Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1051 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2019 Forecast area enjoying a rather pleasant day as high pressure extended from southern Ontario into the Upper Mississippi River Valley. High pressure will continue to provide quiet weather across the area tonight into Thursday morning. Warm air advection/moisture transport ahead of low pressure and warm front approaching from the Northern Plains will bring a chance of elevated showers/isolated storms toward the area by later Thursday afternoon into Thursday night. Friday through Friday night sees the continuation of moisture transport/warm air advection into the area as a warm front pushes north across IA/northern IL.
213 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2019 Warmer temperatures and increasing humidity will build across the region today.
mainly over the higher terrain. As our large upper low sags south into our area, this activity will eventually shift to the south, taking aim at the L-C Valley and Palouse by Thursday morning. With the high sun angle at this time of the year, any breaks in the clouds could quickly generate enough instability to spark a thunderstorm.
356 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2019 Water vapor loop indicated an upper level trough over eastern MT. Upper trough will rotate north and east today and tonight.
With the upper trof, extensive instability, and an approaching surface boundary - storms should become quite strong to possibly severe, especially during the evening hours. After this system clears out, an upper ridge is going to start building across the area. By Friday, temperatures across the area should reach the lower 90's across the north, with mid 90's elsewhere.
Meanwhile, another QLCS feature in the Texas Hill Country is expected to move southeast along the better theta-e ridge, which should see this activity move off the Texas coast in the pre-dawn hours. Based on this reasoning, will not be updating the low PoPs currently forecast but have the night shift watch trends closely.
246 AM EDT Thu Jun 20 2019 Geopotential heights will begin rising today as a zonally elongated mid-level ridge builds in from the western Atlantic. This will support surface ridging whose axis will branch west into south Florida. The mid-level ridge will retrograde towards the Gulf of Mexico.
354 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2019 Upper ridge over the region today with an upper trough centered over ID and extending southward.
The weekend will bring lighter winds and slightly above average temperatures as a ridge builds into the western US. Current analysis as of 2 AM PDT: Water vapor imagery showing the main upper level low situated along the Alberta/MT border. Rotating around the periphery of this low is an E-W orientated trough axis moving southward into OR. For today, the aforementioned trough will continue to move into the northern Great Basin, taking an inside slider type path. Noticeably cooler, and actually average temperatures are expected today as synoptic scale cooling will commence ahead of the approaching system. On Friday, the main upper level low will to move into eastern MT. Another trough will swing southward along the periphery of this main low into the central Great Basin, ushering a dry cold front through the district early Friday morning.
807 AM EDT Thu Jun 20 2019 A low pressure system will push across the state later today and tonight.
447 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2019 Today and Tonight: A mid-level trough passing over the region has helped to maintain several MCS around the region overnight.
This activity is associated with the trailing upper disturbance that is gradually moving ewd thru the lower MS Valley/Mid South regions. Seasonably warm wx conditions are then xpcted for the first half of the weekend period, as weak upper ridging builds over the cntrl Gulf states. Highs Fri/Sat look to climb well into the upper 80s/lower 90s while lows Sat night trend predom in the lower 70s. The seasonably warm pattern is xpcted to continue into the second half of the weekend, with afternoon highs Sun again xpcted to climb well into the lower 90s for most spots. Temps also look to return a little closer to seasonal trends for this time of the yr starting Mon, as the upper ridge axis over the Gulf states weakens.
The low-level ridge axis remains suppressed across the southern FL peninsula over the next 24 hours. Else, generally VFR, expecting lower coverage of convection this afternoon with warmer/drier air in place, but will still see some ISOLD-SCT MVFR shra/tsra this afternoon.
A warm front will be slowly pushing northeast through the Mid State, providing the focus for rain and storms to develop.
/issued 432 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2019/ SHORT TERM (Now through Friday night): Broad 500 mb high pressure over the BRO CWFA will continue to be the dominant force over the region during this period.
/issued 354 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2019/ Upper ridge over the region today with an upper trough centered over ID and extending southward.
/GG/ Today and Tonight: A mid-level trough passing over the region has helped to maintain several MCS around the region overnight.
603 AM MDT Thu Jun 20 2019 Upper low over western Montana will slow drift across the state today.
A few hours of clearing this morning will lead to another round of thunderstorms mainly in the south this afternoon, before the cold front sweeps through this evening and ends rain threat.
645 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2019 Warmer temperatures and increasing humidity will build across the region today.
/issued 246 AM EDT Thu Jun 20 2019/ Geopotential heights will begin rising today as a zonally elongated mid-level ridge builds in from the western Atlantic. This will support surface ridging whose axis will branch west into south Florida. The mid-level ridge will retrograde towards the Gulf of Mexico.
A western Atlantic, east-west oriented, deep tropospheric, (594 dm height) ridge axis will hold firm across the Bahamian chain and cross our entire area. With the western Atlantic ridge axis meandering from the Straits of Florida to South Florida, light to gentle southeast to south winds will become mainly light by late this morning.
1145 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH OFF TO THE EAST TODAY. THIS WILL PLAY OUT TO HIGHS IN THE LOWER 20S FROM EAST CENTRAL SD INTO THE IOWA GREAT LAKES AREA. WITH THE TROUGH CONTINUING TO SETTLE SOUTHWARD SUNDAY.
AN UPPER RIDGE AND OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BRING SUNNY DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS TO WESTERN WASHINGTON THIS WEEKEND.
GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET (CURRENT- LY JUST TO OUR WEST) AND THE EXPECTATIONS OF IT SLOWLY SHIFTING EAST WITH TIME. SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD INCREASE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS A COASTAL LOW OVER THE LOWER TX COAST BEGINS TO MOVE UP ALONG THE GULF COAST.
324 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015 WE WILL CONTINUE THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT WITH AREAS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE/FOG AND SCATTERED LIGHT FREEZING RAIN SHOWERS.
1126 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015 WV IMAGERY SHOWING A BROAD TROF THE DOMINATE FEATURE ACROSS THE CONUS THIS MORNING WITH THE JET STREAM DIPPING ALL THE WAY DOWN INTO THE SOUTHERN TIER STATES.
RETREATING HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING.
STEEPEST LL LAPSE RATES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF WY AND THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL BLACK HILLS WHERE TERRAIN INFLUENCES WILL PREVAIL.
1051 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015 PATCHY LIGHT RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CWA ATTM. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED ABOVE FREEZING ALONG AND SOUTH OF A EL DORADO ARKANSAS TO QUITMAN TEXAS LINE. MOST OF THE NORTHERN AREAS SHOULD CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING. AS AN EXTENSION OF THE ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED IF THE LOWER ELEVATIONS TRAP THE COLD AIR INTO THE AFTERNOON. PRECIP WILL BECOME ALL LIQUID RAIN BY MID MORNING AS TEMPS RISE ABOVE FREEZING AND RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BECOME WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA AFTER 01/00Z AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. AND FREEZING RAIN. ALL PRECIPITATION TO TRANSITION TO RAIN LATER THIS MORNING AS TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE FREEZING.
1226 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015 A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY.
240 PM MST SAT FEB 28 2015 CURRENT THINKING IS FOR THE AREA OF LIGHT SNOW THAT OCCURRED THIS MORNING (PER 850-700MB RH AND BETTER DENDRITIC LAYER TEMPS NEAR THE SFC) WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AND OUT OF THE AREA BY 00Z SUNDAY AS SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS (AND CONSIDERABLY DRIER AIR IN THE MID LEVELS).
A RELATIVELY MOIST WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER COLORADO WITH AN UPPER TROUGH WELL TO THE WEST OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. THE SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO SHIFT INTO SOUTHERN CA WITH RIDGING OVER COLORADO. WITH OVERRUNNING PATTERN SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE MINIMAL IN THE HIGH COUNTRY AS WELL. ANOTHER SURGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MAY HELP TO ENHANCE OF SNOWFALL THERE IS LEFT ALONG THE FRONT RANGE AND PALMER DIVIDE LATE IN THE DAY TOWARDS 00Z.
THE CLOUD DECK WILL BEGIN TO BREAK UP SUNDAY MORNING AS MID LEVEL RIDGING SETTLES IN OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MID WEEK SHOWING DEEP LAYER RIDGING BUILDING IN FROM SOUTHERN GOMEX.
A WEAK COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST TODAY. A COLD FRONT.
PROVIDING US WITH CHANCES FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION AS WE SEE SUBTLE DEFORMATION/CONVERGENCE IN THE LOWER-MID TROPOSPHERE ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE.
300 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION THIS EVENING BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE SUNDAY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT.
A VORT LOBE ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL ENTER NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AROUND MIDNIGHT. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/VORT LOBE IS PROGGED TO EXIT EAST OF THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA SHOULD END SNOW CHANCES FROM WEST TO EAST.
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWED AN EAST WEST ORIENTED TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWEST STATES WITH NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. IN THE LOW LEVELS. DURING THIS PERIOD THE TROUGH IN THE WEST WILL SWING DOWN ALONG THE WEST COAST AND THIS WILL TURN THE FLOW OVER TEXAS TO THE SOUTHWEST.
/ISSUED 333 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/ SOME WEAK CAA IS CONTINUING THIS MORNING IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT THAT IS CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL GULF. TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING ARE IN THE LOW 30S IN THE CLOUD FREE AREAS OF CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S WHERE CLOUDS HAVE MOVED BACK IN ACROSS EAST TEXAS AND WESTERN LOUISIANA. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND THE LAKES REGION OF TEXAS TOMORROW NIGHT AND THIS WILL FURTHER INCREASE THE RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDER CHANCES ACROSS THESE AREAS.
A RETURN OF SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING HUMIDITY TO THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS THE WARMER AIR AND MOISTURE ADVECTS BACKS INTO THE REGION.
THE CWA REMAINS IN BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE NOW CENTERED OVER THE NERN CONUS AND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS.
The upper level low pressure trof over Central Montana will move east of the region by this afternoon.
AS AN UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST.
OVERNIGHT THE MIXED PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHWARD WITH AREAS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION INTO SUNDAY MORNING. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO DIVE SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WEST COAST THIS MORNING WHILE A WAVE OVER CENTRAL CANADA BEGINS TO DROP SOUTHWARD. THICKNESS VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ALONG WITH A MID LEVEL WARM NOSE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR PRECIP TO BECOME MORE OF A SNOW/SLEET MIX TO A POSSIBLE RAIN/FREEZING RAIN MIX. WITH WARMING CLOSER TO/JUST ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK FOR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
A FRONTAL SYSTEM AND UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING SNOW TO OUR REGION TONIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH MIXED PRECIPITATION IN THE SOUTH.
TEMPERATURES WERE A BIT WARMER THAN GUIDANCE SUGGESTED AND GUIDANCE REFLECTS THIS TREND FOR HIGHS TODAY WITH THE LATEST COMING IN A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER. DID HEDGE TEMPERATURES A LITTLE MORE TOWARDS THE WARMER END OF THE GUIDANCE. THUS WOULD EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE A BIT WARMER DURING THE DAY. SUNDAY WILL BE WARMER. BUT STILL STRUGGLING TO REACH FREEZING.
106 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015 COASTAL TROUGH CONTINUES TO RESULT IN HEAVY RAINS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EAST COAST THIS AFTERNOON.
WARM NOSE ALOFT HAS SURGED THROUGH SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON WITH SNOW QUICKLY TRANSITIONING TO FREEZING RAIN PER OBSERVATIONS/DUAL POL RADAR TRENDS. AREAS OF FREEZING RAIN WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS WITH SOME LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS LIKELY. TEMPERATURES ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA ARE A LITTLE TRICKY AS SOME AREAS MAY RISE JUST ABOVE FREEZING LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. ANY AREAS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE/FLURRIES THAT REMAIN SUNDAY MORNING WILL LIKELY TRANSITION TO ALL LIQUID FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AS TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE FREEZING.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON SUNDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING ANOTHER SUNNY DAY TO NORTHEAST WI TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION ON SUNDAY. A S/W TROF WILL ARRIVE LATE IN THE DAY.
451 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015 WINDS WILL SHIFT TO A MORE SRLY DIRECTION ON THE BACKSIDE OF EXITING HIGH PRESSURE THIS EVENING. CREATING A PSEUDO WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG A DEVELOPING LLVL JET. TEMPERATURES IN THE LLVLS WILL RISE ABOVE FREEZING BETWEEN 0 AND 6Z. THEN A FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL GIVEN THE LATEST NAM12 AND GFS40 FORECAST SOUNDINGS THROUGH AROUND 12Z. GIVEN THE WARMER SRLY FLOW TOMORROW. RAIN WILL THEN CHANGE BACK OVER TO SNOW AS TEMPS DROP BELOW FREEZING AFTER DARK.
ENE SFC FLOW WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO THE SE TODAY AS THE SFC ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. THIS WILL GRADUALLY SEND COOLER AIR SW TOWARDS THE CAROLINAS/GA AND N AL LATER THIS EVENING/TONIGHT. DID MAKE SOME TWEAKS TO THE SKY COVER TODAY WITH LOWER END MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS GIVEN THE CLOUD BREAKS AND VIS SATELLITE SHOWING ADDITIONAL CLEARING IN THE LOW CLOUDS, BUT STILL THIN MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.
SEVERAL WEAK WAVES WILL ROTATE THROUGH BASE OF NORTHERN STREAM MID LEVEL TROUGH THIS WEEKEND. LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF TROUGH AND WILL BE STARTING OUT ABOUT 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT ACROSS CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT.
1120 AM CST Sat Feb 28 2015 18Z TAF issuance Freezing drizzle and fog continue across most of the region with IFR and LIFR conditions.
WITH A POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERN US AND A SECOND TROUGH DIVING SOUTHWARD THROUGH WESTERN CANADA.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO DIVE SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WEST COAST THIS MORNING WHILE A WAVE OVER CENTRAL CANADA BEGINS TO DROP SOUTHWARD. THICKNESS VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ALONG WITH A MID LEVEL WARM NOSE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR PRECIP TO BECOME MORE OF A SNOW/SLEET MIX TO A POSSIBLE RAIN/FREEZING RAIN MIX. WITH WARMING CLOSER TO/JUST ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK FOR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
1132 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015 HYDRO WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN THIS EVENING AND SUNDAY SPREADING LIGHT SNOW AS IT MOVES EAST.
ESPECIALLY AT KGUY WHERE A PERIOD OF FREEZING DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE. LIGHT FREEZING OR LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY MORE LIKELY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS INTO THURSDAY.
AM LEAD TO BELIEVE GUIDANCE VALUES ABOVE THE LOW 30S ARE TOO OPTIMISTIC.
257 AM MDT WED MAR 11 2015 EARLY MORNING WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOW RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE SW US INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND OVER OUR CWA. AT THE SURFACE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS IN PLACE OVER OUR CWA. WITH LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM EASTERN WYOMING AND NEBRASKA PANHANDLE INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO.
A COLD FRONT EXTENDED INTO SRN MANITOBA FROM LOW PRES OVER JAMES BAY TONIGHT. EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO DROP THROUGH THE AREA WITH WINDS VEERING TO THE NW. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. S CNTRL LOCATIONS SHOULD STILL REACH THE LOW/MID 40S WHILE MID TO UPPER 30S WILL PREVAIL CLOSER TO LAKE SUPERIOR.
206 AM EDT WED MAR 11 2015 LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN KENTUCKY WILL MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN WEDNESDAY AND MOVE OFF TO THE EAST ON THURSDAY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN OHIO THIS EVENING WILL SHEAR AS IT MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST THIS EVENING. WITH THE LOW LEVELS SATURATED. THEREAFTER PLENTY OF DRY AIR WILL BE IN PLACE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. THE HIGH WILL START TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST ON THURSDAY WITH JUST SOME CIRRUS SPREADING IN. THURSDAY NIGHT MOISTURE STREAMING NORTH AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE WILL OVERRUN THE REMAINING HIGH PRESSURE AXIS.
925MB TEMPS WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. BUT WITH LIGHT WINDS UNDER THE RIDGE. WILL KEEP COOLER READINGS CLOSE TO LAKE MICHIGAN.
631 AM EDT WED MAR 11 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AND DRY OUT THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY.
343 AM CDT WED MAR 11 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD AND LIGHT WINDS ALLOWED FOR TEMPS TO DROP TO NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING EARLY THIS MORNING. WITH THE LOWER DEW PTS EXPECTED. LIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME MORE S/SE AS LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT. A RECEDING RIDGE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MEAN QUITE THE WARM MID-MARCH DAY FOR THU AS BREEZY SLY WINDS WILL PRODUCING HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S. DESPITE A TRAILING DIGGING UPR LVL TROF AXIS FOLLOWING THE LOW PRES SYSTEM.
LEE SIDE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN AND MONTANA WILL BRING A MODERATE CHINOOK FLOW INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY. WITH HIGHS EVEN INTO THE LOWER 50S ACROSS THE SNOW COVERED AREAS NORTH.
1204 AM CDT WED MAR 11 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH SOUTH FROM DAKOTAS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. COLD ADVECTION WILL PRECEDE THE ARRIVAL HIGH PRESSURE TONIGHT AND WILL RESULT IN MORE LIMITED MIXING TO AROUND 925 MB ON WEDNESDAY. THE 925 MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 4 C COOLER ON WEDNESDAY THAN TODAY AND WITH LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS ORIGINATING FROM THE HIGH. WILL LEAD TO PLEASANT YET COOLER TEMPERATURES THAN TODAY. THE TRACK OF A COUPLE PV ANOMALIES LIFTING NORTH/NORTHEAST AHEAD OF MID LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL REBUILD ACROSS THE PACNW ON THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES /WHILE REMAINING ABOVE NORMAL/ WILL BE 5-15 DEGREES COOLER TODAY THEN WARM 3-5 DEGREES ON THURSDAY.
630 AM EDT WED MAR 11 2015 HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW AND A SHALLOW LAYER OF MOISTURE WILL HELP POPS AND QPF LINGER THE LONGEST IN THE HIGH TERRAIN. THE CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW STILL LINGERING OVER TX WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TODAY AND THURSDAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO MAINLY THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE GREAT BASIN AND POSSIBLY THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN AND NORTHWEST ARIZONA.
THE MAIN EVENT IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BEGIN ON THURSDAY DUE TO SHORT WAVE ENERGY EJECTING OUT OF A LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS ENERGY WILL DEVELOP AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE THAT WILL TRACK SLOWLY NORTH NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR CWA.
138 AM EDT WED MAR 11 2015 A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY.
Temperatures will be slightly cooler today as high clouds from the approaching weather system move into the region. Temperatures will continue to be slightly above normal, though brief cooler temperatures on Thursday may be enough to allow light snow to fall over the highest elevations.
A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE AREA THIS EVENING. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE BAY AREA ON WEDNESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES OVER THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY REBUILD THURSDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A RETURN TO WARM AND DRY WEATHER.
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE 60S TO THE LOWER 70S WITH A NORTH TO NORTHEAST WIND IN THE 5 TO 15 MPH RANGE.
IT IS TRANSITION TIME ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTER MIGRATING AWAY TO THE SOUTHEAST. AND A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN OVERHEAD FROM THE NORTH. FURTHER TO THE WEST A DEEP AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS TRACKING INTO THE NORTHWESTERN US.
143 AM EDT WED MAR 11 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP THE OHIO VALLEY THIS EVENING AS ANOTHER LOW TRACKS EAST ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. THE CANADIAN LOW WILL FORCE A COLD FRONT TO DROP ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY.
EXPECT HIGHS TODAY OF 70 DEGREES IN THE SOUTHWEST TO THE LOWER 50S IN THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHIFTS THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY WHICH WILL BRING A BIT COOLER.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT.
TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT 08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD LEE TROUGH FROM CENTRAL MT INTO EASTERN WY. WATER VAPOUR HAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES HEADING EAST. UPPER/THERMAL RIDGE PEAK OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. LEE TROUGH WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EAST WITH DECENT GRADIENT SETTING UP OVER CENTRAL SD. THIS SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN ELEVATED MUCH OF THE NIGHT GIVEN PARTIALLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER. UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND WEAK FORCING.
541 AM CDT WED MAR 11 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD AND LIGHT WINDS ALLOWED FOR TEMPS TO DROP TO NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING EARLY THIS MORNING. WITH THE LOWER DEW PTS EXPECTED. LIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME MORE S/SE AS LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT. A RECEDING RIDGE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MEAN QUITE THE WARM MID-MARCH DAY FOR THU AS BREEZY SLY WINDS WILL PRODUCING HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S. DESPITE A TRAILING DIGGING UPR LVL TROF AXIS FOLLOWING THE LOW PRES SYSTEM.
A LARGE CYCLONE WAS OVER THE PACIFIC W OF CANADA. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY OVER THE REGION WITH MAX TEMPS REACHING THE M70S OVER THE LOWER ARK RVR VALLEY. TEMPS WILL BE RELATIVELY MILD TONIGHT OVER THE PLAINS WITH TEMPS RANGING FROM ABOUT FREEZING TO 40F.
348 AM EDT WED MAR 11 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG A WARM FRONT THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN LATE TODAY AND REMAINS THROUGH THURSDAY.
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IN THE SHORT TERM WILL SITUATED ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES INTO NORTHERN MEXICO. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S OUT WEST TO UPPER 60S OVER THE NORTHERN COASTAL BEND INTO VICTORIA CROSSROADS. MOISTURE AXIS SLIGHTLY SHIFTS BACK TO THE WEST BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS SPOKE OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ROUNDS BASE OF TROUGH.
A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL BE MOVING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT COULD ALLOW SOME PRECIPITATION, AND POSSIBLY EVEN A THUNDERSTORMS IN THE INTERIOR, GENERALLY WEST OF THE LAKE. SPRAWLING MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE SUBTROPICAL WESTERN ATLANTIC ACROSS FLORIDA WILL REMAIN LOCKED IN PLACE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS LARGE AND STRONG MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND NORTHERN MEXICO REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY. THIS WILL RESULT IN DEEP LAYERED HIGH PRESSURE INFLUENCING SOUTH FLORIDA WITH WARM AND BREEZY CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
446 AM CDT WED MAR 11 2015 A WEAK COLD FRONT CURRENTLY DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA FROM A COLUMBUS MS TO WINCHESTER TN LINE IS ACTING AS THE FOCAL POINT FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS WITH LIGHT RAIN FALLING ELSEWHERE. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO THURSDAY IS NOW FORECAST TO TRACK FURTHER TO THE WEST OF PREVIOUS THINKING. DUE TO THIS MORE WESTWARD TRACK OF THE LOW.
WINDS WILL ALSO REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN VICINITY OF A WEAKENING SURFACE TROF ACROSS THE AREA.
AND THURSDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. THE WEAK COLD FRONT THAT MOVED ACROSS THE REGION SHOULD BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES TODAY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN WEDNESDAY AWAY FROM THE BAY AND LAKE.
215 AM PDT WED MAR 11 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA TODAY, BRINGING LIGHT RAIN AND HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW, ESPECIALLY IN THE SIERRA AND AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80. THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON TODAY, BUT AGAIN THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 THROUGH THIS EVENING. RESIDUAL SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING AND THEN QUICKLY DISSIPATE AS MUCH DRIER AIR ACCOMPANYING THE RIDGE WORKS INTO THE REGION. BY THE END OF THE WEEK, THE RIDGE RETURNS WITH A DRYING AND WARMING TREND.