Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
944 AM MDT THU AUG 6 2015 AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. A WEATHER DISTURBANCE ALOFT MOVING THROUGH THE TROUGH WAS BRINGING SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO GLACIER COUNTY SO HAVE RAISED THE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION IN THAT AREA FOR THE REST OF THIS MORNING AND ALSO ADDED A MENTION OF THUNDER. UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTHEAST BRITISH COLUMBIA CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST WITH FLOW ALOFT OVER MONTANA VEERING FROM SOUTHWEST TO WEST BY THIS EVENING.
815 AM PDT THU AUG 6 2015 PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH TODAY AND MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY.
/ISSUED 307 AM CDT THU AUG 6 2015/ AN UPPER HIGH CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE THE WEEKEND.
THE AREA WILL BE UNDER A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TODAY WHILE A CLOSED LOW APPROACHES THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST. THE 00Z GFS, NAM, AND ECMWF TRENDED TOWARD LESS COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN OUR AREA ON FRIDAY WITH A MORE EASTERLY TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW ACROSS THE SACRAMENTO VALLEY AND SIERRA NEVADA. I HAVE CONTINUED WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY IN SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF SISKIYOU AND MODOC COUNTIES. THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH BEHIND THE TROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.
735 AM EDT THU AUG 6 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK TO THE SOUTH OF PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND MOVE OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW. AS CENTRAL PA WILL BE IN REGION OF LG SCALE SUBSIDENCE ON EAST SIDE OF UPPER RIDGE OVR THE MISS VALLEY.
A WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY DRIFT INTO SERN CO/SWRN KS THROUGH THE AFTN. SFC TEMPS ACROSS SWRN OK AND WRN N TX WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 100S TO NEAR 105. EXPECT TEMPS TO CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 100S FOR SEVERAL LOCATIONS ACROSS THE REGION. DPTS WILL CONTINUE TO RESIDE IN THE LOWER 70S ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL OK. WITH THE H500 RIDGE AXIS CENTERING OVER THE SRN AND CENTRAL PLAINS.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS CONTINUES TO PUSH EASTWARD. A TROF EXTENDS FROM THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE TROF IN FAR SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. THESE WAVES HAVE BROUGHT STORMS WRN SD OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT/DRYLINE TO THE CWA WITH SUBSIDENCE BUILDING IN BEHIND THE WAVE.
A very persistent and strong high pressure ridge will continue to dominate West Central Texas for another 24 hours and produce unusually hot temperatures. limited cloud cover and a thermal ridge at 850mb will produce afternoon highs across most of West Central Texas in the 103 to 105 range.
RIDGING SHOULD MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON.
THE 500MB CANICULA HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST IS PROGGED TO BECOME CENTERED OVER NORTHERN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA FRIDAY. THE POSITION OF THE HIGH AND NO CHANGE IN THE MOISTURE CONTENT OR THE OVERALL STATE OF THE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS WILL PROVIDE A PERSISTENT FORECAST. THE FORECAST DAYTIME HIGHS COMBINING WITH THE LOWERING HUMIDITY TO PRODUCE A FEW HOURS OF HEAT INDICES WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF THE HEAT ADVISORY THRESHOLD AS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY.
12Z CRP SOUNDING REVEALED A WARMER BUT SLIGHTLY DRIER AIRMASS OVER THE COASTAL BEND AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD ALOFT.
TODAY WILL CONTINUE THE DRYING TREND WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER NEW MEXICO. WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 40 MPH OVER THE HIGHER PEAKS TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS WELL. WINDS WILL DIE DOWN BY THE EVENING WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT GIVING WAY TO LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S. SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A TROUGH MOVING INTO NRN NEVADA AND THE RIDGE CENTERED OVER NORTHEAST TX. BEST CHC WILL BE NORTH AND EAST OF DENVER BUT A DEVELOPING DENVER CYCLONE COULD ALLOW FOR A SEVERE TSTMS AS WELL.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA TODAY. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND REGIONAL LAPS ANALYSIS SHOW A NICE PUSH OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE LOWER DESERTS OF WESTERN AZ.
/issued 313 AM CDT THU AUG 6 2015/ The upper ridge in control of our weather is in the process of strengthening and expanding east across Texas.
WITH HEIGHTS ACROSS THE REGION ALREADY HAVING INCREASED 1-2 DECAMETERS OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS AS THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS FARTHER EAST. IF CONDITIONS TREND SLIGHTLY WARMER OR MOIST THAN ANTICIPATED HOWEVER. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EASTWARD.
THE RIDGE ALOFT IS BUILDING BACK INTO THE REGION AND THIS WILL SUPPRESS CLOUD DEVELOPMENT AND STORMS.
LATEST AVAILABLE IR IMAGERY OVERLAID WITH MODEL STREAMLINE ANALYSIS AS OF 900 AM DEPICT THE CENTER OF THE DEEPEST AND WARMEST ANTICYCLONE POSITIONED OVER FAR WEST TEXAS. WITH AN ATTENDANT MIDDLE AND UPPER RIDGE WHICH EXTENDS EASTWARD TO ACROSS THE GULF AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. AT THE SURFACE AND IN THE LOWER TO MID LEVELS. THE LATEST UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN SAL (SAHARAN AIR LAYER) ANALYSIS ILLUSTRATED SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE KEYS ARE NOW IN THE DRIEST AIR (SURFACE TO 700 MB) WITH THE HIGHEST CONCENTRATION AND DRIEST AIR UPSTREAM EASTWARD TO THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. GIVEN THE RELATIVE POSITION OF THE SURFACE/LOW LEVEL RIDGE.
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS ANTICIPATED TO MOVE EAST TODAY TOWARDS CENTRAL KENTUCKY.
404 AM PDT THU AUG 6 2015 A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING MILD TEMPERATURES PLUS A ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY.
LATEST SURFACE MAP FEATURES LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE IL/MO BORDER. WITH A FRONT WARM FRONT DRAPED TO THE EAST ACROSS KENTUCKY. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS ROTATING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. AS LOW PRESSURE PIVOTS AWAY LATER TONIGHT. WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING GRADUALLY WORKING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATER IN THE DAY. THIS FEATURES A SET UP WITH A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WITH THE AXIS MEANDERING JUST WEST OF THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES AND A TROUGH OVER THE EAST.
TEMPS LOOK TO REMAIN A BIT COOLER WITH HIGHS AROUND 90/LOW 90S. A MID LEVEL IMPULSE IS FORECAST TO DROP SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE CWA ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN SIDE OF A BUILDING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE SOUTHWEST. HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO AND DOMINATES THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
1241 PM EDT THU AUG 6 2015 HYDRO FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR TODAY THEN CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ON FRIDAY WITH A FEW SHOWERS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH.
AND THE CAMS ARE INDICATING THE POTENTIAL OF A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING IN THE WAA REGIME ACROSS WESTERN MN THIS MORNING /AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO NORTHERN MN/. BUT DECENT DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT OUT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. AS THE TROUGH TRANSLATES EASTWARD. THIS WAVE WILL ORIGINATE FROM THE UPPER LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST AND EMERGE ON THE PLAINS SOMEWHERE NEAR NERN CO/SERN WY FRIDAY NIGHT.
659 AM CDT THU AUG 6 2015 UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL EXPAND FURTHER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT LEADING TO HOT AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS. /ISSUED 357 AM CDT THU AUG 6 2015/ UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO BETTER SURFACE WARMING WITH HIGHS TODAY A DEGREE OR MAYBE TWO WARMER FOR MOST OF THE AREA. WHILE THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND. ALTHOUGH A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY AS THE UPPER HIGH IS NUDGED EAST AHEAD OF A DISTURBANCE PUSHING ONSHORE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA.
745 AM EDT THU AUG 6 2015 AVIATION FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR TODAY THEN CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ON FRIDAY WITH A FEW SHOWERS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH.
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN AN AREA OF STRONG INSTABILITY IN ADVANCE OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH ALOFT THAT LIFTS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES AND MOVES EASTWARD INTO NEBRASKA FRIDAY EVENING.
WV Imagery and 12Z upper air analysis indicate a weak upper level ridge of high pressure situated across the Desert Southwest. Meanwhile, an upper level trough of low pressure is moving eastward across the Northern Rockies. A warm front will extend eastward from this low near the Oklahoma/Kansas border. Low level upslope flow north of this front will result in very humid conditions today except for the extreme southwest corner where veered surface winds will allow the lower levels to dry out.
UPPER TROF GLANCING THROUGH NRN CO THIS MORNING WILL HELP KICK THE LEE TROF EASTWARD WITH WESTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO A FEW DEGREES WARMER. NEXT UPPER TROF WILL MOVE ONSHORE ACROSS CA AND MONSOON TAP WILL SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT BASIN.
/ISSUED 721 AM EDT THU AUG 6 2015/ HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR WILL LIMIT SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY.
721 AM EDT THU AUG 6 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK TO THE SOUTH OF PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND MOVE OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW. AS CENTRAL PA WILL BE IN REGION OF LG SCALE SUBSIDENCE ON EAST SIDE OF UPPER RIDGE OVR THE MISS VALLEY.
847 AM EDT THU AUG 6 2015 AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTHWEST INDIANA THIS MORNING WILL TRACK EAST SOUTHEAST. A NARROW WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD SOUTHWARD OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES. WITH NORTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE. THOUGH THE EXTRA SUN ALONE WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO GET BACK INTO THE LOWER 80S ON FRIDAY.
SIGNS OF SUBSIDENCE FROM HIGH PRESSURE BEGINNING TO AGAIN BUILD ALOFT ARE PRESENT IN THE ELEVATED INVERSION AT 500 MB. WE WILL BEGIN TO SEE LESS COVERAGE OF SH/TS AFTER TODAY AS A STACKED RIDGE BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA. THIS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING THE HEAT BACK WITH IT. BUT THIS TIME DP TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER. THERE IS ALWAYS A TRADE OFF AS HIGHER DP TEMPS DOES NOT ALLOW FOR EXTREME HEATING BUT COOLER DP TEMPS WILL.
BUILDING ATMOSPHERIC THICKNESS SHOULD SUPPORT AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER SOUTHWEST CANADA CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE OFF TO THE EAST PLACING THE FORECAST AREA UNDER A STABLE DRY AND COOL WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW. SOME LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL BE COMING TO AN END AS A RESULT OF THE TROUGH MOVING OFF TO THE EAST. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN A LITTLE COOLER THAN NORMAL TODAY AND OVERNIGHT.
STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON LATE MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE (1020 MILLIBARS) EXTENDING ITS AXIS WESTWARD ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. LOW PRESSURE (1008 MILLIBARS) AND AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS MOVING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. A POTENT TROUGH IS ROTATING SLOWLY EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS. FALLING HEIGHTS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL LIKELY LEAD TO STRONG THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DURING PEAK HEATING. ALLOWING HIGHS TO CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 90S ALL THE WAY TO THE BEACHES THIS AFTERNOON.
636 AM CDT THU AUG 6 2015 A little break in the stormy pattern will give us a day to dry out, but warmer temperatures and rain chances will return for the weekend. Prevailing pattern across the Nation is dominated by a low amplitude ridge/trough pattern with modest troughs across either coast and a ridge across the Plains States.
721 AM EDT THU AUG 6 2015 HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR WILL LIMIT SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY.
A FRONTAL TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTH NEAR THE NORTHERN WATERS ON FRIDAY.
GREAT LAKES HIGH PRESSURE WILL HELP TO KEEP MOISTURE SUPPRESSED. AXIS OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROF IS WELL EAST BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. ALTHOUGH LINGERING MOISTURE AND STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD RESULT IN SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHEAST RIDGES FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND UPSTREAM UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCES STAYING WELL TO OUR NORTH.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL PREVAIL OVER THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY FOR DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE AREA THIS WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL PREVAIL OVER THE REGION TODAY IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM THAT MOVED ACROSS EARLIER. THIS COUPLED WITH LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL LEAD TO PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND WARMER TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON. NOT MUCH GOING ON FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SLOWLY MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. WITH THE LACK OF CLOUD OVER IN THE MORNING OVER THE INTERIOR HIGHS WILL BE A TOUCH WARMER AGAIN EVEN WITH THE RIDGE MOVING EAST. THE WARMEST LOCATIONS OVER THE INTERIOR WILL GET INTO THE LOWER 80S WITH 70S COMMON OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE INTERIOR.
1137 AM EDT THU AUG 6 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS AND COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURES. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S WITH READINGS CLOSE TO 80 IN THE WARMER VALLEYS OF NE PA.
LOW PRESSURE IS HANGING BACK TO OUR WEST, NOW OVER SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. THIS LOW SHOULD CROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY DURING THE DAY. EXPECT THE HEAVIEST RAINS NORTH OF THE LOW TRACK AND IN THE SPIRAL BANDS AHEAD OF IT THROUGH KENTUCKY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ESE TODAY PROVIDING MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS/STORMS TO OUR REGION. ALTHOUGH THESE CLUSTERS HAVE MAINLY REMAINED TO OUR WEST EARLY THIS MORNING, THEY WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN INDIANA AND CENTRAL KY TODAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH OUR REGION. TONIGHT WE'LL SEE LINGERING SHOWERS TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA. HIGH TEMPS WILL REACH THE LOWER 80S.
THE RIDGE WILL NUDGE SOUTH THOUGH AS A FRONTAL TROUGH SAGS INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THE RIDGE AXIS POSITION SHIFTING SOUTH OF OKEECHOBEE WILL PLACE MOST OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA IN A MORE FAVORED MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ZONE.
THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE AS A BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH THE AREA AND THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. STARTED TO LOWER POPS IN NW AL AROUND 21Z AS THE TROUGH AXIS BEGINS TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA AND DRIER AIR BEGINS TO MOVE TOWARDS NW AL. MANY SITES ARE CURRENTLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. AT 5H AN UPPER TROF AXIS EXTENDED ACROSS WRN TN/MS. THIS TROF WILL KEEP A GOOD CHC OF SHRA/TSRA AT BOTH TAF SITES FROM THIS MRNG THRU ARND 03Z THIS EVENING.
638 AM CDT THU AUG 6 2015 AN ANALYSIS OF THE 850MB 00Z CHART DEPICTED A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OFF TO OUR EAST. WITH A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER WYOMING. THE 500 MB CHART ALSO DEPICTED A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NATIONS MID SECTION. AS WELL AS AN AREA OF HEIGHTFALLS AROUND A DEEPENING TROUGH NEAR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. A SURFACE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE 850 MB LOW WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA LATER TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT.
AN UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO MAKE PROGRESS ACROSS WESTERN TENNESSEE THIS MORNING GENERATING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND EVEN SOME THUNDER.
WINDS GENERALLY OUT OF THE WEST-NORTHWEST FOR A MUCH COOLER MORNING THAN THE LAST. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE REGION WITH CLOUDS BUILDING OUT OF THE SOUTH.
RAIN CHANCES NOW LOOK MINIMAL AT BEST WITH THE UPPER RIDGE SITUATED OVER TEXAS BUILDING OVER THE AREA.
COOLER AND DRIER NIGHT FOLLOWS A SIMILAR AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. COOLER TO THE NORTHWEST WHERE SKIES CLEAR FASTER.
EXPECTING A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL OR IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.
WEAK RIDGE WAS THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE. HIGH PRESSURE SPRAWLED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITH CALM TO LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW ACROSS OUR AREA. SKIES WERE PARTLY CLOUDY WITH TEMPERATURES AT 2 AM RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO THE LOWER 60S. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THE AREA DRY TODAY WITH SOME INCREASE IN CUMULUS DUE TO INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING. WILL BE WATCHING A FAIRLY VIGOROUS MID-LEVEL TROUGH MOVE ACROSS THE DAKOTAS INTO NORTHERN MN.
AN AREA OF CONVERGENCE STRETCHES SOUTHEAST OF THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE INTO EXTREME EASTERN ARKANSAS INTO NW MISSISSIPPI. THE COLD FRONT TO THE NORTH WILL PUSH SOUTH INTO SW TN CENTRAL ARKANSAS. AS WE WILL REMAIN IN NW FLOW WITH ENERGY FROM AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER WEST VIRGINIA ADVECTING VORTICITY INTO THE AREA.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM TODAY/TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BRING SEASONABLY COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY IN MOST LOCATIONS.
1130 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015 THE MIDWEST REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER ONTARIO.
651 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015 THE MIDWEST REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER ONTARIO.
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE ARKLATEX INTO NORTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI TO ALABAMA. TEMPS RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 50S NORTH TO MID 60S SOUTH. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 40S TO LOW 50S. RAINFALL CHANCES SHOULD DIMINISH DURING THE AFTERNOON AS A BROAD MODERATELY STRONG MID LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS OUT OF THE PLAINS.
848 PM EDT WED APR 22 2015 UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL MAINTAIN COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEK. AS THIS SYSTEM EXITS THIS EVENING AND AREA OF DRYING WORKS EAST FROM CENTRAL OHIO WITH ONLY SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE I-80 CORRIDOR AND IN THE RIDGES LATER TONIGHT. ANOTHER COOL AND MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY THURSDAY WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BRINGING LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH AND RIDGES.
THE RAP AND NEW NAM SHOW THE LOW LEVELS DRYING OUT FROM THE DELLS TO MADISON TO JANESVILLE AND WEST. THE LOW LEVELS REMAIN MORE MOIST NORTH TOWARD SHEBOYGAN.
A WEAK COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH THE TERMINALS WITH A SLIGHT WIND SHIFT BEHIND THE FRONT.
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TO THE WEST OVER TX/OK AND MOVE INTO THE AREA ALONG A COLD FRONT MOST LIKELY AFTER 23/06Z.
THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY.
AND MUST OBVIOUSLY BE ELEVATED CONSIDERING THE LOW LEVEL DRY AIR. JUST AIRMASS CONVECTION EXPECTED MAINLY OVER THE SOUTH AS SURFACE WARM FRONT FINALLY MAKES IT INTO THE AREA.
1208 AM EDT THU APR 23 2015 UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL MAINTAIN COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEK. NO REAL CHANGES WERE NECESSARY FOR THE NEAR TERM FORECAST AS THE COLD CORE UPPER LOW CENTERED TO THE NORTH OF LAKE HURON THIS MORNING.
841 PM MDT WED APR 22 2015 COMPLEX FLOW PATTERN OVER THE AREA WITH UPPER LOWS TO THE NORTHWEST AND SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA. AND A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT DRAPED OVER THE AREA. A DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL WORK ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA TONIGHT. A FLATTENING UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST AND DEFLECT MOST OF THE ENERGY OVER NORTHERN MONTANA.
723 PM EDT WED APR 22 2015 UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL MAINTAIN COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEK. AS THIS SYSTEM EXITS THIS EVENING ONLY SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL REMAIN MAINLY ACROSS THE I-80 CORRIDOR AND IN THE RIDGES. ANOTHER COOL AND CLOUDY DAY THURSDAY WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BRINGING LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH AND RIDGES.
/REV HIGH PRESSURE TO MOVE OVERHEAD WITH SFC PRES GRADIENT LOOSENING. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED WITH THE HIGH IN PLACE. HAVE MAJORITY OF THE CWA AT FREEZING OR BELOW. BUT GIVEN THE FACT WE HAVE BEEN WARMER THAN AVERAGE THROUGH EARLY APRIL WILL GO AHEAD AND ISSUE A FREEZE HEADLINE FOR THESE TEMPERATURES. BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHEAST PART OF THE STATE WITH AN EXTRA BOOST FROM RADIATIONAL COOLING.
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 47 67 42 69 / 20 10 10 30 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 42 63 36 68 / 10 0 0 10 OAK RIDGE, TN 41 64 36 68 / 10 0 0 20 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 37 62 32 65 / 10 0 0 10.
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE STATE WILL BE A LITTLE WEAKER THAN IT WAS TODAY. SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY BUT DEWPOINTS STILL ONLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S SO CAPE VALUES STILL ONLY UPWARDS OF 800J/KG. SURFACE TROF STILL OVER EASTERN PLAINS WITH CONTINUED SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW OVER FAR PLAINS.
NORTH AND NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME A BIT GUSTY DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE COLDER AND AND FROST POTENTIAL SHOULD REMAIN ALONG AND NORTH OF THE CRAWLEY'S RIDGE/SHAWNEE HILLS REGION. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD RESULT IN QUIET WEATHER TONIGHT. WILL MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES EAST.
At the surface, high pressure was centered over the area with light northeasterly winds keeping temperatures cooler than normal with afternoon highs only reaching into the mid/upper 50s. The mid-level low should start to pivot a bit further east tonight into Thursday as a weak mid-level ridge develops over the Central and Southern Plains. Have trended more toward the cloud cover being few to scattered and, thus, have continued to trend on the lower side of temperatures with lows in the mid/upper 30s north to near 40 degrees south, but will need to closely monitor conditions through the overnight hours. With winds shifting to the southeast on Thursday, expect afternoon temperatures to be a few degrees warmer than today with highs reaching into the low/mid 60s.
748 PM EDT WED APR 22 2015 A COLD FRONT IS PUSHING INTO FAR NW GA THIS EVENING. /39 SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTH GA THIS EVENING AND INTO CENTRAL GA BY THURSDAY MORNING.
THE COLD FRONT THAT KICKED OF THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING IS NOW SOUTH OF THE AREA. DEWPOINTS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 30S TO LOWER 40S ARE IN NW TN AS OF 0230Z. WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE MIDWEST REGION WE WILL REMAIN UNDER A NW/N FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS AND SHOULD HELP TO KEEP ALL SHOWER ACTIVITY WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA. THE ONLY CONCERN IS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE TX PANHANDLE. AS THIS LOW STRENGTHENS AND LIFTS N THIS EVENING. BUT BELIEVE THE LOW IS A LITTLE TO FAR REMOVED FROM THE AREA TO DO SO AND THE DRY AIR SHOULD WIN OUT.
CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG COLD FRONT JUST WEST OF PALESTINE TEXAS SLOWLY DRIFTING EAST.
813 PM EDT WED APR 22 2015 AN APPROACHING WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY.
733 PM EDT WED APR 22 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST TONIGHT. THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS LOW PRESSURE ONLY SLOWLY MOVES INTO THE MARITIMES. 725 PM UPDATE: HRLY TEMPS WERE ADJUSTED TO FIT THE CURRENT OBS AND SHOW A BIT WARMER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. THE ACCOMPANYING UPPER LEVEL LOW IS ACROSS ONTARIO THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THU PM. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION RIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE COULD EVEN BE SOME SNOW MIXED IN AT NIGHT MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NORTH AND WEST.
1054 PM EDT WED APR 22 2015 AN APPROACHING WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF P.
DEBRIS CLOUD FROM THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL KEEP CLOUDY SKIES OVER S-CENTRAL IDAHO AND BOISE MTNS INTO THURSDAY MORNING WHEN PASSAGE OF AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL USHER IN DRIER CONDITIONS.
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND SPREAD NE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND SW MT THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE REGION.
COLD FRONT SEEMS TO BE THROUGH ALL BUT OUR EXTREME SRN AND ERN COUNTIES AT EARLY EVENING. CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 47 67 42 69 / 20 10 10 30 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 42 63 36 68 / 10 0 0 10 OAK RIDGE, TN 41 64 36 68 / 10 0 0 20 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 37 62 32 65 / 10 0 0 10.
VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS THE LOW CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED OUT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THOSE IN JACKSON COUNTY THAT ARE HUGGING THE CASCADES AND SISKIYOUS. SOME CUMULUS HAS BUBBLED UP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SISKIYOU, MODOC, AND LAKE COUNTIES. TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY AND WE EXPECT THESE SEASONAL NORMS TO CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OVERHEAD TONIGHT AHEAD OF A QUICK MOVING FRONT DUE IN THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE GREATEST AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE ALONG THE COAST, THE CASCADES, AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND EVEN THESE AMOUNTS ARE ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS.