Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
This mornings sounding also shows the low levels are saturated and with an inversion in place, the fog and stratus over the area likely not going anywhere soon. There may be some improvement to mvfr later today, as drier air moves in behind low pressure traversing eastern Arkansas. Low pressure forming along the front is located in the vicinity of west central Louisiana. The low will give the frontal boundary a push out of the region later today, but not before additional showers affect central and eastern Arkansas. Upper trough moving out of the big bend area of Texas should send any deep layer moisture out of the region tonight and Friday. Friday should be dry and warm, with highs in the lower 60s to lower 70s across the area.
Although it will be dry most of the time for the next few days, some light rain or freezing rain cannot be ruled out for Friday night.
upper level trough from the Southern Plains into Central Texas will open and move off to the east. The upper low and short wave will continue northeast today while the front slowly pushes east.
At this point the warm front has cleared our CWA. Middle TN has seen temperature rise from the low 50s into the 60s with the warm front passage despite widespread rain. A negatively tilted trough has spread ample lift into the area leading to widespread moderate rain with scattered downpours. As the trough axis swings north of the area rain will diminish southwest to northeast this evening and overnight. Weak ridging will build into the area during the daylight hours on Friday.
In addition, high winds are expected to spread to the higher elevations of the Davis Mountains where gusts up to 60 MPH is possible. A Wind Advisory is also in affect across the Van Horn/Hwy 54 Corridor region for today however a few locations in the higher elevations of the Delaware Mountains could reach high wind for a brief period. Friday will be another windy day as an upper trough quickly passes to the north.
335 PM CST Thu Jan 19 2017 A longwave trough over the western U.
1158 AM CST Thu Jan 19 2017 Low clouds working slowly north at 08Z from western and central Kansas into central Nebraska in advance of 850mb trough over western Nebraska. 500 mb closed low was also in the area centered over south central Nebraska. Cloudy skies are expected to gradually overspread the forecast area today as upper low moves toward northeast Kansas with short range models showing some slight deepening during this time. Temperatures remain above freezing across the area early this morning and are expected to climb into the 40s by afternoon.
However, precipitation has mainly been confined to the higher terrain of SW MT.
This will come as the upper trough will track northeast of the area and away from the ArkLaMiss. Partly sunny skies will help temperatures warm into the lower to mid 70s.
An upper level low over the nation's midsection will slowly lift northeast and weaken over the 36 to 48 hours.
Jamba Upper trough will move inland from the Pacific today as the base of the trough will dig into California and Arizona. Temperatures aloft will cool from +9C at 850 mb this morning to +4C this evening as a weak cold front moves through the area today. Moisture at this point looks to limited to the southern zones of the forecast area with a chance of mixed precip as lows will be near freezing. Friday highs will be somewhat cooler with cloud cover and cooler air aloft (850 mb temp +2).
Main story this morning continues to be the dense fog, which has now moved into the highway 2 corridor east of Grand Forks. Areas that hold the fog/stratus longer will stay cooler today. Models continue to show the potential for some light drizzle or freezing drizzle, so did keep that mention too.
1245 PM EST Thu Jan 19 2017 A high pressure ridge in the forecast area will weaken today ahead of an approaching warm front.
It will remain dry today, however low pressure will approach later tonight with rain that will likely linger into Friday.
However, high pressure will briefly visit to dry things out during the day, even decreasing clouds especially in Northeast Pennsylvania.
Upper low over the Central Plains will be the primary weather-maker across central Illinois over the next 24 hours. Given copious deep-layer moisture and strong forcing from approaching upper low, showers will become numerous across the area this afternoon. Several models are producing light QPF across the area Friday night as a warm front lifts through central Illinois.
445 PM EST Thu Jan 19 2017 High pressure will build over the area tonight and remain across the region on Friday.
Kept high pops going based on enough forcing with a trough that will lift through the forecast area tonight into Friday. Went with mention of drizzle and fog through the remainder of the day tomorrow based on model soundings saturated in the lowest 4-5 kft along with some weak lift.
Snow will begin over the higher elevations by late morning early afternoon.
Added areas of fog/freezing fog to the Yakima/Kittitas Valleys for this morning and into tonight. An upper level trough along the West Coast will weaken and move inland today and fall apart by tonight as another trough in the eastern Pacific arrives offshore to take its place. The arriving trough will spread more precipitation across the region Friday and Friday night. This will mainly be a rain and snow event but will need to watch closely as the cold air pool along the east slopes of the Cascades and over the Lower Columbia Basin will complicate the forecast. There could be a slight potential for some freezing rain along the Foothills of the Blue Mountains and the eastern portion of the Lower Columbia Basin by Friday night.
Wet bulb zero and freezing levels pretty high for mid January with a WBZ of 10. 7 kft and a freezing level of 12.
255 PM EST Thu Jan 19 2017 An upper level trough will pivot northeast across western North Carolina into Virginia tonight and Friday.
102 PM EST Thu Jan 19 2017 High pressure will move east today, while low pressure approaches from the southwest. Expect widespread rain showers this evening through tonight when the low is forecast to travel to northern Ohio.
/issued 552 AM CST Thu Jan 19 2017/ LIFR/VLIFR cigs with reduced vsbys in FG will persist this morning across the region, as a warm front will continue to gradually lift N across NE LA/SE AR/N MS through the afternoon. Drier air aloft mixing E with the passage of the associated upper level low this afternoon should result in the low cigs eventually mixing out over at least the Wrn sections of E TX by mid to late afternoon, but did maintain MVFR cigs for the GGG/LFK/SHV terminals with IFR cigs expected to prevail farther E across much of N LA/SW AR. Conditions will improve on Friday with temperatures rebounding to U60s to L70s South of I-20; Southerly winds will help usher in humid air from the Gulf of Mexico ahead of the short wave trough in the SW United States.
A weakening cold front will continue to shift across western Montana this evening with cooler air returning to north central Idaho and western Montana overnight.
1126 AM CST Thu Jan 19 2017 Southerly flow and increasing moisture has advected into the local area behind an effective warm front early Thursday morning. Aloft, southwest flow is limiting moisture fields in the mid and upper levels as a broad upper-level trough continues to push through the Central Plains today. With that said, temperatures will still be near 10 degrees above normal, ranging from the upper 40s to lower 50s south of the Missouri River, down to the lower 40s across northeastern Missouri.
With two weak upper waves transitioning over eastern SD/western MN, precipitation type still remains difficult to resolve, no less complicated by temperatures above freezing but ground temperatures in the mid/upper 20s.
/Today through Tonight/ 06Z Water vapor imagery picking up on well-defined upper level low parked over the plains. This low will be main driver for continued fog/haze potential and light rain potential across the DMX CWA. With IA northeast of our upper low, warm air advection clearly present. It appears to be very plausible for fog to fill in once again tonight as the upper low tracks across western Iowa.
1156 AM EST Thu Jan 19 2017 A short break from precipitation today as high pressure slides across the area. Latest models are coming into good agreement on slowing down the onset of rain tonight, as the upper level low over the Central US will weaken and spin further to the north by Friday morning. By Friday afternoon, the main moisture stream will have moved to the northeast, with the trough axis following closely on its heels.
334 PM CST Thu Jan 19 2017 Rain from earlier this morning had cleared all but the eastern offshore waters as of 3 PM CST, with dry conditions expected to persist through the remainder of the evening and overnight hours as subsidence in the wake of a closed low lifting across the Central Plains overspreads the region. A few breaks in the clouds this afternoon had allowed for temperatures to climb into the low 70s along the Upper Texas coast this afternoon, with most locations reporting temperatures in the lower to mid 60s.
The back edge of the rain will continue shifting East as an upper level trough of low pressure axis moves across the area.
/Issued 319 AM CST Thu Jan 19 2017/ Weak cold front associated with a closed low continues to work its way into the Panhandles. This will exit quick enough with ridging behind it to allow for a warmer temperatures this afternoon.
Widespread dense fog will continue along ridge top locations of western Wisconsin as well as all of southeast Minnesota, northeast Iowa, and north central Wisconsin. Temperatures are below freezing in most areas so untreated roads may have some icy stretches due to the fog depositing a thin glaze of ice. Will then be watching a mid-level trough/pv- advection move toward/into the area this afternoon through tonight. Otherwise, highs today will remain mild in the upper 30s to lower 40s with lows tonight in the lower /middle 30s. will see that mid-level trough continue to lift northward through central and northern WI with lingering rain chances. Rain chances continue for Friday night as yet another mid-level trough/lobe of pv-advection rotates northward into the area.
A narrow band of IFR/LIFR fog is wrapping around the low into the eastern half of the OK Panhandle, with the edge of the dense fog just east of Guymon and northeast of Spearman. /Issued 319 AM CST Thu Jan 19 2017/ Weak cold front associated with a closed low continues to work its way into the Panhandles. This will exit quick enough with ridging behind it to allow for a warmer temperatures this afternoon.
As this low continues to move NE across middle Tennessee tonight, the preceding warm front will lift northward across our area. Gradually improving conditions through the second half of Friday as the first system lifts to the NE and some relatively drier air and ridging aloft pushes into the region.
1247 PM EST Thu Jan 19 2017 A short break from precipitation today as high pressure slides across the area. Latest models are coming into good agreement on slowing down the onset of rain tonight, as the upper level low over the Central US will weaken and spin further to the north by Friday morning. By Friday afternoon, the main moisture stream will have moved to the northeast, with the trough axis following closely on its heels.
Placed areas of fog/freezing fog back in the grids for the western zones for the next 1-2 hours. A weak closed upper low was slowly moving moving east over the central High Plains early this morning. With a fairly dry atmosphere over the central Plains, only some scattered mid and high level cloudiness was being generated by this upper low. At the surface, however, a low pressure trough was situated along the Kansas/Colorado border. Light winds were present in the base of the trough while farther east, southerly winds continue to push increasing low level moisture into central and parts of western Kansas.
This flow was a result of an upper low now positioned over the central High Plains. The upper low will lift northeast across the region tonight and begin to fill. Temperatures will be relatively mild despite the cloud cover and temperatures will remain above freezing.
Although some partial clearing is working its way into the region from the southeast, think that most locations will remain partly to mostly cloudy before next round of clouds moves in from the southwest as low pressure approaches.
An upper trough currently centered over the Sierra Nevada will continue to translate eastward, its core tracking across southern Utah and northern Arizona tonight. Meanwhile, with the main trough focusing on the southern portions of the forecast area, expect precipitation to increase there for the afternoon and evening hours, with snow above around 5000-5500ft.
Looks like another mild day across the CWA today as the area resides under a narrow upper ridge with skies mostly clear. Clouds will increase across the CWA tonight as an upper trough moves from the sw CONUS eastward across the central Rockys late tonight and Friday. This will bring some snow showers to mainly the higher mtns mainly late tonight into early Friday with about 2-5 inches accumulation.
Upper level trough from the Central Plains down into East Texas is pivoting off to the northeast and this is bringing a dry slot into the forecast area according to latest water vapor imagery, which is bringing an end to the shower activity from west to east. Rua Upper level trough will continue to move off to the northeast with a drier and more stable air mass moving into the forecast area tonight, which will end shower activity.
Most of the precip will be exiting to the northeast with the warm front around dawn on Friday, with just some spotty very light showers possibly lingering into the day due to persistent low level moisture.
Gap winds continue to gust to around 50 mph in Livingston DOT station, as Pacific trof moving inland seems to have slowed a bit. Winds should taper off later this afternoon/evening as trof proceeds eastward. however chances for freezing rain appears less likely. resulting in precip forming higher in atmosphere and falling through a warmer layer of air to reach the surface. should limit freezing rain potential. wet/slushie roads refreezing overnight and remaining slick for the Friday morning commute is of greatest concern at this time.
Latest surface observations indicate warm front has moved north to near a Savannah to Huntsville line this morning. Radar imagery shows scattered showers over northeast zones, with a more extensive area of rain and a few embedded thunderstorms over the west half nearer the warm front. As warm front continues northward to near the KY border today, anticipate widespread showers and storms to continue overspreading the entire area with 100 pops warranted. Forecast has all of this generally covered, but did raise high temps throughout the cwa as some areas in the southwest south of the warm front are already near forecast highs.
318 PM CST Thu Jan 19 2017 Widespread showers were in progress across the greater Tennessee Valley this afternoon, as a warm front returns northward. Despite the front/clouds/showers, very warm temperatures for mid January continued with mid/upper 50s over southern middle Tennessee and far NE Alabama to the lower 60s near and south of the Tennessee River. An upper low across eastern Kansas has produced a diffluent flow across much of the southeastern states, including the Tennessee Valley.
1007 AM MST Thu Jan 19 2017 Water vapor shows upper ridge over the nrn plains, with trof moving onto the west coast. Another mild day in store with upper ridge in place, although thermal profiles suggest temps will not be quite as warm as yesterday in most places. On Friday, a lead short wave ahead of the west coast trof will push a weak a cdfnt through the cwfa, which will drop temps a few more degrees and closer to seasonal averages. An upper trough will deepen across the West Coast into the weekend, bringing a gradual cooling trend and chances for precipitation.
Upper-level trough axis is slow to move eastward hence why the clouds hung on longer today than expected and kept temperatures a bit cooler too. With the loss of the daytime heating and trough axis pivoting farther east-northeast we should start off mostly clear tonight across much of the region. Clouds may also hold onto the region a bit longer so we keep temperatures cooler across the east while over the west/Rio Grande Plains and Brush Country we could see temperatures soar to near 80 degrees.
Latest surface observations indicate warm front has moved north to near a Savannah to Huntsville line this morning. Radar imagery shows scattered showers over northeast zones, with a more extensive area of rain and a few embedded thunderstorms over the west half nearer the warm front. As warm front continues northward to near the KY border today, anticipate widespread showers and storms to continue overspreading the entire area with 100 pops warranted. Forecast has all of this generally covered, but did raise high temps throughout the cwa as some areas in the southwest south of the warm front are already near forecast highs. Improvement back to MVFR likely at CKV/BNA by 06Z as warm front lifts northward, while CSV will become LIFR/VLIFR.
Convection will quickly surge nwd back into the area Fri eve with negative tilted trough bringing colder mid lvl temps.
230 PM EST Thu Jan 19 2017 An upper level trough over the Tennessee Valley this afternoon will pivot northeast over western North Carolina into Virginia tonight and Friday.
Mid level ridge continues to slide farther west into the Four- Corners Region allowing for weakening aloft along the coast with mid level energy sliding in from the east. As the low level cap weakens through Sunday, isolated to scattered showers will be possible, starting first over the gulf waters in the morning, then moving inland with heating.
As an inverted trough moves across the region, it will provide breezy winds 10-15 mph with gusts up to 20 mph and a few showers and thunderstorms this afternoon.
Weak flow aloft is expected late this weekend as an upper level high becomes centered over the Central Rockies on Sunday.
Convection should not be more than iso at best in nature with a broad upper level ridging pattern in place across our region though.
What little inversion exists for Sunday will quickly erode thanks to southwest low level flow ahead of a cold front.
Issued by National Weather Service Columbia SC 1041 AM EDT SAT JUN 18 2016 High pressure will build into the region from the north this weekend, resulting in unseasonably cool and dry conditions.
Ridging at the surface to our north and northeast, and aloft to our west and northwest, will be our dominant features during the period. Meanwhile, the upper ridge will bring benign conditions with warm air aloft, resulting in surface convective currents being capped.
/issued 454 AM CDT SAT JUN 18 2016/ The latest WV imagery and UA analysis shows the upper high migrating a little further west, now cntrd over swrn NM. Although rain chcs will be increasing acrs the area today, showers and storms will remain limited over wrn portions of the area as the influence of the upper ridge will not quite be done. Aftn highs acrs wrn LA and se TX are expected to again reach the lower to middle 90s. The benefit of this is that max temps Sunday will be a little cooler than the past few days, with clouds/showers keeping highs mostly in the upper 80s.
937 AM EDT SAT JUN 18 2016 High pressure at the surface and aloft will build in for the weekend, bringing in dry conditions with a warming trend.
The upper level ridge to south of Colorado will build northward this weekend. With the upper level ridge rebuilding over the region, mid level temperatures will warm today and is expected to cap convection today and tonight. A strong upper level ridge of high pressure will dominate Colorado through the period. On Sunday, the upper high will be centered over southern Colorado and northern New Mexico, which will result in hot and dry weather.
With 30-40 knots aloft, will make it difficult for the atmosphere to cool and sided towards warmer guidance values. This will set the stage for another warm and muggy day across the region as 850 hpa temps surge to near 25 C ahead of an approaching cold front.
Showers along a cold front in Eastern Oregon will slide into Southwest Idaho this afternoon, with the showers focused mainly across the northern portion of the forecast area. Showers have formed ahead of a cold front in eastern Oregon. Cold front along the Cascades early this morning will move to the western Idaho border around noon MDT and to the Magic Valley between 3 and 6 PM MDT. This timing will allow our eastern-most zones, including the Magic Valley, to become quite warm again today before the front arrives, but cooler Max temps will be felt today especially on the Oregon side.
Some slightly cooler/drier air cont to be progged to move into the area for Sunday.
The area remains under southwest flow aloft between an offshore long wave through and a broad ridge to the southeast. The showers and thunderstorms are being supported by short waves ejecting from the offshore trough. The last of the stronger short waves will move off to the east this afternoon as the trough weakens and lifts to the northeast. The ridge to the southwest will then build into the area tonight into Sunday. but another trough will deepen offshore at the same time. it will be dry and warmer Sunday.
These high clouds should result in low temperatures being warmer across the highway 20 corridor. Like yesterday, today should be a gorgeous day with slightly warmer temperatures.
911 AM PDT SAT JUN 18 2016 Expect cool, wet and breezy weather across the Inland Northwest today as a deep low pressure system kicks inland. Warmer temperatures are expected for the first part of the work week.
1002 AM EDT SAT JUN 18 2016 Cool and dry high pressure will extend down the East Coast through the weekend. Meanwhile, heights aloft will slowly rise across the area today and tonight as ridging builds eastward from the desert southwest. Those conditions, and climatology for forecast low level thickness values around 1375 m, favor low temperatures in the lower to middle 50s, except upper 50s in the Coastal Plain and ERN Sandhills. Low pressure will remain off the Carolina coast, as high pressure extends across the area.
Surface analysis early this morning shows a cold front stretched across the northern part of Alabama.
The southern extent of an amplifying mid-level trough over the eastern seaboard is approaching north Florida this morning. Low pressure will consolidate off the Carolinas this morning and help crank the surface front across our forecast area later today and tonight. Moisture is expected to increase ahead of the frontal trough (up to 2" PWAT late this afternoon), so coverage will continue to gradually increase through the afternoon. Convective vigor should be aided by cooler temps aloft, and a few storms will be capable of producing strong wind gusts up to 50 mph, small hail, and frequent cloud-to- ground lightning. one more day of surface westerly flow ahead of an approaching trough which is currently dropping south toward north FL.
659 AM CDT SAT JUN 18 2016 Little change to the upper level ridge in command of the heart of the CONUS. A low pressure system is coming onshore across the pacific NW. Ridge builds a little over the central Rockies today.
1055 AM EDT SAT JUN 18 2016 High pressure will remain in control this weekend.
* None Strengthening of the mid level ridge extending from the swrn US into the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes this weekend will ensure hot and dry conditions across the forecast area. This will result in an increasing sw gradient across Lower Mi and slight warming of low to mid level temps across the area, supportive of max temps in the low 90s Sunday.