Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Flat upper ridge over the region is shifting slowly east in advance of deep low off the WA/BC coast. The backed flow aloft will allow for warmer great basin air to surge into our cwa, with 700mb temps rising toward +14C, yielding high temps back into the 90s today. Western upper low will then move into the northern Rockies bringing increasing ascent along with a strong Pacific cold front. The combination of convection along this strong cold front could bring strong winds to our north/east parts Friday evening, especially along a line from Hysham to Forsyth, Miles City and Baker, though it should be noted that the overall severe threat will be greater up in northeast MT. Temps on Friday will be pre-frontal and again quite mild with highs up to the lower/mid 90s across our central/east parts.
354 AM CDT THU JUN 23 2016 Upper level ridge currently centered over Texas is beginning to spread further east over the gulf coast states and into the southeastern conus. This high pressure will generally remain over the forecast area through the rest of this week and weekend. Subsidence from this ridge will keep rain chances at a minimum.
/Today/ A quiet and cooler day on tap for the DMX CWA. Throughout today, this high will propagate southeastward, making it into southeastern Minnesota by 00z Fri. With this high to our north much of the day, anticyclonic flow will drive much lower sfc dwpts into Iowa.
A robust high pressure ridge is still in place across the Desert Southwest but is beginning to weaken and shift a bit eastward more into the Southern Plains. Gusty west to southwest winds will develop across much of northern Nevada today as the Pacific Northwest trough constricts the pressure gradient across the region. Temperatures will moderate Friday as a cold front sweeps across northern NV before decelerating and washing out over Nevada Friday night. A plume of mid-level moisture will accompany the cold front across the northern part of the CWA but instability will be lacking for substantial convection. Departing upper level trough will keep northern and central Nevada in a westerly flow aloft.
High pressure will then build over the region Friday, with dry weather and warming temperatures through the weekend. Meanwhile, with the southern track even further confirmed, Central New York will actually see a decent amount of sun today and thus warmer temperatures than previously in forecast. The sky will clear quickly this evening, as high pressure begins to build in over the region. High pressure will settle over the region in the short term period, to provide dry weather.
1240 AM CDT THU JUN 23 2016 This afternoon there is an upper low currently over the northeast North Dakota/Manitoba border area that is generating showers and a few thunderstorms over northeast North Dakota/southern Manitoba/northwest Minnesota. This upper low and associated inverted trough axis at the surface will slowly side southeast tonight, spreading the showers and thunderstorms across the forecast area overnight tonight. Clouds should keep temperatures much warmer than this morning, and have kept mins in the upper 40s/low 50s tonight. The surface inverted trough axis will still extend up into northwest Wisconsin so we may have some lingering pops there, but features are very weak by that point and confidence is not very high and have decided to leave it out for now.
Upper-level heights are expected to slightly decrease today across West Texas as an elongated upper ridge across the Gulf coast gets slightly eroded on it's western flank. The upper level ridge currently over north Texas will lose some of its definition early this weekend leaving the region in a relative weakness in heights aloft.
415 AM EDT THU JUN 23 2016 Low pressure tracking across Ohio will keep thunderstorms in the forecast today into tonight.
Temps were of a wide range across nrn Michigan, ranging from the mid to upper 50s where there was some wind or downwind from the Lakes, to the lower 40s in those typically colder low lying areas. Skies will clear through the night with light winds resulting in many areas, especially the low lying areas, feeling 30+ diurnal ranges in temperatures. Lows will range from the those low lying areas getting down into the lower 40s, possibly some upper 30s, to the lower 50s in coastal locations or some higher exposed areas that may continue to feel some light wind.
Much warmer air will settle in for the weekend. As the entire system moves southeastward overnight, would expect the more unstable air to advect northward as the warm front shifts in that direction in response to movement of the surface wave near the heart of the MCS. Thursday's forecast will evolve depending on how fast the MCS moves thorough and how far south the aforementioned warm front can be driven southward. Quiet weather will return for Friday as high pressure builds down from the north.
High temperatures will be a little cooler across northeast MO and west central IL behind the cold front with surface dew points also gradually lowering across this area.
Have increased cloud cover this morning through midday/early afternoon with a slow trend to scatter this low moisture, owing to weak/baggy gradient in place.
High temperatures remain near normal with highs ranging from the lower 90s east to around 100 west.
651 AM EDT THU JUN 23 2016 Light showers should end today as a cold front and associated low pressure system move out of the area.
An upper level ridge continues to be dominant over the south central and southeastern states. The MCS was tracking southeast near a frontal boundary along the edge of the ridge. As the cold front gets closer late today convection should develop across northern sections and then sink south overnight. Very warm temperatures this morning will give way to hot temperatures in the lower to mid 90s and lows tonight will be mainly lower to mid 70s.
133 AM EDT Thu Jun 23 2016 A trough of low pressure over the area today, will continue to provide the North Country with some isolated showers on Thursday, mainly across northeast Vermont and in the higher terrain. Thereafter, high pressure will build over the area heading in to the weekend.
Strong mid/upper level high pressure will remain situated from the Desert Southwest through the Gulf Coast States to include north-central FL. Axis of low-mid level high pressure ridge is forecast to extend across the area into the weekend with slight weakening occurring SUN- MON. Remnant moisture from old frontal boundary will continue to push across the southern half of the peninsula through late week with the highest PoPs indicated on Fri then lower chances Sat.
Much warmer air will settle in for the weekend. Quiet weather will return for Friday as high pressure builds down from the north.
Will keep slight chance/chance PoPs through most of the day as models are consistent in showing weakening but persistent low-layer frontogenesis along the inverted trough as it slowly sags to the southeast through the day, with additional forcing for ascent from another weak short wave. Clouds and cooling 925 mb temperatures will produce highs in the low to middle 70s, with upper 60s along the lake with northeast winds. Skies clear as inverted trough exits to the south and drier air slowly spreads in with high pressure. High Mid level ridging continues to build in across srn WI.
The early morning convection over the northwest half of Wisconsin including central and north central Wisconsin were associated with a short wave trough dropping into the area. Progs in good agreement with slowly tracking the height 700/850 short wave trough southeastward very slow today.
Low- level moisture will continue to increase overnight so overnight lows again will be a touch warmer compared to what we saw this morning.
High pressure builds across the region Friday into the weekend with dry weather and warmer temperatures this weekend.
Higher dewpoints will likely pool across much of Northeast Arkansas, the Missouri Bootheel, and West Tennessee ahead of an approaching cold front. A back door cold front will sink southward to the KY/TN border around midnight.
Low pressure over Illinois is expected to push east to the EasternGreat lakes today. dragging a cold front southward to the Ohio river.
This short wave was also acting to suppress the upper level ridge.
Strong low-level warm advection and moisture transport will begin in earnest late tonight and Friday ahead of an upper level low making its way across the northern Rockies. Placement of thunderstorms varies somewhat among models, based upon warm frontal position.
A convective system working its way along a warm frontal boundary tonight into Thursday is expected to remain largely south of the forecast area, leaving the bulk of Western and North- Central New York dry and increasingly warm through the weekend. Otherwise, fair weather will prevail throughout the day Thursday as high pressure expands across the Great Lakes. 850mb temps will nudge up slightly, into the +10C to +12C range, so expect highs Thursday to run just a hair warmer than today's readings, in the mid to upper 70s. as a low amplitude ridge over the Northern Plains will gradually drift east across the Great Lakes region.
1038 PM PDT WED JUN 22 2016 Breezy and showery weather will return tomorrow and Friday with the arrival of a deep low pressure system. Friday has the potential to be particularly breezy and cooler with scattered thunderstorms. The core of the low will pass over Ern WA/N ID Friday promoting another afternoon and evening of showers and storms. /sb 06Z TAFS: A deep low pressure system approaches tonight and begins to track inland late Thursday.
At 00 UTC the surface analysis showed an area of high pressure off to the east of the Florida Peninsula. Strong upper ridge will remain in place over the southern CONUS through Friday, with high pressure continuing at the surface.
Otherwise fair weather will continue for the rest of the area as weak high pressure remains in place across the Great Lakes.
540 AM CDT THU JUN 23 2016 High pressure centered over TX bringing mostly vfr skc conditions areawide with only a few wispy cirrus clouds. /issued 442 AM CDT THU JUN 23 2016/ The moring water vapor imagery indicates upper ridging anchored over the Srn Plains ewd across the lower MS Valley and across the Gulf Coast states. S of this ridge. a weak inverted H700-500 trough depicted on the 00Z raob analysis still lingers over SE TX into Cntrl LA.
548 AM CDT THU JUN 23 2016 The central TN valley remains beneath a strong 500-mb ridge, which currently extends from the southern Rockies east-southeastward across the Gulf coast and into the Atlantic waters north of the Bahamas.
319 AM MDT THU JUN 23 2016 Satellite imagery showed plenty of outflow boundaries spread across the area overnight, seeding the lower atmosphere with some moisture. The broad coast-to-coast high pressure over the southern tier states will begin to be shunted to the south and east. A strong closed low will move out of the Pacific Northwest and move to western Montana by late Friday afternoon. Later Friday night the closed low will continue moving along the Canadian border and drag a cold front over NE Utah and NW CO.
120 AM EDT THU JUN 23 2016 Northwest flow will continue into the end of the week with slightly cooler than average conditions. Dry conditions with gusty winds this afternoon behind the cold front that passed earlier today. Highs struggling to get into the lower 70s. Weather conditions will be very quiet Thursday night into the weekend with high pressure at the surface and a deep layer of dry air dominating much of the Northeast.
332 AM CDT THU JUN 23 2016 Current large scale pattern shows deep cut off low just off the Pacific Northwest coast, slowly progressing eastward, with an upper level ridge centered over the Northern Plains. The deep upper level low reaches western Montana by 00z Sat with southwest flow aloft over our region while low level southerly flow continues advecting moisture northward.
Upper ridging will remain broadly draped over the southern ConUS today and should be strong enough to keep mountain convection at bay. High temperatures will be slightly cooler (by a degree or two) today with afternoon readings ranging from the mid 90s across the Permian Basin, Lower Trans Pecos and higher terrain to 100-105 across southeast New Mexico, Upper Trans Pecos and Rio Grande Valley. The upper ridge will begin to weaken overhead on Friday as an easterly wave/inverted trough edges northward toward SW TX. Lower heights along with persistent SE/upslope flow and mid level moisture in place along the higher terrain may be enough to generate some afternoon/evening convection across the mountain regions.
415 AM CDT THU JUN 23 2016 Deep layer ridge has flattened somewhat. The larger scale subsidence brought about by the mid level ridge and forecast BUFR soundings showing a resultant mid-level inversion acts to keep most of the area rain-free. /10 We expect to see at least a partial breakdown of the broad ridging that's been in place over the region heading into the weekend.
A broad upper level ridge will lie west to east across much of the southern U. The Panhandles will be on the northern side of this ridge. A weak zonal flow aloft will bring upper level short wave troughs across the region from time to time. At this time, it appears that the best overall chance of showers and storms will be across the northern half of the CWA further away from the center of the ridge.
Flow aloft turns to the southwest this evening as an upper low moves inland over the Pacific NW. The upper low moves east to Western Montana during the day on Friday with a strong cold front moving through West and Central Montana during the day. Atmosphere is expected to be capped ahead of the cold front during the afternoon so that explosive convection is likely when the cold front erodes the cap late Friday afternoon or Friday evening. A dry slot is expected late Friday Night as the upper low moves east along the Montana/Canada border.
509 AM EDT THU JUN 23 2016 Light showers should end today as a cold front and associated low pressure system move out of the area.
Temperatures will not be as warm today as an upper level trough approaches the Pacific Northwest. A cold front accompanying the trough will swing through the region tonight. The front will be followed by much cooler temperatures and breezy northwest winds of 15-25 mph with higher gusts Friday afternoon. The upper trough will mainly pass by to our north. The upper level trough exits to the east Friday night.
Therefore it's possible some localized areas could approach freezing.
The low level flow has strengthened slightly to around 15kt. Drier airmass should allow for slightly cooler temps tonight.
1003 PM PDT WED JUN 22 2016 Breezy and showery weather will return tomorrow and Friday with the arrival of a deep low pressure system. Friday has the potential to be particularly breezy and cooler with scattered thunderstorms. /sb 00Z TAFS: A deep low pressure system approaches tonight and begins to track inland Thursday.
329 AM PDT THU JUN 23 2016 Cooler daytime temperatures today and Friday down to near normal.
Temperature-wise, suspect dense cirrus emanating from current southern High Plains activity should tend to suppress afternoon heating today, so probably looking at highs mostly in the low-mid 90s, although upper 80s are possible portions of central KS. The highest chances should generally be between I-70 and northern OK. There may be lingering showers/storms Friday morning over central/east-central KS, but thinking mostly sunny and warmer temperatures will return by Friday afternoon, along with breezy south winds.
High pressure will then build over the region Friday, with dry weather and warming temperatures through the weekend. Meanwhile, with the southern track even further confirmed, Central New York will actually see a decent amount of sun today and thus warmer temperatures than previously in forecast. The sky will clear quickly this evening, as high pressure begins to build in over the region.
1104 PM MDT WED JUN 22 2016 Current surface analysis shows low pressure over southwest IA, with cold front well south and east of the cwa. High pressure is centered over eastern MT. Upper level analysis shows high pressure settling east over the Southern Plains, with a broad ridge covering the rest of the plains. Temps will drop into the 50s, with some 40s in valley locations and the higher Black Hills. Warmer air can be expected Thursday as south-southeast winds also bring in increasing low level moisture. Low pressure will develop across cntrl WY Friday with strong warm air advection bringing very warm temps to the area. A cold front is then progged to cross the area Friday night with gusty NW winds behind it.
442 AM CDT THU JUN 23 2016 The moring water vapor imagery indicates upper ridging anchored over the Srn Plains ewd across the lower MS Valley and across the Gulf Coast states. S of this ridge. a weak inverted H700-500 trough depicted on the 00Z raob analysis still lingers over SE TX into Cntrl LA.
A TUTT low will move onshore from the Gulf into nrn Mexico today, undercutting the E-W oriented upper ridge axis covering much of the southern US. The upper low will be of little significance to South Central TX today, and another hot day is expected with most highs in the mid 90s to near 100. The low is moving faster than models have previously depicted, so the slight chc PoPs for Friday may be too conservative. With some more morning stratocumulus expected to start the day Friday over this morning, high temps may be a degree or two cooler than those of today.
The mid level ridge that has brought hot and dry weather for the last few days will get suppressed to the south as a strong wave slides over the Ohio Valley. The mid level ridge will rebuild over the weekend.
That said, the lower level of the atmosphere remains quite dry, especially across the valleys and midslopes. Another round of afternoon showers and thunderstorms is expected on Thu as moisture remains trapped under the flat ridge that dominates will continue to dominate the area. As usual, the higher terrain will be favored. On friday a low pressure trough will approach from the northwest as it's parent low tracks from west to east along the U.
A cold front is due to bring cooler conditions to the forecast area tomorrow, with temperatures about 5 to 10 degrees lower than today.
/Issued 440 AM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016/ Weak ridging will build in today resulting in warmer temperatures and generally dry conditions. Forecast soundings suggest deep mixing and small MLCAPE values supportive of isolated convection, primarily focused near the Raton Ridge. Activity should shift east into Oklahoma overnight but kept low probabilities in for the entire area the whole night given proximity of upper trough still to our west and presence of at least weak ascent.
A strong upper ridge of high pressure along the U.
323 AM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016 High pressure will remain over the area through early Sunday. Weak low pressure may affect the region Sunday afternoon and Sunday night. Weak high pressure builds into the region for midweek. A cold front may push through the region at the end of the week. High pressure off the coast remains in control today pushing warm air into the region. with the eastern parts of the forecast area having the highest POPs/QPF.
as 500mb ridge builds over the region throughout the weekend. While there is a lack of forcing, diurnal heating may be enough to trigger a few convective showers and thunderstorms mainly over the higher terrain of the Adirondacks and South Central Vermont during the afternoon.
Highs will generally reach the low to mid 80s, with lows in the 60s. Drier air will filter in on Memorial Day with high temperatures once again reaching the low to mid 80s. Focus will shift back west late as slightly stronger short wave and surface cold front begin to approach. Upper low expected to lift northeast into the western Great Lakes on Sunday while dampening. Associated weak surface cold front will move across the area.
139 AM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016 High pressure will remain over the forecast area through tonight.
Water vapor imagery showing trough of low pressure across the Rockies into southern california. Sunday may be our driest day as we get brief ridging over the area.
Upper level ridging remains in place across the Central Gulf Coast through the period.
Minimal effects of the exiting upper trough to the northeast may allow isolated thunderstorms in southeast Oklahoma this afternoon during maximum heating.
Closed low rotating through the northern CWA currently, with showers and thunderstorms continuing across the NE counties, aided by diffluence aloft ahead of the incoming low. A relatively cold upper low was moving into west central Kansas this afternoon. Deep boundary layer moisture will be moving back into the high plains during the early part of the period. All the deterministic models due indicate at least a weak s/wv trough moving out late Sunday and these models generate an MCS looking signal. Additional chances for convection will exist until later in the week as it appears a strong s/wv trough drops southeast out of the northern branch of the westerlies.
The low moves north of the Lakes on Sunday with weak sfc cold front coming through in the afternoon around the diurnal peak of instability. Once the storms go through, drier and slightly cooler air moves in Sunday night and Memorial Day looks to be a pretty nice day.
The upper level trough moves into the Upper Midwest tomorrow forcing a cold front into the area. The upper trough will finally lift northeastward into the western Great Lakes and conditions dry out for Saturday and Sunday. Expect highs on Sunday in the low to mid 80s.
North country remains under upper level ridge today and tonight. and also in the higher terrain. lows tonight will be will generally be in the lower 60s across the area. Most active period then takes shape by later Sunday into Sunday night with the approach of a longwave trough and its interaction with deep tropospheric moisture. As mid level heights begin to fall by later in the day and toward evening expect a broader coverage of showers/storms to develop and continue into Sunday night as upper trough approaches.
Expect the tail end of an influential upper level short wave for the mid-section of the nation to continue affecting the Lower Mississippi Valley region through the day. Our region's weather will be dominated by short wave ridging aloft on Sunday, in between the departed disturbance passing way to our north and another short wave approaching West Texas in the afternoon.
First, a broad area of upper-level low pressure over the western Atlantic, with several +PV anomalies embedded from the FL/GA coast to the Bahamas. In-between, across most of the Southeast lies a narrow channel of high pressure. At the surface, ridging prevails with the notable exception of Tropical Depression Two in the western Atlantic.
The storms to the south will gradually shift to the east with the short wave trough rotating around the base of the closed low. Upper low will continue it's slow trek eastward through the afternoon and into Saturday with PoPs remaining elevated through the afternoon. The exception will be the far eastern portions of the CWA where a Theta- E boundary is draped from north to south just east of the upper low.
With an upper level low to the north, the Inland Northwest will experience a chance for showers over the Idaho Panhandle and the Washington mountains, especially on Sunday. As high pressure builds into the region, look for a warming trend for the work week. Some areas may see temperatures in the lower 90s by then. Today through Sunday: A disturbance from the trough is swinging through the Inland Northwest early this morning. Temperatures will generally be a few degrees warmer than yesterday. Then Sunday the trough axis swings through as a ridge begins to build to the west.
Weak high pressure will remain across the waters with winds shifting to easterly each night and then becoming onshore with the sea breeze each afternoon through the weekend.