Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
638 PM EDT Thu Nov 4 2021 Dry, cool weather is expected through Friday under high pressure. A brief return to zonal flow is anticipated, with southwesterly wind at the surface allowing for warmer weather mid-weekend. Long range ensembles indicate that temperature will gradually rise as high pressure maintains its impact through middle of the week.
Northwest flow will continue over western Kansas through the short term with upper level ridging building over the Rockies. At the surface, lee troughing will be found across eastern Colorado bringing southerly winds to western Kansas through tomorrow. As for temperatures, lows tonight look to dip into the 30s with highs tomorrow ranging ranging from the low 60s across central Kansas to low 70s along the KS/CO border. Mostly clear skies and dry conditions continue this weekend as an upper level ridge slides over the Plains. The boundary layer is very warm with low relative humidity just above the surface through the lowest several thousand feet.
601 PM CDT Thu Nov 4 2021 A pattern change will unfold over the next 24-36 hours as the positively tilted longwave trof centered through the eastern CONUS continues to progress eastward and height rises aloft begin across the region tonight.
Showers have mostly dissipated across the area except for localized showers in Shasta and Tehama Counties due to warm air advection behind the trough. Cooler temperatures are forecast overnight with minimum temperatures tomorrow morning in the low to mid 40s across the Valley and foothills and 20s to 40s in the mountains. Zonal flow remains over Northern California tomorrow as longwave troughing forms in the eastern Pacific.
446 PM MDT Thu Nov 4 2021 H5 ridge continues to slowly drift east across the central Plains today. It should clip the NW corner of the state, bringing a dusting to an inch of snow to the higher elevations of the Tetons and Absarokas through sunrise Friday. The westerly flow will also help to finally carve out some of the low clouds that have been stuck in Jackson Hole this afternoon, so some better visibilities returning for Friday.
636 PM CDT Thu Nov 4 2021 Key Messages: 1) Below freezing temperatures east of Highway 65 corridor tonight and over the eastern Ozarks on Friday night. As a result, areas primarily east of the Highway 65 corridor will once again see a chilly night with lows bottoming out in the upper 20s to low 30s locations along and west of Highway 65 see temperatures in the mid 30s. While low temperatures will be on the upward trend Friday night, some locations across the eastern Ozarks could still see lows below freezing given clear skies.
708 PM CDT Thu Nov 4 2021 High pressure continues to dominate the area keeping skies dry for the next few days. Midlevel convergence along the west side of the high keeps overcast skies around most of the area this afternoon. The high slowly moves eastward over the weekend. Flow intensifies out of the SW CONUS advecting warmer air into the region.
High pressure will continue to build into the area overnight, reducing wind speeds by 05/10Z and allowing a chance for patchy frost to develop at KTXK.
It's possible a few locations across far northeast Oklahoma could briefly drop to near or just below freezing but confidence is not high enough to include in a warning at this time given latest cloud trends.
614 PM CDT Thu Nov 4 2021 High pressure will dominate this TAF cycle with widespread VFR conditions and generally light winds expected.
Low level moisture should be sufficient for cloud development though, and the areas that remained cooler today could still see some fog as the temperatures shouldn't have much trouble dropping to the crossover after sunset given that there's only a 5-7 degree dewpoint depression at mid afternoon today.
low pressure continues to move eastward into western Montana and eastern Idaho.
IR imagery shows high clouds aloft over LA, streaming east to northeast on the forward flank of the mid-level trough axis. The high clouds should progress eastward, while the lower clouds will gradually erode from N to S this evening.
644 PM CDT Thu Nov 4 2021 Currently have an upper trough swinging across the Great Lakes region with upper ridging about to move into the Rockies. At the surface, ridging extends from the Ohio Valley into the Arklatex region with Lee troughing continuing to deepen. Weak upper ridging is still expected to transition to southwest flow aloft for Sat into Sun which will lead to above normal temps. Because it's been so cool lately, we forget that normal highs for this time of year are in the low 60s. Gusty south winds will accompany the warmer temps, especially on Sun, with gusts over 30 mph common.
A leeside trough is also in place at the surface over eastern WY, aiding in a tight pressure gradient. Otherwise, dry and mild conditions will be in place across the Cowboy State today as a transitional ridge builds over the region. The pattern will shift Saturday with southwest flow aloft, as the ridge exits eastward over the Plains. This pattern will be driven by a longwave trough over the EPAC.
A brief return to zonal flow aloft, and southwesterly wind at the surface, will provide warmer weather over the weekend.
321 AM CDT Fri Nov 5 2021 Early this morning, a low amplitude upper ridge axis was located over western North Dakota. A band of high clouds, associated with a surface warm front will continue to move east with the ridge axis through the morning. At the surface, a cold front will also move into the state this morning, crossing the forecast area by early this afternoon. As the cold front approaches, fog should diminish. With the cold front sweeping through today, expect temperatures to be a bit cooler than yesterday but still mild. Highs will range from the lower 50s to lower 60s. Saturday will see another transient ridge axis move overhead early in the day with a subtle wave making its way through late (this wave will only have some clouds associated with it and should remain mainly dry).
05/06Z TAF CYCLE VFR conds wl cont thanks to high pressure that wl persist ovr the region.
An upper trough over the southeastern portion of the US will continue progressing eastward through the near term period. At the surface, a low pressure system over the central Gulf will progress eastward towards Florida through the day on Friday and eventually off over the eastern Florida coast on Saturday. High pressure will then build into the southeastern CONUS behind the low. Lows tonight will drop into the mid to upper 40s north of I-10 and into the lower to mid 50s south of I-10. Even cooler lows are then anticipated Friday night, with temperatures in the lower to mid 40s inland and in the mid to upper 40s near the coast.
A cold front passing eastward through the area has produced lightning and gusty winds in Southwest Montana this evening.
The main effect will be the gusty northwest winds behind the surface cold front that moves across the CWA early this morning. A low-level thermal ridge will result in temperatures 10-20F above average for most of the CWA.
256 AM CDT Fri Nov 5 2021 As of 0730Z, the forecast area remains under northwest flow between a broad upper trough over the eastern half of the CONUS and weak ridging over the Four Corners region. At the surface, lee troughing has slowly deepened in the High Plains while high pressure is centered over the Lower Great Lakes. Temperatures warm further into the weekend as upper ridging dominates the area and WAA becomes better established.
314 AM CDT Fri Nov 5 2021 A clear sky will prevail today under northwest flow and rising heights aloft as a mid-level ridge pushes north into the Southern Plains. The southerly low-level flow will elevate temperatures further on Saturday, pushing highs into the low 60s. MRM By Saturday night the mid-Mississippi Valley will be locked in southwesterly flow, situated between a high over the lower Mississippi Valley and a trough over the High Plains.
1152 PM CDT Thu Nov 4 2021 Key Messages: 1) Below freezing temperatures east of Highway 65 corridor tonight and over the eastern Ozarks on Friday night. As a result, areas primarily east of the Highway 65 corridor will once again see a chilly night with lows bottoming out in the upper 20s to low 30s locations along and west of Highway 65 see temperatures in the mid 30s. While low temperatures will be on the upward trend Friday night, some locations across the eastern Ozarks could still see lows below freezing given clear skies.
306 AM CDT Fri Nov 5 2021 Broad corridor of sfc ridging extends from the NE U.
Sunshine taking its place will boost Friday's highs into the lower to middle 70s across Deep South Texas, which is a good 10 degrees below normal for early November. An H5 trough across the Southeast/eastern Gulf of Mexico and a developing ridge in northwestern Mexico will provide Deep South Texas with northerly flow aloft. As the low moves across Florida and into the Atlantic, the pressure gradient weakens over Deep South Texas.
329 AM EDT Fri Nov 5 2021 Warming trend begins today as the upper lever trough that has been entrenched over the region this past week finally slides into eastern Quebec.
Upper heights will build today as an upper ridge slides east across the desert southwest. To our north, an upper-level trough will move over the northern CONUS and help to form a lee cyclone over southern CO. This lee cyclone will result in winds becoming downslope over the region. GKendrick Upper ridging will bend squarely over the region on Saturday, complete with southerly breezes and plenty of sunshine (after perhaps early day fog across the southern and eastern zones). The second half of the weekend will be nice as well, though with a slight increase in winds speeds and temperatures as southwest flow aloft unfolds downstream of broad western troughing.
A lower level trough, followed by a surface cold front, will move across the state this morning. However, forecast soundings show poor mixing down to the surface during the morning as the trough passes, which will hinder gust strength. Areas to the north, such as Valentine, appear to have better mixing to the surface earlier in the day during the trough passage, which may result in higher winds and gusts in that area. An upper level ridge remains in place over the Great Plains through the weekend. On Saturday, continued warm air advection from the southwest will bring additional warm weather with highs in the low to mid 70s.
At the surface, A weak wedge of high pressure has set up and keeping low clouds and cool easterly flow across the area. The models are showing a closed low center developing over the central Gulf Tonight into Friday morning. This low center will move NE across the FL peninsula Friday night and off the FL east coast Sat. As this low center is moving across the FL peninsula Fri night good backside moisture will push NW into Central GA bringing precip to areas south and east of an Americus to Macon to August line. Otherwise ridge building aloft should keep us dry until the end of the period.
Latest surface analysis places widespread 1030mb high pressure center across a large portion of the eastern US while satellite shows the region under mostly clear skies. 1000-925mb thickness values will gradually increase overnight, so expect temperatures to be a degree or two warmer than what experienced this morning, with morning mins ranging from the mid 20s to around 30. General weak troughing will still rule the upper pattern which will help to keep temperatures below normal through Saturday.
244 AM MDT Fri Nov 5 2021 High pressure ridge aloft is shifting east of Colorado early this morning as upper trof moves across the Northern Rockies today. This will result in an increasing westerly flow over Colorado this morning with weak subsidence from the northern trof during the day. Peak winds from HRRR showing 40-50kt gusts in the higher mountains and east slopes this morning before decreasing this afternoon. Readings on the plains will be in the lower 70s this afternoon under mostly sunny skies after some early morning wave clouds. The weekend will feature dry and unseasonably warm weather conditions under a ridge of high pressure.
308 AM EDT Fri Nov 5 2021 High pressure will remain in place across the Ohio Valley region through the weekend. Most of the upper-level energy associated with the trough remains well enough north of our CWA that there should be limited influence on us. Other than a few passing clouds overnight, the forecast remains dry, with low temperatures dipping into the lower to middle 30s.
(Today and tonight) Lower clouds continue to linger over the area early this morning, with a few areas seeing some patchy fog develop throughout the morning, given the stable surface conditions and abundant moisture in the lower levels.
A deep trough of low pressure translating across the southeast United states has forced dry continental air all the way through the Yucatan Peninsula, scouring the entire Gulf of Mexico's typical humid airmass.
249 AM EDT Fri Nov 5 2021 High pressure builds in from the west through the weekend bringing cool and dry weather to New England.
The upper levels will feature rising heights and a reasonably amplified ridge which will approach from the west.
257 AM EDT Fri Nov 5 2021 An upper level trough will cross the region this morning.
A leeward trough will sharpen east of the Rockies ahead of this feature with winds turning southerly overnight across our area east of the trough. Otherwise the airmass is mild behind the front, and the added downslope component of the wind behind the front will actually cause temperatures to be warmer than today.
A broad area of cirroform cloudiness peripheral to the developing cyclone began to spread northward into the TN Valley late yesterday evening, and has significantly reduced the risk for both frost and subfreezing temperatures, with temperatures as of this writing ranging from the mid 30s/NW to the mid 40s/SE.
With a decent surface gradient out ahead of the trough, and enhanced mixing behind the trough, it will be a breezy day with winds at the top of the mixed layer running near 30 kts. Winds will diminish by tonight, and in the light southwesterly flow the potential for any fog should be much lower - and this is supported by soundings which indicate much drier air in the lowest levels. An absolutely beautiful weekend is in store as upper level ridging builds across the region.
(Today through Saturday afternoon) Warmer weather will arrive just in time for the weekend with temperatures climbing above normal by Saturday.
(Today through Saturday afternoon) Warmer weather will arrive just in time for the weekend with temperatures climbing above normal by Saturday. Dewpoints are expected to increase into the low to mid 40s again tonight across the Permian Basin offering another chance of patchy fog and low stratus early Saturday morning. Upper ridging will continue to strengthen over the region on Saturday afternoon leading to above normal highs in the mid to upper 70s and even a few 80s along and south of I-10.
Aloft, ridging will remain in place today, which will keep conditions dry across all of northeast Wisconsin.
Even warmer temperatures aloft advect in on Saturday, as an upper- level ridge axis moves overhead.
This cloud cover is courtesy of some cyclogenesis that is occurring with an area of low pressure over the eastern Gulf of Mexico that will move northeast overnight across the Florida peninsula. A classic baroclinic leaf pattern can be seen with the orientation of the high cloudiness in the satellite imagery. Models have been consistent on increasing the low level winds (925 mb) well north of the low into northern Alabama to between 10 and 15 knots overnight. In addition, these winds will advect higher dewpoints from the east and will keep things slightly warmer than originally expected near and south of the Tennessee river (in the lower 40s in some locations). High temperatures on Saturday should warm into the lower 60s under sunny skies.
354 AM EDT Fri Nov 5 2021 High pressure was centered over the northern Mid-Atlantic with Low pressure over the eastern Gulf of Mexico.
The lower CIGs look to hang on through late tonight, but should recover by early Friday morning. An upper trough over the southeastern portion of the US will continue progressing eastward through the near term period. At the surface, a low pressure system over the central Gulf will progress eastward towards Florida through the day on Friday and eventually off over the eastern Florida coast on Saturday. High pressure will then build into the southeastern CONUS behind the low. Lows tonight will drop into the mid to upper 40s north of I-10 and into the lower to mid 50s south of I-10. Even cooler lows are then anticipated Friday night, with temperatures in the lower to mid 40s inland and in the mid to upper 40s near the coast.
Longwave trough axis is now east of the CWA. At the base of that trough in the southwest Gulf of Mexico, a low is trying to develop. While doing so, it will be still tracking eastward albeit lagging behind the northern portion of the trough.
227 AM CDT Fri Nov 5 2021 High pressure will remain in control of our weather.
245 AM CDT Fri Nov 5 2021 Sunny skies and cool temperatures are expected today, as a high pressure ridge begins to shift east of the region. 2 am readings were in the lower 30s. The high pressure ridge that brought the seasonably cold airmass to the region this week will gradually lose influence as it shifts east, being replaced by weak warm advection on south flow developing from the west by afternoon.
300 AM CDT Fri Nov 5 2021 As of 0730Z, the forecast area remains under northwest flow between a broad upper trough over the eastern half of the CONUS and weak ridging over the Four Corners region. At the surface, lee troughing has slowly deepened in the High Plains while high pressure is centered over the Lower Great Lakes. Temperatures warm further into the weekend as upper ridging dominates the area and WAA becomes better established.
1231 AM CDT Fri Nov 5 2021 For the 05/06Z TAF period, VFR conditions prevail as high pressure continues to dominate at the sfc.
Freezing or near freezing temperatures expected early this morning. Will continue with the SPS to highlight the patchy dense fog (and possibly freezing fog) through the morning. Other impactful weather will be the near freezing to below freezing temperatures expected across the area this morning. Temperatures have been running a bit warmer than forecasted through this first half of the night.
ABM Chattanooga Airport, TN 56 38 60 39 64 / 0 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 57 34 59 36 61 / 0 0 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 56 35 59 37 61 / 0 0 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 56 29 58 30 60 / 0 0 0 0 0 NC.
Expect the warmer weather to continue into the weekend with persistent southerly flow and upper level ridging building in.
In any case, temperatures have been slowly falling, and are now in the lower to mid 30s area wide.
252 AM EDT Fri Nov 5 2021 Dry and cool but modifying air mass will remain in place as strong sfc ridging sprawls from eastern Texas to Nova Scotia. Temps will continue to moderate as the low-level air mass modifies and heights aloft gradually rise.
Strong gusty winds developing in the early morning hours will continue and expand across the eastern slopes and plains through late morning and early afternoon in the wake of a passing disturbance and cold front yesterday.
1042 PM MDT Thu Nov 4 2021 H5 ridge continues to slowly drift east across the central Plains today. It should clip the NW corner of the state, bringing a dusting to an inch of snow to the higher elevations of the Tetons and Absarokas through sunrise Friday. The westerly flow will also help to finally carve out some of the low clouds that have been stuck in Jackson Hole this afternoon, so some better visibilities returning for Friday. East of the divide low temperatures will be average with most lower elevations just below freezing through the period.
254 AM CDT Fri Nov 5 2021 Upper level ridging is currently building overhead as the pattern transitions towards well above average temperatures after spending this week much below average.
Amounts look very light, but can't rule out a few showers so will continue to keep the low POPs we had going. The west to southwest winds behind the backside of the trough will bring more warm air into the area, and lows tonight will stay in the 30s.
A cold front will move into eastern Oregon during the late afternoon hours bringing precipitation with it, along with gusty wind.
Highs tomorrow will be a few degrees warmer than we saw today with temperatures in the lower 50s across the area. The clear skies will help pull temperatures back below freezing for most by early Friday morning. Those near the city and right along the lake will likely stay above freezing with lows in the middle 30's. The steady SSW flow, with the aid of the sunshine and some midlevel height rises, will help temperatures climb into the lower 50's across the area Friday afternoon. Meanwhile, temperatures overnight and into early Saturday morning should stay above freezing. This slightly warmer morning will precede a pleasantly mild and rain-free weekend ahead. An upper level ridge will build across much of the central CONUS this weekend setting the stage for great weather conditions across the region.
Broad surface ridging has shifted out of the Great Lakes region with a tightening pressure gradient taking form across the upper Midwest. The warmer 925/850mb air mass is off to the west, so with the southerly flow we actually won't see much of an increase in low level WAA for today at least. Should be pretty solidly into the low 50s for southern Wisconsin for highs today.
Light winds and clear skies will promote optimal radiational cooling in many areas, especially sheltered outlying areas, and we should see temperatures drop into the low/mid 30s by morning, especially east of I-35. Friday will feature mostly sunny skies across the region with our ridge axis slowly sliding eastward through the day. Highs will top out in the lower 60s for most locations. Persistent mid level ridging through Saturday will keep things quiet although temperatures will continue to warm into the weekend with highs in the upper 60s/lower 70s by Saturday afternoon.
Ridging from southern California to Minnesota. At the surface, high pressure centered over Pennsylvania, with low pressure over the Canadian Prairie provinces. Low pressure was also developing over the central Gulf of Mexico.
Southwest flow will keep the warmer temperatures around so expect highs to be slightly higher than yesterday.
1012 PM CDT Thu Nov 4 2021 A pattern change will unfold over the next 24-36 hours as the positively tilted longwave trof centered through the eastern CONUS continues to progress eastward and height rises aloft begin across the region tonight. As part of the large scale pattern evolution a strong ULJ emanating in the Pacific will progress through the northern Rockies and northern Plains, and send a migratory short wave trof into and through the upper/mid MS Valley Friday night/early Saturday. This whole evolution will result in a gradual eastward shift of the "cold" elongated surface/lower tropospheric high pressure system that has been dominating the area, and eventual onset of weak low-level WAA on Friday. Until then we have another chilly night on tap with the southwest extension of the high still in control of sensible weather.
Light freezing temps were also observed on the Lomax TTU Mesonet, this looks to be localized and thus we have held off on a warning for Howard Co. (Today through Saturday afternoon) Warmer weather will arrive just in time for the weekend with temperatures climbing above normal by Saturday. Dewpoints are expected to increase into the low to mid 40s again tonight across the Permian Basin offering another chance of patchy fog and low stratus early Saturday morning. Upper ridging will continue to strengthen over the region on Saturday afternoon leading to above normal highs in the mid to upper 70s and even a few 80s along and south of I-10.