Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
420 PM EDT SAT SEP 19 2015 CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FEATURE THE COLD FRONT NOW AS OF 1930Z ACROSS CENTRAL KENTUCKY MOVING EAST. AS THE FRONT MOVES EAST INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF EASTERN KENTUCKY. THE STALLED FRONT OVER THE EAST TOMORROW WILL ALLOW FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON BUT WITH MUCH COOLER AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO LOWER 70S. CLEARING SKIES ON SUNDAY NIGHT WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN WILL ALLOW FOR COOLER TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S IN SOME OF THE DEEPER VALLEYS AND BLUEGRASS REGION. SOME STEEP RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL.
449 PM CDT SAT SEP 19 2015 156 PM CDT FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE REGION AS THE COLD FRONT IS NOW WELL EAST OF THE REGION STRETCHED ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO THROUGH WESTERN KENTUCKY. THE HIGH BUILDS OVERHEAD THROUGH THE NIGHT LEADING TO CLEAR SKIES AND WEAK WINDS. THE LOW TEMPS I INHERITED LOOKED VERY GOOD SO ONLY MADE A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO LOWER THE TYPICAL LOW SPOTS BY A DEGREE OR TWO. THE HIGH SHIFTS NE OF THE REGION OVER SOUTHEAST QUEBEC BY SUNDAY EVENING. BUT IT WILL LEAD TO A BEAUTIFUL LATE SUMMER/EARLY FALL DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 70S AWAY FROM THE LAKE. JEE 156 PM CDT THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL BE OVER THE LOCAL AREA TO START THE PERIOD.
AND CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTH ALONG/AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT IS MOVING INTO THE DELTA. THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH THROUGH SUNDAY. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER THAT NIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS THE REGION.
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY AND THEN SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT.
107 PM CDT SAT SEP 19 2015 CEILINGS WILL LOWER OVERNIGHT WHEN LIFT OVER THE COLD FRONT WILL HELP GENERATE SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN OR CENTRAL THIRD OF OKLAHOMA. AS THE RIDGE CENTERED OVER WEST TX COMES INTO PLAY. MUCH COOLER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TODAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FROM THE MID 70S NORTHWARD TO THE LOW 80S SOUTHWARD. THE HIGHEST CHANCES WILL LIKELY BE DURING THE MORNING HOURS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL OK.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHES SOUTHWEST FROM THE LOW. WITH MANY OBS UPSTREAM SHOWING DEW POINTS IN THE LOW 50S. THE EXCEPTION BEING THE AREAS CLOSEST TO DOWNTOWN CHICAGO WHERE TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN THE LOW/MID 50S. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL SUN WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS. TEMPS GENERALLY WILL REMAIN SEASONAL AROUND 70 TO THE LOW 70S. BEACHLER 223 AM CDT THE BULK OF THE EXTENDED PERIODS WILL CONTINUE TO BE INFLUENCED BY A LARGE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE.
434 PM CDT SAT SEP 19 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS TEXAS. COURTESY OF A COOLER AIRMASS AND UPSLOPE FLOW. THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SUBSIDES SOMEWHAT AND NORTHWEST FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE AREA. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL START BUILDING AGAIN ACROSS THE PANHANDLES AND BRING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BACK.
236 PM EDT SAT SEP 19 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. A COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION FOR THE START OF THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TODAY. TEMPERATURES ACROSS SE PORTIONS OF THE FA WILL BE WARMER THAN NW PORTIONS OF THE FA. THIS WILL PROVIDE FOR DRY BUT COOLER CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 70S ON SUNDAY.
AS WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS IN ALOFT. MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING CONTINUES TO LINGER OFF THE SOUTHEAST U. THIS TROUGH IS SUPPORTING A CLOSED LOW OFF THE CAROLINA COASTLINE. THIS LOW WILL REMAIN QUASI- STATIONARY AS IT IS BLOCKED BY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING SOUTH FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION WILL MOVE EASTWARD AND DEEPEN. THEN BECOMING A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE CAROLINAS BY MID WEEK.
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT: THE FLAT/PANCAKE 500 MB RIDGE REMAINS PARKED OVER SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH SUNDAY.
MODELS HAVE A WEAK UPPER TROUGH MOVE ACROSS TONIGHT.
1258 PM CDT SAT SEP 19 2015 /18Z TAFS/ COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH MOST OF THE MAJOR AIRPORTS SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE EXCEPTION OF WACO. EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO STALL AND BECOME LESS DEFINED THIS AFTERNOON. /ISSUED 240 AM CDT SAT SEP 19 2015/ THE COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED ALONG A LINE FROM FORT SMITH TO SOUTH OF LUBBOCK AT 07Z/2AM AND MOVING SOUTHEAST NEAR 18 MPH.
A PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OFF THE NORTHERN BAJA COAST TONIGHT.
157 PM CDT SAT SEP 19 2015 SOUTHERLY WINDS TONIGHT NORTH OVER THE COLD FRONT, WHICH HAS PASSES INTO NORTH TEXAS, ARE EXPECTED TO CREATE SUFFICIENT LIFT TO GENERATE RAIN AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA EARLY SUNDAY.
AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG THE COAST THIS MORNING, AND IT WILL GRADUALLY MOVE INLAND TODAY. AS IT DOES, THE SURFACE THERMAL TROUGH (ALSO SITUATED ALONG THE COAST) WILL EDGE INLAND. THIS WILL RESULT IN ONSHORE FLOW, CLOUDS, AND MUCH COOLER WEATHER ALONG MUCH OF THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE TODAY. ON THE FLIP SIDE, IT WILL BE ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY EVERYWHERE INLAND FROM THE COAST WITH TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY'S READINGS, IF NOT A TOUCH WARMER. THE RIDGE AND THERMAL TROUGH SHIFTS EAST OF US TOMORROW, AND A FRONT CURRENTLY ALONG 135W WILL APPROACH THE COAST.
It will be cooler, with highs in the lower 70s. The returning warm front and an approaching 95kt jet streak could trigger these storms.
Highs this afternoon will only climb into the lower to middle 60s. An upper level low will move over the Great Lakes region and settle there for the next few days. Upper level northwesterly flow, thanks to the slow moving upper low over the Great Lakes, will dominate the weather pattern for much of this week. This more fall/winter like pattern will bring a bit cooler weather to the Ozarks for the coming week. In addition to the cooler temperatures, several rounds of energy will move through the northwesterly flow and bring the chance for showers and isolated storms nearly every day through the week and into the start of the coming weekend.
/ISSUED 443 AM CDT MON APR 20 2015/ THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MAKE STEADY PROGRESS SE CNTRL LA/MS THIS MORNING. WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR SPILLING SE IN ITS WAKE. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES SOME POST-FRONTAL CU ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE 850MB TROUGH OVER PORTIONS OF EXTREME NE TX/SW AR/NW LA. LONGWAVE TROUGHING WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE CNTRL CONUS DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HRS. WITH SFC RIDGING SETTLING SE INTO THE REGION BY THIS EVENING. THE ONLY FLY IN THE OINTMENT COULD BE AN INCREASE IN AC LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT FROM THE WNW AS IT ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. 850MB THETA-E RIDGING NEAR/JUST N OF A RETURNING WARM FRONT WITHIN THE DIRTY WNW FLOW MAY YIELD ISOLATED CONVECTION MAINLY ALONG/N OF THE I-30 CORRIDOR OF NE TX/SW AR TUESDAY NIGHT.
SUBSIDENT NORTHWEST FLOW WILL STEADILY BACK TO ZONAL WESTERLIES AS THE NEXT UPPER LOW MAKES LANDFALL ON THE CALIFORNIA COAST. A LLJ WILL SET UP MONDAY EVENING ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF WEST TEXAS.
STRONG UPPER RIDGE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH CLEAR SKIES. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE APPROACHING THE WEST COAST ON TUESDAY.
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS 524 AM CDT MON APR 20 2015 A PREFRONTAL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED STRONG/SEVERE CONVECTION HAS NOW PUSHED EAST OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY THIS MORNING. AND THE MAIN COLD FRONT IS NOW PUSHING ACROSS THE REGION. BUT A DECK OF LOW STRATUS IS MOVING BACK INTO THE AREA AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS REMAINS BACK TO THE WEST. AS THAT UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY. UPPER TROUGHING WILL LINGER OVER THE EASTERN CONUS/ATLANTIC COAST AREA THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF BREAK TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS SURFACE RIDGING SHIFTS ACROSS THE AREA. IT WILL BE RATHER CHILLY TUES MORNING WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S.
443 AM CDT MON APR 20 2015 THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MAKE STEADY PROGRESS SE CNTRL LA/MS THIS MORNING. WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR SPILLING SE IN ITS WAKE. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES SOME POST-FRONTAL CU ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE 850MB TROUGH OVER PORTIONS OF EXTREME NE TX/SW AR/NW LA. LONGWAVE TROUGHING WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE CNTRL CONUS DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HRS. WITH SFC RIDGING SETTLING SE INTO THE REGION BY THIS EVENING. THE ONLY FLY IN THE OINTMENT COULD BE AN INCREASE IN AC LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT FROM THE WNW AS IT ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. 850MB THETA-E RIDGING NEAR/JUST N OF A RETURNING WARM FRONT WITHIN THE DIRTY WNW FLOW MAY YIELD ISOLATED CONVECTION MAINLY ALONG/N OF THE I-30 CORRIDOR OF NE TX/SW AR TUESDAY NIGHT.
LIGHT WINDS MAY ALLOW FROST DEVELOPMENT OUTSIDE OF THE CLOUD COVER WHERE TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S.
A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY LOCATED FROM JUST S OF COT TO NEAR TIVOLI WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE S AND IS EXPECTED TO BE S OF THE CWA BY APPROX 08Z-09Z. THE INITIAL COLD FRONT WAS MOVING OUT OF THE TEXAS HILL COUNTRY AT THIS TIME WITH THE COLDER AIR LAGGING BEHIND INTO NORTHWEST TEXAS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE TEN DEGREES OR SO COOLER ON MONDAY COMPARED TO TODAY.
Rather cool and blustery conditions are in store for Monday in the wake of the cold frontal passage. High temperatures will only reach the lower and middle 60s. A cool and unsettled weather pattern will become established this coming week as a deep upper low evolves over the Great Lakes region and a northwesterly flow regime develops.
COOL NIGHTS AND MILD DAYS INTO TUESDAY AS A CANADIAN COLD FRONT WHICH PUSHED THROUGH THE AREA LAST NIGHT USHERS IN A WELCOME CHANGE FROM THE LAST COUPLE OF WEEKS OF WET AND AT TIMES STORMY CONDITIONS. AS THE HIGH TRUNDLES OFF TO THE EAST TUESDAY NIGHT, GULF MOISTURE RETURNS AS DOES THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. COOLER THAN NORMAL TODAY AND TNITE WITH SOME COLD ADVECTION HOLDING TEMPS IN THE 70S UNDER SUNNY SKIES.
628 AM EDT MON APR 20 2015 UNSETTLED AND WET WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TUESDAY.
THEN SOMEWHAT COOLER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO MID WEEK. UPPER LOW IN SOUTHEAST MANITOBA THIS MORNING WILL DRIFT EAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. STILL SOME LOWS WILL LIKELY DROP TO FREEZING IN OUR NORTH. BUT WINDS WILL BE LESS OF A FACTOR AS UPPER LOW GRADUALLY MOVES AWAY.
THEN WE MAY SEE SOME REDEVELOPMENT IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT AND UPPER VORT MAX PUSH THROUGH AND SOME INSTABILITY IS ABLE TO RECOVER A LITTLE. TEMPS WILL BE COOL TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S.
SIMILAR WEATHER SCENARIO EXPECTED MONDAY WITH ISOLD HIGH BASED SHOWERS GENERATING MAINLY VIRGA OVER/NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN CENTRAL AND WEST AND ISOLD TO WDLY SCT WET STORMS FROM THE FAR NRN SANGRE DE CRISTOS EAST AND SE TO THE NE HIGHLANDS AND PLAINS. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL FAVOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NORTH AND WEST.
THIS IS FURTHER COMPLICATED BY COLD FRONT BACKDOORING INTO THE AREA. -HOWERTON MEDIUM RANGE MODELS STRUGGLING ONCE AGAIN WITH TRANSITION IN UPPER FLOW AS TROUGH/LOW IN THE SOUTHWEST EJECTS INTO THE PLAINS WHILE ANOTHER WAVE MOVES INTO NORTHWESTERN US.
TUESDAY LOOKS A LITTLE MORE MUNDANE WITH AN INVERTED RIDGE NOSING OUT OF CANADIAN INTO THE CWA.
/ISSUED 218 PM CDT Sun Apr 19 2015/ Northwest flow aloft over the region today will transition to west/southwest flow through the week as an ua trough over the central U. A cold front will continue to drop south into the area, with gusty northerly winds behind it. Will continue to carry a slight chance of thunderstorms in the Davis Mountains as temperatures will warm enough over the higher terrain for perhaps a thunderstorm or two.
347 AM MDT MON APR 20 2015 THE PREDAWN WATER VAPOR LOOP REVEALED A LONG WAVE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION. A UPPER RIDGE WAS SITUATED ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST. BENEATH THIS RIDGE. THE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EAST AND EXIT THE EAST COAST BY TUESDAY MORNING.
327 AM CDT MON APR 20 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE MID SOUTH EARLY THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST TODAY AS A SURFACE COLD FRONT SWEEPS EAST OF THE REGION AS WELL. COOLER TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED WITH HIGHS REMAINING SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MID SOUTH THROUGH TUESDAY WITH CONTINUED DRY AND SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.
AND WINDS WILL SHIFT TO A MORE WESTERLY DIRECTION AND BECOME GUSTY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH AROUND MIDDAY.
THE WET PATTERN CURRENTLY ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA WILL TRANSITION TO A COOLER DRIER PATTERN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BROAD UPPER LOW THAT WILL STALL OUT OVER EASTERN CANADA BY MID WEEK. THE LAST BEST SHOT OF RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW IS CURRENTLY OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND INDIANA AND HEADED NORTHEAST.
Larger scale upper trof that has resulted from phasing of the systems across the plains continues to drop ripples of energy southward through the west side of the trof. Another high pressure builds southward through the northern plains on Tuesday.
Winds today will be gusty outside of any thunderstorm in the wake of the cold front. Highs will range from the lower to mid 60s. High pressure ridging in from the south will bring drier weather tonight and clearing skies. Temperatures will fall into the lower to mid 40s. For Tuesday the morning hours will be dry under the influence of the high pressure.
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS LOCATED OVER SOUTHEAST MAN. UPPER LOW FORECAST TO CARVE OUT A LARGE UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES.
Another low pressure system will move into the region by the middle of the week bringing cooler temperatures and continuing the threat of showers or thunderstorms into the end of the week, mainly over the mountains. Temperatures are a little cooler through much of the valley early this morning compared to 24 hours ago due to stronger onshore flow.
EARLY MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS STILL HAD THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE DELTA REGION BUT WEST OF THE NATCHEZ TRACE. NO ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED OVER OUR CWA TODAY ALTHOUGH A BAND OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WILL SWING EAST ACROSS OUR REGION ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERING THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CONUS. THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN A NORTHWEST FLOW OVER OUR CWA WHICH WILL INITIALLY AID IN DRY WEATHER OVER OUR REGION THROUGH TUESDAY THEN HELP CONTRIBUTE TO WET WEATHER ACROSS OUR REGION BY MID WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
359 AM CDT MON APR 20 2015 MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES THIS MORNING WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S BY MID AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE ACROSS THE HEART OF THE LOCAL AREA LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. COULD SEE SOME NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES TO START THE DAY ON TUESDAY. TUE-THU NW FLOW WITH GRADUALLY RISING HEIGHTS AND A RIDGE MOVING THRU THU NIGHT. SPREAD THEN INCREASES SAT-SUN IN WHAT THE MODELS DO WITH THE DEPARTING TROF. ADDITIONAL UNCERTAINTY ALSO DEVELOPS WITH THE NEXT TROF MOVING IN OFF THE PAC. THIS HIGH SHIFTS E OF THE REGION THU. THIS DOES MAKE SENSE IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING TROF. GUSTING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30KT RANGE DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.
SHORT TERM MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH REGARDS TO THE LONG WAVE PATTERN WITH A STRONG UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND A RIDGE SLIDING FROM THE WEST COAST TO THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGIONS OF THE NORTHWEST. THIS PLACES US UNDER A CYCLONIC NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT REFLECTIVE OF THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER LOW WELL TO OUR EAST. SO WE WILL STICK WITH THE LOW POPS FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY. LOOK FOR A MODEST WARMING TREND FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE RIDGE TO THE WEST SLIDES SLOWLY EAST. HELD BACK A BIT BY THAT STRONG CUT OFF UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES.
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE JOINED BY LIGHT WINDS. WARM UPPER LEVEL HIGH WITH SUBSIDENCE ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER UNTIL EARLY AFTERNOON TUESDAY. SO KEPT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND INTO NORTH FLORIDA. IMPULSES IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW CROSS OVER FLORIDA AND COOLER 500MB TEMPERATURES OF -10C TO -12C WORK THEIR WAY OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO BEGIN CLEARING CENTRAL FLORIDA LATE OVERNIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST POISED TO BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT. LOWS TUESDAY MORNING IN THE LOW AND MID 60S ARE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN WHAT THEY HAVE BEEN THE PAST FEW MORNINGS. MAX TEMPS SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN CLIMO FOR INLAND LOCATIONS.
TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE WELL EAST OF THE REGION THIS MORNING. WITH A WEAKENING COLD FRONT OVER NORTHERN MN AND ND. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS LARGE TROF OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND MS RIVER VALLEY. WITH REMNANTS OF UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN IL. WITH SOME VALLEY AREAS EVEN COOLER.
A MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION LATER TODAY WITH A SLUG OF MOISTURE SHIFTING EWD FAIRLY QUICKLY EWD DURING THE DAY. RESIDUAL MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER OVER SE QUADRANT OF THE TROUGH WILL HELP LIMIT DESTABILIZATION BUT WE STILL ANTICIPATE HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S GIVEN WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS ADVECTING IN ON TUESDAY.
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN NEVADA TUESDAY AND LAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK, BRINGING INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OUT INTO WESTERN NEVADA AS WELL AS COOLER TEMPERATURES AREA WIDE.
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE AND HAVE LIMITED SHOWER MENTION TO ISOLATED FROM THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR EASTWARD AND DISSIPATING FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE EVENING. AN UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN JUST EAST OF NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THIS WEEK. MOST OF THE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SHOULD REMAIN EAST OF US. QUIET AND COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH RIDGING TO THE WEST AND NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT.
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TODAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY.
537 AM CDT MON APR 20 2015 NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL DOMINATE TODAY AS SURFACE RIDGING SLIDES TOWARD EASTERN TEXAS. UPPER RIDGING BUILDING ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS WILL ALLOW FOR WARMING TEMPERATURES AS HIGHS TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S THIS AFTERNOON. SERVING AS A FORCING MECHANISM FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF COLORADO/NEW MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON. AFOREMENTIONED SOUTHERLY FLOW LOOKS TO KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS RIGHT AROUND NORMAL IN THE 40S ON THE CAPROCK AND UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50 IN THE LOWER ROLLING PLAINS.
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE I-55 CORRIDOR WILL SWEEP EASTWARD THIS MORNING AND EXIT INTO INDIANA BY MIDDAY. A DEEP UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL BE THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE EARLY IN THE PERIOD, KEEPING THE MIDWEST LOCKED IN A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN. THANKS TO A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT, STRONG WESTERLY WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP ON TUESDAY.
THE WIND DROP OFF SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO COOL TO A LITTLE BELOW FREEZING EXCEPT FAR NORTHEAST WHERE THE WIND WILL HOLD UP BETTER. COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL IN THE MEDIUM RANGE AS THE SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERING THE CANADIAN AND NORTHERN US GREAT PLAINS GRADUALLY SHIFTS EASTWARD.
129 AM EDT MON APR 20 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA MONDAY.
348 AM MDT MON APR 20 2015 High pressure will continue to shift into the region today and Tuesday, which will carry max temperatures well above normal for this time of year. Some showers, with potentially an isolated lightning strike, may develop Tuesday afternoon as increasing moisture enters the area ahead of the next system, but these will be sparse and limited to the high terrain.
435 AM EDT MON APR 20 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY TODAY. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT.
UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES CAN THEN BE EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PERSISTS OVER THE NORTHEAST. TEMPERATURES WERE ALSO MODIFIED FOR THIS AFTERNOON BASED ON LATEST TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT WHICH WILL BE PASSING OVER THE AREA TODAY. INCREASING TEMPERATURES UP ALONG THE RIDGES WHERE STRONG WAA WILL BE IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. INCREASING MORE AS YOU HEAD EAST WHERE TIMING OF TODAYS COLD FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR MORE SOLAR INSOLATION. WITH THE FRONT EAST OF THE RIDGES BY EARLY THIS EVENING. PRECIPITATION WILL LARGELY BE OVER BEFORE A LARGE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SETTLES IN ACROSS THE REGION A WEAK IMPULSE MAINLY AFFECTS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES WITH A FEW SHRA TUESDAY NIGHT.
513 AM EDT MON APR 20 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TODAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AND CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL KEEP UNSETTLED CONDITIONS THROUGH MIDWEEK. TODAY WILL BEGIN MOSTLY CLEAR AND CHILLY ACROSS THE AREA WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION. THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST TODAY AND CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AS LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES PULLS AN OCCLUDED FRONT TOWARD THE AREA. A SECONDARY WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM ALONG THE OCCLUSIONS TRIPLE POINT OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT.
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WAS SLOWLY MIGRATING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST THIS MORNING. A FEW SPRINKLES OR VIRGA WAS OCCURRING ACROSS FAR SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS IN ASSOCIATION WITH MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND FRONTOGENESIS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD REACH INTO THE LOWER 60S IN MOST PLACES, WITH A FEW UPPER 50S IF ANY LOCATIONS KEEP CLOUDS MUCH OF THE DAY.
A WEAK TROUGH TONIGHT SHOULD BRING AT FIRST ONLY SOME CIRRIFORM CLOUDINESS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS. THE TROUGH LINGERS INTO TUE AND ENTRAINS SOME MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH TO GENERATE A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE AFTERNOON AND TUE EVENING. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AT THE COAST STARTS TO MOVE TUE NIGHT WITH THE AXIS PASSING TO THE EAST BY TUE NIGHT. BY THEN THE COASTAL TROUGH HAS MOVED INLAND AND HAS REACHED THE WESTERN BORDER OF THE GEM STATE.
Farther e on Tue PM in area between the surface thermal ridge across the w-nw PB and the surface mstr axis ABI-JCT will be favored for tstms. Mid level flow backs Thur ahead of upper low and a minor shrtwv trof will eject out across the area. It should be noted that ECMWF is slower with upper low.
Another area of rain has formed across IN just ahead of the cold front. Winds today will be gusty outside of any thunderstorm in the wake of the cold front. Highs will range from the lower to mid 60s. High pressure ridging in from the south will bring drier weather tonight and clearing skies. Temperatures will fall into the lower to mid 40s. For Tuesday the morning hours will be dry under the influence of the high pressure.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TODAY. THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT INLAND TONIGHT AS AN UPPER TROUGH NEARS. THIS WILL BEGIN A SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN FOR TUESDAY AS LOW CLOUDS PUSH ONSHORE AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL LINGER THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
RAIN WAS ONGOING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTED NORTH ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN. MEANWHILE AN UPPER TROUGH WAS DIGGING INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. IT WILL BE COOLER TODAY WITH HIGHS ONLY MAKING IT INTO MID TO UPPER 40S ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE TROUGH CLOSES INTO AN UPPER LOW ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND A LOBE OF VORTICITY ROTATES AROUND THE LOW AND ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA GENERATING ADDITIONAL RAIN SHOWERS WITH THE POTENTIAL TO SEE SOME SNOW MIX IN AT TIMES. ANOTHER COOL AND WINDY DAY IS IN STORE FOR THE REGION ON TUESDAY AS AN ADDITIONAL PIECE OF ENERGY ROTATES AROUND THE LOW.
305 AM EDT MON APR 20 2015 UNSETTLED AND WET WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TUESDAY.