Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Clear skies across interior NorCal with very weak upper trough along the West Coast. Current temperatures are slightly cooler across much of the area compared to 24 hours ago and generally range from the 40s in the mountain valleys to the 60s to mid 70s in the Central Valley.
Heat index readings will also be above 100 degrees late today in these locations but even when following the higher dew point forecast from the NAM and NMM today the heat index readings still remain below heat advisory criteria. The higher heat index readings today will be in Ellis, Trego, Ness, and Rush county.
a degree or two cooler in most cases. /issued 322 PM CDT Mon Jul 10 2017/ High pressure both surface and aloft will remain in place over the Mid South through Tuesday. Temperatures will again climb into the lower to middle 90s with dewpoints remaining mainly in the 60s, which should keep heat indices below 100 degrees.
A cold front will approach and then move through the region late this week, bringing additional thunderstorm chances. Thunderstorms developed ahead of a wave of low pressure, at the nose of a low level jet, in the very moist airmass where moderate instby existed. Tonights lows will be in the lower 70s. With high temperatures from near 90 north to the lower 90s south, heat indices will reach in the middle 90s in many locations. Thunderstorms will be possible Wednesday night ahead of a cold front approaching from the northwest.
/issued 118 PM CDT Mon Jul 10 2017/ The upper ridge centered over the 4 Corners region this morning will spread east to the Atlantic over the next couple of days. However by the weekend the ridge will become centered over the west once again which could allow disturbances to track down into the area on northerly flow. At the surface S to SE flow will continue for the foreseeable future keeping the low levels moist. Dewpts range from the lower 60s in the east to the upper 40s in the higher elevations of the west. Have only had a few random echos on radar today but satellite shows CU developing across the mountains so will go ahead and add isolated pops to the higher elevations into this evening.
A cold front will usher in cooler and drier air on Wednesday, with high temperatures mainly in the 70s. Should see a weak cold front shift from NW-SE across the area during Tuesday night, with diminishing chances for showers, and advection of some lower dewpoints during the overnight hrs.
SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday): A flattening 500mb ridge is expected to move into the central US while a weak inverted trough over eastern Mexico continues to bring in surges of moisture across the region. The 00Z GFS indicates a fairly significant layer of dry air in the lower to mid levels through the period, which could cap off rain chances.
218 AM MDT Tue Jul 11 2017 Imagery shows broad low amplitude trof/ridge/trof across the CONUS with current ridge axis located from ND south through the Central Plains. Split relatively weak jets positioned across WY and another slightly stronger jet over MT with a minor SW trof moving with the flow across MT and far nrn WY. SFC has low pressure peppered across much of the wrn CONUS with what looks like the beginning of the summer monsoon beginning to show (SFC and aloft). "Closer to home", low pressure centered over scntrl Canada has associated fronts stretching to the nw corner of WY (cold) and the other (warm) draped swd through the Dakotas and into NE.
Wednesday will be a bit cooler than Tuesday, with the surface front bisecting the area once again.
Increased temperatures for tonight, especially across the southern half of the forecast area, as a warm front slowly moves across the region overnight into Tuesday. Despite dewpoints rising into the low 60s (mid 60s east) relative humidity values west of the James River Valley will fall into the 20 to 30 percent range. The grassland fire danger index will still likely be in the high range for areas along and west of the Missouri River.
High pressure will maintain itself across the eastern CONUS today, with surface winds generally from the south. Meanwhile, upper level ridging will continue to build westward across the area. As stated in previous discussions, the western periphery of the subtropical ridge will move into the area overnight, with southerly flow returning through the vertical column. This will begin the advection of deep layer moisture, as well as warmer temperatures. Overnight lows will be a couple of degrees warmer than previous nights, given the warmer dewpoints that will be advected northward. So, despite another mostly clear night, temperatures will fall into the lower 70s across much of the area. The TN Valley will remain on the western periphery of the subtropical ridge through the remainder of the short term, with an abundance of moisture continuing to advect northward.
Moisture will remain in place across southern and central Utah today then this area also starts to dry Wednesday as high pressure rebuilds across the region. The high will strengthen through the end of the week.
350 AM MDT Tue Jul 11 2017 Current surface analysis shows warm front over central SD, with cool front from western ND to northwest WY and southern ID. Upper level analysis shows near zonal flow now over the area as high pressure weakens over the southern Plains and moves eastward. Wednesday will be a little cooler behind the front, with highs in the mid 80s to lower 90s. The heat will return as the ridge and high pressure rebuild over the intermountain west and the Rockies.
310 AM PDT Tue Jul 11 2017 Broad southwesterly flow developing aloft behind the departing ridge of high pressure will provide continued cooling and drying through Wednesday. The ridge of high pressure will build back into the Great Basin by this weekend, supporting well above normal temperatures and a possible return of monsoon moisture. no eddy and as a result the low clouds have been slow to develop and have no made much inland progress at all.
Temperatures today will reach into the low 90s or upper 80s for non-mountainous locations, with otherwise comfortable 70 to 80 degree high temperatures today.
With high pressure remaining the dominate weather feature, dry conditions will continue for the next 24 hours. Temperatures, for the next 24 hours, will again be very close to what we expect for July; highs today will mainly range in the lower to mid 90s, and lows tonight will mainly range from around 70 to the mid 70s.
High pressure over the Atlantic will continue to extend across the region through the next several days, with light winds and seas expected with no headlines.
Moisture will gradually move into the region as mid level low pressure moves into northwestern Mexico.
234 AM EDT Tue Jul 11 2017 A dying cold front will approach from the Great Lakes this evening, then stall out just north of Pennsylvania for the next few days. Much higher humidity, along with cloud cover, will result in a warmer night than recent ones, with min temps mostly between 65-70F. Dewpoints will be pushing 70F in most places Tuesday, likely resulting in heat indices reaching as high as the mid 90s across the Lower Susq Valley.
320 AM CDT Tue Jul 11 2017 strong w-e upper level ridging will prevail over the next 2 afternoons. Thus, I look for temps to be 1 to 2 degrees warmer than yesterday.
A cold front will sag south towards the area later in the week bringing a return of showers and thunderstorms. Lows are forecast to be in the lower 70s. Tuesday night will once again have lows in the lower 70s. A vertically stacked upper level low will be located southeast of the Hudson Bay Wednesday morning with a warm front pulling north into Michigan. Some rain will be possible Wednesday morning ahead of the warm front, but most of the day should be dry Wednesday as lower PWAT air works into the area (PWAT ~ 1. Overall this would support high temperatures in the lower 90s.
Muggy lows overnight in the lower 70s look on track and no changes there. Return of south-southwesterly winds have allowed temperatures to rise into the upper 80s at most locations with a few readings over 90 degrees, while dewpoints in the low to mid 70s are predominant. The warmest day of the week should be Wednesday as the frontal boundary lifts well north of the area resulting in high temps in the low to mid 90s across the area, with heat index around 100 with perhaps a few spots of 105.
Winds will become light and terrain driven after 19z but look to increase again from the west Tue evening/night with the passage of another dry cold front.
Today through Wednesday Nevada is currently under a flat ridge, with areas just north of the state under the influence of troffing from a low off the BC Coast.
Deep layer ridging from the Atlantic will extend across northern Fl and over the Gulf of Mexico today.
Do expect high temperatures to increase a few degrees each day as an upper level ridge slowly builds westward this weekend.
314 AM CDT Tue Jul 11 2017 Lee troughing will lead to gusty south-southwesterly low-level winds, and a building low-level thermal ridge across the forecast area today into at least Wednesday.
At any rate will see showers and tstms redevelop over the higher terrain by early aftn with outflow boundaries triggering additional activity by mid to late aftn along the front range urban corridor. Meanwhile the models have a disturbance moving across the higher terrain overnight thus there could be some additional shower activity over the higher terrain through midnight.
The system will bring a cold front south across the forecast area with cooler temperatures and some temporary relief from the heat. Upper ridge will build back into Montana on Wednesday but cooler airmass will linger over the northeast part of the state one more day.
After reaching the 88 to 93 degree range in many locations with sunny skies earlier today, temperatures have cooled mainly into the lower 80s. The 5h sheared vorticity lobe will remain across central MS-AL-GA thru Tuesday as a weak sfc trof-8h wave tracks northward into the same general area during the afternoon.
A near zonal flow is over the area, though models anticipated this flow becoming more southwesterly as a weak trough approaches eastern Oregon. Cooler temperatures expected today, with the valleys expected to be into the low 90s. High pressure works to reamplify on Wednesday, with a returning southwest flow.
Another Typical Hot and Humid Day Expected Across the Missouri It is a quiet morning across the region with a flat upper ridge of high pressure over the region. On the satellite and water vapor imagery, you can clearly see a "ring of fire" or convection around the upper level ridge from the Four Corners Region across the Cornbelt into the Ohio River Valley Region. We will add another degree to the high temperatures with lower to middle 90s common around the area.
Upper level high pressure will build back into the region today and prevail into Thursday, resulting in dry conditions and much above normal temperatures. Surface pressure gradients remain reasonably tight along east slopes of the Rockies as low pressure will be situated over southern Canada with high pressure across southwest Wyoming. Did expand coverage area some, but kept pops on the low side.
222 PM CST Wed Nov 22 2017 High pressure will build into the region tonight and dominate our weather through Thanksgiving. Tonight is expected to be one of the coldest nights of the season given dew points in the lower to middle 20s, calm winds and clear skies.
1216 PM EST Wed Nov 22 2017 A cold front and low pressure system east of the mid Atlantic coast will move east of New England by this evening.
1213 PM EST Wed Nov 22 2017 A weak area of low pressure off the NC coast this morning will accelerate northeastward off the Mid-Atlantic today. Meanwhile, a cold front will move through the area later this morning.
Cross-sections show the lowest 7kft is quite dry during the best forcing, with saturation lowering to a min of about 5kft toward sunrise.
105 PM EST Wed Nov 22 2017 High pressure will begin to move into the Ohio Valley today, bringing cool and dry conditions. Dry weather will continue through the end of the week, as temperatures slowly increase as the high moves off to the east. The clear skies and light winds should allow for min temps to drop into the middle 20s on Thursday morning, followed by a slight increase in max temps on Thursday as opposed to Wednesday -- values in the lower to middle 40s.
326 PM CST Wed Nov 22 2017 A massive upper level ridge of high pressure continues to dominate the weather pattern across the region. This will continue Thanksgiving with highs even a few degrees warmer than today. In fact, near record highs expected in the lower 70s at some locations.
249 PM CST Wed Nov 22 2017 Latest water vapor imagery shows a fairly amplified upper ridge over much of the western CONUS, with a trough over the eastern CONUS. At the surface, high pressure continues to build southeastward into the region, with northerly flow across the area. Under this dome of high pressure, clear skies are expected to persist across the TN Valley through the remainder of the day and into the overnight hours. Thanksgiving day should be fairly pleasant, though on the cooler side, as high pressure persists across the region.
Northerly flow persists behind a surface cold front that moved through the TN Valley early this morning. Winds will increase just a bit over the next couple of hours, as the pressure gradient increases in response to high pressure building into the region. Despite the clear skies, strong cold air advection will prevent much of a warm up today as highs struggle to make it out of the lower 50s.
200 PM EST Wed Nov 22 2017 A weak area of low pressure off the NC coast this morning will accelerate northeastward off the Mid-Atlantic today. Meanwhile, a cold front will move through the area later this morning.
High pressure will move in over the state with light winds expected and mostly clear sky conditions. High pressure will move over the state by this evening. Today Through Thursday Night The cold front has pushed south through the state as of early this morning. This drier air will continue to filter into the state this Wed as high pressure to the north moves south into the region.
131 PM EST Wed Nov 22 2017 A cold front will continue to move away from the area this afternoon. High pressure will build into the area tonight and last half of the week.
1128 AM CST Wed Nov 22 2017 No significant changes with the 18Z TAFS as high pressure pre- vails. Look for highs today in the low to mid-60s and minimum temperatures tonight mid-30s to low- 40s.
1250 PM EST Wed Nov 22 2017 A cold front crosses the area from west to east through this afternoon. High pressure builds in Wednesday night through the end of the week.
112 PM CST Wed Nov 22 2017 Ridge west/Trof east pattern will be flattening to a more zonal westerly pattern as we finish out this Thanksgiving Holiday week.
1007 AM MST Wed Nov 22 2017 Mid and high level moisture moving through an amplified ridge of high pressure over the western U. Snow accumulations in the higher reaches is expected to be less than 2 inches and localized. Showers diminish late in the afternoon as the ridge axis shifts eastward over the area tonight. The ridge will remain 'dirty' with cirrus continuing to sweep overhead, especially across the north. The ridge is flattened on Thanksgiving Day, but this isn't expected to have much impact on sensible weather across the area with dry, partly sunny and mild conditions persisting. Little change to forecast thinking through the weekend as high pressure remains firmly in control.
Upper level ridge will continue to amplify northward today across the Intermountain West. A southwesterly flow aloft will dominate the short term forecast as a ridge continues to build over southern California. Precipitation continues to spread across the region under a moist southwesterly flow aloft associated with a deep, subtropical moisture tap; rain showers will persist north of a Burns-Boise- Featherville line through late morning, finally shrinking north this afternoon as the ridge builds over the region. This will temporarily suppress the ridge, allowing for showers to spread across the east-central Oregon and west-central Idaho mountains once again Thursday afternoon.
201 PM MST Wed Nov 22 2017 Large upper ridge centered near the Four Corners will result in warm and dry conditions. High cirrus clouds will continue to come over the top of the ridge resulting in partly sunny skies.
1134 AM EST Wed Nov 22 2017 An area of low pressure will shift NE offshore the NC coast today.
A strong ridge of high pressure will remain in place across the region through the end of the week and beyond. The weather feature of note in the short term will be ridge valley temperature differences tonight and tomorrow night. The more well defined split should occur tonight, with valleys bottoming out in the lower 20s, with the surrounding ridges coming it in the mid 20s. Ridging will remain in control across the Desert Southwest, with troughing in the East, as well as across the Pacific Northwest.
250 PM CST Wed Nov 22 2017 A weak area of low pressure located over north central South Dakota/south central North Dakota will continue to propagate southeast through the evening into Minnesota tonight. This will be followed by a small area of high pressure. Under this high, winds go light and while we have mild air already in place, we also have higher than average dewpoints. Mixed temperatures from 900mb in the James valley are into the low 60s, and 850mb are closer to 70s our west. The pattern has, overall, favored a positive PNA patter with west conus ridge, and east conus trof.
231 PM MST Wed Nov 22 2017 Quiet weather overnight through Thanksgiving Day with unseasonably warm temperatures as a large upper ridge holds just west of the Rocky mtn chain.
Better precipitation chances arrive overnight as a cold front approaches.
1021 AM MST Wed Nov 22 2017 Water vapor shows highly amplified upper ridge over the western CONUS, with ridge topping wave over southern Canada pushing into the Northern Plains. At the surface, lee trof is advancing into eastern MT/WY. Thermal profiles along with downslope flow will push temps well into the 60s today, slightly cooler in the Hills. On Thanksgiving, upper ridge axis will move into the Northern Plains with even warmer temps expected, 70s on the SD plains.
A ridge of high pressure remains sprawled across the area early this morning. This ridge is progged to translate south and east allowing southerly winds to return to much of central and portions of south central KS this afternoon. This will allow temperatures to moderate across central KS with highs climbing into the upper 50s/around 60 while much of southeast KS struggles to mix out with temperatures remaining in the low to mid 40s.
The cold front that moved through Middle TN last night was located well to our south this morning. The front left us with light north winds and 16Z temps that were 10 to 15 degrees cooler than 24 hours ago.
300 PM MST Wed Nov 22 2017 An upper level high will be centered just west of the northern Baja California coast tonight and Thu, and the upper ridge will extend into the Great Basin. This will leave CO on the front side of the ridge resulting in northwest flow aloft and some high level clouds. Highs will range from the upper 60s over El Paso county to the lower 70s acrs the rest of southeast CO, which are near record levels.
454 PM EST Wed Nov 22 2017 A cold front will continue to move away from the area this afternoon. High pressure will build into the area tonight and last half of the week.
1135 AM CST Wed Nov 22 2017 Surface map early this Wednesday morning has high pressure centered over eastern KS/NE with ridge extending northward into the Upper Mississippi River Valley Region. The area/ridge of high pressure will drift southeast of the region today as a wave of low pressure drops southeast out of Alberta into the Northern Plains. The wave of low pressure moves southeast through the area tonight, spreading the likelihood of some light snow across north central WI, including Clark Taylor counties. Thanksgiving Day looks fantastic as a weak ridge of high pressure drifts across the region.
High pressure continues to build in from the northwest. low pressure continues to move out of the Gulf of Mexico and cross the Florida peninsula.
358 PM EST Wed Nov 22 2017 A cold front will continue to move away from the area this afternoon. High pressure will build into the area tonight and last half of the week.
/issued 358 AM CST Wed Nov 22 2017/ (Today and Tonight) With dry cool air in place over the region, temperatures today and tonight will be cooler than seasonal normals. Lows tonight mainly in the 35 to 40 range will dominate; however, some low-lying areas may have lows closer to freezing.
353 PM EST Wed Nov 22 2017 High pressure in the southern Ohio Valley will move east late tonight and Thursday.
High pressure ridging will continue to hold over the forecast area through Thursday. Pressure gradients have slackened a bit today as was expected but will tighten again tonight and especially Thursday afternoon and evening along the east slopes of the Rockies as low pressure will be situated over southern Canada with high pressure across southwest Wyoming.
309 PM CST Wed Nov 22 2017 Weak clipper system was located in the northern Plains with a warm front located in the central Dakotas.
1242 PM CST Wed Nov 22 2017 1242 PM CST High pressure will move east of the area tonight with light southerly winds developing.
Strong Cold Front Thanksgiving Evening. Rainfall rates could become heavy at times especially over the higher terrain where rain amounts of 1 to 1. Although the rain could be heavy at times, flooding is not expected due to the high elevation snow helping to absorb the moisture.
The cold front that moved through Middle TN last night was located well to our south this morning. The front left us with light north winds and 16Z temps that were 10 to 15 degrees cooler than 24 hours ago. In the wake of last night's dry cold frontal passage, occasionally gusty north winds will continue at all sites this afternoon before gradually decreasing by sunset.
An upper ridge over the western states and an upper trough from the Great Lakes to the Gulf of Mexico will keep Colorado under north-northwesterly flow. Some moisture in the flow will continue to bring light orographic snow to the high country today, with accumulations less than an inch. Northwesterly winds of 30-45 mph in the high country will become a little more widespread. With the warm advection in place, some high clouds remaining overnight and a slight gusty downslope wind pattern overnight, minimum temperatures will likely be above freezing across the plains. The high pressure center over the Pacific will deepen slightly and continue to bring strong NW flow over the region. This will aid in the slight increase of temperatures over the Metro bringing highs into the low 70s.
A strong ridge of high pressure will remain in place across the region through the end of the week and beyond. The weather feature of note in the short term will be ridge/valley temperature differences tonight and tomorrow night. The more well defined split should occur tonight, with valleys bottoming out in the lower 20s, with the surrounding ridges coming it in the mid 20s. The significant features during the period consist of two cold fronts.
Surface analysis shows a cold front across the northeast zones and drifting south this afternoon. This airmass overriding the cooler air at the surface looks to create fog or low clouds over the northern and some central zones.
High pressure will continue to strengthen across the region today, then remain in place through the rest of the week. Mid level ridging continues to dominate the intermountain region this morning allowing dry conditions and anomalously warm temps locally.
208 PM EST Wed Nov 22 2017 An upper trough axis is passing east of the region at this time.
130 PM PST Wed Nov 22 2017 High pressure aloft combined with weak offshore surface flow will bring another day of record setting temperatures Thanksgiving Day.