Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1048 PM EDT Wed Oct 14 2020 Currently - A pressure ridge extending along the Atlantic Coast and into the Gulf of Mexico is responsible for gentle to moderate northeast to east breezes across the Keys and surrounding waters. Considerable dry air is in place aloft due to ridging over Florida. Short Term Update - The high cell near the Carolina Coast will slide northeastward through the overnight period. However, it will continue to hold a ridge axis into the Gulf of Mexico. Will maintain the low chance showers through the overnight. A ridge extending from the Atlantic coast into the Gulf of Mexico will maintain gentle to moderate northeast to east breezes across Keys waters through the overnight period.
Tomorrow, afternoon temperatures will be 5 to 7 degrees cooler than today as the cooler airmass persists over the region.
Cooler overnight temperatures may produce some areas of frost across Treasure and Magic Valleys tonight, Expect a drier northwest flow on Thursday with temperatures continuing to cool slightly.
High pressure over Arizona will weaken over Arizona through this weekend with a cooling trend.
952 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2020 Going forecast on track with cold front and strong winds in its wake. (This evening through Thursday) A cold front will move across the area later this evening and overnight. Cooler air will also move in behind the front leading to highs only reaching the 60s and 70s Thursday afternoon, about 20 degrees cooler than what is expected this afternoon.
740 PM EDT Wed Oct 14 2020 High pressure will build into the region through tonight.
(Tonight through Wednesday) Strong winds associated with low pressure moving through MN and WI were sustained at 20 to 30 mph over central Iowa this afternoon. A leading weak cold front, largely a trough was through most of the forecast area, while a secondary stronger push of wind and cooler air was moving southeast across MN and se SD this afternoon. After a breezy and cool Thursday with temperatures only recovering into the 50s, Thursday night will likely see widespread frost with temperatures dropping into the low 30s and have mentioned frost only over the south and southeast, where there may be remaining warm season vulnerable vegetation.
Cooler air lingers in the region with afternoon highs tomorrow only hitting the 50s and 60s. Ridging over the West leads to calm and quiet weather through the rest of the week.
Temperatures in the low 60s and a clear sky are making for another nice night in the Mid State. A few high clouds are pushing this direction, ahead of a cold front set to arrive here tomorrow. Expect Thursday's cold front to swing winds around to the northwest mid-to-late morning.
609 PM MDT Wed Oct 14 2020 Winds will continue to decrease through the rest of the evening, therefore the High Wind Warnings were cancelled. Carrothers Will cancel the High Wind Warning for most areas where winds were gusting mainly in the 20s and 30s. Unstable NW flow will continue over the area on Thursday, and another cold front will move through the area.
Ridging is beginning to amplify offshore while a trough deepens in the Midwest. Winds today will be lighter, and this will allow our morning temperatures to drop below freezing across much of the forecast area.
307 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2020 A cold front is knocking on our northwest doorstep early this morning and will make passage across the entire area by early afternoon. The concern tonight will turn to frost potential, and perhaps even freezing temperatures for portions of the area.
400 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2020 An upper level trough was located over the central states this morning with a mid level trough axis moving through eastern Kansas at 08Z. Soundings also show dry lower boundary layer conditions along with the winds look to keep frost formation on the low side or patchy in a few sheltered low lying area.
400 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2020 Northwesterly flow will persist at the surface and aloft today as a large trough continues to drop southward across the Midwest. Northwest winds are expected to remain in the 5-10 MPH range, but we should still see enough radiational cooling to get subfreezing temperatures in northwestern portions of the area.
447 AM EDT Thu Oct 15 2020 Cooler air will overspread the region today through the weekend.
(Today and tonight) A cold front continues to move through Oklahoma and western north Texas, bringing cooler temperatures and strong winds behind the front. The High Wind Warning in western Oklahoma and western north Texas will continue until 15Z today, however this warning will be gradually trimmed as winds diminish far behind the cold front. Temperatures will be noticeably cooler Thursday, with highs ranging from the mid-60s in northern Oklahoma, to mid 70s in northern Texas/southern Oklahoma.
1259 AM EDT Thu Oct 15 2020 Showers will return late this afternoon and tonight as a strong cold front crosses the area.
(Today and tonight) A strong cold front at 07Z extended from Fredrick, OK to Lubbock, moving south quickly. The cold front will crash south across West Central Texas this morning and be south of the I-10 corridor by 17Z. Much cooler today, with highs in the 70s.
Early morning water vapor imagery/RAP analysis showed the circulation around an upper level trough over the Central Plains that is progged dig south through the period and support a cold front into our CWA by late afternoon. Early morning surface analysis had a ridge nosing west across the northern Gulf coast and a cold front across the mid Mississippi valley. Our airmass was still rather cool and dry with surface dew points running in the low to mid 50s and the 00Z Thu JAN sounding showing a PWAT less than a half inch. Models suggest that moisture will try to return to our region ahead of the approaching cold front that should move into the northwest portion of our CWA by late afternoon during peak heating.
440 AM EDT Thu Oct 15 2020 Onshore flow will return today as high pressure moves away from the region.
400 AM EDT Thu Oct 15 2020 A mid/upper level trough will move across the eastern U.
355 AM EDT Thu Oct 15 2020 Showers will return late this afternoon and tonight as a strong cold front crosses the area.
Utah remains under a dry but cooler moderate to strong northwesterly flow aloft this evening. Some strong gusty winds continue along exposed areas along the highest ridgelines, otherwise winds have trended weaker across most areas. Overnight mins will be colder with mountain valleys as well as some of the normally colder valleys across northern and central Utah expected to see temperatures near to below freezing. This will bring a reinforcing boundary into the area tomorrow, so temperatures will continue to trend cooler.
High pressure will weaken over Arizona through this weekend with a cooling trend.
246 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2020 A cold front is currently making its way south across the region. Stuck with the model consensus forecast for highs today with more cloud expected, which will be 15 to 20 degrees cooler than yesterday in some spots.
ABM Chattanooga Airport, TN 81 55 65 41 67 / 0 20 10 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 78 53 62 40 63 / 0 30 20 10 0 Oak Ridge, TN 78 52 62 39 64 / 0 40 20 10 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 76 50 60 36 61 / 10 50 50 10 0.
This moisture will be in advance of a cold front that will move across our airspace today as well. The cold front likely wont make it into the LFK terminal until closer to 00z this evening with ceilings likely improving near and north of our I-20 terminals between 00z and 03z this evening. Look for south to southwest winds ahead of the cold front with speeds near 6-12kts. /issued 933 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2020/ Cold front currently across central Oklahoma this evening will continue to drift southeast overnight. With increased cloud-cover, warmer overnight low temperatures expected tonight as compared to last night with lows in the upper 50s to lower 60s by daybreak.
A cool and breezy day is expected as cold advection continues in the wake of yesterday's cold front; temperatures will be around 10 degrees below normal this afternoon with highs in the mid 40s to low 50s.
A cold front will continue to shift winds from south to north through sunrise across all TAF sites. Cold front moving into far northeast Oklahoma this evening, currently located near a Burbank, Bigheart, Caney line.
15/06Z TAF CYCLE A cold front will push through Arkansas from the northwest overnight and Thursday morning.
315 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2020 A cold front moving through the area early this morning has resulted in isolated to scattered showers, although precipitation amounts are very light due to dry air in place. The main impact from the front is significantly cooler temperatures than yesterday. Highs today will be in the 60s, or 20 to 25 degrees cooler than yesterday.
In the wake of the cold front expect winds to remain out of the northwest today, although much lighter at 10 to 20 mph.
315 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2020 An upper trough is over the northern Rocky Mountains and Midwest. A cold front associated with this trough is pushing southward through West Texas and eastern New Mexico. Temperatures today will be quite a bit cooler than yesterday with highs mostly in the 70s.
Although temperatures will be much cooler today, there may be a window during the afternoon hours with an elevated risk of fire spread in cured crops and grassland.
Cold front was located approx 175nm N of MAF and moving s at 39kts making its arrival around 10Z.
126 AM EDT Thu Oct 15 2020 Cooler air will overspread the region today through the weekend.
256 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2020 Skies are mostly clear across the Mid-South early this morning with temperatures ranging from the lower 50s to around 60 degrees. A cold front currently extends from eastern Illinois through northwest Arkansas and into west Texas. This cold front will move through the Mid-South later today and should reach into central Mississippi by this evening. Temperatures will be turn cooler behind the front with highs ranging from the mid 60s to around 80 degrees. As the cold front continues to move south tonight into south Mississippi late tonight, rain showers will be ending from north to south with the best chance of rain across portions of north Mississippi.
1150 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2020 The cold front is running a little ahead of schedule, now racing into the northern part of the CWA (far southern Texas Panhandle). /issued 631 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2020/ Breezy conditions will persist this evening before increasing once again around 6Z-7Z thanks to a strong cold front which will certainly not be much fun to fly through. Blowing dust will continue to be an issue through the afternoon and then again along and behind the cold front later tonight tonight. The cold front arriving tonight is currently moving across southern Kansas and should be in the extreme southern Panhandle by midnight and through our CWA before sunrise.
319 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2020 Broad upper trough extends across the Northern Plains with the main vort lobe stretching from the western Great Lakes into the central High Plains. Cold front pushed through the forecast area early Wed evening and is now situated from southeast MO into southern OK. Warmer temps Sat will come at a cost as southwest winds will be strong, with gusts approaching 40 mph possible. So confidence is high that cold front will surge through Sat night and clear southern KS early Sun morning. ECMWF is more aggressive than the GFS in generating precip along a warm front over southeast KS Mon into Mon night. However, both models do agree on bringing another cold front through Tue into Tue night. A cold front pushed through the region earlier this evening.
Yesterday's highs topped out in the mid 80s, but today will be much cooler with expected highs only in the 50s to near 60. With the main axis of high pressure sliding south of us overnight tonight and a weak wave moving through to the north.
Next package (06Z) should include the initial guesses for the timing of the highly anticipated cold front.
Pattern change in store this weekend as as a massive ridge will build in the eastern Pac forcing a large pocket of arctic air south into the CONUS.
Cold frontal boundary is somewhat evident and coincident with area of brief partial clearing. RAP/HRRR and MOS guidance show strong winds continuing to push east through this evening in the wake of the cold front. The longer term continues to look cooler than normal, with several chances for mainly light precipitation (including some snow flakes at times). A deep upper low will remain anchored to our north through the weekend, with northwest flow predominating over us.
259 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2020 A cold front passed through last night accompanied with some gusty winds. Skies clearing from the west will lead to mostly sunny skies by the afternoon as high pressure builds into the region. Increasing cloud cover associated with the next incoming short wave and sustained overnight surface winds would help keep much of the area above freezing.
1039 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2020 Going forecast on track with cold front and strong winds in its wake. (This evening through Thursday) A cold front will move across the area later this evening and overnight. Cooler air will also move in behind the front leading to highs only reaching the 60s and 70s Thursday afternoon, about 20 degrees cooler than what is expected this afternoon.
Another warmer day across Central Alabama as temperatures will once again climb into the upper 70s to low 80s, with perhaps a few mid 80s in the southeast. A strong cold front will slide in during the evening into the northwest and then continue to slide south and east during the day Friday.
615 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2020 (Today and tonight) A strong cold front at 07Z extended from Fredrick, OK to Lubbock, moving south quickly. The cold front will crash south across West Central Texas this morning and be south of the I-10 corridor by 17Z. Much cooler today, with highs in the 70s.
402 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2020 An upper trough over the plains today will slowly shift east on Friday leaving the Dakotas under northwest flow aloft. Temperatures will remain cooler than normal with highs in the upper 40s to mid 50s.
528 AM EDT Thu Oct 15 2020 Showers will return late this afternoon and tonight as a strong cold front crosses the area. A strong cold front will cross Ohio and NW PA this morning, reaching PIT by early afternoon.
648 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2020 A high pressure located over Nebraska continues to draw down cool Canadian air over the Northern Plains. Afternoon high temperatures are expected to be in the low 50s, but mostly sunny skies may cause it to feel a bit warmer. The cold air mass allows temperatures to again fall to around freezing by early morning Friday.
819 AM EDT Thu Oct 15 2020 Showers will return late this afternoon and tonight as a strong cold front crosses the area. Changes for the morning update included adjustments to wind and precip cosmetics as showers will be developing later today with the encroachment of a cold front with an amplifying upper trough on the strength of a strong jet core.
Although temperatures will be much cooler today, there may be a window during the afternoon hours with an elevated risk of fire spread in cured crops and grassland. Friday night, a warm front will lift north into the region and may support some light rain in the far northern counties.
15/12Z TAF CYCLE A cold front will push through Arkansas from the northwest today. Today Through Friday Night A cold front was pushing into northwest Arkansas from the Plains early this morning. It will be significantly cooler/drier behind the front, with temperatures toward the Missouri border dropping in the lower to mid 30s. High pressure will follow the front on Friday.
627 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2020 An upper trough over the plains today will slowly shift east on Friday leaving the Dakotas under northwest flow aloft. Temperatures will remain cooler than normal with highs in the upper 40s to mid 50s.
Much cooler air behind a cold front will slide into the eastern half of the state today.
In the wake of the cold front expect winds to remain out of the northwest today, although much lighter at 10 to 20 mph. Friday: The cooler temperatures will hold firmly in place as an upper level trough sags through the Midwestern states. Friday morning will likely see below freezing temperatures across much of northeastern Nebraska and much of western Iowa. This issuance will end the issuance of frost/freeze products in this area as widespread near or below freezing temperatures are likely and we are now about a week past the typical growing season. Areas within the frost advisory (mainly areas south of the Platte River) may still be susceptible to freezing temperatures past Friday morning, but that will be determined later.
Northwesterly flow will persist at the surface and aloft today as a large trough continues to drop southward across the Midwest. Northwest winds are expected to remain in the 5-10 MPH range, but we should still see enough radiational cooling to get subfreezing temperatures in northwestern portions of the area. By Friday, we will see rising heights aloft as the trough shifts eastward and takes the coldest temperatures with it.
535 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2020 Broad upper trough extends across the Northern Plains with the main vort lobe stretching from the western Great Lakes into the central High Plains. Cold front pushed through the forecast area early Wed evening and is now situated from southeast MO into southern OK. Warmer temps Sat will come at a cost as southwest winds will be strong, with gusts approaching 40 mph possible. So confidence is high that cold front will surge through Sat night and clear southern KS early Sun morning. ECMWF is more aggressive than the GFS in generating precip along a warm front over southeast KS Mon into Mon night. However, both models do agree on bringing another cold front through Tue into Tue night.
Increasing southerly flow today ahead of an approaching cold front. As of 3am, the cold front was moving through central Oklahoma stretching down across DFW moving towards the southeast. It will also usher in a cooler temperatures (highs only in the upper 60s on Friday) and a breezy northerly wind that will continue through the day on Friday. The weekend is looking pretty fantastic weather-wise as high pressure builds in over the region producing temperatures in the mid 70s to low 80s and clear skies.
A cooler air mass across the Great Basin will result in temperatures rising only into the 60s across much of northern NEvada today accompanied by lighter north winds.
402 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2020 A high pressure located over Nebraska continues to draw down cool Canadian air over the Northern Plains. Afternoon high temperatures are expected to be in the low 50s, but mostly sunny skies may cause it to feel a bit warmer. The cold air mass allows temperatures to again fall to around freezing by early morning Friday.
The day will stay fairly mild as the cold front is still on track for tonight.
656 AM EDT Thu Oct 15 2020 Cooler air will overspread the region today through the weekend.
The highest chance for that would be south of Interstate 94 and west of ND Highway 49. From a chilly start in the 20s, high temperatures today should be able to make at least the lower 40s north to mid and upper 40s south with sunshine and at least some weak warm air advection off the surface. Low pressure takes shape through central Montana (north south orientation) on Friday.
Otherwise hand analysis of the H500 pattern shows a large gyre of low pressure over most of the continent. The exception of the leading edge of the amplified EPac Ridge nosing into the SW CONUS. Temperatures will be cooler behind the front and hover below normal north to few degrees above far south. The second day behind the cold front can often be colder morning and tonight looks clearer and winds should decouple in the dry air. So freezing conditions look more probable and decided to add a few more locations. Did not include the Grand Valley attm but there will likely be colder pockets (Fruita) that could touch freezing.
Cold air advection continues behind yesterday's cold front, though is slowly waning with time.
A cold front is knocking on our northwest doorstep early this morning and will make passage across the entire area by early afternoon. The concern tonight will turn to frost potential, and perhaps even freezing temperatures for portions of the area. However, given somewhat low confidence on freezing temperatures, along with matching up with neighboring offices, have decided to opt for just a Frost Advisory for now.
A few clouds were developing across parts of the forecast area ahead of a cold front. Chattanooga Airport, TN 79 53 65 42 68 / 0 20 20 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 77 52 62 40 64 / 0 30 20 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 77 51 62 39 64 / 0 40 20 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 75 50 58 36 62 / 10 40 40 0 0.
Cooler and more seasonable temperatures for mid-October will prevail today behind yesterday's brush by frontal passage.
620 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2020 (Today and tonight) A cold front continues to move through Oklahoma and western north Texas, bringing cooler temperatures and strong winds behind the front. The High Wind Warning in western Oklahoma and western north Texas will continue until 15Z today, however this warning will be gradually trimmed as winds diminish far behind the cold front. Temperatures will be noticeably cooler Thursday, with highs ranging from the mid-60s in northern Oklahoma, to mid 70s in northern Texas/southern Oklahoma. Overnight lows Thursday into friday will range from the lower 30s in northwestern Oklahoma to mid 40s further south.
A dry cold front will cool temperatures today and Friday for areas northeast of the Mogollon Rim to the Four Corners. A dry cold front is pushing southward this morning and will help to produce cooler temperatures today and Friday for areas along and northeast of the Mogollon Rim.
617 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2020 A cold front passed through last night accompanied with some gusty winds. Skies clearing from the west will lead to mostly sunny skies by the afternoon as high pressure builds into the region. Increasing cloud cover associated with the next incoming short wave and sustained overnight surface winds would help keep much of the area above freezing. With the soundings showing the low levels saturating, added a small chance of rain for this time period.
Today Through Friday Night A cold front was pushing into northwest Arkansas from the Plains early this morning. It will be significantly cooler/drier behind the front, with temperatures toward the Missouri border dropping in the lower to mid 30s. High pressure will follow the front on Friday.
Will prevail at least MVFR ceilings through much of the day as a cold front begins to move into our airspace from the northwest later this morning. This moisture will continue expanding north and eastward as we go through the morning and will eventually meet up with a strong cold front currently moving southward across Central Ok into NW AR. The upper level trough, responsible for the cold front, will see the best forcing associated with it north of our region, across the Tenn/Ohio Valleys. Temperatures are tricky today as the initial push of cooler air is very shallow and MOS has come in much cooler for highs today not accounting for much in the way of any frontal forcing, except across our southern third.
An upper level trough was located over the central states this morning with a mid level trough axis moving through eastern Kansas at 08Z. Soundings also show dry lower boundary layer conditions along with the winds look to keep frost formation on the low side or patchy in a few sheltered low lying area.
Cold front has moved s of all TAF sites. /issued 315 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2020/ An upper trough is over the northern Rocky Mountains and Midwest. A cold front associated with this trough is pushing southward through West Texas and eastern New Mexico. Temperatures today will be quite a bit cooler than yesterday with highs mostly in the 70s. The upper trough moves further east on Friday.