Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
734 AM EDT Wed May 31 2017 A broad upper level trough will maintain daily chances of showers and thunderstorms, save for Thursday, through the weekend. Dry conditions will return tonight as high pressure builds back in over the forecast area.
655 AM CDT Wed May 31 2017 Isolated showers and thunderstorms over central Illinois early this morning are occurring along a weak cold front that extends from central Illinois into northern Missouri. A better chance for development will occur late this evening and overnight when the low level moisture convergence increase over the Plains which will increase the chance that a MCS will develop over eastern KS/western MO that will eventually move across central Missouri late tonight.
The freezing level is lower and 500mb temp is cooler around -10C. The main threat will be downbursts, especially with the higher downdraft CAPE values noted on the sounding, and isolated severe storms are possible.
Axis of high pressure ridge was nudging north towards the central peninsula. No wind/sea problems as high pressure ridge axis over the waters produces a southerly wind flow 10 knots or less and seas 2 feet or less.
Brownsville radar currently shows some activity upstream across the higher terrain of northeast Mexico and some developing convection south of Brownsville and the nearshore Gulf waters. Low to mid level moisture will increase across the CWA this morning into the afternoon as a 500mb trough moves over west Texas. Brownsville radar currently shows some weakening convection across the higher terrain of the Mexican state of Nuevo Leon.
510 AM MDT Wed May 31 2017 Upper ridging is strengthening across the central to northern Rockies and building into the northern plains this morning with northwest flow over the CWA. Both upper level and thermal ridge will cross the CWA Thursday bringing temps well into the 80s across the CWA.
653 AM CDT Wed May 31 2017 Upper trough which has had a strong grip on out weather the last few days will continue to relax eastward today as Rockies ridge nudges toward the Northern Plains. Mixing just ahead of the ridge axis could allow some 10 to 15 mph winds around SW MN and the IA Great Lakes through midday, but likely as strong as would see.
1046 AM MDT Wed May 31 2017 Interestingly, dewpoints continue to slowly rise across far southeast Wyoming and western Nebraska with readings in the lower to middle 40s late this morning. Upper ridge axis will slip slowly east across the CWA today through Thursday boding for warm temperatures with 7H temps warming to about 7-8C.
The low level moisture supply remains high, well above average for this time of year, as light to moderate southeast winds gain footing. Brownsville radar currently shows some activity upstream across the higher terrain of northeast Mexico and some developing convection south of Brownsville and the nearshore Gulf waters. Low to mid level moisture will increase across the CWA this morning into the afternoon as a 500mb trough moves over west Texas. Brownsville radar currently shows some weakening convection across the higher terrain of the Mexican state of Nuevo Leon.
VFR CU field has popped up across the area with influence of cold air aloft associated with broad trough across the Great Lakes/Upper Midwest. CU will diurnally dissipate with surface/850 ridging becoming more dominant overnight into Thursday. Models show a weak trough sagging south which may result in a more slack gradient with some easing of winds during the afternoon, so will hold off on a Small Craft for that northern zone. Vorticity maximums continue to rotate through WI, around the large low pressure area over Ontario, Canada. High temps in the lower 70s over much of srn WI with just enough wly flow to prevent lake breeze development. Clearing for tnt with light winds as high pressure approaches from the northern Great Plains. Forecast confidence is high: High pressure will bring pleasant weather to southern Wisconsin on Thursday.
Convective parameters favor the West Central mountains this afternoon where the highest instability and shear will be located thus this area is expected to see the majority of thunderstorm activity today. Cold front exits the region Thursday morning with the upper level trough moving over the region by Thursday afternoon for more showers. SE Oregon and SW Idaho reside within a southwest flow aloft, between an upper ridge to our east and an upper trough to our west. The upper trough will continue to push eastward tonight and will reach our area on Thursday. Showers will increase coincident with the upper trough, with a chance of showers in the valleys and showers likely in the mountains Wednesday afternoon.
737 AM EDT Wed May 31 2017 A zonal flow aloft will be over the region for the rest of the week, with some weak troughing associated with a stalled front. The high- resolution models indicate little coverage. The guidance consensus supports pops 10 to 20 percent with the higher values in the southeast section closer to deeper moisture.
1035 AM MDT Wed May 31 2017 Interestingly, dewpoints continue to slowly rise across far southeast Wyoming and western Nebraska with readings in the lower to middle 40s late this morning. Upper ridge axis will slip slowly east across the CWA today through Thursday boding for warm temperatures with 7H temps warming to about 7-8C.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 84 61 86 62 / 40 10 10 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 81 60 82 63 / 40 10 10 10 Oak Ridge, TN 82 60 83 60 / 40 10 10 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 79 57 79 58 / 30 20 10 10.
657 AM EDT Wed Jun 14 2017 High pressure will build south from Canada today through tonight and will shift offshore on Thursday.
303 AM CDT Wed Jun 14 2017 Upper low is currently lifting across western ND/eastern MT with the impulse that helped generate storms Tue afternoon/evening lifting over west-central KS. At the surface, the cold front extends from north central Nebraska into western portions of KS. This will push a cold front south, moving through the forecast area Sat night into Sun morning.
An upper low located off the coast of Canada is rotating in waves of moisture to the PACNW, mainly on Thursday.
1127 PM MDT Tue Jun 13 2017 Cooler conditions and northwest flow aloft will continue through tonight with about a 5-7 degree warm-up on Wednesday.
Another slight chance for storms may then again be possible towards midnight along the cold front as enhanced upper level dynamics develop near the left exit region of an upper level jet. On Wednesday the surface cold front is forecast to be located from northwestern Oklahoma to south central Kansas. Some late day convection will be possible along a cold front that will be located in south central Kansas at 0z Thursday. After this slight chance a brief period of dry and warmer weather will briefly return early this weekend.
A vertically stacked area of low pressure will be near southeast Saskatchewan or southwest Manitoba by Wednesday morning. It will be a tad cooler near Lake Superior. There will be increasing instability into the afternoon as the low lifts north through Manitoba and its occluded/cold front moves into the western forecast area. Drier and a bit cooler air will filter into the Northland Thursday amidst breezy westerly flow.
339 AM CDT Wed Jun 14 2017 An upper low is over North Dakota/southern Canada while upper ridging is over the southcentral and southeast parts of the country. Upper ridging will be across the southwest and southcentral parts of the country on Thursday. Temperatures will remain hot with highs a degree or two warmer than today.
For tonight, somewhat of a complicated forecast as additional short wave troughs move through the region from west to east. Some of the high resolution models show two stronger waves affecting the region. Lows tonight will remain rather mild with lows in the upper 60s to the lower 70s. Highs for Thursday look to be a bit cooler with highs mainly in the upper 80s.
415 AM EDT Wed Jun 14 2017 High pressure builds into the region from southeastern Canada today into Thursday.
250 AM MDT Wed Jun 14 2017 Current surface analysis shows cold front over the far eastern Dakotas, with low pressure over northeast ND. Some of the short range convective models are showing isolated showers this afternoon from parts of northeast WY to the northern Black Hills area as steep mid level lapse rates develop and weak energy continues to wrap around the upper low to the north. Highs will range from around 70 over northeast Wyoming and the Black Hills to the low to mid 80s over south central SD.
512 AM EDT Wed Jun 14 2017 WV imagery and RAP analysis indicated a mid/upper level low over wrn North Dakota resulting cyclonic sw flow from the cntrl plains through the upper MS valley to wrn Lake Superior. At the surface, sse flow had increased through thregion ahead of a trough over the ern Dakotas and a warm front through sw WI. Looks like there's an outside shot at a stronger storm or two over the E Thu afternoon as a cold front moves through, but not expecting any severe storms.
Mid level ridge coincident with deep moisture remains in control of the weather pattern at the moment over the forecast area. While areas to the north will be allowed to warm into the lower 90s before storms develop later in the afternoon, not looking for much wet microburst potential. Tonight: The mid level ridge will begin retreating a bit during the evening into the overnight.
305 AM CDT Wed Jun 14 2017 Hot and humid summer-like conditions to persist today as high pressure aloft continues to stretch from the Great Lakes region southwest into the lower OH/MS Valley regions and TX. Afternoon temps rising back up into the lower half of the 90s will combine with sfc dew points from near 70 to the lower 70s to create heat index values in the upper 90s to near 100 in most locations.
These areas of high pressure will work to turn the wind from east to southeast today, to more southerly on Thursday. however, given the influence of the high, the Gulf sea breeze does not look to become very significant, and may have a hard time making away from the coastline. With the sea breezes acting as a trigger, as well as a weak trough at 500mb, some heavy showers and thunderstorms will be very possible through the weekend.
124 AM EDT Wed Jun 14 2017 Active weather across the western CWA has taken up time this afternoon, so will just hit the highlights here. With mid- level troughing and gradually increasing deep layer shear approaching from the west, strong to severe storms will be possible during the afternoon. will be a cold front sliding through the area Wednesday night into Thursday morning, west half, and during the afternoon hours east half. As the cold front moves into the eastern portions of the U. ; however, this will be dependent upon any lingering cloud cover and potentially cooler flow coming in across Lake Michigan.
North of this a large closed low off the coast of British Columbia extends a finger like trough through Washington and northern Montana which curls north into southeastern Saskatchwan. A weak standing ridge is beginning to form and cut through the trough over the front range of Montana and Alberta. Tonight through Thursday: As the standing ridge develops over the front range.
226 AM PDT Wed Jun 14 2017 Dry weather and a day to day warming trend will occur through the weekend as an upper level ridge of high pressure builds over California.
202 AM EDT Wed Jun 14 2017 A cold front moved south of Long Island early this Wednesday morning. High pressure will build into the area Wednesday.
156 AM EDT Wed Jun 14 2017 A cold front, will drop southward through the region this evening, with showers and thunderstorms ending by later tonight. Wednesday and much of Thursday look rain-free, and somewhat cooler, with high pressure becoming anchored along the New England coast. The environment is moist in the lower levels and unstable in general just ahead of the front (MLCAPE of 1500-2500 j/kg and PWAT's of 1. Wednesday-Wednesday night still look rain-free, with high pressure ridging southward from Ontario and Quebec.
There has been a little increase in high clouds as a weak low pressure trough is pushing east through Washington and Oregon this evening, but I don't expect much in the way of clouds until early Wednesday as westerly flow brings moisture across the region. Then more mid and high clouds spreading east as a weak ridge of high pressure moves through.
327 AM EDT Wed Jun 14 2017 Large Canadian high pressure will build toward the region through Thursday.
320 AM CDT Wed Jun 14 2017 Near term: recent rainfall has resulted in saturated conditions in the low levels. The upper pattern over the next few days shows an upper low lifting across North Dakota into souther Canada where it will sit and spin during the course of the short term. The cooler mid level temperatures, combined with winds shifting to the west, will result in favorable mixing conditions. This will also help mix out the low level humidity.
There is some warming through the mid levels and thus high temperatures are expected to be 5 degrees warmer than yesterday.
The upper level low that has been sitting over the region has drifted into the Florida panhandle this morning. high pressure anchored over the four corners has built across Texas and into Louisiana and this will be the major player over the next several days.
Isolated showers will linger into the morning before diminishing by the afternoon as the upper low responsible for our weather the last couple of days continues to gradually lift off to the north and east. Temperatures will max out in the low to middle 70s today with slightly warmer temperatures expected for Thursday as heights build aloft.
This convection is not expected to persist through the night, so have kept the lower PoPs the same across the area after 06Z. A moist airmass will remain in place through the short term period as the region remains on the western edge of the subtropical ridge out in the Western Atlantic. Overnight lows will continue to be warm in the lower 70s.
408 AM EDT Wed Jun 14 2017 Active weather across the western CWA has taken up time this afternoon, so will just hit the highlights here. With mid- level troughing and gradually increasing deep layer shear approaching from the west, strong to severe storms will be possible during the afternoon. Looks like there's an outside shot at a stronger storm or two over the E Thu afternoon as a cold front moves through, but not expecting any severe storms.
323 AM EDT Wed Jun 14 2017 An offshore high/inland trough pattern will continue today with a weak front approaching from the north.
629 AM EDT Wed Jun 14 2017 High pressure builds into the region from southeastern Canada today into Thursday.
133 AM EDT Wed Jun 14 2017 Atlantic high pressure expected to extend across the area through mid week. An inland trough will develop late in the week as the high shifts further offshore into the Atlantic.
Retreating dryline seen in satellite imagery is moving west, with south and southeast surface winds to its east, while cold front is moving in from the northwest, bringing surface wind shift to west as it passes.
349 AM EDT Wed Jun 14 2017 High pressure will build south from Canada today through tonight and will shift offshore on Thursday.
A weak pressure trof at mid and high levels remains in place from the southeast to the central Gulf coast with clouds exhibiting weak cyclonic circulation. 0 inches coupled with the trof axis nearby and daytime instability sets the stage for what looks to be a repeat performance in the development of scattered to numerous showers and a few storms. Overnight lows in the lower to mid 70s.
High pressure over the area will produce dry conditions today.
Dry, chilly weather is expected tonight with high pressure in control.
With a good taste of July's "La Canicula" pattern of 500 mb high pressure ridge centered over north central Mexico (Coahuila/Chihuahua/Durango States) for the next 24 hours and beyond, the sensible aviation weather is simple, overall. Surface features for this particular Canicula ridge include a stationary high over the eastern Gulf with the west Texas through Sierra Madre trough and lowering daytime pressures (heat low) which will keep a summer version of the Valley Wind Machine rolling at all three terminals by day and a bit into the evening before laying down late at night.
Current air temperatures in Keys island communities range from the upper 70s to the lower 80s, with the cooler readings at locations recently wetted by rainfall. A deep layer mean ridge centered over the western North Atlantic governs the large-scale weather pattern, although this ridge is showing signs of weakening, as expected.
622 AM EDT Wed Jun 14 2017 Large Canadian high pressure will build toward the region through Thursday.
/issued 333 PM CDT Tue Jun 13 2017/ The forecast area finds itself between the semi-permanent sub- tropical upper ridge to our south and a pretty strong closed low over the northern Rockies. Mid and upper level southwesterly flow over the southern High Plains is helping the dryline mix eastward into the western part of the forecast area while east of the dryline healthy moisture exists indicated by surface dew point temperatures in the lower to middle 60s across the eastern half of the forecast area. The northern Rockies upper low will lift northeastward into the Prairie Provinces Wednesday, allowing the upper ridge to our south to expand northward. The ridge will amplify northward across the desert southwest during the weekend and expand eastward across Texas.
Several of the high res convective allowing models along with the ECMWF model suggest our best chance for organized convection will be tomorrow night as a cluster of storms develops to the north and propagates south- southeast across the forecast area.
Heights are falling slightly this morning as the upper level ridge retreats southward. At the surface, broad area of high pressure remains over the southeast and the Atlantic ocean. Synoptic flow starts to become slightly more southwesterly as the high pressure over the Atlantic shifts southward. Overnight lows will again be muggy in the low to mid 70s.
The low-level response will be a cold front that sweeps southward across the area this afternoon and evening. In fact the maximum lift is centered around -2 C resulting in drizzle as opposed to ice with surface temperatures below freezing. Increased the winds behind the cold front as the high pressure builds southward into Kansas in the morning through mid afternoon.
Temperatures will be a little warmer this afternoon, with highs in the 50s. A strong short wave and associated low/cold front will move across the area overnight. The bulk of the showers/thunderstorm activity will move east of the area by mid morning on Sunday as the cold front exits the area, but there will be some lingering showers through around lunchtime in the southeast.
Aloft, large-scale upper ridging off the West Coast is yielding increasing northwest flow aloft locally. The magnitude of surface moisture fields remain largely unimpressive with maximum dewpoints only in the low 40s F by Sunday morning, but model sounding data indicate rapid moisture advection through the column with saturated profiles below 500 hPa by this evening. This low-level trough/jet structure will shift east through Sunday morning and the highest confidence PoPs will remain closely tied to this area of forcing. As the H850 trough and deeper moisture exit Sunday, expecting rainfall to end west-to-east. A relatively strong cold front will approach from the north to end the period with high pressure building in behind the front; however, the delayed arrival of this colder air will negate winter precip chances Sunday morning.
901 AM EST Sat Feb 3 2018 High pressure will build off to the east offering dry weather and a warming trend today. A cold front will cross the region later Sunday, changing the rain and snow over to snow.
422 AM MST Sat Feb 3 2018 A broad upper trough covers much of the CONUS, and a weak wave is passing over WY. Some freezing rain may be occurring as well.
With the low/trough prog to shift north this this morning and with a minor H5 s/w trough prog to advect east across TX today.
511 AM CST Sat Feb 3 2018 High pressure that brought the cooler air is sliding off the mid- Atlantic states this morning as warm air is pushing the old cold front northward into the cntrl Tx coast as a warm front. The warm front in cstl Texas is expected to stall along the I-10 corridor tmrw. But another cold front making the coast during the aftn hours.
Clouds will increase this evening as the next low pressure system approaches. In the upper levels a broad trough is over the Central and Eastern U. Cloud cover will begin to increase late this afternoon as the next low pressure system begins to develop over the Gulf near TX/LA.
Today is probably the driest day of the next few days with the strong winds helping to erode much of the lower level clouds. Showers will remain possible over portions of the high country into Sunday. Best chances are across the high country where rain/snow is likely.
347 AM MST Sat Feb 3 2018 A cold front will move southward through Central MT today, stalling out around Interstate 90 tonight.
Deep moisture will spread in ahead of a cold front later today and rain will become widespread tonight, mainly after 06z, as this front advances closer.
Light snow is beginning to spread into the western CWA within region of broad lift out ahead of the low pressure system located over western SD. Soundings do still support some brief freezing rain or sleet so will leave mention of this in the forecast. It still appears snow accums will be light/minimal over much of the CWA, with the highest amounts around an inch or slightly more across the far northeast CWA. Arctic high pressure will build in at the sfc on Sunday. Coupled with an upper trough that lingers over the region through mid week this combination will result in temperatures at or below average through the period. A few weak low pressure systems will clip through the region.
A strong upper level ridge will remain anchored off the West Coast.
936 AM EST Sat Feb 3 2018 In the wake of yesterdays front, slightly cooler and drier air continues to filter into the region. As high pressure nudges in from the north, expect light east winds to become a bit gusty this afternoon. Breezy offshore winds will linger into the early afternoon as high pressure nudges in from the north.
530 AM CST Sat Feb 3 2018 A cold front associated with a low pressure system will swing through the region Saturday, entering northeast Nebraska in the early afternoon, and exiting the CWA this evening. Warmer temperatures are expected in the southwesterly flow ahead of the front, especially in southeast Nebraska where highs in the lower 50s will be possible.
540 AM CST Sat Feb 3 2018 Warm front currently bisecting the local area, roughly north of RST/ONA over the Black River Falls, WI. The bulk of the chances/qpf is mostly along and north of the warm front - which presents the first forecast challenge. Low level jet/moisture transport playing a role here, interacting with the low/cold front. Some further extension southward with the pcpn likely as the low/cold front moves in during the evening. For amounts, the higher qpf should come today. The higher amounts west of the Mississippi River, especially north-east of the I-94 (upwards of 4" there).
1026 AM EST Sat Feb 3 2018 High pressure centered over the eastern Carolinas and VA this morning will eject eastward this afternoon as low pressure moves from the upper Plains into the western Great Lakes. As the low moves eastward on Sunday it will push a cold front through the region with widespread rainfall.
An upper level ridge will continue over the NE Pacific with northwest flow aloft across the Pacific Northwest. A few systems will ride over the upper ridge and give southwest Washington and a decent part of northwest Oregon some precipitation at times.