Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Surface wise, a broad western Atlantic ridge axis is aligned across South Florida, resulting in mainly southeast winds of 10 knots or less. In 2003, the low temperature in Key West was 85 degrees, which ties as the warmest low temperature ever recorded during the month of September.
617 AM CDT SAT SEP 3 2016 Ridging, both at the surface and aloft, remains over the Upper Midwest this morning. This will allow a southwest flow to set up over the high plains placing the local region in between the main southwest flow and ridging to the east. The southwest flow is expected to have several short wave troughs in it, but the question will be whether these will pass close enough to the area to generate enough lift to help produce showers and storms. The first short wave trough in this flow should come out of Wyoming and pass through the Dakotas Sunday night with a trailing, weaker wave coming across Minnesota into northern Wisconsin.
612 AM CDT SAT SEP 3 2016 Ridge of high pressure extending from the Great Lakes to the Southern Plains will dominate the weather across central Illinois today. An upper-level blocking pattern will be present across the eastern CONUS for the next several days. Further west, pronounced upper ridging will remain in place over the Midwest, leading to a prolonged period of warm and dry weather.
VFR/mainly SKC conditions expected thru 04/12Z per prevailing ridging influences surface and aloft.
Large area of high pressure and deep dry air is settled over the Great Lakes. Today and tonight: We are still going to be dominated by the high pressure, which will edge it's way just east of nrn Michigan. We will continue to be in the core of the driest air around, as well as subsidence underneath an axis of mid level ridging.
Much cooler air will be in place today with afternoon highs about 15 to 20 degrees cooler than the past several days. A large trough centered over the Pacific Northwest will slowly shift east later today into tonight.
Morning surface analysis had an inverted trough over east Mississippi. Latest satellite analysis showed the region under an upper trough in the wake of the stationary front to the south. Overnight conditions were on the more comfortable side with dewpoints in the lower 60s to the lower 70s. Models showed the surface inverted trough moving around our eastern counties for this afternoon. As far as temps are concern, highs for today will range from the upper 80s northwest to the lower 90s elsewhere. Highs for Sunday will be in the lower 90s. Lows for tonight will range from the middle 60s northwest to the lower 70s. then will push back into the lower to middle 70s for Sunday night.
Cooler than normal conditions will be in store for interior locations through the Labor Day weekend. A broad upper level trough over the Western US is slowly moving east out of the area. For NW California, we are on the southern fringe of the trough. The impact from this trough will mainly be slightly cooler temperatures and more mid and high level clouds during the day. With this thickness value, do expect inland temperatures to be slightly cooler than average.
1012 AM EDT SAT SEP 3 2016 Tropical Storm Hermine now off the SE coast of Virginia with high pressure ridging southward from the Great Lakes into the Tennessee Valley. This ridge will dominate the weekend forecast. Chattanooga Airport, TN 88 65 89 68 / 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 86 62 87 64 / 0 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 86 62 88 65 / 0 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 81 57 83 58 / 0 0 0 0.
Extensive cloud cover has developed in the cooler easterly flow regime across East Alabama. Satellite imagery also shows the highest precipitable water values have shifted to areas west of I-65 as drier mid level air advects southward into Georgia. The cooler easterly flow will keep temperatures below 90 degrees for areas along and west of I-65.
/ISSUED 429 AM CDT Sat Sep 3 2016/ Surface analysis this morning shows drier air over the ARKLATEX with still quite a bit of moisture over SE Texas with dewpoints in the low/mid 70s. Upper level ridging will be looking to expand over the southern U.
633 AM CDT SAT SEP 3 2016 Today will be another nice day across the Ozarks as high pressure remains over the region. Highs will be in the lower to middle 80s during the day.
Low pressure trough over the Gulf of Mexico will act a focus for additional development of convection later today. /issued 402 AM CDT SAT SEP 3 2016/ SHORT TERM (Today through Sunday):500mb ridge axis over West Texas to become oriented NE-SW the next 24 -36 hours with weak northeast-east flow becoming increasingly southeast and allowing for an increase in moisture. As the ridge axis moves eastward drier air is seen on the water vapor loop which should keep the mid and upper levels of the atmosphere fairly dry today. Winds turn more southeast but remain light enough for the sea breeze acting as a better low level convergence and combining with the mid level trough producing a better chance of convection.
Meanwhile across the South, the Atlantic ridge gradually builds over South Florida bringing in drier air into the area. Southerly wind will continue to subside over the coast waters this weekend with high pressure building across the region.
The high shifts further east on Sunday with a bit more of a south or southeast wind expected due to more of a pressure gradient between the departed high and low pressure trough in the Plains. High pressure centered over the great Lakes will result in a persistent light southeast flow across southern Lake Michigan with waves up to 2 feet through Sunday. A large high pressure area will prevail from the ern Great Lakes into New England while the high amplitude but narrow upper ridge over WI shifts ewd for tonight. Ridging will hold strong over the mid Mississippi River Valley.
This is despite the fact that water vapor imagery is showing the upper high near the Big Bend and some drier more subsident air over the region. Even harder Sunday as the upper high moves east and moisture improves along with convergence.
1008 AM EDT SAT SEP 3 2016 High pressure will remain in place across the region through the Labor Day weekend. High pressure and dry conditions will be in place today. Hermine will remain just off the mid atlantic coast through the Labor Weekend as high pressure and subsidence remain in place across the Ohio Valley region.
High pressure transiting the great lakes will then bring clear skies and a light northeast wind that will gradually weaken through the day. High pressure is firmly established over lower Michigan, southern Ontario, and into southern Quebec this morning. This in combination with the upper level ridge also centered over the Great Lakes will continue to produce clear sky over SE Michigan today through Sunday.
630 AM CDT SAT SEP 3 2016 The central CONUS was situated along the inflection point between longwave troughing across the western CONUS and ridging across the the Great Lakes Region.
1008 AM EDT SAT SEP 3 2016 High pressure will continue to build out of the northern Great Lakes and into northern New England today. The high will shift offshore late tonight and remain anchored over the maritimes through mid week.
trough is expected to drive cool and wet weather conditions across the region at times through the Labor Day weekend.
As the influence of Hermine continues to wane, high pressure over the western Atlantic will attempt to build northward. The Atlantic high pressure ridge nosing back towards the southern peninsula has already decreased the pressure gradient substantially.
805 PM EDT Sat Apr 1 2017 Building high pressure should result in dry weather through Sunday. After a quick burnoff of any morning fog, Sunday morning and early afternoon will feature mostly-sunny sky and light wind as high pressure crosses the region. These clouds will be insufficient to prevent ample heating into the low 60s for highs. A closed upper low will eject from the Southern Plains and move slowly newd to begin the week.
1014 PM EDT Sat Apr 1 2017 Deepening low pressure east of Long Island will depart overnight.
656 PM MDT Sat Apr 1 2017 Current llvl Water Vapor satellite loop shows the upper level low near the Arizona/New Mexico border this afternoon. This low has moved very little over the last 24 hours from a position just south of the four corners region yesterday. However, with south winds across the high plains, there is some concern for fog along the Pine Ridge and Cheyenne Ridge. High res models are in agreement with fog along I-80 from the Summit eastward to Sidney in addition to the Pine Ridge from around Lusk eastward to the northern NE panhandle late this evening and tonight. Sunday will be relatively quiet and slightly warmer, with highs in the 50's to low 60's.
513 PM MDT Sat Apr 1 2017 Split flow upper levels continue across the CONUS as a large upper low drifts across the Four Corners. Return flow will continue to bring warmer temps across the area for Sunday with highs in the 50s and 60s.
Weak ridging is in place aloft with a lower level ridge centered near Florida.
Cirrus will continue to spill over upstream mid-level ridging across southern Wisconsin during the night.
1101 PM CDT Sat Apr 1 2017 Cloud cover pretty minimal this afternoon with only some cirrus extending from the deep low pressure in New Mexico. Highs under the cloud cover will be in the lower to mid 50s while in central SD it could sneak up close to 70.
Otherwise, light/variable winds will become SSE on Sunday (under 10 knots) as high pressure exits to the east. Deep column subsidence occurred in earnest this morning in response to higher geopotential heights backfilling the departing upper level low pressure system. For the remainder of this afternoon and evening will see prototypical early Spring weather with a lake aggregate surface anticyclone in control. An upper level trough, with some support from front entrance region dynamics of upper level jet overhead, is actually shown to work across the northern Great Lakes this afternoon as a lobe to much stronger planetary vorticity feature over northern Canada. With the low dewpoints and polar origin to the air mass, conditions should become chilly soon after sunset. Lows tonight should drop to the freezing mark or a couple of degrees above it.
743 PM EDT Sat Apr 1 2017 Aviation High pressure will continue to bring fair weather through Sunday afternoon and it will become milder Sunday.
930 PM CDT Sat Apr 1 2017 The forecast for a relatively mild overnight with lows in the upper 30s to the lower 40s is well on track under an expansive cirrus shield and mixing via southerly flow ahead of low pressure across southern Saskatchewan. A trailing cold front will bring northwesterly winds of 10 to 20 mph to western and central ND Sunday.
622 PM CDT Sat Apr 1 2017 Numerous showers with a few embedded storms will gradually shift eastward and northeastward across the area tonight with the highest probabilities arriving across mainly Southeast KS toward morning.
/Issued 328 PM EDT Sat Apr 1 2017/ Dry weather will continue as the upper ridge moves across the forecast area through Sunday. Moisture will increase into the lower MS River Valley Sunday afternoon ahead of a southern stream short wave.
929 PM EDT Sat Apr 1 2017 High pressure builds in later tonight into Sunday.
920 PM EDT Sat Apr 1 2017 A dry cold front will surge south through NC overnight. Pacific high pressure will shift southeast from the Midwest across NC on Sunday and then offshore Sunday night.
515 PM MDT Sat Apr 1 2017 Light precipitation continues to lift northward across the area, associated with the upper low moving into the southern plains. The precipitation will gradually end tonight as the upper low moves into Texas.
1210 AM EDT Sun Apr 2 2017 Low pressure south of the Gulf of Maine will exit southeast of Nova Scotia overnight.
1135 PM CDT Sat Apr 1 2017 Satellite indicates a near vertical low pressure system over western NM with a strong push of warm air advection and moisture convergence over central Kansas. This added lift, moisture convergence, isentropic lift in the low levels, and low level jet will culminate in a broad area of rain showers and isolated elevated thunderstorms tonight into Sunday morning.
Latest convective trends and 00Z NAM indicate the potential for a heavier rain band to develop along inverted trough axis overnight in association with initial upper jet streak lifting into Kansas.
706 PM EDT Sat Apr 1 2017 High pressure building into the region will ensure fair weather through Sunday.
956 PM CDT Sat Apr 1 2017 Winds still very light over the far northeast and temps quite a bit cooler around Baudette/Bemidji areas so have lowered temperatures into the mid 30s across the northeastern zones. but much warmer over the west where increasing winds late in the night will keep overnight lows from dropping into the 30s. Also cloud cover over my NW will result in these warmer temps.
749 PM EDT Sat Apr 1 2017 Low pressure south of the Gulf of Maine will exit southeast of Nova Scotia overnight.
The axis of an upper ridge west of the area this evening slides east. The upper ridge generally maintains a warm stable and somewhat drier airmass through the period. High pressure across the waters will slide east as a frontal boundary moves northward over Fl through Mon.
At some point expect a more solid line to take shape in close proximity to the warm front near CLL-UTS- DKR with longer duration impacts for those areas. Dry slotting works into the area late afternoon but may see a few storms develop along the Pacific cold front as it marches through the region in the out period and beyond.
1215 AM EDT Sun Apr 2 2017 Building high pressure should result in dry weather through Sunday. A series of low pressure areas will keep periodic rain chances in the forecast for the upcoming work week. Stratus is expected to continue clearing from W-E as high pressure builds in. After a quick burnoff of any morning fog, Sunday morning and early afternoon will feature mostly-sunny sky and light wind as high pressure crosses the region. These clouds will be insufficient to prevent ample heating into the low 60s for highs. A closed upper low will eject from the Southern Plains and move slowly newd to begin the week.
1042 PM EDT Sat Apr 1 2017 Temps/dewpts on track for near term trends this evening and relatively benign regime dominated from ridge to north. Should start seeing a NE fetch shift after midnight from inverted ridging making its way along the eastern Appalachian slopes from the parent high sliding eastward.
Scattered to broken high clouds continue to spill across upper ridge into southern Wisconsin and the region this evening. Next batch of broken to overcast cirrus advancing into western WI from IA/MN and should affect the area most of the night as upstream warm air advection continues in the central Plains ahead of next short wave trof pushing toward the southern Plains. The winds will switch back to the south to southeast on Sunday ahead of developing low pressure in the southern Plains. Cirrus will continue to spill over upstream mid-level ridging across southern Wisconsin during the night.
A cold front is progged to move across the forecast area late tonight followed by an upper level disturbance moving southeast out of Canada during the day Sunday. This will bring lowering heights, cooler temperatures and increasing chances for rain late tonight and especially during the day Sunday into Sunday night. A weak cold front will move through the area tonight, pulled through by upper divergence as one jet streak kicks northeast and a new Pacific jetlet dives just southwest of the area. By mid day tomorrow inverted surface trof will become a focus for shower development from near Billings east into the Miles City area, with a slow progression eastward into Sunday night.
1120 PM CDT Sat Apr 1 2017 Updated aviation section for 06z taf issuance As expected, the low clouds have cleared over a good bit of the area, with the exception being the Evansville Tri State area where the low-level flow is cyclonic.
Winds still very light over the far northeast and temps quite a bit cooler around Baudette/Bemidji areas so have lowered temperatures into the mid 30s across the northeastern zones. but much warmer over the west where increasing winds late in the night will keep overnight lows from dropping into the 30s. Also cloud cover over my NW will result in these warmer temps.
Showers will continue to spread across our area overnight as the cold front moves south and east. Most precipitation will fall over southern Harney and Malheur Counties, and the higher terrain south of the Snake River Valley in Idaho. Except for the mountains, skies are expected to clear Sunday afternoon, with breezy northwest winds and slightly cooler temperatures.
CLL-UTS may be be closer to the warm front and more concentrated area of storms.
937 PM MST Sat Apr 1 2017 A cool low pressure system will linger over eastern Arizona leading to a slight chance of sprinkles or light showers from Phoenix eastward this evening.
A low pressure system will result in isolated to scattered showers over portions of Santa Cruz and Cochise counties through the evening hours before diminishing.
High pressure will briefly settle into the area through tonight.
802 PM EDT Sat Apr 1 2017 A dry cold front will surge south through NC this evening and overnight. Pacific high pressure will shift southeast from the Midwest across NC on Sunday and then offshore Sunday night.
918 PM EDT Sat Apr 1 2017 A mid to upper level ridge will build in over the region tonight and skies will continue to be mostly clear.
1138 PM CDT Sat Apr 1 2017 Numerous showers with a few embedded storms will gradually shift eastward and northeastward across the area tonight with the highest probabilities arriving across mainly Southeast KS toward morning.
621 PM CDT Sat Apr 1 2017 Satellite indicates a near vertical low pressure system over western NM with a strong push of warm air advection and moisture convergence over central Kansas. This added lift, moisture convergence, isentropic lift in the low levels, and low level jet will culminate in a broad area of rain showers and isolated elevated thunderstorms tonight into Sunday morning.
927 PM EDT Sat Apr 1 2017 High pressure will build overhead overnight into Sunday.
High pres ridge axis extending just north of the Bahamas to Cape Canaveral will maintain a light to gentle E/SE breeze overnight.
802 PM EDT Sat Apr 1 2017 Deepening low pressure southeast of Long Island will pass east through tonight.
1011 PM EDT Sat Apr 1 2017 Building high pressure should result in dry weather through Sunday. After a quick burnoff of any morning fog, Sunday morning and early afternoon will feature mostly-sunny sky and light wind as high pressure crosses the region. These clouds will be insufficient to prevent ample heating into the low 60s for highs. A closed upper low will eject from the Southern Plains and move slowly newd to begin the week.
1030 PM EDT Sat Apr 1 2017 High pressure extending into the region will ensure fair weather through Sunday.
Overnight lows will be in the 50s in the northeast to central, to the lower 60s in the southwest. The movement of the surface and upper low pressure systems will be the key to the amount and severity of severe storms over AR.
803 PM EDT Sat Apr 1 2017 High pressure will provide fair weather tonight into Sunday with lows in the 30s tonight and highs near 60 degrees tomorrow.
On Fri, cold front pushes south through the area, with low level flow gradually becoming E-NE on the plains behind the boundary. a cold front will have pushed south into New Mexico by Friday evening with northeasterly low level flow advecting cooler air into the region.
236 AM MDT FRI SEP 9 2016 Low stratus and fog this morning is holding temperatures down thus far; however slow and gradual clearing should allow enough heating to bring the highs into the lower to middle 80s. Moisture content is very high in the lower levels as tropical moisture streams up along a theta-e boundary draped from southwest to northeast across the CWA. A cold front approaches the region tonight and will push through the CWA on Friday. High temperatures will range from the lower 70s in the northwestern portions of the CWA and the lower 80s in the south and southeastern portions of the CWA.
Upper level ridging sits in between these features over west central Texas.
(Issued 239 AM CDT FRI SEP 9 2016) Clear skies and temps in the upper 60s to lower 70s as of 2AM with the upper ridge over the southeast states starting to break down. The ridge holds on just enough today to keep mostly sunny skies and light winds in the forecast. Today looks to be the last "hot" day with highs once again topping out in the lower to middle 90s.
323 AM EDT FRI SEP 9 2016 The strong ridge aloft over the MS/OH valleys will keep us much warmer than normal through the end of the week. Muggy air will stick around until a strong cold front passes this weekend.
As we lost our insolation and winds started to de-couple, the peak gusts really dropped off as the showers approached the Highway 83 corridor.
or some 10-15 degrees warmer than this afternoon's temps. Strong synoptic cold front will approach the far northwestern portion of the CWA toward late dusk on Friday and will help provide the focus for the next round of showers and thunderstorms.
Winds will begin backing after 00Z as a cold front approaches. /issued 253 PM CDT THU SEP 8 2016/ A broad upper trough has developed across the northern half of the CONUS, while high pressure remains across the Gulf Coast, with a SW-NE oriented shear axis still in place over the area.
311 AM CDT FRI SEP 9 2016 Broad upper level trough now dropping into the northern plains. Closer to home, the warm front bisects Iowa west to east and spanns northern Illinois from Moline to Chicago. Areas of fog have developed in moist airmass south of the warm front. Fog: Patches of dense fog have developed south of the warm front. The main forcing is associated with the cold front, which is progged to cross Iowa this afternoon/tonight, reaching the Mississippi River around midnight. There is no doubt that a progressive Canadian origin high pressure will move over the region.
Water vapor imagery is showing a big time fall-season trough upstream with mucho energy. QG forcing is deep and strong Friday, with cold frontal passage in the afternoon and evening. Bulk shear in the linear hodograph varies in the lowest 4 km among the models, with great shear above that.
Despite the low RH and gusty winds, critical fire weather concerns will be marginal in terms of duration and coverage, so no fire weather highlites will be issued. Temperatures will cool as a result by some 5 to 10 degrees across northeast Utah and northwest Colorado as this trough drags a surface front through the area.
A weak upper disturbance is currently dropping down the backside of an upper trough that is departing eastward across the Northern Rockies. This disturbance may trigger an isolated shower across the Island Park region this morning, otherwise dry conditions are expected today as high pressure takes up residence across the area. The combination of clear skies and light winds will allow a rapid temperature drop tonight, with patchy frost expected across the Snake Plain along with freezing temperatures for many Highland valley locations across the Eastern Highlands, including the Teton Valley and the Bear Lake Valley.
1234 AM CDT FRI SEP 9 2016 CAMS solutions are showing, and radar is beginning to reflect, the potential for storm development this evening ahead of an approaching upper trough. Upper level southwest flow will be in place tonight through Friday morning ahead of an approaching trough.
Meanwhile northern CWA has dried out and getting some breaks in the low clouds. Moderate to heavy rains will be possible again on Friday and especially Friday night as cold front moves into central IL with precipitable water values as high as 2-2. Humid again with dewpoints in the low to mid 70s. The forecast period will start out wet as a vigorous short wave and associated cold front push into the area.