Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Ridging of high pressure aloft extends from the Caribbean over the Eastern Gulf states and will continue to suppress convection across our area today and tonight. /NF/ Tuesday night through the weekend: Overall, the weather continues to look dry and warm through the work week over the ArkLaMiss region, but strong westerlies to the north are expected to infringe upon and weaken the ridge that has persisted for so long now, and this will result in greater convective rainfall chances by end of the week/weekend over mainly northern portions of the forecast area.
Scattered high clouds prevail this morning atop developing fair wx cu, all amidst the deep ridge overhead. High pressure will dominate with high clouds atop low cu at all sites this afternoon and again on Tuesday. CDG Chattanooga Airport, TN 67 93 68 93 67 / 0 20 10 10 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 66 91 68 90 66 / 0 10 10 10 20 Oak Ridge, TN 65 91 66 90 65 / 0 10 10 10 20 Tri Cities Airport, TN 63 89 65 88 64 / 10 20 10 20 20.
Overnight lows tonight, though still running below normal, will be slightly warmer with only a few pockets of subfreezing temperatures in some valleys.
Ridging will continue over the Southeast United States with synoptic scale high pressure over the Gulf supporting moderate southeast breezes.
Rainshowers will limit temps over the NW zones to the upper 50s, while sunshine will allow temps to reach the low 70s over the SE zones. A stacked surface and upper low over Montana early this morning will lift north into southern Alberta and Saskatchewan today. The low will drift east towards Manitoba tonight. The forecast area will see gusty west to SW today being in a tight surface gradient on the south side of this low. Also, areas north of the Missouri River will be close enough to the low to see rain from wrap around moisture at times today and tonight.
The lower atmosphere remains primed for convection with above normal moisture levels and little inhibition, and indeed scattered showers and a few thunderstorms dot the radar this afternoon. Rain chances return on Tuesday as the last in a series of upper disturbances moves across the region while the parent upper low lifts away from the Coastal Bend.
Expect rising heights aloft to continue to allow temperatures to warm into the low to mid 90s across the forecast area. Skies will be mostly clear overnight with lows in the low to mid 60s across the area.
Upper level ridging will begin to weaken and shift eastward this afternoon as a 500mb trough approaches the West Coast. Drier conditions are expected to return on Tuesday as the upper low pushes eastward and a ridge builds offshore.
These showers are associated with an incoming upper level trough that continues to approach the WA coast from the northwest. 45" for the Blues and Wallowas with the higher amounts at higher elevations and more east.
The upper level low that brought cooler air into the region over the weekend continues to exit to the northeast and is now in southern Canada, with any lingering cool air rapidly moderating. ACARS soundings show about a 2-4 C warming throughout the lower atmosphere compared to yesterday at this same time.
Although the main low pressure system has exited the region, upslope flow continues to produce steady light to moderate precipitation across northwest Montana. Precipitation will generally decrease through this evening and tonight, but will be shortlived as the next low pressure system arrives beginning tomorrow morning in central Idaho. The next closed low pressure system continues to trend wetter with each model run.
629 PM EDT Mon May 24 2021 A backdoor cold front will stall to the south tonight.
The deep layer high pressure area over the southeast U.
954 PM EDT Mon May 24 2021 High pressure over central Indiana will keep the weather dry tonight, with partly cloudy skies from mid and high cloud streaming into the state as shown on IR satellite loop at 930 pm. High pressure and upper ridging were keeping the area dry. Dry conditions will continue tonight with the high and and upper ridge still in control. On Tuesday, the ridge breaks down with an upper trough approaching from the west. Better instability builds across the area on Tuesday, and without the ridge over the area, cannot rule out an isolated shower or thunderstorm during the afternoon hours. The upper trough along with a surface front will get near the forecast area by later Tuesday night. 850mb winds increase to 30-40kt, and the upper trough will bring some support.
741 PM EDT Mon May 24 2021 Latest surface analysis showed a slow moving warm front from southern Lake Michigan to west central Ohio to southwest Pennsylvania and a broad 1022mb high over Tennessee/Ohio Valleys. Upper air analysis showed a ridge axis from northeast Gulf of Mexico to the Great Lakes region. Upper level low over Montana is expected to slowly push east through Tuesday. This feature will slowly displace ridge axis to the east coast Tuesday night. Upper level ridge axis is expected to move west to east across the forecast Tuesday and Tuesday night.
With increased cloud cover and scattered showers/storms, highs on Tuesday will be slightly cooler across this area, but still unseasonably warm across east central and southeast MO and southwest IL.
957 PM EDT Mon May 24 2021 On track for another mild night, and actually starting to feel a bit muggy with low-level southerly flow under the strong ridge of high pressure. During the overnight hours and into tomorrow, we'll see a slight decrease in mid-level geopotential heights over our region as our stubborn ridge of high pressure begins to slowly break down and shift eastward. The upper level ridge axis that has been providing the dry and warm weather will continue to break down at the beginning of the period. As this occurs, a mid-level trough axis is forecast to swing through the region along with a weak frontal boundary.
718 PM EDT Mon May 24 2021 High pressure continues to dominate the pattern over the forecast area.
Look for overnight lows to drop into the low to mid 60s. As the high continues to shift east/southeast on Tuesday, modest south-southwest low to mid level flow will develop over the area. This along with the higher terrain and a weaker cap may be just enough to generate isolated showers on Tuesday afternoon in our eastern counties. With little appreciable airmass change day to day, will forecast highs in the lower 90s once again.
Although the low level flow will veer through the night, it should actually provide sufficient isentropic ascent to develop at least scattered showers with a few isolated thunderstorms across this area.
641 PM CDT Mon May 24 2021 (This evening through Tuesday) Influence of upper trough moving across north-central and northeast Texas will continue into this evening, mainly across southeast and eastern Oklahoma in form of continued rain activity.
Very warm wx continues with a stacked ridge in place. It will remain quite warm Tuesday, but the ridge will begin to weaken for our area.
Lows tonight will range from the low/mid 60s inland to the upper 60s coastal, with Tuesday afternoon highs once again in the upper 80s along the immediate coast to low/mid 90s elsewhere.
RMS Wind speeds have probably already peaked for today as strongest 700mb wind speeds gradually shift to the north with the upper low over Canada. A few showers may linger over our NE zones on Tuesday as we transition from cyclonic to anti-cyclonic flow, but 500mb heights will build in from the west for a warmer day with highs in the 60s and 70s. Some afternoon showers and thunder may develop over the mountains in our west during the afternoon and evening as the next upper trough to the west pushes into the inner Rockies.
Incoming air trajectories remain rooted in somewhat cooler and drier air of continental origin.
Expect some high clouds overnight as high pressure remains in control. Lows tonight will be in the lower to middle 60s for most locations. Ridging of high pressure aloft extends from the Caribbean over the Eastern Gulf states and will continue to suppress convection across our area today and tonight. /NF/ Tuesday night through the weekend: Overall, the weather continues to look dry and warm through the work week over the ArkLaMiss region, but strong westerlies to the north are expected to infringe upon and weaken the ridge that has persisted for so long now, and this will result in greater convective rainfall chances by end of the week/weekend over mainly northern portions of the forecast area.
An upper high was centered over GA/SC. As the upper high shifts a bit further east tonight, it allows the vorticity wave now straggling the ridge along the AL/GA state line to amplify just a bit and start lifting northeast. Lows will be in the lower 60s and patchy late night fog may be possible again, mainly in northwest AL. As the high continues to shift east/southeast on Tuesday, modest south-southwest low to mid level flow will develop over the area. This along with the higher terrain and a weaker cap may be just enough to generate isolated showers on Tuesday afternoon in our eastern counties. With little appreciable airmass change day to day, will forecast highs in the lower 90s once again.
605 PM CDT Mon May 24 2021 Warm and humid southerly flow continues over the area today ahead of a trough of low pressure moving into the Northern Plains. Temperatures at 2pm ranged from the lower 70s across north central WI to the upper 70s/mid 80s elsewhere while dew points hovered in the mid-60s. Chances for showers and storms continue Tuesday as trough/surface cold front pushes toward the area.
516 PM MDT Mon May 24 2021 Any mositure across southeastern Wyoming and the western Nebraska Panhandle will diminish as a high pressure system brings dry air and continues to dominate our region through Tuesday evening. The high pressure system will continue to bring clear skies Tuesday afternoon and high temperatures will reach the.
958 PM EDT Mon May 24 2021 High pressure is forecast to provide dry weather and warm temperatures through Tuesday.
Showers will linger into Tuesday across Western Washington as an upper level trough moves across the region.
The combination of ridging and downslope west to northwest winds will keep dry and mostly sunny conditions in place for the morning. High temperatures today will trend a bit cooler than Mondays highs, mainly in the 60s. Trof moves into western foothills and mountains tonight with good precipitation chances from Stillwater county west into the mountains. Further east from Billings to Rosebud county, precipitation chances will hold off until overnight and possibly until sunrise as downsloping southwest winds will work against ascent ahead of the trof. Trof crosses the area Wednesday from west to east bringing a good chance for precipitation to the area.
Overall, the highest PoPs should remain over the Nrn half of the state which will be in closer proximity to the upper feature previously mentioned.
The low level moist air will be capped, and there shouldn't be any upper level forcing to weaken that cap. That leaves the low level jet redeveloping and it looks like that too should stay east of our area. For Tuesday, flow will turn more zonal with the closed low over Canada lifting to the northeast. Temperatures will continue their upward climb with highs in the mid to upper 70s for the plains and 60s over the high country. Upper ridging looks to prevail on Tuesday night.
Temperatures are on the way down pretty quickly this evening, so the forecast was adjusted to be a degree or so cooler in spots overnight.
All quiet across the South Florida frontier as stout high pressure maintains a dry weather pattern. Lake and sea breeze development will be possible with perhaps a shower or two, but subsidence from the deep layer ridging in place should stymie the attempts of anything notable. The middle through the end of the week should keep high pressure in control, with dry quiet weather each day. The pattern begins to change over the weekend, as high pressure breaks down and a weak 500mb short wave moves into the region.
On Tuesday, a stronger upper level low will move across the region.
235 AM MDT Tue May 25 2021 Water vapor shows upper low over southern SASK, with next upper low offshore the Pac NW and weak ridging in between. Upper low moves into the Northern Rockies on Wednesday, with deepening surface over eastern WY. Corridor of 1000-2000J/kg MLCAPE expected to develop northward into northeast WY and southwest SD, with warm front draped across the Black Hills eastward along I-90 (and good chance for low stratus north of the warm front).
Issued by National Weather Service Little Rock AR 251 AM CDT Tue May 25 2021 Warm weather continues across the Mid-South as a stacked ridge remains in place. As for the rest of the day it will continue to remain quite warm, but our high pressure will begin to weaken across the region.
A cold front will move in this evening with showers and thunderstorms that will continue into Wednesday.
157 AM EDT Tue May 25 2021 High pressure continues to dominate the pattern over the forecast area.
Slightly cooler temperatures are forecast for Tuesday, then warming to near normal Wednesday through the end of the week.
The upper level low that brought cooler air into the region over the weekend continues to exit to the northeast and is now in southern Canada, with any lingering cool air rapidly moderating. ACARS soundings show about a 2-4 C warming throughout the lower atmosphere compared to yesterday at this same time. As we head into Tuesday and Wednesday, a very weak open wave embedded in the southern periphery of the ridge will move into southern California and dissipate over Arizona.
1047 PM CDT Mon May 24 2021 (This evening through Tuesday) Influence of upper trough moving across north-central and northeast Texas will continue into this evening, mainly across southeast and eastern Oklahoma in form of continued rain activity.
444 AM EDT Tue May 25 2021 Upper level ridging is over the southeast CONUS this morning, while an upper low is over southern Saskatchewan. The low is moving east and will get absorbed into the flow of a trough traversing east southeast over Hudson Bay. The broader effects of this will further flatten the southeast CONUS ridge during the short term period. This will permit a cold front to approach from the northwest.
High pressure will continue to dominate the weather pattern affecting the Florida Keys during the next several days. Currently, an elongated ridge extends from the SE United States to the western Atlantic, centered just east of NE Florida. The ridge is expected to slowly move southward through the work week and become bifurcated late this week into the weekend, leaving the Florida Keys in or near a col region.
Deep layer synoptic ridging persists over the region with a slight shift eastward through the period. Otherwise, the large scale subsidence provided by the ridging maintains a rain-free pattern. Even given the lower PWATs, enough moisture remains in the boundary layer, and combined with light to calm winds, the temperature can cool to the dewpoint causing some patchy fog development. Highs today and Wednesday will be in the upper 80s to mid 90s inland with the higher temps over the eastern half of the CWA. Lows tonight generally range in the low to mid 60s inland, with mid to upper 60s closer to the coast.
Looking upstream, a broad cyclonic flow was rotating into the NW coastal waters with several disturbances rotating about the low. The trough traverses SE Idaho Tuesday night exiting ENE into Montana by noon Wednesday with drier conditions filtering into the region from west to east during the afternoon and evening hours. Thus, another round of rain showers are anticipated for the lower elevations with some accumulating snow possible above 6500 MSL.
Warm temperatures continue as high pressure still influences the forecast across the southeast. High pressure will still be in play on Tuesday before finally losing the battle with an approaching front for Wednesday.
Then a quiet forecast is expected for today and tonight as weak upper level ridging builds into the upper to mid Plains. Cooler temperatures in the mid 70s will remain over the Pine Ridge region. Plenty of low level moisture advection during the day combined with a lingering front across the High Plains and surface temperatures in the upper 70s to low 80s will help to support widespread thunderstorm development.
Temperatures at 8 PM were running anywhere from 5 to 10 degrees warmer than 24 hours ago. Generally, low temperatures by Tuesday morning will be around 2-4 degrees warmer than what we saw this morning. This will mean sub-freezing temperatures across portions of the high country so be sure to protect any sensitive vegetation.
9") will remain present across the area today as llvl southerly flow continues along the periphery of the ridging to our east.
Short wave ridging will be moving over the area leading to modest height rises today.
Look for overnight lows to drop into the low to mid 60s. As the high continues to shift east/southeast on Tuesday, modest south-southwest low to mid level flow will develop over the area. This along with the higher terrain and a weaker cap may be just enough to generate isolated showers on Tuesday afternoon in our eastern counties. With little appreciable airmass change day to day, will forecast highs in the lower 90s once again. Whether this can deeply penetrate the drier air and 8h ridging in place over the southeast U.
1239 AM EDT Tue May 25 2021 High pressure will provide a much drier day for most on Tuesday, but more rain and storms can be expected Wednesday. Dry weather should continue as the ridge slides east Tuesday night. Precip should end Wednesday night as the system exits and high pressure builds.
307 AM CDT Tue May 25 2021 A cold front is expected to move south and then stall across the northern Texas Panhandle this afternoon. A cap will be in place today and the atmosphere may need the cold front to help break the cap. A tornado can not be ruled out, mainly along the cold front.
Deep layer synoptic ridging persists over the region with a slight shift eastward through the period. Otherwise, the large scale subsidence provided by the ridging maintains a rain-free pattern. Even given the lower PWATs, enough moisture remains in the boundary layer, and combined with light to calm winds, the temperature can cool to the dewpoint causing some patchy fog development. For temps, lows tonight and Tuesday night generally range in the low to mid 60s inland, with mid to upper 60s closer to the coast. For highs on Tuesday and Wednesday, upper 80s to mid 90s are expected over the region with the higher temps over the eastern half of the CWA.
On track for a mild night, and actually starting to feel a bit muggy with low-level southerly flow under the strong ridge of high pressure. During the overnight hours and into tomorrow, we'll see a slight decrease in mid-level geopotential heights over our region as our stubborn ridge of high pressure begins to slowly break down and shift eastward. The upper level ridge axis that has been providing the dry and warm weather will continue to break down at the beginning of the period. As this occurs, a mid-level trough axis is forecast to swing through the region along with a weak frontal boundary. Freezing levels are pretty high and low-mid level lapse rates are pretty marginal.
There may be an isolated shower or even a thunderstorm around this afternoon with the highest chance around TRI, but even there the probability looks too low to include for now. LW Chattanooga Airport, TN 92 68 93 68 92 / 20 0 10 10 20 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 89 68 90 66 90 / 10 10 10 20 30 Oak Ridge, TN 90 66 91 65 90 / 10 10 20 20 30 Tri Cities Airport, TN 87 65 88 63 87 / 20 10 20 30 30.
257 AM EDT Tue May 25 2021 High pressure surface and aloft will hold over the Florida peninsula through Wednesday with continued dry conditions and overall temperatures running a few degrees above climatic normals. over the course of the week and will gradually suppress/erode the U/L ridge over the Gulf of Mexico and Florida with heights gradually falling late in the week and over the weekend. The lowering heights will weaken the strong subsidence currently over the region. Temperatures late in the week and over the weekend will run near climatic normals with highs around 90 to the lower 90s.
Showers will linger into Tuesday across Western Washington as an upper level trough moves across the region. A weak upper level ridge will briefly provide drier and somewhat warmer conditions on Wednesday.
The quiet weather will continue to stick around through the near term as an upper level ridge begins to break down. Dry mid-level air and mostly clear conditions overnight will allow one last night of near to slightly below temperatures with lows in the low to mid 60s. Warmer conditions expected Tuesday with high temperatures moving into the low 90s. This feature combined with little cloud cover will allow us to easily warm into the low to mid 90s through the middle of the week.
301 AM EDT Tue May 25 2021 Very warm and humid conditions will persist today within increasing southwest low level flow in advance of an encroaching cold front. The best coverage of rain will settle south during Wednesday, but persist into the afternoon as the aforementioned cold front finally makes inroads into the region by late afternoon/early evening. Before this fropa, temperatures will once again reach the lower 80s in many locations despite the cloud cover and periodic showers.
) Stacked low pressure system over eastern Saskatchewan will move east across southern Manitoba today and bring its increasing pressure gradient along with a cold front to the FA today. As the upper low pushes east a cold front with CAA and rise fall couplet will enhance the gusts potential into the evening and thus will keep the wind advisory going through 9pm for areas along and west of a Roseau to Fergus Falls line. Additionally the cold front is expected to bring a few fast moving showers, possibly embedded with thunder, to the area along and north of Hwy 2 which could also mix down some of the strong winds aloft. A cool but dry Wednesday is expected with northerly breeze as high pressure brings a cool late May day with highs in the 50s for most of the FA.
The upper low over southern Canada will track east today, pushing the sfc boundary even further south into the Central Plains. Cooler, and even drier air should advect south into the forecast area, especially this afternoon.
1101 PM CDT Mon May 24 2021 Warm and humid southerly flow continues over the area today ahead of a trough of low pressure moving into the Northern Plains. Temperatures at 2pm ranged from the lower 70s across north central WI to the upper 70s/mid 80s elsewhere while dew points hovered in the mid-60s. Chances for showers and storms continue Tuesday as trough/surface cold front pushes toward the area.
A line of organized convection is possible during the late afternoon and early evening hours as the right entrance region of a strong upper jet moves across northern Wisconsin while a cold front approaches from the west. Temperatures in the low 80s are possible with any sun at all. Clearing is expected later tonight with cooler and drier air arriving behind the cold front.
The ridge axis in the vicinity has resulted in calm to light and variable winds. into the lower 90s/near 90 in the northeast. High pressure at the surface and ridging aloft will weaken over the region just enough on Wednesday, allowing a disturbance aloft to send a boundary to the forecast area's doorstep. The boundary will make little, if any, progress into the forecast area as high pressure just won't completely relinquish its grip on the CWA.
Hot and dry today with deep layer ridging remaining in place over the region. The low level ridge is sitting to our east over the Wrn Atlantic waters and the mid- and upper-level ridge axis is stretching across NE FL and SE GA to near the TN-NC border. Highs will be in the low to mid 90s today, with upper 80s at the beaches. Overnight lows will be in the low to mid 60s across inland portions of the area, with lows in the upper 60s at the beaches.