Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
High pressure will slide eastward and through the Ohio Valley tonight and tomorrow, with surface winds becoming more easterly by Friday afternoon.
Weak high pressure will affect the area on Thursday. High temperatures will be in the lower 80s. Varying amounts of clouds to also rotate into area tonight, then dissipating during day tomorrow as high pressure affects area.
JW 06z TAFS: Overnight into Thursday morning a weak low pressure system will track from NW Washington through Moses Lake and then Pullman/Lewiston.
Upper level Low pressure will continue to dominate the weather pattern across much of the US, as High pressure remains situated over the southwest US. This will bring a trough like pattern across the midsection of the CONUS. However, a full-on trough will struggle to develop, but numerous vorticity maximums will develop along the NW to SE flow from the northern Plains through the Midwest. As the mini Low pressure systems push through the region, boundary location will play a major role in the exact track of each wave.
Although moisture will be scant across much of the area, high temperatures of mid 90s could mean areas across the SW (where dew points will be the highest) could reach convective temperatures and a storm or two could develop.
440 AM EDT Thu Aug 15 2019 A trough of low pressure will bring a few periods of unsettled weather to the region for the next several days. The mid atlantic will be in an interesting spot in the extended as a heat ridge rapidly intensifies across the southern plains.
1042 PM CDT Wed Aug 14 2019 Cyclonic flow continues to bring cooler and more moist air into the region. While the clearing is taking place high pressure at the surface will shift into northwest IA late tonight. Expect lows to range from the lower 50s in northwest IA to near 60 in central SD.
This deep moisture, enhanced by a series of weak waves rounding the mid level trough, will result in numerous thunderstorms today and Thursday.
At the surface, Arkansas will find itself under the influence of high pressure initially centered north of the area but will shift eastward with time.
347 AM EDT Thu Aug 15 2019 Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected today with crossing low pressure. Dry weather should return Friday night under weak surface ridging.
On-and-off chances of showers and thunder will continue through the short term period, with temperatures starting to trend warmer.
Through the day as the low moves east, high pressure over the MO Valley region will be building in, and the dry NW flow aloft will continue. This should give high temps similar to yesterday, mainly upper 80s to around 90, but with comfortable humidity levels as dewpoints will be in the low to mid 60s this afternoon.
Dry weather is expected overnight under weak mid level ridging. The low will struggle to deepen and mainly provide weak boundaries for forced ascent, creating the focus for aftn/eve showers and thunderstorms. There remains some uncertainty on the path of the low and ultimately the position of its weak frontal boundary, but the consensus seems to be generally along the I-80 corridor. Afternoon thunderstorms will favor areas closer to Lake Erie, where cooler temps and lower heights aloft will be less inhibitive to convective initiation. Ridging will build across the sern U. through the weekend with high pressure developing along the Appalachian Mountain front range.
Surface analysis this morning places a cold front from the Carolinas back through Central Georgia, Southern Alabama/Mississippi, then back into Northeast Texas. Meanwhile, a 1018 mb ridge of high pressure centered over Kansas and Missouri is resulting in clear to mostly clear skies across the Mid-south early this morning.
419 AM EDT Thu Aug 15 2019 High pressure will will be centered across the region before moving off to the Canadian Maritimes tonight.
High pressure filtering in from the Northern Plains will keep skies mostly clear and winds fairly light to calm overnight. Ridging aloft overspreads the Four Corners region as the Bermuda high builds in toward the Mid Atlantic late Thursday into Friday. Flow over the Mid South becomes more zonal between these two dominating ridges. The TN Valley will be left with temperatures in the low 90s and continuing clear skies.
152 AM EDT Thu Aug 15 2019 A trough of low pressure will interact with a wavy and nearly stationary surface frontal boundary over the state to bring several periods of unsettled weather to the region, that will last into the upcoming weekend. The guidance continues to show an upper level low over northern Canada remaining entrenched into the weekend.
High pressure continues to track from the Northern Plains into the Ohio Valley, bringing a welcome drier (relatively) airmass into the TN Valley. High pressure will slide eastward and through the Ohio Valley tonight and tomorrow, with surface winds becoming more easterly by Friday afternoon.
High pressure will continue over Arizona today with high temperatures 5 to 10 degrees above normal. High temperatures will drop over the weekend as high pressure weakens. High pressure over Arizona will slowly drift southward today and Friday in response to a trough of low pressure moving through the Northern Rockies into the Upper Great Plains.
Severe parameters are weaker with this round, before the subtropical ridge builds in for the weekend (probably) and helps turn the faucet off for this MCS-inducing environment that the region has seen lately.
808 AM EDT Thu Aug 15 2019 A trough of low pressure will bring a few periods of unsettled weather to the region for the next several days. The mid atlantic will be in an interesting spot in the extended as a heat ridge rapidly intensifies across the southern plains.
This highly mixed atmosphere will be inherently unstable which means any small amount of forcing could pop some convection. Persistence with the high temperature forecast the today and tomorrow along with a low temperatures following the cooler guidance. A low pressure system spinning north of the CONUS will push the tail end of an upper level jet north and east of the CWA Friday night, while a broad high pressure system continues to spin over northern Mexico.
Good WAA ahead of the trough will yield highs near 80F many locations.
Weak upper troughiness remains across the E CONUS. Drier air builds into the forecast area from the west on Friday as the upper trough axis dampens with PWATs dropping to around 1.
Southwestern CONUS ridge gets suppressed as Pacific energy streams across the Pacific Northwest for the next two days. A little cooler air seeps into northern and central Nevada Friday as a trough moves across the nrn tier states, bringing weak northwest flow into the region.
Patchy fog is possible Friday morning, primarily in areas that receive rain today; otherwise, the day is expected to start off dry ahead of an approaching trough. This trough will dive out of Canada, bringing cool easterly winds into northwest Montana, and especially throughout Glacier National Park, along with showers and the possibility of thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening.
At the surface, weak high pressure is located across eastern SD and Nebraska, with weak trof of low pressure over western ND and southeast MT.
A weak cold front will stall out along the MT/WY border today. Tonight weak ridging aloft turns low level winds a bit more southwesterly enhancing low level warm advection and pulling jet stream axis a bit further north. Cold front pushes through the area Friday night bringing a chance of showers and thunderstorms overnight.
749 AM EDT Thu Aug 15 2019 Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected today with crossing low pressure. Dry weather should return Friday night under weak surface ridging.
543 AM EDT Thu Aug 15 2019 Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected today with crossing low pressure. Dry weather should return Friday night under weak surface ridging.
628 AM CDT Thu Aug 15 2019 Showers and thunderstorms are already ongoing across the western Dakotas this morning as a sfc cold front and upper trough trek east today. Cooler temperatures will remain with the upper trough swinging through.
Early morning convective debris over the western side of the peninsula and nature coast have disturbed the low and mid level flow and provided the mentioned cloud cover, this feature will likely slow convective development today and is largely supported by short range mesoscale models. With low/mid level troughiness to the north, steering flow will be a bit stronger which should keep storms moving along a bit quicker than in past days. Heat index values again expected to peak in the low 100s. Area will be between subtropical ridge axis to the south and frontal boundary moving deeper into the southeast U.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 91 68 91 69 / 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 89 66 90 67 / 10 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 89 66 89 68 / 10 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 87 61 89 62 / 20 10 10 0.
Surface dew points were running in the lower 70s across the northern half of the CWA this morning while mid 70s continued in our south. Normal highs run in the lower 90s. Under strong insolation today, temperatures will top out a degree or two warmer than normal. Under mostly clear skies and a light wind tonight, strong radiational cooling of our drier airmass will lead to slightly cooler than normal morning lows Thursday. Normal lows run in the lower 70s. Thursday morning lows will range from the upper 60s northeast to the lower 70s elsewhere.
407 AM CDT Thu Aug 15 2019 Showers and thunderstorms are already ongoing across the western Dakotas this morning as a sfc cold front and upper trough trek east today. Cooler temperatures will remain with the upper trough swinging through.
/issued 355 AM CDT Thu Aug 15 2019/ The upper ridge centered over the AZ/NM border will weaken slightly as zonal flow sets up across the county by the weekend.
434 AM CDT Thu Aug 15 2019 A very weak trough axis will slowly move into the gulf later today keeping most sh/ts activity along and south of this line. Winds become more southwesterly as high pressure slides slowly eastward Friday and into the weekend.
The only other weather issue centers around the interior areas where high pressure aloft is providing Max temperatures in excess of 100 degrees in some of the interior valleys again today. but these warm temperatures will begin to fall on Friday as an upper trough approaches from the N and promotes gradual cooling. Marine layer depth continues to run at about 1500 feet per the McKinleyville profiler, although the low level inversion is stronger than in recent days.
552 AM EDT Thu Aug 15 2019 Under mostly clear skies with light south to southwest winds of 5 to 10 mph, temperatures are in the lower to mid 80s along the Florida Keys. Despite a mid and upper level short wave trough associated with a TUTT to our east moving westward and across our region today and this evening, a nearby ridge axis below 700 mb will provide a neutral to anticyclonic flow below. For the rest of this forecast cycle, the aforementioned TUTT will shear out while a western Atlantic high pressure system builds westward and governs our sensible weather elements. High temperatures will average in the lower 90s with overnight lows generally in the lower 80s.
152 PM EDT Thu Aug 15 2019 A trough of low pressure will keep the weather unsettled for the next several days. The highest threat will be for some gusty winds with the strongest storms along with brief heavy downpours. Weak upper troughing will once again tend to lead to mainly diurnal showers and thunderstorms Friday. The mid atlantic will be in an interesting spot in the extended as a heat ridge rapidly intensifies across the southern plains.
Weak upper troughiness persist across the eastern half of the country.
1056 AM CDT Thu Aug 15 2019 Updated the forecast late this morning to remove the fog this morning and increased the low cloud cover se of the IL river where broken stratocumulus clouds with MVFR bases of 1-3k ft quite common.
In response a lee side trough will develop over eastern Colorado and push eastward as it interacts with an upper level disturbance.
The upper-ridge remains suppressed to the southwest. Although moisture will be scant across much of the area, high temperatures of mid 90s could mean areas across the SW (where dew points will be the highest) could reach convective temperatures and a storm or two could develop.
123 PM EDT Thu Aug 15 2019 Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected today with crossing low pressure. Storm mode should remain discreet with the main threat being damaging winds with a mid- level dry layer and steep lapse rates in the low levels. Dry weather should return Friday night under weak surface ridging.
By the weekend the front will slowly start to wash out as the ridge finally start to slowly move north.
skies mainly sunny except for NE portions of the region that are stuck some weak ridging/subsidence. Temps are currently a wide mix depending on where the front lies with 70s to the low 90s the going range.
1249 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2019 Updated the forecast late this morning to remove the fog this morning and increased the low cloud cover se of the IL river where broken stratocumulus clouds with MVFR bases of 1-3k ft quite common.
As a result of the lower humidity levels, heat index values only managed to reach the upper 90s to lower 100s this afternoon except for a few spots where readings approached or briefly met heat advisory criteria. Temperatures should drop off nicely this evening and overnight under mostly clear skies with lows ranging from the lower to mid 70s. Another hot day is in store on Friday as the upper level ridge to our west edges back eastward closer to our region. Lows on Friday night will fall back into the lower to mid 70s once again as mostly clear skies prevail.
/Pelatti 12Z TAFS: A compact upper level low pressure circulation is moving across the Upper Columbia Basin early this morning. The cold pool associated with the upper low is small in area, but enough to steepen lapse rates to the point that a cluster of thunderstorms will form between KPUW to KGEG, KSFF and KCOE.
251 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2019 With the upper level ridge to our west, temperatures have been slightly cooler this afternoon, with heat indices 100-107. On Friday the ridge will shift east and subsidence will keep most of the area dry.
High pressure will remain in place over Arizona today with daytime temperatures 5 to 10 degrees above normal. High temperatures will return to near normal values over the weekend as high pressure weakens. The main story today will be continued hot temperatures as high pressure remains in place over the state. High pressure over Arizona will slowly drift southward today and Friday in response to a trough of low pressure moving through the Northern Rockies into the Upper Great Plains.
245 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2019 One last day of cooler temps are on tap this afternoon, before we climb pack into widespread triple digits. WV imagery shows an upper ridge extending from West Texas and Southeast New Mexico out into the Pacific. This feature is forecast to flatten and elongate east over the next few days, courtesy of a trough moving thru Canada and the upper CONUS.
Water vapor imagery shows the upper level high to our west has shifted slightly further to the west and is now centered over northern Mexico. Upstream an inverted upper level trough remains wedged between the aforementioned high to our west and the Bermuda High to our east. Given the higher instability and high PW values (over 2 inches), will up the Lower Keys to reflect a higher chance at seeing PoPs for today. Otherwise, temperatures are expected to once again climb into the lower 90s with a south to southwest wind at 5 to 10 mph.
157 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2019 A short wave trough over North Dakota will move across the Upper Midwest overnight into Friday morning. The forcing in the low levels does not look all the great with this system with just some very weak frontogenesis in the 850- 700 mb layer. The low level moisture transport axis should stay well to the south of the area as it is tied to another short wave trough that will pass south of the area through the overnight hours. The best chances for rain should mainly be along and north of Interstate 90, closest to the passage of the short wave trough.
Low temperatures should be slightly cooler than they had been but still mid/upper 70s and 80s along the coast does not feel cool. We should be seeing the return to a more typical summer time pattern for SE TX over the weekend as the upper level ridging that slid back to the west (at present) tries to build back to the east (across the Southern Plains) with time.
1226 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2019 Showers and thunderstorms are already ongoing across the western Dakotas this morning as a sfc cold front and upper trough trek east today. Cooler temperatures will remain with the upper trough swinging through.
Medium The lingering influence of high pressure should extend well into the evening across the area. The diurnally driven cumulus field will dissipate early and then we should see an increase in clouds late tonight ahead of a mid level wave and lower level trough axis.
Temps may end up a degree or so warmer compared to yesterday but forecast numbers are close enough. Cooler and drier conditions are currently present across eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas, especially compared to the last several nights.
Drier air and overall "cooler" temps will also be of note through this evening as low 60s dew points combine with current temps in the low to mid 80s. Given the mixed out drier dew points from this afternoon and good radiational cooling overnight, lows will settle into the low and mid 60s by Friday morning.
Upper level ridging will lead to subsident air and keep North and Central Texas skies clear overnight. Hernandez /Friday through Thursday/ An elongated ridge of high pressure will park over the southern states through the weekend, keeping hot and generally rain-free weather in place. Zonal flow north of the ridge across the Central Rockies will result in a surface lee trough across the Central High Plains and a constant influx of Gulf moisture.
There may still be some slight subsidence from ridging that could hinder development of storms but think KSGR/KHOU/KLBX be the most likely candidates for storm impacts.
311 PM EDT Thu Aug 15 2019 High pressure will retreat into the maritimes tonight with a return flow introducing gradually more humid air to the region. A couple weak upper level troughs will cross the region from southwest to northeast and provide several chances for showers through the weekend.
1142 AM EDT Thu Aug 15 2019 A trough of low pressure will keep the weather unsettled for the next several days. The mid atlantic will be in an interesting spot in the extended as a heat ridge rapidly intensifies across the southern plains.
At this point, the timing would bring the higher potential for strong storms to ABR 2100-2230Z, and ATY 2300-0030Z, before exiting into MN.
The higher values of near 105 degrees are localized and so no advisory will be issued at this time.
Meanwhile, thunderstorms continue to track across northeast KS, with an outflow boundary/cold front trailing back across central/western KS. NAM nest along with several CAM solutions suggest additional convection will develop along this boundary by late afternoon/evening and track south/southeast as the low-level jet strengthens.
On Fri, slightly stronger upper wave crosses the area, which should increase thunderstorm chances over most of the higher terrain in the afternoon. High temps on Sat will be in the 90s across the southeast plains, and in the lower to mid 80s in the San Luis and Upper Arkansas River Valleys. Sun and Mon the upper ridge builds back over CO, and there will be little moisture over the area.
Dry west-to-northwest flow aloft will make for a pleasant night across the area with dewpoints in the low to mid 60s. Overnight lows will dip down into the lower to mid 60s as well. Even with the lower dewpoints, the combination of clear skies and cooler temps will allow for some patchy fog to develop overnight. As high pressure to our west pushes further east tomorrow the flow becomes more zonal. Dewpoints will again be in the low to mid 60s.
/issued 634 AM CDT Thu Aug 15 2019/ Surface analysis this morning places a cold front from the Carolinas back through Central Georgia, Southern Alabama/Mississippi, then back into Northeast Texas. Meanwhile, a 1018 mb ridge of high pressure centered over Kansas and Missouri is resulting in clear to mostly clear skies across the Mid-south early this morning.
An upper-level ridge is still located across much of the Desert Southwest. Tomorrow, the aforementioned ridge will attempt to build back in across west Texas over the next twenty-four hours.
Dew points are a few degrees cooler in the l-m60s behind this front vs the m-u60s ahead of the front. MCS activity in the lower MO valley late tonight into early Friday may spill a few high clouds into the area on Friday afternoon. Highs may climb 2-3 degrees warmer into the l90s for most valley locations with u80s atop the higher elevations.
318 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2019 Tonight & Friday: Mostly zonal synoptic flow & surface ridging will keep dry air locked over the region through Friday. Due to that, expect similar heat to today, but with low- level thermal profiles slightly warmer (i.
Otherwise a pretty nice day Friday with highs in the lower 80s.
After a dry day today under the influence of high pressure, a progressive weather pattern over central Indiana will keep small chances for showers and storms in the forecast for most days. Thus trended toward the warmer end of guidance for the day with mostly sunny skies and only slightly cooler temperatures aloft. Generally accepted the averaged solution of the NBM bringing chances for showers and storms across the area through the day on Friday with the highest probabilities occurring during the afternoon and into the evening.
While we aren't expecting rain for the next couple of days, we lose the upper troughing and northerly boundary layer flow, which will allow temperatures to begin climbing again.
Temperatures will warm into the lower 90s with afternoon heat indices ranging from 95-100F.
544 PM EDT Thu Aug 15 2019 High pressure will retreat into the maritimes tonight with a return flow introducing gradually more humid air to the region. A couple weak upper level troughs will cross the region from southwest to northeast and provide several chances for showers through the weekend.
Friday looks to generally be dry outside of the mountains, but by tomorrow night a cold front will drop into the area.
While temperatures still managed to climb well into the 90s, the lower dewpoints kept resultant heat indices lower than those of earlier in the week.
Skies are SKC to FEW across North and Central TX this evening as upper-level ridging builds back into place. Upper level ridging will lead to subsident air and keep North and Central Texas skies clear overnight. /Issued 312 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2019/ /Friday through Thursday/ An elongated ridge of high pressure will park over the southern states through the weekend, keeping hot and generally rain-free weather in place. Zonal flow north of the ridge across the Central Rockies will result in a surface lee trough across the Central High Plains and a constant influx of Gulf moisture.
On the eastern part of the plains temperatures are cooler and the airmass will likely remained capped, with a slight chance of storms over the northern border and maybe the west part of the Palmer Divide early this evening. The cooler temperatures will mean the we will likely be capped most of the day tomorrow, but there will probably be enough moisture for some storms late in the day and a better chance in the evening. The highest CAPEs may actually be closer to the mountains in the late afternoon/early evening if it gets warm enough, which is still uncertain.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 68 91 69 94 / 0 0 0 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 66 90 67 92 / 0 0 0 10 Oak Ridge, TN 65 90 67 92 / 0 0 0 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 61 87 62 90 / 10 0 0 10.