Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
The airmass remains super soupy, with dewpoints in the lower to mid 70s. The shallow layer of northeast flow north of the trough axis has maintained the low stratus at the terminals, at times as low as 500 ft. MIMIC TPW loops place a denigrating cold front across the Southeastern Gulf of Mexico, and a secondary moisture maximum over the Keys within the previously mentioned area of moisture convergence. Strengthening high pressure over the Mississippi River Valley will bridge the Southeastern Gulf of Mexico this morning, eroding the low level trough by this afternoon.
Stratus will continue to hang tough as ridge axis remains just west of the forecast area for much of today. There may be a few more breaks in the overcast as the shallow moist layer continues to shrink and some partial sunshine is expected in the south and west today closest to the ridge axis. Temperatures will climb toward the low 40s in the south where the insolation will help by afternoon although low 30s will persist in the north under the thicker stratus and close proximity to the thermal trof. Ridge will slide across central Iowa tonight with light winds and the continued shrinking of status. Temperatures will also be cooler tonight as the light winds and additional clearing should enhance radiational cooling allowing readings to drop into the 20s overnight.
930 AM EST Fri Dec 2 2016 Low pressure will gradually exit into the maritimes by tonight.
Breezy conditions can be expected up in the higher hills of the Bay Area Friday morning. As a result, temperatures are trending warmer across the northern area by 4 to 8 degrees compared to yesterday at this time, while locations in the calmer wind areas are running cooler by as many as 11 degrees, with readings in the upper 30s and 40s. Dew point temperatures are much cooler across the board with readings in the upper 20s to the upper 30s.
Upper ridging will briefly move in today and into the early part of Saturday, but cloud cover will be working in ahead of the ridge axis as the upper trough progresses from Northern Mexico this weekend. The closed low over northern Mexico will linger across the Rio Grande Valley this weekend, and another trough will progress eastward across the Great Plains and Midwest.
Weather pattern to change today as an upper low develops to our southwest drawing moisture over the region, while inducing an east wind into central and southern New Mexico. A wintry mix of precipitation is possible over portions of the east with mostly snow over the higher terrain elsewhere.
223 AM PST Fri Dec 2 2016 Strong easterly ridge winds continue today in the Sierra with dangerous wind chill temperatures possible in the highest elevations.
535 AM EST Fri Dec 2 2016 High pressure will build over the Eastern U.
407 AM CST Fri Dec 2 2016 High pressure will move east today but not before providing another dry and mild weather day. Moisture will begin to slowly increase later tonight in advance of an upper level low pressure system over the southwest U. Isentropic ascent overtop of the retreating high pressure system will result in increasing clouds and light rainfall mainly after midnight across the Delta counties south and west of Memphis.
910 AM EST Fri Dec 2 2016 Weak frontal boundary has pushed into south FL with drier and cooler conditions over EC FL this morning as high pressure builds in behind the front.
642 AM CST Fri Dec 2 2016 Have kept patchy freezing drizzle going for the early morning hours over the southwest and south central as some very light freezing drizzle fell in Bismarck and webcam up by Garrison Dam had a few spots on it. Still kept some patchy fog over the southwest in the higher terrain. Upper level analysis place low over western Quebec/eastern Ontario with trough stretching from the upper midwest towards the Great Basin. Cool and moist low levels over our area has lead to persistant low cloud cover with some spots of freezing drizzle, though this has tapered off over the last few hours. A little clearing may develop over the southwest/south central overnight ahead an an approaching trough. Aforementioned trough quickly pushes through the area bringing low snow chances for Saturday.
650 AM EST Fri Dec 2 2016 High pressure will continue to build in from the southwest into Saturday.
338 AM PST Fri Dec 2 2016 Cold front that moved through the region will bring in colder airmass with possible freezing conditions in the San Joaquin Valley tonight.
A weak low and mid level trof will swing through the area today which will turn the flow to the northwest.
First of Three Weather Systems Will Impact the Area Saturday Seasonable conditions prevail today with weak ridging across the Plains as the area will be ahead of the next trough which continues to take shape over the southwestern US.
514 AM EST Fri Dec 2 2016 Low pressure across the Great Lakes will keep clouds and near seasonal temperatures across the area into the weekend. Mid level trough over eastern Canada will continue to transition east through tonight, with weak cold advection across the region. Southwest flow today will keep bulk of lake enhanced snow showers or sprinkles well north, with only scattered snow showers north of I-80 and in the ridges. Flow will turn slightly more to the northwest tonight, which will allow for a bit more coverage of snow showers into the ridges and I-80 corridor, but only a light accumulation if any.
Have TSRA's mentioned in PROB groups for the latter part of the TAF period due to better dynamics increasing late tonight into early Sat as a warm front moves across S TX. Rain chances expected to increase significantly today through Saturday in response to abundant moisture advecting into S TX and a developing coastal trough. In addition, a large area of diffluent flow aloft and an approaching upper level low pressure system will also aid in convection. In a nutshell, the best chance is expected to be across the eastern CWA today due to the developing coastal trough, then shifting north and NW tonight due to the trough beginning to move inland and the approaching upper low from the west. The highest rain chances will be Sat and will shift to the NE as the better dynamics shift that direction.
A weak upper level trof was over the area early this morning. Surface temperatures should stay above freezing over most areas early this morning, so minimal weather impacts are expected.
337 AM MST Fri Dec 2 2016 A strong and cold low pressure will move quickly south through the region today and tonight, with its center tracking south along the Colorado River Valley.
The transition to snow should be fairly quick for the higher elevations of the NW Texas and W Oklahoma Panhandles. If this becomes reality then it wouldn't be a rain to sleet transition it could be a transition from rain to freezing drizzle. While the ground remains warm enough to contain most of the snow expected to fall to grassy surfaces, bridges and overpasses could become slick and hazardous.
Lots of low level moisture in place in the 1000 to 2500 ft agl layer so despite high pressure it will remain cloudy.
An upper low deepening into Nrn Mexico will tap into buoyant subtropical Pacific air to rapidly destabilize the air aloft over much of TX and raise Pwat values to near climatological peaks for December over the weekend. Will thus favor the cooler GFS model which is more distinguished with cooler air over Central TX than areas to the SW of San Antonio. This trough should also reinforce the overrunning pattern, and a near steady stream of showers and isolated storms are expected this weekend.
and Saturday A continued feed of moisture off the Great Lakes and cyclonic flow from a broad upper level low will keep skies mostly cloudy through Saturday with very little diurnal variability between highs and lows. Despite cool surface temperatures and expansive cloud cover there have been some reports of freezing drizzle across north central Wisconsin early this morning given the fairly shallow layer of moisture in place. Given the model soundings indicate this moisture will remain shallow today and tonight, will put in freezing drizzle in addition to snow showers across north central Wisconsin during these periods.
557 AM EST Fri Dec 2 2016 Low pressure will exit into the maritimes today and tonight.
There will be a band of warm advection mid clouds, but with a dry/warming subcloud layer the low pops Saturday are more than likely to be just some flurries.
/Issued 307 AM CST Fri Dec 2 2016/ One more dry/mild day as upper low digs across southern California into northern Baja region.
Visible satellite imagery shows skies have become clear across the entire region as the last of the low clouds exit to the south.
An upper disturbance over southern Idaho is forecast to drop south into Arizona and combine with an upper low. the upper low over Arizona will continue to drop south into northern Mexico, while the disturbance in the southwest flow out of New Mexico lifts across our far southeastern Plains into western Kansas.
Skies become mostly cloudy to cloudy tonight as a deepening trough and a developing upper level low over Northwestern Mexico advects mid and high level cloud cover over the region. The increase in cloud cover will provide for a little warmer overnight lows then this morning. At the surface, high pressure over the Southeastern States will keep a dry.
Temperatures ranged from the upper 20s in the eastern Ozarks, to the lower 40s in southeast Kansas.
High pressure will dominate through Saturday bringing dry weather conditions.
1053 AM EST Fri Dec 2 2016 Pockets of light to moderate rain and showers have been in the vicinity of the Lower and Middle Keys this morning. The cold front in the vicinity of the Keys will sag a little further south through tonight while dissipating. Temperatures may also struggle to get into the lower 80s this afternoon, but maintained those numbers thinking that even a short break in the cloud cover should allow them to get there.
Off to the northwest across the eastern Gulf of Alaska, a powerful low pressure system moving onshore north of Juneau. Occluded front extends from this low with triple point just off the coast of Vancouver British Columbia. 700mb winds begin to increase Saturday morning as the trough moves east.
824 AM EST Fri Dec 2 2016 Low pressure across the Great Lakes will keep clouds and near seasonal temperatures across the area into the weekend. Mid level trough over eastern Canada will continue to transition east through tonight, with weak cold advection across the region. Southwest flow today will keep bulk of lake enhanced snow showers or sprinkles well north, with only scattered snow showers north of I-80 and in the ridges. Flow will turn slightly more to the northwest tonight, which will allow for a bit more coverage of snow showers into the ridges and I-80 corridor, but only a light accumulation if any.
Broad trough encompasses much of the country as a complex upper trough begins to deepen and split over the western portion of the country. Models started out fine on the low level thermal field but were a little too cold. I went ahead pulled the pops further south with the highest pops in the extreme south and also having the highest pops after midnight. Due to cloud cover and some cold air advection, temperatures will be cooler than todays.
Most light snow ends this morning however areas of freezing fog are possible across much of northern and central Nevada through mid day.
Weak upper trough was pushing through southern Montana early this morning and was producing some light snow showers over mainly central zones. Activity was pretty weak and will continue to shift southeast with the trough and weaken through the morning. Will keep the afternoon dry as the trough sinks into Wyoming.
This regime will bring a NNW flow over the area today with winds veering NNE into Saturday with a weak coastal trough developing along the coast. slightly milder due to the increase in high level clouds but still expect lows near 40 inland and closer to 50 degrees along the coast as the low level flow becomes more onshore. Sat high temperatures will moderate into the lower 70s across inland NE FL with mid/upper 60s across SE GA and along the Atlantic coast under breezy onshore flow. High Pressure builds north of the region through the weekend with N/NW winds 10-15 knots today become N/NE tonight with seas 3-5 ft.
Attention will quickly turn to an ua trough digging south-southeast across southern Cali nearing the Baja early this morning, and is progged to close off later this morning. According to the Weather Prediction Center, rainfall amounts of 3-5 inches will be possible tonight through tomorrow night, with the highest amounts occurring across portions of deep east TX, central and north central LA and into southwest AR.
512 AM CST Fri Dec 2 2016 Latest water vapor satellite imagery shows upper level closed low over eastern Canada and northeast United States and longwave trough over the Rocky Mountains. as surface/upper level ridge axis builds into eastern Minnesota and western Wisconsin Saturday morning. High temperatures today are expected to remain nearly steady in the lower to middle 30s.
943 AM EST Fri Dec 2 2016 High pressure will prevail through Saturday.
407 AM CST Fri Dec 2 2016 Latest water vapor and IR satellite imagery shows cirrus increasing to our west ahead of a deepening trough in the Southwest United States. Models are in agreement that this trough will dig southward and evolve into a deep closed low that moves into northern Mexico by tomorrow night. NAM and GFS Bufkit soundings at Woodward show >1,000 ft of above freezing wet bulb temperatures, with a warming layer just above that which is nearly isothermal and slightly warmer than freezing.
/issued 407 AM CST Fri Dec 2 2016/ High pressure will move east today but not before providing another dry and mild weather day. Moisture will begin to slowly increase later tonight in advance of an upper level low pressure system over the southwest U. Isentropic ascent overtop of the retreating high pressure system will result in increasing clouds and light rainfall mainly after midnight across the Delta counties south and west of Memphis.
Upper level analysis place low over western Quebec/eastern Ontario with trough stretching from the upper midwest towards the Great Basin. Cool and moist low levels over our area has lead to persistant low cloud cover with some spots of freezing drizzle, though this has tapered off over the last few hours. A little clearing may develop over the southwest/south central overnight ahead an an approaching trough. Aforementioned trough quickly pushes through the area bringing low snow chances for Saturday.
An area of low pressure diving toward Baja California is bringing gusty north winds to much of our region today.
620 AM EST Fri Dec 2 2016 Flow around a large low pressure system to the northeast will keep cool and mainly cloudy conditions across the region today. High pressure will gradually build into the area on Saturday.
High pressure was located over the eastern Pacific and over the Bahamas. Further east, a closed low was noted over eastern Quebec with a trough extending south into the Mid Atlantic states. At the surface, weak high pressure was present from the Dakotas south into the Ozarks. Mid level clouds were abundant with the high pressure and extended from the Dakotas south into the Nebraska Sandhills. Further south, clouds will be more scattered in nature, so highs in the lower 40s are on track. For tonight: The before mentioned trough of low pressure over the intermountain west, will track into the central and northern high plains. Highs will be mild, generally in the lower to middle 40s on Saturday.
627 AM EST Fri Dec 2 2016 High pressure will prevail through Saturday.
One more day of dry weather today and tonight as high pressure will remain over us before sliding to the east on Saturday.
349 AM MST Fri Dec 2 2016 Currently the satellite water vapor image is showing a low pressure system centered over Arizona advecting some moisture into Utah and Western Colorado.
Tonight a mid/upper level low pressure will track over the southwest US, which will lead to more southwest flow aloft. Towards sunrise the mid level moisture and lift may support precip although the lower levels will start off dry. The lower levels may become saturated allowing precip to reach the ground. Temperatures are forecasted to be right around freezing during this time frame therefore either rain and or snow could not be ruled out. Also, the expansive cloud cover could prevent the temperatures from cooling into the lower 30s. Along with the precip comes warmer temperatures in weak warm advection ahead of the wave, which by the noon hour has light precip type as rain.
General high surface pressure and slight ridging aloft will keep conditions dry for most of the PAH forecast area through the daylight hours Saturday, though clouds will be on the increase from southwest to northeast even before daybreak. Dewpoints in the lower 30s represent the dry air in the lower trop that will have to be overcome by the falling pcpn.
Upper level ridging will build in quickly today, bringing partly cloudy skies and slightly milder temperatures. As the upper level flow increases and becomes NW tonight, increasing moisture will move southeast over the area, with snow showers mainly in the higher terrain north of a line from Burns to Boise to Fairfield. The chance for showers continues Saturday, with the focus again on the higher terrain of the north, but the Owyhees, Steens Mtn, and Southwest Highlands will also see some precipitation.
TFJ The weak meso trough moves south as a ridge over Alberta forms a Chinook that moves south down the Front Range into Montana today. Tonight the ridge gets flattened by a trough swinging east through Alberta. This trough is part of the bigger storm in the Gulf of Alaska, which is driving moisture east. Saturday morning the models are calling for a post-Chinook chance of light snow and freezing rain with little QPF moving through the area Saturday.
647 AM EST Fri Dec 2 2016 A weak cold front is slowly moving south across South Florida.
Afternoon temperatures will increase slightly today ahead of a deepening upper low, now beginning to work its way over the southwestern CONUS.
The weak meso trough moves south as a ridge over Alberta forms a Chinook that moves south down the Front Range into Montana today. Tonight the ridge gets flattened by a trough swinging east through Alberta. This trough is part of the bigger storm in the Gulf of Alaska, which is driving moisture east. Saturday morning the models are calling for a post-Chinook chance of light snow and freezing rain with little QPF moving through the area Saturday.
/issued 359 AM CST Fri Dec 2 2016/ (Today and Tonight) A deepening upper trough over the Desert Southwest, will form a closed low as it drops south into northwest Mexico this evening. Precipitation may taper off this evening but will ramp up again after midnight as lift increases with an approaching disturbance ahead of the upper low.
Convective temps are progged in the low 90s and storm development is possible toward late afternoon. Hot and dry conditions are expected over the upcoming weekend as an upper level ridge of high pressure spreads its influence across the plains.
One thing going against the storm potential will be the lack of daytime heating, as a cold front sweeps across the region during the day on Friday. Slightly below to near normal temperatures are expected as an upper level low over the Pacific Northwest shifting NE into Canada and drags a broad low pressure trough across the region.
307 AM CDT THU JUN 9 2016 The heat is on! Upper ridge axis stretched well into central Canada at 06Z with scattered pockets of convection over central and western Nebraska. One thing to note in tonights model runs however is a faster translation of the initial ridge axis to the east compared to past runs. At this time POPs remain on the low end but adjustments may be needed in later forecasts if similar trend shows up in the drier models.
1249 AM CDT THU JUN 9 2016 Due to upper level low, ISOLD-SCT SHRA/TSRA are possible along and east of I-35 Thursday afternoon into early evening. /EXTENDING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS NW THIS EVE/ Satellite, radar and VAD wind data suggests the upper low center is between Cotulla and Hebbronville early this evening. Models show the upper low to pivot and shift NE through Thursday morning, so will avoid changes outside the first period. Upper air analysis this morning showed a large amplitude ridge over the western half of the country with a weakness underneath it along the gulf coast. At the surface, there was a trough near the coast and high pressure over east Texas. The upper level weakness under the ridge will remain along the Texas coast.
On Thursday, upper trough/pv lobe slips east toward wrn ks, with strongest upward motion shifting eastward out of the area through the day. Still enough moisture and weak instability to force isolated tsra over mainly the mountains again, while best chances at lower elevations will likely stay over the far sern corner of the plains, where upward motion associated with the upper trough lingers into late afternoon. With just a little more sun and slightly less convection, max temps most areas will creep upward a degf or two many areas, with mid 90s over portions of the lower Arkansas Valley.
A weak upper level trough will swing out across western Kansas by tonight. Anyway, have the highest pops (low chance) the southwest zones where convergence is the strongest and at the base of the synoptic trough. Otherwise, today will be warm with highs in the low to mid 90s. Lee troughing will lead to another day of breezy southerly winds.
1110 PM MDT WED JUN 8 2016 Weak trough moving through the region today will exit to the east tonight and allow ridging to build back in on Thursday.
149 AM EDT THU JUN 9 2016 High pressure will maintain dry and cool weather today. Dry and cool today with broad high pressure at the surface.
Drier and slightly cooler air will continue to filter in as a dry high pressure center builds into our region.
244 AM CDT THU JUN 9 2016 Quiet conditions continue across the mid state as upper level ridging continues to build over the Great Plains, and eventually will move over the eastern U. As the upper ridge moves eastward, temperatures will begin to climb into the weekend. In addition to rising temperatures, the low level winds will become more southerly on Friday, and bring in additional moisture to the mid state.
521 AM EDT THU JUN 9 2016 Low pressure in the Gulf of St Lawrence will bring showers to Northern Maine today and tonight.
1222 AM CDT THU JUN 9 2016 At H5 large ridge over the western and central CONUS with several waves rounding the ridge in Canada and moving through the northern plains. Closed low moving through Pennsylvania. The upper level ridge will strengthen further, with temperatures continuing to rise. Main feature will be ridge over the central CONUS through the weekend. Trough moving through the northern plains Thursday evening. Much warmer Friday with highs in the upper 90s and dewpoints in the 50s and 60s.
A cold front continues to move across far northeast Oregon and southeast Washington this evening but will be exiting into Idaho in the next couple of hours. The upper level trough off in the Gulf of Alaska will move closer to the Pacific Northwest on Thursday with a closed low off the coast of Washington by afternoon.
228 AM EDT THU JUN 9 2016 High pressure remains today.
Today Through Friday Night A large ridge of high pressure is over the center part of the country with an upper trough over the eastern third. and another trough entering the Pacific Northwest. The upper ridge will spread eastward through the period and will encompass much of the country by Friday night.
An offshore upper level trough will keep southwest flow over the area through Friday.