Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
A VERY UNSETTLED PATTERN FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS A BROAD UPPER LOW OVER THE ARK-LA-TEX REGION SHIFTS EASTWARD. WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN RAIN COVERAGE BY MID AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LOW DRAWS CLOSER. CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LOW. EXPECT SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS TO GRADUALLY LOWER TONIGHT AS COOLER AIR MOVES IN FROM GEORGIA. A NEARLY STATIONARY UPPER LOW MEANDERING TO OUR NORTHWEST WILL ALSO PROVIDE LIFT.
623 AM CDT THU APR 14 2016 UPPER LOW OVER ARKANSAS CONTINUES TO MOVE EXTREMELY SLOWLY TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST THIS MORNING. /ISSUED 344 AM CDT THU APR 14 2016/ A SLOW-MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY SPIRALING OVER ARKANSAS CONTINUES TO PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT TO GENERATE SHOWERS ACROSS OUR EASTERN COUNTIES EARLY THIS MORNING. THE WEST EDGE OF THE CLOUD DECK STRETCHED ALONG A BRECKENRIDGE TO HEARNE LINE. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF A BRECKENRIDGE TO GATESVILLE TO HEARNE LINE THROUGH 10 AM.
SHOWER CHANCES WILL DIMINISH DURING THE MORNING HOURS AS THE WEAK COLD FRONT NOW MOVING THROUGH OUR DISTRICT DISSIPATES.
654 AM CDT THU APR 14 2016 Ridge of high pressure extending from the eastern Great Lakes to the southern Plains will dominate the weather across central Illinois today. While an upper low spinning over Arkansas may spread some high/thin clouds into the far SE KILX CWA, overall skies will remain sunny. As upper ridging builds over the Midwest, temperatures will continue to slowly climb through the end of the week. Warming will be somewhat mitigated by a continued easterly flow around persistent surface ridging, but high temperatures will still climb into the lower 70s by Friday. The only potential fly-in-the-ointment will be an upper low currently over Arkansas. After that, the big question in the extended will be how quickly the upper ridge will break down.
/ISSUED 440 AM CDT THU APR 14 2016/ CLOSED UPPER LOW MEANDERING OVER CENTRAL/SRN AR. WITH MAIN AREA OF SCATTERED CONVECTION JUST SOUTH OF THIS LOW. MUCH LARGER UPPER LOW OVER PACIFIC NW TO DIG SE INTO NM THIS WKND AND HOLD STEADY OVER THAT STATE FOR A DAY OR TWO. WILL INTRODUCE ISOLD POPS INTO NE TX LATE IN WKND BUT INCREASING MOISTURE QUICKLY AS THE LOW THEN MOVES INTO SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE LOW WEAKENS AND LACK OF SFC FEATURES WILL MAKE IT TOUGH TO PINPOINT THE POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH COULD HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ACROSS STILL WATERLOGGED PORTIONS OF CWA. AS THIS LOW MOVES INTO OHIO VALLEY BY MID WEEK.
1253 PM EDT THU APR 14 2016 AVIATION HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AND WEEKEND AND RESULT IN FAIR WEATHER WITH A SIGNIFICANT MODERATING TREND OF TEMPERATURES.
WITH A SLIGHT NUDGE OF HIGHS INTO THE LOW 80S FOR THE COTEAU. MOST OF THE CWA WILL SEE VERY WARM TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS REACHING THE LOW 80S. A STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WEST OF THE REGION WILL PRODUCE GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. AN UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW AT 500 MB CURRENTLY IMPACTING THE PAC NW. THIS SYSTEM WILL BECOME A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE US.
1027 AM CDT THU APR 14 2016 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL ALLOW FOR CLEAR SKIES IN SOUTHERN WISCONSIN TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE RISE INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S WELL INLAND. THE STEADY SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL KEEP THE LAKESHORE COUNTIES COOLER ONCE AGAIN.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TODAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL START BUILDING INTO THE AREA FRIDAY WITH CLEARING SKIES. THIS RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE WEEKEND WITH DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS.
1030 AM EDT THU APR 14 2016 CURRENTLY - SURFACE WINDS ARE LIGHT OUT OF THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST DUE TO WEAK RIDGING TO OUR NORTH. WITH DAY TIME HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT TO GENTLE OUT OF THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO WEAK RIDGING TO OUR NORTH.
851 AM EDT THU APR 14 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
THE LATEST H5 ANALYSIS STILL DEPICTS AN UPPER LOW STATIONED ROUGHLY OVER NW ARKANSAS EMBEDDED UNDER A LARGER UPPER RIDGE. CLOUDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO FILL IN THESE AREAS BY MID AFTERNOON WITH MODEL GUIDANCE MOVING THE UPPER LOW SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST TOWARD THE REGION. /ISSUED 234 AM CDT THU APR 14 2016/ AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN OVER THE MIDSOUTH TODAY AND TONIGHT. DEEPER MOISTURE IS RESIDING EAST OF THIS INVERTED TROF. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BECOME TRAPPED UNDERNEATH A DEVELOPING UPPER RIDGE. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY DRIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST BEGINNING ON FRIDAY.
SURFACE OBS THIS MORNING SHOW AN INVERTED TROUGH IN PLACE ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS AND DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 40S/50S ACROSS SOUTHEAST ZONES VERSUS NORTHEAST WINDS AND MUCH LOWER DEWPOINTS IN THE FAR NORTHWEST. BUT BETTER CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL BE WEST OF OUR FORECAST AREA CLOSER TO CENTER OF UPPER LOW. UPPER LOW AND AN INVERTED SURFACE BOUNDARY ARE EXPECTED TO SET UP ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.
BUT PARTIAL SUNSHINE LATER THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS TO WARM INTO THE LOWER 70S. 05/ /ISSUED 623 AM CDT THU APR 14 2016/ UPPER LOW OVER ARKANSAS CONTINUES TO MOVE EXTREMELY SLOWLY TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST THIS MORNING. /ISSUED 344 AM CDT THU APR 14 2016/ A SLOW-MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY SPIRALING OVER ARKANSAS CONTINUES TO PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT TO GENERATE SHOWERS ACROSS OUR EASTERN COUNTIES EARLY THIS MORNING. THE WEST EDGE OF THE CLOUD DECK STRETCHED ALONG A BRECKENRIDGE TO HEARNE LINE. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF A BRECKENRIDGE TO GATESVILLE TO HEARNE LINE THROUGH 10 AM.
1247 PM EDT THU APR 14 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER AND WARMING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE REGION. OVERNIGHT WILL BE CLEAR WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN OBSERVED THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO TREND WARMER EACH DAY AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND.
Ridge of high pressure extending from the eastern Great Lakes to the southern Plains will dominate the weather across central Illinois today. While an upper low spinning over Arkansas may spread some high/thin clouds into the far SE KILX CWA, overall skies will remain sunny. As upper ridging builds over the Midwest, temperatures will continue to slowly climb through the end of the week. Warming will be somewhat mitigated by a continued easterly flow around persistent surface ridging, but high temperatures will still climb into the lower 70s by Friday. The only potential fly-in-the-ointment will be an upper low currently over Arkansas. After that, the big question in the extended will be how quickly the upper ridge will break down.
SHOWERS ENDING THIS MORNING AS A COLD FRONT EXITS OUR AREA TO THE EAST. A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM A LOW OVER CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN SOUTHEASTWARD TO NEAR MINOT TO NEAR BISMARCK. SCATTERED SHOWERS JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT CONTINUED TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE JAMES VALLEY INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A DEEP UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE DOWNSTREAM RIDGE WAS APPROACHING THE GREAT LAKES AREA. THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO STALL OVER THE JAMES VALLEY TODAY. AND A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET MOVING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL HELP DEVELOP A SURFACE/LOW LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE WYOMING LOW NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN NORMAL ACROSS SE GA DUE TO THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS.
1044 AM EDT THU APR 14 2016 HYDRO HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AND WEEKEND AND RESULT IN FAIR WEATHER WITH A SIGNIFICANT MODERATING TREND OF TEMPERATURES.
WINDS ARE LIGHT AND IT WILL TAKE MUCH SUN TO FINALLY DISSIPATE THE LOW CLOUDS, ESPCIALLY IN SOUTHWEST OKLAHAOMA.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BRING THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL ALONG WITH MOUNTAIN SNOW TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE STORM AND BRING WARM AND DRY WEATHER THIS WEEKEND. SHOWERS BEGAN TO INCREASE AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHED THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK WILL START TO APPROACH THE AREA AS THE TROUGH MOVES INLAND AND THIS WILL LIKELY ENHANCE THE SHOWER ACTIVITY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OVER THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND WARMING TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
1009 AM EDT THU APR 14 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN JUST TO THE NORTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
1200 PM CDT THU APR 14 2016 335 AM CDT SIGNS OF OUR DEVELOPING BLOCKING PATTERN SHOW UP IN WATER VAPOR SATELLITE THIS MORNING. WITH LOW PRESSURE OFF THE WEST COAST. HIGH PRESSURE IN THE PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST. AND LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST COAST. COMPLICATING THE PATTERN IS A CUT OFF LOW UNDERCUTTING THE UPPER RIDGE IN A MINI REX BLOCK OF ITS OWN. WITH THE UPPER RIDGE EXPANDING IN STRENGTH AND AERIAL EXTENT AS THE WEST COAST LOW DIGS INTO THE SOUTHWEST.
WITH INCREASED MIXING INTO THIS LAYER LIKELY TO KNOCK DEW POINTS BACK THROUGH THE LOW 30S IF NOT EVEN UPPER 20S. HAVE ALSO RAISED HIGHS ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF NOTABLE LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGING TIED TO A WARM FRONT ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST MINNESOTA BACK DOWN INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. MODEST MIXING INTO THAT WARMER ALOFT SHOULD RESULT IN HIGHS PUSHING THE MID 70S LATER TODAY. LARGE MID-LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. VERY NICE SPRING WEATHER CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS OVER THE REGION.
1044 AM EDT THU APR 14 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA WITH ADUNDANT SUNSHINE. AND INCREASINGLY WARMER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 67 49 67 49 / 50 30 30 20 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 71 49 70 47 / 20 10 10 10 OAK RIDGE, TN 72 50 72 46 / 20 10 10 10 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 72 42 68 42 / 10 10 0 0.
429 AM PDT THU APR 14 2016 A fast moving and relatively cold low pressure system will bring rain to the area with mountain snow and gusty winds. Warmer and drier Friday and into the weekend. A cold low pressure system with a cold front and associated band of moderate to locally heavy precipitation. This is also beginning to spread into the Highway 50 corridor. Gusty winds over the northern Sacramento Valley peaked late in the evening with the passage of the cold front, so the Wind Advisory was cancelled. Precipitation should taper off by early this evening and high pressure will build into the area for Friday. Slightly warmer with breezy to windy northerly winds likely during the day for the valley.
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA ON FRIDAY.
WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW TO OUR WEST WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST AND WEAKEN.
855 AM EDT THU APR 14 2016 HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTHEAST.
1102 AM EDT THU APR 14 2016 12Z SURFACE ANALYSIS FINDS MICHIGAN IN BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST OVER QUEBEC/NEW ENGLAND (WITH ANTICYCLONIC RIDGING INTO THE UPPER LAKES). COOLER NEAR LAKE HURON WITH A LAKE-BREEZE ENHANCED EASTERLY WIND. WITH WHAT HAD BEEN PERSISTENT GREAT LAKES CENTERED TROUGHING FOR THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS NOW PUSHING OFF TO THE EAST. BEING REPLACED BY STRONG AND ELONGATED RIDGING. WITH OVERHEAD RIDGING SECURING A DRY FORECAST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WITH INTERIOR AREAS LIKELY DROPPING A TOUCH BELOW FREEZING BY DAYBREAK.
1022 AM EDT THU APR 14 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER AND WARMING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE REGION. INTENSIFYING THE RIDGES OVER THE EASTERN US.
/ISSUED 234 AM CDT THU APR 14 2016/ AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN OVER THE MIDSOUTH TODAY AND TONIGHT. DEEPER MOISTURE IS RESIDING EAST OF THIS INVERTED TROF. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BECOME TRAPPED UNDERNEATH A DEVELOPING UPPER RIDGE. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY DRIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST BEGINNING ON FRIDAY.
THE LOWEST VISIBILITY AND CEILINGS ARE CURRENTLY AT KAMA WHICH HAS BEEN FLUCTUATING BETWEEN VLIFR AND LIFR THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. BELIEVE THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE LOW CLOUDS WILL GET TO ABOUT THE CENTRAL PANHANDLES BEFORE THEY START DECREASING LATER THIS MORNING. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DROP SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHERN ARIZONA BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON FRIDAY. LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL INCREASE ALONG THE DRYLINE AS A LEAD SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES NORTHWARD THROUGH EASTERN NEW MEXICO.
THERE SHOULD BE SOME LEVELING AS THE OVERALL TREND OF CLOUDINESS AND COOLER EASTERLY FLOW FROM GEORGIA CONTINUES. GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF THE NEARBY UPPER LOW AND DIURNAL HEATING/POCKETS OF INSTABILITY.
EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO BECOME MORE PRONOUNCED OVER GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA AS THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE RIDGE TO OUR NORTH STRENGTHENS. THE RIDGE IS KEEPING THE SURFACE AND UPPER LOW OVER MISSISSIPPI DETACHED FROM THE MAIN JET STREAM.
High pressure will build in across the area tonight through the weekend, allowing for dry weather and a warming trend in temperatures. Fast-moving cold front that swept thru the area overnight is beginning to shift southeast out of the area. High pressure will build in tonight and remain in control of the area through the weekend.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER A GOOD PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. SHOWERS ENDING THIS MORNING AS A COLD FRONT EXITS OUR AREA TO THE EAST. A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM A LOW OVER CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN SOUTHEASTWARD TO NEAR MINOT TO NEAR BISMARCK. SCATTERED SHOWERS JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT CONTINUED TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE JAMES VALLEY INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A DEEP UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE DOWNSTREAM RIDGE WAS APPROACHING THE GREAT LAKES AREA. THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO STALL OVER THE JAMES VALLEY TODAY. AND A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET MOVING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL HELP DEVELOP A SURFACE/LOW LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE WYOMING LOW NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA.
905 AM EDT THU APR 14 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE CIRCULATION AROUND THE HIGH WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER AND GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. HIGH PRESSURE OFF TO THE NE WILL KEEP THE SKIES SUNNY AND THE WINDS FROM THE NE. THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL ALLOW NO PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE PERIOD.
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BRING DRIER AIR INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND NORTHERN RANCHLANDS THIS AFTERNOON. 500MB RIDGE ACROSS NORTHWEST TEXAS TODAY WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE SUBSIDENCE ACROSS MOST OF THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT AS WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS. LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST TX FRIDAY AS A 500MB LOW/TROUGH MOVES INTO THE SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE UNITED STATES.
630 AM CDT THU APR 14 2016 335 AM CDT SIGNS OF OUR DEVELOPING BLOCKING PATTERN SHOW UP IN WATER VAPOR SATELLITE THIS MORNING. WITH LOW PRESSURE OFF THE WEST COAST. HIGH PRESSURE IN THE PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST. AND LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST COAST. COMPLICATING THE PATTERN IS A CUT OFF LOW UNDERCUTTING THE UPPER RIDGE IN A MINI REX BLOCK OF ITS OWN. WITH THE UPPER RIDGE EXPANDING IN STRENGTH AND AERIAL EXTENT AS THE WEST COAST LOW DIGS INTO THE SOUTHWEST.
1002 AM CDT THU APR 14 2016 UPPER LOW SEEN CHURNING OVER ARKANSAS ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING MAY RESULT IN A FEW ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE FAR EASTERN/NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES. EXPECT CLOUD COVER TO CONTINUE TO BREAK UP FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY AS DRIER AIR WRAPS AROUND THE UPPER LOW WITH TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80.
1045 AM EDT THU APR 14 2016 HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTHEAST.
WHILE A COUPLE OF MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MOVE EAST FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE OH VALLEY.
UPPER TROUGH OVER NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS WILL MOVE EAST THIS EVENING WHILE A SECOND TROUGH OVER WYOMING MOVES EAST SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NIGHT AND THEN ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA AND NORTHERN KANSAS ON WEDNESDAY. WITH THE MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY PRECIPITATION MAY BE ONGOING THROUGH THE MORNING AND PERHAPS INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 80S. PRECIP SHOULD DIMINISH WEDS NIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE UPPER SYSTEM FINALLY DEPARTS AND MID/UPPER RIDGING PROVIDES AT LEAST A BRIEF BREAK IN THE STORM CHCS.
353 PM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015 A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE CAROLINAS WEDNESDAY.
LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH THIS EVENING WHILE LOW LVL MOISTURE/TRANSPORT 310- 315K ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE BRING HIGHER PROBABILITIES FOR DEEP MOIST CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. A PERSISTENT MID/UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO PERSIST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD WHILE BUILDING WESTWARD OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. AS THE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS/SOUTHERN ROCKIES LATE IN THE PERIOD.
344 PM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015 AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT.
Cooler temperatures and breezier conditions are expected Wednesday following the arrival of a cold front. The main issue will be a dry cold front crossing the region today. 18Z TAFS: An upper level low pressure will move into the region today and linger into Wednesday. An associated cold front will result in breezy conditions this afternoon across the region with gusts up to 25 mph possible.
UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL WYOMING WITH ASSOCIATED UPPER TROF MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL COLORADO AT THIS TIME. ALONG AND BEHIND THE TROF AXIS EXPECT AN INCREASING WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH INCREASING SUBSIDENCE IN ITS WAKE. EXPECT RIDGE TOP AND EAST SLOPE WINDS SPEEDS TO INCREASE DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS UP TO 45 MPH OR SO. THE UPPER TROF WILL STILL BE SLOWLY MOVING OVER THE FAR PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME LIFT. IT WILL BE HOTTER ON WEDNESDAY WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER COLORADO.
Near the surface, a lee side trough of low pressure is edging slowly east across extreme eastern Colorado. Today's high temps will be cooler east and north of Dodge in continued cloud and storm chances with highs in the mid 80s. For Wednesday, upper level warmer ridging builds into the western High Plains with highs warming into the mid to upper 90s far west near the Colorado border, to the low to mid 90s elsewhere.
BUT THE RIDGE DOES NOT LOOK LIKE IT WILL BUILD QUITE STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT THAT YET. THE AMPLITUDE OF THIS HIGH IS NOT ANYTHING UNUSUAL WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS HOLDING AROUND 5950 METERS EACH DAY.
ATLC RIDGE AXIS REMAINS OVER THE SRN CWA NORTH OF LAKE. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW MID LEVEL S/W TROUGH SHIFTING FROM THE OH/TN VALLEY TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC COAST INTO LATE WEEK/EARLY WEEKEND. THIS FEATURE HELPS DEVELOP LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC THAT LIFTS N/NE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WITH TRAILING FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES THIS WEEKEND. THIS BOUNDARY AND LINGERING U/L TROUGH ALONG THE EASTERN COAST WILL SHIFT SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS SOUTHWARD AND LEAD TO A DEEPER OFFSHORE FLOW ACROSS CENTRAL FL. HIGHS WILL CONTINUE TO REACH THE LOW 90S MOST AREAS WITH LOWS IN THE MID 70S. RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN INVOF FORT PIERCE ST LUCIE INLETS THROUGH THU.
THE CLEARING SKIES AND DRY NORTHERLY FLOW WILL SET US UP FOR ANOTHER NIGHT OF EFFECTIVE RADIATIVE COOLING WITH TEMPS FALLING TO INTO THE LOW 50S NORTH OF M59 AND MID 50S SOUTH OF M59. AS STRONG UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA PULLS OFF TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST.
THOUGH MIDLEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW WILL LINGER A BIT INTO TOMORROW BEFORE SOME WEAK RIDGING WORKS IN. BUT AS WITH THE LOW FORECAST.
AS HIGH PRESSURE SITS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. WITH THE HIGH BRINGING LIGHT TO CALM WINDS AND GIVEN RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS IN THE LOWER LEVELS.
THIS WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL SYNOPTIC LIFT AND AID IN REINTENSIFYING THE LOW LEVEL JET BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE CWA.
AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS HAVE POINTED TOWARD LOWS TONIGHT GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 60S NORTH OF I-74, WITH UPPER 60S IN SOUTH OF I-70, WHERE CLOUDS MAY BE MORE PREVALENT LATER TONIGHT. THE NEXT WAVE OF PRECIP LOOKS TO BE TIED TO THE ADVANCEMENT OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL IL.
241 PM MDT TUE AUG 4 2015 UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE HAS SETTLED OVER NEW MEXICO AND THAT WILL DECREASE OUR RAIN CHANCES AND INCREASE OUR TEMPERATURES. HIGHS IN THE LOWLANDS THIS WEEK WILL BE IN THE TRIPLE DIGITS. AS ADVERTISED UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE HAS BROUGHT IN DRY AIR ALOFT. DEWPOINTS THIS MORNING WERE IN THE LOW 60'S. THE STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP THIS EVENING WILL STRUGGLE SO I'M NOT EXPECTING MUCH COVERAGE FOR THE LOWLANDS LATER.
135 PM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015 DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER FOR NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES.
THERE WILL BE MORE SUN IN THE MORNING THAN IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE AREA APPROACHES NW MN. THE CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE WEST TO EAST IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE LOW APPROACHES THE ND/MN BORDER BY 00Z. WITH SFC REFLECTION CLOSED LOW WILL TRANSLATE ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER WED NIGHT/THURS.
1235 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015 WATER VAPOR/DATA ANALYSIS HAS A CLOSED MID-LEVEL LOW OVER EASTERN ONTARIO CANADA WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. LOOK FOR QUIET/DRY WEATHER TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL ACROSS THE REGION. GIVEN HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD TONIGHT AND LIGHT/CALM WINDS. QUIET/DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY WITH THE HIGH HOLDING OVERHEAD WITH HIGHS TOPPING OFF AGAIN IN THE MIDDLE 70S TO MIDDLE 80S.
MAX TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY SHOULD RISE TO THE LOWER 90S.
COOLER, DRIER WEATHER WILL SETTLE IN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. SHORT WAVE TROF IS DIPPING TOWARD NORTHERN NY THIS AFTERNOON.
MID LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN OVER TEXAS. THIS RIDGE WAS CENTERED OVER ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON AND EXPECT THIS TO MOVE OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF TEXAS BY TOMORROW. DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA AND DRY AIR IS HEATED MORE EFFICIENTLY THEREFORE TEMPERATURES SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE LOW 100S FOR NEARLY ALL OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY.
459 PM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MOISTURE VALUES AGAIN DROP BETWEEN AN AMPLIFYING WESTERN RIDGE AND EAST CONUS TROF. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING ACROSS THE GULF WATERS WILL MAINTAIN A LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH MID-WEEK.
351 PM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015 A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY.
The ridge centered over the Arizona/New Mexico border will shift east over the next couple of days. As the ridge moves overhead it will for the most part quash any convection due to subsidence. Looks like the ridge will remain centered over the Southern Plains for the next 10 days. The GFS ensemble forecasts keeps the ridge anchored over the area for the next 16 days (384 hours)! So.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH INTO SOUTH FL TONIGHT-WED. A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS/SAHARAN AIR LAYER (SAL) MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE AXIS.
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS REACHING 15KTS AT ALL AIRPORTS WITH A FEW GUSTS INTO THE LOW 20S. RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. 5 INCHES MOVING INTO THE LOWER VALLEY. THE DRIER AIR MIXING DOWN TO THE SFC WILL ALSO HELP TEMPERATURES SOAR INTO THE LOW 100S FOR NEARLY ALL OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.