Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
THE LOW WILL EXIT ACROSS THE MARITIMES FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED ABOVE FREEZING AND THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. LOW PRES DEVELOPING ON THE WARM FRONT THIS EVENING WILL MOVE ACROSS THE BAY FUNDY LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. LOW PRESSURE WILL EXIT THROUGH THE MARITIMES ON FRIDAY. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AND TRACK NORTHEAST TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THE WESTERN EDGE OF PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW MAY CLIP DOWN EAST MAINE DURING FRIDAY AND INTO FRIDAY EVENING. JUST HOW CLOSE THE LOW TRACKS WILL DETERMINE THE EXTENT AND TYPE OF PRECIPITATION. THE LOW WILL EXIT FRIDAY NIGHT WITH ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION ENDING ALONG WITH MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES NORTH AND PARTLY CLOUDY DOWNEAST.
/ISSUED 1007 AM CST THU DEC 17 2015/ WX MAP SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SE ACROSS TX/LA THIS MORNING. /ISSUED 521 AM CST THU DEC 17 2015/ COOLER AND DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE CDFNT THAT CROSSED THE AREA ON WED. WITH LOWS SAT AM NEARING THE FREEZING MARK OVER INTERIOR SE TX AND CENTRAL LA.
AN APPROACHING H500 RIDGE AND THE H500 DEPARTING COLD LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES SHOULD GIVE THE REGION A COOL AND QUIET DAY. HIGHS WILL BE SINGLE DIGITS NORTH CENTRAL TO THE LOWER 20S SOUTHWEST.
THE COLD FRONT IS NOW TO THE SOUTHEAST BUT CLOUD COVER EXTENDS TO THE WEST OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING IN COOLER AIR ACROSS THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD HOLD IN THE 50S THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THE COLD FRONT IS NOW AT THE KMSL TERMINAL AND CIGS AND VIS HAVE IMPROVED TO MVFR AND WILL INCREASE TO VFR BETWEEN 14-15Z.
BUT SHOULD HELP PUSH DOWN A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT INTO OUR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES ALONG WITH SOME CLOUDS. TEMPS OVERNIGHT WILL BE A BIT COOLER THAN THE LAST FEW AS THE COOLER AIR PUSHES THE REST OF THE WAY THROUGH THE CWA. TEMPS TOMORROW SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY BUT STILL IN THE LOW 20S WITH A WESTERLY FETCH TO THE WIND CONTINUING AND WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION LATE IN THE DAY.
A CLOUDY/COOLER WEEKEND AND LOOKING QUITE WET SUNDAY. LATEST SFC OBS INDICATE COLD FRONT HAS SHIFTED SOUTH OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE THIS MORNING AND IS EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN AND STALL ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY AS MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE CROSSES FLORIDA AND INDUCES AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TOWARD THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS ALONG STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND MODERATE NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND THE BOUNDARY WILL LEAD TO DAYTIME TEMPERATURES THAT ARE COOLER THAN NORMAL IN THE 50S TO 60S OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. (PREVIOUS DISCUSSION) COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTH TO NEAR THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS AND BECOME QUASI STATIONARY. GUIDANCE SHOWS SPEEDS GRADUALLY PICKING UP TO 15-20 KNOTS AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE NOSING IN BEHIND FRONT TIGHTENS THE GRADIENT SLIGHTLY.
545 AM CST SAT JAN 2 2016 WATER VAPOR SATELLITE THIS MORNING SHOWS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EXTENDING FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY UP THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO SOUTHWEST CANADA. SHORT WAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW ARE EXPECTED TO CROSS THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS LOOKS TO BE THE ONLY CHANCE FOR ANY PRECIPITATION INTO THE START OF THE NEW WORK WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL THEN BUILD IN OVER THE REGION. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL MIGRATE EAST ACROSS THE MIDWEST THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK.
627 AM EST SAT JAN 2 2016 LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM MONTANA TO TEXAS.
AN UPPER LOW CENTERED ALONG THE NRN CA-NV BORDER TRACKS NORTHWARD THROUGH CENTRAL OREGON TODAY. MTNS WILL SEE TEMPS A FEW DEGREES COOLER GIVEN PASSAGE OF THE COLD-CORE UPPER LOW. THE UPPER FLOW SHIFTS TO THE SW ON SUNDAY BRINGING IN A WARMER AIRMASS. THUS SLOWING THE INTRUSION OF WARMER AIR FROM ALOFT.
MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S ARE FORECAST. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN THE WINTER'S CHILLIEST AIR TO DATE ON SUNDAY.
MODERATING TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO RETURN FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD. SHORT TERM GUIDANCE AGREES IN DROPPING A SLIGHTLY STRONGER SECONDARY COLD FRONT DOWN THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT.
TEMPS PRIOR TO DAWN RANGED FROM THE MIDDLE 30S TO THE LOWER 40S. FOR SUNDAY A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL COME THROUGH THE ARKLAMISS WHICH WILL HELP TO CLEAR THE CLOUDS FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. MIDLEVEL RIDGING WILL DEVELOP INTO THE REGION ON SUNDAY NIGHT. RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD BE IMPAIRED BY THE HIGH CLOUDS.
938 AM CST SAT JAN 2 2016 MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE WESTWARD EXTENT OF CLOUDS ADVANCING SOUTH BEHIND BACK DOOR COLD FRONT. BUT SHOULD HELP PUSH DOWN A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT INTO OUR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES ALONG WITH SOME CLOUDS. TEMPS OVERNIGHT WILL BE A BIT COOLER THAN THE LAST FEW AS THE COOLER AIR PUSHES THE REST OF THE WAY THROUGH THE CWA. TEMPS TOMORROW SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY BUT STILL IN THE LOW 20S WITH A WESTERLY FETCH TO THE WIND CONTINUING AND WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION LATE IN THE DAY.
BUT THE LOWER LEVELS ARE STILL WORKING ON CATCHING UP. THE REALLY COLD AIR IS GETTING LIMITED TO THE LOW LYING POCKETS LIKE THE BOTTOM OF THE MOUNTAIN PARKS AND THE SOUTH PLATTE VALLEY BETWEEN GREELEY AND FORT MORGAN. BORDERING AREAS ARE STILL COLD BUT WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT. AND THE BETTER MIXED AREAS QUITE A BIT WARMER. WARMER IF IT THICKENS EARLY.
A NORTHWEST FLOW TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA MAINLY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
A BROAD 500 MB TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE BAJA CALI PENINSULA AND NORTHERN MEXICO WILL MOVE EAST TODAY AND TONIGHT. AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES THE 500 MB VORTICITY WILL INCREASE ALOFT WHICH WILL ENHANCE THE RAINFALL OVER THE REGION THROUGHOUT TODAY AND TONIGHT. AT THE SURFACE THE INVERTED COASTAL TROFFING WILL ALSO PROVIDE SURFACE CONVERGENCE WHICH WILL ALSO ENHANCE THE RAINFALL AMOUNTS TODAY. THE 500 MB TROUGH AXIS WILL CLEAR THROUGH THE RGV LATER TONIGHT INTO SUN WHICH WILL ALLOW DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL FINALLY SHUT OFF THE RAINFALL AS WEAK 500 MB RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THE ECMWF WANTS TO HOLD ONTO POPS INTO SUN WITH THE NAM AND GFS DRYING THINGS OUT QUICKER WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH AXIS.
WITH MINIMAL DIURNAL HEATING THE LOW CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY LIFT TODAY BUT IT IS STILL GOING TO BE A GRAY AND CHILLY DAY INTO THE EVENING HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTHWEST OF AREA WATERS TODAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL FL ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. AREA WATERS WILL BE BETWEEN THE HIGH TO THE NORTHWEST AND THE DEVELOPING LOW. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE WATERS EARLY IN THE WEEK.
THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE REMAINS DRY IN ALL FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR THE REGION. /ISSUED 435 AM CST SAT JAN 2 2016/ CONTINUED CLOUD COVER OVER THE REGION WILL KEEP MORNING LOWS IN THE LOW 30S NEAR THE RED RIVER TO THE LOW 40S ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS. SOME OF THESE AREAS MAY BE BELOW FREEZING.
Rain chances will be near zero today since the cold front is well to the south.
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 49 30 52 29 / 0 0 10 10 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 46 28 49 26 / 0 0 10 10 OAK RIDGE, TN 47 29 49 27 / 0 0 10 10 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 47 23 46 23 / 0 0 10 10.
A LOW STATUS DECK IS FIRMLY ENTRENCHED OVER THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN AND SURROUNDING VALLEYS INCLUDING THE DESCHUTES AREA NORTHWARD THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL OREGON AND THE YAKIMA VALLEY. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE TODAY WHICH WILL KEEP THE STRATUS IN PLACE. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL BE DRIFTING NORTH TO NORTHWEST TOWARD THE OREGON AND WASHINGTON COAST. IF ENOUGH WARM AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION AND PUSHES TEMPERATURES ALOFT ABOVE FREEZING THERE COULD BE SOME FREEZING RAIN.
This morning's 12z KTAE sounding reveals a dry layer in the low levels behind a surface cold front, but it remains moist in the mid levels with the subtropical jet stream bringing mid level moisture to the region. These mid and high level clouds will continue to stream across the area today with afternoon high temperatures expected to range from the mid 50s across the north to the lower 60s across the southeast big bend. With strong high pressure well north of the waters through the middle of the week, moderate offshore winds are expected to continue.
951 AM EST SAT JAN 2 2016 COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY.
BUT THE LOW CEILING HAS HUNG ON ALONG WITH A LITTLE LIGHT DRIZZLE IN SOME SPOTS. WE SHOULD SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE LOW CLOUDS AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. THE LOW LEVEL EASTERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD RELAX UNTIL A MODERATE REINFORCEMENT SUNDAY EVENING.
341 AM MST SAT JAN 2 2016 QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE REGION REMAINS SADDLED BETWEEN SYSTEMS TO THE WEST AND A DEEP TROUGH WELL TO THE EAST. OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS THE CUTOFF LOW TO THE WEST LIFTS NORTHWARD AS A DEEPER TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST SUPPLANTS IT. AS THIS OCCURS FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY AS A RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL DRIVE WARMER AIR ACROSS THE REGION WITH 7H TEMPS RISING BY ABOUT 6 DEG C TODAY.
545 AM EST SAT JAN 2 2016 NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH THE NEXT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS LATE SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. CLOUD COVERAGE WILL DECREASE THIS MORNING ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE WAVE LEAVING PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES BY AFTERNOON WITH GENERAL SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE TROUGH. TONIGHT AND MUCH OF SUNDAY WILL BE VERY SIMILAR WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES BEFORE A DIGGING TROUGH DROPS OVER THE REGION WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE WESTERN US AND CANADIAN AREAS. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN WEST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN TODAY AND WINDS WILL HAVE MORE OF A NORTHWEST COMPONENT COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. SLIGHTLY COOLER READINGS THAN YESTERDAY ARE LIKELY. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO PARK OVER THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING.
909 AM EST SAT JAN 2 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE REGION TODAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY.
High pressure dominates the area under a persistent ridge in a blocking pattern. This will allow some stratus to break up and some deeper mixing, allowing for overall warmer temperatures in the valleys.
THE MAIN H5 TROUGH OVERHEAD WILL SLOWLY LIFT EAST AND NORTH THROUGH TODAY. THE EXITING TROUGH WILL ALLOW FOR RAIN CHANCES TO GRADUALLY DECREASE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. BROAD RIDGING AND RELATIVELY WARMER TEMPS IN THE MIDLEVEL WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO WARM IN THE LOW TO MID 50S SUNDAY.
940 AM EST SAT JAN 2 2016 COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED INTO FORT MYERS AREA. LARGE AREA OF IFR/MVFR CIGS NORTH OF COLD FRONT IN SOUTH FLORIDA.
634 AM EST SAT JAN 2 2016 COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST TO BEGIN THE WEEKEND.
538 AM CST SAT JAN 2 2016 DRY WEATHER CONTINUES TO BE EXPECTED FOR THE SHORT TERM AS WE WILL BE WITHIN SPLIT FLOW WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. A COLD HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SETTLES INTO THE PLAINS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
SURFACE RIDGING OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL KEEP WINDS LIGHT/CALM THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THE SECOND UPDATE WAS TO INCREASE WINDS ACROSS THE RIDGES OF NORTHERN MOUNTAINS FOR TODAY. WINDS HAVE BEEN RELAXING ACROSS THE RIDGES OF NORTHERN UTAH SINCE MIDNIGHT AS THE BASE OF THE INVERSION LAYER NEAR RIDGETOP HAS MOVED HIGHER ALLOWING A WIDER GAP BETWEEN THE RIDGETOP AND THE INVERSION FOR THE WINDS TO TRAVEL THROUGH. THIS INVERSION LAYER IS EXPECTED TO LOWER THROUGH TODAY WHICH MEANS THE WINDS ARE LIKELY TO INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY ONCE AGAIN WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH POSSIBLE OVER THE MOST EXPOSED HIGH RIDGES.
550 AM EST SAT JAN 2 2016 NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH THE NEXT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS LATE SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. CLOUD COVERAGE WILL DECREASE THIS MORNING ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE WAVE LEAVING PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES BY AFTERNOON WITH GENERAL SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE TROUGH. TONIGHT AND MUCH OF SUNDAY WILL BE VERY SIMILAR WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES BEFORE A DIGGING TROUGH DROPS OVER THE REGION WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
AS THE REX BLOCK LIFTED NORTH, MOISTURE QUICKLY SPREAD INTO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA FROM THE WEST AHEAD OF A RELATIVELY WEAK, BUT MOISTURE LADEN LOW PRESSURE AREA ABOUT 500 MILES WEST OF THE COAST. WITH THE CLOUD COVER, THE THREAT OF FOG, FROST AND FREEZING TEMPERATURES TONIGHT HAS ENDED.
435 AM CST SAT JAN 2 2016 CONTINUED CLOUD COVER OVER THE REGION WILL KEEP MORNING LOWS IN THE LOW 30S NEAR THE RED RIVER TO THE LOW 40S ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS. SOME OF THESE AREAS MAY BE BELOW FREEZING.
LOCAL RADARS ARE DETECTING ISOLATED SMALL SHOWERS SURROUNDING THE LOWER KEYS. A COLD FRONT IS DRAPED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL FLORIDA AND THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC AND GULF WATERS. EXPECT ISOLATED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 80S. ESPECIALLY OVER THE LOWER KEYS.
937 AM EST SAT JAN 2 2016 COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED INTO FORT MYERS AREA. LARGE AREA OF IFR/MVFR CIGS NORTH OF COLD FRONT IN SOUTH FLORIDA.
603 AM EST SAT JAN 2 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE REGION TODAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY.
851 AM EST SAT JAN 2 2016 NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH THE NEXT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS LATE SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. SATURATION ATOP THIS LAYER IS NEARLY COINCIDENT WITH THE LOWER END OF THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE FORECAST AREA. A BIT WARMER COLUMN HAS NOT BEEN CONDUCIVE TO CRYSTAL DEVELOPMENT. FRIES TONIGHT AND MUCH OF SUNDAY WILL BE VERY SIMILAR WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES BEFORE A DIGGING TROUGH DROPS OVER THE REGION WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
551 AM EST SAT JAN 2 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE FOR DRY CONDITIONS AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES TODAY INTO SUNDAY.
SEASONAL TEMPS ARE NOW IN PLACE AS HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHES FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO TX.
628 AM CST SAT JAN 2 2016 HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE WESTERN US AND CANADIAN AREAS. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN WEST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN TODAY AND WINDS WILL HAVE MORE OF A NORTHWEST COMPONENT COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. SLIGHTLY COOLER READINGS THAN YESTERDAY ARE LIKELY. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO PARK OVER THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING.
THE ANOMALOUSLY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE THAT'S BROUGHT THE DRY AND COLD CONDITIONS HAS ALSO BROUGHT SOME UNUSUAL WINDS FOR WEST SIDE VALLEYS. THE DRY AIR HAS PREVENTED FREEZING FOG FROM FORMING IN MOST LOCATIONS. THE COAST IS FREEZING THIS MORNING. SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY AFTER ANY PATCHES OF FREEZING FOG CLEAR. AND CONFIDENCE IS NOW BORDERING ON MODERATE FOR FREEZING RAIN OCCURRING SOMEWHERE IN THE WEST SIDE VALLEYS. EVEN COASTAL VALLEYS LIKE COQUILLE AND MYRTLE POINT HAVE THE CHANCE FOR FREEZING RAIN AS LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR FREEZING THERE. SO HAVE KEPT SURFACE TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING THERE. BUT IT DOESN'T TAKE MUCH FREEZING RAIN TO CREATE HAZARDOUS TRAVEL OR EVEN WALKING CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM TO ABOVE FREEZING IN THE WEST SIDE BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST FOR WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS.
621 AM EST SAT JAN 2 2016 COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. NOT MUCH CHANGE TO EARLIER THINKING THAT SUNDAY WILL BE FAIRLY QUIET WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST AND ENOUGH DOWNSLOPE FLOW E OF THE MTNS TO BRING HIGH TEMPS A FEW DEGREES ABOVE SATURDAY.
DISTURBANCES IN THIS FLOW WILL QUICKLY MOVE EAST OF OUR REGION DURING THE DAY SUNDAY WITH UPPER RIDGING UPSTREAM OF THE DISTURBANCES.
538 AM CST SAT JAN 2 2016 RELATIVELY BENIGN WEATHER TODAY AS THERMAL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE STATE. AT LEAST IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS.
COLD FRONT NOW ACROSS MINNESOTA SHOULD WORK INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. HIGH BRINGING MUCH COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR TO THE REGION.
THIS ACTIVITY WAS WITHIN AN UPPER TROUGH THAT EXTENDED FROM MONTANA THROUGH IDAHO. OREGON WAS UNDER AN UPPER RIDGE AND NO THUNDERSTORMS WERE OBSERVED THERE. THE UPPER TROUGH IN IDAHO WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT SO NO SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED IN OUR ZONES SUNDAY.
/ISSUED 231 PM PDT SAT JUL 18 2015/ LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST WILL PULL MOISTURE NORTH FROM THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE DOLORES.
625 PM CDT SAT JUL 18 2015 BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. A TROUGH IS PUSHING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. WITH A SUBTLE TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND THE RIDGE INTO SW NEB THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. IN THE MID TERM SOLUTIONS MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH FLATTENED SOUTHERN PLAINS RIDGE AND CUTOFF LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. ENERGY CONTINUES TO BE EJECTED OUT OF THE TROUGH TO THE WEST.
/ISSUED 333 PM CDT SAT JUL 18 2015/ THE HEAT SUPPLY IS GOING NOWHERE FAST UNDER OUR CURRENT SETUP AS THE UPPER RIDGE REMAINS FIRMLY ANCHORED DIRECTLY OVER OUR REGION.
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE SUNDAY AND WILL BE IN THE VICINITY EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK. BUT AFTER A TSHOWER GOES THROUGH TEMPS ARE GENERALLY DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 70S BRIEFLY BEFORE GRADUALLY CLIMBING BACK INTO THE LOW OT MID 80S. THUNDERSTORMS FORMING OUT AHEAD OF A WEAK UPPER LEVEL S/W TROUGH MAY APPROACH THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT. TONIGHT SHOULD BE RELATIVELY QUIET WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND SAID DRY AIR IN PLACE. A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL S/W TROUGH IS LIKELY TO GET CONVECTION FIRING YUP IN THE AFTERNOON AND MOVING INTO THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY BY THE END OF THE DAY.
1037 PM EDT SAT JUL 18 2015 A SURFACE PRESSURE TROUGH WILL BE IN THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. A LEE- SIDE TROUGH IN THE FORECAST AREA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. STRONG HEATING WITH CONVERGENCE INTO THIS FEATURE MAY SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS BUT UPPER RIDGING EXTENDING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST SHOULD LIMIT COVERAGE.
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 75 96 75 96 / 10 20 10 30 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 70 93 73 92 / 20 30 20 40 OAK RIDGE, TN 73 94 74 92 / 20 30 20 40 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 68 91 71 89 / 30 40 40 50.
AS WELL AS OVER NEARSHORE AND OFFSHORE GULF OF MEXICO WATERS WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE LOWER KEYS. IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. AN ATLANTIC RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA OVERNIGHT. A LARGE ANTICYCLONE WILL BE CENTERED NEAR THE TEXAS/LOUISIANA BORDER TONIGHT.
645 PM CDT SAT JUL 18 2015 COLD FRONT IS MOVING SLOWLY THROUGH THE ARROWHEAD AND NW WI. BUT ISOLD SHOWERS HAVE BEEN DIMINISHING AS BEST FORCING IS NOW IN CANADA NEAR THE UPPER LOW THAT HAS REACHED NW ONTARIO. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND WILL CAUSE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ON SUNDAY WITH LESS HUMID CONDITIONS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA SUNDAY EVENING.
716 PM CDT SAT JUL 18 2015 UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER OUR AREA WITH AFTERNOON DIURNAL CONVECTION TODAY MAINLY ALONG THE PLATEAU.
ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AXIS AND WHERE THIS TROUGH INTERSECTS THE COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTHEAST KANSAS. FAIRLY STRONG INSTABILITY IS PROGGED ALONG THE PRE- FRONTAL TROUGH IN OUR AREA. ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS MAY EVOLVE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. THE POSITIVELY-TILTED TROUGH AXIS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN STATES.
902 PM CDT SAT JUL 18 2015 ONLY AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POSSIBILITY WITH THE COLD FRONT. ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES TROUGH TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS SUNDAY. WINDS WILL BE A LITTLE GUSTY AS WINDS REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT BOUNDARY. THE COLD FRONT COULD SPARK A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO AS IT SWINGS THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT. DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY MOVING THROUGH.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER NORTHEAST TEXAS AND THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IS PROVIDING SUBSIDENCE ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. 8 INCHES THIS MORNING MAINLY CONCENTRATED IN THE LOWER LEVELS WHILE ALOFT MUCH MORE DRY AIR IS SHOWN THROUGH THE COLUMN. INTO SUN THE CONDITIONS PERSIST WITH LOW CHANCE OF RAIN AND HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE.
APPEARS AREA FROM OSCEOLA TO BREVARD COUNTIES MAY BE FAVORED WITH THE HIGHEST AFTN COVERAGE.
A HIGH PRESSURE CENTER OVER NORTHERN WYOMING WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD SOUTH THIS EVENING. IT WILL BE SOMEWHAT COOLER ON SUNDAY. GFS WAS ANOTHER 5 TO 8 DEGREES WARMER.
EXPECT A MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN NORTH AND WEST OF THE FA OVERNIGHT WHERE SLIGHTLY COOLER LOWER AND MID LEVEL TEMPS ARE.
WE LIKELY WILL SEE A FEW TSRA GIVEN OUR HIGH INSTABILITY VALUES, MOST LIKELY IN OUR CENTRAL AND EASTERN COUNTIES, PARTLY AIDED BY THE HIGHER TERRAIN. A BASICALLY PERSISTENCE FORECAST APPEARS BEST OVER THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS BEFORE AN UPPER TROF DIGS A BIT OVER THE GREAT LAKES SOUTHWARD INTO THE TN VALLEY.
WELL DEFINED MID LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED FROM EASTERN TEXAS TO ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY THIS EVENING. OVERNIGHT LOWS ON THE MUGGY SIDE WITH NUMBERS RANGING FROM 74 TO 77 OVER THE INTERIOR TO THE LOWER 80S CLOSER TO THE BEACHES.
SOME OF THE HIGHEST HEAT INDEX VALUES OBSERVED THIS AFTERNOON WERE 109 AT ELLINGTON FIELD AND 108 AT HOUSTON HOBBY. EVENING UPPER AIR OBSERVATIONS SHOWED THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER EAST TEXAS AND WESTERN LOUISIANA /500 MB HEIGHTS INCREASING FROM 593 DECAMETERS LAST NIGHT TO 595 DECAMETERS TONIGHT AT LAKE CHARLES AND SHREVEPORT/. AND THIS RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE HEAT A CONCERN FOR THE REGION HEADING INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY STILL SHOWS ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE RIDGE WHICH IS STILL PARKED OVER TEXAS. MODEL GUIDANCE DOES NOT SHOW MUCH OPPORTUNITY FOR ANY RAINFALL GIVEN THE RIDGE.
IA CONTINUES TO BE INFLUENCED BY MODERATE WESTERLIES UNDER MANITOBA SHORT WAVE TROUGH. ONE ALONG TRUE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH SIOUXLAND AREA AND SECOND WITH TROUGH SW-NE THROUGH THE HEART OF IA. SO ANYTHING THE DOES GO COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE HIGHEST THREATS WITH WEAK LOW LEVEL KINEMATICS.
WARMER SUNDAY WITH A WEST- SOUTHWEST WIND AT 15 TO 30 KTS. THE MAIN UPPER LOW WILL MOVE FROM SOUTHERN MANITOBA INTO ONTARIO TONIGHT. WESTERLY WINDS SHOULD BRING SOME WARMER 850MB AIR BACK INTO THE REGION AND WITH SUNSHINE AND GOOD MIXING WE SHOULD AGAIN GET CLOSE TO 80 DEGREES TOMORROW. THERE WILL BE A FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH.
916 PM EDT SAT JUL 18 2015 A SURFACE PRESSURE TROUGH WILL BE IN THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. A LEE- SIDE TROUGH IN THE FORECAST AREA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. STRONG HEATING WITH CONVERGENCE INTO THIS FEATURE MAY SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS BUT UPPER RIDGING EXTENDING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST SHOULD LIMIT COVERAGE.
853 PM EDT SAT JUL 18 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE NORTHEAST CONUS THIS WEEKEND.
726 PM EDT SAT JUL 18 2015 A SURFACE PRESSURE TROUGH WILL BE IN THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. A LEE- SIDE TROUGH IN THE FORECAST AREA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. STRONG HEATING WITH CONVERGENCE INTO THIS FEATURE MAY SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS BUT UPPER RIDGING EXTENDING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST SHOULD LIMIT COVERAGE.
THE HIGHEST CAPE VALUES OVER 3000 J/KG WERE IN BARBER COUNTY WHERE DEWPOINTS WERE HOLDING IN THE UPPER 60S. IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT, LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING BY SUNDAY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE STALLED OUT FRONT, ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN SOUTHEAST WYOMING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WYOMING BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND THEN SHOULD SPREAD INTO THE PLAINS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
DEW POINTS WERE FALLING INTO THE LOWER 50S WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY AND THIS SURGE OF DRIER AIR SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE CWA BY SUNSET. WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT ON SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA.