Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
WIDESPREAD FREEZING TEMPERATURES MAY OCCUR ACROSS THE VALLEYS OF GRAHAM AND COCHISE COUNTIES LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. EXPECT WARMER TEMPERATURES FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 05/00Z UPPER-AIR PLOTS SHOW THE TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL MONTANA THROUGH WESTERN WYOMING. THE PRECIPITATION THREAT WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL END THIS MORNING AS THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO NEW MEXICO BY THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY. ANOTHER SECONDARY VERY WEAK TROUGH BEHIND THIS ONE WILL SWING THROUGH TO OUR NORTHEAST LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. OUR NEXT CONCERN WILL BE FREEZING/SUBFREEZING LOW TEMPERATURES FOR PARTS OF COCHISE AND GRAHAM COUNTY FOR LATE TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. MODELS HAVE BEEN ADVERTISING 32 DEGREE TEMPS OR BELOW FOR A FEW MODEL RUNS NOW AND THE MOST RECENT MOS NUMBERS HAVE COME IN EVEN COOLER FOR SOME PLACES.
641 AM EST THU NOV 5 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION TONIGHT AND MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA TONIGHT AND MOVE THROUGH ON FRIDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON FRIDAY. COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL THEN FILTER INTO THE AREA.
THEN DECREASING SHOWERS AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. DRY DAY FOR FRI AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS INLAND.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS GULF COAST STATES WILL BRING ANOTHER DAY WITH A TOUCH OF LATE SUMMER TO CENTRAL ALABAMA TODAY. THE BIG FEATURE OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD IS STILL THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE AND SUBSEQUENT COOL DOWN OVER THE WEEKEND.
625 AM CST THU NOV 5 2015 LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES THIS MORNING WITH A LEAD SHORT WAVE OVER THE PLAINS AND A SECOND SHORT WAVE DROPPING INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. SHORT RANGE MODELS DEPICT THE SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH TO PHASE WITH THE SHORT WAVE OVER THE ROCKIES THIS AFTERNOON.
956 AM EST THU NOV 5 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TODAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE REGION LATER TONIGHT. INTENSE LOW PRESSURE PASSES BY WELL NORTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT SENDING A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION.
THURSDAY NIGHTS SYSTEM SHIFTS QUICKLY OUT OF THE AREA FRIDAY WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING IN QUICKLY IN ITS WAKE. WARM ADVECTION AND SUBSIDENCE WILL BRING DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS TO THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WILL BE DRY MILD AND BREEZY THANKS TO A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE.
FAIR AND WARMER WEATHER IS FORECAST TODAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT RETURNS.
312 AM MST THU NOV 5 2015 UPPER TROUGH/SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA TODAY BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY TO THE WESTERN HALF. CLOUDS WILL THIN OUT IN THE LATE AFTERNOON WITH A SMALL WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR WARMING BUT DO NOT THINK IT WILL BE ENOUGH TIME TO SIGNIFICANTLY AFFECT HIGHS AND WILL FOLLOW COOLER GUIDANCE.
535 AM EST THU NOV 5 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN WARM AND DRY WEATHER TODAY. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. THINK THE RIDGES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY DRY THROUGH 12Z. SUCH IS LIFE UNDERNEATH ANOMALOUS NOVEMBER RIDGES. CL A STRONG H5 TROUGH WILL EJECT INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON FRIDAY AND DRIVE A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY. WIDESPREAD RAIN IS EXPECT AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE COLD FRONT.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND A SLIGHT WARMING TREND FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA.
910 AM EST THU NOV 5 2015 UNSEASONABLY WARM WITH HIGH PRESSURE TODAY. COLD FRONT FRIDAY. COOLER. BL FLOW PICKS UPS AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. INITIALLY STRONG UPPER TROUGH SHEARS OUT TO THE NORTHEAST TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY. WITH ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WEAKENING AND SLOWING AS IT DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.
CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FEATURE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE EAST ALONG THE NC AND VA COAST. WARMER TEMPS ADVECTING INTO THE AREA TODAY AND STILL UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF EXITING HIGH PRESSURE WILL STILL LEAVE QUITE A STOUT CAP IN PLACE ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. AS A POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH IS ALIGNED FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS DOWN THROUGH THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SITUATED ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE TROUGH AXIS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST WITH TIME AND DAMPEN. WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A CUTOFF LOW BREAKING AWAY ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITHIN THE SOUTHERN STREAM. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOVING ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY FRIDAY EVENING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
GRADUAL CLEARING TONIGHT WILL LEAD TO PATCHY FREEZING FOG EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
BUT AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT WILL INCREASE RAIN CHANCES FOR FRIDAY. NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR THE POST DAWN UPDATE AS MID LVL CLOUDINESS AND WARMTH WL BE MAINTAINED TODAY UNDER BROAD HIGH PRESSURE.
545 AM CST THU NOV 5 2015 SHOWERS ARE SPREADING ACROSS WEST AND NORTH ARKANSAS THIS MORNING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
1039 AM EST THU NOV 5 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION TONIGHT AND MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE WEEKEND. HIGHLY AMPLIFIED MID/UPR LEVEL FLOW WITH MEAN TROF OVER THE WESTERN US AND A LARGE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST WITH FLOW BACKING TO THE SW BY LATE AFTN. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA TONIGHT AND MOVE THROUGH ON FRIDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON FRIDAY. COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL THEN FILTER INTO THE AREA.
631 AM EST THU NOV 5 2015 UPDATED CLIMATE SECTION HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TODAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE REGION LATER TONIGHT. INTENSE LOW PRESSURE PASSES BY WELL NORTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT SENDING A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION.
638 AM EST THU NOV 5 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE THE AREA WITH UNSEASONABLY MILD WEATHER INTO FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATER FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS. MID LEVEL RIDGE CRESTS OVER THE REGION TODAY WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASING IN THE LOWER LEVELS. SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES AHEAD OF PROGRESSING MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL TRAVERSE EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION THURSDAY NIGHT, REACHING OUR DOORSTEP EARLY FRIDAY.
1036 AM EST THU NOV 5 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY TODAY.
AS THE SOUTHERN TROUGH ATTEMPTS TO CLOSE OFF SOUTH OF THE FOUR CORNERS SOME AIR BEGINS TO CIRCULATE BACK TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST AND THE LOW CENTER. DROPPED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR THE LOWER-ELEVATIONS OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. MOISTURE ERODES A BIT EARLY THIS EVENING THEN ANOTHER TROUGH WILL CLIP THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. COOLER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
THE COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL MN BY 16Z. WITH WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES PREVAILING INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. FRIDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL FLIRT WITH FREEZING.
728 AM EST THU NOV 5 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE THE AREA WITH UNSEASONABLY MILD WEATHER INTO FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATER FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS. MID LEVEL RIDGE CRESTS OVER THE REGION TODAY WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASING IN THE LOWER LEVELS. SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES AHEAD OF PROGRESSING MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL TRAVERSE EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION THURSDAY NIGHT, REACHING OUR DOORSTEP EARLY FRIDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY. A COOLER. MID DECK IMPACTING PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A LOWER STRATOCU DECK ENTRENCHED OVER THE LOWER SUSQ IN RESPONSE TO INCREASINGLY MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW. WITH READINGS A BIT COOLER THAN WED DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER. A LARGE UPPER TROUGH WITH STRONG SWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL NEWD FROM MN TOWARD JAMES/HUDSON BAY WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT SWEEPING EWD TO NEAR AN ALPENA MI TO INDIANAPOLIS IN LINE BY 12Z FRIDAY.
TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WATER VAPOR SHOWS UPPER TROF AXIS EXTENDING FROM NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS THROUGH WRN PORTIONS OF THE NRN PLAINS. PCPN WILL QUICKLY END FROM WEST TO EAST AS UPPER TROF SHIFTS EWD. NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROF. HIGHS WILL BE NEAR OR A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY.
/ISSUED 149 AM CST THU NOV 5 2015/ SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING AS SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE ROCKIES MIGRATES EASTWARD. THIS TROUGH WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR INCREASED RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE ARKLATEX LATER TODAY. RAINFALL RATES ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH AS THE UPPER-TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY PROGRESS ACROSS THE AREA LATER TONIGHT.
Main challenge is the intensity of showers and storms tonight and Friday as a dynamic upper low ejects out of the Four Corners region. By tonight POPs ramp up to categorical, as the low-level jet cranks up near 50 kt ahead of the front. Seasomable temps return Friday night as much cooler air finally spills in behind the front.
633 AM EST THU NOV 5 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO GIVE OUR AREA VERY WARM TEMPS AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS INTO FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS FRIDAY WITH SHOWERS AND MAYBE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. FOR THE WEEKEND IT WILL BE COOLER AND MORE SEASONAL. COULD AGAIN BE CLOSE TO RECORD DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURES BUT A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. AGAIN A FEW SPRINKLES POSSIBLE THIS EVENING BEFORE THE MAIN BATCH OF SHOWERS COMES IN AHEAD OF STRONG COLD FRONT AND DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROF.
541 AM CST THU NOV 5 2015 SURFACE COLD FRONT BISECTING THE FORECAST AREA WITH MILD. MOIST AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND COOLER AIR BEHIND. THE NORTHERN STREAM PORTION OF THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO RAPIDLY CUT OFF OUR FORECAST AREA FROM OUR MOISTURE FETCH. THEREFORE THE HIGHS ARE FOLLOWING SUIT WITH READINGS REACHING THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S IS ALL.
424 AM MST THU NOV 5 2015 UPPER TROUGH/SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA TODAY BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY TO THE WESTERN HALF. CLOUDS WILL THIN OUT IN THE LATE AFTERNOON WITH A SMALL WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR WARMING BUT DO NOT THINK IT WILL BE ENOUGH TIME TO SIGNIFICANTLY AFFECT HIGHS AND WILL FOLLOW COOLER GUIDANCE.
AND MAY BRIEFLY DROP A BIT MORE TO IFR AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. ALL ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH TODAY.
SO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS MAY SEE A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE DRY AND A BIT WARMER THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME MORE SEASONAL OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS RIDGING SLIDES OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER VIRGINIA AND NORTHERN CAROLINA THIS MORNING. WEAK CONVERGENCE IS IN PLACE ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.
THE MAIN TROUGH WILL BE PUSHING OVERHEAD THIS MORNING WITH UPWARD QG VERTICAL MOTION TO HELP BRING BACK A SECOND. HAVE INCREASED POPS SIGNIFICANTLY FOR THE HIGH COUNTRY AND MENTIONED ANOTHER 1-4 INCHES ON TOP OF LATE TONIGHTS SNOWFALL. THE AIRMASS WILL THEN GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE STATE.
AS FOR SNOW ECMWF STILL THE COLDEST HOWEVER ALL MODELS A BIT WARMER THROUGH THE COLUMN TODAY. WILL NEED TO MONITOR TIMING FOR SNOW AMOUNTS OVER NW MN AS COOLER AIR SHIFTS EAST. BETTER PUSH OF COLDER AIR HOLDS OFF TIL FRIDAY SO LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF FREEZING.
LOW PRESSURE WILL EXIT THE REGION THIS MORNING. USHERING IN DRIER AIR AND CONTINUED COOLER TEMPERATURES.
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE WATERS LATER TONIGHT. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
703 AM EDT SAT MAR 19 2016 CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES TODAY WHILE WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST MOVES SLOWLY ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY BY SUNDAY.
At 06Z, two frontal systems were analyzed across the southeast-a weak stationary frontal boundary draped across central Georgia and Alabama, and a progressive cold front to the west stretching from northeastern Mississippi down to the coastline of Texas. A line of showers stretches from central Georgia down to New Orleans, well ahead of the actual cold front.
COOL TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S ARE FORECAST AREA WIDE AS COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL LEAD TO AT OR BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES AGAIN TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. A FREEZE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THOSE AREAS THAT WERE UNDER A FREEZE WATCH WHICH IS WHERE FREEZING TEMPS ARE MOST LIKELY AND ISSUED A FREEZE WATCH FOR THE REST OF THE CWA.
1033 AM EDT SAT MAR 19 2016 COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
1206 PM EDT SAT MAR 19 2016 LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING RAIN AND SNOW THIS WEEKEND WITH BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. WITH AN INVERTED SFC TROF EXTENDING N INTO WRN PA. EXPECTING SNOW IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WV AND MD. SFC TEMPS SHOULD WARM ENOUGH OUTSIDE OF THE RIDGES TO PRECLUDE SNOW ACCUMULATION. WITH 2-4 INCHES PSBL IN THE WV/MD RIDGES WHERE COLDER TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO REMAIN. ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING WFO/S. THE UPR LOW IS PROGGGED TO OPEN INTO A TROF SUN AS COASTAL LOW DEVELOPMENT OCCURS OFF THE CAROLINAS. THE UPR TROF IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE UPR OH VLY RGN LATE SUN AND SUN NGT. A CROSSING WARM FRONT IN ZONAL FLOW SHOULD BRING WARMER TEMPS TUE.
715 AM EDT SAT MAR 19 2016 COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN FROM QUEBEC WITH FAIR BUT COLD WEATHER.
AN ADDITIONAL WEAK SURGE OF COOLER AIR WILL BE MOVING DOWN THE PLAINS LATER THIS MORNING AND WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHERLY ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES. WE MAY SEE A FEW ISOLD SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TRRN OF THE PIKES PEAK REGION BY LATE AFTERNOON AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES SE IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER COLORADO WITH DRY WEATHER AND WARMER TEMPERATURES.
A closed low has formed along the IA/MN border and will gradually work southward today. Expect to see a good deal of cloud cover over the CWA as the upper low drops through eastern MO and thus help insulate the region. This would favor slightly warmer temperatures than previous forecast and negate the need for a second freeze warning.
THE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED OFF THE COAST WITH NORTH WINDS AVERAGING AROUND 10 TO 20 MPH AND GUSTY ACROSS ALMOST ALL OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS.
SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL WAVES MOVING ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL LEAD TO BROAD CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE DEPARTING LOW WILL BRING A COLD FRONT INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA ON SUNDAY, BRINGING SECONDARY ROUND OF SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA, ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
AN UPPER TROF OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS. WITH AN EMBEDDED UPPER LOW. THIS SYSTEM BRINGS A COLD FRONT. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S OVER INTERIOR SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI/INTERIOR SOUTHWEST ALABAMA TO THE LOWER 70S OVER THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA PANHANDLE.
THE WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL EXIT THE AREA EARLY IN THE PERIOD.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT ACROSS THE INTERIOR WEST WILL BRING A WARMING TREND WITH DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS UTAH THIS WEEKEND. A COOLER AND SIGNIFICANTLY WETTER WEATHER PATTERN WILL RETURN EARLY IN THE WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SETTLES INTO THE GREAT BASIN. THE AXIS OF THE UPPER RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER NEVADA WILL SHIFT EAST AND SETTLE OVER UTAH LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. MINIMAL CLOUD COVER AND WARMING ALOFT WILL LEAD TO SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. THIS STRONG WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE IN SUNDAY AS TEMPS ALOFT INCREASE FURTHER AND MIXING IMPROVES AS A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INCREASES AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS INTO EASTERN UTAH/WESTERN COLORADO.
WITH CURRENT AIR TEMPERATURES NEAR 80F AND DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. THE LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW APPEARS TO BE SLIGHTLY DIFLUENT. BOTH SKY COVER AND RAIN CHANCES WILL GO UP TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND SHIFT NORTHEASTWARD TONIGHT. IN ADVANCE OF A SOUTHWARD-MOVING COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE FLORIDA KEYS SUNDAY.
/12Z UPDATE/ COLD FRONT HAS MOVED SOUTH OF THE REGION THIS MORNING. AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY THE MAIN WILL BE THE STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS. A STRONGER SUN AS SPRING APPROACHES ALLOWS HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY TO BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN TODAY AS COLD ADVECTION ENDS.
NO AVIATION WX CONCERNS THEREAFTER AS HIGH PRESSURE DRAWS CLOSER. BUT EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS SOUTH OF THE HIGH TEND NOT TO BE THE MOST EFFICIENT FOR STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING IN OUR CWA.
COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY STRETCHING FROM TUPELO, MS SOUTHWESTWARD INTO CENTRAL LOUISIANA. THAT FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY TODAY WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND DRIER AIR FILTERING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND RIDGE OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS WILL HELP PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. 56/GDG THE UPPER LOW MOVES THROUGH ON SUNDAY AND THEN DRIER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM THROUGH MID WEEK.
1006 AM MDT SAT MAR 19 2016 WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING IN, A QUIET WEATHER DAY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CWA ON THIS LAST OFFICIAL DAY OF WINTER. IN ADDITION, A SOUTHERLY DOWNSLOPING WIND OFF THE CENTRAL MONTANA MOUNTAINS SHOULD HELP TO PUSH TEMPS INTO THE LOW TO MID- 50S IN THIS AREA. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS.
The low appears to be near the TN/NC border and the cold front is draped over north/central AL and southern MS. The cold front is on track to move through the region in the afternoon and evening hours. Rain is currently clearing out for us, however showers and a few thunderstorms will likely move in later this afternoon as the cold front approaches.
622 AM CDT SAT MAR 19 2016 LIGHT SNOW WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TODAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SNOW SHIFTS SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION.
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION BUT WITH SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS PASSING THROUGH. CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP TONIGHT'S LOWS A BIT WARMER WITH TEMPERATURES STAYING ABOVE FREEZING.
STRONG COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH THE AREA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE SOUTHEASTERN THIRD OF THE MARINE AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY. LEFT OVER MCS THAT MOVES OFF THE LOWER TEXAS COAST ALSO MOVING ALONG THE COLD FRONT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. A COLD FRONT IS ALSO MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. ROBUST MCS THAT EXITED THE LOWER TX COAST SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT CONTINUES EWD ACROSS THE NW GULF. WILL INCREASE FURTHER THROUGH THE MORNING HRS AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE DEPARTING FRONT AND A STOUT HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE PLAINS. HAVE ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR ROUGHLY THE SE HALF OR SO OF THE AREA WHERE BOTH NUMERICAL GUIDANCE AND MODEL PROGGED WINDS AT THE SFC AND WITHIN THE LOWEST FEW THOUSAND FT INDICATE CRITERIA CONDITIONS HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF BEING MET.
THE AIR MASS IS RATHER STABLE PLUS A DECENT AMOUNT OF DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS. LIGHT WINDS AND LITTLE TO NO CLOUD COVER WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP NEAR THE COOLER GUIDANCE AND LOWER THE MINS FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ROTATING ACROSS THE MN/IOWA BORDER REGION WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE VERY SLOWLY SOUTHWARD AS THE DAY WEARS ON. WITH STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA AND NORTHERN MN.
LOW TEMPS ACROSS THE LOWER TREASURE VALLEY AND IDAHO MOUNTAINS AND SE OREGON WERE AROUND 8F WARMER THIS MORNING WHILE THE WARMING WAS ONLY 2-5F ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL IDAHO. BUILDING UPPER RIDGE WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND. PASSING HIGH CLOUDS TODAY AS MOISTURE STREAMS THROUGH THE RIDGE. CLOUDS INCREASE FURTHER ON SUNDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS WILL COOL TEMPERATURES ACROSS SOUTHEAST OREGON SUNDAY WHILE A WARMER AIRMASS AND LESS CLOUD COVER WILL WARM TEMPERATURES FROM TODAY ACROSS SOUTHWEST IDAHO. WINDS ARE GUSTY BOTH DAYS AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AND WINDS ALOFT INCREASE AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH.
WE WILL BE LOOKING CLOSELY AT INCOMING DATA REGARDING LOW TEMPERATURES FOR TONIGHT FOR A POSSIBLE PRODUCT HIGHLIGHTING EITHER FREEZING TEMPERATURES OR FROST.
THERE WILL BE SUNSHINE IN THE NORTH THAT SHOULD SELF DESTRUCT WITH CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE LOW/MID 30S. CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 30S AND WITH A MOIST LAYER BETWEEN 925-850MB FEEL THERE WILL BE MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN. DEWPOINTS HOLD IN THE LOWER 20S TONIGHT SO GOOD STARTING OFF POINT FOR MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE IN THE LOWER 30S HOWEVER MOIST LAYER MORE SHALLOW SO MORE SOLAR IS POSSIBLE. WITH ABOVE TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER.
THE UPPER LOW THAT BROUGHT SNOW TO THE PARK RANGE IS MOVING THROUGH IOWA TODAY. THIS ALLOWS A RIDGE TO AMPLIFY INTO THE GREAT BASIN.
900 AM CDT SAT MAR 19 2016 WE HAVE ADDED FOG TO THE FORECAST IN THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY UNTIL 17 UTC GIVEN OBSERVED 1/4SM VISIBILITIES AT BOTH CARRINGTON AND JAMESTOWN AT MID MORNING ALONG WITH WEB CAMERAS SHOWING THE LOW VISIBILITIES ALONG INTERSTATE 94 AT JAMESTOWN. COOL TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S ARE FORECAST AREA WIDE AS COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
Pcpn chances will linger in the eastern/northeastern half of the region today and into tonight, due to the presence of an inverted surface trof that formed just to the east of our region. This trof is progged to pivot southwestward in concert with a developing mid level low in the upper Midwest. The low will dive southeastward and into the PAH forecast area by midday Sunday.
Temperatures by daybreak Sunday are expected to be in the low to mid 30s across the entire area, with a few readings at or just below the freezing mark in some of the more sheltered areas. Limited coverage and duration of frost/freezing temperatures will preclude issuing a Frost Advisory and/or Freeze Warning at this time.
939 AM EDT SAT MAR 19 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP DRY WEATHER IN OUR AREA INTO SUNDAY.
845 AM PDT SAT MAR 19 2016 A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST WILL CONTINUE FAIR AND WARM WEATHER INLAND.
LIGHT SNOW WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TODAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SNOW SHIFTS SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION.
WV imagery indicates a broad scale upper level trough of low pressure dropping southeast across the Upper Midwest. Meanwhile, weak upper level ridging is shifting slowly east across the Great Basin. Near the surface, an area of high pressure is sinking southward across the Northern Plains. Upper level low pressure centered over northwest Iowa early this morning is progged to move into southern Illinois by Sunday morning. With cooler temperatures aloft over the region, high temperatures will be in the 40s except for a few 50 degree readings along the Oklahoma border. With clearing skies and light winds under the high, expect temperatures will bottom out closer to the colder NAM MOS guidance temperatures. Given that normal low temperatures for mid March are still at or slightly below freezing, will not be issuing any freeze headlines.
CLOUDS HAVE HELPED TEMPERATURES REBOUND FROM THE LOW 20S THAT WERE SEEN EARLIER IN THE NIGHT TO THE MID AND UPPER 20S. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WITH THE COOL ADVECTION AND CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS THE AREA. THE WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND THE TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER DURING THE NIGHT AS WELL.
SEE DISCUSSION BELOW WITH OVERNIGHT COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE AREA TEMPERATURES RUNNING RUNNING 10 TO NEARLY 20 DEGREES BEHIND 24 HOURS AGO. THE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED OFF THE COAST WITH NORTH WINDS AVERAGING AROUND 10 TO 20 MPH AND GUSTY ACROSS ALMOST ALL OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS.