Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
652 PM EDT Wed Jul 28 2021 Showers and thunderstorms are likely Thursday with the passage of a cold front. High pressure returns dry and seasonably cool conditions for the first half of the weekend. Lingering cloud cover from the weakening MCS may delay destabilization and convective development in advance of the approaching cold front.
Currently, a low pressure system is situated in central MN and a high pressure system over our region. This ridge of high pressure at the surface and aloft is allowing for drier conditions, and light flow at the surface. the ridge of high pressure will be the main feature as it will continue to shift closer to the region. heat indices is the main feature as a strong upper level ridge will bring temperatures into the mid 90s west of I-65 and low- mid 90s to the east. The highest heat indices will be felt west of I-65. Thursday night will bring the CWA it's next chance of mentionable weather as a west to east oriented cold front drops south towards the region.
At 400 PM, a 597 dm (at 500 mb) ridge centered along the Nebraska/Kansas border was doing its best to oppress the region. Tonight and Thursday: The strong ridge aloft should remain in place, though some cooling is expected behind a surface front.
A quiet and hot weather pattern continues for southwest Kansas and the central plains as a large area of high pressure centered over northern Kansas will keep the jet stream well to the north in the northern plains. Tonight light winds will continue with mainly clear skies and with the warm air mass in place temperatures will fall into the lower 70s.
Not much has changed in regards to earlier forecast of cold front sliding south on Thursday. At 400 PM, a 597 dm (at 500 mb) ridge centered along the Nebraska/Kansas border was doing its best to oppress the region. Tonight and Thursday: The strong ridge aloft should remain in place, though some cooling is expected behind a surface front.
The upper low will continue to move away toward the west today leaving a weakness in the ridge. Temperatures will start to rebound today with highs a couple of degrees warmer that yesterday.
Current temperatures are in the 90s with dewpoints in the low/middle 70s. During the weekend a cold front will travel south towards the MS Valley region.
Seasonably warm weather pattern continues inland through Friday with high pressure over the region.
1255 AM EDT Thu Jul 29 2021 Showers and thunderstorms will be crossing the area today with the passage of a cold front. High pressure returns dry and seasonably cool conditions for the first half of the weekend. Then during the afternoon, the surface cold front will trek southeastward, clearing the area sometime during the evening hours. How much activity occurs with the upper level wave, and how much cloud cover is left over, will impact the effect the passing cold front will have.
At the surface there is a subtle inverted trough moving through the area with a weak area of convergence situated over the distant Straits of Florida. Meanwhile, a low and mid level trough is sinking south from the FL Panhandle and will act to shove the already weak ridge axis to our south. Thereafter, ridge out over the Atlantic will build westward. From synopsis: A ridge axis will straddle the Florida Keys island chain through today, resulting in light to gentle generally east to southeast breezes. The ridge will slide northward tonight through the weekend bringing the axis over south-central Florida, resulting in breezes freshening slightly. There is the potential for island cloud line development this afternoon, primarily in the Lower Keys.
Lows tonight will again be mainly in the low to mid 70s, and highs on Thursday warming into the mid to upper 90s.
The strong ridge of high pressure aloft building south from the Central Plains will continue to increase its presence over our region tomorrow, leading to higher max temperatures, a little more oppressive heat indices, and even more isolated afternoon shower and thunderstorm chances.
Our area is close to the southern fringes of upper level ridging situated to our north, and weak disturbances along these fringes in combination with daytime heating and the sea breeze front could help to generate some showers and thunder- storms across Southeast Texas today and tomorrow. With highs in the mid to upper 90s inland and in the lower 90s at the coast and dew points expected to remain in/around the mid 70s, expect to see heat index values peaking around a 103-107 range.
With high pressure expected to remain locked over the Northern Rockies in the coming days, expect smoke to be a fixture each day, as well as hot temperatures and very mild overnight temperatures.
A weak disturbance will continue to track westward out of Texas today allowing stronger mid level ridging to build southward across the Red River. Despite this stronger ridging, a persistent east-southeast flow will provide sufficient moisture to the region and should still allow for a few widely scattered thunderstorms during peak heating. Temperatures will nudge upward through Friday in response to the building ridge.
(Today and tonight) Water vapor imagery early this morning shows the upper ridge dominating the central US. Expect another hot and muggy day under the ridge, with heat index values exceeding 105 along and east of I-35 (heat advisory).
Upper level high pressure centered near northeast KS continues to dominate the central and southern CONUS. High temperatures should be a degree or two cooler than yesterday due to more persistent southeast surface winds, but convective temperatures may still be reached. Similar conditions are expected tomorrow, but subtle changes will start to take place in the upper levels as the 500mb high pressure begins to elongate in response to a deepening trough over the Great Lakes.
An elevated layer of smoke and significant middle and high clouds has slowed destabilization across the area today, but surface dewpoints have risen into the upper 60s to low 70s and large scale forcing will become much more favorable this evening as a strong upper trough moves across the area. The precipitation will end overnight with cooler and less humid air arriving Thursday.
Temperatures will continue to cool as the cold front moves farther south and east and the sun sets. A cold front moving southeast across the region is analyzed, at this time, almost two-thirds of the way through the CWA this afternoon, located from appx Britton to Murdo. As for temperatures, the low level dry air advection/cold air advection being started this afternoon behind this current cold frontal passage will continue overnight and during the day on Thursday. Much cooler temperature readings are in store for Thursday. The period opens Friday with an upper ridge west/upper trough east pattern continuing over the CONUS. Northwest flow early on in the period eventually becomes north-northwest flow before there is some potential for seeing the western CONUS upper ridge begin to flatten out.
Upper ridge begins to lose some influence over the eastern portion of the Central Plains as it gradually retrogrades westward with an upper trough amplifying and diving into the eastern CONUS Friday into the weekend.
The hot and humid conditions will continue Thursday and Friday as this area of high pressure amplifies and gradually builds west into the Mid South and Tennessee Valley.
However, only isolated showers/storms are expected along the sea breeze as ridging/ subsidence increases aloft. Mid/upr level support isn't great given the ridge aloft, but still expect scattered activity along the sea breeze.
1039 PM CDT Wed Jul 28 2021 (This evening through Thursday) Midlevel ridge remains in place, and persistent south/southeast flow will keep dew point temperatures in the low to mid-70's through at least tomorrow.
and Friday Showers and thunderstorms have ended across the region, but areas of low stratus and fog were forming in northern WI, in the wake of a cold frontal passage. High temperatures should range from the middle to upper 70s north to the lower to middle 80s south. Canadian high pressure will bring partly cloudy skies and cooler weather tonight into Friday.
Forecast issue today is heat advisory down south and eventual passage of a cold front currently situated roughly from southwest SD to southern MN.
Broad ridging over the northern/Canadian Rockies will amplify this weekend and result in an extended dry period.
The result will be slightly cooler temperatures and generally light winds across the region. Later today a weak disturbance with limited moisture will attempt to push up and over the upper level ridge. Tonight, the mentioned disturbance will flatten the ridge and push eastward. A ridge in the west then amplifies and brings dry northwest flow to the region for the remainder of Friday and on through the weekend.
1132 PM CDT Wed Jul 28 2021 The forecast concern in the short term will be the cold front moving in through Thursday and resulting thunderstorm chances. An upper level disturbance currently moving into the western Great Lakes Region this afternoon will drive a cold front through north central Nebraska late tonight. The cold front will continue to drop southward on Thursday and reach into southwest Nebraska Thursday afternoon and stall out. Thunderstorm chances will increase overnight across north central Nebraska as the upper ridge breaks down from the Northern Plains. The front will lift north as a warm front to near Highway 2 during the afternoon.
Expect temperatures to generally be 2-3 degrees warmer than yesterday with similar dew points, resulting in maximum heat index values of 105-115 degrees (warmest off the plateau) today. A cold front currently across IA and NE will shift southeast, hanging up just northeast of the CWA tonight. Much of the area will similar conditions to today, with the exception of the far northeastern CWA which may be 3-5 degrees cooler in the vicinity of the front.
/Issued 956 PM CDT Wed Jul 28 2021/ Mid level high pressure centered over nern KS this evening continues to dominate our weather. /Issued 316 PM CDT Wed Jul 28 2021/ Ridge of high pressure continues to be the dominate feature across the Central and Southern Plains this afternoon. the ridge is progged to remain in control over the region with afternoon temperatures each day close to or a degree or so warmer compared to the day before. though still in the low/mid 70s instead of upper 70s.
Although with the freezing level at 14000 feet and not too much of a chance for any rotating updrafts quarter sized hail and wind gusts to 60 mph would be the main threats. Quite a few models are hinting that the lower levels front, from roughly 850mb to the surface will have very little activity with more forcing/moisture and weaker capping nearer the 800-700mb boundary.
Strong high pressure will keep VFR in place through most of the TAF period.
Stacked ridging will sink a bit more to the southeast, almost directly over the state by Friday.
(This afternoon through Thursday night) Quite a bit of activity this morning thanks to our inverted trough axis pivoting across the Rio Concho, eventually on the other side of the Pecos river. Thick layer of cumulus and altostratus accompanying the convection has brought about significantly cooler temps for the Permian Basin and adjacent Pecos River valley. Primary destabilization will occur in areas that have seen less rain so far, pinning the Lower Trans Pecos and Lower Brewster as the most likely areas to see developing showers/storms. Temps tonight will run near normal with tomorrow eyeing for near to perhaps slightly below normal areawide thanks to the lower heights still present from the backside of the trough. Highs in the low-mid 90s will suffice for the forecast, followed by a return of ridging Thursday night with seasonal lows forecast.
Hot and humid conditions are expected through the period as an upper level ridge over the central CONUS begins to build into the region. Down at the surface, a high pressure moves west across the northern Gulf causing a weak trough, associated with a low pressure over the Eastern Seaboard, to get hung up across the area.
The remnants of this system will pass well to our N Thurs morning into mid day as we remain strongly capped beneath the thermal ridge, but high cirrus could spill into northern areas and potentially keep high temps slightly cooler. CD Chattanooga Airport, TN 99 75 96 73 95 / 0 10 20 20 20 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 97 75 94 69 93 / 0 10 30 20 20 Oak Ridge, TN 97 74 92 68 92 / 0 10 30 20 30 Tri Cities Airport, TN 94 71 89 63 87 / 0 30 30 20 30.
357 AM CDT Thu Jul 29 2021 Thunderstorms with damaging winds were moving through the highway 20 corridor early this morning. A cold front will drop south through the area this morning with redevelopment of showers and storms across the south CWA this afternoon along the front. Tonight, quiet and less humid conditions will be found with lows in the lower 60s in NW IL and lower 70s in NE MO.
A weak disturbance will continue to track westward out of Texas today allowing stronger mid level ridging to build southward across the Red River. Despite this stronger ridging, a persistent east-southeast flow will provide sufficient moisture to the region and should still allow for a few widely scattered thunderstorms during peak heating. Temperatures will nudge upward through Friday in response to the building ridge. /Issued 327 PM CDT Wed Jul 28 2021/ /Thursday Night Onward/ The next several days will continue to be hot across North and Central Texas as our dome of high pressure remains in control.
Once this system slides south of the area we should have a quieter and cooler day for Thursday and even Friday.
Precipitable water values will be slightly higher, but in addition a westward moving short wave trough is forecast to move across northern Mexico, with some influence from this wave extending northward into Arizona. On Friday, the threat for heavy rain is expected to be focused primarily from I-17/US 89 westward as the short wave trough continues its westward trek.
Cooler and drier air returns Friday. This would suggest the highest severe potential for possible second round around midday in our southern zones generally in line with latest SLIGHT SWODY1. Much cooler and less humid with highs on Fri in the 70s.
These showers will be isolated to scattered, and the main risks will be gusty winds, frequent lightning, and locally heavy rainfall inside thunderstorm development (especially given the higher PW values over the next couple days).
355 AM EDT Thu Jul 29 2021 Showers and thunderstorms will be crossing the area today with the passage of a cold front. High pressure returns dry and seasonably cool conditions for the first half of the weekend. Then during the afternoon, the surface cold front will trek southeastward, clearing the area sometime during the evening hours. How much activity occurs with the upper level wave, and how much cloud cover is left over, will impact the effect the passing cold front will have.
Many areas will see little or no measurable precipitation with a very dry atmosphere in the lower levels with this system. Cloud cover today will keep temperatures somewhat cooler than they have been lately. The ridge axis backs to the west tonight and builds over the Canadian Rockies and western Montana and Idaho on Friday. Clear skies will allow for warmer temperatures that will be in the mid 80s to mid 90s for highs. The ridge expands into all of Montana over the weekend with hot and dry weather continuing with highs in the 90s in most areas.
The warm, wet pattern continues across South Florida as a tropical upper tropospheric trough (TUTT) departs the region today. At the surface, the ridge axis remains over the southern peninsula of Florida which is creating a very light wind flow pattern that will largely be dominated by any sea and lake breezes that develop. To the north, a weakening trough will slide southward into south central Florida becoming more diffuse through the day on Friday. Temperatures both days will reach the lower to mid 90s for highs with heat index values in the triple digits.
Some of the high res models are hinting at this along with the HREF showing a focused area for convection across the northern portions of the CWA. If some organization can occur, strong gusty winds, heavy rain, and some blowing dust may be possible as storms move off the higher terrain and into portions of eastern Pinal County. Some of the high res models hint at this moving southeast to northwest, likely generating thunderstorms along the bndrys.
The pattern begins to change over the weekend as a large upper trough drops southward toward the Gulf Coast.
329 AM MDT Thu Jul 29 2021 Upper ridge centered over the central Plains will dominate the weather over our region during this period with warm conditions and appreciable moisture aloft. Weak disturbances moving along the periphery of the upper ridge can produce isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms over the region today and over areas south and west of Billings on Friday. RMS Models continue to show orientation of upper level ridge stretched NW to SE across the region to start the period. This looks to keep monsoonal moisture off to the south and west through the weekend, keeping any precip potential mainly confined to the high terrain. Some activity may be able to move off the terrain, but high pressure will limit that significantly.
929 AM EDT Thu Jul 29 2021 Showers and thunderstorms will be crossing the area today with the passage of a cold front. High pressure returns dry and seasonably cool conditions for the first half of the weekend.
Northwest flow will prevail through the rest of the period as the ridge centers itself over the southwestern U.
330 AM MDT Thu Jul 29 2021 Latest WV imagery/upper air analysis showed the center of the upper ridge from eastern CO through KS.
After a hot day yesterday, most communities are running at least several degrees warmer compared to 24 hours ago -- if not more. An expansive upper level ridge centered over the Great Plains will continue to promote south/southeasterly flow aloft over the Southwestern United States. Temperatures are forecast to moderate over the weekend as an upper level trough develops along the 140th meridian.
For Friday, with the high pressure still parked over us temperatures look to hit the century mark for at least parts of the Mid-South. As we head into the weekend, amplification of the ridge over The Rockies and the trough over the Great Lakes will return us to northwest flow.
/issued 439 AM CDT Thu Jul 29 2021/ SHORT TERM (Now through Friday): Latest IR/WV satellite imagery indicate the weak 500 mb inverted trough over northern Mexico and a 598dm ridge centered over Kansas. Today should be drier as the mid level ridge over the Plains builds a little farther south. Another weak, inverted trough will move westward round the southern periphery of the ridge on Friday.
Ridging over the Great Plains continues to slowly build southeast into the Ark-La-Tex, reinforcing temperatures further into the upper 90s this afternoon.
Scattered showers and storms will be possible each day with the highest coverage during the overnight and early morning hours before moving inland during the afternoon.
SHORT TERM (Now through Friday): Latest IR/WV satellite imagery indicate the weak 500 mb inverted trough over northern Mexico and a 598dm ridge centered over Kansas. Today should be drier as the mid level ridge over the Plains builds a little farther south. Another weak, inverted trough will move westward round the southern periphery of the ridge on Friday.
(Today through Friday afternoon) WV imagery shows the upper ridge centered over Kansas, and extending from the central Rockies down through the Gulf coast states. For overnight mins, current temps are right around normal overnight lows, but mins should be a couple of degrees warmer Thursday night due to a little more cloud cover. Regarding rain chances, they'll once again be confined to the higher terrain out west this afternoon/evening, and CAMs suggest a little more widespread Friday.
-Cold front is expected to build into the region this afternoon. -Cold front is expected to stall across the area, with areas south and west of a line from the KC metro to Sedalia warming to heat indices near 105 F on Friday. Muggy environment remains in place with large upper ridge dominating west of the Mississippi River. At the surface, elongated high pressure along the Gulf Coast leading to more consistent southerly flow across the region today. With abundant moisture across the Central and Southern Plains, will see moisture increase across the region today as a cold front approaches from the north. As of 08Z, cold front was located near highway 20 in northern Iowa.
Pwats jump on Friday, as the ridge axis that has been over central Nevada quickly shifts westward over the western US.
652 AM CDT Thu Jul 29 2021 (Today and tonight) Water vapor imagery early this morning shows the upper ridge dominating the central US. Expect another hot and muggy day under the ridge, with heat index values exceeding 105 along and east of I-35 (heat advisory).
I made conservative adjustments for where the highest concentrations of smoke are, and will monitor trends for temps. Broad ridging over the northern/Canadian Rockies will amplify this weekend and result in an extended dry period.
This coincides with the wly low level jet shifting south as the cold front approaches from the north. The high clouds and some stratus this morning will then transition to partly cloudy skies for the afternoon. Thus temps will be cooler on Friday versus today. High pressure will move across srn WI Friday afternoon.
This has started over the White Mountains, Mogollon Rim and the higher elevations of northcentral Arizona. This activity will build throughout the day with showers and thunderstorms moving into the lower elevations through the afternoon and evening hours.
Thunderstorms with damaging winds were moving through the highway 20 corridor early this morning. A cold front will drop south through the area this morning with redevelopment of showers and storms across the south CWA this afternoon along the front. Tonight, quiet and less humid conditions will be found with lows in the lower 60s in NW IL and lower 70s in NE MO.
533 AM EDT Thu Jul 29 2021 Showers and thunderstorms will be crossing the area today with the passage of a cold front. High pressure returns dry and seasonably cool conditions for the first half of the weekend. Then during the afternoon, the surface cold front will trek southeastward, clearing the area sometime during the evening hours. How much activity occurs with the upper level wave, and how much cloud cover is left over, will impact the effect the passing cold front will have.
A weak cold front is gradually sinking southward towards the local area this morning. a slight change in the warmer direction will need to be monitored as it would likely justify the extension of heat advisories across parts of the local area another day.
Seasonably warm weather pattern continues inland through Friday with high pressure over the region. High clouds continue to be a factor giving and obstructed view of the low level clouds that have struggled to push inland overnight. KSFO Bridge Approach.
654 AM EDT Thu Jul 29 2021 Showers and thunderstorms will be crossing the area today with the passage of a cold front. High pressure returns dry and seasonably cool conditions for the first half of the weekend.
524 AM MDT Thu Jul 29 2021 Latest WV imagery/upper air analysis showed the center of the upper ridge from eastern CO through KS.
High temps today will reach the low to mid 90s and heat indices of 101-106 degrees. The highest coverage of afternoon/early evening storms will focus along and west of I-95, though there will still be activity across the Intracoastal Waterway and very near shore Atlc waters.
Once fog dissipates expect VFR conditions with mostly sunny skies as high pressure remains in control. However, only isolated showers/storms are expected along the sea breeze as ridging/ subsidence increases aloft. Mid/upr level support isn't great given the ridge aloft, but still expect scattered activity along the sea breeze.