Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
/ISSUED 335 AM EDT WED APR 22 2015/ SHORT TERM BEGINS WITH HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING IN CONTROL OF THE LOCAL WEATHER WITH ITS CENTER ALONG THE GULF COAST AND LIGHT SOUTHWEST RETURN FLOW JUST OFF THE SURFACE.
645 AM CDT WED APR 22 2015 LARGE UPPER LOW OVER ONTARIO WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PULL AWAY TODAY WITH SURFACE RIDGING APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD BELOW NORMAL WITH THERMAL TROF STARTING OUT ACROSS THE STATE THIS MORNING THEN SHIFTING EASTWARD DURING THE DAY. TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WE WILL HAVE LITTLE CONCERN AS IOWA WILL BE IN BETWEEN RIDGING TO THE WEST AND THE DEPARTING LARGE LOW OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SAG SOUTH THIS MORNING. MIN RH VALUES WILL ALSO BE DROPPING INTO THE LOW 20S. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. SO AGAIN TRENDING TOWARD THE COOLER GUIDANCE FOR LOW TEMPERATURES.
611 AM CDT WED APR 22 2015 LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALONG WITH EARLIER 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING ALONG THE WEST COAST WITH A CLOSED CIRCULATION AT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH SPINNING OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. A LARGE LOW PRESSURE AREA REMAINS OVER ONTARIO AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH A BROAD TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH INTO THE EASTERN CONUS. LATEST MSAS SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING SOUTH FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH A COLD FRONT ALONG THE KS/OK BORDER. THIS COULD ALLOW OVERNIGHT LOWS TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOWER 30S AGAIN WITH DRY/COOL AIRMASS STILL IN PLACE.
926 AM EDT WED APR 22 2015 A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER OVER THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. WITH THE COLD AIR AND UPPER LEVEL LOW I EXPECT WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. 12Z SOUNDINGS SUGGEST HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S. I MAY NEED TO LOWER THE HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES LATER THIS MORNING. UPPER LOW REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE ONTARIO/QUEBEC REGION. AT THE SURFACE A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SPREADING RAIN SHOWERS INVOF THE FRONT. THE NAM SHOWS NO BIG CHANGES IN STORE FOR NRN OHIO AND NWRN PA THROUGH THURSDAY AT LEAST WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE ROTATING ACROSS THE AREA AROUND THE CLOSED STAGNANT UPPER LOW.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AS RAIN CHANCES LESSEN FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES FURTHER AWAY FROM THE REGION. /ISSUED 442 AM CDT WED APR 22 2015/ A COLD FRONT IS MAKING GOOD PROGRESS SOUTH ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL STAY VERY COOL NORTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND MAY REMAIN EVEN COOLER THAN FORECAST IF THE RAIN PERSISTS TOO LATE INTO THE AFTERNOON.
711 AM EDT WED APR 22 2015 A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER OVER THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. UPPER LOW REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE ONTARIO/QUEBEC REGION. AT THE SURFACE A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SPREADING RAIN SHOWERS INVOF THE FRONT. THE NAM SHOWS NO BIG CHANGES IN STORE FOR NRN OHIO AND NWRN PA THROUGH THURSDAY AT LEAST WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE ROTATING ACROSS THE AREA AROUND THE CLOSED STAGNANT UPPER LOW.
735 AM EDT WED APR 22 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO THE EAST THIS MORNING. LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
910 AM PDT WED APR 22 2015 PERIODS OF CLOUDS AND COOLER WEATHER WILL PERSIST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK DUE TO A SUCCESSION OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS.
619 AM CDT WED APR 22 2015 ELONGATED HIGH PRESSURE FROM CANADA TO THE MISSOURI BASIN DRIFTS EAST TODAY SETTING UP A COOL SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW FROM KANSAS. THE RAP MODEL INDICATES A WARM FRONT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS WRN NEB WHICH MOVES EAST THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE OBVIOUS CULPRIT IS 700MB FRONTOGENESIS AND THE DEVELOPING WARM FRONT. LOWS TONIGHT FALL INTO THE 30S TO NEAR FREEZING EAST OF HIGHWAY 83. LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ONSHORE THE WEST COAST THURSDAY. WITH FLOW ALOFT BECOMING SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
WEAK COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING INTO NORTHERN TENNESSEE. COLD FRONT PRESSING DOWN FROM THE NORTH COULD INCREASE CLOUDINESS A BIT LATER TODAY. A COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED FROM NEAR CLEVELAND TO ST LOUIS EARLY THIS MORNING.
626 AM CDT Wed Apr 22 2015 For today, cooler temperatures are expected in the wake of a cold front which passed through the region late last evening.
1211 PM EDT WED APR 22 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO THE EAST THIS MORNING. LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
941 AM EDT WED APR 22 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO THE EAST THIS MORNING. LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
AND PLENTY OF TROPICAL MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS. A DEEP LAYER SUBTROPICAL AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. BREAKING DOWN THE LINGERING STATIONARY TROUGH ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH TONIGHT. THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS WILL BECOME DRIER BUT THE LOW LEVEL TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. WITH THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WE EXPECT TO SEE DEVELOPMENT OF ISLAND CLOUD LINES LATER THIS MORNING OR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPING SHOWERS.
RIDGING ALOFT WILL PROVIDE SUBSIDENCE AND WILL HELP INHIBIT DEEP DEVELOPMENT. LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND A WEAK SHORT WAVE OVER NORTHEAST MEXICO. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO THIS MORNING. DRIER AIR WORKS DOWN INTO THE LOWER LAYERS LATER TODAY AND ALLOWS SOME MILD CAPPING TO DEVELOP. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 80S NEAR THE COAST TO THE MID AND UPPER 80S ELSEWHERE. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
A MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT VALLEY LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GIVE PARTLY SUNNY SKIES TODAY AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT.
07Z/2AM SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT SETTLING SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE OHIO RIVER, WHILE A POST-FRONTAL BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS PERSISTS ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS. WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT AS THE ATMOSPHERE DECOUPLES: HOWEVER, WITH RIDGE AXIS REMAINING WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER, THINK A LIGHT WESTERLY BREEZE OF AROUND 5MPH WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS MAY INHIBIT WIDESPREAD FROST FORMATION DESPITE LOW TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OVERHEAD ON THURSDAY, PROVIDING A SUNNY AND COOL DAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 60. ANOTHER COLD AND POTENTIALLY FROSTY NIGHT IS SETTING UP FOR THURSDAY NIGHT, AS RIDGE AXIS SLOWLY SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO INDIANA BY 12Z FRI. UPPER LOW CURRENTLY SPINNING OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL GET EJECTED NORTHEASTWARD BY A NORTHERN STREAM WAVE COMING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE SOUTHWEST OF UTAH WILL SEND MOISTURE NORTH ACROSS UTAH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY. SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS COVERING MUCH OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY POSITIONED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF UTAH. THIS LOW WHICH HAS BEEN DRIFTING NORTH OVERNIGHT WILL STALL NEAR KLAS SOMETIME THIS AFTERNOON. THE BEST ORGANIZED SHOWERS EXIST NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE DEFORMATION AXIS ALONG THE NORTHERN FLANK OF THE LOW ACROSS CENTRAL UTAH. THE SOUTHWARD RETREAT OF THE WEAKENING UPPER LOW WILL END MOST OF THE REMAINING CONVECTION OVERNIGHT. DOWN SOUTH THE REMNANT OF THE UPPER LOW COULD SUPPORT ADDITIONAL CONVECTION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS BY AFTERNOON.
1015 AM EDT WED APR 22 2015 UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL MAINTAIN COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEK. REINFORCING COLD FRONT IS BI-SECTING THE FORECAST AREA CURRENTLY FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. MUCH COLDER AIR ALOFT WILL ERODE THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL INVERSIONS AND STEEPEN LAPSE RATES. FREEZING LEVEL IS ONLY ABOUT 3-4KFT THIS AFTERNOON SO ADDITIONAL GRAUPEL OR SMALL HAIL WOULD BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY RAIN SHOWERS.
MAIN CHANGE TO OUR AFTERNOON GRIDDED FORECASTS WAS TO BOOST POPS AND OUR AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BASED ON THE 12Z NAM SHOWING A WELL PRONOUNCED 850/700 MB THETA-E RIDGE AXIS NORTH TO SOUTH ALONG AND JUST WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE AND INTERSTATE 25. WHICH WILL BE LIFTING NORTHWARD SLOWLY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS AHEAD OF AN UPPER LOW OVER SRN CALIFORNIA WHICH WILL MOVE LITTLE THROUGH THURSDAY. UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL BE OVER THE REGION BUT IMPULSES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE RIDGE AND ACROSS THE CWA HELPING TO SET OFF PCPN MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS.
RIDGE AXIS OVER THE FL STRAITS WILL GENERATE A LIGHT TO GENTLE WRLY BREEZE ACRS THE LCL ATLC.
Northwest flow continues to dominate the Central Plains with upper low still over the Great Lakes and cutoff low south of ridge in the western states. A stronger wave was rotating around the southern edge of the low and brought a cold front through all but southeastern corner of Kansas as of 08Z.
1200 PM EDT WED APR 22 2015 A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER OVER THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. I WILL BUMP THE HIGH TEMPERATURES BACK A FEW DEGREES INTO THE MID 40S. UPPER LOW REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE ONTARIO/QUEBEC REGION. AT THE SURFACE A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SPREADING RAIN SHOWERS INVOF THE FRONT. THE NAM SHOWS NO BIG CHANGES IN STORE FOR NRN OHIO AND NWRN PA THROUGH THURSDAY AT LEAST WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE ROTATING ACROSS THE AREA AROUND THE CLOSED STAGNANT UPPER LOW.
742 AM EDT WED APR 22 2015 A LINGERING BOUNDARY, THAT WAS A COLD FRONT, WILL HELP TO TRIGGER CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAY, AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER JET IS UNUSUAL, ROUGHLY 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL, AND IS DRIVEN NOT ONLY BY THE BLOCKY H5 PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA, BUT ALSO BY THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN WHICH HAS DELIVERED MANY OPPRESSIVELY WARM DAYS RECENTLY.
ONLY UPDATE MADE WAS TO THIS MORNING'S SKY COVER TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LOW STRATUS BANKED UP ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE COOLER THAN YESTERDAY BY ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES. THE COMBINATION OF HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND LOW PRESSURE INLAND WILL RESULT IN GUSTY NORTH WINDS AND VERY STEEP SEAS INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. WINDS AND SEAS WILL THEN DIMINISH AS A WEAKENING COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WATER ON THURSDAY.
SFC COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SETTLE SOUTH OF THE TERMINAL SITES TODAY. WHICH WILL BE CLOSEST TO THE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD TODAY. WHERE WARMER TEMPERATURES AND BETTER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN AHEAD OF THE FRONT. A RENEWED AREA OF LEE TROUGHING SETS UP AND PUSHES THE CONVECTIVE CHANCES EASTWARD AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SINKS SOUTH AND AXIS OF CONVERGENCE SHIFTS INTO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PANHANDLES.
LATEST ANALYSIS AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS PLACE THE POSITION OF THE COLD FRONT IN THE WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY. MOISTURE RESIDING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SW IDAHO COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS. NOT AS WARM TODAY AS A COLD FRONT OVER SE OREGON THESE WEE EARLY MORNING HOURS. COOLER THURSDAY IN POST-FRONTAL DRY WEATHER.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN FAIRLY CLOSE TO NORMAL LEVELS WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER 80S.
401 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015 A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ANCHORED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES OFF THE DELMARVA COAST THROUGH EARLY IN THE UPCOMING WEEK WHILE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS OVER PENNSYLVANIA. A FEW UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES AND THE APPROACH OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL HELP TO TRIGGER ISOLATED TO SCATTERED.
The arrival of a cold front tonight will cool temperatures closer to average on Memorial Day.
104 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE AREA FROM OFFSHORE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO PROVIDE PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE AND A WARM SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH MOST LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE WATER INTO THE LOWER 80S. THE NORTHERN OUTER BANKS WILL STAY IN THE LOWER 70S NEAR THE COOLER OCEAN WATER IN THAT AREA. 00Z MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE RIDGING SFC AND ALOFT PRODUCING DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH MIDWEEK. BUT HAVE TRENDED TOWARD SHRT WV ENERGY FROM W-SW WEAKENING RIDGE LATE WEEK WHILE SLOWING WESTWARD MOVEMENT OF UPR LOW OVER ATLC.
135 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015 /ISSUED 311 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015/ HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFFSHORE THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THIS MORNING. WHILE LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY.
THIS MID/UPR CLOSED LOW IS EXPECTED TO TRACK FURTHER NORTH THAN THE PREVIOUS S/WV WHICH AFFECTED THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. WL MAINTAIN THE HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AND SCA CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY GIVEN THE PERSISTENT MODERATE TO STRONG ONSHORE GRADIENT.
337 PM MDT SUN MAY 24 2015 THE SATELLITE AND RADAR PICTURES HAVE THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LOW SILL OVER SOUTHERN CENTRAL WYOMING RIGHT NOW. MODELS ACTUALLY SHOW THE CENTER OF THE UPPER CLOSED LOW TO BE RIGHT OVER THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF COLORADO AT 18Z MONDAY.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. AMPLIFYING THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING EASTWARD FROM THE TN/OH VALLEY INTO THE MID- ATLANTIC/CAROLINAS. RESULTING IN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES /DRY CONDITIONS/ AND A CONTINUED WARMING TREND WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S AND LOWS TONIGHT IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. EXPECT DRY AND SLIGHTLY WARMER CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S AND LOWS MON NIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.
The highest amounts will across far southeast areas, with local amounts of 1 to 2 inches possible.
WITH UPPER PATTERN STILL FAVORING A RELOADING WESTERN TROUGH WITH RIPPLES EMBEDDED IN THE WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE PLAINS.
SOME OF THIS HIGHER MOMENTUM AIR WILL BE TRANSFERRED TO THE SURFACE RESULTING IN GUSTS OF 30-35MPH.
BUT FELT THAT UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING COULD BE AN INHIBITOR FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THAT TIME. DO THINK THERE WILL BE SOME MORE SCT DEVELOPMENT AS WE HEAT INTO THE LOWER 80S LATER THIS AFTN.
256 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL GIVE US DRY WEATHER OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY. EARLY MONDAY A WARM FRONT WILL PASS BY TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA BUT BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DOMINATING THE REGION AS THE UPPER LOW NOW SITS OVER SOUTHERN ARIZONA. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL ON MEMORIAL DAY AS A LOW RIDES OVER THE EPAC RIDGE AND SITS OVER WESTERN CANADA. THE UPPER LOW OVER WESTERN CANADA WILL SLOW DRIFT INTO THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST AS AN OMEGA BLOCK FORMS OVER THE WEST COAST.
1209 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015 A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS AND A WARMER AIRMASS EXPECTED IN ITS WAKE. THE FIRST UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY.
632 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015 A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ANCHORED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES OFF THE DELMARVA COAST THROUGH EARLY IN THE UPCOMING WEEK WHILE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS OVER PENNSYLVANIA. A FEW UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES AND THE APPROACH OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL HELP TO TRIGGER ISOLATED TO SCATTERED.
RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD BUT TRACK OF LOW AND TROUGH IS A BIT FARTHER EAST AND WITH HIGH PRESSURE HOLDING STRONG IN MANITOBA.
Given the strength of the low level shear and presence of more than ample low level CAPE the risk for isolated tornadoes will continue into the evening across south central Missouri. Another round of moderate to heavy rainfall will overspread much of the area this evening with the highest rates across south central Missouri.
AND MOBRIDGE CLOSER TO 4 PM CDT. WITH THE MAIN LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE UTAH/COLORADO/WYOMING BORDERS. WITH PERHAPS SOME GREATER QPF POSSIBLE AS PRECIPITATION WRAPS AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW MONDAY AFTERNOON.
UNDER A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY AND SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW TEMPERATURES HAVE SURGED INTO THE LOWER 80S IN MANY SPOTS AS OF 3 PM EDT. THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE THAT HAS BROUGHT US SUCH SUSTAINED FAIR WEATHER WILL SHIFT OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. HIGHS WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER.
BY LATE WEEK MORE SUBSTANTIAL MID LEVEL TROUGHING MOVES INTO THE PLAINS WITH A SLOW MOVING BOUNDARY IN PROXIMITY.
The enviroment will be supportive of embedded mesovortices and short lived tornadoes as low level shear and helicity values will increase as the surface wind begins to back to the south-southeast as low pressure forms to our west.
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEAR TERM PERIOD AS UPPER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE UPPER OHIO AND GREAT LAKES REGIONS.
ALTHOUGH THE LOWER LEVELS HAVE BEEN STABILIZED SOMEWHAT BY REPEATED MCS ACTIVITY OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS, SOME RECOVERY IS EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON OVER FAR WESTERN KANSAS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AND MID TO UPPER LEVEL COLD POOL. THUNDERSTORMS WERE ALREADY DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF COLORADO. ALSO, UPPER LEVEL WINDS IN THE TROUGH AXIS WERE WEAK, YIELDING VERY WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHEAR. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WARMER IN THE ABSENCE OF UPSLOPE FLOW, WITH HIGHS FROM THE MID 70S IN FAR WESTERN KANSAS TO THE LOWER 80S IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
LOW PRESSURE WAS NOTED ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS. THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA TONIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD.
219 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL GIVE US DRY WEATHER OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY. EARLY MONDAY A WARM FRONT WILL PASS BY TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA BUT BRING A CHANCE OF SHWERS.
FOR SEVERAL DAYS THE UPPER LOW HAS PULLED SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE NORTH AND BACK TO THE NORTHWEST AROUND THE LOW. WE NOW EXPECT THE WARM FRONT THAT WAS CURRENTLY ANALYZED OVER EASTERN KANSAS TO DRIFT NORTH INTO SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA/SOUTHWEST IOWA BY SUNSET. ANY LIFT FROM THE WARM FRONT AS WELL AS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE RAIN. TONIGHT THERE ARE SOME FACTORS THAT ARE VERY SUPPORTIVE OF RAIN ESPECIALLY THE WARM FRONT AND ANOTHER DISTINCT WAVE MOVING UP THROUGH KANSAS.
THE H5 RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE CWA WILL SHIFT TO OUR EAST PUTTING THE CWA IN A SOUTHWEST FLOW. MAX TEMPS ON MONDAY WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER THAN TODAY OVER MOST AREAS.
311 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015 ABUNDANT SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON RESULTED IN WARMER TEMPS AND MORE MIXING THAN INDICATED BY MOST OF THE MODELS. EVEN THOUGH THE LOW LEVELS HAVE WARMED AND MOISTENED. THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL OF ANY ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS TO BE OVER SE MISSOURI LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING.
STILL LOOKING FOR ANOTHER STRONG NEGATIVE TROUGH TO MOVE ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES DURING THE DAY MONDAY PRODUCING ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE FOUR STATE REGION.
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES A LONGWAVE RIDGE TO THE EAST CENTERED ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WITH A CLOSED LOW TO THE WEST ACROSS THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON LABOR DAY INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEYS.
RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE WEEK AS THE PATTERN OF DISTURBANCES ROLLING IN FROM THE EAST ALONG WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR WEST WILL KEEP THE GULF MOISTURE FLOWING. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL TRY TO BUILD IN OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE GULF OF MEXICO LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT IS PRODUCING THE HIGHEST RAIN TOTALS OVER SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE BLACK HILLS. TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WATER VAPOR SHOWS LARGE COMPLEX UPPER TROF OVER THE WRN CONUS WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE TRANSPORT THROUGH THE PLAINS. AN UPPER LOW WAS NOTED OVER ERN UT/WRN CO WITH JET STREAK LIFTING NWD THROUGH FAR ERN CO. BETTER CHANCES FOR WDSPRD PCPN IN OUR NRN ZONES TONIGHT AS UPPER LOW SHIFTS INTO ERN WY/WRN SD. UPPER LOW/TROF SLOWLY SHIFTS INTO THE ERN DAKOTAS WITH PCPN CHANCES GRADUALLY ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST BY MONDAY NIGHT.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY INTO TONIGHT, THE WEATHER REGIME WILL REMAIN ACTIVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AS THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES, WOBBLES ONLY SLOWLY NORTHEAST INTO THE DAKOTAS LATER TONIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP A COOLER BUT MOIST EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND OVER MOST OF SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL KANSAS THROUGH TODAY WITH WIDESPREAD LOWER CLOUD COVER REMAINING AN ISSUE.
141 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015 BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS THROUGH MIDWEEK. THE HIGH THEN MOVES FARTHER OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC AND WEAKENS ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION WITH MULTIPLE LOWS PASSING FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA FROM THE MIDDLE THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK. A MIX OF WARMER MET/EKD GUIDANCE. THE SUBSIDENCE FROM THE RIDGE WILL STILL BE PROMINENT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH A STRONG BERMUDA HIGH IN PLACE. AGAIN SIDING WITH A RELATIVELY WARMER SOLUTION. EXPECTING HIGH TEMPS NEAR THE SURFACE TO BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE. MORE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED BUT WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY WITH A WARM FRONT TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION.
107 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WITH A DRY AND WARM MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. DEEP LAYER SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWEST FLOW SETTLES IN AS 5H RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS TO THE EAST.
THE UPPER RIDGE THAT HAS DOMINATED THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE NATION. THIS WILL KEEP FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY FROM BEING MUCH WARMER THAN TODAY. DEEP LAYER SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWEST FLOW SETTLES IN AS 5H RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS TO THE EAST.
347 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015 SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW LOCATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. A WARM FRONT IS LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE AREA. WITH A COLD FRONT SOUTH OF THE LOW INTO WEST TX. DRY SLOT WRAPPING INTO THE UPPER LOW HAS ALLOWED PART OF WESTERN NEBRASKA TO SEE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY PUSH EAST AND OPEN UP. BY TOMORROW MODELS HAVE 2 UPPER LEVEL LOWS. TOMORROW AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SPLITS AND ONE CENTERS OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA. ALTHOUGH COULD SEE SOME SMALL HAIL AS FREEZING LEVELS LOWER.
RAIN SO FAR HAS BEEN SLOW TO SHIFT NORTHWARD HOWEVER AS FORCING WITH UPPER LOW APPROACHES LATER TONIGHT EXPECT RAIN TO BECOME MORE ORGANIZED AND LIFT NORTHWARD.
120 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015 HIGH PRESSURE BOTH SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES THROUGH MONDAY. THIS WILL ENSURE DRY WEATHER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURE AND HUMIDITY TRENDING WARMER. PWAT VALUES RUNNING 60 TO 90 PERCENT OF NORMAL ALONG WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND BUILDING ALOFT WILL BRING ANOTHER PRECIPITATION FREE DAY ACROSS OUR AREA. ADJUSTED HIGH TEMPS ONLY SLIGHTLY HIGHER TODAY AS MORNING VALUES WERE RUNNING A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER THAN GUIDANCE.
THIS IS RELATED TO THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PRESENT IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. A FEW VERY HIGH CLOUDS ARE VISIBLE FROM TIME TO TIME ROTATING AROUND THIS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. WITH EASTERLY WINDS THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST FOR THE INTERIOR AND WEST COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DESPITE THE STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FORECAST FOR THIS COMING WEEK THE H5 TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO STAY AROUND -8C FOR ALMOST THE ENTIRE WEEK SINCE THE STRONGEST SUBSIDENCE AND WARMING IS FORECAST TO OCCUR JUST EAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.
255 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015 WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A NUMBER OF IMPULSES ROTATING THROUGH THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH. A BROAD AREA OF LEE TROUGHING REMAINS IN PLACE WITH A MESO LOW ALONG THE OK/AR BORDER. THE BEST PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE THIS EVENING AS THE WAVE LIFTS ACROSS EASTERN KS BUT WITH THE HIGHER PW'S AND BETTER MOISTURE TRANSPORT EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. NOT EXPECTING THE HIGH RAINFALL RATES WE GOT LAST NIGHT. LACK OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL LIMIT THE HIGHER END SEVERE BUT WITH THAT MUCH INSTABILITY.
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR MOSAIC CLEARLY SHOWS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SPINNING OVER WESTERN COLORADO THIS MORNING AS IT LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST. A STRONG VORT MAX IS ROTATING AROUND THE LOW PRESSURE AND WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN LOCALES THIS MORNING AFFECTING SOUTHERN VALLEYS AND ALSO THE SAN JUANS. COLD AIR IS ALSO MOVING OVER THE SAME AREA THANKS TO THE COLD CORE NATURE OF THIS LOW PRESSURE. THE LOW WILL HAVE DRIFTED TO THE NORTHEAST BUT WE'RE STILL NOT OUT OF THE WOODS YET. THE REST OF THE CWA WILL SEE SHOWERS AND STORMS FIRING FIRST OVER THE HIGHEST TERRAIN BEFORE DROPPING INTO THE VALLEYS.