Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Medium Primary upper low vicinity MI U. will lift northeast this period with trough axis hanging back into the area. Cloud cover persists into Saturday with the trough in place with more of a northwest wind. Expecting highs in the low/mid 40s.
A trough digging over the upper Mississippi Valley, with an occluding low over the western Great Lakes, pushes a cold front towards us tonight. Given the clouds and continued mixing, low temperatures will be warmer than during recent mornings, with readings up to 10 degrees above normal. This will help to enhance precipitation totals in areas east of Pittsburgh, especially along the ridges.
Winds will go light as this high builds in tonight.
606 PM EDT Fri Oct 27 2017 Potential Tropical Cyclone 18 is in the northwestern Caribbean. Even though the tropical disturbance has formed into a Potential Tropical Cyclone the impacts for South Florida have not changed. Marine conditions will rapidly deteriorate Saturday as Potential Tropical Cyclone 18 moves into the area bringing an increase in tropical moisture.
Early this morning, a closed mid-level low was centered just west of the Great Lakes region, with a mid-level trough extending southward across the central CONUS. At the surface, high pressure was steadily advancing southeastward across the central U. behind the yesterday's exiting cold front. Satellite imagery showed areas of stratus still in place behind the cold front across much of northeast and east central KS, with some of this cloud cover trying to scatter out across portions of central KS. As this cloud cover scatters out through sunrise, expect continued cold-air advection to cause temperatures to drop into the low/mid 30s across far northeast and east central KS, with readings plunging into the upper 20s across north central KS.
High pressure will continue to promote coastal low clouds and dry conditions for inland areas. Coastal clouds and dry weather will continue over the next several days as high pressure dominates the forecast with the stratus surging on and off land.
353 PM CDT Fri Oct 27 2017 Northwest winds will gradually diminish overnight, allowing temperatures to fall below freezing across all of eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas. The freeze warning will continue for tonight, and will also issue a freeze warning for Saturday night, as most places will once again fall below freezing. A return to light southerly winds Saturday night signals that the lower valleys will see their coldest readings that night, with the relatively higher elevations not being quite as cold as they will be tonight.
Strong Morning Winds and Freezing Night-Time Temperatures. A strong cold front, which has moved across West Central Texas, will produce gusty winds, from the north this morning, along with conditions tonight favorable for freezing temperatures. Under lots of sunshine today, highs will be cooler than seasonal normals, mainly in the mid to upper 50s.
590 DM upper high centered off the Oregon coast will be the main synoptic feature to influence our weather over the weekend. High weakens to upper ridge Saturday.
A cold front continues to advance east across the forecast area this afternoon. Will hang onto showers in the forecast until mid-level trof advances through followed by sharply drier air.
Areas north of a Hays to Dodge to Garden and Syracuse/Johnson line appear to have a great chance of meeting the true Hard Freeze criteria this morning (28 F or cooler for at least 4 hours). The low relative humidity and gusty winds will lead to significant fire weather risk (see fire weather section in this discussion below). Widespread subfreezing temperatures are expected tonight, with low lying areas of the Ark valley possible bottoming out in the teens by 12Z Saturday.
440 PM CDT Fri Oct 27 2017 After a cool day where our highs struggled to reach 50 today, temperatures are expected to rebound into the upper 50s to lower 60s tomorrow, as the upper level trough shifts eastward.
With clouds and rain associated with the cooler air, expecting non- diurnal temperature trend as colder air pushes in from the west-- the western sections will likely have their max temp early in the morning.
314 PM EDT Fri Oct 27 2017 High pressure will slowly retreat to the NE away from central North Carolina.
638 PM EDT Fri Oct 27 2017 High pressure will crest over the area overnight then move east of the region on Saturday.
18 UTC surface analysis shows a cold front moving into Western Mississippi and Central Louisiana. Weak return flow ahead of the cold front has brought low to mid 60s dewpoints into coastal areas of the Central Gulf Coast States. It is however, warmer this afternoon than yesterday with highs expected to top out in the upper 70s. Overnight, the cold front will continue moving eastward.
SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday Night): The highly anticipated cold front currently extends from the Mid Valley, already east of McAllen, northeastward into the middle of Kenedy County and into the coastal waters. The front will continue to sweep southward through the afternoon with only some isolated showers expected near and along the coast as the front interacts with the higher moisture levels there. Meanwhile, the main concerns will be the high winds as the front moves south, with winds gusts of 30 to maybe 35 mph as it comes through initially. The front will reach the Lower Valley in the next one to two hours and have kept the Wind Advisory in place. Winds will stay elevated through the overnight hours as the surface pressure gradient remains strong with high pressure building across the Southern Plains.
Gusty northwest winds will continue through today, creating wind chills in the 20s this morning as temperatures continue to fall into the middle 30s, then a nominal recovery into the lower to mid 40s is expected this afternoon with both increasing cloud cover and cold-air advection limiting diurnal temperature rises. These below-freezing temperatures will be prolonged during the early morning hours Saturday, which will somewhat mitigate the more marginal low temperatures and help to end the growing season across the forecast area.
137 PM EDT Fri Oct 27 2017 Cool high pressure crossing the region will move offshore. A cold front will cross the area Saturday night bringing a chance of showers.
330 PM CDT Fri Oct 27 2017 Northwest flow continues aloft on the southwest side of the upper low over Wisconsin. Went ahead and expanded the Freeze Warning into Washington, Clay, and Dickinson counties where freezing temperatures this morning were not widespread.
Cooler for the valley and east as clouds limit warming and especially in areas with snow cover.
413 PM EDT Fri Oct 27 2017 High pressure will crest over the area tonight then move east of the region on Saturday.
Expect mainly clear conditions tonight as high pressure remains in place over the region.
208 PM MDT Fri Oct 27 2017 A large upper level high pressure ridge along the west coast extending from northern Baja California to northern British Columbia will produce rather strong northerly flow aloft across the northern Rockies.
224 PM MDT Fri Oct 27 2017 Large scale mid/upper level trough extends across the central US, with amplified mid/upper level ridging in place across the far Western US. Tonight-Saturday: The upper level trough shifts eastward and the western US ridge begins to transition eastward. High temps on Saturday will be warmer in the 50s, and if we have more clearing it is possible we may reach seasonal normals (lower 60s).
652 PM EDT Fri Oct 27 2017 High pressure will remain offshore and large scale troughing will be over the eastern U. A cold front will cross the area Saturday night bringing a chance of showers.
/issued 316 AM CDT Fri Oct 27 2017/ upper trough swinging through Central Plains with an upper ridge over the Western US. The trough axis will slowly move east but will be slow to exit the region. A strong cold front blew in last evening with with a gusty north wind and dusty conditions. After unseasonably warm temperatures yesterday in the 80s it will be much cooler today with area highs mainly in the 50s. light wind and dry air will combine for efficient radiational cooling with readings falling to or below freezing for many locations.
Below normal temperatures will prevail today behind the cold front, especially across eastern New Mexico.
American models have remained fairly consistent over the past couple of days with regard to timing/location of the upper low near/east of the Mississippi River early this morning, then tracking east into Wisconsin by late in the day. Fairly strong signal in guidance to err towards the cooler side of guidance, and with potential for lingering snow cover have nudge highs down.
Tonight temps will be cool once again but not as cool as the past few nights with lows in the low to mid 70s.
A strong area of low pressure, currently over northern Wisconsin, will continue pushing east of the region today. With high temperatures peaking in the lower 40s, RH values should fall below 20 percent west river.
1259 PM CDT Fri Oct 27 2017 The cold front has cleared the Southeast Texas terminals early this afternoon, with north to northwest winds 10-15 knots behind the front gusting into the 20-25 knot range. /ISSUED 1004 AM CDT Fri Oct 27 2017/ Cold front continues to shift across southeast TX this morning, moving into the coastal counties by 15z.
The existing freeze warning will also be left in tact this morning, but due to the extensive cloud cover, some areas may not get down to freezing at all this morning in extreme southeast NE and southwest IA, and certainly not a hard, killing freeze.
Temperatures in the single digits and teens will be common under high pressure. Thankfully winds will be light so wind chills will only feel minimally cooler than the temperature. Tomorrow a trough will approach western North Dakota. This will allow warmer westerly winds to push into the area bringing temperatures up into the 50s across western North Dakota.
A high pressure over the northeast coast of United States this afternoon will move northeast tonight.
101 PM CDT Fri Oct 27 2017 The cold front continues to advance across the region this afternoon with a narrow band of showers immediately along the frontal boundary and a second shower band about 90 miles ahead of the front. Main issue again today will be showers/storms and elevated winds associated with a cold front, expected to pass the area this afternoon. A Canadian cold front is quickly moving south and southeast across North Texas and Arkansas. Aloft a short wave is dropping southeast across the plains helping to amplify the the already in place trough. Instability will be limited, however enough lift will be present to provide a few thunderstorms and scattered to widespread showers as the cold front sweeps through. Tonight along the coast a wind adv may be needed as more mixing is expected near the warmer waters.
A strong cold front is currently moving through the region.
412 PM CDT Fri Oct 27 2017 The aforementioned cold front has finally pushed across the region, leaving behind windy and cooler conditions. Temperatures will likely fall to near or below freezing at several locations across portions of SE Oklahoma, SW Arkansas, and NE Texas.
The dry low-level air should evaporate most of this before reaching the ground, while the evaporative cooling should also favor any precip reaching the ground as snow, with wet bulb temps below freezing.
Clear skies and noticeably lighter winds dominate Central Montana into Saturday as high pressure builds into the region from the west.
The QPF fields show a tad of measurable precipitation in the high mountains north of I-70 later tonight into Saturday morning. (Saturday night through Friday) Issued at 252 PM MDT Fri Oct 27 2017 Skies will clear Saturday night as an upper level ridge in the northwest flow aloft pass over the state.
1212 PM CDT Fri Oct 27 2017 Colder, below normal temperatures will continue to move into the region as high pressure builds. Winds will be much lower today as the positively tilted trough continues to move away from the region. All areas of the CWA will experience freezing temperatures Friday night and into Saturday morning. Saturday will be a little warmer as the winds will be more westerly allowing for some down slope wind.
The Pacific Northwest will be under a strong upper level ridge through the next 24 hours. Mostly clear skies, light winds and good subsidence has led to low level inversions under which patchy fog has developed at the lower elevations and in some mountain valleys. Should see the fog redevelop overnight tonight, though it should be a bit more limited in coverage as the low level air mass will be drying slightly today.
A high pressure ridge over the Pacific coast will continue dry and warming conditions through Saturday, as westerly downslope winds increase over the plains.
240 PM MDT Fri Oct 27 2017 Large scale mid/upper level trough extends across the central US, with amplified mid/upper level ridging in place across the far Western US. Tonight-Saturday: The upper level trough shifts eastward and the western US ridge begins to transition eastward. High temps on Saturday will be warmer in the 50s, and if we have more clearing it is possible we may reach seasonal normals (lower 60s).
252 PM MDT Fri Oct 27 2017 Upper level analysis has large trof shifting into the Great Lakes area and ridge building across the western CONUS. At the surface, low pressure is located across Wisconsin, with high pressure across the Northern Rockies. Upper ridge will remain across the western CONUS with the forecast area on the eastern edge.
628 PM EDT Fri Oct 27 2017 High pressure will remain offshore and large scale troughing will be over the eastern U. A cold front will cross the area Saturday night bringing a chance of showers.
411 PM EDT Fri Oct 27 2017 High pressure will keep our weather mild and fair through Saturday afternoon.
LAPS data shows the approaching cold front to be around Louisville. The cold front is rapidly approaching middle TN.
We will end up in the upper 30s shortly after sunrise this morning before a slow crawl up into the lower and middle 40s by this afternoon. The deep and sharp upper level trough will continue to dig over the region and Upper Midwest today into tomorrow.
352 PM CDT Fri Oct 27 2017 Latest surface analysis revealed a cold front from Ohio to central Tennessee to southwest Louisiana. Temperatures were able to climb up to the lower 70s to near 80 across the forecast area this afternoon. Upper air analysis showed a deep low over Wisconsin and an associated trough axis extending south southwest to north central Texas. 18/FZ The main positively titled trough axis and frontal boundary will continue to push east this evening. Southwest flow in the lower levels will continue to increase moisture ahead of these features. The main trough axis will remain positively tilted and significant veering winds with height is not expected. All in all, trough and frontal passage expected this evening and overnight, good coverage of rain with a few embedded thunderstorms.
The latest short-term guidance suggests temperatures may shy a bit cooler across the east than previously forecast. The significant upper low that brought the strong winds and some of the first snow of the season, albeit only a dusting, is moving slowly away.
Cold front and deep upper low pressure system to head east into the region today. Skies are expected to clear tonight, allowing readings to fall into the lower/mid 30s.
130 PM EDT Fri Oct 27 2017 High pressure into Friday.
We still have a couple obs that are at or below freezing. Once they rise above freezing we'll clean up the NPW product and HWO. Then, by Mon, an upper trough will move into the upper midwest sending a cold front through the region during the day. Freezing temperatures will again be possible mainly across northern OK Tue morning behind this front. The highest chances will likely be near the Red River where strong isentropic ascent is expected. However, the GFS suggests there may be enough moisture accompanying a secondary trough Wed so this may be something to keep an eye on.
511 PM CDT Fri Oct 27 2017 Cold front has pushed well east of all our terminals late this afternoon with any remaining convection having moved east of our terminal sites with the cold front as well. Upper trough axis is still to our west and lift in association with this trough is significant enough that some showers are being squeezed from mid level moisture with the trough. Temperatures aloft have cooled significantly thus that some of the higher dbz echoes this evening could have embedded sleet pellets with it. /issued 412 PM CDT Fri Oct 27 2017/ The aforementioned cold front has finally pushed across the region, leaving behind windy and cooler conditions. Temperatures will likely fall to near or below freezing at several locations across portions of SE Oklahoma, SW Arkansas, and NE Texas.
342 PM CDT Fri Oct 27 2017 Large temperature gradient across the Midsouth this afternoon with most of the area now in the mid 40s behind the cold front, but northeast MS has reached the mid 70s under mostly sunny skies. Widespread showers are occurring behind the cold front as expected, but there has also been isolated convective activity along the leading edge of the rainfall due to enhanced convergence and marginal midlevel lapse rates. The cold front will be through the remainder of the area by 8 PM, with temperatures quickly falling into the 50s in northeast MS.
Strengthening warm advection on the western flank of eroding high pressure will drive temperature about 10 degrees above the averages today. Rain can be expected on Saturday as a cold front leads a high amplitude trough out of the Midwest, and across the Upper Ohio Region. Adjustments for this period included timing tweaks to categorical POPs based on dry slot and trough axis forecasts blended from the latest deterministic trends.
Issued by National Weather Service NASHVILLE TN 357 PM CDT Fri Oct 27 2017 Showers and thunderstorms continue to expand across the ArkLaMiss this afternoon as cold front progresses southeastward, with boundary currently stretching from just west of Vicksburg to near Winona.
/Issued 1023 AM CDT Fri Oct 27 2017/ Strong cold advection is occurring behind the surface cold front which has now moved into south Texas.
432 PM EDT Fri Oct 27 2017 A strong cold front was over central Kentucky at mid afternoon, moving southeast. Temperatures ahead of the front were mostly in the 70s in the JKL forecast area, but were only in the lower 40s over western Kentucky at the same time. The elevation factor becomes more important on Saturday night, as temperatures at higher elevations in the southeast part of the state fall below freezing. That being the case, the higher elevations may see not just snow, but also light freezing rain or freezing drizzle.
345 PM CDT Fri Oct 27 2017 Breezy northwesterly winds are continuing across the local area this afternoon as the pressure gradient has been slow to relax behind a departing area of low pressure now affecting the Great Lakes region. opted to hedge temperatures towards the cooler side of guidance.
High pressure centered along the Pacific Coast will maintain a dry northerly flow across the Great Basin through the weekend. Seasonal temperatures today will give way to a gradual warming trend over the weekend as this high nudges eastward.
The cold front had moved across the area, with much colder air spreading over the region.
630 PM EDT Fri Oct 27 2017 High pressure will slowly retreat to the NE away from central North Carolina.
511 PM EDT Tue Apr 18 2017 Weather pattern will become more active beginning Wednesday and continuing through the rest of the week thanks to a series of low pressure systems.
223 PM MDT Tue Apr 18 2017 Southwest flow has developed aloft across the western half of the CONUS including over the northern plains ahead of a longwave trough slowly moving onshore the Pac NW coast. except across parts of the higher Black Hills. Temps will be cold enough late tonight for rain to mix with or change to snow across the higher Black Hills.
1218 PM CDT Tue Apr 18 2017 Low stratus has redeveloped in some areas southeast of the higher elevation of the Ozarks Plateau where low level moisture and upslope flow has developed with an e to se sfc winds. Light winds will veer to the south with a frontal trough moving into IA/KS late by late in the day.
100 PM CDT Tue Apr 18 2017 Will lower the highs for today as the widespread stratus will inhibit the break up of the cool boundary layer. High pressure moves east tonight with return flow increasing west into central.
Weakly ridged flow is in place across the region with an upstream trough extending over the western Gulf of Mexico.
233 PM CDT Tue Apr 18 2017 Upper ridging takes over today and tomorrow, leading to warming temperatures and hindering any thunderstorm development.
255 PM EDT Tue Apr 18 2017 A stationary front south of the South Carolina border will return northward as a warm front later tonight and Wednesday.
Before the return of more active weather, temperatures under the ridge tomorrow will again rise into the 80s.
This flow will pump additional moisture while in the warm sector of next approaching cold front.
331 PM CDT Tue Apr 18 2017 Warm and breezy conditions return Wednesday with convection developing late in the day well to our north along an advancing cold front.
The ridge axis was shifting east into New Mexico this afternoon, with sunny skies and warm afternoon temperatures across southeast Arizona. 21Z readings in valley locations ranged from the mid 80s in portions of Santa Cruz/Cochise counties to the lower 90s from Tucson west/northwest. The upper ridge across the southwestern United States will flatten over the next 24-36 hours as a storm system moves across the northern Great Basin/northern tier of states.
Lows will continue to remain above average (about 10 degrees above normal) with lows in the low to mid 60s.
300 PM CDT Tue Apr 18 2017 Skies will remain partly cloudy this evening, but an increase is expected late tonight in the northwest as a cold frontal boundary slowly drifts into the area. reaching into the lower 80s across most of the area.
120 PM EDT Tue Apr 18 2017 A stationary front south of the South Carolina border will return northward as a warm front later tonight and Wednesday.
117 PM EDT Tue Apr 18 2017 High pressure will ensure dry weather into Wednesday. The latter half of the week will feature increased rain chances as a series of low pressure systems affect the region. The combination of warm April sun, building heights, and establishing a partial southerly wind component lead to highs about 10 degrees warmer than average today. Warm, moist advection will continue tonight, as high pressure slowly oozes eastward. These could continue through Wednesday afternoon as a weak warm front lifts north of the area, but a focused lifting mechanism is lacking. Increasing easterly/southeasterly winds in the low-levels will dam up moisture and colder air east of the ridges tonight. This should keep these eastern facing slopes cooler than the rest of the forecast area, which will see lows about 10 degrees warmer than average.
Low pressure keeps rain in the forecast through the weekend.
/issued 902 AM EDT Tue Apr 18 2017/ Latest water vapor and upper air analysis this morning shows a southern stream trough over Texas and into the western Gulf of Mexico with the flow then becoming weakly ridged over Florida. At the surface, the high pressure ridge axis extends westward from the western Atlantic across northern Florida, with an east to southeast low-level flow across the local area.
In the low levels, moisture will increase across the northeast plains in southeasterly flow. On Wednesday, the flow is strong and well mixed, so the subsident post-trough environment should bring gusty winds to all of the forecast area including the plains.
At the same time, a weak warm front will continue to lift north across the area. Some showers from this trough may linger into Wednesday afternoon, mainly in the east. Colder and drier air will quickly invade the region as the trough exits, dropping temperatures into the low and mid 30s Wednesday night.