Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
A dry forecast is expected into the weekend with temperatures returning to the low 80s. WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING: Overnight, a deep mid level trough is making its way toward our area. Moisture will also continue streaming into the area and showers and thunderstorms are expected to ignite along the cold front through mid day. As far as temperatures go, expect to be a bit cooler with highs in the upper 60s to low 70s today.
203 AM CDT Wed Apr 28 2021 High pressure at the surface and aloft is situated east of Middle Tennessee this morning, and strong return flow at the surface will continue to advect moisture into the region and keep temperatures unseasonably warm in spite of increased cloudiness. The next active weather system is coming together over the Great Plains and Upper Midwest, so more widespread activity won't occur over Middle Tennessee until Thursday as the cold front edges its way into the local area.
Incoming cold front approaches as we near daybreak Thursday and will work through during the morning hours.
Today Through Thursday Night A large upper ridge is over the east coast this morning with an upper low over the desert southwest. This upper ridge will be suppressed to the southeast as another upper trough moves southeast from the northern Plains Thursday. The southwest low will become cutoff from the main flow and blocked by the upper ridge in the Gulf of Mexico, keeping it in west Texas through Thursday night. A cold front will move into northwest Arkansas tonight continuing the rain chances through Thursday. Highs today will be in the mid 70s to mid 80s and in the lower 70s to lower 80s Thursday.
Diegan Chattanooga Airport, TN 85 63 84 60 74 / 10 10 30 80 40 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 83 63 82 58 71 / 10 10 30 80 40 Oak Ridge, TN 83 62 82 57 70 / 10 10 40 80 40 Tri Cities Airport, TN 81 59 81 55 68 / 10 10 30 80 50.
Temperatures will remain quite warm for late April with highs in the low to mid 80s. Temperatures will turn cooler behind the front with highs ranging from the mid 70s to mid 80s.
This area of convection is expected to gradually shift to the northeast this morning as the low-level jet weakens and shifts slightly to the east.
A 500mb closed low centered over southern Arizona will move east along the U. /Mexico border during the day, and the associated upper level trough axis to the north extending across the CONUS will move east out of Nebraska. Temperatures will range from the low 60s in the Panhandle and northern Nebraska, and in the upper 50s in southwest and central Nebraska. As the upper level trough exits to the east, an upper level ridge will begin to enter the northern and central Great Plains. At the surface, high pressure will build in from the west. High pressure will continue to build over the region as the upper level ridge continues to take hold.
5 to 4 inches, with the higher amounts expected to occur along and south of the Interstate 44 corridor.
235 AM CDT Wed Apr 28 2021 (Issued 235 AM CDT Wed Apr 28 2021) Today through Thursday: Cooler airmass will be in place today with surface front to our south with low pressure moving along it. A more pronounced mid level trough evolves for Thursday. However there will still be a secondary front/trough that is proggd to kick off some shra so will have some pops for this.
Weak frontal zone in assocn/w split flow aloft bookended by sw troughs invof se AZ and sw NU will settle into nrn zones late morning before stalling invof cntrl IN tonight. MCV through wrn WI may provide enough of an influence within slowly destabilizing airmass w/swd extent to conditionally initiate storms by mid aftn mainly south of US30 in relation to newd advecting yet lagging low level theta-e ridge. Vigorous height amplification aloft develops through New England Fri as broad sfc ridging builds across the lakes.
Issues also arise on where surface boundaries will set up and possibly waver with time before the main push of energy brings a cold front through the region during the day on Thursday. The more phased GFS/GEFS would deliver much more in the way of precip along and out ahead of the sfc cold front Wed into Thu.
/NF/ Southwesterly flow will persist overnight beneath strengthening upper ridging.
Dry and warm weather will prevail across the region through the short term period, as a developing ridge slowly slides eastward.
This fog may become a bit more widespread in the next few hours as the high clouds move out, but it's not expected to last long into the morning. Highs today should finally manage to make it into the low 60s with northwestern Minnesota seeing mid to upper 60s thanks to clearing skies. Highs will be a bit warmer than today with mid 60s more widespread, but unfortunately CAA behind the aforementioned front will prevent temperatures from being as warm as one might expect under sunny skies. Weak ridging builds in for the end of the week and brings dry weather and warming temperatures into the weekend.
/issued 845 PM CDT Tue Apr 27 2021/ Broad southwesterly flow aloft continues over the Mid-South downstream of a deep, positively tilted trough anchored over the Desert Southwest. A quasi-stationary front extends from the Great Lakes into KS, with a cold front and dryline extending south across west TX. We'll remain entrenched within the warm sector of this cyclone for the next few days with the potential for showers and thunderstorms increasing with time. /issued 308 PM CDT Tue Apr 27 2021/ As the night progresses, the high pressure system that gave us pleasant weather over the last few days will shift further off the East Coast. Showers and thunderstorms are possible mainly north of I-40 through tomorrow before the entire area will see showers and thunderstorms for Thursday as a cold front moves through the Mid-South.
346 AM CDT Wed Apr 28 2021 Early this morning, a closed low remained across the southwest CONUS with southwest flow over the central and southern Plains. An attendant cold front was draped across the CWA along a line from Hiawatha to Manhattan to Abilene. To the south, conditions have stayed rather warm and moist overnight with temperature readings in the low to mid 60s and dewpoints in the low 60s. The cold front slowly sags southeast through the day, finally clearing the forecast area late tonight as the upper low becomes cut- off over the southern New Mexico. Skies clear Thursday morning leading to a fairly nice spring day with highs in the low 70s.
The low boundary layer moisture content and open-wave nature of the mid-level trough will make it difficult for more widespread precipitation to develop, with the best chances for showers kept to the north- central where more ideal mid-level cooling and convergence overlap. The strengthening and shifting surface winds as well as dry boundary layer moisture will create near critical fire weather conditions in the afternoon, mostly south of the Highway 2 corridor. High pressure settles in behind the front tonight.
430 AM CDT Wed Apr 28 2021 Several rounds of showers and thunderstorms will continue through tonight, before ending from northwest to southeast late tonight and Thursday as a cold front pushes through the area.
1052 AM EDT Wed Apr 28 2021 Mean layer ridging dominates the Florida Keys this morning. Water vapor imagery highlights a sharp, long wave ridge axis extending from Central America to the northeastern United States. Temperatures are in the lower 80s with dewpoints near or just below 70.
An upper ridge will strengthen over the area Thursday.
SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday): Mid level trough digs into northern Mexico as warm southwesterly flow aloft continues across the CWA. Low pressure across northern Texas will continue to strengthen the PGF along the lower Texas coast. Expect temperatures to once again hit into the low to mid 90s across Deep South Texas, with triple digits possible across the upper valley. A Rip Current Statement has also been issued for the high risk of rip currents along the lower Texas coast.
This area has formed on the back edge of the trough axis that moved through yesterday. The low is currently along the AZ/NM/Mexico border and as it continues to shift eastward, the enhancement will drop south across the area. Temperatures will warm considerably as a high amplitude ridge of high pressure builds in. Models remained consistent in depicting a sharp ridge of high pressure continuing to build into the region.
Snow reports have been scarce, but web cameras show snow covered roads in the higher foothills and mountains. Strong northerly flow aloft on the back side of an upper trough is forecast for the CWA on Thursday.
an upper level trough will slowly move southeast through the area today and out of the area by midnight. High temperatures will be quite a bit colder compared to the past few days as we'll be under considerable cloudiness and range from the low to upper 50s. dry conditions are expected under a generally clear sky as a large upper level ridge axis off the California coast slowly brings increasing 500mb heights and warming 850mb temperatures to the area.
/issued 455 AM EDT Wed Apr 28 2021/ Ridging aloft over the eastern U. High pressure over the Atlantic will keep east to southeast flow over the waters through Wednesday, with flow gradually shifting more southerly then westerly through the rest of the week. High pressure over the Atlantic Ocean gradually retreats east later this week as a front approaches the region, with southerly winds gradually becoming more westerly into the weekend before shifting back southerly late in the weekend along with a chance for showers and a few thunderstorms.
An upper low west of El Paso will continue to move eastward today, providing lift to the region. While most of the convective models indicate storms in the Big Country to weaken this morning, with additional storms will be developing mid afternoon along the cold front.
542 AM EDT Wed Apr 28 2021 As high pressure is shoved eastward, the period of dry weather will end this afternoon with the approach of a cold front. The upper level pattern remains with ridging in the southeast CONUS with return flow continuing into the Upper OH Valley for Thursday. Though weaker than the previous setup, a jet streak will then move into the lower OH Valley providing lift into KY, southern OH and WV.
Satellite and area observations show plenty of moisture moving east northeast across the Tennessee valley on the northern edge of the upper ridge. Ridge of best instability will be across the western and northern areas of the region. Diegan Chattanooga Airport, TN 84 64 84 60 73 / 0 0 40 70 20 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 80 65 82 57 70 / 0 10 50 80 30 Oak Ridge, TN 81 63 82 56 71 / 10 10 60 80 20 Tri Cities Airport, TN 81 60 80 55 67 / 10 10 50 80 30.
340 AM PDT Wed Apr 28 2021 Dry and much warmer weather through the rest of the week. A +2 to 3 5H height anomaly (strong ridge) along the W coast of NOAM shifts inland the next couple of days in the wake of the Desert SW upper low. ) An increase in cloud cover on Fri associated with an approaching short wave trof moving into the Pac NW may limit max temps a couple of degrees on Fri. This will be followed by onshore flow and minor synoptic cooling on Sat as the trof weakens the ridge as it moves through the western states. Localy breezy winds over the Sierra this morning should decrease by midday as gradient weakens with the departing upper low.
Early this morning, a closed low remained across the southwest CONUS with southwest flow over the central and southern Plains. An attendant cold front was draped across the CWA along a line from Hiawatha to Manhattan to Abilene. To the south, conditions have stayed rather warm and moist overnight with temperature readings in the low to mid 60s and dewpoints in the low 60s. The cold front slowly sags southeast through the day, finally clearing the forecast area late tonight as the upper low becomes cut- off over the southern New Mexico. Skies clear Thursday morning leading to a fairly nice spring day with highs in the low 70s.
354 AM MDT Wed Apr 28 2021 Cold frontal boundary has continued to dig southeast and extends southwesterly through the Midwest as high pressure comes on board and is pushing east across the Pacific Northwest. In the wake of the frontal boundary that dug through the CWA, broad upper level ridging is still on track to push eastward and cover the western portion of the CONUS.
West winds this PM will give way to a cold front this evening and is expected to move thru HOB at 01Z and 02Z MAF with ne winds around 15kts. High temperatures will hoover around the low 80s across the area. A cold front will roll through the area Wed/Thu dropping temps below normal Thu/Fri bringing some relief to the area. Models cutoff the upper lvl low placing it over the Chihuahuan Desert until the next upper lvl trough moves over western CONUS kicking the low eastward. 90s could be make a come back by Sun as weak upper lvl ridging will settle over the Desert SW.
High pressure at the surface and aloft is situated east of Middle Tennessee this morning, and strong return flow at the surface will continue to advect moisture into the region and keep temperatures unseasonably warm in spite of increased cloudiness. The next active weather system is coming together over the Great Plains and Upper Midwest, so more widespread activity won't occur over Middle Tennessee until Thursday as the cold front edges its way into the local area.
Warm and dry as afternoon highs reach the low 80s along the coast, and mid 80s inland. High pressure ridge axis north of the area will promote ESE winds at around 10-15 mph, could be breezy at times along the coast. High pressure across the region maintains ESE winds at 10-15 knots over the local waters today.
The aforementioned cold front in the short term discussion will be moving southeast through and then out of the forecast area on Thursday night.
551 AM MDT Wed Apr 28 2021 Cold frontal boundary has continued to dig southeast and extends southwesterly through the Midwest as high pressure comes on board and is pushing east across the Pacific Northwest. In the wake of the frontal boundary that dug through the CWA, broad upper level ridging is still on track to push eastward and cover the western portion of the CONUS.
Expect a lull in activity late tonight but showers will develop by Thursday morning ahead of an approaching cold front. Today Through Thursday Night A large upper ridge is over the east coast this morning with an upper low over the desert southwest. This upper ridge will be suppressed to the southeast as another upper trough moves southeast from the northern Plains Thursday. The southwest low will become cutoff from the main flow and blocked by the upper ridge in the Gulf of Mexico, keeping it in west Texas through Thursday night. A cold front will move into northwest Arkansas tonight continuing the rain chances through Thursday. Highs today will be in the mid 70s to mid 80s and in the lower 70s to lower 80s Thursday.
612 AM MDT Wed Apr 28 2021 Dense fog has developed overnight across the lower elevations of Converse County. Cold frontal boundary has continued to dig southeast and extends southwesterly through the Midwest as high pressure comes on board and is pushing east across the Pacific Northwest. In the wake of the frontal boundary that dug through the CWA, broad upper level ridging is still on track to push eastward and cover the western portion of the CONUS.
653 AM EDT Wed Apr 28 2021 [Through 12Z Thursday] Under the influence of strong high pressure aloft, a subsidence inversion based near 6,000 feet msl will cap the air mass. Fair weather and warm temperatures will prevail under the influence of a strong 500 mb ridge axis extending from the southwest Gulf to the FL Panhandle. At the surface, a ridge axis extending from Bermuda to southern Georgia will slip southward a bit, causing light surface flow to clock around from the southeast this morning and then south late today.
Warming trend through Thursday as high pressure builds.
322 AM PDT Wed Apr 28 2021 Dry and much warmer weather through the rest of the week. A +2 to 3 5H height anomaly (strong ridge) along the W coast of NOAM shifts inland the next couple of days in the wake of the Desert SW upper low. ) An increase in cloud cover on Fri associated with an approaching short wave trof moving into the Pac NW may limit max temps a couple of degrees on Fri. This will be followed by onshore flow and minor synoptic cooling on Sat as the trof weakens the ridge as it moves through the western states.
To the southwest of the low, a cold front points into the central Plains states. Scattered showers and some storms are occurring within the warm sector of the low across areas along/northwest of the IL River as of 4 AM tied to a wave of energy lifting through the area. Shear values ahead of the cold front are sufficient with bulk shear around 30-40 kts. High pressure builds in for the end of the week, bringing a dry period for a majority of the weekend.
402 AM MDT Wed Apr 28 2021 Upper ridging is expected to build across the western U.
Warm and dry weather is otherwise expected to prevail today as the area resides underneath SW flow aloft between a digging WRN CONUS upper trof and a ridge of high pressure over the ERN Gulf. Highs generally in the low to mid 80s are forecast with a mix of clouds and sun. Rain chances will return to the forecast on THU, especially by afternoon into THU night, as the aforementioned upper trof nudges a frontal boundary toward and into the area. Global models have come into fairly good agreement now that this upper trof will fracture, with a southern stream cut off low settling into northern MX THU night while the northern branch of the trof continues off to the east.
Despite the cloud cover this morning, the warm Gulf air being advected into the region should still help us reach up into the lower to middle 80s this afternoon. Our rain chances will gradually increase late Thursday morning into Thursday afternoon as a northern stream upper-trough (and its associated cold front) pivots from the KS/MO into the Mid South.
424 AM MDT Wed Apr 28 2021 Current surface analysis shows low pressure now across KS, with rainfall southeast of the area. Ridge is building along the west coast.
611 AM EDT Wed Apr 28 2021 Warm and dry today and Thursday as an offshore high pressure system continues breezy southerly flow into the region.
RA/TSRA is expected to end from west to east after beginning 04-05z and will be accompanied with a windshift the west northwest as a cold front moves through those sites. /Issued 430 AM CDT Wed Apr 28 2021/ Several rounds of showers and thunderstorms will continue through tonight, before ending from northwest to southeast late tonight and Thursday as a cold front pushes through the area.
A ridge of high pressure will lead to warm and dry weather through the rest of the week, with milder conditions along the coast. Strong high pressure aloft is building over the West Coast and will promote sunny and warm conditions which will persist through the end of the week across NW California.
A weak cold front attendant to the sfc reflection of a 500mb low located over northern Manitoba looks to propagate from west-east across Wisconsin during the daytime.
318 PM CDT Wed Apr 28 2021 A cold front will continue to make its way eastward through the state this afternoon into early tonight, providing a slight chance for light rain as the moisture has to make it through a dry boundary layer. Northwesterly winds and clouds will increase again during the day tomorrow ahead of a secondary, back door cold front. Expect warmer overnight temperatures in the mid 30s to low 40s for Thursday night with increased cloud cover.
249 PM CDT Wed Apr 28 2021 Small compact upper low, likely being partially influenced by last nights convection and left over MCV, continues to drift slowly southward across far southwest Nebraska this afternoon. Should see a substantial rise in temperatures Thursday as a plume of warmer air (H85 temps of 10-12C) spread across the area.
Some thunderstorms will possibly develop across the Lower Trans Pecos and Permian Basin this afternoon and evening, but have left out of the TAFs for now as there is high uncertainty. High temperatures will hoover around the low 80s across the area. A cold front will roll through the area Wed/Thu dropping temps below normal Thu/Fri bringing some relief to the area. Models cutoff the upper lvl low placing it over the Chihuahuan Desert until the next upper lvl trough moves over western CONUS kicking the low eastward. 90s could be make a come back by Sun as weak upper lvl ridging will settle over the Desert SW.
Otherwise, dry conditions with upper ridging across the TAF sites.
Warmer for the weekend. The forecast area was under the influence of an amplified southern stream, which was composed of a deep upper trough over the Desert Southwest and strong/broad ridging in the East. The southern stream will weaken the next several days as the southwest upper trough cuts off. Anticipate scatterd showers tomorrow afternoon as a cold front pushes through the area during peak heating.
240 PM EDT Wed Apr 28 2021 Warm and dry into Thursday as an offshore high pressure system continues breezy southerly flow into the region.
205 PM MDT Wed Apr 28 2021 Satellite imagery and 500 mb RAP analysis showed southwest flow over the region today, as an upper closed low spun over eastern Arizona and western New Mexico. An upper trough gradually pushed across the High Plains, keeping skies cloudy through the day with light precipitation grazing the northwestern and southeastern zones. Temperatures fall into the mid 30s to low 40s tonight as northwest flow develops aloft behind the exiting trough. A warming trend begins on Thursday, when a broad ridge amplifies over the west coast. Winds taper off and shift towards the south overnight as temperatures fall into the upper 30s/low 40s and the ridge noses into the Plains.
353 PM CDT Wed Apr 28 2021 Showers and thunderstorms continue to shift east along the cold front this afternoon. These storms have helped to push the cold front southeast a bit faster, with the front now located over Franklin and Coffey Counties. Winds will become nearly calm Thursday night as high pressure moves overhead.
352 PM CDT Wed Apr 28 2021 The main concern through is the threat for strong to marginally severe storms through the remainder of the afternoon and evening along and ahead of the sfc cold front steadily moving through the area. As of 1945Z the cold front bisects the area in a line from about Emporia KS to just west of Winfield KS. Ample bulk shear running parallel to the cold front will continue to support broken lines of convection as it continues to move southeast this afternoon and evening. Weak upper ridging is progged to remain overhead through much of the weekend brining warm and dry conditions back across the area with temps in the mid 70s to low 80s.
An alternate and probably more likely scenario is for storms to develop and organized in the Lubbock forecast area closer to the trough and along the western extent of instability, and then move into our southwest by late afternoon or evening.
1139 AM EDT Wed Apr 28 2021 Warm and dry into Thursday as an offshore high pressure system continues breezy southerly flow into the region.
High pressure continues to produce dry and warming conditions. Daytime temperatures expected to be 5 to 10 degrees warmer this afternoon than yesterday, with another 5 to 10 degree increase for tomorrow.
331 PM CDT Wed Apr 28 2021 Tonight through Thursday, strong upper level ridging and high pressure will dominate the region. As a result, high temperatures will be warmer than normal for this time of year, especially on Thursday with highs in the mid to upper 80s. Rainfall chances will be low through this period as well thanks to the high pressure.
303 PM CDT Wed Apr 28 2021 Ridge axis across the CWA with northeast winds for the far eastern CWA and westerly flow across the north central CWA.