Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
The latest surface analysis places a 1018mb low over southeast Iowa with a cold front extending southwest into Kansas. The upper level pattern is dominated by a large trough over the eastern two thirds of the country, with a high amplitude ridge over the west. CAMs are consistent with a line of showers and thunderstorms developing along an associated cold front. A trough will begin to dig across the Cascades late Friday night.
Through Friday morning, our entire region will lie between the outer periphery of a western Atlantic ridge axis and a trough sagging southeastward through the Gulf of Mexico.
Meanwhile, well to our north and northeast is a low pressure system moving offshore of the Canadian Maritime provinces. Back to the west there are a pair of high and low pressure centers moving across the Central Plains and Great Lakes Region. Otherwise, visible satellite shows fair weather cu and strato-cu developing across the island chain, most notably over the Lower Keys. This ridge axis will weaken and retreat east through the day today and as such breezes will go light and variable this afternoon and evening. Thereafter, high pressure will slide into the southeast U. As the high pressure emerges over the Atlantic, breezes will become more easterly, while maintaining moderate breezes. If the low level moisture is adequate, then a line of showers and thunderstorms could erupt along relic afternoon cumulus boundaries.
910 AM EDT Thu May 6 2021 Low pressure will exit across the Maritimes today.
330 AM MDT Thu May 6 2021 The high amplitude upper ridge over the western U. moves over the Rockies late this afternoon and flattens somewhat as it moves over the High Plains region on Friday with the approach of an upper low center in the Pacific Northwest with a trough extending into the southwest U. The low center stalls over the U.
An upper level longwave trough remains in place over the eastern half of the CONUS this morning. At the surface, a cold front moved into northeastern KS overnight and is expected to progress southeastward through the forecast area by about 12Z (7 AM) today. High pressure will move southeast into Arkansas tonight as lee cyclogenesis commences east of the Colorado Rockies.
Today Through Friday Night With large-scale mid/upper ridging persisting over the west and large-scale troughing over the east, northwest flow aloft continues for much of the central CONUS. Surface ridging will ease in from the Plains behind the front and offer generally pleasant weather through at least Friday. Temperatures near average today will cool to a few degrees below average by late week before surface ridging moves east and we return to southerly flow. By Friday night, the mid/upper ridge to our west will begin to collapse and the ramp up of warm air advection ahead of a developing trough suggests increasing thunder chances over northwestern AR.
/Issued 448 AM EDT Thu May 6 2021/ The cold front has finally pushed south of the area and cool Northwesterly flow has set up.
403 AM MDT Thu May 6 2021 The high amplitude upper ridge over the western U. moves over the Rockies late this afternoon and flattens somewhat as it moves over the High Plains region on Friday with the approach of an upper low center in the Pacific Northwest with a trough extending into the southwest U. The low center stalls over the U.
A weak cold front has shifted, or will soon shift winds from the northeast at most TAF sites before it dissipates and winds become southeasterly once again around 18Z. /issued 330 AM CDT Thu May 6 2021/ Upper ridging is centered over Arizona and New Mexico, and a broad upper trough is over the eastern half of the country. The upper ridge becomes centered over Texas on Friday with temperatures warming up a little from the previous day.
This should push high temperatures into the lower 70s across most of the plains, with 60s in the foothills and mountain valleys, and upper 40s and 50s over the mountains. Mostly clear skies will persist through tonight as the ridge axis moves across the state. Friday, Colorado will be under the axis of the ridge and the warmest conditions of the period. There will be strong mid level instability with steep lapse rates over 9 C/km in many areas, and there should be enough mid level moisture on the back end of the ridge to support the development of isolated thunderstorms over the higher terrain during the afternoon. These storms will move over the plains in the evening but the lower levels will be dry, so expect mostly virga and gusty outflow winds from high-based storms.
704 AM EDT Thu May 6 2021 Below average temperature is expected through the weekend with another chance of rain tonight with a crossing cold front. A clearing sky and calm wind under building high pressure has supported areas of fog, especially along river valleys, though diurnal mixing should improve visibility as the morning progresses. A dry day is anticipated, with upper troughing maintaining below average temperature through the period.
553 AM MDT Thu May 6 2021 The high amplitude upper ridge over the western U. moves over the Rockies late this afternoon and flattens somewhat as it moves over the High Plains region on Friday with the approach of an upper low center in the Pacific Northwest with a trough extending into the southwest U. The low center stalls over the U.
Weakening northwest flow aloft with upper ridge axis moving to the Texas-New Mexico border late tonight. An upper level high pressure ridge amplifying today through the intermountain west will move to near the Texas-New Mexico border tonight with slight mid level warming likely creating too much of a bump in the sounding profile to generate isolated showers, per GFS runs at least. RMcQueen Upper ridging will begin to move overhead tomorrow and will allow for highs to warm into the mid/upper 80s.
520 AM MDT Thu May 6 2021 The well-advertised ridge of high pressure will amplify overhead across eastern Utah and western Colorado today. Even with a few high clouds filtering underneath the ridge this afternoon, strong warm air advection will result in a significant warming trend with high temperatures jumping some 5 to 10 degrees warmer than yesterday's readings, or 10 to 15 degrees above normal for early May. Friday morning will see the ridge weaken and slide east of the Continental Divide as the next upper level trough digs into the Pacific Northwest. However, as forecast soundings remain dry in the lower levels, little to no precipitation is expected. High temperatures will continue to run hot for this time of year with some of the lower valleys climbing into the upper 80s to low 90s Friday afternoon.
High pressure is building into the region as skies clear out this morning. Prior discussion below: Today and tonight: Continued cooler than normal and mostly dry through the period. This cold front was expected to be dry but model consensus suggests a few light showers may develop along it and move into our northern most zones before dissipating early this evening. With northwest flow aloft tonight and a >1024mb high building into the region from the northwest in the wake of the cold front, temperatures are expected to bottom out colder than normal in the upper 40s northeast to the lower 50s elsewhere. As for today, under partly sunny skies and a lighter north wind, temperatures are expected to top out several degrees warmer than yesterday but, fall short of seasonal norms.
417 AM MDT Thu May 6 2021 The transitory ridge continues it's eastward push today, bringing dry and warm conditions to the area. Highs will generally be 10 to 15 degrees warmer than normal this afternoon. With the warmer temperatures and drier conditions the main concern today is elevated fire weather, but relatively weaker wind will be the mitigating factor and no highlights are expected at this time. On Friday the ridge axis will push through with the approaching trough.
Discussion: A few scattered showers and thunderstorms moved through overnight and early this morning, associated with the cold front pushing into northwest Missouri. Temperatures will once again be mild with highs topping out in the low to mid 60s under mostly sunny skies and breezy northerly winds. The weekend set-up looks interesting with an upper low over the Hudson Bay and another trough digging through BC and western Alberta. The ridge between these lows will get pinched off as the western trough continues to dive into western Montana.
NW winds will increase today with gusts to 20 kts possible, then decrease and become more variable overnight as high pressure settles in behind the front. Today Through Friday Night With large-scale mid/upper ridging persisting over the west and large-scale troughing over the east, northwest flow aloft continues for much of the central CONUS. Surface ridging will ease in from the Plains behind the front and offer generally pleasant weather through at least Friday. Temperatures near average today will cool to a few degrees below average by late week before surface ridging moves east and we return to southerly flow. By Friday night, the mid/upper ridge to our west will begin to collapse and the ramp up of warm air advection ahead of a developing trough suggests increasing thunder chances over northwestern AR.
315 AM PDT Thu May 6 2021 Low pressure moving into the Pacific Northwest will bring stronger winds today along with isolated thunderstorms and blowing dust well east of Highway 395.
We have a high pressure centered to the south and as it continues to drift away from the area we will see widespread low level westerly flow. Re-oriented, the western CONUS upper level longwave trof is directing energy into a northwest to southeast-aligned deformation zone aloft, of which this CWA is partially under. Over the eastern half of the CONUS, an anomalously deep and somewhat out of place (for this time of year) broad upper level longwave trof is carved out from eastern Canada all the way down to Florida.
Perceptibly warmer this morning with only a few 30s dotting the map when the freezing mark had made a few appearances by this time 24 hours ago. Northwestern winds will relax after dark tonight as the high passes west to east and return flow develops by Friday morning.
VFR conditions are expected through the period as a high pressure remains in control. Area of high pressure along the surface will remain in place across SE Texas today while a mid to upper level ridge builds overhead through Friday. Lows tonight will be in the low 60s for most of the region except the northernmost counties, where lows will likely stay in the upper 50s.
Cold front, currently located over far southeast Kansas, will push south of a MLC/FSM line by late morning. A weak cold front will move through the area this afternoon and evening, and there is a slight chance for a few showers and thunderstorms to affect parts of northwest Arkansas this afternoon.
/issued 336 AM CDT Thu May 6 2021/ SHORT TERM (Now through Friday): Mid level ridging over Texas will provide subsidence aloft. At the surface, high pressure continues to build southward today before sliding eastward on Friday. Tonight will be mild with lows generally in the lower 60s across the northern Ranchlands to mid to upper 60s to around 70 in the Rio Grade Valley and along the coast.
511 AM MDT Thu May 6 2021 Current surface map places high pressure across the Northern Plains with a few clouds and chilly temperatures. For today into Friday, upper level ridge shifts into the plains with low level temperatures peaking Friday afternoon. Upper trough digging through the Pacific Northwest sends initial impulse into the western Dakotas Friday night.
Tonight through Friday night: A mid-level ridge in place over the interior west this afternoon will shift east into the high plains on Friday. Friday night lows will be a bit warmer; in low 40s to around 50.
1115 AM MDT Thu May 6 2021 Current surface map places high pressure across the Northern Plains with a few clouds and chilly temperatures. For today into Friday, upper level ridge shifts into the plains with low level temperatures peaking Friday afternoon. Upper trough digging through the Pacific Northwest sends initial impulse into the western Dakotas Friday night.
This system departs to the east overnight and early Friday, with brief surface ridging translating east through the region during the day Friday bringing fair wx for most of the day.
1123 AM MDT Thu May 6 2021 The well-advertised ridge of high pressure will amplify overhead across eastern Utah and western Colorado today. Even with a few high clouds filtering underneath the ridge this afternoon, strong warm air advection will result in a significant warming trend with high temperatures jumping some 5 to 10 degrees warmer than yesterday's readings, or 10 to 15 degrees above normal for early May. Friday morning will see the ridge weaken and slide east of the Continental Divide as the next upper level trough digs into the Pacific Northwest. However, as forecast soundings remain dry in the lower levels, little to no precipitation is expected. High temperatures will continue to run hot for this time of year with some of the lower valleys climbing into the upper 80s to low 90s Friday afternoon.
Warmer, more seasonal temperatures can be expected by Friday afternoon. There will be a slight chance of light showers Friday afternoon, mainly across east central MO and southwest IL along a backdoor type cold front that will sag southward into our area.
The clearing will likely be short-lived as a cold front approaches from the northwest by mid to late evening. Overnight lows are expected to be in the 30s across most of the area, warmest across east-central, where a few locations may remain in the low 40s. Friday Night Through Thursday High pressure will bring light winds and mostly clear skies across the region Friday night.
126 PM EDT Thu May 6 2021 Below average temperatures expected and periods of rain through the first half of the weekend with a pair of cold fronts.
233 PM MDT Thu May 6 2021 Latest analysis shows an upper ridge over the region with dry high pressure at the surface. The upper trough over the Pacific Northwest will send an initial impulse into the western Dakotas on Friday night.
Lows early Friday morning will be in the mid-40s to mid-50s as the upper trough passage brings another dose of CAA. The upper flow and surface winds will remain northwesterly on Friday as an area of high pressure centered over the ArkLaMiss slowly shifts eastward. Highs on Friday will range from the lower to mid-60s north to the lower to mid-70s south, which is around 8 to 15 degrees below climatological norms.
An airmass change will begin to take place overnight as strong temperature and weak moisture advection develops, resulting in a warm frontal boundary developing over the area overnight.
The mid to upper level ridge axis from northern Mexico into the Rockies tonight will translate eastward to the plains states down to south Texas Friday night. Southerly low level flow will increase to 25-30 knots Friday night as low pressure deepens over the central high plains.
This will allow for clear skies, low humidity and high temperatures in the low 70s. Unfortunately, this wont last for long as a trough begins to dig across the Cascades by Friday night.
1043 AM MDT Thu May 6 2021 The transitory ridge continues it's eastward push today, bringing dry and warm conditions to the area. Highs will generally be 10 to 15 degrees warmer than normal this afternoon. With the warmer temperatures and drier conditions the main concern today is elevated fire weather, but relatively weaker wind will be the mitigating factor and no highlights are expected at this time. On Friday the ridge axis will push through with the approaching trough.
336 PM CDT Thu May 6 2021 Weak high pressure is building into the center portion of the country, but a quick wave moving through will be dragging a front into the northwest later this evening.
Low pressure passing by to the north will bring gusty winds Friday, resulting in enhanced fire danger. Low pressure in the southeastern Gulf of Alaska today will roll east along the Canadian border Friday, dragging a trough and associated cold front across our area. Wildfire concerns are not as great there due to sparse fuels, but there could be a short period of strong westerly winds in the late afternoon or early evening as the cold front passes and the flow is enhanced through the Tehachapi Gap.
The arrival of a vigorous cold front Thursday afternoon and evening will bring gusty winds and the chance for evening showers and possibly a few thunderstorms. Cooler, breezy, and showery weather will take place Friday and persist into the weekend. The cold front is expected to cross the Cascades around 5pm and slowly transverse the region towards Idaho throughout the evening. With the upcoming cold front, winds will shift abruptly to be out of the west-southwest with gusts 15-25 kts between 21z-00z.
VFR conditions continue as high pressure slides to the north producing clear skies. Area of high pressure along the surface will remain in place across SE Texas today while a mid to upper level ridge builds overhead through Friday. Lows tonight will be in the low 60s for most of the region except the northernmost counties, where lows will likely stay in the upper 50s.
242 PM MDT Thu May 6 2021 An amplified ridge is sitting over the Great Basin to the Yukon this afternoon with a fairly strong downstream blocking low over the Hudson Bay region. This upstream system will squeeze the ridge up against the downstream block over the next 24-36 hours.
As of 1000 AM CDT, low pressure is centered near PIA with a cold front stretching south across IJX then towards south central MO. Any severe threat will end by mid to late this afternoon as the cold front exits to our east.
1130 AM MDT Thu May 6 2021 The well-advertised ridge of high pressure will amplify overhead across eastern Utah and western Colorado today. Even with a few high clouds filtering underneath the ridge this afternoon, strong warm air advection will result in a significant warming trend with high temperatures jumping some 5 to 10 degrees warmer than yesterday's readings, or 10 to 15 degrees above normal for early May. Friday morning will see the ridge weaken and slide east of the Continental Divide as the next upper level trough digs into the Pacific Northwest. However, as forecast soundings remain dry in the lower levels, little to no precipitation is expected. High temperatures will continue to run hot for this time of year with some of the lower valleys climbing into the upper 80s to low 90s Friday afternoon.
The upper level ridge continues to build east over the Mountain West with northwest flow aloft. The upper ridge will be over the Panhandles tomorrow, but models are hinting at the ridge breaking down as it comes off the higher terrain in Colorado and New Mexico.
1038 AM CDT Thu May 6 2021 A diffuse cloud deck associated with a pre-frontal trough continues to diminish across the Red River into the Ark-La-Tex this morning. Look for this trend to continue through the morning, before clouds diminish with the passage of the trough this afternoon. Aside from this, 5 to 10 kt northerly winds today will become light/variable after sunset as high pressure settles over the region.
125 PM PDT Thu May 6 2021 Low pressure moving into the Pacific Northwest will bring stronger winds today along with isolated thunderstorms and blowing dust east of Highway 395. Lighter breezes continue into Friday with cooler temperatures for Friday and the weekend. Low pressure trough pushing into the west coast will bring a mix of breezy winds and threat for a few thunderstorms into this evening. The trough will move overhead Friday with cooler conditions and some gusty west-northwest resurfacing Friday. Last piece of energy from this trough will pass through Friday night and shift the winds to the north-northeast.
210 PM CDT Thu May 6 2021 Approaching cold front now on doorstep of FA, setting off active convection, strong-severe, across FA along/ahead of its approach. With freezing level near -8C and -20C level roughly 10K higher, large hail also possible along with damaging wind gusts. These will begin moderating again by tmrw night as a warm frontal boundary returns to the area, bringing the next chance of rain.
Precipitation ahead of cold front will move southeast of area this afternoon, with the cold front itself to the southeast of area by midnight. High pressure will build from the west northwest Tonight through Friday. Secondary troughing to the northeast on Friday will keep winds somewhat gusty.
This low pressure will drag a front through the area bringing brisk northwest winds for Friday with northeasterly winds along the lake. This surface convergence from these winds will be the area of focus for some more showers Friday afternoon as we become unstable and another 500 mb trough moves through. We'll dry out for Friday night with clearing skies and temperatures dropping into the the low to mid 30s with light winds.
High pressure continues to dominate the weather with calm and dry conditions. Today Through Friday Night With large-scale mid/upper ridging persisting over the west and large-scale troughing over the east, northwest flow aloft continues for much of the central CONUS. Surface ridging will ease in from the Plains behind the front and offer generally pleasant weather through at least Friday. Temperatures near average today will cool to a few degrees below average by late week before surface ridging moves east and we return to southerly flow. By Friday night, the mid/upper ridge to our west will begin to collapse and the ramp up of warm air advection ahead of a developing trough suggests increasing thunder chances over northwestern AR.
236 PM CDT Thu May 6 2021 Skies are expected to clear overnight while temperatures fall into the lower 40s.
A cold front will move through the area this afternoon and evening. Tonight and Friday will be showery and cool as an upper trough moves over the region.
featuring sharp ridging over the inter- mountain west and downstream troughing to the east of the MS Valley. Florida finds itself within the base of this trough. This "cold front" will really be primarily responsible for bringing some drier air to the region the next 48-60 hours.
Patchy fog expected to be present in the low elevation areas through the first hour of this TAF cycle. ABM Chattanooga Airport, TN 71 48 68 48 69 / 10 30 0 0 30 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 68 47 64 47 64 / 0 20 10 0 30 Oak Ridge, TN 68 46 64 45 64 / 0 20 10 10 30 Tri Cities Airport, TN 65 44 59 42 61 / 0 30 40 10 20.
106 PM PDT Thu May 6 2021 An upper level trough moving inland over California will result in stronger onshore flow, higher humidity, and cooler weather through the weekend.
Main concern through the remainder of the afternoon hours continues to revolve around the low relative humidity and breezy northwesterly winds.
Southwest flow aloft ahead of an offshore trough will bring warmer temperatures today, with highs still on track to reach well into the 80s across the valleys. A cold front will sweep through tonight, accompanied by gusty winds to around 40 mph.
230 PM EDT Thu May 6 2021 Below average temperatures expected and periods of rain through the first half of the weekend with a pair of cold fronts.
343 PM CDT Thu May 6 2021 High pressure is dominating the weather across the northern gulf coast this afternoon between a cold front over the north gulf and another boundary over the plains. The ridge will gradually shift east through Friday with the flow locally becoming more onshore by Friday afternoon.
234 PM CDT Thu May 6 2021 Skies will remain clear this afternoon and tonight as the upper- level ridge axis, which is was near the Four Corners region at 1830Z, moves closer to the area. As the upper-level ridge axis moves east over the Panhandles, it is expected to flatten some.