Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
100 PM EST Thu Nov 23 2017 A series of low pressure systems will track from the Gulf of Mexico NE across Florida and offshore the Carolinas late today through Friday night, providing variable cloudiness along with a slight chance of light rain, mainly in southern and eastern areas.
As low pressure shifts east of the area drier air in the mid and upper levels will gradually end the rain chances from west to east late tonight over se Ga with rain ending across ne Fl on Friday. Low level moisture will linger longer so expect clouds to hang over the area until Friday afternoon/evening when upper trough shifts towards the area.
316 PM CST Thu Nov 23 2017 Main concerns for the short term are the slight chance of drizzle or freezing drizzle in far northeast Minnesota tonight and warm temperatures with rain chances on Friday. Warm air advection aloft will continue tonight with 850 mb temperatures already well above freezing for much of the Northland and a thermal ridge farther west over the western Dakotas. BUFKIT soundings from the NAM and RAP over northeast Minnesota keep a substantial dry layer in place below the cloud deck, which will limit drizzle/freezing drizzle potential tonight. The Friday system exits the system fairly quickly Friday night, leaving some drizzle/freezing drizzle/snow chances for mainly the Arrowhead and parts of northwest Wisconsin Friday night.
1116 AM EST Thu Nov 23 2017 High pressure provides dry weather this Thanksgiving day and Friday.
326 PM EST Thu Nov 23 2017 High pressure centered over the lower Ohio valley will slide east and move off the Mid Atlantic Coast Friday. Low pressure will track across James Bay Friday night forcing a cold front across the forecast area. Overnight lows should be a few degrees warmer than last night, with lows in the upper 20s, and a little warmer near the lake. High pressure centered over the Upper Ohio Valley will move off the Mid Atlantic coast tomorrow setting up a nice SWLY flow. Models continue to bring cold front across the forecast area late Friday night ushering in cooler conditions.
This trend should continue as weak low pressure evolves to our northeast over the Atlantic while the weak low in the Gulf fills. POPs will remain quite high in the north as the boundary produces lift ahead of a slow moving mid-upper level trough. A chance for showers should linger through the night as the trough aloft approaches. The trough aloft extending well southward into the Gulf of Mexico will slowly translate eastward while gradually filling. At the surface, low pressure should become dominant in the Atlantic to our northeast, which will cause the slow moving frontal boundary to continue to sag southward.
1248 PM EST Thu Nov 23 2017 Dry high pressure will persist over the area over the next couple of days.
321 PM CST Thu Nov 23 2017 High pressure ridge over the Ohio River Valley this afternoon, and southwesterly winds will become more southerly as the evening progresses, decreasing as the boundary layer decouples for the overnight. As a mid level thermal ridge slips into the Midwest going into Friday, tomorrow 850 mb temps surge to 9-13C. Between the warm advection and ample sunshine, can expect temperatures to climb into the lower 60s and upper 50s for Central IL. Pressure gradient increasing at the surface will result in the potential for some gusty winds in advance of a developing cold front to the northwest.
231 PM EST Thu Nov 23 2017 Quiet weather is expected through Friday, with high pressure along the east coast, as our main weather influence.
Wisps of cirrus continue to rotate around an impressive 594+ dm upper high south of San Diego. Unseasonably warm temperatures will approach near record levels this afternoon in the low to mid 70s (the record at Dodge City is 74 and normal is lower 50s). Light SW winds at sunrise will trend northerly and modestly gusty by midday, as the next dry cold front arrives. Well above normal temperatures will continue into Friday regardless of a cold front projected to push through western Kansas early to mid afternoon.
Cool, dry air advecting into the forecast area in the wake of yesterday's trough passage has PW values down to 0. Strong upper ridging over the SW Conus and troughing over the eastern CONUS will result in upper NW flow over our region.
A ridge of high pressure over the desert southwest will keep VFR conditions over the area through the period.
1131 AM CST Thu Nov 23 2017 High pressure will continue to dominate through the period with widespread VFR conditions expected.
309 PM CST Thu Nov 23 2017 Weak cold front/trof to washout by early this evening. Lows to be a bit warmer than this morning's lows, in the 30s. Not much moisture is available for this front, however, with a sharp upper trof associated with it and a sfc trof just ahead of the front, some sprinkles are possible ahead of the front as it passes thru the CWA. Temps rebound quickly for Sun as sfc winds become sly to swly and the thermal ridge builds into the region. Important differences actually show up by Sun which may result in Sun being slightly cooler and Mon/Tues warmer than currently forecast. Regardless, have trended slightly cooler for Tues with an approaching cdfnt.
/issued 1030 AM EDT Sat Jul 22 2017/ High pressure ridging across south FL will keep a SW flow in place across the local area for the next several days. SW flow will continue over the coastal waters for the next several days as the high pressure ridge axis remains south of the area.
With daytime heating and lift associated with the upper level low pressure system pushing into the region, expect shower and thunderstorm development to continue to move inland.
216 PM PDT Sat Jul 22 2017 Temperatures will rise back to above normal levels this weekend as high pressure strengthens over the region.
Temperatures will be a few degrees cooler across the CWA Sunday.
202 PM MDT Sat Jul 22 2017 Latest upper analysis shows an upper low center over Winnipeg swinging a weakly defined upper trough across the forecast area. The upper ridge will continue to build and broaden, leading to dry and warm weather tonight and on Sunday.
215 PM MDT Sat Jul 22 2017 High pressure will briefly set up over the region today and Sunday so high temperatures will work their way to above normal. During Sunday night a deepening low pressure system passing through southern Canada will clip northwest Montana. Cooler air on the east side of the divide will work its way west through the valleys of northwest and west-central Montana.
Water Vapor Satellite trends this afternoon centers an upper level ridge axis over portions of the Middle and Lower Mississippi Valleys. A combination of the very hot temperatures and high surface dewpoints has produced heat index values between 105-112 today with the highest values occurring again along and west of the Mississippi River.
Sunday will be similar to today, although storms coverage may be slightly higher due to a temporary weakness in the upper ridge. Highs will range in the mid to upper 90s Sunday after morning lows in the lower to mid 70s.
A fairly broad mid-upper level trough will push southeast through the Great Lakes on Sunday. Ahead of this trough, convection is expected across the Upper Midwest this evening, with the majority shorter term guidance weakening this activity as it nears IL, though some sprinkles or isolated showers would not be unheard of. The associated cold front will pass through the area during the morning into early afternoon. Convective coverage is still a bit uncertain at this time, given the main upper forcing is north in the less unstable air, and the cold front will largely be through a good portion of the area in the afternoon. KMD 217 PM CDT Looking at a cooler and drier upcoming week.
For Sunday afternoon and early evening isolated showers and thunderstorms over the higher terrain will be possible due to the lingering moisture and day time heating.
/Issued 730 AM EDT Sat Jul 22 2017/ The main concern for today continues to be the persistent upper ridge and hot temperatures.
The upper ridge that helped bring the very warm to hot conditions across the southern CONUS continued on a weakening trend, as more moisture and upper level support from our south slowly creeps northward. So far, very warm to hot temperatures have occurred across the Tennessee Valley, with highs in the low/mid 90s so far. Expect another warm night with lows only in the low/mid 70s.
Showers have not been completely inhibited, and recent Key West Doppler radar base reflectivity data show widely scattered rain showers and an isolated thunderstorm moving northwestward between 3 and 8 knots, mainly over the extreme Gulf of Mexico just north of the lower Keys. The large-scale atmospheric pattern features a deep layer mean anticyclone centered over the western North Atlantic, with a ridge extending west-southwestward, nearly over the Florida Keys, and toward the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. The Saharan Air Plume is aligned approximately along the deep layer mean ridge line. Several hallow, weak, upper-tropospheric cold-core cyclonic vortices are drifting around the region, but these seem to be mostly decoupled from lower-tropospheric circulations and the high- energy maritime tropical boundary layer. At the surface, a high pressure ridge is centered over the southern Florida Peninsula, just north of the Florida Keys.
Otherwise, should be mostly clear well inland with temperatures inland in the low to mid 70s overnight.
Focus will shift back to the north later this evening as a cold front will focus additional convective development back to the north tonight. Tomorrow, the cold front will continue to make slow progress southward across eastern Kentucky and will continue to be the focus for additional shower and storm activity. Modest shear will be place along the cold frontal zone and will aid in the potential for a few severe storms with damaging winds continuing to be the main threat. With the increase in clouds and precipitation, temperatures may stay a touch cooler tomorrow, but we may warm up between the morning MCS and afternoon convection, with mid to upper 80s still anticipated.
Tonight and Sunday the Northern Rockies ridge builds and expands eastward into our area.
The mountains are helping storms develop west of the Pecos River, but farther north a weak upper low over east-central New Mexico and an associated shear axis over the western Permian Basin is drawing moisture north and aiding storm development in the lower elevations.
435 PM EDT Sat Jul 22 2017 Broad area of low pressure will move through the Central Great Lakes through Sunday. A cold front will move south across the area late Sunday ahead of a trough deepening aloft. High pressure will build southeast out of Canada across the Great Lakes during the first half of the week. Broad area of weak low pressure remains from the Central Great Lakes back into the Plains. Scattered showers and thunderstorms expected to re-develop on Sunday with diurnal heating ahead of a trough dropping down from the north.
A frontal boundary will continue to move to the south and east as an upper level trough moves through the Ohio Valley.
We have had some echoes over Koochiching and Itasca county as some updrafts have tried to get going, but these have not lasted long and it seems we may need to wait until the colder temperatures associated with the potent upper low over southern Manitoba moves a little closer in the next few hours. After the storms move through this evening a cooler and drier airmass will move in, and expect temperatures to fall into the 50s nearly everywhere. This cooler airmass will keep us cooler for Sunday with some lingering showers during the afternoon hours. Highs on Sunday will only get into the low to mid 70s, with cooler conditions near Lake Superior.
Cooler temperatures have been filtering in as well, but have been slow to do so in southeast NE and southwest IA where heat indices in the 100-112 range persist. Should note that while the surface front and cumulus field extends across the northern tier of KS counties at 245 PM, the impressive instability field does extend north of the front and this low-end severe potential also extends about 80 miles to the "cool" side of the surface front. Any precipitation chances will gradually diminish and shift farther south overnight with low temperatures ranging from the mid 60s north to the low 70s south. Sunday, while cooler, will still be a few degrees warmer than normal with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s.
Much needed drier/cooler air filters into the area Sunday as an area of high pressure builds in from Canada.
Drier and cooler air will then prevail for the first part of the upcoming week. Short wave and associated secondary cold front to swing south Sunday into Sunday evening.
Otherwise temperatures will be slightly cooler along and north of the boundary. Weak NW flow will be overhead Sun with a trof over the GtLakes. some amplification will occur with trofs over the Ern/Wrn USA and a broad ridge developing over the Rockies. The trof moving across Canada will drive a cool front across the Nrn 2/3 of the CONUS. That said, the most robust thunderstorms should stay along and near the cold front across northern Kansas.
621 PM EDT Sat Jul 22 2017 Broad area of low pressure will move through the Central Great Lakes through Sunday. A cold front will move south across the area late Sunday ahead of a trough deepening aloft. High pressure will build southeast out of Canada across the Great Lakes during the first half of the week. Scattered showers and thunderstorms expected to re-develop on Sunday with diurnal heating ahead of a trough dropping down from the north.
Drier and cooler air will then prevail for the first part of the upcoming week. Weak/limited forcing in the form of a cold front will continue to slide slowly southeastward, stalling out until Sunday morning when it moves out of our CWA. Short wave and associated secondary cold front to swing south Sunday into Sunday evening.
An upper-level ridge shifts east across Montana tonight and Sunday. The overall effect will be enhanced fire weather conditions due to the low relative humidity, but with light wind, no headlines for Sunday are planned for now.
Warmer temperatures are expected this afternoon, especially inland. Temperatures will then begin to moderate on Sunday as a weak upper level trough begins to develop off our coast. But then by the latter part of the week, high pressure looks to build back in again resulting in a return to warming temperatures. The clear skies and building upper level high pressure will allow for temperatures to warm this afternoon for interior locations. As of 12 pm PDT, Hayward Executive Airport was already running 8 deg F warmer than this time yesterday. Additionally, both Oakland and Livermore were running 4 deg F warmer than yesterday. The upper level ridge will still remain over the area on Sunday, though a more southerly flow in the boundary layer may aid in holding afternoon highs down by several degrees compared to today.
241 PM EDT Sat Jul 22 2017 High pressure remains off the southeast coast. An upper level trough of low pressure will move over the northeastern US early in the week. temperatures may be a degree or two cooler than today.
As high pressure builds up from the Great Basin, temperatures will warm and moisture will move into the area supporting increased showers and isolated thunderstorms.
Think best chance will actually be a bit east of where we showed previously along H85-H7 theta-e ridge axis which extends from the ern OK Panhandle SW through Canyon.
1127 AM MDT Sat Jul 22 2017 08z surface analysis showed cold front south of the CWA with weak high pressure settling in. Today through Sunday, upper ridge will build over the western US, slowly moving into the northern Plains as it flattens somewhat.
1225 PM CDT Sat Jul 22 2017 Ridge of high pressure remains over the region this morning and will result in another hot and muggy day across southeastern Kansas and the Missouri Ozarks. The ridge will start to flatten some late today and especially tonight. An upper level trough will spread south across the area Sunday/Sunday night, resulting in an upper level ridge building up to the west of the area. Temperatures will not be quite as warm on Sunday as today with the ridge flattening, but they will still be on the warm side. 850mb temperatures will be in the lower 20's C allowing highs in the lower to middle 90s. Temperatures will also be slightly cooler, but a big cool down will not occur by any means.
A cold front moving through Sunday afternoon could drive some stronger thunderstorms towards Lansing and Jackson. expect showers and isolated thunderstorms after midnight across the northern zones as vigorous short wave trough with closed upper low approaches in fast northwest flow regime. This trough will also be driving a cold front through Sunday evening.
428 PM EDT Sat Jul 22 2017 High pressure will dominate the weather through Sunday with below seasonal temperatures expected.
231 PM MDT Sat Jul 22 2017 A ridge of high pressure aloft will be over the Great Basin with a weak northwesterly flow aloft over the cwa. On Sunday, upper ridge with weak north/northwesterly flow aloft over the area. Less cloud cover will lead to warmer temperatures and will adjust them up by a degree or two. Best chance of showers and thunderstorms will be late in the day and located in or near the higher terrain, too stable for storms over the northeast plains. The upper ridge axis will shift a bit eastward and flatten a bit Sunday evening.
While temperatures have been a touch lower than yesterday, the higher dewpoints are keeping heat index values elevated (100-106F) so far today. With the upper low lingering around the coast between GLS and LCH through tomorrow am a bit hesitant to lower POPS too much. As this low washes out, we should see the upper ridge out west begin building east into the Central/Southern Plains.
Temperatures ranged from the lower 50s in the north to the mid 60s further south and in several locations near Lake Superior. SPC has our area in a Slight Risk, given a pre-frontal trough expected to deepen over Minnesota during the day. Highs today are generally expected to reach the lower 80s. Showers and thunderstorms should diminish tonight, as the upper level trough/low move east, and the best forcing moves with it. High pressure and building heights will then result in a drying trend for the afternoon. Highs will be a bit cooler on Sunday, with mainly 70s across the region.
Upper level low slowly sliding south across southern Manitoba. A secondary cold front will drop south this evening and overnight with winds becoming northerly. As a result high temperatures tomorrow will be cooler with 70s for much of the area as we remain in the northerly SFC flow ahead of high pressure across the western Dakotas.
Mid level ridge of high pressure is rather strong across the area and there is question as to how far south precip can make it.
This should allow enough sunshine for temps to reach at least the lower 90s.
High pressure will extend from the Atlantic across southern Florida and into the Gulf of Mexico through the period. A strong subtropical ridge will persist over the Florida peninsula through much of the week.
Even with this frontal passage, we will only see mild reprieve in hot temperatures with highs expected to reach into the into the low and mid 90s.
Upper level high over the desert southwest is shifting to a position that allows the subtropical unstable air from the Gulf of California to start a northward trek into the Utah-Idaho border region by Sun afternoon/evening. The slow moving nature under the upper level high could mean a flash flooding threat on Tue, and this needs to be monitored, especially the southern half of the forecast area. Messick High pressure remains firmly in control across SE Idaho, yielding high confidence in VFR conditions at all terminals with clear skies, light winds <12 knots, and no forecast concerns through early Sun afternoon. Sun afternoon, there continue to be signs in the model guidance that monsoonal moisture wrapping around the high over SW Utah will start to work north toward far southern Idaho.
The "Valley Wind Machine" is well in hand for the next 24 hours, courtesy of the location of surface features which includes a high pressure ridge across the eastern Gulf stretching into Florida and modest low pressure trough from the southern plains through west Texas and along the Sierra Madre. 850 mb flow follows suit which assists downward mixing especially during the afternoon, and the low level jet will actually keep winds up a bit more later tonight than in recent days. The low level jet remains intact Sunday and expect a quick return of gusty winds between 9 and 10 AM. VFR dominant with mainly patchy cirrus spreading southwest from the northwest Gulf convection associated with weak upper trough.
High pressure continues to dominate the forecast today. A few pin-prick showers and thunderstorms are actually poking through the ridge, but the subsidence is so strong that storms mostly likely won't get high enough to cause any widespread threats of wind. As the upper ridge weakens and allows this front into the region, the chance for showers and thunderstorms will increase.
Widespread cloud cover and sfc winds turning to the N/NE will hold temps in 80s and dewpoints near 70 F, creating peak heat indices in the lower to middle 90s which are 5-15 degrees cooler than the past several days. In terms of the heat headlines, the possibility does exist that parts of the advisory and warning areas may see heat index readings below 100 due to the cloud cover and cooler temperatures from the overnight storms. Another cold front will move through the area on Sunday afternoon.
348 PM CDT Sat Jul 22 2017 An upper level low is depicted on water vapor and upper air analysis across the southern Louisiana coast and adjacent Gulf waters.
Flow aloft becomes more E-SE later tonight as models move inverted trof, which extended from NW NM to southern Sonora MX this morning.
/Tonight through Sunday/ Giant ridge impacting the central to southern half of the country continuing to propagate southward and slowly break down. Meanwhile, 18z water vapor imagery shows two large-scale upper lows positioned in Canada. There is westward tilt with this low, as a sfc reflection will be located just ahead of the core of this upper low.
Cumulus and some storms are developing in the convergence along this trough. Heights aloft rise on Sunday with the midlvl ridge axis located near the Laramie Range by the aftn. After slightly cooler temps today, we will see around 5 degrees of warming at most locations.
221 PM CDT Sat Jul 22 2017 Slightly lower temperatures today compared to 24 hours ago and this has been the trend over the last 48 hours across our entire CWA as moisture continues to slowly increase from the south and a weakening ridge aloft to our north. This scattered coverage to our south due in part to a remnant retrograding upper level trough across the S LA Coast this aftn.
Should be enough sunshine Sunday to push highs into the low 80s most places.
Temperatures will be a little cooler tomorrow afternoon compared to today as a weak "cold" front moves in during the day, but dewpoints will still remain high and keep heat indexes in the 100 to 105 range for areas mainly along and west of I-65. High pressure over the Great Lakes will keep the weather over the region relatively "cool" through the first part of the work week.
Low pressure continues to gradually make it's way eastward thru Northern Illinois toward Ohio late this afternoon. A look upstream shows our next area of vertically-stacked low pressure poised just north of Minnesota attm. generating an area of convection just ahead of it driven by strong upper level divergence and fueled by a modest instability axis and 850 mb theta E ridge.
Tomorrow looks just as hot as today if not more so, as 850 temps will be up to 1 degree warmer than today into the 20-22C range.
507 PM MDT Fri Jul 21 2017 Upper analysis shows mainly zonal flow across the northern CONUS as an upper low flattens the broad upper ridge as it crosses the Canadian prairie provinces and swings and weak upper trough across the northern plains.