Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
High pressure aloft centered over the eastern Pacific will maintain a northwest flow across the Great Basin through late in the week.
Models suggest a little warmer tonight, then highs Wednesday about like today.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 46 66 51 57 29 / 50 50 90 60 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 43 63 51 57 28 / 40 30 100 80 0 Oak Ridge, TN 42 63 50 56 26 / 30 60 100 70 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 41 58 50 56 27 / 20 20 90 90 10 NC.
A deep upper trough shifts out of the west and lifts northeast across the Plains into the Upper Midwest. Warmer air and moisture will push north into Iowa on Wednesday, along with some decent lift.
These bands, while they will impact all TAF sites through 00Z, will weaken as they move northward and become farther removed from the main low pressure system that will cross far southwest NM between 00Z and 06Z. The slow-moving low pressure system should exit to the east of NM toward the end of the forecast period. However, areas of freezing fog may develop overnight into Wednesday morning. Good looking storm is currently along the AZ/Mexico border, while a short wave trough to its north is feeding into the closed low. Most models including the high resolution models diminish snow over the north today. They also mostly show the southwest and south central higher terrain getting the higher snow amounts.
1036 AM MST Tue Feb 11 2020 Positively-tilted trough and northwest flow continues across the western US this morning with trough axis stretching from the Upper Midwest into the Four Corners. A closed low continues to slowly meander south and east of the Baja Peninsula, having only moved a few hundred miles from this time last night. Trough axis will shift southeastward early this morning with subsidence and more westerly flow aloft this afternoon. Expect dry and slightly warmer temperatures this afternoon with downsloping westerly flow.
Temperatures remained near freezing or slightly below over parts of southeast New Mexico and southwest Texas with areas of fog and drizzle. Upper low moving across southern Arizona this afternoon will approach the region this evening before lifting northeast toward the Panhandle of Texas late tonight. Though any freezing or frozen precipitation amounts are expected to be light across the Permian Basin, a Winter Weather Advisory will also be in effect for this area due to the potential impact of light ice accumulations on travel.
Stratus engulfs much of the southern half of the CWA with expected breaks in the clouds to points north with ridging extending out of Colorado and northwest Kansas. High temperatures this afternoon for this area will able to push into the low 40s where as points south will remain in the 30s with Elkhart seeing the lowest in the mid 30s under the heavier stratus near the surface. Any lingering snow showers will push east of the CWA into central Kansas into the afternoon hours as a strong arctic cold front pushes in from the north at this time bringing in strong north winds and colder temperatures.
352 PM EST Tue Feb 11 2020 Brief lull in precipitation is expected under high pressure through the first half of Wednesday.
Light, isolated showers will move into Western Washington later today, bringing light drizzle to portions of the lowlands and light snow accumulation in the passes later this afternoon. A ridge will bring drier weather on Wednesday.
Current temperatures this morning are already near 80 degrees, which is a 3 to 4 degrees warmer than this time yesterday. Dew points are in the lower 70s and winds are light from the southeast around 10 mph. In addition, the higher resolution models are indicating that showers could develop in the southeast flow and move across the Upper Keys this afternoon and have raised PoPs to 10 percent. An approaching cold front towards the end of the week will bring slightly higher chances of showers. Temperatures through the short term will be above normal with daytime highs averaging about 5 to 7 degrees warmer for this time of the year.
Slight ridging aloft holds over the eastern US today with a deep trough over the southwest US.
MA Chattanooga Airport, TN 63 46 66 51 57 / 90 30 50 90 60 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 55 43 63 51 57 / 100 40 40 100 80 Oak Ridge, TN 55 42 63 50 56 / 90 40 50 100 70 Tri Cities Airport, TN 53 41 58 50 56 / 100 30 30 90 90 NC.
201 PM CST Tue Feb 11 2020 Light rain will begin to overspread from southwest to northeast tonight as a warm front pushes northward. Another round of heavy rain with the potential for strong to severe thunderstorms as a cold front moves through the Tennessee Valley in the afternoon to evening hours. Some lingering light to moderate showers on Wednesday morning as the aformentioned warm front lifts north into Tennessee. As a low pressure system lifts northward across MS and TN, pressure gradient winds will be of concern tomorrow afternoon. The main severe and flooding threat is as the cold front pushes through the area starting around 00z in western Alabama and exiting the area after 06z.
Otherwise, expect light and variable winds this afternoon to become southerly this evening, before a cold front begins pushing south Wednesday, leading to northerly winds at at least DHT/GUY before the end of the period.
Mostly LIFR/IFR through the period as a cold front has stalled just off the coast.
Models indicated the trough will shift eastward along the northern Mexican border tonight causing snow showers over the southern San Juans and adjacent foothills to diminish late tonight with little additional accumulation.
This afternoon will be another pleasant day following the warmer than average weekend.
1131 AM EST Tue Feb 11 2020 Light rain south and east of Pittsburgh will taper off this morning as high pressure moves in from the west.
256 PM EST Tue Feb 11 2020 The active pattern will continue through the week, with low pressure passing to the south early this evening, which will bring a round of rain or snow showers.
Also will have some drier air in the lower levels working its way into western Kansas early Tuesday morning as an area of high pressure builds in from the northwest. This afternoon across southwest Kansas it will be cloudy with temperatures climbing mainly into the low to mid 30s. South central Kansas will have a chance for some measurable snowfall late tonight into early Wednesday as an upper level trough, located over New Mexico at 06z Tuesday, weakens as it moves into central Oklahoma and south central Kansas Wednesday morning. Any lingering precipitation across south central Kansas Wednesday afternoon will taper off as an upper level trough crosses the Central Plains. As this upper level wave passes a reinforcement of cooler air will surge south as gusty north winds develop late day Wednesday.
The cooler air will move into the region overnight, especially across the northern areas.
This is still producing pockets of sleet and snow, but this signal has been weakening in recent radar scans most likely due to temps warming well above freezing at the surface despite low level (925mb and 850mb) temps below freezing and a transition to more stratiform precipitation as opposed to being more convective in nature.
235 PM EST Tue Feb 11 2020 A deepening trough axis over the desert southwest is beginning to break down the zonal flow dominating the eastern CONUS. This trough axis will gradually erode the upper-level ridge of high pressure situated over the Caribbean, breaking the hot and humid pattern we find ourselves in.
Focus then turns to an incoming Arctic front and interaction with southern stream low pressure Wednesday/Wednesday night.
With much drier air and widespread subsidence building into the region behind last night's trough axis, the current forecast on track with dry conditions through the afternoon and tonight. This trough will bring low level moisture and upslope, northwesterly flow to the mountains.
This is thanks to subfreezing temperatures just above the surface at roughly 1500 to 2000 feet. This is still producing pockets of sleet and snow, but this signal has been weakening in recent radar scans most likely due to temps warming well above freezing at the surface despite low level (925mb and 850mb) temps below freezing and a transition to more stratiform precipitation as opposed to being more convective in nature.
408 PM CST Tue Feb 11 2020 The cold front that has remained entrenched across the area through the day presently lies from between Opelousas and Lafayette west to near Lake Charles and Beaumont.
255 PM PST Tue Feb 11 2020 A strong ridge of high pressure is building over the Pacific Northwest. The ridge will provide dry and warming weather this week. A ridge of high pressure continues to build over the Eastern Pacific after the passage of a disturbance through California. Now, as the disturbance exits into the Desert Southwest, the ridge pattern will becomes more dominate over the West Coast. Yet, the position of the ridge axis well offshore will allow for a continuation of cooler air from the north to filter across the district. The dry and cooler air will therefore allow for cold overnight lows during the next few days. By the end of the week, models do attempt to retrograde the ridge pattern as a weak disturbance rides over the ridge and drops into California.
The ops models along with hi-res models show that there should be some light snowfall from upper level lift with the upper level low pressure trough axis moving through early Wednesday.
This is a result of continued weak offshore flow and high pressure building into the region from the eastern Pacific. Daytime temperatures on Wednesday afternoon will cool a good 5-10 deg F as the ridge aloft flattens and offshore flow diminishes.
/issued 408 PM CST Tue Feb 11 2020/ The cold front that has remained entrenched across the area through the day presently lies from between Opelousas and Lafayette west to near Lake Charles and Beaumont.
824 PM EST Tue Feb 11 2020 Strong ridging over the western Atlantic is the dominant feature influence sensible weather over the Florida Keys and coastal waters. Centered near Bermuda, the ridge axis is well to our north, crossing over north Florida. The air in the lowest 6 kft has actually dried a little from this mornings sounding.
729 PM EST Tue Feb 11 2020 Mid and upper level ridging across FL and much of the Gulf of Mexico from the Caribbean Sea will slowly ease eastward with warm and generally stable conditions for the next 24 hours or so. Atlantic high pressure reaches across FL to the Gulf through Wed with a relaxed gradient keeping surface winds light. The lower to mid level flow will be southerly to southwesterly and stream in increasing amounts of moisture.
Later tonight from around 03-06Z, low level isentropic ascent will begin to increase along the Red River ahead of the approaching upper trough. It still appears profiles will mainly support rain and snow for the majority of the time through tomorrow, although some solutions suggest the low level cold pocket will remain in place long enough for some sleet to be present west of the I-44 corridor.
Temperatures have remained nearly steady today, with readings generally in the low to mid 40s areawide.
The high pressure will track across southern and central Illinois this evening. A fairly strong pressure gradient on the northern flank of the ridge will continue to allow gusts of of 25 to briefly 30 mph over the next few hours before daytime mixing ends. The high pressure will track across southern and central Illinois this evening. A fairly strong pressure gradient on the northern flank of the ridge will continue to allow gusts of of 25 to briefly 30 mph over the next few hours before daytime mixing ends.
Thus, have cancelled the High Wind Warning. There's a chance of a period of light freezing rain overnight at KINK/KMAF, but with low probability, have kept out of TAF and will adjust pending observations. Temperatures remained near freezing or slightly below over parts of southeast New Mexico and southwest Texas with areas of fog and drizzle. Upper low moving across southern Arizona this afternoon will approach the region this evening before lifting northeast toward the Panhandle of Texas late tonight. Though any freezing or frozen precipitation amounts are expected to be light across the Permian Basin, a Winter Weather Advisory will also be in effect for this area due to the potential impact of light ice accumulations on travel.
A couple of spots are still MVFR but it looks like KBNA/KMQY/KCKV should improve to VFR for several hours overnight as the warm front takes its time moving northward.
May be some shallow freezing fog in low areas late tonight, but not expected to be widespread enough to include in new forecast.
However it will push north as a warm front as Wednesday progresses. Upper low over the southwest U.
An upper low currently over NM will be picked up by a northern stream trough dropping southeast from the northern plains. The low will cross central KY on Wednesday night. However, it looks unlikely that the surface front will make it back north through our area before the low passes, leaving an occluded front to move through our area from the northwest on Wednesday night. The combination of warm air advection/isentropic lift aloft and the support from the advancing upper trough will lead to precip for our area.
704 PM EST Tue Feb 11 2020 A cold front to the west will cross the area tonight, then lift back north as a warm front on Wednesday.
402 PM EST Tue Feb 11 2020 Mean layer ridging continues to move northeast towards the region with the center just off north of Cuba's western tip. Upstream an upper level trough is slowly making progress eastward across northern Mexico and southern Arizona. Low level ridge axis extends westward across the north Atlantic and over the Sunshine State just to our north. This is keeping the low level flow from the east and southeast across the region. In the low levels, we have strato-cu and fair weather cu moving northwest across the island chain. Temperature rose a couple degrees this afternoon, reaching into the low to mid 80s. Dew points have remained steady in the low to mid 70s.
349 PM CST Tue Feb 11 2020 Upper low over southeast Arizona will move northeast and weaken over the next 24-36 hours. The rain may mix with or change to light snow in parts of northeast Oklahoma Wednesday evening before it ends, but with surface temperatures remaining above freezing, little or no impacts are expected.
Light rain and drizzle continues this afternoon across South Texas as the stalled cold front remains just off the coast. As the mid-level disturbance moves east late in the night, it will aid in pushing the cold front fully through, with drier air filtering in behind. Overnight lows in the upper 40s to lower 50s will warm into the low to mid 60s Wednesday.
Conditions will trend cooler and cloudier for the rest of the week beginning on Wednesday.
Yet another system will drop out of Canada this evening, bringing in cooler air aloft.
/Issued 349 PM CST Tue Feb 11 2020/ Upper low over southeast Arizona will move northeast and weaken over the next 24-36 hours. The rain may mix with or change to light snow in parts of northeast Oklahoma Wednesday evening before it ends, but with surface temperatures remaining above freezing, little or no impacts are expected.
Water vapor depicts an upper low over the Arizona/Mexico border with several disturbances in southwesterly flow ahead of this feature leading to some returns on the radar across NM.
448 PM MST Tue Feb 11 2020 Current upper level analysis has broad trof across the northern CONUS with closed low over Arizona. At the surface, weak trof is present across the western Dakotas, with a cold front approaching northern Montana. Breezy westerly boundary layer flow will continue this evening as a strong cold front approaches the area. Snow will diminish across the area Wednesday night as Arctic high pressure settles into the Northern Plains.
250 PM MST Tue Feb 11 2020 Current upper level analysis has broad trof across the northern CONUS with closed low over Arizona. At the surface, weak trof is present across the western Dakotas, with a cold front approaching northern Montana. Breezy westerly boundary layer flow will continue this evening as a strong cold front approaches the area. Snow will diminish across the area Wednesday night as Arctic high pressure settles into the Northern Plains.
705 PM EST Tue Feb 11 2020 The active pattern will continue through the week, with low pressure passing to the south early this evening, which will bring a round of rain or snow showers.
Highs will reach the mid to upper 80s, with slightly cooler temperatures along the immediate coast. High pressure ridging over the western Atlantic continues to ease slowly eastward, with its axis draped across the Florida peninsula.
1019 PM EST Tue Feb 11 2020 A cold front to the west will cross the area tonight, then lift back north as a warm front on Wednesday.
1045 PM EST Tue Feb 11 2020 The active pattern will continue through the week, with low pressure passing to the south early this evening, which will bring a round of rain or snow showers.
As thermal trough approaches late tonight, dendritic zone saturates and yields greater chances for at least a band of moderate snow across northern Oklahoma.
1105 PM CST Tue Feb 11 2020 06Z TAF Cycle MVFR to IFR conditions in low clouds, snow and freezing fog at the Amarillo TAF site will become VFR after 12Z to 15Z Wednesday.
A warm front will lift northwards across the terminals later today with a few showers possible. MA Chattanooga Airport, TN 65 52 55 27 43 / 70 100 40 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 63 52 55 26 39 / 30 100 50 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 61 51 54 24 38 / 60 100 40 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 57 51 54 26 35 / 20 100 90 10 0 TN.
The approach/passage of the next cold front tomorrow afternoon (still progged for a 17Z - 22Z timeframe from north to south) could produce some isolated TSRAs.
Offshore flow persisted longer than anticipated today and the upper ridge centered offshore strengthened over California. Although locally breezy offshore winds continue in the higher hills this evening, offshore flow has weakened considerably since yesterday and models indicate continued weakening of offshore flow going into Wednesday. In addition, the upper ridge centered off the West Coast is forecast to retrograde slightly by tomorrow. Most cooling is likely to occur tomorrow when high temperatures are forecast to be about 10 degrees cooler than today.
322 AM EST Wed Feb 12 2020 Stalled front will lift as a warm front today.
Snow will diminish across the area Wednesday night as Arctic high pressure settles into the Northern Plains.
250 AM EST Wed Feb 12 2020 Stalled front will lift as a warm front Wednesday.
While KCSV remains LIFR this evening, KBNA/KCKV/KMQY will remain VFR for a few more hours as we wait for the warm front to lift northward.
At KMSY, a wind shift to the west is expected by 10z as the convective band and associated cold front pushes to the east.
1258 AM EST Wed Feb 12 2020 Stalled front will lift as a warm front Wednesday.
Some freezing fog possible by early AM over KCNM/KHOB with vis below 1SM by morning and temps into the upper 20's. Patchy freezing fog possible over KMAF between 12-15z, but not confident to add to TAF. Temperatures remained near freezing or slightly below over parts of southeast New Mexico and southwest Texas with areas of fog and drizzle. Upper low moving across southern Arizona this afternoon will approach the region this evening before lifting northeast toward the Panhandle of Texas late tonight. Though any freezing or frozen precipitation amounts are expected to be light across the Permian Basin, a Winter Weather Advisory will also be in effect for this area due to the potential impact of light ice accumulations on travel.
Surface winds will be shifting to the SE as the previous cold front returns as a warm front. The next stronger cold front is expected to move off the Upper TX coast tomorrow between 17Z and 22Z (from the north to south). Wrap around clouds are possible late to- morrow night with the passage of the main upper low to the E.
north winds of 25 to 35 mph with gusts around 45 mph will be common across the Tri-State area this afternoon behind a cold frontal passage. High temperatures will range from the mid 30s to low 40s in far eastern Colorado to the low to mid 40s elsewhere across the area. At this time high temperatures in the arctic airmass look to range from the low to mid 20s from McCook to Colby and Oakley east with mid 30s in far eastern Colorado.
This northwest flow continues to produce light snow over the Elkheads and Park Range through Thursday morning before a ridge of high pressure slides over the region by Thursday afternoon. Overall, anticipate 2 to 5 inches of snow at the higher peaks at best with weak dynamics in place.
As the upper trough moves across the area today, winds at the surface and aloft will become westerly, with drier air filtering in and cloud cover decreasing by this afternoon. Temperatures will be warmer today, with afternoon highs ranging from the lower 50s across the Big Country, to around 60 along the Interstate 10 corridor. A surface cold front will move south across the area late tonight, with cool temperatures continuing for Thursday. Expect mostly clear skies for the overnight period, with lows ranging from the upper 20s across the Big Country, to the lower 30s elsewhere.
Rain with isolated thunderstorms underway across South Central Texas and the Hill Country due to strong upward forcing ahead of upper level trough over New Mexico into Chihuahua. As the rain shield moves off to the east, there is a possibility of a few showers over the Hill Country around midday as the trough moves overhead. Otherwise, clouds will also move off to the east allowing for a much warmer day than the last couple due to downsloping winds. Another upper level trough moving over the Rockies and out into the Plains sends another surge of cold advection later tonight into Thursday. Continued below normal temperatures are expected, although sunshine will allow for warmer highs than the last couple of days.
353 AM CST Wed Feb 12 2020 A cold front will finally move slowly through the area tonight into Thursday morning. Much colder and drier after the cold front moves through Thursday and will likely continue into the weekend but the clouds will be stubborn to move out at least for Thursday.
Cooler air filtering in behind the exiting system and easing winds overnight will drop overnight lows early tomorrow morning into the 20s.
Meanwhile, the cold front will begin pushing in from the west by the early afternoon hours. Highs will range from the lower 40s across Northeast Arkansas to the upper 60s/lower 70s across Northeast Mississippi.
A weak ridge of high pressure moves over the Northern Rockies on Thursday, giving the area a respite in precipitation.
Today Through Thursday Night An upper trough is over the desert southwest and will move into north Texas today as southwest flow continues over Arkansas. This trough will move through the Plains tonight and Thursday. Ridging builds over the Rockies and Plains Thursday night. Rain continues to stream north over Arkansas, riding over a warm front that is across Louisiana. A cold front will approach the state tonight and bring colder air into the region. Highs today will be in the lower 40s to mid 50s and then in then in the lower 30s to upper 40s Thursday.
Cooler and more humid conditions will occur across the region through the weekend. The marine layer was deepening along the eastern periphery of the high, and north-northwest low- level winds were aiding in advecting the marine layer airmass onshore across coastal NWRN CA.
The main changes include a wider strong wind field that merited a westward expansion of the wind chill headlines, and a shift in the higher QPF further west. Leaned toward the higher wind guidance for the morning given the strength of the cold air advection and the tight pressure gradient.