Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
RH progs and 00z SGF sounding both showed very dry air above the boundary layer and should see this fog dissipate rather quickly after sunrise this morning, even with the lower sun angle this time of year. Normal highs for this time of year are in the mid 60s with lows in the low to mid 40s. Highs this week will be in the low to mid 70s with lows in the upper 40s to mid 50s. Flow will become more amplified through the middle of the upcoming work week as a large scale trough develops out west with ridging axis to our east and we will be on the eastern fringes of upper level southwesterly flow.
319 PM CST SUN NOV 1 2015 THE MOST IMPRESSIVE OBSERVATIONS ARE THE TEMPERATURES ACROSS IA THIS AFTERNOON ON AND SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT. BUT THE LOW-LEVEL AIR IS QUITE DRY. WARM ADVECTION WILL BE INCREASING AND THE WARM FRONT NOW OVER DES MOINES WILL SHIFT TO ABOUT I-90 BY AFTERNOON. HAVE RAISED TEMPERATURES IN NERN IA AND SWRN WI INTO THE LOW 70S.
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE TRENDS THIS MORNING PLACE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR CENTRAL TEXAS WITH A WARM CONVEYOR BELT OF MOISTURE STRETCHING UP INTO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA. MODELS DO INDICATE A BIT OF A GRADIENT DEVELOPING EARLY THIS MORNING BETWEEN WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER MISSOURI AND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF SO WE COULD SEE SOME IMPROVEMENTS IN VISIBILITIES AFTER SUNRISE THOUGH NOT ENTIRELY CONFIDENT IN THIS. LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LOW APPROACHES. THE CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL BECOME AN OPEN TROUGH AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY WITH RAIN CHANCES CONTINUING. CLEARING EXPECTED BY MONDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN SECTIONS WITH TEMPS CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER 70S AS THE TROUGH EXITS THE REGION.
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THE HIGH WIND WARNING IS EXTENDED A FEW HOURS INTO THIS AFTERNOON BASED ON THE NEW HRRR AND SHORT TERM CONSENSUS MODELS. IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS WITH TEMPS AROUND 60 WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. MODELS ALL SHOW THE PACIFIC COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTHWARD INTO NW WYOMING BY TONIGHT AND THEN STALLING ACROSS WESTERN WYOMING AS THE FIRST UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. WITH SURFACE WIND SHIFTING INTO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS.
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA INTO MONDAY. CLEARING SKIES AND DRIER AIR OVER THE REGION WILL LEAD TO COOLER TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST MONDAY NIGHT WITH A RETURN TO ONSHORE FLOW.
1250 PM EST SUN NOV 1 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY DRY AND WARM WEATHER FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK. DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH DECREASING CLOUD COVERAGE AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD BACK IN OVER THE REGION. AND LACK OF A THE BOUNDARY ALREADY WELL MIXED AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS STILL IN THE LOW 50S. HIGH PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO BUILD AND PERSIST ACROSS THE NE CONUS THROUGH MID WEEK BRINGING MAINLY DRY AND WARM WEATHER.
230 PM MST SUN NOV 1 2015 HIGH PRESSURE HAS BUILT INTO THE REGION THIS WEEKEND RESULTING CLEAR SKIES AND A RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
HIGH PRESSURE HAS BUILT INTO THE REGION THIS WEEKEND RESULTING CLEAR SKIES AND A RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM THE LOW BACK INTO THE DAKOTAS. QUIET AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN TODAY AND TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE MIDWEST. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE CENTRAL US WILL SUPPORT UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER WITH 850 MB TEMPS PROGGED IN THE MID TEENS CELSIUS DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. THIS SYSTEM HELPS BUILD THE CENTRAL US RIDGE WHILE PART OF THE IT DIGS INTO THE SOUTHWEST US AND ANOTHER PART ZIPS ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER REMAINING TO OUR NORTH.
1128 AM CST SUN NOV 1 2015 H5 ANALYSIS FROM EARLIER THIS EVENING HAS A CLOSED LOW OFF THE COAST OF BRITISH COLUMBIA WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SWD TO OFF THE COAST OF OREGON AND WASHINGTON STATE. DOWNSTREAM OF THE TROUGH. LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING EXTENDED FROM THE NRN ROCKIES INTO NORTHERN ALBERTA AND SASKATCHEWAN. A LOW AND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WAS PRESENT OVER TEXAS WITH A SECOND TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE ARROWHEAD OF MINNESOTA SWD INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER SWRN SASKATCHEWAN WITH A LEE SIDE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING SWD INTO EASTERN MONTANA. WITH READINGS IN THE 70S AND FORECAST DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S THIS AFTERNOON. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS DIGGING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CONUS WITH RIDGING FROM THE PLAINS TO THE EAST COAST.
IF NOT THE MOST IMPRESSIVE LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGH I HAVE EVER SEEN AT SUCH A LOW LATITUDE. THIS COMPLEX SHOULD BEGIN TO TURN NORTHEAST AROUND THE 500MB TROUGH DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS AS IT TRACKS INTO SOUTHERN LOUISIANA.
1124 PM CST MON FEB 22 2016 A PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. IT WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER TUESDAY AS WELL. WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S.
426 AM EST TUE FEB 23 2016 HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE REGION WILL MOVE EAST TODAY AND PERMIT LOW PRESSURE TO TRACK TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY FROM THE SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
319 AM CST TUE FEB 23 2016 SCATTERED SHOWERS ONGOING AT FORECAST ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF MIDDLE TN DUE TO THE INVERTED TROUGH TO OUR SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING. AS THE WARM FRONT IS PULLED THROUGH THE STATE DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE DYNAMICS OF THIS SYSTEM ALONE ESPECIALLY AS WE GET PAST MIDNIGHT AND THE UPPER LOW GETS CLOSER TO THE AREA.
1028 PM CST MON FEB 22 2016 ALL IS QUIET THIS EVENING AS OUR COLD FRONT REMAINS STATIONARY OVER SE TX/SCNTRL LA THIS EVENING. THE 00Z GFS/NAM SHORT TERM PROGS REMAIN CONSISTENT FROM EARLIER RUNS WITH THE SVR RISK MAINLY FROM LOWER TOLEDO BEND COUNTRY NE ACROSS THE SE SECTIONS OF NCNTRL LA WHERE THE WARM FRONT LOOKS TO LIFT N BY EARLY AFTERNOON. COINCIDENT WITH AN INTENSIFYING 60-70KT NRLY H850 JET ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW OVER SE OK/E TX/WRN AR/WRN LA.
302 AM CST TUE FEB 23 2016 UPPER MIDWEST UNDER WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER LAKE MICHIGAN WITH LIGHT WINDS TENDING FROM THE EAST OVER THE FORECAST AREA AT 2 AM CST. MOSTLY CLOUDY OVERALL WITH MOST OF THE LOWER CLOUDS SHOULD STAY NORTH OF I-80 CORRIDOR. LIGHT EAST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KTS TO COMBINE WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S NORTH TO THE UPPER 40S SOUTH FOR ANOTHER SEASONABLY COMFORTABLE DAY FOR LATE FEBRUARY.
LLWS IS A POSSIBILITY THAT MAY NEED TO BE INCLUDED IN FUTURE UPDATES TUESDAY NIGHT AS SFC WINDS INCREASE WITH THE APPROACH OF A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT.
A JET MAX MOVING INTO TEXAS WILL HELP TO DEEPEN THIS LOW AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
409 AM EST TUE FEB 23 2016 HIGH PRESSURE IS LOCATED OVER MAINE WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING SOUTHWEST TO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.
More stubborn cloud cover aloft and north to northeast winds should keep highs a bit cooler than Monday.
/ISSUED / 00Z KTBW RAOB REVEALS THE ATMOSPHERE IS STARTING TO MOISTEN IN THE LOW LEVELS AS A WARM FRONT IS LIFTING ACROSS THE AREA. THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY ACROSS THE AREA WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S.
) THE REASON FOR THE FURTHER LOWERING IS THAT LATEST SOUNDING PROGS DEPICT THE LOWEST 8,000-10,000FT OF THE AIRMASS ACROSS MOST OF SOUTH-CENTRAL & SOUTHEAST KS REMAINING QUITE DRY THRU DAYBREAK. TONIGHT: THE REASON FOR THE UPDATE WAS TO LOWER/DELAY ARRIVAL TIMES OF LIGHT RAIN TO FAR SOUTH-CENTRAL & SOUTHEAST KS AS AIRMASS REMAINS QUITE DRY IN THE LOWEST ~10,000FT.
352 AM CST TUE FEB 23 2016 UPPER LEVEL LOW DIGGING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH RIDGE AMPLIFYING ACROSS THE WEST. NORTHWEST FLOW IS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS DRIFTING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH NORTHWEST WINDS ON THE INCREASE.
THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS WAS INDICATING A RIDGE AXIS FROM THE NORTHEASTERN GRT LKS. A SFC TROF AND LEE-SIDE RETURN FLOW UP THE WESTERN PLAINS. LOCAL CLOUD EROSION/THINNING ALLOWING THE DVN CWA TO WARM UP INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S ACRS MUCH OF THE AREA. WITH THIN CLOUDS OR CLEAR PATCHES EXPECTED FOR AT LEAST SOME PERIODS OF THE NIGHT/ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS UNDER LINGERING RIDGE AXIS/. WILL ERROR OVERNIGHT ON THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE LOWS. WHICH WILL LIKELY CREATE A TIGHT STRONG CYCLONE IN THE DEEP SOUTHERN STATES. WITH INITIAL ZONAL FLOW RATHER THAN RIDGING ALOFT EAST OF THAT FEATURE. YOU CAN'T COMPLETELY RULE OUT A SNOW SHOWER ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF THIS LOW.
HAVE KEPT A MENTION FOR SOME MOUNTAIN SHOWERS AS MOISTURE IS LIFTED OVER THE OROGRAPHY BUT DO NOT EXPECT ANY PRECIPITATION IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.
400 AM EST TUE FEB 23 2016 HIGH PRESSURE IS LOCATED OVER MAINE. LOW PRESSURE IS DEVELOPING OVER THE GULF STATES.
327 AM EST TUE FEB 23 2016 STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL SPREAD RAIN OVER THE UPPER OHIO REGION FOR MIDWEEK. AND HIGH LVL MSTR OVR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE CONCERN FOR THE MRNG IS OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR FREEZING DRIZZLE AS DYNAMIC COOLING RESULTING FM UPSLOPE FLOW MAINTAINS TEMPS AT. OR JUST BELOW FREEZING DESPITE OVRALL WARM ADVCTN. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR ALTHOUGH THE OTHER OBS AROUND THE COUNTY ARE WARMER. WL ENSURE A DRY AND WARM DAY OUTSIDE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE AREAS. JET CORE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE INTERMTN WEST WILL DEEPEN THE MS VALLEY LOW.
1249 AM EST TUE FEB 23 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND THEN MOVE EAST ON TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER BY MID WEEK. LARGE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON TUESDAY.
254 AM MST TUE FEB 23 2016 TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER TODAY WITH HIGHS ON THE LOWER DESERTS IN THE 70S.
Scattered areas of light rain starting to spread into Eastern Oklahoma late this evening and precip will continue to increase in coverage overnight into Tuesday morning as upper low approach from the west.
HAVE KEPT A MENTION FOR SOME MOUNTAIN SHOWERS AS MOISTURE IS LIFTED OVER THE OROGRAPHY BUT DO NOT EXPECT ANY PRECIPITATION IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE PACIFIC COAST STATES WILL CONTINUE A MOSTLY DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, ALLOWING LINGERING MID LEVEL CLOUDS OVER THE MOUNTAINS TO DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT. AHEAD OF A DISTURBANCE ALOFT AND ITS ASSOCIATED WEAK CANADIAN COLD FRONT, WESTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA, WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 KT POSSIBLE ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE ROCKIES.
A COLD FRONT LAGGING BEHIND THE SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE MORNING WITH INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN UP ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA TONIGHT AS A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY.
High pressure at the surface will keep the region dry through this morning.
WITH THE LOSS OF SOLAR HEATING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SHOWERS ARE COMING TO AN END WITH CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT ALONG WITH BELOW FREEZING MINIMUM TEMPERATURES. HIGH PRESSURE IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC IS BEGINNING TO NUDGE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT MOST TAF SITES WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION KEEPING SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS LIGHT.
STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHEAST TO NORTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP BY EARLY TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER EAST TEXAS. ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE HIGH GROUND TEMPERATURES.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL RETURN TO THE WEST COAST STATES TUESDAY. AN EMBEDDED UPPER JET STRETCHES ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN LEAVING MUCH OF UTAH WITHIN THE COOLER.
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON IN THAT LOCATION SHOULD BE IN THE MID 30S SO A FREEZING MIST THREAT WILL NOT HAPPEN. TRENDED TOWARD THE COOLER GUIDANCE READINGS ANTICIPATING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
SOUTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 5 TO 15 KNOTS WILL BACK AROUND TO THE NORTH AND INCREASE TO AROUND 15 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT BETWEEN 10Z AND 14Z TUESDAY.
246 AM CST TUE FEB 23 2016 LIGHT PRECIP SETTING UP ABOUT AS EXPECTED IN A GENERAL NW-SE ORIENTATION FROM NERN NEW MEXICO TO THE ROLLING PLAINS AS THE RESPONSIBLE UPPER TROUGH/LOW IS GETTING ITS ACT TOGETHER ALONG THAT SAME ORIENTATION. BY 15Z THE 700 MB LOW WILL BE APPROACHING DFW WITH THE AXIS OF THE 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE ROLLING PLAINS. BY 18Z THE THE 500 MB TROUGH WILL HAVE CLOSED AND MOVED INTO NW TEXAS EFFECTIVELY PUTTING AN END TO ANY MEANINGFUL PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS THE FCST AREA. HOWEVER GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF THE CYCLOGENESIS TO OUR EAST WILL RUN TOWARD THE HIGHER END WITH A PERIOD OF 25-30 MPH.
DRY CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON.
THIS ACTIVITY HAS SPREAD INTO THE LOWER KEYS DELIVERING ROUNDS OF RAIN. DUE TO AN ATLANTIC RIDGE EAST OF FLORIDA. FORECAST - THE SWATH OF RAIN IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TODAY AS THE LOW LEVEL PERTURBATION MOVES OUT OF THE AREA AND LOW LEVEL LIFTING WEAKENS. FOR NOW HAVE SPLIT THE ZONES TO ADVERTISE HIGHER POPS FOR THE LOWER KEYS.
POOR FLIGHT RULES WILL PREVAIL AT TERMINALS INTO THE EARLY/MID MORNING UNTIL AN UPPER LVL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED STRONG FRONT PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE REGION.
126 AM EST TUE FEB 23 2016 A COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVING SOUTHWARD WILL STALL NEAR THE SOUTH PART OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT.
Along the southern pressure gradient between that ridge and the low over the southern plains. As this ridge moves east the winds will come around from the east. With strong low pressure forming over the southern plains and Gulf Coast region on Monday night and Tuesday winds will generally be out of the northeast across the forecast area. The exception to the dry forecast will be the far southern counties where light rain and perhaps some light rain/snow mix on Tuesday and Tuesday night could form north of the closed low. A cold front will push through the area behind the departing storm system and should cause temperatures to drop, but only a few degrees, and likely not much below seasonal normals.
910 PM PST MON FEB 22 2016 High pressure will deliver dry conditions through the rest of the work week.
High pressure will dominate the weather pattern this week with warm dry weather.
CONFIDENCE IN TEMPS AND PRECIP FOR THE SUN TIME FRAME IS RUNNING ON THE LOW SIDE. LAWSON THE PRIMARY (IF NOT SOLE) CONCERN IS THAT WINDS THAT'LL BE E-NE UP TO 10 KTS THE REST OF THE NGT WL INCREASE CONSIDERABLY TUE MRNG AS AS A SFC CYCLONE GREATLY INTENSIFIES IT MOVES E ACRS THE TX/LA BDR TUE AFTN.
917 PM PST MON FEB 22 2016 High pressure will deliver dry conditions through the rest of the work week.
1215 AM EST TUE FEB 23 2016 STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL SPREAD RAIN OVER THE UPPER OHIO REGION FOR MIDWEEK. AND HIGH LVL MSTR OVR THE RIDGES OF GARRETT AND ERN TUCKER COUNTY. THE CONCERN FOR THE MRNG IS OF FREEZING LIGHT RAIN OR FREEZING DRIZZLE AS DYNAMIC COOLING RESULTING FM UPSLOPE FLOW MAINTAINS TEMPS AT. OR JUST BELOW FREEZING. WL ENSURE A DRY AND WARM DAY OUTSIDE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE AREAS. JET CORE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE INTERMTN WEST WILL DEEPEN THE MS VALLEY LOW.
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH NEVADA ON MONDAY.
1127 PM CST SAT NOV 7 2015 FOR 06Z TAFS /ISSUED 919 PM CST SAT NOV 7 2015/ AFTER A WARMER PERIOD FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. A RETURN OF COLDER CONDITIONS HAS FILTERED INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT PASSAGE LAST NIGHT.
DID RAISE HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST WHICH TRENDED TOWARD THE WARMER MAV GUIDANCE.
443 AM EST SUN NOV 8 2015 THE REGION WILL EXPERIENCE DRY AND COOL WEATHER AGAIN TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE TRAVELS EAST ACROSS THE AREA.
420 AM EST SUN NOV 8 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING THE AREA MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THROUGH MONDAY.
1151 PM CST SAT NOV 7 2015 QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES IN THE SHORT TERM AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY. FOLLOWED BY A WEAK TROUGH ON MONDAY. HIGHS SUNDAY SHOULD REACH THE LOWER 60S WITH BRISK SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASING TO 15 TO 30 MPH WITH CONTINUED SUNNY SKIES. THERE IS NO MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY. THUS SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS AND HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S WITH BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS.
121 AM EST SUN NOV 8 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE STATE THROUGH MONDAY BRINGING FAIR WEATHER.
135 AM EST SUN NOV 8 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE STATE THROUGH MONDAY BRINGING FAIR WEATHER.
312 AM CST SUN NOV 8 2015 EXPANDED THE FROST ADVISORY SOUTH THIS MORNING AS TEMPERATURES ARE APPROACHING FREEZING IN WEST CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA PER MESONET DATA. AS AN ELONGATED MID-LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS A CLOSED CIRCULATION AND MOVES NORTHEAST. SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE ON MONDAY IN RESPONSE TO A LEE TROUGH AND A DEVELOPING WESTERN SYSTEM.
1148 PM CST SAT NOV 7 2015 GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED TONIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH SURFACE RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE AREA. IT MAY ALSO THIN AS IT MOVES EAST AS THE UPPER LEVEL RH PROGS ARE KIND OF WEAK AND THE HIGHER VALUES REMAIN MAINLY IN CANADA. A GOOD 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY. THE PRIMARY CONCERN DURING THE EXTENDED PERIODS IS THE LARGE AND RATHER INTENSE UPPER TROF THAT IS FORECASTED TO EJECT FROM NEBRASKA TO LAKE SUPERIOR DURING THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK.
High pressure will dominate our weather regime Sunday. Have maintained lows in the low/mid 30s, though given increasing southerly winds across the western half of the region, it's possible that lows will be experienced by midnight, with temperatures holding steady or rising a degree or two heading toward daybreak Monday.
1251 AM EST SUN NOV 8 2015 DRY AND COOL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE TRAVELS EAST ACROSS THE AREA.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH IN BEHIND THE FRONT. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THE RAIN CHANCES BY MONDAY. THE MAIN COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION. SHORT WAVE RIDGING WILL EVOLVE OVER THE CAROLINAS AS A CLOSED MID LEVEL TROUGH DRIFTS EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. BUT FARTHER NORTH EXPECT DRY WEATHER WITH PC SKIES AS THE AIRMASS QUICKLY DRIES OUT NORTHWARD UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. THE COOLER AIRMASS CURRENTLY OUT OVER THE MIDWEST AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL BUILD INTO OUR AREA. THE CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN WILL INCREASE ON MONDAY AS MID-LEVEL ENERGY AND IT'S ASSOC SFC COASTAL TROUGH LIFTS NE ACROSS THE COASTAL CAROLINAS.
THERE IS SOME RISK OF SEEING SOME FOG TOWARD SUNRISE MAINLY KPVW/KLBB /ASSUMING THE LOW CLOUDS DO NOT INTERFERE/ THOUGH THE RISK IS ABOUT 20PCT. WINDS WERE A LITTLE TO HIGH TO ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO BOTTOM OUT THIS MORNING WITH NO LOCATION SUB- FREEZING. CONFIDENCE IS MUCH HIGHER IN WINDS BECOMING LIGHT TONIGHT DUE TO STRONGER SURFACE RIDGING SPREADING INTO THE REGION.
While some areas will likely see temperatures slightly below freezing. does not look like a widespread hard freeze with temperatures only dipping below freezing briefly.
Highs on Sunday will be in the low to mid 60s and will be mild mixed with the expected low and mid clouds.
335 AM CST SUN NOV 8 2015 WEATHER WILL BE UNEVENTFUL TODAY WITH LITTLE MOISTURE OR FORCING AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN PLACE. AN OVERALL QUIET LATE AUTUMN WEATHER PATTERN WITH ROUGHLY NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE INTERRUPTED AND PUNCTUATED BY A SEASONALLY STRONG LOW PRESSURE CENTER MOVING ACROSS THE REGION AROUND MIDWEEK. PROGNOSTIC MODELS CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY CONVERGE ON SOLUTIONS FOR THE TRACK/TIMING OF THE LOW AND CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN A GENERAL EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM AND ITS SENSIBLE EFFECTS FOR OUR FORECAST AREA.
1057 PM CST SAT NOV 7 2015 Short term (Tonight - Monday night): The main concern in the short term will be the potential for freezing temperatures Sunday and Monday morning. This ridge will remain over the area tonight allowing for good radiational cooling conditions. Lows will fall into the low to mid 30 with the exceptions of the urban core which will remain in the upper 30s to near 40. Expect lows by Monday morning to fall into the low to mid 30s. The upper level closed low will slowly move northeast through the CWA on Monday.
1147 PM EST SAT NOV 7 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL SUPPORT CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT SW WINDS AROUND 4 KTS THROUGH TONIGHT.
THE PRECIP WILL MOVE INTO SE OREGON AND PORTIONS OF SW IDAHO /NORTH OF THE LOWER TREASURE VALLEY/ ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. WITH NEAR NORMAL /COOLER/ TEMPERATURES IN SE OREGON DUE TO THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. THIS IS DUE TO AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND ITS FOLLOWING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MILDER BUT STILL BELOW FREEZING EXCEPT IN THE CALDWELL TO BOISE URBAN AREAS. WITH A CHANCE OF PRECIP OVER OREGON BY EARLY SUNDAY THERE IS A SMALL THREAT OF FREEZING RAIN. AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THE FRONT DROPS SNOW LEVELS TO 3500-5000 FT LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND THE UPPER TROUGH KEEPS THEM IN THAT RANGE MONDAY. WITH THE UPPER TROUGH OVERHEAD. THIS TROUGH WILL ALSO BRING W TO NW WINDS 10-20 MPH ACROSS EXPOSED AREAS MONDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY, LOOK DRY, AND SEASONABLE, AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. LOW-LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW, ALONG WITH THE PASSAGE OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH, WILL KEEP PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN PLACE OVERNIGHT. GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IS FORESEEN ON SUNDAY, AS RIDGING, BOTH SURFACE AND ALOFT, BUILD TOWARDS NY AND PA FROM THE MIDWEST.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE CASCADES TONIGHT. AND AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING COOL SHOWERY WEATHER TO WESTERN WASHINGTON SUNDAY. SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF MONDAY AS THE TROUGH MOVES EAST.
Cold front nearing the N Coast with showers ahead of it extending inland just NW of our CWA. QPFs will generally be ligher with accumulations/amounts more problematic as the moisture plume sags well Swd with the digging trof adn lowering 5H heights. Thunder chances tied to intial wave moving in with the trof from the 06z-12z Mon time frame. Snowfall amounts look to be between 3 to 6 inches below pass levels down to around 5000 feet with to up to 10 inches over the higher elevations.
1220 AM EST SUN NOV 8 2015 COOL HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CHARGE TODAY.
WEAK FRONT MOVING INTO NORTH FLORIDA EARLY THIS MORNING IS EXPECTED TO STALL AND MOVE LITTLE TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NRN GULF MOVES SLOWLY E/NE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. EXCEPT ACROSS NRN LAKE/VOLUSIA COUNTIES WHERE GREATER CLOUD COVER MAY LIMIT HIGHS TO THE LOW 80S. THIS CONTINUATION OF WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPS WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO KEEP MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH LOWS IN THE LOW 70S.
AN INVERTED SFC TROF MAY MOVE WESTWARD BRINGING CLOUDS AND A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FOR NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND AREAS OF WEST TENNESSEE NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
THE LIFT ENDS BY MIDDAY AS WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGING TAKES HOLD. WELL BELOW (TODAY) TO BELOW (MONDAY) NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED DUE TO COOL SURFACE RIDGING.
235 AM CST SUN NOV 8 2015 THE ONCE POSITIVELY-TILTED UA TROUGH HAS SHEARED OFF INTO TWO PIECES. TEMPS FALLING TO/SLIGHTLY BELOW THE FREEZING MARK LATER THIS MORNING. THE AFOREMENTIONED LINGERING UA TROUGH IS PROGGED TO DEEPEN JUST A BIT AS IT COMMENCES TO SHIFT NE WITH TIME. AND SFC LEE TROUGHING WILL RESPOND IN KIND PROMOTING WINDS TO VEER TO THE S- SE AND BECOME SLIGHTLY BREEZY. LIGHT WINDS ARE ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED AND SFC RIDGING WILL ALSO BE IN PLACE. SO WILL EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS TO RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS THE FAR SW TX PANHANDLE /MUCH LESS CLOUD COVER THERE/ TO THE LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS THE FAR ERN SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH IN BEHIND THE FRONT. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THE RAIN CHANCES BY MONDAY. THE MAIN COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION. SHORT WAVE RIDGING WILL EVOLVE OVER THE CAROLINAS AS A CLOSED MID LEVEL TROUGH DRIFTS EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. BUT FARTHER NORTH EXPECT DRY WEATHER WITH PC SKIES AS THE AIRMASS QUICKLY DRIES OUT NORTHWARD UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. THE COOLER AIRMASS CURRENTLY OUT OVER THE MIDWEST AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL BUILD INTO OUR AREA.