Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
608 AM CST Wed Jan 25 2017 WV imagery this morning strong upper low situated over cntrl neb with a sfc reflection centered over nrn MO.
948 AM CST Wed Jan 25 2017 A cold front as of 25/15Z was just entering the northwest corner of the forecast area and located from KRSN to in between KLFK- KJAS to in between KCXO-KIAH. /issued 445 AM CST Wed Jan 25 2017/ Temperatures are ranging from the teens over the upper plain states to the lower 70s along the central Texas coast. Southerly winds has raised our dew points allowing the temperatures to hold in the lower 60s. This cold front is expected to bring a brief chance for some showers ahead of the front. High pressure anchored over the central Rockies will ridge down into the region.
MVFR cigs and scattered light showers will spread from west to east through the day with approach of a cold front.
408 AM CST Wed Jan 25 2017 (Today and Tonight) Cool, dry air will move in behind a cold front this morning. Went a couple degrees cooler. toward cooler GFS MOS and NAM MOS temperatures versus the AllBlend.
Pre-frontal trough is moving southward through the region, as evidenced by the gravity waves shown on our radar/KCRP/ around the Beeville area and 1-hour pressure rises of a little over 2mb. The primary cold front is slowly sinking southward through San Antonio at this time where lower dewpoints are advecting southward. Winds have shifted towards the north-northwest behind the trough but the drier air is still tucked up farther north and will not filter through the region until the frontal passage clears us/a few more hours at least, shortly after sunrise it looks. Slightly cooler across the northeast where the 'best' cold air advection occurs. Better low-level cold air advection occurs Thursday with a backdoor front as high pressure moves into the region from the west.
With it so localized, as soon as the sun gets high enough to start stirring the lower atmosphere, the fog should dissipate quickly. This evening showers will be moving into the area from the west with a cold front.
142 AM EDT MON APR 18 2016 HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY.
324 AM PDT MON APR 18 2016 High pressure aloft and weak offshore winds will continue to the warm and dry weather today.
325 AM CDT MON APR 18 2016 Expansive closed upper low over the Rockies will send numerous rounds of rain and a few storms into our area over the next several days as the system slowly spins eastward into the Plains. Most rain chances will be tied to ill-defined weak vorticity maxima rotating around the low, which will be difficult to pinpoint more than a day out or so.
THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS HAS CUT OFF LOW OVER COLORADO WITH HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST. LOW PRESSURE TROF/BOUNDARY RESIDES ACROSS WESTERN MINNESOTA INTO CENTRAL KANSAS WITH HIGH PRESSURE NOSING INTO CENTRAL MONTANA. THIS IS TO BE EXPECTED FOR THE MOST PART WITH UPPER LOW CUTOFF FROM MAIN FLOW AND ITS UNCERTAIN MOVEMENT. CONFIDENCE IN SPECIFICS OF FORECAST IS RELATIVELY LOW FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS UNTIL THE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS FINALLY BREAKS DOWN AND ALLOWS THE LOW TO PROGRESS SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS AND OUT OF THE REGION MIDWEEK. WITH SOME BETTER ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA BY MID DAY MONDAY.
BLOCKING PATTERN CONTINUES AND AS IT BREAKS DOWN NOTHING MOVES VERY FAST. LARGE AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE MID-SOUTH WITH A CLOSED LOW TO THE EAST OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND A CLOSED LOW TO THE WEST OVER THE ROCKIES. BY TOMORROW THE UPPER LOW OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN BEGINS TO MOVE EAST WHICH IN TURN WILL WEAKEN THE AMPLITUDE OF THE RIDGE QUICKLY AND ALLOW THE WESTERN LOW TO MOVE EAST. THE WESTERN UPPER LOW WILL ALSO WEAKEN IN AMPLITUDE AND BY MID-WEEK WILL BE AN UPPER TROUGH. THE MOVEMENT OF THIS LOW AND TROUGH TO THE EAST WILL BE VERY SLOW.
352 AM EDT MON APR 18 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN SUNNY AND WARM CONDITIONS FOR ONE MORE DAY. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN PUSH INTO THE AREA AND BRING INCREASING CLOUDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY.
330 AM PDT MON APR 18 2016 High pressure will remain in control through the early part of the week with warm and dry weather continuing. Temperatures will begin to cool by mid-week with cooler and more unsettled weather by the end of the week. Amplified upper ridge remains in place along the West Coast with only some thin high clouds moving up from the southwest. Strong high pressure will continue record to near record warmth across the region today.
AND TUESDAY ANOTHER DAY OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TODAY AS THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE WILL BE DELAYED UNTIL AFTERNOON OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING OVER THE REST OF THE INLAND LOCATIONS. PROGS SUGGEST THIS BOUNDARY STALLS AND WEAKENS LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A NEARLY STACKING UPPER LOW SYSTEM APPROACHES WESTERN WISCONSIN. WILL LEAN TOWARD A DRIER FORECAST OVER NORTHEAST WISCONSIN DUE TO PROXIMITY TO A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING INTO AREAS JUST NORTH AND EAST.
THE STUBBORN OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN REMAINS WITH LARGE SCALE RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION. ANCHORED ON BOTH SIDES BY LARGE CLOSED LOWS SPINNING OVER THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST AND OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. ENERGY ROUNDING THE LOW/TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES CONTINUES TO SUPPORTS ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE WEATHER IS MUCH QUIETER OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WHERE WE ARE PROTECTED UNDER THE EASTERN UPPER RIDGE. STACKED RIDGING WILL KEEP OUR FORECAST DRY AND SEASONABLE THROUGH THE EARLY PORTION OF THE WORK WEEK. RAIN CHANCES ARE NEAR ZERO AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE RISING TO AROUND 80 NORTH OF I-4 MONDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE LOWER 80S FURTHER SOUTH.
245 AM CDT MON APR 18 2016 WATER VAPOR SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS UPPER LOW OVER COLORADO WITH A COUPLE OF VORT MAX SPOKES AROUND IT.
THE UPPER LOW WAS LOCATED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN QUAD OF THE STATE EARLY THIS MORNING. THE UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO SIT IN PLACE TODAY. GFS AND EC MODELS AS WELL AS HI RES MODELS HAVE ALL COME IN LINE TO SHOW A LOBE OF ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW ROTATING ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTN AND EVE. THIS WILL SPARK NUMEROUS ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE 20S AND 30S FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE AS THE BROAD CUT OFF UPPER LOW OVER CO/WY SLOWLY MEANDERS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. LOBE OF ENERGY ROTATING AROUND SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LOW WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS TUESDAY MORNING.
302 AM EDT MON APR 18 2016 A QUIET AND DRY WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS PARKED OVER THE SOUTHEAST. THEN A SOUTHWEST WIND PRODUCING EVEN WARMER HIGHS INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S ON TUESDAY.
CLOSED LOWS OFF THE ATLANTIC AND PACIFIC COASTS WITH RIDGES OVER THE WESTERN AND EASTERN CONUS. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE 30S WITH RETURNING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION OVER SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA TUESDAY MORNING AS UPPER LOW CROSSES THE ROCKIES THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT HAS BEEN CENTERED INVOF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION.
CLOSED LOW NEARLY STATIONARY SITTING ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL KEEP A SLIGHT PRECIPITATION THREAT ALONG THE ID-WY BORDER. THE HIGHER RESOLUTION NAM INDICATES VERY LITTLE PRECIPITATION CROSSING INTO IDAHO FROM WYOMING. THE LOWER RESOLUTION GFS DOES TEND TO SPREAD THE PRECIPITATION FARTHER EACH DAY INTO THE FORECAST AREA. AS IS TYPICAL UNDER A RIDGE. DO NOT SEE HOW THE LOW HUMIDITY MODIFIES UNTIL THERE IS A SHIFT TO SOME SOUTHERLY AIRFLOW.
A lead impulse spiraling around a large upper level low pressure system over the Rocky Mountain Region is currently moving up from Oklahoma into southeast Kansas and western Missouri.
339 AM CDT MON APR 18 2016 313 AM CDT ONE FINAL DAY OF VERY WARM AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY BEFORE A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT MOVES DOWN LAKE MICHIGAN AND OVER NORTHERN ILLINOIS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AS THE LARGER SCALE BLOCKED WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN. WHILE TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL AGAIN REACH INTO THE LOW 80S INLAND. COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER NORTHERN ILLINOIS ON TUESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. IN ADDITION TO THE COOLER WEATHER. THE BLOCKING UPPER RIDGE. THE LARGE UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.
LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SPIN OFF TO OUR SOUTHWEST. OVERALL THREAT FOR FREEZING RAIN AND/OR SLEET THIS MORNING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST/SOUTH CENTRAL HAS DECREASED SIGNIFICANTLY SO WILL REMOVE FROM THE HWO. UPPER LEVEL LOW REMAINS QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. POTENT EMBEDDED S/WV ROUNDING THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN/CENTRAL KANSAS AS OF 09Z PIVOTS NORTH ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA TODAY THEN ROTATES BACK WEST ALONG THE ND/SD BORDER THIS EVENING. COMBINATION OF THERMAL UPGLIDE ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID/UPPER LEVEL S/WV WILL BRING A LARGE SWATH OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN ONE-HALF OF NORTH DAKOTA.
MAINLY TO REFLECT THE ONGOING PRECIPITATION THAT EXTENDS FROM SIDNEY MT TO MINOT AND ROLLA AND THE OTHER BATCH OF MORE WELL-DEFINED RAIN APPROACHING FROM THE MOBRIDGE AND ABERDEEN SD AREAS. CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES INVERTED TROUGH STRETCHING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST WITH HIGH OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO AND RIDGE STRETCHING OFF TO THE WEST. THOUGH WITH WARMER AIR MOVING IN ALOFT A PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET WILL NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION. UPPER LOW LOITERS GRADUALLY TO THE NORTH WITH THE NEXT STRONGER WAVE WRAPPING INTO THE AREA. PERIODS OF SNOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST WILL GRADUALLY SWITCH OVER TO RAIN IN THE MORNING WITH THE WARMER AIR MOVING IN. PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONTINUE OVER THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW GRADUALLY WORKS ITS WAY TOWARDS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION TONIGHT EXCEPT FOR INCREASING HIGH CLOUDINESS TO THE SOUTHEAST ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER WYOMING AND COLORADO. BLOCKY UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS CONTINUES WITH WITH A CUT-OFF LOW CENTERED OVER COLORADO FLANKED BY UPPER LEVEL RIDGES TO THE EAST AND WEST AND A DEFORMATION AXIS EXTENDING NORTH THROUGH EASTERN MT. THESE FEATURES REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THE NEXT 2 DAYS WITH JUST A SLIGHT NORTHERLY DRIFT TO THE CLOSED LOW OVER COLORADO. DRY CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO SEASONAL AVERAGES WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK WITH SOME INFLUX OF CLOUD-COVER OVER EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW DRIFTS NORTHWARD.
THE PERSISTENT STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP IT WARM AND DRY THROUGH TUESDAY. THE RIDGE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST AND ALLOW A PLAINS SYSTEM TO MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES LATE IN THE WEEK.
THE COLD FRONT HAS ALSO MOVED INTO CENTRAL OK. THEN, BY WED ISENTROPIC ASCENT MAY SUPPORT ADDITIONAL CHANCES ALONG A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT FIRST ACROSS CENTRAL/W CENTRAL OK AND THEN ACROSS SOUTHERN OK AND WESTERN N TX BY WED EVENING. THIS FRONT SHOULD SURGE SOUTH THUR MORNING AS THE LOW FINALLY OPENS AND MOVES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST, LIKELY ENDING MOST RAIN CHCS BEFORE SUNRISE.
WILL SEE CHANGES LATER TUE AND TUE NIGHT AS ONSHORE FLOW USHERS COOLER AIR ACROSS THE REGION.
152 AM EDT MON APR 18 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH TUESDAY.
326 AM EDT MON APR 18 2016 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH OUT OF CANADA TODAY. THE SHOWERS WILL SPREAD SOUTH OVERNIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER OVER THE REGION RESULTING IN WARMER TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE AREAS WEATHER WITH DRY CONDITIONS INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE EPAC WILL PUMP SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS INTO THE REGION DURING THIS PERIOD.
401 AM EDT MON APR 18 2016 AFTER ANOTHER WARM AND SUNNY DAY TODAY, A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO UPSTATE NY TONIGHT.
633 AM EDT MON APR 18 2016 AFTER ANOTHER WARM AND SUNNY DAY TODAY, A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO UPSTATE NY TONIGHT.
356 AM EDT MON APR 18 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY.
AS MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE BETWEEN IMPULSES GENERATED BY THE UPPER LOW OVER COLORADO. KETCHAM THE UPPER LOW THAT HAS PLAGUED THE PLAINS FOR THE WEEKEND WILL WEAKEN FOR TUE AND WED. WEAK LIFT AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL STILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW AS IT SLOWLY TREKS EAST. WITH A COUPLE OF IMPULSES THAT WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND THIS LOW. REMNANTS OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FINALLY MOVE EAST OF THE PLAINS FOR THU-SAT. WITH WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPS FOR THE PLAINS. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW THE RIDGE AMPLIFYING OVER THE PLAINS FOR THIS TIME FRAME. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY.
635 AM EDT MON APR 18 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE ONE MORE DAY OF MAINLY SUNNY SKIES AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY. LEADING TO SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES.
Valleys have decoupled and are quickly dropping into the 50s, while the warmer metros are still in the 60s and low 70s. Upper ridge will hold through the short term, keeping things sunny and dry. High temps will again be in the low and mid 80s on Monday. The upper ridge does begin to break down on Monday night and this will allow a few upper level clouds to stream into the area.
123 AM EDT MON APR 18 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE REGION EARLY THIS WEEK.
229 AM EDT MON APR 18 2016 MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO THE LOWS OVERNIGHT. READINGS ARE RUNNING A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THIS TIME LAST NIGHT. WITH RIDGES IN THE MID 50S. RIDGING/HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION AT ALL LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN IN FIRM CONTROL OF OUR LOCAL WEATHER. WITH OUR LOW LEVEL PARCEL TRAJECTORIES COMING OUT OF THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM AND NO PATH OVER A GOOD MOISTURE SOURCE. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. AS TWO UPPER LEVEL LOWS REMAIN INTACT AND CREATE AN OMEGA BLOCK ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS. AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN INTO MORE OF AN OPEN WAVE.
217 AM EDT MON APR 18 2016 AFTER ANOTHER WARM AND SUNNY DAY TODAY, A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO UPSTATE NY TONIGHT.
333 AM EDT MON APR 18 2016 HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. HIGHS TODAY WILL TOP OUT IN THE LOWER 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. WHILE RIDGES ONLY COOL TO THE MID TO UPPER 50S. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL FINALLY BUCKLE ENOUGH ON TUESDAY TO ALLOW FOR AN INFLUX OF AT LEAST HIGHER CLOUD COVER. THIS WILL TEMPER THE HIGHS A BIT. BUT MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD STILL SEE LOWER 80S WITH A BIT WARMER START AND STILL PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL DRY AIR IN PLACE.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE WEATHER MOST OF THIS WEEK.
Omega blocking pattern continues with 584m ridge from Magnolia state thru the Ohio valley up to the Badger State. The front side upper low near Bermuda is beginning to slowly pull out out.
Chances are low and given the high uncertainty in occurrence/timing/location, will leave mention out of the TAFs for now. This low will wobble around but eventually move east the next couple of days. High pressure will build in from the west behind this low.
302 AM EDT MON APR 18 2016 HIGH PRESSURE MONDAY. AS THE CENTER OF THE WARM UPPER RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE AREA. RESULTING IN TEMPERATURES REACHING INTO THE LOWER AND MID 80S THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT UNDER WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WHICH WILL KEEP CRITERIA BELOW THAT NEEDED FOR RED FLAG.
327 AM MDT MON APR 18 2016 THE UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AND TOMORROW.
Deep ridging across the entire region and a very dry air mass should lead to a sunny day with fairly light winds.
1125 PM MDT SUN APR 17 2016 THE UPPER LOW WILL CENTER ITSELF ON SOUTH CENTRAL WYOMING TONIGHT AND MONDAY. AS IMPACTS FROM THE UPPER LOW WANE FOR THE GLD FA, THERE IS STILL SOME LIFT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST FA THIS EVENING. VORTICITY LOBE ROTATING AROUND THE MAIN UPPER LOW IN THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
312 AM CDT MON APR 18 2016 00Z UPPER-AIR ANALYSIS AND EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALED A MID TO UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONE OVER WRN CO WITH AN ASSOCIATED VORTICITY LOBE OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS. AND INTO ERN SD BY THIS EVENING WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT ADVANCING EWD THROUGH THE MID AND LOWER MO VALLEY BY 12Z/TUE. ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE EWD-ADVANCING COLD FRONT. THE WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION WILL STUNT THE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE CURVE WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 50S IN NERN NE TO MID 60S IN SERN NE/SWRN IA. DECREASING CLOUDS COUPLED WITH LOW-LEVEL DRY ADVECTION WITHIN THE POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS WILL YIELD COOLER LOWS RELATIVE TO PREVIOUS NIGHTS WITH VALUES FALLING GENERALLY INTO THE 40S. CONTRIBUTING TO THE EWD MOVEMENT OF THE PARENT CLOSED LOW INTO WRN NE.
1054 PM PDT SUN APR 17 2016 High pressure aloft and weak offshore morning winds Monday morning will continue to bring very warm and dry weather to the region, with a few degrees of cooling expected.
311 AM CDT MON APR 18 2016 THE UPPER LOW THAT JUST WOULDN'T GO REMAINS PARKED OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WHERE IT IS FORECAST TO MEANDER EVER SO SLIGHTLY EASTWARD OR NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY. ONE WEAK DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW WILL APPROACH THROUGH FAR WEST TEXAS TODAY WHILE ANOTHER LOBE OF ENERGY ROTATES AROUND THE BASE OF THE LOW ACROSS NEW MEXICO AND TOWARD NORTHWEST TEXAS TONIGHT. RELATIVELY COOL RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE.
AS THE 500 MB RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS SLOWLY TO THE SOUTHEAST. BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SHOULD SLIDE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE LAKESHORE COUNTIES AND NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS EVENING. THIS WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES INTO THESE AREAS. THE CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL SIT OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON TUESDAY.
BUT WINDS WILL SHIFT WESTERLY IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT DROPPING THROUGH NORTHERN MICHIGAN. BETTER MIXING AS THE HIGH CENTER SHIFTS SOUTH OF THE AREA AND A SLIGHT INCREASE IN WIND SPEED SHOULD ALLOW MAX TEMPERATURES TO REACH SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. A LITTLE COOLER NEAR THE LAKESHORES. THIS WILL SHIFT THE UPPER HIGH CENTER DOWN INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND PUSH A WEAK SURFACE DOWN THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES LATE TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL TRAIL BEHIND THE TROUGH AXIS. NORTH OF A LINE FROM BRECKENRIDGE TO FLINT TO ALGONAC LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. AND THEN WITH THE ARRIVAL OF MID/LOW CLOUDS TONIGHT ALONG/BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
359 AM EDT MON APR 18 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE ONE MORE DAY OF MAINLY SUNNY SKIES AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY. LEADING TO SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES.
The ridge of high pressure will continue to breakdown and migrate to the east at the end of this week, as a low pressure system enters the Pacific Northwest.
THE TRIO OF UPPER LEVEL CYCLONES WAS AN IMPRESSIVE SIGHT IN THE SATELLITE IMAGES THIS MORNING.
123 AM EDT MON APR 18 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP MAINLY SUNNY SKIES AND WARM SPRING AIR OVER NEW YORK AND PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT WITH BREEZY AND COOLER CONDITIONS TO FOLLOW FOR TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN CLEAR SKIES OVER THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE LOW TO MID 40S WITH SOME UPPER 30S POSSIBLE IN COLDER SPOTS. AS A RESULT MOST OF THE DAY SHOULD FEATURE MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WITH HIGHS REACHING THE LOW TO MID 70S ONCE AGAIN. THE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA MONDAY EVENING AND MOVE THROUGH NORTH TO SOUTH OVERNIGHT. FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, TUESDAY WILL BE BREEZY AND COOLER WITH EARLY MORNING CLOUDS GIVING WAY TO MAINLY SUNNY SKIES.
AMPLIFIED MID LEVEL FLOW PATTERN CONTINUES THIS MORNING WITH CLOSED LOW OVER THE ROCKIES AND RIDGE FROM THE OH VALLEY SOUTHWARD INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE RIDGE AXIS ACTUALLY BISECTS THE CWA HELPING TO MAINTAIN A WEST TO EAST SURFACE DEWPOINT GRADIENT OVER THE CWA. AREAS TO THE WEST HAVE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S. THE RIDGE LOOKS TO BEGIN BREAKING DOWN AND PUSHING SLOWLY EAST TODAY. THE RIDGE WILL HAVE PUSHED EAST INTO AL. BUT THE DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS OVER THE EAST LOOKS TO REMAIN IN PLACE AS THE LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW REMAINS QUITE WEAK.
WITH ONLY CLOUDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED UPON PASSAGE. CONTINUED DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN THE WEEK AS THE UPPER- LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS FIRMLY IN PLACE. LOCAL URBAN HEAT ISLAND EFFECT COMING THROUGH STRONG AS PITTSBURGH METRO TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID 60S WHILE THE SURROUNDING RURAL ENVIRONS DROP INTO THE 50S AND IN SOME CASES 40S ALREADY. THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO ERODE ALONG THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON AS A WEAK FRONT TRIES TO DIP IN FROM CANADA. ULTIMATELY THE HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR WILL PROVE TOO MUCH FOR PRECIPITATION ALONG THE FRONT. TAX THE STRONG RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL MONDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN TONIGHT AND MAY PRODUCE A BRIEF SHOWER.
DEEP CUT OFF UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN ALONG THE WYOMING/COLORADO BORDER WITH DEEP MOISTURE PLUME BEING PULLED INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. UPPER LOW HAS MOVED VERY LITTLE OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS AS STRONG RIDGING CENTERED JUST TO THE EAST OF ARKANSAS HAS EFFECTIVELY HALTED ANY MOVEMENT. UPPER LOW WILL ONLY MAKE IT AS FAR EAST AS THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD AS IT ATTEMPTS TO MAKE PROGRESSES AGAINST THE RIDGE.
This low will wobble around but eventually move east the next couple of days. High pressure will build in from the west behind this low.
1029 PM PDT SUN APR 17 2016 Strong high pressure will build over the Pacific Northwest through Tuesday leading to dry weather and a warming trend.
316 AM MDT MON APR 18 2016 EARLY MORNING WV IMAGERY SHOWS LARGE SCALE UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO WITH ITS EASTERN EXTENT APPROACHING THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.
WITH ADDITIONAL MOISTURE AND STRONGER ENERGY SET TO WRAP AROUND THE LOW THIS AFTERNOON WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE ADDITIONAL SNOW AMOUNTS NEAR 6 TO 12 INCHES ABOVE 6000FT. SOME SNOW IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE FOOTHILLS BUT THIS WILL LIKELY BE JUST TONIGHT AS THE LOWER LEVELS SHOULD STAY JUST ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH THE DAY. AT THIS POINT THE TRAJECTORY OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE TAKING IT AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA SO LOCATIONS WEST AND NORTH OF BILLINGS/RED LODGE WILL ONLY A TENTH OR TWO OR PRECIPITATION THROUGH THIS EVENT AS THE ENERGY MOVES SOUTH.
107 AM EDT MON APR 18 2016 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL WEAKEN THROUGH THE DAY ALLOWING A WEAK COLD FRONT TO DRIFT ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT.
152 AM EDT MON APR 18 2016 DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING ABOVE NORMAL.
The rest of the west central and southwest Kansas region was within the dry intrusion air stream as the cyclone (still centered over Colorado) is now significantly occluded. The cyclone will continue out west, but we will be watching a smaller scale perturbation rotate around the base of the low, across south central/southeast Colorado later tonight, This feature will lead to enhanced deep tropospheric lifting and subsequent precipitation. Temperatures this afternoon will warm to around 60 across far west central KS to the upper 60s across far south central KS Precip chances return to western Kansas Tuesday as medium range models indicate an H5 vort maxima pivoting around the southern axis of the closed off low in the Rockies, and lifting northeast across the high plains of western Kansas.