Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
132 PM EDT Mon Jul 19 2021 A mid and upper level trough extending from Southern Quebec Canada into Eastern PA will create a northwesterly flow of dry but much warmer air today and Tuesday. This trough is forecast to linger over the area for much of the week, bringing a much drier week and less humidity then previous weeks. Upper level troughing over Pa, combined with diurnal heating, should result in increasing cumulus by this afternoon, along with the chance of a shower or thunderstorm in spots, mainly over the central and northern counties. Mixing down model 850mb temps of 15-16C translates to expected highs ranging from the upper 70s over the northern mountains, to the mid to upper 80s across the Lower Susq Valley.
853 AM PDT Mon Jul 19 2021 Monsoon flow around high pressure over the Intermountain West this week will bring warm days, mild nights and scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms over the mountains each day.
1146 AM MDT Mon Jul 19 2021 A very hot & dry day is expected across all of southeast Wyo & the western Neb Panhandle today with the 596-598 dam 500 mb ridge axis directly overhead. This is a bit of a dirty ridge w/ some pockets of moisture overhead, so really cannot entirely rule out a couple of showers but the chances for anything measurable are quite low with very dry sub-cloud layers. Monsoonal flow is expected to become more established Tuesday with the ridge axis flattening & shifting eastward slightly. Scattered / numerous showers & storms will be likely, mainly for those areas along/west of the Laramie Range with ridging likely to remain in control just to the east.
1214 PM EDT Mon Jul 19 2021 The area will remain between Atlantic high pressure and an inland trough through the weekend. With the upper trough just to our west and deep moisture in place, Tuesday should again be quite active with numerous showers and tstms, especially in the afternoon and evening.
216 PM EDT Mon Jul 19 2021 A mid and upper level trough extending from Southern Quebec Canada into Eastern PA will create a northwesterly flow of dry but much warmer air today and Tuesday. This trough is forecast to linger over the area for much of the week, bringing a much drier week and less humidity then previous weeks.
1236 PM CDT Mon Jul 19 2021 A mid/upper ridge was situated across the Central Great Basin area with northerly mid/upper flow extending downstream across the Central and Northern Plains states. Normal high temperatures for late July are in the low to mid 90s while normal lows are in the upper 60s to around 70. The persistent mid/upper ridge over the Central Great Basin area is progged to build slightly eastward allowing increasing heights/thickness and supporting rising temperatures as we move through the week and into the weekend.
1218 PM CDT Mon Jul 19 2021 Fairly mundane forecast over the next several days with upper level ridging off to our west dominating the pattern. Temperatures at 850 mb rise by a degree or two each day and thus expect afternoon highs to be about 2-4 degrees warmer than yesterday and similarly for Tuesday.
1125 AM EDT Mon Jul 19 2021 A mid and upper level trough extending from Southern Quebec Canada into Eastern PA will create a northwesterly flow of dry but much warmer air today and Tuesday. This trough is forecast to linger over the area for much of the week, bringing a much drier week and less humidity then previous weeks. Upper level troughing over Pa, combined with diurnal heating, should result in increasing cumulus by this afternoon, along with the chance of a shower or thunderstorm in spots, mainly over the central and northern counties. Mixing down model 850mb temps of 15-16C translates to expected highs ranging from the upper 70s over the northern mountains, to the mid to upper 80s across the Lower Susq Valley.
239 PM EDT Mon Jul 19 2021 Dry weather is expected to continue through the short term period as a strong ridge remains locked in place across the Intermountain West with a series of weak troughs expected to pass through the Northeastern States over the next couple of days. Lows will drop into the low to mid 60s. A non-zero threat for precipitation is also expected late tomorrow night with the potential for a cluster of storms to ride the ridge during the overnight hours with initiation in the Dakotas.
(This evening through Tuesday) A weak cold front is currently moving through the Concho Valley and Heartland. An upper level low is forecast to be centered across the Mississippi Valley, with this feature nosing into East Texas, on Tuesday. Meanwhile the aforementioned cold front will be well south of the area, across South Texas. (Tuesday night through next Monday) While the upper-level ridge will remain the dominant feature out west, a portion of a positively tilted trough over the Northeast US will break off and drift towards the western Gulf Coast.
1230 PM CDT Mon Jul 19 2021 An upper-level trough, possibly aiding a few early morning showers in southeastern MO, will continue to progress slowly southward today over the Central Plains and Mid-Mississippi River Valley. Drier conditions are anticipated by Tuesday as large- scale subsidence continues with an upper-level ridge over the Rocky Mountains becoming increasingly positively tilted into the Midwest. This evolution will also force the low-level anticyclone that is maintaining easterly to northeasterly flow across the region further southward near the CWA by Tuesday. However, temps will be a couple of degrees warmer on Tuesday with slightly greater solar insolation forecast.
256 PM CDT Mon Jul 19 2021 Little change to the pattern across the CONUS this afternoon with the mid-level ridge remaining in place across the Intermountain West with a trough axis extending from the northeast US into southern Missouri and northern Arkansas. Dry conditions are expected for the majority of the forecast period with the western ridge building over the central Plains by mid-week.
227 PM CDT Mon Jul 19 2021 A sprawling warm high pressure system is centered over Iowa today, with light winds, scattered cumulus, and temperatures in the lower to mid 80s. I've noted the models showing the pop up showers, also have dewpoints in the lower to mid 70s, which is possible for July, but it's not what we're observing currently. Thus, I've gone dry through Tuesday, and stayed with a middle of the road temperature forecast, banking on mean guidance handling the high pressure quite well. The over all synoptic pattern of a western upper high and eastern trof will not change much in the coming days, but in it's persistence, this pattern will spread increasing heat eastward, through the Cornbelt.
Despite the high humidity, precipitable water is declining and 500 mb temperatures are gradually warming, leading to poor instability (CAPE near 500 J/kg and lifted index near -2). Strong subtropical anticyclone will remain just to our west, from northwest Colorado at 7 pm Monday to a center over southwest Colorado at 7 pm Tuesday. The good news is models show little if any warming Tuesday, with the core of the ridge still well removed to the west. A fairly quiet weather pattern through the rest of the week as an upper level ridge moves out of the Rockies into the central plains.
1103 AM CDT Mon Jul 19 2021 High pressure will bring dry and warm weather to central and southeast IL for the next several days. 2 am surface analysis indicated little change from 24 hours ago, as 1023 mb high pressure stretched from WI to northern IA. South of the ridge, persistent albeit light northeast low level flow prevailed locally. Aloft, the 500 mb trof axis that has affected the region the past few days is finally shifting south into southern IL. Northwest upper level flow will shuttle weak disturbances through the lower Great Lakes, keeping precip chances to our northeast. This will nudge dewpoints up into the lower 70s, and with highs around 90F Thu/Fri, peak afternoon heat indices in the mid 90s to around 100F are possible.
For the rest of the workweek, Four Corners high pressure that brought the slight warming trend and compressed marine layer will retreat eastward. An upper level low spinning off the PacNW coast will slowly move eastward as well. The upper low and associated upper trough will help bring a deeper marine layer and cooler temperatures to the Bay Area. KSFO Bridge Approach.
400 PM EDT Mon Jul 19 2021 High pressure extending into the region will be reinforced during the middle of the week keeping mainly dry conditions.
216 PM CDT Mon Jul 19 2021 Upper ridge to our west continues to amplify, with deep northerly flow effectively pushing the moisture axis south of the Red River. Wave will continue to dive south and west over the next few days with ridge expanding across the area.
JB Chattanooga Airport, TN 78 69 80 69 86 / 90 70 80 30 50 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 82 69 80 68 87 / 50 40 60 20 20 Oak Ridge, TN 82 68 80 67 87 / 40 30 50 20 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 82 65 81 64 87 / 30 30 30 20 10.
/issued 805 AM EDT Mon Jul 19 2021/ Mid level ridge over most of the Gulf of Mexico eases southward today as a trough drops into the Deep South. At the surface broad high pressure extends across the state. High pressure with a relaxed gradient stretches across the waters for the next few days.
1130 AM MDT Mon Jul 19 2021 A classic summertime high pressure system over the southern Rockies will continue to dominate the weather pattern through the short-term period.
1018 AM MDT Mon Jul 19 2021 Update: Hot upper ridge in place over eastern MT will result in several daily record highs falling by this afternoon.
Just west of the ridge is a CAPE pool that may allow a bit of development westward toward/along the Red River. The MN thunderstorms initiated on an east-west cold frontal boundary shifting south through southwest Ontario.
However, any precip will have to overcome the large dome of high pressure, so will limit PoPs to a slight chance just across our southeast corner of the CWA. Mid-week upper pattern is marked by a strong ridge over the Four Corners with a trof over Quebec, with NW flow across the Great Lakes in between.
(This afternoon through Tuesday night) An upper ridge is over the Rocky Mountains with West Texas and Southeast New Mexico on the backside of the ridge. The upper ridge will be centered over the Four Corners Region on Tuesday and will extend into the central and northern Plains.
108 PM CDT Mon Jul 19 2021 An area of high pressure remains centered over the region this morning. This high is expected to sink very slowly south through tonight while continuing to provide the area with mostly clear skies and seasonable temperatures. A weak front over southern Canada this morning will work south as the high retreats and may make into to the northern sections of Wisconsin by late tonight. A weak short wave trough topping the western Conus ridge may slide southeast across the Great Lakes, interact with the front and cause some widely scattered showers and storms to develop across mainly the eastern sections of the area Tuesday afternoon. There looks to be the potential for short waves to top the ridge and move across the Midwest just about every day.
Storms should fire first over the White Mountains and north of the San Fransisco Peaks before filling in along the high terrain by the afternoon. Hi-res guidance has thunderstorms initiating around 12 pm and 1 pm along the high terrain. High pressures is expected continue to remain in place over the Four Corners region through the forecast period, keeping monsoonal moisture in place over much of northern Arizona.
Boise was 80 degrees at 6 AM and 91 degrees at 7 AM, the highest temperature ever recorded at Boise (since 1931) at 7 AM by 4 degrees. Farther west and north it was cooler with lows in the 50s and 60s.
Further to the northwest, embedded in the ridge aloft another ridge rider is beginning to develop some storms over SW Sask. A continuation of weak ridge riders continues on Tuesday with more widely scattered storms possible, however with the lack of a clear boundary at the surface the chances for severe are lower than today. The lower humidities during this time will keep heat indices down, obviating the need for potential heat headlines.
1201 PM CDT Mon Jul 19 2021 (Today and tonight) A weak cold front will slowly move south across the region today.
153 PM EDT Mon Jul 19 2021 With a front stalled just south of the area, high pressure noses in from the west today and Tuesday.
1145 AM MDT Mon Jul 19 2021 Upper ridge axis extends over central MT-WY with clouds moving upward on west side, but not coming down the east side, leaving clear skies over the forecast area today, although some smoke is over the area. Lee trof deepening over eastern MT with increasing southeast winds over northeastern WY as pressure gradient tightens. Current surface map shows weak trof across eastern Wyoming. Upper level high remains anchored over the central Rockies through much of the week while the amplitude of north side ridging decreases for the last half of the week. With less amplitude in ridging, pattern will become a bit more active over the last half the week with daily thunderstorm chances.
A mid to upper level trough extending southwestward from the New England states/Appalachian Mountains to the southern Great Plains will slowly sag southward through the period, as an upper level low attempts to pinch over the vicinity of the Lower Mississippi Valley on Tuesday. Deep layer moisture will remain across our forecast area ahead of the trough axis and surface boundary, with precipitable water values ranging up to 2 to 2. Showers and storms that develop will be capable of producing torrential downpours within the high PWAT airmass and could easily drop to 2-4" of rainfall and perhaps very locally over 5" in a short period of time, which could result in localized flash flooding/urban flooding. Lows tonight remain seasonably warm in the lower 70s inland and in the mid to upper 70s along the immediate coast and beaches.
140 PM EDT Mon Jul 19 2021 High pressure will offer dry conditions through the middle of the week.
Upper level trough continues over the eastern states.
West to east oriented upper trough axis will be moving slowly southward today, before stalling across the mid state by evening.
The H500 ridge is currently positioned over the Rockies and Central/Northern Plains this afternoon, keeping the area under northerly flow today. A weak area of low pressure is located over the eastern US, which is attempting to retrograde into the Southern Plains over the next couple of days. If thunderstorms do form, they are expected to be isolated and short lived, as warmer and drier air in the mid levels begins to push into the area from the east. The trough and upper level disturbance continue to push south through Tuesday morning. The ridge aloft begins to become positively tilted and turns the flow aloft to a more northeasterly component tomorrow. The warmer and drier air will also stick around and push further west in the mid levels, which will likely prevent any precipitation from occurring on Tuesday afternoon and evening.
The Florida Keys remain south of a ridge axis extending from a subtropical ridge out over the central Atlantic.
Upper ridging will be the dominant feature today and Tuesday. South to southeast winds will increase on Tuesday ahead of low pressure along the Rockies. Models have not wavered in their depiction of a persistent high pressure ridge remaining overhead through the work week.
Overall though, subsidence behind the decayed MCS and the mid level short wave trough that helped spawn it should lead to quiet weather through the evening. The next upstream trough is over western Kansas, but it is over an area where deeper dry air is in place, and thus no storms have yet been able to initiate there.
Overnight low temps in the low to mid 60s although wouldn't be surprised to see a few upper 50s in some northern valleys. Afternoon high temps will be similar to today ranging from the low to mid 80s.
120 PM EDT Mon Jul 19 2021 Aviation - Fairly Quiet Pattern This Week - Stormy Weekend Possible - Fairly Quiet Pattern This Week Synoptic pattern shows Western CONUS upper high with downstream trough axis across the Northeast prevailing this week.
Partly cloudy skies after that during the overnight hours with low temps dropping to the lower 70s. The upper ridge present in proximity of the area over past days will become nudged to a position over the Bahamas to S FL early through midweek. Broad upr ridge wl exert some influence back Nwd across the peninsula into late week. For the rest of the waters, isolated showers are possible later tonight as the ridge sits over the local waters, keeping a general south flow through the night.
1204 PM CDT Mon Jul 19 2021 High pressure will bring dry and warm weather to central and southeast IL for the next several days. 2 am surface analysis indicated little change from 24 hours ago, as 1023 mb high pressure stretched from WI to northern IA. South of the ridge, persistent albeit light northeast low level flow prevailed locally. Aloft, the 500 mb trof axis that has affected the region the past few days is finally shifting south into southern IL. Northwest upper level flow will shuttle weak disturbances through the lower Great Lakes, keeping precip chances to our northeast. This will nudge dewpoints up into the lower 70s, and with highs around 90F Thu/Fri, peak afternoon heat indices in the mid 90s to around 100F are possible.
A weak cold front and residual outflow boundary will be the focus for showers and thunderstorms today. Lingering rain chances for the early morning and afternoon still exist for most of the area, while down to our southern counties, the higher chances for showers and storms with locally heavy rain are expected. The increased cloudiness and rain should shave a few degrees from the highs on Tuesday, with highs in the upper 80s and low 90s.
1050 AM MDT Mon Jul 19 2021 Upper ridge axis extends over central MT-WY with clouds moving upward on west side, but not coming down the east side, leaving clear skies over the forecast area today, although some smoke is over the area. Lee trof deepening over eastern MT with increasing southeast winds over northeastern WY as pressure gradient tightens. Current surface map shows weak trof across eastern Wyoming. Upper level high remains anchored over the central Rockies through much of the week while the amplitude of north side ridging decreases for the last half of the week. With less amplitude in ridging, pattern will become a bit more active over the last half the week with daily thunderstorm chances.
241 PM EDT Mon Jul 19 2021 High pressure remains in control through Tuesday.
Monsoon flow around high pressure over the Intermountain West this week will bring warm days, mild nights and scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms over the mountains each day. WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO -Forecast Highlights- * Isolated monsoonal showers, and possibly a tstorm, through Wed * Slight increase in mountain/desert shower-tstorm activity Thu-Fri * Drying trend begins this weekend and turning slightly cooler The overall weather pattern is one of monsoonal flow over the Desert Southwest. A ridge of high pressure has elongated southwest and into our region and this has lead to decreasing moisture and more subsidence.
Unsettled weather will return later Tuesday and Tuesday night with a cold frontal passage. Northwest flow aloft will increase Tuesday as an upper level trough approaches from the north. A cold front will be stretched from southern Quebec to northern Michigan Tuesday morning and will slowly track south, moving into North Central NY and Lake Ontario by afternoon. It will be warm Tuesday with temperatures reaching the mid to upper 80s and dewpoints in the low 60s. Daytime heating and increasing moisture with the approaching trough and front will promote the chance for showers and storms Tuesday afternoon. Low temperatures in the low to mid 60s expected.
BW Chattanooga Airport, TN 69 80 69 86 70 / 70 80 30 50 20 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 69 80 68 87 70 / 40 60 20 20 10 Oak Ridge, TN 68 80 67 87 68 / 30 50 20 10 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 65 81 64 87 65 / 30 30 20 10 10.
Temperatures will gradually inch back to near normal by the end of the week Toward the weekend the strong upper level high over the Mountain West slowly moves east, thus resulting in more normal July heat and humidity.
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a slow moving trough will be focused mainly south of the Middle Tn terminals this afternoon and evening.
131 PM CDT Mon Jul 19 2021 A slow-moving surface boundary is stretched across Middle Tennessee this afternoon with an upper trough following closely behind. Also, look for cooler temperatures the next couple of days as the post- frontal air mass sinks deeper into Middle Tennessee.
(Today and tonight) A weak cold front will slowly move south across the region today. (Tuesday night through next Monday) While the upper-level ridge will remain the dominant feature out west, a portion of a positively tilted trough over the Northeast US will break off and drift towards the western Gulf Coast.
The longwave flow regime across North America will undergo a couple of days of amplification, as the ridge over Rockies builds and downstream height falls surge into Ontario and Quebec. A narrow corridor of instability is expected to pool along the cold front as it releases south through the Lower Peninsula on Tuesday.
Temperatures are a few degrees warmer than yesterday as the thermal ridge across the Plains slowly edges toward the state. The ridge continues to slide southeast on Tuesday with flow becoming more south to southwest with time. As the thermal ridge continues to approach the state, temperatures continue to warm a few degrees more. The low level jet converges just northeast of the forecast area on Tuesday night supporting convection in Minnesota into far northeast Iowa.
The upper high remains centered over western Colorado with northerly flow aloft for the forecast area. A weak backdoor cold front will bring northeast to easterly surface winds with slightly cooler temperatures as highs will remain in the 80s. By tomorrow, the chance for storms and any sort of precipitation dwindles as the upper high begins to take on a positive tilt and the flow aloft becomes northeasterly.
The weak flow aloft is courtesy of a strong high pressure ridge which has set up across the central Rockies and is looking to remain in place throughout the work week. On the backside of the ridge, the HRRR smoke trajectories indicate the area will be socked in all day Tuesday with rather thick smoke aloft. Otherwise, expect mostly a repeat of Monday for Tuesday, with slightly warmer temperatures as surface flow remains southerly, the inversion aloft strengthens, and ample sunshine blankets the region.
The short term ensembles are all clustering with a fairly strong mid and upper level ridge remaining over the Rocky Mountains which will lean over into the Northern Plains.
An upper ridge builds onto the Plains the next several days, allowing all-out summertime temps to return. The heat turns up for western Nebraska as the 594dm ridge takes hold of the Plains.
Otherwise, upper level ridging will prevail over our region through Tuesday night with a decent short wave trough riding over the top of the ridge. Temperatures in the east did not quite make it to the highs today. On Tuesday, do expect it to be a little warmer across the cwa with the continued smoke aloft. With a largely stationary upper-level ridge in place across the region, predominantly dry conditions and heat will remain through the period with only minor variations on that theme.
Unsettled weather will return later Tuesday and Tuesday night with a cold frontal passage.
A weak cold front moves through the forecast area in the Tue-Wed timeframe with only slight chances for thunderstorms due to the strong capping.