Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
631 AM EST THU FEB 5 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY EAST OF THE GULF OF MAINE TODAY THEN TRACK EAST OF NOVA SCOTIA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY. THE COLD FRONT HAS ENTERED THE CROWN OF MAINE AND WILL PROGRESS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE MORNING. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN STREAM IS CURRENTLY MOVING OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION WHILE AMPLIFYING. AS THE UPPER TROUGH DIGS. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE PROPAGATING EASTWARD AND EVENTUALLY PUSH THE FRONT OUT OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. DEEP MOISTURE STREAMING NORTH FROM A SOUTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE IN THE SE US IS JUST STARTING TO PHASE WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH. ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR ADVECTS INTO THE STATE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. THE WINDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE HIGH BUILDS EAST.
435 AM MST THU FEB 5 2015 EARLY MORNING WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOWS AMPLIFIED RIDGE EXTENDING FROM MEXICO TO BRITISH COLUMBIA CANADA WITH NW FLOW ACROSS THE PLAINS.
COLD FRONT MOVING QUICKLY INTO THE NW PART OF THE CWA AS OF 2 AM WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH THE AIRMASS CHANGE. ALL NEAR TERM GUIDANCE SHOWS STRONG SUBSIDENCE DEVELOPING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WHICH WILL LIMIT ANY PRECIP POTENTIAL THIS MORNING (WON'T MENTION ANY DRIZZLE OR FLURRIES) AND WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR A FAIRLY QUICK EROSION OF THE LOW CLOUDS FROM N TO S INTO MIDDAY.
TEMPS NEAR FREEZING WITH SOME SUNSHINE FRIDAY SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME VERY MODEST SNOW MELT WHICH WILL ADD MOISTURE TO THE BOUNDARY LAYER WITH HIGHER DEWPOINTS GRADUALLY ADVECTING UP HERE FRIDAY NIGHT. SET-UP LOOKS DECENT FOR FREEZING FOG DEVELOPMENT FRIDAY NIGHT AS SNOWPACK ALLOWS TEMPS TO FALL TO THE INCREASING DEWPOINTS THOUGH ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AT THIS DISTANCE TO JUST START WITH PATCHY FREEZING FOG FOR NOW.
850 AM EST THU FEB 5 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY EAST OF THE GULF OF MAINE TODAY THEN TRACK EAST OF NOVA SCOTIA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN STREAM IS CURRENTLY MOVING OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION WHILE AMPLIFYING. AS THE UPPER TROUGH DIGS. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE PROPAGATING EASTWARD AND EVENTUALLY PUSH THE FRONT OUT OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. DEEP MOISTURE STREAMING NORTH FROM A SOUTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE IN THE SE US IS JUST STARTING TO PHASE WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH. ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR ADVECTS INTO THE STATE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. THE WINDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE HIGH BUILDS EAST.
A COLD FRONT IS PUSHING SOUTHWARD THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL ALABAMA. A BRIEF WARM UP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 40S IS EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES TO THE SOUTH WILL REACH INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVERHEAD TONIGHT. AIRMASS MODERATES RATHER QUICKLY AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TO THE EAST AND LOW LEVEL WINDS BECOME SOUTHERLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
551 AM EST THU FEB 5 2015 ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TODAY AND MOVE OFF TO THE EAST ON FRIDAY.
949 AM EST THU FEB 5 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY THEN TO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. MEANWHILE LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
335 AM MST THU FEB 5 2015 A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL SIT OVER THE WEST BRINGING DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS TO NORTHERN ARIZONA. A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES AFFECTING NO. WITH DRY AND MUCH WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED.
COLD FRONT JUST NORTH OF REGION WILL QUICKLY PUSH SOUTH THIS MRNG AND BE THROUGH ALL TERMINALS AOB 15Z. AS OF WRITING A COLD FRONT WAS PUSHING THROUGH DEL RIO AND SAN ANTONIO AND PICKING UP PACE AS IT CONTINUES TO TREK SOUTH. HIGH PRESSURE AXIS SLOWLY DRIFTS EASTWARD DURING THE DAY FRIDAY WITH COOL CONDITIONS PERSISTING.
Also helping the warm up will be a west CONUS ridge which will be expanding east as it flattens out over the next few days.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT AN AIR MASS WITH ABOVE FREEZING TEMPS ALOFT AND VERY HIGH PWAT VALUES OF A HALF INCH OR MORE /99TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR/ SPREADS ACROSS THE DAKOTAS TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM: (Through Late This Afternoon) A strong, cold high pressure system currently centered over northwest Missouri will move east into the Ohio Valley today. This morning's cold start with lows ranging from around zero degrees in northern Missouri/west central Illinois to the low teens in southwest Missouri will yield a cold day, even though temperatures will likely rebound around 20 degrees with full sunshine. Used a blend of MOS numbers for highs today which generally ended up being a little cooler than the warm MAV but not as cool as MET. As the high continues drifting east/southeast tonight we should see winds increasing from the south across the CWFA. A little concerned that there could be more cloud cover tonight than we currently have in the forecast as short-range models do show increasing RH in the low levels.
WHEN SNOW AND A BRIEF TRANSITION TO FREEZING RAIN ARE POSSIBLE. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING FOR MOST OF THE AREA SOUTH AND WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER. SOUTHWEST OF THERE SNOWFALL SHOULD QUICKLY DECREASE AND MAY TRANSITION TO LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AS STRONG WARM ADVECTION IN THE H8 LAYER NOSES UP INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. WITH THE WARM AIR ALOFT ADVECTING IN THROUGH THE DAY INTO THE EVENING CHANCES FOR SNOW WILL SWITCH TO OR MIX WITH FREEZING RAIN CHANCES OVER MOST LOCATIONS.
720 AM EST THU FEB 5 2015 LOW PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND WILL MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA TODAY. A COLD FRONT IS SITUATED ACROSS EXTREME NW GA. REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS WIDESPREAD PRECIP ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTHERN GA. THE RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTHERN GA WILL TAPER OFF THIS MORNING AS THE LOW CENTER MOVES EASTWARD INTO FLORIDA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RAPIDLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH TOMORROW.
526 AM CST Thu Feb 5 2015 Arctic high pressure is settling over central Illinois from the northwest this morning with temperatures ranging from -8 in Lacon to 19 at Mount Carmel Airport. As the center of the high approaches and crosses the state, winds will decrease through the morning eventually becoming light southerly by afternoon. High pressure builds back into the Midwest as an upper trof sets up more northwesterly flow aloft. Southerly winds with warmer temps up over a melting snowpack and enhanced llvl RH setting up for a patchy advection fog threat. That being said, cloud cover may also interfere with the extent of the diurnal swing and raise the lows a bit. Have left the wording with freezing fog for now.
UPPER RIDGE AT MAXIMUM AMPLITUDE TODAY WITH PCPN ONLY ON NRN EDGE OF OUR CWA. RIDGE WILL BROADEN AND FLATTEN TONIGHT AND BUT PROBABLY LEAVING THE SNAKE BASIN DRY.
405 AM CST THU FEB 5 2015 A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE AND TROUGH PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS WILL LEAVE MUCH OF KANSAS UNDER LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
417 AM CST THU FEB 5 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST TODAY. JUST A QUESTION ON HOW MUCH WE CAN MIX INTO THIS WARMER AIR. AND WHETHER FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL BE A THREAT FROM THE STRATUS PRIOR TO MORE ROBUST MID LEVEL SATURATION LATE IN THE WEEKEND. THIS LEADS TO LOCALIZED ENHANCEMENT OF SHALLOW LIFT DUE TO A SLIGHT UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE BUFFALO RIDGE AREAS. SOME CONCERN FOR A PERIOD OF FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. HAVE ADDED THIS TO JUST THE RIDGE AREAS FOR FRIDAY EVENING.
706 AM CST Thu Feb 5 2015 Cold Canadian high pressure was sliding over the region early this morning and will remain in control of the region's weather through today and into tonight. Despite sunny skies today, temperatures will only climb into the lower to middle 30s.
SLIGHTLY WARMER IN THE WEST WITH BETTER WAA. HIGH TEMPERATURES BECOME PROBLEMATIC BY FRIDAY AS THE THERMAL RIDGE BEGINS TO EXPAND INTO THE STATE.
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER FAR SERN NEBR WITH LNK REPORTING A TEMPERATURE OF 15 BELOW. AS A STRONG PACIFIC TROUGH MOVES ONTO THE WESTERN U. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE PLAINS TONIGHT WITH ANOMALOUSLY WARM H85 TEMPS OF 11C TO 15C ACROSS WRN NEBR. LOWS TONIGHT TO BE CONSIDERABLY WARMER IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S. WARMER MOS GUIDANCE WAS USED ACROSS FAR SW NEB WHERE ONLY AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW EXISTS.
858 AM EST THU FEB 5 2015 ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TODAY AND MOVE OFF TO THE EAST ON FRIDAY.
MVFR/IFR CIGS CONTINUE LAGGING WELL BEHIND A COLD FRONT WHICH HAS NOW CLEARED ALL TAF SITES. /ISSUED 405 AM CST THU FEB 5 2015/ GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL BE USHERING COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION THIS MORNING FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. BUT THIS SHOULD END FROM NORTH TO SOUTH BY MID MORNING AS DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE LOWER LEVELS. ALLOWING FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS TO FALL BELOW FREEZING MOST LOCATIONS. THIS WILL ALLOW HIGH TEMPS TO REACH THE LOWER 70S ACROSS MUCH OF EAST TEXAS AND WESTERN LOUISIANA OVER THE WEEKEND WITH UPPER 60S IN EASTERN AREAS.
AN UPR RIDGE WL BE BUILDING OVR THE AREA TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT. A LEE TROF DEVELOPS TODAY WITH GENERALLY WESTERLY SFC WINDS. HAVE DECIDED TO LEAN TOWARD THE COOLER GUIDANCE VALUES FOR THE HIGH TEMPS TODAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST RESULTING IN DRY WEATHER. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S WILL BE COMMON ON THE LOWER DESERTS BEGINNING BEGINNING TODAY.
WARM DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS IS CENTERED JUST TO OUR WEST EARLY THIS MORNING WITH CONSIDERABLE MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING THROUGH THE RIDGE AND ACROSS THE CWA. THE HIGH CLOUDS ARE ADVERTISED TO LIFT NWD DURING THE DAY REMAINING OVER THE NRN CWA INTO THIS EVE. THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST A BIT TOMORROW AND THE AIRMASS REMAINS VERY MILD. A WEAK SYSTEM EJECTING OUT OF THE ERN PAC TROF CROSSES THE RIDGE SAT WITH ANOTHER SAT NIGHT/EARLY SUN.
1026 AM EST THU FEB 5 2015 STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES OVERNIGHT.
A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE AND TROUGH PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS WILL LEAVE MUCH OF KANSAS UNDER LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
MUCH WARMER TEMPS WILL DEVELOP TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS SW FLOW RETURNS AND AN UPPER RIDGE SLIDES EAST OVER THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS. LOW POPS LOOK SOMEWHAT REASONABLE WITH THE FRONT AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES INTO/STARTS TO CUT OFF OVER THE SW.
415 AM PST THU FEB 5 2015 FAIR AND WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE SOUTHWEST.
517 AM CST THU FEB 5 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST TODAY. JUST A QUESTION ON HOW MUCH WE CAN MIX INTO THIS WARMER AIR. AND WHETHER FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL BE A THREAT FROM THE STRATUS PRIOR TO MORE ROBUST MID LEVEL SATURATION LATE IN THE WEEKEND. THIS LEADS TO LOCALIZED ENHANCEMENT OF SHALLOW LIFT DUE TO A SLIGHT UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE BUFFALO RIDGE AREAS. SOME CONCERN FOR A PERIOD OF FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. HAVE ADDED THIS TO JUST THE RIDGE AREAS FOR FRIDAY EVENING.
TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO STRUGGLE TO REACH THE LOW/MID 60S IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA AS UPSTREAM TEMPS ARE ALREADY RUNNING A COUPLE DEGREES BELOW GUIDANCE. THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTH OF TAMPA BAY WILL EXIT INTO SOUTH FLORIDA BY THE LATE AFTERNOON HELPING GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE WATERS. GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP TODAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
Wind will veer around to the S/SE during the afternoon as new leeside trough develops.
927 AM CST THU FEB 5 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN MISSOURI WILL TRANSLATE JUST TO OUR SOUTH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE BY TO THE SOUTH OF WISCONSIN TODAY. WHILE A TROF OF LOW PRESSURE CLIPS NORTHERN WISCONSIN AS IT TRACKS ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. WEAK 700 MB UPWARD MOTION MAINLY TOWARD FRIDAY EVENING AS A LOW LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH. THE HIGHER 850 MB RH STAYS TO THE NORTH TOWARD CENTRAL AND ESPECIALLY NORTHERN WISCONSIN. THE COLD AIR BEHIND THE TROUGH IS SHALLOW WITH A LOW LEVEL INVERSION JUST BELOW 3 THSD FT. THERE IS A CHANCE OF PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE AS SURFACE AND BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES DROP. THE AIR BEHIND THE TROUGH IS NOT AS COLD AS PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS.
ANY LINGERING SNOW ACROSS SWVA SHOULD END IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO BUT MAY LINGER A FEW HOURS LONGER ACROSS THE HIGHEST PEAKS OF THE SMOKIES. CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 40 21 51 32 / 20 0 0 0 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 34 15 49 29 / 30 0 0 0 OAK RIDGE, TN 34 16 48 31 / 20 0 0 0 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 31 11 46 23 / 30 10 0 0.
325 AM MST THU FEB 5 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST RESULTING IN DRY WEATHER. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S WILL BE COMMON ON THE LOWER DESERTS BEGINNING BEGINNING TODAY.
729 PM EDT Tue Mar 28 2017 High pressure will build in Wednesday providing dry weather.
Surface based instability will remain very limited tonight as the true warm front remains to the south, and this will limit the damaging wind potential with the line or lines of storms that will move into our area overnight.
1127 PM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017 Water vapor imagery this afternoon showed an upper level low over New Mexico.
Water vapor loop continues to show split flow aloft with the main upper low well to our south. Southerly winds will pick up ahead of the trough, and with warm air advection highs should get into the upper 40s and 50s again. The challenge for this time period will be forecasting for precipitation and the location of a cold front late week.
A gradual warming trend will continue through Wednesday as high pressure builds over the region.
Currently much of the forecast area continues to see light to moderate rainfall associated with an upper low moving slowly eastward through New Mexico. expecting showers to continue tapering slowly from west to east as the upper low finally begins to shifts far enough east to end current round of precipitation. Wednesday night: Precipitation chances move out of the region from west to east as the low pressure system departs the High Plains.
Between then and now, winds will remain on the breezy side courtesy of the tightening pressure gradient between the low over Texas and high pressure off the east coast of Florida.
High pressure ridge across the area will slide slowly southward into tonight. The proximity of the ridge will again make for lighter winds across the area overnight. (Previous Discussion) Continued good boating conditions with light southwest-west winds due to weak high pressure ridge settling to south Florida.
859 PM EDT Tue Mar 28 2017 Weak low pressure will cross the area this evening.
1005 PM EDT Tue Mar 28 2017 A cold front will move through the area tonight and stall near the CSRA.
605 PM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017 A strong closed southern stream trough navigates the Central/Southern Plains over the next 24 hours.
High pressure remains over the region through early Wednesday for dry conditions.
635 PM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017 Water vapor imagery this afternoon showed an upper level low over New Mexico.
Bumped up lows a couple of degrees for tonight, now in the lower to mid 40s.
Ceilings will vary from VFR to IFR through the evening, with sub-VFR conditions also expected behind a cold front that will move through the terminals Wednesday morning. Along with hail one of the main threats for areas off the caprock is tornadoes as the warm front begins to push northward and the dryline pushes eastward. While PoPs are still present in the current forecast they have been lowered to slight chance and may need to be dropped depending on future evolution of the forecasted upper low.
Meanwhile, given the strong onshore winds at the lower-levels, will keep the overnight MVFR CIGS in place.
536 PM MDT Tue Mar 28 2017 Widespread rain continues for areas east of the Laramie Range as the midlevel vort max approaches from the south, especially for areas along the sfc boundary situated roughly along the WY/NE border and the Cheyenne Ridge. Road condition reports up at the I-80 Summit are mainly of slushy but slick roads early this afternoon, and air temperatures are right around freezing. Overnight lows are expected to drop into the low 30s roughly above 4500ft across the plains, so rain should change to snow at these locations with little to no accumulation anticipated. For areas near Cheyenne proper and along and west of the Laramie Range, roads could get pretty icy tonight as temperatures drop below freezing and wet roads freeze over.
A low pressure center in New Mexico this afternoon will continue with to move east this evening with decreasing shower and thunderstorm activity over northern Arizona.
Under mostly clear skies, temperatures had fallen into the upper 50s to lower 60s across the TN Valley, with dewpoints just a few degrees cooler. The low pressure system to the west will continue to move eastward, and low level winds will shift to the south after midnight. The high moving to our east and a return southerly flow will bring the frontal boundary south of the area back as a warm front.
Tonight and Wednesday The latest RAP analysis and satellite/radar imagery show high pressure stretching from central Canada to the western Great Lakes early this afternoon. Canadian high pressure will continue to build southward into the region. Despite the loss of heating, think the low stratus deck will continue to erode over Lake Michigan, but not quickly enough to prevent a mostly cloudy start to the evening along the lakeshore. Lows ranging from the mid 20s in the north to the low 30s near the Lake. Clouds will continue to thicken and lower through the day as low pressure moves across the central Plains. Temps will continue to be cooler over eastern WI due to the clouds/east wind combo.
646 PM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017 The northland will be under the influence of high pressure at the surface and aloft while a deep long wave trough affects the southern portion of MN and WI. Moisture streaming northward ahead of this low will provide more clouds to the northland which will in cooler temperatures.
In addition, a pretty good sea breeze is moving inland across the Low Country. Have the highest pops in the southern portion of the CWFA.
622 PM CDT MON MAY 16 2016 The cold front continues to make good southward progress across the area and was along the Iowa/Minnesota border into southwest Wisconsin early this afternoon. A large area of high pressure builds in from Canada and then remains over the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes region.
1010 PM EDT MON MAY 16 2016 Warm frontal action thickens and lowers the moist column overnight.
An approaching slow moving cold frontal boundary advancing east of the I-35 corridor tomorrow evening. upper low.
East to northeast winds north of this low has brought lower clouds back into the Victoria Crossroads region.
As Tuesday goes on, this front should be pushed away by high pressure advancing from the northwest. The high pressure system is forecast to grow to extend from the north plains to the northeastern states, letting it dominate Indiana weather most of the week.
A low at 850mb was centered on the CO-UT border, with warm front extending through KS toward the AR/MO/OK common border. Dewpoints up to 8C+ had reached the warm front from TX/OK/AR/LA. Meanwhile, 850mb ridge axis and colder air intrusion was noted from Sask through ND/SD/MN/IA.
The highest potential for strong to severe storms will be with the storms coming out of the Panhandles into west central/southwest OK. A cold front will also move across the region tonight into Tuesday morning.
Perhaps not as cold (or at least not as widespread below freezing temps) as last night.
/ISSUED 254 PM CDT MON MAY 16 2016/ Afternoon surface analysis depicts a warm front draped from extreme SE CO/SW KS southeastward into parts of E OK.
810 PM EDT MON MAY 16 2016 Marine A cold front will drift south through lower Michigan tonight.
1004 PM EDT MON MAY 16 2016 Another cold night is on tap for the North Country as low pressure over eastern Canada continues to dominate the weather across the Northeast. Temperatures tonight will fall to at or below freezing with patchy to areas of frost likely. High pressure begins to build into the region for Tuesday, becoming the dominant weather feature across the Northeast through the end of the work week. Elongated mid-level trough expected in place from northern Maine wswwd along the international border and into sern Ontario for Tuesday night.
18z surface data has a cold front from southern Minnesota into southern Wisconsin. High pressure ran from the Ohio Valley into northeast Nebraska. Some isolated showers may get into the highway 20 corridor late this afternoon. This evening, showers should continue in the highway 20 corridor.
A short wave trough on the western Gulf coast will move into the eastern Gulf later tonight then across the state Tue. At the surface Atlantic high pressure ridging into the Southeast U. there will be a lull in activity later this evening but the approaching short wave trough and increasing moisture will bring showers and storms along and over coastal locations toward sunrise.
Moisture advection to the north of a retreating warm front now stretched across the northern Gulf states will continue to provide chances for showers through tonight across the area. The warm front will begin to stall out across northern sections of the region Tuesday morning before returning back south as a cold front by afternoon.
Meanwhile, the next strong short wave trough was moving out of southwest Kansas and was producing the next area of widespread precipitation across western into central KS. This short wave trough, while strong enough to produce the widespread rain and embedded storms, will also be strong enough to dry things out rather quickly late tonight with subsidence and mid level dry advection. Do have slightly warmer temperatures on Tuesday in the upper 50s to lower 60s as clouds should be thinner and conditions drier than today. with slightly warmer temperatures forecast in northern KS where a bit of sunshine is possible.
Could see temperatures drop to the low-mid 30s in parts of wc WI overnight and we did include a frost advisory for the 3 northeast tier of counties in WI. mainly along the highway 8 corridor. with high pressure dominating. Temperatures should warm through the lower and mid 60s for most areas. Dry northeast flow will prevail, along with mostly sunny skies and cool highs in the low to mid 60s.
observed temperatures this hour were at or warmer than forecast. Showers over the E half of the CWA will continue to sink S near the weak cold front through the late afternoon hours.
1033 PM CDT MON MAY 16 2016 Weak cold front working through the area leading to isolated showers and storms along and east of the james river valley. As high pressure nudges eastward Tuesday night, clear skies and very light winds will allow for one more radiational night. Therefore trended lows once again toward the cooler guidance values such as MOS and some raw bias corrected readings.
An upper level ridge will build over the region tonight providing dry weather through Tuesday.
The fog may persist through tuesday morning and may occur farther east into the high plains including wheatland and cheyenne.
The surface cold front has since pushed down across eastcentral SD and southern MN.
/Tonight/ Weak ridge of high pressure is extending from southeast to northwest through central Iowa this afternoon. Dry air associated with the ridge is limiting the northward extent of precipitation across southern Iowa.
Currently, air temperatures across the Florida Keys are holding in the lower 80s, with dewpoint temperatures in the mid to upper 70s. Perhaps some dry air pockets are lingering in the lower troposphere.
The low-level +PV anomaly(ies) associated with this convection will more gradually translate eastward through the night and will be partially responsible for morning rain and afternoon convection tomorrow.
embedded within w-sw flow aloft and emanating fm the base of a trough/low over the Intermountain West. aftn highs should warm into the lower to middle 80s. West to sw flow aloft will continue as the upper low over the west digs over the swrn states before slowly beginning to eject east over the cntl plains later in the week.
Showers will redevelop overnight as a 500mb trough moves through from the West.
Looks like drier and warmer weather for the next couple of days. Coulston Upper level low over the Great Basin continues to circulate clouds across the area.