Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
/issued 714 PM EDT Wed Oct 18 2017/ Showers continue to spread across the area as a cold front boundary settles over South Florida. model and satellite data show a mid/upper lvl trough over the eastern seaboard slowly migrating into the Atlantic waters, while an associated sfc cold front continues to move across South Florida. A drier pattern will begin establishing on Thursday as high pressure begins to build across the region in the wake of the FROPA.
Winds will not be as strong tomorrow, as at the surface we will have weak ridging and winds will not be as strong aloft so that even though we should mix fairly well, the speeds are not there to mix down. The dry and warm weather pattern that has dominated over the Northland for the last few days will continue through the day Friday as high pressure remains in control, which will be situated over the eastern one-third of the United States. However, we finally start to see a break in the flow pattern as a longwave trough develops over the Pacific Northwest.
Best chances of thunderstorms today will be over the Guadalupe Mtns and adjacent Plains per the high resolution HRRR. A strong trof will move in from the Pacific NW into the Plains over the weekend.
00z models are in good agreement that an upper level ridge will build quickly across the region. Due to this, raised the high temperatures anywhere from 3 to 5F. It looks like the high temperatures will be near 70 north of Interstate 94 and in the lower and mid 70s elsewhere.
Surface analysis showing cold front remaining north from near Chadron to Newcastle to Sheridan to south central Montana this afternoon. Attention turns to Thursday as another low pressure system tracks into the northern Rockies. Quite a mild day with prefrontal warming ahead of the approaching cold front.
Expect lows ranging from the low to upper 50's, bringing temps within a few degrees of normal for most locations. The exception being the eastern coastal zones who will see temps hold in the lower 60's. Deep layer high pressure is forecast to build over the Southeastern states through the end of the work week.
1058 PM PDT Wed Oct 18 2017 Moderate precipitation will continue to fall tonight into Thursday as a low pressure system slowly sags through the region.
335 AM EDT Thu Oct 19 2017 A weak cold front will push across the forecast area this afternoon. High pressure will quickly build back over the area and linger through the weekend. A weak cold front across SERN WI will move across the forecast area this afternoon. High pressure quickly builds back over the forecast area tonight and will remain anchored over the area into weekend. The short term begins with high pressure centered in southwest PA and extending over the Ohio Valley. The airmass will be dry and there will be an upper ridge in place across the region.
One exception will be far northwest Montana along the Canadian border where a warm front will bring some light rain. By late this evening, a moist cold front will begin pushing into central Idaho/northwest Montana, and continue eastward reaching the Divide by late Friday morning.
348 AM EDT Thu Oct 19 2017 A dry cold front is beginning to march across the Great Lakes as advertised with little in the way of even clouds with it.
A dry period will continue through Thursday night as a southwest flow aloft slowly develops across the Western High Plains downstream of an advancing trough axis in the Desert Southwest. Although this will create a gradual increasingly difluent flow aloft across the high plains, it will remain generally weak. Expect lows down into the lower to mid 50s(F) tonight. Southwest Kansas will have a windy end to the week as the lee troughing continues to deepen in Colorado.
A building upper level ridge moves to the east of the area Friday with a deepening upper trough moving into the Pacific Northwest/Great Basin region.
538 AM EDT Thu Oct 19 2017 High pressure will remain over the eastern conus through the upcoming weekend.
1130 PM MDT Wed Oct 18 2017 Overview: 1019 mb high pressure (centered over southwest SD/northwest NE at 19Z) will build southward into the Tri-State region this afternoon through tonight. Through Tonight: Expect 0 chance for precipitation through tonight with ridging aloft and an extremely dry airmass characterized by dewpoint depressions on the order of 60-65F this afternoon.
429 AM CDT Thu Oct 19 2017 A shifting upper level pattern and returning southerly flow in the low levels continue this morning as temperatures are running some 5-10 degrees warmer compared to 24 hours ago. Water vapor imagery bears out this shift with an upper ridge axis now oriented east of the Rockies down across the Southern Plains and into our region. This thin cirrus will not have much effect on daytime temperatures as highs will still manage the lower 80s areawide as abundant sunshine is expected once again today. This warmer air mass will also produce noticeably warmer overnight temperatures compared to earlier in the week.
Mostly sunny skies and very warm today with high temperatures ranging from the low to mid 80s near the coast to the upper 80s to lower 90s across the west. Low temperatures tonight will be in the 60s, except for the lower 70s near the coast, under partly cloudy skies.
419 AM EDT Thu Oct 19 2017 Strong ridging will continue to hold over the region through Friday with heights continuing to build. Overnight lows Thursday night will remain chilly with lows into the upper 30s to around 40 with ridges staying closer to the upper 40s. An anomalously strong upper ridge will be over the southeast CONUS as the period starts, providing dry and mild weather for the local area.
640 AM EDT Thu Oct 19 2017 High pressure will remain over the eastern conus through the upcoming weekend.
Little change in area weather through the forecast period with high pressure continuing to dominate.
108 AM EDT Thu Oct 19 2017 High pressure will maintain dry and warm weather through the weekend. High pressure will maintain dry and warm weather. The building high pressure dome will continue to moderate temperatures through the weekend.
Combination of lift with the approaching trough and increase in lower to mid-level moisture should be sufficient to support a possibility of isolated showers by late this afternoon for the area west of a Sterling City to Ozona line. Temperatures will be above normal for the middle of October, especially with the lows tonight. Highs today are expected to be in the upper 70s to lower 80s, with lows tonight in the lower to mid 60s.
The flow aloft will start to increase late this afternoon and tonight as the trough axis shifts eastward across the state. The high will be well above the average of 64 but fall short of the record of 86 for this date. An increasing southwest flow aloft ahead of an upper level trough moving across the Pacific Northwest will bring warm temperatures Friday. A deepening lee side trough will result in windy conditions, mainly over the higher terrain.
405 AM EDT Thu Oct 19 2017 High pressure will maintain dry and warm weather through the weekend. High pressure will maintain dry and warm weather. The building high pressure dome will continue to moderate temperatures through the weekend.
252 AM EDT Thu Oct 19 2017 Strong ridging will continue to hold over the region through Friday with heights continuing to build. Overnight lows Thursday night will remain chilly with lows into the upper 30s to around 40 with ridges staying closer to the upper 40s.
339 AM CDT Thu Oct 19 2017 At the surface, high pressure off the Virginia coast extends southwestward into east Texas. An upper ridge is currently centered over the Great Plains States. High pressure at the surface and aloft will continue to move eastward over the next couple of days.
Winds will fall off only slightly at sunset, leading to warmer lows tonight.
625 AM EDT Thu Oct 19 2017 A weak cold front will push across the forecast area this afternoon. High pressure will quickly build back over the area and linger through the weekend. A weak cold front across SERN WI will move across the forecast area this afternoon. High pressure quickly builds back over the forecast area tonight and will remain anchored over the area into weekend. The short term begins with high pressure centered in southwest PA and extending over the Ohio Valley. The airmass will be dry and there will be an upper ridge in place across the region.
A dry period will continue through Thursday night as a southwest flow aloft slowly develops across the Western High Plains downstream of an advancing trough axis in the Desert Southwest. Although this will create a gradual increasingly difluent flow aloft across the high plains, it will remain generally weak. Expect lows down into the lower to mid 50s(F) tonight.
Skies will remain clear and winds light as high pressure continues to influence the region. Prior discussion below: Strong high pressure ridging will continue to prevail over the region through the period. /15/ The period will start off with ridging across the Southeast CONUS with a respective ridge axis oriented through the Mississippi River Valley in response to a digging upstream trough over the Pacific Northwest. Anomalous mid-level temperatures in the 90th percentile will help keep max temps warm in the low 80s across much of the area on Friday.
Upper level ridging in place over NW Gulf of Mexico will amplify over the next few days, in response to a powerful system over the eastern Gulf of Alaska moving towards the Panhandle and British Columbia coast. This system will induce troughing along the west coast and bring cooler temperatures and much needed precipitation to parts of this region. For the Tennessee Valley, a building ridge and higher heights/ thickness values should translate more nice weather for mid October. High temperatures this afternoon should warm into the lower to middle 70s.
410 AM CDT Thu Oct 19 2017 Skies were fair overnight with temperatures noticeably warmer overnight with temperatures in the mid 50s to lower 60s. a ridge of high pressure was over the region with troughing across the eastern and western United States. A weaker short wave trough was moving eastward this morning across New Mexico and extreme west Texas into Mexico. high pressure across the eastern United States was still ridging westward all the way into our area. So, we are generally just expecting a continued warmup today with clouds increasing mainly where the low level moisture gets established into Texas.
An upper level ridge of high pressure will meanwhile build eastward across much of the Gulf of Mexico and extend northward across our region through tonight. Highs today should trend a few degrees warmer across the region, with readings generally in the upper 70s to lower 80s.
455 AM EST Sun Feb 18 2018 Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb trough in the Pacific NW, zonal flow across the west half of the U. The trough in the Pacific NW digs southeast into the western U. by 12z Mon as a ridge retrogrades back towards the southeastern U. Potential for light to moderate snow and possibly significant freezing drizzle/rain accumulations Mon and Tue, but details are still being worked out. The second wave occurs Tue and Tue evening and is more of a classic freezing rain/drizzle event where temperatures aloft rise above freezing with sub-freezing temps at the surface.
/issued 349 PM EST Sat Feb 17 2018/ (Tonight-Sunday night): Surface and mid-level high pressure ridge remains over South Florida, providing relatively light winds. Lows may only be a degree or two warmer than they were this morning.
402 AM EST Sun Feb 18 2018 High pressure crosses today. Warm front Monday, and then a cold front midweek. Much of the precipitation has tapered off, with mainly areas of -dz across parts of the lowlands, with some -shsn still continuing across the higher terrain. Overnight, clouds will increase, along with chances for precipitation again, as a warm frontal boundary lifts north across the area. There could be a very brief period of freezing rain or drizzle across the northern mountains early Monday, but at this point it appears to be very marginal, with temps probably rising before much moisture moves into the area.
Frontogenetical forcing in the lower levels will overlap lift in the upper levels. A saturated dendritic growth zone, coupled with the strong lift suggest a fairly potent band of snow will setup somewhere between Interstate 94 and the International Border, with the Highway 2 corridor being most likely at this time to see the higher snowfall amounts. The latest model runs indicate less of a threat for freezing drizzle across the south and therefore elected to remove it from the forecast.
Monday A warm front will lift northward through much of the forecast area causing temperatures to rise into the 40s and 50s with 60s south of I-80. There is uncertainty on how far north the warm front will make it.
1134 PM CST Sat Feb 17 2018 Trough aloft this afternoon will move out of the region tonight, dragging with it the lingering light snow still across portions of western and central WI.
Since temps have already fallen to below freezing over good portion of the area, not thinking that fog will be much of an issue, though hires models still show some development in extreme north. Lightning data suggested a bit of thundersnow in northeast Knox County shortly before noon, which could explain the higher snow amounts there. High pressure will move over the area tonight, with a nice warmup starting Sunday as southerly winds kick in behind the high.
High pressure will ridge across the waters through the week, with light generally E/SE winds turning onshore in the afternoons.
303 AM EST Sun Feb 18 2018 A ridge of high pressure will keep the weather across eastern Kentucky dry today. The weather will become wet again tonight, as an area of low pressure moving northward through the Great Plains, drags a warm front across the Tennessee and Ohio Valley regions. Temperatures are going to be well above normal in the short term, as strong southerly flow along the west edge of a strong area of high pressure sets up across the region. Highs are expected to be in the mid to upper 50s today, and in the lower 70s for Monday. A warm front will lift north at the start of the period with some showers ongoing to start the day Monday. However, as the ridge over the eastern CONUS builds, heights will shoot upwards early in the week.
The low clouds will remain across the area for much of Sunday. The low clouds will remain across the area on Sunday, with ceilings improving to MVFR at the southern terminals by 19Z. Overnight tonight, we should see lee trough developing to the west, which will shift winds around to the southeast, with low level moisture surging north. We kept high temperatures tomorrow a few degrees cooler than today across the south due to increased cloud cover, but we should climb into the 70s.
/Issued 934 PM CST Sat Feb 17 2018/ Latest surface analysis indicates high pressure centered over Arkansas this evening with light and variable wind across much of our forecast area. Deepening trough through the Plains will result in veering low level wind overnight then strong southerly wind Sunday.
417 AM EST Sun Feb 18 2018 High pressure will allow for dry conditions across the region today. A warm front will then lift northward tonight into Monday bringing a return of precipitation to the region. Dry conditions will be present today with high pressure. As the high shifts to the east southerly flow will begin to develop allowing for temperatures to climb into the 40s to around 50. Additional rain chances will move in overnight and then push northwards on Monday associated with a warm frontal boundary and increase in moisture.
349 AM EST Sun Feb 18 2018 TODAY AND TONIGHT: Satellite imagery shows a weak disturbance/pocket of higher low level moisture traversing FL Straits this morning around the base of the ridge parked across the region. Last evening's sounding shows a robust subsident inversion at 5-6KFT due to the influence of the ridge, which models erode little as this feature moves through today.
Low pressure will deepen across eastern Colorado on Sunday, which will result in moisture return from southern and central Texas.
This being the lowest "measurable" amount. Also, there will be a strong pressure gradient across the Panhandles Sunday as low pressure builds in to southern parts of the Central plains which will result in strong winds.
429 AM EST Sun Feb 18 2018 High pressure will slide across the Ohio Valley today.
As we saturate the atmosphere from top down on Sunday evening, light snow will break out in the higher elevations in the early evening. Given the mild temperatures, snow should be limited to the higher terrain to start this event on Sunday evening with a few isolated showers in the valleys.
Showers and wind gusts to 40 mph are accompanying a cold front, which is oriented west-east just to the south of Boise. Elsewhere, snow showers will accompany an upper trough as it settles into the region. Another cold front will cross the region from the north tonight and bring modified arctic air to the region on Monday.
1247 AM EST Sun Feb 18 2018 A frontal boundary will remain in the region through Sunday then lift north of the area as a warm front Sunday night into Monday morning.
Strong mixing ahead of the front has brought well above normal warmth to the Pine Belt region again this afternoon with highs reaching the lower 80s. Given strong capping ahead of the front and weakening ascent with the departing trough, most rainfall is anafrontal and light in nature, although precipitable water values near 1. Warm advection associated with a building ridge over the southeast CONUS will support a few showers, but weak frontal lift will should only bring light rainfall amounts on average.
High pressure currently over the central US will slowly drift south and east of the region by Sunday morning.
Surface wise, a Western Atlantic ridge axis extends across central Florida and well into the Western Atlantic Ocean.
The tighter pressure gradient overhead this afternoon will weaken late this afternoon/this evening as the ridge of high pressure that has been over western SD glides across eastern SD and western MN by 00Z Sunday. The lighter winds will be short lived as low pressure nears from the west and we start of experience increased southeast winds after 06Z bring gusts nearing 15-20kts that will quickly slide to eastern SD (mainly Coteau area) by 12Z Sunday. While the potential still exists for light snow (less than 1in) and freezing drizzle (around a trace), the threat has shifted mainly north of the ND/SD border. Given the late arrival of the low/cold front, temperatures could still rise into the 40s over east central SD Sunday afternoon.
Surface analysis this afternoon places a cold front over portions of Central/Southern Mississippi and Northern Alabama. As of 2 PM CST, temperatures across the Mid-South are in the 40s at most locations with the exception of Monroe County, Mississippi where temperatures are still in the lower to middle 50s. Short term models indicate the downstream cold front will begin to return back north as a warm front on Sunday with rain chances increasing especially Sunday afternoon into Sunday night. Highs on Monday are expected to rise back into the lower to middle 70s.
As long as the light winds stay up, the lower levels will be mixed enough to minimize dense fog extent. Temperatures will remain above normal Today, but could see readings at the beaches about 8 to 10 degrees cooler than inland areas due to onshore flow and enhanced cloud cover. The front will lift back North Tonight, but surface ridging to the Northeast will keep an onshore flow. Monday: Mid/upper level high pressure will be centered just east of the Bahamas, with the ridge axis extending west northwestward into north central Florida. The mid/upper level ridge will pivot slowly northward through the day and overnight, with the mid/upper ridge axis shifting north of the region Monday night.
1149 PM CST Sat Feb 17 2018 Clouds are slowly clearing from west to east this afternoon with the clearing line just moved through the Highway 65 corridor as of 3 pm. A large upper level trough will develop and dig across the western U. In response, southerly winds will bring in rich Gulf Moisture northward with a deep fetch around the left side of a large upper level ridge of high pressure in the southwest Atlantic.
A cold front will move through the area Sunday night, bringing big changes to the weather forecast. At the same time, low-level moisture will remain trapped below 800mb, which will bring a good chance for drizzle and freezing drizzle to the area. Although most of the snow will remain northwest of the area, our area may still see a wintry mix of freezing drizzle, sleet, and light snow on the southern edge of the band.
While, high temperatures will be warmer than yesterday, weak cold air advection associated with a front dropping across the area from the northeast will keep high temperatures in the 60s. Tomorrow, upper level southwesterly flow sets up across the region as an upper level Pacific trough starts to drop down across the West Coast.
207 AM EST Sun Feb 18 2018 High pressure crosses today. Warm front Monday, and then a cold front midweek. Much of the precipitation has tapered off, with mainly areas of -dz across parts of the lowlands, with some -shsn still continuing across the higher terrain. Overnight, clouds will increase, along with chances for precipitation again, as a warm frontal boundary lifts north across the area. There could be a very brief period of freezing rain or drizzle across the northern mountains early Monday, but at this point it appears to be very marginal, with temps probably rising before much moisture moves into the area.
The front will sag south of the area by early tomorrow morning with brief high pressure moving in.
Hourly temperatures are warmer than forecasted at this point and were adjusted.
/issued 913 PM CST Sat Feb 17 2018/ As of 9 PM, radar and surface observations indicate the shallow cold front has continued to progress southward and extends roughly along Interstate 10. Behind the cold front, temperatures have already dropped into the upper 50s/low 60s. The inherited forecast indicated a slower southward progression of the surface cold front and current temperatures were already at or near forecast lows for the evening. /issued 401 PM CST Sat Feb 17 2018/ A shallow cold front extends from near Natchitoches southwest to near Lufkin where temperatures are in the mid 50s compared with Alexandria which reported 74 degrees last hour. The front will lift back to the north Sunday as a warm front which will be enough to sustain at least low end POPs early Sunday before precipitation comes to an end Sunday afternoon.
Forecast soundings support the potential for light freezing rain over the far north, if precipitation makes it there. The trough passing to the north tonight also will help push an Arctic front south through the area on Sunday, with gusty northwest winds and falling temperatures behind it. The main difference in the models is the position of the low- to midlevel baroclinic zone, which ultimately will dictate where the heaviest band of snow sets up.
By around 9z, lower vsbys should also affect the TAF sites with the lowest values most likely across the TLH to VLD area. Conditions, especially the lower cigs, will once again be slow to improve this morning. 02 UTC surface analysis shows a cold front across Central Alabama and into North Central Georgia. The weak front will stall across our area Sunday and then lift north as a warm front Sunday night into Monday. Highs will be in the upper 70s to low 80s Sunday and the lower to mid 80s Monday.