Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Skies are mostly sunny across central Kentucky and southern Indiana this afternoon as upper level ridging builds through the region. A deep upper low has moved over West Texas, and an MCS is pushing from eastern TX into Louisiana and Arkansas. Overall, there may be just enough juice for scattered storms tomorrow evening as the cold front approaches. Mid-level lapse rates will steepen by the evening as the upper low nears the area.
After the rain ends, the concern will be low clouds and fog due to the low level moisture in the region. Isentropic upglide over a weak warm front will continue to support rain showers across central Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin. The southern stream trough will continue to deepen overnight and lift northeastward into the middle Mississippi River Valley by late Monday afternoon.
/Issued 510 PM CDT Sun Apr 2 2017/ Upper closed low moving eastward over the Red River Valley with widespread severe storms over far eastern TX into LA/AR. Monday looks to be fairly nice with a weak ridge trying to build in ahead of the next system. The next disturbance comes in the form of a fairly well amplified trough digging south of the four corners region by late Monday. Models are trending much faster with the progression of the low but the overall track has been fairly consistent from run to run with some slight variations between models.
1118 PM EDT Sun Apr 2 2017 High pressure will be slow to move out of the region, yielding dry conditions into the early half of Monday. A series of crossing low pressure areas will thereafter keep periodic rain chances in the forecast for the upcoming work week. CL Temperatures near 10 degrees above normal are expected Monday as this continues as WAA continues with rain chances increasing mid-afternoon through the night as low pressure tracks towards the Great Lakes.
731 PM EDT Sun Apr 2 2017 High pressure will be slow to move out of the region, yielding dry conditions into the early half of Monday. A series of crossing low pressure areas will thereafter keep periodic rain chances in the forecast for the upcoming work week. High pressure centered over the area will slide eastward this evening. This will mean return flow around the back side of the high and ahead of the next system to affect the area should keep temperatures above the levels we dropped to last night. Fries Temperatures near 10 degrees above normal are expected Monday as this continues as WAA continues with rain chances increasing mid-afternoon through the night as low pressure tracks towards the Great Lakes.
Further moistening is expected by later tonight as a warm front lifts north across the area. Min temps much warmer than previous nights with lows only falling into the 60s most areas. Patchy low clouds fcst to develop later tonight as a warm front lifts north across the area. Pressure gradient will increase on Monday in the wake of a warm front.
700 PM CDT Sun Apr 2 2017 A mid/upper trough over the Southern Plains will lift north and east across the area tonight before exiting across the Middle Mississippi Valley area on Monday. Precipitation will end from west to east on Mon with increasing large-scale forcing for subsidence in the wake of the mid/upper trough. After a brief lull, another vigorous mid/upper trough will dig over the Great Basin area on Monday before emerging across the Central Plains late Tue. We may also see some areas of frost develop late Wed into early Thu as high pressure settles over the area in the wake of the storm system. After a cool start on Thu morning, dry weather conditions and moderating temperatures are anticipated through the weekend as a mid/upper ridge builds over the central Conus.
Similiar readings along Sabine Lake at Rainbow Bridge and Port Arthur holding at 3 feet MLLW. " Rain chances will end west to east as the night progresses with increasingly vertically stacked low pressure tracking northeast across north Texas into Oklahoma advancing a cold front across the area.
A pair of short wave troughs working through the interior NW will keep clouds and a slight chance of snow showers over the mountains north of a line from Baker City to Yellowpine tonight.
752 PM EDT Sun Apr 2 2017 Aviation A low pressure system over Texas this afternoon will move northeast and continue to strengthen and bring rain and potential for a few thunderstorms Monday afternoon through Monday night.
As upper low progresses to the northeast from West Texas and over Oklahoma this forecast cycle, widespread light to moderate rain showers will be seen near the center and on north/west periphery in deformation zone. /issued 210 PM CDT Sun Apr 2 2017/ The upper low continues to move slowly eastward across north Texas this afternoon. Most models indicated light amounts of rain later today over central Oklahoma while areas to the south and east will receive bit more when the low tracks into south central then eastern Oklahoma early Monday. Isolated thunder may occur near the center of the low through its track overnight. The low clouds and fog will increase again tonight and clearing is expected to start from western Oklahoma Monday morning.
925 PM MDT THU APR 28 2016 AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN AND RAIN/SNOW MIX HAVE BEEN GRADUALLY DISSIPATING ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING AS THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTER BRINGING IN THE MOISTURE HAS MOVED WEST TO THE IDAHO-MONTANA BORDER SOUTHWEST OF MISSOULA. LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE CENTER SOUTH OF KMSO CONTINUING TO DRIFT WESTWARD TOWARD IDAHO PANHANDLE. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW REMAINS WIDESPREAD OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MT, CREATING BROAD AREAS OF LOWER VFR/MVFR CEILINGS WITH SCATTERED -SHRA VCNTY KLWT/KGTF/KCTB. AS THE LOW MOVES FURTHER WEST, THE EASTERLY MOISTURE FEED WILL BE REDUCED, SO AREAS OF PRECIPITATION WILL DECREASE AND THERE MAY BE BRIEF IMPROVEMENT IN CEILINGS EARLY THIS EVENING.
1011 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016 THE EVENING SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS A WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM JUST S OF ACT. STEEPENING LAPSE RATES NOTED ON THE 00Z KFWD/KSHV RAOBS/LOW WBZ HEIGHTS THIS EVENING IN CONJUNCTION TO THE INCREASING DEEP LYR FORCING ALONG/N OF THE WARM FRONT WILL RESULT IN SCT ELEVATED CONVECTION QUICKLY INCREASING LATE TONIGHT OVER NE TX/SW AR/SE OK.
1148 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016 After a temporary break in the active weather an increasing chance for showers and thunderstorms will return Friday as a broad upper level trough comes across the southern Rockies. The associated warm front will be lifting north toward the area as surface cyclogenesis takes place across the Plains. The progression of this warm front and evolution will have to be monitored as it will impact the potential for stronger storms.
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE AREA ALONG WITH A RATHER DRY AIR MASS WILL KEEP QUITE WEATHER ACROSS THE MID STATE TONIGHT AND MUCH OF FRIDAY.
SURFACE DEWPOINTS BUT WILL SURGE DURING THE LATE OVERNIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WARM FRONT. /ISSUED 340 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016/ A STALLED FRONT STRETCHES ACROSS NORTHERN LOUISIANA AND CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI THIS AFTERNOON WHILE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE HAS BUILT INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO THE MID 80S. THE STALLED FRONT WILL BEGIN MOVING NORTH AS A WARM FRONT.
/ISSUED 242 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016/ Low level moisture starting to lift back north out of southeast Texas this afternoon ahead of upper low currently moving through the desert southwest. Low level jet will begin to increase across north Texas and southeast Oklahoma tonight as upper low moves into the four corners region by 12z Friday. Overall tornado threat will likely depend on how far north warm front lifts into southeast Oklahoma Friday afternoon. If the morning convection is too widespread or lingers into the afternoon hours, the warm front would likely remain further south near the red river. In addition, any residual boundaries would support an enhanced tornado threat, especially given the low LCL heights expected. Regardless, a severe/heavy rainfall threat will continue Friday evening into the overnight hours as the main upper low lifts into the central plains.
/ISSUED 340 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016/ A STALLED FRONT STRETCHES ACROSS NORTHERN LOUISIANA AND CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI THIS AFTERNOON WHILE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE HAS BUILT INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO THE MID 80S. THE STALLED FRONT WILL BEGIN MOVING NORTH AS A WARM FRONT.
TEMPS AS OF 01Z HAVE FALLEN FAIRLY QUICKLY FROM THE MID 80S NOW DOWN TO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. THE COLD FRONT THAT HAS BEEN MOVING THROUGH THE AREA TODAY IS VERY WEAKLY DEFINED.
731 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION. BROAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TONIGHT. THEN BEGIN WEAKENING AND MIGRATING E AS A TROUGH/LOW COMPLEX DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL U. AN ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT IS SHOWN ON LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS MOVING INTO THE SE STATES AND THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FL PENINSULA ON FRIDAY. MODELS SHOW STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE FROPA DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND, WHILE ANOTHER TROUGH/LOW COMPLEX DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. THE TROUGH/LOW COMPLEX OVER THE CENTRAL U.
611 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016 After a temporary break in the active weather an increasing chance for showers and thunderstorms will return Friday as a broad upper level trough comes across the southern Rockies. The associated warm front will be lifting north toward the area as surface cyclogenesis takes place across the Plains. The progression of this warm front and evolution will have to be monitored as it will impact the potential for stronger storms.
630 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016 WATER VAPOR/RAP 500MB ANALYSIS SHOWS A CLOSED LOW PINWHEELING ALONG THE NORTHWEST IA/SOUTHWEST MN BORDER. THE CLOSED LOW GETS KICKED EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WHILE FILLING. DRYING NORTHEAST FLOW OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE LOW WILL WORK ON LOW CLOUD COVER. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY FOR DRIER CONDITIONS.
614 PM MDT THU APR 28 2016 WELL-ORGANIZED CLOSED LOW HAS BEEN PUMPING MOISTURE UP INTO EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO TODAY. THE CLOSED LOW WILL SHIFT EAST OVER THE FOUR CORNERS BY FRIDAY MORNING BUT A GENERAL AREA OF CONVERGENCE WILL REMAIN SLUNG ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST FRIDAY ALLOWING FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION ONCE AGAIN. CONDITIONS WILL DRY OUT AT MOST LOCATIONS BY FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE CLOSED LOW MOVES OUT OF WESTERN COLORADO. THE NEXT CLOSED LOW IS PROGGED TO DROP FURTHER SOUTH THAN WE WERE SEEING ON FORECAST MODELS 24 HOURS AGO.
1144 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016 WATER VAPOR/RAP 500MB ANALYSIS SHOWS A CLOSED LOW PINWHEELING ALONG THE NORTHWEST IA/SOUTHWEST MN BORDER. THE CLOSED LOW GETS KICKED EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WHILE FILLING. DRYING NORTHEAST FLOW OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE LOW WILL WORK ON LOW CLOUD COVER. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY FOR DRIER CONDITIONS.
THERE ARE A FEW SHALLOW LAYERS OF CONVECTIVE RESISTANCE IN THE LOW LAYERS.
LLVL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND LIFT OFF UPPER LOW ACRS THE IA/MN BORDER PRODUCING AREAS OF MAINLY LIGHT SHOWERS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON. PASSING UPPER LOW SHOULD CONTINUE TO ALLOW SHOWERS/ SPRINKLES AND AREAS OF DRIZZLE OUT OF LOWER CLOUD DECKS. BOTH SFC AND UPPER RIDGE LOBE GETTING SQUEEZED ACRS THE MID TO UPPER MS RVR VALLEY. THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY JUST WEST OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION IS EXPECTED TO LIFT E-NE. SENDING A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE SYNOPTIC FRONT SITUATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MID MS VALLEY.
616 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016 12Z UPPER-AIR ANALYSIS AND CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATE AN MID-LEVEL LOW ALONG THE MN-IA BORDER AND AN UPSTREAM CYCLONE OVER THE LOWER CO VALLEY. MID-LEVEL RIDGING BETWEEN THESE FEATURES WILL BUILD THROUGH THE N-CNTRL U. THE UPPER LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS WILL EJECT NEWD INTO THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO THE PROGRESSION OF MID AND UPPER-LEVEL WIND MAXIMA FROM THE SRN ROCKIES INTO ERN NE/KS AND WRN MO.
FOR ANY LINGERING ISO SHWRS/TSTMS AHEAD OF A VERY WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHING NOW THRU THE ERN HALF OF THE MID STATE. BUILDING RIDGING INFLUENCES. LOWS TONIGHT RANGING IN THE LOW TO MID 50S. QUANDARIES ABOUND ON ACTUAL RAINFALL COVERAGE ASSOCIATED WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF SHWRS/TSTMS AS A WARM FRONT AND THEN PUSHES NWD AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. ALONG WITH SUBTLE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING. HIGH PRESSURE INFLUENCES SFC/ALOFT WILL FINALLY BUILD INTO THE MID STATE REGION BY THE MID PORTION OF NEXT WORK WEEK.
1043 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016 WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN TO THE WEST THROUGH FRIDAY. WHILE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. AND WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE PASS EAST OFF THE SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST.
/issued 215 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016/ WV imagery shows an upper trough digging over the Four Corners region this afternoon. Moisture has begun to surge back west across the area in response to height falls associated with the upper trough. The best chance for storms comes later tonight as the dryline retreats west and large scale lift arrives with the upper trough.
SCATTERED CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING ALONG A NORTHWARD MOVING WARM FRONT JUST NORTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR. LOW STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG MAY BRING MVFR/IFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE WARM FRONT. AS SW FLOW ALOFT OVERTAKES THE REGION AHEAD OF A STRONG UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER NRN AZ. WARM FRONT CURRENTLY JUST TO THE S OF OUR REGION WILL CONTINUE PUSHING NWD TONIGHT AND BEGIN INTERACTING WITH PERTURBATIONS IN THE SW FLOW. THE WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SET UP SOMEWHERE IN THE I-30 CORRIDOR. AS THE UPPER LOW PUSHES INTO THE PLAINS FRIDAY AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACHES.
IR IMAGERY DEPICTS COOLING CLOUD-TOPS OVR THE PAST FEW HOURS ACROSS COLORADO AS THE NOSE OF THE JET BEGINS TO EMERGE FROM THE BASE OF THE FOUR CORNERS CLOSED LOW. SNOWFALL WILL HAVE TO BATTLE MELTING RESULTING FROM THE STEEP SPRING SUN ANGLE AND TEMPERATURES THAT WILL HOVER AROUND FREEZING ACROSS MANY LOCATIONS IN THE PLAINS. WILL KEEP THE HIGHLIGHT PACKAGE AS IS FOR THIS EVENING UPDATE. UPPER LOW MOVES SLOWLY INTO SOUTHWEST COLORADO BY MORNING WITH WIDESPREAD SNOW DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO AND EXTENDING INTO SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AS THE 500- 300 MB AND 700-500 MB QG FORCING OVERSPREADS THE AREA. THE UPPER LOW PROGGED TO MOVE SLOWLY INTO EAST CENTRAL COLORADO WITH WIDESPREAD SNOW CONTINUING ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES AND SPREADING INTO THE SOUTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE.
847 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016 A COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED TO THE SOUTH THROUGH FRIDAY. WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL RIDE ALONG THE BOUNDARY DURING THIS TIME.
753 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016 SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO THIS EVENING AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR FRIDAY.
904 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016 LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN CLOUDY SKIES WITH SHOWER CHANCES THROUGH FRIDAY.
The low cloud field will persist overnight, with ceilings mostly in the 1000-1500 ft range at the TAF sites. /issued 231 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016/ (Tonight and Tomorrow) Synoptically, an upper level low is centered over the four corners area this afternoon with a Pacific front bisecting New Mexico as it moves to the east.
12Z UPPER-AIR ANALYSIS AND CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATE AN MID-LEVEL LOW ALONG THE MN-IA BORDER AND AN UPSTREAM CYCLONE OVER THE LOWER CO VALLEY. MID-LEVEL RIDGING BETWEEN THESE FEATURES WILL BUILD THROUGH THE N-CNTRL U. THE UPPER LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS WILL EJECT NEWD INTO THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO THE PROGRESSION OF MID AND UPPER-LEVEL WIND MAXIMA FROM THE SRN ROCKIES INTO ERN NE/KS AND WRN MO.
THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS WILL INCREASE DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS AS THE MAIN MIDLEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN.
602 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016 FOR 00Z TAFS /ISSUED 222 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016/ THE 19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED THAT THE WEAK COLD FRONT HAD MOVED THROUGH MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND INTO NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI. TEMPS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WERE IN THE LOW-MID 80S ACROSS THE REGION. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. TEMPS WERE SLIGHTLY COOLER AND INTO THE UPPER 70S. THE MODELS INDICATE THAT THE COLD FRONT WILL SLIP SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR FILTERING INTO THE REGION. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS ALSO PROGGED BY THE MODELS TO SHIFT SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
Temps range from mid 50s from Macomb to Lacon north to the lower 70s in southeast IL from I-70 south. Another slow moving low pressure area will move out of the plains and toward the OH valley over the weekend. As the low pressure area moves along this boundary, south of the CWA, showers and thunderstorms will dominate for Sat, with chances continuing for Sat night and Sun. Pcpn will push east of the area on Sun night with the highest chances of pcpn lingering in the east. Beyond this system, an upper level cutoff low will sit over the southwest US while a trough-pattern setsup over eastern Canada and down into the Great Lakes region. Clouds and pcpn will keep temps slightly cooler/below normal over the weekend. Winds stay fairly light next 24 hours with weakening occluded front/trough near I-74.
805 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016 WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN TO THE WEST THROUGH FRIDAY. WHILE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. AND WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE PASS EAST OFF THE SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST.
843 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016 A QUIET EVENING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK INTO THE AREA. CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 57 87 61 83 / 10 10 20 50 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 56 82 58 80 / 10 10 20 50 OAK RIDGE, TN 55 83 60 79 / 10 10 20 50 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 54 79 52 79 / 10 10 10 50.
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL TRACK EASTWARD, EXITING NORTHERN ARIZONA FRIDAY MORNING. AS A RESULT OF THE LOW TRACK AND DECREASING INSTABILITY, SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE OVERNIGHT, WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS TRANSITIONING TO NORTHEASTERN ARIZONA AFTER MIDNIGHT. SNOW LEVELS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE DURING THE DAY, WITH LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED ONLY OVER THE HIGHEST MOUNTAIN PEAKS.
1008 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016 EVENING SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS A WEAKENING COLD FRONT OVER THE TENNESSEE AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEYS. RIDGING IS BUILDING OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. WHERE HIGHS WILL REACH THE LOWER 90S. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL STALL TO THE NORTH OF THE GEORGIA WATERS ON FRIDAY. AND WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF OUR REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS ATLANTIC RIDGING EXTENDS WESTWARD ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA.
727 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016 UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A CLOSED 500 MB LOW OVER NORTHERN IOWA EMBEDDED IN A TROUGH ACROSS THE CORN BELT. THE CLOSED LOW HEADS INTO SOUTHERN MN BY THIS EVENING AND THEN MOVES INTO LOWER MI BY FRI MORNING AND INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES BY FRI AFTERNOON.
1044 PM MDT THU APR 28 2016 WELL-ORGANIZED CLOSED LOW HAS BEEN PUMPING MOISTURE UP INTO EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO TODAY. THE CLOSED LOW WILL SHIFT EAST OVER THE FOUR CORNERS BY FRIDAY MORNING BUT A GENERAL AREA OF CONVERGENCE WILL REMAIN SLUNG ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST FRIDAY ALLOWING FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION ONCE AGAIN. CONDITIONS WILL DRY OUT AT MOST LOCATIONS BY FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE CLOSED LOW MOVES OUT OF WESTERN COLORADO. THE NEXT CLOSED LOW IS PROGGED TO DROP FURTHER SOUTH THAN WE WERE SEEING ON FORECAST MODELS 24 HOURS AGO.
700 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016 A STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION OVERNIGHT. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL EJECT OUT ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. TO THE NORTH OF A WARM FRONT WHICH MAY LIFT AS FAR NORTH AS I-40 OR SLIGHT FURTHER NORTH IN OKLAHOMA. THE HIGH STORM CHANCES WILL BE IN RESPONSE TO INCREASED 850 MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE JUST AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH. THE STRONG MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND SHEAR EASTWARD THIS WEEKEND. ISOLATED THUNDER FOR MAINLY WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE UNDERNEATH THE UPPER TROUGH/MID-LEVEL COLD POCKET.
955 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016 SKIES WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY TONIGHT BEHIND A DEPARTING SHORT WAVE TROUGH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR FRIDAY.
1149 PM EDT MON JUN 13 2016 High pressure will remain anchored across the eastern Great Lakes through the TAF period. The position of this high will sustain an easterly component to the wind field. A warm front will approach the state from the southwest on Tuesday, leading to a slight tightening of the gradient and thus slightly stronger easterly winds in comparison to today. The high parked to the east of the region will also sustain ample low level dry air which in turn will keep ceilings VFR through Tues evening. Southeast Michigan remains on downstream edge of large upper ridge over the Midwest. The forecast area will remain pretty much under the same scenario through Tuesday night as the ridge remains nearly stationary.
The main forecast challenge for the overnight period focuses on the MCS out on the High Plains. Still, temps in the low-mid 90s with dew points in the low-mid 70s yield dangerous heat index values, especially by Wed-Fri when heat advisory will likely be needed for some areas.
Winds in the lower half of the atmosphere are from the west and then primarily from the northwest in the upper levels.
927 PM EDT MON JUN 13 2016 KBYX detects isolated showers over nearshore waters adjacent to the Lower and Middle Keys. Temperatures are in the lower to mid 80s. In the low levels of the atmosphere, the western extent of an Atlantic ridge of high pressure will be located near the Bahamas overnight. In the mid levels of the atmosphere, an area of high pressure will be centered over the western Gulf of Mexico tonight. In the upper levels of the atmosphere, a trough of low pressure will be located near the southeastern Bahamas overnight.
704 PM EDT MON JUN 13 2016 High pressure will remain anchored across the eastern Great Lakes through the TAF period. The position of this high will sustain an easterly component to the wind field. A warm front will approach the state from the southwest on Tuesday, leading to a slight tightening of the gradient and thus slightly stronger easterly winds in comparison to today. The high parked to the east of the region will also sustain ample low level dry air which in turn will keep ceilings VFR through the TAF period. Southeast Michigan remains on downstream edge of large upper ridge over the Midwest. The forecast area will remain pretty much under the same scenario through Tuesday night as the ridge remains nearly stationary.
1043 PM EDT MON JUN 13 2016 Our region will remain in northwest flow for most of the forecast period as a large ridge builds over the southwestern United States and central North America. Another nice day though a bit warmer Tuesday.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 71 92 73 91 / 30 40 40 60 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 68 91 70 89 / 20 40 40 60 Oak Ridge, TN 68 91 71 89 / 20 40 40 60 Tri Cities Airport, TN 56 89 67 86 / 10 30 40 60.
907 PM EDT MON JUN 13 2016 High pressure will remain over the region through Tuesday.
743 PM EDT MON JUN 13 2016 High pressure will remain over the region through Tuesday.
804 PM EDT MON JUN 13 2016 Our region will remain in northwest flow for most of the forecast period as a large ridge builds over the southwestern United States and central North America. Another nice day though a bit warmer Tuesday.
1159 PM CDT MON JUN 13 2016 Thunderstorm complex currently over southwest KS and OK Panhandle should continue to maintain its strength over the next few hours given the favorable thermodynamic/kinematic environment over the High Plains. Beyond midnight, thunderstorm forecast confidence is low, with modest to low chances maintained generally anywhere along and west of the Flint Hills within zone of weak to modest moisture transport/warm advection, underneath broad large scale ascent ahead of approaching upper trough. Am not inclined to believe most models showing due east movement given what happened this morning, upper flow and thermal gradient, although slightly warmer mid level temperatures may limit southern extent.