Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1225 PM EDT MON MAY 9 2016 LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE GULF OF SAINT LAWRENCE MONDAY WITH WINDY CONDITIONS.
635 AM CDT MON MAY 9 2016 WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/RAP 500MB ANALYSIS/RADAR MOSAIC EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWING A CLOSED LOW OVER EASTERN WY/CO WITH A WING OF PV- ADVECTION AND ASSOCIATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORMS ROTATING NORTHWARD THROUGH EASTERN NEB. QUITE OVER OUR LOCAL AREA RIGHT NOW UNDER A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WITH SOME CONVECTIVE MID/HIGH CLOUD DEBRIS OVERHEAD. WILL SEE AN UPTICK IN SHOWER/ISOLATED THUNDER CHANCES TONIGHT AS THAT CLOSED LOW OPENS INTO A TROUGH AND LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION. INCREASING LIFT/MOISTURE FEED AHEAD OF THE TROUGH COULD PRODUCE ANY WHERE FROM 1/10 INCH TO LOCALLY 3/4 INCH OF RAINFALL. TAPERING OFF TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO LIFT THROUGH THE REGION.
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CAUSE SURFACE WINDS TO SHIFT TO NORTHWEST BY 18Z AT NORTHERN TERMINALS. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE AREA SEPARATES DRY AND COOL AIR WITH TEMPS IN THE 40S ACROSS THE NW FROM WARMER TEMPS IN THE 50S AND 60S ACROSS THE SE.
1210 PM EDT MON MAY 9 2016 WARM FRONT WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TODAY.
NORTH WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE AGAIN TODAY, ESPECIALLY OVER THE WATERS SOUTH OF GOLD BEACH, AS A THERMAL TROUGH REMAINS PARKED ALONG THE COAST.
SOUTH FLORIDA LIES BENEATH THE NORTHEASTERN EDGE OF MIDDLE AND UPPER RIDGING CENTERED OVER CENTRAL AMERICA. AT THE SURFACE AND IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE LEVELS. SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE KEYS LIE BENEATH THE WESTERN EDGE OF A SURFACE ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE WEST CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THE LOWER TO MID TROPOSPHERE IS DRY WITH COLUMNAR PWAT AT. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE ISLANDS ARE IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S. AND 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND GUSTY FROM MOLASSES REEF DOWN TO THE LOWER KEYS. THE WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL REMAIN STATIONARY THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE DAY.
948 AM EDT MON MAY 9 2016 A WARM FRONT NEAR THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY THIS MORNING WILL LIFT SLOWLY NORTHWARD INTO TUESDAY.
FRONT LIFTS FARTHER NORTH NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TONIGHT.
AN UPPER LOW HAD MOVED INTO THE IDAHO PANHANDLE THIS MORNING.
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 82 60 84 65 / 0 10 30 30 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 81 59 82 63 / 0 10 30 40 OAK RIDGE, TN 81 60 81 63 / 0 20 40 40 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 79 55 80 59 / 20 10 20 40.
Some patchy areas may have MVFR ceilings for a few more hours this morning; however, a cold front will push across West Central Texas today and create gusty winds, from mainly the southwest, from mid morning until around sunset this evening.
959 AM EDT MON MAY 9 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL INTO MID WEEK.
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL TREND DOWNWARD TODAY AS THE LOW MOVES NORTHEASTWARD WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS TODAY AND TUESDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN ARIZONA.
1059 AM CDT MON MAY 9 2016 MIXING OF HIGH MOMENTUM MID LEVEL AIR ASSOCIATED WITH MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING OVER THE CNTL AND SRN PLAINS HAS BEEN QUITE EFFICIENT THIS MORNING. THE UPPER LOW THAT HAS BEEN THE TOPIC OF DISCUSSION FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS IS SWINGING ITS WAY OVER CENTRAL NM/CO AND WILL CONTINUE A NORTHEASTWARD PUSH THROUGH THE DAY. RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL BE A LITTLE ON THE HIGHER SIDE AS SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE HIGHER THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY BEHIND THE DRYLINE. UPPER LEVEL FLOW TONIGHT WILL TURN MORE ZONAL AS THE LOW EXITS THE REGION WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR THINGS TO REMAIN QUIET INTO TOMORROW MORNING. ALDRICH A MERGER OF TWO LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL BE ONGOING TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS IN A COMPLEX METAMORPHIC EVENT.
1257 PM EDT MON MAY 9 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL INTO MID WEEK.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER THE OR/WA/ID BORDER CONTINUES TO DIVE SOUTHEAST TODAY. WITH COOLER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THIS LOW.
938 AM EDT MON MAY 9 2016 A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH TO THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY.
WINDY AFTERNOON AHEAD AS AREA REMAINS BETWEEN DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. A FEW SPRINKLES POSSIBLE OVER AREA THIS MORNING BUT RAIN CHANCES LOOKING SPARSE AS MOISTURE SOUNDING REMAINS ON THE LOWER SIDE THIS MORNING AND IN LINE WITH LAST EVENING SOUNDING RUN. EARLY MORNING SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE EAST COAST OF FL MAINTAINING A SRLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA. WHILE LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER THE SRN PLAINS AND MAINTAINS A GOOD GRADIENT OVER THE REGION.
PERSISTENT EASTERLY DRAINAGE FLOW OFF THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL SUPPLY A STEADY FEED OF LOW LEVEL DRY AIR. AN OLD MIDLEVEL CYCLONE CIRCULATION WILL EVENTUALLY LIFT NORTHWARD INTO SECTIONS OF NORTHERN ILLINOIS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. AS MOISTURE AXIS/850-700 MB THETA-E RIDGE ENCOMPASSES SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CWA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE HARD PRESSED NOT TO RISE INTO THE 60S EVEN WITH UNFAVORABLE COOLER EASTERLY FLOW.
620 AM CDT MON MAY 9 2016 AT H5 RIDGE OFF THE WEST COAST EXTENDING INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA. TROUGH INTO MONTANA AND NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH FROM EASTERN MONTANA INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SHARP RIDGE FROM ILLINOIS INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA WITH CLOSED LOW OVER THE NORTHEAST CONUS. COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIES ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND WILL DEVELOP THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE EASTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON WITH COLD POOL ALOFT. THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE MOVING EAST THROUGH MONTANA.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE HILL COUNTRY BACK INTO NORTHERN MEXICO WITH A WEAK IMPULSE SOUTHWEST OF LAREDO. WILL CONTINUE CHANCE POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING WITH DRYING EXPECTED FOR THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES NORTHEAST. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FORMED OVER THE COASTAL BEND IN THE WAKE OF THIS MORNINGS CONVECTION THAT HAS MOVED OFFSHORE.
828 AM PDT MON MAY 9 2016 After some lingering clouds today, dry and warmer weather is expected this week.
WE HAVE ALSO LOST ANY NW COMPONENT UP TO H25 AS LONG WAVE TROUGH REMAINS SITUATED OVER THE WRN CONUS. /ISSUED 403 AM CDT MON MAY 9 2016/ AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CROSSING THE ROCKIES IS OPENING UP AND WEAKENING WHILE IT MOVES NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL CAUSE THE UPPER RIDGE OVERHEAD TO FLATTENING AND SUPPRESS SOUTH.
1015 AM EDT MON MAY 9 2016 CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL INCREASE TODAY INTO TOMORROW IN ADVANCE OF A WARM FRONT. WITH HIGHS RANGING BETWEEN THE MID 50S AND LOW 60S TODAY AND THE LOW 60S TO LOW 70S ON TUESDAY.
227 PM EDT SAT APR 16 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP SUNNY SKIES AND WARM SPRING TEMPERATURES OVER NEW YORK AND PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THE DEEP UPPER LOW OVER NORTHWEST NEW MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT TO THE NORTH INTO WESTERN COLORADO BY SUNDAY EVENING. AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK WILL BE ROUNDING THE EAST SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS OF WEST TEXAS ON SUNDAY WHILE A JET MAX IN THE SUBTROPICAL JET WILL MOVE OUT OF MEXICO INTO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. BUT FOR NOW KEPT THE HIGHER POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES WHERE MODELS DEPICTED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AXIS THROUGH THE NIGHT.
THE UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN GENERALLY STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH A SLOWLY MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY INCHING CLOSER TO OUR REGION.
DEFINITELY A DIFFICULT FORECAST FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND AS MODELS NOW SHOW THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTH THIS EVENING AND THEN RETROGRADING WESTWARD AS IT MOVES TOWARDS WYOMING LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE OVER SOUTHERN WYOMING OR JUST SOUTH OF THE WY/CO BORDER BY LATE SUNDAY.
314 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016 CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES INVERTED TROUGH/FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TOWARDS NORTHERN MINNESOTA. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES DEEP TROUGH FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL AGAIN BE ON THE INCREASE AS UPPER LOW MEANDERS NORTHWARD WITH THE NEXT WAVE PUSHING THROUGH AND ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASING. MODELS ARE HAVING SOME TROUBLE POSITIONING THE HIGHER OPPORTUNITY FOR PRECIPITATION SO WILL KEEP THE GREATER CHANCES MAINLY OVER SOUTHERN LOCATIONS. WITH WARMER AIR WRAPPING IN. UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO LOITER OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK BRINGING CONTINUED CHANCES FOR PRECIPIATION. DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN AROUND THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS UPPER LOW FINALLY DECIDES TO SCOOT OFF TO THE EAST. BUT THE LOW STRATUS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE.
AS UPPER RIDGE HOLDS OVER THE AREA DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS THE ATMOSPHERE OVER MIDDLE TN WILL REMAIN QUITE DRY.
1223 PM MDT SAT APR 16 2016 PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE NORTHWEST COLORADO AND EAST CENTRAL UTAH HAS COME IN WEAKER THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LOW A TAD BIT SOUTH OF EARLIER PROJECTIONS. SNOW LEVELS HAVE FALLEN IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH CORTEZ INDICATING LIGHT SNOW AS OF 0307 MDT. DO NOT ANTICIPATE EXPANDING WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS INTO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO SHIFT THE NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY. AS THE LOW SHIFTS A TIGHT SURFACE AND MID-LEVEL GRADIENT FORMS OVER NORTHWEST COLORADO AND EASTERN UTAH.
/ISSUED 725 AM EDT SAT APR 16 2016/ UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS ESSENTIALLY LOCKED IN PLACE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A LARGE BLOCKING PATTERN HAS EVOLVED. FORTUNATELY FOR US WE GET PARKED UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE WHICH SHOULD SEE US CLEARING OUT THROUGH THE DAY TODAY INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS THE WEAK UPPER LOW THAT WAS TRAPPED UNDER THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND LOSE ITS IDENTITY. MOSTLY CLEAR AND DRY SUNDAY UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE WITH MODERATING EASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW KEEPING TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.
147 PM EDT SAT APR 16 2016 STRONG AND PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST AND GREAT LAKES WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER SUNNY AND WARM DAY ON SUNDAY.
BLOCKING UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH INSUFFICIENT MOISTURE OR FORCING FOR ANY PRECIPITATION. 19Z TEMPS ARE AT LEAST A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY.
315 PM EDT SAT APR 16 2016 A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH CLEAR SKIES AND MILD TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY.
POSITIVE TILT UPPER RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS.
313 PM EDT SAT APR 16 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND PROVIDING DRY AND QUIET WITH. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER EACH DAY.
Temperatures will mainly be in the lower 50s overnight.
418 PM EDT SAT APR 16 2016 STRONG AND PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST AND GREAT LAKES WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER SUNNY AND WARM DAY ON SUNDAY.
BREEZY CONDITIONS PERSIST BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS AND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS. HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE REGION AND RESULTING IN THE ONGOING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. RAIN CHANCES WILL TREND DOWN FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AS AFOREMENTIONED MID/UPPER LOW TRAVERSES EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS AND INTO THE GREAT LAKE REGION YIELDING A DRIER WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT FOR OUR AREA. THE NORTHWEST GULF WILL REMAIN BETWEEN STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS RIDGING INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. AND LOW PRESSURE OVER EAST TEXAS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT ADVANCES EAST OF THE REGION AND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AREA EDGES NORTH.
A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM IMPERIAL NEBRASKA. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER NORTHWEST NEW MEXICO. THIS MEANS OUR REGION WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER AND THUS MORE UNSTABLE THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST RUNS. CURRENTLY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IN SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO.
UPPER LOW LOCATED IN THE FOUR CORNERS AREA HAS BEEN SLOW TO PUSH EAST ALLOWING THE MAIN MOISTURE FEED TO BE RATHER STATIONARY ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS AND CENTRAL DAKOTAS.
324 PM EDT SAT APR 16 2016 DRY HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL GUARANTEE SEVERAL MORE DAYS OF WARM. 12Z KILN RAOB SAMPLED A VERY DRY AIRMASS WHICH IS YIELDING AMPLE SUNSHINE AS DEEP LAYER RIDGE REMAINS CENTERED ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY IN CLASSIC OMEGA-BLOCK PATTERN. AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE MASSIVE MID LEVEL RIDGE /CLOSED 582DM ANTICYCLONE OVER MICH/OHIO/ MOVES VERY LITTLE THROUGH THE NIGHT. EXPECT DRAINAGE AREAS TO REALLY FALL OFF QUICKLY TONIGHT INTO THE LOW-MID 40S /CENTRAL OHIO/.
IN FACT 582DM RIDGE BUILDS SLIGHTLY WESTWARD TOWARDS WI WITH SFC/850 HIGH CENTER SETTLING A BIT WEST TOWARDS THE ERN GRT LAKES. WITH SLIGHTLY MORE MOISTURE MAY SEE MORE CU POP UP AGAIN AWAY FROM THE COOLER INFLUENCE OF THE LAKE.
AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH SPINNING OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL KEEP OUR CONDITIONS MOSTLY SUNNY AND WARM ACROSS THE MID STATE TODAY. WITH A LARGE UPPER LOW OVER THE SW CONUS THOUGH.
125 PM EDT SAT APR 16 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP SUNNY SKIES AND WARM SPRING TEMPERATURES OVER NEW YORK AND PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THE BLOCKING PATTERN RESPONSIBLE FOR THESE CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN STAGNANT THROUGH SUNDAY. THE BLOCKING PATTERN WITH A RIDGE DOMINATING THE GREAT LAKES WILL GIVE WAY TO NW NRN STREAM FLOW AND A FRONT INTO THE REGION AS A REX BLOCK DEVELOPS TO THE WEST SUN INTO MON.
1226 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016 A prominent omega block will take hold today from the CONUS into the western Atlantic with the MS Valley and OH/TN Valley dominated by the upper ridge portion of the block. This pattern will maintain a low level anticyclone across the eastern U. Weather will be seasonably warm and tranquil with high temperatures today comparable to yesterday, and highs on Sunday a tad warmer than today.
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY WINDS TO SOUTHEAST ARIZONA THIS WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BRING DRY CONDITIONS WITH A STRONG WARMING TREND THROUGH MOST OF THE COMING WEEK. SOME CONVECTION FIRING AROUND THE CORE OF THE LOW BUT A LITTLE BIT OF MID LEVEL STABILITY BEHIND A CONVECTIVE SPOKE IN EASTERN NEW MEXICO IS KEEPING A LID ON THINGS FOR THE WHITE MOUNTAINS SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON. THE FURTHER WEST AND SOUTH YOU GO FROM THE LOW. MUCH COOLER AIRMASS AND LESS WIND OVERNIGHT. WE MAY SEE ISOLATED LOCATIONS DROP BRIEFLY NEAR FREEZING IN COLDEST EASTERN VALLEYS(PORTIONS OF COCHISE COUNTY). HIGH PRESSURE WILL GUIDE TEMPERATURES BACK WELL ABOVE AVERAGE BY MID WEEK WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S FOR EASTERN AREAS AND LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S FOR WESTERN AREAS.
TEMPERATURES ARE AVERAGING IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S WITH MOSTLY EAST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH. A FORMIDABLE AND EXPANSIVE REGION OF HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE GARDEN STATE OF NEW JERSEY. WITH A RIDGE NOSING INTO THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST UNITED STATE AND DOWN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.
WINDS ARE GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTHEAST AT LESS THAN 10 KTS WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES INVERTED TROUGH/FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TOWARDS NORTHERN MINNESOTA. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES DEEP TROUGH FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL AGAIN BE ON THE INCREASE AS UPPER LOW MEANDERS NORTHWARD WITH THE NEXT WAVE PUSHING THROUGH AND ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASING. MODELS ARE HAVING SOME TROUBLE POSITIONING THE HIGHER OPPORTUNITY FOR PRECIPITATION SO WILL KEEP THE GREATER CHANCES MAINLY OVER SOUTHERN LOCATIONS. WITH WARMER AIR WRAPPING IN. UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO LOITER OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK BRINGING CONTINUED CHANCES FOR PRECIPIATION. DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN AROUND THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS UPPER LOW FINALLY DECIDES TO SCOOT OFF TO THE EAST.
232 PM MDT SAT APR 16 2016 THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INTO COLORADO TONIGHT AND NUDGE TOWARD SOUTHERN WYOMING SUNDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN THE AREA INDICATE THE DRY LAYER AND A CHANCE FOR LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE. MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S IN THE FAR WEST FA TO THE UPPER 40S IN THE EAST. MAX TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S IN THE WESTERN FA TO THE MID 50S IN THE EAST. UPPER LOW WILL BE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN COLORADO 00Z/SUNDAY AND ONLY SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH MIDWEEK.
ADDED SLEET TO THE FORECAST OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE SINCE WARM AIR ADVECTION JUST OFF THE SURFACE WILL INCREASE TEMPS JUST BELOW 700MB A FEW DEGREES ABOVE FREEZING TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT. THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY PIVOTS FROM NORTHERN NEW MEXICO TO SOUTH CENTRAL COLORADO WITH DECENT UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION AND DEEP LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE AFFECTING OUR COUNTIES. UPPER LOW MOVES EVER SO SLOWLY NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL COLORADO WITH A VORT LOBE OF ENERGY. UPPER LOW SLOWLY PIVOTS TO THE NORTH ACROSS COLORADO WITH A BIT OF DRY SLOTTING WORKING INTO SOUTHEAST WYOMING WHICH MAY DECREASE COVERAGE AND THE INTENSITY OF RAIN AND SNOW.
340 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016 The closed upper low near the Four Corners region will be the main story through the next 5 days as it ever-so-slowly drifts and meanders eastward. Tonight into much of Sunday will remain dry as the upper low influence remains just to the west.
OTHERWISE S WINDS AND HIGHS IN THE LOW 70S HAVE BEEN COMMON FAR E. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER N NM/S CO WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT OUR WX THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY NIGHT. AND AT THAT POINT THE OLD UPPER LOW OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST SHOULD GET KICKED EAST. THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE FOR RAIN CHANCES AS IT MOVES JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH MID WEEK.
WINDY EAST- NORTHEAST WINDS ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA HAVE USHERED IN A COOLER AIRMASS, BUT ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA WE REMAIN IN LIGHTER FLOW.
WILL ALSO GO AHEAD AND CANCEL THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL AS A ROUND OF CALLS WERE MADE OVER THAT AREA WITH REPORTS THAT FREEZING RAIN HAS DIMINISHED AND NO IMPACTS ARE OCCURRING TO TRAVEL. FOR MID-MORNING UPDATE HAVE STRETCHED FREEZING RAIN CHANCES A BIT FURTHER SOUTHWEST TOWARDS THE MINOT AREA AS A REPORT CAME IN WITH SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OVER THAT AREA A BIT AGO. DEEPENING UPPER LOW WILL BRING A WINTRY MIX OR RAIN. SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN TO THE REGION TODAY. KEPT THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN PLACE AND AND ADDED A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY NORTH CENTRAL FOR THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.
135 PM EDT SAT APR 16 2016 DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE BUILDING OVER THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES WARMER TODAY AND THEN SLIGHTLY WARMER OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT.
High amplitude H50 omega blocking pattern will continue to hold through the period, with mid/upper lvl high pressure sprawling from the Great lakes down through through the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys.
244 PM EDT SAT APR 16 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED JUST TO THE NORTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
1236 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016 AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHED FROM THE TEXAS/NEW MEXICO AREA NORTHEAST THROUGH NORTHWEST MINNESOTA AND INTO ONTARIO. AREAS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR WILL BE COOLER. BUT SLOWLY AS THE BLOCKING PATTERN REMAINS.
1102 AM PDT SAT APR 16 2016 Strong high pressure will build over the Pacific Northwest this weekend.
EARLY MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY TOGETHER WITH GFS 500MB HEIGHTS AND WINDS SHOWED THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. AND UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE 4-CORNERS REGION. THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STATIONARY AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO BECOME CUTOFF.
UPPER AIR CHARTS FROM 12Z SHOWED A MID TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH STRETCHING FROM SRN SASKATCHEWAN SWD INTO NRN MEXICO. MOST RECENT MODEL INITIALIZATIONS AND CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A CLOSED LOW OVER NWRN NEW MEXICO.
541 PM EDT SAT APR 16 2016 A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH CLEAR SKIES AND MILD TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY.
1204 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016 Upper level high over the Great Lakes continues to keep our area clear this morning. Temperatures are already approaching 70 degrees in a few areas and have done some minor upward tweaks to the highs today, with some 80 degree readings possible, especially over the north half of the forecast area. A strong high pressure ridge aloft over the Midwest and eastern U. Winds will be 6 to 12 mph from the southeast most of the day due to a gradient between high pressure centered over the northeast U. and low pressure centered over New Mexico.
137 PM EDT SAT APR 16 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND PROVIDING DRY AND QUIET WITH. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER EACH DAY.
In central/west central MO/se KS where clouds were thinner, temperatures were in the lower/middle 70s. Vertical shear south and southeast of the upper low will increase and could serve to produce organized stronger convection if instability is available for updrafts, mainly Wed afternoon/evening.
19Z H5 ANALYSIS DEPICTS A LONGWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN SOUTHWARD TO NORTHERN MEXICO. MEANWHILE A BROAD RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS ROUGHLY FROM THE GULF COAST NORTHWARD THROUGH SOUTHERN QUEBEC WITH ANOTHER TROUGH LOCATED WELL OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. PROVIDING TRANQUIL CONDITIONS FOR THE LOCAL REGION ENTRENCHED UNDERNEATH THE UPPER RIDGE. 18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WITH WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH AS A RESULT. AND WILL LESSEN THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AS SURFACE PRESSURE SLIGHTLY INCREASES AND THE RIDGE BECOMES MORE CENTERED OVER THE REGION ALOFT.
441 PM EDT SAT APR 16 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY WITH DRY WEATHER AND WARMER TEMPERATURES.
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION AND DEVELOPING OFFSHORE FLOW WILL RESULT IN A ROBUST WARMING TREND THROUGH SUNDAY.
229 PM EDT SAT APR 16 2016 HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL.
226 PM PDT SAT APR 16 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE AREA AND PERSIST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS CREATING A WARMING TREND AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. SUNNY SKIES PREVAIL OVER CENTRAL CA THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE BEACHES TO THE MOUNTAINS THANKS TO A DRY OFFSHORE FLOW BETWEEN A STORM SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. EASTERLY WINDS HAVE BEEN GUSTY ALONG THE SIERRA CREST AND OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE KERN COUNTY DESERT TODAY WHERE LOCAL GUSTS OF AROUND 40 MPH HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. THE OFFSHORE FLOW WILL WEAKEN BY SUNDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INLAND OVER CALIFORNIA.
113 PM EDT SAT APR 16 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
FAIRLY SHARP INVERTED TROUGH FROM FAR SE CORNER OF ND NNE TO NEAR BDE WITH TIGHT BAROCLINIC RIBBON ON COLD SIDE OF TROUGH. ORGANIZING AREA OF RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH WAVE OVER NE WILL LIFT NORTH TONIGHT WITH FAVORED RAIN AREA ALONG AND WEST OF INVERTED TROUGH. SHOWALTER INDICES REMAIN AT OR A TAD BELOW ZERO IN THE WARM SECTOR AND IF ANYTHING CAN FORM EAST OF THE TROUGH CANNOT RULE OUT T. ANOTHER IMPULSE WILL BE ROTATING AROUND NORTHWARD DRIFTING UPPER LOW SUNDAY AND WITH LITTLE MOVEMENT OF CURRENT SURFACE BOUNDARY MORE RAIN ON TAP.
/issued 411 AM CDT SAT APR 16 2016/ (Today and Tonight) GFS/NAM/ECMWF all have the center of a large upper low over northwest New Mexico this morning, drifting northeastward over southern Colorado during the next 24 hours. Given good diurnal heating expected this afternoon under sunny skies over the Permian Basin, concomitant with a continuous stream of disturbances in the southwest flow aloft rotating around the upper low and over the dryline, thunderstorms will begin developing in earnest this afternoon. Lows tomorrow morning will be in the lower 60s, again under cloudy and rainy skies.
1240 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016 00Z UPPER-AIR ANALYSIS REVEALED A TROUGH OVER THE INTERIOR WEST WITH AN ASSOCIATED UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAK FROM THE GREAT BASIN INTO LOWER CO VALLEY. THIS JET STREAK WILL CONTINUE SEWD THROUGH THE BASAL PORTION OF THE PARENT TROUGH. AS THIS JET STREAK PIVOTS AROUND THE ERN PERIPHERY OF THE CLOSED LOW. ANOTHER JET STREAK/VORTICITY LOBE WILL PIVOT AROUND THE ERN PERIPHERY OF THE CNTRL ROCKIES UPPER LOW.
A BROAD WARM CORE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WAS CENTERED OVER LOWER MICHIGAN WITH FAIRLY DEEP ERLY FLOW (UP THROUGH ~500 MB) ACROSS THE TN VALLEY. A GRADUAL WEAKENING OF THE WINDS WILL OCCUR AS THE MID-ATLANTIC COMPONENT OF THE BROAD UPR RIDGE WEAKENS DURING THE DAY.