Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
217 PM MDT Wed Mar 17 2021 The entire region has fallen under northwest flow aloft, as a ridge of high pressure encroaches the Great Basin. Residual moisture, weak forcing and orographic lift will continue to generate popcorn cumulus firing off ridgetops, with few storms capable of producing periods of light snow through this afternoon. On Thursday, the ridge axis moves overhead and, as a result, high/low temperatures will rise back above seasonal averages. Expect passing mid to high level clouds as upper level moisture spills over the ridge of high pressure, though, there will be minimal chance for precipitation through the remainder of the short term.
The primary concern heading into Thursday will be the low relative humidity possibly enhancing fire weather conditions for many areas along and north of I-94.
1229 PM MST Wed Mar 17 2021 A warming trend will occur over the next few days with a return to above normal temperatures by Thursday as high pressure builds across the region.
202 PM CDT Wed Mar 17 2021 A mid/upper trough over western Oklahoma early this afternoon is progged to move eastward into northern Arkansas this evening. widespread precipitation is expected to fill in on the backside of this system during the afternoon hours and continue through the evening hours with an intense deformation band expected to develop on the northwest side of the mid/upper trough. A mid/upper ridge is progged to build into the central CONUS late in the week and into the weekend bringing dry and mild conditions to the area.
Temperatures across the region are generally in the lower to middle 30s. With sfc temps in the near or below freezing, will continue to periodically assess the area for heavier precipitation that may be leading to impacts. The remains of the potent closed upper low from early this week still meanders over MN into eastern Dakotas while continuing to weaken and open as it crawls eastward today. As the low exits, clouds are expected to lessen from northwest to southeast this afternoon. Upper ridging currently seen in WV imagery over the Northern Rockies into Canadian High Plains will build into the Dakotas advecting a very dry air mass comprised of PW less than 0. Ensemble guidance continues to paint a warm and breezy to windy end of the week as upper ridging and tightening pressure gradient develop across the northern plains.
So far snow accumulation has struggled somewhat with temperatures at or above freezing and snowfall rates only light to moderate. Some increase in intensity and coverage has been noted over the last hour as forcing maximizes on the backside of the upper low. Snow will taper off by this evening as the upper low continues eastward.
Temperatures are mainly ranging in the 30s with a few spots east in the lower 40s. With strong upper ridging over the Rockies progged to shift east overnight into Thursday, do expect a slow clearing trend in clouds during the evening hours.
339 PM CDT Wed Mar 17 2021 Cold front racing across the area currently with a line of tstorms extending from Rapides to Cameron Parishes, with cells well out ahead of the line. In the wake of todays cold front, cool and dry weather can be expected to prevail for several days.
High pressure building in across SETX with a round of early Spring very severe weather across LA/MS/AL tonight and Thursday. Weather in SETX should be dominated by clear skies and dry northwesterly winds as a second cold front pushes through the region tonight. Dewpoints will be much lower with very dry air getting wrapped up into the low to the east from TX and expect afternoon humidity Thursday to park in the 23-40 percent range for most of the area. In the wake of this latest frontal passage, NW winds and a high pressure is expected to settle in over our area and bring with it some cooler and drier conditions through the weekend.
- Quieter and warmer weather this weekend. Despite all these very favorable features of this system, temperatures in the lowest part of the atmosphere will likely remain above freezing with temperatures at the surface dipping into the low to mid 30s. This lowers temperatures into the mid 30s and dewpoints into the lower 30s during the heaviest precipitation. The intense upward vertical motions should dynamically cool the atmosphere and allow temperatures to be cooler within the heaviest areas of precipitation. With this cooler trend, snow accumulations look likely from eastern Kansas through west central Missouri. These amounts will be most likely on grassy surfaces with lower amounts on the relatively warmer paved/cement roads. With temperatures only dipping into the mid 30s, it will take higher snowfall rates to overcome the relatively warmer pavement temperatures, cutting into accumulations.
1005 AM MST Wed Mar 17 2021 Updated Aviation A warming trend will occur over the next few days with a return to above normal temperatures by Thursday as high pressure builds across the region.
Thursday as high pressure begins to push into west texas, the pressure gradient will remain elevated across the northeastern third to half of our area at 10-20 mph with gusts of 20-30 mph. Temperatures will be cooler, maxing out in the mid to upper 60s north and low to mid 70s south and west.
212 PM MDT Wed Mar 17 2021 A strong 500 MB Ridge will build over the region the next couple of days producing a dry warming trend.
1056 AM MDT Wed Mar 17 2021 Upper ridge is building over the Rockies with northerly flow over the forecast area. Back edge of upper trof over the southern Plains is producing some light precipitation over south central SD, which will diminish during the afternoon.
Overnight skies will be clearing out with cooler temperatures arriving on the shift to NW. Highs tomorrow will be cooler than average and for a couple of days.
Temps will cool considerably tonight with some near to below freezing temps for tomorrow AM across the northern tier of our forecast area. Weak ridging returns for the rest of the week and early part of the weekend with slightly below normal temps in wake of the disturbance for Thu/Fri as northeast to easterly flow will keep 850mb temps on the cool side.
An upper ridge will continue the warming trend today with highs in the 50s to lower 60s at most valley locations, which is around 5 degrees above normal.
1158 AM CDT Wed Mar 17 2021 Latest radar imagery shows quiet conditions returning to the region as precipitation exits to the northwest, with temperatures hovering at or just below freezing. Much like yesterday, expect patchy to dense fog to be possible through mid-morning, with mostly cloudy skies forecast to prevail throughout the day as remnants of yesterdays upper level low continue to wobble eastward. Aside from this, models also show a robust upper level low over the central CONUS progged to move eastward throughout the day, causing severe storms to be possible across the lower Mississippi Valley. Highs today will be a touch warmer than yesterday, with values forecast to climb into the upper 30s to low 40s.
332 PM EDT Wed Mar 17 2021 A weak cold front will very gradually move southward through Maine and New Hampshire tonight and Thursday. A low pressure system will move eastward just south of this front Thursday night.
The main line has cleared the forecast area with the cold front gusting winds in E TX. Overnight skies will be clearing out with cooler temperatures arriving on the shift to NW. Highs tomorrow will be cooler than average and for a couple of days.
Tonight: Fairly quiet weather over our CWA today as compared to places to our south and southeast with ongoing convection ahead of a potent eastward moving upper low.
As a cold front approaches, gusty southerly winds will pick up later tonight, with rain and high elevation snow spreading across the area.
740 PM EDT Wed Mar 17 2021 A weak cold front will very gradually move southward through Maine and New Hampshire tonight and Thursday. A low pressure system will move eastward just south of this front Thursday night.
306 PM MDT Wed Mar 17 2021 The upper trough continues to advance east over Oklahoma today and with subsidence and ridging behind it there is drying, clearing and warming across the area. Fog is possible tomorrow morning, especially in the northeast plains, due to the usual mechanism of moisture under radiation inversions in the low lying areas with light morning winds.
653 PM CDT Wed Mar 17 2021 A mid/upper trough over western Oklahoma early this afternoon is progged to move eastward into northern Arkansas this evening. widespread precipitation is expected to fill in on the backside of this system during the afternoon hours and continue through the evening hours with an intense deformation band expected to develop on the northwest side of the mid/upper trough. A mid/upper ridge is progged to build into the central CONUS late in the week and into the weekend bringing dry and mild conditions to the area.
Issued by National Weather Service Riverton WY 535 PM MDT Wed Mar 17 2021 Latest water vapor loop was showing a quite a bit of ridging building over the Rockies which is a big relief from our recent snowstorm that took place a few days ago. Even though the upper level ridge will bring quite a bit of sunshine along with higher sun angle, temperatures will be slow to recover, due to strong albedo effects.
527 PM MDT Wed Mar 17 2021 The entire region has fallen under northwest flow aloft, as a ridge of high pressure encroaches the Great Basin. Residual moisture, weak forcing and orographic lift will continue to generate popcorn cumulus firing off ridgetops, with few storms capable of producing periods of light snow through this afternoon. On Thursday, the ridge axis moves overhead and, as a result, high/low temperatures will rise back above seasonal averages. Expect passing mid to high level clouds as upper level moisture spills over the ridge of high pressure, though, there will be minimal chance for precipitation through the remainder of the short term.
608 PM CDT Wed Mar 17 2021 A few clouds to broken CIGs around 4k ft are lingering around, but will move out from west to east as an upper level low pressure system moves into eastern Oklahoma. Satellite imagery shows the upper level low over east central Oklahoma with some lingering wrap around moisture across the eastern half of the Panhandles. Tomorrow the Panhandles will be under northwest flow aloft with surface winds remaining from the north northwest as the closed low continues to move further northeast towards the Mid-Atlantic. Lingering breezy winds tomorrow in the eastern Panhandles with some mixing of the lower boundary layer winds. Temperatures today should rise in the upper 30s and even the lower 40s for areas that can break out of the cloud cover today and see some sunshine.
Tomorrow will be warmer than today, with temps 10-15 degrees above normal.
1100 PM EDT Wed Mar 17 2021 The Florida Keys remain just on the western periphery of a ridge axis extending from a broad area of high pressure over the central Atlantic. In addition, the speed convergence is leading to mass convergence in the lowest levels.
Clouds will continue to clear southward as drier and warmer air moves in from the north. The primary concern heading into Thursday will be the low relative humidity possibly enhancing fire weather conditions for many areas along and north of I-94.
Even with the ridge building over the next few days, temperatures will be a bit cooler than they normally be as return southerly flow over areas with snow cover will moderate the warming.
556 PM MDT Wed Mar 17 2021 Building high pressure aloft will bring dry/clear weather to our region tonight. JKL A strong 500 MB Ridge will build over the region the next couple of days producing a dry warming trend.
527 PM MDT Wed Mar 17 2021 (18/00Z TAF period) High pressure ridging over the area will yield partly to mostly clear skies and VFR conditions through the period for all of north- central and SW MT.
/issued 339 PM CDT Wed Mar 17 2021/ Cold front racing across the area currently with a line of tstorms extending from Rapides to Cameron Parishes, with cells well out ahead of the line. In the wake of todays cold front, cool and dry weather can be expected to prevail for several days.
Issued by National Weather Service Riverton WY 540 PM MDT Wed Mar 17 2021 Latest water vapor loop was showing a quite a bit of ridging building over the Rockies which is a big relief from our recent snowstorm that took place a few days ago. Even though the upper level ridge will bring quite a bit of sunshine along with higher sun angle, temperatures will be slow to recover, due to strong albedo effects.
The cold front has yet to move through the state. Overcast conditions will continue as the low pressure system moves through north Arkansas.
/Issued 352 PM CDT Wed Mar 17 2021/ /Thursday Night through Wednesday/ The end of the week looks relatively quiet with high pressure in place across much of the Central CONUS.
A surge of high pressure tonight will keep winds elevated and shift them more to the north. A cold front has moved well east of the area with dry air pushing into the area. Temperatures will be a bit cooler tonight and tomorrow with lows in the mid 40s to the 50s. Highs for Thursday will still range from the low 70s to near 80.
Strong low pressure system will continue to move eastward through northern Arkansas this evening bringing a frontal boundary into the region. Directional shear is very minimal in the lower levels with strong 200 degree directional winds all the way up to 850 MB. Showers and storms will abruptly come to an end by late tonight as frontal boundary brings cooler and dryer air behind it. Low pressure system will race through the Tennessee valley on Thursday with ridging building over the Rockies.
Mid evening water vapor imagery/RAP analysis had the closed low spinning over the northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas state line. Surface analysis had the low just west of the Missouri bootheel and the trailing cold front was nearing the Mississippi river. The cold front will continue to sweep across the CWA tonight and the remaining storms and chance for rain will continue to taper off from the west. The cold front will knock temperatures and low level moisture down resulting in a much cooler start to the day Thursday.
SFC boundary and cold front set to push across/into the area through this period.
Strong cold front is bisecting our airspace from north to south attm with a very strong post frontal pressure gradient in its wake. Looking upstream, MVFR cloud deck in association with the upper level low pressure system moving our way as well so we will have this cloud cover and strong WNW sustained winds and stronger gusts to contend with through this TAF cycle. The main line has cleared the forecast area with the cold front gusting winds in E TX.
Cold front will approach the state on Thu with an increase in southerly winds during the day with gusty conditions (gusts 25 to 35 mph) expected Thu afternoon as well as showers with a few embedded thunderstorms (a few strong to potentially severe over the northern Nature Coast) pushing down the peninsula, from the Nature Coast late Thu morning to southern locations overnight Thu/early Fri morning. VCSH develops for northern terminals mid/late afternoon with approach of cold front expected Thu night. /issued 317 PM EDT Wed Mar 17 2021/ Warm and dry high pressure continues through tonight. A cold front will then move through the area later Thursday, with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms ahead and along the front Thursday afternoon through Thursday night.
812 PM MDT Wed Mar 17 2021 The upper level low has moved off across the mid-west states and has left Colorado with a building ridge to the west and increasing subsidence over the region. Temperatures overnight will dip into the teens and 20s with slightly warmer temps across south and western portion of Denver with the help of weak downsloping from southwesterly winds. Highs on Thursday will increase slightly from previous days with temperatures in the 40s across the plains and 30s in the high country. The upper trough continues to advance east over Oklahoma today and with subsidence and ridging behind it there is drying, clearing and warming across the area. Fog is possible tomorrow morning, especially in the northeast plains, due to the usual mechanism of moisture under radiation inversions in the low lying areas with light morning winds.
433 AM EDT Thu Mar 18 2021 A low pressure system will move across the area today bringing with it the potential for some heavy rain and severe weather. High pressure and dry conditions will be present for the weekend. There will be the potential for severe weather primarily across southeastern portions of the forecast area closer to the area of low pressure.
the center of the closed upper low is rotating over far NRN AR/SRN MO. Moisture is wrapping SE around the west side of this upper low over NWRN into NRN AR. This will likely be limited to the highest terrain where temps may drop into the mid 30s when this happens. Lows tonight will drop down into the low to mid 30s across the north. Expect warmer conditions on Fri afternoon with more sunshine expected.
Temps quite variable as winds becoming light with some spots in the low 30s and others around 30. The primary concern heading into Thursday will be the low relative humidity possibly enhancing fire weather conditions for many areas along and north of I-94. End of the week a ridge continues to build into the region, with dry conditions ensuing across eastern ND and west central/NW MN Friday. Under the ridge temperatures continue to warm, with pressure gradients strengthening.
945 PM PDT Wed Mar 17 2021 The weather will be dry and mild Thursday and Friday, then turn a little cooler over the weekend as a low pressure trough moves in from the north. The trough will deepen the marine layer for more low clouds west of the mountains, and bring gusty northwest winds to the mountain and deserts this weekend.
316 AM CDT Thu Mar 18 2021 An upper level trough is centered over northern Arkansas/southern Missouri and will continue to move east today.
Today: A dynamic upper level low has slid into far southeast Missouri overnight. Cold air aloft quickly filtered in on the back side of the system last night allowing for rapid cooling of the column to below freezing, with the exception of the layer closest to the surface.
329 AM CDT Thu Mar 18 2021 Current observations across the region reveal quiet conditions with temperatures hover at or just below freezing, as dry northerly winds continue to erode the stratus deck overhead. Shortly after daybreak, expect upper level ridging to gradually build in from the west, with winds forecast to become more northeasterly. Given the optimal conditions in place for radiational cooling, have overnight lows falling into the low to mid 20s. definitely a bit cooler than the past few nights. Expect much of the same in terms of quiet conditions and clear skies heading into the weekend, with southerly winds forecast to gradually ramp up as an upper level trough digs into the Rockies.
This may try to pull the stationary boundary northward ahead of the associated cold front which will move eastward through the entire area this evening. More severe thunderstorms could develop ahead of the cold front this evening with the best chance for tornadoes over north Mississippi. Some clearing will occur behind the cold front late tonight but more clouds and some showers are possible again on Thursday over parts of the area, especially northern areas, as a strong upper low moves across the area. Much cooler temperatures are expected late tonight through Friday.
Amplified high pressure system remains in control this weekend, keeping quiet weather conditions across our region.
An surface cold front was moving across the southern Mississippi River. With strong onshore flow on the coast, a High Risk of Rip Currents and High Surf Advisory will continue into Thursday, with the High Surf dropping at 6am/11z as the coming cold front moves generally east of the coastal portions of the forecast area and the strong onshore flow shifts offshore. Any residual rain should move east of the forecast area by noontime/17z, with a cooler/drier airmass moving over the forecast area as westerly low level flow shifts to more northwest to north.
The cold front is still back to the west and will move across the area early Thursday morning. Temperatures will drop down into the low to mid 50s near sunrise Thursday morning. The overall wx pattern is then expected to turn more quiet/seasonal heading towards the end of the work week, as a large area of high pressure out of the nrn Plains builds into the Midwest/OH Valley states. Afternoon highs Thu/Fri look to range from the mid 50/near 60F, while lows Thu night trend in the lower/mid 40s. The next chance of rain still looks to develop on Tue, as another cold front approaches from the west. Restricted flying conds remain in place heading into the evening hrs this Wed, as num/wide shra/tsra continue to spread NNE into the area ahead of a cold front approaching from the west.
07z WV satellite reveals an upper low over the Ozarks, a second trough off the Pacific Coast, and a ridge in the interim over the southern and central Rockies. At the surface, high pressure has begun to build in the wake of the Ozarks upper low, with residual gradient keeping winds in the 10 to 15 knot range out of the northwest. For Thursday, expect lingering cloudiness to decrease as drier conditions take over as the upper low departs to the east.
Precipitation, mainly in the form of rain, will become more widespread across southern Vermont by mid-day as a low pressure system along the Ohio River Valley. Very quiet conditions expected for the weekend as broad high pressure settles directly over the Northeast.
(Today and tonight) The potent upper-level trough has exited our area and the 08Z simple water vapor imagery depicts the center of the upper low located over far southern Missouri. Far eastern portions of our CWA has remained under the influence of the wrap-around moisture associated with the cyclone, as light rain/drizzle has persisted from Ponca City to Stillwater to Prague. The CAA coupled with the lingering stratus will keep high temperatures in the low to mid 50s across most of our Oklahoma counties today, though the NW areas that received snow are expected to be slightly cooler. Mostly clear skies over portions of southwest OK and western north TX will aid in slightly warmer temperatures this afternoon. The approaching upper ridge will keep skies mostly clear to partly cloudy tonight, and lows are forecast to be in the 30s.
1142 PM MDT Wed Mar 17 2021 The entire region has fallen under northwest flow aloft, as a ridge of high pressure encroaches the Great Basin. Residual moisture, weak forcing and orographic lift will continue to generate popcorn cumulus firing off ridgetops, with few storms capable of producing periods of light snow through this afternoon. On Thursday, the ridge axis moves overhead and, as a result, high/low temperatures will rise back above seasonal averages. Expect passing mid to high level clouds as upper level moisture spills over the ridge of high pressure, though, there will be minimal chance for precipitation through the remainder of the short term.
Lows Thursday night into Friday will fall into the 50s in the lower RGV and coastal regions, while the northern ranchlands will see lows fall into the upper 40s.
With temperatures near to above freezing (and pavements likely even warmer), no impacts are expected. Mostly clear skies should allow temperatures to dip into the low to mid 20s by Friday morning. Winds will turn to the south as mid/upper level ridging moves overhead.