Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
935 PM EDT Thu Jun 23 2022 A cold front will drop southeast across the region tonight. High pressure will extend into Virginia and the Carolinas from the northeast through the weekend.
Today, the highest coverage of storms will be across the northern and eastern half of Arizona, including portions of the Phoenix metro. An uptick in activity is expected across the lower deserts of south-central Arizona this afternoon and evening. SPC mesoanalysis is showing greater than 1500 J/kg of DCAPE in the lower deserts of south-central Arizona.
/20/ (This evening through Friday Night) The massive upper level high responsible for the scorching temperatures across the southern Plains and deep South today will remain in place Friday, with a subtle drift back to the east, placing the ridge axis comfortably across the ArkLaTex throughout the afternoon and early evening hours.
BW Chattanooga Airport, TN 93 72 90 71 92 / 20 20 30 10 20 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 91 71 90 71 91 / 10 10 30 10 30 Oak Ridge, TN 91 70 90 70 92 / 10 10 30 10 30 Tri Cities Airport, TN 89 67 88 66 89 / 10 10 30 10 20.
305 AM EDT Fri Jun 24 2022 High pressure will dominate the forecast across the mid-Atlantic states into North Carolina through the weekend.
313 AM EDT Fri Jun 24 2022 High pressure will result in warm and dry conditions today.
1106 PM EDT Thu Jun 23 2022 High pressure will build across the Commonwealth into the first part of the upcoming weekend.
138 AM EDT Fri Jun 24 2022 High pressure will build across the Commonwealth into the first part of the upcoming weekend.
A slow moving cold front is across the west and southwest sections.
437 AM EDT Fri Jun 24 2022 High pressure will build across the Commonwealth into the first part of the upcoming weekend.
1141 PM CDT Thu Jun 23 2022 Currently have a large area of upper high pressure centered over TX with a compact upper trough approaching the Great Basin. This will allow a cold front to sink south across the Central and Southern Plains. The bigger story will finally be some cooler temps.
Effects of persistent ridging reflected in temperature curves today as readings return to familiar above-normal territory with MaxTs peaking in the upper 80s, approaching 90F for the more urbanized locations.
/issued 940 PM CDT Thu Jun 23 2022/ Forecast is on track tonight as high pressure remains in control. Only small update was to adjust overnight lows to fall in line with current observations, mainly along the I-10 corridor where temperatures are currently warmer than previously forecasted.
327 AM EDT Fri Jun 24 2022 High pressure will be in control through the weekend.
as high pressure remains in place. /issued 940 PM CDT Thu Jun 23 2022/ Forecast is on track tonight as high pressure remains in control. Only small update was to adjust overnight lows to fall in line with current observations, mainly along the I-10 corridor where temperatures are currently warmer than previously forecasted.
212 AM MDT Fri Jun 24 2022 DISCUSSION: Cold front is currently moving through the area early this morning and will move to the east of the forecast area this morning. Upper level trough will pass through the area tonight which will keep the NW winds going and chances for showers will linger mainly in the south.
329 AM EDT Fri Jun 24 2022 High pressure will be in control through the weekend.
With convection stretching all along the KS/NE border the threat for the low level jet to bring spotty showers and thunderstorms to northwest IA is diminishing.
Today Currently early this morning, an upper ridge is centered over the central U.
Although this will advect a drier and slightly cooler airmass into the region, modest boundary layer mixing and a gradual increase in high- level clouds will work in conjunction with each other to prevent optimal radiational cooling. Thus, we have made only minor adjustments to the previous temperature forecast, as lows should end up in the lower 60s across the northeastern corner of the forecast area and mid 60s elsewhere.
The southeast is on the precipice of a pattern change, with the presiding Death Ridge beginning to retrograde and break down aloft. A weak frontal boundary riding along the eastern edge of the ridge will make its way across the FA today. Despite modest instability, given days of strong subsidence under the ridge, the brief impulse of moisture associated with its passage will only provide enough forcing for some isolated showers and storms through this evening.
Otherwise, as this front moves northward today, much warmer air in the lower and mid-troposphere by this afternoon will result in a return to the Summer sizzle with focus for diurnal convection mainly north of the area.
High pressure will provide us with quiet weather tonight. The surface cold front is to the south of the region, and we will be sitting under high pressure and northerly flow for the remainder of this short term period. Temperatures are cooler (and feel cooler) than the past few days with overnight lows in the mid-60s.
Lingering showers near the I70 corridor will lift to the northeast remaining very isolated in nature due to a passing mid level trough across norther portions of the state. Dry northwest flow aloft for most of the CWA will deepen a leeside trough over eastern Colorado overnight into Friday.
The upper high will remain just to our east but will push far enough westward to allow for a hot day with highs near or over 100 area wide.
This is in response to a short wave trough this will be passing across northern CO late this morning into early this evening.
1245 AM CDT Fri Jun 24 2022 (This evening through Friday) Temperatures were once again in the upper 90s to low 100s this afternoon as a 590dam mid-level ridge continues to be the dominant feature across the region. Tomorrow, the ridge will strengthen slightly and the airmass will dry out somewhat.
Additional thunderstorm development is expected late tonight with the advancement of a few embedded mid- level waves while a cold front moves east across the forecast area.
1009 PM CDT Thu Jun 23 2022 Summary: Warm temps will round out the rest of the workweek with cooler temps expected this weekend.
The expanding upper ridge will become solidified directly overhead today leading to the warmest temperatures of the summer so far with many locations pushing 100 degrees this afternoon. Surface winds will also begin to increase some today in advance of the much anticipated cold front moving toward the area for the weekend, which could ease the heat stress impacts somewhat though it will still be very hot.
232 AM CDT Fri Jun 24 2022 Early this morning, high pressure was centered east of the area near Toledo, Ohio. Aloft, ridging was starting to break down. Cloudy day with slightly cooler temps. Discussion: Largescale ridge breaks down today as SW flow takes over. With the ridge still in place, expect thunder to be more rare as we go through the rest of the morning. The wave will lead to shear in the low levels associated with the LLJ.
157 AM EDT Fri Jun 24 2022 A stalled frontal boundary along the Blue Ridge this afternoon meander in this area into early Friday before dissipating.
With the abundant moisture, afternoon high temperatures will be near or a bit cooler than average.
1145 PM EDT Thu Jun 23 2022 High pressure overhead and a very dry atmosphere will support clear skies and light winds through Friday morning. A cool pocket in the lower third of the atmosphere (+10-C at 850-mb) is temporarily tempering temperatures with a seasonably dry surface layer. While the overall geopotential field does not dramatically change over the course of the next day and a half, the lower-troposphere warms appreciably (approaching +20-C at 850-mb) - which will support a run toward 90-F on Friday.
115 AM EDT Fri Jun 24 2022 A cold front will drop southeast across the region overnight. High pressure will extend into Virginia and the Carolinas from the northeast through the weekend.
Highs pressure builds to our south this weekend allowing warmer and more humid air to move in with mainly sunny conditions.
Cold front extends through far western North Dakota into southeast Montana. Cold front slides into northeast Wyoming/northwest South Dakota early this morning and will move east of the Black Hills by early afternoon.
(Today and tonight) An upper ridge will result in hotter and dry conditions for today. Breezy southwest winds will also advect dry and hotter air in from western Texas, as most of our area should see triple digit high temperatures of 100- 105 degrees, with the higher values across our west. Did go slightly warmer than the cooler biased NBM for this afternoons MaxT using the CONSShort. Although the drier air coming in from the southwest will keep the heat index values more negligible across most of our area, expecting lower 70s dewpoint to remain across eastcentral into southeast Oklahoma where the heat index will be the highest and easily 105 degrees.
331 AM EDT Fri Jun 24 2022 The very hot weather as of late looks to be gradually ratcheting down as our persistent upper ridge begins to break down and retreat westward.
113 AM CDT Fri Jun 24 2022 (This evening through Friday Night) The massive upper level high responsible for the scorching temperatures across the southern Plains and deep South today will remain in place Friday, with a subtle drift back to the east, placing the ridge axis comfortably across the ArkLaTex throughout the afternoon and early evening hours.
1229 AM CDT Fri Jun 24 2022 Summary: Warm temps will round out the rest of the workweek with cooler temps expected this weekend.
(Today) An upper-level ridge of high pressure centered over AR/OK will remain the dominant feature in place across the Mid South and Tennessee Valley today. The end result will be another very warm and dry day as strong subsidence from the ridge will suppress most diurnal convection once again. This feature will serve as a focus for scattered convection on the eastern edge of the ridge.
Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb trough in the northern Rockies 00z Sat with a ridge across the south and upper Great Lakes region. The ridge gets pushed to the lower Great Lakes 12z Sat while the trough moves into the northern plains and then moves into the upper Great Lakes 12z Sun. With the upper trough moving through on Sun, did put in some slight chance pops in the afternoon and evening for some instability showers that could pop up. In the extended, the GFS and ECMWF show a 500 mb ridge in the western U. 12z Mon with a trough in the Great Lakes region. Another trough arrives and affects the upper Great Lakes 12z Thu into 12z Fri.
High pressure returns Friday night into Saturday, starting a gradual warming trend.
A cold front will then approach the region from the west later tonight into Saturday. Therefore, will lower POPs late tonight and hold off precipitation into Saturday given the slower movement of the cold front. The slower pace of the cold front will bleed into Saturday as the northeastern portion of the region should remain relatively dry for much of Saturday morning, with POPs increasing as the day wears on. Highs on Saturday will be much cooler given abundant cloud cover and precipitation, only rising into the middle to upper 70s across the north with highs in the lower 80s across east-central Wisconsin away from Lake Michigan.
613 AM EDT Fri Jun 24 2022 High pressure will be in control through the weekend.
Showers & storms should rapidly diminish overnight with significantly cooler temperatures working into the region in the wake of a strong cold- frontal passage. Highs may be some 15 deg cooler than Friday as a result.
630 AM EDT Fri Jun 24 2022 High pressure will result in warm and dry conditions today. The high will extend into the region on Saturday as temperatures and humidity begin to rise some.
Unfortunately, the heat will get turned up a notch today into tomorrow as the upper level ridge centered over the Southern Plains shifts eastward and heights build across Middle Tennessee. This will allow for some widely scattered showers and storms to pop up by late morning and especially in the afternoon along and east of I-65, with the highest precip chances in our Plateau counties. West of I-65 where the upper ridge will dominate and keep precip chances nil, highs will again increase a couple of degrees with mid to upper 90s expected.
621 AM CDT Fri Jun 24 2022 (Today and tonight) The mid level ridge will remain anchored over the area today, with hot temperatures persisting. Afternoon highs today will be a little warmer than yesterday, with most areas seeing between 101 and 104 degrees.
(Today through Saturday afternoon) A broad upper ridge remains in control centered across the southern Plains, supporting mostly quiet summertime weather this weekend across west Texas and Southeast New Mexico. Subsidence from the ridge will limit precipitation chances to the Guadalupe Mountains and far northwestern Eddy County both this afternoon and Saturday afternoon. Low temperatures tonight will stay mild, falling into the low to mid 70s. As the center of the ridge starts to slide eastward some on Saturday, tomorrow's afternoon temperatures will peak about a degree cooler than this afternoon.
755 AM EDT Fri Jun 24 2022 Anticyclonic flow will support a large anticyclone over Southeast Michigan today and tonight. Effects of persistent ridging reflected in temperature curves today as readings return to familiar above-normal territory with MaxTs peaking in the upper 80s, approaching 90F for the more urbanized locations. Ridge amplification underway Saturday with northeastward expansion emanating from ArkLaTex height max. 50 inches) reflected by ENS/NAEFS IVT within the 90th percentile, but the better forcing/dynamics lag toward the west, co-located with an inbound cold front.
Additional thunderstorm development is expected late tonight with the advancement of a few embedded mid- level waves while a cold front moves east across the forecast area. Cooler and drier air filters in behind the cold front bringing with highs on Saturday generally in the 80s.
High pressure is centered over Lower Michigan this morning. The high will drift east today and warmer air will advect north. Another cold front will move across the region.
703 AM EDT Fri Jun 24 2022 High pressure will build across the Commonwealth into the first part of the upcoming weekend.
644 AM CDT Fri Jun 24 2022 (Today and tonight) An upper ridge will result in hotter and dry conditions for today. Breezy southwest winds will also advect dry and hotter air in from western Texas, as most of our area should see triple digit high temperatures of 100- 105 degrees, with the higher values across our west. Did go slightly warmer than the cooler biased NBM for this afternoons MaxT using the CONSShort. Although the drier air coming in from the southwest will keep the heat index values more negligible across most of our area, expecting lower 70s dewpoint to remain across eastcentral into southeast Oklahoma where the heat index will be the highest and easily 105 degrees.
Friday: Upper trough moves across the northern Rockies as a smaller piece of energy kicks off into the central Plains in the form of a low- amplitude perturbation. Once a cold front moves in from the northwest this evening, that should help tamp down the potential for tornadic spin-ups with a storm or two. Later on as the cold front approaches, storms will be more elevated near and just behind the cold front.
Early this morning, high pressure was centered east of the area near Toledo, Ohio. Aloft, ridging was starting to break down. Cloudy day with slightly cooler temps. Discussion: Largescale ridge breaks down today as SW flow takes over. With the ridge still in place, expect thunder to be more rare as we go through the rest of the morning. The wave will lead to shear in the low levels associated with the LLJ. With the shear in the low levels, we may be able to mix some stronger winds down to the surface. 2) Cooler early in the week, followed by a warming trend. A cold front will be the focus for storm redevelopment Saturday afternoon and evening. The suite of CAMS and synoptic models vary in storm coverage/intensity in the high CAPE/modest shear environment.
The ridge nudges back north on Saturday morning and we go right back to the 90s across the area. The KC Metro can expect to see highs near 95 and far southern parts of our CWA may even be a few degrees warmer. The good news is that this heat will not last long as a cold front moves into the area by the afternoon.
936 AM EDT Fri Jun 24 2022 Weak high pressure will build over the region through early Saturday, then move offshore during the second half of the weekend.
Upper level ridge is going to be building over the west today into the weekend. Highs today will be very similar to yesterday but we will see slight warming over the weekend mainly over the northern part of the area as the ridge amplifies.
/Issued 331 AM EDT Fri Jun 24 2022/ The very hot weather as of late looks to be gradually ratcheting down as our persistent upper ridge begins to break down and retreat westward. On Saturday, the center of the upper ridge continues retrograding westward. The higher coverage looks to be more favored across the western half of the area where the inverted trough axis associated with the aforementioned low will extend.
957 AM EDT Fri Jun 24 2022 A beautiful Friday morning is taking place in the Florida Keys with mostly sunny skies and temperatures in the lower 80s. The Florida Keys are currently in between synoptics features, high pressure to our left, a decaying frontal boundary to our north, and a trough to the west.
1054 AM EDT Fri Jun 24 2022 High pressure will build across the Commonwealth into the first part of the upcoming weekend.
Meanwhile, at the surface, an associated cold frontal boundary is progged to pass through the forecast area. A slightly slower progression of the cold front may shift initial storm development a bit further west, while a slightly quicker progression may shift them a bit further east.
1004 AM EDT Fri Jun 24 2022 High pressure will result in warm and dry conditions today. The high will extend into the region on Saturday as temperatures and humidity begin to rise some.
The ridge axis aloft, which helped keep convection at bay yesterday, will shift east of the area today with the flow aloft becoming southwesterly. Later tonight a cold front will be driven southeast through the area by a potent upper low that will be tracking eastward across southern Canada. Quiet weather is expected this weekend, and cooler as well behind the front.
A weak midlevel perturbation rounding the northern edge of the upper ridge has assisted convection in persisting overnight. High temps this afternoon are somewhat uncertain as latest guidance is trending cooler where midlevel cloud cover lingers over far eastern KS- resulting in upper 80s. Towards north central KS, temps quickly warm into the low and middle 90s with heat indices from 100-103 degrees in the afternoon. An upper trough in conjunction with a strong cold front enters the northern plains this evening, kicking off a line of convection as far south as central NE late tonight. Looking ahead towards Saturday, an upper trough axis will move into the central plains with a trailing cold front draping across northeast Kansas.
322 AM MDT Fri Jun 24 2022 A cold front has made its way through all but the far southeast early this morning. This front will provide a cooler day with highs around 15 degrees below highs of yesterday. Expect high temperatures in the lower to mid 70s. North to northeast winds will increase today as the cooler air behind the front settles in. Heights will lower today as an upper trough swings across northern Montana. Saturday will be a dry day with northwest flow taking over and the back side of the trough passage. Temperatures Saturday will be even cooler than today, with highs around 70 degrees.
A slow moving cold front is across the west and southwest sections. Today Through Saturday Night An upper ridge continues to be centered over the southern U. with upper troughs in the northwest and northeast. The upper ridge will build eastward through Saturday and the upper trough in the northwest will move through the northern Rockies and into the northern Plains by Saturday. The upper ridge will be centered over Arkansas Saturday. A weak cold front continues in southwest Arkansas this morning. Rain chances diminish Saturday as the high pressure takes hold of the state. This will result in warmer temperatures.
359 AM MDT Fri Jun 24 2022 Cooler air will move into Central MT, with another round of showers and thunderstorms possible this afternoon and evening.
High pressure will remain overhead today and tomorrow, so the overall weather pattern stays relatively the same.
Warm and dry conditions are expected today and Saturday, with the 500 hPa ridge centered over north Texas.
640 AM CDT Fri Jun 24 2022 Showers persist in northwestern parts of the state behind a cold frontal boundary. Meanwhile, at the surface, an associated cold frontal boundary is progged to pass through the forecast area. A slightly slower progression of the cold front may shift initial storm development a bit further west, while a slightly quicker progression may shift them a bit further east.
Sprinkles may form over the northeast Nevada corner, otherwise mostly sunny and warmer conditions will prevail. For Saturday, a diffused Pacific trough moves across Nevada that will trigger isolated high based storms over central Nevada and the Ruby Mountains.
(Today and tonight) The mid level ridge will remain anchored over the area today, with hot temperatures persisting. Afternoon highs today will be a little warmer than yesterday, with most areas seeing between 101 and 104 degrees.
However, warmer temperatures aloft (-6 to -7C) will limit the threat of hail, though small hail cannot be ruled out.
647 AM EDT Fri Jun 24 2022 High pressure will build across the Commonwealth into the first part of the upcoming weekend.
Otherwise, as this front moves northward today, much warmer air in the lower and mid-troposphere by this afternoon will result in a return to the Summer sizzle with focus for diurnal convection mainly north of the area. An upper trof moving across south central Canada/northern Plains on Saturday will see the associated surface cold front sliding southward across Kansas.
A secondary lobe of energy associated with the upper level trough will be impacting the Northern Rockies today. The main low pressure system will be moving along the Canadian border causing light shower activity across northwest Montana, especially around Glacier National Park. The winds today will start off out of the west and steadily turn to a northerly component after the passage of the low pressure system. Cooler air will be ushered into the region keep temperatures below normal for this time of year.
640 AM EDT Fri Jun 24 2022 High pressure will dominate the forecast across the mid-Atlantic states into North Carolina through the weekend.
VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours with high pressure in control. /issued 353 AM CDT Fri Jun 24 2022/ SHORT TERM (Today through Saturday): Strong mid-level ridging centered over the southern Plains will continue to provide subsidence across deep south Texas and the Rio Grande Valley through period. Lows tonight will range from the low 70s across the northern ranchlands and Brush Country, the mid to upper 70s across the Rio Grande Valley and around 80 degrees at the beaches. At the surface, broad high pressure across the Gulf of Mexico will continue to support a steady onshore flow. An area of low pressure is expected to form across the Plains today.
Warm to hot afternoon temperatures will continue across the interior while cooler temperatures will occur at the coast. The marine layer remains compressed under lower level thermal ridging, marine layer depth varying only slightly from 700 feet at Bodega Bay to 1,000 feet at Fort Ord per profiler data. Some cooler air filtering inland, though again will be tough for it reach far inland due to a compressed marine layer temperature inversion.