Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
WV imagery and 12Z upper air analysis indicate a slightly negatively tilted upper level trough of low pressure shifting slowly eastward across the Northern Rockies and the Great Basin setting up an increasingly difluent southwest flow aloft across the Western High Plains. Near the surface, a lee side trough of low pressure is strengthening across eastern Colorado. This will be partially a result of deepening low pressure across northeast Colorado through the day in response to the approaching Pacific low pressure now diving though Nevada. However the better chance for convective initiation supporting severe storms appears more likely on Tuesday afternoon, in the extreme eastern counties, as the cold front moves across the area. Cooler conditions area are forecast following the cold front.
311 PM EDT MON OCT 3 2016 High pressure will be over the area into tuesday then shift into new england the rest of the work week.
A negatively tilted upper level trough will lift northeast from the central rockies into the northern high plains this afternoon/evening and into southeast Montana tonight. The latest iterations of short term models have become more impressive with the low level shear over southwest into west central ND from mid afternoon into this evening. The thunderstorm threat also diminishes as you move east into south central ND with the decrease in forcing associated with the strong upper trough.
Upper-level ridge in place to maintain sufficient subsidence to maintain dry conditions for the next several days with high temperatures gradually creeping up into the upper 80s. Upper-ridge to gradually break down on Tuesday afternoon allowing for more of a zonal flow across the region.
Aloft a broad trough will begin to push slightly eastward into our region, as a strong ridge develops east of the Mississippi River.
An upper level trough extending from the Tennessee Valley region to the central Gulf of Mexico will shift eastward and weaken over the next 24 hours followed by weak upper ridging building over the region.
1132 AM MDT Mon Oct 3 2016 UPDATED AVIATION The upper level low pressure trof will continue to move towards the forecast zones and widespread precipitation will continue.
Otherwise, the forecast area will remain under the influence of low level high pressure, resulting in continued dry and partly sunny conditions. Highs tomorrow will be a few degrees warmer than today, topping out in the upper 70s to lower 80s in most valley locations. Dry and mild conditions will continue across the area through the end of the week as a low level ridge extends from the Mid Atlantic region across the Southern Appalachians.
Low level warm advection will boost temps into the lower 80s today, with a lake breeze expected during the afternoon.
653 AM EDT TUE AUG 23 2016 Cool high pressure will build into the area from the west through today. It will move off into the Atlantic on Wednesday, with warmer temperatures arriving on southwesterly winds.
We can look forward to drying out a bit for a couple or few days until that next cold front crossing the Rockies now moves down our way. The upper level high can be seen well rotating on the water vapor this morning, centered over NE TX and expanding Northward. Otherwise, just a slight chance for an afternoon sea breeze push with ridge doing a little more suppressing of afternoon cu for the first time in over a week. Our pwat last night was the lowest in a while, but still 1. The green up and lower soil temperature of late will keep the lower 90s for most sites today.
A slight warming trend can be expected through midweek as high pressure builds off of the California coast. Conditions cool further late in the week as another upper level trough impacts the West Coast.
134 AM EDT TUE AUG 23 2016 High pressure resides over the Mid Atlantic Region tonight through mid week. High pressure then slides offshore later in the week. Cooler/comfortable temps tonight with lows in the upper 50s to lower 60s NW to mid-upper 60s SE (70-74 beaches) and dewpoints in the mid-upper 50s to lower 60s (mid 60s beaches). Meanwhile, mid-upper level ridging gradually amplifies over the area, and onshore/NE-E winds averaging 10 mph will persist at the immediate coast with highest speeds around 15 mph anticipated from Wachapreague, VA to Duck, NC during this timeframe. Highs Tue in the low-mid 80s. Slightly warmer Wed with highs in the mid 80s inland. The quiet weather will continue into the end of the week and into the weekend as upper ridging builds across the eastern US.
Northwest flow aloft will usher in drier and more stable conditions today as the region is positioned between eastern Pacific ridging and an upper low across the northern Plains.
High Pressure will extend across the region through the week. High pressure will remain over the region today and tonight. Mid-level ridging will strengthen, centered over the southern mid- Atlantic states (NC/VA) mid to late week.
341 AM EDT TUE AUG 23 2016 High pressure will move off the east coast Wednesday.
504 AM EDT TUE AUG 23 2016 High pressure will build along the east coast today. High pressure will move east of the region later Wednesday.
Overnight lows will range from the mid 60s west of Dodge City to the low to mid 70s across parts of south central Kansas.
In the upper levels, ridging is over the Southeast today. At the surface, a weak cold front is still lingering over the region stretched out in an east-west fashion.
Lows tonight will drop into the low 70s inland to upper 70s near the coast. Highs on Tuesday climb into the low to mid 90s inland to around 90 near the coast.
A model blend suggests a 10-15% chance across the region, but given that it likely would be very light and have some dry air to overcome first, keeping pops this low seems reasonable. For the day Wednesday, the question mark will be how strong the ridge aloft is over the Deep South.
However the slow moving trough will continue to allow some nocturnal convection through the late night hours. While a modest amount of moisture will remain over the area on Wednesday, a downturn in showers and thunderstorms is expected as Tue's trough moves east of the area. This will mainly focus on the higher terrain, especially along the Continental Divide. A series of low pressure disturbances will pass along the US/Canada border and will act to reinforce a mean low pressure trough over the western CONUS into the weekend at least.
This activity is due some lingering moisture and weak instability off the lower Texas coast. Water vapor imagery indicates an east to west elongated 500 mb ridge over the northern Gulf of Mexico this morning. This mid to upper level ridge will continue to build over the region through the forecast period.
a warm overnight period persists as the area sits out ahead of a lee-side trough on the edge of the Front Range. Otherwise mainly clear skies will persist as temps range in the mid 60s thru the lower 70s w/ a southerly wind over much of the CWA. the forecast area will expect to see the lee-side trough work its way eastward off the Front Range during the day today.
303 AM CDT TUE AUG 23 2016 North and Central Texas should continue to see a relatively dry pattern for much of the week, as the subtropical upper high over the southeast CONUS continues to expanding westward over the area. Meanwhile, a broad longwave upper trough was over the western U.
High Pressure will extend across the region through the week.
414 AM EDT TUE AUG 23 2016 Weak frontal boundary remains just south of the area with drier and slightly cooler air over much of the region. Front will continue to slowly slide southward over the next couple of days as high pressure builds into the area. Weak frontal boundary just south of the forecast area will continue sliding slowly southward today as high pressure north of the region ridges into the forecast area. This will keep drier and slightly cooler air over the area and with higher moisture over the CSRA.
A stationary boundary in northern Louisiana will move northward as a warm front overnight.
438 AM CDT TUE AUG 23 2016 A low pressure system is located across southern Saskatchewan this morning with a couple of waves rotating about it. The trough to our west is attempting to establish a closed circulation. The trough axis will remain to our west today leaving us southwesterly flow aloft. Into the evening hours, however, there are some hints that winds will start to back just a little as the trough axis nudges a bit closer.
However, an upper level low currently positioned near the southern tip of Nevada is forecast to swing eastward across the region later tonight and tomorrow. This low is responsible for a large line of storms currently pushing into far northwest Arizona. This upper low will drift through northern Arizona on Tuesday, with even colder air aloft.
With an upper level trough of low pressure closer to the region by 0Z, mid-level temps should cool off allowing for convection to develop. The upper trough across southern Canada will move quickly out of the region late this week and allow west to southwest flow to develop quickly across the area.
Mid level ridging will continue over the Central Gulf Coast while high pressure spins in the Central Gulf as a front sags into North FL. High pressure bridging a front sagging into north FL tonight will provide prevailing north or northeast winds for the next couple of day.
336 AM EDT TUE AUG 23 2016 High pressure shifts east today. Increasingly warmer and more humid air as the week progresses. before the next cold front approaches later in the week. ridging at the surface and aloft will continue to dominate through tonight with tranquil weather. So after early morning dense river valley fog under this high pressure. models indicate dry weather with high pressure will still hang on. Warm frontal boundary will move northeast through area Wednesday. with warmer temperatures.
Aloft a upper level low was moving into Alberta Province while the associated upper trough extended south into Oregon. Tonight the low level jet will transport moisture northward into eastern Kansas. Isentropic lift in the 305K to 310K layer may generate some elevated showers and thunderstorms across east central Kansas while a weak wave ejecting out of the western trough may generate an isolated shower or thunderstorm late in the night across north central Kansas. The low level jet will veer to the southwest late tonight and early Tuesday with the lift shifting off into Missouri by mid morning. This will move a cold front east and southeast across the Plains and moving it into central Nebraska and northwest Kansas by late afternoon. Highs on Tuesday will be in the mid upper 80s with the warmer reading across north central Kansas.
Anticyclone centered aloft of northern FL early today will retrograde toward the mid MS coast overnight, placing CWA within the eastern flank. At the surface, ridge axis associated with east coast high pressure will extend into FL panhandle later today/tonight, increasing and deepening NE flow.
Water vapor imagery shows a flat upper level ridge extending from Texas across the Gulf South. Upper air analysis did show decent height rises at both 50H and 70H across the region which suggests the mid/upper level ridge is strengthening. Expect upper level ridge to strengthen and expand across the forecast area for today into tomorrow. The upper level ridge shifts to the northeast over and will be centered over the Southeast U.
648 AM EDT TUE AUG 23 2016 Fair and pleasant weather continues today before turning warmer and more humid through mid week.
Shower and thunderstorm chances will increase late tonight as high pressure moves farther east and Gulf moisture is drawn up ahead of the next cold front.
502 AM EDT TUE AUG 23 2016 Upper air pattern consists of a closed 500 mb low over southern Alberta with a trough in New England and a 500 mb ridge across the sern U.
652 AM EDT TUE AUG 23 2016 Weak frontal boundary remains just south of the area with drier and slightly cooler air over much of the region. Front will continue to slowly slide southward over the next couple of days as high pressure builds into the area. Weak frontal boundary just south of the forecast area will continue sliding slowly southward today as high pressure north of the region ridges into the forecast area. This will keep drier and slightly cooler air over the area and with higher moisture over the CSRA.
where sfc dewpoints in the lower/mid 70s were common. Persistent SLY wind flow wl bring warmer and more humid airmass back into the region thru the middle of the week.
The attention will then turn further upstream to the cold front developing across the high Plains. A few models surge 0-1km shear and SRH near a subtle warm front.
Surface analysis early this morning places a warm front from Northeast Texas, Northern Louisiana, Central Mississippi and Southern Alabama. As of 3 am CDT, temperatures across the Mid-South range from the lower to middle 60s across portions of West Tennessee near the Tennessee River, and mainly upper 60s to lower 70s elsewhere. A warm front over Northern Louisiana and Central Mississippi will migrate back north across the Mid-South today. Short term models suggest a ridge of high pressure will develop across portions of the Southeast United States.
Upper trough tracking east towards the forecast area from the Great Basin region and the southwestern states will move across the Four Corners region by late today. The upper trough will remain over the central and southern Rockies Wednesday. A cold front will track southeast out of western Kansas and southeastern Colorado by late tonight and then gradually southeast into the Oklahoma and the northwest Texas Panhandle by Wednesday afternoon or early Wednesday evening.
352 AM EDT TUE AUG 23 2016 High pressure will remain centered just east of the region today, providing dry conditions. A warm front will move into the area on Wednesday, along with an increase in moisture.
The ridge aloft builds over the southern states Wednesday with a shift in the best moisture occurring favoring n and w GA. BDL High pressure aloft and at the surface will influence extended periods weather.
617 AM EDT TUE AUG 23 2016 High pressure will move off the east coast Wednesday.
A cold front that move through Northeast Montana earlier tonight has triggered isolated showers over the forecast area. Upper low in southern Alberta early this morning will move across southern Saskatchewan today and tonight. Temperatures will be 15 to 20 degrees cooler than yesterday. On Wednesday, some moisture moves south into the forecast area as the upper low moves into southern Manitoba. Temperatures will remain cooler than normal with cloudy skies.
Low pressure in north central ND and cold front will enter DVL basin this morning and into the RRV mid to late aftn.
Within/under them, are surface dew points in the lower 70s.
330 AM PDT TUE AUG 23 2016 Low level onshore flow will continue to weaken as a strengthening upper level ridge exerts its influence over Western Washington.
A cold front continues to push into central North Dakota this morning. The cold front is expected to shift into the southern James River Valley 18z-21z today. Quite the density gradient with dewpoints in the west mostly in the 30s, while along and east of the cold front dewpoints are in the upper 60s. Breezy and cooler conditions expected behind the cold front today with highs in the upper 70s west to mid 80s in the James River Valley.
There is a subtle short wave trough that will traverse the state today and surface easterly flow develops and has a weak near surface boundary approaching the Georgia state line. Winds appear to remain around 5 mph and will hold temperatures generally in the lower 70s.
Upper ridging remains in place across the SE US through the period. At the surface, a frontal boundary just to the north of the state will gradually dissipate as high pressure over the eastern US builds south and merges with the weak ridging across the eastern Gulf. This ridging will then remain across the area from the NE keeping a NE flow in place across the area with a weak sea breeze developing each afternoon.
Later today, the weak frontal boundary over the ArkLaMiss will mix out as a mid/upper level high becomes centered over the region. In spite of the increasing anticyclonic and subsident flow, there will be plenty of deep layer moisture (precipitable water > 2 inches) circulating around the high center to support mainly diurnal isolated to scattered shower/thunderstorm activity. Otherwise, the potential for dangerous heat stress levels continues to gain more attention as the low level thermal ridge intensifies and builds over the ArkLaMiss.
The atmosphere should remain dry aloft with more ridging expected.
1153 PM MDT MON AUG 22 2016 AVIATION SECTION UPDATED Deep low pressure system remains nearly stationary over east central Alberta, with the trof axis currently making its way through central MT. The clouds will head eastward with the trof axis overnight, with some clearing to follow, but next push of moisture/clouds from Alberta is already reaching Glacier County and will spread over the Hiline later tonight. Deep upper-level trough will continue to influence western/central MT tonight. Another upper level trof of low pressure will begin to move southward through the region on Tuesday. This will keep temperatures slightly cooler along with introduce a chance for showers/thunderstorms mainly along the Rocky Mountain Front by late afternoon into the evening hours.
302 AM CDT TUE AUG 23 2016 High pressure will move off to the east today, keeping southerly winds over the area. Temps will be a degree or two warmer than yesterday, while overnight lows will be warmer, only falling to around 70. Morning MCS activity will be lifting northeast on Wednesday as the upper trough moves eastward from Illinois.
The focus for these showers will slowly drift south across Idaho and Montana tonight into Wednesday, as a baggy upper level trough of low pressure forms and deepens across the Northern Rockies and Pacific Northwest. Meanwhile, breezy northwest winds this afternoon will transition to easterly by Wednesday afternoon as the trough settles in across the region.
223 AM PDT TUE AUG 23 2016 Weak high pressure off the West Coast will bring slow warming through Wednesday.
142 AM EDT TUE AUG 23 2016 High pressure and a drier airmass will be in place across the region through Tuesday.
Cooler weather is expected today behind the cold front. A low pressure system will drop in from Montana on Wednesday.
With drier air in place expect temperatures to be warmer than the past few days with mid to upper 90s for most of the area. With mid level ridge remaining in place, will expect a very similar day on Wednesday to today.
255 AM MDT TUE AUG 23 2016 Southwest flow is setting up over the northern plains as upper trough pushes into the central states, with low pressure spinning over AB/SK. Strong CAA and pressure rises of 3-5 mb/3hr will accompany the cold front as it crosses the area this morning. Highs today will range from the upper 70s across northeastern WY and the Black Hills to the lower 90s across south central SD. Cold air will continue to push into the area as trough slowly moves across the region. Highs will range from the mid 60s across the northwestern CWA to the lower 80s across south central SD.
122 AM EDT TUE AUG 23 2016 Fair and pleasant weather continues today before turning warmer and more humid through mid week.
The Subtropical Ridge axis builds into Texas bringing a drier and subsident airmass.
/issued 438 AM CDT TUE AUG 23 2016/ A low pressure system is located across southern Saskatchewan this morning with a couple of waves rotating about it. The trough to our west is attempting to establish a closed circulation. The trough axis will remain to our west today leaving us southwesterly flow aloft. Into the evening hours, however, there are some hints that winds will start to back just a little as the trough axis nudges a bit closer.
Synoptic pattern to begin the work week features a weak to moderate strength H5 ridge over the Gulf of Mexico along with a moderate trough noted across the western CONUS. Only a few isolated showers are expected across the eastern coastal plains today with slightly more coverage Wednesday as a slightly stronger mid and upper level impulse rides around the ridge.
High pressure centered over the region this afternoon will shift to the east overnight into Tuesday. However, ridging aloft and the high pressure should continue to exert enough influence that southern IN and central KY will remain dry through Tuesday night. Southerly return flow will set up tomorrow with highs expected to be a few degrees warmer than today. Wednesday morning's lows will also be warmer than tonight in the mid 60s.
309 AM MDT TUE AUG 23 2016 A weak front will push across the CWA this morning but the cooler air will lag behind the front so still on the warm side for today. Should see an increase in mainly high clouds today from the southwest as moisture around an upper low near Las Vegas gets advected northeastward.
The large scale pattern will be anchored by near full latitude ridging over the eastern Pacific, and flatter ridging over the southeastern CONUS. In between, a positively tilted trough will be positioned from Hudson Bay to the northern Rockies. The southern portion of the trough will shift westward late in the period, as the eastern Pacific ridge edges back to the west a bit. It should cross the area tonight, ahead of more substantial trough translating east across southern Canada and the northern CONUS.
519 AM EDT Tue Aug 23 2016 High pressure will provide dry weather through mid week before shower chances return with a late week cold front. High pressure will remain the dominant feature through the period and maintain dry conditions with limited cloud coverage. Ridging will continue to transition over the area through the period with the ridge axis progged to be east of the forecast area by Wednesday afternoon. Overnight lows will be warmer as a result.
226 AM EDT Tue Aug 23 2016 One last cool night before warmer and more humid air moves into the region.
An unseasonably deep upper low was working slowly across southern Canada.
300 AM EDT Tue Aug 23 2016 High pressure will slide east across the region today, then reside along the Mid-Atlantic coast into Wednesday.
641 AM EDT TUE AUG 23 2016 High pressure shifts east today. Increasingly warmer and more humid air as the week progresses. before the next cold front approaches later in the week. ridging at the surface and aloft will continue to dominate through tonight with tranquil weather. So after early morning dense river valley fog under this high pressure. models indicate dry weather with high pressure will still hang on. Warm frontal boundary will move northeast through area Wednesday. with warmer temperatures.
Next cold front approaches by the end of the week. Latest guidance indicates overnight lows could be cooler than forecast. Ridge continues to build in from the west.
Northwest flow aloft will continue through the short term as an upper level low moves east across southern Canada and a large upper level ridge builds off the Pacific NW coast. Moisture in the middle of a broad trough axis extending southwest from the low moving east across Canada will bring a slight chance for showers and thunderstorms to northeast Valley County Wednesday afternoon, but otherwise we will be too dry for precipitation.
A slight warming trend can be expected today and tomorrow as high pressure builds off of the California coast. Conditions cool further late in the week as another upper level trough impacts the West Coast. Temperatures will be slightly warmer as 500 MB heights rise 2 DM due to a building ridge of high pressure. Inland highs will be in the upper 70s to the lower 90s. A few degrees of additional warming can be expected on Wednesday as the ridge builds closer to our region while 850 MB temps see about a 1C increase. An upper level low from the north will advance to our region going into the weekend. This will lead to a deepening of the marine layer plus cooler temperatures.