Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
The upper level ridge continues to break down as an upper level low works its way through the region tonight and through the day Saturday. The exception being the far southwest CWA which may see the low 70s if the sun comes out.
Weak high pressure will continue to build into the area overnight as Dorian continues to lift rapidly away from the NC Outer Banks. A cold front was noted over the western Ohio Valley and will push southward into the Appalachians by late tonight.
The main concern through this evening is a cold front that was near the I-64 corridor at 19z. Abundant sun has allowed temps to reach the lower 90s in some areas. Dew points have risen into the lower 70s as far east as a kmdh to kpah line. Cooler north winds will bring temps down to around 60 by daybreak. The models indicate the low levels will be slow to dry out, and some of the raw model cigs and vsbys indicate fog and low clouds by 12z.
Upper Level trough will exit the northeastern conus as Dorian races northeastward toward the Canadian Maritimes alongside a strong upper level ridge over the the center of the US conus begins to build eastward. Strong upper level ridging with sinking compressed air will allow temperatures to warm to the middle and upper 90s with a few spots approaching the century mark this weekend.
Dry air will filter in from the north, as a building ridge of high pressure approaches Saturday morning. Cooler air pushing into the region will allow temperatures to drop a couple degrees Saturday, although we're still running 5 to 10 degrees above normal. The ridge of high pressure will be short-lived and pass east of the region Saturday night.
Temps have struggled to get into the lower 100s at most locations due some some lingering cloud cover, especially near Tucson.
733 PM EDT Fri Sep 6 2019 A few showers will be possible into this evening as a weak cold front moves through the Ohio Valley.
A drying trend has started today with thunderstorm activity limited to the higher terrain of southern Nevada and Northwest Arizona.
Expect dry weather overnight with low temperatures in the lower to middle 70s. As the ridge remains over the region, temperatures will be warmer tomorrow and dry weather will continue.
A general zonal patten over the lower-48 on Sat/Sun will become more amplified to start a new work week. Mean troughing is forecast to deepen over the western states, while upper ridging reestablishes itself over the SE CONUS. Despite the passage of the frontal boundary, more very warm to hot conditions are forecast to end this week, with highs rising into the lower 90s.
GAH AFTERNOON DISCUSSION: With the distinct trough of low pressure emerging through the northern Rockies region, the stage is set for the first of multiple storm systems expected to move through northeast Montana over the next several days. Later Saturday night, a short- wave ridge builds into the region from the west and provides the first break between weather systems.
Should see an increase in cloud cover late tonight into tomorrow morning ahead of an advancing cold front.
Pressure rises this afternoon have led to a modest uptick in winds out of the NNW, and eventually the cool cyclonic flow will loosen its grip as high pressure will nose in from the west and we should eventually erode this cloud shield tonight. Upper level flow becomes a bit more active Saturday night, and low level warm advection will increase across central Illinois and and across the plains where the higher rain chances will be.
A weak cold front will settle in southern Utah tonight.
With troughing over the High Plains and the ridge to the east, winds will shift to a southerly direction. Today's south/southeast winds will allow the higher dewpoints to return to the CWA this afternoon. A warm, moist and unstable airmass will continue to build over central Kansas through the day as a warm front takes shape over north-central Kansas by this evening. Forecast soundings for KCNK at 00Z also show sfc to 1 km SRH between 100 and 150 m2/s2 and a decent veering/clockwise curvature on hodographs in the low levels. Models suggest some CIN remaining in place through the afternoon but if enough low level forcing from convergence near the front can overcome the inhibition, a few supercells could initially develop in the vicinity of the warm front.
346 AM EDT Sat Sep 7 2019 A relatively weak backdoor front on the leading edge of a reinforcing ridge to the north will push southward across portions of the area this afternoon.
Low clouds and a cooler airmass in place should hold temps to the 76-83 degree range for highs today.
A low pressure system continues to advance towards the area.
429 AM EDT Sat Sep 7 2019 Skies will become partly cloudy today with high temperatures this afternoon in the lower to middle 70s.
1036 PM MDT Fri Sep 6 2019 Mean troughing will continue into central Canada, supporting a continued southward bias to the jet stream and associated storm track. Expect cooler weather with passing impulses emanating form the NE Pac upper trough. The best chance of precip still looks to be over NW SD closer to the upper trough and associated LSA, with more sct activity over the southern 2/3. Main upper trough will slowly progress east across the region Sat, with the FA mainly being under the dry slot, where connective instability will be favored over the SW 2/3. Further NE over NW SD, it will be much cooler with occasional showers expected. Drier air will advect into the region Sun, with mainly dry wx expected ahead of the next deep upper trough.
256 AM MDT Sat Sep 7 2019 An upper trough will slowly cross the northern plains today and tonight. Over northwestern South Dakota, conditions will be much cooler with occasional showers, and possibly a thunderstorm.
221 AM CDT Sat Sep 7 2019 A sharp upper level short wave trough moving across the northern Rockies this morning marks the beginning of the breaking down of the persistent western CONUS upper level ridge. However, the ridge will remain stout to the south of the upper trough, including over the southern Plains, with another hot and dry in store for the forecast area today.
Farther south and west, low level strato deck associated with a low to mid- level trough will likely prevent the cooling needed for fog development. A weak trough axis will push across Lake Erie and into the PBZ CWA by late morning. Northwest flow with 850mb temperature of 9-10C and a Lake temp in excess of 20C will help induce some showery activity along or just behind this low level trough axis.
227 AM CDT Sat Sep 7 2019 The small closed low along the Canada/U. ridge. The upper level plume of moisture in advance of this system is already moving across the intermountain and northern Plains region ahead of this low, while the beginning of low level moisture advection is already moving slowly northwest/north from the lower Mississippi Valley into the southern Plains.
259 AM CDT Sat Sep 7 2019 Quiet weather early this morning with high pressure firmly in command of the weather across the Deep South. Winds will shift to the north, but this will have no impact on temperatures as subsidence from the ridge will promote this dry and mostly clear weather once again. As a result, expect temperatures to be very similar to yesterday with most valley locations peaking in the lower 90s once again.
Weak high pressure remains in place over the region with satellite imagery indicating clear skies across the forecast area. Upper ridging over the middle of the CONUS will gradually build eastward today promoting northwesterly flow aloft across the forecast area. A cold front currently moving into the western Appalachians this morning will move into the forecast area later today. Upper pattern flattens out as ridging south of the region begins pushing back north.
311 AM CDT Sat Sep 7 2019 At 3 AM, a cold front extended from Wausau to Mason City IA. The northern and eastern extent of this rain is uncertain due the dry northeast flow associated with the high pressure area located over the Great Lakes.
329 AM CDT Sat Sep 7 2019 A dry cold front is located roughly along the Interstate 40 corridor early this morning.
System departs the area to the east late today and a ridge of high pressure approaches from the west.
150 AM EDT Sat Sep 7 2019 A weak cold front is moving east of the area tonight.
148 AM EDT Sat Sep 7 2019 Skies will become partly cloudy today with high temperatures this afternoon in the lower to middle 70s.
Increase in cloud cover late tonight and Saturday morning ahead of advancing cold front.
440 AM EDT Sat Sep 7 2019 Under mostly clear to partly cloudy skies and light southwest to west winds, temperatures are averaging in the lower 80s in most island communities.
1055 PM CDT Fri Sep 6 2019 Latest surface observations and satellite imagery show that the cold front has moved into southern Missouri. This front will move south of MO/IL this evening and high pressure currently over the Dakotas will build down into the area tonight into early Saturday.
5 inch range, which is fairly moist for this time year, especially considering the dry layer in the lower levels of the atmosphere.
344 AM CDT Sat Sep 7 2019 Upper level ridging remains entrenched across the southern U. today adding another tally to the lengthening pattern of warmer than normal, rain free, days. An upper low is expected to develop across the southern gulf today which will lift a plume of higher mid level moisture north out of the gulf as it continues into south Texas.
The eastern CONUS trough/Dorian will gradually lift northeast through the day, with deep layer ridging building in from the west.
413 AM EDT Sat Sep 7 2019 High pressure will build in behind a weak cold front today, bringing slightly below normal temperatures through the weekend.
/EC/ Expect dry weather overnight with low temperatures in the lower to middle 70s. As the ridge remains over the region, temperatures will be warmer tomorrow and dry weather will continue.
Temperatures are a few degrees warmer due to the cloud cover this morning as compared to yesterday, mostly mid 60s to lower 70s at 300 AM. High pressure builds southeast from the Ohio Valley to the Tennessee Valley today and tonight. Also upper level ridging begins to rebuild over the Southeast states as upper troughing along east coast shifts east.
As a result temperatures will range from the lower 80s across central Missouri to the lower 90s across southeastern Kansas and far southwestern Missouri this afternoon.
Elsewhere, not much cooler with widespread upper 90s. Have the highest precipitation probabilities in the Syracuse to Garden to Hays line and points northwest. The long range models are not indicating any significantly cooler air to impact SW Kansas throughout the model run.
234 AM CDT Sat Sep 7 2019 Even though a narrowing mid-level ridge axis will be oriented w-e across the CWFA today mid-level heights will be lower and there will be a dry 7h-3h layer.
Weak high pressure remains in place over the region with satellite imagery indicating clear skies across the forecast area. Upper ridging over the middle of the CONUS will gradually build eastward today promoting northwesterly flow aloft across the forecast area. A cold front currently moving into the western Appalachians this morning will move into the forecast area later today.
305 AM CDT Sat Sep 7 2019 Another hot day in on tap across eastern oklahoma and western Arkansas Today even with a cold front currently across northeast Oklahoma and into far northwest Arkansas. The cold front will stall out this morning and return to the north and east as a warm front this afternoon.
/Issued 346 AM EDT Sat Sep 7 2019/ A relatively weak backdoor front on the leading edge of a reinforcing ridge to the north will push southward across portions of the area this afternoon.
Mainly dry conditions will prevail tonight and Sunday thanks to high pressure building across the central GLAKS.
Upper ridging over the middle of the CONUS will gradually build eastward today promoting northwesterly flow aloft across the forecast area. A cold front currently moving into the western Appalachians this morning will move into the forecast area later today. Upper pattern flattens out as ridging south of the region begins pushing back north.
928 AM EDT Sat Sep 7 2019 Another hot day in South Florida with temps in the low to mid 90s with heat indices soaring into the mid 100s for much of the area. Raised the high temps for some locations by a degree or so based on current temperatures across the region and latest model guidance.
/Issued 305 AM CDT Sat Sep 7 2019/ Another hot day in on tap across eastern oklahoma and western Arkansas Today even with a cold front currently across northeast Oklahoma and into far northwest Arkansas. The cold front will stall out this morning and return to the north and east as a warm front this afternoon.
451 AM MDT Sat Sep 7 2019 An upper trough will slowly cross the northern plains today and tonight. Over northwestern South Dakota, conditions will be much cooler with occasional showers, and possibly a thunderstorm. Drier air will advect into the region on Sunday, with mainly dry weather expected ahead of the next deep upper trough.
Vis imagery depicts low clouds over a wider spread area of middle TN east of I-65 to along the Cumberland Plateau along and just ahead of a cold front. The cold front has passed Nashville and was nearing the Memphis area. This, combined with the clear conditions, will allow for good radiational cooling as lows will bottom out in the lower 60s in most locations tonight into early Sunday morning. The center of the upper-ridge will begin to shift east into the Tennessee Valley Sunday into early next as it becomes centered almost directly over Huntsville. With this 594 dm ridge in place, expect a pronounced warming trend with mid to upper 90s highs and dry weather likely each afternoon.
Upper ridge and a very dry airmass will remain in place across the region today. 12z KTAE sounding shows plenty of dry air in the low levels, so dewpoints should stay in the lower to mid 60s, keeping heat index values below heat advisory levels.
528 AM MDT Sat Sep 7 2019 The first of a series of low pressure systems is moving across eastern Montana this morning. Inverted trof extending across southeast Montana will result in enough pressure gradient to push winds to Lake Wind criteria across the eastern portion of the lake. Lobe of low pressure lifts into the northern Rockies and spreading another round of rain into eastern Montana Sunday night.
Unsettled weather moves eastward as an upper level ridge pays the northern Rockies a short visit today. The change is short-lived, though, as a deep trough of low pressure approaches for another round of unsettled weather. Rain starts again on Sunday afternoon, moving from southwest to northeast as a negatively tilted trough axis sets up over the northern Rockies and a closed low spins over the Pacific Northwest.
Today should be cooler in about the northeast half of Arkansas. It will move a little further into Arkansas today but will hang up and dissipate as the upper ridge to the southwest reasserts itself. Same ridge. We wait on cooler weather.
A weak surface front will linger across Georgia as high pressure begins to build across the southern Florida peninsula through the weekend. High pressure will build north of the region mid-week with persistent onshore flow developing across the local waters and increasing easterly swells.
Low clouds and a cooler airmass in place should hold temps to the 76-83 degree range for highs today. Updated at 315 AM EDT Sat Sep 7 2019 Sunday we'll have a zonal flow across the area with a warm front trying to lift northward, at least into western KY. That transition period goes into a warm work week, with ridging building in from the south.
Starting out the weekend with a continuation of the ridge influence. The ridge influence is compromised on Sunday as a week upper low over the western approaches and shift the high east, slightly shaving off a few degrees from our afternoon highs.
High pressure over the desert southwest is breaking down with the bulk of the ridge shifting further east as a trough approaches the west coast this morning. For today, all of that gets joined by a solid mid level impulse just ahead of the trough kicking across southern California and into Arizona today, with a weakening trough following tonight.
638 AM EDT Sat Sep 7 2019 Skies will become partly cloudy today with high temperatures this afternoon in the lower to middle 70s.
An upper level ridge over the central US will gradually build eastward today promoting northwesterly flow aloft across the forecast area. A dry cold front will move into the forecast area later today reinforcing the dry conditions. Upper pattern flattens out as ridging south of the region begins pushing back north.
A stronger disturbance on Sunday will bring cooler temperatures and gusty winds but deliver drier air for a downturn in thunderstorms.
High pressure will continue into Sunday. /issued 344 AM CDT Sat Sep 7 2019/ Upper level ridging remains entrenched across the southern U. today adding another tally to the lengthening pattern of warmer than normal, rain free, days. An upper low is expected to develop across the southern gulf today which will lift a plume of higher mid level moisture north out of the gulf as it continues into south Texas.
The upper ridge will remain dominate, over West Central Texas, for the next 24 hours.
654 AM EDT Sat Sep 7 2019 High pressure will build in behind a weak cold front today, bringing slightly below normal temperatures through the weekend. Model RH panels are suggesting that the low level moisture will linger for the morning hours, before drier air finally begins to work in and the clouds will begin to decrease. High temperatures will generally be in the mid 70s, with parts of West Central Ohio staying in the lower 70s. The high will continue to drop into the region tonight, but scattered clouds will affect the area through the night. Highs in Sunday will range from the lower 70s in the far northwest to near 80 in nrn KY.
647 AM CDT Sat Sep 7 2019 At 3 AM, a cold front extended from Wausau to Mason City IA. The northern and eastern extent of this rain is uncertain due the dry northeast flow associated with the high pressure area located over the Great Lakes.
944 AM EDT Sat Sep 7 2019 High pressure will build in behind a weak cold front today, bringing slightly below normal temperatures through the weekend. The high will continue to drop into the region tonight, but scattered clouds will affect the area through the night. Highs in Sunday will range from the lower 70s in the far northwest to near 80 in nrn KY.
536 AM CDT Sat Sep 7 2019 The small closed low along the Canada/U. ridge. The upper level plume of moisture in advance of this system is already moving across the intermountain and northern Plains region ahead of this low, while the beginning of low level moisture advection is already moving slowly northwest/north from the lower Mississippi Valley into the southern Plains.
The upper ridge will remain dominant, over West Central Texas, for the next 24 hours.
An uptick in southerly winds is expected in response to a strengthening lee trough across the Central Plains. /Issued 250 AM CDT Sat Sep 7 2019/ /Today and Tonight/ A persistent upper ridge will remain over the Lone Star State again today, keeping hot and precipitation-free weather. It will be slightly breezier today than the past several days due to a strengthening lee trough across Central High Plains.
This will lead to warm afternoon high temps in the lower to mid 90s. Lower dewpoints today will keep us below heat advisory criteria but heat indices will still be in the lower 100s.
350 PM EDT Sat Sep 7 2019 High pressure is nosing into the Ohio Valley this afternoon. The lows will drop into the mid to upper 50s.
Currently watching mid level weak trough over the southwest Gulf of Mexico with some decent moisture associated with it.
237 PM MDT Sat Sep 7 2019 Pleasant conditions will continue through the evening with high pressure briefly passing through the north-central Idaho and western Montana. The next trough is already spreading cloud cover into the Pacific Northwest and is expected to arrive to north- central Idaho and western Montana on Sunday.
Can't rule out isolated areas of patchy fog over the far southeast part of South Central Texas around dawn Sunday morning where dewpoints are expected to range from the low to mid 70s.
An upper level ridge over the central US will promote northwest flow aloft over the forecast area today. A dry cold front will move into the forecast area later today reinforcing dry conditions. The mid and upper level pattern will flatten out across the Southeast as ridging south of the region begins pushing back north. Temperatures will continue to run above normal for the second week of September with afternoon highs in the low/mid 90s and overnight lows around 70. Models continue to show surface ridging north of the cwa, keeping a weak onshore flow pattern.
An upper level ridge over the central US will promote northwest flow aloft over the forecast area today. A dry cold front will move into the forecast area later today reinforcing dry conditions. Upper pattern flattens out as ridging south of the region begins pushing back north.
Looks like the highest heat indices will be across south central Louisiana where the 110-111 values are found. High pressure will continue into Sunday. /issued 344 AM CDT Sat Sep 7 2019/ Upper level ridging remains entrenched across the southern U. today adding another tally to the lengthening pattern of warmer than normal, rain free, days. An upper low is expected to develop across the southern gulf today which will lift a plume of higher mid level moisture north out of the gulf as it continues into south Texas.
Mon the Bermuda Ridge axis pivots northward from S fl through the day, shifting the diffuse frontal zone across SE GA westward into the evening. Tranquil weather anticipated Mon night with mid level 500 mb ridge providing dry and stable conditions. Subsidence under the retreating 500 mb ridge limits convective potential. Max heat index in the lower 100s both days. Lows Mon night will range from the lower 70s inland to the upper 70s beaches. Wed-Thu stronger ENE steering flow develops as an inverted trough axis approaches the FL peninsula from the east with an increase in precipitable water content back toward near to above climo values across NE FL, while drier air and stronger subsidence will limit rainfall potential across SE GA. Greater tstorm potential with cooler temperatures aloft. High pressure will dominate the local pattern through mid week.
With high pressure in place aloft, temperatures will fall into the lower 70s overnight night after reaching well into the upper 90s this afternoon.
A ridge will move across the region today as the next system moves into the region tonight. As the center of the trough wraps up over the region, showers and thunderstorms will form on the northwest side of the storm, with precipitation becoming widespread across the area before the storm begins to move out of the region. Temperatures will be around 10-15 degrees cooler on Sunday.
253 PM CDT Sat Sep 7 2019 Models show good consensus in the short term taking the upper low from northeast Montana across southwest North Dakota, into southern Minnesota by Sunday afternoon.
In contrast to yesterday where dewpoints were creeping into the low 80s, the values from today are in the upper 60s to low 70s. Because of the lower feels-like temperatures, a heat advisory has not been issued today. As a building high pressure feature begins to break down by mid- week, light easterly flow will return. A weak trough will begin to develop near the Bahamas, contributing to scattered showers and thunderstorms by mid-week as additional tropical moisture is advected across the peninsula.