Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Another area will be with storms forming to our north along bands out ahead of a slow-moving cold front. This trough and the accompanying surface feature as well as plenty of available moisture will keep storms chances up for much of the day Wednesday. For highs, generally have leaned toward the cooler MAV guidance, expecting more clouds earlier than we had today.
/Tonight through Wednesday Night/ Weak area of low pressure aloft continues to linger across Deep E TX, aiding daytime heating in producing sct convection. Tonight, the upper low will drift nwd around the periphery of the upper ridge, which is currently centered over the sern CONUS, positioning it over NE TX. The low will aid in another round of mainly diurnally driven convection Wednesday, with the best coverage expected across our nw.
We also increased winds across the southwest late tonight where we expect a low level jet to impact the surface winds over the higher elevations. Return flow around the high will set up a southeast wind flow across the west. Forecast highlights in the short term period will be isolated showers/thunder this afternoon central and east, followed by warmer temperatures and more humid conditions for Wednesday. Currently, S/WV mid level trough moving east across northern Minnesota with northwest flow aloft across North Dakota along with a subtle embedded wave working its way across the state. Strengthening southerly flow will bring into the region warmer air and increasing sfc dewpoint temperatures.
712 PM EDT Tue Jul 21 2020 The upper ridge will continue to dominate the weather early this week before weakening later in the week as an upper trough moves into the Ohio Valley and Mid Atlantic region.
Patchy fog is likely late tonight, especially if the high cloud canopy can thin/clear.
/Tonight/ A narrow band of convection continues to develop and shift N from the Lower Sabine Valley of SE TX/SW LA N across the Toledo Bend Country, near the remnants of a weak vorticity lobe along a N-S shear axis extending along the TX/LA line W of the center of upper ridging anchored over the SE CONUS.
41 Weak ridging aloft is expected to continue through the forecast period. Wednesday will bring a similar story as today with weak ridging aloft and slightly higher pops across the northern tier. Temperatures on Wednesday are forecast to be fairly similar to this afternoon, but slightly cooler across portions of northern Georgia due to increased cloud cover.
Latest water vapor imagery shows a trough over the Mid and Upper Mississippi Valleys, with ridging over the western CONUS and anchored over the southeast. With decent radiational cooling once again tonight, lows will fall into the lower 70s by daybreak.
Return flow around the high will set up a southeast wind flow across the west. Forecast highlights in the short term period will be isolated showers/thunder this afternoon central and east, followed by warmer temperatures and more humid conditions for Wednesday. Currently, S/WV mid level trough moving east across northern Minnesota with northwest flow aloft across North Dakota along with a subtle embedded wave working its way across the state. Strengthening southerly flow will bring into the region warmer air and increasing sfc dewpoint temperatures.
1059 PM EDT Tue Jul 21 2020 The upper ridge will continue to dominate the weather early this week before weakening later in the week as an upper trough moves into the Ohio Valley and Mid Atlantic region.
/issued 243 PM CDT Tue Jul 21 2020/ Skies are partly cloudy across the Mid-South this afternoon with temperatures generally in the low to mid 90s. Temperatures will remain seasonal on Wednesday with highs in the low to mid 90s.
1017 PM EDT Tue Jul 21 2020 Hot, subtropical high pressure will remain over NC through Thu before amplifying west across the MS River Valley through the weekend. The upper-level ridge will linger to our east on Wednesday, creating another dangerously hot day across the region. High temperatures are expected to be a degree or two lower compared to Tuesday, however the high dewpoints will keep heat indices in the low to mid 100s for most of the afternoon.
917 PM EDT Tue Jul 21 2020 High pressure will build over the area overnight.
Maxes in the NW could be a notch cooler with all the cloud cover there.
Main story for today will be the potential for afternoon/evening convection in the higher elevations across portions of central and northern California. Upper level low centered off the northern California coast will push inland over the next 24-48 hours. This upper low along with moisture in the mid/upper levels will provided a renewed opportunity for showers and isolated thunderstorms for the mountains on Wednesday. Trough will sag over the West Coast into the second half of the week with highs near or even slightly below normal.
Arthur Ridge building over the area is producing sunny skies across the northern Rockies this afternoon. 700mb temperatures climb above 15c which is well above the threshold that caps off convection over the lower elevations. Given the increased atmospheric moisture, can't rule out an isolated thunderstorm over the mountains, but these should dissipate pretty quickly once they come off the higher terrain.
722 PM EDT Tue Jul 21 2020 Aviation Low pressure will track through the Great Lakes tonight with showers and thunderstorms through early Wednesday. Then high pressure builds in with generally fair weather through the end of the week.
652 PM CDT Tue Jul 21 2020 VFR conditions will continue through much of the evening and at least a portion of the overnight hours, although sct convection over portions of the Lower Toledo Bend Country into NE TX and Scntrl AR may result in brief MVFR cigs with reduced vsbys and wind gusts to 30kts, before diminishing by mid-evening.
A cold front is moving towards the CWA, though the primary forcing for storms and rain continues to be from MCV features. That is south of our area, however, the MVC moving east northeast ahead of the cold front is moving directly through the center of our area, and as temperatures reached 80 degrees, we've seen new storms fire up within the bands of light rain. The cold front should arrive with that timing as well, and with it, ending the rain threat. Most rains will fall with the MCV, not the cold front this afternoon and evening. A dry Wednesday is forecast through early afternoon, with highs in the lower to mid 80s, and somewhat lower humidity levels. A building ridge across the High Plains will result in northwesterly flow developing across the Upper Midwest to start the period.
A similar situation will again present itself on Wednesday, with deep moisture in place, especially south of I-4, and enough low and upper level support to make it reasonable to assume the coverage of showers and storms will be on the high side once we get to midday and beyond.
Expect VFR conditions to prevail across the Rio Grande Valley the rest of tonight through early Wednesday morning as a 500mb low/trough across east Texas and a 500mb ridge across the western Gulf of Mexico continues to provide subsidence across deep South Texas. NHC has a 30% chance of this wave developing into a tropical cyclone over the next 48 hours as it moves into the central and eventually western Gulf.
810 PM EDT Tue Jul 21 2020 Weak ridging aloft is expected to continue through the forecast period. Wednesday will bring a similar story as today with weak ridging aloft and slightly higher pops across the northern tier. Temperatures on Wednesday are forecast to be fairly similar to this afternoon, but slightly cooler across portions of northern Georgia due to increased cloud cover.
There has been a fair amount of low level instability on the backside of the upper low that is currently over northern MN. Some funnel activity will continue to be possible through sunset, but think the higher probabilities are further east at this point. Showers will dissipate quickly after sunset, leaving decreasing clouds and winds starting to become southeasterly as a trough of low pressure develops to our west. The trough will continue to deepen into tomorrow and tomorrow night, and winds at least over eastern ND will pick up into the 15 to 25 mph range.
812 PM EDT Tue Jul 21 2020 The upper ridge will continue to dominate the weather early this week before weakening later in the week as an upper trough moves into the Ohio Valley and Mid Atlantic region.
335 PM MDT Tue Jul 21 2020 Temperatures trend warmer through tomorrow.
949 PM EDT Tue Jul 21 2020 High pressure will persist through the weekend. Another quiet, rainfree night is in store, with temperatures in the low to mid 70s inland and high 70s/low 80s along the coast.
321 AM CDT Wed Jul 22 2020 High pressure currently sits over the eastern part of the CWA and Minnesota, with low pressure over central Montana/Wyoming. Will see a decent pressure gradient set up between the high to the east and the low to the west, with increased southerly flow ushering warm and humid air into the region tonight and Thursday. As the low and its associated front approach the western part of the state Thursday afternoon, may see a few showers or thunderstorms develop over the western half of the CWA.
321 AM EDT Wed Jul 22 2020 Low pressure moving out of the Great Lakes will bring showers and thunderstorms to our area through Thursday.
206 AM EDT Wed Jul 22 2020 Aviation Low pressure will track through the Great Lakes tonight with showers and thunderstorms through early Wednesday. Then high pressure builds in with generally fair weather through the end of the week.
On our marine district, winds are east to southeast between 15 and 20 knots with the higher winds on the western coastal waters.
Return flow will begin to develop across our west by afternoon as the high slowly departs.
231 AM CDT Wed Jul 22 2020 An upper level low across northern California will continue to push a 591 dam high, located nearly overhead, slowly toward the east. During this time, the CA low will continue to slowly dig into the San Joaquin Valley as it waits to phase with a trough edging down the western coast of BC. An upper-level anticyclone, now centered over the lower Mississippi River Valley, is expected to drift westward towards the weekend and therefore shunting the axis of monsoonal moisture further west.
The rain has done wonders to the temperature and kept the daytime highs in the lower to mid 80s.
155 AM EDT Wed Jul 22 2020 The upper ridge will continue to dominate the weather early this week before weakening later in the week as an upper trough moves into the Ohio Valley and Mid Atlantic region. An upper trough over the Great Lakes region will shift eastward Wednesday into Thursday while passing north of the forecast area.
232 AM MDT Wed Jul 22 2020 08z surface analysis had lee trough from central MT into eastern CO and weak high over the upper Midwest.
126 AM EDT Wed Jul 22 2020 High pressure will persist through the weekend. In general, afternoon highs will range in the low/mid 90s (warmest across inland Georgia).
Upper-ridge to strengthen across the region on Thursday with afternoon high temperatures forecast to climb into the low to mid 90s. Highs most days will still be in the low-90s, but that's a little better than the mid-90s previously being forecast.
Low pressure is centered over Eastern Lake Superior early this morning. with an associated cold front stretching from the low thru Iowa to along the Nebraska/Kansas border. High temps this afternoon will range from the lower 70s across our northern CWA to the lower 80s near Saginaw Bay. Pattern synopsis/forecast: Nearly zonal flow continues into Thursday, but begins to become a bit more progressive with some upper level troughing. Said high pressure will also provide light winds and a bit of warming temperatures with a light southerly flow advecting temperatures northward. Upper-level ridging continues across the Great Lakes/Upper Mississippi Valley right on through the upcoming weekend.
Sct debris clouds remain spread about the region this morning from previous convection, mainly in the low/mid levels, which should help prevent fog at the terminals this morning. CDG Chattanooga Airport, TN 93 73 93 73 92 / 60 20 60 20 50 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 91 73 92 72 91 / 60 30 70 30 50 Oak Ridge, TN 91 72 92 72 91 / 60 30 70 30 50 Tri Cities Airport, TN 89 69 87 68 87 / 60 40 70 40 50.
Daytime highs look to be in the 90s for much of the area once again under high pressure.
Isold-sct convection will again be the primary concern Wed PM as shown by some of the high res guidance.
The western extension of the Bermuda ridge, surface an aloft, will keep a moist easterly flow across our region today. Highs will be in the lower to mid 90s with lows in the lower to mid 70s.
329 AM CDT Wed Jul 22 2020 Another warm day is in store for the region as some effects from the upper ridge linger across the region. There will be some convection across the area today, with the higher amounts being in the north and south. Temperatures today will once again reach into the lower to middle 90s.
High temperatures will top out in the low to mid 80s.
333 AM CDT Wed Jul 22 2020 08Z water vapor imagery shows broad ridging over much of the southern CONUS, with the exception of a weak trough near the CA coast.
Much of the area will reside between a westward moving tropical wave to our south and a large upper level ridge to our north through the duration of the short term.
Slightly cooler afternoon temps over the next day or so due to unsettled weather related to the tropical wave. Otherwise, expect partly to mostly cloudy skies for much of the area, which will keep afternoon highs in the upper 80s/low 90s south of I-4, and the low/mid 90s northward.
High temperatures are expected to be a few degrees cooler area-wide today, and even slightly below normal in some spots. The mid-level theta-e ridge will shift wwd keeping precipitation chances mostly confined to the mountains, however the northern basin could still see a storm or two tomorrow afternoon.
Invariably, at some point every summer, the MCS parade and rainfall turn off, and the hot dry high pressure dome takes over. Afternoon temperatures will not exceed normal levels the next two days, holding in the lower 90s mostly, in response to moist soils, green vegetation, and a lack of downslope. Expect S/SE winds to become modestly breezy/gusty Wednesday afternoon, in response to a 998 mb leeside cyclone in NE Colorado.
An upper level ridge over the southeastern CONUS will expand west over the lower Mississippi Valley. The forecast is a bit tricky with the high temperatures today.
Strong moisture advection, peak heating, and a cyclonic curvature to the low level pressure fields (frictional influences) should allow for a continuation of periodic showers and storms. Gradually, with wind profiles becoming more unidirectional and speed shear becoming more limited as the low exits stage west, this potential will decrease through the short term. A low pressure system will progress into the western Gulf of Mexico as Atlantic subtropical ridging remains prominent to our northeast. Upstream troughing across the eastern states will shunt Atlantic subtropical ridging equatorward with its axis nearer to our area.
Skinny CAPE values around 500 J/kg and a freezing level around 13000 feet AGL suggest very brief heavy downpours and lightning would be the main threats.
A weak disturbance moving across the Ohio Valley will serve to weaken an area of high pressure over the Deep South as it pivots ever so slightly to the west.
As ridging sets up across mid-America during the latter portion of the week heading into the weekend, temperatures should slowly rise once again as mostly dry weather continues.
Lows tonight are expected to range from the lower to middle 50s across the north, with lower 60s across east-central Wisconsin. High pressure across the western Great Lakes region should keep things dry on Thursday as daytime highs into the middle to upper 70s.
Thursday should be mainly dry across the CWA as upper level ridging strengthens over the middle of the CONUS.
141 AM EDT Wed Jul 22 2020 High pressure will build over the area overnight. Low pressure will move across the area Wednesday night through Thursday night.
Return flow is strengthening across northeast WY in advance of deepening lee trof, but best instability remains to our south. Activity may be ongoing early Wednesday morning in south-central SD, but larger scale subsidence behind departing wave and short wave ridge moving in should keep convection fairly limited the rest of the day Wednesday. Much warmer temps expected with highs into the 90s over northeast WY and far western SD. Strong negatively tilted short wave trof will eject through the Northern Plains on Thursday and will provide our next good chance for convection.
Expecting a corridor of scattered TSRA to develop after 22/12Z which has the highest probability of affecting west and central terminals. The FA rmns on the WRN periphery of an upper lvl ridge that is centered over the SERN U.
An upper low near the northern California coast will move slowly inland. Meanwhile, an upper trough will move into the Pacific Northwest. Most of the convection is expected over the higher terrain. A weak cold front will move into northeast Oregon on Thursday, which will push the moisture out of Burns and Baker City during the afternoon and evening. Temperatures will trend cooler each day, from slightly above normal on Wednesday to near normal on Thursday.
We also increased winds across the southwest late tonight where we expect a low level jet to impact the surface winds over the higher elevations. Return flow around the high will set up a southeast wind flow across the west. Forecast highlights in the short term period will be isolated showers/thunder this afternoon central and east, followed by warmer temperatures and more humid conditions for Wednesday. Currently, S/WV mid level trough moving east across northern Minnesota with northwest flow aloft across North Dakota along with a subtle embedded wave working its way across the state. Strengthening southerly flow will bring into the region warmer air and increasing sfc dewpoint temperatures. The aforementioned S/WV lifting out of the southwest CONUS, will be lifting north/northeast across the High Plains of eastern Wyoming and Montana Thursday/Thu evening.
Maxes in the NW could be a notch cooler with all the cloud cover there. Expecting some lower clouds and fog to develop overnight from the Laurels to the Lower Susq where it rained quite a bit. AFter this, a drier pattern appears likely into the weekend under building high pressure surface and aloft. Pattern favors weak ridging across the mountains, and a lee trough to the east. A deck of lower clouds is also expected over the Allegheny ridges.
/Tonight/ A narrow band of convection continues to develop and shift N from the Lower Sabine Valley of SE TX/SW LA N across the Toledo Bend Country, near the remnants of a weak vorticity lobe along a N-S shear axis extending along the TX/LA line W of the center of upper ridging anchored over the SE CONUS. Did make some minor adjustments to min temps as well, with below normal temps again expected Wednesday given the cloud cover/sct convection before the ridging aloft begins to build back in by Thursday, resulting in a return to the heat.
215 AM MDT Wed Jul 22 2020 A sunny, hot and dry day for today with ridging overhead. With more clouds and scattered precipitation Thursday, temperatures will be slightly lower, yet still hot in the lower to middle 90s.
302 AM CDT Wed Jul 22 2020 Latest 500mb analysis reveals weak upper ridge in place over the Panhandles. This obliquely upslope surface wind orientation should keep temperatures from overachieving this afternoon, with highs in the low to mid 90s expected, around average for the latter part of July. With the weak upper ridge largely remaining in place through Wednesday night, do not foresee any source of cooling for the mid levels that would be needed to improve instability parameters. For Thursday, upper ridge builds eastward with the Panhandles under the western edge of this feature. Continued moist advection coupled with the slight eastward shift in the ridge suggests there will be a better chance for showers and thunderstorms to develop.
137 AM EDT Wed Jul 22 2020 Hot, subtropical high pressure will remain over NC through Thu before amplifying west across the MS River Valley through the weekend. The upper-level ridge will linger to our east on Wednesday, creating another dangerously hot day across the region.
Further to the northwest, a cold front is located near a KMCI>>KDVN line and moving southeast. This front should stall out just south of the CWA by late this evening with an area of high pressure building into the northern portions of Missouri and Illinois. Humidity values look to remain a bit on the high side due to dewpoints mostly in the low 70s, so it will still feel several degrees warmer than the actual air temperature.
The cloud cover will keep surface temperatures cooler, making reaching the day's convective temperature difficult. Will stick with the higher PoPs that I inherited on Thursday, but these may need to be lowered in future forecasts.
AFter this, a drier pattern appears likely into the weekend under building high pressure surface and aloft. Pattern favors weak ridging across the mountains, and a lee trough to the east. Portions of southeast Pa, including KMDT/KLNS will be susceptible to low vsbys around dawn, while KJST is likely to escape significant vis reductions due to its ridgetop location. NAMNest and LAMP guidance indicate patchy valley fog should lift between 12Z-14Z, then the focus will shift to developing showers and thunderstorms forming in advance of a cold front over the Grt Lks.
Lows/surface dewpoints will continue to average in the lower to mid 70s, although dewpoints may trend slightly higher/mid 70s by Thursday. An upper level high will remain centered from the southern Plains into the Southeast through much of the period. Even with the high in place, enough heat and humidity will be in place to allow for the development of mainly afternoon thunderstorms each day.
AFter this, a drier pattern appears likely into the weekend under building high pressure surface and aloft. Pattern favors weak ridging across the mountains, and a lee trough to the east. A deck of lower clouds is also expected over the Allegheny ridges.
The surface cold front has made its way down into Kansas, but is a bit difficult to discern and has been disrupted by thunderstorm outflow. Severe chances look low as the best support remains near the low-level jet axis to the west. After a lull Wednesday morning, activity could pick up again along the returning warm front by late Wednesday afternoon. More storms could erupt as the front returns north as a warm front and severe parameters indicate that we could get some severe weather by late afternoon/evening Wednesday as another perturbation moves by. Although the subtropical high builds more toward the weekend and gives us warmer and more humid weather, we will be largely dry.
Northwest flow is in place this morning with a trend towards ridging tonight into Wednesday. Temperatures will be a bit warmer as a result of the WAA and consensus favors low to mid 80s for highs (near seasonal averages).
Today Through Thursday Night Mesoanalysis shows mid-level troughing stretching from the Great Lakes through MO this morning. Large-scale ridging remains in place across the western Atlantic with tropospheric flow out of the south across AR. Coverage is also expected to increase as additional mid-level energy translates SSW to NNE and is absorbed into the northern mean trough. The highest coverage will reside across the northern half of the state with more isolated convection elsewhere, so anticipating a bump in temps across the southern half of AR tomorrow.
219 AM MDT Wed Jul 22 2020 Confidence in storm activity lasting into Nebraska is on the low side based on current data. Another round of thunderstorms is forecast to form along a lee trough in the afternoon and evening. An upper ridge will be in place over the High Plains at the start of the forecast period with high pressure centered over Kansas and Oklahoma.