Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
245 AM MST Sun Dec 22 2019 Upper ridge will drift to the east today and flow aloft turns to the SW. A weak and dry cold front will move south into NE Montana during the day today and temperatures will be not as warm as yesterday in some areas. Upper trough moves inland from the Pacific today and splits. A wave on the northern branch moves through Montana Monday and Monday Night with a weak cold front.
Slightly cooler conditions can be expected on Monday with highs in the 40s to around 50 degrees. STP Cooler weather settles in for the midweek period as a broad upper level trough drifts across the area.
upper trough over southeast Texas will keep unsettled weather for the area for the next 24 hours due to isentropic lift. a few on and off showers could linger into tonight and Monday morning as the low moves off to the east of the forecast area bringing residual wrap around moisture. Surface and upper level high pressure both will move into the area late Monday and continue through mid week.
These conditions will continue through much of the period, as a slow moving low pressure system moves across the region. The upper low will move into south Mississippi by this evening with wrap around precipitation continuing over most of the area into the overnight hours. As the upper low continues to move east into the Florida Panhandle, the wrap around precip will begin to become light after midnight and end from west to east early on Monday. High temperatures will be on the cool side on today, only climbing into the low/mid 50s.
Overall quiet conditions for the weather today as an upper level ridge continues to slowly move eastward from the desert southwest to the central plains. Afternoon highs should reach into the lower to mid 60s. Quiet weather continues into the start of the workweek as the upper level ridge will slowly move through the central and southern plains.
Much cooler on Monday with snow showers returning to most of northern and central NV.
06Z surface data has high pressure over the Ohio Valley with a weak boundary in the Plains.
The combination of an inverted trough to our east and a closed low to our west continues stream moisture northward from the Gulf this morning. The upper low to our west is fairly impressive in the GOES-16 water vapor this morning. As the upper low pulls further off to the east on Monday, we'll be in a northerly boundary layer flow and with clouds expected on the backside of this system until late Monday afternoon, I've decided to remain slightly below guidance for highs. However, what will be 50s on Monday will quickly become 60s on Christmas Eve and even warmer for Christmas.
With near freezing temperatures in north central and southwest Oklahoma, some patchy freezing fog will be possible. Trending toward the cooler NAM for fog impacted areas (especially north central Oklahoma). Monday through midweek will see above average temperatures (possibly tempered by fog) before the next system begins to move in with cooler temperatures and decent precipitation chances.
242 PM CST Sun Dec 22 2019 An upper level low pressure system will continue to bring rain and drizzle to areas along and south of I-40 through Monday morning.
100 PM EST Sun Dec 22 2019 High pressure will maintain tranquil weather over Pennsylvania through most or all of the upcoming work week.
This southwesterly flow is downstream from a longwave trough which has taken up residence along the Pacific Coast.
Look for similar temperatures today, but record highs were a bit warmer compared to yesterday, so not many records in jeopardy. Slightly cooler conditions can be expected on Monday with highs in the 40s to around 50 degrees. STP Cooler weather settles in for the midweek period as a broad upper level trough drifts across the area.
145 PM CST Sun Dec 22 2019 A low pressure system is moving out of our area through the rest of the day today. High pressure will build over the area Monday evening through Sunday. Winds will be predominatly northerly and easterly for the beginning of the week, which will allow cooler and stable air to flow into the region.
High pressure will remain over the eastern United States through the middle of the week. With high pressure over the region, dry conditions will prevail with little cloud cover and light southwest winds through Monday. The short term begins Monday night with high pressure across the area.
1040 AM EST Sun Dec 22 2019 High pressure will maintain tranquil weather over Pennsylvania through most or all of the upcoming work week.
1013 AM CST Sun Dec 22 2019 An upper level low pressure system is currently located near New Orleans, Louisiana. Rain from the upper low continues to rotate from Northeast Mississippi to the I-40 corridor. Current readings are in the middle 40s across the region with dew points in the low to middle 40s. Warmer temperatures look to be here to stay for a while, perhaps for the remainder of the decade, though guidance beyond 7/8 or the last couple of days of the year varies considerably. A cutoff upper level low over Northeast Texas has begun to move south along the Louisiana state line.
At times there could even be some freezing fog and all roads will likely be wet from dew so caution overnight into the morning should be taken when driving through the mid morning with a dense fog advisory out until 10AM.
Large high pressure spanning from the middle Atlantic States into the Ohio Valley is expected to dominate Indiana's weather through much of this week.
255 PM CST Sun Dec 22 2019 Dry conditions and warmer temperatures continue to be ushered into the region. Heading into the start of the holiday week, dry conditions will prevail and warmer temperatures continue to flow into the Midwest. Dry conditions continue into mid-week, as another upper level High pressure ridge creeps back toward the area beginning Monday night. this will hold the warmer southerly airflow, and increased temperatures, in place through the holiday. The GFS has the Low core track through the mid-Mississippi River Valley, bringing rainfall to a majority of the region.
347 PM EST Sun Dec 22 2019 High pressure south of the area gives way to a cold front Monday night.
251 PM EST Sun Dec 22 2019 Updated at 215 PM EST Sun Dec 22 2019 An upper level low positioned squarely over Louisiana will continue its eastward progression to the FL panhandle by Monday evening. Cloud cover over southern KY will create an obvious gradient in minimum temperatures Monday morning with southern Indiana dropping to the low to mid 30s and south central KY in the low to mid 40s. But clearing skies and light northeast winds will allow for Monday max temps to range from the mid to upper 50s across southern Indiana and into the lower 60s across south central KY. Weak ridging at the surface and aloft will work to keep us dry for much of the upcoming week.
Pretty quiet conditions tonight through Monday as a weak/dry cold front makes its way south into the region. Beside this and a wind shift, another warmer than normal day on tap with highs in the mid-30s to mid-40s.
1112 AM CST Sun Dec 22 2019 Forecast Summary: Mild temperatures are forecast the next few days before cooler air settles into the region, but only dropping highs back toward normal for mid to late week.
A weak cold front will drop into parts of northeast NE late tonight into Monday morning, but then this will probably wash out Monday afternoon.
/issued 513 AM CST Sun Dec 22 2019/ /12Z TAFS/ Occasional visibilities down to 1/2 mile in freezing fog and LIFR ceilings at KABI and KBBD through mid morning. Have high temperatures cooler in the upper 50s in eastern sections due to morning fog and stratus, with highs in the upper 60s to 70 from the I-10 corridor north into the Concho Valley. Tonight, with clear skies and south winds 10 mph or less, good radiational cooling conditions will again prevail with lows at or slightly below freezing. (Monday through Sunday) Deep upper trough begins to take shape across the Western US by mid week.
222 PM EST Sun Dec 22 2019 High pressure will maintain tranquil weather over Pennsylvania through most or all of the upcoming work week.
The combination of an inverted trough over the southern states and a closed upper low over the Lower Ms Valley will continue to stream moisture northward from the Gulf through the day. Farther north, very light showers will spread up to I-40, but the rain will probably not make it to the Ky border as it encounters a fairly deep layer of dry air in the lower atmosphere. As the upper low pulls further off to the east on Monday, we'll be in a northerly boundary layer flow and with clouds expected on the backside of this system until late Monday afternoon. A ridge will develop quickly for Christmas Eve and Day with high temperatures jumping into the 60s and perhaps some lower 70s if there is enough sunshine.
For Monday, the warm and dry weather will continue with upper level ridging just east of the area, partly cloudy skies, and south to southwest surface winds of around 10 mph.
A weak upper level trough will bring a little rain and mountain snow tonight into early Monday.
Breezy and mild until Pacific cold front comes through tonight. Front will bring a chance of snow showers to northern mountains, but will weaken in the south as the upper trough splits tonight off the coast.
1047 AM CST Sun Dec 22 2019 Today will be dry and pleasant (for December standards) as the ridge aloft moves overhead. Cooler air returns to the region late Sunday night into Monday as a cold front moves through. Quiet and cooler conditions are expected to start off the week. Southwesterly flow aloft brings different disturbances over the Plains ahead of the main upper-level trough over the western coast.
Noting that readings yesterday arrived on the warmer side of model guidance, will again lean in this direction and bring highs into upper 40s to lower 50s - or a solid 15 degrees of above average. Northern expanse of upper ridging anchored across the plains will nose into the region tonight and Monday. Associated thermal trough - defined by 925 mb temperatures of 12C - will take residence during this time.
238 PM CST Sun Dec 22 2019 A progressive and amplified upper level ridge will continue working east tonight and tomorrow.
A weak cold front is set to arrive Monday afternoon from the north, which will bring slightly cooler conditions and some partly cloudy skies to the region.
Therefore, the High Wind Warning has been cancelled. WV/IR imagery shows broad mid-to-upper level clouds across much of the western US ahead of deep trough off the CA coast. A ridge axis currently centered over the west-central US along with strong warm air advection will yield anomalously warm temperatures again today. The warmest areas will be the higher elevations above a stout inversion. As such, will continue the High Wind Warning for the northern Black Hills/foothills and have extended the wind advisory until 3PM for the southern foothills. Later this week upper flow begins to break down as upper trough will pivot into the central US around by Christmas Day.
Some clouds will increase south of the I-70 corridor as a Low pressure system lingers in the se US, enhancing moisture flow northward today. Once a vigorous upper low currently over east Texas skirts eastward along the Gulf Coast, upper heights will rise across the Midwest. Highs on Monday will be in the lower to middle 50s.
Monday will be a warm and sunny day with afternoon highs reaching into the upper 60s and lower 60s as an upper level ridge builds across Texas. With mostly clear skies and light winds lows for Christmas Eve morning will once again fall into the 30s area wide, but freezing temperatures are not expected.
Many locations still managed to reach the low 60s. We are expecting increased cloud cover and a cold front to start nudging into the area on Monday. This will make it a few degrees cooler than today, especially in northern portions of the area. The next system has continued to trend weaker, and the cold front is slower to move through the area.
338 PM EST Sun Dec 22 2019 High pressure will remain over the eastern United States through the middle of the week. The unseasonably mild and quiet weather will continue with high pressure in control of our weather pattern. Mostly clear to fair skies will continue for our Monday with high temperatures back in the lower to middle 50s. A weak cold front or wind shift will move across the area Monday evening but no impactful weather is expected.
150 PM CST Sun Dec 22 2019 A ridge over the eastern half of the United States is keeping the Quad State dry and much warmer than average. Lows will be closer to freezing Monday night due to reduced cloud cover and light winds. Confidence remains high in our above normal temperature forecast that includes the Christmas holiday, as the model consensus continues to show a strong s/wv ridge will move over the area through mid week, followed by broad southwest flow aloft over much of the CONUS, keeping our heights on the high side of normal.
950 AM MST Sun Dec 22 2019 WV/IR imagery shows broad mid-to-upper level clouds across much of the western US ahead of deep trough off the CA coast. A ridge axis currently centered over the west-central US along with strong warm air advection will yield anomalously warm temperatures again today. The warmest areas will be the higher elevations above a stout inversion. As such, will continue the High Wind Warning for the northern Black Hills/foothills and have extended the wind advisory until 3PM for the southern foothills. Later this week upper flow begins to break down as upper trough will pivot into the central US around by Christmas Day.
259 PM CST Sun Dec 22 2019 A cold front will move from the northwest to the southeast tonight bringing a cooling trend and increasing clouds but we expect dry weather, to the region. On Monday, cooler temperatures are forecast, with highs from around 20 northeast to around 40 southwest. Cooler, but actually near normal temperatures, are expected to last through Christmas week.
Lows tonight were lowered a few degrees to the lower 20s eastern panhandle into southwest Nebraska. On Monday, increasing high cloudiness and very weak mixing will attributed to cooler high temperatures in the low to mid 50s, with some upper 50s possible central Sandhills and southwest. A large upper trough will move inland from the West Coast as deep southwest flow aloft exists across all of the Plains States.
The GOESEast Nighttime Microphysics RGB depicts an expanding fog and stratus bank across northwest and far north central North Dakota behind a cold front that has nearly cleared all of western and central North Dakota as of 2330 UTC. A cold front will move from the northwest to the southeast tonight bringing a cooling trend and increasing clouds but we expect dry weather, to the region. On Monday, cooler temperatures are forecast, with highs from around 20 northeast to around 40 southwest. Cooler, but actually near normal temperatures, are expected to last through Christmas week.
946 PM EST Sun Dec 22 2019 A low pressure at the mid and upper levels looked impressive on satellite imagery as it continues to spin over LA/MS tonight. It is forecast to move east overnight while it pushes eastward a cold front towards the FL peninsula. And the High Surf Advisory remains in effect through another high tide cycle expected later tonight.
514 PM CST Sun Dec 22 2019 Dry conditions and warmer temperatures continue to be ushered into the region. Heading into the start of the holiday week, dry conditions will prevail and warmer temperatures continue to flow into the Midwest. Dry conditions continue into mid-week, as another upper level High pressure ridge creeps back toward the area beginning Monday night. this will hold the warmer southerly airflow, and increased temperatures, in place through the holiday. The GFS has the Low core track through the mid-Mississippi River Valley, bringing rainfall to a majority of the region.
A weak cold front will move across the region towards the end of the current TAF period and result in winds switching to the W/NW. Forecast confidence is high: Quiet weather will continue tonight, with a cold front dropping south through southern Wisconsin on Monday. Above normal temperatures will continue Monday, though cooler overall and coolest in the north as the cold front moves through.
Still no precipitation expected as all the abundant moisture is in the high levels of the atmosphere while the low levels are very dry.
Where there isn't snow, temperatures have warmed into the lower to middle 50s compared to the 40s where there is snow over south central Illinois. Lows tonight will only fall into the low 30s tonight, so with the warm start tomorrow, expect highs to reach a few degrees warmer than today. Britt Still expect unseasonably warm days on Christmas Eve and Christmas Day as both the operational and ensemble GFS/ECMWF runs continue to show a large ridge over the central CONUS through midweek.
Other than a window for radiation fog tonight into early Monday morning (mainly along the southern Coastal Bend and adjacent plains), an upper ridge will keep skies clear until tomorrow afternoon once cirrus begins spilling over the ridge.
An upper ridge continues to gradually build east with cirrus clouds advecting up and over the ridge.
Southeast winds in the 12 to 15 knot range with some higher gusts early this evening will become southwest around 10 knots after 06Z, then shifting to the west and increasing to 12 to 15 knots with higher gusts between 09-12Z from KSRQ north, and between 12-14Z across the southwest terminals as the cold front moves south through the region.
Radar imagery this evening shows light rain continues across the southeastern two-thirds of Middle Tennessee on the north side of an upper level low along the Gulf Coast.
Air temperatures remain chilly under the in the wrap around moisture in the lower 50s.
A ridge over the eastern half of the United States is keeping the Quad State dry and much warmer than average. Lows will be closer to freezing Monday night due to reduced cloud cover and light winds. Confidence remains high in our above normal temperature forecast that includes the Christmas holiday, as the model consensus continues to show a strong s/wv ridge will move over the area through mid week, followed by broad southwest flow aloft over much of the CONUS, keeping our heights on the high side of normal.
Low/mid level ridge axis will shift more to our east during the day Monday which should allow fog to dissipate a bit earlier compared to today.
A forecast update is in place for slightly warmer lows tonight. Lows tonight were lowered a few degrees to the lower 20s eastern panhandle into southwest Nebraska. On Monday, increasing high cloudiness and very weak mixing will attributed to cooler high temperatures in the low to mid 50s, with some upper 50s possible central Sandhills and southwest. A large upper trough will move inland from the West Coast as deep southwest flow aloft exists across all of the Plains States.
/issued 242 PM CST Sun Dec 22 2019/ An upper level low pressure system will continue to bring rain and drizzle to areas along and south of I-40 through Monday morning.
Some of this lower cloud cover may drift to the west closer toward SHV with brief MVFR/low VFR cigs possible. Air temperatures remain chilly under the in the wrap around moisture in the lower 50s.
232 PM MST Sun Dec 22 2019 Upper ridge axis that brought warm temperatures over the weekend will move east tonight. On Monday, will see a prefrontal trough move across the area with winds shifting to the northwest.
Pacific cold front will come in late tonight, and Monday will be significantly cooler. The upper trough will dig southward off California tonight then shift inland Monday.
315 PM MST Sun Dec 22 2019 A cold front has brought some cooler weather to the Hi-Line and north-central Plains, but elsewhere it remains mild for late December.
Clear night skies in an upper ridge and light variable winds will again enhance radiational cooling, with little expected change of the surface moisture/dew points. For Mondays temperatures as the ridge axis will be overhead, we went a little bit warmer than the previous forecast across our west. However, the denser fog lingering later in the morning across the remainder of our area may keep temperatures slightly cooler there.
GOES-16 Water Vapor satellite trends this evening place an upper level low near Jackson, MS. KNQA/KGWX WSR-88D radar trends show stratiform rain wrapping back into the north side of the upper level low into North Mississippi and portions of West Tennessee. Short term models indicate this upper level low will begin to move ESE away from the forecast area on Monday. /issued 242 PM CST Sun Dec 22 2019/ An upper level low pressure system will continue to bring rain and drizzle to areas along and south of I-40 through Monday morning.
Updated at 215 PM EST Sun Dec 22 2019 An upper level low positioned squarely over Louisiana will continue its eastward progression to the FL panhandle by Monday evening. Cloud cover over southern KY will create an obvious gradient in minimum temperatures Monday morning with southern Indiana dropping to the low to mid 30s and south central KY in the low to mid 40s. But clearing skies and light northeast winds will allow for Monday max temps to range from the mid to upper 50s across southern Indiana and into the lower 60s across south central KY. Weak ridging at the surface and aloft will work to keep us dry for much of the upcoming week.
A 500mb ridge axis is building into the Southern Plains this afternoon with northerly winds aloft. Overnight tonight into tomorrow, the next trough will be entering the western CONUS with the leading edge over the forecast area and southwest winds aloft. Temperatures are rising into the upper 60s and approaching the lower 70s for some of the forecast areas.
With the large area of high pressure across the area and upper ridging aloft and some very shallow moisture near the surface could again see some fog develop late tonight and Monday night.
A trough of low pressure off the West Coast will continue to bring high clouds to Arizona tonight.
628 PM EST Sun Dec 22 2019 High pressure south of the area gives way to a cold front Monday night.
/22/ Tonight and Monday: The strong mid/upper level low pressure system will continue to swing east southeast through the region tonight, finally becoming positioned east of the region Monday.
900 PM EST Sun Dec 22 2019 High pressure will maintain tranquil weather over Pennsylvania through most or all of the upcoming work week.
Forecast confidence is high: Quiet weather will continue tonight, with a cold front dropping south through southern Wisconsin on Monday. Above normal temperatures will continue Monday, though cooler overall and coolest in the north as the cold front moves through.
/issued 238 PM CST Sun Dec 22 2019/ A progressive and amplified upper level ridge will continue working east tonight and tomorrow.
928 PM EST Sun Dec 22 2019 High pressure will persist over the Mid-Atlantic through Monday night while low pressure passes to the south. A backdoor cold front will drop south out of New England during the middle of the week. A cold front may approach from the Ohio Valley late in the week. There's also a chance that freezing fog could form. Lows overnight tonight will range from the low-mid 30s in the major cities, to the 20s in outlying areas.
We continue to see warmer than normal temperatures across the area with the exception of the Snake River plain where a shallow inversion will keep temperatures near normal.
Bigelbach PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: Upper ridge will drift to the east today and flow aloft turns to the SW. A weak and dry cold front will move south into NE Montana during the day today and temperatures will be not as warm as yesterday in some areas. Upper trough moves inland from the Pacific today and splits. A wave on the northern branch moves through Montana Monday and Monday Night with a weak cold front.
606 PM EST Sun Dec 22 2019 High pressure will maintain tranquil weather over Pennsylvania through most or all of the upcoming work week.