Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
This was ahead of the closed low at 500 mb which was in western Kansas. Water vapor satellite imagery early this morning showed the closed low had moved to northern Kansas. tracking the low into southwest Minnesota by early evening. as some energy starts to move our of the trough over the Pacific northwest and another closed low forms off the California coast. will generally follow recent runs of the high resolution experimental HRRR for timing of showers/thunderstorms.
as 500mb ridge builds over the region throughout the weekend. While there is a lack of forcing, diurnal heating may be enough to trigger a few convective showers and thunderstorms mainly over the higher terrain of the Adirondacks and South Central Vermont during the afternoon. Most active period then takes shape by later Sunday into Sunday night with the approach of a longwave trough and its interaction with deep tropospheric moisture. As mid level heights begin to fall by later in the day and toward evening expect a broader coverage of showers/storms to develop and continue into Sunday night as upper trough approaches.
The day begins with a cold front lined up north-south across the western zones. The front is associated with an upper trough centered over Southern British Columbia. By early evening the trough lifts back north into canada, allowing flow aloft to become westerly and ending the showers and thunder. Then conditions begin to change again Sunday night as another trough drops into the Pacific Northwest.
500 mb low is centered over Nebraska with upper ridge over the Southeast U.
540 AM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016 High pressure will try to continue to hold in across the region from the Atlantic. WV loop shows deepest moisture still well southeast of the area as moisture and TD #2 get wrapped around closed area of low pressure over the Bahamas. By this evening high pressure will have weakened and moved farther offshore. Morning radar composite shows just a few isolated showers along the coast of the Lowcountry. Will continue with the trend of the highest pops across the eastern Midlands and Pee Dee Region with lower chances across the CSRA and western Midlands.
Expect a little more in the way of sun this afternoon, so temperatures will be a few degrees warmer than yesterday with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s.
Main weather concern through the holiday weekend will be for thunderstorms each afternoon and evening, especially across the higher terrain and in the Sierra. Chances for showers and thunderstorms today and Sunday are still looking decent as a weak area of low pressure is expected to swing across northern California and Nevada. As the trough moves across the region, temperatures will cool aloft, allowing for steeper lapse rates and better instability across the region, especially along the higher terrain.
Weak upper low will form along the central CA coast today. On Memorial Day upper ridge will be building in from the west bringing a drier and warmer airmass into the area.
The low IFR stratus deck will move into KSAT/KSSF within the by 07Z. An upper level trough moves away from Texas and along with drier air aloft makes for a lull in rains overnight.
A weak cold front rotates across northern Montana this morning will bring zonal flow by this afternoon. Models do indicate some CAPE over the far eastern zones, with a chance of the tail end of cold front slipping through the eastern zones. Expect thunderstorms along the departing cold front, but weak shear should limit strength of storms. Zonal flow aloft will persist over the region tonight through Sunday, with some possible short wave ridging possible. A drier airmass, and downslope flow will lead to warmer temps. The Pacific trof approaches the area Sunday night.
Nam shows a trough in the wrn U. In the extended, GFS and ECMWF show a 500 mb closed low and trough over the northern plains and another over the desert SW 12z Tue. The trough over the northern plains moves slowly east 12z Wed and moves into the upper Great lakes 12z Thu and this remains over the area into Fri.
Upper low over eastern CO and western KS will continue to pull off to the northeast. Storms will initiate over the higher terrain before slowly moving across the plains during the afternoon and evening hours. High temperatures across the plains will rebound back into the upper 70s with mid to upper- 60s expected across the high valleys. Overnight, temperatures will be on the cooler side with lows approaching the freezing mark in the San Luis Valley. Increasing UVV and moisture ahead of the southern Rockies wave looks to bring a better chance of showers and storms across the area Sunday afternoon and evening, with stronger storms still possible across the far SE Plains, as lee troughing across the southeast plains helps dry line across western Kansas to retrograde.
Weak high pressure will struggle to control the region as a tropical wave approaches the state from the Atlantic coast. Expect the remaining CWA to be precip free positioned on the subsidence side of the low.
With an upper level low to the north, the Inland Northwest will experience a chance for showers over the Idaho Panhandle and the Washington mountains, especially on Sunday. As high pressure builds into the region, look for a warming trend for the work week. Some areas may see temperatures in the lower 90s by then.
The storms to the south will gradually shift to the east with the short wave trough rotating around the base of the closed low. Upper low will continue it's slow trek eastward through the afternoon and into Saturday with PoPs remaining elevated through the afternoon. The exception will be the far eastern portions of the CWA where a Theta- E boundary is draped from north to south just east of the upper low. Weak upper ridge will gradually flatten on Sunday as flow becomes nearly zonal across the CWA.
Dry Sunday night, then PoPs Memorial Day/Night should be confined to the Ozark Foothill region as a mid level s/wv ridge builds across the area, keeping most of the area dry. Medium to low confidence on timing of pieces of energy rotating through on the southwest flow and cold front passage late in the week. The models and ensembles are in fair to good agreement on the upper level high over the southeast slowly retreating southeast at the start of the extended.
Low level northeast winds continue to advect in the lower clouds from southern Canada. The far southern James River Valley will get clipped by a few showers or thunderstorms through the morning, which are emanating around an upper low in northeast Nebraska.
As the upper trough progresses east toward the area on Saturday, we expect showers and some thunderstorms to increase in coverage through the day. It will be several degrees cooler near Lake Superior with an onshore wind continuing.
423 AM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016 An upper trough is over the Central Plains with another upper trough developing just off the southern coast of California. The area is under westerly flow aloft with a dryline expected this afternoon across the Lower Trans Pecos and eastern Permian Basin. Temperatures this afternoon are expected to be slightly warmer than yesterday but still near normal values.
/Today/ One more day of this stubborn upper level low pressure system as it finally kicks east of the state later tonight. Regardless, have the highest pops across northern Iowa. With the dry slot moving over southern Iowa, the atmosphere likely will have a chance to destabilize a little and allow for a few storms to redevelop this afternoon as the trough moves into western Iowa. Low confidence in any widespread severe potential today, but certainly cannot rule out the potential for a few funnel clouds near the upper low as it moves across northern Iowa. Even though the 0-1 km bulk shear is not favorable, there is decent vorticity present with the upper low in northern Iowa by around 21z.
Daytime heating could provide an opportunity for some shower/thunderstorm development today, but think the majority of the area will stay dry as upper level heights rise a little in response to ridging building into the area from the south.
358 AM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016 Upper level low continues to move northeast this morning with weak subsidence over the area in its wake.
This will take much of the upper level support to our north and leave a weak cold front at the surface as the primary focus for any convection early this evening, with what does develop tracking east.
/Tonight/ Negatively-tilted H300 trough axis currently over the Texas Panhandle will lift northeast tonight into east central KS, helping to fuel the next round of showers and storms for Iowa.
As the upper low over NE moves toward the Upper MS River Valley another round of pva and showers and scattered tstorms is expected over at least south central WI late this afternoon into the evening.
157 AM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016 A ridge of high pressure will stay in place over the western Atlantic, bringing very warm and increasingly humid conditions to the region through much of the holiday weekend. Cooler and showery weather may arrive for Memorial Day. A mostly clear and warm night underway across central Pa beneath building upper lvl ridge. Subtropical ridge builds nwwd into Pa on Sat with 500mb height anomalies reaching 2SD across southeast Pa.
Weak mid-upper troughing over the area, combined with decent moisture and surface heating will be enough to ignite mainly afternoon/evening showers/storms (20pct coast/30pct interior). A persistent pattern continues with weak mid-upper level troughing still across the FL peninsula during this time.
An upper low will deepen over the west coast Saturday causing pressure falls in the Rockies and pulling the dryline back west into the Permian Basin. An upper ridge axis over west Texas will prevent anything other than isolated to widely scattered convection from developing, though shear values will be high enough to allow one or two storms to be severe. Sunday the ridge axis shifts east and the dryline pushes farther west.
Pops will continue into the evening and overnight hours as mid level trough progresses over the region.
323 AM PDT SAT MAY 28 2016 A weak low pressure system moving inland through Southern California will bring a slight chance of showers to the mountains this afternoon and a slight thunderstorms to the mountains and upper deserts for Sunday afternoon.
Warmer temperatures will continue into Saturday as warm north winds move into the Bay Area.
For today, an upper level low pressure will lift from the Central Plains to the Great Lakes as a tailing, weakening trough axis lifts across the Tn Valley and Oh Valley regions. The extensive cloud cover will keep temperatures lower today than yesterday for most locations, with highs in the lower 80s area wide. Otherwise, tonight will be partly cloudy with lows in the 60s, as the trough axis moves off to the northeast and an upper level ridge strengthens. For Sunday through Memorial Day, warm, humid summer wx will be in place as a pressure ridge spreads over the area. The ridge will be of moderate intensity, so isolated showers or storms are expected to develop in the heat of the afternoon each day (20 pops).
Low temperatures close to guidance and in the low and mid 60s. Weak forcing under an upper level trof. The highs today and tomorrow will be within 5 degrees of records. Sunday convection diurnal again but wind fields increase with approaching upper level trof and short wave. With convection sooner and more widespread high temps expected to be a few degrees cooler.
High pressure should result in dry weather for Memorial Day. Previous discussion-Ridging is expected to remain centered off the mid Atlantic coast today. A trough advancing out of the midwest should approach the region Sunday as the ridge shifts east. These should taper off overnight after the passage of the trough.
In the upper levels, high pressure ridging extends from near Bermuda northwest toward the mid Atlantic region. Just to the south of this ridge, north of the Bahamas, Tropical Depression Two has developed and is moving northwest toward the South Carolina coastline. Sea breeze showers and storms can be expected during the afternoon for the next couple of days with the highest concentration being south of the I-4 corridor and over inland counties.
549 AM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016 A ridge of high pressure will remain centered over Pa today and Sunday.
414 AM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016 High pressure off the East Coast will result in warm and humid conditions with a chance of showers and thunderstorms through Sunday. A weak cold front will move through Sunday night.
High pressure should result in dry weather for Memorial Day. Ridging is expected to remain centered off the mid Atlantic coast today. A trough advancing out of the midwest should approach the region Sunday as the ridge shifts east. These should taper off overnight after the passage of the trough.
Cloud cover and showers are passing through portions of the region with the influence of a trough this morning. Winds will also be breezy with the cold front Sunday evening and into the overnight with showers to also linger.
Slow open h5 wave over the Plains this morning on sat imagery slowly rotating through the broad scale trof over the western half of the CONUS.
643 AM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016 High pressure off the East Coast will result in warm and humid conditions with a chance of showers and thunderstorms through Sunday. A weak cold front will move through Sunday night.
Dry zonal flow aloft today will follow a departing upper trough. Next upper trough will move into the area on Sunday. Moisture in central Nevada will get drawn northeastward ahead of the trough. Moisture and instability along a cold front (accompanying the upper trough) will lead to a slight chance of afternoon showers and thunderstorms generally north of a Baker City to Stanley line. High temperatures will be a few degrees warmer today and 5-10 degrees warmer on Sunday.
THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT UPPER LOW EXISTS OVER SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA WITH A SLIGHTLY NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH EXTENDING TO THE SOUTH OF THERE. WESTERN AND CENTRAL WYOMING LIES BETWEEN THESE TWO LOW CENTERS WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH DRIVING A WEAK VORT EASTWARD NOW SITUATED ALONG THE MONTANA IDAHO BORDER. ANOTHER TROUGH WILL SWING BY ON SATURDAY WITH SIMILAR RESULTS, WITH THE BEST INSTABILITY WEST OF THE DIVIDE.
Highs will generally reach the low to mid 80s, with lows in the 60s. Drier air will filter in on Memorial Day with high temperatures once again reaching the low to mid 80s. Warm/high theta-e airmass will remain in place tonight into the upcoming weekend within deep south-southwest flow between broad western US/Plains upper troughing and an expanding eastern NOAM ridge. A closed upper low and associated sfc reflection over far western Kansas will open northeast into eastern NE/IA Saturday and into the western/central Great Lakes on Sunday. Better flow/forcing does finally arrive Sunday afternoon as height falls through the Great Lakes forces a cold front through. The next slow moving upper trough/frontal system will then bring renewed chances for showers/storms by the middle of the week.
1218 AM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016 Upper trough is currently extending from southwest Neb to central KS, and will lift northeastward squarely across the forecast area very late tonight and Saturday. Later tonight ahead of the aforementioned upper trough, thetae advection increases again and lingers through the day Saturday as the trough moves through. On the backside of this low, thetae ridging is pretty persistent, so would not rule out pockets of heavy rainfall, especially noting light mid level winds, generally throughout the eastern half of our area east of the James River valley. That said, the warm cloud depth is relatively shallow and the low level dew points are not excessively high. However, broad consensus shows mid-upper level trough approaching from the west, with a weak warm front lifting north into the forecast area during the day.
Concur with the GFS deterministic with regard to the development of an upper ridge over the region during the period.
220 AM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016 Bermuda high pressure will remain across the region through the weekend.
Current boundary(northern extent of inverted trough from southern low) through the valley is expected to drift slightly west today as more persistent NE surface flow develops. Also ridging into the central Dakotas will limit pcpn potential over the far western fa. As upper low continues to lift east tonight pcpn should be ending from W-E overnight. Minimum temperatures Sunday night will be a bit cooler with clearing. Temperatures should be able to rise into the upper 70s most areas with warmer column and solar.
An upper level trough will exit the region to the east Saturday night.
Precip over the lower Mississippi Valley has failed to materialize, with radars not tapping much more than a mid-level deck lifting into the Missouri Bootheel and western Tennessee. Upstream convective activity is still limited, but we are starting to see a smattering of showers in the Lower Mississippi Valley, with an upper impulse being thrown out of a convective complex along the western Gulf Coast. This impulse kicks through this evening, and the upper pattern starts to flatten out as the deep trof over the Plains lifts into the western Great Lakes. One more impulse will swing through on Sunday as the trof gets picked up in the westerlies, so will continue a 20-30 POP through Sunday, with temps just a couple degrees warmer than today thanks to more sunshine.
416 AM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016 A ridge of high pressure will stay in place over the western Atlantic, bringing very warm and increasingly humid conditions to the region through much of the holiday weekend. Cooler and showery weather may arrive for Memorial Day. A mostly clear and warm night underway across central Pa beneath building upper lvl ridge. Subtropical ridge builds nwwd into Pa on Sat with 500mb height anomalies reaching 2SD across southeast Pa.
402 AM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016 Mid level ridging will weaken slightly today through mid week allowing for some convection to get started each day.
Upstream convective activity is still limited, but we are starting to see a smattering of showers in the Lower Mississippi Valley, with an upper impulse being thrown out of a convective complex along the western Gulf Coast. This impulse kicks through this evening, and the upper pattern starts to flatten out as the deep trof over the Plains lifts into the western Great Lakes. One more impulse will swing through on Sunday as the trof gets picked up in the westerlies, so will continue a 20-30 POP through Sunday, with temps just a couple degrees warmer than today thanks to more sunshine.
The subsidence from TD2 has shifted east of the area, though an upper ridge stretching north along the Atlantic coast that TD2 is embedded in continues to show subsidence in the soundings from surrounding offices. For the forecast, subsidence from the ridge will keep temps close to seasonal today.
/issued 423 AM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016/ An upper trough is over the Central Plains with another upper trough developing just off the southern coast of California. The area is under westerly flow aloft with a dryline expected this afternoon across the Lower Trans Pecos and eastern Permian Basin. Temperatures this afternoon are expected to be slightly warmer than yesterday but still near normal values.
837 PM PDT SAT OCT 8 2016 Hot and dry inland through Sunday with a weak ridge of high pressure aloft.
00 UTC surface analysis shows a cold front across the forecast area extending just east of Tifton to west of Tallahassee and east of Panama City. Surface winds will stay up behind the front as high pressure is expected to remain back across Southern Missouri. Overnight lows should generally be in the upper 50s across our Northern zones and in the low to mid 60s down in the SE Fla Big Bend.
Strong high pressure centered over the mid- Mississippi valley and ridging southwest will maintain a dry northerly flow over the region. /issued 356 PM CDT SAT OCT 8 2016/ A cold front moved through southeast Texas and southern Louisiana this morning. As a result temperatures are running about 5 to 8 degrees cooler than yesterday with dew points around 60 degrees. Looking for temps to rebound into the lower 80s tomorrow under clear skies.
High clouds associated with an approaching trough will increase from west to east Sunday afternoon and evening. With clear skies, light northeast winds and the lower dewpoints, expect overnight lows in the upper 40s to mid 50s across the forecast area.
Patchy fog is possible late especially near bodies of water as temperatures drop into the lower 50s and 40s.
851 PM CDT SAT OCT 8 2016 High pressure will dominate the weather across central Illinois tonight. Due to favorable radiational cooling conditions acting on a very dry airmass, 01z/8pm temperatures have already dropped into the lower to middle 50s across much of the KILX CWA. Overnight lows will fall into the lower to middle 40s. Very quiet weather expected in the short term, as high pressure drifts eastward across the upper Great Lakes. More of a southwest breeze on Sunday will set up, resulting in lows tonight a bit warmer, but still mainly in the mid 40s, cooler near the Indiana border. Sunday looking quite nice as well, a bit warmer as highs reach the lower 70s.
808 PM EDT Sat Oct 8 2016 A cold front will cross the area overnight.
Strong high pressure centered over the mid- Mississippi valley and ridging southwest will maintain a dry northerly flow over the region. Strong high pressure centered over the mid- Mississippi valley and ridging southwest will maintain a dry northerly flow over the region. /issued 356 PM CDT SAT OCT 8 2016/ A cold front moved through southeast Texas and southern Louisiana this morning. As a result temperatures are running about 5 to 8 degrees cooler than yesterday with dew points around 60 degrees. Looking for temps to rebound into the lower 80s tomorrow under clear skies.
746 PM EDT SAT OCT 8 2016 The only real update will be to allow the high rip current risk to expire at 8 PM. The leading edge of the cooler and drier air is still in southern Georgia, and should be moving into the region later tonight and during Saturday.
1128 PM CDT SAT OCT 8 2016 A bubble of high pressure centered over Missouri has been cut off from its larger parent high which is centered over southern Canada. This yielded temperatures in the low to mid 40s except in the heat island of St. MOS highs in the low to mid 70s look reasonable with the aforementioned west-southwest flow, so have followed it closely.
1043 PM MDT Sat Oct 8 2016 Upper level analysis shows low-amplitude ridge over the northwestern CONUS. At the surface, the stationary boundary continues to stretch across the CWA, with high pressure to the north. Winds will increase from the south tonight, as high pressure slides to the east. Dry weather will continue as upper ridge axis passes over the northern plains Sunday. Flow will become southwesterly, and warmer air will advect into the region. Tight pressure gradient between exiting high and approaching low pressures will result in gusty southerly winds across central SD in the afternoon.
High pressure over the state will keep light NE winds inland sites increasing after 14-16z to around 10 knots then relaxing after 01-03z.
830 PM EDT Sat Oct 8 2016 High pressure will gradually clear skies this evening as it builds in from the west.
1100 PM MDT Sat Oct 8 2016 High clouds continue to stream in from the south thanks to a weak wave to our west and high pressure over Texas. By tomorrow, the trough axis will finally move overhead. The trough will bring some mid-level instability along with weak lift which will allow some showers and a few storms to form. The NAM and GFS both paint the highest terrain from I-70 south, with the San Juans heavily favored, for any precipitation.