Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
839 PM EDT WED JUL 15 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL KEEP WEATHER QUIET OVERNIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE PROGRESSING THROUGH MEAN UPPER RIDGING HAS ALLOWED INCREASED HIGH CLOUDINESS TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA. AMPLIFICATION OF UPR AIR PATTERN OCRG TO THE WEST IN SHORT TERM PERIOD AS CLOSED LOW FORMING OVER ALBERTA WITH ASSOCIATED TROF DIGGING INTO THE WRN CONUS. THIS SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN RATHER STRONG LOW LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION AND SUBSEQUENT MODERATE MAINLY ELEVATED DESTABILIZATION AS UVM ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHRTWV/WARM FRONT OVERSPREAD THE AREA. WK CDFNT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL STALL OVER SRN MI BY FRI MORNING AS IT BECOMES PARALLEL TO ZONAL FLOW ALOFT NORTH OF STRONG SRN CONUS UPR RIDGE.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH THE HIGHER COVERAGE OVER EASTERN ARIZONA.
RECENT SURFACE OBS NOW SUGGEST THAT A WEAK COLD FRONT -- WHICH HAS BEEN PUSHING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE DAY -- IS NOW SOUTH OF THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. THE SHORT TERM MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT INVOLVING PROGRESSIVELY BUILDING A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EAST-NORTHEAST INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION INTO THIS WEEKEND. AFTER A SLIGHTLY COOLER THURSDAY ACROSS THE AREA.
CONCUR WITH THE DETERMINISTIC GFS THAT THE UPPER RIDGE WL MEANDER OVER THE REGION DRG THE PERIOD.
VISIBLE SATELLITE IS SHOWING PLENTY OF CUMULUS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG THE CASCADES, SISKIYOUS, EAST SIDE, AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE EXCEPTION BEING SOUTHWESTERN CURRY COUNTY WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE AROUND 15 TO 20 DEGREES WARMER DUE TO OFFSHORE FLOW AND THE RESULTANT CHETCO EFFECT. THE REST OF THE CWA WILL CONTINUE TO DRY OUT AND WARM UP AS THE RIDGE OVER THE PACIFIC NUDGES INTO THE AREA.
MODEL FORECAST LOW LEVEL WINDS AND PRESSURES ALSO REFLECT PERSISTENCE FOR THE NEXT 24-30 HOURS AS THE CENTER OF THE LARGE UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVERHEAD/NEARBY OVER CENTRAL/EAST TX. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER AND JUST TO THE EAST OF TEXAS THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
STEEP LAPSE RATES AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE TROUGH BOUNDARY. EARLY IN THE PERIOD THE MID-UPR LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL REMAIN SUPPRESSED ACROSS THE SRN MS RIVER VALLEY.
1055 PM EDT WED JUL 15 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION OVERNIGHT. THE HIGH WILL THEN SHIFT EAST TO NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES NEW YORK. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER LAKE HURON LATE THIS EVENING WILL SHIFT EAST OVERNIGHT CENTERING OVER NEW YORK FOR THURSDAY. THE CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S. HIGH PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE ON THURSDAY WILL PROVIDE NEARLY FULL SUNSHINE WITH JUST A FEW DIURNAL CUMULUS DURING THE AFTERNOON INLAND FROM THE LAKES. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL KEEP THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO COOLER AS WELL.
1007 PM EDT WED JUL 15 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
19Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO KENTUCKY FROM THE NORTH MAKING FOR A COOLER AND DRIER DAY ACROSS THE AREA. THE HIGH HAS HELPED TO LIFT THE LOW CIGS FROM THE MORNING. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST THEY ALL DEPICT THE DEPARTURE OF THE MAIN TROUGH TO THE EAST THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING WHILE RIDGING SLOWLY BUILDS NORTHEAST.
942 PM EDT WED JUL 15 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY.
CIRCULATION AROUND UPPER RIDGE CENTERED IN EASTERN TEXAS WILL DRIVE SOME DEBRIS CIRRUS THIS WAY NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. OTHER THAN SOME LATE NIGHT FOG UPPER RIDGE WILL KEEP GOOD FLYING WEATHER ACROSS THE MID STATE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
709 PM EDT WED JUL 15 2015 A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL STALL NEAR THE AREA TONIGHT.
758 PM EDT WED JUL 15 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT.
TSTMS ERUPTED IN SE ND ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND IN AREA WITH ML CAPES IN THE 3000-4000 J/KG RANGE AS SFC TEMPS HIT 90F AND DEW PTS IN THE LOW 70S.
1009 PM EDT WED JUL 15 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHEAST LATE EVENING SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS LOW PRESSURE (1008 MILLIBARS) OVER SOUTH CAROLINA. DEEP-LAYERED RIDGING REMAINS CENTERED OVER EASTERN TEXAS. WITH AMPLIFIED TROUGHING POSITIONED ALONG THE U. ELEVATED SOUTHWEST FLOW SOUTH OF THE TROUGH WILL ONCE AGAIN FIRE CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
939 PM EDT WED JUL 15 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT.
736 PM EDT WED JUL 15 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY.
1030 PM EDT WED JUL 15 2015 HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVERNIGHT. WITH THE COOLER AIR AND CLEARING.
THE SHORT TERM PROGS ALSO INDICATE THE UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER E TX/WRN LA ACTUALLY EXPANDING FARTHER E THURSDAY. /ISSUED 717 PM CDT WED JUL 15 2015/ THE HOT AND DRY UPPER RIDGE OVER TEXAS IS KEEPING STATION. A LOW AND TROUGH OVER GREAT LAKES DIPS INTO THE SE U.
SHORT TERM: (THROUGH LATE TONIGHT) UPPER RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE OVERNIGHT. FRONTAL BNDRY THAT PASSED THRU THE FA YESTERDAY/LAST EVNG WILL BEGIN LIFTING BACK NORTH TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LIFTING NE OUT OF THE PLAINS.
WARMER OVERNIGHT TEMPS AND LIGHT WINDS SHOULD PREVENT FOG AT CHA.
731 PM EDT WED JUL 15 2015 HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVERNIGHT. WITH THE COOLER AIR AND CLEARING.
830 PM MST WED JUL 15 2015 ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH THE HIGHER COVERAGE OVER EASTERN ARIZONA.
WV IMAGERY AND 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE CENTER SITUATED ACROSS EAST TEXAS. NEAR THE SURFACE, A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE NORTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL KANSAS. FOR TONIGHT, A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTH THIS EVENING INTO THE HAYS AREA.
1038 PM EDT WED JUL 15 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT.
1045 PM CDT WED JUL 15 2015 THE HOT AND DRY UPPER RIDGE OVER TEXAS IS KEEPING STATION. THE SHORT TERM PROGS ALSO INDICATE THE UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER E TX/WRN LA ACTUALLY EXPANDING FARTHER E THURSDAY.
THE UPPER LEVEL TROF IS STILL ACROSS WESTERN WYOMING AND STRETCHES INTO FAR EASTERN UTAH THIS EVENING AND IS AIDING TO KEEP CONVECTION GOING THIS EVENING. HANGING ON IN THE NORTHEAST CORNER WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE A LITTLE COOLER. ONE AREA THAT COULD GET A BIT MORE IS THE CORNER DUE TO THE HIGHER DEW POINTS. CURRENT FORECAST OF HIGHS A FEW DEGREES WARMER LOOKS GOOD.
RIDGING ALONG THE WEST COAST TRANSITIONS TO AN UNSEASONABLY COLD AND DEEP LOW OVER THE FRONT RANGE. AS WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SE CONTROLS THE SITUATION. THE HIGHER AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE COULD LEAD TO MORE PATCHY FOG FORMATION AROUND DAYBREAK SUN. OUTPUT FROM SOME OF THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS ARE HINTING AT ISOLD CONVECTION FORMING IN THE LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON OVER NE AL. MAINLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. 500 MB RIDGE BUILDS OVER COLORADO MONDAY.
311 AM CDT SUN MAY 10 2015 WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY SITUATED OVER NORTHEAST CO/NW KS. THE LOW IS CENTERED NEAR KHLC WITH THE DRYLINE/COLD FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS WESTERN KS INTO THE TX PANHANDLE. BY MON AFTERNOON THE UPPER LOW WILL BE APPROACHING THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AS THE LAST PIECE OF UPPER ENERGY ROTATES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. BOTH MODELS DO AGREE ON KEEPING THE PATTERN ACTIVE BY SLOWLY BRINGING IN ANOTHER UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT BASIN BY SAT MORNING.
STRONG UPPER LOW WE HAVE BEEN TRACKING THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS NOW DRIFTING NORTHEAST THROUGH EASTERN CO EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST INTO NORTH DAKOTA BY MONDAY MORNING. BUT UPPER FLOW SHIFTS BACK AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST AGAIN FOR LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS NEXT TROUGH DIGS ALONG THE WEST COAST.
A COLD FRONT IS ON TRACK TO MOVE ASHORE THIS MORNING AND CROSSES THE CASCADES INTO THE KLAMATH BASIN BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES COOLER WEST OF THE CASCADES. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTH WITH THE CLOSED LOW COMING INLAND NEAR REEDSPORT MONDAY AFTERNOON.
High pressure ridge will slowly shift east into the Great Basin through late Sunday with dry weather and above normal temperatures continuing across the area.
/ISSUED 216 PM EDT SAT MAY 9 2015/ A LARGE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN US BRINGING A LOT OF MOISTURE FROM THE PACIFIC OCEAN OVER MEXICO AND THE MID WEST. OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS PENETRATING INTO THE SE US IN RESPONSE TO THE EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE WESTERN TROUGH. HOWEVER, THE LOW MOISTURE IN THE LOW AND MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE IS EXPECTED TO INHIBIT WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. BY MONDAY, ANA IS PICKED UP BY THE TROUGH CURRENTLY LOCATED IN THE WEST AS IT MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND CANADA.
AND A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL US. EASTERN KENTUCKY REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH ANA MAKING VERY SLOW ADVANCES TRAPPED BENEATH THIS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING.
340 AM CDT SUN MAY 10 2015 LONGWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO STRETCH ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN CONUS THIS MORNING. WITH RIDGING EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WITH THE EXCEPTION OF TS ANA OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. IMPULSES ROTATING AROUND THE TROUGH FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TOWARD THE MIDWEST HAVE ENHANCED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY GENERALLY WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. CLOSED LOW WITHIN THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHWARD TODAY FROM COLORADO TO THE DAKOTAS. AND THE RIDGE AXIS WILL AMPLIFY SLIGHTLY IN RESPONSE. THE LONGWAVE TROUGH BEGINS TO EJECT NORTHEASTWARD AS TS ANA MOVES UP THE EAST COAST. THE TRAILING END OF A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA MONDAY EVENING AND SLOWLY SINK SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA.
536 AM EDT SUN MAY 10 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTH FROM SOUTHERN CANADA TODAY.
EXCEPTIONALLY ACTIVE/DYNAMIC PATTERN CONTINUES OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES TODAY AS LARGE UPPER LOW SPINS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. A COMPLEX AND HIGHLY BAROCLINIC SURFACE PATTERN WAS ANALYZED AT 06Z WITH A CLOSED 1004MB LOW NEAR THE KANSAS-COLORADO BORDER AND A TIGHT THERMAL AND PRESSURE GRADIENT NORTH OF THE LOW. WARM FRONT EXTENDED FROM THE LOW EASTWARD WITH LOW TO MID 60S DEW POINTS OVER KANSAS. AND AN INVERTED TROF EXTENDED NORTHEAST INTO THE SIOUX CITY AREA. AIRMASS NORTH OF THE LOW WAS COLD ENOUGH FOR WIDESPREAD SNOW IN THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS THIS MORNING. THE FORECAST PATTERN IN THE 18-21Z TIME FRAME INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING INGREDIENTS TO SUPPORT SUPERCELLS OVER NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND WEST CENTRAL IOWA: UPPER LOW OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA WITH 500 MB TEMPERATURES AROUND -19C.
THE LOW LAYER AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR ARE MOSTLY PARALLEL TO THE EXPECTED BAND OF CONVECTION.
THE LOCAL AREA REMAINS SANDWICHED BETWEEN THE TWO PRESSURE SYSTEMS WITH A NARROW MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS POSITIONED FROM THE SOUTHWEST GULF TO ACROSS WESTERN GEORGIA.
AN U/L RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA THROUGH MONDAY.
The biggest impact from this activity would be to stabilize the atmosphere ahead of an approaching cold front which would significantly reduce any threat for severe storms later this afternoon and evening. Quick west-to-east clearing will occur overnight as the cold front pushes through.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN CANADA WILL CONTINUE TO GIVE THE NORTHLAND DRY NORTH TO NE FLOW THROUGH TONIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN EASTERN COLORADO WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY ON TRACK TOWARDS MINNESOTA. IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME FOR THE LOW LEVELS DUE TO THE THE RELATIVELY DRY FLOW FROM CANADA. TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REACH THE LOWER 40S NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. THE LOW WILL BRING A PROLONGED PERIODS OF RAIN.
421 AM CDT Sun May 10 2015 Base of upper trough will move over area today but have little effect on wx for the region. After that brief ridging aloft moves over the area for the first of the week.
/ISSUED 421 AM CDT Sun May 10 2015/ Base of upper trough will move over area today but have little effect on wx for the region. After that brief ridging aloft moves over the area for the first of the week.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A RAPID WARMING TREND WITH TEMPERATURES BACK TO WELL ABOVE AVERAGE EARLY IN THE NEW WEEK.
The highest PoPs during the day today are for our east and southeast counties, mainly for the convective activity this morning. With an upper trough axis still to our west, could have additional scattered shower/thunderstorm development through the day. The upper trough to our west will lift northeast across our area tonight, with rain chances dropping off from the west. A cold front will push south into the Big Country late tonight.
CONVECTION SHOULD REDEVELOP ALONG A COLD FRONT THAT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST.
BOTH MODELS SUGGEST STRONG/SEVERE CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP FURTHER WEST ALONG AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. DESPITE SLOW PASSAGE OF A WARM FRONT. AS SURFACE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND INTERACTS WITH THE VERY MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE. WITH CONSENSUS TAKING THE COLD FRONT INTO INDIANA DURING THE AFTERNOON. A COOLER/DRIER AIRMASS WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
306 AM EDT SUN MAY 10 2015 AN ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHEAST CONUS THROUGH MONDAY. EXCEPT FOR A MOIST MARITIME FLOW BRINGING PERIODS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TO PORTIONS OF THE LOWER TO MIDDLE SUSQUEHANNA RIVER VALLEY THROUGH SUNDAY.
THE FIRST ONE IS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND THE OTHER IS TROPICAL STORM ANA JUST OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. AND IN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL GEORGIA INTO THE LOW 90S SUNDAY.
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO TREK NORTHWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THEN INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TOMORROW. CLOUDS DECREASE IN COVERAGE FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. LOWS OVERNIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S ACROSS FAR WESTERN KANSAS TO UPPER 50S ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. HIGHS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TOMORROW ARE ANTICIPATED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS TO LOWER 70S ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
325 AM EDT SUN MAY 10 2015 ABOVE AVERAGE WARMTH WILL CONTINUE UNTIL PASSAGE OF A MONDAY NIGHT COLD FRONT. THIS PERIOD OF DRYING SEEMS LIKELY TO LAST INTO MONDAY AS RIDGING REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE REGION. DEEP UPPER TROUGHING SLOWLY PROGRESSES TOWARD THE REGION ON MONDAY.
UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE AREA TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WITH CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW UPPER LOW APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LATER IN THE DAY.
UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE ON ITS NORTHEAST TRACK. WITH TROUGH AXIS PUSHING INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS THROUGH THE PERIOD. MONDAY WILL BE SOMEWHAT COOLER.
156 AM EDT SUN MAY 10 2015 AN ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHEAST CONUS THROUGH MONDAY. EXCEPT FOR A MOIST MARITIME FLOW BRINGING PERIODS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TO PORTIONS OF THE LOWER TO MIDDLE SUSQUEHANNA RIVER VALLEY THROUGH SUNDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT. COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL MOVE IN FOR MIDWEEK. SO ONLY SHAVED A FEW DEGREES OFF PERSISTENCE WHICH ENDS UP SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN MOS. A SHORT WAVE AND PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH STORMS OCCURRING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND A FEW SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
324 AM MDT SUN MAY 10 2015 AS UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER NE CO LIFTS INTO THE NRN PLAINS SUNDAY. SO ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOWFALL LIKELY FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY BRINGING A RESPITE FROM THE WET WEATHER.
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WAS PRODUCING SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS. MEANWHILE ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH LOCATED OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA WAS PRODUCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA. THE ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE WEST OF HIGHWAY 52 IN SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA WHERE THE PROXIMITY OF THE CLOSED LOW MAY PROVIDE AN ISOLATED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE NORTHWARD ADVANCE OF THE WARM FRONT WILL SLOW GREATLY AND WILL LIKELY NOT EVEN MAKE IT NORTHWARD INTO OUR AREA.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE TONIGHT AND MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY.
Severe storm threat will remain on the lower end for hail and straight line winds, but not zero. Better instability and more favorable vertical wind shear for rotating storms will remain to our west, in closer proximity to the main upper low pressure system over the four corners region. With better instability and upper level dynamics ahead of the upper low which finally ejects to the northeast into the central Plains, severe threat will be higher on Sunday afternoon/evening. As the upper low continues to shift northward into the upper Midwest, a cold front will finally push east of the region Monday morning and bring a much drier and slightly cooler air mass into the MO Ozarks/SE KS.
334 AM CDT SUN MAY 10 2015 THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS SITUATED UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. IN BETWEEN TWO UPPER LEVEL LOWS. AN UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO WEAKEN AND MOVE EAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS. HOWEVER GIVEN THE SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE. THE UPPER LOW OVER THE PLAINS WILL BEGIN TO PUSH EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. AND OPEN INTO A LONGWAVE TROUGH. THE AXIS OF THE UPPER RIDGE WILL FINALLY MOVE EAST BY MONDAY MORNING. AS A COLD FRONT AND THE DEEP TROUGH CONTINUE THEIR EASTWARD PROGRESSION.
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS ALL OF OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS BY EARLY MONDAY.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST WILL BUILD OVER CENTRAL MONTANA TODAY.
AS WEAK UPPER RIDGING ALOFT OCCURS AND DRY EAST FLOW FEEDS INTO THE REGION. PCPN CHANCES WILL RAMP UP TONIGHT AS A S/W TROF MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. AND A H8 WARM FRONT AND SFC OCCLUDED FRONT IMPACT THE REGION.
AN ORGANIZED WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE AND 40KT LLJ IS EXPECTED WITH THE UPPER WAVE AND WILL HELP FOCUS THETAE ADVECTION AND RESULTANT SHOWERS AND TSTORMS FROM THE MIDDLE TO LATE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ELEVATED CAPE OF ONLY A FEW HUNDRED J/KG IS EXPECTED ALONG WITH A FRONTAL INVERSION IN THE LOW LEVELS THUS NO SVR WX IS ANTICIPATED. SOME FOG WILL DEVELOP OUTSIDE OF THE RAIN AREAS TNT AS THE WARM FRONT AND HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH.
LATEST RUC/18Z NAM/HRRR SUGGESTING NEXT SPOKE OF ENERGY TO EJECT FROM PARENT UPPER LOW INTO SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE AREA AROUND 23Z LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MIDNIGHT. AFTER MIDNIGHT CENTER OF WOUND UP UPPER LOW MOVES NORTHEAST TOWARD YUMA COUNTY WITH WRAPAROUND PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTHWEST 1/2 OF THE AREA. DURING THE DAY SUNDAY UPPER LOW LIFTS INTO NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT RANGE FROM THE LOW 30S FOR FAR EASTERN COLORADO TO AROUND 50 IN NORTON AND HILL CITY. IF A GREATER AREA OF YUMA COUNTY GETS INTO THE LOW 30S A FROST HEADLINE WOULD BE NEEDED.
352 AM EDT SUN MAY 10 2015 * PULSE STRONG-SEVERE TSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON WESTERN INTERIOR * MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ATLANTIC BEACHES TODAY TRANQUIL WEATHER PREVAILS ACROSS SOUTH FL THIS MORNING WITH RIDGE AXIS STRETCHED ACROSS THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION. THE RIDGE WILL LIFT NORTH INTO CENTRAL FL THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE HIGH INSTABILITY, BELIEVE THAT ONE OR TWO PULSE SEVERE TSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED LOCALES SO WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS IN OUR PRODUCTS. THE PATTERN THROUGHOUT THE WEEK WILL CONTINUE WITH A RIDGE TO OUR NORTH, SETTING UP AN EAST-SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW PATTERN.
THEN THE REMNANTS WILL ACCELERATE TO THE NE MONDAY AS IT GETS ABSORBED BY A LARGE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH. WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW TODAY WILL GIVE WAY TO WEAK SW FLOW MONDAY AS A WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD IN ACROSS THE CNTL FL PENINSULA. AFTERNOON TEMPS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 90S INLAND. LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION.
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING ACROSS NE/SD/ND THIS MORNING OUT AHEAD OF A POTENT TROUGH LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE 850MB-300MB THICKNESS RIDGE AND 1000MB-850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT ARE INDICATIVE OF A NORTH-NORTHWEST MOVEMENT TO THE PRECIP AND THAT IS INDEED WHAT WE ARE SEEING THIS MORNING. WITH THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND CONVERGENCE POINTED TOWARD THE HIGH PLAINS AND AWAY FROM MN/WI. EVENTUALLY THE SURFACE CYCLONE AND WARM FRONT WILL SURGE INTO MN AND HEAD FOR NORTHERN WI. WITH THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION SHIELD TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LOW. H850 TEMPS WILL BE BELOW FREEZING.
AFTER A BREAK MORE THUNDER WITH APPROACHING COLD FRONT LATE IN TAF PERIOD AFTER 00Z.
THE 10 PM EDT REGIONAL SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED WEAK TROUGH ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE FL PENINSULA, BENDING NW TO MARIANNA. THIS TROUGH SPLIT A RIDGE TO OUR NORTH FROM A 1018 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO. SIMILAR TO 24 HOURS AGO, VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR DATA SHOWED A RIDGE FROM OFF THE TX COAST TO NEW ENGLAND, AND SEVERAL MCS'S ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
SNOW WAS BEING REPORTED ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ONGOING SNOW OVER MUCH OF THE HIGHEST MT PEAKS WILL CONTINUE. WHILE RAIN WILL SWITCH OVER THE SNOW OVER TELLER AND NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTIES AS THE UPPER LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE STATE TO THE NORTHEAST. AND 20S ACROSS THE HIGH VALLEYS. THE UPPER LOW MOVES NORTH INTO WESTERN NE AND SD THROUGH THE DAY. PCPN BECOMES MORE DIURNAL AND TIED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN. MOORE TRANSIENT UPPER RIDGE MOVES THROUGH THE ROCKIES MONDAY WHICH SHOULD SUPPRESS ALL BUT SOME WEAK MOUNTAIN CONVECTION. AS RESIDUAL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
THE OVERALL PATTERN THIS MOTHERS DAY WILL ASSUME A SLOWER PACE DOWNSTREAM OF A BROAD AND WEAKENING TROUGH POISED TO OUR WEST. AS THE WEAK UPPER TROUGH /CHARACTERIZED BY SLIM HEIGHT FALLS/ ARRIVES LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY RETURN SUNDAY NIGHT THEN SHIFT EAST MONDAY WITH A MILD SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING.
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL REMAIN UNDER MORE OF THE INFLUENCE OF DRY MID- UPPER LEVEL WEST GULF HIGH RIDGING NORTHEAST. RIDGING ACROSS THE AREA BEGINS TO WEAKEN AS EAST COLORADO LOW ADVANCES NORTH TO NORTHEAST TODAY AND MONDAY. MODERATE SOUTHERLIES CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY OVER THE NEAR COASTAL WATERS BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING THROUGH THE NORTHERN GULF AND LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTH TEXAS.
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE SOUTHWARD THOUGH FORECAST AREA TODAY.
SHORT TERM: (Through Late This Afternoon) Warm front just north of the I-70 corridor will continue advancing slowly northward this morning and should be well north of the forecast area into Iowa and northern Illinois by 17-18Z. Short range guidance suggests there will be another wave of rain and thunderstorms this afternoon well ahead of the cold front, probably triggered by another MCV generated by the convection now occurring over central Texas.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S THROUGH DAYBREAK. A STRONG UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA BRINGING ANOTHER HOT AND SOMEWHAT HUMID DAY. IMPULSES LIFTING FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY WILL BE LARGELY DEFLECTED BY THE RIDGE. AND THE LOW LEVEL FOCUS LOOKS UNIMPRESSIVE.
WITH A SLOW NE EXIT AS PHASING NEARLY STALLS THE UPPER LOW.
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT. THEN A BETTER CHANCE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE STATE. THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER EASTERN CO.
POTENT UPPER LOW WILL STAY WELL WEST OF THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION TRACKING FROM NE COLORADO TO CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. SINCE SHEAR AND INSTABILITY ARE GOING TO BE ON THE LOW-END OF MODERATE DO NOT THINK THIS WILL BE A WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK.
THE COLD FRONT IN THE PLAINS WILL MOVE INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.
548 AM EDT SUN MAY 10 2015 AN ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHEAST CONUS THROUGH MONDAY.
A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO ENTER NW OK LATE TOMORROW MORNING. ARE EXPECTED TO CUT OFF THE FLOW OF MOISTURE WITHIN THE LOW-LEVEL JET THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. INCLUDING OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET REFORMS.