Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
High pressure will lead to very hot temperatures for the region into the end of the week. A shift in the pattern will allow monsoonal moisture and thunderstorm chances to increase for the weekend which will also bring cooler temperatures.
301 AM EDT WED JUL 27 2016 An inland trough and Bermuda high pressure offshore pattern will prevail through the week. except a bit cooler where any storms occur. Persistent mid-state trof and Bermuda high will continue into the weekend.
409 AM CDT WED JUL 27 2016 A weak upper level impulse will move around the western periphery of the ridge centered off the east coast today. This feature will lift through the Mississippi/Arkansas/Tenn area this afternoon and be absorbed into a broad trough that will set up over the region that will persist through the weekend.
350 AM EDT WED JUL 27 2016 Strong high pressure will remain off the southeast coast through the end of the week with a weak frontal boundary lingering over the Mid Atlantic.
High pressure is still dominating the area, with quiet and mild to seasonable temperatures. At 850mb, a dry air intrusion was noted from MN into the mid- to lower MO River valley, with moisture returning through KS toward the High Plains of NE/SD/ND.
Forecast for today will be tricky as the cold front has settled along the Laramie Range and Cheyenne Ridge. so it appears that the cold front got hung up around the Cheyenne Ridge which may play a role in convection initiation later today. mainly across the high plains of SE Wyoming and central and southern Nebraska panhandle. High temperatures will be noticeable cooler Thursday afternoon.
The most noticeable area of thunderstorms is a convective complex across the nation's heartland, near the intersection of a cold front stretch from the Black Hills of South Dakota northeast to Lake Superior, though this area has and will continue to weaken as evidenced by warming IR cloud tops.
For today, a weak mid level trough will be located across western parts of the area into northeast Mexico.
140 AM EDT WED JUL 27 2016 High pressure was overhead and will move off to the east on Wednesday.
205 AM EDT WED JUL 27 2016 Strong high pressure will remain centered over the southeast United States through the end of the week.
It is expected to continue moving slowly north then northeast around the western periphery of a subtropical high center before shearing out and leaving behind a weak mid/upper level trough axis across northern portions of the ArkLaMiss as we go into late week.
627 AM EDT WED JUL 27 2016 Warm and dry weather can be expected until the approach of low pressure on Thursday. POPs will be on the increase with the approach of low pressure on Thursday. For now, highest POPS and QPF resides over the southeast portions of the forecast area where the track of the low should progress.
242 AM EDT WED JUL 27 2016 A cold front will approach from the northwest today and stall across the region tonight into Thursday.
419 AM CDT WED JUL 27 2016 (Today and Tonight) An upper level ridge will remain centered across the Great Basin region today. Models indicate a subtle disturbance moving southwest across West Central Texas today, along the eastern periphery of the upper level ridge. Highs today will be slightly cooler than what we saw yesterday, due to expected increased cloud cover and possible showers. Overnight lows will mainly be in the low to mid 70s.
Expect some activity to develop along and ahead of the lee trough over western Nebraska this evening and move eastward.
1228 AM CDT WED JUL 27 2016 The weak cold front that has sagged into the forecast area so far today has been generating some weak showers with a few rumbles of thunder along it. Wednesday the cloud cover and precipitation chances should keep temperatures cooler than today, and have temperatures mainly in the 70s. Cooler late this week as high pressure builds in from the north. Late in the weekend warmer air returns as the high pressure moves off to the east and southerly winds prevail.
Ahead of the front warm south winds will prevail with highs warming into the low to mid 90s and mostly sunny skies. For Wednesday night, a cold front will continue to drop south across western Kansas, and with good moisture in place, and stronger north to northwest flow aloft, more thunderstorms are forecast, some strong to severe.
The high pressure ridge is building westward into a position that effectively blocks Monsoon moisture from moving up into northern Arizona.
422 AM EDT WED JUL 27 2016 Continued high pressure across the southeast states will keep conditions hot across much of Georgia through the period. With ridging in place and no mid-level impulses to generate organized convection, feel the precipitation coverage will be limited again today. Perhaps the high terrain will act as a catalysis for some initiation, with highest pops noted across the northern tier. Mid/upper 80s across the higher terrain. Clear and mainly calm overnight with the high still anchored to our east. The stacked SW flow around the high will be draped across the northern tier, which will be the axis for which any precipitation may occur. Will be another hot day in store with temperatures in the mid/upper 90s, apart from the higher terrain.
Today, a weak upper level low will move into Northwest Mississippi and will dissolve over the area by Thursday. For Thursday into at least the early part of the weekend, a broad upper trough will move in over the region.
high pressure centered just off the southeast US Atlantic coast also ridges west over our area. Gulf moisture continues to be lifted northward into the forecast area on the western periphery of this ridging with precipitable water values ranging from around 1. But with the ridging greatest to the east and the moisture highest to the west. Lows tonight again in the low to mid 70s across the area. with the warmer temps at the coast.
SHORT TERM (Today through Thursday): General weak upper level troughing remains across the western half of the Gulf of Mexico as the over all flow pattern continues to move westward. A weak upper level low pressure center is situated over the Louisiana coastline. The weak upper level low centered over the region is allowing for some ascent over mainly the western Upper Valley and Ranchland locations of the CWA. Do expect that any lingering precip will likely dissipate as the low continues to move west to the higher terrain of Mexico. High pressure will then fill back in over the region with dry and hot weather retuning.
507 AM EDT WED JUL 27 2016 A weak front will remain just south of the Commonwealth through tonight, as high pressure maintains warm and mainly dry conditions.
On Thursday, the flow aloft will shift slightly to the northwest as the upper level ridge tries to rebuild over the Pacific Northwest.
This ridge of high pressure will slide south as a cold front sinks southeastward from southeastern Quebec producing showers and thunderstorms late Wednesday through Thursday.
The main east-west oriented upper ridge continues to control the weather pattern across the southern CONUS.
The highest rain chances will be in those areas. The aforementioned deformation zone, along with height falls associated with this low, will produce some scattered nocturnal convection that will be present before daybreak but better rain chances will be during the late morning and afternoon hours. This upper low will be kicked out of the region late Thursday as upper flow across the central and southern plains becomes increasingly northwesterly in nature and the low gets caught up in the developing trough.
238 AM CDT WED JUL 27 2016 The pesky cold front that has been impacting our weather over the past 24 hours will be along our southeastern border at 12Z this morning.
651 AM EDT WED JUL 27 2016 High pressure over the region will keep above normal temperatures in the forecast through the end of the week. The upper level ridge will remain over the region today. Any convection will be isolated and mainly north and west of the region around upper ridge. High pressure will continue to be the dominant feature both aloft and at the surface on Thursday in fact subsidence inversion may strengthen.
642 AM EDT WED JUL 27 2016 An inland trough and Bermuda high pressure offshore pattern will prevail through the week. except a bit cooler where any storms occur. Persistent mid-state trof and Bermuda high will continue into the weekend.
Storm coverage is still likely to be less on Thursday with highest chances for storms to be in far northwest Montana, particularly in the high terrain in and near Glacier NP.
416 AM EDT WED JUL 27 2016 Warm and dry weather can be expected until the approach of low pressure on Thursday. POPs will be on the increase with the approach of low pressure on Thursday. For now, highest POPS and QPF resides over the southeast portions of the forecast area where the track of the low should progress.
420 AM EDT WED JUL 27 2016 High pressure is weakly in place across the region.
Southeast low level flow with high pressure in central Canada and low pressure in the Great Basin will keep high dew points over the northern plains. Upper disturbances along with daytime convection off the higher terrain should help pushing showers and thunderstorms across the region through the period.
158 AM EDT WED JUL 27 2016 High pressure over the region will keep above normal temperatures in the forecast through the end of the week. An upper level ridge will remain over the southeastern overnight. Atlantic high pressure will ridge into the region. Warm air aloft combined with weak instability and subsidence beneath the upper ridge will hold dry weather across much of the area. High pressure will continue to be the dominant feature both aloft and at the surface on Wednesday. Subsidence aloft will limit convective development with only isolated diurnal convection expected, focused mainly along the lee-side trough and also along the sea breeze.
Upper level ridging refusing to budge along the southeast US coast into the Tennessee Valley today. With current temperatures early this morning in the lower 70s northeast and mostly upper 70s south and central. Think GFS is trying to cool temperatures down too much so will go closer to warmer NAM with highs again mid 90s in most lower elevations.
Outside of any fog issues, low temperatures in the low-mid 60s outside Chicago and lower 70s in the city appear to be on track. Given the high will be overhead with light winds, and because some patchy fog was reported this morning to our west under this high, I have opted to include the mention for such in the forecast later tonight. Temperatures inland could end up another degree or two warmer than todays readings, which would mean the potential for upper 80s highs. Closer to the lake, however, temperatures will remain in the low 80s.
159 AM PDT WED JUL 27 2016 A ridge of high pressure will provide mostly clear skies and above average temperatures through the week. Well above average temperatures are expected once again today as fairly strong high pressure remains in control over much of the southwestern U.
The area currently lies between two anticyclones, one centered over the four corners and the other over the southeast conus. In between these two features is a compact upper low, currently shown by moisture channel imagery to be located near Monroe Louisiana. Models all showing showers and thunderstorms becoming widespread as the day progresses, especially over the east and southeast along the path of the aforementioned upper low. This upper low will be kicked out of the region late in the day as upper flow becomes mores northwest in nature and the low gets caught up in a developing upper trough.
Very warm conditions will persist inland through the remainder of the work week as high pressure dominates the weather pattern. Meanwhile, cooler temperatures will continue near the coast as a result of weak onshore flow. Inland areas will then cool down for the upcoming weekend as an upper level trough develops off of the Pacific Northwest Coast.
653 AM EDT WED JUL 27 2016 Strong high pressure will remain off the southeast coast through the end of the week with a weak frontal boundary lingering over the Mid Atlantic.
316 AM CDT WED JUL 27 2016 West TX and SE NM will remain under fairly weak NE flow aloft with an upper ridge centered to the NW and an inverted trough to the east.
A weak upper low will drift west across the CWA today.
Kept the highest rain chances 40-50% near Atoka and Durant where highest precipitable water values of 2-2. Highs today should be hotter than yesterday in most locations due to more sun, mainly in the lower to mid 90s. After midnight tonight, a complex of storms over the High Plains in western Kansas may dive south or southeast, possibly into northern Oklahoma.
Will slowly increase PoPs from north to south, beginning this morning in the far north to acknowledge possibility in the GFS and some of the hi-res models of a weak mid-level trough sagging into the area. Best chances for showers and storms come with the passage of the short wave trough and associated surface wave late this afternoon and tonight. Will have the highest PoPs with the stronger frontogenetic response across the northern half of the CWA tonight.
Upper high centered over southern Nevada early this morning with the steering from the northeast already in place. Then after a brief break in the activity, the model showed it redeveloping in the mountains east of Tucson and eventually tracking southwest into the lower deserts.
/issued 939 PM EDT TUE JUL 26 2016/ The current synoptic pattern aloft features an area of high pressure over the Carolinas with low pressure southwest of the state. At the surface, the Atlantic ridge axis remains stretched across the central peninsula. High pressure over the region will keep relatively light southeast to south winds in place for the next few days, with winds becoming onshore near the coast with the sea breeze.
Narrow mid level ridge will likely further weaken ongoing storms, now primary being fed off cold pool and veering 850MB-700MB winds. Think this could provide focus for storms to develop this afternoon, or they may wait until near sunset when upper trough approaches. Models are also hinting at storms behind the upper trough late tonight, which is possible, but would be dependent on good 850MB-700MB warm air advection.
156 AM EDT WED JUL 27 2016 Warm and dry weather can be expected until the approach of low pressure on Thursday. POPs will be on the increase with the approach of low pressure on Thursday. For now, highest POPS and QPF resides over the southeast portions of the forecast area where the track of the low should progress.
249 AM EDT WED JUL 27 2016 High pressure over the region will keep above normal temperatures in the forecast through the end of the week. The upper level ridge will remain over the region today. Any convection will be isolated and mainly north and west of the region around upper ridge. High pressure will continue to be the dominant feature both aloft and at the surface on Thursday in fact subsidence inversion may strengthen.
333 AM EDT WED JUL 27 2016 A weak wave is passing southwest of the area while a large upper low moves east off the Virginia / Carolina coast. An area of high pressure is oriented from the western Atlantic, across the Florida Peninsula with the Keys area on the southern edge.
420 AM EDT WED JUL 27 2016 Atlantic high pressure will prevail through the weekend while a weak trough persists inland. Pre-Dawn: The gradient in the boundary layer is a bit tighter early this morning and turbulent low level mixing was more evident along the coast keeping temps in the lower 80s overnight around Charleston and Beaufort, while Savannah airport had fallen to 79 degrees at 4 am. The center of the expansive subtropical ridge will continue to stagnate right along the southeast U. Convection allowing high resolution models are very scant on shower/tstm coverage this afternoon as anticipated with the high pres dome providing subsidence and quite warm temps aloft. Strong ridging overhead and the associated subsidence will keep the mid and upper levels warm and dry through the end of the workweek.
The strengthening NW flow aloft will also bring the potential for MCS's to roll off the High Plains and into our area during the late night and early morning time period.
Anyway, pressure gradient over the area will increase today, as high pressure over the Tennessee Valley slowly moves eastward, and low pressure deepens out in the plains, and drags a cold front toward the region. Humidity will decrease rapidly behind the front, as high pressure moves into the region.
Fire weather will remain a concern into Friday behind the cold front, with drier air and breezy conditions. The low level thermal ridge will nose right up into eastern OK this afternoon ahead of a cold front. For this reason, the high temp forecast will be a few degrees higher than yesterday, which overachieved in some spots as well. A cold front will push thru the region tonight into Friday, bringing an abrupt change to the unseasonable warmth.
332 AM CST Thu Feb 23 2017 09z/3am surface analysis shows weak cold front along the I-55 corridor. to the lower 70s far south around Flora. Showers will become more numerous across north-central Illinois tonight as low pressure approaches from the west and the boundary begins to lift back northward as a warm front. 00z Feb 23 models are in good agreement with low pressure tracking from western Kansas this evening to the southern Great Lakes by Friday evening. NAM/GFS/ECMWF all show cold front along I-55 by 18z Fri.
Later this evening the dry-line is forecast to move back to the west while a Pacific cold front moves from west Texas into the Rio Grande and Edwards Plateau areas.
303 AM CST Thu Feb 23 2017 Wx map shows departing sfc and upper low over FL, with weak high pressure over the area. Fog expected to dissipate by mid morning as southerly winds increase today as low pressure intensifies over the Central Plains. Expect warmer temperatures this afternoon, with highs in the upper 70s to near 80, about 10-15 degrees above normal.
00Z models are showing a slight shift south and west with the inverted trough, which opens the door for stronger upslope forcing across the plains and the east/northeast facing slopes of the mountains. Snow will taper off to light snow/flurries during the day Friday as the sfc/upper lows move farther away from the area. This will keep temperatures below average across the CWA with periods of snow showers mainly over the higher mtns as the aforementioned system pass mostly south of the area.
Clouds and potential for precip will keep temps in the low 70s for most which remains 20 degrees above normal for his time of year. The TAF sites are currently not seeing any issues with most of the ridge sites remaining mixed this hour. That said it does look like this will be in the low MVFR range at this point.
A cold front will move into the Mid-South late Friday afternoon into Friday evening.
1158 PM CST Wed Feb 22 2017 At H5 upper trough coming on shore in the Pacific Northwest Large closed low over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Mainly zonal flow over the lower 48 with the exception of Pacific Northwest. Upper closed low forms over the Great Basin tonight with diffluence aloft over western Nebraska developing through the early morning hours of Thursday. Upglide and cold front moving south into western Nebraska with a mix of precipitation early as the cold air moves south. Upper low shears to the northeast Friday night with temperatures rebounding through the weekend.
Increasing south winds are expected tomorrow given the tighten- ing gradient in response to the next low-pressure storm system moving off the Rockies and deepening over the Southern Plains.
1236 AM EST Thu Feb 23 2017 Weak low pressure near Florida will keep onshore flow over the area with low chances of showers through Thursday.
Updated aviation section for 06z taf issuance We will begin the short term period with a continuation of near record warmth as surface ridging continues ahead of the next advancing cold front over the Plains and Midwest states. Morning low temps Thu in the 50s will be followed by day time highs in the lower to mid 70s despite the presence of considerable cloud cover much of the day. Aformentioned cold front will then approach and move through the forecast area Friday/Friday evening.
There will be a chance for showers late in the day today as the frontal boundary becomes increasingly active as low pressure approaches. Chances of rain Thursday will have increasing chances for rain late as a low pressure system moves eastward from the Plains. Severe weather is possible Friday afternoon and evening as a cold front moves through the area. High on Friday will be in the middle 60s to the lower 70s in spots, then plummet back to seasonable temperatures for the weekend along with a chance for snow showers. Expect little more than wind shift/slightly cooler yet still well above normal temps.
437 AM EST Thu Feb 23 2017 Weak low pressure over the Florida Peninsula will move into the Bahamas today with onshore flow weakening.
An approaching cold front in the 30 hr period will likely result in some MVFR BR and a wind shift to the northwest just before 12Z for KAUS/KSAT. Upper air analysis this morning showed a low amplitude ridge over Texas with nearly zonal flow. At the surface, a weak trough was moving across our northern area. The upper level ridge will move to the east and a trough will move across the southern Rockies during this period. A cold front will move to our northern border by the end of the period.
1132 PM CST Wed Feb 22 2017 At 3 PM, a short wave trough was moving across northern Minnesota. Soundings continue to suggest that this precipitation will be mainly in the form of rain during the evening and as the atmospheric column cools after midnight that this precipitation will change to a wintry mix of snow, rain, and freezing rain. During this time, expect periods of rain and freezing rain. With the addition of ice aloft and below freezing temperatures aloft, this deformation band should contain mainly snow. Surface cold front now along a line from KEAU to KLSE to KOLZ and will continue to push eastward overnight. Behind the front, winds increase from the northwest with some gusts into the lower 20 kt range.
An upper level trough over the region this weekend will keep temperatures near average with highs in the upper 20s and 30s. Upper troughing will dominate the region through mid week. The trough will begin to exit on Thursday and temperatures will reflect that as they pop back into the 40s. KMBG and KPIR terminals are likely to remain in the low clouds.
A dryline followed by a cold front will move through the area on Friday. Cooler weather will follow Friday night through the weekend with almost a 30 to 40 degree temperature drop compared to Thursday's temperatures.
Meanwhile an upper low is drifting east to southeast across the southeastern Gulf of Mexico, and is cutoff from the flow.
(Friday through Thursday) Expect cooler temperatures and gusty northwest winds Friday behind a cold front.
1159 PM CST Wed Feb 22 2017 A weak trough is stalled across the region this afternoon. The Southerly winds in front of the trough is allowing warm temperatures today which are well above normal. A strong low pressure system will be moving into the region Thursday afternoon which will significantly increase the Southerly winds and the moisture transport across the region.
130 AM CST Thu Feb 23 2017 South winds in the lower trop will provide a warm air advection environ for the next 24 to 36 hours, prior to a now developing weather system taking shape and sweeping thru the area with showers and thunderstorms chances mainly Friday afternoon and evening. Air temps Today and again Fri will top out in the lower 70s, which will be approaching record warmth for this time of year: Today Record High.