Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
246 PM MDT Tue Jun 28 2022 The H5 ridge continues to break down this afternoon, with the initial push of showers crossing NW WY. With the ridge flattened out tonight into tomorrow, continued unsettled flow will continue to push across the state. The next cold front will sweep through in the unsettled pattern later on Wednesday.
Freezing levels around KLVM will be 9000-10,000 ft with slightly higher levels further E. Looking for a hot day with highs in the low to mid 90s. Arthur The upper ridge that brought dry weather the last few days will get broken down today and Wednesday, allowing for the chance of thunderstorms to enter the picture. Ridge axis shifts into central zones this afternoon. Flatter mid level flow for Wednesday, so expecting cooler temperatures.
Dew points might ramp up a little across our southern counties (back into the 60s) and it might be a few degrees warmer, but all in all, tomorrow should be pretty fantastic, too.
What is helping to make it pleasant is the lower humidity as dewpoints are only in the middle 50s to middle 60s attm.
229 PM EDT Tue Jun 28 2022 High pressure will bring mainly dry weather through most of the work week. After initially seasonably cool weather, temperatures will become much warmer by late in the week.
A low moving inland in the Pacific Northwest along the Canadian border is pushing the high over the Great Basin southeast to the Four Corners area, ideal for pulling the 50F dew points north into Utah and east into northern and central Colorado. With the steering flow controlled by the high to the south, expect slow moving and possibly training storms in eastern Utah and Western Colorado, increasing concerns for possible flash flooding.
216 PM EDT Tue Jun 28 2022 A secondary trough of low pressure moving across the region will keep a few showers around through this morning, but drying conditions with clearing skies are expected by this afternoon.
Tonight and Wednesday Showers and thunderstorms will move south across the area during the late afternoon and evening ahead of a cold front. Wednesday Night Through Tuesday Nearly zonal upper flow will prevail across the northern Plains and Great Lakes through the end of the week, then a ridge will build over the western U. weak high pressure will push east of the region, with strong WAA occurring over the western Great Lakes. It will be warmer night with low-level flow turning to the south/southwest.
Current temps are in the low 70s and are on track to top out in the upper 70s to low 80s this afternoon. A sprawling ridge of high pressure will bring dry and pleasant weather to eastern Kentucky today through Wednesday. We will also see a modest ridge valley temperature split tonight, as winds go nearly calm and skies clear off.
Nonetheless, we remain on the easterly side of a tropical low/inverted trough which is situated over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico with a stalled frontal boundary generally parallel to I-20.
(Tonight) Tonight is forecast to be the coolest night of the period with high pressure at the surface and aloft. Lows are expected to be in the lower 50s to lower 60s across eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas. The warming trend will continue through the work week as high pressure prevails at the surface and aloft.
Highs Wednesday will reach the low to mid 80s. Despite the convective-suppressing efforts of the overhead ridge forecast soundings still showing PW values above 2" and LCL's will be low enough to support scattered mainly diurnal convection.
Generally, upper level ridging will remain just to our north through the rest of the week and into the weekend.
However high pressure will build in and make for a quiet day with an onshore wind. High pressure will shift east Wednesday night with a return flow getting underway and a surge of 850/925 waa.
The low level jet does kick in tonight, along with decent 850mb warm advection. How the low level boundaries play out is very uncertain yet.
124 PM EDT Tue Jun 28 2022 High pressure will remain in control of the weather through mid week.
The ridge axis to our west will approach the Montana/North Dakota border after 00z. A weak wave will move through the ridge, bringing modest height falls with it as it flattens. We will see dry weather through most of the day as ridging tries to pop back up in the wake of the overnight wave. In the late afternoon/early evening, however, we transition to southwest flow aloft and start to see some height falls across the west as a couple of embedded waves are ejected from the trough to our west. With ridging overhead Wednesday afternoon, expect a much warmer day with widespread highs in the mid 80s to mid 90s. The pressure gradient will also tighten Wednesday east of the highway 83 corridor, leading to some breezy southerly winds here.
Tomorrow we will see 90s back again in the forecast for highs, with most areas right around 90 but some areas may be as high as the lower to mid 90s.
High pressure in control bringing above normal temperatures temperatures area wide. Tonight through Wednesday night Nevada will be under the influence of a large subtropical ridge of high pressure leading to warm conditions. A trough located off the Pacific Northwest coast will try and push onshore over the Canadian maritime this will lead to a tightening pressure gradient in the large scale SW flow over Western Nevada which will bring elevated WSW winds tonight and stronger flows Tuesday afternoon. Temperatures will remain above normal with highs in the low 90s to low 100s, and overnight lows falling into the middle 50s to mid 60s.
Thunderstorms within this region will be capable of producing damaging wind gusts of between 60 to 70 mph, in addition to marginally severe hail to nickel size (high freezing levels will likely help to keep hail below severe limits across most locations).
/EC/ Wednesday night through Tuesday: The chance of precipitation will increase this week as a low pressure disturbance developing in the Gulf of Mexico restores deep layer moisture through the ArkLaMiss region. Temperatures are expected to remain noticeably cooler and more comfortable compared to the oppressive heat that has invaded the region throughout the last 2 weeks or so. By the weekend, temperatures will begin to creep into the lower 90s with heat indices nearing 105, which may raise concerns for dangerous heat during the latter part of the weekend.
239 PM CDT Tue Jun 28 2022 It has been a beautiful late June day with comfortable humidity (dewpoints in the 50s) and temperatures in the low to mid 80s. For now, have the highest rain chances along and north of the highway 20 corridor, tapering to low end slight chances along the I-80 counties.
Precipitation chances return ahead of a cold front late this week and lingers through the holiday weekend. Although today will be warmer than yesterday, temperatures are expected to remain below normal. Highs will be in the upper 70s to low 80s in the lowlands, with mid 60s to 70s across the higher elevations.
146 PM EDT Tue Jun 28 2022 Aviation - Showers and a few thunderstorms possible tonight, early Wednesday An upper low moving over Hudson Bay will swing a trough through the Great Lakes late tonight.
High pressure then builds in from the north late week and pushes offshore this weekend allowing for a return of onshore flow and a more summer- like pattern. With the lower TD's in place, coolish overnight lows with nrn areas in the low 60s, to mid 60s elsewhere.
This places the Keys within a short wave ridge axis, with anticyclonic flow making it rather difficult for shower activity. The upper low to our immediate east will meander to the northwest over the next couple of days, parking its core over the Florida Keys.
1136 AM PDT Tue Jun 28 2022 Gusty west winds and cooler temperatures will occur today following the passage of a cold front.
The High Pressure will move east and a trough will be in placed along the Pacific Coast to bring more of the southerly flow into the region.
Temperatures are expected to be even warmer, ranging from the lower 80's to upper 90's along the I-25 corridor and eastern plains, the 80's in the mountain valleys and the 60's in the mountains. - RISER Key messages: 1) Plume of monsoonal moisture feeding into Colorado will produce a daily chance of afternoon and evening convection, mainly tied to the higher terrain, through the upcoming week.
A low pressure system to our north has started to move into the Pacific Northwest and shifted the ridge that was over the region to our east.
250 PM PDT Tue Jun 28 2022 West winds will gradually diminish this evening as our cold front pushes east of our region.
342 PM PDT Tue Jun 28 2022 West winds will gradually diminish this evening as our cold front pushes east of our region.
730 PM EDT Tue Jun 28 2022 High pressure slides across the Ohio Valley through tonight. A cold front moves across Michigan and Ontario tomorrow but remains just north of the local area.
It has been a beautiful late June day with comfortable humidity (dewpoints in the 50s) and temperatures in the low to mid 80s. For now, have the highest rain chances along and north of the highway 20 corridor, tapering to low end slight chances along the I-80 counties.
633 PM EDT Tue Jun 28 2022 High pressure will bring mainly dry weather through most of the work week. After initially seasonably cool weather, temperatures will become much warmer by late in the week.
613 PM CDT Tue Jun 28 2022 (Tonight) Tonight is forecast to be the coolest night of the period with high pressure at the surface and aloft. Lows are expected to be in the lower 50s to lower 60s across eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas. The warming trend will continue through the work week as high pressure prevails at the surface and aloft.
Winds are picking up across the region this afternoon as an area of low pressure moves into the Pacific Northwest, with several wind- prone areas seeing gusts of 30+ mph.
819 PM EDT Tue Jun 28 2022 Dry conditions continue through majority of the work week under high pressure.
Ridging aloft flattens somewhat across our forecast area, with an increase in low and mid level moisture. With a low and mid level theta-e ridge axis in the region, and with strong daytime heating, we will see an increase in afternoon and evening thunderstorm coverage, particularly along and west of Interstate 25. Warmer temperatures expected per 700 mb temperatures near 14 Celsius.
525 PM MDT Tue Jun 28 2022 Overview: An upper level ridge. Expect dry conditions and a continued warming trend via height rises /synoptic subsidence/ associated with the aforementioned ridge aloft. Pressure falls associated with a diurnally-driven thermal trough in the lee of the Rockies will result in modest tightening of the MSLP/H85 height gradient over eastern CO and western KS. Winds are unlikely to be stronger than 20-30 knots beneath the ridge -- where vertical wind profiles weaken with height (in the mid-levels).
Cooler and drier air continues to push into the region behind the passage of a cold front.
645 PM EDT Tue Jun 28 2022 High pressure slides across the Ohio Valley through tonight. A cold front moves across Michigan and Ontario tomorrow but remains just north of the local area.
The warming trend will continue through the work week as high pressure prevails at the surface and aloft.
High pressure will keep moist air from the south from advecting into the region this afternoon and into tonight. This will keep dew points low so relative humidities will be low for Wednesday when the temperature is expected to be several degrees warmer than today. The SPC has the entire CWA in a marginal risk for severe storms Wednesday as a cold front moves through Wednesday afternoon/evening providing a boundary for some potential storms. Storms are expected to initially fire out ahead of the low along a warm front Wednesday afternoon for which model timing differs. There may be a break in the axis of the low but more storms are expected to fire along and behind the cold front late Wednesday evening.
546 PM MDT Tue Jun 28 2022 The H5 ridge continues to break down this afternoon, with the initial push of showers crossing NW WY. With the ridge flattened out tonight into tomorrow, continued unsettled flow will continue to push across the state. The next cold front will sweep through in the unsettled pattern later on Wednesday.
Precipitation chances return ahead of a cold front late this week and lingers through the holiday weekend. Nudged temperatures slightly to account for current observations and trended them slightly cooler for the overnight.
1031 PM EDT Tue Jun 28 2022 Dry conditions continue through majority of the work week under high pressure.
Expect clear skies tonight along with cooler temperatures in the early morning hours. Temperatures at 2pm remain in the upper 70s at Corning, AR and Malden, MO with expected highs in the low to middle 80s. A weak broad ridge will continue to shift over the region through the work week resulting in slightly warmer temperatures.
High pressure moves offshore Wednesday, followed by another weak area of high pressure. That said, we should run warmer tonight than last night. The shifting high, combined with a weak mid level disturbance, should provide some isolated shower and storm chances along the Blue Ridge and near the NC/VA state line. Temperatures should be ever slightly warmer.
Cliff PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: Upper ridge will shift across the state today for continued warm conditions. With an upper low off the Pacific Northwest moving onshore, increasing southwest flow will induce weak lee cyclogenesis and thunderstorm development over the mountains of south central Montana.
301 PM MDT Tue Jun 28 2022 Overview: An upper level ridge. Expect dry conditions and a continued warming trend via height rises /synoptic subsidence/ associated with the aforementioned ridge aloft. Pressure falls associated with a diurnally-driven thermal trough in the lee of the Rockies will result in modest tightening of the MSLP/H85 height gradient over eastern CO and western KS. Winds are unlikely to be stronger than 20-30 knots beneath the ridge -- where vertical wind profiles weaken with height (in the mid-levels).
656 PM EDT Tue Jun 28 2022 High pressure builds in from the south with a warming trend expected through the week as ridging builds across the Northeast.
936 PM EDT Tue Jun 28 2022 High pressure has brought mainly dry weather through most of the work week.
1005 PM EDT Tue Jun 28 2022 High pressure slides across the Ohio Valley through tonight. A cold front moves across Michigan and Ontario tomorrow but remains just north of the local area.
830 PM EDT Tue Jun 28 2022 00Z sfc analysis shows high pressure overhead keeping the winds light and conditions still relatively comfortable. Temperatures are currently running in the low to mid 70s with dewpoints in the mid 50s amid light northeast winds, most places. Today is shaping up to be another beautiful summer day as high pressure centered over southern Indiana dominates the area. Overnight, a ridge/valley split will develop with valleys dropping into the mid 50s while ridge stay closer to 60. Wednesday will be a few degrees warmer as an upper level ridge axis moves over the Tennessee/Ohio Valleys and allows for clearing over the area. Wednesday night will again be similar to Tuesday night as a ridge/valleys split develops with valleys in the low to mid 50s, ridges in the low 60s, and fog developing along the river valleys.
Overnight temperatures will be a couple degrees cooler than last night but still near typical values for late June.
757 PM PDT Tue Jun 28 2022 West winds will gradually diminish this evening as our cold front pushes east of our region.
722 PM EDT Tue Jun 28 2022 High pressure has brought mainly dry weather through most of the work week.
Areas of convection over central WI, closer to the higher dewpoints but decaying cold front, has shown a weakening trend. However high pressure will build in and make for a quiet day with an onshore wind. High pressure will shift east Wednesday night with a return flow getting underway and a surge of 850/925 waa.
A return of showers and cooler temperatures are on tap for Western Washington today as an upper level low moves into Vancouver Island.
00Z sfc analysis shows high pressure overhead keeping the winds light and conditions still relatively comfortable. Temperatures are currently running in the low to mid 70s with dewpoints in the mid 50s amid light northeast winds, most places. Today is shaping up to be another beautiful summer day as high pressure centered over southern Indiana dominates the area. Overnight, a ridge/valley split will develop with valleys dropping into the mid 50s while ridge stay closer to 60. Wednesday will be a few degrees warmer as an upper level ridge axis moves over the Tennessee/Ohio Valleys and allows for clearing over the area. Wednesday night will again be similar to Tuesday night as a ridge/valleys split develops with valleys in the low to mid 50s, ridges in the low 60s, and fog developing along the river valleys.
High pressure moves offshore Wednesday, followed by another weak area of high pressure. That said, we should run warmer tonight than last night. The shifting high, combined with a weak mid level disturbance, should provide some isolated shower and storm chances along the Blue Ridge and near the NC/VA state line. Temperatures should be ever slightly warmer. A surface and an upper level ridge will move over the Carolina's Thursday.
(Today and tonight) Our forecast area will stay dry and hot in the short term under a building upper level ridge.
The forecast starts out with an upper ridge over the Black Hills/West River region, an upper trough pushing further east over the Great Lakes, and a closed upper low over British Columbia and northern Washington State. Southerly winds will usher in the warmer air with expected high temperatures in the 90s. Zonal flow sets up over South Central Nebraska and North Central Kansas on Thursday with a closed upper low over northern Canada. A cold front oriented southwest to northeast will sag south into the northern panhandle in the morning, with the front moving through during the day. Highs are expected to be primarily in the 80s as cooler air filters in.
441 AM EDT Wed Jun 29 2022 High pressure over the region will move east today. A weak cold front then approaches from the north tonight.
An H5 ridge overtop the region will begin to erode and shift eastward over the next 24 hours as as it does, deep layer flow becomes favorable for monsoonal moisture to advect north into the CRV and east. This will set the stage for favorable upslope flow over the high terrain of the Mojave desert and Mohave county which should efficiently tap into the bulk of the 1.
Worst conditions, within our forecast area will be areas north of a Columbus to Wayne line, where RH will dip into the low to mid 20s and winds will be at their peak. High temperatures will top out in the 90s Wednesday and Thursday, but with the low RH, thankfully it will be a dry heat. The majority of Thursday is expected to remain dry before the passage of a cold front brings increasing chances for showers and storms Thursday evening through Thursday night.
332 AM EDT Wed Jun 29 2022 High pressure, dry conditions, and warm temperatures persist through Thursday.
129 AM EDT Wed Jun 29 2022 Dry conditions continue through majority of the work week under high pressure.
High pressure with southwesterly flow will bring above normal temperatures to the area for the remainder of the week.
High pressure and dry weather will remain the dominant features through Thursday. Ridge building/warm advctn into Thursday will continue the warming trend, resulting in Thursday high temperature being 5 to 10 degrees above average.
The Central Gulf Coast region is being influenced by an closed upper low off the Texas coast. This upper low is pulling Gulf moisture northward into Alabama.
312 AM CDT Wed Jun 29 2022 The Mid-Mississippi Valley remains beneath northwesterly upper level flow downstream of a building ridge over the western CONUS. The high will continue to drift further east of the region over the next few days, turning low level flow to the southwest.
Temperatures have dropped off into the 50s in the lower valley areas of SE OK and across portions of NW AR.
Quiet conditions will continue today into tonight as weak ridging aloft moves east across the Western High Plains into the Central Plains. Farther north in south-central Canada, a deep upper level cut-off low will move slowly east through the weekend, while a weak ridge remains largely stationary over the southern CONUS. Thursday night, as the upper level low in Canada moves east, the trailing surface cold front will drift south into the central plains.
Thursday will be another hot day, ahead of a cold front that moves into the region Thursday night.
This seems highly plausible given that moist transport vectors will be the longest and oriented parallel to the low level front around the 06Z timeframe. -- Dry and warmer Wednesday and Thursday -- Dry conditions are expected from Wednesday afternoon into Thursday evening with mid level height rises occurring after the weak front passes through Wednesday morning.
1145 PM EDT Tue Jun 28 2022 High pressure builds in from the south with a warming trend expected through the week as ridging builds across the Northeast.
Good radiational cooling under clear skies and calm winds has allowed temperatures to drop into the lower to mid 50s for most, with a few locations even dropping into the lower 40s. Overnight lows into Thursday morning are then expected to remain in the lower to mid 60s. Low level moisture will begin to increase Thursday across the region as a warm front lifts northward into central Kentucky. As low level lapse rates steepen during peak heating Thursday afternoon, we could see isolated to scattered thunderstorms develop across Tennessee and south-central Kentucky near the highest instability axis.
1034 PM MDT Tue Jun 28 2022 The H5 ridge continues to break down this afternoon, with the initial push of showers crossing NW WY. With the ridge flattened out tonight into tomorrow, continued unsettled flow will continue to push across the state. The next cold front will sweep through in the unsettled pattern later on Wednesday. Mid-level flow becomes westerly on Thursday as the ridge is flattened by a trough passing to the north. Models currently show a weak cold front stalling across central Wyoming. This would keep Thursday highs a little cooler, but still around normal.
Precipitation chances return ahead of a cold front late this week and lingers through the holiday weekend. River valley fog is currently developing across the lowlands where skies have already cleared. Heights will then gradually rise overhead as an upper ridge begins building into the area late today into tonight. Daytime temperatures are expected to be near normal today, rising into the low to mid 80s across the lowlands and low 70s to around 80 in the mountains. Tonight, lows will be in the upper 50s to low 60s in the lowlands, and low to mid 50s in the higher elevations.
A return of showers and cooler temperatures are on tap for Western Washington as an upper level low moves into Vancouver Island.
335 AM EDT Wed Jun 29 2022 We can expect warm and dry conditions, along with mostly sunny skies and light and variable winds, across eastern Kentucky today, as a ridge of high continues to exert its influence on area weather. We could see a few showers and storms sneak across the TN border and into areas along and south of the Hal Rogers Parkway/Highway 80 corridor Thursday afternoon, as an ill defined frontal boundary makes a northward push into the lower TN valley. High pressure builds back into the region for the early part of the weekend before another upper-level trough brings a low across the central Canada.