Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Gusty winds will diminish this evening and become more northerly overnight with influence from high pressure. Despite veering low-level flow to the northwest later this afternoon and more efficient CAA, a modest warm up will be felt felt as temperatures rise into the lower 50s for a high (cooler for locations along the shoreline). A strong pressure gradient ahead of the high pressure will promote wind gusts on the order of 25-30 mph today, during daylight hours. High pressure in place over southern Michigan Saturday morning with strong confluence aloft and antecedent dry conditions will promote another round of sunny skies Saturday with highs in the upper 40s. A relaxed pressure gradient will limit gust potential through the day as high pressure gradually drags south into the Ohio Valley.
1003 AM EST Fri Mar 12 2021 High pressure will remain across the region today. A weak backdoor cold front will drop into the area Saturday morning and likely linger in the vicinity through the weekend. Expect another unseasonably warm day under high pressure with mainly just a few mid/high clouds. A developing sea breeze this afternoon will keep immediate coastal temps significantly cooler in the mid to upper 60s. Tonight: High pressure will prevail but a weak backdoor cold front should push into SC late, although it will remain too dry for any rainfall. Lows will generally be in the lower to mid 50s inland and mid to upper 50s closer to the coast.
Upper ridging will persist through the near term period. Highs Saturday afternoon will then be in the lower to mid 80s inland areas under mostly sunny skies, and in the mid to upper 70s closer to the coast.
Afternoon visible satellite imagery does show some scattering out of the low cloud deck, with mid to high level clouds embedded in the Pacific moisture fetch continuing to stream across the region.
This evening and into tonight as the upper level low continues to move east and we begin to see the affects of the large scale ascent combined with the intensifying LLJ we could see strong to severe thunderstorms develop. Given the high PWs present any supercells that do develop cause localized flooding. As the deep upper low to our west moves across northern Arizona tonight and then into NM early tomorrow morning large scale ascent will be over the area. An associated Pacific cold front will concurrently sweep eastward through the CWA starting tomorrow morning.
Area soundings revealed a strong capping inversion this morning, and they also showed that the trend continues for warming/moistening in the lower levels. /EC/ Prior discussion below: Today and Tonight: High pressure, off the east coast, will keep southerly winds over the area through the period with slowly increasing low level moisture. Despite the increase in moisture, ridging aloft will maintain the mid level warm layer preventing any convective potential. With the southerly low level flow and ridging aloft, temperatures will continue to be warm with highs today in the upper 70s/lower 80s.
So, at least it won't feel summertime out there despite highs in the low to mid 80s.
A strong 500 mb high is centered over the Central Gulf this morning, with a ridge extending across the FL Panhandle and SE Alabama. At the surface, an east-west oriented ridge is located squarely over the service area, leading to light winds.
955 AM PST Fri Mar 12 2021 A low pressure system over southern California will continue to move slowly east. Drier with slow warming for the weekend under weak high pressure.
Temperatures as of 2 PM are running in the lower 50s north of I 96 with readings in the upper 50s to near 60 across Metro Detroit down to the Ohio border. The other feature of interest is a cold front now slipping southward through the Thumb. The cold front is expected to backdoor southward from MBS to PHN by 22Z, then coast southward nocturnally (by 2Z). Models show impressive, anomalous upper level ridge development over all of North America.
1154 AM CST Fri Mar 12 2021 Updated for 18Z aviation discussion 18Z TAF discussion: Persistence is a fairly good forecast right now with southerly flow continuing to moisten the lower levels over the forecast area. /EC/ Area soundings revealed a strong capping inversion this morning, and they also showed that the trend continues for warming/moistening in the lower levels. /EC/ Prior discussion below: Today and Tonight: High pressure, off the east coast, will keep southerly winds over the area through the period with slowly increasing low level moisture. Despite the increase in moisture, ridging aloft will maintain the mid level warm layer preventing any convective potential. With the southerly low level flow and ridging aloft, temperatures will continue to be warm with highs today in the upper 70s/lower 80s.
1210 PM CST Fri Mar 12 2021 (Today and tonight) A closed upper level low currently over southern California, will track east to near the Four Corners region by Saturday morning. Most of the activity is expected to remain farther north and west though, so will keep POPs on the low side. Expect another warm night, with overnight lows in the lower 60s.
as a parade of reinforcing cold fronts will drop south across our forecast area. High pressure just to our west on Saturday will guarantee fair dry weather.
As the low level jet begins to strengthen this evening, expect clusters of strong thunderstorms to develop near the Interstate 44 corridor with the potential for training storms over northeast Oklahoma and far northwest Arkansas. Main upper low will approach from the west Saturday night with a wide band of showers moving into eastern Oklahoma.
1114 AM CST Fri Mar 12 2021 Fairly quiet weather will occur across the region today and tonight thanks to a large area of high pressure at the surface. The high is centered over North Dakota early this morning and will drift east and become centered over lower Michigan tonight. The ridge axis will become oriented east/west along the Interstate 90 corridor back into South Dakota.
1030 AM CST Fri Mar 12 2021 Warm front has moved north to near the I-44 corridor in northeast Oklahoma this morning and is making its way north across northwest Arkansas.
343 PM EST Fri Mar 12 2021 High pressure will provide dry and cool weather over the weekend.
118 PM EST Fri Mar 12 2021 A weak cold front will move southeast across the area this evening.
A tight pressure gradient due to high pressure to the east and low pressure over west Texas will continue to bring breezy southeasterly winds into Deep South Texas and keep temperatures warm.
IFR conditions continue north of the warm front at KBVO late this morning and this trend is expected to continue through the period as the frontal boundary is forecast to remain south of this site. /Issued 1030 AM CST Fri Mar 12 2021/ Warm front has moved north to near the I-44 corridor in northeast Oklahoma this morning and is making its way north across northwest Arkansas.
Yet another wave of moderate to locally heavy rain will be possible tonight on the cold/north side of the surface front that slipped through the region last night as another piece of energy rotates atop a weak mid-level ridge setting up just west of the MS River.
311 PM CST Fri Mar 12 2021 Another quiet night ahead with our area under the influence of surface ridging centered just to our east. Winds will be light southeasterly tonight on the backside of the high, and with warm air advection and a few mid level clouds readings will be milder than last night. Our attention then turns to the massive upper level low which will develop over the Rockies on Saturday, shifting into the Plains on Saturday night. Saturday will be another mild day, although clouds will be increasing, and highs will reach into the lower to mid 50s once again.
Cold front is currently across north Mississippi. /issued 338 PM CST Fri Mar 12 2021/ A weak cold front has moved south of I-40 in west Tennessee and is along I-40 in east Arkansas. This feature may sink a little farther south this afternoon, but will return north as a warm front late tonight in response to a deepening upper level low over the Desert Southwest. We should see an increase in showers north of the warm front tonight and a decrease in showers south of the front.
535 PM CST Fri Mar 12 2021 (This evening through Saturday) Latest observations show the warm front draped across central Oklahoma from near Stillwater - OKC - Elk City with dewpoints in the mid-60's south of the boundary.
931 PM EST Fri Mar 12 2021 Strong high pressure continues to build into the Upper Mississippi Valley and the Western Great Lakes region late this evening. with current readings ranging from the lower 20s across parts of eastern upper Michigan, to the lower 40s down near Saginaw Bay. High pressure will pass directly across our area tonight, pushing into the northern Ohio Valley on Saturday. In addition, a moisture starved cold front moves through Saturday evening bringing another shot of cooler air.
/issued 338 PM CST Fri Mar 12 2021/ A weak cold front has moved south of I-40 in west Tennessee and is along I-40 in east Arkansas. This feature may sink a little farther south this afternoon, but will return north as a warm front late tonight in response to a deepening upper level low over the Desert Southwest. We should see an increase in showers north of the warm front tonight and a decrease in showers south of the front.
Deep upper low continues to slowly inch across the Southwest CONUS, directing plentiful moisture towards the central and southern Plains. More numerous showers will begin to increase during the day tomorrow, particularly farther west towards central Kansas as the upper low begins to shift eastward. A few storms could be embedded in these showers across central Kansas, as some elevated instability works into the area ahead of the upper trough.
High clouds have overspread the area today as a cutoff upper level low slowly lumbers towards the area.
920 PM EST Fri Mar 12 2021 High pressure will provide dry and cool weather over the weekend.
Otherwise, a dry and stable environment under high pressure ensures clear skies this taf period. Temperatures as of 2 PM are running in the lower 50s north of I 96 with readings in the upper 50s to near 60 across Metro Detroit down to the Ohio border. The other feature of interest is a cold front now slipping southward through the Thumb. The cold front is expected to backdoor southward from MBS to PHN by 22Z, then coast southward nocturnally (by 2Z). Models show impressive, anomalous upper level ridge development over all of North America.
338 PM CST Fri Mar 12 2021 A weak cold front has moved south of I-40 in west Tennessee and is along I-40 in east Arkansas. This feature may sink a little farther south this afternoon, but will return north as a warm front late tonight in response to a deepening upper level low over the Desert Southwest. We should see an increase in showers north of the warm front tonight and a decrease in showers south of the front.
Temps will again be on the cooler side tonight with mid 50s expected again tomorrow.
320 PM CST Fri Mar 12 2021 Yet another wave of moderate to locally heavy rain will be possible tonight on the cold/north side of the surface front that slipped through the region last night as another piece of energy rotates atop a weak mid-level ridge setting up just west of the MS River.
944 PM EST Fri Mar 12 2021 A cold front over lower Michigan will move across the area tonight.
Southwest flow aloft slowly amplifies throughout the day on Saturday as upper ridging shifts farther downstream ahead of a potent upper cyclone over the Four Corners. Not until after midnight do we see the cap begin weakening following the departure of a thermal ridge at 700 mb. Better mid-level cooling/height falls follow during the pre-dawn hours along with a Pacific cold front.
157 PM PST Fri Mar 12 2021 A low pressure system over southern California will continue to move slowly east. Drier with slow warming for the weekend under weak high pressure.
359 PM CST Fri Mar 12 2021 Deep upper low continues to slowly inch across the Southwest CONUS, directing plentiful moisture towards the central and southern Plains. More numerous showers will begin to increase during the day tomorrow, particularly farther west towards central Kansas as the upper low begins to shift eastward. A few storms could be embedded in these showers across central Kansas, as some elevated instability works into the area ahead of the upper trough.
Models have been rather persistent in developing a ridge over the area Saturday afternoon in to the evening which would help shift the rain north of the area.
419 PM MST Fri Mar 12 2021 Water vapor shows weak upper ridge extending from the Northern Rockies through the Northern Plains. Strong upper low over the southwestern US is nudging northeast. Main concern remains heavy wet snow amounts associated with upper low. Upper low will begin accelerating northeast tonight and Saturday as another low digs from the Gulf of Alaska. Relatively benign wx expected tonight, with some light rain/snow beginning to push in from the southwest on Saturday as upper low pushes into the central Rockies.
Otherwise, quiet and light winds in place with water vapor imagery showing a ridge extending from offshore waters of CA to northern ID. The upper-level ridge moves slight east then tomorrow with the ridge still overhead. In addition, highs will be reading a few degrees warmer tomorrow compared to today followed by more seasonable lows tomorrow night.
Expect patchy fog to remain overnight as cooler airmass filters into the region. Chattanooga Airport, TN 56 69 52 77 53 / 30 20 10 10 20 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 51 60 51 67 49 / 60 50 30 20 20 Oak Ridge, TN 51 60 50 66 47 / 60 50 30 20 20 Tri Cities Airport, TN 46 59 45 58 43 / 40 20 40 40 20.
Upper level ridging across the Pacific Northwest will continue to bring dry and warm weather to Western Washington through Saturday.
High pressure surface and aloft over the region will continue into the weekend with warming temperatures and rain free conditions. So, at least it won't feel summertime out there despite highs in the low to mid 80s.
The ridge axis of high pressure over the west Atlantic is currently located just to the north of the local area. Lucie and Martin counties where lows will reach in the low 60s.
(This evening through Saturday) Latest observations show the warm front draped across central Oklahoma from near Stillwater - OKC - Elk City with dewpoints in the mid-60's south of the boundary.
621 PM EST Fri Mar 12 2021 A cold front over lower Michigan will move across the area tonight.
Saturday winds will turn more west and then northwest Saturday as a weak trough moves through.
temperatures still manage to climbed into the low 80s in most locations which was a departure from the normal lower 70s that we should expect for this time of year. This warmer weather is expected to continue into Saturday as a stubborn ridge of high pressure aloft and at the surface continues to hang tough. Highs will be about the same as today perhaps a bit warmer where less clouds may be found.
538 PM CST Fri Mar 12 2021 Another quiet night ahead with our area under the influence of surface ridging centered just to our east. Winds will be light southeasterly tonight on the backside of the high, and with warm air advection and a few mid level clouds readings will be milder than last night. Our attention then turns to the massive upper level low which will develop over the Rockies on Saturday, shifting into the Plains on Saturday night. Saturday will be another mild day, although clouds will be increasing, and highs will reach into the lower to mid 50s once again.
307 PM CST Fri Mar 12 2021 High clouds have overspread the area today as a cutoff upper level low slowly lumbers towards the area.
607 PM EST Fri Mar 12 2021 High pressure will provide dry and cool weather over the weekend.
SE winds 10-12kts will diminish to around 5-7 kts this evening, with BPT likely the higher of this range. temperatures still manage to climbed into the low 80s in most locations which was a departure from the normal lower 70s that we should expect for this time of year. This warmer weather is expected to continue into Saturday as a stubborn ridge of high pressure aloft and at the surface continues to hang tough. Highs will be about the same as today perhaps a bit warmer where less clouds may be found.
239 PM MST Fri Mar 12 2021 Water vapor shows weak upper ridge extending from the Northern Rockies through the Northern Plains. Strong upper low over the southwestern US is nudging northeast. Main concern remains heavy wet snow amounts associated with upper low. Upper low will begin accelerating northeast tonight and Saturday as another low digs from the Gulf of Alaska. Relatively benign wx expected tonight, with some light rain/snow beginning to push in from the southwest on Saturday as upper low pushes into the central Rockies.
Warm and dry conditions and light winds will continue today as high pressure remains overhead. The warming trend continues with high temperatures today forecast to climb into the low to mid 80s and low temperatures tonight forecast in the mid 50s.
Most short term guidance is developing decent mid level cloud cover with this by the evening, and when combined with the front this may limit temperatures a bit in north GA, keeping us in the 70s, versus central GA which should climb into the lower 80s.
1018 PM MST Fri Mar 12 2021 Water vapor shows weak upper ridge extending from the Northern Rockies through the Northern Plains. Strong upper low over the southwestern US is nudging northeast. Main concern remains heavy wet snow amounts associated with upper low. Upper low will begin accelerating northeast tonight and Saturday as another low digs from the Gulf of Alaska. Relatively benign wx expected tonight, with some light rain/snow beginning to push in from the southwest on Saturday as upper low pushes into the central Rockies.
341 AM EST Sat Mar 13 2021 A strong 1033 high pressure system centered directly over southern Michigan with a moisture-starved atmospheric column (PW values under a tenth of an inch) will bring another round of mostly sunny skies to Southeast Michigan today. Daytime highs in the lower 50s remain achievable. Otherwise, a strengthening pressure gradient will coincide with peak diurnal heating later this afternoon as the center of high pressure sags south into the Ohio Valley.
924 PM PST Fri Mar 12 2021 A low pressure system over southern California will finally move east of the region on Saturday.
307 AM EST Sat Mar 13 2021 A band of >1" precipitable water values from the southern Plains to the Tennessee Valley coincident with low-mid level convergence north of a surface boundary from the Texas Panhandle to the South Carolina Lowcountry, helped along by 5H energy spilling over the top of an upper ridge above the Gulf of Mexico, will continue to result in patchy light rain over southern Kentucky today. Tonight surface ridging from the Beaufort Sea through the Great Lakes to the mid-Atlantic coast will keep us mostly dry as it suppresses rain to our south and west.
1254 AM EST Sat Mar 13 2021 High pressure will provide dry and cool weather over the weekend.
355 AM EST Sat Mar 13 2021 A strong 1033 high pressure system centered directly over southern Michigan with a moisture-starved atmospheric column (PW values under a tenth of an inch) will bring another round of mostly sunny skies to Southeast Michigan today. Daytime highs in the lower 50s remain achievable. Otherwise, a strengthening pressure gradient will coincide with peak diurnal heating later this afternoon as the center of high pressure sags south into the Ohio Valley.
333 AM EST Sat Mar 13 2021 High pressure both surface and aloft over the region will remain in place through the weekend, with warm temperatures and rain-free conditions.
250 AM CST Sat Mar 13 2021 08Z water vapor imagery showed the closed upper low over western AZ while southwesterly flow aloft remained over the southern and central plains. Surface ridging centered over the upper MS river valley continued to nose into the central plains keeping and easterly wind across the forecast area and the deeper surface moisture south along a stalled frontal boundary in central OK. Models indicate another perturbation kicking out from the base of the upper low today with another wave of theta-e advection at 850MB.
1150 PM EST Fri Mar 12 2021 Dry and stable environment under high pressure ensures clear skies this taf period. Temperatures as of 2 PM are running in the lower 50s north of I 96 with readings in the upper 50s to near 60 across Metro Detroit down to the Ohio border. The other feature of interest is a cold front now slipping southward through the Thumb. The cold front is expected to backdoor southward from MBS to PHN by 22Z, then coast southward nocturnally (by 2Z). Models show impressive, anomalous upper level ridge development over all of North America.
355 AM EST Sat Mar 13 2021 High pressure will provide dry and cool weather over the weekend.
Expect patchy fog to remain overnight as cooler airmass filters into the region. Chattanooga Airport, TN 69 52 77 53 68 / 20 20 10 20 80 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 60 51 67 49 67 / 50 40 20 20 70 Oak Ridge, TN 60 50 66 47 67 / 50 50 20 20 80 Tri Cities Airport, TN 59 45 58 43 59 / 20 20 40 20 50.
An area of low pressure will continue to bring rain and snow to central and eastern Arizona tonight, then much of the area on Saturday.
Additionally, a strong temperature gradient will be apparent through tomorrow with those to the north seeing highs 10 to 15 degrees cooler compared to our southern counties.
1059 PM CST Fri Mar 12 2021 (This evening through Saturday) Latest observations show the warm front draped across central Oklahoma from near Stillwater - OKC - Elk City with dewpoints in the mid-60's south of the boundary.
1049 PM CST Fri Mar 12 2021 Another quiet night ahead with our area under the influence of surface ridging centered just to our east. Winds will be light southeasterly tonight on the backside of the high, and with warm air advection and a few mid level clouds readings will be milder than last night. Our attention then turns to the massive upper level low which will develop over the Rockies on Saturday, shifting into the Plains on Saturday night. Saturday will be another mild day, although clouds will be increasing, and highs will reach into the lower to mid 50s once again.
Satellite imagery shows high pressure aloft from the PacNW to northern Rockies (hence our dry wx) and a cut off low evolving over the southwest U. As the low moves to the central Rockies we will see easterly flow deepen, and latest models suggest a chance of light upslope precip in Sheridan county by late tomorrow afternoon or evening.
936 PM CST Fri Mar 12 2021 (Issued 937 PM CST Fri Mar 12 2021) High pressure currently over WI will move to far southern Lake MI over to Lake Erie for Sat. Swly winds and warm advection will boost temps into the lower to middle 50s for the afternoon.
After a cold start will see high temperatures Saturday 3-8 degrees warmer than today.
1145 PM EST Fri Mar 12 2021 Strong high pressure continues to build into the Upper Mississippi Valley and the Western Great Lakes region late this evening. with current readings ranging from the lower 20s across parts of eastern upper Michigan, to the lower 40s down near Saginaw Bay. High pressure will pass directly across our area tonight, pushing into the northern Ohio Valley on Saturday. In addition, a moisture starved cold front moves through Saturday evening bringing another shot of cooler air.
1235 AM EST Sat Mar 13 2021 A cold front over lower Michigan will move across the area tonight.
Upper level high pressure will remain over the region for continued mostly clear to partly cloudy skies with mild temperatures and relatively light winds.
Satellite imagery shows a deep upper low moving across the state early this morning.