Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Weak mid level ridging continues to extend from the western Gulf of Mexico through southern and eastern AL and the western FL panhandle this afternoon. The upper level ridge axis over our area will flatten/weaken tonight as southwest flow aloft develops ahead of an upper level trough that will be deepening and eventually forming into an upper level low late tonight into early Friday morning over the vicinity of east TX/western LA. Mid to upper level flow gradually becomes more southerly over our region by Friday afternoon on the eastern periphery of the upper low as it tends to retrograde slightly westward. Lows tonight are forecast to be warmer in the lower to mid 50s over inland areas and in the upper 50s to lower 60s near the immediate coast. Will maintain the HIGH rip current risk.
This will lead to a weak coastal trough developing across the western Gulf of Mexico into eastern Texas. If a seabreeze forms, this could increase lifting along the trough axis and lead to some showers and thunderstorms, mainly along coastal areas.
Surface charts show high pressure dominating eastern CONUS. Temperatures are above normal as the Mid-South sits in the low 70s with low humidity. However, once we head into the weekend, the longwave trough out west will begin to deepen with the upper ridge building over eastern CONUS. We'll see dry weather and warmer than average temperatures with highs in the low-to-mid 70s through the next several days. Dry conditions will continue through the start of the workweek with high pressure building over the region.
420 PM MST Thu Nov 5 2020 The latest analysis has upper-level high pressure over the southwestern CONUS with a 170-kt upper jet and westerly flow over the northwestern CONUS/swrn Canada.
/issued 237 PM CST Thu Nov 5 2020/ An upper-level ridge, centered over the Four Corners region, continues to nudge its way over the forecast area. Dry-bulbs will rise into the lower 80s area-wide this afternoon, which is about 10-12 deg F above the climatological norms for this time of year. Winds will diminish quickly after dark as the boundary-layer decouples, and overnight lows will be about 5 deg F cooler than last night as radiative cooling effects are enhanced from the combination of a clear sky and light winds.
This cut-off low will hang out to our west for another 36-48 hrs as the upper-level ridge builds into the Midwest and eventually into the Mid-Atlantic States. This will again allow temperatures to quickly fall into the 40s, with some areas falling into the lower 40s by sunrise. Surface charts show high pressure dominating eastern CONUS. Temperatures are above normal as the Mid-South sits in the low 70s with low humidity. However, once we head into the weekend, the longwave trough out west will begin to deepen with the upper ridge building over eastern CONUS. We'll see dry weather and warmer than average temperatures with highs in the low-to-mid 70s through the next several days. Dry conditions will continue through the start of the workweek with high pressure building over the region.
As a result of partial downslope flow and good insolation allowing for deeper mixing, afternoon temperatures over north central KS have hit the low 80s in spots. Friday and most of the weekend looks great with a ridge overhead and warm southerly flow into the region.
This afternoon, high cirrus clouds continue to push eastward across the forecast area, in association with a passing midlevel trough.
A fairly widespread coverage of dense cirrostratus clouds will persist across the TN Valley for the remainder of the afternoon, in southwest flow downstream from a 500-mb trough dropping into the Arklatex region. Thus, the high-level clouds may persist for much of the evening, before gradually becoming more scattered early Friday morning. The cutoff upper low discussed in the near term section is predicted to remain nearly stationary across southeastern TX during the day on Friday, inducing east-southeasterly flow aloft across the local area.
208 PM MST Thu Nov 5 2020 The latest analysis has upper-level high pressure over the southwestern CONUS with a 170-kt upper jet and westerly flow over the northwestern CONUS/swrn Canada.
The new item of interest is the freezing rain potential.
505 PM CST Thu Nov 5 2020 A strong ridge of high pressure over the region will keep temperatures mild tonight into Friday. Overnight lows remain well above freezing, with mid to upper 40s expected despite clear skies.
High pressure will be in charge overnight as the winds diminish and the skies remain clear overnight. Another area of high clouds will move through early Friday morning as another 500 mb trough moves through quickly. With the cooler, low temperatures falling below the crossover temperature(dewpoint temperature at the heat of the previous afternoon) helping to produce the fog in those areas. Then we have to watch the winds, and whether we mix deep enough to make a run at the lower 70s, like we did yesterday.
/Issued 227 PM EST Thu Nov 5 2020/ Bermuda like high pressure ridge continues to dominate the short term forecast period. The ridge is centered just off the Mid- Atlantic coast which keep GA in moist easterly flow though the period.
/issued 237 PM CST Thu Nov 5 2020/ A weak cold front moved through the region earlier today but only resulted in a brief wind shift to the northeast.
629 PM EST Thu Nov 5 2020 High pressure, both at the surface and aloft, will remain anchored across the Mid-Atlantic for the next several days. High pressure remains over the region with a deepening ridge overhead. Those clouds tonight should keep temps several degrees warmer than previous nights. With clouds gone early tomorrow and high pressure still in place, went a couple degrees warmer once again compared to guidance, similar to today.
412 PM CST Thu Nov 5 2020 A strong ridge of high pressure over the region will keep temperatures mild tonight into Friday. Overnight lows remain well above freezing, with mid to upper 40s expected despite clear skies.
Have seen some stratus hang tough across southeastern Oklahoma indicative of the low level moisture that is expected to stream northward tomorrow. Have kept forecast highs a shade cooler where shallow cloud cover may impact highs a degree or two. Large piece of upper level energy breaks away from the upper level trough and lifts northeast through the Northern Plains. This system helps push a cold front closer to the region which is expected to interact with a second short wave that is expected to break away from the upper trough.
Increasing cloud cover should limit afternoon highs to the lower 80s. Regardless of where Tropical Cyclone Eta tracks, marine and beach conditions will become dangerous as winds and swells greatly increase.
Mainly expecting just some passing high clouds through the night with the approach of an upper level trof/cutoff low. Tomorrow, expect mostly clear skies and mainly nerly breezes of 5-10 knots as high pressure remains in control at the sfc. an upper level trough was moving through Texas and will continue to move down into our area on Friday and close off into an upper somewhat stationary low through the weekend.
A trough will move east across the area this evening.
Currently, an upper trough, stretching from Lake Michigan to northeast Texas, is moving eastward. Temperatures will likely climb a few degrees warmer than today. A deep trough with a closed low over the western US is forecast to deepen and move ashore into California during the period. A cut off upper low over the western Gulf will retrograde west and open up, while an upper level positive height anomaly will develop over the eastern US. In terms of temperatures, we've been running a little warmer than guidance over the last few days and the guidance also has been a bit too moist as well. Given the strength of the upper level ridge and expected south to southwest flow, we feel that going in 90-95th percentile of guidance is a decent bet.
324 PM CST Thu Nov 5 2020 Tonight through Friday, a ridge is dominant over the region, which is enhancing the cooler and drier air that we are seeing.
535 PM CST Thu Nov 5 2020 A weak cold front crossed through the Northland this morning helping to regulate our temperatures back from the odd highs we have seen the past couple days. Friday's temperatures are expected to be in the upper 60s and lower 70s with the rest of the weekend only slightly cooler with temps in the 60s.
325 PM CST Thu Nov 5 2020 A weak cold front crossed through the Northland this morning helping to regulate our temperatures back from the odd highs we have seen the past couple days. Friday's temperatures are expected to be in the upper 60s and lower 70s with the rest of the weekend only slightly cooler with temps in the 60s.
Currently ridging across the southeastern U. with a trough situated near the Mississippi river valley. High clouds present on satellite imagery early this morning are flowing in from more southerly winds in the higher levels of the atmosphere. Expect the ridge to dominate the weather for today and temperatures should be pretty similar to yesterday, running about 5+ degrees above normal for this time of year.
This regime continues Friday, with surface dew points increasing into the lower and middle 60's for most locations across the CWA. Lows will generally be in the lower to middle 50's across our northwestern counties, and upper 50's across the remainder of our inland counties. Will maintain the HIGH rip current risk.
222 AM CST Fri Nov 6 2020 At this hour, a large ridge of high pressure extended west from the central Atlantic states thru the TN valley into the lower MS valley. Today, the ridge will shift a bit further north allowing a warmer and more moist east-southeast flow to develop. High temperatures should climb into the lower to middle 70s this afternoon. Dew points will also be climbing into the lower to middle 50s. For tonight, light easterly flow will persist, and dew points should remain in the lower 50s most of the night. Thus, expect low temperatures in the lower to middle 50s.
This evening through Friday night Overall pattern begins to buckle during the next 24 hours, as the Pacific trough begins to dive down the California Coast and ridging amplifies along the East Coast. Temperatures will stay near record highs for Friday in the 60s and lower 70s, with most of the higher elevations still reaching into the 50s during the afternoon.
Warm conditions will continue over the weekend under southwest flow and lingering high pressure.
240 AM EST Fri Nov 6 2020 High pressure will keep warm and dry conditions across our region today into the weekend.
Fog is unlikely, but if temperatures cool into the low 40s and winds remain clam for several hours Friday morning, some patchy fog won't be out of the question.
1132 PM EST Thu Nov 5 2020 The gradual air mass modification that has been underway since a cold frontal passage earlier this week has resulted in bona fide maritime tropical conditions once again. Meanwhile, a baroclinic trough is evident, moving across the central and western Gulf of Mexico, and inciting a few thunderstorms over the Loop Current.
1134 PM CST Thu Nov 5 2020 A weak cold front crossed through the Northland this morning helping to regulate our temperatures back from the odd highs we have seen the past couple days. Friday's temperatures are expected to be in the upper 60s and lower 70s with the rest of the weekend only slightly cooler with temps in the 60s.
High pressure across the area will keep the mid and lower levels clear, and only some high level clouds are expected. ABM Chattanooga Airport, TN 73 51 74 57 76 / 0 0 0 10 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 71 47 73 53 75 / 0 0 0 0 10 Oak Ridge, TN 72 47 73 53 75 / 0 0 0 0 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 71 44 73 51 73 / 0 0 0 10 10.
1107 PM CST Thu Nov 5 2020 For the 06/06Z TAF period, VFR conditions should largely prevail this period despite the presence of an upper level trough/closed low centered across the region. This upper low will slowly shift more S/SW through Friday. Some cirrus present this evening over our eastern terminals will likely persist overnight in these areas with the low still present. Temperatures do range quite a bit from west to east with upper 50s and lower 60s over the western half of the area and cooler readings in the lower 50s to the east.
High clouds continue to stream across the region with an upper level trough to the west across the Mid and Lower Mississippi River Valley. This upper low is forecast to cutoff later tonight across the northwestern Gulf Coast. The cutoff upper low discussed in the near term section is predicted to remain nearly stationary across southeastern TX during the day on Friday, inducing east-southeasterly flow aloft across the local area.
1011 PM EST Thu Nov 5 2020 A trough will move east across the area overnight.
217 AM EST Fri Nov 6 2020 Weak upper trof and associated cirrus currently pushing east across the Appalachians, giving way to a breaking ridge coming in north of a weak closed low on the Gulf Coast. Should be close to a persistence forecast, with low-level thickness progs and a bit more sunshine supporting max temps a degree or two warmer than Thursday, min temps on Sat morning pretty close to this morning.
1037 PM CST Thu Nov 5 2020 A strong ridge of high pressure over the region will keep temperatures mild tonight into Friday. Overnight lows remain well above freezing, with mid to upper 40s expected despite clear skies.
A deep closed low will drift south along the West Coast on Friday. The low will push a cold front through the forecast area on Friday, reaching the Treasure Valley late in the afternoon and early evening, and the Magic Valley mid to late evening.
In the upper levels, a ridge is over the Central and Eastern U. At the surface, high pressure is centered over the Mid Atlantic states bringing northeasterly or easterly low level flow to the region.
934 PM CST Thu Nov 5 2020 A weak cold front crossed through the Northland this morning helping to regulate our temperatures back from the odd highs we have seen the past couple days. Friday's temperatures are expected to be in the upper 60s and lower 70s with the rest of the weekend only slightly cooler with temps in the 60s.
Today the light and variable upper level flow driven, by a ridge that has been over the region the past few days, will slowly transition to southwesterly flow as an upper level low digs down the California coast.
South winds and increasing mid/upper lvl clouds have resulted in temps running 3 to 5 degrees warmer than expected here in the CPV, while values east of the Greens and parts of the dacks have already hit anticipated low temp fcst. There could be some virga early in the morning as the trough passes overhead. Our flow becomes more west- northwesterly in the afternoon with gradually clearing skies, which this should keep temperatures a few degrees cooler, Friday. High pressure will persist through the weekend, meaning dry and mild conditions will continue.
Did make some minor adjustments to the low temperatures for some locations, incorporating the latest trends in the observations. Due to low level ridging persisting over the area, it has not recovered from the most recent intrusion of dry air behind the last cold front. There is a very weak mid/upper level trough just to our west and moving east. Surface ridging will persist through the short term period, with slow air mass modification only bringing a gradual increase in dew points. Aloft, the trough will progress east over us tonight and weaken, leaving an orphaned upper low along the northwest Gulf Coast, and eventual ridging developing over us on Friday night.
The increasing cloud cover should keep conditions slightly warmer overnight. Patterson (Issued 235 PM CST Thu Nov 5 2020) Tonight and Friday: Light winds and mostly clear skies will continue into Friday as our persistent ridge aloft continues to provide relative high pressure. Temps tonight will likely stay mild, as they have the past couple of nights, although a few degrees cooler, due to more subdued WAA over the region.
227 AM CST Fri Nov 6 2020 High pressure was off to the southeast of the area while a low pressure center was moving into the Dakotas. Highs in the low to mid 70s still look to be on track.
1036 PM MST Thu Nov 5 2020 The latest analysis has upper-level high pressure over the southwestern CONUS with a 170-kt upper jet and westerly flow over the northwestern CONUS/swrn Canada.
Tonight, southwest flow aloft will strengthen ahead of a closed low currently off the PacNW coast. As this low approaches, another closed low off the SoCal coast is weakening and will eject inland as it gets absorbed into the southwesterlies. Remnants of this low will cross Utah tomorrow, with thickening clouds the main impact.
226 AM EST Fri Nov 6 2020 High pressure will keep warm and dry conditions across our region today into the weekend.
Mid-upper level anticyclone will strengthen over the Corn Belt and begin its trek eastward on Friday providing a stronger positive omega field.
300 AM EST Fri Nov 6 2020 High pressure will keep warm and dry conditions across our region today into the weekend.
A quick glance at the 12Z Bismarck sounding showed a fairly impressive low level inversion with temperatures in the low to mid 70s about 1000 ft up. Early morning satellite imagery shows mid and high level clouds streaming across the Northern Plains with a broad H5 ridge in place. A weak cold front will drop south across the state today which should cool temperatures a bit from what we have experienced the last few days.
/Issued 410 AM EST Fri Nov 6 2020/ Synoptic setup shows increasing mid level moisture across the local forecast area with a cutoff low west/southwest of the area and high pressure building in across the eastern seaboard. At the surface, high pressure continues today with increasing moisture across the area due to easterly flow off the Atlantic. The second half of the weekend will be fairly quiet with high pressure centered across the mid-Atlantic coastal region.
509 AM CST Fri Nov 6 2020 (Today and tonight) In the upper levels, a low was dropping down across East TX/LA while a ridge was moving into West Texas, leaving our region in northerly flow aloft. With the upper ridge, we'll have mostly sunny skies today, and a similar 850 mb thermal ridge and southerly flow should lead to another warm day (highs in the mid 70s to low 80s). However, surface ridging will build across the Mississippi Valley today, while low pressure develops in eastern Colorado, which will result in south to southeasterly winds around 5-10 mph in the afternoon. Expect slightly warmer lows tonight in the low to mid 50s due to slightly better winds than this morning and partly cloudy skies, which should limit the amount of radiational cooling that occurs.
Today the light and variable upper level flow driven, by a ridge that has been over the region the past few days, will slowly transition to southwesterly flow as an upper level low digs down the California coast. Starting Saturday morning, high pressure will be situated over the Ohio Valley with a closed low across southeastern Texas.
A few locations in northeast Nebraska clung to the lower and mid 50s. Southerly flow will increase today, as a prominent upper ridge remains over the central CONUS.
This weekend a longwave trough out west will begin to deepen with the upper ridge building over eastern CONUS.
509 AM CST Fri Nov 6 2020 Upper level ridge holding in place over the middle and upper Plain States. A deep closed upper level low sagging southward along the Pacific northwest today. Meanwhile a weak cutoff closed low is sagging slowly toward the northern Gulf coast today.
/28/ Precipitation will return to the region on Saturday as a weakening upper level low center positioned just to the west of the region helps to spread moisture into the ArkLaMiss from the Gulf.
Overnight lows will be significantly warmer with that trend extending into the new week. Ridge then rebuilds over the area between a deep trof emerging over the western CONUS and tropical system Eta advancing northeast through the Caribbean and potentially into the eastern Gulf of Mexico.
High pressure was off to the southeast of the area while a low pressure center was moving into the Dakotas. Highs in the low to mid 70s still look to be on track.
highs in the low to mid 70s continue to look reasonable for the CWA today. A low pressure system.
This keeps the Great Lakes on the warmer/anticyclonic shear side of the jet with very mild and dry conditions persisting today into this weekend. A remarkable 500 mb ridge develops over the Mid-Mississippi Valley today and slides to the northern Ohio Valley tonight, strengthening to 588 dam as it reaches the Mid-Atlantic on Saturday. The longwave trough over the western CONUS gradually advances eastward this weekend but ridging maintains control over the eastern CONUS.
629 AM EST Fri Nov 6 2020 Weak upper trof and associated cirrus currently pushing east across the Appalachians, giving way to a breaking ridge coming in north of a weak closed low on the Gulf Coast.
Conditions remain quiet across the region this morning as high pressure remains situated near the East Coast, but extends presence well into the Deep South.
410 AM EST Fri Nov 6 2020 Latest sfc analysis shows 1028 mb high pressure centered over the DELMARVA with a weak coastal trough just off the Carolina coast. Ridging to the north continues to have a hold over the area, with increasingly robust onshore flow.
916 AM EST Fri Nov 6 2020 High pressure along the eastern seaboard combined with Tropical Depression Eta over the northwestern Caribbean Sea off the coast of Belize is maintaining a tight pressure gradient across the state this morning with a breezy northeast to easterly wind flow being observed across the forecast area. Temperatures today will again run above normal for this time of the year with highs topping out in the lower to mid 80s during the afternoon. A tight pressure gradient between high pressure along the eastern seaboard and T.
Southerly flow increases as we head into the weekend and the surface pressure gradient tightens as a highly amplified trough moves into the western CONUS.
An upper level trough along the Pacific Coast will result in strong southwesterly flow into Nebraska. Meanwhile, surface dew points will remain in the low 30s, resulting in RH values in the teens across western and north central Nebraska. This could potentially break the highest low temperature records, including Valentine's record of 42 (1894) and North Platte's record of 49 (1977).
345 AM CST Fri Nov 6 2020 WV imagery shows an upper trough centered over the Arklatex, buttressed to the west by a ridge over West Texas and Southeast New Mexico. Despite a cold front yesterday, KMAF still managed to top out at 85. The upper ridge over the area will move east over the next few days, courtesy of a trough off the PacNW coast that is forecast to dig down to central CA by Saturday.
An upper level ridge and south to southwest winds are expected to continue across the area through much of the day. The ridge moves off to the east, but the south winds and sunshine will allow temperatures to warm to a few degrees either side of 80 this afternoon. Saturday will be warm, but will be just a little cooler than today.
Today, especially, will be quite warm with highs over north central South Dakota in the low 70s and highs in central South Dakota pegging the low 80s. Based on the trends over the past week and forecast soundings continually indicating very warm air just off the surface, continued leaning towards the higher end of guidance for highs today.
315 AM MST Fri Nov 6 2020 Temperatures today and Saturday will be cooler than what we have seen in the last 4 days but conditions will remain dry behind the front that moved through last night. Big changes arrive on Saturday evening with a strong cold front moving through the area. The current track of the low has shifted slightly east into the Dakotas which will allow temperatures to cool quicker and rain to change to snow sooner.
Southerly winds will begin to strengthen today as low pressure deepens in the western US, resulting in a tightening of the pressure gradient over the area.