Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
However, we're seeing some height rises in the wake of the MCV, and we also have some low-level ridging and lack of convergence progged ahead of the frontal boundary as it moves through the area. Any lingering precipitation should quickly exit the area Monday morning, with high pressure building in from the west through the day. Ridging will remain in place through Monday night, with seasonably dry weather across the area. The upper trough over the region will shift northeast by the middle of the week, and large scale pattern looks to evolve toward western troughing/eastern ridging by the end of the week.
356 PM CDT Sun Aug 9 2020 The CWA is currently on the eastern side of an upper level ridge that is partially eroded by an area of weakness/weak trough.
Capping inversion appears to be fairly strong through 00Z, but maybe weakened this evening as a cold front moves through.
The main upper trough will stay well to our north, but should push a cold front into our northwestern counties by this afternoon. Some thunderstorm development along the cold front will be possible, and with high CAPE values ahead of the boundary and decent shear along it, strong to severe storms will be possible. Clearing skies and drier air moving in behind the front will help temps tonight drop into the low to mid 50s. Monday will be very quiet with high pressure over most of the plains, and temps slightly cooler than average in the upper 70s.
226 PM CDT Sun Aug 9 2020 The upper level ridge has re-centered this afternoon from northern Chihuahua Mexico into far west Texas and southern New Mexico. A weak convectively enhanced impulse was riding over the northern part of this ridge near Ruidoso, New Mexico and should continue gradually east into the eastern plains of New Mexico to the Texas border during the evening. Monday we expect the upper ridge to amplify through the southern Rockies and place our region in northwest flow aloft.
Broad upper level ridging remains in place across the southern Plains into the Desert Southwest. The northern jet remains active with several strong troughs crossing western and central Canada. One of these troughs will pass well to the north and east of Utah. but the associated cold front will cross into northwestern Utah this evening.
255 PM EDT Sun Aug 9 2020 High pressure offshore and a weak trough of low pressure inland will maintain warm and humid conditions with scattered showers and thunderstorms through most of the week. Have raised POPs some but not to the high/likely values hinted at in the more aggressive guidance.
(This evening through Monday) Hot and humid conditions will persist underneath the upper high pressure ridge. Weak westerly flow around the northern side of the upper high is expected to assist some of these storms to move into northwestern Oklahoma during the afternoon.
Upper level high pressure remains anchored across much of the Southern United States for the beginning of the week.
25 inches and SE TX will lie on the east side of a weak inverted trough axis. Ambient temperatures are expected to reach the low 90s along the coast and almost 100 further inland with heat indices in the mid to upper 100s.
Convective cluster over western Kentucky attm is forecast to weaken as it comes east into the ridge, leaving the forecast dry for today. Zonal flow tonight into Monday will allow for some mid level energy to push east across the region as a cold front sags southeast across the western Great Lakes.
405 PM EDT Sun Aug 9 2020 The region will remain positioned between Atlantic high pressure and an inland area of broad low pressure. Low temperatures should range from the low to mid 70s inland and the upper 70s to around 80 degrees at the immediate coast. A mid level trough will remain over the region as ridging builds to the west. Very little change in the large scale pattern is shown by global models through the period as a broad trough persists inland and higher pressure well offshore over the Atlantic. However, the higher blended PoPs collaborate well with surrounding offices.
High pressure ridging across the area continues to provide a weak pressure gradient with light winds across ECFL.
350 PM CDT Sun Aug 9 2020 An expansive 500 mb ridge over the southern tier of the country this afternoon will continue to keep the weather relatively quiet over Central MS and the ArkLaMiss. At the surface, a high pressure ridge has slowly moved to the southeastern portion of the country. However, south/southwesterly winds will start up as that ridge axis shifts to the east, pushing more moisture into the region. Heat indices will surge into the low to mid 100s again from mid day into the afternoon. Upper-level ridging stretched across the CONUS from the west to east will keep conditions pretty much the same each day throughout the forecast period for our area. Temperatures will range from the low to mid 90s each day following the weekend trend of warm weather.
With that said, guidance suggests the lower level flow will become favorable for island cloud line formation tomorrow afternoon.
Monday and Monday night: The front will likely stall just to the south of our area on Monday with a somewhat cooler and drier air mass filtering into the mid MO Valley.
Assuming a period of sunshine across the western CWA behind the MCS, highs should reach the lower 90s with heat index potentially around 105 degrees from about Havana and Springfield west.
Weak upper level troughing will move east through Monday as upper level ridging begins to build in from the west. Deeper moisture will move into the area on Monday on the eastern side of the upper ridge with precipitable water values climbing to 1. Temperatures will be in the low to mid 90s inland and upper 80s to near 90 along the the coast. Lows will be in the low to mid 70s inland to upper 70s to near 80 along the coast.
After a cool-for-August day today and cool-for-August night tonight, upper level ridging begins to build back in tomorrow which will help lead to warmer temperatures.
Models depict subtle weaknesses in otherwise ridging aloft which could support higher POP in later forecasts.
Models depict subtle weaknesses in otherwise ridging aloft which could support higher POP in later forecasts. The chances will be on the increase due to an expected weakness in the upper ridge from the Ohio Valley ESE across the mid-Atlantic states mid to late week. The hot ridge will extend across the southern third of the country, with the westerlies tracking well to the north near the Canadian/US border. The main cold frontal waves will track from the Ohio Valley ESE through the northern mid- Atlantic states, with a well defined Appalachian surface lee trough expected from VA into NC. The highest chances will be during the afternoon and evening hours, with some activity lingering overnight. Otherwise, typically hot and humid conditions with highs in the mid 80s to lower 90s and lows in the lower to mid 70s.
An inverted surface thermal trough just off the southwest OR coast will result in a weak northerly gradient for most of the area. Tonight will be a bit warmer than this morning but still cool as the forecast area remains under a dry northwest flow aloft and northerly winds at the surface. The thermal trough will shift into eastern OR on Monday, pumping up temperatures in the mid-80s to mid-90s. A surge of cooler marine air through the Columbia River Gorge will cause winds to increase from Mosier to Arlington.
While the lower levels will dry out through the day, mid level moisture will keep precipitable water values above 3/4in through tonight in these areas, so having at least a slight chance for elevated convection seems reasonable given the forcing and added mention into the forecast. Cold front has worked southeast of the area and temperatures should hover near 80 degrees for highs with plenty of sun. Chambers A cold front currently passing over southeastern Montana is shifting winds to the northwest and bringing with it cooler temperatures, with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s today, that will help keep humidities from dropping below 20 percent.
228 PM EDT Sun Aug 9 2020 High pressure to the east and the west of the Florida peninsula coupled with very light and zonal synoptic flow is leading to an almost calm atmosphere from the surface on up to the tropopause. By mid-week, the shifting of high pressure will usher in a more predominant easterly flow that will last through the weekend.
The center of a 594 upper level ridge will be close to central TX and feel subsidence from this feature will keep most of SE TX dry on Monday. 850 mb temperatures support another day of high temperatures in the lower 90s coast to the upper 90's well inland. Skies will once clear early Monday night with temperatures once again slowly cooling into the mid 70's inland to the lower 80s along the coast.
This feature combined with a weak 500mb short wave trough and considerable isentropic ascent, sparked widespread showers and thunder across the area through sunrise into the afternoon. Given dew points in the lower 70s F, it won't take much, temperatures in the lower 90s F, to get heat index values around 100 F, maybe higher. A weak short wave trough riding the general flow of the base of the larger trough centered over the northern Plains and Canadian Prairies across SD/NE, may result in some residual precipitation across northwest Missouri/northeastern Kansas.
Other thunderstorms are developing over South Central Georgia where some forcing for ascent exists near an upper level trough axis due to DPVA. Overnight lows will be in the low to mid 70s, close to normal.
/NEW/ /Through Monday/ Temperatures have risen into the low to mid 90s across the region, and should continue to rise -- topping out in the upper 90s to around 100 F later this afternoon. Some model guidance brings this convection into our southeastern counties, but whatever does make it this far north will be fighting strong subsidence from the upper-level ridge. Look for another warm night with lows in the upper 70s for most locations, and in the lower 80s in the urban core of the Dallas/Fort Worth Metropolitan Area.
Temps are well on their way to the mid 90s, and dewpoints are in the low to mid 70s everywhere already. Prior discussion below: The region remains under the influence of upper ridging to the west and some troughing to the east. Thanks to the ridging influence, temperatures today will once again warm into the mid to upper 90s, similar to yesterday.
Further south, the complex of storms from this morning that were moving east left a meso-high in their wake and enhanced convergence between the high and weak remnant showers have allowed a stronger area of storms to develop. Even with cloudy to partly cloudy skies temps have warmed into the lower 80s in the west and mid to upper 80s from Madison E/SE. Dewpoints holding in the lower 70s combined with steep mid-level lapse rates and MLCAPE values range from 1,500-2,500 J/kg. Various guidance is trying to suggest that the storms developing over ND this afternoon will translate into a strong MCS that drops E/SE with the cold front tonight and could be overhead by sunrise Monday. So, the cold front moves through Monday afternoon and we'll have another warm and humid day Monday.
Most of the rain from these showers are not reaching the ground, but it is possible in the higher terrain this afternoon. The 12z sounding showed a similar midlevel cap to yesterday around 500 mb that the higher elevations will mix into today. Most of the guidance has been too warm by 5-10 degrees, and some high valleys have got into the lower 30s, so lows have been adjusted accordingly. If clouds linger over central Colorado tonight then temps may be a little warmer. Hot and dry conditions continue this week as high pressure remains south of the region, centered over the Arizona-New Mexico-Old Mexico triple point.
2 inches with high freezing levels to produce favorable and deep warm-rain process. 2 inches with high freezing levels to produce favorable and deep warm-rain process. Chattanooga Airport, TN 73 93 73 95 73 / 30 60 30 60 30 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 69 90 71 92 72 / 40 60 30 60 30 Oak Ridge, TN 69 91 70 93 71 / 40 60 30 60 30 Tri Cities Airport, TN 63 87 66 88 68 / 10 40 20 50 30.
Additionally, dewpoints in the low to mid 70s will combine to produce heat indices in the 100s today, with the highest approaching the mid 100s across the Osage Plains alongside gusty southwesterly winds. Low temperatures look to bottom out in the low to mid 70s as moisture remains in place over the region. Showers and thunderstorms begin to move into primarily the northern portions of the CWA by Monday afternoon and evening as a weak cold front becomes draped across central Missouri.
Far Northwest Arkansas look to be the exception with highs in the low 90s. breezy southerly winds gusting 15 to near 30 mph will be possible today with the higher gusts across Northeast Oklahoma.
After midnight a cold front moves south through much of the area with winds shifting to the north and northeast with gusts to around 20 mph possible. some cooler air moves into the area with east to northeast winds of 10 to 20 mph with higher gusts during the day. High temperatures will be below normal in the low to upper 80s.
A few locations have brushed with heat index near 100, but most locations remain in the lower to upper 90s. Still, southern extension of broad trough associated with vortex depicting several weak disturbances migrating from Great Basin through central plains. trough sparks another round of showers and storms Monday afternoon and evening.
Very weak upper air trough circulation seen moving westward on current infrared imagery and located about 200 miles offshore over the eastern Pacific.
55 High pressure will dominate across the region today with virtually no chance of precipitation. Latest surface analysis places the center of upper level high pressure over the Arklatex and it will be remaining pretty much in place through the period.
129 PM MDT Sun Aug 9 2020 Upper flow over the northern plains is nearly zonal, slightly cyclonic, with a low pressure system over central Canada. At the surface, a cold front is making its way through the Dakotas, leaving breezy northwest winds behind it. Tripp county may be clipped by storms that develop along the cold front, supported by around 2000 J/kg MLCAPE there. High pressure over the region will keep Monday quiet, after the morning showers/storms end.
1108 AM MDT Sun Aug 9 2020 Current surface analysis shows one frontal boundary just south and east of the region, with a cold front over MT also approaching the area. Upper level analysis shows low pressure over central Canada shifting slowly northeastward, with near zonal flow across the northern Plains. Cold front to the northwest will push through the area today, bringing breezy northwesterly winds to most areas behind it. Highs will range from the mid to upper 70s over portions of northeast WY and the higher Black Hills to the low to mid 90s over far southern SD.
Temps will remain a few degrees above normal for much of the area with highs in the low 90s.
1230 PM EDT Sun Aug 9 2020 Warm and dry weather will continue through Monday under high pressure.
An upper ridge over the area will retrograde to the west this week, putting our area in northwest flow aloft.
SHORT TERM (Now through Monday Night): 500 mb ridging will continue to dominate across the state through the short term period while an inverted trough/tropical wave to the south across the western Bay of Campeche advances westward into inland Mexico.
1238 PM CDT Sun Aug 9 2020 VFR will dominate with upper level high pressure still prominent over the southern plains region. High pressure continues to dominate the lower half of CONUS, centered over Texas. The ridging to the west will begin to amplify today and tomorrow, which will give slightly more influence to northerly flow aloft east of the Rockies. The heat is the main theme for the middle of August as upper ridging remains the dominate feature controlling our weather. The center of the ridge is forecast to retrograde to southern AZ/NM and northern Mexico early this coming week. This high-based activity would propagate southeastward before fading late in the evening/night.
253 PM CDT Sun Aug 9 2020 (Tonight and Monday) An upper level ridge remains in place over Texas, and our area will have very little change in conditions tonight and Monday. The large upper level ridge remains parked pretty much on top of Texas through the first half of the week. At any rate, along with the hot temperatures, no rain is expected due to the upper level ridge suppressing convection.
High pressure over the region will result in well above average daytime temperatures this week, as well as below average daily thunderstorm chances. Otherwise, high temperatures will top out 6-10 degrees above normal across southeast Arizona today, with upper 90s to near 100 degrees across Santa Cruz/Cochise counties, 102-107 in the lower elevations of Graham, eastern Pima and Pinal counties and 105-110 across central/western Pima county.
It is a bit warmer where storms have not been as prevalent like the lakes region. Storms will end around or just after sunset with skies clearing and temperatures falling back into the low 70s for central Louisiana and in the lakes region of southeast Texas by sunrise.
158 PM CDT Sun Aug 9 2020 A large and persistent upper level high pressure system centered across the desert southwest will be a main weather feature across west Texas and southeast New Mexico the next seven days.
135 PM EDT Sun Aug 9 2020 One more very warm and mostly dry day Monday as high pressure begins to shift east. Valley fog is expected again tonight with aforementioned high pressure and very dry air remaining aloft. Otherwise, another warm and dry (temperatures in the upper 80s/lower 90s, dew points in the lower 60s) day for much of the lower elevations. Monday starts off dry with high pressure exiting the area.
337 PM CDT Sun Aug 9 2020 Current surface analysis places cold front pushing through eastern North Dakota, currently orientated from near Hillsboro to east of Ellendale. a quiet night is expected across the area in the wake of the cold front. modest ridging develops over the area keeping conditions dry. Some fire weather concerns develop given the low dewpoint expected over the west and south central, but stronger winds remain to the north and east where tighter pressure gradient is expected as low passes through northern Manitoba.
Otherwise, seasonably warm conditions are xpcted later tonight, as early morning lows trend mainly in the lower/mid 70s for most spots. Upper ridge axis over much of the region may begin to weaken just a little bit on Mon, thereby allowing more iso/sct showers/tstms over parts of the mid TN Valley heading into the afternoon hrs. Outside of the rainfall, unseasonably hot/humid conditions will again develop, with afternoon highs climbing into the lower/midi 90s and max heat indices climbing into the 99-104F range for some areas. Gen weaknesses in the ridge pattern aloft may again allow for sct showers/tstms in the afternoon, but may not be enough to offset the hot/humid wx conditions across much of the area. Overnight lows thru Tue night gen look to remain in the lower 70s/near 70F for most locations.
Dewpoints are forecast to rise to the lower 70s in southeast Indiana into far western Ohio/nrn Ky. Highs are forecast to range from the mid 80s in southeast Indiana to the lower 90s in the Scioto Valley. Temperatures will be generally range from the lower 80s in the northwestern CWA to around 90 in the southeastern CWA. An upper level low in the Midwest will slow down over the Ohio Valley as the mean flow at this level is shunted north around the high pressure off the East Coast.
222 PM EDT Sun Aug 9 2020 An upper level trough over the eastern states will continue over the eastern states. Bermuda high pressure will strengthen during the upcoming week supporting the typical summertime pattern of diurnal convection and near normal temperatures. A longwave upper trough will remain over the region through tonight. DCAPE values support a damaging wind threat ranging from 1000 to 1300 J/kg with the highest values west. Expecting lows to fall into the low and mid 70s under mostly clear skies again. A weak 500 mb trough to our west Monday morning will slowly move east, crossing the Midlands and CSRA through Monday night. Weak lee- side troughing will provide some surface convergence to support afternoon thunderstorms.
1222 PM EDT Sun Aug 9 2020 Warm and dry weather will continue through Monday under high pressure.
925 PM EDT Sun Aug 9 2020 High pressure will be settled overhead tonight into Monday.
Forecast min temps were based on persistence from the previous nights low temperatures which seems to be the best forecast tool given the upper level ridge that is centered across the heart of our region attm. This ridge will continue to suppress all but very isolated late afternoon convection once again Monday Afternoon/ Evening across our extreme southeast zones.
This system will continue to move east and we will get a break from storms before a cold front presently in over far northwestern Minnesota moves through tonight into tomorrow morning. Monday, the cold front should exit eastern Wisconsin by mid morning.
541 PM MDT Sun Aug 9 2020 Upper flow over the northern plains is nearly zonal, slightly cyclonic, with a low pressure system over central Canada. At the surface, a cold front is making its way through the Dakotas, leaving breezy northwest winds behind it. Tripp county may be clipped by storms that develop along the cold front, supported by around 2000 J/kg MLCAPE there. High pressure over the region will keep Monday quiet, after the morning showers/storms end.
/issued 357 PM CDT Sun Aug 9 2020/ An upper-level ridge continues to dominate the region. The ridge has squandered any rain chances through today and has kept us dry across the Mid-South. Heat index values have reached into the low 100s but have remained below the 105 degree threshold needed for an advisory.
955 PM EDT Sun Aug 9 2020 High pressure offshore and a weak trough of low pressure inland will maintain warm and humid conditions with scattered showers and thunderstorms through most of the week. Have raised POPs some but not to the high/likely values hinted at in the more aggressive guidance.
Key West radar is tracking a consolidated outflow boundary to the north of the Lower Keys, a bit farther north than last evening. Most of the Keys will see temperatures fall to the lower 80s.
846 PM MDT Sun Aug 9 2020 Broad cyclonic flow over northern US with short wave dropping into trof into northern MT. Monday Through Sunday High pressure over the region will keep Monday quiet, after the morning showers/storms end.
1034 PM EDT Sun Aug 9 2020 The region will remain positioned between Atlantic high pressure and an inland area of broad low pressure. A mid level trough will remain over the region as ridging builds to the west. Very little change in the large scale pattern is shown by global models through the period as a broad trough persists inland and higher pressure well offshore over the Atlantic. However, the higher blended PoPs collaborate well with surrounding offices.
714 PM EDT Sun Aug 9 2020 An upper level trough over the eastern states will continue over the eastern states. Bermuda high pressure will strengthen during the upcoming week supporting the typical summertime pattern of diurnal convection and near normal temperatures. Expecting lows to fall into the low and mid 70s under mostly clear skies again. A weak 500 mb trough to our west Monday morning will slowly move east, crossing the Midlands and CSRA through Monday night. Weak lee- side troughing will provide some surface convergence to support afternoon thunderstorms.
638 PM CDT Sun Aug 9 2020 Favorable mid level lapse rates are quickly transitioning south and east of our CWA as the cold front moves over the RRV. Cold frontal system now moving across northwest MN and southeastern ND with stronger deep layer shear across northwest MN and deeper instabilities in far southeast ND into west central MN.