Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1021 PM EST Sun Dec 24 2017 A pair of low pressure areas will impact the region with a 5 to 8 hour period of snow tonight and early Christmas morning. Very windy and much colder conditions will follow for Monday as the lows strengthen to the north of Pennsylvania, with the cold airmass staying in place through the upcoming week. The strongest wind/gusts will occur Monday morning and early aftn as a mesoscale area of 2-3 sigma 850 mb wind shifts north across the region in the wake of intensifying low pressure over New York State.
/27/ Prior discussion below: Through Christmas Day: After clouds eroded generally south of I-20 during the day, we're seeing them build southward again as a mostly dry secondary cold frontal passage occurs this afternoon. There are currently a few light showers and sprinkles across north MS associated with the front, and while a few of those may sneak into the Highway 82 corridor, it still appears any measurable rainfall will remain north of NWS JAN territory.
The greatest snowfall totals of over one foot will occur in the Park and Gore ranges, with the Flat Tops, Elks, and northern Sawatch picking up around 8 to 15 inches in the higher terrain as well. The primary forecast challenge in this shift was snowfall totals in the lower elevations along the US-40 and I-70 corridors. It is worth mentioning that some high-res guidance does manage to saturate the lower levels enough for some flakes to fly in the Grand Junction-Rifle corridor from 6 to 8am on Christmas morning. To the south of the San Juans, the only model indicating any QPF in the lower terrain was the Canadian.
Occasional high clouds can be expected through the week, though high pressure will generally prevail, resulting in a continuation of the relatively warm conditions. Evening RAOB analysis paints broad northwest flow under subtle ridging across much of the Intermountain West ML field, with varying degrees of saturation/humidity across the surface. Subtle translation of the primary cirrus band northward provided better opportunity at sunshine today and as such, temperatures were warmer and above normal across the region today. Sky conditions do thin further, allowing for a little more sunshine tomorrow, so high temperature values for tomorrow could wind up a degree or two warmer over those from today.
1005 PM EST Sun Dec 24 2017 High clouds are streaming across the southeastern gulf waters ahead of a cold front positioned across North Florida. Temperatures are in the low to mid 70s and dew points are in the mid 60s. The wind field is likely at its lightest point right now, however, as the weak high pressure ridge axis across South Florida breaks down over the next several hours ahead of the approaching cold front. Pleasant marine conditions will continue in the immediate short term, but winds will increase Monday afternoon as a cold front moves down the Florida Peninsula and sags north of the Florida Keys.
However, a light dusting remains possible over the highest elevations of Trinity County this evening.
Cold front across se Ga into ne Fl from near SSI to CTY. Isolated showers near boundary have dissipated with a few light showers now along a prefrontal trough further south over Marion county. Clouds will decrease from the nw overnight with temperatures falling into the lower 40s over se Ga and mid 40s to low 50s across ne Fl. MVFR cigs along and s of cold front will affect ne Fl TAF sites through around 04z. SW winds will shift to the NW and increase after midnight with cold frontal passage.
Weak high pressure across the Ohio valley will drift east today and exit the area. Low pressure is expected to develop over the southern plains today and push a warm front into Kentucky tonight.
Southerly to south southeasterly winds will gust between 20 and 25 knots today, but then briefly subside late this afternoon/early evening before a cold front moves through the region. Main forecast issue will be potential for strong to severe thunderstorms late this afternoon and evening as a cold front moves through South Texas. An upper level trough will slowly move eastward through the Plains state today. Onshore flow in advance of this trough will continue to bring moisture back into the area. At the surface, a cold front will be moving southward across the state during the day. Cooler air will filter in tonight into Thursday morning as lows will fall into the upper 50s and lower 60s. A strong cold front will move through South Texas this evening.
617 AM CDT Wed May 3 2017 /12Z TAFS/ A cold front will quickly move through West Central Texas this morning, clearing the southern 3 sites by late morning or early afternoon. /issued 336 AM CDT Wed May 3 2017/ (Today and Tonight) A cold front currently over the Texas Panhandle will move through the Big Country early this morning, then through the central portions of West Central Texas by mid to late morning, finally moving through the Interstate 10 corridor by late morning or early afternoon. Behind the cold front, expect gusty north winds of 15 to 25 mph along with slightly cooler temperatures. Highs today will range from the 70s across the northern half of the forecast area to the low to mid 80s across the southern half of the area. Expect low temperatures in the low to mid 50s.
High pressure over NE FL and Georgia will push acrs the FL/GA border and merge with the Wrn Atlc Ridge overnight. Light winds will become E/NE by mid mrng, then to the E/SE overnight as the ridge pushes offshore.
943 AM CDT Wed May 3 2017 Primary band of shra within short wave trough oriented from DVL to HCO and will be swinging through the fa today with potential for T this afternoon.
715 AM EDT Wed May 3 2017 Dry weather under high pressure is expected before low pressure returns periodic rain chances later tonight night through the weekend. Building high pressure will result in mainly dry conditions outside a few isolated showers this morning as a weak boundary drops south over the forecast area. Cloud cover will diminish briefly this afternoon but increase again heading into the evening in warm advection ahead of approaching low pressure. Low pressure will deepen over the Midwest as the longwave pattern amplifies and becomes more meridional with rain slowly overspreading the region overnight. Overall model consensus still indicates areas north and west of Pittsburgh will be favored through Thursday in an inverted trough for higher rainfall amounts.
Given the steep lase rates and stretching in the low layers, could see a few strong storms this afternoon for areas west of I-135, with dime size hail the main concern. As the low-level jet veers early this morning, the MCS is expected to propagate eastward, with the brunt of it shifting to east of the Kansas Turnpike in the 12-15 UTC time- frame, before moving out of southeast Kansas. A trailing upper-level pv anomaly over the Northern High Plains early this morning, will move southeastward into the Central/Southern Plains this afternoon into tonight, which will result in an upper low forming over the Lower Mississippi Valley on Thursday. Breezy northerly winds can be expected Thursday behind the departing upper low.
Kovacik One more quiet day today ahead of the approaching deep upper low digging into the mid-Mississippi Valley tonight and into the mid- south on Thursday. Strong low-level flow sets up ahead of the upper low Thursday. Will need to monitor the potential in the higher elevations of the north Georgia Mountains for gusts approaching High Wind Warning criteria. the strong closed upper low drops into the OH and TN valley region.
A push of cool marine air ahead of a trough will occur tonight.
VFR expected next 24-hours as high pressure dominates.
As trough axis to the west slowly works in later today, associated weak cold front will bring shower and isolated thunderstorm risk to doorstep of forecast area, but weakening trend supports low rain threat. Flow becomes even more amplified in outer forecast periods as large ridge builds over western half of CONUS. As closed upper low moves by to our south for Thursday, cold front associated with trough will gradually slide through the area. At this point will honor dry forecast but this period too will have to be monitored for this low threat.
/issued 322 AM CDT Wed May 3 2017/ An upper level trough currently affecting the Texas Panhandle will sweep east today. The cold front currently moving through the region will eventually reach the Bay of Campeche which will halt any meaningful moisture return for a while. Surface winds will remain out of the north locally through Thursday afternoon but a warmup will still begin on Thursday following today's cooler than normal day. This warmup will be aided by strong upper level ridging moving overhead for the rest of the week. Models are still consistent in digging a closed low down into southern California or just off the coast this weekend.
831 AM MDT Wed May 3 2017 GOES-16 water vapor satellite imagery showing north-south jet centered over Wyoming and Colorado with a short wave trough spinning over eastern Wyoming and western Nebraska. The flow weakens and is northwesterly Thursday night as an upper ridge moves eastward towards the CWA.
Low pressure moving to our south and southeast on Thursday expected to keep the rain shield just to our south. However increasing mid/high clouds appears reasonable along with an uptick in ene winds as tighter pressure gradient evolves across se WI in conjunction with this low.
A high amplitude upper level ridge will provide warm dry weather through Thursday.
Temps will remain on the warm side today topping out near 90 for most of the area, with slightly cooler temps over the coastal areas. Winds increase from the south tonight and reach exercise caution speeds mainly offshore and in the north as the gradient tightens between high pressure to the east and an approaching frontal boundary moving in from the west.
720 AM EDT Wed May 3 2017 One more quiet day today ahead of the approaching deep upper low digging into the mid-Mississippi Valley tonight and into the mid- south on Thursday. Strong low-level flow sets up ahead of the upper low Thursday. Will need to monitor the potential in the higher elevations of the north Georgia Mountains for gusts approaching High Wind Warning criteria. the strong closed upper low drops into the OH and TN valley region.
736 AM EDT Wed May 3 2017 High pressure over the Southern Appalachian Region shifts east today so skies start out clear with light winds.
A deepening low pressure system was generating a couple of MCSs over AR/LA. For tonight, pops will increase with approach of low pressure system.
Low pressure is developing in the ARLATEX while a frontal boundary located from the low across east Arkansas to the TN/MS line will shift slowly north. Showers and thunderstorms developing ahead of the low pressure system will push into the Mid-South this afternoon continuing into tonight. The front will begin lifting slowly northward as a warm front after sunrise this morning. Temperatures south of the warm front(locations generally south of I-40) will surge into the lower to mid 80s.
Strong high pressure will build over the region through the rest of the week bringing a warming trend. Northwest flow aloft prevails across the forecast area this morning, downstream from a mid level ridge axis extending along the west coast. This ridge will build inland across the interior West over the next couple of days allowing for a warming trend along with sunny days and clear nights.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 82 60 69 49 / 10 60 90 60 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 78 58 72 49 / 0 30 80 80 Oak Ridge, TN 78 58 71 50 / 0 40 80 80 Tri Cities Airport, TN 73 52 69 49 / 0 10 30 80 NC.
BMickelson Previous short term discussion: Upper ridge along the west coast early this morning will spread across the Northern Rockies through the end of the week. Temperatures jump about 5 to 10 degrees each day with warm and dry air under the ridge spreading east with the ridge. Weak pressure gradient under the ridge will also keep winds on the light side over the next few days.
VFR conditions prevail through the TAF period as an upper level ridge builds in.
955 AM EDT Wed May 3 2017 High pressure today. An upper low brings unsettled and much cooler weather to end the work week. CAA under weak broad high pressure today. A warm front lifts north tonight and may brush the area with some -ra/-dz or maybe just sprinkles. PoPs increasing to the west as associated low pressure approaches the area.
Currently a cold front is moving through the area, shifting winds from the north and increasing to 15-25kts. /issued 324 AM CDT Wed May 3 2017/ A cold front is right on track to move south through the region throughout the morning hours today. As a result of the cold front, we are looking at cooler high temperatures today with highs generally in the upper 70s/low 80s.
1017 AM EDT Wed May 3 2017 Dry weather under high pressure is expected before low pressure returns periodic rain chances later tonight night through the weekend. Cloud cover will diminish briefly this afternoon but increase again heading into the evening in warm advection ahead of approaching low pressure. Low pressure will deepen over the Midwest as the longwave pattern amplifies and becomes more meridional with rain slowly overspreading the region overnight. Overall model consensus still indicates areas north and west of Pittsburgh will be favored through Thursday in an inverted trough for higher rainfall amounts.
This high is anticipated to move to the north and east this afternoon across the coastal Carolinas allowing a southeast winds to increase at 8 to 12 mph with some higher gusts in the mid to upper teens near the coast later this afternoon. With high pressure moving to the northeast this afternoon. Winds veer and increase beginning tonight as a strong cold front begins to approach the waters.
252 PM CDT Fri Jun 9 2017 A ridge aloft will build over the southeastern quadrant of the CONUS through the short term.
however tonight's low temperatures are expected to remain warmer than yesterday's yet but with similar dew point values as last night. As high pressure continues to move slowly east at the surface.
/issued 945 AM CDT Fri Jun 9 2017/ An atypical early summertime, diurnal TSTM complex developed during yesterday evening across the TX Panhandle and then moved SE down the E side of the ridge centered across the High Plains through this Friday morning. /issued 649 AM CDT Fri Jun 9 2017/ High pressure to maintain light winds across area terminals today. These storms are currently moving southeast towards the DFW Metroplex and are associated with a weak upper trough moving southeast across the Plains. It is worth noting that a couple of the higher resolutions models, including the HRRR, indicate some convection could reach portions of East Texas by noon. With little in the way of cloud cover on Saturday, temperatures should be even warmer.
Dry weather and warm temperature will follow with persistent high pressure. Dry, warm, and more humid weather will ensue with the building of broad high pressure this weekend. Any restrictions observed will be fleeting, however, as high pressure quickly builds in thereafter. There is a low, but non-zero chance of llws accompanying the trough passage early Saturday. No widespread restrictions are expected as broad high pressure builds.
640 PM EDT Fri Jun 9 2017 A few upper level disturbances will pivot through the Middle Atlantic states and Carolinas in cyclonic flow aloft through tonight, followed by sub-tropical high pressure that will build across the southeastern U. Weak high pressure was extending/building into central NC, providing mostly clear skies along with warmer temperatures. The longwave trough will move offshore early Sat and yield to (significantly) rising heights aloft (about 100 meters from 12Z Sat to 12Z Sun), as subtropical high pressure strengthens and becomes situated over the Carolinas.
343 PM CDT Fri Jun 9 2017 Saturday continues to look hot and windy, but a scattered clouds are expected to develop along the cold front as it passes through the region and this will limit the heating potential which could keep temperatures from breaking the record. One exception of note was some cumulus development across southwest Minnesota which coincided with a weak boundary that was only evident via a wind shift and pressure trough.
228 PM CDT Fri Jun 9 2017 Latest water vapor imagery shows an upper low just off the NE coast, with the axis of the trough extending southwestward into the lower MS Valley. Meanwhile, an upper ridge was building just east of the Rockies, as a potent up low moving eastward towards the NW coast. At the surface, high pressure persists over much of the eastern CONUS, keeping dry conditions across the area. This has resulted in a rather pleasant day across the TN valley, with mostly clear to partly cloudy skies and temperatures in the lower 80s. There may be some patchy fog in the lower lying areas, however not anticipating very much given the dry conditions. The upper trough will shift to the northeast, as the subtropical ridge builds northward and into the area.
341 PM CDT Fri Jun 9 2017 Upper level ridging will remain over the area tonight, then looks to get dampened some on Saturday as southwest flow sets up ahead of a trough extending from Hudson Bay to the Pacific Northwest. High temperatures on Saturday will range from the lower 80s northwest to the lower 90s east.
Dry weather and warm temperature will follow with persistent high pressure. This has resulted in much of the limited convective activity that has developed along a short wave trough moving southeastward from the southern Great Lakes into our region generating scarcely more than virga to this point. Fries Dry, warm, and more humid weather will ensue with the building of broad high pressure this weekend. Any restrictions observed will be fleeting, however, as high pressure quickly builds in thereafter. There is a low, but non-zero chance of llws accompanying the trough passage early Saturday. No widespread restrictions are expected as broad high pressure builds.
112 PM MDT Fri Jun 9 2017 Water vapor imagery early this morning showing upper ridge axis right overhead. Off the PACNW coast, a pretty strong low pressure system is slowly moving southeast to wards the Oregon and northern California coast.
1254 PM CDT Fri Jun 9 2017 We will be under the influence of a mid and upper level ridge today.
456 PM MDT Fri Jun 9 2017 Hot and dry conditions will be continuing across the forecast area through this weekend as we see southwest gradients winds gradually increase ahead of low pressure system moving across the Pacific Northwest.
Upper level dynamics are expected to much weaker today as a ridge starts to build over the panhandles. The positively tilted upper ridge moves across the panhandles this afternoon into tonight and then it slowly translates off to our southeast by Saturday afternoon as a large upper level trough moves into the Pacific Northwest. Temperatures are expected to soar into the 95 to 105 degree range across the area for the weekend as lowering heights over the Rockies encourages a lee-side trough to strengthen which will give the region downsloping winds.
146 PM MDT Fri Jun 9 2017 Latest upper air analysis shows the ridge axis over the High Plains. The dry air rounding the ridge has lead to a clear sky across a large portion of the Plains, expect for afternoon cumulus developing downstream of the ridge axis. Behind the trough winds will turn to the north then back to the south through the afternoon. Further north a weak cold front will move south. The cooler air should remain north of the forecast area. With a 850mb ridge overhead, winds will be light. By Saturday night, the upper ridge dominating the pattern begins to progress east as a low moves onto the west coast. Southwest flow develops aloft over the High Plains as the low digs into the Pacific Northwest.
Increasing moisture associated with a warm front which will begin to lift north later tonight will support thickening and lower cigs late tonight into Saturday with prevailing MVFR cigs a good bet after 08Z along with VCSH/VCTS. As for the rest of the day expect daytime heating and instability to combine with the available low level moisture to support scattered showers and isolated thunderstorm development as we move into the afternoon time frame, with best coverage of convection and the highest rain chances (Pops 40 to 50 percent) setting up over southern interior zones along the sea breeze circulations, with slightly lower rain chances (Pops 20 to 30 percent) further to the north and west.
/issued 957 AM CDT Fri Jun 9 2017/ At 10 AM CDT around the Mid-South tranquil conditions continue around the region, with temperatures in the low to mid 70s under sunny skies. No updates or changes to the forecast are necessary, with temperatures expected to climb into the low to mid 80s today. A trough over the northeast CONUS will gradually shift eastward over the Canadian Maritimes by this evening with a weaker wave moving east across the Mid-Atlantic States tomorrow. To the west, a longwave trough will move slowly east into the Pacific Northwest over the next few days, damping the ridge over the central CONUS. With strong insolation and warm surface temperatures, dewpoints are expected to mix down into the lower 50s this afternoon, with some locations potentially dipping into the upper 40s again.
Little in the way of rain is expected with the low due to location of trough axis and limited moisture. Much of the CWA remains on the subsident side of the trough, with moisture remaining confined to the lower levels (generally below 850 mb)with much of the mid and upper levels remaining dry in north to northwest flow. Otherwise, hot conditions expected to persist with highs ranging from the lower 90s east to around the century mark out west and overnight lows in the lower to mid 70s area wide.
Clear skies and nearly calm winds prevailed early this morning across the lower Ohio Valley. A surface analysis showed high pressure centered over the TN Valley while aloft, water vapor imagery and 500 mb heights had a closed low across central PA. Temperatures locally were in the low to mid 50s. For Saturday, a bit more of a southerly flow component and a building upper level ridge will allow temperatures to warm another 3- 5 degrees with highs topping out in the mid 80s.
651 PM EDT Fri Jun 9 2017 A large upper-level ridge will build over the region over the next 48 hours.
High temperatures could be a couple degrees warmer than today, especially if no cirrus develops. 700 mb winds are forecast to be around 40 knots, and if this flow affects the higher terrain, then ridges will see 45-50 mph winds.
259 PM MDT Fri Jun 9 2017 An upper level ridge has been shifting eastward over the area today, with some high clouds drifting eastward. Tonight and Saturday, an upper level disturbance will move from the northern Rockies into the northern plains states and southern Canada, while an upper low moves to just off the Pacific Northwest coast. That upper low will then sit just off the west coast thru the day Sat, and will slowly drift southward, bringing slightly stronger west to southwest flow aloft over southern CO.
606 PM EDT Fri Jun 9 2017 Low pressure over Lower Michigan will weaken while tracking toward Lake Ontario tonight. A strong upper level ridge will build over the area this weekend ushering in hot and humid conditions. Strong upper ridge builds over the entire forecast area this weekend ushering in hotter and more humid conditions.
High pressure will continue to control our weather today, providing another dry and mostly sunny afternoon. 12z OHX sounding supports afternoon highs in the lower to middle 80s in areas west of the Cumberland Plateau, and see no reason to fiddle with a max temperature grid that's about as optimum as one can expect. " This is a great day to get outside and enjoy, not one to sit around pulling ones hair out as to whether the high at Nashville will be 82, 83 or 84 degrees. Otherwise, VFR/SKC thru 10/12Z per ridging influences sfc/aloft.
The low level convergence will remain along this axis this morning and then gradually translate inland this afternoon.