Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
----BMickelson Previous discussion: A cold front will continue to drift slowly south across the region today. It will bring cooler temperatures with it. A somewhat unstable atmosphere will allow for chances for thunderstorms with the best chances in the southwest which will be closer to the cold front.
Soundings remain fairly dry in the lower levels though, so will likely not see much if any in the way of accumulations. In regard to temperatures, have afternoon highs a few degrees higher than today - with values largely in the low to mid 80s.
(This evening through Wednesday night) Slightly positive tilted ridge over the Four Corners area with a weak positive tilted trough over the Southern High Plains continues today. We will transition to a more northerly flow over the Panhandles on Wednesday as the ridge shifts further east and kicks out the trough that was over the Southern High Plains.
321 PM EDT Tue Aug 23 2022 A weak high pressure ridge builds from the Upper Midwest through Wednesday night.
18Z surface data has high pressure over the mid-Mississippi Valley with low pressure over South Dakota.
Before storms and cloud cover increase into the afternoon, highs will be able to reach the low 90s, and potentially mid 90s over some inland spots.
Weak weather system over the Pacific northwest has dampened the upper ridge enough to cool temperatures a few degrees over NorCal.
719 PM CDT Tue Aug 23 2022 The weather across Middle Tennessee remains amazingly quiet as high pressure builds in from the north and a dry air mass blankets the mid state.
Weak surface ridging will keep mostly clear skies and allow for cooler mornings with lows dipping into the lower and mid 60s.
STP More storms expected today and tomorrow as an upper low sits over the Pacific Northwest and continues to bring monsoonal moisture into the area. After today's highs that look to be similar to yesterday, we should cool off tonight behind a subtle cold front, and highs will only be in the low 80s on Wednesday.
With low temperatures slightly warmer than last night's, the gap between water and air temperatures isn't as large as it was the previous two nights. High pressure is also moving east away from the area, allowing winds to marginally increase across portions of central Missouri. It still looks like there will be a large upper trough over the Hudson Bay with a high over the southwest CONUS which will set up northwesterly flow over the Midwest late this week.
Temperatures were in the upper 60s to the lower 70s. At the surface, high pressure remains centered over the Midwest. Temperatures are expected to drop into the low to mid 60s.
(This evening through Wednesday) Widespread showers and thunderstorms continue across the region this afternoon in response to a stubborn broad upper level trof across the southern U.
Clear skies, low winds, and radiative cooling will still support some fog in low lying areas overnight as high pressure shifts southeast. A couple vorticity maximums and a wave of low pressure currently over the nrn high plains will then slowly move across srn WI late Wed nt-Thu. Nely sfc winds and weak cold advection will then prevail Thu nt-Fri followed by high pressure for Fri afternoon and night.
1029 PM EDT Tue Aug 23 2022 Currently - A broad mid latitude trough over the eastern United States is continuing to bleed the western flank of the Atlantic ridge across our area. In effect, the Atlantic ridge is retreating eastward. While this evenings sounding indicated seasonably unstable, uncapped, with ample precipitable water, the weakening flow and dominant ridge has not been to supportive of convective activity this evening. Short term update - The ridge will continue to retreat eastward through the overnight period, leaving the Keys in a fairly weak pressure pattern with lower pressure off to the southwest. Expect overnight lows to fall in the lower 80s with dew points remaining in the mid 70s. The Atlantic ridge will remain displaced to the northeast of Keys waters through the overnight period.
658 PM EDT Tue Aug 23 2022 A weak cold front will move off the coast later today.
750 PM EDT Tue Aug 23 2022 A weak high pressure ridge builds from the Upper Midwest through Wednesday night.
630 PM CDT Tue Aug 23 2022 (Tonight) Spotty showers and storms over SE OK/WC AR rotating around the north side of an upper low near TXK will fade with the loss of daytime heating this evening. Overnight lows across far NE OK and NW AR will be cooler where the drier air is located.
Thankfully, the increased cloud cover and/or presence of precipitation should keep temperatures in the 80s across the area; however, the swampy/muggy conditions should continue to make it feel several degrees warmer than it actually is. /Issued 243 PM CDT Tue Aug 23 2022/ /Wednesday Night Onward/ By the latter half of the work week, the upper level high will be centered well to our west as an upper level trough deepens to the east.
328 PM MDT Tue Aug 23 2022 Thanks to the upper low pressure system over Washington State, this slow-moving to near-stationary cold front here locally seems to be the forcing mechanism for current thunderstorms across NE Montana, but it should be noted that most, if not all model data is a very poor representation of expected precipitation.
/issued 327 PM CDT Tue Aug 23 2022/ The mid-level trough over the Arklatex hasn't moved much today but has provided modest forcing for ascent over the Mid-South.
Temperatures this afternoon will remain on the mild side, in the 70s and 80s for most, with lows tonight ranging from the lower 60s to lower 70s. Rain chances Wednesday will be similar to today, focused mainly across southern areas, as well as along the higher terrain of Southeast New Mexico and West Texas given continued easterly upslope flow.
Otherwise, VFR conditions will continue with weak surface ridging into east Tennessee keeping with light and less than 10kts. Chattanooga Airport, TN 69 88 70 85 70 / 0 20 30 60 30 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 66 88 68 86 68 / 0 10 10 40 20 Oak Ridge, TN 66 88 67 86 68 / 0 0 10 20 20 Tri Cities Airport, TN 59 86 65 85 64 / 0 10 10 20 10.
641 PM CDT Tue Aug 23 2022 (This evening through Wednesday night) Slightly positive tilted ridge over the Four Corners area with a weak positive tilted trough over the Southern High Plains continues today. We will transition to a more northerly flow over the Panhandles on Wednesday as the ridge shifts further east and kicks out the trough that was over the Southern High Plains.
222 PM PDT Tue Aug 23 2022 Temperatures will be a couple degrees warmer today and again on Wednesday. Highs on Wednesday will be as much as 10 degrees above average for this time of year with widespread triple digit heat across the lower elevations.
736 PM EDT Tue Aug 23 2022 High pressure over the region will result in generally dry weather and near seasonal temperatures through mid-week. Low pressure crossing the Upper Mid-West into the Great Lakes is expected to bring increasing chances for showers and storms by the weekend. Some storms possible mainly along southern Blue Ridge.
On Wednesday, the mid-level high pressure center will transition from it's location over south-central Nevada to the Four Corners. This is despite the fact that a low pressure system passing through the Northern Tier is expected to push our mid-level high center well south of the Four Corners. Storm coverage will increase beginning tomorrow as high pressure transitions towards the Four Corners.
Surface based ridging with perpetual dry northwest flow will result in SKC developing overnight. Little change to air mass for Wednesday under continued surface ridging.
706 PM CDT Tue Aug 23 2022 (Tonight) A stalled surface boundary stretching roughly along the I-20 corridor of TX/LA/MS/AL and an area of low pressure propagating along it continues to generate dense cloud cover and widespread showers and thunderstorms across much of the ArkLaMiss into portions of western Alabama. Still, widely scattered showers and a few thunderstorms will be possible late this afternoon/evening and into the overnight hours due the broad, synoptic lift from the low and the very moist environment in place.
558 PM CDT Tue Aug 23 2022 (This evening through Wednesday) A mid-level trough along with a moist airmass over portions of the fa and heating will continue chances for scattered showers and some storms through sunset across portions of central and southern OK and western north TX.
515 PM PDT Tue Aug 23 2022 Temperatures will be a couple degrees warmer today and again on Wednesday. Highs on Wednesday will be as much as 10 degrees above average for this time of year with widespread triple digit heat across the lower elevations.
Temperatures will be warmer but remain a bit below normal during the work week.
943 PM EDT Tue Aug 23 2022 A weak high pressure ridge builds from the Upper Midwest through Wednesday night.
625 PM CDT Tue Aug 23 2022 (This evening through Wednesday) Widespread showers and thunderstorms continue across the region this afternoon in response to a stubborn broad upper level trof across the southern U.
Meanwhile, a closed low apparent in the water vapor imagery in the Pacific Northwest is setting up to impact our weather this weekend. Warm advection clouds are developing across the region this morning as 850mb flow becomes westerly pushing warmer temps into the area.
(Today through Thursday afternoon) Upper ridge today extends from the Atlantic, across the southwestern half of TX, northward across the 4 Corners region. A low sits over WA and a broad trough is located over the NE States. Should be a little warmer today in the mid to upper 80s but still several degrees below normal.
Along and just north of the front, dewpoints were in the low 70s, but were in the low to mid 60s across the Big Country and Concho Valley. Overnight, some additional clouds may re-develop, with lows generally in the low 70s.
The low level focus, a warm front across the Sandhills, is very strong in the RAP model, but the models are building an h700mb ridge across wrn Nebraska north into srn SD and it is for this reason, the models are fairly spartan with POPs. The temperature forecast today and Thursday leans on the RAP and HRRR models, via the short term model blend for highs in the low to mid 90s across swrn Nebraska-south of the cold front. Lows tonight use the cooler guidance blend. The low temperature forecast is cooler than the NBM 50th percentile. The high temperatures predicted today and Thursday are close to the NBM 50th across the south, but slightly cooler north of the cold front.
300 AM EDT Wed Aug 24 2022 High pressure across the Ohio Valley will keep weather conditions quite pleasant for late August. With another nocturnal inversion expected to develop, patchy fog will be possible again, but mostly in the valleys as temps cool into the low 60s.
1226 AM CDT Wed Aug 24 2022 The weather across Middle Tennessee remains amazingly quiet as high pressure builds in from the north and a dry air mass blankets the mid state.
Otherwise, mainly quiet conditions are expected through the near term period as high pressure builds into the region. Dry conditions continue Wednesday night as a stable air mass will be in place as a ridge remains in control. Thursday night a nearly zonal pattern aloft will slowly shift into a trough as low pressure over eastern Canada moves a disturbance to the Ohio river valley.
Another mostly sunny day is expected with temperatures a couple degrees warmer than yesterday.
338 AM EDT Wed Aug 24 2022 A high pressure system will continue to bring sunny to mostly sunny skies and dry conditions to the Ohio Valley through Thursday.
Similar conditions are anticipated Thursday, although temperatures will be slightly warmer along with less coverage of showers and storms anticipated as higher heights nudge in from the west. /Issued 243 PM CDT Tue Aug 23 2022/ /Wednesday Night Onward/ By the latter half of the work week, the upper level high will be centered well to our west as an upper level trough deepens to the east.
1157 PM EDT Tue Aug 23 2022 Surface based ridging with perpetual dry northwest flow will result in SKC overnight and light westerly or variable flow at less than 5 knots. Little change to air mass for Wednesday under continued surface ridging.
350 AM EDT Wed Aug 24 2022 Low pressure system which brought rain to our region the last couple days finally pushes east of the region and showers will come to an end by this afternoon.
A cold front remains stalled to the north with a very moist air mass in place south of the boundary. With the weak convergence and upper divergence in place and the high moisture content, high rain chances are anticipated.
Clouds linger around the area throughout the day, with chances for isolated showers and storms possible this afternoon and evening as a trough works its way east of the valley. Temperatures will be on the cooler side, with most locations remaining in the low to mid 70s this afternoon. Cooler temperatures follow Thursday morning, with morning lows in the mid 40s near the International Border and lower 60s towards west central MN.
A weak cold front moves through Northern Nebraska Thursday cooling temperatures into the low to mid 80s. Temperatures south of the front, across southwest Nebraska, will remain in the low 90s for highs Thursday.
300 AM EDT Wed Aug 24 2022 Low pressure will continue to slowly cross the North Country tonight and eventually east of our region on Wednesday.
1248 AM EDT Wed Aug 24 2022 A weak high pressure ridge builds from the Upper Midwest through Wednesday night.
05z observations are showing weak northwest flow aloft with a ridge over the Rockies and at the surface a large area of high pressure in the central plains. The quiet weather pattern continues today with relatively light winds from the surface through 500 mb and the large area of high pressure staying in place. 850 mb temperatures will be slightly warmer in the 23-25 (C) range and highs should get back into the lower 90s. Lows will be in the lower to mid 60s.
1213 AM CDT Wed Aug 24 2022 (This evening through Wednesday night) Slightly positive tilted ridge over the Four Corners area with a weak positive tilted trough over the Southern High Plains continues today. We will transition to a more northerly flow over the Panhandles on Wednesday as the ridge shifts further east and kicks out the trough that was over the Southern High Plains.
Discussion: High pressure centered to our north and northwest will edge east and continue to extend into our area for the period.
400 AM EDT Wed Aug 24 2022 Upper level trough will remain over the eastern U. through the work week then weaken with ridging building in from the east over the weekend. Meanwhile near the surface, ridging will continue to stretch from well out in the Atlantic Ocean west southwest across the area with the low level east to southeast flow (Sea Breeze Regime 6) persisting. Also, with the moisture increasing we'll see more clouds and therefore high temperatures after today will be mostly around 90 to the lower 90s, with no record setting temperatures anticipated.
Thursday looks dry and mild as a cooler/drier airmass advects south into the forecast area.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 88 70 85 70 87 / 20 20 60 30 50 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 88 68 86 68 88 / 10 10 40 20 40 Oak Ridge, TN 88 67 86 68 88 / 0 10 20 20 40 Tri Cities Airport, TN 86 65 85 64 87 / 10 10 20 10 40.
The highest precipitation chances are likely to be over the southern Piedmont and Sandhills, closer to the deeper moisture and around 500- 800 J/kg of CAPE. In addition, MLCAPE increases to between 1000-1500 J/kg and a weak surface cold front appears to move in late Sat-Sun. it will also feel more humid with dewpoints rising into the lower 70s. Sun-Tue: While diurnal showers/storms will continue to be in the forecast, most ensemble solutions indicate that heights will rise as a ridge over the western Atlantic shifts west to encompass the southeast US. Another cold front may approach late in the period by Wed but this is too far out to have enough confidence.
hi-res, convective models have activity and storm coverage increasing in response to a strengthening high pressure system migrating towards the Four Corners region. Also, this positioning of the high will result in weaker storm motions and less shear.
Forecast soundings show the low level winds increase for parts of MN, but remain lighter farther east, but do increase around 12Z.
Over the period we'll experience ridging late Thursday afternoon into Thursday evening in advance of the nearing low to our northwest. It will only slowly shift east into far southeastern SD and southern MN by midday Wednesday as cooler air sinks in from the north. The low will continue across IA Wednesday night as a large ridge of high pressure moves in from Canada.
This subtle day over day warming of the low levels is expected to continue into the end of the week, so will generally follow a modified persistence approach to daytime highs.
Otherwise, mainly quiet conditions are expected through the near term period as high pressure builds into the region.
252 AM CDT Wed Aug 24 2022 07Z water vapor imagery showed the forecast area remaining between upper level ridging over the southwest and the mean westerlies across central Canada and into the Great Lakes region. A cutoff upper low was noted over WA. The surface pattern is similar in that weak high pressure continued to ridge into the central plains from the Upper Midwest while low pressure was noted over the southern and northern plains. 1000-500MB thicknesses and 850MB temps trend warmer from observed values yesterday. So temperatures are forecast to be a degree or two warmer than yesterday as a result.
(Today through Thursday) Early this Wednesday morning, quiet wx continued across Middle Tennessee under the control of dry high pressure from the north. High pressure will keep most of Middle Tennessee rain-free today, but the front lurking just south of our area will allow a few showers or storms to creep up into our far southern counties. (Thursday Night through next Wednesday) The weekend will bring warmer temps and slightly higher humidity levels as southerly flow becomes established across the area.
Upper level west to northwest flow will prevail across the Great Lakes as broad troughing extends south from Hudson Bay.
117 AM EDT Wed Aug 24 2022 High pressure over the region will result in generally dry weather and near seasonal temperatures today. Low pressure crossing the Upper Mid-West into the Great Lakes is expected to bring increasing chances for showers and storms by the weekend. Some storms possible mainly along southern Blue Ridge.
224 AM EDT Wed Aug 24 2022 As an upper level disturbance moves away from the region tonight, high pressure will then take over and provide generally rain free weather through Thursday.
Coupled with afternoon instability and a passing trough there will be a the chance of showers and thunderstorms Wednesday across Baker county and w-central Idaho, to include the western Magic Valley. An upper low to the north and an upper high to the south will maintain the dry west-southwest flow aloft through Wednesday morning. Meanwhile, moisture and instability in proximity to the upper low to our north will bring a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms from Baker County to the West Central Mountains Wednesday afternoon and evening. The upper low will move slowly eastward and change the flow back to a drier/stable westerly component on Thursday.
High cloud cover was considerably less than 24 hours ago, but surface pressure gradient was slightly stronger, either side of an inverted pressure trof extending northeast from the Arklamiss. The position of a weak cold front/pressure trof may tend to focus more dense fog potential a further north than late tonight, along and just north of the I-40 corridor. /issued 327 PM CDT Tue Aug 23 2022/ The mid-level trough over the Arklatex hasn't moved much today but has provided modest forcing for ascent over the Mid-South. Aloft, the mid-level trough is forecast to remain quasi-stationary to our west, providing periods of enhanced lift as perturbations in the flow rotate around the low.
(Today through Thursday) Early this morning through Thursday, a lower level convergence zone, residual outflow boundaries, and weak troughing aloft linger over our area along with slightly above seasonal normal moisture levels (PWs) of 1. The highest PWs are along and south of US 90 near the convergence zone and expect the heaviest rains will focus there.
Rain showers and thunderstorms will continue through Wednesday as the low pressure system in the southern Midwest moves east, and will come to an end in northwest Wisconsin Thursday morning.
Consistent WNW flow in the lower levels of the atmosphere keeps the seabreeze pinned closer to the coast, with this feature already starting to cause isolated convection in parts of Williamsburg and Georgetown Counties in SC. Lows tonight in the lower 70s. High pressure aloft and at the surface over the upper Midwest starts to slide into the Ohio River Valley. Come late Thursday an area of mid-level low pressure will move into the area from the SW, bringing Gulf moisture along with it.
101 AM EDT Wed Aug 24 2022 Weak high pressure will build across our region tonight and remain across the area through Thursday.
Along and north of this trough. dewpoints are in the low 50s. South of the trough. Have been seeing isolated convection developing along this trough that have been getting into northern Niobrara County into the northern Panhandle. Trough does shift a little further south and southwest through the day today, GFS layered PWATS do increase across our southern areas today.
Lows will range from the low 40's in the west to mid/upper 50's elsewhere, some higher elevations may even drop into the upper 30's.
Highs will be in the upper 80s with overnight lows in the low to mid 60s. Thursday afternoon and evening may end up seeing some isolate showers or thunderstorms over portions of western Kentucky as an inverted trough noses into the area along with some deeper moisture. Highs will trend a bit warmer along with humidity values. The medium range models indicated that the ridging aloft will remain quite prominent through Sat evening just ahead of a return to southwesterly flow aloft, and a developing southerly low level moist flow.
Expect this precipitation to gradually wane this morning as the low level jet weakens. With the low arriving a bit later in the day, bumped up the high temperatures up a couple of degrees warmer than the NBM. On Thursday, the low pressure area moves slowly away from the area. 00z models are continuing to show that a trough will move into the area.
At the surface, a weak Piedmont trough is expected to be in place. The models have continued a trend of a weaker trough passage limiting convection chances to 20-30 POP during peak heating. In addition, MLCAPE increases to between 1000-1500 J/kg and a weak surface cold front appears to move in late Sat-Sun. it will also feel more humid with dewpoints rising into the lower 70s. Sun-Tue: While diurnal showers/storms will continue to be in the forecast, most ensemble solutions indicate that heights will rise as a ridge over the western Atlantic shifts west to encompass the southeast US. Another cold front may approach late in the period by Wed but this is too far out to have enough confidence.
259 AM EDT Wed Aug 24 2022 High pressure over the region will result in generally dry weather and near seasonal temperatures today. Low pressure crossing the Upper Mid-West into the Great Lakes is expected to bring increasing chances for showers and storms by the weekend. High pressure will be situated over the central Appalachians. A mainly dry airmass aloft, although the low levels may see enough moisture creeping northward for a few showers/storms to pop this afternoon. Tonight, 5h trough over the Gulf Coast states deepens a bit, so enough moisture may override the front allow for an small threat of showers overnight along the southern Blue Ridge. Skies will become cloudier along/south of the VA/NC border tonight, and lows will be slightly warmer in the mid 60s, with lower 60s in the mountains.