Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
303 AM MDT Fri Sep 8 2017 Upper ridge axis over the Eastern Great Basin will continue to slowly drift towards Colorado. Temperatures today will only be slightly warmer from yesterday's readings. The upper ridge axis will push east and grow over the state Saturday, allowing for warmer temperatures and continued northward transport of subtropical moisture for a repeat of afternoon and evening storms in the mountains. The plains will remain overall stable, however some lower level moisture may provide enough CAPE for isolated storms over the Palmer and Cheyenne ridges, as well as the far northeastern corner of the state.
These showers are in the NE quadrant of the upper low off the CA coast. Models similar in lingering upper low off the SoCal coast over the weekend as upper ridging builds into NorCal. This will keep a threat of afternoon showers/thunderstorms over the higher Sierra Nevada.
A low pressure system to the south was spinning moisture into the two state area. Low temps appear in the ball park with 50s and 60s except in the upper 40s across the higher elevations. This convection is caused by the combination of a moist southerly flow, daytime heating, and an upper level trof. The satellite imagery shows the upper level trof just entering southwest Oregon as of 1 pm. Models move the trof north and weaken it overnight. Thunderstorms should diminish overnight due to a loss of daytime heating and the weakening trof. the southwest flow will be in advance of a Pacific trof that will move across the area on Friday and Friday night.
500-300 mb troughing over Wrn Mexico lifting north will send intermittent mid to high level clouds into South Central TX over the next day or so. West of Highway 281, dewpoints early this morning have yet to show the daily fluctuations going forward as the weak easterly winds haven't pushed the low level moisture return that far west yet.
349 AM EDT Fri Sep 8 2017 An upper level trough extending from eastern Canada southwest into the Great Lakes will gradually move off to the east through Saturday. This will allow high pressure to build into the region from the north.
207 AM EDT Fri Sep 8 2017 High pressure with dry and cool weather for the remainder of the week. A rather tranquil fall like scenario with high pressure of Canadian origin continues to dominate our weather with mostly dry and cooler than normal conditions. This puts a track through the southern Appalachians towards the lower to middle Ohio Valley. High pressure over the area overnight will dissipate Friday, but a VFR day is still expected. A weak cold front arriving from the north Friday night may interfere with fog formation, as a northerly flow of drier air enters the middle Ohio Valley.
Today begins with Northeast Montana still under a long-wave upper level ridge. Tonight and Saturday, the ridge begins to break down from the west, with NE Montana remaining under the last vestiges of the ridge. With the wind turning southerly, and the thermal ridge riding across our area, expect most highs to rise into the 90s.
319 AM CDT Fri Sep 8 2017 As of 08z Friday morning, two weak mid level perturbations were working their way south and eastward down the eastern periphery of the H5 ridge. Short and medium range guidance suggests the wave itself will stay north of the CWA, as the H5 ridge axis builds across the central and southern Plains. At the surface, an area of low pressure was positioned across eastern CO.
The High Plains lee trough will deepen a bit today so breezy southerly/southeaster winds around 20 mph are expected, particularly in during the late morning and into the afternoon hours. The upper air pattern doesn't look that impressive with ridging to the west. Winds will be SE/S 10-15 kt early and then increase 15-25 kt as the lee trough deepens.
405 AM CDT Fri Sep 8 2017 Water vapor imagery shows a broad trough of low pressure over the eastern half over the United States this morning, with northwesterly flow aloft over the ArkLaTex. Today will be similar to or slight warmer than yesterday, as there are a couple of disturbances moving down the back side of this trough, which will slow the progression of the rebuilding ridge. The ridge will expand into and strengthen over Texas this weekend, acting as a protecting block from Hurricane Katia.
525 AM EDT Fri Sep 8 2017 Cool weather and shower chances are expected today under a low pressure trough. Dry weather is expected for the weekend under high pressure. Isolated to scattered showers are expected again today under an upper trough.
Will see an increase in mid/high clouds overnight as southwest flow aloft carries in moisture out ahead of a deepening trough digging into the High Plains.
359 PM CDT Tue Oct 29 2019 A vigorous upper level low pressure system remains on target to impact the OK and TX Panhandles tonight into Wednesday. Nevertheless, this upper level low pressure should get close enough to the area to warrant pops for tonight into Wednesday.
There is an overarching concern for nocturnal tornado threat immediately along the warm front as the air mass transitions to surface based influence in the presence of frontal convergent flow and deep layered moisture pooling. This will steadily transition to MVFR to IFR ceilings with deeper convection as warm front moves north from the gulf across the terminals tonight. KMCB is indicating a period of low level wind shear in the pre-frontal lift zone generally from 07Z-09Z prior to wind shift with warm frontal passage.
High pressure will build in through the end of the week with slowly moderating temperatures. A strong cold front continues to surge through the area late this morning, ushering an unseasonably cold airmass into the region. Snow showers continue along this boundary, as well as in the wake of the boundary in proximity to the upper low currently spinning along the UT/ID border region.
At 4 AM, a longwave trough remained in place over the Rockies, allowing clouds to stream north over the Plains.
Downward pva translation will evoke inverted trough development focused along the se TX coast.
301 PM CDT Tue Oct 29 2019 Sat vis imagery and sfc obs once again show an afternoon of stratus over much of West Texas and Southeast New Mexico, only this time a little more extensive, covering all of the lower terrain, w/fog mixed in in a lot of locations. On the synoptic scale, an upper trough is approaching the Four Corners, and should reach it by 12Z Wed. Overnight, a cold front will gradually move into the area, bringing freezing temps into the nrn tier of zones by daybreak. Forecast soundings for these areas continue to indicate moisture will be too shallow for anything but freezing drizzle, should a crossover occur. The upper trough will swing thru West Texas and Southeast New Mexico Wed, w/below-normal temps expected everywhere, especially north.
A warm front will slowly lift north across the area today as a deep layer western Atlantic ridge builds just east of the area. Best rain chances appear to be north of the I-10 corridor into Se Ga where strongest isentropic lift will be coupled with mid level impulses rotating around periphery of the Atlantic ridge. A range in afternoon temps expected ranging from highs of near 80 across Se Ga due to clouds/pcp while areas across the far south will be well into the 80s to the south of the warm front.
A 500mb trough will approaching the region through tomorrow, which will generate chances for rain overnight. Temperatures Below Freezing. Overnight Wednesday night, winds from the north will continue to bring cold air in West Central Texas, and low temperatures will likely drop below freezing.
1154 AM CDT Tue Oct 29 2019 Thin streamers of river/lake enhanced clouds remain across Lake Oahe this afternoon as cold air moves over the warmer waters. Canadian high pressure will build over the region from the northwest over the next couple of days. The high will keep the area mostly dry if a bit breezy this morning. Coupled with a deep upper trough digging into the Plains, much below normal temperatures are expected today and Wednesday.
A strong, persistent upper level ridge will linger over the eastern Pacific through at least the weekend.
Bitter cold for this time of year, with highs again Wednesday struggling to reach the freezing mark.
Tonight and Wednesday High pressure will help to keep the forecast area dry overnight and into Wednesday. Few clouds and generally light winds should allow for temperatures to fall into the teens tonight in far northern Wisconsin and the 20s across the rest of the area, with the exception of locations near Lake Michigan where it will be warmer.
The forecast overall is trending cooler as well, so accumulating frozen precipitation may be an issue at all three terminal by sunrise Wednesday morning. Some areas of patchy, light freezing drizzle will be possible in the northern South Plains and extreme southern Texas Panhandle through late morning Tuesday due to some weak isentropic ascent and sub-freezing surface temperatures. Clouds will keep temperatures quite chilly across the area on Tuesday, with highs only reaching the lower 40s. Surface winds will remain out of the east, before shifting to the north- northeast late Tuesday night as a strong ~1040mb anticyclone forms in the Intermountain West. The northerly winds will cause temperatures to drop quickly Tuesday night into early Wednesday, favoring the potential for freezing rain/drizzle across the central and northern parts of the CWA.
Cluster of storms in Colorado/Austin county moving slowly northeastward along the intersection of the warm front and cold front. Good deal cooler today near College Station/Caldwell today than Houston/Galveston separated by the boundary. Cold front should stall with some slight east to west wobbles then very slowly shift back west this evening but will probably be short lived as speed max evident around 200 mb tracks into the area and exit region impinges on the area with an increase in development of showers and isolated thunderstorms.
The east will have clouds linger longer and could keep them a bit warmer.
326 PM CDT Tue Oct 29 2019 A cold front currently sits across Northeast Arkansas and the Missouri Bootheel. Temperatures have dropped into the mid 50s behind the front while locations ahead of the front are in the lower to mid 60s. A warm front will lift north into North Mississippi by Wednesday morning and will bring a more unstable airmass into the area. Some storms could be severe with the warm front as it lifts northward through North Mississippi and West Tennessee. Then, an upper trof will begin to eject out of the Rockies by Wednesday afternoon. This will allow for the cold front to begin moving east across the area. A second round of severe weather will come ahead of the cold front Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday evening.
KHOB/KPEQ/KINK will see skies clear with gusty southeast winds around 20z as satellite imagery shows the low ceilings over SE NM breaking and motioning eastward. Used a blend of model guidance with KMAF seeing the cold front at 07z, followed by SE NM terminals and KINK/KPEQ around 09/10z.
Upper ridge folding will warm the high temperatures to near freezing tomorrow.
Reports of light freezing rain have come in from the advisory area and this will not be adjusted for the overnight period.
Very cold and dry air follows a strong cold front.
Winds will shift from easterly to more northerly as a cold front moves through between 06z and 12z, with wind speeds of 15 to 25 knots. /Issued 359 PM CDT Tue Oct 29 2019/ A vigorous upper level low pressure system remains on target to impact the OK and TX Panhandles tonight into Wednesday. Nevertheless, this upper level low pressure should get close enough to the area to warrant pops for tonight into Wednesday.
631 PM CDT Tue Oct 29 2019 Drizzle/rain showers and a few thunderstorms will continue to develop tonight into Wednesday as a trough approaches from the west. Some freezing and perhaps frozen precipitation will be possible at CSM/WWR. Current temperatures are just above freezing but may fall a few degrees overnight. The overall cloud depth will increase some tonight, but the thermal profile will generally support freezing drizzle/rain showers. Temperatures will hover around freezing over our western counties, so some minor ice accumulations will be possible.
433 PM MDT Tue Oct 29 2019 Current surface analysis shows cold front across the Central Plains, with high pressure centered across western MT. Upper level analysis shows trough moving southeast across the Rockies and Plains. Low pressure is located across southwest WY, with strong jet wrapping around the system from the Pacific NW to the southern Rockies and Plains.
1034 PM EDT Tue Oct 29 2019 Water vapor imagery highlights mean-layer ridging centered to the east of Florida. High pressure centered east of the northeastern states stretches southwest to the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Temperatures are in the lower to mid 80s with dewpoints in the mid 70s.
Temperatures are expected to remain above freezing through the duration of the event, so wintry precipitation is not expected at this time.
Strong cold front will move through the region overnight tonight and we will see area temperatures continue to fall over the next couple of days.
These morning rains are likely going to go a long way to reducing most of any severe weather threat we have tomorrow, however, with the approach of a cold front and shear involved, it can't be ruled out completely.
/issued 301 PM CDT Tue Oct 29 2019/ Sat vis imagery and sfc obs once again show an afternoon of stratus over much of West Texas and Southeast New Mexico, only this time a little more extensive, covering all of the lower terrain, w/fog mixed in in a lot of locations. On the synoptic scale, an upper trough is approaching the Four Corners, and should reach it by 12Z Wed. Overnight, a cold front will gradually move into the area, bringing freezing temps into the nrn tier of zones by daybreak. Forecast soundings for these areas continue to indicate moisture will be too shallow for anything but freezing drizzle, should a crossover occur. The upper trough will swing thru West Texas and Southeast New Mexico Wed, w/below-normal temps expected everywhere, especially north.
Temperatures will hover around freezing over our western counties, so some minor ice accumulations will be possible.
Highs during the day tomorrow will be approaching freezing.
Models are in pretty good agreement with an upper jet moving northeast from the lower Mississippi valley to the Tennessee valley late tonight and Wednesday. Chattanooga Airport, TN 60 69 65 69 / 40 90 90 90 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 57 70 64 69 / 10 80 80 100 Oak Ridge, TN 57 68 65 69 / 10 90 80 100 Tri Cities Airport, TN 51 73 60 71 / 10 70 80 100.
/issued 326 PM CDT Tue Oct 29 2019/ A cold front currently sits across Northeast Arkansas and the Missouri Bootheel. Temperatures have dropped into the mid 50s behind the front while locations ahead of the front are in the lower to mid 60s. A warm front will lift north into North Mississippi by Wednesday morning and will bring a more unstable airmass into the area. Some storms could be severe with the warm front as it lifts northward through North Mississippi and West Tennessee. Then, an upper trof will begin to eject out of the Rockies by Wednesday afternoon. This will allow for the cold front to begin moving east across the area. A second round of severe weather will come ahead of the cold front Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday evening.
The front and weak LL trough look to stay quasi-stationary today and most of tonight over the immediate vicinity. Overnight tonight, cold front finally gets on the move as plains upper low/trough works toward the OH valley. By 12z/Thu, front should be nearing the Plateau, then well east by midday as upper trough enters the MS/OH river valleys. Between now through Thu, most locations looking at 2 or so inches, with possibly up to 3 along the southern Plateau where inverted trough axis will spend some time. Upper trough moves pretty fast across the TN/OH valleys and with the front well east midday Thu, heavy rain will shutoff late in the day. Freezing morning temps are likely Fri-Mon. A cold front does pass Sat morning but it just reinforces cold air. A warm-up occurs ahead of an another approaching cold front on Tue.
Models are in pretty good agreement with an upper jet moving northeast from the lower Mississippi valley to the Tennessee valley late tonight and Wednesday. Isentropic ascent will increase overnight into the early morning hours as a warm front surges northwards from the northern Gulf Coast.
233 AM CDT Wed Oct 30 2019 Upper level trough axis shifts eastward today with a stretched out vort lobe moving by to our south. Temperatures above the surface 2-3 SD below climatology will keep temperatures near or just a tad above the freezing mark today. While afternoon temperatures may rise into the upper 30s to lower 40s, evening temperatures will fall back into the lower 30s and 20s once the sun goes down.
Shallow cold front is situated from roughly Columbus to Madisonville attm, and would expect some very slow southward movement later tonight. expanding south as the initial Pacific cold front moves toward the coast.
354 AM CDT Wed Oct 30 2019 Upper level trough axis extended from Hudson Bay to UT. A north- south upper level jet was on the west side of the trough. Upper level trough will shift east of the area Wed night. Upper level ridge over southwest Canada and the Pacific Northwest will move over the area Wed night.
The cold upper low currently centered over northeast Utah will continue to gradually shift southeast of the forecast area overnight. The High Wind Warning for Washington County canyons remain in effect. The canyon winds across the northern Wasatch Front have decreased in speed and the pattern will become less favorable through the night as the MSLP gradient gradually relaxes and the flow above the near surface turns more northerly in response to the southeast track of the upper low. Temperatures will remain on the cold side tomorrow with afternoon maxes struggling to rise above freezing across northern and central Utah.
Winter precipitation will continue to be possible across W/NW portions but will gradually spread E/SE as cold air at mid-levels associated with the upper trough begins to spread across the fa. It looks like freezing drizzle/rain and snow will be the main winter precipitation types. Despite only light amounts of winter precipitation expected, will keep the winter weather advisory due to the possibility of some freezing drizzle/rain which could accumulate on elevated surfaces causing a few problems in some areas. Temperatures will also fall and are expected to drop below freezing everywhere tonight with single digit wind chills possible in western portions of the fa.
351 AM CDT Wed Oct 30 2019 The much advertised freezing drizzle event is underway across the county warning area (CWA) this morning. Strong low-level theta-e advection will continue to steepen the nocturnal temperature inversion over the next several hours, resulting in vertical thermodynamic profiles favorable for light freezing drizzle and/or light freezing rain across the CWA into mid-morning. 00 on the lowest elevation scans. light snow and ice pellets in addition to the light freezing drizzle) due to the moist layer falling entirely below freezing. Black ice is expected to form on any wet surface tonight, especially on bridges and overpasses.
140 AM MDT Wed Oct 30 2019 Slow-moving upper trough persists across the central and western CONUS. Temperatures will be slightly warmer than yesterday's, with highs in the mid 20s to mid 30s, and lows 5 to 15 degrees above zero. Northwest flow develops behind the trough, and weak, short-lived ridging will result in a comparatively mild day for Halloween: highs will warm into the 40s.
The upper level trough axis extending from Colorado to northern Minnesota this morning will shift east into the Central Plains today. Ahead of this trough, southwesterly flow and lift are expected to produce a broad area of precipitation (rain/snow/mixed) from Texas to the Ohio Valley. The trough responsible for today's snowfall will drift east and deepen tonight.
High pressure in the eastern Pacific combines with a deep low pressure system over Utah/Colorado puts a chilly and dry north-northeast flow over the region. Some high level moisture will spill over the top of the ridge through the night and this was added to the forecast. Tobin 06Z TAFS: Some high clouds are moving down the Cascades at the time as some high level moisture spills over the ridge. The high thin clouds will slowly move across the forecast area overnight.
Areas of light freezing rain, freezing drizzle/fog have developed and will continue to expand in coverage. Light ice accumulations could cause slick spots to develop on area bridges and overpasses. 06Z TAF issuance Hazardous flying conditions likely through the morning as temperatures fall to near freezing with drizzle and fog lowering visibilities. Expect northeast winds to increase through the morning behind another cold front.
1026 PM MDT Tue Oct 29 2019 Current surface analysis shows cold front across the Central Plains, with high pressure centered across western MT. Upper level analysis shows trough moving southeast across the Rockies and Plains. Low pressure is located across southwest WY, with strong jet wrapping around the system from the Pacific NW to the southern Rockies and Plains.
High pressure in the eastern Pacific combines with a deep low pressure system over Utah/Colorado puts a chilly and dry north-northeast flow over the region. Some high level moisture will spill over the top of the ridge through the night and this was added to the forecast. Tobin 00Z TAFS: Some high clouds will have the potential to spill over the ridge of high pressure building into the region.
WWR/CSM still have a chance of experiencing some freezing drizzle mainly overnight. Reports of light freezing rain have come in from the advisory area and this will not be adjusted for the overnight period.
A cold front will move through the area tonight bringing breezy winds shifting to the north overnight.
300 AM CDT Wed Oct 30 2019 Water vapor imagery and upper level analysis show a positively tilted longwave trough located from Hudson Bay to the Four Corners region, placing the trough axis through North Dakota from northeast to southwest. At the surface, high pressure was analyzed over northern Wyoming. The upper level trough will slowly progress eastward through the day, with upper level ridging building over the Northern Rockies and associated low level warm air advection commencing downstream into the western Dakotas. This, along with clearing skies will give us slightly warmer temperatures this afternoon, but still well below late October normals. Upper level ridging will nudge into the Northern Plains tonight, with low level warm air advection continuing.
High temperatures will be coldest from Blackfoot to Idaho Falls to Rexburg and up to Island Park in the low 30s to mid 20s. Warmer temperatures are noted in the Magic Valley and in the Pahsimeroi Valley to the Wood River Valley with temperatures in the mid 40s for highs.
Southwest flow ahead of the low was sending scattered-broken deck of mid-cloud/altocumulus over our area. At the surface, a west to east ridge of high pressure was in place from near the SD/NE border into WI. For today, relatively quite conditions with increasing clouds ahead of that low which will be edging out into the high Central Plains.
Today, the base of the upper trough is forecast to track from Colorado into central Kansas.
Shallow cold front is situated from roughly Columbus to Madisonville attm, and would expect some very slow southward movement later tonight.
Deep layered ridging from the Atlantic extending southwest across the peninsula and into the eastern Gulf will remain in control today with very warm and muggy conditions continuing. High pressure over the area will maintain east-southeast winds and slight seas over the Gulf waters the remainder of today with a weak onshore sea breeze component developing along the coast during the afternoon.