Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1216 PM CDT Wed Jun 3 2020 Low pressure was located to the north and south of the Northland early this morning with high pressure across the Northern Plains. A trough of low pressure was working through northeastern Minnesota and was leading to a few isolated showers across the Arrowhead, but conditions were mainly clear with areas of patchy fog. Highs today will trend cooler than yesterday, but will still be around 10 degrees above normal.
(This evening through Thursday) Mid level moistening and weak isentropic ascent on the west side of broad/weak closed upper low resulted in isolated convection early this morning across western Oklahoma.
High pressure builds in this weekend, providing dry weather and lowering temperatures to near normal.
This pesky upper low is still allowing for some convection along the Coastal Plains, and some isolated activity along the I-35 corridor. These showers should be quick passing, as there is limited moisture to work with as the upper ridging to the west is trying to nudge in. Tomorrow showers should be confined to the Coastal Plains and more isolated in coverage as we get more dominance of the upper ridge. Temperatures are still on the increase, with highs reaching more normal values of the lower 90s.
CAMs suggest storms are going to form along a trough axis in the southern TX Panhandle this afternoon as well as coming off the mountains in NM and push into our western sections. Beat An upper level ridge axis will lie southwest to northeast across the Panhandles in between a large trough over the western U.
108 PM CDT Wed Jun 3 2020 Early afternoon water vapor imagery analyzes a subsidence layer developing in the mid-levels along the downstream portion of the ridge axis. ~3-km AGL), and the high-based storm mode will favor locally strong downdrafts with wind speeds to 50 mph due to the Inverted-V profiles beneath cloud base. Subsidence aloft is forecast to erode owing to increasing theta-e advection along and immediately west of the ridge axis as it pivots into the Big Bend region.
233 PM CDT Wed Jun 3 2020 Widely scattered showers/thunderstorms ongoing across portions of northwest Arkansas on backside of departing upper low.
Upper level ridging will give way this afternoon and there is a low chance of showers and thunderstorms.
High pressure will keep skies on the clear side for much of tonight. Areas of fog will clear tomorrow morning, leading to another sunny day before skies cloud over from west to east late in the day ahead of an approaching cold front.
1128 AM MDT Wed Jun 3 2020 Current surface analysis shows low pressure over southern SK, with warm front extending southeast into the Northern Plains and a cold front sliding across central MT into northwest WY. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are expected this afternoon, mostly across western into central SD in area of stronger instability behind the warm front and ahead of the cold front to the northwest.
257 PM MDT Wed Jun 3 2020 Current surface analysis shows low pressure over southeast SK, with warm front extending southeast into eastern ND and a cold front sliding across northwest SD into eastern MT. Widely scattered thunderstorms are expected late this afternoon into early this evening across western into central SD in area of higher instability near the trough and ahead of the cold front to the northwest. Cold front will progress slowly into northern portions of the forecast area overnight, with chances for showers and a few storms mostly from northeast WY to northwest SD. On Thursday, the cold front will slowly move southeast across the area.
Ongoing showers and thunderstorms over the Dakotas will lead to an increase in cloud cover across western Minnesota through the rest of this afternoon and evening, but the ridging overhead and plenty of dry air near the surface should dissipate any precipitation before it reaches western Minnesota.
1211 PM EDT Wed Jun 3 2020 Temperature and humidity will increase in the days ahead as Bermuda high pressure settles offshore. The clouds Thursday will suppress max-T values a bit, so it looks like today is the warmer of the 2 days.
Only update to the forecast this morning was to include a few showers and storms near the Montana border, and crank up the chance across similar areas and also across the highlands south of the Snake River.
912 AM MDT Wed Jun 3 2020 Current surface analysis shows low pressure over southern SK, with warm front extending southeast into the Northern Plains and a cold front sliding across central MT into northwest WY. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are expected this afternoon, mostly across western into central SD in area of stronger instability behind the warm front and ahead of the cold front to the northwest.
Many locations are already in the low 80s as of 10 am this morning with dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s for most. In the upper levels, there is a weak low back to the west across the Lower Mississippi River Valley. This low will make slow progress to the east and expect the main impacts from this system across the forecast area will be tomorrow. Visible satellite imagery indicates cu developing along portions of the southern Cumberland Plateau and across the high terrain along the TN/NC line.
Temps for the remainder of the afternoon are expected to reach the low to mid 90s under partly to mostly cloudy skies. Moisture will begin to decrease tonight as subsidence increases as a 500 mb ridge centered over Chihuahua, Mexico builds eastward. High temperatures on Thursday are expected to a a couple of degrees warmer than today as subsidence increases over the area.
With upper-level troughing persisting over the Deep South through the near term, expecting more scattered to numerous shower and thunderstorm development to occur on Thursday.
147 PM EDT Wed Jun 3 2020 Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible today with the approach and passage of a cold front. The cold front is expected to slow, and stall near the southern PA border, and this could contribute to the risk for training storms.
/issued 226 PM CDT Wed Jun 3 2020/ An upper low is over the Pacific Ocean southwest of California. There is a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon along the higher terrain of West Texas and southeast New Mexico as well as across the plains of southeast New Mexico. The upper ridge continues to build over West Texas and southeast New Mexico on Thursday. Showers and thunderstorms will be possible along the mountains of West Texas and southeast New Mexico as the low- level moisture interacts with the higher terrain.
733 PM EDT Wed Jun 3 2020 Cold front has dropped south of the area resulting in a northwesterly wind direction with decreasing speeds this evening. Recent SPC mesoanalysis suggests up to 1000 J/kg of surface based CAPE will be present here as dewpoints remain in the low 60s ahead of the front. Low amplitude mid level ridge will begin building into the area tonight while being dampened by a zonal jet along the international border. Weak flow, ridge overhead and a cap around 700mb will keep the area dry Thursday. Westerly flow will keep the region mild as 850mb temps remain in the mid teens C so expect highs once again into the low/mid 80s.
/issued 401 PM CDT Wed Jun 3 2020/ Wx map shows high pressure ridging across the Gulf, keeping southeast winds around 5 mph across inland areas, around 10 knots offshore.
/issued 246 PM CDT Wed Jun 3 2020/ (Tonight and Thursday) Quiet, dry, and warmer weather through tomorrow in store for West Central Texas. The trend of warmer temperatures across the area today will continue into tomorrow as an upper level ridge to our west edges slowly towards our area. 850mb temperatures will warm between 2 and 3 degrees Celsius across our CWA, and the increase in ridging aloft will allow for even less cloud cover than we have today. Will have a possibility for an embedded disturbance to move around the northeastern periphery of the upper ridge and enter the Texas Panhandle.
936 PM EDT Wed Jun 3 2020 The 00z KEY sounding showed that the lower air mass was stable and worked over at the time, due to the lingering effects of heavy convection earlier this afternoon. Though it is easy to let your eye get drawn to the spin of Tropical Storm Cristobal over southeast Mexico, our weather is currently more influenced by an upper trough extending from the Lower Mississippi Valley into the eastern Gulf. As the trough axis brushes the Keys this evening and exits northeast on Thursday, we will come under the right entrance region of a jet streak pointed northeast along the GA/SC/NC coast, favoring large-scale lift. In contrast, Key West and Marathon are about 8-10F warmer. Outside of convection, gentle east-southeast breezes will prevail as an Atlantic ridge axis nudges westward across Central and North Florida.
/Issued 233 PM CDT Wed Jun 3 2020/ Widely scattered showers/thunderstorms ongoing across portions of northwest Arkansas on backside of departing upper low.
521 PM MDT Wed Jun 3 2020 Current surface analysis shows low pressure over southeast SK, with warm front extending southeast into eastern ND and a cold front sliding across northwest SD into eastern MT. Widely scattered thunderstorms are expected late this afternoon into early this evening across western into central SD in area of higher instability near the trough and ahead of the cold front to the northwest. Cold front will progress slowly into northern portions of the forecast area overnight, with chances for showers and a few storms mostly from northeast WY to northwest SD. On Thursday, the cold front will slowly move southeast across the area.
The forecast starts off tomorrow night with a belt of northern stream westerlies across the Northern Plains with a southern stream closed low off the California coast and a mid-level ridge over far northern Mexico. Weak troughing will be in place across the southern states with Tropical Storm Cristobal meandering over the Yucatan Peninsula well to our south.
Expect VFR conditions to prevail across the Rio Grande Valley through the rest of tonight into early Thursday as a 500mb ridge across northern Mexico and west Texas continues to provide subsidence across southwest Texas. Isolated convection will develop along the coastal sections of the CWA Thursday as the seabreeze front develops along the lower Texas coast and moves inland Thurs afternoon. Temps for the remainder of the afternoon are expected to reach the low to mid 90s under partly to mostly cloudy skies. Moisture will begin to decrease tonight as subsidence increases as a 500 mb ridge centered over Chihuahua, Mexico builds eastward. High temperatures on Thursday are expected to a a couple of degrees warmer than today as subsidence increases over the area.
401 PM CDT Wed Jun 3 2020 Wx map shows high pressure ridging across the Gulf, keeping southeast winds around 5 mph across inland areas, around 10 knots offshore.
Aloft a S/W trough is pushing across the state, which should continue areas of mostly light rainfall across the region, with the potential for additional scattered showers and isolated storms developing through the night. It will remain cloudy overnight, with lows in the low 70s.
811 PM EDT Wed Jun 3 2020 Mid level ridging along the east side of Fl and Atlantic high pressure extending into the east Gulf of Mexico continues through tonight as Tropical Storm Cristobal churns in the Bay of Campeche. Atlantic high pressure stretching into the Gulf of Mexico along with Tropical Storm Cristobal in the Bay of Campeche will keep winds east and southeast at generally 15 knots or less through the end of the week.
Expect hot temperatures through tomorrow as strong high pressure remains over the region.
Confidence Growing on Severe Storm and Heavy Rain Threat on A building upper ridge pattern will drive mainly dry and seasonably warm conditions across the region over the next couple of days. The ridge axis will translate downstream of the CWA late Friday allowing for increased chances for showers and Thunderstorms by Friday evening.
1115 PM CDT Wed Jun 3 2020 (This evening through Thursday) Mid level moistening and weak isentropic ascent on the west side of broad/weak closed upper low resulted in isolated convection early this morning across western Oklahoma.
High pressure will build in from the north over the weekend bringing drier and cooler conditions.
A pair of cold fronts will pass across central Indiana tonight and again on Thursday night.
Severe weather potential would exist with either complex, given the high instability likely to be present across the area. Much of the region will be dry beginning Friday morning and continuing through the weekend, as upper level ridging builds into the area. Hot and humid conditions will also persist through this time frame, with highs expected to be 5 to 10 degrees above normal along with dew points regularly in the lower to mid 70s.
413 AM EDT Thu Jun 4 2020 Region remains under a weak upper-level trough through the short- term forecast period.
High temperatures are expected to be in the low 90s to near 100. An upper- level ridge building over the High Plains with an upper-level close low over the SOCAL coast. This low will move up the west side of the ridge and become an open wave by the time it reached the top of the axis.
Latest GOES Water Vapor imagery shows weak troughing over the southeast, with broad northwest flow across the northern half of the U. Coverage of diurnally-driven storms should be a bit higher on Thursday as the sub-tropical ridge retrogrades west a bit. Upper ridge will build back north Friday through the weekend.
Rain chances associated with the stationary front remain in the forecast through Friday when a weak low crosses Ontario into Quebec, dragging a cold front through the region.
Upper level ridge remains just west of the area, with northerly flow aloft. Hard to cap northerly flow, especially on the periphery of the ridge so another complex of storms developing across the Panhandle this afternoon seems completely reasonable. Will go closer to the warmer NAM guidance and bring highs today into the mid and upper 90s.
445 AM EDT Thu Jun 4 2020 Skies are cloudy with a large area of mostly light rain extending from the outer waters of Mainland Monroe southward to beyond 60 nm south of the Lower Keys. Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Cristobal is expected to move northward later Friday, while high pressure remains well north of our region.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms along the trough axis/cold front moving through our MN counties early this morning. The frontal boundary will stall just southeast of our CWA later today with weak high pressure keeping conditions pretty quiet much of the day. Highs will be a few degrees cooler than yesterday in the upper 70s to low 80s. There will be good forcing, but instability in our area on the cooler side of the frontal boundary will be pretty weak. Temps will be a few degrees cooler in the 70s.
The sfc cold front looks to be north near Peoria. Still expecting more convection to develop along the outflow, in conjunction with the cold front late this afternoon through this evening. HiRes CAMs have had a hard time adjusting to reality and continue to develop more convection along the cold front. Even though cold front moves through the area tonight, still expecting warm and humid conditions tomorrow with highs in the middle 80s. The cold front that moves through tonight will be near the area through Friday night and expecting scattered storms through the period, with highest pops Friday morning through Friday evening.
/issued 108 PM CDT Wed Jun 3 2020/ Early afternoon water vapor imagery analyzes a subsidence layer developing in the mid-levels along the downstream portion of the ridge axis. ~3-km AGL), and the high-based storm mode will favor locally strong downdrafts with wind speeds to 50 mph due to the Inverted-V profiles beneath cloud base. Subsidence aloft is forecast to erode owing to increasing theta-e advection along and immediately west of the ridge axis as it pivots into the Big Bend region.
Tonight through Friday Widespread showers and thunderstorms have developed rapidly over the past hour or so as a weak trough of low pressure is working its way through the area. The trough is providing just enough instability along with a warm, moist southerly flow to initiate the activity. Precipitation chances will ramp up again on Thursday afternoon but upper trough/best instability will be located over eastern Arkansas. The upper ridge that had dominated the pattern until today will begin to build back in over the region for Friday.
Farther south, an upper level ridge dominated the region from northern Mexico into the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains. The ridging pattern has resulted in a weakened low level flow pattern across western Kansas.
Heights will build across the area Friday as upper level ridging noses northward across the Southern Plains ahead of deep upper level troughing across the western U. Temperatures will be a few degrees cooler Friday as the front sags south. Highs will range from the lower 80s across north central Neb.
The mid and upper level ridge centered over Chihuahua state of Mexico gradually expands to western Texas today and the southern Plains Friday.
/issued 246 PM CDT Wed Jun 3 2020/ (Tonight and Thursday) Quiet, dry, and warmer weather through tomorrow in store for West Central Texas. The trend of warmer temperatures across the area today will continue into tomorrow as an upper level ridge to our west edges slowly towards our area. 850mb temperatures will warm between 2 and 3 degrees Celsius across our CWA, and the increase in ridging aloft will allow for even less cloud cover than we have today.
Closed low established over southern Saskatchewan and Manitoba will continue to spin down and shear apart as zonal flow across the northern tier persists for another 24 hours.
/issued 226 PM CDT Wed Jun 3 2020/ An upper low is over the Pacific Ocean southwest of California. There is a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon along the higher terrain of West Texas and southeast New Mexico as well as across the plains of southeast New Mexico. The upper ridge continues to build over West Texas and southeast New Mexico on Thursday. Showers and thunderstorms will be possible along the mountains of West Texas and southeast New Mexico as the low- level moisture interacts with the higher terrain. The upper ridge becomes more centered over the region on Friday so thunderstorm chances will decrease and temperatures will remain hot.
The flow aloft has become more zonal today, but the ridge has remained nearby and will sneak back in over the weekend. For storms to develop, they may struggle with moisture, as there is quite a bit of dryness in the low and mid levels. Although large scale forcing is low, a cold front is expected to be situated across southern Nebraska and southern Iowa Friday afternoon. Otherwise, expect another warm day on Friday as the upper level ridge pushes back into the area.
Most locations will see partly cloudy skies today with afternoon temperatures expected to peak in the lower 90s inland and in the upper 80s at the coast. Anything that does develop will weaken and dissipate around or shortly after sunrise, and look for low temperatures tonight to be in the the low to mid 70s inland and close to 80 at the coast. Tomorrow should be a little drier and a little warmer.
An MCS will be dropping south along the lower MS into the MS valley through early Friday morning, but this should remain well to our northwest and west through 12Z Friday. An upper ridge pattern will also begin to build across much of the SE region going into the weekend period, as TC Cristobal approaches the wrn Gulf Coast. Given the upper ridge in place, temps this weekend look to trend seasonably warm, with highs in the upper 80s/near 90F and lows thru Sun night in the upper 60s/around 70F. The latest global models continue to suggest TC Cristobal lifting more to the north across the lower MS Valley going into the new work week, before getting picked up by a broad upper trough axis swinging thru the Plains states into Tue.
The first is an upper low over srn CN, whose attendant cold fnt is supporting the development and maintenance of SHRA/TSRA activity across the area. Friday will be mostly dry as mid/upper ridging builds over the High Plains.
An upper level trough and onshore flow will bring cool showery weather to the region late Friday through the weekend.
High pressure will build in from the north over the weekend bringing drier and cooler conditions. Cut-off low south of California rejoins jet stream flow Friday night leading to an amplification of a downstream ridge in the central US and a trough over the Northeast.
For tonight, humid conditions will persist with lows only dropping to the low 70s. We could experience some scattered thunderstorms tonight's as small disturbances move overhead on the northeast periphery of a dirty ridge.
By mid to late morning, the atmosphere should be mostly uncapped, with free convection initiating over the higher terrain by late morning, and spreading into the valley during the afternoon and evening hours. Left at least some mention of rain chances overnight as there is weak troughing overhead, and favorable thermal profiles will exist aloft, yielding a small chance at some elevated convection tonight.
An upper level ridge will then build over the region from Friday through the weekend. Models have actually trended 1-2 degrees warmer over the last few cycles. The potential for storms should then diminish (at least somewhat) this weekend as that ridge builds in.
This will allow temperatures to fall into the low 40s across most of western and central ND.
An isolated shower or thunderstorm is possible to move in from the higher terrain of northern Lower and near the Ohio border. VFR continues tonight with light wind gradually becoming more consistently from the SW ahead of the next cold front due in the area later Friday. Closed low established over southern Saskatchewan and Manitoba will continue to spin down and shear apart as zonal flow across the northern tier persists for another 24 hours.
Chances for rainfall look minimal due to quiet northwesterly flow ahead of a building ridge aloft.
Isolated severe storms will be possible across the Highway 82 corridor this afternoon and early evening. High pressure east of the region, and the resulting southwest flow at the surface and in the low levels, will maintain ample moisture across the CWA again today. Isolated severe storms will also be possible during this time, especially across the Highway 82 corridor.
With all the cloudiness and wet weather expected today, temperatures will run several degrees below average topping out in the low 80's. High pressure ridging across central Florida will keep an overall south-southeast flow around 10-15 knots over the gulf coast waters through the end of the week. Winds and seas begin to increase late Friday and into the weekend as the gradient tightens between high pressure east of Florida and Tropical Storm Cristobal as it moves north through the central Gulf of Mexico.
357 AM PDT Thu Jun 4 2020 A low pressure system to the southwest of southern California will move slowly toward the northeast and move through southern California Friday night.
As such, our marine forecast is based upon when the tropical cyclone is expected to move northward and clear the Yucatan Peninsula. With that, it appears fresh to strong winds will overspread at least most of our marine district beginning late Friday into this weekend, with the highest winds anticipated in the western half of our coastal waters.
High pressure east of the region, and the resulting southwest flow at the surface and in the low levels, will maintain ample moisture across the CWA again today. Isolated severe storms will also be possible during this time, especially across the Highway 82 corridor.