Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Chances for severe storms are lower today than yesterday with cooler temperatures holding down convective potential. Temperatures this afternoon will be 10 to 15 degrees cooler than average, in the 60s to low 70s. A trough will continue to slowly move across the the Northern Rockies. While the trough will remain west of the area today, more impulses of energy will move across the area. Independence Day looks to be another showery day as the trough moves across the area. Temperatures through the period will continue to be cooler than normal through the period.
136 PM PDT Wed Jul 3 2019 Continued troughing over west coast will provide the forecast area with dry, northwest flow aloft.
Boundary is expected to remain in place into the day tomorrow, so areas north of the front will continue in the higher humidity and threat for showers and thunderstorms, while areas south of the front remain dry.
High pressure aloft will remain dominate; nevertheless, there remains a weak trough aloft just to our east. (Thursday night through Wednesday) Mostly dry and warm conditions continue with upper ridging centered over West Central Texas.
The highest coverage looks to be around CKV for the early part of the afternoon.
Meanwhile, a trough over the Atlantic states reaches down into Florida and daily augmented by daytime heating. Expect day time highs to be in the lower 90s with dew points in the mid 70s. Keys waters will remain a region of relatively flat pressure gradients with a trough to the north and highs off to our west and east.
The mid/upper level ridge begins to breakdown late this weekend allowing a slow-moving cold front to move through the CWA.
342 PM EDT Wed Jul 3 2019 A large upper level ridge will keep the region warm and humid for the rest of the week.
As temperatures reached the mid 80s with dewpoints in the lower to mid 70s, convective temperatures were reached today. For now, in the early afternoon, the highest coverage is in the southern CWA, but this may shift north with time, as there are many hours left of high CAPE, low shear convection. CAPE values on the SPC mesoanalysis page are now 4000 to 4500 ! Lows tonight, like last night are set for the lower to mid 70s, and highs Thursday are expected in the mid to upper 80s, in a persistence forecast.
Heat Advisory likely again for tomorrow afternoon under continued influence of high pressure across the region.
/issued 217 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2019/ An upper level ridge of high pressure will be anchored across the forecast area the next seven days. Despite the presence of the ridge, low level moisture and weak upper level disturbances trapped within the ridge will produce the risk of isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms each day. With the persistent ridge in the area, temperatures are expected to be above normal the next 7 days.
1033 PM EDT Wed Jul 3 2019 A large upper level ridge will keep the region warm and humid for the rest of the week.
754 PM EDT Wed Jul 3 2019 A large upper level ridge will keep the region warm and humid for the rest of the week.
The deeper marine layer originates from a trough of low pressure moving through the West today, which has helped generate the increase in onshore flow and the coastal eddy.
With yet another diurnal based, cold pool/outflow boundary, and possible weak upper level disturbances passing over quasi upper level ridging pattern aloft, along with no real mesoscale to synoptic sfc features of note, hard to predict convection evolution thru remainder of evening into the early overnight hrs.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 72 92 74 91 / 20 30 30 60 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 70 90 71 89 / 30 30 40 50 Oak Ridge, TN 70 90 72 90 / 30 40 30 50 Tri Cities Airport, TN 68 87 68 87 / 30 30 30 50.
Although the mid-level ridge axis will migrate eastward with time, the warm and humid air mass lingers over the region as the main frontal boundary remains just off to the north.
Made some minor tweaks to the temps to account for the warmer values. Looks like another muggy night with temps/dewpoints staying in the lower 70's, maybe mid 70s in a few spots.
/Issued 332 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2019/ An upper level low continues to meander just west of the area, while a high pressure ridge builds in from the east. Tomorrow appears to be a bit drier to the west, with the precipitation expected mainly along a trough axis along a line near Victoria to Alice for tomorrow, with precipitation chances lowering by early tomorrow morning.
The persistent weak trough along the West Coast will help to keep temperatures close to average for the Fourth of July. The trough will gradually weaken which will bring some warming to the region by the end of the week.
Main upper trough over the interior northwest kept us breezy and cool today but the trough will fill tonight, and Thursday will be warmer.
627 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2019 Tonight: Complex pattern at the onset, with departing MCV, large cold pool juxtaposed with pocket of deeper moisture as evidenced in 1200 UTC soundings and approaching weak upper trough from the west. Warmer temperatures aloft may cap western half of area.
The models have less of a sea breeze for our holiday with the Bermuda ridge expanding Westward over our area. In response, the models show a weakness aloft for over AR/MO and has much of the QPF for Independence Day in the base of this trough across our Northern sections.
530 PM MDT Wed Jul 3 2019 A ridge centered over Texas will gradually build north and west through Thursday night while moderate trough moves from the Pacific Northwest to through the northern Great Basin.
(from previous) Light flow regime ascd with a weak ridge will lead to another day of boundary driven storms.
By tomorrow, expecting a lot of similar conditions to today with highs just reaching up to the low 90s across the area.
VFR conditions with BKN high clouds will prevail overnight with high pressure at the surface resulting in light and variable winds. Significantly less convection expected Thursday as upper level ridging expands across the gulf of Mexico. With PWATs remaining above normal and warm temperatures within a significant portion of the lower cloud layer, these thunderstorms will be capable of efficient rainfall production which could result in minor street flooding.
519 PM MDT Wed Jul 3 2019 Latest analysis has an upper low over the Pacific Northwest with a trough digging down the West Coast with weak upper ridging over the Mississippi Valley region, leaving the western High Plains in a west southwesterly flow pattern. At the surface, a stationary boundary/cold front remains draped across southwestern South Dakota and northwest SD, into eastern North Dakota. Should see storms move off the higher terrain into the forecast area later this afternoon/early evening as well.
High resolution models are less optimistic about convection in our area today as upper level ridging strengthens in our area, so have kept the mention of TS out of the TAFs for now. High pressure aloft will remain dominate; nevertheless, there remains a weak trough aloft just to our east.
1137 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2019 Tonight: Complex pattern at the onset, with departing MCV, large cold pool juxtaposed with pocket of deeper moisture as evidenced in 1200 UTC soundings and approaching weak upper trough from the west. Warmer temperatures aloft may cap western half of area.
Typical summertime weather will continue today under high pressure as diurnally-driven, scattered showers/storms return during the afternoon and evening hours.
Boundary is expected to remain in place into the day tomorrow, so areas north of the front will continue in the higher humidity and threat for showers and thunderstorms, while areas south of the front remain dry. Afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms will continue to be the trend through Friday as the trough across the northwestern CONUS begins to break down and move to the east.
Thunderstorms have exited the CWA this morning and now we settle back and let the deep ridging begin. More or less the same on Friday with afternoon temperatures a degree or so warmer.
Modest height falls and trough axis to our north will result in some upper level instability, but the surface convergence that was present yesterday will be hard to find today, leading to less coverage and less organization of any storms that are able to get going.
The high resolution convection allowing models (CAMs) really have not done a very good job the past 12 hours or more, which is not surprising. For tonight, using a blend of the high resolution models, it seems the area with the highest chance for storms will from southwest Iowa back into parts of east central NE. A cold front will be moving toward northeast NE later in the day and evening, so increased storm chances there for Thursday night. Temperatures will be cooler north of the front, mainly across northeast NE, on Friday.
Isolated thunderstorms expected to develop this afternoon and evening in unstable airmass along and ahead of surface trof/dryline which is expected to be positioned in western sections late this afternoon. Cold front makes an intrusion into at least northern part of forecast area on Friday, offering support for isolated to scattered thunderstorms Friday and Friday night.
Cooler temperatures with all the cloud cover and precipitation coverage.
Morning lows are expected to bottom out in the lower to mid 70s by daybreak and have adjusted forecast mins slightly to better reflect ongoing trends.
Although weak southwesterlies aloft will prevail as mentioned above, weak capping, steep mid level lapse rates, and sufficient enough instability present will support at least a slight chance for an isolated storm or two in a band of weak surface convergence associated with an anchored lee side trough. As for temperatures, little change is expected the the general air mass across the high plains today. Lows Thursday night are expected down into the 60s(F) and the lower 70s(F). However, the introduction of slightly cooler air behind the aforementioned weak frontal boundary will have an effect on highs going into the weekend.
Area will become increasingly under the influence of fair weather mid-level dry high pressure now over the central Gulf as it retrogrades slowly west.
Near the surface, an area of low pressure is located across southeast Colorado.
For Independence Day, we are looking at highs in the low to mid 90s, with a few upper 90s possible. Stronger upper level ridging is expected to move into our western counties, and the outflow boundary from the overnight thunderstorms could provide a focus for storms to develop off of later this afternoon. Lows temperatures will fall into the low 70s tonight.
High temperatures today will reach the upper 80s and lower 90s, while lows tonight drop into the lower 70s.
Southwest flow will persist over the area Thursday into Friday morning as a lee trough sits over the Front Range and a ridge remains in place over the Tri-State area. Independence Day will be hot with temperatures in the low 90s in northeastern Colorado to the upper 90s in northwestern Kansas. Thursday evening, a cold front will begin to move into the region from the north and a dryline will be situated over the Kansas- Colorado border.
A broad ridge extends from the Four Corners to the Ohio Valley, with multiple MCSs ongoing across the Southern Plains. A weakened ridge will remain in place over the Lower Mississippi Valley through at least tomorrow. The main ridge axis will begin to retrograde west on Friday and put us on the eastern periphery of the ridge.
This could enhance storm coverage yet again, but the wave has yet to eject out of the western CONUS trof and I don't have a ton of confidence as to when and where this wave will pass.
This high will keep the northern half of the forecast area dry this morning. Meanwhile, SW flow aloft will continue over the area today with an upper trough over Idaho. The trough moves across Montana tonight and Friday.
1045 PM MDT Wed Jul 3 2019 Latest analysis has an upper low over the Pacific Northwest with a trough digging down the West Coast with weak upper ridging over the Mississippi Valley region, leaving the western High Plains in a west southwesterly flow pattern. At the surface, a stationary boundary/cold front remains draped across southwestern South Dakota and northwest SD, into eastern North Dakota. Should see storms move off the higher terrain into the forecast area later this afternoon/early evening as well.
Although weak southwesterlies aloft will prevail as mentioned above, weak capping, steep mid level lapse rates, and sufficient enough instability present will support at least a slight chance for an isolated storm or two in a band of weak surface convergence associated with an anchored lee side trough. As for temperatures, little change is expected the the general air mass across the high plains today. Lows Thursday night are expected down into the 60s(F) and the lower 70s(F).
Typical summertime weather will continue today under high pressure as diurnally-driven scattered showers/storms return during the afternoon and evening hours.
High temperatures will rise into the low 90s south of I-80 and the low to upper 80s elsewhere.
Some of the high resolution models are suggesting more widespread thunderstorms, so this possibility will need to be monitored through the day tomorrow.
On Friday, we will remain in the hot, moist pattern, and models show an upper level trof moving over our region. This trof will also keep convection going into Friday night, although we should still see a gradual decrease in coverage due to loss of heating. With dew points in the lower to even middle 70s, heat indices will be in the upper 90s to around 100 degrees. The models are in good agreement on bringing a short wave trough into the area by the end of the week. Some solutions indicate the ridge will be forced farther south into the gulf while others indicate a split with the high. This forces high pressure to move over the east coast and the dominant high to retrograde westward into TX. Either way they do agree on the short wave trough rotating through the region.
Our region has been within an upper level weakness for the last few days and most models indicate ridging will begin to build over the area today. This will occur mainly over the higher terrain, but storm could organize and affect areas further east during the evening hours. Temperatures will be hot today, but maybe a few degrees cooler for areas that saw rain. Weak ridging will exist over the region into the weekend while Gulf moisture remains in place. It doesn't look like the ridge will be strong enough to suppress convection though.
444 AM EDT Thu Jul 4 2019 A weak and low amplitude inverted trough will pass westward across the Keys over the next 24-36 hours. The wave resembles a TUTT, but the upper level reflection is only a little more pronounced than the low level reflection. So most of the focus for showers and thunderstorms this morning will be from the Lower Keys out to the Dry Tortugas, including the adjacent Gulf and Straits.
A surface cold front drops down from the north Friday night.
A back door type cold front over southeast Lower Michigan was moving southwest. There should be more sun/insolation than yesterday and allow temperatures to reach near 90 degrees over the entire area as an upper level ridge attempts to rebuild into the region. Given the position of the ridge, believe the best chance for storms will be north of Highway 30. Afternoon dew points should remain in the 70s with heat indices in the lower to mid 90s.
Thursday will be drier as upper level ridging over the Gulf of Mexico expands westward.
Temperatures will fall into the lower to middle 60s by sunset outside of the Red River Valley with middle to upper 60s within the valley.
By this evening into Friday, all models and area forecast soundings show dry weather across the area as the subtropical ridge builds into the region.
Cloud cover under dirty ridge in wake of last nights convection has kept temps down and instability lower than expected today.
Upper level trough crossing the region on Friday will bring additional chances for showers and thunderstorms. The best chance for potential dry conditions will be over the weekend as high pressure drops over the Northern Plains.
259 AM EDT Thu Jul 4 2019 High pressure will hold over the region through Friday.
Typical summertime weather will continue today under high pressure as diurnally-driven scattered showers/storms return during the afternoon and evening hours. Although the mid-level ridge axis will migrate eastward with time, the warm and humid air mass lingers over the region as the main frontal boundary remains just off to the north.
It still looks like high pressure will build across the area for the upcoming weekend. This high will provide mainly dry conditions for much of the forecast area.
Deep layer ridging will retrograde from the eastern gulf to the western gulf by Friday night. Friday will be slightly closer to normal, with highs in the low- mid 90s.
For tonight, an upper low now located in southeastern Oregon will reach northwest Wyoming Friday morning. Mid level upper low from the short term arrives in southwest North Dakota Friday afternoon/evening, then weakens as it traverses into south central ND Friday night.
1142 PM MDT Wed Jul 3 2019 A ridge centered over Texas will gradually build north and west through Thursday night while moderate trough moves from the Pacific Northwest to through the northern Great Basin. The Pacific Northwest trough will move east through the northern Rockies and weaken considerably through Friday.
With time the low level flow becomes more southerly. There could be a few isolated showers and thunderstorms Friday morning, but better chances will hold off until the afternoon and overnight hours as an upper level trough paired with 500mb positive vorticity advection swings through.
A weather system over Oregon and Idaho will trail a cold front across Nevada this July <th>, cooling things off a bit, and producing thunderstorms and a few showers over northern and eastern Nevada. Weak dynamics will accompany a cold front extending from a low over southern Oregon and Idaho through today.
The synoptic pattern today features some flattening of the prevailing H5 ridge across the TN Valley and Southern Appalachian region as the primary axis shifts slightly east. At the surface, still looking at weak/mod high pressure spread about the region, while numerous remnant convective outflows settle in. Given that the ridge is flattened to some degree, would expect that subsidence is weakened as well, therefore did favor widespread chance pops based on a diurnal trend while also including some likely pops over the mtns. Generally, temperatures today will be slightly cooler, yet still a few degrees above normal levels.
Best coverage this afternoon will be over the higher elevations of east Tennessee where the mountains will add some orographic lift. Chattanooga Airport, TN 93 74 91 73 / 30 30 60 50 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 90 72 90 72 / 30 30 50 40 Oak Ridge, TN 91 72 90 72 / 40 30 50 50 Tri Cities Airport, TN 88 68 87 68 / 40 30 50 40.
At the surface winds were light and variable and temperatures were in the low 70s. A weak trough drifting by this morning could result in a few storms this morning (best potential in southeast Nebraska). Thunderstorms chances and confidence in storm activity increase tonight as convection drifts out of the High Plains and the LLJ cranks up.
With the higher temperatures humidities will be lower than yesterday, with breezy afternoon winds lasting into the early evening. In spite of an upper trough moving in on friday and increasing westerly flow into the region, temperatures will rise a little on Friday, with winds slightly breezier in the afternoon into the evening.
The area remains under the influence of a trough west of the area. This trough is not expected to cross the until late overnight tonight or early Friday morning. Friday may be a little quieter shower-wise, with the trough moving east of the area and increasing heights. Highs are only going ot be in the low to mid 70s.
The low probability of TSRA at our TAF sites precludes mentioning them in the TAFs.
Later today, we'll see convection develop across our west in response to slow-moving upper level trof, but the morning activity may stabilize our air mass somewhat further east. The area remains under the influence of a trough west of the area. This trough is not expected to cross the until late overnight tonight or early Friday morning. Friday may be a little quieter shower-wise, with the trough moving east of the area and increasing heights. Highs are only going ot be in the low to mid 70s.
314 AM PDT Thu Jul 4 2019 Continued troughing over the West Coast will provide the area with dry, westerly flow aloft.
Southeast Oklahoma and western Arkansas should have the highest potential for diurnal thunderstorms today, and as such, have carried a VCTS mention at MLC/FYV/XNA/ROG/FSM.
A weak ridge will remain over the area with embedded subtle troughs with a meandering sfc boundary in the area that will continue to support pops in the forecast through the extended.
This should result in scattered to numerous showers and storms this afternoon/early evening aided by an approaching weak short wave trough over the Fl panhandle.
627 AM EDT Thu Jul 4 2019 High pressure at the surface and aloft continues to extend from the Atlantic into the Gulf of Mexico, where it will remain through the end of the week. Upper ridge remains over the region with a weak upper trough located over eastern KY/TN and moving into NC.
This drying has also contributed to a slight warming of the mid-levels with 700mb temperatures around 2F warmer than observed yesterday.
A weather system over Oregon and Idaho will trail a cold front across Nevada this July Fourth, cooling things off a bit, and producing thunderstorms and a few showers over northern and eastern Nevada. Weak dynamics will accompany a cold front extending from a low over southern Oregon and Idaho through today.
712 AM EDT Thu Jul 4 2019 High pressure will hold over the region through Friday.
The upper ridge continues to be centered across the Gulf of Mexico. Given the location of this high and the flow around it, somewhat drier air will be present in the southern part of the forecast area today. This should help deter storms in this location, but enough mixing will also bring potential for warmer temperatures as well. The upper ridge will begin to break down and some overnight showers or storms could move into the Delta before daybreak Friday.
Another short wave trough will come out of the western trough and move across the region. The wave will push a cold front across the area that will serve as the focus for convective development. The low level moisture transport will increase during the day and be focused into the front as it moves across the region, but it does not look to overly strong. Despite a weak increase in the upper level heights over the region for the weekend, the amplitude of the upper level ridge will be low enough to still allow some additional weak short wave troughs to move across the region.
The upper pattern this morning is defined by an upper trough of low pressure centered over eastern Oregon/northern Idaho and an upper high centered over Chihuahua Mexico. A dry southwest flow around the SE periphery of the aforementioned upper trough will continue keep the moisture at bay in north-central Mexico. This pattern will begin to change Friday into this weekend as the upper high begins to expand NNE into eastern New Mexico.
Current temperatures range from the lower 40s in the mountain valleys to the upper 50s to around 70 across the Central Valley. Gradual warming will continue into the weekend as the persistent weak trough along the West Coast weakens.