Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Low temperatures tonight will be a little cooler than last night thanks to clear skies and lighter winds. Temperatures on Thursday will be a couple degrees warmer than today as low level cold advection becomes more neutral.
Thursday, an upper ridge axis crosses the Divide as it moves into Montana. Then showers end and winds become light and variable during the evening as the ridge flattens out, and winds aloft become zonal.
Dry weather and a day to day warming trend will continue through the weekend as an upper level ridge of high pressure builds over California.
1044 PM CDT Wed Jun 14 2017 Cold front this afternoon is slowly marching across central MN. The upper forcing is splitting the MPX area to the north and south with the primary upper low up by Winnipeg and another short wave that is driving severe convection into eastern WI this afternoon. On the whole though, Thursday will be a beautiful summer day for the upper MS Valley Zonal flow will be present over the the northern tier of the CONUS towards the end of the week as the upper low over Canada continues its slow trek off to Hudson Bay.
700 PM CDT Wed Jun 14 2017 At 2 PM, a short wave trough was producing showers and storms across western Wisconsin.
As we head towards the weekend we will see an upper ridge build over the area.
Surface conditions are seasonably warm and humid with temperatures in the lower 80s and dew points in the upper 70s. Short Term Update - A weak ridge will remain north of the Florida Keys. A weak ridge across Florida will keep winds light out of the east to southeast.
After that, the upper level ridge begins to strengthen over north Texas and southern Oklahoma which will cause rain chances to go down, especially over east Texas and southeast Oklahoma.
The Pacific and Sub-tropical highs will begin to merge over Northern Mexico by Thursday night and this will be turning into the high pressure system that dominates the Desert Southwest during summer. With only dry air to tap into and the lack of significant precipitation over the lower valleys the past month or so.
1031 PM EDT Wed Jun 14 2017 Canadian high pressure will build toward the region through Thursday.
Overnight low temperatures are expected to be in the low to mid 70s. (Thursday night through Wednesday) Overall, this period can be characterized as hot and dry, as upper level ridging dominates.
843 PM MDT Wed Jun 14 2017 Water vapor imagery showing tail end of upper trof has helped to kick of isolated showers and thunderstorms over the northeast plains this evening. After that, skies will clear and warmer and drier air aloft will move in with surface winds becoming light.
928 PM EDT Wed Jun 14 2017 High pressure crosses the region tonight and Thursday, and moves offshore Thursday night.
Scattered showers continue to rotate around stacked upper low over southern Canadian Prairie Provinces.
Water vapor loop shows upper level low remains over southwest MAN. Upper level low pressure system over southwest Canada will move slowly east overnight. Thursday will see similar temps and conditions with upper low only slightly farther northeast and mostly aftn shower/storm threat in the nrn fcst area.
Temperatures will trend a few degrees warmer tomorrow afternoon than they were today, reaching the low 80s along the Snake River Plain.
616 PM CDT Wed Jun 14 2017 Cold front this afternoon is slowly marching across central MN. The upper forcing is splitting the MPX area to the north and south with the primary upper low up by Winnipeg and another short wave that is driving severe convection into eastern WI this afternoon. On the whole though, Thursday will be a beautiful summer day for the upper MS Valley Zonal flow will be present over the the northern tier of the CONUS towards the end of the week as the upper low over Canada continues its slow trek off to Hudson Bay.
Upper low to our northeast is moving slowly into southwest Manitoba. Flat ridging with very modest height rises expected tomorrow.
Aloft, a mid-level trough in between two ridges will focus moisture over the state of Florida and provide an environment a bit more favorable for convection through the period.
A developing mid level ridge over N Mexico will keep nearly westerly flow aloft across the area today. Storms have already developed across the higher terrain with initiation likely along the rest of the dryline within the next few hours.
939 PM EDT Wed Jun 14 2017 Dry and seasonable as high pressure drifts east over the Atlantic south of Nova Scotia on Thursday.
This may change over the next 1-2 hours as latest models indicated weak cooling at 700 mb (especially in northern Oklahoma) which would weaken the low level cap. Also, a slight increase in the low level jet could aid in lifting the air.
1236 AM EDT Thu Jun 15 2017 Atlantic high pressure will remain to the east while a trough develops inland. Lows from the lower 70s inland to the mid 70s at the coast look on track. A weak lee trough is expected to develop during the day which should allow for an earlier, stronger sea breeze boundary to push inland.
/EC/ Tonight and Thursday: Weak mid-level ridging continues to prevail over the area this afternoon and this will continue into tonight. Once again, expect muggy overnight lows in the low/mid 70s. Changes are on the way overnight as the mid-level ridge begins to break down overnight into Thursday. Hot and humid conditions will continue on Thursday as the mid level ridge gives way to troughing and northwest flow.
High pressure, with drier air, will build in Saturday night and remain for several days. The latest radar mosaic shows a concentrated band of light showers moving along the I-81 corridor, with more widespread precipitation near the cyclone spinning across Lake Ontario. With the high centered over the area Sunday morning patchy frost and valley fog is possible. Syracuse/Finger Lakes and Scranton/Poconos warmer with lows around 40. After the Sunday morning fog and/or frost, conditions will become very quiet with mostly sunny skies, light winds and relatively warm temperatures in the lower 60s.
551 AM CDT Sat Sep 30 2017 Upper level ridging currently over the area will spread eastward through the remainder of the weekend. With the ridge axis not directly over the area, and a weak backdoor cold front that moved through earlier, temperatures will be bit cooler than yesterday. The other thing with the ridge shifting to the west and trough deepening in the west is it will set us up for persistent southerly to southwesterly through a deep layer of the atmosphere.
Weather ahead of approaching short wave will edge into the Central Mountains around sunrise this morning as a surface cold front sweeps across the state throughout the day.
A weak cold front will sag into the area toward morning with a slight increase in winds anticipated with the passage. Other than isolated showers affecting the southern waters and extreme southern portions of the CWA, most areas will remain dry on Saturday into Saturday night as upper level ridging and dry low level northeast flow take over.
/NF/ Prior discussion below: Tonight and Tomorrow: As the upper trough currently over the Great Lakes pushes off to the east tonight and tomorrow, an upper ridge will move into the middle of the U. As this transition occurs, the upper high builds over our region. Overnight lows will be in the low to mid 60s and Saturday highs will be in the mid to upper 80s.
Cooler high temperatures can be expected today, albeit close to seasonal normals for the end of September.
344 AM CDT Sat Sep 30 2017 WV imagery shows the upper trough has moved into ern MT, on its way to Canada by 00Z Sun. This will briefly transition SW flow aloft to zonal, before reverting back to SW as a secondary trough moves out of BC Sunday to replace the first.
Otherwise, the forecast is on track with warmer overnight lows already forecast in overcast areas. High pressure continues to round the western lakes region so our winds have moved to east/southeast. We begin to see mid level warm advection/isentropic ascent tonight as the high continues east.
An upper low pressure system was slowly tracking across WY and MT this afternoon, spreading moist west to southwest flow across the Four Corners region. The upper low is forecast to continue slowly migrating to the n-ne and weaken over the next 24 hrs, with brisk westerly flow aloft then settling in across the state. Tomorrow, scattered showers and thunderstorms are forecast to develop once again over the higher terrain by midday, with just some isolated showers for the eastern plains. Look for a warmer day with max temps in the 60s for the high valleys, and upper 60s to mid 70s for the plains.
A clear sky and the N/NE flow has temps currently ranging from the upper 50s to the lower 60s as of 08Z. When the upper-level trough across the Great Lakes swings into New England, a ridge will build in behind it, keeping conditions dry and clouds at bay. The previously mentioned upper-level ridge will amplify all the way up into the Great Lakes will build across the region through the weekend.
405 AM CDT Sat Sep 30 2017 Water vapor imagery shows weak ridging aloft over the ArkLaTex this morning, with a bit of a disturbance moving across our northern areas. Otherwise, expect another nice day across the region, with periodic sun shining through the high clouds, with temperatures similar to those of yesterday and remaining in the mid 80s. The threat of showers and thunderstorms returns to our southern and eastern parishes on Sunday afternoon, as an upper level low over the gulf slowly drifts to the west.
A cold front currently across north-central Idaho (as of early this morning) will sweep eastward bringing widespread showers to much of the region. Temperatures will also cool considerably with highs about 20 degrees cooler than yesterday.
332 AM EDT Sat Sep 30 2017 High pressure moving across the Great Lakes will provide mostly clear skies and seasonable temperatures this weekend. It will be a few degrees warmer Sunday with highs reaching the upper 60s to lower 70s.
344 AM CDT Sat Sep 30 2017 An upper level ridge is moving east across the region this morning. At the surface, high pressure is centered over the Great Lakes and departing eastward. An upper level low will be opening up and drifting NE across WY/MT and into SD/ND today perhaps favoring a few showers across the region.
High pressure center will move across the area today and to the east tonight. The center of the low pressure is clearly seen on the visible satellite and it looks like it may have bee enhanced some while passing over Lake Huron late this morning. Winds will gradually weaken this evening and overnight as the low pressure system exits to the east. Expect overnight lows to be mostly in the 40s with much cooler air in place. High pressure will allow cooler temperatures to stay and keep highs in the 60s with lows overnight Saturday dropping just a tad further into the lower 40s and upper 30s along and north of the I-69 corridor. High pressure will set up across the eastern Great Lakes by Sunday with warmer southeasterly winds allowing a slight warm up back into the mid to upper 60s.
649 AM EDT Sat Sep 30 2017 Low pressure will move across southern New England today and will present a good chance of light showers across New Hampshire and southernmost Maine today. High pressure builds across the region tonight with frosty temperatures expected. This high will remain over the region into midweek providing fair weather and gradually warming temperatures. Highs will mainly be in the 50s, but would not be surprised if portions of Cheshire County into the higher terrain of western Hillsborough County remain in the 40s through at least early afternoon. Sunday looks like a stellar day with high pressure overhead and highs well into the 60s. Overall a very quiet weather pattern through the end of the week as high pressure dominates. Sunday night the trough of cold air aloft will begin to move east.
Surface wise, a trough of low pressure lies from north central Florida into the south central Gulf of Mexico, with high pressure both to the east and well north of our area. For the majority of this period, low chance pops will be inserted with afternoon highs averaging in the upper 80s with overnight lows mainly in the lower 80s.
This trough could also generate a few light showers over the Cascades and the Siskiyous this morning. As typical of most Fall type cold front passage, a thermal trough sets up along the coast up to Cape Blanco.
An early morning surface analysis showed a strong 1030 mb high pressure over northern Wisconsin encompassing much of the Great Lakes and lower Ohio Valley. This has ushered in drier and cooler air, evident by the GOES 16 precipitable water values ranging from 0. A pleasant and dry day is on tap for the region as high pressure slides across the Great Lakes. The air mass will remain dry as dewpoints mix down into the lower 40s while high temperatures top out in the lower 70s. Another clear and seasonably cool night is expected tonight as the high center moves to New York. With a slight moderation in the air mass, plan on highs to reach the lower to middle 70s.
The low responsible for our soggy week is finally lifting to the northeast across central WY, though low-level moisture is still firmly in place.
300 AM EDT Sat Sep 30 2017 High pressure, both at the surface and aloft, will remain firmly entrenched across the region for the next several days and beyond. This ridging will bring mostly clear skies, light winds, and dry conditions to eastern Kentucky. Temperatures over the weekend look to be quite pleasant, with highs today ranging from the upper 60s to the lower 70s. Sunday should be a bit warmer, with highs on that day expected to top out in the low to mid 70s. Tonights lows will be quite chilly, with valley locations falling into the lower 40s, while the surrounding ridges bottom out in the mid to upper 40s. An upper level ridge is expected to be in place across the Eastern Conus to begin the period.
An upper level low centered a few hundred miles west of the SW Florida coast will drift slowly southwestward today. At the surface, a weak area of low pressure and accompanying tropical moisture will continue to lift northward over the Florida peninsula and far eastern gulf.
MVFR conditions will become IFR and then LIFR or possibly VLIFR after 04Z to 10Z Saturday in the low clouds and fog. /Issued 245 PM CDT Fri Sep 29 2017/ Upper level low over Wyoming this afternoon will lift northward into Montana by Saturday morning.
High pressure, with drier air, will build in Saturday night and remain for several days. The latest radar mosaic shows a concentrated band of light showers moving along the I-81 corridor, with more widespread precipitation near the cyclone spinning across Lake Ontario. With the high centered over the area Sunday morning patchy frost and valley fog is possible. Syracuse/Finger Lakes and Scranton/Poconos warmer with lows around 40. October will begin with a dry and mostly clear period through the short term period, with near normal temperatures trending slightly warmer towards midweek. After a cold dawn, this will result in a splendid crisp day with abundant sunshine and highs mainly in the lower to mid 60s.
404 AM EDT Sat Sep 30 2017 High pressure over the central Great Lakes will move to the east coast by early in the week, the drift to the mid Atlantic States. The clouds associated with the trough aloft have been over northwest PA and points east early this morning. These clouds will shift east this morning as the trough shifts east leaving just the lake effect clouds behind. Forecast high temperatures will be near the higher guidance since 850 mb temperatures are progged to warm to between 3-6C this afternoon. High pressure will be overhead early tonight and winds will become light and variable. Lows generally 35 to 40 except a little warmer in town and along the lakeshore. Forecast high temperatures will again be on the high side of guidance as 850 mb temperatures are progged to warm to 9-12C.
250 AM CDT Sat Sep 30 2017 06Z surface data has high pressure over the Great Lakes with a frontal boundary from the Plains into the Ohio Valley. Quiet and dry conditions will be seen today and tonight as high pressure slowly moves into the Ohio Valley.
400 AM EDT Sat Sep 30 2017 High pressure, both at the surface and aloft, will remain firmly entrenched across the region for the next several days and beyond. This ridging will bring mostly clear skies, light winds, and dry conditions to eastern Kentucky. Temperatures over the weekend look to be quite pleasant, with highs today ranging from the upper 60s to the lower 70s. Sunday should be a bit warmer, with highs on that day expected to top out in the low to mid 70s. Tonights lows will be quite chilly, with valley locations falling into the lower 40s, while the surrounding ridges bottom out in the mid to upper 40s. They all depict a renewal of the southeast ridging that we have seen for the latter part of summer.
The cold front continues to move through the forecast area this morning, having already moved through Boise.
ECMWF/NAM/GFS deterministic predict a broad upper trough moving EWD across the WRN half of the CONUS during the period, while flattening the upper ridge affecting the CWA/MSA. The GFS hints at attempting to close off the circulation as a weak area of low pressure.
409 AM MDT Sat Sep 30 2017 An upper level trof of low pressure will slowly move through the region today. An upper level trof is slowly moving eastward towards the region this morning. Highs today will still be mild in the Havre/Lewistown area as the cool air is slow to move in, otherwise further west, afternoon highs will be cooler today. On Sunday, cooler air continues to move into the region, with scattered rain/snow showers/isolated thunderstorms possible as the upper level low rotates over the region.
1012 PM PDT Fri Sep 29 2017 A cold front will bring breezy winds and light showers to the Inland Northwest tonight. Much cooler temperatures expected for the weekend. Evening update: the cold front continues to move across the region, with some cloud cover and very limited showers and sprinkles as expected. The precipitation that is expected to become more likely across southeastern WA into the lower ID is, however, starting to show up in some form near the Blue Mountains and lower Palouse. Cote' 06Z TAFS: A cold front passes tonight, while an unstable upper trough starts to sag in Saturday into Saturday night. However as the upper trough sags further into the region the shower risk will start to expand back around some TAF sites, though they still will remain isolated.
The large upper trough will remain quasi-stationary from the Great Basin into the northern plains while the southeast U. anticyclone drifts westward.
High pressure center will move across the area today and to the east tonight. Remaining clouds over the Thumb associated with cool northeast flow off of Lake Huron will gradually dissipate today as drier low level air works into the region with building high pressure. This cool high pressure center of Canadian origin will provide temperatures very much in line with what is to be expected in late September with highs in the 60s and lows in the upper 30s to mid 40s throughout the weekend.
324 AM CDT Sat Sep 30 2017 A 500 mb low pressure, currently over MT, will push into south Canadian today.
321 AM EDT Sat Sep 30 2017 Remaining clouds over the Thumb associated with cool northeast flow off of Lake Huron will gradually dissipate today as drier low level air works into the region with building high pressure. This cool high pressure center of Canadian origin will provide temperatures very much in line with what is to be expected in late September with highs in the 60s and lows in the upper 30s to mid 40s throughout the weekend.
Lows in the lower to mid 50s are in the forecast across SW Kansas. Highs should peak in the lower to mid 70s.
258 AM EDT Sat Sep 30 2017 Low pressure will move across southern New England today and will present a good chance of light showers across New Hampshire and southernmost Maine today. High pressure builds across the region tonight with frosty temperatures expected. This high will remain over the region into midweek providing fair weather and gradually warming temperatures. Highs will mainly be in the 50s, but would not be surprised if portions of Cheshire County into the higher terrain of western Hillsborough County remain in the 40s through at least early afternoon. Sunday looks like a stellar day with high pressure overhead and highs well into the 60s. Overall a very quiet weather pattern through the end of the week as high pressure dominates. Sunday night the trough of cold air aloft will begin to move east.
452 AM CDT Sat Sep 30 2017 Latest upper air analysis/water vapor satellite imagery showed upper ridging over NE Mexico/S TX with a distinct upper low over the East Central Gulf. At the SFC, an expansive high was centered over the northern Great Lakes, with a weak low pressure trof over the central/southern FL peninsula. Upper low over the Gulf is forecast to sink toward the SW toward the Yucatan and Bay of Campeche tonight and Sunday, while the weak inverted trof over FL migrates WWD underneath low to mid level ridging building into the Mid Atlantic.
309 AM CDT Sat Sep 30 2017 Upper level ridging currently over the area will spread eastward through the remainder of the weekend. With the ridge axis not directly over the area, and a weak backdoor cold front that moved through earlier, temperatures will be bit cooler than yesterday. The other thing with the ridge shifting to the west and trough deepening in the west is it will set us up for persistent southerly to southwesterly through a deep layer of the atmosphere.
558 AM EDT Sat Sep 30 2017 High pressure moving across the Great Lakes will provide mostly clear skies and seasonable temperatures this weekend. It will be a few degrees warmer Sunday with highs reaching the upper 60s to lower 70s.
228 AM EDT Sat Sep 30 2017 High pressure will shift into the mid-Atlantic through the weekend keeping us dry and cool/seasonal. Expect a dry, sunny day for the last day of September, with cold front to our east and a cool northwest breeze. Tonight, strong high pressure will build in from the north as the center moves from the Great Lakes into NY/PA. Lows tonight under clear skies will range from the mid 30s in the deeper sheltered valleys in the mountains, with upper 30s to lower 40s elsewhere west of the Blue Ridge, and mid to upper 40s east. High pressure, centered over the northeastern state, will wedge south into GA starting Sunday.
As this occurs, the trough axis extending south of the low will push east of the forecast area by midnight reducing dynamic lift while falling temperatures allow the airmass to stabilize.
SHORT TERM (Today through Sunday): GOES-16 satellite derived total precipitable water value images indicate some drier air has moved into extreme northeast Mexico and the lower Rio Grande valley early this morning and this is reflected in last night's upper air sounding which had 1.
Thus should see sct showers and tstms dvlp over the higher terrain by early aftn with activity moving ENE across nern CO late this aftn and evening. As for highs this aftn, reading will be warmer across nern CO with temps ranging from the lower 70s over the far nern corner with mid to upper 70s further west closer to the front range urban corridor. Thus expect pcpn to become more widespread over the higher terrain north of I-70 with snow levels down to 10000 feet. A broad upper level trof will develop over much of the Western U.