Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
637 AM CDT Sun Mar 26 2017 Slow moving mid-level cyclone that we have been dealing with for a couple of days is moving through eastern MO early this morning per WV imagery. The 07Z objective surface analysis indicated a ridge axis from western MN into central KS. Weak flow within this ridge axis will allow for the low clouds currently in place across the CWA to remain through the day today.
941 AM EDT Sun Mar 26 2017 High pressure will crest over the region on Today. Low pressure will approach from the west tonight into Monday. Visible satellite imagery showing mainly clear skies across the region this morning, with just a few wisps of cirrus evident, as strong high pressure extends across northern Maine from Qubec province. The high will continue to move off to our east today allowing for some increase in high clouds by late afternoon. Clouds will continue to increase tonight as the high continues to move east and a warm from approaches from the west. Pcpn wl gradually wind down late Mon ngt but expect pcpn to continue acrs the far north in wrap-arnd cyclonic flow with upr-lvl trof lurking nr the region.
653 AM CDT Sun Mar 26 2017 A vertically stacked low pressure system was located along the IA/MO border early this morning. A mid level deformation zone extends northward from the low, stretching from southwest MN through the west metro to northern WI. Farther east, there will be minor short waves rotating northwestward around the upper low aiding in bands of light rain across the eastern FA.
940 AM EDT Sun Mar 26 2017 Atlantic high pressure will weaken early this week.
/issued 459 AM CDT Sun Mar 26 2017/ SHORT TERM (Now through Monday): The next in a series of short waves will move east into the High Plains today, with underlying surface pressure falls serving to tighten the gradient and produce breezy to windy conditions. The plains mid level trough will move rapidly east today, with high pressure filling in behind it under an advancing short wave ridge.
A fast moving high pressure system will build into the region today ahead of another Pacific cold front expected Monday afternoon. Although light winds are expected area-wide today, gusty winds ahead and after Mondays cold front are expected.
1214 PM EDT Sun Mar 26 2017 Atlantic high pressure will weaken early this week.
Meanwhile, nearly zonal flow is in place aloft and ridging in the mid levels. Short Term Update - Gentle to moderate east breezes will continue across the Florida Keys this afternoon as ridging remain to our north. Expect temps to top out in the lower 80s. Gentle to moderate east breezes will continue on Keys waters due to a ridge across the Florida peninsula.
Showers and thunderstorms will return to the forecast area on Monday as a short wave trough moving into the Plains today traverses the lower and mid Mississippi Valley on Monday. After this system moves east of the region, a weak cold front will approach from the north, but will not push through the forecast area.
GAH PREVIOUS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION: Upper trof swinging through Montana today, pushing a weak front into North Dakota this morning. Slight ridge builds over the state tonight with another upper trof moving onshore from the Pacific Ocean.
Yet another system brings snow to the already healthy snow pack in the higher elevations. With warmer road temperatures with the higher sun angles however, snow should melt quickly and travel impacts should not be long lasting. The cold air mass aloft will shift east Monday afternoon as an upper level ridge builds into the region.
Otherwise, with little overall change in conditions expected today, will trend highs down a few degrees, as temps likely will struggle to rise with the low cloud cover/showers. Upper level trough/500 mb low spinning over the mid mississippi river valley early this morning, per latest water vapor satellite imagery. The trough will continue to lift northeast today-tonight, with the low filling as it moves over the eastern great lakes. The GFS has the same trough, but holds it farther south, with little if any pcpn threat locally. A swath of pcpn would accompany the trough. Rather, it eventually merges it with another trough moving out of the southwest that would bring another round of pcpn Mon (ala what the EC expects for Thu-Fri).
1048 AM EDT Sun Mar 26 2017 High pressure will continue to the east, while an old frontal boundary remains situated across the Mid Mississippi River Valley. Temps given this persistent southerly advection will stay at least 5- 7 degrees above normal for highs today and slightly warmer for Monday with many locations close to the 80 mark.
1031 AM EDT Sun Mar 26 2017 A cold front passes today with showers and thunderstorms expected.
1226 PM EDT Sun Mar 26 2017 Atlantic high pressure will weaken early this week.
943 AM EDT Sun Mar 26 2017 Aviation Rain will continue today and tonight as low pressure moves across Lower Michigan.
At the time of this writing, a surface/upper low combo was located just to the north and west of our CWA and is forecast to move northeast today toward the Great Lakes region. A N-S cold front from the low was bisecting our CWA. Precipitation chances will begin to overspread the region late tonight from the west as the quasi-stationary frontal boundary lifts back to the north as a warm front in response to a system emerging from the southern plains moves toward the region. Beyond that, high pressure at the surface and weak ridging aloft should keep the region dry through the rest of the period.
Also can't rule out some patchy MVFR cigs and isolated -shra as low pressure moves across northern zones during the late morning and through the afternoon. In addition, the associated cold front will make its way across the forecast area today with northwest to north winds in its wake, likely reaching into the breezy category at times.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 73 58 76 58 / 50 40 30 60 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 73 56 74 57 / 50 50 40 60 Oak Ridge, TN 73 56 74 57 / 70 50 40 60 Tri Cities Airport, TN 74 51 72 54 / 70 50 50 50.
508 AM MDT Sun Mar 26 2017 08z surface analysis had low over central CO with cold front into western SD. Water vapour had upper trough from MT into CO, moving east. Tonight through Monday afternoon, upper ridge builds into the northern plains ahead of another upper trough moving from the west coast into the Rockies. Monday night, upper trough splits with several pieces of energy moving into the plains states.
This will weaken the ridging aloft but 12z sounding at Cape Canaveral remained dry with precipitable water 0. Though prospects look small for showers, will not change the low inland POP in our forecast. Weakening high pressure ridge causing diminished onshore flow between 10-15 knots; however, a moderate 9-10 period swell will maintain 4-5 ft combined seas over the nearshore waters and up to 6 feet offshore.
1059 AM CDT Sun Mar 26 2017 Updated aviation portion for 18Z TAF issuance Chilly and damp with occasional rain and drizzle today, then a little warmer for the upcoming work week. A series of upper level cyclones embedded within the southern stream will slowly cross the country. In the big picture, remnants of weakening upper low will head northeast toward Lake Michigan today.
High pressure will bring dry conditions today with fairly light winds and near normal temperatures.
A low pressure trough will bring cooling Monday and a slight chance of showers along with locally gusty west winds.
Overnight lows will be influenced by the same cloud cover, but with the weather system pulling out to the north, slight cooler air will advect into the area, resulting in lows in the mid to upper 40s for tonight. The track of the low in both the ECMWF and the GFS is similar. A brief break in the precip for Tues and Wed as upper level ridging keeps the region dry.
1111 AM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016 High pressure will push east across the region through this afternoon, resulting in another sunny and warm day. Outside of a few high level clouds pushing up over the ridge and a few diurnal cumulus, mostly sunny skies are expected.
Upper level heights begin increasing today as the ridge begins building. The low level thicknesses and 850 temps are generally the same as previous runs.
with readings topping out in the lower to middle 80s.
Southwest flow aloft will prevail around an upper level trough over California. Southerly flow around the low will bring drier air to southern Colorado while southeast to east winds farther north will transport moisture into northeast Colorado. The southerly flow will also likely cause a Denver Cyclone to form. Likely due to convergence along the Denver Cyclone and the east/west boundary. the upper level trough will remain to the west with a dry southwesterly flow aloft over north central and northeast CO.
1010 AM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016 Low pressure will move northeast off the New England coast during today, while high pressure builds in from the west. High pressure will move right over the area tonight.
Best chances will be in the northwest and west with the lowest chances in the southeast. Today Through Wednesday Night A strong upper ridge will be over Arkansas today, with an upper low over the east coast and over the northwest U. then the ridge shifts slightly eastward. Highs today will be in the upper 70s to upper 80s and warmer Wednesday with highs in the mid to upper 80s.
1219 PM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016 Low pressure surface and aloft will drift northward across the region today and early tonight. Warmer weather will return on Wednesday ahead of a cold front. The cold front will bring clouds and a few showers and thunderstorms to the area Wednesday afternoon and evening.
Upper level low centered over SW Saskatchewan will move little today and tonight, continuing to circulate moisture into the region from the NW.
/Issued / High pressure and dry conditions will persist across the CWFA for the short term period. High pressure will remain overhead today and tonight, but begin to shift offshore by late Wednesday. large-scale upper-level pattern continues fairly static with the larger wavelength troughiness stuck across the rockies and high plains and broad/weak ridging over the east.
1128 AM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016 Upper level low pressure centered over Long Island today will move off to the northeast on Wednesday. A noticeably warmer and more summer-like pattern with showers and thunderstorms possible each afternoon and evening is expected to last into the first part of the holiday weekend. slightly cooler weather may arrive for Memorial Day. Still quite comfortable as humidity will still be on the low side.
1056 AM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016 High pressure will prevail over the Southeast most of this week.
909 AM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016 High pressure over the Central Appalachian Mountains will drift of the Southeastern Coast of the US this afternoon. This will allow a weak cold front to move southward to around Lake Erie and become stationary Wednesday evening. A ridge of high pressure will extend west from the Atlantic Ocean into Northern Ohio and Northwestern Pennsylvania by the end of the week. H850 temperatures will continue to warm as a ridge builds over the area. A weak cold front will sag southward toward Lake Erie from the north on Wednesday. However the coverage of the thunderstorms will likely be limited since the upper level ridge will remain fairly strong.
High clouds aloft are inhibiting these MVFR in some areas and making the lower cloud deck patchy in some locations. If a storm can develop, will certainly have the potential of reaching severe levels given the high instability.
Surface troffing over the central portion of the country will increase the s-se surface winds later today after sunrise resulting in breezier conditions. This combined with daytime heating will mix out the low levels of the atms allowing vfr conditions to prevail through the first half of the current taf set. /issued 442 AM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016/ SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday): 500 mb ridging will continue to dominate the south central plains states through Wed. A strong 500 mb closed low will dig down over the western states. So the persistent mid level ridging will limit the conv potential through Wed. Will nudge up the high temps a few degrees over today and Wed as expect the stronger more southerly flow may increase the high temps a bit due to more downsloping off of the higher terrain in NE Mexico.
1155 AM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016 High pressure over the Central Appalachian Mountains will drift of the Southeastern Coast of the U. This will allow a weak cold front to move southward to around Lake Erie and become stationary Wednesday evening. A ridge of high pressure will extend west from the Atlantic Ocean into Northern Ohio and Northwestern Pennsylvania by the end of the week. A weak cold front will sag southward toward Lake Erie from the north on Wednesday. However the coverage of the thunderstorms will likely be limited since the upper level ridge will remain fairly strong.
Given the elevated nature of the convection and its ties to the low level jet and location of the best instability across the central/southern Plains I would suspect that this activity will initially propagate toward southwest Missouri this morning, but the residual outflow will help to initiate additional convection further northeast along and south of I-70 this afternoon as the atmosphere diurnally destabilizes.
904 AM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016 Quiet weather remains this morning as upper low continues to spin over southern Saskatchewan. Latest guidance continues to show the possibility of some showers/weak thunderstorms developing over northwest North Dakota in cyclonic flow around the low. Otherwise, a dry day is forecast with the exception of far northwest North Dakota where diurnally driven scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible in the vicinity of the upper level low. The consensus is for this convection to potentially propagate northeast into western and central North Dakota through the night aided by modest low level warm air advection and moisture transport along and east of the inverted trough extending into southwest North Dakota.
951 AM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016 An upper level low will gradually move northeast of the area today.
Otherwise, look for highs to top out in the low/mid 80s. High pressure is centered over the Appalachians this morning with an upper level trough just off the east coast and an amplified ridge over the lower Ohio Valley. Southerly winds will continue to usher in warmer and more humid air. Highs will top out in the lower to mid 80s across the region. Highs on Wednesday will top out in the lower to mid 80s again, likely a degree or two warmer than today. However, dewpoints rising into the lower to mid 60s will make it feel muggier.
Even with the cloud cover currently moving through, temps are on the rise this morning reaching into the mid/upper 70s! The upper level ridge just off to our west will stream in additional cloud cover and some moisture into the region today. Looking at BUFR soundings, they moisten throughout the day slowly eroding the large amount of dry air in the low/mid levels. However, depending on cloud cover temps could go a little bit warmer.
High pressure to the north will increase a few millibars today and the onshore flow will become better established. Weak high pressure building off the Carolina coast will produce an east flow around 10 knots, except increasing to 10 to 15 knots across the southern waters this afternoon.
Idaho and eastern Oregon will be under the influence of split flow aloft, as weak upper level troughs remain in position over western Montana and central California, respectively. Mean upper level trough will continue to impact the region through Wednesday. Disturbances moving through the flow, as well as diurnal heating, will encourage scattered showers each afternoon (mainly over the higher terrain), tapering off each evening.
An upper ridge over the region will bring prevailing VFR through the next 24 hours.
933 AM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016 High pressure will provide dry weather today and Wednesday, before shower chances return Wednesday night. Strong ridge will build in over the area tonight and hold through most of Wednesday. With a lack of moisture and subsidence under the ridge, most of Wednesday should remain dry.
1151 AM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016 High pressure will build over the region for the next several days.
958 AM PDT TUE MAY 24 2016 Precipitation will become more showery today over the Idaho Panhandle as low pressure slowly moves out of the region.
High pressure will allow for one more dry day before thunderstorm chances return Tuesday night and continue through the Holiday weekend as upper waves interact with an increasingly moist and unstable atmosphere. /Rest of Today/ Upped sky cover some all areas with cirrus moving across, but upped the highest in the far southwest where an area of mid cloud is approaching from southern Illinois. in the lower to mid 80s.
An upper level low will bring a chance of showers and thunderstorms to interior northwest California today.
1018 AM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016 Upper level low pressure centered over Long Island today will move off to the northeast on Wednesday. A noticeably warmer and more summer-like pattern with showers and thunderstorms possible each afternoon and evening is expected to last into the first part of the holiday weekend. slightly cooler weather may arrive for Memorial Day. Still quite comfortable as humidity will still be on the low side.
1237 PM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016 An upper level low will gradually move northeast of the area today.
Any convective resistance in the lowest levels should be easily overcome for shower and thunderstorm development through the afternoon. That doesn't mean they don't exist as a mid to upper level trough swings to our east. Expect freshening conditions as the high surface pressure settles off the Carolina coast tonight through Wednesday.
1057 AM MDT TUE MAY 24 2016 Eastern UT and western CO will remain under moderate southwest flow aloft ahead of another low pressure system that covers the states to the west and north. Today will be drier and warmer and Wednesday will be drier than previous thought as the western troughy pattern will be slow to move east. This process appears to slow the easterly movement of the broader long wave trough comprised of the two smaller lows.
Region will be in weak flow regime between upper low over California and upper low over sw Canada.
Water vapor imagery indicated a short wave trough across AL/GA tracking SSE.
1022 AM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016 AVIATION section updated High pressure will allow for one more dry day before thunderstorm chances return Tuesday night and continue through the Holiday weekend as upper waves interact with an increasingly moist and unstable atmosphere. /Rest of Today/ Upped sky cover some all areas with cirrus moving across, but upped the highest in the far southwest where an area of mid cloud is approaching from southern Illinois. in the lower to mid 80s.
837 AM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016 Low pressure surface and aloft will drift northward across the region today and early tonight. Warmer weather will return on Wednesday ahead of a cold front. The cold front will bring clouds and a few showers and thunderstorms to the area Wednesday afternoon and evening.
1011 AM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016 Low pressure surface and aloft will drift northward across the region today and early tonight. Warmer weather will return on Wednesday ahead of a cold front. The cold front will bring clouds and a few showers and thunderstorms to the area Wednesday afternoon and evening.
The mean long wave trough in place continues to stretch from the intermountain region west into the eastern pacific, with two defined short waves rounding the base. A defined deformation axis exists over southern Montana west into eastern Oregon on the southern periphery of a closed low spinning over southern Canada.
A weak low pressure system will bring a slight chance of showers and a thunderstorm or two to our region today. Meanwhile, a long wave trough extends down the Pacific Northwest into northern and central California. Increased moisture and weak disturbances riding along the trough will result in chances for showers and thunderstorms over a portion of the region again this afternoon. Have updated the ongoing forecast to included convection over the Santa Lucia Mountains for this afternoon along with the North and East Bay Hills/Mountains and the higher terrain of San Benito County. Otherwise, cooler than average temperatures expected for the remainder of the day with most locations only warming into the 60s to lower 70s.
729 AM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016 Low pressure will move northeast off the New England coast during today, while high pressure builds in from the west. High pressure will move right over the area tonight.
750 AM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016 Aviation High pressure will slip away from the region today but should provide one more dry day. Actually the sfc front weakens overhead and becomes rather ill-defined, then begins to rebound north as a warm front on Wednesday. However it's unclear if the warm front will still be in our area or will have lifted into nrn lower mi.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 88 63 89 65 / 0 0 10 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 85 60 86 64 / 0 0 10 10 Oak Ridge, TN 85 60 86 63 / 0 10 10 20 Tri Cities Airport, TN 81 53 82 60 / 0 0 10 10.
255 PM MST SUN APR 17 2016 A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY BUILD INTO THE REGION THIS WEEK FOR CLEAR SKIES. AND SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES.
409 PM CDT SUN APR 17 2016 UPPER LEVEL LOW STILL CHURNING ACROSS COLORADO. ANOTHER BRISK NIGHT IN STORE WITH TEMPERATURES DIPPING INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS THE WESTERN PANHANDLES. BUT TEMPERATURES COULD END UP VERY CLOSE TO THE FREEZING MARK ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE. AM NOT CONFIDENT THOUGH THAT EVEN JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE COULD BE WARRANTED DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SIMILAR TO HOW TODAY UNFOLDED. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL STILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL BUT SHOULD BE WARMER THAN TODAY.
/ISSUED 222 AM CDT SUN APR 17 2016/ MUCH OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PANHANDLES WILL BE IN THE DRY SLOT OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER COLORADO THROUGH MUCH OF MONDAY. A COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH THE PANHANDLES EARLY THIS MORNING. THE DRIER AIR WITH THE FRONT SHOULD EAT AWAY AT THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THAT WAS HELPING TO FUEL THE SHOWERS AND STORMS.
CLEAR SKIES AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TODAY AS THE REGION REMAINS BETWEEN THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO THE WEST AND BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE SOUTHEAST. NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS ALOFT WILL KEEP SOUTHWEST IDAHO A LITTLE COOLER THAN THE SOUTHEAST OREGON TODAY. DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY AS REGION REMAINS BETWEEN A CUTOFF LOW ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING ALONG THE CASCADES. CIRCULATION AROUND THE UPPER LOW WILL BRING EASTERLY DOWNSLOPING WINDS TO MUCH OF REGION TODAY AND MONDAY. CLOUDS MAY INCREASE ACROSS CENTRAL IDAHO ZONES ON MONDAY AS MOISTURE WRAPS AROUND THE LOW.
WITH THE OMEGA BLOCK CONTINUING TO COVER MOST OF ERN NORTH AMERICA THE CUT-OFF MID-UPPER CYCLONE WILL EXPAND SLOWLY. IN RESPONSE THE OMEGA BLOCK WILL BREAK DOWN CONSIDERABLY BUT THE MID-UPPER RIDGE WILL STILL POSSESS SUFFICIENT STRENGTH TO KEEP THE UPPER LOW CUT-OFF OVER CO. THE ONSETTING & DEEPENING WLY COMPONENT WOULD BEGIN TO PUSH THE FRONT E AS A COLD FRONT WHICH SHOULD ENABLE RAIN TO END QUICKLY ACROSS CENTRAL & SOUTH-CENTRAL KS MON MORNING. AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES E INTO SOUTHEAST KS MON AFTERNOON MORE THUNDERSTORMS WOULD DEVELOP. THIS WOULD DRIVE THE WEAKENING MID-UPPER LOW SE TOWARD THE MS VALLEY WHERE IT'LL TRANSITION INTO AN OPEN WAVE WED NIGHT.
12Z MODELS SHOWING SOME PRETTY GOOD SN TOTALS OVER THE PEAKS AS A SHORT WAVE ROTATES THROUGH THE UPPER LOW SITTING OVER OUR AREA. THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS LOCATED OVER COLORADO THIS MORNING. THE UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY TRACK NORTHWARD TO THE NORTHWESTERN QUAD OF THE STATE. SINCE THE HIGHLIGHTS THIS MORNING HAVE BEEN CANCELLED. LEANED TOWARDS SLIGHTLY COOLER READINGS DUE TO HEAVIER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FOR SOME AREAS.