Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
624 PM CDT Mon Apr 6 2020 Despite the continued cloud cover today, a warm front has pushed through the area and temperatures have responded into the mid 60s to low 70s so far this afternoon. Pretty good low level warm advection occurring underneath an upper level ridge across the region that extends all the way through the Mississippi valley. A closed low was just off the California coast with southwest diffluent flow ahead of the low in the southwest U.
455 PM MDT Mon Apr 6 2020 Deep mixing occurring today under a robust southwest flow as a result of a deep and closed mid-level low pressure system dropping southward along the California coast.
338 PM MDT Mon Apr 6 2020 Departing low pressure toward the east will allow warmer high pressure influence from the south to spread over the area through Tuesday.
Our southwest will see the warmest temperatures Tuesday topping out in the lower 80s while rainfall should hold the remainder of our CWA in the mid to upper 70s.
/Issued 228 PM CDT Mon Apr 6 2020/ Upper level low was sliding down the west coast this afternoon with a broad downstream ridge over south central states. Continued low level warm advection resulting in warmer temps today despite considerable clouds, and the warming trend will continue the next couple of days as low level thermal ridge expands east.
620 PM CDT Mon Apr 6 2020 The stationary front currently draped across central Missouri will lift northward over the evening as warm front as flow in the low levels and near surface layer becomes southwesterly. Storm initialization will be a struggle during the afternoon and early evening Tuesday as strong WAA advection in the low to mid levels will create a stout cap of 150-200 J/kg of CIN. A weak cold front will move southeast through the CWA Tuesday night and will be the best focus for surface convergence and storm development.
Latest upper level analysis has a broad ridge across the central CONUS with positively tilted trof across the west. Upper low is located across California in the base of this trof. At the surface, warm frontal boundary continues to shift north with breezy to windy southwest boundary layer flow in place across the forecast area. As low pressure moves east of the region, it will drag a weak cold front slowly south across the area on Tuesday. A stronger cold front will move across the Northern Plains Tuesday night, dropping temps to near or slightly below seasonal values for mid to late week.
1003 PM EDT Mon Apr 6 2020 A broad mean layer ridge is centered over the Yucatan. This evening's KKEY RAOB sampled barotropic northwesterlies from near the SFC to the tropopause, painting the eastern extent of the ridge complex. Satellite derived moisture products reveal a sliver of drier air across much of the Florida Keys west of the low, corroborated by the drop in PW sampled by this evening's RAOB. Moisture convergence should wane as the low fills. The wind forecast will be challenging, as the variable mass fields slide west, with enhanced breezes along the periphery of the low. For example, Fowey Rocks has been gusting into the low 20s kts for the past few hours.
If we are able to erode the stratus, temperatures should warm up nicely with highs possibly reaching the lower 80s in many areas. However, if stratus is slow to erode, temperatures will be several degrees cooler, and while we will still warm up nicely, highs may top out in the mid 70s.
Upper ridge over the midwest is expected to begin to flatten as northern stream energy begins to impact the region. A boundary between the warm air anchored within the ridge and the incoming cooler northern stream is expected to develop just northeast of the forecast area this evening. Counties generally north of I-74 will see a chance of showers and possibly a thunderstorm overnight after the low-level jet intensifies and begins to interact with the boundary. The ridge should continue to flatten on Tuesday allowing some colder air aloft to steepen lapse rates across the area.
Warmer and drier weather will then develop across the region during mid to late week. Model guidance shows an upper ridge building over the NERN PAC during mid to late week. That feature combined with a trough over the SWRN CONUS will favor deep-layer offshore flow over NWRN CA.
643 PM CDT Mon Apr 6 2020 Main challenge is trend in low clouds tonight/Tuesday and timing of the mid-week cold front/cooling behind it. This should result in the warmest day of the year so far across much of the forecast area as a surface trof/quasi-dryline front moves across the area.
640 PM EDT Mon Apr 6 2020 It has been a much drier and warmer afternoon compared to the widespread wetting rain we received just 24 hours ago. High pressure will sag south of the peninsula by mid week, with westerly winds returning.
The low cloud field should continue to erode through late evening and early tonight, with KABI and KSJT remaining VFR through the rest of the TAF period. Temperatures will be mild tonight, with lows in the lower 60s. Southwesterly surface winds, combined with afternoon sun and a stronger low level thermal ridge tomorrow, will result in above normal temperatures, with afternoon highs in the mid and upper 80s.
Upper level ridging across the northeastern Pacific will remain the dominant influence across the region over the next several days, keeping Western Washington dry.
The only impacts are expected to be increased cloud cover, stronger winds over the higher mountains and foothills, and continued southwest winds over the plains and open valleys during the night. We warmed up the foothills a bit, but cooled the lower mountain valleys slight as they should still eventually decouple. A cold front trailing the overnight short wave should drop into the plains during the afternoon, but it might be late enough and weak enough to not have much impact on temperatures.
708 PM CDT Mon Apr 6 2020 23z Sfc map shows low pressure northwest of Pierre SD with a warm front east. 850 mb warm front though is farther north into southern ND and SPC meso analysis shows 30 kts of 850 mb wind from the southwest bringing a large area of warm advection to central into southeastern ND and west central MN. Currently, low pressure is centered over western SD and high pressure over the Great Lakes. The low is expected to move ESE towards northern WI/Lake Superior through tomorrow morning. A cold front will move through the area Tuesday night, ushering in cooler temps for the rest of the week.
We are also continuing to deal with upper level ridging, albeit weak ridging aloft, across our entire region as well. There does appear to be some theta-e ridging that just happens to coincide with this activity across our northern zones.
GAH AFTERNOON DISCUSSION: Departing low pressure toward the east will allow warmer high pressure influence from the south to spread over the area through Tuesday.
Surface winds will veer to west and southwest behind the trough adding a modest downslope component to the warming with wind speeds remaining below 20 mph, dry air will advect into the area with dew points falling into the 20s for all but far eastern parts of the forecast area, and abundant cirrus is expected to shift eastward with an increase in insolation. All of this supports warmer temperatures in line with MOS highs in the 80s to near 90.
A weak boundary (more of a trough than front) will move across the area on Tuesday. CONShort is running a tad warmer than much of the guidance which makes sense.
Currently, low pressure is centered over western SD and high pressure over the Great Lakes. The low is expected to move ESE towards northern WI/Lake Superior through tomorrow morning. A cold front will move through the area Tuesday night, ushering in cooler temps for the rest of the week.
A large area of low pressure off the West Coast will bring another round of gusty south to southwest winds on Tuesday.
An upper low moving slowly south just off the California coast will bring scattered showers to the region through tonight.
A large ridge of high pressure directly over the Ozarks region was helping to moisten and warm the airmass overnight.
1128 PM CDT Mon Apr 6 2020 The stationary front currently draped across central Missouri will lift northward over the evening as warm front as flow in the low levels and near surface layer becomes southwesterly. Storm initialization will be a struggle during the afternoon and early evening Tuesday as strong WAA advection in the low to mid levels will create a stout cap of 150-200 J/kg of CIN. A weak cold front will move southeast through the CWA Tuesday night and will be the best focus for surface convergence and storm development.
1134 PM CDT Mon Apr 6 2020 Main challenge is trend in low clouds tonight/Tuesday and timing of the mid-week cold front/cooling behind it. This should result in the warmest day of the year so far across much of the forecast area as a surface trof/quasi-dryline front moves across the area.
1226 AM EDT Tue Apr 7 2020 High pressure will prevail tonight.
Light SW winds prevailed at midnight, but these will trend NWly toward sunrise as a weak cold front arrives. A weak cold front will deliver several hours of northerly winds of 10-20 mph during the midday hours, but these winds will weaken quickly to light NEly during the afternoon/evening as the pressure gradients collapse. With only 2-3C cooling at 850 mb versus Monday, afternoon temperatures will again easily achieve the lower 80s at most locations.
252 AM CDT Tue Apr 7 2020 Current satellite analysis has a mid-level low pressure system off the coast of the San Francisco Bay Area, with ridge over the Gulf of Mexico.
1157 PM CDT Mon Apr 6 2020 Despite the continued cloud cover today, a warm front has pushed through the area and temperatures have responded into the mid 60s to low 70s so far this afternoon. Pretty good low level warm advection occurring underneath an upper level ridge across the region that extends all the way through the Mississippi valley. A closed low was just off the California coast with southwest diffluent flow ahead of the low in the southwest U.
Tonight into tomorrow, region will come under full influence of ridge strengthening in the eastern Pacific.
1011 PM MDT Mon Apr 6 2020 Deep mixing occurring today under a robust southwest flow as a result of a deep and closed mid-level low pressure system dropping southward along the California coast.
352 AM CDT Tue Apr 7 2020 Temperatures will be on the rise today thanks to clearing skies and the return of lee troughing over the forecast area.
Went with RAP/Conshort blend to trend in the right direction but thinking a HRRRBC (cooler) might be the more likely outcome given the very deep mixing today with the drier air working in over central KS. While another day of above normal temps are in store tomorrow, a cold front will push south through the region late afternoon and early evening as a deep upper low plunges southeast out of south central Canada.
316 AM CDT Tue Apr 7 2020 The cold front currently over the eastern part of the area will continue to push eastward, and looks to be east of the area this morning. High pressure will settle in over the Upper Midwest today, with dry conditions expected into this evening.
236 AM CDT Tue Apr 7 2020 A few nocturnal showers are popping up on radar this morning, likely being tamped down by the sub-tropical ridging over the region and this ridge is likely going to play a large role in today's activity across Middle TN. Temperatures should warm nicely again tomorrow afternoon allowing for destabilization to occur ahead of the arrival of a cold front tomorrow night.
The upper level ridge over the Gulf of Mexico will persist through much of the near term period.
300 AM MDT Tue Apr 7 2020 Current surface analysis shows low pressure over northeast SD, with a nearly stationary frontal boundary extending westward through western SD, northeast WY, and northwest into MT. Upper level analysis shows trough over the west coast, with near zonal flow across the northern Plains region. One more warm day for the area, ahead of an approaching cold front. Cold front over MT this afternoon will slide southeast across the area tonight.
Deep layer ridging is forecast to prevail across the Southeast through tonight. Isentropic ascent over a developing warm front across the west-central Gulf coast will result in an area of thunderstorms that generally moves east as it develops under strong westerly flow aloft.
Temperatures range from the 30s across the Dakota's to the 60s in the central plain states to the lower 70s down into our region. Southerly winds will cont to pump in moisture off the gulf tonight and this is the reason for the higher than normal overnight lows.
Early this morning, mild temperatures have prevailed across much of the region with readings in the lower 50s in the wake of a weak cold front passing through the area over the next few hours.
CDG Chattanooga Airport, TN 79 62 81 63 70 / 30 40 40 70 20 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 78 61 78 61 67 / 30 40 50 70 30 Oak Ridge, TN 79 61 79 60 66 / 30 40 50 70 30 Tri Cities Airport, TN 76 58 74 57 65 / 30 40 60 60 40.
Light southwest flow will remain in place throughout both Tuesday and Wednesday as a large cutoff area of low pressure slowly moves eastward along the California coast.
In short, an upper ridge of high pressure with axis centered over the NE Pacific waters will dominate the weather through the next 7 days.
326 AM MDT Tue Apr 7 2020 Low pressure will move across southern Saskatchewan today with another warm and breezy day in store for northeast Montana. A cold front will drop south tonight with a few showers possible. Temperatures will be cooler for Wednesday has high pressure moves into the region.
courtesy of a warm/dry SW flow at the lower/mid levels.
/Issued 252 AM CDT Tue Apr 7 2020/ Current satellite analysis has a mid-level low pressure system off the coast of the San Francisco Bay Area, with ridge over the Gulf of Mexico. Southwest flow will continue over the combined Panhandles today and become more zonal Wednesday as the mid to upper level low pressure system moves over southern Nevada. Being under the western part of the ridge today temperatures are looking to warm well above normal into the 80's. Wednesday, winds will shift to the north ahead of an approaching cold front.
A cold front will move across the area Wednesday night, with much cooler temperatures then expected for the rest of the forecast period.
With a humid and modestly unstable environment in place, accompanied by shear resulting from upper flow rounding the upper ridge currently overhead, any thunderstorms that do develop this afternoon could produce strong winds or hail. On Wednesday, a northern branch trough will dip south from Canada towards the Great Lakes region. This will be accompanied by a strong surface cold front that will bring back the chance for rain and thunderstorms by Wednesday afternoon.
This morning, a broad 500mb trough was centered over the southwest Canadian provinces with several distinct vort maxes detected on water vapor imagery rounding the southern base at 08Z. Steep low level lapse rates of 8+ C/km will be common behind this trough today with efficient momentum transfer in place to deliver 15 to near 30 mph sustained winds at the surface. The combination of drying westerly downsloping flow and increased winds will lead to a near critical fire weather day as forecast relative humidity values in the southwest drop into the low 20s, with mid 20s common further north. On Wednesday, the broad previously mentioned trough will drop south through the Northern Plains bringing with it a strong cold front with ample cold air advection.
TFJ Low pressure will move across southern Saskatchewan today with another warm and breezy day in store for northeast Montana. A cold front will drop south tonight with a few showers possible. Temperatures will be cooler for Wednesday has high pressure moves into the region.
A stronger cold front is still expected to move across the region Wed, with CAA and good mixing bringing windy conditions. Temperatures will remain above freezing for most of the night for most places.
516 AM MDT Tue Apr 7 2020 Current surface analysis shows low pressure over northeast SD, with a nearly stationary frontal boundary extending westward through western SD, northeast WY, and northwest into MT. Upper level analysis shows trough over the west coast, with near zonal flow across the northern Plains region. One more warm day for the area, ahead of an approaching cold front. Cold front over MT this afternoon will slide southeast across the area tonight.
438 AM MDT Tue Apr 7 2020 Overnight GOES-R WV/IR showed a nearly stationary upper low off the central CA coast, with abundant mid/upper level subtropical moisture spreading north and east across the southern CONUS. Temperatures varied from the lower 30s to mid 40s. Added the South Laramie Range Foothills to the High Wind Warning as strong winds spill out toward the I-25 corridor in Laramie County.
Early this morning, mild temperatures have prevailed across much of the region with readings in the lower 50s in the wake of a weak cold front passing through the area over the next few hours. Deep upper-level trough over western Canada shifts south into the Northern Plains/Great Lakes area tonight, dragging its associated strong cold front across the forecast area early Wednesday morning. In addition to cooler and gusty conditions, scattered rain showers will continue to develop/move east with better chances east of I-29.
The cold front currently over the eastern part of the area will continue to push eastward, and looks to be east of the area this morning. High pressure will settle in over the Upper Midwest today, with dry conditions expected into this evening. Will also see a fairly tight pressure gradient set up over the area on Wednesday ahead of approaching high pressure, so expecting a windy day. Cooler air then begins to move in, with highs in the mid 40s to lower 50s on Wednesday.
A large ridge of high pressure directly over the Ozarks region was helping to moisten and warm the airmass overnight. A strong cold front will approach from the northwest, potentially triggering deep convection roughly along and east of Highway 5. The cold front will push through quickly, so I've got to think that the window of opportunity for organized storms will be short.
A strong cold front will sweep across the forecast area tonight ushering in gusty northwest winds from Yellowstone County eastward with the winds continuing through the day Wednesday. The front will also bring a slight chance for showers tonight into Wednesday morning along with much cooler temperatures for Wednesday.
An upper low moving slowly south just off the California coast will maintain shower chances today, although many areas will likely remain dry.
/issued 352 AM CDT Tue Apr 7 2020/ Temperatures will be on the rise today thanks to clearing skies and the return of lee troughing over the forecast area.
A slow moving upper level low continues to bring unsettled weather to the silver state through mid-week. A dry period will follow with a warming trend during the late week following the departure of the upper level low. A slow moving upper level low continues to bring unsettled weather to the silver state through mid-week. A dry period will follow with a warming trend during the late week following the departure of the upper level low.
Surface winds will veer to west and southwest behind the trough adding a modest downslope component to the warming with wind speeds remaining below 20 mph, dry air will advect into the area with dew points falling into the 20s for all but far eastern parts of the forecast area, and abundant cirrus is expected to shift eastward with an increase in insolation. All of this supports warmer temperatures in line with MOS highs in the 80s to near 90. Wednesday will be another warm day (upper 80s to low 90s) as southwest flow aloft and westerly surface winds continue and drier and warmer air is advected into the CWA. Backdoor cold front will make its way through the FA late Wednesday night as an upper level Pacific low moves into western AZ.
340 AM MDT Tue Apr 7 2020 Overnight GOES-R WV/IR showed a nearly stationary upper low off the central CA coast, with abundant mid/upper level subtropical moisture spreading north and east across the southern CONUS. Temperatures varied from the lower 30s to mid 40s. Added the South Laramie Range Foothills to the High Wind Warning as strong winds spill out toward the I-25 corridor in Laramie County.
519 AM MDT Tue Apr 7 2020 Overnight GOES-R WV/IR showed a nearly stationary upper low off the central CA coast, with abundant mid/upper level subtropical moisture spreading north and east across the southern CONUS. Temperatures varied from the lower 30s to mid 40s. Added the South Laramie Range Foothills to the High Wind Warning as strong winds spill out toward the I-25 corridor in Laramie County.
A few nocturnal showers are popping up on radar this morning, likely being tamped down by the sub-tropical ridging over the region and this ridge is likely going to play a large role in today's activity across Middle TN. Temperatures should warm nicely again tomorrow afternoon allowing for destabilization to occur ahead of the arrival of a cold front tomorrow night.
A slow moving upper level low continues to bring unsettled weather to the silver state through mid-week. A dry period will follow with a warming trend during the late week following the departure of the upper level low.
951 AM EDT Tue Apr 7 2020 Weak ridge extending westward across Florida will lead to a weaker onshore flow across the area today. Much more sunshine expected today even with developing diurnal cu into the afternoon, with highs much warmer in the low 80s along the coast and mid-upper 80s over the interior.
But another warm day is expected tomorrow ahead of the stronger cold front.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 61 80 62 68 44 / 40 40 70 20 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 61 78 60 66 41 / 40 50 70 30 10 Oak Ridge, TN 60 79 59 66 40 / 40 50 70 30 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 58 74 56 64 37 / 40 70 50 50 10.
313 PM CDT Tue Apr 7 2020 Warmer today with 85 degrees already at 2 pm.
Forecast area will be under the influence of a dry northwest flow through tonight as a ridge of high pressure builds off the coast and nudges towards the Pacific Northwest. The building ridge off the coast will boost temperatures slightly today.
The best combination of forcing and saturation with these features will be across the southern portion of the area late tonight into early Wednesday afternoon, so confined the highest PoPs to that area. A much colder large scale pattern will settle across the region for the remainder of the forecast period, with northwest flow giving way to a large scale upper trough across the eastern part of North America.
This warm nose aloft will limit precipitation development this afternoon as the cold front pushes across the region with associated weak frontogenesis. Behind the cold front, high pressure builds in behind, leading to clear and dry conditions tonight. Somewhat flatter flow regime in place today will quickly be replaced by digging upper troughing through late week, driving another stronger cold front through the region later Wednesday and ushering in notably colder air into the early weekend.
The stationary low pressure system off the central California coast will begin to work slowly south down the coast today. This low pressure will turn east into the desert southwest and bring somewhat cooler and wet conditions to the area midweek. An upper low off the central California coast this morning will continue to drift south through the day before turning inland tonight. In addition, can not rule out a few showers over the higher terrain during peak afternoon heating, but with a slight drying trend today this will be quite limited. Otherwise, expect slightly warmer temperatures compared to yesterday with less wind. As the low moves into the desert southwest, latest models indicate it will swing northwest into southern Nevada and southwest Utah tomorrow through Wednesday, with the upper jet nosing into southern Utah.