Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1130 AM PDT TUE OCT 13 2015 After the passage of a weak weather disturbance expect increased sunshine with warmer and drier weather for the rest of the work week.
136 PM EDT TUE OCT 13 2015 COOLER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO THE REGION TODAY BEHIND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL BRING THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON.
157 PM EDT TUE OCT 13 2015 AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. DRIER HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD OVER THE AREA FROM THE WEST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
WILL TRANSITION INTO A QUIET WEATHER PATTERN AS A COLD FRONT EXITS THE AREA DURING THE TAF PERIOD. COOLER.
IT SHOULD STAY UP JUST ENOUGH TO KEEP EVERYBODY IN THE MID-40S TONIGHT AND WHILE TOMORROW WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER DURING THE DAY.
242 PM CDT TUE OCT 13 2015 Area of high pressure across the region has left the CWA dry and calm with readings peaking from the lower 70s east central to upper 70s north central Kansas. For Wednesday, the ridge axis remains anchored over the dry northwest flow aloft. Therefore the rangeland fire danger index will lower to the high category.
DEWPOINTS ARE CURRENTLY IN THE LOW 30S WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY BETWEEN 10 AND 15 PERCENT. EXPECT LOWER TO MID 50S IN MOST LOCATIONS WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER READINGS IN URBAN AREAS.
237 PM PDT TUE OCT 13 2015 An upper level ridge will begin to strengthen over the next several days bringing a return to warm and dry weather. The ridge is expected to shift east of the area by the weekend which will bring increased cloud cover, cooler temperatures, and a chance of rain. We do not expect these clouds to last long as the zonal or westerly flow seems to be buckling northward in advance of deep trough moving toward 150w.
651 PM EDT TUE OCT 13 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRES OVER THE PACIFIC NW WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGH THU. CHANCES FOR RAIN RETURN OVER THE WEEKEND AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRES PUSHES IN OFF THE PACIFIC. THE BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH PRES SEEN IN WATER VAPOR PICTURES ALONG THE WEST COAST TUE AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE RIDGE AXIS IS ALSO EXPECTED TO SHIFT SLOWLY INLAND. SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE WILL ALLOW FOR WARM DAYTIME TEMPS THROUGH FRI.
309 PM MDT TUE OCT 13 2015 UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN U.
310 PM CDT TUE OCT 13 2015 Upper level trof/low along the Quebec/Ontario province line will pull away from IL through tonight taking its low clouds in NE IL with it. Weak high pressure ridge of 1018 mb over the plains will settle into the MO valley on Wed morning. Temperatures should cool close to the dewpoints in the lower 40s for lows overnight. Stayed close to MET/MAV guidance lows in the lower 40s overnight across central IL with Galesburg the coolest at 39F and Lawrenceville the mildest at 44F.
320 PM MDT TUE OCT 13 2015 DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES THIS AFTN ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF BROAD UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN US. LEE TROUGHING OVER THE PLAINS IS RESULTING IN ENOUGH VARIABILITY IN SURFACE WINDS TO INHIBIT MIXING ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. WITH LOW-MID 30S POSSIBLE OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE PANHANDLE WITH LIGHTER WINDS. A STRONG/DRY COLD FRONT WILL BLAST SOUTH ACROSS THE CWA ON WED NIGHT/EARLY THU. RESULTING HIGH TEMPS SHOULD BE 12-15 DEG COOLER ON THU. WHILE THE COOLER TEMPERATURES SHOULD OFFER AT LEAST A LITTLE RELIEF IN THE FIRE WEATHER REALM. MANY AREAS WILL SEE LOW TEMPERATURES AROUND FREEZING. WHILE THAT COULD RESULT IN SLIGHTLY WARMER SURFACE TEMPERATURES.
142 PM EDT TUE OCT 13 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION TODAY INTO TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR MIDWEEK. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. CAN'T RULE OUT A FEW HUNDREDTHS AS FAR EAST AS THE BLUE RIDGE. EARLY MORNING CLOUDS/PRECIP IS ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS SOUTH FROM AND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO CANADA. THE OVERNIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE PREFRONTAL TROUGH.
BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS.
BUT MUCH OF THE REGION REMAINS IN NORTHWEST/CYCLONIC FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES/SOUTHERN ONTARIO. WE REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF PROGRESSIVE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND CYCLONIC FLOW WHICH WILL KEEP THINGS ON THE COOLER SIDE. KMD 244 AM CDT HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGING PERSISTS ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THUR/FRI. WHICH WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A TROUGH AND POCKET OF MUCH COOLER AIR FOR THE GREAT LAKES HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.
154 PM EDT TUE OCT 13 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH LATE WEEK.
The troughing over the east and riding over the west will both become stronger by the end of the week.
133 PM EDT TUE OCT 13 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH TO THE EAST TODAY.
546 PM EDT TUE OCT 13 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. A SECOND COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS POSSIBLE.
TAIL END OF WEAKENING TROUGH ALOFT WILL BE DROPPING INTO THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE CAROLINAS WITH PRESSURE GRADIENT SUPPORTING NE WINDS AROUND 15 MPH WITH HIGHEST MOISTURE LINGERING ACROSS ST LUCIE/MARTIN AND OKEECHOBEE COUNTIES WHERE ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY MOVE ONSHORE AND PUSH INLAND. WEAKENS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IN PLACE LATE WEEK. HOWEVER ANOTHER STRONGER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EVENTUALLY BUILDS IN BEHIND THIS FRONT AS IT MOVES INTO THE AREA THIS WEEKEND. STRENGTHENING GRADIENT FROM REINFORCING HIGH PRESSURE WILL INCREASE LOW LEVEL NE FLOW OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA THROUGH THE PERIOD.
219 PM EDT TUE OCT 13 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IT WILL BE WARM JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK MAINLY IN THE LOWER 80S.
228 PM EDT TUE OCT 13 2015 LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING COOLER AIR WITH LOTS OF CLOUDS THROUGH TONIGHT. COOL DRY HIGH PRESSURE FOR WEDNESDAY.
1227 PM CDT TUE OCT 13 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS EXPECTED FOR THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY.
303 PM CDT TUE OCT 13 2015 Northwest flow aloft and high pressure at the surface will be the rule through the short term portion of the forecast.
COLD FRONT IS NOW NEAR THE INTERSTATE 85 CORRIDOR AND SHOULD EXIT THE FORECAST AREA BY THIS EVENING. THE RAIN HAS MOVED OUT OF CENTRAL ALABAMA AND THE COLD FRONT IS NOW NEAR INTERSTATE 85. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP EARLY THIS MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AHEAD OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT. A LOW LEVEL JET OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES NEARLY STEADY FOR MANY LOCATIONS OUT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. RAIN CHANCES WILL ABRUPTLY COME TO AN END FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE MORNING AS DRIER AND COOLER AIR FILTERS SOUTHWARD. THE CURRENT FORECAST OF MID 40S NORTH TO THE LOWER 50S SOUTH STILL LOOKS ON TRACK.
OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE LOW TO UPPER 30S FOR MOST AREAS. BUT TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER BECAUSE OF THE SUNNY SKIES. LEANED ON THE WARMER BIAS CORRECTED GFS/GFSMOS GUIDANCE. HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE 50S OVER THE ARROWHEAD TO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA.
301 PM CDT TUE OCT 13 2015 WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING THE NORTHEAST CONUS WITH A CLOSED LOW OFF OF THE CA COAST. A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM EASTERN SD DOWN INTO EASTERN NM WITH UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPS REMAINING IN PLACE. THIS WILL ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE PLAINS. WE WILL QUICKLY GET BACK IN TO A WARMING PATTERN SHORTLY AFTER THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. A SLOW MOVING UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS CA AND INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT BASIN BY SUN AFTERNOON AND FINALLY OUT INTO THE PLAINS FOR MON NIGHT INTO TUE. MEANWHILE A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SINK SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT SWITCHING THE WINDS AROUND TO THE NORTHEAST.
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE TO CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL US AT THE SURFACE.
313 PM EDT TUE OCT 13 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. A SECOND COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS POSSIBLE.
NOT EXPECTING TO SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF COOLER TEMPS IN THIS POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS.
High pressure remains in firm control over the region with some mid level clouds moving through the region.
1214 PM CDT TUE OCT 13 2015 UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO PROGRESS EAST ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS MORNING WITH EXPANSIVE STRATUS/STRATOCUMULUS IN PLACE ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH THE LOW EXITING TO THE EAST AND THE HIGH BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. THE LOW STRATUS SHOULD GRADUALLY CLEAR TODAY FROM WEST TO EAST. HAVE LOWERED HIGH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER DUE TO THE LOW CLOUDS TODAY. AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES TO THE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. A TROUGH AND COLD FRONT PUSH ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY LOOK TO BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE FORECAST AREA. MUCH COOLER AIR WILL MOVE IN.
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 531 PM EDT TUE OCT 13 2015 A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE REGION LATE TODAY IS PRODUCING SOME SHOWERS. THIS FRONT WILL MARK THE TRANSITION TO A COOLER AND MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TOMORROW-THU AS THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SLIDES EAST A BIT.
405 PM EDT TUE OCT 13 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING AND WILL CONTINUE OFFSHORE TONIGHT.
132 PM CDT TUE OCT 13 2015 ONGOING FORECAST BLENDED TO OBSERVED TRENDS THROUGH 18 UTC AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE STATE. A FAST MOVING TROUGH WILL SLIDE ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING BRINING LITTLE MORE THAN INCREASED CLOUD COVER.
OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE LOW TO UPPER 30S FOR MOST AREAS. BUT TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER BECAUSE OF THE SUNNY SKIES. LEANED ON THE WARMER BIAS CORRECTED GFS/GFSMOS GUIDANCE. HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE 50S OVER THE ARROWHEAD TO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA. LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS THE FIRST WAVE/THERMAL TROUGH DROPS INTO NORTH DAKOTA/BORDERLAND BY 12Z THURS.
222 PM CDT TUE OCT 13 2015 An upper level trough is over the eastern conus with a cut off low off the southern California coast.
159 PM CDT FRI OCT 23 2015 RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH WHAT APPEARS TO BE THE FINAL SHORT WAVE WITH THIS LARGE-SCALE TROUGH IS MOVING NROTHEAST INTO NORTH CENTRAL TX THIS AFTERNOON. AN ENHANCING FACTOR TO THE RAINFALL NEAR AND JUST SOUTH OF THESE AREAS WILL BE THE COLD FRONT WHICH HAS MOVED INTO NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON.
1128 AM MDT FRI OCT 23 2015 CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS TROF OVER THE DAKOTAS AND NEB. OTHER SHOWERS NEAR THE LOW ARE CLIPPING PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL SD. HIGHS WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 50S. WITH 40S OVER THE HIGHER BLACK HILLS. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA TODAY BRINGING GUSTY NW WINDS.
RIDGING ALOFT OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO KEEPS ACTIVITY FULLY DEPENDENT ON LOW-LEVELS. AS RIDGE NORTH OF THE STATE WEAKENS FURTHER LIGHTER ONSHORE FLOW CONDITIONS WL BE PRESENT. LOWS MID-UPPER 60S INTERIOR TO THE LOWER 70S SOUTH COAST. (FROM PREV DISC) LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GULF GETS KICKED NORTH INTO THE MID SECTION OF THE COUNTRY EARLY IN THE WEEK. AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL ONLY SLOWLY MOVE EAST ACROSS THE GULF DUE TO DEEP LAYER HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE EASTERN SEABOARD. TUE NIGHT INTO WED THE LOW LEVEL FLOW IS PROGGED TO TURN SOUTHEAST/SOUTH AHEAD OF THE SLOW MOVING FRONT.
448 PM EDT FRI OCT 23 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND BECOME CENTERED OVER THE REGION SATURDAY.
LOW PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM NW NEBRASKA DOWN INTO SE CO WITH RETURN FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS ALL OF THE PLAINS. THE BETTER MID LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH IS NOW PUSHING INTO MO WHICH IS ALSO WHERE THE BETTER SHOWER/STORM CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT. SOME SHOWERS MAY LINGER OVER FAR SE KS THIS EVENING BEFORE THE MID LEVEL TROUGH FINALLY SWINGS THROUGH. THIS TROUGH WILL BRING RAIN CHANCES BACK INTO THE FORECAST FOR TUE-WED. SOME COOLER AIR WILL FILTER-IN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AS THIS WAVE DEPARTS TO THE EAST. THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT A SHALLOW ISOLATED/DIURNAL STORM MAY DEVELOP ALONG AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT.
346 PM CDT FRI OCT 23 2015 A cold front will move south across the area tonight.
Further S, precip over AR shud move newd, impacting sern portions of the CWA, mainly late tonight as the upper trof approaches and ULJ intensifies over the area. Trended twd cooler temps across wrn portions of the CWA where the cdfnt will arrive sooner and allow temps to fall further despite cloud cover. Further E, continued trend twd warmer guidance. As the trof pulls ewd, the fnt shud continue to push swd, keeping the bulk of the precip S of the CWA. Cold front sweeps into the area Friday morning with a gradual wind shift to the northwest.
NORTHERN STREAM IS FINALLY LATCHING ON TO THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WHICH SAT OVER THE FORECAST AREA LAST NIGHT AND KICKING IT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. CURRENT WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS THE PACIFIC UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR THE WYOMING/NEBRASKA BORDER AT THIS HOUR. THE LOW HAS STALLED OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. WHICH HAS ALLOWED LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW TO CONTINUE OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND THE HIGH PLAINS EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SNOWY RANGE DID PRETTY GOOD WITH SNOWFALL. IF YOU GO BELOW 10000 FEET SNOW HAS HAD TROUBLE ACCUMULATING DUE TO THE WARMER TEMPERATURES. WARMEST OVER THE HIGH PLAINS.
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL RESULT IN LIGHT WINDS AT ALL TAF SITES.
309 PM MDT FRI OCT 23 2015 THE LOW THAT BROUGHT ALL THE RAIN AND SNOW YESTERDAY AND LAST NIGHT HAS SHIFTED TO THE PLAINS. THE CAUSE OF THE PRECIP AND CLOUDS TODAY IS A SECONDARY TROUGH THAT IS MOVING OVERHEAD. BY 9PM THE TROUGH WILL HAVE MOVED OFF TO THE FRONT RANGE WHERE MOST PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO FALL. THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS MAY SEE A BIT MORE SNOWFALL BUT ANY APPRECIABLE ACCUMULATION IS OVER. AREAS NEAR AND AROUND CRAIG AND MEEKER AS WELL AS GLENWOOD SPRINGS AND EAGLE WILL SEE TEMPS DROP BELOW FREEZING SO A FREEZE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THOSE AREAS THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. A FLAT RIDGE WILL DEVELOP TO OUR SOUTHWEST. A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY'S.
131 PM PDT FRI OCT 23 2015 FAIR AND WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY AND SATURDAY UNDER HIGHER PRESSURE ALOFT AND WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW AT THE SURFACE.
WINDS WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE AND AFTERNOON HIGHS 2 TO 4 DEGREES WARMER.
604 PM EDT FRI OCT 23 2015 HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER EASTERN CANADA THIS EVENING WILL QUICKLY GIVE WAY TO A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING IN FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT THE TONIGHT PERIOD WILL BE INFLUENCED BY A DEEP WARM SECTOR THAT WILL LIFT INTO SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN IN ADVANCE OF THE BROAD CYCLONIC UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SODAK AND NEBRASKA. THE THETA E RIDGE FORECASTED TO SLAM INTO THE CWA ON THE BACK OF A RESURGENT LOW LEVEL JET.
BROAD UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS TODAY BEFORE BEING CAPTURED BY THE WESTERLY AND TAKEN EASTWARD THIS WEEKEND. EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO HAVE ENDED BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE PUSHING IN BEHIND.
524 PM EDT FRI OCT 23 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
1030 AM PDT FRI OCT 23 2015 High pressure will slowly build over the Inland Northwest today and remain over the region through much of the weekend.
250 PM PDT FRI OCT 23 2015 High pressure will stretch across the Inland Northwest through the weekend with mild temperatures and occasional high cloudiness. A weak warm front will sweep through the region late Saturday with a few mountain showers possible, although most places will remain dry.
333 PM CDT FRI OCT 23 2015 THE RIDGE AXIS THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE AREA THE PAST FEW DAYS HAS BEGUN TO BREAK DOWN AND SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION TODAY. THIS HAS ALLOWED THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS TO BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY IN NATURE AND LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUD COVER. THESE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY STATIONARY AS THEY ARE STUCK BETWEEN A STRONG SYSTEM IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND THE RIDGE. WITH THIS SYSTEM SHIFTING EASTWARD AND THE RIDGE BREAKING DOWN WE COULD START TO SEE SOME OF THE SHOWERS TO OUR WEST BEGIN TO APPROACH NORTHWESTERN ALABAMA BY SATURDAY MORNING. THE ONLY CONCERN IS THAT WITH THE RIDGE STILL TO THE EAST WE COULD SEE DRY AIR ADVECTION IN THE MID LEVELS AS INDICATED ON THE LATEST NAM/GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS.
114 PM CDT FRI OCT 23 2015 THE COMBINATION OF THE UPPER LOW ACROSS WRN NEB AND A PACIFIC COLD FRONT MOVING EAST IN THE SAME AREA HAS UNEXPECTEDLY SPAWNED A COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. ALSO ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AS IT MOVES INTO THE NRN PLAINS. PACIFIC HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BE LOCATED ACROSS WRN NEB WITH CLEAR SKIES. DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THIS WEEKEND AND INTO THE COMING WORK WEEK AS UPPER RIDGING AMPLIFIES OVER THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST AND BUILDS EAST TOWARD THE HIGH PLAINS. TO SLIGHTLY NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS IN ADVANCE OF THE UPPER RIDGING.
THIS WILL BRING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA AND LEAD TO A DIMINISHING TREND TO ANY LINGERING SHRA FOR THE AFTERNOON.
157 PM EDT FRI OCT 23 2015 HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED JUTS NORTH OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL PUSH A DRY.
304 PM CDT FRI OCT 23 2015 CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES LOW OVER EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA WITH BROAD RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES MODEST RIDGING OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS WITH TROUGH CUTTING THROUGH THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS SLIDING INTO THE MIDWEST. TROUGH WILL CONTINUE ITS EASTWARD PROGRESSION WITH PRECIPITATION CONTINUING TO DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST.
1253 PM CDT FRI OCT 23 2015 MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM NORTH OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND INTERACT WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLES WILL CONTINUE SOUTHWARD AND SHIFT WINDS NORTHERLY ACROSS THE PANHANDLES WITH A FEW GUSTS NEAR 20KTS THIS AFTERNOON. COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FORECAST AREA TODAY.
114 PM MDT FRI OCT 23 2015 MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW BELOW FREEZING TEMPS OVERNIGHT FOR THE FREEZE WATCH AREAS. A POST FRONTAL TROUGH IS MOVING OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON CAUSING CLOUDS AND SOME SNOWSHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS. THE MOISTURE WRAPPED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY. PRIMARILY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SUPPRESSED BUT WILL BE WARMER THAN YESTERDAY/S FOR MOST LOCATIONS WITHIN THE FORECAST AREA. DRYING BEGINS IN EARNEST TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE WEST.
353 PM EDT FRI OCT 23 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL PROVIDE A MAINLY CLEAR AND COOL NIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE SATURDAY BRINGING THICKENING CLOUDS.
1216 PM CDT FRI OCT 23 2015 MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE CENTERED AROUND THE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EXPECTED TODAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST. DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS MORNING WILL LIFT TO THE NE TODAY AND PHASE WITH A MUCH BROADER LONG-WAVE TROUGH OVER NRN CANADA. PLENTY OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE COMBINED WITH LARGE-SCALE LIFT FROM THE UPPER WAVE AND THE PASSAGE OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL ALL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT AND SUSTAINABILITY OF RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE NEXT 18 TO 24 HOURS. BUT DIMINISH IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE THROUGH THE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN. INTO THE LOWER 40S.
(Saturday night through Friday) Much lighter rainfall amounts expected Saturday night behind the cold front.
212 PM EDT FRI OCT 23 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND BECOME CENTERED OVER THE REGION SATURDAY.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. WITH THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST AND MAINTAINING AN EASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE WIND FIELDS. AS A MIDLEVEL TROUGH CROSSES THE NORTHERN PLAINS. A WEAK IMPULSE ROTATING THROUGH THE DEAMPLIFYING RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT FOR A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST CENTRAL ALABAMA.
628 PM EDT FRI OCT 23 2015 AVIATION A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AND BRING RAIN SHOWERS AND PERHAPS ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
316 PM MDT FRI OCT 23 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOWER PRESSURE IS OVER THE GREAT PLAINS STATES. LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S ON THE PLAINS AND PALMER DIVIDE OVERNIGHT DUE TO LIGHT WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES. A FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES TO NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN COLORADO ON SATURDAY.
255 PM EDT FRI OCT 23 2015 THIS AFTERNOON, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND COOLER TEMPERATURES.
UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPRESS PRECIPITATION SATURDAY NIGHT WITH COMFORTABLE OVERNIGHT TEMPS AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE WARMER TONIGHT AS CLOUD COVER STARTS TO INCREASE TOWARD EARLY MORNING. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S FOR TOMORROW. LOW AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE TRIES TO PUT A DENT IN THE NICE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U. THE SYSTEM WON'T HAVE MUCH SUCCESS DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS LATER IN THE WEEKEND WITH THE STUBBORN RIDGE.
409 PM EDT FRI OCT 23 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND BECOME CENTERED OVER THE REGION SATURDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES EAST TOMORROW AS AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM APPROACHES.
1259 PM CDT FRI OCT 23 2015 AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SITUATED ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD CONTINUES TO MAKE ITS WAY NORTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO FINALLY CLEAR THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW EXITS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABLE TO CLIMB INTO THE MID 60S IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND POSSIBLY THE LOW 70S ACROSS SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE CWA. SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
Further S, precip over AR shud move newd, impacting sern portions of the CWA, mainly late tonight as the upper trof approaches and ULJ intensifies over the area. Trended twd cooler temps across wrn portions of the CWA where the cdfnt will arrive sooner and allow temps to fall further despite cloud cover. Further E, continued trend twd warmer guidance.
1242 PM CDT FRI OCT 23 2015 UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESENTLY SITUATED OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTH DAKOTA AND NEBRASKA VERY EARLY THIS MORNING. THOUGH A LITTLE WARMER THROUGH THE LOWER MO RIVER VALLEY WHERE HIGHS WILL REACH THE MID 60S. WITH COOLEST READINGS IN THE EAST WHERE THE RIDGE AXIS LINGERS LONGEST.
614 PM EDT FRI OCT 23 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL PROVIDE A MAINLY CLEAR AND COOL NIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE SATURDAY BRINGING THICKENING CLOUDS.
A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA THROUGH SATURDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN LATE THIS WEEKEND.
337 PM EDT FRI OCT 23 2015 LOW PRESSURE LIFTING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL CROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY. ROBUST SW DISTURBANCE OVR THE NE SANDHILLS WILL LIFT NEWD THROUGH MN OVERNIGHT AND ACRS WI ON SAT WHILE ATTENDANT SFC CYCLONE AND CDFNT SWEEP EWD THIS PD. LEADING EDGE OF WKLY FORCED HIGH BASED SHRA ACRS IL GENERALLY YIELDING LTL MORE THAN A SPRINKLE AS LAST VESTIGE OF OLD POLAR RIDGE RIDGE ERODES. WHILE ONE SHOULD NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLD SHRA IN THIS TIME FRAME IN LIGHT OF ROBUST LL THETA-E RIDGE IN PLACE. WARMER BLEND OF TEMPS ANTICIPATED YET PRIOR GRIDS CLOSE W/JUST A FEW TWEAKS MADE. THERMAL PROFILES BEHIND THE FRONT ARE SLIGHTLY COOLER BUT CERTAINLY NOTHING UNUSUAL FOR LATE OCTOBER.
213 PM EDT FRI OCT 23 2015 A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TONIGHT.
127 PM EDT FRI OCT 23 2015 THIS AFTERNOON, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND COOLER TEMPERATURES.