Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
This matches the idea earlier that while some locations may run a bit cooler than NBM, overall trends match forecast (40s for lows more common). The ridging continues. Full disk satellite water vapor loop indicates a spinning upper low in the vicinity of northern Ontario.
1041 PM MDT Sat Jun 4 2022 Overall, no major changes to the short term forecast with an upper level low remaining nearly stationary across Ontario, and as a result, zonal flow dominating the upper levels with several short wave disturbances propagating within the flow.
1224 AM CDT Sun Jun 5 2022 Weak ridging has cleared skies out this evening, leaving a great night for outdoor activities. Afternoon highs should be similar tomorrow (upper 80s), but overnight lows will be warmer and stickier for the rest of the week.
1157 PM CDT Sat Jun 4 2022 The area will experience another pleasant night as high pressure ridging remains over central Illinois with light winds and a very dry air mass. This high pressure will push east as a weather system develops out west and moves toward the area tomorrow. With this, overnight lows will be in the lower 60s. Temps are expected to fall into the lower 60s overnight under partly cloudy to mostly cloudy skies. Another pleasant night is expected as a high pressure ridge sits over the area. Overnight lows tonight will be in the lower 60s, though could be slightly warmer give the expected cloud cover.
Also the location of the low-level jet axis will be in closer proximity to central/south central Kansas, therefore beginning stages look to impact our area earlier this evening compared to last night's event.
Some weak low-level convergence associated with an inverted trough will help enhance the cu field, mainly east of I-65. Fcst soundings show very little instability due to warmer air/capping in the mid-levels. Southerly low-level flow increases tonight ahead of a stronger wave of low pressure.
(Today and tonight) While the past few days have seen some helpful rainfall across much of the West Central Texas area, the pattern looks to change today as upper level ridging begins to set up in earnest, keeping the area dry. The 850 mb thermal ridge will begin to shift east into western portions of our area. Farther off to the east, temperatures will be a bit cooler in the 98- 101 degree range. Most models, however, are slightly cooler in this area with highs not nearing the ConvT and not creating any convection. With continued breezy conditions out of the south tonight, lows will be quite mild in the low to mid 70s areawide.
Temperatures across the forecast area are generally in the low to upper 40s with light and variable winds. Meanwhile, daytime highs today are progged to top off in the low 70s inland with upper 50s/low 60s along the lakeshore with higher RH values to alleviate the fire weather threat. Starting off tonight, closed mid-level low just north of Lake Superior will begin its pivot southeastward into the Upper Great Lakes as a low pressure lifts northeastward into southwest Wisconsin.
130 AM EDT Sun Jun 5 2022 High pressure remains in control through Sunday night as temperatures slowly moderate back above average.
1229 AM CDT Sun Jun 5 2022 (Tonight) Mostly clear/mild wx conditions prevailed across the central TN Valley this Sat evening, with current temps falling predom into the lower/mid 70s. With dew pts near 60F coupled with light winds, temp trends should continue to fall into the lower 60s/near 60F heading into the early morning hrs.
As this shifts to the east today, we'll see a weak trough clip our area this afternoon.
Upper low currently rotating over southern Canada will drop towards Lake of the Woods today, which will help push a cold front down into the CWA. Temps will be a few degrees cooler today thanks to the frontal passage as well as clouds coming in across the south. Quiet conditions as northwesterly flow and weak high pressure set in again.
1047 PM CDT Sat Jun 4 2022 Updated aviation portion for 06Z TAF issuance Cooler and rather rainy for the next couple days. A series of closed upper lows at 50-60N across NOAM and adjacent oceans will keep a modest, relatively low-amplitude band of westerlies in place across the central and northern CONUS throughout the upcoming work week. There may be more breaks in the clouds here, too, which will lead to temperatures a couple degrees warmer across northern WI.
Low pressure is located along the southern boundary across southeast WY. The more favorable conditions for any stronger storms should develop from the Black Hills area to southern SD during the afternoon and early evening, where more sun and warmer temps should lead to MUCAPE values of 500 to over 1000 j/kg. Highs today will mostly be in the mid 60s to mid 70s, a bit cooler across far northwest SD where clouds linger through much of the day.
The low-level jet and instability should both be stronger with this MCS, increasing the likelihood of severe storms.
As the low-level ridging over southeast TX shifts east, return flow will begin to develop and advect shallow moisture nwd through the Hill Country and possibly into our southeast counties, which could result in some patchy fog or low stratus, but confidence is low with this potential at this time.
355 PM MST Tue Nov 3 2020 Moderate instability and moisture over our SW CWA has kept clouds in place through the day and limited sunshine and hence temperatures are a bit cooler than expected. Modest ascent coming from a wave that was a closed low to our West earlier today on the H500 hand analysis map. Overnight lows to be near the same trend though the dry air snow up high will keep the some of the high valleys and usual sinks on the cool side of normal.
The high in Topeka may fall a few degrees short of the 84 degree record that was set in 1924; the high for today is currently 82 degrees.
It's been another pleasant day across southeast TX today as ridging aloft moves overhead. The main weather story on Wednesday will be warmer temperatures.
This is as a trough of low pressure slides eastward into the area. The trough will continue to slide east tomorrow bisecting the CWA by tomorrow afternoon. Winds ahead of this trough will generally be from the south with northerly winds behind this feature.
Temperatures tomorrow are expected to be slightly warmer than they were today as the southwesterly winds pick up during the afternoon. Slight compressional warming will allow for more locations to climb into the lower 80s.
625 PM EST Tue Nov 3 2020 Dry weather continues as high pressure settles in for the rest of the week and into the weekend. Clear, dry weather will continue as high pressure settles in and remains in control for the duration of the near term period. Model soundings indicate an inversion will set up tonight resulting in cooler temperatures in the valleys. Lows tonight are expected to range from mid 30s to 40 degrees in the lowlands and upper 20s to mid 30s in the mountains. Southwest flow in the low levels will pull warmer air into the area allowing temperatures to rise above normal on Wednesday. High's are forecast in the mid to upper 60s for the lowlands and 50s to mid 60s in the mountains.
551 PM CST Tue Nov 3 2020 Northwest upper level flow and ridging over the western United States brings calm weather for our area. Strong southwesterly flow at the low levels continues to usher in warm air from the SW US. Late in the week, an upper level trough deepens into the Pacific NW. Model guidance hints a similar frontal structure to the cold front that passed through early last week which brought gloomy days and breezy conditions both ahead and behind the front along with multiple days of precipitation.
/27/ Prior discussion below: Tonight and Wednesday: High pressure at the surface continues to slide east of the region through the short term period. This, while ridging aloft steadily increases from the west. Then Wednesday afternoon, highs will top out in the low and middle 70s under sunny skies. /19/ Wednesday night through Tuesday: Come Wednesday evening a >1028mb high will be centered just off the mid Atlantic seaboard and ridging back across the Gulf coast states.
The upper level ridge to our west begins to weaken tomorrow with a more zonal flow overtaking the region.
Tonight will be partly cloudy and cold as a warm front crosses the area. On Wednesday, skies should clear and high pressure over the mid Atlantic region should bring fair and mild weather through the end of the week. The clouds will decrease from west to east Wednesday morning, as the warm front moves northeast of our region. South- southwest flow developing in the low levels and rising heights aloft on Wednesday will result in a nice afternoon warmup.
220 AM CST Wed Nov 4 2020 All clear this morning across the Tennessee Valley with high pressure continuing to promote tranquil weather. Some slightly higher boundary layer moisture (dewpoints in the upper 30s) will keep temperatures around 10 degrees warmer than last night, which will likely prevent any frost issues this morning. As a result, we can expect even milder temperatures tonight and a slightly cooler day tomorrow.
An upper trough will develop and strengthen off the PacNW coast before starting to move inland Thursday night. Snow levels will initially be above 8000 or 9000 feet, so any precip that does occur will be rain - except possibly snow on the highest peaks. Winds will remain mainly light, except gusty during the afternoons in the higher elevations.
The Florida Keys and coastal waters are situated between a lower tropospheric ridge sitting over the southeast and eastern seaboard and weakened Hurricane Eta now over Nicaragua.
341 AM EST Wed Nov 4 2020 The morning surface analysis shows an area of high pressure remains set up to our east and weak southerly flow at the surface. The heights will rise slightly today, with relatively weak ridging across the southeast US. Before this, the eastern valleys will decouple once again and lead to 10 degree ridge/valley temperatures splits by Thursday morning. These high clouds will stick around on Thursday, with even some heights falls noted as the mid-level trough pushing east.
At 2 AM, scattered clouds, remember those, were starting to creep in from the southwest in association with a weak upper level trough. There is some concern that high cloud cover (associated with the aforementioned trough) could limit temperatures a bit, but it wasn't high enough to warrant bucking recent trends. Expect this will help temperatures fall into the lower 40s, with some of the lower lying river valleys tipping toward the upper 30s.
/27/ Prior discussion below: Tonight and Wednesday: High pressure at the surface continues to slide east of the region through the short term period. This, while ridging aloft steadily increases from the west. Then Wednesday afternoon, highs will top out in the low and middle 70s under sunny skies.
149 AM MST Wed Nov 4 2020 Today will be warm and breezy across NE Montana as a wave in zonal flow aloft brings a dry cold front with gusty west winds. The warm weather continues on Thursday with an upper ridge over the region.
Another clear night tonight with a strong upper-level ridge building over the region. With increasing 500-mb heights which lead to warmer temperatures during the day today, we will also see warmer overnight lows tonight than we saw last night. Temperatures should only drop into the upper 30s to lower 40s overnight, with our warmest temperatures being on the ridge-tops which sit above the low-level inversion. Not expecting any frost due to the warmer temperatures.
Currently, westerly breezes are helping the already warmer than normal airmass over-achieve, temperature-wise, again today. Zonal flow aloft will transition to ridging just east of the CWA as a western CONUS trough deepens late in the week/early in the weekend.
1239 AM EST Wed Nov 4 2020 GOES water vapor channels highlight well a broad mid-upper level ridge extending over much of the western half of CONUS. Through the day, this eastward moving ridge has helped to push out a lingering surface boundary draped across the eastern forecast area and as a result, skies have begun clearing in the east. For the evening, as the sun continues to pivot across the sky toward the western horizon, the low level inversion will strengthen as surface temps cool, decoupling the lower boundary layer. We'll see temps falling into the 30s away from the lakeshores and the low 40s by the water. Given the similar setup and that daytime mixing exceeded guidance today, I hedged max temps on the high side, putting 60s in the west half and mid 50s in the east.
922 PM MST Tue Nov 3 2020 Current surface map places weak trof over the eastern Dakotas.
The ridge aloft is a little to its south stretching from the Gulf eastward across the state.
Surface analysis shows a large area of high pressure centered over the Deep South this afternoon. The center of this high pressure system will redevelop and strengthen over the Central Appalachians and Mid Atlantic region during the short term. This will place our eastern zones closer to the center of the high while our western zones fall increasingly under the influence of return southerly flow along the western periphery. Thermal belt ridges will remain warmer, with about a 10 degree ridge valley split between the colder valley locations and the warmer ridge tops.
116 AM EST Wed Nov 4 2020 Canadian high pressure will continue to provide cool, dry air through Wednesday. High pressure overhead is the dominant feature for the next 36 hours with dry weather and clear skies. With light wind and clear skies associated with the high pressure system, good radiational cooling is expected again tonight with some patchy frost in some locations, mainly inland, although not as widespread as last night. Temperatures will warm closer to normal for both highs in the 70s and lows in the 50s Wednesday & Wednesday night as the high pressure influence continues.
1042 PM CST Tue Nov 3 2020 A forecast update is in place for cooler lows tonight using a blend of the guidance plus bias correction.
Could see a few more clouds with this wave, which may be enough to keep temps a tad bit cooler.
Clear and calm conditions will prevail tonight as high pressure sits over the area. Low temps will be in the lower to mid 30s north and mid to upper 30s south. VFR conditions through the period as high pressure prevails. CDG Chattanooga Airport, TN 40 69 44 68 47 / 0 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 38 67 42 66 45 / 0 0 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 38 66 42 65 45 / 0 0 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 33 66 38 65 42 / 0 0 0 0 0.
A weak meridional flow will be in place across the southern CONUS with a trough tonight through tomorrow morning. This will be followed by a ridge beginning to build in as we approach tomorrow night. Overall, although subtle features in the predominate zonal flow, especially for the trough moving through, no precipitation is expected in the short term forecast period. Temperatures are expected tor remain above average today and tomorrow with high temperatures in the mid to upper 70s with a few locations possibly in the lower 80s.
The ridge axis will remain across the area on Wednesday and Wednesday night, with dry conditions and temperatures around 20 degrees above normal expected.
This trough has caused some elevated winds in the southern Panhandle this afternoon. A little cooler tomorrow over today as GFS 700mb temperatures fall from +10C this afternoon to +6C Wednesday. A tad warmer Thursday as 700mb temperatures climb to +8C. Ridge axis shifts east Thursday afternoon with increasing winds developing on the western side of the ridge.
1121 PM EST Tue Nov 3 2020 GOES water vapor channels highlight well a broad mid-upper level ridge extending over much of the western half of CONUS. Through the day, this eastward moving ridge has helped to push out a lingering surface boundary draped across the eastern forecast area and as a result, skies have begun clearing in the east. For the evening, as the sun continues to pivot across the sky toward the western horizon, the low level inversion will strengthen as surface temps cool, decoupling the lower boundary layer. We'll see temps falling into the 30s away from the lakeshores and the low 40s by the water. Given the similar setup and that daytime mixing exceeded guidance today, I hedged max temps on the high side, putting 60s in the west half and mid 50s in the east.
A short wave trough over the Colorado River Valley at the CA/AZ border will continue to move eastward flattening the upper level ridge over the Southern Plains by Wed. This will promote warm westerly downsloping winds that will bring warmer temperatures into the area by Wed. Thursday we will see the short wave trough move east placing us under an upper level ridge again, this will promote temps +10 degrees above normal into the weekend. A Maritime Polar upper level trough will drop into Western CONUS this weekend. The trough will dive over CA placing us under upper level SW flow.
The northern periphery of a 592 dam upper ridge centered over far south TX will pivot over Arkansas tomorrow and support further warming, with temps in the low to mid 70s commonplace by afternoon. Meanwhile, a compact mid-level wave will approach tomorrow into Thursday, suppressing the upper ridge and shaving a few degrees of temps Thursday afternoon.
918 PM CST Tue Nov 3 2020 Another clear night tonight with a strong upper-level ridge building over the region. With increasing 500-mb heights which lead to warmer temperatures during the day today, we will also see warmer overnight lows tonight than we saw last night. Temperatures should only drop into the upper 30s to lower 40s overnight, with our warmest temperatures being on the ridge-tops which sit above the low-level inversion. Not expecting any frost due to the warmer temperatures.
337 AM EST Wed Nov 4 2020 High pressure will build across the southeastern US tonight, then migrate offshore for the remainder of the week. Ample radiational cooling has been able to take shape with a surface anticyclone set up over eastern West Virginia into western Virginia. This will place a lower bound on overnight temperatures which mitigates the threat for any sub-freezing readings. At the surface, the parent ridge will slide offshore allowing for a return of southerly flow. With an upstream trough moving through overnight, an increase in clouds is expected which will raise low temperatures a bit further. In its wake, a stronger upper ridge approaches from the Ohio River Valley bringing further warmth to the region.
145 AM CST Wed Nov 4 2020 Texas continues to be under the influence of upper level high pressure early this morning with ridging extending well into northern Canada. This feature will pass overhead this afternoon and as it moves east of the area on Thursday, ridging will become re- established over the desert southwest for a short period until the next significant storm system dives southward along the west coast this weekend.
Other than a few high clouds moving through the region, expect mostly clear skies with overnight lows in the low to mid 40s. /Tonight through Tomorrow Night/ Upper-level ridging will continue to pull east, as a trough begins to move through the midwest. This ridge movement will allow for transport winds to shift back to the south and southeast. However, cooler ground temperatures will help to absorb some of this afternoon heating and warm-air advection.
Some moistening of the low levels on Thursday and increasing high clouds ahead of a weak cold front suggest maxes back down into the low to mid 60s before temperatures begin a slow upward trajectory through the weekend.
A warm front will lift north across the area ahead of low pressure that will pass north of the Great Lakes on Wednesday night. An upper level ridge will expand across the area to end the week with a prolonged stretch of above normal temperatures. As the upper level trough over New England continues to pull away to the east tonight, lingering mid and high clouds will clear across Pennsylvania. Wednesday will continue to feature a dry airmass with breezy southwest winds as low pressure moves into western Ontario and lifts a warm front north across the area.
and Thursday Dry and unseasonably warm weather will continue across the western Great Lakes region through at least Thursday as an upper level ridge dominates the region. A weak cold front will track through the region late tonight into Thursday, however this will only lead to a modest fall in temperatures from today into Thursday as 850 mb temperatures only fall 5 degrees Celsius. Highs today are once again expected to be 15 to 20 degrees above normal, soaring into the upper 60s to lower 70s, with cooler temperatures near Lake Michigan. Highs on Thursday will be a few degrees cooler but still well above normal, ranging from the low 60s across the north, with middle to upper 60s across central and east-central Wisconsin.
No change in air mass and full sun are expected, plus lows tonight should be several degrees warmer to start off the day. With a better chance for some cloud cover as we move from 10th percentile moisture to closer to average some temperatures could be slightly cooler tomorrow. Cloud cover is not expected to be widespread enough to lead significantly cooler weather.
1059 PM CST Tue Nov 3 2020 Northwest upper level flow and ridging over the western United States brings calm weather for our area. Strong southwesterly flow at the low levels continues to usher in warm air from the SW US. Late in the week, an upper level trough deepens into the Pacific NW. Model guidance hints a similar frontal structure to the cold front that passed through early last week which brought gloomy days and breezy conditions both ahead and behind the front along with multiple days of precipitation.
Today, upper-level ridging will continue to dominate keeping skies clear. GEFS mean 850 mb temps around 13-14 C today are about 1 C warmer than yesterday. Tonight, a short wave riding along the northern stream through the Canadian Prairies will drag a dry cold front across the U.
Broad ridging should yield more westerly flow aloft, thus moderating this morning's low temperature to near average values despite efficient radiational cooling. Dry weather will continue today with persistent high pressure.
Scattered cirrus currently are expected to thin out through Wednesday as a very weak trough passes through. A more pronounced light north wind is expected Thursday, as high pressure ridging builds in with increasing heights aloft.
Clear skies with a ssw flow will keep warmer temperatures in the northwest and the coolest readings in the southeast. Mid and upper level ridging will then build across much of the eastern US through the weekend.
924 PM MST Tue Nov 3 2020 Skies remain partly cloudy as the weak upper level trough moves over the area tonight. Northwest flow will develop behind the departing trough on Wednesday, with a very weak cool front passing through. Despite the passage of this cool front, Wednesday also looks very warm, with highs in the mid 70s along the urban corridor and upper 70s in the far east, with cooler temperatures across the higher terrain.
Clouds will be increasing somewhat as a mid-level trough approaches the region from the southern plains. Upper troughing centered over the southern Rockies will contract, allowing for a trough to drop down into the region and form a closed low by the end of the period.
A weak upper level ridge will be over the region centered to our Southwest.
They are currently in the lower and mid 70s which is close to the record highs for the date. High pressure will provide generally clear skies through Wednesday. High temperatures on Wednesday will once again be near record highs in the lower and mid-70s.
This is expected to dampen highs by a couple of degrees on Thursday, after we push into the lower 70s on Wednesday.
Strong high pressure will be north northeast of the region this period. This pattern will lead to an increasingly moist and warmer onshore flow.