Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Highs on Tuesday will be fairly seasonal, ranging from the lower 40s in the southwest corner to the mid/upper 40s over central/south central Kansas. Increasing westerly flow aloft Tuesday night will force a low pressure trough at the surface to develop in the lee of the Rockies with a tightening pressure gradient across southwest and central Kansas.
907 PM EST Mon Jan 18 2021 High pressure builds into the area tonight and Tuesday. A dry cold front crosses the area Tuesday night.
Periodic upticks in lake enhanced CAPE should allow for times of sputters and starts to this lake effect especially for a couple of hours after 00z tonight and then again during the afternoon Tuesday as a cold front slides south from MI into the area.
530 PM CST Mon Jan 18 2021 (This evening through Tuesday) Cold front located across central and southwestern Oklahoma this afternoon will continue to push southeast this afternoon and this evening. Abundant cloud cover and a slightly cooler airmass will result in temperatures tomorrow afternoon several degrees cooler than today.
Far northern Minnesota will see a chance for more light snow mid week as an area of strong low pressure moves from Manitoba into northwest Ontario.
922 PM EST Mon Jan 18 2021 High pressure will build across the area early Tuesday morning.
All snow should end after midnight as we lose daytime instability and high pressure builds over western Wyoming.
831 PM EST Mon Jan 18 2021 A ridge of high pressure will continue to dominate the weather pattern across South Florida for tonight. Low temperatures will drop into the lower 40s across the northwestern interior sections to the upper 50s across the east coast metro areas. Ridge of high pressure near surface allowing VFR conditions to prevail through the entirety of the forecast period. The 500mb pattern shows an exiting trough and the pattern going zonal over the area, with some weak ridging over the western Gulf. At the surface, high pressure is building, with the center just to the north. Tomorrow, the east flow around the high will bring a slightly warmer, moister flow over the area, probably allowing for some fair weather cumulus to form through the afternoon.
All of the available guidance suggests that the lower flight conditions will not spread down into the far NW AR sites, and thus have left it out of this TAF forecast, but this does bear watching for the 06Z forecast. Cold front is currently entering north central Oklahoma and will continue to push southeast this afternoon and evening. As front moves into southeast Oklahoma this evening, expect scattered light showers to develop near the front under a modest zone of isentropic ascent near the low level jet axis. Cooler temperatures are expected for Tuesday behind the front as the boundary stalls over the ArkLaTex region Tuesday morning.
High pressure pushes into the northern plains on Tuesday. Look for mainly dry weather on Tuesday with high pressure over the area.
High pressure builds into the region tonight for drier conditions with any lingering snow over the central and southwest Montana mountains ending this evening.
High pressure will be over the region and therefore a presence across ECFL during the period. Away from larger cities, much of rural and normally cooler locations of ECFL will fall into the M-U30s for lows.
526 PM CST Mon Jan 18 2021 Cold front will be moving through Arkansas during the overnight hours. Mid- level disturbance moving parallel to the front will interact with the system, allowing for scattered showers primarily along and north of the boundary, with the highest precipitation chances over the central and south between about 06Z and 18Z.
High pressure at the surface will continue to slide east across the northern Gulf of Mexico through Tuesday. A cold front will sag south and into northern portions of the CWA on Tuesday, before eventually stalling. As far as temperatures are concerned, with the aforementioned increasing clouds and moisture, lows tonight will be a little warmer as they range from the mid 30s to mid 40s. Then on Tuesday, because of the cold front stalling over the area, a sharp temperature gradient will exist.
759 PM EST Mon Jan 18 2021 Light winds, clear skies, and seasonably cold conditions will prevail tonight as high pressure settles directly overhead. Lows will drop to around freezing across the interior and the mid to upper 30s towards the coast. High pressure will build overhead from the west this afternoon, and remain overhead through Tuesday. With the high overhead, calm to light winds, with clear skies expected. Temperatures will fall to around freezing inland Tonight, with mid to upper 30s at the coast.
Light snow continues across the region this afternoon as weak low pressure tracks from northwest to southeast. Winds shift to the southwest Tuesday night and a drier, warmer air mass will move in.
552 PM EST Mon Jan 18 2021 High pressure builds in through Tuesday.
A cold front will settle toward cntl LA Tuesday aftn with winds trending lighter and more vrbl at AEX, but any -SHRA should remain north of the area. /issued 411 PM CST Mon Jan 18 2021/ High pressure over the gulf steadily drifting off to the east as southeasterly winds stream low level moisture into the region.
755 PM CST Mon Jan 18 2021 A cold front stretches from near Jay, Oklahoma to near Ada, Oklahoma this evening.
402 PM EST Mon Jan 18 2021 High pressure builds into the area tonight and Tuesday. A dry cold front crosses the area Tuesday night.
Models remain bullish on QPF numbers across our our southern zones later tonight and through the day on Tuesday as a closing upper level low over northern Utah retrogrades southwest across Nevada and California tomorrow. As the low closes off, low level flow turns southeasterly across our southern zones. Temperatures have been rather mild today and it will take a few hours to get them running back toward freezing, but believe this will happen overnight with moist adiabatic cooling in steady upslope flow. As the upper low continues to drop southwest across California and eventually offshore, precipitation will gradually taper off with improving conditions expected during the afternoon hours.
/issued 245 PM CST Mon Jan 18 2021/ Zonal flow aloft will amplify slightly through Tuesday with short wave ridging developing overhead. The forecast area should remain dry with precip well to our northwest associated with a short wave trough over southern California and well to our southeast associated with a southern branch jet streak. Cooler air behind today's cold front combined with increased mid to high level cloud cover will help keep Tuesday's highs on the cool side ranging from the 40s to lower 50s. By late tomorrow night, the closed low off the Baja coast will have split from the Polar jet and begin to set its sights on our region. Both the GFS and ECMWF have the low quickly transitioning into an open wave.
Surface observations place a strengthening high pressure system over North Florida, lending to gentle north to northeast breezes across the Florida Keys. Water vapor imagery highlights a void of mid-latitude storminess across the CONUS, allowing the developing mean-layer ridge over the Caribbean to regain some latitude, hence the rising heights. From synopsis, a high pressure center over the northeast Gulf of Mexico will strengthen over northern Florida tonight and Tuesday.
Dry, windier, and slightly cooler conditions to start off the work week.
Lows tonight where it does stay clear could end up a few degrees cooler than current forecast. This looks reasonable given obs out to the west and forecast soundings indicating some increased moisture in the lowest levels by 14/15z Tuesday. Overnight lows will be a little cooler than previous nights, with lows in the teens. Highs tomorrow will only be in the low 20s, as a lobe of cooler air aloft rotates through the area.
828 PM CST Mon Jan 18 2021 Light rain will begin to spread develop across the Mid-South this evening ahead of an approaching cold front. A weak midlevel disturbance and associated cold front will shift across the Midsouth late tonight, likely reaching the Memphis area around sunrise and shift out of the Midsouth by Midday. There should be a few showers associated with the front with the highest chance of accumulation over North Mississippi where moisture is more abundant. Expect clearing and dry conditions tomorrow night as a weak ridge shifts out of East Texas and approaches the Mississippi River Valley.
With a slightly more southwest flow in the boundary layer, the higher intensity snow showers will remain largely north of metro. Stronger height falls commence Tuesday night as an upper wave of arctic origin dives into the mean trough.
411 PM CST Mon Jan 18 2021 High pressure over the gulf steadily drifting off to the east as southeasterly winds stream low level moisture into the region.
Some areas seeing a lull/decrease in the wind gusts from last nite/earlier this morning over Norcal as the initial low pressure system drops to the south (near 30N/120W) and away from our region. The CAA will also result in cooler max temps for Tue.
632 PM EST Mon Jan 18 2021 High pressure builds into the area tonight and Tuesday. A dry cold front crosses the area Tuesday night.
Not expecting much if any additional accumulations outside of the the higher mountains. Going into tomorrow, with ridging building in aloft, the pressure gradient will start to increase along the foothills.
Ridge of high pressure near surface allowing VFR conditions to prevail through the entirety of the forecast period. The 500mb pattern shows an exiting trough and the pattern going zonal over the area, with some weak ridging over the western Gulf. At the surface, high pressure is building, with the center just to the north. Tomorrow, the east flow around the high will bring a slightly warmer, moister flow over the area, probably allowing for some fair weather cumulus to form through the afternoon.
as a cutoff low and weak short wave ridging moves across the northern plains. The cooler area of high pressure at the surface that has nosed into the central High Plains region will spread further across the plains states through the day on Tuesday, keeping temperatures near to slightly above normal for this time of year.
Mild, dry air and partly sunny skies allowed afternoon temperatures to climb above normal west of the Cumberland Plateau with many areas hitting the lower 50s.
A weak midlevel disturbance and associated cold front will shift across the Midsouth late tonight, likely reaching the Memphis area around sunrise and shift out of the Midsouth by Midday. There should be a few showers associated with the front with the highest chance of accumulation over North Mississippi where moisture is more abundant. Expect clearing and dry conditions tomorrow night as a weak ridge shifts out of East Texas and approaches the Mississippi River Valley.
Further south, the mixed phase precip will transition to all snow as surface temperatures wet bulb down into the lower 30s after onset. High temperatures will mainly be in the lower to middle 30s.
921 PM EST Mon Jan 18 2021 High pressure will prevail through the middle of the week.
The 0Z surface analysis shows 1023-mb high pressure centered just off the Panhandle coast. Clear skies and light winds, within a post- frontal airmass will make for ideal radiational cooling conditions, which should allow temperatures to drop to near or below freezing. Widespread temperatures in the low 40s (away from the coast) are already being observed as of 8:30pm EST. An upper level trough that brought a cold front through the area overnight is quickly moving off the southeast US while mostly zonal flow develops behind this feature into Tuesday. At the surface, high pressure is filtering into the region with winds expected to become nearly calm after sunset tonight. Clear skies and calm winds will allow cold temperatures tonight around/just below the freezing mark.
240 PM PST Mon Jan 18 2021 A cold front dropping through the region will bring strong northeast winds tonight and Tuesday with damaging winds possible in the Sierra.
632 PM EST Mon Jan 18 2021 High pressure will prevail through the middle of the week.
Upper flow is fairly zonal across the southern tier states this afternoon and evening in the wake of a departing upper trough to our east. The higher terrain in southwest Virginia, and far northeastern Tennessee may see enough snow to yield a couple of tenths of an inch of snow, but that should be about it. Temperatures should rise into the low 50s for highs tomorrow in the south but will struggle to reach above the low to mid 40s in the north. Tuesday night a weak and mostly dry cold front will move through producing a low chance of light snow showers across the higher terrain of NE TN and southwest VA.
Enough influence from the upper jet setting up south of the region plus orographic lift due to strengthening westerlies will allow for snow development over northern WV, favoring the higher terrain.
The advertised cold front has moved s of a CNM-INK-MAF line with post-frontal winds ne at 15-20kts. Temperatures have risen well into the 60's with 70's along and south of I-20! A strong cold front is already beginning to move into the area and is currently along a Carlsbad to Odessa to Snyder line. Meanwhile, an upper low will develop and dig to our west setting up over the Baja through midweek.
214 AM CST Tue Jan 19 2021 Cold advection with the northwest flow will lead to cooler temperatures today, but mainly back closer to seasonal normals. Another dry but weak cold front looks to move south across KS on Thu, with compressional heating ahead of the front leading to another above normal temperature day on Thu as well. Ketcham * VFR conditions expected over the next 24 hrs * Gusty NW winds possible Tuesday A weak cold front will push southeast across central/southern KS overnight, clearing southeast KS early Tuesday morning.
323 AM EST Tue Jan 19 2021 High pressure builds southwest of the region today.
Upper ridge centered offshore with dry northerly flow. Not a favorable pattern for widespread fog in the Columbia basin tonight although could have patchy freezing fog develop late. Upper ridge axis moves over the Pacific northwest Tue. Satellite shows cirrus currently moving through the ridge so a mostly sunny day. Patchy freezing fog in the morning near the rivers. The upper ridge over the area is fairly strong and expect the system moving through on Wed to be weak with partly cloudy skies. A stronger upper low then moves across the region on Thu with colder temps and a chance of snow. Patchy freezing fog possible at the Columbia basin sites late tonight.
1232 AM EST Tue Jan 19 2021 High pressure will prevail through the middle of the week.
246 AM CST Tue Jan 19 2021 Much warmer across Middle Tennessee this morning versus yesterday thanks to ongoing WAA, with current temperatures in the mid 30s to upper 40s. Radar is showing considerable virga across Kentucky, and additional sprinkles and light rain showers are anticipated to develop later this morning as a weak cold front moves southeast across the area. Otherwise, mild start today will lead to an even warmer day than yesterday with highs reaching the upper 40s to mid 50s.
1145 PM CST Mon Jan 18 2021 A cold front will continue to move through Arkansas during the overnight hours. Mid-level disturbance moving parallel to the front will interact with the system, allowing for scattered showers primarily along and north of the boundary, with the highest precipitation chances over the central and south between through 18Z.
It will turn cool and breezy behind the sharp trough axis this evening and overnight.
Issued by National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 150 AM EST Tue Jan 19 2021 High pressure builds into the area tonight and Tuesday. A dry cold front crosses the area Tuesday night.
1245 AM EST Tue Jan 19 2021 High pressure will build across the area this morning.
A ridge of high pressure will continue to dominate the weather pattern across South Florida for tonight. Low temperatures will drop into the lower 40s across the northwestern interior sections to the upper 50s across the east coast metro areas. Ridge of high pressure near surface allowing VFR conditions to prevail through the entirety of the forecast period. The 500mb pattern shows an exiting trough and the pattern going zonal over the area, with some weak ridging over the western Gulf. At the surface, high pressure is building, with the center just to the north. Tomorrow, the east flow around the high will bring a slightly warmer, moister flow over the area, probably allowing for some fair weather cumulus to form through the afternoon.
Ahead of the trough, mild conds are expected with highs in the 40s and 50s, warmest over the southern half.
948 PM CST Mon Jan 18 2021 (This evening through Tuesday) Cold front located across central and southwestern Oklahoma this afternoon will continue to push southeast this afternoon and this evening. Abundant cloud cover and a slightly cooler airmass will result in temperatures tomorrow afternoon several degrees cooler than today.
Look for mainly dry weather today with high pressure over the area.
A subtle boundary runs from northern Indiana across Illinois and then into the low near KEST. This system will bring some light snow and possibly some patchy freezing drizzle to the area. On the south edge of the precipitation some patchy freezing drizzle cannot be ruled out. 5 and 1 inch with the highest amounts in the highway 20 corridor. Discussion: WAA will be the story at the beginning of the period as warmer temps will start the day and period.
232 AM EST Tue Jan 19 2021 High pressure will build across the area this morning. Another dry cold front will move southeast across the Mid-Atlantic states and the Carolinas tonight.
Hi-res models (RAP/HRRR/GLAMP) point to this fog pushing as far south as the Highway 60 corridor early this morning, with some locations seeing visibilities drop below a mile. Some patchy freezing fog will also be possible for locations that see temperatures drop below freezing, which could lead to a few slick spots on untreated roadways.
Otherwise, some freezing drizzle was showing up at Watertown this evening and likely other places. Light snow continues across the region this afternoon as weak low pressure tracks from northwest to southeast. Winds shift to the southwest Tuesday night and a drier, warmer air mass will move in.
/issued 828 PM CST Mon Jan 18 2021/ Light rain will begin to spread develop across the Mid-South this evening ahead of an approaching cold front. A weak midlevel disturbance and associated cold front will shift across the Midsouth late tonight, likely reaching the Memphis area around sunrise and shift out of the Midsouth by Midday. There should be a few showers associated with the front with the highest chance of accumulation over North Mississippi where moisture is more abundant. Expect clearing and dry conditions tomorrow night as a weak ridge shifts out of East Texas and approaches the Mississippi River Valley.
There is little in the way of surface forcing or moisture, but there is a decent vorticity max that will swing through the upper trough over northern parts of Illinois and Indiana, and this will bring a chance for light snow over the northern counties. With the wave completely east of the area by around 6z, will see the highest PoPs in the northern counties from 0 to 6z. From 6 to 12z, could see some lake effect flurries as northerly flow moves in ahead of building high pressure from the northwest.
High pressure has become centered over northern Florida this morning while a cold front stretches from the mid- Mississippi Valley to the Big Bend of Texas. Moisture remains fairly limited with the cold front, however along and ahead of the boundary light showers and patchy areas of rain are ongoing from Central Texas through North LA, South AR, and North MS. Today the cold front will continue slowly south and weaken.
149 AM MST Tue Jan 19 2021 Latest upper air analysis shows northwest flow over the Plains with a closed low centered over Nevada. The upper level flow then merges over the High Plains. At the surface a cold front has moved through the forecast area. Unlike the prior cold front passage, this one has not produced gusty winds as it moved through. Highs will be a few degrees cooler than yesterday due to less WAA from the northwest winds compared to yesterday. Overhead a short wave ridge will move through.
At the surface, high pressure will be over the region today. Tonight, a weak cold front over Central AL/GA will sag into the northernmost part of the region. With southerly flow and sunny skies today, highs will be a bit warmer in the 60s.
/NEW/ /Through Tuesday night/ A cold front is making its way through North Texas this morning, and is more or less bisecting the Metroplex as of this writing. A cluster of showers has developed near and ahead of this cold front, with most of the activity along a line from Denton to Paris. These showers should expand and coverage and move southeast through the rest of the night and into the day Tuesday as isentropic ascent increases in the wake of the surface cold front passage. This combination should keep temperatures in the 50s for much of the day, with highs likely to be in the low to mid 50s for most locations.
1", as most of the moisture will be limited to the lower atmosphere and the sfc boundary will have better influence to our south.
A cold front will slowly sag south acrs the area from late Tuesday aftn into the evening. /issued 411 PM CST Mon Jan 18 2021/ High pressure over the gulf steadily drifting off to the east as southeasterly winds stream low level moisture into the region.
Lastly, saturation is noted in the lowest 700mb and steep lapse rates at times.
/Issued 755 PM CST Mon Jan 18 2021/ A cold front stretches from near Jay, Oklahoma to near Ada, Oklahoma this evening.
951 PM CST Mon Jan 18 2021 Issued update to start the High Wind Warning now and to update the winds. Current winds at Guadalupe Pass are at high wind criteria and are expected to remain at high wind criteria so have extended the High Wind Warning to go in effect now. Temperatures have risen well into the 60's with 70's along and south of I-20! A strong cold front is already beginning to move into the area and is currently along a Carlsbad to Odessa to Snyder line. Meanwhile, an upper low will develop and dig to our west setting up over the Baja through midweek.
Cool high pressure will prevail over the greater region today. We will see some mid to high level clouds drift by as well as a mid level trof amplifies across the CONUS. The good news is that the fire danger will be less today with the cooler highs and resultant higher afternoon relative humidity. The may result is slightly warmer minimums with more mid to upper 20s versus more seasonal upper teens to lower 20s. This may be particularly true south of the Highway 50, where this southwest flow will continue longer.
Main adjustment to near term fcst was to increase minT downwind of the mtns particularly in the Lower Susq. Valley as cloud cover and westerly wind help to keep overnight temps from falling much below current readings in the low/mid 30s. Another inch or two of accumulation will be possible, especially over the higher elevations of the Laurels. Weak ridging, subsidence and slight warming/drying of the bylr Tuesday will lead to flurries at best near the Allegheny Front, with only isolated snow showers across the NW zones and Laurel Highlands.
At this point temperatures should be above freezing with the rain moving in. Lows overnight will fall to or just below freezing in the northern third by sunrise with upper 30s to low 40s elsewhere.
Snow amounts should generally be a trace to a half an inch, however ridge top locations could see a little more. After a cold start Wednesday, the mid level ridge builds in with southwest winds increasing across the Plains.