Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
The decreasing sun angle should allow temperatures to rapidly cool late this afternoon from the anomalous warm fall afternoon highs we are seeing, not only Today but the warmer highs on Sunday as well. The lower lying areas of the far western Ark river valley have the best shot of seeing lows in the upper 30s. Warmer temperatures area-wide are expected Sunday afternoon. A pre cold front trough is progged to impact the temperatures by Monday, as the consensus of the models lay out highs in the low 60s across the smoky hill river valley, while the frontal boundary, slower to impact the south where highs are forecast in mid and upper 70s along the Oklahoma line. The cold front will bring moderate northeast winds into the area during the day, not a pattern for high wind episodes.
A fairly benign weather pattern for the short term with northwest flow aloft across western Kansas and leeside troughing over eastern Colorado. By mid morning, winds will pick up due to the aforementioned leeside trough deepening with daytime heating seeing gusts up to 20-25 mph, mainly along and south of the Hwy 50 corridor being lighter the further north. A pre cold front trough is progged to impact the temperatures by Monday, as the consensus of the models lay out highs in the low 60s across the smoky hill river valley, while the frontal boundary, slower to impact the south where highs are forecast in mid and upper 70s along the Oklahoma line. The cold front will bring moderate northeast winds into the area during the day, not a pattern for high wind episodes.
1055 PM CDT Sat Nov 6 2021 (This afternoon through Sunday) An upper ridge will dominate Oklahoma's weather through the weekend.
Somewhat flat upper ridge will persist over the region tonight and into Sunday.
120 AM MST Sun Nov 7 2021 The latest upper analysis had a long-wave trough axis off the West Coast with strong southwest flow ahead of it and across the CWA. The front will move through the CWA today, which will be followed by cooler, northwest surface flow (but no precip today). The main weather story for the upcoming week is the large western upper trough that will shift eastward, marking a general downward trend of temperatures this week.
Upper level jet streak noses into the ridge overnight with the main impact being an increase in upper level clouds. Otherwise, lows stay fairly mild in the low to mid 40s. Ridge axis squarely overhead for Sunday will provide for another mild day across the region. NAM and a few of its derivatives suggest some lingering fog or stratus along the upslope side of the Buffalo Ridge in SW MN which in turn cuts back temperatures but this seems more likely to be an outlier solution with a moist biased model. Boundary works through Sunday night into Monday morning, ushering in cooler temperatures for Monday, albeit still on the warm side of normal (mainly 50s).
As the area of low pressure off the Florida Atlantic Coast continues to make its way northeastward, we'll continue to see cooler and drier air filtering into the region through tomorrow. Winds are expected to decrease by tomorrow afternoon as the low pressure gets further away and high pressure over the Central Plains begins to slide eastward over our region. Clear skies through the beginning of the week will allow chilly overnight lows (in the low 40s) as a good radiational cooling pattern sets up. Expect warmer temperatures as well under full sunshine with highs climbing into the low 70s.
Monday will be another well above normal day for temperatures, with maybe some slightly cooler temperatures in the northwest as upper heights start to fall in that area. A cold front will move through the area Monday night, but no precipitation is expected.
300 AM EST Sun Nov 7 2021 Dry weather and warming temperature can be expected under high pressure for the first half of the new week. Rain returns with a late week cold front.
Deep-layer flow will veer tonight to the W-SW as the trough departs, and we'll see another mild night with lows mainly in the 40s under mostly clear skies.
High pressure over the region will continue to provide above normal temperatures and dry conditions, but gradual cooling will take place into the middle of the week as a large trough slowly passes by to the north.
MORNING DISCUSSION: The weak cold front currently pushing through the region has resulted in some disorganized areas of light precipitation. This evening through tonight, expect clearing skies and colder temperatures behind the cold front.
Expect the upper level high pressure ridge to persist over the CWA during the period, while disturbances move EWD across the northern 2/3 of the CONUS (NAM/GFS/ECMWF).
500 AM EST Sun Nov 7 2021 The coastal low is on its way out to sea today, and high pressure will prevail through the forecast period.
634 AM EST Sun Nov 7 2021 Dry and warming high pressure will begin building into the region today and remain through the middle of the week. As of 230 AM EST: An axis of broad high pressure will slowly build into the area today behind the departing coastal low drifting further offshore. Tonight, high pressure will continue to build in, and should make for good radiational cooling conditions. As of 245 am Sunday: Dry, deep layer ridging will dominate the pattern over the much of the Southeast and the Mid-Atlantic through much of the short term. before height falls passing north of our forecast area flatten the upper ridge late in the period. The remainder of the forecast period continues to look increasingly active as a major trough emerges from the central Conus late in the week.
Geopotential heights will build through the weekend as the cyclone off the Carolina coast pulls off to the east. Though we'll start out on the chilly side again Monday morning, afternoon temperatures will be even warmer as the ridge peaks with 500 mb heights generally at or above the 97th percentile of climatology.
(Today and tonight) High pressure will keep warm and dry weather settled across the area for today and tonight.
420 AM EST Sun Nov 7 2021 Low pressure was along the southeast Atlantic coast, while high pressure extended from New England to Texas. The large area of high pressure is forecast to expand to the south and east resulting in a period of warming and drying.
949 AM EST Sun Nov 7 2021 High pressure and a moderating temperature trend will continue early into the workweek.
344 AM MST Sun Nov 7 2021 The latest upper analysis had a long-wave trough axis off the West Coast with strong southwest flow ahead of it and across the CWA. The front will move through the CWA today, which will be followed by cooler, northwest surface flow (but no precip today). The main weather story for the upcoming week is the large western upper trough that will shift eastward, marking a general downward trend of temperatures this week.
602 AM CST Sun Nov 7 2021 Above normal temperatures along with continued dry conditions will prevail across the Northland today as southerly winds and 850-hPa thermal ridging continue to influence our region. The next weather feature of interest will begin to pass over our region late tonight in the form of a cold front, however models seem to be in decent agreement that limited moisture and an overall lack of upper- level support will likely lead to only a few sprinkles at best for portions of our Wisconsin counties early Monday morning. Following the cold front's passage, winds will switch to the northwest with cooler air arriving through the day, but daytime highs should still reach the lower 50s for most.
High pressure at the surface and aloft will continue to slowly migrate eastward across the forecast area today through Monday.
229 AM MST Sun Nov 7 2021 The weak cold front currently pushing through the region has resulted in some disorganized areas of light precipitation. This evening through tonight, expect clearing skies and colder temperatures behind the cold front.
Isolated areas have dropped near or just below freezing, resulting in localized freezing fog. Upper level ridging will begin to edge into the Southeast today, resulting in a pleasant day with high temperatures reaching the mid 60s underneath clear skies.
Winds will be gusty, generally 15-25mph, across the Snake Plain, in and around Island Park, and the higher ridges in the central mountains. Any risk for blowing snow in the higher elevations will be limited, but not zero. It will be pretty chilly in the morning, with pretty much everyone below freezing, with the colder basins like Stanley and Copper Basin dropping closer to zero. It also looks like some freezing fog is possible across Island Park and the far Upper Plain, as well as the Stanley Basin.
All model RH time sections indicate these clouds pulling out of the area by 18Z, so we should still be able to reach our full warming potential with an upper level ridge overhead. This will bring winds around from the north/northwest and begin to usher in cooler air. With continuing cold air advection, Monday will be much cooler - though still just above normal for this time of year - with highs in the 50s.
Upper ridging continues over the central and southern plains at 08Z with a broad trough axis just off the west coast. The surface pattern has seen little to no substantial change with southwesterly flow over our area and a weak lee trough in the High Plains just to our west. 925-850mb temps in the 16-18 deg C range should translate to highs in the low to mid 70s for much of the area, with some far eastern locations possibly remaining in the upper 60s.
318 AM CST Sun Nov 7 2021 It will be slightly cooler and mostly cloudy across most of western and central North Dakota today. However temperatures will still be well above normal for this time of year, in the lower 50s to lower 60s.
950 AM EST Sun Nov 7 2021 High pressure will remain in place across the region through mid week.
The cool air advection will keep temperatures below normal with afternoon highs only reaching into the mid to upper 60s north, and around 70 to the lower 70s central and south with dew points in the 40s and 50s supporting very comfortable outdoor conditions.
A cut-off upper low off the Georgia and Carolina coast will push eastward today as an upper ridge builds over the Gulf Coast states. Lows tonight will be a few degrees warmer, but still well below normal values. Even warmer on Monday with highs in the lower to middle 70s.
The synoptic setup early this morning featured a northern stream upper wave moving east over Ontario, a southern stream trough moving east just off the southeastern coast and an upper ridge extending from Texas into the Missouri Valley. Finally, weak disturbance was rounding the upper ridge and generating a few isolated patches of high clouds over north central Indiana. The upper ridge will point northeastward across central Indiana late today and this evening before dropping southeast across the lower Mississippi Valley, Tennessee Valley and Appalachians on Monday. This formula combined with the dry column will keep any clouds relegated to cirrus and mostly this afternoon and evening as the ridge moves in. Low level thermals support above normal temperatures with afternoon highs in the lower 60s today and middle to upper 60s Monday.
354 AM CST Sun Nov 7 2021 Above normal temperatures along with continued dry conditions will prevail across the Northland today as southerly winds and 850-hPa thermal ridging continue to influence our region. The next weather feature of interest will begin to pass over our region late tonight in the form of a cold front, however models seem to be in decent agreement that limited moisture and an overall lack of upper- level support will likely lead to only a few sprinkles at best for portions of our Wisconsin counties early Monday morning. Following the cold front's passage, winds will switch to the northwest with cooler air arriving through the day, but daytime highs should still reach the lower 50s for most.
329 AM CST Sun Nov 7 2021 High pressure at the surface and aloft will continue to slowly migrate eastward across the forecast area today through Monday.
It will be slightly cooler and mostly cloudy across most of western and central North Dakota today. However temperatures will still be well above normal for this time of year, in the lower 50s to lower 60s.
As a result, temperatures were staying a little warmer than last night, with readings as of 3 AM in the upper 40s to lower 50s. Expect some cooler temperatures (highs in the mid to upper 50s, lows in the upper 30s to lower 40s) as we head into the upcoming week following a cold front passing through late tonight/Monday.
The highs influence wl linger ovr AR heading into the new work week, resulting in dry conds. Temps wl cont to sloly moderate as the ridge axis conts to gradually shift to the E, allowing a S/SE wind to return. Highs today are expected to range fm the mid 60s to the lower 70s, with mainly 70s anticipated on Mon.
715 AM EST Sun Nov 7 2021 High pressure and a moderating temperature trend will continue early into the workweek.
The position of this low did allow for a northerly drainage wind to develop overnight, which is currently still ongoing and affecting mainly the middle and upper Keys and nearshore waters. Meanwhile, Key West is being affected by the synoptic flow out of the northwest and therefore has been sitting in the lower 70s all night.
Some lingering moisture wrapping around this low has kept cloudy conditions across the state, but we should start to see improvement through today as drier air moves into the area.
651 AM EST Sun Nov 7 2021 Low pressure was along the southeast Atlantic coast, while high pressure extended from New England to Texas. The large area of high pressure is forecast to expand to the south and east resulting in a period of warming and drying.
410 AM EST Sun Nov 7 2021 High pressure and a moderating temperature trend will continue early into the workweek.
830 AM EST Sun Nov 7 2021 Dry weather and warming temperature can be expected under high pressure for the first half of the new week. Rain returns with a late week cold front. Eastern CONUS ridging will remain dominant with warming temperature and light wind.
328 AM MST Sun Nov 7 2021 High pressure over the region will continue to provide above normal temperatures and dry conditions, but gradual cooling will take place into the middle of the week as a large trough slowly passes by to the north.
451 AM CST Sun Nov 7 2021 (Today and tonight) High pressure will keep warm and dry weather settled across the area for today and tonight.
A cold front will continue to bring scattered light showers and mountain snow to portions of Nevada today.
/Issued 500 AM EST Sun Nov 7 2021/ The coastal low is on its way out to sea today, and high pressure will prevail through the forecast period.
526 AM EST Sun Nov 7 2021 Dry weather and warming temperature can be expected under high pressure for the first half of the new week. Rain returns with a late week cold front.
SHORT TERM (Today through Monday): 500mb ridge across east Texas and northern Mexico will continue to provide subsidence across south Texas today through Monday. Tides were running just below minor flood category along the lower Texas coast last night and with high tide tonight at 8:20 pm.
624 AM EST Sun Nov 7 2021 High pressure will remain in place across the region through mid week.
Otherwise for today, high pressure at the surface remains entrenched across the CWA. This, in addition to the increasing presence of ridging aloft building in from the west, will again result in a seasonably pleasant day across the forecast area.
1226 PM EST Sun Nov 7 2021 High pressure and a moderating temperature trend will continue early into the workweek.
1157 AM EST Sun Nov 7 2021 Dry weather and warming temperature can be expected under high pressure for the first half of the new week. Precipitation is expected to return with a late week cold front. Eastern CONUS ridging will remain dominant with warming temperature and light wind.
This will allow our gradual warming trend to continue with this afternoon's highs about 5-10 degrees warmer than yesterday due to warm advection and ample insolation. Otherwise, the recovering dewpoints and south winds will yield slightly warmer overnight lows with urban areas falling to around 50 and rural areas mostly in the 40s.
Tonight & Monday A cold front moves into Nebraska and Iowa tonight.
Upper low to our southeast will continue moving off into the Atlantic, and the ridge over the Plains will move eastward to begin its steady weakening over the next few days. Being between the low and ridge has given pretty weak flow near the surface, and yielding light and variable winds.
202 PM CST Sun Nov 7 2021 A flat mid-level ridge will continue across the region through the short term forecast. Energy traveling through that ridge is expected to pass over the CWA tonight and Monday. Critical thickness progs over the region suggest mostly rain with the overnight pcpn, but sfc temps down into the lower and mid 30s allows for some light snow. Highs on Monday are kinda tricky, but with most guidance giving highs in the low to mid 50s, will settle with those numbers.
1128 AM CST Sun Nov 7 2021 (Today and tonight) High pressure will keep warm and dry weather settled across the area for today and tonight.
308 PM EST Sun Nov 7 2021 Dry weather and warming temperature can be expected under high pressure for the first half of the week. Precipitation is expected to return with a late week cold front. Eastern CONUS ridging will remain dominant with warming temperature and light wind.
The forecast calls for a cool and mostly sunny afternoon, with a slight chance for drizzle as chunks of stratocumulus brush through the Lower Keys. A low pressure system to the east of Georgia supports moderate to fresh breezes this morning.
So wind speeds look on the low side of breezy remaining mostly under 15 mph tonight and Monday. And in spite of an increase in high clouds Monday, highs will likely reach into the lower or possibly middle 80s, 15 degrees warmer than normal.
Upper ridging will prompt a warming trend for the next few days.
This warmer airmass will allow lows tonight and tomorrow night to drop only to the mid to low 40s while daytime highs tomorrow are expected to be in the mid to upper 60s. Cloud coverage is expected to increase to partly cloudy starting late tomorrow as the upper ridge begins to exit.
As this moisture is forced over the high terrain, abundant orographic snowfall is occurring, with snow levels around 6500 to 7000 ft. Nevertheless, those traveling over mountain passes in western Wyoming will want to plan for winter driving conditions as a light accumulations are likely for the higher elevation roads.
SHORT TERM (Tonight through Monday Night): Overnight Sunday into Monday, the 500mb ridge over Central Texas will move east towards the Ohio River Valley.
Lee troughing at the surface will persist, yielding southerly to southeasterly winds.
306 PM EST Sun Nov 7 2021 Water vapor imagery highlights an upper level ridge sliding northeast across the Plains, upstream of a developing nor'easter to the east of the Carolinas. Temperatures across the island chain are in the mid to upper 70s with dewpoints in the lower to mid 60s. The sensor on top of the KEY tower recently measured a dewpoint of 57, the lowest we can remember so far this year.
As the low tracks northeast through the day, the remaining cloud coverage across the east will decrease, allowing for sunny skies across the region. Lows tonight will be in the lower 40s inland with the upper 40s along the coast.
1252 PM CST Sun Nov 7 2021 High pressure at 18Z was centered near Vicksburg MS with a ridge axis extending north-northeast into the OH valley. Frost will also be more limited, mainly over southern TN and some of our cooler valley locations in north AL. Temperatures will warm back above seasonal normals early this week as a deep layer stacked ridge axis shift east through the region.
209 PM EST Sun Nov 7 2021 Low pressure was along the southeast Atlantic coast, while high pressure extended from New England to Texas. The large area of high pressure is forecast to expand to the south and east resulting in a period of warming and drying.
An upper level trough will slowly eject eastward through Monday as an upper level ridge builds across the area. At the sfc, high pressure will remain in control with light northerly flow becoming northeast by Monday afternoon as the area of high pressure moves northeast of the area. Due to the deep layer ridging in place across the area, dry weather will prevail through Monday.
High pressure at the surface will remain in control of the weather across the region as we head into the new work week. This, while ridging aloft increases across the Lower Mississippi River Valley from the west, will result in warmer conditions on Monday compared to those over the past weekend. Then on Monday, look for mostly sunny skies and afternoon highs topping out in the low to middle 70s.
High temperatures over the next few hours this afternoon will primarily be in the 70s with perhaps a few cooler spots in the upper 60s.
1223 PM EST Sun Nov 7 2021 High pressure will remain in place across the region through mid week.
157 PM MST Sun Nov 7 2021 Mean NE Pac upper trough will continue to support downstream active progressive flow with an overall cooling trend in the period. Cold front continues to progress south across the region this afternoon with a period of breezy north winds continuing on the plains east of the BH. Dynamic cooling and cool temps to start will likely favor all snow with light accums expected in this corridor, esp given cool wet bulbs in the low 30s. The majority of the precip with this system looks to remain east of the FA, outside of some light rain or high elevation snow with the initial wave Tue night-Wed and light snow with the secondary cold front Thur-Thur night.
1026 AM MST Sun Nov 7 2021 The latest upper analysis had a long-wave trough axis off the West Coast with strong southwest flow ahead of it and across the CWA. The front will move through the CWA today, which will be followed by cooler, northwest surface flow (but no precip today). The main weather story for the upcoming week is the large western upper trough that will shift eastward, marking a general downward trend of temperatures this week.
Warm weather is then expected Monday with highs reaching the lower 60s, some 10 degrees above seasonal averages.
1130 AM CST Sun Nov 7 2021 Above normal temperatures along with continued dry conditions will prevail across the Northland today as southerly winds and 850-hPa thermal ridging continue to influence our region. The next weather feature of interest will begin to pass over our region late tonight in the form of a cold front, however models seem to be in decent agreement that limited moisture and an overall lack of upper- level support will likely lead to only a few sprinkles at best for portions of our Wisconsin counties early Monday morning. Following the cold front's passage, winds will switch to the northwest with cooler air arriving through the day, but daytime highs should still reach the lower 50s for most.
borsum Following a cold front crossing the area as a weak wave moves through, expecting the areas of light showers to move out of the area today. Temperatures will will be cooler today, back drown around normal. Lows tonight will drop down below freezing for much of the area.
As of early afternoon much of the high cloud cover has moved east, but additional variable mid and high level clouds can be expected into tonight.
251 PM CST Sun Nov 7 2021 18Z data has low pressure near KHON with another area of low pressure developing in southeast Colorado. A cold front ran from the South Dakota low back into Wyoming.
Meanwhile, a wave moving west to east north of the International border is dragging a somewhat diffuse cold front across the region with winds turning out of a more westerly then northerly direction behind it.
High clouds rounding the ridge will clear this evening leaving generally clear skies overnight.