Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
The models were in good agreement in pushing a cold front across the area on Sunday which will usher in breezy conditions. Based on frontal timing, temperatures will reach the lower to mid 60s.
High pressure will remain in control of the region through Election Day.
An upper ridge builds over Central Alabama with 500mb heights at 585dam or better.
Well established, highly anomalous ridge has set anchor over the bulk of North America. As the ridge aloft continues to build, advective forcing in the lower troposphere weakens Sunday and the thermal profile looks very similar to today.
SPC mesoanalysis shows the ridge axis positioned over the Central U. Average highs for November 5th range from the lower 50s across the northern forecast area, mid 50s around the Quad Cities, to near 60 F south of Burlington. Overnight lows are forecast in the lower to middle 40s for most locations. The low to mid-level ridge axis shifts slightly eastward.
A fairly flat ridge currently moving ovhd, will shift east as a short wave approaches the CWA tonight. The highest pops will be across the eastern areas due to better forcing.
VFR/SKC conditions are expected thru 06/18Z per dominance of high pressure influences sfc/aloft.
This will result in even warmer 925 hpa temps than yesterday.
607 PM EDT Sat Nov 5 2016 A weak trough of low pressure moving across the area is causing some light rain and snow showers for eastern Aroostook to central Penobscot.
Tonight and Sunday The latest RAP analysis and satellite/radar imagery show a massive high pressure system centered over the Ohio Valley. High pressure through the column will remain across the region tonight and Sunday. The airmass within this high remains very dry, so looking at mostly clear and calm conditions over the period.
Temperatures reached record or near record levels this afternoon, with the high temperature reaching 70 at the Duluth airport so far. High pressure should continue to bring clear skies to the region overnight and into Sunday. Overnight lows will range from the upper 30s to the lower 40s for the most part. Sunday is shaping up to be another day of record or near record warmth, with highs once again from 65 to 70 or even a bit warmer in spots.
112 PM EDT Sat Nov 5 2016 Canadian high pressure will settle into the region for much of the upcoming week. Expansive continental high pressure is hauling in tons of dry air of higher latitude origin in N-NW flow aloft over the area this morning. Chief caption this period reads 'Seasonably Cool and Dry' as slowly modifying Canadian high pressure and dry N- NW flow aloft prevail across the region.
Overview: Highly amplified ridging/unseasonable warmth persists through much of the CONUS bounded by deep troughing in the eastern Pacific/Gulf of Alaska region as well as far eastern Canada into New england. At the surface, large expanse of high pressure sits across the Ohio Valley/lower lakes region and remain in place through the weekend. Today and tonight: High pressure/deep layer dry air remains in place across the Ohio Valley/Midwest and Great Lakes region leading to quiet weather, while warmer air continues to inch into the state.
This includes some potential for patchy fog again tonight with high pressure centered nearby to the southeast. Dew points are 3 to 5 degrees higher than 24 hours ago, although temperatures are similarly warmer. So once again Rockford and other northern locations should actually see the highest maximum temperatures around 70.
Still may be a few upper 30s tonight in that area given the proximity of the ridge axis, but most locations should bottom out in the low 40s. High pressure will remain centered over the eastern Ohio River valley to northeastern U.
258 PM EDT Sat Nov 5 2016 Canadian high pressure will settle into the region for much of the upcoming week.
129 PM MDT Sat Nov 5 2016 The Winter Weather Advisory will continue until 06z this evening as the main not-so-cold pocket of the trough travels over the San Juan mountains. The main trough aloft also travels over the San Juans and western CO this evening. Also increased areal coverage over the central mountains and central valleys late this afternoon and early evening as the main area of uplift north of the low center rotates overhead. By Sunday morning the main trough will be east of the area with orographic showers shifting to NW facing slopes. These should decrease throughout the day as the trough moves off to the NW.
Forecast challenges are on the low side for today and tonight.
High pressure at the surface and ridging aloft will keep the region dry through most of the short term period.
with the veer of the mid-level flow ahead of the slow moving trough to the west. Further west, closer to the approaching mid to upper closed low, showers and thunderstorms continue to develop within fairly stout mid level WAA regime over west TX.
High pressure and clear skies will remain through the short term. and the higher elevations of east TN Sunday morning. the medium range models are coming closer in agreement with a break down of the upper ridge over the Tennessee Valley and southern Appalachians through the extended.
158 PM CDT Sat Nov 5 2016 Upper low over AZ this morning.
Meanwhile current water vapor satellite imagery shows a upper level low pressure system spinning over Arizona.
1210 PM CDT Sat Nov 5 2016 See little to change in forecast this morning as high pressure continues to dominate the region today. Hydrolapse plots show increasing moisture with height in the lowest layer of the air mass, which is one primary indicator of fog formation. Lows tonight should bottom out in the lower 40s, based on expected lowest afternoon dewpoints.
/issued 1031 AM CDT Sat Nov 5 2016/ East to northeast winds prevailing as high pressure continues to build across the region. Otherwise, current forecast is on track with high temperatures forecast to climb into the low to mid 70s today.
Upper ridge over the Northern Plains bringing sunshine and temperatures about 20 degrees above normal. Weak upper low over the four-corners states is helping to push some high clouds across the eastern zones tonight. A large upper trough centered off the West coast will be the next weather maker for the area.
Like the past couple of nights, there is a concern that the model consensus and mos data are too warm for the low temperatures tonight. Since the guidance looks too warm, took a 50-50 blend of the low temperatures this morning and the model consensus to come up with the forecast low temperatures tonight. On Sunday, it continues to look like our 925 mb temperatures will be 1 to 2C cooler, but with more wind across the region we will will actually mix deeper (maybe as high as 900 mb).
A highly amplified upper level ridge across the region will shift slightly east over the next 24 hours, while an upper trough exits the rockies tonight and moves over the western high plains on Sunday.
355 PM EDT Sat Nov 5 2016 A weak trough of low pressure moving across the area is causing some light rain and snow showers for eastern Aroostook to central Penobscot.
A few light showers have developed this afternoon over NE Arizona, near the core of the upper low currently moving to the northeast into Colorado. The weather over the next 7 days will largely be dominated by a strong ridge developing over the Western US.
1231 PM CDT Sat Nov 5 2016 Early morning surface analysis indicated a ridge axis from the Ohio Valley into the southern Plains. With the slow approach of the closed mid-level circulation over the 4-corners region, some deepening of the lee trough was noted. Models remain consistent though in good mixing to around 925 mb, and this again should produce highs in the lower to mid 70s, with the warmest temperatures over northeast Nebraska where there will be less effects from the high clouds. As the low- level flow becomes more southeast on Sunday, and clouds continue to thicken, the boundary layer mixing will not be as deep reducing highs from today.
This warmer solution would also be closer to persistence as little as changed since yesterday.
656 PM EDT Sat Nov 5 2016 High pressure remains in control tonight based off the latest surface analysis and trends. High pressure will continue to hold over the area through Sunday night, perhaps drifting just off to our east. Regardless, subsidence will continue under this high pressure ridge and set up another cool night with lows dipping into the lower to middle 30s. High temps in the lower 40s expected on the ridges. Highs tomorrow should be milder by a few degrees, but should be close to the highs we saw today. By Sunday night with the ridge edging east, lows may be a bit higher, but still expecting some readings into the 30s with more fog and frost possible.
Sunny and relatively warm conditions continue this afternoon under high pressure. The low pressure system and associated cold front will move through the region during the day tomorrow. Wind and precipitation will quickly diminish Sunday evening as high pressure builds back over western Montana and central Idaho. The rest of the work week will be dominated by this large scale area of high pressure, though weak waves through the ridge may periodically increase cloud cover.
Temperatures have found their way to the low and mid 60s across the area and may only warm another couple degrees this afternoon as we only mix to around 925 mb. Expect highs a few degrees warmer on Sunday as 1000-925 mb temps warm a bit.
Dry NW flow aloft to continue with upper ridging building from the W Gulf into the Lower Mississippi River Valley this evening. The upper ridge is expected to move eastward Sunday and be positioned in the E Gulf by late Sunday with cirrus cloud shield streaming over the region. Near normal temps this afternoon feel pleasant with dewpoints in the lower to mid 50s N into central areas and around 60 southern zones. Temperatures are expected to range from around average with daytime highs in the low 80s and overnight lows in the 60s for most of central and southwest Florida and mid to upper 50s up north along the Nature Coast.
weak ridging will build into North Texas. Although the upper disturbance responsible for the activity will continue moving north this morning, it will begin competing with dry advection from the east in the low levels. The mastermind behind these rainmakers, an upper low currently over the Four Corners, will transition into a broad trough as it begins creeping eastward.
243 PM MDT Sat Nov 5 2016 An upper low located near the Four Corners region this aftn is progged to move slowly east/northeast through Sunday. For tonight the flow aloft will continue to be southerly, then the flow aloft will weaken and become west/northwesterly on Sunday as the trough moves eastward. Weak mid level qg ascent coupled with some aftn instability has allowed for sct to nmrs rain and snow showers in the high country today, especially south of interstate 70. On Sunday, weak qg ascent will continue ahead of the upper trough axis with increasing mid level subsidence fm west to east.
This is all associated with an upper level low pressure centered almost right over the Four Corners moving very slowly now to the east- northeast. Rain across the Panhandles should become more widespread as we go into the evening hours into the day on Sunday as the main upper level low pressure to our west becomes an open wave and moves east closer to our region. As we go into Sunday evening, POPs will begin to diminish across the western Panhandles as the axis of the main upper level trough moves through the western zones.
633 PM EDT Sat Nov 5 2016 A broad upper trough will be over the Northeast tonight and Sunday producing cool temperatures and scattered snow showers in the mountains with maybe an isolated shower or flurry elsewhere. By Sunday night the trough exits to the east allowing high pressure to build east.
Water vapor loop indicated an upper level ridge was over the area. Upper level ridge will build over the area today and shift east of the area tonight. Upper level trough over the four corners area and an upper trough over the eastern Pacific will move into the Northern Plains late Sun and into Mon.
306 PM CDT Sat Nov 5 2016 High pressure across the Ohio River Valley continues to maintain north to northeast winds across the region. However, could see slightly warmer overnight low temperatures across portions of deep East Texas due to persistent cloud cover.
Further west, closer to the approaching mid to upper closed low, showers and thunderstorms continue to develop within fairly stout mid level WAA regime over west TX.
245 PM EDT Sat Nov 5 2016 A broad upper trough will be over the Northeast tonight and Sunday producing cool temperatures and scattered snow showers in the mountains with maybe an isolated shower or flurry elsewhere. By Sunday night the trough exits to the east allowing high pressure to build east.
659 PM EDT Sat Nov 5 2016 High pressure will maintain generally clear skies and light winds throughout much of the forecast. Well established, highly anomalous ridge has set anchor over the bulk of North America. As the ridge aloft continues to build, advective forcing in the lower troposphere weakens Sunday and the thermal profile looks very similar to today.
248 PM CDT Sat Nov 5 2016 (Tonight and Sunday) An upper trough associated with an upper low now over the Four Corners Area will continue to move eastward with the upper trough axis over the Texas/NM border by tomorrow afternoon. Abundant moisture ahead of the upper trough will fuel convective activity that is expected to move into the western and central sections of the forecast area by sunrise tomorrow.
Early this morning high pressure was centered over southern Illinois. The main axis of this ridge had slide east of the area leading to south and southwest winds across the area. Today, warmer H85 temps should advect into the area leading to temperatures in the upper 60s to low 70s across the area.
326 PM CDT Sat Nov 5 2016 An upper level closed low at 500 mb currently over the four corners region will weaken and lift northward over the next 24 to 30 hours.
The strongest push of warm advection will be earlier in the day, ahead of a trough axis progged to approach western parts of the forecast area late in the day. Decent moisture advection ahead of this trough will quickly bring clouds back to the area and spread from west to east by evening.
Cigs will then lower during the late evening and overnight hours as the low-levels cool. An upper level trough over Texas will pull away taking the showers and thunderstorms currently over Central Texas with it by midday. An upper level low currently near the Four Corners region opens up and moves across the Southern Rockies tonight into the High Plains Sunday.
The s/w will send a cold front across the area as well, although this will occur beyond the current TAF cycle.
Today will be a wet day for much of the forecast area, as strong low pressure off the British Columbia coast drags a slow-moving and very moist cold front across SW Washington and NW Oregon. An upper level trough will finally shove the front east of the Cascades tonight, with rain tapering to showers.
Overnight expect VFR with light NE-E winds then toward morning the low level flow veers and moisture should begin to increase.
The high pressure ridge will drift toward southern WI a little more tonight, which means lighter winds just off the surface, which supports a stronger surface inversion and fog development.
Low to mid level high pressure will slide toward the southeast today, pushing a much drier, cooler airmass into the area. With a tight pressure gradient in place between the exiting low pressure system and incoming ridge of high pressure, winds will be gusty today and generally from the northeast.
443 PM EDT Sat Nov 5 2016 This afternoon and evening: A decaying cold front is moving through the area as of 4:30 pm. As the ridge strengthens to the north of the area late Sunday into Sunday night, winds will gradually increase out of the east-northeast.
1156 AM MDT Sat Nov 5 2016 Some high clouds over parts of the CWA ahead of an upper low currently moving north along the Az/NM border. The low will drift slowly north to the 4 corners area today and continue to spread mainly mid and high clouds across much of the CWA.
There currently is a rain producing cold front extending from the Washington coast southwestward to a few hundred miles off the northern California coast. Otherwise, the only impact this cold front will have on the central California interior will be a slight increase in onshore flow this weekend. From a broader perspective, this front will flatten the upper level ridge of high pressure that lately has brought balmy afternoon temperatures to the CWA.
257 PM CDT Sat Nov 5 2016 A large upper low was evident in water vapor imagery over the four- corners region Saturday morning while a well-defined lead short wave trough was kicking northeast over the Oklahoma panhandle and another in eastern New Mexico. One area of lower clouds will build into central KS tonight into Sunday, and will probably lead to slightly warmer overnight lows and slightly cooler daytime highs in north central KS during that time frame. Otherwise, high cloud cover and a bit of a breeze overnight should keep things a bit warmer in the east tonight as well, with Sunday highs similar to today if not a degree or two cooler owing to the increased high cloud cover. There will be plenty of mid level moisture, while the lower levels may take some time to saturate.
222 PM CDT Sat Nov 5 2016 High pressure at the surface and aloft will move only slowly east from the MS River Valley to the East Coast during the short term period.
Fairly dry in the low levels though with surface dew points in the low to mid 40s. Temperatures have climbed into the low 60s east to low 70s west.
In the upper levels, flow across the CWA is generally southwesterly, with a ridge axis extending from the Gulf Coast region into central Canada, while low pressure spins over the 4 corners region. At the surface, high pressure over the midwest and troughing through the High Plains is bringing south-southwesterly winds to the area, which have been gusting 20-25 MPH at times.
Models remain adamant with considerable warming in the lower layers of the atmosphere. Western IA topped out in the lower 70s Fri, and should see that air move across us for today.
159 PM MDT Sat Nov 5 2016 Water vapor shows upper ridge over the nrn plains with cut off low over the four corners. broad trof covers the nrn Rockies/nrn plains. An upper trof will track along the US/Cndn border late Sunday and push a cool front into the cwfa. This upper trof will also pick up the cut off low currently over the four corners and eject it through the cntrl plains Sunday night.
A few storms still expected between the ContDvd and RGV later today as the upper low shifts east and the atmosphere becomes more unstable. A slow moving upper low near the Four Corners will continue to bring showers and thunderstorms to much of the area today.
329 PM CDT Sat Nov 5 2016 Latest upper air analysis and water vapor imagery show the weak ridge over the area this morning have moved well east of our area this afternoon. A closed upper low remained centered over the four corners area with a deep trough off the eastern seaboard. This was allowing for light northeasterly winds and ushering a drier airmass to into the region with dewpoints in the middle 40s to the lower 50s along the coast. temperatures were in the lower 80s. Overnight lows tonight will be a little cooler than the past few nights but still above normal values, with temperatures falling into the middle 50s across central Louisiana to the lower/middle 60s along and south of I-10.
and approaching upper low from the desert SW. The main weather focus for tonight on into Sunday will focus on the upper low over the desert SW and its forecasted movement into the Central Plains region. to the low 50s going east. There will be a slight shift eastward of these two systems as the upper low lifts NE. Extensive cloud cover will only allow for daytime highs to top off at the lower to mid 60s.
With light winds and cooler temps, could still see some patchy fog develop towards daybreak, mainly in the river valleys.
240 PM EDT Sat Nov 5 2016 Models continue to show dry conditions through the short term and beyond as the area remains under high pressure influence. thin high clouds will try to spill over the upper ridge anchored over the deep south as a large low pressure system deepens over the southwest. mainly in the low to mid 40s. then maybe a couple degrees warmer Sunday night as the air mass modifies. Highs on Sunday will warm into the lower to mid 70s for most areas under ample sunshine.
330 PM EDT Sat Nov 5 2016 High pressure will continue to hold over the area through Sunday night, perhaps drifting just off to our east. Regardless, subsidence will continue under this high pressure ridge and set up another cool night with lows dipping into the lower to middle 30s. High temps in the lower 40s expected on the ridges. Highs tomorrow should be milder by a few degrees, but should be close to the highs we saw today. By Sunday night with the ridge edging east, lows may be a bit higher, but still expecting some readings into the 30s with more fog and frost possible.
In the middle and upper levels (700-200 mb,latest available satelitte imagery overlaid with model streamline analysis) as of 200 pm depicts the main axis of low amplitude middle and upper ridging is located from the Upper Midwest States down to the Yucatan Peninsula. Downstream of that, the axis of a full latitudinal trough is located from the Northern Quebec down to just north of Central Cuba. with latest vapor imagery delineating the driest air encompassing the Florida Peninsula and the Keys attm at he left base of this trough. Closer to the Florida Keys, a surface cold frontal boundary stretches across South Florida. Temperatures have reached the lower 80s with dewpoints around 70 degrees.
311 PM CDT Sat Nov 5 2016 Fair weather will continue through Sunday as the upper level ridge moves slowly east.
Surface ridging conditions along with low dewpoints should allow temperatures to be a little cooler than what was seen last night. Water vapor imagery depicts closed low across the 4-corners region.
216 PM CDT Sat Nov 5 2016 A persistent ridge over the Central CONUS will slowly progress eastward through the latter half of the weekend. This will maintain dry conditions and warmer than normal temperatures both today and Sunday. Saturday highs will reach the lower 70s with Sunday highs dropping to the mid to upper 60s.
541 PM CDT Sat Nov 5 2016 High pressure at the surface and aloft will move only slowly east from the MS River Valley to the East Coast during the short term period.
1206 PM CDT Sat Nov 5 2016 A warm and quiet weather pattern looks to continue for some time across the region, with ridging aloft and high pressure at the surface remaining in control.
Mins in the west look to stay in the lower 50s, while mid 40s look attainable in the far east.
1154 AM MDT Sat Nov 5 2016 The area of low pressure is now just about over the four corners region as rain continues to be reported for Durango and Pagosa Springs. Also, temperatures above 10K feet remain below freezing so no reason to make any changes to current advisory. For the rest of today then, the low will slowly move eastward and as it does so, open up and become an open wave. Rain and snow will continue down south though any snow on roadways should melt quickly after falling, this for the higher mountain passes.
The Upper Low is now currently moving into the 4 Corners Region this morning, and will continue to drift slowly to the north and East today. Highlight for the San Juans looks on track, although snow levels will be quite high today, so additional accums through this afternoon will likely be on the higher peaks.