Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
411 PM CDT Thu May 4 2017 Northwesterly flow aloft continues as the upper level trough shifts eastward and deepens along the east coast. An upper level ridge continues building over the Rockies into this weekend, ushering deep northwest flow and dry continental air into the region. These offshore winds will decrease over the weekend as the high settles over the coastal waters.
625 PM EDT Thu May 4 2017 Low pressure will maintain rain chances and colder temperatures through the weekend. Coverage in rain will increase overnight as low pressure tracks northeast from Kentucky.
Unfortunately sub-freezing temps appear likely over nern areas in proximity to colder side of low level thermal trough. Thereafter short amplitude ridging aloft spreads ewd into the wrn lakes mid week ahead of next upstream bowling ball ejecting out of the Rockies. Widespread light to moderate rain has overspread the region this afternoon, and this rain will continue into the overnight hours as the low pressure system centered over Tennessee lifts northeastward.
Showers located along a cold front currently over the mid section of the forecast area will be located east of the area by the beginning of the period (or very nearly so) as the cold front continues off to the east, leaving dry conditions prevailing for tonight.
Water vapor imagery and 500 mb height field shows the large ridge of high pressure firmly in control over the majority of the western CONUS with 580dm measurements already reaching as far north as SW Montana. The short term forecast will continue to be dominated by this welcome ridge, giving the area the warmest temperatures we've seen for about 215 days.
This backedge is then expected to move little until this evening when the upper LOW to our south and its associated TROF axis thru our region will finally move to the east and drag the backedge of this pcpn with it. Otherwise, look for gusty winds to continue with temps dropping into the low-mid 40s late tonight. Unseasonably cool conditions will continue with the coolest highs across southeast MO and southwest IL today where the lowest cloud ceilings and most persistent rainfall will keep temperatures from rising much. GKS Rainfall will continue tapering off on Friday as the low pressure system which has been responsible for the rainfall finally moves eastward.
309 PM CDT Thu May 4 2017 Diurnal CU have developed on the backside of the upper low. This will set the stage for what looks like a fabulous weekend across the area as the upper ridge to our west begins to influence the region more and more.
316 PM CDT Thu May 4 2017 At 500mb there is a deep trough over the northeast Pacific Ocean followed by a large ridge over the western CONUS. There is a deep trough extending from Hudson Bay low to a closed low over the Mississippi Valley. Missed the low temperatures over western Nebraska this morning using a blend for the forecast. With warmer temperatures aloft lows will hold in the mid to upper 30s with some low 40s over north central Nebraska. This is about 3F to 5F cooler than the blend.
The high pressure area which has provided our area with unseasonably warm temperatures for the past few days will break down on Friday as a large upper trough approaches the west coast.
140 PM EDT Thu May 4 2017 Slow moving low pressure will maintain rain chances through the weekend.
That upper level trough is pivoting just to the north of the state and advecting some cool air from the northwest at the moment. Tomorrow will be dry and highs will be be much warmer as cloud cover starts to move to the northeast. Overall, quiet weather period is on tap with some cooler conditions during Sat-Sun mornings. However, those cooler conditions will be short lived as the region will see a quick warming trend. Warmth will return as mid/upper level ridging builds and the lower levels warm as return flow develops.
Unseasonably cool conditions will continue with the coolest highs across southeast MO and southwest IL today where the lowest cloud ceilings and most persistent rainfall will keep temperatures from rising much. GKS Rainfall will continue tapering off on Friday as the low pressure system which has been responsible for the rainfall finally moves eastward.
The slow moving area of low pressure was continuing light to moderate rain across the eastern potions of the Missouri Ozarks this morning. This will be the trend as we head through the the day today as the low track slowly to the east it will pull the lingering rain with it. Surface winds will be breezy out of the north to northwest today as the low moves to the east. Upper level ridging will move over the plains and allow for sunny skies, warming temperatures and light winds.
A short wave trough currently rotating around the Gulf of Alaska low will break off this weekend and dive south along the west coast. However, with this low sitting near southern California this weekend, moisture will begin to be replenished.
Poor flight conditions through the period as an area of low pressure swings across the forecast area.
325 PM EDT Thu May 4 2017 Low pressure will maintain rain chances and colder temperatures through the weekend. Although a brief lull in precipitation is expected late this afternoon, coverage in rain will increase overnight as low pressure tracks northeast from Kentucky.
Very chilly air will be over the area this weekend as an upper level trof remains lodged over the eastern North American interior.
213 PM MDT Thu May 4 2017 Large upper ridge will build across the central Rockies and adjacent plains through the short term period, resulting in mostly clear skies, light winds, dry and warm conditions. This is due to a ridge in place over the CWA with a developing closed low pressure system over the desert southwest.
Cold front has pushed across the region this morning with strong north winds in its wake. /issued 557 AM CDT Thu May 4 2017/ SHORT TERM (Today through Friday): Cold front and associated line of thunderstorms have pushed across the CWA this morning bringing moderate to strong northerly winds.
Look for additional cooling into the weekend as an upper level trough affects our region.
A potent upper low continues to push through the Lower and Mid MS Valleys today but there will be no direct effects into IA with deformation zone precip staying through MO and IL. If anything occurs they won't last long however as mixing eventually reduces the low level moisture sufficiently to eliminate any CAPE.
1144 AM MDT Thu May 4 2017 We're looking at a change in the pattern for the next few days as a high amplitude ridge builds overhead through the early part of the weekend.
300 PM CDT Thu May 4 2017 Temperatures as of 3 PM CDT have risen into the low to mid 70s in many locations around Southeast Texas with breezy to windy and sunny conditions in place this afternoon.
A region of high pressure over the northern plains will maintain a quite and mild weather pattern over the region beginning today and continuing through the weekend. Latest water vapor imagery shows an upper high circulating over central Nevada, with the associated ridge axis north through Alberta, Canada. Winds bounded within the lowest afternoon humidities only around 5kt/6mph, so no fire weather concerns.
Lows are expected in the low to mid 40s. Friday will begin with a period of warmer temperatures across the region. Upper level ridge is expected to work into the area leading to pleasant conditions through the weekend.
304 PM CDT Thu May 4 2017 Gusty nw winds behind stg cold front late yesterday eve meeting marginal LWA criteria. Continued nw flow aloft with stg western conus ridging creating enough omega blocking to keep area dry for about a week. Pacific airmass will finally sneak underneath an even larger upper low that will be located well off upper Pac coast, with a weak front and perhaps some Pacific moisture to augment gradually increasing southerly low lvl flow.
The guidance suggest lower 70s for highs which is warmer than the RAP and HRRR models. The warmer guidance is the basis for the forecast today.
Less precip across southern and eastern zones has allowed temperatures to warm into the low to mid 60s. Despite the negligible CAPE on the 12Z sounding and forecasted by model guidance today, latest models including the HRRR indicate that showers and thunderstorms will intensify this afternoon over eastern zones as forcing associated with the approaching upper low interacts with the warm sector.
316 PM EDT Thu May 4 2017 An upper low will bring unsettled and much cooler weather to end the work week. A warm front will lift north this afternoon. All this activity is occurring ahead of an approaching strong upper level low, expected to move over the OH Valley and WV tonight. Dewpoints will increase as the upper low moves closer tonight. Forecast period continues to revolve around upper level low. The cold front will have moved out of the area by Friday night with the upper level low overhead.
Upper level ridging will dominate the region for the next several days.
A storm system moving onto the west coast will bring showers and thunderstorms, gusty winds, and cooler temperatures, beginning Friday and continuing through the weekend.
224 PM CDT Thu May 4 2017 As of 2 pm, the cold front is now through Tuscaloosa and will be moving into the Birmingham Metro by 3 pm and into the Montgomery metro by 4 pm. Moderate rain and an isolated thunderstorm can not be ruled out right along the cold front, but outside of that that rain is the predominate weather through tonight. Once the cold front works through then the main upper low will begin to slide into the area.
Expect periods of rain tonight through tomorrow as the overhead upper level low moves northeast.
The line is well ahead of the cold front as well as the boundary that it initially formed along. After the moderate showers and thunderstorms associated with this squall line, light stratiform rain will follow, then we'll have a break before showers along the cold front come through this evening.
An unstable air mass ahead of a low pressure system offshore will result in a threat of thunderstorms mainly this evening. Expect the cold front associated with the low pressure system to move across the area late tonight or early Friday morning. Meanwhile, the low pressure system will continue moving slowly east.
An upper trough over the Southern Plains early this morning, will deepen into a closed upper low as it traverses into the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys through Friday. The steep lapse rates and remnant cold air aloft should result in scattered cumulus development from midday through the afternoon and highs about 4-7 degrees warmer than yesterday.
258 PM MDT Thu May 4 2017 Large high-pressure ridge off to the west will continue to move over the region tonight and into tomorrow bringing warmer and drier conditions. Tomorrow's temps will be about 10 degrees warmer. Warmer temperatures in the high- country will also accelerate snow melt.
353 PM EDT Thu May 4 2017 High pressure will slide off the east coast today. A storm system will track into the Ohio Valley this evening, bringing rain and cooler than normal temperatures through the weekend. Rainfall totals tonight through Friday night will average around an inch in many places with some localized 1 to 2 inch totals possible especially in northeast Pa, the Catskills or Oneida county where southeast flow will upslope into the higher terrain.
Low level moisture will be very slow to increase ahead of this system since the previous strong system will have pushed a cold front through the Gulf and into the Caribbean.
Upper ridge over the western part of the country will drift slowly east during the period with ridge axis reaching the plains region by the weekend.
Deep low pressure center will continue to slide eastward tonight with the center of the low moving across the area tomorrow. Have extended the high wind warning until 2 AM EDT. Have the Southern Valley in a wind advisory that will expire at 10 PM EDT and the rest of the forecast area in an advisory that will expire at 2 AM EDT, the same time as the high wind warning expiration. Lows overnight will be in the lower to mid 50s. Tomorrow expect more of the same as the center of the low rotates across the area.
456 PM CDT Thu May 4 2017 A weak trough axis lies across the forecast area this afternoon, which has produced showers over portions of the MN Arrowhead this afternoon. Expect temperatures to be warmer than last night with warm air advection going on aloft, so have gone with some low to mid 30s up the north shore and inland Arrowhead, but then mid and upper 30s to around 40 elsewhere. This should also mix down some dry air and have concerns for fire weather conditions for areas north of the Iron Range with RH values dipping into the low 20s.
High pressure over the area today will shift east Friday and southerly flow will develop.
Low pressure will intensify slightly as it moves slowly east across the Ohio River Valley through Friday. Skies should start out sunny Friday, but approaching upper trough will bring increasing clouds from northwest to southeast late in the afternoon. Sharp upper trough should bring scattered or broken area of showers and possible thunderstorms Friday evening.
333 PM CDT Thu May 4 2017 Quiet conditions in place across the area this afternoon, with upper air and satellite data showing well amplified northern flow in place, set up between ridging extending through the Rockies and low pressure moving into western Kentucky/Tennessee. At the surface, high pressure is centered just west of the CWA, keeping winds northerly. Well amplified northerly flow remains in place in the upper levels, though the ridge axis is gradually shifting further east, moving onto the High Plains Friday night. At the surface, that high pressure just off to the west will continue to drift east into the area tonight into tomorrow morning, and takes quite a while for the axis to push east of the CWA.
1149 AM MDT Thu May 4 2017 A strong ridge will move over the area today and tonight with the ridgeline passing east of the area around sunset Friday. As the ridgeline passes overhead Friday winds aloft will shift to to the southwest. Models were similar in driving the high pressure ridge farther east Friday night in response to a deepening, eastward propagating low pressure system moving ashore over the West Coast.
Behind this pre-frontal convective episode, additional convective development is likely along the cold front after 15Z. Substantial airmass recovery is not expected, but dewpoints in the lower 60s and daytime heating will contribute SBCAPE around 500 J/kg. Cooler conditions will follow for tonight along with scattered showers across the North associated with the cold core upper-low.
A few light returns have been noted on radar as high pressure continues to push into the CWA. As far as highs go, went a little warmer then Superblend. It appears the deterministic guidance is 3 to 6 degrees cooler than the MOS guidance.
Overnight lows will fall to near freezing in west central Wisconsin where patchy frost is likely, especially in low lying areas in Barron, Rusk and Chippewa counties. A frontal boundary and associated area of low pressure will move southeast across central Minnesota, and west central Wisconsin by late Friday afternoon. Due to low freezing levels, any stronger updraft will lead to a few storms containing small hail. Highs tomorrow will be 5 to 10 degrees warmer than today as a west/northwest wind component allows for good mixing. I would not be surprised to see an 80 degree temperature along the Buffalo ridge in west central Minnesota. The back door cold front drops south of the area Friday night and drags some cooler air over the region through the weekend.
Nevertheless, this cloud cover has resulted in slightly cooler temperatures across central Oklahoma (when compared to surrounding locations). These will consolidate as deepening closed low shifts slowly eastward today. In its wake, mean north-northwesterly flow will result in dry weather and cooler than normal temperatures across our area. Forecast sounding support deep enough mixing for gusts of 30-35 mph during the afternoon across eastern portions of the area where height gradient is tighter and winds aloft stronger in closer proximity to the closed low.
Warm temperatures and blue skies were and remain the rule as high pressure has built in over the desert southwest. Hardly any change expected through Friday night except for surface winds which will become west to southwesterly as the ridge axis shifts to our east.
Mid afternoon surface map shows 1001 mb low pressure over western KY and giving brisk ne winds over central and southeast IL. Lows tonight in the low to mid 40s.
The 500mb weather pattern shows a high amplitude ridge set up across the western third of the nation and Canada, with a trough across the eastern half of the nation.
341 PM PDT Thu May 4 2017 Cooler with a threat of mainly mountain showers and thunderstorms into the weekend.
Fog, some dense, has formed over much of northeast Minnesota in the wake of the low in areas that cleared. Highs today will range from the lower fifties close to Lake Superior to the mid sixties well inland. The wind will turn off of the lake pushing cooler temperatures further inland this afternoon. Any lingering showers will end tonight and temperatures will cool to the upper twenties to middle thirties over most of northern Wisconsin but only drop to the lower forties over western areas where increasing winds will occur. Temperatures will warm ahead of a cold front and we expect highs from the middle sixties to lower seventies for most areas.
SHORT TERM (Tonight through Friday Night):500mb low/trough across the southeast United States and 500mb ridge across the western U. high pressure across the state will provide clear skies across the CWA tonight into Friday.
Upper air analysis this morning showed a low over the central Mississippi Valley and a ridge over the intermountain west. At the surface, winds were from the north to northwest behind a cold front in the Gulf. The upper low will move away to the northeast and the ridge will move across the Rockies. The low level flow will be northerly to easterly through this period.
/Tonight through Friday/ Very quiet through the next few days, with high pressure that is currently situation off to the west of the state building eastward across the region. Large amplified upper ridge remains in place across the western into central US with northern flow down across IA and into the Great Lakes region. Initially have some waa ahead of the wave that is located over southern Ontario by late Friday, with the associated cold front stretched back to the west/northwest across MN into ND. This cold front to move through Friday night with mainly some high clouds if that.
Upper level ridge axis over the western states will move to the western Dakotas by Sat. Ridge amplifies as it moves east. Upper level jet rides around the periphery of the ridge. The forecast area stays on the east side of the ridge under north/northwest flow aloft. Water vapor loop indicated a double ridge axis. The other ridge axis was over the Pacific Northwest. Short wave will send a back door cold front into the area late Fri into Sat.
Sct-bkn high clouds will continue today and tonight over se WI as the slow moving low pressure area tracks across the Ohio River Valley. Farther west, a confluent and convergent flow between the low pressure area and a ridge of high pressure may generate a few showers nw of Madison late this afternoon into the early evening. Temps in far eastern WI may be slightly cooler than yesterday due to a little stronger onshore flow and high cloud cover. 925 mb temps around 11C-12C should yield high temps in the lower to middle 60s over south central WI today. For tnt, nly winds will increase as an inverted trough extends from the low into the Lower Great Lakes.
Fair weather will persist tonight through Friday morning as an eastward-drifting high pressure ridge remains in control. By Friday afternoon, the eastern flank of an upper trough will begin overspreading the CWA from the west.
Overnight lows will drop into the mid to upper 40s for most locations, although a few low lying areas may drop into the lower 40s.
Temperatures range from the lower 50s west, with upper 50s near the Tennessee River. Latest GOES water vapor imagery shows an upper level low pressure center just to the east of Memphis, Tennessee. At the surface, a low pressure system is lifting north across the Kentucky and Tennessee border.
255 PM MST Thu May 4 2017 A strong high pressure system will continue over the region on Friday, producing another day of unseasonably hot temperatures on the deserts.
Before then, quiet weather is expected through the weekend with temperatures warming up as a ridge moves overhead.
May see a brief break in the clouds by late Thursday afternoon/early evening, but additional clouds will quickly move in/develop as the cold front approaches the area from the west. For Friday, 12Z guidance shows the surface cold front moving into the northwest part of the forecast area by Friday morning, with frontogenesis increasing across the southern part of the forecast area during the afternoon. The best moisture transport does not reach the area until Friday evening, so have delayed the highest PoPs a bit, but rain still appears likely for much of the southern half of the forecast area by late Friday afternoon.
944 PM CDT Thu Oct 12 2017 Upper-level ridge to maintain clear and dry conditions overnight. With moisture gradually increasing, low temps to be slightly warmer than previous nights, ranging from the upper 50s across southern Arkansas to the mid 60s across deep east Texas.
Quiet weather ongoing night with clear skies and warmer temps expected over the past few nights.
611 PM CDT Thu Oct 12 2017 Broad trough aloft located across the Pac NW northward into western Canada with an area of upper level high pressure across the southeastern U. However, KCYS and KLNX radars are showing the location of the weak cold front that is moving southeast this afternoon, located along a line from just east of VTN to CYS. The aforementioned cold front will continue moving southeast across the area and should be through most of western and north central NE by evening.
A weak decaying cold front is stalling out over the region.
High pressure aloft this evening was centered over southern Mississippi, and a broad upper trough was over the western CONUS/ Rockies region. Some deep moisture was rotating northward across Chihuahua Mexico and far southeast Arizona around the periphery of the upper high.
In the broader picture, the forecast area lies between an expansive anticyclone aloft across the southeast and Gulf Coast states and troughing across the Pacific Northwest with southwesterly flow aloft currently in place.
Otherwise, lows in the lower 50s and light southerly winds look good for tonight so have made no changes to temperatures and winds. These clouds trapped in a strong inversion under nearby high pressure ridge to our northeast and light winds which will likely keep skies cloudier into tonight. Lows overnight in the lower 50s, with some mid 50s in east central IL.
The cold front will continue to move through the FA tonight.
Proton Previous Discussion: Water Vapor imagery showing upper trough moving into Montana this afternoon. Upper energy that drops down on the backside of the upper trough rounds the base of the trough and moves in our direction later tonight.
A little breezy with maybe a sprinkle or two north late this afternoon into the early evening behind the cold front that has now cleared the James River Valley. We leaned toward the cooler side of guidance tonight, especially west as winds will diminish and clouds thin out. An upper level trough taking shape over the northwest U.
Look for a mostly clear to partly cloudy night with overnight lows in the lower to middle 30s. Isolated convection in the wake of a cold front continues to pop up along the foothills and Plains this afternoon. A strong low pressure system will move into the Rockies tomorrow bringing the next chance of rain and snow into the foothills and western mountains by afternoon.