Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
/issued 242 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2020/ SHORT TERM (Tonight through Thursday Night): The persistent H5 ridge centered over Northwest Mexico and the Southwest United States will slowly extend its influence east to over the Gulf through the short term. High pressure will remain stolid over the Gulf as well.
Warm and humid conditions this afternoon with temperatures in the low to mid 90s common with dew points in the low 70s. The wave is now approaching the Highway 30/Interstate 80 corridor and into an area where weaker inhibition will be as stronger daytime heating continues.
1028 PM EDT Wed Jul 8 2020 Currently - A low pressure system near the Carolina Coast, along with day time heating over Florida has split the ridge across Florida. Overnight lows will be in the lower 80s away from briefly rain cooled areas.
515 PM MDT Wed Jul 8 2020 Currently, an upper level low is centered over the Northern Rockies in Canada, with a trough extending southward through the Inter- Mountain west, with an upper ridge over the Central Plains. At the surface, a stationary boundary extends across the Eastern Dakotas into the Nebraska Panhandle, with a dryline/lee trof extending through the Black Hills. Winds will decrease later this evening with lows falling into the lower 50s to lower 60s.
There will be a better chance for thunderstorms on Thursday into Thursday night as a cold front moves into the area. Behind the cold front, temperatures will cool slightly for the weekend. Overnight lows should drop into the lower 70s, as forecast, with winds light and variable.
00Z upper air analysis continues to indicate an upper level ridge axis centered over the Southern Plains and Southwest United States. The Mid-South continues to be on the eastern periphery of the ridge axis.
A flat ridge of high pressure continues across the desert southwest and Mexico, producing westerly flow aloft across the Four Corners region. Meanwhile, an upper low pressure system was crossing the northern Rockies, pushing a weak cold front south across MT and WY, and down into eastern CO. Continued hot and dry conditions, though the weak cold front this evening through tomorrow morning should actually keep max temps just below the 100 degree mark for the plains. Minimum temps overnight tonight are forecast to drop into the 40s to around 50F for the high valleys, and mid 50s to mid 60s for the plains. Highs tomorrow will climb into the mid 80s to mid 90s for the high valleys, and 90s to near 100F for the plains.
There have been hints of a weak, shallow surge of cooler air behind these storms. If this is a bit more solid, it could result in slightly cooler temperatures on Thursday and eventually a better chance of strong storms in northeast Colorado by Thursday evening. The strong upper level ridge covering the southern half of the country shows only signs of strengthening over the next few days. Unseasonably warm temperatures at mid and upper levels are in place with no sign of any upper troughs to disturb the pattern. The warm temperatures and subsident effects of the upper ridge will suppress most, if not all, afternoon convective development.
A W to NW flow prevails aloft with the ridge center near the AZ/NM/Mexico border junction, though the flow isn't overly strong at 15 to 20 kts.
320 PM MDT Wed Jul 8 2020 High pressure will be present across the Northern Rockies through Thursday afternoon. Daytime temperatures on Thursday will be 5-10 degrees warmer than today, with mostly clear skies.
97 Upper low pressure system is currently sitting over Saskatchewan. An upper ridge will then build into the area tonight through tomorrow.
Notable short wave swinging around upper low over southern Saskatchewan has lead to some cloud development over western North Dakota. Combined with surface dew points in the low 50s (possibly becoming upper 40s this evening), MUCAPE will be low (>1000 J/kg). A cold front associated with the upper level circulation will push through the forecast area overnight. In the post-frontal air mass tomorrow, relatively cooler highs in the 70s to low 80s are forecast with breezy west/northwest winds.
Low pressure along the South Carolina coast will slowly move to the northeast. With moderate instability and a weak trough across the area, scattered mainly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms are expected into the weekend. Low pressure along the North Carolina coast will move slowly to the north. Upper trough remains over the area and precipitable water remains about 125% of normal (above 2 inches). Temps near normal around 90 and lows in the low 70s.
STP Satellite imagery shows upper low over southwest Saskatchewan and a dry westerly flow over our region. Otherwise, we will see flat ridging build in from the west, and dry conditions through Thursday night. Look for temps a little warmer tomorrow than today with highs mostly in the 80s.
Additional scattered afternoon convection can be expected for Thursday ahead of an upper level trough. These scattered showers and storms will persist into the overnight hours as the trough slowly moves through the region. - Slightly Cooler For the Weekend - Broad troughing will move back into place this weekend allowing for northwest flow and some relief from the 90 degree temperatures, with temperatures in the 80s expected. High pressure will keep conditions quiet through the late morning hours. High pressure center will begin to shift east in the afternoon as a trough approaches the Western Great Lakes. Another round of showers/tstorms looks likely after 06Z Friday morning as the trough pushes through.
Highs this afternoon will be a couple degrees warmer than yesterday, reaching into the 100-109 range across lower elevations, and upper 90s across the higher terrain.
Another hot and humid day is then in store for us, with temperatures once again expected to rise into the low to mid 90s, with heat indices approaching or just exceeding 100 degrees. Overnight lows will remain in the lower 70s. Weak cold front on Friday will bring fairly widespread showers and storms the the area.
This high PW air is being reinforced by a low-level jet that is really focused over central to east central KS, roughly along and west of highway 75. The strongest MUCAPE is also in axis the generally aligns with the high PW air and the low-level jet. The heat should return to the area Friday with highs climbing back into the lower 90s.
Also after 20Z, another round of thunderstorms are expected to develop in the higher terrain of southeast Wyoming, mainly off the Laramie Range and also parts of northeast Colorado.
The shower and thunderstorm chances will increase from Thursday night through Friday though as an upper low tracks southeastward across the Great Lakes Region. Temperatures will dip a bit over the weekend in the wake of the associated cold front, but not by much.
A flat ridge of high pressure continues across the desert southwest and Mexico, producing westerly flow aloft across the Four Corners region. Meanwhile, an upper low pressure system was crossing the northern Rockies, pushing a weak cold front south across MT and WY, and down into eastern CO. Continued hot and dry conditions, though the weak cold front this evening through tomorrow morning should actually keep max temps just below the 100 degree mark for the plains. Minimum temps overnight tonight are forecast to drop into the 40s to around 50F for the high valleys, and mid 50s to mid 60s for the plains. Highs tomorrow will climb into the mid 80s to mid 90s for the high valleys, and 90s to near 100F for the plains. Winds aloft weaken somewhat as the high to the SSW builds northward.
There will be a better chance for thunderstorms on Thursday into Thursday night as a cold front moves into the area. Behind the cold front, temperatures will cool slightly for the weekend. Overnight lows should drop into the lower 70s, as forecast, with winds light and variable. By Tues though, the upper ridge is expected to build back into the midwest and the warm air will return to the region with highs on Tues and Wed back into the lower 90s.
Upper ridge and drying in the mid levels will result in fair wx conditions across the CWA, but MaxT will rise into the mid to upper 80s with heat indices possibly reaching the upper 100s during the afternoon hours.
Extensive outflow and convectively overturned airmass will spread westward and provide slightly cooler temps today while low level moisture gradually modifies along and east of the outflow boundary by late afternoon.
The heat index values west of the Cumberland Plateau may touch 100 degrees this afternoon with dew point values in the low 70s.
A cold front will increase rain chance for the weekend, but will cool temperature back to seasonable levels. Ridging will still dominate the weather scene today although with weakening indicated over Ohio zones via longwave trough approach. The high temperature prog of 10 to 13 degrees above the average was little-altered; however, those readings in conjunction with lower 70s dewpoints will drive heat index values to near the 100 degree mark for lowland areas generally along and south of the PA turnpike. Further encroachment of the aforementioned trough will support higher precip.
A weak cold front will increase rain chance for the weekend. Ridging will still dominate the weather scene today although with weakening indicated over Ohio zones via longwave trough approach. The high temperature prog of 10 to 13 degrees above the average was little-altered; however, those readings in conjunction with lower 70s dewpoints will drive heat index values to near the 100 degree mark for lowland areas generally along and south of the PA turnpike. Further encroachment of the aforementioned trough will support higher precip.
Between that and the circulation around the low throwing a few showers back toward the coast, expect to see scattered showers and, with daytime heating, thunderstorms today. After sunset, the low should be far enough removed from us that the remainder of the period will be more typical of summer with heating of the day being the main driver of shower and thunderstorm development with the lingering trough as the main focusing mechanism. Highs today will reach the mid 80s to about 90 with lows tonight in the low to mid 70s.
237 AM MDT Thu Jul 9 2020 MORNING DISCUSSION: Synoptic Setup: Forecast begins with hot high pressure over the Intermountain West falling into the US plains and cool Pacific air over the southwestern quarter of Canada. Today through tonight: A weak ridge will move north into eastern Montana today and exit overnight. With the exit of the ridge isolated showers may develop early Friday morning.
During the remainder of the short term period, the upper level ridge across the western US will start to amplify a bit, shifting the upper level flow to a northwesterly direction.
Mid and upper level ridging building back over the region will hold strong with warming 850MB temps.
Fire weather concerns return Friday as a low pressure system tracks across Montana and flattens the upper ridge.
400 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2020 An approaching cold front will bring an increasing chance for thunderstorms today, especially this evening.
00Z upper air analysis continues to indicate an upper level ridge axis centered over the Southern Plains and Southwest United States. The Mid-South continues to be on the eastern periphery of the ridge axis. The Mid-South will remain under a weak and dirty ridge through Friday. This will result in mainly diurnally-driven showers and thunderstorms and temperatures in the lower 90s with lows in the 70s.
1043 PM MDT Wed Jul 8 2020 Currently, an upper level low is centered over the Northern Rockies in Canada, with a trough extending southward through the Inter- Mountain west, with an upper ridge over the Central Plains. At the surface, a stationary boundary extends across the Eastern Dakotas into the Nebraska Panhandle, with a dryline/lee trof extending through the Black Hills. Winds will decrease later this evening with lows falling into the lower 50s to lower 60s. An upper ridge will build over the area on Thursday and Friday leading to warming temperatures.
350 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2020 The mid-upper level weather pattern will remain very weak today, as we remain between a flat ridge to the north over the Great Lakes/southern Canada, and a broad trof of low pressure located over the southeastern states. A short wave trof is expected to swing southeast within this flow pattern, along with a weak surface trof. Confidence remains on the low side. For now, will side with some of the SPC CAMs and keep highest chc POPs up along I-64 corridor later tonight into early Friday associated with energy from the mid level trof.
Near record warmth over the next couple of days as temperatures reach into the lower to mid 90s with triple digit heat index values across South Florida. The light surface wind flow provided by high pressure holding influence over the region will enable diurnal sea breeze formation. Aloft, the pattern is shifting with the mid-level area of high pressure sliding south over Cuba and the northern Caribbean while the trough extending along the eastern seaboard continues to slowly amplify southward. The chances of small hail, while non-zero, do appear less than in previous days as temperatures are a bit warmer aloft and the lapse rates in the hail growth zone are not as prime to support much hail growth.
448 AM EDT Thu Jul 9 2020 WV imagery and RAP analysis indicated a mid/upper level low into the southwest corner of Manitoba resulting wsw flow through the Upper Mississippi Valley into the northern Great Lakes. Although confidence is limited, there is a strong enough signfal that as the SD shrtwv lifts to the ene and the cold front nears thunderstorms will again increase in coverage with some developing/extending into west or central Upper Michigan even as the higher chances remain to the south. Upper low moving into far northwestern Ontario will push a weak cold front through the Upper Great Lakes and U. Well defined MCV will eject out of the Plains into the lower Lakes later Thursday into Friday.
Temperatures are forecast to be slightly lower on Friday, in the upper 80s to around 90 in most locations compared to the lower 90s on Thursday.
A strong upper level ridge over New Mexico will strengthen and build in across much of west Texas today. By this evening, a weak area of low pressure will move into the Panhandle which will strengthen the pressure gradient across much of West Texas.
We will continue to be on the east side of the high across Deep South Texas with continued dry, northerly flow through the period. Dew points are expected to drop into the mid 60s out west, where the highest temperatures will be.
209 AM MDT Thu Jul 9 2020 Warmer conditions are expected today with highs generally reaching the lower 80s at many locations.
The area will also remain positioned under the northeast periphery of a summertime high, with upper level short wave troughs meandering through the northwest flow.
31 A strong upper level high pressure system over the SW United States will continue to steer low pressure systems from out of the great lakes through the SE. This nearly continuous upper level trough will keep pops at chance through the rest of the forecast period. Temperatures will climb in to the lower 90s by Friday across northern Georgia and upper 90s across south and central Georgia.
TONIGHT: Still anticipating the development of a QLCS this evening initiated as mid-level trough approaches the Missouri River from the west. Friday will push temperatures a couple of degrees higher as a mid-level ridge pushes through.
143 AM EDT Thu Jul 9 2020 Thunderstorms chances will persist under hot and humid conditions until the passage of a weak cold front on Friday. Went close to the blend for low temperatures overnight in the upper 60s to the lower 70s.
Upper low will move east into the Interlake region in Manitoba north of Winnipeg this afternoon.
CD Chattanooga Airport, TN 91 73 91 72 90 / 30 20 70 60 30 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 91 72 90 72 88 / 20 20 60 50 30 Oak Ridge, TN 92 72 90 70 88 / 20 20 70 60 30 Tri Cities Airport, TN 91 68 87 69 84 / 20 30 60 50 40.
736 AM EDT Thu Jul 9 2020 WV imagery and RAP analysis indicated a mid/upper level low into the southwest corner of Manitoba resulting wsw flow through the Upper Mississippi Valley into the northern Great Lakes. Although confidence is limited, there is a strong enough signfal that as the SD shrtwv lifts to the ene and the cold front nears thunderstorms will again increase in coverage with some developing/extending into west or central Upper Michigan even as the higher chances remain to the south. Although there may be trend toward cooler weather this weekend, above average temperatures are expected to continue. Temps will still climb into the low to mid 80s with 70s downwind of northwest flow off of Lake Superior.
The mid-upper level weather pattern will remain very weak today, as we remain between a flat ridge to the north over the Great Lakes/southern Canada, and a broad trof of low pressure located over the southeastern states. A short wave trof is expected to swing southeast within this flow pattern, along with a weak surface trof. Confidence remains on the low side. For now, will side with some of the SPC CAMs and keep highest chc POPs up along I-64 corridor later tonight into early Friday associated with energy from the mid level trof.
Another hot and humid day is then in store for us, with temperatures once again expected to rise into the low to mid 90s, with heat indices approaching or just exceeding 100 degrees. Overnight lows will remain in the lower 70s, with patchy fog once again possible. Weak cold front on Friday will bring fairly widespread showers and storms the the area.
The main issue for today will be the lower humidity with dew points mainly in the 50s along with cooler highs in the lower to mid 80s. On Friday, we will see a quick return to warmer temperatures, higher dew points, increasing instability, along with strengthening deep layer shear. These factors combined with upper level forcing from an approaching short wave trough is expected to bring thunderstorm development during the afternoon into central and north central sd.
315 AM MDT Thu Jul 9 2020 An upper ridge will build over the area from the west this afternoon. At the surface, high pressure will be located over the eastern parts of the forecast area with low pressure developing th the east of the Rockies. The high dewpoints and temperatures in the 90s will lead to moderate to strong instability developing during the afternoon.
304 AM MDT Thu Jul 9 2020 Extremely dry and hot weather will continue over eastern Utah and western Colorado through the short term forecast period as a potent ridge of high pressure remains in control. However, wind speeds of 25 mph or greater will only be briefly reached and will favor the higher terrain. Highs on Friday will tick upward by 2-3 degrees as h5 heights associated with the large dome of high pressure continue to rise.
521 AM MDT Thu Jul 9 2020 An upper ridge will build over the area from the west this afternoon. At the surface, high pressure will be located over the eastern parts of the forecast area with low pressure developing thethe east of the Rockies. The high dewpoints and temperatures in the 90s will lead to moderate to strong instability developing during the afternoon.
As the low continues to shift up the mid-Atlantic over the Gulf Stream, high pressure is building in more over the Gulf of Mexico.
549 AM MDT Thu Jul 9 2020 Extremely dry and hot weather will continue over eastern Utah and western Colorado through the short term forecast period as a potent ridge of high pressure remains in control. However, wind speeds of 25 mph or greater will only be briefly reached and will favor the higher terrain. Highs on Friday will tick upward by 2-3 degrees as h5 heights associated with the large dome of high pressure continue to rise.
A strong upper level ridge of high pressure centered over the Desert Southwest will bring dry weather, generally light winds and above normal temperatures to the district during the next 7 days.
An area of high pressure continues to build to our southeast, bringing dangerous conditions to our region through the weekend. An area of high pressure continues to build to our southeast, working to increase temperatures across the Desert Southwest.
558 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2020 An approaching cold front will bring an increasing chance for thunderstorms today, especially this evening.
1018 AM EDT Thu Jul 9 2020 Lower tropospheric ridging is fractured across Florida, with one dominant node centered over the north-central Gulf of Mexico. A splintered western Atlantic ridge will meander near the Florida Keys and the Straits of Florida for the next several days.
545 AM MDT Thu Jul 9 2020 Extremely dry and hot weather will continue over eastern Utah and western Colorado through the short term forecast period as a potent ridge of high pressure remains in control. However, wind speeds of 25 mph or greater will only be briefly reached and will favor the higher terrain. Highs on Friday will tick upward by 2-3 degrees as h5 heights associated with the large dome of high pressure continue to rise.
511 AM EDT Thu Jul 9 2020 WV imagery and RAP analysis indicated a mid/upper level low into the southwest corner of Manitoba resulting wsw flow through the Upper Mississippi Valley into the northern Great Lakes. Although confidence is limited, there is a strong enough signfal that as the SD shrtwv lifts to the ene and the cold front nears thunderstorms will again increase in coverage with some developing/extending into west or central Upper Michigan even as the higher chances remain to the south. Although there may be trend toward cooler weather this weekend, above average temperatures are expected to continue. Temps will still climb into the low to mid 80s with 70s downwind of northwest flow off of Lake Superior.
High pressure aloft will expand north across the state and bring hot and dry conditions to the area through the weekend.
Temperatures warm into the low to mid 90s this afternoon.
Warmer conditions are expected today with highs generally reaching the lower 80s at many locations.
Today expect noticeably warmer temperatures with clear skies with high pressure building in more.
Very strong high pressure will build over the southwest United States this weekend, with dangerously hot temperatures expected across northern Arizona. Models are still consistent in showing very strong high pressure building over the Southwest this weekend, with generally dry conditions over most areas.
Dry high pressure now in place with sharply lower moisture will result in no shower or thunderstorm activity. The combination of the two will allow temperatures to climb into the low 90s today and into the low to mid 90s tomorrow and upper 90s over the weekend.
Today will be considerably warmer than yesterday, as much as 10 to 12 degrees higher in many locations.
A cold front will increase rain chance for the weekend, but will cool temperature back to seasonable levels. High humidity, combined with warm temperature under persistent ridging will make for another uncomfortable afternoon / early evening. Ridging will still dominate the weather scene today although with weakening indicated over Ohio zones via longwave trough approach. The high temperature prog of 10 to 13 degrees above the average was little-altered; however, those readings in conjunction with lower 70s dewpoints will drive heat index values to near the 100 degree mark for lowland areas generally along and south of the PA turnpike. Further encroachment of the aforementioned trough will support higher precip.
The combination of the two will allow temperatures to climb into the low 90s today and into the low to mid 90s tomorrow and upper 90s over the weekend.
Southern edge of stratocu on south side of the upper low moving east into west central Manitoba is down to about Hwy 2 Rugby to Minot to Williston and 06z NAM indicates pretty high 850 mb moisture spreading east today along and north of Hwy 2. Upper low will move east into the Interlake region in Manitoba north of Winnipeg this afternoon.