Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Additional showers and thunderstorms are likely Wednesday night as a cold front pushes through the area.
513 PM EST Tue Dec 14 2021 Dry and warm weather will continue through Wednesday night under high pressure.
634 PM EST Tue Dec 14 2021 Dry and warmer through mid week.
SHORT TERM (Tonight through Wednesday Night): Due to the 500 hpa ridge in the Gulf of Mexico, subsidence provided us with above normal temperatures again today with highs in the mid 80s across the CWA and moderate southeasterly flow with gusts up to 20 kts. This high pressure system will give us rain-free weather through the short term period. As for Wednesday, the mid-level ridge over the western Gulf of Mexico helps to keep the low pressure system situated over the Plains through the rest of the short term period. However, this trough will tighten our pressure gradient here in Deep South Texas slightly and increase our winds for Wednesday.
505 PM MST Tue Dec 14 2021 A sharp cold front pushed through the area today, brining much colder temperatures to the North-Central Plains.
The cold front has currently moved into southwest Montana this afternoon as Butte is 41 degrees while Anaconda is experiencing moderate snow with a temperature of 30 degrees. A weak ridge of high pressure should move over the Northern Rockies tonight allowing for the precipitation to finally diminish.
/issued 226 PM CST Tue Dec 14 2021/ Southwesterly flow aloft will prevail over the Midsouth through the weekend, around a 588dm 500mb height ridge over the Gulf of Mexico. This ridge will be most amplified into the lower MS River valley tonight, with mild temperatures and moderate humidity prevailing. An upper level low will lift from the 4-corners through the central plains on Wednesday, suppressing the ridge and exposing the Midsouth to stronger southwesterly flow aloft.
An associated mid-latitude cyclone will quickly intensify (to ~985 mb) in the lee of the Rockies (invof the CO/NE/KS border) Wednesday morning. the sudden/rapid development and progressive nature of this cyclone -- and significant (albeit short-lived) weather associated with it -- is somewhat analogous to (or reminiscent of).
737 PM EST Tue Dec 14 2021 High pressure down the eastern seaboard to the east Gulf this evening begins to shift offshore. High pressure dominates for the next few days with northeast and east winds mainly 15 knots or less.
With system approaching from the Plains, gradient will increase, with south winds becoming gusty, especially in the higher terrain during the day tomorrow, as well as the Delta Region.
702 PM EST Tue Dec 14 2021 High pressure will build over the region through the middle of the week, with dry conditions and gradually warming temperatures. The high will shifts further offshore late in the week and the developing southerly flow will cause temperatures to rise well above normal late in the week into the early weekend.
944 PM EST Tue Dec 14 2021 Dry high pressure will prevail through much of the week before a cold front arrives over the weekend. The sfc pattern will feature ridging high pressure across eastern SC and GA with a broad trough near the coast. Temperatures appear on track to reach the low 40s inland to near 50 along the coast.
/EC/ Surface and upper high pressure ridging will prevail through Wednesday across the area.
353 PM CST Tue Dec 14 2021 Deep ridging will continue to be the main driver of our local weather through most of the short term. All that being said, will go ahead and include areas of fog in the forecast, but given the low confidence of any dense fog forming, will hold off on a dense fog advisory for the time being. Going into Wednesday afternoon, an upper trough currently located along the west coast will begin lifting northeastward through the plains states.
1259 AM EST Wed Dec 15 2021 Dry high pressure will prevail through much of the week before a cold front arrives over the weekend. The sfc pattern will feature ridging high pressure across eastern SC and GA with a broad trough near the coast. Temperatures appear on track to reach the low 40s inland to near 50 along the coast.
With these cooler temps, we could see some fog near area rivers and lakes. CD Chattanooga Airport, TN 62 48 65 56 70 / 0 0 0 20 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 62 45 66 55 71 / 0 0 10 30 20 Oak Ridge, TN 60 45 64 54 68 / 0 0 10 40 30 Tri Cities Airport, TN 62 37 63 49 67 / 0 0 0 30 30.
359 AM EST Wed Dec 15 2021 High pressure will build off the Mid-Atlantic coast through the week, with southerly flow and a warming trend expected.
141 AM EST Wed Dec 15 2021 U/L subtropical ridge will hold across the Gulf of Mexico and Florida peninsula the remainder of the week with above normal heights across the region. A northern stream S/W will push rapidly from the mid west to New England over the weekend and this will suppress the subtropical ridge over Florida. At the surface, high pressure along the mid Atlantic coast will hold over the region today.
359 AM EST Wed Dec 15 2021 Warm and windy conditions expected Wednesday ahead of a dynamic low pressure system.
An associated mid-latitude cyclone will quickly intensify (to ~985 mb) in the lee of the Rockies (invof the CO/NE/KS border) Wednesday morning. the sudden/rapid development and progressive nature of this cyclone -- and significant (albeit short-lived) weather associated with it -- is somewhat analogous to (or reminiscent of). A stray shower will be possible in the afternoon with a cold front which will shift winds to the northwest.
354 AM EST Wed Dec 15 2021 Mainly dry and warm weather continues today under high pressure.
/EC/ Prior discussion below: Surface and upper high pressure ridging will prevail through Wednesday across the area.
1251 AM EST Wed Dec 15 2021 Dry and warm weather continues today under high pressure.
TFJ An Arctic cold front was draped from far northwest Valley County to near Saco to the Little Rockies as of 2 PM MST. There could also be a little freezing rain before the midlevels cool enough for all snow, but any freezing rain should be very brief and light.
1250 AM EST Wed Dec 15 2021 High pressure will build over the region through the middle of the week, with dry conditions and gradually warming temperatures. The high will shifts further offshore late in the week and the developing southerly flow will cause temperatures to rise well above normal late in the week into the early weekend.
Post cold frontal passage snowfall is dissipating in the southern and eastern mountains early this morning but a second area of snow has developed from Arco east through Howe, Mud Lake and Monteview. A few tenths to up to an inch of snow may fall from this area as the upper trof moves through eastern Idaho and extend east to St Anthony, Rexburg, Ririe and Idaho Falls.
Tight gradient winds ahead of an approaching low pressure system will cause breezy conditions today along and west of the Mississippi River.
429 AM MST Wed Dec 15 2021 The longwave trough continues to sweep east across the Rockies currently. IR imagery shows the large plume of moisture sweeping in around the trough from the south, with snowfall continuing to increase across western WY. The cold front is beginning to sweep east across the state, with the colder temperatures starting to take hold across the western portion of the state. Overall snowfall accumulation forecast has not changed, with snow focusing on the higher elevations, while most lower elevations generally staying below 3 inches. As the initial trough sweeps east, flow will become more west- southwesterly as another trough drops down the Pacific Coast later Wednesday.
334 AM MST Wed Dec 15 2021 Chances for showers and higher elevation snow will end quickly this morning as a cold front exits the area.
A short wave moving across the Great Basin will bring a few light rain or snow showers across northern and western areas of the region Thursday before high pressure rebuilds over area and returns dry weather and cool temperatures to all areas for the end of the week and the weekend. Skies will continue to clear early this morning as high pressure builds in behind the trough that caused yesterdays rain and snow. Any snow accumulations are expected to be light, although the higher elevations of the Sierras may pick up a few inches.
Indications are that these low clouds will have a little easier time burning off during the day and should see a little more sun and thus a little warmer temperatures this afternoon. Highs above 80 across the Big Country where the low clouds will break up first.
Models continue to bring a strong upper level low across western Kansas today. High pressure builds in behind the aforementioned system with lee troughing developing across eastern Colorado Thursday.
645 AM EST Wed Dec 15 2021 Warm and windy conditions expected Wednesday ahead of a dynamic low pressure system.
248 AM MST Wed Dec 15 2021 A potent upper trough is currently pivoting through the western US this morning. At the surface, a surface front resides from SE MT into central ND with low pressure centered over central WY. As cyclogenesis occurs, the low-level wind field will strengthen in response.
458 AM EST Wed Dec 15 2021 A large anticyclone centered over the Northeast stretches southwest down the spine of the Appalachians.
/issued 141 AM EST Wed Dec 15 2021/ U/L subtropical ridge will hold across the Gulf of Mexico and Florida peninsula the remainder of the week with above normal heights across the region. A northern stream S/W will push rapidly from the mid west to New England over the weekend and this will suppress the subtropical ridge over Florida. At the surface, high pressure along the mid Atlantic coast will hold over the region today.
Warm and humid conditions continue across all of south central Texas early this morning with current temperature readings in the mid 60s to lower 70s and dewpoint temperatures in the lower 60s to lower 70s. Despite plenty of moisture in the low levels of the atmosphere, fog development will likely be hindered as winds should remain in the 10- 15 mph range across most areas. Warm and humid conditions persist tonight with lows in the lower 60s to near 70 for most areas. The above normal warmth continues into Thursday, with temperatures peaking in the lower 70s to mid 80s.
414 AM MST Wed Dec 15 2021 A potent upper trough is currently pivoting through the western US this morning. At the surface, a surface front resides from SE MT into central ND with low pressure centered over central WY. As cyclogenesis occurs, the low-level wind field will strengthen in response.
734 AM EST Wed Dec 15 2021 Mainly dry and warm weather continues today under high pressure. A cold front will bring widespread showers to the region Thursday afternoon and evening. Ridging will continue over the eastern CONUS today, keeping temperatures above normal. A warm front will rest just to the north of the region today. Dry air in the low levels, along with the lack of forcing, will keep most of the area rain free. After a quiet night, better rain chances arrive later on Thursday, ahead of an approaching cold front.
229 AM MST Wed Dec 15 2021 The longwave trough continues to sweep east across the Rockies currently. IR imagery shows the large plume of moisture sweeping in around the trough from the south, with snowfall continuing to increase across western WY. The cold front is beginning to sweep east across the state, with the colder temperatures starting to take hold across the western portion of the state. Overall snowfall accumulation forecast has not changed, with snow focusing on the higher elevations, while most lower elevations generally staying below 3 inches. As the initial trough sweeps east, flow will become more west- southwesterly as another trough drops down the Pacific Coast later Wednesday.
We're looking at chilly but fair weather as a weak trough and cold air pool will remain over the state.
After a warm advective, light shower chance today and much of tonight, the cold front nears the northwest corridor of our FA by 12Z Thursday. And then we see 200-400 J/KG of MUCAPE in the lower 1KM, coincident with a nose of 60F or almost 60F dew points ridging in, that rides along/ahead of the boundary upon its southeast dive across the area during the day Thursday.
240 AM PST Wed Dec 15 2021 Cooler weather will prevail this coming week with patchy frost in the valleys most nights. A weak low pressure system will bring a small chance of light showers near the coast late Thursday.
221 PM EST Wed Dec 15 2021 Strong mid level ridging extends northeastward from the western Gulf of Mexico along the eastern seaboard. This ridging shifts eastward and flattens out through the week and into the weekend. The surface reflection is a 1038 MB high pressure center off the New England coast and broad surface ridging extending southwest along the east coast and into the Gulf of Mexico.
Winds will remain damaging through at least 2 pm this afternoon, and will stay strong through sunset, after which will rapidly diminish to aob 20 mph by 9 pm this evening as the primary cold front associated with this system moves south through our area. Overnight, north winds behind the aforementioned cold front will transport cold air into southwest KS, and lows will drop into the mid teens in our northwest zones to upper 20s in our southeast zones. High pressure builds in behind the aforementioned system with lee troughing developing across eastern Colorado Thursday.
1041 AM EST Wed Dec 15 2021 Some very light rain is possible into the afternoon, especially west and north of Pittsburgh, thanks to a warm front. A cold front will bring widespread showers to the region Thursday afternoon and evening. After a quiet night, better rain chances arrive later on Thursday, ahead of an approaching cold front.
Today/Tonight: Unseasonably warm conditions continue, with temperatures this afternoon in the lower to middle 70s across the area. The highest wind gusts will be across the northwest half of the CWA, with some locations reaching 65 mph over portions of far northwest Missouri. In this area, forecast sounding show extreme wind shear, especially in the lowest 1km, along with skinny but marginally sufficient instability for storm organization/persistence. There will be a window for areas of far NW MO to see the potential for enhanced wind gusts to 75 mph and isolated tornadoes with a broken line of storms along a dryline/cold front. Lastly, a short window during the late afternoon and early evening behind the passing cold front and associated narrow line of storms may allow for dangerous fire weather conditions to materialize across far northwest Missouri.
CD Chattanooga Airport, TN 61 47 65 56 70 / 0 0 10 10 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 62 44 65 54 70 / 0 0 10 20 20 Oak Ridge, TN 61 45 63 54 68 / 0 0 20 40 20 Tri Cities Airport, TN 62 37 63 47 67 / 0 0 10 30 20.
At the surface, stronger southerly flow will diminish overnight as the surface cyclone moves into portions of the Northern Plains. A pre- frontal trough/dryline is forecast to approach northeast Oklahoma this evening.
A cold front will drop south into the region tonight, making it to near the OH River by around noon on Thursday. Many locations, except for possibly our extreme southern counties, should see a break in the precip Thu night, as the cold front moves farther south into TN and becomes nearly stationary in the swly flow aloft.
1132 AM EST Wed Dec 15 2021 Warm and windy conditions expected Wednesday ahead of a dynamic low pressure system.
255 PM CST Wed Dec 15 2021 Tonight through Thursday: Surface and upper high pressure ridging will prevail tonight into Thursday across the area. Lows tonight will range from the low 50s in the east to low 60s in the west. Expect most of the area to remain dry though, as surface ridging continues to prevail.
Lee cyclogenesis has rapidly increased as the surface cyclone moves out of Colorado and into Nebraska and Kansas this afternoon. As the low pressure center and associated dryline approaches the area the pressure gradient will tighten significantly across the area. Strong decent on the back of the low resulting in a sting jet setup mean that gusts of 80+ mph are possible in pockets across the state. Beyond today, much cooler air filters in behind the low with highs in the 30s to low 40s through the end of the week.
KBYX radar has been somewhat unexpectedly quiet for much of today, with only a few showers being detected in the Straits of Florida 20 to 60 nm to the southwest of the Lower Keys. High pressure over the eastern third of the CONUS will continue to dominate the synoptic pattern. With the associated ridge axis displaced far north of the CWA, a relatively tight pressure gradient will be retained for the rest of the work week.
For the Florida Keys, the aforementioned ridge will continue to dictate our weather this afternoon. From synopsis, high pressure over the Eastern Seaboard and the Western North Atlantic will support fresh to strong northeast to east breezes for the next several days.
220 PM CST Wed Dec 15 2021 Changes setting up over the next 24 to 48 hours as weak upper ridging and SFC/LL high pressure slowly break down. This will allow a cold front to move down across our northwest corner late Thursday afternoon.
Additionally, with mostly cyclonic flow aloft to our west and a short wave trough to our north quickly moving to the northeast, surface winds have remained backed more than what was expected. A cold front is expected to move through the area this evening into to tonight, bringing northerly winds and cooler temperatures. With the front not making it through the southeastern Rolling Plains until near daylight, lows will only fall into the low to mid-40s there. Mid- level highs will continue to fall slightly tomorrow, and surface winds will be slow to become southeasterly, resulting in temperatures warming into the low 60s.
1100 AM MST Wed Dec 15 2021 The longwave trough continues to sweep east across the Rockies currently. IR imagery shows the large plume of moisture sweeping in around the trough from the south, with snowfall continuing to increase across western WY. The cold front is beginning to sweep east across the state, with the colder temperatures starting to take hold across the western portion of the state. Overall snowfall accumulation forecast has not changed, with snow focusing on the higher elevations, while most lower elevations generally staying below 3 inches. As the initial trough sweeps east, flow will become more west- southwesterly as another trough drops down the Pacific Coast later Wednesday.
Deep layer west-southwest flow will persist on Thursday as an upper ridge remains in place across the Gulf of Mexico.
150 PM EST Wed Dec 15 2021 High pressure will maintain control over the Mid Atlantic, bringing dry conditions through Thursday.
The potent storm system and cold front have passed well east of the state this afternoon, with below normal afternoon temperatures in its wake. Thursday - the next weakening trough passes through the region with precipitation staying north of Arizona. It will be 5-10 degrees warmer Thursday afternoon.
1013 AM EST Wed Dec 15 2021 Some very light rain is possible into the afternoon, especially west and north of Pittsburgh, thanks to a warm front. A cold front will bring widespread showers to the region Thursday afternoon and evening. After a quiet night, better rain chances arrive later on Thursday, ahead of an approaching cold front.
The fog should mix out as a line of convection moves across the area during the middle and late evening hours ahead of a strong cold front.
SR Chattanooga Airport, TN 47 65 56 70 59 / 0 0 10 10 50 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 44 65 54 70 58 / 0 10 20 20 40 Oak Ridge, TN 45 63 54 68 58 / 0 10 40 20 50 Tri Cities Airport, TN 37 63 47 67 52 / 0 0 30 20 20.
128 PM EST Wed Dec 15 2021 High pressure gradually shifts offshore during the next few days resulting in the development of a warm and moist southerly flow.
Light snow showers ahead of the approaching trough this morning across the area will bring a dusting to quarter of inch of snowfall. Increasing southeasterly winds could delay the onset of precipitation an hour or two in the lower valleys but expect snow to begin around 6 PM MST. Current forecast and headlines have this covered though will consider expanding the Winter Weather Advisory into the Lower Treasure Valley in the afternoon package.
Until then, robust southerly surface flow will maintain Gulf moisture and dew points in the low-to-mid 60s for another mild night tonight as near-record high minimum temperatures are expected in the mid-to-upper 60s. Mostly cloudy skies and near-record high temperatures are expected, ranging from the upper 70s to the lower-80s. One more mild night is expected across the Ark-La-Tex with some damp soils and rain-cooled air moderating low temperatures into the low-to-mid 60s and away from record warmth.
POPs were adjusted to move the higher rain chances slightly north toward the Cape/Volusia and away from Martin county although isolated to scattered activity is still possible for the Treasure Coast.
1010 AM EST Wed Dec 15 2021 High pressure continues to ridge southwest along the east coast and into the Gulf of Mexico. The low clouds and fog were limited this morning and have lifted giving way to mostly sunny skies for most of the region. High pressure ridging into the Gulf of Mexico will keep a predominant east-northeast wind flow over the gulf waters through the week.
221 PM MST Wed Dec 15 2021 The vigorous upper level trough that passed overhead last night is over the Central Plains now. In the wake of that system, we have moderately strong westerly flow and lingering moisture flowing upslope and producing scattered to numerous snow showers over the higher terrain of western Colorado this afternoon. Quick on the heels of our departing system is a weak ripple over northern UT and another upper level trough currently coming onshore over the Pac NW.
Rapid lee cyclogenesis and subsequent motion of a powerful cyclone across the cntrl Plains thru the day has supported an impressive tightening of the pressure gradient across the region and analyzed pressure rise/fall couplet of +/- 6 mb/3 hr or greater on either side of the low. Snow should exit the area rapidly in the 00-03z time frame as parent cyclone races ewd toward the Great Lakes. Modest return flow develops tomorrow as sfc ridging builds over the nrn Plains and another lee trof develops east of the Rockies. Weak thermal ridging tries to follow, though above 0C 850 mb temps do not progress far into SD.
750 PM EST Wed Dec 15 2021 An approaching cold front will bring showers Thursday afternoon and evening.
548 PM CST Wed Dec 15 2021 (This evening through Thursday) A very deep surface cyclone was centered over Nebraska this afternoon, with a dry line extending south across Kansas to near the 100th Meridian. The cyclone will advance quickly to the northeast this evening, and the dry line will move about halfway across our forecast area (roughly along I-44) before the cold front arrives Thursday morning, and shoves the very warm and moist airmass farther to the south, finally exiting our forecast area Thursday afternoon (but it returns shortly afterward). A strong capping inversion this afternoon is forecast to dissipate this evening, allowing convection to occur along the dry line and cold front as they move into the eastern half of Oklahoma.
A strong cold front just moved through a North Platte through Bassett line. The High Wind Warning is scheduled to expire at 03Z. The upper low lifts into the northern Great Lakes by daybreak, as an upstream trough digs across the Pacific Northwest.
Gusty winds are expected tomorrow afternoon along the Sierra ridge line and in western San Bernardino County, but these winds are not unlikely to meet criteria for wind product issuance.