Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Broad upper trough centered over the nation/s mid section with fast west-northwest flow aloft across the CWA. -15 to -25, were over the high plains with wind chills from -25 to -40. Much warmer temperatures are forecast Monday as 700mb temperature increase to 0 to -5C.
So mixing working well across the higher elevations of the southwest. Highs will rise into the teens above zero west of the missouri river but remain cooler.
Temperatures warming early this morning as arctic high pressure moves out of the region.
1035 AM EST Sun Dec 18 2016 Over the last several days, the temperature and dewpoint readings have continued to climb with temperatures already in the lower 80s and dewpoints in the mid 70s along the island chain. Surface wise, an expansive western Atlantic ridge axis lies across south central Florida and well into the Gulf of Mexico. An abundance of insolation within a light to gentle southeast flow will allow high temperatures to climb into the lower to mid 80s.
For tonight, slightly warmer, but some areas will still see frosty conditions.
Also have some -SN mentioned at KHRO until the low cloud decks move south of the airport. Highs will be in the 20s to low 30s statewide, with the northern half of the state struggling to make the freezing mark today if at all. The effects of arctic high pressure will linger through Monday night.
Afternoon highs will improve upon yesterday's readings with most lower desert spots easily topping out into the lower 60s. Gradual warming aloft and a bit of an increase in winds will help to prevent another sub-freezing morning for Monday in most places, but some more sheltered areas could still dip into the lower 30s. Meanwhile, upstream pressure rises over the Great Basin allowed seasonably chilly air (and a quite dry airmass as well) to spill from the higher terrain of northern Arizona into lower desert communities yesterday; and with clear skies and light winds, ambient air temperatures have already plummeted into the 30s and lower 40s by midnight.
611 AM EST Sun Dec 18 2016 Above normal temperatures are expected to occur today given warm advection ahead of an approaching cold front. The cold front will cross the region late this afternoon, bringing showers to the area.
650 AM CST Sun Dec 18 2016 Most of Minnesota is very near or colder than -20F early this morning and western WI is only a few degrees warmer.
850 AM CST Sun Dec 18 2016 Clouds continue to increase over the west where warmer air mass is trying to work into the area. So mixing working well across the higher elevations of the southwest. Highs will rise into the teens above zero west of the missouri river but remain cooler.
/Issued 341 AM CST Sun Dec 18 2016/ Arctic high pressure currently expands through much of the central U.
Light snow associated with the upper level trough moving through the Great Lakes exited eastward by press time. It will take much of the day before the low level thermal trough builds fully over the Great Lakes, and it will be retreating back into Canada as it does build eastward. There is also a nose of high pressure shown building into Lower Michigan overnight. The larger scale ridge of high pressure will move eastward Monday and allow south wind to develop over the region.
635 AM EST Sun Dec 18 2016 -RA will continue to overspread the region this morning as a strong cold front prompts a dramatic wind shift to the NW around daybreak.
1026 AM EST Sun Dec 18 2016 Above normal temperatures are expected to occur today given warm advection ahead of an approaching cold front. The cold front will cross the region late this afternoon, bringing showers to the area.
525 AM CST Sun Dec 18 2016 VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS AREA TERMINALS THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. /issued 334 AM CST Sun Dec 18 2016/ Arctic cold front is now just exiting extreme se cwa, quickly replacing record high aftn temps for the date at svrl locations, with bitterly cold air. Temps to warm to near seasonal averages mid week, just in time for a weaker cold front to quickly move thru, and perhaps give a few showers to southern portions of the area. Deeper closed trough setting up over TX for Christmas holiday weekend, with rain chances increasing.
The lowest wind chill readings will be late tonight and early Monday where values may dip below zero north of interstate 40.
Very strong winds have developed in wake of the arctic cold front that blasted through South Texas earlier this morning. For tonight, the cold airmass and continued CAA will lead to temperatures dropping to near or below freezing for much of the region.
421 AM MST Sun Dec 18 2016 A little warm advection aloft in the back of yesterday's trough is will produce some clouds over and east of the Front Range this morning. With mountain winds decreasing this afternoon there will probably be a tendency toward cooler east winds in areas just east of the mountains this afternoon. For tonight there will be continued moderation as there is better warming in the lower levels. This will mainly affect the ridges and foothills areas though as the stable low levels should still keep the valley cold pools intact. Across the northeast plains, sfc lee troughing will help to enhance downslope winds in the foothills. It will be warmer, but snowfield we inherited over the weekend will likely produce some variability in the temperatures across the Denver area.
The main forecast concerns for today will be gusty north winds and subfreezing temperatures. Subfreezing temperatures will also continue across a large part of south central Texas this morning. High temperatures will range from the lower 30s to the lower 40s. Overnight lows will drop into the teens across the Hill Country to lower 30s south of the Highway 57 corridor.
557 AM CST Sun Dec 18 2016 A positively tilted mid-level trough stretching from the upper Great Lakes to southern Plains early this morning will de-amplify as it accelerates northeast into an increasingly confluent flow regime, with building upstream heights over the north-central states.
Dewpoint temperatures in the low-mid 70s thanks to deep layer Sly wind flow will assist the potential for development of showers. The Air Force 915 mhz profiler network shows 25 to 30 kt sly flow from the lowest gate through 7k FT.
314 AM PST Sun Dec 18 2016 Freezing temperatures in the Valley this weekend with dry conditions. Dry northerly flow continues across northern California this morning, with high pressure aloft over the eastern Pacific. Temperatures as of this writing are at or below freezing across much of the Valley. Not much change in the pattern is expected over the next 24 hours, with mostly sunny skies during the day, and another freezing night Sunday night.
The wind flow will turn NE and offshore Monday as a ridge builds in from Ncal. Surface winds have decoupled resulting in significant cooler temperatures in the San Joaquin Valley and Kern county desert. An exception may be in the high desert due to stronger offshore Santa Ana winds. Model guidance suggests widespread freezing temperatures across the San Joaquin Valley overnight, with many of the typically coldest locations falling below 28 degrees for a couple of hours during early Sunday morning. An upper ridge will continue to build inland from the Pacific through Monday. This will continued with offshore flow and favorable conditions for cold nights with lows falling below freezing Monday morning.
/Issued 332 AM EST Sun Dec 18 2016/ Strong cold front knocking on the door of the NW CWA this morning with an isolated severe threat of damaging winds and possible brief tornado given the high shear low CAPE environment. a change from near the low 60s to 30s and 40s by afternoon. The NW tier may even reach the freezing mark by late morning which brings a slight chance for some black ice given any lingering sfc moisture. since the thermal columns indicate a quick loss of saturation within the low/mid levels.
433 AM CST Sun Dec 18 2016 Most of Minnesota is very near or colder than -20F early this morning and western WI is only a few degrees warmer.
402 AM CST Sun Dec 18 2016 Upper level trough over the Northern Plains will shift east today. Warmer air will continue to move into the area through Mon then level off. Much warmer air will move into the area after today.
Frigid weather will begin to moderate tonight and then more rapidly Monday ahead of approaching trough from the Gulf of Alaska. The trough will spresd light snow from north to south as far south as the Snake Basin Monday afternoon. Light winds today and tonight will become light southeasterly Monday ahead of the approaching trough.
Northerly winds will diminish this evening as high pressure settles into the region. /ISSUED 400 AM CST Sun Dec 18 2016/ A sprawling arctic high pressure area now dominates over half the United States early this morning, including all of Texas save the lower Rio Grande Valley. Some relaxation should occur by afternoon, however, as the high center slips southward, allowing speeds to diminish to a range of 10 to 15 mph toward sunset.
As the stratus lifts and the sun heats the land, we should have no trouble seeing the digital readout hit the convective temperature that is in the lower 80s. High pressure near Bermuda will continue to produce southerly winds with warm and humid conditions that may lead to areas of sea fog through later today and tonight. A cold front will bridge through through the region Monday with winds becoming northeast through mid week.
A couple spots across the far nortwest were warmer than anticipated due to WAA chewing into the predicted snowpack inversion near whitewater. Warm advective winds are expected to keep up today but will likely not reach the freezing mark by the end of the day. GAH PREVIOUS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION: Temperatures warming early this morning as arctic high pressure moves out of the region.
This will not last long though as the winds will start to pick up out of the southwest on the back side of the ridge axis, which will push the wind chills back into the advisory range by late this afternoon. These southwest winds will also start to bring some warmer air into the area and temperatures are expected to start slowly warming by late evening and continue to rise through the overnight into Monday morning.
corrected Most of Minnesota is very near or colder than -20F early this morning and western WI is only a few degrees warmer.
530 AM CST Sun Dec 18 2016 The 00Z/18th upper air analysis depicted a deep longwave upper trough, extending from Hudson Bay through the Central/Southwestern CONUS. Return southerly flow on Monday will allow temperatures to rise close to freezing with full sunshine.
349 PM PDT Fri Oct 21 2016 Mild afternoons are expected through Saturday under high pressure.
High pressure at the surface will be moving across the region tonight. The high is not exactly clean however, so will keep scattered wording over north-central WI into the evening. Deep upper troughing will finally depart the area overnight, and the resultant warm advection will bring a swath of broken mid and high clouds across the area. As the clouds depart in the afternoon, should see the sun return along with warmer temps.
Winds have begun to shift more northeasterly in response to the eastward advancing high pressure. As the high shifts farther east on Saturday, winds will gradually veer more east southeast with high temperatures recovering nicely into the mid to upper 70s.
553 PM CDT Fri Oct 21 2016 Sharp upper trough is situated over the eastern CONUS with ridging over the Rockies. At the surface, a ridge extends from the western Great Lakes into the Arklatex region. Broad upper ridging is expected to slowly progress east and will encompass the Rockies into the Plains through Sun morning. This will keep lee troughing in place along with well above normal highs in the 70s and low 80s for Sat. This will allow a weak cold front to push south across the central Plains Sun but will be too weak to knock temps to below normal readings. Upper ridging will then build back in over the Rockies into the Plains to start the work week, allowing well above normal temps to continue.
Tomorrow will be slightly warmer as 850mb temperatures hover around 8 degrees C, which is only about a degree or so warmer than today. However, due to such an anomalously dry airmass, dewpoints could mix out into the low 30s and upper 20s tomorrow.
A lee trof is forecast to organize Sat PM with an attendant thermal ridge and thus more a definitive warm up for Sat.
252 PM MDT Fri Oct 21 2016 An upper level ridge will be over the area tonight and Saturday, keeping the weather dry and warm. High temps on Sat are expected to be 15 degrees or more above average across the southeast plains, and around 10 degrees above average in the high valleys.
High clouds were streaming over the area with temperatures in the 60s across most of the lower elevations with heights building aloft. A disturbance will move into the Northern Rockies tonight, dragging a Pacific cold front across the area late tonight and Saturday. The aforementioned disturbance will help flatten the ridge over the Northern Rockies allowing temperatures to be near to a few degrees cooler than Friday.
Forecast on track for high pressure being centered far enough southwest of us for enough of a pressure gradient in our northeast. Saturday is looking like another cool day, but sunshine should make it feel a little warmer even though temperatures likely will be close to today's highs. Saturday night, the high will be to our south, making for a gentle south to southwesterly wind overnight. Lows should respond by being a little warmer and high enough to preclude frost chances.
High pressure from the Mid-MS River Valley to TX is forecast to expand eastward in the near term, with its axis becoming positioned from TN to LA by Saturday. Still though, much cooler there with numbers ranging from 49 to 54. Under sunny skies on Saturday, daytime highs in the lower to mid 70's are very close to what we normally expect for late October.
Southerly winds will pickup a bit more on Saturday with highs near normal in the low 60s far east to around 70 over central Missouri. A dry fropa is expected on Sun with cooler temps on Mon. With good agreement in timing and thermal profile ahead of the fnt, raised temps for Sun twd the warmer guidance. High pressure ridge axis over central Missouri will shift southeast tonight into Saturday morning. Wind will shift from the north-northwest to the south by Saturday morning as the ridge axis moves east of the area.
The boundary may kick off a few showers over the warmer waters, but expect a dry forecast for land with only a few clouds accompanying the front. High pressure builds in across the Deep South behind the front with northwest winds ushering in a dry and cooler air mass across the region for the weekend.
149 PM EDT Fri Oct 21 2016 A cold front will continue to cross the eastern portion of the state through the afternoon. An upper-level trough will begin to cross the region later this afternoon as the trough axis moves east of the area by Saturday. Much cooler. the cold front will continue to push eastward across the state and winds will increase from the west northwest. This will enhance the winds over the warmer lakes waters and thus the reason for the Lake Wind Advisory. The current lake temperatures are in the lower/middle 70s and overnight lows dipping into the 40s. Leaned more toward the slightly warmer mav guidance with good mixing. except the lower 50s over the lakes. High pressure from the Plains will be building in behind departing upper trough.
By late day the line should start shifting south and east as upper low approaching and is expected to be east of the area by Saturday. Scattered showers will decrease overnight as a weak ridge builds over the area.
1259 PM CDT Fri Oct 21 2016 High pressure ridge over the dvn cwa providing full sunshine and light winds this morning into early this afternoon. Elsewhere, winds become southerly overnight with warmer temperatures there.
Abundant sunshine and dry soils suggest the high side of guidance for Saturday afternoon temperatures.
151 PM EDT Fri Oct 21 2016 Upper level trough keeps showers and clouds around into tonight.
341 PM EDT Fri Oct 21 2016 A ridge of high pressure currently over the western CWA will continue to diminish lake effect rain and snow showers that are mainly over central Upper MI. The upper trough over the Great Lakes right now will shift east while an upper ridge moving in behind it. Since cloud cover will move in from the west, the coldest area will be interior central Upper MI in the low 20s. Saturday night: A weak ridge will be in place Saturday evening before slowly sliding off to the east of the area late Saturday night. Temperatures will be warmer than Friday night due to the aforementioned increased cloud cover/WAA.
Winds at mountain top are weakening and will trend more westerly with time as the ridge axis moves overhead on Saturday. Aside from keeping temperatures immediately underneath the wave clouds cooler during the early afternoon, these areas should not have any trouble reaching high temperatures in the mid 70s today like the surrounding Plains. Do not expect wave cloud development tonight across the foothills and nearby plains given weaker winds aloft out of the west Saturday morning and the stable layer above and just downstream of the ridge tops is weaker than on Friday.
1238 PM CDT Fri Oct 21 2016 late this morning a cold front was entering the northwest with good mixing in its wake. The weak cold front moves into the northwest late morning/early afternoon and tracks southeast through the forecast area during the afternoon hours. Expect increasing west to northwest winds associated with the cold front but moreso due to the boundary layer mixing out to higher winds aloft during max heating this afternoon. The cold front moves into western ND Saturday afternoon. This would result in warmer daytime highs and stronger winds Saturday night across western and central ND.
/issued 1154 AM CDT Fri Oct 21 2016/ High pressure will continue to build into the Mid-South today. fans of Fall will finally get a few days of near to slightly cooler than normal temperatures, along with clear skies and northerly breezes. Early this morning, temperatures are mostly in the low to middle 50s. Afternoon highs will be in the low to middle 60s across the region. although winds may make it feel slightly cooler. Memphis and most of the Delta Area is expected to cool into the low to middle 40s with temperatures as low as the middle 30s in West Tennessee near the Tennessee River.
249 PM CDT Fri Oct 21 2016 Quiet night ahead as fairly strong upper level ridging builds across the Northern Plains. While the air mass is a bit warmer than this morning, do expect cool overnight lows in the 30s. Southerly flow will increase through the day as high pressure shifts east. This will allow warmer air to move in and should set up a very nice day. Plains upper ridging will provide plenty of subsidence, dry air, and mild temperatures for a couple of pleasant fall days after the short wave passes well to the north along the Canadian border.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 44 65 41 75 / 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 44 61 40 71 / 10 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 44 62 40 72 / 0 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 40 55 35 69 / 30 0 0 0.
The rest of the area has seen a few nights with near-freezing temperatures and frost, so will discontinue issuing frost/freeze headlines in those areas. Highs should range in the mid to upper 50s in the northeast half of the area, to the lower 60s in the southwest half.
103 PM EDT Fri Oct 21 2016 Low pressure is well east of the region this morning as we await the passage of the upper level trough. As this trough passes it will allow much cooler air to spill into the area.
650 PM EDT FRI OCT 21 2016 An upper level trough and attendant cold front will track east and off the coast this evening. Much cooler and drier air will overspread the state tonight and Saturday. The showers have all but ended in the far eastern Coastal Plain associated with the cold frontal passage. Winds will again weaken Saturday night, possibly enough so to decouple across the southern and western Piedmont as high pressure builds in from the southwest.
1214 PM CDT Fri Oct 21 2016 Not much going today other than the high clouds and the warming temperatures. Highs will be warmer today than yesterday despite the high level clouds. Raised the highs a little in southwest Minnesota due to favorable downsloping winds off the Buffalo Ridge which will add a few degrees to the temps. Then the surface winds will begin to veer to the northwest Saturday night behind a very weak cold front, ushered through by a mid level short wave maximized near 700mb passing across the Dakotas and Minnesota.
Cold front to the northwest will advance as far east as Missoula, MT - McCall, ID - Burns, OR, tonight before dissipating Saturday morning.
This should be enough to keep temperatures above freezing this evening.
255 PM CDT Fri Oct 21 2016 The upper trough axis was moving east of the region this afternoon with most of the lower clouds shifting east-northeast of the forecast area.
353 PM CDT Fri Oct 21 2016 With high pressure controlling the area weather through most of the period, this is primarily a temperature driven forecast. Ordinarily the second night behind the cold front does tend to be the coldest - especially for areas along and east of the Pearl River where cold air drainage can enhance cooling. In fact, 925mb temps are forecast to be as much as 4 degrees warmer in some places.
Low level moisture advection will gradually increase Saturday Night with warmer min temps and a few patches of cloud cover.
403 PM EDT Fri Oct 21 2016 Low pressure along the mid-Atlantic will merge with another low tracking up the east coast and continue north to New England on Saturday.
Amplified upper-level trough currently swinging through the forecast area. The cold front associated with this feature is well off to our east but we are still seeing some post-frontal precip occurring this afternoon due to wrap around moisture. As the trough axis becomes negatively tilted overnight and pushes east of the Appalachians, our post-frontal precip will gradually taper off this evening and overnight. Expecting gusty winds to remain across the higher elevations overnight, with gusts between 25 and 30 mph. Cloud cover will linger tomorrow morning but will slowly clear out as the day progresses with the trough moving further east and drier air building in.
There is an upper level ridge to the west of the forecast area this afternoon and this will linger through Saturday as it becomes more broad across the CONUS. Some areas will be a little warmer than last night, but some will have similar temperatures. Skies will be sunny and with the warm advection, south winds and the upper ridge a little further to the east, the temperatures will be warmer than today. Even through the cold front moves through, temperatures will be warmer as the winds turn to the west.
High pressure tonight will cause light and variable winds before southeast 5-10 knot winds return by late tomorrow morning as the high drifts east. With a dry atmospheric column and and building high pressure aloft, skies should be mostly sunny. Saturday will be another fine looking day, starting off chilly in the morning (40s/low 50s) but ending a couple degrees warmer across the board, with mid 70s in the Hill Country to low 80s towards the Coastal Plains.
325 PM EDT Fri Oct 21 2016 A cold front will push east of the region this evening.
Tonight Through Saturday Dry high pressure with west flow aloft will be over the area tonight and Saturday.
Temperatures will still be around normal for late October lows, in the 40s, and 30s in some of the lower lying river and sheltered areas.
to the lower to mid 70s for central and western portions of the CWA. on the back side of trough moving thru the area. building H5/H7 mid level ridge over the region. combined with increasing southerly flow thru the day will give the region above normal conditions with daytime highs reaching into the lower 80s for most locales.