Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
This activity is associated with weak upper divergence near the right entrance of a 45-50 kt upper jet streak cresting the downstream side of the building mid/upper ridge. However, since we will stay on the NE periphery of the building ridge through the afternoon with some continued upper divergence, enough instability should result in a few thunderstorms, especially across the higher terrain of the E TN mountains and across NE TN and SW VA. Garuckas Chattanooga Airport, TN 63 84 63 85 60 / 0 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 60 83 59 85 58 / 0 10 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 59 83 58 85 58 / 0 10 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 57 81 55 83 54 / 10 10 0 10 0.
Once these mainly diurnally driven showers dissipate weak ridging aloft will likely lead towards quiet weather until the wave approaches from the south Wednesday morning. Upper level ridging builds in behind the Wednesday wave and should see a drying trend as we go into Wednesday night.
1245 PM EDT Tue May 18 2021 High pressure will prevail across the area through the week with warm temperatures and minimal rain chances. Current forecast temperatures on track with mid 70s beaches to lower 80s inland, except cooler 60s on the northern Outer Banks. Radiational cooling will produce lows in the low to mid 50s inland.
Data from the Key West morning radiosonde balloon confirm a change in the atmosphere during the last 24 hours over Key West, with modest geopotential height falls through most of the lower and middle troposphere, as well as some lower- tropospheric warming and moistening. Current surface observations across the Keys indicate air temperatures in the lower 80s, with dewpoint temperatures in the mid to upper 60s.
1240 PM CDT Tue May 18 2021 A warm front will lift northward across central IL today, and bring another cloudy and damp day, with periods of showers and a possible thunderstorm. Lows tonight in the lower 60s, with highs Wednesday in the upper 70s to around 80 degrees.
(This evening through Wednesday) In the abnormally moist airmass that will around beyond Wednesday, rain and thunderstorms will occur with the aid of residual mesoscale boundaries and weak flow aloft around the closed low over northeastern NM. This low will move little through Wednesday allowing for several weak impulses to affect much of Oklahoma with the main area for heavy rainfall continuing to be southeastern Oklahoma.
1033 AM CDT Tue May 18 2021 A warm front will lift northward across central IL today, and bring another cloudy and damp day, with periods of showers and a possible thunderstorm. Lows tonight in the lower 60s, with highs Wednesday in the upper 70s to around 80 degrees.
high pressure will generally remain in control through the weekend. resulting in a warmer day (Sat). While that typically results in a transition from cooler to warmer wx at this time of year. its not phase 6 (which favors the highest prob for widespread/significantly warmer for most of the ern CONUS). Usually cautious about forecasting lengthy/long periods of very warm wx w/ highly amplified ridges aloft W of the region and trough into New England. A more traditional backdoor cold front very poss late in the weekend into Mon (timing/pcpn coverage w/ that front questionable at this time frame). Early morning surface analysis shows ~1025mb high pressure centered over the eastern CONUS. General ridging aloft is noted for the eastern half of the country with closed low at 500mb near the 4 corners region of the SW.
Early morning water vapor imagery shows moisture streaming north downstream of a mid/upper low over the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandle. Temperatures look to be cooler for southern areas given the earlier arrival of low clouds. Wednesday will be an even trickier forecast in terms of the high temperature forecast, being highly dependent on the stratus deck progged to plague some of the area. As the remnants of the low/trough mentioned in the short term discussion stream northward through the remainder of the week, occasional rounds of showers and thunderstorms are likely.
Issued by National Weather Service Cleveland OH 248 PM EDT Tue May 18 2021 Warm front passes tonight, followed by an upper ridge building through the end of the week and into the weekend.
On Wednesday, with the main upper trough axis still just west of our area, we could see another round of scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms developing off of a diffuse dryline near the western border of our CWA.
Issued by National Weather Service Cleveland OH 249 PM EDT Tue May 18 2021 Warm front passes tonight, followed by an upper ridge building through the end of the week and into the weekend.
On Tuesday, ridging to the east will begin strengthening and thus building further west into the forecast area.
The upper level low we've been watching for the past few days will move into West Texas tonight and then northeastward to the central Plains. The low levels remain warm and very moist. The highest totals will be east of I-35/I-37.
Discussion: Light showers associated with WAA/weak isentropic ascent and lift near the right entrance of a 40-50 kt upper jet streak on the NE side of the building ridge across the Carolinas continue this afternoon. The mid/upper ridge will continue to build across the eastern CONUS through the period as deep mid/upper troughing digs into the Pacific NW, with anomalous H5 height values nearing 590 DAM across the Carolinas and Mid Atlantic by late Wed. The sharpening mid/upper ridge axis poking into the Great Lakes will also shunt the greatest moisture plume westward toward the MS Valley. HREF guidance hints at this possibility as well with a few cells depicted forming over western NC/Blue Ridge and drifting west/northwestward.
Wrap around moisture and frontogenesis on the NW side of the low is supporting a band of showers over portions the central and southern mountains. A subtle wave may also track over the area in the evening, and possibly support additional convection that develops over the higher terrain in eastern Utah before moving eastward. Most of the lower valleys in this region will stay dry, but have the potential for virga showers and strong wind gusts. Temperatures will climb above normal tomorrow as a weak ridge builds over the forecast area.
258 PM CDT Tue May 18 2021 The unsettled weather pattern continues as a large mid level low and accompanying trough remains to our southwest with subtle disturbances translating through the region. The closed mid level low fills and becomes an open trough as it gets closer to the region.
Temps will stay on the mild side tonight with the higher dewpoints in the area. Stayed away from the warmer models given the cloud potential.
A dry cold front will usher in some cooler air to the region today. Meanwhile, a cut-off upper level low pressure system is starting to dig south over California and Nevada.
322 PM EDT Tue May 18 2021 High pressure will bring mostly sunny skies and warm temperatures to the region through the week. High pressure starts to break down by the weekend with a threat for showers and thunderstorms. Ridging will be centered over the region through the period. Went slightly above persistence for forecast lows overnight tonight, as heights have increased some, so thinking it should be a few degrees warmer than last night. With plenty of sunshine tomorrow, highs should easily climb into the 80s for most areas, with a few of the warmer spots topping out in the upper 80s. High pressure will be to our south and southeast throughout this period. As a result, south to southwest winds will continue to transport warmer and gradually moister air into the region.
12 hour height falls at 12Z were highest to the southeast of the low over parts of west TX. That low will gradually fill and lift out across the central US as a trough digs over the western states the next 48 hours. Highs on Wednesday should be a bit warmer than today, reaching 72 to 77 at most spots.
Persistent upper ridging will be the main player across the Southeast through the week ahead. Given the strength of the 500 mb ridge expanding across the region (around 590-593dm), temperatures are expected to warm well above normal by the weekend with summer making a rapid return.
Thus, high temperatures will easily reach the lower to middle 80s in valley areas and upper 70s to around 80 atop the higher plateaus.
1226 PM EDT Tue May 18 2021 A non-progressive pattern will feature high pressure gradually building in from the north over the next several days. Weak strands of vorticity aloft atop the upper ridge will face unwelcoming circumstances, as the ridge amplifies over the region, bringing about descent of a dry capping layer of air later today. Maximum temperatures today not all that different from yesterday, but Wednesday should be several degrees warmer as the upper ridge works the column and thicknesses are boosted.
High pressure over the Carolinas will build westward causing any of the precipitation associated with the low pressure mess over Eastern Texas to move north of the area.
Breezy onshore winds will keep min temps very mild along the coast, holding in the low to mid 70s. Max temps similar to today in the low to mid 80s.
Large and strong high pressure to the north will continue the current pattern. Isolated showers will still be possible tonight and Wednesday as areas of low level moisture convergence move around the high center. Lows tonight will range from the lower 60s inland to near 70 at the coast. Highs will reach the low to mid 80s.
Still dry in the lower part of the atmosphere with a CAPE of 40 J/KG and LI of +4. High pressure building out east will gradually push this moisture westward, so look for the atmosphere to dry out considerably by this time tomorrow.
An upper level low over north central New Mexico will slowly drift southeast to east central New Mexico by Wednesday morning and then it will lift northeastward across the northwest part of our CWA on Wednesday night. The Panhandles will remain in the diffluent flow ahead of this upper level low and several minor disturbances will move through this flow to help set off periods of showers and thunderstorms through Wednesday night.
High pressure remains over the area with the upper level ridge beginning to build. Afternoon high temperatures will be in the low 80s with overnight lows in the upper 50s to around 60.
250 PM EDT Tue May 18 2021 High pressure will continue to build over the next several days as a slow warmup continues.
Synoptically, a ridge is building across the southeast US which will set the stage for an upper high to park over the southeast for over a week. The upper high closes off Wednesday night then meanders around the southeast through the period all the while increasing subsidence and dry air in the low to mid levels squash any rain chances.
After tonight, height rises commence with high pressure strengthening over the east 1/3 of the nation. This will push best PoPs farther to our west and allow for warmer temperatures and increasingly dry conditions.
208 PM PDT Tue May 18 2021 Dry weather with warmer temperatures today. Next weather system approaches Wednesday bringing cooler temperatures.
The CWA also sees a chance for isolated light rain showers and non- severe thunderstorms through the evening hours with the placement of this low along with a midlevel disturbance seen. Currently, models show the lowest visibilities along and east of a line from Norton to Colby to Leoti. long range guidance suggests that the High Plains will be situated invof a 'synoptic inflection point', i. downstream of an amplifying trough over the western CONUS and upstream of an amplifying ridge over the eastern CONUS -- a prototypical multi-day severe weather pattern -- characterized by (1) a persistent feed of rich low- level moisture from the Gulf of Mexico and (2) persistent cyclonic flow aloft over the Intermountain West/Rockies.
635 PM CDT Tue May 18 2021 The unsettled weather pattern continues as a large mid level low and accompanying trough remains to our southwest with subtle disturbances translating through the region. The closed mid level low fills and becomes an open trough as it gets closer to the region.
557 PM EDT Tue May 18 2021 An upper level ridge will build over the East Coast, resulting in much warmer temperatures through the upcoming weekend. Widespread high clouds spilling over the ridge will remain in place through the evening but should begin to dissipate overnight as the upper ridge strengthens.
The 00Z KEY RAOB shows an increase in moisture in the lower and mid-levels from this morning with a PWAT of 1.
Progressively cooler weather is expected through the middle of this week with brisk northwesterly winds each afternoon and locally frosty nights for some interior valleys.
633 PM EDT Tue May 18 2021 High pressure will bring mostly sunny skies and warm temperatures to the region through the week. High pressure starts to break down by the weekend with a threat for showers and thunderstorms. Ridging will be centered over the region through the period. Went slightly above persistence for forecast lows overnight tonight, as heights have increased some, so thinking it should be a few degrees warmer than last night. With plenty of sunshine tomorrow, highs should easily climb into the 80s for most areas, with a few of the warmer spots topping out in the upper 80s. High pressure will be to our south and southeast throughout this period. As a result, south to southwest winds will continue to transport warmer and gradually moister air into the region.
516 PM MDT Tue May 18 2021 Water vapor shows nearly cut-off low over the southern Rockies with upper trof carving through the Pac NW. Weak flow aloft across the Northern Plains with upper ridge just off to our northeast. At the surface, robust return flow continues with lee trof advancing off the front range, with a notable dry line over northeast WY early this afternoon. Upper low over the southern Rockies weakens and ejects northeast as upper trof digs in the west on Wednesday. A brief period of gusty northwest winds possible in the morning as weak surface trof moves through.
/issued 734 PM EDT Tue May 18 2021/ Aloft - a ridge from Cuba to the Great Lakes this evening eases eastward Wed as a robust low near the Four Corners region slides over the central and southern high plains and weakens. Surface - High pressure in the western Atlantic ridges across the southeast US to the Gulf of Mexico through Wed. Temperatures drop off to the lower to mid 60s inland with mid to upper 60s along the coast by daybreak. High pressure resides across the waters for the next few days with a gradient tight enough for robust winds at times.
522 PM MDT Tue May 18 2021 The upper level trough that has been dominate in the region is expected to get absorbed into the main flow ahead of a Pacific Northwest trough digging towards the southeast early tomorrow morning. Current model guidance has an omega blocking pattern setting up over the central CONUS with an upper level closed low developing over the Pacific Northwest.
737 PM EDT Tue May 18 2021 High pressure will bring mostly sunny skies and warm temperatures to the region through the week. High pressure starts to break down by the weekend with a threat for showers and thunderstorms. Ridging will be centered over the region through the period. Went slightly above persistence for forecast lows overnight tonight, as heights have increased some, so thinking it should be a few degrees warmer than last night. With plenty of sunshine tomorrow, highs should easily climb into the 80s for most areas, with a few of the warmer spots topping out in the upper 80s. High pressure will be to our south and southeast throughout this period. As a result, south to southwest winds will continue to transport warmer and gradually moister air into the region.
Expect MVFR conditions to develop across the Rio Grande Valley tonight into early Wed morning as low to mid level moisture continues to increase ahead of a 500mb low/trough across New Mexico and west Texas tonight.
1003 PM EDT Tue May 18 2021 A Warm front will lift from south to north across the region overnight, allowing for warm moist air to lift into the region. Isolated showers with a thunderstorm possible for Wednesday, after which high pressure builds in and a warming trend with dry conditions expected for the end of the week. Weak warm front stretching from SW Indiana through eastern Kentucky to lift north overnight, under an overall upper level ridging pattern, with some weak echoes near the frontal boundary. Expecting winds to remain slightly elevated overnight, as well as some high based clouds, so not expecting much in the way of patchy fog overnight, though certainly increases in low level moisture with overnight lows in the lower 60s in the southwest and upper 50s further east.
1039 PM EDT Tue May 18 2021 An upper level ridge will build over the East Coast, resulting in much warmer temperatures through the upcoming weekend. Widespread high clouds spilling over the ridge should begin to dissipate overnight as the upper ridge strengthens.
A few more sprinkles and possibly a light shower could be around closer to dawn with locations west of I-65 having the highest possibility of seeing something.
309 PM MDT Tue May 18 2021 A cold front extends from near Regina to Glasgow to west of Jordan as of 3 PM MDT. Temperatures will be notably cooler tomorrow with the passage of this cold front with highs in the 60s and 70s. Rain chances increase Wednesday night as a strong upper-level trough approaches and significantly colder air is ushered into the region.
653 PM EDT Tue May 18 2021 High pressure will continue to build over the next several days as a slow warmup continues.
With cloudy skies and a modest S/SE breeze overnight, temperatures will be slow to fall with overnight lows remaining mild, in the lower to mid 60s. High pressure will remain east of the area and this will act to push the heaviest precip back to the west through the period. Overnight lows will fall only a few degrees, dropping into the lower to middle 60s across the CWA. Precip will begin to wane some at beginning of the period as the high pressure will become more dominant and push most of the precip to the west.
749 PM EDT Tue May 18 2021 High pressure builds surface and aloft through the end of the week, yielding increasingly summer-like conditions. Showers associated with a weakening warm front have dissipated. A weak upper level disturbance will be shunted west of the area Wednesday by a building upper level ridge, as the warm front dissipates.
Increasing clouds will prevent temperatures from falling too much, with readings only expected to fall into the lower and middle 50s by sunrise. High pressure and dry air thru the column remain firmly in control of our wx across the entire Great Lakes region this afternoon. still expecting a gradual increase of mid and high clouds from SW to NE as a warm front and associated moisture begin to lift northward into the Western Great Lakes region.
NW Winds whipping up behind a cold front that is now between Glasgow and Wolf Point.
Cooler conditions and scattered showers will continue across the region into Wednesday as upper level low pressure moves south across the Pacific Northwest.
751 PM EDT Tue May 18 2021 A Warm front will lift from south to north across the region overnight, allowing for warm moist air to lift into the region. Isolated showers with a thunderstorm possible for Wednesday, after which high pressure builds in and a warming trend with dry conditions expected for the end of the week. Almost more of a mid summer type pattern with a stout upper ridge building over the southern Great Lakes/middle Ohio Valley/southern Appalachians. Weak warm front drifts northward through southwestern Ohio tonight, and the region will get exposed to disturbances in the SSW flow aloft going forward.
A high pressure remains off the coast of the Carolinas, keeping a tight pressure gradient over the Florida peninsula. Temps will drop to mid 60s across the interior but remain in the lower 70s along the coast.
938 PM EDT Tue May 18 2021 High pressure will continue to build over the next several days as a slow warmup continues.
846 PM EDT Tue May 18 2021 High pressure will strengthen over the Appalachians tonight into Wednesday then build west from the western Atlantic into the eastern U. High pressure builds in tonight across the area. High pressure will strengthen over the Appalachians Wednesday. High temperatures Wednesday will moderate to readings from the mid 60s in the mountains to the lower 80s in the piedmont. First Subtropical Ridge of the Summer to Drift over the The main feature during the time frame will be a strong subtropical ridge that will retrograde slowly westward through the time frame.
734 PM EDT Tue May 18 2021 Aloft - a ridge from Cuba to the Great Lakes this evening eases eastward Wed as a robust low near the Four Corners region slides over the central and southern high plains and weakens. Surface - High pressure in the western Atlantic ridges across the southeast US to the Gulf of Mexico through Wed. Temperatures drop off to the lower to mid 60s inland with mid to upper 60s along the coast by daybreak. High pressure resides across the waters for the next few days with a gradient tight enough for robust winds at times.
804 PM EDT Tue May 18 2021 An upper level ridge will build over the East Coast, resulting in much warmer temperatures through the upcoming weekend. Model guidance still shows a small possibility for showers over the mtns and near the Blue Ridge Escarpment, so that will be kept in the fcst. Widespread high clouds spilling over the ridge will remain in place through the evening but should begin to dissipate overnight as the upper ridge strengthens.
/issued 352 PM CDT Tue May 18 2021/ Wx map shows tight pressure gradient continuing between high pressure over the East Coast and low pressure over NM/W TX/OK this afternoon.
1042 PM CDT Tue May 18 2021 The unsettled weather pattern continues as a large mid level low and accompanying trough remains to our southwest with subtle disturbances translating through the region. The closed mid level low fills and becomes an open trough as it gets closer to the region.
BW Chattanooga Airport, TN 84 62 86 60 89 / 10 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 83 59 85 57 88 / 10 0 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 83 58 86 57 88 / 10 0 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 80 54 83 53 87 / 10 0 0 0 0.
331 AM EDT Wed May 19 2021 High pressure will bring summer-like temperatures and mostly sunny skies to NY and PA through the next few days.
114 AM EDT Wed May 19 2021 High pressure will continue to build over the next several days with a warming trend into the weekend.
1051 PM MDT Tue May 18 2021 Water vapor shows nearly cut-off low over the southern Rockies with upper trof carving through the Pac NW. Weak flow aloft across the Northern Plains with upper ridge just off to our northeast. At the surface, robust return flow continues with lee trof advancing off the front range, with a notable dry line over northeast WY early this afternoon. Upper low over the southern Rockies weakens and ejects northeast as upper trof digs in the west on Wednesday. A brief period of gusty northwest winds possible in the morning as weak surface trof moves through.
1117 PM CDT Tue May 18 2021 (This evening through Wednesday) In the abnormally moist airmass that will around beyond Wednesday, rain and thunderstorms will occur with the aid of residual mesoscale boundaries and weak flow aloft around the closed low over northeastern NM. This low will move little through Wednesday allowing for several weak impulses to affect much of Oklahoma with the main area for heavy rainfall continuing to be southeastern Oklahoma.
Dry, quiet weather will continue to prevail under high pressure.
1135 PM MDT Tue May 18 2021 The upper level trough that has been dominate in the region is expected to get absorbed into the main flow ahead of a Pacific Northwest trough digging towards the southeast early tomorrow morning. Current model guidance has an omega blocking pattern setting up over the central CONUS with an upper level closed low developing over the Pacific Northwest.