Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
218 AM CDT Sat Mar 27 2021 At 06Z, a warm front was lifting northward into northern MS and central AL. This divided dew points in the 40s to lower 50s north of it, to the lower to middle 60s immediately south of it, and event higher in the lower 70s closer to the Gulf Coast. The greatest risk of damaging winds and possibly tornadoes will be along the warm front (possibly outflow enhanced) over southern middle TN and far northwest AL this afternoon and early this evening. The NAM appears to be a bit slower with the line arriving Sunday morning after 12Z in northwest AL, possibly with the lagging upper trough axis.
A cold frontal zone stretches from near Baudette, through Bagley, to Breckenridge, and continuing to a low pressure center in east central SD attm. For tonight, an upper trough will traverse the region in association with a strong H5 low moving across northern Manitoba. This will bring down a surge of cooler air through the overnight hours, with precipitation chances for portions of the area.
Low relative humidity and gusty west winds ahead of the next approaching cold front will lead to high fire danger from about mid morning through at least the early evening hours.
/issued 413 AM CDT Sat Mar 27 2021/ A warm front is pushing into the area this morning as expected. The warm front should continue to move into west Tennessee this morning, and stall somewhere over the area. It still remains to be seen what will happen obviously but I do have greater confidence in severe storms later in the evening when the cold front moves into the area and provides greater lift, and the atmosphere may have more time to recover. Cooler and drier air will spread through the Midsouth Sunday morning, with rain exiting northeast MS by midmorning Sunday.
529 AM MDT Sat Mar 27 2021 12Z TAF CYCLE Areas of freezing fog are producing LIFR conditions across portions of western NM early this morning, impacting the KGUP and KFMN terminals. High pressure will build in on Sunday and warmer temperatures along with light winds will result.
340 AM MDT Sat Mar 27 2021 The trough axis was still just upstream of the CWA on the 00Z H500 hand analysis chart. As warm air advection moves in behind the trough. That trend will change by Sunday however as heights will continue to rise with flat ridging moving into the Desert Southwest and Central Rockies.
A ridge will move over the region Saturday and Sunday, bringing warmer temperatures and clearing skies across northern Arizona.
551 AM MDT Sat Mar 27 2021 Departing upper trough and cyclonic flow will continue to support slightly unsettled conds today, with one more round of showers.
421 AM CDT Sat Mar 27 2021 WV imagery shows the upper trough over central AZ, and poised to move through West Texas and Southeast New Mexico late this afternoon and evening. This feature has slowed slightly over the past few runs, and trough arrival will not be coincident w/peak heating/mixing this afternoon. Ahead of the trough, westerly downslope warming will provide another day of above-normal temperatures across the area. This evening, a cold front will move through the area, bringing a few hours of gap winds through Guadalupe Pass.
/issued 324 AM CDT Sat Mar 27 2021/ The main cold front is currently moving across the northern Texas Panhandle and is expected to push through the FA by or shortly after sunrise. Temperatures will be cooler than yesterday by roughly 5 degrees or so.
Elongated mid level trough continues to dig into southern AZ this morning while embedded upper speed max traverses the central plains into the midwest regions. Focus for today turns to a progressive cold front surging southeast from southern NE, veering winds to the northwest during the afternoon between 15 and 20 mph sustained.
537 AM MDT Sat Mar 27 2021 The trough axis was still just upstream of the CWA on the 00Z H500 hand analysis chart. As warm air advection moves in behind the trough. That trend will change by Sunday however as heights will continue to rise with flat ridging moving into the Desert Southwest and Central Rockies.
411 AM CDT Sat Mar 27 2021 Active convection is ongoing along the warm front, down around Memphis, where the the gradient to 1000+ MUCAPEs exists. Some 80F readings will not be out of the question, and as such, we prefer our inherited max temp forecast, which is a little warmer than the new guidance. With the northern stream driving a cold front into/across the FA tonight, we see the short range models light up active convection along/ahead of its entry. The moderate risk, like the higher svr chance, is displaced to the south and east of the FA. Gusts into the 20s, near 30 mph north, are forecast, with a cooler 50s/30s end of weekend airmass. High pressure will be in control to start the week.
At 06Z, a warm front was lifting northward into northern MS and central AL. This divided dew points in the 40s to lower 50s north of it, to the lower to middle 60s immediately south of it, and event higher in the lower 70s closer to the Gulf Coast. The greatest risk of damaging winds and possibly tornadoes will be along the warm front (possibly outflow enhanced) over southern middle TN and far northwest AL this afternoon and early this evening. The NAM appears to be a bit slower with the line arriving Sunday morning after 12Z in northwest AL, possibly with the lagging upper trough axis.
413 AM CDT Sat Mar 27 2021 A warm front is pushing into the area this morning as expected. The warm front should continue to move into west Tennessee this morning, and stall somewhere over the area. It still remains to be seen what will happen obviously but I do have greater confidence in severe storms later in the evening when the cold front moves into the area and provides greater lift, and the atmosphere may have more time to recover. Cooler and drier air will spread through the Midsouth Sunday morning, with rain exiting northeast MS by midmorning Sunday.
High pressure continues as warmer temperatures and clear skies develop today.
/Issued 235 AM CDT Sat Mar 27 2021/ A closed upper low will track over the far southern Rockies and near far West Texas today. Main upper system tracks east across the Panhandles tonight with northwesterly flow aloft as upper ridge builds east and northeast from the southwestern states into the southern Plains states tonight through Sunday night.
Upper level trough was pushing into western IA with widespread light rain in our nw third and into central IA. A cold front extended from northern MN to Central Nebraska. Then a cold front will enter our western counties this afternoon, and then exit our east by early evening. Ahead of the front, temperatures will be mild, in the lower to mid 60s. Tonight: In the wake of the cold front, nw winds with gusts to around 30 mph, and cooler temperatures can be expected. Skies will also clear from west to east after midnight as high pressure ridge in the Plains builds into the area.
712 AM EDT Sat Mar 27 2021 Dry weather is expected today under high pressure. Showers and thunderstorms return tonight and Sunday with the passage of a cold front. A digging Central CONUS trough will support continued swly flow on the western flank of an amplifying ridge aloft. The low will pull a sfc warm front across the region tonight, to the south of the surface boundary, showers will overspread the region after midnight. Showers will continue on Sunday as the upper trough drifts into Ohio, and pushes a cold front through the region. Showers will end Sunday evening as the trough shifts to eastern PA.
Several hundredths of ice accumulation will be possible near the Twin Ports this morning as a result of freezing rain.
IFR conditions will then develop in cold advection post cold front prior to 12Z Sunday. Digging upper level wave/trough working through the northern Plains today, with additional upper level energy lagging behind across the Four Corners region. With increasing boundary layer depths through the day, should have no problem tapping into 40 knots in the 925-850 MB layer advertised by NAM soundings, and expecting 40 MPH gusts throughout the day, especially with any instability sprinkles/isolated light showers generated as some modest cape (under 25 J/kg) is generated with the steep low level lapse rates, and potential Lake Superior/Lake Michigan/Saginaw Bay connection with the cold northwest flow as the upper level trough axis will be overhead Sunday afternoon.
/issued 421 AM CDT Sat Mar 27 2021/ WV imagery shows the upper trough over central AZ, and poised to move through West Texas and Southeast New Mexico late this afternoon and evening. This feature has slowed slightly over the past few runs, and trough arrival will not be coincident w/peak heating/mixing this afternoon. Ahead of the trough, westerly downslope warming will provide another day of above-normal temperatures across the area. This evening, a cold front will move through the area, bringing a few hours of gap winds through Guadalupe Pass.
High pressure is forecast to maintain quiet weather conditions through the TAF period. High pressure is forecast to maintain quiet, dry conditions for the area through tomorrow. Deep layer ridging will prevail through Sunday, though an amplifying northern CONUS trough will start nudging the ridge axis southeastward late in the period. A few stray, light showers will be possible each day along the Gold Coast where easterly flow transports low-level moisture over the cooler near-shore marine zone (especially closer to Palm Beach county), or along the thermal trough axis advecting off the Bahamas.
This layer of clouds will gradually burn off after sunrise into the early afternoon as high pressure builds into the region.
658 AM CDT Sat Mar 27 2021 Across the Ozarks early this morning, quiet weather conditions prevailed as rain and convection was ongoing along a warm front across northeastern Kansas into southern Iowa. A trailing cold front will become the weather maker for the area late this afternoon into this evening.
The next issuance of TAFs will likely include the passage of a cold front around sunrise Sunday morning. /issued 407 AM CDT Sat Mar 27 2021/ SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday): The most significant event in this portion of the forecast period will be the Sunday passage of a cold front. Additionally, the combination of relative humidity and 20-foot winds in the wake of Sunday's cold front do not appear to support a Red Flag Warning at this time for that day.
High pressure will maintain quiescent conditions across the region this weekend.
Radar this morning showed widely scattered very light showers/sprinkles east of Tucson as upper level trof continues to push east across the area. Otherwise Sunny to mostly sunny conditions today and warmer but with the highs this afternoon remaining below late March normals.
SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday): The most significant event in this portion of the forecast period will be the Sunday passage of a cold front. Additionally, the combination of relative humidity and 20-foot winds in the wake of Sunday's cold front do not appear to support a Red Flag Warning at this time for that day.
649 AM CDT Sat Mar 27 2021 (Today and tonight) A cold front moving into northwest Oklahoma this morning will continue to move southeast through the day.
625 AM CDT Sat Mar 27 2021 Zone of deep lift ahead of a cold front approaching from the northwest is supporting clusters of showers and thunderstorms across eastern Kansas early this morning. Otherwise, post- frontal airmass will support cooler temperatures today mostly in the 60s.
There seems to be some consensus in bringing the "bulk" of shower activity southeast just along or to the west of the James River, so focused the higher POPs in this area. Warmer air will spread into the area on Sunday, with a warm front making it into western/central SD during the afternoon hours. Depending on how far east the warm front pushes, we could see highs in the low to mid 70s over the western CWA. When the period opens, upper level ridging is working through the northern plains, with plenty of warm air accompanying it, too.
Morning sounding from both TBW and XMR continue to show the influence of the upper-level ridge nearly over head with a strong subsidence inversion at around 800 mb. Very dry air above this inversion and fairly dry air toward the lower levels will not only keep rain chances nil but also limit cloud cover, making for another hot day. Favorable boating conditions today as high pressure maintains south to southeast winds of 10-15 knots over the local waters through this evening.
Highs will be in the lower to mid 50s over nern CO.
Another low pressure system advancing eastward out of the central plains will bring showers and storms to the area this evening followed by dry and noticeably cooler weather Sunday. Modest return flow develops ahead of this sys and in time sufficient low level moisture to init storms along the cold front toward sunset west. Nevertheless progressive nature of parent trough will drive decaying showers quickly east overnight followed by a wind chilly Sunday within shallow but intense post frontal cold advection bubble. Otherwise bifurcating srn stream energy may phase into late week upper trough development across New England with a turn toward much cooler and dry conditions here thereafter. A progressive upper trough will then bring a cold front into KSBN between 23z-03z, and into KFWA 03-06z with showers and chances for vis/cig restrictions.
208 AM PDT Sat Mar 27 2021 Developing offshore flow will bring fair, dry and much warmer weather across all of Southern California.
Quiet and dry weather will persist as high pressure will dominate the weather across northern and central Nevada this weekend.
1011 AM EDT Sat Mar 27 2021 Mean layer ridging is centered over the Florida Keys, with 500 mb heights measured at 594 dm this morning from the KKEY RAOB. There were no height changes at the significant levels, so the ridge is stable in strength and position. Temperatures are in lower to mid 80s with dewpoints in the lower 70s. From synopsis, an expansive high pressure system near Bermuda will maintain moderate to occasionally fresh east to southeast breezes through tonight.
409 AM MDT Sat Mar 27 2021 An upper level trof will be exiting the area to the east this morning, with an upper ridge then building over the area through tonight. Overnight low temps should mostly be in the 20s over the plains and in the teens to lower 20s in the high valleys and Teller County.
The approaching cold front has moved eastward and is currently located from Sedalia to Joplin. By mid to late evening, most of the stronger storms will shift east of the forecast area as cooler air spreads over the region behind the passing cold front. High pressure spreads across the region on Sunday with highs mainly in the 60s.
Additional precipitation is expected overnight in association with an upper-level trough and surface cold front. While the periods of precipitation continue, the cold frontal passage will cause temperatures to fall below freezing across north-central, central, and far northeast Wisconsin. These colder temperatures trailing the cold front will allow the rain to transition to snow sometime around midnight. Northwest winds will increase behind the cold front early Sunday morning with gusts of 20 to 25 mph. Low temperatures will range from the middle 20s in north-central Wisconsin to the lower 30s in east-central Wisconsin. High temperatures will mainly be in the 40s with cooler readings in the upper 30s in far north-central Wisconsin and along the lakeshore.
1146 AM MDT Sat Mar 27 2021 The trough axis was still just upstream of the CWA on the 00Z H500 hand analysis chart. As warm air advection moves in behind the trough. That trend will change by Sunday however as heights will continue to rise with flat ridging moving into the Desert Southwest and Central Rockies.
Big story this update is the very strong cold front that is expected to plow through the region Sunday evening and Sunday night.
The focus in the short term today is the potential for severe thunderstorms later this afternoon and evening in association with a cold front moving through the region.
A dry positively-tilted trough was passing through SW KS at midday, with nothing more than a few passing clouds. North winds were elevated at midday, averaging 20-30 mph behind this morning's cold front. Temperatures sunrise Sunday will be well down into the 20s NW zones, near freezing at Dodge City, and mid 30s in Barber county. A low level jet is forecast to develop Sunday night, as flow aloft becomes zonal, in response to a strong trough entering the northern Rockies.
Northwest winds will turn westerly and weaken on Sunday as surface ridging passes across Minnesota. Abundant sunshine will bring warmer temps, but weak warm air advection will still keep many areas in the 40s, especially north of I-94. and a strong area of low pressure heads east across southern Saskatchewan.
1238 PM CDT Sat Mar 27 2021 Zone of deep lift ahead of a cold front approaching from the northwest is supporting clusters of showers and thunderstorms across eastern Kansas early this morning. Otherwise, post- frontal airmass will support cooler temperatures today mostly in the 60s.
A cold front will approach from the nw on Sunday bringing a chance of showers and storms to se Ga during the late afternoon and evening hours.
Morning storms, which were rooted in an elevated layer above a rapidly advancing surface warm front, have contributed uncertainty regarding initial location and timing of new surface-based storm development this afternoon. /issued 413 AM CDT Sat Mar 27 2021/ A warm front is pushing into the area this morning as expected. The warm front should continue to move into west Tennessee this morning, and stall somewhere over the area. It still remains to be seen what will happen obviously but I do have greater confidence in severe storms later in the evening when the cold front moves into the area and provides greater lift, and the atmosphere may have more time to recover. Cooler and drier air will spread through the Midsouth Sunday morning, with rain exiting northeast MS by midmorning Sunday.
1102 AM MDT Sat Mar 27 2021 Departing upper trough and cyclonic flow will continue to support slightly unsettled conds today, with one more round of showers.
253 PM CDT Sat Mar 27 2021 Cold front has moved through the remainder of the area though dewpoints still in the 40s and decent mixing allowing for modest and very shallow SBCAPE to develop in northeastern Kansas.
1129 AM MDT Sat Mar 27 2021 An upper level trof will be exiting the area to the east this morning, with an upper ridge then building over the area through tonight. Overnight low temps should mostly be in the 20s over the plains and in the teens to lower 20s in the high valleys and Teller County.
The upper trough will exit to the east this evening as upper ridging builds in. At the sfc, winds will diminish quickly after sunset with high pressure briefly transitioning over the area. Winds will be breezy by afternoon ahead of an approaching cold front. The good mixing will help send temps up into the lower 70s along and west of the Missouri along with the waa under the ridge. At the upper levels, southwest flow sits overhead as the broad ridge shifts eastward and upper troughing digs into the rockies.
The fog is expected to dissipate later this morning once rain begins from an approaching low pressure system. A low pressure system will slowly lift northeast towards southern Wisconsin this afternoon, then continue east-northeast towards Lake Huron tonight. Precipitation will continue for much of the evening, then end from west to east later tonight as a cold front sweeps through the western Great Lakes region. Some snow may also mix in across portions of central and northeast Wisconsin later this evening into the overnight hours as the colder air filters in behind the cold front. High pressure will build in across the west on Sunday, which should keep the area dry. Lows tonight are expected to range from the middle to upper 20s across north- central Wisconsin, with lows in the lower 30s across east-central and northeast Wisconsin.
Sunday, upper ridge over the northwest CONUS will shift into the northern Plains with significant warm air advection and increasing downslope flow. Thermal ridge quickly pops up with 3-5mb/3hr pressure falls depicted over central ND/SD. Sunday night, upper ridge shifts east in response to fast moving upper trough zipping across southwest Canada into the northern Rockies. Southwest low level jet develops over northeast WY possibly bringing high winds to the favored areas of southern Campbell County and over the higher terrain of the Black Hills into the north through east foothills.
248 PM MDT Sat Mar 27 2021 After the dense freezing fog from this morning lifted and burned off, temperatures warmed back up into the mid 40s to lower 50s. Sunday, a ridge of high pressure from the west and southwest will bring some suddenly warm temperatures and dry humidity to the area. The pressure gradient is tightly packed and some pretty gusty winds are expect to accompany that ridge.
Cooler drier weather is forecasted for Sunday night with lows mainly in the 40s.
233 PM CDT Sat Mar 27 2021 An upper trough moving into NM this morning will pass over Far West TX by late afternoon and across the area tonight. As the parent trough over the Great Lakes pushes east Sunday the southern end of it will shear out as high pressure builds in from the west.
Low temperatures will be right around average for this time of year, with values in the low to mid 20s over the plains, the teens to low 20s over the mountain valleys, and the single digits over the mountains. A lee cyclone is expected to form over the adjacent plains tomorrow afternoon, which will bring some 15 to 20 mph wind gusts over the southeastern plains.
445 PM EDT Sat Mar 27 2021 Showers and thunderstorms return tonight and Sunday with the passage of a cold front. Dry weather then rules during the early part of the new work week under high pressure. Thereafter, a trough digging into the upper Mississippi Valley will increase the advection of warmth and moisture into the region, resulting in a return of cloud cover. A warm front associated with deepening Great Lakes low pressure will push northward across the region tonight. The focus will be on Tucker County, WV as noted in the SPC slight risk, but the window for severe potential should be confined mainly to the morning hours ahead of a quickly advancing cold front. The sfc cold front should complete its passage by Sunday afternoon, though scattered showers should continue under upper troughing.
Warm front currently located across our southern counties very slowly lifting northward, and fairly widespread showers/storms continue along/near it.
234 PM MDT Sat Mar 27 2021 Behind yesterday's trough passage, that lingered a little long this morning, partly cloudy skies and a west to northwest flow have set in with winds gusting into the 20s and low 30s across southeast Wyoming and the west Nebraska Panhandle. The north side of a ridge will continue to build into the region under this northwesterly flow, however, flow will be flattened by a trough off the Pacific coastline. By Sunday night, the aforementioned upper trough will drop south into northwest Wyoming increasing the surface gradients across areas west of the Laramie Range. So, what started as a mountain wave will then transition to a bora wind event, especially as the very strong front associated with the trough approaches the outer reaches of Carbon County.
A 500mb high pressure center sits over the area, suppressing any convection. At the surface, there is an area of high pressure to the east, which is bringing a southeasterly wind to the area this weekend.
147 PM PDT Sat Mar 27 2021 Weak offshore flow and increased ridging will lead to warmer temperatures and sunny skies across the region this weekend, with the heat peaking Sunday.