Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
MX temps will be a couple degrees cooler and MN's a littler higher due to the increased moisture. A slightly weaker ridge aloft combined with a steady feed of gulf moisture and PWATs near 2", will result in isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms through the forecast period.
334 PM EDT Mon Sep 18 2017 High pressure will hold over the region through tonight as Jose approaches from the south.
557 PM CDT Mon Sep 18 2017 A broad longwave trough over the western U. and ridge centered over the east coast is the basic pattern at this time. The basic western trough/eastern ridge pattern will become more amplified toward the end of the week and through the weekend. With record high temperatures generally in the low 90s by the upcoming weekend. The ridge will also promote general subsidence over the area bringing generally dry weather.
106 PM EDT Mon Sep 18 2017 A weak cold front over Indiana will move east over the local area and become stationary by this evening. The front will push to the south Tuesday as high pressure begins to build back over the region from the north. The high will then dominate the weather the second half of the week. The lower atmosphere will continue to moisten in advance of the front.
220 PM MDT Mon Sep 18 2017 Latest water vapor loop was showing a fairly distinct upper level trof moving into the Pacific northwest. Further west, we may see a band of rain showers develop under the upper level trof and associated jet streak.
Going to paint the higher rain chances to the north and south, where the forcing is more evident, lowering a bit between these. The GFS and EC are still in lock-step when it comes to the overall upper level pattern - carving out a long wave trough over the western U. with ridge building across the east. Stepping back a bit, there is a warm front with this system too, and it moves northeast across WI Tue night. For Thu, the models favor lifting the Wed night front northward as a warm front as the west coast trough continues to deepen.
Weak, diffuse cold front now over Arkansas will wash out today with southerly low level flow re-establishing itself over the forecast area. Vigorous trough begins to dig across the northern Rockies on Tuesday, while zonal to slightly southwesterly flow continues across the local area.
1235 PM CDT Mon Sep 18 2017 A cold front is stalled out over the southeast corner of the forecast area this morning with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms just outside the forecast area. Highs today should range from 78 in Galesburg to 86 in Lawrenceville due to cloud cover and the slightly cooler air mass north of the front. Cooler and drier air has settled into the northwest tip of the CWA, with dew points near Galesburg down to 49 degrees, but still 58 at Peoria. An upper ridge over the eastern U. With the building ridge, precipitation chances will be shutting down. Any lingering showers/storms from Tuesday's upper wave will be diminishing by evening, then the ridge will start to build in earnest.
457 PM MDT Mon Sep 18 2017 A large trough was moving across the Pacific Northwest and spreading mid/high clouds toward the CWA this afternoon with widespread low-level warm advection and surface pressure falls across the northern high plains. This was fostering gusty south/southwest winds across the CWA, which will continue through tonight ahead of the incoming trough. On Tuesday a cold front will move across the CWA.
Showers and cooler temperatures will persist through the week due to an unseasonably cold upper level low. High pressure will rebuild late this week leading to a warming and drying trend.
339 PM MDT Mon Sep 18 2017 A cold wet pacific low pressure trough will bring snowfall to the western and northern mountains of wyoming this evening. Strong gusty west winds are also expected on the passes and higher ridges. The lower elevations will see rain with local heavy rainfall possible.
A cold front will push through tonight with scattered showers. Otherwise expect cooler temperatures with highs generally in the 60s.
However, this has been made trickier as obs indicate that where clouds aren't providing a significant obscuration, we're actually running a bit warmer than forecast. The high forecast for this afternoon attempts to stitch these two disparate ideas together. Finally, PoPs are brought to an end rather quickly, as subsidence behind this trough along with the loss of heating should cut convection off pretty rapidly. The models show that the 500 mb high pressure area will weaken and move southward today. Some of the high resolution models seemed to be a bit overdone, especially early this morning over the inland areas.
243 AM EDT Tue Oct 3 2017 High pressure in control through mid week. The upper ridge axis will shift to the east coast tonight.
515 AM EDT Tue Oct 3 2017 High pressure extending into the area from the northeast will shift slowly to the east over the next few days. Upper ridge axis just to our N and W, stretching from the Gulf Coast NE into the Central Apps. Some upper impulses rotating clockwise around the E periphery of the ridge progged to shift SW along the coastal Carolinas. Will continue to trend on the high side of guidance on max temps based on recent observed biases.
406 AM EDT Tue Oct 3 2017 High pressure over Maine will dominate the local area through today. Low pressure will move east across the northern Great Lakes tonight forcing a weakening cold front to move east across the area Wednesday.
621 AM EDT Tue Oct 3 2017 High pressure in control through mid week. The upper ridge axis will shift to the east coast tonight.
624 AM EDT Tue Oct 3 2017 High pressure over Maine will dominate the local area through today. Low pressure will move east across the northern Great Lakes tonight forcing a weakening cold front to move east across the area Wednesday.
At this point, a cold front is anticipated to impact the KGUY and KDHT terminals around 16Z. As this cold front moves across the terminals there will be a chance for convection. Also at 00Z, the cold front is expected to move through KAMA.
On the synoptic scale an upper low over the northern Plains will lift northeast towards northwest Ontario and weaken today and tomorrow. The cold front sitting across central Minnesota this morning associated with this low wil push east across the region today with cool air advecting in from the west at low levels.
339 AM PDT Tue Oct 3 2017 Cooler weather with breezy north winds early this week. Clear skies across much of interior NorCal, but clouds have increased over the far northern portion of the state overnight as the upper low closes off. Northerly surface gradients remain tight (around 12 mbs MFR-SAC currently), but surface winds are light through much of the valley as the boundary layer has decoupled, upper support is much lighter and subsidence weaker as the low approaches. Confidence continues to increase for the potential for showers across the northern Sierra this afternoon and evening as the low drops southward. The low moves east tonight and Wednesday with dry and milder weather through the remainder of the week.
High pressure centered across the northeast states will maintain low level easterly flow across the area again today. Afternoon high temperatures are expected to reach the low to mid 80s across most of the area.
The dense fog is expected to break up around 10am this morning, paving the day to a sunny day with temperatures a few degrees below normal across NE Utah and NW Colorado, but a few degrees warmer than normal across the Four Corners region as southerly flow develops. A closed low splitting off from the parent low trekking across the Great Lakes region will plant itself over Nevada during the next couple of days. Southwest winds will drastically increase aloft on Wednesday as this -20C cold core H5 low interacts with the high pressure centered over Texas. In the low 80s for many low valleys with temperatures in the mountains downright pleasant in the 50s and 60s. Decent forecast CAPE, but lapse rates on the lower side due to increased cloud cover.
Dry conditions and breezy to gusty winds will persist over the higher elevations today, especially in the North Bay Mountains. Seasonably cool temperatures persist across the region this morning and will continue through the remainder of the day as an upper level low drops southward over the state. Temperatures will then rebound back to near seasonal averages on Wednesday as the aforementioned upper level low pushes inland into Nevada. Additional warming is forecast through late week as a ridge of high pressure builds along the West Coast.
Highs should be considerably warmer today with the added sunshine, with upper 70s to lower 80s expected. Short range models indicate the 5h ridge positions will bridge itself further west into TX by Wed-Thu.
Lower ceilings are likely after 00-02z as moisture continues to increase and low clouds form behind a cold front in northwest Oklahoma. /issued 253 AM CDT Tue Oct 3 2017/ Moisture advection ahead of a cold front today will result in mostly cloudy conditions or increasing clouds.
Expect widespread IFR to MVFR conditions through midday or so, before high pressure aloft building in from the east helps to improve flight categories from southeast to northwest into central Arkansas. An upper level ridge of high pressure was located across the SE US this afternoon, and this ridge will gradually flatten and shift westward over the course of the term. Some weak disturbances will propogate around the periphery of the ridge over the next couple of days, which will make for some relatively low rain chances, generally in the 20-30 pct range. With the ridge overhead and a lack of deep instability, rain chances over the next few days are going to be hit-or-miss, and relatively light.
539 AM EDT Tue Oct 3 2017 High pressure over northern New England will bring moderating temperatures and mainly dry weather for the next several days.
/BB/ Minor upward adjustment made to overnight temps due to slightly warmer initial temps, and lingering cloudiness overnight. The combination of an inverted low-level trough, and a cold front retrograding through the forecast area overnight into Tuesday morning, will keep a chance of showers in the forecast for the rest of this afternoon and into tonight. Skies will gradually clear from east to west across the CWA through the course of the day Tuesday, as high pressure to the northeast builds into the region.
143 AM EDT Tue Oct 3 2017 Upper level ridge aloft will maintain warm and dry conditions through the first half of the week. Low pressure will pass north of the Great Lakes on Wednesday with a frontal boundary sinking south and stalling overhead for the second half of the week. Warm and dry pattern continues beneath a strong upper level ridge. At the surface, high pressure is now centered over New England and will maintain a light southeast wind so temperatures will not be as cool as last night. Forecast lows tonight generally in the mid 40s to low 50s except for a couple of the cooler locations which may still drop to near 40.
While an upper-level jet streak will remain centered over our area today and tonight, a large upper level ridge will begin to develop across most of the southern and eastern CONUS during this time. At the surface, a large high pressure system centered over New England will gradually expand southwestward into our area through tonight. A fairly tight pressure gradient will remain present between this feature and relatively low pressure over the Gulf, so breezy east- northeasterly winds will continue through early evening with gusts up to 20 mph. Deep layer ridging north of the area will suppress most shower activity over the area, except out over the gulf.
A strong cold front was rolling across central and southwest Kansas early this morning. Cloudy and much cooler weather will be spreading into western Kansas today behind the front. The frontal boundary will be lifting north as upper level high pressure over the lower Mississippi Valley retrogrades westward into the southern Plains.
552 AM CDT Tue Oct 3 2017 08z/3am surface analysis shows sprawling ridge of high pressure extending from Maine to the Gulf Coast. Temperatures will likely be a few degrees cooler than yesterday though. Given the cloud cover, highs today will generally remain in the lower 80s.
A breezy day expected for the region today with temperatures a few degrees warmer than yesterday.
156 AM EDT Tue Oct 3 2017 High pressure keeps things quiet today through most of Wednesday, other than early morning valley fog.
131 AM EDT Tue Oct 3 2017 High pressure centered over Southern New England will bring cool nights and mild afternoons tonight through Tuesday night.
Breezy and mild conditions are expected in most areas today, with warmer than normal temperatures along the coast. Breezy and mild conditions can be expected today as a dry low pressure system passes through the region. As of 3:00 AM Tuesday, this low pressure system was located directly overhead Trinity county and moving gradually to the south.
312 AM EDT Tue Oct 03 2017 Strong, Canadian high pressure initially centered over New England will moderate as it builds south along and offshore the middle Atlantic coast during the next few days. Strong deep layer ridging over the Mid Atlantic Region will continue to dominate. Slow gradual moderation of antecedent cool dry airmass in place will result in slightly warmer temps than the previous two nights. Compared to this same time yesterday, sfc dewpoints are a good 2 to 4 degrees F higher, and should see similar trend in morning lows ranging from mid to upper 40s in the typically cooler spots to lower/mid 50s elsewhere. Ridging both sfc and aloft will continue over the area through this part of the forecast.
Heights will rise slightly today and there should be a good amount of sunshine with continued dry conditions, so will prog MaxT in the lower 80s, a couple ticks warmer than yesterday.
247 AM CDT Tue Oct 3 2017 The main concerns in the Short Term are precipitation chances today, then the potential for freezing temperatures southwest tonight.
447 AM EDT Tue Oct 3 2017 High pressure over northern New England will bring moderating temperatures and mainly dry weather for the next several days.
Another quiet morning across the Mid-State, as we continue to enjoy the comforting protection of an upper level ridge. Expect upper level ridge axis to retrograde through Wednesday, with our southerly surface flow becoming east to northeast during the day on Wednesday.
350 AM MDT Tue Oct 3 2017 Positive tilted trough extending from southern Canada, southwest towards the southwest CONUS.
140 AM EDT Tue Oct 3 2017 High pressure will remain atop the area into Wednesday with fair and seasonably mild temperatures. A cold front will cross the area Wednesday night along with a chance of showers and possibly a few thunderstorms.
242 AM PDT Tue Oct 3 2017 A trough over the Western U. Warming will occur during the second half of the week as the trough lifts out and a weak high pressure ridge builds into the area.
An upper high to the east of the Panhandles and a closed upper low over the Great Basin region will allow for an active southwesterly flow pattern aloft today through the middle of this week.
Upper level low is taking shape this morning and move across the area with strong gusty winds and precipitation. High pressure moves in towards the end of the week with dry conditions and a warming trend.
212 AM EDT Tue Oct 03 2017 Strong, Canadian high pressure initially centered over New England will moderate as it builds south along and offshore the middle Atlantic coast during the next few days. Strong deep layer ridging over the Mid Atlantic Region will continue to dominate. Slow gradual moderation of antecedent cool dry airmass in place will result in slightly warmer temps than the previous two nights. Compared to this same time yesterday, sfc dewpoints are a good 2 to 4 degrees F higher, and should see similar trend in morning lows ranging from mid to upper 40s in the typically cooler spots to lower/mid 50s elsewhere. Ridging both sfc and aloft will continue over the area through this part of the forecast.
The low level thermal ridge will be in place across srn WI with 925 temps reaching 18-20c. A surface cold front will push into the western portion of the forecast area by mid evening, drifting southeast of Wisconsin shortly after sunrise on Wednesday.
Strong energy feeding down from the north is helping a trough over us form into a cutoff low today. This low will end up over the northern Sierra later today and then gradually slide into the Great Basin on Wednesday. After a cool start, temperatures should be a little bit warmer today, at least on the west side where there will be more sun. I would expect similar conditions on Wednesday as the low continues to spin just to our east.
112 AM EDT Tue Oct 3 2017 Dry weather is expected through mid week under the influence of high pressure across the Ohio Valley.
Upper low will still cut off around Reno this afternoon, while the other upper circulation in eastern Montana loses its wrap-around influence to our Central Mountains.
408 AM CDT Tue Oct 3 2017 This morning: The cold front is slowly moving southeast across the area with a broken line of rain and thunderstorms approximately from Columbus, NE southwest to Hill City, KS. An abundant amount of rain fell across portions of north central Kansas and south central Nebraska along and ahead of the cold front with reports of 3 to 4 inches of rain in some locations. Today: The cold front is expected to slowly continue to track southeast across the remainder of the area and into eastern Kansas during the day today. Temperatures will fall as the front moves through with temps behind the front continuing to be in the low 60s throughout the day.
Elongated upper level low was present over eastern Montana this morning with a broad area of diffluence and lift on its western sides affecting much of north-central Montana. This low will pivot east along with this region of good diffluence and lift as it slowly weakens today. The downslope flow is expected to become weaker near daybreak as the low pivots eastwards. The wind will be slower to die off with many of these locations seeing breezy northwest winds around 20 to 30 mph through much of the day along with cooler temperatures as the clouds will be slow to clear up. Warmer conditions will move in on Wednesday with a few mountain snow showers, and low elevation rain showers, possible in western zones in the evening hours as a weak upper level low moves into the region.
1208 AM CDT Tue Oct 3 2017 Wind gusts will diminish after sunset, however the sustained winds will likely remain near 10kts overnight due to the tight pressure gradient ahead of a low pressure system. Low-level moisture streaming into the region around the edge of a sprawling high pressure center will bring increased cloudiness to the area tonight and tomorrow. Although the high temperature forecast for tomorrow was decreased by a few degrees based on the expected cloud cover and scattered precipitation, expected highs in the low 80s will still be 5-10 degrees above average for this time of year. Kanofsky The upper level pattern will flatten by the middle of the week, causing the cold front to become quasi-stationary over the region.
445 AM EDT Tue Oct 3 2017 High pressure will continue influence the region through Wednesday.
253 AM CDT Tue Oct 3 2017 Moisture advection ahead of a cold front today will result in mostly cloudy conditions or increasing clouds.
339 AM EDT Tue Oct 3 2017 High pressure will remain overhead through Wednesday.
408 AM CDT Tue Oct 3 2017 The axis of heavy rainfall set up from a Redwood Falls to Buffalo to Cambridge line overnight.
SHORT TERM (Today through Wednesday): Deeper moisture profile building inland this morning, as the inverted midlevel trough sweeps inland. The midlevel trough drifts west tomorrow, taking some of the instability, but moisture remains, along with daytime heating and negligible cap, will produce more showers and thunderstorms.
156 AM EDT Tue Oct 3 2017 Canadian high pressure has built south into the area and will control the weather through work week. High pressure centered over Quebec Canadian will lead to clear sky overnight. With the axis of the high being over the area as well, this should lead to light to calm winds. Have leaned toward the cooler Met guidance while also using last nights values as a guide going a couple degrees warmer, especially in the protected locations west of Interstate 95.
124 AM EDT Tue Oct 3 2017 High pressure in control through mid week. The upper ridge axis will shift to the east coast tonight.
This has helped temperatures jump into the lower and middle 80s (the first time Lubbock has eclipsed 80 degrees since September 23rd). Tuesday will be a bit of a transition day as deeper layer moisture advects through Central Texas around the western periphery of an upper ridge centered over the southeastern states. Widespread showers and thunderstorms should follow with the risk of locally heavy rain (given the high PWATs). Even so, the greatest focus for heavy rain may quickly shift into the Texas Panhandle where a cold front is progged to stall out and provide a more definitive focus. The deep moisture plume will linger over the southern High Plains through late week, but upper ridging will build westward through the center of the state at the same time.
319 AM CDT Tue Oct 3 2017 Some of the early morning convection along the cold front across western Kansas may push into western parts of central Kansas before waning somewhat after sunrise. The cold front will move slowly east across central Kansas during the day with renewed convection expected along the front this afternoon. The frontal boundary looks to become quasi-stationary near the Oklahoma border on Wednesday with upper ridging progged across the area.
141 AM EDT Tue Oct 3 2017 High pressure extending into the area from the northeast will shift slowly to the east over the next few days. Upper ridge axis just to our N and W, stretching from the Gulf Coast NE into the Central Apps. Some upper impulses rotating clockwise around the E periphery of the ridge progged to shift SW along the coastal Carolinas. Will continue to trend on the high side of guidance on max temps based on recent observed biases. An upper level ridge will remain rather strong and centered just west of the area.
This is in response to a strong jet streak right over our region along with a short wave trough to our southwest kicking out northeast towards our region. The higher amounts of rain are expected to be closer to the front, across the southeastern CWA, where another three quarters to one and a half inches are possible. The front finally begins to move east on Tuesday, with weak high pressure bringing dry conditions by mid morning. Low temperatures tonight will range from around 40 degrees across north central South Dakota, to the lower 50s across west central Minnesota. Expect the high to be directly overhead late Wednesday afternoon. The southwesterly flow aloft will be replaced by a ridge as the northern 500mb low exits across eastern Canada and the sizable trough/cut off low, lingers over the western U.
315 AM CDT Tue Oct 3 2017 08z/3am surface analysis shows sprawling ridge of high pressure extending from Maine to the Gulf Coast. Temperatures will likely be a few degrees cooler than yesterday though. Given the cloud cover, highs today will generally remain in the lower 80s.
319 AM EDT Tue Oct 3 2017 High pressure extending into the area from the northeast will shift slowly to the east over the next few days. Upper ridge axis just to our N and W, stretching from the Gulf Coast NE into the Central Apps. Some upper impulses rotating clockwise around the E periphery of the ridge progged to shift SW along the coastal Carolinas. Will continue to trend on the high side of guidance on max temps based on recent observed biases.
640 AM EDT Tue Oct 3 2017 High pressure will continue influence the region through Wednesday.