Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
After this storm passes by mid-week, we will remain in fairly cool air with 500mb heights staying quite low as the longwave trough remains in place across the eastern two-thirds of the CONUS. These winds will then gradually shift to the southwest after 06z Monday as a trough of low pressure at the surface begins to develop along the lee of the Rockies.
Have gone with a faster onset time with the pops and adjusted to keep the highest pops farther south. Best instability remains central and south at this time as the warm front lingers south of Columbus to Vidalia. Main upper system will drop into the lower MS valley this afternoon and continue into the southern Appalachians tonight. The closed upper low will continue to push across the Appalachians on Monday with extensive wrap around clouds and showers through most of the day.
Lapse rates will steepen quickly with time today as the low approaches. The exact position of the deformation field this evening still remains uncertain with the GFS a bit further northwest with the low track. The precip area should shift east of the area completely by Monday evening with a ridge quickly moving in and diminishing flow.
413 PM EST Sun Jan 22 2017 High pressure will build north of the area tonight.
158 PM MST Sun Jan 22 2017 Upper level ridging is in place over the SW US and building east into the Central Rockies. Subsidence and a deep dry air mass within the eastern extend of this ridge extends across our CWA. A strong upper low is off the Pacific Northwest coast with diffluent flow between these upper level features over the Great Basin. WAA increases with south- southwest low level flow (east of lee trough), and this will result in above normal high temperatures.
1041 AM CST Sun Jan 22 2017 Upper low currently sliding e-se across southern Arkansas this morning. With the forecast area now on the backside of the upper low.
1216 PM CST Sun Jan 22 2017 Scattered showers continue developing north of the I-20 corridor early this afternoon in response to a upper level trough moving ovhd. Strong cold front currently moving through our NE TX terminals with strong pressure gradient ahead of and behind the boundary. /issued 1131 AM CST Sun Jan 22 2017/ To adjust the chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms around the upper closed low pressure system over Eastern parts of the forecast area. Upper level closed low pressure system continued to spin over Northeast Louisiana and Southeast Arkansas with colder air aloft helping to produce showers and maybe isolated thunderstorms across Southeast Oklahoma, extreme Northeast Texas, Southwest and South Central Arkansas and North Louisiana in its wake.
Monday wills start out cloudy, but the clouds will clear from west to east through the late morning into the afternoon hours as upper ridging begins to build in over the area. Highs will range from the mid 50s in the north to the low 60s in the south.
For mid morning update have added patchy freezing drizzle through much of the area as some area webcams are showing a little glaze, and a few obs have reported a little ice. The freezing drizzle should be over and have removed any mention of that.
MVRF possibly IFR conditions will return after 01-02z as a cold front sweeps south across the area, along with gusty northwest winds. Showers and possibly some isolated thunderstorm activity is likely across much of the area this afternoon into the evening as the low passes over the area. Warmer moist air being wrapped back into the low and quickly cooling mid levels should be enough to keep at least a few hundred J/kg of MUCAPE present through the middle of the day. By the evening, we'll be on the back side of the low with cooling throughout the atmospheric column, and any precip by that point will be rain showers. A tight pressure gradient on the back side of the low will bring in breezy north winds after sunset.
The combination of snow and liquid refreezing on roadways tonight will make for slick travel conditions, especially during the Monday morning commute. In addition to low visibility, freezing fog will certainly not help the already slick road conditions.
Otherwise, the low clouds and fog continue. The fog is not as widespread as it was this time 24 hr ago possibly due to weak westerly flow on southern edge of the low. Only light precip expected but with temps falling to the lower 30s, there could be some icy spots on untreated roads, sidewalks and parking lots. More normal conditions with cooler temps and NW wind LES are then expected through the rest of the week. Expect N to NW winds to 25 kts late Wed through the end of the week as low pressure over the central Plains moves toward eastern Canada and colder air returns to the Lk Superior region.
1136 AM CST Sun Jan 22 2017 Update includes the addition of freezing drizzle moving into north central SD later this morning/early this afternoon, from BIS. An area of low pressure over North Dakota will bring westerly winds and somewhat drier air into the CWA today. Will the low clouds and fog come back again tonight? A majority of the models suggest the fog will finally leave the CWA as much drier air moves into the region from the west. A deep trough currently off the west coast will send upper level energy into the Central Rockies by tonight. The upper level jet support will cause the development of a lee side trough over the front range of the Rockies by Monday.
An area of low pressure will rapidly deepen across Alabama and northern Georgia late this afternoon into the evening, and a cold front will continue to surge eastward. Isolated to scattered showers are forecast to wrap around the area of low pressure overnight tonight. Cooler temperatures are forecast, with lows in the 50s. Monday: Large area of low pressure will move across the southeast on Monday, and breezy conditions are expected.
306 PM CST Sun Jan 22 2017 The upper level low pressure system responsible for our winds and showers/virga yesterday has pulled well east, and is now creating a massive severe weather outbreak across the southeastern U. Tomorrow will see brief upper ridging pass over the region which will turn winds aloft and at the surface southwesterly. As such, we will see the warmest day of the week with highs well above normal in the lower 70s for all but the southwestern TX Panhandle, which may hang on to the upper 60s.
Low pressure will continue to lift northeast of the CWA today, with expected clearing skies tonight. Low clouds/patchy freezing fog have continued today and see little reason to remove it at least for this evening. Eventually, as a trough deepens across the Western U.
158 PM MST Sun Jan 22 2017 Deep upper low will fracture and eject toward the region in the period, supporting cyclogenesis over the central plains and increasing chances for accumulating snow across the region. Forecast models continue to struggle with the details of this system given a fracturing wave and tendencies to close an upper low over the northern plains, not to mention the track of this potential closing upper low. There are a few model members indicating the potential for some light freezing drizzle there, late tonight into the Monday morning.
Another Storm to bring heavy wind driven snow to the Continental The upper low over OK/TX will pull away to the east with ridging expected over the region this afternoon. and warmer temperatures to most of the region.
236 PM CST Sun Jan 22 2017 Upper low continues to track east-southeast and had entered west central Mississippi this afternoon, with the fringes of the associated precipitation echoes down near the Ohio River. Not really looking for much with this feature, except to linger the clouds a bit longer, until a narrow high pressure ridge builds east into the Mississippi Valley and breaks the clouds up a bit in the afternoon. While temperatures on Monday will still reach the mid 40s, northwest winds of 10-20 mph will make it feel cooler.
424 PM EST Sun Jan 22 2017 Low pressure tracking east through the southern U.
129 PM EST Sun Jan 22 2017 Numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon and continue into this evening associated with strong low pressure. The low will begin to lift north of the region Monday.
321 PM CST Sun Jan 22 2017 Wound up low pressure system over the Deep South continues to sling moisture back up into the Mid Mississippi Valley. A weak ridge will build over the area on Monday ahead of the next storm system over the Great Plains. With stubborn clouds and northwest flow, temperatures will be a little cooler than they've been recently, but still well above normal in the mid and upper 40s. A deep long wave trof over the western U.
Stacked system is currently centered over SW Arkansas with the warm front now north of Middle TN. Shower activity with the warm front has cleared the area as well. The upper low will track east across central MS, AL, and GA through 00z. The southern portion which will be closer to the low will have the highest rain chances through 00z. Current MVFR to VFR conditions will eventually erode to IFR to MVFR conditions later this evening as potent low pressure center moves across the deep south. CKV may be too far north of the low to see much shower activity.
It is becoming a bit more apparent now that the upper level low that will push east from the southern Plains today will stay a bit farther south than was expected yesterday at this time. High pressure (not of arctic or Canadian origin) will then build east into the region for the remainder of the short term, with dry conditions and temps remaining at or above normal.
329 PM CST Sun Jan 22 2017 The rain is diminishing quickly across far eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas as the upper low over Mississippi continues to move quickly east away from the area.
While some moisture will eventually make it north as the parent low pressure system begins to track up the coast, the lessened rainfall would not be as much of a concern as once thought. Thus, will reintroduce pops into the area again tonight as the low tracks up the coast after 00z.
Snow has begun to fall in SE Oregon and along the ID/NV border in the southwest flow of an upper low off the PACNW coast. Impressive upper low off the WA/OR coast will remain nearly stationary today. Precipitation along a front associated with the low will drive inland and reach SE Oregon this morning and SW Idaho this afternoon. The higher elevations of SW Idaho are expected to receive 2-5 inches. The upper low off the WA/OR coast will move S-SE off the Washington coast tonight through Monday.
330 PM CST Sun Jan 22 2017 The main low pressure system driving the severe weather and high wind field was occluding over eastern arkansas near memphis this afternoon with some cold pool instability producing patches of high based light rain. This should begin the easing of high winds as advection neutralizes and base of sharp trough moves through.
500 PM EST Sun Jan 22 2017 Numerous showers and thunderstorms, some severe, are expected into this evening associated with strong low pressure. The low will begin to lift north of the region Monday.
The latest high resolution guidance confirms the current trends in our region, with only the Ohio River showers lingering through the evening, then weak shower development overnight across the eastern half of the area as the low moves due east toward Georgia/South Carolina. On Monday, as the low moves east, winds will become more northerly and with gusts over 20 mph, will easily push colder air into the region. High temperatures will only be perhaps 5 degrees warmer than the morning lows, and many locations will see temperatures falling during the afternoon.
Warmer on Monday as winds swing around to the southwest.
Elsewhere snow was bring reported in the Yakima and Kittitas Valley and there was some freezing rain the Lower Columbia Basin zones.
Stacked low pressure center over central Arkansas is expected to move eastward along the TN border with MS- AL-GA before lifting NE along the spine of the Appalachians by Monday morning. 5 inches with locally higher amounts are still possible tonight and Monday as this low drifts NE and Gulf/Atlantic moisture continues to be pumped into the region. Chattanooga Airport, TN 65 49 53 38 / 90 70 50 20 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 66 49 54 41 / 90 90 80 60 Oak Ridge, TN 65 49 54 41 / 90 90 80 60 Tri Cities Airport, TN 64 47 53 40 / 70 100 90 70.
Skies are mostly clear and a check of the high mountains web cams indicates the light snow is over up there. Flow aloft will increase out of the northwest as a ridge moves in from the west. Clearing skies over the plains and gusty northwest surface winds mixing down will allow for temperatures to be slightly warmer than yesterday. The gusty winds in the high country and foothills will be decreasing slightly this morning as gradients relax, though gusts to 35 mph may still occur through early afternoon. Flow aloft will then turn west-southwesterly and increase tonight as a jet streak helps dig a trough along the west coast. The initial moisture will push into the mountain this evening as the ridge axis is over eastern Colorado, with very weak QG lift in southwesterly flow at mountain top.
1044 AM MST Sun Jan 22 2017 Water vapor shows weak w/sw flow aloft across the nrn plains with trof moving onto the west coast. S/SW winds increase tonight across nern WY into the Blkhls as upper ridge axis shifts overhead.
Afternoon highs today will generally be in the 50s south of US 30 and cooler north due to persistent fog.
1133 AM CST Sun Jan 22 2017 Persistent stratus will continue to blanket much of the forecast area today, in the wake of slowly departing upper low. Lack of mid level/ice-bearing moisture layer evident on satellite and in forecast soundings, so drizzle/freezing drizzle should be the dominant precip type. The lack of stratus and light winds in our west should allow temperatures to fall into the lower 20s tonight, while eastern areas hold in the mid-upper 20s under the lingering stratus. As a longwave trough approaches the plains on Monday GFS/ECM are in fair agreement on strength and timing of the H5 low and associated surface features.
1111 AM EST Sun Jan 22 2017 A warm front will extend through the forecast area today ahead of strong low pressure. The low will be near the area tonight. The low will begin to lift north of the region Monday.
SHORT TERM (Tonight through Monday Night): North northwest winds will weaken through the night as a storm system over the lower Miss.
246 PM CST Sun Jan 22 2017 Current sfc observations show winds continuing to decrease across West Texas and Southeast New Mexico, w/strongest activity over the Big Bend/lwr Trans Pecos as the tail-end of strong winds rounding the base of the upper trough leaves the region. WV imagery shows the upper trough now over the Arklamiss, and subsidence on the backside of this feature has resulted in CAVU conditions across the region under NW flow aloft. To the west, an upper ridge will briefly build into the area Monday, w/thicknesses increasing and downslope warming pumping temps into the 70s most locations.
Broken line of supercells will sweep across the region through the afternoon, with a few long-lived tornadoes possible, as rapidly deepening low-pressure lifts into north-central Alabama. Conditions will improve after sunset with drier and cooler air moving in.
Patches of locally dense fog will persist into the afternoon, mainly along ridge tops, and will issue an SPS to account for this, given the patchy nature of the remaining fog. High pressure will start to build into the Plains States. The area of high pressure will then move across the region for Monday and Monday night for a couple of periods with quiet weather. The NAM solutions definitely looks to be out of line compared to the other models as it looks to be too flat with the short wave trough and never develops a closed upper level low.
327 PM CST Sun Jan 22 2017 An upper closed low has moved out of Texas and into the lower MS Valley while an upper level ridge builds into the southern Plains per water vapor imagery. The upper level ridge will lead to large scale subsidence across the Panhandles Monday. Winds will be breezy to windy Monday afternoon as the ridge begins to break down under southwesterly flow aloft.
409 PM EST Sun Jan 22 2017 Numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected into this evening associated with strong low pressure. The low will begin to lift north of the region Monday.
1202 PM CST Sun Jan 22 2017 A upper level trough is moving across the Red River Valley this morning and will continue to move east across southern Arkansas today.
Medium Surface ridging amplifies into wrn WI during the afternoon.
The main change this morning was to extend timing of patchy freezing fog based on observations. Maliawco Mist and fog overnight and into this morning with freezing temperatures have led to slick road conditions and hoar frost across many northeast Montana locations. The general trough of low pressure across the region will finally begin to lift north and east of the area later today, taking with it, the low clouds and fog over our central and eastern zones. A short period of upper-level ridging and no sensible weather is expected to move through the northeast Montana this evening through Monday morning.
340 PM CST Sun Jan 22 2017 Wound up low pressure system over the Deep South continues to sling moisture back up into the Mid Mississippi Valley. A weak ridge will build over the area on Monday ahead of the next storm system over the Great Plains. With stubborn clouds and northwest flow, temperatures will be a little cooler than they've been recently, but still well above normal in the mid and upper 40s.
will quickly transition to ridging aloft for Monday. This will allow for relatively calm winds and clear skies that will cause low temperatures to be much cooler tonight in the upper 30s over the Hill Country to mid 40s in the Coastal Plains. Southwest winds at 5-10 mph quickly return with warm air advection at 850-925 mb supporting high temperatures in the lower 70s for our northern counties to upper 70s and lower 80s in the Rio Grande Plains. The warmer temperatures over our southwestern counties will allow for elevated fire weather concerns due to minimum RH values decreasing to around 20 percent, but winds should be weak enough to mitigate any major fire weather concerns.
1229 PM EST Sun Jan 22 2017 Approaching low pressure system will result in deteriorating conditions at all terminals by later this evening. As the low matures and deepens into Monday morning, cigs will lower to IFR at all terminals reaching LIFR at KTYS.
253 PM EST Sun Jan 22 2017 Treacherous marine conditions expected tonight through Monday Early visible satellite photographs show mostly sunny skies with temperatures hovering around 80 degrees combined with uncomfortable dewpoint readings in the lower to mid 70s along the island chain. Surface wise, a complex and large area of low pressure extends from Louisiana to the Mississippi delta, while high pressure has slipped to our southeast. Hence, partly to mostly sunny skies, temperatures climbing into the lower to mid 80s with only generous dime pops will be carried for the balance of the day.
/issued 341 AM CST Sun Jan 22 2017/ (Today and Tonight) An upper closed low over northeast Texas this morning will continue to track rapidly eastward as upper ridging builds over the forecast area from the west. Otherwise, expect mostly sunny skies with afternoon highs in the low to mid 60s.
These gusty northwesterly winds are the result a strong pressure gradient from an intense low pressure system that had moved into the southeastern United States as of 3 PM.
1129 AM CST Sun Jan 22 2017 Mid- to upper-level trough continues to translate through the Northland this morning. Still, the thermal profile continues to be very close to the 0 degree C isotherm, so precipitation types continue to be a wintry mix, including drizzle/freezing drizzle/light snow and rain. With the potential for freezing precipitation and fog already present, travel conditions will continue to be hazardous this morning. The threat of slippery roads will diminish this afternoon as temperatures increase to above freezing. Temperatures look to continue their above-freezing trend, with highs today and Monday in the mid to upper 30s. There may be some light precipitation over the Arrowhead and forecast soundings show lack of deeper moisture so freezing drizzle/drizzle will be possible.
154 PM CST Sun Jan 22 2017 Will have some lingering shower chances this afternoon and tonight, but the main story for the short term is gusty north northwest winds and considerably cooler air. Our best chances of rain will be in southern portions of southeast Missouri and the Purchase Area late this afternoon into the evening, as another band attempts to push north while the upper low rotates through Mississippi and Alabama.
411 PM EST Sun Jan 22 2017 Low pressure tracking east through the southern U.
1146 AM EST Sun Jan 22 2017 Low pressure over the Southern Plains will move to the middle Atlantic Coast by Monday afternoon.
1212 PM CST Sun Jan 22 2017 Updated for the expiration of the High Wind Warning and Wind Advisory. Winds have slowly decreased areawide this morning, thus have allowed the High Wind Warning and Wind Advisory that were in effect across southern zones to expire as scheduled. /issued 334 AM CST Sun Jan 22 2017/ Upper trough passing over East TX this morning will continue to move away from the region through the day. As it does an upper ridge will build in from the west.
318 PM EST Sun Jan 22 2017 Low pressure over the Southern Plains will move to the middle Atlantic Coast by Monday afternoon.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 58 84 58 84 / 0 0 0 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 57 82 57 82 / 0 0 0 10 Oak Ridge, TN 56 81 57 82 / 0 0 0 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 52 76 54 79 / 0 10 10 10.
Due to dry soil conditons and calm winds, low temperatures Sunday morning were much cooler than expected. RH values will be in the low to mid 30s each afternoon, with light winds.
911 PM EDT Sun Oct 30 2016 A cold front with a weak area of low pressure that travels along it moves south of our area this evening with some showers over southern areas of New Hampshire and southwest Maine. High pressure will build in from the west later tonight and Monday. Low pressure will pass by well to our north midweek bringing warmer weather and scattered showers.
925 PM CDT Sun Oct 30 2016 The upper level ridge centered over Texas has continued to strengthen and build east this evening. The high will continue to keep the front from reaching the local area. Temperature wise, we were slightly warmer than what was forecast earlier but now we are slightly cooler but the blended models have tried to hold onto the warmer trend. Thinking that the clouds won't have much an impact on the lows and have kept them as is, if not a degree lower in some locations due to the quick cooling we have been seeing with the light winds/clear skies. The dry wx pattern will continue thru this period along with highs about 20 degrees above normal, thanks to strong upper ridging.
1243 AM EDT Mon Oct 31 2016 An upper level trough will cross the region overnight.
923 PM CDT Sun Oct 30 2016 Patchy/areas of fog, some of which may be dense, still seems possible across parts of the area later tonight/Monday morning despite the high clouds. The fog and stratus should dissipate fairly quickly late in the morning as wind speeds increase and the highest moisture content shifts northward. Although think much of the low clouds will dissipate, could see some linger across north/northwest Oklahoma.
1049 PM EDT Sun Oct 30 2016 An upper level trough will cross the region overnight.
It still looks windy over the higher mountains late tonight/early Monday morning with tightening mid level gradient. A Pacific system will move on shore and push the upper level ridge over the Central Rockies east of the region. Winds above ridge line will be strong late tonight and early Monday. Winds turn westerly Monday and will be breezy with gusts to 30 mph across the lower elevations. As far as temperatures go, it will be another mild day with readings in the lower to mid 70s across northeast Colorado.