Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
The threat of freezing temperatures has ended, so the Freeze Warning will expire at 8 am EDT. For the remainder of the day, a cold front will approach from the northwest and move through the region this afternoon into the early evening. For tonight through Halloween, dry weather is expected as high pressure builds in. Highs tomorrow will again be on the cooler side in the wake of the cold front, topping out in the upper 40s to lower 50s.
A cold front will begin to move south across the beginning around 31/20z. Low-end VFR ceilings are expected to develop late in the TAF period behind the cold front. /issued 224 AM CDT Mon Oct 30 2017/ South winds ahead of a cold front across eastern Oklahoma bringing much warmer conditions to the ArkLaTex this morning with temperatures currently in the lower 50s across much of the region. Temperatures should remain fairly mild with lows tonight falling into the low to mid 40s and highs on Tuesday in the 60s.
1143 AM CDT Mon Oct 30 2017 A cold front will move across and exit the Ozarks this morning bringing a wind shift to the northwest and another surge of cooler temperatures.
Cold front has already moved well to our south this morning. 'Back door' dry cold front passed through Jerome and Twin Falls around midnight MDT and wind shifted to east 20 to 30 mph.
/Issued 352 AM EDT Mon Oct 30 2017/ High pressure is centered the northern Gulf Coast this morning. The high center will drift eastward through today with the surface flow turning more southwest by late this afternoon or early this evening. The high center should move offshore the SE GA/NE FL coasts later on Tuesday.
632 AM CDT Mon Oct 30 2017 A sharp cold front will bring gusty north-northeast winds to all three terminals this morning. This cold front will be roughly bisecting the CWA by 12Z and should clear the southeast zones by 15Z. The early day FROPA will mean a much cooler day than yesterday with highs mostly in the 50s today. A cool night will follow as surface ridging settles over northwest Texas. Attention will then turn to a compact upper low currently moving into southern California. This upper low is progged to open up and weaken as it translates steadily eastward through tonight, approaching West Texas by early Tuesday. After a couple of cool days to kick off the week, much warmer weather will follow for the remainder of the week and right on into the weekend.
804 AM EDT Mon Oct 30 2017 Cool and dry air in place today under high pressure. The high risk for rip currents will continue, as though conditions are calming, seas will be slower to subside. High pressure building over the state will keep winds light then overnight.
Expect scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms mainly near the mountains and east of Tucson tonight followed by cooler temperatures Tuesday.
930 AM EDT Mon Oct 30 2017 Intense low pressure will track to our west today bringing strong winds and some rain. The low will continue north through Quebec tonight into Tuesday as strong gusty winds continue. Strong southeast winds are expected this morning as the low continues to intensify to our west. Further north, the strongest winds will come later this morning into early afternoon with the passage of a cold front. Highs today will generally be in the lower 60s. The low will continue to track well north of the region overnight. Lgt to mdt rnfl Thu and Thu eve will become shwry by late Thu ngt into Fri as low pres conts to track ENE toward N Cntrl QB followed by a trailing cold front across the Rgn arnd midday Fri.
538 AM MDT Mon Oct 30 2017 A band of snow and light freezing drizzle tracked across southeast WY and the western NE Panhandle early this morning, and has pushed south of the WY-CO border per the latest KCYS radar loop.
1035 AM CDT Mon Oct 30 2017 Cold front extends from central Arkansas through southeast Oklahoma this morning, with gusty north winds behind it.
An upper level ridge will bring mostly sunny and dry weather to Western Washington through Tuesday with near normal temperatures.
1157 AM CDT Mon Oct 30 2017 Colder air behind a cold front today, along with windy conditions. There may also be isolated showers today just to our north where cooler temps aloft exist, but don't believe they would make it this far south. Otherwise, quite a bit of cloud cover across the region this morning, and while that may thin a bit this afternoon, it will likely take until this evening to begin clearing out altogether as high pressure moves in. Temps remain on the chilly side with highs only in the lower 40s Tuesday, then dropping into the lower 30s Tuesday night.
614 AM CDT Mon Oct 30 2017 A cold front will move across and exit the Ozarks this morning bringing a wind shift to the northwest and another surge of cooler temperatures.
A pair of systems will bring increasing clouds and cooler temperatures to start the week. A stronger system will bring windy and cooler conditions by the weekend along with mountain snow and chances for valley rain. Small concentric upper low nearing Yuma looking more like a donut hole on water vapor imagery this morning. Arc of high clouds along with the upper low will continue to migrate eastward today. Satellite shows secondary band of cloudiness associated with elongated E-W trough over northern Nevada. This weak trough will drop south across the area tonight and Halloween. Weak area of forcing associated with tomorrow's trough still looks like it will generate some light showers over the higher terrain of mainly Lincoln, Clark and Mohave Counties.
632 AM CDT Mon Oct 30 2017 Area remains under the influence of high pressure as another system moves down and into cntrl La by tmrw mrng before stalling.
727 AM CDT Mon Oct 30 2017 Temperatures have been slowly warming over the past several hours and have warmed above freezing area wide.
TFJ Synoptic Setup: A ridge runs up north from southern California and then steers off-shore along the British Columbian coast. A cold core trough drops southern from Nunavut into the Mississippi Valley. The high Plains of the US and Canada including northeast Montana lie in between these two feature on the cooler side of northwest to northern flow pattern.
1008 AM EDT Mon Oct 30 2017 High pressure early this week. Temperatures have risen above freezing where the Freeze Warning was in place. Upper level trough axis has passed to the east, and clouds/precip will gradually be on the decrease this morning. A 500mb ripple will move through late today into tonight, with a weak trough/back door cold front at the surface. Despite some sunshine midday, stuck on the cooler side of guidance for today. Ended up a bit cooler than the previous forecast across the NW where clouds should be decreasing after midnight, and a touch warmer south and east where clouds will be thicker.
Expect winds to strengthen as pressure gradient tightens between lowering pressures over the Gulf and the departing Atlantic ridge.
756 PM EDT Mon Jun 5 2017 A cold front will move through the region this evening. A large upper level low pressure system will then meander across the upper Ohio Valley through much of the rest of the week. Line of storms along pre-frontal trough will continue to track south through the late afternoon and exit the region early this evening. Other storms have developed in an area of convergence near the Ohio-Indiana border closer to the cold front. Area will be between high pressure in the western Great Lakes and an inverted trough along the Appalachians through the period.
612 PM CDT Mon Jun 5 2017 Cooler and much drier air is advecting into central IL behind a cold front now moving into the I-70 corridor.
922 PM EDT Mon Jun 5 2017 A weak cold front will cross the region overnight. An upper level low pressure area will then meander over the northeastern U.
A cold front will move across the area Tuesday aftn and evng bringing a wind shift and and end to rain chances. /22/ Tonight and Tuesday: An elongated upper-level low pressure system over East Texas could be seen on water vapor imagery this afternoon. A cold front is still expected to push south through the forecast area tomorrow as the upper low pivots eastward, with drier air and lower rain chances working into northern parts of the area by the afternoon.
However, the cold front to the north means business and remains associated with scattered convection.
A weak "back-door" cold front will move across eastern Oklahoma tomorrow afternoon, and will provide a bit of a reinforcement to the northeast winds at KPNC, and possibly as far as KOKC/KOUN by 00Z. /issued 318 PM CDT Mon Jun 5 2017/ The mid/upper-level low that has brought unsettled weather the last few days has shifted into northeast Texas; however, isolated to scattered showers continue near the northwest periphery of the low, primarily across southeast Oklahoma.
0 inch range and weak deep-layer steering currents to the north of an upper low off the LA coast, locally heavy rainfall and flooding will be the primary concern with any storms that develop. A few breaks in the clouds tomorrow could lead to highs a deg or two higher than Monday, in the lower 80s. Much drier air will move in by Tuesday night with cooler air approaching from the north.
An upper low will move along the northern Gulf coast overnight tonight.
Surface wise, a western Atlantic ridge extends across south Florida with a weak area of low pressure located in the western Gulf of Mexico.
702 PM CDT Mon Jun 5 2017 Not much to talk about in the short term with high pressure continuing overhead. Upper-level ridge over the region will be squeezed between an approaching trough from the Canadian Prairies and the departing low over the central and eastern Great Lakes.
744 PM EDT Mon Jun 5 2017 A cold front will move through the area tonight. Scattered showers accompany an upper level low through much of the workweek.
1055 PM MDT Mon Jun 5 2017 Latest upper analysis shows a high amplitude SW-NE oriented upper ridge extending from the SRN Rockies, across the nrn plains and then northward across Manitoba to Hudson Bay. An upper trough is currently approaching the forecast area from the west. With southeasterly winds, most observations are showing dewpoints in the lower 50s, however dewpoints adjacent to the western/downslope side of the Black Hills are only in the mid 30 to mid 40s. As the cold front moves into the forecast area. The cold front will continue to slowly move eastward, across south central SD on Tuesday. Highs will be cooler on Tuesday behind the front, with readings in the 70s and lower 80s.
Cold front has already moved entirely through our eastern CWA edge with all of the showers and thunderstorms now over western North Dakota. BMickelson Previous short term discussion: Synoptic Setup: Near term begins with an area of hot high pressure over the Lower Intermountain West and a ridge jutting out of it through Wyoming and into the western Dakotas. Tuesday: High pressure will move in from the north along with cooler temperatures and stabilize out the atmosphere. Aloft the meso-ridge from the Washington will intensify and gain more influence over eastern Montana leading to clear skies and dry conditions.
504 PM MDT Mon Jun 5 2017 Latest upper analysis shows a high amplitude SW-NE oriented upper ridge extending from the SRN Rockies, across the nrn plains and then northward across Manitoba to Hudson Bay. An upper trough is currently approaching the forecast area from the west. With southeasterly winds, most observations are showing dewpoints in the lower 50s, however dewpoints adjacent to the western/downslope side of the Black Hills are only in the mid 30 to mid 40s. As the cold front moves into the forecast area. The cold front will continue to slowly move eastward, across south central SD on Tuesday. Highs will be cooler on Tuesday behind the front, with readings in the 70s and lower 80s.
A trough of low pressure will bring cooler weather by the weekend. That means fair and hot conditions over the deserts, and a cooler marine airmass with lots of stratus along the coast and over the coastal waters. The strong marine inversion will remain in place as high pressure builds over the SW, making it difficult to clear coastal areas each day. Later in the week, a large low pressure system, centered over the Gulf of Alaska will begin to settle SE.
940 PM EDT Mon Jun 5 2017 A large upper level low pressure system will then meander across the upper Ohio Valley through much of the rest of the week. Area will be between high pressure in the western Great Lakes and an inverted trough along the Appalachians through the period.
938 PM CDT Mon Jun 5 2017 Showers have dissipated this evening with no additional development anticipated with waning influence of upper low. Tuesday will be warm with more sun than today, before a backdoor cold front drops into the area by Wed morning. This will bring some drier air and allow the low temps to fall down into the 50s for some locations on Wed/Thu.
1023 PM EDT Mon Jun 5 2017 A cold front will progress southward through the Carolinas tonight and Tuesday. A stronger cold front will move through the region late Tuesday and then stall near the Southeast coast for much of the work week. Lows Tuesday morning are expected to range from the lower 60s north to the upper 60s/near 70 south/southeast.
/Issued 938 PM CDT Mon Jun 5 2017/ Showers have dissipated this evening with no additional development anticipated with waning influence of upper low. Tuesday will be warm with more sun than today, before a backdoor cold front drops into the area by Wed morning. This will bring some drier air and allow the low temps to fall down into the 50s for some locations on Wed/Thu.
/00Z Update/ Another day with scattered convection across the eastern half of the area on the trailing edge of the upper level low/trof that has now moved east of our region. As the upper level low/trof continues east on Tuesday will see a noticeable decrease in convection. On Tuesday, we will continue to see an active northwest flow aloft, but should also see a decrease in moisture due to northerly flow in the low-levels.
613 PM CDT Mon Jun 5 2017 Southward moving west-east boundary centered near I-70 at this time is more of a dew point boundary than true cold front. This boundary has much warmer temperatures at this time to its north, and like several of the CAMS were showing, has initiated isolated thunderstorms this afternoon. High pressure will build into the area later tonight in the wake of the front with northeast low level flow bringing cooler air into the region overnight and thru the day on Tuesday. Also raised highs a bit tomorrow from the previous forecast in light of warmer upstream readings today.
A weak cold front approached the region later Tuesday night, with a prefrontal trough acting as a focus for initiation in the evening.
The upper trough axis is laid right over eastern Texas and this will advance east and be over Louisiana tomorrow. Upper trough axis/'cold' front moves through and into the Gulf by midnight so will need to keep an eye on s/w rotating around the back side of the low late tonight/Tuesday for redevelopment of storms.
847 PM CDT Mon Jun 5 2017 Latest surface analysis indicates the main cold front has slipped into far southern Illinois this evening with a second boundary/wind shift making its way south across the forecast area. The main push of cooler and drier air is lagging behind this secondary boundary about 50 to 75 miles to the north where early evening temperatures were in the low to mid 60s. We expect the wind gusts to gradually diminish later this evening as high pressure builds south out of the upper Great Lakes. Plenty of sunshine expected on Tuesday with temperatures cooling back to the mid 70s north and east to the lower 80s over far southeast Illinois. Cooler and much drier air is advecting into central IL behind a cold front now moving into the I-70 corridor.
Overnight VFR conditions are expected however additional convection has the opportunity to develop with an upper level low pressure area spinning over Eastern Texas. The chances for additional showers and thunderstorms remain at least 20-30 percent for the overnight and Tuesday morning before a low pressure trough moves through the area ending the chance of rain with VFR prevailing Tuesday. Water vapor imagery shows a closed 500 mb low pressure centered over northeast Texas into Louisiana and a mid-level trough axis extending south from this low this afternoon. A weak perturbation rounding the western periphery of the mid to upper low should provided some lift with this unstable atmosphere for the next several hours.
As of 2z, an upper low and open wave was centered over eastern TX with numerous showers and storms across the CWA. With overcast skies and a humid airmass not expecting low temps to drop much from current obs with temps hovering in the low 70s through the evening. /TW/ Prior discussion below: Tonight and Tuesday: An elongated upper-level low pressure system over East Texas could be seen on water vapor imagery this afternoon. A cold front is still expected to push south through the forecast area tomorrow as the upper low pivots eastward, with drier air and lower rain chances working into northern parts of the area by the afternoon.
1053 PM CDT Mon Jun 5 2017 Southward moving west-east boundary centered near I-70 at this time is more of a dew point boundary than true cold front. This boundary has much warmer temperatures at this time to its north, and like several of the CAMS were showing, has initiated isolated thunderstorms this afternoon. High pressure will build into the area later tonight in the wake of the front with northeast low level flow bringing cooler air into the region overnight and thru the day on Tuesday. Also raised highs a bit tomorrow from the previous forecast in light of warmer upstream readings today.
though a cold front dropping south across MO this evening will push through the state by Tue afternoon.
/issued 252 PM CDT Mon Jun 5 2017/ (Tonight and Tuesday) The persistent upper trough that has been bringing beneficial rain to west central Texas will continue to move towards the east and away from the area. Tuesday will be dry as upper ridging builds to our west.
High pressure will persist over Wisconsin during the TAF period. Models are in good agreement with high pressure slowly sliding southeast into the region tonight and Tuesday.
1156 PM CDT Mon Jun 5 2017 A low pressure system that has been impacting the terminals the last few days with rounds of convection, low ceilings, and reduced visibilities in heavy downpours will continue through much of the forecast period. Some improvement is expected in terms of the convection and reduced visiblities between 00z and 06z as a cold front and some drier air finally move in from the north. After 00z, ceilings should dip back into MVFR range as an elevated thermal trough associated with the passing upper level low lingers through the evening hours.
1141 PM CDT Mon Jun 5 2017 A cold front will makes it way into central Missouri this evening and through the remainder of the forecast area overnight. Highs will top off in the lower to mid 80s.
1035 PM EDT Mon Jun 5 2017 A cold front will move through the area tonight. Scattered showers accompany an upper level low through much of the workweek.
1031 PM EDT Mon Jun 5 2017 The airmass across the region through Tuesday will be moist and unstable ahead of a slow moving cold front.
622 PM CDT Mon Jun 5 2017 Wx map shows low pressure aloft over SE TX/SW LA this evening, with scattered showers and thunderstorms rotating around our region. Kept a chance of showers and a few thunderstorms this evening and overnight, with the slightly higher chances over the eastern parishes and coastal waters as the upper low continues to move further southeast. We will see another round of thunderstorms tomorrow as the pesky upper low that has been bringing wave after wave of thunderstorms the past few days slides across the northern gulf coast and pushes a cold front through the region. Behind the front, drier and slightly cooler air will filter into the region for the latter half of the week.
833 PM MDT Mon Jun 5 2017 Strong thunderstorms ongoing east of a cold front over the Dakotas. Lows will be about 10 degrees cooler tonight than they were last night with temps ranging from the upper 40s west to mid 50s east. A cold front is pretty much out of the area. The high- resolution models show some convection moving out of NE Wyoming and into Carter County.
730 PM EDT Mon Jun 5 2017 The airmass across the region through Tuesday will be moist and unstable ahead of a slow moving cold front.
/issued 222 PM CDT Mon Jun 5 2017/ Upper low drifting into heart of cwa with rotation of movement of developing convection clearly seen around center of low. Pops to taper gradually from the nw overnight thru Tue as low drifts sewd, with the exception of higher aftn pops on Tue over north central LA, where aftn heating invok frontal boundary moving thru late in day trailing upper low.
The GFS shows some upper diffluent flow, which is supporting convection in the southeast Gulf, pushing in our general direction as the trough aloft digs into the western Gulf. An area of low pressure is forecast to form over the northern Gulf of Mexico near the Mississippi delta region.
929 PM CDT Mon Jun 5 2017 Convection continues to diminish in intensity/coverage this evening, despite the upper low ovhd. /issued 222 PM CDT Mon Jun 5 2017/ Upper low drifting into heart of cwa with rotation of movement of developing convection clearly seen around center of low. Pops to taper gradually from the nw overnight thru Tue as low drifts sewd, with the exception of higher aftn pops on Tue over north central LA, where aftn heating invok frontal boundary moving thru late in day trailing upper low.
A mid-level trough currently over the high plains will move through the region overnight as low pressure at the surface moves through Wisconsin. However, models are still depicting MUCAPE values reaching around 1000 j/kg ahead of the trough. Moreover, deep layer shear will increase to around 40 kts as the mid level trough moves through the area. The upper level trough will moves out of the area in the morning, leaving us in NW flow into the afternoon hours. NW flow at in the lower levels will help scour out the remaining moisture, helping skies clear in the afternoon.
Upper ridge moves east into Montana late Tuesday, which takes the area from a cyclonic NW flow to an anticyclonic NW/lighter flow Tuesday.
Expect a near repeat of today's weather tomorrow as the H5 ridge slowly breaks down and the TUTT low shifts closer to the Texas coast in western Gulf.
Scattered storms may impact NE OK again later tonight ahead of an approaching cold front.
At the surface, cold front stretches from extreme northeast Nebraska into northeast Colorado. Cold front is expected to sweep through the area Tue morning and by out of the forecast area by the early afternoon hours. A much cooler and especially drier airmass will be welcomed across the region behind the front with highs in mid to upper 80s Tue and low to mid 80s for Wed and Thu. The area of storms Will track from northwest to southeast along an advancing cold front.
1234 PM MST Mon Aug 21 2017 A decrease in monsoon moisture today will limit showers and thunderstorms to mainly the higher terrain of Gila County through Tuesday.
340 PM MDT Mon Aug 21 2017 Cooler air is pushing over the plains this afternoon, and will likely keep that area too stable for convection.
139 PM EDT Mon Aug 21 2017 High pressure will build south of the area today. Low pressure will approach from the west on Tuesday.
A cold front will bring more organized showers and thunderstorms on Tuesday, then drier and cooler air moves in for the rest of the week. Tonight a potent upper level system over the Hudson Bay will begin to wrap up into an upper level low and head south. Also at this time the cold front has yet to enter our CWA. However, as the cold front pushes off to our southeast and drier air begins to filter in behind the front, expect pcpn to taper off from the northwest as we head into Tuesday night. This will lead to mainly dry and cooler conditions.