Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1153 PM CDT Tue Jun 1 2021 Low pressure passing by to the south of Illinois, will keep rain chances in the forecast for areas south of I-72 tonight through Thursday. Temperatures will remain below normal through Thursday, before much warmer conditions arrive this weekend. The latest surface plot shows high pressure centered in the central Great Lakes and extending back into northern IL, while low pressure in eastern Oklahoma was poised to start some eastward movement. Aloft, a 500 mb trough was digging into the southern Plains, while a strong ridge was building across the western CONUS.
238 AM MDT Wed Jun 2 2021 At the start of the short term period, the CWA is underneath the base of an upper air trough with an eastward moving upper air ridge over the western CONUS.
A much cooler and breezier weather pattern is expected for the end of the week into the weekend. Tonight through Thursday: The strong ridge has made its way inland and is now centered over central Washington. Current 850 mb temperatures around 20-22C have allowed surface temperatures across the region to warm into the mid 80s to the low 90s this afternoon. As the ridge continues to push inland, 850mb temperatures will warm around to 23-25C Wednesday and Thursday which will support even further warming at the surface. As the ridge continues to shift eastward Thursday, a weak wave and associated cold front will follow behind it. Models currently have thunderstorms firing up over the higher terrain of central-eastern Oregon and pushing into southeastern WA and the southern Panhandle Thursday evening.
These are not expected to be widespread by any means, but 150+ low-level helicities (especially amongst the higher instability values) could cause any storms that develop to rotate.
Most of the afternoon convection will be tied to the higher terrain with storm motions expected to be more due southerly, which will keep thunderstorms across the mountains/valley area. The upper ridge of high pressure will persist across the western US for one more day, producing very warm conditions for the forecast area. Of course, given the time of year with plenty of daytime heating, in addition to favorable lapse rates and some available moisture, there will be scattered aftn and eve showers and thunderstorms over the higher terrain. Plan on highs in the 70s for the high valleys, and into the upper 70s to mid 80s for Thu.
LIFR to MVFR ceilings continue across the area this morning with the lowest conditions being observed across our far NW AR terminals. /Issued 402 AM CDT Wed Jun 2 2021/ A few showers, and possibly some thunderstorms this afternoon, will remain possible today as an upper trough moves across the area.
The upper level structure in the atmosphere has a trof and shrtwv energy rotating through thru the region this morning.
Still can't rule out isold to widely scattered showers or storms this aftn over the higher terrain due to favorable lapse rates. For tonight, any shower or storm activity over the higher terrain will end by early evening. Ridging will continue to build Thursday across the western U. , with northeast Colorado on the east side of the ridge axis. Surface dew points in the low 40s combined with highs in the low 80s will be enough for a little instability, especially over the mountains. Showers and storms that do form will likely remain over the higher terrain.
Air temps are falling with clearing skies with low to mid 60s for most across our West and a few upper 60s to around 70 on the other side of this cold front from Kisatchie to NE LA. So while not a significant front, it will provide our area and nice midweek with temps just slightly cooler.
1011 AM EDT Wed Jun 2 2021 High pressure over the Atlantic siphons deep tropical moisture into the Carolinas through the end of the work week, creating elevated rain chances and coverage. Latest sfc analysis shows high pressure centered off to the NE with a stalled frontal boundary just off the Carolina coast. High temps in the low/mid 80s. Offshore Atlantic high pressure and an upper trough over the Mississippi River Valley will work together to siphon warm, muggy air into the Carolinas.
/issued 324 AM CDT Wed Jun 2 2021/ The unseasonably cool, unsettled weather pattern will continue across the region today, with high temperatures this afternoon expected to be several degrees warmer than yesterday, but still below normal for this time of year.
Amplified ridge covering Nevada today and again on Thursday brings early season heat to the region. With the ridge axis slightly shifting eastward, better chance for a deeper mixing may spawn isolated storms over the central Nevada mountains late in the day (e.
402 AM CDT Wed Jun 2 2021 A few showers, and possibly some thunderstorms this afternoon, will remain possible today as an upper trough moves across the area.
Ridging over the area for warm, sunny weather today, with cooler temperatures along the coast.
With the upper low well to the south and high pressure to the northeast moisture has increased (PW 1. Warmer temperatures aloft (-6c at 500Mb) should keep thunderstorm intensity below severe limits, with locally heavy rains, occasional lightning, and some gusty winds the main hazards from the storms. High pressure extending across the area from the Atlantic will support tranquil boating conditions over the Gulf waters the remainder of today with east southeast winds around 10 knots with seas of 1 to 2 feet with an onshore sea breeze component developing along the coast during the afternoon.
Early this morning a low amplitude upper level trough axis extended from western IA, southwest across central KS, southward into north TX. Today the upper level trough axis will slowly shift east across the CWA into western MO.
Relief from the hot inland temperatures will begin today as high pressure moves eastward. The persistent high pressure ridge aloft will weaken and begin to shift east today while a trough approaches from the west. A weak cold front associated with the trough will pass through the area tonight enhancing coastal marine influence but only some patchy drizzle is expected if any precip at all tonight.
525 AM MDT Wed Jun 2 2021 The upper-level ridge over the western US strengthens and moves slightly eastward Wednesday. Given the upper flow, any shower or storm would move south off the higher terrain during the late afternoon and early evening.
Strong to severe thunderstorms remain possible Thursday afternoon and evening with the greatest risk focused in the Lower Susquehanna Valley. Anomalous moisture plume along western periphery of sub-tropical ridge surges northward across the Mid Atlantic region tonight within solid WAA regime.
Air temps are falling with clearing skies with low to mid 60s for most across our West and a few upper 60s to around 70 on the other side of this cold front from Kisathchis to NE LA. So while not a significant front, it will provide our area and nice midweek with temps just slightly cooler.
An upper level trough will extend from the Great Lakes southwest into north Texas. Tonight, a thermal ridge will develop across the Central and Northern High Plains. Expecting a fairly strong inversion in the low levels with lows from the low to mid 50s. Thursday, the upper ridge across the western U.
/issued 417 AM CDT Wed Jun 2 2021/ SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday): A positively tilted trough will swing towards the Mississippi River Valley through the short term while a cutoff low spins over Baja California. A series of upper level disturbances push out ahead of this low and move over Deep South Texas, bringing a slight chance to chance of showers and thunderstorms mostly for our western counties today and tomorrow.
423 AM PDT Wed Jun 2 2021 High pressure will move southward across the area continuing the warming trend today with the marine layer becoming shallower and coastal low clouds not spreading as far into the valleys.
609 AM EDT Wed Jun 2 2021 A low pressure system will impact the region today through Thursday evening as it tracks northeast across the Ohio Valley.
SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday): A positively tilted trough will swing towards the Mississippi River Valley through the short term while a cutoff low spins over Baja California. A series of upper level disturbances push out ahead of this low and move over Deep South Texas, bringing a slight chance to chance of showers and thunderstorms mostly for our western counties today and tomorrow.
617 AM EDT Wed Jun 2 2021 High pressure over the Atlantic siphons deep tropical moisture into the Carolinas through the end of the work week, creating elevated rain chances and coverage. Latest sfc analysis shows high pressure centered off to the NE with a stalled frontal boundary just off the Carolina coast. High temps in the low/mid 80s. Offshore Atlantic high pressure and an upper trough over the Mississippi River Valley will work together to siphon warm, muggy air into the Carolinas.
513 AM MDT Wed Jun 2 2021 At the start of the short term period, the CWA is underneath the base of an upper air trough with an eastward moving upper air ridge over the western CONUS.
536 AM CDT Wed Jun 2 2021 A positively tilted trough will slowly drift east across the area today, gradually turning low level winds to a more westerly direction.
540 AM MDT Wed Jun 2 2021 Northerly flow will remain over the forecast area through the rest of this week, as a ridge of high pressure remains established to our west over the Great Basin. Expect mostly gusty outflow winds from any convection as the low levels remain dry although there could be some isolated pockets of moderate precipitation among higher peaks along the divide. A much warmer air mass will also accompany this ridge despite the "dirty" nature of this ridge, with daytime highs warming in the upper 80s to low 90s for many lower valleys today with highs approaching low to mid 90s by Thursday for many of the desert valleys of southeast Utah and west-central Colorado.
334 AM MDT Wed Jun 2 2021 Northerly flow will remain over the forecast area through the rest of this week, as a ridge of high pressure remains established to our west over the Great Basin. Expect mostly gusty outflow winds from any convection as the low levels remain dry although there could be some isolated pockets of moderate precipitation among higher peaks along the divide. A much warmer air mass will also accompany this ridge despite the "dirty" nature of this ridge, with daytime highs warming in the upper 80s to low 90s for many lower valleys today with highs approaching low to mid 90s by Thursday for many of the desert valleys of southeast Utah and west-central Colorado.
CIMSS MIMIC Layer PWAT indicates that there is a large swath of higher moisture associated with the upper-level trough, which will likely enter our area sometime this evening or tomorrow. Temperatures are in the lower 80s and are expected to peak in the upper 80s this afternoon. From synopsis, High pressure centered east of the Mid Atlantic Coast will support moderate breezes through tonight. Breezes will turn southeast and decrease slightly starting tomorrow as high pressure recedes to the east across the western North Atlantic.
This general area (NE KY, SE OH, and far N/NW WV) will be the region with the highest likelihood for scattered showers today as the best forcing will be near and north of the Ohio River. Instability is on the low side, but isolated non-severe thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon/evening. Went under guidance slightly on today's high temperatures, with low to mid 70s for the lowlands, and upper 50s/60s for the higher elevations. Low temperatures Wednesday night will generally be in the low 60s for the lowlands, with mid to upper 50s for the higher terrain.
A few more hot days are in store for interior Northern California as upper level ridging continues over the area.
Recent satellite / radar imagery indicate convection has deepened across south central KS through western OK within the mid level trough axis. LIFR to MVFR ceilings continue across the area this morning with the lowest conditions being observed across our far NW AR terminals. /Issued 402 AM CDT Wed Jun 2 2021/ A few showers, and possibly some thunderstorms this afternoon, will remain possible today as an upper trough moves across the area.
Some cumulus has developed over the northern plains near the border as the higher clouds cleared, and this will likely continue as well. The upper level ridge will be in place across the western U. S with eastern Colorado on the east side of the ridge axis.
This evening through Thursday night A robust upper level ridge will be the main driver of weather over the next 36 hours.
317 PM EDT Wed Jun 2 2021 Latest surface analysis shows near stationary front draped over the the mid GA region with a mid level/upper level trough back to the west over the Ozarks. This trough expected to increase PoP chances moving into tonight as isentropic lift works in tandem with waves within the flow, primarily across N and NW GA. Current models have MU/SBCape values in the 1000-1500 j/kg range across most of the area, this in tandem with slightly lower bulk shear values 20-25kt could lead to isolated damage winds as the weak surface cold front pushes through the area. In the wake of the eastward moving upper trough.
As mentioned in the previous AFD, a trough of low pressure is currently in place aloft, which is currently bringing temperatures of around 9-10 C in the 925-850 hPa layer across the area. As this trough slowly slides east, warmer air and increasing subsidence hinted on forecast soundings will begin to move into the area. Afternoon highs should moderate into the low to mid 80s, with the higher end of the range expected around the Hwy 20 where the warmer temperatures aloft will be focused.
1215 PM EDT Wed Jun 2 2021 High pressure over the Atlantic siphons deep tropical moisture into the Carolinas through the end of the work week, creating elevated rain chances and coverage. Latest sfc analysis shows high pressure centered off to the NE with a stalled frontal boundary just off the Carolina coast. High temps in the low/mid 80s. Offshore Atlantic high pressure and an upper trough over the Mississippi River Valley will work together to siphon warm, muggy air into the Carolinas.
Originally was thinking some scattered precipitation tonight southeast of a line from LBF to ONL, but the forcing via the trough axis stretched across the Midwest looks too weak and short term models agree. Otherwise, as the troughing moves east tonight, upper level ridging begins to dominate flow over Nebraska. The high pressure's subsequent subsidence will allow for mostly clear skies throughout the short term, and light winds (under 10kts).
Patterson (Issued 350 AM CDT Wed Jun 2 2021) Today through Thursday: Precipitable water values will remain on the low side today, increasing a bit in the northwest this afternoon. Though a weak trough will be moving through, kept the forecast dry most places today due to the limited moisture. Onshore winds will keep it cooler near the lake today, with some uncertainty as to how far the lake breeze might make it inland Thursday.
A few outflow boundaries are racing off convection associated with a weakening upper level low, however, we have lost the large-scale ascent needed for widespread coverage in our area. Temperatures have risen into the mid to upper 80s and dewpoints are in the lower 70s.
241 PM EDT Wed Jun 2 2021 High pressure will remain offshore through the period. More unsettled weather is expected into the weekend as a weak trough remains over the Southeast US. Combo of warm front lifting N, sea breeze moving inland and deep moisture has led to numerous shra and a few tsra over region with best cvrg inland and N. Wet pattern persists through most of the period with high pressure pushing offshore and a trough approaching the region from the west.
Strong to severe thunderstorms remain possible Thursday afternoon and evening with the greatest risk focused in the Lower Susquehanna Valley. well north of warm front over the deep south. Anomalous moisture plume along western periphery of sub-tropical ridge surges northward across the Mid Atlantic region tonight within solid WAA regime.
The trough axis slides east somewhat on Thursday as a ridge temporarily builds into the West Coast as a cut off low remains over Baja California. Meanwhile, an upper high remains parked over the Western Atlantic through the near term. The local area remains sandwiched between the trough aloft to the northwest and high to the east, keeping southwesterly flow aloft. A front draped to the south-southwest from the low does not progress east much through tonight and begins to wash out somewhat on Thursday. The highest storm coverage is expected to remain centered over our southeast Mississippi counties with scattered storms expected further east across parts of southwest Alabama.
232 PM CDT Wed Jun 2 2021 An upper ridge continues to build into western North Dakota and conditions remain fairly dry.
SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday Night): Continued wet and slightly cooler temperatures are expected through the short term. A 500 mb cut off low over Baja California and a 500 mb trough over the Mississippi Valley will continue to push eastward through the period. Tonight temperatures will fall into the low to mid 70s across the CWA with increasing cloud cover. Thursday night, temperatures will be in the low to mid 70s once again.
Getting Warm this Weekend: Ensembles (GEFS, EPS and CMCE) favor ridging through the weekend.
238 PM MDT Wed Jun 2 2021 Current satellite imagery shows fair weather cumulus this afternoon across the region with peak heating as upper level ridge continues to build in place. H5 heights continue to rise as the ridge axis remains positioned farther west.
331 PM EDT Wed Jun 2 2021 A large area of high pressure will import copious moisture into the Carolinas over the next several days bringing some much needed rainfall. Deep moist southerly flow around strong offshore high pressure will keep the weather unsettled through Thursday night. As an upper trough approaches the area late Thursday, 0-6km shear strengthens around the I-95 corridor as the day progresses.
SR Chattanooga Airport, TN 65 83 64 85 64 / 60 70 40 20 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 65 79 62 82 61 / 50 60 50 20 10 Oak Ridge, TN 63 79 61 82 61 / 60 70 40 20 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 63 78 60 80 58 / 40 80 70 30 10.
Offshore overnight will be the highest potential, but with the ULL nearby even daytime activity will continue to develop. Upper level low weakens and moves out of the area as a ridge nudges westward with southeasterly winds increasing across the region.
1139 AM MDT Wed Jun 2 2021 Northerly flow will remain over the forecast area through the rest of this week, as a ridge of high pressure remains established to our west over the Great Basin. Expect mostly gusty outflow winds from any convection as the low levels remain dry although there could be some isolated pockets of moderate precipitation among higher peaks along the divide. A much warmer air mass will also accompany this ridge despite the "dirty" nature of this ridge, with daytime highs warming in the upper 80s to low 90s for many lower valleys today with highs approaching low to mid 90s by Thursday for many of the desert valleys of southeast Utah and west-central Colorado.
- Isolated showers today mainly southeast this afternoon PWAT values will be on the climb today from the south as the wave of low pressure in the Lower OH Valley lifts northeast. The NAM appears to be an outlier showing the low level jet aimed at our southern counties later today into tonight. For now we will maintain the higher POPs down towards Jackson for later today into tonight.
A weak trough moving through our northeast zones later today may help to kick up some diurnally driven cloud cover later this afternoon. High amplitude upper level ridge over the northern Rockies will leave the CWA under northwesterly flow aloft. With the wind shift, warmer low level temps, and more sunshine, highs today should reach the 80s for most locations.
1244 PM EDT Wed Jun 2 2021 High pressure over the Atlantic siphons deep tropical moisture into the Carolinas through the end of the work week, creating elevated rain chances and coverage. Latest sfc analysis shows high pressure centered off to the NE with a stalled frontal boundary just off the Carolina coast. High temps in the low/mid 80s. Offshore Atlantic high pressure and an upper trough over the Mississippi River Valley will work together to siphon warm, muggy air into the Carolinas.
835 AM PDT Wed Jun 2 2021 High pressure will move southward across the area continuing the warming trend today with the marine layer becoming shallower and coastal low clouds not spreading as far into the valleys.
245 PM MDT Wed Jun 2 2021 Afternoon satellite imagery reveals a scattered to broken deck of cumulus has developed across the higher terrain of eastern Utah and western Colorado. This is in response to a weak vort max spinning along the eastern periphery of a stout mid-level ridge located over the Great Basin. Looking at BUFKIT forecast soundings, the low levels still appear fairly dry and deep inverted V signatures are quite prevalent. Outside of the high elevations in southwest Colorado, not anticipating much in the way of QPF. In the end, the impacts will be minimal as most QPF will be confined to the higher elevations of the San Juans with very little reaching the ground in the lower valleys.
There will likely still be enough moisture present for tomorrow to be a warmer version of today with daytime diurnally based cumulus and associated shower chances. The period begins with the western thermal ridge continuing to build eastward.
Latest upper level analysis revealed a trough over the eastern Great Plains (trough axis extends from OK to MN) with an upper ridge slowing shifting east across the far western CONUS. Other storms that form in NM may try to clip our southwest zones this evening (mainly after 5 PM), but latest guidance suggest these storms may struggle as the low level moisture is slow to mix back to the west. For tomorrow, the overall upper pattern shifts east with a piece of energy breaking off the southern part of the trough axis over TX. Overall, lift will be in short supply (which is usually the case being north of an upper level closed low).
Behind the weak cold front overnight, surface dewpoints have been brought down a few degrees, but as have the winds. In fact, this front has done a good job of decoupling winds, which is the opposite effect we'd expect a cold front to have. By tomorrow night however, lows will bump right back up to the low and upper 60s. Highs tomorrow will also be on the muggy side, with highs ranging from the low to mid 80s area-wide.
High pressure NE of the region will promote SE onshore flow, already raising PWAT levels from the morning Jax sounding to 1. Lows tonight will be warmest at the coast in the low 70s and the upper 60s inland.
It's possible that additional showers develop this evening and overnight, especially over south central Missouri where subtle upper level lift occurs in advance of an approaching trough of low pressure.
(This evening through Thursday) Widely scattered showers and a few thunderstorms continue to develop across much of the area as a remnant MCV at the base of the upper trough continues to rotate across central OK. Thursday will likely offer a rare break from our wet pattern as the upper trough moves slowly east of our area. High will still be on the cool side for this time of year (but warmer than they have been), reaching into the low 80s for much of the area.
Valley highs will range from the low 90s around the Delta to as hot as 105 in the northern Sacramento Valley. Over the next 24 to 48 hours, the upper level ridge that has produced this early-season heatwave will slowly shift inland with 500 mb heights gradually decreasing across northern California.