Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
628 PM EST Tue Nov 28 2017 A weak and moisture starved cold front will drop through the area this evening with nothing more than a brief increase in cloud cover.
710 PM EST Tue Nov 28 2017 High pressure remains near the coast through tonight.
534 PM CST Tue Nov 28 2017 At 1 PM, a cold front extended from the Straights of Mackinac to Kansas City Missouri. Temperatures ahead of this front were in the lower and mid-60s. On Wednesday night, a short wave trough will move quickly southeast through the region. By the time enough saturation occurs along and ahead of the cold front to produce precipitation, this front will be already exiting the area.
A remnant of this morning's cold front is the wind we are feeling this afternoon due to the strong pressure gradient. Clouds are building due to isentropic ascent toward the Colorado/Kansas border this afternoon, and will track east with the low. Have left Comanche, Barber and Pratt counties with the highest POPs late this afternoon as they have the best chance for any accumulating rain. With clear skies behind the low, temperatures tonight will drop below freezing for most of Southwest Kansas. Tomorrow, as high pressure moves southeast, WAA advection returns by the end of the day, keeping highs closer to normal for this time of year, in the 50s.
637 PM EST Tue Nov 28 2017 A cold front located near Lake Michigan late this afternoon will move across the region tonight.
532 PM CST Tue Nov 28 2017 As of early this afternoon, a cold front was cutting through the forecast area - passing through the KC Metro just before 2pm. The back edge of these clouds have cleared far NW MO, including STJ, allowing for temperatures to warm even behind the cold front. The cold front will make slow progress southward during the remainder of the afternoon before becoming quasi-stationary just to the south of the forecast area this evening into the overnight hours. Low clouds will hold across the area on Wednesday, with cooler high temperatures in 50s.
556 PM CST Tue Nov 28 2017 A cold front is slowly edging southeastward toward the central IL forecast area with cloud cover along and ahead of the front spreading into central IL as far east as about Taylorville to Champaign, and temperatures are peaking out or cooling slightly as a result. Dewpoints have reached the lower 40s under the cloud band which will be probably just a bit low for sprinkles which have been in the forecast from around I-72 northward, so have trimmed back wording to slight chance sprinkles and also trimmed back coverage as well.
1014 PM EST Tue Nov 28 2017 High pressure will prevail through Wednesday.
556 PM CST Tue Nov 28 2017 /00Z TAFS/ A cold front is advancing quickly southeast across the Concho Valley this evening, with gusty north winds immediately following its passage. /issued 248 PM CST Tue Nov 28 2017/ (Tonight and Wednesday) Cold front, just north of Midland and Aspermont to Benjamin line at 2 PM, will move rapidly southeast through West Central Texas this evening. Cold front should be along a Sterling City. Lows will be mainly in the lower 40s, with some mid and upper 30s in portions of the western Big Country and Concho Valley. It will be cooler Wednesday.
702 PM EST Tue Nov 28 2017 High pressure centered offshore will extend west over the area tonight into Wednesday.
Temperatures will run some 5-10 degrees above normal tonight through Wednesday with lows tonight in the lower to mid 60s north, and mid to upper 60s central and south with daytime highs on Wednesday climbing into the lower to mid 80s.
Upper level trough over Ontario into northern MN will continue moving east tonight. Winds will switch to the south later tonight and gust out of the south/southwest for Wed with the approach of the next trough. Upper trough over the Pacific Northwest will move into the Northern Plains Wed night. A little cooler air will move into the region for Thu.
1043 PM EST Tue Nov 28 2017 An upper-level composite analysis this evening indicates that the base of the long-wave trough over the eastern Gulf of Mexico gradually is weakening, with the embedded cyclonic vortices beginning to shear out in west-southwesterly flow aloft. A review of Key West Doppler radar data over the last several hours reveal mostly isolated showers and thunderstorms developing mainly south of the Keys archipelago over warmer water. The combination of a weakening trough departing to the west and a temporarily weakened surface anticyclone centered over the southeastern United States has led to a decreasing trend in winds. A weak trough over the southern Gulf of Mexico will move westward and dissipate overnight. A high pressure system will persist from the Middle Atlantic States to the Gulf of Mexico through Wednesday night.
905 PM CST Tue Nov 28 2017 Clear sky night with high pressure over the cwa means good radiational cooling is in effect (at least in the valleys/low lying areas). May have to adjust temperatures down a few degrees in the typical cooler-than- surrounding-areas James River valley. Had to issue a Red Flag warning earlier this afternoon to account for the low humidity and strong winds across the eastern CWA. As has been the story for quite some time, sided with the higher end of guidance in regards to temperatures.
Radar continues to fill in across eastern Oregon and into north-central Idaho this evening as the trough moves through the area. Models remain in fair agreement regarding placement and timing of this trough, with most activity east of the area by the late morning hours of Wednesday. Building ridge and dry conditions anticipated for the remainder of Wednesday with temperatures right around seasonal normals.
Upper air analysis today shows a broad trof of low pressure positioned from the southeast US to the central Gulf. At the surface, a large ridge of high pressure extends from off the New England states, southwest to the central Gulf coast. This high will continue to be the dominant weather player going into tonight. The position of the high along with a gradual increase in boundary layer moisture favors the potential of late night fog development.
700 PM EST Tue Nov 28 2017 Easterly flow, around high pressure centered well to the north, a lingering boundary over the area, and an upper level disturbance are helping to keep chances of rain in the forecast through the TAF period. /issued 420 PM EST Tue Nov 28 2017/ At the surface, WPC analysis shows a prominent 1031 mb high over New England with a cold front draped southward from the midwest to Texas.
High pressure will fill in tonight bringing a quick decrease to the winds but the dry air will remain, although dew points will recover some to pre mixing levels. Highs will be a little cooler in southwest MN, in the 40s, while central SD will climb into the upper 50s.
616 PM EST Tue Nov 28 2017 Moisture starved cold front late tonight/Wednesday.
A dry, cold front is also crossing the region helping to enhance the winds - though a few snowflakes may squeeze out of the front. After the cold front crosses this afternoon, winds should slack off slowly through the night with some places even becoming fairly calm by Wednesday morning. With the cold front, expect temperatures to drop to sub-freezing again for a cold night on tap with lows in the teens in Minnesota and low twenties in Wisconsin -- with even a few snowflakes thrown in. High pressure firmly builds in on Wednesday for an overall pleasant, sunny day before the next front approaches Wednesday evening.
/issued 333 PM CST Tue Nov 28 2017/ The cold front has cleared the forecast area as of 3 pm with brisk north wind continuing late this afternoon.
824 PM MST Tue Nov 28 2017 Have dropped tonight's minimum temperatures in the high mountain valleys a few degrees due to the clear skies and last night's readings. Lows tonight should be a few degrees warmer with the downslope flow and modest warming aloft. On Wednesday, models show the tail end of the upper trough passing over the nrn Colorado mtns. Could see a stray snow shower or two over the higher peaks with its passage. Otherwise a dry and warmer day with high temperatures 12-15 deg f above highs today.
Cooler temperatures continue into tonight and Wednesday. The small cut off upper low moves through Oklahoma and weakens into an open wave as it moves through the plains while the next upper trough moves through the Pacific Northwest and emerges over the northern High Plains Wednesday afternoon. High pressure at the surface moves across the forecast area ahead of the next lee trough deepening along the Front Range in unison with the next upper trough moving east of the Rockies on Wednesday. Conditions will remain dry with some of the cooler temperatures over the western sections of the forecast area moderating slightly on Wednesday. Southwest to southwest near surface winds on the east side of the deepening lee trough will allow warm air advection and possible some downslope warming over the western sections.
841 PM MST Tue Nov 28 2017 Upper level trough continues to push east across WA/OR this evening with anticipated arrival into western MT around 06z tonight then continuing east across central and SW MT Wednesday morning.
High temperatures may have already topped out for most of the area with cooler temperatures streaming in behind the frontal boundary. The mid-level closed low located over the Four Corners region is expected to move across the central Plains with the center sweeping south of the area through northern Oklahoma. As for temperatures overnight, a range from below freezing in north central Kansas to mid 40s in east central Kansas is seen. Veering winds become lighter through the afternoon and high temperatures drop back towards seasonable values in the low 50s.
A cold front will enter the Edwards Plateau and northwestern Hill Country late evening, then move across South Central Texas overnight, exiting to the Coastal Plains near sunrise. Fog development is not anticipated west of I-35 due to a cold front set to move through the region.
A passing cold front will bring a few showers to SE OK and SW AR after 12z. Temperatures overnight to fall into the low to mid 50s areawide. Temperatures on Wednesday to climb into the lower 70s.
Gusty southerly winds continue this afternoon resulting in current temperatures in the lower to mid 60s across the region. For late tonight into tomorrow, the trailing end of a cold front will sink into southern IN and north central KY. Highs should top out in the low 60s in this region.
845 PM CST Tue Nov 28 2017 Ridging layered across the southeastern CONUS was helping continue tranquil weather across the Tennessee Valley. It was somewhat warmer across the region compared to last night, and the past few nights. Area dewpoints were in the mid 30s to lower 40s, with dry bulb air temperatures ranging in the lower 40s to near 50. Greater amounts of moisture and warmer overall temperatures should (except in the coldest spots) limit overnight frosting - with lows in the upper 30s to mid 40s.
508 PM CST Tue Nov 28 2017 A cold front will move across the area this afternoon and early this evening. However as the front moves south, it will stall a bit over northern Arkansas/western Kentucky/Tennessee as an upper level low pressure system moved into southeast Kansas/northeast Oklahoma Wednesday morning.
/Tonight through Wednesday/ Cold front is now through all but the far southeast and will exit the state entirely by 23Z. High pressure will begin to nose in and clear skies across the state. For Wednesday we will remain in the dry air but the high will shift to the east and return flow will set up across the state through the day. We are expecting sunny skies and temps just a little cooler than today. Despite winds becoming southerly, we will be starting out much cooler and recovery will be slow. We should remain dry through the afternoon with the high still in place over the east but clouds will increase across southern Iowa.
Cold front now moving into South Texas, currently just through VCT TAF site. Initial wind shift ahead of today's cold front is approaching the forecast area as or 4am. Cold front is through San Antonio and pushing south. around 70 degrees will occur this morning with temperatures into the lower to mid 60s by mid-day and into the 50s northeast in the afternoon. While cloudy skies will continue, low temperatures are still expected to drop into the mid and upper 40s for a lot of the area, remaining in the low 50s along the coast. Upper ridge moves off to the east rather quickly with easterly to southeasterly flow developing during the day on Sunday.
As of writing, the cold front has moved through all of S TX and was pushing across area waters.
1040 AM EDT Sat Apr 7 2018 Building high pressure will keep most areas dry today. The high should maintain dry weather Sunday. Otherwise, building high pressure will lead to drying and some clearing this afternoon, especially across the western counties.
527 AM MDT Sat Apr 7 2018 The latest upper-air and water vapor observations had a strong low off the West Coast with ridging onshore and a fairly broad long-wave trough dominating the eastern 2/3 of the CONUS.
With fresh snow, cloud cover, and continued cold air advection in advisory area, HRRR guidance also correlates that below freezing temperatures will remain until at least 10 or 1030 am CDT. The reason for the northward expansion was the duration of below freezing temps and with lows well down into the mid 20s.
After a record or near cold start to the day, will only see temperatures top off in the lower to perhaps middle 40s over the area this afternoon.
The reason for the northward expansion was the duration of below freezing temps and with lows well down into the mid 20s.
The area is looking at a current range from the low teens to the single numbers north. High pressure shifting east during the day today. combined with low pressure setting up over the Rockies will allow for a decent southerly gradient to set up over the area. As a result will be keeping in line with previous forecast of any rain to change to light freezing rain. The main concern will however focus on the potential for freezing rain amounts up to 0. NE CO will be the area where warm air stays intact and may offer more showers than freezing rain.
For PoPs, have kept the higher chance of showers across the southeast counties with the cold front in the vicinity. Those showers will gradually taper off as we get later in the afternoon with drier and cooler air moving in from the northwest.
There will still be some lingering snow showers and temperatures barely under freezing in west Kentucky at the time of the expiration of these advisories/warnings, but expect a sharp improvement by 11 am CDT. With fresh snow, cloud cover, and continued cold air advection in advisory area, HRRR guidance also correlates that below freezing temperatures will remain until at least 10 or 1030 am CDT. The reason for the northward expansion was the duration of below freezing temps and with lows well down into the mid 20s.
Further north and east, cooler air will be in place over the snow cover and it will be difficult to break the freezing mark. While temperatures may be only around 10F warmer over the east, they will be about 15F warmer over the southwest.
932 AM EDT Sat Apr 7 2018 Snow will end this morning as a cold front moves south of the region. High pressure will move in through the rest of the weekend, but temperatures will remain well below normal. Drier air in the low levels will continue to work in from the northwest but some mid level moisture dropping down across the area will likely linger some mid level cloudiness into this afternoon. This will lead to good radiational cooling conditions, and temperatures should easily drop into the lower to middle 20s.
/issued 629 AM CDT Sat Apr 7 2018/ IFR/MVFR ceilings to prevail through much of the day with northeast winds forecast to increase to around 15 to 20 knots with higher gusts as high pressure rebuilds across the region.
1255 PM EDT Sat Apr 7 2018 Building high pressure will keep most areas dry today. The high should maintain dry weather Sunday. Otherwise, building high pressure will lead to drying and some clearing this afternoon, especially across the western counties.
A much colder air mass will spill into the region today behind a cold front. The pressure gradient will also tighten today as a ridge builds in. Low temperatures tonight will run 10 to 15 degrees below normal, however the chilly temperatures will be short lived as the ridge will quickly shift east and start a return flow Sunday.
1237 PM EDT Sat Apr 7 2018 A quiet and cold weekend is expected as high pressure builds into the region.
The cold front continues to push south across South-Central Texas overnight. Temperatures will be a bit warmer and in the 60s for the Rio Grande Valley and Edwards Plateau. For tonight, some cloud cover will linger across the eastern CWA with lows in the upper 30s and 40s across the area with the lower temperatures in the Hill Country.
/issued 346 AM CDT Sat Apr 7 2018/ It's cooler this morning and we'll see a cloudy start to the day. This low's movement will be impeded by a high amplitude ridge extending from the desert southwest beyond northern BC. However, into early Sunday, the ridge will rapidly transition to near zonal flow. The trough that will pass to our north is but a mere shadow of what it was a few days ago. As the trough makes its passage, we'll see ridging build along the west coast once again.
Any snow that develops will likely begin to shift east of the region by mid day with temperatures warming above freezing around this time. Generally south of a Tulsa/Fort Smith line, low temperatures are expected to only fall into the lower 30s so will hold off for now on a freeze warning for those areas.
617 AM CDT Sat Apr 7 2018 Strong cold front has now pushed all the way down to south TX with Arctic air spilling across the Plains. We will finally see a warm-up commence on Tue as we get into some lee troughing and return flow. Confidence is high that by Wed we will see above normal temps with even warmer readings expected for Thu.
1030 mb Canadian high pressure over the central and northern plains will drift into the MS river valley during this evening, bringing fair and cold weather to IL thru tonight. Despite the ample sunshine, a cold day unfolding with highs in the lower 40s, which is 15-20 degrees below normal for early April. Canadian high pressure building into the Plains/Upper Midwest is gradually pushing clouds and very light snow south of the KILX CWA early this morning. Despite abundant sunshine, light northerly winds will keep temperatures well below normal for this time of year in the lower to middle 40s. With high pressure overhead, clear skies and light winds will allow lows tonight to once again drop into the lower to middle 20s.
629 AM CDT Sat Apr 7 2018 IFR/MVFR ceilings to prevail through much of the day with northeast winds forecast to increase to around 15 to 20 knots with higher gusts as high pressure rebuilds across the region.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 51 32 58 44 / 50 10 10 40 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 44 28 55 39 / 50 10 10 50 Oak Ridge, TN 44 29 55 38 / 40 10 10 50 Tri Cities Airport, TN 42 26 50 34 / 60 20 10 60 TN.
Cold, late winter-like pattern to hold throughout the weekend and upcoming early work week as broad upper level troughing remains locked over much of northern North America.
While temperatures may be only around 10F warmer over the east, they will be about 15F warmer over the southwest.
An intrusion of 850 mb air dry should aid clearing in the eastern sections well, in advance of the another ramp up in cloud cover and precipitation chances as a warm front surges north and mid level frontogenesis develops (according to the NAM) across eastern Colorado into central Kansas. At this point the 00ZNAM with some general support from GFS, suggests a quick rain/freezing or sleet overnight Sunday toward 12 Z Sunday morning.
Low level wind fields will be reaching their strongest magnitude at this time due to deepening low pressure in Georgia/South Carolina, so if moistening occurs early enough to capture some of the daytime instability, more robust convection with a greater coverage could develop. Southwest winds will increase 15-20 knots with gusts to 25 knots today ahead of a cold front.
This shift in winds is due to the retreating high pressure over the north Atlantic and ridge moving to the east of the local area. An area of low pressure over the southeast US this morning will move to the east northeast and its associated cold front will remain to our north and dissipate as it moves south over the Florida Peninsula.
but as high pressure approaches this afternoon and tonight. with the cold front now across SWRN sections of the state. High pressure will settle over the area tonight. This will result in widespread near or below freezing temps for most of the CWA. This will bring warmer temps for Sun afternoon.
Colder air overspreads the area behind the front, with norther parts of the forecast area seeing the high for the day early in the day, along the coast later.
Temperatures well below the freezing mark along with frost can be expected. Snow amounts will be somewhat limited due to above freezing temps for at least the first half of the event. The highest amounts are expected to occur where earlier onset and/or temps can cool the fastest and this should be in the northern and western areas of the CWA, where an inch, possibly as high as 2" will be possible.
630 AM CDT Sat Apr 7 2018 A cold front draped from ELA to OCH early this morning will continue making southward progress across the terminals, clearing the coast sometime around 15Z. /ISSUED 436 AM CDT Sat Apr 7 2018/ Cold front pushing through the middle of SETX at 4 am and should be off the coast around 9-10 am near Galveston sooner near Palacios. Much cooler air on the northern doorstep this morning and it is coming here. 4 pm temperatures will be 15 to 30 degrees cooler than yesterday.
/Today through Tonight/ Subsidence has spread across the state overnight with surface ridging across central Plains. Temperatures will rebound with the sunshine but remain well below normal with large thermal trof across the upper midwest. No precipitation is expected overnight as the lower levels of the atmosphere remain dry.
Day shift may want to re-evaluate if those warmer temperatures don't materialize.
748 AM EDT Sat Apr 7 2018 A frontal boundary south of Long Island will drop into the Mid Atlantic region today as low pressure develops along it and passes well south and east of the area late tonight into Sunday.
602 AM CDT Sat Apr 7 2018 Canadian high pressure building into the Plains/Upper Midwest is gradually pushing clouds and very light snow south of the KILX CWA early this morning. Despite abundant sunshine, light northerly winds will keep temperatures well below normal for this time of year in the lower to middle 40s. With high pressure overhead, clear skies and light winds will allow lows tonight to once again drop into the lower to middle 20s.
A cold front along the Appalachian Chain to the central Gulf coast and Atlantic high pressure ridging west over the Florida Keys will move east and south. The waters will be sandwiched by a front to the north and high pressure to the south with winds south or southwest and becoming around 15 knots for the afternoon with some gusts.
Did increase southeast winds across the west for this afternoon and evening with good pressure falls ahead of low pressure across Montana and Wyoming. Current surface analysis places high pressure stretching from the Canadian plains through the northern and central plains resulting in frigid temperatures over much of the area. Upper level analysis places trough over the Great Lakes and ridge over the western United States, with deep low spinning off the Pacific northwest shore.
Cold Canadian high pressure overspread the region, resulting in temperatures in the 15 to 20 degree range and wind chill values in the single digits.
Highs today are expected to reach the low 30s. High pressure will build south into southern Lake Michigan tonight and tomorrow, with light winds expected for most of Sunday.