Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
614 PM CDT Fri Oct 18 2019 The cold front is presently creeping into the far western portions of our CWA this afternoon. Will begin to have cold air advection behind the front, and with decreasing clouds temperatures will fall into the lower 40s over all but our far east - with mid to upper 40s over the eastern counties of our CWA. In spite of the cold frontal passage, Saturday looks to be a decent day with a mixy westerly flow and highs back into the lower to mid 60s.
1030 PM EDT Fri Oct 18 2019 High pressure will build into the region tonight with light winds and clear skies.
404 PM CDT Fri Oct 18 2019 The cold front is presently creeping into the far western portions of our CWA this afternoon. Will begin to have cold air advection behind the front, and with decreasing clouds temperatures will fall into the lower 40s over all but our far east - with mid to upper 40s over the eastern counties of our CWA. In spite of the cold frontal passage, Saturday looks to be a decent day with a mixy westerly flow and highs back into the lower to mid 60s.
Steep lapse rates associated with advancing upper trough will be enough to maintain thunderstorm mention through daybreak. Updated forecast will reflect slower onset of initial storms as they have struggled to develop too far in advance of upper trough this evening. Cold front on schedule to cross the I-44 corridor by late morning with lingering low clouds briefly in its wake.
The area of low pressure set up across the James River Valley early this afternoon will be along the ND/SD/MN border by 00Z Saturday. Saturday will be marked by a ridge of high pressure, few if any clouds in the sky, and temperatures only a couple of degrees cooler than today.
Ascent downstream from this trough will steepen mid-level lapse rates with an attendant increase in elevated instability. The highest chances will likely be near CSM and OKC/OUN. Otherwise, expect a wind shift from the north with a cold front late tonight thru Sat AM for all the terminals.
715 PM EDT Fri Oct 18 2019 High pressure will build into the region tonight with light winds and clear skies.
630 PM CDT Fri Oct 18 2019 High pressure across the Great Basin will build through the cntl Rockies tonight and Saturday.
A weak trough will slide over southern Oregon and northern California tonight which should bring light rain to our northern most areas. Saturday evening, the chance for precip will come to an end as high pressure builds over the West Coast.
736 PM EDT Fri Oct 18 2019 Aviation - Warmer weekend.
431 PM CDT Fri Oct 18 2019 Current upper air analysis and water vapor satellite imagery shows trough over the western US and ridge over the Midwestern to northeastern US with drier air from the high plains to southwestern gulf. This weekend will see warmer temperatures return to the forecast around 5 to 10 degrees warmer than todays temperatures.
252 AM MDT Sat Oct 19 2019 Current surface analysis shows cold front well south and east of the region, with high pressure over the Rockies. Clouds will increase from the west late today and this evening as trough over the Pacific NW moves quickly across the Rockies tonight. A cold front and area of low pressure at the surface will move quickly east-southeast across the northern Rockies, arriving in our area later tonight and Sunday morning. Medium range models still not in real good agreement on how the trough evolves as it moves into the Plains on Sunday. Strong winds can be expected across a good portion of the forecast area Sunday into Sunday night as low pressure intensifies to the east of the region.
warmer and dry. Warmer still on Sunday as temperatures rise into the upper 60s to lower 70s.
High pressure is expected across the area through Sunday.
Bridges and overpasses could become briefly icy but travel should not be impacted otherwise.
1159 PM CDT Fri Oct 18 2019 Upper trof across the Rockies this afternoon with some lightning noted across Colorado and northern New Mexico. While influx of surface moisture will remain limited ahead of the upper trof and associated weak cold front, modest elevated moisture transport will result in weak instability later this evening/overnight as these features move eastward across the forecast area. A stronger upper trough will amplify as it moves from the northern Rockies and becomes a closed low over the northern Plains during Sunday.
155 AM MDT Sat Oct 19 2019 A cold front is currently moving southeast across the Tri-State area. An upper level ridge will move across the central U. A deepening trough approaches the central Plains Saturday night moving across to the north of the Tri-State region Sunday. Surface leeside troughing is expected to redevelop along the Front Range Saturday night. At the start of the period, northwest flow is expected aloft on the backside of an upper low over the Dakotas/Minnesota.
1124 PM EDT Fri Oct 18 2019 High pressure should provide dry conditions through Saturday. Low pressure may bring rain to areas southeast of Pittsburgh Saturday night into Sunday.
Temperatures are a few degrees warmer today due to the cloud cover, mostly in the 40s to around 50. Most of the day will be dry and sunny with highs in the lower to mid 70s. However clouds will start to increase again Sunday night in association with a jet streak ahead of a closed low over the northern Plains.
Broad upper trough was over ND and MT with short waves embedded. Some guidance suggests additional chances for rain showers exists near the international border behind the trough tonight into Saturday. The typical northeast track is expected with this low, with the GFS and ECMWF exhibiting some differences with the path.
Kept high temperatures cooler across this area due to the cloud cover. Winds will turn around to the south tonight which will keep lows warmer with readings in the 50s.
warmer and dry. Warmer still on Sunday as temperatures rise into the lower 70s.
and Sunday A cold front will bring a narrow band of rain showers to northeast Wisconsin as it tracks through the area today and this evening. Behind the front the moisture from the rain showers combined with clearing skies and light winds will likely lead to fog development after midnight as a weak ridge of high pressure tracks through the western Great Lakes. Dry weather and warmer temperatures are expected on Sunday with the region between a departing high to the east and a low pressure system building in from the west.
Tonight: Winds will turn more to the southeast in response to lee- side trough development. Sunday: Models showing better consistency tonight regarding deepening and track of upper trough moving through the Plains, so minimal forecast changes were needed.
We will leave some 20-30 PoP's over the high country this evening as there is a few more minor ripples upstream in the mid level flow. Slight ridging will build into the area tonight before the next front moves into Southeastern Montana Saturday evening. Showers will move into the mountains before moving onto the lower elevations. Rain is expected in the lower elevations with snow above 6000 ft. Low temps will drop into the low to mid 30s. Carrothers A trough will bring precipitation into the area, as a cold front will move in during the evening Saturday. As temperatures aloft cool the lower elevations will still be able to transition over a wintery mix or fully over to snow.
1249 AM EDT Sat Oct 19 2019 Aviation - Warmer weekend.
1042 PM CDT Fri Oct 18 2019 The cold front is presently creeping into the far western portions of our CWA this afternoon. Will begin to have cold air advection behind the front, and with decreasing clouds temperatures will fall into the lower 40s over all but our far east - with mid to upper 40s over the eastern counties of our CWA. In spite of the cold frontal passage, Saturday looks to be a decent day with a mixy westerly flow and highs back into the lower to mid 60s. A system is still on track to affect the area on Sunday as an upper level trough deepens over the central CONUS.
The Evening Update: Pacific trof moving onshore with vort max located off the WA/OR coast at 04z. Scattered light showers expected Sat morning over the Nrn zones as the vort max (energy within the trof) moves into ORE around 18z. JHM A weak trough will slide over southern Oregon and northern California tonight which should bring light rain to our northern most areas. Saturday evening, the chance for precip will come to an end as high pressure builds over the West Coast.
A couple of tornadoes lifted across SW Pinellas and eastern Hillsborough/Western Polk late last night in the vicinity of the warm front. Nestor will continue to lift NE through the day and become post/extra-tropical Saturday night/Sunday as drier conditions move into the area and high pressure builds locally.
Low pressure currently moving into Washington State early this morning. This ahead of the Pacific low pressure system that is forecast to be in central Wyoming towards midnight tonight.
A fast-moving, rather low amplitude trough was centered across Colorado this afternoon, with a surface cold front charging south across east central Colorado and northwest Kansas. The highest POPs in the 50-60 percent range will run from Dodge City up toward Hays and La Crosse areas. The cold front will continue to race south later in the evening with 25 to 35 mph winds expected for at least a couple hours within the region of strongest pressure rises. Temperatures behind the front will fall through the lower 50s and 40s, bottoming out in the mid to upper 30s across Hamilton County to around 50 at Medicine Lodge.
1037 PM MDT Fri Oct 18 2019 An upper trough is crossing the Rockies, pushing some clouds into the western Dakotas.
1227 AM CDT Sat Oct 19 2019 High pressure across the Great Basin will build through the cntl Rockies tonight and Saturday. 979mb low pressure across the Gulf of Alaska will move southeast and fill to around 991 across swrn SD by Sunday morning. Light west winds are expected Saturday as the high pressure centers over the Rockies. South winds develop Saturday night in response to the developing low pressure across SD.
Stronger and more vigorous upper low will dive southeast out of the central Rockies and into the central Plains on Sunday.
In the short term, the cold front moving south through our area overnight was not as strong as earlier forecast. They system brings in stronger west winds during the day, especially in the Panhandle, then a cold front Sunday night. With afternoon highs in the SW Panhandle forecast to top out in the lower 70s and considering fuel conditions, we're holding off on issuing a watch at this point. Temperatures in the SE Panhandle and Rolling Plains east of Lubbock will be much warmer with the westerly winds.
The area of low pressure set up across the James River Valley early this afternoon will be along the ND/SD/MN border by 00Z Saturday. Saturday will be marked by a ridge of high pressure, few if any clouds in the sky, and temperatures only a couple of degrees cooler than today. To start the period, an upper low will likely be located over western South Dakota.
/issued 353 PM CDT Fri Oct 18 2019/ Skies are mostly clear across most of the region with high pressure being the main influence to the area. Temperatures are currently in the low 60s to low 70s. Highs will be in the low-to- mid 70s. Temperatures will rise on Sunday as we'll see a stronger southerly flow that will usher in the warmer air.
641 AM CDT Sat Oct 19 2019 For early morning update have spread low precipitation chances a bit further south as some light showers continue to push through northwest North Dakota affiliated with compact upper low sliding into the area. Current surface analysis places cold front dropping through the upper midwest into the central plains, while high remains over the northern Rockies into the Great Basin. Upper level analysis places trough through the plains. A tight compact circulation sliding through the trough is now making its way into northwest North Dakota, resulting in a few light showers. Further west, then next trough is moving over the west coast. For tonight, aforementioned west coast trough quickly zips over the Rockies and starts to close off over northeast Wyoming into southwest South Dakota.
Warm front has lifted just north of our FA but low level shear/helicity remains fairly stout esp across northern sections.
The cold front associated with this storm will move through the entire region tonight iwth snow levels lowering to 3000 feet.
415 AM CDT Sat Oct 19 2019 WV imagery shows yesterday's trough ejecting into the MS Valley this morning, dropping a cold front in its wake into West Texas and Southeast New Mexico. On the west coast, the next trough of interest is about to make landfall.
356 AM MDT Sat Oct 19 2019 Current surface analysis shows cold front well south and east of the region, with high pressure over the Rockies. Clouds will increase from the west late today and this evening as trough over the Pacific NW moves quickly across the Rockies tonight. A cold front and area of low pressure at the surface will move quickly east-southeast across the northern Rockies, arriving in our area later tonight and Sunday morning. Medium range models still not in real good agreement on how the trough evolves as it moves into the Plains on Sunday. Strong winds can be expected across a good portion of the forecast area Sunday into Sunday night as low pressure intensifies to the east of the region.
The highest rain chances today will be in our easternmost counties with only a slight chance for a shower along Interstate 65.
1031 AM EDT Sat Oct 19 2019 High pressure remains in control today.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 62 54 76 58 / 70 60 10 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 60 51 73 55 / 70 70 10 0 Oak Ridge, TN 61 51 73 54 / 60 70 10 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 63 49 70 51 / 70 80 20 0.
A quiet start to the weekend is expected as a ridge of high pressure will maintain control of weather conditions across the area today. Temps top out slightly cooler than yesterday but still will be slightly above normal. Overnight tonight and through the end of the period, attention will turn to an incoming low pressure system that will bring in our next chance of precip. Guidance progs low pressure at the sfc and aloft to shift out of WY into the northern/central Plains on Sunday. When the period opens, a large/wound up low pressure system is churning northeast across the region.
426 AM CDT Sat Oct 19 2019 A quiet start to the weekend is expected as a ridge of high pressure will maintain control of weather conditions across the area today. Temps top out slightly cooler than yesterday but still will be slightly above normal. Overnight tonight and through the end of the period, attention will turn to an incoming low pressure system that will bring in our next chance of precip. Guidance progs low pressure at the sfc and aloft to shift out of WY into the northern/central Plains on Sunday. When the period opens, a large/wound up low pressure system is churning northeast across the region.
As the pressure gradient relaxes and ample sunshine occurs, we should top out well into the 60s for highs, despite the cooler air mass behind the cold front. Another relatively mild night tonight with lows in the lower to mid 40s. A closed low spills onto the north central Plains and drags a cold front/occluded front across the Plains.
For early morning update have spread low precipitation chances a bit further south as some light showers continue to push through northwest North Dakota affiliated with compact upper low sliding into the area. Current surface analysis places cold front dropping through the upper midwest into the central plains, while high remains over the northern Rockies into the Great Basin. Upper level analysis places trough through the plains. A tight compact circulation sliding through the trough is now making its way into northwest North Dakota, resulting in a few light showers. Further west, then next trough is moving over the west coast. For tonight, aforementioned west coast trough quickly zips over the Rockies and starts to close off over northeast Wyoming into southwest South Dakota.
Latest road cams have indicated snow falling at Willamette Pass and at the junction of highways 138 and 230 near Diamond Lake with temperatures at or slightly above freezing at those locations. A fair amount of orographic-driven rain and snow is still anticipated in these areas through the morning with the arriving trough before rates taper in the afternoon. Ample clouds and rain will continue over the region Sunday, mainly along and east of the Cascades, as a warm front lifts northward. In the wake of the upper trough moving through today, and with the thicker clouds, temperatures Sunday should be about 10 degrees below normal.
501 AM CDT Sat Oct 19 2019 Current surface analysis places cold front dropping through the upper midwest into the central plains, while high remains over the northern Rockies into the Great Basin. Upper level analysis places trough through the plains. A tight compact circulation sliding through the trough is now making its way into northwest North Dakota, resulting in a few light showers. Further west, then next trough is moving over the west coast. For tonight, aforementioned west coast trough quickly zips over the Rockies and starts to close off over northeast Wyoming into southwest South Dakota.
/Today through Sunday/ A north to south ragged line of scattered showers at base of upper trough extending from near dfw to near tsa, may clip area durg early mrng hours before trough then quickly lifts to the ne.
The High Surf Warning/Advisory remains in effect through noon today and the High Rip current risk will remain in effect through Sunday morning. Highs today will be in the low to mid 70s inland to upper 70s near the coast.
Winds are shifting to the N-NW this morning as a cold front moves through the region. /issued 415 AM CDT Sat Oct 19 2019/ WV imagery shows yesterday's trough ejecting into the MS Valley this morning, dropping a cold front in its wake into West Texas and Southeast New Mexico. On the west coast, the next trough of interest is about to make landfall.
The expected cold front has moved through through all three terminals this morning. In the short term, the cold front moving south through our area overnight was not as strong as earlier forecast. They system brings in stronger west winds during the day, especially in the Panhandle, then a cold front Sunday night. With afternoon highs in the SW Panhandle forecast to top out in the lower 70s and considering fuel conditions, we're holding off on issuing a watch at this point. Temperatures in the SE Panhandle and Rolling Plains east of Lubbock will be much warmer with the westerly winds.
Upper trough axis centers over the central high plains this morning while upstream isentropic lift streams northward ahead of the front stretching from OK through eastern KS into western IA. A drier airmass arrives behind the passing cold front with dewpoints dropping into the upper 30s and lower 40s in the late afternoon. With gradual clearing skies from west to east and a slightly modified cooler airmass entering the region, highs today are overall in the middle to upper 60s. The next upper-level trough is still on track to move out of the northern Rockies Sunday morning and develop a closed low over SD/NE. The best chance of seeing storms looks to be in eastern KS ahead of the associated surface cold front, where dew points are at least expected to reach the low 50s.
723 AM EDT Sat Oct 19 2019 Calm surface conditions with ridge of high pressure in place has resulted in an isolated area of fog over portions of Lapeer and Oakland counties. High clouds will be possible today and tonight with approaching trough. Highs in the low 60s still appear quite reasonable given full insolation to start the day.
Increasingly diffluent/cyclonic flow aloft in advance of the approaching wave will promote the development of a lee cyclone in eastern Colorado overnight. With the Tri-State area progged to remain on the far southwest periphery of the vertically stacked cyclone over the Northern Plains, expect dry conditions to prevail. Given that the aforementioned cyclone has yet to develop and will rapidly evolve Sunday morning, a fair amount of uncertainty persists with regard to the magnitude of WNW-NW winds on the southwest periphery of the cyclone. At the start of the period, northwest flow is expected aloft on the backside of an upper low over the Dakotas/Minnesota.
High temperatures will be near average for mid October for the entire region with values ranging from the low to mid 70s. Northerly winds behind the cold front will wane as we go through the day to values around 5-15 kts.
249 PM EDT Sat Oct 19 2019 High pressure moves east of the region tonight.
High pressure will pass over the region today during the daylight hours, then the next weather system will bring increasing clouds this evening with increasing chances of rain starting over Phillips and Petroleum counties this evening, then spreading east across NE MT overnight.
246 PM CDT Sat Oct 19 2019 A weak trough passed by last night pushing through a cold front which brought us cooler temperatures and crystal blue skies today. A trough deepening out of Pac-NW today will swing into the northern Central Plains tomorrow. The GFS is a bit faster than other solutions but in the long run in regards to the Sunday evening cold front, it may only make a difference of a hour or two on passage time for our forecast area (during the evening hours of Sunday).
239 PM CDT Sat Oct 19 2019 Westerly breezes will diminish this evening as low pressure begins to shift off the Rockies. Winds will shift to the southeast ahead of the low and become gusty. However, a dry slot will push into south central SD, as far north as Pierre, and cut off the rain for a few hours before the low progresses east and precip fills in behind it. Expect a cool down behind the low. To start the period, a large low pressure system will be located somewhere over the Eastern Dakotas/western Minnesota or maybe eastern Nebraska/western Iowa.
1227 PM EDT Sat Oct 19 2019 High pressure remains in control today.
Increasingly diffluent/cyclonic flow aloft in advance of the approaching wave will promote the development of a lee cyclone in eastern Colorado overnight. With the Tri-State area progged to remain on the far southwest periphery of the vertically stacked cyclone over the Northern Plains, expect dry conditions to prevail. Given that the aforementioned cyclone has yet to develop and will rapidly evolve Sunday morning, a fair amount of uncertainty persists with regard to the magnitude of WNW-NW winds on the southwest periphery of the cyclone.
227 PM CDT Sat Oct 19 2019 An upper trough is over the central part of the country with another upper trough over the Pacific Northwest. A cold front associated with the trough over the central part of the country has pushed through most of the CWA. This has resulted in cooler, drier conditions than yesterday with highs today expected to be in the 70s and 80s across most of the area. The upper trough over the Pacific Northwest digs southeastward and moves over the central part of the country on Sunday. A cold front will push through the area Sunday night.
1112 AM MDT Sat Oct 19 2019 Current surface analysis shows cold front well south and east of the region, with high pressure over the Rockies. Clouds will increase from the west late today and this evening as trough over the Pacific NW moves quickly across the Rockies tonight. A cold front and area of low pressure at the surface will move quickly east-southeast across the northern Rockies, arriving in our area later tonight and Sunday morning. Medium range models still not in real good agreement on how the trough evolves as it moves into the Plains on Sunday. Strong winds can be expected across a good portion of the forecast area Sunday into Sunday night as low pressure intensifies to the east of the region.
1251 PM EDT Sat Oct 19 2019 High pressure moves east of the region tonight.
A period of patchy fog will be possible again early Sunday morning as calm conditions will exist within this ridge. Highs in the low 60s still appear quite reasonable given full insolation to start the day.