Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Low pressure continues to deepen off the Carolinas and current surge of North winds down the Atlantic Coastal Waters is still producing scattered showers and isolated storms with some heavy downpours impacting the waters and the beaches from jacksonville southward to Palm Coast, this shower activity will shift further southward this morning, then further offshore this afternoon and tonight as drier airmass pushes in from the North. Max Temps will range from near 80 degrees along the Atlantic Coast to the lower to middle 80s over inland areas. Min temps tonight will range from the lower to middle 60s over inland areas, to around 70 degrees in the onshore flow along the Atlantic Coast.
Showers will be increasing across North-Central Idaho and Northwest Montana this morning ahead of a cold front.
A warm front and low level jet will lift north tonight possibly leading to a few showers and storms late tonight into Sunday morning.
Upper ridging extends from the Gulf Coast through the Mid-South into the OH Valley this morning. Just a few high clouds are spilling over the ridge into the Mid-South. Meanwhile to the west, a potent mid level trough is pushing through the Four Corners region. Mid level trough moving quickly across the southern plains overnight will push a cold front toward the Mid- South. Some surface based instability develops during the afternoon as the cold front pushes east of the MS River so redevelopment may occur across West TN and North MS but the upper support will be quickly pulling NE by this time. The cold front will stall from north AL into north- central MS Monday night as convection pushes east/southeast of the Mid-South during the evening and weakens.
This system will push a weak surface cold front into the region on Monday. This front looks to stall just northwest and north of the forecast area as the upper level energy moves off to the northeast and an upper level ridge begins to strengthen over the Gulf of Mexico. Southerly flow ahead of this system looks to increase moisture profiles enough that scattered showers and a few thunderstorms will be possible across portions of the forecast area, mainly west of the lower Acadiana area starting late Sunday night into Monday evening.
1155 PM CDT Sat Oct 9 2021 A lead short wave moving through SD this afternoon will send a cold front through wrn and ncntl Nebraska tonight. The temperature forecast tonight and Sunday leans on the short term model blend which is slightly warmer with lows and cooler with highs. Mixing associated with cold air advection tonight is the reasoning with the warmer lows. The short term model blend was only slightly cooler than the guidance blend for highs Sunday. The cooler guidance blend was the basis for lows in the 30s. The models continue to converge on the timing and track of a major fall cyclone.
Upper level ridging centered over the western Gulf and stretching northeastward along the Appalachians will remain in control of weather conditions across Central Alabama today and tonight. Lows tonight will be in the low to mid 60s.
1259 AM EDT Sun Oct 10 2021 Warm and primarily dry conditions will persist through early Monday with highs in the low to mid 80s. Remnant upper low finally lifting into Canada with strong SW flow ramping up quickly over our area as next trough approaches. Associated warm front and uptick in isentropic upglide could yield a few light rain showers late tonight into early Sun. There is however relatively dry air in the lower levels and best 305K cross-isobar flow is focused just to our north. Healthy mid/upper level dynamics associated with this wave given negatively tilted trough, strong CVA, and good upper divergence on nose of 90kt 300mb jet. Cooler (but still above normal) and drier conditions briefly return late Tue into Wed but next trough/cold front quickly approaches Wed night/Thu.
1029 PM MDT Sat Oct 9 2021 Scattered showers and storms will continue this afternoon as northern stream upper low slowly pushes through the Northern Plains. Precipitation chances will wane late tonight into Sunday morning as northern upper low departs and the southern stream vort max begins to eject across the southern plains.
345 AM EDT Sun Oct 10 2021 A warm front is bringing showers and a few thunderstorms this morning, but the remainder of the day should be dry.
Satellite loop shows some mid and high cloud streaming into central Indiana on the leading edge of an upper ridge. Tempertures are in the lower 70s with dewpoints in the 60s and southeasterly winds around 4 to 8 mph. Model data suggest upper ridging, currently over the area, will gradually shift east into the Appalachian region, as a piece of the western trough kicks out into the Plains by Monday morning. Warm advection expected to increase across the area tonight into Sunday, as the ridge shifts off to the east. Temperatures will continue above normal during the period, under the influence of the upper ridge and sustained warm advection. Also, the NAM is showing the potential for a pre-frontal trough leading to 2 lines of convection, which could complicate matters.
A pleasant fall day is expected tomorrow as a ridge slides east and high pressure dominates with sub-70 degree dewpoints locked in place. Warm and dry weather is forecast for the short term as upper level ridging moves into the region.
329 AM EDT Sun Oct 10 2021 In the upper levels, a cutoff low is positioned northeast of Florida, with broad ridging building into the western Gulf of Mexico. These features will create a Rex block setup, with the trough digging south towards Cuba through the first half of the week, and the ridge spreading east across the Gulf. At the surface, an amplified ridge is extending south into the Gulf from the eastern CONUS, while a low pressure system treks north just off the Carolina Coast.
This will allow a cold front to slip south through the forecast area tonight ushering slightly cooler temperatures into the region for Sunday. This is not anticipated to last long as the system quickly moves northeast into Wisconsin allowing weak upper-level ridging to build overhead.
334 AM EDT Sun Oct 10 2021 High pressure to our east will maintain onshore flow through tonight with mostly cloudy skies, but generally dry weather.
Discussion: Upper ridging is slowly building into Tennessee with surface ridging. BW Chattanooga Airport, TN 83 63 81 66 82 / 0 0 0 10 20 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 82 60 82 63 80 / 0 0 0 10 20 Oak Ridge, TN 81 60 80 63 80 / 0 0 0 10 20 Tri Cities Airport, TN 79 55 80 58 78 / 0 0 0 10 10.
Breezy winds will also develop followed by cooler temperatures.
148 AM EDT Sun Oct 10 2021 High pressure will extend into the region into Monday.
946 PM MDT Sat Oct 9 2021 A cold front is currently progressing across the forecast area with gusty winds and cooler temperature behind it. The possibility of precipitation across the far southern portion of the forecast area has steadily migrated further south, nearly out of the area, from Sunday through Sunday evening as the upper trough sweeps across the High Plains region. The more significant system to affect the central high Plains region will be the upper trough moving into and deepening across the western U. At the start of the period, an upper closed low pushes into the Desert Southwest, placing southwest flow over the region.
400 AM EDT Sun Oct 10 2021 High pressure will extend into the region into Monday.
Looking at the synoptic setup across the country, upper level water vapor imagery is showing an elongated trough extending from the Intermountain West to the central California coastline. Within a stream of moisture ahead of that trough, a thick batch of cirrus clouds had been in place over much of the CWA today. Surface obs at 20Z show a 1000 mb area of low pressure in central Nebraska and breezy southwesterly winds in eastern Kansas. Tonight, the western trough will split into two waves. If the higher instability values can be realized, there will be a risk for severe thunderstorms initially given effective bulk shear values around 50 kts.
In the upper levels, trough/upper low over the Dakotas will lift north over the period. By 12z tomorrow, the upper level trough should be centered over the KS/MO border with a 70kt 500h jet streak over southern MO.
Will expect not fully a moving out of the showers but rather a drying up of them as the low pulls slowly east, lift is lost, and drier air works in from the northwest.
646 AM CDT Sun Oct 10 2021 Light northwesterly winds are being observed across the area this morning behind a weak cold front that crossed the local area overnight. expect an upper level low to lift east northeast out of the desert southwest and into the southern/central plains.
The lower elevation snowfall will not take place until Mon night, when the colder air finally gets cold enough to support snow.
Center of mid/upper level cut off low just off the east coast of FL will shift slowly southward today, while at the surface a weak trough axis will remain extended across south FL. Low level N/NE will continue across the area north of this trough, which models show will increase moisture slightly through the afternoon. Skies will be partly sunny with highs in the low to mid 80s at the coast and mid-upper 80s inland.
404 AM MDT Sun Oct 10 2021 Broad, splitting upper trof across Colorado, with main upper low over the Dakotas and the southern branch of energy dropping into New Mexico today and then into Kansas tonight. For this afternoon, high pressure ridge aloft building into Colorado through tonight with a drying and more subsident airmass. Temperatures will be cooler today behind the trof as 700mb temperatures drop to around +2c, resulting in high temperatures in the 60s across the plains. Upper ridging is pushing east on Monday with southwesterly flow aloft ahead of an approaching upper trough/closed low.
A cold front was taking shape across the northern Texas Panhandle. As the Pacific cold front moves in behind the dryline, we will see temperatures drop, with lows in the 50s by Monday morning.
643 AM EDT Sun Oct 10 2021 Upper level trough remains east of the area, while upper ridge begins building in from the southwest. Although low pressure will develop along the North Carolina coast, a pressure ridge will dominate across the area and expect warm and mainly fair weather for the next few days. A trough axis will remain to our east, with the best forcing across that area as well. Overnight, mostly clear skies are expected, with lows in the low and mid 60s. Center of upper ridge remains across the Gulf of Mexico, with a closed upper low situated off the southern Florida coast through the period. The ridge axis will extend northeastward and over the forecast area.
An area of subsevere showers and thunderstorms are working their way through the region this morning as an occluded upper level low pressure system moves by to the west putting our CWA in an area of isentropic lift.
641 AM EDT Sun Oct 10 2021 A warm front is bringing showers and a few thunderstorms this morning, but the remainder of the day should be dry.
958 AM EDT Sun Oct 10 2021 An upper-level trough will continue to influence the local weather today. Later today, convection near Cuba may push a few boundaries over the Lower Keys, which could cause a few showers and thunderstorms to develop today.
Dry and cooler weather is on tap today, cooling further by the middle of the week as a weather system transits the region.
955 AM EDT Sun Oct 10 2021 Dry high pressure builds in today and remains in place through the week with warming temperatures. A cold front is forecast to arrive at the end of the week. As of 945 AM: Broad-scale subsidence and gradually drying profiles in the mid-layers are in store for today owing to 500 mb ridge shifting in from the west. As of 205 AM Sunday: An upper ridge remains in place across the SE CONUS thru the period. An upper low passes by to our west and north as it rides up and over the ridge. At the surface, a ridge of high pressure centered over the NE CONUS remains over our area through the period.
621 AM EDT Sun Oct 10 2021 A weak low pressure system will track up the east coast today into Monday.
850 AM EDT Sun Oct 10 2021 A weak low pressure system will track up the east coast today into Monday.
643 AM EDT Sun Oct 10 2021 High pressure will extend into the region into Monday.
The only blemish will be the passage of mid/high level clouds associated with an upper trough lifting well northwest of the region towards Ontario. ridge will expand northward over the region Monday as troughing deepens over the central U. High pressure will remain to our east, promoting weak warm/moist advection and resulting in temperature readings 15 degrees above normal (with many sites expected to hit 80). That trough will be the first in a series of waves that attempt to breakdown the upper ridge, but will be relatively unsuccessfully as it weakens while being shunted to our northwest as it heads to Ontario. If showers are able to develop, the best chance will be during the aftn/eve (coincident with peak heating) and favor the I-80 corridor plus the eastern ridges given closer proximity to upper support and a little orographic lift, respectively.
848 AM MDT Sun Oct 10 2021 815AM UPDATE: Changes this morning were focused on river valley fog that has formed across the lower Yellowstone and Missouri Rivers. GAH MORNING DISCUSSION: A departing upper low pressure system will exit into the Upper Midwest as upper ridging sets up over eastern Montana for today. As the ridge axis shifts east into the Dakotas, west winds will ramp up this afternoon and evening with a Lake Wind Advisory going into effect for the Fort Peck Lake area.
416 AM CDT Sun Oct 10 2021 Light northwesterly winds are being observed across the area this morning behind a weak cold front that crossed the local area overnight. expect an upper level low to lift east northeast out of the desert southwest and into the southern/central plains.
A cold storm system moves through the region tonight and Monday for much cooler temperatures with a chance for rain and snow in central Montana.
After a sunny day, a strong cold front arrives tonight and bring showers with rain changing over to snow Monday morning. The change will be furious as a amplifying trough brings the coldest air mass of the season. For the higher mountain passes, slippery or slushing conditions should be expected. Strong gradient northwest flow develops across central Nevada in the wake of the cold front. Forecast tools such as the extreme forecast index show anomalous winds across the southern half of Nevada with this trough.
645 AM EDT Sun Oct 10 2021 High pressure to our east will maintain onshore flow through tonight with mostly cloudy skies, but generally dry weather.
1040 AM EDT Sun Oct 10 2021 High pressure will extend into the region into Monday.
341 AM MDT Sun Oct 10 2021 A departing upper low pressure system will exit into the Upper Midwest as upper ridging sets up over eastern Montana for today. As the ridge axis shifts east into the Dakotas, west winds will ramp up this afternoon and evening with a Lake Wind Advisory going into effect for the Fort Peck Lake area.
1009 AM EDT Sun Oct 10 2021 A weak low pressure system will track up the east coast today into Monday.
709 AM EDT Sun Oct 10 2021 A weak low pressure system will track up the east coast today into Monday.
346 PM CDT Sun Oct 10 2021 Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue in far NW MO as isentropic ascent and the exit region of the low level jet meet ahead of the front. We are also keeping our eyes on an approaching trough making its way into NW TX and OK through the afternoon. This trough amplifies lift and instability as it moves eastward triggering more widespread showers and thunderstorms throughout the region late this evening. The trough then shifts to a NE track passing though central MO bringing rain to much of the region overnight Sunday into Monday. Around 1"-2" of rainfall is expected for much of the region minus far NW MO where the front may already pass before the axis of the trough reaches the region.
349 PM EDT Sun Oct 10 2021 A weak low pressure system will track up the east coast tonight and Monday. An anomalous upper level ridge will build over the eastern seaboard the remainder of the week, bringing mainly dry weather and warm temperatures to the region.
Vertically stacked/occluded upper low remains over our CWA, with deformation zone rain band in our west, clusters of showers still rotating around the center, and more organized convection to our east. The upper low should start to pick up its motion eastward and showers should slowly exit west to east through the evening, with further reductions in coverage/intensity with sunset and loss of daytime heating. Cloud cover should limit diurnal cooling some, so while a few locations may reach the mid 30s, most should remain around 40 or a bit warmer despite cooler temps aloft.
The upper ridge that is responsible for today's terrific weather is going to be challenged by a strong, negatively tilted trough swinging into the mid-Mississippi Valley tomorrow morning. most of the area is capped by the upper ridge. Our mid-state counties will then return to a dry period as upper ridging dominates the southeast U. We won't be under the axis of this ridge (which would drive temperatures even warmer), so we should remain in the low to mid 80s throughout the week.
At 19Z this afternoon, water vapor imagery shows one upper level low located over western Minnesota with another moving eastward toward the Texas panhandle out of New Mexico. At the surface, a cold front has been moving east through the CWA today and has nearly stalled the last few hours near or just east of Topeka. The upper low south of the area will swing into Kansas tonight and will produce a large batch of precipitation associated with area of enhanced vertical ascent.
Latest surface analysis places two areas of strong low pressure across the CONUS this afternoon. The first area is a 996mb low over central Minnesota with a cold front extending southwest through the Central Plains and into north Central Texas.
An upper ridge will largely persist over the region through Monday.
148 PM EDT Sun Oct 10 2021 High pressure will extend into the region into Monday.
142 PM EDT Sun Oct 10 2021 High pressure will cover the Mid Atlantic region through Monday as a low moves slowly northeast away from the North Carolina coast. Sun angle is getting lower so making it tougher to mix out the low stuff. High pressure and relatively drier air will wedge south into the area Monday night. Meanwhile, an upper level ridge over the western Gulf will stretch northeastward into the Mid Atlantic region. While under high pressure, the area should not see any rain, but could see patchy to areas of fog in the morning hours.
105 PM EDT Sun Oct 10 2021 A warm front is bringing showers and a few thunderstorms this morning, but the remainder of the day should be dry.
1217 PM CDT Sun Oct 10 2021 Light northwesterly winds are being observed across the area this morning behind a weak cold front that crossed the local area overnight. expect an upper level low to lift east northeast out of the desert southwest and into the southern/central plains.
Upper low off the se coast will drift to near the southern tip of the Fl peninsula as a deep ridge builds over the se.
This low will track northeastward away from the area, with the rain showers coming to an end by this evening, and the cloud cover clearing from west to east tonight. Weak high pressure will keep conditions dry Monday and Monday night. Highs on Monday will be in the lower to mid 60s, with lows Monday night again in the upper 30s to lower 40s.
A cold front will approach the terminals late tonight along with a line of SHRAs and TSRAs.
338 PM EDT Sun Oct 10 2021 High pressure over the northwest Atlantic will keep easterly onshore flow going through tonight.
A cold front was also making it's way southward through the Panhandle, while a dryline over the South Plains and Permian Basin will continue mixing eastward through west central Texas this evening. For the rest of the night the cooler and drier air will make it's presence known with lows in the low 50s expected under clear skies. Tomorrow, the system is expected to move out of our area, followed by cool high pressure.
A cold front associated with a cold trough is currently cutting western Montana in half as it moves through the region.
232 PM EDT Sun Oct 10 2021 Synopsis/Discussion/Aviation/Marine - Severe Weather Threat Late Monday as Upper Trough moves northeast out of the Southern Plains- Scattered showers and an isolated thunderstorm expected tonight as warm advection/isentropic ascent continues across central and northern Lower Michigan.
A potent and cold system will move into the area beginning this morning as a cold front enters eastern Oregon. Increasing clouds and lowering ceilings as a cold front moves over the region today.
On Monday night, the closed low will open up and move away from the region.
The low-level jet will also increase through the afternoon, and stronger winds from this feature will be mixed down to the surface during this time. A cold front was taking shape across the northern Texas Panhandle. As the Pacific cold front moves in behind the dryline, we will see temperatures drop, with lows in the 50s by Monday morning.
The second wave would be with the cold front as it moves through during the afternoon. The high shear should be enough to overcome the low CAPE, but what happens in the morning with the first wave is key to how strong storms will be in the afternoon and across the entire area. Tomorrow night lows will be much cooler with temps falling into the 50s by late Mon night.
Broad, splitting upper trof across Colorado, with main upper low over the Dakotas and the southern branch of energy dropping into New Mexico today and then into Kansas tonight. For this afternoon, high pressure ridge aloft building into Colorado through tonight with a drying and more subsident airmass. Temperatures will be cooler today behind the trof as 700mb temperatures drop to around +2c, resulting in high temperatures in the 60s across the plains. Upper ridging is pushing east on Monday with southwesterly flow aloft ahead of an approaching upper trough/closed low.
ridge will amplify on Monday in response to deepeing low pres ovr the Plains.
Currently, upper level low moving slowly off to the east, now over northwest Minnesota. Clearing continues from west to east as a S/WV mid level ridge builds across the western Dakotas. S/WV ridge continues to build east across the Dakotas tonight with the upper low ejecting northeast into Canada. Clouds will increase across the west as southwest flow aloft develops ahead of a long wave trough developing across the western CONUS.
258 PM EDT Sun Oct 10 2021 A weak low pressure system will track up the east coast tonight and Monday.
322 PM EDT Sun Oct 10 2021 The mid to upper level cyclone to the east of Florida is composed of two nodes, one east of Jacksonville and the other to the southeast of South Florida. The amplifying upper level ridge axis over the Eastern United States has started to pinch off the northern flank of the soon to be cutoff cyclone. Temperatures across the island chain reached 90 in many locations with dewpoints in the lower to mid 70s. The upper level low will remain nearby for the next several days, although its influence will be limited as it lumbers to our east and southeast.
The forecast remains on track as high pressure continues to build into the region. Tonight, mainly clear skies and temperatures in the low to mid 60s are forecast. There could be some patchy ground fog in SW GA but confidence is on the lower side for that.