Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
217 PM EDT Sat Jul 9 2022 Discussion/Marine -- Cool tonight, slightly warmer Sunday -- Low temperatures this morning across west-central Lower MI dropped solidly into the 40s. Tonight we expect more uniform lows in the lower 50s for most inland areas. Model guidance is consistent with Sunday being a little warmer.
Lows tonight will fall below normal under clear skies and light winds with the cooler airmass.
May see an isolated shower or thunderstorm over the far southern portion of the forecast area through the afternoon as a weak cold front moves south out of the forecast area. Technically, this frontal boundary is a cold front, but cool will be more representative of what it will actually feel like. The position of the cold front will create two very different types of conditions across Arkansas on Saturday. Saturday Morning: Across northern Arkansas, which will be behind the cold front, morning temperatures on Saturday will vary from the low to mid 70's. Locations across northern Arkansas, behind the cold front will see high temperatures on Saturday only in the upper 80's to low 90's. Behind the cold front, slightly cooler high temperatures in conjunction with a drier airmass will provide some much needed relief across the Natural State.
High pressure will maintain dry conditions seasonable temperatures the remainder of the day and overnight.
145 PM EDT Sat Jul 9 2022 Aviation --Sunny and less humid today-- High pressure moving over the Great Lakes is producing a northeast wind flow which is advecting in air from Ontario that is cooler and drier than we've seen lately. The high will drift east Sunday and southwest winds will pull in warmer air and highs will climb back to near normal levels in the lower to mid 80s.
The ridge that has been dominating the general movement of showers and thunderstorms has started to move further south as a trough is making its way into northern Florida. The front associated with the trough will stall out over north Florida tomorrow as the ridge settles down south. The ridge will begin to move north once again and the southeast flow will return and the pattern will shift back to inland showers and thunderstorms developing and drifting back to the west coast in the evening.
SHORT TERM (Tonight through Sunday Night): Center of 500mb ridge has made its transition to the 4-Corners region of the Desert SW but continues to dominate South Texas with the 594mb isobar extending well off the Texas coast. The near 600 decameter ridge becomes orientated SW-NE from SW California to Missouri maintaining its grip on Texas and the RGV. Low temperatures tonight dip into the low to mid 70s with exception to near at 80 along the coast due to light and variable winds and clear skies.
SUMMER HEAT: Near normal temperatures this afternoon will begin to warm considerably tomorrow as high pressure expands across the West.
An upper level trough passing through Alberta will maintain breezy conditions through Sunday afternoon, with a few light showers possible over the Southwest mountains.
A weakening in the ridge will allow increased troughing across the region. These scattered SHRA and TSRA should develop across parts of the area as a weak cold front drops into the region. These scattered SHRA and TSRA should develop across parts of the area as a weak cold front drops into the region.
High pressure will maintain largely dry conditions and seasonable temperature the remainder of the day and overnight.
Intense subtropical midlevel anticyclone, about 600 dm strong, was centered over south central Colorado at midday, with infrared satellite imagery confirming strong subsidence over SW KS with a clear sky.
There may be enough instability remaining over the Permian Basin for convection to develop especially if temps reach the triple digits as forecast; however, the highest rain chances will likely remain south of Midland this afternoon. An upper high over the Four Corners region moves east into the Central Plains tomorrow increasing subsidence for our CWA.
1206 PM CDT Sat Jul 9 2022 Key Points: * Seasonal conditions today, slightly warmer tomorrow.
A trough of low pressure will track into the region today with broad southwest to west flow aloft.
300 PM CDT Sat Jul 9 2022 Beautiful mid summer day across eastern Iowa and northwest Illinois with high pressure across the region into the Great Lakes. Quiet and seasonably cool weather is expected tonight with lows in the low/mid 50s east to around 60 F west. Sunday will be a bit warmer with highs in the mid 80s on average. The overall signal indicates warmer than normal temperatures being favored for an extended time frame.
(Through tonight ) Slightly drier air will result in cooler overnight lows tonight than what we have seen lately.
The first is this afternoon and evening within the low level convergence zone extending along the northern valley with west to southwest winds nosing into southerly low level flow in the wake of the morning convection. Will need a kicker to initiate convection to overcome the weaker mid level lapse rates and 500mb ridging with water vapor imagery not showing much of a indicator of lift. Redevelopment tomorrow is the third period of concern with attention on any outflow boundaries ahead of the approaching cold front. Cold front timing does suggest NW winds push across the area tomorrow afternoon with severe threat pushing SE with it clearing the area by evening.
307 PM EDT Sat Jul 9 2022 High pressure will linger over the North Country on Sunday, leading to another beautiful day to finish up the weekend.
Highs today in the lower 80s, and low to mid 80s on Sunday with lighter winds Sunday and a fair amount of sunshine. Cooler lows tonight mostly in the upper 50s.
900 AM MST Sat Jul 9 2022 Expect a few isolated thunderstorms, firing off the higher terrain, later this afternoon. Even with this, we would still be hard pressed to get storms off of the higher terrain without good insolation in valleys and strong outflow from mountain storms. Even with this, we would still be hard pressed to get storms off of the higher terrain without good insolation in valleys and strong outflow from mountain storms.
Convection breaking out along and ahead of a cold front that push into the area this evening, could bring brief bouts of MVFR/IFR ceilings and/or visibilities to sites from late afternoon into tonight. A weakening in the ridge will allow increased troughing across the region. These scattered SHRA and TSRA should develop across parts of the area as a weak cold front drops into the region.
H7/H5 trof axis moving southeast lags behind just a bit. For the rest of the weekend, a large area of high pressure will extend from the Northeast, across the Great Lakes to the central Plains. Otherwise it will be high and dry as high pressure will remain in control.
1246 PM EDT Sat Jul 9 2022 Clear skies (below 25kft) over the taf period as high pressure becomes fully established over the Central Great Lakes tonight. * None High pressure dropping out of northern Ontario settles over the Great Lakes today ushering in a much more pleasant airmass for this weekend. Ongoing modest CAA continues throughout remainder of the day as northeasterly flow draws thermal troughing south over the central Great Lakes resulting in 850mb temps falling into the low teens (C). Largely a persistence forecast for Sunday albeit a touch warmer (low 80s) as the center of high pressure drifts to our east setting up south/southeast flow under clearer skies.
818 AM PDT Sat Jul 9 2022 High pressure will strengthen over the West, with slightly warmer weather inland.
110 PM EDT Sat Jul 9 2022 High pressure over the North Country this weekend will lead to warm sunny days and cool clear nights.
733 PM EDT Sat Jul 9 2022 Clear skies through the TAF period as high pressure is fully established over the Central Great Lakes. This along with some modification of the airmass will boost afternoon highs into the low 80s, with cooler readings along the Great Lakes).
Water vapor imagery shows us under the influence of a ridge over the High Plains. As a cold front approaches from the northwest, models indicate storms starting to fire up along the front during the late afternoon, mainly after 4 PM.
619 PM CDT Sat Jul 9 2022 (Through tonight ) Slightly drier air will result in cooler overnight lows tonight than what we have seen lately.
Overall, the rest of the forecast is on track, with slightly cooler and a bit more of a quiet day expected on Sunday. An upper level trough passing through Alberta will maintain breezy conditions through Sunday afternoon, with a few light showers possible over the Southwest mountains.
The cold front on the backside of this slowly changing weather pattern will finally move through our area later on Sunday with a few lingering leftover messy showers and isolated non-severe thunderstorms.
/issued 324 PM CDT Sat Jul 9 2022/ Current radar imagery shows showers forming along a cold front. Lows tonight will be in the low to mid 70s.
Arthur High pressure ridging that has been dominate over the forecast area the past several days will shift east this evening into Sunday as an upper trough and cold front move across the area. We expect this cap to erode later this afternoon into this evening as the upper trough approaches and begins to shift the ridge axis east. The highest probabilities for severe thunderstorms will be along and north of a Livingston- Billings- Miles City-Baker line. For Sunday, the upper trough will move eastward over the Northern Rockies with scattered showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. However, the threat of severe weather is less on Sunday due to less instability from cooler surface temperatures and slightly lower dew points.
1009 PM EDT Sat Jul 9 2022 Scattered showers along the Maryland border will taper off by late tonight, and clouds will continue to thin from north to south as high pressure builds across the region. High pressure will give us a refreshingly cool Sunday morning and nice end to the weekend with low humidity.
High pressure is in charge and with light winds and mainly clear skies, temperatures are falling through the 60s at a good rate. With high pressure overhead and a dry airmass, we should see temperatures fall rather quickly through the 60s, with overnight lows in the mid 50s. Winds turn back to the south tomorrow as high pressure pushes southeast. Boxell (Issued 140 PM CDT Sat Jul 9 2022) Sunday Night through Saturday: A weak trough will pass through the area Sunday night, bringing some additional shower and thunderstorm chances to the area.
645 PM CDT Sat Jul 9 2022 (This evening through Sunday) A weak cold front, if you can call it that with temperatures of 100 to 106 along it, extended from San Angelo to Brownwood this afternoon, as it washes out.
Also increased wind gusts due to cold fronts tonight and Sunday. Arthur High pressure ridging that has been dominate over the forecast area the past several days will shift east this evening into Sunday as an upper trough and cold front move across the area. We expect this cap to erode later this afternoon into this evening as the upper trough approaches and begins to shift the ridge axis east. The highest probabilities for severe thunderstorms will be along and north of a Livingston- Billings- Miles City-Baker line. For Sunday, the upper trough will move eastward over the Northern Rockies with scattered showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. However, the threat of severe weather is less on Sunday due to less instability from cooler surface temperatures and slightly lower dew points.
737 PM EDT Sat Jul 9 2022 A cold front pushes slowly south of the area tonight.
714 PM EDT Sat Jul 9 2022 Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb trough on the west coast, a ridge on the Rockies and plains and a trough in New England. The ridge builds toward the upper Great Lakes tonight. Mid-level ridging extending from central Plains high pressure continues to move southeastward of Upper Michigan by Sunday morning. While northwesterly flow continues aloft, the low-levels will see backing winds to south-southeasterly throughout Sunday mid-day. Expect cooler temperatures near southeastern U. locations along Lake Michigan from slightly cooler onshore winds. The warm front passes over the U. Southwesterly winds increase Sunday evening as the low level wind speeds are maximized. The trailing cold front creates a secondary round of potentially stronger thunderstorms from west to east over the U.
1039 PM EDT Sat Jul 9 2022 Clouds will continue to thin from north to south overnight as high pressure builds across the region. High pressure will give us a refreshingly cool Sunday morning and nice end to the weekend with low humidity.
312 PM MDT Sat Jul 9 2022 High pressure ridging that has been dominate over the forecast area the past several days will shift east this evening into Sunday as an upper trough and cold front move across the area. We expect this cap to erode later this afternoon into this evening as the upper trough approaches and begins to shift the ridge axis east. The highest probabilities for severe thunderstorms will be along and north of a Livingston- Billings- Miles City-Baker line. For Sunday, the upper trough will move eastward over the Northern Rockies with scattered showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. However, the threat of severe weather is less on Sunday due to less instability from cooler surface temperatures and slightly lower dew points.
A pocket of 3000-3500 J/kg of MLCAPE remains relatively untapped at this hour across parts of southwest Alabama (generally north of the Highway 84 corridor) and southeast Mississippi. 4 inch range this evening with some dry mid-level air noted on the soundings (due to the retreating ridge aloft). There remains a low end severe threat as the cluster of storms surges into the area by roughly 2z, especially for locations north of the Highway 84 corridor and across southeast Mississippi.
619 PM EDT Sat Jul 9 2022 Scattered showers along the Maryland border will taper off by late tonight, and clouds will continue to thin from north to south as high pressure builds across the region. High pressure will give us a refreshingly cool Sunday morning and nice end to the weekend with low humidity.
731 PM EDT Sat Jul 9 2022 Scattered showers along the Maryland border will taper off by late tonight, and clouds will continue to thin from north to south as high pressure builds across the region. High pressure will give us a refreshingly cool Sunday morning and nice end to the weekend with low humidity.
Discussion: Currently there are a few isolated showers across the region, with the highest concentration of activity along the frontal boundary in Kentucky. The highest instability is likely across southeast TN this afternoon where more sunshine has been present.
721 PM EDT Sat Jul 9 2022 Aviation -- Cool tonight, slightly warmer Sunday -- Low temperatures this morning across west-central Lower MI dropped solidly into the 40s. Tonight we expect more uniform lows in the lower 50s for most inland areas. Model guidance is consistent with Sunday being a little warmer.
Beautiful mid summer day across eastern Iowa and northwest Illinois with high pressure across the region into the Great Lakes. Quiet and seasonably cool weather is expected tonight with lows in the low/mid 50s east to around 60 F west. Sunday will be a bit warmer with highs in the mid 80s on average. The overall signal indicates warmer than normal temperatures being favored for an extended time frame.
/issued 230 PM CDT Sat Jul 9 2022/ SHORT TERM (Tonight through Sunday Night): Center of 500mb ridge has made its transition to the 4-Corners region of the Desert SW but continues to dominate South Texas with the 594mb isobar extending well off the Texas coast. The near 600 decameter ridge becomes orientated SW-NE from SW California to Missouri maintaining its grip on Texas and the RGV. Low temperatures tonight dip into the low to mid 70s with exception to near at 80 along the coast due to light and variable winds and clear skies.
Short range models and ensembles show the upper level ridge axis shifting eastward into the Great Plains on Sunday as a broad upper level trough exits the Pacific NW and rapidly moves eastward across Montana during the day. Models are trending slower with this frontal boundary, so continued to trend warmer with Sunday afternoon high temperatures in the 90s across most of southeast Wyoming with upper 90s to 102 for western nebraska. Expect some slightly cooler air to begin moving into central and east central Wyoming, so kept temperatures a few degrees cooler compared to areas further south. As the front moves south into the evening hours, expect some thunderstorm activity to develop and push east across the high plains.
, the ascending radiosonde measured dewpoint depressions of 7 degrees C at both 925 and 850 mb); hence, the higher convective inhibition energy. The synoptic setup features a tropical upper tropospheric trough (TUTT) cell centered over Cuba drifting westward. Only a trough was evident at 500mb, with no reflection below that. A lower- tropospheric ridge was most defined over the western North Atlantic, with a col region and corresponding weaker gradient flow over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico, southern Florida and Keys, and Straits of Florida. A high pressure cell centered over the central Atlantic Ocean and extending west to Florida will weaken through Sunday.
Diurnal convection will be limited to mountains well to our west in New Mexico as a persistent dome of high pressure continue to expand to the north and northwest, bringing the monsoon moisture plume with it.
316 AM CDT Sun Jul 10 2022 Building upper ridging in concert with increasing southerly low- level flow will support seasonably hot temperatures today in the 90s to near 100 degrees.
a degree or two cooler than normal. Skies will clear tonight with surface dew point depressions by dawn around 2F and very light winds at the surface and in the low levels. The upper-level pattern to start the week features a slightly flattened ridge across the western two-thirds of the CONUS with a slightly zonal yet progressive pattern stretching across the US/Canadian border.
246 AM CDT Sun Jul 10 2022 High pressure is over the Great Lakes, providing clear skies early today, and with light winds and a shallow moisture profile, we've been lowering the dewpoint gradually through forming dew out there. ERVIN Today's highs will be a few degrees warmer than yesterday, but in general,the lower 80s over Illinois, and mid 80s over Iowa and Missouri will be forecast, with dewpoints holding in the mid 60s for the most part. Tonight, this southerly flow will keep our dewpoints from radiating out efficiently, and thus, our morning lows will be warmer, in the mid 60s to around 70.
234 AM EDT Sun Jul 10 2022 A cold front pushes slowly south of the area tonight.
RMS High pressure ridging that has been dominate over the forecast area the past several days will shift east this evening into Sunday as an upper trough and cold front move across the area. We expect this cap to erode later this afternoon into this evening as the upper trough approaches and begins to shift the ridge axis east. The highest probabilities for severe thunderstorms will be along and north of a Livingston- Billings- Miles City-Baker line. For Sunday, the upper trough will move eastward over the Northern Rockies with scattered showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. However, the threat of severe weather is less on Sunday due to less instability from cooler surface temperatures and slightly lower dew points.
403 AM EDT Sun Jul 10 2022 A weak cold front will sink into the region today. Upper-level troughing will be over the region for much of the upcoming week keeping the chance of showers and thunderstorms each day. With the widespread cloudiness, instability will be limited, although stronger dynamics with a deepening 500mb trough and cooling aloft will allow storms to generate, focused near the front and shifting southward.
310 AM EDT Sun Jul 10 2022 Discussion/Marine --Warmer today, but not humid-- High pressure is overhead early this morning, but will drift east later today. We're still seeing the drier air from Ontario flow into the cwa, but that will change later today as the high moves east and a south to southwest flow develops. Highs today will climb into the lower to mid 80s, but dewpoints will remain in the lower 50s.
A few patches of cirrus at times will do little to stop temperatures from reaching the lower 80s as slightly modified high pressure holds across SE MI. Weak mid summer lake breezes provide the customary cooler conditions near the shorelines.
242 AM EDT Sun Jul 10 2022 Discussion/Marine --Warmer today, but not humid-- High pressure is overhead early this morning, but will drift east later today. We're still seeing the drier air from Ontario flow into the cwa, but that will change later today as the high moves east and a south to southwest flow develops. Highs today will climb into the lower to mid 80s, but dewpoints will remain in the lower 50s.
1152 PM EDT Sat Jul 9 2022 Aviation -- Cool tonight, slightly warmer Sunday -- Low temperatures this morning across west-central Lower MI dropped solidly into the 40s. Tonight we expect more uniform lows in the lower 50s for most inland areas. Model guidance is consistent with Sunday being a little warmer.
1146 PM CDT Sat Jul 9 2022 (This evening through Sunday) A weak cold front, if you can call it that with temperatures of 100 to 106 along it, extended from San Angelo to Brownwood this afternoon, as it washes out.
POPs in the higher end "chance" range were retained around the US Highway 84 category for this afternoon, where best chance for combined heat and humidity will be capable of supporting additional storms. On the topic of heat, anticipated daytime temperatures in the lower 90s and dew points around 75-80 will yield potential heat index values around 105-110 degrees for portions of our northeast LA and southern MS parishes and counties.
423 AM EDT Sun Jul 10 2022 High pressure is pushing any remaining humid air toward the Maryland border and will give us a refreshingly pleasant Sunday.
This suggested highs around 107 across swrn Nebraska where vertical mixing will be maximized ahead of the cold front. The intense mixing with the approach of the cold front in this area this afternoon should mix out the moisture lowering dew points in the 50s to around 60. The RAP model shows post-frontal moisture pooling behind the cold front.
324 AM CDT Sun Jul 10 2022 The cold front continues to move south early this morning, extending currently from near Cleveland, MS, to Tupelo, MS, to Lawrenceburg, TN, as of 3 AM. Taking a look at the larger view, the 599+ dam subtropical ridge has retreated westward and is currently centered near the Four Corners. A trough has set up over the eastern CONUS with relatively deep northerly flow advecting slightly cooler and drier air into the Mid-South. As the trough axis swings across the Southeast today, part of it will break away, eventually organizing into a cut-off upper low near the mouth of the MS River. After 5 days of wretched heat, high temperatures in the lower 90s will seem bearable, especially when accompanied by heat indices below 100 degrees.
Warm advection associated with this core of hot air aloft is also helping to generate some weaker convection along its periphery on the state line near Mobridge and in far eastern South Dakota. frontal passage is in phase in with the cooling aloft, and thus profiles stay stable as cooling/drying in the low levels reduces surface based instability despite cooling mid level temperatures.
225 AM EDT Sun Jul 10 2022 A cold front will move well south of our region today, stalling over SC.
An upper level ridge continues to dominate the weather pattern for the region, giving little chance for precipitation today. Overnight lows will continue to be near average in the low to mid 70s.