Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Visible satellite imagery continues to depict an area of low pressure at H500, via spiraling cloud cover overtop Ardmore area. Expecting temps to remain on the cooler side today thanks to evaporational cooling and abundant cloud cover. Warmest temps this afternoon should be over N/NWrn locations, where more sunshine is expected, and cooler readings further S/SE, associated with cloud cover/light precipitation.
Mostly sunny skies for much of the day will eventually fill with cirrus, especially across southern KY, from an upper low tracking from TX into the Gulf States.
At 230 PM, temperatures were on the cooler side and winds were breezy after a frontal passage this morning. An upper level trough will advance rapidly out of the Rockies and through the Dakotas/Minnesota Tuesday.
Clear skies, recent rainfall and below freezing temperatures are leading to patchy freezing fog across much of the Mid-South this morning. Where the freezing fog becomes more dense a slick bridge or overpass is possible. Higher clouds associated with the approaching upper low will push into western sections this afternoon while lower clouds over AL will approach from the east as soon as this morning. By 00z the upper low will be near the ARKLATEX and will then track south of the Mid-South tonight into early Tuesday. Temps will be warmer with more cloud cover tonight and lows will range from around freezing north to near 40 south.
This has allowed for another night of efficient cooling although slightly warmer than yesterday morning. As two systems exit the region the ridge will build back over the area today allowing for temperatures to warm up slightly compared to yesterday. The models continue to struggle with the higher snow covered valleys so have decreased highs by a few degrees at those locations. A low amplitude mid-level ridge of high pressure will persist over the West ahead of a closed mid-level low centered several hundred miles off the coast of Oregon tomorrow.
As a result, temperatures today ran slightly warmer than model guidance. Despite the slightly warmer temperatures this afternoon, good radiational cooling (calm winds and clear skies) tonight will allow temperatures to drop into the upper 30s to near 40 in the Brooks/Kenedy County Ranches and generally middle to upper 40s elsewhere. Aloft, an H5 ridge will be moseying eastward across northern Mexico tonight into Tuesday. The northwesterly flow around the ridge will aid in the arrival of some mid to high level clouds later Tuesday afternoon. As of now, banking on the clouds arriving too late in the day to influence daytime highs Tuesday too much, so have gone a bit warmer than the latest NBM.
336 PM EST Mon Dec 20 2021 Water vapor imagery highlights a potent cyclone over east Texas, aiding cyclogenesis over the central Gulf of Mexico. Strong thunderstorms along the low are thriving ahead of sharp low-level cyclonic curvature, and within a zone of moist southeasterly confluence. Southeast to south winds will increase late tonight as the low strengthens over the eastern Gulf.
Surface pressure continues to rise as high pressure builds in. Winds will diminish during the day in the west with the high pressure crossing the area but remain breezy east. Warmer temperatures expected mid-week with a cool down by the weekend. Good agreement exists in building heights mid-week with warmer than normal temperatures developing over the region.
(This evening through Tuesday) An upper low is over northeastern Texas early this afternoon, and is moving toward the Ark-La-Tex. Any patchy fog will burn off by mid-morning, and our area can expect mostly sunny skies and warmer temperatures on Tuesday. Expect afternoon highs to range from the upper 60s in some of our eastern counties, to the lower 70s across most of the area farther west and south. (Tuesday night through next Monday) A dry and significant warming trend will take place this week, with much warmer than normal temperatures for Christmas Eve and Christmas Day.
Models haven't handled this snow potential well, but this feature will most likely continue tracking slowly east/southeastward through the morning, before gradually fading as forcing shifts away and drier air moves in with building high pressure.
109 PM MST Mon Dec 20 2021 Synoptic set-up has an upper trough over central Canada with a vort max dropping southeast over Alberta.
1051 AM EST Mon Dec 20 2021 High pressure in place over the Mid-Atlantic to start the week.
(This evening through Tuesday) Upper low over northeast Texas will continue to slowly shift east of our forecast area. This will be followed by decreasing clouds, and with light winds near and behind a weak frontal boundary, below freezing temperatures can be expected tonight. Another weak cold front will move into northern Oklahoma Tuesday afternoon, stalling and undergoing frontolysis across southern Oklahoma or northern Texas tomorrow night.
As the upper level low moves off to the east of the region upper level ridging will begin to build in from the west. Clear skies and light winds will allow for most areas to drop to near or below freezing tonight.
234 PM CST Mon Dec 20 2021 A frontal boundary moving across the forecast area this afternoon will usher in some drier air and as high pressure settles across the region tonight we expect a period of good radiational cooling. We don't expect a significant cool down with this frontal boundary and afternoon highs are expected to remain above normal for late December, ranging from the low to mid 50s for most areas. This frontal boundary will allow high pressure to build in across eastern Kansas Tue night setting up the potential for another night with strong radiational cooling.
Other models including CAMs have not been quite as far south, with some runs like the NAMNest still keeping things north near the Highway 2 corridor. Ensemble solutions such as the NBM and HREF have much of the snow ending up from the Highway 200 area into west central Minnesota. The upper trough quickly moves into the Great Lakes tomorrow, and snow should be done even in our eastern counties before noon. Temps on Tuesday will be a bit warmer than today but with the winds the wind chill will stay below zero. Return flow and a rebounding upper ridge will help bring more seasonable temperatures to the region.
117 PM EST Mon Dec 20 2021 High pressure in place over the Mid-Atlantic to start the week.
There is a cold front that is moving into northeast NE at 2 am, which will move through the forecast area this morning. High temperatures will range from the upper 20s in northeast NE to the lower 40s in southeast NE and southwest IA.
The warming will be somewhat tempered by the high clouds. Highs today will be near normal but clouds will continue to increase as an upper level low pressure system over east Texas moves east into the lower Mississippi Valley by this evening.
Ridging to the west will make its way here Monday night into early Tuesday morning, with a low pressure system on its tail. A short wave trough will come out of southwestern Canada in the zonal flow and come across the Upper Midwest Tuesday. This looks to be a rather compact and strong short wave trough that should produce a round of moderate to strong pv advection in the 500- 300 mb layer as it comes across.
A ridge will begin building in this afternoon with warmer temperatures in tow. The ridge will continue building on Tuesday but easterly surface winds will inhibit us from warming more than 5 degrees above Monday's high temperatures.
The Short Term forecast period will remain quiet with only weak cold front passages (one which was already underway this afternoon and a second front later in the afternoon Tuesday). An upper level low spinning across the northeastern half of Texas was of no consequence to the sensible weather up across our area of southwest Kansas. As mentioned at the top, a second cold front will push south during the afternoon hours Tuesday, which will be nearly identical to today's front (only a little later in the day). diurnal cycle, most areas will be 8 to 13 degrees warmer than today for afternoon highs.
106 PM EST Mon Dec 20 2021 Building high pressure will support dry and seasonable conditions through the majority of the week. Mostly sunny skies are expected through the rest of the day under the high pressure. High pressure should maintain dry weather across the area through tonight with lows dropping into the mid 20s under clear skies and light winds. This will make for low temps slightly warmer than anticipated.
Northwesterly flow aloft will persist into Tuesday, veering slightly from today as the upper low currently located across northeastern Texas and southeastern Oklahoma translates to the Deep South by Tuesday afternoon. Given the pattern, we have favored the warmer side of guidance with highs in the upper 60s and lower 70s. Dry and warm conditions are forecast throughout the remainder of the week as the CWA remains in the northern periphery of a strengthening sub-tropical ridge over the northeastern Pacific Ocean.
A weak cold front currently approaching the Illinois River will settle southeastward into central Illinois tonight. Current dewpoints east of I-55 are slightly higher than previously forecast in the lower 30s. Given expected placement of front later tonight and better agreement among the high-res models, have added fog to the forecast everywhere along/south of a Rantoul. With temperatures well below freezing in the middle 20s, scattered slick spots may develop on area roadways toward dawn. especially on bridges and overpasses. After the morning fog dissipates, a return to mostly sunny and dry weather is anticipated by Tuesday afternoon with highs topping out in the lower to middle 40s. The next wave and its associated cold front will quickly arrive by Tuesday evening.
With a mid/upper-level trough moving along the northern Gulf Coast tonight, expect cloud cover to expand this evening and through the overnight hours, resulting in a mainly overcast sky. These clouds should help to actually limit cooling despite the chilly air mass in place and as a result only expect lows to drop off into the lower 30s by early Tuesday morning. A few pockets of light rain will pass across mainly southern portions of the Tennessee Valley region during the morning hours on Tuesday as a low pressure system passes just south of the area.
323 PM EST Mon Dec 20 2021 High pressure will control the weather for most of the week.
A large area of high pressure covered a huge chunk of the eastern CONUS, with 06z surface analysis showing it stretching all the way from Ontario Canada into southwest Texas. We are just on the western fringes of this high, and were enjoying a somewhat milder night with thanks to a southerly breeze and mid to high level clouds. [Key Messages] *Cold front moves through the area today, but no significant weather impacts are expected. [Discussion] Main concern for the short term period (though quite honestly not much of one to begin with really) is a cold front passage that will occur across the area this evening. Eventually, both of these jets will merge later in the week as ridging increases ahead of a trough entering the western CONUS.
Drizzle and light showers will move through the forecast area this afternoon with heavier widespread showers with the potential for embedded thunderstorms will build in overnight and into Tuesday morning with the highest likelihoods for heavier precipitation and stronger storms occuring south of the I-10 corridor.
08Z water vapor imagery showed a split flow with the northern stream over the northern tier of the country and an upper low over TX. Surface observations showed a ridge of high pressure stretching from the TX Big Bend through the middle MS river valley. There isn't much change in the forecast with dry weather persisting and temps trending warmer for the later half of the work week.
1132 AM CST Mon Dec 20 2021 Key Message * Quiet weather continues * Record warm Christmas Eve? * Cooler for Christmas Day, but still well above normal. In the mid levels a zonal flow over the area is interrupted by a closed low over the ArkLaTex region.
Expect winds to continue to shift and become more northerly through the morning hours as a cold front tracks south across the local area. These northerly winds will also advect in a cooler airmass. with highs struggling to reach freezing across our north. is today is expected to be the coolest day of the next 7 days as heights aloft begin to build by mid- week as a transitory ridge of high pressure transitions across the local area bringing dry and more mild weather to the local area.
Mild temperatures already in the valley will allow for slight warmer max temperatures today. Inversion will develop tonight as the high pressure builds, which will allow for the development of fog/stratus in the lower valleys. Model guidance shows the highest probability of stratus in the Lower Treasure Valley along with Baker Valley and Burns.
High pressure will quickly move through NE Montana this morning. High pressure moves through the area on Tuesday with partly cloudy skies and temperatures slightly below normal.
1120 AM CST Mon Dec 20 2021 Water vapor imagery currently shows an upper impulse tracking across central TX with upper ridging over the Great Basin. At the surface, cold front extends from central MN into northern Nebraska. Cold front over the Northern Plains will continue tracking south and will move through most of the forecast area this afternoon, flipping winds around to the north. Ahead of this feature above normal temps will overspread the region on Thu with a cold front expected to move through on Fri. A couple of weak cold fronts will move south across the area.
129 PM EST Mon Dec 20 2021 High pressure through Tuesday.
Will the CAPE be there, or will the slightly cooler temps limit the instability? How far (and when) will the warm front migrate northward? Will dry air wrapping into the system undercut updrafts, allowing only an overrunning stratiform rain event at best? These are all questions that remain. As an area of low pressure forms in the Gulf, the tightening pressure gradient is expected to lead to increasing winds and seas areawide.
Fresh southwesterly breezes and strong thunderstorms are possible on Tuesday in response to a low pressure system moving east across Florida.
Another narrower band will develop along a southward moving cold front over southeastern Montana, grazing southwest North Dakota with an inch of snow.
/issued 251 AM CST Mon Dec 20 2021/ An upper level low will still be overhead by sunrise this morning but will move over North Texas by this afternoon. We will still be under the influence of this low with lower heights overhead today.
319 PM EST Mon Dec 20 2021 High pressure will maintain dry and seasonable conditions through mid week. That flow is in response to low pressure digging rapidly toward and across the Great Lakes tonight. The systems cold front s projected to encroach on the Upper Ohio in the predawn of Tuesday, but the only weather expected in an increase in low, and mid level cloudiness, mainly north of I 70.
The next cold front will pass western Kansas Tuesday morning. This air mass will be more well mixed and not as cool, with highs ranging from near 50 around Hays to the lower to mid 60s at Elkhart.
252 PM CST Mon Dec 20 2021 As of 02:30 pm CST, water vapor imagery shows an upper low over the Arklatex region bringing precipitation to the area. A weak cold front has made its way through northeast Kansas and has shifted winds out of the north, helping to keep temperatures in the upper 40s.
first with a ridge west and a trough east. By late week though broad ridging will expand east into the region setting the stage for a warm Christmas for the Ohio Valley as winter remains nowhere to be found in the near term.
Despite the warmer temperatures today, another chilly night is ahead tonight as radiational cooling is maximized with light winds and clear skies, lows in the middle 20s to upper 30s across the region. Ridging continues to build into Tuesday, and given light downsloping surface flow, temperatures will top out in the upper 60s to lower 70s Tuesday afternoon, several degrees warmer than today and around 10-12 degrees above normal for late December.
205 PM EST Mon Dec 20 2021 High pressure will persist into Tuesday with a slight warming trend into Tuesday.
More clouds will move in overnight as an upper low situated to our southwest traverses the Gulf Coast states. These clouds should keep us warmer than we would otherwise get tonight and they should also keep any fog development patchy at best.
An intense upper level low pressure system will continue to track along the Interstate 20 corridor the next couple of days. This feature will force a dry continental airmass through the Yucatan Peninsula, scouring the Gulf of Mexico of it's deep moisture in the lower trop. Light south breezes will continue into Tuesday prior to a weak cold front that will swing through the area Tuesday evening.
247 PM EST Mon Dec 20 2021 High pressure is building into the Commonwealth and will yield dry and seasonably chilly weather that will last most of the upcoming week. Flat ridging/zonal flow aloft is progged for Tuesday, supporting continued dry and mild conditions. GEFS 2m temp anomalies indicate highs will be a few degrees above average, ranging from the upper 30s over the northern mountains, to the mid 40s in the Lower Susq Valley.
1139 AM CST Mon Dec 20 2021 Cold front currently moving through the area is providing for some uptick in north/northwest winds behind it. Through the daytime hours, 925 mb temperatures quite a bit cooler than yesterday thanks to persistent CAA and will keep most locations in the 20s for highs.
Ridging will start to build over the area Monday night helping to promote clearing skies and warmer temperatures.
502 PM CST Mon Dec 20 2021 (This evening through Tuesday) An upper low is over northeastern Texas early this afternoon, and is moving toward the Ark-La-Tex. Any patchy fog will burn off by mid-morning, and our area can expect mostly sunny skies and warmer temperatures on Tuesday. Expect afternoon highs to range from the upper 60s in some of our eastern counties, to the lower 70s across most of the area farther west and south. (Tuesday night through next Monday) A dry and significant warming trend will take place this week, with much warmer than normal temperatures for Christmas Eve and Christmas Day.
Additionally, high clouds are streaming into Northern California as the much advertised cold upper level trough is deepening just off of the West Coast. Ensemble guidance is in good agreement that the axis of the trough is going to linger off of the coast through the period.
710 PM EST Mon Dec 20 2021 High pressure will maintain dry and seasonable conditions through mid week. That flow is in response to low pressure digging rapidly toward and across the Great Lakes tonight. The systems cold front s projected to encroach on the Upper Ohio in the predawn of Tuesday, but the only weather expected in an increase in low, and mid level cloudiness, mainly north of I 70.
The trend towards above normal temperatures returns along with a continuation of the dry weather for Tuesday through Monday as an upper level ridge of high pressure prevails across the region, including parts of the Intermountain West and Rocky Mountain states.
912 PM EST Mon Dec 20 2021 High pressure through Tuesday.
The ridge is departing the region with a trough starting to take dominance over the west. This trough will bring unsettled winter weather to the silver state midweek through at least Christmas. A ridge is slowly departing the region with today and Tuesday morning being the last gasp of fair weather for the silver state. A trough is setting up off the west coast and will start to impact NV late on Tuesday.
757 PM CST Mon Dec 20 2021 Water vapor imagery depicted an upper low over the ArkLaTex region. A warm conveyor belt within the upper diffluence zone east of the low was producing fairly widespread showers across MS into AR. The low is forecast to move east-southeast into southern MS by 12Z/21. Temperatures have slowly dipped into the upper 30s northeast to the lower to middle 40s southwest across our forecast area, and may dip a few degrees more overnight into the middle to upper 30s. A few pockets of light rain will pass across mainly southern portions of the Tennessee Valley region during the morning hours on Tuesday as a low pressure system passes just south of the area.
The low will be over the western Dakotas by midnight or so, then track to the eastern Dakotas by sunrise Tuesday morning before exiting to the east by midday Tuesday. High pressure moves back in Tuesday afternoon and remains in place Tuesday night.
Tonight into Tuesday will be a quiet period for our region as high pressure pushes into our area as a low spins off the coast. By Tuesday, things become a little more interesting as the low to our west finally makes an attempt to move onshore. At this time however, we're expecting minor snow impacts in California and the higher terrain in California.
/EC/ An upper low now centered over East Texas, will slowly move eastward into the ArkLaMiss area this afternoon through tonight. Light rain has developed out ahead of the low and is currently moving into the western portions of the area. There could be some isolated areas of sleet, but with temperatures well above freezing expect no impacts. High temperatures on Tuesday will continue to be cool in the low to mid 50s.
520 PM CST Mon Dec 20 2021 A frontal boundary moving across the forecast area this afternoon will usher in some drier air and as high pressure settles across the region tonight we expect a period of good radiational cooling. We don't expect a significant cool down with this frontal boundary and afternoon highs are expected to remain above normal for late December, ranging from the low to mid 50s for most areas. This frontal boundary will allow high pressure to build in across eastern Kansas Tue night setting up the potential for another night with strong radiational cooling.
/issued 302 PM CST Mon Dec 20 2021/ An upper-level trough near the Arklatex will pass to the south of the CWA overnight, resulting in light rain showers late this afternoon into the overnight hours. Surface winds will remain from the northwest but increasing cloud cover will help keep temperatures a bit warmer tonight than what we saw this morning. Winds will veer to the west tomorrow with gradually clearing skies, allowing temperatures to warm into the lower 50s. With the trough moving east tomorrow, northwesterly flow will set up over the region as a broad, flat ridge develops over the Southern Rockies.
746 PM EST Mon Dec 20 2021 High pressure will control the weather for most of the week.
The next cold front, currently across srn British Columbia, will move through wrn and ncntl Nebraska Tuesday morning. The high pressure Tuesday will cool h850mb temperatures down to the low single digits above and below zero Celsius. Temperatures tonight fall into the teens and 20s this evening and then rise toward the freezing mark by morning. The high temperature forecast Tuesday came in a couple of degrees cooler than the previous forecast. It is also a couple of degrees cooler than the guidance blend.
544 PM CST Mon Dec 20 2021 Latest 19z surface analysis shows weak cold front extending from over Lake Superior to southern Iowa. Parade of short wave troughs continue this week with lower amplitude flow.
641 PM CST Mon Dec 20 2021 Expect a trough to pass to our south later tonight allowing showers to develop in north Mississippi. /issued 302 PM CST Mon Dec 20 2021/ An upper-level trough near the Arklatex will pass to the south of the CWA overnight, resulting in light rain showers late this afternoon into the overnight hours. Surface winds will remain from the northwest but increasing cloud cover will help keep temperatures a bit warmer tonight than what we saw this morning. Winds will veer to the west tomorrow with gradually clearing skies, allowing temperatures to warm into the lower 50s. With the trough moving east tomorrow, northwesterly flow will set up over the region as a broad, flat ridge develops over the Southern Rockies.