Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
WV imagery shows a broad, upper trough stretching from coast to coast, and moving through Texas. Area radars show a swath of wintry precipitation that arrived with this trough exiting the CWA over the southeast zones, where temperatures at KJCT suggest p-type is rain. With the incoming cold front, this would favor the colder HRRR/GFS, which have performed much better than the NBM.
959 PM PST Tue Feb 16 2021 High pressure will make a brief visit to the Inland Northwest on Wednesday bringing a good chance of clearing skies by the afternoon.
Raised low temps several deg, which results in min wind chills for southern and southeastern area remaining around -15F or warmer. In fact, would not be surprised if most of the area remains around -15F or warmer. A very weak disturbance/upper trough in northwesterly flow will pass across the local area this evening.
231 AM CST Wed Feb 17 2021 As of 830Z Wednesday morning, large scale midlevel troughing remains across the central US with a vort max ejecting from northern OK into southeast KS. Overall QPF amounts remain quite light with generally a couple hundredths to near a tenth of an inch, with the highest values southeast of I-35. All-in-all expect snow totals to range from a dusting to 2 inches -- again, the lower amounts near the Turnpike and the higher amounts along/southeast of I-35.
As upper trough begins to amplify, stronger forcing develops over aforementioned area, as 150+ knot upper level jet streak lifts northeast.
1054 PM EST Tue Feb 16 2021 A cold front passed southeast across the Keys late this afternoon and early this evening. In contrast, the Lower Keys may eek out dry weather for the remainder of tonight. A cold front passed the Keys late this afternoon and has now stalled to our southeast over the Straits. The Pulley Ridge buoy (88 NW Fort Jefferson) is seas of 7 feet at 10 seconds, with the mean wave direction from the west. A cold front has stalled just southeast of the Keys and will lift back northwestward into the Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday morning. High pressure will build across the western North Atlantic Wednesday and Wednesday night, allowing southeast breezes to once again freshen.
/Tonight/ Our 2nd winter storm in the last 3 days is already underway this evening, with the mosaic radar imagery indicating a broad area of SN ahead of the amplifying upper trough now entering WCntrl TX, per the evening water vapor imagery. The progs remain consistent with the area of -SN quickly spreading E while gradually saturating the air mass generally along and N of the I-20 corridor, with increasing overrunning resulting in a warmer air aloft gradually spreading NNE from SE TX/SW LA. In fact, the 00Z KLCH raob depicts a deep warm nose above the sfc lyr, which will result in any initial -SN development to gradually transition to a IP/FZRA mix late over Lower E TX/Wcntrl LA as this warmer air advects N.
Most of the precipitation will start off as snow later today and this evening, but look for sleet and freezing rain to start mixing in later on tonight and especially tomorrow as a warm layer develops aloft.
1018 PM MST Tue Feb 16 2021 Upper level analysis shows a broad trough covering the CONUS. Surface map shows high pressure to the east and low pressure to the southwest.
1142 PM EST Tue Feb 16 2021 Strong high pressure will be centered over Se Mi Wed morning and afternoon, maintaining light and variable winds. Any remaining snow flurry activity will end this afternoon as high pressure builds into the region and brings much drier air over the region. This bubble of arctic high pressure will lead to bitterly cold temperatures overnight as skies should be partly to mostly clear with light/calm winds by mid evening. This high will remain in place into Wednesday with highs limited to the teens to around 20 once again with lows then holding in the single digits on Wednesday night as cloud cover increases in advance of the next storm system.
Freezing rain is expected at the southern terminals during the early morning hours, between 06-09Z, starting as sleet/snow at the KBBD site. A cold front will move south, switching the winds to the north at the all the terminals by 20Z Wednesday.
A lull under brief ridging is expected late week. Given the convective nature of this precip heavy snowfall has remained intermittent across the valleys, but more consistent across favored areas of the higher terrain.
A northwest flow will continue over the area through Wednesday as a ridge of high pressure builds offshore. The building ridge will begin to push the moisture to the east Wednesday allowing showers to taper off through the day.
1235 AM MST Wed Feb 17 2021 Overview: Deep troughing /cyclonic flow aloft/ will persist over the central CONUS through mid-week. At this time, expect highs ranging from the teens (north/east of Goodland) to the lower-mid 20s (eastern CO) -- though this could be on the warm-end -- with overnight lows ranging from -5F to 10F.
1056 PM CST Tue Feb 16 2021 We're slowly breaking free of the record cold airmass that had overtaken most of the Lower 48. Soundings also suggest weakened stability above the 700 mb layer, so cannot completely rule out a bit more intensification than some of the higher resolution models suggest. The 500 mb trough axis will take it's time moving eastward, and could keep at very light snow or flurries across areas east of I-29 through mid-afternoon.
First off, the lower cloud deck and snow flurries/light snow has decreased in areal coverage south of the TN river, but remains persistent in southern middle TN. The freezing line will be a close call again, but the models indicate that precipitation will begin as a mix of snow, sleet and possibly freezing rain (although the warm nose doesn't appear as warm with this system). Once again, a sharp cutoff may occur along the freezing line.
902 PM CST Tue Feb 16 2021 First off, the lower cloud deck and snow flurries/light snow has decreased in areal coverage south of the TN river, but remains persistent in southern middle TN. The freezing line will be a close call again, but the models indicate that precipitation will begin as a mix of snow, sleet and possibly freezing rain (although the warm nose doesn't appear as warm with this system). Once again, a sharp cutoff may occur along the freezing line.
107 AM EST Wed Feb 17 2021 High pressure and dry weather will remain over the region into Wednesday evening before yet another storm system moves into the region.
The forecast remains on track for tonight as high pressure at the surface settles south from the OH Valley. This could mix with snow, sleet, and freezing rain at times at TRI. Garuckas Chattanooga Airport, TN 21 45 35 45 27 / 0 20 90 80 40 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 21 41 34 42 28 / 0 20 90 80 60 Oak Ridge, TN 19 41 33 42 26 / 0 20 90 80 60 Tri Cities Airport, TN 18 44 33 43 29 / 0 10 90 80 70 TN.
1137 PM CST Tue Feb 16 2021 Summary: Getting warmer, but still cold enough for wind chill advisories before a little snow arrives.
901 PM CST Tue Feb 16 2021 First off, the lower cloud deck and snow flurries/light snow has decreased in areal coverage south of the TN river, but remains persistent in southern middle TN. The freezing line will be a close call again, but the models indicate that precipitation will begin as a mix of snow, sleet and possibly freezing rain (although the warm nose doesn't appear as warm with this system). Once again, a sharp cutoff may occur along the freezing line.
427 AM MST Wed Feb 17 2021 Large-scale trough continues across the central US, with western WY remaining on the western periphery in NW flow aloft. The larger trough will move finally depart east Thursday morning, with brief ridging putting an end to the snowfall across western and central WY.
(Today and tonight) Remnant light snow continues across the area this morning in association with a mid-level trough axis/vort max. Otherwise, temperatures should continue a relative warming trend with highs well into the teens and low to mid 20s deg F (it helps when you are 15 to 25 deg F warmer than yesterday morning!).
While most areas now below zero morning sunshine will aide in rebound into the upper teens by afternoon even though mid-high clouds will be increasing ahead of srn plains low pressure. Lower MS valley convection looks to curtail a more appreciable snow Thu as upper trough lifts through the wrn OH valley. Overnight, Lake Michigan aggregate trough has also been pushing eastward across northeast Indiana and very weak near sfc convergence with this trough may also be aiding in patchy fog formation when coupled with the radiational cooling. Will take a pessimistic approach in timing the improving conditions today given the strength of the low level inversion that has developed, with higher confidence in VFR delayed until after 17Z.
The wind shift associated with the actual warm front should occur later today as N/NE winds quickly veer ESE/SE behind the front. Temperatures warm into the low 80s across the southern half of the forecast area, with mid 70s along I-4 Corridor. The highest coverage of showers/storms will be from VRB to SUA. A warm front will lift north across the local waters, causing N/NE winds to quickly become SE at 10-15 knots.
Weak high pressure will settle in over the region through the remainder of the short term period, with dry conditions expected this afternoon through the day Thursday.
631 AM EST Wed Feb 17 2021 High pressure will build today and cross the region tonight and Thursday.
422 AM CST Wed Feb 17 2021 The Arctic high pressure has drifted east and is now centered over IL/IN this morning, though the ridge axis extends toward MN/WI.
and with the 'warmer trend' will be able to let go of the current Wind Chill Advisory headline.
Upper level analysis places trough dipping through the plains. Temperatures will be a bit warmer over western locations, while further east similar temperatures to yesterday expected.
A mean mid/upper trough will continue to move slowly eastward across the central CONUS on Thursday although H85 temperatures are progged to rise.
422 AM EST Wed Feb 17 2021 High pressure rooted in the mid-Mississippi Valley early this morning tracks east today with the center of the anticyclone passing over the southern Great Lakes. Lows tonight not as cold /single digits above 0/ as today's thermal trough moves out and clouds provide some insulation.
Periods of light snow continue today as cold front moves through the region. Temperatures trend warmer into the weekend. Surface pressure is rising this morning over Southern Alberta and northern portions of North-central Montana, indicating the position of an advancing cold front. While we have enjoyed a recovery from last week's bitter cold, the continuing gradual warming trend will be interrupted for a day due to the passing cold front. Warm advection develops on Thursday as a dry and prominent ridge builds over the Pacific NW and moves over the Rockies.
However, tonight there will be a chance for freezing fog across the Panhandles, so the terminals may have visibilities restrictions starting tonight in addition to the low ceilings. The biggest questions now reside with temperatures over snow packed areas, and the freezing fog potential the next couple nights. We went ahead and adjusted temperatures a bit over snow packed areas to account for slightly cooler spots. Given these conditions, it seems freezing fog will certainly be possible over the western two-thirds of the area.
SFC Obs indicate temperatures at or below freezing across nearly the entire forecast area, so this is the start of the anticipated round of wintry weather. Guidance has handled these initial temperatures relatively poorly, so its hard to have a lot of confidence in forecast highs for today, but of the guidance that does a reasonable job with current temps, a substantial number of them show a modest if any increase through the day, and generally hold readings at or below freezing in the winter storm warned area. Landry Parishes within a Winter Weather Advisory for accumulations on the lower end of this spectrum, and the Winter Storm Warning was left as is. This low will move eastward across the coastal waters this afternoon, with a strong offshore flow in its wake.
High temperatures will be a few degrees warmer than yesterday, ranging from 15 degrees around Galesburg to 22 degrees in Lawrenceville.
417 AM EST Wed Feb 17 2021 High pressure will build today and cross the region tonight and Thursday.
418 AM EST Wed Feb 17 2021 Under mostly cloudy skies and variable winds varying from northeast near 10 mph along the Lower Keys to east to southeast elsewhere, temperatures are in the lower to mid 70s along the entire Island Chain. On our marine district, winds are east to southeast near 10 knots except northeast from the Lower Keys westward to beyond Dry Tortugas.
310 AM MST Wed Feb 17 2021 Large-scale trough continues across the central US, with western WY remaining on the western periphery in NW flow aloft. The larger trough will move finally depart east Thursday morning, with brief ridging putting an end to the snowfall across western and central WY.
317 AM PST Wed Feb 17 2021 High pressure will make a brief visit to the Inland Northwest later today and Wednesday night bringing a good chance of clearing skies.
As of 830Z Wednesday morning, large scale midlevel troughing remains across the central US with a vort max ejecting from northern OK into southeast KS. Overall QPF amounts remain quite light with generally a couple hundredths to near a tenth of an inch, with the highest values southeast of I-35. All-in-all expect snow totals to range from a dusting to 2 inches -- again, the lower amounts near the Turnpike and the higher amounts along/southeast of I-35.
412 AM PST Wed Feb 17 2021 High pressure will make a brief visit to the Inland Northwest later today and Wednesday night bringing a good chance of clearing skies.
At the upper levels, a weak trough in the northwest flow aloft will be over Colorado. The cold air aloft associated with this trough is contributing the steep lapse rates and unstable airmass. On Thursday, the upper level trough will exit Colorado with weak qg descent/subsidence in the mid and upper levels. High temperatures over the urban corridor/northeast plains will be slightly warmer than today, generally near freezing.
With increasing dew points, the boundary layer may be able to support the forecast lower ceilings and potential fog the HRRR and RAP/NMM/ARW visibility fields are suggesting primarily out west of the highway 23 corridor primarily. At least 1 more night will be in the low single digits or around 0 in places for lows.
Issued by National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 521 AM CST Wed Feb 17 2021 (12Z TAFS) A cold front south of a San Angelo to Brady line at 1030Z will bring LIFR to IFR CIGS, with light FZFG this AM as it moves south.
/issued 423 AM CST Wed Feb 17 2021/ Multi-lobed trough across the Central CONUS continues to support the cold air gift that keeps on giving. Still seeing some fog across the far southwest, but if the wind shift continues as it has the past few hours, we should be able to release the freezing fog advisory here with the morning package. Another lobe of energy in the broad mid-level trough across the CONUS will continue its approach today.
All in all, expecting a couple inches at best in the high terrain of western Colorado today with trace to a few tenths in some valley locales. Temperatures do remain cooler than normal today with H7 temps in the -10C to -14C range. Thursday looks to be a dry day for a change but temperatures are expected to be cooler than today as H7 temps drop a bit lower in the -12C to -16C range. A 130 kt jet will lift northeast through the region during the day on Thursday, allowing this dry air mass to work in, resulting in some breezy conditions mostly in the high terrain. Yet another trough will elongate and as it drops in from the Gulf of Alaska and pushes inland Thursday night.
423 AM CST Wed Feb 17 2021 Multi-lobed trough across the Central CONUS continues to support the cold air gift that keeps on giving. Still seeing some fog across the far southwest, but if the wind shift continues as it has the past few hours, we should be able to release the freezing fog advisory here with the morning package. Another lobe of energy in the broad mid-level trough across the CONUS will continue its approach today.
648 AM EST Wed Feb 17 2021 Dry and stable conditions will exist throughout southeast Michigan today and tonight under strong high pressure. This will maintain plenty of clear sky across the lowest 5000 ft, outside of perhaps a limited coverage of late day VFR stratocu. High pressure rooted in the mid-Mississippi Valley early this morning tracks east today with the center of the anticyclone passing over the southern Great Lakes. Lows tonight not as cold /single digits above 0/ as today's thermal trough moves out and clouds provide some insulation.
Periods of light snow continue today as cold front moves through the region. Temperatures trend warmer into the weekend. /ISSUED 445 AM MST Wed Feb 17 2021/ Surface pressure is rising this morning over Southern Alberta and northern portions of North-central Montana, indicating the position of an advancing cold front. While we have enjoyed a recovery from last week's bitter cold, the continuing gradual warming trend will be interrupted for a day due to the passing cold front. Warm advection develops on Thursday as a dry and prominent ridge builds over the Pacific NW and moves over the Rockies.
346 AM MST Wed Feb 17 2021 Periods of light snow continue today as cold front moves through the region. Temperatures trend warmer into the weekend. Surface pressure is rising this morning over Southern Alberta and northern portions of North-central Montana, indicating the position of an advancing cold front. While we have enjoyed a recovery from last week's bitter cold, the continuing gradual warming trend will be interrupted for a day due to the passing cold front. Warm advection develops on Thursday as a dry and prominent ridge builds over the Pacific NW and moves over the Rockies.
509 AM CST Wed Feb 17 2021 The Arctic high pressure has drifted east and is now centered over IL/IN this morning, though the ridge axis extends toward MN/WI.
Sounding profiles suggest that the DGZ is only saturated above 800 mb during the morning, but when the lower WAA is able to bring the temperature profiles into the DGZ, that is when we should expect the majority of our snowfall. While not exactly warm, look for afternoon highs to be reaching into the positive lower to mid teens, with areas along the Buffalo Ridge in SW MN likely stuck in the upper single digits.
Highs on Thursday are expected to get to around 20 across northern Wisconsin, with highs in the lower to middle 20s across east-central and northeast Wisconsin.
A drying trend will set in later today as a ridge of high pressure builds over the Pacific Northwest. The ridge axis passes over the Northern Rockies on Thursday and we get a break from winter weather. Thursday night, a strong closed system of low pressure sets up off the coast of British Columbia. Meanwhile, a persistent high pressure system resides further south, off the coast of California.
424 AM CST Wed Feb 17 2021 A cold front is en route to West TX and Southeast NM on the heels of an upper level disturbance which brought wintry precipitation to the area yesterday. Therefore, will go with a Freezing Fog Advisory for the Permian Basin and Lea County until 16Z. The cold front will usher in a reinforcing shot of Arctic air which has plagued the region over the past several days. Areas west of the Pecos River did get well above freezing yesterday, and that should be the case again today before the front arrives.
534 AM CST Wed Feb 17 2021 (Today and tonight) Remnant light snow continues across the area this morning in association with a mid-level trough axis/vort max. Otherwise, temperatures should continue a relative warming trend with highs well into the teens and low to mid 20s deg F (it helps when you are 15 to 25 deg F warmer than yesterday morning!).
The biggest questions now reside with temperatures over snow packed areas, and the freezing fog potential the next couple nights. We went ahead and adjusted temperatures a bit over snow packed areas to account for slightly cooler spots. Given these conditions, it seems freezing fog will certainly be possible over the western two-thirds of the area.
/issued 424 AM CST Wed Feb 17 2021/ A cold front is en route to West TX and Southeast NM on the heels of an upper level disturbance which brought wintry precipitation to the area yesterday. Therefore, will go with a Freezing Fog Advisory for the Permian Basin and Lea County until 16Z. The cold front will usher in a reinforcing shot of Arctic air which has plagued the region over the past several days. Areas west of the Pecos River did get well above freezing yesterday, and that should be the case again today before the front arrives.
Temps were several deg warmer this morning than Tue morning. An upper trough to the west will be slowly moving east this morning. Temps near the SFC will be about 10 to 15 deg warmer. High pressure will settle over the state at this time.
1149 AM CST Wed Feb 17 2021 (Today and tonight) Remnant light snow continues across the area this morning in association with a mid-level trough axis/vort max. Otherwise, temperatures should continue a relative warming trend with highs well into the teens and low to mid 20s deg F (it helps when you are 15 to 25 deg F warmer than yesterday morning!).
This morning's forecast is on track with high pressure beginning to push out of the area and precip moving in from the WSW. High temperatures will be a few degrees warmer than yesterday, ranging from 15 degrees around Galesburg to 22 degrees in Lawrenceville.
1037 AM MST Wed Feb 17 2021 Large-scale trough continues across the central US, with western WY remaining on the western periphery in NW flow aloft. The larger trough will move finally depart east Thursday morning, with brief ridging putting an end to the snowfall across western and central WY.
1) A wintry mix of snow, sleet, and freezing rain can be expected across the region tonight and Thursday morning.
Regardless, this is certainly warmer pattern with 850mb temperatures expected to rise above 0C for the first time in a while.
1) A wintry mix of snow, sleet, and freezing rain can be expected across the region tonight and Thursday morning. CDG Chattanooga Airport, TN 45 34 44 30 40 / 20 100 60 40 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 40 34 41 30 36 / 10 100 80 50 10 Oak Ridge, TN 40 33 42 28 36 / 10 100 70 50 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 43 32 43 32 36 / 10 100 100 60 20 NC.
Most of the high resolution guidance has struggled with this wave, however have trended the forecast towards the NAMNest which continues to indicate that weak warm advection centered through the DGZ will continue into the evening across areas east of I-29.
Otherwise it quite cold across the Mid-South with temps mainly in the teens and wind chills from zero into the low teens. Sleet and freezing rain mixing in will keep amounts down across parts of North MS though of course the impacts will still be substantial. South of that Helena-West Helena to Decaturville line expect a mixture of snow, sleet and freezing rain. The further south the better the chance of freezing rain. Further south expect periods of moderate sleet and freezing rain. Temps will not be quite as cold today with highs from the lower 20s to lower 30s. Expect some leftover light snow though there is possibility some freezing drizzle according to some model soundings.
Patchy, light freezing drizzle/fog will be possible at KLBB and KPVW overnight. Freezing fog could be potentially dense, but confidence remains low at this time. /issued 423 AM CST Wed Feb 17 2021/ Multi-lobed trough across the Central CONUS continues to support the cold air gift that keeps on giving. Still seeing some fog across the far southwest, but if the wind shift continues as it has the past few hours, we should be able to release the freezing fog advisory here with the morning package. Another lobe of energy in the broad mid-level trough across the CONUS will continue its approach today.