Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
910 PM EDT WED SEP 23 2015 ONLY A LIGHT SHOWER IN THE GULF WATERS WELL NORTH OF THE LOWER KEYS CAN BE FOUND ON KEY WEST RADAR. TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 80S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 70S CAN BE FOUND ACROSS THE ISLANDS.
1156 PM EDT WED SEP 23 2015 EXISTING HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL SUSTAIN THIS STRETCH OF QUIET WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD. A RELATIVELY DEEP MIDLEVEL ANTICYCLONE CIRCULATION CENTER IS FORECASTED TO DRIFT EASTWARD ACROSS FAR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN THIS EVENING.
842 PM EDT WED SEP 23 2015 MILD CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS MAINLY FAIR WEATHER.
905 PM EDT WED SEP 23 2015 A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THIS WEEKEND. SCT CIRRUS WILL SPILL OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE INTO THE AREA BUT SHOULD BE THIN. A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT IN AREAS EXPOSED TO THE LIGHT EAST BREEZE. THERMAL PROFILES GET A LITTLE WARMER ACROSS NORTHEAST OH AND NORTHWEST PA ON MOST OF THE MODELS ON THURSDAY AND A LITTLE COOLER ACROSS NORTHWEST OH. NOT SURE WHY IT WILL BE COOLER ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO WITH THE EXCEPTION NEAR LAKE ERIE WHERE THE FLOW IS OFF THE WATER.
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS WITH A CLOSED LOW PRESENTLY NEAR THE BIG BEND AREA OF FLORIDA. A COLD FRONT IS JUST OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST WITH A HIGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES DRIER AIR TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CLOSED LOW. THE CLOSED LOW WILL SLOWLY DRIFT NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS. THE LOW SHOULD BE ALONG THE AL/GA BORDER WITH SOUTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY WINDS ALOFT BRINGING IN HIGHER PW AIR. 8 INCH RANGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES WITH THE HIGHER END APPROACHING THE 90TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. WEAK LIFT UNDER THIS LOW SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES IS PULLING SOME HIGH/MID LEVEL CLOUDS INTO THE FAR EASTERN SECTIONS. CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 63 83 63 73 / 0 10 50 60 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 61 82 61 72 / 0 10 70 70 OAK RIDGE, TN 62 83 62 73 / 0 10 60 60 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 57 78 58 69 / 0 20 70 80.
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL DRIFT WESTWARD FOR THE WEEKEND. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ONSHORE.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MOSTLY CLEAR TO CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. THIS WILL YIELD ANOTHER NIGHT OF MODERATE RIDGE/VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT AND PATCHY DENSE VALLEY FOG. VALLEY LOCATIONS SHOULD AGAIN REACH THE LOW TO MID 50S WITH READINGS NEAR 60 ON THE RIDGES. 18Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE COUNTRY.
THIS ACTIVITY DEVELOPED ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE PLATEAU ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF MUCH DEEPER MOISTURE PRESENT OF EASTERN TENNESSEE AS SHOWN BY THE 65 DEGREE DEWPOINT AT CHA.
1000 PM EDT WED SEP 23 2015 HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE AREA. RIDGING WILL REMAINS OVER THE REGION. WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS AS HIGH PRESSURE STILL HOLDS ONTO THE REGION.
1126 PM CDT WED SEP 23 2015 LOW TO MID LEVEL DRY SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AROUND GREAT LAKES HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES HOLDING LOWER CLOUDS AND ANY PRECIPITATION AT BAY WELL TO OUR WEST. ALTHOUGH IF ANY DELTA LIKELY TO BE COOLER WITH MORE CLEARING. THROUGH THE WEEKEND WE ARE STILL UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DRIER EASTERLY FLOW IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS. AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY SHIFTS TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON THURSDAY. REMAINING PARKED THERE THROUGH THE WEEKEND THANKS TO STRONG DOWNSTREAM BLOCKING. AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG EAST PACIFIC TROUGH WILL BE UNDERGOING A SPLIT OVER THE WEEKEND. THE EURO SEEMS TO TAKE MORE ENERGY IN THE NORTHERN SPLIT MOVING ACROSS THE HIGHER LATITUDES. SO WILL SIDE WITH THE WARMER AND DRIER EURO SOLUTION. DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS.
OTHERWISE SCT- BKN HIGH CLOUDS WILL STREAM ACROSS SRN WI FOR THU AND THU NT EMANATING FROM AN UPPER LOW OVER THE MID MO RIVER VALLEY.
1153 PM CDT WED SEP 23 2015 SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND PROPAGATE ALONG AN 850MB WARM FRONT NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER IN NORTH DAKOTA. THE DRIVER FOR THIS APPEARS TO BE FOCUS FROM THE LOW LEVEL JET AND WARM ADVECTION. CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH IN EITHER AREA OR OTHER AREAS OF PCPN THAT MAY DEVELOP SO HAVE KEPT PCPN CHANCES ON THE LOW SIDE. SO AT THIS POINT ND POINTS IN THE FA SHOULD BE WARMER THAN THOSE IN MN.
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST.
1259 AM EDT THU SEP 24 2015 A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE REGIONS WEATHER RIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH NO RAIN IN THE FORECAST.
730 PM EDT WED SEP 23 2015 A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THIS WEEKEND. A FEW CIRRUS WILL SPILL OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE INTO THE AREA BUT THEY SHOULD BE THIN. A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT IN AREAS EXPOSED TO THE LIGHT EAST BREEZE. THERMAL PROFILES GET A LITTLE WARMER ACROSS NORTHEAST OH AND NORTHWEST PA ON MOST OF THE MODELS ON THURSDAY AND A LITTLE COOLER ACROSS NORTHWEST OH. NOT SURE WHY IT WILL BE COOLER ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO WITH THE EXCEPTION NEAR LAKE ERIE WHERE THE FLOW IS OFF THE WATER.
/ISSUED 244 PM CDT WED SEP 23 2015/ UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ANCHORED TO OUR SW OVER NRN MEXICO HAS ALLOWED FOR A NICE WARM-UP OF SOME 30 DEGREES AFTER LOWS THIS MORNING IN THE 50S AND 60S. THIS RIDGE WILL BEGIN RETREATING SW OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS AN UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED BROAD TROF ACROSS THE SERN STATES SLOWLY RETROGRADE TOWARD OUR REGION.
810 PM EDT WED SEP 23 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING QUIET WEATHER TO THE REGION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
TEMPERATURES WILL SINK TO THE LOW TO MID 60S WITH SOME LOW CLOUDS FORMING IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AND DISSIPATING AFTER SUNRISE.
932 PM EDT WED SEP 23 2015 A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSING THE REGION THIS EVENING WILL BRING PATCHY CLOUDS TO NORTHERN AREAS EARLY THIS EVENING AND CENTRAL AREAS LATER TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL THEN BRING A FRESH COOL DRY AIR MASS INTO THE AREA. THURSDAY WILL FEATURE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND BE NOTICEABLY COOLER AND DRIER THAN TODAY.
453 PM PDT WED SEP 23 2015 UPDATED AVIATION SECTION HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BRING A WARMING TREND TO THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN WILL RESULT IN GENERALLY DRY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. AN UPPER RIDGE IS BUILDING OVER UTAH THIS EVE. A FEW CELLS EVEN FORMED AS FAR NORTH AS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AROUND EUREKA SOUTHWEST OF PROVO. EXPECT LESS ACTIVITY TOMORROW AS THE RIDGE STRENGTHENS BRINGING ADDITIONAL DRYING WITH CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS FRI. TEMPS SHOULD WARM SOMEWHAT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR REACHING RECORDS FRI AND SAT AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST ALLOWING A SWLY FLOW TO DEVELOP AND BRING BETTER MIXING.
637 PM CDT WED SEP 23 2015 LOW TO MID LEVEL DRY SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AROUND GREAT LAKES HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES HOLDING LOWER CLOUDS AND ANY PRECIPITATION AT BAY WELL TO OUR WEST. ALTHOUGH IF ANY DELTA LIKELY TO BE COOLER WITH MORE CLEARING. THROUGH THE WEEKEND WE ARE STILL UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DRIER EASTERLY FLOW IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS. AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY SHIFTS TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
622 PM CDT WED SEP 23 2015 FOR 00Z TAFS /ISSUED 238 PM CDT WED SEP 23 2015/ THE 19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED THAT A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WAS RIDGING BACK SOUTHWEST INTO THE LOWER OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALABAMA/SOUTHERN GEORGIA FROM FLORIDA BY LATE THURSDAY.
935 PM PDT WED SEP 23 2015 HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BRING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
708 PM EDT WED SEP 23 2015 A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSING THE REGION THIS EVENING WILL BRING PATCHY CLOUDS TO NORTHERN AREAS EARLY THIS EVENING AND CENTRAL AREAS LATER TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL THEN BRING A FRESH COOL DRY AIR MASS INTO THE AREA. THURSDAY WILL FEATURE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND BE NOTICEABLY COOLER AND DRIER THAN TODAY.
1035 PM EDT WED SEP 23 2015 A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE REGIONS WEATHER RIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH NO RAIN IN THE FORECAST.
HUFFMAN A DEEP LAYER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN TEXAS WILL SLOWLY RECEDE AWAY FROM SOUTHEAST TEXAS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE TROUGH TO MOVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
1232 AM EDT THU SEP 24 2015 A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA.
HUFFMAN SKIES HAVE CLEARED OUT FOR THE MOST PART (LITTLE BLOB OF CIRRUS MOVING EASTWARD THROUGH THE AREA FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS) AND TEMPERATURES SLOWLY FALLING FROM THE HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S AGAIN. 45 A DEEP LAYER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN TEXAS WILL SLOWLY RECEDE AWAY FROM SOUTHEAST TEXAS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE TROUGH TO MOVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
BOTH OF THESE WERE AWAY FROM THE HIGHEST ESTIMATES. UPPER LOW STARTS TO OPEN UP AND PROGRESS EASTERLY. RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA WITH SKIES GRADUALLY CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST. DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND ENSEMBLE OUTPUT SUPPORT BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER NORTH AMERICA EVENTUALLY BREAKING DOWN BY LATE WEEKEND AS TROUGH MOVES INTO CENTRAL CANADA.
1033 PM EDT WED SEP 23 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING QUIET WEATHER TO THE REGION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
SHOULD SEE LOW CLOUDS/PATCHY FOG FORMING FIRST ALONG THE SOUTH PLATTE AROUND GREELEY AND FT MORGAN WHERE DEWPTS COULD REMAIN IN THE LOW/MID 50S ALL NIGHT. MODELS ALSO SHOW A WEAK UPVALLEY PUSH OF MOIST AIR WHICH COULD PUSH THE WESTERN EDGE OF THIS LOW CLOUD COVER AS FAR WEST AS THE NORTH/NORTHEAST DENVER METRO AREA BY 13Z OR SO. MODELS HAVE AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH VERY WEAK NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE WEST COAST WITH INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW AND A DEEPENING MARINE LAYER THROUGH MIDWEEK.
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE TRENDS THIS EVENING DEPICT A LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS STRETCHING FROM NEAR LAKE ERIE BACK THROUGH NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AND INTO TEXAS AND A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR HOT SPRINGS ARKANSAS. /ISSUED 249 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/ A BROAD UPPER TROF CURRENTLY OVER THE AREA WILL DRIFT WEST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE EAST. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE MIDSOUTH AS DAYTIME HEATING IS INTERACTING WITH THE UPPER TROF. CAN/T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OCCURRING OVER THE REST OF THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS BUT OVERALL EXPECT A DRY PERIOD AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA.
Weak ridge will shift east with light southeast sfc-850mb flow set to develop through Monday. Guidance is fairly similar in this occurring, holding the highest accumulating precip in south central NE. As a result, highs in the lower 90s east central to mid 90s central ks is expected while lows only drop to the upper 60s and low 70s.
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CURRENTLY MOVING INTO EASTERN ALABAMA. THE SPIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW IS VISIBLE WITH EVERY FORM OF REMOTE SENSING DATA. EXPECT THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH OFF TO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES DECREASING THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND SHOULD COME TO AN END FOR THE MOST PART DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS EAST ALABAMA ON MONDAY BUT THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST AND PW VALUES WILL BE DECREASING SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE AREA.
THE EXTENDED LOOKS WARM AND DRY AS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING DOMINATES THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A SLIGHT WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE APPEARS TO DEVELOP ACROSS ILLINOIS INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.
THOUGH LOW PRESSURE IS GRADUALLY MOVING OUR WAY OVERNIGHT THROUGH MORNING. LOWS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT ACROSS THE BOARD AND REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. THOUGHTS ON THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U. MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT RIDGING BEING RATHER BROAD THROUGH MID-WEEK BEFORE OVERALL AMPLIFICATION AT THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS A TROUGH DIGS INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
/ISSUED 247 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/ A BROAD LONGWAVE MID-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDED FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI. TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS TODAY WITH A POSITIVE TILTED RIDGE ANCHORED WEST OVER THE ROCKIES. TO THE LOWER-MID 90S NORTH OF I-20 WHERE SUNSHINE HAS BEEN MORE ABUNDANT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THIS WEEK. A COLD FRONT COULD COOL US DOWN BY LATE WEEK. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING WITH JUST A PERIOD OF BKN CLOUDINESS FOR SOME AREAS. A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY BRING A SHOWER TO THE WESTERN MAINE MOUNTAINS DURING THE DAY. DRY AND A BIT COOLER IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT.
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN STRENGTHEN AND KEEP US IN A RATHER STAGNANT PATTERN. FOR MOST OF THE AFTERNOON THIS DRIER AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS HAS RESULTED IN RETURNS ON AREA RADARS YIELDING LITTLE MORE THAN SPOTTY SPRINKLES. CLOUDS TONIGHT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 60S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WITH UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S TO THE WEST.
1155 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015 FOR 06Z TAFS /ISSUED 1002 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/ REMNANTS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST CUTOFF UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE LEE OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS OVERNIGHT. LIKELY IN RESPONSE TO WEAK ASCENT ABOVE A SHALLOW DOME OF RELATIVELY COOLER AIR BEING ADVECTED INTO THE REGION ON LIGHT EAST-NORTHEAST FLOW AT THE SURFACE. COUPLED WITH LGT E FLOW AND CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT SHOULD ALLOW FOR RAPID SATURATION OF THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE BTWN 31/06-08Z.
Showers and isolated thunderstorms have ended over eastern WA and north ID this evening as the upper trough and associated cold pool aloft have moved off into Montana. /Kelch 00Z TAFS: Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will affect extreme northeast WA and the northern panhandle of ID behind a cold front moving into western Montana.
MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S IN THE WARMER INLAND AREAS. A MID/UPPER LEVEL LONG-WAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO PERSIST OVER MUCH OF THE WEST COAST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK.
A COLD FRONT WAS PROPAGATING ACROSS THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR. COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA SUNDAY AFTERNOON IS NEARLY ALIGNED WITH THE FLOW ALOFT AND THUS IS MOVING SLOWLY EAST. KEPT POPS ON THE LOW SIDE WITH NOT MUCH MORE THAN 30 PERCENT POPS TONIGHT ENDING MONDAY MORNING. COOLER MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.
THE HIGHER PWAT ENVIRONMENT IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EAST INTO CENTRAL NEW MEXICO OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS.
WV imagery shows an unusual pattern over West Texas and Southeast new Mexico, w/a clearly defined trough circulating south thru Texas and cutting into the upper ridge. The upper ridge will make an effort to re-establish itself over the region, but thicknesses only increase slightly thru the week. The MAV guidance is warmer than the MET, but both NAM and GFS soundings suggest favoring the lower end of MOS. Under the ridge, rain chances look slim, except for development invof the Sacramentos, where the theta-e ridge resides. Chances really ramp up Monday w/the arrival of a strong cold front, but that is beyond the reach of this forecast.
1036 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015 SKIES WILL CLEAR ACROSS THE REGION AS THE UPPER TROUGH FILLS AND MOVES TO THE EAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN RETURN WITH WARM AND GENERALLY DRY WEATHER PERSISTING THROUGH THE COMING WEEK. SKIES WILL CLEAR ACROSS THE REGION AS THE UPPER TROUGH FILLS AND MOVES EAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S WITH UPPER 60S NEAR THE LAKESHORES. THE SOUTHERN PLAINS UPPER RIDGE WILL UNDERGO STEADY DOWNSTREAM AMPLIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS PROCESS WILL EFFECTIVELY PUSH AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER GREAT LAKES MONDAY. WITH DAYTIME READINGS REACHING THE LOWER TO MID 80S. COURTESY OF PERSISTENT SURFACE-BASED RIDGING FIRMLY ANCHORED ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE NATION AND WESTERN ATLANTIC. AND A CORRESPONDING BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DRAPED ACROSS AREAS EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
510 PM PDT SUN AUG 30 2015 A COLD FRONT HAS BROUGHT COOLER TEMPERATURES AND WEST SIDE RAINS TO THE AREA TODAY.
954 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OFFSHORE THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE RECENTERS OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND PERSISTS LATE INTO THE WEEK. THOUGH GENERALLY WEST FROM THE BLUE RIDGE. HIGH PRESSURE STILL OFFSHORE WITH SLY FLOW ADVECTION IN MOISTURE.
805 PM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015 01Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM CENTRAL ND INTO CENTRAL WY WITH PREFRONTAL TROUGH FROM CENTRAL ND INTO WESTERN NE. THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT FROM FAR EASTERN MT THROUGH NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL WY. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS POSITIVELY TILTED RIDGE FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BEHIND THE RIDGE FROM THE GREAT BASIN TO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. AS WELL AS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CENTRAL WY. COLD FRONT WILL EVER SO SLOWLY CROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. SOME COOLER AIR WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA.
A SECOND SOURCE OF MOISTURE IS COMING FROM A WEAK UPPER LOW SITTING OVER THE GULF COAST STATES. UPPER RIDGING BECOMES MORE ESTABLISHED OVER THE REGION BY MONDAY NIGHT WITH A DRY FORECAST IN PLACE.
A WARM FRONT WILL BRING LIGHT RAIN TO THE COAST AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON ON MONDAY.
846 PM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015 UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SHIFT EAST IN ADVANCE OF UPPER LEVEL TROF ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKY MTN STATES. STILL BARELY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A STRONG/VERY WARM AND MOSTLY DRY POSITIVE TILT UPPER RIDGE. 700-500 MB RIDGE AXIS IS NOW SHIFTED EAST OF THE FRONT RANGE AS PER LATEST RAP MODEL WITH FLOW ALOFT BECOMING WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY. MODEL CROSS SECTIONS AND SOUNDINGS SHOW CONDENSATION LEVELS LOWERING OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY AS A BAND OF SHOWERS AND T-STORMS ALIGNED WITH A WEAK MID-LEVEL PERTABATION PASSES OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING. SHOULD SEE A WEAK SFC COLD FRONT SLIDING SOUTH OUT OF WYOMING. WITH A RE-ENFORCING SURGE OF SLIGHTLY COOLER AND WETTER NELY FLOW BY ABOUT MIDDAY.
UPPER TROUGHING IS SITUATED OVER THE PACIFIC NW. WHAT IS LEFT OF THE COLD FRONT STRETCHES FROM EASTERN MO DOWN INTO SW OK WITH A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE RED RIVER. PATTERN IS EXPECTED REMAIN FAIRLY STABLE THROUGH THESE EXTENDED PERIODS WITH UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE NW CONUS WITH A BROAD AREA OF RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEAST. LAWSON UPPER RIDGE ALOFT WILL REMAIN ANCHORED JUST NORTHWEST OF THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY.
A COLD FRONT HAS BROUGHT COOLER TEMPERATURES AND WEST SIDE RAINS TO THE AREA TODAY.
92 SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER INTO THE EVENING ACROSS ROUGHLY THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF NORTH TEXAS WHERE A WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH RESIDES. /ISSUED 247 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/ A BROAD LONGWAVE MID-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDED FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI. TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS TODAY WITH A POSITIVE TILTED RIDGE ANCHORED WEST OVER THE ROCKIES. TO THE LOWER-MID 90S NORTH OF I-20 WHERE SUNSHINE HAS BEEN MORE ABUNDANT.
740 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015 A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH NORTHWEST MAINE LATER TONIGHT.
959 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015 SKIES WILL CLEAR ACROSS THE REGION AS THE UPPER TROUGH FILLS AND MOVES TO THE EAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN RETURN WITH WARM AND GENERALLY DRY WEATHER PERSISTING THROUGH THE COMING WEEK. SKIES WILL CLEAR ACROSS THE REGION AS THE UPPER TROUGH FILLS AND MOVES EAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S WITH UPPER 60S NEAR THE LAKESHORES. THE SOUTHERN PLAINS UPPER RIDGE WILL UNDERGO STEADY DOWNSTREAM AMPLIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS PROCESS WILL EFFECTIVELY PUSH AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER GREAT LAKES MONDAY. WITH DAYTIME READINGS REACHING THE LOWER TO MID 80S. COURTESY OF PERSISTENT SURFACE-BASED RIDGING FIRMLY ANCHORED ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE NATION AND WESTERN ATLANTIC. AND A CORRESPONDING BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DRAPED ACROSS AREAS EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
Vapor imagery depicts smaller scale circulation within the larger scale trough and this feature is likely to have aided in the uptick in convective coverage this afternoon and evening.
BEHIND THIS TROUGH. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY CENTERED NEAR THE ALASKAN PANHANDLE IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY DIG SOUTH ALONG THE WEST COAST THROUGH MIDWEEK.
BUT WITH UPPER RIDGE AND LACK OF ORGANIZED SURFACE FEATURES ONLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS EXPECTED WITH DIURNAL TREND. VERY SUMMERLIKE WEATHER PATTERN THIS PERIOD WITH A WEAK UPPER RIDGE DOMINATING THE AREA. THE UPPER RIDGE AND LACK OF ANY SURFACE BOUNDARIES WILL TEND TO SUPPRESS ORGANIZED CONVECTION.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ORIENTED FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTHEAST IS NOT STRONG ENOUGH TO LIMIT PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
Models do hang on to some weak upper level energy underneath an upper level ridge on Monday and while I wouldn't completely rule out some isolated convection, am not including in overall pop forecast at this time. This upper level weak energy will linger over the area within the upper level ridge through midweek, but precipitation chances again look to be pretty low at this time.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL INHIBIT ANY SUBSTANTIAL EASTWARD PROGRESS OF THE FRONT.
ONLY EXCEPTION IS CLOSER TO THE PLATEAU AND THUS CSV WHERE A WEAK UPPER LOW IS LOCATED. CLOUD COVER AND ISOLATED SHRA FROM THAT COULD STILL AFFECT CSV THROUGH ROUGHLY 12Z AS THE UPPER LOW PUSHES NORTHWARD INTO KY.
821 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015 ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF TONIGHT, AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE NORTHEAST. ALTHOUGH WEAKENING/SHEARING OUT WITH TIME, AN UPPER- LEVEL TROUGH IS STILL EVIDENT FROM THE LOWER LAKES REGION EASTWARD TO NY THIS EVENING. RIDGE AXIS SLIDES EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT, BRINGING AN END TO ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER NY/PA. A TROF WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE WYOMING VALLEY AS IT WASHES OUT MONDAY AFTERNOON, PERHAPS SPURRING AN ISOLATED SHOWER.
WINDS WILL STAY UP A BIT TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF THE COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT/TOMORROW.
UPPER TROUGHING IS SITUATED OVER THE PACIFIC NW. WHAT IS LEFT OF THE COLD FRONT STRETCHES FROM EASTERN MO DOWN INTO SW OK WITH A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE RED RIVER. PATTERN IS EXPECTED REMAIN FAIRLY STABLE THROUGH THESE EXTENDED PERIODS WITH UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE NW CONUS WITH A BROAD AREA OF RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEAST. LAWSON UPPER RIDGE ALOFT WILL REMAIN ANCHORED JUST NORTHWEST OF THE AREA WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTHEAST OVER ARKANSAS.
1253 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015 A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH NORTHWEST MAINE LATER TONIGHT.
MUCH OF THE TIME DRY CONDITIONS LOOK TO PREVAIL WITH HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING IN AND NO MAJOR SYSTEMS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA. WE WILL HAVE A GOOD DEAL OF SUBSIDENCE AROUND UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE WHICH WILL LIMIT THE VERTICAL EXTENT OF ANY CU DEVELOPMENT. THE MODELS ARE ALL HOLDING ON TO A WEAK UPPER WAVE ACROSS INDIANA THAT WAS LEFT BY THE CURRENTLY DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH. FEATURING A TROUGH IN THE WEST AND RIDGE IN THE EAST. WITH LITTLE SYNOPTIC FORCING UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE.
839 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVERHEAD TONIGHT. MEDIUM MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS CONTINUES TO PIVOT EAST INTO WI. MEDIUM 588DM 500 MILLIBAR RIDGE WILL DOMINATE.