Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
The northern stream short wave trough that will try to push a cool front into north Alabama Thursday will begin to wash out by Thursday night.
1146 PM CDT WED JUN 1 2016 While winds had shifted more northwesterly across the forecast area for a while now, it appears the actual cold front still resides in the forecast area. Cold front is roughly along the I-55 corridor early this afternoon, with some scattered convection firing nearby from Lincoln to just north of St. Any stronger storms that occur will be during the next 2-3 hours or so ahead of the front, as most of the high resolution guidance largely has any showers/storms out of the area by about 6 pm. Following today's cold frontal passage, westerly flow aloft and drier air will move into central IL for the end of the work week. Expect dry conditions, slightly cooler temperatures with highs around 80, and drier dewpoints mainly mid-upper 50s bringing humidity down to comfortable levels.
cannot rule out some small to medium sized hail with the freezing level down around 12kft.
Heading into tomorrow, an upper low will begin to cut off over Texas leading to more prolific rains in areas to our west that do not need it.
The upper low over the TX/NM border will slowly move across the state tonight and Thursday. The global models are keeping the rain and thunderstorms in place through the afternoon and into Thursday night as the upper low meanders overhead.
1128 PM EDT WED JUN 1 2016 Warm front will move northeast across the area this evening. A cold front will follow closely behind. The cold front will move east of the area Thursday afternoon.
1110 PM CDT WED JUN 1 2016 Latest water vapor satellite imagery showing upper level low over southern Ontario and northern Minnesota. Latest visible satellite imagery indicating stratocumulus cloud deck wrapping around upper level low into southern Minnesota. 12z GFS/NAM/ECMWF are in good agreement in moving upper level low into southeast/eastern Ontario by 18z Thursday. Stratocumulus cloud deck will continue to wrap around the upper level low and the northern half of forecast area tonight into early Thursday morning.
1014 PM EDT WED JUN 1 2016 High pressure will slowly move to the east tonight and Thursday. Low pressure will track into Quebec Thursday night bringing an occluded front across our area.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 70 88 68 88 / 30 50 40 40 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 68 87 67 86 / 30 60 50 40 Oak Ridge, TN 68 87 65 85 / 30 70 50 50 Tri Cities Airport, TN 65 83 64 82 / 30 60 50 50.
An upper level low continues to spin across Mexico and is seemingly digging further south as it slowly makes eastward progress. Short term guidance indicates that precipitation will gradually taper off late tonight and the early morning hours on Thursday as the upper level low moves east. However with the slow progression, and poor handling of the models for this week, the current timing and QPF may end up on the low side so will continue to monitor this evening.
Rain has lifted north for the most part at KLBB and KPVW and should remain VFR unless more showers and thunderstorms develop later this evening on the backside of the upper level low slowly moving ENE across West Texas. /issued 349 PM CDT WED JUN 1 2016/ Excessive rainfall rates in excess of 2 inches per hour continue with embedded thunderstorms rotating around a multiple vorticity center, low pressure system located across the western South Plains this afternoon. Current upper level low over northern Mexico will slide into south/central Texas and remain nearly stationary through the early portion of the weekend.
744 PM EDT WED JUN 1 2016 A weak pressure trough will remain in the forecast area during the rest of the week. A slow moving cold front will approach over the weekend.
Ample boundary layer moisture and calm winds beneath the ridge axis is currently causing fog development along river valleys and over the Plains. As lee side troughing develops, winds being forced through the gap areas in Livingston, Big Timber, and Harlowton will gust 50 to 55 mph likely into the afternoon on Monday.
A wind shift to the north will accompany a cold front for most terminals. /issued 945 PM CDT Sat Oct 29 2016/ Cold front will continue to move across parts of the region tonight bringing some slightly cooler air to the area.
Much of the rain associated with the cold front is over the Camas Prairie to the Central Panhandle Mtns at points southeastward. Precip chances will increase across much of the region through the day tomorrow as a warm front approaches. /SVH 06Z TAFS: Light rainfall will linger over the southern to central ID Panhandle along a slow moving cold front tonight. A warm front will then push up during the day on Sunday.
Further offshore and across the remainder of the Gulf, a modest pressure gradient continues between the high and broad low pressure across the NW Caribbean.
High pressure will move by to our north tonight and then be over the northeast U. That cloud cover should make Monday a cooler day than today.
Upper air analysis this morning showed a broad ridge over most of the country. At the surface, high pressure was centered to the northeast. The upper level ridge will remain in control during this period with little change in the weather.
A cold front across extreme northern Indiana to northern Missouri will push south across Indiana today and will stall near the Tennessee Kentucky border tonight as high pressure moves into the great lakes. The high pressure system will move on to the east Monday night and low pressure moving into the upper midwest will pull a warm front north across our region.
Another trough will lift northward across the area this afternoon through Monday for more rain across Western Washington.
345 AM CDT Sun Oct 30 2016 Much of the CONUS will be under broad upper level ridging today, with the ridge axis extending northward through the Plains. A trough along the Pacific Coast will push eastward, while weaker troughing from the Great Lakes southward into Tennessee Valley crosses the Appalachians. Other than a very slight increase in high clouds across the far north, do not expect any effect on conditions from the Great Lakes trough. It will very quickly pull to the east tonight, as ridging builds across the southeastern CONUS. The ridge will strengthen and amplify up the East Coast through midweek.
651 AM EDT Sun Oct 30 2016 A cold front will push south through the area today and tonight, bringing a chance of showers. As high pressure travels east through the Great Lakes Monday into Monday night, the old frontal boundary will move back northeast as a warm front. Mild readings continue this morning ahead of a cold front to our north. Given sufficient heating along and ahead of the cold front, there could be a rumble of thunder over the southern two thirds of the forecast area this afternoon into early evening. The cold front will push south of the Ohio region tonight. It will be much colder by Monday morning with lows ranging from the lower 40s north to near 50 far south.
Dew points well into the 50s will be commonplace today, with maybe some low 60s creeping in by this evening as a cold front lays out and makes a passage across the Ohio river valley. High pressure migrates across the Great Lakes, in the wake of the cold front's Ohio river valley passage.
A cold front crosses late today and tonight. It returns as a warm front Monday night.
Scattered -shra will exit southeast WI early this morning as weak low level trof tied to weakly enhanced forcing from passing coupled upper jets.
159 AM EDT Sun Oct 30 2016 Eastward moving low pressure over southwest Quebec will take a cold front across northern OH/nw PA late tonight.
High pressure continues to exert its influence on area weather. Mostly clear skies today should only be marred locally by early morning stratus as off and some cirrus clouds being stretched along the upper level deformation zone stretching from the upper level low over the western Gulf and the upper level trof approaching the southeastern states. Overnight lows should range from the low to mid 60s along the coast to low to mid 50s in the interior.
Unfortunately this front will bring neither rain or cloud cover, nor cooler weather, and unseasonably warm weather will continue as upper ridging builds across Texas and the far southern plains Sunday into Monday. As such, expect highs to be in the low to mid 80s in most places, except maybe some upper 70s at higher elevations, on Sunday and Monday.
Passage of cold front last night has produced light northerly winds for the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles. Have chosen to hold temperatures on the lower side but certainty of outcome is on the low side. Southwest winds resume on monday as lee trof deepens, producing another very warm day with highs in the mid-80s to lower 90s.
332 AM EDT Sun Oct 30 2016 Rain showers will track through the region today along a cold front with temperatures falling or remaining steady in the 40s and 50s.
An upper level trough and associated cold front will move through the area Monday.
An easterly flow aloft over the region will gradually become more northwesterly through today as a trough passes through the northeast and a ridge builds over the northern Gulf coast region. This ridge will continue to shift eastward tonight and will be centered over the eastern Gulf and Florida on Monday. At the surface, high pressure currently over the southeast will be replaced by another high moving into the northeast through Monday, with ridging extending southward over the area.
252 AM CDT Sun Oct 30 2016 A cold front will exit southeast KS early this morning leaving widespread stratus in it's wake. Low clouds are expected to mix out toward mid day but an airmass change will keep temperatures closer to climate normals with highs ranging from the mid and upper 60s across portions of central KS to the lower 70s near the OK state line. Light east-northeast winds will return to the south becoming breezy across central KS late tonight as low pressure deepens over the Northern High Plains. Breezy southerly winds will spread east across the area on Monday helping to drive temperatures back into the low to mid 80s and a few records may fall once again.
652 AM EDT Sun Oct 30 2016 A cold front will bring showers to the area today. High pressure will then return dry and warm conditions through midweek. A cold front will begin to slowly cross the north shortly after dawn. Kept the highest PoPs right along the front and put in a mention of isolated thunder in the afternoon, due to increased low level instability. The passing cold front will lead to a tight gradient in high temperatures north to south today, but highs will generally be above-average. Scattered showers will linger across the far south this evening as the front moves into the Mid-Atlantic region and the upper level trough swings into Eastern Pennsylvania.
338 AM PDT Sun Oct 30 2016 A low pressure system will move through Central CA today, and while the more significant precip will be found up north, scattered showers are in the forecast for this afternoon and evening, with the best chance over the coastal slopes of the San Bernardino County mountains.
combined with a much cooler airmass in place behind yesterdays cold front. will result in a noticably cooler afternoon across the local area. While noticably cooler. a fairly nice afternoon is in store as generally light southerly breezes will return as the local area will be sandwiched in between low pressure approaching the northern Rockies and high pressure to our east.
Although upper ridging over W TX is near records at 200mb over East TX the 850 heights/temps are only slight above normal (2 year return interval).
400 AM EDT Sun Oct 30 2016 Low pressure will move out of the area into the Canadian Maritimes early today.
The rest of the weekend will see some cooler high temperatures in the east but little change west as above average temperatures persist.
Taking a closer look, high pressure along with a few breaks in the clouds was located over northwestern ND. However, a few breaks in the clouds at the right time and cooler readings will be possible. The main concern with this low, however, will be the strong winds it will bring to areas along and west of the James valley.
153 AM EDT Sun Oct 30 2016 High pressure will build across the area through Sunday. A dry cold front will cross the region Monday with renewed high pressure ridging from the northeast through midweek.
340 AM CDT Sun Oct 30 2016 An area of high pressure over the region will bring one more cool, cloudy day for the eastern half of the CWA. Return flow will develop over the western CWA with temperatures reaching the upper 50s, to the lower 60s.
402 AM EDT Sun Oct 30 2016 Early this morning, high pressure centered to the southeast of the area remained in control with only some high clouds drifting by from time to time in most locations. Meanwhile southerly to southwest winds are observed on the ridgetops and in some of the more open areas. Temperatures are mild for late October with upper 40s to lower 50s currently observed in these valley locations with low to mid 60s on the ridges. At the same town, the cold front becoming increasingly sheared will drop into the Ohio Valley region later today and into the region tonight.
change is on the way by the middle of the week! Ridging centered over Texas (depicted well on WV Imagery) will continue the much above normal temperatures along with dry conditions today. The ridge will edge east on Halloween as a strong trough moves into the Pacific NW/Northern CA.
Weakening high pressure along the Mid-Atlc seaboard this morning is forecast flatten from E-W over the next 24H. Tail end of mid-level trough drops through region early Mon followed by anticyclone building over or just west of CWA by Tue. Dry Mon as moisture over southern peninsula is shunted farther south in wake of trough.
Given the low level moisture in place. Based on the soundings showing the low level moisture becoming less deep between 21Z and 00Z I am thinking that would be the most favorable period for thinning clouds but by then we will not have much time to warm.
00 UTC surface analysis shows an area of high pressure centered just off the GA coast in the Western Atlantic. In the upper levels, a ridge will remain over the region. At the Surface, high pressure will remain over the Southeast U.
335 AM EDT Sun Oct 30 2016 A cold front will push south through the area today and tonight, bringing a chance of showers. As high pressure travels east through the Great Lakes Monday into Monday night, the old frontal boundary will move back northeast as a warm front. Mild readings continue this morning ahead of a cold front to our north. Given sufficient heating along and ahead of the cold front, there could be a rumble of thunder over the southern two thirds of the forecast area this afternoon into early evening. The cold front will push south of the Ohio region tonight. It will be much colder by Monday morning with lows ranging from the lower 40s north to near 50 far south.
Even with high pressure building in, it will be difficult to break up this stratus layer. We may see some peaks of clearing skies later tonight as upper level ridging builds in mainly west of the Mississippi River. High temperatures today will be on the cool side under the cloud cover, with high ranging from from the mid 40s over northern Wisconsin to the lower 50s across northeast Iowa. The cloud cover may keep overnight lows a littler warmer than forecast. Breezy south/southwest winds will develop as low pressure moves across southern ontario dragging a cold front across the local area.
Today Through Monday Night An upper ridge centered over west Texas will move east today and tonight will be over east Texas. Northwest flow over Arkansas will become zonal by Monday and southwest Monday night as the high center slides east to Florida. A cold front in western Oklahoma will move east today and enter Arkansas this afternoon. Highs today will be in the lower to mid 80s and lows tonight will be in the mid 50s to lower 60s. More of the same is expected for Monday with temperatures a few degrees warmer.
High pressure control over the area will be short lived however.
640 AM EDT Sun Oct 30 2016 Low pressure will move out of the area into the Canadian Maritimes early today.
659 AM EDT Sun Oct 30 2016 Rain showers will track through the region today along a cold front with temperatures falling or remaining steady in the 40s and 50s.
204 AM EDT Sun Oct 30 2016 A cold front will bring showers to the area today. High pressure will then return dry and warm conditions through midweek. The highest probabilities will be kept over the far north. Kept the highest PoPs right along the surface boundary today and put in a mention of isolated thunder in the afternoon, due to increased low level instability. The passing cold front will lead to a tight gradient in high temperatures north to south today, but highs will generally be above-average. Scattered showers will linger across the far south this evening as the front moves into the Mid-Atlantic region and the upper level trough swings into Eastern Pennsylvania.
High pressure remains firmly entrenched across the tri-state region, yielding quiet and calm conditions.
354 AM CDT Sun Oct 30 2016 A broad and not overly amplified UA ridge persisted across the southern U. In fact, temperatures may near/equate record warmth for a few locations this today and tomorrow which is indicative of the presence of the aforementioned UA ridge.
High pressure will continue to move eastward into the western Great Lakes region today, becoming centered in the vicinity of the Twin Cities by 21Z today. High pressure will continue to move off to the east/southeast tonight. Low pressure will quickly advance into the western Dakotas by 12Z Monday as we transition from northwest flow aloft to southwest flow. Will have the highest POP's in the north.
Cooler with Night and Morning Low Clouds Possible on the Plains. Behind it, a surge of cooler air will settle south across the plains. On Sunday, temperatures will be a little cooler over the area as the result of the disturbance that moved through today. Southwest breezes will begin to increase over the high country in the afternoon ahead of an approaching disturbance. Winds across the lower elevations should generally remain under 20 mph throughout the day. Nonetheless, locally strong winds will occur over the higher elevations of the Junkins fire starting Sunday evening and last into Monday morning, and will gradually weaken during the afternoon Monday.
A cold front will cross the Mid Atlantic this evening.
407 AM EDT Sun Oct 30 2016 A cold front will move across the area this morning, clearing the area by this afternoon. High pressure will build in behind the cold front and settle over the Great Lakes for Monday.
The broad upper level ridging and strong southwesterly winds, coupled with the mostly clear skies have worked to push temperatures well above normal today. With record temps a couple of degrees warmer tomorrow than today, we should stay a few degrees short of the records. As the cold front swings through, lows tomorrow night will be cooler than tonight as well, dipping into the lower to mid 50s.
Cold front continues to make its way through the forecast area and should clear it completely by 00z.
Pattern synopsis and forecast: Shallow troughing aloft working across the western Great Lakes this morning, north of a frontal boundary across far srn lower Michigan. Meanwhile, the low level air mass continues to cool from north to south, and despite somewhat shallow moisture under an inversion, starting to see some light returns on MQT radar, as well as Rogers City ob showing light rains. Further upstream across the Dakotas, high pressure was centered. The low level air mass will continue to cool, and sufficient overlake instability develops across the remainder of the CWA. Temperatures also start rising in lower level WAA, eating away at the lower level stratocumulus.
118 AM EDT Sun Oct 30 2016 A cold front will bring showers to the area today. High pressure will then return dry and warm conditions through midweek. The highest probabilities will be kept over the far north. Kept the highest PoPs right along the surface boundary today and put in a mention of isolated thunder in the afternoon, due to increased low level instability. The passing cold front will lead to a tight gradient in high temperatures north to south today, but highs will generally be above-average. Scattered showers will linger across the far south this evening as the front moves into the Mid-Atlantic region and the upper level trough swings into Eastern Pennsylvania.
412 AM EDT Sun Oct 30 2016 A cold front will bring showers to the area today. High pressure will then return dry and warm conditions through midweek. A cold front will begin to slowly cross the north shortly after dawn. Kept the highest PoPs right along the front and put in a mention of isolated thunder in the afternoon, due to increased low level instability. The passing cold front will lead to a tight gradient in high temperatures north to south today, but highs will generally be above-average. Scattered showers will linger across the far south this evening as the front moves into the Mid-Atlantic region and the upper level trough swings into Eastern Pennsylvania.
154 AM EDT Sun Oct 30 2016 Dry tonight with high pressure holding on, and above normal temperatures again Sunday.
High pressure is located across western ND. warmer air will build back into the area as frontal boundary slowly lifts back northeast as a warm front. Low clouds and some fog will hang on in the morning across the SD plains before the warm front finally pushes through.
244 AM MDT Sun Oct 30 2016 Plenty of mid and hi cloud streaming into the area from the west as as the southern streams waves north ahead of the strong trough along the CA coast. It will carry with it a weak cold front that will drag over the northern half of the area Monday afternoon.
346 AM CDT Sun Oct 30 2016 A cold frontal boundary extending from central IL down into eastern KS will continue to push to the SE throughout the day placing the area in much cooler temperatures just slightly above normal in the mid 60s. A low level jet develops over Kansas ahead of the front and eventually push into our CWA with strong warm air advection allowing temperatures to rise back up into the low 80s and create breezy conditions by Monday afternoon.
324 AM CDT Sun Oct 30 2016 Cool high pressure will prevail across the region today with northerly winds becoming southeast through time. Southerly flow tonight allows the low level moisture to move right back into the area, so any clearing we might see earlier in the evening should fill back in with low clouds again Monday morning, which will again erode with time during the day Monday. While it will be warmer back into the 70s mostly for Monday, have cut back highs a couple of degrees from previous forecast due to the expected morning cloud cover.
552 AM EDT Sun Oct 30 2016 Low pressure will move out of the area into the Canadian Maritimes early today.
Broad upper level ridge over the central plains will travel eastward into the southeast plains late Sunday into Monday suppressing all the deep moisture south into the western Carribean and filtering in much drier air into S Florida. As this high settles over the region, ne flow returns bringing afternoon breeze through the middle of the week with pleasant weather across S Florida.
Warm and dry conditions will continue today as high pressure will continue to dominate the pattern across the Southeast. Tonight, a cold front will push south of the Ohio River into KY/WV, but any precip with it will remain north, with only some increase in clouds for SW VA/NE TN.
309 AM CDT Sun Oct 30 2016 An upper level ridge of high pressure will shift over the Mid South through the first part of this week.
128 AM EDT Sun Oct 30 2016 High pressure will prevail through the weekend. A dry backdoor cold front will then move through the area on Monday, followed by high pressure returning for the middle of the upcoming week.