Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
448 AM CDT Sun Jun 28 2020 An omega blocking pattern will amplify over the lower 48 states today. The upper ridge in the center of the omega block will build through the MS River valley, bringing likely the warmest and driest conditions of the week to the Midsouth.
Latest UA analysis and WV imagery shows a disturbance exiting Old Mexico, moving into TX, while a ridge continues to build west acrs FL into the Gulf of Mexico. Daily rain chcs will decrease from Monday through midweek as the Gulf ridge expands west.
The lines were separated by about 30 miles, with one cutting through the middle Keys and the other about 30 miles south cutting through the lower Keys around Key West. MLCAPE (mixing the lowest 50mb) was around 3400 j/kg with little convective inhibition, and lapse rates through the boundary layer near 6 degrees/km. However, CIMSS MIMIC PW satellite imagery shows drier air upstream along the base of the ridge, which looks to filter into area through the day.
Will keep some chance going for areas mainly from east of Norfolk to Omaha and also into western IA later this afternoon and this evening, in area with slight risk area which is generally along and north of where a weak warm front may be located. Highs today should reach around 90 to the lower 90s.
307 AM PDT Sun Jun 28 2020 Windy and much cooler across Southern California today and Monday as a low pressure trough deepens over the inter-mountain west.
640 AM EDT Sun Jun 28 2020 A weakening cold front will move southward across the region this morning, eventually stalling over central Ohio tonight. This boundary will eventually dissipate over southern Ohio as high pressure ridges into the region from the north and south. Lows tonight should be slightly cooler in the wake of the cold front with mid 50's inland to mid 60's near the cities.
936 AM EDT Sun Jun 28 2020 A weakening cold front will move southward across the region this morning, eventually stalling over central Ohio tonight. This boundary will eventually dissipate over southern Ohio as high pressure ridges into the region from the north and south. Lows tonight should be slightly cooler in the wake of the cold front with mid 50's inland to mid 60's near the cities.
Radar does show a few very small light rain showers over the lower portions of the Louisiana coastal parishes at 330 am CDT. Not a lot of change to talk about in the short range, as the troughing that had been over the lower Mississippi River Valley much of last week has been replaced by ridging.
516 AM MDT Sun Jun 28 2020 A vigorous upper-level trough currently over the Pacific Northwest will continue to deepen over the next 12-24 hours as it digs south toward the Great Basin. Deep layer shear remains very modest around 20 knots, so it will be difficult to get organized/long lived convection today, at least until early evening when shear begins to increase in response to strengthening 500 mb flow with the approaching trough. Strong wind gusts will be the primary hazard with deep inverted-V profiles & LCLs well above the freezing level, as well as a belt of 45 to 50 knot 700-500 hpa flow taking shape over our western zones after 00z. The same general synoptic pattern remains in place for Monday as the upper- level trough drifts slowly eastward.
Morning analysis of the pressure wind/fields indicate the Atlc ridge axis has slipped to a position further south near Stuart to Okeechobee county. A deep layer high pressure ridge will continue to dominate the local wx pattern. The mid level high center will shift west from over SOFL/Straits into the SE GOMEX as several minor short waves begin to amplify a trough over the eastern and mid Atlantic CONUS.
408 AM MDT Sun Jun 28 2020 A low pressure system over Eastern Montana has brought plenty of widespread showers and thunderstorms overnight.
A cold front will push through the area today and bring gusty winds in wind-prone locations through this evening and much cooler temperatures today and Monday.
649 AM EDT Sun Jun 28 2020 A upper level area of low pressure will stall over New England for the next few days bringing the chance for mainly afternoon and evening thunderstorms through at least mid week. Best chance will be over the higher terrain of he Catskills nearer the upper low.
An upper level low over the region today will be replaced by high pressure on Monday.
/issued 343 AM CDT Sun Jun 28 2020/ Will start the day with the sub tropical ridge extending into TX from the Gulf and an upper low located over OR. This low will spin east Monday with its associated trough deepening across the SW US.
Winds will be south to southwesterly around the Atlantic High pressure ridge with a brief change to east-southeast over the near shore waters late this afternoon as the sea breeze develops.
711 AM EDT Sun Jun 28 2020 A weak cold front over the Ohio Valley today drops into the Mid Atlantic region on Monday.
300 AM PDT Sun Jun 28 2020 Significant cooling continues today with a slight chance of late day showers over the higher Sierra Nevada.
945 AM EDT Sun Jun 28 2020 A upper level area of low pressure will stall over New England for the next few days bringing the chance for mainly afternoon and evening thunderstorms through at least mid week. Best chance will be over the higher terrain of he Catskills nearer the upper low.
Near the surface, a lee side trough of low pressure remains anchored in eastern Colorado.
259 PM CDT Sun Jun 28 2020 A mid/upper trough remained situated across the Northern Intermountain region today while southwest mid/upper flow was observed downstream across the Central Plains states. Abundant low level moisture/periods of clouds may help to keep temperatures a few degrees cooler in some areas although most locations will remain above climate normals for late June.
Although the 12Z run of the HRRR shows a couple of pop-up thunderstorms in our southern CWA and the NAMnest tries to give us a little convection in our east, I suspect that we will be too capped to allow much activity to develop, despite the high CAPE environment. Some hi-res/short term models bring dying convection close to our western CWA this evening, but the 850 mb theta-e ridge will likely be skewed just east of our CWA, and will offer little help to struggling convection in western/central Nebraska. Models are giving me a bit of a cool-down for 850 mb, and even models that have done well on our recent hot days, are giving me temps cooler than our previous forecast.
The weak warm front by early afternoon drapes across central into northern Iowa roughly from Fort Doges to Marshalltown and down towards Ottumwa.
SHORT TERM (Now through Monday night): Broad H5 ridging is taking control over the area, with similar high pressure over the Gulf. Interaction with southern Plains high pressure should help keep a tighter gradient in place, and conditions will be breezy to windy southeast to south along the coast on Monday.
On Monday a rather narrow upper ridge will be in close proximity.
346 PM CDT Sun Jun 28 2020 Mid/upper level ridging will gradually move east into the MS River Valley tonight and Monday. This will result in only limited chances for generally isolated shower/thunderstorm activity across the quad state region, until another mid level low pressure system lifts north from the southern Plains into the MO River Valley Monday afternoon and then stalls Monday night. With temperatures rising to near 90 or the lower 90s and surface dew point in the very uncomfortable lower/mid 70s, we should see heat index values rise into the upper half of the 90s to near 100 at many locations Monday afternoon. Hottest readings should be along and east of the MS River, closer to the departing ridge.
303 PM EDT Sun Jun 28 2020 A broad upper level trough of low pressure settling over the Northeast U. Elsewhere across the western portion of the area, trimmed back POPs behind the weak cold front and confined wx type mention to only a few showers per radar trends and weak mid level lapse rates. Max temps will range from the upper 70s across the higher terrain of the Alleghenies to the upper 80s in the middle to lower Susquehanna Valley. There are continued indications that upper troughing over northeastern North America will become more pronounced and extend southward into the Mid Atlantic region by the middle of the week.
The Keys remain on the southern periphery of the Atlantic ridge, which extends through the Bahamas, central Florida, and into the eastern Gulf of Mexico. The ridge axis has been slowly sliding towards the south as a deep layer low drops into New England and troughing develops along the eastern seaboard. As a consequence of the ridge axis approaching, winds should slowly begin to decrease this evening and overnight. The low over New England will become cut off, and remain over the northeastern states for days with troughing extending along the east coast.
An Omega block pattern will still be in place tomorrow, however the ridge will more firmly be in place across the region.
The upper level pattern features a blocked/slow moving pattern with a large ridge over the midwest/Great Lakes region and upper level lows over the northwest Rockies and Northeast respectively (developing Omega Block).
High pressure over the Gulf coast keeps us in this NW flow through the period.
315 PM EDT Sun Jun 28 2020 A broad upper level trough of low pressure settling over the Northeast U. Elsewhere across the western portion of the area, trimmed back POPs behind the weak cold front and confined wx type mention to only a few showers per radar trends and weak mid level lapse rates. Max temps will range from the upper 70s across the higher terrain of the Alleghenies to the upper 80s in the middle to lower Susquehanna Valley. There are continued indications that upper troughing over northeastern North America will become more pronounced and extend southward into the Mid Atlantic region by the middle of the week.
113 PM MDT Sun Jun 28 2020 Upper low diving from Pacific NW into Idaho by evening will produce strong moist mid level flow over our region. East may still warm up Monday as it remains in warm sector with upper low slow to propagate eastward much. The highest peaks of the Beartooth/Absaroka Mountains (10,000+ feet) could be cold enough for some wet snow at times tonight through Monday night.
153 PM MDT Sun Jun 28 2020 19Z UTC Water Vapor Imagery and RAP analysis continued to indicate broad westerly flow aloft over the CWA with short wave trough moving east across central Kansas, with much of CWA under the effects of subsidence behind it. At the surface flow aloft has become southeasterly with convergent area/trough once again setting up in western CWA. For this part of the forecast the upper level trough over the Great Basin lifts northeast across the Plains mid week as the ridge over Mexico builds north onto the Plains. There look to be minor troughs moving through the 500mb flow over the forecast area during this time.
Temperatures should warm back into the low/mid 80s (70s mountains) by mid-afternoon. A cold front draped across northern OH/PA in the vicinity of I-90 will sag southward through the afternoon/evening hours. Only marginally-cooler air is expected behind the front.
At the surface and the lower levels, there appears to be a boundary lifting northward in southeastern NE and southern IA.
Prevailing southerlies tonight through Monday will continue to reinforce a fairly warm air mass across the high plains of western Kansas. 850mb temperatures from 00z Sunday to 00z Monday are forecast to be anywhere from 0 to -2C cooler.
1203 PM EDT Sun Jun 28 2020 A weakening cold front will move southward across the region this morning, eventually stalling over central Ohio tonight. This boundary will eventually dissipate over southern Ohio as high pressure ridges into the region from the north and south. A weakening cold front has reached the south shore of Lake Erie and will gradually drift southward, eventually stalling over central Ohio tonight. Lows tonight should be slightly cooler in the wake of the cold front with mid 50's inland to mid 60's near the cities.
156 PM MDT Sun Jun 28 2020 19Z UTC Water Vapor Imagery and RAP analysis continued to indicate broad westerly flow aloft over the CWA with short wave trough moving east across central Kansas, with much of CWA under the effects of subsidence behind it. At the surface flow aloft has become southeasterly with convergent area/trough once again setting up in western CWA. An upper-level deep trough moves out of the Great Basin and over the High Plains during the middle of the week.
A vigorous upper-level trough currently over the Pacific Northwest will continue to deepen over the next 12-24 hours as it digs south toward the Great Basin. Deep layer shear remains very modest around 20 knots, so it will be difficult to get organized/long lived convection today, at least until early evening when shear begins to increase in response to strengthening 500 mb flow with the approaching trough. Strong wind gusts will be the primary hazard with deep inverted-V profiles & LCLs well above the freezing level, as well as a belt of 45 to 50 knot 700-500 hpa flow taking shape over our western zones after 00z. The same general synoptic pattern remains in place for Monday as the upper- level trough drifts slowly eastward.
Temperatures should warm back into the low/mid 80s (70s mountains) by mid-afternoon. A cold front draped across northern OH/PA in the vicinity of I-90 will sag southward through the afternoon/evening hours. Only marginally-cooler air is expected behind the front. An omega-type block sets up across North America, with the Upper Ohio Valley region underneath northerly flow on the western periphery of a large closed low centered across the northeast. Despite the presence of northerly flow, the strength of the upstream ridge is strong enough such that each day will feature near- or above-average temperature with plenty of June/July sun.
Closed lows over the northern rockies and near New England will only meander at best, with ridging in between extending from the Gulf of Mexico northward to the upper MS Valley.
Mid-latitude trough axes begin to wane in their influence given the fairly weak gradients. High pressure will remain in control, and this means that the mesoscale processes will continue to drive daily weather. Light west to southwesterly flow will prevail through much of the period, with the high pressure center situated off to the east. Such a pattern favors the highest concentration of showers and thunderstorms for the interior and Southwest Florida each day. While still flirting with advisory levels for the next couple days, increasing moisture, more clouds, and more typical showers and thunderstorms should allow temperatures to continue trending towards the low-to-mid-90s rather than upper 90s that have been so prevalent for the last few days. By the weekend, temperatures may once again be in the upper 80s at the coast, and only the low 90s inland.
Most areas will only fall into the lower or middle 70s. Overall, temperatures should be a tad cooler given the expected convection and cloud cover.
However, the upper level ridge which the models have been advertising is building across central and eastern Missouri and western Illinois at this time. If any storms can form under the upper ridge, I don't think they'll last much past sunset. This will knock a solid dent in the upper level ridge, and the trough is forecast to cut off and become an eddy in the flow aloft which remains over the Mid Mississippi Valley, stuck in the saddle point under the ridge to the north and south and between two long wave troughs to the east and west.
Storms will quickly diminish this evening as the weak trough moves off to the east and the daytime heating weakens. Ridging continues into the day Monday leaving us with a more classic summertime pattern with storms beginning on the land breeze during the morning and then a second round of more robust storms initiating along the seabreeze and spreading inland through boundary interactions. With the ridge over head, clouds will be hard to come by allowing for quick heating during the afternoon. Temperatures will likely reach the low 90s today and tomorrow with heat indices in the upper 90s to low 100s. Storms should increase in coverage and spread northward with the best chances for rain along the highway 84 corridor.
An omega block pattern is in place with the ridge building into the region today. Greater coverage will ride down the back side of the trough and remain NE of the forecast area, however some scattered storms could brush NE AL and Southern Middle TN. Another muggy night with lows in the lower 70s and light winds.
The latest dew points in eastern Nebraska were in the lower to mid 70s. Before then, a short wave trough along with waa is expected to bring some storms this evening into western sd possibly affecting north central sd. Otherwise, tonight's lows will be in the upper 60s to the lower 70s with steady south to southeast winds.
The EC and GFS project the trof farther east with the best threat of storms mainly east of highway 83, with storms forming in the late afternoon then continue pushing eastward.
1051 AM PDT Sun Jun 28 2020 A slow moving weather system will bring showers and thunderstorms to the region on Sunday along with cooler temperatures.
135 PM EDT Sun Jun 28 2020 A weakening cold front will move southward across the region this morning, eventually stalling over central Ohio tonight. This boundary will eventually dissipate over southern Ohio as high pressure ridges into the region from the north and south. A weakening cold front has reached the south shore of Lake Erie and will gradually drift southward, eventually stalling over central Ohio tonight. Lows tonight should be slightly cooler in the wake of the cold front with mid 50's inland to mid 60's near the cities.
153 PM MDT Sun Jun 28 2020 Upper low diving from Pacific NW into Idaho by evening will produce strong moist mid level flow over our region. East may still warm up Monday as it remains in warm sector with upper low slow to propagate eastward much. The highest peaks of the Beartooth/Absaroka Mountains (10,000+ feet) could be cold enough for some wet snow at times tonight through Monday night.
Afternoon highs should reach into the lower 90s tomorrow with heat indices in the upper 90s to around 100. Temperatures will also be quite warm, reaching into the lower 90s across the area. Dewpoints tomorrow should be in the lower 70s. A low pressure area will begin to move into the area from the south-southwest. However, as the low pressure area moves into the CWA, pops will become likely across most of the area with definite showers and storms in the southeast.
An upper trough will move into the state from the southwest late tonight and bring a better chance of showers and thunderstorms into Monday morning.
With reduced influence of upr ridge and advertised cooling to around -8.
There could be spotty nighttime convection Monday night on the nose of the low level jet underneath the upper ridge.
Surface temperatures valid 28/16Z were running about 5 to 10 degrees cooler than 24 hours ago. At the same time, another trough across the Great Basin will near our region, inducing strong gusty southwest winds this afternoon and Monday. Temperatures this afternoon will be a few degrees below normal due to lower heights and thicknesses associated with the trough moving through. We'll hold on to these "cooler" temperatures through midweek, then warm up a bit into the holiday weekend. While relative humidity levels will be borderline in some areas, especially in the higher terrain above 6500 feet and along portions of the International Border, strong winds will override the higher humidity levels in fine fuels.
Rain chances looking a little slimmer Monday afternoon with ridging/subsidence winning out.
Large upper level low over southern Quebec will continue to slowly settle south, with upper level northerly confluent flow over the Central Great Lakes dominating over the next several days, with PW values holding mostly under 1 inch.
Dry cold front passing through bringing cooler temps and gusty conditions to the wind-prone areas of the district today.
With dew points in the lower 70s, this will push heat indicies well into the mid-upper 90s. This might be the highest values we've seen so far this warm season.
Monday's forecast a little tricky, as we will be sandwiched underneath an upper level ridge locked between two low pressure systems. A low pressure trough developing in the central plains overnight will make a run at breaking down the western edge of the ridge starting tomorrow. Intermittent chances for showers and thunderstorms continue through mainly the middle of the work week, with a lot depending on how the mid level trough working up the western side of the ridge evolves, and whether any spurred convection upstream survives into our area.
Temperatures will climb back up into the lower 90s and may flirt with 102-106 heat indices over the southwest half of the area.
Prevailing southerlies tonight through Monday will continue to reinforce a fairly warm air mass across the high plains of western Kansas.
332 PM EDT Sun Jun 28 2020 High pressure will build south out of Ontario and remain in place through much of the week.
335 PM CDT Sun Jun 28 2020 This afternoon-Monday: Mid level ridging has done a good job at suppressing convection over the area this afternoon, though some slight chances will continue into the early evening as outflows from storms over central LA may still swing into the area and initiate a few cells. While the mid level ridge will shift a little to the east Monday, warm temperatures aloft should continue to suppress convective potential with only isolated thunderstorms expected.
354 PM CDT Sun Jun 28 2020 20Z water vapor imagery shows broad ridging over the lower MS River valley and a trough slowly working its way through the Pacific Northwest. After temperatures top out in the 90s area-wide today, we only fall back to the low to mid 70s by tomorrow morning. Have dropped temps a few degrees for the eastern half of the area due to the cloud cover with highs in the upper 80s, while the western half still sees a good shot at the low 90s.
145 PM MDT Sun Jun 28 2020 Latest upper level analysis has ridging across the central CONUS with large trof across the Pacific Northwest. At the surface, low pressure is located across south central South Dakota with winds mostly northwest now across the forecast area. Temperatures at 1 pm are in the 70s behind the low/cold front, and in the low 90s ahead. As the upper low slides a bit further east-northeast toward southwest MT, another round of showers and storms are expected, especially over western portions of the area, late Monday and Monday night.
High clouds are slowly thinning to sw as a shrtwv trof lifts ne across the area. /issued 343 AM CDT Sun Jun 28 2020/ Will start the day with the sub tropical ridge extending into TX from the Gulf and an upper low located over OR. This low will spin east Monday with its associated trough deepening across the SW US.
However, no additional shwrs/tstms activity mentioned thru 29/12Z as weak upper level ridging influences build across these locations.
Skies are mostly cloudy across the forecast area, and temperatures are already about 10-15 degrees cooler than this time yesterday. An upper low centered between Arlington and Lexington is bringing scattered light showers to the area. The low will travel to southeast Oregon by late afternoon with continued wrap around showers. The higher peaks of the Cascades and the eastern mountains will also see some light snow, as this been observed above 6000 feet in Mt Hood this morning. Breezy winds will continue or will develop behind the low.
256 PM EDT Sun Jun 28 2020 Synopsis/Discussion/Marine High pressure will bring mostly fair weather through this week. The upper pattern across North America this week shows upper lows over the NE and NW CONUS with a narrow ridge in between. One complicating factor is a small upper low that gets trapped under the upper ridge and could bring a few showers and thunderstorms to southern Lake Michigan and far SW Lower Michigan on Monday afternoon and evening.