Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
254 AM CST SUN DEC 6 2015 A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM KINL TO KSPS WITH A NARROW BAND OF SPRINKLES ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT. ACCOMPANIED BY A COLD FRONT. THERE IS FORCING DUE TO THE SHORT WAVE BUT THE LOW LEVELS ARE QUITE DRY. WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND THE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. HIGHS SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S. OPERATIONAL MODELS INTENSIFY THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH INTO A CLOSED LOW AS IT TRACKS INTO OH BY 12Z MON. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAINLY IN THE LOWER 30S.
EARLY MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD A 1037MB HIGH CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC SEABOARD THAT WAS NOTED RIDGING BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST ACROSS OUR CWA. SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED. SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT.
JHM A weather system is off the coast and the cold front will move inland late tonight and Sunday morning. The higher totals are expected from around Plumas County northward. Several inches of snow are likely below pass levels and over some of the higher mountain highway roadways.
THE DRIER AIR INTRUSION IS WELL BEHIND THE TROUGH AND PRIMARILY ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN MUCH TOO MOIST IN THE LOWER LEVELS WITH THIS SYSTEM FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS AND THAT TRENDS SEEMS TO BE CONTINUING. HIGH PRESSURE AND WEAK RIDGE BUILD IN TONIGHT FOR EARLY IN THE WEEK.
With a mid-upper level low situated well to the north (over the Great Lakes) today, and low-level ridging in the Southeast, the quiescent conditions of the past couple days should continue. After a cool start, high temperatures should reach just above normal from the upper 60s north, to the low- mid 70s in the Florida Big Bend.
WITH MODELS CONTINUING TO SHOW A COMBINATION OF RIDGING/ZONAL FLOW AT H5/H7. WITH THE DOWNSLOPE FLOW/RIDGING AT H5/H7.
BUT A FEW SPRINKLES MAY REACH OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES BY EVENING AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CROSS THE AREA WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS. ANOTHER FAST MOVING UPPER LOW COULD BRING A FEW SHOWERS MIDWEEK. TROUGH WILL SWING EAST ON SUNDAY INCREASING CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA BY AFTERNOON.
EROSION OF THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. THE MILD AIRMASS THAT WILL OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE CONUS WILL STILL YIELD WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY WINTER WITH HIGHS APPROACHING 50 AND LOWS HOLD AT OR ABOVE FREEZING. THIS WILL MEAN AN EXPANSION OF THE EASTERN CONUS UPPER RIDGE THROUGH THE AREA. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL SLOWLY VEER TOWARD THE WEST LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. THE PASSAGE OF A TROUGH AXIS ACROSS LAKE HURON EARLY MONDAY WILL LEAD TO ADDITIONAL VEERING TO THE NORTHWEST.
AN UPR RIDGE WL BE CENTERED OVR THE WY AND CO BORDER TONIGHT. TONIGHT A SFC LEE TROF DEVELOPS ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS OVR THE FAR SOUTHEAST PLAINS KEEPING TEMPS WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT. TEMPS ON SUN SHOULD GENERALLY BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN TODAY.
314 PM MST SAT NOV 7 2015 Weak high pressure passing today has allowed for a mostly sunny day around the region. The trough that will take the place of the current ridge is already bringing rain to the west coast. Southwesterly flow ahead of the trough will begin to produce precipitation in western Idaho and northwest Montana beginning tonight.
At the same time, another area of convection initiated along a cold front across parts of south Georgia. Yes, you read that right, a summertime seabreeze front and a fall cold front all on the same day within 50 miles of each other. Expect low 60s across southeast Alabama (and rainy), up to the low 70s across the southeast Big Bend.
920 PM EST SAT NOV 7 2015 DRY AND COOL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE TRAVELS EAST ACROSS THE AREA.
WV Imagery indicates a weak upper level ridge of high pressure transitioning eastward across the Northern and Western High Plains. Near the surface, an area of high pressure is moving east across eastern Kansas into Missouri while a lee side trough of low pressure is developing across extreme eastern Colorado. Lows will be in the lower to mid 30s. Slightly warmer temperatures can be expected on Sunday as south winds increase. Despite the passage of an upper level trough, little or no cloud cover is expected, partly due to a lack of low to mid level baroclinicity.
612 PM CST SAT NOV 7 2015 GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED TONIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH SURFACE RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE AREA. IT MAY ALSO THIN AS IT MOVES EAST AS THE UPPER LEVEL RH PROGS ARE KIND OF WEAK AND THE HIGHER VALUES REMAIN MAINLY IN CANADA. A GOOD 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY. THE PRIMARY CONCERN DURING THE EXTENDED PERIODS IS THE LARGE AND RATHER INTENSE UPPER TROF THAT IS FORECASTED TO EJECT FROM NEBRASKA TO LAKE SUPERIOR DURING THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK.
405 PM CST SAT NOV 7 2015 INDICATIVE OF THE LOW LEVEL DRY AIR THAT IS DEEPENING IN WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT WHICH HAS ALREADY INTO THE WRN GULF AND SRN LA COAST. AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION SW INTO THE OK/TX PANHANDLES AND CNTRL NM.
THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ARE FORECASTING DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
THIS WILL BE THE BEGINNING OF A QUIET WEATHER PERIOD THAT WILL FEATURE HIGH PRESSURE.
709 PM EST SAT NOV 7 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE STATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.
508 PM CST SAT NOV 7 2015 QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES IN THE SHORT TERM AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY.
UPPER RIDGE OVER COLORADO THROUGH SUNDAY WITH DRY AIR ALOFT. THERE SHOULD BE WARMER TEMPERATURES AND LESS FOG TONIGHT. BUT THE LOWER PLATTE VALLEY COULD STILL RADIATE ENOUGH. AND THE AREA EAST OF LIMON AND STERLING COULD HAVE A BIT MORE MOISTURE LEFT AND GENTLE UPSLOPE ON THE RIDGE THERE. TEMPERATURES ABOUT 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT EXCEPT IN THE VALLEYS OF GRAND COUNTY WHERE SKIES DID NOT CLEAR AS WELL THIS MORNING.
CEILINGS WILL BE THE HIGHEST OVER NORTHERN AR. WHILE THE LOWEST IN SOUTHERN AR.
WITH THE LOWER LEVEL DYNAMICS SOUTH OF THE AREA. THE MAIN WX FEATURE AFFECTING MID TN THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DRY HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MID MS VALLEY. THE HIGH CENTER WILL MOVE ALONG THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT AND EXTEND DOWN INTO TN WITH DRIER AND COOLER AIR. BUT A GOOD DEAL OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL PERSIST INTO THE EVENING AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT LATE IN THE NIGHT FROM NW TO SE AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE AREA AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVES CLOSER. SUNDAY WILL BRING A SUNNY AND COOL MORNING WITH TEMPS RISING THROUGH THE 40S AND INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S BY NOON.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH IN BEHIND THE FRONT.
558 PM EST SAT NOV 7 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN LAKE ERIE TONIGHT.
617 PM EST SAT NOV 7 2015 CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
853 PM CST SAT NOV 7 2015 High pressure will drift directly over Illinois tonight. Lowered the lows in that area to include upper 20s, otherwise the forecast appears on track. The pesky cirrus that has been periodically affecting areas south of I-70 the last day or so should get shunted southward with time, as the upper trough currently overhead shifts east and spreads drier air into the area. Overnight, skies will be mainly clear as high pressure drifts eastward through the area.
BREEZY/WINDY AND MUCH COOLER ON SUNDAY WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND. SURFACE ANALYSIS WAS SHOWING A COLD FRONT WAS ENTERING SE GA. WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA TONIGHT AS THE THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT BRINGING A STRONG SURGE OF NE WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS ON SUNDAY AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTH.
506 PM EST SAT NOV 7 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT.
/ISSUED 405 PM CST SAT NOV 7 2015/ INDICATIVE OF THE LOW LEVEL DRY AIR THAT IS DEEPENING IN WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT WHICH HAS ALREADY INTO THE WRN GULF AND SRN LA COAST. AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION SW INTO THE OK/TX PANHANDLES AND CNTRL NM.
640 PM CST SAT NOV 7 2015 NE WINDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS CAA CONINUES ACROSS THE REGION AND THE LOW IN THE GULF STRENGTHENS MORE. DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER TO RULE CLOSING OUT THE WEEKEND AND STARTING THE NEW WORK WEEK. WITH HIGHS TOMORROW TOPPING OUT IN THE MID/UPPER 60S AND LOWS TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT IN THE LOWER/MID 50S. 13 A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE WEST CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. COMBINED WITH A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDING SOUTH FROM THE PLAINS STATES.
COLD FRONT PULLING AWAY FROM THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AS DRIER AND COOLER AIR DROPS INTO THE AREA. CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 46 61 47 57 / 20 10 20 50 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 44 61 42 58 / 10 10 20 40 OAK RIDGE, TN 42 61 43 57 / 10 10 20 40 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 40 59 37 59 / 10 10 20 40.
225 PM PST SAT NOV 7 2015 A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE A CONTINUATION OF DRY WEATHER TO THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR THROUGH MIDDAY SUNDAY.
803 PM EST SAT NOV 7 2015 CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
740 PM EST SAT NOV 7 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE STATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.
AFTER A WARMER PERIOD FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. A RETURN OF COLDER CONDITIONS HAS FILTERED INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT PASSAGE LAST NIGHT. WITH DRY AIR FILTERING IN BEHIND A COLD FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION. 73 /ISSUED 252 PM CST SAT NOV 7 2015/ THE 20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED THAT THE COLD FRONT WAS NOW WELL SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH CONTINUED OVER-RUNNING LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN ACROSS THE REGION.
740 PM EST SAT NOV 7 2015 HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE NW. A WEAK UPPER LOW CURRENTLY DEVELOPING OVER OK AND NORTH TX WILL MOVE ENE LATE IN THE WEEKEND.
523 PM CST SAT NOV 7 2015 FOR 00Z TAFS /ISSUED 252 PM CST SAT NOV 7 2015/ THE 20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED THAT THE COLD FRONT WAS NOW WELL SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH CONTINUED OVER-RUNNING LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN ACROSS THE REGION.
DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER TO RULE CLOSING OUT THE WEEKEND AND STARTING THE NEW WORK WEEK. WITH HIGHS TOMORROW TOPPING OUT IN THE MID/UPPER 60S AND LOWS TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT IN THE LOWER/MID 50S. 13 A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE WEST CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. COMBINED WITH A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDING SOUTH FROM THE PLAINS STATES.
737 PM EST SAT NOV 7 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT.
942 PM EST SAT NOV 7 2015 CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
/ISSUED 304 PM CST SAT NOV 7 2015/ A COLD NIGHT IS ON TAP FOR EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS AS TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 40 ACROSS THE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE REGION. BENIGN WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED UNTIL MID-WEEK WHEN THE THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP THROUGH THE PLAINS.
649 PM EST SAT NOV 7 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT.
COOL TONIGHT WITH FREEZING FOG POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NEVADA.
SO THE LOW CIGS COULD POSSIBLY DROP BELOW 1500 FT OVERNIGHT BEFORE THE DRYING LAYER DEEPENS AND LIFTS OR REMOVES THE LOWER CIGS TOWARD DAYBREAK.
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE A CONTINUATION OF DRY WEATHER TO THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR THROUGH MIDDAY SUNDAY.
1034 PM EST SAT NOV 7 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT.
920 PM EST SAT NOV 7 2015 CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
606 PM EST SAT NOV 7 2015 DRY AND COOL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE TRAVELS EAST ACROSS THE AREA.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDED FROM THE WESTERN DAKOTAS INTO CO. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA SUN MORNING. EVEN WARMER AT 850 MB AND TEMPS IN THIS AIRMASS IN MONTANA IN THE LOW 60S AND CONSIDERING WARMTH TODAY THINK THE IDEA OF GOING A BIT HIGHER THAN MOST TEMP GUIDANCE IS REASONABLE.
/ISSUED 304 PM CST SAT NOV 7 2015/ A cold night is on tap for eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas as temperatures are expected to drop into the upper 20s to around 40 across the area as high pressure at the surface continues to build into the region. Benign weather is anticipated until mid-week when the the next cold front is expected to sweep through the plains.
TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE MID 50S IN THE NORTHWEST TO LOWER 70S SOUTHEAST AS SOME COOLER AND DRIER AIR SLOWLY FILTERS IN BEHIND THE FRONT. BUT BY 12 TO 15Z THE LOW STRATUS DECK MVFR/IFR SHOULD RETURN FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. THERE MAY BE SOME LIFTING TOWARD SUNSET ON SUNDAY BUT FOR THE MOST PART STRONG 7 TO 12KT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL HELP KEEP THE LOW CLOUDS IN PLACE.
311 AM CST THU NOV 5 2015 A band of scattered showers across central KS into western IA early this morning is being fed by a stream of moisture and a band of warm air advection ahead of a deep upper trough over the Rockies. A cold front will track into the area later today, reaching the northwest tip of MO around 6 PM, the I-35 corridor around 9 PM and then accelerating east of the forecast area into eastern MO after midnight. The higher end of this range may be particularly attainable if precipitation avoids these areas through the afternoon. This low CAPE/very high shear environment could support a thin line of storms along the front, a few of which could be strong given the extreme wind shear.
AS FOR SNOW ECMWF STILL THE COLDEST HOWEVER ALL MODELS A BIT WARMER THROUGH THE COLUMN TODAY. WILL NEED TO MONITOR TIMING FOR SNOW AMOUNTS OVER NW MN AS COOLER AIR SHIFTS EAST.
/issued 143 PM CST WED NOV 4 2015/ Upper trough over AZ making its way closer to the area as it begins to shift into the Plains later tonight. Increasing lift along with an advancing Pacific cold front/dryline will bring parts of the region a chance of thunderstorms late this evening and overnight.
HAVE BACKED OFF A BIT ON THE IFR COVERAGE AS THE STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW KEEPS THE LOW-LEVELS PRETTY WELL MIXED. WILL MAINTAIN THE CHC POPS ACROSS THE W CWA DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER LOW AND UPPER DYNAMICS.
AS WE EXPECT THEM TO PICK UP FROM THE WEST AT 20-25MPH AND GUST TO 30-35 IN RESPONSE TO THE PASSING UPPER TROUGH.
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND.
This activity will be primarily related to warm air and moisture advection in the warm sector ahead of the cold front with the best chances for thunderstorms being across south central Missouri. Through mid day into early evening Thursday a cold front will push east towards the region with a line of thunderstorms expected to develop along the front in the best area of frontal forcing.
AS THE NEXT SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO WORK EAST ACROSS THE PANHANDLE OF WESTERN NEBRASKA THIS EVENING AND THURSDAY. A STRONG JET STREAK WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND ADVANCE TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. AT THE SAME TIME A COLD FRONT WILL RELUCTANTLY DRIFT SOUTH WITH A STRONG AREA OF MID- LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS DEVELOPING IN IT/S WAKE /ACROSS NORTHWEST NEBRASKA/. AND THUS WILL MAINTAIN THE HIGHEST POPS IN THIS REGION. THE LATEST GUIDANCE MARGINALLY SUPPORTS SNOW FOR THE PINE RIDGE REGION OF NEBRASKA EAST INTO WESTERN CHERRY COUNTY AND SOUTH INTO NORTHERN GARDEN COUNTY. WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S ACROSS NW NEBRASKA. BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL MAKE CONDITIONS FEEL COOLER.
WATER VAPOR REVEALING A DEEP TROUGH CROSSING THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WHILE A MAJOR UPSTREAM RIDGE WAS DOMINATING THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGION/EASTERN CONUS. AS THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. GENERAL ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH/LOW WILL AID IN MORE STRATUS DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. PLAN ON LOWS TONIGHT IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S. AREAS OF DRIZZLE TRANSITION TO SCATTERED SHOWER/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO AND ACROSS THE REGION.
A COLD FRONT HAS STALLED OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. THE OTHER CONCERN WOULD BE THE POTENTIAL FOR A LINEAR LINE OF CONVECTION TO FORM ALONG AND EAST OF THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT EARLY/MID AFTERNOON THURSDAY ACROSS OUR EASTERN COUNTIES.
307 AM EST THU NOV 5 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC WILL SLOWLY ERODE.
SURFACE COLD FRONT REMAINS POISED JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE AREA AT 19Z. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO STAY NEARLY STATIONARY TONIGHT THEN PUSH ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA INTO SOUTHWEST IOWA DURING THE DAY THURSDAY WITH LAGGING UPPER TROUGH MOVING EAST OF THE AREA THURSDAY EVENING. AS THIS INITIAL SYSTEM MOVES RAPIDLY EAST OF THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT A SECOND UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.
Though models suggest most of the mid level energy will be shunted off to the north of the region, MU CAPES up to around 500J/kg continue to be generated at times by the 00Z NAM and GFS during the overnight hours tonight along and ahead of an advancing cold front. A local study indicates that this would be sufficient to support an isolated tornado or two given the high shear environment (0-6 KM shear 50+ kts) to go along with some pockets of damaging winds.
Upper ridging was building southeast into the Great Basin as the trough makes eastward movement. Southwest flow aloft will continue to bring an overall drier atmosphere ahead of it with time, with Pacific cold frontal passage likely in the afternoon and early evening in central and eastern Kansas. Will keep some small precip chances in mainly eastern areas this morning as the deeper moisture exits, but main concern remains to be in the late afternoon and early evening when slightly cooler mid-level air brings instability up.
THERE IS A LARGE TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES. CAPE INCREASES AND BECOMES SURFACE BASED TO NEAR 350 JOULES/KG JUST AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT.
246 AM EST THU NOV 5 2015 A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE REGION TODAY.
1249 AM EST THU NOV 5 2015 A WARM FRONT MOVES TO THE NORTH THIS MORNING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OTHERWISE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
CURRENT SITUATION HAS STRONG 130 PLUS KT JET FROM NM INTO MN AHEAD OF WRN CONUS TROUGH. ATTENTION WILL THEN TURN TO POTENTIAL FOR RE-DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. HOWEVER CURRENT AZ SHORT WAVE IN THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL EVENTUALLY EXPAND KINEMATIC FORCING THROUGH THE PLAINS AND INTO CENTRAL AND SE IA BY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BE AIDED BY A COLD FRONT ALOFT HELPING PRECIP EXPAND OVER THE SE HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA 21Z AND AFTER. THIS MAKES SOME SENSE WITH 09Z OBS ALREADY IN THE LOWER 60S IN SERN QUARTER OF NE. LITTLE CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST WITH COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM STILL EXPECTED TO BE STRETCHING ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA BY EARLY EVENING.
Some of the more interesting aspects of the next couple of days will be convective chances tonight, and how expansive freezing temperatures may be on Thursday night. This will help drag a pre frontal trough in advance of a pacific Cold front across western Kansas through the overnight hours. The Pacific front morning in with expanding high pressure during the day Thursday should lend to more fall like highs for Thursday afternoon as well as a chance for freezing temperatures in the far west and frost elsewhere.
HIGH LEVELS OF HUMIDITY IN THE LOWEST 5KT. /ISSUED 323 PM CST WED NOV 4 2015/ AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS CENTERED ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST EXTENDS NORTH ACROSS THE MID SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL HELP TO KEEP DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD ADVANCE A COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST INTO THE MID SOUTH BY THURSDAY NIGHT AS WELL.
107 AM EST THU NOV 5 2015 DRY AND UNSEASONABLY MILD WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PUSH EAST.
341 AM CST THU NOV 5 2015 LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES THIS MORNING WITH A LEAD SHORT WAVE OVER THE PLAINS AND A SECOND SHORT WAVE DROPPING INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. SHORT RANGE MODELS DEPICT THE SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH TO PHASE WITH THE SHORT WAVE OVER THE ROCKIES THIS AFTERNOON.
Today we will see breezy southwest winds once again, but cool air advection in the 850-700mb layer will result in temperatures 8 to 15 degrees cooler across far southwest and west central KS. The surface cold front will be pushing through late in the afternoon, which is when the more abrupt temperature chance will occur.
307 AM CST THU NOV 5 2015 UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS GULF COAST STATES WILL BRING ANOTHER DAY WITH A TOUCH OF LATE SUMMER TO CENTRAL ALABAMA TODAY. THE BIG FEATURE OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD IS STILL THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE AND SUBSEQUENT COOL DOWN OVER THE WEEKEND.
1242 AM EST THU NOV 5 2015 WEDGE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA WILL BREAK THURSDAY AS THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND.
LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 20S IN OUR WEST TO AROUND 30 IN OUR EAST. DIVERGENCE AND WEAK VORTICITY ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER TROF WAS PRODUCING MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THE TROF AXIS IS CURRENTLY JUST TO OUR WEST AND WILL SLIDE EAST OVER OUR REGION THIS EVENING WHICH WILL BRING AN END TO OUR PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT.
340 AM EST THU NOV 5 2015 CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FEATURE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE EAST ALONG THE NC AND VA COAST. WARMER TEMPS ADVECTING INTO THE AREA TODAY AND STILL UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF EXITING HIGH PRESSURE WILL STILL LEAVE QUITE A STOUT CAP IN PLACE ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY.
300 AM EST THU NOV 5 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TODAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE REGION LATER TONIGHT.
ALL ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH TODAY.
THE COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL MN BY 16Z. WITH WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES PREVAILING INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
THE COLD PACIFIC TROUGH OVER UTAH WILL EXIT THE STATE LATE TONIGHT.
354 AM CST THU NOV 5 2015 EARLY THIS MORNING A DEEP AMPLIFIED TROUGH WAS PROGRESSING THROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND ROCKY MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD BE AROUND 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. MID-LEVEL COOLING BENEATH THE UPPER TROUGH AS IT MOVES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON IN COMBINATION WITH DIURNAL HEATING MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A SHALLOW LAYER OF INSTABILITY AND A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA. INCREASINGLY DEEP MIXING DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO FAST MEAN FLOW AT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH SHOULD SUPPORT 20 TO 30 MPH WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WITH GUSTS POSSIBLY AROUND 40. FREEZING TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE FAR WESTERN COLUMN OF COUNTIES.
A HUGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS ALIGNED FROM THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN. DUE TO TYPICAL LOWER PRESSURE IN THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE FORMIDABLE RIDGE TO THE NORTH.
947 PM PST WED NOV 4 2015 A weak upper level disturbance will move across the area Thursday resulting in the possibility of light snow accumulations mainly over the higher terrain of the Panhandle.
MAIN CONCERNS WILL BE WITH LARGE WESTERN TROF AS IT LIFTS AND PASSES THROUGH THE REGION OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. ESPECIALLY IF CONVECTION CAN FIRE ON TROF/MOISTURE AXIS AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
Exact degree of mixing that took place during the day remains in question: however, NAM/RAP forecast soundings are not nearly as moist in the lowest-levels as they have been in previous nights. Morning upper air shows deep trof in the western rockies with upper ridge over MS valley.
223 AM MST THU NOV 5 2015 UPPER TROUGH/SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA TODAY BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY TO THE WESTERN HALF. CLOUDS WILL THIN OUT IN THE LATE AFTERNOON WITH A SMALL WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR WARMING BUT DO NOT THINK IT WILL BE ENOUGH TIME TO SIGNIFICANTLY AFFECT HIGHS AND WILL FOLLOW COOLER GUIDANCE.