Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Water vapor imagery shows northeast KS still in northwest flow ahead of the ridge currently sitting over the Rockies. As we head through the day, this ridge will continue moving east over our area to bring increased southerly winds and WAA, which will help temperatures rise to the low to mid 70s. Benign weather will continue into the evening and overnight, but with breezy winds between 10-20 kts as the pressure gradient increases ahead of the lee trough to our west. The ridge will move entirely east of our area on Friday as the upper- level trough approaches, and a strong pressure gradient along with daytime mixing will allow winds to turn gusty during the late morning into the afternoon.
Tonight and Thursday: A mid-level ridge from the Canadian Rockies to Great Basin will advance into central North America while a surface lee trough deepens over the High Plains. The lee troughing will support strengthening south to southeast winds on Thursday along with warmer temperatures in the mid 60s to lower 70s. Thursday night through Friday night: A fast-moving, mid-level trough will progress from the Interior West into the Great Plains in tandem with a surface cold front. Ahead of the front, breezy to windy conditions are expected on Friday, along with above-normal temperatures in the lower to mid 70s.
Lows tonight should drop into the low to mid 30s just about everywhere, with maybe a couple degrees warmer in WI if the clouds hang on a bit longer than expected. Winds will shift more southerly ahead of an approaching cold front Friday, bringing even warmer air northward. In addition, deep mixing and a thermal ridge sliding overhead will allow temps to reach the mid to upper 60s. Sufficient amounts of moisture should not reach the Upper Midwest before the cold front passes through Minnesota Friday night. A deep trough will develop over the Rockies again this weekend, likely spawning another deep low pressure system in the Plains.
330 AM EDT Thu Oct 17 2019 Rain continues this afternoon through tonight courtesy of a cold front tracking into western NY and a deepening coastal low.
A cold front will push southward across the area this morning bringing much cooler temperatures and increased winds as well as a few mountain showers.
414 AM EDT Thu Oct 17 2019 A deep storm over New England will provide cooler and blustery conditions today into Friday. We are on the gusty back side of the low now and it will be a chilly and windy day.
Satellite imagery showing the cold front located over central Oregon this morning. Ridgetops weather stations over Harney county this morning generally 15-20 mph with gusts 25-30 mph.
315 AM CDT Thu Oct 17 2019 The area currently resides under mostly clear skies, with temperatures hovering around the freezing mark. Despite the chilly start, upper-level ridging sets the stage for ~5 to 10 degrees above average high temperatures today. By tonight, a trough of low pressure and surface cold front will advance into the Dakotas.
347 AM CDT Thu Oct 17 2019 High temperatures will be 7-10 degrees warmer today region-wide as winds veer to the S-SW ahead of the next upper-level trof which is currently moving onshore over northern CA. This trof is expected to deepen and eject into the central plains tomorrow afternoon.
A prefrontal trough containing a thin line of showers is moving across the southernmost portion of the area attm. Highs will range from the low to mid 80s across the north with upper 80s near Lake Okeechobee and inland from the Treasure Cst. For tonight, drier air will funnel south across all inland sites with lows a little cooler in the L-M60s North and U60s-L70s south.
Cool high pressure builds to the Nw of the area today and north of the area tonight producing mostly clear skies light winds and unseasonably cool temps.
An upper low over West TX shift shift east to between San Antonio and LaGrange by 00Z Friday. NE winds in the lowest 5000 ft over eastern counties will keep conditions dry over most areas, but areas closest to and just south of the low could see a few showers and perhaps an isolated storm. Light E/NE low level winds should initially succeed the low and with mostly clear skies dropping temps to a few degrees below morning normals. Near normal highs follow for Friday with mostly sunny skies and weak ridging aloft building east across TX.
Temperatures will be slightly warmer as southerly winds will begin to increase ahead of developing low pressure across the central high Plains. Friday then looks dry and breezy as that low pressure continues to take shape to our west. We will see warmer temperatures with a warm air advection regime in place.
1254 AM CDT Thu Oct 17 2019 230 PM CDT The region remains under cyclonic flow, as the large upper level low slowly spins across the Great Lakes. Rodriguez 308 PM CDT By Thursday night, upper ridging will begin to build across the Mississippi Valley while a long wave trough digs into the western CONUS, bringing the pattern chance toward more warmer conditions for the local area.
346 AM CDT Thu Oct 17 2019 Partly cloudy and seasonably cool conditions were over the region early this morning with light winds courtesy of a ridge of high pressure centered over eastern Iowa. However, despite the sunshine, light winds and relatively shallow mixing under the ridge should limit highs to below normal for mid October. Tonight should see increasing high level clouds from moisture topping the advancing upper level ridge axis, currently over the Rockies, which reaches the western Great Lakes by morning. This, combined with developing southeast winds, will hold lows to the lower to mid 40s west, while the far east may again see upper 30s, and possibly mid 30s in the weaker wind regime.
An upper level low will move across the region overnight and during the day on Thursday.
1101 PM CDT Wed Oct 16 2019 Southerly flow will continue to gradually increase overnight into Thursday as a ridge of high pressure aloft builds onto the Plains. The low level thermal field will warm nicely, but with a slight southeast component to the wind some sights in northwest IA and southwest MN will remain on the cooler side. Highs from the lower 60s in those areas to the lower 70s in south central SD.
A ridge of high pressure sits to our west this evening, with Middle Tennessee enjoying a blissful period of VFR wx following last night's cold fropa.
Light southerly winds today will mark the beginning of warmer temperatures, especially across the western sections of the forecast area. The warmer temperatures will spread further east Friday as southerly winds increase across those areas.
205 AM CDT Thu Oct 17 2019 A mid/upper ridge across the Rockies is progged to translate eastward across the central CONUS today. Afternoon high temperatures are expected to be above normal for mid Oct with values ranging from the lower 70s over far southeast KS to the upper 70s over central KS. A stable post-frontal regime is anticipated across the area on Sat with light winds as a ridge of high pressure builds over the area.
434 AM CDT Thu Oct 17 2019 (Today and Tonight) Clearing skies and warmer temperatures are expected for this morning and also for this afternoon. For tonight, expect low temperatures to be a touch warmer than this morning in the low to mid 50s.
At the SFC, high pressure was centered to our NW across AR into central TX, with at least broad low pressure over the far SW Gulf. NHC currently gives to the low a high chance of developing into a tropical or sub-tropical cyclone. Our next cold front still slated to arrive on MON. 13 A light to modest offshore flow will persist today and Friday as an area of low pressure lifts north out of the Bay of Campeche and crosses the central and northern Gulf of Mexico.
1014 AM EDT Thu Oct 17 2019 Lingering showers will dissipate for much of the area by this afternoon, but will continue through tonight for the I-80 corridor and ridges. The focus area for lake-enhanced showers will continue to shift more to the northeastern CWA and the ridges with time. Shower activity is expected to slowly wane over much of the area through the day, with shower chances continuing along and north of I-80 and along the ridges through tonight. A wind advisory remains in effect until 2 PM for Garrett and Eastern Tucker where the highest wind gusts are possible. Though warmer than Thursday, highs on Friday will once again be limited. The building upper ridge will keep dry and warming weather in the forecast for much of the weekend.
A lengthy, deep layered anticyclone aligned from the Southeast Gulf of Mexico, to across our region and beyond the Bahamian chain will be pressed slowly southeastward, as a formidable southern stream trough in the Southwest Bay of Campeche moves northeastward through the Gulf of Mexico and into the Southeast United States early this weekend.
A cold front is moving across the region today which will cause some showers and winds. Expect winds gusting to 30 MPH in many valleys, while in the highest terrain up to 50 MPH.
908 AM EDT Thu Oct 17 2019 High pressure ridges over southern Florida, while a frontal boundary extends across northern Florida. Latest obs are reporting temps in the low to mid 70's around Tampa Bay, while farther north temps are in the upper 50's. Rain chances will be on the low side today with near average temperatures in the mid 80's. The big weather story over the next 48 hours will be with an area of low pressure over the southwest Gulf of Mexico. The NHC holds chances of tropical cyclone formation at 80 percent over the next 48 hours.
Expansive surface ridging encompasses much of the eastern half of the U. Ridge axis will slide east of the area on Friday allowing temperatures to return closer to average for mid October.
Will see the start of a warming trend this afternoon as an upper level ridge shifts eastward to MO by this evening.
450 AM MDT Thu Oct 17 2019 Strong southwesterly winds today ahead of a strong cold front moving west to east tonight. Gusts today will be as strong as 40 mph for a good portion of the High Terrain. Increasing clouds west to east this evening will indicate the incoming strong cold frontal passage set to occur this Avignon and into Friday. The front will bring a limited amount of precipitation (rain at the lower elevations and snow at the highest elevations) along with a slight chance of thunderstorms during daylight hours as guidance show a limited amount of instability. Colder air will filter in behind the Thursday/Friday cold front, with high temperatures coming down to near normal for this time of year.
350 AM MDT Thu Oct 17 2019 Strong southwesterly winds today ahead of a strong cold front moving west to east tonight. Gusts today will be as strong as 40 mph for a good portion of the High Terrain. Increasing clouds west to east this evening will indicate the incoming strong cold frontal passage set to occur this Avignon and into Friday. The front will bring a limited amount of precipitation (rain at the lower elevations and snow at the highest elevations) along with a slight chance of thunderstorms during daylight hours as guidance show a limited amount of instability. Colder air will filter in behind the Thursday/Friday cold front, with high temperatures coming down to near normal for this time of year.
The area currently resides under mostly clear skies, with temperatures hovering around the freezing mark. Despite the chilly start, upper-level ridging sets the stage for ~5 to 10 degrees above average high temperatures today. By tonight, a trough of low pressure and surface cold front will advance into the Dakotas.
Temperatures are generally in the low to mid 40s with a couple locations in the upper 30s near the Tennessee River. Latest surface analysis places a 1020mb high pressure over the Mid-South. The threat of frost should remain minimal as only a couple of stations are in the upper 30s and dewpoints are mainly in the lower 40s areawide. Looking down at the Gulf Coast, a sub- tropical low pressure system is expected to lift northeast out of the Gulf during the day and move across the Mississippi and Alabama coasts.
The Ohio Valley sits in front of a large upper level trough centered over the Rockies. At the surface, high pressure is centered over the Ozarks. The trough continues to steadily move east and push the high east over Indiana and Kentucky tonight. Today, the high pressure continuing to build over the area will provide clear skies and WNW winds 5-12 mph. This will result in a dry cool day with highs only reaching the low 60s for all but the Bluegrass of Kentucky which will only see the upper 50s. This is about 10 degrees cooler than normal. High pressure ridging from Hudson Bay to the Ohio Valley sliding toward the East Coast will keep our weather dry with partly cloudy skies and seasonable temperatures.
/issued 347 AM CDT Thu Oct 17 2019/ High temperatures will be 7-10 degrees warmer today region-wide as winds veer to the S-SW ahead of the next upper-level trof which is currently moving onshore over northern CA. This trof is expected to deepen and eject into the central plains tomorrow afternoon.
However, northwesterly winds across the higher terrain of Virginia and northeast Tennessee generated cloudier conditions and subsequent cooler temperatures. Winds will gradually weaken as the day progresses while high pressure builds into the region. Chattanooga Airport, TN 64 44 73 48 / 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 61 41 69 45 / 0 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 60 39 69 44 / 0 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 58 36 66 38 / 0 0 0 0.
636 AM EDT Thu Oct 17 2019 Lingering showers will dissipate for much of the area this morning, but will continue through tonight for the I-80 corridor and ridges. Shower activity is expected to slowly wane over much of the area through the morning, with shower chances continuing along and north of I-80 and along the ridges through tonight. A wind advisory remains in effect until 2 PM for Garrett and Eastern Tucker where the highest wind gusts are possible. Though warmer than Thursday, highs on Friday will once again be limited. The building upper ridge will keep dry and warming weather in the forecast for much of the weekend.
Surface ridging will remain in control through today with temps climbing into the upper-60s to low-70s by afternoon. Locally, a fairly amplified mid-level ridge will slide through Friday, followed quickly by a modest mid-level trough and associated surface cold front. Temperatures will gradually moderate through the remainder of the period with highs reaching the low-to-mid-70s by Friday afternoon and lows in the 40s and 50s.
657 AM EDT Thu Oct 17 2019 High pressure will build in through late Friday.
Partly cloudy and seasonably cool conditions were over the region early this morning with light winds courtesy of a ridge of high pressure centered over eastern Iowa. However, despite the sunshine, light winds and relatively shallow mixing under the ridge should limit highs to below normal for mid October. Tonight should see increasing high level clouds from moisture topping the advancing upper level ridge axis, currently over the Rockies, which reaches the western Great Lakes by morning. This, combined with developing southeast winds, will hold lows to the lower to mid 40s west, while the far east may again see upper 30s, and possibly mid 30s in the weaker wind regime.
929 AM EDT Thu Oct 17 2019 High pressure will build in through late Friday.
623 AM EDT Thu Oct 17 2019 VFR through the period at all sites as high pressure prevails.
/issued 434 AM CDT Thu Oct 17 2019/ (Today and Tonight) Clearing skies and warmer temperatures are expected for this morning and also for this afternoon. For tonight, expect low temperatures to be a touch warmer than this morning in the low to mid 50s.
A cold front will bring north winds and cooler temperatures to the area Friday.
/issued 317 AM CDT Thu Oct 17 2019/ Forecast remains on track for warmer temperatures today as a broad, progressive ridge shifts east across the region during the day. Once the ridge axis is east of us by late morning/early afternoon, south-southwesterly winds will pick up and temperatures will climb to near 80 degrees area wide. The longwave pattern remains active into Friday as a deepening trough to the west will have an 80-90kt jet max pushing through New Mexico, and west-southwesterly surface flow up to 20kts by mid afternoon over the southern Texas Panhandle and South Plains. Max temperatures will climb higher from todays values and may be further enhanced by compressional heating out ahead of a cold front marching south through the Texas Panhandle late in the afternoon and early evening.
Mild and breezy conditions continue today ahead of a Pacific cold front. Temperatures trend cooler on Friday, as snow level drop to around 5000 feet. Mild and breezy conditions continue one more day today as the upper level ridge axis shifts away to the east. A progressive upper level trough is moving across the Pacific Northwest this morning. Its associated cold front will cross the Northern Rockies and spread through our central and southwest Montana through this evening.
A cold front will move across the region today bringing clouds and a wind shift from the south to the west and northwest behind it.
645 AM EDT Thu Oct 17 2019 Rain continues this afternoon through tonight courtesy of a cold front tracking into western NY and a deepening coastal low.
Issued by National Weather Service Melbourne FL 1027 AM EDT Thu Oct 17 2019 A weak cold front extends across south FL this morning, roughly between FMY-PBI. A lengthy, deep layered anticyclone aligned from the Southeast Gulf of Mexico, to across our region and beyond the Bahamian chain will be pressed slowly southeastward, as a formidable southern stream trough in the Southwest Bay of Campeche moves northeastward through the Gulf of Mexico and into the Southeast United States early this weekend. There will be a little better chance for isolated showers north of the island chain over the adjacent Gulf waters closer to the proximity of the cold front.
with the cooler air mass moving in behind the front showers will increase in coverage and intensity as the combination of increased lapse rates and another front moving moving into the area. The next front will move onto the coast early this afternoon, and while there is some instability with this front, the cooler temperatures below -25C are north into Portland's forecast area and the slight chance of thunderstorms looks to be from Cape Blanco northward in the coastal waters.
upper level ridging is currently transiting the state with a trough moving into Nevada. A few high to mid level clouds are currently riding up and over the ridge across the state. generally quiet conditions expected through this afternoon as the upper trough to the west approaches the area. A trough of low pressure with an associated cold front is expected to move through Colorado, bringing some breezy winds to the area. Precipitation chances also increase for the higher terrain, especially the central mountains, where some light snow will also be possible. The high valleys should see temperatures in the upper 50s to low 60s.
627 AM CDT Thu Oct 17 2019 A mid/upper ridge across the Rockies is progged to translate eastward across the central CONUS today. Afternoon high temperatures are expected to be above normal for mid Oct with values ranging from the lower 70s over far southeast KS to the upper 70s over central KS. A stable post-frontal regime is anticipated across the area on Sat with light winds as a ridge of high pressure builds over the area.
404 AM MDT Thu Oct 17 2019 Mild and breezy conditions continue today ahead of a Pacific cold front. Temperatures trend cooler on Friday, as snow level drop to around 5000 feet. Mild and breezy conditions continue one more day today as the upper level ridge axis shifts away to the east. A progressive upper level trough is moving across the Pacific Northwest this morning. Its associated cold front will cross the Northern Rockies and spread through our central and southwest Montana through this evening.
938 AM EDT Thu Oct 17 2019 Rain continues this afternoon through tonight courtesy of a cold front tracking into western NY and a deepening coastal low.
739 AM EDT Thu Oct 17 2019 A deep storm over New England will provide cooler and blustery conditions today into Friday. We are on the gusty back side of the low now and it will be a chilly and windy day.
601 AM EDT Thu Oct 17 2019 High pressure will build in through late Friday.
Warmer temperatures into the weekend is the highlight of the forecast.
Cool high pressure builds to the NW of the area today and north of the area tonight producing mostly clear skies light winds and unseasonably cool temps.
With high pressure moving through, winds will be light and variable, generally with speeds less than 6 knots. Surface ridging will remain in control through today with temps climbing into the upper-60s to low-70s by afternoon. Locally, a fairly amplified mid-level ridge will slide through Friday, followed quickly by a modest mid-level trough and associated surface cold front. Temperatures will gradually moderate through the remainder of the period with highs reaching the low-to-mid-70s by Friday afternoon and lows in the 40s and 50s.
An upper level low is gliding across the area this afternoon. Clearing skies and the drier air will help drop overnight lows into the low to mid 50s. Highs on Friday will be from the low to mid 80s across most of the area.
214 PM EDT Thu Oct 17 2019 High pressure ridges over southern Florida, while a frontal boundary extends across northern Florida. Rain chances will be on the low side today with near average temperatures in the mid 80's. The big weather story over the next 48 hours will be with Potential Tropical Cyclone 16 located over the southwest Gulf of Mexico.
218 PM CDT Thu Oct 17 2019 (Tonight and Friday) Water vapor satellite imagery shows an upper level low moving east across the I-10 corridor this afternoon, but a lack of moisture is prohibiting precipitation from occurring across our region. Expect dry weather to continue through Thursday, with some warming as the 850 mb thermal ridge and warm southerly low level flow strengthen. Expect lows tonight in the low 50s and highs Friday in the mid to upper 80s.
as lows dip into the lower to middle 30s east of the I-55 corridor. High pressure will gradually shift eastward across the region tonight. with the ridge axis extending from Michigan to the lower Ohio River Valley by 12z Fri. As a result, am expecting the coldest lows in the lower 30s near the Indiana border. As the high drifts further east, southeasterly winds will increase to 10-15mph by Friday afternoon, helping push highs well into the 60s. A weak cold front will approach from the west Friday night: however, with the strongest upper dynamics remaining well to the north and an overall lack of deep-layer moisture, it appears any associated precip will be quite light.
A mid/upper ridge across the Rockies is progged to translate eastward across the central CONUS today. Afternoon high temperatures are expected to be above normal for mid Oct with values ranging from the lower 70s over far southeast KS to the upper 70s over central KS. A stable post-frontal regime is anticipated across the area on Sat with light winds as a ridge of high pressure builds over the area.
An upper level disturbance near the West Coast will progress eastward and approach the high plains Friday night. Temperatures have been near the warmer HRRR/RAP solutions in this dry pattern and see no reason to deviate from these for today's forecast. On Friday, in this dry and warm regime, opted to go warmer than the guidance, with 80s expected. The attendant cold front will pass across southwestern Kansas Friday evening between 22z and 03z, resulting in a quick northerly wind surge gusting to 35 mph.
131 PM PDT Thu Oct 17 2019 Much cooler across the forecast area today after a cold front pushed through the area.
330 PM EDT Thu Oct 17 2019 Synopsis/Discussion/Marine - Frost and Freezing Temperatures Tonight.
357 PM EDT Thu Oct 17 2019 A deep storm over New England will provide cooler and blustery conditions today into Friday. We are on the gusty back side of the low as it remains quite deep while it moves through New England.