Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
545 PM CDT Sun Sep 13 2020 Updated aviation section for 00z taf issuance A few showers and a possible late afternoon thunderstorm or two along the Tennessee-adjacent counties of Kentucky are all that remain from a cold front that has worked its way through the forecast area today. High pressure in NW Missouri will move towards the Great Lakes, resulting in the light northerly winds today, shifting towards northeasterly for tomorrow.
If you are headed outside, expect highs in the lower 80's (both today and Tuesday) and consistent southerly winds.
1127 PM MDT Sun Sep 13 2020 Overview: An upper level ridge. Height rises /synoptic subsidence/ associated with the aforementioned upper ridge will foster dry conditions, clear skies, and above normal temperatures -- with daytime highs in the mid-to-upper 80s and overnight lows ranging from the upper 40s to mid 50s.
205 AM CDT Mon Sep 14 2020 Quiet weather will be the main headline to begin the week with high pressure over the region.
Forecast soundings suggest upwards of 15 knots available to mix in the lowest 5000 feet AGL. That said, confidence is not high enough for any fire weather products, but it will certainly be dry with RHs in the low teens & even some single digits.
1126 PM MDT Sun Sep 13 2020 An upper level ridge will be over the area tonight and Monday. Lows tonight should mostly be in the upper 40s to around 50 over the plains, with 30s to lower 40s in the high valleys. Highs on Mon should be in the 80s over the plains with mostly 70s in the high valleys.
Smoke from the western fires will continue to move over the upper ridge to our west and move east southeast over our region through the day. Depending on the smoke thickness, high temperatures could end up being a few degrees cooler than in the current forecast. With these hot temperatures in the southwest cwa along with dew points mixing out into the lower to mid 40s, the grassland fire danger will become very high southwest of Pierre this afternoon. A cool frontal boundary/trough will be moving across the region during the afternoon and evening bringing winds to the northwest. For the first half of the forecast period, the dominant pattern is a western CONUS ridge and a trough over the eastern CONUS/eastern Canada.
An elongated subtropical ridge of high pressure extending from Utah across Colorado and the Central Plains will remain in place through Tonight.
Another day of light to moderate N/NE flow is expected as a weak cold front currently working its way southward should clear the area prior to 18Z, leaving comfortable daytime highs in the 80s to low 90s.
240 AM CDT Mon Sep 14 2020 High pressure will bring quiet weather and seasonable temperatures to the region for the next few days. Broad high pressure stretched from northern MN south into northern IL at 06z, bringing cooler air to central IL.
1118 PM EDT Sun Sep 13 2020 An upper trough and associated front will pass through the region tonight. Canadian high pressure will build into the region the first half of this week.
Water vapor loop shows broad ridge over much of the southwestern and south central CONUS, with the main upper jet over the top of it from the Pacific Northwest into the Northern Plains/Upper Midwest. Think there could still be some smoke, but a bit more diffuse with a longer route into our area over the upper ridge.
429 AM EDT Mon Sep 14 2020 High pressure will strengthen over the Great Lakes today then build to the East Coast on Tuesday.
1134 PM MDT Sun Sep 13 2020 A ridge of high pressure over the Intermountain West will continue to dominate the weather pattern through the short term period. Unseasonably warm afternoon temperatures can be expected on Monday as the ridge of high pressure expands eastward. High pressure will remain over the the forecast area through most of the work week bringing mainly dry conditions and unseasonably warm temperatures to the region.
CD Chattanooga Airport, TN 87 68 84 67 77 / 30 10 40 20 30 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 84 64 84 65 80 / 20 10 30 10 30 Oak Ridge, TN 84 64 85 64 81 / 20 10 30 10 30 Tri Cities Airport, TN 82 59 82 59 80 / 20 0 10 10 20.
322 AM CDT Mon Sep 14 2020 (Issued 322 AM CDT Mon Sep 14 2020) Today through Tuesday: There is a backdoor cold front that is starting to move southward through southern Wisconsin this morning. High pressure is beginning to move into the region this morning which will keep skies clear and temperatures warm. The high temperatures are expected to climb into the low to mid 70s, with the overnight lows expected to fall into the mid to upper 50s. This high pressure will quickly move Northeast tonight as a quick moving low pressure system advances along the US/Canada border.
Lows tonight look to remain in the lower 50s. For Monday, weak high pressure will shift off to the east with very weak lee troughing resuming. Highs tomorrow are expected to range from the upper 70s across the eastern zones to the lower 80s across the western zones. For Tuesday, the weak lee troughing pattern will continue.
High pressure centered over the eastern Great Basin is drawing up smoke from CA on a southwest flow. Gusty southwest winds are expected each afternoon and evening in the higher elevations with light winds persisting in the lower valleys.
159 AM EDT Mon Sep 14 2020 High pressure will build into the region tonight and will bring dry conditions through Tuesday.
A broad upper ridge maintains control of much of the CONUS with the 591dm contour cutting right through Nebraska. A weak warm front or boundary extends southeast to around the SoDak/Neb border. Tonight, the low level jet is projected to be slightly stronger with speeds approaching 45 kts in the far west. Given continued dry air and abundant sunshine, other than possible haze, this should translate to highs in the lower 90s.
Tomorrow will continue to be more of same thanks to upper level high pressure present over much of the central and western CONUS.
Tonight Through Tuesday Early afternoon water vapor satellite imagery showed an elongated, weak upper level trough extending from the Great Lakes region southwest across central Missouri leading into northern New Mexico. Sally is expected to interact with the stationary trough and boundary, both of which should steer Sally well off to the east of Arkansas for the middle of this week.
There is a slight chance for afternoon thunderstorms Monday over the high terrain.
Though clouds are not expected, we have coordinated with surrounding NWS offices to include 15-30% sky cover for the high level smoke, which at times, may be opaque enough to appear overcast. Tonight, under clear, but smoky skies, lows in the lower to mid 50s are again expected. 2) Cooler towards the weekend and remaining dry.
This low level moisture may help to bring some fog to the eastern half of the Panhandles, with the better chance of lower visibility across the eastern third. Some high clouds will move across the southeast half of the Texas Panhandle mainly this morning in association with a weak upper level low that will pass to our south.
141 AM EDT Mon Sep 14 2020 Aviation - Diminishing clouds this evening - Dry weather for most of the period - Cool down for the end of the week - Diminishing clouds this evening A ridge of high pressure in WI is forecast to build into MI this evening.
Over the next few days, Sally will ease around an upper ridge centered near the east coast.
1006 PM MDT Sun Sep 13 2020 High pressure will become centered across the eastern Great Basin through midweek.
1156 PM CDT Sun Sep 13 2020 Updated aviation section for 06z taf issuance A few showers and a possible late afternoon thunderstorm or two along the Tennessee-adjacent counties of Kentucky are all that remain from a cold front that has worked its way through the forecast area today. High pressure in NW Missouri will move towards the Great Lakes, resulting in the light northerly winds today, shifting towards northeasterly for tomorrow. High temperatures the next couple days will be similar to today, mainly in the lower 80s. The main change following the cold front will be a significant decrease in moisture. This will allow low temperatures to drop towards the lower 60s tonight and near 60 Monday night.
With a broad upper trough aloft, look for mostly mid and high clouds today along with haze and smoke from the California Wildfires.
155 AM MDT Mon Sep 14 2020 Overview: An upper level ridge. Height rises /synoptic subsidence/ associated with the aforementioned upper ridge will foster dry conditions, clear skies, and above normal temperatures -- with daytime highs in the mid-to-upper 80s and overnight lows ranging from the upper 40s to mid 50s. The upper level ridge is expected to remain over the western and central CONUS.
As the weekend arrives, the upper-level pattern looks to become more amplified as a trough axis begins to dig southward. An attendant surface frontal boundary should accompany the trough axis, and it will attempt to make southward progress into Florida. Regardless, showers and thunderstorms remain in the forecast each day, with the highest chances in the afternoon hours.
311 AM CDT Mon Sep 14 2020 North to northeasterly flow aloft will persist Monday into early Tuesday as the mid-level ridge stays locked in over the western CONUS.
333 AM CDT Mon Sep 14 2020 Current satellite imagery reveals quiet conditions across the region with latest observations showing temperatures hovering in the low to mid 50s. Forecast soundings are also fairly mixy which should allow for warmer temperatures and drier dewpoints to prevail. Otherwise, expect to see afternoon highs climb into the low to mid 80s east of I-29 and upper 80s to low 90s west of I-29 with the aid of enhanced WAA and radiational heating.
High pressure will bring dry weather and slightly below temperatures to the area through Tuesday night.
412 AM EDT Mon Sep 14 2020 Canadian high pressure will build into the region the first half of this week.
242 AM MDT Mon Sep 14 2020 Water vapor shows upper ridge building into the Northern Plains with a ridge topping wave moving eastward along the Canadian border. Dry cold front works through late tonight and early Tuesday shifting winds to the north, although highs on Tuesday may only be a few degrees cooler. Flow aloft becomes northwesterly mid/late week as trof deepens over the Great Lakes and ridge amplifies over the Intermountain West.
212 AM EDT Mon Sep 14 2020 An upper trough and associated front will pass through the region tonight. Canadian high pressure will build into the region the first half of this week.
1242 AM CDT Mon Sep 14 2020 (Tonight and Monday) Combination of a weak cold front moving through the area and a weak upper level disturbance is helping create scattered to numerous convection across portions of the area. A little cooler behind the front, with lows in the low to mid 60s and highs in the upper 70s and lower 80s. Areas around Junction and Mason, that saw less rain last week and have drier soil conditions, may be a couple degrees warmer.
1148 PM EDT Sun Sep 13 2020 Northwest flow will become northeast by Monday as high pressure builds into the area. This high will also provide VFR conditions with just thin cirrus at times. A secondary cold front will backdoor into Southeast Michigan between 06-12Z tonight which will finally allow surface dewpoints to drop into the 40s. A large area of confluence aloft will result in Canadian high pressure settling into Southeast Michigan and the Central Great Lakes Monday and Tuesday. Tuesday lows will be something to watch and temperatures should drop into the low to mid 40s areawide.
A weak upper low currently over the southern Rockies has become cut off from the prevailing flow and will meander slowly eastward through the week.
337 AM CDT Mon Sep 14 2020 High pressure shifting east through Midwest into the Mid-Atlantic will keep the forecast area dry through short term forecast period.
On Monday, a warmer day is on tap as southerly winds usher in warmer air. A modest cold front drops through on Monday night into early Tuesday.
524 AM MDT Mon Sep 14 2020 High pressure will remain overhead early this week. High pressure will remain over the the forecast area through most of the work week bringing mainly dry conditions and unseasonably warm temperatures to the region.
Surface ridging drifting overhead coupled with calm surface winds, a deep light wind layer just off the surface, largely clear skies, and plenty of residual surface layer moisture from all the recent rain has provided a very favorable setup. Elsewhere, the experimental HRRR shows plenty of western wildfire smoke lingering overhead, so between clouds and smoke there unfortunately won't be much blue sky to enjoy along with the warmer, dry weather.
414 AM MDT Mon Sep 14 2020 The high pressure center continues to be positioned over south- central Wyoming today and will continue to bring very dry and unseasonably warm weather to the region. Temperatures today will be warmer than yesterday with 90 degrees possible across northeastern Johnson County and the Bighorn Basin. Tuesday will see the southwest flow become more zonal as a system to the north over Canada begins to push south into Montana and helps to flatten the ridge.
The warmest days will be during the latter part of the week with high temperatures topping out between 106-109 degrees across the bulk of the lower deserts. A large upper level ridge has settled in across the middle part of the country, extending westward through the Desert Southwest.
523 AM MDT Mon Sep 14 2020 Overnight WV/IR satellite imagery showed a broad mid/upper level ridge centered over the Rocky Mountains with rather dry air aloft. The warm and dry weather pattern will persist through the short term under the influence of the mid/upper level ridge. 700mb temperatures of 10 to 14C will yield afternoon maxima in the 80s to lower 90s, with 60s and 70s for the higher terrain. A deepening mid/upper level trough over southern Canada will push the ridge to the west over the Intermountain West.
The ridge of high pressure is still expected to flatten today causing an increase in upper level winds. The ridge of high pressure rebounds back over the Northern Rockies through much of the week. This ridge will keep the smoke from California/Oregon/Washington and even Idaho lingering across the region. The models continue to indicate a low pressure system moving through the Northern Rockies by the weekend. This low will cause cooler temperatures and widespread precipitation. Uncertainty lies on exactly how this low will track across the region and where the heaviest precipitation will fall.
Looking at water vapor imagery and 500mb height contours early this morning, an expansive upper ridge is evident from the Four Corners region, northward into Montana. There is one upper level trough located off the Pacific Coast and another approaching the Northeast. Upper level troughing becomes better established over the Midwest by midweek, but with little change expected in our sensible weather here is Kansas.
WV imagery indicates weak ridging aloft stretching across the Intermountain West into the Western High Plains. Near the surface, a weak lee side trough of low pressure is developing in eastern Colorado. An elongated subtropical ridge of high pressure extending from Utah across Colorado and the Central Plains will remain in place through Tonight.
504 AM EDT Mon Sep 14 2020 WV imagery and RAP analysis indicated wnw mid/upper level flow through the northern Plains and Upper Great Lakes atop a ridge over the central Rockies and central Plains. At the surface, high pressure extended from northwest ontario through the western Great Lakes leaving mostly clear skies and light winds over Upper Michigan. Favorable radiational cooling has allowed temps to drop into the low to mid 30s over the interior west. Tonight, as low pressure develops over the Dakotas and a 50-60 knot wsw low level jet strengthens, theta-e advection and isentropic lift around 300k along the 850 mb front will bring some showers into the region.
There is a slight chance for afternoon thunderstorms today over the high terrain with the smoke layer moving back over western Arizona.
High pressure dominates with a southerly to southeasterly flow continuing to push the smoke and haze out of the area. Otherwise, high pressure over the desert southwest with increasing heights and thicknesses that will support temperatures 3 to 6 degrees above seasonal normals. Another trough will likely dig far enough south by the weekend to keep any juicy easterly wave activity from Texas from tracking this far north.
High pressure aloft will remain centered across the interior west through midweek. This high pressure will maintain above normal temperatures and dry conditions for the next several days. An upper level trough moving east through the region will bring cooler temperatures to the area by this weekend.
947 AM CDT Mon Sep 14 2020 (Issued 947 AM CDT Mon Sep 14 2020) High pressure centered near Lake Superior will continue to dominate. Collar (Issued 322 AM CDT Mon Sep 14 2020) Today through Tuesday: There is a backdoor cold front that is starting to move southward through southern Wisconsin this morning. High pressure is beginning to move into the region this morning which will keep skies clear and temperatures warm. The high temperatures are expected to climb into the low to mid 70s, with the overnight lows expected to fall into the mid to upper 50s. This high pressure will quickly move Northeast tonight as a quick moving low pressure system advances along the US/Canada border.
Southwest LA and SE Texas are currently in between an inverted trough over the SW Gulf and Tropical Storm Sally about 120 miles southeast of the mouth of the Mississippi. A heat advisory has been issued for Calcasieu and Cameron Parish as a result of the high heat index values.
604 AM CDT Mon Sep 14 2020 North to northeasterly flow aloft will persist Monday into early Tuesday as the mid-level ridge stays locked in over the western CONUS.
502 AM EDT Mon Sep 14 2020 Deep southerly, confluent flow from the surface to over 20K feet continues as Tropical Storm Sally moves west-northwest over the northern Gulf of Mexico, and a narrow ridge extends southast off the southeast U. The KBYX 88D indicated scattered showers and a few thunderstorms moving quickly northward along an axis that has slid eastward over portions of the Lower Keys. While there is evidence of the ridge attempting to build westward with more shallow showers moving northwest through the eastern Straits, there remains decent moisture at 700 mb along the leading edge of more pronounced mid-level easterlies, thus additional time will be needed before drier air can work in.
415 AM MDT Mon Sep 14 2020 Aviation Section Updated A brisk westerly flow aloft will reside over the region today, resulting in areas of smoke, warmer temperatures, along with breezy conditions at times.
554 AM EDT Mon Sep 14 2020 Canadian high pressure will build into the region the first half of this week.
653 AM EDT Mon Sep 14 2020 High pressure will strengthen over the Great Lakes today then build to the East Coast on Tuesday.
Quiet weather will be the main headline to begin the week with high pressure over the region.
SHORT TERM (Today through Tuesday): Shower and thunderstorm activity has persisted through the night, mostly over the waters, under the influence of a trough over the western Gulf of Mexico.
High temperatures should generally be near seasonal averages in the lower to mid 90s. This could lead to some additional coastal flooding concerns with the high tide after midnight tonight.
high pressure will continue to sit across Utah and Colorado through the next 24 hours. Mozley Upper ridge of high pressure containing meager moisture will remain over the area through the work week.
744 AM EDT Mon Sep 14 2020 WV imagery and RAP analysis indicated wnw mid/upper level flow through the northern Plains and Upper Great Lakes atop a ridge over the central Rockies and central Plains. At the surface, high pressure extended from northwest ontario through the western Great Lakes leaving mostly clear skies and light winds over Upper Michigan. Favorable radiational cooling has allowed temps to drop into the low to mid 30s over the interior west. Tonight, as low pressure develops over the Dakotas and a 50-60 knot wsw low level jet strengthens, theta-e advection and isentropic lift around 300k along the 850 mb front will bring some showers into the region.
357 AM MDT Mon Sep 14 2020 High pressure will remain overhead early this week. High pressure will remain over the the forecast area through most of the work week bringing mainly dry conditions and unseasonably warm temperatures to the region.
523 AM MDT Mon Sep 14 2020 Water vapor shows upper ridge building into the Northern Plains with a ridge topping wave moving eastward along the Canadian border. Dry cold front works through late tonight and early Tuesday shifting winds to the north, although highs on Tuesday may only be a few degrees cooler. Flow aloft becomes northwesterly mid/late week as trof deepens over the Great Lakes and ridge amplifies over the Intermountain West.
950 AM EDT Mon Sep 14 2020 High pressure will strengthen over the Great Lakes today then build to the East Coast on Tuesday.
306 AM MDT Mon Sep 14 2020 Overnight WV/IR satellite imagery showed a broad mid/upper level ridge centered over the Rocky Mountains with rather dry air aloft. The warm and dry weather pattern will persist through the short term under the influence of the mid/upper level ridge. 700mb temperatures of 10 to 14C will yield afternoon maxima in the 80s to lower 90s, with 60s and 70s for the higher terrain. A deepening mid/upper level trough over southern Canada will push the ridge to the west over the Intermountain West.
High pressure shifting east through Midwest into the Mid-Atlantic will keep the forecast area dry through short term forecast period.
A broad ridge is sitting over the Intermountain West, extending into the Plains and portions of the Lower MS Valley. A weak cold front is moving across the Mid-South early this morning, but it's really only noted in the dewpoint field as drier air advects into the region. The latest guidance indicates the amplifying midweek trough over the Great Lakes will exert a bit more influence on the track of Sally, steering the cyclone just south and east of the CWA. This track will also limit the potential for tornadoes as they tend to also occur in the front right quadrant of the cyclone.
405 AM MDT Mon Sep 14 2020 A brisk westerly flow aloft will reside over the region today, resulting in areas of smoke, warmer temperatures, along with breezy conditions at times.
715 AM EDT Mon Sep 14 2020 Canadian high pressure will build into the region the first half of this week.
The combination of a clear sky, light wind and cold air advection will lead to some of the lowest temperature readings since May. Though widespread frost is unlikely, localized patchy frost may develop by early Tuesday morning for locations in northeast PA and in valley locations within the eastern ridges, especially Canaan Valley.
521 AM CDT Mon Sep 14 2020 High pressure will bring quiet weather and seasonable temperatures to the region for the next few days. Broad high pressure stretched from northern MN south into northern IL at 06z, bringing cooler air to central IL.
An upper low will slowly move onshore later in the week.
637 AM CDT Mon Sep 14 2020 Current satellite imagery reveals quiet conditions across the region with latest observations showing temperatures hovering in the low to mid 50s. Forecast soundings are also fairly mixy which should allow for warmer temperatures and drier dewpoints to prevail. Otherwise, expect to see afternoon highs climb into the low to mid 80s east of I-29 and upper 80s to low 90s west of I-29 with the aid of enhanced WAA and radiational heating.
CD Chattanooga Airport, TN 87 68 84 68 78 / 30 10 30 20 40 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 83 64 85 65 82 / 20 10 20 10 30 Oak Ridge, TN 84 64 86 65 83 / 10 10 20 10 30 Tri Cities Airport, TN 81 59 82 58 81 / 10 10 0 0 10.