Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
With the help of a flat Atlantic high pressure ridge nudging in across the Northwest Bahamas, the drier mid-level air to our east will continue to slowly creep in.
125 PM PDT Tue Sep 15 2020 High pressure over the southwest states will continue the warming trend through the middle of the week.
1118 AM MDT Tue Sep 15 2020 Northwesterly flow aloft will develop over the region today and will continue through much of the rest of the week as an upper ridge remains over the western CONUS.
315 PM CDT Tue Sep 15 2020 Another warmer than average day across the area, with temperatures largely in the 80s and breezy southerly winds. Change is coming through, with a cold front expected to move into the area later this afternoon through Wednesday. Cooler air filters in behind the front, with highs on Wednesday in the upper 60s to near 80, with the cooler highs mostly along/north of I-90. Cooler air will continue into the end of the week.
Observations, including DIA show it to be 2-3 degrees warmer right now than it was yesterday, so will up the highs a tad for this afternoon. The strong upper level ridge will remain parked over the region through tonight. Flow aloft turns a little more northerly today as the ridge retrogrades slightly, and that will allow for more smoke/haze to infiltrate the area from the north through this afternoon and tonight. HRRR would indicate most of this stays aloft today, and then may settle toward the surface late tonight or Wednesday behind a weak cold front. Locations along the Front Range will be several degrees warmer again with a light downslope component. Upper level ridging will continue to dominate weather across Colorado through the end of the week.
Western ridge aloft and eastern CONUS trof will only change slightly through Wednesday night.
1221 PM EDT Tue Sep 15 2020 High pressure directly overhead this morning will control our weather for the next couple of days.
Expect near to slightly above normal temperatures today and Wednesday with highs in the generally in the lower 80s, cooling by a good 10 degrees by late in the week after a dry cold front passes through the area. 1026 mb high pressure across the southern Great Lakes was ridging sw across central IL/MO late this morning and will remain anchored over the area through tonight. Otherwise, an elongated ridge of high pressure extending westward from the northeast US will keep skies mostly sunny with a moderate temperature air mass resulting in highs near 80. Expect lows tonight in the low to mid 50s in clear skies.
Smoke is going to be an issue as well as high pressure moves slightly west allowing more smoke to move into the area. High pressure over western Colorado and northwestern Wyoming this afternoon. A dry cold front lays across northeastern Wyoming up into west central Montana. Winds ease late afternoon into the evening hours as high pressure begins to slowly shift west. Much cooler tomorrow with afternoon highs roughly 10-12 degrees cooler out over the Panhandle for Wednesdays highs.
Hires guidance continues to paint the Brazos Vally around the CLL terminal with the higher chances & areal coverage in the 19-22z time frame.
334 PM EDT Tue Sep 15 2020 High pressure keeps conditions dry, with temperatures trending warmer on Wednesday.
The addition of a weak upper trough axis extending from West Texas into the Ozarks should result in better coverage of diurnal convection Wednesday afternoon, especially across Southern Arkansas and Northern Louisiana.
237 PM CDT Tue Sep 15 2020 A broad area of high pressure is currently located over the southern Rockies along with an embedded weak low over West Texas and eastern New Mexico. The high will suppress most convection across our CWA but lift associated with the low aided by orographic lift may allow for isolated showers and storms to develop mainly in the afternoon and evening the next several days south of I-10. Temperatures will be seasonal with lows in the upper 50s to 60s and highs in the lower to mid 80s.
322 PM EDT Tue Sep 15 2020 There will be a steady increase in the low level wind field across srn Mi tonight as a cold front drops across the nrn Great Lakes while high pressure holds across the Mid Atlantic. A deep polar low forecast to rotate across Hudson Bay on Wednesday will force mid level height falls across the Great Lakes and will drive the aforementioned cold front south. Model soundings indicate this will be enough to support some low level moistening, which continues to warrant a chance of light showers along and just behind the sfc cold front.
Lower dew points and lighter winds could lead to another night of relatively cool temperatures, especially for the Hill Country where lows could drop as low as the low to mid 60s. Broad mid to upper level troughing over NW TX/OK will begin to sag south tonight and usher Sally north/inland and this will begin to increase the potential for a few clusters of nocturnal convection Wednesday night.
Lows tonight will be similar to or a degree or two warmer than last night due to the increasing clouds.
319 PM CDT Tue Sep 15 2020 18Z surface data has low pressure over northern Lake Superior. A cold front ran southwest from the low into South Dakota. Dew points were in the 60s across the Midwest with 50s behind the cold front. A cold front will move through the area on Wednesday but no rain is expected.
/issued 237 PM CDT Tue Sep 15 2020/ A broad area of high pressure is currently located over the southern Rockies along with an embedded weak low over West Texas and eastern New Mexico. The high will suppress most convection across our CWA but lift associated with the low aided by orographic lift may allow for isolated showers and storms to develop mainly in the afternoon and evening the next several days south of I-10. Temperatures will be seasonal with lows in the upper 50s to 60s and highs in the lower to mid 80s.
High pressure to the north will provide somewhat drier and more stable air. The high pressure to our north will largely win out and look for virtually precip free weather through the taf period.
539 PM MDT Tue Sep 15 2020 A quasi-rex pattern is in place with high pressure over the northern Great Basin and broad low pressure extending from the Southern Plains into the Desert SW. With the high overhead shower activity will wane tomorrow afternoon. There remains just enough orographic forcing to keep moderate cumulus forming over the higher ridgetops.
/Issued 205 PM CDT Tue Sep 15 2020/ Weak/positively tilted upper trough will continue a slow eastward progression over the next couple of days.
18Z surface data has low pressure over northern Lake Superior. A cold front ran southwest from the low into South Dakota. Dew points were in the 60s across the Midwest with 50s behind the cold front. A cold front will move through the area on Wednesday but no rain is expected.
930 PM EDT Tue Sep 15 2020 Mainly dry weather is expected through most of the week under high pressure. A mainly dry late week cold front should return below average temperatures to the area by the weekend. High pressure should maintain dry weather tonight as it moves east across the region. Clouds will increase overnight as the trough and a surface cold front near the region.
High pressure at the surface continues over the mid Atlantic and extends west across the Ohio Valley and southwest across North Carolina and the southern Appalachians this evening. An inverted trough lies over the eastern Tennessee Valley with isolated showers occurring just south and west of Knoxville at mid evening. Otherwise skies will be partly to mostly cloudy overnight with lows similar to this mornings northeast in the mid 50s to lower 60s with drier airmass and less cloud cover and slightly warmer south in the mid 60s.
Attention then turns to an inbound cold front late Wednesday.
As cooler water churns up, the storm will lose its fuel.
Few impacts in the short term with high pressure building into the area over the next 24 hours. With the passage of a secondary cold front tomorrow morning will see better mixing and the HRRR does indicate the integrated smoke to be pushed south of the area tomorrow. Temps tomorrow will be much cooler with highs in the 50s and 60s as 925mb drop from 15 to 20C this afternoon to 5 to 10C tomorrow. A dip in the jet stream allows CAA to occur until the weekend, keeping temperatures cooler. NW flow will be present until a low pressure system aloft moves to our north, changing flow in the northern plains to be from the southwest and west through the period.
A dry cold front will continue its slow approach from the northwest this evening, moving atop the WFO MPX coverage area overnight through the first half of Wednesday, moving into IA/IL by Wednesday evening.
High temperatures will be several degrees cooler than their potential due to smoke cover, but will still reach around 10 degrees above normal. A low pressure system is still on track to approach by the end of the week.
752 PM EDT Tue Sep 15 2020 Mainly dry weather is expected through most of the week under high pressure. A mainly dry late week cold front should return below average temperatures to the area by the weekend. High pressure should maintain dry weather tonight as it moves east across the region. Clouds will increase overnight as the trough and a surface cold front near the region.
701 PM EDT Tue Sep 15 2020 A large area of high pressure directly overhead will maintain control our weather for the next couple of days with nearly cloud-free skies and light wind.
532 PM MDT Tue Sep 15 2020 The persistent area of high pressure will remain across the forecast area across the four corners region through Wednesday. Most of the forecast area will continue to have a weak northwest flow in the lower levels with borderline elevated to near critical fire weather conditions expected through Wednesday afternoon.
520 PM MDT Tue Sep 15 2020 00Z TAF CYCLE Upper ridge axis remains stretched across the Great Basin and over CO with a weak area of low pressure over se NM.
626 PM CDT Tue Sep 15 2020 Another warmer than average day across the area, with temperatures largely in the 80s and breezy southerly winds. Change is coming through, with a cold front expected to move into the area later this afternoon through Wednesday. Cooler air filters in behind the front, with highs on Wednesday in the upper 60s to near 80, with the cooler highs mostly along/north of I-90. Cooler air will continue into the end of the week.
825 PM EDT Tue Sep 15 2020 23z sfc analysis shows high pressure starting to move to the northeast out of the area with an inverted trough working north along the spine of the Appalachians from the Deep South ahead of Sally. On satellite, amid the high particulates from the western forest fires, some of the leading clouds from Sally are making it to the Kentucky and Tennessee border. Temperatures vary across eastern Kentucky from the low 60s north to the low 70s in the south while dewpoint likewise range from the mid 50s north to the upper 60s south. High pressure and upper level ridging will remain in place throughout the short term across Kentucky, with lower heights located well to our north. Temperatures and humidity will be higher than that of today, with highs forecasted in the low 80s.
1027 PM EDT Tue Sep 15 2020 High pressure keeps conditions dry, with temperatures trending warmer on Wednesday.
952 PM EDT Tue Sep 15 2020 A large area of high pressure directly overhead will maintain control our weather for the next couple of days with nearly cloud-free skies and light wind.
758 PM EDT Tue Sep 15 2020 High pressure keeps conditions dry, with temperatures trending warmer on Wednesday.
/NEW/ /Through Wednesday/ North and Central Texas are currently sandwiched between Hurricane Sally and troughing over the Desert Southwest and High Plains. Although a few northeastward-moving sprinkles may have occurred in our northwest zones associated with the upper trough, the bulk of the spotty showers today were southwestward-moving within the boundary flow influenced by Sally. Sally's landfall will encourage the troughing to move southeastward over North and Central Texas on Wednesday.
626 PM CDT Tue Sep 15 2020 H5 analysis from earlier this morning had a broad area of high pressure located over the southwestern CONUS. Low amplitude ridging extended north into the northern Rockies of Montana. West of the ridge, low pressure was around 800 miles off the coast of Oregon with a trough extending south into the eastern Pacific. At the surface, a weak trough of low pressure has pushed into western Nebraska this afternoon with a cool front draped across central South Dakota. A weak cold front will push into the forecast area overnight. Behind the front Wednesday, highs will be noticeably cooler with readings in the mid 70s in the north to lower 80s in the southwest. Highs were trended toward the cooler MET guidance tomorrow, as hazy skies will continue.
Lows will be in the low to mid 70s under a canopy of higher clouds.
Short term model analysis shows the slowly moving backdoor cold front over the northern forecast zones as of 0Z this evening. Smoke is going to be an issue as well as high pressure moves slightly west allowing more smoke to move into the area. High pressure over western Colorado and northwestern Wyoming this afternoon. A dry cold front lays across northeastern Wyoming up into west central Montana. Winds ease late afternoon into the evening hours as high pressure begins to slowly shift west. Much cooler tomorrow with afternoon highs roughly 10-12 degrees cooler out over the Panhandle for Wednesdays highs.
High pressure ridging from the New England coast to the Ohio Valley tonight will keep us dry with a very light northeast breeze and scattered high clouds. Lows will range from the mid 50s in southern Indiana closer the the axis of the ridge to the lower 60s in southern Kentucky. On Wednesday the high will slip eastward as TC Sally stays well to our south in southern Alabama. We may be a degree or two warmer tomorrow as thicknesses increase slightly and the surface conditions continue to dry, though cloud cover may dampen that somewhat.
1028 PM EDT Tue Sep 15 2020 Currently - A surface through lower level ridge extends southwestward across the Bahamas and into central Cuba. This lack of convection is likely due to some drier air moving in through the lower level as seen in satellite imagery and MFL's evening sounding. Short Term Update - Ridging will continue to dominate Keys weather through the overnight period. Forecast soundings suggest the slightly warmer and drier air through the lower levels will continue to filter westward across our area through the overnight period. A ridge extending southwestward across the central Bahamas and Cuba will maintain light east to southeast breezes across Keys waters through the overnight period.
There will also be a slight chance of a few spotty showers this evening into late tonight as a cold front works its way southeastward into central Illinois.
137 AM EDT Wed Sep 16 2020 Mainly dry weather is expected through the weekend under high pressure.
HRRR vertically integrated smoke takes the highest density plume to the south of us, so we will get more solar today. Temps in northwestern MN will get down to freezing and slightly below, with mid to upper 30s elsewhere.
215 AM EDT Wed Sep 16 2020 High pressure keeps conditions dry, with temperatures trending warmer on Wednesday.
Highs today will be in the mid to lower 80s with our cooler temperatures near the MS/AL border.
Expect highs in the lows 80s today, followed by lows in the mid 50s to low 60s tonight.
High pressure is situated to our north as Hurricane Sally inches toward the Gulf Coast.
1133 PM MDT Tue Sep 15 2020 A quasi-rex pattern is in place with high pressure over the northern Great Basin and broad low pressure extending from the Southern Plains into the Desert SW. With the high overhead shower activity will wane tomorrow afternoon. There remains just enough orographic forcing to keep moderate cumulus forming over the higher ridgetops.
335 AM CDT Wed Sep 16 2020 The short term forecast is highlighted by continued smoke aloft, as well as near the surface in the west, and much cooler temperatures. Quasi-zonal flow aloft this morning will be turning northwesterly through the day, as troughing to our northeast deepens and a closed low off the west coast continues to develop. It will be much cooler today, with highs ranging from the upper 50s north central to the mid 60s southwest.
311 AM CDT Wed Sep 16 2020 A cold front stretches from southwest Minnesota to the Upper Peninsula early this morning. Ongoing CAA will usher in a cleaner Canadian airmass this evening, clearing out all lingering smoke within the column as high pressure builds into the region.
Late this week, as the remaining circulation of Sally lifts to the east-northeast across the Southeastern US, broad 500 troughing will linger over Texas and into Louisiana.
1257 AM EDT Wed Sep 16 2020 Mainly dry weather is expected through the weekend under high pressure.
From late afternoon through the evening on Wednesday a back door cold front will blow through gaps in the central mountain chain with east canyon wind gusts potentially reaching 35 kt at KABQ and KSAF.
308 AM CDT Wed Sep 16 2020 Overnight water vapor imagery showing a weak upper trough over the central Plains, Sally just off the Gulf coast, an upper low pushing southeast out of northern Manitoba, and a cut-off low west of the Pacific Northwest. Looking back at daytime visible imagery, smoke from the western states' fires covered much of the central and northern Plains while overnight surface observations north of the modest cold front associated with the Manitoba low indicate some reductions in visibility from apparent smoke. The front continues to pass through dry today with limited ascent and warm/dry air aloft despite slightly warmer surface temps.
349 AM EDT Wed Sep 16 2020 WV imagery and RAP analysis show wnw mid/upper level flow through southern Canada and through the northern Great Lakes atop a ridge from the central Plains through the Rockies. Through the afternoon and into tonight, the low move across Lake Superior, resulting in breezy SW winds across Upper Michigan. Weak cold front will drop through Upper Michigan tonight and winds will subside a little but will turn more to the nw. This will mostly be a 'dry' cold front as soundings look mostly dry in the lower levels but can't rule out an isolated shower or two.
1002 PM CDT Tue Sep 15 2020 Strong winds aloft associated with low pressure currently north of the CWA has led to gusty southwest winds and warmer temperatures today. This last taste of summer will be short-lived though, as a cold front moves across the CWA this afternoon and evening. Cloud cover has been more extensive for locations behind the cold front, especially along the international border. Lows tonight will be cooler, with 40s expected in NE MN and low 50s across NW WI. High temps tomorrow will be noticeably cooler, with 50s along and north of the Iron Range and low to mid 60s elsewhere. Multiple locations in northeast MN will likely drop below freezing, with some lows in the upper 20s possible. Frost will likely be widespread, with freezing conditions also possible.
Dry and pleasant weather will prevail through the entire forecast period as high pressure influences the weather pattern.
1116 PM CDT Tue Sep 15 2020 H5 analysis from earlier this morning had a broad area of high pressure located over the southwestern CONUS. Low amplitude ridging extended north into the northern Rockies of Montana. West of the ridge, low pressure was around 800 miles off the coast of Oregon with a trough extending south into the eastern Pacific. At the surface, a weak trough of low pressure has pushed into western Nebraska this afternoon with a cool front draped across central South Dakota. A weak cold front will push into the forecast area overnight. Behind the front Wednesday, highs will be noticeably cooler with readings in the mid 70s in the north to lower 80s in the southwest. Highs were trended toward the cooler MET guidance tomorrow, as hazy skies will continue.
The net result is a bit more cumulus in the south and slightly warmer temperatures today.
A final day of warm, smoke filtered sunshine is on tap today as a dry cold front will pass through the state ushering in a clearer sky and cooler conditions into the first part of this weekend.
LLWS on the order of 50 knots in the lowest 2000 feet can be expected at KGPT as Hurricane Sally continues to impact this terminal the most.
321 AM CDT Wed Sep 16 2020 Moisture starved cold front continues to dive SE across our area, causing winds to veer northerly in its wake. As such, expect to see noticeably cooler temperatures today, as breezy northerly flow enhances CAA across our area. Otherwise, expect breezy conditions to diminish by sunset, with lows forecast to fall into the low to mid 40s. Cooler temperatures look to prevail into the end of the week, as highs only rise into the mid 60s to 70s, with lows falling into the upper 40s to lower 50s.
330 AM CDT Wed Sep 16 2020 The pattern aloft reflects upper ridging over the western CONUS in between low pressure systems off the coast in the Pacific Northwest and across the central/eastern Canadian provinces. Today we'll see a cold front advance south across the Central Plains during the daytime hours.
Skies will remain mostly clear outside of smoke in the higher elevations from fires out west.
Ahead of a cold front that will be approaching the region late tonight, southwesterly surface winds will warm temperatures a couple degrees more than yesterday.
332 AM CDT Wed Sep 16 2020 Broad weak trough axis aloft remains west of the region this morning with a few high based showers noted across the region.
256 AM MDT Wed Sep 16 2020 Upper level ridge retrograded into the Intermountain West as a upper trough dug south into the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes from southern Canada. Smoke/haze from the West Coast wildfires topped the ridge and spread southeast into the region. 2 AM temperatures ranged from the lower 40s to lower 60s. While the higher smoke concentrations will be aloft, daytime mixing will pull some of the smoke to the surface with visibilities lowering to 5SM at times. It will be at least 10 degrees cooler across the plains where 700mb temperatures will lower to 8 to 10C, while warm temperatures prevail to the west.
235 AM MDT Wed Sep 16 2020 Backdoor cold front last night is expected to help improve air quality in areas mainly north and east of Billings through today. Otherwise, look for somewhat cooler temps today thanks to easterly surface flow behind last evenings cold front, with highs in the mid 70s to lower 80s.
1122 PM EDT Tue Sep 15 2020 A large area of high pressure directly overhead will maintain control our weather for the next couple of days with nearly cloud-free skies and light wind.
Temperatures this afternoon will be a touch above seasonal averages, with highs topping out in the lower to middle 80s. A cold front will move through the forecast area late this afternoon into the mid-evening hours - slightly quicker arrival/passage than earlier anticipated.
336 AM CDT Wed Sep 16 2020 Much cooler temperatures are anticipated today post-cold front, when compared to yesterday, with highs in the low 60s to low 70s. This is the result of an encroaching large upper trough which is currently centered near Hudson Bay.
A cold front arrives Wednesday night, with only a small chance of a few light showers or sprinkles.
345 AM CDT Wed Sep 16 2020 A quiet morning is underway, with light and variable winds and a persistent upper trough still draped over the region ahead of an area of high pressure extending from the Desert Southwest into the Central Rockies. The aforementioned trough will slowly meander eastward, and while lift associated with this feature is weak, warming temperatures today could result in isolated showers and thunderstorms this afternoon into this evening, mainly along the west of the Pecos River, and perhaps edging into the northwestern Permian Basin and southern South Plains per latest high resolution guidance.
354 AM EDT Wed Sep 16 2020 Mainly dry weather is expected through the weekend under high pressure.