Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1044 AM MST Sat Mar 3 2018 Wild weather ride is in store for the forecast area over the next 36 hours with windy conditions today and tonight followed by a strong cold front, more wind and rain changing to snow on Sunday. Winds are developing in tight pressure gradient ahead of the Pacific low/trough which will be headed into the Great Basin today. Winds are expected to remain gusty overnight as the sfc front stands up over western Utah as gets nudged eastward by 120 kt speed max rotating into the base of the long wave trough.
1240 PM EST Sat Mar 3 2018 Strong low pressure south of the New England Coast will slowly move further away from the forecast area through the weekend. A pressure ridge extending through the Mississippi River Valley will move eastward.
The upper level ridge that has brought nice weather to the region the past few days will begin to shift east overnight as well.
With no change in the pressure gradient, breezy and gusty winds will persist well into the overnight, promoting moisture advection north and westward from the lower plains to the high plains overnight, with resultant stratus expansion after midnight. A dryline will extend farther west tomorrow, bringing lower dewpoints farther east, perhaps as far as the highway 183 corridor. Windy conditions and even warmer highs farther east are expected.
SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday night): A weak warm front has moved northward across the area, with surface winds shifting from the ENE back to the SE this afternoon. An area of showers affected portions of the lower Rio Grande Valley, but it has dissipated for the most part as it moves into the northern Ranchlands. Behind the front, skies continue to clear along the coast with temperatures rising into the low 80s across most of the area. Drier air will sink into the lower levels tonight through Sunday with rain chances quickly diminishing from south to north. Temperatures on Sunday will be even warmer with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s.
Breezy conditions are expected this afternoon as the pressure gradient tightens thanks to low pressure deepening over the plains.
Dry conditions will prevail through tonight as our area remains under northwesterly flow aloft and a broad area of high pressure persists at the surface.
For tonight, deepening low pressure moving in the the central High Plains will push clouds and a slight chance of precipitation into mainly southeast MN/northwest and north central WI. Precipitation ramps up from west to east Sunday night as low pressure lifts out of the Plains toward the Upper Mississippi River Valley Region. Also, surface temperatures may be cool enough at the surface for a few pockets of freezing rain/light glazing.
Models remains fairly consistent with moving potent upper trough into the intermountain west during the day Sunday. Surface winds will remain strong/gusty Sunday ahead of cold front, which will move into the area late Sunday night.
243 PM CST Sat Mar 3 2018 Sprawling ridge of high pressure extending from Ontario southward to the Gulf Coast will continue to dominate the weather across central Illinois through Sunday. while highs on Sunday climb into the lower to middle 50s.
Sfc dew points could reach the lower 40s by morning. The northerly track also pulls in much warmer and drier air into the heart of the Sandhills during the day Sunday. Precip chances primarily hold off until after 00z (aside from morning drizzle) until the mid and upper level support arrive in the forms of the closed low and jet streak. The slow nature of the low's progression across the northern Plains keeps a steady supply of moisture and isentropic upglide for north central Neb.
1025 AM CST Sat Mar 3 2018 Water vapor imagery shows a ridge of high pressure centered over Texas this morning, with dry northwesterly flow over the ArkLaTex. Although we had a cooler start to our day today, temperatures are running similar to or only slightly cooler. Therefore, adjusted temperatures up a little for today to be similar to or slightly warmer than what we saw yesterday.
Clear skies and seasonal temperatures will rule as we remain lodged between high pressure ridge over the Mississippi Valley and the nor'easter in the Atlantic.
Upper level ridging is in place through Iowa with considerable warm/theta-e advection and associated 1-3km QG forcing below.
The latest sfc analysis was indicating passing ridge center acrs the western GRT LKS and down into the OH RVR Valley, while tightening southeasterly return flow pressure gradient with an embedded warm front was organizing acrs the eastern plains and western IA/MO.
Persistent low level warm advection ahead of advancing upper trough may be enough to maintain scattered precip into Sunday evening.
A cold upper trough over the Pacific Northwest and northern California will continue to produce scattered showers, low snow levels, and isolated thunderstorms through today. Tonight and Sunday night will be chilly with low temperatures down near freezing in the inland valleys.
A coastal trough moving inland today should provide enough lift to generate isolated to scattered showers across the area. Temperatures today will be in the low 70s across the northern zones to low 80s across extreme southern parts of the area. On Sunday, southerly flow will return to South Texas resulting in warmer temperatures.
352 PM CST Sat Mar 3 2018 Upper level trough presently centered along the Pacific coast of the CONUS will begin to push eastward tonight, and will be the harbinger of things to come for the beginning of the week.
1233 PM EST Sat Mar 3 2018 Ridge of high pressure is drifting dead overhead this morning, resulting in quiet conditions and minimal cloud cover. Overnight composite analysis reveals upper level ridging building across the plains and the western Great Lakes/Ohio Valley region. flanked by deep closed lows over the Pac NW and the departing major winter storm off the New England coast. High pressure/dry air remain the dominate forces across the region throughout the weekend. Upstream ridging/thermal axis slowly edges into the region and we will continue to see some mid and high cloud cover streaming through the region as a result.
339 PM CST Sat Mar 3 2018 21z sfc map showed low pressure across eastern colorado with a thin ribbon of 40s dewpoints extending into central KS. Larger viewpoint shows Gulf moisture remains confined to central/south TX due to continued E fetch in wake of large upper low across the East.
321 PM EST Sat Mar 3 2018 A quiet day ahead for southeast Michigan as high pressure ridge begins to build across the Great Plains. A few clouds could be seen earlier this morning streaming around the ridge axis under northwesterly flow aloft, but quickly dissipated with good subsidence and dry air advection moving into the area. High temperatures at most locations will be topping out in the low 40s, which is right around normal for early March. Amplification of the ridge will continue tomorrow as the axis slides into the western Great Lakes. West of the ridge will be a low pressure system originating from the Pacific and it will begin to pivot through the Rocky Mountains. It will remain a cool early March day with temperatures in the lower 40s.
208 PM MST Sat Mar 3 2018 21z surface analysis had low near KSPF with warm front into eastern NE, trough into central WY and into central MT. Bigger picture showed upper trough over southwest Canada into western OR with an upper low over central AB and one just west of OR. Effects of frontal boundaries main concern early on, and then the upper trough. Tonight/Sunday morning, upper trough moves onshore as downstream ridge continues to move east.
Otherwise, expect a pleasant day in the low to mid 70s with increasing dew points and cloud cover. /ISSUED 453 AM CST Sat Mar 3 2018/ Surface ridging over the eastern half of the state will be sliding away to the east today allowing easterly winds to veer to the southeast by Sunday morning. Dry air over the region will retreat with onshore flow this morning leading to increasing moisture in the lower levels and an increase in cloud cover from southwest to northeast across the area through tonight. Temperatures will follow a gradual warming trend across the region as upper ridging traverses the area this weekend. Sunday night deeper moisture will begin pooling along and ahead of the incoming cold front.
Temperatures are likely to be a few degrees cooler than today, especially in the west where cloudiness will be thicker. As an inverted trough shifts across the state overnight, the instability will wain or shift east so during the overnight, we should lose the thunder threat and just have showers.
349 PM CST Sat Mar 3 2018 An overcast cloud deck has now overtaken the CWA, causing high temperatures to top out in the low to mid 70s. High pressure at the surface will continue to track eastward as winds veer to southerly tonight. With low temperatures tonight in the upper 50s to low 60s, the higher dew points will bring a chance for patchy fog early Sunday morning in the southwestern counties.
Sfc winds are light E/SE around 5KT in the wake of exiting High pressure to the E and will bump speeds a bit for Sunday. /issued 1025 AM CST Sat Mar 3 2018/ Water vapor imagery shows a ridge of high pressure centered over Texas this morning, with dry northwesterly flow over the ArkLaTex. Although we had a cooler start to our day today, temperatures are running similar to or only slightly cooler. Therefore, adjusted temperatures up a little for today to be similar to or slightly warmer than what we saw yesterday.
1130 AM CST Sat Mar 3 2018 High pressure will dominate the weather across central Illinois today. 16z/10am readings have already risen into the lower to middle 40s. well on their way to afternoon highs in the lower to middle 50s. High pressure at the surface and aloft will dominate our weather through tonight bringing plenty of sunshine to the area along with temperatures a few degrees warmer than what we saw yesterday, despite an easterly flow over the forecast area.
A passing cold front will bring chances for rain and snow tonight through early Sunday.
421 PM EST Sat Mar 3 2018 Fairly benign weather through the short term portion of the forecast as a large high pressure system has control over much of the eastern U. Strong ridging is in place aloft to, with northwest flow pulling dry but cool air into the region.
A broad upper trough will continue over the western U. An low within this trough is currently off the central Oregon coast. This low will drift south this afternoon while slowly filling. This low will then jump east to southern Idaho overnight. Moisture continues to rotate around this low, with one band moving across eastern Oregon and another moving into southwest Oregon. These showers will mainly be over the higher terrain, but could drift over lower elevations.
An upper trough over the West Coast will move inland today. There is low pressure south of the area and high pressure over Canada. A weak upper trough will move through Western Washington Sunday and Sunday night giving an increase in shower activity.
Through the next 24 hours high pressure ridging aloft and at the surface will be transitioning to our east and starting to open the door for inclement weather a bit. While the main eventual incoming disturbance and frontal system will remain off to our west through the day tomorrow, clouds will gradually increase and thicken as moisture aloft streams toward the ridge axis aloft. Returning moisture and cloud cover will keep low temperatures on the warmer side of normal.
/issued 338 AM CST Sat Mar 3 2018/ Southwesterly flow aloft has returned to West Texas as an upper level ridge slowly slides eastward across the central part of the country.
1242 PM EST Sat Mar 3 2018 Building high pressure will ensure dry and seasonably cool conditions for the weekend. Building high pressure will result in dry conditions today with limited cloud coverage.
and maybe even some freezing drizzle if temperatures are cold enough. If today was an example, temperatures may be even warmer than what we have going now. The low level jet remains over the area on Sunday, with the models showing some instability developing along and south of the Interstate 94 corridor. Global models are actually starting to come into decent agreement with the timing and placement of a Colorado low pressure system impacting the region. Further south and east, confidence is much lower on the higher snowfall totals as these locations will be slower to cool and therefore less time for snow before the system pulls away.
359 PM EST Sat Mar 3 2018 High pressure over central Canada will slowly build eastward into the area today and Sunday.
422 PM EST Sat Mar 3 2018 Fairly benign weather through the short term portion of the forecast as a large high pressure system has control over much of the eastern U. Strong ridging is in place aloft to, with northwest flow pulling dry but cool air into the region.
1034 AM MST Sat Mar 3 2018 Strong warming well underway this morning with temperatures readings already reaching the lower 60s at many locations on the plains.
Dry and seasonal conditions continue across the mid state with upper level ridging building aloft. Sunny skies and highs from the mid 50s to mid 60s are in store for the weekend, along with lows around and just below freezing this morning and Sunday morning.
Ridging aloft building over the central conus between a deep upper low/trough over the western Atlantic and another over the Pacific Northwest will shift east across the Mississippi Valley through Sunday.
1038 AM CST Sat Mar 3 2018 High pressure will dominate the weather across central Illinois today. 16z/10am readings have already risen into the lower to middle 40s. well on their way to afternoon highs in the lower to middle 50s. High pressure at the surface and aloft will dominate our weather through tonight bringing plenty of sunshine to the area along with temperatures a few degrees warmer than what we saw yesterday, despite an easterly flow over the forecast area.
The current forecast remains on track as high pressure and light northerly winds will prevail across the area, along with clear skies.
However, expect dry and mild conditions once again during the day, with temperatures likely getting a degree or two warmer than todays readings.
Isolated showers and thunderstorms are expected this evening across the lower Trans Pecos and Big Bend as a weak disturbance ahead of the main upper system traverses the region in the southwest flow.
Expect cooler temperatures Sunday and gusty afternoon winds especially east of Tucson as a system moves north of the area.
Easterly flow today has increased low level humidity, with temperatures above freezing, and our ground temperature is at 32. The answer appears to be that most of the area will stay above freezing, except west river where guidance has the highest spread. Any freezing fog/drizzle may result in slick road conditions but suspect this will not be a widespread issue.
Byrd The combo of an upper level RIDGE and SE low level flow will prevail across our region for one more day on Sunday, maintaining mostly dry weather and above average temperatures.
225 PM CST Sat Mar 3 2018 Water vapor imagery shows the ridge axis over Texas gradually shifting eastward this afternoon. In fact, most locations are running 2 to 4 degrees warmer than this time yesterday, with several locations at or above 70 degrees at 2 pm. For the most part, rainfall amounts look to be on the low side compared to some of our more recent storms, with most areas seeing between a quarter and half inch tomorrow.
This is warmer than any of the model solutions. It will be a little cooler east of the dryline in the low level moisture. Winds and increasing dewpoints will prevent temperatures from falling below the 50s from Dodge City eastward tonight, with slightly cooler 40s to the west. Temperatures will be near 80 degrees along and west of the dryline, with slightly cooler reading in the low level moisture to the east.
1100 AM CST Sat Mar 3 2018 High pressure will keep skies clear toay. As the high moves east, cirrus clouds will return tonight and increase Sunday morning. High temps shld be a couple of degrees warmer as an upr lvl rdg axis moves ovr the region.
222 PM CST Sat Mar 3 2018 Upper level ridging will keep our region dry into Sunday. Temperatures will be a few degrees warmer on Sunday as winds become southerly ahead of our next weather system.
/issued 1138 AM EST Sat Mar 3 2018/ Breezy northerly winds have been responsible for advecting drier and cooler weather into South Florida thus far today.
High pressure covers most of the eastern U. Some areas of west Tennessee will see temperatures reach near or slightly below freezing early Sunday morning. High pressure will slide off to the east on Sunday while a storm system moves out of the Rockies and into the central Plains.
Thus, did not really change the rain chances much, as the boundary should move north as a warm front (appears to be near and take all the focus for any rain north of the area. Warmer on Sunday with fewer clouds but more humid. Concerning the rip current risk, will maintain the high rip current through midnight then once the wind become more southeast and diminish, the fetch of the high period swells should diminish.
Model trends showing a slower trend to stratus development and thus a slightly warmer and windier day.
/Issued 630 AM EST Sat Mar 3 2018/ A strong upper ridge will drift from west of the MS River Valley into the southeast states during the short term.
A cold upper trough over the Pacific Northwest and northern California will continue to produce scattered showers, low snow levels, and isolated thunderstorms through today. Tonight and Sunday night will be chilly with low temperatures near freezing in the inland valleys.
The upper low which brought the best winter storm of this season is sliding south over northern CA/NV today. The cold core of the low will bring isolated shower activity today, with enhancement to coverage this evening and overnight as the jet rounds the backside of the low. For western Nevada and the Highway 395 corridor eastward in Mono Co, showers will be largely hit or miss with some locations seeing 1-2" and others receiving nothing. While a few stray showers may linger into Sunday morning, overall conditions will be clearing as the low exits to the east.
Low level winds will veer to the southwest late tonight and Sunday morning with the low clouds decreasing from west to east. /issued 310 AM CST Sat Mar 3 2018/ Low-level moisture is creeping nw into the se PB this AM with light se winds east of the lee trough. Any clouds/light fog that develop will dissipate by mid morning and we expect another day with above normal high temps, especially across the w where 85h temps are 6-9C warmer. As an upper low moves e into the central plains a cold front will have been moving s and is forecast to arrive INVOF I-20 corridor around 12Z Mon. This will re-enforce cooler/even drier air across the area on Mon/Tue. Warmer Wed/Thur with dry air moderating some.
The only difference will be perhaps a couple degrees warmer in our far SW.
Upper air analysis this morning showed a ridge over the middle of the country with the flow over Texas turning from the southwest to west. At the surface, high pressure was centered to the northeast making winds across our CWA easterly to southeasterly. The upper level flow will remain from the southwest as the ridge axis shifts slowly to the east tonight and Sunday. The low level flow will continue from the south bringing an old frontal boundary back to the north as a warm front. Sunday night a cold front will move through West Texas while warm, moist flow continues across our CWA and brings slight rain chances across the northern half of the area.
1013 AM MST Sat Mar 3 2018 Current surface map places weak low across southeast Montana, with warm front just north of the Black Hills.
With the main ridge axis overhead and winds swinging more southerly today, it will be a warmer day with highs expected to reach above freezing for most locations and into the 40s in treed. With air at mid and upper levels will remain quite dry under ridging, QPF will be quite light and this profile suggests mainly drizzle or freezing drizzle and also potential for fog over colder snow-covered ground tonight.
212 PM EST Sat Mar 3 2018 Building high pressure will ensure dry and seasonably cool conditions through the weekend. Building high pressure will result continued dry conditions through the weekend with limited cloud coverage. Daytime highs will be slightly warmer on Sunday.
230 PM EST Sat Mar 3 2018 Strong 1039mb Canadian high just north of northern Michigan currently influencing the weather across the lower Ohio Valley. Light northerly to northeasterly winds have kept temperatures cool this afternoon, but completely sunny skies make it "feel" a bit warmer out there. Still expecting another sunny, near cloudless day tomorrow, but with temperatures a couple of degrees warmer than where they are today. Clouds will begin increasing Sunday night ahead of an approaching cold front.
Expect one more night of frost & sub-freezing temperatures before weak return flow begins to advect slightly warmer air into the mid state tomorrow.
632 PM EST Thu Dec 28 2017 A trough of low pressure will push offshore this evening and high pressure will build in from the west overnight.
725 PM CST Thu Dec 28 2017 Added possibility of freezing fog in the northwest, and updated sky grids tonight into tomorrow with widespread cloudiness expected to prevail and eventually expand north. The high-resolution models are also rather bullish with fog forming across northwestern Oklahoma. Therefore, have added the mention of freezing fog across northwestern Oklahoma to the north of where freezing drizzle/light snow is already mentioned. Light freezing drizzle or snow may occur in western and southern Oklahoma early Friday. Models clearly indicate that freezing drizzle is the most likely weather type (as they did this morning, when all the reported precipitation was snow), so given this morning's events, have opted to include both freezing drizzle AND snow in the forecast for much of our forecast area late tonight into Friday morning.
All eyes are still on the strong cold front and major Arctic air intrusion expected this weekend.
It will be a few degrees warmer on Friday as the mercury reaches the upper 30s to mid 40s.
524 PM EST Thu Dec 28 2017 High pressure will maintain mainly dry and cold weather today.
High pressure off of the California coast will build inland and allow for temperatures to gradually warm, especially over the Central Coast. Temperatures are then forecast to "cool" slightly heading into the upcoming weekend as the ridge of high pressure weakens.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 28 47 28 46 / 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 23 41 26 43 / 0 0 0 10 Oak Ridge, TN 23 42 25 42 / 0 0 0 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 19 39 23 38 / 10 0 0 10.
A strong ridge over south-central California will push eastward and weaken slightly over the next few days. The temperatures in the higher elevations likely peaked today, or will peak on Friday.
On the average the low temperature forecast looks on track. Strong cold front passage expected just beyond the end of this forecast period.
Temperatures are in the low to mid 70s and dew points are upper 60s to near 70. Dew points are expected to begin their gradual decent downward (to the mid 60s) Friday evening as northerly flow off the peninsula allows cooler continental air to escape into the island chain ahead of the frontal passage expected later this weekend.
Not until after the 3rd does any signs of warmer temperatures begin to filter across the Rockies and into the Plains. Even with the slightly warmer temperatures beginning to filter into the region from the west, the long wave pattern will likely keep most of the Upper Midwest in a cold pattern through the first week of January.
911 PM EST Thu Dec 28 2017 Arctic high pressure will remain overhead tonight.