Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
High pressure over the Western Atlantic waters will keep an breezy to windy easterly wind flow over the TAF sites today. Aloft, a ridge of high pressure will be pinched from the northwest as a cold front approaches Florida. This pattern will keep deep-layered moisture limited over the area though the persistent easterly flow will allow for shallow moisture to continue building over the area which could permit some shallow shower activity to return to the forecast by Monday, especially in the northern areas closer to the front as the high aloft shifts south. The Atlantic breeze will keep the overnight lows from offering much relief over Southeast Florida with temperatures in the lower to mid 70s though inland areas and Southwest Florida will dip into the mid to upper 60s.
535 AM CST Sun Mar 6 2022 A short wave trough will eject into the Central Plains today and will bring precipitation chances to much of central and southern Kansas today. We should see the return of mild to below normal highs as cold air gets reinforced behind the trough.
Coverage needed to be increased to better reflect current trends ahead of the mid level trough but impacts are still in line with the idea of less than 1" of snow for some and non measurable for most. After that dry conditions should persist as subsidence builds over the region behind the trough axis persisting into Monday afternoon.
338 AM CST Sun Mar 6 2022 Our general pattern today through the end of the upcoming work week features strong southwest flow aloft ahead of a broad upper level trough across much of the U.
However, additional showers could develop to the south along the pre-frontal trough before 12Z. After 12Z, there could be some lingering showers near the pre- frontal trough in the south. The surface cold front will move through the area today, but not expecting any rain to develop along it with the focus on the pre-frontal trough.
749 AM EST Sun Mar 6 2022 Rain and windy conditions will interrupt the warmer weather for the start of the new week. Cooler conditions will follow passage of a Monday front. Deeper moisture and better convective potential are expected to fuel a general inch of rain, but again the strong wind field may yield gust problems and a possible severe threat as the systems cold front is swept eastward during the early afternoon.
an upper level low pressure area over southern Utah in the morning is forecast to lift northeast and over the forecast area by the end of the day, continuing northeast and out of the area shortly after midnight. High temperatures are forecast to be in the lower 30s to lower 40s with overnight lows in the 11F to 18F range.
Near record high temperatures are forecast across the area today with a mid level ridge axis positioned over Florida.
These clouds could produce a few weak snow showers across the area today with cyclonic flow and an upper trough in northerly flow dropping into southern Montana through the day. The best chance of getting any appreciable snow shower coverage will be over the higher terrain. High temperatures Monday will be a little warmer, with temperatures poking into the lower 40s in spots.
After that dry conditions should persist as subsidence builds over the region behind the trough axis persisting into Monday afternoon.
Our general pattern today through the end of the upcoming work week features strong southwest flow aloft ahead of a broad upper level trough across much of the U.
302 PM EST Sun Mar 6 2022 Isolated showers and an embedded thunderstorm are possible as a warm front lifts north of Pittsburgh.
By this evening, the Mid-South will be in a lull until the actual cold front begins move into the area around midnight. /issued 448 AM CST Sun Mar 6 2022/ Surface analysis places a cold front from Wisconsin back through Missouri then back into the Red River Valley of Texas/Oklahoma. Shower and thunderstorm chances will gradually increase across the Mid-South today as the aforementioned cold front drops into portions of Northeast Arkansas and the Missouri Bootheel. This front is expected to briefly stall out then move back north as a warm front later this afternoon into this evening. Short term models including Convective Allowing Model solutions are indicating a decrease in convective chances this evening as the warm front pushes north of the Mid-South. However, this will be short-lived as a cold front moves through the Mid-South later tonight.
Monday will feature northerly flow aloft with a southwest to northeast oriented ridge axis moving overhead by the afternoon hours. This ridge will bring mild temperatures relative to the last couple of days, but will be right around normal for this time of year (highs in the upper 20s to upper 30s).
A cold front is now south of Interstate 20 and should continue to slowly move south through the afternoon hours. Also, a cold front was located just north of the Red River. The higher dewpoints and deeper boundary layer moisture has caused low clouds to move into southern and eastern parts of the area. most West Central Texas will remain in the warm sector and dry with highs in the lower to mid 80s. The cold front will move south to near the I-20 corridor by this afternoon. Temperatures will be cooler north of the front, with highs in the upper 50s and 60s. For tonight, the cold front will move south across the rest of the area, with scattered showers and a few thunderstorms mainly across the Heartland and Northwest Hill Country.
The upper low center over the 4-corners region early this morning will move across the Rockies as an open wave this morning and across the central High Plains region this afternoon and evening. There may be a narrow band of a rain/snow mix along the eastern periphery of the precipitation area, but do not expect any freezing precipitation further to the northwest where it should remain all snow with the colder temperatures and extensive cloud cover expected today. The system that brought snow to the area will move across the eastern Plains towards the Great Lakes on Monday while the next short wave trough dropping in from the northwest approaches the region. The cold area of high pressure across the central High Plains keeps temperatures cold across the area on Monday with highs between 30 and 40 and lows mainly in the teens.
1035 AM MST Sun Mar 6 2022 Latest upper analysis shows a low pressure center over the four corners area in the southwestern CONUS. A weak upper low is located over southern Manitoba, with a trough extending to the southwest and currently swinging southward out of Canada into Montana and North Dakota. Moisture streaming northward ahead of the southwestern CONUS low pressure system will react to a broad area of ascent associated with the upper trough moving southward out of Canada to produce areas of light snow today. Subsidence behind the departing trough will lead to a dry day on Monday.
(This evening through Monday) A cold front continues to slowly move south this afternoon, and is currently moving into the northern Concho Valley and Heartland. Much cooler temperatures and gusty north winds will filter in behind the front. Expect overnight low temperatures in the low to mid 30s for most locations, with our southern counties near 40.
This feature will make only a slight amount of eastward progress before lifting back to the north as a warm front this evening. As the boundary works northward as a warm front tonight, quite a bit of nva seems to be in place in the warmer sector. That said, other than across the northwest, our pops should remain on the lower side. Upper level energy working across the central plains will drive a cold front eastward.
Visible satellite imagery detects mostly clear skies across the Lower Keys with partly cloudy skies in the Middle and Upper Keys. From synopsis, high pressure centered near Bermuda will continue to slowly slide eastward across the western Atlantic during the next several days.
217 PM CST Sun Mar 6 2022 Surface maps indicate the low pressure system that brought some wintry weather to our area yesterday is out of here with the center of the low over Quebec. A high pressure system continues to move in from the northwest and will become centered over the Rockies/High Plains through Monday before moving southeast Monday evening.
Shower chances increase again on Monday, mainly over the high terrain.
Mild overnight with increasing winds in the higher terrain late tonight through at least mid-day Monday. Winds, particularly in the higher terrain and adjacent foothills, will really pick up late tonight into at least mid-day Monday. A wind advisory will be issued for many of the mountain zones that are expected to experience the highest gusts. Still expecting a straight-line wind event where the low level jet winds can reach the surface.
Guidance suggests that the boundary will orient itself more north to south in the OK/AR border region as a wave of low pressure develops on the front by evening. Showers and storms will increase in coverage on both sides of the front this afternoon as warm advection increases in advance of approaching upper low currently centered over the Four Corners.
Surface cold front approaching the IN/IL stateline will allow steeper low level lapse rates to shift across the area early this morning.
Highs have reached the lower 80s over most of the interior as expected, upper 70s down closer to the coast. This will maintain the isentropic lift over the area, but we will also start seeing low level forcing increase during the day on Monday as a cold front approaches the forecast area from the west. The cold front will be approaching the area from the northwest Monday morning into early Monday afternoon, before moving across interior SE MS and into SW AL during the afternoon hours. Low temperatures tonight should dip into the low to mid 60s across the entire region.
312 PM EST Sun Mar 6 2022 An upper-level ridge and strong southerly flow at the surface will pave the way to the warmest days of the year thus far. High pressure and upper-level ridging will continue to dominate our weather during the near term. High pressure aloft will remain in place on Monday for near record high temperatures.
940 AM PST Sun Mar 6 2022 Dry and warmer conditions will prevail this week.
We'll see increasing clouds overnight tonight as the cold front gets even closer to our area.
Sadly for those looking for spring to arrive, the evolution of a mean upper trough into the nations midsection will spell more winter at least into the following weekend.
227 PM CST Sun Mar 6 2022 Surface maps indicate the low pressure system that brought some wintry weather to our area yesterday is out of here with the center of the low over Quebec. A high pressure system continues to move in from the northwest and will become centered over the Rockies/High Plains through Monday before moving southeast Monday evening.
Cooler temperatures persist into the first half of the week.
146 PM MST Sun Mar 6 2022 Current surface map places high pressure across Montana. Dry weather continues on Monday with subsidence behind upper trof.
246 PM EST Sun Mar 6 2022 High pressure offshore will keep temperatures elevated through Monday. More seasonable weather and increasing rain chances will accompany a cold front that stalls through the midweek period.
Showers favored across the West Central and Boise Mountains, and south into the Magic Valley today as a trough sweeps south. Movement of this system will also bring slightly cooler temperatures, and will continue the presence of gusty to breezy winds this afternoon. Scattered snow showers developing over the west central Idaho mountains late this morning spreading south this afternoon across the Boise Mountains, the Snake River Valley mainly east of KMUO, and the higher terrain south of the Snake River Valley.
Have adjusted the wind/wind gust grids along with the hourly temperature forecast to better accommodate ongoing trends which were about 4 degrees warmer. AC Chattanooga Airport, TN 61 75 43 61 46 / 10 90 50 20 80 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 61 75 43 59 45 / 10 90 60 10 80 Oak Ridge, TN 61 73 41 60 44 / 10 90 50 10 70 Tri Cities Airport, TN 56 76 42 58 44 / 10 80 70 10 80.
101 PM EST Sun Mar 6 2022 An upper-level ridge and strong southerly flow at the surface will pave the way to the warmest days of the year thus far. Previous Update: Surface pressure ridge centered offshore extending into the area. Upper ridge has shifted east and centered to the south of the area. with high temps in the low to mid 80s. Air mass continues to moderate and overnight with mostly clear skies, lows a little warmer than previous days around 60. High pressure aloft will remain in place on Monday for near record high temperatures.
High pressure centered over Bermuda with an expansive ridge extending westward into the central Gulf has resulted in fresh to strong breezes over the Florida Keys and surrounding coastal waters. As the high continues to trek eastward into the central Atlantic, breezes will slacken and winds will turn to the southeast within the next 24 to 36 hours. Positioning of the ridge will dominate our weather for this week as a robust north to south gradient in precipitable water is being guided by the ridge. There is still quite a bit of disagreement between models in where the ridge will sit, with GFS remaining more northward, resulting a prolonged period of increased rain chances, while the NBM and ECMWF park the ridge more south, keeping rain chances near normal.
Deep complex upper trough remains over western states.
A wintry mix of sleet and freezing rain remains possible across north central Oklahoma. Any impacts from the winter precipitation should be minimal given the temperatures are only near freezing (and in some cases above freezing) and the relatively short duration.
646 PM EST Sun Mar 6 2022 Above average temperatures persist as the high pressure remains aloft over the region. High pressure will continue to ridge into the northeastern Gulf of Mexico from the Atlantic, with winds remaining around 15 knots or less and seas of no more than 3 feet. A few showers will be possible each of the next couple of afternoon/evenings, with the highest chances along the coast.
Due to a persistent deep layer return flow, there is a good bit of moisture in the lower levels, and any cap remaining from today is expected to break down as moisture deepens into the mid-levels.
Any light snow will be ending by midnight with clearing skies as the upper wave continues to move out and ridging/subsidence builds in behind it. Monday will be sunny as weak upper level ridging continues over the area. It will be on the chilly side with highs only reaching the lower 40s at best.
A brief warm up is on the way for Monday ahead of a potent cold front that will bring much of the area back into the Montana Winter. In the wake of this upper level disturbance, tomorrow will start out on the warm side, as the strong March sunshine quickly warms most of the area into the low 40s. While this system no longer appears to be the long duration event we thought it would be a few days ago, tomorrow's cold front could still be quite impactful. This is because the cold front will likely be accompanied by an intense band of snow, or a snow squall, as it makes its way through the area from north to south. In addition, temperatures will quickly fall below freezing behind this front.
With some additional forcing from a trailing upper low, some isolated snow showers could make their way into the east/southeast portions of the forecast area.
426 PM MST Sun Mar 6 2022 Light snow has been persistent across much of the area this morning and early this afternoon associated with this second low passing through the large scale upper level troughing over the western CONUS.
High pressure will remain west of the area with low pressure trough over the rockies the next couple of days. The strongest winds are expected along the ridge line by Jarbo Gap.
210 PM MST Sun Mar 6 2022 Light snow has been persistent across much of the area this morning and early this afternoon associated with this second low passing through the large scale upper level troughing over the western CONUS.
Earlier showers that skirted the northwest corner of Middle Tennessee have all moved to our north and this should leave us rain-free until the next round of activity enters the mid state after midnight ahead of an approaching cold front. So that will leave us with gusty surface winds and an increasing low-level jet that will contribute to some LLWS ahead of tomorrow's anticipated cold front.
A slight warming trend will occur through early in the week as high pressure builds over the eastern Pacific. Aside from patchy cumulus clouds developing over the higher terrain, mainly clear sky conditions prevail over the region this afternoon. A gradual warming trend will occur heading into the start of the work week as high pressure over the eastern Pacific builds toward the West Coast.
705 PM EST Sun Mar 6 2022 Well above normal temperatures will continue Monday as offshore high pressure maintains southerly winds.
This frontal boundary will move through the northern half of the region overnight bringing flurries to the lower valleys, up to an inch in the higher valleys and one to four inches in the mountains generally along and north of the I-70 corridor.
649 PM EST Sun Mar 6 2022 An upper-level ridge and strong southerly flow at the surface are currently in place over the region. Upper-level ridging remains in place over the region this evening. At the surface, high pressure centered to our east near Bermuda will continue to produce southerly flow during the overnight hours with winds generally in the 3-8mph range. High pressure aloft will remain in place on Monday for near record high temperatures.
Calumet and Manitowoc County will see the highest snowfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches.
302 PM MST Sun Mar 6 2022 A brief warm up is on the way for Monday ahead of a potent cold front that will bring much of the area back into the Montana Winter. In the wake of this upper level disturbance, tomorrow will start out on the warm side, as the strong March sunshine quickly warms most of the area into the low 40s. While this system no longer appears to be the long duration event we thought it would be a few days ago, tomorrow's cold front could still be quite impactful. This is because the cold front will likely be accompanied by an intense band of snow, or a snow squall, as it makes its way through the area from north to south. In addition, temperatures will quickly fall below freezing behind this front.
449 PM MST Sun Mar 6 2022 The main area of snow is shifting southeast as the trough axis nears Denver. Another little trough will move from Idaho towards the Four Corners tomorrow, providing more cold air aloft and creating a little lift over central Colorado.
939 PM EST Sun Mar 6 2022 Well above normal temperatures will continue Monday as offshore high pressure maintains southerly winds.
226 PM MST Sun Mar 6 2022 Upper ridging tomorrow brings a short reprieve to the cold weather the area has seen the last few days for tomorrow. Emphasis on the "short" because a fast moving cold front will move through tomorrow afternoon and bring a quick shot of some rain and snow with it.
Precipitation is expected to transition fairly rapidly from rain to snow once surface temperatures decrease below freezing. Once the upper level wave propelling this system exits the region Monday afternoon, NW upper level flow and high pressure return across the central CONUS bringing a couple days of clear skies. This encourages temperatures once again to rise into the high 40s and low 50s.
The weather pattern for much of this week will remain open to weather systems moving into the area before a possible pattern shift late in the week could bring a prolonged period of warmer temperatures to the region. The first system will bring gusty winds and slightly cooler conditions to the area Monday.
A lull will occur this evening until the cold front pushes into the Mid-South. With adequate forcing and sufficient instability, storms that form along cold front will likely become severe with damaging winds being the main threat. Cooler temperatures will filter into the area behind the front.
Clear skies are expected to return for Monday, but it will still remain on the colder side as the upper trough slowly pushes east.
Light snow has been persistent across much of the area this morning and early this afternoon associated with this second low passing through the large scale upper level troughing over the western CONUS.
312 PM CST Sun Mar 6 2022 18z data has the cold front running from the eastern Great Lakes into northern Arkansas. With warm air still aloft across the southeast third of the area, the rain or rain/snow mix is expected to develop into a mix of freezing rain and snow while snow continues across the northwest two thirds of the area. If this occurs, then precipitation amounts 'may' be on the low side across the southeast third of the area. Any lingering freezing rain will quickly turn over to all snow around sunrise Monday with snow ending from southwest to northeast during the morning hours.
Afternoon GOES WV imagery depicts a mid-level trough opening and pivoting across the Plains this afternoon, with convection initializing along a slow moving frontal zone that extends from the Red River Valley of Texas, through the Ohio River Valley, and up towards New England. As dry air wraps into the low, loss of cloud ice could result in a brief period of freezing drizzle in locations north of I-72 where up to a tenth of an inch of flat ice is possible.
Next shot of snow will move in later on MOnday as the extending edge of a cold front swings through the area, bringing with it a shot of moisture and providing lift via upslope flow.
(The rest of tonight) Cold front has pushed through the remainder of far southeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas counties this evening with the tornado threat quickly diminishing. A few severe storms will remain possible along/north of cold front for the remainder of the evening hours as elevated CAPE remains in the 500-750 J/kg range. Also added low snow chances across far northeast Oklahoma near the Kansas border this evening as temperatures fall to near freezing.
305 PM MST Sun Mar 6 2022 The main area of snow is shifting southeast as the trough axis nears Denver. Another little trough will move from Idaho towards the Four Corners tomorrow, providing more cold air aloft and creating a little lift over central Colorado.
With some additional forcing from a trailing upper low, some isolated snow showers could make their way into the east/southeast portions of the forecast area. Localized and limited-accumulating snow showers in the west- northwest wind snow belts behind the departed low pressure system are expected to persist tonight. Southern and eastern parts of the UP can expect more widespread precip chances spreading southwest to northeast Monday morning from a weaker low pressure system moving through IN/OH/west PA. As this low moves well southeast of the UP, high pressure in the Central Plains will extend a ridge northeastward into far northeastern Ontario. A few overnight snow showers cannot be completely ruled out in Luce County Monday evening as the ridge pushes eastward over the lake.
Arctic cold front to bring snow, gusty winds and colder. It appears that the arctic cold front could make it into Marias Pass as early as 7 or 8 pm Monday evening, then continue to track westward into northwest Montana and also into Powell and Granite counties by Monday night. Models have also trended snow amounts down, especially across northwest Montana, this is probably due in part from the quicker timing of the cold front passage. The higher probability for greater than 3 and 4 inches continues to be the Clearwater Mountains, mountains of west-central and southwest Montana and the higher elevations of Lemhi County.
545 PM CST Sun Mar 6 2022 A cold front will bring showers and thunderstorms across the area this evening and overnight.