Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Low pressure meandering over the southeastern U. High pressure builds in today with warm temperatures. Seasonable highs are expected today with mid 70s to the lower 80s in the mountains, and readings near 90 in the Piedmont. There is a very small chance for showers today due to the proximity of the front, but this will battle with high pressure pushing in from the north, so have left any showers out of the forecast. Moisture will begin to increase along the Blue Ridge by Friday afternoon to spark a chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Large area of high pressure is centered over Ontario. with overnight lows cooling back into the low to mid 50s tonight.
High temperatures will be cooler today, ranging from the upper 80s to low 90s across the area.
529 AM CDT Thu Jul 14 2022 (Today and tonight) Calm conditions are expected to continue through Thursday, as the upper level ridge continues to position itself over the region.
337 AM PDT Thu Jul 14 2022 Strengthening high pressure to the east will bring a warming trend into the weekend with weekend high temperatures 4 to 8 degrees above average.
The arrival of an upper level trough by the end of the weekend may bring breezy winds and a few mountain showers. The upper level flow becomes increasingly more southwest this afternoon into the evening as a broad upper level trough associated with a low pressure system off the coast of northern British Columbia progresses toward the Pacific Northwest. Sustained winds from 10 to 20 mph and gusts up to 30 mph will be possible with RHs in the low to mid teens Friday afternoon and early evening.
An uptick in winds and waves is again expected today as the lake- breeze circulation develops/intensifies and high pressure remains situated just north of the area.
642 AM EDT Thu Jul 14 2022 High pressure will gradually build into the region through the first half of the weekend bring mainly dry and fair weather. Isolated showers across the region early this morning, as the main upper level trough axis remains just to the west of our region. Once any fog burns off this morning, mainly dry and fair weather is expected as high pressure starts to build into the region under the broad upper trough positioned across the region. Clear and calm conditions expected tonight, as the upper level disturbance moves eastward and high pressure continues to build in from the Great Lakes region.
No weather concerns during the day today as high pressure continues to influence the region. Southeasterly winds will increase through the day as the high begins to move east of the region, which will bring warmer and more humid air into the area. temperatures will range from the low to mid 80s across eastern MN/western WI, to near 90 across western MN.
The heat will be on today as the large scale ridge axis moves farther to the east. A weak front (slightly cooler front) is expected to clip the area and resulted in some weak cold air advection in the lowest column of the atmosphere.
Heat indices will even struggle to reach triple digits today thanks to the slightly cooler and drier air that moved in behind yesterday's cold front. We still have a stalled frontal boundary just to our south across middle Mississippi and Alabama that will slowly lift north as a warm front by the end of the week. Heat indices shouldn't be much of an issue (around or less than 100F) through the weekend due to the low moisture, but the heat certainly won't be pleasant.
Monsoon moisture will remain in place over the coming week with daily rounds of showers and thunderstorms, especially across the higher terrain. A strong high pressure system remained centered near the Four Corners during the morning hours. Over the next several days there will be little change in the position or strength of the high with only a slight eastward drift in response to a passing trough over the northwestern states. The strength of the high will continue to inhibit full scale monsoon activity across northern Arizona, especially the northeast corner of the state. As mentioned, high pressure is expected to remain in place with only subtle day-to-day variations in the exact center of the high.
Enjoy! High pressure still not overhead. High pressure finally gets overhead on Friday after many days of waiting. However, the intense summer heat will largely remain to our west beneath a strong upper level ridge over the SW United States.
1009 AM EDT Thu Jul 14 2022 High pressure will build into the area today. This high will move off to the east by the end of the week.
532 AM EDT Thu Jul 14 2022 High pressure over northern Wisconsin will bring light winds, mostly clear skies and temperatures a little below normal today.
650 AM EDT Thu Jul 14 2022 High pressure will build into the area today. This high will move off to the east by the end of the week.
1020 AM EDT Thu Jul 14 2022 A cold front will steadily dissipate across the piedmont through the end of the week.
The axis of the deep-layered Atlantic ridge over the FL peninsula will shift northward as a Tropical Upper Tropospheric Trough (TUTT) between Cuba and the southern Bahamas lifts slowly northward toward the FL Straits and SE FL through tonight. Slightly cooler temperatures aloft and an increase in moisture will support isolated strong to severe storms developing this afternoon into evening. Upper pattern this period features strong upper ridging over the western Atlantic and the central Rockies, with upper trough over the eastern U. Slightly cooler air aloft supporting somewhat steeper lapse rates, plus dry air aloft, could support locally strong downdraft winds from the more intense storm cores that develop.
310 AM MDT Thu Jul 14 2022 Thunderstorms can be expected across Southwest Montana today with temperatures a few degrees cooler than yesterday.
528 AM EDT Thu Jul 14 2022 High pressure over the region has brought the region a clear and calm night, with lows dipping into the 40s so far. High pressure will stick around today, support a mostly cloud free day with highs in the 70s, except mid- upper 60s by Lake Superior, and afternoon lake breezes. High pressure both at the surface and aloft will influence the pattern for the majority of the forecast period with Upper Michigan on the eastern periphery of the ridge.
Bands of moisture undulations are rotating cyclonically around the low. One such band pushed through the Lower Keys around sunrise, then began to light up like a Christmas tree once reaching just west of Key West. From synopiss, as high pressure builds across the Atlantic and into the Florida Peninsula, gentle to occasionally moderate east to southeast breezes are expected through Friday.
Coastal locations may miss out on the highest chances for rain with the primary focus for thunderstorms being near and west of Interstate 95. The highest coverage of TSRA is expected for interior terminals 20z-03z. Weak ridging will break down with increased southerly flow around 15 kts this afternoon and evening.
558 AM CDT Thu Jul 14 2022 (Today) Sharp gradient in low level moisture currently resides along the eastern periphery of the forecast area, and as sfc ridging relaxes today, this moisture will quickly return north and westward. Daytime temperatures continue to trend toward the warmer side of guidance and the combination of bias adjustments and expected moisture return yield heat advisory criteria across SE OK today.
Thunderstorms can be expected across Southwest Montana today with temperatures a few degrees cooler than yesterday.
Today, a strong broad upper ridge dominates the northern and central Plains with an upper trough over the eastern third of the CONUS. Friday, temperatures will be a degree or two warmer and heat indices will be a little hotter as well, up to 108 degrees in north central Kansas. While the upper ridge will continue to dominate the region, a disturbance will bring the next round of thunderstorms to portions of the central Plains.
424 AM MDT Thu Jul 14 2022 Upper-level ridging will dominate the forecast pattern today with slight height rises noted across the central and northern Rockies.
714 AM EDT Thu Jul 14 2022 High pressure over the region has brought the region a clear and calm night, with lows dipping into the 40s so far. High pressure will stick around today, support a mostly cloud free day with highs in the 70s, except mid- upper 60s by Lake Superior, and afternoon lake breezes. High pressure both at the surface and aloft will influence the pattern for the majority of the forecast period with Upper Michigan on the eastern periphery of the ridge.
530 AM MDT Thu Jul 14 2022 07z surface analysis had trough from eastern MT into northeast CO with a weak low over northwest NE. Combination of afternoon highs/Td/s in the low/mid 60s paint heat indices from 100-105F over south-central SD so will hoist Heat Advisory this afternoon/early evening. Focus will likely be across the higher terrain in the west, then moving across the CWA in the evening.
An upper level trough is currently across the far western Dakotas, with a few showers and thunderstorms seen on the regional radar.
Cloud cover should sink south of the Tennessee River by noon today or sooner, as high pressure builds into the area behind the front.
Strong high pressure over the desert southwest will continue to push temperatures 5 to 8 degrees above average across SE AZ. Temporary drying in the upstream easterly mid levels will tend to favor storm coverage associated with the deeper moisture from Tucson into the lower deserts for a couple of days. For now though, this ridge could end up pushing back to near record high territory in the next few days.
Otherwise, another hot and dry day is forecast with afternoon highs topping out in the lower 90s.
1022 AM EDT Thu Jul 14 2022 High pressure will gradually build into the region through the first half of the weekend bring mainly dry and fair weather. Showers will track southeast as an upper level trough axis remains just west of our region. Mainly dry and fair weather is expected as high pressure starts to build into the region under the broad upper trough positioned across the region. Clear and calm conditions expected tonight, as the upper level disturbance moves eastward and high pressure continues to build in from the Great Lakes region.
525 AM MDT Thu Jul 14 2022 12Z TAF CYCLE Upper high centered vcnty nrn NM/srn CO. Weak sfc lee trough. Brief mt obscurations associated with isold-sct showers and tstms developing over the wrn and central NM high terrain by 19Z, drifting slowly into the lower elevations thereafter.
(This evening through Friday) Showers and thunderstorms have developed across much of West Central Texas this afternoon, as an upper level disturbance rounds the eastern periphery of the ridge. Expect overnight lows in the low to mid 70s.
322 PM CDT Thu Jul 14 2022 A strong ridge remains anchored over the Four Corners this afternoon with a trough over the Northeast, extending SSW into the Lower MS Valley. North of the front, dewpoints will again mix out into the lower 60s while mid/upper 60s persist on the warm side. Temperatures will be a couple degrees warmer tomorrow, topping out in the mid 90s for most areas. Fortunately, the lower dewpoints will keep heat indices below 100F for the most part.
A strong ridge of high pressure centered near the Four Corners region will continue to result in a favorable flow pattern for daily chances of showers and thunderstorms. /Issued at 241 AM MST Thu Jul 14/ Strong high pressure over the desert southwest will continue to push temperatures 5 to 8 degrees above average across SE AZ. Temporary drying in the upstream easterly mid levels will tend to favor storm coverage associated with the deeper moisture from Tucson into the lower deserts for a couple of days. For now though, this ridge could end up pushing back to near record high territory in the next few days.
The upper level jet stream will remain well north of our area and the upper level ridge will dominate our overall weather for the next several days. Cold front will make its way into the northern Plains, but will remain way too far to the north to be consequential to us. The Heat Advisory may need to be expanded for tonight's forecast if it gets any warmer. The upper ridge with the axis over the Rockies decreases in strength just a bit over the weekend and takes on a bit of a positive tilt into the northern Plains.
An upper level ridge persists over the southwestern CONUS with another upper ridge over the western Atlantic, essentially keeping the local area within a weak flow pattern aloft. By Friday, the upper ridge over the southwestern CONUS begins to expand to the east somewhat, which brings slightly drier air into the region (especially the northwestern portion of the area). High temperatures on Friday will be slightly warmer with highs topping out in the upper 80s to low 90s area-wide. Lows each night are expected to range from the low 70s inland to the mid to upper 70s along the coast.
(This evening through Friday) Warm night expected tonight as upper ridge continues to dominate the weather across the southern Plains.
As a ridge builds in behind the front we will begin a trend toward hot and somewhat humid conditions.
With dry conditions in the lowest levels of the atmosphere, the continued threat will be gusty to potentially damaging outflow winds.
The area will continue to be on the eastern influences of the large central US upper ridge on Friday which will give us another warm day with manageable humidity levels.
131 PM EDT Thu Jul 14 2022 High pressure will build into the area today. This high will move off to the east by the end of the week.
Higher heights centered over the Rockies extending down through the high plains with weak northwest flow aloft for the CWA. Leeside troughing over eastern Colorado has deepened with daytime heating mixing south winds to the surface gusting up to 20-30 mph across much of the viewing area. After sunset, winds will diminish to 10-15 mph out of the south with radiational cooling dropping temperatures into the low to mid 70s overnight.
159 PM MDT Thu Jul 14 2022 19Z surface analysis shows low pressure centered over south central South Dakota breezy southerly winds with dewpoints in the 60s to lower 70s to the east of the low. Breezy northwesterly winds are located to the west of the low with dewpoints in the mid-50s to the mid-60s to the west. The low level moisture, combined with diurnal heating has increased the MUCAPE to 500-1000J/KG over northeastern Wyoming and 2000-3000 over western and central South Dakota. A weak disturbance in the upper flow is currently producing some thunderstorms near the higher terrain to the west of the forecast area. The upper ridge will remain in place on Friday, leading to another warm/hot day over the northern plains.
(This evening through Friday Night) With upper-level ridging now receded towards the Four Corners area, the Ark-La-Tex will sit on the eastern periphery in northerly flow through the next 36 hours. Until then, minimum temperatures tonight are expected in the mid- to-upper 70s with dew points remaining in the lower 70s with extra moisture in soils. Conditions will become drier with the trough axis from yesterday proceeding west into Texas, leaving isolated showers and thunderstorms possible mainly in our southernmost zones.
Energy associated with an inverted trough has resulted in some showers offshore and South of the area so far today. Tomorrow is looking cooler and heat indices are not expected to reach advisory conditions but will in the 105-109 range.
This convection is largely tied to an elevated warm front at 850mb attached to an upper low in Manitoba. Additional convection is possible along a warm front in Lakes Country overnight tonight, although a marginal risk for severe storms is most likely with this given surface inversion and instability near the warm front. Additionally, upper level flow is parallel to the initiating warm front boundary overnight tonight. Friday initially dry with an area of high pressure building southward through the area with weak CAA in place. Have nudged temps down a degree or two across the area with the more northeasterly flow behind the weak backdoor cold front pushing through.
Fog is expected to form in some areas of East TN again tonight, with TRI having the highest chance of the TAF sites.
348 PM EDT Thu Jul 14 2022 The upper level pattern this afternoon consists of an large upper level ridge over much of the western U. S with troughing over the far eastern U. This afternoon we had light winds and temperatures near seasonal averages though it was cooler near the Great Lakes where the lake breeze circulation was dominant.
Mid-level trough axis will remain west of the forecast area Friday night, and although PW will continue to be elevated (near 2"), it will start to trend down slowly.
This isn't very evident in the wind field as northeasterly flow is observed across the area, but there is a pressure trough and a moisture gradient in the vicinity of this boundary. Heat indices will even struggle to reach triple digits today thanks to the slightly cooler and drier air that moved in behind yesterday's cold front. We still have a stalled frontal boundary just to our south across middle Mississippi and Alabama that will slowly lift north as a warm front by the end of the week. Heat indices shouldn't be much of an issue (around or less than 100F) through the weekend due to the low moisture, but the heat certainly won't be pleasant.
(Tonight) A cold front situated across Central Alabama continues to slide south tonight. This will allow dewpoints to drop into the low to mid 60s overnight and temperatures to fall into the mid to upper 60s.
Highs Friday will be five to ten degrees cooler than normal due to cloud cover and precipitation.
A broad mid/upper level trough over the area today will shift east, and a large ridge over the Plains will build east.
The approach of an MCS from the northeast this morning, along with an inland propagating sea breeze boundary and offshore activity associated with a weak midlevel trough to our east, have produced fairly widespread thunderstorm coverage this afternoon across SE TX. Overnight lows will remain in the mid to upper 70s inland and the lower 80s along the coast. Rain chances return to the forecast on Friday , with the highest chances expected near the coast as a weak midlevel easterly wave moves across the area while deep Gulf moisture remains in place along the coast (PWs of around 2.
A warm front runs from the North Dakota low southeast across Minnesota and into southern Indiana. After midnight, strong forcing topping the upper ridge will initiate an organized thunderstorm complex across southern Minnesota.
The upper air pattern features a semipermanent ridge over the western CONUS now expanding into the Central Plains. The ridge continues to expand into Friday heating the area up more as heights rise and H85 temps increase to around 25-28C range.
A beautiful afternoon in full swing across central PA with sun and some clouds with high pressure sitting to our northwest. Added in patchy fog in the northwest with the high building overhead. High pressure finally gets overhead on Friday after many days of waiting. A largely static upper level pattern will remain across the CONUS and Canada with ridging anchored near the Four Corners and various rounds of energy moving east/southeast across the eastern U.
High pressure building in should present another prime fog setup tonight so have included 3SM late in the period at KTRI.
High pressure will dominate over the area. Today Through Friday Night This morning, persistent upper ridging is centered over the Four Corners area with steep northwest flow aloft over the south-central CONUS. The center of surface ridging remains offshore in the Atlantic, yielding broad easterly flow locally. This may be a result of gradually increasing subsidence as the upper ridge slowly expands east again. With the brunt of upper ridging still to our west, temps today will generally be close to what was observed yesterday with highs in the 90s, although southern sections will see lower 90s thanks to some increased cloud cover. Through the remainder of this week, rain moves away and temps begin to climb into the mid/upper 90s again as the upper ridge continues expanding east.
An upper level short wave trough may move through the northeast side of the ridge late Friday night and it may touch of some showers and thunderstorms in Kansas which could head this way late in the night.
Temperatures are currently in the mid 80s with dew points in the low to mid 60s. Tonight, cloud cover will clear out as surface ridging slinks in from the Great Lakes. Clearing will allow for a ridge/valley with valleys dropping into the low 60s and ridges closer to mid 60s. friday will be pleasant with highs topping out in the mid to upper 80s and partly cloudy skies as high pressure at the surface remains in place. Friday night will almost be a copy of the night previous with a ridge/valley split developing and fog mainly along the river valleys.
1228 PM EDT Thu Jul 14 2022 A cold front will steadily dissipate across the piedmont through the end of the week.
307 PM EDT Thu Jul 14 2022 The upper level pattern this afternoon consists of an large upper level ridge over much of the western U. S with troughing over the far eastern U. This afternoon we had light winds and tempratures near seasonal averages though it was cooler near the Great Lakes where the lake breeze circulation was dominant. High pressure both at the surface and aloft will influence the pattern for the majority of the forecast period with Upper Michigan on the eastern periphery of the ridge.
In response, the atmosphere is becoming cooler and drier in the mid-levels; two necessary pieces for strong to severe storms. The low is also improving the vertical ascent rates through steepening lapse rates (in response to cooling and drying air) and adding modest, but notable instability to support more widespread convection.
(This afternoon through Friday night) The upper level ridge dominating our weather pattern remains centered to the east of the Four Corners for today. The low-level thermal ridge will be nudged westward some for Friday, resulting in tomrrow's highs being a degree or two lower than today.
1210 PM CDT Thu Jul 14 2022 (Today and tonight) Calm conditions are expected to continue through Thursday, as the upper level ridge continues to position itself over the region.
148 PM EDT Thu Jul 14 2022 High pressure over northern Wisconsin will bring light winds, mostly clear skies and temperatures a little below normal today.
At 16z the 850 mb warm front was already north of the area and by late afternoon the models indicate the 925 mb front will be near the Buffalo Ridge. Will have the better chances near and east of the Buffalo Ridge. Friday should be a quiet day as the wave moves by and weak ridging builds in.
115 PM EDT Thu Jul 14 2022 High pressure passing to the north should provide quiet weather through Friday morning. Chances of showers and thunderstorms will steadily increase from Friday afternoon through the upcoming weekend as a cold front enters the Ohio River Valley. High pressure currently centered over the Great Lakes should move eastward during this evening and provide quiet weather through tonight. Moisture should begin to converge along the Blue Ridge during Friday as the flow becomes more easterly across the Piedmont. Scattered showers and thunderstorms may develop in northwest North Carolina first around midday, and more coverage of convection is possible along and east of the Blue Ridge as the afternoon progresses. Moisture will begin to increase along the Blue Ridge by Friday afternoon to spark a chance of showers and thunderstorms.
231 PM EDT Thu Jul 14 2022 High pressure will continue to provide quiet weather conditions into tonight and Friday morning.
Jet impulse impinging on the ridge on Friday looks to stay more intact than today's wave so expect convection to be more widespread.
Afternoon temperatures on Friday will be a few degrees warmer than today for most areas.