Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Ongoing convection is expected to continue to develop and spread across Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas this evening and overnight as a cold front enters the CWA tonight. /Issued 311 PM CDT Tue Apr 25 2017/ A cold front currently poised to our west across northwest Oklahoma will provide the spark for strong to severe thunderstorms across northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas Tonight. Temperatures will be much cooler on Wednesday in the wake of the cold front.
This cold front will continue to push eastward with time, ultimately being the focal point for convective development later in the day. Deep layer shear values will be in the 40 to 50 kt range, but shear vectors will be generally parallel to the cold front so storm mode could be more linear by the time it reaches the forecast area.
Another upper level trough then sets up across the area Wednesday afternoon returning more chances for showers and thunderstorms.
1201 AM EDT Wed Apr 26 2017 Low pressure will approach from the south overnight and Wednesday.
Tightening pressure gradients from an upper-level trough passing to our north will create westerly wind gusts of 50-60 mph along portions of the mountains and deserts, with highest gusts along desert mountain slopes Wednesday night.
The guidance remains optimistic and given the higher heights think this is reasonable.
1027 PM CDT Tue Apr 25 2017 Have made changes to the rain chances for late tonight for the far Northern zones in SE OK and parts of SW AR, then increased and changed the location of the higher chances for Wednesday along with adding the chance for severe thunderstorms and heavy rainfall. Timing of convection is the main concern for the day Wednesday as storms are expected to erupt along and ahead of a cold front moving into the region from the northwest. A warm front will quickly return north thu night and early fri, with very steep lapse rates albeit a weak mid lvl capping.
/Issued 257 PM EDT Tue Apr 25 2017/ Upper low off the North Carolina coast will continue to pull away taking what moisture is left with it. Skies will become clear tonight as a weak upper ridge builds over the CWA. All models agree with a short wave being kicked out of the main trough and moving into the Tennessee Valley late Wednesday night.
926 PM EDT Tue Apr 25 2017 Low pressure off of the Delmarva will move slowly northeastward away from the Mid-Atlantic coast Wednesday.
A cold front move through the KABI around 8Z and through southern TAF sites early Wednesday morning. Surface cold front has plowed into the Texas Panhandle and temperatures have dropped into the 50s behind it. Much cooler conditions expected for Wednesday with afternoon highs ranging from the upper 60s across the Big Country north of I-20 to the lower 80s along the I-10 areas.
AS OF TUESDAY AFTERNOON, A COLD FRONT WAS BISECTING THE CWA FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST. EXPECT WIDESPREAD LINEAR CONVECTION TO INITIATE ALONG THE COLD FRONT, MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF THE KS TURNPIKE. THE PRIMARY CONVECTIVE MODE EXPECTED IS A CLUSTER OF MULTICELLS ALONG THE COLD FRONT ALTHOUGH A BOWING SEGMENT CAN'T BE RULED OUT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER WITH HIGHS ONLY REACHING THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S DURING THE AFTERNOON.
746 PM CDT Tue Apr 25 2017 MVFR/IFR ceilings will develop this evening and overnight ahead of an approaching cold front. Surface winds from the south will stay breezy as low-level flow remains increased in response to the approaching trough. VFR will return after sunrise as a west wind moves into the region behind a pre-frontal trough. An upper level trough moves out of the Rockies tonight and across the Plains Wednesday into Wednesday night. A cold front moves across our area late in the afternoon into early evening.
700 PM CDT Tue Apr 25 2017 Ceilings are forecast to lower to MVFR through the evening under stout south winds per a tight onshore pressure gradient (as the region falls downstream of an approaching cold front). /ISSUED 350 PM CDT Tue Apr 25 2017/ Moderate onshore flow and above-normal temperatures will continue into tomorrow before the arrival of a cold front tomorrow afternoon/evening.
Freezing level is at 13,900 feet while the -20C level is at 23,400 feet and the wet bulb zero at 7,800 feet. Low pressure system is developing with frontogenesis taking place in west Texas.
Thus, any snow that falls will quickly melt, especially considering surface temperatures will be slightly above freezing.
As the region falls downstream of an approaching cold front. /ISSUED 350 PM CDT Tue Apr 25 2017/ Moderate onshore flow and above-normal temperatures will continue into tomorrow before the arrival of a cold front tomorrow afternoon/evening.
1019 PM EDT Tue Apr 25 2017 Low pressure centered over Delmarva tonight will continue moving northeastward. High pressure will ridge into the forecast area from the Atlantic in the wake of this system Wednesday.
Strong cold front currently stretches along the Kansas Turnpike and will continue tracking southeast. By 12z Wed, cold front will extend through the Ozark region with only far SE KS still having a chance for a few storms with this chance east of the area by early Wed afternoon. The bigger story Wed will be much cooler temps with highs expected to be 10-15 degrees below normal with gusty nw winds.
It was a very nice, clear evening across Mid TN with high pressure overhead. Lows tonight will be in the lower to mid 50s. This will occur in advance of a cold front, that is expected to be near the Mississippi River by the end of the forecast period.
Moisture streaming north ahead of an approaching trough of low pressure will bring increasing chances of showers. IFR cigs expected behind a cold front Wednesday night. A strong low pressure system exiting missouri will reach Wisconsin Wednesday.
For tonight, a chance of light showers exists with passage of a weak warm front.
942 PM EDT Tue Apr 25 2017 Low pressure will move further away from the area tonight, allowing for weak high pressure to return in its place. High pressure will prevail across the region Wednesday.
/issued 1027 PM CDT Tue Apr 25 2017/ Have made changes to the rain chances for late tonight for the far Northern zones in SE OK and parts of SW AR, then increased and changed the location of the higher chances for Wednesday along with adding the chance for severe thunderstorms and heavy rainfall.
A broad upper level low pressure trough was currently moving through the central and southern Rockies this afternoon.
Timing of convection is the main concern for the day Wednesday as storms are expected to erupt along and ahead of a cold front moving into the region from the northwest. A warm front will quickly return north thu night and early fri, with very steep lapse rates albeit a weak mid lvl capping.
Orographic showers will linger in the northwesterly flow overnight and into Wednesday as the next Pacific trough digs inland.
801 PM CDT Tue Apr 25 2017 Latest water vapor imagery showed cyclonic flow prevailing over the western and central CONUS with a mid-level closed low evident over eastern WY. Upper level trough over WY to the Four corners will move east to the Upper Midwest-Southern Plains tomorrow.
Much lighter winds and warmer afternoon temperatures are expected Wednesday.
This evening, 700 mb flow becomes more northerly as this low moves east of our area, and snow bands deteriorate from west to east.
517 PM MDT Tue Apr 25 2017 Current surface analysis shows low pressure over southeast WY, with frontal boundary south and west of the forecast area. Upper level analysis shows low pressure over the Black Hills, starting to move eastward. Large trough covers the western half of the US. Skies will become partly cloudy with high temperatures in the 40s, some upper 30s across the higher Black Hills.
604 PM MDT Tue Apr 25 2017 Current LAPS surface analysis shows a cold front sliding southward into Colorado this afternoon with a band of convection just along the boundary. Temperatures will not rebound all that much as another round of convection is expected in the afternoon once the ridge axis moves into the plains.
Have also lowered overnight low temperatures given the magnitude of the cold air spreading south across Kansas behind the cold front.
1129 PM EDT Tue Apr 25 2017 Building high pressure will return dry, and very warm weather to the Upper Ohio Region for Wednesday. Previous discussion for Tuesday: Insolation with rising heights/warm advection in response to a deepening plains trough will resume dry weather for Wednesday, and drive temperature well above the averages.
It was a very nice, clear evening across Mid TN with high pressure overhead. Lows tonight will be in the lower to mid 50s. This will occur in advance of a cold front, that is expected to be near the Tennessee River by the end of the forecast period.
Developing upper trough over the Plains will produce a southwest flow aloft. Quite a range in max temps for Wednesday ranging form the lower 70s over the east, to mid 50s across the northwest where cooler air is filtering into the area along with the more widespread rains.
1003 PM CDT Tue Apr 25 2017 Southerly winds continue to bring warmer and more humid air over the region, with considerable stratocu streaming northward across the area. Temperatures remain quite mild this evening in the lower to middle 70s and should only fall a few more degrees with lows expected to be in the lower 70s acrs much of the area, with possibly a few upper 60s over central LA.
However, the low level should remain saturated so cloudy conditions are still expected through the day Wednesday, with maybe a little sunshine from the James Valley west. Colder air moves in on Wed night as the H5 trough slowly moves into northern Minnesota by late Wed night/Thurs morning. This is expected to be the coldest night through the extended cold period with all sites below freezing.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 56 86 62 78 / 0 0 30 70 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 54 84 62 78 / 0 0 10 60 Oak Ridge, TN 54 84 62 77 / 0 0 20 60 Tri Cities Airport, TN 52 83 55 80 / 0 0 10 50.
/ISSUED 700 PM CDT Tue Apr 25 2017/ Ceilings are forecast to lower to MVFR through the evening under stout south winds per a tight onshore pressure gradient (as the region falls downstream of an approaching cold front). /ISSUED 350 PM CDT Tue Apr 25 2017/ Moderate onshore flow and above-normal temperatures will continue into tomorrow before the arrival of a cold front tomorrow afternoon/evening.
730 PM EDT Tue Apr 25 2017 Low pressure centered over Delmarva tonight will continue moving northeastward. High pressure will ridge into the forecast area from the Atlantic in the wake of this system Wednesday.
726 PM EDT Tue Apr 25 2017 Low pressure system moves off the Carolinas coast loosing its grip on our weather. Brief high pressure builds tonight and Wednesday.
Expect the low pressure system aloft to move across the region on Wednesday for unsettled conditions and locally gusty winds.
Satellite and height fall analysis shows the southern end this trough extending from this low has begun and will continue split off and dig to the south. First the 12z DDC sounding show a very deep and dry air mass that will advecting into the area ahead of the upper low over Wyoming and southern extension of that low. The southern of portion of this trough is shown by the model output to be splitting/cutting off further south and west than indicated early. The high resolution output picked on that with keeping the northeast portion of my area dry through tonight. ridging aloft and drier conditions will prevail across the area for this period. Will have more sun but the air mass will be cooler. Overall the temperatures will be a little cooler than what is occurring today.
1152 PM CDT Tue Apr 25 2017 /06Z TAFS/ Cold front will move through KABI around 8Z and through the rest of West Central Texas at or after sunrise, shifting winds to the northwest. A cold front move through the KABI around 8Z and through southern TAF sites early Wednesday morning. Surface cold front has plowed into the Texas Panhandle and temperatures have dropped into the 50s behind it. Much cooler conditions expected for Wednesday with afternoon highs ranging from the upper 60s across the Big Country north of I-20 to the lower 80s along the I-10 areas.
Moisture streaming north ahead of an approaching trough of low pressure will eventually bring increasing chances of showers or an isolated thunderstorm after midnight. A weak short wave ahead of the low is helping to support the narrow band of showers/virga lifting north through southern Wisconsin this afternoon. Thereafter, we start to see showers associated with the low and its cold front enter areas west of Madison, then move slowly east overnight. The cold front will reach Madison by early afternoon on Wednesday and Milwaukee toward early evening.
Highs on Wednesday will depend on location of cold front. Byrd Showers and storms will continue Wednesday night as the upper level trough goes negatively tilted as it moves east-northeastward through our area. The models depict strong upper level divergence ahead of this trough.
A strong low pressure system exiting missouri will reach Wisconsin Wednesday.
High pressure briefly builds across the region tonight then gives way to a series of progressively colder systems through the remainder of the week. Lingering showers have mostly dissipated, although a few lower clouds remain in place along and near the higher terrain of northern Utah and southwest Wyoming. Otherwise, high clouds have started to spread into northwest Utah ahead of the next trough which will impact the area tomorrow. Snow levels will rise until the storm system pushes a cold front through the area tomorrow evening.
1046 PM EDT Tue Apr 25 2017 Low pressure will approach from the south overnight and Wednesday.
1147 PM CDT Tue Apr 25 2017 Band of showers associated with a warm front lifting northward across the region this afternoon, and should slide north of the local area by 00z or so. Meanwhile, a cold front lies just to the west, and should make its way to the Mississippi river by 12-15z Wed. The cold front works into eastern wi/central ill by 00z thu, just in time for another 500 mb through (currently swinging across the desert southwest) to lift northeast toward the Great Lakes.
911 PM EDT Tue Apr 25 2017 Low pressure system moves off the Carolinas coast loosing its grip on our weather. Brief high pressure builds tonight and Wednesday.
627 PM CDT Tue Apr 25 2017 Gusty south winds will continue into this evening, as a cold front approaches from the west. Low level moisture will be on a steady increase tonight, with the cold front expected to reach near the Mississippi River by 12z/7am Wednesday. Better chances of rain will begin Wednesday afternoon as the cold front pushes to near I-55.
Cold front will then move through later Wednesday.
642 PM CDT Tue Apr 25 2017 Band of showers associated with a warm front lifting northward across the region this afternoon, and should slide north of the local area by 00z or so. Meanwhile, a cold front lies just to the west, and should make its way to the Mississippi river by 12-15z Wed. The cold front works into eastern wi/central ill by 00z thu, just in time for another 500 mb through (currently swinging across the desert southwest) to lift northeast toward the Great Lakes.
725 PM EDT Tue Apr 25 2017 Low pressure in the central plains will move northeast to the western Great Lakes by Wednesday evening. A cold front will extend south to the texas coast.
741 PM EDT Tue Apr 25 2017 A low pressure system off the North Carolina coast will move slowly northeast through Wednesday.
Afternoon highs will reach the upper 70s to the lower 80s.
148 PM EDT Sun Apr 8 2018 Aviation An area of high pressure located in Iowa this morning will track through the Great Lakes Region today. A weak area of low pressure will move in from the west late tonight and Monday. The weather today will be dominated by a weak area of high pressure which tracks eastward through the state.
338 PM EDT Sun Apr 8 2018 Skies have gone mostly cloudy this afternoon with cirrus streaming in from the northwest downstream of weakening low pressure over Nebraska. Temperatures are currently in the low to mid 40s with dewpoints in the low to mid 20s, so expect evaporative cooling to cut down on QPF and cool the boundary layer between 00-03z. Lows tonight will be in the low to mid 30s. With temperatures above freezing for several hours this evening and tonight, roads should just be wet. An upper level trough swinging through Monday night will bring cloudy skies, but no precipitation.
Expect some breaks in the clouds and warmer temperatures tomorrow along with possible shower develop- ment (mainly south of the I-10 corridor). These rain chances continue into Monday night until a cold front moves through the area and dries everything out.
As this low sinks southeastward across the South Plains a front will bring an abrupt northerly to easterly wind shift through the late afternoon and evening hours.
1248 PM CDT Sun Apr 8 2018 Quite a few clouds are over Arkansas at this time even with high pressure over the area. as most areas within the CWA have dropped to around or below freezing so far. Will keep the Freeze Warning in place through 09Z this morning when temps will warm above freezing for most areas. Will be keeping a close eye on this trend to see if a Freezing Fog Adv may be needed if it becomes more widespread this morning.
However, have decided to go with the latest high resolution model trends and will keep the warmer temperatures. The warmer temperatures across the west and southwest will keep the Fire Weather threat up as well (See Fire Weather Discussion). Highs on Monday will be in the low 60s to low 70s.
327 PM CDT Sun Apr 8 2018 Mid level trough axis sweeping across the area this afternoon, resulting in some light radar returns that are not reaching the ground. Skies should clear some as the trough continues to pull away from the region tonight.
340 PM MDT Sun Apr 8 2018 Current surface analysis shows low pressure over northeast NE, with frontal boundary sliding south of the forecast area. Ridge is in place along the west coast. Snow accumulations up to 2 or 3 inches are possible over the higher elevations of the northern Black Hills and the Bear Lodge Mts, with little or no accumulation expected elsewhere.
While patchy freezing drizzle is possible southwest with ice loss through this evening and tonight, any impacts will be minimal. For Monday, the 12 UTC global suite is in agreement on cold high pressure and another day of well below normal high temperatures across western and central North Dakota.
Temperatures in the higher elevations of SW VA and east TN. will be near or at freezing through sunrise. The temperature profile is right on the freezing line at the surface. so if clouds move in faster to these areas and keep temperatures a little bit warmer.
257 PM EDT Sun Apr 8 2018 High pressure will provide mostly sunny skies and light winds today. Temperatures however will remain cool with highs generally in the low 40s. Chances for light snow and rain will return later tonight through Monday night as a weak low pressure system moves through. Will defer to eve shift to monitor trends further to see if additional timing/pop changes are needed in this low confidence setup. Slowly increasing heights will start the process of allowing warmer air into the area. Dry conditions will prevail until mid week when low pressure will track across the northern Great Lakes, bring a brief shot of warm air advection precip (mainly rain) to the area.
The roads in Valley City have melted and they look wet south of Breckenridge MN. Flat upper level ridge was over the area with an upper trough over MT and southern ALTA.
358 PM EDT Sun Apr 8 2018 Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb trough over the lower Great Lakes this morning with a closed low off the Pacific NW coast. That said, there will be some mid- to upper-level clouds moving in from the west as a low pressure system currently over the Central Plains inches closer to the Great Lakes region.
For tonight, a shallow cold front will south across much of the area by Monday morning. However, temperatures will a little warmer due to an increase in boundary layer moisture. A quiet weather pattern is in store for Monday with cooler temperatures.
Temperatures have warmed into the lower to mid 70s in the Rio Grande Plains, Edwards Plateau, and western Hill Country where clear skies and warm air advection has been in place for more than a few hours. However, temperatures are still in the lower 50s over our far northeastern counties where overcast conditions continue, with 60s in between along the I-35/37 corridor that cleared out over the past few hours. Models continue to trend cooler with high temperatures for tomorrow due to the cloud cover and northeasterly flow, so we have decreased tomorrow's high temperatures to upper 60s and lower 70s for most of the region with mid to upper 70s over Val Verde County. Shower activity may increase over our southern counties tomorrow evening as the mid-to-upper level trough moves through the region.
Some of the higher resolution models are also continuing to hint at some light rain across our southern areas later this evening, but given the shallow nature of this stratus deck, doubt we will see anything more than a few sprinkles at best. Therefore, not expecting any freezing temperatures tonight, but it will still be on the chilly side for this time of year. Dry and warmer conditions will prevail across the region tomorrow, with temperatures warming between 8 and 12 degrees across the region tomorrow.
355 PM CDT Sun Apr 8 2018 A short wave trough will approach the Panhandles tonight and should bring some convection, mainly showers, to the Oklahoma and possibly the far northwestern Texas Panhandles.
137 PM EDT Sun Apr 8 2018 High pressure to the west builds toward the region today.
High pressure moving in from the west will raise temperatures through mid week before a potent system later this week brings strong winds, cooler temperatures and a chance of precipitation to parts of the area. A weak cold front ushered in - stronger than advertised - north winds this morning across the Las Vegas valley. Outside of breezy to locally strong winds, an upper ridge moving onshore will keep temperatures above normal temperatures through Monday.
252 PM CDT Sun Apr 8 2018 Skies are mostly cloudy across the forecast area this afternoon with temperatures in the lower 40s to lower 50s. High pressure covers much of the eastern U. High pressure will remain over the region tonight and Monday so dry weather with continue. Monday will see warmer temperatures than today with highs in the upper 50s to mid 60s.
322 PM EDT Sun Apr 8 2018 High pressure along the mid-Atlantic coast tonight will move east Monday. On Monday, low pressure will move from the northeast Gulf of Mexico into the western Atlantic.
Fairly benign weather is in store for our forecast area tonight and Monday as high pressure builds into the area for a little longer than a day. On Monday the ridge of high pressure will move into the coastal waters early then progress inland throughout the day. This ridge extends from Sacramento north through Oregon into British Columbia so confidence is high that we will see high temperatures inland about 10 to 15 degrees above seasonal norms. A cold front will approach the coast late Monday night.
350 PM CDT Sun Apr 8 2018 High pressure over the Great Lakes this afternoon with the old cold frontal boundary washing out over the northern Gulf of Mexico. Still could see a few sprinkles over the lower portions of the Louisiana coastal parishes, but no significant amounts of rainfall over the next 24 hours.
After midnight, still a question of ice introduction on the back edge so could end up a mix of freezing rain/drizzle and light snow. The wind will gradually subside overnight as the area of low pressure moves off to the south of the state.
That said, there will be some mid- to upper-level clouds moving in from the west as a low pressure system currently over the Central Plains inches closer to the Great Lakes region.