Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
A cold front will increase winds through the day with rough waters expected across area lakes. Accumulations will be rather light, with a trace up to an inch of snow expected, with locally higher amounts up to 2-3" inches possible along the higher terrain around Yuba Pass and above 6500 feet in western Lassen County and the southern Warner Mountains of northeastern Lassen County. Winds will continue to increase through the afternoon ahead of the incoming cold front associated with this storm. Sierra ridgetops could gust as high as 80- 90 mph with valley gusts in the 30-40 mph range. A ridge of high pressure will begin to build over off the California coast Saturday, which will allow temperatures to increase to near- average through the weekend, lighten winds, and bring partly cloudy skies to the region.
Today Through Saturday Night Low stratus remains firmly in place across AR this morning on the backside of a departing upper level low. Tonight, high pressure will move into the Nrn Plains ushering colder and drier air into the region and any flurry activity should come to an end. Saturday, an upper ridge will eject into the Plains as a new trough moves ashore and into the Great Basin. Saturday night, the upper trough will move across the Rockies with large scale forcing for ascent overspreading the Srn Plains and MS Valley.
Stuck in a bit of a freezing fog rut as the Northland remains in the low flow portion of a deep upper trough.
Roads may be slick this morning, especially over bridges and elevated road surfaces, so be sure to take your time for the morning commute. Snow looks to redevelop over eastern areas tonight, continuing into Saturday as a weak area of low pressure keeps some forcing over the region. Winds begin to increase along the western foothills late Saturday night as high pressure builds in from the west.
Temperatures today will be a few degrees above normal but then a cold front will drop then back down to or below normal over the weekend. A warming trend will begin after the weekend as high pressure builds in across the area.
349 AM CST Fri Jan 8 2021 (Issued 349 AM CST Fri Jan 8 2021) Today through Saturday: High pressure over central Minnesota today should slowly drift toward the Central Plains tonight into Saturday. North winds from yesterday into last night have scoured out some of the low level moisture across the area, which has limited any fog formation. North/northeast winds in the low levels may tap into just enough of a delta T range to let the sprinkles/flurries occur.
622 AM CST Fri Jan 8 2021 Satellite this morning continues to show extensive fog and stratus across the region, with high pressure at the surface and weak flow through basically the entire troposphere.
500 AM MST Fri Jan 8 2021 Complex weak low pressure system expected to linger over South Dakota over the next day or so. Areas of low cloud and fog are also possible but some uncertainty of how far northwest it will extend with high pressure in Alberta pushing south. By Saturday afternoon the high pressure will be over the Dakotas with upper ridge returning to the northern Rockies.
352 AM CST Fri Jan 8 2021 Most early morning temperatures across the Midsouth are above freezing. Moderate cold air advection will likely result in 2-3 degrees of additional cooling before sunrise resulting in morning lows in the low to middle 30s. A strongly positively tilted trough will track out of the Central Plains approaching the Mississippi River near Memphis Saturday morning.
Temperatures will remain cold, with highs in the low 40s across the area.
A majority of the high-res models are depicting spotty, but barely measurable, qpf tonight. There is little or no indication of troughing below 500 mb, which will limit the deep forcing necessary for precip. Upper 20s will be forecast, but this may be on the low side.
Wagner (Issued 349 AM CST Fri Jan 8 2021) Today through Saturday: High pressure over central Minnesota today should slowly drift toward the Central Plains tonight into Saturday. North winds from yesterday into last night have scoured out some of the low level moisture across the area, which has limited any fog formation. North/northeast winds in the low levels may tap into just enough of a delta T range to let the sprinkles/flurries occur.
1055 AM MST Fri Jan 8 2021 Upper level low passing through the region this morning based on latest GOES water vapor imagery. Highest accumulation of up to a inch with locally higher along the Pine Ridge across Wyoming and Nebraska with under half an inch for Rawlins and Laramie area this morning. Forecast remains generally on track for descending upper level trough through the region. Given the localized terrain influences and forcing, model solutions in disagreement regarding the Pine Ridge from Niobrara County in Wyoming into Dawes County, Nebraska. While current forecast has up to near an inch there, depending on how quickly the trough digs into CO, could potentially see some higher localized totals. Northwest flow and overall mid-level ridging in the wake of the trough into the start of the work week.
An upper trough and cold front in central Oregon this morning will continue to push east through this afternoon and evening, bringing a quick round of precipitation to the area. Snow accumulations across the area will be light, with a couple inches above 4000 feet and less than an inch in the lower valleys (mainly on grassy or elevated surfaces). Temperatures near to slightly above freezing in the lower valleys this evening should reduce travel impacts. However, temperatures will fall below freezing overnight, so any water remaining on roadways will freeze with slick conditions possible.
An upper level low will be moving northwest to southeast across the four corners on Saturday. Surface winds will swing around to the southeast in response to the approach of this upper low. A very moist low level atmosphere will remain in place tonight which will result in the return of fog/freezing fog.
Another chilly day is expected with highs remaining in the low to mid 40s.
1242 PM EST Fri Jan 8 2021 With a persistent split flow pattern across the CONUS leading to ridging overhead between the jet streams, it's a persistence forecast today and tonight. With the low ceiling in place, there won't be much of a diurnal range to temps today. Used 60% of yesterday's obs grid MaxT for today's highs given the stagnant pattern, which results in temps peaking in the low 30s this afternoon - only a few degrees warmer than morning lows.
256 PM CST Fri Jan 8 2021 The stagnant weather pattern continues over the Northern Plains, so the main impacts in the short term are restricted to continued fog, low clouds, and spotty very light freezing drizzle/flurries. Do not think the light freezing drizzle or flurries will be widespread tonight, it may remain mostly accretion on trees or cars.
140 PM MST Fri Jan 8 2021 Upper trough over the region remains in place with stagnant flow aloft. There is some indication that there could be some freezing drizzle over central to NW SD overnight given lack of ice production. Main southern periphery impulse will dive SE across the Rockies through Sat, as a weak upper trough influence slides across the region.
On Saturday, an upper-level ridge will attempt to build into the mid- Mississippi River valley, coinciding with weak subsidence via slight mid-level height rises.
246 PM CST Fri Jan 8 2021 Areas of fog and a chance for freezing drizzle highlights the short term forecast. Drizzle / freezing drizzle has also been observed across the area, although most locations have warmed enough to not have many travel impacts at the moment. With a split flow pattern aloft, flow is very weak, which is why the low stratus deck and areas of fog are expected to continue through tonight and into tomorrow morning. Freezing drizzle is also possible tonight, mainly across the southern half of the forecast area. We did keep a slight chance of freezing drizzle in the far south during the morning on Saturday, with forecast soundings still showing that potential before drier air moves in from the north.
Low stratus remains widespread early this afternoon within a high pressure system, but some breaks in the overcast are developing.
306 PM EST Fri Jan 8 2021 A blocking pattern will persist across ern NOAM into late Saturday, leaving the mid level ridge and deep layer anticylonic flow in place across the Upper Great Lakes. The inversion depth will decrease tonight as warmer air below 900mb advects across Lake Huron and into Se Mi tonight. With sunshine expected on Saturday as the low level flow backs to the north-northwest, diurnal mixing should allow high temps to rise well into the 30s Saturday.
259 PM EST Fri Jan 8 2021 An upper low is spinning east over the western Carolinas this afternoon.
Low temperatures overnight will dip into the upper 30s across the ranchlands while remaining as high as the lower 50s near the coast. Transition is on tap for late tonight and Saturday, however, as high pressure shifts east and a couple of low latitude short wave troughs slowly come into phase as they head toward Texas.
If skies can clear enough tonight, expect chilly lows dipping down into the low 20s and approaching the teens in some of the normal cold locations. Current trends indicate that more clearing is likely this evening and tonight than guidance suggest and that cooler lows will be more likely as well. with possibly a few more breaks in the clouds, allowing temperatures to climb into the lower to mid 40s for tomorrow afternoon before more widespread cloud cover moves in overnight Saturday in advance of the next storm system.
131 PM EST Fri Jan 8 2021 High pressure over the Upper Midwest will remain the key player across the Great Lakes region through the weekend.
Current RAP analysis places the mid/upper low right overhead in the S Appalachians with the H85 low over western NC. For these reasons, limited any additional accumulations to the higher elevations as mentioned above. Garuckas Chattanooga Airport, TN 29 41 26 46 29 / 0 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 28 38 22 43 25 / 10 0 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 27 39 21 43 25 / 0 0 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 26 37 18 42 23 / 20 0 0 0 0 TN.
238 PM CST Fri Jan 8 2021 Stagnant Upper Midwest high pressure is resulting in little change in our weather, with continued cloudy (aside from a few thinning spots and transient sun peaks) and seasonable January temperatures. Therefore, I went warmer and toward the 90th percentile of NBM with lows in the lower to middle 20s.
High pressure extends from MN, along the north shore of Superior, to south of James Bay. The only time we might get some precipitation will be Saturday night as a 500 mb trough moves through quickly.
Clouds should eventually decrease for a little while this evening, but much like last night, with the shallow cold air, some fog and perhaps even freezing fog to redevelop tonight across portions of the area (basically those areas that didn't see it this morning).
Temperatures were on the chilly side, with readings in the low to mid 30s across the area. An upper level low pressure system was to the southeast of the area, however some upper energy remains in place behind the low and into the plains. Cold air advection continues in the low levels.
224 PM CST Fri Jan 8 2021 Yet another short term period where the highlight is on stratus and fog development as the airmass remains nearly unchanged. While most if not all of the forecast area will experience at least patchy freezing fog overnight, the worst visibilities are expected to extend from southwest MN through central and east central MN, where a Dense Fog Advisory has been issued.
1045 AM EST Fri Jan 8 2021 A mid to upper level cyclone centered over the southern Appalachians drove a cold front through the Florida Keys this morning. Temperatures across the island chain are in the lower to mid 70s, and likely have peaked at their max temperatures for the day. A cold front will continue to push southeast through the Straits of Florida this afternoon.
239 PM EST Fri Jan 8 2021 A low pressure system to crossing to our south will pull away by tonight with dry weather then expected through the weekend.
Given a solid stratus deck, lows will likely be held up in the upper teens to 20s, though potential is there to quickly drop into the low teens if any gaps form. Saturday looks very similar to today, with high pressure anchored just west and weak flow aloft.
/Issued 522 AM CST Fri Jan 8 2021/ VFR conditions persist through the TAF period with high pressure in control over the region. Expect high temperatures to be generally in the lower to middle 60s across the area. Coastal locations and Rio Grande Plains will be a bit warmer, in the lower 40s. Slightly cooler 850 temps Saturday will result in temperatures a bit cooler than today.
High temperatures are forecast in the 50s, although the cloudy and breezy conditions will cause max apparent temperatures to range from the low 40s to mid 50s. Given this and with the low clouds persisting through the day and the low level moisture indicated on model soundings, will likely see some isolated sprinkles or very light rain through the morning. With cooler air moving in behind the front and cloud coverage limiting highs today, expect maximum temperatures in the 50s with lows tonight in the 30s.
For 18Z Aviation discussion below Satellite this morning continues to show extensive fog and stratus across the region, with high pressure at the surface and weak flow through basically the entire troposphere.
High pressure extending from the Upper midwest southward to the Southern Plains will continue to slowly slide eastward throughout the day. Highs will range from mid 40s in north of the I-20 corridor to the lower 50s in Deep East Texas today. Afternoon high temperatures forecast to climb into the mid 40s today with overnight lows forecast to fall below freezing, ranging from the mid 20s to the lower 30s. With high pressure anchored across Oklahoma and north Texas, cold air advection will continue, allowing for continued cold temperatures ranging from highs on Saturday in the 40s to lows on Saturday night in the upper 20s to lower 30.
The only exception will be on Saturday when a dry cold frontal passage will bring breezy northwest winds and much cooler temperatures.
245 PM CST Fri Jan 8 2021 No real change in the pattern through Saturday morning so expect the fog, drizzle, freezing drizzle, and light bouts of snow to continue.
Overall surface winds will be light over the next couple of days as high pressure builds over the central and northern Great Plains, keeping low level moisture trapped over the region. An upper level low centered over southwest Nebraska will continue to track to the south of Nebraska early this evening. Late tomorrow and tomorrow night, another upper level low will drop south across southern Colorado into Oklahoma, which should keep all precipitation south of Nebraska into the southern Plains.
Temperatures today will be a few degrees above normal but then a cold front will drop then back down to or below normal over the weekend. A warming trend will begin after the weekend as high pressure builds in across the area. Besides short term cloud cover, temperatures are expected to be a couple degrees warmer than yesterday's, and some northerly breezes will remain down the Colorado River Valley with lighter winds elsewhere.
Tonight: Once the sun sets we should begin to see stratus settle back to the ground, especially across the Buffalo Ridge areas of Minnesota, South Dakota, and Iowa. Further west, model guidance showing deeper saturation in the low- lvls underneath a low-lvl wave of energy moving through the area. There may be enough convergence to spur the development of freezing drizzle or snow flurries through the central part of the state into Saturday. The abundant cloud cover will keep temperatures warmer than most guidance suggests, and have boosted overnight lows.
335 PM EST Fri Jan 8 2021 Low pressure passes well south and east of the area tonight into Saturday.
Dry but cloudy conditions continue to overspread the region through today as a cutoff upper low continues moving across the southeastern CONUS towards the east coast. This feature will move out over the Mid-Atlantic overnight tonight as it evolves into a more broad open longwave trough. Clouds overnight could also help to mitigate temps making them a couple of degrees warmer in some areas, but generally expecting upper 20s to low 30s northwest of I-65, and low to mid 30s southeast.
A cold front pushed through around daybreak, and portions of the Lower and Middle Keys received a second round of showers, separate from last evening's convection which scraped the southern portions of the island chain. Low pressure near the Outer Banks will develop into a Nor'easter overnight, allowing high pressure to spill east from the Plains. The cooler/drier air locked into the low-level cyclonic flow on the backside of the developing Nor'easter will spill south late tonight and Saturday.
As such, current forecast will maintain this low OVC ceiling into tonight. A broad high pressure currently stretches from the northern plains into the central Great Lakes and is resulting in north to northeast winds. This will support highs mostly in the low 30s. With some expectation of breaks in the clouds late tonight, forecast lows should come in around the low low to mid 20s. Lower level wind direction starts to shift to the northwest on Saturday as low level ridge axis pivots over the region.
Breezy, cloudy, and cool conditions are expected today in the wake of yesterday's cold front. A trough will continue to rotate across the Southeast US today before sliding off to the northeast tonight. At the surface, the gradient will remain tight as high pressure quickly slides southward over the Central and Southern Plains. Within this persistent northwesterly flow, cooler and drier air will continue to filter in across the region. As the cooler air continues to seep into the area, low temperatures tonight are forecast in the mid to upper 30s, with wind chills in the upper 20s to mid 30s.
Temperatures are already above freezing in many locations, with the exception of the Cumberland Plateau. Temperatures near or slightly above freezing will be most noticable on the Plateau. With a north wind at 10-15 mph, wind chills could drop into the low 30s or upper 20s.
954 AM MST Fri Jan 8 2021 Patchy fog, especially on the higher hills where the terrain is running into the the low ceilings, is continuing this morning. Roads may be slick this morning, especially over bridges and elevated road surfaces, so be sure to take your time for the morning commute. Snow looks to redevelop over eastern areas tonight, continuing into Saturday as a weak area of low pressure keeps some forcing over the region. Winds begin to increase along the western foothills late Saturday night as high pressure builds in from the west.
956 AM CST Fri Jan 8 2021 Strong cold air advection is occurring across the Mid-South in the wake of departing upper level low pressure system. /issued 352 AM CST Fri Jan 8 2021/ Most early morning temperatures across the Midsouth are above freezing. Moderate cold air advection will likely result in 2-3 degrees of additional cooling before sunrise resulting in morning lows in the low to middle 30s. A strongly positively tilted trough will track out of the Central Plains approaching the Mississippi River near Memphis Saturday morning.
321 PM EST Fri Jan 8 2021 The region will be locked into a persistent, quiet weather pattern through the weekend and much of the next work week with broad high pressure building in from the west and low pressure systems missing us to the south and north. Compact upper low will rotate through the Bay of Fundy tonight with a few snow showers across northern and eastern zones this evening. Quiet weather is expected through the weekend as low pressure tracks well southeast of New England and high pressure builds in from the west. Saturday night will be slightly cooler than tonight with lows ranging to near 10 degrees north and near 20 degrees along the coast. Weak northern stream short wave troughs occasionally pass through but they will be moisture-starved and provide very little opportunity for precipitation.
Temporary IFR conditions are possible for KMAF and KHOB until 19Z as KMAF and KHOB are at the very edge of the lower cloud deck. Areas of freezing fog may develop this morning as moistures shoves west into the cold airmass in place. This fog should dissipate around 10-11am with temperatures warming above freezing by then. An upper low over the Southeast U. will lift north today while surface ridging builds south across the central CONUS. We will likely see areas of fog and drizzle develop overnight and, as temperatures drop below freezing, slick spots may develop on elevated surfaces like bridges and overpasses. Increasing lift and large scale ascent will spread across the region Saturday night as the upper low deepens and approaches SE NM and W TX.
/issued 956 AM CST Fri Jan 8 2021/ Strong cold air advection is occurring across the Mid-South in the wake of departing upper level low pressure system. /issued 352 AM CST Fri Jan 8 2021/ Most early morning temperatures across the Midsouth are above freezing. Moderate cold air advection will likely result in 2-3 degrees of additional cooling before sunrise resulting in morning lows in the low to middle 30s. A strongly positively tilted trough will track out of the Central Plains approaching the Mississippi River near Memphis Saturday morning.
A warming trend will begin after the weekend as high pressure builds in across the area.
320 PM EST Fri Jan 8 2021 High pressure builds over the Ohio Valley this weekend allowing for the possibility of some breaks of sunshine.
1124 AM CST Fri Jan 8 2021 (Today and tonight) Relatively deep moisture profile in the lower levels of the atmosphere not expected to change much today with little in the way of flow, so clouds expected to hang tough over most of the area until late in the day. Will go on the lower side of guidance for highs today, and with at least some clearing or thinning of cloud cover possible tonight, will not go far from model blend lows.
102 PM EST Fri Jan 8 2021 Upper low over the Carolinas to move into the W Atlantic tonight into Saturday with dry air wrapping over the area. As the low level flow veers N tonight E Gulf strato cu should remain offshore and confined to coastal areas tonight.
Based on some clear skies early tonight and light west winds lows tonight across western Kansas are expected to fall back into the mid 20s before the low clouds roll back in. Cloudy conditions will be possible during the day on Saturday as an upper level trough crosses the Central and Southern Rockies. Ahead of this approaching upper level trough an area of enhanced 850mb to 700mb frontogenesis will be developing late day across southeast Colorado and extreme southwest Kansas. On Saturday night light snow will increase in coverage as 850mb to 700mb moisture and frontogenesis improves across extreme southwest Kansas ahead of an upper level trough that will be exiting the Rockies and moving out into the Central and Southern Plains.
1134 AM MST Fri Jan 8 2021 Trough continues to sweep to the east this morning, with some wraparound energy bringing some light snow across far northern WY currently. Models continue to produce very light snow through about midmorning for the eastern Big Horn Basin and the Big Horn Mountains until the trough moves farther east. Expect 1 to 2 inches for the higher elevations of the western mountains between midnight and sunrise Saturday, while areas of southern Sweetwater County will see around an inch or so between sunrise and noon Saturday. General ridging will keep temperatures seasonal to slightly warmer than normal with 700mb temps in the -2 to -6 range, depending on which model you look at.
Friday and Friday night: By Friday afternoon, an upper level trough is currently situated over the eastern US.