Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
A WARM FRONT WAS LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN. THE COMBINATION OF SOUTHERLY WINDS AND SUNSHINE HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO INTO THE LOWER AND MID 60S ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA. A SOUTH WIND IN THE 5 TO 10 MPH RANGE WILL KEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED WHICH WILL HELP KEEP OUR OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES FROM ONLY FALLING INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND INTO THE LOWER AND MID-40S ELSEWHERE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
/issued 242 PM CDT WED APR 13 2016/ Weak upper level ridging will track over west Texas and southeast New Mexico through Thursday resulting in quiet weather. At the surface lee troughing will intensify with low level thermal ridging boosting temperatures to above normal values tonight through Thursday night.
756 PM EDT WED APR 13 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. 500 MB TROUGH STILL MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION THIS EVENING WITH A FEW AN AREA OF MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS. BLOCKING PATTERN ALOFT WILL ALLOW A BIG HIGH PRESSURE AREA TO SETTLE OVER THE NERN THIRD OF THE CONUS.
1008 PM EDT WED APR 13 2016 THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP QUIET WEATHER OVER CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL KEEP SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS LIGHT TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING ONCE AGAIN AND EXPECT TO SEE LOWS DROP TO THE LOWER 30S NORTHEAST TO AROUND 40 IN THE SOUTH.
This will result in a weak pressure gradient with slow moisture advection with dewpoints in the lower to middle 40s expected to gradually move north into the area later tonight into Thu.
1202 AM EDT THU APR 14 2016 EVEN AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST. SURFACE RIDGING WILL EXTEND BACK INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AND PROVIDE VFR CONDITIONS. LIGHT EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW CAN BE EXPECTED GIVEN THE POSITION OF THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER TO THE EAST. EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST WITH HIGH PRESSURE POSITIONED TO THE EAST OF THE AREA. ISSUED 248 PM EDT WED APR 13 2016 CONSENSUS AMONG THE GUIDANCE THAT THE GOA CYCLONE WILL CUT OFF OVER THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL ELICIT CONSIDERABLE DOWNSTREAM HEIGHT RISES AND THE RATHER PROGRESSIVE RIDGE TRANSITING APPROACHING THE GREAT LAKES TODAY WILL BE FORCED TO AMPLIFY IN PLACE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEREFORE REMAIN IN CONTROL THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS LOW WILL MOVE EASTWARD. AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO WEAKEN.
HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHES FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES INTO QUEBEC WITH MODEST SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA. RIDGING IS PROGGED TO AMPLIFY ACROSS THE MID SECTION OF THE COUNTRY. EXPECT TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL WARM SLIGHTLY MORE INTO THE LOW AND POSSIBLY MID 60S.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH OVER THE AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN/EXTENDED SOUTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL NC OVERNIGHT. AND MAINTAIN A DRY AIR MASS IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. MIN TEMP SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S-AROUND 40 NORTH TO THE LOWER 40S SW. LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOW 40S. AND UPPER LEVEL LOW MEANDERING OVER THE GULF COAST STATES COULD ADVECT IN ENOUGH MOISTURE ALOFT TO GENERATE SOME CLOUDS.
850 PM MDT WED APR 13 2016 ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN THIS EVENING AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT.
918 PM EDT WED APR 13 2016 HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR NORTH AND NORTHEAST.
HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER THE GREAT LAKES RESULTING IN WEAK RETURN FLOW. THIS AIR MASS WILL DOMINATE OUR CONDITIONS AHEAD OF A WEAK UPPER TROF THAT MOVES FROM CENTRAL MONTANA INTO SASKATCHEWAN TONIGHT.
918 PM EDT WED APR 13 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD EAST TOWARD THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY.
704 PM EDT WED APR 13 2016 HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. AS RIDGING ALOFT OVER THE GREAT LAKES BEGINS TO MOVE TOWARD THE EAST.
AND SLOWLY WILL BE REPLACED WITH MID-LEVEL RIDGING AND SUBSIDENCE DUE TO NEGATIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION. THE AXIS OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL SLOWLY MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE REGION DURING THE DAY THURSDAY ALONG WITH THE DRY AIR. EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES COOLER ALONG LAKE MICHIGAN.
ONLY CONCERN IS WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER MS/AL.
WHAT PCPN WE HAD AROUND THE RGV WILL BE STEADILY WINDING DOWN THIS EVENING AS THE 500 MB TROUGH TO OUR NORTH AND NORTHEAST HEADS TOWARDS THE SOUTHEASTERN U. THIS WILL ALLOW WEAK 500 MB RIDGING TO BUILD BACK IN PLACE OVER THE RGV RESULTING IN A DRIER AND MORE SUBSIDENT PATTERN.
A CONTINUED SLOW IMPROVEMENT IN CIGS IS EXPECTED FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT SVRL HOURS ACROSS MOST OF SOUTH TX DUE TO DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT BEHIND THE WK COLD FRONT THAT PUSHED THROUGH EARLIER TDA. DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT AS AN UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST.
A COLD FRONT WAS TRACKING ACROSS THE AREA. SOME SUBSIDENCE HAS WORKED IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN ZONES WITH JUST SCATTERED SHOWERS NOW FORMING JUST OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. MAINTAINED SCATTERED POPS IN THE GRIDS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND LOCATIONS NEAREST THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS HEIGHTS FALL AS A DEEP UPPER LOW APPROACHES THE GREAT BASIN.
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWED A BROAD TROUGH OVER TEXAS AND NEW MEXICO AND STRONGLY TILTED RIDGE OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND ARIZONA. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE AWAY AND BE REPLACED BY THE RIDGE FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
1216 AM EDT THU APR 14 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD EAST TOWARD THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY.
724 PM EDT WED APR 13 2016 HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS RESULTING IN CONTINUED FAIR WEATHER ACROSS OUR AREA WITH A WARMING TREND. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER 30S WITH HIGHS THURSDAY RANGING FROM THE MID 50S OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MICHIGAN AND EXTREME NORTHWEST OHIO TO THE MID 60S WEST OF U.
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC WILL RIDGE SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION. WITH TEMPERATURES VERY SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT EXPECT MAYBE A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER IN SOME SPOTS. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ON THURSDAY WHICH WILL BOOST THE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO THE MID 50S. A MID LATITUDE BLOCKING PATTERN CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY WILL GUARANTEE EXCELLENT WEATHER ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA THROUGH MUCH.
STILL EXPECT THE LOW TO BE OVER THE AREA TOMORROW.
WSR-88D AND MSAS ANALYSIS ALSO INDICATING A WEAK LOW WAS WELL OFFSHORE THE NE FL COAST (AROUND 90 NM OFFSHORE FROM SHARPENING COASTAL TROUGH). THE 18Z NAM AND HIGH-RES HRRR INDICATE THIS LOW WILL MEANDER SSW OVERNITE WHICH LIKELY HELP MAINTAIN THE LOW LEVEL WEDGE IN PLACE. STRONG LOW LEVEL WEDGE IN PLACE WITH SHARP COASTAL TROUGH OFFSHORE WILL ALSO RESULT IN LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE COAST SPREADING INLAND TONIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPING ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA.
CONCERN FOR TEMPS TOMORROW WILL BE WHERE THE WEAK BOUNDARY SETS UP WITH WARMER TEMPS TO THE SOUTH AND LESS WARM TEMPS TO THE NORTH.
/ISSUED 354 PM CDT WED APR 13 2016/ Upper low over the area will move slowly east overnight, with any lingering showers limited to southeast Oklahoma and west central Arkansas.
705 PM EDT WED APR 13 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE OHIO VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES INTO THE WEEKEND. THE HIGH TO OUR NORTHEAST OVER QUEBEC WILL EVENTUALLY DRIFT SOUTH TO NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL HAVE THE EFFECT OF TURNING WINDS FROM EASTERLY TO MORE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHERLY FOR THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY.
BUT THE SLOW MOVING NATURE OF THE UPPER LOW CAUSES SOME CONSTERNATION WITH TIMING INDIVIDUAL BOUTS OF RAIN. GIVEN A LINGERING CAD WEDGE THAT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE PROPERLY SCOURED OUT BY A COLD FRONT PASSAGE.
1217 AM EDT THU APR 14 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE OHIO VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES INTO THE WEEKEND. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NEARLY EAST OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA WITH MOST OF THE CLOUD COVER DISSIPATING. THIS AREA OF CLOUDS SHOULD MOVE EASTWARD WITH THE TROUGH AXIS. REMAINDER OF THE CLOUDS SEEM TO BE DISSIPATING WITH THE SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH. THE HIGH TO OUR NORTHEAST OVER QUEBEC WILL EVENTUALLY DRIFT SOUTH TO NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL HAVE THE EFFECT OF TURNING WINDS FROM EASTERLY TO MORE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHERLY FOR THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY.
AS A WEAK UPPER LOW REMAINS FAIRLY STAGNANT OVER NRN AR/SRN MO. WEAK UPPER LOW TO THE W CONTINUES TO USHER -SHRA INTO THE AREA. AS THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO DRIFT E.
OF PARTICULAR CONCERN IS THE INCREASING RISK OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AS COOLER AIR ALOFT COMBINES WITH AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS, HAIL, AND HEAVY RAIN.
A TOP 10 WEATHER DAY OUT THERE THIS AFTERNOON FOR MANY AREAS AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS SOUTHERN AND WESTERN MINNESOTA. MUCH COOLER TEMPS CONTINUE FURTHER EAST INTO WISCONSIN WHERE HIGHS SO FAR HAVE BEEN IN THE 50S IN THE LADYSMITH AREA. TEMPERATURES MAY END UP WARMER THAN FORECAST IN THESE STRONG WAA SCENARIOS AND MOISTURE RETURN MAY BE HAMPERED BY DEEP MIXING. THE BEST THERMAL RIDGING WILL EXTEND FROM SOUTH DAKOTA NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MN. WITH COOLER AIR ALOFT FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST. ONLY CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST WILL BE RELATED TO THIS SHORT WAVE AS IT DIVES SOUTHEAST OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND WEAKENS AS THE MEAN RIDGE HOLDS. IF THE BLOCKING RIDGE HOLDS STRONGER. EVEN IF THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN SOME.
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO APPROACH WESTERN MONTANA AND THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE ROCKIES PICKS UP AFTER MIDNIGHT. MOIST, SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING INCREASED CHANCES OF RAIN/SNOW OVER THE ROCKIES AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION.
1058 PM EDT WED APR 13 2016 HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. AS RIDGING ALOFT OVER THE GREAT LAKES BEGINS TO MOVE TOWARD THE EAST.
723 PM EDT WED APR 13 2016 A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
259 AM CDT SUN AUG 16 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS ORIENTED FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN U. TO THE GREAT LAKES AREA WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT SLOWLY SOUTHWARD FOR TODAY AS A STRONG TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. AND WAITING FOR THE DIGGING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO BOOT IT EASTWARD TOWARD MID WEEK.
WITH RIDGING ON BOTH SIDES. TRIED TO KEEP THE HIGHEST POPS IN THOSE AREAS.
457 AM EDT SUN AUG 16 2015 A WARM RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY.
Near the surface, a lee side trough of low pressure remains anchored across eastern Colorado. Temperatures/dewpoints were fairly seasonal in the lower 90s/high 50s to mid 60s respectively. Temperatures will remain fairly seasonal through Sunday, with lows in the 60s and highs in the lower 90s.
MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL THANKS TO COLDER AIR MASS BEHIND THE FRONT AND THE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER. KEEPING THE HIGHEST POPS IN OUR SOUTHEAST ZONES AND TEMPERING THEM IN SOUTHWEST MN COMPARED TO THE FOREIGN MODELS. HIGHS WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN WHAT WE HAVE BEEN EXPERIENCING.
PV ANALYSIS AND FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT UPPER HIGH CENTERED OVER WEST- CENTRAL NEW MEXICO AT 00Z SUNDAY SHIFTS INTO SOUTHWEST ARIZONA BY 00Z MONDAY. BIG UPPER TROUGH COMING ONSHORE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL BOOST THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO BEGINNING TO SOME EXTENT SUNDAY EVENING BUT ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY. THE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO PUSH INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.
A MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS IS FUNNELING INTO THE REGION REPLACING THE NEAR RECORD HEAT AND PWATS OF UP TO 2 INCHES. TEMPS TODAY TO BE ABOUT 20 DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. BY MONDAY NIGHT THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIP ARRIVES ACROSS THE SW FA AS MODELS REMAIN IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH 500MB TROUGH SWINGING INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS.
HEAVY RAIN IS ONGOING ACROSS HOLT COUNTY THIS MORNING AND THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SAGGING A COLD FRONT INTO SWRN/SCNTL NEB THIS AFTERNOON.
237 AM EDT SUN AUG 16 2015 HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION TODAY. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT THE THE COAST THIS WEEK AND BRING SUMMERTIME HEAT AND HUMIDITY THROUGH THE WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE. THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW LOW PRESSURE LINGING ALOFT ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. HIGH PRESSURE WOULD SUGGEST CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. THE UPPER LOW AND A CORE OF COOLER TEMPS MIGHT SUGGEST SOME INSTABILITY ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. THE MIXED LAYER WILL REACH TO NEAR 825 MB SO MAX SURFACE TEMPS SHOULD BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER THAN INDICATED BY 850 MB TEMPS. HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL MAINTAIN FAIR AND HUMID CONDITIONS.
UPPER LOW PROGRESSES SOUTH AND WEST TODAY AND MONDAY WITH THE CONTINUED INCREASE IN MOISTURE. AND JUST A BIT COOLER ON MONDAY WITH ADDITIONAL RAIN/CLOUDS.
312 AM EDT SUN AUG 16 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS TODAY.
617 AM EDT SUN AUG 16 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS TODAY.
114 AM EDT SUN AUG 16 2015 A STRENGTHENING RIDGE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. IT WILL BE MILD AND MUGGY OVERNIGHT WITH FAIRLY UNIFORM DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S AND MIN TEMPS RANGING FROM AROUND 60F NORTH TO THE MID 60S SOUTHEAST. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL DOMINATE SUNDAY GIVING US A VERY WARM DAY WITH JUST A MINIMAL CHANCE FOR A STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. OVERALL RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE EASTERN U.
LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CONUS BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN AS SHORT WAVE TROUGHS ROTATE AROUND UPPER LEVEL LOW NORTH OF HUDSONS BAY. OTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WILL MOVE FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS.
THE WEATHER WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS AND CLEAR SKIES PRESENT. LOW CHC POPS APPEAR POSSIBLE MONDAY MORNING ACROSS NORTHWESTERN AND WESTERN OK AS THE MID LEVEL THETAE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EASTWARD OVER THE PANHANDLES AND SUBTLE MID LEVEL ASCENT DEVELOPS ALONG A BAROCLINIC ZONE.
LIFT FROM AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH JUST WEST OF THE AREA HAS BEEN SUSTAINING THESE STORMS IN ADDITION TO THE PRESENCE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET THERE AS WELL. EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOWS RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES WITH A TROUGH ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. UPPER LOW OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SHIFTS EAST WITH FALLING HEIGHTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. COLD FRONT WILL BE AT LEAST APPROACHING THE REGION BY THE AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE DRAMATICALLY COOLER COMPARED TO THE HEAT WE HAVE HAD THE LAST FEW DAYS WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S AND 70S RATHER THAN 90S. THIS FEATURE/PATTERN GENERATES GOOD LIFT FROM A COMBINATION OF OVERRUNNING AND FRONTOGENESIS FROM THE SNOWIES DOWN INTO NE WYOMING AS COOLER AIR CONTINUES TO INVADE FROM THE NORTH.
1026 PM PDT SAT AUG 15 2015 A cooler air mass will linger over the Pacific Northwest, with a continued threat of showers and some thunderstorms across the northern counties tonight. This will result in cooler temperatures tonight as we should radiate quite effectively.
WEAK UPPER TROUGH PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF THE SE STATES WHILE HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC HOLDS NEARLY STEADY OVER THE MID ATLANTIC BASIN. WITH BROAD UPPER TROUGHING/A GENERAL WEAKNESS ALOFT LINGERING ACROSS THE SE REGION COUPLED WITH A PERSISTENT INFLOW OF GULF ENERGY/MOISTURE. FOR SUNDAY SHRA/TSRA WILL ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING AND AN UPPER TROF ACROSS THE REGION.
/ISSUED 341 PM EDT SAT AUG 15 2015/ UPPER LEVEL PATTERN HAS A WEAK TROUGH ANCHORED ACROSS THE MS VALLEY REGION. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST IS RESULTING IN A MOIST EASTERLY FLOW. THE UPPER TROUGH COMBINED WITH OROGRAPHIC LIFT FROM THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW IS RESULTING IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING IN THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTH GA THIS AFTERNOON. BUT ISOLATED SHOWERS COULD LINGER ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH GA OVERNIGHT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH JUST WEST OF THAT AREA. THIS COUPLED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH DRIFTING CLOSER TO THE AREA SUGGEST THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL REMAIN ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH GA.
140 AM EDT SUN AUG 16 2015 A STRENGTHENING RIDGE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. IT WILL BE MILD AND MUGGY OVERNIGHT WITH FAIRLY UNIFORM DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S AND MIN TEMPS RANGING FROM AROUND 60F NORTH TO THE MID 60S SOUTHEAST. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL DOMINATE SUNDAY GIVING US A VERY WARM DAY WITH JUST A MINIMAL CHANCE FOR A STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. OVERALL RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE EASTERN U.
THIS WILL FLATTEN THE RIDGE OVER THE SRN ROCKIES AND BRING A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK AS A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE STATE.
Although the flow aloft will remain fairly weak across the Western High Plains, steep low/mid level lapse rates and SBCAPE values in excess of 1000 J/KG will be enough to support thunderstorms in the vicinity of the trough axis and approaching cold front. Look for highs up into the lower to mid 90s(F) once again this afternoon.
UPPER LEVEL JET ENERGY AND A DIGGING L/W TROF ACRS CENTRAL CANADA WAS CONTINUING THE UPPER RIDGE DAMPENING PROCESS FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. FOR HEAT INDEX READINGS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S THIS AFTERNOON. IF THE HIGH CLOUDS DON/T MAKE IT OR THIN OUT AS THEY SPRAWL SOUTHEASTWARD. THE INITIAL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL ARRIVE AND SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS. WITH THE HIGHEST COVERAGE EXPECTED FROM LATE AFTERNOON IN MONDAY NIGHT.
However, southerly flow in the mid-levels and easterly flow in the low-levels will be pumping plenty of moisture into the region.
323 AM EDT SUN AUG 16 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA ALLOWING A WARM FRONT TO DEVELOP OVER LAKE ERIE MONDAY NIGHT.
/issued 245 PM CDT SAT AUG 15 2015/ WV imagery shows the upper-lvl ridge straddling AZ/NM, leaving West Texas and Southeast New Mexico under NE flow aloft.
102 AM EDT SUN AUG 16 2015 HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
/ISSUED 352 AM CDT SUN AUG 16 2015/ UPPER RIDGE WILL HOLD SWAY TODAY INTO MONDAY.
332 AM EDT SUN AUG 16 2015 WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RESIDE OVER THE AREA INTO SUNDAY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A WEAK TROUGH SANDWICHED BETWEEN THE STRONG AND PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY AND A RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A RELATIVELY CAPPED ATMOSPHERE THIS AFTERNOON WITH LITTLE TO NO UPPER SUPPORT IN THE REGION AND VERY WEAK FLOW IN THE LOWEST 20KFT.
THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTING OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. UPPER TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INCLUDES AN INITIAL WAVE MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN TODAY.
LOW LEVEL THICKNESS FCST ALONG WITH 850MB TEMPS SUGGEST HIGHS SHOULD REACH A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN SAT. MONDAY WILL FEATURE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOCATED NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA SERVING AS ONE MAIN FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS, BUT IT ALSO APPEARS LIKELY THAT A LEAD SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHEAST KANSAS DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP.
SATELLITE DATA AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS PLACE THE CENTER OF A WEAK UPPER LOW JUST TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE MIDSOUTH WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW NEARER TO THE SURFACE. TEMPERATURES ARE 6-8 DEGREES COOLER NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER THAN THEY ARE NEAR AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. SHORT TERM MODELS HINT AT THE POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME MORNING SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED WEAK UPPER LOW AS IT CONTINUES TO RETROGRADE. POPS WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY AS THE WEAK UPPER LOW MOVES NORTH AND SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES TRANSPORTING MORE MOISTURE INTO THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL STICK AROUND INTO MIDWEEK AS SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO INCREASE AHEAD OF A APPROACHING TROUGH.
644 AM EDT SUN AUG 16 2015 A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHWEST OF THE REGION SUNDAY BEFORE MOVING BACK OVER THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. WARMER TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY AND MONDAY AS THE AIR MASS CONTINUES TO MODIFY. MOSTLY DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO RETROGRADE WEST INTO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RUN A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER THAN THEY WERE YESTERDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL THEN BEGIN TO SHEAR OUT AND HEAD EAST BACK OVER THE CWA. THE EURO IS SLIGHTLY STRONGER AND FURTHER NORTH WITH THE LOW TRACK THAN THE GFS.
THE LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS A TROUGH ALONG THE TEXAS COAST EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS TROUGH IS AIDING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION ALONG THE COAST PER AREA RADAR DATA AND THE LIGHTNING DETECTION NETWORK. THE ABOVE MENTIONED TROUGH WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OR PERHAPS MIGRATE WESTWARD SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. SOME LATE NIGHT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN/T BE RULED OUT GIVEN THE TROUGH AXIS IN THE REGION.
617 AM EDT SUN AUG 16 2015 A WARM RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY.
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS 500 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ROUGHLY ALONG THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST AND EASING IN THE DIRECTION OF THE LOWER TEXAS COAST.
623 AM EDT SUN AUG 16 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA ALLOWING A WARM FRONT TO DEVELOP OVER LAKE ERIE MONDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTH WILL PUT THE GREAT BASIN UNDER DRY WESTERLY FLOW WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS MOVING OVERHEAD. MONDAY THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BEGINS TO TRANSITION MORE NORTHWESTERLY AS A WEAK DRY COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA.
UPPER LEVEL, NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY, IS MOVING SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO RIVER THIS HOUR. THAT FEATURE OVER THE BOOTHEEL WILL START TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD AS IT GETS PICKED UP BY AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. COOLER AIR ALOFT SHOULD ALLOW EASIER STORM DEVELOPMENT.
DESPITE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTHEAST. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL BE GREATER FOR EARLY WEEK AS A SHARPER UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
225 AM CDT SUN AUG 16 2015 A clear and mild morning is underway across the region at this hour, as a broad area of high pressure remains in control. Temperatures tonight will then be a bit warmer compared to this morning, as southeasterly winds begin to advect in a warmer and more moist airmass.
430 AM EDT SUN AUG 16 2015 A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHWEST OF THE REGION SUNDAY BEFORE MOVING BACK OVER THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. WARMER TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY AND MONDAY AS THE AIR MASS CONTINUES TO MODIFY. MOSTLY DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO RETROGRADE WEST INTO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RUN A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER THAN THEY WERE YESTERDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL THEN BEGIN TO SHEAR OUT AND HEAD EAST BACK OVER THE CWA. THE EURO IS SLIGHTLY STRONGER AND FURTHER NORTH WITH THE LOW TRACK THAN THE GFS.
327 AM CDT SUN AUG 16 2015 The upper ridge that brought all the hot wx to the region will continue to move away from the area.
DEEP RIDGING WILL KEEP IT DRY AND ON THE HOT SIDE TODAY. PEAK NAM CAPE VALUES SHAPING UP TO BE AROUND 2000 J/KG WITH THE GFS MUCH LESS THOUGH THE GFS MAY BE A BIT TOO DRY IN THE LOW LEVELS.
SHORT TERM: (THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON) AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER WESTERN KY IS FORECAST TO MOVE WESTWARD INTO SOUTHEAST MO BY 00Z MONDAY.