Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
124 PM EDT TUE JUL 5 2016 Aviation An area of high pressure will track eastward across Michigan today providing the region with dry weather. The models are in relative agreement in tracking a broad mid level ridge through Lower Michigan today and most of tonight. A weak mid level wave is shown to migrate through the ridge late tonight.
554 PM CDT TUE JUL 5 2016 Low pressure was located over southeast South Dakota at 18z with a warm front extending from the low into central Minnesota and a trough stretching into central Nebraska.
142 PM EDT TUE JUL 5 2016 High pressure will provide dry weather through Wednesday.
326 PM EDT TUE JUL 5 2016 High pressure over the lower lakes will weaken and slide east tomorrow.
Currently, convection has initiated in west central Minnesota near a surface warm front and low pressure system. This warm front extends east to southeast across Minnesota down along the Mississippi River in western Wisconsin.
An upper level trough stretched across much of the West Coast will result in temperatures below seasonal averages through the upcoming weekend. A persistent mid/upper level trough is forecast to remain in place over much of the West Coast through the remainder of the week.
336 PM CDT TUE JUL 5 2016 Very high heat indices are the main focus this afternoon as the thermal ridge continues to expand over the forecast area and nearly 80 degree dewpoints pool at the surface. Extremely high CAPE is also present throughout the area with steep lapse rates above the thermal ridge and the 18z RAP analysis indicating >5000-6000 J/kg MUCAPE across the region; however, both model soundings and recent ACARS soundings indicate enough of a capping inversion around 850 hPa to prevent warm-sector initiation in our forecast area.
Convergence along a warm front stretching from this low lead to the development of severe thunderstorms across western Minnesota. Weak H7 and H5 ridging has kept CI at bay today.
A warmer. High pressure is expected to settle across the southeastern states. allowing a warmer and more humid southerly flow of air to preside across the Ohio Valley. Surface analysis early this afternoon shows a broad ridge of high pressure in place across the eastern United States. Low Pressure was found across the upper midwest. Warmer and more humid southerly flow was developing across the Indiana. 12Z 850mb analysis shows a thermal ridge in place ahead of low pressure over Minnesota and Lake Superior. best chances for rain and storms will be on Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday night as a warm front approaches from the west.
In addition, have expanded slgt chc pops to encompass more of our ern and sern zones for this evening due to a highly unstable atmosphere plus this area is in close proximity to a sfc trof of low pressure, which may act to focus low level convergence and help initiate isold showers and tstorms.
Temperatures at mid afternoon only in the lower to mid 80s which is almost 10 degrees lower than the hot 4th of July mainly due to cloud cover or showers and storms.
Later shifts will need to keep an eye on this for a possible warmer trend.
1136 AM MDT TUE JUL 5 2016 A weak trough passing over northeast UT and northwest CO will keep isolate rain showers going until about 8 am then these will push east of the area. The flat ridge that has been over the area and southwest U. Our region will remain in the southwesterly flow aloft between high pressure over Texas and a persistent long wave trough over the Pacific Northwest.
This July Summer pattern is entrenched over the area with high pressure dominating. The position of the ridge overhead is keeping the south and southeast low level flow which is not allowing for any significant influx of drier air.
Outside of convection, temperatures have warmed into the lower to mid 90s, with heat indices in the 100- 105 range, and isolated occurrences around 109 in the typical spots near the immediate coast. Enough lift along the trough axis may be available to aid in a few additional showers and thunderstorms over the interior tonight, and will keep a slight chance in the forecast generally north of the highway 84 corridor. Another hot and humid day can otherwise be expected with high temperatures in the lower to mid 90s.
Farther to the south, scattered showers and thunderstorms are developing in the moist and unstable environment across our forecast area on the southern fringe of the trough axis.
Dry conditions will persist, with slightly cooler temperatures on Wednesday.
A couple of weak disturbances were translating east acrs the srn plains and lower MS valley along the nrn edge of a ridge aloft per latest WV imagery. Another hot aftn with temperatures generally in the lower 90s, and heat index values between 100-106.
Deep layer ridging will remain across the Florida peninsula with rather light winds allowing the sea breezes to develop during the afternoon. The combination of warm temperatures with the high humidity will cause heat indices to climb to around 105, but a few spots could reach 110. A light wind flow is expected through much of the period as ridging aloft remains centered over the state. There will remain enough moisture in place for isolated to low-end scattered storm coverage through the period, but mid-level ridge will suppress overall convective coverage compared to normal for early/mid July.
Cooler weather for this week. Upper level trough continues to be in place providing onshore flow and helping moderate temperatures through northern California. High temperatures will be slightly below normal for this time of year, which tend to be in the low to mid 90s for the Valley.
Temperatures were generally in the 80s, with the highest temps at 3 pm being 88 degrees. Two Harbors had the highest heat index value in our CWA at 94 degrees. First low, the upper level pattern will become more amplified with the British Columbia trof digging into the pacific northwest then scoot along the international border through the rest of the week.
345 PM CDT TUE JUL 5 2016 Main surface trof lies along the southeastern fringe of the FA and will provide the focus for deep convection into portions of west central through central MN into the early evening. The trailing H7 trof is generating some elevated showers yet across portions of northwest MN but expect those will steadily diminish over the next few hours.
H850 trough lags even further north so elevated instability may be available a bit further north of the surface boundary.
245 PM CDT TUE JUL 5 2016 Low pressure was located over southeast South Dakota at 18z with a warm front extending from the low into central Minnesota and a trough stretching into central Nebraska.
135 PM EDT TUE JUL 5 2016 High pressure over the area today will weaken by wednesday.
225 PM EDT TUE JUL 5 2016 Hydro An area of high pressure will track eastward across Michigan today providing the region with dry weather. The models are in relative agreement in tracking a broad mid level ridge through Lower Michigan today and most of tonight. A weak mid level wave is shown to migrate through the ridge late tonight.
300 PM CDT TUE JUL 5 2016 Upper level ridging over the region, combined with southerly surface flow and residual moisture from the rains that occurred over the holiday weekend were combining to create dangerous heat today.
Will continue lows for tonight close to what we previously had; however, it may be slightly cooler across the Big Country, if additional convection moves across that area this evening or overnight. Afternoon highs tomorrow should be slightly cooler, especially across the Big Country.
The lift from the trough is expected to be somewhat weak in nature.
Cool upper level low pressure over British Columbia will dip southward into Washington possibly bringing sprinkles across the north this evening before kicking eastward across the Northern Rockies Wednesday.
With this high uncertainty, no major changes have been made to the previous forecast. At the surface, weak ridging in place over the mid Mississippi Valley.
609 PM EDT TUE JUL 5 2016 High pressure over the lower lakes will weaken and slide east tomorrow.
The cold front is slowly but steadily sliding south across the plains here at lunch time, with upwards of 1000 J/kg of sbcape ahead of the front. Otherwise, this weak cold front will continue sliding south, hanging up along the Laramie Range today. Flow backs a tad on Wednesday as trough digs into the Pacific Northwest.
Through 2 PDT temperatures across the San Joaquin Valley were running upwards of 5 degrees cooler than they were at this time 24 hours ago.
137 PM PDT TUE JUL 5 2016 A weak trough over the West Coast will keep temperatures near to slightly below normal through the week.
Expect this trough to be the focus of shower and thunderstorm development through the late afternoon and evening hours as the CAP continues to erode and an upper level disturbance approaches from the west.
Temperatures were a bit cooler than the previous forecast this morning, so adjusted hourlies down a bit but kept the high temperatures about the same this afternoon.
Large-scale analysis shows a steady ridge at several levels of the atmosphere from the western North Atlantic to the eastern Gulf of Mexico. All weather elements will be near climatological values for most of the next seven days as an Atlantic ridge holds to the north of the Florida Keys.
256 PM MDT TUE JUL 5 2016 Current surface analysis shows low pressure over southeast SD, with cool front trailing west-southwest across south central SD to central WY. Low pressure will slowly track east along the front from east-central WY in the morning to southwest SD by early afternoon and then across southwest and south central SD during the afternoon and evening.
350 PM CDT TUE JUL 5 2016 A low pressure system and associated frontal boundary is currently over the eastern CWA.
A trough moving through the Pacific Northwest will bring elevated southwest winds to the area Wednesday. The active pattern continues to our north as an unseasonably cold low pressure system moves through the northwestern U.
A ridge axis will cross the area late this evening opening the door for renewed southwesterly flow and slight uptick in moisture advection.
At the surface, a cold front extends from central MN through southern SD with some lee troughing over eastern CO. Will stay with the thinking that locations generally along and north of I-70 will have the highest storm chances tonight along with the northeast fringes of our forecast area. Even though confidence is high that dewpoints will mix out more than today, warmer temps should make up for this, still resulting in heat indices at or greater than 105. This will push a cold front down into the central Plains and will extend generally along the KS Turnpike by 00z Fri. ECMWF and GFS continue to agree on a trough digging over the NW CONUS resulting in ridging over the Rockies into the Plains.
336 PM EDT Thu Apr 13 2017 High pressure will give the region dry weather through Friday night along with mostly sunny skies for Friday.
343 PM EDT Thu Apr 13 2017 A warm front will lift north across the area Friday night in advance of low pressure tracking through the upper midwest.
312 PM CDT Thu Apr 13 2017 Current H500 closed low over the Oklahoma panhandle will gradually lift NNE under anti-cyclonic flow, reaching NE Nebraska by 12Z Friday. At the surface, a shallow quasi-stationary inverted trough bisected Kansas from SW to NE. This boundary should weaken overnight as the upper low pulls north and WAA overruns the boundary. Low-level moisture/stratus will likely linger into the morning, but given the increasing pressure gradient/southerly winds tomorrow, expect the low clouds to mix out by early afternoon.
208 PM EDT Thu Apr 13 2017 High pressure centered over the Lower Great Lakes will bring dry and cooler conditions that will last through Friday. High pressure at the surface is keeping us dry while convective debris from old upstream activity has resulted in a shield of mid/high clouds streaming overhead. Variably cloudy skies will continue into the overnight but we will stay dry as high pressure slips off to the east. Low temps tonight will range from around freezing over the NE zones to the lower 40s along the MD border.
Sent another update mid-day to try and fine tune the timing of the wind shift and cold front later tonight. If we continue to see support for winds across Fort Peck Lack quickly returning to advisory criteria with the cold front tonight, it would make sense to simply extended the time of the Lake Wind Advisory even though there may be lighter winds just ahead of the cold front for 3 or 4 hours late tonight. BMickelson Previous short term discussion: A closed upper low centered off Vancouver Island will be the main driver during this period. Cold front moves east tonight with the beginnings of cyclogenesis in southern Alberta.
At the same time, the 12Z DTX sounding indicates dry air in the low levels but with less depth and lower magnitude through which the added moisture aloft is able to overcome. There will be some residual clouds lingering through the day which will limit the afternoon temperature rebound, although max temps in the lower to mid 50s remain reachable by late afternoon. More clouds today should result in slightly cooler temps compared to yesterday, with 60+ degrees returning on Friday. 5 inches) will slide into the Western Great Lakes Friday Night, there does look to be sufficient moisture transport and instability (showalter slightly negative) extending into southern Lower Michigan to generate showers and possible thunderstorms as warm front lifts north.
55 High pressure remains over the area this morning. Today Through Friday Night An upper ridge is over the Plains this morning with an upper low pressure system near the Pacific Northwest. This low will not move much today or tonight as it will be blocked by the upper ridge to the east. An upper low will develop over the high Plains this afternoon and move northeast through the Plains through Friday. High pressure will remain over the southeast U. A cold front in Nebraska and Iowa this morning will become stationary. then move north on Friday as a warm front.
250 PM CDT Thu Apr 13 2017 An upper low pressure system in southwest Kansas will lift north across Kansas and Nebraska overnight and early Friday morning. A late afternoon/early evening storm cannot be ruled out but the better chances for precipitation return Friday night as convection which develops along the high plains rolls eastward with an advancing cold frontal boundary.
243 PM EDT Thu Apr 13 2017 Surface/mid level ridge continue to promote a very dry day across eastern Kentucky. The ridge axis will slowly shift east over the next 24 hours with south flow developing, especially on Friday. This will set up another night of ridge/valley splits with valleys falling to around 40 and ridges in the low 50s. With slightly increased southerly flow on Friday, we may seem temperatures climb a tad above todays values reaching the low to mid 80s.
/61/ Temperatures will be much warmer than normal the next few days.
So raised max temps today by several degrees which now push the lower 70s just south of I-80, to the upper 70s along/south of highway 34. Through this morning, the highest rain coverage will be along and north of I-80, with only scattered to isolated showers and storms to the south. The position of the warm front will be key in this afternoon's high temperature forecast.
An upper trough will keep the weather cool with showers at times through the end of the week.
Issued by National Weather Service LA CROSSE WI 211 PM CDT Thu Apr 13 2017 Satellite showing abundant cloud cover over the region under easterly flow and inverted conditions in the low-levels.
235 PM MDT Thu Apr 13 2017 Upper ridge is slowly pushing across the central states, while an upper trough moves into the Pac NW. Southerly winds will remain breezy tonight ahead of the low-level trough. Upper trough will begin moving over the northern Rockies Friday, and low-level trough will cross the Dakotas with a cold front. Highs will range from the lower 60s across northeastern WY and the Black Hills to the mid 70s across south central SD.
328 PM EDT Thu Apr 13 2017 Surface/mid level ridge continue to promote a very dry day across eastern Kentucky. The ridge axis will slowly shift east over the next 24 hours with south flow developing, especially on Friday. This will set up another night of ridge/valley splits with valleys falling to around 40 and ridges in the low 50s. With slightly increased southerly flow on Friday, we may seem temperatures climb a tad above todays values reaching the low to mid 80s.
Large and strong upper-level low pressure system slowly coming onshore over Washington and Oregon is now directing an almost constant fetch of moisture northward through the Columbia River basin and the lower Snake River basin.
Southerly winds have allowed temperatures to warm into the lower to mid 80s this afternoon.
Winds have turned out of the southwest with the warm front to the north of the area which should help high temperatures climb into the upper 70s to around 80 degrees. There is still a chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms over far northeast Missouri and west central Illinois near the warm front where atmosphere will become weakly unstable. Temperatures today will be a bit warmer than yesterday and it will feel more like May than April.
Low to mid level moisture will remain high across portions of northeast Mexico into southwest Texas tonight into Friday even as the 500mb trough across northwest Texas moves eastward.
418 PM CDT Thu Apr 13 2017 Sunny skies today has allowed temperatures to climb into the lower 80s most locations as high pressure at sfc continues to dominate the weather pattern.
Above average warmth is forecast for the weekend, with increasing rain chances due to expected warm and cold fronts. Some very weak isentropic lift can be seen on model progs on Friday, but again, deep moisture and stronger support for precipitation are lacking on the front side of the ridge. A few showers may accompany the warm frontal passage during the night.
603 PM EDT Thu Apr 13 2017 High pressure should maintain dry weather through Friday. Rain chances return with weekend low pressure. A weak upper level trough is progged to exit this evening, though surface ridging should maintain dry weather. A few showers may accompany the warm frontal passage during the night.
241 PM EDT Thu Apr 13 2017 A weak cold front will drop slowly south across the area through this evening producing isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms.
Overall progression of the system has been slower than previously progged--not surprising given the cutoff nature of the upper level low. An upper low was noted off the Pacific northwest coast. At the surface, an inverted trough of low pressure extended from southeast CO into the mid MO river valley. The interesting thing is models don't really generate any precip until the core of the upper low lifts over late tonight in spite of a conditionally unstable airmass with little or no inhibition progged by the models. Upper trough axis shifts east towards east Friday morning, setting up a decent band of showers and thunderstorms across east central Kansas.
Current water vapor imagery and RAP upper air analysis indicates a ridge across the Northern Gulf trying to build into the area, further to the north, an upper level trough is passing through the Ohio River Valley. The upper level ridge axis will be overhead on Friday with the low level high moving to the east. A weak trough will rotate around the broader ridge and there could be a few isolated showers and storms with the best chance for precipitation across the higher elevations. Went a little higher with temperatures on Friday due to the ridge axis overhead. Expect most valley locations will top out just below record values in the low to mid 80s.
Highs this afternoon will warm into the low and middle 80s. /19/ Prior discussion below: Through tonight: We had a few showers popping up yesterday afternoon but today anticipate the northern extent of the subtropical ridge building up into the Lower Mississippi Valley to largely suppress diurnal convective development. Deep mixing by afternoon should get 925 MB temperatures to around 20 degrees which should yield highs today generally a few degrees warmer than was the case yesterday in most spots. Tonight, a few high clouds will continue to stream in from the west but surface winds should again go very light with the lower atmosphere certainly not overly moist.
350 PM CDT Thu Apr 13 2017 Model guidance and MOS values support low temperatures for this evening dropping into the low 60s for our inland counties, and upper 60s along the coast. Forecast soundings should plenty of dry air aloft, though there is still some slight saturation in the lower levels.
411 PM CDT Thu Apr 13 2017 High pressure over the Northland this afternoon will begin to yield overnight. Mid- and high-level clouds will advance northward into the area from convection and a trough of low pressure located over the Central Plains as of this afternoon. Overnight lows trended a bit warmer than earlier forecasts, but may be too ambitious for portions of the Arrowhead. Expecting readings in the low 30s far northeast and around 40 in our western and southwestern zones, with middle 30s in northwest Wisconsin.
The 500 mb upper ridge will shift east into AL north through IN on Friday. Shallow convection was forming atop the lower Appalachians today, and we may see a bit more on Friday attempting to develop along Sand and Lookout Mountains. A near persistence forecast continues temperaturewise, with highs in the lower 80s expected.
349 PM EDT Thu Apr 13 2017 High pressure will spread across the Carolinas and Georgia through this weekend.
117 PM EDT Thu Apr 13 2017 High pressure across the Great Lakes region this morning will build across the Middle Atlantic region today and tonight before shifting offshore later Friday.
320 PM EDT Thu Apr 13 2017 A low pressure system is stationary north of Hispaniola, meanwhile, weak undulations in the easterlies are analyzed northwest of the Yucatan Channel and north of western Cuba. These perturbations have extended through various depths in the lower troposphere, and at times have stalled near the favored baroclinicity of the Straits of Florida. Highs along the island chain range from the lower to mid 80s with dewpoints in the mid 60s. Scattered showers persist southwest of the lower Keys. Mean layer, mid-upper level ridging currently near the Mississippi River Valley will work east tonight through Friday night.
A slow moving cold front has been developing over the Northern Rockies today which has resulted in widespread light to moderate precipitation across much of the area. This will include slushy accumulations on Lost Trail and Lolo Passes as well as the higher terrain passes/roads in Lemhi County (Gilmore Summit, Lone Pine, Bannock Pass, etc.
137 PM EDT Thu Apr 13 2017 A warm front will develop into the area today and then linger through Friday before lifting north Friday night.
/Issued 402 AM EDT Thu Apr 13 2017/ Weakening frontal boundary over the state will give way to high pressure building into the region through the short term. The frontal boundary gets pushed off the GA/SC coast late tonight as high pressure centered over the New England/Mid Atlantic states build south down the eastern seaboard. There is some mid to upper level moisture that gets trapped under the high pressure ridge so still expecting some partly to mostly cloudy skies.