Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
738 AM EDT Thu Apr 30 2020 [Through 12Z Friday] Line of showers associated with a cold front is moving through eastern portions of the forecast area, with wind shift from southwest to west with the frontal passage. Still expecting primarily westerly flow about 12G22KT by early afternoon, and diminishing tonight to about 5 kt or less as high pressure system builds in from the west.
1046 AM EDT Thu Apr 30 2020 A long-wave trough stretches south from the Great Lakes to the Yucatan Channel. Surface based convection continues to flourish ahead of the trough, tending to focus along the northwesterly wind shift. The Keys remain separated from the action, both because the low-level forcing is non-existent, and also because of warm/stable layers near 950 mb. First, can a cloud line develop along the islands as winds shift to the southwest? As winds shift to the southwest, the low-level thermodynamic profile should improve, noted by the cumulus streamers over and north of the western Cuban coast. A trough of low pressure is expected to pass through the coastal waters tonight. Beyond that, a weak area of high pressure centered over the northern Gulf Coast will slide gradually eastward then park over the Florida Peninsula.
510 AM EDT Thu Apr 30 2020 A large, stacked low pressure is centered along the IN/MI border early this morning. The rain with the storm system's cold front is departed well to our east, and although there are still some showers in our area, we are in a relative lull. The upper level low will track southeast through OH and WV, and should be off the Mid Atlantic coast by late Friday. Deep moisture under the upper low will pass through our area late today and tonight, with another increase in showers. As the upper low departs, surface ridging will build in from the west, and geopotential heights aloft will increase on Friday.
It will be mostly sunny and warm today thanks to an area of high pressure. Highs will be in the sixties for most areas with it cooler close to Lake Superior due to light off lake winds. Dry conditions will continue into tonight and far northeast Minnesota and northern Wisconsin will cool into the lower to middle thirties.
As the ridge continues to build over the area, subsidence will keep cloud coverage to a minimum throughout the day. On the leading edge of the WAA, some of the higher resolution guidance is suggesting we could see some scattered rain showers into Friday morning. Light rain showers remain possible into late Friday morning, shifting the focus towards the Buffalo Ridge in SW MN.
1251 PM EDT Thu Apr 30 2020 An upper low will bring light rain and gusty winds of 30 and 40 mph to the area today, with the strongest winds near Lake Michigan.
258 PM MDT Thu Apr 30 2020 Upper ridge is translating across the Rockies today with an upstream trough building into the the West. A similar scenario look on track for tomorrow though temperatures will be down just a but with the departure of the upper ridge.
Temperatures were in the lower 70s, humidity was low, and winds were light and variable. Clouds should increase as well thanks to an upper level trough moving out of the Rockies. Our western neighbors in the Sand Hills and Black Hills may see a few showers or thunderstorms in association with this trough this evening. Despite the passage of the trough aloft, temperatures should warm quickly on Friday under partly cloudy to mostly sunny skies. The main factor driving the warming will be northeastward advection of a warmer surface-700 mb air mass tonight and Friday. Afternoon highs are forecast to reach the low to mid 80s.
Pacific cold front will move across eastern Oregon around noon PDT, i. A cold front will pass through the region today, across SE Oregon mid-morning and entering SW Idaho around noon. The highest instability will set up over southern Idaho, in which storms will form over higher elevations and propagate eastward.
The morning low at McCarran was 81F today, which is substantially warmer than originally anticipated, due to the thick cloud cover. Made a few edits to the hourly temperature grids to accommodate for a warmer morning low. The strong ridge that brought record breaking heat to much of the area continues to shift east today.
STP Our ridge today will be broken down and pushed east as an upper trough moves into the Pacific NW. We will see a few different pieces of energy aloft ejected out ahead of the main trough affecting our region. Another additional piece of energy, and perhaps stronger, will move into our western zones later in the day as the upper trough edges into the inter- mountain Rockies.
High pressure will build in and bring dry weather for Friday.
Record to near record high temperatures today with High Fire Upper ridge over CO flattens some today as the next upper trof moves into the Pacific Northwest. Mid level warming will spread eastward helping temperatures rise into the lower 90s across the plains, with 70s and lower 80s across the valleys, and 50s and 60s for the mountains, which is well above normal. Winds decrease this evening, though with lee trough shifting eastward should see westerly downslope winds continue through the night. Expect highs in the mid 70s to lower 80s for the high valleys, and in the 80s to lower 90s across the plains.
/issued 940 AM CDT Thu Apr 30 2020/ Expect a nice day on tap for the Mid-South today with clear skies and highs in the lower 70s to upper 60s. High pressure is currently centered over the central Plains. As the high moves slowly east today, clouds should begin to exit the region leaving mostly sunny skies for the region. Temperatures will be cooler than yesterday with highs in the mid 60s to lower 70s. Tonight will see more dry weather as high pressure axis moves toward the Mississippi Valley. By Friday, winds will become more southerly allowing warmer air to move into the region. Temperatures will be warmer on Friday with highs in the mid to upper 70s.
1250 PM MDT Thu Apr 30 2020 Overview: An upper level ridge over the Rockies will progress eastward into the Central Plains. Today-Tonight: With a pronounced ridge aloft, expect temperatures far (+15 to +20F) above average. The aforementioned convection may propagate downstream into portions of the High Plains (north of I-70) Friday night -- though poor diurnal timing and the presence of a very dry low-to- mid level airmass suggest that convection will likely weaken with time/eastern extent.
329 PM EDT Thu Apr 30 2020 Current satellite imagery shows a shield of stratus and strato cu covering the region in the wake of a departing low pressure system. Currently have overnight lows falling into the low to mid 40s, however, depending on how fast we clear, could also see some temps across the region dip into the upper 30s with the aid of radiational cooling. The switch back to a warm regime will be flipped up Friday night, as a warm front pushes northeast across the region.
The ridge axis should continue to move eastward with time, allowing for better established southerly winds during the next several hours. The warming trend will continue into Friday (and beyond) as upper-level ridging strengthens, and southerly flow strengthens. Speaking of that southerly flow, lee cyclogenesis over the High Plains will lead to some breezy conditions on Friday.
This low pressure was leading to rain along the western shore of Lake Michigan and the windy conditions across our area. Winds should begin to slacken from west to east this afternoon as the low pressure moves east of the area. Lows in the 40s tonight will set the stage for warmer temps tomorrow.
Cold front will continue to push southeast of the I- 4 corridor, clearing east central Florida by this evening. Otherwise, rain chances will end into tonight with skies clearing as a drier/cooler airmass builds into the area behind the front.
(This evening through Friday) Calm conditions will continue tonight into Friday, with warmer temperatures overnight and an increasing southerly winds.
The ridge axis should continue to move eastward with time, allowing for better established southerly winds during the next several hours. The warming trend will continue into Friday (and beyond) as upper-level ridging strengthens, and southerly flow strengthens. Speaking of that southerly flow, lee cyclogenesis over the High Plains will lead to some breezy conditions on Friday. /NEW/ /Friday night and Beyond/ A broad and somewhat flattened ridge will be in place at the start of the period, providing dry conditions and above normal temperatures for much of the forecast period. The front will likely stall, however, just northwest of the CWA, keeping North and Central Texas in the warmer airmass.
Mid level ridging will continue to build over the area through the end of the week before flattening somewhat this weekend. Lee troughing will set up over the area while a mid level thermal ridge becomes nearly stationary from N.
125 PM CDT Thu Apr 30 2020 At 17Z, high pressure was centered over southeast TX with a ridge amplified into MN and south through the Bay of Campeche. This wind will subside greatly by 23-00Z as the ridge shifts east across the lower MS River Valley. Patchy valley fog should result late tonight with lows in the lower to middle 40s. On Friday, the 8h ridge will shift into middle TN and AL by midday.
With weak high pressure over east Texas, our surface winds will become southerly across most areas. Shallow moisture in the low-levels will mix out and with plenty of sunshine, we should see highs in the upper 80s to mid 90s.
SHORT TERM (Now through Friday Night): Tranquil weather will persist through much of the short-term period as a mid-level ridge axis progresses eastward over much of the central CONUS tonight and through the day on Friday. Lows tonight will be very similar to last night, perhaps a degree or two cooler, depending on how light winds get. Winds will be become breezy by midday tomorrow, especially along the coast, as high pressure across the Gulf interacts with low pressure in the Plains. With southeast winds returning and no cold fronts on the horizon, a warming trend will begin tomorrow, with highs reaching the low-mid 90s in most locations under sunny skies. Low level clouds will make a return by Friday night helping keep temperatures warm, with lows only reaching the low-mid 70s in most spots.
Light winds are expected tonight, with weak high pressure moving through. However, moisture in the low levels is rather meager per area forecast soundings. Mild temperatures into the middle 60s are expected inland on Friday, with onshore winds keeping areas near the lake cooler.
230 PM CDT Thu Apr 30 2020 Closed upper low/deep trough over the region continues very slow eastward track. Upper low currently on a southeast trajectory and will move off the Atlantic coast late Fri. Upper ridge will build in behind and bring us dry weather up into Sun. By early Sun, upper ridge breaking down and by this point a cold front is sitting just northwest. Shower activity may clip our easternmost zones as some backside trough energy attempts to provide some added lift.
1240 PM CDT Thu Apr 30 2020 (Today and tonight) Today will feature relatively tranquil weather as upper ridging begins to build into the area. Warming mid level temperatures will lead to highs about 5 to 10 degrees warmer today compared to yesterday.
This low has been visually impressive on the radar and visible satellite through the day. However by the afternoon dry air moves over the region with very modest surface ridging to allow for plenty of sun.
Meanwhile, the upper trough is lifting away with a few cu far to our NE.
Limited moisture will this system initially will hold chances of precipitation to slight chance (Friday before 9 AM) until deeper moisture develops as stronger WAA/isentropic lift associated with the 700MB trough begins Friday morning.
1221 PM CDT Thu Apr 30 2020 Aside from critical fire weather conditions in our western counties today (see fire weather section), the weather will be pretty quiet/dry with warmer temperatures and less wind than the past couple of days. An upper ridge axis will build onto the Central Plains. Have not deviated much from model ensembles for temps, but of interest is that MOS guidance has trended cooler for Friday highs (roughly five degrees cooler than current forecast) as the upper ridge breaks down.
Fairly tranquil conditions will persist tonight into tomorrow as ridging aloft continues to break down while moving out of the Colorado Rockies into the Central Plains. Despite a north- northeasterly flow developing in southwest/central Kansas behind an advancing trough axis, a fairly warm day remains likely Friday with H85 temperatures still up around the lower/mid 20s(C) by mid-afternoon. Look for afternoon highs up into the mid/upper 80s(F) in central Kansas to possibly the lower 90s(F) in extreme southwest Kansas.
Thermal axis moves over central and eastern Kansas with highs topping out in the low to mid 80s Friday.
Friday should start out sunny, with increasing middle and high clouds in the afternoon ahead of a warm front approaching from Minnesota.
111 PM CDT Thu Apr 30 2020 Updated for Aviation and Forecast Update High pressure building into the western Gulf Coast pushing north/northwesterly winds through the ArkLaMiss region. Though we are looking forward to being rain free for a few days, temperatures today will be on the cooler side (low 70s) for much of the CWA as we remain on the back end of an upper level trough. Skies will be clear today and will stay clear through tonight with expected low temperatures in the lower 50s area-wide.
HiRes data still showing instability showers developing later today across parts of our north, and especially along Plateau as deep upper trough across the region moves slowly east. Shower activity may clip our easternmost zones as some backside trough energy attempts to provide some added lift.
Reflectivity returns over northern Phillips county is moistening the lower atmosphere. 86 PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: Synoptic Setup: Forecast begins this morning with a ridge stretching from Arizona to Wyoming through eastern montana and cresting in central Saskatchewan. Farther west a large trough sets off the coast of the Pacific Northwest and British Columbia. Today through Friday: Conditions will start off dry but as the ridge axis exits into the Dakotas around Noon southwest flow will filter in allowing convective showers to form over the central Montana mountains.
313 PM CDT Thu Apr 30 2020 (Tonight and Friday) An upper level ridge will build across the area the next 24 hours, resulting in hot and dry conditions for Friday. A lee trough will also remain in place and strengthen some by tomorrow, with gusty south to southwest winds developing. Temperatures will be warmer tonight, as the low levels remain mixed and boundary layer moisture increases, with overnight lows in the upper 50s and lower 60s. Temperatures will be well above normal tomorrow, with afternoon highs ranging from the low to mid 90s over southeast sections, to the upper 90s across western portions of the Big Country and Concho Valley.
138 PM CDT Thu Apr 30 2020 Temperatures are on the rise across the region compared to yesterday, with highs expected to eclipse the lower 90s this afternoon across much of the forecast area.
Across southwest Indiana into the Owensboro area, a stubborn midlevel stratus deck continues to pivot around the backside of an area of low pressure centered near Toledo. Further to the west across southeast Illinois and much of western Kentucky, a shallow diurnal CU field has developed with temperatures in the lower to middle 60s. With stout ridging overhead, Friday will feature mostly sunny skies and warmer temperatures, with highs in the lower to middle 70s.
348 PM CDT Thu Apr 30 2020 High pressure seems to have settled into the area on northwest flow aloft, and dry weather should persist through the end of the weekend. Tomorrows high temperatures will be in the mid 70s and by the weekend temperatures will be in the lower 80s.
1158 AM CDT Thu Apr 30 2020 Upper-level ridging will spread east over the next two to three days while also deamplifying as it does. This upper ridge will help keep the weather fairly quiet to end the week and start the weekend.
A strong upper low was nearly stationary over southwest lower MI early this morning, with a narrow deformation zone and associated rain band in place over eastern WI. Mostly clear skies and light winds will prevail tonight, as a ridge of high pressure moves through.
Clear skies, VFR conditions expected to prevail through the TAF period as high pressure dominates over South Texas. VFR with clear skies as big dome of high pressure resides over the region. The high moves along the coast tonight with light northeast winds today turning east to southeast tonight. /issued 304 AM CDT Thu Apr 30 2020/ SHORT TERM (Now through Friday): 500mb ridge axis over New Mexico shifts over the state Friday.
140 PM EDT Thu Apr 30 2020 hours featuring relatively deep moisture, up to around 700 mb contained within the eastern states upper trough. Perhaps more widespread coverage of showers will develop tonight across northern areas as the next vort lobe pinwheels through the base of the upper trough. A slow moving upper level low is helping to lift a mass of bkn-ovc sc across the Great Valley this afternoon and this layer of clouds will be around well into the overnight period and beyond at tri and tys while it should scatter out a bit at cha later tonight.
Surface heating has allowed a few to scattered fair weather cumulus clouds to develop today, mainly over south central Alabama closer to the eastern conus upper trough. These northwest winds will continue through this afternoon, with high temperatures today likely having topped out in the low to mid 70s. The eastern conus upper longwave trough will continue to slowly weaken as it shifts eastward over the Western Atlantic through the period. A dry deep northwest wind flow will remain over much of the region tonight through Friday on the backside of the trough. A northwest wind around 10 knots with occasional higher gusts will occur this afternoon as a weak trof of low pressure approaches from the north.
The last day of April has been rather cool and blustery due to a deep upper trof over the eastern U. A nice warm-up on Friday as the upper trof pushes eastward off the Atlantic coast, with highs in the middle to upper 70s under mostly sunny skies.
1109 AM MDT Thu Apr 30 2020 Overview: An upper level ridge over the Rockies will progress eastward into the Central Plains. Today-Tonight: With a pronounced ridge aloft, expect temperatures far (+15 to +20F) above average. The aforementioned convection may propagate downstream into portions of the High Plains (north of I-70) Friday night -- though poor diurnal timing and the presence of a very dry low-to- mid level airmass suggest that convection will likely weaken with time/eastern extent.
Dry on Friday with highs in the 60s, though it will be cooler at the lake.
A few showers may develop Friday afternoon but weak high pressure should lead to near average temperature and a fairly nice day.
A cold front will push through the west around daybreak Friday, then into central North Dakota before noon. For tonight, chances for showers ahead of the cold front increase north and west, with a slight chance across central North Dakota.
Low-level wind shear is expected at the KCDS terminal tonight (40 knots in the lowest 500 ft AGL) due to an intensifying low-level jet, but will begin to dissipate near sunrise Friday.
1106 AM MDT Thu Apr 30 2020 WV/IR satellite imagery showed a upper level trough axis east of the MS River Valley, and a upper level ridge axis from the Four Corners to central MT. The ridge to the west shifts east into the High Plains, with the 700mb thermal ridge over southeast WY and western NE Panhandle. A Pacific cold front moves into southeast WY Friday afternoon. Temperatures will be slightly cooler, but still above normal.
259 PM CDT Thu Apr 30 2020 High pressure will shift across the area tonight, bringing lighter winds and clear skies. Warmer temperatures will overspread the region on Friday as southerly winds begin to develop.
1052 AM MDT Thu Apr 30 2020 Upper ridging across the central to northern Rockies has shifted eastward into the northern Great Plains. A weak trough is moving into the Pacific Northwest, with a secondary trough crossing the northern Rockies. Low level thermal ridge near the upper ridge axis is pushing into the CWA at this time. Temps are expected to reach the 80s across many locations, but upper level clouds moving in from the west could end up keeping temps a few degrees cooler than forecast. Temperatures on Friday will be cooler, with highs in the upper 60s to upper 70s.
301 PM EDT Thu Apr 30 2020 The cold front is about half way through the area this afternoon, with just a few showers lingering over the interior and south. Skies will continue to clear out through the evening and overnight as the front continues to push south through the area and high pressure builds in behind it. Some cooler and drier air will also be filtering into the area behind the front, with lows dropping into the mid 50s to lower 60s for the next couple of nights, and highs in the 80s.
Southerly winds in the lower levels will increase on Friday, along with temperatures.
213 PM EDT Thu Apr 30 2020 Strong upper low pressure system moves east across the area through tonight.
248 PM CDT Thu Apr 30 2020 Warmer air builds into the region tonight, amidst ridging aloft and southerly returns flow. Most CAMs suggest light rain showers or sprinkles cannot be ruled out along and west of the James River Valley late tonight and along and northeast of the Buffalo Ridge in MN on Friday morning. Friday will bring notably warmer and breezy weather with temperatures peaking about 5 to 10 degrees warmer than Thursday.
Last elements of convection associated with the cold front have moved offshore, with high pressure settling in behind the frontal passage throughout tonight. Overnight low temperatures is expected to drop down into the lower 50s for inland areas and in the mid to upper 50s for coastal areas and along the St Johns River.
415 PM EDT Thu Apr 30 2020 The short-term outlook remains gloomy and cool through much of Friday, then turns brighter and warmer heading into the weekend. The 1930z analysis shows a vertically stacked area of low pressure, near the southwestern shores of Lake Erie, meandering to the northeast. This low is embedded in a narrow full latitude 500 mb trough extending from the James Bay to the Florida Peninsula. To the west, a full latitude 500 mb ridge stretches along the High Plains from eastern New Mexico to the Great Bear Lake, NWT.
/issued 356 AM CDT Thu Apr 30 2020/ Dry high pressure has settled into the area and will remain in place for quite a while. Ridging over Texas that earlier in the week looked like it would build eastward into the Gulf of Mexico now looks like it will remain over Texas and may even build westward.
Relatively deep upper trough will progress eastward across the region overnight in the wake of this mornings cold front. A seasonably cool airmass will be in place with low tempertures dropping into the lower 50s overnight.
245 PM CDT Thu Apr 30 2020 High pressure is building over the western Gulf Coast, resulting in some quieter weather across the region in the short term. Temperatures will continue to be a little below seasonal normals tonight under the ridge.
Afternoon temperatures continued to climb despite the high cloudiness today. Thus, the Excessive Heat Warning will remain in effect until 7 PM MST this evening for the lower deserts. Models continued to show the high pressure ridge responsible for the hot weather weakening and shifting east of the region on Friday into the weekend.