Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1041 PM CDT Sat Jul 23 2022 A stout upper ridge continues to be centered over the Four Corners region, but it is beginning to build eastward and flatten out over the south-central plains. Meanwhile, an upper trough is entering the PNW, and will be the focus for potential rain chances later this weekend into the beginning of the work week. With the upper ridge strengthening and building across the central plains the period of hotter than normal temperatures looks to continue through the beginning of the week. The frontal zone will drift farther south on Sunday helping to keep much of northern Kansas in the low to mid 90s.
(Today through Monday) The subtropical ridge will continue to dominate over the southern half of the country during the short term period. The low level flow beneath the ridge is from the southeast and this pattern will also continue.
1053 PM CDT Sat Jul 23 2022 (This evening through Sunday) Quiet and warm conditions are expected to continue today into Sunday, as an upper level ridge continues to dominate the upper level pattern across the region.
and Monday Thunderstorms in East Central Wisconsin should end by about daybreak as the cold front moves into Lake Michigan. Scattered showers are possible across northcentral Wisconsin as the left exit region of a jet streak rotates around the upper trough.
Monday will be quiet, cooler and less humid. Earlier anchored/regenerative meso-beta elements with notable persistent feeders per satellite imagery over north central Illinois congeal into training clusters tracking southeast through broadly cyclonic longwave trough. Brief reprieve on Monday as frontal zone lays out over Ohio Valley with cooler less humid/middle to upper 50 dewpoints Monday afternoon. NOAM trough reloads midweek as northwest Canadian vortex drops southeast into Ontario.
Stationary front is holding across Northern Lower Michigan and Southern Wisconsin attached to low pressure centered over Western Iowa early this morning. So far stronger convection has remained south of our CWA closer to greater instability along the nose of the 850 mb theta E ridge axis. precip and the beginning of CAA behind the low center. Afternoon highs will range from the low to mid 70s in Eastern Upper and far Northern Lower Michigan to the mid 80s near Saginaw Bay. Dry wx will return to Northern Michigan tonight as high pressure begins to build into our region in the wake of the low and cold front. Some clearing will take place from west to east as cooler and drier air arrives. Low temps will cool into the low to mid 50s overnight.
(Sunday through Monday) Hot and dry conditions will continue to prevail for today as upper level ridging remains in place across our region. Monday could be a degree or two warmer than today, however, still only seeing those marginal heat index values.
1248 AM CDT Sun Jul 24 2022 A significant change in the weather pattern will occur this weekend with the passage of a cold front today. An upper level high positioned over the Four Corners and an upper level low over Hudson Bay creates zonal flow aloft. An disturbance will move east along this pattern, which along with the cold front will kick off thunderstorm development. High pressure remains over the Southwest U.
219 AM CDT Sun Jul 24 2022 Sub-tropical ridging continues to expand across the southern U.
E-W oriented upper ridge along 34 deg N latitude with a weakness in the ridge over the Carolinas.
Today will be noticeably cooler than any other day in July (would have to go back to June) as some locations may struggle to even warm above 70 (mainly in MN or where clouds remain thicker this afternoon). Climate averages for this time of year are generally in the lower 80s, so we will be about 10-13F below.
Circulation across the CONUS features a persistent subtropical ridge across much of the central and eastern U.
/Issued 1211 AM CDT Sun Jul 24 2022/ /Through Monday/ With the upper ridge axis elongating eastward through the Southern Plains, seasonably hot and dry weather will persist through the short term.
Cooler weather will start the new work week. Warm advection on the van of that system is expected to drive Sunday highs above the averages once again with readings once again on either side of 90 F for areas off the ridges. A cold front sliding across the Great Lakes is likely to generate more widespread thunderstorms over the Upr OH Region as the afternoon and evening progress. The severe threat will wane on Sunday night with the instability but a line of showers and storms is expected to accompany actual cold front passage. Long range model ensembles indicate that an active pattern will continue with southern Canadian low pressure and frontal interaction in the TN/OH Valley areas.
Expect highs to range from the lower 80s in northeast Nebraska to the lower 70s in southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa.
Some additional showers and thunderstorms will continue to occur as the forcing along the warm front and LLJ kick up this evening into tonight. Until the cold front passes through this evening into tonight from north to south chances will continue for showers and thunderstorms. As we have started to see clearing move into western Minnesota as the morning and afternoon storms come to an end recover of the atmosphere remains possible and a round two of storms could occur ahead of the cold front. Behind the cold front tomorrow will be cooler and drier with highs in the mid to upper 70s. High pressure will move into the Upper Midwest behind the cold front, so these cooler temperatures and drier weather will continue into Monday.
An upper low currently situated over the Idaho panhandle will gradually fill and move south and east towards the area today. Expect convection to initiate over the higher terrain, mainly in the west during the afternoon, gradually spreading south and east into the evening. A cold front dropping south out of Canada will approach the area from the north late in the day on Monday bringing increasing northerly winds and shower/thunderstorm chances Monday night.
However, a few models to bring effective front farther south into extreme southern Kansas later today and tonight as potent s/wv trough passes over the Great Lakes region.
Cooler and drier air in the wake of last night's frontal passage will be noticeable with afternoon highs at least 10 degrees cooler than yesterday.
1045 PM CDT Sat Jul 23 2022 Current surface analysis indicates an area of low pressure over our south central SD counties, with a warm front extending eastward along the central and eastern Interstate 90 corridor. This low will slowly drop to the southeast through the afternoon, as a cold front slides southward across the area. After the storms exit, cooler and drier air will begin to filter into the region with lows tonight in the upper 50s to mid 60s.
SHORT TERM (Now through Monday): Center of an Tropical Upper- Tropospheric Trough (TUTT) is shown by water vapor loop due east of SPI. At the same time, the 500mb dominate ridge extends west to east from the Desert Southwest through the Southern Plains and into the Deep South. GFS/ECMWF and other short-term models show little to no QPF signal inland with just a few streamers linger offshore this morning even with the upper trough passing nearby. A few more streamer showers expected tonight with a few approaching SPI and BRO Monday morning but by Monday afternoon the upper trough is far enough west and mid level subsidence increases lowering rain chances to less than 10 percent.
Additional development will occur into southern Georgia but coverage won't be as great as points southward owing to greater influence of high pressure and subsidence. Skewed the highest pops tomorrow in these areas. High temperatures tomorrow will be in the low to mid 90s and feels like temperatures into the low to perhaps mid 100s.
319 AM CDT Sun Jul 24 2022 The latest sfc analysis was indicating the main sfc front squeezing eastward acrs central into northeast IA, with short wave upper trof digging acrs MN ATTM. Will have sctrd prefrontal-lingering LLJ induced showers and storms into the early Sunday morning period, then a cooler post-frontal regime into the early week period. Cooler influx will translate into highs in the low to mid 80s, with sfc DPTs eventually mixing down into the 60s. Incoming bubble of high pressure for a fair wx night and lows well down in the 60s, with some upper 50s possible in spots.
The 5h ridge axis will remain in place across the southern CONUS extending east into the TN Valley. High temperatures will reach the lower 90s in valley locations, with upper 80s atop the higher plateaus/mountains.
359 AM CDT Sun Jul 24 2022 The main story in the short term is the cooler temperatures expected across the region. With the passage of the front yesterday, cooler air will filter in out of Canada bringing some relief to the extremely hot temperatures of the past week. Highs today will drop into the mid to upper 80s with highs on Monday even cooler in the upper 70s to mid 80s. In addition to cooler air, isolated thunderstorms are expected both this evening and Monday evening.
(Today through Monday afternoon) Upper ridging will remain over West Texas and Southeast New Mexico today and Monday.
Cooler weather will start the new work week. Warm advection on the van of that system is expected to drive todays highs above the averages once again with readings once again on either side of 90 F for areas off the ridges. A cold front sliding across the Great Lakes is likely to generate more widespread thunderstorms over the Upr OH Region as the afternoon and evening progress. The severe threat will wane tonight with the instability but a line of showers and storms is expected to accompany actual cold front passage. Long range model ensembles indicate that an active pattern will continue with southern Canadian low pressure and frontal interaction in the TN/OH Valley areas.
1220 AM CDT Sun Jul 24 2022 (This evening through Sunday Night) A typical late July summer day has yielded temperatures in the lower to mid 90s this afternoon as the influence of upper level ridging becomes more reinforced across the region. This trend of hotter and drier conditions will only continue through the remainder of the weekend as the upper ridge becomes more entrenched across our region. Temperatures should nudge even warmer on Sunday with afternoon highs mainly in the mid to upper 90s and heat index values topping out in the lower 100s near 105 degrees, but decided to hold off on any heat headlines once again with marginal readings in terms of meeting our heat advisory criteria.
High pressure remains the dominant feature across Middle Tennessee both at the surface and aloft.
215 AM MDT Sun Jul 24 2022 Current surface shows high pressure across the Northern Plains. Broad upper trof sets up across the Northern Plains this week, shunting the heat south and west of the area. Ridge rebuilds across the Rockies for the end of the week, with warmer temperatures returning.
Freezing levels are. The highest potential for 105+ degree heat indices remains across far southern portions of the forecast area where the advisory remains in effect, but areas along I-70 could feel quite sticky with moisture pooling along the boundary, light winds, and periodic sunshine. Have maintained low chance PoPs through the day as the boundary hangs around, but chances really start to ramp up Sunday night as the low-level jet strengthens. 12z HREF indicates the highest probability for thunderstorms, possibly with some heavy rainfall, right along I-70 between 06z and 12z Monday.
/NEW/ /Through Monday/ With the upper ridge axis elongating eastward through the Southern Plains, seasonably hot and dry weather will persist through the short term.
231 AM MDT Sun Jul 24 2022 MORNING DISCUSSION: Synoptic Setup: Anchored hot high pressure over the western half of the CONUS will be the main feature around which everything else will move. Monday and Monday night: Surface cold front will move across the region bringing some weak showers along with it.
High pressure will dominate throughout the near term period marking Sunday as a typical summer day in the Southeast. Ensembles continue to show upper level high pressure dominating the period, which means typical muggy and summer like weather will continue. High temperatures will generally be in the low to mid 90s and heat indices will range from roughly 100 to 105, while overnight lows remain toasty and in the low to mid 70s. High pressure will dominate the forecast which will lead to favorable boating conditions. High pressure will remain across the area for the next couple of days, leading to fairly light transport winds and poor to fair dispersion. There are no major flooding concerns as high pressure will dominate the forecast period.
A cold front approaches the Quad State late afternoon with a few showers and thunderstorms possible late in the day. Northern portions of the Quad State will be well below normal with highs in the lower half of the 80s. A recently passed surface frontal boundary is returning northward as a warm front, or quasi-stationary warm sector. We are thermally seasonal, with upper 80s-lower 90s for daytime highs and juicy dew points in the low-mid 70s. H5 heights tumble some 40-50 DM later in the period, as the primary long wave trof over the Great Lakes nears its axis.
With the 500MB 593 dam sliding in from the northeast and 850MB temperatures just a tad bit warmer, expect today's high temperatures to be a degree or two higher, in particular for areas who do not receive any afternoon rainfall. Tranquil conditions expected tonight with lows in the mid to upper 70s inland and the low 80s along the coasts.
1210 AM CDT Sun Jul 24 2022 (The rest of tonight) A warm night is expected across the region tonight with lows ranging form the low 70s to low 80s with upper ridging continuing to build in from the west overnight.
1226 AM CDT Sun Jul 24 2022 (This evening through Sunday) The upper level high will continue to remain the dominant player in our weather over the short-term. The core of the high has begun to move east out of the Four Corners region and into the northern New Mexico/southern Colorado area. Conditions are expected to stay dry with the closer proximity of the upper high increasing subsidence across the area. The 850 mb thermal ridge doesn't look to strengthen tomorrow so temperatures will be comparable to today in the upper 90s to low 100s.
The low level jet persists past midnight while the instability remain sufficient for additional storms. The cold front stalls out over central parts of the CWA for Sunday morning but resumes its southeast push later in the morning into the early afternoon hours. High pressure for Monday.
Temperatures are expected to fall into the low to mid 70s with partly cloudy skies.
Bermuda ridge offshore with general south flow across the area with an modest increase in moisture. Upper ridge continues out west with weak trough across the southeast. Main westerlies remain to the north with trough across southeast Canada/Great Lakes region. Forcing for convection remains weak with primarily sea breeze front/weak surface convergence and convective outflow although there could be a weak short wave rotating around ridge to the west to provide some forcing. High temps in the low to mid 90s and lows in the low to mid 70s. Upper pattern continues to show a weak upper low sandwiched between the Bermuda high in the western Atlantic and the southern Mississippi Valley Ridge.
Evening satellite showing clouds accompanying an upper low over eastern WA with showers and thunderstorms focused along the US/Canada border. Near normal temperatures will continue through Sunday night as a weak Pacific trough passes by to our north. Once the trough exits east our CWA will become hotter beginning Monday as the main upper ridge in the southwestern US begins to move north, while another upper ridge approaches from the Pacific. As the swrn US ridge moves northward through Nevada it will circulate mid-high level monsoon moisture into Oregon resulting in some clouds (but no rain) in Harney County Monday night. Winds will become locally breezy again Sunday afternoon from the west or northwest, but will die down Sunday evening as the northern trough moves away.
Otherwise, the strong mid/upper level high pressure is stretched across the desert southwest to the plains to the deep south. With our areas being on the western periphery of the high, we will continue to be dominated by the anticyclonic flow around the high.
Broad high pressure across southern tier states with a high center consolidated over northern New Mexico this morning. By mid week, ensembles and ensemble means lean toward a new ridge position through the Great Basin with a high center reconsolidating to our northwest. Even with a less favorable synoptic position for the high, initial upstream mid level flow will still be moist for a few days, with plenty of boundary layer moisture to recirculate along with some flavor of lower level push continuing from the south.
626 AM CDT Sun Jul 24 2022 (Today through Monday) The subtropical ridge will continue to dominate over the southern half of the country during the short term period. The low level flow beneath the ridge is from the southeast and this pattern will also continue.
644 AM CDT Sun Jul 24 2022 (Sunday through Monday) Hot and dry conditions will continue to prevail for today as upper level ridging remains in place across our region. Monday could be a degree or two warmer than today, however, still only seeing those marginal heat index values.
A cold front was moving southeast through southeast Colorado and southwest Kansas. The showers and storms will likely come in from New Mexico and Colorado ahead of an upper level short wave trough moving through the faster flow to our north. Will go ahead and issue a Heat Advisory for Palo Duro Canyon as temperatures may be some 6 degrees warmer than Amarillo as the winds are expected to be lighter which will lead to less mixing in the canyon and this may allow for the heat to get trapped more efficiently.
/issued 219 AM CDT Sun Jul 24 2022/ Sub-tropical ridging continues to expand across the southern U.
Cooler weather will start the new work week. A cold front sliding across the Great Lakes is likely to generate more widespread thunderstorms over the Upr OH Region starting late this afternoon into the overnight hours. Storms will progress southeast overnight ahead of cold front, but severe threat will wane with loss of instability. The system will complete is passage through the region by the early afternoon hours Monday, with storm chances primarily relegated to the higher terrain southeast of Pittsburgh. Building high pressure and cold advection with a northwest wind will create dry and seasonable weather the rest of the day Monday.
Cooler temps expected Monday with highs 75-80, though winds turning off the lake Monday should result in slightly cooler temperatures along the lakefront.
(This afternoon through Monday) High pressure will continue to be the main feature across the region.
Cooler weather will start the new work week. Warm advection on the van of that system is expected to drive todays highs above the averages once again with readings once again on either side of 90 F for areas off the ridges. A cold front sliding across the Great Lakes is likely to generate more widespread thunderstorms over the Upr OH Region as the afternoon and evening progress. The severe threat will wane tonight with the instability but a line of showers and storms is expected to accompany actual cold front passage. Long range model ensembles indicate that an active pattern will continue with southern Canadian low pressure and frontal interaction in the TN/OH Valley areas. Conditions will deteriorate this afternoon and evening from the north to south as more widespread convection develops ahead of an approaching cold front.
Today's primary forecast challenge will be how deep will we mix up to this afternoon and how low does our dew point and RH values fall? Temperatures today are going to be pleasant with highs in the mid to upper 70s with comfortably cool conditions for tonight with lows ranging from the low 50s to the mid 50s and the exception being the upper 50s in the inner Twin Cities core. It will be slightly warmer than Sunday, but not by much as highs range from the mid 70s to the lower 80s.
Due to an abundance of high clouds, onshore flow, and a persistent marine layer west of the mountains, cooler than average conditions will prevail this week.
Upper ridging attempts to build eastward over the region today but is then hampered by two features. These two features will limit potential subsidence effects from the upper ridge which could limit convective development. Lows tonight range from the lower 70s well inland to the mid/upper 70s at the coast.
648 AM CDT Sun Jul 24 2022 The main story in the short term is the cooler temperatures expected across the region. With the passage of the front yesterday, cooler air will filter in out of Canada bringing some relief to the extremely hot temperatures of the past week. Highs today will drop into the mid to upper 80s with highs on Monday even cooler in the upper 70s to mid 80s. In addition to cooler air, isolated thunderstorms are expected both this evening and Monday evening.
A warming trend will begin as a ridge builds over the region Sunday and Monday.
Water vapor imagery this morning continues to show the upper level low in the western Gulf of Mexico, about 150 miles southeast of Brownsville. The upper level low is expected to continue moving westward and traverse across northern Mexico/Deep South Texas this morning through this afternoon. Subsidence in the wake of the aforementioned feature and an upper level ridge expanding into South Texas tomorrow will promote dry and stable conditions with only minimal rain chances tonight through tomorrow. High temperatures today and tomorrow are forecast to remain above- average with temperatures ranging from the lower to mid 90s near the coast to near 107 degrees across the Brush Country.
12Z guidance came in lower than expected for highs today probably due to the high clouds moving in from the north. TD Chattanooga Airport, TN 92 74 91 73 90 / 20 10 50 30 50 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 92 73 91 73 88 / 20 10 60 40 70 Oak Ridge, TN 92 73 89 72 87 / 20 10 60 40 70 Tri Cities Airport, TN 91 70 88 69 84 / 20 20 70 50 70.
243 AM PDT Sun Jul 24 2022 Seasonably hot conditions will persist through the week as a ridge builds into the western US. Hot temperatures will continue this week as a ridge builds over the western US throughout the week. We will likely see triple-digit heat in the lower valleys of western Nevada, with above average temperatures elsewhere.
522 AM MDT Sun Jul 24 2022 Current surface shows high pressure across the Northern Plains. Broad upper trof sets up across the Northern Plains this week, shunting the heat south and west of the area. Ridge rebuilds across the Rockies for the end of the week, with warmer temperatures returning.
-Stalley Previous Discussion: /Through Monday/ With the upper ridge axis elongating eastward through the Southern Plains, seasonably hot and dry weather will persist through the short term.
High pressure will work southeast into the region tonight, with drier and less humid air working in. The high will move over the area Monday, bringing a nice day with mild temperatures and lower humidity.
An upper level trof enters The Treasure State from the west, moving moisture into the region as it continues its trek eastward.
The latest sfc analysis was indicating the main sfc front squeezing eastward acrs central into northeast IA, with short wave upper trof digging acrs MN ATTM. Will have sctrd prefrontal-lingering LLJ induced showers and storms into the early Sunday morning period, then a cooler post-frontal regime into the early week period. Cooler influx will translate into highs in the low to mid 80s, with sfc DPTs eventually mixing down into the 60s. Incoming bubble of high pressure for a fair wx night and lows well down in the 60s, with some upper 50s possible in spots.