Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
754 PM MDT Sat Jul 11 2020 Expect increasing clouds tonight, as a weak Pacific cold front approaches the region. Other than a very small chance for a passing shower on Sunday, it will be partly cloudy, along with slightly cooler temperatures but windy conditions. Only changes this evening were to increase cloud cover, as clouds continue to move in from the west ahead of the Pacific cold front. A Pacific cold front will move into the Rocky Mountain Front region around 09z and then move eastward through Central MT on Sunday morning. Mostly clear skies and quiet conditions this evening will give way to increasing clouds after Midnight, as a Pacific cold front approaches the region. Afternoon temperatures tomorrow will be a few degrees cooler than today.
323 PM MDT Sat Jul 11 2020 Expect increasing clouds tonight, as a weak Pacific cold front approaches the region. Other than a very small chance for a passing shower on Sunday, it will be partly cloudy, along with slightly cooler temperatures but windy conditions. Mostly clear skies and quiet conditions this evening will give way to increasing clouds after Midnight, as a Pacific cold front approaches the region. Afternoon temperatures tomorrow will be a few degrees cooler than today.
A broad upper level trough is expected to remain over the eastern U. A few models still favor the development of a shower or two this afternoon/evening; however, with a good layer of dry air present in the lower levels, am not confident this will be the case and have kept PoPs on the low end. A cold front will approach Sunday as another s/w amplification occurs with the mean upper trof. There may be some morning showers to contend with, otherwise, the main forcing will arrive later in the day and early evening with the s/w trof axis and associated surface front.
Temperatures along the island chain are hovering in the lower to mid 80s, and winds on land are from the southwest to west around 10 mph. Surface analysis shows broad cyclonic flow across our region, due to a lengthy trough extending from the Northeast United States southward into Florida. The Atlantic subtropical ridge has been displaced eastward, with the western end of the ridge near Andros Island. Water vapor imagery also shows broad troughing over the eastern CONUS and Florida, between ridges over the central Atlantic and the Southern Plains. Evening observations show southwest to west breezes running 10 to 13 knots across Florida Bay and most of Hawk Channel, with winds slightly lower around the Lower Keys.
A dry cold front, which is located in central and northeastern Oregon, will move through southeast Oregon and southwest Idaho tonight.
Ocean breezes and marine air will keep coastal areas much cooler.
A weak cold front will bring scattered showers tonight and into Sunday.
642 PM CDT Sat Jul 11 2020 Upper level ridging will build north and east on Sunday and allow for slightly warmer daytime temperatures.
403 AM EDT Sun Jul 12 2020 Under mostly clear to partly cloudy skies and a steady, albeit light southwest wind, temperatures are holding in the lower to mid 80s outside of rain cooled temperatures in a few communities in the Upper Keys.
Stratus deck along the coast (albeit shallow around 1 kft) may cool KSUU area and Wrn Solano Co a few degrees on Sun as onshore flow should strengthen in the afternoon as upper trof moves into the Pac NW at that time. JHM High pressure over the region will stay in place this weekend. Most likely it will take another night before there is a decent return of the stratus which will translate into better Delta Breezes and cooler temperatures for the Sacramento region.
107 AM EDT Sun Jul 12 2020 Cooler and less humid overnight.
There are competing forces with a cold pool driving a bow echo southward toward the area into deep ridging. /issued 801 PM CDT Sat Jul 11 2020/ The latest mid-level analysis indicates deep high pressure ridge centered over New Mexico and extending eastward across Texas with the local area on the its eastern periphery. At the surface, a 1018mb high is centered across the western Gulf with high pressure extending into the Mississippi Valley. The feature will ride along the northeastern edge of the mid-level ridge and the ridge should help serve to weaken storms as they get into the ArkLaTex.
351 AM CDT Sun Jul 12 2020 After a couple of stormy nights for some, the synoptic high pressure situated in the southwest US pushes a little further northeast.
342 AM CDT Sun Jul 12 2020 After strong and severe storms pushed through the region last night, drier conditions return to the area today, along with the continuation of cooler temperatures. The cooler temperatures will remain in place into the new work week, along with the dry weather pattern. Temperatures increase again towards the end of the week, as High pressure builds into the southern Plains. This system dropped into the region ahead of a short wave trof, which will slide through the ne corner of IL around sunrise. This trof development will hold the chance for isolated showers and storms across eastern IL through the morning. Otherwise comfortable conditions will prevail today, with highs in the low to mid 80s. Td will drop to near 60, with temps bottoming out in the low 60s.
A boundary layer thermal ridge will develop across far western ND/Eastern MT this afternoon and will result in highs in the low/mid 90s.
Water vapor imagery showing short wave trough axis rotating out of the mid-MS valley with associated surface frontal wave near the central IL/IN border. Weak surface ridging extending down through the great lakes and midwest will bring dry weather to the area Mon-Tue.
412 AM EDT Sun Jul 12 2020 Weak low pressure and a cold front will cross the area this afternoon and evening.
A cold front is advancing across the area early tonight that will promote cooler conditions for tomorrow. Highs will be 5 to 15 degrees cooler tomorrow compared to today, and near 5 to 10 degrees below seasonable normals across much of the area. By and large good to excellent humidity recovery is expected overnight with low fire weather concerns tomorrow owing to light-moderate breezes and cooler temperatures.
A relatively weak gradient will give way to lighter northeast winds shifting more southeasterly by early morning after sunrise as the high pressure center continues to ease eastward. Afternoon highs will push into the low to mid 90s for much of the CWA with the highest readings near the Oklahoma state line.
Expect at least one or two more waves of precipitation today as the upper impulse pushes a surface cold front into the Ohio Valley. High pressure nosing in from the north will bring slightly lower dewpoints, but the emphasis seems increasingly on the "slightly.
122 AM MDT Sun Jul 12 2020 Active westerly flow will persist through most of the period as mean upper troughing continues over the NE Pac.
203 AM EDT Sun Jul 12 2020 A low pressure system and cold front affect the region on Sunday.
1257 AM CDT Sun Jul 12 2020 Upper level ridging will build north and east on Sunday and allow for slightly warmer daytime temperatures.
/issued 823 PM EDT Sat Jul 11 2020/ The area resides between upper low near the Yucatan Peninsula and large and broad upper trough over the the Eastern US.
Temperatures will be a little cooler today with this boundary moving into the region with highs in the upper 80s to around 90. With slightly cooler temperatures expected today, heat index values should remain around 100 degrees this afternoon so a Heat Advisory is not needed at this time.
Along with the lower humidity, it will not be as warm with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s.
Bermuda high pressure will dominate the middle and late part of the week. Once convection dissipates after sunset, expect mostly clear skies with temps falling to the lower 70s inland to mid 70s along the coast.
439 AM EDT Sun Jul 12 2020 Cooler temperatures have returned to the area this morning, prompted by the drier air mass and increased radiational cooling.
Locations along and south of Interstate 44 have the highest chances of seeing this activity early this morning. Northerly winds through the lower trop will advect cooler and drier air into the area also. High pressure will slide east tonight from Iowa into the Great Lakes. Winds will become light and with clear skies and a dry atmosphere, we should see temperatures fall into the lower to middle 60s. Cooler valleys and locations in the eastern ozarks may see temps fall close to 60. The mid/upper level ridge across the southwest US does not move much through the early part of the work week.
Temperatures and dew points will be a few degrees cooler then the past few days, with highs in in the upper 70s to low 80s and dew points in the low 60s.
253 AM CDT Sun Jul 12 2020 Upper ridging remained centered over NM and AZ per the 07Z water vapor imagery. At the surface, high pressure was slowly building south into the central plains. For today and tonight, surface ridging with dryer air is expected to increase convective inhibition.
Temperatures across the forecast area were in the low to mid 60s. At the surface, high pressure will lead to mostly sunny conditions and near normal temperatures in the low to mid 80s. Light north winds between 5 to 15 mph will advect in much more tolerable humidity compared to yesterday with dewpoints only in the low to mid 60s this afternoon. Tonight Decoupled winds, cool temps in the lower 60s, and residual low- level moisture could promote patchy shallow radiation fog in favored low-lying areas after midnight.
149 AM EDT Sun Jul 12 2020 A low pressure system will continue to track through Central NY overnight, bringing locally heavy rainfall. A weak ridge builds in early this morning with temperatures slightly cooler than previous days and lower dew points in the low to mid 60s will make for a more pleasant day.
S/W ridge will build across the region today, with mostly dry conditions, and warming temperatures.
Convective potential later in the day will revolve around how quickly the cold front that is currently located to the north in Kansas pushes through the area.
933 PM PDT Sat Jul 11 2020 A cold front will bring cooler temperatures for Sunday with winds remaining breezy.
Unpleasantly hot pattern appears to continue into the new workweek as area remains under adiabatically warming subsidence between an expansive southwest CONUS high and low pressure trof extending through the eastern CONUS.
A few weak ripples in the northwest flow ahead of approaching upper ridge may steepen lapse rates just enough to help spark some showers/storms, with any small chances being confined mainly along and east of the Mississippi River (east side of the ridge axis).
1257 AM EDT Sun Jul 12 2020 A low pressure system will continue to track through Central NY overnight, bringing locally heavy rainfall. A weak ridge builds in early this morning with temperatures slightly cooler than previous days and lower dew points in the low to mid 60s will make for a more pleasant day.
High pressure will remain across the region through the weekend. A weak, dry cold front will move into northern Utah late Sunday, bringing a slight cooling trend to the north. An elongated mid level ridge extends across much of the Desert Southwest this evening, maintaining a light westerly flow across the forecast area. Limited moisture coupled with strong afternoon heating allowed for isolated convection to form over the higher terrain of southern Utah this afternoon, however a very dry boundary layer with dew point depressions in excess of 70F at times across the lower valleys largely inhibited this activity from spreading off the terrain. This ridge will once again result in hot temperatures Sunday across central and southern Utah, along with isolated terrain based convection during the afternoon.
1106 PM EDT Sat Jul 11 2020 Cooler and less humid overnight.
Light shower activity around into Sunday morning with drier weather by late Sunday afternoon as ridging builds into Western Washington with some sunshine across the area. A weak cold front will bring scattered showers tonight into Sunday.
Expect increasing clouds tonight, as a weak Pacific cold front approaches the region. Other than a very small chance for a passing shower on Sunday, it will be partly cloudy, along with slightly cooler temperatures but windy conditions. Only changes this evening were to increase cloud cover, as clouds continue to move in from the west ahead of the Pacific cold front. Brusda Updated 1140 PM MDT Sat Jul 11 2020 (12/06Z TAF Period) With VFR conditions expected through the period, the main aviation concern will be gusty winds developing behind a passing cold front. Mostly clear skies and quiet conditions this evening will give way to increasing clouds after Midnight, as a Pacific cold front approaches the region. Afternoon temperatures tomorrow will be a few degrees cooler than today.
Locations along and south of Interstate 44 have the highest chances of seeing this activity early this morning. Northerly winds through the lower trop will advect cooler and drier air into the area also. High pressure will slide east tonight from Iowa into the Great Lakes. Winds will become light and with clear skies and a dry atmosphere, we should see temperatures fall into the lower to middle 60s. Cooler valleys and locations in the eastern ozarks may see temps fall close to 60. The mid/upper level ridge across the southwest US does not move much through the early part of the work week. Monday looks dry as the affects of high pressure/drier air remain.
435 AM PDT Sun Jul 12 2020 After the passage of a cold front, expect a cooler and breezy weather across the Inland Northwest today.
A cold front will cross overnight, with decreasing rain chances by Monday. Temperatures will once again remain fairly seasonable, generally in the lower 80s outside of the ridges. By 12Z, only a few scattered showers are expected to remain along the ridges, which will end by afternoon.
High pressure will continue over the region bringing dangerously hot temperatures through Monday. Through the work week as the area of high pressure weakens slightly, temperatures will lower back closer to more seasonal values. Again, no change needed with our heat products as area continues to sizzle under an expansive dome of high pressure positioned across the southern tier states. Similar to yesterday, could see an isolated thunderstorm develop over Mohave County as mid level moisture circulates under the ridge of high pressure.
High temperatures will be slightly cooler but windy conditions and low relative humidity will bring an increased risk for fire weather concerns.
514 AM MDT Sun Jul 12 2020 Active westerly flow will persist through most of the period as mean upper troughing continues over the NE Pac. Cold front will settle into the region Monday with breezy NW winds developing behind the front. Large scale northern stream trough will move into central Canada Monday night.
603 AM CDT Sun Jul 12 2020 After a couple of stormy nights for some, the synoptic high pressure situated in the southwest US pushes a little further northeast.
Hot and humid again today as temps quickly climb into the low to mid 90s with peak heat indices 100-105. An east coast CONUS trough present during much of the past week will maintain position near the region.
Trof axis has just about pushed east through the entire area and currently stretches from the SE GA coastal waters S-SW into the NE FL coastal counties along the I-95 corridor. The drier airmass that has filtered in aloft behind the trof axis across all of SE GA and most of inland NE FL has brought Precipitable Water Amounts (PWATs) down around 1 inch with slightly higher values closer to 1.
311 AM MDT Sun Jul 12 2020 The midlevel ridge will slowly get nudged eastward today as the next longwave trough digs across southwest Canada. The longwave trough will drop into MT tonight, sweeping a refreshing cold front into the northern portions of the state.
Additionally, with the lower dewpoints near 60 across much of the area, it should feel like a very pleasant afternoon. This should help to advect higher dewpoints and warmer temperatures across the region overnight. Expect a hot start to the work week as southerly flow ahead of an approaching cold front helps to enhance temperatures across the region. With near 4000 Joules of CAPE, modest shear and forcing from the approaching cold front. As instability wanes and the cold front pushes south Monday night.
307 AM MDT Sun Jul 12 2020 A hot and sunny start to the day, increasing cloud cover and winds for the afternoon and evening as a cold front and upper trof build in from the northwest. Front arrives a few hours ahead of previous timing for central zones (1-3pm) and combined with more cloud cover has resulted in temperatures a few degrees cooler for highs this afternoon from Billings to the west. Upper trof will continue to dig into the area on Monday with best chances for a shower/thunderstorm along the southern state line.
Pleasant conditions are expected today as upper level ridging builds in resulting in pressure values increasing. Expect similar conditions Monday as we'll be under the high pressure center. Temperatures will be just a little warmer with most of the area seeing highs in the low 80s.
The ridge of high pressure aloft will still be strong enough to spread hot temperatures through the entire area. A cold front, associated with the approaching upper-level trough from the Canadian Rockies will be the focus for rain showers and thunderstorms this afternoon through tonight.
There is a slim chance of thunderstorm develop later today near the cold front in far southeast OK, but anything that develops will likely be south of the KMLC site. Convective potential later in the day will revolve around how quickly the cold front that is currently located to the north in Kansas pushes through the area. Cooler and much drier conditions will arrive behind the front for Monday, but the cooldown will be short lived, as the upper level ridge strengthens toward the middle and latter part of the upcoming week.
Another very warm day across the CWa with an upper ridge axis over the area. Otherwise winds will increase over western parts of the CWA by this afternoon as low pressure deepens a bit over northern Wyoming, creating some critical fire conditions. The upper ridge axis will move east of the CWA tonight with an upper trough sweeping across the northern Rockys into the northern plains Monday, pushing a decent cool front across the CWA.
739 AM EDT Sun Jul 12 2020 A weak trough remains across the area today into Monday. Bermuda high pressure will dominate the middle and late part of the week. Better chance of rain arrives on Mon (PoPs at 40-55% across the area) as a mid-level trough approaches from the W and moisture profiles deepen a bit. SPC also has the area in a Marginal Risk of severe wx due to the aforementioned trough and weak to moderate instability in association with the seasonally warm/moist airmass in place. A cold front will make a run toward the coast Monday evening with what should be a barrage of showers and thunderstorms.
555 AM CDT Sun Jul 12 2020 After strong and severe storms pushed through the region last night, drier conditions return to the area today, along with the continuation of cooler temperatures. The cooler temperatures will remain in place into the new work week, along with the dry weather pattern. Temperatures increase again towards the end of the week, as High pressure builds into the southern Plains. This system dropped into the region ahead of a short wave trof, which will slide through the ne corner of IL around sunrise. This trof development will hold the chance for isolated showers and storms across eastern IL through the morning. Otherwise comfortable conditions will prevail today, with highs in the low to mid 80s. Td will drop to near 60, with temps bottoming out in the low 60s.
Upper ridging remained centered over NM and AZ per the 07Z water vapor imagery. At the surface, high pressure was slowly building south into the central plains. For today and tonight, surface ridging with dryer air is expected to increase convective inhibition.
Dangerous heat remains the theme today and tomorrow with highs likely peaking in intensity by Monday for many areas as a dome of even warmer 850-700mb temps arrives. Aloft meanwhile, a NW-SE ridge axis with deep subsidence and paltry PWATs remains in control.
Strong height falls will overspread the area late Monday as a trough progresses east and digs into the northern Plains and Upper Mississippi Valley. Through most of Monday the atmosphere looks well capped, but as heights continue to fall, moisture increases quickly, and the low level jet increases early Monday evening, thunderstorms should begin erupting over the eastern North Dakota and northwest Minnesota. A slow moving cold front and storm motion more or less parallel to it brings a concern for heavy rainfall and flash flooding.
A boundary layer thermal ridge will develop across far western ND/Eastern MT this afternoon and will result in highs in the low/mid 90s. An upper-level longwave trough will approach from the west later today, transitioning flow aloft to west/southwest and driving a cold front into western ND this evening and central ND by early Monday morning. However, most models have the cold front east of us by Monday afternoon, thus limiting the threat for storms to perhaps the eastern James River Valley or Turtle Mountains. This pattern will keep temperatures seasonal through mid-week, trending warmer later in the week as more zonal flow tries to develop with broad ridging over the southwest CONUS.
The rain chances and associated cloud cover will likely hold the northeast third of our CWA in the lower 90s today while mid 90s are likely elsewhere.
The cold front will cross the Ohio River by 18z. Weak high pressure will result in lots of clear sky, lower humidity, and somewhat lower temps tonight through Monday night.
Overall, a broad 500 mb ridge of high pressure will maintain the ongoing dry weather trend with limited cloud cover.
Elevated moisture transport in the return flow ahead of this feature is expected to result in convection across the high Plains, some of which may clip the southwest or far southern portions of the forecast area early Monday morning. Otherwise, a bit warmer and more humid air will return areawide on Monday.
S/W ridge will build across the region today, with mostly dry conditions, and warming temperatures. LL shear may favor the state border area and west central Minnesota for the highest values toward evening. A cold front with an associated area of low pressure will be sliding through the eastern portion of the CWA Monday night.
Either the ridge to our south is stronger than expected, or the lower pressure to our north is lower than expected. For the rest of the afternoon, rain chances will remain at 20-30%, with better chances for the Upper Keys and the northern fringes of the Lower Keys. From synopsis, a splintered western Atlantic ridge will meander near the Florida Keys and the Straits of Florida for the next several days.
An unusually strong ridge of high pressure continues remain over the american southwest with its axis centered over New Mexico. Extreme heat will continue for the next few days over the area due to this ridge. This ridge will also allow for monsoonal moisture to continue to flow into the region, as a third day of storms over Sonora continues to push moisture northward into Arizona. The big concern for storm coverage today once again comes down to the strength of the ridge suppressing lift versus moisture and diurnal heating allowing for surfaced based convection to initiate. As expected on most active monsoon days, storms will develop over the higher terrain first, with a slight decrease coverage as storms move off over lower terrain through the afternoon and evening hours.
Winds will become light and variable overnight as high pressure builds overhead. Pleasant conditions are expected today as upper level ridging builds in resulting in pressure values increasing. Expect similar conditions Monday as we'll be under the high pressure center. Temperatures will be just a little warmer with most of the area seeing highs in the low 80s.