Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
705 PM EDT TUE SEP 15 2015 DRY SOUTHERLY FLOW ON WEST SIDE OF SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THROUGH TONIGHT SOUTHEAST MI WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF RIDGING BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SFC THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH JUST UPSTREAM AND THE RIDGE AXIS SLIDING EAST OF THE AREA. THIS WILL FAVOR LOW TEMPS A FEW DEGREES ABOVE GUIDANCE IN THE MID/UPPER 50S WITH A FEW COOL SPOTS DIPPING INTO THE LOW 50S.
937 PM EDT TUE SEP 15 2015 HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA ON WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY WILL REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES GIVEN THE COOLER AIR MASS ALOFT BROUGHT IN BY THE FIRST SYSTEM. THE FORECAST MODELS GENERALLY AGREE THAT THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEEPEN AND PUSH INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. ESPECIALLY OVER THE RIDGELINES WHERE GUSTS TO 20 TO 30 MPH. IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT SOME OF THE HIGH-RES MODELS ARE SLOWER WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
AFTER LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S TONIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND INTO THE MIDDLE 80S BY WEDNESDAY AFTN.
/ISSUED 325 PM CDT TUE SEP 15 2015/ RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS AND A DEVELOPING TROUGH NEAR THE WEST COAST HAS LED TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN DRAPED OVER THE WEST COAST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS WHILE HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER TEXAS.
THIS AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IS LOCATED ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN FLANK OF A DEEP LAYER MEAN ANTICYCLONE. WITH EAST-NORTHEAST TO EAST-SOUTHEAST WIND SHIFTS THROUGHOUT THE LOWER AND MIDDLE TROPOSPHERE. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE POSSIBLE IF THE BAND SHIFTS EASTWARD AND SETS UP OVER THE LOWER KEYS. A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL MOVE EASTWARD.
AT THE SAME TIME A MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE DEEPENING SOME OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.
741 PM EDT TUE SEP 15 2015 LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE OHIO VALLEY WILL PERSIST AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS EAST OF THE AREA.
The low clouds will burn off by late Wednesday morning and return to VFR across the area. This will help keep temps a bit warmer than what we saw this morning, with forecast lows generally in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Southerly winds will increase to 10-15 mph with afternoon highs once again in the low to mid 90s. Upper high pressure continues to dominate the weather picture for West Central Texas with dry weather continuing through the end of the week.
921 PM PDT TUE SEP 15 2015 A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. A GRADUAL WARMING AND DRYING TREND WILL BEGIN LATER THIS WEEK RESULTING IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY THIS WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES THIS EVENING AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE REGION.
SHORT-TERM MODELS IN AGREEMENT WITH SLIGHTLY LESS COVERAGE TOMORROW AFTN AS HIGH PRESSURE BE- GINS TO BUILD OVER THE CWA. HOWEVER THE LONG SELY FETCH AT THE LOW/MID LEVELS COULD MAKE FOR SOME GUSTY WINDS DURING THE AFTN.
/ISSUED 256 PM CDT TUE SEP 15 2015/ AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE MID SOUTH FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK.
1011 PM EDT TUE SEP 15 2015 COOL AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION WILL SETTLE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC BY MIDWEEK. TEMPS WILL BE SEASONAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINATE FEATURE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
916 PM EDT TUE SEP 15 2015 LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE OHIO VALLEY WILL PERSIST AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS EAST OF THE AREA.
707 PM EDT TUE SEP 15 2015 HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. MODELS GENERALLY SUGGEST THE COLD FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS DO SHOW SOME WEAK INSTABILITY WITH SB AND MLCAPE VALUES ON THE LOWER SIDE OF 500 TO 1000 J/KG. WE DID START OFF TODAY A BIT COOLER THAN IN PREVIOUS MORNINGS AND ARE RUNNING ABOUT 3-5 DEGREES BELOW WHERE WE WERE YESTERDAY. FEEL THAT GUIDANCE IS TRYING TO TREND MORE TOWARDS CLIMO THAN ACTUAL CONDITIONS WILL WARRANT SO WILL GO WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 90S WHICH IS ABOUT 5-7 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. JORDAN THE UA RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BE CENTERED SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY WEEKEND.
918 PM EDT TUE SEP 15 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS ON THE DRY SIDE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND SLIGHTLY MILDER AS WARMER AIR WORKS ITS WAY NORTH ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE HIGH.
AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A TROUGH TO THE WEST OVER THE DAKOTAS. BUT MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST THE LOW LEVEL JET TO INCREASE TO AROUND 50 KTS WITH NOTABLE MOISTURE TRANSPORT ENSUING.
1017 PM EDT TUE SEP 15 2015 ISOLD SHOWERS HAVE POPPED UP ACROSS FAR ERN UPR MICHIGAN AND FAR NRN LAKE HURON WITHIN THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS IN RESPONSE TO A VERY WEAK/MOISTURE-STARVED WAVE RIDING NE UPSTREAM OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS. NOT A WHOLE LOT GOING ON WEATHER WISE AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF TO OUR EAST REMAINS IN CONTROL.
Near to above normal temperatures will prevail for the remainder of the work week as the upper level ridge expands over the south central United States.
THE SYNOPTIC WEATHER PATTERN FEATURES AN AMPLIFYING RIDGE ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS. WITH AN UPSTREAM TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE A BIT WARMER THAN IN PAST NIGHTS GIVEN THE SLIGHTLY WARMER AIRMASS AND A WEAK SSW WIND. WEDNESDAY WILL BE A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER TODAY AS LOW- LEVEL THICKNESSES SLOWLY INCREASE. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S UNDER FULL SUNSHINE.
1020 PM EDT TUE SEP 15 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. THE HIGH WILL SLOWLY DRIFT OFF THE EAST COAST LATE IN THE WEEK AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND. WARMER AIR ALOFT AND A WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES A BIT WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT. EXCEPT ACROSS THE INTERIOR VALLEYS WHERE IT WILL COOL INTO THE LOWER 50S TO AROUND 50. A BROAD H5 RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE NATION WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THIS PERIOD. SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OFF THE EAST COAST WILL EXTEND BACK ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. AS A DEAMPLIFICATION IN THE PATTERN OVER WILL LEAD TO A VERY BROAD BASED LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE BULK OF NORTH AMERICA.
SOME OF THE COOLER VALLEYS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE MID 50S. HAVE MADE A FEW TWEAKS TO THE LOW TEMPERATURES BASED ON THE CURRENT TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS.
LARGE RIDGE ACROSS MIDWEST WILL PERSIST FOR BEGINNING OF PERIOD WITH LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSHING ONSHORE ACROSS PACNW WHICH WILL BEGIN TO FINALLY BREAK DOWN RIDGE MID PERIOD.
Moisture will continue to steadily increase today and tonight as low level flow builds from the east and a warm front to our south nudges northward.
905 PM EDT TUE SEP 15 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER RIGHT INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
AS A COLD FRONT OUT WEST MOVES ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE NIGHT. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. MODELS GENERALLY SUGGEST THE COLD FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
1146 PM CDT TUE SEP 15 2015 LONG WAVE TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG THE WEST COAST INLAND THROUGH THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY. AND REALLY WILL MOVE LITTLE THE NEXT 24 HRS AS SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO RUN PARALLEL ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS. VERY DRY AIR IS LOCATED TO THE WEST OF THE TROUGH ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN COLORADO INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE.
SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THIS EVENING.
MODELS SEEM TO AGREE THE RIDGE WILL KEEP THE RAIN AT BAY. TEMPERATURES WERE MUCH WARMER THAN EXPECTED IN A FEW LOCATIONS. ALTHOUGH DEWPOINTS WERE IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S IN A FEW SPOTS.
934 PM EDT TUE SEP 15 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY AND WARMER WEATHER FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. AND WITH MIN TEMPS SINKING IN THE LOWER 50S IN AREAS. ANOTHER SUNNY DAY IS FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY UNDERNEATH THE SPRAWLING EASTERN RIDGE. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD BE A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN TUESDAY. CL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST CONUS THROUGH THE PERIOD. DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH LATE WEEK WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. THE UPPER FLOW IS PROGGED TO FLATTEN BY THE WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE MOVES EAST.
742 PM EDT TUE SEP 15 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. THE HIGH WILL SLOWLY DRIFT OFF THE EAST COAST LATE IN THE WEEK AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND. WARMER AIR ALOFT AND WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES A BIT WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT. EXCEPT ACROSS THE INTERIOR VALLEYS WHERE IT WILL COOL INTO THE LOWER 50S TO AROUND 50. A BROAD H5 RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE NATION WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THIS PERIOD. SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OFF THE EAST COAST WILL EXTEND BACK ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. AS A DEAMPLIFICATION IN THE PATTERN OVER WILL LEAD TO A VERY BROAD BASED LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE BULK OF NORTH AMERICA.
THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO THE TRAILING END OF A PREFRONTAL TROUGH AXIS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND CENTRAL/EASTERN TN. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY TOP OFF IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S IN MOST LOCATIONS.
/ISSUED 400 AM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015/ SFC ANALYSIS HAS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE N GULF WHICH MAY EDGE BACK TO THE WEST TODAY AND MONDAY. 500MB ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE HAS EXPANDED AND INCREASED TO 597/596 DM FOR 00Z SUN. WITH RIDGING IN PLACE. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS OVER MUCH OF TX AND S PLAINS FOR THE COMING WEEK.
HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 90S WITH THE HIGHEST CENTERED IN THE ST.
UPPER RIDGING DOMINATES THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE CONUS. SOME OF THE HIGHER RESOLUTION GUIDANCE AGAIN SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE TROUGH/CONFLUENCE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. FOR MONDAY THE TREND WITH THE HIGHER RESOLUTION NAM HAS BEEN CONSISTENT FOR 2-3 DAYS WITH DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL KANSAS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS TRACKING SOUTHEAST DURING THE EVENING AND POSSIBLY OVERNIGHT OVER WESTERN SECTIONS.
/ISSUED 407 AM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015/ EARLY MORNING SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE N-CNTL GULF OF MEXICO. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS RIDGING ALOFT CENTERED OVER THE WRN GULF COAST REGION. RIDGING ALOFT IS PROGGED TO MEANDER ACROSS TX AND THE WRN GULF REGION. POSSIBLE EXCEPTION LOOKS TO BE ACROSS LOWER ACADIANA WHERE THE IMPACT OF THE RIDGE WILL BE A LITTLE LESS AND A LITTLE BETTER MOISTURE IS PROGGED ALOFT.
THE REGION REMAINS IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH POSITIONED OFF THE WEST COAST. BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NW STATES WILL REMAIN THROUGH MIDWEEK.
SRLY FLOW PREVAILED INTO UPPER MI BETWEEN HIGH PRES OVER THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES AND A TROUGH OVER THE NRN PLAINS.
THIS WILL ALLOW A MUCH STRONGER AND MORE ORGANIZED 500-MB TROUGH TO DIG SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS TODAY AND FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK AHEAD. /ISSUED 409 AM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015/ THE CENTER OF A RETROGRADING RIDGE ALOFT WILL DRIFT INTO WEST TEXAS TODAY.
/ISSUED 328 AM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015/ HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
UPPER LOW CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN ALB/SASK IS ROTATING AN IMPRESSIVE AREA OF MOISTURE INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. DOWNSLOPE ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-90/US212 MAY BE TOO MUCH FOR STORMS TO PERSIST OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN BUT KEPT ISOLATED STORM MENTION IN AS A FEW OF THE HIGH-RES MODELS HAVE SHOWN A HINT OF CONVECTION IN THESE AREAS. INSTABILITY PROGGS POINT TOWARD OUR SW ZONES AS BEING THE BEST PRIMED REGION SO WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS OVER AND NEAR THE BEARTOOTHS AS USUAL. RIDGING WILL OCCUR IN THE WAKE OF TODAYS SHORT WAVE. THIS WILL MEAN SOMEWHAT WARMER TEMPERATURES AND WEAKER.
THE FL PENINSULA WILL REMAIN ON THE FAR EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE LEADING TO CONTINUING NORTH- NORTHEASTERLY STEERING FLOW FOR STORMS INTO THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IN THE LOWER LEVELS. IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE HOT WITH HIGHS REACHING THE LOW 90S ALONG THE COAST TO MID 90S OVER MUCH OF THE INTERIOR.
ACTIVITY WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE ON MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD BACK OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. ALONG THE COAST LOWER CLOUDS HAVE DISSIPATED MOST LIKELY IN RESPONSE TO THE TROUGH AXIS BEING NEARLY OVER THE WEST COAST AND MIXING THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BEGIN TO DIMINISH AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THE AREA WILL REMAIN IN A NEARLY ZONAL PATTERN WITH WAVES MOVING THROUGH FROM TIME TO TIME CAUSING PERIODS OF WEAK RIDGING. ALONG WITH PERIODS OF WEAK TROUGHINESS.
A SHORT WAVE WITH H85 TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA AND TRIGGERS AN ORGANIZED AREA OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. IN THE WAKE OF A PASSING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
THIS MORNING'S STORMS ARE INDICATIVE OF THE UNSTABLE AND ENERGETIC ENVIRONMENT SURROUNDING THIS UPPER TROUGH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THOUGH A TOUCH WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. THE LOWER CONDITIONS WILL MOVE BACK ONSHORE SUNDAY EVENING.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL PROVIDE A HEALTHY DOSE OF SUBSIDENCE THIS AFTERNOON. /ISSUED 400 AM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015/ SFC ANALYSIS HAS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE N GULF WHICH MAY EDGE BACK TO THE WEST TODAY AND MONDAY. 500MB ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE HAS EXPANDED AND INCREASED TO 597/596 DM FOR 00Z SUN. WITH RIDGING IN PLACE. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS OVER MUCH OF TX AND S PLAINS FOR THE COMING WEEK.
LOOKING AT MID 80S TO MID 90S ACROSS THE EAST AND 70S TO 80S IN THE HIGH COUNTRY. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE ROCKIES ON MONDAY WHICH WILL OPEN THE DOOR FOR A MONSOONAL PUSH OVER THE CWA WITHIN ENERGETIC MIDLEVEL FLOW.
746 AM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015 STRONG UPPER HIGH CENTERED OVER TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING WITH FAIRLY STRONG UPPER WAVE MOVING EAST ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WORK WEEK BEGINS WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS ACROSS THE WEST COAST AND GREAT LAKES REGION. WHILE A RIDGE IS POSITIONED OVER PLAINS/ROCKIES.
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE AREA TODAY. THE TEMPS COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 70S WILL CREATE HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 105-110 ACROSS PARTS OF THE FCST AREA. THE STRONG RIDGE WILL KEEP MOST AREAS DRY.
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND TROUGHING OVER THE WEST WILL RESULT IN DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE IN THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THEN ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA AT THE END OF THE WEEK. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A FEW SHOWERS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.
1127 AM EDT SUN JUL 12 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL GIVE US ANOTHER BEAUTIFUL DAY TODAY, THEN A DISTURBANCE WILL SPREAD A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON.
646 AM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015 AREA OF FOG HAS DEVELOPED ROUGHLY WITHING THE LOW LEVEL MOIST OUTFLOW FROM THE OVERNIGHT THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN AND EXTENDS FROM JAMESTOWN TO HARVEY AND POSSIBLE NORTH TO NEAR RUGBY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS PROJECTED TO PROPAGATE EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE. AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BUILD. THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE LIMITED TO THE NORTH CENTRAL AND EAST WHERE THE REMNANTS OF THE UPPER LOW WILL BRING SOME INSTABILITY INTO THE MIX.
/ISSUED 348 AM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015/ EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES ARE 2-4 DEGREES WARMER THAN THEY WERE AT THIS TIME YESTERDAY MORNING.
MONSOON MOISTURE AND THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TO NORTHERN ARIZONA AS HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS OVER THE SOUTHWEST STATES. NORTHERN ARIZONA IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE CELL CURRENTLY SPINNING OVER NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS. THIS HIGH PRESSURE CELL IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER TEXAS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE CAUSING A MOIST FLOW TO DEVELOP OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA.
A THERMAL RIDGE EXTENDED FROM NM AND WEST TX UP INTO OUR AREA. SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS SHOULD PREVAIL WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN THE LOWER OR MID 70S. SOME OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS DEVELOP ISOLD TO SCT TSTMS NEAR THAT WIND SHIFT LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. THIS SHOULD ALSO BRING IN SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS. WITH WARMER HIGHS MONDAY.
A SERIES OF UPPER DISTURBANCES ROTATING THROUGH AN UPPER TROUGH NEAR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL MAINTAIN ONSHORE FLOW IN SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WITH THE UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY PUSHING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST OVER NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
UPPER RIDGE TAKES CONTROL EVEN MORE THE NEXT TWO DAYS.
/ISSUED 345 AM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015/ An upper level high building over west Texas will end rain chances this week.
1015 AM EDT SUN JUL 12 2015 A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN DRAPED ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK AS A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE DROP DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST.
1153 AM EDT SUN JUL 12 2015 A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT BEFORE WASHING OUT ON MONDAY.
THE INITIAL QUESTION FOR TODAY IS HOW LONG WILL THE LOW CLOUDS HANG ON ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. GIVEN THE HIGH MOISTURE LEVELS IN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE. HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE LOW TO MID 100S ARE FORECAST FROM THE QUAD CITIES AREA TO POINTS WEST AND SOUTH.
EXPECT MORE ACTIVITY OVER NE FL THAN SE GA LATER TODAY WITH WEAK SURFACE AND UPPER TROUGHS PUSHING S INTO N FL.
OUR REGION LIES BETWEEN TWO AREAS OF HIGH PRESSURE. WITH OUR REGION LYING ON THE SOUTHEAST PERIPHERY OF A STRONG CONTINENTAL REGION OF HIGH PRESSURE AND A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) TO OUR EAST. SINCE THE CURRENT FORECAST INCLUDES ONLY ISOLATED 20 PERCENT POPS WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 90S. MOSTLY NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS OF 10 KNOTS OR LESS WITH THE HIGHEST WINDS ON THE FLORIDA STRAITS WILL BE KEPT FOR THE 1030 AM MARINE PACKAGE.
HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT CENTERED WEST OF OUR CWA WILL REMAIN DOMINANT. MODELS SHOW LARGE MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER SOUTHERN PLAINS REACHING AN INITIAL PEAK IN INTENSITY NEXT 36 HOURS AS WAVES DROPPING SE OVER EAST SIDE OF RIDGE RESULT IN AN ACTIVE PATTERN FOR THE OHIO VALLEY AND LOWER LAKES REGIONS. MODELS AGREE ON LOW LEVEL TEMPS CONTINUING TO GRADUALLY RISE A COUPLE OF DEGS NEXT 36 HOURS AS WLY LOW LEVEL FLOW ADVECTS WARMER AIR EAST. AS A RESULT EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO CONTINUE TO POP UP A DEG OR TWO WARMER EACH AFTERNOON. AS OF NOW SEEMS AS IF BETTER MIXING OF LOWER DEWPOINTS WILL OCCUR TO OUR WEST IN THE ARKLATEX WITH MODELS SHOWING SFC DEWPOINTS HOLDING IN AT LEAST THE LOWER 70S THROUGH EACH AFTERNOON.
BELIEVE A SIMILAR RESULT WILL OCCUR TODAY, AND WE HAVE LOWERED THE HIGHS A FEW DEGREES IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. THE CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS HINT AT SURFACE-BASED INITIATION IN THE HILL CITY AREA LATE IN THE AFTERNOON, BUT GIVEN THE PRONOUNCED UPPER RIDGING IN PLACES ACROSS SOUTHWEST.
809 AM EDT SUN JUL 12 2015 AN UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE EAST COAST. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER TEXAS. WITH UPPER TROUGHINESS ALONG THE EAST COAST. UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN CENTERED TO OUR WEST WITH UPPER TROUGH ALONG THE EAST COAST. UPPER RIDGE TO REMAIN TO OUR WEST WITH TROUGHINESS ALONG THE EAST COAST.
Our next good chance for showers and thunderstorms will arrive on Monday with a cold front.
TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WATER VAPOR SHOWS UPPER LOW NEAR THE MT/CNDN BORDER WITH UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING INTO THE NRN PLAINS. TROF EXTENDS ACROSS THE CNTRL DAKOTAS. UPPER LOW MEANDERS SLOWLY EWD ALONG THE MT/CNTRL BORDER WITH GENERALLY FLAT UPPER RIDGE OVER OUR CWFA. SFC TROF WILL CONTINUE A VERY SLOW EWD PROGRESSION. BUT WILL LEAD TO HOT TEMPS WITH THERMAL RIDGE OVERHEAD. UPPER RIDGE WILL REAMPLIFY INTO THE NRN PLAINS AS UPPER LOW WEAKENS/SHIFTS EWD. VERY NEAR OR A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN TODAY.
748 AM EDT SUN JUL 12 2015 AVIATION ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND INTO THE AREA TODAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL ACTUALLY INCREASE SLIGHTLY(ISOLATED/SLIGHT CHANCE) AFTER SUNSET AND WILL LINGER OVERNIGHT AS THE SOUTHERN TAIL END OF THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. SEASONABLE DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S ALONG WITH THE RETURN OF UPPER 60-LOWER 70F DEWPOINTS WILL SUPPORT MODERATE DESTABILIZATION MONDAY AFTERNOON. UPPER RIDGE OVER THE MIDWEST AMPLIFIES AND SHIFTS EASTWARD THROUGH MIDWEEK.
A MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM NOW OVER THE NRN GULF STATES WILL SHIFT WEST INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. BELIEVE THAT THE HIGHEST CHCS FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT TODAY WILL BE OVER SE IL/SW IN AND THE PENNYRILE REGION OF WESTERN KY. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD INCREASE FURTHER BY MONDAY OVER OUR NE COUNTIES AS H50 SHORT WAVE ENERGY ROUNDS THE TOP OF THE RIDGE AND DIVES SE TOWARD THE OH VALLEY. SFC DEW POINTS WILL HOVER IN THE MID 70S WITH ACTUAL TEMPS IN THE LOWER HALF OF THE 90S.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PERSIST ALONG THE WEST COAST PLACING THE FORECAST AREA UNDER A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE COUPLED WITH DEEP LAYER MIXING SHOULD FIRE A FEW ISOLD SHRA/TS OFF THE HIGH TERRAIN OF NE WY AND CARRY EAST THIS EVE. TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WATER VAPOR SHOWS UPPER LOW NEAR THE MT/CNDN BORDER WITH UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING INTO THE NRN PLAINS. TROF EXTENDS ACROSS THE CNTRL DAKOTAS. UPPER LOW MEANDERS SLOWLY EWD ALONG THE MT/CNTRL BORDER WITH GENERALLY FLAT UPPER RIDGE OVER OUR CWFA. SFC TROF WILL CONTINUE A VERY SLOW EWD PROGRESSION. BUT WILL LEAD TO HOT TEMPS WITH THERMAL RIDGE OVERHEAD. UPPER RIDGE WILL REAMPLIFY INTO THE NRN PLAINS AS UPPER LOW WEAKENS/SHIFTS EWD. VERY NEAR OR A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN TODAY.
SOUTHWEST FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE CWA THIS MORNING BETWEEN THE LARGE HIGH CENTERED OVER TEXAS AND THE UPPER TROF ALONG THE COAST. THIS SHOULD BRING THE THREAT OF CONVECTION TO MAINLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THESE AREAS MON AFTN AND AGAIN TUE. THE FAR NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE CWA REMAINS CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE WEST COAST TROF TO KEEP A SMALL THREAT OF CONVECTION GOING THERE TODAY THRU TUE. THE WEST COAST TROF THEN STARTS TO SHIFT INLAND AND SHUNTS THE MOISTURE OFF TO THE EAST WED. THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROF COULD GENERATE A LITTLE WEAK ACTIVITY ALONG THE ID BORDER WED AFTN/EVE.
THE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATE OF AROUND 7 C/KM, ARE GOOD FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION, BUT THE 3-6KM LAPSE RATES LOOK TO BE LESS THAN 6 C/KM ON THE NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS. THE FREEZING LEVEL IS DOWN TO ABOUT 14K FT, AND THE 500MB TEMP IS AROUND -8C. THIS WILL TURN THE LOWER LEVEL WINDS MORE TO THE SOUTH.
THERE WILL BE A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING OVER THE DRY LINE. HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON LOOK TO RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 90S IN FAR EASTERN COLORADO WITH UPPER 90S TO AROUND 105 EAST OF THE COLORADO/KANSAS BORDER. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR SOME THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES (PER 700-500 RH) ROTATE THROUGH THE AREA AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE CENTER LOCATED OVER CENTRAL TEXAS.
840 AM EDT SUN JUL 12 2015 A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT BEFORE WASHING OUT ON MONDAY.