Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
High pressure will continue to build in from the north. A cold front continues to drift southward through the forecast area this afternoon with the impetus for isolated to scattered convective development ahead of this front. Drier air will filter southward across the area tonight behind the cold front, with dewpoints dipping into the 50s across the area and persisting through the day Friday. For Friday night, opted to continue to indicate a return of low-end PoPs as an MCS works southeastward into the Lower Mississippi Valley, though confidence is low regarding any impact locally.
Building high pressure will push temperatures up to dangerous levels today and through the weekend.
Quiet weather was across central Indiana this afternoon with high pressure briefly building into the area. The upper trough and upper energy will move through this afternoon into early evening. On Friday, the upper trough will move into the area. Isentropic lift will ramp up as the trough moves in, and the area will be in the left exit region of an upper jet streak.
856 PM EDT Thu Jun 9 2022 A cold front stalls across the southeastern states overnight into Friday, as high pressure briefly builds in from the north.
(Tonight) Tranquil weather across the Tennessee Valley this evening, with high pressure at the surface in control.
1000 PM EDT Thu Jun 9 2022 High pressure will move east across the area tonight. It will be cool with lows in the lower to mid 50s. On Friday, the high will move east. For Friday night, this period should have the highest chance for showers/embedded thunder as available dynamics are the greatest.
Main issue on Friday will be the potential development of a thunderstorm complex over Oklahoma that will move southeast around an upper level ridge possibly reaching central Louisiana after 10/18Z, then continuing to move southeast near the Atchafalaya Basin.
Hot and dry conditions continue as the dominating ridge pushes into the central U.
839 PM MDT Thu Jun 9 2022 Main update was to increase winds slightly for Friday as cold front moves in.
Upper-level ridging becomes established on Friday with H5 heights rising to around 585 dam and H7 temperatures warming to +15 C or greater.
746 PM EDT Thu Jun 9 2022 High pressure will result in mainly dry conditions through much of today and Friday. It will be dry for the most part on Friday, but an H500 trough with ripples of vorticity arrive to the Middle Ohio Valley Friday evening, perhaps spreading some showers or storms. Expect below normal temperatures tonight and Friday with lows generally in the lower 50s, and highs in the upper 70s lowlands, ranging into the mid 60s highest elevations.
941 PM EDT Thu Jun 9 2022 High pressure will settle into the region through Friday.
Our CWA will remain on the eastern periphery of a stout mid level ridge resulting in northwest flow aloft across our region.
Low temperatures will be around 5 degrees cooler than usual. An upper trough moving across southern Wisconsin and a weak surface boundary across eastern Wisconsin should produce scattered showers and thunderstorms Friday, mainly south of highway 29.
A weak high pressure ridge kept our area dry with above normal temperatures today. Westerly flow aloft through the northern margin of the ridge will carry enough moisture for scattered showers and a slight chance of thunderstorms in Baker County Oregon and the west central Idaho mountains Friday afternoon and evening. Skies will be mostly sunny elsewhere, and highs will be a few degrees warmer than today.
High pressure crossing the Ohio Valley tonight will bring nearly calm winds and temperatures about 5 degrees cooler than normal. Clouds will increase on Friday ahead of an upper trough coming in from the west.
745 PM EDT Thu Jun 9 2022 High pressure will move east across the area tonight. It will be cool with lows in the lower to mid 50s. On Friday, the high will move east. For Friday night, this period should have the highest chance for showers/embedded thunder as available dynamics are the greatest.
649 PM CDT Thu Jun 9 2022 High pressure is over the area at this time.
744 PM EDT Thu Jun 9 2022 Once again, the Hudson Bay low and associated troughing over the eastern US is the driver of the weather stories for the short term in the Upper Peninsula. Borderline elevated fire conditions are possible in the west on Friday afternoon when temperatures will be in the low 70s, RHs will be in the mid 20s to 30%, and wind will be less than 15 knots.
High pressure slides across the FA tonight, with its clear/dry airmass and dew points nicely in the 50s. With the ridge axis to the east tmrw, a soon-to-follow northwest flow short wave dives out of the southern Plains, and beelines toward its consistently modeled track into the Lower Mississippi River Valley during the day.
The excessive heat will continue through the weekend as a ridge of high pressure aloft strengthens even more.
143 AM EDT Fri Jun 10 2022 High pressure will move east across the area tonight. It will be cool with lows in the lower to mid 50s. On Friday, the high will move east. For Friday night, this period should have the highest chance for showers/embedded thunder as available dynamics are the greatest.
The upper level trough and weak frontal boundary at the surface continues to drift south increasing moisture in the atmosphere, coupled with the strong west southwest flow will push storms from the coast inland throughout the day.
126 AM EDT Fri Jun 10 2022 Aviation -- Showers/storms over Central Lower Michigan this evening -- Showers and storms have initiated this afternoon near a cold front with instability pooled near it.
Warmer lows Saturday morning with considerable clouds and still some showers.
153 AM EDT Fri Jun 10 2022 A cold front stalls across the southeastern states overnight into Friday, as high pressure briefly builds in from the north.
High pressure will be in place today, providing warm but mainly dry conditions.
Thunderstorm activity should be long clear of southwest KS by sunrise Friday morning, likely spelling the end of thunderstorm chances across our area for the next several days as an upper level ridge progged to be centered over the Desert Southwest at 12Z Friday takes control of the weather in southwest KS. Friday night will be quiet across southwest KS, as the upper level ridge continues to build, with lows dropping into the 60s.
Some breezy winds accompanied the warmer air, with some areas seeing some wind gusts to around 20 mph or so, mostly across the plains. Our weather will turn more active this weekend, as the first in a series of weather systems associated with upper level troughing push into the area.
(Today) A WNW flow regime remains in place over much of the region this early Fri morning, while high pressure lingers across parts of the OH/TN Valley areas. The latest model suites now track this MCS feature into the lower MS Valley later this morning, before this system begins to diminish and dive further to the SSE this afternoon. Highs later today look to climb mainly into the lower/mid 80s, under partly/mostly skies.
Weak high pressure over the Ohio Valley has nudged into the Mid-South. Highs will be a little cooler today with cloud cover and precip. The main upper trough over the OH Valley will start pushing east.
304 AM EDT Fri Jun 10 2022 High pressure will weaken before a broad area of low pressure moves in and enables possible storm activity Saturday afternoon.
137 AM EDT Fri Jun 10 2022 High pressure will weaken before a broad area of low pressure moves in and enables possible storm activity Saturday afternoon.
137 AM EDT Fri Jun 10 2022 Cooler and less humid weather returns tonight with dry and seasonably warm conditions Friday and Saturday.
This afternoon, northwest flow will remain across the region behind the departing storms as upper ridging builds over the Desert Southwest, with the ridging building slightly east for the start of the weekend. This setup will promote Lee troughing, return flow and a warming trend. There is good model agreement in some upper energy tracking over the Northern Plains Sat night into Sun which will attempt to push a very weak cold front down into the area for Sun. This trough will eventually push a cold front across the Plains with models indicating that it should move into the area late Tue night into Wed and will provide our next chance for storms.
138 AM PDT Fri Jun 10 2022 High pressure will lead to unseasonably hot temperatures through the end of the week.
Meanwhile, the low clouds from this morning are slowly continuing lift across the northeast Panhandles, which is allowing for temperatures to quickly warm across the western and southern Panhandles. A weak 850mb trough will push eastward this evening with the low level jet picking up across the eastern and southeastern Panhandles and hodographs showing better low level turning. However, a factor playing against that potential would be the loss of daytime heating and cooler surface temperatures. Tomorrow, the upper ridge starts to build east over the Panhandles with warming temperatures and dry conditions returning to the forecast area. Rutt Upper level ridge remains over New Mexico on Saturday.
408 AM EDT Fri Jun 10 2022 Weak high pressure will build in behind cold front into today with mainly localized afternoon shower and thunderstorm activity through the weekend.
Convection is firing up along a trough in eastern Colorado, moving slowly east-southeast. From 00z- 06z Friday, storms/precip expected to wane from west to east, along for the region to dry out ahead of an upper ridge currently over the central Rockies. This ridge shifts east into the Plains, cresting over the upcoming weekend.
Warmest spots are near the lakeshores and near the WI/MI state line, and they've bottomed out in the low-mid 50s mostly. Expect daytime highs to climb into the low 70s, except remain in the 60s by the immediate lakeshores. Borderline elevated fire conditions are possible in the west on Friday afternoon when temperatures will be in the low 70s, RHs will be in the mid 20s to 30%, and wind will be less than 15 knots.
223 AM EDT Fri Jun 10 2022 Weak high pressure will build in behind cold front into today.
This AM in the upper levels, an upper ridge is present from the Southwest U. A longwave trough is present over E Conus. In the lower levels, a surface front that is just to our S may pull back some to the N today.
Otherwise, a warm and somewhat muggy night expected, with lows falling to the upper 60s and lower 70s along and north of the Highway 84 corridor, but remaining in the low to mid 70s to the south. Highs on Friday will warm up quickly in advance of the MCS, rising to the lower 90s over inland areas and upper 80s along the coast. Lows Friday night should range from the upper 60s well inland to the low 70s over the interior south, and some mid to upper 70s along the immediate coastal areas. Perhaps a little cooler on Saturday in the wake of the MCS, with highs generally in the upper 80s with a few lower 90s.
Water vapor imagery this morning showing generally zonal flow over the western CONUS with a broad trough prevailing over the eastern half. As positioning of the low level jet shifts to the east Saturday night, best precip chances will be focused over northern.
155 AM EDT Fri Jun 10 2022 Weak high pressure over the Ohio valley will push east on Friday and provide the region with a fair amount of sun along with seasonably cool temperatures.
However, the mid levels look to be significantly warmer today compared to yesterday (-18 C vs -22 C/see 00z APX sounding).
The short term forecast is beginning to sound more and more like a broken record each day as persistent, robust mid/upper ridging continues to dominate the synoptic picture across the South Central CONUS. Overnight lows remain in the upper 70s for inland areas and the lower 80s along the coast as scattered cloud cover builds back into the area overnight. Highs break into the triple digits for most of the area on Saturday with coastal locations seeing the low to mid 90s.
High temperatures for this afternoon will reach into the lower 90s with overnight low temps expected to drop down into the lower 70s over inland areas and in the mid 70s for coastal areas and locations nearer to north central Florida. This will result in increased likelihoods for convective developments going into the weekend as an upper level long wave trough crosses through the eastern US and serves to enhance storm development. Overnight low temperatures will drop down into the lower 70s for inland areas and in the mid 70s for locations along the coastline.
128 AM EDT Fri Jun 10 2022 Once again, the Hudson Bay low and associated troughing over the eastern US is the driver of the weather stories for the short term in the Upper Peninsula. Borderline elevated fire conditions are possible in the west on Friday afternoon when temperatures will be in the low 70s, RHs will be in the mid 20s to 30%, and wind will be less than 15 knots.
/AJ/ Saturday through Friday: The weekend starts off with northwest flow extending from the Central Plains to the Lower Mississippi Valley on the poleward side of a stout upper ridge centered over the Desert Southwest and into west Texas.
Temperatures across eastern Iowa and northwest Illinois were in the low/mid 60s for most locations. Main Message: Cooler conditions are expected today due to widespread clouds and periods of showers. Chances for measurable rain are the lowest in the far northeast up toward Freeport.
1058 PM CDT Thu Jun 9 2022 (Tonight) Tranquil weather across the Tennessee Valley this evening, with high pressure at the surface in control.
It will be warmer with highs in the 80s and dry. It will be warmer with highs above normal and into the 90s.
Temperatures as of 730z are generally in the low and mid 50s in valleys and mid and upper 50s atop ridges. High pressure is currently working east across the area and will continue on that trajectory through the day. An amplified pattern is present aloft, as troughing is across the eastern CONUS, while stout ridging across the west. Lows will range from the low to mid 50s tonight, with patchy fog to be expected given the lingering low level moisture in place. Highs will be a touch warmer than today as they are more southerly, topping out in the upper 70s and low 80s.
Near 100 temperatures are expected across the higher terrain, necessitating a Heat Advisory for these locations. Late in the afternoon, an isolated thunderstorm or two will be possible across the higher terrain. Temperatures approach record territory on Saturday as the low- level thermal ridge becomes better positioned over the area. This pushes temperatures a few degrees warmer and many locations will need a Heat Advisory or Excessive Heat Warning in later forecasts.
Dry conditions prevailed across the region early this morning, with a weak area of high pressure in place.
129 AM MDT Fri Jun 10 2022 As an upper ridge builds over the western CONUS, high clouds are streaming into the northern plains through northwest flow. The upper ridge will keep our weather warm and dry through Saturday afternoon.
Latest CAMs continue to indicate more organized storm development over central Nebraska after 00z in association with a surface cold front and expand these storms, which should remain elevated across our area, eastward into portions of eastern Nebraska through the overnight hours. Mostly dry conditions are expected through the weekend as a midlevel ridge builds into the central Plains. A weak surface boundary is forecast to stall across the area Saturday night and could be the focus for a few isolated showers and thunderstorms, but chances remain on the low side for this.
340 AM CDT Fri Jun 10 2022 08Z water vapor imagery showed northwest flow over the central plains with closed lows over the Gulf of Alaska and the Hudson Bay. At the surface a weak pattern generally showed low pressure over the state of KS with high pressure over the northern high plains. Highs today look to be a couple degrees warmer than yesterday based off of 850MB temps and 1000-500MB thicknesses. By Saturday models advect warmer air into the region with highs forecast to reach the lower 90s for a large part of the forecast area.
Therefore, isolated showers may linger in the northern ridges of WV/Laurel Highlands. Ridging in the wake of the passing trough should keep precip chances low through Saturday evening. Long range model ensembles continue to promote an unsettled period through the weekend as we remain in the grips of the eastern CONUS trough.
313 AM EDT Fri Jun 10 2022 High pressure will bring mostly sunny skies and near average temperatures to the area today.
407 AM EDT Fri Jun 10 2022 Weak high pressure over the Ohio valley will push east today and provide the region with a fair amount of sun along with seasonably cool temperatures.
High pressure crossing the Ohio Valley tonight will bring nearly calm winds and temperatures about 5 degrees cooler than normal. Clouds will increase on Friday ahead of an upper trough coming in from the west. General troughing across the US is expected for Friday evening, with drier conditions forecast for Saturday. Best precip coverage will likely be confined mostly north of the Kentucky Parkways, where a subtle inverted trough provides enough support to squeeze out some slim rain chances. Upper trough axis will depart off to our east on Saturday, and will see a broad ridge build over the central US. Under mid and upper level flow, NW winds and the building ridge will keep us mostly dry throughout the weekend.
For Today, an upper ridge centered over the Desert Southwest will build slightly into the Central High Plains including western NE. On Saturday, the upper ridge flattens out across the region, with strong heating expected. Highs as expected to be near 10 degrees warmer than Friday's highs.
SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday): Although centered over the Desert Southwest, 500 mb high pressure will remain the dominant weather feature over the BRO CWFA throughout the period.
359 AM EDT Fri Jun 10 2022 High pressure will settle into the region today.
Expect overnight lows in the low 70s with daytime highs in the low to mid 90s. Active weather will continue through the weekend as upper level troughing holds through the weekend.
High pressure over the area will continue into Friday before a weak low pressure moves east across the Ohio River Valley Friday evening into Saturday.
Upper level analysis still shows a ridge centered around Arizona and and a broad trough over the eastern third of the country thats now east of the Appalachian Mountains. That trough has eroded the eastern side of the ridge aloft that's kept the CWA dry. A weak frontal boundary that moved into the local area yesterday from the trough has stalled. The ridge mentioned above will still be over the Desert Southwest Saturday and already expanding back east across the northern Gulf Coast as the trough shifts east.
High pressure slides across the FA tonight, with its clear/dry airmass and dew points nicely in the 50s. With the ridge axis to the east tmrw, a soon-to-follow northwest flow short wave dives out of the southern Plains, and beelines toward its consistently modeled track into the Lower Mississippi River Valley during the day. Highs Friday in the 70s will bump up into the lower 80s Saturday.
A MCS will dive well west of the area into the lower Mississppi valley. Chattanooga Airport, TN 84 64 85 67 91 / 10 20 20 10 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 82 63 84 66 89 / 10 20 20 10 10 Oak Ridge, TN 83 62 84 64 89 / 10 30 20 10 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 80 56 82 61 87 / 10 40 20 10 10.
1003 AM EDT Fri Jun 10 2022 Weak high pressure will build in behind cold front into today with mainly localized afternoon shower and thunderstorm activity through the weekend.
359 AM MDT Fri Jun 10 2022 As an upper ridge builds over the western CONUS, high clouds are streaming into the northern plains through northwest flow. The upper ridge will keep our weather warm and dry through Saturday afternoon.
642 AM EDT Fri Jun 10 2022 Weak high pressure over the Ohio valley will push east today and provide the region with a fair amount of sun along with seasonably cool temperatures.
713 AM EDT Fri Jun 10 2022 Weak high pressure will build in behind cold front into today with mainly localized afternoon shower and thunderstorm activity through the weekend.
The forcing and deeper moisture associated with this complex of thunderstorms should track just north of this boundary along the edge of a ThetaE ridge into southern Mississippi as forcing with it eventually weakens slightly. This cloud cover and weak cold air advection should help to keep temperatures below normal, only reaching the lower 80s in most locations again today.
354 AM MDT Fri Jun 10 2022 A cold front will push eastward across the area today, bringing elevated westerly winds and a few isolated showers along the Canadian border. The upper level pattern looks mostly zonal over the next couple of days, with Montana riding the top of a broad ridge over the western part of the country.
The boundary will gradually stall across the area through this evening, with the upper trough lingering through the weekend and providing some additional upper energy to the warm and moist environment, and supporting high rain chances.
A weak ridge axis will linger across the coastal waters of the Florida Keys this afternoon through Saturday, resulting in light, mainly southerly breezes.
438 AM PDT Fri Jun 10 2022 High pressure aloft will continue the hot weather for inland areas into the weekend while the marine layer keeps coastal areas cooler with night and morning low clouds and fog.
Upper troughing will maintain below average temperature, supporting an overall pleasant day for much of the area.
621 AM CDT Fri Jun 10 2022 (Today) A WNW flow regime remains in place over much of the region this early Fri morning, while high pressure lingers across parts of the OH/TN Valley areas. The latest model suites now track this MCS feature into the lower MS Valley later this morning, before this system begins to diminish and dive further to the SSE this afternoon. Highs later today look to climb mainly into the lower/mid 80s, under partly/mostly skies.
08Z water vapor imagery showed northwest flow over the central plains with closed lows over the Gulf of Alaska and the Hudson Bay. At the surface a weak pattern generally showed low pressure over the state of KS with high pressure over the northern high plains. Highs today look to be a couple degrees warmer than yesterday based off of 850MB temps and 1000-500MB thicknesses. By Saturday models advect warmer air into the region with highs forecast to reach the lower 90s for a large part of the forecast area.
Highs today will reach the upper 80s to lower 90s over much of the area, with overnight lows in the low to mid 70s.
Meanwhile our flow is light and at times nebulous thanks to a weak area of high pressure located across the Gulf of Mexico. Aside from the weak area of high pressure situated across the Gulf of Mexico, a subtropical ridge axis stretches across the western Atlantic, over the Bahamas, and across the Straits of Florida. The subtropical ridge will gradually build over the coming days and the axis will lift north of the Florida Keys.
/issued 357 AM CDT Fri Jun 10 2022/ SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday): Although centered over the Desert Southwest, 500 mb high pressure will remain the dominant weather feature over the BRO CWFA throughout the period.
Dry air is expected to persist today in the low levels, so rain could be light or fall as virga. The upper level trough will move off to the east the beginning of the week as a broad ridge takes its place.
1027 AM EDT Fri Jun 10 2022 A weak area of low pressure will track south of the area tonight through Saturday.
955 AM EDT Fri Jun 10 2022 Weak high pressure over the Ohio valley will push east today and provide the region with a fair amount of sun along with seasonably cool temperatures.