Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
The cold front that entered the CWA last night is slowly progressing toward the southern CO/UT border where it will become diffuse overnight. The surface boundary stalled in the south will lift as a pseudo-warm front by early tomorrow afternoon. The cold front approaching the Wasatch by mid afternoon will also help tighten gradients and focus the strongest warming over the 4 corners region. The cold front will quickly plow southeast across the CWA late tomorrow afternoon through the late evening hours. Impacts to travel at the high elevations overnight look very probable at this time but getting critical snow accumulation levels are still somewhat problematic with the warm temperatures.
With deep layer ridging in place, expect mild conditions tonight with light upper level cloud cover and light winds. Lows will be in the low to mid 60s.
The low level stratus should mix out by mid morning and give way to VFR conditions with SCT/BKN ceilings and southerly winds around 10 knots through the rest of morning.
825 PM EDT Wed Apr 19 2017 A series of low pressure systems will keep periodic rain chances in the forecast through late week. Overnight lows will be mild with cloud cover and continued WAA ahead of the approaching cold front. A cold front will cross Thursday night but unfavorable overnight FROPA timing and waning instability should help limit potential for severe storms.
Upper level ridging over northern Mexico will also begin to build into the region overnight.
An upper level ridge will begin to build over the area tonight into Thursday. Another warm day is in store with highs in the lower 90s over the Rio Grande to middle 80s over the Victoria Crossroads.
Narrow band of thunderstorms across KS along the associated cold front continues to sag south and southeast this evening.
but likely a bit cooler if your underneath a good downpour.
A back door cold front will dive into the eastern plains tonight with cooler temperatures across the east on Thursday. The focus for breezy conditions will shift to western areas on Thursday afternoon as an approaching upper level trough causes winds aloft to strengthen.
This low will open up and track NE across the area Thursday. An upper trough will move over the NW Coast Thursday and displace the ridge eastward to the plains.
/28/ Today and tonight: High pressure will continue to slide into the region from the northwest today. Overnight lows will drop to the lower 30s.
Upper level ridge begins building over the high Plains today into tonight.
Thursday will be cooler with more clouds, and a return of strong onshore flow, with gusty westerly winds over the mountains and deserts.
However, increasing clouds are expected this afternoon ahead of an upper level trough moving eastward toward our area.
358 AM MST Wed Jan 24 2018 Upper level ridge centered over the Great Basin will move east across the Central Rockies today. It will be warmer above the inversion in the foothills and from Denver south with highs in the upper 40s to 50s. A lee side trough will deepen tonight and should produce gusty downslope winds to 40 mph. For the rest of northeast Colorado, lows will be warmer tonight due to a warmer airmass. Large upper ridge will be centered over the western Great Plains by Thursday morning which places the forecast area under a warming southwesterly flow aloft. Nevertheless, it looks quite windy on the higher slopes and canyons for several hours. These same cross sections do not show much of this high altitude momentum mix down to the base of the foothills.
A cold front will approach northwest Nevada Wednesday evening and cross the state Thursday, bringing more light snow showers with its passage.
635 AM CST Wed Jan 24 2018 Water vapor imagery this morning was showing an amplified ridge over the Rockies stretching into western Canada with hefty moisture riding up and over into the northern Plains.
This will bring cooler and drier conditions to the local area with a generally light northwesterly flow becoming more northeasterly through the period. Cooler tonight with the ridge axis centered over the area, with lows ranging from the low to mid 30s over inland areas to the upper 30s and lower 40s down near and along the coast.
High pressure is expected for tonight and Thursday.
A Pacific cold front will then move across the state on Thursday.
Surface and upper ridge to prevail the providing dry conditions for most of the rest of this week. The light winds and mostly clear skies will return the overnight lows to near freezing.
But also have higher level clouds ready to move over the low level cloud area and this may help supress dense fog formation once that occurs. Ridging aloft ahead of an approaching trough from the west will allow for warm temperatures to filter into the region along with return flow from the south/southeast.
Overall the impacts will be minimal from these snow showers, as temperatures are just beginning to hit the freezing mark for most and antecedent warm ground temperatures will inhibit accumulations. Consequently, the surface temperatures will remain in the 30s for the day given the advection of cooler 850mb temperatures throughout the day and low level cloud cover. Otherwise, high pressure will build east tonight as heights begin to rise. The temperatures could be tricky if we see more clearing tonight and perhaps a larger ridge/valley split could develop. A slowly amplifying trough then moves in from the west, accompanied by a surface cold front during the weekend.
Southerly winds developing toward Thursday morning will show a minimal impact on overnight dewpoints, leading to a warming trend on min temps that will be only a degree or three over the lows of this morning.
310 AM MST Wed Jan 24 2018 Just completed to make some adjustments to the low temperatures. Looks like temperatures will be a little warmer than expected in the eastern portion of the area. Upper ridge axis will move across the central plains through Thursday, so no precipitation expected. Temperatures will attempt to warm up both Wednesday and Thursday under the ridge and with a westerly surface wind, but snow cover should hamper full potential and trended a little cooler both days except along the southern and eastern edges where snow was less and is already melting.
Southwest flow aloft will precede an offshore trough situated off the west coast. Most areas will remain dry today, except for light precipitation is expected in portions of southeast Oregon - located near the leading edge of the trough. The trough will push inland and send a cold front through our area tonight. Instability associated with a weak trough will support isolated to scattered snow showers in the afternoon, with additional light accumulations possible in the northern mountains. Temperatures will be cooler, with highs near to slightly above normal.
/Issued 318 AM EST Wed Jan 24 2018/ High pressure will build overhead today and Thursday. Warmer values are anticipated for Thursday with MaxT's around 5 degrees below normal for this time of year.
A large area of stratus remained trapped under the inversion aloft, just east of the ridge and encompassed much of central Iowa and western Minnesota/eastern Dakotas.
Currently, northwest flow aloft over the Northern Plains ahead of upper level ridging across the Rockies. Upper level ridge axis moves over the Northern High Plains spreading WAA into the western and central Dakotas. Highs in the lower 40s southwest possible with 30s elsewhere west and central. The warmer air does not quite reach my northeast, and coupled with the potential for lingering low clouds daytime highs won't rise much from current temperatures early this morning around 20F across the Turtle Mountains region. Ridge continues to build eastward tonight with milder air spreading across the entire region. As stated above, well above normal highs for Thursday with temperatures ranging from the lower/mid 40s southwest and 30s elsewhere.
Temperatures are noticeably cooler this morning behind yesterday's frontal passage. really dries out and weak ridging settles into the area.
Broad trofiness over the Great Lakes has kept a pretty solid cloud shield in the Ohio Valley overnight, with patchy light drizzle and flurries. With temps near freezing and a few snow showers around, there remains the potential for a few slick spots due to light ice glaze or a dusting of snow, but so far impacts have been minimal. Plenty of cloud cover and continued cold advection will limit temp recovery, and we are toward the cooler end of guidance with max temps in the mid/upper 30s.
Thus, we anticipate most areas to clear out in the low levels today, though there is some thin high clouds west river. With the favorable low level flow (albeit becoming more southerly) will go with higher end guidance for high temperatures today, as mixed temperatures to 900mb yield highs in the low to mid 40s. Went with the higher end of guidance for Thursday as well, though there continues to be some high cloud potential evident within the GFS 300mb RH, which is also noted in BUFKIT profiles.
935 AM EST Wed Jan 24 2018 Cold front has pushed into south FL. Cold front south of Jupiter Inlet will drift into the FL Straits/nrn Bahamas today as high pres centered over the srn plains maintains a gentle to moderate nrly breeze.
A mostly clear night will be on tap for tonight as cooler air filters into the region overnight. Most areas will drop below the freezing mark by Thursday morning, generally bottoming out in the mid to upper 20s. High pressure will build into the region at the surface and aloft during the middle to end of the work week, promoting dry conditions and a gradual warming trend.
646 AM EST Wed Jan 24 2018 Patchy freezing drizzle and snow showers will create slick spots on the roads this morning.
/issued 257 AM CST Wed Jan 24 2018/ An upper level trough over over southern New Mexico will close off today before it moves across the South Plains on Thursday. Surface lee troughing will develop today leading to breezy southwest winds this afternoon and Thursday.
A round of more organized showers is possible Thursday afternoon as the upper low moves inland.
308 AM MST Wed Jan 24 2018 Current surface analysis shows low pressure over southeast Alberta, with frontal boundary stretching southeastward across MT and into eastern WY. Upper level analysis shows ridge axis over the Rockies, with fast northwest flow in place over the Northern Plains. Quiet weather to continue over the next couple of days as ridge slowly shifts east across the Rockies and Plains.
Weak warm air advection will allow temperatures this afternoon to reach the middle 40s to lower 50s, with slightly cooler readings in the stratus zone. Lows tonight will be several degrees warmer thanks in part to southerly winds and continued moisture transport. An upper level ridge shifts into the Central Plains on Thursday with a lee trough evolving over the High Plains.
331 AM MST Wed Jan 24 2018 Upper ridging over the western U. By Thursday, the ridge will slide downstream of the forecast area while a trough digging into the Pacific Northwest amplifies across the western U.
519 AM CST Wed Jan 24 2018 Water vapor imagery this morning was showing an amplified ridge over the Rockies stretching into wrn Canada with hefty moisture riding up and over into the nrn Plains.
High pressure will continue to settle over the Midsouth today, resulting in abundant sunshine and high temperatures peaking in the upper 40s to lower 50s.
/issued 402 AM CST Wed Jan 24 2018/ Benign weather expected the next couple of days as SFC to mid level ridging traverses the Gulf coast states underneath westerly flow aloft. Changes will begin late THU with the onset of a more onshore flow and resulting increase in MSTR, with the initial effects coming in the way of increasing cloud cover and warmer overnight temperatures THU night into FRI morning. FRI night on into SAT becomes a bit more interesting and uncertain, with global models depicting the development of a SFC wave/low over the northern Gulf ahead of an approaching upper trof and associated CDFNT.
Deep low pressure continues to exit eastward away from Michigan early this morning. as surface ridging begins to build into the Western Great Lakes region. Over-lake instability combined with lingering shallow low level moisture and weak troughing in the wake of the departing low continue to produce some light lake effect snow shower activity across portions of our CWA impacted by NW low level flow. Low level flow begins to shift to a more straight north trajectory after 12Z this morning and then becomes variable this afternoon as surface ridging moves overhead. High temps this afternoon will range from the teens in eastern Upper Michigan and the tip of the Mitt to the low to mid 20s across the southern half of our CWA.
However, it had little impact on the overall precip water value as the lower and mid levels are still extremely dry.
Region will be under NW flow aloft with ridge axis approaching the region. Temps today on the plains will be about 10F warmer than yesterday, while mtn temps will rise about 5F. Min temps should be noticeably warmer as compared to this mornings low temps.
336 AM MST Wed Jan 24 2018 A weak ridge of high pressure will continue to move over the area today with the axis of said high moving overhead right around the noon timeframe. Upper level winds will become more southwesterly on the back side of the ridge allowing warmer air to move into the region. However, the warm air will ride up and over the inversions keeping high temperatures a bit cooler than model guidance.
High pressure will expand over the region today as the center slides from the Four Corners, south and east toward the area tonight. Look for the high pressure to be centered over the area by sunrise on Thursday, so the coldest night across the area will likely be tonight as we see plenty of radiational cooling and calmer winds. Temperatures will generally be in the upper 20s to low 30s, with most locations at or below freezing. Cooler spots in the NE will be in the low to mid 20s.
636 AM MST Wed Jan 24 2018 Updated to add initials to the bottom A weak ridge of high pressure will continue to move over the area today with the axis of said high moving overhead right around the noon timeframe. Upper level winds will become more southwesterly on the back side of the ridge allowing warmer air to move into the region. However, the warm air will ride up and over the inversions keeping high temperatures a bit cooler than model guidance.
High pressure overhead will result in mostly light and variable winds this morning though winds may have more of a westerly component initially. Southerly winds will return this afternoon and continue through Thursday morning as high pressures settles to the east of the area. Winds will be light and variable across most locales through at least noon as high pressure slides towards East TX. Most areas tonight should see warmer conditions as southerly winds and a slight increase in low level moisture occur. It'll remain chilly, however, with most areas seeing low temperatures near or just above "freezing.
430 AM CST Wed Jan 24 2018 Today and tonight: High pressure will continue to slide into the region from the northwest today. Overnight lows will drop to the lower 30s.
06z surface data has a frontal boundary running from northern Ohio back into Minnesota while high pressure was across the southern Plains. Quiet and dry conditions will be seen across the area tonight as high pressure moves into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys.
Locally, a cooler and much drier airmass will filter in on light northwest flow in the wake of yesterday's cold front.
This pattern would seem to suggest that the upper trof out west (near the California Baja) has begun to develop/move east. but another disturb- ance moving into the area (from the lower TX coast) late Fri night will likely be the main impetus for precipitation. Models still on track for the passage of a cold front late in the day Sat but seem to be backing off a bit with respect to CAA. At any rate, however, the building upper ridge in the wake of the front on Sun will help to clear things out quickly. High pressure over north-central Texas early this morning will be sliding slowly southeastward maintaining the tighter temperature/pressure gradient over the coastal waters. As it moves east tonight and Thursday pressures along the Lower TX coast should begin to fall and winds become more easterly.
944 AM EST Wed Jan 24 2018 Morning water vapor imagery and upper air plots show an area of high pressure extending across south Florida and into the Gulf of Mexico, with weak troughing to the north north and a west to southwest flow in place across the state. At the surface, a cold front is south of the state, with high pressure building over Texas and extending over the region.
Early this morning, a shorter wave length upper trough extended from MN, southward across northern MO and was digging east- southeast, where it will phase and amplify a longer wave length upper trough across the eastern US Today through Tonight. Weak WAA will allow high temperatures to warm into the lower 50s south of I-70 with highs in the mid 40s along the NE border. Tonight, southerly winds will only allow over night lows to drop into the upper 20s to lower 30s across northeast and north central KS with lows in the lower to mid 30s across east central KS. An upper level ridge across the western US will move east and amplify over the plains as the next upper level trough moves into the western US on Thursday.
1003 AM EST Wed Jan 24 2018 Early morning fog has transitioned into some low clouds as the cold front lingers over the southeastern part of the peninsula.
Upper level ridging extends over the Bahamas westward over southern Florida and into the Gulf Mexico. Farther north, troughing extends south from the Great Lakes region, but should not really impact the local area through the week. As the trough moves northeast, the ridging will further build into the area over the next couple of days. On the surface, strong high pressure to the west ridges east keeping dry and sunny conditions over the area through the end of the week.
The ridge will start building across lower MI later this evening leaving a short period of lingering cyclonic flow through the early part of the day. Cold advection will help steepen low level lapse rates today which combined with a weak cold front, and the saturation layer getting into the -12C layer to produce some flurries. Better chances of snow showers will occur just south of the state as a vort max drops through the base of the trough through the Ohio Valley. The thermal trough will hold today and moderate slightly Thursday before drifting east so expect highs today only in the upper 20s to low 30s, and a few degrees higher Thursday.
High temperatures will range from the lower 30s far northeast around Danville. As high pressure shifts toward the East Coast, increasing southerly winds will bring much warmer air into central Illinois for the end of the week.
An upper level trough will cross the Ohio Valley late today, removing the upward lift that is producing any lingering snow. High pressure will then build in the southeastern U.
The area remains downstream of a large ridge over the western CONUS. Highs are expected to range from the low 40s across most of Nebraska to the upper 40s and low 50s across Kansas. Thursday will bring even warmer conditions to the area.
646 AM EST Wed Jan 24 2018 Aviation An area of high pressure over the Mississippi Valley will build east today and through the Great Lakes Region on Thursday.
As high pressure shifts east and south, a dry s-sw return flow will set up tonight with temperatures leveling off over the western cwfa after an evening drop.
Highs this afternoon are expected to be in the lower to mid 60s.
The worst conditions for the higher elevations along the MT/ID border, including Lookout Pass, are occurring at the time of writing this (3AM MST), and will continue to worsen for the next 2 to 3 hours. As for the valleys across northwestern Montana and north-central Idaho (above 3500ft in Idaho), snow will transition to a rain/snow mix, and perhaps see a few pockets of light freezing rain. This is where we expect the higher storm total accumulations through morning. However, the Missoula Valley is currently at or below freezing, and with warming temperatures aloft if any precipitation does overcome the shadowing, a light freezing drizzle is possible between 5am to 7am. Overnight tonight, a second surge of moisture associated with a cold front, will bring snow levels back down to most valleys.
Surface wise, a large high pressure cell (1033 mb) is located over eastern Texas with an extensive ridge axis reaching across the Gulf of Mexico, and down the Sunshine State. Closer to home, a trough of low pressure is aligned over the Straits of Florida with a decaying cold front analyzed over south Florida. With an expansive region of high pressure centered over Texas bridging a disintegrating cold front over south Florida, some low level drier air will filter into our region. In addition, with the frontal boundary to our north dissipating and the aforementioned (1st paragraph) trough remaining just to our east, see no low level forcing to initiate shower activity for the balance of today along the island chain.
Ridging aloft will move out of the Intermountain West into the Western High Plains today while a west-southwesterly downslope flow reinforces a fairly dry air mass across the region. An ongoing warming trend will continue through today as a strengthening lee side trough across eastern Colorado sets up a southwesterly flow across western Kansas. This will draw warmer air into the high plains pushing highs well up into the 50s(F) to near 60F this afternoon. The draw of warmer air will keep lows from dropping below the 20s(F) across much of the area tonight with the lower to mid 30s(F) likely in extreme southwest Kansas. Medium range models indicate upper level ridging moving eastward across the Central Plains Thursday while a southwesterly downslope flow continues to reinforce the dry air mass across the Western High Plains.
859 AM MST Wed Jan 24 2018 High pressure ridging will be over the forecast area today. A ridge of high pressure along with lee-side troughing will dominate the weather for today. Temperatures today should be a little warmer with some downslope flow, with highs in the 40s. The Beartooth/Absaroka Mountains will be in southwesterly flow as the ridge moves east. Elsewhere deterministic models are not showing much in the way of precip for the lower elevations.
719 AM EST Wed Jan 24 2018 Update An area of high pressure over the Mississippi Valley will build east today and through the Great Lakes Region on Thursday.
A sharp moisture gradient exists across the lower portions of the Rio Grande Valley and over the southern coastal waters. Today, scattered showers are possible again mainly in the lower Rio Grande Valley with below-normal temperatures as skies remain mostly cloudy.
A fast moving system will bring cooler temperatures and more widespread breezy to locally windy conditions to much of the region later today and Thursday. High pressure is shifting east in response to a Pacific trough pushing towards the west coast. This trough will bring an increase in wind today across the northwestern portions of the CWA and especially in the Sierra. Breezy to locally windy conditions shift from the southern Great Basin early Thursday to the deserts in the afternoon as a cold front moves south through the region. Temperatures will be slightly above normal today in most areas but could warm nicely in the higher elevations and in the northwestern CWA where increased winds will help bring warmer temperatures. Temperatures will cool a few degrees Thursday as the trough moves through.