Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
In the middle and upper levels, 700-200 mb, latest available IR imagery overlaid with model streamline analysis as of 300 am depict a northeast to southwest oriented TUTT (Tropical Upper Tropospheric Trough) positioned from the NE Gulf of Mexico to Southern Central America with the associated low pressure cell over the Yucatan Peninsula. Yet another TUTT cell is ambling westwards over Hispaniola, with deep middle and upper level ridging now relegated to the Western North Atlantic near Bermuda thence northeastwards to the high latitudes in the Northern Atlantic. At the surface and in the lower to middle levels, (Surface to 700 mb), 1025 mb surface ridging extends from the Central Atlantic westwards and weakening to the 1020 mb periphery east of Jacksonville. Temperatures across the islands are in the lower 80s with dewpoints in the high 70s.
A dry cold front will precede the arrival of the upper trough, situated over Western Canada.
Dry conditions and cooler inland temperatures will prevail across the region the next few days as an upper level low pressure system propagates southward east of our area advection a cooler and drier airmass across the region.
629 AM EDT Sun Sep 11 2016 High pressure across the southeastern states will maintain above- normal temperatures today. A cold front will reach the area Monday, bringing a chance of showers and thunderstorms along with slightly cooler temperatures.
400 AM CDT Sun Sep 11 2016 Per water vapor satellite imagery, a drying air mass is filtering into Southeast Texas from the north behind yesterday's cold front. Mid/upper level low partly responsible for area rains the last couple of days is moving from right over our area to just off to our east, and this feature along with daytime heating could generate some daytime storms mainly across parts of our far southeast counties and adjacent coastal waters.
Cooler and a less humid air mass will overspread the area today.
1237 AM CDT SUN SEP 11 2016 High pressure in firm control tonight, then advancing cold front starts to impact the weather. However, impacts first 24 hours will be increasing southerly winds and warmer temps. Cold front moves across area Monday, chances for thunderstorms remain high as previously forecast. With the front south of the area and a lot of clouds, temperatures will be cooler than normal.
/06Z TAFS/ VFR conditions are expected across South Central Texas through the forecast period as clear skies and northerly 5-10 knot winds continue behind the cold front that passed through today. Did see another boundary, a secondary surge of slightly cooler air with winds gusting to 20 to 25mph move through the Austin area over the last few hours. Upper air analysis this morning showed a weak low over east Texas with a deep trough over the Great Plains. At the surface, a cold front was stretched from La Grange to San Antonio to Pandale. The upper low will drift slowly toward the east beneath a broad ridge during this period.
/issued 614 PM CDT SAT SEP 10 2016/ /00Z TAFS/ Cold front has pushed south out of West Central Texas this afternoon and taken the vast majority of the rainfall with it. /issued 334 PM CDT SAT SEP 10 2016/ (Tonight and Sunday) A cold front has cleared all of West Central Texas this afternoon, with a few lingering post frontal showers and thunderstorms continuing, mainly across Crockett County. Overnight lows will drop into the low to mid 60s for most locations.
1104 PM MDT SAT SEP 10 2016 except for a few clouds over the highest terrain. with temps generally in the 70s across th plains and valleys and 50s and 60s across the higher terrain. Scattered high based thunder will be likely over the higher terrain by later in the afternoon. It will be warmer tomorrow than today. Enjoy the warm weather tomorrow as it will likely be cooler for the rest of the upcoming week.
A mostly dry upper level low pressure system will track southeast across Western Washington today for a cooler day.
Return flow has begun overnight with the ridge axis now east of the area. Highs will be warmest on the leeward side of the Buffalo Ridge where low 80s are likely. It will remain breezy and mild ahead of the approaching cold front with lows of 55 to 60. The longer term concerns are timing of trough and surface front across the region Monday and Monday night.
647 AM EDT SUN SEP 11 2016 A large area of high pressure over the Mid Mississippi valley will will move across the lower lakes today and then move off the Mid Atlantic coast Monday.
329 AM CDT SUN SEP 11 2016 High pressure will slide off to the east today resulting in increasing south winds with gusts of 15 to 20 mph expected by midday along with warmer max temps by several degrees. Tonight south winds will persist with modest moisture advection expected to occur which will keep overnight lows much warmer in the 60 to 65 degree range Sunday night.
SHORT TERM (Now through Monday): A weak cold front is moving south through the Coastal Bend and Rio Grande Plains, destined to continue through deep South Texas and the RGV this morning, bringing light north winds and isolated convection. High pressure will spread over South Texas behind the front, but the main center will quickly shift east, and winds will already begin to veer later today, becoming east by Monday.
442 AM MDT SUN SEP 11 2016 Splitting long wave trough over the Pacific Northwest will be playing a big part in our weather over the next few days. As the trough drops south, moisture will be drawn northward across the Four Corners. Trough over the western states will dig into the Great Basin by Monday night.
352 AM EDT SUN SEP 11 2016 Cooler and drier air on tap for today in the wake of a cold front. High pressure to start the work week.
328 AM EDT SUN SEP 11 2016 A cold front will cross the region today and high pressure will build in behind the front tonight. High pressure will settle offshore south of New England on Monday.
Subjective sfc analysis at 04z shows high pressure south in Missouri with lee side troughing beginning to take shape over the High Plains. Return southerly flow already commencing to our west with a field of mid level clouds over North Dakota in response to the warmer air aloft.
241 AM EDT Sun Sep 11 2016 Leftover showers behind a cold front will linger over the Western Catskills and parts of the Mohawk Valley this morning. High pressure will build into the area through the day today bringing drier air and fair weather.
High pressure ridge was right over the forecast area at 0Z/7pm. These showers will dissipate with loss of diurnal heating and the upper trof moving farther east. Cool cyclonic flow to the west of the main trough axis, combined with mid-September sunshine, has generated a healthy Cu field across much of my forecast area. The southerly breezes will usher in warmer temperatures with highs in the middle 60s near Grand Marais to the low to middle 70s elsewhere. A weak cold front will move through the forecast area late Sunday night and Monday.
300 AM EDT Sun Sep 11 2016 High pressure across the southeastern states will maintain above- normal temperatures today. A cold front will reach the area Monday, bringing a chance of showers and thunderstorms along with slightly cooler temperatures.
347 AM EDT SUN SEP 11 2016 Cooler and drier air can be expected today through Monday as high pressure slides across the region. Lows tonight will be in the lower to middle 50s.
309 AM CDT SUN SEP 11 2016 Some pretty spectacular sleeping weather underway early this morning, with temps diving down through the 40s and lower 50s with broad low level ridging working through the majority of the Mississippi River valley. That setup won't change a whole lot today with the ridge axis sliding slightly east but still very much exerting its influence locally, with highs just a shade above those noted yesterday expected. Further eastward push of that ridge will help tighten the gradient and return flow across the area later tonight into Monday, with the onset of modest warm advection ascent through the day but into a quite dry airmass initially.
415 AM CDT SUN SEP 11 2016 Surface pressure ridge across the Rolling Plains will depart farther east of the region today ahead of modest return flow on gusty SW winds. We continue to watch how the next strong storm system will develop over the Pacific Northwest along with a cold front that will slide south ahead of this storm system.
119 AM EDT SUN SEP 11 2016 High pressure and dry conditions with more comfortable temperatures will build in for the early part of the week.
High pressure will remain in control tonight. An upstream trough digging into LA/MS will support a surface cold front into south AL and central GA. All in all, a quiet night is in store with lows in the lower to middle 70s. A weak surface front moving through the southeast stalls on Sunday just north of the CWA while the upper level trough lifts northward, well removed from the CWA. High temperatures in the low to mid 90s on Sunday will mainly be limited to the low 90s on Monday.
An open trough axis will continue to pull away from the north central CONUS with a general zonal pattern in its wake for the rest of the weekend. This synoptic scale pattern will lead to a deepening leeside trough across eastern Colorado. The rising heights and downslope momentum will result in a much warmer lower troposphere and this will be seen in the surface temperatures as well. The work week will be characterized by a cool and wet pattern as another strong cold front pushes through Monday Night. This cold front, while the airmass will be quite a bit cooler, will not have quite the momentum south as the last front. The front will lose steam with mid level warm frontogenesis/advection continuing through mid-week following Monday Night's action.
High pressure will move through the region, with cooler and drier air passing through. Highs will top out in the lower to mid 80s, with a few locations in the higher terrain likely staying in the 70s. As the high passes east of the area, winds will gain more of a southerly component by Monday.
328 AM EDT SUN SEP 11 2016 A weak cold front will move into the forecast area today and stall.
Expect to see some lingering clouds early today behind the exiting cold front.
1035 AM EDT FRI MAY 20 2016 Currently - A blunt Atlantic ridge extends across Florida into the Gulf of Mexico, resulting in light southeast breezes across the Florida Keys and surrounding waters. The mid level ridge is aligned overhead, along with a zonal subtropical jet. Ridging will persist across the Florida peninsula this afternoon.
/issued 336 AM CDT FRI MAY 20 2016/ Will begin the day with an upper ridge over the area with an upper low over Nrn CA. This low will slowly wobble east as multiple lobes rotate in behind it. Leeside trough develops Saturday. west of the trough the wind will have more of a SW component helping with the development of a dryline.
On the backside of the low. Temps for today are expected to be a little warmer with highs in the 60s to mid 70s possible from north to south. a ridge of high pressure is forecast to set up over the Central United States with a return of southerly winds and more seasonal average temperatures for the weekend.
949 AM EDT FRI MAY 20 2016 High pressure over the eastern Great Lakes will exit to the east today as low pressure over the lower Mississippi Valley tracks northeast towards southern Ohio tonight. The low will exit to the east on Saturday as energy shifts to the east coast.
629 AM CDT FRI MAY 20 2016 An upper low was located over northeast KS early this morning with the attendant upper trof extending southward into the southern Plains. Several vort maxes were rotating northeast through the trof and contributing to a sizeable area of rain/showers stretching across southeast and south central MO into central MO. The vast majority of the guidance, with emphasis on the CAMS, have this precipitation lifting to the north/northeast this morning gradually diminishing in areal coverage as the upper low/trof lifts east/northeast. Glass The upper low will continue to move to the east northeast tonight and actually will gradually deepen as the large scale pattern amplifies. The upper trof axis will be located over the far eastern CWA early this evening supporting at least a slight chance for showers in SC IL.
Strong insolation will help push temperatures into the lower 80s across much of the CWA, although some isolated water- logged areas east of San Angelo may struggle to reach 80 degrees.
1059 AM EDT FRI MAY 20 2016 A low pressure system will lift out the Tennessee Valley and into the Upper Ohio Valley through tonight. Scattered showers will linger into Saturday as the low pressure system moves off to the east.
with temperatures climbing into the lower to middle 70s.
1201 PM EDT FRI MAY 20 2016 Warm high pressure will build over through Saturday.
Best area for thunderstorm potential will be Southeast Oregon as the upper low moves into Harney County late this afternoon. Thunderstorms could produce heavy rain and small hail (due to the low freezing levels). Snow levels (near the low) will be 5,000-6,000 feet in Southeast Oregon and 7,000-8,000 feet in Southwest Idaho. An upper level low located over Northern California will remain mostly stationary Friday then slowly drift north on Saturday. Nonetheless the area will be under an active broad trough. Both days though, storm motion looks to be 20 mph or less in at least the Northern third of the CWA, which may be more conducive for some flooding on the burn scars there, especially the Cornet Windy Ridge scar.
An upper level low will bring continued cooling Friday and Saturday along with a threat of showers and thunderstorms through Saturday.
1016 AM EDT FRI MAY 20 2016 Warm high pressure will build over the area today and Saturday.
We still expect improvement back to VFR this afternoon along the I-35 corridor as daytime heating and mixing help to lift and scatter the low clouds. The first few thousand feet of the lower atmosphere are saturated with surface dew point temperatures in the upper 50s to mid 60s early this morning.
700 AM CDT FRI MAY 20 2016 00z upper-air analysis revealed the continued presence of a split-flow pattern with an amplifying trough over the western U. Again, some lingering cloudiness could temper the potential for maximum diurnal heating with highs in the lower to mid 70s. The major trough evolving over the western U. The associated surface cold front will concurrently advance east through the northern and central High Plains with the greatest thunderstorm chances remaining to our west.
637 AM CDT FRI MAY 20 2016 Compact upper low continues to make slow progress across the ern half of the forecast area early this morning. With peaks of sunshine for the afternoon, expect warmer max temps for this afternoon as upper level ridging builds across the plains with max temps closer seasonal norms. As the ridge moves rapidly to the east of the forecast area this evening, low-mid level moisture begins to increase for late this evening, as flow becomes more southwesterly.
Upper low spinning from the central Plains will send a spoke of vorticity across Lower MI this afternoon. That upper low wobbles just south of the state through Saturday. Forcing continues to be very weak on the northwest flank of this upper low with just some 700-500mb deformation and very weak 850-700mb moisture advection and isentropic lift brushing the far southeast portion of the forecast area. Expect warmer temps for the Tri Cities region with more sunshine on Saturday which guidance temps handle well.
1021 AM MDT FRI MAY 20 2016 16z surface analysis had southerly flow over the CWA with lee trough across eastern MT into southern WY. Surface trof across central MT-eastern WY with strong pressure gradient producing southerly winds over western SD. Upper low will deepen over northern CA today, with upper ridge over the plains. More thunderstorms will develop Saturday as upper low pivots northeastward and ridge shifts eastward, resulting in increasing southwest flow over the forecast area and surface convergence increases ahead of trof.
This boundary and accompaning showers/isolated storms will drift northward today as high pressure shifts east. Expect good coverage of stratus tonight as onshore flow increases in response to next trough developing over the Western Rockies. Expect warmer temps on Sat due to slightly less cloud cover.
Dry conditions and warmer daytime temperatures today with some afternoon breezes. Those breezes will continue this weekend with locally windy conditions as well along with slightly cooler temperatures.
736 AM EDT FRI MAY 20 2016 High pressure over the eastern Great Lakes will exit to the east today as low pressure over the lower Mississippi Valley tracks northeast towards southern Ohio tonight. The low will exit to the east on Saturday as energy shifts to the east coast.
Surface trof across central MT-eastern WY with strong pressure gradient producing southerly winds over western SD. Upper low will deepen over northern CA today, with upper ridge over the plains. More thunderstorms will develop Saturday as upper low pivots northeastward and ridge shifts eastward, resulting in increasing southwest flow over the forecast area and surface convergence increases ahead of trof.
Long wave trough continues to drift through the Middle and Lower Mississippi Valley this morning with most noted short wave/PV anomaly across the Oklahoma/Missouri border.
Later in the taf period will bring the forecast ceilings back down to mvfr/ifr levels as expect the low level dewpoints to rebound steadily. The stationary front will weaken later today and tonight as 500 mb ridging builds over the south central plains in response to closed lows moving over the Pacific NW and the Great Lakes states. The NAM and the ECWMF come in warmer versus the GFS numbers and will go closer to a blend of these two models.
1129 AM EDT FRI MAY 20 2016 A series of low pressure systems will move northeastward along a stalled front in the forecast area.
A weak area of low pressure will move northeast across the Ohio Valley today and tonight with the back edge of its showers moving across eastern IL and northwest Indiana. guidance highs back in the upper 60s/near 70 seem ok but cooler near the lake. High pressure will build south across MN/IA/MO on Saturday and a few models squeeze out some light qpf Saturday afternoon mainly north of the cwa as a weak trough passes across the northern lakes. North/northeasterly winds will keep the lake shore areas cooler as the rest of the area should see highs well into the 70s.
Weak flow aloft is seen in the very short term period, but sufficient instability beneath this weak upper low is supporting some widely scattered thunderstorms north central early this morning. Expect this convection to last perhaps until sunrise as the upper low moves east after that. Friday will see a strong upper low consolidate over the northwest CONUS with a resultant downstream ridge over the northern plains.
short term begins with a large highly amplified ridge running from New Mexico through the High Plains of Colorado and Montana and cresting in central Saskatchewan. A large trough has formed in response over British COlumbia dropping south into northern California. This trough is constantly digging farther south creating a destabilizing southern flow pattern between these two large airmasses directly on the western half of the ridge. Ridge axis will move over the GGW CWA placing the western zones in the destabilized side. the trough to the west will dig into Nevada farther pushing the ridge eastward. With the ridge over the western Dakotas the region will destabilize with partial clearing and generate CAPE upwards of 1000+ J/kg during the afternoon hours across central and eastern zones with 2000 not out of the realm of possibility.
Weak high pressure ridge extending from the Atlantic into the Gulf of Mexico will provide a light/gentle south/southwest breeze.
Other problem will be high temperatures across the Nature Coast as the MCS moves east and even if it does not rain the clouds associated with it could keep readings cooler.
A wedge of high pressure at the surface will hold until this afternoon - currently there are E winds into AL - when a surface wave lifting through AL into NW GA will aid in wedge eroding. Cold front is through the area by Saturday evening.
Am not certain that shwrs will continue at terminals, but believe that they will last at least in vicinity 21/02Z W-21/06Z E as influences of upper level trough swing thru mid state.
Saturday looks very similar to today, but just a tad warmer.
Temps aloft will be a touch cooler and with sufficient instability it is not out of the question there may be a few stronger storms. Temperatures Friday and Saturday will remain seasonal but with the higher dew points it will certainly feel muggy for this time of year. Weak high pressure will be ridging across south Florida at the surface with a cold front in place across north Florida to start the period. An upper trough will be in place across the region.
614 AM CDT FRI MAY 20 2016 Upper level trough spinning through the Central Plains early this morning triggering a few light showers/sprinkles well to our south with expansive mid level clouds spreading northward through eastern Nebraska and Iowa. This trough projected to track eastward toward the mid-Mississippi Valley today, while another trough begins to drop south into the Red River Valley. With the more extensive cloud cover and cooler low level air working into the area around the Central Plains trough, have cooled temperatures today a bit from previous forecast, but still looking at highs a couple of degrees either side of 70. Should be another mild night with lows in the lower to mid 50s. Southerly flow is expected to increase throughout the weekend ahead of a trough approaching from the west.
Deep moisture will combine with both speed and directional convergence in the lower levels and we are looking at 1 to perhaps 2 inches of rainfall across western areas of the cwa through early afternoon. The backside of the trough will feature some additional energy and will therefore include some cloudiness and a low chance of showers into Saturday and into Saturday night along the Plateau.
Drier and cooler air arrives behind a cold front tomorrow with dry conditions continuing through mid week.
The models show this convection dissipating once the low level jet veers off east around 12z-15z this morning. Sfc dew points should rise to the lower 50s.
933 AM EDT FRI MAY 20 2016 Dry conditions and seasonal temperatures can be expected today before low pressure brings the return of showers tonight and into the weekend. CL Previous discussion: Temperatures will be near normal as ridging passes over the forecast area today. Cloud coverage and mid-level moisture will be on the increase through the afternoon as the ridge axis shifts east of the area and low pressure approaches from the southwest.
The upper trough responsible for yesterday's rain and thunderstorms is centered over eastern Kansas with the trough axis extending southward into North Texas. The low clouds will likely persist through midday then begin scattering out this afternoon. Weak upper ridging will prevail across the region through the weekend with strengthening southerly flow and warming temperatures. Despite the ridging.
This system is now losing its forward momentum and weakening rapidly as it bumps into the western periphery of a mid level ridge and encounters much drier mid level air. The low stratus clouds impacting the terminals across southeast Georgia and near the I-95 corridor this morning will lift to VFR by noon but vfr ceilings will prevail through most of the day as a convective cloud shield advances in from the west.