Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Otherwise, the lower level cloud cover is clearing out and should help radiational cooling potential a bit overnight. High pressure is building into the region slowly, but the stalled front south of the Ohio River Valley is keeping the cloud cover in place over the forecast area this afternoon. The southern half of the state will remain above freezing. Problem with that is that temperatures in this area are forecast to be close to freezing, but feel it will have a tough time getting to the ground, so will continue with just slight chances in the morning hours over far west central thru southeast IL and keep the precip type as rain with temperatures a degree or two above freezing.
1039 PM EST SAT NOV 28 2015 A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SAG SOUTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT BRINGING PERIODS OF RAIN TO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS.
245 PM PST SAT NOV 28 2015 A WEAK HIGH-PRESSURE RIDGE WILL LEAD TO STRENGTHENING INVERSIONS AND DETERIORATING AIR QUALITY THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
ALL THROUGH THIS TIME PATCHY LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE IS SUPPORTED BY AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ARIZONA.
TEMPERATURES ARE ABOVE FREEZING IN THE SOUTH. THUS THE TRAVEL HAZARD THREAT FROM ANY FREEZING RAIN APPEARS VERY INSIGNIFICANT. AND CONTINUE MENTION OF FREEZING RAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT IN THE SOUTHWEST. AND SURFACES NOT MUCH BELOW FREEZING. IT SEEMS THAT THE THREAT FOR FREEZING RAIN HAZARDS IS VERY VERY LOW.
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL PASS TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT. A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH MID-WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
The upper low will lift slowly northeast overnight. Despite the warmer temperatures.
PRECIP TYPE FAVORS ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS THE SOUTH AFTER MIDNIGHT. AND WITH WEAK LIFT PRESENT AND THE DRIER AIR ALOFT CANNOT RULE OUT A LITTLE LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE AT TIMES. THERE IS ABOUT A 105NM SWATH OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TRACK OF THE CYCLONE. THE CYCLONE WILL PRODUCE MODERATE TO STRONG ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AHEAD OF AND NORTH OF THE STORM WITH SOME WRAPAROUND WARM ADVECTION IN THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE 700MB LOW. BUT THERE COULD BE SOME VERY LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE LATER THIS EVENING INTO SUNDAY.
SURFACE COLD FRONT DOWN TO A CRAWL AND CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM OWENSBORO KENTUCKY DOWN THROUGH MEMPHIS AREA TO JUST WEST OF MONROE LOUISIANA.
THE TREND FOR TODAY WILL BE FOR THE LOW CLOUDINESS TO DECREASE BUT WE WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS. COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING IN ACROSS THE AREA.
BEHIND THAT MILDER AIR FROM THE EASTER PACIFIC OCEAN MOVES INTO THE AREA BRINGING SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND.
AN ELONGATED MID/UPPER TROUGH STRETCHING ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS IS PROGGED TO SHEAR EASTWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WHILE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO EDGE EASTWARD ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE SLOWLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES. THIS WILL HELP BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER OR MIDDLE 40S TUE-WED. A MID/UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED TO BUILD OVER THE SOUTHWEST EARLY IN THE WEEK EJECTING ACROSS THE PLAINS TOWARD MID-WEEK. HAVE KEPT CLOUD COVER IN AT KCNU AS THEY HAVE THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR CLOUDS TO LINGER. MAY SEE SOME AREAS OF FREEZING FOG WHICH MAY RESULT IN SLICK RUNWAYS.
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH ACROSS CENTRAL NC THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL ARRIVE BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND. ONE MORE WAVE OR POSSIBLY TWO WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ARE EXPECTED TO TRACK NE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. THE RAIN SHOULD GRADUALLY COME TO AN END FROM NW TO SE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THU NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT FINALLY MAKES ITS WAY THROUGH CENTRAL NC. LOWS WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS. HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE LOW TO MID 50S. LOWS FRI NIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. THE HIGH WILL LIKELY LINGER OVER THE SE U.
1141 PM CST WED DEC 30 2015 FOR 06Z TAFS /ISSUED 906 PM CST WED DEC 30 2015/ THE SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS NOW PUSHED JUST EAST OF THE I-59 CORRIDOR. COOLER AIR IS NOT THAT FAR AWAY, WITH MID-30S TEMPERATURES IN NORTHWEST TENNESSEE.
347 AM EST THU DEC 31 2015 A BROAD WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TODAY.
Near the surface, a broad area of high pressure stretches from the Pacific Northwest southeast into the Colorado Rockies. The remainder of the 7 day period appears mainly dry with only a slight warming trend to temperatures close to normal for early January (lows in the upper teens to around 20 and highs in the lows 40s). North to northwest winds behind the trough will help sweep the low level moisture out of western Kansas.
AREAS OF FROST WILL DEVELOP IN PORTIONS OF THE INLAND EMPIRE AND LOWER DESERTS WHERE TEMPERATURES DROP TO NEAR FREEZING.
COLD FRONT HAS MOVED EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS THIS MORNING WITH DRIER AIR BEGINNING TO FILTER IN TO THE FORECAST AREA. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED BELOW ABOUT 900 MB SO SKIES ARE STILL CLOUDY AND TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY SLOWLY FALLING INTO THE 40S WITH A FEW LOCATIONS STILL IN THE LOWER 50S. HIGHS DO NOT RISE MUCH TODAY AS COLD AIR ADVECTION WITH UPPER TROUGH MOVING IN TAKING OVER. AS COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES TONIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S THE COLDEST NIGHT IN ABOUT 10 DAYS. SOME SNOW FLURRIES COULD OCCUR TONIGHT IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS BUT NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL PREVAIL OVER THE REGION THE REST OF THIS WEEK FOR DRY WEATHER. MODELS CONTINUED TO AGREE ON A PRONOUNCED MID LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PUSHING INTO PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE EXPECTATION IS STILL FOR A DETERIORATION IN AIR QUALITY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOW ELEVATIONS AROUND PUGET SOUND. FOG SHOULD STEADILY BECOME AN INCREASING ISSUE ACROSS THE LOW ELEVATIONS. THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY THE RIDGE TIPS OVER AND SETTLES ITS AXIS ACROSS NORTHERN WASHINGTON. FRIDAY WILL BE A DIFFICULT DAY FOR THE FOG TO COMPLETELY CLEAR OUT OF THE LOW ELEVATIONS WITH THE RIDGE ATOP THE AREA.
THESE CEILINGS AND LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE BEING DRIVEN BY A BROAD REGION OF ISENTROPIC FORCING AS WARMER. MORE BUOYANT AIR JUST OFF THE SURFACE IS LIFTED UP AND OVER A SHIELD OF COOLER AND MORE STABLE AIR AT THE SURFACE.
2016 BEGINS WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING RAIN. THEN A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO SOUTHEAST GEORIGA TONIGHT AND NORHTEAST FL FRIDAY. POPS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TODAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS SE GA WITH THE APPROACH OF THE COLD FRONT. TEMPS MUCH COOLER FRIDAY RANGING FROM NEAR 60 ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN ZONES. THE COLD FRONT WILL EXIT INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA FRIDAY EVENING.
Evening update: high pressure continues to take hold and the main issues are expanding stratus/fog and overnight lows. Cote' 06Z TAFS: High pressure will continue to dominate the weather pattern over the Inland NW, with an expanding area of low clouds/stratus. Areas of freezing fog are also expected and it may be locally dense, especially near PUW and perhaps MWH as the stratus deck is spreading in.
A WEAK BOUNDARY/FRONT RAN FROM THE LOW INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND THEN WEST ALONG THE IOWA/MINNESOTA BORDER. HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S MOST AREAS. 850MB CHARTS SHOW A SUBTLE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH BRINGING WITH IT A PERIOD OF COLD AIR ADVECTION AND FALLING 850MB TEMPS TO BETWEEN -6 C TO -9 C.
1101 PM EST WED DEC 30 2015 WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
418 AM EST THU DEC 31 2015 LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND MOVES INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS LATER THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THIS HIGH THEN BUILDS SOUTH OF THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE STARTING TO ADVECT IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S IN THE NORTH. TO THE LOWER 40S IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL ONLY CLIMB 5 TO 8 DEGREES HIGHER THAN THE LOWS. GENERALLY PEAKING IN THE LOW TO MID 40S. BUT HAVE STILL STUCK WITH NUMBERS WARMER THAN GUIDANCE. TO THE LOWER 30S SOUTHEAST. THE HIGHER RESOLUTION NAM LIKELY HAS A BETTER HANDLE ON SOME LOW CLOUDS REMAINING TRAPPED UNDERNEATH A STRONG INVERSION THROUGH FRIDAY AND LIKELY FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR A RIDGE/VALLEY SPLIT IN OUR WESTERN VALLEYS.
00Z forecast models continue to show a broad upper level trof over the Midwest that gradually shifts east across the Great Lakes region and into New England this New Years weekend. Meanwhile large high pressure over the central plains, ridges eastward into the mid MS and OH river valleys next few days and to provide dry wx over central and southeast IL. Breezy west winds 10-20 mph will make it feel cooler Friday with partly to mostly sunny skies (more clouds ne CWA).
302 AM EST THU DEC 31 2015 A IMMENSE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE UNITED STATES WEST OF THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND NORTH OF THE FOUR CORNERS AREA. MEANWHILE A TROUGH IS DRAPED DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD. HIGH PRESSURE RESIDES SOUTH OF THE TROUGH AND OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. THE AXIS OF THE ATLANTIC RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
THIS HAS RESULTED IN A LOW STRATUS/FOG BANK TO RETROGRADE WEST ACROSS THE CWA BRINGING FREEZING FOG ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES. COORDINATED ISSUANCE OF A FREEZING FOG ADVISORY THRU 9 AM THURSDAY FOR NEARLY THE ENTIRE CWA. VLIFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT KDHT UNDER FREEZING FOG WITH MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO LOW STRATUS AT KGUY. IT IS EXPECTED THAT SOME VARIATION OF LIFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THRU 31/16Z DUE TO LOW STRATUS AND FREEZING FOG. ONCE DRIER NORTHERLY FLOW SETS IN BEHIND A PASSING WEAK COLD FRONT. FREEZING FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: ARMSTRONG. FREEZING FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BEAVER.
250 AM EST THU DEC 31 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WITH DRIER AND COLDER AIR WILL FILTER IN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH PERIODS OF SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS. WITH A COLD FRONT EAST OF THE AREA. MAIN STORY FOR THE PERIOD IS A PERIOD OF COOLER WEATHER.
/ISSUED 344 PM EST WED DEC 30 2015/ HIGH PRESSURE, CENTERED TO THE EAST, WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL FOR A COUPLE MORE DAYS. BY FRIDAY, A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH SOUTH FLORIDA.
302 AM CST THU DEC 31 2015 A COLD FRONT STRETCHES FROM NEAR ATLANTA GEORGIA TO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS HAS CLEARED THE LOW CLOUDS FOR AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. WITH THE HIGH BUILDING IN. HIGHS WILL BE RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S TO THE UPPER 40S. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S.
217 AM CST THU DEC 31 2015 Near term forecast challenge is the low cloud/clearing. It looks like the best west to east displacement of the airmass will occur after 00Z, when a rounding upper trof begins to translate southward down the Mississippi river valley. This will finally shift the low clouds.
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS CHARACTERIZED BY A FAIRLY BROAD AND EXTENSIVE LONGWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO THE MIDWEST. THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS STILL YET TO PIVOT THROUGH TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. WITH WIND CHILLS ALREADY IN THE TEENS AND SOME SINGLE DIGITS FOR ANY EARLY EVENING ACTIVITIES AND AROUND ZERO IN NC ILLINOIS TO THE LOW TEENS IN NW INDIANA AT MIDNIGHT. HIGHS STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE LOW TO MID 20S WITH SOME SNOW IN PLACE.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. EXPECT PATCHY FREEZING FOG IN LOW LYING AREAS ACROSS SOUTHEAST IDAHO THURSDAY MORNING AND TO A LESSER EXTENT FRIDAY MORNING.
THIS TROUGH OF COLD AIR ALOFT WILL ALSO BRING DOWN ANOTHER BATCH OF 4K-6K FOOT CLOUDS. AN ELONGATED POSITIVELY TILTED H5 TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN OVER US THE PAST FEW DAYS WILL MOVE INTO MN. THE ONLY OTHER INTERESTING WEATHER FEATURE IN THE COMING DAYS IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT SUN-MON.
342 AM EST THU DEC 31 2015 CLOUDY SKIES WILL PERSIST TODAY UNDER WEAK HIGH PRESSURE.
COOLER AND RELATIVELY DRIER AIR WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO FILTER ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH HIGH TEMPS STRUGGLING TO GET OUT OF THE 50S FROM ALONG NORTH/WEST OF AN I-20/I-85 LINE TOMORROW (THURSDAY). EVEN COOLER CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY WITH DAYTIME TEMPS ACTUALLY EXPECTED TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE FIRST TIME IN NEARLY TWO WEEKS! DJN.
HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOW 20S. BETTER CHANCES FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW ARRIVE LATE TONIGHT AS NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH DIVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND BRINGS SLIGHTLY COLDER AIR. HIGH TODAY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY BUT COLD AIR INTRUSION WILL LEAD TO LOWS IN THE LOW 20S TONIGHT. ARDENT BLOCKY 130W RIDGING TO SEQUESTER MAJORITY OF CONSTRAINED ENERGY ACROSS NRN CA/NRN NV THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MORE VEERING OF LOW LEVEL FLOW ALONG WITH QUITE NOMINAL LK THERMAL INSTABILITY FAVORS JUST A BIT HIGHER CLOUD COVER SUN/SUN NIGHT WITH LATEST ECMWF/CANADIAN MARKEDLY SHARPER WITH ENERGY TOPPING WESTERN RIDGE/PHASING WITH CANADIAN MARITIMES ROOTED VORTEX.
/ISSUED 841 PM CST WED DEC 30 2015/ ISSUANCE OF FREEZING FOG ADVISORY. ISSUED A FREEZING FOG ADVISORY FOR WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND FAR WESTERN OKLAHOMA. BUT WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR W STRENGTHENS AND THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS OVER OK/N TX.
as a highly amplified upper ridge noses into Western NOAM from the Eastern Pacific. An anticyclonic wave break will occur beneath the ridge. with a piece of energy hanging back behind in the West from the exiting larger scale trough that has encompassed much of the nation this week. The end result will be a split flow block over the Western CONUS and a trough over the Northeast. Ridging aloft over the Plains will keep things quiet. ridging will continue to build into the region and this will keep highs below average thru Friday. Highs will continue to moderate going into the weekend as ridging prevails aloft. It appears to be a result of how each model handles an amplified upper trough as it digs down over the Great Lakes.
WATER VAPOR CONTINUES TO SHOW A LARGE UPPER TROUGH WORKING INTO THE CENTRAL U.
COOLER CLOUD TOPS ASSOCIATED WITH AREA OF LIFT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH ARE CROSSING INTO WRN CO AT THIS TIME AND RADAR RETURNS FROM KGJX ARE STARTING TO SHOW BANDED ENHANCEMENT FROM NEAR MOAB TO THE GRAND MESA. WITH TROUGH AXIS PASSING IN THE 5 AM TO 8 AM TIME FRAME. AS MAIN UPPER TROUGH PULLS AWAY TO THE EAST AND THE PINCHED OFF TAIL SECTION FORMS AN UPPER LOW WELL TO OUR WEST. AS UPPER LOW REMAINS TO OUR WEST.
232 AM CST THU DEC 31 2015 Near term forecast challenge is the low cloud/clearing. It looks like the best west to east displacement of the airmass will occur after 00Z, when a rounding upper trof begins to translate southward down the Mississippi river valley. This will finally shift the low clouds.
The remainder of the 7 day period appears mainly dry with only a slight warming trend to temperatures close to normal for early January (lows in the upper teens to around 20 and highs in the lows 40s). Additonally, high relative humidity and extremely light winds have led to the development of patchy freezing fog across the area.
335 AM CST THU DEC 31 2015 Very little to talk about this morning as region remains under the influence of sfc ridging which extends into our area from the northwest.
1008 PM CST WED DEC 30 2015 TEMPERATURES RUNNING A LITTLE WARMER THAN PREV FCST. /ISSUED 349 PM CST WED DEC 30 2015/ BROAD UPPER TROF OVER THE WRN AND CNTL CONUS CONTINUES TO PRODUCE SWLY FLOW ALOFT OVER OUR AREA. SHALLOW HIGH PRES RIDGES SOUTH ACRS OK INTO NE TX WHILE A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES TO SIT FURTHER SE ACRS THE NRN AND WRN GULF.
301 AM EST THU DEC 31 2015 FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES, STRATUS REMAINS IN PLACE WITHIN MASSIVE LOWER ATMOSPHERE HIGH PRESSURE. SHORT WAVELENGTH UPPER TROUGH WILL PIVOT ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY ALLOWING FOR A BRIEF INFLUX OF COLDER AIR.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S AND HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER 30S. SUBSIDENT REGION FOLLOWS AND SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO MIX OUT THE LOWER DECK OF THE STRATUS LATE THURSDAY. A STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL MAINTAIN THIS DRY.
240 AM EST THU DEC 31 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WITH DRIER AND COLDER AIR WILL FILTER IN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH PERIODS OF SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS. WITH A COLD FRONT EAST OF THE AREA. DESPITE BEING UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES LARGE SCALE UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY PROPAGATING EASTWARD. WITH SECONDARY TROUGH (AND ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT) APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. COLD FRONT IS VERY WEAK AND COOLING WILL BE MINIMAL.
348 AM EST THU DEC 31 2015 LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND MOVES INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS LATER THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THIS HIGH THEN BUILDS SOUTH OF THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
ELEVATED NRLY WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SWD THROUGH THE PLAINS TIGHTENS THE AREA PRESSURE GRADIENT. /ISSUED 1008 PM CST WED DEC 30 2015/ TEMPERATURES RUNNING A LITTLE WARMER THAN PREV FCST. /ISSUED 349 PM CST WED DEC 30 2015/ BROAD UPPER TROF OVER THE WRN AND CNTL CONUS CONTINUES TO PRODUCE SWLY FLOW ALOFT OVER OUR AREA. SHALLOW HIGH PRES RIDGES SOUTH ACRS OK INTO NE TX WHILE A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES TO SIT FURTHER SE ACRS THE NRN AND WRN GULF.
With cold air advection in place with the approaching high pressure system, temperatures will remain in the 30s the next couple of days for highs with lows in the 20s.
305 AM EST THU DEC 31 2015 LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND MOVES INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS LATER THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THIS HIGH THEN BUILDS SOUTH OF THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS THE WESTERN USA IS DOMINATED BY AN EASTERN PACIFIC/WEST COAST RIDGE AND A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES. ON THURSDAY THE UPPER RIDGE WILL NOSE OVER INTO WESTERN CANADA AND THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH A REX BLOCK HIGH DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES BY FRIDAY. THIS PATTERN WILL BRING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND WARMER TEMPERATURES TO MONTANA FOR NEW YEARS DAY.
343 AM EST THU DEC 31 2015 LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND MOVES INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS LATER THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THIS HIGH THEN BUILDS SOUTH OF THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
1145 PM CST WED DEC 30 2015 FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER IN THE SHORT TERM AS ZONAL FLOW SETS ACROSS THE PLAINS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF ANOTHER WEAK TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN CONUS. IT WILL PROBABLY BE A CHILLY NIGHT TONIGHT WITH DECREASING CLOUDS AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVERHEAD. WEAK RIDGING ALOFT DEVELOPS EARLY IN THE PERIOD WITH MORE OF A NORTHERLY SURFACE COMPONENT TO THE WIND.
CDS REMAINS LIFR IN DENSE FREEZING FOG. FREEZING DRIZZLE MAY IMPACT LBB BY LATE THU EVENING WITH LATER TAFS TO ADDRESS THIS THREAT MORE PRECISELY. /ISSUED 832 PM CST WED DEC 30 2015/ UPDATED FOR THE ISSUANCE OF A FREEZING FOG ADVISORY FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA UNTIL 9 AM THURSDAY. FREEZING FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THURSDAY FOR TXZ024>026- 030>032-036>038-042>044.
BETWEEN THE RAIN TO THE SOUTH AND THE LOWER CLOUDS TO THE NORTH. LATEST COMPUTER MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE LOW CLOUDS FROM THE NORTH SHOULD PUSH SOUTHWARD (OR PERHAPS THE CLOUDS WILL LOWER OR FORM IN SITU).
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL ONLY FALL INTO THE 30S WITH A FEW SPOTS ON THE TN-KY STATE LINE REACHING THE FREEZING MARK. NEW YEAR'S EVE WILL BE A SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT STORY AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER WITH MORE STARS IN THE SKY. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE BY NOON ON THURSDAY AT ALL SITES AS THE LOWER LEVELS DRY OUT.
419 AM EST THU DEC 31 2015 WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION EARLY TODAY.
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT OFFSHORE THE CAROLINA COAST FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. LOWS WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS. WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER/MID 50S (COOLEST N/NW). IN THE LOWER 30S (RURAL AND LOW LYING AREAS NW PIEDMONT) TO MID/UPPER 30S (SE). -VINCENT A SLOWLY MOVING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH CENTRAL NC FROM THE NORTH AND WEST EARLY THIS MORNING.
MID LEVEL S/WV TROUGH MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. WITH ANOTHER S/WV TROUGH SWINGING SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA TOWARDS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
249 AM MST THU DEC 31 2015 HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING NORTHWARD INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL BRING A GRADUAL WARMING TREND. AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INLAND FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC. AND COOLER TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD. WITH HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA AND LOW PRESSURE RETROGRADING WESTWARD INTO NORTHERN CA BY THE END OF THE WORKWEEK/INTO THE WEEKEND. TO THE SOUTH OF THIS DEVELOPING UPPER LOW CENTER.
Near the surface, a broad area of high pressure stretches from the Pacific Northwest southeast into the Colorado Rockies. The remainder of the 7 day period appears mainly dry with only a slight warming trend to temperatures close to normal for early January (lows in the upper teens to around 20 and highs in the lows 40s). Additonally, high relative humidity and extremely light winds have led to the development of patchy freezing fog across the area.
IF THAT VERIFIES PRECIPITATION WOULD BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN DEPENDING ON SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GIVEN THE NEARLY STATIONARY POSITION OF THE TROUGH THROUGH THE EVENING.
WILL HOLD ONTO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT SAGS ACROSS THIS AREA TODAY. EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO PUSH SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY THIS EVENING. A COOLER AIRMASS WILL FILTER SOUTH BEHIND A COLD FRONT AND BRING LOWS DOWN INTO THE 30S AND 40S TONIGHT.
321 AM CST THU DEC 31 2015 Water vapor imagery showing broad upper trough into over the much of the western and central ConUS with a few weak waves making eastward progress out of the Central Rockies, spreading some mid cloud into western and central portions of Kansas. Continued dry air advection in the lower levels should allow for continued clearing skies today, with some scattered mid cloud suggested by most models in the west. Winds over the lower few thousand feet look strong enough to keep any widespread fog in check tonight, but if clouds are slower to move out today, a better setup for fog will be in place.
643 PM EDT FRI MAY 1 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
/ISSUED 740 AM EDT FRI MAY 1 2015/ UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THIS MORNING WILL SLIDE OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST BY AFTERNOON. THIS LOW HAD PUSHED A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH NORTH GA AND INTO CENTRAL GA THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. 41 ONE OF THE QUIETEST LONG TERMS ON TAP IN A LONG TIME WITH REGIME DOMINATED BY WEAK RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. WHILE THE UPPER RIDGE LOOKS TO DAMPEN BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
A NORTHERLY FLOW WILL FOLLOW IN THE WAKE OF A DRY COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING.
300 PM EDT FRI MAY 1 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE THE REGION WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE AND DRY CONDITIONS TODAY INTO THIS WEEKEND.
138 PM EDT FRI MAY 1 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST.
NEAR ZONAL FLOW ALOFT SETS UP AS THE UPPER RIDGE PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST. TEMPS WILL BE VERY WARM WITH THE THERMAL RIDGE OVER THE AREA. AND WITH DECENT MIXING HIGHS COULD GET INTO THE LOW 80S IN SOME AREAS.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH ACTIVITY DIMINISHING MOST LOCATIONS BY 02-03Z BUT PERSISTING A BIT LONGER.
651 PM EDT FRI MAY 1 2015 VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND THEN SETTLES SOUTH ON SATURDAY. LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS EARLY IN THE FORECAST FROM LAKE BREEZE(S) WILL TEND BACK TO LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST INTO THE MORNING SATURDAY WITH A GRADUAL BACKING TO THE WEST/SOUTHWEST DURING THE DAY AS THE HIGH SETTLES SOUTH. MAX TEMPS HAVE RISEN INTO THE LOWER 70S/AROUND 70 ACROSS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN. BUT JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED WITH THE HIGH STATIC STABILITY IN PLACE.