Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Ideal conditions for significant cooling due to radiative processes are ongoing with temperatures across much of the area along and north of the interstate 20 corridor now at or below freezing. /LDP/GG/ Prior discussion below: High pressure ridge at the surface over the lower Miss River Valley this afternoon will slowly drift to the east tonight. Southerly winds will lighten after sunset, becoming light and variable if not calm overnight under the ridge axis. Clear skies and calm winds will set up for a cool night, dropping the lows to below freezing for Central Miss and the ArkLaMiss region. Tomorrow will see temperatures warm slightly into the 50s with the winds coming around to more southerly on the back side of the ridge.
Fairly progressive pattern as the upper flow transitions from northwesterly today to weak ridging tonight and eventually southwesterly Saturday ahead of the next upper trough digging into the Mississippi Valley.
Southerly winds at 15-20mph sustained with gusts around 35mph Another calm cool day for our area as we find ourselves on the backside of the trough that came through yesterday.
The lower atmosphere remains moist after the precipitation which fell last night and today. Dry weather is expected most of Friday as an upper ridge passes over the area, with temperatures slightly above normal.
Temperatures could briefly touch freezing over the Nature Coast around sunrise this morning, with patches/areas of frost also possible in areas of light wind.
Winds have decoupled at some inland locations this evening, allowing temperatures to drop quickly to near freezing in parts of SE Alabama and SW Georgia. However, later tonight, the center of the high is expected to shift a bit more to the north and away from the area, possibly allowing a bit more boundary layer mixing and preventing temperatures from reaching the mid 20s. With our region near the center of an upper-level ridge axis Friday night we'll continue to see clear skies and drier conditions which will provide a brief window for potential frost in our northernmost counties across SW Georgia and SE Alabama early Saturday morning as temps and dew points hover around freezing. Expect overnight lows to be in the low to mid 30s with daytime highs in the low to mid 60s.
Some slick spots are possible on roads as temperatures remain well below freezing. Besides the fog overnight, overall warmer temperatures are expected through the forecast period besides a brief shot of cold temperatures Saturday.
1113 PM EST Thu Dec 17 2020 An upper level trough will swing over the state tonight.
1105 PM EST Thu Dec 17 2020 A cold front that has been advertised for the last few days is finally passing through the region. Cooler and drier air is slowly filtering across the region. Dew points are now down into the lower 60s. Winds will be increasing shortly for the far eastern waters, including the Florida Bay, as northerly winds behind a cold front promote a wind surge coming off the mainland overnight. As drier air continues to filter into the area, the low level moisture will erode and so too should the clouds. The cold air advection associated with this front will be quick as a transient high pressure will move eastward across the southeast US. Fresh northerly breezes continues in the wake of the recent cold front passage.
923 PM CST Thu Dec 17 2020 (This evening through Friday) The mid/upper trough, currently centered near Idaho and Nevada, is expected to cross the Rockies and reach the plains late Friday. Meanwhile, a LLJ is prog'd to develop over KS and the OK/TX panhandles tonight as cyclogenesis begins over the high plains. The upper jet streak located along the southern/leeward side of the app FM190400 22005G10KT P6SM BKN002=roaching trough will transport thick cirrus into our area tonight and tomorrow. Some midlevel clouds are expected to develop over NW OK tomorrow morning, with these clouds translating SE across the CWA during the day as a cold front approaches.
BW Chattanooga Airport, TN 26 47 28 50 39 / 0 0 0 10 30 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 26 44 27 49 36 / 10 0 0 0 30 Oak Ridge, TN 25 44 27 48 35 / 10 0 0 0 40 Tri Cities Airport, TN 26 40 25 48 33 / 10 0 0 0 30.
A cold front will also slide southeast bisecting the cwa by evening. The front will progress southeast across east central Kansas this evening as the mid level trough progresses eastward across Kansas. Tonight, behind the cold front lows will dip into the 20s.
/22/ Ideal conditions for significant cooling due to radiative processes are ongoing with temperatures across much of the area along and north of the interstate 20 corridor now at or below freezing. /LDP/GG/ Prior discussion below: High pressure ridge at the surface over the lower Miss River Valley this afternoon will slowly drift to the east tonight. Southerly winds will lighten after sunset, becoming light and variable if not calm overnight under the ridge axis. Clear skies and calm winds will set up for a cool night, dropping the lows to below freezing for Central Miss and the ArkLaMiss region. Tomorrow will see temperatures warm slightly into the 50s with the winds coming around to more southerly on the back side of the ridge.
Models remain in good agreement this morning with a surface cold front crossing southwest Kansas today as an upper level trough moves out into the West Central High Plains. As the surface cold front passes some cooler air will begin to filter into southwest Kansas late day but not before temperatures have had time to rebound back into the 40s. A few areas over the snowpack may even struggle to climb out of the upper 30s based on the increasing clouds and cooler air returning behind this cold front later today. Cloudy skies early tonight will accompany the upper level trough as it crosses western Kansas between sunset and midnight.
244 AM CST Fri Dec 18 2020 Not bad weather expected today for mid December behind yesterdays passing upper trough. Plateau likely to hit the lower 40s. Moisture advection will begin early in the day and with vertical motion strengthening throughout the day, showers likely to breakout by midday west, then expand in coverage throughout the afternoon, and especially into the evening as the upper trough passes.
227 AM EST Fri Dec 18 2020 Clear and cold conditions will prevail today and Saturday as high pressure settles over the region.
Decoupled, light surface wind tonight with strenghthening wind fields above the ground associated with lee cyclogenesis in the High Plains will result in LLWS nern OK sites into mid morning Friday.
355 AM PST Fri Dec 18 2020 High pressure building over the Great Basin will bring sunny, mild days and clear nights this weekend.
419 AM MST Fri Dec 18 2020 Upper trough axis is crossing the Rockies. Satellite shows a distinct line of clearing just ahead of the trough axis at high levels, but low clouds linger across the region. Rain/snow continues across the CWA, gradually shifting southward with the low- level trough and band of frontogenesis. As cold high pressure sinks into the Dakotas today, northwesterly winds will become breezy.
/issued 309 AM CST Fri Dec 18 2020/ Analysis of morning satellite imagery indicates an upper-level trough currently located over the intermountain west, slowly moving east, driving a cold front towards the CWA. Moisture advected ahead of the aforementioned trough will help keep high clouds over the area for much of the day. Winds will attempt to calm as the sun sets; however, as the front dives trough the area, the wind will shift to the north and increase once again. Unfortunately, the front is progged to pass through the area quickly, and the lower-levels of the atmospheric column remain rather dry. Kendrick The upper trough referenced above will depart east early Saturday with cool and dry northwest flow expected over the weekend.
The exception were a few sites along the Mississippi river that were near freezing still. The mid level ridge axis will shift east of Mississippi this afternoon.
423 AM CST Fri Dec 18 2020 A cold front will continue to move through the Dakotas this morning. Rising heights Saturday morning will quickly give way to another trough by afternoon as another front moves through. The period begins Saturday night with an area of low pressure and upper level trough crossing the region.
Bufkit soundings would suggest precipitation type should be all snow so have removed the mention of freezing drizzle out of the forecast.
Dewpoints by this evening should be into the lower 60s in the east. Rain chances will increase tomorrow as the main upper level trough moves closer and a cold front pushes through the area.
For today, the forecast holds our first near to above normal high temps in some time, courtesy of low amplitude ridging aloft. This ridge will pass to the east tonight, replaced with increasingly strong southwesterly flow ahead of a positively-tilted upper trof lifting out of the southern plains. Showers remain on track to pass through the Midsouth on Saturday, associated with the upper trof passage.
(Today and tonight) The upper level trough continues to move into the Rockies and impact the region Friday night tonight. Lee-side cyclogenesis in the lower levels in response to the trough will tighten pressure/height gradients, and will result in gusty conditions throughout the day Friday ahead of the cold front. The continuing presence of snowpack in northern Oklahoma will result in cooler high temperatures. The cold front begins to move through the area Friday night into Saturday. These showers will continue through the overnight hours and shift eastward with the upper level trough and cold front passage.
The corresponding surface cold front will move southeast across the fcst area beginning late this morning and should be southeast of the area sometime early this evening.
Given the subfreezing temperatures and light winds, patchy freezing fog is possible along and near bodies of water in the late night and at daybreak. A near zonal flow upper this morning will become more WSW in the late afternoon, as another trough along the Continental Divide gathering steam develops to our west. High clouds preceding this trough will move across the region during the course of the day. Despite otherwise sunny skies, high temperatures later today should only rise into the upper 40s, a bit cooler than normal highs in the lower 50s. The above noted trough will advance to the east during the course of tonight and during Saturday, with clouds on the increase. Warmer temperatures than the past few nights will also keep the precipitation in a liquid state, with low temperatures Sat night near 40.
525 AM CST Fri Dec 18 2020 A cold front will continue to move through the Dakotas this morning. Rising heights Saturday morning will quickly give way to another trough by afternoon as another front moves through. The period begins Saturday night with an area of low pressure and upper level trough crossing the region.
642 AM EST Fri Dec 18 2020 High pressure will build into the area today drying out the region and providing decreasing clouds.
Today Through Saturday Night Another cold morning across the state with readings at or below freezing for many. Automated wx stations and satellite imagery show some localized fog development, have included freezing fog wording in the forecast through daybreak but don't expect widespread impacts given the localized nature of the FG. Sfc ridging will begin to shift east today and srly winds will increase, bringing moisture northward across the state. Aloft, H500 ridging will briefly work its way over the area which will help temperatures warm into the 50s for many later today. A cold front will accompany this system and widespread rainfall is expected.
507 AM CST Fri Dec 18 2020 Water vapor imagery shows an upper level trough over the Rockies with moisture streaming in from the Pacific across the southern and central plains. At the surface, pressure gradient was beginning to tighten over the plains with the departing high pressure system across the TN/OH valley region and the next front along the front range of the Rockies. Temperatures this morning were in the mid to upper 20s over the eastern Ozarks where the wind was more calm, and the low to mid 30s over the western CWA which was starting to get some high clouds and a southerly wind. By this evening, the front will push into southeast Kansas with the upper level trough over western KS.
353 AM MST Fri Dec 18 2020 The positive tilt mid-level long wave trough was moving eastward over the forecast area early this morning. The trough will continue to track eastward this morning with its axis shifting east of the Continental Divide according to model consensus. Despite subsidence on the backside of the trough, residual moisture, instability and favorable northwest to north flow will continue to bring snow to the mountains along the Continental Divide well into the afternoon. Snow diminishes over all but the Elkhead and Park Mountains tonight as the trough moves farther eastward over the Plains.
313 AM CST Fri Dec 18 2020 Currently clear skies prevail across the region with temperatures generally in the low to mid 30s.
949 AM EST Fri Dec 18 2020 High pressure will build into the area today drying out the region and providing decreasing clouds.
High pressure stretching from the Ohio River Valley to the Gulf Coast will shift farther east today toward the East Coast.
This is due to the trough now sitting over the desert southwest and the eastern Pacific ridge trying to build over norCal. By late tonight and tomorrow morning, high pressure is forecast to move over norCal.
This will slowly shift eastward as an upper level wave drives a trough of low pressure through the Upper Midwest later today. Meanwhile to the south the saturation is mainly in the low levels, and some drizzle could mix in at times. This could be patchy freezing drizzle if surface temps dip below 32 degrees. Looking ahead to Saturday, high pressure will build in so expect clearing skies with light winds and highs near 30.
Tranquil and dry conditions will follow for the remainder of today, as an extensive north/south ridge of high pressure builds east and over the state.
607 AM CST Fri Dec 18 2020 (Today and tonight) The upper level trough continues to move into the Rockies and impact the region Friday night tonight. Lee-side cyclogenesis in the lower levels in response to the trough will tighten pressure/height gradients, and will result in gusty conditions throughout the day Friday ahead of the cold front. The continuing presence of snowpack in northern Oklahoma will result in cooler high temperatures. The cold front begins to move through the area Friday night into Saturday. These showers will continue through the overnight hours and shift eastward with the upper level trough and cold front passage.
542 AM CST Fri Dec 18 2020 For the 12Z TAFs, a weak cold front will move across the terminal sites late this morning through the afternoon hours with winds becoming north behind this boundary. The corresponding surface cold front will move southeast across the fcst area beginning late this morning and should be southeast of the area sometime early this evening.
404 AM EST Fri Dec 18 2020 High pressure will build into the area today drying out the region and providing decreasing clouds.
553 AM CST Fri Dec 18 2020 For 12/18/2020 12Z TAF Issuance Another tranquil night as high pressure remains largely centered over the region. High pressure slides east through the day with ESE to SE winds developing. /issued 313 AM CST Fri Dec 18 2020/ Currently clear skies prevail across the region with temperatures generally in the low to mid 30s.
356 AM CST Fri Dec 18 2020 Southerly winds increase through the day, bringing warmer air to the region.
413 AM EST Fri Dec 18 2020 A ridge of high pressure will build across the region today and Saturday bringing dry conditions and seasonably cool temperatures.
Not bad weather expected today for mid December behind yesterdays passing upper trough. Plateau likely to hit the lower 40s. Moisture advection will begin early in the day and with vertical motion strengthening throughout the day, showers likely to breakout by midday west, then expand in coverage throughout the afternoon, and especially into the evening as the upper trough passes.
639 AM EST Fri Dec 18 2020 A ridge of high pressure will build across the region today and Saturday bringing dry conditions and seasonably cool temperatures.
A dry weather disturbance moving through today will lead to breezy northerly winds along the Lower Colorado River Valley and continued near normal temperatures elsewhere.
324 AM MST Fri Dec 18 2020 Cold front moving through the region early this morning has brought some mid and low level clouds to portions of northeast Montana, but as the radar reflectivity shows, this is mainly a dry cold front.
553 AM CST Fri Dec 18 2020 (Today and tonight) An upper level trough will move toward the area today from the western U. As this trough approaches, surface pressure falls in the plains ahead of the low will allow for a tighter surface pressure gradient across west central Texas, and gusty south winds of 15 to 25 mph today. Tonight, as the upper level trough moves east through the central and southern plains, a cold front will sweep southeast through our area.
Gusty southerly winds return along within increasing high cloud cover today ahead of a cold front forecast to push into Northeast Oklahoma late tonight. increasing mid level clouds are forecast to become MVFR ceilings over the CWA as the cold front approaches from the west. The approaching system will induce pressure falls to our west, tightening the gradient across the region with high pressure to the east. Moisture return ahead of the upper system and associated cold front tonight into Saturday will bring rain/shower chances.
The combination of some light fog and sub freezing temperatures this morning is causing a few slick spots on area roadways. Will mention some patchy freezing fog possible (temps in the low to mid 20s mostly) in the grids and continue to monitor through the early morning hours. Highs are expected to recover to the low to mid 40s in most spots, with upper 30s likely still holding on in the far NE. Clouds and shower chances will increase through the day Saturday ahead of an approaching cold front from the west.
Very cold air has moved in to the region with temperatures in the low teens and 20s this morning along with a cold east wind gusting to around 30-50 mph along the ridges.
(Today and tonight) An upper level trough will move toward the area today from the western U. As this trough approaches, surface pressure falls in the plains ahead of the low will allow for a tighter surface pressure gradient across west central Texas, and gusty south winds of 15 to 25 mph today. Tonight, as the upper level trough moves east through the central and southern plains, a cold front will sweep southeast through our area.
637 AM EST Fri Dec 18 2020 High pressure will build over the region today and Saturday.
North of I-4 will struggle to get to 60 degrees while areas south of I-4 should get into the low 60's. Temperatures could briefly touch freezing over the Nature Coast around sunrise this morning, with patches/areas of frost also possible in areas of light wind.
309 AM CST Fri Dec 18 2020 Analysis of morning satellite imagery indicates an upper-level trough currently located over the intermountain west, slowly moving east, driving a cold front towards the CWA. Moisture advected ahead of the aforementioned trough will help keep high clouds over the area for much of the day. Winds will attempt to calm as the sun sets; however, as the front dives trough the area, the wind will shift to the north and increase once again. Unfortunately, the front is progged to pass through the area quickly, and the lower-levels of the atmospheric column remain rather dry. Kendrick The upper trough referenced above will depart east early Saturday with cool and dry northwest flow expected over the weekend.
High pressure will bring some patchy fog and cold temperatures through the weekend.
A transitory ridge of high pressure will be over the Northern Rockies today causing a decrease in shower activity. The higher terrain along the Montana/Idaho border will receive the brunt of the precipitation as Lookout and Lolo passes potentially getting 2 to 4 inches of snow by Saturday afternoon.
1135 AM CST Fri Dec 18 2020 Southerly winds increase through the day, bringing warmer air to the region.
1058 AM MST Fri Dec 18 2020 The positive tilt mid-level long wave trough was moving eastward over the forecast area early this morning. The trough will continue to track eastward this morning with its axis shifting east of the Continental Divide according to model consensus. Despite subsidence on the backside of the trough, residual moisture, instability and favorable northwest to north flow will continue to bring snow to the mountains along the Continental Divide well into the afternoon. Snow diminishes over all but the Elkhead and Park Mountains tonight as the trough moves farther eastward over the Plains.
352 PM EST Fri Dec 18 2020 Tranquil and dry conditions are expected through Saturday as an extensive north/south ridge of high pressure builds east and over the state.
This evening and overnight an upper level long wave trough will make its way through western Kansas with nothing more than some mid and high level clouds as it looks like the moisture near the surface will be minimal. Saturday with the trough exiting surface and lower level winds will switch back to the west-southwest allowing slightly milder air to return. With an approaching trough for Saturday night we could start to see a few upper level clouds approaching by late afternoon.
1120 AM CST Fri Dec 18 2020 Upper level low pressure trough axis and surface cold front will be moving east of our region through the afternoon. Behind the cold front, caa northwest winds have increased along with a slight fall in temperatures. A cold front will continue to move through the Dakotas this morning. Rising heights Saturday morning will quickly give way to another trough by afternoon as another front moves through. The period begins Saturday night with an area of low pressure and upper level trough crossing the region.
252 PM EST Fri Dec 18 2020 High pressure in control over the whole east coast with chilly temperatures in Florida. Another cold front will start to make its way across the county the next couple of days.
The lowest visibilities with the snow are across northern Minnesota with 1/4 mi vsby. The CAMs show and uptick in precipitation as the trough/upward motion increase this evening. Due to the warmer surface temperatures a mix is possible, but once the stronger lift occurs have it more snow. This will need to be watched as we are starting above freezing.
1053 AM EST Fri Dec 18 2020 A ridge of high pressure will build across the region today and Saturday bringing dry conditions and seasonably cool temperatures.
225 PM CST Fri Dec 18 2020 Well phased northern and southern stream positive tilt upper trofs will move eastward across the central CONUS tonight. The associated weak cold front will likewise progress southeastward with little fanfare from central across southeast Kansas.
Area temperatures have warmed into the lower and middle 30s under full sunshine. However, some very thin high cloud cover associated with a deep trough over the SW CONUS is just barely beginning to push into the area. The above noted trough will advance to the east during the course of tonight and during Saturday, with clouds on the increase. Warmer temperatures than the past few nights will also keep the precipitation in a liquid state, with low temperatures Sat night near 40.
The weak wave that is bringing this threat for light precipitation will move east of the area this evening, with colder air spilling in behind and a ridge of high pressure building at the surface. The cold air is short lived as a trough of low pressure swing by well to the north and brings southerly flow to the area. The trough moves through Saturday night which will bring an increase in westerly flow which will keep temperatures on the milder side, lows mainly teens to mid 20s.