Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1256 AM EDT Fri Jun 17 2022 Drier and cooler conditions are expected through the weekend. Meager moisture will keep the region precipitation free, though an isolated shower may develop over the higher terrain of WV with frontal passage and upslope lift. Temperature will remain near to above normal given the delayed arrival of the cooler air. Cold advection will peak tonight as high pressure builds in from the northwest.
1256 AM EDT Fri Jun 17 2022 Hot weather with heat advisory conditions to prevail on Friday, ahead of an approaching cold front. Parameters are more than sufficient for severe wx; a lot will come down to timing/orientation of mid- level energy rotating around the upr- level ridge breaking down, and any low-level boundaries. Scattered convection may be ongoing late Friday evening with rain chances ending from west to east through early overnight hours as a cold front makes its way across the area. Lows in the low 70s. Aloft, ridging to the southwest will be suppressed some as trough to the northeast digs down.
The mid level high pressure center will shift west through the period.
1237 AM PDT Fri Jun 17 2022 Breezy and much cooler weather is expected today. High temperatures this afternoon will be sixteen to eighteen degrees cooler than yesterday afternoon.
Heat indices may approach 110 degrees as a ridge centered over the Plains continues to keep us hot and mostly dry. A backdoor cold front is expected to move across the Midsouth late Saturday.
931 PM PDT Thu Jun 16 2022 A large trough will impact the region later today into the weekend, increasing onshore flow. This will bring cooler weather, greater coverage in marine layer clouds each night and morning, along with windy conditions across the mountains and deserts.
Upper level ridging will begin building into the area on Friday with southerly winds bringing increasing LLM moisture into the CWA. A pronounced upper ridge will be the dominant feature this weekend with the resultant excessive heat. However, 75th to 90th percentiles place the high and apparent Ts well within criteria.
Large hail and damaging winds will be the main threats given the elevated mixed layer in the low to mid level. Upper ridging will remain across the central CONUS Saturday, with deep southwest flow ahead of slow moving upper trough over the Pac NW.
Lows will be in the 70s with 60s located in the cooler spots above 4000' elevation. Persistent ridging will allow for subsidence aloft to rule the environment with limited convective potential outside the Sacramento Foothills Friday and pop-up showers/storms over the Rio Concho for Saturday.
The strong upper level ridge of high pressure will become centered over the Central Plains states Friday and Saturday, with associated ridging extending southeastward across the north central Gulf Coast region. Actual high temperatures are forecast to reach into the upper 90s to around 100 degrees over most interior areas and in the lower to mid 90s along the immediate coast Friday.
Most models bring a weak easterly wave westward underneath mean ridge tomorrow, affecting mainly southeast/southern portions of Oklahoma into western north Texas. This weakness in the upper ridge, along with elevated moisture and its effect to yield slightly cooler mid level temperatures, could yield at least isolated afternoon and evening thunderstorms.
115 AM EDT Fri Jun 17 2022 Aviation --Quiet, Cooler, Comfortable Pattern-- Quiet weather pattern expected through much of the weekend as Canadian high pressure builds south into the GrtLks Rgn. Dew points have already fallen into the 50s behind last night's cold front and the secondary cold front which slips south through the region Friday delivers dew points in the 40s.
To the north of the trough is an area of high pressure pinched between the trough and another area of low pressure over eastern Canada. The trailing boundary from this second area of low pressure will eventually help push the influence of the high back into the Gulf opening the door for a more unsettled pattern by Saturday. Temperatures will continue to be warm with most areas in the lower to mid 90s with heat index values reaching into the triple digits.
An upper level ridge is to thank/blame, depending on your preferences.
145 AM EDT Fri Jun 17 2022 Drier and cooler conditions are expected through the weekend. Meager moisture will keep the region precipitation free, though an isolated shower may develop over the higher terrain of WV with frontal passage and upslope lift. Temperature will remain near to above normal given the delayed arrival of the cooler air. Cold advection will peak tonight as high pressure builds in from the northwest.
Tonight Canadian high pressure nosing in from the north will bring clear skies, a north breeze, and morning lows all the way down into the 60s.
Another warm day is in store with high temps settling into the low 90s along the coast to around 100 degrees out west. Upper level ridging remains in control on Saturday with temps pretty similar to what we will see today. Latest guidance hints at a few pockets of deeper moisture moving inland Saturday morning as some H85 energy glides along the edge of the ridge.
8 PM temps were running 1 to 3 degrees warmer than 24 hours earlier over all but northeast MS, where temps were a degree or two cooler. /issued 241 PM CDT Thu Jun 16 2022/ An upper ridge will remain over the Mid-South over the next 7 days. Otherwise, hot and humid conditions will prevail across the Mid-South until a back door cold front moves into the region Friday Night into Saturday. Don't expect much of a cool down in regards to high temperatures as highs will likely stay in the lower to mid 90s, but low temperatures will be cooler.
315 AM CDT Fri Jun 17 2022 (Issued 315 AM CDT Fri Jun 17 2022) Today through Saturday night: High pressure will move overhead today and strengthen tonight into Saturday. The high will push a back door cold front through this evening, with breezy northwest winds becoming east to northeast. High temps will be near normal today, with the front bringing cooler conditions tonight through Saturday night. Highs will be comfortably in the 70s away from Lake Michigan Saturday, with cooler 60s likely near the lake.
Today's chance of precipitation is due to the center of a broad ridge being to our north, allowing for weak disturbances to enter from the east to instigate convection. The loss of daytime heating will gradually eliminate remaining convection, however, temperatures will only fall toward a minimum in the mid-70s overnight with dew points in the lower 70s. By Saturday, the center of the ridge will slowly build back south, suppressing some convection in the process and allowing maximum temperatures in the upper 90s in more areas (especially south of the I-20 corridor).
847 PM PDT Thu Jun 16 2022 One of the warmer days of the year occurred this afternoon, with temperatures topping out just around 70 degrees in many areas. While much of the region has enjoyed at least partial sunshine this afternoon, clouds will continue to steadily increase tonight along with increasing rain chances for Friday morning, with a cooler and wetter day in store. Upper level low off the Oregon coast will slowly drift southeast through Friday. Weak low pressure will remain over the area tonight.
The strong upper level ridge of high pressure will become centered over the Central Plains states today into Saturday, with associated ridging extending southeastward across the north central Gulf Coast region. Forecast high temperatures will reach the upper 90s to around 100 degrees over most interior areas and in the lower to mid 90s along the immediate coast today. A plume of warmer 850mb temperatures advect into the area for Saturday, generally between 20 to 23C.
Slightly cooler, but very hot temperatures again this afternoon. Discussion: In the upper levels, a strong ridge will be over the Great Plains. At the surface, low pressure near Quebec is dragging a cold front through the Eastern U. High instability is expected tomorrow afternoon with dew points in the lower 70s and CAPE around 3500 to 5000 J/kg. Activity will decrease shortly after sunset and come to an end completely around midnight as the cold front moves through. Another hot day is expected tomorrow with highs in the lower 90s for most of the Tennessee Valley. Relief is on the way with a cold front moving through tonight.
However, max temperatures are still expected to be in the mid to upper 90s for inland portions and in the low to mid 90s along the coasts along with heat indicies in the low to mid 100s. look before you lock! For Saturday, high pressure will mostly limit shower development, though one or two could form during the daytime hours. Though afternoon mixing may be enough to keep heat indicies in the low to mid 100s, some spots may experience indicies of 105-107 degrees.
A low level trough over the Western Atlantic waters will be moving southwest towards South Florida tonight. This trough will bring in some low moisture to the area late tonight allowing for a few showers and thunderstorms to develop over the Atlantic waters and work into the east coast metro areas late tonight into early Friday morning.
1229 AM CDT Fri Jun 17 2022 (The rest of tonight) A quiet night is on tap, with low temperatures expected to be a couple of degrees cooler than those seen this morning.
1214 AM CDT Fri Jun 17 2022 (This evening through Friday) Afternoon water vapor imagery shows a weak upper low spinning near Wichita Falls. Meanwhile, the upper level ridge was centered over the lower Mississippi Valley. Lows will drop back down into the lower to mid 70s under mostly clear skies. The upper high will remain anchored to our north.
239 AM CDT Fri Jun 17 2022 Hot and dry weather persists today as sub-tropical ridging retrogrades westward, with its amplitude modulated by the potent mid/upper-level cyclone digs into the Pacific Northwest. Subsidence from the ridge will prevent vertical mixing heights from ascending above 700 mb, with temperatures rising into the middle 90s across the Caprock and near the century mark across the Rolling Plains followed by a mild night. Sincavage A highly amplified upper pattern over North America will persist through the weekend with a deep, sharp trough over the West Coast with a ridge entrenched from the western Gulf Coast northward to the upper Mississippi Valley. Some model solutions are also bringing some of the mid level moisture currently on the south side of the upper low along the Gulf Coast westward as the upper high retrogrades.
This high pressure will dominate northern Michigan's weather throughout the near term forecast period and beyond, producing mostly clear to partly cloudy skies and precipitation-free weather. Northern Michigan lays between the aforementioned area of low pressure and amplifying ridge to our west and continued tight gradient. This area will see temperatures rise into the mid 70s, while the rest of northern lower sees upper 60s to low 70s and eastern upper Michigan only reaching into the low 60s. High Impact Weather Potential: Low Pattern Synopsis/Forecast Details: Impressive upper-level ridging will amplify across the heart of the country this weekend as troughing settles in over the New England states.
/EC/ Today through tonight: A slight shifting/weakening of the hot subtropical ridge is expected to take place over the forecast area as we go into the weekend, but the effects on the heat and humidity will be negligible, and have thus maintained the heat advisory through early this evening. We start to see some changes later in the day as the upper ridge axis that has been in control of our local weather for several days retrogrades westward. The upper ridge will sharpen and narrow, bookended by upper lows over both the east and west coasts. The eastern upper low, with its trough axis draped across New England, will allow for a substantially drier airmass to move southward in its wake.
315 AM PDT Fri Jun 17 2022 A weather system brings cooler weather along with a chance of mountain showers and thunderstorms through Saturday. Onshore surface pressure gradient has tightened with the approach of the trough resulting in locally gusty southerly breezes (25-35 mph) in the Sacramento Valley early this morning. Available moisture and instability don't look too impressive, especially compared to last weekend's system, but should be sufficient for scattered showers and perhaps a few late-day thunderstorms across the northern half of the forecast area (mainly over the higher terrain surrounding the northern Sacramento Valley).
545 AM MDT Fri Jun 17 2022 Upper level ridging will continue its collapse this morning as a deep amplitude Pacific low pushes ashore in California. High resolution models are advertising considerable rainfall across the higher terrain through the weekend with 12 hour rainfall totals over an inch in some locales.
This activity is supported by an upper level low that will drift towards the Bahamas through the remainder of the afternoon and evening.
/issued 239 AM CDT Fri Jun 17 2022/ Hot and dry weather persists today as sub-tropical ridging retrogrades westward, with its amplitude modulated by the potent mid/upper-level cyclone digs into the Pacific Northwest. Subsidence from the ridge will prevent vertical mixing heights from ascending above 700 mb, with temperatures rising into the middle 90s across the Caprock and near the century mark across the Rolling Plains followed by a mild night. Sincavage A highly amplified upper pattern over North America will persist through the weekend with a deep, sharp trough over the West Coast with a ridge entrenched from the western Gulf Coast northward to the upper Mississippi Valley. Some model solutions are also bringing some of the mid level moisture currently on the south side of the upper low along the Gulf Coast westward as the upper high retrogrades.
Saturday will be cooler as northeast winds flow across the cold lake water.
High temperatures in the low to mid 90s are forecast today, with heat indices around 105 across the western half of south Florida. To the north of the trough is an area of high pressure pinched between the trough and another area of low pressure over eastern Canada. The trailing boundary from this second area of low pressure will eventually help push the influence of the high back into the Gulf opening the door for a more unsettled pattern by Saturday. Temperatures will continue to be warm with most areas in the lower to mid 90s with heat index values reaching into the triple digits.
350 AM PDT Fri Jun 17 2022 A low pressure system moving into the western states will bring cooling for today and Saturday with periods of stronger and gusty southwest to west winds in the mountains and deserts.
515 AM MDT Fri Jun 17 2022 Upper ridge will amplify across the central plains today then slowly shift eastward through the weekend.
An isolated shower or storm may be possible near VCT early this afternoon but opted to not include in the TAFs at this time as confidence is on the low-end. Another warm day is in store with high temps settling into the low 90s along the coast to around 100 degrees out west. Upper level ridging remains in control on Saturday with temps pretty similar to what we will see today. Latest guidance hints at a few pockets of deeper moisture moving inland Saturday morning as some H85 energy glides along the edge of the ridge.
Today through tonight: A slight shifting/weakening of the hot subtropical ridge is expected to take place over the forecast area as we go into the weekend, but the effects on the heat and humidity will be negligible, and have thus maintained the heat advisory through early this evening. We start to see some changes later in the day as the upper ridge axis that has been in control of our local weather for several days retrogrades westward. The upper ridge will sharpen and narrow, bookended by upper lows over both the east and west coasts. The eastern upper low, with its trough axis draped across New England, will allow for a substantially drier airmass to move southward in its wake.
SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday): 500mb ridging anchored over the Plains will continue to provide subsidence across deep south Texas through the period. At the surface, broad high pressure across the northern Gulf of Mexico will maintain generally a weak east to southeast surface flow across the region through Saturday.
/issued 432 AM CDT Fri Jun 17 2022/ SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday): 500mb ridging anchored over the Plains will continue to provide subsidence across deep south Texas through the period. At the surface, broad high pressure across the northern Gulf of Mexico will maintain generally a weak east to southeast surface flow across the region through Saturday.
431 AM MDT Fri Jun 17 2022 At the surface, high pressure sits in northeastern SD, with return flow moving into the region today. Upper level ridge is sitting over the northern plains, and will slowly move eastward over the weekend.
Outflow with the MCS will bring some cooling along with lower dew points this morning, and then the cold front will begin to push southward this afternoon bringing slightly cooler air and lower dew points as well. The cold front will slide through southern MO and southern IL this evening in response to deepening of the upper trof from eastern Canada through the northeast quarter of the Nation. Glass A slowly progressive omega block will dominate the CONUS this weekend with a prominent upper trof along the eastern seaboard, and the upper ridge/upper high having retrograded initially by Saturday to a position centered through the Plains into Canada.
Upper ridge axis has moved east of the CWA into western South Dakota and west central Nebraska this morning. Given the high based inverted V soundings across the CWA this afternoon.
These showers are mainly were mainly due to an upper level low that has cut off and is situated just off the southeast Florida coast. In addition, a mean layered ridge sits across the southern half of the U. Due to the presence of the aforementioned ridge, we will continue to see a northeast wind through this afternoon.
As an upper level trough continues to meander around the Western Pacific through the end of the work week, deep southerly flow will continue to pump very warm air into the region. This push of warm air will result in widespread highs in the mid 80s to over 90 degrees today, with just slightly cooler temperatures on Saturday.
721 AM EDT Fri Jun 17 2022 Areas of low clouds and valley fog over Northern and Eastern Pennsylvania early this morning will be swept clean by a cold front moving southeast from Lake Erie and an increasing westerly wind, gusting over 25 mph later this morning and this afternoon. Much cooler air and unseasonably low daytime humidity will move into the region for later today, right through the upcoming weekend.
After isolated severe possible today, Saturday could be a beast with NCEP SREF plumes for MU/ML CAPE pushing into the 750-1k j/kg range along with a respectable shear as a trough digs slowly through the Great Basin north of us.
This influx of warm air will build a ridge over us this morning, bring in drier air aloft, and also increase our chances for sunshine to start the day.
1049 AM EDT Fri Jun 17 2022 Lee trough is situated across east central GA. MCS across the Ohio Valley will likely ride along the periphery of the ridge and interact with the front. The mid level high pressure center will shift west through the period.
Humboldt County will be significantly cooler today with lighter winds. Trough energy settles in along the west coast today, with a southerly jet spreading over NV. The cooling trend continues on Saturday as the trough energy along the west coast drifts onshore into Oregon and California. By Saturday afternoon the base of the trough begins to nose into western NV. As the trough begins to move into western NV on Saturday there will be a slight chance for showers and thunderstorms over portions of northern NV, mainly north of I80.
632 AM CDT Fri Jun 17 2022 Upper level high pressure will dominate through the period with widespread VFR conditions. Tonight through Saturday night Not a lot of appreciable changes will be forth coming this morning as a robust upper level ridge will continue to dominate. Precipitation chances are somewhat better on Saturday as a weak cold front backdoors the state from northeast to southwest. While temperatures will be slightly cooler on Saturday, the bigger story will be the drier air moving in behind the boundary.
611 AM EDT Fri Jun 17 2022 Cooler and less humid conditions are expected today, although most locations will still remain slightly above normal for high temperatures this afternoon.
459 AM MDT Fri Jun 17 2022 Upper level ridging will continue its collapse this morning as a deep amplitude Pacific low pushes ashore in California. High resolution models are advertising considerable rainfall across the higher terrain through the weekend with 12 hour rainfall totals over an inch in some locales.
609 AM CDT Fri Jun 17 2022 A weak warm front is draped across Northern Kansas and Southern Nebraska this morning keeping the winds out of the south over the region. There is also a strong high pressure ridge building into the region complimented by a strong trough coming into the Pacific Northwest.
Temperatures are in the lower 80s across the island chain, with dewpoints in the lower to mid 70s. Mean layer ridging will remain roughly in the same spot over the southeastern United States for the next several days.
Sfc cold front currently located just northwest of the area will slowly propagate sewd this morning. This will make for a more comfortable day coincident with abundant sunshine due to high pressure. A much cooler weekend is forecast with broad troughing in New England reinforcing nwly flow in the Ohio Valley. Clouds will clear for the remainder of the weekend as large scale high pressure remains the prominent feature. Long range model ensembles indicate a warm stretch is likely with a stagnant ridge in the Mississippi Valley. Periodic precipitation chance is likely beginning late-week as low pressure in Canada may lend a frontal passage. VFR conditions expected through the TAF period with winds veering to the NW as a dry cold front drops south across the region.
238 PM CDT Fri Jun 17 2022 Key Messages: - Hot start to the week - Possible precipitation chances through the week Increasing Heat to Start the Week: An amplified upper level pattern will shift east over the weekend, with an upper level ridge building across the central U.
Breezy and cooler into Saturday with below normal temperatures.
Southerly flow aloft will continue to increase as the Northern Rockies remain on the ascent side of a Pacific upper level low. For this reason, the High Wind Warning for Beaverhead and Madison counties will remain as is. /ISSUED 550 AM MDT Fri Jun 17 2022/ As an upper level trough continues to meander around the Western Pacific through the end of the work week, deep southerly flow will continue to pump very warm air into the region. This push of warm air will result in widespread highs in the mid 80s to over 90 degrees today, with just slightly cooler temperatures on Saturday.
The summer mid-level ridge keeps its grip on Deep South Texas through Saturday providing the typical hot and humid conditions the Rio Grande Valley is accustom to for mid June. A small cluster of showers over Tamaulipas State and adjacent coastal waters this morning have pretty much dissipated but current radar is beginning to show very isolated showers developing over the Lower and Mid RGV with just enough surface moisture and instability due to the heat (again very typical of mid-June). A weak disturbance rounding the base of the sprawling ridge could combine with the summer sea breeze to ignite a few more showers Saturday afternoon.
1253 PM PDT Fri Jun 17 2022 Breezy and much cooler weather is expected today. High temperatures this afternoon will be sixteen to eighteen degrees cooler than yesterday afternoon.