Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
234 AM CDT Sun Mar 15 2015 After a few soggy days, Spring looks to make an appearance today and tomorrow across the region, before cooler weather and more rain arrive for the middle of the week. Readings should top out this afternoon around 70s, with abundant sunshine thanks to high pressure moving south through the area. After a mild night tonight, an even warmer and breezier day is expected for Monday, with highs solidly into the mid 70s. While dewpoints should be a bit higher Monday, warmer temperatures and stronger winds should result in an additional day of elevated fire weather conditions in a few areas, again mostly across central and west-central Missouri.
TONIGHT, SKIES WILL BE CLEAR WITH LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS AS A LEE TROUGH STAYS NEARLY STATIONARY. IN FACT, IF MODELS CONTINUE THE WARMER TREND, DOWN RIGHT HOT (RELATIVE TO CLIMO FOR 16 MARCH).
Morning lows will be reflected by that calm and dry airmass, as temperatures in isolated locations have dropped below freezing. These freezing temperatures are not widespread, as most areas are in the middle 30s to lower 40s. Slightly better moisture and winds not quite as strong as Sunday will be present concurrent to the warmer temperatures.
138 AM EDT SUN MAR 15 2015 HIGH PRESSURE MOVING FROM THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES TO THE GULF COAST WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY. SHARP MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL WASH OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH TOMORROW IN THE WAKE OF EXITING TROUGH. CORE OF THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH WILL SKIRT TO OUR NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT BUT SURFACE ANTICYCLONE JUST TO OUR W/SW WILL LEAD TO VERY LIGHT NW GRADIENT WINDS. CONTINUED TO LEAN ON THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE WITH LOWS TOUCHING THE UPPER 20S. VERY WARM TEMPS ALOFT EXPECTED OVER THE AREA MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT WITH MEAGER MOISTURE PROFILE AND LIFT. VFR CONDS XPCD THROUGH THE PD AS RIDGING SFC AND ALOFT BLDS ACRS THE AREA.
THIS SYSTEM'S WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. THE WARM FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN WASHINGTON THIS AFTERNOON. THE SYSTEM'S COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL DRY OUT, EXCEPT FOR A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN, MONDAY.
ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE REMNANTS OF A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL PART OF THE CWA TOWARD SUNRISE MONDAY. THE PREVIOUSLY-MENTIONED NORTHWARD DRIFT WILL RESULT IN WARMER-THAN-EXPECTED TEMPS.
625 AM EDT SUN MAR 15 2015 LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST AND HIGH PRESSURE IN THE OHIO VALLEY WILL MAKE A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND LEAD TO VERY GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS TODAY. FAST NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING A COLD FRONT DOWN FROM CENTRAL CANADA.
A FLATTENING UPPER RIDGE WAS SITTING OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THIS MORNING. WARMER HIGHS WILL LEAD TO SOME HUMIDITIES FALLING INTO THE UPPER TEENS. THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. RAISED HIGHS ON MONDAY AS GUIDANCE WAS MUCH WARMER.
SHORT TERM HI-RES MODELS DO CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE SOME SHOWER POTENTIAL ACROSS FAR NORTH GEORGIA AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE STATE EARLY THIS EVENING. DRY AIR FILTERS INTO THE STATE BEHIND THE FRONT WITH HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING THE AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
428 AM EDT SUN MAR 15 2015 LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MAINE TRACKS NE AND INTENSIFIES AS IT MOVES INTO THE MARITIMES. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS BRIEFLY ON MONDAY.
415 AM CDT SUN MAR 15 2015 UPPER LEVEL PATTERN STILL INDICATES GENERAL TROUGHING IN THE EAST AND RIDGING IN THE WESTERN CONUS.
UPPER RIDGING FROM THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS EXTENDING WEST ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS WILL SLOWLY RETROGRADE WEST INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH MONDAY AS AN AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH MOVES OFFSHORE THE EASTERN SEABOARD INTO THE ATLANTIC. AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD A BACK-DOOR TYPE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION TODAY. WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER READINGS ALONG THE COAST DUE TO THE SEA BREEZE. SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. WITH DAYTIME HIGHS ON MONDAY CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER 80S ALONG THE COAST.
THE GFS HAS COME MORE IN LINE WITH THE SLOWER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THAT THE ECMWF HAS SHOWN FOR TONIGHT. DEEP SUBSIDENCE WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION BY MONDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES.
A POWERFUL MID-LATITUDE CYCLONE IS SLIDING EAST THROUGH THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WHILE A CUTOFF LOW IS RETROGRADING NEAR THE BAJA PENINSULA.
VERY WARM HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK. SOMEWHAT COOLER AND MOISTER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP MID WEEK AS A WEAK TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE REGION.
MODEL TREND THE PAST FEW DAYS, HAS BEEN TO SPEED UP COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA TO CLOSE THE WEEKEND.
SURFACE TROF WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS MORNING WITH A WIND SHIFT FROM SOUTH TO WEST. WE WILL SEE WEAK RIDGING OVERHEAD BY AFTERNOON. A WEAK SURFACE TROF MOVES THOUGH THE CWA TONIGHT HELPING KEEP US MIXED AS WINDS SHIFT AROUND TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST. WITH GUSTS INTO THE LOW 30S.
520 AM EDT SUN MAR 15 2015 LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MAINE TRACKS NE AND INTENSIFIES AS IT MOVES INTO THE MARITIMES. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS BRIEFLY ON MONDAY.
TEMPS WILL BE REBOUNDING NICELY TO THE LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS NORTH GA TODAY AND WARMER SOUTHWARD.
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SLOWLY SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT.
304 AM EDT SUN MAR 15 2015 LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS EVENING WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT.
UPPER HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY BUILDING IN STRONGLY OVER THE AREA. SOME HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER DISTURBANCE ARE FILTERING THROUGH THE RIDGE AT THIS TIME. A VERY WARM DAY FOR THE STATE AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION AND H7 TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO WARM TO 7-10 DEG C. 60S FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO DROP DOWN THE E PLAINS DURING THE EVENING.
DRY AIR WILL BE ADVECTING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NW TODAY BEHIND A COLD FRONT AND MIDLEVEL TROUGH AXIS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE AREA WILL PROVIDE CALM CONDITIONS TONIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES CONTINUING.
AND MONDAY HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATED THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLIDE EAST OF THE AREA. WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVING INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO LOW PRESSURE THAT IS EXPECTED TO PASS ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
354 AM CDT SUN MAR 15 2015 06Z SFC ANALYSIS HAS HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. CWA WILL RESIDE IN PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR ON MONDAY WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS AND JUXTAPOSITION OF LOW TO MID LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE FAVORABLE FOR MAX HEATING WITH WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. THESE TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE A FEW TO SEVERAL DEGS SHORT OF RECORD HIGHS WHICH ARE NEAR 80 OR IN THE LOWER 80S. THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE CWA DRY MONDAY EVE/NIGHT WITH GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS USHERING IN COOLER AIRMASS.
240 AM PDT SUN MAR 15 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO BRING DRY CONDITIONS AND WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THROUGH TODAY. A SLIGHT COOLING TREND WILL BEGIN MONDAY AS A TROUGH MOVES INTO THE REGION AND BRINGS INCREASED CLOUDS.
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO NEW ENGLAND THROUGH TODAY WITH BACKSIDE MOISTURE IN NORTHWEST FLOW INTO MIDDAY. LOW CHC POPS FOR A RAIN OR SNOW SHOWER MAINLY ACROSS I-80 INTO THE RIDGES WILL END BY AFTERNOON AS DRY AIR WRAPS INTO REGION.
134 AM EDT SUN MAR 15 2015 LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS EVENING WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT.
TONIGHT, SKIES WILL BE CLEAR WITH LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS AS A LEE TROUGH STAYS NEARLY STATIONARY. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TRANSITIONING EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY AS A CLOSED OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA BEGINS TO LIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST. MEANWHILE, A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DIVE OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE UPPER NORTHEAST HELPING SEND A COLD FRONT SURGING SOUTHWARD INTO WESTERN KANSAS SOMETIME MONDAY NIGHT.
Upper level heights will also rise with an upper level ridge extending from the Gulf Coast region northwest into the Plains by 00Z Monday.
THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT SOUTH AS A STRONG TROUGH MOVES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST INTO THE ATLANTIC. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA SUNDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA EARLY MONDAY.
THE FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTHWARD ACROSS NE FL THROUGH SUNRISE WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S ACROSS SE GA TO THE LOW/MID 60S ACROSS NE FL UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. HIGH TEMPS WILL RISE INTO THE LOW/MID 80S TODAY WHILE ENE FLOW KEEPS THE COAST COOLER IN THE MID 70S. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE FROM THE SEA BREEZES AND MOISTURE WILL CONVERGE THIS AFTERNOON GENERALLY WEST OF THE HIGHWAY 301 CORRIDOR IN NE FL BUT INCREASING SUBSIDENCE FROM THE WEST WILL TEMPER CONVECTIVE GROWTH. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL MON UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AS HIGH TEMPS RISE INTO THE LOW/MID 80S INLAND TO MID 70S COAST.
THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT ANOMALOUSLY WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE WRN CONUS. WATER VAPOR IMAGES SHOWED CONSIDERABLE MID/UPPER MOISTURE WITH THIS RIDGE. AHEAD OF A SURFACE LEE TROUGH. WINDS WILL SLACKEN ON SUNDAY AFTER THE LEE TROUGH PASSES THE CWA. A COUPLE OF WEAK WAVES WILL TOP THE RIDGE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
332 AM CDT SUN MAR 15 2015 VERY WARM AND DRY SWLY FLOW OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF POLAR COLD FRONT FROM CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN INTO SWRN ALBERTA. COLD FRONT WILL ENTER NORTHERN IOWA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND PASS SOUTH OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE STATE TUE AND WED.
330 AM PDT SUN MAR 15 2015 WITH HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT. SLIGHT COOLING IS EXPECTED BY MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND A RETURN OF THE MARINE LAYER CAN BE EXPECTED BY MID WEEK AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. 586 DM UPPER RIDGE AND WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW FROM THE EAST (NEUTRAL IN THE N/S DIRECTION) WILL COMBINE TO MAKE FOR ANOTHER RECORD BREAKING DAY. THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN MONDAY BUT HGTS REMAIN QUITE HIGH OFFSHORE FLOW PERSISTS FROM THE EAST AND REDEVELOPS FROM THE NORTH SO ONE LAST DAY OF VERY WARM TEMPS PERHAPS A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN TODAY BUT THAT REALLY DEPENDS ON HOW MUCH HIGH CLOUDS THERE ARE.
ONE POSSIBILITY FOR THE NOTABLE RUN-TO- RUN INCONSISTENCIES IS THE MODELS ARE HAVING DIFFICULTIES BECAUSE OF THE THREE UPSTREAM TROPICAL CYCLONES IN THE WEST PACIFIC. BECAUSE OF THE EXPECTED DEEPENING AND NORTHEASTWARD MOVEMENT OF TODAY'S LOW PRESSURE. BUT THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN AT THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON AS A POTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS INLAND AND SQUEEZES OUT THE LAST OF THE SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE THAT'S BEEN IN THE VICINITY FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS OR SO. WINDS: WE'VE CONTINUED THE HIGH WIND WARNINGS AND WIND ADVISORIES AT NPWMFR. MODELS ARE SPEEDING UP THE PROGRESSION OF THE LOW CENTER.
144 AM EDT SUN MAR 15 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING IN ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE WEST TONIGHT WHILE A TROUGH LINGERS ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THAT HIGH WILL SHIFT SOUTH MONDAY WHILE A WARM FRONT CROSSES THE LAKES. A COLD FRONT WILL SINK SOUTHWARD MONDAY NIGHT AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA FOR MID WEEK. CLOUDS STARTING TO SPREAD ESE BACK OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE CWA IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LOW AND WRAP AROUND MOISTURE DROPPING SE ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKES TONIGHT. WITH MOST PLACES JUST TOUCHING FREEZING BY DAYBREAK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY ENDING ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE SNOWBELT. COOLER ACROSS THE EAST. MONDAY WILL BE QUITE MILD AS THE ENTIRE DAY IS IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT FOR MONDAY NIGHT.
1004 PM PDT SAT MAR 14 2015 More wet weather is in store for Sunday as another low pressure system brings rain to the Pacific Northwest.
305 AM EDT SUN MAR 15 2015 LOW PRESSURE GOING OFF THE NE COAST WILL DEEPEN RAPIDLY AND MOVE TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. AFTER HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS A BRIEF WARMUP MONDAY.
ANOTHER CLOUDY DAY EXPECTED ACROSS THE GULF COAST TODAY AS A JET WRAPPING AROUND AN UPPER LOW NEAR THE BAJA OF CALIFORNIA SENDS MID LEVEL MOISTURE TOWARDS THE AREA.
356 AM EDT SUN MAR 15 2015 A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL.
AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A NE-SW ORIENTED UPPER RIDGE FROM CENTRAL CANADA THROUGH THE DAKOTAS. THE RIDGE WAS FLANKED BY TROUGHS OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA AND GREAT LAKES. PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CWA. MONDAY WILL BE ANOTHER MILD DAY ALBEIT 5-10 DEGREES COOLER ACROSS THE PLAINS. STILL EXPECTING A COOLER START TO THE EXTENDED ON THE HEELS OF A WEAK FROPA ON MONDAY NIGHT AND TUE. ACTUALLY STAYING ABOVE FREEZING.
Lingering rainfall across far southern Missouri along the Arkansas border will come to an end by late afternoon as a positive tilt upper level trough axis migrates slowly to the southeast. Cloud cover will gradually erode through the night in the wake of the exiting trough. Good 500 MB height rises and warming 850 MB temperatures along with nearly full sunshine will result in much warmer temperatures. The warmer weather will persist into Monday as the upper ridge remains overhead and southerly winds increase ahead of an approaching cold front. Expect highs Monday to climb into the lower to middle 70s.
322 AM CDT Sun Mar 15 2015 High pressure ridge currently extends just south of the forecast area bribing return flow to eastern KS. Also, the dry air mass in the low to mid levels that remains just above the boundary layer will mix down to the surface this afternoon. Mixing heights are forecast to be around 900 mb and with the warmer temperatures in place highs should reach to the mid to upper 70s. Eastern KS will reside in between the high pressure to the south and the northern wave causing an increase in the pressure gradient. Therefore low temperatures remain in the 40s, and the valley locations with the lowest temperatures. Not far behind is the next strong cold front poised to move through in the overnight hours and bring strong north to northeast winds as it does so.
With only thin high clouds limiting insolation, expect temperatures to rise into the lower to mid 80s this afternoon.
410 AM EDT SUN MAR 15 2015 LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST AND HIGH PRESSURE IN THE OHIO VALLEY WILL MAKE A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND LEAD TO VERY GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS TODAY. FAST NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING A COLD FRONT DOWN FROM CENTRAL CANADA.
150 AM CDT SUN MAR 15 2015 PATCHY FOG HAS DEVELOPED AMONGST THE LOW CLOUDINESS DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS DUE TO VERY MOIST AIR IN PLACE. THE LOWEST CLOUD DECKS ARE CLEARING ACROSS TN AND WILL DO SO IN NRN AL OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LOW MOVING THRU THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WITH A TRAILING TROF THRU THE OH VALLEY INTO THE SRN PLAINS WHICH IS SHEARING OUT RAPIDLY.
510 AM CDT SUN MAR 15 2015 ABUNDANT SUNSHINE YESTERDAY ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO REACH 74 AT CLL AND 77 AT IAH AND WITH MORE CLOUD COVER AND WEAK CAA TODAY TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE 4 TO 7 DEGREES COOLER. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER EAST TEXAS TODAY WILL SLIDE THROUGH INTO LA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND THIS WILL LEAD TO WINDS TURNING AROUND TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST AND A WARMING TREND AS HEIGHTS BUILD OVER THE AREA. UPPER RIDGING TAKES HOLD AND SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES BACK IN THE MID 70S INLAND ON MONDAY AND RAINFREE THANKS TO A BUILDING CAP.
A CHANGING WEATHER PATTERN IS IN THE WORKS WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE BRINGING UNSETTLED.
S TX IS CURRENTLY IN BETWEEN A VARIETY OF WEATHER SYSTEMS WITH A STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW SE OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MX. A LARGE AREA OF RAIN EARLY THIS MORNING OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE ADJACENT GULF WATERS CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF DIMINISHING IN AREAL COVERAGE AS A MINOR MID LEVEL SPEED MAX SHIFTS NORTH AND AS SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE PUSHES SOUTH. BOUNDARY OVER THE WEST GULF TRIES TO INCH CLOSER TO THE AREA ON MONDAY BUT SHOULD HAVE TROUBLE DEVELOPING MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIP AS H85 HIGH PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE NORTHERN GULF HELPS WRAP ADDITIONAL DRIER LLVL AIR INTO THE REGION AND MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER CENTRAL GULF NUDGES WESTWARD. WENT ON THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD GIVEN EXPECTED DRIER CONDITIONS.
435 AM CDT SUN MAR 15 2015 WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO PAINT A STRONG SW STREAM OF TROPICAL PACIFIC MOISTURE WITH A CUT OFF UPPER LOW SPINNING JUST SOUTH OF BAJA. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC IS BEGINNING TO EXPAND INTO THE REGION FROM THE NW. TEMPERATURES WILL RESPOND NICELY TO THE UPPER RIDGE INFLUENCE TAKING SHAPE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S THIS AFTERNOON.
338 AM EDT SUN MAR 15 2015 HIGH PRESSURE MOVING FROM THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES TO THE GULF COAST WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY. NO SENSIBLE WX CONCERNS THIS PD AS RIDGING ALOFT BUILDS ACROSS THE MIDWEST/WRN GREAT LAKES. XPCD WAA INADV OF PROGRESSIVE SW ADVG EWD THROUGH CNTRL CANADA AND DEGREE OF THERMAL RIDGING THAT BUILDS THIS AFTN. AN UNSEASONABLY MILD MONDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO COOLER/SEASONAL WX 925 MB TEMPS PUSHING 13-15C IN A WELL MIXED PRE-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT SHOULD AFFORD MID 60S-LOW 70S HIGHS MONDAY.
Early morning surface analysis shows a broad area of high pressure centered across the central Plains. Monday is shaping up to be a seasonably warm and sunny day as we continue to have southwest flow at the surface under a weak upper level ridge. Added a few degrees to the highs as bias-corrected guidance suggests mid 70s for many locations.
S/SW WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION AS THE NERN WAVE EXITS INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC AND A NARROW/STOUT RIDGE AXIS WILL BUILDS FROM THE GULF INTO OKLAHOMA. THE COMBINATION OF THIS RIDGE AXIS AND AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT OFF THE NRN PLAINS WILL RESULT IN A PRE-FRONTAL TORCH SETUP ACROSS W/NW OK.
243 AM CDT Sun Mar 15 2015 Ridge of high pressure currently extending from Lake Superior to the Texas panhandle will settle southward into the Ohio River Valley today. Skies will initially be sunny during the morning: however, as a trough of low pressure tracks across the Upper Midwest into the Great Lakes, high clouds will stream southward into the area later in the day. Clouds may become thick enough to mitigate the warming trend somewhat, but am still expecting temps to be 3-6 degrees warmer than yesterday, with readings topping out in the middle to upper 60s.
400 AM PDT SUN MAR 15 2015 HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH LOCALLY GUSTY NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS NEAR THE COASTAL FOOTHILLS.
TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WATER VAPOR CONTINUES TO SHOW LARGE UPPER RIDGE COVERING THE WRN CONUS. TROF IS ADVANCING THROUGH THE WRN DAKOTAS. THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST EVEN WARMER TEMPS THAN YESTERDAY AND WILL RESULT IN SOME RECORD HIGHS ACRS THE CWFA. A BIT MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE SFC TROF. THIS HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY LESS WIND SHOULD KEEP CONDITIONS JUST OUTSIDE OF RED FLAG CRITERIA (SEE FIRE WX DISCUSSION BELOW). CDFNT WILL WORK THROUGH THE CWFA DURING THE MRNG AND PRODUCE GUSTY NLY WINDS AND COOLER TEMPS ACRS THE CWFA.
BEFORE A POTENT COLD FRONT BRINGS COOLER TEMPS FOR MONDAY. ATTENTION WILL THEN TURN TO SUNDAY WHEN EVEN WARMER AIR ALOFT SPREADS OVER THE REGION. POTENT COLD FRONT STILL ON TRACK TO SURGE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CWA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. WHATS CERTAIN IS THAT MUCH COOLER AIR WILL BE FILTERING INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY.
AGAIN, THE HIGHEST POPS AND QPF WILL BE NEAR THE CA/OR BORDER, DECREASING GRADUALLY AS ONE HEADS SOUTHWARD TO NORTHERN MENDOCINO COUNTY, THEN A LARGE DECREASE TO SOUTHERN MENDOCINO COUNTY (WHERE ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED). MODELS INDICATE A SHORT WAVE RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE WEST COAST STARTING MONDAY.
429 AM EDT SUN MAR 15 2015 HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE AREA TODAY.
A WARM FRONT EXTENDED FROM A LOW OVER NORTH CENTRAL CANADA SOUTHWARD INTO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS - INCLUDING THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH WERE OCCURRING OVER WESTERN AND MOST OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BEHIND THE WARM FRONT. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE TODAY. THUS ANY MIXING OF THE LOWER/SURFACE LAYERS WITH H850 WOULD NOT TAP INTO VERY STRONG WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. 71 IN 2012 TONIGHT A SECONDARY COLD FRONT MOVES INTO NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA AND MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE STATE. LACK OF SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE SOURCE SHOULD KEEP QPF/SNOW AMOUNTS ON THE LOW END. WILL KEEP POPS ON THE LOW END. WINDS EVENTUALLY BECOME NORTHWEST AROUND 18Z SUNDAY AT KISN/KDIK AND WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.
DRY AND MILD WEATHER WILL CONTINUE AS THE LARGE UPPER RIDGE AND SUBSIDENCE CONTINUES OVER THE PLAINS.
WITH A STRONG UPPER LOW OVER HUDSON BAY CONTINUING TO SWEEP AIR FROM THE NORTHWEST TERRITORIES DOWN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
ARCTIC COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS SERN MO ATTM. THE HIGHEST SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL LIKELY BE NORTH OF THE TN RIVER. LEADING EDGE OF AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT EXTENDED ACROSS CENTRAL MO ATTM.
PREVIOUS FORECAST IS ON TRACK AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO TEXAS. WINDS DIMINISH BY WEDENSDAY AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE TEXAS COAST. /ISSUED 157 PM CST TUE FEB 17 2015/ SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH ACROSS TX/LA AND NW GULF THIS AFTERNOON.
936 PM EST TUE FEB 17 2015 WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA THOUGH WEDNESDAY. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 21 29 9 21 / 30 40 10 0 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 19 26 5 16 / 30 60 20 10 OAK RIDGE, TN 18 25 5 17 / 40 60 20 10 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 14 23 2 11 / 20 70 60 10 NC.
THEN GRADUALLY BECOME SOUTHERLY ON WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE INTO SOUTH TEXAS TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. MODELS HAVE TRENDED WARMER WITH LOWS DESPITE KEEPING THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S. BUT HAVE TRENDED TO THE LOWER SIDE OF GUIDANCE DUE TO EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS AS WELL AS A LIGHT WIND FLOW SHIFTING OUT OF THE WEST THAT WILL LIKELY DEVELOP /AS IT TENDS TO DO POST STRONG COLD FRONTS/ WHICH WOULD FURTHER COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS AT THE SURFACE. KEPT TEMPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN LOCATIONS DIPPING INTO THE LOW 30S JUST ABOVE FREEZING. HOWEVER ISOLATED LOW LYING LOCATIONS MAY BRIEFLY REACH FREEZING. AN ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS HEADING INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES FURTHER EAST.
1042 PM EST TUE FEB 17 2015 A PERSISTENT REGION OF LARGE-SCALE LOW-LEVEL WARM THERMAL ADVECTION WHICH COMMENCED ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS DURING THE AFTERNOON HAS LED TO GRADUAL DESTABILIZATION OF THE LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERE AND EROSION OF A ROBUST CAP. THE SURFACE COLD FRONT IS ADVANCING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA PENINSULA.
1000 PM EST TUE FEB 17 2015 A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY OVERNIGHT. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY.
636 PM EST TUE FEB 17 2015 HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE MIDWEST WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT WHILE A FIRST LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
549 PM CST TUE FEB 17 2015 FOR 00Z TAFS /ISSUED 533 PM CST TUE FEB 17 2015/ THE 21Z SURFACE ANALYSIS AND IR/VISIBLE IMAGES INDICATED THAT THERE WERE FINALLY BREAKS IN THE LOW CLOUDS WITH TEMPS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 20S IN SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE. A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT WAS PROGRESSIVELY MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES AND EXTENDED SOUTHWEST FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. THE MODELS ARE INDICATIVE OF DEVELOPING A SURGE OF SNOW SHOWERS ALONG AND SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. AND EXPECT THAT THERE WILL ALSO BE SCATTERED FLURRIES IN THE COLD ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT.
853 PM MST Tue Feb 17 2015 Upper level ridge with axis currently along the West Coast will gradually shift inland tonight while at the surface, high pressure over eastern MT slides off into the Dakotas. An upper level high pressure ridge remains over the West Coast and this is causing northwest flow aloft over Central Montana.