Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Otherwise, another warm night is in store for ARKLAMS region as lows will be in the lower-70s. /12/ Prior discussion below: Tonight through Saturday night, An active weather pattern will take shape this weekend over the ArkLaMiss as a powerful trough over the Plains/Midwest shifts eastward and helps to break down the ridge currently centered over the Southeast. Initial thunderstorm development should begin by late morning and be somewhat disorganized due to relatively weak deep layer shear and low level flow only 15 to 20 kts, but as the trough axis and cold front approach late Saturday, the larger scale lift may help to organize storms resulting in great storm coverage.
1206 AM EDT Sat May 20 2017 High pressure in Canada will slowly build into the area through the weekend.
750 PM CDT Fri May 19 2017 A warm and muggy evening in progress across the Tennessee Valley with temperatures still in the lower to middle 80s in many areas. The synoptic scale warm front was analyzed well to our north this evening and it is hard to see any definitive trigger for overnight convection. The forecast becomes progressively wetter tomorrow afternoon as the base of the Plains upper low kicks eastward, instigating more widespread lift and spreading more moisture into the region as well.
A weak upper trough will move through the area tonight.
600 PM MDT Fri May 19 2017 Record-breaking spring storm is finally easing across the area as a broad upper level low is drifting eastward across northern Colorado this afternoon. Still getting bands of rain or rain/snow mix over the high plains, mainly due to some llvl convergence and jet dynamics, but do not expect this activity to amount to much over the next 6 to 12 hours into tonight with mainly bands of light rain. Highs will remain below normal, but should still be 10 to 15 degrees warmer compared to the last few days.
1027 PM EDT Fri May 19 2017 High pressure in Canada will slowly build into the area through the weekend.
Current showers are moving quickly west/northwestward in the coastal water west and southwest of the Lower Keys. Temperatures are in the lower 80s along the islands with fresh to occasionally strong east to southeast winds in place. There is a bit less convective resistance in the lower levels when compared to this time yesterday.
Upper ridging is underway in response to deepening plains low pressure.
509 PM MDT Fri May 19 2017 Deep closed low over the Rockies continues to slowly shift NE, ejecting small impulses in the processes. However, clouds will hang on most if not all areas and will limit temp falls below freezing on most if not all of the plains.
As the previous discussion explained, moisture will stream back into the area very quickly Saturday morning ahead of another advancing low pressure system. The chance for thunder is diminished due to our cooler conditions under dominating easterly low level flow.
616 PM CDT Fri May 19 2017 Slow moving upper low is centered in far southeast Colorado late this afternoon. Short-term; Hi-Res models insist this low will track toward the northeast and be centered south of Lexington near the NE/KS border by early Saturday morning. NAM and 4KM NAM very slowly lift the upper low northward across the forecast area Saturday. The broad mid-level trough will be over the western and central CONUS (inland from the West Coast) at the start of the period with a closed 500 hPa low over the Middle Missouri Valley.
1037 PM EDT Fri May 19 2017 As a cold front exits the region tonight, high pressure will build into the North Country providing sunny skies and seasonal temperatures through the weekend.
730 PM EDT Fri May 19 2017 As a cold front exits the region tonight, high pressure will build into the North Country providing sunny skies and seasonal temperatures through the weekend.
A weak ridge of high pressure will break down today and allow a weak short wave to move through the area Tuesday. High clouds will continue to pass through the ridge and maintain partly cloudy skies on average, though sky coverage will range from mostly clear to mostly cloudy until after the short wave passes Tuesday afternoon and the last of the upper level moisture gets pushed to the south and east.
Have less confidence in far north low level stratus will spread but latest model guidance indicates the northern edge of the low level stratus field reaching KABI by 1400Z. The KABI terminal should be near the northern edge of the low cloud field by 12Z. Temperatures will not be as cold tonight, with lows expected to range from the lower 30s across the far northern and northwestern parts of our area, to near 40 in our far southeastern counties. (Tuesday through Monday) Patchy freezing drizzle possible for the Big country on Tuesday night. After our brief warmup today, another cold front makes its way across the area on Tuesday, continuing the roller coaster of temperature swings.
It seems likely that the last moisture will be wrung out over the ridges nonetheless, so a fairly efficient inch of snow may still be possible there. Arctic air will continue to flow over the region as 850 mb temps are projected to fall through the negative teens into the lower -20s.
221 PM MST Mon Dec 25 2017 A broad upper trough remain across much of the CONUS today with cold northwest flow across the northern Plains. Arctic high pressure sits across eastern MT through the Dakotas, with the frontal boundary just west and south of the CWA.
Very perisistent top-down saturation will have to occur over several hours for snow to be able to reach the surface without sublimating, but most hi- res models are indicating that by around 12z, the lower level atmosphere may finally saturate and allow for a few hours of very light snow.
/issued 1040 AM EST Mon Dec 25 2017/ Latest WPC surface analysis shows a cold front draped east to west over south central Florida. The dome of high pressure that has been ho-ho-holding in place over the area for the last week is finally beginning to lose its grip, which is allowing the front to slip southward. Along its journey, the temperature gradient will slacken and the boundary will become more diffuse as a ridge of high pressure builds into the southeast states and winds behind the boundary veer to a more northeasterly direction with time.
Broad 500 mb troughing remains over the area this forecast period with cold air entrenched and lake effect snow continuing as well. In the extended, GFS and ECMWF show a broad 500 mb trough over most of N. This trough remains over the area through Mon with the cold air remaining as well. The arrival of the arctic air mass will also result in periods of heavy freezing spray late tonight into mid week.
Thus will allow the highlights that run to 10 AM in the Blue mountain foothills and the Grande Ronde valley to expire at that time. Will also continue the highlights in the Blues and Wallowa county through the afternoon. Have added a mention of freezing fog in the Madras area where it is currently ongoing. Models have been consistent in the large scale pattern of an offshore ridge (though strength varies) but very inconsistent in details of disturbances moving through the northwesterly flow. The run-to-run continuity of the models is poor, as models flip flop from an amplified ridge pattern to a progressive flow pattern back to a ridge pattern.
338 PM CST Mon Dec 25 2017 Cold temperatures and uncertainty with regard to a couple of potential rounds of Wintry weather are the highlights of this forecast update. Current temperatures are in the low to middle 30s across the Midsouth. A very broad trough is currently in place across the entire United States, centered over the Mississippi River. A reinforcing Arctic cold front will move across the Midsouth tomorrow ushering in a bitterly cold Arctic Airmass.
With the deeper moisture just off the coast to the SW, its return tonight should be rather quick with the passage of the as- sociated warm front. This wet pattern is expected remain in place for much of the week as the warm front lingers near the coast and the isentropic upglide prevails over the area. The persistent BKN/OVC clouds along with a cold front on Weds will help keep temps most- ly below normal through this time frame. The building upper ridge out west should clear things out a bit by Fri. but some low POPS will be returning to the FA for the weekend ahead of the a strong cold front.
Stubborn high pressure will remain over the region for the next several days keeping the weather dry. Satellite imagery shows the apex of the ridge just west of the California coast with a persistent low pressure area about 500 miles west of the southern Baja coast.
The pattern of a high pressure ridge along the west coast and a broad low pressure trough over the eastern two-thirds of the United States will persist into the coming weekend.
1228 PM EST Mon Dec 25 2017 An area of low pressure was located over the eastern Great Lakes early this morning with another low centered off the coasts of New Jersey and Long Island. A cold front approaching from the northwest is expected to arrive on Tuesday evening.
1043 AM MST Mon Dec 25 2017 Winter Weather Advisories for the lower valley zones 2,5,8 and 14 have been canceled this morning.
A coastal trough over the western Gulf will move up the Middle Texas coast tonight into Tuesday. Temperatures tonight will remain in the upper 40s to mid 50s across the region as the low level stratus over the region remains in place. Tuesday will be warmer, with highs along the southern Coastal Bend in the lower 70s, and in the 60s further inland. Rain chances will continue into Tuesday night as another cold front approaches the region.
Aside from a few elevated, very weak echoes over the Straits well south of the Lower Keys, KBYX Doppler is void of precipitation echoes. A much weakened cold front sagging towards southern Florida will wash out near the Keys and surrounding waters tonight.
957 AM PST Mon Dec 25 2017 A ridge of high pressure will dominate along the West Coast through the end of the year.
It seems likely that the last moisture will be wrung out over the ridges nonetheless, so still a dusting of snow may fall in these locations. Arctic air will continue to flow over the region as 850 mb temps are projected to fall through the negative teens into the lower -20s.
345 PM CST Mon Dec 25 2017 This Evening-Tue Night: This afternoon a STRONG upper-deck cyclone covered most of Ontario that is producing a few jet maxima that are, meteorologically speaking, breaking the sound barrier. The strongest upper-deck jet that is screaming ~140kts around the base of the cyclone stretched in a NW-SE manner across the Lower Great Lakes while a second max ~130kts stretched from Southeast MO to the Western Ohio Valley. The light snow may spread into Central KS late tonight & Tue morning as the lower decks slowly moisten.
This is important as forecasted low temperatures are at or slightly below freezing for a majority of the area (exceptions are near the coast, FL Big Bend, and southern GA).
109 PM PST Mon Dec 25 2017 A switch to light onshore breezes will continue through Tuesday, with slightly cooler daytime temperatures.
Weak High pressure tonight will briefly clear skies out and bring another re-enforcing shot of cold air over the region. High pressure builds over the Central Plains with the upper trough dominance in full swing for the eastern CONUS. Expecting a sharply deepening upper level low to swing into the Great Lakes producing a rapidly intensifying clipper system, bringing the next chance for snow across the region. As significant will be the reinforcement of the cold air already in place as cold Canadian high pressure drops back into the Northern Plains from the prairie provinces. Any snow showers will exit this afternoon as weak high pressure takes control.
302 PM EST Mon Dec 25 2017 High pressure will dominate the Mid-Atlantic region through much of the week.
242 PM CST Mon Dec 25 2017 Dry and cold tonight into Tuesday as a cold ridge of high pressure slowly builds southeast.
1050 AM CST Mon Dec 25 2017 The morning sfc analysis indicates Arctic high pressure anchored over much of AR/Mid-South region SW into E TX this morning, which will gradually ease E of the area into the TN and Lower MS Valley late today. This cirrus shield should limit the extent of warming today especially over extreme NE TX/SE OK/SW AR closer to the sfc ridging in place, with more of a modest warmup expected farther S across Lower E TX/Ncntrl LA where more insolation will be observed.
135 PM CST Mon Dec 25 2017 Cold day continues with high pressure across the region.
259 PM CST Mon Dec 25 2017 A longer wave length upper level trough will remain nearly stationary and amplify across the Hudson Bay region of Canada, extending southward across the east central US.
136 PM PST Mon Dec 25 2017 A ridge of high pressure will dominate along the West Coast through the end of the year.
High pressure has regained control across NorCal and will remain through the week. Some high clouds spilling over the ridge are possible from time to time.
High pressure will prevail this week with only periods of high clouds spilling into the region. With a dry airmass locked in place, seasonable morning temperatures will be followed by afternoon highs warmer than average into the 70s. Other than that the forecast appears on track for continued warmer than normal temps and no chance for any precip for the next seven days as west-northwesterly flow and weak ridging will continue through the period. The SW Conus remains trapped in dampened ridging between deep longwave negative height anomalies covering the eastern Conus and a southern stream cutoff cyclone south of the Baja peninsula.
With clouds in place all day on Tuesday, expect a warmer start in the morning with lows in the 40s and highs in the 50s and 60s much areas.
1116 AM CST Mon Dec 25 2017 High pressure at the surface will slide south of the area today and slide into the Ohio Valley tonight. The low level flow will become southerly on the backside of the high but the gradient will be rather light much of the day. This will temper any warm up, with highs expected to be in the low to mid 30s.
/issued 1050 AM CST Mon Dec 25 2017/ The morning sfc analysis indicates Arctic high pressure anchored over much of AR/Mid-South region SW into E TX this morning, which will gradually ease E of the area into the TN and Lower MS Valley late today. This cirrus shield should limit the extent of warming today especially over extreme NE TX/SE OK/SW AR closer to the sfc ridging in place, with more of a modest warmup expected farther S across Lower E TX/Ncntrl LA where more insolation will be observed.
423 PM EST Mon Dec 25 2017 Synopsis and near term (through this evening): A weakening surface cold front continues to move farther south into South Florida late this afternoon. A ridge of high pressure builds into the southeast states and winds behind the boundary veer to a more northeasterly direction with time.
Aloft, broad cyclonic flow rules across most of the CONUS, as a deeper upper level low spins across south central Canada. In general, most locations will see minimum readings in the low to mid 20s.
SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday night): Coastal trough is hanging tough just east of Padre Island but it should begin to weaken tonight. The lower clouds will hang out and temperatures will change very little overnight and may even rise a few degrees in the Lower Valley if the front moves farther north earlier then the forecast dictates. For Tuesday as the front moves north temperatures to rise nicely but with decent low level moisture lingering and not enough dry air mixing through the low levels will keep temperatures slightly below the warm model consensus but still enough for highs to be 12-15 degrees warmer. Cool to mild and humid Tuesday night as the warm front and a weak low pressure area should be just north of the CWA.
Cloud tops have been cooling on IR satellite with a second piece of energy that is expected to keep the snow going at the high peaks in Routt and parts of Eagle Counties. Winter Weather Advisories for the lower valley zones 2,5,8 and 14 have been canceled this morning.
1234 PM EST Mon Dec 25 2017 Cold high pressure will prevail this afternoon and persist through the mid-week period.
214 PM EST Mon Dec 25 2017 An area of low pressure was located over the eastern Great Lakes early this morning with another low centered off the coasts of New Jersey and Long Island. A cold front approaching from the northwest is expected to arrive on Tuesday evening.
Winds will slowly decrease through the day but will continue to advect in cooler air. Chattanooga Airport, TN 37 28 45 28 / 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 34 25 41 26 / 0 10 10 0 Oak Ridge, TN 34 26 41 25 / 0 10 10 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 30 21 37 23 / 10 10 10 10.
137 PM EST Mon Dec 25 2017 Cold high pressure will build into NC from the west today, then settle over the area tonight and Tuesday. As the high builds in and the pressure gradient over the area decreases, so will the winds.
111 PM MST Mon Dec 25 2017 High pressure will prevail this week with only periods of high clouds spilling into the region. With a dry airmass locked in place, seasonable morning temperatures will be followed by afternoon highs warmer than average into the 70s. Other than that the forecast appears on track for continued warmer than normal temps and no chance for any precip for the next seven days as west-northwesterly flow and weak ridging will continue through the period. The SW Conus remains trapped in dampened ridging between deep longwave negative height anomalies covering the eastern Conus and a southern stream cutoff cyclone south of the Baja peninsula.
409 PM EST Mon Dec 25 2017 Low pressure moving through the Canadian Maritimes will continue to deepen as high pressure builds from the west. The high will dominate from mid to late week. Can't rule out a gust up to 40 mph in the higher inland elevations and in NYC/immediate coastal sections, otherwise the downward trend that started early this afternoon will continue into tonight. Dry but cold weather will prevail with high pressure building from the west. The 12z EC is a bit more amplified with the upper trough leading to intensifying low pres tracking just S and E of the 40N 70W benchmark Sat eve which is slightly earlier and farther S as compared to its 25/00Z run. VFR as high pressure slowly builds from the west.
I went a tad cooler for highs Tuesday with fresh snow on snow and plenty of sky cover for most of the day, expecting highs near 10 for most of the area. MVFR ceilings are anticipated along with IFR visibilities at least for this afternoon, although it is a tough call on when enough snow will sublimate before reaching the ground, which will cause the lower visibility. Longest sub-freezing stretch in the Tri Cities in nearly 4 years?.
356 PM EST Mon Dec 25 2017 High pressure will prevail through Tuesday. Weak low pressure may develop offshore mid week as strong high pressure builds from the north.
1004 AM MST Mon Dec 25 2017 Winter Weather Advisories for the lower valley zones 2,5,8 and 14 have been canceled this morning.
300 PM EST Mon Dec 25 2017 High pressure will dominate the Mid-Atlantic region through much of the week.
239 PM EST Mon Dec 25 2017 Current surface analysis reveals a 1036mb high over western TN/MS influencing much of the weather over the lower Ohio Valley.
Temps will be cold at lower elevations where snowfall and light winds will result in inversion conditions, while the higher elevations will be relatively warm in the wake of yday's warm front (still below freezing, but not as cold as one would typically expect). Temperatures in the lower 20s with the snow has resulted in very slick roads.
Cold high pressure will continue to build into the area tonight with overnight lows falling into the upper teens and 20s.
The cold front producing light precipitation and MVFR/IFR conditions will slowly push east through the day. A stronger cold front is possible late in the week. Model sounding are still showing a slight chance for freezing rain east of the Cascades Tuesday night.
Another cold front moves into PVW and LBB after midnight, and a few more hours after that for Childress. /issued 328 AM CST Mon Dec 25 2017/ Merry Christmas! The passage of a series of upper level lows over the Great Lakes/North East and the building of a large amplitude ridge out West will keep northwest flow aloft over the region for the foreseeable future. These warmer temps will be short lived and the first cold air intrusion occurs.
Breezy wind speeds today followed by a wind shift tonight as a cold front passes.
1111 AM CST Mon Dec 25 2017 The main concern for the upcoming forecast will be the colder conditions for the upcoming week, and the transition comes courtesy of a cold front working through the area toward 10z, generally along a Tracy-Sioux Falls-Pickstown line. Tuesday will be spent under the core of the arctic ridge, and other than a bit better wind due to mixing toward southwest MN and parts of northwest IA, will be a fairly light wind day overall. The ridge lingers enough into Tuesday night to allow for a free-fall in temps especially across northwest Iowa in the evening, and perhaps only a hint of recovery with winds turning light southerly late.
Broad troughing will hang around across most locations east of the Rockies, while ridging remains locked in the across the Desert Southwest.
This boundary, coupled with a slow moving east-west oriented cold front will bring widespread showers and thunderstorms across the area this afternoon and into the evening, with some storms becoming severe.
A warm front will continue to move north across the region this evening and move north of our area tonight as low pressure approaches from the west. Because of the increasing cloud cover and being located south of the warm front, expect low temperatures to be a degree or two above guidance. Chattanooga Airport, TN 72 81 71 83 / 80 80 70 60 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 70 79 68 81 / 80 80 60 40 Oak Ridge, TN 70 79 69 81 / 90 80 60 40 Tri Cities Airport, TN 68 76 66 78 / 80 80 60 30.
A cold front bringing a northerly wind shift is expected to continue moving through the area this afternoon with chances of showers and thunderstorms increasing. /issued 257 AM CDT Sun Aug 6 2017/ Today, in advance of a cold front surface based destabilization will result in LI's to around -5 to -6 across the PB with CAPES around 1500 J/KG. NW flow is weak and an identifiable shrtwv trof is lacking. Wed-Sat will be down days wrt convective potential as upper ridging increases and high temps warm back to above normal Thur-Sat.
101 PM EDT Sun Aug 6 2017 An area of low pressure will track northeast across the Ohio Valley Monday.
1255 PM CDT Sun Aug 6 2017 Low pressure over the southeast Plains will move across southern Missouri today. Low level moisture convergence will continue over the area ahead of the low today.
Typical summertime pattern across the forecast area as a strong U/L ridge persists over the central Atlantic extending across the Florida peninsula and Gulf of Mexico. At the surface, high pressure will hold over the western Atlantic with the ridge axis across north Florida and the northern Gulf of Mexico.
For most of the area, isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms should spread inland from the coast as the low-level inversion breaks.
135 PM EDT Sun Aug 6 2017 A quasi-stationary cold front across southern NC will return north was a warm front this afternoon.
349 PM MDT Sun Aug 6 2017 A closed low pressure system currently sits over northern California this Sunday afternoon. Ahead of this system, weak ridging is evident in the 500mb pattern over central Utah.
650 PM EDT Sun Aug 6 2017 High pressure slowly shifts to our south and east tonight into Monday.
1221 PM PDT Sun Aug 6 2017 Low pressure stalled over northern California will produce thunderstorms with heavy rainfall possible through midweek.