Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Given this, we have raised PoPs into the high chance category over the northern parts of Parmer, Castro and northwestern Swisher Counties for the remainder of tonight. The airmass across the area has been stabilized in the wake of this feature, with the 20 UTC surface analysis showing the theta-e ridge extending northward in eastern NM before bending northeast into the northwest TX and OKLA Panhandles. Thunderstorm development will occur in that area this afternoon and evening, and especially around the Raton Mesa where a weak cold front intersects the elevated terrain. The upper-level ridge is still forecast to temporarily build across west-central TX tomorrow into Friday and should keep the t-storm activity mainly to our north, although there will be a chance both Thursday and Friday nights that an MCS rolling across the panhandles could clip our northern counties.
244 AM CDT Thu Aug 10 2017 The main near term forecast concern is the potential for showers and thunderstorms on Friday as a mid level impulse and weak surface cold front push across the area. The upper level pattern will continue to feature troughiness over the northern and eastern quarter of the nation with an upper high suppressed into the far southern states.
Another broken line of storms should form along the cold front with a Marginal Risk of them becoming severe.
436 AM EDT Thu Aug 10 2017 An upper-level composite analysis early this morning reveals a deep layer mean anticyclone centered over the western North Atlantic, well east of the southeastern United States. A weak trough along its southwestern flank is centered over the Bahamas, and moving northwestward toward the Florida Peninsula. This trough is associated with a deeper moist layer and enhanced coverage of showers and thunderstorms. Heat indices are in the lower 90s.
The upper level trough in place over the eastern CONUS will deamplify and be replaced with ridging aloft. Max temperatures will be in the upper 80s to low 90s and min temperatures will be in the low to mid 70s.
505 AM EDT Thu Aug 10 2017 A cold front will stall across the region today. The front will begin to lift back north in the form of a warm front Friday. A cold front will stall across the region today through tonight.
1234 AM CDT Thu Aug 10 2017 A cold front is currently located just to the northwest of the CWA. Later Thursday afternoon, another cluster of thunderstorms is expected to develop over the High Plains, mainly affecting the southwestern half of the CWA into the evening and overnight.
A cold front will push south across northeast Colorado early this afternoon. Later arrival of the cold front will allow for more heating and a little better instability. High temperatures today are expected to be cooler due to cloud cover and a cooler airmass moving in behind the cold front. Storms will likely initiate off the higher terrain than spread into the adjacent plains.
Low level moisture will remain on the high side for Thu which will lead to some better instability with the airmass remaining uncapped. Not much in the way of surface focus for activity Thu with upslope processes over the high Plains providing the most likely forcing for development.
353 AM EDT Thu Aug 10 2017 High pressure will remain just east of the area through Friday.
Across the CONUS, near zonal flow exists beneath a compact upper trough along the Canadian border. This flow diminishes rapidly with southern extent as weak upper ridging dominates from the Southern High Plains into the Gulf of Mexico. As a tropical upper tropospheric trough. Areas along and north of I-4 will be further removed from the low, and with weaker influences will likely see lesser storm coverage. As storms will generally get a late start again, expect another hot day with highs in the lower to perhaps mid 90s inland, and upper 80s along the coast. As winds will shift onshore earlier in the day, highs will likely run a couple of degrees cooler Friday, with widespread low 90s likely.
Upper level ridge begins to break down Friday night as an upper level trough reaches the northwest coast.
But GOES 16 image of precipitable water shows higher moisture north of Hurricane Franklin moving northward into the coastal waters off the Lower Texas coast.
Monsoon moisture lingers under the upper ridge today. an upper trof moves into the Pac NW and increases the southwest flow over ID. then back to the rest of the mtn areas on Mon as the upper trof passes. Wed and Thu look dry as northwest flow aloft takes over in the wake of the upper trof. An area of low pressure remains stuck just off of the Northern California coast while northwest flow prevails over Montana, with SE Idaho in between.
This is in association with a subtle impulse propagating east along the base of the upper low, with a moderately unstable environment in place with MLCAPE around 1000-1500 j/kg per the 18 UTC RAP. Elsewhere across central and northwest North Dakota, sub-severe scattered showers and thunderstorms associated with the upper level low will continue through the afternoon, diurnally fading with sunset. Cannot rule out a weak funnel cloud today with the upper low over the area.
The above noted boundary should be north of the region as a warm front, bringing deeper moisture across the Tennessee Valley. With some sun expected, high temperatures this afternoon should range from the lower 80s east to mid 80s west. Muggy night lows only in the lower 70s are expected.
There is some suggestion of shower development across the south this aftn as upper levels of the atms transition to a NW flow pattern with the upper low ejecting out into northern WI by 18Z. with the best chances across the south where dew points are still around 60 mid-day (dropping into the low 50s across the north). Have went with continuity and kept aftn POPs limited to SE zones despite some of the higher res solutions bringing activity back further west across the southern valley. Overall a slightly cooler day with highs in the mid 70s and overnight lows in the lower 50s. High pressure will be over the area Friday. Meanwhile high pressure will be over southern Manitoba and NW Ontario keeping the northeast ND and northern Minnesota dry Sat & Sun.
631 AM EDT Thu Aug 10 2017 High pressure will move east of Pennsylvania today, starting a moderating temperature trend with slowly increasing moisture.
/issued 634 PM CDT Wed Aug 9 2017/ 0Z TAFs - Several rounds of scattered showers/storms are possible across portions of the area during this TAF period with the highest chances in northern Oklahoma. An even higher chance of storms returns late tomorrow afternoon or tomorrow evening as a storm complex is expected to develop in southern Kansas or near the Oklahoma border and moving south/southeast through the area with the highest precipitation chances northeast.
439 AM EDT Thu Aug 10 2017 High pressure will remain just east of the area through Friday.
Late Friday and through the weekend is when we begin to see a shift in the pattern as the center of the ridge that has been parked to our west migrates east toward central Texas during the day on Friday. By late Friday a strong trough axis across the northern Plains pushes enough energy south to flatten the ridge for the weekend and allow a dynamically weak cold front to advance far enough south into our area to finally help tap into all the surface moisture we've seen the past week. Blended guidance continues to be reasonable for coverage of storm potential depending on the the location of the cold front.
236 AM EDT Thu Aug 10 2017 Showers this morning are forming along an inverted trough axis with positive Theta-E advection and 850mb/700mb convergence that stretches from south-central Kentucky into southwestern Ohio. The inverted trough axis/Theta-E ridge will gradually move eastward through the morning hours, keeping the highest chances of precipitation in eastern Kentucky east of I-65. By Friday, an area of low pressure with a weak trailing "cold" front will move across the lower Ohio Valley region. Shower and thunderstorm activity ahead of weak cold front will continue into Friday evening.
222 AM EDT Thu Aug 10 2017 Despite weak high pressure across the region today and Friday, modest increases in humidity and daytime temperatures will result in isolated thunderstorms this afternoon, and scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms on Friday. Skies will be partly sunny on balance, and high temperatures will reach the lower 80s in most valley locations today and Friday.
336 AM EDT Thu Aug 10 2017 High pressure will keep the majority of the area dry today with seasonal temperatures. Valley fog is developing across NY/PA this morning as high pressure at the sfc is located over the region and mostly clear skies prevail. Temps are expected to fall into the low 60s/uppr 50s Thurs night. Lows will be mainly in the low to mid 60s.
147 AM EDT Thu Aug 10 2017 High pressure will remain over the area through Thursday.
Models continued to suggest an upswing in thunderstorm activity through the weekend as high pressure aloft remains centered over Texas.
The region is located in a break between a ridge over Texas and another ridge off the Florida East Coast. With more convection expected in the Florida Panhandle and Southeast Alabama, will show high temperatures only in the upper 80s but warmer to the east where highs will be in the lower 90s.
The 60-70kt jet will remain parked aloft with the area of high pressure sitting south of the Four Corners region. The end of the work week will finally see a change in the synoptic pattern as a broad upper level Pacific trough begins to elongate off the coast of California. The intensification of this trough will result in an increase in south-southwest flow over our area and usher the area of high pressure further east. This shift will allow for moisture to trickle in on the backside of the high and into our southern zones with PWAT values increasing to over an inch for Friday.
/00Z_TAFS/ VFR conditions are expected to prevail throughout the TAF period as high pressure builds back over the region with drier air continuing to move into the midlevels. Coverage should retreat southward more significantly on Thursday as the upper ridge axis expands southeast over Central TX. This should correct closer to blended guidances for Thursday as the upper ridge strengthens over TX and ground moisture continues to escape into the atmosphere.
332 AM MDT Thu Aug 10 2017 Current surface analysis shows frontal boundary just south and west of the CWA, with high pressure over northeast MT. Today is looking to be a pleasant day across the area as high pressure slides north and east of the area. Otherwise, skies will be mostly sunny to partly cloudy with winds gradually switching to the east and southeast later today and this evening as the high moves away from the region.
332 AM CDT Thu Aug 10 2017 A west-northwest flow aloft will persist today with multiple upstream short wave troughs noted across the Plains.
305 AM CDT Thu Aug 10 2017 Much warmer and more humid across Middle Tennessee versus yesterday at this time with radar showing a few showers across eastern zones and additional showers over northern Alabama.
326 AM EDT Thu Aug 10 2017 Fair weather will continue today as high pressure moves slowly east away from the area. Scattered showers are possible tonight as a cold front approaches from the west.
In addition, best severe threat will be dependent on enough clearing for advertised instability axis to build ahead of pre frontal trough.
A weak cold front extends across the center of the forecast area from northeast to southwest early this afternoon.
As the easterly wave gets sheared apart by the larger scale trough over the eastern CONUS, its remnant moisture will get left behind over the peninsula. The area will remain in a weakness between troughiness to the north and ridging to the south. Given that steering flow will be quite weak, the highest rain chances (50-60%) are advertised inland, though even our coastal counties stand to see scattered activity as the sea breeze develops and pushes inland.
Ridging begins to take hold of the forecast today, helping us return to a more typical summertime pattern. Rain chances become more limited heading into the weekend as the ridge remains overhead. With the lowering chances for showers/storms, high temperatures will be on the rise for much of the forecast period, generally ranging from the upper 80s right along the coast to the mid/upper 90s across the Brazos Valley.
1043 PM PDT Wed Aug 9 2017 The upper low centered along the northern California coastline has begun to pivot and take on a negative tilt. To the south, drier air wrapping into the low has ended the convective activity with skies rapidly clearing across the region. /Issued 115 PM PDT Wed Aug 9 2017/ Low pressure over northern California will continue shower and thunderstorms development through this evening with some storms capable of producing flash flooding mainly north of I-80. The storm threat will shift farther north on Thursday as this low finally exits northern California. Drier and quieter conditions will prevail heading into the weekend as broad troughing ushers in a dry southwest flow aloft.
A little warmer day expected today as mid level heights build a bit from the west. This wave did produce a few light showers over the high county, but activity has faded with the energy sliding southeast into northern Wyoming. Pieces of energy, along with a cyclonic jet max wrap around the low and eject across southern and eastern Montana. Effective bulk shear was progged around 35kts, which is on the low end for stronger storms. Temperatures look to be a bit warmer on Friday despite easterly surface winds.
Area still under the influence of departing high pressure sprawled across the Ohio Valley. Light southerly flow will help temps reach the low to mid 80s. A psuedo warm front will develop southeastward across southeastern Michigan ahead of the low Thursday night. The weekend will unfold with a broad upper level trough over eastern Canada extending into the Great Lakes as part of a maturing omega block over North America.
309 AM EDT Thu Aug 10 2017 Despite weak high pressure across the region today and Friday, modest increases in humidity and daytime temperatures will result in isolated thunderstorms this afternoon, and scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms on Friday. Skies will be partly sunny on balance, and high temperatures will reach the lower 80s in most valley locations today and Friday.
409 AM EDT Thu Aug 10 2017 High pressure will move offshore today.
/Today through Tonight/ A vigorous short wave trough is passing just north of Iowa today. The trough has a couple strong short fragments moving through the base of the system with the first leading to isolated thunderstorm development over the northeast forecast area early this morning. Deep mixing is expected to occur by this afternoon over southern Iowa leading to high temperatures into the mid 80s and with dew point values in the low to mid 60s, will result in LCL heights of 5 kft or greater. Cooler weather will settle into Iowa overnight as the flow becomes northerly.
/issued 225 PM CDT Wed Aug 9 2017/ Weak upper level ridging continues over Arizona, New Mexico, and southwest Texas with westerly flow aloft. Rain and storms this afternoon and evening should mostly be confined to the higher terrain where the low-level moisture and upslope flow combine. Temperatures today will be warmer than yesterday with southerly winds and more sunshine. The upper ridge becomes more centered over the CWA on Thursday further reducing chances of storms except maybe an isolated storm or two across the higher terrain.
213 AM EDT Thu Aug 10 2017 High pressure will move east of Pennsylvania on Thursday, starting a moderating temperature trend with slowly increasing moisture.
The current area of showers and storms along the Highway 183/281 corridor should continue in that area through the remainder of the afternoon before gradually propagating east out of the area late this afternoon and early evening. The GFS is warmer than the NAM with boundary layer conditions during the day. Thunderstorms should begin developing over the higher terrain of eastern Colorado and northwest Kansas along the front by mid afternoon. Friday should be quiet and cooler as the upper wave moves east of the area and somewhat cooler and stable air moves into western Kansas.
Still observing a bit of a rain shadow off the higher terrain given the southeast flow. With less activity expected, temperatures should make it into the low 80s tomorrow.
An upper level ridge of high pressure will keep the region in a warm air mass today and Friday. A weak upper level low over northern California will support chances for afternoon thunderstorms over the Oregon Cascades today and Friday. Temperatures will cool this weekend as a trough of low pressure from the Gulf of Alaska moves over the region.
Periods of active burning throughout the night on the mid-slopes/ridges followed by additional fire activity during the day combined with weak flow and broad stability throughout the atmosphere will keep abundant smoke in place throughout the region.
415 AM EDT Thu Aug 10 2017 High pressure will keep the majority of the area dry today with seasonal temperatures. Valley fog is developing across NY/PA this morning as high pressure at the sfc is located over the region and mostly clear skies prevail. Temps are expected to fall into the low 60s/uppr 50s Thurs night. On Friday night, general model consensus has a large-scale upper trough slowly approaching from the west, while a surface warm front slowly approaches from the south.
VFR otherwise expected to dominate with upper ridge strengthening across the area. Late Friday and through the weekend is when we begin to see a shift in the pattern as the center of the ridge that has been parked to our west migrates east toward central Texas during the day on Friday. By late Friday a strong trough axis across the northern Plains pushes enough energy south to flatten the ridge for the weekend and allow a dynamically weak cold front to advance far enough south into our area to finally help tap into all the surface moisture we've seen the past week. Blended guidance continues to be reasonable for coverage of storm potential depending on the the location of the cold front.
252 AM EDT Thu Aug 10 2017 High pressure will move east of Pennsylvania on Thursday, starting a moderating temperature trend with slowly increasing moisture.
Probablistic guidance suggest the highest rain chances will be across the Oklahoma Panhandle and northern Texas Panhandle between 06z and 12z Friday.
Still observing a bit of a rain shadow off the higher terrain given the southeast flow. With less activity expected, temperatures should make it into the low 80s tomorrow. The lower ceilings will arrive closer to daybreak, but still some question as to how low they will get and may get close to the MVFR/VFR borderline area, especially near KSME and KLOZ.
636 AM EDT Thu Aug 10 2017 High pressure will remain just east of the area through Friday.
630 AM EDT Thu Aug 10 2017 Fair weather will continue today as high pressure moves slowly east away from the area. Scattered showers are possible tonight as a cold front approaches from the west.
Ahead of the system dewpoints have climbed into the low to mid 60s, but temperatures remain cool due to earlier clouds/pcpn. As the LLJ shifts east, the highest 0-1km shear will transition into MN.
450 AM MDT Thu Aug 10 2017 Current surface analysis shows frontal boundary just south and west of the CWA, with high pressure over northeast MT. Today is looking to be a pleasant day across the area as high pressure slides north and east of the area. Otherwise, skies will be mostly sunny to partly cloudy with winds gradually switching to the east and southeast later today and this evening as the high moves away from the region.
510 AM EDT Thu Aug 10 2017 Upper level trough crosses today, while warmer and more humid air arrives from the south.
117 AM EDT Thu Aug 10 2017 High pressure will remain over the region overnight. A weak trough of low pressure will move across the eastern sections of the forecast area on Thursday. A cold front will move across the entire region on Friday. High pressure will remain in control of the weather tonight. A weak trough of low pressure will move into the southern sections of the forecast area late Thursday morning and then over Northeast Ohio and Northwestern Pennsylvania on Thursday afternoon. A trailing cold front will push through the area Friday, bringing with it a chance for showers and thunderstorms.
302 AM CDT Thu Aug 10 2017 Cold front continues to pivot through the area tonight. This front is being driven southward by a well developed upper trough over the eastern Dakotas.
Thunderstorms that develop over the high plains this afternoon are forecast to grow upscale into a MCS, moving into northeast Oklahoma as early as this evening into overnight hours.
247 AM MDT Thu Aug 10 2017 Moisture will continue over eastern UT and western CO with the best moisture along the northern periphery of the ridge that sits over NM, AZ and TX. On Friday the ridge recedes a bit to the southeast, this allowing moisture flowing around its western side to begin moving across the four corners region. Monsoonal push will continue into the weekend with the upper level ridge axis parked over eastern Utah.
Model guidance depicts this feature progressing southeastward towards the Great Lakes and pushing a cold front into MO/IL tonight and tomorrow. Overnight lows will likely be a few degrees warmer than last night due to the increased cloud cover.
Temperatures today should be a bit warmer than yesterday with some sunshine expected later in the day after stratus burns off but still below normal with highs in the mid 80s. Weak upper troughiness to remain over the region. Surface front appears will shift north some as a warm front. Little overall change, with upper troughiness over the E CONUS.
Overnight into early Thursday, areas of low clouds and fog could develop over parts of the area, particularly through the lower Arkansas River Valley. Upper high across the Southern Rockies and into the Desert Southwest keeps west to northwest flow aloft across the region.
4 inches into the Lower Texas coast. Only isolated convection was over the coastal waters of the Lower Texas coast at this time. But expect this higher moisture will continue move north-northwest toward region today. But moisture profile will be drier for Friday as the upper level ridge begins to build into the area. Will continue the High Risk of Rip Currents for the Middle Texas coast for today.
A warm front draped from Deep East TX to across extreme southwest AR, has aided to maintain a moist atmosphere particularly in the lower levels /dewpoints in the 70s/. Thereafter, a desert southwest UA ridge is anticipated to push eastward to across south central TX by tomorrow, thus sharpening the southwest flow aloft across the region. The warm front will have washed out but ensuing sfc srly flow will maintain a moist environment.
The weather pattern over the area remains the same today with a broad trough aloft. Weak impulses moving through the upper trough will continue to aide the development of scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms through the day, before tapering off this evening. Lows tonight will be in the low and mid 70s inland to upper 70s along the coast.
Look for only minor changes from day-to-day through the forecast period as a trough of low pressure remains off the coast.
644 AM EDT Thu Aug 10 2017 High pressure will keep the majority of the area dry today with seasonal temperatures. Valley fog has developed across NY/PA this morning since high pressure is currently located over the region and mostly clear skies has prevailed through the night. Temps are expected to fall into the low 60s/uppr 50s Thurs night. On Friday night, general model consensus has a large-scale upper trough slowly approaching from the west, while a surface warm front slowly approaches from the south.