Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Chattanooga Airport, TN 71 91 71 90 / 10 30 30 40 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 68 87 69 87 / 10 20 20 40 Oak Ridge, TN 68 88 69 87 / 10 20 20 40 Tri Cities Airport, TN 64 87 67 86 / 10 20 20 30.
Weak upper trough also holding over the region and that is helping to keep lapse rates steeper and overall instability favorable. High pressure in the lower levels will lift off to the east by the end of the taf period. Furthermore, an upper level trough axis continues to reside just west of our area.
on the nose of the low level jet pushing up through central SD. southward into ncntrl SD west of Mobridge. The section south of Minot through Bismarck into Mobridge shows the highest potential for developing a bowing segment into east-central and southeastern ND through the late evening. An approaching upper level low over the northern Rockies continues to progress eastward today. Currently expecting storms to develop in northeast SD in the vicinity of warm frontal boundary pushing northward. areas of heavy rain will be possible as well due to recent rains and the high amount of potential moisture with this system. A cold front will push east late in the day tomorrow. with the highest threat in the Red River Valley and eastward. Monday evening will see cold front move east and northeast around the 500 mb low to our west.
Water vapor shows upper ridge shifting through the nrn plains as upper low moves into the nrn Rockies. Cdfnt will continue to sweep through our cwfa with gusty w/nw winds and cooler temps in its wake.
1042 PM EDT SUN JUL 10 2016 High pressure will build overhead tonight before sliding east Monday. A trough will move into the Great Lakes late in the week bringing back chances of showers and thunderstorms. High pressure centered just upstream will settle over the region tonight providing mainly clear skies and light winds, allowing for good radiational cooling. High pressure will continue to dominate Monday as it drifts slowly into New England. Developing warm air advection will push afternoon temperatures away from the lakes into the lower to mid 80s. After a respite this weekend, mid-summer heat will once again build across the forecast area as a stout upper level ridge currently over the Great Plains makes its way eastward across the Great Lakes.
A sfc trof across the NM/TX stateline is bringing gusty southerly winds BTWN 20 to 30 kts w/higher gusts across the combined Panhandles. Southwest winds will remain strong overnight and into Monday due to surface and low level confluence ahead of the lee side trough.
Looking to tomorrow, we continue to look to be in an area of midlevel anticyclonic vorticity advection as the trough departs and the ridge over the Desert Southwest attempts to build back towards our direction.
Strong surface heating across the higher elevations of SE Colorado and back into the mesa area has resulted in high based ACCAS with some apparent vertical extent. A cold front will stall out across western Kansas after the end of the period.
/issued 320 PM CDT SUN JUL 10 2016/ A general area of troughiness across the Four-State Region coupled with dewpoints in the 60s and 70s and lingering old outflow boundaries, has led to the development of scattered showers and thunderstorms late this aftn, mainly across the ARKLATEX. The UA trough will linger across the area tomorrow, though lifting Northeast leading to best precip chances shifting to the Eastern zones.
Convective evolution should be slightly different tomorrow with the sea breeze pushing inland a little quicker due to the Bermuda high pressure ridge axis gradually lifting back into central Florida. Axis of Bermuda high pressure ridge has migrated north slightly and will provide a more south/southeast wind flow. The persistent high pressure ridge has been providing a period of south/southeast flow especially over the Treasure Coast waters. With the high pressure ridge nudging a little farther north through the week, south/southeast winds should start to cause some upwelling along the Space Coast and maybe even reaching the Volusia county waters.
1118 PM CDT SUN JUL 10 2016 Temperatures will begin to cool shortly with the lower sun angle and cirrus overhead. Slightly cooler temperatures return as well, however, highs will still reach up into the upper 80s to low 90s by afternoon. Monday night, although the surface front will push well southeast of the area, a slight chance for elevated showers or storms across the far southeast zones as the upper trough passes through.
Water Vapor Satellite trends this evening place an upper level low near the Tennessee, Mississippi, Alabama border.
/Issued 247 PM CDT SUN JUL 10 2016/ Some isolated to widely scattered storms exist over SE OK and W AR mainly along and east of an H5 trough axis. The H5 trough slides a bit farther east on Monday suggesting that the bulk of the afternoon storms will be east of the forecast area.
Coulston /UPDATED 2340Z/ First of several rounds of widespread -SHRA (along with isolated SHRA and -TSRA), associated with deep, moist low pressure system heading toward the Northern Rockies, is currently moving through central and southwest MT. Center of the low pressure system will be near KGGW by 18Z, but additional moisture will wrap around the backside of the low, keeping the -SHRA/SHRA going through Mon aftn.
Northern half will be more exposed to the wrap-around precip from the upper low in central Idaho. Low pressure system moving from Oregon into the Idaho Central Mountains this afternoon, and may already be crossing into Montana.
636 PM CDT SUN JUL 10 2016 Warm front over western Illinois looks to be nearly stationary at this time. Dewpoints have jumped up into the low to mid 70s along and west of the Mississippi this afternoon and temperatures are a little warmer than previously forecast in the upper 80s to low 90s. Expect a quiet remainder of the night with lows a bit warmer than Sunday's mainly in the low to mid 70s. Should feel like a fairly typical hot and humid mid-July day with air temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s across the area and dewpoints in the low to mid 70s again.
A strong cold front will continue to move south through Utah tonight. This will bring significantly cooler temperatures and dry weather to Utah and southwest Wyoming for the first part of the workweek. Unseasonably strong trough swinging through the Great Basin tonight through Monday. Cold front currently stretches from the Uinta Basin through southwest Utah. The cold front will only move slowly south through the remainder of the CWA tonight as parent trough pushes east of the area.
Convection has been less intense this afternoon due to cooler low level temperatures and weaker mid level lapse rates.
711 PM CDT SUN JUL 10 2016 Temperatures will begin to cool shortly with the lower sun angle and cirrus overhead. Slightly cooler temperatures return as well, however, highs will still reach up into the upper 80s to low 90s by afternoon. Monday night, although the surface front will push well southeast of the area, a slight chance for elevated showers or storms across the far southeast zones as the upper trough passes through.
The cold upper low that brought well below normal temperatures and mountain snow (above 6000 feet in the McCall area) is exiting to the northeast tonight. Isolated shower and thunderstorm activity on the backside of the low will diminish across southeast Oregon and much of southwest Idaho through sunset. Very cool, rainy, and breezy weather today as deep upper low tracks directly through our CWA, something that almost never happens in July. The last holdout for storms should be the highlands south of the Snake Basin this evening. Clearing and cooler tonight. Mostly sunny and warmer later Monday.
a weakness in the ridge/shear axis will remain across the cwfa for much of the period. At the surface, a low pressure trough should remain situated across northern/northeast GA through the period. With the combination of the shear axis in the mid level and the trough at the surface, convection should tend to focus along these features for much of the week. Best convective chances on Monday will be after 20z Mon and should be isolated in coverage as ridge builds slightly over head from the east-southeast.
Tonight, Low temperatures will be in the lower to mid 70s. Upper level ridging will move back over the forecast area. The upper ridge will build over the southeastern states on Monday as the surface boundary shifts back northward over the northern Midlands. The upper trough remains nearly stationary over the Tennessee valley although a piece of energy could move over the region in southwesterly flow aloft helping to initiate convection. Temperatures will be a bit cooler with a few more clouds expected.
1008 PM EDT SUN JUL 10 2016 High pressure lingers into Monday. Warmer and more humid as we head through the work week.
746 PM EDT SUN JUL 10 2016 High pressure will build overhead tonight before sliding east Monday. A trough will move into the Great Lakes late in the week bringing back chances of showers and thunderstorms. High pressure centered just upstream will settle over the region tonight providing mainly clear skies and light winds, allowing for good radiational cooling. High pressure will continue to dominate Monday as it drifts slowly into New England. Developing warm air advection will push afternoon temperatures away from the lakes into the lower to mid 80s. After a respite this weekend, mid-summer heat will once again build across the forecast area as a stout upper level ridge currently over the Great Plains makes its way eastward across the Great Lakes.
635 PM CDT SUN JUL 10 2016 Radar imagery shows the back edge of the thunderstorm cluster to the south is just about to exit Hancock county, while the secondary cluster that was early occurring in the highway 20 corridor has dissipated altogether. Additional convection moving east across the highway 20 corridor will likely make it into the north before the storms become elevated this evening.
Low temperatures will be in the lower to mid 70s. Upper level ridging will move back over the forecast area tonight. The upper ridge will build over the southeastern states on Monday as the surface boundary shifts back northward over the northern Midlands. The upper trough remains nearly stationary over the Tennessee valley although a piece of energy could move over the region in southwesterly flow aloft helping to initiate convection. Temperatures will be a bit cooler with a few more clouds expected.
716 PM EDT SUN JUL 10 2016 High pressure lingers into Monday. Warmer and more humid as we head through the work week.
There were more storms today as high pressure continues to weaken a bit. /issued 352 PM CDT SUN JUL 10 2016/ Latest surface analysis showed a ridge of high pressure from florida peninsula to the northwest Gulf of Mexico. In addition, a trough was located central Arkansas to south central Mississippi. Upper air analysis and ir satellite imagery showed a positively tilted trough axis eastern Kentucky to northwest Louisiana and scattered convection south of the axis over the Lower Mississippi Valley. 500mb ridge has retreated west with axis from Baja California to Central PLains. ahead of upper level trough axis. Upper level trough axis or weakness is expected to stay around the area for most of the week.
Weak upper trough also holding over the region and that is helping to keep lapse rates steeper and overall instability favorable. High pressure to our north resides in the lower levels but is on its way eastward. This is all due to an increase in moisture and instability which will combine with a stationary upper trough axis, located just west of the mid state.
/issued 333 PM CDT SUN JUL 10 2016/ Mid level high pressure in clear control of SW US weather today. Otherwise, surface pressure trough will maintain a breezy south wind through Monday and we will add a couple more degrees for highs Monday under slowly expanding layer thickness, rendering all locations near the century mark once again.
628 PM CDT SUN JUL 10 2016 Anticipating isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms to form along the lee trough near the KS/CO border this afternoon, on southern fringe of large scale forcing associated with strong northwest CONUS upper trough. Warm and windy weather Monday, as a cold front approaches from the northwest.
1001 PM EDT SUN JUL 10 2016 High pressure will keep dry weather over the area tonight through Monday.
523 PM MDT SUN JUL 10 2016 Severe convection has exited our east as cooler/gusty north winds overspread SE MT. We will still see showers and scattered non-severe thunderstorms as upper low moves in from the west. Per lowering freezing levels, could see small hail with any moderate showers. Thus it appears the cold front was trying to develop E of KBIL. Jet divergence will move north during the evening and more divergence will affect the western zones overnight as the jet rotates around the low into eastern MT. The upper low and accompanying q-vector convergence will move through the region tonight. The low will lift NE Mon. Airmass will be cooler and soundings showed a lot of wind potential with the GFS showing more wind than the WRF. Still expect a few inches of snow in the higher elevations through Mon.
Afternoon temperatures on the lower deserts will remain near or a few degrees above normal. Latest streamline analysis shows westerly flow across the region between a trough across the Great Basin and an anticyclone stretching across northern Mexico. Mid-level temperatures associated with the anticyclone are exceptionally warm. Slightly cooler temperatures aloft were noted on the Phoenix sounding, though still above 90th percentile. A series of deep upper-level trofs that will be moving eastward across the Pacific NW/northern Great Basin are expected to keep the Desert Southwest under deep westerly flow aloft through the entire period.
Looking to tomorrow, we continue to look to be in an area of midlevel anticyclonic vorticity advection as the trough departs and the ridge over the Desert Southwest attempts to build back towards our direction. In the near term, low amplitude mid level trough continues to sag across ern tx keeping mid/high clouds in place over much of sern TX this afternoon. in its stead, a flat ridge will become established and hold through the week. Forecast will remain near climatology with highs topping out in the lower to mid 90s with overnight lows in the upper 70s to lower 80s along the coast. Heat indicies in the lower to mid 100s will remain in play each day.
An unseasonably cool low pressure system was moving well east of southwest Washington and northwest Oregon this evening with decreasing showers.
WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY PULLING NORTH WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY. Chattanooga Airport, TN 71 90 72 92 / 40 40 20 40 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 70 88 70 90 / 30 40 30 40 Oak Ridge, TN 70 87 70 90 / 30 40 30 30 Tri Cities Airport, TN 68 86 67 87 / 30 50 40 30.
This would tend to have the highest likelihood of affecting KCDS closer to daybreak. /issued 333 PM CDT SUN JUL 10 2016/ Mid level high pressure in clear control of SW US weather today. Otherwise, surface pressure trough will maintain a breezy south wind through Monday and we will add a couple more degrees for highs Monday under slowly expanding layer thickness, rendering all locations near the century mark once again.
709 PM EDT SUN JUL 10 2016 High pressure will keep dry weather over the area tonight through Monday.
918 PM CDT SUN JUL 10 2016 Thunderstorms have dissipated with loss of daytime heating as anticipated, and any additional storms overnight associated with weak upper trough should remain well to our east. /Issued 247 PM CDT SUN JUL 10 2016/ Some isolated to widely scattered storms exist over SE OK and W AR mainly along and east of an H5 trough axis. The H5 trough slides a bit farther east on Monday suggesting that the bulk of the afternoon storms will be east of the forecast area.
Radar imagery shows the back edge of the thunderstorm cluster to the south is just about to exit Hancock county, while the secondary cluster that was early occurring in the highway 20 corridor has dissipated altogether. Additional convection moving east across the highway 20 corridor will likely make it into the north before the storms become elevated this evening.
515 PM MDT SUN JUL 10 2016 Water vapor shows upper ridge shifting through the nrn plains as upper low moves into the nrn Rockies. Cdfnt will continue to sweep through our cwfa with gusty w/nw winds and cooler temps in its wake.
534 PM CST Sun Nov 20 2016 VFR conditions expected for the next 24 hours as high pressure continues to ridge into the region. /ISSUED 353 PM CST Sun Nov 20 2016/ A bit cooler last night than expected for northern areas of the FA. Light onshore winds are expected to develop tonight and then strengthen by tomorrow afternoon as the next upper trof begins to move in from the west.
In the low levels of the atmosphere, a large area of high pressure over the north central United States will build southeastward down the Florida peninsula overnight. In the mid levels of the atmosphere, an area of high pressure will be centered over the western Gulf of Mexico tonight.
1003 PM EST Sun Nov 20 2016 High pressure builds into the region into Monday.
644 PM EST Sun Nov 20 2016 High pressure builds into the region into Monday.
Warmer temperatures are forecast across all of West Central Texas on Monday, with highs mainly in the low to mid 70s.
Light and variable winds and CAVU overnight as high pressure remains in the vicinity.
525 PM CST Sun Nov 20 2016 A 1030 mb high pressure ridge sprawled across the MS river valley, will drift slowly eastward across IL and into IN by sunset Monday. Meanwhile an upper level ridge over the High Plains will drift east toward the MS river valley by early Monday evening. The low stratocumulus clouds (bases 3-4k ft) will stay ne of Hoopeston/Vermilion county rest of today, associated with strong 523 dm 500 mb low exiting over New England.
SFC winds to become more SE and then S as high pressure shifts east of the area on MON. /issued 355 PM CST Sun Nov 20 2016/ High pres ridges over the lower MS valley today, resulting in light easterly winds acrs the area. As a result, conditions are rather pleasant this aftn with temperatures in the lower to middle 60s. Winds will gradually shift more southeasterly, and this will bring a return of low lvl moisture that will help moderate overnight lows and lead to warmer more humid daytime conditions. Temperatures this morning ended up a few degrees cooler than anticipated, and although lows may be a degree or two warmer tonight than last night, some spots acrs central LA could see a light freeze by Monday morning.
02Z temps were mainly in the U40s-L50s, a couple degrees warmer around the Orlando metro, and a couple ticks cooler in rural wind-sheltered locales. High pressure ridge will hang back to the northwest, which will maintain a northerly wind flow. (from previous) High pressure to the north drifts eastward and across the Carolina coast during the mid week.
534 PM CST Sun Nov 20 2016 A large upper level ridge sits over the central portion of the country with an elongated area of high pressure extending along the Mississippi River creating dry conditions with average temperatures around the region. With clear skies temperatures will drop back down below freezing for most areas with the KC metro area staying slightly above freezing tonight.
Much of the CONUS is under the influence of a large ridge with the axis currently centered over the eastern Rockies. Upstream another upper low was noted just off British Columbia, with a trough extending south along the Pacific coast. Meanwhile at the surface, our CWA is sitting in between high pressure over the MS River Valley and lee troughing to the west, resulting in southerly flow for today. No significant weather expected as we remain under the influence of the upper ridge. Winds should become variable overnight before picking up again late tomorrow morning ahead of the next approaching low pressure system.
The axis of an upper trough is currently knocking on the door step of the Bay Area per water vapor satellite and 500 mb height charts. For the near term, the trough will continue to shift east through this evening. Given that the upper trough has yet to pass through and there are still a few hours of heating left, decided to leave thunderstorms in the forecast. Drier weather is forecast on Monday afternoon/evening with very subtle ridging aloft.
437 PM MST Sun Nov 20 2016 Broad upper-level ridging remains intact over much of the western/ central CONUS this afternoon.
As high pressure filtered into the region, the pressure gradient relaxed which resulted in calmer winds today. Given the dry ground, we are expected to get cooler tonight for most locations than last night/this morning and another widespread freeze is expected. Upper level ridging will also take hold and this will allow for a dry, sunny and slightly warmer day. North/northeastern locales may only top out in the lower to mid 60s after a much colder anticipated start. Still went with a limited risk for fire danger in the east given the low RH values.
/ISSUED 255 PM CST Sun Nov 20 2016/ Low level warm air advection will increase across the region through Monday night ahead of a developing low pressure system currently off the West Coast. The increase in low level moisture will result in a much warmer night tonight with overnight lows generally in the 40s.
1030 PM EST Sun Nov 20 2016 Ridge of high pressure extending south along the Mississippi Valley tonight will move east over Middle Tennessee tomorrow. across much of the area with RH values dipping into the lower 20's in spots. Forecast looks to be on track for the overnight with lows settling into the teens over higher elevations and the low to middle 20s elsewhere under clear skies and light winds. Chattanooga Airport, TN 28 56 30 62 / 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 24 51 27 58 / 0 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 24 51 27 57 / 0 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 21 47 22 54 / 0 0 0 0.
Quiet weather for the next couple of days as deep layer moist cyclonic flow is gradually replaced by prominent upper ridging forced by continued western US height falls. This will in turn support a slight improvement in temps, especially southeast of the ridge, and perhaps a few hours of sunshine at least over the SE half of the CWA.
938 PM CST Sun Nov 20 2016 Surface ridging continues to maintain its influence on the region, but evening surface analysis shows that this feature has begun to shift east of the region. As a result, expect overnight temperatures a few degrees warmer than what was observed this morning with lows in the mid 30s to mid 40s inland and low 50s along the coast. /ISSUED 534 PM CST Sun Nov 20 2016/ VFR conditions expected for the next 24 hours as high pressure continues to ridge into the region. /ISSUED 353 PM CST Sun Nov 20 2016/ A bit cooler last night than expected for northern areas of the FA. Light onshore winds are expected to develop tonight and then strengthen by tomorrow afternoon as the next upper trof begins to move in from the west.
Cross sections and forecast soundings already indicate moist levels above 500mb and this trend will continue as moisture infiltrates the lower levels. Currently, the upper level trough and surface cold front are moving ashore along the West coast.
By Monday, a cold front will move into Arizona lowering snow levels and bringing some light snow accumulations to the high country of Arizona during the afternoon and evening hours.
Weak low-level warm advection will begin to slowly draw a bit more moisture northward overnight, but the main push will wait until Monday and Monday night ahead of an approaching low pressure system. /ISSUED 255 PM CST Sun Nov 20 2016/ Low level warm air advection will increase across the region through Monday night ahead of a developing low pressure system currently off the West Coast. The increase in low level moisture will result in a much warmer night tonight with overnight lows generally in the 40s.