Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
323 AM EDT Tue Jun 1 2021 High pressure over the area today will result in fair weather and seasonable temperatures.
With the base of the mid level trough moving off to the east today, rising heights will allow temperatures to climb into the 80s for most areas this afternoon.
Temps a bit warmer than yesterday but still slightly below normal. This in tandem with weak WAA and a coastal trough of low pressure will allow for increasing rain chances from SE to NW tonight and especially Wed.
After the fog clears early this morning expect a fairly nice day across the area, with more sun, and a bit warmer temperatures than we experienced yesterday. Cooler conditions in the 60s are expected near the lake due to the development of onshore winds associated with an afternoon lake breeze. Also, with lower chances for precipitation, temperatures for Wednesday could end up a bit warmer than previously thought, especially over northern IL, where some inland spots away from the cooling effects of Lake Michigan could approach the 80 degree mark.
The HRRR/RAP drop dewpoints into the low 50s and keep convective temperatures higher than the GFS/NAM, which have richer BL moisture and realize an albeit token degree of upright instability. Based on this scenario, did introduce low-end PoPs for this afternoon, but confidence is on the lower side for precipitation, and even lower for thunderstorms.
157 AM EDT Tue Jun 1 2021 High pressure builds across the area tonight, then moves off the mid Atlantic coast on Tuesday. High pressure shifts farther offshore Wednesday as a warm front moves into the area.
A narrow 500 mb ridge axis extends from near Panama City to Tifton this afternoon and has helped to suppress convection, despite a 10-degree rise in surface dewpoints over the last 24 hours. The ridge axis will slip southeast on Tuesday and should extend from near Cross City to the Georgia Coast. Further west, an isolated shower or thunderstorm is possible along the Panhandle seabreeze front on Tue afternoon, where modest height falls are expected as the narrow mid-level ridge slips well southeast of the Panhandle.
To the north, conditions were dry as the rain was having a difficult time winning over a deep layer of dry air in place from high pressure ridging over the east central U. Further off to the north, a cold front was analyzed from eastern South Dakota to north central Wisconsin. An additional rain shower or isolated storm will be possible this evening mainly along and north of Hwy 20, as the cold front slowly approaches the area. The presence of surface ridging, near-calm winds and added boundary layer moisture from rain showers will increase potential for patchy fog tonight, with focus primarily on I-80 south. With the warming temps and high pressure building in, we could see conditions become favorable for summer-like afternoon storms.
203 AM CDT Tue Jun 1 2021 With high clouds blanketing the area this morning, temperatures are noticeably warmer than they have been the last few mornings. However, this is expected to change over the next 24 hours as the ridging that brought us a fantastic couple of days slips off to the east.
113 AM EDT Tue Jun 1 2021 High pressure will settle over the region resulting in fair and seasonable conditions through Tuesday.
This were being generated by a northern stream upper trough moving through the Great Lakes. As this upper trough moves east during the early morning hours, forcing will weaken north, ending the sprinkles. However, believe the forcing will be weak enough and the low levels dry enough that nothing will reach the ground. During the remainder of the day, a larger upper trough to the west will begin to deepen as it moves slowly east, causing heights to fall across the area. During the night tonight, pieces of energy will move through the still approaching upper trough, providing broad scale forcing. On Wednesday, the upper trough axis will get closer, and broad scale forcing will continue across the area from the trough. With the high moisture content, locally heavy rain will be possible.
The local area remains under influence of an upper ridge of high pressure (for now) centered over the Gulf of Mexico. Subsidence from that ridge will keep storms from developing with the potential exception along seabreeze boundary. The upper ridge nearby will retreat southeastward while a trough deepens across the midsection of the country, extending from the Great Lakes to central Texas. Falling heights from the trough combined with increasing moisture and strong daytime heating will allow for local widespread convective development. Rain chances will increase from west to east with time on Tuesday as the trough starts its movement into the region. The increase coverage will also mean highs will be a degree or 2 cooler than earlier in the week. Stayed with NBM, which was slightly cooler than previous forecast.
Fog may develop late tonight as surface ridging remains over the forecast area with light winds. The forecast turns warmer and drier for the remainder of the week with midlevel ridging building into the Plains.
1123 PM MDT Mon May 31 2021 Upper northwest flow continues over the area today and Tuesday as the ridge continues to strengthen over the western CONUS. Temperatures will begin warming in earnest Tuesday as the ridging builds further, with highs over 5 degrees above normal at many locations. The strong ridge axis over the western US moves eastward during the day to Idaho into Montana, keeping the surface pressure gradient rather weak and decreasing moisture.
244 AM EDT Tue Jun 1 2021 High pressure lingers just offshore of the mid-Atlantic coast through midweek.
A few showers and thunderstorms are possible east of the state line as the mean upper trough over the Plains begins to shift east to the Mississippi River. With increasing cloudiness as the precipitation pushes east over the Lower Mississippi River valley, upper 0s to around 90 are expected east of I-65, with low to mid 80s west and along the coast.
1222 AM EDT Tue Jun 1 2021 Showers and thunderstorms are likely mid to late week with the slow passage of a low pressure system. Moist advection within developing southwest flow ahead of a central plains trough will generate mid-high level clouds through the period.
Aloft, a positively-tilted longwave trough will slowly shift eastward across the Rocky Mountains into the Great Plains by the middle of the week, steering multiple embedded disturbances through the area with southwesterly flow. Temperatures will remain near or just below average for this time of the year with lows in the middle to upper 60s and highs in the lower 80s. Thickening cloud cover and precipitation will initially moderate the diurnal curve before slightly cooler air arrives by Tuesday night. Expect highs generally in the low to mid 80s with lows in the mid to upper 60s. This disturbance should bring a weak cold front into the area, but will likely not get much south (if at all south) of I-20 before stalling.
211 AM CDT Tue Jun 1 2021 An upper level short wave trough remains nearly stationary connecting a northern stream trough over southwestern Ontario to a cutoff low over Baja California. The proximity of this trough to the forecast area will cool mid level temperatures and destabilization of the air mass as temperatures warm later today. Northwesterly flow aloft and modest southeasterly low level flow across the western part of the forecast area as surface ridging moves east into northwest and north-central Texas feeding moderately unstable air (1000-2000 J/kg progged CAPE) should set up a favorable environment for an organized MCS to make it well into the forecast area overnight tonight. The axis of the mid/upper-level trough will begin to pivot eastward into the lower-middle Mississippi River Valley late Wednesday, with northwesterly deep-layer flow overspreading the CWA.
Looking at the mid and upper-levels, positively-tilted troughing is in place across the central CONUS, and has been the main driver for cooler temperatures in the local area. The aforementioned trough is expected to drive precipitation chances farther south into Kansas today, with areas in Nebraska and Iowa expected to stay dry through the day. Looking forward in the forecast, the positively tilted trough over the area is expected to progress eastward, with the central CONUS transitioning to a broad ridging pattern through the rest of the forecast period.
Meanwhile, a building upper ridge over the central Conus will be responsible for a return to near (and eventually, above) normal temps. An increase in mid-level moisture is notable on IR and WV imagery early this morning and is approaching the Pine Ridge. For max temps, blended in some warmer guidance to account for early sunshine and weak WAA at H85. Weak WAA continues at H85 with temps pushing 15C north central and 20C panhandle, about 2C warmer than today. The synoptic pattern becomes dominated by an amplifying upper ridge over the Western US that then broadens and encompasses much of the Eastern US. The newest extended range guidance suggests highs in the lower to mid 90s for parts of the Sandhills this weekend and upper 80s for everyone else.
Tonight Through Wednesday Deepening H500 trough will slowly progress eastward across the middle of the country in the coming days. Much of Arkansas will be on the eastern edge of the trough through the period and as numerous impulses round it base and lift north, widespread showers and thunderstorms will develop across the area.
221 AM MDT Tue Jun 1 2021 Upstream ridge begins to strongly influence the area today into Wednesday as it positively tilts into the region with 500mb heights climbing above 580DM this afternoon. Flow over the ridge is a bit dirty with high level moisture over BC expected to flow across the region today.
1023 PM MDT Mon May 31 2021 Latest surface analysis shows high pressure over the eastern Dakotas/Nebraska with a weakly defined area of low pressure over central Montana/western Wyoming, tightening the surface pressure gradient and creating breezy southerly winds over the forecast area.
310 AM EDT Tue Jun 1 2021 Showers and thunderstorms are likely mid to late week with the slow passage of a low pressure system. Moist advection within developing southwest flow ahead of a central plains trough will generate mid-high level clouds through the period.
Today Through Wednesday Night Scattered showers continue to lift ne across the CWA early this Tue morning downstream of a larger-scale upper trough to the west of the state. A weak upper level disturbance is moving NE towards the state early this morning downstream of this larger upper trough to the west. Chances for SHRA/isolated TSRA will continue beyond tonight as the parent upper trough to the west/NW will keep sending disturbances NE over the state through Wed afternoon/evening.
Water vapor imagery highlights dry and sinking air along the low's western flank, giving way to rising and diffluent motion along its eastern flank. At the surface, high pressure centered just to the south of the Delmarva reaches southwest across North Florida. Weak cyclonic curvature in the low levels stretches northwest into the Bahamas from eastern Cuba. The storms which rolled off the Mainland last evening spread to the west across the Gulf-side waters of the Lower Keys, missing most of the island chain. It appears occasional rounds of lift and deep convection underneath the core of the upper low are inducing weak inverted troughs along the southern flank of the low-level ridge.
128 AM EDT Tue Jun 1 2021 High pressure centered over the area will move off to the mid- Atlantic coast tonight.
With the dry atmosphere and winds dropping off in the evening, lows will fall into the lower 50s. While some cumulus can again be expected to develop - especially near Hwy 14 in southwestern Minnesota - it is unlikely any of the high-based cumulus that are able to produce rain will see it reach the ground.
A warm front extends southeast of the low across northwest to southeast SD. Highs will be in the 70s to around 80 degrees on the plains, with 60s over the higher Black Hills. The rest of the week will see the warming trend continue, with hot conditions by the end of the week, as positively tilted ridge over the western US gradually builds east across the Rockies and into the Plains.
421 AM EDT Tue Jun 1 2021 High pressure will ridge across the area at the surface as an upper low lingers over the SE FL coast through mid-week and then settles south through the end of the week as it weakens. Weak upper ridging then builds over the area for the weekend through the end of the period. High pressure ridges across the area at the surface keeping E/SE flow in place through the period.
Overall, it was a warm day for areas across portions of western Washington today, with afternoon highs making it into the low 80s for areas primarily Seattle southward. An upper ridge will give Western Washington warm sunny weather through Wednesday.
1247 AM EDT Tue Jun 1 2021 High pressure builds across the area tonight, then moves off the mid Atlantic coast on Tuesday. High pressure shifts farther offshore Wednesday as a warm front moves into the area.
SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday): A 500mb long wave trough continues to dig southward out of the Rockies/Plains into Texas early this morning. Also, a weakening mid-level ridge currently prevails over central/northern Mexico with a cutoff low over the Baja. A series of 500mb short wave troughs upstream will move into deep south Texas through the period. Another short wave trough is expected to develop over Mexico and move into South Texas later this evening into tonight. Highs today and Wednesday are expected to range from the lower 80s at the beaches and the mid/upper 80s to lower 90s inland due to the increase rain chances and cloud cover.
The main trough axis appears to clear the CWA by peak heating, so not thinking any convection will be particularly widespread as subsidence begins to work into the area.
(Issued 257 AM CDT Tue Jun 1 2021) Today through Wednesday: A quiet morning is underway today, with early morning temperatures in the low to mid 50s. Cooler temperatures and breezy east winds can be expected behind the boundary. The only exception may be the far north and northwestern fridges of the forecast area, where a few showers or storms could develop along the remnant cold front (which is located just to our northwest). Temperatures look to be a touch warmer on Wednesday, with most of the area in the upper 70s to around 80.
549 AM MDT Tue Jun 1 2021 Upper ridge building over the west coast will spread east through the week.
413 AM CDT Tue Jun 1 2021 Today and Tonight: Today will mark an end to the nice cooler and drier weather we experienced this past holiday weekend, and the start of a more summerlike warm and wet pattern. Looking at early morning water vapor satellite imagery, the presence of an elongated trough can be seen stretching from the Great Lakes across much of the central and western CONUS toward the Baja Peninsula where an upper-level low is spinning. On the eastern side of this trough, deeper moisture is streaming northeast across our region.
A dry subsident airmass was noted across the region this morning on the northwestern periphery of the aforementioned upper low with Raob data showing a PW of less than an inch and very dry air noted above 10 KFT. As the day continues the upper low is forecast to drift slowly south-southwest as high pressure persists to the northeast with a low level east-northeast wind flow expected across the forecast area. High pressure just offshore the mid Atlantic coast and extending southwest across the southeastern states and north Florida will maintain east-northeast winds in the 10 to 15 knot range with sea of 2-3 feet over the Gulf waters the remainder of today with an onshore sea breeze component developing along the coast during the afternoon.
Despite the cloud cover, warm air advection from southerly winds (as well as some peeks of sunshine this morning) should be enough to warm temperatures into the low to mid 80s by this afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms will expand in coverage overnight into the scattered to numerous categories as the aforementioned upper-trough draws closer. A better chance for showers and storms will exist late Wednesday morning into Wednesday afternoon as a surface cold front will poke into the area.
Northerly flow aloft continues today along the front side of the building western US ridge.
718 AM EDT Tue Jun 1 2021 Showers and thunderstorms are likely mid to late week with the slow passage of a low pressure system. Moist advection within developing southwest flow ahead of a central plains trough will generate mid- high level clouds through the period.
625 AM EDT Tue Jun 1 2021 Fair weather continues through Tuesday under high pressure. High pressure should gradually continue to pull away from the area, while an upper trough located across the central portion of the country gradually begins to shift eastward towards the region with impacts by Wednesday morning. Went on the lower side of guidance for high temperatures today, with low to mid 70s for lower elevations, and 60s across the higher terrain. Low temperatures will be warmer, with upper 50s to low 60s across the lower elevations, and 50s across the higher terrain. Deepening upper trough across central U.
/NF/ Today and Tonight: Today will mark an end to the nice cooler and drier weather we experienced this past holiday weekend, and the start of a more summerlike warm and wet pattern. Looking at early morning water vapor satellite imagery, the presence of an elongated trough can be seen stretching from the Great Lakes across much of the central and western CONUS toward the Baja Peninsula where an upper-level low is spinning. On the eastern side of this trough, deeper moisture is streaming northeast across our region.
/issued 341 AM CDT Tue Jun 1 2021/ SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday): A 500mb long wave trough continues to dig southward out of the Rockies/Plains into Texas early this morning. Also, a weakening mid-level ridge currently prevails over central/northern Mexico with a cutoff low over the Baja. A series of 500mb short wave troughs upstream will move into deep south Texas through the period. Another short wave trough is expected to develop over Mexico and move into South Texas later this evening into tonight. Highs today and Wednesday are expected to range from the lower 80s at the beaches and the mid/upper 80s to lower 90s inland due to the increase rain chances and cloud cover.
Overnight, a weak cold front will edge down across I-30 and help to bring in some slightly cooler and less humid air. Short term temps will be cooler, but close to average.
903 AM EDT Tue Jun 1 2021 High pressure will remain just offshore today, and then migrate farther offshore through mid week. More unsettled weather is expected thereafter and into the weekend as a weak trough remains over the Southeast US. High pressure will slowly shift further offshore through tonight while remaining slightly to the north of the area. Mostly sunny skies, and increasing low level heights will lead to highs reaching the low 80s inland, with upper 70s likely closer to the coast, and low 70s expected along the Outer Banks and Inner Banks due to cooler onshore flow. High pressure offshore will slide south tonight, allowing for winds to veer to the SE, with increasing surface moisture. Entering a moist pattern through most of the period with high pressure pushing offshore and a trough approaches the region from the west.
929 AM EDT Tue Jun 1 2021 A ridge of high pressure lingers over the area today.
1012 AM EDT Tue Jun 1 2021 High pressure off the North Carolina coast this morning, will lift northeast this afternoon.
In addition the pesky cold front is going to move into the northern CWA this afternoon and will probably become a focus for some garden variety storms driven primarily by daytime heating and fortunately should dissipate with the loss of heating but the coastal storms may not.
As we step back and look at the overall pattern, we see a strong upper level ridge of high pressure that extends from the Hawaiian islands northeastward to the Pacific Northwest coast this morning. During the past couple of afternoons, isolated mountain convection has developed south of this ridge mainly over the Sequoia National Forest. The atmosphere should become more stable over this region during the next 48 hours as the center of the upper level ridge shifts southward over the Golden State.
Although overall temperatures will be slightly cooler on Tuesday, be prepared for another warm to hot day as the upper level ridge only gradually weakens. Despite some cloud cover early this morning it is relatively compressed thanks to high pressure overhead. High pressure remains over the region on Wednesday, but it continues to gradually weaken. By the end of the work week high pressure is replaced by a trough of low pressure moving in from the NW. The trough will bring further cooling with below normal temperatures.
638 AM EDT Tue Jun 1 2021 A ridge of high pressure lingers over the area today.
A mid-level trough is working across the area this morning while another system organizes in the Northern Plains. 2) Warmer and more humid later in the week and beyond.
An upper ridge positioned across the area through Wednesday with warm, sunny weather.
The approach and ultimate passing of a mid and upper level trough currently over the Plains will keep the weather over the Quad State rather unsettled throughout the short term period. The greatest concentration of showers and the highest QPF will be over western portions of southeast Missouri, where over an inch of rain could fall. This will turn winds to the southeast over west Kentucky which will allow for an increase in low-level moisture, and a bit better shear, as the southwest flow aloft increases ahead of the trough.
719 AM EDT Tue Jun 1 2021 Unsettled weather returns by mid week with crossing low pressure, with dry and warmer conditions prevailing this weekend. High pressure should support another dry day across the region, with warm, moist swly flow promoting near-average temperature values despite extensive cloudiness.
With high clouds blanketing the area this morning, temperatures are noticeably warmer than they have been the last few mornings. However, this is expected to change over the next 24 hours as the ridging that brought us a fantastic couple of days slips off to the east.
608 AM EDT Tue Jun 1 2021 High pressure over the area today will result in fair weather and seasonable temperatures.
Short Term Update - The upper level trough will meander southwards into the central Bahamas this afternoon. This along with day time heating over Florida should help to maintain the broad lower level trough across our area. High pressure across the eastern United States and Atlantic will maintain moderate easterly breezes across Keys waters through the afternoon period.
/issued 421 AM EDT Tue Jun 1 2021/ High pressure will ridge across the area at the surface as an upper low lingers over the SE FL coast through mid-week and then settles south through the end of the week as it weakens. Weak upper ridging then builds over the area for the weekend through the end of the period. High pressure ridges across the area at the surface keeping E/SE flow in place through the period.
High pressure will continue today, with temperatures across the region warming another 5 degrees or so from yesterday.
As this is occurring, lift is beginning to increase as the upper jet noses in from the west and vorticity along the leading edge of the trough moves in as well. Warmer overnight lows due to the increasing southerly flow and cloud cover.