Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Ridge quickly building over the region today with pleasant conditions for most locations. Strong trough moving into Pacific NW will induce backing flow aloft over our region Sunday.
The ridge axis provides east and southeast low level flow but with a gradient relaxed enough to allow an onshore component near the coast this afternoon. High pressure ridging north of the waters will maintain east and southwest although a relaxed gradient will allow an afternoon seas breeze to shift winds to southwest and west.
302 PM CDT Sat Apr 22 2017 A cold front boundary will continue to dive to the south through the evening hours, which is expected to bring chances of rain showers mainly across the northern half of the forecast area through the night tonight. Temperatures overnight will range from the lower 30s north to the mid to upper 30s south.
242 PM CDT Sat Apr 22 2017 Early afternoon surface analysis indicated ridge axis from southwest MN into northwest KS. Some patchy frost appears possible in the favored cooler areas of the CWA. Mixing to around 850 mb yields highs in the lower 70s most places.
With the rain ending, expect a coolish weekend with gradual clearing from west to east this afternoon, with clear skies tonight through Sun, as a weak upper level ridge moves across the area with north- northeast surface flow.
Sunday will be cooler, breezy, and showery behind a weak cold front. Temperatures are warming under the filtered sunshine with readings some 4 to 13 degrees warmer than yesterday at this time. Watching a convective band associated with a cold front swinging east of the PDX and heading toward the Cascades. A cold front with the convective band will push across the region this afternoon.
High pressure today/tonight and Sunday will keep us dry, and as it shifts to the south, will also be responsible for milder air moving in ahead of a lee low. 850mb temperatures warm today from an initial starting point of between +3 and +5C to +7 and +9C this evening - with warm advection continuing overnight in southwest flow in the low levels.
Updated for 18Z aviation discussion 18Z TAF discussion: The primary concerns for aviation interests will be any +TSRA along/ahead of the cold front pushing across the forecast area this afternoon/early evening, followed by IFR category post- frontal stratus for tonight into Sunday morning along with gusty northwest surface winds. We still expect storms with the potential for severe wind gusts/hail to develop ahead of a cold front over Central MS. Latest analyses indicate the cold front is approaching northwest portions of the ArkLaMiss with winds having shifted at El Dorado and Pine Bluff, AR.
116 PM MDT Sat Apr 22 2017 Latest upper air analysis depicts a closed low over Eastern Kansas. Behind the closed low a ridge was building in from the northwest.
304 PM CDT Sat Apr 22 2017 Skies are cloudy across much of the forecast area this afternoon with temperatures ranging from the lower 50s to lower 80s. Low pressure was centered somewhere between Tupelo and Oxford in Mississippi at this time with a cold frontal extending from the low into northern Louisiana. The cold front will move out of the forecast area by this evening which should bring an end to the thunderstorm threat. Temperatures will get cooler tonight with lows in the mid 40s to lower 50s. The cold front is expected to stall out Sunday over eastern Alabama which will keep at least a chance of showers over most of the forecast area east of the Mississippi River. Temperatures will remain on the cool side on Sunday with highs in the low to mid 60s.
This afternoon through Sunday, A slight severe weather risk will continue through late afternoon ahead of the cold front which is roughly along the Natchez Trace Parkway as of late afternoon.
Clouds will be decreasing into the evening as high pressure settles in. Tonight winds will start to die down and skies will begin to clear as high pressure moves over the forecast area. Strong radiational cooling will lead to temperatures approaching freezing. With clear skies and returning south winds temperatures will be back in the low 70s.
335 PM CDT Sat Apr 22 2017 At 3 PM, high pressure, both at the surface and aloft, was producing light winds and mostly sunny skies. Temperatures were in the lower and mid 60s. For tonight and Sunday morning, a Canadian cold front will move south through northern Minnesota and northern Wisconsin. High temperatures will be in the lower and mid 60s north of the front and range from upper 60s to mid 70s south of this front. This lowered the relative humidity values into the mid to upper 20s along and south of Interstate 94.
A weak low pressure area moved northeast across the forecast area. An upper trough will move across the region this afternoon and evening with a negative tilt.
Area still under influence of inverted trough along the Laramie Range this morning. Upper trough moves to the east through the morning today with rain/snow coverage decreasing.
337 PM CDT Sat Apr 22 2017 Post-frontal ridge of high pressure will settle into the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles tonight.
Elongated west-east mid/upper level trough centered over MO will swing southeastward through tonight into TN extending southwest into LA. High pressure from the Plains into the southwestern Great Lakes will clear our skies out after midnight across the region. With precipitation moving out of the southern parts of our forecast area this evening and skies clearing as High pressure moves into the region, expect temperatures to fall into the lower-mid 40s from north to south across the area. High pressure will extend from the south central Great Lakes southward into the lower MS valley keeping the area dry and pleasant for the next few days. We will be between storm systems, in fact with one moving up the east coast, and the next weather system for us developing over the High Plains.
Otherwise, increasing clouds with lows in the lower to middle 60s.
An upper level jet max around 75kts was rotating around a broad positive tilt trough over the Mississippi Valley. Tornadoes are not our of the question but will be the lowest threat and non zero. As a cold front slowly pushes southward across the state, low stratus and showers will be likely overnight tonight, and have gone ahead and placed IFR cigs for all terminals into the planning period. 56/GDG Rain chances in the northern counties this morning, becoming more widespread across the region by the afternoon and evening as a cold front moves through.
556 PM CDT Sat Apr 22 2017 At 3 PM, high pressure, both at the surface and aloft, was producing light winds and mostly sunny skies. Temperatures were in the lower and mid 60s. For tonight and Sunday morning, a Canadian cold front will move south through northern Minnesota and northern Wisconsin. High temperatures will be in the lower and mid 60s north of the front and range from upper 60s to mid 70s south of this front. This lowered the relative humidity values into the mid to upper 20s along and south of Interstate 94.
238 PM CDT Sat Apr 22 2017 Main concerns in this forecast cycle are first period chances of light rain and cooler temperatures. The northwest to north surface wind flow has brought much cooler temperatures to AR, and temperatures have only reached the 50s to 60s over most areas.
Todays max temperature should be reached by early afternoon, then a cooler air mass moves in this afternoon. A cold front will move through from the southwest this morning bringing rainfall, gusty south winds and steepening, building seas. Weak high pressure will build in from the southwest this afternoon as wave heights peak.
The clouds associated with this precip will keep temepratures cooler north of I-94, but areas near I-90 should see highs near 70 again on Sunday. Early afternoon satellite imagery and surface obs showed clear skies across Minnesota and Wisconsin, but a fairly potent cold front was in place over the International Border.
229 PM CDT Sat Apr 22 2017 Surface analysis this afternoon shows a low with attendant cold front gradually moving eastward through MS at the moment. Plenty of low level moisture is in place this afternoon with Td generally in the low to mid 60s.
SHORT TERM (Tonight through Sunday Night): The highly anticipated cold front is currently draped across South Texas or from an area just to the northwest of Laredo and angled northeast toward Refugio. Front will move in the Northern Ranchlands over the next few hours across the western portions of the CWA, before the northeastern edge of the front catches up as the upper level low dragging the front continues to pull away across the mid Mississippi Valley. A much cooler day is expected and Sunday with lower dewpoints.
312 PM CDT Sat Apr 22 2017 Tightening low pressure area over the southeast CONUS this afternoon with departing upper trough and associated convection shifting south and east of the region. Ridge axis centers over the CWA by Sunday morning with dewpoints falling into the lower 30s. Skies are mostly sunny, and with the stronger sun angle this time of year, opted for highs a few degrees warmer than consensus guidance into the lower 70s. Sunday night the lower boundary layer should be mixed as south winds increase through the night as low pressure deepens over the western high plains.
259 PM PDT Sat Apr 22 2017 Dry today then several Pacific storms move through bringing cooler temperatures and mainly light precipitation.
324 PM CDT Sat Apr 22 2017 High pressure building over the Plains and reaching eastward into the Midwest this afternoon. overnight lows have come up to the lower 40s. High pressure ridge drifts eastward overnight on Sunday.
Ongoing MCS this morning has enough deep layer CAPE, pwat, as well as a high freezing level to produce some good rainfall rates/totals across the west and north. If the surface recovers and warms towards the highest model guidance, low level lapse rates may be steep enough to help low level instability and can not rule out an isolated tornado. With the upper low nearby and a strong mid level jet, storm motions should be around 30 knots, but training of convection over the same areas could produce a high risk for flash flooding. The upper low will continue to dig southward overnight and into Sunday, and the closed low will spin overhead through the day as the upper jet helps it dig to the southeast.
Cold front continues to push southward this afternoon, with a 10-15 degree drop in its wake. Much cooler with lows in the 50s and lower RH values expected overnight. Clear skies and light winds by Sun night will lead to even cooler mn temps around 50 to mid 50s. A cold front is expected to approach the bays and nearshore waters by late afternoon into early evening then push across the offshore w waters by around 9 PM. A strong offshore flow is expected to develop in the wake of the cold front.
101 PM EDT Sat Apr 22 2017 Atlantic high pressure will prevail through tonight.
/issued 407 AM CDT Sat Apr 22 2017/ Much cooler today with brisk northerly winds, especially this morning.
319 PM EDT Sat Apr 22 2017 Clouds will continue to shift southeast into the overnight as high pressure and drier air pushes in. High pressure remains in control for Sunday allowing for sunshine and highs between 65 and 70.
The associated cold front had already moved through most of SE Texas and as of 3:00 PM was on the verge of moving onto the coastline.
333 PM CDT Sat Apr 22 2017 For the near term, now through sunset, cold front located from Beach to Bismarck to just north of Jamestown. Temperatures have warmed into the upper 60s to 70F in south central along and just ahead of the cold front. The cold front will continue a slow progress to the southern border by 03z Sunday. Expect snowfall accumulations of between 1 and 3 inches from Minot southeast to Harvey and Carrington; essentially between the Highway 2 and 52 corridor tonight through Sunday morning. Morning snow across north central ND, otherwise mostly cloudy and cooler Sunday with highs around 40F north to the mid 50s far south.
213 PM CDT Sat Apr 22 2017 Upper trough over the Central Plains will be swinging east as upper ridge builds in from the west.
330 PM CDT Sat Apr 22 2017 For the near term, now through sunset, cold front located from Beach to Bismarck to just north of Jamestown. Temperatures have warmed into the upper 60s to 70F in south central along and just ahead of the cold front. The cold front will continue a slow progress to the southern border by 03z Sunday. Expect snowfall accumulations of between 1 and 3 inches from from Minot southeast to Harvey and Carrington; essentially between the Highway 2 and 52 corridor tonight through Sunday morning. Mostly cloudy and cooler Sunday with highs around 40F north to the mid 50s far south.
310 PM CDT Sat Apr 22 2017 Trough that brought the rain yesterday has moved southeast to southern CONUS. A ridge is situated over the Plains which will remain for the rest of the weekend. After the trough fully exited the Plains, there is still residual moisture and cloud cover which has left the southeast quadrant of Kansas with temperatures in the mid to upper 50s. Cloud cover has begun to break through the day and will continue to do this evening as drier air moves in with the above mentioned ridge. Its axis over the area and no cloud cover with the cooler air temperatures could result in patchy frost across central Kansas as mentioned in the previous few decisions.
244 PM CDT Sat Apr 22 2017 Cool high pressure continues to build into West Texas this afternoon on breezy northerly winds, with 19Z temperatures only in the 50s and lower 60s.
A passing cold front brought cooler weather to the Bay Area today. A cold front continues to push through the forecast area this afternoon. One of the warmest locations is actually the higher peaks along the Big Sur coast. Cooler temps and ample low level moisture will allow for some stratus to develop.
556 PM EDT Sat Apr 22 2017 Low pressure tracking toward the Southeastern United States will continue to fuel rain chances over the ridges for the start of the new week. This scenario should confine rain chances to the I 68 vicinity, and over the ridges and eastern CWA periphery during the period.
Upper level high pressure continues to dominate southern and much of central California this afternoon. while the desert experienced temperatures in the low to mid 80s. An upper low will approach the Washington State and British Columbia coastline tonight into Sunday.
135 PM EDT Sat Apr 22 2017 Clouds will continue to shift southeast into the overnight as high pressure and drier air pushes in. High pressure remains in control for Sunday allowing for sunshine and highs between 65 and 70.
317 PM EDT Sat Apr 22 2017 High pressure from the central plains to the western Great Lakes will build into the region tonight through Sunday.
337 PM CDT Sat Apr 22 2017 A cold front, currently running east/west over central North Dakota, will continue sinking southward this afternoon and through tonight. While there is good agreement among models with the placement of the warm front Sunday afternoon, a slight difference of 40 miles will yield a drastic changes in temperatures. North of the front, highs may only reach the lower 50s at best.
1205 PM CDT Sat Apr 22 2017 MVFR ceilings are expected to dissipate late this afternoon as upper low continues to pull east and with loss of daytime heating. Preferred the cooler side of guidance lows tonight. Sunday will be sunny and warmer than today with light surface winds.
An approaching upper level trough will bring cooler weather to the district today along with increasing clouds. A quick update to the forecast this morning as a cold front moves through the Bay Area.
Southerly surface winds are on the increase as the lee trof strengthens, and should keep lows up in the 40s for Sunday night.
The pattern of a high pressure ridge along the west coast and a broad low pressure trough over the eastern two- thirds of the United States will persist into the coming weekend.
507 AM EST Mon Dec 25 2017 Cold upper low pressure is generating snow showers this Christmas morning in the wake of last nights frontal passage. Changes for the morning issuance were primarily cosmetic as light snow transitioned to snow showers overnight in the wake of the exiting low pressure system. These developed with the advance of the systems cold front and dropped a quick inch or two for many locations this morning. Cold advection in the wake of that front will support additional development of showers and possible squalls, especially in the ridges and along the I 80 corridor where the Winter Weather Advisory was maintained for the morning. Arctic air will continue to flow over the region as 850 mb temps are projected to fall through the negative teens into the lower -20s.
Main things will be the breezy wind speeds today followed by a wind shift tonight as a cold front passes.
A ridge anchored over the West Coast will ensure a continuation of dry and generally mild conditions through the remainder of the month.
519 AM EST Mon Dec 25 2017 Low pressure will move rapidly to the northeast today. The best gusts should be on the ridges after some mixing kicks in this morning. Temps will only get into the teens for maxes in the NW, and near freezing in the far SE on Tuesday. An upper level low will move through the Great Lakes and through New York.
Ridge of high pressure over eastern OK extending down into the Hill country maintaining our cool northerly flow this morning then the ridge weakens and easterly flow develops this afternoon.
A dry and cold Christmas Day is on tap as a much colder airmass has moved into the area in the wake of a cold front. Cold air advection will continue through the day as high pressure builds southward.
/issued 328 AM CST Mon Dec 25 2017/ Merry Christmas! The passage of a series of upper level lows over the Great Lakes/North East and the building of a large amplitude ridge out West will keep northwest flow aloft over the region for the foreseeable future. These warmer temps will be short lived and the first cold air intrusion occurs.
811 AM EST Mon Dec 25 2017 Cold upper low pressure is generating snow showers this Christmas morning in the wake of last nights frontal passage. Changes for the morning issuance were primarily cosmetic as light snow transitioned to snow showers overnight in the wake of the exiting low pressure system. These developed with the advance of the systems cold front and dropped a quick inch or two for many locations this morning. Cold advection in the wake of that front will support additional development of showers and possible squalls, especially in the ridges and along the I 80 corridor where the Winter Weather Advisory was maintained through the morning. Arctic air will continue to flow over the region as 850 mb temps are projected to fall through the negative teens into the lower -20s.
1058 AM EST Mon Dec 25 2017 A thin line of light reflectivities on KBYX Doppler radar has pushed south of the Lower Keys and beyond our Atlantic offshore waters. Moisture levels have dipped slightly since yesterday morning, well ahead of a weakening cold front sagging across south/central Florida. High pressure will continue to expand across the southeast states this week.
By mid week, an area of low pressure will develop along the Gulf Coast with moisture spreading northward into the Lower Mississippi Valley. At the same time, a reinforcing arctic cold front will drop south across our forecast area late Tuesday night.
All of this is due to a warm front approaching from the west, and so much of the wind is from the west and thus will only be strong enough for blowing snow in the eastern Magic Valley and lower Snake River plain. With all the cloud cover, temperatures will be staying fairly mild at night and temperatures during the afternoon starting to get slightly above freezing.
Broad 500 mb troughing remains over the area this forecast period with cold air entrenched and lake effect snow continuing as well. In the extended, GFS and ECMWF show a broad 500 mb trough over most of N. This trough remains over the area through Mon with the cold air remaining as well. The arrival of the arctic air mass will also result in periods of heavy freezing spray late tonight into mid week. Heavy Freezing Spray Warning until 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ Tuesday for LSZ162-240>251-263>267.
High pressure at the surface will slide south of the area today and slide into the Ohio Valley tonight. The low level flow will become southerly on the backside of the high but the gradient will be rather light much of the day. This will temper any warm up, with highs expected to be in the low to mid 30s.
Upper level analysis continues to show upper low over the southern Hudson Bay region, with strong northwest flow from southwest Canada through the Northern and Central Plains and into the eastern US.
A weak upper disturbance exiting eastward away from a northeast Pacific ridge yielded very shallow/light precipitation early Monday morning over NW CA. The previously mentioned ridge will amplify as the disturbance continues to move east away from the region, with intensifying subsidence and drying aloft spreading across NWRN CA during Monday afternoon and night.
A very weak ridge is over the state. The ridge is so weak that it is unable to deflect the mid and high level clouds to north of the area. There will be additional warming (including areas away form the csts/vlys) Wed as the ridge grows. The air mass will continue to warm and the threat of freezing temps for any coastal valley location is minimal. The EC and GFS agree that the ridge will grow on Thu and Fri and the offshore flow will increase. While the GFS and EC do not agree all that well for the weekend they both show various types of high pressure over the area.
This high will dominate today as it tracks east to the Carolinas by Tuesday morning. Normal highs run from the lower 50s northwest to the lower 60s southeast. The increase in cloud cover will hold temperatures in the lower 30s southwest.
920 AM EST Mon Dec 25 2017 Forecast on track for Mostly Sunny skies and cooler temps today as High pressure builds north of the region. High pressure builds towards the Carolinas tonight and expect surface flow to become onshore with clouds building towards the coast with a few sprinkles possible along the NE FL coast by morning otherwise isolated shower activity should remain over the coastal waters.
Upper level ridge will move over the area Wed with warm advection precip expected Wed night and Thu.
Arctic high pressure and quite cold temperatures will be the rule this week. Lake enhanced stratocumulus clouds embedded within the upper trough will pivot east across our area early this morning.
Temperatures in the lower 20s with the snow has resulted in very slick roads.
The KABI terminal should be near the northern edge of the low cloud field by 12Z. Temperatures will not be as cold tonight, with lows expected to range from the lower 30s across the far northern and northwestern parts of our area, to near 40 in our far southeastern counties. (Tuesday through Monday) Patchy freezing drizzle possible for the Big country on Tuesday night. After our brief warmup today, another cold front makes its way across the area on Tuesday, continuing the roller coaster of temperature swings.
632 AM EST Mon Dec 25 2017 Low pressure will move rapidly to the northeast today. The best gusts should be on the ridges after some mixing kicks in this morning. Temps will only get into the teens for maxes in the NW, and near freezing in the far SE on Tuesday. An upper level low will move through the Great Lakes and through New York.
Guidance suggests the low clouds and perhaps flurries from the lake could swing into Bismarck/Mandan this morning as the winds turn more northwesterly at the surface, but it's not clear how expansive the lake-induced clouds actually are upstream at this hour without visible satellite imagery to aid their detection. Since recent high temperature forecasts have trended a little on the low side, opted to slightly increase high temperatures to reflect the ADjLAV which seems to have a better handle on temperatures for today.