Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
A cold front moving into the region on Thursday will likely bring a wind shift to KGLH between 15Z and 18Z Thursday.
Weak surface ridging will keep winds calm overnight as the nocturnal inversion develops after sunset. This cold front will move east on Thursday with some increasing clouds late in the day. With surface ridging in place limiting moisture return and primary dynamics for synoptic lift displaced to our north, PoPs and QPF will be low, and likely be maximized along the cold front on Thursday night. Rain chances begin to rise Thursday night from west to east across the area as a cold front approaches. Moisture ahead of this system will be quite limited but with a fairly well amplified trough and strong upper jet entrance region to our north, we should have enough coverage for high chance to likely PoPs late Thursday night in northern sections.
1152 AM CDT Wed Oct 14 2020 (Today and tonight) Throughout the day Wednesday, surface pressure gradients will continue to tighten and increase with a upper-level longwave trough moving across the central plains. This will result in strong southerly winds ahead of a cold front approaching the region. The aforementioned cold front will begin moving into northern Oklahoma Wednesday evening, bringing a sharp change of wind direction from the north and cooler temperatures. Dry conditions are expected to continue with the cold front passage, with any precipitation expected to remain east in areas of cooler temperatures and higher saturation. By Thursday morning, the cold front will be through most of western north Texas and most of Oklahoma except for parts of southeastern Oklahoma.
Another Cold Front. As models have been indicating, for many days, the next cold front will arrive tonight. This front will be dry; however, it will bring gusty winds, from the north, along with cooler temperatures.
The unseasonably warm temperatures are set to be knocked back to below normal readings on Thursday as a cold front is set to move through the area tonight into Thursday morning.
325 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2020 A broad upper level trough will remain over the central part of the country through the short term period, but the strongest energy associated with it looks to stay south of the area. At the surface, a fairly tight pressure gradient remains in place over the area between low pressure to the east and high pressure to the northwest. With the high not being right overhead on Thursday, the gradient does not completely relax, so will see winds become breezy, but gusts should be limited to 30 mph or so. Cooler air then remains in place with highs on Thursday in the upper 40s to mid 50s, and lows Thursday night in the mid 20s to lower 30s.
125 PM EDT Wed Oct 14 2020 Dry and seasonably warm weather will persist until passage of a Thursday cold front.
With northwest winds around 5 to 10 mph and dewpoints ranging from the low to mid 20s west to around 30 east the current frost and freeze headlines look good.
A cold front will swing through tonight bringing a chance for some sprinkles or very light rain. The cold front will bring cooler temperatures into the area as highs on Thursday struggle to warm out of the 60s.
Cold front has pushed into NE, followed by a couple pockets of pressure rises.
Under mostly sunny skies, temperatures have warmed into the lower 70s for areas south of I-10 with middle and upper 60s north of I-10 into cntl LA and the Lakes region of SE TX. Overall, however, conditions should remain nice with high temperatures this aftn into the lower to middle 80s. /issued Issued by National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX/ Some patchy ground fog has developed overnight, but this will dissipate by mid-morning giving way to a mostly sunny day with afternoon temperatures climbing into the low to mid 80s. Moist, southerly flow increases on Thursday ahead of a strong cold front dropping down from the northwest.
1224 PM EDT Wed Oct 14 2020 High pressure will build into the region through tonight before sliding offshore on Thursday.
452 PM EDT Wed Oct 14 2020 Dry and warm weather will persist until rain returns with a passage of a Thursday cold front.
Behind the low remains deformation zone light rain/drizzle over portions of the Red River Valley into northwest and west- central MN. Moderate to strong CAA coupled with strong pressure rises upwards of around 2 mb per hour is effectively transferring a belt of 30-45 kt H8 winds just behind the low towards the ground. Thursday night will be another cold one with temps into the low to mid 20s and a light breeze. Upper trough stuck in central Canada just west of the Hudson Bay will persist through the weekend.
The local area remains sandwiched between a flattened mid to upper ridge over the Gulf and a broad trough across the central and eastern portions of the CONUS. Temperatures are running a few degrees cooler this afternoon in comparison to yesterday at this time.
Blowing dust will continue to be an issue through the afternoon and then again along and behind the cold front later tonight tonight. The cold front arriving tonight is currently moving across southern Kansas and should be in the extreme southern Panhandle by midnight and through our CWA before sunrise.
(This evening through Thursday) A cold front will move across the area later this evening and overnight. Cooler air will also move in behind the front leading to highs only reaching the 60s and 70s Thursday afternoon, about 20 degrees cooler than what is expected this afternoon.
As a result expect winds to quickly diminish this evening as the high builds in. As skies clear and high pressure builds in expect lows to drop below freezing across northwest Nebraska by Thursday morning with near freezing conditions elsewhere. The exception will be far southwest Nebraska where the lingering cloud cover will likely keep lows just above the freezing mark. Otherwise northwest low-level flow continues as high pressure drops southward into the southern high plains. A cold night Thursday night with all areas slated to drop to freezing or below, with northwest Nebraska possibly dropping as low as the lower 20s.
329 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2020 At 20Z, a cold front continues to push southeastward through the CWA, and is located near Topeka at this time. A steady decline in temperatures will commence this evening as our summer-like highs in the 80s give way to the cooler airmass behind the front. Lows tonight should drop into the mid 40s in north- central KS and into the low 50s in east-central KS as higher pressure slides into the area.
That old front will better resemble a low amplitude inverted trough by late Thursday.
A stalled weak frontal boundary will linger over north-central Florida tonight as high pressure builds to the northeast.
Relative humidity values have dropped to the lower 20s to upper teens. Lows will fall into the low 50s by tomorrow morning. Fog may be possible again tomorrow morning, but should remain over attributes, and shouldn't be widespread A deepening trough across the Northern Plains will help push a front into the Mid-South tomorrow.
The one factor to watch though is winds behind a second cold front that is expected to move through overnight tonight, winds could be just strong enough for frost to not form. This cooler air will also bring back the potential for frost across the area and maybe even a hard freeze for areas further northwest.
117 PM EDT Wed Oct 14 2020 High pressure will drift offshore tonight into Thursday.
A second cold front is expected to move through the area this evening. This double whammy of cold fronts will result in high temperatures being about 20 degrees cooler than today.
Winds will relax some into the overnight hours although with persistent CAA, will see overnight lows fall to near or a bit below the freezing mark. A cool and somewhat breezy day expected for Thursday as the base of the upper level trough sits overhead. Temperatures will likely be stuck in the lower to mid 50s for most locations with westerly winds gusting between 20 to 30 mph adding a little extra chill to the air. Another vort lobe rotates thru the trough by the evening and overnight hours and may bring some very light precip.
A dry cold front will usher much cooler air into the area today, which will remain in place through Thursday.
A cold front will pass across the area after 14Z, shifting winds to NNW.
254 PM MDT Wed Oct 14 2020 Will cancel the High Wind Warning for most areas where winds were gusting mainly in the 20s and 30s. Unstable NW flow will continue over the area on Thursday, and another cold front will move through the area.
A cold front will move through the area overnight, w/fropa at KMAF/KHOB ~ 09Z, and KFST/KPEQ 14Z. /issued 324 AM CDT Wed Oct 14 2020/ An upper level trough will dig southward over the Upper Midwest today. The upper trough to the north is expected to dig southward and result in a cold front moving into the area early Thursday morning.
A cold front will move into the area Thursday night and could cause some showers over portions of far N GA.
Much warmer temperatures are also expected tonight as a 30kt LLJ develops and brings deeper low level moisture into the area, with lows only dropping into the mid to upper 50s for most locations. Cold front still anticipated to sweep through Middle Tennessee tomorrow, reaching our northwest counties by 14Z or so, the Nashville metro around midday, and be east of our Plateau counties by 00Z. Have sided with the drier consensus due to the limited moisture available, and kept pops on the low side in the slight to chance category.
Concur with deterministic NWP runs which predict an upper level disturbance/trough to move across the Plains/Midwest/Mississippi Valley during the period. In response, expect a cold front to enter the CWA Thursday night.
Low pressure and a cold front are moving east through the Midwest today, helping create windy and warm conditions out ahead of the front, which includes our area. The cold front is currently located across far northeast KS and far northwest MO and will continue moving south and east this afternoon and evening. It will be breezy again as well tomorrow as high pressure slowly moving into the area tightens the pressure gradient.
231 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2020 Dry and seasonably warm conditions will continue into the evening hrs, as high pressure continues to gradually move east into the mid/srn Atlantic Basins. All of this will occur along/ahead of a cold front approaching from the NW, which still looks to sweep thru the area Thu night into early Fri. Ahead of the cold front, afternoon temps on Thu look to climb into the upper 70s/near 80F, before cooler/drier air spreading into the area in the wake of the frontal passage results in afternoon highs Fri more in the lower/mid 60s.
A strong ridge of high pressure will continue to build over California and remain centered just off the coast until the end of this week.
An upper level ridge off the coast of CA will move northwest allowing for an upper level trough to dive southward over the midwest. This opens the door for a nice cold front to rush out of the north into our area tomorrow morning (Between 08Z-15Z, North to South), bringing cooler temps and gusty winds.
1128 AM MDT Wed Oct 14 2020 Active NW flow will persist through most of the week, supporting windy, cooler, and showery weather locally.
This return flow should keep minimum temperatures slightly warmer tonight and boost dew points by a few degrees. For the afternoon, attention turns to an approaching cold front. Anomalously strong high pressure dropping into the Mid-South will drive strong pressure rises behind the front, and current estimates show the front arriving in the Delta region by early to mid-afternoon. Gusty winds up to 25 mph or so, and light rain may begin to develop in the Delta by late afternoon as the lower levels cool and saturate. /NF/ Tomorrow night through Wednesday: The forecast period starts off tomorrow night with an amplified longwave trough swinging through the Mississippi Valley and into New England. This will drive a strong cold front and subsequent modified continental polar airmass into the area.
Temperatures on Thursday look to be similar to perhaps slightly warmer than today with highs in the 40s to perhaps low 50s.
1228 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2020 At 08Z a cold front has moved through the Black Hills region and was just north of Sheridan and Cherry County. A fast moving short wave trough will cross the Northern and Central Plains, driving a strong cold front quickly southeast through the area this morning. The initial cold front will bring a cooldown today, and trended highs cooler to the upper 50s northwest Sandhills, to near 75 in Chase, Hayes and Frontier County. A secondary cold front will move through tonight, bringing 850MB temperatures to as low as 1C to -3C by daybreak. Most areas will fall below freezing tonight, coldest in the upper 20s most of western and northwest Sandhills. Will be much cooler in the upper 40s to lower 50s, except mid 50s far southwest.
Cliff Previous Discussion: Low pressure will begin to shift away with showers gradually becoming more confined to southern portions of the CWA by this afternoon. A broad upper trough centered over the north central region of the U.
As of 3 PM, temperatures have climbed into the lower 80s acrs the area. Aloft, broad cyclonic flow is noted over the northern plains with the pattern trending more zonal toward the lower MS Valley and SE US. 24 The quiet weather pattern will continue into Thursday, although temperatures tonight are expected to be about 5 to 10 degrees warmer than last night as southerly winds bring an increase in low level moisture acrs the area.
At the surface, a large low pressure system will spin its way from the Upper Midwest through the Great Lakes and into northern Quebec by the end of the short term. Two cold fronts associated with the low pressure system will gradually merge and before being pulled through the Ohio Valley and as far as the east coast by the end of the period. But clouds will be on the increase through the day Thursday as a cold front bears down on the area.
1124 AM EDT Wed Oct 14 2020 High pressure will build into the region through tonight.
As the associated cold front moves through the region Thursday afternoon and night. Notably cooler air will follow the front for the remainder of the week. Associated cold front crosses region on Thursday.
252 PM EDT Wed Oct 14 2020 High pressure moves eastward tonight, though pleasant weather continues through Thursday. Strong cold front crosses Thursday night, with much colder conditions expected into the weekend. Surface level high pressure will maintain pleasant, mostly clear conditions across the area for the remainder of the day. High pressure shifts to the east overnight and a transition to southwest flow occurs ahead of an approaching cold front. During the day Thursday, the cold front will draw nearer to the area as its parent low moves northeast from the Great Lakes region into Canada. Highs should reach mid to upper 70s for most of the lowlands and 60s to 70s in the mountains. However, cloud cover could temper the highs by a degree or two.
Dry and seasonably warm conditions will continue into the evening hrs, as high pressure continues to gradually move east into the mid/srn Atlantic Basins. All of this will occur along/ahead of a cold front approaching from the NW, which still looks to sweep thru the area Thu night into early Fri. Ahead of the cold front, afternoon temps on Thu look to climb into the upper 70s/near 80F, before cooler/drier air spreading into the area in the wake of the frontal passage results in afternoon highs Fri more in the lower/mid 60s.
Have allowed the high wind warning to expire. Cold front has pushed into NE, followed by a couple pockets of pressure rises.
At 20Z, a cold front continues to push southeastward through the CWA, and is located near Topeka at this time. A steady decline in temperatures will commence this evening as our summer-like highs in the 80s give way to the cooler airmass behind the front. Lows tonight should drop into the mid 40s in north- central KS and into the low 50s in east-central KS as higher pressure slides into the area.
653 PM EDT Wed Oct 14 2020 High pressure will drift offshore tonight into Thursday.
Strong winds associated with low pressure moving through MN and WI were sustained at 20 to 30 mph over central Iowa this afternoon. A leading weak cold front, largely a trough was through most of the forecast area, while a secondary stronger push of wind and cooler air was moving southeast across MN and se SD this afternoon. After a breezy and cool Thursday with temperatures only recovering into the 50s, Thursday night will likely see widespread frost with temperatures dropping into the low 30s and have mentioned frost only over the south and southeast, where there may be remaining warm season vulnerable vegetation.
After a cooldown to near average for many areas Thursday behind a dry, backdoor cold front, high temperatures will rise to well above average for the weekend across northeast CA and western NV. Low temperatures will remain around average for mid-October with sub- freezing readings (slightly warmer close to Lake Tahoe) for Sierra valleys and mainly lower 30s to lower 40s for Basin valleys. If you are trying to squeeze more production out of your garden in the lower valleys, you may have to be ever vigilant from here on out this fall as longer nights push many areas well below 40 each night.
VFR w/light WSW winds will prevail overnight, however a cold front is progged to arrive early tomorrow morning. An upper level ridge off the coast of CA will move northwest allowing for an upper level trough to dive southward over the midwest. This opens the door for a nice cold front to rush out of the north into our area tomorrow morning (Between 08Z-15Z, North to South), bringing cooler temps and gusty winds.
633 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2020 Southeast winds around 5 knots overnight to become northeast at 10 to 15 knots and gusty after 15/18Z as a cold front moves across the region.
The high pressure system over the coastal Carolinas will drift offshore into the western Atlantic tomorrow, allowing a weak front to drop into FL.
A broad upper level trough will remain over the central part of the country through the short term period, but the strongest energy associated with it looks to stay south of the area. At the surface, a fairly tight pressure gradient remains in place over the area between low pressure to the east and high pressure to the northwest. With the high not being right overhead on Thursday, the gradient does not completely relax, so will see winds become breezy, but gusts should be limited to 30 mph or so. Cooler air then remains in place with highs on Thursday in the upper 40s to mid 50s, and lows Thursday night in the mid 20s to lower 30s.
Thus, only a modified ridge-valley split is expected at this point. All of this will occur along/ahead of a cold front approaching from the NW, which still looks to sweep thru the area Thu night into early Fri. Ahead of the cold front, afternoon temps on Thu look to climb into the upper 70s/near 80F, before cooler/drier air spreading into the area in the wake of the frontal passage results in afternoon highs Fri more in the lower/mid 60s.
301 PM MDT Wed Oct 14 2020 Ongoing high winds continue to be felt across the region as a cold front progresses southward through the region. Some of the higher elevations in the southern mountains may have some mixed precipitation. Winds will begin to diminish post-frontal this evening with the High Wind Warning set to expire at 6 PM MDT. A generally unsettled weather pattern will prevail later this week into the weekend beneath active northwesterly flow associated with a large cyclone over Hudson Bay. Some potential for snow accumulations may exist across some portions of the area this weekend w/ the slow passage of a shallow cold front. A cold frontal system will possibly bring light rain to most of the Nebraska sites: KBFF, KAIA, and KCDR.
802 PM EDT Wed Oct 14 2020 Water vapor imagery and the KTBW 00z sounding are both showing dry air aloft holding in place over the forecast area thanks to dominant ridging, resulting in warm and rain free conditions this afternoon. High pressure ridging into the northeastern Gulf of Mexico through Thursday night will continue to support northerly to easterly winds, generally less than 15 knots.
933 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2020 Cold front currently across central Oklahoma this evening will continue to drift southeast overnight. With increased cloud-cover, warmer overnight low temperatures expected tonight as compared to last night with lows in the upper 50s to lower 60s by daybreak. /issued 633 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2020/ Southeast winds around 5 knots overnight to become northeast at 10 to 15 knots and gusty after 15/18Z as a cold front moves across the region.
631 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2020 Breezy conditions will persist this evening before increasing once again around 6Z-7Z thanks to a strong cold front which will certainly not be much fun to fly through. Blowing dust will continue to be an issue through the afternoon and then again along and behind the cold front later tonight tonight. The cold front arriving tonight is currently moving across southern Kansas and should be in the extreme southern Panhandle by midnight and through our CWA before sunrise.
657 PM EDT Wed Oct 14 2020 Dry and warm weather will persist until rain returns with a passage of a Thursday cold front.
Cold front moving into far northeast Oklahoma this evening, currently located near a Burbank, Bigheart, Caney line.
637 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2020 (This evening through Thursday) A cold front will move across the area later this evening and overnight. Cooler air will also move in behind the front leading to highs only reaching the 60s and 70s Thursday afternoon, about 20 degrees cooler than what is expected this afternoon.
A cold front will shift winds from south to north as it passes through the area overnight. The unseasonably warm temperatures are set to be knocked back to below normal readings on Thursday as a cold front is set to move through the area tonight into Thursday morning.
516 PM MDT Wed Oct 14 2020 Ongoing high winds continue to be felt across the region as a cold front progresses southward through the region. Some of the higher elevations in the southern mountains may have some mixed precipitation. Winds will begin to diminish post-frontal this evening with the High Wind Warning set to expire at 6 PM MDT. A generally unsettled weather pattern will prevail later this week into the weekend beneath active northwesterly flow associated with a large cyclone over Hudson Bay. Some potential for snow accumulations may exist across some portions of the area this weekend w/ the slow passage of a shallow cold front. A cold front will move south of the area early this evening with northerly winds behind it.
At the same time the RH values have been increasing as cooler air moves into the region. The one factor to watch though is winds behind a second cold front that is expected to move through overnight tonight, winds could be just strong enough for frost to not form. This cooler air will also bring back the potential for frost across the area and maybe even a hard freeze for areas further northwest.
605 PM MDT Wed Oct 14 2020 Have allowed the high wind warning to expire. Cold front has pushed into NE, followed by a couple pockets of pressure rises.
Diegan Chattanooga Airport, TN 59 81 55 65 41 / 0 0 20 10 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 55 78 53 62 40 / 0 0 30 20 10 Oak Ridge, TN 56 78 52 62 39 / 0 0 40 20 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 48 76 50 60 36 / 0 10 50 50 10.
617 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2020 Windy conditions will begin to diminish some early this evening, but it will remain breezy into Thursday behind a cold front.