Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
549 AM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015 A DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTH FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES INTO QUEBEC. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN U. DEEP UPPER LOW SPINNING FROM NE OHIO INTO NW PA WILL BRING SCT TO NMRS SHOWERS INTO THE WRN ALLEGHENIES TODAY. WLY FLOW IN THE LEE OF HIGHER TERRAIN SHOULD HELP TO LIMIT COVERAGE OF SHOWERS FROM THE RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION INTO THE MID TO LOWER SQV. EXPECT SHOWER ACTIVITY TO DECREASE BY TONIGHT AS WEAK RIDGING BUILDS IN AT THE SFC AND ALOFT AND DRIER AIR FILTERS IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW.
428 AM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015 SHOWERS AND COOL CONDITIONS WILL GREET THE NEW WEEK AS A PERSISTENT TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION. SO FAR TODAY THE HIGH TEMP -63- WAS AT MIDNIGHT (STANDARD TIME). PRECIPITATION WILL FINALLY COME TO AN END THIS EVENING AS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE REGION. BEFORE SHOWERS SPREAD FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST OVER THE AREA AS A WARM FRONT CROSSES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
654 AM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY BRINGING A GOOD SOAKING RAIN AND SOME GUSTY WINDS TO THE AREA.
310 AM MDT SUN JUN 28 2015 UPPER FLOW WILL BE NORTHWEST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH A RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
1244 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015 HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE AREA.
208 AM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015 LOW PRESSURE CENTER DRIFTS EAST. COOLER HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST MONDAY.
First of all, a few lingering sprinkles may be present in the low clouds that are currently out there. The low clouds are dissipating and will continue to do so over the next couple of hours with skies becoming mostly clear after midnight. NW winds and cold pool strato-cu and the rule across te Ohio Valley this afternoon as the upper low closes off and slows down as if paying a toll at the Indiana/Ohio line.
120 AM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015 SHOWERS AND COOL CONDITIONS WILL GREET THE NEW WEEK AS A PERSISTENT TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION. THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO TRUDGE OFF TO THE NORTH AND EAST SUNDAY NIGHT. TRANSIENT AND SMALL MIDLEVEL AND SURFACE RIDGING WILL KEEP THE CWA MOSTLY DRY LATER SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING.
MOST HIGH-RES MODELS KEEP THE HIGHEST CONCENTRATION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CWA OR NEAR THE HIGHWAY 90 CORRIDOR AND WILL CARRY 50 POPS CLOSE TO THIS REGION. TEMPERATURES IN THE SHORT-TERM WILL REMAIN PERSISTENT WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 DEGREES AND LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S.
SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PREVAILING ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS ON THE FRONT SIDE OF A LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL HIGH IN THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. AS IT DOES SO, A SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL RETURN TO WESTERN KANSAS HELPING TO DRAW WARMER AIR INTO THE AREA RESULTING IN SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES SUNDAY MORNING. FOR SUNDAY, WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY THEN SOUTHWESTERLY AS A LEE SIDE TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING WARMER AIR NORTHWARD INTO WESTERN KANSAS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE PATTERN IN THE EXTENDED CONSISTS OF A MEAN RIDGE ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN REGION WITH BROAD NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS REGION THROUGH ABOUT MID WEEK.
ANOMALOUSLY STRONG UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL PUSH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO THE DEEP SOUTH. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS REMAINS SOUTH OF THE AREA AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS NORTH OF FL AND WEAKENS. THE 27/00Z GFS A LITTLE STRONGER IN ITS TREATMENT OF PUSHING THE 500MB TROUGH AND ITS WEAK IMPULSES.
1221 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015 FOR 06Z TAFS /ISSUED 922 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015/ THE 02Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED THAT THE COLD FRONT HAD MOVED SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. DEWPOINTS WERE ALREADY FALLING INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
125 AM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO OCCLUDE AND PULL NORTHEAST SUNDAY MORNING. AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE REGION ON MONDAY. THE LOW WILL ALSO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S WHICH IS 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
648 AM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING AND BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY NEAR THE EASTERN MIDLANDS AND COASTAL PLAIN THIS AFTERNOON. THE FRONT MAY PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALTHOUGH DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN FROM THE WEST AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED.
MOST OFFICIAL OBSERVATIONS SITES WILL ACHIEVE RECORD HIGHS TODAY AS THE REGION REMAINS UNDER A STRONG RIDGE ALOFT. MOISTURE/CLOUDS CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWARD IN MONSOON-LIKE FLOW AROUND THE RIDGE. THE NAM CONTINUES TO INSIST THAT CONVECTION WILL BE WIDESPREAD ACROSS ALMOST ALL OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SE OREGON AND SW IDAHO. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THIS WILL PUSH A SURFACE FRONT THROUGH THE REGION EVEN AS IT PUSHES THE UPPER RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST AND BRINGS SOME RELIEF FROM THE RECORD-SETTING HEAT.
THE CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO TRACK NE INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. OVERALL PATTERN WILL REMAIN THE SAME WITH LONG WAVE TROUGH IN THE EASTERN CONUS AND STRONG RIDGE IN THE WESTERN CONUS. THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT OFF A SECONDARY LOW STRETCHING SW FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. HERE IN EASTERN KY WE ARE ENJOYING NW/W FLOW THAT IS USHERING IN DRIER AND COOLER AIR. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE AND COLD FRONT DROP SE LATE IN THE PERIOD. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A MEAN EASTERN CONUS LONG WAVE TROUGH THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
ONSHORE FLOW IS KEEPING TEMPS MUCH COOLER THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS. VARYING AMOUNTS OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF A WEAK CLOSED LOW OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. BREEZY SOUTH WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED THROUGH MUCH OF THE SACRAMENTO VALLEY AND TEMPERATURES THERE ARE RUNNING AROUND 10 DEGREES COOLER COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO. ELSEWHERE, TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLER COMPARED TO YESTERDAY.
359 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015 A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS SOUTHWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
405 AM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015 LOW PRESSURE CENTER DRIFTS EAST ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN STATES TODAY AND TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT CROSSING MONDAY NIGHT BEGINS A PARADE OF SYSTEMS CROSSING THE AREA DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK. LOW PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING. COOLER HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST MONDAY.
336 AM MDT SUN JUN 28 2015 SOME SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WAS ROTATING AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTERED OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF NRN CO THIS AFTN AND EVENING. AS A RESULT MAY SEE A BETTER CHC OF TSTMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
633 AM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015 LOW PRESSURE CENTER DRIFTS EAST ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN STATES TODAY AND TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT CROSSING MONDAY NIGHT BEGINS A PARADE OF SYSTEMS CROSSING THE AREA DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK. LOW PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER ON MONDAY. AS A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE REGION OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW. ALONG WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES.
AN UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUED TO BE CENTERED OVER UTAH THIS AFTERNOON. WITH MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THIS RIDGE PRODUCING CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHERN MTS. THE UPPER RIDGE DOES NOT MOVE SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS. CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED TO BUBBLE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH THE EVE. SO LOOK FOR MAX TEMPS TOMORROW IN THE 80S FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS.
EARLY AFTERNOON SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A POCKET OF SFC MOISTURE OVER EASTERN IOWA AND SOME MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN EASTERN NEBRASKA ALONG A WARM FRONT WHICH WILL BUBBLE UP A FEW STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION ALONG THE TROUGH OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA/NORTH DAKOTA INITIATING AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. LOWS WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S ACROSS THE BOARD WITH LIGHT SW WINDS AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM BECOMING MORE WESTERLY BY 12Z.
346 AM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015 OVERALL QUIET AND PLEASANT SHORT TERM ON TAP BEHIND SATURDAYS COLD FRONT ACTIVITY. LATEST OBSERVATIONS SHOW COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED JUST SOUTH OF THE ATLANTA AREA. COOLER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO THE STATE BEHIND THE FRONT. THE H5 TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U. WILL SHIFT EVER SO SLIGHTLY EASTWARD WITH A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES ROTATING THROUGH THE BOTTOM OF THE TROUGH.
CURRENT WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN UTAH THIS AFTERNOON. THIS HIGH WILL DRIFT NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND SLIGHTLY WESTWARD. THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL GREATLY DEPEND ON THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH. AS THE MIDLEVEL SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL BE TOO GREAT FOR DEEP CONVECTION TO OVERCOME. WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH DRIFTING NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW TOO MUCH CIN OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. ALL MODELS SHOW THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH NUDGING EASTWARD.
547 AM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015 SHOWERS AND COOL CONDITIONS WILL GREET THE NEW WEEK AS A PERSISTENT TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION. SO FAR TODAY THE HIGH TEMP -63- WAS AT MIDNIGHT (STANDARD TIME). PRECIPITATION WILL FINALLY COME TO AN END THIS EVENING AS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE REGION. BEFORE SHOWERS SPREAD FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST OVER THE AREA AS A WARM FRONT CROSSES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
255 AM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OUT OF THE REGION EARLY TODAY BRINGING COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS TO START THE NEW WEEK. ON MONDAY AN ANOMALOUS HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. WHILE A RIDGE OF SIMILAR PROPORTIONS WILL BE OVER THE WEST. A CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL BE LIFTING OUT OF THE TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC.
254 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015 SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. DRIER AIR IS MOVING INTO N AL WITH DEW POINTS NOW IN THE LOW/MID 60S. THE EASTERN CONUS WILL CONTINUE TO BE DOMINATED BY THE UPPER TROUGH THRU THE UPCOMING WEEK.
CURRENT AREA OF TSTMS NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER ALONG WARM FRONT STRETCHING ALONG THAT AREA. THE COLD FRONT IS IN NW MN SLOWLY SLIDING SE. BUT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER ALONG THE INVERTED TROUGH OVERNIGHT OVER NORTHEASTERN MINNESOTA. SUNDAY TO BE COOLER THAN TODAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S WITH ALL THE CLOUD COVER AND COOLER AIRMASS MOVING INTO THE REGION.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN SD AND NORTHWESTERN MN THIS AFTERNOON.
243 AM MDT SUN JUN 28 2015 UPPER FLOW WILL BE NORTHWEST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH A RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
333 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015 NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS BUILDING SOUTH. THE MODELS INDICATE DRIER AIR TODAY WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 50S THIS AFTERNOON. THIS COULD PUSH MIXING HEIGHTS ABOVE 750 MB AND HIGHS WARMER THAN THE UPPER 80S. LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEK WITH NORTHWEST FLOW DOMINATING THE HIGH PLAINS. THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE ACROSS THE WEST DOES RETROGRADE TO THE NORTHWEST DURING THE WEEK.
151 AM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015 COLD FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE HAVE NOW MOVED EAST AND NORTHEAST RESPECTIVELY TONIGHT. THIS HAS USHERED COOLER AND DRIER AIR SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION. CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA AS OF 1930Z FEATURE THE COLD FRONT NOW CROSSING I-75 AND MOVING INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY. WITH SURFACE RIDGING NUDGING INTO KENTUCKY TONIGHT. RIDGING ENTERING THE AREA WILL MAKE FOR A RATHER PLEASANT DAY ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY ON SUNDAY WITH LITTLE CLOUD COVER AND TEMPS REBOUNDING INTO THE MID AND UPPER 70S. A RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN CONTROL ACROSS THE WEST. WITH TROUGHING RESIDING IN THE EAST. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW IN TIMING PASSING SHORT WAVE TROUGHS AS WELL AS PREDICTING HOW SURFACE FEATURES WILL PLAY OUT.
41 AREA OBS AND REGIONAL RADARS ARE SHOWING THE MUCH ADVERTISED COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO NW AL AND CENTRAL TN. THE HAIL THREAT STILL LOOKS MINIMAL WITH THE FREEZING LEVEL ABOVE 14KFT. THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL QUICKLY END BEHIND THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THROUGH THE EVENING AND GREATLY DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. LOOK FORWARD TO THE COOLER TEMPS BEHIND THE FRONT FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. 39 INITIAL EXTENDED PERIODS CONTINUE WITH A SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRY AIR MASS OVER THE AREA BEHIND THE SHORT TERM COLD FRONT.
SE TEXAS WAS CAUGHT IN A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE ALOFT. ALTHOUGH THERE WAS A 200-300 MB UPPER LOW OFF BROWNSVILLE AND A 200-300 MB TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PART OF THE STATE THAT EXTENDED TO THE NORTHERN COUNTIES OF THE COUNTY WARNING AND FORECAST AREA. THE BEST SO FAR HAS BEEN THE HIGH RES ARW/NMM. GIVEN THE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS.
1219 AM CDT Sun Jun 28 2015 KSGF free of echoes though there remains a slight chance for isolated TSRA over the eastern Ozarks through late afternoon as a short wave descends southward into the upper trough over the Ohio Valley.
CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA AS OF 1930Z FEATURE THE COLD FRONT NOW CROSSING I-75 AND MOVING INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY. WITH SURFACE RIDGING NUDGING INTO KENTUCKY TONIGHT. RIDGING ENTERING THE AREA WILL MAKE FOR A RATHER PLEASANT DAY ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY ON SUNDAY WITH LITTLE CLOUD COVER AND TEMPS REBOUNDING INTO THE MID AND UPPER 70S. A RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN CONTROL ACROSS THE WEST. WITH TROUGHING RESIDING IN THE EAST. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW IN TIMING PASSING SHORT WAVE TROUGHS AS WELL AS PREDICTING HOW SURFACE FEATURES WILL PLAY OUT.
655 AM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015 UNSEASONABLE COOL START THIS MORNING WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S ACROSS THE REGION. THE CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO TRACK NE INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. OVERALL PATTERN WILL REMAIN THE SAME WITH LONG WAVE TROUGH IN THE EASTERN CONUS AND STRONG RIDGE IN THE WESTERN CONUS. THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT OFF A SECONDARY LOW STRETCHING SW FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. HERE IN EASTERN KY WE ARE ENJOYING NW/W FLOW THAT IS USHERING IN DRIER AND COOLER AIR. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE AND COLD FRONT DROP SE LATE IN THE PERIOD. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A MEAN EASTERN CONUS LONG WAVE TROUGH THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
THE RIDGE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER UTAH IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE TODAY AND TONIGHT. MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. -AL WESTERN UPPER RIDGE FLATTENS AND EXPANDS SLIGHTLY EASTWARD MON/TUE. MAX TEMPS MON SHOULD RUN SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN SUN OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS AS COOLER AIR FILTERS SOUTH FOLLOWING LATE SUN WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE. AND A FEW SPOTS ACROSS THE LOWER ARKANSAS VALLEY WILL CREEP UPWARD TOWARD THE 100F MARK. UPPER RIDGE THEN SHIFTS WESTWARD BEGINNING WED. AS SERIES OF SHORT WAVES DEEPENS THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST. FIRST WAVE WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION WED. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BACK TO BELOW AVERAGE READINGS THU AS HEIGHTS FALL AND COOLER AIR PUSHES SOUTH. KPUB WILL LIKELY NOT SEE VCNTY TSTMS AS CONVECTION REMAINS MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS IN CONTROL OVER THE REGION. WITH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE HIGH TERRAIN.
INCREASING ATMOSPHERIC THICKNESS AND STRENGTHENING SOUTHWESTERLY LOW- LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL SUPPORT A HOT AND BREEZY DAY TODAY. REACHING ROUGHLY THE HIGHWAY 50 OR KS TURNPIKE CORRIDORS BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON.
400 AM CDT Sun Jun 28 2015 (Today and tonight) A few thunderstorms have developed early this morning across the Northwest Hill Country along what appears to be the remnants of a cold front which moved through the area yesterday. The persistent upper air pattern with an amplified ridge to the west and a trough to the east continues, with generally northerly flow across west Texas.
453 AM MDT SUN JUN 28 2015 UPPER FLOW WILL BE NORTHWEST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH A RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
A STRONG UPPER HIGH IN THE WEST AND A DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EAST. YESTERDAYS COLD FRONT WILL MAKE VERY LITTLE PROGRESS SOUTHWARD THIS MORNING.
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE OVER WESTERN KANSAS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT WITH RIDGING IN THE WEST AND TROUGHING IN THE EAST. LEE TROUGHING WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO LEADING TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE CWA. THIS WILL HELP PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.
536 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015 A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS SOUTHWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
237 AM PDT SUN JUN 28 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL CONTINUE TO FUNNEL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION RESULTING IN CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.
626 AM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE NORTHEAST TO NEW ENGLAND TODAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THE RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE AND A WEAK COLD APPROACH THE REGION. THE LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED CLOSED MID LVL CIRCULATION WILL MOVE TOWARD THE NEW ENGLAND REGION TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S NORTHEAST TO THE UPPER 70S SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED QUICKLY BY ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND A WEAK COLD FRONT FOR MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. AS THE LOW LEVEL JET SHIFTS EAST. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S NORTH TO THE UPPER 70S SOUTH. ITS ATTENDANT WEAK COLD FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST INTO THE REGION.
234 AM MDT SUN JUN 28 2015 GENERAL HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OVER UTAH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN STUCK IN PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE. SO THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND TSTORMS ON MONDAY IN AREAS WHICH WILL NOT RECEIVE ANYTHING OTHER THAN PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE AND TEMPS IN THE HIGH 90S TO TRIPLE DIGITS TODAY.
AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH NUDGES SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHERN GEORGIA. WITH EXPANSION OF SHWRS/TSTMS IN THE AFTN AS A SURFACE COLD FRONT EDGES SOUTH INTO SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE OVER WESTERN KANSAS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT WITH RIDGING IN THE WEST AND TROUGHING IN THE EAST. LEE TROUGHING WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO LEADING TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE CWA. THIS WILL HELP PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. THE PATTERN IN THE EXTENDED CONSISTS OF A MEAN RIDGE ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN REGION WITH BROAD NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS REGION THROUGH ABOUT MID WEEK.
321 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015 THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN THIS AFTERNOON WITH ONLY WEAK RIDGING EXTENDING INTO THE CWFA. THE RESULT WILL BE A MOSTLY DOWN DAY CONVECTIVELY SPEAKING, ISOLD POPS WARRANTED MAINLY IN/NEAR ELEVATED HEAT SOURCES FROM DAVIS MTNS S AND WITHIN MID LEVEL THETA-E GRADIENT ACROSS THE LOWER TRANS PECOS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT WESTWARD AFTER MIDWEEK BRINGING A DRIER NORTHERLY FLOW TO THE AREA.
519 AM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015 A DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTH FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES INTO QUEBEC. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN U. DEEP UPPER LOW SPINNING FROM NE OHIO INTO NW PA WILL BRING SCT TO NMRS SHOWERS INTO THE WRN ALLEGHENIES TODAY. WLY FLOW IN THE LEE OF HIGHER TERRAIN SHOULD HELP TO LIMIT COVERAGE OF SHOWERS FROM THE RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION INTO THE MID TO LOWER SQV. EXPECT SHOWER ACTIVITY TO DECREASE BY TONIGHT AS WEAK RIDGING BUILDS IN AT THE SFC AND ALOFT AND DRIER AIR FILTERS IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW.
THE UPDRAFTS ARE STRUGGLING TODAY WHEN COMPARED TO YESTERDAY AFTERNOON AS SUBTLE UPPER RIDGING MOVES ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. THE LIGHT LOW LEVEL FLOW IN THE LOWEST KILOMETER AND THIN CAPES MAY HELP IN KEEPING UPDRAFTS ONLY MODESTLY ROBUST AND NOT ENOUGH TO SUSTAIN A LARGE HAIL THREAT. OTHERWISE LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD AVERAGE IN THE LOWER 60S.
THE MORE WESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING COOLER AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA AND END THE RECORD HEAT. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RE- ORIENTS ITSELF AS IT UNDERGOES SOME RETROGRADE MOVEMENT INTO NEVADA AND CALIFORNIA. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINED ANCHORED OVER THE GREAT BASIN EARLY THIS MORNING AS SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE ROTATED NORTH AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINED ANCHORED OVER THE GREAT BASIN THIS MORNING AS SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE ROTATED NORTH AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH. A LOW POSITIONED OFF THE COAST OF NRN CALIFORNIA WILL LIFT NORTH OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE INTO SRN CANADA MONDAY AS A WEAK ASSOCIATED SURFACE BOUNDARY CLIPS THE CNTRL MOUNTAINS.
THE WEAKENING COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM JUST SOUTH OF MONTGOMERY AL WESTWARD TO JUST SOUTH OF JACKSON MS. HIGH LEVEL TROF REMAINS POSITIONED FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES. QUASI-STATIONARY SURFACE FRONT DRAPED NEAR THE GULF COAST MONDAY MORNING IS FORECAST TO BECOME ABSORBED BY THE SYNOPTIC SCALE LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY FLOW AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES BETTER DEFINED OVER THE GULF LATE IN THE DAY AND CONTINUING INTO MONDAY NIGHT. ALONG WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THE MOISTURE AXIS AND SUBTLE MID LEVEL IMPULSES ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE LONG WAVE HIGH LEVEL TROF.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO NORTHERN ARIZONA FROM THE WEST BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND A WARMING TREND ON FRIDAY.
THE TWO MAIN CONCERNS OVERNIGHT WILL BE THE LINE OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH SLIDING INTO CENTRAL FL AND THE EASTERN GULF AND FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. LIGHT SE/S WIND TONIGHT ALONG WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AS COLD FRONT STILL BACK IN THE GULF OF MEXICO AND WON'T MAKE ITS PRESENCE FELT ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA UNTIL FRIDAY.
A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ARE OVER THE MOUNTAIN RIDGES. STRONG RIDGING WILL BE BUILDING OVER THE STATE TONIGHT WHICH WILL BE SUBSIDENT. THIS RIDGE IS BUILDING A STRONG NORTHWEST JET ALOFT WILL BE TRANSLATING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. POSSIBLY AS FAR DOWN TO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS ALONG THE FOOTHILLS. TOMORROW WILL BE WARMER ACROSS THE PLAINS AS THE WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH. ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LOW DUE TO STABILITY OF THE AIRMASS UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE THAT WILL BE OVER THE STATE.
ADDED CAUTION TO THE NEAR SHORE WATERS WEST OF CAMERON AFTER MIDNIGHT AND NUDGED TEMPS COOLER WHILE UPDATING THE WINDS TO REFLECT THIS SURGE. /ISSUED 245 PM CST THU DEC 17 2015/ WX MAP SHOWS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER E TX/AR/LA. THIS SECONDARY COLD FRONT AND HIGH WILL MOVE THRU LATER THIS EVENING. DML NORTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 20 KTS ACROSS THE 20-60 NM ZONES AGAIN TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS A SECONDARY HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS INTO TEXAS.
WIDESPREAD RAIN FRIDAY THEN COOLER TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND. LTST ANALYSIS SHOWS THE COLD FRONT JUST WEST OF TALLAHASSEE AT 9PM. INCREASING LOWER CLOUDS AREAWIDE ALONG WITH SOME FOG IS POSSIBLE MAINLY SOUTH BY DAYBREAK WHERE WINDS ARE THE LIGHTEST AND MOISTURE THE HIGHEST. HIGHS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOW 80S FOR THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES TO AROUND 70 ACROSS NORTH LAKE AND NORTHERN VOLUSIA COUNTY. THEN MUCH COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL ADVECT DOWN THE PENINSULA. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL GRADUALLY SETTLE INTO THE STATE AND CAUSE BREEZY ONSHORE FLOW TO VEER TO THE SOUTH TOWARDS MID WEEK.
CLEAR SKIES THROUGHOUT PERIOD WITH A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL DRY AIR BEHIND AN OVERNIGHT COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. /ISSUED 355 PM CST THU DEC 17 2015/ HIGH PRESSURE WAS BRINGING A FAIR WEATHER DAY ACROSS SE TEXAS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BRING A COUPLE OF COOL NIGHTS.
COLD FRONT STILL EXPECTED TO CLEAR THE REGION DURING THE MORNING HOURS ON FRIDAY WITH A LAST BURST OF SHOWERS.
728 PM EST THU DEC 17 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING.
OBS SHOW A STARK GRADIENT BETWEEN FREEZING AND 3 TO 4 DEGREES ABOVE. AS THE H500 TROUGH FINALLY LIFTS E/NE INTO THE OZARKS. AS HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AS IT CONTINUES TO PUSH TO THE E/SE. WITH UPPER 40S ACROSS OKLAHOMA TO THE LOW 50S ACROSS TEXOMA AND NORTHERN TEXAS. BROAD RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD THROUGH THE DAY.