Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
However 850 winds turn northwest later tonight in the wake of a weak trough sliding over, but not confident drying will be enough to diminish clouds. Regardless of cloud trends, a warmer and more humid air mass will spread into the region on Tuesday as height 850 temperatures increase. A surface frontal boundary nearly aligned with the 850 warm front will be near the Wisconsin and Upper Michigan border. Forcing increases over Minnesota in the afternoon as the RRQ of an upper jet let passes over the far north and a short wave trough approaches from the Northern Plains.
407 PM EDT MON JUL 4 2016 Low pressure has brought rain to the region for tonight and Tuesday morning.
Locations with the highest chances will be along and south of a Baker-Miles City-Billings Livingston line. A weak cold front will also move through the forecast area this evening bringing cooler temperatures for Tuesday. Temperatures will be cooler with readings in the upper 70s to lower 80s.
Main forecast concern over the next few days will be the excessive heat as upper ridge builds over the southern plains.
heat indices will climb above the century mark with the highest values anticipated across southeast Kansas where dewpoint temperatures are expected to remain in the mid & upper 70s.
High pressure moving into the area will keep weather dry on Tuesday. Will introduce at least patchy drizzle in southern areas as this has been somewhat more predominate given the low cigs and weak lift. sfc analysis early this morning shows low pressure over southwest MO with a quasi-stationary front extending northeast through southern Illinois and Indiana. This low is expected to ride northeast along boundary today driven by a convectively enhanced short wave. Weak area of high pressure to move in Tuesday with dry conditions into Tuesday evening.
509 PM EDT MON JUL 4 2016 A cold front will cross the region later Tuesday and stall.
For the remainder of the week, look for a slow cooling trend as an upper trough slowly sinks into Central California. This will cause 500 mb heights to lower, further deepen the marine layer, and bring in cooler temperatures.
356 PM CDT MON JUL 4 2016 Latest UA analysis and WV imagery show an impulse translating east over the lower MS valley on the nrn periphery of a broad ridge acrs the srn CONUS. Outside of convection, temperatures have climbed into the lower 90s with heat index values between 102 and 107. The ridge aloft will gradually build back over the region through the week. Meanwhile, sfc features will change little through the period as high pres continues to ridge fm the wrn Atlantic west over the Gulf. Fcst temperatures will continue to run near to abv normal, with lows in the middle to upper 70s/nr 80 and highs in the lower to middle 90s.
H5/H7 ridging over the southern half of the country is going to set up a general zonal/westerly downslope flow from the Rockies.
459 PM MDT MON JUL 4 2016 An upper level ridge will remain centered to our south while stronger westerlies will remain to our north through Tuesday night. Afternoon thunderstorms today developing over the high ridges will be steered slowly to the east. Our region will remain in the southwesterly flow aloft between high pressure over Texas and a persistant long wave trough over the Pacific Northwest.
with scattered deep convection along the trof axis from Winnipeg back towards Minot. Solar combined with thermal ridge axis nosing into the FA should lift temperatures well into the 80s with some low 90s possible.
Strong high pressure ridging aloft remains in control of the weather for region. With the high pressure comes rain free conditions. Afternoon temperatures will continue to range from the lower 90s along the coast to near 106 degrees in the upper RGV and Ranchlands. What will be of concern are the higher heat indices expected for Monday and Tuesday afternoon. strong gusty SSE winds will also be noted due to the strong pressure gradient between the high pressure over the Gulf and storm systems over the Central and Southern plains.
Storms were firing up in the vicinity of the cold front in the Dakotas as of this time. The precipitation from the day Tuesday will begin to end west to east across northeast Minnesota in the evening hours as the cold front moves southeast.
301 PM EDT MON JUL 4 2016 00Z raobs/latest wv imagery and RAP analyis show a generally zonal flow acrs the nrn Conus with rather flat upr rdg axis over scentral Canada/the Upr MS River Valley btwn some troffing in wrn Canada and Quebec. In the extended, GFS and ECMWF show a 500 mb trough in the upper Great Lakes 12z Fri that moves into the lower Great Lakes 12z Sat. The last of these lows wl drag a trof across the Upper Lakes on Wed, resulting in a wind shift to the N and lighter winds as hi pres settles nearby on Thu.
Lower level boundary will continue to dissipate today with nearly stationary elevated trough and associated s/wv progressing east. With s/wv trough exiting region any storms should stay fairly isolated.
604 PM EDT MON JUL 4 2016 Low pressure has brought rain to the region for tonight and Tuesday morning.
Still some uncertainty on timing of the front, so its possible the lower cigs will be delayed and not reach most areas until later if at all.
649 PM EDT MON JUL 4 2016 High pressure becomes centered well off the mid atlantic coast allowing a continued south flow and low pressure to pass far enough south of New England late Monday night into Tuesday to keep our region dry. Otherwise, warmer weather is expected through midweek.
229 PM MDT MON JUL 4 2016 An upper level ridge will remain centered to our south while stronger westerlies will remain to our north through Tuesday night. Afternoon thunderstorms today developing over the high ridges will be steered slowly to the east. Our region will remain in the southwesterly flow aloft between high pressure over Texas and a persistant long wave trough over the Pacific Northwest.
Westerly flow across the southwest will bring drier and warmer conditions through the week with only a slight chance of afternoon showers and thunderstorms over the White Mountains. High pressure aloft centered over Texas/northern Mexico will combine with a developing low pressure system over the Pacific Northwest to bring generally fair and dry weather to northern Arizona over the coming week. Lingering moisture will produce a slight chance of afternoon showers and thunderstorms, mainly confined to the higher terrain of eastern Arizona.
Light zonal flow aloft will continue through tomorrow, with dry and warmer air spreading across the CWA. Isolated convection over the mts this aftn has been very hesitant to move off the higher terrain, and short range models indicate that much of the activity will be done by midnight. Temps will climb into the 90s to near 100 F for the e plains, and into the mid to upper 80s for the high valleys.
We have some deep SW flow still 20-40kts in the low levels on our morning sounding and 88D VAD.
335 PM CDT MON JUL 4 2016 An area of low pressure will remain just west of the CWA tonight into the day Tuesday before pushing across and east of the area Tuesday night.
337 PM EDT MON JUL 4 2016 A cold front will cross the region later Tuesday and stall.
328 PM CDT MON JUL 4 2016 18Z surface data has high pressure over the western Great Lakes into the southern Plains. With light winds expected overnight, it is very possible that the low clouds will persist through the night and into Tuesday before dissipating.
323 PM EDT MON JUL 4 2016 The dampening of a mid level short wave feature now traversing the Ohio Valley is leading to the break down of the low level anticyclone across the eastern Great Lakes, resulting in the veering of the low to mid level winds toward the south-southwest.
318 PM CDT MON JUL 4 2016 A warm front extended from sw MO thru the Ohio valley while an upper wave is over the midwest. Temps across the Tn valley at 300 pm were in the low to mid 90s with mid/upper 60s dewpoints.
Forecast guidance does suggest these clouds will slowly break-up and move out later this evening and overnight, but not overly optimistic given weak flow within high pressure regime. Think some areas may not clear out until closer to Tuesday morning, keeping overnight lows elevated in the lower 60s.
The Mid-South is firmly in the warm sector with temps still above 80 in many locations and dewpoints in the lower to mid 70s. A mid level trough in moving into the region and convection is developing across a large swath W/NW of the Mid-South, heading east. Meanwhile a belt of 30-35 kts of mid level winds associated with the trough may help to organize a few strong to severe storms. Eastern areas, especially NE Mississippi, will have the highest rain chances this evening. Should see convection diminish as the night progresses as the mid level trough continues to weaken. The weakening mid level trough will slowly exit the region by Tuesday evening. By this point the trough is pretty weak with little shear left so expect pulse type storms.
Showers and thunderstorms continue to develop across the region ahead of the trough. Highs will be below normal today as values top out in the low to middle 80s. 850mb temperatures are expected to warm into low to mid 20s Celsius which should lead to highs in the lower to middle 90s.
Hot high pressure to the south has made it as far north as northern Nevada and northern Wyoming, while a Trough of cooler Pacific air resides over Washington, British Columbia, and Alberta. The trough will then press south allowing cooler air aloft which should mix down over the next couple days.
Higher dewpoint air and lower cloud cover across the lower lakes has been trying to advance northward into northern Michigan through the much of the day but running into trouble with deeper mixing/drying continuing to erode the leading edge. Model RH forecasts continue to suggest lower stratus that currently resides across southern Wisconsin and the lower lakes region will creep northward into northern lower Michigan mainly during the overnight hours (after midnight timeframe).
152 PM EDT MON JUL 4 2016 A weak, upper level area of low pressure will bring clouds and eventually showers and thunderstorms to parts of northeast Pennsylvania and the southern border of New York tonight. Drier air will filter in behind the low Tuesday, but an isolated shower or thunderstorm cannot be ruled out. Attm, showers may have isolated lightning, but guidance shows the brunt of the theta-e ridge is further south than previously thought, thus frequent lightning activity is now expected further south as well. The pattern will consist of a very large ridge which encompass much of the southern CONUS, with zonal flow dominating over the northeast and most of the northern CONUS. Temps will be warm and slightly above the seasonal norm as we will be just along the outer edge of the ridge.
606 PM EDT MON JUL 4 2016 Low pressure over KY will move east of the forecast area tonight and move off the mid atlantic coast Tuesday.
238 PM EDT MON JUL 4 2016 High pressure becomes centered well off the mid atlantic coast allowing a continued south flow and low pressure to pass far enough south of New England late Monday night into Tuesday to keep our region dry. Otherwise, warmer weather is expected through midweek.
A fairly significant chunk of the BC low ejects east across Canada late tonight while the remaining circulation ingests a weak PAC disturbance Tuesday morning encouraging the upper low to dig south into NRN Washington Tuesday afternoon/eve supporting breezy conditions across SE Idaho and isolated convection over the ERN highlands.
326 PM CDT MON JUL 4 2016 Water vapor imagery shows a weak upper impulse tracking across eastern OK into southern MO, with a much more potent trough over southern British Columbia/Alberta. Will keep storm chances in Thu night across most areas with the higher chances across southeast KS where capping will be minimal.
A dry air mass with westerly flow aloft will significantly limit the amount of thunderstorms through Tuesday with just an isolated storm or two over the higher terrain of Cochise and Santa Cruz counties.
High temps today are expected to be a few degree warmer than on Sun.
Today: Rather tricky forecast for the 4th of July as to how long the low stratus lingers and it's impact on temperatures. Due to the low cloud cover through the early afternoon this will keep temperatures somewhat cooler than earlier thought. Lows should mainly be in the lower to mid 60s.
The other is in the Low Rolling Plains (centered around Cottle, King and Stonewall Counties) where we have max heat indices forecast to be around 107 - not far from the heat index criteria of 110 degrees for the Rolling Plains. An elongated upper level anti-cyclone will remain centered to our south mid to late week with generally dry and hot west to southwest flow aloft through our area.
Elsewhere, skies begin to clear in the mid to late afternoon with highs in the lower 80s. For this evening's festivities, southerly winds weaken to near 5 mph as temperatures gradually fall into the low 70s Tuesday morning.
The heat and moisture across the area on Tuesday is expected to result in widespread instability across the area with potential for severe storms Tuesday afternoon and evening as low pressure tracks across South Dakota pulling a weak surface boundary into eastern Nebraska by evening.
328 PM EDT MON JUL 4 2016 Low pressure over KY will move east of the forecast area tonight and move off the mid atlantic coast Tuesday.
Slightly warmer temperatures are expected for lows tonight as a weak low level south to southwesterly flow persists across western Kansas through early Tuesday. This will draw slightly warmer air into the area which will likely bump low temperatures up a bit tonight with the 60s(F) in west central Kansas to the lower 70s(F) in south central Kansas.
The lowestarea of convection is shaping up to be northern Arkansas where morning convection started and main lift from the short wave has pushed east. Afternoon temperatures have been held down a bit today due to the clouds and rain chances, with the upper 70s to lower 80s in the north, to the lower 90s far south. On Tuesday a limited chance of convection as models are showing the upper high pressure ridge building eastward over the region.
The low amplitude of the waves is limiting model guidance agreement with respect to the explicit forecast details, but agreement is strong that we will see showers/storms roll through from time to time.
608 PM EDT MON JUL 4 2016 A warm front will lift north and track east over the Ohio Valley tonight. High pressure will build behind it on Tuesday, and a return to southerly flow will occur Tuesday night.
Today looks to be the warmer day of them all, with temperatures on Tuesday maybe a degree or two lower than today (although GFS-MOS is showing warmer temperatures.
Over the higher terrain precipitable water value will be around a half inch to a little higher. CAPE will be on the low side, generally less than 500 J/kg. Airmass temperatures do not change much, so expect highs Tuesday to be similar to today with readings reaching the lower 90s.
348 PM CDT MON JUL 4 2016 Deep convection firing along the surface trof trough west of Rolette and Rugby with Severe Thunderstorm Warnings along and ahead of that area. Following trof passage this evening. expect a west to northwest blayer flow and some slight drying in the low levels. Flat and muddy H5 flow will bring second weak shrtwv across the area early on Tuesday so expect sct tstms but somewhat cooler overall temps.
Sunny and dry conditions across central CA as it remains in between a ridge to the south and a trough to the north. The weak ridge over central CA resulting in a moderate marine layer around 2200 feet along the coast. models in good agreement for much of the forecast period and indicate the upper trough in the Pacific NW will dig south towards central CA tuesday forming a baggy trough and a dry maritime onshore flow.
Low pressure sliding across Manitoba will push a trough west to east across SD and into far western MN today, bringing a few showers and thunderstorms to the area this afternoon and evening. An additional area of low pressure organizing along the trough, over the western half of SD tonight will bring about a better chance of showers/thunderstorms overnight into Tuesday. Highs will again top out in the 90s southwest of a line from Mobridge to Watertown on Tuesday. The 12Z ECMWF, with the low tracking farther to the south, had 850MB temps of only around 17C across the entire area. Will keep the higher pops north and northeast, which has been consistent over the past couple of days.
BUT ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE MORNING AND MIDDAY AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA. THE COLD FRONT WAS NEAR THE MS RIVER EARLY THIS MORNING. IT WILL MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD TODAY AS THE ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ALONG THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO MID TN. LOWS WILL DIP TO THE LOWER 50S.
DRIER AND SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR WAS FILTERING INTO THE FA BEHIND THE FNT.
638 AM EDT FRI APR 22 2016 LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.
LOOK FOR A COUPLE DRY AND QUIET WEATHER DAYS TODAY AND TOMORROW AS WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE.
313 AM EDT FRI APR 22 2016 HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY SHIFTS FARTHER SOUTHEAST INTO THE ATLANTIC THIS MORNING. A COLD FRONT THEN APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE WEEKEND.
THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT UPPER RIDGING OVER THE WRN CONUS HAS NOW SHIFTED INTO THE CNTRL CONUS. AND BELIEVE TEMPS WILL STILL WARM INTO THE LOW 70S ACROSS NE WY AND FAR WRN SD WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPING.
417 AM EDT FRI APR 22 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION THIS MORNING WHILE LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. THE LOW WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT.
1134 PM MDT THU APR 21 2016 UPDATED AVIATION SECTION A TRANSITORY UPPER RIDGE IS MAKING IT/S WAY ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN TODAY. THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF THE ROCKIES BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS OUR NEXT UPSTREAM SYSTEM SPREADS ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THERE IS ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE UNDER THE RIDGE FOR SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THE NEXT FEW AFTERNOONS. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL ALSO BE PICKING UP AND WILL BE QUITE BREEZY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE IN THE DAY. DO NOT ANTICIPATE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS OR SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM ATTM BUT SOME SKETCHY HIGH PASS ROAD CONDITIONS COULD BE POSSIBLE AFTER SUNSET SATURDAY EVENING AS TEMPERATURES COOL BELOW FREEZING.
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED JUST OFF THE CAROLINAS COAST WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THERE SEEMS TO BE FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST THE VARIOUS SOURCES OF GUIDANCE AND ALSO CONSISTENT GUIDANCE OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS INDICATING DEEP MOISTURE ENTERING SOUTH FLORIDA ON FRIDAY IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT ENTERING THE SOUTHEAST STATES AND THE NORTHERN GULF. THE GUIDANCE HAS ALSO BEEN VERY CONSISTENT INDICATING THAT A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL TO EASTERN GULF WITH COOLING MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES. ALTHOUGH THE LATEST TREND IS A BIT COOLER THAN PREVIOUS GUIDANCE AT A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER THAN CLIMATOLOGY VALUES. THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE COLD FRONT PASSING INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA ON SATURDAY WHILE BECOMING DIFFUSE WITH LINGERING SHOWERS ON SATURDAY.
519 AM CDT FRI APR 22 2016 THIS MORNING THE UPPER CLOSED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT HAS HELPED PRODUCE THE RAINFALL OF RECENT HAS SHIFTED INTO ILLINOIS AND INDIANS. A FEW LINGERING BUT DECREASING SHOWERS OVER NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING SOUTHWEST ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND A DISTURBANCE ALOFT ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE EXITING LOW. HIGH PRESSURE ON THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BUILD INTO THE FOUR STATE REGION PROVIDING A DRY PERIOD FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEKEND. WITH PLENTY OF SUN AND RIDGING OVER THE AREA.
OVERLAID WITH MODEL STREAMLINE ANALYSIS DEPICT THE AXIS OF A MID AND UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM UPPER MICHIGAN TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS. SANDWICHED BETWEEN TWO RIDGES. AT THE SURFACE AND IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE LEVELS. BUT ALSO A SLOWLY NORTHWARD MOVING CONVERGENT BOUNDARY AND ITS ASSOCIATED SHOWERS WITH A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES LOCATED FROM 45 TO 60 NM SOUTH OF THE LOWER KEYS.
WARM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TRAVERSES THE AREA. A CLOSED MID-LEVEL LOW MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH ACTS TO MAINTAIN A TROF TO ITS SOUTH.
439 AM MDT FRI APR 22 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE NUDGING EAST TODAY ALLOWING SOUTHWEST GRADIENT WINDS TO RETURN TO THE REGION. ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY AND INCREASING CLOUD COVER WILL MAKE FOR A TRICKY WIND FORECAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY. ALSO SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS THE COLD FRONT ADVANCES EAST ACROSS THE REGION.
517 AM EDT FRI APR 22 2016 A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THIS WEEKEND.
241 AM PDT FRI APR 22 2016 A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTHERN CALIFORNIA TODAY AND TONIGHT. IT WILL BRING COOLER WEATHER, MORE CLOUDS, STRONG WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS, AS WELL AS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS TONIGHT.
634 AM EDT FRI APR 22 2016 SHOWERS EXPECTED TODAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH NEARS THE OHIO RIVER BY THIS AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING JET SUPPORT ALOFT AHEAD OF IT. RAIN CHANCES WILL TAPER DOWN FROM NW TO SE IN THE EVENING AS THE TROUGH SHIFTS EAST. RIDGING THEN BUILDS IN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE SOUTH OF THE HUDSON BAY LOW FAVORED TO REMAIN WELL TO OUR NORTH.
OUR INITIAL OPPORTUNITY FOR ELEVATED CONVECTION MAY BE DURING THE SURGE IN MILD MID LEVEL AIR OUT AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW. BUT WITH A RIDGE OVERHEAD AND BUFKIT PROFILES INDICATING BASES AROUND 14KTF. BETTER OPPORTUNITIES EXIST FOR MOISTURE SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL JET REFORMS OVER THE EASTERN CWA. AS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES EAST AND OVERHEAD. THE PERIOD STARTS OFF WITH AN UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. BUT GOING THROUGH FRONTOLYSIS AS ITS ENERGY GETS ABSORBED INTO THE TROF OVER EASTERN CANADA. UNDERNEATH DYING UPPER LOW THERE COULD BE SOME DAYTIME HEATING SHOWERS.
VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours under upper-level ridging and in relatively weak SE sfc flow. /issued 513 AM CDT FRI APR 22 2016/ Upper ridging is beginning to develop over the region resulting in westerly flow aloft. This will keep thunderstorm chances today mostly confined to the higher terrain. An upper low moving over northern Mexico will approach the region and allow for continuing rain and storm chances into Saturday. The best chances of precipitation will be across the Big Bend area closest to the upper low.
A MEDIUM AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO NORTHEAST TEXAS WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM OHIO TO THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO REACH THE I-65 CORRIDOR BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. 4 INCHES OVERNIGHT WILL LOWER TO BETWEEN THREE-FOURTHS OF AN INCH TO AROUND ONE INCH BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS. THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL ONLY BE AROUND 25 KNOTS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THE MAIN TRIGGER FOR CONVECTION WILL RELY OF THE LOW LEVEL FORCING DEPENDENT UPON THE STRENGTH OF THE COLD FRONT. AND THE HIGHEST MIXED LAYER CAPE WILL OCCUR DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER 60S.
A STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL THROUGH SOUTHEAST MONTANA THIS MORNING WILL PROPAGATE EAST TODAY AS A WARM FRONT AND APPROACH FAR SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. BREEZY SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON WITH A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND ISALLOBARIC FORCING FROM PRESSURE FALLS AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT. WITH PREFERENCE GIVEN TO THE WARMER EDGE OF GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE WEST PER VERIFICATION TRENDS.