Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Models indicate the low-level jet will be aimed across MN into adjacent northern Ontario during the night. Most guidance show the low-level jet remaining w of Upper MI tonight, and while an extension of weakening elevated instability does edge into the w overnight, the main area of instability holds back to the w, suggesting convection will probably remain w of Upper MI tonight. Will see some cooler nights Tue night through Thu night. Looks dry until later Sat at the earliest, maybe even until late Sunday, when a low pressure system will trek northwest of the CWA and bring a cold front in. If stronger winds do occur, Tue/Wed would be the time frame as a high pres ridge builds toward the area in the wake of cold front passage Mon night/early Tue morning.
1212 PM MDT SUN AUG 28 2016 18Z TAF CYCLE Weak low pressure aloft to be a little south of the Four Corners during the fcst period. As a weak upper low slides east to near the Four Corners today, an active weather day is in store for much of the region. Showers and thunderstorms will continue into the overnight hours as the upper low remains over northwest New Mexico. The upper low is forecast to weaken somewhat Monday but east and southwest winds are expected to continue the flow of moisture into the state.
455 PM EDT SUN AUG 28 2016 A weak cold front will sag slowly south tonight and Monday morning.
316 PM EDT SUN AUG 28 2016 A cold front will approach Maine and New Hampshire tonight and move off the coast early monday morning.
As the upper low moves closer to the Coastal Bend Monday expect the moist axis to be over the Metro Hubs and will probably see scattered showers and thunderstorms redevelop and track through the hubs between 16z-23z possibly multiple times. /ISSUED / Localized heavy rain is continuing to fall along the coast in Brazoria County this morning, as the upper level low that was sitting just east of Galveston continues to slide slowly west along the coast. The rotation about the low should drag in some isolated cells into Liberty County within the next hour.
/Tonight/ Southerly flow in the lower levels with push of theta-e advection into the southern CWA today. Kept temps a few degrees warmer though with the high dewpoints, therefore only expect temps to fall into the mid to upper 60s across the CWA.
Deep layer ridging is still in place this afternoon with scattered weak showers developing in the deep easterly flow.
Passage of a trough across southern Canada will allow a weak boundary to slip into our region from the north late today. Ridge builds in and strengthens as flow aloft will back in response to next Pacific trof, and although moisture will be limited we may see a few showers or weak tstms develop over the mountains.
The period will begin with an upper level ridge centered from the Mid MS Valley east to the Appalachians.
Along with warmer temperatures, afternoon thunderstorm activity initially confined to the eastern Arizona mountains may begin to descend towards lower elevation communities.
Warm and mostly sunny conditions will continue for the next several days as a ridge of high pressure builds to our east.
130 PM EDT SUN AUG 28 2016 A few showers and thunderstorms are possible across the area today as a weak cold front moves through.
A flat westerly flow aloft was noted across SE Idaho early this afternoon as the next upstream low pressure system moved into the WRN Canadian coastal waters.
The main exception is the possibility of scattered TSRA near the terminals but expect KHSV to have the highest potential and have included a drop to MVFR btwn 28/19Z-28/23Z.
Synoptic Setup: A cool trough begins over the Northwestterritories and runs down through Alberta and Southern Saskatchewan where it fizzles out into zonal flow across Montana. Hot High Pressure has developed over Nevada and is slowly spreading north into Idaho in the form of a ridge. cold front will continue movingthough the area this afternoon cooling off the region with stable high pressure overnight.
229 PM CDT SUN AUG 28 2016 Broad high pressure remains anchored over the D. region this afternoon with a convergence boundary/upper disturbance evident along the higher terrain of the Appalachians. This dry air along with the building high pressure and weak subsidence could keep the region mostly dry.
359 PM EDT SUN AUG 28 2016 A weak cold front will sag slowly south tonight and Monday morning.
Warm but less humid conditions will be introduced under building high pressure through midweek.
For areas that have not received rain today, which is most of the CWA, it was warm and humid with temps in the mid to upper 80s and dewpoints in the lower to middle 70s.
458 PM EDT SUN AUG 28 2016 High pressure will slowly slide off the New England coast through tonight.
Coverage elsewhere has been mostly confined to the higher terrain of SE OK. Upper level ridging will become better established across the plains towards the end of the work week.
137 PM CDT SUN AUG 28 2016 Started the day stuck between an upper low over the 4 corners region and one on the TX coast with the sub tropical ridge extending in from VA. By mid week the upper ridge will become more established over the Central Plains with the next upper trough swinging over the NW late in the week.
At least widely scattered showers and thunderstorms will remain in the forecast for most of the week with plenty of moisture in place and the upper low to our west only slowly moving eastward. The lowest chances will remain across the eastern zones as the mid to upper ridge axis tries to nudge in.
The persistent upper level ridge over the East Coast will slide westward over our region early in the week keeping temperatures above normal and humidity elevated.
1044 AM PDT Sun Aug 28 2016 In the wake of a strong cold front, expect mild temperatures and lighter winds today.
SHORT TERM (Now through Monday night): Upper trough continues to spin off the East Texas coast, wrapping moisture around the east side away from south Texas. Models finally have this trough dissipating during the next 24 hours, with general easterly flow develop at all layers aloft.
Otherwise, a shower or thunderstorm may occur over the higher terrain of Southwest Montana this afternoon and early evening, but the potential is low.
One trough is offshore form High Island and the other offshore from SE Louisiana.
405 PM EDT SUN AUG 28 2016 High pressure will slowly slide off the New England coast through tonight.
155 PM EDT SUN AUG 28 2016 High pressure along the New England coast gradually works offshore today, while a cold front approaches from the Great Lakes tonight.
Highs will hover just above average values for the date in the low 80s.
High pressure will remain over the Mid Atlantic through Monday before moving offshore.
Several convective limiting factors this afternoon compared to yesterday as upper low off the SC/GA coast continues to wrap drier air over the state, the area is currently on the subsident side of the tropical wave/disturbance moving through the FL Straits and the stronger and deeper easterly winds are decreasing the coastal convergence. So will continue the forecast of a weak area of low pressure in the SE Gulf of Mexico Monday to bring moderate to strong E-SE flow across the FL peninsula advecting deeper Atlantic moisture with PWATs above 2 inch especially south of I-4 for widespread convection and heavy rainfall possible leading to localized flooding concerns.
208 PM EDT SUN AUG 28 2016 A weak cold front will sag slowly south tonight and Monday morning.
316 PM EDT SUN AUG 28 2016 High pressure across New England will move offshore today while a tropical system, once Fiona but now TD Eight, will continue to trek closer to the Carolina Coast. However, have noted some low/mid level moisture across the higher elevations on soundings along with a weak mid-level impulse. But if clouds do not materialize and enough moisture gets trapped in the lowest levels, fog could then develop. Lows around 70, apart from the cooler temperatures across the higher terrain. Highs in the low/mid 90s, with the higher terrain in the mid/upper 80s.
/Issued 720 AM EDT SUN AUG 28 2016/ Upper ridge continues to weaken somewhat over the next couple of days but remains the dominant feature over the region. Should see some increase in convective coverage each day as moisture slowly increases and deepens and the weak wave traversing the western Atlantic on the underside of the upper ridge edges toward the Carolina/Georgia coastal area.
The Bermuda high is nosing into the Mid-Atlantic with a low amplitude ridge extending into the NE and ern Canada.
Very warm conditions exist across western and central North Dakota this Sunday afternoon, ahead a cold front that is just pushing into the northwest part of the state. Temperatures are mainly in the mid 80s to mid 90s behind a warm front that has pushed through western and into central ND. Behind the cold front which is now moving through the northwest, there is a temporary increase in clouds and slightly higher humidities with some slightly higher winds with gusts around 20 mph. Farther to the east, mainly along and east of the Highway 83 corridor, dewpoints remain in the mid 60s to lower 70s. Cold front moves through the area tonight with near zonal flow over the area late tonight through Monday. Cooler on Monday with highs from the mid 70s north to mid 80s south.
Issued by National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard 1010 AM PST Wed Feb 22 2017 Aviation Discussion Update A low pressure trough moving through California today will bring cooler and partly cloudy weather and areas of strong winds in the mountains and deserts.
241 PM MST Wed Feb 22 2017 Upper analysis shows a weak wave moving through the northern plains, and a trough pushing in over the west coast. Low pressure will deepen tonight as trough swings over the Rockies. Cold air will wrap into the area with easterly winds, and snow will expand northward across much of SD as the low moves across NE. Best frontogenesis still looks to be along the SD/NE border, with the higher amounts expected there. The 12Z NAM has come in with a slightly stronger low with a more northerly track, bringing the higher amounts of snow northward.
A cold front will move south across West Central Texas Thursday night as a strong storm moves across the central Plains and Great Lakes.
This will lead to slightly cooler temps for Thu for portions of Central KS, with temps south of the stalled frontal boundary remaining well above normal. Models continue to trend a little further north on the path of this low pressure area, With current trend taking across the northern half of KS. Models show the stalled frontal boundary in Central KS pushing gradually back into Neb as a warm front on Thu. Ketcham Latest medium range model solutions suggest ridging will build across the region for the weekend. This system may bring increasing chances for precipitation and another surge of cooler air as we head towards the middle of the week. A cold frontal boundary will drop south across the area on Fri, which will lead to drier air and NW winds across the region.
1123 AM EST Wed Feb 22 2017 Weak low pressure near Florida will keep onshore flow over the area with low chances of showers through Thursday.
High pressure moving across the region today will keep light winds in place that will slowly veer through the day before becoming southeast through the end of the period. /issued 424 AM CST Wed Feb 22 2017/ SHORT TERM (Today through Thursday): High pressure aloft and at the surface will continue to build across the RGV today. The mid level ridging will keep northwest flow and strong subsidence over the region. the 500mb ridge will be centered just to the east Deep South Texas. the downsloping effect from the higher terrain over northern Mexico will create even warmer conditions Thursday afternoon.
At least northern wisconsin will see more clouds today for slightly cooler but still well above normal temperatures. Southwest boundary layer winds were also producing enough mixing and an offshore wind to keep dense fog, located over far southeast Wisconsin and lower Lake Michigan near the warm front, south of the area. Weak ridging late tonight into Thursday morning will produce a brief period of quiet weather, along with cooler but still above normal temperatures.
High Approaching low pressure will move across southern Wisconsin this evening into early tonight, dragging a cold front with it. Latest models have slowed a bit with the progression of the stronger low pressure system to approach on Thursday. Breezy northeast winds off of Lake Michigan will combine with the mostly cloudy conditions and colder temps aloft to result in a much cooler day tomorrow. Though highs will still be well above normal for late February, temperatures will run about 20-25 degrees cooler than today.
Otherwise, expecting partly to mostly cloudy skies today, with cooler temperatures over northern areas.
Tonight and Thursday will see much cooler weather sweep across the forecast area with rain and snow showers increasing in coverage and intensity. Snow levels expected to drop to the lower valley floors, although recent warm weather will hamper accumulating snowfall and result in minimal impact should showers pass through. Temperatures will be well above seasonal norms once again today with the wheels falling off this early spring weather tonight as the cold front arrives. Temperatures on Thursday will be a good 10 to 20 degrees cooler for most areas.
A more substantial trof was approaching the W coast. The flow overhead will become more anticyclonic tonight as this trof moves inland today and progresses further inland tonight. As the low conts moving E.
345 PM CST Wed Feb 22 2017 At H5 upper trough coming on shore in the Pacific Northwest Large closed low over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Mainly zonal flow over the lower 48 with the exception of Pacific Northwest. Upper closed low forms over the Great Basin tonight with diffluence aloft over western Nebraska developing through the early morning hours of Thursday. Upglide and cold front moving south into western Nebraska with a mix of precipitation early as the cold air moves south.
The base of a broad upper trough has descended south into the Baja where it's picking up moisture off the warmer Pacific. The base of the trough will dig across the Great Basin, undercutting Montana for the most part. The trough is split with the Arctic portion centered over Hudson bay.
SHORT TERM (Tonight through Thursday Night): Ridging aloft and high pressure at the surface have continued to provide plenty of subsidence throughout the entire column this afternoon across Deep South Texas, leading to hot and dry conditions once again. Thursday, there will be elevated fire spread and growth concerns again with slightly higher winds shifting to the south/southeast as a low pressure system develops across the Central Plains.
Otherwise, drier and much cooler conditions are forecast through late week with chilly overnight/morning temperatures. Cooler daytime temperatures are expected today with our cooler and drier airmass, with high temperatures only in the low to mid 50s in the lower elevations and 40s more common in the hills.
Expect breezy winds this afternoon followed by much colder temperatures Thursday as a passing cold front moves through the area. Upper level clouds are streaming across the northwestern half of the state this morning with a trough positioned over the west coast resulting in southwest flow over Arizona. The base of the trough (currently off the Pacific coast) will make its way into the southern Great Basin by this evening, tightening pressure gradients and causing an increase in wind speeds across the forecast area today. The trough will push a cold front through Arizona tonight keeping breezy conditions going through the overnight hours.
343 PM EST Wed Feb 22 2017 Low pressure over Wisconsin will move eastward into Quebec on Thursday. This will allow a weakening cold front to sag into Northern Ohio. THis boundary will stall over central Ohio and drift northward as a warm front Thursday night.
The north winds will continue to shift southward across the FA ushering in cooler air. With the cooler air coming southward today and the north winds remaining in the 5 to 10 mph range tonight, do not expect fog to become an issue again.
/Issued 414 AM CST Wed Feb 22 2017/ An upper trough over the Pacific Northwest and western states will track east across the Intermountain Region tonight and the Rockies on Thursday.
Conditions are expected to improve to VFR by early afternoon as low pressure to our SE spins away. (ISSUED 517 AM CST Wed Feb 22 2017 ) IFR/LIFR conditions will gradually improve this morning as low pressure moves away, and pressure gradient increases. Today Through Thursday Night Satellite imagery shows a well-defined upper low near the Arklamiss region this morning.
348 PM CST Wed Feb 22 2017 At 3 PM, a short wave trough was moving across northern Minnesota. Soundings continue to suggest that this precipitation will be mainly in the form of rain during the evening and as the atmospheric column cools after midnight that this precipitation will change to a wintry mix of snow, rain, and freezing rain.
Low temps Tonight will remain mild in the lower 50s.
939 AM MST Wed Feb 22 2017 Current surface analysis shows low pressure over central SD, with cold front now through most of the forecast area except for south central SD. Temps are in the upper 30s and 40s most areas, a bit cooler across the higher Black Hills. Cooler weather today, though still above average, with highs in the mid 40s to mid 50s. EC and GFS are in pretty good agreement, with the GFS a bit stronger than the EC as the upper low passes east of the area.
A cold upper trough will cross the region today and tonight.
249 PM EST Wed Feb 22 2017 Low pressure moving east through southern Canada will drag the boundary back north as a warm front. leading to a mild night tonight and warmer day Thursday. A weak shallow cold front will try and push south across the area by Thursday evening.
Models and water vapor imagery are depicting a closed upper low south of the Florida panhandle in the northeast corner of the Gulf of Mexico. Models show this low moving east-southeast through the short term period and will be located over the Bahamas by Thursday night. Upper level ridging will build back over the Gulf of Mexico behind this low. Lingering cloudiness and a stray shower can't be ruled out through Thursday morning, but most of the area should be rain free on Thursday, with the highest chances of rain over the inland counties. As for temperatures, some areas have warmed up to average temps in breaks in cloudiness, while others have remained a few degrees cooler under cloudy skies.
236 PM CST Wed Feb 22 2017 Warmer than normal, but generally pleasant conditions will prevail through the short term. Should see overnight low temperatures bottom out in the low to mid 50s north and the upper 50s south. Afternoon temperatures should be a few degrees warmer tomorrow, topping out in the upper 70s and lower 80s under sunny skies.
Cooler Weather Returns for the Stubborn fog and cloud cover this morning held temperatures down slightly this afternoon.
Overall, pops (and thunder chances) should decrease with the loss of heating and as the low(s) continue to pull off to the east.
Westerly flow aloft developing overhead will advect an 850mb thermal ridge into the region and high temperatures are expect to warm in to the mid-upper 80s most locations this afternoon.
Upper level low is centered along the northern Gulf coast this morning, just to our southwest. Wind flow on the east side of the low has maintained a moisture axis across east Central Alabama overnight, resulting in widespread light rainfall. The upper low will rotate to the southeast today, into the Gulf of Mexico, pushing the moisture axis to the east. Upper level winds become northerly and high pressure builds in at the surface across the north.
252 PM CST Wed Feb 22 2017 We will begin the short term period with a continuation of near record warmth as surface ridging continues ahead of the next advancing cold front over the Plains and Midwest states. Morning low temps Thu in the 50s will be followed by day time highs in the lower to mid 70s despite the presence of considerable cloud cover much of the day.
Mixing of environmental air as well as the cooler temps aloft has the potential to produce some gusty conditions as well as small hail within any stronger storms which develop. rain chcs will remain quite high this evening and slowly begin to taper overnight as the low relocates to the E coast.
246 PM EST Wed Feb 22 2017 Weak low pressure near Florida will keep onshore flow over the area with low chances of showers through Thursday.
The H5 low over the lower Mississippi Valley will move southeast toward southern Florida by this evening.
Ridge aloft and high pressure at sfc today will keep winds less than 10 knots and skies clr. High pressure moving across the region today will keep light winds in place that will slowly veer through the day before becoming southeast through the end of the period. /issued 424 AM CST Wed Feb 22 2017/ SHORT TERM (Today through Thursday): High pressure aloft and at the surface will continue to build across the RGV today. The mid level ridging will keep northwest flow and strong subsidence over the region. the 500mb ridge will be centered just to the east Deep South Texas. the downsloping effect from the higher terrain over northern Mexico will create even warmer conditions Thursday afternoon.
Radar imagery this morning and observation sites show widespread light snow and isolated freezing rain across Northeast Montana. Templer Previous discussion - Upper low will be tracking from the Pacific Northwest to the Great Lakes through the end of the week. This will result in a broad trof developing over the northern Rockies and prairies and pulling colder air out of the Arctic. Area of precipitation sliding east along this convergence zone, quickly transitioning from rain to snow with temperatures hovering in the low 30s. Dry air intrusion from the north could result in some freezing rain near the Canadian border, although chance of precipitation is low.
310 PM CST Wed Feb 22 2017 The low-mid level cloud cover that blanketed northern and central LA earlier today, has finally cleared almost all but a sliver of southwest AR, thanks to a pesky upper level low pressure system slowly moving east-southeast across the Gulf of Mexico towards FL. The light and variable sfc winds of today will become more south-southeasterly tonight, as an ua trough shifts east to north of the Four-corners region and its sfc counterpart nears the Pahandle region. In addition, the quick passage of a low-amplitude ua ridge coupled with an uptick in 850 mb temps will provide for an upsurge in temps /a few 70s, mainly in the 80s/.
As this system moves off to the east later today a larger upper level trough will move into the Pacific northwest. The upper level trough will remain over the region tonight into Thursday with partly to mostly cloudy skies and isolated showers.
254 PM CST Wed Feb 22 2017 A weak trough is stalled across the region this afternoon. The Southerly winds in front of the trough is allowing warm temperatures today which are well above normal. A strong low pressure system will be moving into the region Thursday afternoon which will significantly increase the Southerly winds and the moisture transport across the region.
On a positive note, the cloudy skies will keep the temperatures cooler than what we have seen the past several days, but still a couple of degrees above average.
236 PM CST Wed Feb 22 2017 Deep moisture associated with an upper level low will continue to move off to our east tonight. Highs are expected to reach the lower 70s.
Similar dry and warm weather conditions are expected on Thursday with more places reaching the lower 90s as dry-line pushes farther to the east with southwest winds dominating the boundary layer.