Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT WITH RAIN CHANCES SLIGHTLY INCREASING AT THE CRP/VCT TAF SITES. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE DURING THE OVERNIGHT WITH THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. COLD TEMPS EXPECTED TONIGHT YET NAM DETERMINISTIC SOUNDINGS NOT CONDUCIVE TO FROZEN/FREEZING PCPN. THE COASTAL TROUGH WL THUS INCREASE THE LIKELIHOOD OF PCPN OVER THE MSA OVERNIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY. DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURGE WL CONTRIBUTE TO SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER MAX TEMPS WEDNESDAY.
356 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015 EARLY THIS MORNING AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WAS EVIDENT IN SATELLITE/WV LOOP AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS FROM THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE EXTENDING INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS. UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF MID LEVEL HEIGHT RISES OCCURRING TOMORROW IN ITS WAKE WHICH WILL BRING ONE MORE DAY OF REASONABLE TEMPERATURES. AS IS OFTEN THE CASE IN THIS AREA WITH ARCTIC AIR MASS INTRUSIONS WE WILL NEED TO WATCH THE MAGNITUDE AND DEPTH OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND POTENTIAL FOR SATURATION IN THE SUB-DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE THAT COULD LEAD TO PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE.
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE NE OK SITES WITH LOWERING CIGS BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW READILY NOTED ON WV IMAGERY CONTINUES TO DIG ESE ACROSS SRN NM. AND PRECIP SHIELD WILL BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED OVERNIGHT ALONG AND JUST N OF THE PATH OF THE UPPER LOW. WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS FARTHER S AS YOU APPROACH THE RED RIVER.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND EVENTUALLY DEGRADE INTO AN OPEN WAVE AS IT SLIDES EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT THEN INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TOMORROW. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TOMORROW SHIFTING WINDS TO MORE OF A NORTHERLY DIRECTION. HIGHS TOMORROW HAVE BEEN THE MAIN FORECASTING CHALLENGE DUE TO THE SPEED OF THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT, CLOUD COVERAGE, AND HOW MUCH SNOW WILL MELT THIS AFTERNOON. AS OF NOW HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S ACROSS FAR WESTERN KANSAS TO UPPER 40S ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS. ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC COLD WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS INTO THE REGION.
DEEP MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE LATE TODAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO PUSHES TO THE NORTHEAST AND DEEPENS. AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO PUSH NORTHEAST AND TOWARD THE CAROLINA COAST.
NEXT EXPANSIVE AREA OF ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY BUILD INTO THE REGION OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. AND A BIT HIGHER ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG THE NORTH SHORE WHERE SOME LOCAL GUSTS FROM 15 TO 20 MPH MAY PERSIST FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT. AN UPPER TROUGH ALOFT WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE NORTHLAND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHILE AN ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS SOUTHEAST OVER THE REGION. THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER THAT WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AND WE WILL CONTINUE TO GO WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. WE HAVE LOWS FROM THE LOWER TWENTIES BELOW ZERO ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER TO THE TEENS BELOW MOST OTHER AREAS. WE KEPT WINDS FOR MOST AREAS BELOW ABOUT 8 MPH WEDNESDAY NIGHT DESPITE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN.
445 AM EST WED FEB 25 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND CURRENTLY JUST ENTERING NORTHWESTERN OHIO WILL TRANSITION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING AND EAST OF THE RIDGES BY AROUND NOON TODAY. CURRENT TEMPERATURES HAVE ONLY DROPPED ABOUT 5 DEGREES ON AVERAGE FROM YESTERDAYS HIGHS AS STRONGER SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT HAVE KEPT THE LOWER LEVELS MIXED. MOISTURE IS LACKING THE LOWER LEVELS.
304 AM EST WED FEB 25 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TODAY WHILE LOW PRESSURE PASSES BY OFFSHORE.
1157 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015 MVFR/VFR ATTM WITH A RETURN TO MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AS STRONG CLOSED LOW OVER SE NM ATTM MOVES ACROSS OVER THE ARKLATEX BY 09Z AND THROUGH 21Z. TEMPS HAVE ALREADY REACHED OR FALLEN BELOW FREEZING AS OF 03-04Z.
IF PRECIP BEGINS BEFORE THAT THERE IS STILL A VERY SMALL CHANCE THAT A WARM AIR INTRUSION ALOFT COULD PRODUCE SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN. MEANWHILE A MIX CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE SOUTHWEST CWA WHERE WARMER AIR ALOFT WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION.
GENERALLY WESTERLY WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY TURN MORE SOUTHERLY AND INCREASE INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS WILL KEEP A LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST STEERING FLOW OVER SOUTH FLORIDA KEEPING THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE. THE FRONT WILL MOVE BACK NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT ON WEDNESDAY INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA. AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO.
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES OVER NORTH TX.
TEMPS HAVE ALREADY REACHED OR FALLEN BELOW FREEZING AS OF 03-04Z.
THE COMBINATION OF WINDS AND CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES MUCH WARMER TONIGHT. MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF VERMONT. MID/UPPER LVL TROF DEEPENS ACROSS THE NE CONUS. AS A SURFACE COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS OUR CWA ON WEDS. WEDS OUR HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM M/U TEENS MTNS TO L/M 20S WARMER VALLEYS.
424 AM EST WED FEB 25 2015 DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
154 AM EST WED FEB 25 2015 WEAK COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING. LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES TO OUR SOUTH LATE TONIGHT.
WE MAY SEE SLIGHTLY WARMER HIGHS AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND POSSIBLY THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF SOUTHWEST IOWA. NORTHWEST SURFACE FLOW BECOMES SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE FROM EASTERN MONTANA TO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. A WARM NOSE ALOFT WILL BE MOVING INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AHEAD OF THE LOW WHICH WILL RESULT IN POSSIBLY FREEZING RAIN IN PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. EVEN THOUGH WE WILL HAVE A FREEZING RAIN MENTION IN THE FORECAST.
SOME PATCHY FREEZING FOG THIS MORNING. WILL NOT BE ISSUING A FREEZING FOG ADVISORY SINCE IT'S VERY PATCHY AND CONFINED TO THE VALLEYS AND OTHER TYPICALLY FOGGY LOCATIONS, BUT THAT BEING SAID TRAVEL ON THIS MORNING COMMUTE COULD BE HAZARDOUS FOR SOME UNTIL THIS STUFF BURNS OFF LATER THIS MORNING.
AS UPPER SYSTEM NEARS AND PRECIP FALL FURTHER MOISTENING IN THE LOWER LEVELS DROPPING CIGS AND VISBY FURTHER WITH LIFR CIGS POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES 35+ ACROSS THE AREA AND THINKING THAT WITH PEAK PRECIPITATION 10-15Z WITH THE PASSAGE OF UPPER TROUGH MAY SEE A MIX OF SNOW WITH RAIN AT CLL/UTS TERMINALS. /ISSUED 913 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015/ FOR SE TX SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE CONTINUING WITH FCST OF PCPN DE- VELOPING FROM THE WEST TONIGHT/OVERNIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER LOW/TROF.
1249 AM EST WED FEB 25 2015 WEAK COLD FRONT EARLY WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM GRAZES THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ELSEWHERE THE SUNSHINE HAS TEMPERATURES NEARING FREEZING IN THE SW LOWLANDS THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
SFC REPORTS SHOW A MIXTURE OF FREEZING RAIN / SLEET ONGOING WITH TEMPS JUST AROUND FREEZING BENEATH THE HEAVIER PRECIP. WITH AN INITIAL ONSET OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET QUICKLY TRANSITIONING TOWARD ALL SNOW AS THE STRONGER LIFT APPROACHES. LATEST DATA SUGGEST SFC TEMPS TO REMAIN VERY NEAR FREEZING WITH A SLOW TREND UPWARD THROUGH MID MORNING. MILD TEMPS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL MAKE FOR A PLEASANT DAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT STRONG COLD FRONT WHICH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT.
252 AM EST WED FEB 25 2015 LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES TO OUR SOUTH LATE TONIGHT.
THE PRECIP SHOULD TAPER OFF BY MID MORNING AND WE WILL SEE DECREASING CLOUDS MOVE SOUTH AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT AS THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG SOUTHEASTWARD. WINDS WILL DECREASE AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH MOVES DOWN INTO WESTERN ND.
1109 PM CST Tue Feb 24 2015 High pressure sitting over Texas today was allowing temperatures to be a bit warmer than the past few days.
FROM MID MORNING TO LATE AFTERNOON NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS DEVELOP AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING ARCTIC COLD FRONT. PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE A BIT AFTER 15Z FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AS SOME PRETTY GOOD MOISTURE IN THE 850-500MB LAYER MOVES THROUGH BEHIND THE TROUGH. SHOULD INITIALLY BE SOME LIGHT SNOW AT THE BEGINNING BUT AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE LOW TO UPPER 40S EAST OF THE CO/KS BORDER (MID 30S TO AROUND 40 IN FAR EASTERN COLORADO) LIGHT RAIN SHOULD BE THE DOMINANT PRECIP TYPE. A COUPLE OF WEAK DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE MAIN GREAT LAKES TROUGH WILL BRING CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
THE LEAD TROF WILL BE THE POTENTIAL WX- MAKER WHICH WILL MOVE THRU 15Z-00Z. SURFACE: AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM HUDSON BAY THRU THE GREAT LAKES ACROSS IA TO LOW PRES OVER SD AND THEN NW INTO CANADA. THIS LOW WILL HEAD SE ACROSS NEB TODAY AND IN ITS WAKE THE FRONT WILL SURGE S TODAY AND WILL BE S OF THE FCST AREA BY SUNSET. SPOTTY ECHOES HAVE BEEN INCREASE THRU THE NIGHT SW OF THE LOW THRU THE BLACK HILLS INTO THE PANHANDLE. UPSTREAM SOUNDINGS SHOW A LOT OF DRY AIR IN THE LOW-LVLS. THE LOWEST CONFIDENCE PORTION OF THE FCST IS TEMPS. GUSTING 45-50 MPH IN THE TIGHT PRES GRADIENT/CAA BEHIND THE LOW. COLD FRONT PASSES THE TERMINALS AROUND 18Z WITH A BRIEF BURST OF POSSIBLY IFR SNOW.
1202 AM EST WED FEB 25 2015 AVIATION A COLD FRONT WILL TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES WILL TRACK INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE WEEKEND. THESE HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG PV ANOMALY CURRENTLY SLIDING SE ACROSS NRN LWR MI AND THE SFC COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH FROM THE SAME AREA. HOWEVER A STRENGTHENING COLD FRONT NEAR GREEN BAY WAS DIVING SOUTHEAST WITH A BROKEN LINE OF SNOW SQUALLS ALONG IT. CONSIDERING ANOTHER BRIEFER BURST OF SNOW ARRIVES WITH THE COLD FRONT. LOTS OF CLEARING SKIES BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS COOLER WITHIN GENTLY INCREASING COLD AIR ADVECTION. THE COLD FRONT WHICH APPEARED TO HANG- UP NEAR THE KEYS THIS AFTERNOON HAS NOW PUSHED THROUGH THE ISLAND CHAIN. MUCH OF THE LOWER KEYS WILL REACH INTO THE MID- UPPER 50S. UPSTREAM STRATO- CUMULUS WILL ATTEMPT TO SHROUD THE LOWER KEYS.
555 PM CST FRI FEB 13 2015 LATEST SFC ANALYSIS WAS INDICATING LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHEASTERN LK SUPERIOR. THE MAIN UPPER LOW/STRONG VORT MAX CURRENTLY SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ACRS THE WESTERN HUDSON BAY REGION. SOME SUNSHINE WILL BE POSSIBLE SAT AFTERNOON AS ARCTIC RIDGE AXIS PLOWS IT/S WAY DOWN ACRS CENTRAL IA.
A SOUTHWEST FLOW SETS UP FOR SATURDAY AS THE HIGH MOVES INTO THE GULF.
MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA WILL SEE LITTLE CHANGE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AS THE RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE. THERE IS A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT WILL RIDE ALONG SW FLOW OVER THE RIDGE. THE TREND IS STILL FOR THE RIDGE TO REFORM SLIGHTLY OFF THE COAST.
Expect most areas to see lows in the lower 40s, although a few of our normal low lying spots such as Brownwood, and valley locations along the I-10 corridor, could drop into the 30s.
BUT EXPECT THIS TO CHANGE AS RIDGE EXITS AND MIDLEVEL FLOW BACKS A BIT TOWARDS WEST. STRONG UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN ONTARIO DIVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY 12Z SATURDAY. THE POWERFUL UPPER LOW DIGS ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY. THE MAIN ACTION FOR OUR CWA COMES WITH THE PASSAGE OF AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WHICH SWINGS THROUGH FROM MID-MORNING THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON SATURDAY.
SO WILL USE A BLEND WHICH SUGGESTS UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER NORTHEASTERN SASKATCHEWAN WILL MOVE TO JUST NORTHEAST OF SAULT STE.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS MOVING ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE THIS EVENING, SETTING UP SOME RETURN FLOW IN ADVANCE OF TOMORROW'S COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES TOMORROW HAVE SOME VARIABILITY THANKS TO THE TIMING OF THE APPROACHING UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. THE WINDS SHOULD CALM DOWN LATER IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS HIGH PRESSURE AND A RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT SLIDE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.
A strong northwest flow pattern continued to dominate the central CONUS today, although slight height increases led to a temporary period of warmer temperatures as highs have ranged from the middle 40s in the eastern forecast area to mid 50s in north central KS. On Saturday morning, a strong cold front will move quickly through the forecast area with winds turning out of the north and gusting up to 30 mph at times.
A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER NORTHERN PORTIONS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY BEGINNING OF FCST HAS RIDGE FLATTENING WITH FIRST OF A FEW UPR LVL SW TROFS JUST STARTING TO MOVE THRU THE FA. RAIN OR MIXED CONDITIONS OVR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS TO START.
505 PM MST FRI FEB 13 2015 THE REX BLOCK IS FIRMLY IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON WITH 12Z H5 HAND ANALYSIS SHOWING THE LOW SEPARATED FROM THE FLOW AND STAGNATING OVER THE CENTRAL BAJA PENINSULA. THE STRONG WESTERN RIDGE AXIS HAS BEEN PUSHED FARTHER INLAND TODAY AS A COPIOUS AMOUNT OF NORTH PACIFIC ENERGY POOLS OFFSHORE.
A weak cold front will move through the region tonight bringing a chance of very light rain mainly to the mountains.
HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING IN BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH EARLIER TODAY.
645 PM CST FRI FEB 13 2015 THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE ARCTIC COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. AND GIVEN VERY STRONG CAA IN THE LOWER LEVELS AND 925MB. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD LIMIT EASTWARD EXTENT -SN BAND WITH NEXT WEAK CLIPPER AND KEPT THE DAY DRY. HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST SATURDAY NIGHT.
700 PM EST FRI FEB 13 2015 LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL PUSH LIGHT SNOW INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH BRINGING SNOW SQUALLS. BUT A FEW TO SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. RESULT WILL BE WHITEOUT CONDS AND GUSTY WINDS AS THE HIGHER MID LVL WINDS MIX DOWN TO THE SFC. BHD THE FNT THE LOW BEGINS TO BOMB OFF THE NEW ENG CST WITH AN INV TROF BACK TO THE WEST OF THE FCST AREA.
WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE NIGHT AS THE HIGH BUILDS SOUTHEAST OVER THE AREA WITH INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA AS THE HIGH DROPS SOUTHEAST. AFTER A VERY COLD DAY ON SATURDAY WITH AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING THE REGION.
THIS WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE FOR ONE MORE DAY AHEAD OF A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT.
930 PM CST FRI FEB 13 2015 A COOL EVENING WITH AREAWIDE INTERIOR TEMPERATURE READINGS FALLING ON THE LOW SIDE OF 55 F.
A COLD FRONT STRETCHED FROM WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR INTO NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA AT 20Z AND WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH TONIGHT REACHING NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND NORTHWEST IOWA LATE THIS EVENING AND FAR SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA BY SATURDAY MORNING.
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
DIFFUSE SURFACE RIDGING WILL PASS THROUGH OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF INCREASINGLY DEEP W-SW FLOW FROM THE SURFACE TO AROUND 12,000 FEET. SUBSEQUENT LEE TROUGHING FROM SERN CO TO ERN NM BY LATE SATURDAY MORNING WILL SUBJECT OUR AREA TO A BREEZY SW GRADIENT FLOW FOR MOST OF THE DAY. THE WARM TEMPS OF THE LAST LITTLE BIT WILL GIVE WAY TO MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS LATER THIS WEEKEND.
640 PM EST FRI FEB 13 2015 LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL PUSH LIGHT SNOW INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH BRINGING SNOW SQUALLS. RESULT WILL BE WHITEOUT CONDS AND GUSTY WINDS AS THE HIGHER MID LVL WINDS MIX DOWN TO THE SFC. BHD THE FNT THE LOW BEGINS TO BOMB OFF THE NEW ENG CST WITH AN INV TROF BACK TO THE WEST OF THE FCST AREA.
THE COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO BRING OUR NEXT ONSLAUGHT OF COLD CANADIAN AIR WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST THIS EVENING, ACROSS CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND EXTREME NORTHERN IOWA.
/ISSUED 143 PM CST Fri Feb 13 2015/ An upper ridge centered over the Western U.
CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK WITH PERIODS OF CLOUDS AS SOME ALTO CU AND CIRRUS BUILD IN AHEAD OF THE LAKES/MIDWEST SHORT WAVE TROUGH. BRIEF SHOT OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION STILL IN THE WORKS LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING SATURDAY WITH THE UPPER TROUGH.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF TODAY AND TONIGHT. WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW WILL SWITCH TO MORE WESTERLY BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS THE RIDGE FLATTENS OUT AHEAD OF THE NEXT FEATURE. WARMER AIRMASS AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TOMORROW WILL AID IN KEEPING TEMPERATURES MILD WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S FOR DENVER AND UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S FOR THE MOUNTAINS.
WITH LONG WAVE TROF OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. RIDGE IS IN PLACE OVER THE WESTERN STATES. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 10 OVER FAR NORTHWEST SD TO THE LOWER 30S OVER NORTHEAST WY. LIGHT PCPN AND AREAS OF FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN SD PLAINS INTO THE FOOTHILLS OF THE BLACK HILLS LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING AS THE MOISTURE POOLS AGAINST THE HIGHER TERRAIN. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN. FREEZING DRIZZLE.
339 PM MST FRI FEB 13 2015 THE REX BLOCK IS FIRMLY IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON WITH 12Z H5 HAND ANALYSIS SHOWING THE LOW SEPARATED FROM THE FLOW AND STAGNATING OVER THE CENTRAL BAJA PENINSULA. THE STRONG WESTERN RIDGE AXIS HAS BEEN PUSHED FARTHER INLAND TODAY AS A COPIOUS AMOUNT OF NORTH PACIFIC ENERGY POOLS OFFSHORE.
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE S-CTRL/SE CONUS WILL DROP SOUTHWARD INTO THE GOMEX OVERNIGHT WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING EWD INTO WRN FL. THE SEWD MOVING H50 SHORT WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE LWR MS VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SE OVERNIGHT. AND THAT FACT THAT LAV GUIDANCE KEEPS EVEN THE VILLAGES A COUPLE DEGS ABOVE FREEZING BY SUNRISE SAT.
EVEN WARMER AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TOMORROW FOR MOST OF THE REGION AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. MOST SOLUTIONS NOW AGREE THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NE OK NEAR LUNCHTIME SAT.
701 PM EST FRI FEB 13 2015 AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS.
THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE ARCTIC COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. AND GIVEN VERY STRONG CAA IN THE LOWER LEVELS AND 925MB. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD LIMIT EASTWARD EXTENT -SN BAND WITH NEXT WEAK CLIPPER AND KEPT THE DAY DRY. HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST SATURDAY NIGHT.
A RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST WILL BRING NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AND GIVEN THE STOUT UPPER RIDGE AND DRY AIR AHEAD OF IT. WHICH MAY ALLOW LOW TEMPS TO SETTLE A COUPLE DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY IN A FEW PLACES. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO AMPLIFY ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND ANOTHER ROUND OF HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY NUDGE UPWARD A FEW DEGREES THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS WELL DUE TO THE BUILDING RIDGE. TO THE LOW 60S ALONG THE COAST AND IN SOME INTERIOR VALLEYS WHERE FOG IS PERSISTENT THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
520 PM CST FRI FEB 13 2015 WARM FRONT HAS PUSHED EAST OF THE AREA. COLD FRONT IS FAST APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH. MAIN FOCUS WILL BE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT. THE EXCEPTION IS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE WEST/SOUTHWEST WHERE CLOSER TO -5C IS EXPECTED. AS THE COLD FRONT SLIDES SOUTH EXPECT AN INCREASE OF LOWER CLOUDS AND INCREASING NORTHERLY/NORTHEASTERLY WINDS. SOME CONCERN INITIALLY COULD SEE SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE AS SATURATION OCCURS ABOVE WIDESPREAD ICE CRYSTAL DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER LATER ARRIVE OF CLOUDS AND SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS ALOFT ACROSS FAR SW SHOULD HELP TO PUSH TEMPS TO AROUND 40.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FLATTENING IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM COMING ONTO THE WASHINGTON COAST THAT WILL CLIP THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY.
WE EXPECT FOG TO DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS AND PORTIONS OF THE HIGHWAY 77 CORRIDOR AND WE/LL CONTINUE TO MENTION THIS IN THE LATEST FORECAST.
FREEZING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ACROSS THE NATURE COAST TONIGHT. COOL DRY AIR ADVECTION AND A DEVELOPING LIGHT NORTHERLY DRAINAGE FLOW WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL TO OR BELOW FREEZING FROM PASCO COUNTY NORTH THROUGH THE NATURE COAST DURING EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WHERE FREEZE WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT. EVEN THOUGH SOME FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FROM PASCO COUNTY NORTH SURFACE WINDS REMAINING IN THE 3-5 MPH RANGE COMBINED WITH HIGH ENOUGH TEMPERATURE DEW POINT SPREADS (5-7 DEGREES) SHOULD KEEP FROST OUT OF THE FORECAST. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH AND SUBSIDE ON SATURDAY AS THE HIGH NOSES EAST SOME WITH DELIGHTFUL BOATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
551 PM CST FRI FEB 13 2015 ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING AND SATURDAY. WITH THE HIGHEST ACCUMULATION MAINLY DURING THE MORNING HOURS. SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE COLDEST OF THE CURRENT ARCTIC PUSH WITH TEMPS IN THE -15 TO -25 RANGE AS THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE MOVES OVER THE FORECAST AREA. AS THE RIDGE MOVES EAST OF THE REGION.
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE ALONG WITH HIGH AND MID CLOUDS AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION.
A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE WEST COAST THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE WEST COAST WILL RESULT IN FAIR WEATHER AND JUST SOME MINOR FLUCTUATIONS IN DAY-TO-DAY TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA IN THE AFTERNOON AND BRING GUSTY NORTH WINDS. EVEN WARMER AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TOMORROW FOR MOST OF THE REGION AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. MOST SOLUTIONS NOW AGREE THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NE OK NEAR LUNCHTIME SAT.
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING AND SATURDAY. WITH THE HIGHEST ACCUMULATION MAINLY DURING THE MORNING HOURS. SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE COLDEST OF THE CURRENT ARCTIC PUSH WITH TEMPS IN THE -15 TO -25 RANGE AS THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE MOVES OVER THE FORECAST AREA. AS THE RIDGE MOVES EAST OF THE REGION.
554 PM CST Fri Feb 13 2015 Arctic cold front currently across the Upper Midwest will drop southward into north-central Illinois tonight, reaching the I-74 corridor by dawn Saturday. Overnight low temperatures will mainly be in the lower to middle 20s, but will drop into the teens north of a Canton to Bloomington-Normal line. The trailing cold front will dive across the area early Saturday, with temperatures falling through most of the day.
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM EAST TENNESSEE THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI INTO EAST TEXAS. TEMPS ARE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S ACROSS MOST OF THE MIDSOUTH WITH NE WINDS AROUND 10 MPH. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S OVER NORTHEAST ARKANSAS TO LOWER 60S ACROSS NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI.
723 PM EDT TUE APR 14 2015 HIGH PRESSURE IN THE GREAT LAKES AND LOW PRESSURE IN THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL HAVE A COOL AIRMASS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WITH RAIN ENDING OVER THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY. THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH DRIER AND SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR TO THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
18Z SFC ANALYSIS HAS THE HIGH FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH A WEAK LOW IN THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. QUIET AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MIDNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
WARM FRONT EXPECTED FROM NEAR FLAGLER TO CHEYENNE WELLS WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS BEHIND IT AND SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF IT. ACTIVE WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. LEANED HEAVILY ON A CANADIAN/EUROPEAN BLEND FOR THIS UPCOMING SYSTEM AS THESE TWO PIECES OF GUIDANCE HAVE BEEN MOST CONSISTENT WITH THE TRACK/TIMING OF THIS DEVELOPING UPPER LOW. GEFS ENSEMBLES ALSO CONFIRM THIS SCENARIO WITH MANY MEMBERS AGREEING WITH CANADIAN/EUROPEAN UPPER LOW MOVEMENT. TEMPERATURES APPEAR WARMER WITH THIS GUIDANCE SO LIMITED SNOW CHANCES PREVIOUSLY FORECAST TO EAST COLORADO. A COLD FRONT RUSHES SOUTH AND WITH SIGNIFICANT PRESSURE RISES.
UPPER RIDGING MOVING OVER THE PLAINS WILL HEAD OFF INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST TONIGHT AS THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH ARRIVES IN THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST. THE MAIN UPPER LOW WILL BE DIGGING INTO THE ROCKIES. THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE WITH SOME RELAXING TOWARDS THE END OF THE DAY AS THE TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES.
759 PM EDT TUE APR 14 2015 AVIATION A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BUILD EAST TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
WENT SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST WHICH WAS MORE IN LINE WITH THE MAVMOS. AS SOUNDINGS REMAIN VERY DRY IN THE LOWER LEVELS AND HAVE A SHALLOW AREA OF SATURATION ALOFT.