Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
THE LIGHT FREEZING/FROZEN PRECIPITATION HAS PUSHED EAST OUT OF THE REGION. WITH STRENGTHENING NORTHWEST WINDS ALONG AND BEHIND AN ONGOING STRONG COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE LOW LEVEL CAA CONTINUES WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE THERMAL ADVECTION SWITCHES TO NEUTRAL ADVECTION FOR A FEW HOURS INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
219 AM CST WED FEB 11 2015 COLD FRONT PERCHED TO THE NORTH WILL BE HEADING THIS WAY AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.
305 AM CST Wed Feb 11 2015 A cold front will continue to sweep through the region this morning, bringing with it a thick layer of stratus and gusty north northwest winds. Models have thus far poorly represented the amount of cloud cover moving down into the region today, so have trended toward the cooler side of guidance for max temperatures today, and expect little to no diurnal temperature rises due to cloud cover and cold air advection.
339 AM CST WED FEB 11 2015 COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING.
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION FROM THE NORTH ON WEDNESDAY. THE LOW CLOUDS WILL BE BETWEEN 5000 AND 6000 FEET. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION FROM THE NORTH ON WEDNESDAY. THE LOW CLOUDS WILL BE BETWEEN 5000 AND 6000 FEET.
A WEAK COLD FRONT OR WIND SHIFT LINE WAS PASSING ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. A STRONGER COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE UNITED STATES FROM CANADA WILL PASS ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS LATE TONIGHT. AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE OVER NORTH AMERICA THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO RIDE UP OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE THROUGH WESTERN CANADA ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY BEFORE DROPPING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST THURSDAY NIGHT. AS THE WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE RIDGE, LOWERING SURFACE PRESSURE IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES WILL BRING SOMEWHAT WARMER WEATHER TO FAR WESTERN KANSAS ON THURSDAY AS THE COLD HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER WESTERN KANSAS ERODES EASTWARD.
400 AM CST WED FEB 11 2015 POLAR COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH THE CWA THIS MORNING.
A LIGHT AND VARIABLE WEDNESDAY EVENING BREEZE WITH POSSIBLE LIGHT FOG/HAZE JUST AHEAD OF AN EARLY THURSDAY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. LAGGING SW PORTION OF THE THE H5 TROF THAT'LL BE MOVING THRU THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND MIDWEST WILL CUTOFF AND RETROGRADE BACK UNDER THE WESTERN RIDGE TOWARD BAJA LATER IN THE WEEK AND EARLY WEEKEND.
A COLD FRONT REACHED WICHITA FALLS. THE COLD FRONT WILL REACH METROPLEX TAF SITES BY MIDDAY. WITH THE COLD FRONT REACHING WACO AROUND 23Z (5 PM CST). ALTHOUGH THE LOW LEVELS WILL SATURATE TONIGHT. WE HAVE LOWERED THE POTENTIAL FOR A STRATUS SURGE AS THE LOW LEVELS REMAIN MIXED. THIS FRONT WILL ALSO PULL COOLER AIR. THE NEW MEXICO SHORT WAVE WILL SLOW AND FORM A CLOSED LOW IN NORTHWEST MEXICO BY THURSDAY.
A FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SPREAD LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY. EROSION OF MOST OF THE LOW DECK OF CLOUDS WILL OCCUR. THE LOWER DECK WILL PERSIST LONGEST IN THE CENTRAL TWIN TIERS AND SOME OF THE FINGER LAKES. WHILE THE HIGH THIN CLOUDS WILL ALSO ARRIVE THERE EARLIEST.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE FOR TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING AS NW FLOW ALOFT BECOMES ZONAL. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON. AND IN THE LOWER 40S TO AROUND 50 CENTRAL AND SOUTH. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN THIS AFTERNOON BUT TEMPERATURES WILL STILL RANGE IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.
GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS AND MVFR CIGS EXPECTED BY MID- MORNING AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS BUILDING IN ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO NORTHWEST TO THE NW OF THE LOW INTO THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE. THE INITIAL COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE. MODELS ARE DEFINITELY SIGNALING LIGHT PRECIPITATION AS UPPER LOW MOVES SOUTH ACROSS NEW MEXICO WITH EASTWARD EXTENSION OF SHEAR AXIS AND FRONTOGENETICAL CONTRIBUTION PRODUCING SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ESPECIALLY TOWARD NEW MEXICO BORDER WEDNESDAY.
356 AM CST Wed Feb 11 2015 (Today and Tonight) An upper trough near the Four Corners region will drop south today with a weak closed low developing over western New mexico. The low will drop south into adjacent northern Mexico tonight, to roughly along the Sonora/Chihuahua border by early Thursday morning. A cold front entering our northern counties early this morning will push south to near a Brownwood to San Angelo to Mertzon line by midday, then continue south to a Mason to Sonora line by 6 PM. The main chance of rain will be tonight, to the southwest of our area and closer to the aforementioned upper low. Overnight lows are expected to range from the mid 30s across our northern counties, to the lower 40s along the Interstate 10 corridor.
/ISSUED 906 PM CST TUE FEB 10 2015/ HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER TONIGHT.
317 AM CST WED FEB 11 2015 MAIN CONCERNS FOR THIS FORECAST CYCLE ARE CLOUDS AND LOW CHANCES OF RAIN TODAY WITH A COLD FRONT SAGGING SOUTH THROUGH THE STATE.
A FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SPREAD LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY. THIS WUD YIELD HIGHS ARND FRZG FOR THE LK PLAIN WITH UPR 20S EXPECTED ELSEWHERE, SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN EXPECTED BUT STILL A COUPLE OF DEGREES BLO NORMAL.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL THEN DEVELOP OVER THE GREAT BASIN STARTING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN FIRMLY IN PLACE THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND BRINGING MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BACK TO THE REGION. COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING RAPIDLY BUILDS BACK INTO UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING. THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN FIRMLY IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES AGAIN SHOULD BE ABOVE THE SEASONAL NORM AND REACH THE LOW TO MID 70S IN THE AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES DOWN INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ROTATING DOWN FROM CENTRAL CANADA WILL MOVE FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE NORTHEAST U. WILL HELP PUSH THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. ALLOWING THE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO BUILD DOWN THE PLAINS ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
A WEAK AND POORLY ORGANIZED UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSLATE EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TONIGHT. A SURFACE COLD FRONT WAS ANALYZED FROM WEST TO EAST ALONG THE I90 CORRIDOR ACROSS NORTHERN WY AND SOUTHERN SD WITH THE STRONGEST PRESSURE RISES PEGGED OVER EASTERN MT PER THE LATEST MSAS ANALYSIS. BUT EXPECT THE MOST WIDESPREAD PCPN TO STAY OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY. SUBSIDENCE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT AS THE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT CLEAR THE CWA. COOLER TEMPERATURES STILL EXPECTED FOR WED WITH GFS/NAM H7 TEMPS AROUND -6 TO -8 DEG C AT 21Z. SO OPTED TO GO WITH THE WARMER SIDE OF THE MOS SPECTRUM.
1013 PM MST TUE FEB 10 2015 NORTH TO SOUTH ORIENTED UPPER JET OVER WRN UT CONTINUES TO DIG A STRENGTHENING TROUGH ACROSS CO THIS EVENING. RADAR ECHOES THIS AFTERNOON LOOKING MORE LIKE THE END OF APRIL THAN EARLY FEBRUARY! INSTABILITY TODAY HAS HELPED TO FIRE OFF SOME SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF EAST-CENTRAL UTAH AND WEST- CENTRAL COLORADO. THE SNOW LEVEL HAS HUNG AROUND 7500 FEET TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING AT MANY LOCATIONS THAT ARE REPORTING SNOW. A WEAK CLOSED LOW AT MID LEVELS WILL DEVELOP EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND BRING SUB- ADVISORY SNOW AMOUNTS TO AREAS MAINLY EAST OF LAKE CITY FROM ABOUT MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE CENTER OF THE LOW DROPS SOUTH INTO NEW MEXICO DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
BUFR SOUNDINGS ARE ON THE FENCE WITH ICE CRYSTALS THEREFORE ADDED VERY LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE OR FLURRIES TO THE FORECAST. WEDNESDAY HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL BECOME CENTERED OVER EXTREME NORTHEAST MONTANA.
SHIFTED THE LOW POPS FURTHER E TO COVER KBHK. BROADUS AND EKALAKA AND WENT WITH A SNOW/LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE MIX BASED ON RAP SOUNDINGS.
A strong cold front has moved into NE NM/TX Panhandle and is expected to arrive as early as 09Z at HOB and as late as 17Z at FST. There is an upper trough over the four corners region with southwest flow over the CWA. A cold front associated with an upper trough moving over the Great Lakes region will move into the area on Wednesday. The upper trough over the four corners region will move southward over southern New Mexico by Wednesday evening. The increase in lift with this trough will allow for a chance of rain across the CWA beginning Wednesday lasting through Thursday. Models show this trough/low being cut off from the upper flow and meandering toward the southwest on Thursday.
302 AM EST WED FEB 11 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION TODAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND WILL SHIFT INTO NEW ENGLAND ON THURSDAY.
AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS BRIEFLY BEFORE THE NEXT SHOT OF COLD AIR ARRIVES FOR THE LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEK. RATHER WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EASTWARD AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE MAIN EFFECT OF THE COLD FRONT WILL BE REALIZED AT THE VERY TAIL END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AND BEYOND AS SOME RESTRICTIVE CEILINGS AND GUSTY WINDS WILL DEVELOP. SERIES OF COLD FRONTS.
910 PM PST Tue Feb 10 2015 Dry and warmer conditions return for the remainder of the week. A ridge of high pressure is building over the region and will keep dry warm conditions for northern interior California this week. High clouds will continue to spill over the ridge and into the region for Wednesday and possibly on Thursday as well.
GENERALLY SPEAKING, DEWPOINTS ARE SLIGHTLY HIGH AND TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY COOLER NOW THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY, SO MORE COVERAGE OF FOG IS LIKELY.
305 AM EST WED FEB 11 2015 A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SPINNING ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC IS PUSHING A FEW CLOUDS ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION WERE 5-10 DEGREES COOLER THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY. A MORE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL DEVELOP BY TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST. WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOW 70S. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN PUSH INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA DURING THE DAY.
LIGHT SNOW AND FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL LINGER UNTIL THEN. EXPECT THE FREEZING DRIZZLE TO ACCOMPANY THE LOW AS IT CROSSES THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA. ADDED FREEZING DRIZZLE TO THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA. AS IT DEPARTS THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE NORTHLAND INCREASES FOR WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A STRONG ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AS MID-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OUT THERE WILL BE DRYING ALOFT WHICH MAY LEAD TO AREAS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE AS BEING OBSERVED AT GRAND FORKS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ADDED A GENEROUS AMOUNT OF PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE TO THE WX GRID. A FEW FLURRIES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE AS STRONGER H5 TROUGH DIVES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. SFC RIDGING PUSHES EAST ACROSS MN WED NIGHT. RESULTING IN STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING AND A RETURN TO COOLER TEMPERATURES.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL KEEP TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY DRY WHILE HIGH CLOUDS FROM AN OFFSHORE WARM FRONT STREAM OVER THE AREA. THE WEAK WARM FRONT WILL BRUSH WESTERN WASHINGTON WITH LIGHT RAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT UPPER RIDGE IS AMPLIFYING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AS TROUGH MAKES ITS WAY TO THE EAST COAST. COOLER BUT MORE SEASONABLE TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH A COLD AIRMASS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 30 ACROSS NORTHWEST SD TO THE LOWER 40S IN NORTHEAST WY AND SOUTHWEST SD. CANADIAN LOW PRESSURE WILL HELP PUSH COLD AIR EASTWARD AND ALLOW WARMER AIR TO RETURN TO THE AREA ON THURSDAY.
A FEW SHOWERS WILL ALSO OCCUR EAST OF TUCSON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
THE LOW CLOUDS FROM EARLIER TODAY RETREATED INTO EASTERN TENNESSEE THIS EVENING. THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE LOW CLOUDS HAS FILTERED INTO MOORE AND FRANKLIN COUNTIES IN TN. BELOW NORMAL LOWS TONIGHT WITH TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 20S. THEN WINDS BEGIN TO INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA.
1251 AM EST WED FEB 11 2015 A LATE DAY COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN THE TRANSITION TO FRIGID TEMPERATURES WHICH WILL PERSIST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. SUBSIDENCE UNDER A BUILDING RIDGE HAS KEPT SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR ELSEWHERE. THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT PASSAGE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE DRAMATIC AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION IS CONCERNED WITH THE LOW CENTER PROJECTED TOWARD NEW YORK AND A MID LEVEL DRY SLOT RAPIDLY ENCROACHING INTO UPPER OHIO VALLEY AIRSPACE. WITH SNOW SHOWER COVERAGE INCREASING UNDER A FRIGID MID LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH. ESPECIALLY IN THE USUAL UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE RIDGES AND ZONES IN LEE OF THE LAKES. NOT MUCH CHANGE WAS NEEDED FOR THE ONGOING 1-3 FORECAST WITH 2-4 INCHES ON THE RIDGES.
159 AM EST WED FEB 11 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. BEFORE A DRY COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY.
WHILE THE REST OF THE MID STATE IS IN THE LOW TO MID 20S. COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FREEZING FOG DEVELOP THIS MORNING ESPECIALLY NEAR RIVERS AND LAKES. FORCING A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE MID STATE TONIGHT.
Temperatures will be slightly warmer than last night with lows in the low to mid 30s. No precipitation is expected with this frontal passage as the low moisture depth will be the limiting factor.
IT SHOULD BE A GOOD DAY TODAY WITH MORE SUNSHINE AND WARMER TEMPERATURES AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY. THE DAY WILL START WITH SOME CLOUDS ON THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU AND ACROSS SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND NORTHEAST TENNESSEE BUT THESE CLOUDS SHOULD DISSIPATE DURING THE MORNING AS THE LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURE INVERSION MIXES OUT. THE WARM UP WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL BE DROPPING INTO THE REGION THIS EVENING IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. ESPECIALLY ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW SNOW SHOWERS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE A VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY.
337 AM CST Wed Feb 11 2015 As of 3 AM, a cold front was making steady progress southeast across eastern Kansas and northern Missouri. This cold front will quickly pass through the Missouri Ozarks this morning. A strong short wave trough will then dig southeast through the western Great lakes and towards the Ohio River Valley from late today into tonight.
138 AM EST WED FEB 11 2015 A PRESSURE RIDGE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL EXTEND THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY.
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER NORTH DAKOTA THURSDAY MORNING. SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW MAY FOLLOW THE HIGH PRESSURE AS AN UPPER LEVEL JET SHOULD BE IN A FAVORABLE POSITION FOR BROAD SCALE LIFT.
343 AM CST WED FEB 11 2015 1047MB ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OF SLAVE LAKE WILL DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTH TODAY AND TONIGHT AND BE CENTERED NEAR FARGO ND BY 12Z THURSDAY MORNING. FOR HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S NORTH TO UPPER 40S SOUTH. THE SECOND SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR TONIGHT IS EXPECTED TO TRAP MOISTURE AROUND THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH AS THE ARCTIC FRONT BACKS INTO WRN NEB.
HIGHS WILL BE COOLER TODAY WITH GOOD COLD AIR ADVECTION AS 850 MB TEMPS FALL TO AROUND ZERO TO 2 CELSIUS. AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE OVER NORTH AMERICA THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO RIDE UP OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE THROUGH WESTERN CANADA ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY BEFORE DROPPING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST THURSDAY NIGHT. AS THE WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE RIDGE, LOWERING SURFACE PRESSURE IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES WILL BRING SOMEWHAT WARMER WEATHER TO FAR WESTERN KANSAS ON THURSDAY AS THE COLD HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER WESTERN KANSAS ERODES EASTWARD.
1228 AM EST WED FEB 11 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT AND WILL CREST OVER THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND WILL SHIFT INTO NEW ENGLAND ON THURSDAY.
1251 AM CST WED FEB 11 2015 COLD FRONT PERCHED TO THE NORTH WILL BE HEADING THIS WAY AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.
COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT SO WENT AHEAD AND LOWERED LOWS JUST A TOUCH. THURSDAY WILL SEE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFT SOUTHEAST QUICKLY WITH RETURN FLOW AND WARMER AIR TRYING TO BUILD IN. SO THE HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE PRETTY COLD.
UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION FOR DRY WEATHER THROUGH THURSDAY. PATCHY VALLEY FOG HAS BEEN OBSERVED IN BAKER CITY AND MCCALL AND IS ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE LOWER TREASURE VALLEY/UPPER WEISER BASIN THIS MORNING. FOG POTENTIAL DIMINISHES TONIGHT BUT STILL POSSIBLE IN THE LOWER TREASURE VALLEY AND LONG VALLEY.
243 PM EDT SUN APR 12 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF THE COAST AND A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST.
404 PM MDT SUN APR 12 2015 THE WEAK COLD FRONT WAS THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON PRODUCING GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS.
341 PM EDT SUN APR 12 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE AND FAIR WEATHER WILL FOLLOW AND CONTINUE THROUGH MID WEEK. THEN FROM THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. INSULATION FROM CLOUDS AND THE SOUTHERLY FLOW NOW THAT THE HIGH HAS SHIFTED EAST WILL MODERATE TEMPS OVERNIGHT. FORECAST QUESTION OF THE DAY IS THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY. AFTER THAT MODELS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING SLOWLY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK.
250 PM MST SUN APR 12 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL EXIT THE REGION TONIGHT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN FROM THE WEST ALLOWING FOR CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMING TEMPERATURES.
With strong lift ahead an upper low near El Paso, the short range models, including the Texas Tech WRF and the HRRR indicate the line of storms to move into Crockett County 5-6 PM. This looks good as GFS 0-6 KM shear was 20-35 KTS with the highest values along the I-10 corridor. West Central is somewhat dry-slotted Monday, at least south of the I-20 corridor as the upper low moves slowly through. A weak cold front will push through the Big Country late morning and afternoon, bringing the the best chances of storms to the north.
AN EARLY-AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS REVEALS A ROBUST HIGH PRESSURE CELL CENTERED NEAR THE DELMARVA PENINSULA. THE SYSTEM BRIDGES A DIFFUSE EAST-WEST BAROCLINIC ZONE ALONG THE GULF COAST WHICH SEPARATES CONTINENTAL POLAR AIR TO ITS NORTH AND THE MARITIME TROPICAL AIR COVERING MUCH OF THE GULF BASIN AND FLORIDA KEYS.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE INCREASING MONDAY IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
With high pressure briefly in place, Monday will be a really nice day across the Northern Rockies.
/ISSUED 1133 AM CDT SUN APR 12 2015/ HIGH PRESSURE HAS SHIFTED TO THE EAST COAST THIS MORNING. A WARM FRONT IS DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI. THE FRONT ALONG THE GULF COAST WILL GRADUALLY MOVE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT THROUGHOUT THE DAY. A COLD FRONT WILL ALSO BE APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST ON MONDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE THAT HAS PROVIDED A NICE DRY WEEKEND OVER MID TN WAS MOVING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE HIGH HAS MOVED EAST. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP TOWARD MID TN FROM THE NORTHWEST AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG THE FRONT.
LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED ALONG THE KANSAS/COLORADO BORDER. THERE MAY BE A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT IN NORTON. COOL HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. WINDS WILL WEAKEN AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH MOVES OVER. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST WITH LOWS TONIGHT FALLING INTO THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S AND HIGHS TOMORROW CLIMBING INTO THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70 IN A FEW LOCATIONS. BY 19/00Z THE SYSTEM WILL BE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA AND THIS WILL ALLOW FOR HIGH PRESSURE TO MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AND INFLUENCE THE AREA FOR THE REST OF THE EXTENDED. A TROUGH IS SLIDING ACROSS THE REGION AND WILL BRING GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
316 PM CDT SUN APR 12 2015 AREA OF RAIN THAT SKIRTED THE NORTHERN PART OF THE AREA EARLIER TODAY HAS DISSIPATED, RAIN AND THUNDER CHANCES WILL MARKEDLY INCREASE AREAWIDE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE NEXT UPPER SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT IMPACT THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
A LOW LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE WAS OBSERVED WITHIN AND TO THE WEST OF THE HIGHEST DEW POINTS EXTENDING OVER THE ROLLING PLAINS. THERE IS A CHANCE IT MAY BE ALL QUIET UNTIL AN UPPER LOW AFFECTS THE AREA TONIGHT. SINCE WE WILL BE IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE UPPER TROUGH. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RETREAT BACK WEST THIS EVENING AND WILL BE SUPPLEMENTED BY A DEEPER MOISTURE PLUME AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH OBSERVED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION COUPLED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH WILL LIKELY BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT FROM A HUDSON BAY LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE PANHANDLES. MOIST LIFT ABOVE THE FRONTAL ZONE WILL LIKELY BE ABLE TO COUPLE WITH LIFT FROM THE UPPER TROUGH IN CREATING ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY.
337 PM EDT SUN APR 12 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF THE COAST AND A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST.
602 PM EDT SUN APR 12 2015 HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE ON MONDAY WITH WARMER AIR CONTINUING TO MOVE NORTHWARD INTO OUR REGION.
123 PM EDT SUN APR 12 2015 HIGH PRESSURE EXIT EAST TODAY AND TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT CROSSES MONDAY NIGHT.
THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO MOVE IN TO THE AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT.
307 PM EDT SUN APR 12 2015 HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE ON MONDAY WITH WARMER AIR CONTINUING TO MOVE NORTHWARD INTO OUR REGION.
648 PM EDT SUN APR 12 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE AND FAIR WEATHER WILL FOLLOW AND CONTINUE THROUGH MID WEEK. NO CHANGE TO THE LOWS AT THIS TIME. THEN FROM THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. INSULATION FROM CLOUDS AND THE SOUTHERLY FLOW NOW THAT THE HIGH HAS SHIFTED EAST WILL MODERATE TEMPS OVERNIGHT. INCREASED THE HIGHS A LITTLE. FORECAST QUESTION OF THE DAY IS THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY. AFTER THAT MODELS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING SLOWLY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK.
NEAR THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE. HOWEVER REDEVELOPMENT OF AN ALMOST BROKEN DECK IS OCCURRING THIS MORNING ALONG THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ENTITY IN NW ALABAMA. MODELS SEEM TO BE UNDERESTIMATING THE SHARPNESS OF THE TROUGHING ASSOCIATED WITH THE DISTURBANCE MOVING ALONG THE FRONT. AND DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS DO DROP NEAR THIS TROUGH AXIS FROM 4 TO 8 DEGREE AT 500 MB. MODEL RH VALUES IN THE UPPER LEVELS ALSO ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH AXIS SEEM TO BE A BIT LOW BASED ON 500 MB ANALYSIS. A WARM FRONT LIFTING N THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT MAY TRIGGER A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS AROUND 06Z BUT THERE IS LOW/MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE OVERALL COVERAGE OF THESE SHOWERS.
MEANWHILE, A LOW IS DEVELOPING IN TX SUPPORTED BY A CUT-OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW. THIS STATIONARY/WARM FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR THROUGH MONDAY.
108 PM EDT SUN APR 12 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY AND MOVE OFFSHORE MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
306 PM PDT Sun Apr 12 2015 Weak high pressure over region for fair skies tonight.
LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE PLAINS. NEXT FOCUS WILL BE PRECIP WITH PRIMARY UPPER WAVE AND LOW LEVEL TROUGH. 925 TEMPS SUPPORT TEMPS INTO THE 60S SO NOT MUCH CHANGE IN AIRMASS BEHIND DEPARTED TROUGH. ANY CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH TROUGH SHOULD CLEAR OUT FAIRLY QUICK DURING THE MORNING HOURS.
IT IS INTERESTED TO NOTE LATEST GUIDANCE AND OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THE TROUGH IS NOT HEADING EAST AS QUICKLY AS ORIGINALLY THOUGHT. THE SHORT TERM FORECAST CONCERNS ARE FOCUSED ON THE LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AND THE GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN BRANCHES OF THE UPPER FLOW ARE CURRENTLY IN PHASE AND WILL COMBINE TO SWEEP AN UPPER TROUGH EAST OF THE ROCKIES THIS AFTERNOON AND ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS THIS EVENING. AHEAD OF THIS UPPER TROUGH. BUT TEMPERATURES WILL BE 5 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER THAN SUNDAY AND SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS UNDER THE CENTER OF THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA SLIDING ACROSS THE PLAINS ARE EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY LESS THAN 15 MPH.