Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Strong NERLY surface winds across NE OK will gradually spread down into SE OK tonight as high pressure continues to build south over the Plains. /Issued 307 AM CST Wed Feb 1 2017/ A cold front has pushed into northeast OK tonight.
311 PM EST Wed Feb 1 2017 Weak low pressure will move east towards the Bay of Fundy this evening. Weak high pressure builds over the area later tonight.
Present MVFR stratus ceilings at BNA/CSV eventually will be giving way to BKN AC and BKN CI ceilings, as a colder/but drier sfc/low level air mass moves in behind cold frontal passage across our region.
Temperatures ranged from the lower 40s in southeast Iowa, down to the upper 20s along Highway 20 west of the Mississippi River; where temperatures have been falling over the past few hours. Relatively benign conditions will be over the area tonight and Thursday as high pressure builds in over the region from the northwest.
Soundings slightly warmer in western portions of Kit Carson and Cheyenne counties in Colorado, which might see the best potential for freezing precipitation.
148 PM CST Wed Feb 1 2017 This period will be marked by cold Canadian high pressure slowly building overhead, with northwesterly flow at 500mb as a large low spins across Hudson Bay/James Bay. The cold air has successfully taken over the region, with the cold front now shifting over the far southern portions of SD.
Aloft, an upper trough dominated the majority of Canada with the center of the low in the Hudson Bay area and the upper trough extended south into the CONUS. The track of the system places the best chances for snow and accumulating snow potential across our far northern zones (Ord/Greeley areas) where amounts of an inch or two are possible especially given the high liquid to snow ratios with the cold temps in place.
312 PM EST Wed Feb 1 2017 A cold front will move across the forecast area tonight. High pressure will plunge into the Central Plains late Thursday and then will move across the Upper Ohio Valley this weekend.
An elongated high pressure ridge extending from the Wrn Atlc to central Fl will remain in place while slowly weakening.
KMAV, KFWD) do not show a deep cool layer (but do show some cooler air). The main thing which could keep us cooler on Thursday would be the weak winds proximate to the front, which would keep the lower clouds and fog around for more than usual and thus could keep temperatures from rising too high. Also noting that the Canadian model which tends to be the cooler if not coolest of the models is keeping things warmer than GFS/NAM/ECMWF solutions for Thursday night. For now have handled the fog situation with a Special Weather Statement as am uncertain on timing and frontal position issues (especially with the lower confidence in the forecast). Cooler Thursday night behind the boundary and if the forecast pans out fog should not be an issue as cooler and drier air slowly moves in overnight.
The showers should be ending by late morning as upper support wanes and a cold front passes through.
241 PM CST Wed Feb 1 2017 Clouds will increase through the overnight period ahead of a cold front to our northwest. The low level moisture and cloud cover will keep overnight temperatures in the lower 50s across the area except for Northern Oklahoma where temperatures will be in the upper 40s. Light rain will form along and near the low and frontal boundary causing cooler temperatures.
At the surface, a low pressure is currently near Boone, NC with a cold front stretching westward to near Knoxville and further to the west near Memphis. Model soundings only indicate saturation in the lowest 200-250 mb of the atmosphere and expect the precipitation should be light.
305 PM EST Wed Feb 1 2017 High pressure is draped across the Florida Peninsula, maintaining gentle to moderate northeast breezes across the Florida Keys and area coastal waters. Breezes are weaker in the lee of the Peninsula and across the cooler shelf waters bay and gulf side of the island chain.
350 PM EST Wed Feb 1 2017 Bands of snow showers are organizing along and ahead of the cold front as it settles southward through Lower Michigan during mid afternoon. The mid afternoon radar mosaic shows respectable snow showers and band segments within and ahead of the front and along a prefrontal trough combination over Lower Michigan. The front is no doubt getting a boost from Lake Michigan while the prefrontal trough activity is within the relatively unstable theta-e ridge/moisture axis ahead of the cold front. Model soundings within this leading theta-e ridge indicate equilibrium level extending upward to about 750 mb or near 8000 ft as a proxy for convective depth.
Persistent cold air advection tonight and into tomorrow will result in considerably cooler highs on Thursday.
The I-40 cold front will slowly drift southward tonight and Thursday as a strong push is not evident as the trough begins to encounter the ridge of high pressure in the southeast. Slightly cooler in the northern two-thirds of the area on Thursday as clouds and rain remain in the forecast. Again the cold front will slowly work south through the day, and possibly stalling by the afternoon south of the I-20 corridor. A slow moving cold front will drift south across the area tonight and into the day on Thursday. 05 Isolated to scattered rain showers tonight, mainly across the northwest, as a slow moving cold front becomes stationary across the area by Thursday.
We will get a break from the warmth the next couple of days as a cold front drops temperatures back to near normal. Models have come in much colder behind the front so temperatures will be noticeably cooler tomorrow with highs in the 40s north to the 70's along the Rio Grande.
1058 AM CST Wed Feb 1 2017 The cold front will slowly move across the rest of the area this afternoon. Temperatures will be cooler today with highs expected to be in the 50s across much of the area, with some 60s possible along portions of the Red River.
344 PM EST Wed Feb 1 2017 The latest surface map features a quasi-stationary boundary down across the Tennessee Valley, with high pressure aligned from the Continental Divide through the Ohio Valley. Aloft, broad cyclonic flow remains across the northern half of the CONUS, as a Hudson Bay upper level low continues to hold sway. This will likely be the last day of 50 degree readings for a little while, as high pressure will continue to build in from the northwest, with colder air advecting in. Have lows ranging from upper 20s in the north, to the lower 30s in the south; however, could see some valleys decoupling a bit further south as well, and wind up in the 20s once again, similar to last night, if the clearing holds on longer.
/issued 629 AM EST Wed Feb 1 2017/ High pressure in place will provide another dry day with fair conditions across South Florida.
Cold front with light snow has dropped south of Boise this morning but will lift back north this afternoon as the next storm system approaches the coast.
314 PM CST Wed Feb 1 2017 At H5 strong Hudson Bay low has a broad trough over most of the northern CONUS. Over the west weak ridge with high over Vancouver between Hudson Bay trough and closed low off the Pacific Northwest. The main area of forcing is related to weak PV anomalies aloft rotating through the broad trough across the northern portion of the country. Later Thursday however a slightly strong PV anomaly rotates into the main trough aloft and will allow upper level height falls across the High Plains which will turn low level winds to the southeast but remaining upslope. However the flow will become more southwest which will again enhance the isentropic lift as warmer air in the mid levels is transported eastward off the higher terrain.
407 PM EST Wed Feb 1 2017 High pressure will gradually build into the region through the end of the week.
A northerly to northeasterly flow around this high will continue to advect a colder and more seasonable airmass into the area.
Cold front is dropping south across the northern CWA early this morning, with moderate cold air advection behind it and a switch from northwest winds to more northerly winds. Highs today will be much cooler than recent days, with highs in the teens. Lows both tonight and tomorrow night were dropped a few degrees, and tended to lean on the cooler guidance numbers, especially in the James valley.
122 PM EST Wed Feb 1 2017 A cold front crosses later today.
449 PM EST Wed Feb 1 2017 A trough of low pressure will keep snow shower chance in the forecast through part of Thursday.
The general trend has been for areas with MVFR slowly climbing into low VFR early this afternoon so expect a range from 3-4K feet for most sites through the remainder of today ahead of a slow moving cold front advancing into our region by late afternoon into this evening. Dew point temperatures were running cooler than observations so increased them a couple of degrees. This change also helps with the relative humidity which was running cooler than observations.
This afternoon, a weak cold front and mid level impulse are dropping through srn WI and into nrn IL. The only other forecast concern will be with temperature trends following the passage of the weak secondary cold front. As the cooler air filters in overnight, temps should drop to arnd 10-12 F for locations north of the I-88 corridor and 15-18 F for the remainder of the area.
Clearing skies are expected tonight as high pressure builds in from the northwest. Didn't stray too far however, given that winds in the lowest 1 km should stay up enough to keep mixing going in the surface layer. Rising geopotential heights Thursday morning will support surface ridging branching into southern Wisconsin on Thursday.
/Tonight through Thursday/ Surge of colder air has pushed into the state this afternoon behind trof axis. Temperatures will be much cooler overnight as polar airmass oozes into the state with wind chills dropping well below zero across the north.
SHORT TERM (Tonight through Thursday Night): Water-vapor imagery overlain with RAP model analysis shows a weak, dry upper trough moving into southern Coahuila at this time. Models (especially NAM & GFS), as well as WPC, have changed their tune regarding the southward progression of a modest cold front currently analyzed across north-central TX.
Some mid and high level moisture will remain through most of today and with light east winds will be a bit cooler than yesterday. has a broad trough over the eastern half with some ridging along the west coast. Low level cold air advection indicates that Thursday will be a couple degrees cooler than today.
Dry and Cooler. A weak cold front, currently extending along or near our Interstate 20 corridor, will continue to slowly move south tonight. This front will bring winds from the north and cooler air to West Central Texas. Lows tonight will range from around freezing north to around 40 at Junction. Winds from the north tomorrow will continue to bring cooler air into West Central Texas. (Thursday Night through next Wednesday) The cold front will pass through the forecast area Today will be well south of the area by Thursday night.
A massive area of high pressure will dominate Indiana weather into the weekend as it travels from Canada's prairie provinces to the Atlantic.
A weak surface front will push south of Middle Tennessee today, bringing additional cloudiness, cooler temperatures, and a slight chance of rain.
However, late tonight, low clouds and perhaps some patchy BR will develop along and east of a weak back door cold front across eastern NM. Tranquil weather conditions will continue over much of NM through the weekend as dry high pressure shifts south of the area.
Lows tonight will range from the mid 20s across southern Indiana to the low 30s along the TN border. Lows Thursday night will be cooler, mainly in the low to mid 20s.
1120 AM CST Wed Feb 1 2017 Back door cold front poised just to the north of the forecast area at 09z with temperatures falling off into the single digits and teens north of the front. As such, have sided towards cooler guidance values, but did not go as extreme as the ADJMAV guidance.
ridge on Thursday to bring isolated showers to the northern mountains. The ridge to our west will break down late this week and open the door for a more active period.
1237 PM EST Wed Feb 1 2017 VFR conditions currently at the terminals with a cold front slowly sinking southward across the Southern Appalachians.
At the surface, high pressure will build SE and strengthen across the area.
1200 PM CST Wed Feb 1 2017 Dry weather is expected today and tonight as high pressure builds across the region in the wake of a cold front. Early morning water vapor imagery showed a broad upper level trough centered over Hudson Bay.
Did raise wind speeds across western and central ND, as the cold advection behind the secondary cold front was/will create speeds of 15 to 20 mph with gusts to around 25 mph at times. Clear skies and cold advection from an arctic high pressure system was allowing temperatures to drop to near or below zero mainly north and east of the Missouri River. High temperatures will struggle to reach the low teens. The rest of the week looks dry with an upper level ridge moving in. We will transition to a more active pattern this weekend as the ridge breaks down and westerly flow kicks in. Scattered flurries may accompany the low cigs at KISN-KDIK tonight.
High pressure across the Florida Peninsula will gradually weaken and shift east of the state overnight. Overnight lows should be a little warmer, generally in the upper 40s to lower 50s.
The mean upper trough over eastern North America will be reinforced later this week and bring a return of below normal temperatures for a change. Snow accums through evening will range from nothing across the Lower Susq Valley, to a coating to 1/2 inch near the I-99/RT 220 corridor (from KAOO to KUNV and KIPT), with 1-2 inches likely across the NRN and WRN mountains (locally 3-4 in the most favored upslope area/ridge tops west of Rt 219 in the Laurels, and within quasi-stationary east/west snow squall bands). Highs will range from the lower 30s north to the mid-upper 40s southeast.
Cold front moving through NW/N-Central TX is expected to arrive into the Hill Country during the evening and possibly reach the Balcones Escarpment/I-35 Corridor communities by around midnight.
On the surface, a high pressure center south of Bermuda ridges westward over the central part of Florida. The ridging shifts slightly northward on Thursday, which will cause a shift in the winds to the northeast. With continued high pressure, we will see sunny skies and warm temperatures once again on Thursday afternoon. The Florida peninsula will remain on the southern periphery of the main U/L flow through the period with broad weak U/L troughing predominately over the region.
154 PM CST Wed Feb 1 2017 Early afternoon surface observations indicate a cold front has progressed through most of the area and is now positioned across southeast Oklahoma into north Texas. Northeast winds of 15 to 20 mph have been observed across central and northern Oklahoma in the wake of the front, as well as much cooler temperatures than we have seen in previous days. Short term model guidance shifts this low east and indicates weak moist easterly flow north of this low across southeast portions of the area later tonight.
Overnight lows generally mild, ranging from the lower to mid 50s on average. Daytime highs to remain some 10 to 15 degrees above seasonal normals, lifting up into the lower to mid 70s.
Moist upslope flow developing on the west side of this Ridge axis combined with some increasing moisture and isotropic left across Eastern Colorado and Western Kansas will not only result in increasing clouds but areas of freezing fog and possibly some light freezing drizzle towards daybreak. Given the expected cloud cover overnight will favor temperatures slightly warmer than the latest guidance.
329 PM CST Wed Feb 1 2017 Satellite imagery this afternoon shows a locally flat pattern prevailing across the Plains as a large trough dominates areas from Canada south into the mid-section of the United States; leaving our section of the Nation under the influence of a west-northwest flow.
Rain and breezy conditions will develop across the area today as a strong low pressure system pushes into the Great Lakes. A brief break will occur tonight before another frontal zone moves into the region and stalls to our south before moving back north later in the week as a warm front.
Given that available moisture will be contained to the lowest portions of the atmosphere, it'll likely be in the form of drizzle. As for temps, they'll likely remain above freezing during the overnight hours (although it'll be rather close to the freezing mark along the IA border) so freezing drizzle chances should be negligible. As the low progresses northeastward tomorrow, precip chances will go with it, leaving the area dry late tomorrow through early Wednesday.
/issued 800 PM EST Mon Jan 9 2017/ The moderating trend is underway as high pressure has moved across the Mid-Atlantic states and now out into the western Atlantic Ocean shifting the low level flow to a northeast to east direction.
Hopefully the warm front will go through soon. a second system replaces outgoing trough w/ high pressure pushing south from the northern Rockies/Plains. Thinning cloud cover for a brief period tonight will allow temps to drop back from current levels into the lower to mid 30s. The general agreement is that southwesterly flow develops aloft at the end of the work week as an upper trough develops over the west coast.
/Issued 533 PM CST Mon Jan 9 2017/ Southwest winds around 15 knots this evening will pick up and turn to the west behind a cold front around Midnight. A weak cold front will push through the area this evening. Winds will shift south to southwest on Wednesday and that will bring temperatures back up into the low 70s again.
Still, there may be some portions of the CWA that sees a mix or even a brief period of freezing rain though this is a low probability outcome. High pressure pushing in from the north and the accompanying cold air will help squeeze out this moisture from the atmosphere, resulting in some light snow and freezing drizzle when it's not fully saturated.
/issued 936 PM CST Mon Jan 9 2017/ Pressure gradient over the Mid-South will tighten up overnight as a strong low pressure system tracks into the Upper Midwest. With the strong southerly winds expected overnight, temperatures are at the lowest they will be. It will be warmer though. A weak broad ridge will shift out of the Midsouth tonight. Southerly flow will strengthen ahead of a continental cold front approaching from the West. The cold front is expected to stall to our North across South Missouri. Zonal flow tomorrow and Wednesday will be parallel to the cold front.
Temperatures at 2 am were in the mid 50s at most locations with dew points from the mid 40s north to the lower 50s. The cold front with this system is not likely to get much further south than a St.
Forecast soundings suggest that the predominant precipitation type will be freezing rain north of I-80, possibly mixing with sleet and light snow before ending by mid to late morning on Tuesday.
Otherwise, the axis of rather strong high pressure will remain north of the region and provide an easterly wind flow. Highs will be close to normal, around 70 degrees, while lows tonight will raise back a little above normal in the lower-mid 50s, except upper 50s right along the coast south of Cape Canaveral. A subtle coastal trough may enhance surface convergence mid week with a broad frontal zone nudging into Northern counties late in the weekend. Little change in Max temps warming from the Lower 70s to around 80 by late week. Inverted trough along the coast was slackening the pressure gradient except for the southern waters. The trough will wash out during daytime heating and with rather strong high pressure continuing to the north, east flow will then encompass all of the waters.
855 PM PST Mon Jan 9 2017 Areas of fog tonight may be dense in spots, then partly to mostly cloudy on Tuesday and a bit cooler.
1038 PM MST Mon Jan 9 2017 20z surface analysis had low over northeast WY with strong arctic boundary into south central MT and warm front into south central SD. Upper level flow remains cyclonic over the Northern Plains mid week as persistent upper low remains over central Canada.
High pressure will continue to move off to the east while a low pressure system strengthens and moves from the plains to the Great Lakes.
Dry conditions will persist across our area during the morning and afternoon hours as an upper level ridge moves into our area and high pressure remains dominant at the surface.
Wind perhaps will be the most significant element, as breezy conditions will prevail as the Keys remain along the southern flank of a sprawling continental polar anticyclone.
Dew points will quickly climb out of the 20s and reach into the 40s, near 50, by 00z ahead of a weak cold front. Cold front will just glance the northwest portion of the CWA.
The precipitation type is not clear cut as mixing with fropa may cause a rise in temperatures above freezing and precipitation may fall as rain. If temperatures remain below freezing and freezing rain develops, light ice accumulations and slick outdoor surfaces are possible. Upper level zonal flow eventually turns more southwest toward late workweek as a synoptic trough develops.
/Issued 218 PM EST Mon Jan 9 2017/ Evidence of some weak mid level ridging building into the SE this afternoon after analyzing latest water vapor loop. Ridge is rather dirty. with a good amount of mid and high level cloud cover spilling overtop ridge axis and down toward the CWA. Meanwhile sfc analysis revealed a continued wedge down the Appalachians as 1040mb high pressure remains centered across NC/VA. keeping us entrenched in a cooler airmass. All of us should finally see highs above freezing with 40s expected across mountainous terrain and lower 60s expected central Ga.
1242 AM EST Tue Jan 10 2017 High pressure will shift offshore of the Outer Banks tonight, but will continue to extend across the region through the weekend. Late evening surface analysis showed a pronounced coastal trough offshore with inland high pressure holding firm. Satellite shows the leading edge of thicker low/mid-level clouds offshore of the lower South Carolina in association with a push of isentropic lift atop the offshore coastal trough. These clouds will gradually move onshore early Tuesday morning and affect most of the lower South Carolina and upper Georgia coasts.
Tonight, A weak upper level trough will move across the central plains. The upper trough will move east into the MS river valley by late afternoon. Highs will reach the lower to mid 50s south of I-70, with mid 40s along the NE border. Main concern remains evolution of the upper trough that will bring the potential for significant and potentially damaging ice accumulations to the area this weekend. To set the stage the first of 2 cold fronts will sweep through the area Weds passing through mainly dry with shallow lift/meager moisture so will keep conds dry Weds/Thurs.
One area of heavier precip (mix of freezing rain and snow) Watertown SD area and model data and looking at mid level frontogensis and upward vertical motion would suggest the activity in ne SD will intensity and also looking at the same for se ND. Winds increase behind this system as the low develops more into western Wisconsin.
00 UTC surface analysis shows a 1041 mb high centered just east of Cape Henlopen, DE with ridging extending down the east coast of the US. As a result, a small pocket of near freezing temperatures is expected across portions of Southern Alabama into Southern Georgia. In the upper levels a ridge will be over the Southeast. A trough will quickly move through The Ohio River Valley but will remain to the north. The associated cold front will stay north of the region.