Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
IT WILL BE ABOUT 10-20 DEGREES COOLER ACROSS THE CWA COMPARED TO YESTERDAY, WITH TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO GET MUCH HIGHER THAN THE UPPER 60S IN THE INLAND VALLEYS WEST OF THE CASCADES. LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE WATERS WILL PRODUCE NUMEROUS SHOWERS TODAY WHILE SEAS AND SOUTHERLY WINDS REMAIN LIGHT.
Isolated late afternoon and evening thunderstorms are possible across the higher elevations of southeast New Mexico. /ISSUED 317 AM CDT Mon Jun 1 2015/ An upper level ridge will be the main weather feature through the upcoming week, and will result in above normal temperatures and only minimal rain chances throughout. The said ridge is centered over northern Mexico, but will gradually spread eastward as another upper trough drops south along the west coast. The flow aloft will be favorable for convection to move off the higher terrain and spread into the southeast New Mexico Plains tonight.
A TROUGH IS EXPECTED LATER THIS WEEK WHICH COULD BRING SOME DRIZZLE WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS. AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LOS ANGELES COUNTY MOUNTAINS DUE TO REMNANTS OF HURRICANE ANDRES GETTING PULLED IN WITH THE TROUGH. JUNE GLOOM IN FULL EFFECT THIS WEEK WITH TROUGHING ALONG THE WEST COAST AND MODERATE TO STRONG ONSHORE FLOW.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS NORTHERN UTAH TONIGHT. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT BETWEEN 02Z AND 04Z.
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 79 64 81 63 / 70 40 30 20 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 79 63 79 62 / 70 50 30 20 OAK RIDGE, TN 78 62 79 62 / 80 50 30 20 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 79 60 76 60 / 80 60 40 30.
STILL LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE LOWER AND MID 70S WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS. MAV/MET BOTH LOOK REASONABLE WITH AFTN HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 70S.
522 AM MDT MON JUN 1 2015 WEAK WAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST INTO THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO SPARK SHOWERS THIS MORNING. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT EAST OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY TUESDAY. FINER DETAILS INCLUDE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTING EAST INTO THE PLAINS. ALLOWING WARMER AND DRIER SOUTHWEST FLOW TO TAKE HOLD.
659 AM PDT MON JUN 1 2015 Thunderstorm chances will increase markedly today and Tuesday as a strong upper level trough moves in from the south. Unsettled and cooler weather will persist into the remainder of the work week with a threat of showers and thunderstorms each day. Storms are expected to increase in coverage this afternoon, but the threat is also expected to continue into tonight as the upper level trough progress northward slowly over the region.
THE MID LEVEL RIDGE IN PLACE SHOULD PRECLUDE HIGHER COVERAGE OF CONVECTION. OTHERWISE TEMPERATURES STILL APPEAR TO BE ON TRACK TO REACH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S LATER THIS AFTERNOON. 30 /ISSUED 1116 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015/ AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM SOUTHEASTERN MISSOURI INTO WESTERN LOUISIANA MOVES EAST. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN YESTERDAY BUT STILL SHOULD ONLY TOP OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.
CENTRAL ALABAMA WILL ONCE AGAIN BE ON THE MOIST AND UNSTABLE SIDE OF A CLOSED UPPER LOW LOCATED NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. 05/MA /ISSUED 631 AM CDT MON JUN 1 2015/ UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW CAN BE SEEN SPINNING OVER EASTERN ARKANSAS THIS MORNING ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE ITS SLOW TRACK EASTWARD THROUGH MID WEEK. LEAVING THE POSSIBILITY OF ABOVE NORMAL RAIN CHANCES ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE LOW.
1108 AM EDT MON JUN 1 2015 UNSEASONABLY CHILLY TEMPERATURES WITH DRIZZLE AND FOG WILL LINGER THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE GRADUALLY TRACKS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES.
TODAY'S WEATHER WILL BE DOMINATED BY AN UNSEASONABLY COOL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED IN ONTARIO CANADA. CHILLY NORTHEAST FLOW FROM THE HIGH WILL KEEP HIGHS BELOW NORMAL FOR ANOTHER DAY. BUT THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION AND SATURATED LOW LEVELS WILL MAKE IT DIFFICULT TO SCOUR OUT THE CLOUDS TODAY. PROMINENT UPPER LOW DRIFTING ACROSS NORTHERN ARKANSAS WILL MAKE IT TO MIDDLE TENNESSEE BEFORE BECOMING STATIONARY FOR A FEW DAYS. WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. IT WILL SUPPRESS ANY PRECIPITATION FROM THIS LOW FROM MAKING IT THIS FAR TO THE NORTHWEST. THE HIGH WILL OOZE EASTWARD DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
143 PM EDT FRI MAY 15 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL MOVE SOUTH OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
630 PM EDT FRI MAY 15 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL MOVE SOUTH AND EAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
INTENSITY AND TIMING OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT 2 DAYS AS LARGE TROUGH TO THE WEST KEEPS CWA IN ACTIVE PATTERN THROUGH SATURDAY. WEAK TROUGH/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY NOTED FROM ROUGHLY ATWOOD TO HYS WITH AREA OF FAIRLY FLAT CU FORMING ALONG IT. CONVECTIVE INITIATION AND RESULTING MOVEMENT IS INITIAL CONCERN AS BOTH DRYLINE/TROUGH WILL BE POSSIBLE AREAS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. WITH BULK OF CAM MODELS SUGGESTING EASTERN COLORADO IN VICINITY OF TROUGH BEING MOST LIKELY AREA. LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS AS STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH DESTABILIZES THINGS FAIRLY QUICKLY. THINK LARGE SCALE FORCING AND LARGE SCALE DESTABILIZATION DUE TO TROUGH WILL PROMOTE AN EARLIER INITIATION OF CONVECTION THAN RECENT DAYS.
A WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIRMASS WILL MOVE IN FOR THIS WEEKEND WITH A CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MODELS CONT TO PROG THE WARM FRONT TO DEVELOP FM WRN NEB TO ALONG THE KS/NEB BORDER LATE THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE WIND FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH SPREADS EWD THESE SHOULD ADVANCE FAIRLY RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE NIGHT.
343 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2015 LARGE SCALE TROUGHING ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS WILL KEEP THE WEATHER PATTERN ACTIVE THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ESPECIALLY ALONG A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS FROM ARTHUR COUNTY. AS THE LONG WAVE TROUGH EMERGES ONTO THE PLAINS. SO SOME TRAINING OF THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR ALONG THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR INTO THE EARLY EVENING BEFORE THE FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE EAST. WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOWLY SLIDING EAST ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT.
AS SEVERAL OF THE HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS PRETTY MUCH DRY THINGS OUT ALTHOUGH THE HRRR TRIES TO BRING ANOTHER LOBE THROUGH LATE EVENING. - KCHI 150802 WRKAFD MORNING UPPER AIR AND MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY SHOWS CLOSED UPPER LOW IN ROCKIES WITH A MAIN VORT LOBE IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS, ADVECTIVING DEEP MOISTURE PLUME NORTHWARD FROM TX INTO THE CENTRAL MIDWEST.
FOR THE LOW TEMPERATURES HAVE KEPT LOWS MOSTLY MID 60S WITH CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS AND HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT IN ATMOSPHERE. CONTINUE TO EXPECT PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO INCREASE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE LOW WORKS ITS WAY NORTHEAST THROUGH THE PLAINS STATES.
GULF MOISTURE IS STILL EXPECTED TO INCREASE FROM THE SW AS EVERYTHING ROTATES AROUND THE BERMUDA LIKE RIDGE SETTING UP JUST OFF SHORE THE CAROLINA COAST. DIFFICULT TO NAIL DOWN JUST HOW HIGH POPS SHOULD BE AS MID AND UPPER LEVEL FEATURES ARE MUCH LESS FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT STORM DEVELOPMENT WITH THE PRESENCE OF A CLOSED 700 MB HIGH AND CONTINUED RIDGE ALOFT AT 500 MB.
124 PM EDT FRI MAY 15 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL MOVE SOUTH OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
/ISSUED 638 AM CDT FRI MAY 15 2015/ (TODAY AND TONIGHT) AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE HAS MOVED INTO THE AREA. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW 80S WITH LOWS IN THE MID 60S.
AND SATURDAY THE UPPER TROUGH THAT BROUGHT US SHOWERS OVERNIGHT WILL EXIT THE REGION AROUND DAYBREAK THOUGH A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES MAY LINGER THROUGH MIDDAY. WEAK UPPER RIDGING ARRIVES IN THE AFTERNOON BUT NOT SURE IF THERE WILL BE MUCH SUN AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY BE STUCK UNDER A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. SKIES MAY BEGIN TO CLEAR THIS EVENING THOUGH IF THEY DO LOW CLOUDS OR FOG MAY FORM DUE TO THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING. SATURDAY SHOULD BE PARTLY SUNNY AND WARMER AS A WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH ACROSS THE REGION WELL AHEAD OF SYNOPTIC SCALE SYSTEM OVER THE PLAINS STATES.
650 PM EDT FRI MAY 15 2015 A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH OF LAKE ERIE BECOMING QUASI STATIONARY TONIGHT.
118 PM PDT FRI MAY 15 2015 A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL AFFECT THE REGION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE BIG LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER NEVADA WITH TWO DISTINCT CENTERS OF VORTICITY, ONE OVER THE SAN DIEGO AREA AND THE OTHER OVER NORTHWEST NEVADA. MEANWHILE OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA, SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE SOCAL LOW IS INHIBITING CONVECTION OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. THIS WEEKEND, MODELS SHIFT THE LOW TO THE EAST AND BUILD IN A WEAK RIDGE.
GENERALLY SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES AS THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES SOUTHWESTERN WYOMING. SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY A LARGE COOL AND MOIST LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL WYOMING SATURDAY NIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES EAST.
ALSO MAY SEE A BIT COOLER MAX TEMPS ACROSS THE NORTH WITH SOME ADDED IN CIRRUS FROM A FEW POP UP THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE ROCKIES WILL LIFT TO THE NORTH NORTHEAST TODAY COLORADO INTO NORTH DAKOTA. A WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE LOW WILL LIFT ACROSS IOWA FROM THE SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING REACHING A STORM LAKE TO CHARITON LINE BY LATE AFTERNOON. WE WILL BE CONSIDERABLY WARMER TODAY WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S. WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD FROM IOWA INTO MINNESOTA OVERNIGHT AS SOUTHERLY FLOW DEEPENS ACROSS THE STATE.
A LARGE AREA OF MOISTURE EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL MEXICO TO THE EASTERN GULF, MOVING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST LOCATED AHEAD OF A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE WEST AND THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH OVER FLORIDA.
1106 AM MDT FRI MAY 15 2015 THE SURFACE COLD FRONT IS STALLED FROM N TO S OVER CENTRAL UTAH EARLY THIS MORNING. THE MAIN TROUGH AND SPLITTING LOW IS STILL WELL TO WEST OF HERE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CLEARLY SHOWS THE JET ROUNDING THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH OVER NORTHERN BAJA. BUT HELP PULL THE COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR CWA LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. THE COLD FRONT WILL HELP AID THUNDERSTORMS AND AREAS OF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION AS IT PUSHES EAST AS WELL.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NEVADA WILL APPROACH SOUTHWEST MONTANA TONIGHT AND WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD NORTH ACROSS SOUTHWEST MONTANA INTO THE NORTHERN TIER BY MORNING. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA WILL SLOWLY MOVE TOWARDS SOUTHWEST MONTANA.
310 PM EDT FRI MAY 15 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO THE EAST TONIGHT.
THERE ARE FINALLY SOME BREAKS DEVELOPING IN THE CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR ALOFT SPREADS INTO THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH. EXPECT THE LOW CLOUDS TO SCATTER OUT TOWARD SUNSET.
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT CURRENT SURFACE MAP SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE INTO NORTH DAKOTA. LARGE UPPER TROF LOCATED ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. AS JET STREAK ROTATES AROUND UPPER TROF THIS MORNING. AS UPPER TROF/LOW LIFTS ACROSS THE ROCKIES ON SATURDAY.
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM RESPONSIBLE FOR THE COOLER AND SHOWERY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES DECREASING THROUGH THE DAY. DRIER AND SLIGHTLY WARMER WEATHER WILL MOVE IN FOR THE WEEKEND. THE SECOND PIECE OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS NOW MOVING INTO THE SAN DIEGO AREA. BUT WITH CLOUDS FILLING IN ON THE LOW'S WRAPAROUND THROUGH SLO COUNTY.
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS INTO SATURDAY. BROAD UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE WRN CONUS. A SERIES OF IMPULSES WILL ROTATE AROUND THE SRN PERIPHERY OF THIS TROUGH AND ACROSS SE ARIZONA INTO SAT. WITH A MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING SWD INTO SRN ARIZONA. THE UPPER LOW WILL ADVANCE NEWD INTO NRN WYOMING/SRN MONTANA BY SAT EVENING. WITH THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WELL EAST OF THE AREA INTO FAR ERN NEW MEXICO. THE NEXT DEEP UPPER TROUGH IS THEN DEPICTED VIA THE GFS/ECMWF/CMC TO BE OVER THE GREAT BASIN MON NIGHT. WITH A MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING SEWD INTO SE ARIZONA.
239 PM PDT Fri May 15 2015 Variable clouds and mainly mountain showers or thunderstorms through the coming week as a series of weak low pressure systems move across California. Upper low will shift east into the Great basin region on Saturday with drying conditions for the valley.
A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED WEATHER DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
MAINLY ALONG THE HIGHWAY 77 CORRIDOR SOUTH OF GIDDINGS. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO NEW MEXICO AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. THE MODELS TEND TO FAVOR THE HIGHWAY 281 CORRIDOR WHERE PERHAPS SOME WEAK LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS EXPECTED.
SATURDAY REGION WILL BE UNDER A DIRTY RIDGE ALOFT WITH DEEP MOISTURE INCREASING.
236 PM EDT FRI MAY 15 2015 A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
525 PM EDT FRI MAY 15 2015 A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
INSERTED -TSRA AT ALL THREE TERMINALS GIVEN SOMEWHAT HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CONVECTION DEVELOPING THIS EVENING AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW EDGES CLOSER TO THE AREA AND THE DRYLINE RETREATS. THE NEXT STRONG UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW WILL IMPACT THE TX AND OK PNHDLS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL LOW ALONG WITH DIFFLUENT FLOW. AND THE CORRESPONDING PACIFIC COLD FRONT TO RESULT IN ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. POPS WERE CONFINED TO ERN ZONES AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW EJECTS NEWD ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THE PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL MERGE WITH THE DRYLINE AND SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION.
DESPITE DEEP LAYERED RIDGING ALOFT. AND ALONG ISLAND CLOUD LINES WEST OF THE LOWER KEYS. FORECAST - THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN RELATIVELY STEADY STRENGTH AS IT CONSOLIDATES NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS.
304 PM EDT FRI MAY 15 2015 A WARM FRONT OVER OHIO AND WEST VIRGINIA THIS AFTERNOON WILL DRIFT NORTH INTO PENNSYLVANIA LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT.
Evening convective activity will transition to more of a stratiform rain by early Saturday as a low pressure system wraps up across southern Idaho and northwest Wyoming.
AS SOME WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES MOVE ACROSS WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL RIDGING INFLUENCES FROM THE SW TO NE ACROSS THE MID STATE. IT WAS A MUGGY MORNING ACROSS MID TN WITH TEMPS IN THE 70S AND DEW POINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. HIGHS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 80S. SURFACE MAP THIS MORNING SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST WITH A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND A STORM SYSTEM BREWING OVER THE WESTERN U. LOOK FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP TODAY AS ADDITIONAL MOISTURE ADVECTS INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND A WEAK TROUGH PROVIDES SOME FOCUS.
ALTHOUGH IT LOOKS MORE AND MORE LIKE THE CLOUDS/STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL WIN OUT TODAY/TONIGHT AND ANY HAZARDOUS WEATHER WILL HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL LATER TONIGHT WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET. SATURATED LAYER IS RATHER THICK AND AREA WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT TODAY. AS THE LOW LEVEL JET INTENSIFIES OVERNIGHT. ALL MODELS ARE SHOWING THE WARM FRONT PUSHING NORTH ALL THE WAY INTO ND WITH BREEZY/GUSTY SOUTH WINDS DEVELOPING ALONG WITH WARMING TEMPS THROUGH THE 70S.
A WARM FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND AN ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS TODAY.
STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. RESULTING IN A CONTINUED PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL COMMENCE THIS WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS INTO THE AREA.
MEANWHILE THE NEXT MORE ROBUST UPPER LEVEL WAVE CURRENTLY OFF THE COASTLINE OF CALIFORNIA WILL ROTATE AROUND THE PARENT TROUGH AXIS AND EJECT EASTWARD FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO NEW MEXICO. THIS WOULD HAMPER DAYTIME HEATING AND RESULTANT INSTABILITY BUILD UP ACROSS THE AREA AND WITH COOLER 700MB TEMPERATURES THERE WONT BE MUCH OF A CAP ALOFT.
have capped pops in the high chc category for this afternoon/s activity. Overnight lows tonight will range in the lower to middle 60s. overall trough orientation to become negative with time with with lwr Missouri Vly remaining in the cross-hairs for large scale forced ascent.
349 PM EDT FRI MAY 15 2015 A WARM FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND AN ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, FOLLOWED BY SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS TONIGHT.
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN US THROUGH THE WEEKEND. -WSS TONIGHT: HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND WESTWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS FROM NEAR BERMUDA. -MWS DEEP LAYER RIDGING. WARMER YET. SUPPORTIVE OF TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S. WITH LOWS CENTERED IN THE LOWER 60S.
348 PM CDT Fri May 15 2015 (Tonight and Tomorrow) A large upper trough dominates the southwest CONUS this afternoon enhancing the southwest flow aloft over the forecast area. A Pacific front will push into southeastern New Mexico tonight ahead of the upper low. As the upper low moves east over the western Plains tomorrow afternoon the eastern moving Pacific front will merge with the dryline with the Pacific front/dryline pushing into our western CWA tomorrow afternoon. Through tomorrow afternoon the best chance of thunderstorms and associated heavy rainfall will be over the northern Big Country which will be closer to the upper low. Lows tonight will be in the upper 60s with highs tomorrow in the low to mid 80s. Models have been consistent in developing a line of convection along the dryline/Pacific cold front Saturday night.
WITH THE HIGH PW FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY RAIN IN THE HWO.
WITH THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNING EAST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY AND THE LOW LEVEL JET IN THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHWARD. WITH THE STRONGER SHEAR AND INSTABILITY COINCIDING WITH THE ARRIVAL OF DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS AND AN ATTENDANT WARM FRONT. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED TORNADO ALONG THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY MID/LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH MID EVENING. THERE IS A NOTABLE CONTRAST IN THE WAY AND TIMING OF BRINGING THE STRONG MAIN WAVE AND UPPER LOW TO AND ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN THE NAM AND GFS. IN ANY EVENT SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE AT A MINIMUM DURING THE DAY SATURDAY WITH THE WARM FRONT HAVING PASSED NORTH. BUT SOME MARGINAL COOLING BEHIND THE WARM FRONT SHOULD PREVENT ANY 80S.
240 PM EDT FRI MAY 15 2015 TRICKY POP FCST ON TAP WITH OVERALL NO DEFINITIVE FORCING MECHANISM ALOFT IN VERY MOIST ENVIRONMENT EAST OF A BROAD UPPER TROUGH AND WELL REMOVED FROM THE BEST DYNAMICS. DIFFICULT TO NAIL DOWN JUST HOW HIGH POPS SHOULD BE AS MID AND UPPER LEVEL FEATURES ARE MUCH LESS FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT STORM DEVELOPMENT WITH THE PRESENCE OF A CLOSED 700 MB HIGH AND CONTINUED RIDGE ALOFT AT 500 MB.
Unsettled Weather This Weekend Followed By Cooler Weather Again A weak impulse is currently moving across the Missouri Ozarks and lifting northeastward.
UPPER LOW WILL PUSH ONSHORE ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA EARLY THIS MORNING. ADVANCED THE START TIME OF WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS TO MIDDAY FOR THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS ALONG THE DIVIDE. A DEEP TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE ROCKIES THIS WEEKEND. WHERE SNOW TOTALS MAY APPROACH A FOOT AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
OVERVIEW: BROAD LONG WAVE RIDGING REMAINS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. BOUNDED BY TROUGHINESS OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST AND A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. POTENT SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS NOW IN THE PROCESS OF MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST/WESTERN GREAT LAKES. SEVERAL POCKETS OF SHOWERS ACCOMPANY THE TROUGH WITH ONE BATCH OF SHOWERS NOW IN THE PROCESS OF SPREADING INTO THE CWA. SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDING SHOWERS WILL ADVANCE THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING THROUGH MIDDAY BEFORE SHOWERS END W-E BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS MAY END AS DRIZZLE THIS AFTERNOON PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS SLOWLY REBOUND SATURDAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHED ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN.
534 PM EDT FRI MAY 15 2015 A WEAK WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT. THE WARM FRONT WILL STALL OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.
1254 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2015 FOR 18Z TAFS /ISSUED 1100 AM CDT FRI MAY 15 2015/ MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS IN PLACE THIS MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 70S AND FAIRLY MUGGY WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. WHICH IS TAPPING INTO DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S TO OUR SOUTH. THIS SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS DEVELOPED AS THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT WAS DOMINATING THE WEATHER PATTERN. SOME HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S SEEM POSSIBLE. A TROF LOCATED TO OUR WEST AND SLOWLY ADVANCING THIS WAY WILL PROVIDE FOCUS FOR SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT AMIDST AN INCREASINGLY HUMID/UNSTABLE AIRMASS THIS AFTN/EVENING.
1130 AM MDT FRI MAY 15 2015 UPPER LOW WILL PUSH ONSHORE ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA EARLY THIS MORNING. ADVANCED THE START TIME OF WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS TO MIDDAY FOR THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS ALONG THE DIVIDE. A DEEP TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE ROCKIES THIS WEEKEND. WHERE SNOW TOTALS MAY APPROACH A FOOT AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
A WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TODAY. RIDING TO THE NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT. ONCE THE RIDGE BUILDS IN. PARTICULARLY IF WE CAN RID THE AREA OF THE HIGHER CLOUDS MOVING OVER TOP OF THE STRENGTHENING RIDGE.
320 PM EDT FRI MAY 15 2015 A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH OF LAKE ERIE BECOMING QUASI STATIONARY TONIGHT.
TEMPS WILL BE NEAR TO ABOVE CLIMO UNDER STACKED RIDGING WITH HIGHS NEAR 80 ALONG THE COAST TO MID/UPPER 80S INLAND TOWARD I-75.
110 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2015 HIGH PRESSURE NOSING INTO NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA ALONG WITH A DRIER AIRMASS (CLEAR SKY). HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION TODAY.
425 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2015 LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO WORK ITS WAY OFF OF THE ROCKIES AND INTO NE COLORADO AND SW NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL BE THE MAIN DRIVER OF WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND. BUT IS MORE SO IN MISSOURI AND IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW INCREASES AND HELPS KEEP SHOWERS AND STORMS GOING AS DAYTIME HEATING AND INSTABILITY BEGINS TO WANE. THE HIGH-RES MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN IN GREAT AGREEMENT.
HEAVY CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES A BIT COOLER TODAY AND LIKELY REDUCE INSTABILITY KEEPING THUNDERSTORMS TO A MINIMUM. ALTHOUGH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO BRING CLOUDS AND SOME SHOWERS TO THE AREA AND TAF KBDN MAY APPROACH LCL MVFR CONDITIONS INTO THIS EVENING. AN UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA WILL MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH NEVADA TODAY. THE AREA TO SEE THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THE HIGHEST PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL BE WALLOWA COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
210 PM EDT FRI MAY 15 2015 A WEAK WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT. THE WARM FRONT WILL STALL OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.
450 PM MDT FRI MAY 15 2015 THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL VERY GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND CENTER ITS MAIN CORE OVER NORTHERN UTAH AT 500MB BY THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. ANOMALOUSLY STRONG CLOSED LOW EJECTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN SLOPE ON SATURDAY. POSSIBLY BECOME SLIGHTER HIGHER GIVEN SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR AND LOWER QPF RATES.
WE WILL SEE A BOOST IN THE LIFT FIELDS FROM A PACIFIC COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA OVERTAKING THE DRYLINE. THE PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL STALL OUT OVER THE ROLLING PLAINS TOMORROW LEAVING THE SOUTH PLAINS IN MUCH DRIER AIR. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGING OUT OVER THE ROCKIES ONTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SURFACE WINDS WILL GREATLY INCREASE WITH A DEEPENING SURFACE CYCLONE. VERY GOOD ALL-AROUND SOLUTION AGREEMENT THAT THE LARGE BLOCKING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE YUKON WITH UPPER TROUGHS SWINGING ON SHORE FROM THE SOUTHWEST PACIFIC COAST WILL CONTINUE. ONE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE DEPARTING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS LATE SATURDAY WITH STRONG DEEP VEERED AND DRY FLOW LIKELY STEERING THE BULK OF THUNDERSTORM CHANCES OFF TO OUR EAST BY SATURDAY EVENING.
352 PM MDT FRI MAY 15 2015 THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL VERY GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND CENTER ITS MAIN CORE OVER NORTHERN UTAH AT 500MB BY THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. ANOMALOUSLY STRONG CLOSED LOW EJECTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN SLOPE ON SATURDAY. POSSIBLY BECOME SLIGHTER HIGHER GIVEN SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR AND LOWER QPF RATES.