I-30. This will attempt at dragging through a weakening warm front which may help aid in some additional sfc warming across our southwest and western zones as a subtle blip of 850mb warm air advection rides the leading edge of the mid level 500mb ridge axis.
The winds will transition to generally southerly as the axis of the high centers over the area. Clear skies will also accompany the high pressure.
Discussion: Upper level trough continues to dominate at least the eastern half of the CONUS this afternoon with the center of this trough across the Great Lakes and southern Ontario. An area of high pressure at the surface continues to slowly shift east across the southern plains and southern Mississippi River Valley. This may have an impact on overnight lows, but still expect temperatures to drop off quickly tonight as the boundary layer decouples with most locations still seeing minimum temperatures near or below freezing. High temperatures on Thursday will only be a couple of degrees warmer than today, still several degrees below normal.
1226 PM CDT Wed Oct 19 2022 (Today through Thursday) Post frontal cold air advection continues across the region as a deep longwave upper level trough still encompasses the entire eastern half of the country. As the apex of the upper trough starts to slide east today and tonight, overnight lows will not be quite as cold due to increasing 500mb heights. Thursday will be just the start of moderation as the trough to the east begins to lift out.
Another cold night is expected across the Mid-South with below freezing temperatures expected overnight mainly east of the Mississippi River.
A cold front moved through the Keys this morning, with thunderstorms, areas of rain, a short blast of 20 to 25 knot winds, and falling dewpoints. Temperatures are in the lower to mid 70s, with dewpoints nearing the lower 60s. The cold front will stall over the eastern Straits of Florida or Cuba toward the end of the week, with several days of moderate northeast breezes persisting. Sub-VFR CIGS are also forecast for both EYW and MTH post-cold frontal passage. Both the showers and the lower ceilings will taper off by the afternoon to evening hours, and rain chances will diminish overnight.
137 PM EDT Wed Oct 19 2022 Low pressure will drift northeast into southeastern Canada while high pressure builds in from the southern Plains. most sites will freeze The southern Appalachians were still located within the base of a large upper level low encompassing much of the eastern CONUS. Most of the mid and upper level energy with this system was located farther north closer to the low's center. Stratocumulus associated with a lee trough still covered the Blue Ridge mountains and foothills, and had spilled over into the Piedmonts. the The ridges will stay mixed and slightly warmer than the lower elevations. Thursday's high temperatures are expected to be warmer than today's, but still around 10F colder than normal.
312 PM CDT Wed Oct 19 2022 Very quiet weather to end the week as high pressure at the surface continues to move east of the region, and no other major systems set up over the Upper Midwest.
Warmer and remaining somewhat breezy otherwise on Thursday.
1035 AM CDT Wed Oct 19 2022 (Today through Thursday) Post frontal cold air advection continues across the region as a deep longwave upper level trough still encompasses the entire eastern half of the country. As the apex of the upper trough starts to slide east today and tonight, overnight lows will not be quite as cold due to increasing 500mb heights. Thursday will be just the start of moderation as the trough to the east begins to lift out.
This is a couple degrees warmer than the NBM 50th percentile.
(The rest of today ) After a record cold start this morning across the forecast area, temps have climbed above freezing.
Then a big change occurs as a strong cold front brings widespread precipitation to northern and central Nevada this weekend.
Although surface winds staying up kept temperatures warmer than forecast with BNA only dropping to 36 degrees, parts of Davidson saw sub-freezing temps such as the coop sites at Shelby Bottoms (31) and Warner Park (27). (Today through Thursday) It's another chilly night across the area with temperatures currently sitting in the low to mid 30s. Despite that, not much frost is around thanks to the low dew points and winds remaining around 5 kts. It looks like all of the area will get 50 degrees or warmer.