Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
An upper ridge axis over the area today tilts eastward on Friday in response to an upper wave approaching the Oregon coast. Besides an increase in high cloud cover will also see surface winds pickup on Friday as winds aloft mix to the higher terrain, and lower elevations respond to a tightening surface pressure gradient.
1010 AM EST Thu Nov 10 2016 High pressure today. A mostly dry cold front crosses Friday, with much cooler air for the weekend.
423 AM MST Thu Nov 10 2016 The upper level high over low block remains mostly intact over the over southern and central Rockies and high plains regions from today through Friday night.
902 AM EST Thu Nov 10 2016 The cold front continues to push south through the area and is currently across Sarasota/Desoto/Highlands counties. Cooler and drier air will continue to filter into the area as high pressure builds behind the front and will remain in place through much of the weekend. The cold front is through Sarasota, and expect continued clearing through the day as the front continues to push south through the area. Fairly light N/NE flow will continue across the waters as a cold front continues to push south through the southern waters through the rest of the day. High pressure will build into the area and remain across the waters through much of the weekend with conditions remaining below any cautionary levels.
There will be a trof axis north of the forecast area through much of the day. Todays highs will be pleasant and the lower 70s. We will see cooler temperatures for Friday in the wake of the front.
520 AM CST Thu Nov 10 2016 A cold front at 3 am was just entering NW MN. Southwest winds ahead of the front have kept temperatures very mild, with most locations remaining in the 40s, with areas immediately downwind of the Buffalo Ridge, like Canby and Marshall staying in the 50s. Unfortunately, the cold front will be moving through pretty quick, with it pretty much clear of the entire MPX by around 18z. Tonight, CAA from the day will continue right through the night as high pressure builds into the Dakotas. This cloud cover would be associated with a lobe of vorticity rotating around a closed low over northern Quebec. As mentioned above, cooler air behind the front will drop temperatures back tomorrow - with highs likely remaining in the the mid to upper 40s across MN/WI.
/12Z TAF/ Closed upper low remains over the S Rockies west of El Paso. /ISSUED 336 AM CST Thu Nov 10 2016/ The upper low was located in northern Mexico just south of the AZ/NM border. Over the next few days, the upper low will begin to fill. The models show the low beginning to open up on Friday and then shear out as it moves eastward across the Southern Plains over the weekend.
303 AM MST Thu Nov 10 2016 The upper level high over low block remains mostly intact over the over southern and central Rockies and high plains regions from today through Friday night.
After some patchy early morning fog in rural areas, high pressure will provide us with blue skies, light WSW breezes, and afternoon temperatures in the lower and middle 60s today. Tonight the high will weaken and a cold front will approach from the northwest. That cold front will pass through here Friday morning. Highs Friday will be in the lower and middle 60s, probably early in the afternoon before cool air starts coming in from the north later.
Winds will remain out of the S/SW through the day and breezy ahead of an approaching cold front.
Dry cold front moving through the region this morning. Northwest winds will pick up today as the pressure gradient tightens behind a departing trough. High pressure, with clear skies and light winds will move in tonight.
High pressure will keep dry and mild weather over the region today into Friday.
Weak cold front will drag through the region through the day, reinforcing mild, dry conditions. The frontal boundary will continue to push south across the region into tonight, with clearing skies and cooler temperatures in its wake. Behind the front, high pressure will build across the region with dry and pleasant weather heading into the weekend.
High pressure will continue to build in from the northwest today behind the cold front. Temperatures will rise from the seasonably cool start this morning into the low to mid 70s for most locations, except upper 60s for coastal southeast Georgia.
A low pressure trough extended from the Dakotas into southeast Colorado. A cold front over the northern Plains this morning will move southeast through the day as an upper level trough moves across southern Canada and the northern border states. Have continued to trend a bit cooler with Friday temperatures as a result of the northerly winds behind the frontal passage, so have high temperatures in the mid/upper 50s. With the center of the high tracking just northeast of the CWA Friday night, clear skies and light northerly winds will result in good radiational cooling and frigid conditions.
High pressure will continue to bring unseasonably warm and dry conditions through the remainder of the week.
350 AM MST Thu Nov 10 2016 A cold front will continue to sweep across southeast Wyoming early this morning. Moderate pressure rises were spreading into Converse county at 10z, so we believe the cold front is likely located near Douglas at this hour.
A quiet pattern will continue as a deep upper level trough moves off to our east, replaced by a broad ridge today. 5" across our area, and high pressure will continue to dominate at the surface. Light northerly flow will continue to advect cooler air into our region, resulting in inland lows dipping into the 40s by the early morning, and 50s near the coast.
The showers are associated with a small vort max wrapping around an upper low which is closed off over the New Mexico bootheel/northern Chihuahua and is almost stationary this morning. The low is not expected to move much today or tonight and in the absence of any significant forcing and a thinning of mid- level moisture we expect to see a little more sunshine today, especially in the Rolling Plains and far southern Texas Panhandle.
Weak cold front will slip through the CWA early this morning (currently positioned from Livingston to near Roundup moving S/SE) with a northerly wind after daybreak. This will shift to a northeast wind for much of the area by late morning resulting in cooler conditions than yesterday.
604 AM EST Thu Nov 10 2016 A Canadian cold front will bring a few light rain or snow showers to NY and PA tonight into Friday.
Cold front is about through the forecast area and will be monitoring how much temperatures recover in cold advection. UPDATE Minor adjustments to winds to adjust for current location of the cold front. As of 09z, a weak cold front continued to make its way across the forecast area with northwest winds across the Devils Lake basin and far northern Red River Valley. Even with plenty of sunshine again today, the cooler northwest flow will keep temperatures in the 50s across the majority of the area (possibly low 60s across the far south), although still plenty mild for this time of year. Highs topping out in the 40s will feel quite a bit cooler than the record readings as of late but still a bit above average.
850 AM EST Thu Nov 10 2016 High pressure centered along the Gulf of Mexico coast will extend build into our area today. A cold front is expected to cross our area during Friday, then large and strong high pressure arrives for the weekend.
/issued 409 AM CST Thu Nov 10 2016/ While cooler and drier air continues to backdoor SW into the region this morning ahead of sfc ridging over OK/AR. the IR satellite imagery depicts an extensive area of cirrus quickly spreading NE across E TX/Wrn LA ahead of the broad upper low that has retrograded W into Nrn MX. With the reinforcement of the cooler/drier air mass into the area.
These are associated with an upper level speed max moving around an upper low centered near El Paso, which may provide enough lift to allow a few showers to move into the offshore coastal waters later this afternoon. /12Z TAF/ Closed upper low remains over the S Rockies west of El Paso. /ISSUED 336 AM CST Thu Nov 10 2016/ The upper low was located in northern Mexico just south of the AZ/NM border. Over the next few days, the upper low will begin to fill. The models show the low beginning to open up on Friday and then shear out as it moves eastward across the Southern Plains over the weekend.
With the ridge portion of block extending well north into Canada. A deepening trough should develop over the eastern half of the continent in response to this. Locally, this has the impact of keep the area dry as cooler high pressure settles into the area.
to the lower 60s in SW Virginia and NE Tennessee. Chattanooga Airport, TN 70 38 69 44 / 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 65 36 65 40 / 0 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 66 35 66 41 / 0 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 62 32 61 34 / 0 0 0 0.
701 AM EST Thu Nov 10 2016 High pressure over the Ohio Valley will slide off to the south today providing an increasing southwest flow and warmer temperatures. A cold front will drop across the area later tonight and bring colder air again on Friday. High pressure will build across the lower Great Lakes and Ohio Valley this weekend. Will forecast the high end of the max temperature guidance given the upstream temperatures yesterday in the same air mass. Highs near 60 or in the lower 60s. The models continue to trend somewhat faster with the cold front tonight with a frontal passage between midnight and before daybreak from north to south.
High pressure surface and aloft will keep plenty of subsidence in place and pleasant weather across the area this afternoon with a few strands of fibratus working across at times.
1023 AM EST Thu Nov 10 2016 High pressure will briefly build overhead for today into tonight before a reinforcing cold front moves through Friday.
High pressure will dominate through the bulk of the period, though a weak closed low will set up across southeast AZ today and Friday.
Split flow block in place to our west, with upper low sitting and spinning over Northern Mexico. Our area will remain far enough away from the upper low such that it will not have influence on our weather for the remainder of this week and into the first part of the weekend.
1026 AM EST Thu Nov 10 2016 High pressure centered to the southwest will keep dry weather over the region today. A cold front will cross the area early Friday, followed by more high pressure and dry air for the weekend.
535 AM CST Thu Nov 10 2016 A cold front at 3 am was just entering NW MN. Southwest winds ahead of the front have kept temperatures very mild, with most locations remaining in the 40s, with areas immediately downwind of the Buffalo Ridge, like Canby and Marshall staying in the 50s. Unfortunately, the cold front will be moving through pretty quick, with it pretty much clear of the entire MPX by around 18z. Tonight, CAA from the day will continue right through the night as high pressure builds into the Dakotas. This cloud cover would be associated with a lobe of vorticity rotating around a closed low over northern Quebec. As mentioned above, cooler air behind the front will drop temperatures back tomorrow - with highs likely remaining in the the mid to upper 40s across MN/WI.
736 AM EST Thu Nov 10 2016 High pressure today. A mostly dry cold front crosses Friday, with much cooler air for the weekend.
With strong mid October heating, high temperatures around the area should rise into the lower to mid 80s, a good 10 degrees or so above seasonable norms (currently 74 in Muscle Shoals and Huntsville). The 850 mb ridge axis will remain intact across the southeast U.
638 AM CDT MON OCT 17 2016 Strong south winds will remain gusty through the day and ahead of a weak cold front which will enter northwest Oklahoma early Tuesday.
An upper ridge will continue its slow trek eastward from the Southern Plains and into the Southeastern U.
Water vapor imagery early this morning shows deep upper low circulation near the Pacific Northwest with models initializing very strong jet stream moving well inland. The Northern Plains will initially be under the influence of upper level cyclonic flow, between upper level low over eastern Canada and a strengthening ridge over western CONUS.
Otherwise, the 17/12Z upper air sounding from KLCH shows further influence from the upper level ridge overhead, with drier air in the mid levels, lowering PWAT and Mean RH values from this time yesterday.
Strong wind gusts up to 35kt and an early morning cold front will be the main aviation concerns. Winds will stay out of a southwesterly direction through 00z before a cold front shifts the winds out of a northerly direction. Meanwhile a broad mid-upr high/ridge extends across NRN Mexico and Texas. Expect one more day of potentially record setting highs across the region, although believe the combination of a cirrus deck across the region and modest lowering of H5 heights will lead to slightly cooler highs than what we saw yesterday. A s/wv in the jet flow will help push a cold front into the region early Tuesday morning finally providing cooler conditions.
/issued 404 AM CDT MON OCT 17 2016/ Height fields will edge slightly lower today as a trough races across the central and northern Rockies. Alone this would imply cooler temperatures, however a stout thermal ridge will relocate farther south and serve to keep deep mixing with near record heat on tap for all of the region. After midnight, attention turns to a dry cold front accelerating south through the Panhandle before clearing a large portion of the CWA toward daybreak.
Northeast Montana lies on the farthest northern extent of this flow with a cool pacific trough moving through the area. Modified arctic air has made it about two thirds of the way south into the Canadian Prairies behind a cold front.
739 AM EDT Mon Oct 17 2016 A trough of low pressure crossing the area will dissipate today.
Refer to the CLIMATE section at the bottom of this discussion for some climatological stats regarding the high temperatures for today. This will keep skies mostly clear and drop high temperatures to the low to mid 70s.
1012 AM EDT Mon Oct 17 2016 High pressure will maintain warm weather until passage of a mid week cold front. As for temperature, the warm start under extensive cloud cover, warm advection, and eventual insolation will support temperatures about 15 to 20 degrees above average, which will be further exacerbated on Tuesday as warm advection intensifies in advance of an approaching mid level trough. By late day Tuesday, the cold front associated with the trough will bring a chance of showers, and possibly a thunderstorm across northwest PA.
Main story for today will be the low pressure system moving eastward across southern SD. Things get a bit interesting this afternoon and will have to watch where the warm front sets up. RAP/HRRR solutions take a slightly more northward track compared to the GFS/EC in regards to the low pressure/warm front placement. Wind speeds were increased today into this evening as well as models continue to trend higher with wind speeds on the back side of the low. This change was more noticeable for south central SD and the southwest CWA where winds are expected to be breezy/windy this afternoon on the back side of the low pressure.
1056 AM EDT Mon Oct 17 2016 A weak cold front will stall over the Fingerlakes Region today before retreating back to the north as a warm front tonight and Tuesday.
Temperatures were still running about 15 degrees above normal, with 2 am readings ranging from the upper 50s along the Cumberland Plateau to the lower and middle 60s elsewhere. Low level gradient tightens up a bit today, as we find ourselves in between a high pressure center to our east, and a developing storm system over the Central Plains and Upper Midwest.
/ISSUED / Unseasonably warm and near record high temperatures will continue for a couple more days across much of Southeast Texas with a persistent onshore flow at the surface and ridging in the mid/upper levels.
An upper level ridge is beginning to exert its influence on the southeast United States and over the next 48 hours, we'll see its effect here in the mid-state. High pressure influences surface and aloft will provide for SKC/VFR conditions thru 18/12Z.
938 AM EDT Mon Oct 17 2016 A trough of low pressure crossing the area will dissipate today.
Showers have ended for the most part across the lower elevations of interior NorCal as the slow moving frontal system has shifted south into central California and weakened. Further south, weak ridging should provide a chance to mostly dry out today with partly cloudy skies. Strong ridging building along the West Coast will push precipitation chances north of the region beginning Tuesday.
The upper level low that has brought showers and thunderstorms the past few days is continuing to move off the SE US Atlantic coast, with high pressure building in from the west behind it. At the surface, a ridge of high pressure extending from the mid Atlantic coast southwest into the northern Gulf will drift south, becoming more east-west oriented and shifting surface winds over our area to a more southerly direction. The aforementioned high pressure at the surface and building in aloft will maintain afternoon highs above seasonal average, with temps Monday afternoon ranging from upper 80's inland to around 80 near the coast.
856 AM EDT Mon Oct 17 2016 A broad ridge of high pressure to the Northeast will extend across Southeast Georgia this afternoon. Highs will range from around 80 at the beaches, to the lower to middle 80s inland.
A near repeat will occur Tuesday with clouds and patchy fog in the morning followed by upper 80 and low 90 conditions as the mid- and upper-level ridge persists over Texas.
At the surface, the subtropical ridge axis remains centered off the Carolina coast, which will keep generally northeast flow in place across the forecast area through the short term period. Tuesday will feature a similar setup, although upper level ridging building into the Nature Coast will make the environment even more stable there. Temperatures will top out in the mid to upper 80s both afternoons, with lows tonight ranging from the low 60s to low 70s.
Thermal ridge at 850 mb last evening was rather impressive for mid October, with 25-30 degree C values extending from Mexico northeast into Colorado and western Kansas. The thermal ridge at 700 mb was a little farther east, with the axis stretching into southeast Nebraska. Winds will turn to the northwest as a weak cold front pushes through the region tonight.
653 AM CDT MON OCT 17 2016 Lee trough will result in gusty south-southwesterly winds across central/eastern Kansas Today. This will push a cold front southward through the forecast area tonight into Tuesday morning. Cooler, more seasonable air will settle in behind this front tonight into Tuesday.
Cold front to move into northeast Oklahoma tomorrow.
With an upper level ridge in place, highs will reach upper 80s to mid 90s which is 10 to over 15 degrees above normal. The upper level ridge that has been dominating the weather across the region over the weekend will shift eastward tonight and Tuesday.
1151 AM EDT Mon Oct 17 2016 A trough of low pressure crossing the area will dissipate today.
A strong upper level ridge will remain over the Mid South today with continued low level southerly flow. High pressure aloft and at the surface prevail across the Mid-South.
/issued 638 AM CDT MON OCT 17 2016/ Strong south winds will remain gusty through the day and ahead of a weak cold front which will enter northwest Oklahoma early Tuesday.
1055 AM EDT Mon Oct 17 2016 High pressure over the Mid-Atlantic will shift southward Monday and remain to our south through midweek.
High pressure centered near the Carolinas has maintained a tightened pressure gradient across the Florida Keys. Island communities are breezy with temperatures in the lower 80s. Dewpoints are in the lower 70s, a few notches below previous days. An upper level low apparent on water vapor imagery has shifted to east of the Florida Peninsula. The anticyclonic flow in the lower levels should limit precipitation coverage, especially north of the reef tract.
The low will track across southern South Dakota this afternoon - with a strong Pacific cold front racing southeast across western and north central Nebraska. Otherwise warm air aloft will quickly mix to the surface, and temperatures should rapidly rise into the lower and mid 80s along and ahead of the front. A little cooler across northwest Nebraska, but still anticipate mid 70s or so behind the front. Lows most areas will drop into the 30s, but north central Nebraska will remain in the lower to mid 40s. An upper level trough begins to dig across the Rocky Mountains on Tuesday. Cooler air begins to filter into the region ahead of the approaching trough. Highs Tuesday will be in the low to mid 60s.
/issued 403 AM CDT Mon Oct 17 2016/ WV imagery shows the upper lvl ridge has moved east a bit over the past 24 hours, now centered near the upper Texas Gulf coast. Combined w/forecast RH of 15% or less in the lower elevations of the Guadalupes, concerns turn toward fire wx. Unfortunately, the upper ridge is still forecast to develop east over the next few days, w/concurrent drops in thicknesses/heights resulting in a cooling trend. Late tonight/Tuesday, a cold front will try and backdoor into the area, but models suggest it'll make it only midway into the CWA before return flow resumes.
Still expect 30 to 40 mph wind gusts this afternoon across much of the area and temperatures climbing into the low to mid 50s. Have likely or better precipitation chances for the mountains, with chance to likely type pops for the lower elevations. This will limit precipitation potential for the lower elevations, though isolated to scattered showers will move through the area producing some light precipitation. With the jet to the south of the area temperatures will be cooler today despite the down slope winds. Trof axis shifts into the area for Tuesday with instability showers possible over the western half of the forecast area.
Unseasonably warm daytime temperatures return to north and central Georgia as ample sunshine and building upper-level ridge dominate through Tuesday.
1000 AM EDT Mon Oct 17 2016 High pressure will continue to ridge across the area for the next couple of days keeping the E/NE flow in place.
734 AM EDT Mon Oct 17 2016 An upper level ridge will build through Monday.
A weak ridge of high pressure aloft moving across during the latter half of the week may bring a brief respite from the showers late in the week or over the weekend.
Showers have ended for the most part across the lower elevations of interior NorCal as the short wave energy from the latest wx system has moved well east of the area. JHM Further south, weak ridging should provide a chance to mostly dry out today with partly cloudy skies. Strong ridging building along the West Coast will push precipitation chances north of the region beginning Tuesday.
A few localized gusts over 50 mph will still be possible in the high country through the afternoon but overall conditions will be improving. Light showers along the Wyoming border will be dropping into the northern Colorado mountains through the day as a cold front progresses through the region. Temperatures cooler across the state today but especially the north where high temperatures have been met for the day and will continue to fall or stay steady.
The other concern was focused on winds and temperatures today, along with the low potential for convection in northern Iowa.
1039 AM EDT Mon Oct 17 2016 High pressure will keep the unseasonably warm weather through the first half of the week. A frontal system brings unsettled and cooler weather by mid week, lasting through late week. High pressure then takes over providing a dry and warm afternoon. Therefore, will go on the warmer side of MOS lows. Building upper level ridge across the southeastern U.