Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
A few areas of vorticity maxima are rotating around the low this morning helping to generate a few light rain showers across the region, but lift is very weak. As the day progresses, this low should move to the northeast taking the best lift with it. Chattanooga Airport, TN 78 63 83 65 / 20 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 75 61 82 62 / 50 10 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 74 60 82 63 / 50 10 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 71 56 79 57 / 50 20 10 0.
1003 AM CDT Thu Sep 14 2017 Warming trend to continue today as surface winds become southerly across the region and weak upper-level trough is replaced by ridging from the west.
/issued 626 AM CDT Thu Sep 14 2017/ Upper level high pressure ridge axis passing later today with VFR and dry conditions. /issued 328 AM CDT Thu Sep 14 2017/ Today will be a couple of degrees warmer than yesterday as the axis of an upper ridge moves overhead. As the ridge moves eastward a trough will amplify over the Rockies placing the FA under southwesterly flow aloft allowing the transport of tropical moisture northeastward from the Pacific.
728 AM EDT Thu Sep 14 2017 Aviation Areas of dense fog will lift this morning and high pressure will bring fair weather through the end of the week.
Weak high pressure will hold across the area tonight into the weekend with Jose well off the coast. This afternoon: Weak high pressure will be over the area today.
821 AM EDT Thu Sep 14 2017 Scattered showers are expected today with the remnant upper level low of Irma. Mainly dry and warmer weather is expected under high pressure Friday through the weekend. Scattered showers are expected today with a crossing upper level low, the remnants of Irma. The showers should decrease in coverage by afternoon as the low opens into a trough, and the trough axis moves E into wrn PA.
1049 AM EDT Thu Sep 14 2017 Hydro Areas of dense fog will lift this morning and high pressure will bring fair weather through the end of the week.
Otherwise VFR conditions are expected today as south winds return and high pressure builds aloft. Today Through Friday Night Water vapor satellite imagery this morning shows the remnant upper low associated with Irma pushing northeastward through the Ohio river valley. Over the southern Rockies and into west Texas evidence of upper level ridging can be seen, while another upper low shifts east through southern California. Upper ridging will begin to shift east through Texas and the southern plains today as the aforementioned southern Cal low moves northeast into Utah and Colorado. Lastly, the forecast will be a dry one with the upper ridge overhead.
Shra/tsra will likely initiate arnd 18Z once again, and become focused across the interior peninsula as a mid-level ridge axis drifting nwwd into the region will lead to weaker steering currents compared to yesterday. /issued 401 AM EDT Thu Sep 14 2017/ Latest surface analysis shows high pressure sitting stagnant over the southeast CONUS.
Today and Tonight Temperatures are going to warm up again today and most locations will be in the low to mid 80s.
Maybe the one noticeable change is slightly cooler mid/upper level temps compared to last night. Ridge of high pressure will build over along the Eastern Seaboard creating a weak onshore flow through the weekend.
/Issued 232 AM CDT Thu Sep 14 2017/ Upper level ridge of high pressure over the Panhandles will get displaced to the south and east today. The showers and thunderstorms may have a chance to move all the way across the Panhandles tonight as an upper level short wave trough in the southwest flow aloft helps to keep the activity going through the night. A southwest flow aloft will prevail across the Panhandles through the rest of the forecast as a large trough develops over the western U. This trough is expected to be a focus for shower and thunderstorm development in the afternoon and evening.
A trailing upper trough will move into the area this afternoon, kicking the cold front eastward. Upper level trough will push into the region today, bringing cooler air and isolated to scattered rain showers to the area. Temperatures Friday night will be warmer than guidance as a moderate west to northwest keeps the atmosphere well mixed. Showers will taper off in SE Oregon early Friday morning, but wrap around moisture associated the the low pressure will continue in the Idaho zones, especially focused on the central Idaho mountains on Friday.
930 AM PDT Thu Sep 14 2017 A trough of low pressure will bring unseasonably cool weather through Friday along with patchy morning drizzle or light showers on mainly the coastal mountain slopes and foothills.
626 AM CDT Thu Sep 14 2017 Latest water vapor satellite imagery indicates upper level trough over the Pacific Northwest/British Columbia/Alberta Canada and upper level ridge over the central High Plains. Latest 07z surface analysis shows ridge over the Ohio River valley and latest metars indicated patchy dense fog over the favored areas of central Wisconsin and the Wisconsin River valley. Upper level ridge begins to amplify over the central United States today and allows warmer air aloft to advect into the forecast area.
1100 AM EDT Thu Sep 14 2017 A few showers are possible today with the remnant upper level low of Irma. Mainly dry and warmer weather is expected under high pressure Friday through the weekend. Isolated to scattered showers are expected today with a crossing upper level low, the remnants of Irma. The showers should decrease in coverage by late afternoon as the low opens into a trough, and the trough axis moves E into wrn PA.
High pressure will build into the Mid Atlantic for the weekend. Lows tonight will be in the lower to mid 60s with mid 50s west. Conditions will dry out Friday night with lows in the lower 60s.
917 AM EDT Thu Sep 14 2017 Update Areas of dense fog will lift this morning and high pressure will bring fair weather through the end of the week.
The precip water remains low w/ a bit of ridging aloft. In it's wake, a weak upper trough is presently situated over the northern gulf coast where it is expected to remain over the next couple of days. With plenty dry air in the low and mid levels of the atmosphere, the trough will have little material impact on today's weather. By Friday, mid level winds turn southerly in response to ridging across the northeastern gulf at around 700 MB.
For today we deal with the trough pushing in from the west, with an increasing southwesterly gradient leading to gusty winds by this afternoon. Most model guidance and the official NHC track slowly draws her northward around the influence of the ridge that is in the process of reconsolidating over portions of north central Mexico and southwest Texas.
A warming will get underway today as skies clear slowly from west to east as low pressure finally lifts northeast out of the region. Light southwest winds and a return to some sunshine should help most locations breaK back into the lower half of the 80s.
Issued by National Weather Service AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX 939 AM EDT Thu Sep 14 2017 Isolated showers ongoing this morning, mostly focused near and north of the Lower Keys where slightly deeper moisture and a weak convergent zone reside.
1042 AM EDT Thu Sep 14 2017 High pressure now over the region will give way to increasing moisture and a weak low pressure system associated with the remnants of Irma through Friday. High pressure will build into the region for the coming weekend. A strong short wave impulse will become negatively tilted as it ejects ENE late in the weekend, serving to slightly flatten the top of ridging over New England. The northern stream ridge will build a bit more as the short wave moves into northern Canada. Late in the week sharp ridging will dominate the eastern CONUS as Jose moves farther out to sea.
Update through this evening: Residual weak troughing remains draped southwest over the Lower MS Valley in the wake of final departed remnants of Irma. Otherwise, temperatures will continue to trend warmer, but still certainly not above normal yet for mid September. Mid level troughing will linger over the region today while surface ridging noses across the southeast states from the east. Just east of the mid level trough axis, across our southeast zones, PWATs will remain above an inch and a half. Temperatures will top out closer to normal but, will still be a couple degrees cooler than normal at most locations. Cooler than normal temperatures will continue tonight but the warming trend started today will continue into Friday.
401 AM PDT Thu Sep 14 2017 A few showers possible later today and tonight across the northern mountains as a cold front slides south. Cooler temperatures today, then readings return to around average for the weekend. Temperatures are cooler ranging from the upper 30s in the mountain valleys to the 60s to around 70 in the Central Valley. Northern stream trough deepens along the West Coast today and pushes a cold front south later today and tonight. Dry and milder weather returns for the weekend as the trough weakens across NorCal.
849 AM EDT Thu Sep 14 2017 High pressure now over the region will give way to increasing moisture and a weak low pressure system associated with the remnants of Irma through Friday. High pressure will build into the region for the coming weekend. A strong short wave impulse will become negatively tilted as it ejects ENE late in the weekend, serving to slightly flatten the top of ridging over New England. The northern stream ridge will build a bit more as the short wave moves into northern Canada. Late in the week sharp ridging will dominate the eastern CONUS as Jose moves farther out to sea.
Better coverage will be south and across the higher terrain. South southwesterly flow continues due to location of the low as it pushes eastward. A deformation axis on the northeastern edge of the low will encourage some shower development across the higher terrain of the Dacks by mid morning, then additional development eastward across Vermont during the afternoon. Drying trend expected for the short term as high pressure ridging builds into the region. Some residual showers possible early Friday night as 500mb trough shifts east of the North Country. Expect mostly clear to partly cloudy skies with drier air in place with building ridge.
944 AM EDT Thu Sep 14 2017 Scattered showers are expected today with the remnant upper level low of Irma. Mainly dry and warmer weather is expected under high pressure Friday through the weekend. Scattered showers are expected today with a crossing upper level low, the remnants of Irma. The showers should decrease in coverage by afternoon as the low opens into a trough, and the trough axis moves E into wrn PA.
533 AM MDT Thu Sep 14 2017 Latest upper level analysis shows an upper trough swinging across southwestern Canada and into the northwestern CONUS which is turning the upper flow over the forecast area from zonal to southwesterly. At the surface, low pressure is centered over South Dakota. Beginning today and continuing into the weekend, moist and cooler air will move into the region as the upper trough approaches and swings across the northern plains.
/issued 214 AM EST Sun Nov 12 2017/ High pressure centered across New England will maintain a northeasterly flow across the area on Sunday. On Monday, upper-level trough will dip down into the mid- Atlantic as a dry cold front will move towards the region late in the day. This front wont arrive in time to influence any changes to the weather on Monday as we'll have to wait one more day for the just slightly cooler and drier air to make it into the area. Weak upper level troughing over the eastern seaboard will hold through the week as ridging gradually builds into the western Gulf.
933 AM EST Sun Nov 12 2017 High pressure will cross the region today then exit across the maritimes Monday.
Highs today ranging from the low 60s northeast to around 70 along the coast and west of the MS/AL state line.
629 AM EST Sun Nov 12 2017 Weak low pressure will move east across the region today and today night. High pressure will build back across the region Monday and remain in control into midweek. Otherwise weak low pressure will move through the OH vly from late this afternoon through tonight. Deep moisture will spread into the area from the southwest with the low. Will bridge the two with chance pops this afternoon west. High pressure builds in on Monday as moisture pulls east.
356 AM MST Sun Nov 12 2017 Areas of fog and freezing fog will affect the Hi-Line and some of the valleys of Southwest Montana this morning. However, building high pressure aloft will bring mostly dry and breezy conditions to much of the forecast area today with temperatures remaining near seasonal averages.
707 AM EST Sun Nov 12 2017 Fair and cold conditions will prevail through this afternoon as arctic high pressure overhead slides to the east. As a result, ridges in the north will keep below 40F, and even the SE will be about 10F below normal for mid-Nov. *Light wintry mix likely Sunday Night-AM Monday *Slick spots and travel delays possible early Monday morning Forecast remains consistent tonight through Monday afternoon as persistent zonal flow aloft and return flow around retreating high pressure offshore deliver sufficient moisture for some light precipitation late tonight through Monday afternoon. The Lower Susq Valley appears likely to escape most of the wintry wx with surface temps remaining well above freezing.
An upper level trough will extend from northern British Columbia southwest to the eastern Pacific, just off the Pacific Northwest coast through tonight. Thus the PACNW will be under the southwest flow side of the trough. A low center at the base of the upper trough will swing northeast over extreme western Washington into Alberta province Monday and Monday night. This low will cause a cold front to sweep across the region Monday. Snow levels will fall behind the cold front. Winds will gradually increase over the southern Grande Ronde valley today into tonight, peaking Monday ahead of the approaching cold front.
644 AM EST Sun Nov 12 2017 A good deal of clouds will be over the area today but no precipitation is expected as high pressure persists over the area today and tonight. A low pressure system will pass to our south on Monday. No precipitation is expected with high pressure over the area and high temperatures will generally be in the 30s.
An inverted trough/wave is situated from the central Louisiana coast southward into the Gulf. However, expect winds to back around to the northeast today as the trof/wave in the Gulf makes further westward progress. Rain chances will be slim, and the current 20% chances in the grids could be overly generous, but will go ahead and let them ride for now as some of the higher res models show the potential for a few showers dotting the area this morning.
Some brief dense fog may develop across the low to mid valley around sunrise. Low temperatures tonight will be in the 60s inland to the lower 70s along the coast.
With high pressure setting up over much of Montana and a strong subsidence inversion in place, dense fog has persisted through the overnight hours, and visibility as low as 1/4 mile was common. With light winds expected to persist and temperatures anticipated to remain below freezing into the afternoon, freezing fog will be an issue today. High pressure and light winds, in addition to the persistent subsidence inversion, will likely bring a repeat of some dense fog overnight. Again, with temperatures expected to drop below freezing, this will be freezing fog and roads and sidewalks are expected to be slippery Monday morning. High temperatures on Monday will increase into the 40s or even 50s under the influence of the high pressure ridge.
the GFS is taking the low farther south, which would mean windier conditions along the coast and in our area of responsibility. The lower resolution models are lower with the amount of precipitation in the Cascades, whereas the high resolution models are much higher with precipitation and snowfall totals.
529 AM EST Sun Nov 12 2017 High pressure along the east coast will weaken today allowing a cold front to cross the area late tonight into Monday morning.
Upper ridging expanding nwd into se TX, inducing a warming trend with highs back into the 70s by mid week. Short waves around the topside of this ridge will interact with increasing instability with a few tstms possible to brush northern portions of area late Wed into early Thu as upper trough moves east across midwest. A stronger cold front movg across area early this wknd will bring cooler and drier conditions for the remainder of the upcoming wknd.
1015 AM EST Sun Nov 12 2017 Strong Canadian high pressure centered off the southern tip of Nova Scotia is the source of the continued cold air damming along the lee side of the Appalachians. a southerly component to the flow above the sfc is advecting warmer. while a cold front and mid level open wave trough approaches later tonight. with most locations cooler than yesterday given abundant clouds. /Issued 308 AM EST Sun Nov 12 2017/ The wedge will hold strong today as the parent Canadian high pressure migrates across New England. Clouds will finally break Monday morning as a weak cold front traverses the area.
544 AM EST Sun Nov 12 2017 High pressure will move east today. A weak area of low pressure will pass south of New England Monday.
558 AM CST Sun Nov 12 2017 The cold front is finally showing signs of pushing through and visibility/ceilings have improved considerably. Despite the cold front passage, the addition of some sunshine should boost temperatures warmer than what we have had in the recent past with highs near 50 and some clearing means lows in the lower 30s, not dropping off too low as return flow already ensues.
928 AM EST Sun Nov 12 2017 High pressure will maintain dry and cold weather through this afternoon. Rain chances return late Sunday as low pressure approaches. With continued warm advection ahead of the low amplitude wave, most locations will remain above freezing tonight into Monday morning. Some sheltered valleys, specifically in our northeastern zones, could hold below freezing early Monday morning. It's in these locations where some light freezing rain could occur for a brief spell. With the slower and slightly warmer trend in the models combined with the bulk of likely PoPs forecast to stay of I-76, and thus as rain, the forecast will continue to trend towards low impact icing potential.
Derived image of precipitable water shows deeper moisture along the Lower to Middle Texas coast with PWAT values around 1. Short wave trough swings through the Ohio Valley tonight.
405 AM CST Sun Nov 12 2017 The cold front is finally showing signs of pushing through and visibility/ceilings have improved considerably. Despite the cold front passage, the addition of some sunshine should boost temperatures warmer than what we have had in the recent past with highs near 50 and some clearing means lows in the lower 30s, not dropping off too low as return flow already ensues.
546 AM EST Sun Nov 12 2017 High pressure will maintain dry and cold weather through this afternoon. Rain chances return late Sunday as low pressure approaches. With continued warm advection ahead of the low amplitude wave, most locations will remain above freezing tonight into Monday morning. Some sheltered valleys, specifically in our northeastern zones, could hold below freezing early Monday morning. It's in these locations where some light freezing rain could occur for a brief spell. With the slower and slightly warmer trend in the models combined with the bulk of likely PoPs forecast to stay of I-76, and thus as rain, the forecast will continue to trend towards low impact icing potential.
Winds will be light, however, winds will likely shift to northerly as a cold front passes through the area. /issued 345 AM CST Sun Nov 12 2017/ (Today and Tonight) Changes to the weather are in store beginning later this morning as another weak cold front is expected to pass through the area. A weak cold front is then expected to move into the Big Country and the Interstate 20 corridor a few hours after sunrise. Otherwise, high temperatures for this afternoon will be in the upper 50s in the Big Country to the lower 70s across the Northwest Hill Country. Then, low temperatures for tonight will drop into the low to mid 50s.
Widespread dense freezing fog last night has produced slick, icy surfaces this morning. Templer Previous discussion: With high pressure setting up over much of Montana and a strong subsidence inversion in place, dense fog has persisted through the overnight hours, and visibility as low as 1/4 mile was common. With light winds expected to persist and temperatures anticipated to remain below freezing into the afternoon, freezing fog will be an issue today. High pressure and light winds, in addition to the persistent subsidence inversion, will likely bring a repeat of some dense fog overnight. Again, with temperatures expected to drop below freezing, this will be freezing fog and roads and sidewalks are expected to be slippery Monday morning. High temperatures on Monday will increase into the 40s or even 50s under the influence of the high pressure ridge.
950 AM EST Sun Nov 12 2017 Weak low pressure will move east across the region today and today night. High pressure will build back across the region Monday and remain in control into midweek. Otherwise weak low pressure will move through the OH vly from late this afternoon through tonight. Deep moisture will spread into the area from the southwest with the low. Will bridge the two with chance pops this afternoon west. High pressure builds in on Monday as moisture pulls east.
640 AM EST Sun Nov 12 2017 Fair and cold conditions will prevail through this afternoon as arctic high pressure overhead slides to the east. As a result, ridges in the north will keep below 40F, and even the SE will be about 10F below normal for mid-Nov. *Light wintry mix likely Sunday Night-AM Monday *Slick spots and travel delays possible early Monday morning Forecast remains consistent tongiht through Monday afternoon as persistent zonal flow aloft and return flow around retreating high pressure offshore deliver sufficient moisture for some light precipitation late tonight through Monday afternoon. The Lower Susq Valley appears likely to escape most of the wintry wx with surface temps remaining well above freezing.
Adverse aviation conditions will continue through mid morning as the low clouds and fog persists. Ceilings and visibilities will gradually improve around mid morning as the low clouds and fog lift and burn off with diurnal heating. Some brief dense fog may develop across the low to mid valley around sunrise. Low temperatures tonight will be in the 60s inland to the lower 70s along the coast.
707 AM EST Sun Nov 12 2017 High pressure will cross the region today then exit across the maritimes Monday.
/17/ Today through Tonight: Latest Rap and Satellite imagery showed westerly flow aloft with low to upper ridging over the Lower Mississippi Valley. Readings prior to dawn were from the upper 40s to the lower 50s. Highs today will be around normal from the middle 60s north to the lower 70s southwest. Lows for tonight continue to be around normal from the middle 40s north to the lower 50s south.
505 AM EST Sun Nov 12 2017 High pressure will maintain dry and cold weather through Sunday afternoon. Rain chances return late Sunday as low pressure approaches. With continued warm advection ahead of the low amplitude wave, most locations will remain above freezing tonight into Monday morning. Some sheltered valleys, specifically in our northeastern zones, could hold below freezing early Monday morning. It's in these locations where some light freezing rain could occur for a brief spell. With the slower and slightly warmer trend in the models combined with the bulk of likely PoPs forecast to stay of I-76, and thus as rain, the forecast will continue to trend towards low impact icing potential.