Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
A weak 700 mb northwest flow is expected, with a weak 700 mb trough axis moving across southern Wisconsin. Will use the high resolution HRRR experimental winds, that has any lake breeze confined to areas right along the lake north of Milwaukee.
Stratus is spilling into the umpqua basin this morning behind a weak trough that moved through the area earlier. this weak marine push will bring a day of similar to slightly cooler temperatures to the region today.
140 AM EDT MON JUL 25 2016 A weak and slow moving cold front will pass through the area later today, bringing the risk for more showers and storms. A weak cold front will try and cross the region late today, before losing most of its structure as the evening approaches.
High pressure aloft will continue to provide dry and stable conditions with slightly warmer temperatures Monday. Mainly clear and dry conditions with relatively light winds will continue through Monday morning as an upper level ridge of high pressure drifts east across the region. This will allow for some destabilization Monday afternoon and likely lead to the development of more widespread cumulus as well as a few isolated showers and thunderstorms, primarily initiating over the higher terrain of central and SW MT. In addition, the deepening low pressure across the Great Basin will maintain low level winds from north, bringing in some slightly higher dewpoints/moisture for somewhat better coverage of afternoon showers and thunderstorms late Tuesday.
640 AM EDT MON JUL 25 2016 A weakening cold front will move across the region today.
High pressure centered near the 4-corners area of the country this morning will slowly translate west to re-center over the Great Basin by Tuesday afternoon. In the meantime, a low pressure area over western Oregon partly responsible for keeping temperatures down a bit in the north will be slowly moving east to reposition north of the Silver State by late Tuesday. By then, there will be a strong tropical moisture tap beginning as the high moves over Nevada.
107 AM EDT MON JUL 25 2016 Atlantic high pressure will prevail through much of the week while a weak trough persists inland. Lows will be in the lower and middle 70s far inland, upper 70s or near 80 at the coast. A deep layer ridge will continue over the region. Deep layer moisture will be the lowest/most marginal for Monday, which will translate to the lowest pops/coverage for afternoon convection.
More widespread activity is forecast across the southern half of the peninsula with a low level trough possibly passing westward through the Florida Straits later in the day.
241 PM EDT THU SEP 8 2016 The strong ridge aloft over the MS/OH valleys will keep us much warmer than normal through the end of the week. Muggy air will stick around until a strong cold front passes this weekend.
There is a patch of clouds over W TN/MS that have developed along a piece of upper level energy caught under the high pressure and are moving E/SE towards the area. Upper-lvl ridge will shift ewd across the region tomorrow with sct high-based cu/ac anticipated once again, as cloud bases will remain in the 6-10 kft range.
507 PM MDT THU SEP 8 2016 Current surface map shows trof moving through western South Dakota. Better chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms overnight into Friday as secondary upper trof swings through the forecast area. Cooler and breezy conditions for Friday. Dry and warmer conditions will develop over the weekend as a weak ridge crosses the area.
Slightly cooler temperatures are in store for Friday and much lighter winds are forecast in response to building high pressure.
318 PM CDT THU SEP 8 2016 A weak upper level trough was situated across the western plains today; and ample low to mid level tropical moisture was in place. South of this front from Pratt and Ashland southward, temperatures were in the lower 90s with dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s, along with moderate surface based CAPE values.
Temps expected to reach into the low to mid 90s areawide today, with heat index values over 100 degrees.
Cold front along a Fond Du Lac, Madison to Darlington line will be clearing the far southeast corner of the forecast area by 7 pm. Clouds have been clearing in drying/subsidence behind the short wave trough. Quiet for most of the night, then 700 mb flow begins to back late tonight in response to a positive tilt 500 mb short wave trough as it moves into the western dakotas by 12Z Friday. Positive-tilt 500 mb trough digs into the Northern Plains taking on a neutral orientation by Friday evening. Layer Q-vector convergence forecasts indicate forcing over the region will be more closely linked to the dynamics with the short wave than the thermodynamics as the low-level jet, and better moisture transport, heals over and focuses more towards Illinois and northern Indiana.
Temperatures will generally be near to slightly cooler than normal. Parts of the North Bay and around the Monterey Bay are running nearly 20 degrees cooler! Look for the clouds to return tonight to all all coastal spots plus adjacent valleys.
335 PM CDT THU SEP 8 2016 (Tonight and Friday) The extension of the subtropical ridge across the area will result in mainly dry conditions and above normal temperatures through Friday. Otherwise, skies will be clear to partly cloudy overnight with lows in the lower and middle 70s. Temperatures on Friday will be several degrees above normal, with highs in the lower and middle 90s.
733 PM EDT THU SEP 8 2016 The strong ridge aloft over the MS/OH valleys will keep us much warmer than normal through the end of the week. Muggy air will stick around until a strong cold front passes this weekend.
/issued 253 PM CDT THU SEP 8 2016/ A broad upper trough has developed across the northern half of the CONUS, while high pressure remains across the Gulf Coast, with a SW-NE oriented shear axis still in place over the area.
Upper air analysis this morning showed the subtropical ridge over the southern part of the country. At the surface, high pressure was centered over the Gulf and winds were from the south to southeast. Elsewhere, the subtropical ridge will generally hold and keep the weather dry.
Weak pre frontal trough is in place from central IN sw through srn MO. In the upper levels, w-e ridging extends from eastern TX through the deep south.
111 PM EDT THU SEP 8 2016 Scattered showers across the area will gradually diminish in coverage from northwest to southeast this afternoon and this evening as a weak cold front moves through the area. High pressure will build into the area tonight, ending the rain, but allowing patchy fog to form.
On Friday, a cold front will gradually move south and develop convection over northern AR.
648 PM CDT THU SEP 8 2016 High pressure ridge axis was over the forecast area this afternoon. Meanwhile, some additional clouds, mainly cirrus, was beginning to move along the Canadian border in the warm air advection ahead of an upper trof approaching the Northern Plains. The upper trof remains over North Dakota. Used a blended approach to pops, leaning closer to the high resolution HIRESARW/HIRESNMM models for timing and coverage.
1026 AM PDT THU SEP 8 2016 Onshore flow with a deeper marine layer will bring cooler conditions to the forecast area through Friday.
Low and mid level moisture too limited for any precipitation along the cold front. Much cooler and breezy in the wake of the cold front with decent cold air advection through the day.
Locally freezing temperatures will be possible. A stronger cold front is forecast to arrive this weekend with breezy, dry northerly winds, as well as unsettled and cooler weather. Locally breezy conditions are expected today in the wake of a cold front passage last evening. A weak system will drop into the Idaho Panhandle this afternoon generating scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over the high terrain of north Idaho.
An upper level trough will then dive south into the Plains Friday night and will send a cold front to the southeast.
731 PM EDT THU SEP 8 2016 The strong ridge aloft over the MS/OH valleys will keep us much warmer than normal through the end of the week. Muggy air will stick around until a strong cold front passes this weekend.
An inverted mid/upper-level trough currently over the west-central Gulf of Mexico will continue propagating westward overnight, approaching the coastal waters by early Friday morning, then pretty much stalling out along the coast by later in the day. Not sure how far inland any enhanced moisture associated with the aforementioned trough will make it during Friday daytime. For Friday night, some pooling of moisture along the coast is noted in model output in association with the upper trough.
Light to moderate winds are anticipated with a few clouds courtesy of mid- level high pressure in control over Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley. An inverted mid/upper-level trough currently over the west-central Gulf of Mexico will continue propagating westward overnight, approaching the coastal waters by early Friday morning, then pretty much stalling out along the coast by later in the day. Not sure how far inland any enhanced moisture associated with the aforementioned trough will make it during Friday daytime. For Friday night, some pooling of moisture along the coast is noted in model output in association with the upper trough.
404 PM CDT THU SEP 8 2016 Ridge of high pressure moving through the area this afternoon, which has made for a nice day so far. Showers will end Friday night across eastern MN and western WI as a low pressure system and cold front push east of the area. This will lead to high pressure and pleasant weather for the weekend.
A weak sfc trof will move across KGUY and KDHT near or just after sunrise Friday with winds becoming north at both sites. Surface winds expected to be lighter in the northern parts of forecast area today as pre- frontal trof moves closer. /Issued 431 AM CDT THU SEP 8 2016/ A short wave trough will approach the Panhandles from the central and southern Rockies today and tonight as abundant low level moisture remains in place across the forecast area. Increasing chances for convection mainly Friday night with drier and much cooler conditions expected this weekend.
Tranquil evening weather wise with stacked high pressure directly over the forecast area.
On Friday, a cold front will move into the northern Panhandles late in the day, and bring gusty northerly winds along with it.
243 PM CDT THU SEP 8 2016 Upper ridge continues to hold fast lover the srn/sern CONUS and is centered almost directly ovhd.
547 PM MDT THU SEP 8 2016 Low stratus and fog this morning is holding temperatures down thus far; however slow and gradual clearing should allow enough heating to bring the highs into the lower to middle 80s. Moisture content is very high in the lower levels as tropical moisture streams up along a theta-e boundary draped from southwest to northeast across the CWA. A cold front approaches the region tonight and will push through the CWA on Friday. High temperatures will range from the lower 70s in the northwestern portions of the CWA and the lower 80s in the south and southeastern portions of the CWA. To start off, Friday night will see the back end of an eastward exiting trough.
205 PM CDT THU SEP 8 2016 I spy a Cold Front, at the surface, extending from eastern IA into northern MO. The High aloft is still really strong and holding thru the day Friday, but begins to show weakening here Friday night as a sharper Trof aloft presses in from the northwest.
313 PM CDT THU SEP 8 2016 Upper level southwest flow will be in place tonight through Friday morning ahead of an approaching trough.
436 PM EDT THU SEP 8 2016 Aviation section updated A cold front over eastern Wisconsin and northwest Illinois will move to central Indiana late tonight and become stationary.
47 A 12Z upper air analysis showed a 500 mb high pressure ridge over the northern counties of the forecast area. The subsidence area west of the easterly wave and under the upper high pressure ridge was helping to keep slightly drier conditions over the remainder of the forecast area.
149 PM MDT THU SEP 8 2016 Low stratus and fog this morning is holding temperatures down thus far; however slow and gradual clearing should allow enough heating to bring the highs into the lower to middle 80s. Moisture content is very high in the lower levels as tropical moisture streams up along a theta-e boundary draped from southwest to northeast across the CWA. A cold front approaches the region tonight and will push through the CWA on Friday. High temperatures will range from the lower 70s in the northwestern portions of the CWA and the lower 80s in the south and southeastern portions of the CWA. To start off, Friday night will see the back end of an eastward exiting trough.
931 PM EDT THU SEP 8 2016 Update High pressure will build in and bring fair weather tonight through Friday afternoon.
For 00z Aviation discussion below Ridge of high pressure moving through the area this afternoon, which has made for a nice day so far. Showers will end Friday night across eastern MN and western WI as a low pressure system and cold front push east of the area. This will lead to high pressure and pleasant weather for the weekend.
300 PM EDT THU SEP 8 2016 Scattered showers across the area will gradually diminish in coverage from northwest to southeast this afternoon and this evening as a weak cold front moves through the area. High pressure will build into the area tonight, ending the rain, but allowing patchy fog to form.
756 PM EDT THU SEP 8 2016 Aviation High pressure will build in and bring fair weather tonight through Friday afternoon.
/issued 900 AM EDT THU SEP 8 2016/ A sharp moisture gradient continues over the Florida peninsula this morning (via 12Z Raob data and Water Vapor imagery) with a very dry subsident airmass noted along and to the north of the I-4 corridor where Pw's of less than an inch are bing observed with increasing moisture as one moves south with the highest moisture noted over south Florida. High pressure surface and aloft will remain in control today with a northeast to easterly wind flow continuing over the forecast area.
This will generally remain the case over the next couple of days before a trough/weak front sags into the southeast and weakens. Another in a series of waves pulls westward through the Caribbean, and a weak trough aligns east of Florida late this weekend.
253 PM CDT THU SEP 8 2016 A broad upper trough has developed across the northern half of the CONUS, while high pressure remains across the Gulf Coast, with a SW-NE oriented shear axis still in place over the area.
This activity continues to push westward in flow averaging ~15KT in the lowest 1KM, weakening to 5-10KT up around 2-3KM according to CCAFS DRWP data. Easterlies are a little stronger through a deeper layer offshore south FL, with 20KT in the lowest 1KM, and 15KT up through 700MB.
Leading edge of deeper moisture should be moving into the eastern counties toward sunrise and some of the high res models indicate the possibility of showers developing prior to sunrise so have nudged up rain chances in the areas east of a Livingston to Pasadena to Angleton line and lowered them in the west between 3 and 7 am. The upper level high pressure ridge over the far inland counties of SE Texas has kept the shower development toward the central and coastal counties.
146 PM EDT THU SEP 8 2016 The strong ridge aloft over the MS/OH valleys will keep us much warmer than normal through the end of the week. Muggy air will stick around until a cold front passes this weekend.
400 PM EDT THU SEP 8 2016 The strong ridge aloft over the MS/OH valleys will keep us much warmer than normal through the end of the week. Muggy air will stick around until a strong cold front passes this weekend.
359 PM CDT THU SEP 8 2016 Afternoon WV imagery and RAP 500 hPa height analysis show a broad upper level ridge continues to extend across the Gulf Coast. The vort max is associated with an inverted trough moving westward that is forecast to move over SC TX on Friday.
The upper level high pressure ridge over the far inland counties of SE Texas has kept the shower development toward the central and coastal counties.
This is in an area where temperatures in the lower to middle 90s and dew point temperatures near 70. The backing of the low level flow may be what it takes to see some isolated showers develop in this part of the area. A cold front will move into the Panhandle late in the day. Aloft, a weak mid level trough located over New Mexico today will shift overhead for Friday. Slight cooler temperatures in the mid levels in association with this feature and slightly warmer temperatures at the surface south of the front should result in some convective precipitation developing, areas east of the I-27 corridor favored at this time.
657 PM EDT Thu Sep 8 2016 High pressure will prevail into this weekend.
734 PM EDT Thu Sep 8 2016 Strong high pressure will remain over the region tonight and Friday. A weak cold front will dip south toward the area by early Friday before lifting back north as a warm front by Friday night.
High pressure continues to persist at the surface and aloft. The center of the 500mb ridge over the Mississippi Valley this afternoon shifts eastward and is centered over the southeast by tomorrow morning.
1205 PM CDT THU SEP 8 2016 Cold front is approaching nw portion of CWA and is not expected to clear the far southeast until 8 PM or so. Mixing creating some breaks in the low cloud cover, with some erosion along and just ahead of the front as the stratus becomes more cellular. Should see the broken deck lift to VFR by mid-afternoon but will not scatter out until drier air overspreads the area behind cold front that exits the region around 01Z. West winds will increase to 10 to 15 knots and then turn northwest behind cold front that reaches the nearshore areas between 00Z and 01Z Friday. Winds lower overnight as weak high pressure slides across.
254 PM CDT THU SEP 8 2016 The primary concern through Friday night continues to be heavy rain and flooding concerns although a handful of severe storms will be likely on Friday along a southward moving cold front. a southward advancing cold front will provide a focus for storms after 21z continuing through the evening and overnight hours for portions of the area.
244 PM MDT THU SEP 8 2016 Current surface map shows trof moving through western South Dakota. Better chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms overnight into Friday as secondary upper trof swings through the forecast area. Cooler and breezy conditions for Friday. Dry and warmer conditions will develop over the weekend as a weak ridge crosses the area.
Through Friday, the Eastern Tennessee forecast is going to revolve around the strength of the upper level ridge currently parked over the southeast United States. Latest model trends suggest that the precipitation associated with frontal boundary draped across the Ohio and Mid-Mississippi Valleys will remain north of the area due to the strength of the high pressure to our south. Temperatures will be warm ahead of this cold front with most everybody well above normal.
311 PM EDT Thu Sep 8 2016 High pressure will prevail into this weekend.
High pressure aloft will prevail over the region through Friday.
Water Vapor Satellite/WSR-88D Vad Wind Profiles this afternoon indicate a ridge of high pressure located over portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast United States. Highs on Friday will be similar to today with highs in the lower 90s at most locations.
356 PM EDT Thu Sep 8 2016 Strong high pressure will remain over the region tonight and Friday. A weak cold front will dip south toward the area by early Friday before lifting back north as a warm front by Friday night.
The broad upper-level trough descending south from Canada continues its progress tonight and Friday.
653 PM CDT THU SEP 8 2016 Persistent aviation pattern with upper ridge remaining in place. /issued 243 PM CDT THU SEP 8 2016/ Upper ridge continues to hold fast lover the srn/sern CONUS and is centered almost directly ovhd.
One more hot/humid day expected on Friday ahead of cold front, which will move into northeast Oklahoma Friday evening.
635 PM CDT THU SEP 8 2016 CAMS solutions are showing, and radar is beginning to reflect, the potential for storm development this evening ahead of an approaching upper trough. Upper level southwest flow will be in place tonight through Friday morning ahead of an approaching trough.
1256 PM CDT THU SEP 8 2016 An upper level ridge will continue to dominate the weather picture across North Texas through Friday. /ISSUED 408 AM CDT THU SEP 8 2016/ A large upper level ridge of high pressure will remain sprawled across Texas and the interior Southeast U.
222 PM EDT THU SEP 8 2016 Low pressure will cross the region tonight as it pulls a cold front through.
/Issued 735 AM EDT THU SEP 8 2016/ High pressure. Models are in good agreement with handling of upper level ridging and the trough/associated weakening surface front.
Models continue to show isolated/scattered showers/storms will remain possible this afternoon/evening with the highest chances across portions of Northern OK. A better chance for widespread showers and storms will start Friday afternoon and evening, as a cold front approaches northern Oklahoma.
346 PM CDT THU SEP 8 2016 High pressure ridge axis was over the forecast area this afternoon. Meanwhile, some additional clouds, mainly cirrus, was beginning to move along the Canadian border in the warm air advection ahead of an upper trof approaching the Northern Plains. The upper trof remains over North Dakota. Used a blended approach to pops, leaning closer to the high resolution HIRESARW/HIRESNMM models for timing and coverage.
105 PM CDT THU SEP 8 2016 I spy a Cold Front, at the surface, extending from eastern IA into northern MO. The High aloft is still really strong and holding thru the day Friday, but begins to show weakening here Friday night as a sharper Trof aloft presses in from the northwest.
Tonight, the cold front, which will be clearing the MPX CWA around 6/7am this morning will start drifting back north across Iowa as a warm front in response to height falls associated with the Montana wave mentioned earlier. High pressure moving across the area today will leave us with some work to do with moistening the low levels to get precip to the ground, so did delay precip onset until mainly after 6z. A few short wave troughs and frontal boundaries will move through the region, but none appear to have significant deep layer moisture or instability associated with them, so for now it looks like they will bring mainly garden variety precipitation. Some PoPs are needed for Friday and Friday night as a cold front moves through the area.
In the upper levels, a large ridge remains spread across much of the southeast half of Conus from the northern part of Mexico northeastward into the Ohio Valley. 08 The upper level ridge will remain the primary influence on our weather through the rest of the work week, helping to keep conditions hot and dry. High pressure aloft will suppress convective activity. 58/rose A ridge of high pressure aloft will help to suppress shower and thunderstorm development through Friday, with low rain chances returning over the weekend.
1033 AM EDT Fri Aug 26 2016 High pressure remains off the coast through tonight. A weak cold front will cross the region this morning. High pressure will return for the weekend. Mid-upper level ridge will continue to build over the region today leading to hot and dry conditions through the weekend. drier air will gradually slide southward from the north as high pressure builds in.
742 AM EDT FRI AUG 26 2016 A large ridge of high pressure at the surface and aloft will build over the Mid Atlantic Region through the upcoming weekend, bringing a string of warm and dry days.