Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
706 PM EDT Thu Oct 1 2020 Isolated to scattered showers this evening will be followed by a return to dry weather as cool suface high pressure moves over the region. as isolated to scattered showers continue under the encroachment of cold upper low pressure.
532 PM MDT Thu Oct 1 2020 High pressure remained entrenched to the west and will persist through the short term period.
Skies will clear tomorrow and temps will remain unseasonably warm, with highs in the low to mid 80's for the area, except mid to upper 70's in the mountains.
1100 PM EDT Thu Oct 1 2020 A reinforcing cold front moves through overnight. Chilly high pressure to end the week.
High pressure aloft will maintain a warm, dry and stable airmass across the region through the upcoming weekend.
Persistent cold air advection overnight will allow for temperatures to drop into the low to mid 40s - closer to our daily record low temperatures (35 MSL, 36 HSV) than our daily average low temperatures (55 MSL, 56 HSV).
526 PM MDT Thu Oct 1 2020 Upper ridging is persisting across the western CONUS, with northwest flow aloft across the Great Plains. This wave will bring a cold front to the area, with gusty NW winds behind it.
/issued Issued by National Weather Service Jackson MS/ Tonight and Friday: Continued dry with cooler than normal temperatures through the period. Mid afternoon surface analysis had a cold front just south of the CWA with a 1025mb high centered over the central Plains. Normal highs run in the low to mid 80s.
Hence many areas will be threading the needle for temps to drop into the low to mid 30s to create areas of frost. High pressure nudges in for Friday should result in the potential for more in the way of sunshine. However, low level thermal trough and broadly cyclonic mid level flow still support potential for scattered-broken cumulus.
626 PM CDT Thu Oct 1 2020 The eastern trough and western ridge upper flow pattern will largely dominate the weather pattern for nearly the entire forecast period with only a few waves moving through the flow over the next 7 days. As the high pressure shifts off to the east and lee troughing occurs to the west throughout the day tomorrow, expect quite breezy southerly flow by tomorrow afternoon.
VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF cycle at all sites as high pressure remains in control over the region. Light and variable winds will prevail tonight, becoming slightly stronger out of the northeast in the morning as a weak surge of reinforcing high pressure builds across the region. This is in response to the long wave trough over the eastern U.
Chilly Canadian high pressure will settle southeast from the upper Midwest into the Lower Great Lakes and Ohio Valley regions tonight/Friday/Friday night time frame.
As the high slides east on Friday, southeasterly flow will gradually return.
The high amplitude ridge continues to be over the western portion of the CONUS with northwest upper level flow over the region. Temperatures were slightly cooler today behind a cooler flow of easterly winds on the surface in the post-frontal airmass. Current wind patterns and HRRR smoke models show another day of extensive smoke cover over the northern and central foothills as well as the lower elevations of I-76 and south. On the synoptic scale, a ridge of high pressure will remain over the west coast, with a northwesterly flow over CO.
Cooler air and slightly breezy conditions have made their way east of the central mountain chain today following a backdoor cold front.
Dry and unseasonably warm conditions are expected to continue this week as strong high pressure aloft persists. High pressure aloft persists across the west maintaining stable and weakly forced low levels. Interior areas will also continue to be on the warm side as subsidence and high heights combine to maintain the higher than normal temperatures.
Upper level ridge will continue above normal temperatures, light winds and dry conditions though Friday.
/issued 354 PM CDT Thu Oct 1 2020/ A plume of high clouds riding around the western side of an upper trof over much of the eastern U. Temperatures have warmed into the low to mid 80s this afternoon, but with dewpoints still in the upper 40s to lower 50s conditions continue to be quite pleasant. The aforementioned trof will push a dry front through the region later this evening.
1045 PM EDT Thu Oct 1 2020 Pacific high pressure over the Southeast will yield to a cold front that will move across NC tonight. Canadian high pressure will follow and extend across the middle Atlantic through the weekend. A deep trough and an associated cold front (which is readily detectable on radar) will move through the region overnight. Front shifts offshore early Friday, followed by dry and cooler The departing mid level trough and surface cold front offshore early Friday will mean a dry and cooler day with the expected CAA. Clear and cool conditions with high pressure and light wind will mean lows solidly in the 40s Friday night.
/Tonight/ The evening temps continue to cool nicely in wake of the cold fropa earlier this morning, with cold/dry advection expected to persist as strong sfc ridging builds S into the region from the Plains/Mid MS Valley. The evening RGB satellite imagery depicts a narrow band of AC cigs over Cntrl/Ern OK into Wrn AR, although this shield has shown a diminishing trend the last couple of hours, which should continue through the overnight hours along the base of the longwave trough that will dig S through the remainder of the Srn Plains/Gulf Coast region.
Winds become more northerly ahead of an approaching reinforcing weak cool front into tonight, with lows falling into the 60s most locations, except along the barrier islands from the Cape southward and along the Treasure Coast where min temps are forecast to remain in the low 70s.
High pressure situated along the west coast will maintain dry and mild conditions across the region through the weekend.
As of 20Z Thursday afternoon the highly amplified midlevel pattern remains across the CONUS with troughing in the east and ridging across the west. As a result, confidence has increased for scattered clouds overnight and slightly warmer temperatures.
Cool, dry high pressure will build in overnight with clearing skies as winds become light. Lows will be mostly in the low to mid 40s, but a few of the usual colder spots could have upper 30s.
The last several runs of the high resolution smoke models suggest most of the smoke layer to be around 6,000 feet with much less below that. That's not to say we wont' have smoke to deal with in the lower levels.
While a ridge of high pressure continues its dominance across the western United States, weak atmospheric disturbances passing over it have tilted the axis of stability back towards the west, over coastal Washington. An upper level disturbance that is currently depicted on satellite over the Pacific Ocean west of northern California is forecast to move into the west coast ridge over the weekend.
1237 AM CDT Fri Oct 2 2020 High pressure and VFR conditions will continue across the area through the period. Tonight Through Saturday A large upper ridge will be over the western U. and the large upper trough will continue over the eastern two thirds of the U. High pressure continues to move into the area from the north.
Today Through Saturday Night A large upper ridge will be over the western U. and the large upper trough will continue over the eastern two thirds of the U. High pressure continues to move into the area from the north. Another cold front will enter the northwest corner of the state Saturday evening and will bring a chance of showers with isolated thunderstorms Saturday and Saturday night.
421 AM EDT Fri Oct 2 2020 Low pressure will spread rain over the forecast area today. High pressure will result in fair weather and seasonable temperatures for the weekend.
311 AM EDT Fri Oct 2 2020 A pressure ridge centered to the north of the area will extend into the area over the weekend.
Forecast lows are in the low to mid 40s across the CWA, with a few areas in west TN possibly dipping into the upper 30s by sunrise. The main story this week will be below normal temperatures through the weekend as northwest flow aloft and the potential for cold frontal passages persists. As for tonight, temperatures will be a bit colder than they have been, lows will be in the lower 40s with light winds and clear skies. Lows overnight Friday should still fall into the 40s, however should stay 2 to 5 degrees warmer than tonight's forecasted low temperatures.
459 AM EDT Fri Oct 2 2020 A few showers are possible today north of Pittsburgh with a crossing cold front. Dry weather returns tonight and Saturday under high pressure. A reinforcing cold front is expected to cross the region this morning under broad upper troughing aloft.
This AM we have a cold front draped down the Atlantic Coast southwestward toward the Northern Gulf Coast and back into South and West Texas. The ridge center is expected to shift from the Central U. This movement is in response to a developing low pressure on the lee of the Rockies.
/issued 1007 PM CDT Thu Oct 1 2020/ Another cool, dry, and overall pleasant night is expected as a reinforcing cold front continues to slide southward into the Gulf. /issued 354 PM CDT Thu Oct 1 2020/ A plume of high clouds riding around the western side of an upper trof over much of the eastern U. Temperatures have warmed into the low to mid 80s this afternoon, but with dewpoints still in the upper 40s to lower 50s conditions continue to be quite pleasant. The aforementioned trof will push a dry front through the region later this evening.
/GG/ Cold front has moved through all but our extreme southern zones late this afternoon with a cooler/drier airmass funneling into the region from the north. This airmass will allow for cool conditions once again tonight with lows ranging from the middle 40s north to near 50 to the lower 50s south. Deep longwave trough extending from the Upper Great Lakes southward through the Ohio and Tenn Valleys into the Lower Miss Valley will change very little through the short term portion of the forecast. We may begin to see some slight airmass recovery by late in the day Saturday as high pressure at the surface shifts east of our region ahead of another cold front.
Locally the low levels were quite dry though with RH in the low 30s and clouds atop a 5-6k foot mixed layer along with gusty winds. The main weather story for tonight is the potential for frost or even some brief sub-freezing temperatures. However, despite a quick drop this evening from the 50s back into the lower 40s, the upper level moisture streaming over the Rockies is likely to bring a layer of mid level clouds across the region for much of the night. Friday will be just slightly warmer and less windy than today and Saturday will be quite similar to Friday although with more cloud cover. Friday night into Saturday morning also claims our greatest chance for some light rain fall as a compact short wave trough crosses the region.
ridge. The wave will push a cold front into the area by this afternoon, and will usher in gusty NNW winds, especially from KBIL E, where 700 mb winds will be 40-45 kt. Low-level flow turns easterly on Saturday, supporting a cooler day. Arthur Overall theme during this period is warm and dry, due to a continued dominance of an upper ridge over the western US. There will be some variation in temperatures this week as cold fronts move through every 48 hours.
355 AM EDT Fri Oct 2 2020 High pressure will build in behind a cold front this morning and persist through Saturday.
105 AM EDT Fri Oct 2 2020 Pacific high pressure over the Southeast will yield to a cold front that will move across NC tonight. Canadian high pressure will follow and extend across the middle Atlantic through the weekend. A deep trough and an associated cold front (which is readily detectable on radar) will move through the region overnight. Front shifts offshore early Friday, followed by dry and cooler The departing mid level trough and surface cold front offshore early Friday will mean a dry and cooler day with the expected CAA. Clear and cool conditions with high pressure and light wind will mean lows solidly in the 40s Friday night. Saturday: - High pressure and dry airmass extending across the state from the NE will provide fair wx and near seasonable temps.
314 AM EDT Fri Oct 2 2020 A pressure ridge centered to the north of the area will extend into the area over the weekend.
However, models continue to suggest a convergent wind field over Marquette County this morning as another trough pushes through around the base of the upper-level trough that's still lingering over the Great Lakes region. Upper air pattern will consist of a 500 mb ridge on the west coast and a deep and broad 500 mb trough over the central and eastern U. In the extended, the GFS and ECMWF show a deep 500 mb trough over the ern U. This trough digs into the eastern U. and amplifies over New England 12z Thu with a ridge in the Rockies. This ridge moves into the central and northern plains 12z Fri. This high pressure remains through the weekend, keeping winds generally below 20 knots.
250 AM CDT Fri Oct 2 2020 A deep upper-level trough is now entrenched over the Midwest which will result in much cooler than average temperatures through the weekend. A shift to southerly flow will keep Saturday night temperatures warmer as dew points will be higher.
233 AM EDT Fri Oct 2 2020 High pressure moves in bringing dry, but chilly weather through Saturday.
Highs will be a little warmer Saturday, but still mostly in the 50s.
335 AM CDT Fri Oct 2 2020 Northwesterly flow aloft continues across the nation's mid section with amplified ridging over the western CONUS and troughing across the eastern third of the nation. Weak southerly return flow increases later today which should allow afternoon high temps to reach the lower to mid 60s. Point forecast soundings do indicate some moisture return in the lower levels, but feel this may be slightly overdone by models.
500 AM EDT Fri Oct 2 2020 A few showers are possible today with a crossing cold front. Dry weather returns tonight and Saturday under high pressure. A reinforcing cold front is expected to cross the region this morning under broad upper troughing aloft.
242 AM EDT Fri Oct 2 2020 A low pressure trough will usher showers into NY and PA today. High pressure will bring dry weather this weekend, though a few lake effect rain showers will continue over northern NY. A trough of low pressure will swing across NY and PA today with weak surface reflections sliding along the trough. Temperatures will peak in the lower 60s. High pressure will slide down from Canada overnight as lake effect rain showers continue. Low level moisture trapped below the high could cause stratocumulus clouds to linger. Temperatures will peak from the mid 50s to the lower 60s with warmest temperatures in the Wyoming Valley.
300 AM EDT Fri Oct 2 2020 A few showers are possible today north of Pittsburgh with a crossing cold front. Dry weather returns tonight and Saturday under high pressure. A reinforcing cold front is expected to cross the region this morning under broad upper troughing aloft.
214 AM CDT Fri Oct 2 2020 A cold front has passed south of the TN River early this morning. So Saturday should be another mostly sunny day, with temperatures slightly warmer with highs in the lower 70s.
Surface and mid-level high pressure will maintain VFR conditions through the next 24 hours. VFR conditions will continue to prevail due to persistent high pressure. /issued 232 PM CDT Thu Oct 1 2020/ SHORT TERM (Now through Friday Night): High pressure (around 1020 mb) is in control across the CWA. Coupled with mid level ridging aloft, tranquil and dry weather will persist through the next 36 hours. At the surface, reinforcing high pressure will move south into the lower Mississippi Valley and into the Northwest Gulf tonight into Friday. Low temperatures tonight and Friday night will generally fall into the 60s, with Friday night edging a degree or two warmer, with lower 70s near the coast.
Tonight through Saturday night: Conditions will change little through Saturday as a strong upper ridge persists through the forecast period. There will remain some high level moisture mainly tonight and Friday topping the ridge that will bring mid and high clouds to the area.
1118 PM CDT Thu Oct 1 2020 The eastern trough and western ridge upper flow pattern will largely dominate the weather pattern for nearly the entire forecast period with only a few waves moving through the flow over the next 7 days. As the high pressure shifts off to the east and lee troughing occurs to the west throughout the day tomorrow, expect quite breezy southerly flow by tomorrow afternoon.
230 AM EDT Fri Oct 2 2020 High pressure will allow for sunny skies and cooler temperatures Friday and Saturday.
Longwave troughing will continue today and tonight across the Eastern CONUS with northerly flow, subsidence, and surface ridging across the forecast area resulting in a mostly clear sky and dry weather. The troughing and cold boundary layer airmass will allow temperatures to be about 10 degrees below normal. With calm winds and the cold, dry airmass in place tonight, patchy frost will be possible across portions of the higher elevations of East Tennessee and southwest Virginia.
Cold front will move into northeast Oklahoma Saturday afternoon with scattered showers developing Saturday night as boundary pushes into SE OK/NW AR.
Surface ridging continues to increase through the period with generally light winds and a mostly clear sky. JB Chattanooga Airport, TN 67 46 71 49 74 / 0 0 0 0 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 64 44 68 47 71 / 0 0 0 0 10 Oak Ridge, TN 65 44 69 47 71 / 0 0 0 0 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 63 39 66 44 69 / 0 0 0 10 10.
426 AM EDT Fri Oct 2 2020 A low pressure trough will usher showers into NY and PA today. High pressure will bring dry weather this weekend, though a few lake effect rain showers will continue over northern NY. A trough of low pressure will swing across NY and PA today with weak surface reflections sliding along the trough. Temperatures will peak in the lower 60s. High pressure will slide down from Canada overnight as lake effect rain showers continue. Low level moisture trapped below the high could cause stratocumulus clouds to linger. High pressure will be centered over the Northeast U.
325 AM CDT Fri Oct 2 2020 Cool high pressure in control this morning with overnight lows bottoming out from the upper 20s to mid 30s. By tonight abundant cloud cover will be in place as a broad upper level trough begins to shift eastward. On Saturday as this broad trough shifts east marginal forcing and weak instability mostly east of Interstate 29 should allow for a few showers again, but not much rainfall expected.
A reinforcing cold front passed over the local area earlier this evening, which brought an increase in northerly winds late this evening. An upper level trough over the eastern CONUS will continue to amplify through the near term period, but remain fairly stationary. Meanwhile, a reinforcing surface cold front has progressed over the inland portion of the local area and is currently over the Gulf coast. Low temperatures tonight will be in the lower to mid 50s north of I-10, with areas in the far northwest potentially seeing lows around 50 degrees. Highs Friday afternoon will be much cooler than we've seen recently, with temperatures in the lower to mid 70s area- wide. Friday night lows will then drop down into the mid to upper 40s north of I-10 and into the lower to mid 50s south.
WV satellite continues to show pattern dominated by upper ridging over the western CONUS and cyclonic flow across the eastern two thirds of the CONUS with a belt of enhanced flow between these features over WA extending southeastward to E CO. At the surface, large scale high pressure is in place over the northern and central Plains with generally some form of southerly winds occurring across the Panhandles. Saturday, the latest Plains cold front looks to push south, with GFS/NAM/CMC/EC depicting this feature clearing the Panhandles during the 12z to 18z time frame.
Below freezing temps occurring Park Rapids to Hillsboro area to Cooperstown north. Temps today a tad warmer with highs 40s to low 50s.
Persistent cold air advection overnight will allow for temperatures to drop into the low to mid 40s - closer to our daily record low temperatures (35 MSL, 36 HSV) than our daily average low temperatures (55 MSL, 56 HSV). Lows will likely reach the lower 40s for many rural communities, with some upper 30 degree readings possible in the sheltered valleys of northeast AL/southern TN.
1252 AM CDT Fri Oct 2 2020 High pressure at the sfc and nwly flow aloft will result in prevailing VFR conditions for the 06Z TAF pd. /Tonight/ The evening temps continue to cool nicely in wake of the cold fropa earlier this morning, with cold/dry advection expected to persist as strong sfc ridging builds S into the region from the Plains/Mid MS Valley. The evening RGB satellite imagery depicts a narrow band of AC cigs over Cntrl/Ern OK into Wrn AR, although this shield has shown a diminishing trend the last couple of hours, which should continue through the overnight hours along the base of the longwave trough that will dig S through the remainder of the Srn Plains/Gulf Coast region.
215 AM CDT Fri Oct 2 2020 Chilly morning across Middle Tennessee thanks to the cold front that moved through yesterday, with current temps mostly in the 40s but a few spots in the Upper Cumberland have dropped into the upper 30s. Saturday looks to be a near carbon copy of today, but just a bit cooler in the morning with lows in the upper 30s on the Plateau and low to mid 40s elsewhere. Patchy fog is more likely Saturday morning throughout the area, but once again dewpoints look to be well above freezing so frost should not be an issue. Highs will be a bit warmer on Saturday versus today, but still very comfortable in the mid 60s to low 70s.
These clouds are keeping current temperatures generally in the low 40s and upper 30s, with the exception of far northeast Kansas, where slightly lower cloud cover has allowed a few KS Mesonet sites to drop into the mid 30s. At the surface, a weak inverted trough will approach eastern Kansas by early tomorrow morning.
Today will be another nice day across the region as the CWA remains located between a high amplitude ridge aloft to our west and upper troughing across the mid west. At the end of the short term (early Saturday morning), a cold front will be on our door step. On Saturday morning, a high amplitude ridge extending from Baja California into northern Nunavut with troughing across the eastern CONUS. We'll see the western ridge flatten across Canada this weekend while the southwestern dome of high pressure will remain in place across the desert SW.
With an upper-level northwest flow overhead, north/northwest surface winds, and lingering moisture from a cold frontal passage earlier this morning, scattered showers are expected to continue into this evening. The combination of low temperatures ranging from the lower to middle 30s, light winds, and mostly clear skies will allow frost to develop across central and east-central Wisconsin.
Made minor adjustments to POPs and sky cover based on observations and near term model blends as isolated to scattered showers continue E of PIT under the encroachment of cold upper low pressure.
This mornings concern continues to be frost potential and near freezing temps. At that point, there is some evidence that the western CONUS upper level ridge will be trying to flatten/move east toward the central CONUS.