Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
As the nose of a thermal ridge sits across the western portion of the CWA. There will be one more day of warm temperatures on Tuesday, the thermal ridge will still be situated over the forecast area, albeit weaker, temperatures will still push into the upper 50s, with a few locations still reaching 60 degrees. Winds will be breezy on Tuesday afternoon into the overnight as the cold front passes. Sustained winds on Monday will be around 10 to 20 mph, however the stronger winds will be across the northwest Sandhills and not coincide where the lowest RH values exist. As for Tuesday, the lowest RH values will exist across SW Nebraska.
Light accumulations of up to an inch are possible across the area with higher totals of one to two inches possible along the higher terrain, mainly above 1500 feet. Snow will taper off from northwest to southeast late this morning but will linger over the higher terrain, mainly in counties bordering Virginia and west Virginia. Highs today will top out within a degree or two of the freezing mark. Snow will end over the higher terrain late this evening. conditions are expected to continue improving into the day Tuesday as high pressure continues to shift to the east and winds increase from the south/southwest. Dry weather is expected on Tuesday as high pressure over the deep south will be in control.
Look for mild weather today before a passing low delivers slightly cooler temperatures and chances for very light precipitation on Tuesday.
Breezy, Cooler/Drier Today, Cold Tonight. Cooler today with readings in the L60s north of I-4 and M-U60s southward thru Okeechobee County and the Treasure Coast. Expect temperatures to drop pretty quickly after sunset with eventual lows overnight in the U30s to L40s areawide, except some M30s across normally cooler rural locations over the interior. Some patchy frost will also be possible over our normally cooler (rural) spots of the interior, especially areas that are sheltered. A weak, reinforcing frontal trough will push across the area with additional dry/cold air. Cooler and drier conditions with breezy west winds 15-20 mph and gusty.
Otherwise, with lingering clouds for most of the day combined with the cold air and snow cover, temperatures will be a bit below normal in the low 30s to around 40 degrees today. In the meantime, northern and southern stream troughs over the western U.
Overnight lows into early Tue morning will also be warmer as a LLJ develops.
Models indicated that the block will begin to break down during the day as the low beneath the West Coast ridge opens and approaches the Catalina Islands later today. Dry weather will continue as moisture remains limited in the lower levels of the atmosphere.
Fog remains the primary concern for today with upper ridging set up over the Great Basin this morning.
Models show the upper ridge around and over the CWA today/tonight.
On the other hand, overnight KY RWIS readings show road temperatures around freezing which could help maintain light snow accumulations during the morning commute. Temperatures for this holiday will start in the mid 20s, lower where there is snowpack, and peak a few degrees above freezing. However, there will be enough wind for the feel-like temperatures to be in the low 20s by lunchtime. As the high pressure rapidly moves east along the Gulf States, winds will turn to a southerly direction and encourage enough WAA to boost highs to the upper 40s.
/28/ With the low pressure system that brought snowfall to portions of the region 24 hours ago having traveled up the eastern seaboard, conditions today will be chilly but dry. The main upper trough will continue to be located across our region which will result in continued cooler temperatures today. Highs will top out in the upper 40s in the northeast to the lower to mid 50s elsewhere. Overnight lows will be chilly, around or just below freezing for most locations.
A broad western CONUS ridge will deamplify slightly today ahead of another approaching wave. Here, we will end up seeing widespread highs in the lower 30s to lower 40s. Over the Turtle Mountains and down through the James River Valley, expect temperatures to be a bit cooler (in the 20s) given a fresher snowpack and clouds that will linger through the day. The next Clipper and associated cold front will cross the state from northwest to southeast overnight tonight, dipping lows into the single digits above zero over the far north. Elsewhere expect lows generally in the lower teens to lower 20s. Behind the cold front, it will become very windy late morning and through the afternoon on Tuesday.
Cooler and drier air is still filtering into the Keys, with dewpoint temperatures currently in the mid 50s. If the cloud deck breaks this evening, temperatures could dip into the lower 60s over the larger island in the Keys once the winds lay day and allow some decent radiation cooling. In the upper Keys, cooler temperatures advecting off the mainland could drop temps in the mid 50s.
SHORT TERM (Today through Tuesday): Surface ridging along the Texas coast tracks eastward tonight and Tuesday as flattening upper ridge moves over the state. Temperatures start off chilly this morning, matter of fact only a few locations are observed at or near freezing overnight with the freezing warning in jeopardy of verifying. With the southerly flow becoming established overnight low Tuesday morning will be at least 10 degrees warmer.
Yesterday we overachieved on highs and probably will again today and tomorrow, so to compensate went on the high end of guidance with NBM 90th for both days. With the warmer temperatures and breezy southwest winds at the sfc, RH values will be in the near critical range for a couple of hours across portions of the west and southwest this afternoon. Tuesday will be warmer still with highs in the 60s for most places. Aloft our northwest flow will become quasi zonal as a broad upper trof moves across the Canadian border towards the Great Lakes region.
504 AM EST Mon Jan 17 2022 Low pressure moving across the Mid-Atlantic region will result in continued snowfall today. After 12z Monday / 7am EST, the deformation snow band will be in the process of exiting the forecast area as the low lifts into New England. Sustained wind speed and gusts will increase in the higher terrain of the WV and PA Alleghenies on Monday, which will likely result in blowing snow and lowered visibility. Tonight, coverage in snow showers will gradually taper off, though not completely, as drier air filters into the DGZ ahead of an approaching ridge axis. A sprawling large-scale trough covering central and eastern portions of Canada and the United States will yield a very high confidence forecast of continued arctic surges and the coldest air that we've experienced to date.
Weak upper low is currently approaching the Central Coast bringing areas of high and mid-level clouds, but no precipitation to NorCal. Upper low will continue to open up into wave as it moves east into northern Arizona Tuesday. Eastern Pacific upper ridge will build eastward over California through the week with a slight warming trend. However, conditions for fog formation will become more favorable through the week, as the high builds overhead with light winds and clear skies.
High pressure will remain in place across the region today.
Finally a bit of a reprieve from the active pattern in the wake of the winter storm and the main lingering impacts will be possible black ice this morning across mainly the northern majority of the CWA from any freezing of moisture left on roadways and some enhanced west to NW gradient winds. Will continue to cover the black ice potential with the Special Weather Statement through mid-morning as we start to warm up aside from the northern mtns which may actually stay below freezing through the day. Tuesday looks to be quiet as we are dry and mostly clear as ridging prevails. The resultant afternoon highs moderate warmer though stay several degrees below climo as most locations look to make it to the upper 40s to 50s.
537 AM CST Mon Jan 17 2022 Dry, cool, and cloudy weather will prevail today as a high pressure ridge moves into the area. Dry weather is expected as a high pressure ridge moves across the area. Once the high pressure moves east, Tuesday highs will be quite warm, reaching into the upper 30s in the northwest to the middle 40s in the southeast. This will be short-lived with the remainder of the week being very cold as a cold front drives through the state Wed, resulting in falling temps through the day. Very cold temps will continue the rest of the week with most areas seeing highs below freezing each day.
There is also a break in the lower clouds that is currently moving east across the area and should move through the I-35 corridor over the next few hours. This low will drag the Arctic cold front southeast across the area late Tuesday afternoon and early evening, with quickly falling temperatures and gusty northwest winds developing. However, much of that area saw above freezing temperatures yesterday and will see the same today and Tuesday.
Patchy dense fog will exist in the Missoula valley as well as the lower valleys across northwest Montana. Inversions across the region will deteriorate during the afternoon as the upper level high pressure ridge over the region weakens and a winter weather system moves into the region. Some brief light freezing rain may impact the lower valleys across northwest Montana this evening. A cold front in Alberta, Canada will move southward and across the Continental Divide Monday night into Tuesday.
/issued 311 AM CST Mon Jan 17 2022/ Currently across the Mid-South, we have temperatures into the low to mid 30s. Daytime temperatures will warm into the low to mid 50s by Tuesday.
336 AM MST Mon Jan 17 2022 The quiet weather pattern continues for one more day with ridging aloft and mild temperatures for mid-January. Snow showers will mainly be limited to the terrain of the Absarokas and Bighorns, but cooler air will also begin pushing southward out of Montana, lowering temperatures in the Bighorn and Powder River Basin. Typical breezy winds will accompany the weak cold front pushing in from the north during the evening hours.
451 AM MST Mon Jan 17 2022 Northwest flow between the Hudson Bay low and west coast ridge will persist through the week across northeast Montana. The first wave will send an Alberta clipper through the northern plains and drop a cold front into Montana late tonight. Strong cold air advection through the day will keep the winds up as high pressure pushes in behind the front.
646 AM EST Mon Jan 17 2022 Low pressure moving across the Mid-Atlantic region will result in continued snowfall today. After 12z Monday / 7am EST, the deformation snow band will be in the process of exiting the forecast area as the low lifts into New England. Sustained wind speed and gusts will increase in the higher terrain of the WV and PA Alleghenies on Monday, which will likely result in blowing snow and lowered visibility. Tonight, coverage in snow showers will gradually taper off, though not completely, as drier air filters into the DGZ ahead of an approaching ridge axis. A sprawling large-scale trough covering central and eastern portions of Canada and the United States will yield a very high confidence forecast of continued arctic surges and the coldest air that we've experienced to date.
311 AM CST Mon Jan 17 2022 Currently across the Mid-South, we have temperatures into the low to mid 30s. Daytime temperatures will warm into the low to mid 50s by Tuesday.
Benign weather pattern under high pressure will continue through Tuesday.
A few locations in the north and Western Ranchlands have been below freezing and are likely to remain at or below 32 until 8 to 9 AM. Locations across Northern Hidalgo and Willacy could touch 32 degrees briefly before sunrise with temperatures anticipated to bump quickly above the freezing mark. Very dry atmosphere with high pressure in control. /issued 420 AM CST Mon Jan 17 2022/ SHORT TERM (Today through Tuesday): Surface ridging along the Texas coast tracks eastward tonight and Tuesday as flattening upper ridge moves over the state. Temperatures start off chilly this morning, matter of fact only a few locations are observed at or near freezing overnight with the freezing warning in jeopardy of verifying. With the southerly flow becoming established overnight low Tuesday morning will be at least 10 degrees warmer.
High pressure currently centered over the southern Plains will slide east today and tonight, then settle near northern Florida on Tuesday.
802 AM EST Mon Jan 17 2022 Low pressure moving across the Mid-Atlantic region will result in continued snowfall today. Frontogenesis and vorticity advection are still very much present and contributing to overall ascent on the back side of this eastward propagating trough. Several more inches are likely in the higher elevations as upslope will be favored. Sustained wind speed and gusts will increase in the higher terrain of the WV and PA Alleghenies on Monday, which will likely result in blowing snow and lowered visibility. Light accumulation is possible Tuesday morning in the WV ridges and Laurel Mountains. Low pressure propagating sewd across the Great Lakes will provide the chance for precipitation on Monday, with likely a frontal passage that could result in progressive precip chances of rain/snow mix.
426 AM MST Mon Jan 17 2022 Water vapor shows west coast ridge extending into the Pac NW and Northern Rockies, with disturbed northwest flow north of the ridge. A stronger upper wave will top the ridge on Tuesday, with the ridge axis retrograding west and cyclonic flow aloft developing. Arctic cold front will dive through early in the day, resulting in falling temps and gusty northwest winds.
(This evening through Tuesday) Expect warm and dry conditions Tuesday due to low level southwest flow and a thermal ridge in the area.
Conditions will be below freezing this evening and overnight, even through the morning hours Tuesday, so expect area roads to have slick spots especially less traveled routes.
Have PoPs lingering a little longer across the highest elevations of far eastern TN and SW VA. KS Chattanooga Airport, TN 24 48 34 53 29 / 0 0 0 80 90 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 23 46 30 50 27 / 10 0 0 80 90 Oak Ridge, TN 22 45 31 48 25 / 10 0 0 80 90 Tri Cities Airport, TN 20 40 24 47 26 / 20 0 0 60 100 TN.
1012 AM MST Mon Jan 17 2022 The quiet weather pattern continues for one more day with ridging aloft and mild temperatures for mid-January. Snow showers will mainly be limited to the terrain of the Absarokas and Bighorns, but cooler air will also begin pushing southward out of Montana, lowering temperatures in the Bighorn and Powder River Basin. Typical breezy winds will accompany the weak cold front pushing in from the north during the evening hours.
Temperatures are 5-7 degrees warmer than at this time yesterday over portions of the plains just east of the foothills as well as the metro area. Bumped up high temperatures a bit in those mentioned areas in response to the warmer trend in values. Models show the upper ridge around and over the CWA today/tonight.
Tranquil conditions will continue tonight into Tuesday as a weakening northwest flow aloft becomes more zonal tonight due to ridging breaking down in the Intermountain West. This combined with a much drier air mass prevailing in the lower/mid levels will keep precip chances out of western Kansas through the period. Temperatures will not be as cold tonight as prevailing south-southwesterlies draw slightly warmer air into southwest/central Kansas. However, mostly clear skies and lighter winds will still allow lows to drop below freezing tonight with temperatures mainly in the 20s. The lower 30s are possible in extreme southwest Kansas. Despite likely increasing clouds, look for highs back up into the upper 50s to the lower/mid 60s(F) Tuesday afternoon with the help of downsloping.
/NF/ With the low pressure system that brought snowfall to portions of the region 24 hours ago having traveled up the eastern seaboard, conditions today will be chilly but dry. The main upper trough will continue to be located across our region which will result in continued cooler temperatures today. Highs will top out in the upper 40s in the northeast to the lower to mid 50s elsewhere. Overnight lows will be chilly, around or just below freezing for most locations.
331 PM EST Mon Jan 17 2022 Windy conditions through this evening as high pressure builds into the region. The high pressure along with cool and dry air will remain over the region through the middle of the week producing a more typical January pattern.
While winds won't be strong along the trough, very warm January air from the west will bring temperatures approaching 80 degrees to parts of northern TX and southwestern OK.
Satellite showed areas of fog (not dense) in many other valleys throughout our CWA this morning, with higher clouds outlining the persistent broad upper ridge above.
932 AM MST Mon Jan 17 2022 Sent an update this morning to provide near, short-term forecast details regarding cold front / wind timing for overnight tonight through Tuesday. Looks to be quite a pronounced cold front. Snow associated with tomorrow's cold front will be disorganized and patch at best - roughly a trace up to half an inch of accumulation for most locations. BMickelson Previous discussion: Northwest flow between the Hudson Bay low and west coast ridge will persist through the week across northeast Montana. The first wave will send an Alberta clipper through the northern plains and drop a cold front into Montana late tonight. Strong cold air advection through the day will keep the winds up as high pressure pushes in behind the front.
RMcQueen Quasi-zonal flow will persist over the next 24 hours across West Texas as a minor trough axis approaches tonight from the four-corners region. This trough is initially only loosely coupled with a lobe of energy rotating around a parent low across Hudson Bay. The phasing looks to become more coherent by late week taking on the look of a trailing trough sweeping from the Great Lakes into Sonora.
Have PoPs lingering a little longer across the highest elevations of far eastern TN and SW VA. An upper level trough crossing the region will keep some snow showers in the area this morning. The upper level trough will exit the area late today, ending precip but cigs should remain MVFR overnight at TYS and TRI as low level moisture gets dammed against the mountains in a westerly flow. DGS Chattanooga Airport, TN 36 24 48 34 53 / 10 0 0 0 80 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 34 23 46 30 50 / 30 10 0 0 80 Oak Ridge, TN 33 22 45 31 48 / 30 10 0 0 80 Tri Cities Airport, TN 30 20 40 24 47 / 50 20 0 0 60 TN.
Windy conditions look to return to central Indiana late tomorrow afternoon into the evening as the aforementioned low pressure continues to move into the Great Lakes region and tight pressure gradients build between it and a broad area of high pressure across the Southeastern Gulf States. This strong southerly flow will help bring the warmest weather since mid week last week with highs in the low to mid 40s across the area.
Additional stratus may form early Tue AM and linger some amount through Tue with the low level warm advection. Gehring (Issued 414 AM CST Mon Jan 17 2022) Today and Tonight: As the strong low pressure system over the east coast continues to move northward toward the New England states today.
254 PM CST Mon Jan 17 2022 A large and powerful cyclone is pummeling the northeast CONUS ahead of a broad upper trough traversing across the eastern half of the country.
120 PM EST Mon Jan 17 2022 The early morning stratocu cloud deck over the area, with associated sprinkles, has morphed into a spectacular day, with mostly clear skies and temperatures in the low 70s. Overnight winds are expected to drop precipitously, as the boundary ridging builds into the southeast and Gulf, and winds veer more north northeast.
1015 AM MST Mon Jan 17 2022 Water vapor shows west coast ridge extending into the Pac NW and Northern Rockies, with disturbed northwest flow north of the ridge. A stronger upper wave will top the ridge on Tuesday, with the ridge axis retrograding west and cyclonic flow aloft developing. Arctic cold front will dive through early in the day, resulting in falling temps and gusty northwest winds.
The southern tier of counties may reach the lower 40s. For areas that stay cloudy, highs could end up a few degrees cooler than forecast.
19z surface map indicated a ridge axis from eastern TX up through MN, with deep 982 mb low pressure over the interior northeast U. With the ridge axis shifting overhead, winds will become lighter and back southwest. A cold front trailing south of the clipper shifts across the area Tuesday night, but this is moisture-starved and no precip is forecast.
1009 AM EST Mon Jan 17 2022 The area of low pressure and cold front that moved through the area yesterday continue to track northeastward over New England. High pressure builds in behind this system advecting some cooler and drier air over west central and southwest Florida for the next 48 hours. These cool temps will continue tonight with some freezing temperatures possible over the inland areas from Citrus County northward. Improving marine conditions expected starting Tuesday evening and continuing through the end of the week as high pressure builds in over the region.
Tranquil conditions will continue tonight into Tuesday as a weakening northwest flow aloft becomes more zonal tonight due to ridging breaking down in the Intermountain West. This combined with a much drier air mass prevailing in the lower/mid levels will keep precip chances out of western Kansas through the period. Temperatures will not be as cold tonight as prevailing south-southwesterlies draw slightly warmer air into southwest/central Kansas. However, mostly clear skies and lighter winds will still allow lows to drop below freezing tonight with temperatures mainly in the 20s. The lower 30s are possible in extreme southwest Kanss. Despite likely increasing clouds, look for highs back up into the upper 50s to the lower/mid 60s(F) Tuesday afternoon with the help of downsloping.
A few isolated rain showers or sprinkles are possible this afternoon over the northern San Joaquin Valley into the southern Motherlode as the low pressure system that has been off the coast for several days shifts inland. Weak upper low is currently approaching the Central Coast bringing areas of high and mid-level clouds, but no precipitation to NorCal. Upper low will continue to open up into wave as it moves east into northern Arizona Tuesday. Eastern Pacific upper ridge will build eastward over California through the week with a slight warming trend. However, conditions for fog formation will become more favorable through the week, as the high builds overhead with light winds and clear skies.
125 PM MST Mon Jan 17 2022 Active NW flow will persist as mean western NOAM ridging directs impulses into the Northern Plains along an anchored baroclinic zone. Flurries and clouds may linger through Wed across the SW third before a warm front shifts back NE Thur into Fri with the next upper trough.
Model soundings show a strong inversion around 900mb overnight keeping the low level moisture in place and us under the low stratus. With these clouds in place, temperatures won't likely fall off to much except for where we have the highest snowpack across our eastern CWA where lows could fall to near 20/upper teens. Highs will be 15-20 degrees warmer than today with highs in the low to mid 40s. An upper low off the California coast today will open up into a trough as it heads east and joins with another upper trough dropping out of Canada mid-week.
Water vapor imagery this afternoon showing a deep trough over the eastern CONUS with a developing ridge upstream off the west coast. Also noted was a cut off low pressure system off the CA coastline. At the surface, high pressure ridge just east of the CWA was displacing eastward with stout warm air advection following behind resulting in a few locations over the western CWA pushing into the low 50s.