Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATING SEVERAL WEAK IMPULSES PROPAGATING THROUGH MID LEVEL RIDGE. WARMER COLUMN AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES UP. UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST THURSDAY PUTTING FA IN MID LEVEL SW FLOW. BASED ON FAVORABLE CONVERGENCE LOCATION AND CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 90S IT LOOKS LIKE ANY TSRA SHOULD HOLD OFF ACROSS THE NW FA UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. THERMAL RIDGE AXIS REMAINS JUST TO OUR WEST BUT WILL STILL BE A WARM DAY WITH ALL AREAS SEEING ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.
500 MB RIDGING WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS STATES THROUGH TODAY AND THURS. DEEPER LAYER TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN POOLED ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE RIDGE AXIS OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL MEX. THIS MOISTURE WILL PUSH NORTH AND WEST AROUND THE EDGE OF THE RIDGE AND WILL STAY CLEAR OF DEEP SOUTH TX. WITH THE RIDGE AXIS STAYING IN PLACE EXPECT FAIRLY STATUS QUO TEMPS THROUGH THURS. THE ECMWF HAS A SLIGHT WARMER BIAS FOR THE MFE AREA VERSUS THE MAV AND MET NUMBERS. KBRO RADAR SHOWS A FEW MARINE SHOWERS PUSHING NORTH INTO THE LOWER TX GULF WATERS.
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN WISCONSIN MOVES INTO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT. MEANWHILE A WEAK UPPER RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS STRENGTHENS LATER TONIGHT AS AN UPSTREAM TROUGH REACHES THE WEST COAST OF THE U. A WEAK 850 MB RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON.
1239 PM CDT WED JUL 22 2015 THE SHORT TERM WILL TRANSITION FROM WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER CONDITIONS TO INCREASING MOISTURE AND SOUTHERLY FLOW. MUCH OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION CAMS WERE DOING A POOR JOB DEPICTING THE CURRENT SHOWERS/STORMS WITH THE OPERATIONAL MODELS DOING A BIT BETTER JOB. IT SHOULD BE EVEN WARMER THURSDAY WITH MOST AREAS SEEING HIGHS IN THE 80S.
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY AND MOVE MORE WESTWARD TONIGHT AND THURSDAY LEAVING US WITH MORE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. COUNTIES AND PARISHES ON THE RIDGE SIDE OF THE FLOW WILL MOST LIKELY SEE HEAT INDICES ABOVE 100 THOUGH AND QUITE POSSIBLY 105+.
300 PM CDT WED JUL 22 2015 18Z/1PM SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES. MAIN SHORT-TERM QUESTION WILL BE WHETHER OR NOT ANY SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ALONG THE FRONT WILL REACH THE FAR SOUTHERN KILX CWA LATE TONIGHT.
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE PANHANDLES FROM THE SOUTH WILL LEAD TO WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SUPPRESSION OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE LATE IN THE PERIOD COULD BRING INCREASING RAIN CHANCES TO THE AREA AND THERE MAY BE ANOTHER COLD FRONT IMPACTING THE AREA TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AND BEYOND.
SUBTLE EMBEDDED S/WV IMPULSE OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA MOVING THROUGH A MID LEVEL RIDGE PARKED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO DEVELOP FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
158 PM EDT WED JUL 22 2015 MOSTLY DRY HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE WEEKEND. ALLOWING CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE INTO OUR REGION. AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE WITH ABNORMALLY DRY AND COOLER AIR FOR MID SUMMER WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THURSDAY. LOOK FOR LOWS TONIGHT DIPPING TO JUST BELOW 60 AND HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.
BUT AS THE UPPER RIDGE SLOWLY BUILDS BACK IN TOMORROW A MORE NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST STORM TRAJECTORY IS EXPECTED.
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTER EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR LOCAL FLOODING, HAIL AND STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EASTWARD BY 3 PM TO ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 395. JCM LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE EASTERN SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA WITH MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.
245 PM EDT WED JUL 22 2015 WEAK LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY SUPPORTING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA.
250 PM EDT WED JUL 22 2015 DEEP LAYER RIDGING CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS. WITH THE RIDGE AXIS REMAINING OVERHEAD. FOR SHOWERS ALONG THE LOWER AND MIDDLE KEYS. CONTINUED PRESENCE OF RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES LOW.
305 PM EDT WED JUL 22 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES WILL DOMINATE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST OVER THE WEEKEND.
IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE A BIT WARMER THAN NORMAL WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S AND MORNING LOWS IN THE UPPER 70S.
A weak surface boundary draped along the KY/TN line will drift northward tonight into Thursday as an upper trof slides in from the northwest. Low temperatures tonight will be in the 60s with highs Thursday in the lower and middle 80s.
616 PM EDT WED JUL 22 2015 HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
OTHERWISE THE DAY IS LOOKING WARMER WITH TEMPS ON THE INCREASE.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN U. AND THOUGH CU HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND STREAMED EAST. AND INTO THE 70S FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS. MODELS INDICATE THAT THE HIGH PRES RIDGE ALOFT WILL AMPLIFY SLIGHTLY OVER CO AND THE TX/OK PANHANDLES. TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO BE WARMER TOMORROW. AND 80S FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS.
200 PM EDT WED JUL 22 2015 DRY WEATHER AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE UPPER OHIO REGION. SCATTERED CUMULUS WILL FOLLOW THE DIURNAL CYCLE WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION.
1247 PM CDT WED JUL 22 2015 HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH TO THE EAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY.
MOST AREAS WILL STAY DRY BUT CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP TEMPERATURES COOLER INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.
LIKE PATTERN AS THE EAST COAST TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE AND CONVECTION FIRES IN A FAMILIAR PATTERN IN THE MEAN UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW! THE OLD PRE-FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LAY ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA WITH EARLY CONVECTION ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE NWS JACKSONVILLE AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY. ELSEWHERE TEMPS WILL TOP OUT IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S ON THURSDAY.
WITH 500 MB RIDGING ENTRENCHED OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. AND SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE. THE ECMWF HAS A SLIGHTLY WARMER BIAS FOR THE MFE AREA VERSUS THE MAV AND MET NUMBERS.
312 PM CDT WED JUL 22 2015 STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS MOST OF TEXAS. VERY FEW IF ANY SHOWERS EXPECTED TOMORROW AS RIDGING INFLUENCE STRENGTHENS.
A DRIER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE REGION WILL BRING ONLY A FEW MOUNTAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA THIS WEEK. WITH HIGHS APPROACHING THE 110 DEGREE MARK FOR SOME LOCALES ON THE LOWER DESERTS BY THE WEEKEND. ONCE AGAIN INCREASING THE THREAT OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE LOWER DESERTS. LOW PRESSURE TROFFING ALONG THE WEST COAST HAS SET UP A RELATIVELY DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INTO SERN CA AND ARIZONA. THE MOISTURE WILL ALSO LEAD TO SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF PHOENIX. AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW/850-700MB GRADUALLY BECOMES MORE SOUTHERLY.
308 PM CDT WED JUL 22 2015 UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS BACK IN OVER TEXAS BY TOMORROW.
THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE NORTHWESTERN ON THURSDAY AS A RIDGE BEGINS TO AMPLIFY ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES.
THERE IS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER SASKATCHEWAN WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT IS A LEE TROF EXTENDING THROUGH EASTERN WYOMING. WITH THE LEE TROF SWINGING THOUGH WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTHEASTERN WYOMING. TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL BE RATHER WARM WITH READINGS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S. WESTERN TROF OPENS UP AND LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.
CONTINUED DRYING ON THURSDAY AS THE RIDGE ALOFT MOVES EAST OF COLORADO WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
THE UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER TX HAS ALSO LIMITED CLOUD OVER OVER THE GULF FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS.
A TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY WHICH WILL INCREASE SOUTHWEST FLOW BRINGING IN REMNANT TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM DELORES INTO IDAHO. ACTIVITY WILL TAPER OFF DURING THE EVENING INTO TOMORROW MORNING BUT WILL PICK UP AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
QUIET WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH BROAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES MIGRATING SLOWLY EASTWARD.
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. GENERALLY REACHING THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MIDWEST EARLY THIS MORNING WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA THRU THE DAY. IN THE MEANTIME, HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK INTO THE REGION FOR THE SHORT TERM BRINGING A DRIER FORECAST AND A LESS MUGGY AIRMASS. BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE CONUS STARTING TO AMPLIFY A BIT TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. MIDWEST GETTING INTO THE RIDGE WITH LITTLE FLOW ALOFT AS A QUICK IMPULSE RIPPLES OVER THE RIDGE AND DIVES INTO THE MID MISS RIVER VALLEY WED NIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY. AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE CONUS WITH THE AXIS DRIFTING OVER THE MIDWEST, TEMPS WARM INTO THE WEEKEND.
TWO EMBEDDED S/WV IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH THE MID LEVEL RIDGE TRIGGERING CONVECTION THIS MORNING ACROSS NORTHEASTERN MONTANA AND NORTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. A WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY AS WAA CONTINUES AND WE BECOME FULLY ENTRENCHED IN THE WARM SECTOR.
149 PM EDT WED JUL 22 2015 MOSTLY DRY HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE WEEKEND. ALLOWING CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE INTO OUR REGION. AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE WITH ABNORMALLY DRY AND COOLER AIR FOR MID SUMMER WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THURSDAY. LOOK FOR LOWS TONIGHT DIPPING TO JUST BELOW 60 AND HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.
304 PM EDT WED JUL 22 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
SURFACE TEMPERATURES BARELY REACH FREEZING. AS THE LOW LIFTS TO OUR NE OVERNIGHT. EVEN IF TEMPS ARE SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING.
THE RIDGE BUILDS INTO EASTERN UTAH BY TUESDAY MORNING.
418 PM CST MON FEB 15 2016 COLD FRONT NOW EXTENDS FM LOW PRES CNTRD OVER CNTL MS SWWD INTO SW LA. DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION AS HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FM THE WEST. EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA NORTH OF I-10. UPR LVL RIDGING TO THE WEST AND A TROF TO THE EAST WILL KEEP THE REGION UNDER NWLY FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE WEEK.
233 PM PST MON FEB 15 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING DRY WEATHER TO THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR THROUGH TUESDAY WITH PATCHY NIGHT AND MORNING FOG IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY.
1059 PM EST MON FEB 15 2016 LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN ALABAMA WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE THE AREA TUESDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES FROM THE WEST TUESDAY NIGHT.
THE BALANCE OF THE FORECAST IS GOING TO SEE SOME IN AND OUT SMALL AREAS OF HIGH PRESSURE.
FOR LATER TONIGHT A MODERATE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH SKIES CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST BY EARLY TUE MORNING. AS FOR TEMPS WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE COOLER MAV GUIDANCE FOR TONIGHT DUE TO LIGHTER WINDS OR LESS MIXING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT COMBINED WITH CLEARING SKIES FROM WEST TO EAST BEFORE SUNRISE TUE. FOR TUE WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE WARMER MAV GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS DUE TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS AND A MILD SOUTHWEST FLOW NEAR THE SURFACE.
TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. IN THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. AN ATLANTIC RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL FLORIDA WILL RETREAT EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS THIS PORTION OF OUR CWA WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EASTWARD ALONG A COLD FRONT. BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER CONTINUE TO ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REACH INTO THE LOWER 70S ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES (PIKE.
Another upper level trough embedded in the northwesterly flow aloft across western SD will dig southeast into western MO by 12Z TUE. Tuesday, The upper trough will dig southeast into the mid and lower MS river valley. Northwest winds will increase behind a surface cold front that will move southeast across the CWA during the early morning hours. The resulting low-level CAA will keep temperatures a few degrees cooler on Tuesday afternoon with highs in the mid 40s in extreme northeast KS to mid 50s across the southwest counties.
ALI AND CRP WILL BE ON THE BORDER ON WHETHER THIS HIGHER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL REACH THIS AREA FOR DENSE FOG TO FORM.
EXPECT EVEN WARMER AIR TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AND WARMER TEMPS WILL MAKE P TYPE A PROBLEM.
/ISSUED 347 PM CST MON FEB 15 2016/ LATEST 21Z SFC ANALYSIS HAS COLD FRONT BASICALLY AT THE UPPER TEXAS COAST. WATER VAPOR AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS FROM 12Z SHOW A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST. THIS SHORT WAVE TROUGH SHOULD DROP INTO THE MAIN TROUGH TOMORROW AS IT PUSHES INTO THE TENNIS'SVALLEY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING NOW OVER THE PACIFIC COAST SHOULD START TO MOVE EAST TOMORROW.
540 PM CST MON FEB 15 2016 Fog and much of the low cloud cover finally cleared out of the area by early this afternoon, giving way to partly sunny skies for most. Tuesday should feature a pretty substantial temperature gradient over the region, as lingering cloud cover over the eastern Ozarks and central Missouri keeps temperatures in the low to mid 40s.
808 PM MST MON FEB 15 2016 NORTHWEST WINDS ARE INCREASING THIS EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE FORECAST AREA. SO FAR THE HIGHEST WIND GUSTS HAVE BEEN UP TO 47 MPH FOR A FEW MINUTES AT WFO UNR AS THE SHOWERS MOVED THROUGH AND AIDED MIXING. DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. ANOTHER WEAK WAVE WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT THROUGH MUCH OF THE CWA AS WESTERLY WINDS BECOME BREEZY. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S ACROSS CENTRAL SD TO THE LOWER 50S FARTHER WEST.
BUT WITH WINDS OVER THE WESTERN SECTIONS TURNING WEST/SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE SURFACE THROUGH DEVELOPING QUICKLY ALONG THE FRONT RANGE AS THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES BEGINS MOVING EAST. THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA COULD SEE TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO OR A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY. DRY WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED TO DOMINATE AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BLOCKS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER SYSTEMS FROM REACHING THE HIGH PLAINS.
WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING TONIGHT IN THAT AREA. RAIN CONTINUING ACROSS A GOOD PART OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE THIS EVENING WILL GRADUALLY PULL EAST BUT MID AND UPPER TROUGH STILL LAYING BACK TO OUR WEST AND ALIGNED ALONG MISSISSIPPI RIVER AT 00Z. RAIN WILL TAPER OFF AS TROUGH PASSES THROUGH TONIGHT BUT LOOK FOR DENSE FOG IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
WARM-FRONTAL HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE OVER OUR AREA THIS LEAVING OUR AREA IN THE WARM SECTOR BETWEEN THE DEPARTING WARM FRONT AND THE NEXT COLD FRONT WHICH IS STILL IN THE ERN PACIFIC.
/ISSUED 306 PM CST MON FEB 15 2016/ Unseasonably warm day well under way across eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas even as a surface trof moves out of eastern Oklahoma and into western Arkansas.
MODELS ARE SHOWING TEMPERATURE PROFILES DIPPING NEAR FREEZING WHILE THERE IS STILL SOME PRECIP LEFT OVER THE PLATEAU.
503 PM PST MON FEB 15 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING DRY WEATHER TO THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR THROUGH TUESDAY WITH PATCHY NIGHT AND MORNING FOG IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY.
LOW LEVELS REMAIN MOIST AND WITH TEMPS HOVERING AT OR JUST ABOVE FREEZING TODAY. MAIN FOCUS WILL BE ON THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING. BUT COULD CERTAINLY SEE A COUPLE HOURS WORTH OF SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN FROM THE JAMES VALLEY/NORTH CENTRAL SD OVER TO THE WATERTOWN REGION BEFORE THINGS TURN TO ALL SNOW. NOTHING IS SHOWING PROLONGED PERIODS OF FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET. IF PRECIP RATES BECOME A BIT MORE MODERATE WITH ANY FALLING FREEZING RAIN. NEXT WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND IS WEAKER THAN WHAT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THIS EVENING.
AS THE LOW LIFTS TO OUR NE OVERNIGHT. EVEN IF TEMPS ARE SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING.
Model soundings originally show saturation in the snow growth zone but with a deep layer of just above freezing temperatures within the lowest 3-4kft of the atmosphere. This leads to rain at the onset of the event during the early morning hours however, before sunset, the warm nose cools and there is only a very shallow layer of near freezing temperatures with ice crystals still in the snow growth zone.
CAPE WIND PROFILERS SHOW THE LOW LEVEL FLOW HAS INCREASED THIS EVENING TO 35-40 KNOTS BUT THE FLOW IS VEERING AROUND TO THE SOUTH. PSG OF THE COLD FRONT TUE AFTN WL BRING AN END TO RAINFALL CHCS WITH GRADUAL CLEARING DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.
AREAS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE CAN NOT BE RULED OUT WITH ELEVATED DEW POINTS. AREAS OF FOG WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT AS THE REGION REMAINS SITUATED IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF APPROACHING CANADIAN COLD FRONT.
Rain should end from west to east by daybreak with the passage of a cold front.
NO FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET REPORTED YET WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWN ON WEBCAMS. THE ABR SOUNDING THIS EVENING SHOWED A GOOD WARM LAYER OFF THE SURFACE WITH BELOW FREEZING SURFACE TEMPERATURES. LOW LEVELS REMAIN MOIST AND WITH TEMPS HOVERING AT OR JUST ABOVE FREEZING TODAY. MAIN FOCUS WILL BE ON THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING. BUT COULD CERTAINLY SEE A COUPLE HOURS WORTH OF SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN FROM THE JAMES VALLEY/NORTH CENTRAL SD OVER TO THE WATERTOWN REGION BEFORE THINGS TURN TO ALL SNOW. NOTHING IS SHOWING PROLONGED PERIODS OF FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET. IF PRECIP RATES BECOME A BIT MORE MODERATE WITH ANY FALLING FREEZING RAIN. NEXT WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND IS WEAKER THAN WHAT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THIS EVENING.
531 PM EST MON FEB 15 2016 A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT AS TEMPERATURES RISE THROUGH MORNING. LOW PRESSURE IN THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WILL LIFT INTO THE WESTERN CAROLINAS LATE TONIGHT. DRYING WILL OCCUR TUESDAY AS THE LOW LIFTS NORTHWARD AND FARTHER AWAY FROM THE AREA. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RISE ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS THAT AREA BY EARLY THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE EXPECT MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN AT TIMES IN A BAND OF PRECIPITATION ALONG AND AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT DURING THE 03Z-10Z TIME FRAME TO CROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS AROUND 0. UPPER TROUGH QUICKLY EXITS THE REGION TO THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY MORNING WITH SKIES CLEARING FROM THE WEST AS UPPER FLOW BECOMES ZONAL AND DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION.
WITH THE SOUTHERN PORTION BECOMING A CLOSED LOW. SNOW AMOUNTS WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE MINIMAL WITH AROUND AN INCH IN THE HIGH POP AREAS WITH A HALF INCH OR LESS ELSEWHERE. STILL EXPECT HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 20S NEAR KAXN TO THE LOWER 30S IN THE TWIN CITIES AS WELL AS AREAS TO THE EAST AND SOUTH.
Rain will continue to affect much of the Northern Rockies today, with snow confined to the highest terrain.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY WESTERN STATES UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT INTO THE PLAINS AND FLATTEN THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND TO PROVIDE A MILD STRETCH OF WEATHER. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL BE DEPARTING TUESDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT SLIDES SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN SETTLE INTO THE AREA MID WEEK FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. TIMING ISSUES WITH SHORT WAVE TROUGHS PRODUCING MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH AMOUNT OF WARMING AND PCPN TRENDS.
WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWARD TOWARD SW ALABAMA. AND WARM FRONT TO COASTAL S CAROLINA. LOTS OF LIGHTNING WAS NOTED IN THIS SYSTEM'S WARMER SECTOR. A WAKE LOW EFFECT PER THE LOW DEEPENING OCCURRED EARLIER. IF THE LOW CLOUDS REACH THE GROUND. THE PRIMARY IMPACTS ARE MAINLY CAUSED BY MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOW CIGS AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSES THE REGION. WITH THE LOW CIGS, FOG FORMATION MAY ALSO LOWER VIS/CIG BELOW IFR AND SHORT TERM UPDATES TO TAF MAY OCCUR IF THE LOW VIS/CIG MATERIALIZES BTWN 16/04Z-16/14Z.
A WEAK COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED INTO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS SOUTHEAST INTO THE GULF WATERS SOUTHEAST WIND RETURNS TO THE VALLEY VERY QUICKLY TUE AFTERNOON RETURNING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LAYER PULLING N ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. THE GRADIENT GRADUALLY STRENGTHENS AS HIGH PRESSURE TAKES CONTROL OF THE SOUTHEAST AND MOST OF THE GULF WATERS KEEPING SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS THROUGH THE NIGHT.
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A WAVE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO ALL TERMINALS BY 12Z TUES. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PERSIST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE WATERS BY LATE TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN SETTLE IN OVER THE WATERS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING IN MOST AREAS THROUGH 06Z PRECIP SHOULD BE LIQUID DURING THAT TIME THEN CHANGE OVER TO SNOW OR A RAIN SNOW MIX NORTH TO SOUTH AS TEMPERATURES COOL ALOFT AND SYSTEM TRACKS TO THE SOUTHEAST. COOLER AIR FOLLOWS BEHIND THE SYSTEM ON TUESDAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION.
217 PM PST MON FEB 15 2016 HIGH PRESSURE AND OFFSHORE WINDS WILL BRING RECORD HEAT TO THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY.
/ISSUED 418 PM CST MON FEB 15 2016/ COLD FRONT NOW EXTENDS FM LOW PRES CNTRD OVER CNTL MS SWWD INTO SW LA. DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION AS HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FM THE WEST. EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA NORTH OF I-10. UPR LVL RIDGING TO THE WEST AND A TROF TO THE EAST WILL KEEP THE REGION UNDER NWLY FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE WEEK.
744 PM EST MON FEB 15 2016 LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF STATES WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE THE AREA TUESDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES FROM THE WEST TUESDAY NIGHT.
521 PM EST MON FEB 15 2016 LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH WILL TRACK ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY OVERNIGHT.
406 PM PST MON FEB 15 2016 UPDATED AVIATION SECTION HIGH PRESSURE AND OFFSHORE WINDS WILL BRING RECORD HEAT TO THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY.
SKIES HAVE CLEARED OVER ALL BUT OUR ERN TAF SITES IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT WHICH HAS SHIFTED WELL EAST OF THE REGION. MOIST SOILS FROM MORNING RAINFALL COMBINED WITH THE LOW LEVEL PROFILES SUPPORT AT LEAST PATCHY FOG DESPITE DRIER AIR MASS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. THE BALANCE OF THE FORECAST IS GOING TO SEE SOME IN AND OUT SMALL AREAS OF HIGH PRESSURE.
946 PM CST MON FEB 15 2016 DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER INTO THE REGION THIS EVENING BEHIND TODAY/S COLD FRONT. EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS TO RANGE FROM THE LOW 40S OVER THE NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES TO LOW 50S ALONG THE COAST UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. /ISSUED 347 PM CST MON FEB 15 2016/ LATEST 21Z SFC ANALYSIS HAS COLD FRONT BASICALLY AT THE UPPER TEXAS COAST. WATER VAPOR AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS FROM 12Z SHOW A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST. THIS SHORT WAVE TROUGH SHOULD DROP INTO THE MAIN TROUGH TOMORROW AS IT PUSHES INTO THE TENNIS'SVALLEY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING NOW OVER THE PACIFIC COAST SHOULD START TO MOVE EAST TOMORROW.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.
600 PM EST MON FEB 15 2016 LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH WILL TRACK ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY OVERNIGHT.
A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL MAINTAIN UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY.
30 /ISSUED 550 PM CST MON FEB 15 2016/ VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE IN WAKE OF OUR DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH DRY NW FLOW ALOFT AND OCCASIONAL ROUNDS OF CIRRUS AND CIRROSTRATUS THROUGH TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE AREA BY MIDDAY TUESDAY WITH GUSTY NNW WINDS 15-20 KTS. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRIEFLY RETURN TO THE REGION TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS NORTH TEXAS TUESDAY AFTERNOON.