Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
/issued 342 AM CDT SAT SEP 10 2016/ SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday): Water vapor imagery shows an upper level low over the Northwest Gulf of Mexico and the middle to upper Texas Coast. A mid level height center over the Southeast United States is supporting high pressure over the north Gulf Coast. A short wave trough is digging into the southern plains with a cold front and high pressure upstream. The plains cold front will move into Central Texas today, cutting off lower pressure over North Central Mexico. That and high pressure over the North Gulf Coast will allow southeast winds to shift to east this afternoon. a sea breeze, also developing over the lower valley by afternoon.
A cold front will be moving through late in the period.
Increasing high clouds can be expected Sunday as the pac nw upper trough shifts east, supporting a cold front into the region late. The warmest conds will be Sunday ahead of the cold front as widespread westerly downslope flow will warm temps into the 80s and 90s most areas.
Upper air analysis this morning shows a vigorous mid-level trof pivoting eastward across the central and northern High Plains. The front makes steady southeast progress today into the Lower MS River Delta by this afternoon. The forecast area sees a narrow north to south mid-level ridge axis over the southeast between two upper level lows, one having moved into east TX and the other centered north of the Bahamas. For today as the front approaches the Lower MS River Delta, deep layer Gulf moisture is pulled northward, with precipitable water values improving to between 1. Even so, the presence of the high level ridge remaining intact enough, acts to provide larger scale sinking motion.
As we get into the mid-afternoon hours, an axis of instability is progged to push into our northwest counties just ahead of the cold front. So, by late this afternoon, we can expect a pre-frontal trough to help spark some scattered thunderstorm segments in the form of a very broken line. After that, expect a cold front to move across western areas during the late afternoon and evening (mainly between 21Z and 02Z), and over eastern areas between 03z and 08z.
1217 PM EDT SAT SEP 10 2016 Update/Marine A cold front will track eastward through the Great Lakes Region today.
High pressure will remain north of the region for the next several days, keeping an easterly wind flow in place across the waters.
and Sunday 07Z surface analysis indicates low pressure over east-central Wisconsin, just northeast of Oshkosh, accompanied by N-S trof/cold front. The surface trof should clear the area by 12Z with west to northwest flow expected in its wake. Behind the cold front, expect gusty NW winds and cool temperatures. High pressure moves in overnight and Sunday.
Another very warm day is expected today before a transition to a cooler weather pattern on Sunday. This evening and into tonight expect a dry cold front to move into the area from the northwest. Late tonight into Sunday, an upper trough will shift southward into the area. Due to the persistent thermal trough pattern, strong north winds and steep to very steep seas will continue through the weekend.
717 AM EDT SAT SEP 10 2016 Aviation A cold front will track eastward through the Great Lakes Region today.
Most of the action (showers and thunderstorms) was occurring along a cold front that extended from Lower Michigan, through Missouri, and back to Oklahoma and North TX. For today, we will have a continuation of the same very warm conditions through early afternoon, then the cold front will move in from the northwest with a good chance for thunderstorms. Most of the storms will occur in clusters or bands just ahead of a pre frontal trough, with the front following closely. Following the front, cooler and much drier will move in. Sunday looks like a lovely day with sunshine, low humidity, and highs in the lower to mid 80s.
the true cold front is starting to move into northeast OK. with much drier and cooler low-level air poised to overspread the area for the rest of the weekend. with Sunday morning lows in the 50s with some upper 40s possible in the usual cooler locations. Sunday will be a bit warmer. but with low afternoon humidity as surface ridging conditions hang on. A weak cold front looks to push into the region by mid-week.
An upper level low pressure trof will be moving over the West Coast by late afternoon and upper level winds are strengthening ahead of this system.
945 AM EDT SAT SEP 10 2016 High pressure will extend from the Northeast across SE GA Today. Highs are expected to be in the lower 90s Today, with readings remaining in the 80s along the coast.
(Issued 308 AM CDT SAT SEP 10 2016) At 3 am under mostly clr skies, temps arnd the cwa were ranging from the mid 60s in NE AL to the low 70s over NW AL. The next weather maker for the TN valley is an upper trof and associated cdfnt now over the central plains/midwest.
the true cold front lags just W of this outflow bndry over E TX and SW AR. The water vapor imagery indicates that the upper trough over the Cntrl Plains has overtaken the weak troughing aloft /the remnents of Newton/ over Cntrl OK/N TX. with this trough absorbing the closed low along the middle TX Coast later today. the leftovers elevated -SHRA along the primary trough axis continues to diminish over N TX/extreme SE OK. with the lowest pops along/NW of I-30. mainly to raise max temps slightly over SE OK/SW AR where the cooler air will be a bit slower to spill over these areas despite the elevated cloud cover in place. The placement of the front by early evening will dictate the placement of the low pops tonight over portions of N LA/lower E TX.
A weak area of low pressure off the coast will move inland over central California later this weekend and bring a chance of afternoon thunderstorms over the high Sierra.
The tail end of a southeast-moving cold front will brush western Washington late tonight.
High pressure in control with a dry and stable airmass in place. they show a trough digging into the Pacific Northwest Sunday. with zonal flow over colorado and a lee trough in eastern Colorado.
As of writing, the cold front is pushing through the northern Hill Country progressing nicely south following a timing blend of the NAM/ECMWF with the help of a N-S oriented jet streak.
A low pressure system centered southwest of the Dry Tortugas remains readily apparent on early morning satellite loops. This low level swirl lacks deep convection near its center. A sharp upper level ridge reaches north into the central Gulf Coast, meanwhile, to its east, an upper level trough has carved out lower heights deep into the Bahamas. The confluent flow in the lower troposphere should continue through the afternoon. The strongest winds and largest seas will be west of Key West, south of the Dry Tortugas, closer to the weak low pressure system moving west away from the Keys.
Monitoring a cold front dropping southeast across Missouri this morning. Temps range from the lower 70s east to mid and upper 70s west. Later today additional development will occur just ahead of the cold front dropping southeast from Missouri. The best shear will remain north of the area closer to the main upper trough but a few strong storms are possible with gusty winds mainly across West Tennessee. Temps will be a few degrees cooler mainly in the 80s with 90 degree temps limited to parts of Northeast Mississippi. The threat for showers and thunderstorms will linger into the early evening across North Mississippi then high pressure will quickly build into the region.
1126 AM CDT SAT SEP 10 2016 Latest surface analysis indicates the cold front extends from sern MO across far sern OK into nern TX. Pressure gradient associated with building high pressure supports 20-25 mph northerly gusts this afternoon.
/issued 425 AM EDT SAT SEP 10 2016/ 08Z water vapor and H4 RAP analysis shows the Florida Peninsula in between a ridge of upper level high pressure over the central Gulf of Mexico. and an upper low spinning to the east of the region. This amplification will bring a cooler airmass to the Great Lakes/High plains this weekend. and eventually our first cold front of the season will arrive. In the lower levels. high pressure resides just to the north of the region providing a synoptic easterly flow across the FL peninsula. and the low itself will be moving steadily away from our area through the weekend.
620 AM CDT SAT SEP 10 2016 /12Z TAFS/ Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are affecting the KABI area as a cold front/outflow boundary moves quickly south. /issued 427 AM CDT SAT SEP 10 2016/ (Today and Tonight) Showers and thunderstorms were affecting areas along and north of Interstate 20 as of 330AM this morning, as a cold front/outflow boundary was quickly moving south through the Big Country. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will still be possible behind the front due to lifting of warm, humid air over the top of the cooler air mass. Temperatures both today and tonight will be much cooler than the past few days with highs ranging from the mid 70s along and north of the I-20 corridor to the mid 80s along and south of I-10.
While not entirely convinced that this line of storms is the cold front per se, we could see some slightly lower dewpoints in the wake of the storms. /ISSUED / 351 AM CDT Sat Sep 10 2016 Shower and thunderstorm complex along and ahead of a cold front is moving into North Texas early this morning. Ahead of the front, showers and thunderstorms are possible near the coast and coastal area counties early this morning with a mid/upper level low parked across the area. With the low remaining nearly stationary, will need to keep rain chances in the forecast for tonight and Sunday, but anticipate coverage to be lower than today. Look for mainly daytime showers and thunderstorms for much of the upcoming week with the best chances probably ending up near the coast and the lower chances probably ending up north.
405 AM EST Tue Dec 20 2016 Quiet weather is expected over the next 24 hours as high pressure controls regional conditions.
The prevailing upper tropospheric flow will be mostly zonal, as a series of short wave troughs translate rapidly eastward. However, with the polar jet stream remaining well to our north, these troughs will have little if any impact on our weather through this period. The surface synoptic pattern will feature a high pressure ridge across the Southeast.
In addition, coastal troughing will enhance potential for showers this period. Conditions will begin to improve somewhat overnight as the trough dissipates and high pressure builds to the North. With the low stratus, temperatures are expected to only recover about 5 to 10 degrees Today, with lows Tonight running about 10 to 15 degrees below daytime highs.
A cold ridge of high pressure is stretched from the lower Great Lakes into North Texas this afternoon, and this ridge will continue to move into and across the Northwest Gulf Coast and Lower Mississippi Valley through tonight and Tuesday. A cold and very dry air mass is settling into the local area with the majority of the region falling to or below freezing this past morning. Freezing temperatures are expected north of a Cypremort Point to Patterson to Stephensville line. The ridge will shift east of the area by Tuesday Night which will begin the return flow late Tuesday Night into Wednesday.
So despite a cold front moving through Wednesday night, once temperatures moderate tomorrow, temperatures should remain near to a bit above normal through the end of the week. With the placement of the low moving through central Nebraska into Iowa and Minnesota, we'll be firmly in the warm sector. While the ultimate track of the low will likely change, both the GFS and the ECMWF are currently in good agreement, lifting the low north of the area with only some minor difference in timing. Additionally, the passage of a negatively tilted trough, a wide open Gulf of Mexico leading to anomalously high moisture, suggest a potential for thunderstorms. Given the strong dynamics with the negatively tilted trough, strong low level jet and favorable upper jet dynamics, possible storms would exist in a highly sheared environment.
1237 AM EST Tue Dec 20 2016 High pressure and a dry airmass will build across the region through mid week.
1104 PM PST Mon Dec 19 2016 A robust winter storm will come through the region tonight and will bring snow to much of the Inland Northwest, with local areas of freezing rain.
Clear skies prevailed early this morning across southern Indiana and central Kentucky as a surface analysis revealed an elongated area of high pressure stretched from New England through the Ohio Valley and back toward Texas. For today, expect plenty of sunshine as the high pressure slips southward toward Alabama and Georgia.
351 AM CST Tue Dec 20 2016 A cut-off upper low well off to the west of the Baja Peninsula is sending a slug of moisture northward into the desert southwest. At the surface, a weak cold front located from northeast New Mexico into western Kansas will slide through the forecast area, swinging winds around from west to north. The area warmed more quickly yesterday than guidance indicated so we will favor the warmer guidance today - which will give us afternoon highs in the upper 50s to low 60s.
Therefore, included them into the High Wind Warning through Wednesday morning. Expanded the High Wind Warning to include northern portions of Carbon County, Converse County (mainly for western portions), central Laramie County, and the remainder of Platte County for tonight through Tuesday. Some concern Tuesday with warmer temperatures. Our next dry cold front still on track for Wednesday.
454 AM EST Tue Dec 20 2016 A historically strong deep layer mean ridge remains anchored across the Gulf basin, Florida Peninsula, and subtropical Atlantic.
This arctic airmass also kept temps on the cold side as daytime highs remained in the low 40s/30s area wide. The aforementioned area of high pressure over Maine has lead to NE flow down the eastern seaboard resulting in an expansive area of low stratus from the Carolinas through Alabama where a shallow layer of moisture exists below the inversion.
1249 AM EST Tue Dec 20 2016 High pressure today through Wednesday.
140 AM EST Tue Dec 20 2016 Surface analysis shows elongated area of high pressure stretches from Downeast Maine to Southern Texas. 23z sfc analysis shows high pressure building more solidly into eastern Kentucky this evening. This should finally clear out the low clouds that have plagued the area for the past 36 hours. This means a small to moderate ridge to valley temperature split will develop with chilly low temperatures down in the teens. High pressure will build in and settle over the region tonight. Sunny skies will return on Wednesday, but after such a cold start, the best we will do for temperatures is the low to mid 40s. Another cold night is expected Tuesday night as high pressure stays overhead.
Some fog can not be ruled out near MEI/HBG as this low level moisture advects in but not enough to mention in the TAFs. This arctic airmass also kept temps on the cold side as daytime highs remained in the low 40s/30s area wide. The aforementioned area of high pressure over Maine has lead to NE flow down the eastern seaboard resulting in an expansive area of low stratus from the Carolinas through Alabama where a shallow layer of moisture exists below the inversion.
330 AM EST Tue Dec 20 2016 07Z surface analysis showing high pressure is elongated from Downeast Maine southwest to Southern Texas. This is also keeping temperatures up in the lower 20s versus the teens that were expected. Overall this is expected to taper off and we will be left with mostly sunny skies today with temperatures climbing into the lower to mid 40s. The coldest afternoon highs will likely be in the Bluegrass where cooler start should reside. Tonight the high pressure remains in control and models have a closed isobar moving across portions of the region overnight. Given this would think we would stand a chance for another substantial ridge/valley split night as valleys are able to decouple.
low temperatures tonight should be a little warmer compared to the previous couple of nights.
401 AM EST Tue Dec 20 2016 High pressure will control the region's weather through Wednesday.
130 AM EST Tue Dec 20 2016 High pressure will cross the region overnight. Weak low pressure tracking through Ontario will slide to our north on Wednesday.
329 AM EST Tue Dec 20 2016 High pressure through Wednesday.
High pressure will remain anchored over the southeastern U. In fact, after more than 48 hours with temperatures below freezing, highs today are forecast to warm into the upper 30s to lower 40s. Highs on Wednesday should be well into the 40s after morning lows in the lower 20s. This will result in the passage of a weak cold front through the forecast area Wednesday night.
For Tuesday, a mixture of rain/snow/freezing rain will be possible for area terminals. By Tuesday afternoon, a vigorous cold front will push through and will bring strong gusty winds and snow showers. This weather system will deliver moderate to heavy snow to the high terrain and a mix of snow, patchy freezing rain, and rain to the valleys of west central Idaho and western Montana. The Camas Prairie to Orofino areas will be impacted first after midnight with periods of snow and local freezing rain. However, the very cold ground will probably support intermittent freezing rain, especially the Bitterroot Valley northward across Missoula and to about Plains and the Mission Valley early Tuesday. A cold front will deliver a colder air mass back over the northern Rockies Tuesday afternoon and evening.
Westerly winds will be light and variable for a short period of time before shifting to the south in advance of the next lee trough and incoming cold front. That combined with a rather early cold frontal passage will make for a cooler day.
1138 PM EST Mon Dec 19 2016 High pressure over Indiana will move across Ohio overnight to the east coast on Tuesday.
23z sfc analysis shows high pressure building more solidly into eastern Kentucky this evening. This should finally clear out the low clouds that have plagued the area for the past 36 hours. This means a small to moderate ridge to valley temperature split will develop with chilly low temperatures down in the teens. High pressure will build in and settle over the region tonight. Sunny skies will return on Wednesday, but after such a cold start, the best we will do for temperatures is the low to mid 40s. Another cold night is expected Tuesday night as high pressure stays overhead.
306 AM EST Tue Dec 20 2016 High pressure and a dry airmass will build across the region through mid week.
A cold front will move into northern Utah late Tuesday, then move south into central Utah Tuesday night and Wednesday. The disconnect between the dynamic feature as it races off to the east and the low-level cold advection will come quickly early Wednesday morning. Occasional ceilings between 8 and 10 kft will exist through the day Tuesday, then lower as a cold front approaches the terminal Tuesday evening.
500 AM EST Tue Dec 20 2016 High pressure will exit to the east today while a warm front moves north of the region. Weak low pressure will slide to our north on Wednesday.
413 AM EST Tue Dec 20 2016 Though quite cold overnight, high pressure will give us moderating temperatures and dry weather for the next couple of days.
Confidence still not overly the highest in terms of sensible weather farther south toward our local area, though by far the greatest risk for precipitation appears to be toward Tuesday night/Wednesday. At the moment, we continue to come out of the deep freeze of the past 36 hours, with strengthening low level southwesterly flow across much of the central CONUS helping transport warmer air in our direction. In addition, am a little concerned by Wednesday evening that there could be a brief window of some freezing drizzle or light freezing rain with some forcing from the upper wave and a lack of overall ice in the saturated column.
Lows tonight will be warmer than last night with temperatures falling into the single digits above zero this evening then steady or slowly rising later tonight. As arctic high pressure over the middle Mississippi Valley continues southeast and settles over the southeast gulf states, increasing southerly winds will usher in the start of a warming trend temperatures into the lower 30s by Wednesday afternoon and possibly well above freezing towards the holiday weekend. Intense arctic ridge will continue ewd this period. Would expect partial decoupling to occur se half closer to ridge axis and also nw overtop deepest snowpack.
251 AM EST Tue Dec 20 2016 The combination of some locations reaching the freezing mark with lingering low level moisture capped by a stratus deck in portions of north GA is posing a threat of patchy freezing fog. particularly in the valleys of the higher elevations. Otherwise any lingering drizzle in parts of Central GA should diminish by sunrise and expecting a dry fcst through Wednesday as we stay under zonal flow aloft and the influence of a weak ridge of high pressure. Temps should moderate back to near normal today with highs in the low to mid 50s for most areas.
Stronger near surface winds perpendicular to the Buffalo Ridge this afternoon has led to local enhancement of wind speeds. With the trough exiting to the east by midday Tuesday, winds resume a southwesterly direction and will continue tapping into milder temperatures. Still expect highs right around freezing, and as warm as the upper 30s near the Missouri River. Warming could mix any light snow with a little rain, freezing rain, or sleet.
This will push a cold front southward across our region during the day on Wednesday with only minor cooling expected with temperatures still in the 50s or 60s.
407 AM EST Tue Dec 20 2016 Though quite cold overnight, high pressure will give us moderating temperatures and dry weather for the next couple of days.
1238 AM EST Tue Dec 20 2016 MVFR ceilings will continue through the late morning, before dry air will filter into the boundary layer, dissipating the low stratus by midday/early afternoon.
Increasing southerly flow on the back side of a departing area of high pressure will help provide these milder conditions. High pressure ridge has shifted southeastward into the Ohio River Valley, allowing a southerly return flow to commence across the KILX CWA this afternoon. Temperatures have responded nicely, with 20z/2pm readings well into the teens and in some cases the lower 20s. Afternoon highs will reach the middle 30s across most of the area, but will remain in the lower 30s along/west of the Illinois River where a slightly more substantial snow cover exists. Upper level heights to rise over the next few days as the cold 500 mb trof edges away from the Midwest.
328 AM EST Tue Dec 20 2016 High pressure is in control across the region today, promoting tranquil conditions across the eastern Tennessee Valley early this morning. However, a strong temperature inversion still exists, which has trapped moisture in the lower 1500-2000 feet of the boundary layer. These clouds have helped to keep low temperatures from cratering, and have actually kept most locations above freezing. The clear and dry conditions overnight will allow for good radiational cooling, with lows running 10-15 degrees cooler in the 20s areawide.
Quiet and dry conditions can be expected tonight and Tuesday as a fairly weak flow aloft and drier air in the lower/mid levels persist across the Western High Plains during the period. The light southwesterly flow will continue Tuesday helping to draw slightly warmer air into the area pushing H85 temperatures well up into the single digits(C). However, expect highs to be hampered a bit by lingering snowpack so expect temperatures generally in the lower to mid 40s(F). Fairly seasonal temperatures are expected Wednesday even though a cold front is projected to push through western Kansas early in the day. Look for highs reaching only up into the 40s(F) before cooler air begins to filter southward into western Kansas behind the front.