Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
523 AM CST Tue Nov 29 2022 (Today and tonight) Deeper and drier southwest flow was found overspreading the region early this morning in the base of a broad trough that should merely graze the South Plains by this afternoon. This is especially the case across our NW zones where winds should hold at sub-advisory levels for much of the late morning and early afternoon before the gradient flow tapers behind the trough. By sunset, a strong cold front (presently in extreme SE CO as of 2 AM) should be entering Childress and Hall counties following a typical slowdown as it encounters deeper boundary layer mixing/resistance over the TX PH this afternoon.
Temperatures will moderate on Wednesday as southerly winds bring in warmer air, but this warm up will be short lived.
05" PWats) and some cooler temperatures. Conditions will quickly moderate with E/SE flow in place today and highs expected to reach into the lower 80s across much of the area. Another cold front will move through the area Wednesday/Wed Night, with lower chances of mainly showers possible ahead of the front. E/SE flow today under high pressure at 10-15 kts.
(This afternoon through Wednesday night) 500mb RAP initialization shows the upper trough centered across Colorado this afternoon. After a mild day with high temperatures reaching the mid 70s for most thanks to downsloping westerly winds, high pressure building southeastward through the central Plains will push a cold front through overnight. Temperatures will tumble back below freezing north of I-20 with lows in the 30s and 40s to the south. Northerly flow behind the front will be short lived as the high pressure center moves into the Mississippi Valley and southeasterly winds return Wednesday night. Lows will be a little bit warmer as a result, with freezing temperatures limited to the far northern zones and the higher elevations.
Wednesday through Wednesday night will be dry and colder as high pressure builds back into the area.
Broad upper trough encompasses much of the upper trough today. As previously forecast the bulk of the accumulating snowfall has been mostly contained in northwest Iowa, especially in the vicinity of tighter banding and DGZ lift near the 700mb trough axis over nw Iowa. Road temps in the metro remain just above freezing but should continue to fall coincident with air temps. Pattern regime quickly reverses course as gusty south winds beneath mean ridging aloft erodes the cold airmass.
(This evening through Wednesday) Early afternoon observations from the West Texas Mesonet show a cold front along a curved line from Childress to north of Vigo Park to Dawn to near Logan, NM, Endee. The cold front will continue to push through the area this afternoon, bringing breezy winds.
Mostly sunny and dry conditions will prevail across the area today, with frontal boundary remaining stalled south of the area and high pressure extending across the eastern U. 0 feet, and will likely fall to Minor Flood Stage late tonight into Wednesday, before a slower decline occurs into late week, as north-northeast winds increase behind a cold front.
1230 PM MST Tue Nov 29 2022 Water vapor shows trof axis over the Plains, with rather flat upper ridge over the western CONUS ahead of trof offshore the Pac NW. At the surface, high pressure continues to build southeast from ALTA and MT with gusty northwest winds through the Northern Plains.
(Through tonight) Strong cold front continues to push south this afternoon, currently located near a Shawnee, Bixby, Vinita line. Cold front will sweep south into the Ark-La-Tex region by early evening with strong and gusty northwest at 25 to 35 mph expected into the overnight hours, especially in the higher terrain of southeast Oklahoma.
Snow tapers off from west to east as the low pressure system center just to our north shifts eastward. Winds continue throughout the evening as strong cold air advection wraps around the low pressure system. As the low pressure works its way eastward, flow turns zonal to southwesterly helping to increase temperatures for the end of the work week.
But, strong, gusty winds are likely at times throughout the night as the cold front sweeps across the entire Mid State. Dry and much cooler air will sweep into the area after the cold front. Wednesday will be sunny, but cooler with a northwest breeze. Dry high pressure will set up over the area Wednesday night with cold temps in the 20s.
The forecast was updated to indicate the cold front's faster advance by about 2 hours as it moves into central Oklahoma. This will help push a strong cold front through Oklahoma and northern Texas today.
Key Messages: * A wintry mix of freezing drizzle and snow will impact the forecast area today.
129 PM EST Tue Nov 29 2022 Fair and warm weather expected today as high pressure and drier air build in.
Winds will continue to gust to around 30 mph overnight, but will start to diminish Wednesday morning west river as a ridge starts to move in. Winds combined with below freezing low temperatures will cause wind chills to be close to or below 0 tonight and Wednesday morning. A ridge starts to move in Wednesday afternoon that will bring a shift from northerly winds to southerly winds.
(This evening through Wednesday) Gusty north winds and colder temperatures are filtering in behind today's cold front.
The area of high pressure currently nosing across the Rockies into the Central High Plains is helping the snow move away from the area as winds gradually shift to be out of the west through the evening. Temperatures are expected to be in the single digits to around 10 degrees tonight as cold air continues to advect into the area behind the upper trough. Be sure to bundle up when heading outdoors tomorrow morning and don't forget your pets! An extended dry period begins on Wednesday as an upper ridge moves over the region.
1150 AM CST Tue Nov 29 2022 (Today and tonight) Deeper and drier southwest flow was found overspreading the region early this morning in the base of a broad trough that should merely graze the South Plains by this afternoon. This is especially the case across our NW zones where winds should hold at sub-advisory levels for much of the late morning and early afternoon before the gradient flow tapers behind the trough. By sunset, a strong cold front (presently in extreme SE CO as of 2 AM) should be entering Childress and Hall counties following a typical slowdown as it encounters deeper boundary layer mixing/resistance over the TX PH this afternoon.
A passing low pressure system will continue to bring strong winds to parts of northern Arizona through the early afternoon. In addition, expect noticeably cooler temperatures, especially Wednesday morning when lows in the teens and 20s are expected for areas along and north of the Mogollon Rim.
In the mid to upper levels, the ridge that slid to the east of the Bahamas has moved back to the west. The center of this ridge was located over central Cuba, east to the central and southeastern Bahamas, with the northern periphery of this ridge located over the Florida Keys, keeping the area in anticyclonic flow. In the low levels, the ridge was located over the Southeastern United States with the center a few hundred miles off the coast. Basically, expect highs in the low to mid 80s, fair weather cumulus clouds with some high cirrus streaming through, and very low rain chances. A ridge will extend from the eastern United States northeastward into the western North Atlantic through Wednesday.
An upper level trough located over the Central Great Basin and Central Rockies will quickly push east today into the Central Plains. This will send a cold front through the area and temperatures will fall into the 30s behind the front.
Due to the low-level shear and lapse rates, SPC decided to issue a PDS Tornado Watch for most of our Louisiana Parishes, excluding Shreveport and most of NW Louisiana. Storms will push out of the region from west to east during the late evening hours and should be out of the area just after midnight, followed by a cold front. Gusty northwest winds between 10-15 mph, with higher gusts, will move into the region behind the front, bringing in much cooler and drier air along with clearing skies. Can't rule out a few areas of temps near freezing, especially north of Interstate 20. However, models are bringing in some high clouds across the region, which could limit some of the radiational cooling, keeping lows above freezing.
Stacked upper low will continue to spin over southern Manitoba today, though slowly moving east.
For this evening, periods of post-frontal flurries will remain possible in the moist elevated cold advection regime aided by lift from the upper trof moving over mid-America.
The associated low pressure system will move across the Great Lakes tonight. The trailing end of the cold front will bring chances for a few showers and thunderstorms primarily to the Nature Coast on Wednesday afternoon. Ahead of the front, afternoon highs on Wednesday will range from the lower 80s in northern counties to the upper 80s in SW Florida.
1032 AM MST Tue Nov 29 2022 Current surface map places low pressure across central Kansas with high across central Montana into northeast Wyoming/far western South Dakota.
A front trailing south of this low should sweep across the forecast area in the late night. Low temperatures by daybreak should cool as colder air filters in, ranging from the lower 40s far NW AL and some our southern middle Tennessee areas, to lower 50s NE AL.
331 PM PST Tue Nov 29 2022 Cool and dry weather continues into Wednesday with near freezing minimum temperatures in the Central Valley.
634 PM EST Tue Nov 29 2022 Gusty winds and showers will accompany a cold front overnight and Wednesday. Showers and periodically gusty winds expected after midnight as a warm front lifts north across the region. By daybreak, the area will be well within the warm sector before the associated cold front pushes through during the late morning hours. Capped surface instability and northwesterly flow behind the front will result in some lake enhanced snow showers along and north of the I-80 corridor, as well as some of the higher elevations with orographic lift. As a result, snow showers will likely continue in the ridges and northwest PA.
(The rest of tonight) A strong cold front is pushing east of the CWA this evening. Much cooler air and gusty northwest winds are present across the area. Temperatures will fall below freezing in most locations tonight, with lows ranging from the mid 20s to low 30s.
653 PM EST Tue Nov 29 2022 Gusty winds and showers will accompany a cold front overnight and Wednesday. Showers and periodically gusty winds expected after midnight as a warm front lifts north across the region. By daybreak, the area will be well within the warm sector before the associated cold front pushes through during the late morning hours. Capped surface instability and northwesterly flow behind the front will result in some lake enhanced snow showers along and north of the I-80 corridor, as well as some of the higher elevations with orographic lift. As a result, snow showers will likely continue in the ridges and northwest PA.
Overnight lows will range from the lower 60s across the Nature coast to the upper 60s in SW Florida. The associated low pressure system will move across the Great Lakes tonight. The trailing end of the cold front will bring chances for a few showers and thunderstorms primarily to the Nature Coast on Wednesday afternoon. Ahead of the front, afternoon highs on Wednesday will range from the lower 80s in northern counties to the upper 80s in SW Florida.
The ridges have promoted sinking air through the atmospheric column and suppressed afternoon convection, resulting in calm and stable weather in the Keys. The tightening of the pressure gradient along the island chain due to the high pressure has yielded freshening northeast to east winds for most of the Key's coastal waters. A ridge over the eastern United States will shift to the northeast to east into the western Atlantic tomorrow. The shifting of the ridge will cause breezes to slacken and become gentle to moderate from the east to southeast.
322 PM CST Tue Nov 29 2022 Gusty southerly winds will continue into this evening ahead of a cold front that will quickly move through central and southeast Illinois.
351 PM CST Tue Nov 29 2022 Key Messages: - Cold front has passed through the region, with much colder temperatures moving in.
528 PM CST Tue Nov 29 2022 Gusty southerly winds will continue into this evening ahead of a cold front that will quickly move through central and southeast Illinois.
548 PM CST Tue Nov 29 2022 (This evening through Wednesday) Early afternoon observations from the West Texas Mesonet show a cold front along a curved line from Childress to north of Vigo Park to Dawn to near Logan, NM, Endee. The cold front will continue to push through the area this afternoon, bringing breezy winds.
538 PM CST Tue Nov 29 2022 (This evening through Wednesday) Gusty north winds and colder temperatures are filtering in behind today's cold front.
520 PM CST Tue Nov 29 2022 (This afternoon through Wednesday night) 500mb RAP initialization shows the upper trough centered across Colorado this afternoon. After a mild day with high temperatures reaching the mid 70s for most thanks to downsloping westerly winds, high pressure building southeastward through the central Plains will push a cold front through overnight. Temperatures will tumble back below freezing north of I-20 with lows in the 30s and 40s to the south. Northerly flow behind the front will be short lived as the high pressure center moves into the Mississippi Valley and southeasterly winds return Wednesday night. Lows will be a little bit warmer as a result, with freezing temperatures limited to the far northern zones and the higher elevations.
339 PM CST Tue Nov 29 2022 (Issued 339 PM CST Tue Nov 29 2022) Tonight through Wednesday night: Low pressure will track from the southwest to northeast forecast area late this afternoon into the evening, dragging a cold front through southern Wisconsin. Some of the light precip on the back side of the low may clip the northwest forecast area behind the front during the evening hours. This precip would mainly be light snow or flurries, but a brief period of freezing drizzle isn't out of the question. No snow or ice accumulations are anticipated as the low quickly pulls away from the area. Temps will crash behind the front tonight, getting down into the low 20s most places by daybreak Wednesday.
A clear, calm night behind the cold front will lead to a cool morning tomorrow.
235 PM MST Tue Nov 29 2022 After a chilly night with lows dropping into the single digits, not much of a warmup has occurred as high pressure continues to increase over the area, with a localized high pressure system ov 1026 mb over north-central Montana.
TFJ The low pressure system in Manitoba affecting northeast Montana has shifted eastward, which has brought precipitation chances down this afternoon.
428 PM MST Tue Nov 29 2022 Water vapor shows trof axis over the Plains, with rather flat upper ridge over the western CONUS ahead of trof offshore the Pac NW. At the surface, high pressure continues to build southeast from ALTA and MT with gusty northwest winds through the Northern Plains.
218 PM MST Tue Nov 29 2022 The low pressure system in Manitoba affecting northeast Montana has shifted eastward, which has brought precipitation chances down this afternoon.
506 PM CST Tue Nov 29 2022 (Through tonight) Strong cold front continues to push south this afternoon, currently located near a Shawnee, Bixby, Vinita line. Cold front will sweep south into the Ark-La-Tex region by early evening with strong and gusty northwest at 25 to 35 mph expected into the overnight hours, especially in the higher terrain of southeast Oklahoma.
505 PM CST Tue Nov 29 2022 Key Messages: - Cold front has passed through the region, with much colder temperatures moving in.
828 PM EST Tue Nov 29 2022 Gusty winds and showers will accompany a cold front overnight and Wednesday. Showers and periodically gusty winds expected after midnight as a warm front lifts north across the region. By daybreak, the area will be well within the warm sector before the associated cold front pushes through during the late morning hours. Capped surface instability and northwesterly flow behind the front will result in some lake enhanced snow showers along and north of the I-80 corridor, as well as some of the higher elevations with orographic lift. As a result, snow showers will likely continue in the ridges and northwest PA.
149 PM PST Tue Nov 29 2022 An upper trough pattern over the western U.
(Rest of tonight) This evening the area remains in the warm/moist air mass ahead of an advancing trough/front. A strengthening low-lvl jet is anticipated to cross the area overnight and transport increased low-lvl moisture into the region atop sfc moisture where dew points are already climbing into the low/mid 60s.
1032 PM CST Tue Nov 29 2022 (The rest of tonight) A strong cold front is pushing east of the CWA this evening. Much cooler air and gusty northwest winds are present across the area. Temperatures will fall below freezing in most locations tonight, with lows ranging from the mid 20s to low 30s.
High pressure ridges southwest through the western Atlantic, across Florida and into the Gulf of Mexico producing partly cloudy skies for the first half of the day. An area of low pressure moves through the Great Lakes with the associated cold front extending south through the Mississippi River Valley. This front will push through Florida later today bringing increasing cloudiness, scattered showers and an isolated storm or two, with the highest chances over the Nature Coast.
925 PM PST Tue Nov 29 2022 A trough pattern over the West will bring cool, unsettled weather through the upcoming weekend.
1130 PM CST Tue Nov 29 2022 Key Messages: - Cold front has passed through the region, with much colder temperatures moving in.
353 AM EST Wed Nov 30 2022 Gusty winds and showers will accompany a cold front today. The area will be in the warm sector for much of the morning, before a cold front pushes through late this morning. As a result, snow showers will likely continue in the ridges and northwest PA.
Mostly dry conditions expected through the overnight hours with a strong cold front well to our north moving southward into the southeast US tonight. Given the low confidence, along with the winds being slightly stronger tonight, have kept out the mention of patchy fog tonight and into Wednesday morning. Overnight lows will range from the low 60s across the north to mid to upper 60s across the south.
(Today and tonight) Surface ridging around 1032mb was settling into the region early this morning leading to colder temperatures than what we have observed the past several mornings. However, this ridge will quickly slide to the east this afternoon returning surface winds to a southerly direction.
1044 PM CST Tue Nov 29 2022 (This evening through Wednesday) Early afternoon observations from the West Texas Mesonet show a cold front along a curved line from Childress to north of Vigo Park to Dawn to near Logan, NM, Endee. The cold front will continue to push through the area this afternoon, bringing breezy winds.
1030 PM CST Tue Nov 29 2022 (This afternoon through Wednesday night) 500mb RAP initialization shows the upper trough centered across Colorado this afternoon. After a mild day with high temperatures reaching the mid 70s for most thanks to downsloping westerly winds, high pressure building southeastward through the central Plains will push a cold front through overnight. Temperatures will tumble back below freezing north of I-20 with lows in the 30s and 40s to the south. Northerly flow behind the front will be short lived as the high pressure center moves into the Mississippi Valley and southeasterly winds return Wednesday night. Lows will be a little bit warmer as a result, with freezing temperatures limited to the far northern zones and the higher elevations.
1258 AM EST Wed Nov 30 2022 Gusty winds and showers will accompany a cold front today. The area will be in the warm sector for much of the morning, before a cold front pushes through during the late morning hours. As a result, snow showers will likely continue in the ridges and northwest PA.
1027 PM MST Tue Nov 29 2022 Water vapor shows trof axis over the Plains, with rather flat upper ridge over the western CONUS ahead of trof offshore the Pac NW. At the surface, high pressure continues to build southeast from ALTA and MT with gusty northwest winds through the Northern Plains.
1149 PM CST Tue Nov 29 2022 (Rest of tonight) This evening the area remains in the warm/moist air mass ahead of an advancing trough/front. A strengthening low-lvl jet is anticipated to cross the area overnight and transport increased low-lvl moisture into the region atop sfc moisture where dew points are already climbing into the low/mid 60s.
800 AM EST Wed Nov 30 2022 Gusty winds and showers with a cold frontal passage today will be followed by isolate snow showers in northwest PA and higher elevations overnight.
634 AM EST Wed Nov 30 2022 A cold front moving through the Ohio Valley this morning will usher in a much cooler airmass to the region today into Thursday. The cold front is moving into our far western FA attm and will push quickly east across our area through mid morning. By late afternoon, temperatures will range from the lower 30s in the northwest to the upper 30s across our southeast. As the high moves away, a shift to a southerly flow pattern is expected.
501 AM MST Wed Nov 30 2022 High pressure moving across eastern Montana with clear skies and very cold temperatures over most of the region. The exception is the far northeast corner of the state where low clouds linger are keeping temperatures warmer. Upper ridge will be building across the state today as a trof digs off the Pacific Northwest. Warmer temperatures are expected mainly across the southern zones today and Thursday in the vicinity of this low. On Thursday the moisture streaming off the Pacific around the western trof will be crossing the divide into north central Montana.
However, radar now shows convection ahead of the anticipated cold front taking on a more linear nature and quickly moving into western GA. As noted in the past few forecasts high shear/low CAPE set ups during the Southeast cooler season can be more impactful than expected. The main line of storms is progged to be south of the CWA by late this afternoon with the cold front south of the CWA by early this evening. Clear skies and north winds will translate into low temperatures tonight near and below freezing for areas north of I20. Tomorrow will also feel cooler than we have felt recently.
517 AM CST Wed Nov 30 2022 (Today through Thursday Night ) To begin the period, a cold front has moved through the state, dropping temperatures and bringing gusty winds and drier air. By Thursday night, a cold front is expected to be near the state, increasing PoPs across the state.
The light winds will be short-lived as the ridge slides east and we see a tightening pressure gradient again.
High pressure will build in from west to east this morning and should gradually clearly skies.
Otherwise, a stiff east to southeast wind has kept temperatures in the upper 70s to near 80 degrees with dew points in the lower to mid 70s. A frontal boundary associated with this low will sag southeastward and across the Florida Peninsula and stall. Meanwhile, in the low to mid levels, mean layer ridging will flatten in response to the aforementioned potent system to our north but then get reinforced by the next ridge moving out of the Central Plains.
201 AM MST Wed Nov 30 2022 Current surface map places high pressure across eastern Montana into western South Dakota. Upper trough over the Upper Midwest continues to move east today as next upper trough digs into the Pacific Northwest. Flat upper ridge will bring warmer temperatures to the area today and Thursday, with low level thermal profiles peaking Thursday afternoon.