Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1036 AM EDT Sat Sep 30 2017 Dry conditions are forecast through the middle of the week as high pressure builds across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. Cool temperatures today will gradually increase over the next few days as a southerly flow develops behind the high.
The zonal pattern is anticipated to only last through Sunday before we return to southwest flow aloft as a a broad trough spreads across the western US.
/issued 405 AM CDT Sat Sep 30 2017/ Water vapor imagery shows weak ridging aloft over the ArkLaTex this morning, with a bit of a disturbance moving across our northern areas. Otherwise, expect another nice day across the region, with periodic sun shining through the high clouds, with temperatures similar to those of yesterday and remaining in the mid 80s. The threat of showers and thunderstorms returns to our southern and eastern parishes on Sunday afternoon, as an upper level low over the gulf slowly drifts to the west.
06Z surface data has high pressure over the Great Lakes with a frontal boundary from the Plains into the Ohio Valley. Quiet and dry conditions will be seen today and tonight as high pressure slowly moves into the Ohio Valley.
This should help to erode the low clouds allowing some surface heating to occur and lapse rates improve just a bit aloft, both of which will result in some meager instability.
915 AM EDT Sat Sep 30 2017 Low pressure will move across southern New England today and will present a good chance of light showers across New Hampshire and southernmost Maine. High pressure builds across the region tonight with frosty temperatures expected. This high will remain over the region into midweek providing fair weather and gradually warming temperatures. Highs will mainly be in the 50s, but would not be surprised if portions of Cheshire County into the higher terrain of western Hillsborough County remain in the 40s through at least early afternoon. Sunday looks like a stellar day with high pressure overhead and highs well into the 60s. Overall a very quiet weather pattern through the end of the week as high pressure dominates. Sunday night the trough of cold air aloft will begin to move east.
620 AM CDT Sat Sep 30 2017 A 500 mb low pressure, currently over MT, will push into south Canadian today.
/issued 344 AM CDT Sat Sep 30 2017/ WV imagery shows the upper trough has moved into ern MT, on its way to Canada by 00Z Sun. This will briefly transition SW flow aloft to zonal, before reverting back to SW as a secondary trough moves out of BC Sunday to replace the first.
An upper level ridge is moving east across the region this morning. At the surface, high pressure is centered over the Great Lakes and departing eastward. An upper level low will be opening up and drifting NE across WY/MT and into SD/ND today perhaps favoring a few showers across the region.
536 AM MDT Sat Sep 30 2017 08z surface analysis had high over the Great Lakes with low over southern BC, which had a frontal boundary into central NE and a lee trough into central WY. Water vapour loop showed upper low spinning across southeast MT moving northeast. Today, upper low moves northeast and weakens. Gradient will be rather tight with gusty southerly winds persisting over the SD plains and easing over northeast WY as the lee trough progresses east. Thermal ridge peaks with readings well into the 70s. Tonight, upper trough over southwest Canada into the Rockies will deepen. Sunday, upper trough continues to deepen as upper low develop over MT. -SHRA possible with TS across the south as cold front moves through rest of CWA.
However, with the center of the high over Lower Michigan placing Iowa more in the south-southeast flow and thus not a true WAA set up today. Deep trough over the Pacific Northwest and Northern Rockies remains stalled or very slow moving east with the aforementioned large high over the eastern CONUS blocking any eastern progression.
Location of the circulation center will bring the greatest chance for persistent rains across northern Volusia Co where the low level moisture convergence will be enhanced. The HRRR/WRF-ARW drift the vort center northward through sunrise Sunday, while the globals start off toward that end before shoving the system westward beginning by late afternoon or early evening beneath a high pressure ridge building into north Florida. Given the high water levels along the Saint Johns River, standing water conditions, and the overall high water table elsewhere, all of east central Florida will be very susceptible to rapid onset urban and poor drainage flooding, as the water simply has nowhere to go.
High pressure over the Great Lakes will move to the Mid Atlantic states tonight. A light sly flow will develop tonight as the high moves east with some high clouds expected late as the upper ridge moves east and and upper trough continues to move into the Great Plains. Temps will be slightly warmer than this morning.
The marine layer will continue to deepen through tomorrow with cooler conditions for the coastal strip and valleys. A low pressure system developing over the interior western states will bring stronger onshore flow with periods of gusty west winds in the mountains and deserts.
Lows tonight will be warmer and range from the lower forties to around fifty. Highs will range from the lower to middle sixties over northwest Wisconsin to the upper fifties to around 60 over much of northern Minnesota where clouds will be thickest and rain chances highest.
While it is still unsure exactly how these showers will evolve (especially related to coverage), feel confident enough to at least try and better time the higher PoPs. An upper level ridge is moving east across the region this morning. At the surface, high pressure is centered over the Great Lakes and departing eastward. An upper level low will be opening up and drifting NE across WY/MT and into SD/ND today perhaps favoring a few showers across the region.
High pressure centered over the Great Lakes is spilling south into the region while an upper level ridge axis sits just to the west. Some high clouds this morning will exit this afternoon and temps will climb into the lower 80s most places with low humidities.
The smaller upper level low center from the south is now centered over NE Montana and is in the process of being absorbed by the larger northern stream flow. A surface cold front will push across the region as an upper level trough deepens and becomes established across the western U. Additionally, due to abundant clouds and precipitation as well as associated height falls with the upper trough, expect considerably cooler temperatures on Sunday with highs only in the 50s, some 20 degrees lower when compared with Saturday.
/issued 452 AM CDT Sat Sep 30 2017/ Latest upper air analysis/water vapor satellite imagery showed upper ridging over NE Mexico/S TX with a distinct upper low over the East Central Gulf. At the SFC, an expansive high was centered over the northern Great Lakes, with a weak low pressure trof over the central/southern FL peninsula. Upper low over the Gulf is forecast to sink toward the SW toward the Yucatan and Bay of Campeche tonight and Sunday, while the weak inverted trof over FL migrates WWD underneath low to mid level ridging building into the Mid Atlantic.
and Sunday Canadian high pressure was centered across northern WI early this morning. The frost advisory was verifying quite well over the north, where most observation sites were in the lower to middle 30s. A gradual moderation in temperatures is anticipated, with highs in the lower to middle 60s today and middle 60s to lower 70s on Sunday.
A marginally moist and unstable environment will combine with a very weak inverted trough moving westward along the Central Gulf Coast region to initiate at least shallow convection later today. /EC/ Prior discussion below: Today through Tonight: Latest satellite and rap imagery showed broad deep layer ridging across the region.
This moisture looks to be embedded within a near wly component along the ern fringe of an upper ridge axis over the Plains states, right around the H85 level. A reinforcing cold front layered across the AL/TN state line should also push swd thru the area later today, and may translate into some gusty winds at times near 20 MPH. The previously mentioned upper-level ridge will amplify all the way up into the Great Lakes will build across the region through the weekend.
Between departing s/wv trough and stronger impulse moving northeast over New Mexico, any additional rain activity should remain isolated. The large upper trough will remain quasi-stationary from the Great Basin into the northern plains while the southeast U. anticyclone drifts westward.
High pressure, both at the surface and aloft, will remain firmly entrenched across the region for the next several days and beyond. This ridging will bring mostly clear skies, light winds, and dry conditions to eastern Kentucky. Temperatures over the weekend look to be quite pleasant, with highs today ranging from the upper 60s to the lower 70s. Sunday should be a bit warmer, with highs on that day expected to top out in the low to mid 70s. Tonights lows will be quite chilly, with valley locations falling into the lower 40s, while the surrounding ridges bottom out in the mid to upper 40s. They all depict a renewal of the southeast ridging that we have seen for the latter part of summer.
944 AM EDT Sat Sep 30 2017 Low pressure moving off the New England coast will bring cool and breezy north to northwesterly winds over the Mid Atlantic today. A large area of high pressure over the Great Lakes will move over the eastern U. It will feel like fall today with cooler air riding in on breezy north to northwest winds. a little warmer in the cities, temperatures will only reach the 50s in the Highlands. Winds will diminish this evening as high pressure settles over the Mid Atlantic. October will start off with morning lows in the 40s except around 50 east of I-95, and possibly some upper 30s at the highest elevations in the Highlands. A beautiful day looks on tap for Sunday under high pressure over the east coast.
low pressure system will move through northern Arizona today.
already? At least we have a really nice start to the weekend today, with low level ridging overhead early this morning gradually sliding east. Just a very slight bump upward in the lower level thermal regime will support highs just a smidge above yesterday's readings - mainly 65 to 70. A tightening gradient should also allow for warmer temps than those noted out there early this morning (some spots in the lower 30s), with mainly 40s and lower 50s expected. Overall pattern looking a bit familiar to that of just about a week ago, featuring building upper ridging over the eastern half of the CONUS into midweek, while western CONUS troughing dominates.
1005 AM EDT Sat Sep 30 2017 High pressure over the central Great Lakes will move to the east coast by early in the week, the drift to the mid Atlantic States. The clouds associated with the trough aloft have been over northwest PA and points east early this morning. These clouds will shift east this morning as the trough shifts east leaving just the lake effect clouds behind. Forecast high temperatures will be near the higher guidance since 850 mb temperatures are progged to warm to between 3-6C this afternoon. High pressure will be overhead early tonight and winds will become light and variable. Lows generally 35 to 40 except a little warmer in town and along the lakeshore. Forecast high temperatures will again be on the high side of guidance as 850 mb temperatures are progged to warm to 9-12C.
1025 AM EDT Sat Sep 30 2017 Canadian high pressure will build into central NC from the north through Sunday, then linger overhead through mid-week. Canadian high pressure beginning to extend into central NC from the north northwest int he wake of the exiting sfc cold front. We may see a few more clouds over the far NE and E CWA as a pocket of moisture now correlated with precip over NY and adjacent areas tracks around the 700 mb anticyclone, pushing southward then SSW down the NC coastal area. Expect lows Sun night of 50-57, with dewpoints creeping back up as the air mass modifies and the low level flow draws in more Atlantic moisture.
948 AM EDT Sat Sep 30 2017 High pressure will shift into the mid-Atlantic through the weekend keeping us dry and cool/seasonal. Looking at upper 60s to near 70 west of the Blue Ridge to the middle 70s in the Piedmont/foothills areas today. Expect a dry, sunny day for the last day of September, with cold front to our east and a cool northwest breeze. Tonight, strong high pressure will build in from the north as the center moves from the Great Lakes into NY/PA. Lows tonight under clear skies will range from the mid 30s in the deeper sheltered valleys in the mountains, with upper 30s to lower 40s elsewhere west of the Blue Ridge, and mid to upper 40s east. High pressure, centered over the northeastern state, will wedge south into GA starting Sunday.
Changes in the pattern across the area begin today as a broad tropical trough of low pressure slowly lifts north and strong high pressure builds in from the north. Very moist boundary layer covers the entire area with dewpoints in the lower to mid 70s.
/BB/ Today through Tonight: Latest satellite and rap imagery showed broad deep layer ridging across the region.
An upper level trough will remain over the area over through the weekend. An upper level ridge will begin to build offshore on Sunday night.
Lows tonight will again drop into the lower to middle 50s. Southwest flow will return to the area on Sunday and will continue into the middle of the week as upper level ridge builds over the region.
Persistent NE winds will also aide in keeping temps a few deg warmer than earlier expected for lows.
Surface analysis this morning places a ridge of high pressure over the Great Lakes Region. High pressure centered over the Great Lakes is spilling south into the region while an upper level ridge axis sits just to the west. Some high clouds this morning will exit this afternoon and temps will climb into the lower 80s most places with low humidities.
712 AM EDT Sat Sep 30 2017 High pressure will shift into the mid-Atlantic through the weekend keeping us dry and cool/seasonal. Expect a dry, sunny day for the last day of September, with cold front to our east and a cool northwest breeze. Tonight, strong high pressure will build in from the north as the center moves from the Great Lakes into NY/PA. Lows tonight under clear skies will range from the mid 30s in the deeper sheltered valleys in the mountains, with upper 30s to lower 40s elsewhere west of the Blue Ridge, and mid to upper 40s east. High pressure, centered over the northeastern state, will wedge south into GA starting Sunday.
Lift from this feature, and from a cold front producing low-level upslope flow on the Serranias del Burro mountains, will produce scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms on the Rio Grande Plains this afternoon.
An upper trough was located over eastern Canada into the eastern Great Lakes and Ohio Valley while another upper trough was over the west. A weakening upper low pressure system has been lifting northward through the central Rockies over the past few days while another system digs into the Pacific Northwest. S across the High Plains. Today will be a little warmer than the past few days as low level warm advection develops on increasing southerly low level flow. The models keep a deep trough carved out over the western States into the northern Plains with southwest flow aloft continuing over the central High Plains. Disturbances lifting out of the base of the trough toward the northeast will push a cold front southward into the area from Nebraska into eastern Colorado on Sunday.
1022 AM CDT Sat Sep 30 2017 High pressure will remain to the east of the area into the rest of the weekend. The high will continue to bring quiet weather to the area during this time. Near normal temperatures are expected this afternoon and tonight, with slightly warmer values on Sunday. Onshore winds will bring slightly cooler readings near Lake Michigan each afternoon.
702 AM EDT Sat Sep 30 2017 High pressure over the central Great Lakes will move to the east coast by early in the week, the drift to the mid Atlantic States. The clouds associated with the trough aloft have been over northwest PA and points east early this morning. These clouds will shift east this morning as the trough shifts east leaving just the lake effect clouds behind. Forecast high temperatures will be near the higher guidance since 850 mb temperatures are progged to warm to between 3-6C this afternoon. High pressure will be overhead early tonight and winds will become light and variable. Lows generally 35 to 40 except a little warmer in town and along the lakeshore. Forecast high temperatures will again be on the high side of guidance as 850 mb temperatures are progged to warm to 9-12C.
After this weekend's dry weather and closer to normal end of September and early October temperatures, look for increasing moisture levels, rising rain chances and warmer overnight low temperatures as deep tropical moisture associated with a mid/ upper level eastern Gulf of Mexico system clearly evident by water vapor satellite imagery works its way westward and into our area.
with stronger southerly flow and even warmer temps. Expect highs generally in the lower 80s through the weekend.
Despite the high clouds, areas of fog are expected to develop across the northwestern counties this morning, so have mentioned this through mid morning for areas along and northwest of a Comanche to Bowie line.
A 500 mb low pressure, currently over MT, will push into south Canadian today.
For 12z Aviation discussion below Early morning satellite imagery together with GFS 500mb heights and winds showed a negatively tilted upper level trough approaching the high plains of the Dakotas, with a downstream ridge across Minnesota. An the surface the high pressure associated with the aforementioned ridge was located over Lake Superior, with a tightening pressure gradient toward the west and this will lead to breezy southeast winds, especially in southwest Minnesota. The dry southeast wind associated with this pressure gradient was advecting slightly drier air across the region, which will help to keep the precip associated with the aforementioned negatively tilted trough confined to mainly western Minnesota today, and then increasing eastward in coverage later tonight. The warm front associated with the low pressure system lifts into southern MN on Sunday.
/issued 411 AM CDT Tue Jun 6 2017/ A broad upper trough centered near the Louisiana Gulf coast will continue to slowly drift eastward and away from the area over the next 24 hours. A moist airmass remains in place, and the upper trough should provide enough vertical ascent for scattered convection to persist across the southeast half of the forecast area, generally southeast of a line from Tyler, TX to Prescott, AR. Rain chances will be highest in the farthest southeast zones in North Central Louisiana closer to the center of the trough and where deep layer moisture is more abundant. Rain chances should end from northwest to southeast by early Wednesday morning as drier air moves into the region behind the departing trough.
900 AM MST Tue Jun 6 2017 Little change in the weather pattern is expected through mid week as a strong high pressure system keeps temperatures above normal.
Water vapor loop indicated an upper level trough from northern SASK into western MT. Upper trough forecast to move across the area Wed and Wed night. 700 theta-e ridge will track across the area today through Wed with some wrap around. Northwest flow aloft will be across the area for Thu and Thu night as a flattened upper level ridge moves across the area.
Possible showers and thunderstorms could accompany the lowered cigs, but confidence is not high enough to add to the forecast. /Issued 249 AM CDT Tue Jun 6 2017/ As the upper ridge builds across the Four Corners, the upper flow over the Panhandles will become more northwesterly.
Mid level trough axis has shifted E/SE of the area this morning with northerly flow occurring in its wake.
A weak low pressure center just southwest of Louisiana will move slowly northeastward towards the northern Gulf coast today and will then move slowly eastward along the Florida panhandle coast later tonight and Wednesday. Meanwhile, a cold front pushing southward into the southeastern states today will approach the Georgia coastal waters later tonight, and will push slowly southward into the northeast Florida waters on Wednesday night.
1133 AM EDT Tue Jun 6 2017 High pressure continues to build into East KY from the Great Lakes and western Ontario. To the north, observations have indicated the cooler drier airmass moving in behind the front with a northerly wind. High pressure will edge into the area today from the northwest keeping a dry forecast in place. Clear skies in place tonight with high pressure overhead and light surface winds will lead to fog development tonight. Otherwise, high pressure, morning fog, and pleasant conditions will be the main story for the next 36 hours.
/issued 308 AM CDT Tue Jun 6 2017/ The upper level ridge to our west will remain nearly stationary from yesterday. We can expect convection again off the higher terrain of New Mexico on the east side of this upper ridge. A low level theta-e ridge will be entrenched in a narrow north-south corridor in eastern New Mexico into the far western South Plains. Any convection that develops will not have much trouble sustaining itself through this higher theta-e air. However, outside of this ridge, convection will likely struggle. The aforementioned low level theta-e axis will move farther to the east on Wednesday with little to no movement in the upper level ridge axis.
644 AM CDT Tue Jun 6 2017 Cold front moving through central North Dakota this morning has very little precipitation with it at this time. Currently, a cold front extended from a low over the central border of Saskatchewan/Manitoba southward to Minot/Bottineau to Bismarck/Steele to near Fort Yates. At upper levels, a low was centered over northern Saskatchewan with a trough extending south into central Montana, with some leading vort energy impulses ahead of the main trough along and behind the surface front. The upper level trough is forecast to move southeast today and tonight, reaching eastern North Dakota by daybreak Wednesday. The surface cold front is forecast to move eastward slowly today, reaching the James Valley around noon and the Red River Valley by evening. Cooler today with highs from the lower 70s northwest to lower 80s in the James Valley.
518 AM MDT Tue Jun 6 2017 Upper level analysis shows a positively tilted upper ridge extending from Ontario to the Four Corners region with an upper low sliding across southern Saskatchewan. At the surface, a frontal boundary extends through central South Dakota with high pressure beginning to build over Montana and Wyoming. Temperatures today will be cooler, but near average, behind the cold front. Showers and a few thunderstorms will continue over the eastern portions of the forecast area as the cold front continues to progress eastward and the upper level wave moves into the eastern Dakotas. This moisture combined with daytime heating, may allow an isolated shower or storm to form over the higher terrain of northeastern Wyoming and the Hills.
1125 AM CDT Tue Jun 6 2017 Sunny skies will bring temperatures into the lower 70s, cooler near the lake. Gusty northeast winds in the southeast and along the lakeshore will continue through the day until the pressure gradient relaxes tonight with high pressure sinking into the region. The pressure gradient will relax tonight as high pressure approaches the region. An upper low over the eastern Great Lakes will gradually slide south. We could see a few mid or high level clouds over southeast WI this afternoon and tonight as that upper trough drops through. The onshore component to those winds will keep temps cooler near Lake Michigan. Expecting highs to be a couple degrees warmer than yesterday. High High pressure will continue to dominate.