Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Chance of precip will increase from the west overnight tonight, with the best chance tomorrow morning along mid level baroclinicity and behind a surface cold front. Believe surface temps tomorrow morning will be warm enough to avoid a freezing rain risk, but something to think to watch as temps fall tonight. Otherwise expect a mix of rain and snow showers with little or no wet snow accumulation for the lower elevations, and a few inches over the mountains. Brief gusts to 60 mph possible through the overnight period as a low pressure system moves in from the west. Cold front moves through the area tomorrow morning which will knock temperatures down 5 to 10 degrees during the day.
421 PM MST Mon Nov 13 2017 Water vapor shows upper ridge over the Rockies/Plains with very dry air over the Northern Plains. Upper trof is moving into the Pac NW. Temps have warmed into the lower 60s many areas of our cwfa given the dry air and southwest boundary layer flow.
A weak frontal boundary moved through the region this afternoon and a somewhat drier and cooler airmass is arriving. The latest forecast suggests mid 40s across our northern zones to the lower 50s in the south.
Brief gusts to 60 mph possible through the overnight period as a low pressure system moves in from the west. Cold front moves through the area tomorrow morning which will knock temperatures down 5 to 10 degrees during the day.
The breezy wind flow combined with the increasing cloud cover will support a mild night across the forecast area with temperatures in the lower to mid 60s inland areas, and mid to upper 60s along the coast.
The low clouds across much of NW and west-central MN have been moving northward over the past several hours. Uncertainty abounds in the exact trends, but given warmer and more moist airmass moving in, some snow melt conditions should favor fog formation over much of eastern ND.
909 PM EST Mon Nov 13 2017 Low pressure tracking off the Mid-Atlantic coast will pass well south of the area tonight.
The showers will decrease Tuesday morning and taper off Tuesday afternoon as a weak upper ridge moves into the area.
407 PM CST Mon Nov 13 2017 A rich plume of moisture continues to stream over the area around the northern periphery of an upper level ridge over the Gulf of California.
705 PM EST Mon Nov 13 2017 Low pressure exits northeast of the area tonight. High pressure builds on Tuesday.
621 PM EST Mon Nov 13 2017 Low pressure tracking off the Mid-Atlantic coast will pass well south of the area tonight.
838 PM MST Mon Nov 13 2017 Upper ridge cresting over northern Plains this evening with a thick band of cirrus moving over forecast area ahead of upper trof along Pacific coast. Lee trof along front range of Rockies-Big Horn Mtns has southerly winds ahead of it. Trof will cross forecast area after midnight, with cool front entering northwest SD early Tuesday morning.
709 PM EST Mon Nov 13 2017 High pressure over the Great Lakes will build east tonight and Tuesday bringing drier air and light winds.
For 06Z Aviation discussion below Forecast concern in the near term remains timing of stratus development/advection over the region tonight and threat of freezing drizzle into parts of west central WI. BUFKIT cross sections showing cloud deck should be thick enough to generate mist/drizzle, Continued the lower end chance PoPs for this over the eastern half of the area into Tuesday. Surface temperatures may be around freezing/slightly below over a portion of west central WI at least for part of the night. Ahead of the front, we should maintain the lower clouds through most of the day Tuesday as the incoming upper trough approaches.
635 PM EST Mon Nov 13 2017 Drying has occurred in the wake of the cold front.
It should be a quiet night with high pressure building in. Cooler air will be filtering into the region tonight and lows are expected to fall into the 30s across much of the area. There continues to be some low level moisture in place and may see patchy fog/freezing fog develop towards sunrise. Chattanooga Airport, TN 38 59 40 62 / 0 0 0 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 35 56 37 61 / 0 0 0 10 Oak Ridge, TN 36 57 38 60 / 0 0 0 20 Tri Cities Airport, TN 32 53 32 59 / 0 0 0 10.
518 PM EST Mon Nov 13 2017 Drying has occurred in the wake of the cold front.
For 00z Aviation discussion below Forecast concern in the near term remains timing of stratus development/advection over the region tonight and threat of freezing drizzle into parts of west central WI. BUFKIT cross sections showing cloud deck should be thick enough to generate mist/drizzle, Continued the lower end chance PoPs for this over the eastern half of the area into Tuesday. Surface temperatures may be around freezing/slightly below over a portion of west central WI at least for part of the night. Ahead of the front, we should maintain the lower clouds through most of the day Tuesday as the incoming upper trough approaches.
Breezy conditions are expected to develop in the wind corridors during the overnight hrs as weak pressure falls spread across the high plains of eastern MT and northeast WY. Tuesday will be another very warm day with H7 temperatures between +2 and +4 deg C across much of the CWA, except far northwest where a cold front will make an earlier arrival.
The cloud cover will reduce the chances for fog overnight as the clouds keep temperatures warmer in most areas. Forrester Previous short term: High surface pressure and an upper level ridge brought warmer than normal temperatures to many northeast Montana locations today. Main forecast challenge in the short term period focuses on the chances for a return to some freezing fog tonight. Over the last two nights, widespread dense freezing fog has been a problem, and the last holdouts only left today around noon up near the Canadian border along local creek beds. Felt it was okay to include patchy fog over the lower river valley locations through the overnight and morning hours.
A weak upper level trough will graze northern Utah Tuesday, bringing the threat of precipitation to far northern Utah late tonight through Tuesday.
543 PM CST Mon Nov 13 2017 A broad area of high pressure positioned off to the northeast is providing southerly flow over most of the CWA today. The ridge axis from the high pressure is also extending into the region. This is trapping the low level moisture over the region. Mid level flow is out of the southwest which is over running the low level moisture.
738 PM EST Mon Nov 13 2017 High pressure will be North/Northwest of the region Tonight.
The higher based MVFR cigs Tuesday morning across NE TX/SW AR should eventually lift/become VFR by midday/early afternoon, giving way to VFR conditions areawide even as the extensive cu field spreads back NE into Scntrl/Cntrl AR. /issued 407 PM CST Mon Nov 13 2017/ A rich plume of moisture continues to stream over the area around the northern periphery of an upper level ridge over the Gulf of California.
This will usher in a cold front into Kansas, scouring out the low level moisture and persistent stratus cloud cover.
1009 PM EST Mon Nov 13 2017 Drying has occurred in the wake of the cold front.
Surface trof currently over eastern New Mexico will move eastward into the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles on Tuesday, taking on dryline characteristics by noon.
A stronger lee trough and gusty winds to 23 KTS expected by mid to late morning, mainly at KABI and KSJT. Wind speeds will increase and become gusty by late morning and during the afternoon, as surface pressure gradient increases with lee trough development to the west. Temperatures will be warmer on Tuesday area wide, with highs expected to be in the lower to mid 70s.
937 PM EST Mon Nov 13 2017 Cool high pressure over the Great Lakes will build east tonight and Tuesday, however, clouds will persist for most of our region.
Lows will range from the mid 60s interior to the lower 70s along the Treasure Coast.
As of 20Z Monday afternoon, mid-level ridging continues to overspread the central Plains. Upstream of the ridge, a mid- level trough was entering the Pacific northwest. Surface ridging across the midwest continues its slow movement to the east.
This activity should fade in the afternoon and much of the evening before a more widespread and substantial rainfall event takes place ahead of a cold front late Tuesday night. Overnight min temps tonight will range from near freezing in parts of southwest IL to the low-mid 40s in MO underneath thicker cloud cover and a more southerly low level flow. Only modest increases in temps into the low 50s on Tuesday with most locations continuing under mostly cloudy skies. TES High pressure at the surface quickly moves off to the east overnight. Clouds should temper temperatures a bit for tomorrow, but will still be warmer than today for most areas.
539 PM CST Mon Nov 13 2017 High pressure at the surface quickly moves off to the east overnight. Clouds should temper temperatures a bit for tomorrow, but will still be warmer than today for most areas.
High pressure settling into the upper OH Valley will continue to bring dry and chilly conditions to the region tonight and Tuesday. A southeastward moving cold front will move into western Missouri Tuesday night. Warm advection clouds and showers may develop as far southeast as the lower Ohio Valley by Wed morning.
A weak upper level trough will graze northern Utah Tuesday, bringing the threat of precipitation to far northern Utah.
718 AM EST Tue Feb 20 2018 Light freezing drizzle continues early this morning, occasionally mixing with snow mainly over the W. Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb trough in the western U. and a strong 500 mb ridge over the sern U. The trough in the western U. In the extended, GFS and ECMWF show a 500 mb trough over the western U. 12z Fri extending up into the Canadian Prairies and a 500 mb ridge across the sern U. The trough ejects into the southern Rockies 12z Sat and into the Great Lakes Sat night. More troughing moves into the area 12z Mon into Mon night.
As the cool air mass behind the cold front that moved through last night continues to settle over the area, showers will diminish this morning and skies will clear from the west through the day. High temperatures will top out 13 to 20 degrees cooler than average today.
1005 AM EST Tue Feb 20 2018 RAP40 analysis shows a strong high pres ridge over the W Atlc/Deep South dominating the lcl WX pattern. Anticyclonic flow around the base of the ridge generating a brisk E/SE flow acrs central FL, as confirmed by the lcl wind profilers. Poor boating conditions as a high pres ridge extending from Bermuda into the Deep South maintains a moderate to fresh E/SE breeze over the lcl Atlc waters.
Expect the lowest layer, around 1000 feet, so continue fluctuating btwn SCT and BKN through midmorning before lifting. /issued 359 AM CST Tue Feb 20 2018/ SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday): The highly amplified midlevel pattern remains in place across the US through the next 36 hours, with a trough along the Rockies and ridging centered just off Florida. This is inducing the next area of low pressure dropping into the Texas Panhandle. The next cold front will slowly drop southward across Texas today, bringing an increasing chance for showers and thunderstorms tonight into tomorrow morning.
For this update, will not make changes to the high temps outside of a trend tweak here and there. We should still at least tie the high temp records of 79 in both Muscle Shoals and Huntsville. The short range models continue to indicate a weak upper impulse rotating northward from the Gulf of Mexico around the western portion of the anti-cyclone.
TFJ Clouds over eastern Montana this morning keeping temperatures a little warmer than expected, limiting the wind chill concerns outside of the far western zones. Canadian high pressure and upper trof will keep cold air over the region through most of the week, although some modification is expected.
High pressure will continue to ridge west from the Atlantic Ocean with southeast winds at around 15 knots or less across the waters.
Another Cold Front and Possible Rain. As another cold front approaches and moves into West Central Texas, beginning this afternoon, rain chances will continue for much of West Central Texas today and tonight.
326 AM MST Tue Feb 20 2018 Current surface analysis shows low pressure now well south and east of the region, with arctic high pressure over MT. Upper level analysis shows trough axis now over eastern MT and WY, weakening and speeding up as it moves into the Plains. The forecast looks relatively quiet for the rest of the week, though it will remain bitter cold through midweek as arctic high pressure slowly passes over and eventually east of the area.
508 AM CST Tue Feb 20 2018 Our cold front continues to surge southward for the start of the 12Z TAF cycle. A cold front draped across the northern Panhandles is bringing temperatures in the upper teens to lower 20s in the northern Panhandles, to the 50s to near 60 in the southern Panhandles. Lee side troughing, still active in New Mexico this morning, may help keep southwesterly winds going across the southwestern Panhandles, which could slow forward progress of the arctic front.
A trough of low pressure begins to dig over the Pacific Northwest this afternoon. The base of the trough swings through Oregon into central Idaho tonight into Wednesday.
405 AM CST Tue Feb 20 2018 An upper level ridge is currently centered north of the Bahamas and will remain there through most of this week. The west of this high pressure extends into the western Gulf of Mexico. This extent of coverage will change based upon intrusion of an upper trough to the north. The main trough axis is still west of the Rockie Mountains.
1100 AM EST Tue Feb 20 2018 RAP40 analysis shows a strong high pres ridge over the W Atlc/Deep South dominating the lcl WX pattern. Anticyclonic flow around the base of the ridge generating a brisk E/SE flow acrs central FL, as confirmed by the lcl wind profilers. Poor boating conditions as a high pres ridge extending from Bermuda into the Deep South maintains a moderate to fresh E/SE breeze over the lcl Atlc waters.
Therefore, some streamer type showers may develop below the cap with the low level jet through the day. With daytime heating and approach of an upper level disturbance, may see more shower activity with a few thunderstorms over Southeast Texas where pops will be the highest this afternoon. A deep ridge is centered near the Bahamas this morning, while a trough covers the wester half to two thirds of the country. Our region remains between these systems, however the trough is gradually eroding the western edge of the ridge. Today the ridge will shift a bit more east while the trough begins to provide lift. Wednesday a cold front will enter the lakes region and stall, perhaps just north of the forecast area.
A deep trough is located over the western US leading to record cold temperatures in the west and record warm temperatures in the east. The NAM does the best of capturing this increased moisture in the low to mid levels.
A strong cold front will move through the area tonight, resulting in gusty northeast winds. Another Cold Front and Possible Rain. As another cold front approaches and moves into West Central Texas, beginning this afternoon, rain chances will continue for much of West Central Texas today and tonight.
A deep ridge is centered near the Bahamas this morning, while a trough covers the wester half to two thirds of the country. Our region remains between these systems, however the trough is gradually eroding the western edge of the ridge. Today the ridge will shift a bit more east while the trough begins to provide lift. Wednesday a cold front will enter the lakes region and stall, perhaps just north of the forecast area.
Rapid refresh models continue to be agressive with stronger convection developing this morning, but mainly over the higher terrain. An upper level trough will remain over the Southwestern States. A stronger impulse approaches overnight while a cold front begins to move into our Central Texas counties. Showers and thunderstorms will blossom overnight into Wednesday morning due to the lower level focusing of the front, right entrance region of the upper level jet, and moderate low level jet into and over the front.
An upper level trough will remain over the Southwestern States. A stronger impulse approaches overnight while a cold front begins to move into our Central Texas counties. Showers and thunderstorms will blossom overnight into Wednesday morning due to the lower level focusing of the front, right entrance region of the upper level jet, and moderate low level jet into and over the front.
While not as cold as previous nights due to increasing cloud cover, Wednesday morning lows could be near or below freezing throughout much of the Central Valley resulting in areas of frost.
A cold front will slowly sag to the southwest through the afternoon which none of the current computer model runs show as far south as it currently is. INCREASING THREAT FOR LIGHT ICY ACCUMULATIONS ON WEDNESDAY AND Early morning satellite showed the west edge of subtropical cirrus was making steady progress eastward across the region ahead of broad longwave troughing over the western third of the CONUS. Despite an overall drying trend aloft behind the subtropical moisture axis, the low levels will become increasingly moist and eventually saturated tonight following a sharp cold front. Stout thermal ridging ahead of the front will probably secure a 30+ degree temp contrast by late day from SW to NE across our CWA.
421 AM MST Tue Feb 20 2018 Current surface analysis shows low pressure now well south and east of the region, with arctic high pressure over MT. Upper level analysis shows trough axis now over eastern MT and WY, weakening and speeding up as it moves into the Plains. The forecast looks relatively quiet for the rest of the week, though it will remain bitter cold through midweek as arctic high pressure slowly passes over and eventually east of the area.
Short Term Update - Moderate to fresh east to southeast winds will persist today due to the strong ridge to our north. The healthy flow will help to keep temperatures from rising much further, topping out in the lower 80s.
Strong high pressure northeast of the area will maintain a light onshore flow today. High pressure northeast of the region will remain firmly in control.
645 AM EST Tue Feb 20 2018 Aviation A area of low pressure will track slowly through the Great Lakes Region through tonight.
921 AM CST Tue Feb 20 2018 Radar returns continue to dissipate as high pressure builds east across the local area. Slow moving, longwave upper level trough across the western US and associated jet streaks moving across the Northern Plains in southwest flow will slowly shift toward the Great Lakes region. Models are in decent agreement with maintaining trough over the western US through the remainder of the work, placing the Northern Plains in southwest flow aloft.
325 AM MST Tue Feb 20 2018 Clouds over eastern Montana this morning keeping temperatures a little warmer than expected, limiting the wind chill concerns outside of the far western zones. Canadian high pressure and upper trof will keep cold air over the region through most of the week, although some modification is expected.
For most of the area, isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms should spread inland from the coast as the low-level inversion breaks. /ISSUED 609 AM CDT Sun Aug 6 2017/ Warmer across the area this morning with higher dewpoints. Drier air in the model soundings showing up aloft although in the lowest levels dewpoints are higher. Cold front stalls over NTx and may see some storms move off the boundary and move southeastward before waning.
BMickelson Previous short term discussion: An upper level trough over the region will continue to provide cooler than average temperatures today along with isolated to widely scattered showers, and perhaps a thunderstorm. Much of the CWA can expect to see daytime highs reaching the low 80s, still a few degrees below seasonal averages. Northwest flow aloft will continue to prevail most of the time through the week with an upper ridge on the Pacific Coast and an upper trough/low to the east.
1029 AM EDT Sun Aug 6 2017 Corrected mention of Small Craft Exercise Caution in Hawk Channel A mean layered ridge centered just southwest of Bermuda stretches west into the Gulf of Mexico. We advertise 30% rain chances for the remainder of the afternoon, which appears appropriate given the coverage to the southeast of the Lower Keys.
JLH 12Z TAFs A warm front will return across the area today with a trailing cold front arriving tonight.
Weak s/w trough approaching the region should allow for isolated to scattered showers to develop through the morning and possibly afternoon.
845 AM EDT Sun Aug 6 2017 Crossing low pressure will return rain to the region tonight and Monday.
800 AM PDT Sun Aug 6 2017 A weak trough off the California Coast will give way to building high pressure over northwest Mexico this week.
1137 AM EDT Sun Aug 6 2017 Crossing low pressure will return rain to the region tonight and Monday.
1021 AM EDT Sun Aug 6 2017 Surface analysis indicates a surface warm front to our south across northern portions of Alabama and Georgia. Chattanooga Airport, TN 87 73 81 70 / 40 70 80 60 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 86 70 79 67 / 30 70 80 60 Oak Ridge, TN 85 70 79 68 / 30 70 80 60 Tri Cities Airport, TN 85 67 77 65 / 10 70 80 60.
Like yesterday, rainfall amounts from these afternoon showers will be on the lower end. Upper ridge over northern Saskatchewan with northerly flow aloft and at the sfc into E ND/NW MN today and with it a bit more stable airmass.
A broken band of convection was along the 850 mb warm front over sw parts of IL/KY south of I-64 and lifting ne. Monday looks a bit warmer in the forecast without the showers and thunderstorms, but the guidance is slow to clear the clouds out and the winds have a north/northeasterly component. but ridging over the west coast of the country keeps weak northwesterly flow over the Plains and the Rockies.
609 AM CDT Sun Aug 6 2017 Warmer across the area this morning with higher dewpoints. Drier air in the model soundings showing up aloft although in the lowest levels dewpoints are higher. Cold front stalls over NTx and may see some storms move off the boundary and move southeastward before waning.
950 AM EDT Sun Aug 6 2017 A quasi-stationary cold front across southern NC will return north was a warm front today.
Showers currently in the higher elevations of SE Oregon are expected to continue thru this afternoon expanding into the Owyhee Mountains. Satellite showing a low pressure system approaching the coast of northern California this morning. Radar is showing a few weak echo in southern Harney and Malheur counties but given the low humidities in that area it likely these cells are producing virga. Upper level ridge over the forecast area today will limit instability to along the Nevada border. The better chance for thunderstorms will be Monday afternoon as the low pressure system reaches the Intermountain West. It does weaken significantly by then so thunderstorms potential will be limited to the higher terrain. This system will do little to improve the smoke and haze across the region as the upper level ridge remains over the Pacific Northwest.
Temps are continuing to trend cooler this morning with most areas running around 4-8 degrees cooler compared to 24 hours ago. Better chance of showers and thunderstorms developing across the higher terrain this afternoon.
The upper level ridge located offshore still dominates the weather pattern producing hot and dry conditions. A low in CA that is undercutting the ridge has drifted north a little and some high clouds have moved into northeast OR.
519 AM MDT Sun Aug 6 2017 Current surface analysis shows low pressure over central KS, with frontal boundary south and west of the region.
1023 AM EDT Sun Aug 6 2017 A mean layered ridge centered just southwest of Bermuda stretches west into the Gulf of Mexico. We advertise 30% rain chances for the remainder of the afternoon, which appears appropriate given the coverage to the southeast of the Lower Keys.