Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
/issued 541 AM CST Mon Dec 5 2016/ A large upper level low pressure system over northern Mexico will lift northeast across the Lower Mississippi River Valley through Tuesday morning.
221 PM CST Mon Dec 5 2016 Models are pretty close on moving out the closed low over sw Texas and bringing an open wave across the area. High pressure behind the system will be the first true Arctic airmass to affect our region this season.
1122 AM CST Mon Dec 5 2016 A mild but breezy day is expected today ahead of a vigorous upper low moving through the northern Plains this evening and tonight. Earlier arrival of the cold air advection associated with the brisk northwest flow will likely cap temperatures cooler in south central SD.
But an upper trough will broaden/deepen over the central U.
As we go into the day on Monday, we will edge out one day with well above average temperatures for early December as south to southwest flow will advect some warmer temperatures with highs ranging from the lower to mid 60s. This will be followed by a cold front that will move through the Panhandles late Monday night and clear south out of the Panhandles by Tuesday morning. In the wake of the cold front, temperatures will drop to below average.
As the upper jet moves in, winds in the high country will be on the increase early this morning. As daytime mixing gets underway, winds will also increase across the lower elevations, spreading from west to east. Across the lower elevations, top speeds should be about 40 mph. So far this morning, the highest gust I've seen has been 62 mph from the Cottonwood Pass sensor, southwest of Buena Vista.
231 PM EST Mon Dec 5 2016 Upper low pressure within southern stream will open as it lifts from the Rio Grande Valley today to the Tennessee Valley midday Tuesday. Inverted troughing between this low pressure and the main northern stream low well to the northwest will then pivot northeast through the region Tuesday evening and bring the small chance of additional scattered light showers to parts of the area.
This boundary should make it off the coast but return as a warm front during the day Wed ahead of the much talked about stronger front that's on its way. Assuming this occurs and winds diminish inland, areas along and north of I-10 will see 4-9 hours of freezing temps as a 1040mb high settles into N Tx.
Toward morning, temperatures will be near freezing in the north central areas briefly, and so will be slight chance of freezing rain. High pressure building into Illinois from the Plains Tuesday night will provide continued clearing of low clouds from west to east during the evening, along with some colder air.
Stratus deck with MVFR ceilings from 1000-1500 feet persists over much of South Texas but visible satellite imagery shows breaks occurring along the Rio Grande as drier air in the mid to upper levels of the atmosphere south of the upper low has finally worked its way into the lower levels.
328 PM EST Mon Dec 5 2016 An area of low pressure aloft is forecast to move out of the southern Plains/western Gulf coast region this evening, and will be our primary weather maker through tomorrow night.
Temperatures should be able to warm into the low 50s on Tuesday afternoon.
Forecast focus on clouds, fog and possible light pcpn mix followed by a cold front on Tuesday. A trough digging southeast into the Midwest later tonight, and deepening cyclone in northern MN, will bring a band of forcing into our far nw cwa. Tuesday: This forcing will lift quickly northeast away from the cwa early in the morning followed by a cold front pushing southeast across the cwa.
Temperatures were in the upper 30s to the lower 40s. Did lower highs slightly based on the cloud cover with afternoon highs in the lower 40s in the north with mid-upper 40s in the south. For today, expect a cloudy start with the low level moisture trapped within an inversion between 800-900 mb. The highest chances for widespread steady rain will be mainly after midnight through around noon Tuesday.
Next system to move into from the south, will bring more moisture and clouds as a low pressure center moves into the OH valley. Weak high pressure over OH will move off to the east, as the low center moves into TN/KY by Tues morning. High pressure ridge is over southeast IL/southwest IN early this morning and this will continue to move east through the day. Precip should be primarily rain, but as surface temps decrease to near freezing in the north, rain or freezing rain will be possible. Based on temps and forecast soundings, the freezing rain chances, though in the 20pct category, will be mainly in areas east and northeast of I-74. Overnight lows in the north will be at or just below freezing, while central and southeast areas will be warmer, in the middle to upper 30s.
Earlier updates adjusted for fog expansion which has recently lifted with stratus deck now expanding northward in advance of the upper low over south TX.
1139 AM CST Mon Dec 5 2016 IFR conditions should slowly improve this afternoon as the upper low moves across the central part of the state. The low ceilings may linger to between 06Z and 08Z before skies clear over most of the area.
Strong, but dry cold front will reach the northern zones around 6 pm.
A large low pressure system moving slowly across the Great Lakes into New England will send a cold front, and more seasonal temperatures across the region late in the week. This low will bring another round of precip to the area from sw to ne.
1017 AM MST Mon Dec 5 2016 Upper level analysis shows broad troughing over much of the northern CONUS, with closed lows over Mexico and Saskatchewan. At the surface, low pressure and the cold front are moving into far western SD. Upper trough will move across the Dakotas today. Snow has begun across northeastern WY and the Black Hills this morning, and will expand into the western SD plains as the cold front moves through. Temperatures will range from the low 20s across northeastern WY and northwestern SD, to the 30s across south central SD.
Meanwhile, water vapor imagery shows the pesky upper level low has now opened up into more of a wave and is located over Central Texas, moving off to the east-northeast. A dry slot wrapping around just ahead of the upper low has been moving across Southeast Texas and into Southwest and West Central Louisiana.
333 PM CST Mon Dec 5 2016 Arctic cold front continues to push across the area this afternoon. Even strong winds just to the west in the western panhandle of Nebraska due to the higher elevation.
Winds may pick up for a time behind the cold front. which should mainly impact the high ridges north of Douglas. Winds over the I-80 summit and near Bordeaux in Platte county continue to decrease, thus the 8 am ending to the high wind warning looks on track. Could have likely dropped the high wind warning earlier, though would prefer to err on the side of caution. Attention then turns to the approaching strong cold front expected to pass west to east with steady or slowly falling temperatures in its wake this afternoon. Much colder air will continue to filter into the region in the wake of the initial cold front and will trend towards the colder guidance low temperatures.
244 PM CST Mon Dec 5 2016 Strong cold front moving through the area this evening.
A cold front will make its way through the state Tuesday morning bringing NW winds with it. Based on VSBY trends this mrng, went ahead and issued Dense Fog/Freezing Fog Advy for roughly the NRN half of the FA thru 9 AM this mrng. Rain chcs wl dcrs quickly fm the SW late tngt and Tue mrng as the storm sys heads into the lower Ohio Valley region.
1225 PM EST Mon Dec 5 2016 High pressure over the Middle Mississippi Valley will slide east across the Lower Great Lakes today. The high will drift into New England Tuesday. allowing a low pressure system to track across the upper Ohio Valley. The ridge of high pressure will move East of the forecast area this evening and move into New England by late Tuesday.
145 PM MST Mon Dec 5 2016 The primary interest in the short term period is the drop in temperatures following the initial cold front expected to sweep quickly through the area this evening. The cold front will bring colder temperatures and gusty northwest winds, but no precipitation as the area will be under an area of mid level subsidence with a dry airmass in place in the wake of a short wave trough aloft tonight.
256 PM CST Mon Dec 5 2016 The upper level low that brought rain to the area to start the weekend is on the move this afternoon, crossing the Rio Grande around Del Rio/Eagle Pass and will track toward East Texas this evening. In addition, an upper low will dig southeastward over the Dakotas.
Moisture continues to increase tonight ahead of low pressure that will lift northeast from the western gulf coast region. Latest meso model runs trending toward the higher rain chances in local area holding off until late night and have trended PoP timing this way. The warm southwest flow will keep low temperatures well above early Dec normals in the lower 70s. Local area will be in the warm sector early Tues as low pressure lifts toward northeast from TN/AL region around daybreak. High temperatures expected to climb into the low to mid 80s. Low level northwest flow Wed will be reinforced by late Thu afternoon with stronger pressure gradient from high pressure building southeast from the Plains.
300 PM EST Mon Dec 5 2016 An are of low pressure aloft is forecast to move out of the southern Plains/western Gulf coast region this evening, and will be our primary weather maker through tomorrow night.
The surface cold front will move across the southeast and over Florida tonight and into Tuesday. The next trough will then move across the central and eastern U.
320 PM CST Mon Dec 5 2016 A mid-level low/trough will continue northeast across southern and eastern Texas this afternoon and evening. However, some model soundings suggest very low clouds and some fog may develop this evening as winds decrease ahead of a cold front. As the initial cold air arrives tonight and early Tuesday, any dense fog will dissipate, but low clouds may linger for several hours behind the cold front. As another trough moves across the northern Rockies on Tuesday, some of this air will move quickly southward into the northern part of the country.
The southward progression of a trough is stalled across the northern Gulf Coast while an area of high pressure moves slowly eastward over the Atlantic. An upper low is spinning over Montana with a reinforcing trough crossing the Pacific Northwest.
A cold front will stall across central Utah this afternoon and further weaken. Morning water vapor and H5 analysis continue to depict a broad long wave trough encompassing much of the northern CONUS this morning, anchored by a parent upper low over Saskatchewan. A progressive short wave clipped northern Utah earlier this morning surging a strong but relatively dry cold front south along the Wasatch Front bringing light snow and gusty winds, but a marked clearing trend is occurring N-S over the north under rapidly rising MSLP and post front subsidence. Focus of shift moving forward shifts upstream to the next upper low (currently over southern Britcol) and the short term forecast details regarding the next round of snow tomorrow afternoon, and the coldest temps of the season come midweek.
Low temps tonight will be in the single digits and teens across southeast and south central CO, with portions of the San Luis Valley and some of the higher mtn areas probably seeing single digits below zero.
High pressure to the southest will continue to move away from the region as low presure moves across MN. Winds stay 5 to 10 knots overnight with this pressure gradient, but due to the low level moisture in place and fresh snow, it looks like fog will stick around thorugh the night. Fog will create slippery conditions on untreated roads with temperatures near or below freezing. An upper low moves across MN with sheared vorticity brushing the northern CWA. During the day a cold front moves through. There is a small chance for freezing drizzle and snow north and west of Madison in the morning. The GFS shows a partial loss of ice crystals resulting in freezing drizzle while the NAM shows snow.
323 PM CST Mon Dec 5 2016 Deep closed upper low over south TX movg ne into east TX this eve, and then becmg an open wave and quickly movg thru cwa late tonight, bringing one more shot of rain into the area. No thunder activity currently over central TX in assoc with this low. Therefore have left tstm out of fcst for overnight hours as stg low lvl inversion in place, despite modest elevated instability with the low. Upper flow becmg zonal in wake of this low and will continue as such for next svrl days.
An upper trough will dig in to the Plains tonight, bringing a reinforcing shot of cold air.
246 PM CST Mon Dec 5 2016 Surface cold front was approaching northeast Nebraska at 20Z stretching from eastern South Dakota through the southwest corner of Nebraska into northeast Colorado.
352 PM CST Mon Dec 5 2016 The upper low responsible for our recent bout of rainy weather is churning east through the Texas Hill Country and will skirt our southeastern zones this evening. The last spits of rain will gradually shift east as the low departs, and the showery convection will be confined to East Texas by midnight. On the back side of the departing upper low, north winds will usher in cooler air in the northwest, but the dry advection will lag behind. The exception would be southern and southeastern zones where the cooler air will take longer to arrive.
Dry air intrusion is gradually taking over across the region as the weakening upper low over central Texas continues to move to the northeast. There is a weak short wave trough moving out of the southern Rockies into the southern high plains Tuesday evening. This will lead to a minor push in cool air mass over north central Texas to send a weak cold front into the area that will reach the Victoria Crossroads by late Tuesday afternoon and be through the area by Tuesday evening.
Southwest breezes will veer to west and northwest ahead of a cold front this evening then to the north with the frontal passage around midnight tonight. /issued 438 AM CST Mon Dec 5 2016/ A slowly weakening upper level low was spinning its way gradually northeast across the Big Bend this morning. Throughout the day, the low will quickly open and swing across Central Texas to the ArkLaTex, flinging a few clouds towards the far southeastern extent of the forecast area. Upper level low that is transiting the state to our southeast today will phase with a multi-core low over the northern sates and central Canada as it ejects into the Ohio Valley.
326 PM CST Mon Dec 5 2016 (Tonight and Tuesday) The upper level low is shifting east into Central Texas late this afternoon and is taking the rain chances with it. Cold front moves through West Central Texas on Tuesday.
1046 AM MST Mon Dec 5 2016 Clouds increased over the region early this morning ahead of a fast moving shallow trough approaching from the northwest. The cold front associated with this system will just reach the eastern Uinta Mountains around 12Z, then pushes into northwest Colorado this morning before eventually stalling somewhere just south of the I-70 Corridor by 00Z/Tues. This will result in widespread blowing and drifting snow in the high passes today. The southern mountains and the lower elevations are unlikely to see much if any precipitation during the day. Drying will spread across the region from west to east late Tuesday night as the trough axis described previously pushes east of the forecast area.
258 PM EST Mon Dec 5 2016 Low pressure is expected to spread precipitation across the region Tuesday.
Temperatures east of there are already in the lower 30s and winds have not yet increased. The shift south places portions of the CWA within the deformation zone on the backside of the low. The rest of the forecast timeframe consists of winds and falling temperatures and periods of light snow that wrap around the low as it moves into the Western Lakes region.
The upper level low across the western CWA this afternoon will continue to open and move east through the evening hours. There is a slight potential some moisture wrapping around the back side of the low could provide some light rain or sprinkles through the Hill Country this evening. A dry cold front will move through the area Tuesday afternoon. Ahead of the front clear skies and west to northwest downsloping winds will provide for warmer temperatures, with highs into the mid 60s to low 70s for southern areas where front is last to clear. Cooler across the north with highs only in the upper 50s to low 60s where post frontal clouds develop.
An upper level low will move from southeast TX this evening to the Mid-Atlantic coast by sunset Tuesday.
This rain helped keep the area cool today with temperatures struggling to warm into the lower 50s across the far north and upper 50s across the south. Currently, dewpoints are in the lower 50s along the I-85 corridor with mid 50s along the southern fringes of the forecast area. Have to look closer to I-10 before dewpoints are in the 60s, which coincides with the current position of the warm front. Rain falling across the area will continue to re-enforce the rain cooled, stable airmass, and impede the warmer, more unstable airmass well to our south from moving north. Light rain showers could linger across the area through the morning hours as the upper trough exits to the northeast.
338 PM CST Mon Dec 5 2016 An upper low will move through the Lower Mississippi Valley overnight, but influence will be limited to high clouds moving through the area as precipitation will remain well to the south and east of the CWA. A cold front currently located over central Nebraska will make steady progress and move through the forecast area tonight, beginning a markedly colder period for the remainder of the week. If this does occur, surface temperatures should still be a few degrees above freezing, so no impacts would be expected. Highs will be cooler in the middle 30s to lower 40s, even with mostly sunny skies.
Stratus deck with MVFR ceilings from 1000-1500 feet persists over much of South Texas but visible satellite imagery shows breaks occurring along the Rio Grande as drier air in the mid to upper levels of the atmosphere south of the upper low has finally worked its way into the lower levels. Isentropic lift in the 290-305K layer will quickly be diminishing over South Texas this morning as the upper low to the south of Del Rio moves northeast. Water vapor imagery shows dry slot has moved across the region but could see some wrap around moisture from the upper low affect the northern Brush Country this afternoon as the upper low moves to the Austin area by 00Z Tuesday.
A dry cold front will become nearly stationary over northern AZ, the geographical limit where most of the cold air will remain located.
243 PM CST Mon Dec 5 2016 231 PM CST We remain between a departing high pressure ridge and low pressure over the plains. Low temps will be at or just below freezing. Confidence is low in widespread freezing fog and slick conditions. Freezing rain is possible given forecast soundings and forecast low temps. Ice accumulation will mostly be a light glaze as temps will climb above freezing by mid to late morning. Fog dissipates in the late morning as the cold front moves through and west winds pick up.
322 PM EST Mon Dec 5 2016 Latest water vapor imagery shows low pressure system centered over southwest Texas will travel east-northeast across southeast plains tonight into Tuesday.
245 PM CST Mon Dec 5 2016 The upper low pressure across northern Mexico will continue to slide northeastward and open as a wave as it nears the Gulf States later tonight. This low pressure will slide east of our area late tonight and into Tuesday.
WV imagery indicates a strong closed off upper level low moving slowly east across the plains of eastern Kansas. Near the surface, a strong area of low pressure is shifting slowly east across eastern Kansas as well. As for temperatures, lows tonight look to range from around freezing across west central Kansas to low 40s across south central Kansas. Highs tomorrow look to range from the low 50s across central Kansas to mid 60s across far southwestern Kansas.
/issued 350 PM CDT Wed Mar 29 2017/ (Tonight and Thursday) High pressure will continue to build over Texas, during the next 24 hours. As an upper trough continues to move farther east, a ridge aloft will move into Texas from the west.
Moisture should begin to spread into our southern sections after midnight as the southerly flow at 850 mb picks up behind the departing ridge.
Lingering scattered showers can be expected Thursday as this upper low continues to slowly pull away from the region.
Over the past hour, scattered convection has developed ahead of the cold front, which as of 930 PM had pushed a little east of I49. Some wrap around showers associated with upper low moving across eastern KS could affect parts of northeast OK later tonight, with breezy W-SW winds persisting through the night in many areas. Weak dryline/cold front is moving across northeast Oklahoma at this time, and the potential still exists for a few strong to severe storms east of this boundary over the next few hours.
Snow levels will generally be above 6000 feet, keeping snow impacts minimal except for the highest passes, such as Lost Trail.
Stratus and rain showers will follow behind on the northwest side of the low, and will linger through the overnight and into midday Thursday before exiting off to the east.
VFR will continue through the entire 06 UTC TAF cycle as an upper level low slowly pulls away from the region. Based on latest observations and trends, occasional VFR cigs around FL080-FL100 will be possible at the Metroplex before this low level moisture is scoured out. These winds will shift in response to the approach of the next upper trough which will bring in additional upper level clouds. /ISSUED 321 PM CDT Wed Mar 29 2017/ An upper low continues its steady eastward march across the Southern Plains this afternoon, bringing showers and storms to the Upper Texas and Louisiana coastal areas. The upper low will continue east tonight, dragging a cold front southeastward through the area. The front should sweep southeast through the entire area by Thursday morning, bringing cooler and drier air to the region.
A strong upper low is located over the southern plains this afternoon. A warm front is pushing north through the MId- South and is roughly located from NE Arkansas into West Tennessee at 19z. Temps are climbing into the lower 80s south of the front with dewpoints in the lower 60s with some location mixing into the upper 50s. This low level jet will feed and increasingly moist and unstable airmass into the Delta region. At this point expect the upper low to track across Missouri on Thursday with a cold front tracking east into the Mid-South.
601 PM MST Wed Mar 29 2017 High pressure building across the Desert Southwest will result in a warming trend through Thursday.
The warm front that brought widespread rain earlier today has moved out of region. A weak cold front will track across eastern Oregon tonight. and some of the higher mountains and valleys will get about 1-2 inches of new snow. After the passage of the upper level trough on Thursday. high pressure building at the surface and aloft will result in breezy to windy conditions. A dry northwest to north flow will develop Thursday night as an upper level ridge builds over the region.
805 PM EDT Wed Mar 29 2017 The pressure ridge extending through the forecast area tonight will be off the coast Thursday. Moisture will return Thursday with a developing onshore flow and warm front just to our south.