Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
745 PM EST Mon Feb 6 2017 No major changes this evening as high pressure remains in control with lighter easterly flow across the region. Isolated thunderstorm can not be ruled out as the trough gradually moves closer to the Florida peninsula.
The first disturbance, in the form of a Pacific cold front will cross the area this evening and into the overnight producing snow showers. Models have struggled greatly with evolution of a line of snow showers forming along the cold front, but seem to be getting a better handle on it this afternoon. The snow showers will be focused along an area of strong frontogenesis associated with the cold front.
Temperatures are expected to fall into the lower 30s tonight and then rise into the 60s to lower 70s by Tuesday afternoon.
A low pressure system is expected to affect the area through Tuesday evening.
This fog is not expected to hang in as long however, with winds increasing as the approaching low pressure system to our northwest deepens. Overnight lows will be in the low 50s.
This system will help nudge a dry line followed by a weak cold front into the area. this boundary will dissipate and await another in a series of disturbances moving through the base of a broad trough of low pressure across the central and eastern sections of the country.
I have gone with a dense fog advisory for the southeast 1/2 or so, continuing through the rough time frame of the cold front tomorrow morning.
The return flow around the high will produce warmer overnight temperatures. Low temperatures tonight will be in the low/mid 50s inland and upper 50s coast.
At the same time, a cold front poised along the NE/SD border will begin to push southward into at least northeast NE tonight, then across the forecast area on Tuesday.
1025 PM EST Mon Feb 6 2017 Warm front crosses overnight. Cold front crosses Tuesday night.
Isolated thunderstorm can not be ruled out as the trough gradually moves closer to the Florida peninsula.
655 PM EST Mon Feb 6 2017 A warm front will bring a wintry mix to parts of the region late tonight into Tuesday morning, changing to rain during the day as temperatures rise well above freezing.
618 PM EST Mon Feb 6 2017 A strengthening low pressure system will move northeast from Missouri tonight, to Michigan on Tuesday, causing unseasonably warm temperatures, showers, and a few thunderstorms across our area during this time frame.
410 PM CST Mon Feb 6 2017 Abnormally warm temperatures have once again materialized over the area and spread further north where the warm front moved through this morning.
1135 PM CST Sat Feb 11 2017 Surface cold front at early afternoon was across the mid portion of the forecast area with record setter at Chanute in the upper 70s to near 80 degrees. Despite being much cooler the next few days, temperatures will still average a little above seasonal climo for mid-February.
Therefore, the High Risk Of Rip Currents for the east coast beaches of South Florida has been allowed to expired. These numbers will likely be the highs for the day, with overnight lows similar to last night in the mid-upper 50s interior/Gulf coast and mid-upper 60s for the east coast. Conditions look a little more favorable for more widespread fog Sunday night as the ridge axis drops south and the region comes under light SW flow.
300 AM CST Sun Feb 12 2017 A cold front is moving across the area at this time, and will be through the CWFA by 12-13Z. Some low clouds just behind the front this morning will continue moving to the south-southeast, but the low clouds should dissipate and move out of the area by noon. Went with an operational MAV/MET compromise, which is about 5-7 degrees warmer than the short-range ensemble guidance. High pressure will build overhead tonight. With light wind and a mostly clear sky, should see temperatures drop back below freezing.
A dome of high pressure will continue to filter cold air into the area through this afternoon bringing northerly winds to southwest Kansas. Thereafter, the center of high pressure will slide southward through Kansas decreasing wind speeds and shifting winds to more of a southerly direction. This is in response to an upper level low moving into the Southern Rockies.
328 AM EST Sun Feb 12 2017 Gloomy start to the short term period will be followed by clear and dry conditions following the passage of a cold front.
Scattered light showers are possible through the morning hours before rain coverage increases in the afternoon ahead of an approaching cold front, which will move through between 20-00Z.
334 AM CST Sun Feb 12 2017 The frontal system that brought the light rain/drizzle to area is quickly moving east out of the area with high pressure moving into the central plains right behind it. The lower clouds still across most the CWA should also quickly push east of the area with areas in the east and southeast being the last ones to lose the clouds, probably around noon. So, by this afternoon, there should be plenty of sunshine to overcome the CAA associated with the high pressure area. Clear skies and lighter winds are expected tonight and with the cooler and drier high pressure dominating the area, temps should get plenty cold tonight, dropping into the mid to upper 20s by morning.
A cold front moving southward through the area will bring north winds and improved ceilings starting with the northern TAF sites around 21Z Saturday and eventually to KHBG in the south by the very end of the forecast period. A narrow window for lower ceilings and/or BR could accompany the cold front passage but should improve quickly behind the front. As we go into Sunday afternoon and night, a cold front will push south across the ArkLaMiss and bring another intrusion of continental polar air. Even with the cooler air, temperatures will remain above climatic normal for this time of the year.
333 AM CST Sun Feb 12 2017 Cold front currently draped across srn OK continues to dip sewd this morning, bringing temps in the 50s and very gusty winds to much of OK.
Mid/upper level moisture plume across Wy shifting southeast as an upper trough over the northern Rocky Mtns moves east. This trough will pass across the CWA by early this evening with clearing conditions behind it.
253 AM CST Sun Feb 12 2017 Breezy northwest winds will persist through much of the daytime today, as heights rise rapidly in the high plains. The strong surface pressure gradient persist through midday, then relaxes in the afternoon as the high pressure center moves southeast across the central Plains. Lows will reach the low to mid 20s.
This wave will drive a cold front through the region, and as a result should see cooler temperatures on Sunday compared to the last couple of days, but not a significant cool down since highs will still be around 10 degrees above the seasonal average for mid- February. After a minor cool down Sunday following the trough, another ridge will build into the Plains with the jet stream shifting northeast.
Through the morning, isentropic lift will produce cloduy skies and isolated to scattered showers, with the most likely time for rain coming around 18Z when convergence along a pre-frontal trough moves through.
The low clouds that were expected some 24 hours ago are to the north of our CWA. This is from both an upper level low over west Texas and a short wave digging south across the upper midwest.
Today will be much cooler then yesterday with CAA filtering into the area behind a cold front that moved through later in the day. Despite the cooler temperatures, fire weather will be a concern. Luckily, it appears the strongest winds will be in the morning before weakening in the afternoon when dewpoints start to drop off as high pressure begins to move into the area.
However areas of light mixed precip have been redeveloping over mostly central and northern CWA in past 1-2 hours as upstream sharpening mid-level short wave trof approaches. Some light freezing rain/drizzle earlier across parts of northern CWA per calls to county sheriffs. By mid-morning as cold front exits area, expect bulk of light precipitation to have ended with clearing skies. Low level mixing and strong low level winds behind departing cold front wl result in windy conditions developing from mid-morning through early afternoon and lasting for much of the afternoon.
Surface cold front and period of stronger winds have passed east of the fcst area. Thus for the upcoming day expect a lighter west to northwest wind as high pressure slides southeast thru Montana. Remaining stratocu around the departing upper low will exit Baudette-Bemidji early this morning leaving plenty of sunshine for all areas today. Favorable west to northwest sfc wind argues for a tad warmer temps in the RRV then blended model guidance shows.
High pressure moves overhead tonight, with lows dropping into the teens and 20s.
Areas of rain will end next few hours as low pressure and trailing cold front over central Indiana moves on to the east.
High pressure will dominate the areas weather tonight with dry conditions and mostly clear skies.
253 AM CST Sun Feb 12 2017 Cooler air continues to advect across the local area early this morning behind a secondary cold front that is now moving across northern Kansas. In addition to the cooler airmass. Despite the cooler airmass advecting in. Then, with high pressure and mainly clear skies setting up across the region this evening. expect for a cooler night than we have seen of late, and adjusted down lows accordingly - although possibly not quite enough given the near ideal radiational cooling set-up.
Cold front will switch winds around to the north with an uptick in forward speed by mid to late morning.
Water Vapor imagery showing a low circulation off the coast of southern California with upper ridging off the west coast into Washington State.
323 AM CST Sun Feb 12 2017 H5 analysis tonight has a closed low in the vicinity of Santa Barbara California. Good subsidence had set in overnight across western and north central Nebraska behind an exiting cold front. Further southwest, even with warmer H85 temps, lighter winds will limit mixing, so highs in the middle to upper 40s look on track. For tonight: High pressure will move southeast into Missouri and eastern Kansas.
A low pressure system will bring cooler temperatures, rain, and some high elevation snow to northern Arizona this weekend.
A cold front will approach from the northwest but will not reach our CWA until late this evening.
334 AM CST Sun Feb 12 2017 THe cold front had made its way through the Ozarks early this morning with northerly winds noted across all of the region.
Temperatures will be cooler today, especially in the south and west with the passage of the thermal trof.
high pressure over western Atlantic continues to help stream in moist airmass into Deep South while low pressure over Missouri is slowly moving northeast while dragging a cold front SE. Main sensible weather feature will be approach of aforementioned cold front. Have therefore trended POPs mainly along cold front as all showers.
High pressure remains situated off the East Coast this morning while an area of low pressure is moving into the southern Great Lakes Region. A cold front is draped to the sw of the low into the Texas Panhandle. Today the aforementioned ridge will sink south and east while the the low moves into the Great Lakes.
Secondary band of rain in association with large scale sw trough to follow mid to late morning. This also holds deeper low level thermal troughing farther north and prevents any srn lake MI response either this aftn or evening and will dump prior mention. Ewd bend of this sys along with general poor wrn lake aggregate thermal troughing and scant moisture again heralds a limited lake response if any Wed.
/issued 817 PM EST Sat Feb 11 2017/ Strong high pressure east of Florida continues to ridge west over central Florida producing pleasant weather overnight.
A cold front will move through tonight resulting in a shift in wind direction to northerly. Adjusted temperatures accordingly, but the challenge is how fast temperatures cool with calm winds and mostly clear skies through midnight, before the arrival of the surface cold front from the north. /issued 237 PM CST Sat Feb 11 2017/ After an unbelievably warm day across the area today, a cold front will push south through the area tonight, bringing in more seasonal weather.
Behind the precipitation and front, cooler air will get ushered into the region. A strong high pressure system will then begin building in across the northern US on Sunday. As this high builds southeastward, dry weather and clear to partly cloudy skies return the the central Plains. Highs in the low 40s across the north and upper 40s in the south are expected.
1136 PM CST Sat Feb 11 2017 Ceilings to become MVFR/IFR across area terminals overnight ahead of a cold front.
Cold front associated with the upper trough over the Great Lakes region will work its way southward today, and move through the mid state this morning through the mid afternoon.
A rainy night is ahead for Central Indiana as a quick moving area of Low Pressure will sweeps across Indiana. A cold front trailing the low will bring cooler temps to but dry weather to much of the area on Sunday. Large High pressure is then expected to build across the area from the Central Plains early next work week. Surface analysis early this afternoon shows Low pressure over eastern Kansas along with a warm front stretching eastward across Missouri and into Illinois and Indiana. Forecast soundings show good saturation within the lowest 300mb of the column and time heights also indicate good forcing through 06Z. strong subsidence and high pressure will continue to build across the state from the west.
304 AM CST Sun Feb 12 2017 A cold front is currently working to the south across eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas. The cold front is expected to exit the area by mid-morning. The cooler air surging into the area behind the front will ensure that there will not be a repeat of Yesterday's record breaking heat.
Aloft, a longwave trough axis from western Hudson Bay extends south nearly aligned with the Mississippi River. This trough will help nudge the cold front eastward. Behind the front, an expansive area of high pressure over the northern Rockies will fill in from the west while drier northwest flow aloft will prevail through tonight. Will then look for mainly clear skies from later this morning through tonight as dewpoints plateau then drop with temperatures today cooler than yesterday. Highs today will range from the lower 30s in western WI to the lower 40s in southwestern MN.
A moderate-strength cold front will pass from north to south through the area on Sunday afternoon, halting diurnal warming about 10F below today's highs.
233 AM MST Sun Feb 12 2017 Rex blocking pattern has set up across the western CONUS this morning. Upper ridging is building in to the region with strong subsidence taking over. Surface analysis shows high pressure centered just south of the CWA.
1140 PM CST Sat Feb 11 2017 Fairly tight temperature gradient present across the region this afternoon as a warm front settles across the I-70 corridor. Expect areas in the E/NE winds north of I-70 to remain in the 60s this afternoon, but areas south of that warm front have climbed well into the 70s. The best and likely only chance for precipitation will come early to middle part of the upcoming week as a closed mid level trough lumbers through the Southern Plains.
A split flow pattern holds over western and central NOAM through much of the period with the Northern Plains stuck under a fairly dry and unseasonably warm H5 ridge.
A strong cold front will continue racing southward across the southern TX Panhandle with windy conditions along with associated gusts occuring at all TAF sites for many hours behind this boundary. Strong cold front is begining to push into the OK Panhandle and should continue movg southward rather quickly this evening with gusty winds in its wake. /Issued 546 PM CST Sat Feb 11 2017/ For the 00Z TAFs, a strong cold front will move across the TX and OK Panhandles this evening with windy conditions along with associated gusts occuring at all TAF sites for many hours behind this boundary. /Issued 420 PM CST Sat Feb 11 2017/ Cold front is poised to move into the Oklahoma Panhandle at this time, and it is expected to sweep through all of the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles before midnight.
Winds will become more E-ly through the afternoon as a cold front approaches the region.
An approaching cold front will cross our area this evening.
An inversion around 740mb has the moisture trapped in the lowest layers of the atmosphere and quite dry above that. The clouds should also hold on, keeping the low temperatures above what the highs should normally be. Warm air advection pattern and thicknesses remain very close on Sunday ahead of an approaching cold front. A cold front will move through Central Alabama on Sunday but rainfall amounts should remain light this period too.
The lowest layer of the atmosphere, generally below 850mb, still remains rather dry, with the driest air along the northern and southern fringes of our atmosphere. With a breezy or windy northwest wind, albeit going down in the afternoon, would not be shocked if highs end up a category warmer. In general, all models are in agreement on the evolution of the pattern with a long wave ridge moving from the Rockies into the western Great Lakes by the end of the week.
241 AM EST Sun Feb 12 2017 Low pressure will track across the lower Great Lakes on Sunday, before reforming off the New Jersey coast Sunday afternoon.
1140 PM EST Sat Feb 11 2017 Low pressure will track across the lower Great Lakes on Sunday, before reforming off the New Jersey coast Sunday afternoon.
240 AM CST Sun Feb 12 2017 The main impactful weather concern will be on a light rain and possibly freezing rain mix early this morning with minimal impact to travel. With temperatures right around the freezing mark along and north of Interstate 90, snow may mix in at times. The cold air advection then drops off a bit by this afternoon so temperatures could actually rise a bit this afternoon into the lower to upper 30s. High pressure moves across the region tonight providing dry and quiet weather.
A northern stream trough was tracking across eastern Montana this afternoon on WV imagery with a 140 kt jet streak along its downstream flank. Meanwhile, a 1005 mb low pressure cell pushed through the southern CWA today and was centered just southeast of Kansas City by the mid afternoon hours. As the low pulls east tonight, winds will back to the NNW and increase as the pressure gradient tightens over NE Kansas. Increasing CAA through the boundary layer will steepen lapse rates in the lowest 50-75 mb of the column with winds of 25-30 kts at the top of the BL. Highs on Sunday will fall into the upper 40s to around 50 with winds also on the decline through the day as high pressure approaches from the NW.
1125 PM CST Sat Feb 11 2017 A cold front will push across the region tonight bringing an end to the record breaking warmth. A high amplitude pattern will evolve the next few days as an upper level ridge builds over the western U. and a series of upper level troughs dig into the northeastern U. An upper low will become cutoff across the southern High Plains before eventually shearing out.
The biggest change to the short term is increasing the winds later tonight into tomorrow morning with the passage of a cold front and an exiting low pressure system. An area of high pressure starts to move in Sunday afternoon and this will drop wind speeds and relative humidities for the rest of the day. Temperatures tonight are expected to fall back into the mid to upper 30s and cooler temperatures are expected for Sunday with highs in the mid to upper 40s.
An approaching cold front will cross our area Sunday evening.
A cold front will works its way into the area from the north late tomorrow afternoon through tomorrow evening with winds shifting mainly to the north and northeast behind the boundary. Upper trof currently over Ca will advance toward west Tx.
Cigs will trend downward with mainly MVFR cigs by daybreak, Scattered light showers will develop with the approach of a cold front from the northwest. With lows forecasted tonight in the low to mid 60s, many record highest minimum temperatures values across Middle Tennessee will be shattered.
As a strong cold front approaches from the north this afternoon, an increase in mid level moisture will erode the cap enough for a band of showers to develop just ahead of the cold front.
Winds will decrease quickly this evening as upper ridge begins to build from the west.
Weak upper ridging today gives way to flat NW flow tonight into Mon. , then a stronger ridge of high pressure builds over the area later on Mon. Lee troughing developing over the area early this morning, will remain over the region into tonight, bringing breezy conditions to areas from KBIL W.
111 AM EST Sun Feb 12 2017 High pressure will prevail through Sunday.
1255 AM EST Sun Feb 12 2017 Low pressure will bring rain and warm temperatures overnight into Sunday. Deeper moisture, associated with blossoming precipitation just south of I-70 in Ohio, will slowly spread northeastward through the night as low pressure approaches. Values will remain well above seasonal averages with a slightly early reach to max temperatures with an afternoon cold front passage. The low pressure system is expected to intensify before transitioning to the coast. The HWO continues to highlight the wind concerns, with a watch in effect for the ridges, where the highest wind gusts are possible.
However, this will be short-lived as low clouds will begin spreading back into the area overnight ahead of a cold front. Clearing and cooler conditions will follow the front with temperatures falling during Sunday afternoon.
125 AM EST Sun Feb 12 2017 Warm front lifts north tonight, followed by a cold front later Sunday.
1115 PM CST Sat Feb 11 2017 Early afternoon water vapor imagery indicated a progressive positively-tilted trough over eastern MT. This cold front will track southeast through the CWA overnight with winds increasing from the northwest.
A cool high pressure system will settle into the area on Sunday. Skies will clear and winds will diminish as the high moves in, but the temperatures will be cooler than today.
303 AM CST Sun Feb 12 2017 The sfc map early this morning shows a large area of high pressure stretching from the Pacific Northwest through western SD/NE. As we progress through the day, it will shift across central NE/KS, while building a ridge across our area.
Will then be watching a cold front work across the area this evening with gusty northwest winds behind it.
Upper trough, which should bring us a few showers/storms late this afternoon, will swing through the region tonight. In its wake, we'll see a reinforcing shot of cooler and drier air. 6" and dewpoints in the low/mid 50s, will keep the forecast dry for now. For the overnight, high pressure will nose in from the west and we should see those clouds start to scatter out.
Weak cold front will move into NE OK/NW AR late tonight with light and variable winds ahead of front. /ISSUED / Earlier this evening, scattered thunderstorms developed along a cold front in Kansas near I-70. After another slightly cooler than average night again tonight.
Concur with the GFS ensemble mean that the upper trough (with axis just offshore) will move slowly east/southeast and decay during the period. ) Cooler tonight/early Tuesday over the WRN CWA owing to drier conditions.
With upper ridge also building over southern plains, this convection should push south of area this eve, with skies becmg mostly clear by late tonight and clouds becmg rather limited thru much of the week.
A cold front will cross the Ohio Valley tonight then the mid Atlantic region on Tuesday.