Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
/issued 319 AM CDT Tue Oct 8 2019/ (Today and Tonight) Early this morning, the cool air mass, clear skies and light and variable winds are resulting in 1 am temperatures having already dropped into the low 50s in many locations. Today looks dry and warmer as weak upper level ridging moves in and the 850 mb thermal ridge strengthens. Expect highs in the low to mid 80s across the region. Expect a warmer night tonight, with lows in the low 60s.
315 AM MDT Tue Oct 8 2019 Significant weather change coming up with a strong cold front that will drop south across the forecast area this afternoon and evening. Rain will move in behind the front this afternoon and evening and change to snow tonight and Wednesday morning from NW to SE as temperatures fall below freezing.
Fog development is possible late, with the highest chance looking to be at TRI.
High pressure was in control of the regions weather overnight and will continue through today and overnight tonight. Upper level ridging will slide across the plains and into the Ozarks and help allow temperatures to climb into the lower 70s today thanks to sunny skies. Winds will begin to pick up overnight though as southerly return flow begins as a rather strong upper level trough begins to move into the Pacific Northwest.
Water vapor imagery and 500mb RAP analysis show the region under northwest flow on the backside of an exiting upper trough today. To the southwest, high pressure is centered over Baja California with ridging over the Desert Southwest. Winds turned to the south early this afternoon as a lee trough deepened along the Rockies. A strong upper trough digs into the Pacific Northwest on Tuesday and flow aloft of the region shifts to southwesterly.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 76 61 82 60 / 10 10 10 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 74 58 81 59 / 10 10 10 0 Oak Ridge, TN 73 57 81 58 / 10 10 10 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 68 54 78 54 / 30 10 10 0.
618 AM CDT Tue Oct 8 2019 A sprawling high pressure system currently centered over the Ohio Valley will continue to dominate the surface weather pattern through Wednesday. The ridge axis will slowly shift to the southeast through the short term, which in conjunction with a strengthening low over the Plains, will turn the low level flow back to the south.
555 AM CDT Tue Oct 8 2019 Primary forecast focus is on the strong cold front late week.
518 AM MDT Tue Oct 8 2019 Water vapor imagery shows a strong upper trough crossing BC Canada and pushing into the Pacific NW states. Zonal upper flow across the CWA is gradually becoming more southwesterly as the trough continues eastward. A strong cold front will push through Montana this afternoon and evening, cross over into the CWA late this evening into Wednesday morning.
A trough of low pressure draped from the extreme Southeast Gulf of Mexico into extreme South Florida will move little this afternoon and tonight.
Temperatures will still be pleasant and likely a couple of degrees warmer than yesterday's values. Low level jet developing in response to upper trough moving into the Northern Rockies tonight should begin to transport moisture north with some elevated convection possibly developing as far east as northeast OK late tonight into Wednesday morning. Upper low is expected to continue moving east and eject into the plains by Wednesday night, with more robust moisture transport taking shape by then.
with temperatures climbing back into the lower to mid 70s by early afternoon.
Incoming cold front looks a little slower than before which will allow a little more time for warming ahead of it.
A dry cold front will pass through Central California Wednesday, resulting in significant cooling and strong, gusty winds in a portion of the Kern County mountains and desert.
Meanwhile, a trough of low pressure extends from the northern tip of the Yucatan Peninsula to the extreme Southeast Gulf of Mexico, and into South Florida.
Issued by National Weather Service Springfield MO 1217 PM CDT Tue Oct 8 2019 Primary forecast focus is on the strong cold front late week.
1149 AM EDT Tue Oct 8 2019 Lingering showers are possible for the southeastern ridges into tonight.
Then, a strong cold front is expected to bring much needed rain in the form of widespread showers and some thunderstorms early this weekend. After that much cooler and mostly dry weather will return for the weekend. Good confidence that a dry column and the influence of high pressure will result in clear skies and good radiational cooling with overnight lows in the mid 40s per the blend.
The surface and upper level troughs will begin to finally move off to the east tonight. Have all pops in the higher terrain ending by 06Z, however, cloud cover is tricky. A weak disturbance rotating through the mid/upper flow combined with some lingering cold air aloft could generate isolated showers in the higher terrain in the afternoon. Not very confident in this scenario since all guidance has persistantly been overdoing QPF, and as mentioned, we have ridging building in.
228 PM CDT Tue Oct 8 2019 Scattered storms possible this afternoon and overnight as dampening shrtwv trof moves east from AZ. Low- level thermal ridging will promote a warming trend Wed-Thur (temps well above normal) with mid-level clouds Wed limiting heating some. The big change will occur late Thur night/early Fri morning when a strong cold front moves through. Much cooler Fri PM, 55-65 SE NM/PB, 60s and 70s lower elevations of the Trans Pecos and mostly in the 50s for mountainous areas.
The main focus of the forecast remains on the northwest upper trough and its associated push of Alaskan air through the region. Higher-resolution models are somewhat faster with the cold front and would expect them to have a greater handle on the dense airmass.
332 PM EDT Tue Oct 8 2019 High pressure will build to the north of the region. The interaction of the old frontal boundary and developing low pressure off the East Coast will make for some uncertainty to the forecast for southeastern PA for the middle and latter portion of this week.
214 PM EDT Tue Oct 8 2019 Lingering showers are possible through tonight for the southeastern ridges as low pressure crosses the mountains.
357 PM EDT Tue Oct 8 2019 High pressure will remain just northeast of the region and will keep the weather fair for much of the week.
1243 PM CDT Tue Oct 8 2019 A sprawling high pressure system currently centered over the Ohio Valley will continue to dominate the surface weather pattern through Wednesday. The ridge axis will slowly shift to the southeast through the short term, which in conjunction with a strengthening low over the Plains, will turn the low level flow back to the south.
152 PM CDT Tue Oct 8 2019 Another very nice October day across the area brought to you by sprawling high pressure extending westward from the eastern Great Lakes. Breezy south winds on the back side of this high and ample sunshine helping to produce temperatures in the mid 60s to lower 70s. High pressure anchored over the eastern Great Lakes and approaching low pressure over the Plains will continue to produce southerly flow over the region through Wednesday.
126 PM EDT Tue Oct 8 2019 Lingering showers are possible for the southeastern ridges into tonight.
At the surface a leeward trough will remain nearly stationary across the western High Plains. With the lower levels remaining mixed expect another mild night with lows as warm as the lower 50s across eastern portions of north central. A warm front will develop northeast of the low from southwest into north central Nebraska. Here expect a cold front to be moving southeast across the area with highs only in the 50s. The cold front will overtake the warm front early Wednesday evening and begin to advance southeast toward southern Nebraska and northern Kansas. Strong forcing aided by a southerly low-level jet should initiate elevated convection north of the cold front by mid-evening roughly along I-80.
355 PM EDT Tue Oct 8 2019 Water vapor imagery reveals a long wave trough stretching southwest into the western Gulf of Mexico. The subtropical ridge has regained ground over the Western Caribbean with fresh to strong easterlies building across the basin. Confluence in the low level southwesterlies continues to support occasional convective bursts which have avoided the Middle and Upper Keys for most of the day. The upper trough will progress to the east tonight and Wednesday, and yet, the mean-layer thermal wind will remain parallel to the low level trough. This means the confluent southwesterlies over the Keys and the stationary trough will persist just to the north of the islands.
234 PM EDT Tue Oct 8 2019 Easterly flow will continue through Wednesday as strong high pressure over the Great Lakes retreats east into New England. Good news is that with a warmer start to the evening and temps likely not crossing over current dewpoints, fog should not be as dense as this morning.
By tomorrow, high pressure begins to build down the spine of the Appalachians. At the surface, high pressure centered over southeast Canada will build southward east of the Appalachians, putting the CWA in a wedge pattern. Aloft, a ridge of high pressure will remain in place and keep temperatures above normal.
A cold front to our north will move through Baker City and McCall around noon, Burns and Boise around 5 pm, and Twin Falls/Jerome around 11 pm - accompanied by gusty winds to around 35 mph and showers. The showers will occur primarily over the higher elevations of central Idaho. Snow levels will fall rapidly behind the front with light accumulations possible in the mountains, mainly in the West Central Mountain where a few inches are possible in the highest elevations. A cold front will swing through the region today, ushering in lowering ceilings, showers, and strong winds. Incoming cold front looks a little slower than before which will allow a little more time for warming ahead of it.
Overnight low temperatures are forecast to fall into the lower 50s areawide tonight with high temperatures on Wednesday forecast to climb into the lower 80s. Temperatures on Wednesday night to fall into the lower to middle 60s.
1221 PM CDT Tue Oct 8 2019 High pressure will be firmly in control through the majority of the TAF cycle for widespread VFR conditions.
A cold front that moved across the area yesterday was now positioned from east of the VA/NC Blue Ridge, to the upstate of SC and SE of Atlanta. At the same time, mid and upper level ridging will increase through mid week, setting up an omega blocking pattern over the Southeast.
141 PM PDT Tue Oct 8 2019 A dry cold front will move through the area Wednesday and Wednesday night bringing gusty winds and cooler temperatures.
/Tonight through Tuesday/ Main weather features in the upcoming days will be strong low pressure moving through the northern Plains that will bring precipitation followed by much colder and windy conditions late this week into at least the start of this weekend.
146 PM CDT Tue Oct 8 2019 /Through Wednesday/ Pleasant Fall like conditions will persist for the rest of today and into tonight as High Pressure will remain the dominant weather feature impacting North and Central Texas. On Wednesday, conditions will be warmer and more humid. The ridge of High Pressure to our east will move eastward and Low Pressure to our west will build slowly towards North Texas resulting in a deep southerly fetch. Afternoon high temperatures will be around 7 degrees warmer on Wednesday with highs reaching the mid to upper 80s. Winds are generally light and somewhat variable this afternoon due to the western periphery of a High Pressure ridge axis settled over North Texas. This is due to the High Pressure sliding eastward and Low Pressure to the west building towards North Texas.
238 PM EDT Tue Oct 8 2019 High pressure will build to the north of the region. The interaction of the old frontal boundary and developing low pressure off the East Coast will make for some uncertainty to the forecast for southeastern PA for the middle and latter portion of this week. Complex interaction of tropical convection, an old frontal zone, and a small upper level low just off the delmarva will be slower to move out. This will slow down the cold front from the large cutoff to the west this coming weekend.
1048 AM MDT Tue Oct 8 2019 Water vapor imagery shows a strong upper trough crossing BC Canada and pushing into the Pacific NW states. Zonal upper flow across the CWA is gradually becoming more southwesterly as the trough continues eastward. A strong cold front will push through Montana this afternoon and evening, cross over into the CWA late this evening into Wednesday morning.
A warmer day is in store across the CWA tomorrow. Enhanced low- level theta-E advection associated with the deepening upper-level low that will pivot across the northern Great Plains will result in temperatures reaching the lower 80s and lower 90s in the northwestern and southeastern areas of the CWA, respectively.
Dry and warmer weather expected through the end of the workweek. Next cold front this weekend. Stubborn cloudiness and light rain across the eastern half of the forecast area in ascent associated with wind max rounding the base of an upper level trough will continue through this evening. For now, leaned toward cooler overnight lows and higher fog chances across SE Ohio where confidence in better radiational cooling is expected with slightly warmer lows further east with fog confined mostly to river valleys. Wednesday will be a dry and warmer today with highs returning to the lower to mid 70s for most. Overall, dry and warmer weather in the short term period with upper ridging in place across the area.
1201 PM CDT Tue Oct 8 2019 High pressure will continue to dominate the weather pattern over the next couple of days.
High temperatures today should tap out in the low to mid 80s, under mostly clear skies.
240 PM CDT Tue Oct 8 2019 High pressure will continue to bring dry and mild weather to central and southeast Illinois, for tonight through Wednesday.
A strong low pressure system will move through the area tonight. Latest forecast guidance suggests the winds this afternoon into the evening may not be quite as strong as earlier anticipated, however we'll leave the wind advisory in effect as winds are expected to increase substantially overnight into Wednesday morning when the cold front arrives. Showers will move into the region from west to east as the cold front advances into the region. Then, we expect showers associated with the convergence band and low pressure area to move into the Snake Plain late tomorrow morning into the afternoon. The low pressure system will move away from the area Wednesday night with high pressure settling into the region for late week and early weekend.
609 PM CDT Tue Oct 8 2019 At 4 PM, skies were crystal clear under weak upper level ridging.
Temperatures will remain a bit warmer than average through Wednesday then cool off several degrees late in the week. Heading into Wednesday our attention will turn to the north and west as an upper level low and associated trough swings through the western US.
643 PM EDT Tue Oct 8 2019 High pressure will build to the north of the region. The interaction of the old frontal boundary and developing low pressure off the East Coast will make for some uncertainty to the forecast for southeastern PA for the middle and latter portion of this week.
Easterly flow will continue through Wednesday as strong high pressure over the Great Lakes retreats east into New England. Good news is that with a warmer start to the evening and temps likely not crossing over current dewpoints, fog should not be as dense as this morning.
The strong cold front, as of 2:30 PM this afternoon, has already blown through the Missouri River valley. In our SE zones, ahead of the front, winds are from the southwest and temperatures are in the low to upper 70s. Much colder air becomes entrenched over the region at large for the remainder of the week as the low pressure center sweeps through Wyoming and the Dakotas.
713 PM EDT Tue Oct 8 2019 High pressure ridging in from the north will bring a drier airmass into the region overnight.
This ridge will move off to the east tonight resulting in a gradual shift in the winds to the southeast across of the CWA by tomorrow afternoon. An upper trough currently dropping southeastward into the Pacific Northwest will move into the Central Rockies by late Wednesday Night. Then there will be an increase of mid level ascent across central and northeast Missouri ahead of the aforementioned upper low combined with low level moisture advection caused by the low to bring a chance of showers and thunderstorms.
1024 PM EDT Tue Oct 8 2019 High pressure ridging in from the north will bring a drier airmass into the region overnight.
609 PM EDT Tue Oct 8 2019 High pressure ridging in from the north will bring a drier airmass into the region overnight.
623 PM CDT Tue Oct 8 2019 High pressure will continue to bring dry and mild weather to central and southeast Illinois, for tonight through Wednesday.
745 PM EDT Tue Oct 8 2019 High pressure will remain just northeast of the region and will keep the weather fair for much of the week.
643 PM CDT Tue Oct 8 2019 Another very nice October day across the area brought to you by sprawling high pressure extending westward from the eastern Great Lakes. Breezy south winds on the back side of this high and ample sunshine helping to produce temperatures in the mid 60s to lower 70s. High pressure anchored over the eastern Great Lakes and approaching low pressure over the Plains will continue to produce southerly flow over the region through Wednesday.
1038 PM EDT Tue Oct 8 2019 High pressure will remain just northeast of the region and will keep the weather fair for much of the week.
Then late tonight to near sunrise on Wed morning, mesoscale models including the 01z HRRR and the 00z ARW blossom new convection over the Straits and near the Lower Keys, lifting showers and thunderstorms out to the north into the Gulf waters later in the morning and into the afternoon. A trough of low pressure draped from the extreme Southeast Gulf of Mexico into extreme South Florida will remain nearly stationary overnight.
811 PM EDT Tue Oct 8 2019 High pressure ridging in from the north will bring a drier airmass into the region overnight.
801 PM EDT Tue Oct 8 2019 Low clouds will continue to advect in from the north as high pressure remains anchored over New England.
High pressure to the north of Florida is continuing to support east winds, which will generally hold around 15 knots or less through the next couple of days.
/issued 228 PM CDT Tue Oct 8 2019/ Scattered storms possible this afternoon and overnight as dampening shrtwv trof moves east from AZ. Low- level thermal ridging will promote a warming trend Wed-Thur (temps well above normal) with mid-level clouds Wed limiting heating some. The big change will occur late Thur night/early Fri morning when a strong cold front moves through. Much cooler Fri PM, 55-65 SE NM/PB, 60s and 70s lower elevations of the Trans Pecos and mostly in the 50s for mountainous areas.
With more sun than clouds, a nice warmup is expected, with high temperatures rising into the lower 80s; above seasonal norms of ~77, not no where close to the hot levels we had last week. Slightly warmer Wednesday night with lows in the lower 60s.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 60 82 60 84 / 10 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 59 81 60 83 / 10 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 57 81 58 82 / 10 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 54 78 54 79 / 10 0 0 0.
502 PM EDT Tue Oct 8 2019 Lingering showers are possible through tonight for the southeastern ridges as low pressure crosses the mountains.
Aloft, a short wave trough is moving toward the East, with short wave ridging building in across the Mississippi Valley. Temperatures range from the lower to upper 50s. Drier and warmer weather is expected through the short term, as short wave ridging moves in across the Ohio and Tennessee valleys, with 500 mb heights on the increase. The low clouds will stick around through this morning, before gradually breaking up during the afternoon. Highs today will be in the low to mid 70s. Tonight will feature mostly clear skies, with lows generally in the low to mid 50s, with some patchy valley fog.
Tonight through Thursday Latest satellite imagery is showing clear skies from border to border this afternoon as high pressure stretches from central Texas to the Great Lakes. Meanwhile, southerly flow will become more pronounced on Wednesday as a deep upper trough drops into the northern Rockies. Precipitation is not expected on Wednesday but temperatures will be a little warmer and cloud cover will be a little more noticeable.
1010 PM CDT Tue Oct 8 2019 Another very nice October day across the area brought to you by sprawling high pressure extending westward from the eastern Great Lakes. Breezy south winds on the back side of this high and ample sunshine helping to produce temperatures in the mid 60s to lower 70s. High pressure anchored over the eastern Great Lakes and approaching low pressure over the Plains will continue to produce southerly flow over the region through Wednesday.
Southeast winds will begin to increase on Wednesday, continuing into Thursday, as low pressure begins to form over the High Plains.
154 AM EDT Wed Oct 9 2019 High pressure will remain just northeast of the region and will keep the weather fair for much of the week.
Otherwise, morning clouds will gradually break up across the area, and tonight will be dry as upper level ridging builds in with a mostly clear to partly cloudy sky.
Otherwise, skies clear by the afternoon allowing temperatures to warm up into the low to mid 80s, which is above climatological norms for this time of year. The main story for the first half of the short term period will be mild and dry weather with afternoon highs in the low to mid 80s and overnight lows in the lower 60s.
Low level thermal ridging and downslope flow will help push temperatures soaring to near record to record high temperatures this afternoon and Thursday afternoon. By Thursday night another strong cold front is forecast to plunge through the region as the upper system continues to track across the northern plains.
As of 9PM MDT the cold front has pushed through much of the Treasure Valley with wind gusts of 30 to 40 mph. There is some indication of light precipitation (sprinkle/flurry) lingering in portions of the Snake Plain early Wednesday morning, but with temperatures above freezing any light snow would melt.
357 AM CDT Wed Oct 9 2019 An active couple of days shaping up as a deep upper trough in the Pacific Northwest eventually tracks east across the plains. By late today additional storms may develop across western OK, which will expand east tonight as warm advection begins to strengthen ahead of approaching trough. Strong cold front will be approaching the area by Thursday afternoon with continued northward moisture transport resulting in an axis of moderate instability spreading into eastern OK ahead of the front.
Winds will remain light and generally from the east as the high builds east/northeast through the area. Large high pressure centered over Ontario with ridging extending back through the area will dominate the weather through Thursday with mainly clear skies, cool nights and mild days. Some increase in clouds Thursday night and milder lows as surface ridging begins moving to the east allowing warmer and more moist air to begin advecting in ahead of next system.
1154 PM CDT Tue Oct 8 2019 At 4 PM, skies were crystal clear under weak upper level ridging.
The lower totals seem a bit more realistic. The Glacial Lakes region may also get some freezing rain as bufr soundings indicate as much for Thursday and Thursday night before it all turns to snow as cold air comes racing in.
A trough of low pressure will extend across the southern Florida peninsula today. while a cold front will sink slowly south across north Florida.