Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
612 AM EDT THU MAR 17 2016 STRONG LOW PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL TRACK EAST AND MERGE WITH A COASTAL LOW OFF NEW ENGLAND COAST THIS EVENING. THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKES FRIDAY. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT MOVING THE LOW CENTERED OVER LAKE SUPERIOR EAST TODAY. TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL SWING ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKES FRIDAY.
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL FINALLY DRY OUT SOME TODAY AS A RIDGE AXIS COMES ONTO THE COAST. BECOMING SOUTHEAST TOMORROW AS HEIGHTS FALL TO THE WEST AS A STRONG TROUGH APPROACHES THE COAST AND THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES INTO ERN OREGON.
435 AM CDT THU MAR 17 2016 A broad upper level trough is centered over the Upper Midwest with westerly flow over the CWA. A cold front is beginning to move into the area which will cool temperatures today closer to normal values. Another stronger cold front is expected to push into the area during the day on Friday resulting in high temperatures ranging from the lower 60s across the Western Low Rolling Plains to the 80s across the Rio Grande Valley.
331 AM CDT THU MAR 17 2016 Strong 994 mb low pressure center upper Michigan will weaken and move east today with dry westerly flow continuing over central IL.
A cold front moving through the region is producing snow across much of the Northern Rockies this early morning. Snow has started to fall over the lower valleys in western Montana but accumulations are mostly over grassy surfaces. Models all indicate this cold frontal boundary will slowly progress east and south throughout the morning hours and stall across the continental divide into west central Montana.
LOWERED MINIMUM TEMPERATURES - MAINLY NORTHWEST - AS CURRENT TRENDS INDICATED TEMPERATURES WERE ALREADY IN THE LOWER 20S FAR NORTHWEST. BETTER CHANCES MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT AS BACKDOOR LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. NORTHERN UPPER LOW DIMINISHES WITH SOME PRECIPITATION ATTEMPTING TO WRAP INTO THE AREA OVER THE GREAT LAKES LOW. TROUGH FROM RESIDUAL UPPER LOW STRETCHES OVER THE STATE AS HIGH STARTS SETTLING INTO MANITOBA.
AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS IS CENTERED JUST OFF THE COAST THIS MORNING, AND THE ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL THERMAL PRESSURE TROUGH HAS FORMED JUST OFF THE COAST AS WELL. THE EAST SIDE WILL SEE WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY AS WELL, WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S. THE THERMAL TROUGH SHIFTS NORTH TONIGHT, AND THERE WILL BE A COASTALLY TRAPPED WIND REVERSAL WHICH WILL TURN THE FLOW ONSHORE AND BRING STRATUS UP THE COAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN A MUCH COOLER DAY FRIDAY ALONG THE COAST, BUT AREAS FROM THE ILLINOIS VALLEY AND ROSEBURG EAST WILL LIKELY ENJOY THEIR WARMEST DAY WITH AN UPPER RIDGE RIGHT OVERHEAD.
Light and variable winds become light south in the afternoon with highs in the low to mid 60s. Lows Thursday night will be in the low to mid 30s.
341 AM CDT THU MAR 17 2016 ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG THE HIGHWAY 20 CORRIDOR DISSIPATED DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THERE MAY BE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO BUT WITH THE LOW COVERAGE EXPECTED.
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT ARE STILL ON TRACK TO MOVE INTO NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT SO HAVE NOT MADE ANY CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. A WEAK SURFACE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTH-CENTRAL MT DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS LOW LEVEL WINDS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS SWITCH TO A NORTH- NORTHEAST DIRECTION. WITH TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING. BUT VARIABLE DRIVING CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH SNOW ACCUMULATION ON BRIDGES AND SHADED AREAS. SNOW CLEARS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
A cold front approaching from our northwest will lay out east to west as it stalls over or just north of our northernmost zones today.
IN THE WAKE OF THESE DISTURBANCES A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN OVER THE REGION BRINGING WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
OUR METRO MODEL SUGGESTS ROADS WILL BE BELOW FREEZING UNTIL 9-10 AM SO ANY BRIEF BUT INTENSE SNOWFALL COULD CAUSE SLICK ROADS FOR EARLY COMMUTERS/TRAVELERS INCLUDING THE I-90 CORRIDOR FROM BOZEMAN PASS TO BILLINGS. SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD PERSIST INTO FRIDAY AS WEAK UPPER LOW REMAINS ANCHORED TO OUR NE WITH HINTS OF A TROWAL WRAPPING INTO OUR EASTERN ZONES. MODELS ARE CONTINUING TO BUILD IN A RIDGE FOR THE WEEKEND.
QUIET WEATHER TODAY ACROSS THE AREA AS THE FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH IS ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST AND THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS SITTING OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. BIGGEST WEATHER OF NOTE TODAY WILL BE THE PRETTY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DUE TO THE LOW DEW POINTS.
131 AM EDT THU MAR 17 2016 WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TODAY. A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ATTEMPT TO EDGE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT. WENT TOWARD THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR LOWS IN THAT REGION. UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL DECAY OVER THE FIRST HAVE OF THE SHORT TERM WHILE THE LABRADOR/QUEBEC UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL RETROGRADE AND STRENGTHEN BRINGING AN EMBEDDED AND AMPLIFYING TROUGH AXIS INTO NEW ENGLAND. A NEW UPPER LOW.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION WILL BRING DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH A WARMING TREND.
IT WILL TURN COOLER FOR THIS WEEKEND WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S AND LOWS IN THE 20S. UPPER LOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS NORTHERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND EVENTUALLY MOVE EAST OF THE REGION AND WEAKEN. UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL DOMINATE THE PATTERN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DECENT UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SANDWICHED IN BETWEEN THESE WILL INDUCE IMPRESSIVE HEIGHT RISES IN THE WAKE OF TROF AXIS ROTATING THRU WITH 100M RISES OVER THE AREA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON WHICH WILL FURTHER HINDER PRECIP CHANCES.
241 AM PDT THU MAR 17 2016 Chilly high pressure will build into the Inland Northwest today bringing mostly sunny skies and a chilly north wind.
325 AM EDT THU MAR 17 2016 WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TODAY. DRY COLD FRONT FRIDAY. A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ATTEMPT TO EDGE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT. WENT TOWARD THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR LOWS IN THAT REGION. MAIN FOCUS WILL BE ON THE UPPER LEVEL LOW DROPPING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND THE CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE DEEP SOUTH INTO THE CAROLINA COAST THIS WEEKEND. ALWAYS LEARY OF DYNAMIC COOLING WITH APPROACHING CLOSED LOWS ALOFT.
218 AM EDT THU MAR 17 2016 A DRY COLD FRONT WILL SINK SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AND BE NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST THIS WEEKEND. THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE UPSTATE WILL SHIFT SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS WITH MOISTURE ALOFT LIMITING NET RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD HELP PREVENT FOG DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S LOOK REASONABLE.
THE PATTERN WILL FEATURE NORTHWEST FLOW HEADING INTO THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LOW PRESSURE SLIDING SE FM MT INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS WHILE A 90KT H3 JET NOSES THRU THE ROCKIES ACROSS KS. THE COOLER TEMPS FRIDAY WITH HIGHS AVERAGING IN THE 40S SHOULD KEEP RH VALUES HIGH ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AND WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW CRITERIA AS WELL.
647 AM EDT THU MAR 17 2016 IMPACTS: NOTHING SIGNIFICANT PATTERN SYNOPSIS/EXPECTED EVOLUTION: HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE REGION FROM ONTARIO WILL HELP TO USHER OUT AN OCCLUDING LOW STALLED OUT OVER THE STATE.
321 AM EDT THU MAR 17 2016 MORE SHOWERS AND MAYBE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY, AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS SHORT WAVES MOVE THROUGH AND A SFC COLD FRONT SLOWLY DROP SE THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. MODELS SHOWING A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. POPS ALSO INCREASE WITH ANOTHER SHORT WAVE AND AHEAD OF A SECONDARY COLD FRONT. SHOWERS ALSO ENHANCED BY A SECONDARY COLD FRONT AS THE UPPER LEVEL DEEPEN. MORE ACCUMULATING SNOW ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CENTRAL NY.
1032 PM EDT FRI JUL 10 2015 WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AND REMAIN NEARBY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
1148 PM CDT FRI JUL 10 2015 HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE REGION RESULTING IN CALM WINDS FOR THE EVENING SO FAR. THE UPPER WAVE WILL BE MOVING NORTHEAST ALONG THE TOP OF SOME RIDGING THAT IS BUILDING ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. HAVE THUS CONCENTRATED THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES ACROSS WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS MAINLY FROM ABOUT PEORIA- SPRINGFIELD WESTWARD. IS THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE AS WE WILL BE POSITIONED ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE STRONGER FLOW ALOFT AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. DEPENDING ON BOUNDARY LOCATION AND ORIENTATION OF THE LOW LEVEL JET. MODELS INDICATING THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL STILL BE IN POSITION TO CONTINUE TO FEED HIGH THETA-E AIR NORTHEAST INTO THE BACKSIDE OF THE MCS WHICH MAY CONTINUE THE STORM ACTIVITY OVER PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
936 PM CDT FRI JUL 10 2015 NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE AS ANY CONVECTION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT WILL BE ISOLATED AT BEST AS THE LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE HRRR THUS FAR THIS EVENING FROM RUN TO RUN HAS OVER DEVELOPED CONVECTION ACROSS THE DAKOTAS GIVEN THE HIGH CAPE/LOW CIN ENVIRONMENT. DO EXPECT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM THREAT TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES LOW OVER CENTRAL MONTANA WITH TROUGH OVER SOUTHEAST MONTANA INTO NORTHEAST WYOMING. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES BROAD UPPER LOW NEAR THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN WITH A VARIETY OF WEAK VORTICES WORKING AROUND THE SYSTEM. ONE SUCH UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE NORTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY.
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY WAS SUPPORTING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.
1239 AM EDT SAT JUL 11 2015 HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA INTO SATURDAY.
946 PM CDT FRI JUL 10 2015 HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE REGION RESULTING IN CALM WINDS FOR THE EVENING SO FAR. THE UPPER WAVE WILL BE MOVING NORTHEAST ALONG THE TOP OF SOME RIDGING THAT IS BUILDING ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. HAVE THUS CONCENTRATED THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES ACROSS WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS MAINLY FROM ABOUT PEORIA- SPRINGFIELD WESTWARD. IS THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE AS WE WILL BE POSITIONED ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE STRONGER FLOW ALOFT AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. DEPENDING ON BOUNDARY LOCATION AND ORIENTATION OF THE LOW LEVEL JET. MODELS INDICATING THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL STILL BE IN POSITION TO CONTINUE TO FEED HIGH THETA-E AIR NORTHEAST INTO THE BACKSIDE OF THE MCS WHICH MAY CONTINUE THE STORM ACTIVITY OVER PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING IN PLACE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT.
/ISSUED 353 PM CDT Fri Jul 10 2015/ (Tonight and Saturday) Dry and warm conditions continue, as an upper ridge building in from the east, brings increasingly subsident conditions. Lee trough will be slightly weaker, with south winds in the 10 to 15 mph.
LITTLE CHANGES NEEDED TO THIS UPDATE AS UPPER RIDGING SLOWLY RETROGRADES ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH. THE CENTER OF THE UPPER RIDGING WILL SLOWLY POSITION ITSELF TO THE WEST WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AND HIGHS IN THE MID 90S. EASTERN ALABAMA MAY BE JUST FAR ENOUGH FROM THE RIDGE CENTER TO WARRANT SLIGHTLY HIGHER RAIN CHANCES. 87/GRANTHAM HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL CREATE LIGHT WINDS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
543 PM MDT FRI JUL 10 2015 ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BUT SHOULD QUICKLY DIMINISH IN STRENGTH AND COVERAGE THIS EVENING AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING HELPS TO SUPPRESS CONVECTION.
A RATHER COMPACT UPPER LOW IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH OHIO.
87/GRANTHAM HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL CREATE LIGHT WINDS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. LITTLE CHANGES NEEDED TO THIS UPDATE AS UPPER RIDGING SLOWLY RETROGRADES ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH. THE CENTER OF THE UPPER RIDGING WILL SLOWLY POSITION ITSELF TO THE WEST WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AND HIGHS IN THE MID 90S. EASTERN ALABAMA MAY BE JUST FAR ENOUGH FROM THE RIDGE CENTER TO WARRANT SLIGHTLY HIGHER RAIN CHANCES.
AND MAINLY DRY SUMMER WEATHER WILL BE WITH US THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION. QUIET EVENING ON TAP FOR THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH BUILDING SURFACE RIDGING AND DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
THE FIRST IS RIDING WELL TO THE NORTH INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA OVER TOP A BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH THROUGH THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST. A BROAD WEST TO EAST ELONGATED UPPER RIDGE IS IN CONTROL OF THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. GENERAL SUBSIDENCE UNDER THIS RIDGE IS PROVIDING A STEADY FLOW OF DRY MID/UPPER LEVEL AIR OVER THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL FL PENINSULA FROM THE ATLANTIC. AS WOULD BE EXPECTED UNDER A LARGE UPPER RIDGE.
TALL HIGH PRESSURE TO DRAW CLOSER ON SAT AND PUSH TS CHANCES WELL WEST OF LBB.
87/GRANTHAM HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL CREATE LIGHT WINDS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
1004 PM MDT FRI JUL 10 2015 ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BUT SHOULD QUICKLY DIMINISH IN STRENGTH AND COVERAGE THIS EVENING AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING HELPS TO SUPPRESS CONVECTION.
SLIGHT OFFSHORE WIND COMPONENT WILL ALLOW COASTAL TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE LOW 70S WITH GENERALLY MID 70S ELSEWHERE. RIDGE ALOFT SHIFTS WESTWARD BUT STILL REMAINS EXTENDED OVER THE SOUTHERN U. LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS DROPS SOUTH OF THE CAPE WITH THE SLIGHT INCREASE IN SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW WHICH MAY DELAY THE SEA BREEZE SLIGHTLY ESPECIALLY ALONG THE VOLUSIA COAST. LIMITED AND DELAYED AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO REACH THE LOW 90S ALONG THE COAST TO MID-UPPER 90S OVER THE INTERIOR. RIDGE AXIS OVERHEAD WILL KEEP SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS NORTH OF THE CAPE AND SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS OFF THE BREVARD/TREASURE COAST WATERS WITH SPEEDS 5-10KTS.
AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WEEKEND. THE RIDGE WILL HAVE TO MOVE FARTHER WEST UNDER A COLD FRONT OR AS CURRENTLY FORECAST. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE UPPER RIDGE ANCHORING ITSELF IN OVER THE UPPER RED RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. THE EURO SOLUTION CONTINUES TO HOLD THE RIDGE IN OVER TX.
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 73 93 73 93 / 10 20 10 30 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 71 89 70 88 / 30 30 20 40 OAK RIDGE, TN 72 89 71 87 / 40 30 20 40 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 67 85 65 84 / 40 40 30 40.
SFC WINDS WILL INCREASE AROUND MID MORNING SATURDAY AS A SFC TROF OF LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS STARTING TO BUILD NORTH AND WESTWARD ACROSS TEXAS. SUSTAINED WINDS WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT ELEVATED AS THE LEESIDE TROUGH DEEPENS. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS.
728 PM EDT FRI JUL 10 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST AND OVER THE REGION INTO SATURDAY. BRINGING SLIGHTLY COOLER AND NOTABLY LESS HUMID WEATHER WITH LITTLE CHANCE FOR RAIN. A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
THIS IS ALL THANKS TO A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM, EXPANDING FROM THE MIDWEST TOWARDS THE EAST COAST. RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WILL RESULT IN SOME VALLEY FOG AS TEMPS AND DEW POINTS CONVERGE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S RANGE.
740 PM MDT FRI JUL 10 2015 ISOLATED STORMS REMAIN OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS. TOMORROW SHOULD BE A BIT WARMER STILL WITH EVEN LESS CONVECTION THAT TODAY. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SHIFT WESTWARD OVER NORTH TEXAS WITH THE MID LEVELS OVER COLORADO BECOMING INCREASINGLY SUBSIDENT.
959 PM EDT FRI JUL 10 2015 HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA INTO SATURDAY.
ELSEWHERE THE WATCH WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THIS S/W TROF PASSES.
1141 PM EDT FRI JUL 10 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST AND OVER THE REGION INTO SATURDAY. BRINGING SLIGHTLY COOLER AND NOTABLY LESS HUMID WEATHER WITH LITTLE CHANCE FOR RAIN. A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
1130 PM EDT FRI JUL 10 2015 HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA INTO SATURDAY.
750 PM EDT FRI JUL 10 2015 WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AND REMAIN NEARBY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS PREVAILED IN THE LOWER LEVELS UP TO 85H. /ISSUED 324 PM CDT FRI JUL 10 2015/ DEEP LAYER RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AND WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED.
SFC WINDS WILL INCREASE AROUND MID MORNING SATURDAY AS A SFC TROF OF LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS ACROSS THE AREA. SFC WINDS WILL INCREASE AROUND MID MORNING SATURDAY AS A SFC TROF OF LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS STARTING TO BUILD NORTH AND WESTWARD ACROSS TEXAS. SUSTAINED WINDS WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT ELEVATED AS THE LEESIDE TROUGH DEEPENS. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS.
THE HRRR THUS FAR THIS EVENING FROM RUN TO RUN HAS OVER DEVELOPED CONVECTION ACROSS THE DAKOTAS GIVEN THE HIGH CAPE/LOW CIN ENVIRONMENT. DO EXPECT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM THREAT TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES LOW OVER CENTRAL MONTANA WITH TROUGH OVER SOUTHEAST MONTANA INTO NORTHEAST WYOMING. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES BROAD UPPER LOW NEAR THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN WITH A VARIETY OF WEAK VORTICES WORKING AROUND THE SYSTEM. ONE SUCH UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE NORTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY.
SHOWERS AND STORMS LOOK TO HAVE FINALLY DIED FOR THE NIGHT ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY. SO FAR TODAY, TEMPS HAVE RISEN TO THE LOW TO MID 90S AND HEAT INDICES HAVE REACHED THE 100-105F RANGE IN SOME AREAS.
1025 PM EDT FRI JUL 10 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.
742 PM EDT FRI JUL 10 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.
1155 PM CDT FRI JUL 10 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
940 PM EDT FRI JUL 10 2015 WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AND REMAIN NEARBY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
A BROAD UPR RIDGE IS STILL EXPECTED TO BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS WITH ATTENDANT MAINLY HOT/DRY CONDITIONS. UPSTREAM AND DOWNSTREAM TROUGHS AND ASSOCIATED COOLER/RAINY WEATHER WILL DOMINATE THE NORTHEAST/NORTHWEST COASTS. HERE IN THE TN VALLEY WE WILL BE ON THE NE-E FLANK OF THE UPR RIDGE AT ESSENTIALLY THE RIDGE/TROUGH INTERFACE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE IN THE LOW/MID 90S EACH DAY WITH HEAT INDICES AGAIN AROUND 100F.
ENERGY CIRCLING AROUND AN UPPER LOW POSITIONED OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL KEEP THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS MOSTLY OVER SE OREGON OVERNIGHT WITH A LESSER CHANCE OVER MTNS SW IDAHO.
803 PM EDT FRI JUL 10 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE LOW 80S.
BROAD HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO COVER AND DOMINATE THE CWA AND VICINITY FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS TO 36 HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD OVER THE AREA WITH A WEAKER GRADIENT. LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 500 BM HEIGHT SHOWS BROAD RIDGE IN CONTROL OF THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS AND WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT THE RIDGE GRADUALLY RETROGRADES WESTWARD WITH ITS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL TX BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
1026 PM EDT FRI JUL 10 2015 CURRENTLY - A WEAKENING RIDGE TO OUR NORTH IS STILL HOLDING GENTLE EAST BREEZES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS TO BE IN THE LOWER 80S WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID 70S.
719 PM EDT FRI JUL 10 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVERHEAD TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE DEEP SOUTH WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT BUILDS INTO THE LOWER MIDWEST OVER THE WEEKEND. FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY NORTHWEST DURING THE DAY SAT AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE DEEP SOUTH BUILDS WEST ACROSS THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY INTO TX/OK.
After 12Z, all TAFs go VFR through tomorrow night as an upper level high pressure system builds into the area. /ISSUED 353 PM CDT Fri Jul 10 2015/ (Tonight and Saturday) Dry and warm conditions continue, as an upper ridge building in from the east, brings increasingly subsident conditions. Lee trough will be slightly weaker, with south winds in the 10 to 15 mph.
949 PM CDT FRI JUL 10 2015 THERE IS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT SPINNING ON THROUGH THE CWA RIGHT NOW. THE LOW LEVEL JET THAT IS DEVELOPING WILL LIKELY FOCUS ANY NIGHTTIME CONVECTION NORTH OF THIS CWA. AND DEWPOINTS ARE BACK IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. 850 MB TEMPERATURES RISE TO THE LOW TO MID 20S ON SATURDAY.
THERE STILL APPEARS TO BE A CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THE MEAN SYNOPTIC EVOLUTION IS FOR THE HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT TO BUILD AND RETROGRADE ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY TO THE SOUTH CENTRAL U. ESP FURTHER NORTH AND EAST AWAY FROM THE INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE. AS WILL THE CORRESPONDING PUMP UPWARDS IN HEAT/HUMIDITY WITH TIME AND IN CONCERT WITH THE RIDGE/AREAL PLACEMENT.
917 PM EDT FRI JUL 10 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVERHEAD TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.
237 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016 AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THIS APPROACHING TROUGH. SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION MAY FORM AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE PROJECTED RIGHT NEAR THE CRITICAL FREEZING MARK DURING THE TIME PERIOD AND AREA OF CONCERN. ANY PRECIPITATION WOULD LIKELY BE IN THE FORM OF DRIZZLE OR LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE FOR A FEW HOURS. STILL SOME CONCERN THAT THE LOWEST 2,000 FT ABOVE GROUND MAY NOT SATURATE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT THE VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION. SLICK SPOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ON BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES IF THE LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE MATERIALIZES. BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROUGH.
255 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016 The main concern tonight and into Sunday morning will be the chances of freezing drizzle/freezing rain across portions of far northeast Oklahoma and a good chunk of northwest Arkansas.
SURFACE WINDS HAVE ALREADY VEERED TO A MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION IN RESPONSE TO A LEE TROF. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER UNTIL THEY ARE NORTHERLY LATER TONIGHT INTO LATE TOMORROW MORNING AS THE TROF PUSHES THROUGH AS A WEAK FRONT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO BE ON AVERAGE 10 DEGREES COOLER TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
315 PM EST SAT FEB 13 2016 HIGH IMPACT WEATHER: BITTER COLD TONIGHT MAIN CONCERN: OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES UPPER TROUGH OVER EASTERN U. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST THIS AFTERNOON. THIS HIGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT ALLOWING WINDS TO DIE DOWN AND TEMPERATURES TO PLUMMET TO NEAR RECORD LEVELS BY MORNING. 12Z SFC MAP SHOWED TEMPS/DEWPOINTS IN THE -20S OVER MINNESOTA UNDERNEATH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH. TEMPERATURES HERE LAST NIGHT DROPPED INTO THE -20S OVER THE INTERIOR COLDER AREAS LAST NIGHT AND SHOULD NOT BE ANY WARMER TONIGHT. THE HIGH WILL ALSO HELP CLEAR OUT MORE AREAS TONIGHT THAN LAST NIGHT.
SO HAVE SLID THE ICE ACCUMULATION AND FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL A LITTLE FARTHER TO THE NORTHEAST. LIGHT PRECIPITATION MOVING ALONG THE WESTERN FRINGE OF ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE THIS MORNING. AS THIS HIGH MIGRATES SOUTHEAST WE WILL SEE THE BAND OF WEAK WARM ADVECTION LIGHT SNOW PUSH EAST BUT WEAKEN. TRACK HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARDS WHICH ALLEVIATES SOME OF THE MIXED PRECIPITATION ISSUES AS THE FINGER OF ABOVE FREEZING MID LEVEL AIR WILL BE LIMITED TO JONES COUNTY WITHIN THE CWA.
1247 PM EST SAT FEB 13 2016 ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD IN TODAY AND CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT INTO THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
Near the surface, a lee side trough of low pressure is developing across eastern Colorado. Some southeastward development of freezing fog is not out of the question this morning, however the probability for freezing drizzle in these areas of stratus is not looking quite as probable at this time.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS AN EASTWARD SHIFTING LONG WAVE TROUGH ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC COASTLINE.
351 PM EST SAT FEB 13 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE INTO THE REGION FROM THE MIDWEST TONIGHT. AS THE HIGH PASSES BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON IT WILL ALLOW A WEAKENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.