Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Weak high pressure will dominate tonight with some debris clouds from time to time. Thus with the extensive cloud cover earlier in the day, the high temps did end up being lower than originally forecasted and have lessened them a few degrees. The far east over the higher terrain will have the best chance. For Saturday, brief ridging nosing into eastern Kentucky should keep much of the area dry for Saturday with only a few showers and a storm or two popping over the high terrain during the afternoon.
Cold front with light showers as moved across much of the area. Dry condition expected overnight as an upper level ridge develops over the region. The ridge will remain in place through the weekend.
1050 PM MDT Fri Jun 16 2017 Upper level analysis shows weak ridging/nearly zonal flow over the northwestern portion of the CONUS, with a 90 kt jet moving over the northern plains.
Increasing areal coverage for rain showers and thunderstorms, especially during the day Saturday, along with a wind advisory far southwest ND Saturday are the highlights in the short term period. Low level convergence will also be enhanced as a cold front slides from southern Saskatchewan/Manitoba tonight, into central ND Saturday. Expect a much cooler day with highs in the 60s north to lower 70s far south.
/issued 315 PM CDT Fri Jun 16 2017/ SHORT TERM (Tonight through Saturday Night): A 500 hPa ridge anchored over North Central and Northwest Mexico will support short term subsidence and stability, as well as hot weather, over deep South Texas and the RGV. High temperatures Saturday will inch higher, ranging from the lower 90s near the coast to triple digits across portions of the Mid and Upper Valley.
A cold front will move through the area early in the work week bringing cooler and drier conditions. The question for the overnight is: Does the lower Susq get any rain. After the lower clouds and fog go away, diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms are expected for form again, especially across the southern half of the state.
/EC/ Through Saturday: Thunderstorms have been increasing in coverage over the northern half of the forecast area over the past few hours as lift from the combined MCV/disturbance aloft filters southeast into the Lower MS Valley.
Then blended to the higher pops during the day Saturday between 12-15z. Increasing areal coverage for rain showers and thunderstorms, especially during the day Saturday, along with a wind advisory far southwest ND Saturday are the highlights in the short term period. Low level convergence will also be enhanced as a cold front slides from southern Saskatchewan/Manitoba tonight, into central ND Saturday. Expect a much cooler day with highs in the 60s north to lower 70s far south.
752 PM EDT Fri Jun 16 2017 A weak cold front pushes southeast this evening bringing rain chances to an end.
a cold front looks to approach Northeast Oklahoma with the greater precip potential and wind shift just outside of this period.
500 mb low in far NW Ontario with upper flow around the low meeting up with the stronger westerly flow aloft from the Pacific eastward to ND.
545 PM MDT Fri Jun 16 2017 High pressure persists with zonal flow across the southwestern US. As a weak trough passes north of us in Montana, Wyoming, and the Dakotas on Saturday, the pressure gradient will tighten slightly and help to surface stronger wind gusts (20 to 30 mph) across NE Utah and NW Colorado.
Mvfr cloud decks to arrive into ne TX in low lvl sw flow by around 17/12z, and then quickly diminish with daytime mixing by 17/15-16z with mostly vfr skc as upper ridge increases over area. Upper ridge is suppressing any thought of convection across the remainder of our region attm. Not seeing much in the way of upstream disturbances embedded in northwest flow aloft as has been the case the last couple nights that could effect us late tonight or during the day Saturday so with a strengthening upper level ridge axis across our region, kept pops out of the forecast for Saturday.
the Bermuda Ridge axis will remain southeast of the region through Saturday.
FURTHEREST WEST SUPERCELL IN PLATTE COUNTY MAY STILL BE A CANDIDATE TO PRODUCE A TORNADO AS THERE IS AN INTERSECTION OF AN EAST WEST TROUGH AND NEAR A SURFACE MESOLOW.
Upper level ridge slowly building into the area Saturday with a drier westerly flow aloft. Expect partly to mostly sunny skies and warmer temperatures.
/issued 351 PM CDT Fri Jun 16 2017/ (Tonight and Saturday) Hot and dry conditions will prevail across the area through Saturday as an upper ridge of high pressure over northern Mexico dominates. The low level thermal ridge will strengthen even further on Saturday, with 850 mb temperatures around 35C across western sections. This will result in afternoon highs between 103 and 105 degrees across western sections and the lower 100s for the rest of the area, with heat indices between 103 and 106 degrees.
743 PM EDT Fri Jun 16 2017 A slow moving warm front will keep a chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms going this evening.
The MCS that moved through our forecast area last night really turned the troposphere over, leaving a warm, relatively dry pocket at around 925 mb and switching the lower tropospheric flow to a NW direction.
Trend of cooler temps continues in the high-res models behind the front and the current forecast for Saturday reflects that trend. Warm, dry, and breezy conditions will continue overnight ahead of a cold front that will push across Colorado Saturday afternoon. The wind speeds will diminish in most areas this evening, though the high mountains and east slopes may see stronger winds as the flow at mountain top level increases a bit. The front should push across during the afternoon, with cooler temperatures and more moisture behind the front.
Clouds will continue streaming in over northern sections tonight into Saturday, but as a ridge gradually builds, clouds will be forced north.
512 PM MDT Fri Jun 16 2017 Upper level analysis shows weak ridging/nearly zonal flow over the northwestern portion of the CONUS, with a 90 kt jet moving over the northern plains.
The high debris clouds will diminish but patchy stratus will be possible through sunrise. Temperatures will not stray far from current values in the low 70s. Prevailing flow will remain out of the W-SW with low level ridge axis to the south and mid/upper trough extending into the Gulf of Mexico. S-SW winds will gradually back to more S-SE as ridge axis lifts back north.
High pressure will be in place across the coastal waters through at least the weekend.
Greatest concern for tornado development is along surface warm front that extends from east-weest across Douglas county to northern Pottawattamie county. This low will most likely continue moving east northeast along the warm front. Any storm that develops in this favorable shear environment along the warm front has a high probability of becoming tornadic during the next couple of hours.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 68 90 71 89 / 10 20 20 50 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 66 88 70 88 / 10 20 10 40 Oak Ridge, TN 66 89 71 88 / 10 20 10 50 Tri Cities Airport, TN 65 86 66 87 / 30 40 20 50.
As of 19z the pesky upper low across southern Canada continues to rotate about its axis. The front is forecast to move southeast through the evening and into southeast Kansas as the upper level trough moves southeast into the Mississippi Valley.
1142 PM CDT Fri Jun 16 2017 At 2 PM, a short wave trough moving through northwest Wisconsin was producing scattered showers and storms across central and northern Wisconsin. Dew points will be in the mid and upper 50s north of the dry line and in the lower and mid 60s south of it. As temperatures climb into the lower to mid 80s this afternoon, the 0-1 km mean layer CAPES will climb into the 1500 to 2500 J/kg range south of the Interstate 94. This CAPE will be building ahead of an approaching short wave trough (currently located over western Minnesota). For Saturday afternoon and night, a stronger short wave and surface cold front will be moving through the region. In the wake of this system, a much cooler air mass will move into the region.
Raised PoPs for the evening and slowed the tapering back a bit overnight based on the high resolution guidance. Flow turns northwesterly and heights build on Saturday as heat builds over the southwest US helping develop a ridging trend over the western CONUS.
Surface cold front continues to push south and east of the region. A surface cold front extends from Ontario all the way down to the Gulf Coast states. This cold front has cleared the lower Ohio Valley region, and temperatures have been steadily falling through the morning and afternoon due to strong CAA behind the front.
Lows will be widespread in the teens overnight with single digits above and below zero in some of the high mountain valleys. Leadville will probably be a bit warmer tonight due to a slightly warmer airmass and possibly some higher level moisture moving in late. Everyplace else should be a few degrees warmer as well. However, the onset of the cooling will be later in the San Luis Valley and southwest mountains so those areas will actually see warmer temperatures than today.
This will keep temperatures similar to yesterday before a post frontal trough moves through the region late in the afternoon. Once the trough passes through, CAA will return.
322 AM CST Wed Dec 6 2017 Light snow across southwest North Dakota will continue to diminish this morning as high pressure moves in.
310 AM CST Wed Dec 6 2017 Water vapor and 500 mb analysis early this morning is indicative of a very wintry pattern over the north central CONUS with northerly flow across the area on the western periphery of a deep upper trough south of Hudson Bay. A broad upper trough will rotate southeastward through the day, and although lift is not particularly strong, with cyclonic flow and soundings indicating a relatively deep saturated snow growth zone, expect at least scattered snow shower/flurry development today into tonight which could amount to a light coating of a few tenths of an inch.
1259 AM EST Wed Dec 6 2017 A strong cold front crossing the forecast area early this morning will reach the coast around sunrise.
357 AM CST Wed Dec 6 2017 Split flow aloft is still evident on latest water vapor imagery with broad trough becoming well established over eastern CONUS, high amplitude ridge over west coast, and weak pos tilt trough over southern AZ.
252 AM EST Wed Dec 6 2017 Deep and vertically stacked low pressure will move across James Bay today, but broad cyclonic circulation extends well into the Ohio and Mississippi Valleys.
1157 PM CST Tue Dec 5 2017 The upper air pattern continues to transition such that a deep trough will be located over the eastern CONUS. The first of several embedded disturbances will rotate across the area tonight within the developing longwave trough over the eastern half of the CONUS.
143 AM MST Wed Dec 6 2017 Overview: A highly amplified synoptic pattern will prevail through the short term period, characterized by pronounced ridging along the Pacific coast and deep/broad troughing over the eastern half of the CONUS. NW flow aloft will prevail over the High Plains and CO Front Range through the day Wed. At the start of the period, an upper trough dominates the eastern half of the CONUS with high amplified ridging building into the west. This ridge slowly spreads eastward over the weekend and raises temperatures.
459 AM EST Wed Dec 6 2017 Today through the end of the week will trend cooler as a front clears the area and moves to the east.
Unusually strong high pressure centered to our northeast will continue to bring northeast winds across much of the coastal waters area tonight through Wednesday.
Strong high pressure centered to the west of Utah will maintain a stable northerly flow across the Great Basin through the end of the week. Pattern for the next several days will remain static with the high amplitude upper ridge along the west coast. East of the ridge the northerly flow originating out of northwest Canada will dive south into the central CONUS and interior west.
A low pressure system will bring scattered light showers or sprinkles through early Wednesday, mainly east of Tucson.
1032 PM CST Tue Dec 5 2017 Additional light snowfall is expected this evening and overnight for much of the area as a weak vorticity maximum rotates around the large upper-level trough centered over the Great Lakes and eastern U. Wednesday will be another breezy and cool day, with temperatures a few degrees cooler than Tuesday. The overall weather pattern will change little over the next 7 days, with a massive upper level trough over the eastern CONUS and an amplified ridge over the West Coast.
We continue to see a deep mid level trof over the east 1/2 of the nation at the beginning of the period.
The flow was highly amplified with a ridge along the W coast and a trof over the cntrl USA. This trof will cont diving S and cross the CWA late tonight and Wed AM. Temps will reach the low 40s. then warmer than normal Sat-Tue.
1036 PM MST Tue Dec 5 2017 Broad upper trough is persisting across the eastern half of the CONUS while upper ridging/Rex blocking pattern has set up over the western CONUS and Pacific Coast. Next upper wave near the MT/Canadian border will swing through late tonight bringing a reinforcing cold front to the area. A slight eastward shift of the upper ridge will bring warmer temperatures to the region with highs reaching into the 50s by the end of the week.
Temperatures were running a few degrees cooler than current forecast so have dialed the forecast down a few more to fit the trends and short term guidance.
The HiRes W-NMM and soundings show the high wind continuing for the rest of the night across northern Johnson County especially north of Buffalo. The lower elevations look to remain dry through at least sunrise. A very large high pressure ridge along the west coast extending north well above the Arctic Circle will produce cool dry northerly flow over western and central Wyoming through the week with gradual warming.
Temperatures will remain below normal today with highs in the lower 50s.
A reinforcing cold front is then on track to move through the state this evening/into the overnight, with little changes in the weather expected other than a continuation/slight increase in clouds across the SE portion of the CWA. This is supported by continued strong longwave troughing across the eastern conus, giving an alleyway from which cold Canadian/Arctic air can flow southward and into the Ohio Valley.
High pressure dominates the areas weather with dry conditions for the next few days. For tonight the clear skies and calm winds will allow for good radiational cooling and overnight low temps will fall into the 20s with teens in the higher elevations. Meanwhile patchy freezing fog is likely around the Boardman and Hermiston areas that could expand even more tonight and possibly into the tri cities area. kpsc and kdls could experience lcl mvfr ceilings and reduced vsby in patchy freezing fog between 10z and 16z.
1128 PM CST Tue Dec 5 2017 Cold air advection continuing across the region this afternoon following yesterday's cold frontal passage. The bigger story will arrive Wednesday night when a secondary shot of cold air surges south over the lower Missouri Valley following the passage of a reinforcing cold front.
Dry and seasonably chilly weather will prevail today ahead of an reinforcing cold front.
302 AM EST Wed Dec 6 2017 A strong cold front will cross the area this morning.
This may also be reflected in a southward moving cold front that will re enforce the modified arctic air mass currently in place. If any precipitation is able to form it will encounter relatively dry surface air and temps in the lower 40s so would expect the main precip type to be sprinkles. By late week, the strong mid-level trough will still be stretched across the eastern U.
1112 PM CST Tue Dec 5 2017 The short term concern is cloud/flurry trend into the evening and then timing of the next short wave trough dropping south over the area Wednesday. Clouds and flurries remain over the eastern cwa this afternoon as the cold trough exits to the east. Will develop some lower end PoPs to the northeast and spread those west and south into Wednesday as the next trough moves south. The longer term trends remain on the cool side with the north/northwest flow continuing with the eastern CONUS trough in control. Periodic cold fronts will drop south in the flow pattern every 24 hours or so with small end chances for some light snow/flurries.
Subjective 00Z upper-air analysis indicates a stacked low centered in northern ON, with the trough extending from the northern Rockies to the mid-Atlantic, and with a southwestern US weak upper low that was largely cut off from the main flow. An upper-level ridge was centered off the coast of OR/northern CA.
310 AM CST Wed Dec 6 2017 A filling mid level low was located across the desert SW within a dampening mid level trof axis. East of the trof axis zonal flow has tapped into a fetch of Pacific mstr while an embedded 3h jet of 100-110kt moves across the area this morning. Meanwhile at the surface an anticyclone will be in place across the PB today. Mid/upper level lift with Pacific mstr is enough to generate -RA this morning which will serve to moisten up/cool the low levels (which were very dry as of this writing). To further complicate the forecast there will be a shrtwv trof in the nw flow moving thru the 4 Corners region around 06Z/Thur which will renew lift/mstr and potential for SN thru the day on Thur, especially across the mtns.
Cold front to our east now and taking lower clouds along with it.
The most impactful item of note for today is the continuation of the Winter Weather Advisory for Iron county due to a period of prolonged lake effect snow, especially along the higher elevations of the Gogebic Range. We remain in the tight pressure gradient of this low, leading to the gusty northwest winds, which should persist through the day today. The meso-models were indicating a prolonged period of snow over this area due to the gravity wave this morning and afternoon, so increased QPF/PoPs to account for the higher confidence.
327 AM EST Wed Dec 6 2017 A strong cold front slowly crossing the forecast will reach the coast by late morning.
As a ridge of high pressure across the western United States continues to build, the pressure gradient across the area will remain fairly tight. Tomorrow will be drier and warmer across the area.
Northerly flow aloft will continue today as high pressure builds into the forecast area. High pressure builds into the area tonight with diminishing winds. Mid and high level moisture spilling over the ridge will bring some mid and highs clouds over the area.
Gusty northerly winds will develop across the northeast plains in the wake of a cold front that will push through the Denver area around 16z. There will be enough moisture to produce some light snow showers over the higher north facing mountain slopes. Tonight, a strong northerly flow aloft can be expected as stronger upper level ridge amplifies along the west coast. In the mountains, isolated to scattered light snow showers possible over the higher north facing aspects along with windy conditions above timberline. High amplitude ridge over western North America and a trough over the east part of the continent will continue to produce a north to northwest flow aloft over Colorado.
323 AM CST Wed Dec 6 2017 700mb trough lagging behind surface boundary allowing for southwest flow in lower-levels to overrun cold airmass across the ArkLaTex.
On the large scale, a long-wave ridge has shifted farther eastward, along with the associated lower-tropospheric anticyclone. Deep cyclonic flow has developed across much of the northern and central United States in association with long-wave trough amplification.
Our warmer weather is gone and it looks like the cold is here to stay. Robust long wave trough barreling down across a large portion of the U. behind the departed, strong, cold front. Highs will generally be in the low to mid 40s, which is around 8 degrees below normal. Because of additional clouds moving in overnight, lows will generally stay right around freezing to a few degrees blow freezing for most locations.
Even though temperatures are above freezing, wetbulb temperatures fall below freezing just above the surface.
/issued 829 PM EST Tue Dec 5 2017/ Atlantic high pressure continues to ridge southwest over the area producing light winds overnight and rain-free conditions. Models are still in line with an approaching cold front from the northwest on Wednesday moving through the panhandle during the afternoon and approaching the Nature Coast with rainshowers starting by tomorrow evening. Winds and seas begin to increase Wednesday night through the end of the week, as a cold front moves slowly southward across the waters, with periods of cautionary to advisory conditions and showers likely.
326 AM EST Wed Dec 6 2017 A strong cold front will continue to move southward out of the CWA with rain slowly ending across north GA early this morning. The front will stall as another short wave develops and moves along the cold front this afternoon.
320 AM EST Sun Mar 4 2018 Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb trough on the west coast, a closed low near James Bay and a closed low and trough off the east coast of the U. with a broad 500 mb ridge across the central U. The trough in the western U. moves into the central and northern plains by Mon morning while the ridge remains stationary and troughing remains on the east coast. 00Z soundings from KMPX, KGRB and KINL tell the story for this forecast as the low levels are extremely dry.
A broad upper level trough is present over the western U. Several upper lows are pivoting around each other. The low will weaken and travel south tonight, so any additional snow accumulations will be less than an inch. TAFs at KRDM and KBDN have been updated to reflect the poor visibility and low CIGS due to the snow showers and freezing fog in the area.
Persistent long wave ridging and the drier easterly air flow will erode most of the precipitation spreading across eastern IA late tonight.
304 AM CST Sun Mar 4 2018 Upper ridge axis was exiting eastern Kansas early this morning as the large upper trough works its way into the Great Basin. Dewpoints however remain somewhat limited despite a third day of gusty south to southeast winds thanks to the expansive ridge to the east. Still expect a slow increase in precip chances from today into this evening as the upper trough crosses the Rockies late in the day and enters the northern Plains tonight. Highs still look several degrees cooler with the increased cloud but winds will again be strong from the south to southeast. Expect at least somewhat of a precip increase tonight as strong height falls occur, though Pacific cold front moving through ahead of best falls should limit its coverage and intensity.
VFR will continue through this period with high pressure and very dry air remaining in place.
A Pacific low pressure system will move inland across the Great Basin and Mojave Desert Region tonight and early Sunday bringing isolated to scattered rain showers and snow showers to central Nevada and surrounding areas this evening.
857 PM PST Sat Mar 3 2018 Low pressure along the West Coast will move inland tonight with scattered showers gradually winding down late.
A broad upper level trough is present over the western U. Several upper lows are pivoting around each other. The low will weaken and travel south tonight, so any additional snow accumulations will be less than an inch.
347 AM EST Sun Mar 4 2018 Early morning obs trends still look like the main area for below freezing will be confined to the far northeast, though some other spotty locations could radiate down for an hour or two near sunrise - just not widespread enough for justifying a warning. Majority of fcst period dominated by upper ridging and very dry thermal column.