Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
The channel of H7 impulses will drift just near or just off the coast tonight into Tuesday as the mid-level trough NW of the area amplifies. Support from the upper jet and sea breeze front should result in additional storms firing during Tuesday, with better chances in the higher PWAT air-mass across the eastern areas and with the sea breeze boundary to work with.
200 PM MDT Mon Aug 22 2022 Broad ridging aloft will prevail over the Tri-State area in this period. A weakening upper level wave -- trapped beneath the ridge in western CO (per 09Z WV imagery and SPC mesoanalysis data) -- will continue to de-amplify as it meanders slowly southward into NM today -- further weakening and/or dissipating altogether tonight and Tuesday.
1211 PM CDT Mon Aug 22 2022 Ridging over Central Great Basin will continue over the next few days while broad troughing continues in the east, leaving weak NW flow overhead. Mostly sunny skies and light east to southeast winds can be expected along with seasonable temperatures, highs in the low 90s and overnight lows in the 60s.
A modest westerly flow pattern aloft continues across our forecast area late this morning along the base of an upper level trough that extends along much of the eastern and northeastern CONUS and also to the north of a broad upper level ridge of high pressure located across the Gulf of Mexico.
At the surface, we will be generally on the southern edge of high pressure during the short term, with winds on the light side and out of the north to northeast most of the time. This pattern does change at the end of the week into the weekend as the western ridge migrates east into the southeastern states.
Positivelytilted high pressure over the Four Corners region will continue for the short term, keeping the area under a north to northeast flow.
Weak ridging across the central CONUS is keeping the weather quiet with diurnally driven cumulus peppering the sky. To the south, a larger area of precipitation across TX, which has brought intense flooding rain, has cut off the flow from the Gulf keeping our dew points down in the low to mid 60s resulting in quite pleasant conditions across the area. The high across the SW CONUS expands late in the week pushing temperatures up ever so slightly. Upper level flow opens up facilitating the opportunity for ridge running mesoscale convective systems (MCS).
1257 PM CDT Mon Aug 22 2022 Water vapor imagery shows upper-level troughing over the eastern U. This will keep low-level flow out of the north/northeast and cooler air advecting into the CWA, keeping temperatures on just the cool side of typical mid-August values. On Tuesday, with the upper-level trough holding over the eastern U.
Overall, the forecast is on track with the weak cold front moving over the area today with clearing behind it and lingering showers and isolated thunderstorms holding on along the mountains. Discussion: The axis of the upper trough over the region will shift to our east during the period. A weak cold front will push through today and then be off to our south/east tonight.
An area of showers and thunderstorms will continue to slowly move eastward through north-central Idaho and western Montana this afternoon and evening as a trough of low pressure moves into the region. The low pressure system moving into the region today is forecast to stall in northeastern Washington and northern Idaho, and will cause daily showers and thunderstorms across north-central Idaho and western Montana.
140 PM MDT Mon Aug 22 2022 Upper level analysis shows widespread ridging over the western US beginning to break down as a trough axis pushes onshore across the Pacific NW. As high pressure settles in across the southwestern US over the next few days, the aforementioned trough is forecast to stall over northern ID/eastern WA, effectively becoming a closed low. As moisture continues to stream into the region, expect near daily thunderstorm chances through much of the upcoming week as temperatures trend cooler, to near-normal levels.
205 PM EDT Mon Aug 22 2022 An upper level trough will exit the Ohio Valley later today with drier northwest flow found in its wake.
325 PM CDT Mon Aug 22 2022 A strong trough is moving across the eastern Great Lakes this afternoon with the attendant trough axis extending southwest across the OH Valley into the Arklatex. Deep, tropical moisture is centered over the Arklatex, bounded to the north by a very slow-moving cold front bifurcating the Mid-South. Current radar trends indicate a band of showers in the vicinity of the front with lift being enhanced to our west by a mid-level low pressure center around 700 mb.
214 PM EDT Mon Aug 22 2022 Showers and isolated storms continue with a cold front today. Drier and warmer conditions are then expected for the remainder of the work week, although isolated storms possible at times. Shower and storm activity should wane once the front and trough axis push east of the area by late evening, then valley fog is expected to develop where enough clearing occurs. Drier conditions are expected for much of the area on Tuesday as the trough and low lift northeast, allowing heights to rise overhead. Tuesday's high temperatures are expected to be in the upper 70s to mid 80s for the lowlands and mid 60s to 70s in the mountains. Overall drier on Tuesday, although a few light showers/isold storms may linger across the far north and east under the influence of upper trough.
250 PM EDT Mon Aug 22 2022 Showers and isolated storms continue with a cold front today.
Aloft, the upper level trough axis is now just to our east. An upper level ridge with weak flow aloft will be slowly shifting into our area. Before that occurs, a weak cold front will move over the area from northwest to southeast this evening. Residual moisture, clearing skies, and high pressure building in will support patchy fog development in the morning hours.
605 PM CDT Mon Aug 22 2022 High pressure over Iowa will drift southeast into Illinois over the next 24 hours.
625 PM CDT Mon Aug 22 2022 (This afternoon through Tuesday night) NW flow aloft with lessening influence from the departing shrtwv trof to the e. The primary mid-level theta-e ridge axis has shifted s as has the front, but RH at 7h and 5h will be some what slow to decrease across the PB. Elsewhere storms that form this afternoon will slowly decrease into the evening, but the possibility of a SHRA/TSRA will remain thru the night across the Trans Pecos where said theta-e ridge will reside. Mid-level theta-e ridge lingers INVOF Rio Grande and low order PoPs are justified there into Wed AM, again NBM is too high.
/issued 325 PM CDT Mon Aug 22 2022/ A strong trough is moving across the eastern Great Lakes this afternoon with the attendant trough axis extending southwest across the OH Valley into the Arklatex. Deep, tropical moisture is centered over the Arklatex, bounded to the north by a very slow-moving cold front bifurcating the Mid-South. Current radar trends indicate a band of showers in the vicinity of the front with lift being enhanced to our west by a mid-level low pressure center around 700 mb.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 68 86 66 88 69 / 20 10 10 30 30 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 66 85 64 89 68 / 10 0 0 20 20 Oak Ridge, TN 65 85 64 88 66 / 10 0 0 10 20 Tri Cities Airport, TN 62 82 61 87 65 / 10 0 0 10 10.
Drier conditions will exist tonight and Tuesday as weak high pressure builds across the region. Highs climb into the lower 80s with warming H8 level.
Jaja High pressure over Iowa will drift southeast into Illinois over the next 24 hours.
Upper level ridge is cutting off flow through the Delta and things are running about 10 degrees warmer in that region with other areas within a few degrees of yesterday. Short wave trough will push east over the region tomorrow.
High pressure over the region will produce hotter temperatures through Tuesday.
Otherwise expect increasing chances of rain through the week and cooler temperatures. A weak cold front still looks to drop south across the area late this afternoon and evening. A much more unsettled pattern and slow-moving low pressure system still looks on track to bring in some monsoonal moisture for the next several days.
An upper level trough will linger over the area and is producing some thunderstorms along the northern Cascade crest.
There will be a ridge over Wyoming with the long wave trough extending from a low in WA southward through CA.
The strongest of these storms have been over the interior and southwest Florida with the highest wind gusts around 30-40 mph. High pressure remains over the area with light ENE through ESE winds becoming westerly close to the coast each afternoon.
Temperatures nudge cooler for the remainder of the week. The typical marine influence will maintain cooler temperatures and cloudier conditions near the coast through the week with the potential for coastal drizzle by mid/late week. Yesterday's cooldown from a trough passage across NorCal is being replaced by a large high pressure cell that spans from the eastern Pacific Ocean and into the southwestern US. The Santa Rosa Airport (North Bay) is currently running 10 degrees warmer than yesterday. Concord Airport (East Bay) is 4 degrees warmer. San Jose Aiport (South Bay) is 2 degrees warmer. SFO is 1 degree warmer. Watsonville and Salinas airports (Monterey Bay) are 8 degrees warmer.
Water vapor satellite imagery showing much drier air moving into the region behind an exiting upper trough.
Isolated to scattered showers and storms continue to move towards the south-southeast this afternoon with the highest concentration of cells located along the Mogollon Rim through the White Mountains. Dry air aloft continues to spread across Arizona as high pressure crests overhead. Tuesday will be another day with less activity as the high moves across and off to the east of the area.
Temperatures nudge cooler for the remainder of the week. The typical marine influence will maintain cooler temperatures and cloudier conditions near the coast through the week with the potential for coastal drizzle by mid/late week. Yesterday's cooldown from a trough passage across NorCal is being replaced by a large high pressure cell that spans from the eastern Pacific Ocean and into the southwestern US. The Santa Rosa Airport (North Bay) is currently running 10 degrees warmer than yesterday. Concord Airport (East Bay) is 4 degrees warmer. San Jose Airport (South Bay) is 2 degrees warmer. SFO is 1 degree warmer. Watsonville and Salinas airports (Monterey Bay) are 8 degrees warmer.
1037 PM EDT Mon Aug 22 2022 Currently - A midlatitude trough over the eastern United States has weakened the western flank of the Atlantic ridge, which runs westward across Florida and along the gulf coast. Short Term Update - While weak, the Atlantic ridge will hold across Florida and the northeastern Gulf of Mexico through the overnight period. Expect overnight lows in the lower 80s with dew points in the mid to upper 70s. A ridge across Florida will maintain gentle to moderate easterly flow across Keys waters through the overnight period. In 1852, a Hurricane moved northwest through the Straits south of the Lower Keys.
915 PM EDT Mon Aug 22 2022 Cold front is expected to stall offshore and weaken during the middle of the week as high pressure noses in from the Ohio River Valley, and Bermuda high pressure builds offshore. The cold front is slowly exiting areas east of the Blue Ridge Mountains and nearing the I-95 corridor. Low temperatures are expected to drop back into the 60s (about 10 degrees cooler for the mountains). The aforementioned cold front pushes offshore and stalls just to our southeast on Tuesday. Meanwhile, the primary upper trough slides by across our north.
706 PM CDT Mon Aug 22 2022 (This evening through Tuesday) Water vapor imagery shows the H700 trough situated broadly over north Texas this afternoon. As one would expect from the recent rainfall, a moist boundary layer is present over far southern and southeastern Oklahoma with dewpoint temperatures in the low to mid 70's with a noticable gradient oriented from southwest to northeast across central Oklahoma. Scattered clouds will remain over central Oklahoma with greater coverage south, and overnight low temperatures will be slightly cooler than the previous night. As for the H700mb trough over north Texas, this feature shifts slightly eastward this evening and remains nearly stationary over towards Ark-La-Tex into Tuesday and will continue to advect low/mid-level moisture over the south/southeast parts of the CWA through tomorrow.
(This evening through Tuesday) Water vapor imagery shows the H700 trough situated broadly over north Texas this afternoon. As one would expect from the recent rainfall, a moist boundary layer is present over far southern and southeastern Oklahoma with dewpoint temperatures in the low to mid 70's with a noticable gradient oriented from southwest to northeast across central Oklahoma. Scattered clouds will remain over central Oklahoma with greater coverage south, and overnight low temperatures will be slightly cooler than the previous night. As for the H700mb trough over north Texas, this feature shifts slightly eastward this evening and remains nearly stationary over towards Ark-La-Tex into Tuesday and will continue to advect low/mid-level moisture over the south/southeast parts of the CWA through tomorrow.
630 PM CDT Mon Aug 22 2022 (Through Tonight) Diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms are developing on the north side of the low near the ArkLaTex, primarily affecting parts of southeast Oklahoma and west central Arkansas. Temperature-wise, most locations should see temperatures near last night's values and perhaps a couple of degrees cooler in parts of southeast Oklahoma.
Positively tilted high pressure over the Four Corners region will continue for the short term, keeping the area under a north to northeast flow.
729 PM EDT Mon Aug 22 2022 As low pressure moves off to the east tonight, high pressure will begin to build into the region from the west.
Thunderstorms will diminish this eve with trough progress and loss of sfc warmth.
932 PM EDT Mon Aug 22 2022 As low pressure moves off to the east tonight, high pressure will begin to build into the region from the west.
513 PM MDT Mon Aug 22 2022 Upper level analysis shows widespread ridging over the western US beginning to break down as a trough axis pushes onshore across the Pacific NW. As high pressure settles in across the southwestern US over the next few days, the aforementioned trough is forecast to stall over northern ID/eastern WA, effectively becoming a closed low. As moisture continues to stream into the region, expect near daily thunderstorm chances through much of the upcoming week as temperatures trend cooler, to near-normal levels.
A dome of high pressure continues to exert dominance over the region, with afternoon temperatures making a run at records for the first half of the week.
CMiller (Issued 210 PM CDT Mon Aug 22 2022) Tonight through Tuesday night: High pressure will keep fair weather conditions in place over the next few days.
709 PM CDT Mon Aug 22 2022 High pressure remains over the region, with a diurnal cumulus field found over the CWA. Highs in the low 80s are expected.
105 AM EDT Tue Aug 23 2022 As low pressure moves off to the east tonight, high pressure will begin to build into the region from the west.
436 AM EDT Tue Aug 23 2022 A slow moving surface and upper level low pressure system will cross the region today, bringing widespread showers with isolated thunderstorms.
139 AM MDT Tue Aug 23 2022 A broad upper level ridge -- extending eastward from the Intermountain West/4-Corners to the Central High Plains -- will persist through mid-week.
Meanwhile, an area of weak 850 mb convergence has resulted in pronounced area of ACCAS near and east of the Buffalo Ridge.
Today will seem very similar to yesterday, however it will be more of a transition day as the upper/mid level ridge gets pushed out of the area and a frontal boundary, associated with an upper level trough, begins the descent into Florida.
1043 PM MDT Mon Aug 22 2022 Upper level analysis shows widespread ridging over the western US beginning to break down as a trough axis pushes onshore across the Pacific NW. As high pressure settles in across the southwestern US over the next few days, the aforementioned trough is forecast to stall over northern ID/eastern WA, effectively becoming a closed low. As moisture continues to stream into the region, expect near daily thunderstorm chances through much of the upcoming week as temperatures trend cooler, to near-normal levels.
(Today and tonight) Precipitation chances will continue to head in the downward direction today but cooler than seasonal average temperatures will remain. The cooler temperatures will primarily be due to the prevailing low level northeasterly winds. The mid and upper levels of the atmosphere will begin to dry out this morning but the lower troposphere will stay relatively moist.
Ridging over the Central Great Basin will continue over the next few days while broad troughing continues in the east CONUS, leaving weak NW flow overhead.
Water vapor imagery this morning shows an upper ridge over the southern California area with long-wave troughing moving across the eastern seaboard. Temperatures across the area are in the mid 60s with dewpoints hovering in the low to mid 60s.
Discussion: The upper trough over the eastern US will gradually de-amplify during the period. At the surface weak high pressure centered to our northwest and north will extend into our area.
Additionally, the weak, western edge of the trough over the Great Lakes region may provide modest lift there.
1156 PM CDT Mon Aug 22 2022 (This evening through Tuesday) Water vapor imagery shows the H700 trough situated broadly over north Texas this afternoon. As one would expect from the recent rainfall, a moist boundary layer is present over far southern and southeastern Oklahoma with dewpoint temperatures in the low to mid 70's with a noticable gradient oriented from southwest to northeast across central Oklahoma. Scattered clouds will remain over central Oklahoma with greater coverage south, and overnight low temperatures will be slightly cooler than the previous night. As for the H700mb trough over north Texas, this feature shifts slightly eastward this evening and remains nearly stationary over towards Ark-La-Tex into Tuesday and will continue to advect low/mid-level moisture over the south/southeast parts of the CWA through tomorrow.
150 AM EDT Tue Aug 23 2022 As low pressure moves off to the east tonight, high pressure will begin to build into the region from the west.
1247 AM CDT Tue Aug 23 2022 High pressure remains over the region, with a diurnal cumulus field found over the CWA. Highs in the low 80s are expected.
A cold front lays across eastern and southern Montana.
00Z upper air analysis/GOES-16 Satellite trends indicate an upper level ridge axis located over the Rockies, a trough axis extending from the East Coast back through the Tennessee/Lower Mississippi Valleys and into the Southern Plains.
338 AM EDT Tue Aug 23 2022 A high pressure system west of the region will influence the Ohio Valley with generally sunny skies, light wind, and a dry forecast.
Several impulses are noted in the upper level flow across the forecast area by late morning through this evening as a weak trough shifts across the area overnight and into tomorrow.
The temperature forecast today leans on the warmer RAP and HRRR models for highs in the mid 90s north and lower 90s south.
1200 AM EDT Tue Aug 23 2022 Drier conditions will exist overnight and Tuesday as weak high pressure builds across the region. Highs climb into the lower 80s with warming H8 level.
921 PM MDT Mon Aug 22 2022 9PM Update: Updated model guidance had the low tonight run a little warmer and the high tomorrow run a little cooler so those were updated accordingly. Otherwise expect increasing chances of rain through the week and cooler temperatures. A weak cold front still looks to drop south across the area late this afternoon and evening. A much more unsettled pattern and slow-moving low pressure system still looks on track to bring in some monsoonal moisture for the next several days.
324 AM CDT Tue Aug 23 2022 High pressure was located over the Midwest resulting in light winds and quiet conditions. Nice late August weather is expected with highs in the low/mid 80s, comfortable humidity, and light winds.
05Z observations are showing weak upper level flow in the central plains with a ridge in the Rockies and a trough by the Great Lakes. At the surface a large area of high pressure is extending from Colorado to Iowa keeping the weather conditions quiet across Kansas with light winds and clear skies. A tranquil weather pattern will persist this week, with upper level ridging over the Rockies and high plains, and not much in the way of westerlies across the central or northern Rockies to induce strong south winds.
335 AM CDT Tue Aug 23 2022 A cold front will move through the state today, bringing chances for showers and thunderstorms, especially in the southwest and central. Aloft, broad ridging remains in place across the Rockies and plains, with disorganized troughing over the Pacific Northwest. The CAPE/shear parameter space is on the low side for the probability for severe weather, however adequate for a few strong thunderstorms approaching severe criteria.
05Z observations are showing weak upper level flow in the central plains with a ridge in the Rockies and a trough by the Great Lakes. At the surface a large area of high pressure is extending from Colorado to Iowa keeping the weather conditions quiet across Kansas with light winds and clear skies.
1233 AM CDT Tue Aug 23 2022 (This afternoon through Tuesday night) NW flow aloft with lessening influence from the departing shrtwv trof to the e. The primary mid-level theta-e ridge axis has shifted s as has the front, but RH at 7h and 5h will be some what slow to decrease across the PB. Elsewhere storms that form this afternoon will slowly decrease into the evening, but the possibility of a SHRA/TSRA will remain thru the night across the Trans Pecos where said theta-e ridge will reside. Mid-level theta-e ridge lingers INVOF Rio Grande and low order PoPs are justified there into Wed AM, again NBM is too high.
As the broad surface cyclone continues it's very gradual movement across central Texas, some precipitation will likely wrap around the northern portion of the cyclone through northeastern Texas Tuesday morning. 75"), diurnal destabilization of the atmosphere, and supported by the surface cyclone and a weak, slowly moving upper level trough axis. Widespread cloud cover will keep the high temperatures in the 80s across the region, while high surface dewpoints will help keep the overnight lows in the upper 60s and low 70s.
235 AM MDT Tue Aug 23 2022 A cold front will continue to drift slowly south across the region today. It will bring cooler temperatures with it. A somewhat unstable atmosphere will allow for chances for thunderstorms with the best chances in the southwest which will be closer to the cold front.
High pressure over the region will produce hotter temperatures and limited thunderstorm chances focused on the mountains today.
313 AM EDT Tue Aug 23 2022 High pressure over the Midwest drifting toward the Ohio Valley will provide us with quiet late summer weather today and tonight. After patchy fog burns off this morning the rest of the day will be partly cloudy with light breezes and afternoon temperatures peaking in the low to mid 80s. just a bit cooler than normal. Due to a deep upper low located over NE Canada, general longwave troughing is expected to cover most of the eastern third of the US through the end of this week.
651 AM EDT Tue Aug 23 2022 A high pressure system west of the region will influence the Ohio Valley with generally sunny skies, light wind, and a dry forecast.
907 AM EDT Tue Aug 23 2022 A high pressure system west of the region will influence the Ohio Valley with generally sunny skies, light wind, and a dry forecast.
648 AM EDT Tue Aug 23 2022 High pressure will allow for a couple of drier days and seasonal temperatures into Wednesday.