Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
335 AM MDT Thu Jun 3 2021 A large ridge of high pressure will remain to our west through Friday before potentially breaking down as more energy moves in across the Pacific Northwest. The upper level flow will be out of the north-northeast so anticipate storms to fire off the high terrain initially this afternoon and drift into adjacent lower elevations of the Gunnison Basin, Durango and Pagosa Springs areas by late afternoon/early evening. Temperatures will maintain well above normal levels with highs rising into the mid 90s in many lower elevations today with upper 90s seen in some of the lower desert valleys of southeast Utah and west-central Colorado by Friday.
High pressure over Nevada slowly builds west through the rest of the week, keeping temperatures warm across much of northern Arizona. Temperature increased by 2-3 degrees for the high today, putting the base of the Grand Canyon over excessive heat criteria.
448 AM PDT Thu Jun 3 2021 High pressure will move southward across the area continuing the warming trend today.
1032 AM EDT Thu Jun 3 2021 Currently - A large high over the northwestern Atlantic Ocean extends a ridge west southwestward across Florida. An earlier cut off low near our area has now aligned itself further southeastwards across eastern Cuba, leaving our area under a sharp but weak upper level ridge. As a result, despite being within the western flank of the Atlantic ridge, scattered showers continue to persist across the Keys and surrounding waters this morning. Most of the activity has been located on all waters east of the Lower Key. A ridge extending across Florida will maintain gentle to moderate east to southeast breezes across Keys waters.
Water vapor imagery and model 500mb heights show a weakening ridge over the northern Atlantic where the flow has almost become zonal with the strong ridge remaining over the western U. with troughing over the Great Lakes. The western ridge will begin to flatten today and start a shift to the east. HREF ens mean 0-6km shear is still on the low side of 20 to 25 kts. We still should see good mixing to around 750mb and inverted v profiles but with increased moisture in the low to mid-levels there isn't as much dry air to potentially mix down. A fairly broad ridge over the plain states, will continue to move toward the upper Great Lakes region during the weekend.
417 PM EDT Thu Jun 3 2021 The afternoon surface analysis shows a cold front is working across Kentucky this afternoon. This wave is bringing in decent southwesterly flow aloft amid MLCAPE of around 1000 J/kg to help organize a line of convection ahead of the cold front. This particularly given the freezing levels are around 11 kft. Then by Friday we will see nearby trough axis keep clouds in for the morning before seeing some clearing in the afternoon, with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Skies will clear more Friday night and this would lead to a slight ridge/valley temperature splits.
High pressure will build from the southwest on Friday night and persist across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys through the weekend. Ahead of this trough, moisture advection and the left exit region of the upper jet has allowed for showers to persist across the region. As the trough slides east overnight with the upper level trough axis, conditions should dry across the region and have a dry forecast after midnight. Quiet weather expected this weekend as ridging builds northeast through the region.
A ridge centered over the Great Basin will slow drift eastward on Friday with continued subsident flow across our forecast area. The ample sunshine and warmer temperatures aloft will allow temperatures to approach 90 in Denver although it appears the high will be a degree or two short of that mark. High pressure over the western US will shift east from the weekend onward.
1138 AM MDT Thu Jun 3 2021 A large ridge of high pressure will remain to our west through Friday before potentially breaking down as more energy moves in across the Pacific Northwest. The upper level flow will be out of the north-northeast so anticipate storms to fire off the high terrain initially this afternoon and drift into adjacent lower elevations of the Gunnison Basin, Durango and Pagosa Springs areas by late afternoon/early evening. Temperatures will maintain well above normal levels with highs rising into the mid 90s in many lower elevations today with upper 90s seen in some of the lower desert valleys of southeast Utah and west-central Colorado by Friday.
Should see 925 temps rise into the low 20s celsius with any lingering morning mid clouds giving way to warmer conditions with sunshine and a southwest breeze.
The main upper trough moves further away by tomorrow but will leave behind a cutoff low across southwest Texas. Our area will be somewhat in between these two features, but cannot rule out an isolated shower or pop-up storm during the afternoon given little overall airmass change, especially across southern OK and north TX closer to the upper low.
At upper levels, seeing upper level ridging building in west to east across the Plains. With the ridging building in, expecting skies to stay clear overnight. The southern Sandhills and southwest Neb however, are expected to stay a bit "cooler", with highs "only" in the lower 90s, which will be ~5 degrees below the LBF record set last summer (2020).
200 PM MDT Thu Jun 3 2021 Water vapor shows large upper ridge over the Western CONUS extending into the Plains, with center of high over the Great Basin. At the surface, weak trof extends from northeast to southwest across SD.
254 PM EDT Thu Jun 3 2021 Strong to severe thunderstorms remain possible this afternoon and evening over the Lower Susquehanna Valley. FFG over the far SErn part of York Co and SErn half of Lanc Co are much lower than the rest of the lower Susq. Low pressure center to our north will also slide eastward and drag a weak trough/cold front in from the west late tonight. Cold front/trough will be just into the western zones around sunrise. Will keep the highest PoPs in the SE where they'll have more time to cook. An upper level ridge will begin to build into the eastern US with warmer temps building through the weekend.
Friday looks to be dry with high pressure prevailing at the surface.
Temperatures will be about 5-10 degrees cooler with increasing gusty winds in the afternoon.
Lows tonight will be in the middle 50s to the lower 60s. Highs will likely reach into the lower to middle 80s. Mid and upper ridge will build across the Midwest and Great Lakes region, allowing for increasing temps along with lots of sunshine. Daytime mixing up to 800mb or so will help transport warmer air aloft to the surface.
247 PM CDT Thu Jun 3 2021 154 PM CDT Copy, paste, and repeat! It's another warm early-summer day with current temperatures in the lower 80s, a westerly breezy, and mostly sunny skies. Overnight lows will fall into the low to mid 60s. Friday will be similar to today though with highs a few degrees warmer and in the upper 80s to around 90. An upper ridge will build across the region this weekend with high temps expected to reach the upper 80s to lower 90s.
Precipitable water values were just above two inches on the 12Z KBRO sounding and low to mid level moisture will remain high across south Texas tonight through Fri night as the 500mb low/trough across west Texas moves slowly eastward through the period.
On Friday, high pressure will build across the area. As this occurs, dew points will likely fall into the lower to mid-50s.
An isolated shower could still clip Allen Ct OH this afternoon near an exiting low-mid level trough axis. Decreasing sky cover, west winds gusting 15-20 mph, and warmer highs expected then into Friday afternoon under building heights aloft. An upper level ridge will continue to build over the area this weekend with mainly clear skies and above normal temperatures (highs mid 80s to low 90s).
Recycled moisture under the dominate ridge of high pressure remains concentrated at mid levels, with dry surface conditions, and fairly deep inverted-V soundings still prevalent across valley floors. Though, there's a slight shift to the southwest, due to the center of the high nudging eastward. High pressure remains in control of the weather across the Great Basin and Desert Southwest on Friday, so expect a very familiar pattern returning for one more day.
311 PM CDT Thu Jun 3 2021 Upper level trof moving slowly east across the MS River Valley this afternoon has helped to generate some scattered thunderstorm activity within an area of 2000+ CAPEs. As we do sometimes with upper trofs, we have received an Emergency Management report of a cold air funnel. Rest of the short term looks high and dry with high pressure in control at the surface and aloft.
For Friday, expect a repeat of today (though even warmer) as upper level ridging takes over with anomalously warm temperatures aloft.
249 PM CDT Thu Jun 3 2021 1930Z water vapor imagery shows upper level ridging over the western half of the country. At the surface, weak high pressure remained over the region.
(This evening through Friday) An upper trough remains over our area this afternoon. A weak closed low is expected to develop over the southern half of our area overnight with a slow eastward drift on Friday. The higher Pops and greater coverage will be generally across the area southeast of a Brownwood to Sonora line on Friday. Little temperature change is expected, with forecast lows tonight in the lower to mid 60s, and highs Friday in the upper 70s to lower 80s.
235 PM MDT Thu Jun 3 2021 Strong upper level ridge has pushed temps to the 90s today, the hottest day yet of 2021, and as of 2 pm daily records have already been set at Livingston and Billings. Satellite imagery shows an upstream trof off the Pacific coast. Temps Friday will again be quite hot as the ridge begins to flatten. Hail risk is lower but we could see some marginally severe hail in our northwest (Wheatland to Musselshell counties) where mid levels will be a bit cooler and instability a bit greater (near 1000 j/kg).
332 PM CDT Thu Jun 3 2021 The upper level ridge responsible for the increase in temperatures today will continue to remain the main player in our weather pattern during this forecast period.
Otherwise, temps will drop to the lower 70s. Ridge axis stretching from Bermuda towards the local area will maintain generally south to southeast winds through the weekend. Shower and thunderstorm chances remaining likely, with the highest coverage occurring during the afternoon.
415 PM EDT Thu Jun 3 2021 WV imagery and RAP analysis indicated a mid/upper level ridge from the southwest CONUS to Saskatchewan and a trough into the central Great Lakes resulting in northwest flow toward Upper Michigan. Lingering low level moisture along with clearing and temps dropping into the low to mid 50s will result in potential for patchy fog development. Friday, as the mid level ridge builds into the region with increasing southwest low level WAA (850 temp to around 18C) temps will climb into the mid and upper 80s. SSW winds at or below 10 mph will be weak enough to lake breeze development off of Lake Superior with some cooler air near the shore. A fairly broad ridge over the plain states, will continue to move toward the upper Great Lakes region during the weekend.
Weak surface pressure field over the majority of the High Plains will again allow only for light winds, and with abundant sunshine through the day, afternoon highs will reach the mid 80s. The only change in the weather Friday will be a slightly tighter surface pressure gradient owing to a lee cyclone deepening in the northern plains, and this will foster southerly winds in the 10-15 mph range. Dry, tranquil weather will continue through the weekend as an upper level ridge out west dampens and a weak cut-off low spins over central TX.
Temperatures will remain on the warmer side for the night. Friday and Friday night the upper ridge to the west will start to build into the area.
312 PM EDT Thu Jun 3 2021 Current sfc analysis places the cold front across western Kentucky, evident by NW winds on the Kentucky Mesonet. By this evening, precip should begin to taper off as the sfc front pushes east, but the upper trough axis should still be located across the Ohio Valley through the short term. Friday morning lows are forecast to drop into the upper 50s across the region, slightly cooler than climo. Temperatures will climb into the low to mid 80s under with light west winds.
Mid-level trough over the lower Ohio Valley early this afternoon will continue to move slowly to the northeast. Showers and scattered thunderstorms will gradually taper off from west to east tonight, as the mid level trough will move east of the area and towards eastern New York and western New England. The passing of the mid-level trough will combine with a possible lake breeze boundary though to present the chance for more showers or isolated thunderstorms across the Souther Tier and Finger Lakes region. Heights will increase Friday night as an expansive upper level ridge will move across the region. A westerly flow in the lower levels will bring the arrival of warmer air for the weekend.
High pressure will build from the southwest on Friday night and persist across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys through the weekend. Ahead of this trough, moisture advection and the left exit region of the upper jet has allowed for showers to persist across the region. As the trough slides east overnight with the upper level trough axis, conditions should dry across the region and have a dry forecast after midnight. Lows will remain elevated in the lower 60s. The area will remain under the influence of a ridge this weekend, which will lead to increasing temperatures and dew points as return flow from the Gulf of Mexico develops.
134 PM CDT Thu Jun 3 2021 A few lingering showers over the eastern Ozarks were ongoing this afternoon underneath an exiting upper level trough of low pressure. This will create mainly sunny conditions on Friday with highs in the low 80s. Mostly dry weather is expected as afternoon highs warm into the low to mid 80s.
352 PM EDT Thu Jun 3 2021 Strong to severe thunderstorms remain possible this afternoon and evening over the Lower Susquehanna Valley. FFG over the far SErn part of York Co and SErn half of Lanc Co are much lower than the rest of the lower Susq. Low pressure center to our north will also slide eastward and drag a weak trough/cold front in from the west late tonight. Cold front/trough will be just into the western zones around sunrise. Will keep the highest PoPs in the SE where they'll have more time to cook.
Weak surface pressure field over the majority of the High Plains will again allow only for light winds, and with abundant sunshine through the day, afternoon highs will reach the mid 80s. The only change in the weather Friday will be a slightly tighter surface pressure gradient owing to a lee cyclone deepening in the northern plains, and this will foster southerly winds in the 10-15 mph range.
154 PM CDT Thu Jun 3 2021 154 PM CDT Copy, paste, and repeat! It's another warm early-summer day with current temperatures in the lower 80s, a westerly breezy, and mostly sunny skies. Overnight lows will fall into the low to mid 60s. Friday will be similar to today though with highs a few degrees warmer and in the upper 80s to around 90. A large ridge will build from the Plains into the Great Lakes region this weekend allowing for dry weather and slowly increasing temperatures.
This evening through Friday night Strong ridging continues over most of the western CONUS today. The ridge will flatten somewhat on Friday, but 700mb temperatures will generally peak Friday afternoon in the 16C to 18C range as this occurs; Friday will be the hottest day of the year thus far with likely widespread broken or near-broken high temperature records. With the flattening ridge and weak instability, isolated convection does look more likely Friday, mainly across the north.
1223 PM CDT Thu Jun 3 2021 One more day of scattered showers and thunderstorms is on the docket for this afternoon and tonight with warmer weather also becoming more prominent. An amplified upper tropospheric pattern is currently in place over the CONUS with longwave ridging centered over the inter- mountain west and the corresponding downstream trough axis cutting through the central Great Lakes to Mid-Mississippi River Valley. Expanded PoPs over the previous forecast given the latest CAM trends, but overall the spatio-temporal coverage of the precipitation will be on the lower side. Highs today creep into the low to mid-80s owing to increasing lower tropospheric WAA off the High Plains. The northern stream jet shifts north of the forecast area Friday morning as the main longwave ridge builds eastward.
GOES16 satellite derived precipitable water reveals a ribbon of deep tropical moisture along the western periphery of the high pressure centered over the Atlantic. Again on Friday, E to SE flow around the ridge will favor coverage over the eastern portions of South Florida during the overnight and early morning hours and then refocusing over the inland areas and Gulf coast in the afternoon and evening hours as diurnal heating and sea breeze development. High pressure will remain over the Western Atlantic waters keeping an easterly wind flow over South Florida this weekend.
Latest WV imagery depicts a robust upper high centered over NV with attendant ridge axis extending over WY and MT. Surface temperatures were rising into the upper 70s to near 80, with dew points in the low to mid 50s. Going into tomorrow, the weak area of low pressure over West Texas will strengthen some while it meanders from near KABI to KSJT. Thus, fair weather cumulus with highs in the low 80s will be common.
Through Friday, the forecast area will remain sandwiched between deeper moisture and a summertime convective pattern to the east, and an upper trough (along with a little forcing) stretching NE-SW to the west of the area.
229 PM CDT Thu Jun 3 2021 Westerly flow continues at the surface around the north side of high pressure located in northeast Oklahoma. The lowest dewpoints in the north, were the flow is strongest and the soils, the driest. The upper pattern in the extended will shift from a dry ridge and zonal hot flow aloft, to one featuring a hot and humid airmass under a broad, but weak upper low.
1210 PM CDT Thu Jun 3 2021 To start out the morning, an upper-level trough axis is also bisecting the CWA with weak DCVA downstream in the presence of around 750 J/kg of MUCAPE. This cluster should slowly propagate eastward through sunrise, but isolated to scattered showers will remain possible in these areas into afternoon before the upper-level trough finally clears the CWA and large-scale subsidence via mid-level height rises begins to dominate the entire region. Large-scale subsidence will persist through Friday as the upper- level trough continues to depart and upper-level ridging occurs across much of the north-central CONUS favoring dry conditions and mostly clear skies. As a broad low-level ridge also shifts east of the Midwest, low-level flow will back to the southwest, marking the onset of weak WAA into the region.
With high pressure set off to the east-southeast of the region, there is a light west-southwest flow currently and will persist thru the day. An upper level ridge over the western CONUS will expand across the Plains today and remain the dominant pattern through the weekend. Closer to the surface, a lee trough is expected to set up along the Front Range today and become stationary over the short term period.
With high pressure east-southeast of the area, surface gradient remains light. Strong upper level ridge over the Rockies will push slowly eastward into the Plains region. At the surface, the ridge east remains in place with a lee-side trough developing over the eastern Rockies.
This line of storms is associated with a weak cold front that will slowly progress through north Georgia today as the upper trough pushes eastward across the Mid Mississippi Valley.
SR Chattanooga Airport, TN 63 85 63 89 66 / 50 10 0 10 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 64 82 61 87 64 / 60 20 10 10 10 Oak Ridge, TN 61 82 60 87 63 / 60 20 10 10 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 61 79 57 85 60 / 60 30 10 10 0.
The supporting mid-level trough's slow progression eastward, and column's generally light winds are lending to generally slow storm motion. Showers will diminish while tapering off from west to east late today/early this evening as the supporting trough's axis finally crosses the region. Generally subtle gradients surrounding the switch from weak trough to flat ridge will promote a continuation of light northwesterly winds overnight which will advect slightly drier and seasonably cool air into Indiana. A weak vort riding along the top of the slowly- building ridge may shake out a few sprinkles, or even a stray convective shower Friday afternoon across the northeast zones.
It'll be hard to rule out another rogue updraft or two mainly across southeast KS but with a lack of focus and an increasing influence of the mid/upper ridge, a dry forecast was maintained. a slow moving mid/upper trough over the Southern Plains is progged to lift northward towards the Central Plains over the weekend.
Mid-level trough over the lower Ohio Valley late this afternoon will continue to move slowly to the northeast. Showers and scattered thunderstorms will gradually taper off from west to east tonight, as the mid level trough will move east of the area and towards eastern New York and western New England. The passing of the mid-level trough will combine with a possible lake breeze boundary though to present the chance for more showers or isolated thunderstorms across the Souther Tier and Finger Lakes region.
Midlevel heights aloft show just a bit of ridging despite the aforementioned low, and the area should remain mostly dry tonight and tomorrow.
Limited instability will preclude a serious severe threat although showers and storms will be fairly numerous with the crossing of the low this eve. A decrease in shower coverage is expected overnight as the low ejects.
1121 AM MDT Thu Jun 3 2021 Current surface analysis shows low pressure north of the region, with weak high pressure to the west. Upper level analysis shows positively tilted ridge axis over the Great Basin into western portions of the northern Rockies. The warming trend will continue late this week into the early part of the weekend as the ridge slowly moves east across the Rockies and eventually into the Great Plains, gradually flattening out with time.
The storms die off after sunset as the upper level trough moves east and weak riding builds.
Temperatures will begin to cool Friday to around seasonal normals as a broad area of low pressure moves into the Pacific Northwest late Friday into the weekend.
235 PM CDT Thu Jun 3 2021 The upper level trough that brought us the mid-week clouds and precipitation chances is finally pushing east of the region. Given very weak shear, fairly limited instability, and mid/upper level height rises on the back side of the departing trough, these storms should remain weak and short lived, ending around or before sunset. BSH As we move toward the weekend, broad upper level ridging will build eastward into the north-central portion of the country.
Upper flow has become more north to northeasterly with the upper ridge over the western US building slightly eastward and with an upper low being positioned just to our south/southeast. The best chance for precip tomorrow afternoon will be across the far southeastern Rolling Plains closer to the upper low. Otherwise tomorrow will be partly cloudy with highs reaching into the low/mid 80s.
Although a few degrees cooler on Friday, temperatures are still expected to reach the upper 80s to near 90.
The sites nearest the higher terrain are most likely to get any thunderstorms. Similar to the last few days, the best opportunity for storms looks to be west of the Pecos River and particularly across the higher terrain this afternoon, with potential for eastward development as storms congeal into multicell clusters and/or outflow boundaries generate additional convection into this evening.