Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
624 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2020 Strong area of low pressure was pushing into southern Illinois early this afternoon. Some wind gusts of 30 to 40 mph still occurring over south central MO just west of the low, while the gradient is a bit more relaxed further west, but still gusting 25 to 35 mph. Temperatures were ranging from the upper 40s in the east to the low to mid 60s out west where is was becoming sunny.
Models have upper ridging over the forecast area tonight and Sunday. The low level winds should pretty much be normal drainage patterns tonight. For Sunday's high temperatures, readings should be about 2-5 C warmer than today's highs. This feature will produce a chance of rain/snow showers over the higher terrain, in the evening hours, with a slight chc across the plains. There is just enough moisture, embedded in the flow, to keep a slight chc of showers over the higher terrain. Highs will be warmer, over nern CO, with readings from 75 to 80 degrees. For Wed through Fri and upper level ridge will build into the area.
/issued 429 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2020/ Latest surface analysis revealed a low over southern Indiana with a cold front extending southeast to north Alabama to Mobile Bay to Mississippi mouth to the northwest Gulf. In addition, ridge of high pressure mainly from Hudson Bay to the northern Plains to Texas. Upper air analysis showed a upper level low over southern Illinois.
Lines of showers and thunderstorms rotated southeast from the upper low across the eastern Tennessee Valley this evening producing some large hail and brought some strong winds in a few of the stronger storms.
235 AM MDT Sun Apr 26 2020 Synoptic Setup: Hot high pressure lies bottled up over the Desert Southwest and is making its way north into the Intermountain West. Successive weak ridges and troughs appear to be barreling through this flow making days either warm, clear, and dry or seasonable, variably cloudy, and showery. Today through tonight, weak trough will scamper across the northern side of the International Border but pull stronger downslope winds along down south of it in northeast Montana. These gusty winds will quickly mix out any moisture in the lower atmosphere lowering MinRH and then they will combine with the low relative humidity to cause firewx problems.
The marine layer will become more organized overnight and into Sunday, resulting in cooler temperatures.
1132 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2020 A mid/upper trough over the Middle Mississippi Valley today will drift east/northeast into the Ohio Valley area tonight with northwest mid/upper flow prevailing across the Central Plains.
130 AM EDT Sun Apr 26 2020 Strong low pressure system brings rain tonight and Sunday. High pressure Monday. Another low pressure crosses by midweek. A bit of a lull in showers across the center of the forecast area will fill back in over the next several hours as the center of the low continues to pivot through the Ohio River Valley. Slow moving system finally exits Sunday evening, perhaps ending as a little wet snow in the highest elevations. A brief break in the action Monday courtesy of transient high pressure.
A cold front that brought a band of rain showers across the forecast area has moved off to the east, bringing most of the rain showers with it. especially over the lower elevations. Sunday looks to be a pleasant day with mostly clear skies and warmer temperatures. Temperatures in the lower elevations will be mostly in the mid 60s to mid 70s, and mostly 50s to mid 60s in the mountains. This period of dry and warmer weather will be short lived as another Pacific cold front moves into the region on Monday, which will bring another chance of rain showers.
Highs on Sunday are forecast to range in the lower to mid 70s inland and in the upper 70s to near 80 degrees along the coast. Lows Sunday night will be cooler in the mid 40s to around 50 degrees over most locations to the north of I-10, with readings in the lower to mid 50s near the coast. Northwesterly winds may pick up to 10-15 knots with a few higher gusts late Sunday morning into Sunday afternoon as high pressure builds into the region.
The rain will end this afternoon as high pressure moves in in the wake of a low pressure system.
306 AM CDT Sun Apr 26 2020 After some patchy fog early this morning, a very pleasant day is in store for southeast Kansas and the Missouri Ozarks as high pressure settles overhead. The high will drift east of the area tonight as a weak wave in the flow approaches the area from the west.
354 AM EDT Sun Apr 26 2020 Rain will continue through the day, with the passage of low pressure. Rain will continue through the day as the upper low transitions over the region, with total QPF amounts expected between 0. The higher amounts will generally cover the southern half of the forecast area.
Deep dry layer sub the cloud bases for today, and pcpn will have a hard time getting trough that, let alone a NST. Good fetch of low level moisture transport to the feed the low pressure system as it moves in, with PWs +1". A weak trough of low pressure will push slowly southeast into the area Sunday.
Above normal temperatures will continue Monday with a dryline forming just east of the mountains and tracking into the western Permian Basin south to the lower Trans Pecos late Monday afternoon. A weak disturbance combined with intense heating along the dryline and higher terrain could generate a few late day thunderstorms in the lower Trans Pecos region and along a weak cold front in the extreme northeast Permian Basin.
The northeast winds will result in slightly cooler temperatures across the area under mostly cloudy skies. As the high pressure continues to move east Sunday night, a weak mid to upper level ridge will move through the area which will start the warming trend by Monday.
141 AM EDT Sun Apr 26 2020 [Through 06Z Monday] Best chance of developing MVFR CIGS is at GNV where 1500-2500 ft CIGS may push off the NE GOMEX and into the TAF site in the 09-12z time frame ahead of cold front. An upper trough over the Ohio Valley with push an associated cold front across se Ga/ne Fl late tonight. Drier and slightly cooler air will spread across the area behind the front. Temperatures will fall into the low/mid 60s tonight. Highs on Sunday will reach the upper 70s over interior se Ga to the low/mid 80s across ne Fl and coastal Georgia.
247 AM EDT Sun Apr 26 2020 Upper trough from the Midwest into the N Gulf this morning pushing surface cold front through the Deep South and FL Peninsula today.
229 AM MDT Sun Apr 26 2020 An upper trough will progress across southern Canada and into North Dakota by this evening.
A dry cold front will move through the area during the next 24 hours, bringing in its wake a drier airmass and mostly clear skies.
ERVIN Monday, a trough of low pressure will be sweeping across the upper Midwest as the high pressure ridge moves off to the east. Scattered light rain showers are expected Monday, as a weak low develops in the plains and brings a warm front into the area.
Meanwhile, latest sfc analysis maps show another frontal boundary over northern Florida, with its parent trough/low complex over the PHI/PA region. For this evening, models migrate the aforementioned trough/low complex into the NW Atlantic and pushing the associated frontal boundary further south through the Florida peninsula, and clearing SoFlo by Monday early in the morning. A drier air mass will descend upon the area in the wake of the FROPA, with high pressure establishing across the region. Winds veer to the NNW/N by Monday afternoon, supporting the drier and slightly cooler air advection from the north, and dropping POPs into single digits. Thus, expect a very nice day weather-wise on Monday with afternoon highs remaining in the low-mid 80s.
The main difference noted with the models is a warmer thermal profile on the 00Z GFS compared to the other guidance owing to a northward displacement of the 850 mb low. Surface/min temperatures >32F should limit accumulation, but the latest hires ensemble data along with NBM/WPC guidance supports a coating-1" over the highest terrain in Potter, Tioga, N. Highs will be a slightly warmer vs.
The patchy fog in the forecast grids hasn't really materialized though the low spot around Millard Airport has continued with reduced visibility through the night.
Lines of showers and thunderstorms rotated southeast from the upper low across the eastern Tennessee Valley this evening producing some large hail and brought some strong winds in a few of the stronger storms. Showers will be mostly confined to the higher elevation, but could move into the valley for a short period in the afternoon. ABM Chattanooga Airport, TN 58 44 69 50 74 / 20 20 0 10 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 56 42 66 46 72 / 50 40 0 10 10 Oak Ridge, TN 56 42 68 46 73 / 50 40 0 10 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 54 40 63 43 70 / 60 60 10 10 10.
Skies were mainly clear with predawn temps in the lower 40s to the lower 50s.
Mostly clear skies will develop after the rain ends, and highs should reach the low to mid 60s.
As a result, despite southerly surface winds and modest mixing this afternoon, the increased cloud cover will likely halt the rise of temperatures during the afternoon with highs topping out in the low/mid 70s.
1039 PM MDT Sat Apr 25 2020 Current surface analysis shows low pressure over western MN, with high pressure centered over the central Rockies. Mainly quiet weather is expected through the rest of the weekend and into Monday as the ridge slowly moves east across the plains. Southerly winds on Sunday will bring warmer air into the region, with highs mostly in the mid 60s to mid 70s, warmest to the south and east of the Black Hills.
Northwest winds will be gusty at times today behind a cold front. Breezy conditions expected through the remainder of the afternoon as a cold front approaches the region. Expect high temperatures in the upper 70s to low 80s, with overnight lows in the lower 50s for most areas.
After Sunrise, an upstream trough and associated cold front is forecast to move through North Dakota.
1250 AM EDT Sun Apr 26 2020 Rain will continue through the day, with the passage of low pressure. A lobe of energy has swung around the base of the low and will cross Ohio overnight. Rain will continue through the day as the upper low transitions over the region, with total QPF amounts expected between 0. The higher amounts will generally cover the southern half of the forecast area.
Highs will only reach into the lower to mid 50s Plateau and the lower 60s southwest.
After those showers end a high pressure ridge will bring fair wx today.
These downsloping winds combined with slightly warmer above surface temperatures will help to warm surface temperatures about 10 degrees above what was experienced yesterday with most locations ending up in the 80's. This will help to keep temperatures warmer overnight only dropping into the 50's to low 60's. A few passing clouds Breezy and warmer today Above average lows /WCI The main theme in the extended remains the heat, near record levels early in the week and at or above record values to close out the week. Much further to our north, a strong upper level jet emerging from the northern (and Canadian) Rockies will carve out a closed low over the Midwest into the Great Lakes mid-week.
Clouds will also be increasing from the west with the approach of the next much stronger short wave trough.
Dew points will rise into the lower to mid 40s within this area of higher moisture. This will nudge the higher dew point eastward as well. This looks to be a warm day beneath the ridge with highs nearing 80F most areas.
High temperatures will reach the low 80s in the mountains to near 100 degrees across the lowest valleys of northern Arizona. Other than that look for some increase in cloud cover overnight and on sunday associated with the passing trough.
The sunshine will boost temperatures into the upper 50s to lower 60s, except notably cooler near Lake Michigan where highs will struggle to reach 50 degrees. Patchy frost may form early Monday morning as temperatures fall into the lower to middle 30s.
1127 PM MDT Sat Apr 25 2020 Partly cloudy skies and a few showers will continue through the afternoon, tapering off as the sun sets over the High Plains and the adjacent high terrain. Monday and beyond will be generally and warm as a westerly flow turns to the northwest as a ridge of high pressure builds aloft.
With light winds under weak ridging aloft, temperatures will soar into the mid to upper 70s.
1136 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2020 Strong area of low pressure was pushing into southern Illinois early this afternoon. Some wind gusts of 30 to 40 mph still occurring over south central MO just west of the low, while the gradient is a bit more relaxed further west, but still gusting 25 to 35 mph. Temperatures were ranging from the upper 40s in the east to the low to mid 60s out west where is was becoming sunny.
For 06Z Aviation discussion below Upper trough currently moving into the area will slowly move east over the next 24 hours.
Lows tonight are expected to fall into the 60s, except for the lower 70s at the beaches with clouds increasing late. As high pressure moves eastward tonight into Monday, low level moisture will increase as southeast flow develops. High temperatures on Monday will mainly be in the low to mid 90s, except for the 80s near the coast.
Web cams show that the dense visibility has become more widespread and the high res models show the low visibilities hanging through sunrise.
This high pressure will gradually move eastward through the day today with winds becoming southerly.
356 AM CDT Sun Apr 26 2020 A secondary mid level impulse will rotate around the western periphery of the main h50 trof today, leading to a continuation of the showers ongoing over sw IL/sw IN/nw KY. The entire system will slowly pull off to the east later today, allowing high pressure to make a brief appearance tonight/early Monday.
Sunday will be mostly dry but portions of the Tennessee Valley could see a few showers during the afternoon as the main upper trough continues to depart east. Otherwise, dry weather will persist through Monday as high pressure builds into the region.
Cooler surface temperatures along the North Shore of Lake Superior may lead to spotty light freezing rain chances Sunday night, but thinking this threat is largely for the higher terrain. A trough of low pressure will slide through Monday bringing rain to the area with around 1/4" of QPF expected. After this wave crosses, a low pressure system will spin up across SD and move east and deepen as it enters MN. An upper level vort max and trough wil be the catalyst for the strengthening of this system. There's even a possibility with this feature that all of the energy dives south with the upper level trough and leaves us high and dry.
Overnight, a cold front will move into the region from the north. High temperatures will be cooler, yet remain above normal, ranging from the mid-70s to low-80s.
Gradient wind remains gusty this evening as an upper level low swings east across the Ohio Valley. MVFR, IFR CSV, ceilings just after 26/06Z should remain quasi stationary thru at least 26/21Z as broad upper level troughing moves and then shifts eastward of mid state region.
Large area of strong high pressure remains centered just west of James Bay early this morning. with low level ridging extending into the Northern Great Lakes. Only some high mainly thin cirrus lingers over our CWA along the northern periphery of the moisture shield associated with low pressure working its way thru the Ohio Valley. Surface ridging will hold over Michigan and will also strengthen thru tonight. A fairly benign weather pattern continues across the northern Great Lakes region as high pressure remains overhead. Winds will continue to be fairly light, but with a southerly component later in the day Monday as a weak upper level trough approaches from the west associated with a low pressure system over Hudson Bay.
Low temperatures are expected to fall into the middle 20s to around 30 north, and in the lower to middle 30s.
Slight anticyclonic curvature will move overhead Sunday with a flattening ridge approximating zonal westerly flow, and leading into the warming trend ahead. At the same time for the first half of the week, a strong upper level ridge will build into the western CONUS. This upper ridge will then slide east through the week leading to a warmup in temperatures. Height anomalies at 500mb are topping out at +100m by mid week with this ridge.
221 AM EDT Sun Apr 26 2020 Strong low pressure system finally exits later this evening and tonight. High pressure Monday. Another low pressure crosses by midweek. With low pressure moving through the Ohio Valley and waves of showers expected to continue, area of attention turns to the SE Ohio counties. Weak frontogenesis will persist in rotating into this area, and this is where the highest QPF amounts should be going forward. Low pressure center/occluded front/pressure trough exits and will finally take rain with it. Cooler readings expected Sunday night. Clouds likely linger in the mountains through the end of the near term with the low level saturated thermal trough in place. Slow moving system finally exits Sunday evening, perhaps ending as a little wet snow in the highest elevations. A brief break in the action Monday courtesy of transient high pressure.
Winds come back around to the east on Sunday and then the southeast on Sunday night, and this should allow for slightly warmer temperatures across the area. Look for another cool night on Sunday night with lows once again in the 50s inland and in the 60s at the coast, but these readings will be a couple degrees warmer than what the area will experience tonight. High pressure should be over MS region Sunday night and will continue to track east overnight, allowing southerly wind flow to return.
510 AM CDT Sun Apr 26 2020 A deep upper level trough with an associated closed low will continue to migrate slowly eastward into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys.
Dry and Warmer. Thus, look for highs today and lows tonight slightly warmer than those more usual for late April.
A secondary mid level impulse will rotate around the western periphery of the main h50 trof today, leading to a continuation of the showers ongoing over sw IL/sw IN/nw KY. The entire system will slowly pull off to the east later today, allowing high pressure to make a brief appearance tonight/early Monday.
631 AM CDT Sun Apr 26 2020 The cyclone responsible for the last few days of precip has largely moved east of the region, with all but our eastern Illinois counties free of clouds. This should keep temperatures in our west a bit warmer than what we're seeing this morning, with temps in our east cooler due to a lack of cloud coverage. Return flow will intensify on Monday as a weak cyclone moves through the upper Midwest.
347 AM MDT Sun Apr 26 2020 Upper ridge axis currently centered from west-central North Dakota through western South Dakota early this morning. Strong warm air advection centered around 700 mb early this morning as thermal ridge spreads over the northern Plains. As warm front moves eastward this morning, expect highs today in the 70s across most of the region. Monday looks to be warmer as thermal ridge pushes further northward during the day. Additionally, our forecast area will be favorably located within the left exit region of the jet and the right entrance region of a developing jet streak on the eastern flank of the trough axis.
Deep dry layer sub the cloud bases for today, and pcpn will have a hard time getting trough that, let alone a NST. Good fetch of low level moisture transport to the feed the low pressure system as it moves in, with PWs +1".
1005 AM EDT Sun Apr 26 2020 The upper trough sitting across the region has opened up while continuing to slide east/northeast across the OH/TN Valley. Best shower chances will be near the higher terrain, but some brief precipitation could impact the airport and degrade flying conditions into the IFR range. ABM Chattanooga Airport, TN 58 44 71 50 76 / 20 20 0 0 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 56 42 67 48 74 / 50 40 0 0 10 Oak Ridge, TN 58 42 68 48 74 / 40 40 0 0 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 55 40 63 43 71 / 50 60 0 10 10.
The 850 mb ridge that is extending from Texas, northward into the central Plains, will be moving equatorward this morning , and allowing troughing of the height/pressure field over western Nebraska into eastern Colorado. Between the brief period of downslope flow and insolation, models take surface temperatures to around 10 to 15 degrees warmer today than yesterday. Mild overnight lows in the 50s east, are contrast by slightly cooler 40s in the west. The overall trend is for much warmer weather in the coming week.
A cold front will move southward tonight and transition winds from a westerly or southwesterly direction to a northwest or northerly direction. Meanwhile, latest sfc analysis maps show another frontal boundary over northern Florida, with its parent trough/low complex over the PHI/PA region. For this evening, models migrate the aforementioned trough/low complex into the NW Atlantic and pushing the associated frontal boundary further south through the Florida peninsula, and clearing SoFlo by Monday early in the morning. A drier air mass will descend upon the area in the wake of the FROPA, with high pressure establishing across the region. Winds veer to the NNW/N by Monday afternoon, supporting the drier and slightly cooler air advection from the north, and dropping POPs into single digits. Thus, expect a very nice day weather-wise on Monday with afternoon highs remaining in the low-mid 80s.
Northwest winds will be gusty at times today behind a cold front. A dry cold front will move through the area during the next 24 hours, bringing in its wake a drier airmass and mostly clear skies.
50 inch with the highest totals over the southern tier zones. The main difference noted with the models is a warmer thermal profile on the 00Z GFS compared to the other guidance owing to a northward displacement of the 850 mb low. Surface/min temperatures >32F should limit accumulation, but the latest hires ensemble data along with NBM/WPC guidance supports a coating-1" over the highest terrain in Potter, Tioga, N. Highs will be a slightly warmer vs.
High temperatures will reach the low 80s in the mountains to near 100 degrees across the lowest valleys of northern Arizona. A flat ridge of high pressure will move over the area today resulting in continued warming.
After patchy morning fog, brief high pressure ridging will lead to pleasant weather today with daytime temperatures similar to yesterday. Another weak cold front arrives early Monday with scattered showers, especially across north-central Idaho and west-central Montana.
After some patchy fog early this morning, a very pleasant day is in store for southeast Kansas and the Missouri Ozarks as high pressure settles overhead. The high will drift east of the area tonight as a weak wave in the flow approaches the area from the west.
The DPVA is providing just enough forcing for ascent to give us these sprinkles which are falling into a dry low level air mass behind a cold front. Look for highs in the mid 70s north to the lower 80s south.
645 AM EDT Sun Apr 26 2020 An area of low pressure and accompanying frontal system will move east across the area this morning. A secondary cold front will cross the region this evening.
721 AM EDT Sun Apr 26 2020 MVFR/IFR cigs/vsbys along with some widely scattered SHRA/TSRA from KSRQ south will impact the terminals through mid to late morning ahead of a cold front. /issued 247 AM EDT Sun Apr 26 2020/ Upper trough from the Midwest into the N Gulf this morning pushing surface cold front through the Deep South and FL Peninsula today.
Otherwise, VFR conditions expected for the next 24 hours with high pressure in control. Lows tonight are expected to fall into the 60s, except for the lower 70s at the beaches with clouds increasing late. As high pressure moves eastward tonight into Monday, low level moisture will increase as southeast flow develops. High temperatures on Monday will mainly be in the low to mid 90s, except for the 80s near the coast.