Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES RETURN AND QUIET WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE WORK WEEK.
WEAK RIDGING WILL THEN BRING MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS TO THE AREA TONIGHT. ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO. BY THURSDAY DAYTIME HIGHS WILL FEEL RELATIVELY BALMY AS CONTINUED WARM AIR ADVECTION ALLOWS HIGHS TO GET INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S WHICH WILL FAIRLY CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE TEXARKANA AREA. AND AN ATTENDANT WARM FRONT OVER SOUTHERN ARKANSAS. AND IT LOOKS LIKE THE TEMPERATURE WILL LIKELY FALL TO OR A LITTLE BELOW FREEZING IN THE METRO AREA BEFORE PRECIPITATION ENDS. AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM TEXAS.
AN UPPER LEVEL LONG WAVE TROF HAD REACHED THE ND/MN BORDER. THE SNOW THAT HAS BEEN OCCURRING WITH THIS TROF IN ND HAS BEEN DIMINISHING WITH TIME OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. WITH THE DRY AIR IN PLACE THANKS TO THE HIGH AND LIMITED MOISTURE WITH THE APPROACHING TROF. CARRIED THE LOW POPS ALONG THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER TROF PASSES THROUGH NW WI. SFC RIDGING RETURNS IN THE AFTERNOON AS WELL AS THE DRY ATMOSPHERE. MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE TROF WILL BE QUITE LIMITED. THE NORTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF AND JUST BEHIND THE TROF SHOULD SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A STANDING GRAVITY WAVE ALONG THE NORTH SHORE.
AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH IS INDUCING AN EPISODE OF STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WARM ADVECTION IN THE 925-850 MB LAYER THIS MORNING ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN PART OF THE AREA. WET BULB TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF FREEZING RAIN. PERHAPS THE ONLY CHANCE FOR ANY FREEZING RAIN APPEARED TO BE ACROSS FAR NORTHER CHEROKEE COUNTY LATE THIS MORNING. A SURFACE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTH LATER TODAY AND EVENTUALLY BECOME STALLED IN A WEST TO EAST FASHION TONIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES.
THE LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA. THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHOULD TRACK EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS NEBRASKA TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. THUS HAVE REMOVED THE MENTION OF FREEZING RAIN.
424 AM MST WED JAN 20 2016 WEAK LEAD TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM THE MOUNTAINS ACROSS THE PLAINS BY AFTERNOON. THEN A STRONGER TROUGH WILL COME IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING USHERING IN STRONGER NW FLOW ALOFT AND COLD ADVECTION. FOR THE PLAINS TEMPERATURES WILL BE RELATIVELY MILD AGAIN TODAY EXCEPT IN THE LOWER AREAS WITH SNOW COVER. SHOULD BE BETTER CHANCES AWAY FROM THE DOWNSLOPING OFF THE MOUNTAINS AND CHEYENNE RIDGE. THURSDAY MORNING WILL SEE SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS OVER EASTERN PLAINS AS SOME MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WRAP AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH LOCATED OVER WESTERN KANSAS. SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND ON THE PLAINS WILL BE COMING TO AN END BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVES INTO THE STATE FROM THE WEST. AS THE RIDGE BUILDS IN.
SOME OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL OUTPUT IS INDICATING THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG AROUND SUNRISE ACROSS OUR SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE AS STRATUS REMAINS TRAPPED UNDER THE APPROACHING RIDGE.
HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL RANGE THROUGH THE LOW 20S. OTRWS SFC RIDGING TO REDVLP IN WAKE OF THIS SYS OVERNIGHT HWVR CLDS XPCD TO PERSIST UNDERNEATH GROWING SUBSIDENCE INDUCED THERMAL INVERSION.
621 AM CST WED JAN 20 2016 /12Z TAFS/ MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM INVOLVES THE COVERAGE AND DISSIPATION TIMING OF THE LOW CLOUD DECK OVER NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS. AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE AREA. THE LOW CLOUDS WILL SCATTER OUT THIS AFTERNOON. AND AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH LOW CLOUDINESS WILL MOVE BACK NORTHWARD ACROSS ALL TAF SITES BY AROUND 06Z TONIGHT. THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION THURSDAY EVENING WITH MUCH COLDER.
CROSS THE PACIFIC NW TONIGHT THEN DIVE SE ACROSS ID AND WY WEDNESDAY IN RESPONSE TO A REDEVELOPING RIDGE UPSTREAM ALONG THE WEST COAST. WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS NEAR GLACIER NP AS WELL AS THE WEST YELLOWSTONE AREA. TEMPERATURES COOL SLIGHTLY WEDNESDAY WITH A COOL CANADIAN AIRMASS ALSO SLIPPING BRIEFLY SOUTHWARD INTO NORTH-CENTRAL MT LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE TROUGH. UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS IN QUICKLY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY FOR OVERALL WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS.
DURING THE AFTERNOON AT CHA/TYS SNOW WILL TRANSITION TO RAIN AND DURING THE TRANSITION TERMINALS COULD EXPERIENCE FREEZING RAIN/SLEET. CURRENT FORECAST HAS GENERALLY 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS TOWARDS THE NORTH.
SNOW WILL SPREAD ACROSS ALL AREAS THIS EVE AS THE UPPER TROF MOVES THRU THE PAC NW. EXCEPT FOR THE INTERSTATE CORRIDOR FROM POCATELLO TO BURLEY WHERE WARMER TEMPS WILL RESULT IN A RAIN/SNOW MIX WITH MINIMAL ACCUMULATION. AS THE UPPER TROF MOVES THRU THE PSC NW. MAJOR UPPER RIDGING BUILDS IN BY THU.
HAVE INCREASED COVERAGE OF FLURRIES/ISOLATED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WORDING IN THE FCST TODAY PER CURRENT OBSERVATIONS OF WIDESPREAD FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW OCCURRING IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE LOW CLOUDS. A TROUGH WILL DROP OUT OF CANADA AND PASS OVER THE NORTHLAND OVERNIGHT.
A WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE AREA DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY WITH LIGHT PRECIPITATION SPREADING ALONG THE COAST BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND THEN SPREADING INLAND DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ON WEDNESDAY. PRECIPITATION WITH THIS WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT AND GENERALLY LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH. CURRENT MODELS ARE TRENDING DRIER WITH THE WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH OF THE AREA AND A COLD FRONT STILL OFFSHORE.
AT CHA/TYS SNOW COULD SWITCH OVER TO SLEET/FREEZING RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON.
THE CENTER OF THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SKIRT THROUGH SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN TODAY. GUIDANCE TEMPS DEPICTING HIGHS IN THE LOWER 20S APPEARS FINE FOR TODAY. COMING OFF THE LOWER TEENS FOR LOWS THURSDAY MORNING.
A large area of freezing drizzle overspread portions of the area associated with weak isentropic lift in the lower levels, along with frontogenesis near 850mb. Due to the amount of time it took to saturate the atmosphere this morning, along with ice amounts from freezing drizzle, previous snow amounts were lowered quite a bit. As this upper level trough moves out of the area by early evening, diminishing forcing and isentropic downglide will bring precipitation to an end. If skies do clear, temperatures very well may dip into the high single digits given that winds will also become almost calm. Weak low level ridging keeps the bulk of the troposphere below 0C but south winds ahead of it do allow for some warm air advection.
1249 AM EST WED JAN 20 2016 LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER EASTERN CANADA THROUGH THURSDAY.
BEFORE A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEYOND THIS TAF PERIOD.
A LONG WAVE TROUGH OFFSHORE WILL EJECT SEVERAL SHORT WAVES THAT WILL PASS OVER THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA TODAY HAS CLEARED OUT TO THE EAST AND A SHORT WAVE RIDGE IS NOW BUILDING INTO THE AREA. THE BUILDING RIDGE WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT NORTH THROUGH THE AREA LATER TODAY WITH LIGHT PRECIPITATION SPREADING ALONG THE COAST BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND THEN SPREADING INLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PRECIPITATION WITH THIS WARM FRONT WILL BE LIGHT AND GENERALLY LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH. THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD AS IT PROGRESSES. THE LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL THEN EDGE CLOSER TO THE COAST. AS IT WILL BE MOVING INTO AN AMPLIFYING RIDGE.
The going forecast mentions areas of freezing fog later tonight. Will keep the freezing fog in the forecast for tonight and let the next shift adjust as necessary. The upper wave continues to move through during the evening hours with the models showing an upper low closing off as it moves through north central Kansas during the evening. Given that the model soundings show a drier layer in the lower levels that will have to be overcome, think that these amounts are too high and will continue with the current snow forecast of up to two inches in central Kansas. The end of the work week will see a dry and warmer trend as a strong upper level ridge builds over the central Plains.
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 35 33 44 40 / 90 30 70 90 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 33 29 43 37 / 90 30 60 90 OAK RIDGE, TN 33 28 42 38 / 100 30 60 90 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 33 26 43 34 / 90 50 30 90 NC.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
CONFIDENCE IS NOT AS HIGH ABOUT SNOWFALL IN THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS OF KLAMATH AND LAKE COUNTY. WEDNESDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE A MORE QUIET DAY AS A RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. THE MAIN LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL SEND ANOTHER FRONT INLAND ON THURSDAY.
MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TONIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ALOFT.
Drier/warmer air near the Trans Pecos and Marfa Plateau have resulted in elevated fire weather conditions this afternoon. Gusty northwest winds will veer slightly to the north by this evening with the passage of a cold front. Another cold front is will move through on Thursday with gusty north winds expected much of the day.
RADAR AND SURFACE OBS UPSTREAM DO INDICATE A SOME SCATTERED LINGERING FLURRIES NORTHWEST BACK TO THE TROUGH AXIS OVER SOUTHERN WISCONSIN/NE IA AND SE MN. GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND WEAK THERMAL ADVECTION HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR HIGH TEMPS AND TOWARD THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR LOW TEMPS.
THE HIGHEST REPORTS. THE TROUGH THAT BROUGHT THE SNOW TO THE AREA IS SHIFTING EAST TOWARD INDIANA AND KY/TN BY 12Z WITH SUBSIDENCE TONIGHT.
/ISSUED 346 AM EST WED JAN 20 2016/ ANOTHER QUIET WEATHER DAY FOR SOUTH FLORIDA, WITH HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUING TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH. BY THURSDAY MORNING, IT WILL BE OVER EASTERN TEXAS, WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH. THE LOW WILL THE BE OVER NORTHERN LOUISIANA, WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING INTO THE CENTRAL GULF.
910 PM PST TUE JAN 19 2016 A WEAK TROUGH WILL BRING AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN. BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BRING DRY.
423 AM CST WED JAN 20 2016 Will have a pair of upper troughs move across the area today and Thursday.
1147 PM EST TUE JAN 19 2016 THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW VERY WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS INDIANA FROM THE SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD FOLLOW IT.
VERY WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS INDIANA FROM THE SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD FOLLOW IT.
COLD FRONT ARRIVES BETWEEN 07Z AND 09Z THURSDAY. WITH MODEL GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE TROUGH TO PINCH OFF AND DEEPEN AS IT HEADS TOWARD EAST TEXAS.
NEXT CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW MOVES IN MAINLY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS DETERMINISTIC MODELS DRIVE ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AS OF 2 AM SHOWING A MID-LEVEL CLOSED LOW ROTATING EASTWARD ACROSS MN/WESTERN WI. ONGOING FLURRY/VERY LIGHT SNOW ACROSS UNDER THIS LOW ACROSS EASTERN MN PER RADAR MOSAIC/SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. MODELS SHOWING THIS CLOSED LOW CONTINUING TO ROTATE EASTWARD ACROSS WI. BY AFTERNOON WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE LOW. MID-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE PLAINS. QUIET TONIGHT AS RIDGE DRIFT EAST ACROSS THE AREA. A WEAK MID-LEVEL TROUGH DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON/THURSDAY NIGHT. A FEW DEGREES WARMER THURSDAY WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO TOP OFF IN THE MIDDLE 20S MOST PLACES. ONCE THIS TROUGH MOVES THROUGH.
ON A WHOLE WE WILL SEE THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INCREASE OVERNIGHT ALOFT AND USHER IN WARMER TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS FROM WEST TO EAST. THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. SOME DRIZZLE AND/OR LIGHT RAIN IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH THE LOW STRATUS.
A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM ENCOMPASSED MUCH OF THE EASTERN US WHILE LOW PRESSURE CONTINUED DEVELOPING OVER THE ROCKIES. ITERATIONS OF THE HRRR INDICATE THE LOW VISIBILITIES PERSISTING UNTIL LATE MORNING. SOME COLD ADVECTION TONIGHT AS NORTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP AROUND THE LOW CENTER (IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS). HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COOLER WHILE CHANCES FOR SNOW SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AS A SHORT WAVE SLIDES DOWN THE FRONT SIDE OF THE RIDGE BUILDING TO THE WEST.
HIGH PRESSURE AND WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BRING WARMING AND DRYING ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
335 AM EST WED JAN 20 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. WITH WARMER OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S EXPECTED.
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE TEXARKANA AREA. AND AN ATTENDANT WARM FRONT OVER SOUTHERN ARKANSAS. AND IT LOOKS LIKE THE TEMPERATURE WILL LIKELY FALL TO OR A LITTLE BELOW FREEZING IN THE METRO AREA BEFORE PRECIPITATION ENDS.
THOUGH A MID LEVEL TROUGH WAS MOVING INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY TURN SOUTHERLY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO REACH INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S ACROSS THE REGION. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND LIFT IS FORECAST TO INCREASE ACROSS OUR REGION TONIGHT WITHIN INCREASING W/SW FLOW ALOFT IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SOUTHERN STREAM MID LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE INCREASING MOISTURE/LIFT AND PRESENCE OF A WEAK WARM FRONT THAT WILL STRETCH OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MS/AL TONIGHT WILL RESULT IN INCREASING COVERAGE OF RAIN SHOWERS. LOW LEVEL RETURN FLOW WILL SUPPORT WARMER TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. WITH LOWS EXPECTED TO RANGE IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS.
SOME PATCHY FREEZING ESPECIALLY IF THE WESTERN EDGE DOES NOT HOLD TOUGH AND BEGINS TO ERODE EARLY THIS MORNING. THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING FOG WILL END BY MID-MORNING. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TODAY INTO THURSDAY WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY. THE NEXT ROUND OF PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SECOND WAVE AND COLD FRONT IS NOW EXPECTED TO MAINLY AFFECT THE SOUTHERN HALF OR SO OF THE FA LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/FREEZING DRIZZLE MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF MAINLY NORTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL OK. FREEZING RAIN/FREEZING DRIZZLE AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT SO NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED FROM ANY ICE ACCUMULATIONS.
253 AM PST WED JAN 20 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR TODAY AND THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES ARE COOL WITH GENERALLY 40S ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY WHICH WILL LIKELY PRODUCE BLOWING SNOW AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES OVER THE HIGH PASSES. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS MAY BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER AND PRECIPITATION MAY BE POSSIBLE EARLIER OVER THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. MOZLEY MAIN PORTION OF THE UPPER TROUGH SLIDES EASTWARD THROUGH COLORADO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. TROUGH THEN MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS THU. WITH UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE ROCKIES FRI/SAT. NEXT TROUGH MOVES INTO THE WESTERN U.
Additionally, low temperatures will be 10 to 20 degrees cooler than last night as we lose our blanket of clouds. A ridge of high pressure builds over western Montana and central Idaho on Thursday, starting a warming trend over the region. Some moisture may stream over the top of the ridge into northwest Montana, but most locations are expected to remain dry.
240 AM CST WED JAN 20 2016 We will get a brief respite from the wintry weather today as short wave ridging overspreads the area. We generally went on the cooler side of guidance. This should result in most areas rising above the freezing mark. If precipitation were to occur, we would be looking at light snow or sleet with perhaps some freezing drizzle potential as we get closer to sunrise on Thursday (loss of cloud ice).
1142 PM EST TUE JAN 19 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT 1 CURRENT SURFACE MAP SHOWS WARM FRONT ACROSS SOUTHEAST MONTANA INTO FAR WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. WEAK FORCING UPPER FORCING ALONG WITH INVERTED SURFACE TROF MAY RESULT IN A LIGHT DUSTING OF SNOW.
346 AM EST WED JAN 20 2016 ANOTHER QUIET WEATHER DAY FOR SOUTH FLORIDA, WITH HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUING TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH. BY THURSDAY MORNING, IT WILL BE OVER EASTERN TEXAS, WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH. THE LOW WILL THE BE OVER NORTHERN LOUISIANA, WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING INTO THE CENTRAL GULF.
A SHRTWV TROF ADVECTING THROUGH NW FLOW LEAD TO SNOW ACROSS THE IOWA AND N MO THIS AFTERNOON. A LOOK AT THE FORECAST PLUMES SUGGESTS THAT THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FOR 3+ INCHES WILL BE ACROSS OUR EXTREME SOUTH. QUIET AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS THE HIGH MOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST MAY BRING SOME FLURRIES OR VERY LIGHT SNOW TO THE HIGHWAY 20 CORRIDOR WEST OF DUBUQUE.
AND WITH THE CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW AS LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATER TODAY.
WENT AHEAD AND ADDED THE SOUTH LARAMIE RANGE AND EASTERN FOOTHILLS INTO THE HIGH WIND WARNINGS AS WE ARE GOING TO BE VERY CLOSE TO HITTING 60MPH OVER THE SUMMIT TONIGHT THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY. BUT SNOWFALL RATES SHOULD BEGIN TO PICK UP ON WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES BEGIN TO STEEPEN. THE BIGGER CONCERN WILL BE THE ARLINGTON ZONE WHERE THE LOW LEVEL HEIGHT GRADIENT (800-700MB) IS EXPECTED TO TIGHTEN WHICH SHOULD FAVOR MUCH STRONGER WINDS WITH SPEEDS UP 50 MPH. THE NEXT CONCERN IS THE HIGH WIND POTENTIAL IN BORDEAUX. WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY NIGHT: THE SNOW/BLOWING SNOW AND HIGH WINDS SHOULD BEGIN CALM DOWN ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD OVER THE AREA.
319 AM EST WED JAN 20 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. WITH WARMER OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S EXPECTED.
THEN WHEN ADDED TO THE COLDER TROUGH FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING SNOW AMOUNTS SHOULD REACH CRITERIA OR BETTER. SATELLITE SHOWS A NICE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT BASIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS AGREE WELL WITH H5 LOW PRESSURE FEATURE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON LOCATED OVER THE PARK RANGE OF NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO AND SOUTH CENTRAL WYOMING BY 5PM WEDNESDAY. THIS LOW PRESSURE IS ACCOMPANIED BY A -30C CORE OVERHEAD. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE BY THURSDAY MORNING AS CHILLY NORTHERLY FLOW BUILDS IN WITH HIGH PRESSURE AMPLIFYING OVER THE GREAT BASIN.
1238 AM MST WED JAN 20 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TODAY RESULTING IN MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
WE ARE EXPECTING TEMPS TO TOP OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.
Areas of freezing drizzle continue over portions of NE OK and NW AR late this evening. resulting in pockets of brief moderate sleet/freezing rain this evening. although could see a few more hours of light freezing drizzle.
THE PRECIP WILL GRADUALLY CHANGE TO ALL RAIN BY THE LATE MORNING/VERY EARLY AFTERNOON AS WARMER AIR AND A MORE SATURATED LOWER COLUMN IS REALIZED. PENETRATING LONGWAVE RADIATION FROM THE SUN SHOULD HELP WARM SURFACES TO ABOVE FREEZING LATER WED MORNING AND ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON. A WORRY LOCALLY WILL BE PRECIP FALLING ON A GROUND THAT IS AT OR BELOW FREEZING. THIS WILL RESULT IN FREEZING RAIN. RESIDUAL DEEPER COLD AIR SHOULD BRING A MIX OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN. GIVEN ALREADY AT OR BELOW LOCAL FREEZING TEMPS. EXPECT PRECIP TO BEGIN AS RAIN/FREEZING RAIN/SLEET/SNOW OVER NW AL LATE TONIGHT. THE PRECIP SHOULD GRADUALLY BECOME ALL RAIN BY LOCAL NOON AS WARMER AIR RETURNS.
SNOW SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY DURING THE EARLY TO MID MORNING HOURS THERE AS THE UPPER TROF AXIS APPROACHES.
Any cigs that develop with the lower clouds later in the forecast period are still expected to be around 4-5kft and are expected to bounce between BKN and SCT. On Wednesday, weak high pressure remains over Florida. Highs will be warmer in the upper 50s and near 60. On Thursday, a low will develop over the Lower Mississippi River Valley. On Thursday night, POPs will be 60 to 80 percent west of a line from Albany to Tallahassee as a cold front moves toward the region.
INVERTED TROUGH WAS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS AND WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY AND TONIGHT. WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER CENTRAL MAN. UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN ONTARIO BY THU AFTERNOON. COOLER AIR WILL MOVE OUT OF CANADA THIS AFTERNOON AND SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THU AND PRODUCE SOME FLURRIES'LIGHT SNOW OVER THE SOUTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL MOVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA SAT NIGHT.
548 AM CST WED JAN 20 2016 POTPOURRI OF FLYING CONDITIONS THIS MORNING ACROSS OUR REGION DEPENDING ON WHAT SIDE OF A COLD FRONT YOU ARE ON. THE COLD FRONT AS OF 11Z WAS LOCATED NEAR AN ELD. THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH OUR REGION THIS MORNING WILL STALL ACROSS SE TX INTO S LA LATER TODAY AND BEGIN RETURNING NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT BUT SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR THROUGH 21/12Z. /ISSUED 500 AM CST WED JAN 20 2016/ THE COLD FRONT IS DRAPED OVER EAST TEXAS WITH NORTHWEST WINDS AT TEXARKANA.
SKIES WILL BECOME PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY ON WEDNESDAY AND WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY WITH A MILD SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING BY THE WEEKEND. PACIFIC NORTHWEST TROUGH HAS MOVED ONSHORE THIS EVENING. THE MAIN TROUGH IS PROGGED TO REACH FAR NORTHWEST UTAH JUST BEFORE SUNRISE. EXPECTING BETTER PRECIP RATES WITH THE TROUGH TOMORROW ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING COMPARED TO WHAT HAS BEEN OBSERVED TONIGHT.
POTENTIAL THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS OVER CNTRL AND EAST TO LEAD TO STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH TEMPS RISING LATE AS THE LOW CLOUDS INCREASE FM WEST TO EAST. WITH A WEAK RIDGE/LAKE INDUCED LOW SLOWLY DEEPENING ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR AS THE RIDGE EXITS. THE MAIN IMPACT WILL BE TO INCREASE NW FLOW ACROSS THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA BEHIND THE WEAK SFC-500MB TROUGH AND ENHANCING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS THERE.
105 AM EDT WED JUL 15 2015 AN INLAND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES INTO SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE AREA LATE IN THE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. WE ARE SHOWING THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THIS AREA. THE SURFACE FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED OVER THE AREA AND WE WILL HAVE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST GA.
AS THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTHEAST.
228 AM EDT WED JUL 15 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE TODAY.
COOLER AND DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO FLOW INTO NRN MICHIGAN FROM THE NORTH. HIGHS TODAY IN THE LOWER HALF OF THE 70S FOR MOST. COOLER LAKESHORES. PREVIOUS RUNS HELD OFF THE PRECIPITATION UNTIL THE EVENING, BUT NOW THE MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO INSIST THAT THE MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION ALONG THE WARM FRONT AND PRODUCE THUNDERSTORMS. THE ONLY INSTABILITY WITH THIS IS THE 0-3 KM MU CAPES SHOWING SOME INSTABILITY AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION.
156 AM EDT WED JUL 15 2015 A COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM CANADA WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
410 AM EDT WED JUL 15 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY. PROVIDING COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS FOR MID WEEK. WITH LOWS THURSDAY MORNING DIPPING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S.
Elsewhere over south central, west central KY, and southwest IN, expect high temps to range from the low to mid 80s. Low temps should range from the lower 60s to around 70.