Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
604 PM EST Fri Nov 11 2016 VFR conditions are expected as high pressure settles through the area tonight and then south on Saturday. Light NNW winds will back to SW in return flow around exiting high pressure center, but remain 10 knots or less in general. Rather sharp west-east aligned trough/thermal trough (-5 C to -7 C at 850 mb) quickly tracking south through southern Lower Michigan this afternoon. Set up for a very nice weekend (clear skies) as the upper level ridge axis extends from the upper level ridge expanding into the Plains.
Sprinkles with the cold front have essentially exited the southeastern reaches of the CWA early this evening with a dry night in store. Fries High pressure will remain in control through the rest of the weekend, bringing quiet weather.
Ridge axis does not sag south of the area until after 12Z so light boundary layer winds expected much of the night. Some patchy light freezing fog likely to form in low and susceptible areas along with widespread frost. Otherwise, patchy light freezing fog will be possible in low and susceptible areas late tonight, but not enough confidence to add to 06Z TAFs at this point. Winds continue to diminish rapidly as high pressure ridge approches.
537 PM CST Fri Nov 11 2016 Still expect some middle to high clouds as the upper level low remains over the southwest. The persistent upper level low pressure system to our west is finally beginning to weaken and open back into a trough. High-res models are showing fairly widespread coverage in forecasted radar reflectivity but the lower and mid levels of the atmosphere will be too dry for much of it to reach the ground. Another trough can currently be seen pushing through the upper mid-west and this trough will continue to move south and send another frontal boundary through the CWA tomorrow morning.
Large scale pattern features a closed low at 500 mb over southern New Mexico and a ridge from off the southern California coast up into Montana. At the surface, a large area of high pressure extended from eastern Colorado into northern Minnesota. Cooler air was spilling into the eastern United States in association with northerly winds east of the high pressure. That high will slide southeast tonight and Saturday as a lee trough develops from the western Dakotas into eastern Colorado. The airmass locally is cool and dry, with dewpoints in the lower and mid 30s.
High pressure will move off to the east overnight with a south/southwest wind component and a pressure gradient peaking around 14mb across the state by morning.
Confidence High Models in good agreement with timing of high pressure passage later tonight followed by increasing return southwest flow Saturday across the region. Otherwise highs will recover over the area by afternoon with H850 temperatures warming to the lower teens over far northwest sections and near 8-9C in central and southeast areas. Most of the warming aloft will not mix to the surface though afternoon highs may still end up warmer than guidance due to the relatively dry conditions the past week and along with that a current dry airmass.
WV imagery shows the persistent upper trough remains centered over West Texas and Southeast New Mexico, but this feature is poised to begin moving east in around 24 hours.
This general pattern with prevail into the long holiday weekend as the upper level ridge out west begins to build back into the region.
/issued 338 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2016/ (Tonight and Friday) The center of the upper ridge, which is currently over eastern New Mexico, will migrate southeast across West Central Texas on Friday. Low temperatures tonight will mainly be in the lower 70s, with a few upper 60s possible in the river valleys across southern counties. High temperatures on Friday will be mainly in the lower and middle 90s. (Friday Night through Thursday) Upper level high will be centered over the Southwest US for the weekend, creating northwest flow across the area.
In addition the western periphery of the subtropical ridge extends into the Florida peninsula.
838 PM EDT THU JUN 30 2016 Scattered showers and thunderstorms are likely Friday into Friday evening as a cold front moves through the northeast.
The combination of mostly clear conditions and near-calm winds is enabling rapid cooling after sunset, with more rural locations having already fallen into the lower 70s. Short-range models continue to support low temperatures in the low-mid 60s.
612 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2016 19z/2pm surface analysis shows a cold front extending from central Wisconsin southwestward to Nebraska. Rain chances will come to an end from northwest to southeast after midnight as the cold front settles south of the area by early Friday morning.
Isolated convection will be possible on Fri across the VCT area, but will not mention in the TAF at this time given the low probability. Expect the building upper ridge/additional drying/limited or lack of surface forcing to preclude convection Friday Night.
The 19z MSAS surface analysis placed the cold front from eastern Upper Michigan southwest through central Wisconsin to central Iowa. Behind all this activity was a large area of high pressure building southeast into the Northern Plains. The broken line of convection along the cold front will exit eastern WI early this evening. The high pressure is forecast to build into the Western Great Lakes region on Friday, providing for mostly sunny skies/modest northwest winds/less humidity and below normal temperatures. Look for max temperatures to range from around 70 degrees north and near Lake MI, to the lower to middle 70s south.
The surface reflection was low pressure over northwest MO. There is an inverted trough to the north of this system through western IA, and a cold front extending northeast through central and eastern IA. Latest objective analysis indicates that the combination of residual boundary layer moisture along the inverted trough coupled with seasonably steep mid-level lapse rates has allowed for around 1000-1500 j/Kg of MLCAPE this afternoon.
High pressure will be propagating across the region through the period. Clouds and winds will dissipate this evening with loss of solar and approaching high pressure. but full solar should expect Max Temps in the low- mid 70s.
620 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2016 Sharp H5 Trof makes Great Lakes passage tonight. It will drive a cold front across the PAH FA, with associated showers/storms, currently seen across central ptns IL-MO, accompanying its passage.
The latest observations have come in with temperatures in the low to mid 80s and dewpoints in the 50s to low 60s. Despite the increased cloud cover and weak front, temperatures are expected to be slightly warmer tomorrow afternoon, and it should feel much muggier as dewpoints climb well into the 60s.
High pressure remains in place over eastern New Mexico this evening while a weak trough continues to make its way through Utah. The trough axis currently extends from far northeast through southwest Utah and is slowly moving to the southeast. Scattered to numerous showers continue along and southeast of this trough axis where PWATs remain in excess of 1 inch, while generally isolated to scattered showers exist in the somewhat more stable and drier air to the northwest. The trough axis will push into southeast Utah tomorrow, focusing convection more in that general area. In addition, flow veering to northwesterly behind the trough axis will favor SEwd propagation of storms down flash-flood prone drainages, hence the Flash Flood Watch in place across southeast Utah.
mainly at the low levels for North GA but deep layer moisture in place for all of central GA. Mixed layer CAPE in excess of 3000 J/KG over portions of east GA at this hour and well over 2000 along and south of the trough axis. Deese The GFS continues to advertise a strong mid level trough to move through the Tennessee valley through the afternoon on the 4th. It will depend on timing as to whether we see washout conditions for the 4th festivities or it is more scattered in nature ahead of the trough.
An inverted trough remains across this area producing scattered storms. Chattanooga Airport, TN 64 94 71 91 / 10 10 10 30 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 64 90 68 87 / 10 10 10 20 Oak Ridge, TN 62 89 69 86 / 10 20 10 20 Tri Cities Airport, TN 61 87 61 85 / 10 20 10 20.
/issued 933 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2016/ Fairly persistent conditions with the upper ridge resulting in 9 pm temps falling into the upper 70s and lower 80s. This general pattern with prevail into the long holiday weekend as the upper level ridge out west begins to build back into the region.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 64 94 71 91 / 10 10 10 30 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 64 90 68 87 / 10 10 10 20 Oak Ridge, TN 62 89 69 86 / 10 20 10 20 Tri Cities Airport, TN 61 87 61 85 / 10 20 10 20.
The cloud cover did burn-off over San Francisco and parts of the Monterey Bay Region (more so compared to yesterday) allowing for slightly warmer temperatures compared to 24 hours ago across these locations. Inland temperatures cool slightly Friday into the 4th of July Holiday Weekend as the upper level ridge aloft weakens and mid/upper level troughing deepens along the West Coast. SFO Bridge Approach. Gusty northwest winds will continue over portions of the coastal waters as high pressure remains off the coast. high pressure will weaken thursday evening bringing lighter winds to the inner coastal waters and improving sea conditions for the weekend.
Add to this weak remnants of an upper low expected to move into the Four Corners area tomorrow, and we all the makings for some thunderstorms which could produce heavy rainfall in some of the most flash flood prone terrain within our CWA. All of this cloud cover and showers/thunderstorms has resulted in temperatures this afternoon generally 5 to 10 degrees F cooler than yesterday across eastern UT and western CO. Max temperatures on Friday should be even cooler, and will likely be about 10 degrees F below normal in most areas.
1004 PM EDT THU JUN 30 2016 High pressure will move over the region tonight and be followed by an approaching cold front on Friday.
1242 AM EDT FRI JUL 1 2016 Weak high pressure will build over the region tonight then move east on Friday. A warm front will cross the area Friday night.
19z/2pm surface analysis shows a cold front extending from central Wisconsin southwestward to Nebraska. Rain chances will come to an end from northwest to southeast after midnight as the cold front settles south of the area by early Friday morning.
So, focused the highest POPs after 06z, with only slight chances before then.
It is unclear exactly how things will evolve with the convection out to the west on the high Plains. Have lowered temps near the Kansas border down a degree or so as slightly cooler air has settled in those locations.
Expect cooler and drier air to move into the area behind this cold front.
854 PM EDT THU JUN 30 2016 Dry conditions overnight are expected before a cold front increases rain chances for Friday. High pressure will bring dry and mild weather through the holiday weekend.
Isolated thunderstorms again this evening near the NV/ID border but clouds will decrease overnight and Friday morning will be cooler than this morning. Weak short wave trough passing by to our north will bring slightly lower daytime highs Friday as well.
To our west, upper ridging will limit amount of convection but a few weak storms are possible with diurnal heating. Temps Friday will be a few degrees warmer than today with highs in the mid 80s to lower 90s.
701 PM EDT THU JUN 30 2016 High pressure over the mid atlantic states will shift to the east coast on Friday. Meanwhile a cold front over the upper Mississippi Valley will move southeast across the area tomorrow.
Weak High pressure over the Ohio Valley kept skies mostly sunny today as temperatures remained below seasonal norms with dry dew points in the 50s. Showers with a few claps of thunder in southern Illinois were well ahead of a weak cold front set to enter the area by Friday evening. There's an outside chance some of these could hold together by dawn Friday north and west of Louisville, but 20 POPs are on the high end.
920 PM EDT THU JUN 30 2016 Weak high pressure will build over the region tonight then move east on Friday. A warm front will cross the area Friday night.
Have lowered temps near the Kansas border down a degree or so as slightly cooler air has settled in those locations.
High pressure ridge from southern New England to the Ohio valley will move on to the east as a cold front across Iowa and Wisconsin moves across Indiana late tonight and very early Friday.
Upper ridge builds directly overhead tonight, and then center shifts just east of area by Friday afternoon. although a few storms could sneak into the area right along the New Mexico border late in the afternoon with developing SW flow aloft on back side of upper ridge. Temps could creep up a degree or two with ridge overhead Friday and expected increased insolation.
736 PM EDT THU JUN 30 2016 Scattered showers and thunderstorms are likely Friday into Friday evening as a cold front moves through the northeast.
Templer Previous Discussion: An upper level ridge currently resides over northeast Montana which is lending to warm and dry weather conditions.
Otherwise, have trended twd the cooler guidance for temps tonight. This area continues to be on the srn edge of the higher amounts. Tilly Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will affect mainly northeast and central Missouri as well as west central Illinois this evening ahead of a cold front. The cold front currently over central Iowa is expected to move south tonight and pass through the terminal between 06Z and 08Z This should end any additional chance for thunderstorms.
Surface analysis this afternoon places a weak cold front stretching from southeast Kansas through northwest Missouri.
Weak upper troughs will bring a slight chance of showers at times. A weak cold front and upper level trough will move inland on Friday for a chance of showers, mainly along the coast.
Temperatures will trend a little above normal tonight, with lows in the lower to middle 70s.
/issued 250 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2016/ SHORT TERM (Now through Friday night): Upper-level high pressure currently centered over New Mexico will exert an increasingly dominant effect over Deep South Texas over the next 36 hours as the high center migrates toward NE Texas. Although isolated showers and thunderstorms have formed early this afternoon along and just behind the sea-breeze front, appears that overall the area is already under the influence of subsidence and drying aloft on the front side of the upper ridge. Afternoon temps in the Lower and Mid Valley rise to the mid-upper 90's.
Current temps in the low 80s/upper 70s will continue to sink to the low 70s/upper 60s by Friday sunrise. /issued 412 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2016/ A nice dry weekend is in store as the region is situated under anomalously dry air situated over the northeast portions of our region and into the lower Mississippi Valley. Expect with dry conditions tonight and surface ridging building in tonight, expect a cool night with lows dropping even into the upper 60s. Did not go as cool as some of the MOS due to dewpoints likely staying up overnight but still a little cooler in the E/NE. Expect a warming and dry trend through through the weekend as the trough over the Great Lakes quickly moves east tonight, helping to push the trough axis to the east of our area.
610 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2016 Remnants of convection in northwest Iowa behind a departing cold front will scoot south of our forecast area by late this afternoon. In the cold fronts wake, chilly and dry high pressure will takeover tonight, leaving a light northerly wind and clear skies. The high pressure system will move eastward on Friday into central MN and central IA. Warm front and southern stream wave push into the central Plains this weekend, however the latest model runs have trended these features further south, closer to the Nebraska and Kansas border.
Meanwhile, looking at the mid levels around 700 mb, we are seeing moderate to strong warm air advection looking at the winds blowing perpendicular to the impressive 700 mb theta-e ridge axis.
High pressure located over the Ohio River Valley brought about mostly clear skies and light winds for most of the region, creating an overall pleasant afternoon.
/issued 203 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2016/ Upper level high pressure centered across eastern New Mexico will bring a mild and quiet night across west Texas and southeast New Mexico.
848 PM EDT THU JUN 30 2016 A pressure ridge will extend from the Atlantic westward into the Gulf of Mexico through the weekend. A weak pressure trough will linger in the forecast area. Overnight lows will generally be in the lower 70s. The models display lee-side troughing in the forecast area with surface ridging to the south. Expect thunderstorms mainly associated with heating and convergence into the trough or into a possible seabreeze front that may move well inland. The GFS and ECMWF display surface ridging extending from the Atlantic westward into the Gulf of Mexico through the medium-range period. The models keep a frontal zone mainly just north of the forecast area with lee-side troughing in the area.
A large high pressure ridge prevail over the Great Basin for the remainder of the week. The high will weaken over the weekend allowing for temperatures to lower to near normal. In addition, temperatures have been trending several degrees cooler than this time yesterday, at least north of Kern County, as the high pressure has begun to weaken. The high pressure will further weaken and allow temperatures to lower a little more on Friday while an upper level disturbance moves over northern California.
High pressure will continue to drop south from Canada across central and eastern North Dakota. Meanwhile, low pressure in the lee of the northern Rockies will begin to push east late tonight and could bring an isolated shower or thunderstorm to far western ND by morning. Current surface analysis places cold front dropping through the upper midwest into the central plains with high pressure dropping near the Saskatchewan/Manitoba border into North Dakota. Upper level analysis places low near James Bay with ridge over the Rockies. On Friday, a short wave gradually makes its way through the upper ridge bringing low thunderstorm chances to portions of western North Dakota. Temperatures will be a bit warmer as upper ridge pushes a bit towards the east, though readings over most locations will be a tad below normal.
Freezing level was at 16,200 feet and the -20C level at 26,700 feet with the wet bulb zero just under 15,000 feet. Mean wind through the lower layers was 5 knots or less. /issued 322 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2016/ Current synopsis shows broad upper trough over the eastern third of the country and ridge to the west. The local CWA is on the sw cusp of the trough but ridge is building in from the west/northwest.
A Canadian high pressure will slide southeastward across the region tonight through Friday. This high presssure will bring cool and dry conditions to the CWA with lows tonight falling into the 40s. Highs on Friday will be slightly warmer than today.
Remnants of convection in northwest Iowa behind a departing cold front will scoot south of our forecast area by late this afternoon. In the cold fronts wake, chilly and dry high pressure will takeover tonight, leaving a light northerly wind and clear skies. The high pressure system will move eastward on Friday into central MN and central IA. Warm front and southern stream wave push into the central Plains this weekend, however the latest model runs have trended these features further south, closer to the Nebraska and Kansas border.
631 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2016 High pressure will continue to drop south from Canada across central and eastern North Dakota. Meanwhile, low pressure in the lee of the northern Rockies will begin to push east late tonight and could bring an isolated shower or thunderstorm to far western ND by morning. Current surface analysis places cold front dropping through the upper midwest into the central plains with high pressure dropping near the Saskatchewan/Manitoba border into North Dakota. Upper level analysis places low near James Bay with ridge over the Rockies. On Friday, a short wave gradually makes its way through the upper ridge bringing low thunderstorm chances to portions of western North Dakota. Temperatures will be a bit warmer as upper ridge pushes a bit towards the east, though readings over most locations will be a tad below normal.
848 PM EDT THU JUN 30 2016 Dry conditions overnight are expected before a cold front increases rain chances for Friday. High pressure will bring dry and mild weather through the holiday weekend.
1012 PM EDT THU JUN 30 2016 High pressure in control through tonight. A high pressure keeps weather conditions dry under calm or light and variable winds. A cold front approaches from the west later on Friday.
937 PM EDT THU JUN 30 2016 High pressure is ridging across southern Florida as a mid-level trough moves into the eastern US to the west of the state.
1047 PM MDT THU JUN 30 2016 A high pressure ridge aloft extending from the Desert Southwest north across the Great Basin into the Northern Rockies will pump subtropical moisture north. Friday Night Through Thursday The high pressure ridge will slowly shift east and will be pushed south by a series of pacific low pressure troughs moving across the Pacific Northwest and Northern Rockies.
802 PM EDT THU JUN 30 2016 High pressure in control through tonight. A high pressure keeps weather conditions dry under calm or light and variable winds. A cold front approaches from the west later on Friday.
Temperatures are currently in the lower to middle 90s with a decent cu field in place across the area. Low temperatures tonight will drop into the upper 60s across portions of the Hill Country and into the lower to middle 70s elsewhere. For tomorrow, the sub- tropical ridge axis will continue to push east and will be anchored across the southern plains. The warmer temps can also be expected for the area Friday night with lows in the 70s across the entire region.
933 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2016 Fairly persistent conditions with the upper ridge resulting in 9 pm temps falling into the upper 70s and lower 80s. This general pattern with prevail into the long holiday weekend as the upper level ridge out west begins to build back into the region.
1057 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2016 Sharp H5 Trof makes Great Lakes passage tonight. It will drive a cold front across the PAH FA, with associated showers/storms, currently seen across central ptns IL-MO, accompanying its passage.
Surface ridging will prevail through Friday morning.
Periodic chances for storms during the remainder of the TAF period will be handled with prob groups across the NE OK and NW AR sites as development will be focused in the vicinity of a cold front that will linger across the area through tomorrow. /Issued 257 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2016/ A cold front currently across central Kansas will try to move into northeast Oklahoma Tonight into Friday increasing the chances of showers and thunderstorms across areas north of Interstate 40 into Friday.
856 PM EDT THU JUN 30 2016 A pressure ridge will extend from the Atlantic westward into the Gulf of Mexico through the weekend. A weak pressure trough will linger in the forecast area. Overnight lows will generally be in the lower 70s. The models display lee-side troughing in the forecast area with surface ridging to the south. Expect thunderstorms mainly associated with heating and convergence into the trough or into a possible seabreeze front that may move well inland. The GFS and ECMWF display surface ridging extending from the Atlantic westward into the Gulf of Mexico through the medium-range period. The models keep a frontal zone mainly just north of the forecast area with lee-side troughing in the area.
755 PM EDT THU JUN 30 2016 A cold front will move across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley late tonight into Friday.
Perhaps an isolated stronger storm is possible with this low level jet feature.