Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Clear skies with warmer temperatures tonight as southerly winds return across the area.
But the bigger story is the low pressure system that will pass through the state tonight through Monday.
An upper short wave trof will bring some clouds to the area thru 00z, but no cigs blo 5000 feet.
The Upper low over the Pacific Northwest today will progress inland east of the Rockies by Monday night pushing our high pressure off to the east and initiating a southerly flow over the area.
55 High pressure and dry weather will continue through the period.
The main highlights in the short term are showers through early evening, fog overnight, then finally a trend toward drier, warmer weather tomorrow. As of mid-afternoon, the upper level low that has provided the lower Ohio Valley with clouds, cooler temperatures and showers the past few days was centered near Detroit, moving east/northeast.
/This evening through Monday/ High pressure ridge will continue to shift slowly east overnight.
An upper trough on the western U. Models continue to suggest potential for a dry slot over the eastern zones late Monday as the trough pushes east which could allow for brief sunshine.
136 PM EDT Sun Oct 2 2016 A large slow moving upper level low will drift slowly northeast through the southern Great Lakes, resulting in a few lingering showers today. High pressure will then build into the region, leading to dry conditions and a warming trend through the middle of the week. Not many changes to the forecast this morning as the upper level low continues to eject northeast. Surface analysis revealed a trough axis stretching from Toledo down to Indianapolis with weak confluence along the axis.
1245 PM CDT Sun Oct 2 2016 Stratus will continue to rotate around the southwestern side of a stacked low pressure system over the Great Lakes region, but will begin to pull away to the east and dissipate this afternoon or this evening as the low begins to eject eastward. Have nudged high temperatures down a few degrees to better reflect yesterday's trends under the persistent stratus deck, but have raised highs to the west where skies are already clear and are unlikely to cloud back over as the low departs.
However, a few passing high clouds will remain possible with the mid- and upper-level trough axis located just west of the area, and some cirrus will continue to blow off of convection over the Gulf. Low temperatures will continue their slow moderating trend, but still reach the 50s under light northerly flow associated with surface ridging north of the area.
Short wave ridging will move off to the east tonight, as a large upper trough moves inland from the west coast. The upper trough will continue east across the Rockies on Monday, with an associated lee trough developing.
140 PM EDT Sun Oct 2 2016 Upper level low pressure will maintain shower chances today. High pressure will then build overhead through the middle of the week. Closed low near western Lake Erie will shift east through the day with once again bands of showers rotating north and east across the region. Best height falls will be across the north, with cooler mid level temperatures allowing for higher POPs and possible isolated thunderstorms. Closed low shifts toward New York state overnight but drier air looks to be slow to arrive. High pressure will then quickly fill in for the middle of the week with dry weather dominating and temperatures gradually warming.
210 PM EDT SUN OCT 2 2016 An upper level low drifts off to the northeast today. High pressure moves in tonight and stays through mid week. will go on the lower side of MOS guidance for lows tonight in the northwestern counties were skies should clear, but will go with the warmer NAM MOS in areas where clouds should remain late in the night. High pressure then builds in and provides dry weather for Monday.
340 PM EDT Sun Oct 2 2016 A trough of low pressure aloft that has brought widespread clouds and isolated to scattered rain showers to eastern Kentucky over the past few days, is still spinning its way across the eastern Great Lakes region this afternoon. Not just Matthew is a problem though, as the key pattern changing trough plowing through the Great Plains is handled differently by the models. Similarly, in the Plains, the ECMWF is quicker and stronger with the trough moving east while the GFS slightly slower. The way the Hurricane interacts with the inbound trough and ridging out ahead of it will determine how much and how quickly Kentucky will be impacted by the next trough.
Mid afternoon temperatures ranged from the low 60s to the low 70s. Have continued trend of slightly cooler than blended guidance over typical cold air drainage areas in the north. Forecast focus on warm temperatures with chance of thunderstorms about mid week, then much cooler and dry towards the weekend.
250 PM EDT SUN OCT 2 2016 Upper level low pressure system will finally shift east of the area late today into tonight. Would expect fog/stratus to be most prevalent Monday morning as surface ridging will be overhead with basically calm winds as a result.
223 PM CDT Sun Oct 2 2016 Upper low has started to lift northeast after sitting in the OH valley for several days. For tonight, upper ridge will begin to build into the area from the west and on Monday should start to see decent warm air advection begin, especially over the western CWA.
225 PM EDT Sun Oct 2 2016 A deep upper level low will accelerate northeast tonight and finally move out of the region Monday.
332 PM EDT SUN OCT 2 2016 Low pressure over Western Lake Ontario will drift off the Mid Atlantic coast and dissipate Monday.
Potent trough aloft moves from northeast Nevada in the morning to eastern Montana in the afternoon with a strong Pacific cold front progged to move to the east across our southeast Wyoming zones. With the strength of the cold air advection and pressure rises behind the cold front, along with strong winds aloft, expect strong winds to develop in the post cold frontal airmass across Carbon county and over the I-80 Summit and Bordeaux. Confidence still not high enough to upgrade the high wind watch to a warning, so will leave this for our overnight shift teams to assess.
652 PM EDT SUN OCT 2 2016 Low pressure over Western Lake Ontario will drift off the Mid Atlantic coast and dissipate Monday.
An upper trough axis associated with the Southern Plains low will swing across Texas tonight, aiding the southeastward progress of a cold front analyzed across West Central Texas this afternoon. Drying and stabilization in the wake of today's storms should make the frontal passage across the region a dry one, with Thursday morning lows in the mid 50s to mid 60s about 10 degrees cooler than what was observed this morning.
Near short-term discussion through Thursday: Nearly zonal flow aloft over Montana tonight turns more from the southwest early Thursday morning in response to a strong upper-level trough moving over the Pacific Northwest states. Model agreement is excellent in keeping temperatures above freezing throughout this event.
High pressure building across the Desert Southwest will result in a warming trend through Thursday.
547 PM EDT Wed Mar 29 2017 High pressure exits tonight.
Building mid/upper level ridge will bring warmer temperatures with more sunshine than yesterday.
352 PM CDT Wed Mar 29 2017 The upper level low presently located over Kansas will move only slowly eastward overnight, becoming situated over eastern Missouri by Thursday afternoon. Soundings suggest that saturation in the dendritic layer over that area will be iffy at that point, so confidence is not that high, and any impacts would be minimal anyway with surface temps remaining above freezing. Otherwise, Clouds will linger in the east on Thursday, where highs will only be in the lower 40s. Back to the west where more sun is possible, looking at highs in the lower to mid 50s. The low affecting our southeast zones in the near term will be shifting off further to the east by Thursday night.
Winds shifted to the north fairly quickly, which has kept temperatures from exceeding the lower 90s this afternoon. Tonight, a weak cold front associated with low pressure in the Central Plains will move through the area early Thursday morning with patchy fog possible along the coast where moisture may recover ahead of it. During the day temperatures will be near normal for late March with highs ranging from the lower to middle 80s.
301 PM MDT Wed Mar 29 2017 Current surface analysis shows low pressure system centered over southeast KS.
350 PM CDT Wed Mar 29 2017 The deep upper closed low over the southern plains will be the weather maker south of the northland the next couple of days. A ridge of high pressure originating over Hudson Bay has been building into northwest MN where clearing has been occurring. Expect this high to aid in overnight clearing across at least northeast MN and maybe far northwestern WI. But the low to south will keep clouds lingering over much of the rest of northwest WI.
321 PM CDT Wed Mar 29 2017 An upper low continues its steady eastward march across the Southern Plains this afternoon, bringing showers and storms to the Upper Texas and Louisiana coastal areas. The upper low will continue east tonight, dragging a cold front southeastward through the area. The front should sweep southeast through the entire area by Thursday morning, bringing cooler and drier air to the region.
447 PM EDT Wed Mar 29 2017 The pressure ridge extending through the forecast area tonight will be off the coast Thursday. Moisture will return Thursday with a developing onshore flow and warm front just to our south.
343 PM EDT Wed Mar 29 2017 Old frontal boundary situated across south central GA should begin to push northward tonight in response to a cold front moving into the Mississippi River Valley. The cold front should remain well west of the CWFA until later in the day Thursday. There are some timing differences with the cold frontal passage between the NAM and GFS. Thursday will be a little complicated, because the highest pops will be centered around the two boundaries, the approaching front in the west and the old stationary front across eastern GA. The chances for precip will begin to increase quickly from the west late Thursday afternoon/early evening as convection along and ahead of the cold front approaches the area.
422 PM EDT Wed Mar 29 2017 High pressure exits tonight.
The cold front is still stretched across central Alabama and Georgia and a few showers and thunderstorms are possible in the far northeastern part of the area this afternoon.
A low pressure system and associated frontal boundary will approach the area tomorrow late afternoon. As moisture increases with the low level flow.
312 PM EDT Wed Mar 29 2017 High pressure will build overhead tonight before moving off the coast Thursday.
229 PM PDT Wed Mar 29 2017 High pressure aloft will drift east tonight. On Thursday a deep trough moving across the Great Basin will bring strong and gusty west winds to the mountains and deserts.
Cooler and breezy conditions return to the region on Thursday as a cold front sweeps through overnight.
1110 AM MDT Wed Mar 29 2017 Current surface analysis shows low pressure system that brought the recent rains is centered over southeast KS. Will keep highs mostly in the 50s, with some areas near 60 over northeast WY and the far western SD plains, as warmer air pushes in from the west. 08z surface analysis had weak high over the CWA and inverted trough across eastern NE into eastern SD. Water vapour loop showed upper low entering TX panhandle with precipitation shield mainly southeast of the CWA, although some weak returns/-RA noted over south central SD under weak 75kt jet streak aloft. Today, upper low moves northeast with lingering lift exiting the CWA this morning and staying southeast of the CWA this afternoon. Thursday, upper trough splits with main energy diving into the four corners area.
317 PM CDT Wed Mar 29 2017 Weak high pressure will remain over the area for the next 24 hours, keeping conditions dry across the region. Will start off Thursday night with a 500mb ridge temporarily in place, squeezed between lows across NV and MO.
208 PM EDT Wed Mar 29 2017 High pressure ridge will build southwest across the Carolinas today then move off the east coast Thursday.
350 PM CDT Wed Mar 29 2017 (Tonight and Thursday) High pressure will continue to build over Texas, during the next 24 hours. As an upper trough continues to move farther east, a ridge aloft will move into Texas from the west.
High pressure will return for more springlike conditions for the weekend. Upper level ridge over the West Coast today provided for sunny conditions and warm temperatures. While snow cover continues to keep some of the higher elevations of the Sierra Nevada on the cool side, Valley temperatures were able to reach into the lower 70s. In addition, the best chances of precipitation will exist over the higher terrain, with minimal accumulation expected.
244 PM MDT Wed Mar 29 2017 Upper low is centered over south central Kansas with large plume of mid-upper level moisture across NW Kansas. Ridge is building into the Central Rockies with axis of subsidence extending from the Nebraska Panhandle across central Colorado. This afternoon-Thursday morning: As upper low transitions eastward we should see a continued downward trend in rain coverage and intensity, however at least through the afternoon hours additional showers may develop as large scale forcing linger. Guidance shows showers lingering in our east through late tonight ending by 12Z as upper low final exits the region and ridging builds aloft. Cooler air mass lingers in our east, while southerly flow east of lee trough begins to bring WAA to our west.
313 PM MDT Wed Mar 29 2017 Issued at 310 MDT Wed Mar 29 2017 Flat ridge shifts east tonight with dry and cool conditions holding in place.
Warmer today and Thursday under building high pressure aloft.
317 PM CDT Wed Mar 29 2017 Water vapor imagery clearly illustrates the upper low rotating over central/eastern Oklahoma this afternoon, with ample moisture streaming northward into the area. Temperatures will lower into the low/mid 30s tonight, with lower 40s to lower 50s common for highs. Lingering clouds across the southeast one half of MPX forecast area should remain due to moisture/cyclonic flow from the departing upper low.
Elsewhere clearing will bring partly cloudy skies to the higher terrain and western Colorado helping to bring temperatures into the lower 50s. Under the cloud cover over portions of Washington and Lincoln counties highs may be a few degrees cooler. Increasing ridging in the upper levels behind the trough will help to clear out skies overnight and drop temperatures into the lower 30s. Elsewhere the lower levels will be a tad too dry for much if any mist formation. This moisture will get trapped under the ridge and increase clouds and eventually bring a slight chance of showers to the mountains by Thursday late afternoon. On the plains conditions will be warming and dry with highs in the lower 60s.
Winds are expected to become E to SE across much of S TX this evening before a cold front enters the area later tonight. Cooler mn temps and slightly cooler mx temps are expected. Small Craft Advisory conditions are expected across the Coastal WAters once again Thu morning as a cold front pushes through the area.
A cold front is currently working its way across the west side. Residual showers continue into Thursday as the main upper trough axis moves by.
1222 PM CDT Wed Mar 29 2017 Water vapor imagery early this morning shows a pronounced upper low over New Mexico with with a plume of mid/upper moisture extending to the north and east with increasing large scale ascent ahead of the wave. 00Z MPX/GRB soundings indicated quite a bit of dry air in place, but continued mid/upper forcing will help to saturate the lower levels through the day.
135 PM EDT Wed Mar 29 2017 Aviation A ridge of high pressure will track eastward through Michigan today. Clouds will thicken up during the day as a low pressure system approaches from the southwest.
In the middle to upper level(700-200 mb), latest available model streamline analysis overlaid on top of satelitte imagery as of 300 pm depict the next strong middle and upper low pressure migrating eastwards over Western OKlahoma. This system is betwixt two synoptic ridges within a continued typical progressive pattern, with one ridge axis downstream situated from the Eastern Great Lakes down to Northern Florida, and another upstream along the West coast. At the surface and in the lower to middle levels(Surface to 700 mb), Latest satelitte imagery overlaid with marine and land surface observations and analysis as of 300 pm, details an area of low pressure moving NE over Central Oklahoma swinging a cold front south down to the Southern Rio Grande Valley.
132 PM EDT Wed Mar 29 2017 High pressure ridge will build southwest across the Carolinas today then move off the east coast Thursday.
243 PM MST Wed Mar 29 2017 High pressure building across the Desert Southwest will result in a warming trend through Thursday.
619 PM EDT Wed Mar 29 2017 High pressure will build down from Eastern Canada tonight and Thursday and crest over the area Thursday night.
With the clearing, should be some mid- late afternoon heating/mixing which will help the warm front move northward into southern Missouri. Both the GFS/NAM are showing low pressure moving across the northern CWA with a cold front trailing to its south across the CWA during the day.
Early this afternoon, an area of low pressure was located just south of Wichita, with a warm front lifting north through southwestern Missouri. We will need to be especially mindful this afternoon of the position of the surface warm front, as the tornado threat will be maximized with any supercell that is able to move parallel to the boundary. The severe dynamic will shift east before the low lifts out of the area, which will allow for some lingering showers and isolated storms into the afternoon hours.
Mid-morning update to reflect pre-warm frontal convective activity moving east-northeast through the Quad State region. Upper low was over New Mexico this a.
55 A warm front will lift north through the state through this afternoon. with a cold front then pushing east across the state on Thu. but the last several runs of the high-res near-term guidance keeps suggesting this activity dissipating by mid-morning before reaching central sections of the state. The warm front will have lifted north of the state by late this afternoon and early evening. but additional SHRA/TSRA will remain possible along the main cold front which will surge east across the state by Thu afternoon.
202 PM CDT Wed Mar 29 2017 Latest GOES water vapor imagery showing closed low churning through the OK/TX panhandle. cloud cover and precipitation were keeping temperatures down in the lower/middle 40s. Our area will be on the northern periphery of precipitation associated with the low. Light rain/drizzle chances linger through Thursday and possibly into Thursday night east of the Mississippi River as the area remains in weakening stretched deformation axis associated with the closed low moving off through the Ohio River Valley.
Just a few patches of light rain remaining across central/south central SD early this morning as the main area of low pressure is well south of the region.
High pressure will build over the region tonight bringing another quiet and dry day to the area.
For the rest of today, ridging will remain over the region at both the surface and aloft, so we should expect dry conditions and warm temperatures. The afternoon sea breeze will keep coastal areas a bit cooler, but temperatures will soar for other locations, with some parts of the interior getting close to the 90-degree mark. High pressure will remain over the region through Thursday, with no marine hazards expected.
A cold front will move inland tonight with showers continuing into Thu as an upper level trough of low pressure moves across the Pacific NW.
Cold front extends south from the low into central OK. Dry punch has pushed into south central Kansas, as upper trough axis slowly moves east.
Lows will be mainly in the lower 60s with some upper 50s across the srn interior north of Lake Okeechobee. High pressure will drift eastward from the Bahamas and also move east off the mid Atlantic coast. This will allow low level flow to veer to the south with high temperatures into the lower to mid 80s along the immediate coast and in the upper 80s for the interior.
A POWERFUL UPPER LOW REMAINS INTACT OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN CONUS THIS AM COURTESY OF A REX BLOCK PREVENTING ANY NOTABLE PROGRESSION OF THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN. PLENTY OF MID-LEVEL ENERGY OVERHEAD TODAY WITH THE LOW MAKING VERY SLOW PROGRESS.
919 AM EDT SUN MAY 8 2016 COOL AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. A WARM FRONT WILL PUSH NORTH OF THE REGION LATER MONDAY. BRINGING A RETURN TO WARMER TEMPERATURES AND UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEK. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO PUSH NORTHWARD IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT. THE APPROACHING WARM FRONT WILL STRUGGLE TO MAKE MUCH NWD PROGRESS THROUGH TUE. WHILE N OF THE WARM FRONT THEY WILL BE SIMILAR TO THOSE ON MON IN THE MID 60S. MOIST AIR OVERSPREADS THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE WARM FRONT PASSAGE. THE DAILY POSSIBILITY EXISTS FOR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WARM SECTOR GIVEN SUFFICIENT MORNING HEATING TO PROMOTE DESTABILIZATION AND THE TRAVERSAL OF A WEAK UPPER TROUGH. BUT THERE IS A CONSISTENT SIGNAL FOR PRECIPITATION THU AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT NEARS.
/ISSUED 344 AM CDT SUN MAY 8 2016/ AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE MID SOUTH TODAY. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN THE 60S. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF THIS UPPER LOW AND HELP TO ADVECT RICHER LOW LEVEL GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA.
Kept severe wording (large hail and damaging winds) mentioned in the northern/eastern zones all the way through 1 AM Monday, as this surface cyclone tracks NE. Much of the severe threat should be over by around midnight north and east of Dodge City as the upper trough moves northeastward. For Monday, the base of an upper level low and cold pool rotates into western Kansas with a slight chance for showers and thunderstorms mainly in the afternoon and early evening.
645 AM CDT SUN MAY 8 2016 AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL RESULT IN MILD AND DRY CONDITIONS. THIS HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY MOVES EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE DAY. AND AS IS THIS HAPPENS A LIGHT EAST WIND WILL DEVELOP BY THE LATE AFTERNOON RESULTING IN COOLER TEMPERATURES BY LAKE SUPERIOR. A VERY WEAK COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA THIS AFTERNOON RESULTING IN A SUBTLE WIND SHIFT. BASICALLY RELYING ON THE WARM FRONTAL FORCING. KEPT CHANCES ON THE LOW SIDE THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.
/ISSUED 358 AM CDT SUN MAY 8 2016/ AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES WITH THE APEX PASSING OVERHEAD TODAY. SUBSIDENCE FROM THIS RIDGE WILL LEAD TO A DRY FORECAST TODAY WITH NO CHANCE. MOST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S SO WENT WITH A BLEND OF MODELS. A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY LOCATED IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL TRACK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS WILL CAUSE THE RIDGE OVERHEAD TO FLATTENING OUT OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.
627 AM CDT SUN MAY 8 2016 WATER VAPOR EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWING A MID-LEVEL LONG WAVE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL ONTARIO THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THAT TROUGH EXITS EAST THIS MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FOR DRY/PLEASANT CONDITIONS THIS MOTHERS DAY. PLAN ON TEMPERATURES TOPPING OFF IN THE UPPER 60S TO THE LOWER 70S. MOISTURE FEED/LIFT AHEAD OF THE LOW LOOKS TO PUSH SCATTERED SHOWERS INTO AREAS MAINLY SOUTH OF I-90 LATE TONIGHT AND A BIT FURTHER NORTHEAST MAINLY SOUTH OF I-94 ON MONDAY. THE CLOSED OPENS INTO A TROUGH.
LOW PRESSURE WILL EXIT THE AREA TODAY BUT CONTINUE TO HAVE ENOUGH INFLUENCE TO GENERATE SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.