Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
231 PM EST Mon Jan 4 2021 High pressure ridging is likely over the area early this week. But, the northwest flow will last for a few days, keeping it more cloudy than a typical high pressure set up. Residual low level moisture, combined with light upslope flow, will continue to produce spotty drizzle, freezing drizzle or flurries over the Allegheny Plateau. Cloud cover will keep temperatures from rising much today, with highs likely ranging from the low 30s over the highest ridges of the Alleghenies, to the low 40s across the Lower Susq Valley.
A trough of low pressure along the lee of the Rockies will remain nearly stationary and deepen overnight as an upper level disturbance, located just off the California coast early Monday morning, quickly crosses the western United States. Given the mixing potential in the lower levels and warming forecast boundary layer temperatures overnight will continue to trend towards the warmest guidance low temperatures for early Tuesday morning. At the surface a cold front will roll across southwest Kansas as low level moisture behind this cold front improves and gusty northwest winds at 20 to 30 mph ushers in colder air into the area.
Cold front in northeast Oklahoma will move through later today into the evening, with winds switching to the west/northwest behind it. Patchy fog/freezing fog has developed in some valley locations of the Ozarks where winds were light or calm and should continue to slowly expand in coverage through sunrise, thereafter mixing out once wind speeds increase. Highs today are expected to top out in the lower 50s to lower 60s. On Tuesday, an upper level ridge will quickly eject out of the Cntrl Plains and into the upper MS Valley as new system moves across the Rockies.
While higher mountain valleys will see snow today, influx of warmer air will push temperatures above freezing, thus cutting down on accumulations below 5500-6000 feet. A cold front will cross the region this evening with some heavier showers that could bring brief gusty winds. As the cold front moves through, between 20 to 00z on the Oregon side and 00 to 06z on the Idaho side, expect heavier showers and strong gusts up to 40kts.
1022 AM MST Mon Jan 4 2021 Upper ridging will be the trend this period, with dry weather and another day of above normal temperatures expected across the area. Latest models are coming into better agreement of a quick moving system moving across the Rockies through the day Tuesday, bringing a quick shot of snow to the higher terrain, mainly across the northern and central mountains, with breezy to windy conditions across all of south central and southeast Colorado, ahead of and behind the passing system. With that said, will see increasing westerly flow aloft as the broad upper trough moves into western Colorado by 12Z Tuesday, with the system then moving moving across south central and into eastern Colorado through the late afternoon before exiting Colorado through the late evening hours.
1130 AM CST Mon Jan 4 2021 Trough axis is now transitioning over northwest MN with clearing west to east. Despite CAA aloft westerly flow/daytime mixing should still keep temperatures relatively stable (either side of freezing) through this afternoon. Band of snow and possibly mixed precip quickly moving east is between Detroit Lakes and Park Rapids along the cold front and will be east of the forecast area by 9am. As this area of precip moves toward Fargo Moorhead and into west central MN some CAM guidance expands its coverage and with temps below freezing a glaze of ice will be possible impacting the morning commute.
206 PM MST Mon Jan 4 2021 SCT cirrus is beginning to enter wrn portions of the area this aftn ahead of a compact trof axis near the Pac NW coast. Sfc pressure fall/rise couplet is rather impressive as this system takes shape, with broad areas of +/- 3-5 mb/3 hr on either side of the trof axis. Additionally, model consensus suggests developing low pressure in the lee of the Black Hills this evening thru tomorrow AM. Fairly robust trof reaches the area tomorrow.
The bigger concern will be with a strong cold front, which is expected to pass through the region this evening into the overnight hours. Winds gusting 30 to 50 mph will be possible as the front passes, especially in the higher terrain. The most noticeable impacts will be felt in the higher terrain and over mountain passes (Lookout, Marias, Lolo, Lost Trail, MacDonald Pass and I90 Garrison to Homestake Pass) where a brief period of very low visibility and slick roads due to snow and wind is likely. It is possible that there could be pockets of light freezing rain late tonight before precipitation turns over to all snow early Tuesday morning.
Winds will go light and variable later tonight as a weak high pressure ridge sets up over western MN.
Weak high pressure was building into the southern High Plains, which will push east tonight. Southerly winds take hold Tuesday with modest warm air advection possibly leading to a slightly warmer day though increasing cirrus brings some question to this at this time of year.
Temperatures range from the lower 50s to upper 40s with a light southwesterly winds. Clouds will continue to hover over our eastern area while temperatures will dip down into the lower 30s later tonight.
A quiet night is expected across the region as the upper trough shifts east. Cool conditions will linger tonight with overnight lows in the lower to mid 30s in the northwest to the upper 30s and lower 40s in the southeast.
Behind the weak front, high pressure will quickly traverse the region Tuesday with northeasterly winds veering southeast during the afternoon as the high shifts east of the region. A ridge of high pressure is exiting to the east as a weak and dry cold front moves into East TX and NW LA. This front will move through the local area tonight with high pressure rebuilding from the north.
With the weak boundary nearby and increased cloud coverage, temperatures should be cooler than today by a few degrees, still ranging in the 70s. Tuesday night, persistent onshore flow and moisture increase will lead to slightly warmer overnight lows only dipping into the upper 50s to low 60s.
504 PM CST Mon Jan 4 2021 (This evening through Tuesday) Cold front was pushing south of I-10 this afternoon with north winds of 10 to 15 mph behind it.
Clouds will continue to increase across the Tennessee Valley this afternoon as a weak (and dry) cold front pushes into the area.
411 PM CST Mon Jan 4 2021 Summary: Decaying cold front was seen moving out of the region this afternoon taking with it a wintry mix of precipitation.
310 PM CST Mon Jan 4 2021 Clouds will continue to increase across the Tennessee Valley this afternoon as a weak (and dry) cold front pushes into the area.
431 PM MST Mon Jan 4 2021 Focus will be on the upper trough and cold front moving through the area on Tuesday. Impacts will be on the lower end from gusty winds and light snow.
/NEW/ /Through Tuesday Evening/ Ridging aloft will bring fairly tranquil weather to the region in the near-term. The past couple of days have been warmer than forecast, so biased-corrected guidance was used for temperatures tonight and Tuesday, yielding seasonable overnight lows followed by well above normal daytime highs. Wind speeds around 10 MPH and gradual moisture return should keep Tuesday night temperatures 5 to 10 degrees warmer than previous nights.
29 inches per 00Z sounding) over the region in the wake of yesterday's cold front, now situated over the Straits.
A potent jet streak dropping down the back side of an eastern CONUS trough will be translating through the base of the trough to our south as it goes by late tonight into Tuesday. The real problem which could come into play is the temperatures at higher elevations, where it looks like it will be around freezing above about 3K or 3. As a result, there could be some very light freezing rain or drizzle. Confidence in problems from winter wx is not high enough for an advisory at this point, but an SPS may be issued to highlight the potential for the highest elevations. Once the upper level system departs, ridging will build in from the west late Tuesday and Tuesday night, first at the surface and then aloft.
/issued 209 PM CST Mon Jan 4 2021/ Surface MSLP pattern will respond quickly going into Tue ahead of the next shrtwv trof and assocd cold front. Even though a front passes today the high temps on Tue will not be too much different from today, some clouds across the n.
Otherwise dry and quiet weather with northwest flow aloft tonight backing to southwest flow Tuesday in advance of a fast moving upper trough now crossing the west coast. As the center of the high shifts to the east, winds will quickly return to a southerly component tonight. Although a slug of high- level subtropical moisture will get caught up in the southwesterly flow aloft and carry plenty of thin cirrus over the region during the day, temperatures will still rebound into the lower and middle 60s.
530 PM CST Mon Jan 4 2021 (This evening through Tuesday) Patchy freezing fog may develop once again tonight as temperatures cool--especially given current dewpoints are above the forecast lows tonight.
748 PM CST Mon Jan 4 2021 A cold front will push across our area this evening, moving out much of the fog that has recently plagued the region. High pressure will build into the Midwest behind the front. Weak band of light freezing sprinkles/snow has reached near I-55 this evening and should exit the eastern CWA before midnight.
Expect slight cooling and breezy afternoon winds Tuesday as a dry cold front crosses the region.
/issued 531 PM CST Mon Jan 4 2021/ VFR conditions with clear skies will prevail across the terminals as high pressure builds in from the northwest tonight into Tuesday. /Tonight through Tuesday Night/ Northwest flow aloft to prevail ahead of an upper-level ridge that will become centered across the ArkLaTex on at the end of the short term period on Tuesday night. This setup will allow for mostly clear skies through Tuesday with clouds returning on Tuesday evening as surface and upper-level ridge begin to shift east allowing for a return of southerly moisture areawide. With clouds returning from the south and west, temperatures on Tuesday night to be slightly warmer.
with some NW winds bringing in slightly cooler. some fog potential may remain near any warmer waters.
403 PM MST Mon Jan 4 2021 SCT cirrus is beginning to enter wrn portions of the area this aftn ahead of a compact trof axis near the Pac NW coast. Sfc pressure fall/rise couplet is rather impressive as this system takes shape, with broad areas of +/- 3-5 mb/3 hr on either side of the trof axis. Additionally, model consensus suggests developing low pressure in the lee of the Black Hills this evening thru tomorrow AM. Fairly robust trof reaches the area tomorrow.
652 PM EST Mon Jan 4 2021 High pressure will keep fair weather over the region tonight. A pair of closed lows and a cold pool aloft will combine to produce flurries and snow showers Tuesday and Tuesday night along with minimal accumulation.
Today, ridging is the dominant upper level feature across the region. As the day progresses, the next trof approaches from the west. The next ridge builds into the area with a trof just upstream. As the week progresses, and troughs and ridges pass rapidly across the area, expect periods of gusty winds and mountain snowfall.
Also after some regional collaboration added chances of patchy freezing drizzle to areas with forecasted lowest cloud bases and highest low- level relative humidity, with a possibility of both drizzle and flurries over the course of the night with moisture profiles aloft only marginally supportive of snow. Temperatures will be seasonable, with highs in the lower to mid 30s and lows in the 20s.
207 PM MST Mon Jan 4 2021 Focus will be on the upper trough and cold front moving through the area on Tuesday. Impacts will be on the lower end from gusty winds and light snow.
Temperatures have warmed nicely into the lower 50s across southwest Missouri, however locations across central Missouri were still in the 40s due to cloud cover. West winds look to become light tonight as high pressure builds into the region. Current NBM probabilities seem to indicate that areas closer to the Lake of the Ozarks and perhaps back towards Joplin have the highest potential for visibilities less than 1 mile. Temps will likely drop below freezing as well, therefore the fog may accrete some to elevated surfaces. A mid level ridge looks to build into the area during the day which should allow for temps to warm nicely into the 50s for most locations once any low clouds or fog burns off.
SHORT TERM (Tonight through Tuesday Night): A 500 mb ridge over the western US will continue to move east through the short term with subsidence leading to fair weather conditions across Deep South Texas through Tuesday evening. A weak cold front will move into the CWA tonight stalling out before retreating as a warm front on Tuesday.
531 PM CST Mon Jan 4 2021 VFR conditions with clear skies will prevail across the terminals as high pressure builds in from the northwest tonight into Tuesday. /Tonight through Tuesday Night/ Northwest flow aloft to prevail ahead of an upper-level ridge that will become centered across the ArkLaTex on at the end of the short term period on Tuesday night. This setup will allow for mostly clear skies through Tuesday with clouds returning on Tuesday evening as surface and upper-level ridge begin to shift east allowing for a return of southerly moisture areawide. With clouds returning from the south and west, temperatures on Tuesday night to be slightly warmer.
With that clearing will come decreasing winds as high pressure follows behind the front. Rather weak flow at the surface and aloft trough much of this week will provide largely a persistence forecast, sustaining more stratus and periods of fog. This will also suppress diurnal temperature swings, limiting highs to the lower to mid 30s at best, while overnight lows are held in the upper teens to mid 20s.
(This evening through Tuesday) Patchy freezing fog may develop once again tonight as temperatures cool--especially given current dewpoints are above the forecast lows tonight.
A weak cold front will move through the area tonight into Tuesday morning only serving to switch winds from southwest to northwest with speeds less than 10 knots.
The models show a 80 kt jet max at 300 mb over northwestern CO by 12z Tuesday, just ahead of the approaching trough axis. Southwesterly ridgetop winds ahead of trough will favor zone 31 as well.
549 PM CST Mon Jan 4 2021 Summary: Decaying cold front was seen moving out of the region this afternoon taking with it a wintry mix of precipitation.
540 PM CST Mon Jan 4 2021 Passing short wave trough with associated surface boundary continues to scour fog and low ceilings in shallow inversion out from west to east.
An upper trough over the upper Mississippi valley will dig into the southeast CONUS tonight causing an increase in cloud cover over southeast Georgia. This increase in cloud cover will prevent lows from falling and keep them seasonable in the low 40s across southeast Georgia. Cooler temperatures in the upper 30s will be possible across inland northeast Florida due to mostly clear skies allowing for radiational cooling. Lows will be in the low to mid 40s along the Atlantic coast.
714 PM EST Mon Jan 4 2021 High pressure will keep fair weather over the region tonight. A pair of closed lows and a cold pool aloft will combine to produce flurries and snow showers Tuesday and Tuesday night along with minimal accumulation.
/issued 316 PM CST Mon Jan 4 2021/ SHORT TERM (Tonight through Tuesday Night): A 500 mb ridge over the western US will continue to move east through the short term with subsidence leading to fair weather conditions across Deep South Texas through Tuesday evening. A weak cold front will move into the CWA tonight stalling out before retreating as a warm front on Tuesday.
Expect today's highs to climb into the lower 50s across central Missouri to near 60 along the Arkansas/Missouri border. For tonight, expect lows to fall into the middle 30s, with the valleys reaching closer to freezing.
254 AM CST Tue Jan 5 2021 Today looks to be the warmest day of the week as ridging and southerly surface flow combine to give us a beautiful afternoon.
VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours, as light sfc flow veers to return flow during the day Tuesday, then to westerly after sunset as leeside troughing develops. /issued 209 PM CST Mon Jan 4 2021/ Surface MSLP pattern will respond quickly going into Tue ahead of the next shrtwv trof and assocd cold front. Even though a front passes today the high temps on Tue will not be too much different from today, some clouds across the n.
1015 PM CST Mon Jan 4 2021 Summary: Decaying cold front was seen moving out of the region this afternoon taking with it a wintry mix of precipitation.
Have not seen much in the way of a dew point drop yet, however, lower dew points and slightly cooler air is expected to push in later tonight. Behind the weak front, high pressure will quickly traverse the region Tuesday with northeasterly winds veering southeast during the afternoon as the high shifts east of the region. A ridge of high pressure is exiting to the east as a weak and dry cold front moves into East TX and NW LA. This front will move through the local area tonight with high pressure rebuilding from the north.
254 AM CST Tue Jan 5 2021 Short wave ridging this morning will move east today as a short wave trough quickly moves across the Intermountain West. This upper level trough will induce surface lee cyclogenesis in southeastern Colorado this afternoon. As a result, a strong surface pressure gradient will generate southwesterly surface winds around 20-25 mph on the caprock with the highest winds in the extreme southwestern Texas Panhandle.
Tonight winds will switch from the southwest to the northwest as the trough moves through Nebraska and Kansas. The main energy with the trough and low will be more into Nebraska so if we do see any precipitation it will be mainly north of the I-70 corridor. At the surface a cold front will roll across southwest Kansas as low level moisture behind this cold front improves and gusty northwest winds at 20 to 30 mph ushers in colder air into the area.
1107 PM CST Mon Jan 4 2021 For the 05/06Z TAF period, VFR conditions with clear skies will prevail across the terminals as high pressure builds in from the northwest tonight into Tuesday.
Southwest winds 5 knots or less will shift to northerly 5 to 10 knots as a weak cold front moves south across the forecast area beginning around 08z. A weak cold front will move across the forecast area later tonight into Tuesday. Significantly cooler air behind the front is not expected, with temperature dropping to around seasonal norms tonight. Low temperatures ranging from the low 30s north of Highway 84 to around 40 along the coast expected.
1041 PM EST Mon Jan 4 2021 A cold front passed the Keys earlier today. Full- on clear skies will prevail, with a cool air mass holding high temperatures down in the lower 70s. In the wake of a cold front that passed the Keys on Monday afternoon, a high pressure center will meander across the north-central Gulf on Tuesday.
Sounding profiles display the snow dendritic growth zone well above the moisture layer for the lower elevations south of Lake Ontario, and here is the most likely area for drizzle. With temperatures near freezing, a spot or two of freezing drizzle is possible. though temperatures thus far this early morning are favoring above freezing than below in areas where drizzle is a possibility. Tonight the flow will become northerly as the upstream ridge pushes eastward, while moisture advection around the upper level low to our east brings moisture back into the snow DGZ. The continued weak forcing today and tonight will yield snow fall around a dusting across lower elevations and perhaps a half to one inch across the higher terrain south of Lake Ontario.
259 AM EST Tue Jan 5 2021 Synopsis/Discussion/Marine - Icy travel possible for the morning commute today - Risk for Freezing fog later tonight - Icy travel possible for the morning commute today Temperatures have lowered into the 28 to 32 degree range with fairly steady drizzle occurring. - Risk for Freezing fog later tonight Bufkit overviews and High Res models show a low potential for thicker fog later tonight mainly for our southwest counties. In addition patchy freezing drizzle will give way to a band of snow showers through early morning as a cold front pushes through. enough drying in the low levels should occur to bump the ceilings up into the MVFR category.
1143 PM CST Mon Jan 4 2021 Summary: Decaying cold front was seen moving out of the region this afternoon taking with it a wintry mix of precipitation.
936 PM CST Mon Jan 4 2021 Mid-level clouds expected to hang around overnight, though a weak cold front is moving across northern Alabama and southern Middle Tennessee this evening.
Tonight winds will switch from the southwest to the northwest as the trough moves through Nebraska and Kansas. The main energy with the trough and low will be more into Nebraska so if we do see any precipitation it will be mainly north of the I-70 corridor.
153 AM MST Tue Jan 5 2021 Focus will be on the upper trough and cold front moving through the area on Tuesday. Impacts will be on the lower end from gusty winds and light snow.
1119 PM EST Mon Jan 4 2021 High pressure will keep fair weather over the region tonight. A pair of closed lows and a cold pool aloft will combine to produce flurries and snow showers Tuesday and Tuesday night along with minimal accumulation.
Cold front moved across the OR/ID border around 6 PM MST and through Boise 7 PM with gusts 30-40 mph and a short period of moderate to heavy rain. Mostly VFR with MVFR to LIFR conditions in rain and snow along a cold front. Surface winds: generally southwest 5-15 kts with gusts up to 40 kts along the cold front and over higher terrain overnight.
259 AM CST Tue Jan 5 2021 High pressure will build into the region today, which usually signals plenty of sunshine.
Further west more energy was moving towards British Columbia with a closed upper low south of Alaska. At the surface, high pressure was centered over eastern OK with any meaningful moisture pooled along the gulf coast.
Mid-level clouds expected to hang around overnight, though a weak cold front is moving across northern Alabama and southern Middle Tennessee this evening.
1001 PM CST Mon Jan 4 2021 Passing short wave trough with associated surface boundary continues to scour fog and low ceilings in shallow inversion out from west to east.
Higher midlevel clouds over west TN preceded the lower deck, but these should exit by late evening. Temperatures range from the lower 50s to upper 40s with a light southwesterly winds. Clouds will continue to hover over our eastern area while temperatures will dip down into the lower 30s later tonight.
The blocking pattern will result in quiet conditions for the Northland for much of the upcoming week with above normal temperatures.
Upper level trough extending west-northwest from offshore low pressure south of Yarmouth, NS continues to pull some mid-level moisture westward back into northern New England/nrn NY this morning and expect this trend to continue into tonight. Highs today similar to Monday in the lower to mid 30s with lows tonight holding seasonably mild in the 20s with mainly overcast skies.
Light precip is expected to spread in from the west around 09Z, at which time the freezing level will be around 3500 ft. Chattanooga Airport, TN 50 29 50 35 48 / 10 0 0 20 40 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 46 29 47 31 47 / 40 10 0 10 30 Oak Ridge, TN 45 27 47 31 47 / 30 10 0 10 30 Tri Cities Airport, TN 43 29 42 27 47 / 70 20 0 10 20.
1036 PM EST Mon Jan 4 2021 High pressure will keep fair weather over the region tonight. A pair of closed lows and a cold pool aloft will combine to produce flurries and snow showers Tuesday and Tuesday night along with minimal accumulation.