Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
226 AM MST Fri Dec 30 2022 MORNING DISCUSSION: Synoptic Setup: Forecast begins with a large trough exiting the Great Plains for teh Mississipppi Valley. To the west, zonal flow is moving trough the Pac Northwest followed by a progressive series of troughs and ridges off the coastline stretching back over the northern Pacific. Meanwhile, a trough running the Length of British Columbia to southern California will move onshore.
338 AM CST Fri Dec 30 2022 A slow-moving cold front will bring widespread showers to locations east of the I-55 corridor today. 09z/3am surface analysis shows a cold front along I-55.
515 AM CST Fri Dec 30 2022 (Today and tonight) The trough axis to our west currently producing rain and snow (in higher elevations) in southern New Mexico will shift east across our area this afternoon and evening. The best lift associated with the trough across southern New Mexico will be shunted to the south as the trough axis sharpens this morning and afternoon. Weak west- northwest surface flow overnight has kept boundary layer moisture recovery out ahead of the trough non-existent. Cloud cover and slightly cooler temperatures aloft than yesterday will help cool surface temperatures somewhat from yesterday's values, but still slightly above normal, in the mid to upper 50s on the Caprock, upper 50s to lower 60s over the Rolling Plains.
There is some signs of low level moisture, so some very light snow or perhaps some freezing drizzle cannot be completely ruled out.
That weak wave in the mid level flow will track over our area today bringing snow showers to the high country. More Pacific moisture will flow into the Absarokas/Beartooths tonight resulting in periods of snow in the high country. The lower elevations from Billings west may see a sprinkle or flurry, but low levels remain fairly dry on soundings suggesting mostly virga for the nearby plains. Periods of snow will continue over the high country into Saturday.
(Today and tonight) The trough axis to our west currently producing rain and snow (in higher elevations) in southern New Mexico will shift east across our area this afternoon and evening. The best lift associated with the trough across southern New Mexico will be shunted to the south as the trough axis sharpens this morning and afternoon. Weak west- northwest surface flow overnight has kept boundary layer moisture recovery out ahead of the trough non-existent. Cloud cover and slightly cooler temperatures aloft than yesterday will help cool surface temperatures somewhat from yesterday's values, but still slightly above normal, in the mid to upper 50s on the Caprock, upper 50s to lower 60s over the Rolling Plains.
538 AM EST Fri Dec 30 2022 Limited light rain chances are expected today across Northwest Pennsylvania and Eastern Ohio as a cold front approaches. Widespread rain is expected tonight through Saturday evening as low pressure tracks across the region.
It remains quite warm today with highs in the lower to middle 50s. The rain chances end from west to east on Saturday and it will be noticeably cooler, yet still above normal for late December.
545 AM CST Fri Dec 30 2022 (Today and tonight) An upper level trough will track across the region on Today, further increasing cloud cover over much of the region and bringing some isolated to scattered showers mainly south of the I-20 corridor through this afternoon. The extensive cloud cover and possible showers will help to keep temperatures near seasonal normals, with highs in the upper 50s to mid 60s and overnight lows dipping back down into the lower 40s.
Similar to last night, the Middle and western Upper Keys are experiencing temperatures that are a few degrees below the rest of the island chain because of the cooler air being advected in off the cooler waters by the northeasterly flow. Expansive high pressure in the Western Atlantic will dominate the region through the weekend, and will move to the east. New Year's Eve is shaping up very nicely, and anyone who is out and about in the Florida Keys can expect low temperatures in the lower 70s and rain-free conditions.
A warmer start to this morning with patchy low clouds and fog expected to clear up after sunrise. On tap for today, high pressure dominating along the Eastern Seaboard begins to slowly move off into the Atlantic, while upper level trough approaches the Southeast. The highest chances of showers today should lay in areas along the Nature Coast today, and a rumble of thunder may also be possible. Going into the Holiday weekend, the aforementioned upper level low and associated cold front should struggle to make it across the peninsula. Model guidance has been persistent in keeping the highest chances in northern and central portions of the state.
(Today and tonight) An upper level trough will track across the region on Today, further increasing cloud cover over much of the region and bringing some isolated to scattered showers mainly south of the I-20 corridor through this afternoon. The extensive cloud cover and possible showers will help to keep temperatures near seasonal normals, with highs in the upper 50s to mid 60s and overnight lows dipping back down into the lower 40s.
At the upper levels, weak zonal flow will keep the area dry with highs generally a touch warmer than yesterday: from the mid teens northeast to the lower 30s southwest. Expect some subsidence in the afternoon across the west and into portions of the central which should promote some clearing and slightly warmer temperatures. Highs will range from around 20 northeast to the low to mid 30s southwest.
550 AM CST Fri Dec 30 2022 A slow-moving cold front will bring widespread showers to locations east of the I-55 corridor today. 09z/3am surface analysis shows a cold front along I-55.
339 AM CST Fri Dec 30 2022 Key Messages: - Dry weather with warmer than normal temperatures over the weekend.
Temps will be slightly above average levels, with highs mostly in the mid 30s to mid 40s each day, a bit cooler over far northwest SD today. Attention for the beginning of 2023 turns to an upper trough that is still well off the west coast at this time, but will move quickly onto the west coast Saturday and across the western US later in the weekend.
Temperatures have already warmed into the low to mid 60s across the area - well above NBM forecast highs - so had to raise highs several degrees across the board, and they could still be too low as some locations could hit 70 before the rain moves in. (Today through Saturday) A broad moisture plume is showing up on satellite imagery this evening west of the Mississippi River that is riding along a cold front headed our way.
Lows tonight dip into the low/mid 30s for our northwest half but it will likely be too dry for precip by the time it is cold enough for snow. Removed precip after 18Z and most locations will likely be dry by 15Z as dampening trough passes and frontal zone quickly exits. Increasing concern for brief/light precip Sat night as warm front lifts through the region. Though surface temps may be just slightly above freezing anticipate any precip that falls will be liquid given degree of warm air just above the surface (925mb temps climbing to around 7C).
(The rest of today ) Cooler conditions in store for the forecast area today with light northerly winds over the area. Have adjusted high temps across most locations up a degree or so per mos guidance and 12z obs suggest warmer max temps than indicated by the current forecast.
1025 AM CST Fri Dec 30 2022 (Today through Saturday) A weak cold front will be pushing through the region early this morning. Even then, temperatures will still remain above normal for late December with upper 70s to lower 80s today and Saturday with overnight lows in the lower to middle 50s tonight.
1112 AM CST Fri Dec 30 2022 (The rest of today ) Cooler conditions in store for the forecast area today with light northerly winds over the area. Have adjusted high temps across most locations up a degree or so per mos guidance and 12z obs suggest warmer max temps than indicated by the current forecast.
1148 AM EST Fri Dec 30 2022 Strong high pressure will continue to slowly move offshore. A weakened cold front will track into the region on New Year's Eve. As for shower activity, it is not expected to make much eastward progress this afternoon, as it remains closer to the core of the low-level jet over the OH Valley.
High pressure over the western Atlantic will push further seaward today ahead of a trough moving through the central US. Winds veering S tonight, then S/SW into tomorrow, as high pressure drifts further into the Atlantic, remaining around 10-15kts.
Additional snowfall will occur in the higher elevations, with rain or a rain/snow mix in the valleys. Winter Weather Advisories and a Winter Storm Storm Warning are in effect for most of the high elevation areas in southwest Idaho until noon today.
Aloft, high pressure over Cuba will help bring in slightly drier air into the area tonight and tomorrow, while an approaching frontal boundary will move across the eastern Gulf of Mexico into North- Central FL.
(This evening through Saturday) An upper level trough is currently tracking across West Central Texas resulting in isolated to scattered light showers. As the trough axis moves east of the area, skies will slowly clear from west to east overnight. Expect overnight lows in the low to mid 40s. Expect above normal temperatures, with highs in the low to mid 70s.
207 PM EST Fri Dec 30 2022 High pressure over the area continues to lose its grip over the area as moisture increases from the south. Rain is likely Saturday as a cold front crosses the area.
1036 AM EST Fri Dec 30 2022 Widespread rain showers are expected early tomorrow morning ahead of an approaching cold front.
(Through tonight ) Some mid and high level cloudiness will drift across the area overnight as a weak upper trough traverses the area.
Added a slight chance of light snow along the low over far northern North Dakota, but any accumulations should be very light.
Cloud cover and lowered heights associated with the trough will result in a more chilly day today, with high temperatures reaching the 50s and 60s. Clouds will clear quickly on the backside of the trough later this afternoon, helping lead to another cool night with temperatures falling into the 30s and low 40s by morning. Stronger southwesterly flow will develop tomorrow afternoon, helping to increase 850mb temperatures though displacing the thermal ridge axis to our east some. This will allow for a much warmer day tomorrow, with many locations reaching the upper 60s to low 70s by tomorrow afternoon. With this, have upgraded the High Wind Watch to a High Wind Warning here for tomorrow.
1108 AM CST Fri Dec 30 2022 (Today and tonight) An upper level trough will track across the region on Today, further increasing cloud cover over much of the region and bringing some isolated to scattered showers mainly south of the I-20 corridor through this afternoon. The extensive cloud cover and possible showers will help to keep temperatures near seasonal normals, with highs in the upper 50s to mid 60s and overnight lows dipping back down into the lower 40s.
139 PM EST Fri Dec 30 2022 A slow moving cold front will become our main weather feature through New Years Eve, bringing periods of rain for Saturday and Saturday night.
After a day of record setting, remarkably spring feeling weather, a cold front has now progressed through most of Iowa, and will be moving through Illinois before sunrise. High temperatures at all places today have already been set at Midnight, with temperatures falling to the upper 20s and lower 30s behind the cold front through 2 AM, likely falling to the lower 20s northwest to lower 30s east by sunrise. Clouds will be the main problem for today's forecast, as models show cloudy skies through the day, but looking at satellite, we are more patchy than the models show behind the cold front.
Surface analysis depicted high pressure centered over central Kansas, and extended northward into the upper Mississippi River Valley. A cold front was off to our east, stretching from central Michigan southwest into central Arkansas and northern Texas. Look for lows to drop back into the low to mid 20s tonight. The high will exit tomorrow, and attention will turn to an approaching disturbance from the west.
Attention then turns toward a digging eastern Pac upper trough entering the western CONUS.
While the GFS is the more northerly track, profiles for KABR/KATY show less of a warm layer influence on p-type, with any freezing precipitation generation being the response to a lack of ice in the dendritic growth zone.
1246 PM EST Fri Dec 30 2022 Strong high pressure will continue to slowly move offshore. A weakened cold front will track into the region on New Year's Eve. As for shower activity, it is not expected to make much eastward progress this afternoon, as it remains closer to the core of the low-level jet over the OH Valley.
1122 AM CST Fri Dec 30 2022 (Today and tonight) The trough axis to our west currently producing rain and snow (in higher elevations) in southern New Mexico will shift east across our area this afternoon and evening. The best lift associated with the trough across southern New Mexico will be shunted to the south as the trough axis sharpens this morning and afternoon. Weak west- northwest surface flow overnight has kept boundary layer moisture recovery out ahead of the trough non-existent. Cloud cover and slightly cooler temperatures aloft than yesterday will help cool surface temperatures somewhat from yesterday's values, but still slightly above normal, in the mid to upper 50s on the Caprock, upper 50s to lower 60s over the Rolling Plains.
Consider the temperature and dewpoint moderation complete this afternoon, with sunshine, temperatures in the upper 70s to lower 80s, and dewpoints in the lower 70s. The drying in the lower troposphere assisted in deeper, more substantial mixing enabling winds to become southeast in most locations.
Aloft, the upper level trough continues to approach north of the Florida Peninsula.
527 PM CST Fri Dec 30 2022 (This evening through Saturday) An upper level trough is currently tracking across West Central Texas resulting in isolated to scattered light showers. As the trough axis moves east of the area, skies will slowly clear from west to east overnight. Expect overnight lows in the low to mid 40s. Expect above normal temperatures, with highs in the low to mid 70s.
In addition, gusty west- southwest winds will impact ridges and coastal headlands this evening.
A pre-frontal trough will push across the Florida panhandle tonight. Increasing warm air/moisture advection over the relatively cooler Gulf waters will lead to the development of sea fog which will advect locally onshore late tonight and early Saturday morning. Area of showers and isolated thunderstorms associated with the pre-frontal trough will spread slowly across the nature coast and west central Florida on Saturday. Aloft, the upper level trough continues to approach north of the Florida Peninsula.
534 PM CST Fri Dec 30 2022 (Through tonight ) Some mid and high level cloudiness will drift across the area overnight as a weak upper trough traverses the area.
Saturday/New Year's Eve: As low-amplitude upper ridging establishes across the southern Plains, dry and warm surface conditions are expected to develop. Afternoon temperatures will range from the low-60s across northern Oklahoma to low-70s in the Red River Valley. The first few hours of 2023 will likely include gradually increasing cloud cover with temperatures in the low-40s north to mid-50s south.
As the low exits Ohio this morning, a trailing cold front will cross the state from west to east during the day, ending any lingering rainfall.
630 PM EST Fri Dec 30 2022 High pressure over the area continues to lose its grip over the area as moisture increases from the south. Rain is likely Saturday as a cold front crosses the area.
Snow has moved into the mountains, so the high PoPs look on track. Basically a prolonged period of light to moderate snowfall on the higher west facing slopes. Warmer on Saturday with temperatures in the mid/upper 40s, enough to keep melting some of the snow from the last storm.
715 PM EST Fri Dec 30 2022 A slow moving cold front will become our main weather feature through New Years Eve, bringing periods of rain for Saturday and Saturday night.
A flat ridge of high pressure was beginning to move across Arizona during the afternoon. Over the next 24 hours this high pressure system will move across Arizona. The main influence of this high will be a milder air mass and climbing snow levels.
501 PM EST Fri Dec 30 2022 A slow moving cold front will become our main weather feature through New Years Eve, bringing periods of rain for Saturday and Saturday night.
Cliff MORNING DISCUSSION: Synoptic Setup: Forecast begins with a large trough exiting the Great Plains for the Mississippi Valley. To the west, zonal flow is moving trough the Pac Northwest followed by a progressive series of troughs and ridges off the coastline stretching back over the northern Pacific. Meanwhile, a trough running the Length of British Columbia to southern California will move onshore.
536 PM CST Fri Dec 30 2022 (This afternoon through Saturday Night) Strong WAA today out ahead of an approaching upper trough has allowed temperatures to soar into the 60s to near 70 areawide this afternoon. Meanwhile, light rain continues to spread into our western counties this afternoon ahead of an upper trough over Texas.
639 PM EST Fri Dec 30 2022 A slow moving cold front will become our main weather feature through New Years Eve, bringing periods of rain for Saturday and Saturday night.
Basically a prolonged period of light to moderate snowfall on the higher west facing slopes. Warmer on Saturday with temperatures in the mid/upper 40s, enough to keep melting some of the snow from the last storm.
825 PM EST Fri Dec 30 2022 High pressure over the area continues to lose its grip over the area as moisture increases from the south. Rain is likely Saturday as a cold front crosses the area.
1227 AM EST Sat Dec 31 2022 A slow moving cold front will move through Central PA right before the new year rings in.
Snow has moved into the mountains, so the high PoPs look on track. Basically a prolonged period of light to moderate snowfall on the higher west facing slopes. Warmer on Saturday with temperatures in the mid/upper 40s, enough to keep melting some of the snow from the last storm. On Sunday, the flow aloft becomes south-southwesterly by the end of the day with an approaching upper trough/closed low.
(Today through Sunday) A cold front is poised to move across Middle Tennessee during the next several hours. Daytime highs this weekend will remain unseasonably warm but Saturday night's lows will be several degrees cooler owing to the effects of today's fropa.
816 PM MST Fri Dec 30 2022 Evening Update: NBM temperatures were a bit warmer north of the Missouri River and cooler for Garfield County compared to actual observations, so blended some high resolution models to better capture the latest trends. -Enriquez MORNING DISCUSSION: Synoptic Setup: Forecast begins with a large trough exiting the Great Plains for the Mississippi Valley. To the west, zonal flow is moving trough the Pac Northwest followed by a progressive series of troughs and ridges off the coastline stretching back over the northern Pacific. Meanwhile, a trough running the Length of British Columbia to southern California will move onshore.
) Snow and freezing drizzle are possible at times through Sunday night.
1038 PM CST Fri Dec 30 2022 (This evening through Saturday) An upper level trough is currently tracking across West Central Texas resulting in isolated to scattered light showers. As the trough axis moves east of the area, skies will slowly clear from west to east overnight. Expect overnight lows in the low to mid 40s. Expect above normal temperatures, with highs in the low to mid 70s.
/NEW/ /Overnight through New Year's Day/ An upper trough is departing the region this evening and will take the mid and upper cloud cover with it as it pulls off to the northeast. The trough will be replaced by modest westerly flow aloft later today. High temperatures will climb into the lower 80s across our southwest and into the upper 70s along the I-35 corridor.
1019 PM EST Fri Dec 30 2022 A slow moving cold front will move through Central PA right before the new year rings in.
High pressure aloft will build over the area on Sunday for a mostly dry day.
1042 PM EST Fri Dec 30 2022 A slow moving cold front will move through Central PA right before the new year rings in.
High pressure aloft over Cuba will help bring in slightly drier air into the area while the approaching frontal boundary will move across the eastern Gulf of Mexico. To the north, the frontal boundary will stall over Central Florida as the high pressure to our south holds.
135 AM EST Sat Dec 31 2022 High pressure over the area continues to lose its grip over the area as moisture increases from the south. Rain is likely Saturday as a cold front crosses the area.
That does not mean that areas of western MT will not wake to a trace of snow or slick spots from spotty freezing rain.
(Today) Light radar returns were present across the TN Valley early this morning as a broad region of isentropic upglide overspread the Southeast ahead of an approaching cold front. Otherwise, look for high temperatures to peak in the low to mid 60s this afternoon.
A modified Gulf airmass was in place underneath an upper level trough of low pressure that was translating eastward over the region.
Surface winds: SE-SW 5-15 kt, except 10- 20 kt over the higher terrain near the Nevada border. Snow levels will lower as colder air arrives with the developing upper trough over the region. The upper trough will slowly exit the region to the east Sunday through Sunday night.
At the surface, low pressure remains situated along the Colorado Front Range. Aloft, a trough of low pressure was center over Texas, spreading northeast away from the Plains. Through the weekend, expect benign weather across the High Plains as slight upper level ridging moves overhead. Overall though, the pattern should be zonal flow which will leave low pressure entrenched along the Colorado Front Range.
At the surface, the forecast area resides in between weak high pressure to our east and weak low pressure to our west. A weak warm front will slowly move from west to east across the state this morning, shifting winds to out of the southwest or west. The best chance for substantial clearing will be southwest where we should see some highs in the low to mid 30s. Tonight's lows will generally be in the low to mid single digits above zero north to the low to mid teens south (warmest southwest).
Despite cloud coverage well above normal highs are expected this weekend as we see upper heights rise out ahead of the incoming trough.
A cold front will stall and diminish over the northern coastal waters today.
649 AM EST Sat Dec 31 2022 A slow moving cold front will move through Central PA as the New Year rings in.
426 AM EST Sat Dec 31 2022 A slow moving cold front will move through Central PA as the New Year rings in.
High temperatures will, once again, be above average with some locations even climbing into the low 70s across north TX.
559 AM CST Sat Dec 31 2022 (Today through Sunday) A cold front is poised to move across Middle Tennessee during the next several hours. Daytime highs this weekend will remain unseasonably warm but Saturday night's lows will be several degrees cooler owing to the effects of today's fropa.
(Today and tonight) The mild trend in overnight lows continues early this morning with warmer mid-level temperatures continuing to spread across the region despite northwest orientation of upper flow.
545 AM CST Sat Dec 31 2022 (Today) Light radar returns were present across the TN Valley early this morning as a broad region of isentropic upglide overspread the Southeast ahead of an approaching cold front. Otherwise, look for high temperatures to peak in the low to mid 60s this afternoon.