Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Concur with the deterministic NWP models which predict the upper trough to move across the ERN CONUS, while a strong upper system develops over the WRN CONUS. Generally weak onshore flow tonight/Tuesday, will be followed by a significant increase in onshore flow owing to deepening low pressure over the SRN Plains/West Texas (in response to developing quasi-zonal upper flow over the Rockies).
657 PM CST Mon Nov 18 2019 A broad trough sits over the eastern CONUS this evening with northwesterly flow aloft over the Plains providing an active storm track across the Mid-South. This lift will be enhanced by the indirect thermal circulation associated with the left exit region of an approaching 120 kt jet streak on the backside of the trough.
509 PM EST Mon Nov 18 2019 An upper level trough was moving east across the region this afternoon. Another fast moving trough will swing through the area late tonight and Tuesday morning.
/issued 259 PM CST Mon Nov 18 2019/ (Tonight and Tuesday) Weak upper level ridging will develop across West Central Texas tonight into Tuesday.
With dry air at the surface and the lack of cloud cover, radiational cooling will allow temperatures to fall a couple of degrees cooler tonight than this morning. The first half of the week will feature a transition from troughing aloft, to ridging aloft.
For tonight, the mid-level wave is forecast to move off to the east and upper level ridging is forecast to build into the region.
However, as dry as the low levels are, there very likely isn't much of this reaching the ground.
A weakening upper level trough over the Pacific Northwest this evening will continue southeastward overnight reaching the forecast area late Tuesday morning. Its possible a the valley could a little precipitation though most of the high- res model guidance keeps the valley dry. By the afternoon, the trough will push east bringing precipitation along the Idaho/Nevada border. Upper level trough moving across the region tonight into Tuesday should mix out the stagnant conditions.
Another upper trough axis expected to swing across the area overnight. A weak ridge of high pressure will move across Middle Tennessee this evening, but its effects will be short- lived.
1211 AM EST Tue Nov 19 2019 An upper level trough was moving east across the region this afternoon. Another fast moving trough will swing through the area late tonight and Tuesday morning.
Otherwise, mostly sunny and warmer today, with highs in the mid 70s to near 80 and a southerly surface flow resuming. The upper level low off Baja California is forecast to open and eject northeast tonight and Wednesday.
Otherwise winds will remain in the 4-6kts range out of the sw, while another weak cold front approaches from the west. CDG Chattanooga Airport, TN 60 38 62 41 66 / 20 10 0 0 20 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 54 37 58 38 65 / 20 10 0 0 10 Oak Ridge, TN 52 36 58 38 64 / 20 20 0 0 20 Tri Cities Airport, TN 50 36 53 33 62 / 30 30 0 0 10.
Light winds will turn southerly tonight/tomorrow as low pressure develops to the west. Aside from this wind shift, the pleasant weather is expected to continue into Tuesday with mostly clear skies in the region and highs in the lower 70s.
High pressure will remain over the region through Wednesday with temperatures gradually increasing each day.
1231 AM EST Tue Nov 19 2019 A trough of low pressure will dissipate over the area tonight into Tuesday. High pressure will then prevail through late week, before a cold front impacts the region over the weekend. A potent mid level trough will swing through the area on Tuesday. At the surface, weak troughing over South Carolina will linger in the morning until the kick from the upper levels comes through. Highs will be cooler than normal, mainly in the low to mid 60s.
258 AM CST Tue Nov 19 2019 The overall weather pattern will be transitioning to more active and warmer weather as upper ridging builds into the central CONUS ahead of our next weather maker. Temperatures will remain above normal this afternoon in the middle 50s to the lower 60s. Highs in the lower to middle 60s on Wednesday will potentially be some of the warmest observed readings this November thus far.
/Issued 927 PM CST Mon Nov 18 2019/ Weak high pressure at the surface will continue to build into the region tonight into Tuesday morning with mostly clear skies.
Wednesday is a nice transition to more seasonal temps day with high pressure shifting east, and increasing heights helping us break out of the deeper northwesterlies, which shift east with the parent Low.
Mixing down of warmer air aloft has allowed places such as Chamberlain, Gregory, Yankton, and Vermillion to break 60 degrees this afternoon.
235 AM EST Tue Nov 19 2019 Weak system today, gives way to high pressure Wednesday. In the higher elevations of the mountains where temperatures are below freezing, there is a slight chance of freezing drizzle. An upper level trough will then move across this evening. Once again, in some locations in the mountains where temperatures are below freezing, there is a slight chance of freezing drizzle. Models continue to show weak high pressure building over the area on Wednesday.
Lows tonight will bottom out between the upper 30s for north to west central GA to the low 40s for east central GA. By Tuesday evening, the axis of the longwave trough itself will clear the forecast area as the trough pushes east towards the Atlantic coast. Temperatures through the rest of the day and tomorrow will run between 0-4 degrees below climatological normals, with highs mainly ranging from the upper 50s to the mid 60s and lows mainly ranging from the mid 30s to the low 40s. Upper troughs moving across the OH Valley through Tuesday still look basically dry for our area.
For tonight, a Pacific based cold front will shift across the region, causing winds to shift to the northwest. Temperatures behind this front are actually warmer than ahead of it, as some locations across Nebraska warmed to near 70 today. A ridge of high pressure aloft will build across the nation's midsection bringing much warmer than usual temperatures.
338 AM EST Tue Nov 19 2019 A fast moving upper trough will swing through the area today.
927 PM CST Mon Nov 18 2019 Weak high pressure at the surface will continue to build into the region tonight into Tuesday morning with mostly clear skies.
Once that system heads east of the region Tuesday night, we'll get high pressure over us at the surface for Wednesday morning along with building heights aloft. This ridging will warm us up and allow high temperatures to be normal for once in this month that has seen many colder than normal days. With high pressure right over us and some light rains during the day, we could see some river valley fog formation.
A mid-level cloud deck is currently moving through Ern AR and should clear the state over the next few hours, with clear skies following behind a weak cold front moving through Cntrl AR. Tonight Through Wednesday An upper low is over the Appalachians this afternoon with an upper ridge over the western U. The upper ridge will move through the Plains Tuesday and Wednesday as an upper low gathers strength on the west coast. A warm front will move into Arkansas tonight followed by a weak cold front which will stall over central Arkansas Tuesday before moving north as a warm front Tuesday night.
First, temperatures will be significantly warmer tomorrow due to breezy downsloping winds. This will be in response to the next short wave trough digging down the west coast within the southern stream. This short wave will cut off into a closed low on Wednesday morning and will be slow moving over the next several days. The upper level closed low currently sitting off the coast of Baja California will open up and move out ahead of the aforementioned closed low on Wednesday. Strong jet level winds will move overhead with this initial short wave trough placing the region in the exit region of an upper level jet streak. Although the strong downsloping winds will continue on Wednesday, temperatures will be cooler than Tuesday due to expected cloud cover and precipitation.
Upper ridging builds east into the Rockies tonight, with the stronger northwest flow shifting away. Cold air advection behind the associated front is again modest and even the coldest solutions keep temperatures above freezing and prevent a wintry precip concern from materializing.
upper trough. Clouds begin thinning out by this afternoon and evening as the upper trough axis shifts east.
Sfc temperatures were hovering near freezing where the pcpn was falling, and RAP soundings indicated a shallow warm layer just off the sfc for some locations. Nice slug of low level warming precedes the low across the region. Could see a wintry mix to drizzle (freezing?) on the backend of the event, but as of now, doesn't look like a prolonged period.
Another upper trough axis expected to swing across the area overnight. An upper trough and associated surface boundary will swing through Middle Tennessee during the next several hours, bringing mainly VFR ceilings and a few light echoes to the mid state.
/issued 657 PM CST Mon Nov 18 2019/ A broad trough sits over the eastern CONUS this evening with northwesterly flow aloft over the Plains providing an active storm track across the Mid-South. This lift will be enhanced by the indirect thermal circulation associated with the left exit region of an approaching 120 kt jet streak on the backside of the trough. Clouds will help keep temps a little warmer with lows in the lower 40s. Tuesday and Wednesday will be really nice days with plenty of sun and warmer temps with highs in the 60s.
Eastern CONUS mid/upper trough will slide north and east away from the area today and the upper pattern will transition to ridging upstream.
Highs should range from the low 40s, in western MN, to the low 50s, in central South Dakota. Of note, the 0Z ECMWF and the 3Z run of the RAP keeps the low clouds in North Dakota through 18Z Wednesday.
415 AM MST Tue Nov 19 2019 Splitting upper trof moving into the Pacific Northwest this morning. Southern portion will form a closed low over southern California while the northern portion slides across Montana tonight. Trof moves east Wednesday morning with high pressure pushing into north central Montana. Models suggesting drier air aloft moving into the southern zones before precipitation ends, which could result in some freezing rain or drizzle. Remainder of the week will be dry with temperatures moderating as all the energy and moisture is taken up by closed low moving across the desert southwest.
The northern stream trough will approach the forecast area tonight and a cold front will move in at the surface. Snow accumulations are expected to be light over much of the area, with the higher accumulations of 1 to 3 inches possible over parts of northeastern Wyoming, the Black Hills and the far southwestern corner of South Dakota.
Overall, the pattern then shifts to be drier Wednesday as an area of high pressure builds back into the area.
311 AM CST Tue Nov 19 2019 An upper level ridge will move east across the Plains today and then over the region on Wednesday. A warm front will move north this afternoon and return southerly winds to the area.
We remain under the influence of high pressure at the surface as a slowing cool front will washout over the northern tier of the state today. ridging will build over the gulf states into Wednesday ahead of a upr lvl low that will take a southerly track from Baja Ca into Texas late in the week.
In the meantime, another warm day is expected area-wide w/weak ridging aloft and S-SW sfc flow. High clouds may limit heating a bit today, however the 850 mb thermal ridge will again develop over the Pecos River valley where high temperatures may reach the lower 80s. The aforementioned upper-low will begin to progress eastward later tonight as another trof develops to its north. This low will transition into an open wave and reach the far western CWA by early Wednesday.
VFR conditions through the day however mid clouds will increase after 01Z CNM and 03Z MAF as mid-level trough approaches. In the meantime, another warm day is expected area-wide w/weak ridging aloft and S-SW sfc flow. High clouds may limit heating a bit today, however the 850 mb thermal ridge will again develop over the Pecos River valley where high temperatures may reach the lower 80s. The aforementioned upper-low will begin to progress eastward later tonight as another trof develops to its north. This low will transition into an open wave and reach the far western CWA by early Wednesday.
The next 24-36 will be quiet as a midlevel ridge axis, currently across the Central Rockies, overspreads the forecast area. The benign weather pattern will begin to transition tonight as lee troughing across the High Plains will deepen in response to an approaching midlevel low, currently off the Baja coast.
445 AM MST Tue Nov 19 2019 A more active period begins on Wednesday following the passage of a cold front and a complex series of low pressure centers working their way east of the Rockies.
A fast moving upper trough will swing through the area today.
High pressure ridging continues to build into the region today as well above- normal temperatures are expected especially across the high plains with mid to upper 60s expected.
630 AM EST Tue Nov 19 2019 A fast moving upper trough will swing through the area today.
527 AM EST Tue Nov 19 2019 A fast moving upper trough will swing through the area today.
/DL/ Today and tonight: Quiet weather conditions will continue across the region as an upper trough finally shifts east of the area. A surface pressure trough - I won't call it a front due to the lack of a discernible theta-e gradient - will push through this morning, bringing a wind shift and slightly breezy conditions through the day. With full sunshine and upper heights increasing, it will be warmer today, with many areas cracking the 70 degree mark.
Sfc temperatures were hovering near freezing where the pcpn was falling, and RAP soundings indicated a shallow warm layer just off the sfc for some locations. Nice slug of low level warming precedes the low across the region. Could see a wintry mix to drizzle (freezing?) on the back end of the event, but as of now, doesn't look like a prolonged period.
316 AM CST Tue Nov 19 2019 Today and tonight: Quiet weather conditions will continue across the region as an upper trough finally shifts east of the area. A surface pressure trough - I won't call it a front due to the lack of a discernible theta-e gradient - will push through this morning, bringing a wind shift and slightly breezy conditions through the day. With full sunshine and upper heights increasing, it will be warmer today, with many areas cracking the 70 degree mark.
915 AM EST Tue Nov 19 2019 A fast moving upper trough will swing through the area today.
The west coast upper level trough will transform into a cut off low across the desert southwest on Wednesday, with a lead wave ejecting northeastward from the low Wednesday afternoon. Meanwhile a cold front will be surging south across western South Dakota and moving into northwest Nebraska. Cold air advection will be under way behind the cold front across northwest Nebraska, where highs will reach the lower 40s around noontime before falling during the afternoon. Elsewhere highs in the lower to mid 50s are expected ahead of the front across north central through southwest Nebraska. This will be a rain changing to snow event from west to east, and regardless of how much precipitation falls will have to watch for wet untreated surfaces possibly freezing as temperatures fall through the 20s later Wednesday night.
445 AM CST Tue Nov 19 2019 An upper level ridge will move east across the Plains today and then over the region on Wednesday. A warm front will move north this afternoon and return southerly winds to the area.
310 AM PST Tue Nov 19 2019 Pattern change begins today to breezy to windy conditions, cooler temperatures and possible showers over mainly the Sierra Nevada south of I-80. The initial portion of the trough will dig southward off the coast this morning, while the stronger wave (presently along the BC coast) will rapidly drop south today before closing off near Monterey later tonight.
412 AM CST Tue Nov 19 2019 Very nice above normal temperatures will continue today into Wednesday ahead of the next cold front. The cold front will swing through the forecast area Wednesday evening bringing a good chance for rain to much of the area.
/Today through Wednesday afternoon/ Upper-ridge to prevail through most of the short term forecast period. Showers possible across southeast Oklahoma and northeast Texas late Wednesday afternoon ahead of a cold front. Otherwise, afternoon high temperatures on Wednesday to climb into the low to mid 70s.
In the wake of these features a reinforcing shot of dry air will move into the area during the afternoon on a northwest wind flow with ample sunshine and pleasant dry weather expected as high pressure builds in. After a cool start with temperatures in the 40s north, 50s central, and around 60 across southwest Florida readings will rebound into the lower to mid 70s north into central areas, and upper 70s far south during the afternoon. High pressure building in will support pleasant boating conditions over the Gulf waters the remainder of today with northwest winds in the 10 to 15 knot range with seas of 2 feet or less.
Sea fog may also be a possi- bility around this same time frame as dewpoints increase into the lower/mid 60s. Models are still mostly trending with the passage of our next cold front for Fri during the day. We'll begin warming back up next Mon and Tues as this high moves off to the east and the onshore winds return.
339 AM MST Tue Nov 19 2019 A more active period begins on Wednesday following the passage of a cold front and a complex series of low pressure centers working their way east of the Rockies.
Highs today will climb to the lower 70s from Osceola/Brevard northward and to the mid 70s for the Treasure Coast. Winds this afternoon will increase a bit as a low pressure exiting the southeast U. and a building ridge from the Gulf of Mexico eastward increases the pressure gradient to our northeast. Dry weather conditions today and tomorrow with forecast minimum RH values in the lower to mid/upper 30s today across Orange northward and in the lower/mid 40s across the Treasure Coast and its western counties.
802 AM EST Tue Nov 19 2019 Broad upper-level troughing will maintain cooler temperature along with isolated light rain or snow today.
430 AM CST Tue Nov 19 2019 Currently, a weak upper-level trough is moving through the region which is what sparked scattered showers across the Mid-South. We'll dry out today as a ridge is currently located upstream of the Mid-South and will begin to build into the region this afternoon. Temperatures will be warmer today with winds out of the south-southeast. Highs will be be closer to normal with temperatures in the low-to-mid 60s.
/issued 430 AM CST Tue Nov 19 2019/ Currently, a weak upper-level trough is moving through the region which is what sparked scattered showers across the Mid-South. We'll dry out today as a ridge is currently located upstream of the Mid-South and will begin to build into the region this afternoon. Temperatures will be warmer today with winds out of the south-southeast. Highs will be be closer to normal with temperatures in the low-to-mid 60s.
527 AM CST Tue Nov 19 2019 The overall weather pattern will be transitioning to more active and warmer weather as upper ridging builds into the central CONUS ahead of our next weather maker. Temperatures will remain above normal this afternoon in the middle 50s to the lower 60s. Highs in the lower to middle 60s on Wednesday will potentially be some of the warmest observed readings this November thus far.
Highs should range from the low 40s, in western MN, to the low 50s, in central South Dakota. Of note, the 00Z ECMWF and the 03Z run of the RAP keep the low clouds in North Dakota through 18Z Wednesday.
506 AM EST Tue Nov 19 2019 Broad upper-level troughing will maintain cooler temperature along with isolated light rain or snow today.
535 AM EST Tue Nov 19 2019 Weak system today, gives way to high pressure Wednesday. In the higher elevations of the mountains where temperatures are below freezing, there is a slight chance of freezing drizzle. An upper level trough will then move across this evening. Once again, in some locations in the mountains where temperatures are below freezing, there is a slight chance of freezing drizzle. Models continue to show weak high pressure building over the area on Wednesday.
1137 AM CST Tue Nov 19 2019 Very nice above normal temperatures will continue today into Wednesday ahead of the next cold front. The cold front will swing through the forecast area Wednesday evening bringing a good chance for rain to much of the area.
As the high propagates into our region our heights are expected to rise, which will in turn lead to slightly warmer temperatures overnight than what has been observed over the past few evenings. Temperatures are expected to be in the low to mid 40s across much of the region, with coastal areas potentially holding on to the low 50s due to the warm waters still observed in the shelf waters.
1034 AM EST Tue Nov 19 2019 Currently - Deep mid and upper level trough remains over the eastern third of the U. Upstream of this trough is an upper level ridge across the Intermountain West. At the surface, a reinforcing cold front is pushing southeast across the Gulf of Mexico and stretches east across Lake Okeechobee. Temperatures thus far have risen into the mid to upper 70s with dew points comfortably in the low to mid 60s. Reinforcing cold front will move through the area late this afternoon and evening, ushering in even lower dew points. Winds will turn more northerly tonight with the passage of a secondary cold front.
There may be a brief period of wintry precipitation over the highest elevations of the Smoky Mountains with a dusting of ice/snow possible above 5kft. Cloud cover will be slow to erode over the northern half/third of the area Wednesday given the strong inversion above the low-level moist layer.
1202 PM PST Tue Nov 19 2019 Low pressure will move into the region from the north tonight and Wednesday bringing a chance of rain and mountain snow along with cooler temperatures.
Before the cold front makes it to the area late this afternoon/evening, High temperatures should be able to reach upper 50s to lower 60s in most locations.
Otherwise winds will remain in the 4-6kts range out of the sw, while another weak cold front approaches from the west. CDG Chattanooga Airport, TN 60 41 61 40 / 20 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 55 42 57 36 / 20 10 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 54 41 58 36 / 20 20 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 52 40 53 33 / 20 40 10 0.
113 PM EST Tue Nov 19 2019 An upper level trough crossing the Midlands this afternoon will bring clearing in its wake.
TFJ Splitting upper trof moving into the Pacific Northwest this morning. Southern portion will form a closed low over southern California while the northern portion slides across Montana tonight. Trof moves east Wednesday morning with high pressure pushing into north central Montana. Models suggesting drier air aloft moving into the southern zones before precipitation ends, which could result in some freezing rain or drizzle. Remainder of the week will be dry with temperatures moderating as all the energy and moisture is taken up by closed low moving across the Desert Southwest.
323 PM EST Tue Nov 19 2019 An area of large high pressure will remain across the Southeast U.
Lows tonight will drop into the low to mid 30s, with highs on Wednesday in the 40s.
Afternoon/evening, the high pressure will shift east- southeastward along the Gulf coastal regions, allowing onshore flow to return to the local area.
117 PM EST Tue Nov 19 2019 An upper level trough crossing the Midlands this afternoon will bring clearing in its wake.
Keep in mind, however, that rainfall totals look to be on the low side at around a tenth of an inch or less for most areas. Otherwise, increasing clouds will keep temperatures warmer for tonight and cooler for tomorrow afternoon.