Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
212 AM CDT Thu Oct 8 2020 Quiet across the area early this morning as high pressure was building in from the Northern Plains/MN. with the exception of a few cold spots in the bog areas of central WI which were in the lower 30s. Another quiet day on tap for today as the area of high pressure drifts overhead. Warm air advection kick in tonight on the backside of the departing high an in advance of low pressure moving along the US/Canadian border. A trailing cold front from that low along the US/Canadian border looks to come through dry Friday night.
318 AM CDT Thu Oct 8 2020 Key Messages: -Slightly warmer afternoon high in the lower to mid 80s.
Building high pressure, centered near Lake Michigan, will support dry conditions today. With the forecast area on the eastern flank of high pressure, cold advection in northerly flow will result in slightly below seasonal temperature values.
413 AM EDT Thu Oct 8 2020 High pressure centered over the area today will build slowly east offering dry weather and above normal temperatures through the end of the week. Low temperatures to range from the mid to upper 40s northeast to the lower 50s southwest.
113 AM EDT Thu Oct 8 2020 Look for clear skies overnight with lows in the lower to middle 40s. Warmer than normal temperatures will continue into the weekend. Deepest mixing appears to be across east-northeast locations where thermal troughing aloft is bit more pronounced. This will set up decent radiational cooling conditions tonight with lows into the low to mid 40s. Broad synoptic scale subsidence/sunny skies continue for Thursday with southern Great Lakes/Ohio Valley in upper level inflection zone downstream of central CONUS longwave ridging. Thursday should feature coolest conditions over next several days due to residual low level thermal troughing persisting across the eastern Great Lakes.
High pressure will maintain a warm, dry and stable airmass across the region through the rest of the week.
This trough moves out into plains 12z Mon and into the upper Great Lakes on Tue. GFS and Canadian are the faster models with the upper trough while the ECMWF is slower. The ECMWF and Canadian are more amplified with this trough as well. GFS seems to be the only model that seems to be less amplified with this trough and is the odd model out. Upper troughing remains over the Great Lakes region 12z Wed. More troughing then moves into the Rockies 12z Thu. On Friday, southerly wind gusts up to 30 knots across the eastern lake will be possible as a warm front passes over the lake. Northwest wind gusts up to 25 knots look possible Friday night due to a pressure gradient behind the warm front.
Weak area of low pressure aloft over N TX under the upper ridge axis will continue to deepen and eventually become an open wave today. Upper ridging over FL will meanwhile intensify, and steer Delta nwd towards the LA Gulf Coast today through Friday. Increasing cloud cover and pds of shwrs will keep our temperatures from reaching out of the low to mid 80s today.
High pressure across the area will keep us dry with light winds today. Overnight lows will be warmer across the east tonight in response to the additional cloud cover.
322 AM CDT Thu Oct 8 2020 High pressure over the area at 09z with light winds and temperatures in the 30s. But nonetheless winds tonight will be 12-25 mph keeping temps warmer with lows mid 40s to around 50. Friday will see low pressure move east into Manitoba with a cold front from the low moving thru the area midday and the afternoon shift the winds to the northwest. Very warm airmass SE ND and WC MN southward ahead of the front with highs around 80 in the far southern RRV with low 70s up to Grand Forks while a bit cooler toward Canadian border.
/22/ Expect dry conditions tonight as high pressure remains in control across the region.
127 AM EDT Thu Oct 8 2020 High pressure builds into the area through Thursday and exits offshore Friday.
232 AM CDT Thu Oct 8 2020 An upper level low was embedded within a ridge aloft over southwest OK early this morning.
Clear skies prevail this evening amidst deep ridging across the region. With that, temperatures are trending slightly cooler than the previous fcst therefore lowered them through the overnight by a degree. DGS Chattanooga Airport, TN 83 63 77 66 76 / 0 0 30 50 60 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 81 61 76 63 75 / 0 0 10 50 60 Oak Ridge, TN 82 59 76 63 74 / 0 0 10 60 60 Tri Cities Airport, TN 79 54 76 60 72 / 0 0 10 40 60.
A breezy day is in store for the Northern Rockies today as the ridge flattens out.
We'll see another day of unseasonably warm temperatures under a high pressure ridge.
308 AM CDT Thu Oct 8 2020 Early this morning, broad upper ridging was in place over the Northern High Plains with North Dakota on the eastern slope. This wave will flatten the ridge and bring widespread cloud cover across much of western and central North Dakota through the afternoon. At the surface, a north to south oriented warm front will move across the west and central through the day. A cold front will push north to south overnight tonight, shifting the wind to out of the west. Behind the cold front, breezy northwest winds will develop Friday afternoon across portions of the central and into the Turtle Mountains and James River Valley. Highs will be cooler across the north, in the low to mid 60s.
Early Thursday morning temperatures should hover in the lower 70's along the coast and middle to upper 60's inland. Despite the rain chances, temperatures should be able to recover into the lower to middle 80's by mid afternoon across much of the area.
I also lowered the low temperature around 2 to 4 degrees. Dew points upstream in Wisconsin are in the lower 40s or upper 30s, so with low temperatures expected to be in that ballpark, patchy fog could develop by daybreak.
348 AM CDT Thu Oct 8 2020 A weak inverted completely unproductive upper trough centered across the Red River Valley will eject northeast of the area with the approach of the next Hurricane to the central Gulf Coast.
354 AM EDT Thu Oct 8 2020 Decent radiational cooling overnight is resulting in a cool start to this morning with temperatures to dipping into the low/mid 40s and some locations in the upper 30s. Post frontal cooler airmass lingers across Michigan through peak heating and helps hold high temperatures this afternoon in the 60s.
Clear skies persist once again across the CWA and much of the Front Range as a 500-mb trough sits overhead. Currently a stalled cold front has backed up along the Laramie Range resulting in east to northeast winds that have helped clear out some of the smoke earlier in the day.
224 AM MDT Thu Oct 8 2020 Upper air analysis shows weak ridging across the western half of the CONUS. Much warmer air will advect into the area today, with highs reaching well into the 80s across much of the lower elevations.
Higher clouds are streaming in from the south well out ahead of the center of the circulation of Hurricane Delta, otherwise high pressure anchored across the region will continue to make for near cloudless skies overhead today.
341 AM EDT Thu Oct 8 2020 Weak upper ridging persists across the region through this forecast period.
242 AM CDT Thu Oct 8 2020 Clear skies and warmer than normal temperatures will continue for Thursday, but a touch "cooler" compared to the previous few days as a weakness in the ridge is apparent via WV satellite and accompanying upper air analysis. This will promote slightly lower heights with temps about 3-5 degrees cooler than yesterday. The setup is short-lived however, as the trough to the east kicks towards the Lower Mississippi valley and heights rebound ahead of an impending long wave trough entering the PAC coast. The impact on the trough couple will establish a persistent SW flow regime aloft, allowing for increased downsloping over west TX and SE NM.
302 AM CDT Thu Oct 8 2020 Early this morning, high pressure was sinking into the area from the north. This high pressures is expected to sink more into the area today and will drive the short term weather. Discussion: High pressure makes for a quiet day today. Looking to the H85 cold front from yesterday, it is still essentially stalled out across the area.
Some mid-level cloud cover tonight accompanying a minor trough crossing the region. Southwesterly flow will continue to bring smoke northward through Friday ahead of the next trough.
A stout thermal ridge will fall overtop the forecast area setting the stage for near record temperatures on Friday.
Biggest changes to the forecast were to highlight areas of smoke in central OR through Thursday morning, as SW winds aloft have brought smoke into central Oregon and high pressure and quiet sfc conditions have allowed some mixing down to sfc, impacting air quality and visibility.
High pressure becomes centered overhead to ensure dry and favorable aviation conditions Thursday night. Temperatures are expected to remain mild through the forecast with highs topping out in the middle 60s Thursday as high pressure builds through the region provides mostly sunny skies.
Today through Friday Night: High pressure will continue to saunter eastward over Wisconsin and the western Great Lakes region today. Temperatures today will be a bit cooler owing to some continued cool air advection on northerly winds. On Friday, high pressure will retreat to the east and a cold front in association with a low pressure system over Lake Superior will move into the area. This cold front will be dry and rain is not expected, but cloud cover will be likely along the front during the late morning and into the afternoon hours. Winds on Friday will be quite breezy out of the south and southwest as well, as the pressure gradient will steepen between the low to our northwest and the retreating high pressure to the east.
253 AM CDT Thu Oct 8 2020 The main forecast concerns this morning revolve around an early week upper level trough and cold frontal passage, leading to a windy period and questions about thunderstorm potential.
Expect dry conditions tonight as high pressure remains in control across the region. but the latter half of the weekend will see rainfall dissipating, if not reverting to more of a diurnal afternoon thunderstorm trend in a warmer, tropical airmass into the beginning of the work week.
Warmer temperatures will also begin moving into the region, and based off latest trends, have sided towards higher end guidance.
However, energy coming ashore the Pacific NW should flatten the ridging over the Rockies/Plains by late in the work week. Thursday's highs should be warmer given that a milder airmass is expected to again advect into the region from the west.
Early this morning, broad upper ridging was in place over the Northern High Plains with North Dakota on the eastern slope. This wave will flatten the ridge and bring widespread cloud cover across much of western and central North Dakota through the afternoon. At the surface, a north to south oriented warm front will move across the west and central through the day. A cold front will push north to south overnight tonight, shifting the wind to out of the west. Behind the cold front, breezy northwest winds will develop Friday afternoon across portions of the central and into the Turtle Mountains and James River Valley. Highs will be cooler across the north, in the low to mid 60s.
458 AM MDT Thu Oct 8 2020 Upper air analysis shows weak ridging across the western half of the CONUS. Much warmer air will advect into the area today, with highs reaching well into the 80s across much of the lower elevations.
631 AM EDT Thu Oct 8 2020 High pressure centered over the area today will build slowly east offering dry weather and above normal temperatures through the end of the week. Low temperatures to range from the mid to upper 40s northeast to the lower 50s southwest.
600 AM CDT Thu Oct 8 2020 Key Messages: -Slightly warmer afternoon high in the lower to mid 80s.
/issued 514 AM CDT Thu Oct 8 2020/ Temperatures are mainly in the low to mid 50s across the area right now. Weak high pressure remains over the region with calm winds across the entire Mid-South at this hour. We will see a nice Fall day with highs in the lower 80s under mostly sunny skies.
Cold front will come through late tonight. Friday will be cooler, but remain 10-15 degrees above seasonal normals.
High pressure continues to weaken over the Great Basin while it slowly recedes east. Dry and warm conditions continue through today before an upper trough brings cooler temperatures to the region overnight tonight into Friday. A much stronger low pressure system will bring a cold front over the weekend, and may bring some valley rain and mountain snow to northern Nevada. Temperatures are a little warmer this morning than the past few mornings. A Pacific low pressure system will approach the California coast and move within 250 miles of Los Angeles by Friday evening.
646 AM CDT Thu Oct 8 2020 Short term forecast continues to show no rain in the forecast with ridging building into the region. This will temper the high temperatures for today and Friday.
Weak upper ridging persists across the region through this forecast period.
648 AM CDT Thu Oct 8 2020 Upper level ridging continues to give us a string of warm days with highs in the 80s. A warm front will introduce higher dew points today, as wind gusts could get near 30 mph or so as low- level lapse rates increase.
521 AM CDT Thu Oct 8 2020 Upper level ridging continues to give us a string of warm days with highs in the 80s. A warm front will introduce higher dew points today, as wind gusts could get near 30 mph or so as low- level lapse rates increase.
942 AM CDT Thu Oct 8 2020 High pressure over the CWA will lead to mostly sunny skies today. Rain is possible overnight Thursday in eastern MN and northern WI, as a warm front lifts across the region. Showers and isolated thunderstorms are likely to come to an end by mid-morning Friday following the passage of the warm front. Warm air advection behind the warm front is expected to lead to high temps in the low to upper 70s. Tomorrow will definitely feel much more like late August than October! A dry cold front passes through the area Friday night.
402 AM CDT Thu Oct 8 2020 A warm front will lift north across the area today with winds becoming south as the front passes. Very dry air with upper single digit humidity values develop west of the trough (west of HWY 83) by Friday afternoon.
Early this morning, high pressure was sinking into the area from the north. This high pressures is expected to sink more into the area today and will drive the short term weather. Discussion: High pressure makes for a quiet day today. Looking to the H85 cold front from yesterday, it is still essentially stalled out across the area.
High pressure over the area at 09z with light winds and temperatures in the 30s. But nonetheless winds tonight will be 12-25 mph keeping temps warmer with lows mid 40s to around 50. Friday will see low pressure move east into Manitoba with a cold front from the low moving thru the area midday and the afternoon shift the winds to the northwest. Very warm airmass SE ND and WC MN southward ahead of the front with highs around 80 in the far southern RRV with low 70s up to Grand Forks while a bit cooler toward Canadian border.
A longwave trough over the eastern Pacific will build a low amplitude ridge over the region on Friday. Highs will continue to run close to 10 degrees above normal while winds remain light and terrain driven with light breezes in the higher valleys and mountains during the afternoon.
544 AM CDT Thu Oct 8 2020 An upper level low was embedded within a ridge aloft over southwest OK early this morning.
A change is expected over the upcoming weekend, with wetter, cooler and breezy conditions.
Building high pressure, centered over the Upper Midwest, will support dry conditions today. With the forecast area on the eastern flank of high pressure, cold advection in northerly flow will result in slightly below seasonal temperature values for highs today. Tonight, clears skies will allow for some cooler than normal low temperatures tonight as well.
/issued 348 AM CDT Thu Oct 8 2020/ A weak inverted completely unproductive upper trough centered across the Red River Valley will eject northeast of the area with the approach of the next Hurricane to the central Gulf Coast.
/issued 242 AM CDT Thu Oct 8 2020/ Clear skies and warmer than normal temperatures will continue for Thursday, but a touch "cooler" compared to the previous few days as a weakness in the ridge is apparent via WV satellite and accompanying upper air analysis. This will promote slightly lower heights with temps about 3-5 degrees cooler than yesterday. The setup is short-lived however, as the trough to the east kicks towards the Lower Mississippi valley and heights rebound ahead of an impending long wave trough entering the PAC coast. The impact on the trough couple will establish a persistent SW flow regime aloft, allowing for increased downsloping over west TX and SE NM.
East to southeast flow remains in place across the area this morning from a combination of high pressure to the north and Hurricane Delta to the west over the Gulf of Mexico. Mid-level ridging over the peninsula and associated subsidence leading to drier conditions below 500mb will favor mainly isolated showers/storms this afternoon with slightly greater coverage across parts of the Nature Coast. Also favored will be continued warmth, with highs in the low 90s and record high temps within reach for a few locations.
514 AM CDT Thu Oct 8 2020 Temperatures are mainly in the low to mid 50s across the area right now. Weak high pressure remains over the region with calm winds across the entire Mid-South at this hour. We will see a nice Fall day with highs in the lower 80s under mostly sunny skies.
Quiet conditions to start the morning as the region is wedged between a mid level ridge over the front range and a cutoff low across OK lifting mid level moisture into southeast KS. This low level moisture coinciding with weak winds may once again allow for patchy dense fog to form this morning through sunrise, especially south of Interstate 70 where isolated, low lying areas could drop to a quarter mile. After the record warm day yesterday, temps near 925 mb or at the top of the inversion layer this morning are slightly cooler at around 21-22C as winds are more backed to the southeast in the afternoon, increasing between 10 and 20 mph sustained. Far eastern Kansas may see slightly cooler temps in the middle 80s as cloud cover increases as the upper trough passes through MO.
Decent radiational cooling overnight is resulting in a cool start to this morning with temperatures to dipping into the low/mid 40s and some locations in the upper 30s. Post frontal cooler airmass lingers across Michigan through peak heating and helps hold high temperatures this afternoon in the 60s.
Rain chances will diminish by this evening over land areas, but will increase across the Atlantic waters north of the Cape into the overnight, as the pressure gradient tightens ahead of high pressure building southeast off of the Carolina coast. Winds becoming easterly around 5-10kts this afternoon, then around 10kts late this evening and overnight as the pressure gradient tightens ahead of high pressure building SE into the Atlantic off of the Carolina coast.
649 AM CDT Thu Oct 8 2020 A warm front will lift north across the area today with winds becoming south as the front passes. Very dry air with upper single digit humidity values develop west of the trough (west of HWY 83) by Friday afternoon.
Looking aloft, we are under the influence of a mid level ridge that is pinched between Delta and a TUTT currently sitting south of eastern Cuba. Thanks to the mid level ridge plus a pocket of drier air passing through the region, these showers are shallow and relatively short-lived. Given the ridge aloft and the dry air, shower potential will be highly limited for this afternoon.
1045 AM EDT Thu Oct 8 2020 Large high pressure will build into the Great Lakes and northeast today and tonight.
951 AM EDT Thu Oct 8 2020 High pressure centered over the area today will build slowly east offering dry weather and above normal temperatures through the end of the week. Low temperatures to range from the mid to upper 40s northeast to the lower 50s southwest.
A low pressure system will cool temperatures below normal Friday through the weekend with increased winds. High cloud cover may be on the increase Friday due to a closed upper low moving south along the coast. A closed low is expected to pinch off the trough on Thursday and dive southeast well offshore of the Bay Area on Friday.
/Issued 253 AM CDT Thu Oct 8 2020/ The main forecast concerns this morning revolve around an early week upper level trough and cold frontal passage, leading to a windy period and questions about thunderstorm potential.
540 AM EDT Thu Oct 8 2020 Large high pressure will build down from the northern Plains States.
540 AM CDT Thu Oct 8 2020 Quiet across the area early this morning as high pressure was building in from the Northern Plains/MN. with the exception of a few cold spots in the bog areas of central WI which were in the lower 30s. Another quiet day on tap for today as the area of high pressure drifts overhead. Warm air advection kick in tonight on the backside of the departing high an in advance of low pressure moving along the US/Canadian border. A trailing cold front from that low along the US/Canadian border looks to come through dry Friday night.
This front is still oozing southwestward due to weak pressure rises upstream associated with a high pressure center in the Upper Midwest. There remains a lag of a few hours behind the front before the slightly cooler and more noticeably drier (lower dewpoints) air filters into the area, but this should continue slowly into the area through early this morning. The end result is for a cooler and less humid day for most of the area, but the difference is more distinct across our Illinois counties. The old frontal boundary tonight should quickly retreat north of the CWA as a warm front as weak leeside cyclogenesis commences across the Plains.
Timing of the trof passage and amount of mixing along with how much wind is available will keep winds mostly below 15 mph.
Temperatures this morning are hovering in the 50s and lower 60s, with little change expected for the low temperatures.
333 PM CDT Thu Oct 8 2020 (Issued 333 PM CDT Thu Oct 8 2020) Tonight and Friday: High pressure continues to move eastward across Wisconsin this evening. As the high pressure retreats to the east, a low pressure system will move eastward over Lake Superior on Friday. The associated cold front will move through the area Friday, but it will be dry so rain is not expected. The pressure gradient between the retreating high pressure and incoming low pressure will tighten resulting in gusty southerly winds during the day tomorrow.
Cold front passes through this evening to briefly bring cooler temperatures and more modest humidities, though some off- and- on downslope winds tomorrow will keep temperatures in the 70s, so although not as dry or hot as today, still expect above normal temperatures, and humidities dropping into the teens.
/issued 725 AM EDT Thu Oct 8 2020/ Weak upper ridging persists across the region through this forecast period.
This will help keep overnight lows 10-15 degrees warmer than they were early this morning. Again, temps could be warmer than the 150 October 9ths preceding this one. Weak cold front slips south on Friday afternoon, turning the winds to the north.
With the bands of heavier rains moving in tonight through early Fri morning ahead of Delta's landfall in southern LA, cannot argue with the lower CIGS/MVFR overnight into tomorrow. Did also keep with the higher winds and gusts from 30-36kts for GLS by 05Z tonight through tomorrow morning. Periods of showers and thunderstorms on the periphery of Delta should reach coastal areas tonight and it looks like there will once again be a very tight precipitation gradient with the higher rain chances to the east and much lower rain chances to the west.