Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
345 AM EDT WED MAY 20 2015 03Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS FRONT HAS MOVED SOUTH OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BROADLY CENTERED ACROSS THE UPPER PLAINS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS THE RIDGING THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE HAS FLATTENED WITH MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW IN THE WAKE. MUCH DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS PREVAIL BEHIND THE FRONT THAT USHERED IN NORTHERLY FLOW. SO SEEING A MORE SUBTLE RIDGE/VALLEY SPLIT THIS MORNING. GIVEN THIS TREND DID COME UP SOME WITH REGARDS TO POPS BUT STAYED IN THE HIGH RANGE OF CHANCE. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT HAS MOVED SOUTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTHEAST.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE HILL COUNTRY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON.
337 AM PDT Wed May 20 2015 Variable clouds with mainly mountain showers and afternoon thunderstorms through the end of the week as the west coast remains under the influence of a low pressure system.
FLAT AND WEAK UPPER RIDGING RESIDES OVERHEAD. WITH A LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS STRETCHING WWD FROM THE WRN ATLANTIC INTO THE N CENTRAL GULF CONTINUING TO PROVIDE A MOIST SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW. WHILE AT THE SAME TIME BRINGING SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR INTO THE NORTHERN THIRD OR SO OF THE AREA.
131 AM EDT WED MAY 20 2015 A COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED EAST OF VERMONT. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND WILL DRIFT OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH A BROAD DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE NEW ENGLAND REGION AT THE SURFACE.
1245 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015 FOR 06Z TAFS /ISSUED 858 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015/ A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT LOCATED FROM APPROXIMATELY SLIGHTLY NORTH OF KMEM TO JUST SOUTH OF KOHX TO FAR NE TN WILL IMPACT N AL/S MIDDLE TN OVERNIGHT. A WIND SHIFT IS LIKELY BTWN 20/13-20/20Z AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHIFTS EAST PUSHING THE COLD FRONT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT.
550 AM EDT WED MAY 20 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE EARLY THIS MORNING ALLOWING A DRIER AIR MASS TO BUILD IN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
AND THURSDAY A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF THE NORTHWESTERN GREAT LAKES TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES THROUGH THE SOUTHWESTERN GREAT LAKES. ALTHOUGH THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO KEEP THE WEATHER DRY ACROSS NORTHEAST WISCONSIN. QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. A WEAK TROUGH AND SURFACE FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ON THURSDAY. WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR NORTH AND NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN.
MEANWHILE, A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD AS IT MOVES FROM THE FOUR CORNERS REGION INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES. THIS WILL REINFORCE THE COOLER AIR MASS ALREADY IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WITHIN A NORTHEASTERLY FLOW.
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS HAS MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION AS A BROAD UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO LIFT OUT ACROSS EASTERN UTAH AND NORTHWEST COLORADO. LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE UPPER TROUGH TRANSLATING NORTH AND EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES OVERNIGHT. A TRANSITORY UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH THE DAY. OVER AND NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WITH HIGHS IN 50S AND 60S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND HIGH VALLEYS. NEXT UPPER TROUGH MOVES SLOWLY ONSHORE THU. UPPER LOW SLOWLY SHIFTS NORTHEAST. TROUGH WHILE GFS SHOWS FAIRLY HEALTHY RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE ROCKIES. AS LIFT FROM THE UPPER LOW SPREADS ACROSS THE AREA. THEN COOL SLIGHTLY SUN AS TROUGH/COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH. GENERAL W-SW FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE STATE AS THE UPPER LOW PULLS TO THE NORTH OF COLORADO.
A COLD FRONT PER MSAS WAS APPROACHING NORTH CENTRAL TX.
IR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND 500 MB HEIGHTS CURRENTLY SHOW A WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN MX WHILE RIDGE BUILDS OVER SOUTH TX. A WEAK FRONTAL WAVE MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS UNTIL IT DECAYS OVER NORTH CENTRAL TX DUE TO BROAD ANTICYCLONE SHIFTING FROM THE HIGH C PLAINS TOWARDS THE EAST. DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS CONTINUE AS RIDGE IS DOMINATING OVER SOUTH TEXAS.
AREA STREAMS AND RIVERS ARE HAVING A BRIEF PERIOD TO RECOVER THROUGH EARLY TODAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT ARRIVES TO TRIGGER NEW CONVECTION AND POSSIBLY RIVER RISES. MOST OF THE HIGHER RES MODELS GENERATE WHAT LOOKS TO BE STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE THE COLD FRONT INTERACTS WITH HIGH EVENING CAPE VALUES AND LIGHT TO MODERATE SHEAR. WITH SPC MESO- ANALYSIS SHOWING HIGH PWAT VALUES OVER THE COMPLEX RIDING ALONG THE COLD FRONT OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING. THE PAST COUPLE RUNS OF THE NAM MODEL SEEM TO REFLECT A GOOD MIDDLE GROUND FROM THE HIGH RES CAMPS INCLUDING RECENT HRRR RUNS. SO WILL SHOW CHANCE CATEGORY POPS WHICH SIDE WITH THE LOWER RES MODELS OVER THE DRIER SOLUTIONS OF MOST HIGHER RES RUNS.
ANOTHER DAY OF SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WITH UPPER LOW ELONGATED EAST-WEST ACROSS SOUTHERN IDAHO AND WYOMING. CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE THURSDAY WHEN THE UPPER LOW MOVES OUT INTO THE PLAINS AND WARMER AND SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MOVES INTO OUR AREA FROM THE SOUTH. A LONG WAVE TROUGH PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE AREA AS A SERIES OF UPPER LOWS MOVE SOUTH ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST.
SHORT TERM: (Through Tonight) A broad area of rain progresses across the forecast area today in association with a wave of low pressure riding along a quasistationary frontal boundary. The resulting trough forms over Iowa tonight and moves to the east or slightly south of east.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL PASS TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA TODAY. JUST DOWNSTREAM OF UPPER RIDGE OVER ALBERTA AND SASKATCHEWAN. TEMPS REBOUND TO UPPER 60S/NEAR 70 TODAY AHEAD OF A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH/NORTHEAST. WHERE HIGHS WILL BE A SMIDGE COOLER ON THURSDAY.
A 06Z SUBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTED A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE SOUTHEAST, WITH A TROUGH RUNNING ALONG THE SOUTHEAST U. GENERALLY, ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL TODAY ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A FLATTENING UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO THE PAST COUPLE OF AFTERNOON, AND REACH THE LOWER 90S JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE.
318 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015 TIGHTER ZONAL GRADIENT DEVELOPS TODAY IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING AND DAMPENING LOW/MIDDLE LEVEL RIDGE. STILL BELIEVE THE ANTECEDENT CLOUD COVER AND COOLER BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES IN NORTHERLY/NORTHEASTERLY WOULD PROVIDE SUFFICIENT LIFT FOR SHOWER GENERATION. THE EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER AND NORTH/NORTHEASTERLY COOL/DRY FLOW FROM THE DEPARTING RIDGE WILL DETERMINE THE EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE PRECIPITATION TODAY AND THIS EVENING ACROSS THE WFO PAH FORECAST AREA.
322 AM EDT WED MAY 20 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE EARLY THIS MORNING ALLOWING A DRIER AIR MASS TO BUILD IN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
SO, EXPECT MOST LOCATIONS TO ONLY CLIMB INTO THE LOW-MID 50S. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE LOWER 40S CENTRAL IL AND MID 40S IN SOUTHEAST IL. A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TO DROP SE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES THU WHILE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO MO.
SO NOT SEEING MUCH OF THE RIDGE/VALLEY SPLIT. 03Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS FRONT HAS MOVED SOUTH OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BROADLY CENTERED ACROSS THE UPPER PLAINS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS THE RIDGING THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE HAS FLATTENED WITH MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW IN THE WAKE. MUCH DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS PREVAIL BEHIND THE FRONT THAT USHERED IN NORTHERLY FLOW. SO SEEING A MORE SUBTLE RIDGE/VALLEY SPLIT THIS MORNING. GIVEN THIS TREND DID COME UP SOME WITH REGARDS TO POPS BUT STAYED IN THE HIGH RANGE OF CHANCE.
153 AM EDT WED MAY 20 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE EAST TODAY. FOLLOWED BY AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL AFFECT THE REGION THURSDAY.
1150 PM MDT TUE MAY 19 2015 UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS CURRENTLY ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER AND SWINGING NORTHWARD.
640 AM EDT WED MAY 20 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG A LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY TODAY.
BUT THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH SUN ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE MID-STATE TO WARRANT TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE LOW 80S.
THE DRIER AIR THAT WAS BEHIND THE FRONT NEVER FULLY MADE IT INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND MOST SITES HAVE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S. STORMS SHOULD EVOLVE INTO A LINE AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE AREA TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
1207 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015 FORECAST ON TRACK WITH SHOWERS STILL WELL OFF TO THE WEST AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS UNDER THE WEAKENING RIDGE. A WEAK WAVE WILL LIFT OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST TOMORROW WHILE A CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE AREA PUSHES IN FROM THE NORTH. THE HIGH PRESSURE INITIALLY WILL NOT HAVE AN EFFECT ON THE PCPN, BUT BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THE PCPN SHOULD PUSH THROUGH THE AREA QUICKLY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. BEYOND TOMORROW EVENING, DRY AND COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS THIS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES FURTHER SOUTH INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE US. OVER THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND, THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL SHIFT EAST AND ALLOW WARM MOIST AIR TO BUILD INTO THE MIDWEST AND BUILD AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS.
WV IMAGERY SHOWS MOISTURE CONTINUING TO STREAM INTO THE AREA FROM THE EAST AS IT IS WRAPPED AROUND AN UPPER LOW IN WYOMING. A SERIES OF UPPER LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE TROUGH ESTABLISHED OVER THE WEST. THIS PATTERN LEAVES CWA IN MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING AS THE LOW SLIDES EASTWARD INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
AND NORTH LOUISIANA DURING THE DAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHEAST.
NUDGED MINIMUM TEMPERATURES UP A DEGREE AS EXPECTING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES THAN THIS MORNING BUT MAYBE A TAD WARMER THAN EXPECTED. BUT CONFIDENCE OF STORMS DEVELOPING IS ON THE LOW SIDE. MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE STATE ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
327 AM EDT WED MAY 20 2015 COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD FIRM ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES THROUGH TONIGHT. POLAR RIDGE ANCHORED FM THE CNTRL PLAINS EWD INTO THE WRN OH VALLEY XPCD TO DOMINATE THIS PD WHILE PLAINS SW TROUGH SHEARS EWD AND WKNS TDA. GIVEN THE BREATH AND EXTENT OF DRYNESS NOTED WITHIN LL RIDGE AXIS AND DECAYING UPR SPRT THIS AFTN SEE LTL REASON NOT TO REDUCE POPS FURTHER. SLOWLY EXITING EASTERN CANADA HEIGHT ANOMALY AND DIGGING SOUTHWEST CONUS TROUGH WILL LEAD TO GRADUAL MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING IN OUR REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
BUT SOUTHEASTWARD DEVELOPMENT OF THE MCS IS BEING HINDERED BY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT CONTINUES TO DEFLECT THE BULK OF ENERGY ASSOC WITH THE WESTERLIES NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. STRONGER LOW-MID LEVEL FLOW (20-30KT) ALONG AND NORTH OF THE HIGHWAY 82 CORRIDOR COULD SUPPORT ORGANIZED STRONG STORMS LATER TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA FOLLOWED BY LESS HUMID CONDITIONS AND DECREASING SHOWER/TSTM CHANCES - WITH POPS EVENTUALLY BECOME CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE HWY 84 CORRIDOR BY THURSDAY EVENING.
148 AM EDT WED MAY 20 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN SHOWS VARIATIONS ON A THEME OF BLOCKING OVER THIS PART OF THE HEMISPHERE FOR THE NEXT TEN DAYS. THE BLOCK WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AND BECOME AN OMEGA BLOCK WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH THE EASTERN ANCHOR LOW DEVELOPING OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST AND THE HIGH SETTING UP ALONG THE ALASKA/CANADA BOUNDARY.
BUT SOUTHEASTWARD DEVELOPMENT OF THE MCS IS BEING HINDERED BY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT CONTINUES TO DEFLECT THE BULK OF ENERGY ASSOC WITH THE WESTERLIES NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. STRONGER LOW-MID LEVEL FLOW (20-30KT) ALONG AND NORTH OF THE HIGHWAY 82 CORRIDOR COULD SUPPORT ORGANIZED STRONG STORMS. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA BRINGING LESS HUMID CONDITIONS AND DECREASING SHOWER/TSTM CHANCES - WITH POPS EVENTUALLY BECOME CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE HWY 84 CORRIDOR BY THURSDAY EVENING.
340 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015 SOUTHERN MN/WESTERN WI IS CAUGHT BETWEEN AN ADVANCING UPPER LOW ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND ANOTHER SHRTWV RIDING SE ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA. MOISTURE IS LIMITED BLW 10K ACROSS SOUTHERN MN WHERE THIS UPPER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING. THEN INCRS FURTHER ON FRI TO THE LOW-MID 70S.
110 AM EDT WED MAY 20 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH NOTICEABLY COOLER TEMPERATURES.
Looks like the low clouds will hold on for much of the area with the potential for some stratus build down fog overnight in some areas, especially in higher Ozarks terrain. A longwave trough over the western CONUS will slowly shift east into the Rockies over the upcoming weekend with smaller scale waves/impulses moving through and then east of the larger scale trough.
THIS WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SHOULD HOLD TODAY AS THE NEXT TROF/UPPER LOW BEGINS TO MOVE TOWARD THE CALI BAJA AREA. HOWEVER THIS UNSETTLED WX PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THE REST OF THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER TROF TO THE WEST DEEP- ENS FURTHER. 41 WINDS NEAR THE COAST PICKING UP BUT SHOULD COME DOWN THIS AFTERNOON AS S/W RIDGING ALOFT BUILD IN THE WAKE OF THE S/W TROUGH PASSING THROUGH N TX THIS MORNING. LIGHTER ONSHORE WIND REGIME REMAINS THROUGH THURSDAY AS COLD FRONT SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER SAGS SOUTH TODAY AND THURSDAY.
1247 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015 VERY QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS IN THE SHORT TERM WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. SLIGHTLY WARMER NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AREA ON WEDNESDAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES IN THE MORNING. THE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL COMBINE WITH A WARMING AIR MASS TO PRODUCE HIGHS INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S ON WED.
409 AM EDT WED MAY 20 2015 CURRENTLY - A SPLIT RIDGE PATTERN HAS PERSISTED ACROSS FLORIDA. AS WELL AS ON THE OUTER STRAITS OFF OF THE LOWER AND MIDDLE KEYS. WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 70S.
Much of the region will begin to see a warmer and drier trend today, with southern Idaho county in Idaho seeing more afternoon showers and thunderstorms.
AS FOR TEMPS WILL LEAN VERY CLOSE TO THE WARMER MAV GUIDANCE THROUGH TONIGHT DUE TO MOSTLY FROM PERSISTENCE. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S FOR MOST INLAND AREAS AND THE LOWER 70S CLOSER TO THE COAST. WEAK COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY.
529 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015 SOUTHERN MN/WESTERN WI IS CAUGHT BETWEEN AN ADVANCING UPPER LOW ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND ANOTHER SHRTWV RIDING SE ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA. MOISTURE IS LIMITED BLW 10K ACROSS SOUTHERN MN WHERE THIS UPPER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING. THEN INCRS FURTHER ON FRI TO THE LOW-MID 70S.
THE PASSAGE OF THE LOW/FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL FINALLY BRING AN END TO THE UNSEASONABLY WARM LATE DECEMBER WEATHER.
143 PM MST SUN DEC 27 2015 UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OVER NORTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA TODAY IS BEING PUSHED OFF TO THE EAST AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH BEGINS MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. AS TROUGH APPROACHES. AS WITH THE LAST PACIFIC TROUGH. THE ENERGY WITH THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SPLIT AS IT MOVES INLAND WITH MOST ENERGY MOVING TO THE SOUTH OF MONTANA.
254 PM CST SUN DEC 27 2015 STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR EL PASO TX THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE NOW IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW THROUGH MISSOURI INTO WISCONSIN BY MONDAY NIGHT. MEDIUM RANGE OUTPUT FROM THE MORNING MODEL RUNS SHOW THAT THEY HAVE COME TOGETHER WITH THE TRACK OF THE CENTER OF THE MID-LEVEL CYCLONE.
A weak cold front will push southeastward across the area on Monday resulting in periods of light snow.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE THIS EVENING MAINLY FOR THE HILL COUNTRY AND EASTERN COUNTIES AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PUSHES TO THE EAST AND INTO CENTRAL TEXAS TONIGHT. SOME WRAPPING AROUND MOISTURE AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SYSTEM PUSHES TO THE EAST COULD RESULT IN LIGHT SNOW AND SLEET FOR FEW HOURS ACROSS PARTS OF THE HILL COUNTRY AND EDWARDS PLATEAU.
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE TS INTO THE KMSL AREA BETWEEN AFT 14Z AND INTO THE KHSV AREA AFT 16Z.
THIS IS IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY. LATEST 12Z MODELS SHOW LITTLE CHANGE WITH THE LOW AS IT TRACKS INLAND TONIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING EAST TOWARD THE PAC COAST THIS MORNING. THE TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE INLAND TONIGHT AND OVER OUR AREA TOMORROW. WITH LOW CLOUDS EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY ALONG THE SNAKE RIVER ALL THE WAY INTO THE LOWER TREASURE VALLEY. WITH MID-LEVEL CLOUDS SPREADING EAST INTO THE REGION FROM THE APPROACHING TROUGH.
1135 AM EST SUN DEC 27 2015 CIRCULATION AROUND AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST WILL HOLD A WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS OVER THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST MONDAY WILL MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND STALL THROUGH MID-WEEK. COOL AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. WITH THE BLANKET OF CLOUDS OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH A BACKDOOR FRONT OR DEVELOPING WARM FRONT SUPPORTS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS MONDAY. THE MODELS INDICATE DEEPENING MOISTURE MONDAY NIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER WILL PERSIST MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 70S TO AROUND 80 AND LOWS MONDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO THE MID 60S SOUTH.
A COLD FRONT IS APPROACHING THE COAST THIS MORNING. FREEZING LEVELS WILL HOVER BETWEEN 2000 AND 3000 FEET ABOVE SEA LEVEL THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD.
ANOTHER TROUGH MAY BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW ON MONDAY. A RETURN TO HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A MODEST WARM UP BY THE END OF THE WEEK. SANTA ANA WINDS HAVE WEAKENED AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST AND SHIFTED GRADIENT TRENDS TO ONSHORE. WHILE MOST AREAS WILL BE AT LEAST A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL STILL DROP INTO THE 30S IN MANY VALLEY AREAS AND EVEN MID 20S IN SOME OF THE COLDER LOCATIONS. THE MOISTURE-STRAVED COLD FRONT WILL WHIP PAST THE AREA MONDAY DROPPING VERY LITTLE PRECIP, MOST OF IT NORTH OF PT CONCEPTION WHERE AMOUNTS SHOULD TOP OUT AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
CENTER OF A VIGOROUS MID-LEVEL CYCLONE WAS STILL CRAWLING EAST OVER THE BIG BEND REGION AND AS THIS TRACKS NORTHEAST TONIGHT ITS DEFORMATION ZONE WILL PIVOT OVER THE SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS BEFORE MAKING A QUICK EXODUS BY DAYBREAK MONDAY. KEPT HIGH TEMPS BELOW FREEZING IN MOST AREAS ON MONDAY DESPITE FULL SUN AND DOWNSLOPE WINDS.
ANOTHER TROUGH WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW ON MONDAY. A RETURN TO HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A MODEST WARM UP BY THE END OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER COOL DAY TODAY WITH HIGHS A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL, BUT GENERALLY A BIT WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. A VERY WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DRAG THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY. ***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION*** YET ANOTHER NORTH WIND EVENT WILL FOLLOW THE ON THE HEALS OF THE TROF.
SATELLITE SHOWING COLD AND STRONG UPPER LOW NOW MOVING INTO WESTERN TEXAS. TENDED TO GO WARMER SOUTHEAST AND COOLER IN THE NORTH AND WEST. ENDED UP GOING CLOSER TO THE WARMER GUIDANCE WHICH MEANT HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN TODAYS.
OUR AREA WILL BE DOMINATED BY HIGH PRESSURE TODAY NNE OF THE SOUTHERN LOW. THE NEXT PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL MOVE ONSHORE OVER THE NORTHWEST COAST EARLY THIS EVENING THEN INTO THE GREAT BASIN ON MONDAY. IT DOES APPEAR THAT TEMPERATURES OVER HIGHER ELEVATION RIDGES AND SLOPES SHOULD BE A WARM A LITTLE AS 700MB TEMPERATURES MODIFY. I DO NOT SEE HOW VALLEYS COULD BE MUCH WARMER. SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INVADE ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT TROUGH MOVES INTO THE GREAT BASIN. TEMPERATURES WILL MODIFY AS COOLER AIR ALOFT BEGINS TO SPREAD IN AHEAD OF THE TROUGH.
SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS WELL-FORMED LAKE- EFFECT CLOUDS EXTENDING SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKE AS OF 1230 UTC WITH SURFACE OBSERVATIONS REVEALING FLURRIES/ICE CRYSTALS IN THAT BAND AND EVEN FOG IN MANDAN WHERE THE LOW CLOUDS MEET HIGHER TERRAIN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EAST TODAY INTO TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR SOME RETURN FLOW BACK INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS TRYING ITS HARDEST TO ENTER NORTHWEST MIDDLE TENNESSEE THIS AFTERNOON AS NORTHERLY WINDS AND COOLER AIR HAVE TAKEN UP TEMPORARY RESIDENCE IN AND AROUND THE CLARKSVILLE AREA.
For tonight, potent upper level low will spin its way quickly across the southeast areas and then into southeast Oklahoma by Monday morning. Slick spots on roadways, especially bridges and overpasses, will certainly be likely, especially as temperatures fall to freezing after sunset. Conditions improve on Monday as the upper low shifts rapidly away from the area.
THE NEXT COLD FRONT ARRIVES MONDAY NIGHT. COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH THE AREA TODAY MARKING A TURN BACK TOWARDS WINTER AS THE RECORD WARM AIR RETREATS.
117 PM PST SUN DEC 27 2015 A COLD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING SNOW SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY.
THE UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN TEXAS TODAY AND THEN MOVE NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL TEXAS TONIGHT. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO TAKE ITS NORTHEAST TRACK INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA/SOUTHWEST MISSOURI MONDAY. BY MONDAY EVENING THE LOW SHOULD BE CENTERED OVER SOUTHCENTRAL IOWA.
High pressure exiting to the east allowing for another cool night across the area with temperatures near the freezing mark in the valley and teens to single digits across higher elevations.
Got a report of freezing rain at Protection, so added a few hours of freezing rain, but new radar trends also show that area from Comanche to Barber county beginning to diminish. Barber county still may pick up around an inch of snow, or even some freezing rain and sleet. Highs today will be in the lower to mid 20s, with teens to lower 20s for lows tonight.
A COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
COLD FRONT CROSSING PITTSBURGH AT 16Z AND WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEAST. RAIN WILL END NORTH TO SOUTH LATE DAY WITH RAIN CONTINUING TO LINGER IN THE SOUTHEAST RIDGES AND SOUTH OF I-70 INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OVERNIGHT. THIS MEANS BASICALLY EVERYWHERE ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE WELL-ABOVE FREEZING.
835 AM PST SUN DEC 27 2015 WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BRING CLEAR SKIES AND SLIGHTLY WARMER WEATHER BY THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW WILL TURN BACK ONSHORE TONIGHT AND MONDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST.
STILL EXPECT TO SEE LOWS TONIGHT SOME 5 TO 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN THIS MORNING. SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN TONIGHT AS THE AIRMASS CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MODERATE.
1055 AM CST SUN DEC 27 2015 WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN IMPRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL LOW PUSHING EAST ACROSS WEST TEXAS THIS MORNING. WITH THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVING ACROSS EAST TEXAS. AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SLOWLY LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST. MORE WINTERLIKE TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT. WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS FALLING TO NEAR FREEZING. /ISSUED AT 727 AM CST/ A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE E THROUGH THE ARKLATEX. SHWRS/TSTMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE FROM W TO E THIS CYCLE W/ TSRA CONDITIONS IFR/MVFR EXPECTED ACROSS OUR TX TERMINALS TODAY AS AN INVERTED TROPICAL TROUGH CLOSES INTO A STACKING LOW OVHD. RAIN WILL END QUICKLY DURING EARLY MONDAY AND WINDS WILL END UP W/SW 10-20KTS AS THE LOW MOVES BY. COLD FRONT IS AT KCRS.
THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT UPPER LOW IS DRIFTING ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS AS RIDGING SITS ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS. NEXT UPPER TROUGH IS APPROACHING THE PAC NW WITH UPPER FLOW BECOMING SWRLY ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS. CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SINKS SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS CNTRL SD MON AS THE SRN PLAINS UPPER LOW SWINGS NNE INTO THE MIDWEST.
THOUGH THERE HAVE BEEN INTERMITTENT REPORTS OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF WICHITA METRO AREA SOUTHWARD ALONG I-35 CORRIDOR. POTENT UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS SW TEXAS. ALL THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS CONVERGING ON A SIMILAR SOLUTION OF MOVING UPPER LOW ACROSS NORTHERN TEXAS INTO THE ARKLATEX BY MONDAY MORNING. DELINEATION BETWEEN LIQUID-FREEZING AND FROZEN WILL BE COMPACT. DUE TO UPPER LOW PASSAGE.