Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Temperatures will hold just above freezing. Forecast remains on track as the upper low is moving across the southern shores of Lake Michigan. Rain associated with this low is expected to quickly traverse the area from west to east before ending tonight around 2-3am. Weak ridge briefly builds over the area on Sunday to provide a break from precip. The upper ridge over the area will slide east Sunday night as an upper low and associated surface warm front moves across the upper Midwest. Early Monday morning the upper low takes on a more neutral/positive tilt as it moves across Lower Michigan. Once again, there is potential for snow to mix with rain, generally north of HWY 30, any any amounts will be limited given overnight low temperatures above freezing.
The relatively cold airmass in place as this system encroaches will likely lead to a period of snow or rain/snow mix Monday morning before daytime heating (and warm air advection along/south of the assoicated low pressure center) leads to a change to all rain as temperatures climb into the 40s (to near 50 along/south of I-94).
A cold front will ease into the northern zones after 06Z Monday. (Today through Monday afternoon) WV imagery shows weak ridging moving into West Texas and Southeast New Mexico this morning.
327 AM CDT Sun Apr 3 2022 Issued at 326 CDT Sun Apr 3 2022 A benign start to the day as high pressure nears the area. A dry cold front will move through the area this morning, marked by a few mid level clouds moving southeast across north AL currently. The northerly flow will keep temperatures below normal for early April, and afternoon highs will peak in the low to mid 60s. With zonal flow over the southeast, will see a gradual increase in moisture and temperatures on Monday as afternoon highs reach the low to mid 70s.
The northern Plains system will drive a cold front south through western and central Kansas today.
Temps will hold in the upper 30s along the SD/ND border with thick cloud cover and then warmer to the north where some breaks of sun will be possible with temps climbing into the low to mid 40s. As the system pulls east precip will end this evening and winds will become light with a ridge axis of high pressure sliding over the area for the overnight and into Monday.
The dry air combined with northwest sustained winds of 8 to 14 mph with gusts in excess of 20 mph possible, especially ridges and mountains will produce Enhanced Fire Danger today. A dry air mass associated with a building ridge of high pressure into the Tennessee valley and southern Appalachian.
Discussion: Southerly winds and warmer temperatures are expected today with highs in the 70s and 80s across the area.
However, the responsible trough is continuing to pull away from the U.
312 AM EDT Sun Apr 3 2022 Seasonable and dry weather will continue into Monday with increasing clouds Monday night ahead of the next low pressure system.
Attention then turns toward the potent Pac NW upper trough, which will support a long duration of very windy conds in the region. Primary lead impulse associated with the advancing vort max will support a cold front into the region Monday night, along with some rain and snow over the western third.
222 AM CDT Sun Apr 3 2022 Warmer conditions are in store for today, with highs reaching the upper 50s to lower 60s. Early morning surface map showed an elongated high pressure ridge stretched from central Canada south through the Mississippi Valley. Clear skies and light winds in the vicinity of the ridge allowed for cool 2 am readings in the low/mid 30s. Enough early/mid day sun should be sufficient to get highs several degrees warmer than yesterday, in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Southeast winds ahead of the low gusting near 20 mph at times and thick cloud cover will keep overnight lows milder in the low to mid 40s.
335 AM EDT Sun Apr 3 2022 High pressure will cross the region today. Low pressure will track south of the area tonight.
337 AM CDT Sun Apr 3 2022 An axis of high pressure was situated across the Mid to Upper Mississippi Valley, leading to quiet but cool conditions. We'll start the day off with clear skies as high pressure slowly edges into the Great Lakes.
Today Through Monday High pressure over the Tennessee Valley this morning will head to the east today/tonight. The high will keep it dry and mild today, with winds turning to the southeast. As the high moves farther away tonight, a cold front will be allowed to settle into northern Arkansas from the Plains.
Slight upper ridging will build over the area Sunday and into early Monday morning, which will maintain the clear skies and rain-free conditions. At the surface, a high pressure ridge will move east across the region Sunday into early Monday, but will be east of the area by late Monday with return flow off the Gulf redeveloping. Even a little warmer on Monday, with highs mainly in the lower 80s over all interior areas, upper 70s along the coast.
1045 PM CDT Sat Apr 2 2022 Upper level ridging currently moving in is keeping skies mainly clear via subsidence aloft, making for a pleasantly sunny afternoon. Any chance for fire concerns will get squashed as a cold front sweeps through the region from northwest to southeast, cooling temperatures and raising relative humidities. Have used NBM for winds and a blend of NBM and CONshort for wind gusts as cold air advection on the backside of the low will create gusty northwesterly winds.
Some lingering light drizzle is possible for a few hours after the main area of precip departs, with perhaps even some patchy freezing drizzle where sfc temps manage to dip slightly below freezing. The isentropic component impacts the area late Sunday night, then the upper low/pivot point comes across on Monday. Timing of the event favors cooler sfc temps supportive of mostly snow as p-type, with some potential for a 2-4" type of snowfall.
This trough will translate across the northern Plains today and push a cold front through the region tonight. Cooler air behind the front will result in lows dropping into the 40s by Monday morning.
Temperatures are mainly in the low to mid 60s under sunny skies and light to moderate westerly winds. High pressure will remain in place over the Mid-South overnight into early Monday. A low pressure system will move into the the Great Lakes Region Sunday night and drag a cold front will move into Mid-South Monday morning.
415 AM EDT Sun Apr 3 2022 A rather robust squall line moved across the Lower Keys after midnight, bringing heavy rain and strong winds. Temperatures have slightly rebounded to the lower to mid 70s across the island chain with dew points in the upper 60s. The Florida Keys continue to sit in a rather benign pressure field with ridging extending across the region. Afterwards, high pressure will build across the southeastern United States behind the stationary front, resulting in a period of freshening and lulling east to southeast breezes.
The parade of low pressure systems will keep moving across the Great Lakes this week. Today will be dry across southwest Lower as a brief period of ridging move overhead in advance of the next low. Forecast soundings show almost all of the profile below freezing. Given surface temperatures around to slight above freezing, travel issues should be kept to a minimum. It's likely that the precipitation will mix with and change to rain Monday as the low moves through and warmer air becomes entrained into the system.
Periodic precipitation chances are on the menu through the rest of the week due to a series of low pressure systems. An impressive early April trough will quickly rotate toward eastern PA this morning. Most of the precipitation will end this morning with the loss of upper level support, however scattered rain/snow showers will remain a risk into the afternoon hours due to the cold air advection, mainly over the highest elevations and the I-80 corridor. Dry conditions tonight will be short-lived as another fast- moving trough clips the northern portion of the CWA on Monday. Dry weather is expected by Monday night with brief ridging, and seasonable temperature.
An upper trough will move across the Dakotas into MN and northern IA. This will bring a fast moving cold front across western Nebraska this morning, with northwest winds quickly increasing to 20 to 30 mph with gust to 45 mph. Behind the cold front, very dry air across WY and northern CO will move across much of western NE.
Periodic precipitation chances are on the menu through the rest of the week due to a series of low pressure systems. The impressive trough will quickly rotate toward eastern PA this morning. Most of the precipitation will end this morning with the loss of upper level support, however scattered rain/snow showers will remain a risk into the afternoon hours due to the cold air advection, mainly over the highest elevations and the I-80 corridor. Dry conditions tonight will be short-lived as another fast- moving trough clips the northern portion of the CWA on Monday. Dry weather is expected by Monday night with brief ridging, and seasonable temperature.
A compact upper trough will dive southeast into the Great Lakes by 12Z Monday. There is some potential for the showers to linger through the day in the south, but the upper forcing will be well northeast by then, and the low-level flow will be veered and much weaker.
Surface ridging will build into the area for tonight with winds becoming light/calm.
Influx of warmer and higher near-surface moisture may result in areas of fog mainly after 09Z Sunday. This high pressure moves to the northeast late Sunday allowing for very moist air to move back into the area late Sunday night with PWATs climbing from 0. Overnight temperatures tonight will be in the low to mid 50s north of Huntsville, in the upper 50s to near 60 between Huntsville and I-10, and then in the low 60s in the Houston Metro and along the coast. The surge of moisture Sunday night will keep temperatures about five degrees warmer than tonight's expected lows.
202 AM EDT Sun Apr 3 2022 Low pressure and an associated cold front will move quickly east through the region tonight. High pressure will briefly build into the area Sunday before a series of weather systems brings unsettled conditions for much of the week. Gusty west winds immediately after the cold frontal passage will gradually decrease. Highs will range from the lower 50s north to the mid/upper 50s south. After midnight, there will be an increasing chance for rain, especially across west central Ohio, as lift increases and the low levels become more saturated. Lows will range from the mid 30s east to the lower 40s west.
This will probably be the best chance for any liquid freezing type pcpn given forecast warmth aloft. However, by this afternoon most of the pcpn should be rain/snow as deformation zone moves across the forecast area and temps aloft cool considerably on backside of the upper trof/low. For now it appears that some accumulation of snow is possible, especially along the ND/SD border area, and also over the higher elevations of the Sisseton Hills. Another factor affecting snowfall will be sfc temps which are generally above freezing. Over that region, there looks to be a concentration of strong winds from sfc-H850 on the backside of the low.
Temperatures should be in the low 40s initially therefore expecting mostly rain. As the system moves eastward, diurnal temperatures will switch most precipitation over to snow as temperatures dip below freezing. Where temperatures will remain above freezing will likely see a rain/snow mix. Precipitation type will largely be decided by surface/Tw temperatures as it appears that there is not much of a warm nose to cause any type of freezing drizzle or sleet. As temperatures diurnally fluctuate will likely cause rain to switch over to snow where temperatures dip below freezing. After the system moves out, high pressure will build in leading to a beautiful weekend with above average temperatures.
An area of low pressure will move across southern Minnesota and southern Wisconsin Sunday afternoon through Monday morning with rain and snow showers likely south of MN Highway 210 in Minnesota and over most of northwest Wisconsin.
A sharp upper level trough, coupled upper level jets and WAA/isentropic lift will generate a quarter to half inch of precipitation across the southwest half of the forecast area tonight into Monday morning, with lesser amounts farther northeast. If temperatures end up a couple degrees cooler, an advisory will likely be needed south of Hwy 29. Lows tonight should be in the upper 20s north to the lower to middle 30s south.
Surface ridging from a high centered over the Purchase Region of western Kentucky is resulting in dry and mostly sunny conditions with mainly light winds today.
High pressure will remain in control as it drifts ENE. Low pressure will track south of the Great Lakes and a cold front will push into northern parts of the Mid- South.
Granted that is pretty hard to do across the high plateau region of our CWA. HiRes models have continued with the trend from last nights model runs of tightening this circulation through sunrise over the High Plateaus and Flat Tops. Additional ascent arrives this evening and overnight as the subtrop jet lifts across the Desert SW and another trough swings across the region. Temperatures will be around 10 degrees cooler in the northern CWA behind the front and only a few degrees cooler in south due to increased cloud cover. Similar to slightly warmer temperatures expected on Monday.
We dry out a bit overnight as high pressure builds into the north, but then the stalled front over south FL starts to lift back to the north again Monday/Monday night bringing the chance for showers and storms again across the area as the front then stalls just to the north of the area and a series of upper disturbances again keep rain chances in place through much of the rest of the week.
315 AM PDT Sun Apr 3 2022 Weak low pressure will increase breezes this afternoon, with stronger winds expected Monday as low pressure moves into the Pacific Northwest.
614 AM EDT Sun Apr 3 2022 High pressure will cross the region today. Low pressure will track south of the area tonight.
Surface ridging will build into the area for tonight with winds becoming light/calm. The dry air combined with northwest sustained winds of 8 to 14 mph with gusts in excess of 20 mph possible, especially ridges and mountains will produce Enhanced Fire Danger today. A dry air mass associated with a building ridge of high pressure into the Tennessee valley and southern Appalachian.
Looking at the current water vapor imagery there is weak high pressure ridging over our area with an upper level low and troughing off the Pacific coast.
1059 AM EDT Sun Apr 3 2022 Heavy rains and thunder moved into the Lower Keys after midnight, then pushed to the southeast into the Straits of Florida. Temperatures are in the lower to mid 80s with dewpoints in the mid 70s.
A benign start to the day as high pressure nears the area. A dry cold front will move through the area this morning, marked by a few mid level clouds moving southeast across north AL currently. The northerly flow will keep temperatures below normal for early April, and afternoon highs will peak in the low to mid 60s. With zonal flow over the southeast, will see a gradual increase in moisture and temperatures on Monday as afternoon highs reach the low to mid 70s.
Periodic precipitation chances are on the menu through the rest of the week due to a series of low pressure systems. As a trough continues to pass through the area, showers and snow showers will move through the area through midday. Most of the precipitation will end by midday with the loss of upper level support, however scattered rain/snow showers will remain a risk into the afternoon hours due to the cold air advection, mainly over the highest elevations and the I-80 corridor. A brief break in cloud cover will allow temperatures to drop into the lower 30s. A fast- moving trough will clip the northern portion of the CWA on Monday. Dry weather is expected by Monday night with brief ridging, and seasonable temperature.
433 AM MDT Sun Apr 3 2022 A low pressure system located along the Montana/North Dakota border will continue east through the morning. Precipitation on the backside of this low is a mix of rain and snow. A flat upper ridge settles in across the northern Rockies/plains from this afternoon through Monday. A larger upper trough/low moves into the region Monday Night with a cold front.
550 AM CDT Sun Apr 3 2022 Warmer conditions are in store for today, with highs reaching the upper 50s to lower 60s. Early morning surface map showed an elongated high pressure ridge stretched from central Canada south through the Mississippi Valley. Clear skies and light winds in the vicinity of the ridge allowed for cool 2 am readings in the low/mid 30s. Enough early/mid day sun should be sufficient to get highs several degrees warmer than yesterday, in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Southeast winds ahead of the low gusting near 20 mph at times and thick cloud cover will keep overnight lows milder in the low to mid 40s.
326 AM MDT Sun Apr 3 2022 Upper disturbance moving across the northern plains on Sunday will push a surface cold front through the forecast area Sunday morning. Strongest winds will occur Sunday morning along/behind the cold front. In addition, increasing cloud cover may also contribute to limited afternoon mixing and cooler temperatures. Upper trough continues to move across the central CONUS on Monday, but precipitation chances will remain well south of the area. Surface winds will turn southwest and become breezy by Monday afternoon as lee trough strengthens in northeast Colorado. Temperatures will top out in the low to mid 60s for highs and lows Monday night in the 30s.
An axis of high pressure was situated across the Mid to Upper Mississippi Valley, leading to quiet but cool conditions. We'll start the day off with clear skies as high pressure slowly edges into the Great Lakes.
A trailing cold front stretched from southeast South Dakota SSW into portions of central KS early this afternoon. A clipper system will drive a cold front southward across the area on late on Tue bringing another round of showers and perhaps a few storms to the area during the evening hours but once again the quality of the low level moisture will be sub par and the threat for organized strong or severe storms is expected to remain low. The mid/upper trough over the Upper Mississippi Valley will deepen on Wed with strong northwest winds impacting the Central Plains states driving fire weather concerns across much of the area with wind headlines likely across much of the region.
248 PM MDT Sun Apr 3 2022 The cold front that moved through earlier today and brought some measurable snow and rain to the region has started to wash out as upper level support moves to eastern Colorado. Expect rain for the valleys though Pagosa Springs might see a dusting as temperatures hover around freezing there. While the closed low will stay well to our north, favorable flow and the ample moisture that has advected in will allow some orographic snows for the Park and Gore Ranges to form late Monday night.
ACROSS NORTHERN ROCKIES Weak high pressure over the Northern Rockies today will break down tonight.
Satellite imagery depicts high clouds spreading across the area ahead of an upper trough and strong Pacific jet. Precipitation will spread across primarily the higher terrain starting early Monday morning, although adjacent lower elevations in Idaho will see a period of rainfall. 1 data indicate gusts approaching 45 mph through the Snake Plain along a cold front late Monday afternoon and Monday evening.
A Cu field has begun to develop over east Texas, impacting LFK, TYR and spreading to GGG, with cigs remaining in the low VFR range.
Periodic precipitation chances are on the menu through the rest of the week due to a series of low pressure systems. Most of the precip has exited the forecast area but some scattered rain/snow showers will remain a risk into the afternoon/evening hours due to the cold air advection, mainly over the highest elevations and the I-80 corridor. A brief break in cloud cover will allow temperatures to drop into the lower 30s. A fast- moving trough will clip the northern portion of the CWA on Monday. Dry weather is expected by Monday night with brief ridging, and seasonable temperature.
This will be followed quickly by the next low pressure system approaching out of the southern Plains. Yet another cold frontal system is progged to enter the region from the west late in the night Tue night. to a large scale synoptic trough, followed by a ridge at the end of the forecast period.
257 PM CDT Sun Apr 3 2022 High pressure will slide eastward to our north overnight, keeping the area ensconced in a modified continental air mass. On Monday, a southern stream trough will advance quickly eastward across the southern CONUS in advance of a strong upr jet and associated trough beginning to dig into the NW CONUS.
Wrap around precipitation, currently in Aberdeen's forecast area, will push into the Highway 14 corridor.
/DL/ Surface ridging from a high centered over the Purchase Region of western Kentucky is resulting in dry and mostly sunny conditions with mainly light winds today.
Behind a cold front, expect gusty north winds for the remainder of the afternoon seeing up to 30-40 mph. Afternoon high temperatures will be slightly cooler from yesterday but still seasonable for this time of year due to the aforementioned front seeing low 60s to the northwest and low 70s further southeast. Increasing upper level clouds depicted on IR will continue to pump in across the Rockies and high plains for southwest Kansas continuing into Monday before improving towards sunset Monday evening as the upper and mid level trough exits to the east. With mainly cloudy skies and upslope winds, expect even cooler temperatures in the afternoon hovering around the 60 degree mark.
Warmer with slightly above normal temperatures but with increasing clouds through the day north of I-40. However, northeast TN and southwest VA will be in the low to mid 30s for a few hours before sunrise. An associated southwest/northeast oriented cold front will stretch from southern Missouri up through the northern Ohio River Valley.
A positively-tilted trough will approach the area late tonight into Monday morning. Onshore flow in the lower levels will allow PWAT values to increase to around 1.
1222 PM CDT Sun Apr 3 2022 (The rest of today ) Mid to high level clouds will continue to increase across northeast Oklahoma into northwest Arkansas today in advance of a cold front that will move into the area this evening.
However, tornado potential will remain low given the high cloud bases, lack of low level lifting, and the best low level shear will be present later on tonight after this activity occurs.
Dew point values could fall into the upper 20s in some locations, especially in the NE, and along with temps in the low/mid 60s this afternoon will yield RH values in the 25-30 pct range. This would result in some concerns for fire weather conditions were it not for the low KBDI values currently prevalent across the area. With zonal flow over the southeast, will see a gradual increase in moisture and temperatures on Monday as afternoon highs reach the low to mid 70s.
Lows will be mainly in the lower 30s. Surface winds will turn southwesterly by the afternoon with breezy to wind conditions possible, especially in northeast Colorado, as lee trough deepens just to the west and gradient is maximized.
Otherwise, an associated cold front will slide southeast across the region tonight. Then on Monday despite a break in the precipitation, lingering cloud cover and west to northwest winds will keep temperatures slightly cooler than today's highs, in the mid 50s to mid 60s.
The deserts and the higher mountains will be mostly sunny. Skies on Monday will turn mostly sunny as a building ridge suppresses the marine layer.