Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
149 AM EDT Tue Oct 18 2016 A cold front will sweep across the region this afternoon bringing low chances for an isolated rain shower, with mainly dry and slightly cooler conditions expected in its wake Tonight into Wednesday morning.
A few higher terrain areas near the I-35 terminals may see LIFR conditions near daybreak, but model guidances have shown to be too pessimistic with the lower conditions at the I-35 TAF sites. Influence of the mid and upper level ridge continues across South-Central Texas in the short term. Lows will only dip to the low 70s to upper 60s as stratus and partial mixing occurs overnight.
A warming and drying trend is forecast for the second half of the week as high pressure builds over the region.
Convergence along associated weak surface boundary/cold front will be weak this afternoon with precipitable h2o values at a half inch or less. The remainder of the work week looks dry but cooler. high pressure will build in and with much cooler thermal profile temperatures will range at or below normal. Long wave ridge over western North America and long wave trough over eastern North America amplify a bit for the first 3 days of the period then shifts east the last two days.
By Tuesday, high pressure over the CO/WY rockies will slide over the central plains resulting mostly sunny skies and westerly flow at the surface. Model soundings suggest a mixture of rain/snow possible over parts of northeastern Wyoming and the Black Hills Tuesday night, though surface temperatures should remain at or just above freezing, resulting in very little to no snow accumulations. A weak upper trough will cross the forecast area on Wednesday creating small chances for showers and low level cold advection on Wednesday will bring slightly cooler than average temperatures.
Meanwhile, high pressure continues to build in from the west in the upper levels ahead of a longwave trough currently digging in over the Great Plains. Strong subsidence from this high pressure will help to keep shower activity suppressed for the most part, though a few isolated showers and afternoon thunderstorms will be possible for coastal areas in the far southwest portion of the forecast area. Afternoon highs continue to run warmer than normal, with Tuesday afternoon temps reaching the upper 80's inland and lower 80's along the coast. Overnight lows Tuesday night will dip into the lower 60's inland and upper 60s to around 70 near the coast.
633 AM EDT Tue Oct 18 2016 A cold front will sweep across the region this afternoon bringing low chances for an isolated rain shower, with mainly dry and slightly cooler conditions expected in its wake tonight into Wednesday morning.
413 AM EDT Tue Oct 18 2016 A cold front will sweep across the region this afternoon bringing low chances for an isolated rain shower, with mainly dry and slightly cooler conditions expected in its wake tonight into Wednesday morning.
A robust warming and drying trend is forecast for the second half of the week as high pressure builds over the region.
At the surface, an area of low pressure has been gradually pushing east across the area, accompanied by a cold frontal boundary which is about halfway through the CWA. 3 pm temps range from the upper 60s where that stratus was, to the lower 80s on the fringes of the CWA. At the surface, this area of low pressure/front will continue pushing east this evening, with high pressure building in across the region during the day tomorrow. Will be a pleasant, cooler day tomorrow, with winds in the afternoon around 5-10 MPH and highs in the mid 60s to near 70.
However, as drier air advects in from the north and deepens, the low cloudiness has dissipated. Expect much of the low clouds to be out of the forecast area an hour or two after sunrise. Otherwise, cold advection will continue today as thermal trof builds toward state.
One last storm system will cross northern Utah and southwest Wyoming today before high pressure returns for the latter half of the week.
Cold front as seen on satellite imagery and surface obs is currently positioned along a KMCI to KGAG line continuing to push southeastwards.
SHORT TERM (Today through Wednesday): The H5 ridge finally begins to shift away from deep south Texas later today, which will get the region out from the oppressive late summer heat. With the ridge shifting east by tonight, cloud cover along the coast will have a better ability for vertical development. Wednesday, models indicate a small vort max wrapping around the departing ridge, pushing inland further up the coast between CRP and Houston. High Wednesday will be slightly lower as the compressional heating under the ridge departs.
which should continue to thin through daybreak as additional drier air spills SE with the upper trough passage.
/issued 302 PM CDT Thu Oct 20 2016/ A cold front continues to push through the Mid-South this afternoon. High pressure will build over the Mid-South on Friday and will remain over the area through the weekend.
Low Pressure over kentucky late this afternoon will push northeast tonight. dragging a cold front along the Ohio River father southeast. As the low departs the area. High pressure over the Central Plains states is expected to build across the region. Current temps across the area are ranging from the low to mid 50s and are projected to dip into the low to mid 40s. As the cold front sags southward. Thus will trend toward the cooler MAVMOS lows. After the departure of the broad trough in place across the area on Friday. GFS and NAM suggest Strong ridging to build across the western plains and slowly spill eastward.
Temperatures will cool off closer to normal by this weekend as high pressure currently over the West Coast moves to the east.
1244 AM EDT Fri Oct 21 2016 Rain will continue for much of the area through this evening as a low pressure system lingers overhead. Highs will be in the 50s Trough will continue to shift slowly east into the region and become negatively tilted over the next 24 hours, causing a slower eastward progression. Large band of rain associated with the deformation zone of low pressure moving through the Ohio Valley, has been slowly shifting east to areas along and east of I-69 with lighter rain/drizzle to the west.
551 PM MDT THU OCT 20 2016 00Z TAF CYCLE A strong high pressure system will move over the SW US from the W tonight and Friday with abundant sunshine and generally light winds. Also, a lee trough on the eastern plains will probably induce some gusty winds on Friday. Cooler temperatures were short lived today but they will rebound quickly Friday into the weekend to above normal readings areawide as the dry, upper level ridge shifts eastward.
730 PM EDT THU OCT 20 2016 High pressure will retreat offshore in advance of a cold front and upper level low pressure trough approaching from the west tonight, then cross the area Friday through Friday night. Cool high pressure will build in from the west over the weekend. High pressure over the Carolinas will continue to weaken tonight as heights aloft begin to fall ahead of an upper trough amplifying over the Tenn Valley. Lows should be on the highest side of guidance, 60-63. Falling heights aloft with the deepening upper trough, up to 180m by Friday afternoon, and a cold front accompanied by rather strong FGEN will help to overcome the overall lack of deep moisture on Friday, will result in band of showers that will cross the area between 12Z and 21Z.
Winds will remain light overnight but then pick up out of the northwest through Friday as a cold front moves through the state, ushering in very nice weather for the weekend.
Still feel peak gusts will be around the low-mid 50s from 03-06z, after which the onset of mid level cold advection will allow for the gap flow to be modified and begin a gradual decrease into early Friday. Broad trof, with associated jet streak over northeastern Washington, was continuing inland this afternoon. After 9PM the winds should begin to subside as pressure rises move into the plains behind the trof and jet streak. As the trof slides through, a small chance of showers is possible north of Livingston, Billings, and Miles City overnight, but with minimal forcing, and some residual downslope winds, we wont see much coverage.
842 PM CDT Thu Oct 20 2016 Storms have weakened this evening with the loss of diurnal support, but widespread showers across the eastern half of the area are ongoing along the cold front.
High pressure should provide mostly clear and cooler conditions tomorrow, with highs only in the mid to upper 50s, with persistent NW winds. Further east, clouds will hold on long enough to keep lows in the lower 40s. High pressure will slide overhead on Friday, resulting in sunny skies and cool high temperatures in the middle to upper 50s. High pressure ridge will sit right over the CWA Friday night, and with clear skies and light winds, frost will be a concern. Based on the forecasted ridge axis, believe the best area for frost will be in the eastern half of the CWA. High pressure will dominate the area with dry weather through most of the weekend.
The cold front has shifted SE into Scntrl LA/Srn and Ecntrl MS early this evening.
844 PM PDT Thu Oct 20 2016 Rain will taper off but still linger over Southeastern Washington and the lower Idaho Panhandle on Friday.
Cold front has sagged through the region with ample dry air pushing in from the north-northeast with some gusty winds. Skies will continue to scatter out and clear as drier air, behind the ensuing cold front, pushes in. Scattered convection along and ahead of the cold front, located from near Port Lavaca to south of Beeville to south of Encinal at 20Z, will continue to push south through the area through late afternoon. The cooler and drier air will push through the area with winds becoming breezy along the coast tonight into Friday morning.
WV imagery indicates an upper level trough of low pressure moving eastward across the Central Plains. Meanwhile, upper level ridging is slowly building across the Desert Southwest. Near the surface, high pressure is shifting slowly eastward across central Kansas. Current thinking is a few locations, especially the lower lying areas may touch freezing mark briefly with most broad areas remaining in the mid 30s. Much warmer temperatures in the low to mid 70s are likely Thursday afternoon with abundant insolation and gusty afternoon winds nearing 30 knots at times from Liberal to Hays and eastward. Highs will rise into the low 80s for the weekend as a strong upper ridge develops across the mid section of the country.
/issued 317 PM CDT THU OCT 20 2016/ (Today and Tonight) Much cooler across West Central Texas this afternoon, with temperatures from the lower 70s across the I-20 corridor at Abilene and Sweetwater, to the upper 70s across the I-10 corridor at Junction. Will stick to the coolest of the guidance readings, showing overnight lows mainly in the low to mid 40s. (Friday Night through Thursday) An upper level ridge will occupy the central CONUS by Friday night with the forecast area sitting under the closed upper high at the base of the ridge.
Mid level trough axis continues to translate eastward this afternoon while a drier airmass upstream filters southward into northeast Kansas. Some uncertainty on how well the low levels decouple overnight as light northerly winds veer towards the south by sunrise. Slightly better mixing with sunshine throughout the day should result in highs from the lower 60s east to upper 60s west.
1133 PM CDT Thu Oct 20 2016 A period of MVFR ceilings will impact most of the terminals at times through 10z in the wake of a cold front pushing across the forecast area overnight.
/ISSUED 854 PM CDT Thu Oct 20 2016/ The cold front was off the coast at mid evening. Much cooler and drier conditions will follow the front and breezy conditions are possible along the coastal counties. /ISSUED 320 PM CDT Thu Oct 20 2016/ Showers and a couple storms will continue to be an issue over the next several hours as a cold front works through SE Texas.
Skies will continue to scatter out and clear as drier air, behind the ensuing cold front, pushes in. Scattered convection along and ahead of the cold front, located from near Port Lavaca to south of Beeville to south of Encinal at 20Z, will continue to push south through the area through late afternoon. The cooler and drier air will push through the area with winds becoming breezy along the coast tonight into Friday morning.
854 PM CDT Thu Oct 20 2016 The cold front was off the coast at mid evening. Much cooler and drier conditions will follow the front and breezy conditions are possible along the coastal counties. A tight pressure gradient in the wake of a cold front will keep winds up overnight especially near the coast. /ISSUED 320 PM CDT Thu Oct 20 2016/ Showers and a couple storms will continue to be an issue over the next several hours as a cold front works through SE Texas.
A tight pressure gradient in the wake of a cold front will keep winds up overnight especially near the coast. /ISSUED 320 PM CDT Thu Oct 20 2016/ Showers and a couple storms will continue to be an issue over the next several hours as a cold front works through SE Texas.
Gusty winds up 25 knots are possible early this evening in the wake of the cold front. Scattered showers and thunderstorms along the main synoptic cold front are beginning to push south of our CWA, with only a few cells in southern Dimmit and Maverick Counties left. These winds should be strong enough to keep low temperatures in the low to mid 50s tonight for most locations despite clear skies, with the Hill Country and other lower-lying areas seeing some upper 40s. Lows on Friday night will be the coolest of the forecast period as light winds and clear skies allow for strong radiational cooling with lows ranging from the lower 40s in the Hill Country to lower 50s in the Rio Grande Plains.
Storms have weakened this evening with the loss of diurnal support, but widespread showers across the eastern half of the area are ongoing along the cold front.
Cold front is now pushing east of I-65, and will continue as upper trough axis begins to slide through overnight. Much Cooler Starting Tonight. Instability aloft may allow for some elevated showers as the upper trough axis swings through overnight.
Looks the dry airmass in place has won the battle with most of the showers dissipated along and ahead of the cold front. Only a few isolated showers will remain possible right ahead of the cold front now as it moves through the area this evening and overnight. As the cold front pushes southeastward across Central Alabama, winds will shift to the northwest and become gusty, prevailing around 10 to 12 knots and gust up to 20 knots at times. 56/GDG Much cooler and drier conditions for Friday.
Low clouds over the James River Valley continue to dissipate while higher clouds push in over an upper level ridge to the west. Weak wave noted in the ridge pushes over the area tonight which may be able to squeeze out a few light showers over northern locations. During the day Friday a cold front will swing through North Dakota.
1057 PM CDT Thu Oct 20 2016 Latest water vapor imagery loop shows an upper trough axis just to our east with a weak upstream trough axis sliding southeast from the Dakotas. Expect this area of high pressure to be centered over the CWA through the evening with light return flow increasing by early Friday morning. Clearing skies and calm winds overnight should allow temperatures to fall to around or just below freezing in most areas.
807 PM EDT Thu Oct 20 2016 Low pressure and a crossing cold front will generate more rain through Friday. Much cooler weather will follow for the weekend. The upper trough is progged to continue it's slow approach Friday, with the axis crossing Friday evening.
527 PM MDT Thu Oct 20 2016 Upper level analysis has trof shifting east into the Great Lakes region, and ridge building across the Northern Rockies. At the surface, high pressure resides across the eastern Dakotas, with lee trof strengthening across central MT and eastern WY. Eastern pac troughing will persist through the period as fast westerly disturbed flow over the northern pac supports trough re- loading there. This will continue to support downstream mean ridging. Flow will remain progressive with periodic disturbances ejecting out of the persistent trough.
Cold front is moving into the region this evening lifting a scattered pattern of showers with very limited thunder.
844 PM EDT Thu Oct 20 2016 Low pressure will track across southern and eastern Ohio this evening along a frontal boundary. The low will reach central pennsylvania to central New York State tonight. As the low passes it will pull a strong cold front eastward with it.
944 PM EDT Thu Oct 20 2016 Low pressure and a crossing cold front will generate more rain through Friday. Much cooler weather will follow for the weekend. The upper trough is progged to continue it's slow approach Friday, with the axis crossing Friday evening.
640 PM CDT Thu Oct 20 2016 High pressure will be in control of the weather at our TAF sites resulting in VFR conditions through the forecast period. /ISSUED 325 PM CDT Thu Oct 20 2016/ The much anticipated cold front has cleared all of North and Central Texas today ushering in much cooler air and gusty north winds. The last of the lower cloud cover is clearing the southeast counties at this hour and clear skies are expected this evening and tonight.
Cold front is now beginning to cross into nw AL heading into the early evening period. Cooler air should be on the way as well, as temp trends from the upper 50s/lower 60s spread ewd across the Mid South region.
Northwest flow aloft will persist over the next 24 hours as high pressure aloft drifts to the Sun Country of West Texas. The lowest objective Td values make it down to only about 30 degrees which would tend to make it quite challenging for the air temp to hit 32. While a station making 32 or a degree or two cooler is not out of the question, confidence is only about 20-30 pct and thus shy of watch criteria. A 589 decameter ridge will move across central Texas this weekend increasing heights/thickness values. Surface pressure troughing to the west will increase afternoon winds out of the southwest giving us a more favorable pattern for warming temperatures as well. A cold front will stall out north of the region as surface ridging spills onto the Northern Plains and Midwest.
Skies begin to clear overnight as the trough axis moves across the area.
Southern edge of precipitation along a weakening cold front was situated across the far north, from northern Baker County to the West Central Mountains north of McCall. High temperatures on Friday will be comparable to, or slightly warmer, than today.
620 PM CDT Thu Oct 20 2016 Latest water vapor imagery loop shows an upper trough axis just to our east with a weak upstream trough axis sliding southeast from the Dakotas. Expect this area of high pressure to be centered over the CWA through the evening with light return flow increasing by early Friday morning. Clearing skies and calm winds overnight should allow temperatures to fall to around or just below freezing in most areas.
957 PM EDT Thu Oct 20 2016 A strong cold front is quickly moving east into the region. Chattanooga Airport, TN 56 65 42 64 / 70 10 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 56 63 42 60 / 80 30 10 0 Oak Ridge, TN 56 62 42 59 / 80 30 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 56 59 40 55 / 90 70 10 10.
The increase in cloud cover and warmer airmass will result in warmer overnight lows tonight. The strong northwesterly flow aloft will decrease over the CWA as an upper ridge axis moves into western Colorado by the end of Friday. A pretty weak pressure gradient is progged in the lower levels and the boundary layer winds should adhere to normal diurnal patterns. Upper level high pressure over the Rocky Mountain Region will bring above normal temperatures and dry weather to north central and northeastern Colorado through the weekend.
The 7 pm regional surface analysis showed a cold front, rather strong in terms of temperature contrast, from northeast AL through coastal TX. The cooler air will lag behind the front such that there won't be a significant cool-down until Friday.
930 PM CDT Thu Oct 20 2016 Cold front is now crossing the I-65 corridor, as it continues to surge ewd. Lingering shower activity also continues along portions of the sfc boundary, although most of the precip has shifted to the ne more into s cntrl TN, where slightly better mid/upper forcing remains with the passing upper trough axis over the Midwest states. This trend will also continue into the overnight hrs, as cooler/drier air continues to spread ewd into the region. Early morning temps dropping into the lower 50s for most areas still look reasonable, given that temps in the mid/upper 50s continue to move across the MS River and into the Mid South region, embedded within increased cold air advection out of the nnw.
At mid-afternoon, cold front was pushing into the northwestern portion of Alabama.
538 PM MDT Thu Oct 20 2016 High pressure will filter warm, dry air into the region over the next couple of days. Near freezing temperatures will again be a concern tonight for many valleys. However, freezing conditions do not look to be widespread enough to warrant any highlights. Dry weather will persist for the weekend as high pressure remains in control.
639 PM CDT Thu Oct 20 2016 Low clouds over the James River Valley continue to dissipate while higher clouds push in over an upper level ridge to the west. Weak wave noted in the ridge pushes over the area tonight which may be able to squeeze out a few light showers over northern locations. During the day Friday a cold front will swing through North Dakota.
716 PM EDT Thu Oct 20 2016 Warm high pressure over the region will weaken overnight then a cold front will cross the area Friday morning.
1213 AM EDT FRI OCT 21 2016 An amplifying upper level trough and attendant cold front will track east across the Carolinas today.
1008 PM EDT Thu Oct 20 2016 Mild conditions expected overnight before a cold front crosses the area Friday morning.
With deep layer ridging across the area. Winds will become Northwest and increase by late Friday afternoon as a cold front approaches and crosses the waters.
Cold front is now crossing the I-65 corridor, as it continues to surge ewd. Lingering shower activity also continues along portions of the sfc boundary, although most of the precip has shifted to the ne more into s cntrl TN, where slightly better mid/upper forcing remains with the passing upper trough axis over the Midwest states. This trend will also continue into the overnight hrs, as cooler/drier air continues to spread ewd into the region. Early morning temps dropping into the lower 50s for most areas still look reasonable, given that temps in the mid/upper 50s continue to move across the MS River and into the Mid South region, embedded within increased cold air advection out of the nnw.
143 AM EDT Mon Mar 20 2017 It will be a quiet and dry evening as high pressure slides to our east. There is a chance for showers and a few thunderstorms overnight with the highest chances over northwest Indiana. A cold front will cross the area Monday and widespread showers and scattered thunderstorms are expected.
Light winds and cooler temperatures have allowed some fog to develop across portions of Brooks and Jim Hogg counties this morning. High temperatures today will be in upper 80s to lower 90s (except for the low to mid 80s near the coast) due to combination of abundant sunshine and a drier airmass in place.
As an UA ridge continues to nudge eastward towards the region today, an uptick in both 500 mb height fields and 850 mb temps will occur resulting in daytime temps in the 80s. Well above normal warmth will continue tomorrow as the UA ridge axis remains to our west and slightly breezy downslope winds further aid in the warmth.
127 AM EDT Mon Mar 20 2017 As low pressure moves further offshore. high pressure will continue to build in from the west overnight. A weak dry front will move southeast across the area Monday night followed by a strong cold front Tuesday evening.