Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
434 PM MST Fri Nov 10 2017 Flow has begun to turn southwesterly this afternoon as a weakening trough heads eastward into the Great Basin. This trough will continue to deamplify as it skirts to the north of the Wyoming border on Saturday morning. Precipitation will be limited to the higher elevations above 8000 feet, beginning after sunrise and ending in the mid-afternoon hours Saturday. Temperatures drop back by a few degrees on Saturday as the trough axis passes, but will still remain above average for the second week of November.
Poor to hazardous boating conditions have developed behind a cold front that was settling south of the waters.
Attention then turns to an upper trough approaching the western Great Lakes later tonight into Saturday. Moisture should be deep enough for mainly snow for most of the event, however as moisture gets scoured out in the mid levels with the forcing shifting from north to south some freezing drizzle is possible across north-central Wisconsin late tonight into Saturday and across central Wisconsin on Saturday. Given snowfall is expected before the freezing drizzle and the freezing drizzle itself is expected to mainly occur during the daytime hours the impact from this precipitation type is expected to be minimal.
23z sfc analysis shows cold high pressure over the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes. Temperatures generally very from the low 30s in the north to near 40 degrees in the south. Dewpoints, meanwhile, vary similarly from the mid teens north to the low 20s south. The forecast has readings dropping into the lower 20s valleys and in the upper 20s on ridges and this still appears to be on track. The coldest night of the season will be in store as readings Saturday morning bottom out in the mid 20s on ridges and upper teens to lower 20s in valleys. Warming temperatures will take shape for the beginning of the weekend as high pressure shifts across the east coast and southwest flow establishes itself aloft.
327 PM MST Fri Nov 10 2017 This evening there will be gusts to 50 mph over the higher terrain. A trough will graze the north mountains around 15Z Saturday bringing scattered light snow showers to the higher terrain. Temperatures are expected to be warmer due to shallow inversions that will burn off with better mixing.
Some differences in how this wave is being handled, especially in the lower levels.
High pressure across northern Michigan will shift east tonight, and with flow turning SE, the lake effect will end, but there will be some lingering cloudiness near the lakefront. Additional high clouds will advect in from the west ahead of a series of upstream disturbances, coupled with increasing low level warm advection, which will keep overnight temps a bit warmer than last night, staying the 20s.
Depending on how quickly the low clouds develop, fog may be limited over all but KCNM and KPEQ where the clouds may form last. /issued 232 PM CST Fri Nov 10 2017/ Weak ridging aloft is over the region with northwest flow aloft. Temperatures today will be similar to yesterday with cooler conditions across the eastern CWA due to cloud cover lingering across this area. Zonal flow will be over the region on Saturday as a trough moves over the Northern Plains flattening the upper ridge.
For 00z Aviation discussion below Surface analysis this afternoon shows the center of high pressure over the Great Lakes while a low pressure center is getting organized over southern Saskatchewan province, including a front sagging south over eastern MT/WY. Aloft, a small ridge axis over the MN/WI border is continuing to shift east while a compact upper level low atop the aforementioned surface feature rotates eastward. Fairly deep moisture in advance of the low and on the backside of the ridge has kept cloud cover in place all day and the clouds will stay tonight through much of tomorrow as the front to the west slowly approaches.
No changes needed other than an adjustment to the low temperature for our location tonight. When winds are out the northeast, the temperature tends to remain a little warmer due to our surrounding topography. The high center will push off to the east on Saturday allowing winds to become more southeasterly.
1002 PM EST Fri Nov 10 2017 Arctic high pressure will build into the area through Saturday night, bringing the first freeze of the season.
As of 20Z Friday afternoon, a low amplitude, mid-level trough was traversing the northern Plains. At the surface, a broad anticyclone was centered over Lake Michigan. A surface cold front will encroach the area by dawn Saturday morning. Southerly winds could gust upward of 20-25 mph ahead of the cold front. Temperatures are expected to be warmer Saturday afternoon with highs ranging from the middle 40s in far northeast KS to the low 50s in central KS.
Aircraft soundings at AUS and SAT show that the low-levels are relatively dry, so MVFR ceilings are not expected for several hours at the I-35 sites.
Cold front has moved well south of the area. Strong high pressure situated from the Great Lakes to the mid Atlantic region will wedge into the southeast U.
928 PM EST Fri Nov 10 2017 The first Arctic airmass of the season is settling in thanks to a strong high pressure area.
One thing to consider is the possibility of light freezing rain, and whether or not it will happen is not obvious at this time. Raws sites along the foothills show dew pts in the low-mid 20s, giving a bit of credence to what the GFS is showing. All of this being said, cannot rule out some light freezing rain (or rain where surface temps are above freezing) and have added a slight mention of this to the forecast east of the foothills between 06-18z, but feel a pcpn type of snow is a better bet. With warmer temperatures in the central zones, this will fall more as a rain/snow mix or as rain. Farther to east temperatures will be cooler and will see a little more fall as snow, but the lift will be weaker and less will be falling.
As colder air wraps into the departing system, rain will likely mix with or change to wet snow late tonight into early Monday over the higher elevations of the Alleghenies. Added a few more tenths of an inch above 1500 feet to going snow totals there, with some areas see an inch or a little more at the highest peaks. Lows will drop into the lower 30s.
Winds will be from the south-southwest tonight into Monday, ahead of an approaching cold front. This dry air mass will again allow decent radiational cooling tonight, although increasing wind speeds will certainly make for temperatures warmer than this morning. Warm again on Monday, although approaching cold front will reach the northern Big Country in time to keep highs in the 60s. Elsewhere, temperatures will have plenty of time to climb into the 70s before the cold front begins to have an effect. 07 (Monday night through Sunday) The cold front will move through the rest of West Central Texas Monday night.
Temperatures have rebounded quickly during the morning, especially in the western CWA where a southwest wind has kicked in, with readings in the low to mid 50s. A cold front will push through the area overnight tonight into Monday morning. Temperatures will be cooler in the northwestern 2/3 of the CWA on Monday with increased cloud cover and cold air advection taking place. Southeast CWA may actually have warmer temperatures on Monday with more sunshine and a later frontal passage. Highs should range from the low 50s in the northwest to the upper 50s in the southeast. High pressure will continue to build into the area Monday night and should have another night with freezing or below freezing temperatures across most of the CWA.
925 PM EDT Sun Oct 29 2017 A strong upper level trough will pivot northeastward across the middle Atlantic states overnight.
But I don't think freezing temps will be widespread enough to warrant a Freeze Warning.
A cold front was passing across the two state area and will continue to do so overnight. Temperatures will fall into the 30s except into the 20s across the higher elevations. Dry conditions will persist into Monday and temperatures will be noticeably cooler.
A strong cold front will sweep through eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas late tonight into Monday morning. /Issued 403 PM CDT Sun Oct 29 2017/ After a brief warmup today, a cold front will sweep across the area later tonight and Monday bringing a return to cooler temperatures for the first part of the coming week.
603 PM CDT Sun Oct 29 2017 Updated for 00Z aviation discussion 00Z TAF discussion: High pressure will be gradually shifting to the east over the next 24 hours. High pressure will maintain overall quiet conditions across the forecast area over the next 24 hours. While chilly conditions will again exist overnight, the mercury doesn't look to fall as low as it did this morning, with lows tonight progged to range from the lower 40s west of the Mississippi River to the middle 30s across East Mississippi. Late in the afternoon, a cold front will approach the Delta region from the northwest.
This warmup will be short-lived as a cold front, currently cutting through central Nebraska into northwest Iowa, moves through the forecast area this evening. With the winds shifting out of the northwest, drier and cooler air will gradually advect into the region tonight into early next work week.
1138 PM CDT Sun Oct 29 2017 Low pressure in south central Canada, just north of the Minnesota border will dive southeast into the Great Lakes region tonight into Monday morning. The 500mb low aloft which is driving the surface system will provide the dynamics to drive a cold front south through the CWFA late tonight and Monday morning. Forecast soundings are pretty dry in the low levels though, and MOS PoPs are correspondingly low. Clouds and southerly flow ahead of the front tonight should keep temperatures at least 10 degrees warmer tonight than they were last night.
This trend should continue through the afternoon and skies should eventually clear as the upper trough swings across the Appalachians. By later tonight into early Monday morning skies should have cleared and winds should have diminished enough for the lows to drop into the upper 20s and lower 30s across the north. Not much warming has taken place today and there could be some areas on the fringes of the Warning that may reach into the lower 30s tonight.
Additional cooling within the dry air will allow for subfreezing temperatures to occur beginning as early as late this evening through the overnight hours. Tomorrow a dry cold front will progress through the area, but too little too late to have much of an impact on high temperatures for the day. Highs are expected to range from the lower 60s in the far north to the lower 70s in the far south. The cold front will keep tomorrow night chilly, with lows in the upper 30s to lower 40s.
A new cold front will drop SE into the state during the day on Mon.
Expect some clearing overnight to allow for lows in the lower 30s north to upper 30s south. Deep mixing should allow for highs in the lower 40s north to near 50F far south.
656 PM CDT Sun Oct 29 2017 For the 00Z TAFs, a cold front will move across the TAF sites late this evening and tonight with gusty north winds behind it for several hours. Water vapor imagery shows a cutoff closed low moving into the central CA coast amidst weak ridging over the western CONUS. A cold front associated with a upper low over east-central Canada is quickly advancing south through the northern and central plains.
754 PM EDT Sun Oct 29 2017 Building high pressure will keep the weather quiet and conditions VFR through the TAF period. /issued 414 PM EDT Sun Oct 29 2017/ Latest WPC analysis indicates a cold front draped down the eastern seaboard, extending down toward the Bahamas. This pattern will continue to draw in dry and cooler air from the north into our CWA. Maximum temperatures on Monday will struggle to reach the low to mid 70s, 10 to 15 degrees below normal for this time of year. Maximum temperatures will recover to the low to mid 80s from mid to late week, near seasonal norms.
1154 PM CDT Sun Oct 29 2017 Southwest winds will develop throughout the area tonight as our next cold front approaches from the north. The wind should keep temperatures well above freezing and keep frost from being much of a concern for a change. The 12Z guidance clears the area more rapidly from the north Monday night which will result in temperatures into the lower 30s over portions of the area and a frost concern as well.
700 PM CDT Sun Oct 29 2017 A cold front has reached the northern and western fringes of the forecast area the past hour. which should end up in most locations struggling to make it out of the lower to middle 40s by Monday afternoon. most locations will likely remain above freezing early Monday morning as breezy winds and mostly cloudy skies should help keep overnight lows somewhat elevated. this chance for light rain has been removed as model data no longer supports this and the atmosphere remains too dry in the lower levels to justify a continued mention for rain.
Strong cold front has moved into northern Oklahoma and will sweep through eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas during the overnight hours.
Cold front has dropped well into East Idaho per surface obs.
Dewpoints have already plummeted into the low to mid 50s. /issued 754 PM EDT Sun Oct 29 2017/ Building high pressure will keep the weather quiet and conditions VFR through the TAF period. /issued 414 PM EDT Sun Oct 29 2017/ Latest WPC analysis indicates a cold front draped down the eastern seaboard, extending down toward the Bahamas. This pattern will continue to draw in dry and cooler air from the north into our CWA. Maximum temperatures on Monday will struggle to reach the low to mid 70s, 10 to 15 degrees below normal for this time of year. Maximum temperatures will recover to the low to mid 80s from mid to late week, near seasonal norms.
That cold will allow for some snow accumulation along the higher elevations tonight.
935 PM EDT Sun Oct 29 2017 Temps have dropped quickly where skies have cleared, with a few spots already below freezing west of I-65. This combined with weak lift in the low levels led to isolated flurries, graupel, drizzle, snow pellets at times across the area. Once the clouds clear and winds relax, plan on very good radiational cooling conditions and temperatures will drop quickly into the lower 30s. With this in mind and in coordination with surrounding offices, will issue a Freeze Warning for areas mainly east of I-65 in Kentucky where the greatest confidence of prolonged sub-freezing temperatures is. After a cold start, temperatures will warm quickly Monday as southwest winds increase ahead of another cold front passage. Monday night's lows will fall again into the lower/middle 30s.
520 PM MDT Sun Oct 29 2017 Latest surface analysis showed gusty winds around 45 MPH upstream in association with secondary front, upstream upper level trough, and -SHRASN. Potent upper trough is pushing through the region with an associated sfc cold front well through the area. Gusty NW winds continue and will do so through Monday as a secondary cold front moves through the area later tonight. Secondary cold front and associated upper level impulse will push into the region late this evening and support an increase in ll flow and CAA. Best overlap of dynamics will occur late tonight into late Monday morning, with a couple of inches of snow possible, mainly in the higher elevations. Warmer weather can be expected Wed, before another cold front pushes thorough Wed night.
Overnight temperatures will range from the low 20s across the Pine Ridge region up to the low 30s across south central Nebraska. For Monday, high pressure builds south out of Canada and conditions dry out. High temperatures Monday are expected to range from the mid 30s across the north to the low 40s south of I-80, nearly 30 degrees cooler than Sunday. Large scale pattern starts off with a broad long wave trough dominating much of the CONUS with a closed low over the border of Ontario-Quebec and cyclonic flow aloft overhead.
Otherwise, the wind advisory remains in effect for the higher elevations. Have thus adjusted todays highs downward toward the cool Canadian solution, with further reduction over the ridge zones which received accumulating snow.
Winds will be from the south-southwest overnight into Monday, ahead of an approaching cold front. Winds will be from the south-southwest tonight into Monday, ahead of an approaching cold front. This dry air mass will again allow decent radiational cooling tonight, although increasing wind speeds will certainly make for temperatures warmer than this morning. Warm again on Monday, although approaching cold front will reach the northern Big Country in time to keep highs in the 60s. Elsewhere, temperatures will have plenty of time to climb into the 70s before the cold front begins to have an effect. 07 (Monday night through Sunday) The cold front will move through the rest of West Central Texas Monday night.
Even warmer temperatures are expected for Monday as WAA continues and our flow aloft becomes zonal. Compressional warming may also contribute as a cold front approaches the region by Monday aftn.
Templer Previous discussion: The cold front, which has pushed through eastern Montana today, has kept temperatures nearly constant and cold on a gusty NW wind, gusting up to 40 mph at times. Any lingering precipitation behind the cold front this afternoon and evening through Monday morning is expected to be very light, and given the expected temperatures, would change over from rain to snow.
1030 PM MDT Sun Oct 29 2017 A Canadian cold front will bring areas of snow to the north and spread south along and near the Continental divide through the Absaroka and Wind River mountains and over the Bighorn mountains with lighter snowfall over the Bighorn and Wind River Basins, Johnson, and Natrona counties and the Owl Creek and Bridger ranges. Areas of snow in the lower elevations will be generally an inch or two at best with 3 to 6 inches above 8500 over the mountains. Across the southwest brisk northeast winds will develop behind the cold front.
The pressure gradient force is prog to tighten during the day Monday as pressures lower ahead of an approaching cold front moving south out of Oklahoma and as a s/w trough advects east towards the area. Significantly warmer conditions are expected Mon Night as WAA regime develops.
1156 PM CDT Sun Oct 29 2017 A weak, and moisture starved, cold front is approaching central and southeast Illinois from the northwest. Radar mosaics and surface reports show light showers across north central and northeast Iowa, and the higher resolution models have these clipping the northern parts of the CWA late evening. Extensive clouds will help keep temperatures warmer than last night, mainly mid-upper 30s. The cooler push of air lags behind it a bit, so highs in the lower 50s will be possible as far north as about I-72.
923 PM CDT Sun Oct 29 2017 A weak, and moisture starved, cold front is approaching central and southeast Illinois from the northwest. Radar mosaics and surface reports show light showers across north central and northeast Iowa, and the higher resolution models have these clipping the northern parts of the CWA late evening. Extensive clouds will help keep temperatures warmer than last night, mainly mid-upper 30s. The cooler push of air lags behind it a bit, so highs in the lower 50s will be possible as far north as about I-72.
A mostly dry cold front will cross the area from north to south late tonight through Monday, followed by a mild west to southwest flow for the second half of the week. An upper trough continues to sag south through the northern Great Plains this evening while heights fall over Utah. The trough is associated with a dry cold front which will push south through Utah and southwest Wyoming later tonight into tomorrow. Cooler temperatures will settle into the area tomorrow behind this front. Given that the cold front will remain fairly shallow over Utah while a deeper and colder airmass will exist over Wyoming, an easterly gradient will strengthen over northeast Utah late tonight through tomorrow. Forecast handles the cold front and associated winds fairly well, so no updates this evening.
An approaching cold front, which will cross the region from east to west, has spilled over the Divide and is working through the upper Snake Plain this evening. A cold front is poised to move into the region early Monday with increasing wind impacting most terminals. Further east KJER and KTWF will see even higher wind speeds with KJER seeing the highest winds sustained near 30+ kts during the mid day hours.
A weakening low pressure system is expected to bring isolated to scattered showers Monday night from Tucson eastward. A 500mb ridge over the region produced very warm temperatures this afternoon roughly 5-10 degrees above average, with Tucson reaching 91F. Satellite imagery currently shows clear skies across Arizona, but change is on the way as an upper low moves down the southern California coastline. Dew points have increased into the low to mid 40s in western Pima County and this shallow moisture will continue to expand eastward tonight into Monday as the low advances.
Cold front moving south and should reach the CLL area around 12z with winds across the area TAF sites backing to the southeast. In the evening Monday the winds begin to back in response to the approach of a cold front.
Radar mosaics and surface reports show light showers across north central and northeast Iowa, and the higher resolution models have these clipping the northern parts of the CWA late evening. Extensive clouds will help keep temperatures warmer than last night, mainly mid-upper 30s. The cooler push of air lags behind it a bit, so highs in the lower 50s will be possible as far north as about I-72.
Isolated areas may see temps hold in the mid 30s or even approach freezing, but more likely freezing temps will be over the Plateau with the freeze warning.
Light to modest southwest winds through just before 18Z when a cold front will shift winds from the northeast and become gusty. /issued 315 PM CDT Sun Oct 29 2017/ WV imagery shows a broad upper trough ejecting up the eastern seaboard, leaving the western/central CONUS under NW flow aloft. Further west, a closed low sits off the CA coast. Unfortunately, to the north, a cold front is plowing thru NE, and will bring temps back below-normal Monday afternoon. Meanwhile, to the west, the trough off the west coast will dig south along the U.
Water vapor loop showed long wave trough becoming negatively tilted as it approached the eastern seaboard. Forecast area is at the base of this trough with very dry air aloft. High pressure building into area created northwest winds with gusts 20-30 mph, higher at times along the coast. High pressure settles into north Florida overnight with winds becoming light.
604 PM MDT Sun Oct 29 2017 00Z TAF CYCLE A windy back door cold front will dive SWWD through eastern areas tonight then into the central valley with a gusty east wind below canyons on Monday. A strong cold front will move southwest through eastern New Mexico Monday then into the Rio Grande Valley Monday night.
Daytime highs on Monday will be several degrees below normal with areas north of I-70 being some 15 to 20 degrees cooler than earlier this weekend with 24 hour temperature changes becoming more moderate across the central and southern areas.
At the surface, cold front stretches across southern SD and continues to push south. Cold front is expected to continue tracking south tonight and by sunrise will be approaching the Red River. Broad upper trough will encompass the northern Plains Wed with zonal flow over the central/southern Plains resulting in warming sw downslope winds. A strong cold front will blast south across the region this evening and overnight, with breezy north winds and cooler temperatures in its wake.
In the evening Monday the winds begin to back in response to the approach of a cold front.