Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Monday, the active weather continues across the area as a warm front moves northward out of Oklahoma into the area which will allow moist air to advect into the CWA. The tornado potential will look to be along the warm front.
153 PM EDT Sun Jun 5 2022 High pressure and dry weather persists through Monday.
A fair amount of sun along and south of I-94 has allowed temperatures to warm nicely into the mid 70s, while locations further north are only in the low 60s. A surface wave will lift northeastward through the area Monday morning, with a cold front eventually pushing through the region from the northwest tomorrow afternoon into tomorrow evening.
Temps most areas should remain fairly steady through late afternoon ranging from the upper 60s to mid 70s, except for cooler 50s/60s readings near the Great Lakes shores. Starting off tonight, closed mid-level low just north of Lake Superior will begin its pivot southeastward into the Upper Great Lakes as a low pressure lifts northeastward into southwest Wisconsin.
239 PM EDT Sun Jun 5 2022 Dry high pressure will control the weather pattern across the region through Monday.
High pressure will continue to linger over the western United States.
High pressure will then prevail into the middle of the week. A cold front could stall over the region late week. Decent northeast flow will provide enough CAA across the Charleston Quad-counties for min temps to drop into the low to mid 60s and well inland. Monday morning the region will be along the western periphery of a mid level ridge.
525 PM MDT Sun Jun 5 2022 The upper level low continues to remain nearly stationary across Ontario, resulting in weak upper level ridging to zonal flow dominating the upper levels with several short wave disturbances propagating within the flow across the Intermountain West.
Tomorrow with the ridge building in from the west subsidence should lead to far less coverage of storms and possibly slightly warmer highs.
Light winds and lows in the lower 70s to around 70.
727 PM EDT Sun Jun 5 2022 Dry high pressure will dominate our weather in the near term. As it shifts offshore Monday, southerly flow on its back side will bring in warmer temperatures.
209 PM MST Sun Jun 5 2022 High pressure will bring hotter temperatures this week, with near record values the second half of the week.
Sprawling high pressure dominates the waters with a relaxed gradient.
Newly developed convection across southern KS is expected to expand in coverage as the low-level jet strengthens and translates east overnight, with organized storms moving into parts of northeast OK toward midnight. (Tomorrow through Sunday) Whatever is left of the overnight MCS should shift east of the area much earlier in the day Monday, allowing for a warmer afternoon.
942 PM EDT Sun Jun 5 2022 Dry high pressure remains in control of the forecast area into Monday.
Showers will continue to decrease in coverage and intensity this afternoon, with warmer and drier weather expected during the coming week.
Additionally, light radar returns are observed along the International Border area in association with an upper low to the north of the border. Low chances for showers will linger through the night and into Monday morning, however, as an area of low pressure passes to the south. Most of the activity from this low is expected to remain to our south, but a few showers may work into far southern areas. Further north, the upper low just to the north of the border will be slow to move out and will pull another area of vorticity across the borderland during the morning hours Monday.
712 PM EDT Sun Jun 5 2022 Dry high pressure will control the weather pattern across the region through Monday.
And the storms may weaken upon entering a cooler air mass during the evening. The storm cluster that moved into eastern Kansas and Oklahoma has pushed cooler air upslope across western Kansas.
Near normal temperatures will change little on Monday then trend warmer to well above normal later in the week.
Tomorrow, a weak ridge in the Caribbean will try to build over the Keys.
High pressure continues to dominate the region with satellite showing scattered diurnal cu across southern Indiana and central KY. Regional observations report temperatures in the low to mid 80s. A low pressure system will move across the Mid-Upper MS Valley tomorrow resulting in a tightening pressure gradient and breezy SSW winds with gusts in the 20-30mph from mid morning and continuing throughout the day. As the low travels northeast of the region through the night, that/those lines should slow down and lay out over our region, from southwest to northeast.
/issued 221 PM CDT Sun Jun 5 2022/ SHORT TERM (Tonight through Monday Night): A mid-level ridge of high pressure builds across Deep South Texas into the new work week, keeping above normal temperatures and dry conditions in place. Low pressure across the Plains and high pressure across the Gulf will maintain breezy southeasterly winds through Monday night.
726 PM EDT Sun Jun 5 2022 High pressure and dry weather persists through Monday.
Looking ahead to this week, a synoptic ridge will stretch out over our region, blocking most of the disturbances and accompanying precipitation from reaching our area.
Additionally, light radar returns are observed along the International Border area in association with an upper low to the north of the border. Low chances for showers will linger through the night and into Monday morning, however, as an area of low pressure passes to the south. Most of the activity from this low is expected to remain to our south, but a few showers may work into far southern areas. Further north, the upper low just to the north of the border will be slow to move out and will pull another area of vorticity across the borderland during the morning hours Monday. An upper low passing to the north of the International Border may bring a few showers to INL this afternoon and tonight, but with dry air near the surface, mostly virga is expected.
Temperatures in the upper 70s to lower 80s this evening expected to fall to the lower/mid 70s by daybreak Monday.
High pressure will build over the southwest United States over the coming days.
1210 AM EDT Mon Jun 6 2022 Upper level low pressure will cross the region this evening followed by high pressure on Monday into Tuesday.
Current temperatures are in the low 70s, with forecasted lows tonight in the upper 60s to lower 70s.
Hodographs indicate a fair amount of cyclonic curvature, especially in the lowest 4 km.
Today: Low pressure centered over southwest Wisconsin this morning will shift to lower Michigan by mid afternoon. A few scattered showers could linger as the upper-level trough axis passes through the area; however, the most notable precipitation will come to an end.
A northerly wind shift from an approaching cold front may impact Southeast New Mexico and the far northern Permian Basin today which may keep temperatures slightly cooler across these areas. The previously mentioned cold front may again reach portions of Southeast New Mexico and the far northern Permian Basin keeping these locations from heating up as much as the rest of the area.
The trough slides east this morning while the fgen/moisture transport push off to the southeast. Locally, this could bring rain chances into parts of northeast IA/southwest WI with the higher threat to the south. * STAYING COOL: May Part 2 The cool start to June looks to continue into the upcoming weekend with the GFS and EC holding onto the zonal flow (with a northwesterly tilt at times) a loft, keeping the cooler-less humid air mass in place.
High pressure will then prevail into the middle of the week. A cold front could stall over the region late week. While a few showers will also occur further north and west of that county, most elsewhere will be rainfree with high pressure and its resulting subsidence building in from the north. Decent northeast flow will provide enough CAA across the Charleston Quad-counties for min temps to drop into the low to mid 60s well inland, with even a few places in the Francis marion down close to 60F. Monday morning the region will be along the western periphery of a mid level ridge.
1101 PM MDT Sun Jun 5 2022 The upper level low continues to remain nearly stationary across Ontario, resulting in weak upper level ridging to zonal flow dominating the upper levels with several short wave disturbances propagating within the flow across the Intermountain West.
The low clouds and fog should dissipate by late this morning. More thunderstorms are expected to develop along the mountains of New Mexico and southern Colorado ahead of another short wave trough Tuesday afternoon. However, more thunderstorms may form in association with the short wave trough Tuesday night and these may have a better chance at moving across the northern Panhandles.
A weak upper trough will skirt our far northern areas (Baker County to the West Central Mountains) for a chance of showers and a slight chance of afternoon thunderstorms. The trough will exit the area Monday night. Dry weather prevails on Tuesday as a weak upper ridge moves into the area.
Meanwhile, temperatures are generally in the low to mid 50s inland with low to upper 40s along the lakeshore, and winds are light and variable. Broad troughing over the eastern half of Canada and parts of CONUS continue to dominate the pattern over our region tonight through the week.
Highs for Tuesday will reach the lower 60s where cloud cover is located, with near 70 degrees where skies remain partly cloudy. The upper level low in NW Ontario which has blocked the moisture from the west and south from our area will start to weaken and drift northeast and eventually allow a 500 mb trough to intensify as it moves into the Pacific Northwest late week with ridging aloft into the northern Plains.
Trough will be ejected out of a tremendously-sized low anchored in the eastern Pacific off the British Columbia coast. This is due to an upper level ridge beginning to dominate northern Rockies and Great Basin weather.
Temps most areas should remain fairly steady through late afternoon ranging from the upper 60s to mid 70s, except for cooler 50s/60s readings near the Great Lakes shores. Broad troughing over the eastern half of Canada and parts of CONUS continue to dominate the pattern over our region tonight through the week.
Still expecting a rising temperature and heat index trend to start out the new week with a persistent onshore flow across our area and a building mid/upper level ridge across the state. Lows will struggle to fall below the low to mid 70s inland and below the low 80s at the coast.
A cold front is forecast to approach on Tuesday, and is expected to focus additional convection.
The hottest temperatures are expected to be co-located with the axis of the 850 mb thermal ridge in our southern and western counties where 850 mb temps will be in the 31-34 deg C range. Temperatures will be slightly lower to the east as the thermal ridge weakens a bit with temperatures in the 27-30 degree range. For now, have gone with temperatures in the low 100s for this area but if the winds veer quicker than our current forecast, temperatures will likely be a bit cooler.
140 AM EDT Mon Jun 6 2022 Showers and thunderstorms return late tonight into Tuesday with a slow cold front. Exiting high pressure will continue to promote dry and seasonable weather today. Warm, moist advection will slowly increase through the day as a split trough axis and elongated surface cold front approach from the west. Model consensus depicts the upper trough axis and associated cold front tracking through the region into Tuesday, increasing rain chances. Drier air and high pressure will quickly move into the region behind the exiting front/trough and support a dry and seasonable overnight period.
Low pressure continues to develop over the central Plains this afternoon heading toward the upper Great Lakes for tonight, developing a warm front to our north. A cold front will trail this system and approach central IL during the day Monday, with showers and thunderstorms spreading into the area starting early in the morning.
This complex's outflow was enhancing a weak cold front across the TX Panhandle and this boundary will continue sinking south and across much of our area shortly after daybreak.
Dewpoint temperatures by Tuesday afternoon will reach into the lower 70s, so increased humidity levels are on their way also. surface frontal system through Tuesday with main surface/low level high pressure influences shifting eastward allowing for this increasingly moist and unstable airmass to become entrenched across our area.
Scattered shower and thunderstorm activity is expected to continue through this evening as subtle mid-level troughing continues to move across the area. Mid to upper level trough will be east of the region Monday night and ridging will begin to build across the region.
230 AM CDT Mon Jun 6 2022 (Issued 230 AM CDT Mon Jun 6 2022) Today through Tuesday: Ongoing rain area being driven by northward advancing warm front along with an H8 LLJ and weaker vorticity maxima. A surface cold front is then proggd to drop into area this afternoon into early this evening. High pressure ridges in for Tuesday with north winds gradually becoming onshore.
Tomorrow, a ridge will build into the Southwest and Southern Plains, pushing an upper level system into the Upper Great Lakes. The ridge will get anchored across the SW CONUS while the upper level low gets situated up near Hudson Bay.
One was affecting parts of Nrn and Ern AR, assocd with a weak mid lvl trof passing thru the region.
For temps, expect some near normal highs today with much of the area getting to the mid 80s, then a bit warmer for Tuesday (much of central GA reaching the low 90s).
To start the period, satellite imagery is depicting a large upper level low spinning over the far northeastern Pacific Ocean. Lagging upper level support will remain tonight into Tuesday morning before weak ridging builds in Tuesday night.
A cold front is also located across the Great Basin region. Unsettled and cooler weather will continue for a couple of more days before a shift to a warmer and somewhat drier pattern takes place later this week and into the weekend. Tuesday will be on the cooler side again, with highs in the 60s and lower 70s, and continued chances for showers and thunderstorms.
We received a few reports of dime to penny sized hail but would not be surprised if there were a few larger hail stones in some of the more rural storms given the high reflectivity radar signatures during the late afternoon and early evening hours. Ridging aloft should build eastward across the north central Gulf Coast region on Tuesday. High temperatures Monday and Tuesday should range in the lower to mid 90s over inland areas and in the upper 80s to around 90 near the immediate coast and beaches. Lows Monday night should be in the upper 60s to around 70 over inland locations and in the lower to mid 70s near the immediate coast.
Highs will be a touch warmer - in the lower to mid 70s.
High pressure builds over U. The exiting trough will result in a more zonal flow pattern across the area today. Lighter winds and temperatures climbing into the lower to upper 80s will occur Tuesday under mostly sunny skies. Low temperatures tonight will be cool in the lower to mid 40s for most locations, with some upper 30s across Elko county. A bit warmer Tuesday night with lows in the 40s and lower 50s.
Elongated hodographs and higher shear values join moderately favorable mid-level lapse rates with continued moisture advection in the low levels to allow surface- based CAPE values to reach 800-1500 J/kg.
Ridging aloft should help to keep rain chances low to no through the afternoon.
With plenty of cloud cover arriving overnight the low temperatures will be warmer than the last few nights, bottoming out in the lower to mid 60s. Much of the day should be socked in with clouds so afternoon temperatures will be mainly in the lower to mid 70s. Tuesday We'll get a short break from the rain with high pressure overhead leading to nice early summer weather with temperatures in the 70s.
The rest of today should remain dry, with forecast high temperatures reaching the low-mid 80s for most.
A warming trend will commence through the week as high pressure builds.
Otherwise, cooler than average temperatures expected for the start of the week with continuing chances of rain off and on through early Tuesday. Otherwise, a weak upper level ridge just to our west, with a troughing pattern across the western part of the United States. ECMWF-HiRes keeps most of the higher CAPE/instability well to our south in NE/KS. In our southern CWA, along with the higher CAPE and DP, lapse rates (HRRR) do increase 5-6 degrees C/km^-1 which will aid in vigorous convection that could produce stronger thunderstorms.
Newly developed convection across southern KS is expected to expand in coverage as the low-level jet strengthens and translates east overnight, with organized storms moving into parts of northeast OK toward midnight.
Current water vapor(WV) imagery showing one upper trof overhead, and another one upstream west of the MO RVR Valley. Tightened temp gradient showing quasi-stationary sfc front almost bi-secting the DVN CWA from ENE-to- WSW, with warmer temp pool currently acrs the southeast third of the fcst area. Breaks in the debris fields to allow for heating could boost afternoon MLCAPES to 1200-1600 J/kg levels in spots, especially along and south of I-80 south of the main front where afternoon temps should climb to around 80 with sfc DPTs in the low to mid 60s. 6+ inch PWATs, locally heavy rain and high rainfall rates still may be the higher threat for downpour swaths of 1-2+ inches.
Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Closed upper-level low pressure currently sits near the MN/Ontario border at this early hour with mid-upper level troughing slowly rotating across the northern Great Lakes. This system's warm front is currently situated west to east across central lower Michigan with the elevated portion of this baroclinic zone running a bit farther north with fgen response resulting in widespread rain across much of the northern lower. Warm front continues to slowly trek north to near the Tip of the Mitt by early afternoon with a trailing cold front sweeping west to east across the forecast area this evening into the early overnight hours. Aforementioned cold front crosses west to east this evening into the overnight hours -- largely bringing an end to any lingering shower activity. Lesser amounts north of the bridge.
350 AM EDT Mon Jun 6 2022 High pressure will continue to be present through the early morning hours before shifting off to the northeast. With the weak flow, the circulation will park itself over the northern Great Lakes area before dragging a cold front through the forecast area later this evening. Highs for today look to be in the low to mid 80s with temperatures being a few degrees cooler for Tuesday. Models have the far southwestern counties in the cross-hairs with the highest QPF amounts which are upwards of an inch and three-quarters.
SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday): Mid-level high pressure axis extending across NW Mexico through Texas remains in place through the short-term period. The subsidence, dry air, a southerly flow combines with the high sun angle edging 850mb temperatures up a few degrees into the 26-28C degree range which will bump up ambient temperatures a few more degrees today and Tuesday. Deeper mixing today with the higher daytime temperatures should allow dew points to be a few degrees lower this afternoon keeping heat indices just shy of heat advisory, >110F. The pressure gradient between the Gulf ridge and lower pressure over the Southern and Central Plains strengthens through Monday morning with a low level jet peaking around 35 knots.
234 AM EDT Mon Jun 6 2022 Dry high pressure remains in control of the forecast area today with near normal temperatures. The pattern begins to change on Tuesday as southeasterly flow sets up between the departing high pressure and the next storm system.
High pressure will prevail today followed by a weak warm frontal passage Tue accompanied with isolated convection. Rain chances increase Wed and Thu as a series of upper disturbances cross the area and a weak cold front stalling near the coast late in the week. A much stronger cold frontal passage will occur over the weekend. Highs today should reach the mid to upper 80s with cooler numbers nearer the ocean. Lows tonight will fall to the low to mid 60s with higher numbers nearer the beaches where rip current risks are moderate to high today. Weak warm frontal passage Tue may be highlighted with isolated convection and ptly cloudy skies. A slowly approaching cold front dropping from the NW-N Wed, will only be on the doorsteps come late Wed night.
This wave will push a cold front through the area this afternoon. The HREF showed MUCAPES of 500-1000 j/kg E and S of KBIL this afternoon with lesser values NE as it will be cooler and more stable there. An inverted trough will bring surface convergence to SE MT, providing a focus for thunderstorm development. PoPs cover the entire area this afternoon with the highest PoPs in the convergence area. Arthur Overall, the weather through the extended looks unsettled, with periods of ridging and warmer conditions followed by disturbances bringing shower and thunderstorm chances along with cooler conditions.
Meanwhile, enhanced vertical motion will be supported by the presence of upper-level jet entrance region dynamics while the low-level jet aligns with convection.
355 AM EDT Mon Jun 6 2022 High pressure will build over the area today then slide east of the region on Tuesday.
Concur with deterministic output which builds an upper ridge over the region during the period.
The subtropical ridge axis extends from the central Atlantic, westward across the Bahamas and Cuba. The subtropical ridge axis will begin slowly pivoting northward over the next 24 hours. By Tuesday, an upper level trough will dig into the eastern Gulf of Mexico, which will lend some support and allow for a greater coverage in showers and thunderstorms. The ridge axis will then stall over or near the Straits of Florida, maintaining enhanced moisture across the region and near to slightly above normal rain chances through the end of the week.
1004 AM EDT Mon Jun 6 2022 Weak high pressure builds in over the area producing a light wind flow and above average temperatures across west central and southwest Florida. Latest HRRR model guidance keeps the highest rain and storm chances along the Nature Coast and inland areas this afternoon. Above average temperatures continue through the week with daytime highs in the low to mid 90s. Pleasant boating conditions expected through the week as weak high pressure builds in over the area. Rain and storm chances will remain on the low side as well, with the highest chances near the coast as storms move over the eastern gulf waters each afternoon/evening.
Additionally, a short wave trough moving through the northern Gulf has pushed the southern jet stream southward over the Keys; oriented southwest to northeast.
High pressure will continue to be present through the early morning hours before shifting off to the northeast. With the weak flow, the circulation will park itself over the northern Great Lakes area before dragging a cold front through the forecast area later this evening. Highs for today look to be in the low to mid 80s with temperatures being a few degrees cooler for Tuesday. Models have the far southwestern counties in the cross-hairs with the highest QPF amounts which are upwards of an inch and three-quarters.
Again, much of this should remain north but models continue to indicate that some storms could affect the Highway 82 corridor and north. Highs today will be warm and in the lower to mid 90s. Overnight lows will be warm with readings in the lower 70s.
A weak ridge develops over Montana by midweek for drier weather and warming temperatures.
The KOHX VAD wind profile confirms 25-30 kt winds in the lower levels.