Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
DURING THE DAY MONDAY, WE WILL SEE THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA UPPER LOW MOVE SLOWLY EAST, AND THIS WILL LEAD TO LOW LEVEL DEVELOPMENT OF A LEE TROUGH, BUT RIGHT UP AGAINST THE MOUNTAINS. ELKHART SHOULD TOUCH LOWER 40S BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON CLOSER TO THE LEE TROUGH AND SLIGHTLY WARMER LOWER TROPOSPHERE.
/ISSUED 417 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015/ THE NEXT TO LAST IN A SERIES OF STORMS SYSTEMS SLATED TO IMPACT THE TX AND OK PNHDLS IS A CLOSED LOW OFF THE SRN CA COAST.
TEMPERATURES HAVE SLOWLY RISEN TO NEAR OR JUST ABOVE FREEZING OVER MOST AREAS. AREAS OF FOG WILL LIKELY PERSIST TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
THERE WAS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NW ONTARIO AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 20S. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. THE TROUGH AND COOL WNW FLOW WILL LIKELY BRING A PERIOD SCT/BKN CLOUD COVER AND SCATTERED SNOW FLURRIES THROUGH THE NORTHLAND. THERE WILL BE INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AS LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. SUNNY DAYS ARE RESULTING IN WARMER THAN GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES DUE TO THE THE ALBEDO EFFECT FROM DARK BODY PINE TREES. INCREASED THE HIGHS OVER MOST GUIDANCE AND THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
TEMPS WILL HOVER AT OR JUST ABOVE FREEZING. GENERALLY BELIEVE VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR VFR OVER NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED TO HIGHLIGHT AREAS THAT COULD SEE VERY LIGHT FREEZING PRECIP. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION ONE MAY BE NEEDED LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA WHERE FREEZING DRIZZLE OR VERY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP. ADDITIONAL IMPACTS FROM ANY LIGHT PRECIP IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO BE SHORT IN DURATION AND NOT EXPECTED TO ADD MUCH TO REFREEZING ISSUE. ALL SHORT TERM GUIDANCE NOT VERY AGGRESSIVE WITH ANY DENSE FOG/FREEZING FOG ISSUES BUT WE WILL GO AHEAD AND MENTION FOG IN THE FORECAST. TURN OVER TO NON-FREEZING/FROZEN PRECIP LATE TOMORROW MORNING FOR A WHILE.
POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE MID SOUTH LATE TONIGHT AND YET ANOTHER ROUND OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION WHICH COULD BE SIGNIFICANT ARE THE PRIMARY CONCERNS IN THIS AFTERNOON/S FORECAST. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE MID SOUTH WHERE MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE LIMITED. A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND PUSH NORTH ACROSS THE MID SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES OCCURRING DURING THE EVENING AND GRADUALLY RISING THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT.
AT 02Z, THE COLD FRONT WAS SITUATED BETWEEN CLARKSVILLE AND NASHVILLE TN, AND WAS PASSING THRU SW TN AND NWRN MS. AREAS OF -RA/DZ WILL PERSIST DURING THIS TIME AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND COLD FRONT TRACK THRU THE REGION TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. BEFORE BETTER ISENTROPIC LIFT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE TENNESSEE RIVER AFTER DAYBREAK BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD FRONT MOVING INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA. THIS COLD FRONT WILL ADVECT MUCH DRIER AND COOLER AIR INTO NORTHERN ALABAMA ON MONDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE DROPPING SOUTH ALONGT HE EASTERN SEABOARD HAS PUSHED A BOUNDARY BACK SOUTH INTO CENTRAL FL.
THE COASTAL TROUGH/FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE OFFSHORE WATERS TONIGHT.
By the time the cold front passes Sunday morning, the Clearwater and Bitterroot mountains will have received over an inch of rain in many areas. The cold front is expected to pass sometime late Sunday morning, or early in the afternoon east and south of Missoula. Uncleared roads may be very difficult to travel on with dense slush freezing solid again overnight Sunday night as temperatures drop into the 20s with snow showers. It will be very windy with frequent gusts over 40 mph in the higher terrain, but confidence is low how well this will translate to the lower elevations.
530 AM EST SAT JAN 17 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TODAY.
649 AM EST SAT JAN 17 2015 HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO EAST INTO THE REGION TODAY BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE TONIGHT. PRECIPITATION BEGINS TO SPREAD INTO NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZES AND MOVES NORTH ALONG THE ATLANTIC COASTLINE.
WAVE SIGNATURE ON RADAR AS HAS LIT UP AT THE BASE OF THE FOOTHILLS WHILE OBSERVATIONS HAVE SHOWING WINDS INCREASING IN THE 60-70 MPH RANGE IN THE LOWER FOOTHILLS. UPPER TROUGH PASSED IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. AND WITH THE WIND PROVIDING MIXING IT MAY BE WARMER IN SOME AREAS THAN IT WAS YESTERDAY. WHILE THE WARMER AREAS LIKE DENVER WILL STILL BE 5-10 DEGREES COOLER. MEANWHILE THE ECMWF HAS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WITH BETTER MOISTURE. IN ADDITION IT HAS ANOTHER SURGE OF COOLER AIR MOVING INTO NERN CO WHICH LEADS TO SOME UPSLOPE FLOW.
531 AM CST SAT JAN 17 2015 FOR 12Z TAFS /ISSUED 336 AM CST SAT JAN 17 2015/ A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS CURRENTLY MOVING TO THE EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF OF THE ATLANTIC COAST. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD PASS THROUGH THE AREA BY DAYBREAK ON SUNDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THIS TROUGH. WITH HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE GULF COAST. THE NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE WEAK COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY SHIFT TO THE SOUTH BY SUNDAY NIGHT.
633 AM EST SAT JAN 17 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TODAY.
THE LAST IN THE SERIES OF THESE SHORT WAVES WILL USHER A FAIRLY DRY COLD FRONT THROUGH DEEP SOUTH TX SUN MORNING RESULTING IN A QUICK SHOT OF SOME COOLER AND DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION LOWERING TEMPS A BIT. FOR MINS TONIGHT WILL GO WITH A BLEND OF THE SLIGHTLY WARMER MAV AND ECMWF NUMBERS. THIS WILL LIKELY BE A PROBLEM ONCE AGAIN TOMORROW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
400 AM PST SAT JAN 17 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE A CHALLENGE WITH THE LOW STRATUS MAKING A RETURN TONIGHT AND INHIBITING DENSE FOG FORMATION.
MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH HIGHS WARMING INTO THE LOW 60S. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA THIS EVENING AND MOVE QUICKLY EAST OF THE AREA BY SUNDAY MORNING.
520 AM EST SAT JAN 17 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TODAY.
434 AM CST SAT JAN 17 2015 COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH SOUTHWEST KANSAS AND THE CENTRAL OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE RIGHT NOW AND WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TODAY.
1019 AM EST SAT JAN 17 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TODAY THEN MOVE TO THE EAST TONIGHT.
A COLD FRONT WL MOVE THROUGH SOUTH TX DURING THE LATE EVENING TO EARLY MORNING HOURS ON SUNDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT TNT WL LOWER HIGHS ON SUNDAY CLOSER TO NORMAL MID JANUARY VALUES.
533 AM EST SAT JAN 17 2015 HIGH PRESSURE AND WARMER SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT CROSSES ON SUNDAY WITH UPSLOPE SUNDAY NIGHT.
WEAK UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT CONTINUES TO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT RETURNS ON BOWMAN RADAR IN OUR EASTERN ZONES. THE TROUGH AXIS SHOULD BE THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA BY THE VALID PERIOD OF THIS FORECAST PACKAGE /5 AM/ SO I HAVE ZERO POPS FOR TODAY.
12Z JAX RAOB REPORTED WARM AND MOIST AIR ADVECTION IN THE LOW/MID LEVELS AS WINDS HAVE VEERED ONSHORE. OPEN CELLULAR STRATOCUMULUS WERE EDGING CLOSER TOWARD THE ST JOHNS AND FLAGLER COUNTY COASTS AS A COASTAL TROUGH STARTED TO FORM OFFSHORE THIS MORNING. CIRRUS CLOUDS STARTED TO INFILTRATE OVER OUR INLAND GA ZONES FROM THE WEST WITH THE APPROACH OF A SHORT WAVE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PRESSING EAST ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES. THERE REMAINS A LOW CHANCE OF COASTAL SHOWERS FORMING LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PHASES OVER LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN THE VICINITY OF THE COASTAL TROUGH AND SHORT RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE HRRR/ARW/NMM/SREF SUGGEST SOME LIGHT SHOWERS DEVELOPING INLAND THIS AFTN/EVENING AFTER 5 PM OVER INLAND AREAS.
AND SUNDAY FIRST ISSUE THIS MORNING DEALS WITH THE FREEZING DRIZZLE POTENTIAL. CLEARING LIKELY BRIEF BUT INDICATES SOME DRYING TO OVERCOME WITH ANY FREEZING DRIZZLE DEVELOPMENT. NOTED OBS OVER VILAS COUNTY LOWERED TO 5 MILES WHILE MQT RADAR MAY BE INDICATING AN INCREASE IN FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THE UP SLOPE AREAS OFF LAKE MICHIGAN DUE TO SOUTHEAST WINDS. MAIN SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND FRONTAL SYSTEM ARRIVE AND TRACK OVER LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT. TEMPS RISE ABOVE FREEZING OVER MOST LOCATIONS EXCEPT PERHAPS THE FAR NORTH. MOISTURE APPEARS TO SCOUR OUT FOR A DIMINISHED PCPN TREND TODAY BEFORE THE COLD FRONT SLIDES BACK IN THIS AFTERNOON AND RETURNS THE PCPN TYPE TO LIGHT SNOW FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS MAINLY NORTHERN WISCONSIN.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL PRODUCE SOME HIGH CLOUDS. ON SUNDAY A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH.
WENT WARMER SUN WITH GOOD INSOLATION AND DOWNSLOPE FLOW AS WINDS BACK DURING THE DAY. THERE IS MORE UNCERTAINTY IN HIGHS IN SOUTHEAST KS WHERE ECMWF IS A BIT COOLER. -HOWERTON FOCUS IS ON SE-MOVG PRE COLD FRONTAL SFC TROF AS SW-NW WSHFT WILL NO DOUBT ACCOMPANY THE TROF'S PASSAGE. SKIES TO CLEAR RAPIDLY LATE THIS MRNG AS SHARP MID-LVL TROF SPRINTS SE ACRS KS/MO BDR ~18Z.
WENT WARMER SUN WITH GOOD INSOLATION AND DOWNSLOPE FLOW AS WINDS BACK DURING THE DAY. MON: COOLER AIR BEHIND ANOTHER FRONT WILL DROP TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY. THERE IS MORE UNCERTAINTY IN HIGHS IN SOUTHEAST KS WHERE ECMWF IS A BIT COOLER. -HOWERTON FOCUS IS ON SE-MOVG PRE COLD FRONTAL SFC TROF AS SW-NW WSHFT WILL NO DOUBT ACCOMPANY THE TROF'S PASSAGE. SKIES TO CLEAR RAPIDLY LATE THIS MRNG AS SHARP MID-LVL TROF SPRINTS SE ACRS KS/MO BDR ~18Z.
620 AM EST SAT JAN 17 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TODAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY WITH GUSTY NORTH WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT. /ISSUED 434 AM CST SAT JAN 17 2015/ COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH SOUTHWEST KANSAS AND THE CENTRAL OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE RIGHT NOW AND WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TODAY.
542 AM CST Sat Jan 17 2015 It will be a mild and breezy day today as a cold front will approach the area late this afternoon. The upper level flow shifts again by mid week with a trough digging across the Midwest and Great Lakes Region.
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 57 37 55 33 / 0 10 10 0 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 56 39 51 32 / 0 20 20 0 OAK RIDGE, TN 56 37 51 32 / 0 20 20 0 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 54 32 46 29 / 0 10 40 10.
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO AND BE AT LEAST ACROSS CNTRL PORTIONS OF AREA BY 18/12Z. TODDY'S UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL FEATURE A WEAK RIDGE AXIS THIS MORNING OUT AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING WEAK BUT DRY WAVE. I AM EXPECTING TEMPS TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. POPS WILL BE ON THE LOW SIDE HOWEVER AS MANY AREAS MAY ONLY SEE A TRACE OF RAINFALL. THE PREVAILING NEW AIRMASS WILL BE RATHER MILD AND WILL TAKE THE FORM OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF COAST.
403 AM CST SAT JAN 17 2015 COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH THE PANHANDLES THIS MORNING BY 18Z TODAY.
A PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THE FCST AREA THIS MORNING. THE MODELS CONTINUE A ROBUST NORTHWEST WIND AT H850MB 20 TO 40 KT MOST OF THE NIGHT AND ANOTHER THERMAL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE PANHANDLE WITH H850MB TEMPERATURES RISING TOWARD 5C IN THE WEST.
COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY, BRINGING FAIR WEATHER, LIGHT WINDS, AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A SURFACE TROF WILL MOVE THROUGH NY/PA ON SUNDAY. JUDGING BY THE SOUNDINGS, MOST OF THE HIGH RH IS CONFINED TO THE COLD LOWER ATMOSPHERE, WITH A WARM LAYER ABOVE THE MOISTURE.
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL PRODUCE SOME HIGH CLOUDS. ON SUNDAY A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH.
422 AM MST SAT JAN 17 2015 UPPER TROUGH PASSED IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. AND WITH THE WIND PROVIDING MIXING IT MAY BE WARMER IN SOME AREAS THAN IT WAS YESTERDAY. WHILE THE WARMER AREAS LIKE DENVER WILL STILL BE 5-10 DEGREES COOLER. MEANWHILE THE ECMWF HAS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WITH BETTER MOISTURE. IN ADDITION IT HAS ANOTHER SURGE OF COOLER AIR MOVING INTO NERN CO WHICH LEADS TO SOME UPSLOPE FLOW.
FOLLOWED BY UNSETTLED WEATHER ON SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT PASSES ACROSS THE REGION. AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES TO THE EAST. WEAK WARM FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TODAY. ALTHOUGH THERE ARE STILL SOME SLIGHT TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH COLD FRONT ARRIVAL. WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EAST OF THE AREA BY SUNDAY EVENING.
600 AM CST SAT JAN 17 2015 HAVE REMOVED HEADLINE FOR FREEZING RAIN. AREA ROADWAYS ARE SLOWLY THAWING BUT MAY TAKE A FEW MORE HOURS WITH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES ABOVE FREEZING. THROUGH SUNDAY LIGHT RAIN NOW JUST EAST OF THE COTEAU SO FREEZING RAIN MENTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 09-10Z. HEADLINES EXTENDED THOUGH AS WARMER AIR IS SLOW TO PROGRESS INTO THE JAMES VALLEY. GOOD MIXING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY WITH A WEAK TROF MOVING THROUGH.
627 AM EST SAT JAN 17 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TODAY.
1002 AM EST SAT JAN 17 2015 HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO EAST INTO THE REGION TODAY BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE TONIGHT. PRECIPITATION BEGINS TO SPREAD INTO NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZES AND MOVES NORTH ALONG THE ATLANTIC COASTLINE.
928 AM EST SAT JAN 17 2015 HIGH PRESSURE AND WARMER SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT CROSSES ON SUNDAY WITH UPSLOPE SUNDAY NIGHT.
/ISSUED 338 AM CST Sat Jan 17 2015/ A cold front will move south through the region today, with somewhat breezy north winds in its wake for this afternoon (particularly across Permian Basin region).
650 AM EST SAT JAN 17 2015 A WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH OF THE REGION TODAY. PROVIDING INCREASED SOUTHERLY WINDS AND NOTICEABLY WARMER TEMPERATURES. HIGHS TODAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER 40S. 5 G/KG PER RUC/NAM PRECEDENT TO FROPA/TROF PASSAGE OF HIGH BELTED NRN UPR GRTLKS. SHARP MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE AREA TO START GRADUALLY EXITS EAST ON SUNDAY WITH ADEQUATE MOISTURE DEPTH/CYCLONIC FLOW/STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITHIN CAA REGIME TO SUPPORT A FEW SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH MID AFTN (ESPECIALLY NORTH GIVEN SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT).
LIGHT OFFSHORE WINDS THIS MORNING WILL TURN NORTHEAST AROUND 10 MPH AS HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE REGION MOVES INTO THE ATLANTIC. /ISSUED 337 AM EST SAT JAN 17 2015/ THE COLD FRONT WHICH SWEPT ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA YESTERDAY HAS USHERED IN A NOTICEABLE CHANGE IN AIRMASS WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 40S FROM NAPLES TO THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION TO THE 50S SOUTHEAST. THE TRAILING COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
650 AM EST SAT JAN 17 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. THIS WILL TRIGGER AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO FORM OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST. THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS AND CROSSES THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES SUNDAY MAY ACTUALLY BE WARMER GIVEN DOWN SLOPE FLOW.
FOLLOWED BY UNSETTLED WEATHER ON SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT PASSES ACROSS THE REGION. PRESSURE GRADIENTS STRENGTHEN UP TREMENDOUSLY THROUGH THE DAY AND ALMOST NIL MODEL SPREAD EXISTS IN PUSHING A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. NAM SOUNDINGS AND 2 METER TEMPERATURES REALLY FAIL TO MIX ANY WARMER AIR DOWN FROM PITTSBURGH NORTHWARD. ALTHOUGH THERE ARE STILL SOME SLIGHT TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH COLD FRONT ARRIVAL. WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EAST OF THE AREA BY SUNDAY EVENING.
506 AM EST SAT JAN 17 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TODAY THEN MOVE TO THE EAST TONIGHT.
AN EXPANSIVE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS ALIGNED FROM THE NORTHEAST STATES. WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO OUR NORTH SLIDING EASTWARD AND THE STATIONARY FRONT IN THE EASTERN STRAITS SLOWLY RETROGRADING WESTWARD THIS AFTERNOON.
315 AM PST SAT JAN 17 2015 ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE AND OFFSHORE BREEZES PERSIST.
524 AM CST Sat Jan 17 2015 A cold front will move through the region this afternoon and while this won't be a huge temperature altering event, it does make the forecast a little more challenging for several reasons.
FOR TEMPERATURES, 850-HPA TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN COMPARED TO YESTERDAY, PARTICULARLY FOR THE NORTHERN ZONES. TOOK IN THE HIGHER END OF THE TEMPERATURE SOLUTIONS WITH MID 50S FOR MUCH OF THE REGION.
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/LOWER MISS VALLEY WILL STRENGTHEN TODAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THERE MAY BE A NARROW BAND OF 5KFT CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT ITSELF BUT ANY CLOUDS OR CEILINGS AT THIS HEIGHT WOULD BE BRIEF. WEAK COLD FRONT MOVG INTO KS WILL BRING LITTLE CHANGE TO WX ASIDE FROM SOME UPPER LVL CLOUDS SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SOUTHERN STREAM JET TO BRING MOSTLY MID LVL MOISTURE BACK INTO AREA LATER IN WEEK AS ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH THRU AREA AND PHASES WITH JET.
554 AM EST SAT JAN 17 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TODAY THEN MOVE TO THE EAST TONIGHT.
/ISSUED 328 AM CST SAT JAN 17 2015/ FINALLY SOME WARMER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH.
A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE THROUGH NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY BRINGING A BAND OF MODERATE RAINFALL.
A COLD FRONT/WIND SHIFT IS EXPECTED LATE THIS EVENING WITH WINDS TURNING TO THE NORTH AND GUSTING UP TO 25 MPH. UPPER AIR ANALYSIS LAST EVENING SHOWED A BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY WITH A TROUGH OVER THE WEST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY.
522 AM CST WED FEB 11 2015 1047MB ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OF SLAVE LAKE WILL DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTH TODAY AND TONIGHT AND BE CENTERED NEAR FARGO ND BY 12Z THURSDAY MORNING. FOR HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S NORTH TO UPPER 40S SOUTH. THE SECOND SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR TONIGHT IS EXPECTED TO TRAP MOISTURE AROUND THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH AS THE ARCTIC FRONT BACKS INTO WRN NEB.
532 AM CST WED FEB 11 2015 POLAR COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH THE CWA THIS MORNING.
THE NWLY WINDS AND COLD ADVECTION WILL INCREASE TNT WHEN A STRONG UPPER TROUGH DIGS THROUGH THE AREA ON A NLY 100 KT JET STREAM. THE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL STEEPEN WITH SCT SNOW SHOWERS PEAKING AROUND THE MIDDLE OF THE NIGHT. UPPER TROUGH AXIS STARTS OUT OVER LWR MI AND THEN SHIFTS TOWARDS THE ERN US THROUGHOUT THE DAY. LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH EASES SOMEWHAT AND WINDS DIMINISH WITH SLACKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT.
09Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A COLD FRONT FROM NORTHERN OHIO BACK THROUGH CENTRAL MISSOURI AND INTO KANSAS. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND RESULTING IN CLEAR SKIES.
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL ALSO DEVELOP AND LEAD TO VERY WARM TEMPERATURES.
SHORT TERM: (Through Late This Afternoon) Cold front as of 0800 UTC has entered far northwestern portions of Missouri. This results in highs today ranging from the low 30s across northeast Missouri and west-central Illinois to low 50s for portions of southeastern Missouri.
518 AM EST WED FEB 11 2015 A HUGE ATLANTIC GALE CENTER HAS EVOLVED IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC. AIR TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE MID 50S IN THE UPPER KEYS TO NEAR 60F IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE KEYS. DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES ARE DOWN IN THE LOWER 50S MOST AREAS. FOR TODAY -- WINDS SHOULD DROP OFF BIG TIME AS A WEAK RIDGE SETTLES OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA IN WAKE OF THE DEPARTING ATLANTIC STORM SYSTEM.
/ISSUED 305 AM EST WED FEB 11 2015/ A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SPINNING ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC IS PUSHING A FEW CLOUDS ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION WERE 5-10 DEGREES COOLER THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY. A MORE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL DEVELOP BY TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST. WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOW 70S. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN PUSH INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA DURING THE DAY.
A DRY COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING WILL BRING COLDER AIR TO THE REGION. GIVEN MOISTURE BEING CONDENSED NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
837 AM CST Wed Feb 11 2015 Update to begin the High Wind Warning in the Guadalupe Mountains earlier. A cold front continues to push south into west Texas this morning with gusty winds behind it delayed somewhat, except over southeast New Mexico where surface pressure rises are nearly 2 mb/hr. Considering the hefty surface pressure rises over southeast New Mexico, have decided to begin the High wind Warning in the Guadalupes at 11/15Z. Will go ahead and update the forecast to begin the High Wind Warning earlier.
945 AM EST WED FEB 11 2015 WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA TODAY WILL MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY FALL FROM MORNING HIGHS THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY AS COLD HIGH PRESSURE PROPAGATES INTO THE DAKOTAS. EXPECT A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY TO DEVELOP AS THE HIGH APPROACHES THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CAUGHT UP WITH THE ECMWF AND ARE NOW FORECASTING SNOW DEVELOPING AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THURSDAY.
As of 3 AM, a cold front was making steady progress southeast across eastern Kansas and northern Missouri. This cold front will quickly pass through the Missouri Ozarks this morning. A strong short wave trough will then dig southeast through the western Great lakes and towards the Ohio River Valley from late today into tonight.
A WEAK UPPER LOW MEANWHILE EXPECTED TO PINCH OFF ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES LATER TODAY WHILE DROPPING SOUTHWARD. RMCQUEEN DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL SET UP THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND BETWEEN WEST COAST RIDGING EXTENDING INTO THE YUKON/NORTHWEST TERRITORIES AND LOCKED IN CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS EASTERN NORTH AMERICA.
525 AM CST Wed Feb 11 2015 A cold front will continue to sweep through the region this morning, bringing with it a thick layer of stratus and gusty north northwest winds. Models have thus far poorly represented the amount of cloud cover moving down into the region today, so have trended toward the cooler side of guidance for max temperatures today, and expect little to no diurnal temperature rises due to cloud cover and cold air advection.
SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL LEAD TO SLIGHTLY COOLER SURFACE TO 85H THERMAL PROFILE TODAY. 00Z NAM GUIDANCE APPEARS TO BE TOO COOL AND WENT SLIGHTLY UNDER THE WARMER GFS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LOW FORMING JUST EAST OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. THIS UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AND BE OVER NORTHWEST MEXICO BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SATELLITE ALSO SHOWS STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIVING SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS SYSTEM WILL LEAD TO A DEEPER UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT AND LEAD TO ANOTHER PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT.
532 AM EST WED FEB 11 2015 THE PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TODAY WILL BE OFF THE COAST TONIGHT. AN APPROACHING DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THURSDAY.
337 AM PST Wed Feb 11 2015 Dry and warmer conditions return for the remainder of the week. Strong high pressure will result in dry and mild weather across the region through the remainder of the week. The ridge may weaken and shift east a bit over the weekend as a weather system passes to the north.
327 AM MST WED FEB 11 2015 Showers have diminished overnight as high pressure builds into the region. As the high pressure continues through Wednesday, strong stable layers and inversions will increase and keep periods of fog around for the valleys across the Northern Rockies throughout the week.
HOWEVER ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL BACKDOOR INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATE. RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST OF AREA BY FRI WITH LIGHT DOWNSLOPE FLOW. WITH TEMPERATURES LIKELY AT OR BELOW FREEZING OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. COULD SEE ENOUGH FREEZING RAIN TO CAUSE PROBLEMS. WHICH WOULD INCREASE CHANCES FOR FREEZING PRECIPITATION. THE BETTER CHANCES OF SIGNIFICANT FREEZING RAIN AT THIS POINT ARE SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 400. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP SOUTH LATER TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. AS DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER SOUTH IN WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT.
1007 AM EST WED FEB 11 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST THURSDAY WHILE A SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.
FLIGHT CONDITION SHOULD BE VFR UNTIL LATE TONIGHT WHEN MORE MVFR CEILINGS ARRIVE AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
QUICK UPDATE ALREADY THIS MORNING TO ADJUST FOR CURRENT AREAS OF STRATUS AND PATCHY FREEZING FOG IN THE UPPER SNAKE PLAIN AND HIGHLANDS.