Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1146 PM CDT Sat Apr 8 2017 Closed low at H5 over the northeast Pacific with wave affecting northern California and the Pacific northwest. Broad ridge from Texas into the Hudson Bay and closed low over Maine. At the surface cold front moving to the southeast over western Nebraska. Boundary over western Nebraska this evening will be the focus for thunderstorm development over mainly northern Nebraska as impulses are ejected from the trough to the west. Dewpoints in the 40s approaching the low 50s over Oneill tonight. West to northwest winds tonight will keep boundary layer mixed and with cloud cover and warm ridge aloft lows expected in the 40s and 50s. Upper low closes off over eastern Wyoming. Upper low directly over head with precipitation and low clouds will keep temperatures in the 40s and 50s for daytime highs.
Upper level ridge for Sunday with partly to mostly sunny skies.
Actual cold front/wind shift just exiting the forecast area. Any precip will be mostly rain, as Showalters stay positive behind the cold front. As for temperatures, we will still be under the thermal ridge overnight with plenty of high and mid clouds. Readings on Sunday will be tricky with the cold front coming through.
/issued 329 PM CDT Sat Apr 8 2017/ (Tonight and Sunday) Above normal temperatures are forecast overnight, with lows mainly in the low to mid 60.
642 PM CDT Sat Apr 8 2017 19z/2pm surface analysis shows ridge of high pressure extending from Quebec southward to the Gulf Coast. a 991mb low is noted over Manitoba, with a cold front trailing into the Northern and Central Plains. The amount of cloud cover will influence Sunday afternoon high temperatures, resulting in slightly cooler readings than previously forecast across the W/SW KILX CWA. As the cold front nears, a few showers will develop late Sunday night. Models have correctly backed off on the areal coverage of precip due to a lack of deep-layer moisture from the Gulf of Mexico, which will be largely blocked by surface ridging over the Deep South.
712 PM EDT Sat Apr 8 2017 High pressure moves off the east coast on Sunday.
Mid-level cooling and ascent from the upper trough could result in an isolated severe storm or two along the dryline in the 20Z-23Z time-frame although dryline convergence appears weak with some cap concerns. Thinking there will be a somewhat better chance of storms initiating or developing into a small cluster or two in the 00z-06Z period over the Flint Hills/Southeast KS, as the Pacific cold front overtakes the dryline with potentially increased convergence.
Any precip will be mostly rain, as Showalters stay positive behind the cold front. As for temperatures, we will still be under the thermal ridge overnight with plenty of high and mid clouds. Readings on Sunday will be tricky with the cold front coming through.
1142 PM CDT Sat Apr 8 2017 Gusty south winds have brought much warmer readings into the region today with temperatures in the middle to upper 70s across the region. These winds will only decrease slightly overnight, keeping overnight lows unseasonably mild in the lower to middle 60s. Strong capping inversion will be the big deciding factor behind any strong storms that may develop Sunday evening ahead of a cold front moving in from the west. These latter solutions seem more reasonable, especially since overall synoptic-scale ascent ahead of the upper trough doesn't appear to be strong enough to overcome such a strong inversion.
/Tonight through Sunday/ An upper trough will push into the Plains and deepen a little which will put Iowa in southwest flow aloft. Most of the forcing will remain West of the low and NW of the frontal boundary so any showers/storms that develop towards 12Z should remain W or NW of the forecast area. By late in the afternoon and beyond, soundings show the cap eroding away and stronger forcing pushes in as the upper trough noses into Western Iowa.
A deep upper level trough that was draped along the eastern coast of the United States is moving east out into the Atlantic Ocean. Upper high pressure is now moving in from the west over the southeastern conus.
This smaller storm system developed from a vorticity maxima embedded in the trailing edge of a broader mean trough that impacted our region earlier in the week. The surface cold front on the leading edge of this smaller storm quickly slid across the state late last night through early this morning, bringing a quick burst of moderate to heavy rain and gusty southerly winds to the region. Snow also stuck over our higher elevations and ridges. For coastal locations, temperatures are not expected to drop too far below seasonal normals due to the moderating influence of the nearby warmer sea surface temperatures. A low amplitude ridge will build over the region tomorrow, leading to drier conditions and slightly warmer temperatures for most of Sunday.
Breezy, warm day in progress as warm advection on southerly winds gusting to around 30 mph, and thinning mid-high clouds/increasing solar insolation working in tandem to propel temperatures into the lower to middle 70s over much of the area. Surface analysis places low pressure near Gwinner, ND with a warm front extending into northern IA and a cold front trailing through central NE.
Water vapor imagery from the latest GOES-16 channels indicate plenty of dry air at the low and mid levels which will also limit the amount of precipitation falling from these showers. Winds are expected to subside below advisory criteria late tonight as we approach the midnight hour, but gusty winds will continue overnight as the cold front approaches. The cold front is expected to pass through the UT/CO border after midnight and will yield an unseasonably cool Sunday with 700 mb temps of about -6C throughout the day. As the cold front pushes through the region, models are indicating an area of snow showers passing through NE Utah and NW Colorado Sunday morning.
1028 PM EDT Sat Apr 8 2017 High pressure builds over the local area tonight.
We could get cold enough that locations in the higher elevations/Northeast Tennessee/Southwest Virginia could get some patchy fog overnight. Chattanooga Airport, TN 41 78 50 80 / 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 38 76 49 78 / 0 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 39 77 49 78 / 0 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 32 75 43 78 / 0 0 0 0.
Upper level ridge shifting east of the area today with develop lower pressure out of the Rockies. By Sunday night, expect lows in the lower 70s area wide. Highs Sunday above normal from the mid 80s east to the lower to mid 90s west.
Expect tonight to be much milder than the last two as the continued eastward progress of the high will establish a modest pressure gradient over the area, and prevent winds from decoupling. Temps will also rise accordingly, roughly 10 degrees warmer than this afternoon based on low-level thickness trends.
Surface cold front will move through the local area Sunday with breezy/windy west to northwest winds behind it through the afternoon. NAM considerably more unstable than the GFS, but the NAM model surface dew points look unreasonably moist, in the lower 50s, given the downsloping surface winds, while shorter term hires models appear more reasonable with dew points in the 30s and dropping behind the front. There will be a fairly large temperature gradient across the area on Sunday afternoon due to the front, ranging from the lower 60s in northeast Colorado to the upper 70s in north central Kansas.
Upper air analysis this morning showed a large amplitude ridge extending from Mexico through the plains to Central Canada with a trough moving into the west coast. At the surface, high pressure was centered to the east and winds across our CWA were generally from the south. The west coast upper trough will push into the ridge during this period and turn the flow over Texas to the southwest by Sunday night. Sunday night a cold front will move through West Texas and showers may develop ahead of the front across our CWA.
745 PM EDT Sat Apr 8 2017 The upper ridge will drift eastward across the state overnight. Have kept the overnight lows on the cooler side of guidance numbers as a result.
730 PM EDT Sat Apr 8 2017 High pressure and a dry airmass will provide for seasonably warm temperatures through the weekend.
934 PM EDT Sat Apr 8 2017 High pressure and a dry airmass will provide for seasonably warm temperatures through the weekend.
1151 PM EDT Sat Apr 8 2017 High pressure will build in from the west tonight before passing offshore on Sunday.
Surface cyclone driving the pressure gradient increase deepens over Nebraska tomorrow (too far away to really crank up the winds) before trekking toward the Upper Midwest on Sunday night.
High pressure is building to the north, which will bring the wind around to the east beginning tomorrow.
In the low levels of the atmosphere, an area of high pressure will be centered over the Mid-Atlantic United States overnight. In the mid levels of the atmosphere, a trough of low pressure will be located just offshore of the east coast of the Florida peninsula tonight. In the upper levels of the atmosphere, a trough of low pressure will be located over north Florida overnight.
The weather will also remain dry tonight, as high pressure will remain over the Florida Peninsula. High pressure is building to the north, which will bring the wind around to the east beginning tomorrow.
702 PM CDT Sat Apr 8 2017 Cirrus clouds have kept temperatures much cooler than forecasted today. Tonight a cold front will push through the area, shifting winds to the northwest.
1206 PM EDT Thu Nov 3 2016 A cold front continues to dip south across the forecast area this afternoon. High pressure will build in on Friday and continue to influence the area through the weekend. The cold front has progressed most of the way through the forecast area as of noon. Most of the precip has moved out of the area as a low pressure system continues to push eastward. However any breaks will be short lived as a upstream trough/secondary front dips down late this afternoon/evening. Will continue the chance pop NERN OH and NWRN PA as outlined in the near term portion through the first half of the night tapering to slight chance late as high pressure and drier air begin to move in. The remainder of the near term will be dominated by high pressure and fairly dry air.
As this system approaches, clouds will continue to increase allowing for mild temperatures this morning and slightly cooler afternoon highs. But depending on how quickly the clouds diminish, some valleys could dip into the lower 40s by daybreak. Friday afternoon, temperatures are only expected to reach the low 60s which is normal for this time of year. The ridge aloft is expected to be transient, as a progressive trough drops ESE across the Great Lakes and New England by midweek. This brings NW flow aloft for our area and allows a weakening cold front to drop in from the north. As a cold front moves through the region this afternoon and evening, ceilings are expected to lower to MVFR/IFR.
A large upper ridge over North America will bring some sunshine to Western Washington today and Friday.
916 AM EDT Thu Nov 3 2016 High pressure surface and aloft will hold over west central and southwest Florida for one more day with continued warm temperatures across the region.
Thursday will be another mild day with dry conditions as northwest flow aloft will be in place as an upper level ridge approaches from the west. In addition to the warmer temperatures, minimum relative humidities will dip into the low 20 percent range in the far southwest.
908 AM EDT Thu Nov 3 2016 A cold front crossing the area this morning will reach southern Ohio this afternoon. High pressure will build in on Friday and continue to influence the area through the weekend. Cold front moving through the area at the time of this issuance. Will continue the chance pop NERN OH and NWRN PA as outlined in the near term portion through the first half of the night tapering to slight chance late as high pressure and drier air begin to move in. The remainder of the near term will be dominated by high pressure and fairly dry air.
755 AM EDT Thu Nov 3 2016 High pressure over the region will weaken today ahead of an approaching cold front. The cold front will move through the area late tonight. Cooler weather will occur behind the front over the weekend. It will be a warm day ahead of the approaching cold front. The cold front is forecast to move through the area during the 06z to 12z time frame tonight. Moisture should remain limited with h85 westerly flow ahead of the cold front. A little more moisture and lift associated with the upper trough supports the higher pop in the north. Otherwise, it should be dry behind the cold front. The GFS and ECMWF displayed ridging dominating through the medium-range period.
Dominant high pressure over the region and a robust inversion around 7500 feet should limit vertical development today with most showers remaining light to moderate.
634 AM CDT Thu Nov 3 2016 07z/2am surface analysis shows slow-moving cold front along the I-72 corridor. then will drop into the lower to middle 40s tonight. The coolest day of the forecast period will be Friday, when deep-layer northerly flow keeps temps in the lower to middle 60s. After that, upper ridging will build back into the region, allowing temperatures to climb back into the upper 60s to around 70 degrees over the upcoming weekend.
642 AM CDT Thu Nov 3 2016 Cold front extending from near PPQ southwest through JEF will continue moving southeastward today. Cooler temperatures can be expected today due to the low level cold air advection behind the cold front along with low level cloudiness inhibiting solar insolation this morning. Although temperatures will be much cooler compared to the recent stretch of unseasonably warm weather, the highs today will still be about 10 degrees above normal with the lows tonight about 5 degrees above normal for early November.
/Issued 327 AM CDT Thu Nov 3 2016/ Cold front currently moving into northeast Oklahoma this morning near BVO extending SSW to west of MLC.
1000 AM MDT Thu Nov 3 2016 Latest upper air analysis has a ridge over the western CONUS. Underneath the ridge is a closed low in the process of becoming cut-off over the Gulf of California. Today and tomorrow dry conditions with warmer than normal temperature are expected. The cut-off low over the Desert Southwest will slowly move northeast and merge back into the upper level flow.
657 AM CDT Thu Nov 3 2016 Tonight-Friday: Ridge axis drifts across forecast area tonight. Present indications are that a slight downslope component on western side of ridge should preclude widespread radiational fog.
The cold front has dissipated as it moved inland. In the Applegate, Illinois and Rogue Valley, temperatures are expected to drop into the lower to mid 30s and frost is possible. The cities of Medford and Grants Pass may be too warm for frost but surrounding areas of the Rogue Valley could see temperatures about 5 degrees cooler than in those cities. Another area of concern is the Shasta valley and part of SE Siskiyou County along Highway 89 could see overnight temperatures drop below freezing.
527 AM MDT Thu Nov 3 2016 Latest upper air analysis has a ridge over the western CONUS. Underneath the ridge is a closed low in the process of becoming cut-off over the Gulf of California. Today and tomorrow dry conditions with warmer than normal temperature are expected. The cut-off low over the Desert Southwest will slowly move northeast and merge back into the upper level flow.
An area of low pressure near Rocky Point today will bring scattered showers and thunderstorms to the area through Friday, with most favored locations north to east of Tucson. Dry conditions and warmer temperatures will return area-wide this weekend. Upper low this morning is positioned just SE of Puerto Penasco/Rocky Point Sonora and will very slowly drift to the northeast today and be near the international border around South/Central Pima County tonight. Heading into this evening and tonight, the focus will shift more towards Graham and Greenlee Counties where deeper moisture and dynamics remain as the upper low starts to track a bit more to the northeast. The upper low will continue to shift to the northeast on Friday with showers and thunderstorms continuing for Graham and Greenlee Counties with the back edge generally pushing to the east into New Mexico Friday evening.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 82 57 72 45 / 10 20 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 79 54 70 41 / 10 40 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 80 53 70 42 / 20 50 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 75 48 65 35 / 30 50 0 0.
/issued 415 AM CDT Thu Nov 3 2016/ A somewhat cooler airmass will spread across Oklahoma and north Texas over the next couple of days. However, once the upper low reaches Oklahoma, it may remain overhead for the next several days.
Have gone with areal coverage pops of isold to sct rain showers this morning across this area, then retained a dry fcst areawide for this afternoon as the upper level low pressure system moves little from its position in extreme nw Mexico just south of the AZ border. Have also maintained a dry fcst for tonight as all models move the upper level low pressure system very little, perhaps to near Tucson, AZ by 12Z Friday.
Upper ridge over the area with a little cirrus will support a mostly sunny to sunny day. An impressive 2-3 standard deviations upper ridge will control the weather in the short term.
The combination of rainfall last night and light northeasterly winds through the low layers will increase the potential for fog development overnight, especially as ceilings lift and clear through the early morning hours. /issued 415 AM CDT Thu Nov 3 2016/ A somewhat cooler airmass will spread across Oklahoma and north Texas over the next couple of days. However, once the upper low reaches Oklahoma, it may remain overhead for the next several days.
633 AM CDT Thu Nov 3 2016 A cluster of SHRA/TSRA will move to the northeast across the Hill Country this morning while SHRA/TSRA mainly along and behind weak cold front currently over Central Texas will spread to the south across the Hill Country and South Central Texas today and tonight. Upper air analysis last evening showed a ridge over the eastern half of the country and a cutoff low centered over the northern Gulf of California. At the surface, a cold front extended from a low near Breckenridge to Pecos to El Paso. The cold front will move slowly southward today reaching our northern border early this afternoon and our southern border by early Friday morning.
1129 AM CDT Thu Nov 3 2016 Quick update to increase high temperatures for today a couple of degrees over the previous forecast given a slightly warmer airmass than yesterday, using observed highs from yesterday as a base from where to adjust from. Thursday will be another mild day with dry conditions as northwest flow aloft will be in place as an upper level ridge approaches from the west. In addition to the warmer temperatures, minimum relative humidities will dip into the low 20 percent range in the far southwest.
622 AM CDT Thu Nov 3 2016 Latest water vapor imagery shows split flow aloft over the nation's mid section with a building ridge over the western states and a closed low over the Mexico/AZ border. At the surface, a large area of high pressure was centered over the High Plains.
Western upper trof has split today with the southern lobe dropping into Mexico while the northern stream has swept into the Great Lakes at this hour. Anticipate clearing will make its way across the forecast area by around noon, and leave sunny skies behind and should be able to mix highs into the low 70s. The first few periods should bring steadily increasing and thickening high cloud as the moisture aloft works its way east from the old upper low the weak upper ridge.
Expect this trend to continue as a cold front approaches from the northwest today. Friday's temperatures will still be warm for this time of the year, but much cooler than what we've been seeing.
800 AM EDT Thu Nov 3 2016 Warm conditions are expected today as a cold front approaches from the northwest. Canadian high pressure will bring colder air into the Carolinas Friday through the weekend. Pictures from space in the water vapor channel show well the upper ridge over the Gulf states and Carolinas, while the IR channel depicts an overall scarcity of clouds across the region. Overnight temperatures will remain mild ahead of an approaching cold front. Primary headline this period is air mass change as high pressure cell from Canada moves SE into the area.
At the surface, ridging will be pushed south and west as westerly flow over the Appalachians develops lee troughing, forecast to spread into the Tri- State region late this afternoon. While a stray light shower or two will be possible along the trough, the main impacts will be increasing cloud cover from northwest to southeast through the afternoon. By this evening, our next cold front will just be entering the Southeast and Tennessee Valley.
735 AM EDT Thu Nov 3 2016 Ridging aloft will get suppressed today and tonight as trough deepening over the Great Lakes pushes a front into the TN valley. Temperatures remain warm today but a little cooler max temperatures on Friday especially across the north. 41 Decent CAA kicking in behind short term front with a very dry airmass setting up shop for the weekend as the H5 ridge amplifies into the Great Lakes.
618 AM CDT Thu Nov 3 2016 Aloft: Split flow was over the Wrn USA with a newly-formed low over AZ and a ridge to its N. The ridge will gradually drift E and be over the fcst area tonight. Part of this high will break off and head E into the region today. but temps will warm into the low 70s.
905 AM PDT Thu Nov 3 2016 A weak weather disturbance will exit the region by midday and a ridge of high pressure will rebound this afternoon for dry weather through the end of the week.
922 AM MDT Thu Nov 3 2016 A Chinook Arch persists over N-central MT this morning even as the ridge axis aloft has moved east of our forecast area. Dense freezing fog has developed around West Yellowstone, but observations suggest the fog is localized to that area. High pressure over Central and Southwest Montana will keep the region dry and stable.
Mostly sunny skies with high clouds expected through the short term period with an upper level ridge over the Western United States.
A strong cold front will sweep across the waters Friday producing Small Craft Advisory conditions during the afternoon and eve.
High pressure will return today and Friday with dry conditions.
/issued 452 AM EDT Thu Nov 3 2016/ High pressure continues to be anchored across the southeastern states and across the Florida peninsula and regional Gulf and Atlantic waters. The 00z sounding indicated a prominent low level version with moisture trapped in the lower levels with additional moisture in the upper levels. High pressure will linger across the region today, but the pressure gradient will start to lessen and regional winds will start to decrease. A low level inversion will persist today with moisture restricted to the lower levels with additional moisture in the upper levels. The guidance trends continue to indicate a cold front entering north Florida late Friday, with just isolated showers across the Atlantic waters and metro areas expected in advance of the front on Friday.
1019 AM EDT Thu Nov 3 2016 A crossing cold front will generate showers today and will usher in more seasonable temperature.
946 AM EDT Thu Nov 3 2016 A cold front will move southeast through the region today, providing occasional chances of showers, and bringing an end to the record warmth that had been in place over the Ohio Valley. Much cooler and drier air will move in behind the front, as high pressure gradually moves into the area from the upper midwest. Cold front has moved into the northwest part of the forecast area and will continue southeast through the day.