Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Warmer temperatures are forecast overnight, albeit still below seasonal normals. An upper level low/trough currently across the Intermountain West will track across the Desert Southwest overnight, then across the Texas Panhandle on Monday. The track of the aforementioned upper level low will keep the better dynamics north and east of our forecast area, keeping the better rain chances to our east. A stronger push of colder air is forecast with the departure of the upper level low late Monday afternoon and early evening, with gusty north winds of 15 to 20 mph.
With the cold front, there will be slim moisture. With the exit of the frontal boundary, a body of high pressure will begin to enlarge over the Gulf of Mexico sending drier air into south Florida. High temperatures will run near normal in the low-to-mid 80s through Monday with nightly lows in the mid-to- upper 60s.
Soundings indicate dry air in the lower levels, so not expecting much more than a tenth or two of accumulation in those areas by 12Z. With the cloud cover overnight, lows will remain in the lower to mid 20s east of I-29, while a more scattered coverage and ensuing cold air advection will allow temperatures to drop into the lower to mid teens to the west of there. Model soundings suggest that the dendritic layer dries out over northwestern IA by Monday afternoon, so there could be a brief transition to freezing drizzle prior to ending, though ice accumulation looks negligible at this point. For the remainder of the upcoming week, models are in good agreement on a broad upper level trough developing over the central and eastern CONUS through midweek.
1129 AM CST Sun Nov 13 2022 (Today and tonight) The upper low currently over Nevada/northern California will continue to dig southeastward towards the Four Corners region today through this evening as weak upper ridging dominates over the FA. The upper low is expected to be approaching the Texas/New Mexico state line by sunrise tomorrow morning bringing with it a cold front and the possibility for light precip possibly in the form of a wintry mix. While there will be decent lift from diffluence just ahead of the upper trough, moisture across all levels will be lacking as moisture being transported by the storm system will just be on the fringes of the FA.
Therefore, should be plenty of sunshine across the forecast area as the high pressure system moves across.
An upper-level trough, currently well to our west over the Great Basin, will track eastward over OK/TX by midday Monday before lifting towards the northeast over AR/MO overnight Monday. Low temperatures Monday night are still expected to hover a few degrees above freezing which will support rain as the dominant precipitation type.
1012 AM EST Sun Nov 13 2022 Clearing skies along with much cooler and drier weather will be over the region through Monday.
Water vapor satellite indicates a diving upper low over eastern Montana into western North Dakota. This low will continue to push southeastward tonight, leading to increasing snow chances through Monday.
Impacts remain isolated to mainly visibility issues, with the lowest observations at this time ranging from 4 to 5 statute miles. Continued NW flow aloft in the 250mb level allows for waves to translate down from NW Canada and Alaska that ride along the amplified ridge in the Gulf of Alaska.
Northerly winds around 10 knots this afternoon will east to 5 knots or less tonight, but as a system approaches from the west, winds will begin to shift to easterly as they rise back to around 10 knots /16 (Now through Monday) Zonal upper flow over the Southeast begins to rotate from w-e to sw-ne as an upper level trough moves over the Southern Plains tonight into Monday and an upper ridge builds over the central Atlantic. Today, am still expecting temperatures to top out in the low 50s north of Highway 84 to around 60 along the coast. Areas along and north of Highway 84 will see temperatures ranging from the upper 20 to near freezing, with mid to upper 30s south to near the coast, and around 40 along the coast.
A long wave trough axis reaches south into Florida. A cold front stretches southwest across north-central Florida into the central Gulf of Mexico. A prefrontal trough is dissipating over the Straits of Florida. There are a few showers ahead of the advancing cold front near the west coast of Florida. Temperatures are just above 80 with dewpoints in the lower to mid 70s.
Even with temperatures above freezing initially across much of south central and southeast Kansas, wetbulb profiles suggest temperatures will remain below 3C or approach freezing in the shallow surface warm layer supporting a quick transition to snow once the precipitation begins to ramp up toward midday or early afternoon. Due to the transient nature of the mesoscale forcing and quick movement of the mid/upper trough as well as the Nov sun angle and relatively warm soils, most locations are expected to see an inch or less of accumulation. Much below normal temperatures will prevail through the period as we remain within a larger-scale mid/upper trough across the central CONUS.
335 PM EST Sun Nov 13 2022 Discussion/Marine --Quiet but Cold Through Monday Night-- Remaining lake effect snows will diminish or end this evening as surface ridging builds in.
Temps have generally gotten close to or already topped out for their highs today, in the mid 20s inland to around the freezing mark along lakeshores and in the south-central. The main story for Sunday night through the week will be troughing and more troughing with continued cool temperatures and precipitation chances. Many of those in the high country will probably remain below freezing through the week and a reinforcement of cold air will bring the chilliest air yet this season to all the U.
1027 AM MST Sun Nov 13 2022 Current surface analysis shows arctic frontal boundary remaining mostly along the lee of the Rockies into the southern Plains, with high pressure to the east and northeast of the region. Upper level analysis still has large scale trough covering a good portion of the US, with embedded systems across the intermountain west, south central Canada, and north of the Great Lakes.
Early afternoon satellite imagery was showing a low pressure system rotating SSE through ERN Montana with attending upslope NNE flow and accompanying precipitation stacking up along the SW Montana and NW Wyoming divide. An upper level ridge holds firm across Vancouver Island Monday as a second impulse rotates south through ERN Montana with another round of associated clouds and upslope precipitation stacking up along the SW Montana and NW Wyoming divide Monday afternoon and evening.
Upper level troughing extends southward through the Ohio River Valley, then becoming more quasi-zonal over Florida. On the surface, an area of low pressure sits off the New England coast with a cold front extending south through the western Atlantic, across central Florida and into the Gulf of Mexico. The front moves south of Florida and washes out by Monday morning and high pressure settles in over the east coast.
A low pressure system will move across Arizona tonight, resulting in dissipating clouds and winds. Through next Sunday Upper low over northwest Arizona with radar mainly detecting virga; but there may be a very light showers embedded. Upper low progged to steadily move across Arizona tonight with clouds and winds diminishing.
MT Brief ridging over the area today with breezy north to east winds over the region. The winds will go light this evening allowing temperatures to cool to near freezing for a lot of areas in the valley. A weak but dry low pressure area will move south along the coast tonight and Monday.
A low pressure system is moving from southern Utah into northern Arizona this afternoon. Ahead of the low, gusty southwest winds have developed, with the strongest winds over east central Arizona where a Wind Advisory remains until 5 PM. Though the low is somewhat moisture starved, synoptic lift and instability have resulted in the development of scattered snow showers over northwest Coconino County. As the low progresses southeastward through late tonight, isolated to scattered snow showers will spread across the area mainly north of I-40, though there is a low chance as far south as the White Mountains.
The upper level low that brought light snow to portions of central NV earlier this morning has now moved SE, centering over southern NV/UT and northern AZ.
Updated pops to expand the high chance and likely pops this evening over much of the south central and extended chance pops north into the north central.
204 PM MST Sun Nov 13 2022 High amplitude ridge over the eastern Pacific and an upper level Low over Manitoba have placed Montana in a north to northwesterly flow aloft.
Although forcing in this layer will diminish, weak lingering lift and sufficient moisture depth may still result in a transition from light snow to light freezing drizzle.
Due to a deepening trough over the Rockies and an inverted trough over the northern Plains, winds are gusting to 25 to 35 mph this afternoon. one associated with a deepening upper level trough moving across the northern Plains Monday morning and the second associated with another low around Texas and Oklahoma. While it wouldn't take much of a shift to the northeast to give our southern counties a little more accumulating snow, the persistence of model output keeping that to the south and the weak high pressure to the north leads me to believe that southernmost solution.
A cyclone aloft will pass east of California today, resulting in clouds banking up along the east side and south end of the San Joaquin Valley.
Expect light snowfall in the high country; by morning, accumulations up to 3 inches are possible up along the Continental Divide and higher east slopes of the Front Range mountains and foothills. Persistent northerly surface winds and cold air advection will keep high temperatures in the 30s across the plains mostly 20s in the high country, generally 10 to 20 F below normal across the area. In addition, there will be another surge of cooler air moving across nern CO with weak upslope along the front range. Across the plains it will be dry with slightly warmer temps. For Thu into Fri, the flow aloft will become more NWLY as a stg cold front moves into nern CO by Thu aftn.
While most areas will see less than 1 inch of snow on Monday, some of the higher terrain of the Little Belt and Snowy Mountains could see up to 6 inches of snow. Expect highs to be slightly warmer with some of the lower elevations getting into the low 30s. Temperatures across the region vary from the low 20s where clouds have lingered to the low 30s across the Hi-Line, where the sun has managed to make an appearance.
A large area of high pressure out of the northern/mid Plains continues to gradually build into the Midwest/OH Valley regions, which is allowing a continued influx of modified arctic air into the area. Sfc flow out of the NNE near 10-15 MPH with higher gusts is also resulting in Wind Chill values mainly in the lower 30s. A few patchy areas of fog/freezing fog are also possible, although light mixing in the lower levels may offset the prob for more fog.
751 PM EST Sun Nov 13 2022 Quiet conditions continue this evening behind a cold front that brought a few showers and storms earlier today.
Quiet weather will continue across the forecast area the rest of tonight, with the main question being to what extent a wave of high cirrus overspreading the region will hinder temperatures falling to below freezing. In the typically cooler spots around the area, Min Temps could read in the mid 20s early Monday morning. High pressure and dry/cold conditions will prevail overnight, with lows falling into the upper 20s and low 30s once again. The flow will become more southeasterly and along with warmer temperatures, moisture will begin to increase.
Even with temperatures above freezing initially across much of south central and southeast Kansas, wetbulb profiles suggest temperatures will remain below 3C or approach freezing in the shallow surface warm layer supporting a quick transition to snow once the precipitation begins to ramp up toward midday or early afternoon. Due to the transient nature of the mesoscale forcing and quick movement of the mid/upper trough as well as the Nov sun angle and relatively warm soils, most locations are expected to see an inch or less of accumulation. Much below normal temperatures will prevail through the period as we remain within a larger-scale mid/upper trough across the central CONUS. VFR conditions tonight with deteriorating cigs/vsbys on Monday with approaching upper trof expected to bring a round of light snow to the region.
- Snow totals of 1 to 3 inches are expected through Monday evening, followed by a chance of freezing drizzle Monday night. Drier air has mixed out some of the low clouds east of I-35, but as sunset approaches and winds aloft remain quite weak, not foreseeing this clearing continuing much longer. With sufficient lift in the supercooled droplet layer, freezing drizzle could become the dominant p-type but any amounts would be quite light.
However, windy conditions have developed across the lower Colorado Valley and extending eastward across the Phoenix metro this afternoon.
Cooler than normal temperatures will continue into this week across the Inland Northwest. The warmest area is the Lower Basin in the mid 30s.
643 PM EST Sun Nov 13 2022 Aviation --Quiet but Cold Through Monday Night-- Remaining lake effect snows will diminish or end this evening as surface ridging builds in.
537 PM CST Sun Nov 13 2022 (This afternoon through Monday night) Upper trough over NV this morning swings across AZ today and into NM tonight. This trough will pass across SE NM Monday and across W TX. While this is happening a new upper low will work down the CA coast Monday and Monday night. As the trough approaches wind speeds across the mountains will increase, High Wind Warning tonight into Monday morning for the Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains. The upper trough will also push a Pacific front through the area Monday with a very gusty W to NW wind.
High pressure is filling in behind an upper level low pressure system that is moving east across the Great Basin. Otherwise, the ECMWF and GFS show a low pressure disturbance moving south across the region during early Monday morning.
122 AM EST Mon Nov 14 2022 High pressure will bring dry and continued cool conditions to the region on Monday. The next chance for precipitation will arrive later Monday night into Tuesday as a low pressure system moves into the Ohio Valley. Mid level flow backs westerly with broad ridging building across the area overnight into Monday. Low temperatures will vary from the upper teens in areas that clear to the lower and middle 20s where clouds linger. The low pressure is splitting Tuesday morning with one half developing off the East Coast and the other slowly moving through the area during the day Tuesday. Impacts to travel Tuesday morning: Early morning snow chances and road/ground temperatures near freezing create some concern for slick spots for the Tuesday morning commute.
331 AM EST Mon Nov 14 2022 Discussion/Marine --Cold and fair weather into Tuesday-- The upper level trough that coupled with lake enhancement and brought the lakeshore their first significant snowfall of the season will continue its trek eastward. A ridge of high pressure will build over the region today and allow for downsloping through the region.
Given forecast lows in the mid/upr 20s, patchy freezing fog could occur in a few spots. (Monday through Tuesday night) The broad high pressure will translate eastward into much of the mid/NE Atlantic states starting off the new work week, which should allow for the air mass over the mid TN Valley to somewhat recover, as evidenced by highs on Mon climbing into the mid 50s. This complex will be aided by a broad upper trough pattern dropping into the mid/southern Plains before lifting into the region late Mon into Tue. Given the air mass recovery, afternoon highs both Mon/Tue look to climb into the lower/mid 50s, while lows Mon/Tue nights range from the mid 30s/lower 40s.
1144 PM CST Sun Nov 13 2022 Quiet weather will continue across the forecast area the rest of tonight, with the main question being to what extent a wave of high cirrus overspreading the region will hinder temperatures falling to below freezing. In the typically cooler spots around the area, Min Temps could read in the mid 20s early Monday morning. High pressure and dry/cold conditions will prevail overnight, with lows falling into the upper 20s and low 30s once again. The flow will become more southeasterly and along with warmer temperatures, moisture will begin to increase.
--Quiet but Cold Through Monday Night-- Remaining lake effect snows will diminish or end this evening as surface ridging builds in.
Temperatures will be a little cooler today, especially north of the boundary where afternoon highs in the mid 90s are expected across the Big Country, with highs in the upper 90s to around 100 degrees elsewhere. Lows tonight will be mainly in the lower 70s. Rain chances begin to increase through the rest of the week, as upper level flow turns northerly(weak disturbances/MCVs), a weak cold front moving south across Texas and abundant tropical moisture(PW values 1.
Meanwhile the cold front/dew point decrease has reached the southern border of our forecast area, propelled by northerly flow at the surface and aloft. This northerly flow aloft is due to a seasonably anomalous trough over the East Coast and ridging over Texas. Light northeast flow will be in place tonight, with cool air drainage allowing lows in the northeastern cooler valleys to reach the lower 60s with upper 60s expected elsewhere under clear skies.
Attention turns to a pattern changing cold front pushing south out of Manitoba Monday evening.
At the surface we retain the high pressure system to the east, with a light south breeze and little change in humidity.
358 AM EDT Sun Jul 30 2017 Dry with pleasant temperatures today as high pressure builds in from the northwest. A cold front from Quebec will approach the region on Monday and move across the region Monday afternoon and evening.
Forcing from the nearly east to west oriented shear axis across central CO embedded within the upper ridge will continue to provide forcing for showers and thunderstorms through the day as this feature sags slowly southward. Exception to this may be the Raton ridge area which should see activity start to fire by 2 PM.
1135 PM MDT Sat Jul 29 2017 Noticeable spin seen on radar this afternoon in southwestern Colorado as a midlevel low pressure system treks across the state. This low, acting in tangent with monsoonal moisture streaming in from down south, has produced another day of scattered showers and thunderstorms. From Monday onwards, high pressure builds in and is centered over the Great Basin to our west.
Temperatures across the northeast CWA will be a few degrees cooler today. But across the southwest CWA temperatures will be near yesterday's readings or potentially a degree or two warmer near the Rio Grande where compressional warming occurs. Temps a couple of degrees cooler, but still above normal.
515 AM CDT Sun Jul 30 2017 Sfc cold front has pushed south of our terminal airspace this morning with post frontal winds mostly from the E to NE near or less than 10kts. IR Imagery this morning showing that the low levels of the atmosphere still containing a little moisture, in the form of 4-6kft cloud cover across portions of NE TX into SW AR and extreme NW LA. Deep northerly flow aloft and broad upper troughing over great lakes region will keep this new somewhat cooler and drier pattern across the area.
The associated lift and moistening within the weak mid-level thermal trof may support scattered elevated showers/isolated storms, mainly west of K-14 highway. Temperatures should also be a few degrees cooler today with an increase in clouds. Any precip chances should be shunted mostly southwest of the forecast area during Monday with temperatures a bit warmer in central Kansas, though still below seasonal climo.
147 AM EDT Sun Jul 30 2017 High pressure will build across the midwest and Ohio Valley the early in the week, then slide off the southeast coast mid week.
636 AM EDT Sun Jul 30 2017 High pressure over the western Great Lakes will provide dry and comfortable northerly flow over central PA to finish the weekend. High pressure will build over the region Monday. Highs will range from the mid to upper 70s north to the lower 80s southeast with a light northerly breeze, and comfortable humidity. Monday afternoon a surface cold front will drop south into Upstate NY.
At 2 AM CDT, a warm front extended from northwest Iowa through southeast Iowa and central Illinois. Early morning temperatures ranged from the low 60s to low 70s.
This elevated subsidence inversion is a little stronger and lower than yesterday and will result in temperatures a bit warmer this afternoon as some of that layer mixes down. Upper level ridge of high pressure currently expands across the eastern half of the United States. Strong subsidence underneath this ridge will suppress any chance for convection, thus chance of rain today is 0%. The ridge will gradually slide east but remain anchored over the Gulf of Mexico and western Atlantic later this week as a broad trough replaces it from the west.
1024 AM EDT Tue May 16 2017 High pressure builds over the Mid Atlantic region today, before sliding offshore and bringing warmer conditions for the mid to late week period.
Isolated, westward-moving showers are developing periodically across the Straits of Florida, with non-precipitating cumulus lines streaming off the lower Keys.
/Issued 315 AM CDT Tue May 16 2017/ Closed off upper level low near Las Vegas, NV will open up as it moves this way today and tonight. As this upper level feature approaches the panhandles today, upper level diffluence will increase, low level moisture will increase and the lower and mid level shear will increase. A Pacific cold front will sweep across the panhandles by late this evening and this should touch off another round of thunderstorms when it catches up to the dryline, but these are expected to be east of our area.
1055 AM EDT Tue May 16 2017 High pressure will hold dry weather and above normal temperatures across the area through most of the week. Water vapor imagery confirmed dry air over the forecast area at mid levels with an upper ridge axis building into the region. Temperatures have been warming quickly with CAE already at 83 degrees and decided to bump up max temperatures just a touch with local scheme giving temperatures in the lower to mid 90s at Columbia. Models indicate a mean upper ridge east of the Mississippi River and a mean upper trough over the western states into the weekend.
At 06Z, high pressure was centered in VA/NC with a ridge axis west- southwest through AL. This ridge will shift east through the day allowing a southerly flow to develop at the surface.
The higher elevations of the northern Sierra Nevada will see several inches of accumulating snow. Dry and warmer weather returns for the second half of the week. Showers are expected to spread southward to around I-80 by midday, then spread further south through the afternoon and evening as the cold front moves through. The higher peaks may receive up to 4 inches of snowfall accumulation. Some slushy accumulation may occur over the higher passes later today and this evening which could result in some travel impacts. At the lower elevations, breezy southerly winds will continue today as the front approaches. The system moves quickly out of the area later tonight and early Wednesday with dry and progressively warmer weather expected through the remainder of the week.
given high pressure ridge at surface and aloft over the area.