Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
With the approach of a frontal trough, expected to be across north FL by late day, the high pressure center over the western Atlc and associated ridging will drift further eastward away from the FL peninsula. For now, will keep 30 to 40 PoPs areawide until something shows me otherwise as the mid/upper levels are not overly impressive, though we are a bit cooler aloft than recent days. Weak frontal trough approaches from the NW later tonight. Winds are forecast to veer more S/SSW later tonight ahead of an approaching weak frontal trough.
Winds should diminish by this evening due to nocturnal cooling and a weak cold front. /issued 253 AM CDT Mon May 1 2017/ Our temperature roller coaster ride will continue this week with highs well above normal to start the week followed by a cold front midweek. Highs will reach mostly into the 80's this afternoon and with all the wind we have had lately, it will be a very nice day! Even warmer conditions are expected Tuesday ahead of another strong cold front.
940 AM EDT Mon May 1 2017 A cold front will bring widespread showers and thunderstorms today, followed by much cooler temperatures through late week. Upper trough will pivot eastward overnight shower chances lingering.
1147 AM EDT Mon May 1 2017 An approaching cold front today will move through the forecast area this evening.
A short wave riding over an offshore long wave ridge will push a front onshore this afternoon into tonight.
/issued 500 AM CDT Mon May 1 2017/ Upper level trough continues to lift northward this morning into the middle/upper MS Valley with increasingly drier air evident on water vapor imagery spilling behind the low. At the surface, high pressure is now dominating while the departing low to our north is is still allowing for a strong pressure gradient along the middle River Valley and farther eastward into southern Arkansas and north central Louisiana. Highs will range from the mid to upper 70s north to near 80 degrees along I-20 and slightly warmer farther south toward Toledo Bend Country.
1028 AM EDT Mon May 1 2017 Currently - High pressure that had brought days of breezy/windy conditions is finally moving out to the east as a large low moves into the eastern United States. Temperatures are already in the lower 80s with dew points in the mid 70s. Winds will continue trending downwards over the next couple of days as high pressure to our northeast continues retreat slowly eastwards.
Isolated to scattered showers are expected this afternoon over much of the area, with the best coverages over the higher terrain.
Still getting areas or bands of light rain or showers rotating around the low, particularly across parts of IA and northwest MO. Any precipitation should shift northeast of our forecast area by this evening as the low continues to move further northeast of the region. Cool conditions will continue tonight as the low level clouds advect northeast of the forecast area and the surface winds gradually weaken.
941 AM EDT Mon May 1 2017 A cold front will move east of the area today. Cooler and drier air will filter in behind the front on Tuesday.
Mid-high cloud still rotating around the western periphery of the upper low continue move over our CWA. I still anticipate highs near 50 where snowpack is, while locations less impacted may reach the lower 60s.
740 AM EDT Mon May 1 2017 An increase in moisture ahead of an approaching cold front may support some MVFR cigs at the terminals between 15-18Z otherwise mainly VFR will prevail. A robust upper low over the lower Missouri Valley troughs down to the northwestern Gulf of Mexico while an upper ridge centered offshore the southeast U. Atlantic high pressure near Latitude 30 North and 65-70 West Longitude extends across FL to the east Gulf. The upper level closed low along with it/s trough tracks northeast. becoming an open trough over Quebec. while the Yucatan portion of the upper ridge nudges northward over the Gulf.
An upper level low will track from Iowa into the Great Lakes Region. The best moisture will be in the H7-H5 layer, with the lower levels somewhat drier. Warmer H85 temperatures of 7-11c will mix down for highs mostly in the lower 60s. Slightly cooler upper 50s across the far southeastern zones, where recent snowfall will be melting. Tuesday begins dry as high pressure tries to build into the area.
A deep upper low will lift from the mid-MS River valley into the Great Lakes today. Midlevel clouds near the southern periphery of this low will affect northern portions of the Midsouth today and may even bring a few afternoon sprinkles to northwest Tennessee.
A cold front will reach the northern sites towards the end of the period and bring northerly winds and some mid level clouds. /Issued 355 AM CDT Mon May 1 2017/ Pleasant weather expected today across the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles as yesterday's powerful low pressure system continues to lift northeast, well away from the southern plains.
Nwly flow aloft will be over the area Tue thru Tue night as a disorganized upper level trough moves across. Overall we see a good shot of snow in the mtns however accumulations should be on the lower end of advisory criteria. For Thu and Fri an upper level ridge will build into the area. By the weekend a stg storm system will be over California as the upper level ridge shifts east by Sun into the central plains. At the surface, the low level flow will be sely across the plains which will eventually allow for deeper low lvl moisture to move in especially by Sun.
Dry conditions, mostly clear skies, and generally light winds will prevail throughout the week as high pressure builds over the Southwest.
Low temperatures tonight will be near ten degrees warmer than this morning's lows.
Strong mid level low pressure is currently over northwest MO and will continue to lift northeastward today. Mid level moisture has managed to warp completely around the low pressure. The low level temperature profile in this region is supporting a mixture of rain and snow.
As an upper level low moves northeast from the Midwest across the Great Lakes into Ontario and Quebec, an upper level trough will drop to the southeast from the Pacific Northwest to the Rockies.
/Issued 325 AM CDT Mon May 1 2017/ Large upper low responsible for heavy rainfall over the weekend continues slow progress northeast. Wrap around low clouds will gradually clear this morning as as a result, temperatures will be much warmer this afternoon.
1057 AM CDT Mon May 1 2017 Wrap around cloud cover in association with the departing upper level low continues to decrease across far northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas.
A fully mature upper level cyclone centered over eastern Iowa this morning will continue to move east today. Temperatures will remain seasonably cool with highs ranging from the lower 60s north to the lower 70s south. A deep upper low will lift from the mid-MS River valley into the Great Lakes today. Midlevel clouds near the southern periphery of this low will affect northern portions of the Midsouth today and may even bring a few afternoon sprinkles to northwest Tennessee.
LWA will remain in effect across ne portions of cwa, where base of upper trough yielding winds around 15 mph attm, and higher gusts expected with daytime heating in dry air. /issued 500 AM CDT Mon May 1 2017/ Upper level trough continues to lift northward this morning into the middle/upper MS Valley with increasingly drier air evident on water vapor imagery spilling behind the low. At the surface, high pressure is now dominating while the departing low to our north is is still allowing for a strong pressure gradient along the middle River Valley and farther eastward into southern Arkansas and north central Louisiana. Highs will range from the mid to upper 70s north to near 80 degrees along I-20 and slightly warmer farther south toward Toledo Bend Country.
However, low level southwest flow and a thermal ridge will bring much warmer temperatures to the area this afternoon.
Not much in the way of heating anticipated today and high temperatures confined to the lower 50s as clouds build back in with the ample low level moisture getting lifted by the cyclonic flow. In addition, cannot rule out a shower or two today, particularly in the northern tier of the state, closer to the low center as it moves to the northeast. Tuesday expected to be a few degrees warmer as sunshine returns, albeit briefly, to the region.
Models do indicate a weak axis of convergence along the Laramie Range, and a secondary axis near the Pine Ridge this afternoon. High res models show this activity as well, so kept POP between 20 to 35 percent across the high elevations of SE Wyoming including and just east of the Laramie Range as well as further north near the Pine Ridge. Another round of showers are expected on Tuesday and may linger through Tuesday night as the next trough axis digs southward across the high plains. Models show better dynamics with this trough as a strong 120kt jet max moves southward into Wyoming and western Colorado. Will have to monitor the high elevation mountain passes for locally heavy snowfall Tuesday afternoon with some models indicating high elevation snow squall activity.
A weak cold front over central Utah will move through southern Utah today. Strong high pressure will build over the region for the latter half of the week. A weak cold front is draped over central Utah this morning, near a KTPH-KPVU-KRKS line and will continue south today as it weakens. However, drop in 700 mb temps looks modest, down to -2C at best, so maxes tomorrow will be similar to today over northern Utah and a little warmer over southern Utah.
Early morning water vapor imagery indicates that the center of the mid-level cyclone was located over northern MO, and is expected to continue to track to the northeast through Iowa this morning. To the northwest of this cyclone a well-developed TROWAL extended from northern IA into northeast NEb. With the sunshine and decent mixing today we should see highs rebound into the 50s most areas, but a bit cooler in the snowpack areas.
Issued by the National Weather Service Office in Tucson AZ 915 AM MST Mon May 1 2017 Dry conditions, mostly clear skies, and generally light winds will prevail throughout the week as high pressure builds over the Southwest.
728 AM EDT Mon May 1 2017 A cold front will bring widespread showers and thunderstorms today, followed by much cooler temperatures through late week. Large closed low pressure will lift toward the Great Lakes today, dragging a cold front across the region. Upper trough will pivot eastward overnight shower chances lingering.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 73 51 77 54 / 80 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 73 50 73 51 / 90 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 73 50 73 51 / 90 0 0 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 74 47 70 49 / 80 0 0 0 NC.
WV imagery indicates a strong closed off upper low lifting northeast out of the Central Plains into the Upper Midwest. Near the surface, a weak area of high pressure is situated across southern Colorado. As this system moves out into the Plains tonight a surface boundary/weak cold front will move south out of Nebraska and into Northern Kansas. Tonight will need to monitor the potential for fog development but with increasing clouds ahead of the approaching upper level trough am unsure just how dense or widespread this fog may be. In addition to this increase in cloud cover ahead of the approaching upper level trough there may be enough instability and lift in the mid levels to produce some very light precipitation.
/issued 435 AM CDT Mon May 1 2017/ SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday): Upper level low continues to lift northeast across the midwest and into the Great Lakes region with zonal flow prevailing across southern Texas.
This weekend through the beginning of the work week an upper level low pressure system will move over the Great Basin and northern Rockies, while steering dry air over New Mexico from the southwest and west.
914 PM EDT Sat Jun 10 2017 Building high pressure will bring dry weather and warm weather for the start of the new week.
Water vapor channels/RGBs show the presence of a broad upper level ridge across about the SE quad of the CONUS, interrupted by a short wave low over SE Texas. Dew point temps have risen with the loss of daytime mixing, but may begin a general decline as the night progresses, with most values remaining in the low/mid 60s. Sunday will be another warm and sunny day across the area, with the influence of the ridge remaining over the area.
/issued 300 PM CDT Sat Jun 10 2017/ Weak upper low centered over SE TX trapped under the upper ridge axis over the ern half of the CONUS.
Meanwhile a low pressure system nearing the Oregon coast will slowly move inland overnight and some showers will persist over the region. Minor adjustments were done to the low temps and now the present short term forecast appears on track.
The upper level low responsible for the recent unsettled weather will continue to move further away as it nears the northern California border, resulting in a decreasing threat of showers for Western Washington Sunday.
A stationary front extended across the High Plains this afternoon. Compressional warming and strong southerly winds have caused temperatures to be in the mid 90s across the High Plains.
1059 PM CDT Sat Jun 10 2017 Heights building across the Nation's midsection this afternoon as a deep upper trough continues digging into the Pacific Northwest.
935 PM CDT Sat Jun 10 2017 Water vapor channels/RGBs show the presence of a broad upper level ridge across about the SE quad of the CONUS, interrupted by a short wave low over SE Texas. Dew point temps have risen with the loss of daytime mixing, but may begin a general decline as the night progresses, with most values remaining in the low/mid 60s. Sunday will be another warm and sunny day across the area, with the influence of the ridge remaining over the area.
632 PM CDT Sat Jun 10 2017 Heights building across the Nation's midsection this afternoon as a deep upper trough continues digging into the Pacific Northwest.
Southerly flow in the low to mid levels between these features has brought deeper moisture over the region and KLCH 00Z sounding shows precip water now up to 1.
/issued 250 PM CDT Sat Jun 10 2017/ A beautiful summer afternoon is ongoing around the region, with temperatures currently in the low to mid 80s under mostly sunny skies. Meanwhile, upper height analysis positions the region under a building ridge, with a trough axis extended down the east coast.
1154 PM EDT Sat Jun 10 2017 Building high pressure will bring dry weather and warm weather for the start of the new week.
Still thinking some gradual moisture return from the south, which is evident in the low level water vapor imagery. Upper levels remain weakly ridged over region through Sunday night, but this ridge is far from dominating and the capping inversion we have enjoyed the past few days continues erode. Cannot rule out the possibility of some kind of weak wave moving into the area under the weak upper ridge, however any convection should be highly diurnal in nature.
Afternoon readings were in the low to mid 80s, and most places will rise another 2-3 degrees by 21z. Upper level ridging continues to build into the region, and a recent surface analysis revealed high pressure over the Carolinas. Readings in the low to mid 60s are expected around sunrise on Sunday. Steady southwest flow in the lower levels of the atmosphere will continue to advect in warmer air, and we'll see highs on Sunday top out in the 86-91 degree range.
Unseasonably cool temperatures will persist across the region through Sunday as an upper level low arrives over northern California. An unseasonably deep and cold upper low is centered over the Oregon Coast this evening and an associated upper trough currently dominates the western states. This upper trough, combined with brisk onshore winds, resulted in temperatures today that were well below normal across inland areas. The upper low to our north is forecast to drop south into northern California late tonight and Sunday. But the most important potential weather impact of this upper low is the possibility of convective precipitation.
The strong upper low is moving onto the coast this evening. Showers and isolated thunderstorms will occur near the low, especially in the afternoons and early evenings. Winds will be moderate at times as low pressure develops at the surface in response to the upper low.
Elsewhere, an upper level trough extends over the Pacific Northwest to the offshore waters. Thus leaned towards warmer guidance.
521 PM MDT Sat Jun 10 2017 PAC NW Upper trough continues to support periodic impulses into the region, supporting a wavering frontal boundary over the FA.
It will be little warmer tonight as we are in a weak southerly flow, with little more moisture. Dry (no rain) again tomorrow, but it will be warmer and more humid as the southerly flow increases dew points into the mid-60s area-wide.
Ridging surface and aloft will produce dry conditions. Chattanooga Airport, TN 66 89 70 86 / 0 10 10 50 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 64 88 68 86 / 0 10 0 20 Oak Ridge, TN 64 89 68 87 / 0 10 0 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 60 88 62 87 / 0 10 0 0.
A cold front will continue to make its way east overnight, but then should splay out west to east over Nebraska. Convective debris cloudiness and east/northeasterly winds may keep temps a little cooler on Sunday, but still above normal.
1033 PM EDT Sat Jun 10 2017 We will continue warming through the end of the weekend as deep layer ridging lingers. This pattern will hold through the start of the new work week with upper ridging weakening each day.
Updated the forecast to include coastal showers through the night with the low level trough axis meandering over the local area and upper level divergence and high moisture content continuing to stream overhead. Muggy overnight conditions under mostly cloudy skies are expected with low temps falling into the low/mid 70s.
1252 AM EDT Sun Jun 11 2017 Building high pressure will bring dry weather and warm weather for the start of the new week.
1147 PM CDT Sat Jun 10 2017 No major changes to the forecast this afternoon, as the area remains situated in an area of ridging aloft and gusty southerly flow at the surface.
1056 PM CDT Sat Jun 10 2017 Latest surface chart indicates high pressure over the Appalachians and a frontal boundary draped over the northern Plains states.
1015 PM EDT Sat Jun 10 2017 Sub-tropical high pressure will expand across the southeastern U. With high pressure building aloft, the Bermuda high at the surface will build/extend westward across our region overnight into Sunday morning. The subsidence associated with the high aloft will lead to clear-mostly clear skies overnight. Sub-tropical ridging with 700 mb heights around 322 dm will crest over the Carolinas this period, and with continued surface ridging extending wwd from near Bermuda. Model forecast soundings depict a stronger-than-previous-days cap owing to the influence of the increasingly-dominant sub-tropical ridge, so the chance of any deep convection should be nil. Warmer, to hot, with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s, except probably middle 90s at FAY. Upper ridging along the East Coast will dominate through midweek, with lots of sun and subsidence to suppress convection.
Cool low pressure aloft will continue to move inland into northern California tonight. A few showers will linger into Sunday, especially in the higher terrain, but the overall trend will be for drier weather.
The timing of the low clouds from the 00Z TAF package still looks reasonable with stratus reaching Waco around 10Z and the Metroplex TAF sites an hour or two later. An upper level low over southeast Texas will slowly sink southward during the next few days.
717 PM EDT Sat Jun 10 2017 Building high pressure will bring dry weather and warm weather for the start of the new week.
19Z water vapor imagery shows a closed upper low moving onshore along the OR coast. At the surface, a low pressure system has lifted through northern MN leaving a weak frontal boundary over eastern SD and central NEB. A lee trough was also noted across the CO high plains extending south through west TX and eastern NM. A moist low level airmass was noted from the TX gulf coast through MN ahead of the lee trough and frontal boundary. This is expected to keep the boundary layer mixed overnight with lows forecast to hold in the lower 70s.
Persistent southwesterly low-level flow has warmed and moistened the air mass to some degree, so expect overnight lows to be a few degrees warmer than early this morning. General subsidence as the high pressure slides eastward has kept the weather dry over the Midwest.
It will be little warmer tonight as we are in a weak southerly flow, with little more moisture. Dry (no rain) again tomorrow, but it will be warmer and more humid as the southerly flow increases dew points into the mid-60s area-wide. High pressure and light winds and VFR conditions can be expected through the forecast period.
841 PM EDT Sat Jun 10 2017 Very warm weather is ahead with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s into midweek as an upper level ridge builds into the eastern United States.
In the lower levels, skies were partly cloudy moving to the west to northwest. Which explains the movement of the showers and thunderstorms coming off of Cuba and expected to affect the outer Straits overnight and sporadically the Lower Keys.
The showers will move in mostly along and south of the highway 200 corridor, with the high res models developing stronger cells further south over SD later in the early morning hours. Associated band of shra/tsra will develop later this evening central/northern high plains north of the low and e-w oriented surface warm front also lifting ne. It does appear that best potential for strong storms will be to our south closer to warm frontal boundary and favorable convective parameters. The southern branch outlines an upper level ridge over the northern plains, with upper level troffing over the intermountain west.
719 PM EDT Sat Jun 10 2017 Remnants of a few high clouds stemming from a disturbance near Hudson Bay will push off to the southeast this evening as high pressure holds strong across eastern Kentucky once again tonight. Patchy fog will be confined to river valleys as overnight low temperatures in the low-mid 60s on ridges keep crossover temperatures from being reached. Afternoon surface analysis shows a area of high pressure remains parked nearby and this is providing fair weather across the Bluegrass State. Given the warmer temperatures today lows will be warmer than last night, with lows dropping into the upper 50s in the deeper valleys and low to mid 60s on the ridges. High pressure will continue to control the short term period. However, given the rising heights and 850mb temperatures the high temperature will continue to increase Sunday.
Flat upper ridge building through central and eastern GLAKS tonight with mainly thin cirrus traversing the region overnight. Some patches of fog are expected around daybreak mainly over the lower Susquehanna Valley where winds/dewpoints should be lightest/highest. Dewpoints creeping into the low 60s will result in max heat index values in the low 90s over much of the Susquehanna Valley.
5" well offshore and will struggle to reach the coast as upper low translates southeastward. Min temps will trend a bit warmer with SE winds and a bit more cloud cover to help insulate.
638 PM CDT Sat Jun 10 2017 Latest surface chart indicates high pressure over the Appalachians and a frontal boundary draped over the northern Plains states.
1001 PM EDT Sat Jun 10 2017 High pressure will continue to build into the area through Sunday, maintaining fair weather, with temperatures slightly above normal. Plentiful convection over the Eastern Gulf of Mexico and Florida is injecting moisture into the upper troposphere, and the flow on the southeast side of the upper low over Louisiana is spreading that moisture into Georgia and South Carolina. Upper level ridging will remain over the region through the period.
116 PM PST Sat Feb 3 2018 A ridge of high pressure aloft will control the weather across Southern California through the coming week.