Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
THE TAIL END OF A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA THIS EVENING. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER CALIFORNIA ON SATURDAY AND RESULT IN A PARTLY CLOUDY.
1250 AM EST SAT FEB 27 2016 BROAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.
A SWIFT-MOVING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS POISED TO SWEEP ACROSS SE IDAHO TODAY.
NUDGED THE LOW DOWN A LITTLE THERE. BUT THE BIGGER STORY MAY BE THE GUSTY WINDS DEVELOPING OVER THE RIDGES.
1243 AM EST SAT FEB 27 2016 HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SOME INLAND AREAS ALONG WITH THE PINE BARRENS DECOUPLE ALLOWING TEMPS TO FALL IN THE LOWER TEENS. USED THE WARMER GFS MOS AS THEY'VE SUBJECTIVELY BEEN VERIFYING BETTER OF LATE.
351 AM CST SAT FEB 27 2016 TODAY WILL BE REMINISCENT OF YESTERDAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES. PERSISTENT SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL MAKE FOR MILD TEMPS OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE LOW/MID 30S ACROSS OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES TO THE UPPER 40S ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES. ALDRICH EXTENDED WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY RIDGING OUT WEST AND A PERSISTENT LOW UP NEAR HUDSON BAY.
THE HIGH SETTLES SOUTH TONIGHT TAKING A POSITION OVER SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA WITH EXCELLENT RADITIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED. AS A RESULT WILL GO A SHADE BELOW GUIDANCE RESULTING IN TEMPS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE LOWER 30S AREAWIDE.
Temperatures this afternoon will be mild and we have generally gone on the high side of guidance. Those winds will then actually increase tonight as pressure gradients continue to tighten ahead of a mid-level short wave trough. Lows will range from the middle 40s across the eastern Ozarks to the lower 50s near the Missouri/Kansas border.
1255 AM EST SAT FEB 27 2016 HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SOME INLAND AREAS ALONG WITH THE PINE BARRENS DECOUPLE ALLOWING TEMPS TO FALL IN THE LOWER TEENS. USED THE WARMER GFS MOS AS THEY'VE SUBJECTIVELY BEEN VERIFYING BETTER OF LATE.
128 AM EST SAT FEB 27 2016 BROAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.
400 AM CST SAT FEB 27 2016 AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRANSITION ACROSS THE PLAINS TODAY. WITH WARMER AIR ADVECTING IN FROM THE WEST IN THE LOWER LAYERS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. EXPECT THIS WARMER AIRMASS TO HELP TEMPERATURES CLIMB WELL ABOVE NORMAL BY MID AFTERNOON. WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES PEAKING IN THE LOWER 70S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. EXPECT THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO STRENGTHEN OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WITH LOW TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S AT MOST SPOTS.
330 AM MST THU APR 16 2015 EXPECT COOL TEMPERATURES AND SCATTERED RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SITS NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS.
1032 PM PDT WED APR 15 2015 A ridge of high pressure will build over the region, bringing warm, dry days and cool nights, through the remainder of the work week.
620 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015 A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. IF NOT WARMER THAN SEASONAL AVERAGES FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
ACTIVITY SHOULD BEGIN DEVELOPING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS ALONG THE WARM FRONT LATER THIS MORNING. THE LINGERING WARM FRONT. SOME LINGERING ACTIVITY ON SAT WITH DRYING/CLEARING CONDITIONS SUN AS THE MAIN UPPER LOW FINALLY (!!!) LIFTS OUT TO THE E/NE. THE EN- SUING NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL HELP TO PUSH A COLD FRONT OFF THE COAST LATE SUN/EARLY MON. THE STRONGER WINDS APPEAR TO BE SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT. THAT MAY WELL CHANGE LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS WARM FRONT LIFTS INLAND AND NEXT AND MORE POTENT S/W ARRIVES.
WARM AND MOIST GULF AIR MASS WILL QUICKLY OVERTAKE THE REGION AND ALLOW FOR SHWRS AND ISOLD TSTMS TO DEVELOP LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL AID IN THE INCREASING LIFT LEE OF THE ROCKIES. THE SLOW PROGRESSION OF THIS LOW ACROSS THE ROCKIES WILL LEAD TO SEVERAL SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCES ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROF.
DUE TO TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE TO OUR NORTH AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE JUST EAST OF OUR COASTAL WATERS. IS DRIVING A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT INTO OUR AREA THIS MORNING. THE END RESULT WILL BE COOLER CONDITIONS AND MUCH LESS PRECIP.
THE LONG WAVE PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA FEATURES A LARGE UPPER LOW OVER UTAH AND A RIDGE FROM THE CARIBBEAN NORTHEAST ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND OFF THE SOUTHEAST U. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT A COLD FRONT HAS BACK DOORED ITS WAY INTO SOUTH GA AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.
A BUILDING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO WARMER WEATHER TOMORROW AND FRIDAY.
338 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015 UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE ROCKIES IS FORECAST TO CUT OFF FROM THE MAIN BELT OF THE WESTERLIES AND MOVE SOUTH NEAR THE 4-CORNERS AREA. THE SURFACE COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM A LOW NEAR HUDSON BAY SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARDS PEMBINA. TO NEAR MOBRIDGE IN SOUTH DAKOTA. ON FRIDAY WESTERN CONUS WILL BE IN A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WITH RIDGING DEVELOPING OVER OUR AREA IN THE NORTHERN STREAM.
THE INFLUENCE FROM THE RIDGE TO THE EAST WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE TO THE EAST TONIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH LIFTS INTO MN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BRIEFLY BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT LATE THUR AFTERNOON.
UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS NOW OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SPINS OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR RETURN TO THE REGION FRIDAY. BY FRIDAY NIGHT THE UPPER LEVEL LOW FROM THE SOUTHWEST CONUS WILL SLOWLY MOVE TOWARD THE PLAINS STATES.
655 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR THURSDAY WITH MODEST SOUTHERLY WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS. FOLLOWING A COOL START, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING ANOTHER DRY DAY FOR THURSDAY. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE LOW 60S IN THE CATSKILLS TO THE UPPER 60S OVER THE LAKE PLAIN. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE WARMER IN RESPONSE TO THE CLOUDS, SHOWERS AND WARM ADVECTION.
238 AM PDT THU APR 16 2015 A ridge of high pressure will remain over the region, bringing warm, dry days and cool nights, through the remainder of the work week.
357 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015 THE MUCH ADVERTISED COOL WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE HAS PUSHED IN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. THE WEDGE WILL RESULT IN NEAR 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR HIGHS TODAY.
A STRONG UPPER RIDGE IS NOW BUILDING INTO THE WEST COAST. THE RIDGE WILL BREAK TO THE EAST OF THE AREA FRIDAY.
PASSAGE OF THE MAIN VORTICITY CENTER ANCHORING THE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL PROVIDE A MORE FAVORABLE BACKGROUND FOR SOME DEGREE OF SHOWER DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AFOREMENTIONED HIGHER MOISTURE PLUME EXISTING JUST UPSTREAM WILL ACCOMPANY THE LOWER HEIGHTS THROUGH DURING THIS TIME. MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS PIVOTS THROUGH TONIGHT. EXTENSIVE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TIED TO THE THERMAL TROUGHING WILL KEEP SKIES CLOUDY WELL INTO THE EARLY MORNING PERIOD. 5 TO 9 C ADVERTISED AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT. AND THE DETROIT AREA AND POINTS SOUTH WILL LIKELY SEE MAXES IN THE LOWER 70S.
255 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015 HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA TODAY.
MUCH COOLER AIR TODAY WITH NOT QUITE AS MUCH WIND AS YESTERDAY FOR MOST AREAS. CLEARING AND COLDER TONIGHT WITH THE COLD FRONT NOW EXITING THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE.
BUT DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY THIS WEEKEND WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE SOUTHERN SIERRA WHERE AN ISOLATED SHOWER IS POSSIBLE WITH THE APPROACH OF A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE.
DUE TO THE SYSTEM DROPPING SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN ARIZONA UP TO THIS POINT, A SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS PROGRESSED SOUTHWARD THROUGH COLORADO EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY AND BEGIN TO ADVANCE NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. GOOD CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED TONIGHT AS WELL AS THE LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES AND EVENING THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS LINGER. SOUTH WINDS AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING BELOW THE 50S TONIGHT, EXCEPT PERHAPS ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER WHERE IT WILL BE A LITTLE DRIER. EXPECTED WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS OUTFLOW WILL PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM STAYING EVEN WARMER TONIGHT. UPPER LOW OVER SOUTH CENTRAL COLORADO IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL COLORADO BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH A LARGE DRY SLOT INTO WESTERN KANSAS.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS BUILDING OVER THE WEST COAST THIS MORNING. COOL NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES THIS MORNING BUT SHOULD SUBSIDE AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER UTAH CUTS OFF FROM THE PARENT JET STREAM. A WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE AS TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE 5-10 DEGREES WARMER WITH ANOTHER 5 DEGREES ON FRIDAY.
417 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015 A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LIFT FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TODAY. TRAILING A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR THE START OF THE WEEKEND.
339 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR THURSDAY WITH MODEST SOUTHERLY WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS. FOLLOWING A COOL START, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING ANOTHER DRY DAY FOR THURSDAY. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE LOW 60S IN THE CATSKILLS TO THE UPPER 60S OVER THE LAKE PLAIN. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE WARMER IN RESPONSE TO THE CLOUDS, SHOWERS AND WARM ADVECTION.
GIVEN THE AMPLIFYING UPPER RIDGE THAT IS MOVING OVER THE REGION TODAY.
432 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015 STORMY PATTERN WILL PERSIST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY NEAR MONUMENT VALLEY VERY SLOWLY DRIFTS EAST TOWARD THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS.
659 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY.
602 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015 LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST WILL HELP MAINTAIN LOW CLOUDINESS WITH AREAS OF DRIZZLE INTO FRIDAY.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. HIGHS WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER STILL ON FRIDAY.
205 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CHARGE OVERNIGHT WITH A MAINLY CLEAR SKY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE LATE IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING WITH THE APPROACH OF AN TROUGH. THE TROUGH MOVES OUT OF THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON. IF CLOUDS LINGER LONGER TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER FOR AFTN HIGHS.
305 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION EARLY TODAY BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND WILL CROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY.
349 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015 A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
118 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT THEN MOVE SOUTH THURSDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY.
419 AM MDT THU APR 16 2015 High pressure will exist over the Northern Rockies through Friday.
LARGE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO/SOUTHEAST WYOMING CONTINUES TO PROVIDE STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL MONTANA AND NORTHERN WYOMING. AS THE UPPER LOW SHIFTS SLOWLY EAST AND SOUTH. MODELS KEEP THE UPPER LOW OVER COLORADO THROUGH FRIDAY BUT THE FAR NORTHERN DYNAMICS OF THE SYSTEM WEAKEN SO CONDITIONS WILL BE DRYING OUT BY THURSDAY LEAVING JUST A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FROM SHERIDAN COUNTY NORTHEAST ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST MONTANA. SUNSHINE WILL RETURN FOR MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON RESULTING IN MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH READINGS AROUND NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
437 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015 VERY DRY AND QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES UNDER SFC AND UPPER RIDGING. THE DRY AIRMASS OVERHEAD HAS MIXED TO DEW POINTS IN THE LOW TO MID TEENS OVER THE INTERIOR W HALF. AND WITH TEMPS IN THE 60S SFC RH VALUES HAVE FALLEN INTO THE LOW TO MID TEENS AS WELL. WITH THE HIGH ENDING UP OVER LAKE SUPERIOR IN THE AFTN. IT WILL BE A MUCH COOLER DAY NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. WILL LEAN TOWARD A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF FOR HANDLING THE EVOLUTION OF THE SRN ROCKIES ENERGY INTO THE GREAT LAKES AHEAD OF THE TROF AMPLIFICATION OCCURRING INTO THE PLAINS/MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
620 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015 HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST SHOULD PROVIDE DRY WEATHER FOR MOST OF THE DAY ACROSS CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.
505 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015 THE MUCH ADVERTISED COOL WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE HAS PUSHED IN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. THE WEDGE WILL RESULT IN NEAR 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR HIGHS TODAY.
/ISSUED 222 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2015/ Much warmer today, thanks to abundant sunshine and the return of southerly flow. An upper low continues to move toward the four corners region today resulting in SW flow aloft over SE NM and W TX. Expect this activity to continue to develop near the higher terrain this afternoon and move east over adjacent plains through this evening where better moisture/instability will reside. The upper low will meander a little closer on Thursday with some weak upper forcing increasing over the region through the day. The upper low will slowly begin to move eastward Friday and eventually make its way into the Central Plains by the weekend.
330 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY.
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP EAST OF GEORGIA/NORTH FLORIDA ON THURSDAY. AND DEEPER MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO PUSH SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION AS THE 850MB RIDGE SHIFTS SOUTHWARD.
309 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015 A VIGOROUS TROUGH CONTINUES TO TRANSLATE SLOWLY EASTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT BASIN AREA TOWARD THE CENTRAL ROCKIES REGION.
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED THE CLOSED LOW OVER THE ROCKIES AS IT CONTINUED TO SEND A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES ACROSS THE CWA FOR OUR UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN. SOME OF THE SHORT RANGE MODELS KEEPS THE HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS ALONG THE SOUTH WHERE CONVERGENCE WILL BE A LITTLE BETTER ALONG THE BOUNDARY.
127 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015 LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST WILL HELP MAINTAIN LOW CLOUDINESS WITH AREAS OF DRIZZLE INTO FRIDAY.
323 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015 HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST TODAY AND TONIGHT. A TROF OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES FRIDAY.
105 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015 A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. IF NOT WARMER THAN SEASONAL AVERAGES FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
521 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015 HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA TODAY.
636 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR THURSDAY WITH MODEST SOUTHERLY WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS. FOLLOWING A COOL START, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING ANOTHER DRY DAY FOR THURSDAY. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE LOW 60S IN THE CATSKILLS TO THE UPPER 60S OVER THE LAKE PLAIN. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE WARMER IN RESPONSE TO THE CLOUDS, SHOWERS AND WARM ADVECTION.
405 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015 A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. IF NOT WARMER THAN SEASONAL AVERAGES FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
329 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015 UPPER TROFFING WILL QUICKLY DEPART THE AREA THIS MORNING, WITH RIDGING TAKING ITS PLACE. THE DEPARTURE OF THE TROFFING WILL ALSO BRING OUR RAINFALL CHANCES TO AN END FOR NOW. THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THE VORTICITY CENTER WITH THE TROF IS CURRENTLY OVER OUR FAR EAST-CENTRAL COUNTIES, AND IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SHOWERS FALLING OVER CHAMPAIGN, VERMILION, AND EDGAR COUNTIES. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY TO START THE DAY, BUT AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING IS EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON AS THE TROF PULLS AWAY AND THE RIDGE BUILDS IN. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH SUN TO HELP PUSH TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO WHERE THEY WERE YESTERDAY, MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S.
345 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015 CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED ECHOS LIFTING NORTH OVER MUCH OF MN EARLY THIS MORNING IN A REGION OF MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE CLOUD COVER TODAY WILL ALLOW FOR SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPERATURES THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS. TOPPING OUT IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 60S TODAY. TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO 70 WILL RETURN WITH SUNNY SKIES FRIDAY AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHLAND. EXCEPT STRONGER WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AS A COLD FRONT IN ONTARIO APPROACHES THE BORDERLAND. A SUBTLE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHLAND IN THE WAKE OF A WEAK LOW MOVING THROUGH ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO ONTARIO AND THE LAKE SUPERIOR REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.
346 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015 REGION STUCK BETWEEN SYSTEMS WITH UPPER LOW NEAR NEW MEXICO SPAWNING AREAS OF MOSTLY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER LAKE MICHIGAN TO KEEP LIGHT WINDS TODAY AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS UPPER LOW NEARLY STATIONERY SUGGESTING NO IMPACTS TO OUR AREA FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER 24 HOURS. CURRENTLY GOING WITH UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S WHICH WOULD BE AROUND 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN NORMAL. ZONAL MID-LEVEL WINDS WILL PREVAIL DOWNSTREAM OF A CUT-OFF LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS.
IT THEN MOVES OFF AND WE SEE GRADUAL CLEARING AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TAKES HOLD AGAIN. BUT THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP IT COOLER CLOSE TO LAKE MICHIGAN. QUIET WEATHER TONIGHT UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. TEMPS WILL BE COOLER NEAR THE LAKE AGAIN.
638 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015 A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LIFT FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TODAY. TRAILING A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR THE START OF THE WEEKEND.
Clouds through the overnight and a generally warm air mass will result in low temps tonight staying up above freezing, mainly in the mid to upper 30s. Areas NW of the Illinois River Valley most likely to see temps closer to freezing tonight as well as having the highest chance to see some patchy fog. Significant winter weather will impact areas to the north of the low while areas to the southeast will see a threat of severe thunderstorms. Instability will develop during the late morning and afternoon as the warm frontal boundary crosses the southeastern half of Illinois. although the possibility of a few tornadoes in the region from the lower Mississippi Valley through the lower Ohio Valley region will be a concern as well.
1146 AM CST MON FEB 1 2016 FOR 18Z TAFS /ISSUED 1033 AM CST MON FEB 1 2016/ A RATHER MILD DAY IS UNDERWAY ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY, WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. AT THE SFC, A COLD FRONT EXTENDED SSW TO NNE ACROSS NRN MS AND AL THIS MORNING, WITH AN AREA OF SHOWERS RIDING EASTWARD ALONG IT, MAINLY AFFECTING CNTRL AND ERN TN. MODELS PROG THIS COLD FRONT TO SLOWLY SAG THROUGH OUR AREA INTO THE AFTERNOON, WITH OFF/ON SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING.
MODELS INDICATE FAIRLY LIGHT SFC WINDS WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE.
451 PM EST MON FEB 1 2016 A COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTH OF PENNSYLVANIA THIS EVENING. THEN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH LATER TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK WEST OF PENNSYLVANIA DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
The primary forecast concern will be wind speeds this afternoon and the timing of a Pacific cold front this evening. For tonight, A pacific cold front will move east across West Central Texas.
SHORT WAVE TROUGH OFF THE NW COAST WILL WEAKEN AS IT COMES INLAND TONIGHT AND HEADS SE TOWARD NEVADA.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING. STILL WATCHING THE MODELS TRACK A SIGNIFICANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES TOWARD THE MISSOURI/IOWA/ILLINOIS BORDERS.
217 PM EST MON FEB 1 2016 A COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTH OF THE AREA LATER TODAY AND OVERNIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK WEST OF PENNSYLVANIA DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
A DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM AND TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL NEAR THE FORECAST AREA BY THE END OF THE TAF FORECAST. ACTUAL CDFNT WILL LAG WHAT APPEARS TO BE A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA ON TUE. DRIER AIR WILL ADVECT IN ON THE WESTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE PRE- FRONTAL TROUGH. WITH THE PUSH OF MUCH COOLER AIR ARRIVING ON NW FLOW TUE NIGHT. MOSTLY CLEAR AND COOL EXPECTED WED THROUGH FRI AS DEEP UPPER TROF TRANSLATES THROUGH THE CENTRAL/EASTERN CONUS AND HIGHER PRESSURE PREVAILS AT THE SFC. STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW EXPECTED TONIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA.
An upper level low will swing on in from the southwest through the overnight. For snow amounts, have the highest snow amounts from Scott City to WaKeeney. Focusing farther south, a modified warm sector will spread northward on the south side of the low. Beyond tomorrow, the synoptic low moves off to the northeast and weak high pressure with some downslope moves in.
TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS HAS DEEP TROF ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS WITH VIGOROUS CLOSED LOW CENTERED OVER LAS VEGAS. HIGH PRESSURE IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE DAKOTAS WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS AREA. WEAK INVERTED TROF EXTENDS NORTH INTO SOUTHEAST WY. UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER THE ROCKIES WILL OPEN UP SLIGHTLY AS IT SHIFTS EAST. VIGOROUS CLOSED LOW WILL LIFT FROM CENTRAL KANSAS INTO THE GREAT LAKES AREA BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.
INLAND TAF SITES WILL SEE CEILINGS GO DOWN OVERNIGHT TO MVFR/IFR LEVELS UNTIL A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
THE FRONT SHOULD LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT LATER TONIGHT WITH ALL OF THE MID SOUTH RETURNING TO WARMER TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER HUMIDITY LEVELS. /ISSUED 426 AM CST MON FEB 1 2016/ 4 AM CST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A COLD FRONT ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THE I40 CORRIDOR.
Warm front will surge northward on Tuesday morning and attempt to destabilize the atmosphere for sfc-based convective development for the afternoon hours.
THE LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE SNOW ENDING AND WINDS FALLING OFF.
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL BEGIN TO LIFT OUT TO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT. THE AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO MOISTEN LATER TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY BEHIND THE RETREATING WARM FRONT. DEWPOINTS SHOULD RISE BACK INTO THE LOW TO MIDDLE 60S AREAWIDE BY LATE TUESDAY MORNING. RIDGING IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING UPPER LOW SHOULD KEEP THE WARM SECTOR WELL CAPPED THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. THE GREATEST SEVERE WEATHER RISK SHOULD OCCUR EARLY IN THE STORM EVOLUTION PROCESS AS STORMS FORM AND QUICKLY TRANSITION TO A QLCS-SQUALL LINE WITH BOWING SEGMENTS AND EMBEDDED MESOCYCLONE CIRCULATIONS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LINE.
906 AM MST MON FEB 1 2016 DEEP UPPER LOW OVER WESTERN NEW MEXICO THIS MORNING. AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS INTENSE UPPER LOW NEAR LAS VEGAS MOVING INTO NORTHERN AZ. AS THE LOW MOVES THROUGH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TODAY WE WILL SEE WEAK ISENTROPIC ASCENT SPREAD OVER NORTH CENTRAL WY. TEMPS TODAY WILL BE COOLER THAN WE HAVE SEEN IN AWHILE WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S IN OUR WEST TO MID 30S IN OUR EAST. ANY IMPACTS FROM UPPER LOW TO OUR SOUTH WILL END EARLY TUESDAY AS THE STORM EVOLVES OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS.
THIS EVENING WILL BE MOSTLY DRY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURES BUILDS INTO THE AREA.
A VIGOROUS UPPER LOW WILL TRACK OFF TO THE EAST OF UTAH THIS AFTERNOON. A DEEP VIGOROUS UPPER LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 4 CORNERS THIS MORNING TRACKING RAPIDLY EAST. LIGHT SNOW SHOULD FILL IN AGAIN ALONG THE WASATCH FRONT FROM ABOUT OGDEN SOUTH AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE UPSLOPE BUT DONT SEE MUCH MORE SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION SO WILL LIKELY CANCEL THE WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WASATCH FRONT SHORTLY. SNOW IN THE EAST SHOULD DIMINISH ONCE THE LOW LEVELS GO NORTHWEST THERE AS WELL AS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH.
351 PM EST MON FEB 1 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER ON TUESDAY WITH MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.
THE SURFACE ANALYSIS IS SHOWING A WEAK TROUGH IN THE AREA. THIS FRONT WILL BEGIN TO PUSH NORTHWARD BY EARLY TOMORROW AS A WARM FRONT. GOOD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COMBINED WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL HELP INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR SCT SHOWERS TOMORROW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS INCREASES ACROSS THE NW CWFA TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.