Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
High res models in fair agreement that these areas will see temperatures dropping into the low to mid 30s, with upper 20s possible northwest thanks to a clearing sky and winds becoming light and variable. The main focus for the short term is rain chances this morning and potential freezing temperatures and frost tonight. As high pressure builds in this evening the chances for precipitation will drop and shift further south. The latest short-term model guidance suggests temperatures in the low to mid 30s will be common across portions of western and northern North Dakota as the center of high pressure moves into these areas by the early morning hours.
642 PM EDT Mon Sep 12 2016 High pressure will provide dry weather through Tuesday night along with warm temperatures on Tuesday.
606 PM EDT MON SEP 12 2016 High pressure centered over the region will slowly move offshore Tuesday.
This will result in widespread dry weather though with temperatures staying near to slightly cooler than normal. Latest AMDAR sounding measured temperatures as cold as -11C at 500 mb associated with the broad trough across the Pacific Northwest, which is approaching a record low for the date. The formerly mentioned Pacific Northwest trough will swing into cntrl Nevada Tuesday, becoming more neutrally tilted, and temporarily stall/fill (before lifting out later in the week).
Southwesterly flow aloft will begin to set up as an upper level ridge begins to build to our south. Globals are still persistent in cutting off an upper low over the Pacific Coastal areas by midweek.
303 PM CDT MON SEP 12 2016 Sunny skies dominated the afternoon for the Midwest as a whole as high pressure dominated the Great Lakes and much of the region. Warm temperatures continued with southerly surface winds with return flow behind the ridge axis to the east. Southwesterly flow will help to continue the warming aloft and at the surface through the overnight and through at least the first half of tomorrow as a cold front slowly approaches from the NW. The front is associated with a trof aloft stretching from the Hudson Bay back to the Central Pacific coast. The cold front is not exactly in parallel flow just yet.
1140 AM MDT MON SEP 12 2016 UPDATED AVIATION Upper level trough continues to dig south from the Northern Rockies and MT towards the Great Basin this morning, with the bulk of the widespread precipitation now to the South of the forecast area ahead of the trough axis. This low-level cloud cover should begin clearing from the north over North-Central MT after 00Z/Tue, while Southwest Montana, including KBZN, will likely reside under this widespread cloud cover throughout the TAF period.
315 PM CDT MON SEP 12 2016 Cold front has now cleared the entire CWA, with breezy northerly winds across the entire area.
125 PM EDT MON SEP 12 2016 High pressure moves away from the area through Tuesday.
149 PM MDT MON SEP 12 2016 Cold front has cleared the forecast area with northerly winds gradually diminishing and showers/thunderstorms exiting to the east. Temperatures on Tuesday will probably be held in check due to the clouds/showers so will continue with the cooler side of guidance. This is due to southwesterly flow into the region caused by a deep closed low over the western CONUS.
Cold front continues to make slow progress as it passes through the forecast area.
Tuesday onward, a dry and warm late summer weather pattern will prevail across the region however mornings will be cool with the potential for freezing temperatures early in the work week.
300 PM CDT MON SEP 12 2016 Cold front currently extends from southeast Nebraska to near Dodge City and into the OK panhandle. Mid level temps will be much cooler than today which should allow some development along the front Tue afternoon/evening, with areas along and southeast of the Turnpike being the most impacted. Last but not least, the actually mid/upper trough will swing through Thu night into Fri which should finally push the better rain chances south and east by Fri evening. Aviation conditions will begin to deteriorate across Central KS tonight, as a cold front drops south out of North Central KS into Central KS.
The continuation of the fall transition pattern will occur on Tuesday as troughing will continue to dig into the Southwestern CONUS with height falls over the region.
Of note are enhanced areas of convection associated with two small tropical low pressure areas along a cyclonic shear zone.
Their reflections are in place at the surface, with an area of high pressure still to our north. Wind flow in the lower levels will still be easterly through the day, with the sea breeze trying to form but not making it much away from the coast. Easterly winds will remain in place today with high pressure to our north. A weak trough will approach the area tonight and then slowly turn northward through the middle part of the week.
236 PM MDT MON SEP 12 2016 20z surface analysis had 1030mb high over southern AB which has pushed cold front will into the southern Plains. Water vapour had positively tilted trough from central Canada into the northern Rockies. Temperatures will be cold enough for some flakes of snow over northeast WY and perhaps a light coating over the highest elevations of the Black Hills. Warm ground temperatures and ground cover should preclude frost with lows staying above freezing on the Plains given expected dew points.
430 PM EDT MON SEP 12 2016 Aviation section updated A cold front will bring chances for showers and thunderstorms mid week, then a stronger system will bring better chances for rain for the weekend.
The moist cyclonic flow with troughing extending into our area will set the stage for a wet and breezy day along our coast. This pattern will be supportive of intense rainfall rates with some of the high resolution models indicating localized rainfall amounts in excess of 6 inches over the next 24 to 36 hours.
1252 PM CDT MON SEP 12 2016 Cold front as of 08z just to the west of the forecast area across central South Dakota. As the cold front moves through, cooler air will take hold. Chances will be kept on the low side.
1120 AM MDT MON SEP 12 2016 Splitting upper trough will bring increasing clouds all areas, with increasing chances for precip over the western third today. High center lift from the splitting northern stream trough will support a band of rain showers into the western third of the fa, initially in a waning fashion as it shifts east. Cooling profiles will support a mix of snow on some portions of the ne WY plains, with a trans to all snow expected in the higher elevations of the northern Black Hills, esp above 5. Trough and associated lift will exit the region Tues, with a few lingering rain showers possible across the far nw.
We are moistening up the lower levels in the wake of the recent fropa with a chance for amendments to a terminal or two along I-20 this afternoon.
300 PM EDT MON SEP 12 2016 High pressure centered over the region will slowly move offshore Tuesday.
339 PM EDT MON SEP 12 2016 High pressure over eastern NY State will move off the New England Coast tonight.
612 PM EDT MON SEP 12 2016 High pressure will build south of the area through Tuesday.
438 PM EDT MON SEP 12 2016 High pressure building over the area this afternoon will pass offshore tonight into Tuesday night.
307 PM EDT MON SEP 12 2016 High pressure will remain over the area through tonight before moving east of the area on Tuesday.
/issued 453 AM CDT MON SEP 12 2016/ (Today and Tonight) As a weak ridge aloft slowly shifts east of our area, winds aloft will become south to southwest later today and tonight. Otherwise, partly cloudy skies and warmer temperatures are expected today with highs mostly in the lower 90s.
300 PM CDT MON SEP 12 2016 Cold front working across the forecast area now has pushed through quicker than expected and likely pushed the stronger T-storm risk a bit further southeast into the far southeast part of the forecast area. Solidly cooler air behind the front with temperatures in the 60s and scattered showers and isolated storms.
A cool afternoon with breezy northeast winds continues over the area today as the trough of low pressure remains stretched over the Northern Rockies. Widespread below freezing temperatures have prompted a freeze warning for much of western Montana. Higher elevation valleys near the Divide will cool into the low to mid 20s, which could damage above ground irrigation systems. The immediate vicinity around Flathead Lake, as well as the Camas Prairie of Idaho, will remain a bit warmer, and should stay well above freezing. Tuesday will be warmer than today by about ten degrees as the air mass moderates, with this warming trend continuing into mid- week.
This is out ahead of the surface cold front. Once it does, it will sit there until the stronger mid level trough swings through, as late as Tue night. 5 inches, which is on the high side for this time of year and will help contribute to the showery, cloudy conditions. Increasing clouds and weak warm air advection will keep temps moderated overnight, with lows in the lower 60s. Max temps on Tuesday will only be in the lower 70s from Madison to Sheboygan and north, but will have a chance to reach the upper 70s ahead of the front in southeast WI.
Upper level ridging will also build into southeastern MO and southern IL today. Rain chances are now expected to hold off until the surface cold front itself enters northeast MO late Tuesday afternoon. Similar scenarios of late have strongly preferred the higher MET MOS numbers, and will show confidence in this trend here as well, with max temps in the mid to upper 80s forecast for most locales, with 90F possible for parts of STL metro.
540 PM EDT MON SEP 12 2016 High pressure building over the area this afternoon will pass offshore tonight into Tuesday night.
354 PM CDT MON SEP 12 2016 Latest WV imagery and UA analysis shows a trough over the NW Gulf Coast with the deepest moisture residing generally along and east of a line fm the lower Atchafalaya River sw toward the upper TX coast. At the sfc, a weak ridge of high pres extends over the Ohio valley sw toward E TX, while a weak inverted trough was approaching the cntl Gulf fm the east. Conditions will be warm and muggy with overnight lows expected to reach the lower to middle 70s. The weak trough in the mid lvls will meander over the nrn Gulf the next few days.
131 PM EDT MON SEP 12 2016 High pressure building over the area this afternoon will pass offshore tonight into Tuesday.
Upper level ridging to keep most of the forecast area high and dry through Tuesday. Todays temperatures at mid afternoon are in the mid 80s to near 90 and should be about 3 degrees warmer than yesterdays for highs. It could be even a couple degrees warmer Tuesday than today. Lows a few degrees warmer from near 60 northeast to near 70 around Chattanooga. An upper-level ridge will remain established over the eastern Tennessee Valley and Southern Appalachian region through most of the work week. mainly along the high terrain.
Mostly clear skies across south central Texas this morning, but a little warmer and more humid than the past few mornings, which is an early indication of the changes coming this week.
High pressure will continue to move east and away from the region. By Tuesday night, a cold front will approach the region, as upper ridging contracts a bit.
349 PM CDT MON SEP 12 2016 (Tonight and Tuesday) An upper level low/trough across the Pacific Northwest will dive south and east toward the Great Basin region, through the next 24 hours. Overnight lows are forecast to be above seasonal normals, in the low 70s. The general solution hasn't changed much among models - an upper trough develops then persists, west of the Rockies, through the end of this week.
356 PM EDT MON SEP 12 2016 High pressure building over the area this afternoon will pass offshore tonight into Tuesday night.
540 PM EDT MON SEP 12 2016 High pressure centered over the region will slowly move offshore Tuesday.
Strong high pressure aloft over the Pacific Northwest will produce sunny and dry weather this week. The high pressure aloft may weaken enough this weekend to permit an arriving weak Pacific frontal system to bring a threat of rain. Heights will build slightly as an upper ridge moves inland, and high temperatures on Tuesday will be a few degrees higher--mostly 70s with some lower 80s over the south interior.
Temperatures are currently ranging from the low to mid 80s across most locations. Forecast highs in the low to mid 80s look on track. 03Z surface analysis showing high pressure parked across Lake Erie and this will be the dominant feature for the short term period. Otherwise cool start to the day with temperatures in the low to mid 50s for most. This high pressure will move east into the Mid Atlantic Coast through the day with more moisture return and warmer temps will be the story this afternoon. Given the mostly clear conditions again tonight would suspect another reasonable ridge valley temperature split will be in place by Tuesday morning.
Upper analysis and water vapor imagery show a broad upper level trough across the Gulf coast states. While upper trough is forecasted to shift east of the area on Tuesday. weak low level trough will move through the western Gulf. Temperatures will nearly to slight above normal with highs near 90 and lows in the lower to mid 70s.
318 PM EDT MON SEP 12 2016 Latest surface analysis over the eastern half of the United States shows weak high pressure off the NE coast with even weaker ridging on the east side of the Appalachians and into NE GA. Low pressure off the Florida coast looks to push NE through Tuesday but most of the associated shower and storm activity will remain south of the area.
Main wx issue/concern for today will be the arrival/timing of an approaching cold front.
Low temperatures will fall into the lower to mid 70s inland and upper 70s at the coast.
622 PM EDT MON SEP 12 2016 High pressure over eastern NY State will move off the New England Coast tonight.
141 PM EDT MON SEP 12 2016 High pressure moves away from the area through Tuesday.
322 PM CDT MON SEP 12 2016 Latest satellite and surface analysis show a weak low pressure system just SW of Mobile, AL. A warm front associated with this system is draped from southern MS through central AL up into east central GA.
The highest coverage areas are expected to be along the seabreeze in Florida panhandle and big bend as well as the western portions of the area closest to the weakening frontal boundary.
111 PM EDT MON SEP 12 2016 High pressure to the east of the area will continue to extend back across the region through Tuesday.
336 PM CDT MON SEP 12 2016 High pressure aloft and the return of low level moisture has resulted in a hot and somewhat humid day across North and Central Texas with 3 PM temperatures ranging from the upper 80s to the lower 90s. The warm and humid conditions will continue overnight as low level moisture increases in response to a deep trough of low pressure and cold front currently extending from the Northern Plains to the Central High Plains. The cold front will move into the Central Plains tonight but will stall well north of the Red River. The weather pattern will become more active the remainder of the week as an upper level trough deepens across the western U. However, storms may approach the Red River Tuesday night as the cold front moves into Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle.
127 PM MDT MON SEP 12 2016 Cold front has cleared the forecast area with northerly winds gradually diminishing and showers/thunderstorms exiting to the east. Temperatures on Tuesday will probably be held in check due to the clouds/showers so will continue with the cooler side of guidance.
554 PM CDT MON SEP 12 2016 Sunny skies dominated the afternoon for the Midwest as a whole as high pressure dominated the Great Lakes and much of the region. Warm temperatures continued with southerly surface winds with return flow behind the ridge axis to the east. Southwesterly flow will help to continue the warming aloft and at the surface through the overnight and through at least the first half of tomorrow as a cold front slowly approaches from the NW. The front is associated with a trof aloft stretching from the Hudson Bay back to the Central Pacific coast. The cold front is not exactly in parallel flow just yet.
/issued 345 AM CDT MON SEP 12 2016/ Not many changes to the current forecast, as the synoptic pattern and models continue to suggest progressively cooler and wetter conditions on tap thru the weekend. WV imagery shows the upper ridge extending from Texas east into the Atlantic, considerably flattened from 24 hours ago as an upper trough digs south along the west coast. Temps should top out unseasonably warm this afternoon in the lwr 90s many locations, before trending downward into the weekend as thicknesses/heights decrease and cloud cover increases w/the advancing trough.
Models continuing to build the upper ridge over the SE U. these next few days as an upper low develops/deepens out west and moves across the central Rockies. Long-range one has a ridge atop the region while the other is trying to draw a trof/shear axis in from the west.
150 PM EDT MON SEP 12 2016 A cold front will stall south of our region today as high pressure builds south through the Middle Atlantic states. This high pressure will linger into mid-week. Lows tonight in the lower 60s north to upper 60s south. Other than a slight chance of mainly afternoon and early evening showers and thunderstorms in the far SE Coastal Plain, dry conditions are expected as high pressure (near 1025 mb) will extend from southern New England southwest across VA and NC. The ridge axis should be over NC with plenty of sinking air. Expect above normal temperatures (mid/upper 80s) by mid-week, in advance of a progressive upper level trough /attendant cold front/tracking eastward through the Great Lakes into New England.
Continued WAA will allow temperatures to rise into the low to mid 80s. Today, an upper level trough will push across the Canadian Plains sagging an attendant cold front across the Upper Midwest to the Central Plains. Although storm intensity will weaken tonight, chances for storms will continue across the northern CWA the remainder of Monday night since the very slow moving cold front will not reach the CWA until Tuesday morning. A few storms will remain across the area as the cold front slowly sags into the CWA Tuesday morning.
306 PM CDT MON SEP 12 2016 A broad mid-level ridge exists over the southeast CONUS this afternoon, with a quasi-stationary upper-level cyclone trapped in the weak flow aloft, spinning near New Orleans. Dewpoints have crashed into the lower 50s across the northern portion of the forecast area, resulting in little/no diurnal Cu. Otherwise, expect dry weather overnight with temperatures likely several degrees warmer than the cool readings observed this morning. We also expect temperatures to be slightly warmer, with highs in the upper 80s and lower 90s. A fast moving northern stream wave will translate across the Great Lakes late tomorrow, pushing a weak cold front south into the region.
303 PM CDT MON SEP 12 2016 Water vapor satellite this afternoon showed a short wave trough over eastern Colorado that was moving to the northeast. At the surface, a cold front extended from northern Minnesota into western Kansas. The short wave trough will continue to move northeast and is expected to pass over the area late tonight through Tuesday morning. The low level moisture transport does not look all that strong and primarily through the area until late tonight when a split in this flow develops with part of the flow briefly becoming focused on the southern sections of the forecast area.
The source of nearly all major forecast concerns today is an upper level trough, which is currently digging south just east of the Cascade crest.
Temperatures will be a bit warmer than what we saw yesterday, with afternoon highs ranging from the mid 80s to around 90 degrees. Cool high pressure extends from the Mid-Atlantic into the Lower Mississippi Valley this morning. Lower humidity will prevail for one more day across the Mid-South as high pressure remains in control.
Temperatures are currently ranging from the low to mid 80s across most locations. Forecast highs in the low to mid 80s look on track. 03Z surface analysis showing high pressure parked across Lake Erie and this will be the dominant feature for the short term period. Otherwise cool start to the day with temperatures in the low to mid 50s for most. This high pressure will move east into the Mid Atlantic Coast through the day with more moisture return and warmer temps will be the story this afternoon. Given the mostly clear conditions again tonight would suspect another reasonable ridge valley temperature split will be in place by Tuesday morning. Upper ridging will remain parked across the southeastern U.
Departing upper ridge will provide dry and warm weather today.
Temperatures should be much warmer today as compared to the past several days. Highs should reach into the lower 60s northeast to near 70 degrees across the Mississippi Delta counties. A weak cold front will push through the region tonight with increased chances for showers and a few thunderstorms.
A secondary, stronger, upper trough will sweep through late this afternoon into tonight. This feature drives a cold front through the area with gusty northwest winds developing. Scattered rain or snow showers are expected too as colder air moves in with the trough. Cool high pressure then settles into the region on Saturday with decreasing clouds expected.
Temperatures did reach the upper 20s on the Plateau before the cloud cover arrived, and since the cloud cover has moved in, temps have climbed into the low 30s out east. Some concern with early precip with such dry air in the low levels would be the potential for some sleet before sunrise as wet bulb temps are below 0C in some areas. However, since temps are dry, its more likely that early precip will evaporate and moisten the low levels before rain really gets going, so for now just left in the rain mention this morning. Cold front looks to arrive and push through the mid state after midnight tonight into the morning Saturday as the upper trough slides just south of the Great Lakes.
A storm system is expected to move across the region during the middle of the new week, which will result in cooler temperatures, gusty winds and a chance of showers.
618 AM CDT Fri Mar 17 2017 Low level moisture continues to stream north into the Ozarks this morning as low pressure develops across southwestern Kansas. We suspect that the low levels will moisten over a deep enough layer to produce areas of drizzle from the predawn hours into this morning. A cold front will then move southeast into the Ozarks this afternoon likely reaching the I-44 corridor around 21 UTC. High temperatures today will actually be warmest behind that cold front across extreme southeastern Kansas and west-central Missouri due to clearing skies and cold air advection lagging. Highs should make the lower 70s over this area. In contrast, areas of south-central Missouri should only warm into the lower 60s due to persistent cloud cover. Large scale upper level ridging will then build over the area this weekend.
1043 AM EDT Fri Mar 17 2017 Cool high pressure over the area this morning will move off the southeast coast this afternoon. A cold front will bring a chance of brief showers Saturday.
1143 AM EDT Fri Mar 17 2017 Precipitation is expected today and Saturday as low pressure approaches and crosses the region. The exception to this will likely remain in some areas near/north of I-80 as well as the ridges, where snow may hang on longer. Upper low is still expected to approach the area by Saturday morning. Will maintain small chances of freezing rain near DUJ and along the ridges for now. The low is progged to drift E across the region Saturday. Snow is expected N of I 80 and in the ridges, though thicknesses/sounding profiles show boundary layer temps should warm enough S of I 80 for a changeover to mainly rain. Precip is expected to change back to snow Saturday night before tapering off as the low exits.