Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Currently, the Tri-State area is under the influence of an upper level ridge. Highs will be in the mid to upper 70s today and the low to mid 80s tomorrow. Lows overnight tonight and tomorrow will be ranging in the lower 40s to lower 60s.
1143 AM EDT Sun Sep 22 2019 An area of high pressure centered over the Outer Banks area will drift east and allow a cold front to approach Pennsylvania from the Ohio Valley.
142 PM EDT Sun Sep 22 2019 High pressure at the surface and aloft will dominate through Monday.
Coupled with high pressure aloft, temperatures continue to be about 5 degrees warmer than normal for this time of year. Further west, high pressure at the surface and aloft will become increasing dominate, inhibiting most development over Central and South Central Louisiana.
Delicate plants are at risk for freezing and exposed pipes are at risk to freeze overnight, so take precautions. The low temperatures overnight are expected to be in the 40s over the plains, the upper 20s and low 30s over the mountain valleys, and the teens to 20s over the mountains. High temperatures are expected to be in the mid 80s over the plains, the low to mid 70s over the mountain valleys, and the 40s to 50s over the mountains.
This rain is occurring in association with a short wave trough and beneath the right-entrance region of an upper level jet streak. Meanwhile, scattered thunderstorms have developed in association with an approaching cold front across eastern Kansas. Convection along that cold front should fill in a bit and track into western Missouri early this evening and then impact much of the area from later this evening into the early overnight period. The prospects then look good for fog late tonight and early Monday morning as skies begin to clear behind that passing cold front.
303 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2019 Early this afternoon, a surface cold front extended from central IA into northwest MO, just west of Kansas City. The WAA/low level jet batch of showers should progress through the forecast area through early this evening, with the showers from the cold front to try to fill in the gaps that are developing. Dry weather is then expected on Monday and Monday night as high pressure dominates.
However, temps are running about 1-4 degrees warmer than 24 hrs ago beneath this cloud shield, but strong insolation as the cigs begin to scatter out by afternoon should result in another day of above normal temps areawide.
A cold front will cool the Northeast Plains by about 10 degrees today and bring a brief period of gusty north winds.
Incoming upper trough will move into eastern Oregon this afternoon and southwest Idaho this evening. The trough is splitting as it moves in, with a majority of it heading toward Arizona, meaning that the precip threat from the trough rapidly decreases early Monday, leaving the area with gusty northwest winds on Monday afternoon, and 5-7 degrees cooler than today.
Much cooler air will filter into western Kansas through tonight in wake of this morning's cold frontal passage. A cool dome of high pressure will slide east into the Mid Mississippi valley on Monday as westerly downslope flow across the Central Rockies improves in response to a deepening upper level trough moving into the Southwest United States.
The ridge axis is sitting just off to our east today and by looking at the satellite imagery, you can see the anti-cyclonic flow around it in the low level cumulus field. You can also see a trough digging across the northern Plains dragging a frontal boundary through the central part of the country currently. As this trough moves eastward tonight and Monday and the boundary runs into the deep subtropical ridge over the Southeast, the boundary will become east-west oriented and stretch out over the Mid-South. As the main forcing remains with the trough moving eastward, there will be a limited amount of showers and storms re-develop along the boundary on Monday. High temps will again be in the low 90s on Monday with winds out of the south-southwest. Upper ridging will still have a large influence over our weather.
Dry weather is forecast with lows in the mid-upper 60s across the interior to around 70 along the Space and Treasure Coast, with warmer readings along the Atlantic beaches.
At 8 PM MDT the southern end of showers was in the Lower Treasure Valley and retreating north. Those showers should decrease from north to south overnight as an incoming upper trough closes off a low in Nevada later tonight. Clearing, cooler, and locally breezy in all areas Monday as the main trough exits east.
618 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2019 A couple isolated showers have popped up over the past hour or two across central SD with the main upper low circulation still over the Dakotas. On Monday, upper level ridging builds across the northern plains, with 850 mb temps rising through the teens Celsius. With the warm air advection and warmer air mass in place, we'll see a bump in temperatures as highs reach the mid 70s to around 80 degrees for most locations.
The cold front progressing through the region will play into how morning CIGs play out. Upper ridging will dominate from late tomorrow onward into late week, but that will not fully squash rain chances as moisture will still be available if disturbances move across the upper ridge. Many of these disturbances could come from the upper low progged to move from the Pacific Northwest to southern CA/AZ.
520 PM MDT Sun Sep 22 2019 A Pacific trough moving ashore over the Pacific northwest is expected to deepen as it moves over the western Great Basin tonight. As this occurs, the ridge axis over the region will move east of the Divide and southwest flow aloft develops. Still, strong radiational cooling will cause lows to be colder than normal and freezing temperatures are expected across lower elevations of northwest Colorado. The trough deepens further on Monday with a closed low forming over Arizona. The low continues to transit southward to Mexico Monday night taking any precipitation chances and cloud cover with it.
650 PM EDT Sun Sep 22 2019 An area of high pressure centered off the Mid Atlantic coast will drift east and allow a cold front to approach Pennsylvania from the Ohio Valley.
That said, there is significant uncertainty whether the low level moisture will reach the area in time and there is not good agreement in the guidance.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 63 88 64 86 / 0 20 20 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 61 85 62 83 / 0 20 20 0 Oak Ridge, TN 62 84 62 84 / 0 20 20 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 57 82 58 80 / 0 30 30 0.
It looks like it will be at least midday Monday before anything but the thinnest cirrus arrives, so after a cool start to the day, temperatures should climb to 5-10 degrees warmer than today.
Skies remain mostly clear this hour, despite a cold front approaching Middle Tennessee from the northwest. So we'll keep the low chance POP's for late tonight.
654 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2019 Skies slowly clearing across eastern ND with NW MN seeing clouds persist into the evening as upper low continues to provide some midlevel lift.
The ridge axis is sitting just off to our east today and by looking at the satellite imagery, you can see the anti-cyclonic flow around it in the low level cumulus field. You can also see a trough digging across the northern Plains dragging a frontal boundary through the central part of the country currently. As this trough moves eastward tonight and Monday and the boundary runs into the deep subtropical ridge over the Southeast, the boundary will become east-west oriented and stretch out over the Mid-South. As the main forcing remains with the trough moving eastward, there will be a limited amount of showers and storms re- develop along the boundary on Monday. High temps will again be in the low 90s on Monday with winds out of the south-southwest. Upper ridging will still have a large influence over our weather.
802 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2019 Minor update to further limit the low mentionable PoPs to the far southeast zones where the northern fringe of a thinning plume of deep moisture still resides. The cold front progressing through the region will play into how morning CIGs play out. Upper ridging will dominate from late tomorrow onward into late week, but that will not fully squash rain chances as moisture will still be available if disturbances move across the upper ridge. Many of these disturbances could come from the upper low progged to move from the Pacific Northwest to southern CA/AZ.
/issued 218 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2019/ A much quieter day across the region today as the upper trough responsible for yesterday and last night's heavy rainfall has progressed eastward into the Plains and dampened with southward extent. Monday, another trough will begin digging southward across the Great Basin, resulting in a brief period of weak ridging over West Texas and Southeast New Mexico between this trough and the departing trough.
520 PM MDT Sun Sep 22 2019 Water vapor shows upper low over the Northern Plains, ridge over the Northern Rockies, and next trof moving onshore the Pac NW. A few lingering showers across the CWFA early this afternoon in associated with upper trof. Dry and much warmer weather is expected for Monday with upper ridge building overhead.
756 PM EDT Sun Sep 22 2019 High pressure at the surface and aloft will dominate through Monday.
802 PM EDT Sun Sep 22 2019 High pressure will prevail early this week.
945 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2019 Cold front is finally making some headway to the south and will continue to make progress overnight to around I-40 corridor by 12z Monday. Cooler and drier air will eventually filter into northern sections by morning, where it will actually feel vaguely fall-like for a change by morning. Scattered storms ongoing across NE OK along advancing cold front with lighter showers continuing across SE OK through NW AR. Various CAM solutions suggest a modest uptick by late afternoon/early evening convection as the cold front nears, with a few strong/severe storms possible given the rather strong layered flow. The best chances of convection will shift to far southeast OK later tonight into Monday morning, with cooler/drier air briefly moving into northeast OK/northwest AR.
714 PM EDT Sun Sep 22 2019 Temperatures will gradually warm through mid week, as Tropical Storm Jerry passes well offshore and a weak cold front drops into the Carolinas.
951 PM EDT Sun Sep 22 2019 Temperatures will gradually warm through mid week, as Tropical Storm Jerry passes well offshore and a weak cold front drops into the Carolinas.
1018 PM EDT Sun Sep 22 2019 Currently - A robust continental high pressure system is aligned over the southeastern United States this evening. Short Term Update - The ridge to our north will gradually weaken. High pressure over the southeastern United States is maintaining a very tight pressure gradient, resulting in fresh to strong northeast breezes across Keys waters. This high will gradually weaken overnight.
1005 PM EDT Sun Sep 22 2019 High pressure will prevail early this week.
352 PM MDT Sun Sep 22 2019 A Pacific trough moving ashore over the Pacific northwest is expected to deepen as it moves over the western Great Basin tonight. As this occurs, the ridge axis over the region will move east of the Divide and southwest flow aloft develops. Still, strong radiational cooling will cause lows to be colder than normal and freezing temperatures are expected across lower elevations of northwest Colorado. The trough deepens further on Monday with a closed low forming over Arizona. The low continues to transit southward to Mexico Monday night taking any precipitation chances and cloud cover with it.
a cold front to the NW will gradually start dropping SE into the state for Mon.
702 PM EDT Sun Sep 22 2019 High pressure at the surface and aloft will dominate through Monday.
A couple isolated showers have popped up over the past hour or two across central SD with the main upper low circulation still over the Dakotas. On Monday, upper level ridging builds across the northern plains, with 850 mb temps rising through the teens Celsius. With the warm air advection and warmer air mass in place, we'll see a bump in temperatures as highs reach the mid 70s to around 80 degrees for most locations.
821 PM EDT Sun Sep 22 2019 A very dry subsident airmass over the region associated with deep layered ridging will keep pleasant dry weather across the entire forecast area the remainder of tonight with skies becoming mostly clear. High pressure along the mid Atlantic coast will maintain an elevated northeast to easterly wind flow over the Gulf waters the remainder of tonight with Cautionary headlines remaining in place for the near and offshore waters.
A cold front is moving out of northern Missouri and into central Missouri. Temperatures this hour ranged from the mid 80s to the low 90s.
Scattered storms ongoing across NE OK along advancing cold front with lighter showers continuing across SE OK through NW AR. Various CAM solutions suggest a modest uptick by late afternoon/early evening convection as the cold front nears, with a few strong/severe storms possible given the rather strong layered flow. The best chances of convection will shift to far southeast OK later tonight into Monday morning, with cooler/drier air briefly moving into northeast OK/northwest AR.
919 PM EDT Sun Sep 22 2019 An area of high pressure centered off the Mid Atlantic coast will drift east and allow a cold front to approach Pennsylvania from the Ohio Valley.
Light westerlies beginning to pick up as the southward upper high suppression continues.
600 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2019 This afternoon a cold front is moving through the CWA and as of 3PM is generally along the I-35 corridor. High pressure will remain over the area through the day Monday with very comfortable and seasonable highs in the mid 70s.
The next trough of low pressure will begin to work its way into the region late today and Monday providing an increase in southwest winds in Inyo and western San Bernardino counties this afternoon.
523 PM MDT Sun Sep 22 2019 A quiet evening & overnight period ahead w/ short wave ridging now in place across southeast WY and the western NE Panhandle.
325 AM EDT Mon Sep 23 2019 High pressure will prevail today. A weak cold front will move into the area Tuesday and then slowly dissipate through mid week. High pressure will then return this weekend. In addition, a cold front was entering the Ohio River Valley, stretching back west across the Southern Great Plains. The sfc pattern across the CWA will be dominated by high pressure, with the center sliding over FL by this afternoon. A weak cold front looks to push into the area Tuesday before stalling and dissipating. Meanwhile, an upper trough will be pushing offshore helping to keep tropical cyclone Jerry well off the coast.
Meanwhile in the upper levels, we see a closed low progressing into the Great Lakes. This will progress east today and help sweep a cold front across the Ohio and Tennessee valley today. We have seen showers develop develop ahead of the cold front likely aided by a low level jet. Tuesday will be a nice more fall like day as high pressure crests across the Ohio Valley. This will be as a cold front pushes across the region bringing the potential for some showers. The soundings show this lower stratus mixing out as dry air filters in behind the front, but this may be slower to take place in the valleys.
1156 PM EDT Sun Sep 22 2019 A cold front will bring scattered showers to the region Monday. This wave, and a prefrontal trough, should spread scattered showers across the region this morning. The main upper trough, and its associated cold front, are progged to approach and cross the region Monday afternoon.
254 AM EDT Mon Sep 23 2019 The center of an expansive mid-upper anticyclone will migrate from the Gulf Coast States into the eastern Gulf of Mexico, as an upper low progresses towards the eastern Bahamas. With deep layer ridging prevailing across the region look for dry and subsident conditions with only a small chance for a shower late in the period.
1145 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2019 Early this afternoon, a surface cold front extended from central IA into northwest MO, just west of Kansas City. The WAA/low level jet batch of showers should progress through the forecast area through early this evening, with the showers from the cold front to try to fill in the gaps that are developing. Dry weather is then expected on Monday and Monday night as high pressure dominates.
335 AM EDT Mon Sep 23 2019 A weakening cold front/trough will move through the area late tonight. General high pressure and even warmer conditions are expected for the remainder of the week. High pressure along with dry air will remain over the region today with a weakening cold front moving into the area tonight. With upper level ridging over the eastern US afternoon high temperatures will again be in the upper 80s to low 90s with low temperatures tonight in the mid 60s. The upper ridge will shift to the south as upper trough moves to New England and the Mid Atlantic coast. Weak front/trough should set up just south of the area with limited moisture. So favor warmer temperature guidance/dry forecast and expect well above normal temperatures. High temperatures mainly in the low 90s and lows in the 60s.
Much cooler air will filter into western Kansas through tonight in wake of this morning's cold frontal passage. Thunderstorm chances pick back up early Tuesday as medium range models continue to indicate an upper level trough of low pressure closing off as it digs southeast across the Desert Southwest, in turn setting up an increasingly difluent southwest flow aloft across the Western High Plains. Near the surface, prevailing southerlies will draw ample moisture into central and portions of southwest Kansas ahead of an advancing lee side trough with surface dewpoints climbing well into the 60s(F), increasing instability.
The latest radar was showing the showers slowly decreasing with the higher concentration over the eastern forecast area. A long wave trough responsible for the pcpn and isolated tsra earlier. Minor changes were done to sky and pops and temps that are forecast to fall into the 50s with 40s and some 30s in the higher elevations.
317 AM EDT Mon Sep 23 2019 A cold front will bring scattered showers to the region today.
156 AM EDT Mon Sep 23 2019 A cold front will bring a chance of showers and a few thunderstorms to the area today.
1031 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2019 This afternoon a cold front is moving through the CWA and as of 3PM is generally along the I-35 corridor. High pressure will remain over the area through the day Monday with very comfortable and seasonable highs in the mid 70s. Monday night high pressure shifts eastward and WAA returns to the area on Tuesday with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s.
123 AM EDT Mon Sep 23 2019 High pressure will prevail early this week. A weak cold front will move into the area Tuesday and slowly dissipate. Dry high pressure will prevail and leave the forecast dry with mostly clear skies. Lows will likely be a couple of degrees warmer, but still cool with good radiational cooling conditions. Could still see a couple of upper 50s well inland, but expect most locations to bottom out in the low 60s. Subtropical high pressure will persist into Monday before slowly weakening as a powerful upper low propagates east across the Great Lakes and into New England. Marine-based stratocumulus will gradually shift offshore Monday as the low-level flow gradually loses its easterly influence, which will linger through the week.
High pressure situated over the mid-Atlantic states is producing light easterly winds around 5 knots on its southern periphery. A deep layer ridge continues to shift west of the area, which will allow a weak boundary to approach from the north on Tuesday. Temperatures will range from the low to mid 90s on Monday and Tuesday, well above average for late September.
1130 PM EDT Sun Sep 22 2019 An area of high pressure centered off the Mid Atlantic coast will drift east and allow a cold front to approach Pennsylvania from the Ohio Valley.
216 AM EDT Mon Sep 23 2019 A cold front will bring a chance of showers and a few thunderstorms to the area today.
A cold front is moving out of northern Missouri and into central Missouri. Temperatures this hour ranged from the mid 80s to the low 90s. A cold front currently running from central Iowa to Oklahoma will slide slowly east this period. Clouds though will help keep it cooler with a majority of readings in the mid 80s.
1129 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2019 With temps already down into the low to mid 40s across the northern Devils Lake basin and clear skies went ahead and added the patchy fog across the entire northern valley for a few hours late tonight into the dawn time frame. Skies slowly clearing across eastern ND with NW MN seeing clouds persist into the evening as upper low continues to provide some midlevel lift.
Water vapor imagery showing upper trough beginning to move into western MN with vorticity extension/PIVA moving into southwest MN at this time. As the upper low continues to move east overnight, expect clouds to thin some from the west and showers to end into west central WI shortly after 06z Mon. Lows Monday night should range in the low to mid 50s. This will drive a cold front through the region Tuesday afternoon. Surface temperatures should warm into the lower 80s ahead of this cold front, and dewpoints will climb into the mid 60s. 500mb height falls together with low level convergence along the aforementioned cold front should lead to convection by the late afternoon across western Minnesota.
Sfc cold front leads the trough in, tracking into the local forecast area between 00-06z Wed. Cold air aloft coupled with cyclonic flow should lead to some showers Wed, post the departing upper level level trough.
A cold front will move into the area later today with ceilings developing this afternoon.
High pressure ridge weakens and settles over the area today resulting in lighter onshore winds.
A slow-moving cold front has pushed through parts of the forecast area this morning, currently extending from the OKC metro to near Okmulgee to Fayetteville. Areas south of I-44 currently appear most susceptible to receiving the higher rainfall amounts, on average from 1 to 2 inches total.
/issued 821 PM EDT Sun Sep 22 2019/ A very dry subsident airmass over the region associated with deep layered ridging will keep pleasant dry weather across the entire forecast area the remainder of tonight with skies becoming mostly clear. High pressure along the mid Atlantic coast will maintain an elevated northeast to easterly wind flow over the Gulf waters the remainder of tonight with Cautionary headlines remaining in place for the near and offshore waters.
/issued 802 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2019/ Minor update to further limit the low mentionable PoPs to the far southeast zones where the northern fringe of a thinning plume of deep moisture still resides. The cold front progressing through the region will play into how morning CIGs play out. Upper ridging will dominate from late tomorrow onward into late week, but that will not fully squash rain chances as moisture will still be available if disturbances move across the upper ridge. Many of these disturbances could come from the upper low progged to move from the Pacific Northwest to southern CA/AZ.
Mid-long range portion of the forecast begins with long-wave trough swinging through the northern Plains Tuesday/Tuesday night. Models showing some differences in timing the associated cold front pushing through the forecast area Tuesday afternoon/evening, and this will play a role in determining location of potential severe threat. Ample instability near/ahead of the front, with increasing deep layer shear as 90-100+ kt jet dives into the base of the trough Tuesday evening. As is often the case with cold front scenarios, strongest shear lags behind the pre-frontal instability, with may limit areal extent of severe threat to near vicinity of the front itself. Strong thermal ridge ahead of the boundary should allow for a warm day, and like previous shift, nudged blended highs up toward 90th percentile of guidance given potential for mixing into lower-mid 80s most areas.