Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Area of widespread light to moderate rains continues across SE OK in vicinity of remnant MCV which lies within a larger scale mid level trough axis currently traversing the forecast area. Widespread cloud cover is limiting destabilization and this trend is expected to remain in place as the trough axis pushes eastward through the afternoon. Widespread showers and scattered storms remain the most representative forecast for SE OK through western AR today with only isolated thunder potential west of the trough axis across NE OK through the afternoon.
330 PM CDT Sat Jun 20 2020 A few isolated showers have tried to pop up across the Midsouth as temperatures climbed into the low 90s, however a ridge centered just East of the Mississippi River has suppressed most convection just as we thought it would. Farther West, on the west side of the ridge, showers have been slightly more numerous, mainly over the Missouri Bootheel. Rain chances will increase tonight area wide as the ridge shifts East and is replaced with a trough moving in from the West. This feature is associated with the trough mentioned earlier.
355 PM EDT Sat Jun 20 2020 A large ridge of high pressure will continue to produce hot weather into midweek.
Models soundings indicate that subsidence effects associated with the upper ridge will likely suppress convection today, although a few showers/storms will manage to develop this afternoon mainly over the southern portion of the area along the sea breeze. Lows tonight range from around 70 inland to the lower 70s at the coast.
242 PM EDT Sat Jun 20 2020 Upper level ridging and warmer temperatures will be over the region for much of the weekend along with chances of mainly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms.
There is a small chance of a strong or marginally severe storm south of highway 10 during the late afternoon or early evening hours in the vicinity of the warm front.
This will bring along a weak cold front, which will help spark some showers and thunderstorms, mainly during peak heating.
1212 PM EDT Sat Jun 20 2020 Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon along the ridges this afternoon. Any activity over the ridges will wane this evening.
As for temperatures, lows tonight are expected to dip into the low to mid 60s with highs tomorrow reaching into the low 90s.
1010 AM CDT Sat Jun 20 2020 Updated POP and temps this morning to account for the cooler temps behind the outflow boundary now near DWH. Adjusted max temps down 2 to 3 degrees across most areas with mid/high cloudiness and a cooler start across some areas.
Scattered showers will continue along the ridges until temperature falls below convective thresholds this evening. A quiet night will follow with high pressure building in the wake of the persistent, and now exiting low.
1148 AM EDT Sat Jun 20 2020 Scattered to isolated showers and thunderstorms will prevail through Saturday, as a broad upper trough remains slow to exit the area. Pesky upper trough over the area will finally move out during the forecast period. Highs today will be in the low to mid 80s again with mid 80s to around 90 on tap for Sunday. Low amplitude ridge in the mid levels for most of the period.
1247 PM CDT Sat Jun 20 2020 Overall synoptic pattern depicts a trough early this morning moving east into the Mississippi Valley, putting us into an area of subsidence and decreasing sky cover, allowing temperatures to rebound to higher temps than yesterday. I can't say my confidence is the highest here, but I will side with the NAMnest and confine POPs to the northern third of the CWA, possibly clipping Grand Island for a brief time. Convection will fire along the front and perhaps ahead of the dry line/trough as well.
NBM, ensemble, and deterministic guidance all suggest that after a cooler than average start to the week we will warm each day through the end of the month.
357 PM CDT Sat Jun 20 2020 Mostly cloudy conditions prevail across the region this afternoon as an upper level trough is passing through. Another short wave of cyclonic vorticity advection will move across northern Minnesota tonight in association with a broad upper level trough. This will combine with a cold front to introduce the chance for some scattered showers and perhaps a few rumbles of thunder late tonight into early Sunday morning.
/ISSUED 1010 AM CDT Sat Jun 20 2020/ Updated POP and temps this morning to account for the cooler temps behind the outflow boundary now near DWH. Adjusted max temps down 2 to 3 degrees across most areas with mid/high cloudiness and a cooler start across some areas.
203 PM EDT Sat Jun 20 2020 An area of showers with an embedded thunderstorm did develop today along the Cuban land breeze boundary in the Florida Straits, but dissipated as it approached the lower Florida Keys. The mid and upper trough which had been sitting along the US east coast is progressing eastward. As this moves off the mid Atlantic coast, the Atlantic ridge will slowly begin to build back over the Florida peninsula with the axis well north of the Keys.
As instability increases (MUCAPE 600 to 1200 J/KG) and under a weak upper level low centered just to our southeast, showers and thunderstorms will increase in coverage area with the greatest concentration of storms across the inland hills of SW NYS. Tomorrow will be a similar day, with the upper level low becoming concentrated off the mid-Atlantic coastline. It will be slightly warmer aloft, with 850 hPa temperatures a degree or so warmer.
750 PM EDT Sat Jun 20 2020 The upper low responsible for the cold, wet, and cloudy weather this past week will finally move offshore tonight.
Heights start to increase Sunday as upper ridge builds offshore.
Upper level cut-off low remains nearly stationary over Saskatchewan/Manitoba region. Surface analysis also shows a N-S oriented trough over central ND.
/issued 330 PM CDT Sat Jun 20 2020/ A few isolated showers have tried to pop up across the Midsouth as temperatures climbed into the low 90s, however a ridge centered just East of the Mississippi River has suppressed most convection just as we thought it would. Farther West, on the west side of the ridge, showers have been slightly more numerous, mainly over the Missouri Bootheel. Rain chances will increase tonight area wide as the ridge shifts East and is replaced with a trough moving in from the West. This feature is associated with the trough mentioned earlier.
Showers and storms will develop over the higher terrain and some may move over the plains and survive long enough to drop some light rain or gusty winds. Temperatures will be similar to today with highs in the mid-80s across the plains and 50s to 60s in the high country. A weak cold front/northerly push will move through Sunday night with cooler temperatures and slightly better moisture moving in behind it.
As for temperatures, lows tonight are expected to dip into the low to mid 60s with highs tomorrow reaching into the low 90s. A trough of low pressure at the surface will remain nearly stationary across eastern Colorado and northwest Kansas which will result in the winds staying south southeast at 10 to 15 knots overnight. Clouds at or above 6000ft AGL level will be on the increase after 18z Sunday as an upper trough approaches from the west.
After activity ends by around midnight skies will become mostly clear to partly cloudy with southerly flow continuing around the Atlantic ridge. Lows will drop into the lower to mid 70s.
Drier conditions by Sunday afternoon as weak ridging builds into the area.
We've bumped up the low temps a couple degrees to account for this. Showers and storms will develop over the higher terrain and some may move over the plains and survive long enough to drop some light rain or gusty winds. Temperatures will be similar to today with highs in the mid-80s across the plains and 50s to 60s in the high country. A weak cold front/northerly push will move through Sunday night with cooler temperatures and slightly better moisture moving in behind it.
643 PM CDT Sat Jun 20 2020 An upper level trough over the eastern Plains will move east into the Mississippi Valley by 12Z Sunday morning. Original thinking for the past couple of days was that the combination of this afternoon's/evening's convection and the upper level trof would be push the front to the southeast down across southern Missouri or northern Arkansas. This will mean it should be warmer and more humid than originally forecast. The warm and humid air could produce a few afternoon thunderstorms, however short range guidance is showing some weak low level short wave ridging moving through the Mid Mississippi Valley which looks like it will suppress convection. Carney The upper level low currently over south central Canada is forecast to deepen and drift southeast into the northern Great Lakes Region by midweek.
341 PM MDT Sat Jun 20 2020 The stalled weather pattern continues to direct off-and-on chances for scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms on the southwestern periphery of the larger-scale upper level low pressure trough over the Canadian prairie.
755 PM EDT Sat Jun 20 2020 Upper level ridging and warmer temperatures will be over the region for much of the weekend along with chances of mainly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms.
A cold front was located between Baker City and Ontario, and it extended northeast toward McCall and west-southwest to just east of Burns. Tomorrow will be 2 to 4 degrees cooler than today.
An upper trough will dig into the region this evening. As the trough lowers heights/temps aloft, 50 dbz height for severe hail will also lower. Best chances this afternoon may be where CU has formed along the Missouri River, and then with the sfc front/trough as it moves east. More than half of the models are indicating significantly cooler temperatures with some not even putting northern SD in the 70s. Went middle of the road for the new forecast keeping most places in the low to mid 70s for highs. The period starts out with upper level low pressure mainly over western Ontario.
652 PM CDT Sat Jun 20 2020 Mostly cloudy conditions prevail across the region this afternoon as an upper level trough is passing through. Another short wave of cyclonic vorticity advection will move across northern Minnesota tonight in association with a broad upper level trough. This will combine with a cold front to introduce the chance for some scattered showers and perhaps a few rumbles of thunder late tonight into early Sunday morning.
Sunday will be a similar day, with the upper level low becoming concentrated off the mid-Atlantic coastline. It will be slightly warmer aloft, with 850 hPa temperatures a degree or so warmer.
While the theme of the going forecast still remains valid, the main adjustment made was to slow the progression of the higher PoPs into southeast OK thru 12Z.
Although it was warm and humid and mostly dry under this ridge, one or two rogue showers managed to pop this afternoon. Temperatures are mostly on track; they may end up being a little warmer for some if the cloud cover is thick enough, but confidence is not high enough to make significant adjustments.
646 PM CDT Sat Jun 20 2020 For the ArkLaTex terminals, a short wave upper low has a line of shwrs/TS stretching from b/t KELD/KMLU and down to near KLFK.
High pressure building over the region will provide hot and dry conditions with afternoon breezes each day for much of the coming week.
/issued 228 PM CDT Sat Jun 20 2020/ An upper level trough is centered over southern Canada and extends southward into Texas. The upper trough axis will move east of the area on Sunday, and the dryline will be pushed to the far eastern Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos.
Strong high pressure aloft will provide hotter than normal daytime temperatures during the upcoming week.
/EC/ Weak ridging at the surface continues into this evening. but the upper level ridge axis is slipping to the east.
A quiet night is on tap with continued mid/upper ridging across the TN and OH Valleys. Think some patchy fog is on tap for the northern valley again tonight, especially given slightly cooler temperatures and the presence of some additional rainfall today.
Ridging over the West Coast now taking hold and becoming the dominate feature as heat will be the big issue for the coming week.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: The stalled weather pattern continues to direct off-and-on chances for scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms on the southwestern periphery of the larger-scale upper level low pressure trough over the Canadian prairie.
/issued 145 PM EDT Sat Jun 20 2020/ A closed low aloft is moving over the mid-Atlantic region as upper ridging builds to the west of Florida. High pressure will remain over the region for the next several days, with light winds turning onshore with the sea breeze each afternoon.
857 PM EDT Sat Jun 20 2020 Low pressure along the Mid Atlantic Coast will move east and offshore tonight. A transition to a much warmer weather pattern is expected the next several days, although accompanied by a daily threat of afternoon evening thunderstorms. Wind flow aloft will become southwesterly promoting much warmer daytime temperatures. Attm think the best coverage for showers will be over the mountains along and west of the Blue Ridge with somewhat lower chances east of Lynchburg and Danville. Warmer temperatures also suggest potential for isolated strong to severe deep convection. Ridging aloft is expected over the southeastern U. for early week with a trough in the north-central CONUS. This trough is forecast to progressively move east with time, the associated surface front reaching the eastern seaboard by mid-week.
The first day of summer continues with very warm to hot conditions, with 2 PM temperatures ranging from the mid 80s higher elevations to the lower 90s. An upper trough that caused cooler conditions earlier in the week continued retreating further to the east, along the Mid Atlantic seaboard. Short amplitude upper ridging was building in from the west. The ridging and warmer temperatures aloft, despite the formation of cumulus and a few towering cumulus have not really yielded more than a couple of short lived showers (that occurred in the late morning).
Britt An upper level trough over the eastern Plains will move east into the Mississippi Valley by 12Z Sunday morning. Original thinking for the past couple of days was that the combination of this afternoon's/evening's convection and the upper level trof would be push the front to the southeast down across southern Missouri or northern Arkansas. This will mean it should be warmer and more humid than originally forecast. The warm and humid air could produce a few afternoon thunderstorms, however short range guidance is showing some weak low level short wave ridging moving through the Mid Mississippi Valley which looks like it will suppress convection. Carney The upper level low currently over south central Canada is forecast to deepen and drift southeast into the northern Great Lakes Region by midweek.
Tomorrow will be a similar day, with the upper level low becoming concentrated off the mid-Atlantic coastline. It will be slightly warmer aloft, with 850 hPa temperatures a degree or so warmer.
1024 PM EDT Sat Jun 20 2020 Deep mean layer ridging centered near the Antilles stretches west to the Eastern Pacific, with a subtle weakness in the mid-upper level ridging near the Yucatan Channel. Surface observations and analyses place a fractured western Atlantic ridge axis across Florida into the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Temperatures are in the lower to mid 80s with dewpoints in the mid 70s. East-southeasterlies (~10 knots through the lower troposphere) will build across the islands overnight, which would favor a nocturnal regime (~09Z) of increasing coverage across the Straits.
Cold front is pushing its way into the Cascades this evening with a few showers lingering behind it. Drier conditions by Sunday afternoon as weak ridging builds into the area.
201 AM MDT Sun Jun 21 2020 Upper level analysis shows closed upper low centered in western Manitoba, slowly moving eastward. Weak q-vector convergence and lingering moisture on the southern periphery of the Canadian upper low continue to support isolated showers and a few rumbles of thunder this morning. Weak cold air advection will result in slightly cooler temperatures Monday with upper 60s to mid 70s expected for highs.
and Monday The region will be in between two low pressure systems for much of today, with dry weather and warm temperatures expected for most of the day. Rain chances will increase from west to east tonight as a cold front approaches the region from the west.
1250 AM CDT Sun Jun 21 2020 The forecast challenge is pops as the upper low over south central Canada is slow to move east through Monday. At 2 PM CT the surface analysis showed a trough extending southwest from over the northwest sandhills to the Sidney. Tonight low temperatures will drop into the 50s throughout with a few locales in eastern Boyd, Holt and Wheeler counties in the lower 60s by daybreak. Sunday into Sunday night an elongated area of low pressure will extend from the northern into the central plains.
The general setup through the short term portion of the forecast will include west to northwesterly flow at the H500 level provided by a persistent area of low pressure over southern Canada. With sfc ridging to the SE, the MCS should diminish as it works its way into the state.
/Today through Monday Night/ Nw flow pattern continues across our region, as longwave trof axis remains fixed across the central CONUS.
High pressure building over the region will provide hot and dry conditions with afternoon breezes each day for much of the coming week. Colorado River Valley obs were staying about 4- 5 degrees warmer than the forecast trend so adjusted up accordingly.
A MCS should organized over central Kansas as storms develop and congeal along a cold front. Leftover showers and storms will then remain possible into Monday morning as a mid-level short wave trough and broad low-level jet will be in place across the region. Additional thunderstorm potential then exists for Monday afternoon and Monday evening as a cold front pushes southeast across the area.
251 AM EDT Sun Jun 21 2020 Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb closed low near Lake Winnipeg this morning embedded in a trough over the northern plains into the upper Great Lakes. The trough remains over the area through 12z Mon. Blocking continues with a quasi-rex block over central Canada to start the extended. The associated upper level low pressure will take all week to move from southern Manitoba to just south of the Hudson bay. Deterministic model runs showing ridging building into the region thereafter as the next slow moving trough sets up over the Pacific Northwest. After somewhat drier air comes into place behind the cold front Sunday morning precipitable water values recover to around 1.
In addition, another perturbation moving through the flow will help to enhance chances for showers and thunderstorms on Monday with the highest chances for showers and thunderstorms across northern Georgia. An upper trough anchored over the Great Lakes deepens into the southern Appalachians through the end of the week.
Weak mid level ridging will build across the area today. Lower dewpoints and warmer temperatures aloft will allow surface temperatures to rise to near or above 100 degrees area wide. As far as thunderstorm chances go today, with much warmer temperatures and extra lift from the dryline chances should be better today than yesterday. Any storm that does develop will have very high cloud bases above 10,000 feet AGL which will also be near the freezing level. /WCI By Monday morning, a trough extending southwest from an upper lower low across western Ontario will be swinging through the northern plains. Ridging exists west of the low followed, further west, by an Aleutian low.
As discussed previously, the upper level ridge is shifting eastward, and this is bringing an end to the recent dry weather pattern. /EC/ Prior discussion below: The upper level ridge axis is slipping to the east.
422 AM EDT Sun Jun 21 2020 Upper level ridging and warmer temperatures will be over the region today.
Periodic showers and thunderstorms will be possible throughout the short term period as several perturbations rotate around an upper low situated over southern Manitoba.
TAF sites are VFR right now, but if the high clouds can break up and clear we might get some MVFR/IFR ceiling development overnight.
A short wavelength ridge will dominate locally through the day keeping us warm and dry. Expect highs to climb into the low to middle 90s area-wide.
Thunderstorms are possible today, mainly for portions of the region along and south of I-94 as a cold front continues slowly southward. Additional showers and embedded thunderstorms are possible along the International Border in association with an advancing H5 vorticity max following the cold front.
/19/ As discussed previously, the upper level ridge is shifting eastward, and this is bringing an end to the recent dry weather pattern. /EC/ Prior discussion below: The upper level ridge axis is slipping to the east.
SHORT TERM (Now through Monday): Weak 500 mb troughiness will continue to prevail along the Texas coastline during the period. With the 500 mb troughiness in place and mid-level high pressure retrograding from central Mexico to west of the Baja Peninsula, daytime high and overnight low temperatures should prevail in the near normal range for the rest of the weekend into the coming week.
311 AM EDT Sun Jun 21 2020 Currently seeing mostly clear skies and quiet conditions across our area as the region remains under the influence of weak ridging aloft. This ridge axis will slowly begin to push eastward over the next several hours while a MCV near Arkansas simultaneously advances NE toward the region. instead having the ridging stay strong enough to keep the afternoon dry! Given the available moisture in the region.
Weak mid level ridging will build across the area today. Lower dewpoints and warmer temperatures aloft will allow surface temperatures to rise to near or above 100 degrees area wide. As far as thunderstorm chances go today, with much warmer temperatures and extra lift from the dryline chances should be better today than yesterday. Any storm that does develop will have high very high cloud bases above 10,000 feet AGL which will also be near the freezing level. /WCI By Monday morning, a trough extending southwest from an upper lower low across western Ontario will be swinging through the northern plains. Ridging exists west of the low followed, further west, by an Aleutian low.
Very flat ridge, almost zonal flow, over the Great Basin will persist through the short term period.
With the upper low remaining in place across southern Canada into Monday, cool temps aloft associated with this low will continue to promote steep lapse rates.
230 AM MDT Sun Jun 21 2020 Ample cloud cover persist overnight, bringing about a warmer night than what we've experienced the past few days, with lows only reaching the mid to upper 50s. A small low pressure system will still be present in far SE Montana and NE South Dakota during the day on Monday that will result in lingering light to moderate rain showers in far SE Montana, an area that desperately needs the moisture. Vertz Drier northwest flow ensues behind the stubborn upper low over Canada as it moves east and fills.
212 AM CDT Sun Jun 21 2020 Wx map shows weak high pressure ridging across the Gulf, providing a light southeast flow across the coastal waters, with nearly calm winds inland. Temperatures across the region in the mid to upper 70s, a little warmer than yesterday at this time.
355 AM CDT Sun Jun 21 2020 Early this morning, some light rain showers were ongoing in southwest North Dakota, along and slightly behind a surface cold front draped just across the state line in northern South Dakota, curving up through eastern North Dakota. Much cooler today in the wake of the aforementioned cold front, with highs ranging from the upper 60s to the mid 70s. Expect similar temperatures as today, with northwest flow aloft as the upper low moves off slightly to our northeast and becomes centered over western Ontario.