Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
Low clouds will gradually improve by late morning, with temperatures forecast to warm into the low/mid 80s. Models continue to indicate an upper level trough, currently moving ashore the coast of California, approaching far West Texas Thursday evening.
TEMPS WERE IN THE UPPER 60S IN THE COOLER AIR AND WITH CLOUD COVER DECREASING TEMPS HAVE RECOVERED BACK INTO THE 70S. FORECAST THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS IS STILL CHALLENGING BUT THINK FRI/SAT COULD BE ANOTHER TIME FRAME FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO TX.
BUT CU IS DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS WHERE SHOWERS HAVE POPPED UP OVER THE PAST 30 MINUTES OVER VILAS COUNTY.
FOR THURSDAY THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO COLORADO KEEPING MOISTURE LEVELS HIGH OVER THE PLAINS.
FOLLOWED CLOSELY TO THE HIGH RESOLUTION SOLUTIONS WHICH HAVE PERFORMED WELL OVER THE PAST TWO DAYS REGARDING CONVECTION FOR THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GLOBAL MODELS AND THE HIGHER RESOLUTION SHORT TERM MODELS. A RESIDUAL COLD FRONT HAS STALLED ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA. THE HIGH-RES MODELS ARE INDICATING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. COLD FRONT INDUCED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN TROUGH/LOW INDUCED THIS EVENING. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE DAKOTAS THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. BEST CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING RAINFALL WILL BE ACROSS MY NORTH NEAR THE TRACK OF A MID LEVEL S/WV AND NORTH OF AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE.
A WEAK VORT WILL RIDE NORTHEASTWARD IN DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE MAIN SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING. FRIES RIDGING IS PROGGED TO GRADUALLY BUILD IN THURSDAY. THOUGH A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS COULD LINGER INTO EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WV/MD RIDGES AS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE WEAKENING SURFACE BOUNDARY CROSSES.
18Z SFC ANALYSIS HAS HIGH PRESSURE FROM MISSOURI INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH A WEAK FRONT/BOUNDARY FROM LOWER MICHIGAN INTO EASTERN MISSOURI. QUIET AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS WITH DIMINISHING WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE AREA. COOL BUT DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AS THE HIGH MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH THE LOW TO MID 80S PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF CLOUDS AND RAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
UPPER LOW IS NOW OVER NORTH CENTRAL IDAHO. CIRCULATION AROUND THE LOW AND NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT COMING FROM CANADA HAS RESULTED IN A BAND OF SHOWERS STRETCHING FROM JUST WEST OF GREAT FALLS TO NEAR HEART BUTTE ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT.
Water vapor loop shows two waves moving into/across KS with the larger upper low still located well west across ID. The 19z sfc map shows low pressure across southwest KS with a warm front located from Great Bend to just north of Wichita east toward Chanute. Analysis of 850mb Thetae ridge/LLJ axis and evolution of MUCAPE overnight suggests that persistent moisture transport should set up across western KS into NE or just upwind of the western parts of the CWA tonight.
1231 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015 FOR 18Z TAFS /ISSUED 1050 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015/ A SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY IN SOUTHERN AR AND LA IS AT THE BASE OF A TROUGH AXIS THAT EXTENDS UP INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. WITH THE SHORT WAVE AND TROUGH AXIS MOVING OVER THIS AFTERNOON. WITH TEMPS FORECASTED TO BE IN THE LOWER 80S.
/ISSUED 1127 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015/ CURRENT MODELS INDICATE WEAK RIDGING FOLLOWING LAST NIGHTS SHORT WAVE. WILL ALLOW THE HIGH CHANCE POPS TO REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
LEAVING WEAK TROUGHING IN ITS PLACE AS A MESSY RIDGE BUILDS NORTHEASTWARD UP THE ATLANTIC COAST AND A LONGWAVE TROUGH RE-AMPLIFIES TO OUR WEST.
SAFFORD AND THE LOWER DESERTS. THE WEAK IMPULSE LIFTING ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AT THE BASE OF THE REGIONAL TROUGH. AS THIS LAST PIECE OF ENERGY PUSHES NORTHEAST AND OUT OF THE AREA OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS A STRONG AND BROAD BASED RIDGE POSITION WILL CONSOLIDATE FROM CALIFORNIA THROUGH THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AS WE LOSE THE SOUTHERN BRANCH SPLIT.
414 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015 LIGHT WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. WITH HIGHS RECOVERING INTO THE LOW 80S ON THURSDAY.
200 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015 WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS A DEPARTING MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WHILE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WAS BUILDING IN FROM THE PLAINS. TO THE LOWER/MIDDLE 70S ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER SCENE LATER TONIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF THURSDAY FOR A BRIEF RESPITE FROM THE WET WEATHER PATTERN. LOOKS LIKE ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD HOLD OFF TO THE WEST AND NORTH OF THE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS. LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT/LIFT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT PUSHING OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO MN.
1205 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015 LATEST 08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHEAST IOWA.
102 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015 BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFFSHORE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEK.
Water vapor loop shows two waves moving into/across KS with the larger upper low still located well west across ID. The 19Z sfc map shows low pressure across southwest KS with a warm front located from Great Bend to just north of Wichita east toward Chanute. Analysis of 850mb Theta-e ridge/LLJ axis and evolution of MUCAPE overnight suggests that persistent moisture transport should set up across western KS into NE or just upwind of the western parts of the CWA tonight.
401 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015 HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT WILL REMAIN ANCHORED JUST OFF THE EAST COAST THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK.
AS THE LOW LEVEL DECK SCATTERS OUT AND CEILINGS BECOME PREDOMINANT FROM 8K FEET AND HIGHER.
247 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER NORTH CAROLINA FROM THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE JUST OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT. WEAK UPPER LEVEL ENERGY TRYING TO PUSH THROUGH THE RIDGE HAS HELPED INITIATE A FEW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL ONCE AGAIN CONTINUE OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA FROM THE NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY.
327 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2015 AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWED A FAIRLY AMPLIFIED LARGE SCALE FLOW ACROSS THE LOWER 48. ONE TROUGH WAS PROGRESS EAST OF THE MS RIVER VALLEY.
Models had advertised convection developing along the cold front but between the front hanging farther north than expected, and the atmosphere being worked over, that has not happened. Highs Thursday should be a touch warmer than today, given the less coverage of storms.
WITH THE HIGHEST POPS GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF I- 65 WHERE THE DEPARTING UPPER TROF/MCV WILL PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.
313 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015 A STABLE POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS HAS SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT. HIGHS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S WHILE NORMAL HIGHS ARE IN THE LOW 80S. AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. A MID/UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO AMPLIFY ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AREA WHILE NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES.
A COLD FRONT WILL EDGE SOUTH INTO CENTRAL TEXAS. HIGH TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 80S ALONG THE COAST TO THE LOWER 90S INLAND WITH A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS. LOW TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S WITH LIGHT ONSHORE WINDS.
259 AM PDT SAT MAY 30 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING VERY WARM TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
A COLD FRONT WILL THEN GRADUALLY MOVE THROUGH AR EARLY SATURDAY AND SWITCH WINDS TO THE W TO NW AND CEILINGS WILL SLOWLY RISE WITH A LOWER CHANCE OF RAIN.
HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO RISE THROUGH SUNDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PULLS EAST FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA WHILE ANOTHER LARGER LOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED OFF THE PAC NW COAST. WE WILL SEE WARMER TEMPS EACH DAY THIS WEEKEND WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MAINLY IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND MAINLY IN THE NORTH.
LATEST MODEL DATA AND NUMERICAL GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF A BIT FROM THE LOW CIGS AND/OR VSBYS. BUT REMOVED THE LOWER VSBY.
152 AM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015 A STORM SYSTEM WILL PULL A WARM ACROSS NY TONIGHT, WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING LATE SATURDAY. OTHERWISE EXPECT A MILD AND INCREASINGLY MUGGY NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WARM FRONT. UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL SWING EASTWARD SATURDAY WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING OVER THE GREAT LAKES. AS A RESULT OF THE SLOWER FRONT AND THE ANAFRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS OF THE COLD FRONT / PRECIP AREA. COOL TROF SETS UP SHOP ON SUNDAY WITH TEMPS BARELY HITTING 60F IN THE SOUTHERN TIER. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE WITHIN THE TROF, ALONG WITH LOW, THICK CLOUDINESS.
557 AM CDT Sat May 30 2015 A cold front will continue sliding southeast through the forecast area today, veering winds to the northwest and gradually ushering in cooler temperatures and drier conditions. Although most showers have dissipated along and near the surface front, a few sprinkles are possible as the upper trough moves over this afternoon/evening, and widespread cloud cover will likely continue through most of the day.
THE SPLIT FLOW AND DOUBLE TROUGHS ARE MORE PRONOUNCED AT THE MID LEVELS WITH THE NORTHERN TROUGH NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. AND THE SOUTHERN TROUGH ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS EARLY TONIGHT. THE SOUTHERN TROUGH BRINGS A CLOSED LOW AT 700 MB WITH THE STRONGER UPWARD MOTION CLOSE TO KENOSHA. TEMPS WILL CRASH THIS MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. AS THE MID/UPPER TROUGH AXIS REMAINS TO THE WEST INTO TONIGHT.
A COASTAL TROUGH OFFSHORE WILL RETROGRADE WEST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING THIS FEATURE WILL IMPACT OUR EASTERN ZONES THIS MORNING AND THEN SHIFT FARTHER INLAND TO OUR WESTERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON WHERE WARMER TEMPS WILL ALSO BE SUPPORTIVE OF SOME THUNDERSTORMS. MAX TEMPS OVER THE WEEKEND WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 80S AT THE COAST TO AROUND 90 FARTHER INLAND.
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING NORTHERLY BREEZES BY DAYBREAK. RATHER STOUT COLD FRONT DIVING TOWARD I-70 IN COLORADO AT 3PM IS DUE TO ARRIVE IN OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES AFTER MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER MOST MODELS FAVOR ENOUGH POST-FRONTAL SATURATION ALONG THE ELEVATED FRONT/INVERSION LAYER WHICH SHOULD GARNER ADDITIONAL PRECIP CHANCES PARTICULARLY AS THE BASE OF AN UPPER TROUGH GLIDES SE FROM COLORADO. PRECIP SHOULD BE FADING STEADILY FROM N-S BY SUNRISE AS SUBSIDENCE TAKES GRASP BEHIND THE UPPER TROUGH.
ON SUNDAY THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION WITH GREATLY INCREASED SOUTHERLY FLOW FEEDING WARM MOIST AIR INTO THE AREA.
AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE HUDSON BAY CONTINUES EASTWARD.
A REGION OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BRING CLEAR SKIES TO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WERE MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 50S. THIS WILL RESULT IN OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 30S ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY MORNING.
342 AM CDT Sat May 30 2015 Upper lead trough axis was over western Missouri while a secondary trough and associated energy was located across central Kansas north into Nebraska. The cold front has cleared most of the forecast area except for areas southeast of I-35 at 08Z. Some light rain will be possible through 12z or so with lift from the secondary upper trough. Forecast soundings suggest that the low level moisture and clouds will be slow to erode through the day and may even see clouds linger in the east well into the afternoon hours. Gusty winds behind the front will gradually decrease this afternoon as high pressure builds southeast and pressure gradient relaxes. Tonight with light winds and partial clearing, temperatures will fall into the mid 40s across north central Kansas and into the lower 50s in east central Kansas.
419 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015 LIGHT RAIN DEVELOPED DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER TROUGH CROSSING THE PLAINS.
THE LOW-MID LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WILL BE IN TRANSITION TODAY WITH THE EASTERLIES OF RECENT DAYS BEGINNING TO VEER TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OVER THE WESTERN PART OF OUR AREA.
605 AM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015 A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY CAUSING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. RAIN WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S OVER SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN TO THE LOWER 80S OVER NORTHWEST OHIO AND NORTHEAST INDIANA WITH LOWS TONIGHT RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S OVER SOUTHERN MICHIGAN TO THE UPPER 50S OVER CENTRAL PORTIONS OF INDIANA AND OHIO. UPR LEVEL TROF OVER THE NRN PLAINS THIS MORNING EXPECTED TO MOVE E-SE TO WI/IL BY SUNDAY MORNING. MODEL GUIDANCE TANKED HIGHS BACK INTO THE 50S IN SOME SPOTS NORTH OF THE LOW TRACK.
410 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015 LINGERING CLOUD COVER OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN WILL DIMINISH EARLY THIS MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. THE ARRIVAL OF THE LOW-CLOUD COVER WILL INHIBIT FURTHER COOLING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON LEADING TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TODAY. COOL AIR ADVANCING ALONG WITH THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE THE COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR THE START OF THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOW 50S TO NEAR 60 DEGREES. COOL AND QUIET CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT WITH THE HIGH MOVING ACROSS NORTHWEST ONTARIO AND LAKE SUPERIOR. THE RIDGE SHIFTS FARTHER EASTWARD ON SUNDAY WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND WARMER ACROSS THE AREA WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.
300 AM PDT SAT MAY 30 2015 A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE WEATHER AS WARM TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS EXIST OVER THE REGION FOR ONE MORE DAY. THE RIDGE WILL THEN SHIFT EAST OF THE WEST COAST THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SHIFT WILL ALLOW FOR A RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL READINGS STARTING ON SUNDAY AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THE WEST COAST EARLY IN THE WEEK. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE REGION AS CENTRAL CALIFORNIA SEE/S ANOTHER HOT DAY. WHILE THE RIDGE AXIS IS NOW SHIFTING INTO THE GREAT BASIN.
1202 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015 SCATTERED STORMS IN PROGRESS ACROSS THE NORTHERN/EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA IN ADVANCE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO SWEEP THROUGH THE STATE OVERNIGHT. THE COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY SITUATED ACROSS SW MINNESOTA. TONIGHTS SYSTEM WILL LINGER A BIT LONGER SATURDAY MORNING AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SHEAR ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE CLOUD COVER AND CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH LATE MID TO LATE MORNING. OVERALL THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS LIMITING PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVER OUR REGION UNTIL ROUGHLY MID WEEK WHEN THE RIDGE FLATTENS.
259 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015 CURRENTLY COLD FRONT FROM GREAT LAKES DOWN THROUGH IOWA INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA WILL PULL EAST DURING THE DAY AND BE ALONG MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY SUNDOWN THIS EVENING. AT 07Z UPPER TROUGH TAKING ON NEGATIVE TILT FROM SOUTHEAST KANSAS DOWN THROUGH WESTERN ARKANSAS INTO LOUISIANA WITH CONVECTION CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM ILLINOIS DOWN THROUGH EASTERN MISSOURI INTO ARKANSAS. COLD FRONT CRAWLS ALONG THE TENNESSEE RIVER BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND ALONG INTERSTATE 65 BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY MORNING AND CONTINUES SLOWLY EASTWARD DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY.
440 AM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015 A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY CAUSING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. RAIN WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S OVER SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN TO THE LOWER 80S OVER NORTHWEST OHIO AND NORTHEAST INDIANA WITH LOWS TONIGHT RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S OVER SOUTHERN MICHIGAN TO THE UPPER 50S OVER CENTRAL PORTIONS OF INDIANA AND OHIO. UPR LEVEL TROF OVER THE NRN PLAINS THIS MORNING EXPECTED TO MOVE E-SE TO WI/IL BY SUNDAY MORNING. MODEL GUIDANCE TANKED HIGHS BACK INTO THE 50S IN SOME SPOTS NORTH OF THE LOW TRACK.
UPPER RIDGE FINALLY BREAKING DOWN OVER THE REGION THIS WEEKEND AS UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WITH INCREASED ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ADVECTING INTO THE LOCAL AREA.
COLD FRONT IN OUR VICINITY SUNDAY NIGHT. MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO THE OVERNIGHT LOWS BY BUMPING THEM UP WITH THE HIGHER DEWPOINTS FROM RECENT RAINFALL. PERHAPS MARGINAL UNDER FREEZING LEVELS AROUND 13500 FEET. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TO RIDE ALONG THE FRONT WHICH WILL HOLD UP THE FRONT INTO E OH UNTIL IT PASSES. DRAGGING THE COLD FRONT THRU AS IT PUSHES INTO PA.
COLD FRONT ENTERING NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA WILL CONTINUE TO USHER IN DRIER LOW LEVEL AIRMASS THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY THE END OF THE DAY.
LIFR FOG AND CIGS EXIST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. COLD FRONT ENTERING NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA WILL CONTINUE TO USHER IN DRIER LOW LEVEL AIRMASS THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY THE END OF THE DAY.
409 AM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015 BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY AS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TO THE APPALACHIANS.
HOWEVER THE MODELS ARE INDICATING MORE OF AN AMPLITUDE SURGE IN THE RIDGE TODAY AS THE RIDGE AXIS CROSSES THE CWFA. THE NEXT UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO INFLUENCE THE GREAT BASIN ON SUNDAY. AS THE CURRENT RIDGE BEGINS TO RAPIDLY AMPLIFY AND MOVE EAST ACROSS THE STATE. AS THE RIDGE MOVES EAST OVER THE 4-CORNERS AREA OF THE COUNTRY. LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO ENCROACH UPON NORTHERN CALIFORNIA.
409 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015 THE COLD FRONT HAS LONG SINCE CLEARED THE MPX CWA THIS MORNING. THOUGH MIXING TO H85 ON THE GFS/NAM WOULD SAY WE COULD SEE HIGHS A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN WHAT WE HAVE. BUT WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN UP WEST OF THESE THREE COUNTIES /FARTHER FROM THE HIGH CENTER/.
MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA INTO NORTH TEXAS THIS MORNING AS UPPER WAVE MOVES ACROSS AND SURFACE COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH. WHAT RAIN DOES OCCUR SHOULD EXIT THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH DRIER AIR OVERSPREADING THE AREA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. THIS SHOULD MARK THE START OF A DRIER PERIOD FOR THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AS MODELS DEPICT UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OUT OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL U.
134 AM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST STATES WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE OFF THE COAST OVERNIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE SUNDAY.
AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE MARINE LAYER WILL DEEPEN AND COOLER WEATHER WILL RETURN SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH ONSHORE FLOW.
1137 PM MDT FRI MAY 29 2015 MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND LOW PRESSURE IN WESTERN NEBRASKA WILL CONTINUE TO FEED INSTABILITY BASED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN 2/3 OF OUR CWA FROM LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNSET. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL BE A RESULT OF THE CLEARING SKIES. A RIDGE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL CONTINUE BUILDING OVER THE AREA SAT AND SAT NIGHT. ONLY ISOLATED WEAK SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING OVER THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS.
A LINGERING UPR-LVL TROUGH INTO THE NERN CONUS. AS THE NEXT L/W TROUGH AXIS DIGS INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. EXPECT THE MENTIONED ACTIVITY TO WEAKEN AROUND 03Z THEN A SECOND MORE ORGANIZED ROUND OF SHOWERS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT.
A LINGERING UPR-LVL TROUGH INTO THE NERN CONUS. AS THE NEXT L/W TROUGH AXIS DIGS INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. A STEADIER BAND OF PRECIP ALONG A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION AFTER 03Z SUNDAY.
RIDGE AMPLIFIES TODAY AND SUNDAY AND SHIFTS OVER TO THE WRN SLOPE. THIS SEEMS SLIGHTLY COUNTERINTUITIVE GIVEN THE RIDGE AXIS ON TOP OF THE REGION. SO MUCH OF THE CONVECTION WILL BE HUGGING THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND MORE OF THE SHORT LIVED PULSE TYPE STORMS. RIDGE AXIS WILL ALSO BE SHIFTING EAST INTO THE PLAINS.
THE PERIOD INITIALLY STARTS OUT WITH RIDGING ALOFT.
106 AM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE WESTERN LAKES. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT UPPER ANALYSIS SHOWS A BROAD UPPER RIDGE TO THE WEST OF THE REGION THIS MORNING. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A NARROW BAND OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE DAKOTAS. BREEZY SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE HIGH WILL HELP TO INCREASE LL MOISTURE OVER NERN WY AGAIN THIS AFTN. ON SUNDAY THE UPPER RIDGE WILL INCREASE IN AMPLITUDE OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS AND HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO AROUND THE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
316 AM MDT SAT MAY 30 2015 PRETTY QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. SUNDAY WILL BE 10 DEGREES WARMER WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING. BUT NOT VERY CONFIDENT THAT MUCH WILL DEVELOP DUE TO THE LACK OF CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS.
SOME WEAK ELEVATED BUT CAPPED INSTABILITY MOVES TOWARD THE CO/KS BORDER DURING THE NIGHT ALONG THE LOW LEVEL JET. COULD SEE A FEW READINGS IN THE LOW 40S IN PARTS OF NORTON COUNTY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SLOWLY MOVES IN FROM THE WEST AHEAD OF APPROACHING TROUGH ACROSS THE WEST COAST. 850MB TEMPERATURES WOULD SUPPORT READINGS ABOUT 5F WARMER.
352 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015 PRETTY UNSETTLED AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE WITH LARGE UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. BROAD TROUGHING WOULD SUGGEST THE IMPETUS OF THE NORTH TEXAS COMPLEX WOULD MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. BOTH ARE IN AGREEMENT IN SHARPENING THE TROUGH AXIS SUNDAY FOR MORE STORMINESS WITH LOWER LCL AND TRIGGER TEMPERATURE UNDER COLD POOL ALOFT.
543 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015 LIGHT RAIN DEVELOPED DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER TROUGH CROSSING THE PLAINS.
UPPER RIDGE WILL BE BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHWEST TODAY WHICH WILL BE TRANSLATING EASTWARD TONIGHT. DEW POINTS GENERALLY IN THE 30S AND LOWER 40S ACROSS THE LOWER EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SE MTS SHOULD YIELD THE HIGHEST CAPES OF AROUND 500- NEAR 1000 J/KG IF MOISTURE CAN HANG IN. WITH COOLER AIRMASS LIKELY KEEPING ATMOS TOO CAPPED ACROSS THE PLAINS. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY THIS EVENING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING OFF INTO THE 40S AND LOWER 50S FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. WITH 30S AND A FEW UPPER 20S FOR THE HIGHER MOUNTAIN AREAS.
306 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015 ATTM MOST OF THE CWA IS UNDER MOSTLY CLR SKIES WITH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW/MID 60S. WHILE AN UPPER TROF WAS OVER THE SRN PLAINS. THE CDFNT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SE TODAY AND SHOULD BE LOCATED OVER SERN MO BY THIS EVENING AS THE UPPER TROF ALSO MOVES TOWARDS THE TN VALLEY. WITH THE CDFNT/UPPER TROF APPROACHING THE TN VALLEY TONIGHT.
301 AM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TODAY AND WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT.
333 AM CDT Sat May 30 2015 A cold front will continue sliding southeast through the forecast area today, veering winds to the northwest and gradually ushering in cooler temperatures and drier conditions. Although most showers have dissipated along and near the surface front, a few sprinkles are possible as the upper trough moves over this afternoon/evening, and widespread cloud cover will likely continue through most of the day.
SHRA/TSRA WILL BEGIN FIRST ARND MSL TOMORROW MORNING AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW. THREAT FOR A MORE WIDESPREAD TSRA EVENT MAY INCREASE SATURDAY EVENING AS PREFRONTAL TROUGH DRIFTS SWD INTO REGION.
300 AM PDT SAT MAY 30 2015 ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR INLAND AREAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS OVERHEAD.
534 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015 THE COLD FRONT HAS LONG SINCE CLEARED THE MPX CWA THIS MORNING. THOUGH MIXING TO H85 ON THE GFS/NAM WOULD SAY WE COULD SEE HIGHS A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN WHAT WE HAVE. BUT WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN UP WEST OF THESE THREE COUNTIES /FARTHER FROM THE HIGH CENTER/.
WHEN THIS ROUND OF PCPN MOVES EAST SATURDAY NIGHT A SUBTLE WARM FRONT DRIFTS NORTH AND MEANDERS IN A WEST TO EAST LINE ACROSS OUR AREA SUNDAY.