Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
229 PM CST Mon Dec 21 2020 Upper level ridging continues to build into the area this afternoon which has led to sunny skies and well above normal temperatures. Low-level thermal ridge will expand further east into the region tomorrow pushing highs into the mid to upper 60s for a large portion of eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas with some locations approaching 70 again tomorrow. An upper trough begins to dig across the Intermountain West on Tuesday evening with surface cyclogenesis occurring across western Kansas on Tuesday night with associated cold front extending from western Minnesota south into the Texas Panhandle.
The tail end of the cold front has finally pushed south of the Treasure Coast late this morning, with drier, cooler air filtering in behind the front. This cooler air caused temps to drop 4-5 degrees after sunrise this morning. Will have to watch the low clouds working their way south from north Florida, though dry air is also causing these to break up.
High pressure will remain centered over our area this evening.
256 PM CST Mon Dec 21 2020 An upper level ridge is building towards the area from the west this afternoon and will move over the area on Tuesday. Warmer air is spreading into the area as temperatures are currently in the upper 50s to the lower 60s. Highs on Tuesday will be even warmer than Monday as temperatures warm in the lower to middle 60s. Lows Tuesday morning will drop into the lower to middle 30s.
228 PM EST Mon Dec 21 2020 Yet another cold front has pushed through the Florida Keys today. These cold fronts have been almost cyclic so far this season, occurring once every three to four days. The higher winds being observed over the Lower Keys and its coastal waters will spread eastward over the next several hours.
/issued 331 AM CST Mon Dec 21 2020/ A flattened upper level high pressure ridge over the desert southwest early this morning will transition east over the southern high plains later today. Southwest flow aloft will follow this ridge axis later tonight. Warmer air will be spreading in aloft not far off the surface.
1138 AM CST Mon Dec 21 2020 (Today and tonight) Weak upper level ridging today will result in above normal temperatures across West Central Texas. Overnight low temperatures will be in the mid 30s to lower 40s, although a few low lying locations may drop into the lower 30s.
220 PM CST Mon Dec 21 2020 Quiet weather is on tap through Tuesday night, as an area of high pressure moves east across the Mississippi Valley. Temperatures have reached the low to mid 50s in much of the forecast area this afternoon. Upper level trough currently off the Pacific Northwest coast will dig as it moves into the Plains, drawing a cold air mass southward.
For the afternoon, mid-level ridge is situated over the southwest CONUS & our west, while we remain under northwesterly flow aloft. Mean troughing will persist across areas along & east of the Mississippi River Valley while mean ridging to the west. With similar thermal setup to yesterday but full insolation & efficient mixing, a more seasonal afternoon is in store as we warm above normal into the low-mid 60s under sunny skies. For tonight, with clear skies and weak high pressure persisting, another round of fog is anticipated as large T/Td crossover occurs again with lows in the mid/upper 30s - well below expected crossover temperatures in the low/mid 40s.
The first full day of Winter will be even warmer though. Upper level heights remain relatively flat in wake of the pivoting ridge axis, helping to keep temperatures from pushing even higher with the expected downslope component.
WV imagery shows West Texas and Southeast New Mexico and the east side of an upper level ridge that extends into the Pacific. Overnight, an upper trough will make landfall in the PacNW, and dig down to the Four Corners by 00Z Wed. Leeside troughing ahead of this feature on the Front Range will induce a more westerly surface wind component here, w/downslope warming resulting in even warmer temps than today's.
Gusty winds in the 25-35 mph range have been observed across the area this afternoon as the pressure gradient tightens between the low passing to the north and the high to the south. With northwest flow and clear skies, temperatures tonight will fall into the lower 30s.
1000 AM CST Mon Dec 21 2020 (Issued 1000 AM CST Mon Dec 21 2020) A few light rain and snow showers will accompany the passing low pressure system this afternoon. Fortunately, the precipitation should remain light and pavement temperatures should warm above freezing. Today through Tuesday: Chances for very light rain and maybe a few snow showers will linger from the late morning through the remainder of the day before a cold front swings through tonight. High pressure will then build in for Tuesday.
1008 AM EST Mon Dec 21 2020 Conditions will improve over the next few days as high pressure builds in. A strong cold front will move across later in the week followed by a couple of days of very cold temperatures. High pressure will move offshore as a strong cold front moves into the area late in the period.
1011 AM MST Mon Dec 21 2020 A fast west to northwest flow aloft prevailed between a upper ridge over the western CONUS and upper trough over the eastern CONUS. The High Wind Warning for Cheyenne, Wheatland, Laramie and Shirley Basin wil expire at 5 AM this morning, while the Warning continues for the wind-prone zones until 5 PM this afternoon.
1121 AM CST Mon Dec 21 2020 (Today and tonight) Weak boundary will work south through the area this morning, bringing in an airmass off the higher terrain to our northwest.
1126 AM EST Mon Dec 21 2020 Conditions will improve over the next few days as high pressure builds in. A strong cold front will move across later in the week followed by a couple of days of very cold temperatures. High pressure will move offshore as a strong cold front moves into the area late in the period.
Warm front lifting northeast this afternoon is producing light precip over central Montana. There is a small possibility that some freezing drizzle may affect the northern zones mainly this evening.
/issued 711 AM EST Mon Dec 21 2020/ A cold front. slowly pushes east as high pressure builds into the western Gulf of Mexico today. This will usher in drier and slightly cooler air on northwest flow. A front sweeping across the waters as high pressure builds in to the west will keep robust to strong northwest to north winds in place for the next 18 hours or so. Winds begin to veer and diminish Tue and continue until late in the week when a cold front approaches from the west with increasing winds.
As high pressure begins to slide further east on Tuesday, winds begin to shift to a an ESE direction.
Went ahead and cancelled the high wind warning we had out through 5 PM today to get us ready for the next warning set to begin tonight. the next low pressure system moving into eastern Washington State.
805 PM EST Mon Dec 21 2020 High pressure will remain over the region tonight with fairly light wind flow and temperatures bottoming out in the 40s and 50s. High pressure over the region will continue to move eastward over the next couple of days, with winds and seas remaining below headlines.
Tomorrow still looks dry, windy, and unseasonably warm ahead of an approaching cold front with elevated fire weather concerns still likely by the afternoon.
659 PM EST Mon Dec 21 2020 Breezy conditions through tonight as high pressure along with dry air build into the region.
The fog forecast for tonight becomes tricky as we're still holding on to aforementioned fog and low cloud and we have a trough passing to our north. The trough will bring mountain showers, mainly to the southern Cascades with winds picking up later in the day on Tuesday.
344 PM CST Mon Dec 21 2020 Above-normal temperatures continue across the region today with upper-level ridging overhead and favorable low-level mixing winds.
South winds at the surface will bring in much warmer air. These will help slow the fall in temperatures tonight with lows in the 20s to the lower 30s. Tuesday will see mostly sunny skies with south winds mixing out the warmer air off the surface. Highs will be in the upper 40s northeast cwa to the lower 60s southwest. Deterministic GFS is still on the higher end of its family of ensemble members however, and the trend continues to be around a tenth or so of QPF, while other deterministic guidance is still less than that. Despite the low QPF there is still a great signal for snow (though the rapidity of saturation in the dendritic growth zone may still lend to some spotty/brief freezing rain prior to change over).
324 PM CST Mon Dec 21 2020 Weak high pressure was building east into the central Plains this afternoon with some occasional gusts around 20 mph as mixing depths increase, though these modest winds will be the exception over the next few days. As 925 mb winds approach 50 knots with an upper trough digging into the northern Plains, speeds may flirt with these levels through much of the night, especially across higher elevations in east-central Kansas.
/Issued 229 PM CST Mon Dec 21 2020/ Upper level ridging continues to build into the area this afternoon which has led to sunny skies and well above normal temperatures. Low-level thermal ridge will expand further east into the region tomorrow pushing highs into the mid to upper 60s for a large portion of eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas with some locations approaching 70 again tomorrow. An upper trough begins to dig across the Intermountain West on Tuesday evening with surface cyclogenesis occurring across western Kansas on Tuesday night with associated cold front extending from western Minnesota south into the Texas Panhandle.
High pressure over the region will keep the weather dry and stable through Christmas Day.
153 PM PST Mon Dec 21 2020 High pressure over the region will keep the weather dry and stable through Christmas Day.
Tonightâs weather system, in the form of a well defined low pressure center and cold front, is currently moving into western Washington. Snow levels are rising and will be above most valley floors ahead of the cold front. Snow levels will rapidly drop to valley floors behind the cold front, and gusty winds up to 45 mph are expected with quickly dropping temperatures. Rain changing to snow, gusty winds, and temperatures below freezing may lead to icy conditions throughout the region overnight tonight. Northwest Montana has the highest potential for widespread accumulating snow during Tuesday morning due to the path of the low pressure center and a reinforcing cold front forecast to drop out of Canada.
602 PM CST Mon Dec 21 2020 Quiet weather is on tap through Tuesday night, as an area of high pressure moves east across the Mississippi Valley. Temperatures have reached the low to mid 50s in much of the forecast area this afternoon. Upper level trough currently off the Pacific Northwest coast will dig as it moves into the Plains, drawing a cold air mass southward.
/Issued 300 PM EST Mon Dec 21 2020/ High pressure will prevail through the short term, keeping conditions dry. At this point, will hold off on a Wind Advisory given highest gusts limited primarily to the highest ridgetops.
335 PM MST Mon Dec 21 2020 Water vapor imagery and 500mb RAP analysis showed a trough across the eastern CONUS, with an upper ridge moving into the northern and central Rockies. Meanwhile at the surface, high pressure drifted across the area. The upper ridge pushes from the Rockies into the Plains tonight, with mostly clear skies prevailing and temperatures ranging from the upper teens near Kit Carson, Colorado to the low 30s near Hill City, Kansas. The upper flow turns to the southwest on the backside of the ridge as a disturbance pushes from the Pacific Northwest towards the High Plains. With this wave comes a strong cold front which is pegged to move through the region Tuesday night. More importantly, this cold front looks to bring strong winds and a return to colder temperatures.
Conditions will improve again by mid-morning, leaving behind a VFR day with a somewhat strengthening srly flow by late in the day as high pressure pulls east of the area. High pressure will remain centered over our area this evening.
With an increase in low-level thermal profiles, expect a nice afternoon with warmer than seasonable conditions, generally in the mid to upper 60s. With a deepening longwave trough & developing low pressure system on the lee of the Rockies & northern Great Plains, westerly flow aloft will spread some high level cirrus over the region.
Weak high pressure was building east into the central Plains this afternoon with some occasional gusts around 20 mph as mixing depths increase, though these modest winds will be the exception over the next few days. As 925 mb winds approach 50 knots with an upper trough digging into the northern Plains, speeds may flirt with these levels through much of the night, especially across higher elevations in east-central Kansas.
519 PM CST Mon Dec 21 2020 An upper level ridge is building towards the area from the west this afternoon and will move over the area on Tuesday. Warmer air is spreading into the area as temperatures are currently in the upper 50s to the lower 60s. Highs on Tuesday will be even warmer than Monday as temperatures warm in the lower to middle 60s. Lows Tuesday morning will drop into the lower to middle 30s.
Above-normal temperatures continue across the region today with upper-level ridging overhead and favorable low-level mixing winds.
A zonal upper level flow pattern will turn southwest on Wednesday as an upper trough approaches from the west. High temperatures Tuesday will be in the low to mid 60s. Moisture levels begin to increase Tuesday night into Wednesday as a southerly flow develops ahead of an approaching upper trough and associated sfc cold front. Lows Tuesday night range from the low to mid 40s inland to low 50s near the coast.
A cold front and its associated line of precipitation is currently in western Oregon this evening, and is on track to arrive in eastern Oregon by late tonight. Precip will fall mostly as snow, except in the lowest elevations where a mix of rain and snow is likely. High temperatures should be 15-20 degrees cooler on Tuesday than they were today, but still above normal for this time of year. A strong cold front will cross the region from the west tonight, with areas of MVFR/IFR conditions in rain and snow, and mountain obscuration. Very mild weather will end as a strong North Pacific cold front moves through overnight and early Tuesday morning.
Warm front lifting northeast this afternoon is producing light precip over central Montana. There is a small possibility that some freezing drizzle may affect the northern zones mainly this evening. Thereafter, an upper ridge over the Pacific NW Wednesday will drift east that will allow milder Pacific air to return.
352 AM EST Tue Dec 22 2020 High pressure will track across Kentucky today, resulting in gradual clearing.
1012 PM MST Mon Dec 21 2020 High pressure will continue to slide eastward over the forecast area through the overnight hours, maintaining dry conditions. A cold front will push through northern Utah tomorrow and into southern Utah tomorrow night. High pressure will follow through the late week, with valley inversions developing. A storm system over Washington with its associated cold front stretching southward into northern CA will move southeast into NW Utah by mid morning tomorrow. A sharp cold front will move trough about 16-17Z with winds shifting to the northwest and potential wind gusts over 30 kts through the early afternoon.
Most of the accumulations will be in the higher terrain and I-80 corridor. Ideal lake/air temperature difference will allow for light snow showers to linger over the ridges and the I-80 corridor. High pressure will track across the Central Appalachians and off the Atlantic coast on Wednesday, with dry weather anticipated. As a strengthening upper trough digs into the northern Plains on Wednesday, increasing southwest flow will ramp up warm advection over our region, driving temperatures above seasonal averages.
Above-normal temperatures continue across the region today with upper-level ridging overhead and favorable low-level mixing winds. As the upper trough axis slides into southern MN Wednesday afternoon, a secondary vorticity maximum is forecast to move into northeast Nebraska Wednesday afternoon which could produce a bit of light snow in the afternoon.
Most of the accumulations will be in the higher terrain and I-80 corridor. With a bit warmer temperatures overnight, also lowered the snow accumulations. Ideal lake/air temperature difference will allow for light snow showers to linger over the ridges and the I-80 corridor. High pressure will track across the Central Appalachians and off the Atlantic coast on Wednesday, with dry weather anticipated. As a strengthening upper trough digs into the northern Plains on Wednesday, increasing southwest flow will ramp up warm advection over our region, driving temperatures above seasonal averages.
329 AM EST Tue Dec 22 2020 High pressure will move overhead later today and Wednesday. A strong cold front will move across later in the week followed by high pressure and temperatures well below normal for the end of the week. Latest sfc analysis shows 1025 mb high pressure centered along the central Gulf coast with a weak front over the OH Valley. The high spreads E into and over the area through tonight, leading to a sunny sky today and decreasing wind late. The high then slides offshore for Wed, with return flow allowing for an upward nudge in temps.
In response to an approaching cold front, surface winds, from the south or southwest will continue. Overnight lows tonight will be warmer than last night's lows and much closer to usual late December lows. Highs tomorrow will be much warmer than usual - perhaps as much as 10 to 15 degrees warmer.
Another round of widespread low elevation rain and mountain snow will move through the Inland Northwest tonight with a strong cold front. Gusty southwest winds will ramp up overnight with this cold front. Cooler and more stable weather will arrive Wednesday and persist through late week. Strong pre-cold front winds failed to materialize this evening. However, the cold front has emerged east of the Cascades and will provide the mechanism to translate winds aloft down to the surface. As the cold front reaches Spokane and Pullman around 11 PM look for gusts to increase. post cold front. POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO BRING STRONG WINDS TODAY. 06Z TAFS: A strong cold front is moving through this evening bringing gusty winds and light precipitation behind the front.
1130 PM CST Mon Dec 21 2020 An upper level ridge is building towards the area from the west this afternoon and will move over the area on Tuesday. Warmer air is spreading into the area as temperatures are currently in the upper 50s to the lower 60s.
Temps will continue to run about 5- 10F degrees above normal for mid-late December with widespread upper 50s to upper 60s across the area today (exception in the highest elevations of far north/northeast GA). For late in the period (Wed aftn), short-range models do show an increase in low lvl moisture which could translate to some very light shower activity developing across the higher elevations of north GA.
High pressure ridge will begin to build across the Southeast as we start our second day of winter and will continue to dominate weather conditions through mid week. Dewpoints will go also go down into the 40s by this afternoon, but could dip into the upper 30s on Wednesday as high pressure continues to build. Northerly winds will slowly become more northeasterly through today, but will be prevailing from the east to southeast going into Christmas Eve as broad low pressure system approaches the region.
These should end around daybreak as ridging quickly lowers inversion heights and caps boundary layer convection at about 3,000 feet / -7 C according to the HRRR, though other mesoscale models have the cap lower and warmer. On the heels of Tuesday's high pressure will be a sprawling Midwest low moving toward Lake Superior on Wednesday. The cold front moves through Wednesday night, and arctic-sourced air flows into the region.
JB Chattanooga Airport, TN 36 58 35 57 42 / 0 0 0 10 90 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 35 52 31 57 42 / 10 0 0 0 90 Oak Ridge, TN 34 52 32 57 41 / 0 0 0 10 90 Tri Cities Airport, TN 33 49 29 54 40 / 10 10 0 0 80.
1021 PM EST Mon Dec 21 2020 Currently - In wake of today's cold front, surface winds are broadly out of the north ranging from moderate to fresh on our western areas and substantially weaker over much of our eastern portions. Cooler and drier air continues to spread across the Keys. The shorter fetch over admittedly warm bay and sound waters might allow portions of the Upper Keys to dip a bit lower into the lower 60s. Moderate to fresh northerly breezes are expected to develop across all Keys waters overnight in wake of the day's cold front.
after the low level inversion breaks by mid-day, it will not be the best low-level GA flying wx with plenty of thermal bumps. The first full day of Winter will be even warmer though. Upper level heights remain relatively flat in wake of the pivoting ridge axis, helping to keep temperatures from pushing even higher with the expected downslope component. A sharpening upper level short wave trough will move west to east across the Great Plains Wednesday morning with a strong cold front pushing southward down the High Plains late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. This front will bring sharply cooler temperatures from Tuesday afternoon's warmth.
245 AM CST Tue Dec 22 2020 A very fall like day is in store for the Ozarks today as an upper level ridge slides across the region allowing for ample sunshine. The wind gradient will continue into tonight as a cold front approaches the region from the plains. The winds will help to keep warmer temperatures overnight with lows in the 40s.
Elevated winds will be in response to an approaching low pressure system/cold front over the C Plains. Changes are in store for Wednesday, however, as a more prominent longwave trof moves into the midsection of the country. At the surface, a cold front will begin to push into NW Arkansas by mid- morning. This combination will make for a cloudier, cooler, and wetter day across the Natural State.
Gusty southwest winds also develop tomorrow, ahead of dry cold front due tomorrow night and Wednesday.
A cold front will then drop temperatures 10-15 degrees area wide on Wednesday and bring strong north winds to the Colorado River Valley. Temperatures tonight running several degrees warmer than past nights under the influence of an anomalous high pressure ridge and following a day of near record high temps across the region.
554 AM CST Tue Dec 22 2020 A very fall like day is in store for the Ozarks today as an upper level ridge slides across the region allowing for ample sunshine. The wind gradient will continue into tonight as a cold front approaches the region from the plains. The winds will help to keep warmer temperatures overnight with lows in the 40s.
A high pressure system in the south is producing a light northwesterly flow for the local area. As the high pressure system shifts to the northeast, the winds locally will also shift, becoming more northeasterly by this afternoon/evening. Overnight lows will be few degrees warmer than last night, with lows in the mid 40s, with the coast remaining in the low to mid 50s. Winds are expected to be generally NW around 10-15 KT today, before veering to the NE this evening as a high pressure system in the south shifts northeastward today.
At 400 AM, a broad shield of cirrus stretched from the High Plains to central Iowa (an harbinger of the approaching storm system). The tightening gradients should increase southerly flow and combine with a well mixed boundary layer in the lowest 4,000 ft to produce gusty south winds this afternoon.