Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Cold front was approaching the northern portion of EWX's CWA as of writing. Min temps tonight should be roughly 15 to 20 degrees cooler than this morning's values with highs Monday only in the 80s.
Near normal temperatures expected today across the area as upper level high pressure begins to build over southern and central California. Daytime high temperatures will be around 5 to 7 degrees warmer compared to yesterday afternoon.
SHORT TERM (Now through Monday): The most recent surface analysis indicates a cold front from roughly Bonham to San Angelo to El Paso. After the passage of the cold front, a massive influx of dry air and a mid-level flow out of the northwest will produce dry weather tonight and Monday.
Then drying out into the coming week with cooler temperatures. The upper low pressure trough was near the OK and AR state line and will gradually move east also. Cooler temperatures will be seen with highs from the 60s north to the 70s central and south. Models continue to develop the upper low pressure system over the southern part of the region, and will have to keep some chances of rain in the forecast, especially in the east, into Sunday night and Monday. This low pressure gradually moves to the east Monday ending the chances of rain. Temperatures will remain cooler than normal for Monday.
405 AM EDT Sun Oct 22 2017 Dry and mild today as high pressure pulls away from the region.
233 AM MST Sun Oct 22 2017 The brief cool down will end today as a strong area of high pressure begins to build over the Western U. Clear skies under dry northwesterly flow will persist through early this week as a strong ridge of high pressure builds across the Western U.
An upper level trough moves across the Upper Mississippi Valley today, as the main jet max east of the trough axis lifts north into Canada. Another trough begins to form across the northern plains late tonight, as the lead 250 mb trough axis never really moves across the forecast area. 700 mb upward motion lifts north early this morning, then increases again later this morning and afternoon southeast as a weak low/mid level wave rides up the slow moving cold front. High temperatures will be warm again east ahead of the cold front. Mid/low level drying then takes over briefly tonight behind the cold front.
409 AM MDT Sun Oct 22 2017 Short wave ridging in the northwest flow aloft will usher in warmer and continued dry air. High clouds and a warmer airmass will help keep temperatures warmer tonight. May see a few snow showers early in the nrn mtns with weak QG forcing generated by the passing trough, but no precip on the plains with the passing front.
604 AM EDT Sun Oct 22 2017 A large area of high pressure centered off the New Jersey coast will bring spectacular Autumn conditions today through much of Monday, to enjoy the near peak color of the fall foliage. A high-amplitude and deepening, cold upper trough will become located across the eastern U.
Along with increased cloud cover, overnight lows will be several degrees warmer than the past few nights, generally in the 50s and 60s. /Issued 318 PM EDT Sat Oct 21 2017/ High pressure over the Middle Atlantic will continue to shift offshore the eastern US through Sunday. Precipitation chances will begin to increase, especially from the west, Sunday night as a cold front approaches from the Lower Mississippi River Valley.
130 AM EDT Sun Oct 22 2017 The dry and warm weather will continue into Monday, under a large area of high pressure.
As an upper level trough moves across the Central/Southern Plains, a cold front surges across South Central Texas this morning. The highest threat for storms will be northeast of a Fredericksburg to La Grange line closest to the best dynamics.
It will be breezy to windy in the mountains, especially at the higher elevations.
/issued 258 AM CDT Sun Oct 22 2017/ An upper trough is over the central part of the country. Temperatures today will be quite a bit cooler behind the front with highs mostly in the 70s and a little below normal for this time of year. Then another cold front will push into the CWA Monday night as the upper trough over the Upper Midwest deepens.
357 AM EDT Sun Oct 22 2017 The dry and warm weather will continue into Monday, under a large area of high pressure.
1122 PM MDT Sat Oct 21 2017 Upper trough across eastern CO is currently pushing into the central plains with dry air spreading in behind. Given clearing skies and cold airmass over the area, should see a clear cold night across southern Colorado with temperatures dropping into the teens across the high mountains and valleys and 20s to lower 30s elsewhere. Surface lee trough deepens along the I-25 corridor and adjacent plains which should help mix down some breezy west to northwest winds into the valleys and lower elevations of the southeast mountains by afternoon. Elsewhere winds will remain light with a good warm up as temperatures across the lower elevations return into the lower 70s.
310 AM CDT Sun Oct 22 2017 Starting this morning with 500mb ridges over the southwestern U. , and across the eastern third of the nation, with a trough over the central U. The trough axis overhead early this morning will exit across MN this afternoon, with the southern end of the trough lingering over the southeastern states, as a secondary trough slides across the Dakotas from the northwest tonight. Northwest flow will then be the rule aloft, as a high amplitude ridge builds over the western states up through British Columbia.
258 AM CDT Sun Oct 22 2017 An upper trough is over the central part of the country. Temperatures today will be quite a bit cooler behind the front with highs mostly in the 70s and a little below normal for this time of year. Then another cold front will push into the CWA Monday night as the upper trough over the Upper Midwest deepens.
Sfc front prog to push S across the region Sun mrng with weak Nrly sfc winds (with pre frontal trough) becmg gusty by midday.
319 AM EDT Sun Oct 22 2017 High pressure will move east of the region today into Monday.
233 AM EDT Sun Oct 22 2017 High pressure will extend across the Carolinas through Sunday.
303 AM EDT Sun Oct 22 2017 High pressure centered over the Mid-Atlantic region continued to provide dry weather across the lower Ohio Valley early this morning as the latest satellite imagery shows a stream of cirrus moving overhead. A cold front, currently along a line from near Minneapolis to Oklahoma City will slowly advance eastward toward our area today. Will maintain the highest precipitation chances from mid/late evening through Monday morning across the entire area where 1 to 2 inches is likely. In its wake, a strong cold front will sweep through Monday evening and Monday night, bringing a surge of cold air and breezy northwest winds.
WV imagery indicates an upper level trough of low pressure transitioning eastward across the Central Plains. Near the surface, high pressure extends from the Colorado Rockies eastward into the Western High Plains. As for this afternoon, the main severe weather threat should be to the east of our area, as the cold front should be just east of the Barber/Pratt county area by the time of convective initiation. Models are running much warmer than the group of various MOS output, especially the EKDMOS and ECMWF mos products which would reach even hard freeze type lows in the far western counties.
A bit of a temperature roller coaster is forecast through the next seven days, as a series of cold fronts move through the Land of Enchantment. The first cold front is moving through today and will result in a short-lived cool down, with daytime temperatures rebounding back above normal by Monday. The second cold front of the next seven days will push through Monday night and result in another short-lived cool down that will be most noticable across eastern New Mexico.
Current water vapor imagery and RAP upper air analysis indicate an upper level ridge stretching N-S along the eastern seaboard with a trough across the Central and Southern Plains.
414 AM EDT Sun Oct 22 2017 High pressure will maintain dry and warm weather today. Rain can be expected with a Monday cold front and eventually a change in our weather pattern. This slow down is in response to the development of a cutoff 500mb low over the lower Mississippi valley Sunday night. This upper low is slowing height falls over the region, and is holding back the eastward progression of large scale ascent. Additionally, the deep moisture stream will be slowed, as it squeezes northward between the upper low and the exiting ridge. Have slowed the higher PoPs a few hours on Monday and am thinking that the main rain shield will not make it across the entire area until late in the afternoon or evening.
This band is associated with a cold front that is progressing quickly southeast early this morning. Will continue to monitor this activity the next few hours, as a flash flood watch may be needed, especially with additional convection is expected later today with the passage of the cold front. This activity will be associated with a pre-frontal trough, with the actual front lagging by about 3 to 4 hours. By this evening, drier northwesterly flow will develop aloft as an upper trough moves over the lower MS valley, bringing an end to the rain with skies expected to clear from west to east overnight. Cooler air will spread into the area, with lows falling into the 50s tonight, and highs in the 70s Monday aftn.
253 AM MDT Sun Oct 22 2017 Weak ridging has set up across the High Plains this morning with the next bit of active weather moving into the Pacific NW. Warmer air will be very short-lived across the CWA as the next cold front pushes through tongiht. Strong upper ridging will develop across the western CONUS Tue/Wed.
651 AM EDT Sun Oct 22 2017 Dry and warm weather will continue today as high pressure moves off to the east.
624 AM EDT Sun Oct 22 2017 Dry and mild today as high pressure pulls away from the region.
108 AM EDT Sun Oct 22 2017 High pressure will maintain dry and warm weather today. Rain can be expected with a Monday cold front and eventually a change in our weather pattern. This slow down is in response to the development of a cutoff 500mb low over the lower Mississippi valley Sunday night. This upper low is slowing height falls over the region, and is holding back the eastward progression of large scale ascent. Additionally, the deep moisture stream will be slowed, as it squeezes between the upper low and the exiting ridge. Have slowed the higher PoPs a few hours on Monday and am thinking that the main rain shield will not make it across the entire area until late in the afternoon or evening.
/issued 405 PM EDT Sat Oct 21 2017/ Latest WPC surface analysis shows a strong 1029 mb cell of high pressure over the mid Atlantic region, with a weak stationary boundary draped across the Bahamas. 7", with a majority of the moisture located in the lower and upper levels of the atmosphere. Mid range models prog a low pressure trough to deepen over the Ohio valley, dragging a sharp cold front southward over the Gulf.
Question will be how much of the forecast area experiences freezing/sub freezing temperatures. For Sunday am expecting afternoon temperatures to peak in the low 70s under a generally sunny sky.
314 AM EDT Sun Oct 22 2017 High pressure will push eastward into the northwest Atlantic through Monday.
446 AM CDT Sun Oct 22 2017 Our well-advertised cold front with accompanying squall line of thunderstorms continues to make its way through the heart of the region early this morning with occasional wind gusts of 40 mph or higher. Cooler and drier air will spill southward in wake of the front as clearing skies will allow for temperatures to drop off quickly over much of the region by Monday morning with most areas reaching the mid to upper 40s and lower 50s.
1152 AM EDT Sun Jun 11 2017 A large ridge of high pressure will continue to build across the Great Lakes and Ohio valley through this week.
/Issued 336 AM CDT Sun Jun 11 2017/ Still under the influence of an upper level ridge across the SE CONUS in-conjunction with our region being displaced equatorward from the northern stream 300 hPa jet, another very warm day is in store for the Panhandles as we close out the weekend. High temperatures today will range from the low and mid 90s in the SE TX Panhandle to upper 90s and lower 100s in the western and northern Panhandles. The main upper low pressure system centered over the northern California coast on Monday will move northeast toward the northern High Plains by mid to late this week.
935 AM CDT Sun Jun 11 2017 Mid-level synoptic ridging will continues today with a mid-level cap and dry air prevailing aloft.
Today Through Monday Night The larger scale flow over the CONUS will be characterized by a closed upper low over the Pacific Coast over CA and OR. with a ridge over the ERN CONUS. with dewpts increasing from the low to mid 60s this Sun afternoon.
Expect strong afternoon winds through Monday as a cold front approaches northern Arizona.
Overall forcing today will be limited to some convergence along a dryline positioned near the central/east central Panhandles as a lee trough strengthens. /Issued 336 AM CDT Sun Jun 11 2017/ Still under the influence of an upper level ridge across the SE CONUS in-conjunction with our region being displaced equatorward from the northern stream 300 hPa jet, another very warm day is in store for the Panhandles as we close out the weekend. High temperatures today will range from the low and mid 90s in the SE TX Panhandle to upper 90s and lower 100s in the western and northern Panhandles. The main upper low pressure system centered over the northern California coast on Monday will move northeast toward the northern High Plains by mid to late this week.
/issued 357 AM CDT Sun Jun 11 2017/ Upper ridge over the area will continue hot weather for the region.
/issued 210 AM CDT Sun Jun 11 2017/ Upper-level trough across east Texas to support an unstable atmosphere across the region today into Monday.
Highs today will range from the mid 70s northwest to the lower 80s southeast. Dry air with surface dewpoints in the lower 30s across much of the west this afternoon will bring minimum relative humidities as low as 20 percent. But shortly after midnight the effects of the ejecting h500 upper low will bring scattered showers and thunderstorms to southwest North Dakota.
1125 AM EDT Sun Jun 11 2017 Update A large area of high pressure over the mid Atlantic will continue to produce south to southwest winds here in lower Michigan over the next couple of days. To start only a small chance for a shower or perhaps a thunderstorm for the northern zones today as warm air advection remains strong and that region is closer to the higher pwat values.
High pressure in the western Atlantic ridging westward will become the dominant weather feature over the area for the next several days. High pressure will create relatively benign conditions across the waters for the next several days.
637 AM CDT Sun Jun 11 2017 Stationary summer pattern remains entrenched across the bi-state region with mid/upper level ridging aloft and south/southwest low- level flow. You will probably begin to notice the increase in humidity as dewpoints this afternoon rise into the low to mid 60s due to the prolonged southerly surface flow.
714 AM EDT Sun Jun 11 2017 Mostly clear skies today with skies becoming partly cloudy tonight as high pressure continues dominant.
This will yield high temperatures a couple of degrees warmer than yesterday. Upper ridge anchored over the southeast CONUS will continue to dominate the weather for the next few days.
An nearly stationary upper low over eastern Texas will help pull Gulf moisture northward today. We start off what could be a wet work-week under southerly flow as ridging is off to our east and an upper level cut-off low is over the Texas Coast to our West. 00", and with the enhanced southerly flow from upper low off to our west, I've opted to edge closer to the GFS and EC and go a little higher on PoPs across the area - but it should be noted that my confidence is low at this point on the 50-60% coverage Monday afternoon.
A ridge of high pressure at the surface will keep things quiet on Monday before the next system approaches from the west late Monday night.
and the highest gusts of up 35 mph across northeast Oklahoma near the Kansas border today look good. when at that time a cold front will approach the region with increased chances for showers and thunderstorms.
1041 AM CDT Sun Jun 11 2017 A well defined upper level low spinning over SE TX will serve as a focus for aftn shra/tsra. Isolated to scattered showers and storms are expected today to the east of an upper low drifting south through Southeast Texas.
1012 AM EDT Sun Jun 11 2017 High pressure will continue to build into the area today maintaining fair weather, with temperatures slightly above normal. Due to increased insulation from the high clouds any fog would likely be patchy. Strong upper level ridge will remain over the region through the period. High temperatures will likely be a few degrees above normal during the period with ridging in place. The main upper level ridge will begin to weaken and gradually push further off to the east through the period, allowing Atlantic and Gulf moisture to push into the region.
As advertised, the H5 trough continues to slowly crawl southward across East Texas, and is currently centered over Houston. Conditions will remain stable tonight as the H5 trough begins to fill and drift east. Tomorrow the H5 trough will be much weaker, but the dry air will remain in the vicinity, keeping the forecast dry and hot through the day.
1235 PM EDT Sun Jun 11 2017 High pressure will build across the area today through Monday bringing dry warm weather with high temperatures both days well into the 80s.
Any isolated showers that develop may persist through the mid morning hours on Monday before dissipating as diurnal mixing commences and the low level thermal profile increases.
704 AM EDT Sun Jun 11 2017 A large ridge of high pressure will continue to build across the Great Lakes and Ohio valley through this week.
An upper level ridge of high pressure centered across the middle of the Atlantic continues to hold sway across the Ohio and Tennessee valleys. Lows will range from around 60 in the valleys, to the mid and upper 60s on the ridges. Highs on Monday will be similar to perhaps just a bit cooler compared to highs today. An upper level ridge will be in place across much of the SE U.
The upper level low is centered over Northwestern California this morning. This afternoon the upper level low will slowly start to move off to the east of the area. There are a couple vort maxes rotating around the low and the timing and location of those may help or hinder the extent of the thunderstorms depending on the timing. Tonight skies are expected to start clearing as the upper level low pulls out of the area and high pressure builds in. The highest potential is in eastern Mendocino county, but southern Trinity could see some as well.
/issued 405 AM CDT Sun Jun 11 2017/ Early morning sfc analysis shows high pressure in place over the sern CONUS continuing to provide a light srly low-level flow off the Gulf over the forecast area this morning which is evident in regional 00z soundings as both PWAT/mean RH values continue to creep upward. Water vapor imagery shows a mid/upper-level low spinning over sern TX while some ridging is noted extending from nrn Mexico/wrn TX and up through the srn Plains. The low aloft over sern TX is progged to meander over the wrn Gulf region through the early part of the new week. This low is progged to weaken while drifting ewd across the nrn Gulf into mid-week, while soundings indicate moisture decreasing somewhat.
A weak U/L trough over the western Gulf of Mexico will gradually fill today and Monday. which will induce strong downstream ridging over the southeast U. At the surface, a large area of high pressure over the central Atlantic will extend across the Florida peninsula and Gulf of Mexico. with the ridge axis remaining north of the region.
Unseasonably cool temperatures and breezy west to northwest winds will persist through Monday as an upper level low impacts the region. An unseasonably deep and cold mid/upper level low over the Oregon/California board continues to drop southward toward the region early this morning. As the low moves through northern California today, the atmosphere will become unstable and tap into increased moisture to produce a chance of showers and potential thunderstorms. The best chances for convection appear to be over the North Bay and East Bay regions this afternoon as the core of the low approaches and begins to shift further inland. The main upper level low is then forecast to shift inland to our east by Monday.
High pressure ridge remains north of the region and E/SE flow at 10-15 knots and seas 2-4 ft will remain in place this weekend then slowly become SE Mon/Tue and S by Wed/Thu.
With limited instability/weak subsidence in the wake of mid-level wave, think afternoon thunderstorm chances will be on the low side.
A weak upper level disturbance currently over southeast Texas will gradually weaken and move to the east-southeast through Monday as the subtropical ridge axis builds across north central Mexico and southwest Texas.
Cooler air behind a cold front could move into the northwest parts of northeast Nebraska yet this afternoon with winds shifting to north. However, latest parameterized model guidance is suggestive that a weak mid-level impulse over the lower CO Valley early this morning will track northeast into the central High Plains by evening. Mid-level ridging will begin to shift east of the area on Monday in deference to the progression of an upper low through the Interior West. In the low levels, a lee cyclone will correspondingly deepen over eastern CO while an associated surface front lifts north through northern NE.
Thus, we have adjusted the grids to account for a slightly cooler forecast out in the Rio Grande Plains where temperatures will most likely not exceed the mid 90s while maintaining lower 90s elsewhere. A strong boundary layer cap should prevent convection from developing this afternoon as a weak mid-to- upper level closed low centered just a few counties to our east maintains weak northerly flow aloft. A weak upper level disturbance currently over southeast Texas will gradually weaken and move to the east-southeast through Monday as the subtropical ridge axis builds across north central Mexico and southwest Texas.
With high pressure dominating the region, a persistence forecast looks good.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 89 69 85 69 / 10 10 40 20 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 87 67 86 68 / 10 0 30 20 Oak Ridge, TN 88 67 87 68 / 10 0 30 20 Tri Cities Airport, TN 85 60 85 64 / 10 0 10 10.
1255 PM EDT Sun Jun 11 2017 A large ridge of high pressure will continue to build across the Great Lakes and Ohio valley through this week.
High pressure will provide dry and warm conditions into Monday.
This moisture is progged to continue to advect north, bringing some potential for some showers moving into the Highway 84 corridor around 8-10AM, with better chances of more showers and storms towards I-20 around late morning to noon and Highway 82 in the mid-afternoon (around 2-4PM). In addition, expect a hot and humid afternoon, especially in northern areas (where clouds and convection will take longer to move in), as 70+ dewpoints and highs in upper 80s-near 90 degrees, will promote heat indices in the low-mid 90s. Some convection and clouds in the Highway 84 corridor should limit highs into the mid 80s today. Expect convection to wind down after 00Z Monday and become more confined towards the Highway 84 corridor after midnight. Widespread clouds and 70+ dewpoints will keep lows above normal tonight in the low 70s.
706 AM EDT Sun Jun 11 2017 Aviation A large area of high pressure over the mid Atlantic will continue to produce south to southwest winds here in lower Michigan over the next couple of days. To start only a small chance for a shower or perhaps a thunderstorm for the northern zones today as warm air advection remains strong and that region is closer to the higher pwat values.