Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
We will continue to see a quiet short term period as ridging aloft brings dry and warm weather conditions to the area. This afternoon, 500mb analysis places a ridge of high pressure across much of the southern plains and northeast into the Great Lakes. Upper level heights continue to increase as troughing moves off the east coast. Ridging aloft will persist tonight and through Saturday bringing mostly clear conditions. Strengthening subsidence aloft will tend to cap convection with the best chances of isolated showers and thunderstorms in the higher terrain where differential heating becomes maximized in the afternoon hours.
327 PM CDT Fri Jul 3 2020 A hot one today with temperatures creeping into the low 90s, but the humidities are also making it feel oppressive (by our standards) with heat indexes in the mid 90s. Saturday will be very similar to today with warm and muggy conditions continuing as an upper level ridge remains stationary over the region. While the strong ridging that we've seen does flatten a bit allowing more short wave features to roll through there just isn't any indication of a widespread rainfall - just scattered shower activity here and there.
/Tonight through Tomorrow Night/ Unfortunately, I do not have a better Independence Day forecast in store for you, as the Four-States region finds itself stuck between "a rock and a hard place" in the form of upper level ridging, and a stalling frontal boundary.
The highest chances are currently expected to be across the eastern third or so of the fa.
303 PM CDT Fri Jul 3 2020 Near normal temperatures today to start off the 4th of July weekend, but still a rather warm and humid day across the forecast area as dewpoints have climbed into the low 70s by early afternoon.
With temperatures climbing up into the lower 90s today combined with the high humidity, peak heat index values will remain a concern. /22/ Prior discussion below: Today through tonight: Anti-cyclonic flow on the east side of the subtropical ridge continues to support an active weather pattern over the ArkLaMiss region.
Another area of developing storms well to the west over the higher terrain is also expected to crawl westward approaching the state line perhaps mid evening. RMcQueen The mid- and upper-level ridge that has been centered across the southern Great Plains is forecast to retrograde westward into the Desert Southwest this weekend.
202 PM EDT Fri Jul 3 2020 A closed upper low is now located to the northwest of Bermuda with associated troughing extending southwest through the western Atlantic. This trough remains to the north while upper ridging extends over Cuba and the Florida Straits. On the surface, high pressure extends through the Florida Straits and into the Gulf of Mexico, while a stationary frontal boundary extends from from west to east along the northern gulf coast states, through GA and into the western Atlantic. Interaction between this boundary and high pressure over southern Florida will keep a warm and moist west- southwest onshore wind flow over the region for the next several days.
CAPE values will be around 1500 to 2000 J/kg, convective inhibition will be a little on the higher side however, especially across the SW CWA, suggesting unfavorable conditions.
The CWA looks to remain on the northern periphery of an rather flat upper high that will be situated over the southern and southwestern part of the country.
1126 AM MDT Fri Jul 3 2020 Current surface map places trof across far eastern Montana through eastern Wyoming.
227 PM EDT Fri Jul 3 2020 High pressure will cover the region today, with warm and muggy conditions and temperatures just above normal. An upper level ridge in the Midwest will stretch east into the south- central Appalachains through Saturday night. This inversion is fairly strong east of the Blue Ridge, but may be weak enough across the northwest North Carolina mountains to have a brief shower develop late this afternoon. Ridging gets slightly stronger tomorrow with a capping inversion around the same height as today.
1234 PM CDT Fri Jul 3 2020 Weak upper ridging and high pressure at the surface should keep most of the Northland dry and very warm today. Highs should again be in the upper eighties to lower nineties but a weak lake breeze can be expected to keep lakeside areas a bit cooler this afternoon. Weak lake breezes will again occur keeping lakeside area cooler.
242 PM CDT Fri Jul 3 2020 (Tonight and Saturday) Upper level ridging will dominate the weather across West Central Texas through the next 24 hours, resulting in hot and dry conditions.
313 PM CDT Fri Jul 3 2020 A plethora of outflow boundaries may provide a focus for showers and storms this afternoon and evening within a weakly capped airmass as the remnant MCV over northeast KS meanders south and east across the region with the highest pops maintained over southeast KS through the evening hours. Seasonable temperatures with highs in the lower 90s are expected through the period. The previous discussion mentioned the possibility of convective development along a 700mb trough axis which the models are still hinting at around 0Z.
1132 AM PDT Fri Jul 3 2020 After a very cool start to July, warmer weather is on the way. The higher clouds on the leading edge of the upper level trough of lower pressure will generally remain over the Cascades through this afternoon. /SVH 18Z TAFS: A closed low pressure circulation will spin over southwestern BC through tonight. Close to the low pressure circulation will be increasing high level clouds such as into KMWH, KEAT and KOMK.
This chance is low enough to keep our forecast dry for tonight, but should keep an eye on this low end chance. An upper level trough will develop across the western United States with a building ridge across the south central part of the nation.
The holiday weekend continues to look unsettled with shower and thunderstorm activity expected to remain on the high side. This occurring with fair weather high pressure aloft retrograding west of the area, and development of low pressure aloft with this feature lingering over the lower Mississippi valley. With moisture in place, a low level trof though ill defined meandering over area, and convective temps being easily attained maintaining high pops is in order. Rain chances will then lessen for mid-week as the aforementioned low aloft ejects northeast and high pressure becomes reestablished. West to southwest winds will persist between a ridge of high pressure over the Gulf waters, and a weak surface trof meandering over the lower Mississippi valley. A daily chance for showers and thunderstorms can be expected as low pressure aloft lingers over the region.
The quiet weather pattern will continue the next 24 hours with high pressure over the Gulf. Temperatures will continue to rise under the influence of the ridge with triple digits expected across much of Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley by Saturday.
A mid/upper level high pressure system currently centered over W TX will slowly drift farther west through Saturday, but remain in control of S TX weather. The high pressure is resulting in a subsident/dry mid/upper level airmass, which will continue through the short term. Moisture at the lowest levels will be trapped under a strong capping inversion leading to a vertical profile that is conducive for patchy fog late tonight and again late Sat night.
257 PM CDT Fri Jul 3 2020 Mostly sunny and warm conditions were found across the region under a weak flow on the edge of high pressure over the Great Lakes and a large ridge aloft. Dewpoints ranged from the lower 60s northeast to lower 70s in the far southwest. Little change is expected throughout as the upper ridge from TX to Ontario remains in place. Tonight will be similar to last night, with a few showers and isolated thunderstorms possibly refiring late afternoon and evening in the far south, closest to the axis of moisture convergence associated with a weak upper vortex lingering along a weak upper trough over eastern MO. Dewpoints in the 60s will provide moderate humidity levels and afternoon heat index readings topping out in the lower 90s.
Subtropical ridge that has been in place over the state the last few days will keep things quiet weather-wise for the short term. Ridge looks erode and begins to shift westward on Saturday, potentially bringing a change in pattern just beyond the short term.
Numerous showers and storms expected across mainly ne Fl this evening in vicinity of surface front and upper trough. Drier air aloft has moved into se Ga behind the trough axis so coverage will be less north of the Okefenokee Swamp.
Temperatures will rise into the upper 80s to low 90s today as an upper level ridge parks itself over the region. Overall the area will remain dry but a few isolated showers or thunderstorms are possible over the higher terrain this afternoon. VFR flight conditions can be expected through much of the next 24 hours as high pressure aloft brings mostly clear skies and light winds. Could see brief MVFR visb late tonight at TRI but confidence remains on the lower side. AD Chattanooga Airport, TN 71 91 72 90 72 / 10 30 20 40 20 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 70 91 71 91 71 / 10 10 10 40 20 Oak Ridge, TN 70 91 71 91 71 / 0 10 0 40 20 Tri Cities Airport, TN 65 88 67 88 68 / 0 10 10 50 20.
Have already had a few showers develop along the island cloud line over and Gulfside of the Lower Keys this morning. The ridge will settle south into the Straits over the course of this afternoon and tonight, leading to a turn to light westerly breezes this afternoon.
An upper level ridge over the region strengthens slightly, suppressing any surface-based, diurnal- heating lift.
West-southwest winds generally around 10-15 knots will prevail over the gulf coast waters as high pressure ridges over southern Florida. Daily scattered showers and an isolated thunderstorm will be possible each day with the highest chances north of Tarpon Springs earlier in the day before more of the activity pushes inland.
656 PM CDT Fri Jul 3 2020 A plethora of outflow boundaries may provide a focus for showers and storms this afternoon and evening within a weakly capped airmass as the remnant MCV over northeast KS meanders south and east across the region with the highest pops maintained over southeast KS through the evening hours. Seasonable temperatures with highs in the lower 90s are expected through the period.
The highest chances for showers and thunderstorms will be across the Eastern Lake Ontario region. otherwise high pressure over Upper Great Lakes to provide fair dry weather through Saturday night.
That said, the vast majority of convection through this evening is expected to remain focused to our east, across central Kansas, associated with the MCV, and with the orographically- enhanced lee trough across eastern Colorado.
743 PM EDT Fri Jul 3 2020 High pressure will cover the region today, with warm and muggy conditions and temperatures just above normal. An upper level ridge in the Midwest will stretch east into the south- central Appalachains through Saturday night. Ridging gets slightly stronger tomorrow with a capping inversion around the same height as today.
/issued 246 PM CDT Fri Jul 3 2020/ SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday Night): Hot and dry with an H5 ridge centered upstream and high pressure over the West Gulf and coastal Texas.
655 PM CDT Fri Jul 3 2020 Near normal temperatures today to start off the 4th of July weekend, but still a rather warm and humid day across the forecast area as dewpoints have climbed into the low 70s by early afternoon.
An area of high pressure just to our north will continue to promote hot and humid weather for Independence Day (Saturday) as we will once again see highs in the lower 90s with heat index values close to the 100 degree mark once again. Do expect some slightly better prospects for diurnal convection in the afternoon/early evening (mainly south of the Tennessee River), as a weak area of low pressure along the Gulf Coast and its associated convergence boundary slowly nudges its way north.
Quiet weather is expected tonight with a high pressure ridge over the area. Combined with a small increase in dewpoints as well as ample diurnal heating and a hint of upper diffluence around the edge of the ridge, thought an increase to low chance PoPs from only slight chance was warranted. Saturday night the ridge builds back in and the cap reestablishes.
649 PM EDT Fri Jul 3 2020 High pressure remains in place across the region through the weekend. High pressure ensures clearing skies as it noses in from the west into Saturday night. The H5 ridge that had buckled over the eastern U.
Long wave troughing is going to continue over the PacNW as we head into the holiday weekend but we will see the SW high push back west a bit. This will bring rising heights to much of NorCal and slightly warmer temperatures. With the ridge moving back west we will see weaker Delta flow and we are already seeing that this afternoon.
Common summertime pattern continues with weak ridging aloft and low level moist inflow trapped under a nocturnal inversion. A mid/upper level high pressure system currently centered over W TX will slowly drift farther west through Saturday, but remain in control of S TX weather. The high pressure is resulting in a subsident/dry mid/upper level airmass, which will continue through the short term. Moisture at the lowest levels will be trapped under a strong capping inversion leading to a vertical profile that is conducive for patchy fog late tonight and again late Sat night.
522 PM MDT Fri Jul 3 2020 Pac NW upper trough will remain anchored in the period, supporting active SW flow over the region at times, as deep moisture wavers over the region. Other isolated TS will be possible over the northern and central Black Hills, mainly the higher elevations this afternoon.
635 PM CDT Fri Jul 3 2020 A hot one today with temperatures creeping into the low 90s, but the humidities are also making it feel oppressive (by our standards) with heat indexes in the mid 90s. Saturday will be very similar to today with warm and muggy conditions continuing as an upper level ridge remains stationary over the region. While the strong ridging that we've seen does flatten a bit allowing more short wave features to roll through there just isn't any indication of a widespread rainfall - just scattered shower activity here and there.
924 PM CDT Fri Jul 3 2020 A hot one today with temperatures creeping into the low 90s, but the humidities are also making it feel oppressive (by our standards) with heat indexes in the mid 90s. Saturday will be very similar to today with warm and muggy conditions continuing as an upper level ridge remains stationary over the region. While the strong ridging that we've seen does flatten a bit allowing more short wave features to roll through there just isn't any indication of a widespread rainfall - just scattered shower activity here and there.
This appears to be being fueled by low level moisture convergence between a westerly flow from a meso low over eastern Kansas and the broader east-southeast flow around the broader upper level ridge over the Midwest. The RAP continues to move this area of moisture convergence to the west tonight as the flow around the ridge overwhelms the meso low. The easterly flow around the anticyclone in the vicinity of the Great Lakes should also advect a bit lower dew points into the region from the Ohio Valley tempering the humidity a bit.
Mostly sunny and warm conditions were found across the region under a weak flow on the edge of high pressure over the Great Lakes and a large ridge aloft. Dewpoints ranged from the lower 60s northeast to lower 70s in the far southwest. Little change is expected throughout as the upper ridge from TX to Ontario remains in place. Tonight will be similar to last night, with a few showers and isolated thunderstorms possibly refiring late afternoon and evening in the far south, closest to the axis of moisture convergence associated with a weak upper vortex lingering along a weak upper trough over eastern MO. Dewpoints in the 60s will provide moderate humidity levels and afternoon heat index readings topping out in the lower 90s.
The highest chances for showers and thunderstorms will be across the Eastern Lake Ontario region. Otherwise high pressure over Upper Great Lakes to provide fair dry weather through Saturday night.
1056 PM EDT Fri Jul 3 2020 Remaining diurnally driven cumulus will dissipate early in the forecast with just few-sct clouds in the lower VFR range. The amplification to the pattern will be muted some as the deep west coast trough pulls back north toward Canada and a series of waves works across southern Canada, though keeping mainly north of the Great Lakes at least through the weekend. This retreat will allow the subtropical ridge to spread across most of the southern states keeping the warm pattern over the conus going.
Do not expect a repeat of isolated convection on Saturday as high pressure builds back into the area. The amplification to the pattern will be muted some as the deep west coast trough pulls back north toward Canada and a series of waves works across southern Canada, though keeping mainly north of the Great Lakes at least through the weekend. This retreat will allow the subtropical ridge to spread across most of the southern states keeping the warm pattern over the conus going.
After this convective activity dies off, not really any renewed storms overnight as any convection that come off the high plains will run into a less favorable airmass the further east that it comes. Ketcham A plethora of outflow boundaries may provide a focus for showers and storms this afternoon and evening within a weakly capped airmass as the remnant MCV over northeast KS meanders south and east across the region with the highest pops maintained over southeast KS through the evening hours. Seasonable temperatures with highs in the lower 90s are expected through the period.
An upper trough along the northwest coast will shift inland Saturday with a slight chance of thunderstorms in eastern Oregon and a little better chance in Valley County/ID Saturday afternoon. Isolated showers and thunderstorm activity Saturday afternoon, mostly for the higher elevations of central Idaho.
/issued 242 PM CDT Fri Jul 3 2020/ (Tonight and Saturday) Upper level ridging will dominate the weather across West Central Texas through the next 24 hours, resulting in hot and dry conditions.
For the rest of the night, mostly cloudy skies becoming partly cloudy with lows in the low 70s, and rain chances drop to below 20 percent after midnight.
With the upper ridge being overhead, storms should generally be slow moving.
210 AM MDT Sat Jul 4 2020 Another active day is in store for the Western Slope as subtropical moisture circulating around a ridge of high pressure continues to be advected into the region. PWATs will remain in this range throughout the day before trending downwards overnight and into Sunday as the high's center drifts over Baja, shutting off the moisture tap. Activity will once again favor the higher terrain along the Continental Divide with lightning and gusty winds likely threats. Additionally, dewpoints will climb into the low to mid 40s across the southern and central zones this afternoon which will lead to wetting rains and even some brief heavy downpours with stronger cells.
123 AM EDT Sat Jul 4 2020 High pressure will cover the region today, with warm and muggy conditions and temperatures just above normal. An upper level ridge in the Midwest will stretch east into the south- central Appalachains through Saturday night. Ridging gets slightly stronger tomorrow with a capping inversion around the same height as today. Looking to Sunday, low pressure well offshore will draw a weak frontal boundary southward along the mid-Atlantic coast, where it will stall out situated from the coastal Carolinas into central Virginia.
Otherwise high pressure over Upper Great Lakes to provide fair dry weather through Saturday night.
Deep layer ridging is displaced well into the Western Caribbean and Central America, leaving a weakness aloft across the Gulf of Mexico. The low level ridge axis stretches west across Cuba, lending to light southwest breezes across the Florida Keys. Model solutions depict a shapely upper tropospheric trough sliding east from the south- central Gulf of Mexico to near the Keys on Sunday.
400 AM CDT Sat Jul 4 2020 Upper level ridging will continue to dominate across the region today, and in the absence of any significant lifting mechanism and subsidence it should remain dry. The upper level pattern begins to change by later on Sunday as the ridge begins to flatten as upper level energy deepens and drifts across southern/central Canada.
With the ridge firmly established to the west, today's highs will be in the low to mid 90s which will exceed the convective temperature. It will be even warmer off the Caprock, approaching 100. In addition, storms will develop over the higher terrain of New Mexico Sunday afternoon and could organize into another MCS, aided by a convectively induced/enhanced disturbance.
Sat, temperatures over much of the state will climb into the lower 90s, alongside sfc Td's of 70+ F, yielding another day of heat index values in excess of 95F, and parts of Srn and Cntrl AR tipping the century mark. Broad ridging over the Wrn US and desert S/W will result in stagnant Nrly upper flow over the Natural State. A brief period of N/Erly sfc winds Sun morning will allow for slightly "cooler" air to filter into the Nrn portion of the state, however it will quickly wash out as diurnal heating picks up, with temps likely reaching the upper-80s over most of the state (not too bad for early July in AR!).
With the upper ridge being overhead, storms should generally be slow moving. This wave looks to keep showers and storms, ongoing over and near the higher terrain Saturday afternoon, which will push east out across the far southeast plains and into western Kansas through early Sunday morning. Otherwise, there will be enough residual moisture to support scattered afternoon showers and storms once again, with the best coverage over and near the higher terrain.
An upper trough can be seen on WV imagery this morning with high pressure centered over northern Mexico. Waves lifting out of the trough in the PAC NW will generally remain to our north, and could trigger some thunderstorms over the Central Mountains this afternoon.
There will be higher pops for central GA in general with the highest S of CSG and MCN. Overall confidence is medium BDL Fcst period dominated by broad low pressure advecting slowly NEWD off the northern Gulf and with it abundant enhanced moisture setting up and stagnating across the southeast CONUS.
Water vapor imagery this morning showing an upper level high pressure dome centered over the central CONUS along with a positive tilt trough over western Canada extending to off the Pacific NW coastline. Today through Sunday An upper level ridge over the central Plains will ensure dry conditions prevailing along with mostly clear skies.
Elmore Guidance continues to have a rather disorganized disturbance tracking northward from the lower Mississippi River Valley into the Southeast U.
Long wave troughing is going to continue over the PacNW as we head into the holiday weekend but we will see the SW high push back west a bit. This will bring rising heights to much of NorCal and slightly warmer temperatures. -JHM] With the ridge moving back west we will see weaker Delta flow and we are already seeing that this afternoon. On Sunday the SW ridge will begin to push back to the east as the PacNW trough slowly begins to push south.
During the late afternoon hours, a weak cold front will begin sliding into the northwestern part of the CWA.