Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
/ISSUED 201 PM CST Fri Mar 6 2015/ Even though se winds have returned the surface anticyclone is still showing a presence across TX. By Sat evening an initial jet max and associated shrtwv trof will approach and move into the Trans Pecos region starting Sat evening. Still main mid level trof axis remains to the w thru the day on Sunday. Trof axis will move e early Mon AM, and cold front will follow in its wake, so colder Mon, especially in the n-ne if precip is falling there. However there will be some additional energy that arrives into the back side of the trof axis across NM and re-carves the trof somewhat. This weak trof in the mid levels will then persist into the remainder of the work week, but dry.
THE SFC WIND WILL TAKE ON A MORE NORTHERLY COMPONENT AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL FILTER IN ALOFT. LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL BACK TO AROUND THE FREEZING MARK DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WITH BROAD TROUGHING CONTINUING OVER THE GREAT LAKES/NERN CONUS AREAS. WITH A RIDGE AXIS AFFECTING THE WEST COAST.
WITH AN UPPER RIDGE CENTERED ALONG THE WEST COAST AND AN UPPER LOW OVER NRN BAJA. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL DROP DOWN INTO UTAH FROM THE NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY WHILE A SURFACE COLD FRONT SINKS SOUTH THROUGH ERN CO. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE SIMILAR TO A FEW DEGREES COOLER ON SUNDAY COMPARED TO TODAY.
CURRENTLY WE REMAIN UNDER A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CENTERED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL KEEP WINDS CALM OR VERY LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH WILL KEEP OUR REGION DRY WITH A WARMING TREND INTO EARLY SUNDAY. MODELS SHOW THE HIGH MOVING EAST LATE IN THE WEEKEND. ON SUNDAY, EXPECTING CONTINUED SNOW COVER AND INCREASING CLOUDS, TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO SATURDAY, OR JUST A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT, SO ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD JUST BE RAIN. A SLOW MOVING TROF FORECAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY WILL BECOME SPLIT FROM THE MAIN BRANCH ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES BY MID WEEK.
AN UPSTREAM TROUGH WILL BRING INCREASING SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS LATE SATURDAY. WE STILL EXPECT FREEZING TEMPERATURES IN THE HILL COUNTRY AND ADJACENT I-35 CORRIDOR NORTH OF SAN MARCOS.
1210 AM CST SAT MAR 7 2015 THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN AREA OF LOW CLOUDS IN ASSOCIATION WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT AND SHORT WAVE ALOFT ACROSS NORTHERN AND MOST OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW IMPROVEMENT MUCH EARLIER.
An upper level trough embedded within the northern branch of the jet stream will dig southeast across the upper Midwest into the Great Lakes States. An upper level trough will embedded within the southern branch of the upper level jet will slowly drift east across northwest Mexico and AZ. Low-level CAA across the northern plains will cause a weak cold front to push southward across the CWA this afternoon.
1118 PM EST FRI MAR 6 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATER SATURDAY THEN CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT.
WE HAVE A LARGE SCALE HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE NEAR THE WEST COAST WITH A WEAK LOW DIRTYING UP THE BASE OF THE RIDGE NEAR NORTHERN BAJA. THIS LOW WILL SLOWLY LIFT ACROSS ARIZONA OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. AS THE LOW PUSHES IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST TODAY WE SHOULD CREEP UP TO THE. AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE JUST UPSTREAM WITH SOME DEEP BUT RELATIVELY WEEK TROUGHINESS IMMEDIATELY DOWNSTREAM.
308 AM EST SAT MAR 7 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TODAY. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE LOW. COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW EARLY TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK AND PROVIDE MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. AHEAD OF THE LOW A WARM FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION FOR TODAY FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT EARLY TONIGHT. THE MAV IS ALSO 6-7 DEGREES WARMER AS WELL. WITH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION WILL SIDE TOWARD THE WARMER MAV NUMBERS.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE DEEP SOUTH AND LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL PRODUCE A MODERATE SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS INDIANA TODAY WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE MID 40S AS WARMER AIR MOVES INTO OUR REGION. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR REGION LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. OTHERWISE A GRADUAL MODERATION OF TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL THIS WEEK AS UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL AND AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS EAST TOWARDS THE MISSISSIPPI BY MID WEEK.
A DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CAN BE SEEN JUST SOUTH OF CALIFORNIA.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE MID- ATLANTIC REGION. TEMPS HAVE ROCKETED INTO THE 50S IN THE HIGHLAND VALLEYS. TEMPS WILL FALL BELOW FREEZING AFTER MIDNIGHT. LEADING TO A THREAT OF FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THOSE AREAS IF IT IS NOT COLD ENOUGH FOR ICE CRYSTAL FORMATION. AND IN FACT SOME COMMUNITIES FURTHER EAST WILL NOT EVEN DROP BELOW FREEZING TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN AGAIN ON SUNDAY. ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. AND I GENERALLY TOOK A BLEND WHILE LEANING WARMER FROM DC SOUTH AND EAST.
322 PM CST SAT MAR 7 2015 AS A CLOSED LOW MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN US/NW MEXICO AND WEAKENS PRECIPITATION WILL COME IN TWO WAVES. THIS INITIAL AREA OF LIFT WILL COME OUT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH BUT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE VERY STRONG. THE LOW LEVELS WILL STILL BE SLOW TO MOISTEN.
242 PM EST SAT MAR 7 2015 A DRY PRESSURE RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE FORECAST AREA/S WEATHER THROUGH SUNDAY. 29 INCHES AND SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH PASSING UPPER TROUGH SHOULD PROVIDE SUNNY SKIES THROUGH THE DAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION TONIGHT WITH REASONABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING EXPECTED THROUGH A DRY AIRMASS. LOWS SHOULD BE A BIT WARMER TONIGHT THAN THIS MORNING DUE TO THE LOW LEVEL JET AND GENERAL MODIFICATION OF THE AIRMASS UNDER A FULL DAY OF SUNSHINE. THE DRY RIDGE WILL BEGIN SHIFTING EASTWARD AND OFF THE CAROLINA COAST SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. EXPECT HIGH CLOUDS TO INCREASE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE MAIN MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. EXPECT HIGHS AROUND 70 WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 40S.
WHILE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND A COOLER NLY DRAINAGE FLOW OVER OUR GA ZONES AND THE SUWANNEE RIVER VALLEY WILL ENABLE TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE MID 30S WITH WIDESPREAD FROST EXPECTED BY SUNRISE. LOCALLY THE INCREASE IN ATLANTIC MOISTURE AND WARMER LOW TEMPS IN THE 50S SUPPORT AN INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR LATE NIGHT FOG INLAND AND PERHAPS A FEW COASTAL SHOWERS SKIRTING THE COAST.
THE AIR MASS HAS WARMED BY A DEGREE OR TWO SINCE YESTERDAY AND THUS HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO A BIT WARMER THAN YESTERDAY.
1234 PM EST SAT MAR 7 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH TODAY THEN CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY.
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL DOMINATE ACROSS THE WEST. WITH THE RIDGE AXIS CENTERED NEAR THE WEST COAST.
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AS A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS.
SUNNY AND WARM AFTERNOONS TODAY INTO SUNDAY WITH CLEAR AND COOL NIGHTS UNDER STRONG HIGH PRESSURE.
131 PM EST SAT MAR 7 2015 A WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM TRACKS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT AND PUSHES IT'S WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION EARLY SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE.
411 PM EST SAT MAR 7 2015 A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL WASH OUT OVER THE REGION TONIGHT.
UPDATE: Temps are warming quickly thus far today thanks to tons of sun and good mixing within the low level thermal ridge. A weak trough axis is forecast to move into MO/IL later today but this will have little influence on high temperatures, which will rebound nicely into the 50s and 60s across most of the area due to favorable westerly flow during most of the day. Temperatures should be warmest across a corridor extending from central MO through east central MO beneath the thermal ridge axis aloft and in the absence of appreciable snow cover at the surface.
WITH MORE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS, SUNDAY MAY BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY ACROSS THE REGION. AS A DESERT SOUTHWEST CLOSED H5 LOW OPENS INTO A TROUGH AND MOVES INTO TX, AN UPPER HIGH WILL STRENGTHEN IN RESPONSE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND CARRIBEAN.
1205 PM EST SAT MAR 7 2015 COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION TODAY.
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY BIG PICTURE IMAGERY HAS BASIC LW TROF ACROSS MOST OF THE CONUS EXCEPT FOR THE W CST WHERE A BLOCKING HIGH OVR LOW SITUATION EXISTS. LITTLE ACCUMULATION EXPECTED EVEN OVR THE HIGHER PEAKS. ABOUT THE MOST THAT CAN BE SAID ABOUT WX CHANGES FOR SUNDAY WILL BE A SLIGHTLY COOLER ATMOSPHERE WITH SFC TEMPS POSSIBLY A DEGREE OR TWO LOWER THAN TODAY. SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY WARMER HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE WESTERN U.
COLD FRONT IS WORKING THROUGH THE AREA NOW. AS WELL AS A DRIER AIR MASS SHOULD ENABLE TEMPERATURES TO DROP OFF TO THE LOWER TO MID 20S OUTSIDE OF CHICAGO TONIGHT. CLOUDS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MASS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN TODAY ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY EVENING/NIGHT AND THEN WASHOUT.
355 PM CST Sat Mar 7 2015 (Tonight and Sunday) An upper level low continues to spin over the northern Baja Peninsula this afternoon. This low will begin to move east across northern Mexico tonight through tomorrow. However, low level southerly flow will increase as the upper level low approaches, increasing moisture from the surface through 750/800mb. On that note, highs tomorrow may be a couple/few degrees cooler than today with more cloud cover and possible showers across the area.
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE SLIDING EAST TODAY, OPENING UP THE REGION FOR DEEP MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE NEXT SURFACE SYSTEM.
945 AM PST SAT MAR 7 2015 HIGH PRESSURE AND OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BRING WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES INTO THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND OFFSHORE FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE 80S TODAY AT MOST LOWER ELEVATION LOCATIONS EXCEPT FOR THOSE RIGHT AT THE BEACH.
226 PM EST SAT MAR 7 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY.
ALONG THE BROAD SWRLY SUBTROPICAL JET AHEAD OF THE CLOSED LOW OFF THE NW COAST OF BAJA. WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS LIKELY TO PERSIST ACROSS E TX/WRN LA ONCE THE LOW AC SHIELD ARRIVES. AS SFC RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT.
200 PM PST SAT MAR 7 2015 HIGH PRESSURE AND OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BRING WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES INTO THE WEEKEND.
SWLY FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL BRING INCREASING MIDLEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. WHILE VORT LOBES RACING AROUND THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE TROUGH SWEEP THROUGH TEXAS INTO TOMORROW. WHILE THE LOWER AND DENSER CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE REGION WILL HOLD BACK TEMPERATURES TOMORROW. AS THE TROUGH MOVES INTO NORTHERN MEXICO SUNDAY NIGHT.
1228 PM EST SAT MAR 7 2015 AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT WILL SHUNT HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN U. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION FOR SUNDAY. WHICH KEEP SOME OF THE WARMER AIR (LOWER 40S) CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA. THUS IT CONTINUES TO DEVELOP PCPN TODAY AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT.
449 PM EST SAT MAR 7 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT SOUTH OF THE COMMONWEALTH TODAY. LOOKS LIKE SOME SNOW SHOWERS WILL MAKE IT INTO THE LOWER SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY. THE UPPER TROF SHOULD SWING THROUGH THE EASTERN GR LAKES TONIGHT AND TRACK NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO BY 06Z. TONIGHT'S TEMPS WILL AVERAGE 10 TO PERHAPS AS MUCH AS 30 DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT'S FRIGID LOWS. HOWEVER THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH WILL ONLY GRADUALLY LIFT AND PULL EAST OF THE AREA DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE DAY. BUT HIGHS OVERALL WILL STILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S. UPPER LOW NOW OVER SRN CALIF IS FORECAST TO MOVE EVER-SO-SLOWLY EAST INTO THE CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS BY MID WEEK.
Current forecast of a weak cold front moving through the zones looks on track. The cold front is just north of Cut Bank and current timing shows a wind shift at Great Falls around 1-2 pm.
106 PM EST SAT MAR 7 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT SOUTH OF THE COMMONWEALTH TODAY. THE UPPER TROF SHOULD SWING THROUGH THE EASTERN GR LAKES TONIGHT AND TRACK NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO BY 06Z. TONIGHT'S TEMPS WILL AVERAGE 10 TO PERHAPS AS MUCH AS 30 DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT'S FRIGID LOWS. HOWEVER THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH WILL ONLY GRADUALLY LIFT AND PULL EAST OF THE AREA DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE DAY. BUT HIGHS OVERALL WILL STILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S.
300 PM EST SAT MAR 7 2015 WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
A weak cold front is moving southward through northern MO so the upward assault on temperatures with the passage of the front will slow considerably, but still be pleasantly warm in its wake. Satellite imagery this morning shows an amplified pattern across the Nation, with a West Coast ridge and eastern CONUS trough dominating. This has left our section of the country under a northwest flow, though it will be a warm northwest flow for us as the activity in the northern stream helps keep some semblance of a thermal ridge in place across the Central Plains over the next 7 days. However, the trough will do more by shifting the thermal ridge than by actually bringing cool air with it.
Southerly breezes commenced overnight as high pressure shifted southeast of the Ozarks. Clouds will spread over the region tonight helping to keep temperatures a little warmer than this mornings lows. This cloud cover may actually cause Sunday's highs to be slightly cooler, ranging from the middle 50s to the lower 60s. Mean upper level ridging will build across the nation's mid section, forcing the main belt of westerlies well to the north of the Ozarks.
353 PM EST SAT MAR 7 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT SOUTH OF THE COMMONWEALTH TODAY. THE UPPER TROF SHOULD SWING THROUGH THE EASTERN GR LAKES TONIGHT AND TRACK NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO BY 06Z. TONIGHT'S TEMPS WILL AVERAGE 10 TO PERHAPS AS MUCH AS 30 DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT'S FRIGID LOWS. HOWEVER THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH WILL ONLY GRADUALLY LIFT AND PULL EAST OF THE AREA DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE DAY. BUT HIGHS OVERALL WILL STILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S. UPPER LOW NOW OVER SRN CALIF IS FORECAST TO MOVE EVER-SO-SLOWLY EAST INTO THE CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS BY MID WEEK.
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL HOLD OFF NEARLY ALL CLOUDS UNTIL TONIGHT. /ISSUED 352 AM CST SAT MAR 7 2015/ UPPER LEVEL SPLIT FLOW CONTINUED OVER THE CONUS EARLY THIS MORNING WITH THE POLAR JET CONFINED TO THE NORTH/NORTHEASTERN PART OF THE CONUS AND A NEARLY STATIONARY UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN BAJA. SOUTHERLY WINDS TODAY WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT MOISTURE BACK INTO THE CWA ALONG WITH HIGH CLOUDS SPREADING INTO THE REGION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER LOW BEGINNING TO LIFT OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST. MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WHICH WILL HELP TO KEEP TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
1138 AM CST SAT MAR 7 2015 SHRTWV TROF CURRENTLY /CURRENTLY OVER ERN SD PER EARLY MRNG WV IMAGERY/ WILL CONT TO TRACK SEWD THROUGH THE MRNG.
1046 AM CST Sat Mar 7 2015 Satellite imagery this morning shows an amplified pattern across the Nation, with a West Coast ridge and eastern CONUS trough dominating. This has left our section of the country under a northwest flow, though it will be a warm northwest flow for us as the activity in the northern stream helps keep some semblance of a thermal ridge in place across the Central Plains over the next 7 days. However, the trough will do more by shifting the thermal ridge than by actually bringing cool air with it.
TOMORROW THE NICE WEATHER CONTINUES AS WE WILL HAVE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES PRESENT FOR MOST OF THE DAY WITH EVEN WARMER TEMPS.
LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S. WITH SOME BACKING OF SFC FLOW/RECOVER OF THERMAL FIELD BY AFTN AND LACK OF STRATUS HAVE LARGELY DISCARDED COLD NAM MOS TEMPS IN FAVOR OF WARMER/LATEST ECE.
1020 AM CST SAT MAR 7 2015 SURFACE RIDGING CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH LIGHT WINDS AND TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S AS OF 10 AM. THESE DISTURBANCES COMBINED W/ FAVORABLE JET PATTERN AND AN INFLUX OF GULF MOISTURE OVER A DEVELOPING COASTAL TROF WILL LEAD TO A PROLONGED PERIOD OF RAIN (POSSIBLY W/ A COUPLE ELEVATED STORMS) THRU TUE MORNING.
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF A FEW FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING AS A FEW WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE THROUGH. THE LOW CHC OF PCPN WILL REMAIN TONIGHT AND INTO SUN. WE SHOULD DRY OUT AND SEE A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE ON MON AS WE WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF RIDGING IN BETWEEN A SYSTEM TO OUR NW AND ANOTHER TO OUR SW.
THEN, ON THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF THIS REX BLOCK, THE UPPER LOW HAS INDUCED A SUBTROPICAL JET ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. 77 FOR TONIGHT, QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SFC RIDGING AND VERY DRY SUBSIDENT PROFILE. AFTER DECOUPLING OCCURS OVERNIGHT, TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUICK TO DROP TO OR SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING BY MORNING AS DEWPOINTS RECOVER FROM THEIR LOWS EARLIER IN THE DAY. THE HIGH RES MODELS ARE SHOWING A GENERAL SLOWER SATURATION OF THE MID-LEVELS ON SUNDAY EVENING AND MADE SOME SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POPS/WX FOR THAT TIME FRAME.
1127 AM CST SAT MAR 7 2015 HIGH PRESSURE KEEPING AREA VFR SKC FOR THE MOMENT. ALONG THE BROAD SWRLY SUBTROPICAL JET AHEAD OF THE CLOSED LOW OFF THE NW COAST OF BAJA. WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS LIKELY TO PERSIST ACROSS E TX/WRN LA ONCE THE LOW AC SHIELD ARRIVES. AS SFC RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT.
HIGHS TODAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY WITH WIDESPREAD 50S ACROSS THE PLAINS. THE ONLY IMPACT ON THE SENSIBLE WEATHER ACROSS THE CWA WILL BE A COLD FRONT THAT WILL PASS OVER AREAS TO THE EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUN MORNING.
108 PM EST SAT MAR 7 2015 A DRY PRESSURE RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE FORECAST AREA/S WEATHER THROUGH SUNDAY. 29 INCHES AND SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH PASSING UPPER TROUGH SHOULD PROVIDE SUNNY SKIES THROUGH THE DAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION TONIGHT WITH REASONABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING EXPECTED THROUGH A DRY AIRMASS. LOWS SHOULD BE A BIT WARMER TONIGHT THAN THIS MORNING DUE TO THE LOW LEVEL JET AND GENERAL MODIFICATION OF THE AIRMASS UNDER A FULL DAY OF SUNSHINE. THE DRY RIDGE SHIFTING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST SHOULD CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. EXPECT MAINLY AN INCREASE IN UPPER- LEVEL CLOUDINESS WELL AHEAD OF THE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE NATION. EXPECT HIGHS AROUND 70 WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 40S. HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRY AIRMASS WILL RESIDE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.
LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL REMAIN LACKING FOR MOST OF THE WEEK AS DEEP RIDGING GOVERNS THE WEATHER PATTERN.
LIGHT WINDS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES HAVE ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO DROP BELOW FREEZING FOR A MAJORITY OF THE AREA NORTH OF I-10. ENOUGH SUNSHINE TODAY BEFORE THICKER HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARRIVE TO ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE INTO THE LOWER 60S. UPPER LEVEL LOW WEST OF BAJA WILL OPEN UP AND MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD DURING THE WEEK.
A weak trough axis is forecast to move into MO/IL later today but this will have little influence on high temperatures, which will rebound nicely into the 50s and 60s across most of the area due to favorable westerly flow during most of the day. Temperatures should be warmest across a corridor extending from central MO through east central MO beneath the thermal ridge axis aloft and in the absence of appreciable snow cover at the surface.
HOWEVER CENTRAL OREGON MAY BE A BIT WARMER. OVERNIGHT LOWS NEAR FREEZING AGAIN IN THE VALLEYS. AND LOWS IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S.
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER BAJA IS EXPECTED TO OPEN. UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWEST OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH.
High pressure will be the main story throughout the next several days, making for a less-than-exciting weather pattern for the Northern Rockies. That being said, the region is set to experience several days of pleasant, spring-like conditions as a result of persistent high pressure.
AS LOW-LEVEL RIDGE SETTLES ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF MS/AL/GA. HIGHS SHOULD WARM INTO THE LOW/MID 50S. STAYED CLOSE TO BUT ON THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE. ONE MORE NIGHT THIS FORECAST STRETCH WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING WILL START A NEW WEEK. LOW TEMPERATURES AFTERWARD SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING. AT LEAST WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES. MODEL UPGLIDE IN THE 295K RANGE LOOKS PRETTY DECENT MON/TUE THUS THE HIGHER RAIN CHANCES. GIVEN THE PATH OF THE SURFACE CYCLONE AND A GENERALLY SE FLOW WITH DEEPER MOISTURE.
1255 PM EST SAT MAR 7 2015 HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES.
/ISSUED 328 AM EST SAT MAR 7 2015/ QUIET WEATHER FOR THE SHORT TERM AS HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST.
MID LEVEL SPLIT FLOW PATTERN CONTINUES TO DOMINATE WITH NW FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN CONUS AND TROFFINESS OVER THE EAST COAST. WILL SHIFT EAST TONIGHT BUT RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS THE AREA. BAJA LOW LOOKS TO OPEN UP AND BEGIN MOVING EAST IN RESPONSE TO BULDING RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO DIG SOUTH OVER MEXICO AS MID LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS FIRMLY ANCHORED OFF THE EAST FL COAST.
THE CENTER OF THE COLD HIGH PRESSURE HAD MOVED JUST SOUTH OF THE MIDSOUTH WITH A LIGHT SOUTHWEST WIND ACROSS NORTHEAST AR INTO WEST TN. TEMPERATURES ALTHOUGH COLD WERE QUITE A BIT WARMER THAN THIS TIME LAST NIGHT IN MOST LOCATIONS WITH UPPER TEENS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST TN AND ALONG THE TN RIVER TO THE 20S ELSEWHERE. WARMER TEMPERATURES AND NO WINTRY PRECIPITATION ARE THE HIGHLIGHTS OF THE FORECAST. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE SOME TODAY ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH PUSHING WARMER AIR INTO THE REGION UNDER NEAR FULL SUNSHINE. HIGHS TODAY WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 50S EXCEPT WHERE THE SNOW COVER WAS THE DEEPEST ONLY LOWER AND MIDDLE 40S WILL BE REACHED. INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS WILL OCCUR TONIGHT BUT HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL WITH NO PRECIPITATION. THE HIGHEST POPS WILL BE FROM EAST CENTRAL AR INTO NORTHWEST MS.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE DHT AND GUY TAF SITES SUNDAY MORNING AND IT WILL APPROACH THE AMA TAF SITE BY THE END OF THIS FORECAST. THE NORTHERN STREAM/BROAD TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE NORTH. AND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER BAJA AND SOUTHERN STREAM WILL INCREASE HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER BAJA WILL BEGIN MOVING EASTWARD AND BECOME MORE OF AN OPEN TROUGH.
Current forecast of a weak cold front moving through the zones looks on track. The cold front is just north of Cut Bank and current timing shows a wind shift at Great Falls around 1-2 pm. Surface winds become NW this afternoon as the system moves through then decrease this evening as weak high pressure builds in from the north.
AS LOW-LEVEL RIDGE SETTLES ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF MS/AL/GA.
423 PM EST SAT MAR 7 2015 HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES.
AS THIS TROUGH BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS MON AND TUE. THE ECMWF/GFS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A DEVELOPING TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. HOWEVER THE HIGHER PROBABILITIES FOR PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS TROUGH MAY EDGE A BIT FURTHER SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE WEAKENING/DISSIPATING. LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED NORTH OF THIS TROUGH AXIS THIS AFTERNOON.
With hardly a cloud in the sky, temps are considerably milder than yesterday, although still cooler than seasonal levels.
351 PM CST Sat Mar 7 2015 Overall pattern will be marked by northwest flow aloft from the Canadian Rockies through the Great Lakes with an upper trough evolving over the Southern Plains. Chewed through the low-level inversion and then began mixing down from the 800mb level.