Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1238 PM EST WED JAN 13 2016 BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS COLD AND DRY TODAY. CHANCE FOR SNOW WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE AREA. BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN DRY AND COLD CONDITIONS FOR TODAY. LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW AND RIDGING WILL HELP TREND TEMPERATURES TO NEAR AND ABOVE NORMAL VALUES FOR THE PERIOD.
A DRY NWLY FLOW ALOFT REGIME ALONG WITH SFC RIDGING INFLUENCES SHOULD RESULT IN VFR/SKC CONDITIONS THRU 14/18Z WITH SLY TO SWLY SFC WINDS 5-10KTS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE MIDDLE TENNESSEE WEATHER FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 24 HRS. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED JUST TO OUR NW WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE MID STATE LATER TODAY AND ALLOW FOR WEAK RETURN FLOW.
254 PM EST WED JAN 13 2016 WEAK WARM FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH AXIS TONIGHT.
OUR NEXT WEATHER MAKER IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW OVER NRN MEXICO AND WILL GRADUALLY EJECT TO THE NE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW.
A STRONG COLD FRONT HAS MOVED INLAND AND WINDS ARE SHIFTING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST AND GRADUALLY DECREASING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE WATERS LATE THIS MORNING, THEN MOVE INLAND TONIGHT. A STRONG WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH THE WATERS EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
A QUICK RETURN OF GULF MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGH WILL LEAD TO A ROUND OF MVFR STRATUS DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES AT LATE MORNING RANGE FROM NEAR FREEZING ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER TO MIDDLE 40S SOUTH. STRONGER WAA WILL BE SEEN TOMORROW AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE MIDWEST.
142 PM MST WED JAN 13 2016 WESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AHEAD OF A TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS THURSDAY. LACK OF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A PROBLEM AS THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THURSDAY. WINDS WILL BE BREEZY BEHIND THE EXITING TROUGH THURSDAY. MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL COOL TO THE LOWER 20S.
A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH KGUY AND KDHT AND BRING STRONGER NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND IT. THE NEXT COLD FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH ON THURSDAY, BUT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH AFTER PEAK HEATING SO TEMPERATURES WILL STILL HAVE A SHOT AT WARMING INTO THE 50S WITH THE SOUTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE POSSIBLY GETTING INTO THE 60S.
but with very little moisture in the low to mid levels. An even warmer day is expected on Thursday. /ISSUED 251 AM CST WED JAN 13 2016/ A cooler airmass have overspread parts of northeast OK and northwest AR tonight. with a dissipating cold front analyzed across southern OK into southern AR. Increasing low-level warm air advection will result in even warmer conditions for Thursday. Improving moisture will also bring a chance of showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms by Thursday night as a cold front pushes through.
AND CONVECTION IS FORECAST TO BE SCATTERED ALONG AND EAST OF THE HIGHWAY 281/INTERSTATE 69C CORRIDOR. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MUCH MORE ISOLATED IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THE EJECTION OF THE LOW AND THE PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH. WHICH APPEAR GENERALLY COOLER THAN CURRENT MET AND MAV GUIDANCE. FORECAST TO FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S.
230 PM EST WED JAN 13 2016 WEAK WARM FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH AXIS TONIGHT.
THE WARM FRONT HAS PUSHED TO THE NORTH AND EAST CREATING A LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION WITH JUST SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION STILL OCCURRING OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS. NEXT THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOLLOWED BY THE TROUGH PASSAGE OVERNIGHT. WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY FOR PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AND THEN TRANSITION TO WESTERLY WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. SURFACE WINDS FROM THE SOUTH WILL VEER TO SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN BECOME WEST BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THE SYSTEM'S WARM FRONT HAS LARGELY LIFTED OUT OF THE AREA WITH LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS. LOCATIONS ABOVE 4000 FEET AND AT THE LOWEST ELEVATIONS IN THE BASIN REMAIN COOL. THE SYSTEM'S COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN TONIGHT.
300 PM EST WED JAN 13 2016 CURRENTLY - HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES IS MAINTAINING A COOL AND RELATIVELY DRY NORTHEAST FLOW. GOOD TROUGHING ALOFT WITH AN INCREASINGLY ORGANIZED AND ACCELERATING LOWER THROUGH MID LEVEL FLOW WILL PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THE WARMER FLOW WILL BRING TEMPERATURES BACK ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
1137 AM CST WED JAN 13 2016 HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES JUST EAST OF ARKANSAS TODAY. WITH A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE STATE TODAY. SOUTH WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY WARMER TONIGHT. WITH MOST AREAS REMAINING ABOVE FREEZING.
325 PM CST WED JAN 13 2016 Wednesday afternoon has found the entire region under sunny skies in the wake of the dry passage of a short wave trough this morning. The flow pattern aloft was from the west northwest while flow in the lower levels was generally from the west to southwest. Overnight lows should be in the 27 to 33range, with warmer temperatures on windier hilltops. There is a good chance for much of the area to sneak into the middle to upper 50s given continued warm advection and southwest flow, although a cold front will make its way into north central KS around noon and across the entire area by late evening. Moisture in the mid levels is severely lacking on soundings with brief saturation in the low layers to develop light flurries during this time.
A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL WARM FRONT MAY YIELD SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OVER NORTHWESTERN ND THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. NOTE THAT WE ARE STILL CARRYING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING OVER WESTERN AND PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL ND /INCLUDING THE DICKINSON TO BISMARCK CORRIDOR/.
400 PM CST WED JAN 13 2016 WELL IT TURNED OUT SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN OUR MORNING UPDATE ALLOWED FOR THIS AFTERNOON. THAT SOUTHWEST WIND IS GENERALLY WARMER THAN GUIDANCE AND WE ONLY ROSE TO MEET IT. HIGHS WILL NOT BE MUCH WARMER TOMORROW AS SKIES BEGIN TO FILL WITH CLOUDS ONCE AGAIN. AN UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS IS ON APPROACH.
VFR FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH SURFACE RIDGING PRESENT.
An upper level trough with a surface front is moving through the area today.
QUIET MORNING ACROSS THE MID STATE AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE MIDDLE TENNESSEE WEATHER FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 24 HRS. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED JUST TO OUR NW WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE MID STATE LATER TODAY AND ALLOW FOR WEAK RETURN FLOW.
ANOTHER WARM DAY IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS THURSDAY NIGHT.
230 PM EST WED JAN 13 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF THURSDAY NIGHT WILL SPREAD RAIN BACK INTO THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT THURSDAY.
AND EXPECT FAIRLY WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF STORMS AS WE GO THRU THE DAY AS A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA. SOME MODELS STILL SHOW BOTH A PREFRONTAL TROF AS WELL AS THE ACTUAL FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION WHICH COULD RESULT IN MULTIPLE BANDS OF CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA. THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA TONIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
EXPECT SOME INCREASE IN CIG HEIGHT THIS MORNING AS SHOWERS REDEVELOP AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. RAIN WILL END AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST BEGINNING LATE THIS AFTERNOON. 14 NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND ENTERS THE FORECAST AREA.
938 AM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN SOME AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHEAST TOWARD NORTHEAST OHIO THROUGH TONIGHT. AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION.
1042 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015 MID-MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS REVEALED THAT AN ILL-DEFINED COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED NEAR AND ALONG A LINE FROM CANTON TO FORT WORTH TO BRECKENRIDGE. 12 UTC RAOBS ACROSS OK/KS REVEALED THAT THIS COOLER AIRMASS WAS QUITE SHALLOW /AS IS TYPICAL FOR SUMMERTIME COLD FRONTS/. WITH NO REAL MECHANISM TO SCOUR OUT ANY OF THE LOWER TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE ---FELT THAT IT WAS NECESSARY TO KEEP CLOUD COVER A BIT LONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES.
TRANQUIL WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND AN UPPER LEVEL LONG WAVE TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. TOWARDS THE SURFACE, A DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED ABOVE US TODAY LEADING TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST OF THE AREA THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT WITH LEE TROUGHING REDEVELOPING ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN STATES AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES FORCE A WEAK COLD FRONT INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS TODAY.
COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY IN THE WAKE OF YESTERDAYS COOL FRONT.
BUT THESE SHOULD LIFT TO VFR LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE STATE.
AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT BASIN WITH NNW FLOW ALOFT OVER THE AREA. AS FOR HIGHS LOOKS LIKE READINGS SHOULD BE 4 TO 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN FRIDAYS LEVELS OVER NERN CO.
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING. AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE MOUNTAINS FROM THE NORTHWEST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SOME THINING HAS BEGUN DURING THE RECENT HOURS AND TEMPERATURES HAVE REACHES THE LOWER TO MID 80S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT AND SANDHILLS. OTHER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN PIEDMONT THIS AFTERNOON AND BECOME MORE NUMEROUS AS THE UNSEASONABLY STRONG DEEP UPPER TROUGH AND A PRE FRONTAL TROUGH APPROACH. THE TORNADO RISK IS SMALL BUT EXISTS GENERALLY CLOSE TO THE VA BORDER IN CLOSER VICINITY TO THE ENHANCED LOW LEVEL SHEAR NEAR A NORTHWARD ADVANCING WARM FRONT. -BLAES THE STRONG COLD FRONT SHOULD BE OFFSHORE BEGINNING SUNDAY.
721 AM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015 UNSEASONABLY DEEP LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TODAY. THE TIMING OF THAT FEATURE WITH WARM FRONT POSITIONING AND PROLONGED MOISTURE CONVERGENCE NORTH AND EAST OF THE MID LEVEL LOW WILL DETERMINE WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL OCCURS. AREAS NORTH AND EAST OF PITTSBURGH ARE PROJECTED FOR THE HIGHER TOTALS. WHILE BOUNDARY LAYER VALUES ESCALATE IN VICINITY OF THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT. SHOWERS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY.
COLD FRONT IS KNOCKING ON THE DOOR OF THE NORTHWEST ZONES CURRENTLY. MAIN LOBE OF THE TROUGH AXIS SHOULD PASS THROUGH THE CWA OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SO LOOKING FOR MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ON SUNDAY WITH CONTINUED COOLER TEMPERATURES.
AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT IN CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN AND NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA. TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE COLD FRONT WILL DETERMINE THE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL. THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST THE GREATEST RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER RESIDES IN THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. NORTHWEST WINDS 15KT TO 25KT WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON WEST AND CENTRAL.
830 AM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015 SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR TODAY AND TONIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA. CONVERGENCE NEAR AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT. THE HIGH- RESOLUTION MODELS DISPLAY THE GREATER THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SHEAR AND INSTABILITY ENHANCED BY UPPER TROUGHING MOVING INTO THE AREA INDICATES STORM ORGANIZATION. IT WILL NOT BE AS HOT TODAY COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS BECAUSE OF CLOUDINESS AND DEVELOPING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING. THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS SUPPORTS HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MOST OF THE REGION LATE TONIGHT. LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES TONIGHT BECAUSE OF CLOUDINESS AND MIXING ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE AREA SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY COOLER.
THERE WILL STILL BE A CHANCE OF MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.
619 AM CDT Sat Jun 27 2015 High pressure will dominate the region today and keep things generally dry. However, there could be a few stray showers or storms during the afternoon as a subtle vort max swings through on the back side of a Great Lakes upper trough.
750 AM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING THEN MOVE EAST OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH ON SUNDAY AND TRACK THROUGH THE GULF OF MAINE SUNDAY NIGHT. H5 RIDGE WL BE HOLDING TIGHT SAT EVNG AND FLATTENING AS LEAD S/WV HEADS NORTH INTO MAINE BTWN 06Z AND 12Z. ONE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK THROUGH NEW YORK STATE AS A SECONDARY LOW ON SUNDAY FORMS IN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND TRACKS INTO THE GULF OF MAINE.
THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT IS ROUGHLY DRAPED FROM CLARKSVILLE TO MEMPHIS AND IS GRADUALLY CONTINUING TO TRACK EASTWARD TOWARD THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. DO THINK THAT WE MAY SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER BY THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON BEFORE THE COLD FRONT MOVES IN. OR CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 80S. CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 82 63 87 62 / 90 10 0 10 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 81 60 82 60 / 90 20 0 10 OAK RIDGE, TN 80 59 84 58 / 90 10 0 10 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 81 58 80 54 / 90 40 10 10.
631 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015 LOW PRESSURE AREA AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST AWAY FROM THE AREA. DAYTIME HIGHS SHOULD BE WARMER THAN YESTERDAY GIVEN THERE WILL BE LOTS MORE SUNSHINE. COOLER TEMPS FOR TONIGHT.
INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE ARE VERY LIMITED IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. COLD FRONT MOVING INTO/ACROSS WKY AT THIS WRITING. WHILE THIS WILL ULTIMATELY LEAD TO COOLER/DRIER AIR COMING IN ITS WAKE. COOLER HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S WITH THIS COOLER HUMIDITY WILL MAKE FOR A QUITE PLEASANT NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. MEAN ENERGY IN THE GREAT LAKES LOW SPILLS AROUND THE BASE OF THE LONG WAVE TROF AND SHOULD LEAD TO A MORE SCATTERED MID TO HIGH CHANCE POP FOR US AS ITS ENERGY PINWHEELS ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO RIVER VALLEY. A COLD FRONT IS MAKING PASSAGE ACROSS THE TERMINALS AT THIS WRITING.
COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE SOUTHEAST U. WILL KEEP RIDGE AXIS TOWARD SOUTHERN TIP OF FL. A MORE DELAYED ONSET OF THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE FROM THE OFFSHORE FLOW AND SUFFICIENT SFC HEATING SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO CLIMB A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER NEAR THE COAST WITH A FEW MID 90S POSSIBLE BEFORE THE ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS. (PREVIOUS DISCUSSION) OFFSHORE (W/SW) FLOW WILL INCREASE AS LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SLIPS SOUTH OF THE WATERS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MORNING WATER VAPOR AND H5 ANALYSIS PLACE THE AXIS OF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS WESTERN UTAH. WEAK MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION CONTINUES THIS MORNING WITH FOCUS ALONG AND WEST OF THE RIDGE AXIS. HAVE ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORM WORDING IN FORECAST THOUGH A HUNDREDTH OR SO OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN.
1107 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING PLEASANT WEATHER THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING SHOWERS AND STORM SUNDAY. HOWEVER -SHRA THREAT DWINDLING AS DRIER LOW TO MID LEVEL AIR CIRCULATING AROUND LOW PRESSURE MOVING TOWARD CENTRAL GTLAKES SPREADING ACRS SE WI.
100 PM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015 RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE AREA WILL GRADUALLY PUSH EASTWARD TODAY.
DEEP LAYER HIGH PRESSURE IS IN CONTROL OF THE ENVIRONMENT ABOVE THE KEYS AREA THIS MORNING. THE DEEP LAYER RIDGE PARKED OVER SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE KEYS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO CONTINUES TO PERSIST.
ACTIVITY NEAR THE CWA BORDER IS DEVELOPING ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL TROF AND EXPECT THIS IS WHERE MOST OF TODAY'S CONVECTION WILL BE TRIGGERED. ALSO BUMPED UP AFTN HIGHS A DEGREE OR TWO ACRS NRN ZONES AS LOCATIONS OUTSIDE OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY COULD WARM INTO THE LOWER 90S. SINCE RICH THETA AIR AND CONTINUING AVAILABLE MOISTURE, WOULD NOT RULE OUT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT. OTHERWISE THE UPPER AIR PATTERN IS CHARACTERIZED BY AN AMPLIFYING PATTERN WITH BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN U. AND DIGGING TROUGH IN THE EASTERN U. TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING ARE WARM IN THE MID 70S TO THE LOWER 80S. THE DEVELOPING PATTERN LOOKS LIKE LAST SUMMER WITH RIDGE IN THE WEST AND TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN U.
613 AM CDT Sat Jun 27 2015 The latest infrared satellite imagery shows a slow westward expansion of patchy stratus / fog along and south of the Ozark Plateau this morning behind the exiting cold front which has now made its way into central Arkansas and Tennessee. So far wind speeds have been high enough to keep the lower levels mixed and limit fog development, but wind speeds have shown a slowing trend, so will probably need to add fog to the grids/forecast for the early morning.
954 AM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015 HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY MOVE OFF TO THE EAST TODAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE REGION TONIGHT AND MOVE THROUGH THE GULF OF MAINE ON SUNDAY BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN TO THE REGION.
/ISSUED 443 AM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015/ MODELS CONTINUE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN BRINGING THE COLD FRONT INTO THE CWA TODAY. THE BEST RISK OF SEVERE STORMS WILL BE TODAY WITH THE HIGHEST CAPES OCCURRING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE CWA. 17 INITIAL EXTENDED PERIODS CONTINUE WITH A SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRY AIR MASS OVER THE AREA BEHIND THE SHORT TERM COLD FRONT.
SINCE RICH THETA AIR AND CONTINUING AVAILABLE MOISTURE, WOULD NOT RULE OUT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT. OTHERWISE THE UPPER AIR PATTERN IS CHARACTERIZED BY AN AMPLIFYING PATTERN WITH BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN U. AND DIGGING TROUGH IN THE EASTERN U. TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING ARE WARM IN THE MID 70S TO THE LOWER 80S. THE DEVELOPING PATTERN LOOKS LIKE LAST SUMMER WITH RIDGE IN THE WEST AND TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN U.
SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA IN A MOIST AND SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT IS BACK NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI/ARKANSAS BORDER. CLOUD COVER DOES NOT LOOK LIKE IT IS GOING TO CLEAR OUT VERY FAST WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPS COOLER. AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
CLOUD COVER OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING KEPT LOW TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN EXPECTED. MAY KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN FORECAST. AT THIS TIME WILL NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST AS LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS CAN HELP TO BRING IN THE HOT TEMPERATURES EVEN WITH THE CLOUD COVER. UPPER RIDGE IS FIRMLY IN CONTROL OF THE FLOW ALOFT. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED OVER FAR EAST-CENTRAL NV THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SHIFT IS IN RESPONSE TO A SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT WILL BE MOVING NORTH INTO NRN CA SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AND THE HIGH TEMPS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE TIMING OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AND THE RESULTANT CLOUD COVER.
1124 AM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015 SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR TODAY AND TONIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA. CONVERGENCE NEAR AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT. THE HIGH- RESOLUTION MODELS DISPLAY THE GREATER THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SHEAR AND INSTABILITY ENHANCED BY UPPER TROUGHING MOVING INTO THE AREA INDICATES STORM ORGANIZATION. IT WILL NOT BE AS HOT COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS BECAUSE OF CLOUDINESS AND DEVELOPING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING. THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER 90S. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MOST OF THE REGION LATE TONIGHT. LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES TONIGHT BECAUSE OF CLOUDINESS AND MIXING ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE AREA SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY COOLER.
WHILE A WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT WAS ALONG THE HWY 380 CORRIDOR. /ISSUED 311 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015/ THE UPPER PATTERN ACROSS THE COUNTRY HAS BECOME ONE OF A STRONG UPPER HIGH OVER THE WESTERN STATES AND A FAIRLY ACTIVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS.
PLENTY OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION AROUND THE RIDGE CENTERED TO OUR EAST AND THE TROUGH OFF THE COAST. MORNING SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW A TAD BIT OF SYNOPTIC COOLING (1-2 DEG C) AT 850 AND 700 MBS AS THE RIDGE ADJUSTS EAST A BIT, SO ANY COOLING INLAND AND AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL MAINLY BE FROM INCREASED CLOUD COVER. AT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS, THE MARINE LAYER HAS INCREASED IN DEPTH TO ABOVE 2000 FT AND ONSHORE GRADIENTS ARE INCREASING, SO COOLING OF 10 DEGREES OR MORE WILL OCCUR TODAY IN THE DELTA BREEZE INFLUENCED AREAS.
However the mid-level flow remains cyclonically curved, with at least one more impulse to round the base of the trof. Northwest winds behind the front will usher in cooler and slightly drier air into the region today.
KEPT CHANCES FOR THE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AS NSSL WRF STILL SHOWS DEVELOPMENT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DOMINATES THE PATTERN THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD BRING DRY CONDITIONS TO THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA. WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF THE HIGH TERRAIN. PWATS REMAIN RELATIVELY HIGH UNDER THE RIDGE. A WEAK AND RELATIVELY DRY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED IN MOST LOCATIONS ONCE AGAIN TODAY.
AS THE UPPER LOW THAT BROUGHT THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA YESTERDAY IS WELL SOUTHEAST OF OUR AREA. PLEASANT WEATHER EXPECTED WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND HIGH TEMPERATURES A LITTLE WARMER. THIS TROUGH SHOULD BE PUSHING INTO WEST CENTRAL MN BY EARLY EVENING.
NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS 850MB TEMPS STAY ON THE WARM SIDE.
EXPECT THE NOSE OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY CURRENTLY IMPACTING THE FL PANHANDLE WILL CONTINUE TO EDGE EASTWARD AND LIFTING NORTHWARD WHILE EXPANDING IN COVERAGE OVER SE GA DUE TO IDURNAL INSTABILITY AND INCREASED PASSING LOBES OF MID LEVEL PVA FROM THE WNW IN ADVANCE OF THE DIGGING MEAN LAYER TROUGH. TEMPS WILL RISE INTO THE LOWER 90S INLAND TO NEAR 90 COAST WITH NOT MUCH OF A SEA BREEZE EXPECTED DUE TO BREEZY WSW FLOW 15-20 MPH. HEAT INDICES WILL RISE INTO THE 100-105 DEG RANGE WITH MOIST DEW PTS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. SSW WINDS 10-15 KTS WITH SEAS 2-4 FT WILL PREVAIL WITH SPEEDS UP TO 15-20 KTS TONIGHT AS THE GRADIENT INCREASES AHEAD OF A SAGGING TROUGH OVER GA.
OUT AHEAD OF IT AIRMASS WILL DESTABILIZE AS TEMPS WARM INTO THE LOW-MID 80S AND DEW PTS CLIMB A BIT HIGHER INTO LOWER-MID 60S. THOUGH WITH COOLER AIR ALOFT OVER NORTH CENTRAL MN WILL KEEP ISOLD TSTM MENTION SUN AFTN.
1037 AM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING THEN MOVE EAST OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH ON SUNDAY AND TRACK THROUGH THE GULF OF MAINE SUNDAY NIGHT. H5 RIDGE WL BE HOLDING TIGHT SAT EVNG AND FLATTENING AS LEAD S/WV HEADS NORTH INTO MAINE BTWN 06Z AND 12Z. ONE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK THROUGH NEW YORK STATE AS A SECONDARY LOW ON SUNDAY FORMS IN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND TRACKS INTO THE GULF OF MAINE.
614 AM CDT THU MAR 24 2016 UPPER CLOSED LOW OVER NORTHERN MISSOURI SOUTHERN IOWA AS SEEN IN IR SATELLITE IMAGE. UPPER CLOSED LOW MOVING OUT OF GULF OF ALASKA INTO JUNEAU AND THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. RIDGING ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD AHEAD OF SYSTEM MOVING INTO EASTERN CONUS. UPPER LOW MOVING QUICKLY EAST THIS MORNING. UNDER THE CLOUDS TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S AND IN THE CLEARING SECTOR IN THE LOW TO MID 20S. DROPPED TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 20S TONIGHT WITH COOLER MID 20S OVER SNOW FIELD.
QUICK UPDATE TO GO AHEAD AND ISSUE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF OUR EASTERN MOUNTAINS. CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 70 45 65 41 / 80 80 10 10 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 72 45 62 40 / 80 80 10 10 OAK RIDGE, TN 70 45 62 39 / 80 80 10 10 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 72 45 62 36 / 40 80 10 10 TN.
STRONG COLD FRONT ROLLS IN TODAY, SPREADING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID-STATE.
A much cooler day is in store behind the cold front that moved thru last night. Winds will relax this evening as high pressure settles over the region. with the trailing cold front not far behind.