Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
405 AM CST FRI JAN 16 2015 SURFACE ANALYSIS AT 09Z HAS A BROAD 1026MB HIGH PRESSURE OVER MUCH OF TX. WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THESE AREAS FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF FREEZING FOG. IF VISBY CONTINUE TO DROP THEN A FREEZING FOG ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF ICING AS FOG COMES IN CONTACT WITH SURFACES AT OR BELOW FREEZING. IMPACTS SHOULD BE MINIMAL BUT COULD STILL CAUSE SOME SLICK AREAS ON BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES. ALOFT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOW POLAR JET CORE MOVING EAST OF THE REGION WITH NW FLOW OVER THE PLAINS DUE TO BROAD UPPER LOW OVER HUDSON BAY IN CANADA. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE PAC NW WILL MOVE INTO THE PLAINS SATURDAY AND THEN EAST OF MISS RIVER VALLEY ON SUN.
THE FREEZING FOG WAS BECOMING LESS WIDESPREAD THIS MORNING ACROSS SE TN AND SW NC. CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 49 28 58 35 / 0 0 0 10 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 45 26 56 36 / 0 0 0 10 OAK RIDGE, TN 46 25 56 36 / 0 0 0 20 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 41 22 55 32 / 0 0 0 10 NC. FREEZING FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR CHEROKEE- CLAY. FREEZING FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST /10 AM CST/ THIS MORNING FOR BLEDSOE-BRADLEY-EAST POLK-HAMILTON-MARION-MCMINN-MEIGS- NORTHWEST MONROE-RHEA-SEQUATCHIE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-WEST POLK.
930 AM EST FRI JAN 16 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. UPDATE 930 AM EST: UPDATED TO INCREASE WIND GUSTS FOR THE AFTERNOON WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. WEAK LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY IN THE GULF OF MAINE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE MARITIMES THIS MORNING. A STRONG COLD FRONT IS ALSO APPROACHING THE STATE FROM THE NORTHWEST AND WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. SNOW SHOWERS AND SNOW SQUALLS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL BRING A MOSTLY SUNNY BUT BITTER COLD AND BREEZY DAY ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS FROM JUST BELOW ZERO IN THE NORTH TO THE LOW TEENS ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE IN THE DAY AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
255 AM PST FRI JAN 16 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS OREGON AND INTO FAR NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. MEANWHILE, OTHER LOCATIONS ARE HAVING JUST HIGH CLOUDS AS THE TROUGH PASSES TO THE NORTH.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT TRI UNTIL 16-18Z.
856 AM EST FRI JAN 16 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY IN THE GULF OF MAINE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE MARITIMES THIS MORNING. A STRONG COLD FRONT IS ALSO APPROACHING THE STATE FROM THE NORTHWEST AND WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. SNOW SHOWERS AND SNOW SQUALLS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL BRING A MOSTLY SUNNY BUT BITTER COLD AND BREEZY DAY ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS FROM JUST BELOW ZERO IN THE NORTH TO THE LOW TEENS ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE IN THE DAY AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
916 AM EST FRI JAN 16 2015 HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION TODAY WILL MOVE OFFSHORE SATURDAY.
546 AM CST FRI JAN 16 2015 SURFACE FRONT WILL INTENSIFY ACROSS IOWA TODAY AS THERMAL RIDGE FROM THE PLAINS SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY. THIS WILL LIMIT SUNSHINE ALONG WITH HEATING WITH READINGS LIKELY ONLY REACHING FREEZING BY MID AFTERNOON. WITH MODELS TRENDING TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY WARMER. LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PUSH QUICKLY SOUTH ACROSS NORTHER PLAIN STATES. WILL SEE SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES BEHIND BOUNDARY. MODELS HAVE CONTINUED SLIGHTLY WARMER TREND FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND. WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES TO THE SOUTH.
AND POSSIBLE FLURRIES AND FREEZING DRIZZLE TODAY OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL AND PARTS OF NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THE FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGS A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AND STRONG WINDS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THIS OCCURS AS WARM ADVECTION TAKES HOLD FROM THE WEST AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. NO HIGHER CLOUDS ABOVE THE LOW STRATUS. AND THIS AREA REMAINS UNDER THREAT OF FREEZING DRIZZLE ALONG WITH THE FOG. WILL KEEP A MENTION OF PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE THIS MORNING. THEN TRANSITION TO SNOW LATE FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. WE COULD SEE A PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR FREEZING DRIZZLE OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL AND INTO THE JAMES VALLEY SATURDAY MORNING AS THE ATMOSPHERE DRIES THROUGH THE SNOW GROWTH ZONE.
921 AM EST FRI JAN 16 2015 COLD FRONT HAS PRESSED SOUTH OF THE REGION AND STILL AWAITING SLIGHTLY DRIER AIRMASS TO PUSH INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. BUT POTENTIAL HIGH CLOUDS WILL LIKELY PREVENT ANY WIDESPREAD SUB-FREEZING TEMPS AND WILL LIKELY KEEP ANY FROST FORMATION MORE PATCHY IN NATURE SO AT THIS TIME DO NOT EXPECT ANY FROST AND/OR FREEZE HEADLINES WITH THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE.
A GRADUAL DECREASE IN CLOUDS SHOULD OCCUR FROM MID TO LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILD INTO THE AREA. UPPER LEVEL AND SFC RIDGING IS GRADUALLY BUILDING INTO THE OH VALLEY AND APPALACHIAN REGION. INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S FOR LOCATIONS OUTSIDE OF THE HIGH TERRAIN. SFC AND UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BRING CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT AND LIGHT WINDS. THIS PATTERN IS FAVORABLE FOR A SMALL TO MODERATE RIDGE/VALLEY SPLIT. VALLEYS TONIGHT SHOULD REACH THE LOW TO MID 20S WITH RIDGES NEAR THE 30 DEGREE MARK. THE INCREASING GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO WINDS OF AROUND 10 MPH ON SATURDAY FROM THE ESCARPMENT WEST AND ON THE HIGHER AND MORE EXPOSED RIDGES OF SOUTHEAST KY.
656 AM EST FRI JAN 16 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TODAY.
A rain/snow mix is likely, though there is the potential for west central Montana valleys to see light freezing drizzle this morning, which could be a sneaky travel impact.
POST FRONTAL SHOWERS WILL DECREASE TODAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA.
603 AM CST FRI JAN 16 2015 ***556 AM AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION AT BOTTOM*** A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDED SOUTH INTO THE NORTHLAND FROM HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN MANITOBA EARLY THIS MORNING. THE HIGH WAS PROVIDING CLEAR/PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA. THEN IT WILL BE ON AN OF LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL TRACK ALONG OR JUST NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL VEER TO EAST. WE ADDED SOME PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE/FLURRIES TO SOUTHERN/WESTERN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL WAA STRENGTHENS. THE NAM CONTINUES TO SPIT OUT A LITTLE QPF AND SOME OF THE HIGH RES MODELS SHOW INCREASING ECHOES THIS AFTERNOON. SOUNDINGS SUPPORT FREEZING DRIZZLE FOR MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH THE NIGHT.
907 AM EST FRI JAN 16 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
/ISSUED 318 AM CST Fri Jan 16 2015/ Southwest winds will become more established across the region today as surface lee troughing strengthens and extends south through eastern NM/TX Panhandle. Meanwhile, an upper trough currently entering the Pac NW will dive SE through the Central Plains Saturday, sending a dry cold front through the CWA Saturday night.
WITH SNOW CHANGING TO RAIN IN THE LOWER VALLEYS /INCLUDING THE TREASURE VALLEY/ BY AROUND NOON. WEAK SHORT WAVE RIDGING WILL PROVIDE A BRIEF DRY PERIOD ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT.
614 AM EST FRI JAN 16 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN A WIND SHIFT TO NORTHWESTERLY TONIGHT AT ALL THREE SITES. ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH WILL PROGRESSIVELY PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE PANHANDLES SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. DOWNSLOPING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE BY THIS AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT RESULTING IN BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH NORTHERLY WINDS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS.
638 AM EST FRI JAN 16 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION TODAY.
454 AM CST FRI JAN 16 2015 WATER VAPOR SATELLITE DATA INDICATES THAT THE MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WHICH WAS LARGELY RESPONSIBLE FOR YESTERDAY'S WINTRY PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO SHIFT EASTWARD OFF THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST. THIS -- ALONG WITH THE ADVECTION OF DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION -- HAS ALLOWED FOR THE EROSION OF LOW STRATUS CLOUDS AND SUBSEQUENT DEVELOPMENT OF AREAS OF FREEZING FOG. HAVE ADDED PATCHY FREEZING FOG TO THE FORECAST FOR LOCAL RIVER VALLEYS ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT. EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY.
MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS PUSHING OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHEAST U. COAST WILL LEAD TO DRIER AND COOLER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION TODAY. NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES COOLER THAN NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S.
418 AM CST FRI JAN 16 2015 MID LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH MOISTURE SOUTHWARD TODAY WITH DRIER AIR AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA.
VERY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE LOWEST 12-15K FT WL PERSIST.
651 AM EST FRI JAN 16 2015 AVIATION A COLD FRONT IS DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN EARLY THIS MORNING. WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S EXPECTED.
WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR A FEW HOURS IN GARETT AND TUCKER. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND WAA WILL ALLOW FOR A WARMER DAY SATURDAY WITH A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN.
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH FROM NORTH TO SOUTH TUESDAY MORNING. SUBSTANTIAL MID-UPPER CLOUD SHIELD MOVING THROUGH FLAT RIDGING ALOFT OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND SPILLING OVERHEAD INTO PA. THE COLD FRONT OF THIS SYSTEM MAY HAVE A SLIGHT DIP IN IT AS IT COMES ACROSS THE AREA. BUT WILL LIKELY RISE INTO THE 50S TO NEAR 60F IN THE SOUTH BEFORE THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES.
657 AM CDT MON MAR 16 2015 WEAK LOW CENTERED NEAR KPIR WILL HELP DRAW COOLER AIR IN FROM NORTH DAKOTA. WITH THE HIGH CENTERED OVERHEAD LIMITING MIXING.
704 AM EDT MON MAR 16 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED TO THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY.
721 AM EDT MON MAR 16 2015 VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHEAST. AND WINDS AT TRI MAY APPROACH 10 KTS AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.
LAST NIGHTS FRONT HAS STALLED SOUTH OF OUR AREA AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS OVER THE AREA. WITH A COOLER AIR MASS OVER THE AREA TEMPERATURES ARE STARTING OUT OVER 10 DEGREES COOLER IN PLACES THAN YESTERDAY. AREAS IN THE SOUTH UNDER THE HEAVIER CLOUD COVER WILL BE 5-8 DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. FURTHER NORTH UNDER THE CLEARER SKIES TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY OR A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER. WEAK UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER WASHINGTON AND NORTHERN OREGON TODAY. LAST NIGHT'S COLD FRONT HAS STALLED OVER SOUTHERN OREGON EARLY THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT RESULTING IN A GRADUAL DECREASE IN SHOWER CHANCES.
WHICH MAY THIN WITH TIME AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS N ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS/LOWER MS VALLEY. /ISSUED 509 AM CDT MON MAR 16 2015/ A COMBINATION OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NWRD FROM THE GULF HAS RESULTED IN THIS WARMER AND DRIER PATTERN THE LAST FEW DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB COMFORTABLY INTO THE 70S THIS AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER RIDGE HOLDS SERVE ACROSS THE REGION. AN EVEN WARMER DAY IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY WITH UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S AREA WIDE WITH INCREASING S/SW FLOW AHEAD OF OUR NEXT RAIN PRODUCER. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SLOWLY BREAK DOWN AS A CLOSED UPPER LOW STILL SPINNING SOUTH OF BAJA THIS MORNING FINALLY BEGINS TO OPEN UP AND EJECT NEWRD ACROSS NRN MEXICO AND BIG BEND COUNTRY INTO CNTRL TX.
A DEFORMATION ZONE BETWEEN AN UPPER LOW OVER WESTERN MEXICO AND AN UPPER RIDGE OVER OUR AREA WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE A BROKEN CIRRUS DECK THROUGH THIS EVENING.
640 AM CDT MON MAR 16 2015 A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM SOUTHWEST ONTARIO INTO SRN MONTANA WILL MOVE INTO IA THIS AFTERNOON. AND PASS SOUTH OF THE STATE TONIGHT HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST TUE.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA 06-12Z AND BRING A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH ALONG WIND INCREASING WINDS. TEMPS WILL SOAR THIS AFTN ACROSS W/NW AND NRN OK THIS AFTN AS SW WINDS INCREASE OFF THE WRN HIGH PLAINS AHEAD OF A STOUT COLD FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE AFTN. MID-RANGE GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE H500 TROUGH OFF WRN MEXICO E/NE INTO THE PERMIAN BASIN THROUGH TUE NIGHT. AS THE UPPER LOW MERGES WITH THE PRIMARY H500 FLOW. AN H500 SHORT WAVE WILL STALL OUT S/SW OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WITH OUR CHANCE FOR EXITING INTO TX AS A COLD FRONT BY SAT.
708 AM EDT MON MAR 16 2015 PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING. CEILINGS WILL REMAIN ABOVE 10K FT AS THE LOW LEVEL AIRMASS IS QUITE DRY. IT WILL BE MUCH COOLER ON TUESDAY AS DIGGING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ADVANCES INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. WILL BE CALLING FOR HIGHS PREDOMINATELY IN THE LOWER 40S. SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE (1030 MB) MOVING OVER CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT WILL SET US UP FOR COLD NIGHT WITH FAVORABLE RADIATING CONDITIONS.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND MOVE EAST TONIGHT AS AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY AND BRING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MAINLY NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO AND NORTHWEST DOUGLAS COUNTY. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE REGION TODAY BRINGING AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN ALONG WITH MVFR CIGS AND VIS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS.
727 AM EDT MON MAR 16 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL TODAY BEFORE SHIFTING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND STALL SOUTH OF THE AREA WHILE A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH.
1246 PM EDT MON MAR 16 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED TO THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY.
1203 PM EDT MON MAR 16 2015 A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO NEAR THE SOUTHERN TIP OF LAKE MICHIGAN THIS EVENING. AS IT MOVES EASTWARD OVERNIGHT IT WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO NORTHERN OHIO AND NW PA TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
912 AM PDT MON MAR 16 2015 HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT IS WEAKENING TODAY. AND WILL BE REPLACED BE A WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGH THROUGH MID WEEK.
1021 AM CDT MON MAR 16 2015 WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S JUST NORTH OF THE STATE LINE DECIDED TO LEAN TOWARD THE NAM AND GO A FEW DEGREES COOLER ON TEMPS TODAY. WEAK LOW CENTERED NEAR KPIR WILL HELP DRAW COOLER AIR IN FROM NORTH DAKOTA. WITH THE HIGH CENTERED OVERHEAD LIMITING MIXING.
950 AM PDT MON MAR 16 2015 TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THROUGH MID WEEK BUT WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.
931 AM EDT MON MAR 16 2015 A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO NEAR THE SOUTHERN TIP OF LAKE MICHIGAN THIS EVENING. AS IT MOVES EASTWARD OVERNIGHT IT WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO NORTHERN OHIO AND NW PA TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 77 52 75 46 / 0 0 10 10 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 74 48 69 40 / 0 0 20 10 OAK RIDGE, TN 74 49 70 40 / 0 0 20 10 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 72 43 68 34 / 0 0 20 10.
BUT A COLD FRONT WILL TEMPER THEM AND BRING SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE MORNING SOUNDING SUPPORTS THE HIGH TEMP PROGNOSIS OF THE LATEST LAMP GUIDANCE WITH HEALTHY MIXING ANTICIPATED. COLD FRONT WILL TAKE MOST OF THE NIGHT TO CROSS THE AREA.
FURTHER INTO THE WARMER LOW LEVEL AIRMASS. REMAINDER OF THE REGION WILL COOL BELOW FREEZING AFTER THE PRECIP ENDS. OVERALL THOUGH SEEMS AS IF MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE WARMER AIR AND ONLY VERY LIGHT STUFF IN THE COLDER AIR FOR -SN.
1033 AM EDT MON MAR 16 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY RETREAT SOUTH OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND WILL STALL SOUTH OF THE AREA WHILE A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH.
Light freezing drizzle has also developed in the Great Falls area this morning, so have added it as well to much of the plains areas. Models indicate at least scattered showers should persist across much of southwest Montana during the afternoon as the cold front pushes a bit farther south into that area, so have increased afternoon POPs there as well. Surface cold front has pushed southward through central Montana but will likely stall out in northern portions of southwest Montana.
507 AM MDT MON MAR 16 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE TODAY. HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD AGAIN INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS MORE HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE ROTATES AROUND THE TOP OF THE RIDGE AND INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTH. IN SPITE OF THE HIGH CLOUDS. ON TUE A NORTHERN BRANCH COLD FRONT WILL PUSH UP AGAINST THE FRONT RANGE TO OUR EAST. ALSO MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO BE DRAWN UP FROM THE SOUTH AS THE SOUTHERN BAJA LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OPENS UP AND MOVES INTO CHIHUAHUA. THE INCREASED CLOUDS MAY SHAVE A COUPLE DEGREES OFF THE HIGH TEMPERATURES.
THE REMNANTS ARE CURRENTLY ON THE EDGE OF OUR ATLANTIC WATERS WELL SOUTH OF THE LOWER KEYS AND THE DRY TORTUGAS.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL PREVAIL OVER THE REGION TODAY FOR DRIER AND SUNNIER CONDITIONS. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA TONIGHT AND THEN MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY.
/ISSUED 411 AM CDT MON MAR 16 2015/ UPPER LOW CHURNING ACROSS BAJA SUR THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO USHER IN MID-HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY. WILL SEE TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE 40S ON THE CAPROCK WHILE LOCALES IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS EAST OF THE CAPROCK ESCARPMENT REMAIN IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.
MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS AND SNOW NORTH THIS MORNING HIGHLIGHT THE SHORT TERM FORECAST. WITH COLD HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER CENTRAL ALBERTA AND SASKATCHEWAN. AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HAS DEVELOPED AND THE HIGH HAS PUSHED SOUTH. AND WINDS OVER NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA HAVE BECOME NORTHERLY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. WHILE TEMPERATURES WERE STILL IN THE LOWER 50S SOUTHWEST AND FAR SOUTH CENTRAL. ALONG THE COLD FRONT. WITH THE BEST/STRONGEST FRONTOGENESIS DURING THE MORNING HOURS AND MORE CONCENTRATED OVER NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA - MAINLY ALONG AND EITHER SIDE OF THE HIGHWAY 2 CORRIDOR FROM WILLISTON TO MINOT TO RUGBY. THIS AFTERNOON THE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION BEGIN TO DECREASE WITH THE COLD FRONT EXITING THE STATE TO THE SOUTH. DECREASING CLOUDS TONIGHT AS THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER SETTLES OVER EASTERN MONTANA AND WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
1003 AM EDT MON MAR 16 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED TO THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY.
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN NC AND VA EARLY TODAY AND RESULT IN WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF A DRY COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY EVENING. A SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MASS FILTERED INTO THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT BEHIND A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. LEE SIDE TROUGHING WILL DEVELOP UNDER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. COOLEST IN THE NORTHEAST/EAST (COOLER RESIDUAL AIR MASS) AND THE NORTHWEST (OROGRAPHIC CIRRUS). AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT THE MODELS SUGGEST WILL CROSS CENTRAL NC TUE EVENING. AND PROBABLY UP TO SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER IN THE SANDHILLS AND SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL COASTAL PLAIN - IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. THE MAIN STORY WILL BE THE RETURN OF SHARPLY COOLER TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT. IN THE WAKE OF THE DRY BACK-DOOR COLD FRONT LATE TUESDAY.
REMNANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS NOW SLID INTO SOUTH FLORIDA THIS MORNING TAKING WITH IT THE SHOWERS THAT WERE OVER THE ATLANTIC EARLY THIS MORNING AS WELL AS MOST OF THE LOW-MID CLOUDS OVERALL. CONTINUING WARM TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S ALONG THE COAST AND MID 80S INLAND.
A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH WAS LOCATED OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS THIS MORNING. BUT A BETTER DEFINED INVERTED TROUGH WAS ANALYZED AT 925 MB ALONG THE LOWER TO MIDDLE TEXAS COAST AT 12Z. THIS LOW LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE INLAND THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS MOVING INLAND ALSO. DRIER AIR TO THE EAST OF THIS TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE INTO THE COASTAL AREAS WITH DIMINISHING RAIN CHANCES FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
DID TWEEK HOURLY TEMPS AS WELL AS SOME AREAS IN DVL BASIN ARE 1-2 DEG WARMER THAN WHAT WE HAD AND THIS LED TO LESS SNOW IN THE GRIDS AND MORE LIGHT RAIN. OVERALL THOUGH SEEMS AS IF MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE WARMER AIR AND ONLY VERY LIGHT STUFF IN THE COLDER AIR FOR -SN.
IN OREGON THE SURFACE FRONT WILL TURN BACK NORTH TODAY AS A WARM FRONT AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH COMES IN FROM THE PACIFIC. LATE TONIGHT THE WARM FRONT WILL LIE E-W ACROSS CENTRAL IDAHO. A NEW COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM BAKER COUNTY SWWD TO NERN CALIF. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO SWRN ID TUESDAY MORNING WITH SHOWERS.
BUT A COLD FRONT WILL TEMPER THEM AND BRING SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. STRONG WARM ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF LOW PRESSURE DIGGING OVER THE HUDSON BAY. THE HIGH TEMP PROGNOSIS WAS RAISED USING OVERNIGHT LAMP GUIDANCE WITH HEALTHY MIXING ANTICIPATED. COLD FRONT WILL TAKE MOST OF THE NIGHT TO CROSS THE AREA.
1000 AM CDT MON MAR 16 2015 HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ENTRENCHED ACROSS EASTERN TEXAS INTO NORTHERN ALABAMA. BY GIVING US MORE OF A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT THE LOW LEVELS. 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE EVEN WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WHERE STRONG LAPSE RATES WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. AK /ISSUED 332 AM CDT MON MAR 16 2015/ A GENERALLY MEAN AMPLITUDE RIDGE PREVAILS ACROSS THE CONUS WITH A CUTOFF MID-LEVEL LOW MEANDERING OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA WHILE AMPLIFIED RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL BE THE DOMINANT PLAYER FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
959 AM EDT MON MAR 16 2015 A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION THIS MORNING WILL PROVIDE INCREASING CLOUDS AND DRY WEATHER TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY ALONG WITH MILDER TEMPERATURES. A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS WILL BRING SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. EXCEPTION WILL BE THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM AS THE WARM FRONT NEVER REALLY GETS THERE, SO TEMPS WILL RUN ONLY A FEW DEGREES ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. FOR TONIGHT, UPPER RIDGE SLIDES TO OUR EAST AS A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER JAMES BAY SLOWLY SINKS SOUTHEASTWARD. THE HIGHER SUMMITS OF THE NORTHERN GREENS COULD SEE UP TO 6".
620 AM CDT MON MAR 16 2015 FOR 12Z TAFS /ISSUED 332 AM CDT MON MAR 16 2015/ A GENERALLY MEAN AMPLITUDE RIDGE PREVAILS ACROSS THE CONUS WITH A CUTOFF MID-LEVEL LOW MEANDERING OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA WHILE AMPLIFIED RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. 77 /ISSUED 332 AM CDT MON MAR 16 2015/ A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL BE THE DOMINANT PLAYER FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
FLURRIES HAVE JUST ABOUT ENDED OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON AS SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST AND MOISTURE BRIEFLY THINS UNDER BRISK NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. WHICH HAVE DIMINISHED SINCE THIS MORNING OVER THE HIGHER PEAKS. EXPECT ANOTHER WARM AND BREEZY DAY AS LEE TROUGH PUSHES EASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS. WITH TEMPERATURES DEEP INTO THE 60S ACROSS THE LOWER ARKANSAS VALLEY.
930 PM CST MON FEB 2 2015 SURFACE WINDS HAVE BEGUN TO SHIFT AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST AS HIGH PRESSURE WORKS ITS WAY EAST OF NORTH TEXAS. READINGS HAVE ALREADY FALLEN INTO THE 30S AND WE SHOULD STILL SEE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF NORTH TEXAS FALL BELOW FREEZING BY SUNRISE TUESDAY. JUST SOME HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED FROM THE UPPER LOW OVER MEXICO WITH ALL RAIN REMAINING SOUTH OF THE REGION. TEMPERATURES FELL BELOW FREEZING THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE CWA. AN UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN BAJA WILL MOVE TOWARD SOUTH TEXAS ON TUESDAY.
SLICK ROADS ACROSS NORTHWEST MONTANA THIS EVENING THROUGH A Pacific storm system will clip northwest Montana tonight, bringing snow, rain, freezing rain, and patchy dense fog at times. Valleys, including Flathead and Missoula, will also be slick with a mix of refreezing snowmelt, freezing rain, snow, and fog deposition. Patchy dense fog and freezing fog will follow closely behind the precipitation, limiting visibility to less than one quarter mile at times. Conditions will improve by midday Tuesday, however some stubborn patches of freezing fog may remain through the afternoon.