Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
903 PM MST Thu Dec 31 2020 Other than a brief cold surge with gusty north winds on Friday, the short term period should remain dry with warmer than average temperatures across the central High Plains region. The first of a pair of upper low centers begins lifting out of the base of the upper trough over northern Mexico this afternoon. This low center continues to lift out across eastern Texas and eastern Oklahoma tonight and across far eastern Kansas and through northern Missouri on Friday as a second upper low center begins to follow a similar path along the U. Further to the west, a couple weaker short wave troughs move east of the central Rockies and across the central High Plains region on Friday night and Saturday night.
By Friday morning, a weakening lee-of-the Rockies surface trof will be working south and east of the CWA, turning winds around to the west-northwest briefly on Friday. High pressure builds in during the day, causing winds to gradually subside to calm or near calm. Friday night, the next installment of lee-side surface trof begins to deepen off to the west, signaling a switch in the winds back to a southerly or southwesterly direction. Late Saturday an upper trough passage will feature some cloud cover, very little lift so if any precipitation does occur, it won't be much more then an isolated sprinkle or flurry, and blended guidance has smoothed any precipitation out with this feature.
The cyclone center is over north central Texas and about to cross the Red River into Oklahoma early this morning. Weak return flow and full sunshine will result in slightly warmer high temperatures on Saturday, but close to normal for this time of year.
The mid level speed max associated w/ TX vort lobe is beginning to round the base of the trough, which will allow the trough to bec negatively tilted as it lifts NE tonight into Fri AM. This system will have an excellent tap to Gulf moisture, but it appears this will only aid in production of widespread convection, which will likely help "pull" the track of the trough a bit further SE than previously expected. Nrly winds and at least some high clds will probably lead to slightly cooler high temps for New Years Day, but overall, not too bad.
315 AM EST Fri Jan 1 2021 Periods of rain and showers will continue into the weekend, as a series of low pressure systems track east along a stalled frontal boundary.
Despite plenty of sunshine, recent snowfall will keep both daytime and nighttime temperatures on the cooler side of guidance. Overnight temperatures tonight will drop into the low to mid teens with daytime temperatures tomorrow rising only into the mid to upper 30s. A continued surge of warmer 850mb temperatures (2C to 6C) will allow surface temperatures to return to the 40s. These warmer temperatures should be able to melt off much of our snowpack from the most recent system. However, until the snowpack is completely melted, temperatures may be slightly cooler than guidance for both highs and lows.
High pressure will bring lighter winds and fair weather this weekend.
High pressure's influence will continue across the region as a weak frontal boundary is kept at bay across the FL Panhandle and extending southwestward into the Gulf. Our next cold front is forecast to be nearly stationary across the FL panhandle on Saturday while high pressure remains anchored over the western Atlantic.
324 AM CST Fri Jan 1 2021 Rain and freezing rain were ongoing across the region tonight as surface temperatures hovered around 32 degrees. These areas will have the highest POPS through today's period. A mix of snow, rain, and some freezing rain will be possible as wrap around precipitation tracks across portions of the Ozarks. For Saturday, another intense upper level low pressure system will approach from the southwest.
This will usher in slightly cooler air. This northerly flow may mix out the colder near the surface and result in slightly warmer temperatures across northern Colorado. The Denver metro area highs should be a few degrees cooler. Warmer temperatures should accompany this downslope flow. Seasonable day in store for Saturday as weak ridging briefly tries to build over the state. Across the mountains, cross-sections show some shallow moisture embedded in westerly flow aloft, so there could be a few snow showers across the higher mountains.
The cloud deck will be shallow enough to prevent the formation of freezing drizzle or flurries.
After a chance for some patchy freezing fog this morning, mainly dry conditions are expected through Saturday.
Meanwhile, the higher mountains near the Continental Divide can expect cloudy conditions and periods of snow and blowing snow.
Another cooler day on tap is in store across the region with a light northerly flow in place.
Welcome 2021!! The much awaited year will start of dry and cool as high pressure builds in from the west. West to northwest winds will gradually relax throughout the day today and remain light Saturday as the high pressure settles across the region. Drier and cooler air mass will keep high temperatures generally in the 50s today and Saturday with lows dipping into the mid 30s to low 40s at night. The remainder of the weekend will continue to be cool and dry, and this pattern will persist into the start of the upcoming week with weak high pressures generally in control across the area.
754 AM EST Fri Jan 1 2021 Meteorological conditions will become favorable for the development of sea fog this weekend as southerly winds around 15 knots advects moist air with low dewpoint depressions over relatively cooler Gulf waters.
BRB (Today and tonight) Satellite shows the center of the upper low over southeast Oklahoma, near Coalgate. The low is expected to continue moving north, then northeast away from our forecast area later today. On the northwest side of the low, snow is the dominant precipitation type, and some of it is rather heavy. Some light rain or freezing rain will be possible this morning in this general area before the precipitation ends later this morning.
The weak gradient remains in place for this New Year's Day and so it might be hard to scour out the low clouds and fog. With melting west into central today there could be a repeat of the low clouds and patchy fog for Friday night. The highest pops will be about 20 and the type, depending on when it falls, will be snow or rain.
We should manage to get above freezing in most areas, but that may depend on when the fog leaves and how much sun any particular location receives.
High pressure brings a return of dry weather and warmer temperatures for the weekend.
As the low lifts off to the north northeast through the day, winds will turn more westerly then northwesterly by tonight.
MVFR CIGS are expected to be most persistent at KAEX this morning, with improvement by afternoon as stacked low pressure over OK lifts out to the NE. As the low lifts off to the north northeast through the day, winds will turn more westerly then northwesterly by tonight.
West of I-65, drier and warmer conditions may arrive in time to spend a few hours outside. Cooler air returns quickly with high temperatures Saturday in the 50s.
A mature southern stream cyclone will track just close enough to the area to produce some light snow this afternoon into tonight. Issued 323 AM CST Fri Jan 1 2021 The main forecast issue this morning was fine tuning the snowfall potential with the mature cyclone passing southeast of the area late today and tonight. Low pressure tracking southeast of the region will bring snow to southeast WI this afternoon/evening, with associated IFR conditions. As the low exits to the east, gradually improving conditions are expected overnight. Issued 323 AM CST Fri Jan 1 2021 Winds and waves will increase over southern Lake Michigan today as the cyclone tracks toward Lake Erie.
SHORT TERM (Today through Saturday): Dry southwest flow aloft and high pressure across Texas will continue to provide subsidence across deep south Texas through the period. High temperatures will generally reach the low to mid 60s.
416 AM CST Fri Jan 1 2021 Upper level low pressure will track across MO today, with any precipitation associated with it remaining well southeast of our area.
547 AM CST Fri Jan 1 2021 Updated for 12Z aviation discussion 12Z TAF discussion: Flight conditions are improving across the region as drier air filters into the region in the wake of a cold frontal passage. Expect this cooler, drier air to continue to filter into the region as the deep upper low over East Texas ejects towards the northeast resulting in strong upper level flow across the lower MS River Valley.
425 AM CST Fri Jan 1 2021 (Today and tonight) Satellite shows the center of the upper low over southeast Oklahoma, near Coalgate. The low is expected to continue moving north, then northeast away from our forecast area later today. On the northwest side of the low, snow is the dominant precipitation type, and some of it is rather heavy. Some light rain or freezing rain will be possible this morning in this general area before the precipitation ends later this morning.
The upper low continues to lift off to the northeast across south central Oklahoma early this morning, and snow has pretty much ended across northern sections, except for a few flurries. A secondary upper low will track into far West Texas by this evening, then lift northeast the area tonight.
522 AM CST Fri Jan 1 2021 Main challenge/concern is changeover from liquid/freezing to frozen precip this morning across the headline areas. Latest short term models support mainly rain/freezing rain with light to moderate ice accums for areas southeast of the turnpike through 12z. However, as the upper low spins northeastward across eastern Oklahoma later this morning, dynamic cooling aloft is expected to support a changeover to snow. The upper low now over northern Mexico is still progged to lift northeastward across the southern Plains tonight before moving into the Ozarks on Saturday.
Upper level low moving north across southeast Oklahoma had a wrap- around shield of rain and snow that extended back into the southeast Texas Panhandle. Another upper level low moving across northern Mexico early this morning is expected to move positively tilted across far West Texas and then across the South Plains tonight.
Freezing rain accumulations have been reported in the Ozarks during the overnight hours early Friday. Temperatures are above freezing for the southern two thirds of the state this morning, and in some parts of northern AR. The higher elevated parts of north AR will warm above freezing shortly after sunrise. Ice accumulations less than a quarter of an inch are expected for much Ozarks overnight, nearing a quarter of an inch for the higher elevated areas.
406 AM MST Fri Jan 1 2021 High pressure has brought some patchy areas of low clouds and freezing fog along the International border and near the Montana North Dakota state line that should last through the morning of the New Year. The weak ridge will keep conditions dry today with periods of sunshine for northeastern Montana. A trough currently off the US west coast will pass through the region, increasing the potential for light precipitation and stronger winds this weekend. Once the sun sets, temperatures will cool to below freezing, and any POP and thus ptype will change over, but by then could be on its way into the Dakotas.
601 AM CST Fri Jan 1 2021 The upper low continues to lift off to the northeast across south central Oklahoma early this morning, and snow has pretty much ended across northern sections, except for a few flurries. A secondary upper low will track into far West Texas by this evening, then lift northeast the area tonight.
Expect this cooler, drier air to continue to filter into the region as the deep upper low over East Texas ejects towards the northeast resulting in strong upper level flow across the lower MS River Valley.
Dense fog had developed across a widespread area across eastern NE earlier this morning, and thus a freezing fog advisory was issued.
(Today and tonight) he upper low continues to lift off to the northeast across south central Oklahoma early this morning, and snow has pretty much ended across northern sections, except for a few flurries. A secondary upper low will track into far West Texas by this evening, then lift northeast the area tonight.
307 AM CST Fri Jan 1 2021 Dense fog had developed across a widespread area across eastern NE earlier this morning, and thus a freezing fog advisory was issued.
233 AM MST Fri Jan 1 2021 Other than a brief cold surge with gusty north winds on Friday, the short term period should remain dry with warmer than average temperatures across the central High Plains region. The first of a pair of upper low centers begins lifting out of the base of the upper trough over northern Mexico this afternoon. This low center continues to lift out across eastern Texas and eastern Oklahoma tonight and across far eastern Kansas and through northern Missouri on Friday as a second upper low center begins to follow a similar path along the U. Further to the west, a couple weaker short wave troughs move east of the central Rockies and across the central High Plains region on Friday night and Saturday night.
651 AM EST Fri Jan 1 2021 Precipitation will spread across the region ahead of a warm front. Low pressure and a cold front will follow this evening bringing additional showers.
530 AM CST Fri Jan 1 2021 First and foremost, from all of us at NWS Sioux Falls, we wish you a happy new year! We're starting 2021 off with a continuous stream of upper cirrus thanks to a large upper low spinning across the Ozarks. Today: A quiet day is anticipated for the region, as a stretched out low-mid level trough drops southeast. The combination of light winds, already present stratus, and low-lvl ridging should lead to higher confidence in fog development (some dense) into Saturday morning.
and Saturday Expect the low pressure system passing through the Upper Midwest to have a glancing blow on east-central WI this afternoon and evening, with only a dusting to a half inch of snow south of a line from Chilton to Two Rivers. Was getting some minor ice accumulation on area ASOS's early this morning, and had a report of slick roads in the Fox Valley, so issued a Special Weather Statement to account for the impacts of frost deposition and freezing fog. Would expect to see some improvement in the fog later this morning, but suspect the stratus will be more persistent, except over the higher elevations in the far north. After the low pressure system shifts east of the region tonight, high pressure will reestablish itself over the western Great Lakes into Saturday.
805 AM EST Fri Jan 1 2021 Periods of rain and showers will continue into the weekend, as a series of low pressure systems track east along a stalled frontal boundary.
The upper low responsible for this storm is moving off to the NE through Texas and into the Red River Valley. As this low exits the region this morning, temperatures will drop down into teens and low 20s areawide. This refreezing will make roads icy and slick and black ice may be present. Another trough will swing up from Mexico Friday night, however, no precipitation is expected due to limited moisture after the passage of the previous system. Strong west winds will develop on Saturday as this trough moves up into the Red River Valley. What doesn't melt will refreeze overnight Saturday as temperatures drop below freezing again.
Decided to upgrade the counties in this aforementioned area due to higher confidence in significant impacts from freezing rain, sleet, and snow. Discussion Model consensus is for a band of light to moderate freezing rain to move into the southern CWA early this morning, reaching the I-80 corridor a few hours later.
With that, plenty of low to midlevel clouds remain across the CWA this morning as strong inversions have set up trapping moisture in the lower portions of the atmosphere. Height rises will be on the menu today as high pressure builds in from the northwest. Amounts look to be negligible at best but there's an off chance maybe an inch of the white stuff at the highest elevations. By Saturday, a trough will drift eastward from Oregon and break down our ridge.
/issued 330 AM CST Fri Jan 1 2021/ SHORT TERM (Today through Saturday): Dry southwest flow aloft and high pressure across Texas will continue to provide subsidence across deep south Texas through the period. High temperatures will generally reach the low to mid 60s.
A mature southern stream cyclone will track just close enough to the area to produce some light snow this afternoon into tonight. Issued 323 AM CST Fri Jan 1 2021 The main forecast issue this morning was fine tuning the snowfall potential with the mature cyclone passing southeast of the area late today and tonight. Issued 323 AM CST Fri Jan 1 2021 Winds and waves will increase over southern Lake Michigan today as the cyclone tracks toward Lake Erie.
/issued 259 AM EST Fri Jan 1 2021/ The Florida peninsula is wedged between a strong area of high pressure over the western Atlantic and a strong low pressure system over the southern Plains. The low pressure system will lift rapidly northeast across the mid Missouri valley today. An associated cold front will push slowly across the western Florida panhandle today, but will become parallel to the U/L flow tonight and stall over that region with high pressure holding across the Florida peninsula with continued above normal temperatures under variably cloudy skies.
535 AM CST Fri Jan 1 2021 Upper level low pressure will track across MO today, with any precipitation associated with it remaining well southeast of our area.
959 AM EST Fri Jan 1 2021 Periods of rain and showers will continue into the weekend, as a series of low pressure systems track east along a stalled frontal boundary.
This wave should bring mainly mountains snow, but operations models all point to some potential for at least isolated showers crossing the lower elevations.
439 AM EST Fri Jan 1 2021 Precipitation will spread across the region ahead of a warm front. Low pressure and a cold front will follow this evening bringing additional showers.
650 AM EST Fri Jan 1 2021 Periods of rain and showers will continue into the weekend, as a series of low pressure systems track east along a stalled frontal boundary.
525 AM CST Fri Jan 1 2021 Lingering clouds behind the passing low pressure will keep most of the Four-States region in MVFR flight categories for low ceilings over the next 24-hours. The first low pressure in the double barreled regime we're staring down is slowly but surely pulling north, clearing the precipitation out with it. Fortunately, cloud cover will do a excellent job of keeping things insulated during the overnight hours, so we are not anticipating widespread below freezing overnight lows. Some areas may drop below freezing, but expect lows tonight to range in the mid to upper 30s.
Rain and freezing rain were ongoing across the region tonight as surface temperatures hovered around 32 degrees. These areas will have the highest POPS through today's period. A mix of snow, rain, and some freezing rain will be possible as wrap around precipitation tracks across portions of the Ozarks. For Saturday, another intense upper level low pressure system will approach from the southwest.
As the first upper low over eastern Oklahoma early this morning moves northeast today, the next upper low will move east across northern Mexico to northern Chihuahua and far West Texas. As the mid to upper level trough moves into northern Mexico this afternoon, south-southwesterly flow at 85H will increase over northeast Mexico into the Rio Grande Valley. NAM/GFS show an increase in moisture at the 295-300K layer reaching the southern Coastal Bend this afternoon with clouds likely affecting the coastal regions through tonight before isentropic downglide moves in early Saturday morning as the upper low moves northeast across the southern plains. Expect winds will be slightly elevated tonight as high pressure gradually builds into the region.
/issued 306 AM CST Fri Jan 1 2021/ A very pronounced warm front is lifting North across the Midsouth while a cold front is racing in from the West. Winds have already shifted from the West to southwest in Northwest Mississippi marking the passage of the cold front. Dry air wrapping around this low will bring at least a temporary end to rainfall for most of the western and half of the Midsouth, but a secondary round of wrap around showers is possible this afternoon. A transient ridge oriented from northwest Arkansas to central Mississippi this evening will shift to the Northeast overnight into early Saturday.
306 AM CST Fri Jan 1 2021 A very pronounced warm front is lifting North across the Midsouth while a cold front is racing in from the West. Winds have already shifted from the West to southwest in Northwest Mississippi marking the passage of the cold front. Dry air wrapping around this low will bring at least a temporary end to rainfall for most of the western and half of the Midsouth, but a secondary round of wrap around showers is possible this afternoon. A transient ridge oriented from northwest Arkansas to central Mississippi this evening will shift to the Northeast overnight into early Saturday.
A series of mid and upper-level disturbances along w/ associated surface reflections should promote a persistent area of low pressure over the northern high plains.
high clouds will remain over the area this morning before dissipating some this afternoon as a low pressure system in Oklahoma currently moves off to the northeast. Low temperatures fall into the low to mid teens.
The first low pressure in the double barreled regime we're staring down is slowly but surely pulling north, clearing the precipitation out with it. Fortunately, cloud cover will do a excellent job of keeping things insulated during the overnight hours, so we are not anticipating widespread below freezing overnight lows. Some areas may drop below freezing, but expect lows tonight to range in the mid to upper 30s.
Wind speeds will increase in the central zones tonight and in parts of NW WY as a lee trough develops and the pressure gradient increases ahead of a weather system.
(Today and tonight) Satellite shows the center of the upper low over southeast Oklahoma, near Coalgate. The low is expected to continue moving north, then northeast away from our forecast area later today. On the northwest side of the low, snow is the dominant precipitation type, and some of it is rather heavy. Some light rain or freezing rain will be possible this morning in this general area before the precipitation ends later this morning.
This high is responsible for fresh southeasterly breezes across the Keys. The southeasterly flow has brought in warmer and more humid air and temperatures are hovering in the mid 70s with dew points pushing above 70. Forecast - The high pressure off to our northeast will shift a bit southward over the next couple of days as a low pressure system migrates northeastwards through the eastern United States. Breezy winds early will become gentle to moderate Saturday night as a ridge axis shifts southwards closer to the Keys. Winds will shift south and slacken further later in the weekend another low pressure system moves northeastwards through the southeastern United States then out into the Atlantic, resulting in a col moving near the Keys.
Another concern this morning is patchy freezing fog in valleys where partial clearing has occurred. Widespread precipitation returns this evening ahead of a cold front set to arrive on Saturday morning. An increasing southerly gradient will help to keep many valleys mixed out with near to just above freezing temperatures but a light wintry mix is still expected. Road temperatures near freezing may lead to some icy spots into Saturday morning in more sheltered valleys. Increasing mid level winds will make for windy conditions on ridgetops with an occasional gust in the valleys.