Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
426 AM EDT Sun Apr 16 2017 Showers and thunderstorms will develop across the region today in advance of a cold front, and will linger into tonight. High pressure and dry weather will return to the area for the beginning of the work week. Convergence then increases from the nw as a cold front works into the region this afternoon. A storm or two could be lingering in nrn KY early Monday, before the pcpn finally gets shunted south as high pressure builds in. Temperatures Monday will be cooler, ranging from the upper 60s in the north to the lower 70s in the south.
Low pressure will move from central Saskatchewan into southeast Manitoba during the 06Z TAF period. Increased moisture and colder air behind a cold front dropping south will bring a period of MVFR ceilings to KISN and KMOT Sunday morning.
Model soundings indicate an adiabatic profile in the lower layers today. Another upper level low pressure system was located over southern SASK with two short waves embedded. Another upper level low pressure system was located off the CA coast. Remainder of week to be dry as ridging amplifies over the Rockies. Main activity late in week will be over cntrl US as upper low in southern stream moves across the midwest. Looking to see the highest winds by afternoon, then they should begin to die down again in the evening.
207 AM EDT Sun Apr 16 2017 High pressure ridging into the forecast area from the Atlantic will weaken Monday as a cold front moves into the area.
330 AM MDT Sun Apr 16 2017 A flat upper level ridge of high pressure will be over Colorado through tonight with a light to moderate westerly flow aloft. Overall the sfc pressure gradient across the area will be fairly weak, so strongest winds in the mountains will be near the ridgetops and diurnally driven in the valleys. Across the northeast plains, generally dry and mild with temperatures around 5 degrees warmer than yesterday. Generally southeasterly winds across the plains today which should help induce a Denver cyclone.
Chances of rain showers and isolated thunderstorms will then increase late tonight into Sunday as a cold frontal boundary tracks through the region. Highs on Sunday will be cooler, but still above normal for mid April.
328 AM CDT Sun Apr 16 2017 Cold front over northeastern Iowa extends southwestward through northwestern Missouri as of 07z. Despite clouds, precipitation and northerly winds, will still see highs in the low to mid 70s today. Cooler temps expected, but still a bit above normal for this time of year, in the upper 40s to upper 50s. The slower movement of the cold front means that afternoon redevelopment of SHRA/TSRA near the front after 18z may affect the St.
305 AM CDT Sat Jul 1 2017 Early this morning, isolated showers were coincident with a surface cold front that was moving south and east. Behind this cold front, drier and cooler air was located.
SHORT TERM (Today through Sunday): 700mb ridge across the northwest Gulf of Mexico this afternoon will move little tonight through Sunday. A 30kt low level jet across the lower Texas coast will provide another breezy afternoon across the Rio Grande valley and northern ranchlands today.
This will draw warmer air into the region with H85 temperatures pushing well above 20C. As the low level jet increases and with a return of higher theta-e air, elevated thunderstorms should be possible along the Oklahoma/Kansas border from Clark to Barber counties sometime Saturday night.
The upper level pattern generally features a building ridge over the intermountain region. The atmosphere will be unstable this afternoon, especially over the higher terrain, but there is not much moisture available, so any thunderstorms that do form will produce little if any rain. so the area where isolated thunderstorms are possible was trimmed back to show the possibility only in the highest portions of the central Idaho mountains.
247 AM EDT Sat Jul 1 2017 A surface analysis early this morning showed a loosely defined cold front across western Indiana into far southern Illinois. As a weak high pressure builds across the area late this evening, winds are again forecast to be light and variable. After morning fog burns off, Sunday is shaping up to be a drier and warmer day as high pressure continues to build across the lower Great Lakes and Ohio Valley.
1115 PM MDT Fri Jun 30 2017 An upper level trough with embedded weather disturbance is now exiting the area to the east taking with it earlier showers and isolated thunderstorms. Low temperatures in the low to mid 50s. Northwest flow aloft continues Saturday night with an upper ridge over the Rockies. These winds draw moisture northward into the High Plains. As a disturbance works its way into the High Plains, showers and thunderstorms are anticipated to develop in the afternoon and evening.
Upper level ridging continues to build across the region today.
A weak and relatively quick- moving ride of high pressure will slide east of our region by this evening while an upper-level disturbance approaches SE Idaho from the west.
1255 AM CDT Sat Jul 1 2017 A mid-level vort is still helping to spark some showers across the central/south as a secondary frontolytic cold front is helping to spark some thundershowers heading into our central/north.
Model guidance has been suggesting for the last couple of days that a mid level ridge will build just south of the Florida Panhandle in the Eastern Gulf. The combination of the ridge and drier airmass should greatly reduce the thunderstorm potential on Saturday. As a result, dropped PoPs around 15-20 percent across the board for Saturday from the previous forecast, and this might not be enough given anticipated position of the ridge. With dewpoints in the mid 70s, heat indices will reach into the low to mid 100s on Saturday afternoon. On Sunday the ridge will weaken and shift a little to the south of the region in the afternoon.
145 AM MDT Sat Jul 1 2017 An upper level trough with embedded weather disturbance is now exiting the area to the east taking with it earlier showers and isolated thunderstorms. Low temperatures in the low to mid 50s.
SPC/RAP mesoanalysis shows MLCAPE values around 1500 J/kg nosing into our SW zones with surface dewpoints in the low 70s. could still be an isolated shower through Sat morning (especially in the east) as main trough axis passes. Sunday still expected to be mainly dry though did add some low chance PoPs late in the afternoon for our northern counties with NAM and GFS insistent on some isentropic ascent/warm frontogenesis in right entrance region of decent upper jet streak swinging through the Great Lakes. Currently appears dry Thu with another cold front arriving sometime late in the week. Some improvement noted immediately upstream over far nw IN/ne IL behind upper trough axis. Otherwise tranquil Sat expected as weak ridging builds ewd from the plains with sfc winds veering to around 10kts mid day.
Water vapor imagery in conjunction with mean layer analyses from CIMSS indicate a deep anticyclone centered just west of the Florida Peninsula. If anything, this anticyclone has strengthened over the past day, based on last evening's RAOB analyses from the Gulf Coast. The low level high is centered northeast of Bermuda and reaches west southwest across the Florida Peninsula. High pressure centered northeast of Bermuda will reach west across the Florida Peninsula today through the remainder of the forecast period.
203 AM EDT Sat Jul 1 2017 A cold front will approach the region tonight into Saturday providing opportunities for showers and thunderstorms.
Before 7 am this morning, some showers and thunderstorms will continue mainly south of a weak surface cold front that extended from near Hollis to Guthrie to Cushing, Oklahoma as of 130 am. Sunday night, will monitor for the low potential for storms mainly over northern Oklahoma. Cannot rule out the potential that a complex or two of storms from the High Plains moves southeast and affects some places in Oklahoma and north Texas.
327 AM EDT Sat Jul 1 2017 Periodic shower and thunderstorm chances will continue until passage of a cold front later today. An upper trough is progged to advance from the Midwest to the Upper OH Valley/Great Lakes region this afternoon. Scattered showers and thunderstorms could redevelop along the upper trough and associated weakening cold front this afternoon.
158 AM EDT Sat Jul 1 2017 A cold front will approach the region tonight into Saturday providing opportunities for showers and thunderstorms.
A weak trough will move across the northern half of the state today, bringing with it just enough moisture and instability for afternoon/evening thunderstorms through Sunday.
Breezy southwest flow is expected as a pacific trough moves across the western U.
A surface analysis early this morning showed a loosely defined cold front across western Indiana into far southern Illinois. As a weak high pressure builds across the area late this evening, winds are again forecast to be light and variable. After morning fog burns off, Sunday is shaping up to be a drier and warmer day as high pressure continues to build across the lower Great Lakes and Ohio Valley.
354 AM CDT Sat Jul 1 2017 Water vapor imagery showed an upper low over the Manitoba Lakes region early this morning. This low will move into northwest Ontario by this evening continuing to Lake Superior by 12Z Sunday. Highs today will range from 65 to 70 over far northern Minnesota to the lower to middle seventies from the Brainerd Lakes region into northwest Wisconsin. Expect highs in the lower to middle seventies.
The temperature forecast will also be challenging due to clouds and rain, as well as the cold front moving into the region. Tonight Through Sunday Night Short term forecast will be based on convection trends, with the highest pops over north central and southern AR. Tonight, models are consistent, although the NAM has the most energy and hence convection, later tonight as the cold front gradually moves southeast into AR, and upper short wave energy moves over the region. Saturday continues to see the cold front sag into AR. Convection is expected to be focused over northern and central AR, with the highest POP and QPF.
With clouds around for much of the day in the north, highs will be mostly upper 60s while rest of the area will see 70s with far southeastern ND reaching the lower 80s where sun will be more prevelent and ground is quite a bit drier. High pressure over the area Sunday but enough moisture in the 850-700mb layer for likely cumulus development with daytime heating, especially NW Minnesota.
427 AM CDT Sat Jul 1 2017 High pressure is slowly moving southeast, with a weak area of low pressure noted over North Dakota. As such, have sided with the higher end guidance for high temperatures and wind speeds, along with the lower end guidance for surface dewpoints. GFS 700mb dewpoints are around +/- 0C, so surface dewpoints will crash into the low 40s. An upper ridge will dominate conditions for Sunday, while the low levels remain less favorable for mixing with a easterly wind. A wave will flatten the ridge, and southerly flow will increase humidity.
239 AM PDT Sat Jul 1 2017 High pressure off the West Coast will gradually build inland through the weekend for dry conditions in northeast California and western Nevada.
Surface and mid level ridge axis will continue to ease south just a bit over the next 24 hours, sliding from north of Cape Canaveral this morning into the southern half of the CWA by late tonight. Light surface to low level flow a tad either side of due southerly about the ridge axis will allow for another day of sea breeze dominant flow in the afternoon.
332 AM CDT Sat Jul 1 2017 Quiet weather for most of today with mostly sunny skies and temps in the lower to mid 80s. ESRL HRRR/RAP/HRRR/Highres NMM and Nam models all suggest that some convection could develop in central NE this afternoon by 20z along a developing warm front.
Mostly dry weather is expected to continue today across the region as the aforementioned trough passes through.
321 AM EDT Sat Jul 1 2017 An upper level trough of low pressure will pass through the area today. High pressure will remain anchored off the coast through the period, with typical summer pattern persisting across the region.
326 AM CDT Sat Jul 1 2017 Low pressure aloft was skirting along the international border. The upper level low will keep high temperatures in north central/ northeast areas below average (low 70s). While upper level ridging starts nudging into the southwest where above average highs are forecast (upper 80s).
449 AM CDT Sat Jul 1 2017 A longwave trof is slowly digging into the Mississippi Valley this morning. This trof is finally pushing the surface front which has been hanging up over Iowa down through our area. Should have good radiational cooling with temperatures dipping into the low to mid 60s in most locations.
A cold front may sag into the Ohio river valley this evening, but is expected to stall to our northwest, keeping the somewhat humid airmass in place. Sunday looks like it may stay dry as heights start to build allowing for a slightly warmer day.
342 AM MDT Sat Jul 1 2017 Upper level ridge of high pressure over the Great Basin this morning with a moderate northwest flow aloft over Colorado. Warmer temperatures this afternoon as airmass becomes well mixed but very little moisture to work with. Skies will become mostly clear tonight as high pressured ridge moves over western Colorado. There is a trend toward a little slower and drier with the Sunday trough. This could also produce an area of wind from the trough itself and/or convective outflow. The best chance of rain during the period looks like Sunday evening as the trough and whatever outflow winds there may be get into better moisture on the plains. After that, it is just hot under the ridge.
146 AM MDT Sat Jul 1 2017 An upper level trough with embedded weather disturbance is now exiting the area to the east taking with it earlier showers and isolated thunderstorms. Low temperatures in the low to mid 50s.
406 AM EDT Sat Jul 1 2017 A weak cold front will cross the area today. High pressure will build across the Ohio Valley tonight and move east on Sunday.
133 AM EDT Sat Jul 1 2017 Periodic shower and thunderstorm chances will continue until passage of a cold front later today. The upper trough is forecast to complete passage across the OH Valley/Great Lakes region late Saturday. Ensemble model solutions indicate broad upper troughing persisting across the NE CONUS through the first half of the week. A deeper trough is progged across the region by the end of the week with continued shower/storms chances.
540 AM EDT Sat Jul 1 2017 Periodic shower and thunderstorm chances will continue until passage of a cold front later today. An upper trough is progged to advance from the Midwest to the Upper OH Valley/Great Lakes region this afternoon. Scattered showers and thunderstorms could redevelop along the upper trough and associated weakening cold front this afternoon.
342 AM CDT Sat Jul 1 2017 The upper level trough responsible for yesterday's front will translate eastward into the Ohio Valley today with a high amplitude ridge from the desert southwest into the Canadian Rockies. Further west, the next trough axis is coming ashore the Pacific NW.
The subtropical ridge is anchored in the Atlantic and ridging into the northern gulf coast this morning which is providing the typical warm and moist onshore flow. A cold front has stalled from North Texas into Arkansas and then into the Ohio Valley. In the mid and upper lvls over the local area ridging is in place, but the ridge is centered to the east. The upper ridge is expected to break down late in the coming week which will allow for higher rain chances. High pressure over the region will keep winds light and onshore.
The second half of the week has a high chance to be hotter than the first half with high temperatures to approach 100 degrees, and there may be a few spots that surpass the 100 degree mark, outside of the lower valleys of north-central Idaho that will be well into the low 100s. high pressure, which could lead to afternoon convective activity during the latter half of the week, but confidence is low at this time.
333 AM CDT Sat Jul 1 2017 Low pressure aloft was skirting along the international border. The upper level low will keep high temperatures in north central/ northeast areas below average (low 70s). While upper level ridging starts nudging into the southwest where above average highs are forecast (upper 80s).
657 AM EDT Sat Jul 1 2017 An upper level trough of low pressure will pass through the area today. High pressure will remain anchored off the coast through the period, with typical summer pattern persisting across the region.
252 AM CDT Sat Jul 1 2017 Upper level trof axis from the Upper Midwest south into MO/KS will continue to move east this morning, and by 18z extend from the eastern Great Lakes south over the Ohio Valley, with a weak "cold" front to the Ohio River. Modest mid trop NW flow will persist with subtle waves within the flow after the stronger trof passes east.
An upper level trough that was moving into the upper Mississippi Valley will be tracking into the Ohio River Valley this afternoon. Although the position of the trough in combination with ample moisture in place locally would be such that numerous storms would develop, ridge of high pressure will suppress much of that development.
Mean layer (1000-500 MB) ridge will be across central Fl while a weak trough lingers across southeast Ga. Models indicate slightly drier air moves in across the region today with a light west to southwest flow as a large mid/upper high over the northeast Gulf of Mexico shifts northeast over the region.
355 PM CDT Wed Mar 28 2018 A deep positively tilted upper level trough over the western Southern Plains will continue to advance east tonight. The airmass south of this surface boundary has becoming increasingly unstable with temperatures nearing 80 degrees and dewpoints in the lower to middle 60s. The approach of the upper trough and surface wave may result in the low level boundary shifting back slowly to the north. The upper trough to the west will push through the region on Thursday bringing additional chances for showers and a few thunderstorms. Temperatures should remain seasonably mild into tomorrow ahead of the primary surface cold front.
Eventually, a cold front will work its way south shifting winds from southwesterly to northerly with winds 15-20 kts with gusts up to 25 kts at times starting around 06Z Thursday. Also made some adjustments to the overnight lows, as it looks like cloud cover may keep the eastern Panhandles warmer than anticipated. Lastly, pops have been readjusted to focus more on the areas that look to be more favorable for rain showers today, via the high resolution models.
545 PM CDT Wed Mar 28 2018 Surface map this afternoon has a low pressure system over western Ontario with a cold front extending from northeast to south central MN. The cold front pushes through this evening, but expected to come through dry with just some increase in cloud cover. High pressure builds in Thursday, settling in overhead Thursday night. Thursday expected to be sunny but a bit cooler with highs in the 40s. Partly cloudy skies will prevail Thursday night with the high overhead along with light winds. Otherwise, plan on lows in the lower to middle 20s.
SPC upper air analysis from this morning showed an upper level trough across the southwestern US into northern Mexico. This, paired with the surface outflow boundary and cold front draped northeast to southwest across the region, was the catalyst for the periods of showers and thunderstorms beginning last night and continuing into this afternoon. The cold front will continue to slowly move off to the southeast toward the Gulf Coast throughout the remainder of the afternoon and evening hours. However, some additional redevelopment of showers and storms are possible later this evening for areas east of Interstate 35 as the trough axis and accompanying vorticity maximum swings through south central Texas. Models project that the trough axis will be completely east of the region by early Thursday morning, at which point any chances for showers and storms will cease.
temperatures will be several degrees cooler than today. There will be a very good chance for showers ahead of a cold front Thursday night.
324 PM EDT Wed Mar 28 2018 High pressure will remain offshore today. A weak cold front will approach today and then stall across our area tonight. This stalled boundary will push north as a warm front on Thursday.
322 PM CDT Wed Mar 28 2018 Cold front will continue to track southeast across northwest Iowa this afternoon, exiting the area over the next few hours. Upper level trough swings across the northern Plains late tonight into Thursday evening. With a cooler airmass in place and clouds increasing from the west, temperatures will be cooler than today.
The mean ridge position will remain off the coast into Thursday before weakening and moving into the Great Basin this weekend.
Appears that some frontogenesis has been occurring over the area this afternoon (indicative of the lower temperatures west), and that along with the potent upper level jet, will provide scattered to widespread thunderstorms. Clearing on Thursday with the trough moving across, and it looks like there will be one more warm day as westerly downslope winds add to the temperature rises.
207 PM EDT Wed Mar 28 2018 A front with waves of low pressure oscillates in the vicinity through Thursday with periods of heavy rain, then pushes through Thursday night.
336 PM EDT Wed Mar 28 2018 High pressure over the region should keep the weather quiet for the remainder of the week. A 500 mb trough, currently over the Plains, will slowly push eastward over the next several days. By the weekend, the trough, and a strong 250mb jet, will be over the eastern seaboard. The surface a Bermuda high, which is currently bringing the southeast wind to South Florida, will weaken as a trough pushes eastward, influenced by the afore mentioned trough.
245 PM EDT Wed Mar 28 2018 A frontal boundary currently stretches from the eastern Great Lakes back through the Lower Mississippi River Valley. This boundary will slowly push east through the period, along with a pre-frontal trough. The pre-frontal trough should begin to impact the western portions of the CWFA during the late afternoon/early evening hours. Moist southerly flow will continue to funnel low level moisture into the region ahead of the cold front. Models currently have the active pre-frontal trough approaching Thursday evening. If this holds, surface instability will be on the wane as the trough moves through. Behind aforementioned cold front, expect dry high pressure to dominate the region through the weekend.
220 PM MDT Wed Mar 28 2018 Upper trough is sitting across the central CONUS with strong ridging developing across the western third.
High pressure will build over the region during the next few days with a warming and drying trend. Another quiet weather day across central California as a high pressure ridge just off the coast remains in control. Sunny skies prevail and temperatures across the San Joaquin Valley are generally running 5-8 degrees warmer than this time yesterday.
Downstream of that, there remains a deep and warm full latitudinal ridge ensconced across the Eastern CONUS, the entire Gulf of Mexico, including South Florida and the Florida Keys. At the surface and in the lower to middle levels(Surface to 700 mb), latest satellite imagery overlaid with both marine and land surface observations and analysis as of 200 pm, detail a slowly filling yet powerful late winter like ocean storm over the NW Atlantic near 40N and 61W. West of that a cool frontal system is draped from Western New York State down to Central Texas, but 1205 mb ridging is in place across from 29N 70W westward to across Northern Florida.
301 PM EDT Wed Mar 28 2018 Weak high pressure will build over the area tonight and will gradually shift east on Thursday as low pressure approaches from the southwest. Low pressure will track northeast through eastern New York and into northern New England Thursday night.