Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
High pressure will be in control over the next 36 hours, with generally just an increase in clouds on Friday after plenty of sun today. Also lowered dewpoints in the afternoons, which causes the RH values to drop into the low 30s today, with even a few spots flirting with the upper 20s. A cutoff low, currently near the Four Corners, will meander toward the Lower Mississippi River Valley Friday night.
401 AM EST Thu Mar 4 2021 Under mostly cloudy skies and northwest winds of 10 to 15 mph, temperatures range from the mid 60s in the Upper Keys to the lower 70s elsewhere.
GEFS shows upper low moving east over the southern Rockies today with ridge building briefly over northern California with dry weather and Valley high temperatures ranging from the low to upper 60's. GEFS then shows upper level trough approaching the West Coast Friday with some light showers possibly reaching the Coast Range and Shasta during the afternoon.
546 AM CST Thu Mar 4 2021 An upper low will move eastward across the central Rockies today before turning southeast over the central/southern Plains tonight. Upper ridging ahead of the low early today will provide clear and mild conditions again, though the initial lift and moisture flux ahead of the upper low will result in increasing clouds and a slight chance for showers across central Kansas by the late afternoon. Rain chances will ramp up markedly later this evening as forcing for ascent increases ahead of the approaching upper low. An area of mid-level convergence and frontogenesis east of the low center still looks to affect portions of central and southern Kansas overnight, which should focus more persistent widespread rain/rain showers. Rain chances will diminish/end during Friday as the upper low/trof moves into the Lower Mississippi Valley.
An H5 low continues to traverse across the Rockies today before diving southeast across OK/TX Friday delivering our next cold front. Patchy sfc could develop over the waters early Friday morning as SSTs are in the mid 50s and sfc dewpoints in the low 60s. A pre-frontal trough early Friday morning will precede the front itself. Temperatures will briefly reach the low 80s in some locales before dropping off behind the front accompanied by increased northwesterly flow.
Today Through Friday Night High pressure remains in control over the SErn CONUS early this morning. Clear skies and light/variable winds have resulted in temperatures bottoming out near or just below freezing in valley locations, to near 40 degrees across the higher terrain where some mixing has been maintained. Today, upper ridging will slide Ewrd as an upper closed low traverses the Rockies. Across New England, an upper trough will retrograde towards the Great Lakes. Cloud cover and precipitation on Friday will help keep temperatures in the 50s over the N to the lower 60s S.
Low pressure will exit to the east this morning, with skies clearing behind it.
Pleasant temperatures, considerable sunshine, and light winds are expected into Friday under high pressure.
313 AM PST Thu Mar 4 2021 High pressure will bring drier weather with a warming trend through Friday.
High pressure will build today and bring warming and drying through Friday.
Satellite imagery was showing the large scale pattern has reverted to a well amplified ridge enveloping the western half of the CONUS. Also noted was a closed off circulation undercutting the ridge currently lifting past the four corners. Models continue to indicate precip associated with the aforementioned upper low will remain just south of the CWA and expand across KS/OK.
Above normal temperatures and dry conditions under a ridge of high pressure is expected through Friday. Temperatures are expected to reach into the lower 60s across many locations.
317 AM MST Thu Mar 4 2021 A low pressure system will cross southern and central Utah this morning. High pressure returns Friday before another weak storm system arrives for the weekend.
449 AM CST Thu Mar 4 2021 An upper ridge will continue to draw up unseasonably warm air into the region today and Friday. At the sfc today, the region is sandwiched between high pressure over the Great Lakes and low pressure over the Rockies.
Overnight lows will fall into the lower 40s with increasing cloud cover from the west.
An upper level low pressure near the Four Corners today will move east into the central High Plains this evening before diving southeast into the Panhandles and western OK overnight tonight. Rain chances ramp up quickly after midnight as the band of showers and isolated storms along the deformation zone on the east/northeast side of the upper low spreads east into the region. Decent rain chances continue into Friday with scattered showers and isolated storms continuing on the northeast side of the upper low.
Synoptically, mi-level troughing will amplify to the northeast along the eastern coastline with broad ridging to the west. This low will begin to provide some incoming mid- and upper-level clouds by the end of the short term period, but will otherwise not affect the region before the weekend.
Early morning water vapor imagery clearly showcases a cutoff low propagating through the Great Basin within a mean longwave ridge pattern. This low continues to move east/southeast today, inducing lee cyclogenesis along the Front Range and increasing the pressure gradient across the state of Kansas throughout the day. In addition to lowering dewpoints, did tweak highs a few degrees warmer based on recent verification trends in this pattern.
The winds will become west tonight at 10 to 15 mph, behind a Pacific cold front.
Cooler temperatures today will increase into the weekend.
The upper ridge continues to gradually amplify as the axis nudges east towards the North Dakota Montana border.
443 AM MST Thu Mar 4 2021 Mean central NOAM ridging will prevail through the end of the week, supporting mild temps and dry weather over the region. Upper low will push through the central Rockies and onto the central/southern Plains today. Lee-side trough will remain over the region with general light flow through tomorrow. Easterly upslope flow will continue to limit temps some east of the trough on the SD plains. Aforementioned central CONUS trough will advect ll moisture into the central Dakotas, and into portions of western SD tonight. The warmest temps will be on Sat when a warm front will lift slowly NE across the area, at least through the SW half.
/issued 229 AM CST Thu Mar 4 2021/ High pressure will remain over the Mid-South today. By Friday morning, an upper level low pressure system will begin to approach the Mid-South. The system will be weakening as it moves into the area, opening up from a closed low to an open trough. The showers will then start shift south during the evening as the upper trough begins to move out of the area. With the CAM models more in line with the GFS and ECMWF solutions, went toward the higher side of guidance in regards to POPS. High pressure will rebuild into the Mid-South over the weekend.
203 AM MST Thu Mar 4 2021 Satellite imagery and upper air analysis show high pressure aloft over the northern Rockies and a cut off low near the four corners region. We are seeing some thin high clouds spread up from the south, but otherwise the SW low will remain well to our south as it tracks eastward, allowing our region to remain dominated by the large scaling ridging and dry air through Friday. Friday should see highs get to the low-mid 60s most places. Records for March 5th are in the low-mid 70s and we won't get that warm.
Ridging aloft builds into the region with a dry deep layer northwesterly flow in place to start the near term. At the surface, high pressure will be centered over the Lower MS River Valley. Northwest flow aloft early on begins to shift quickly southwest tonight while becoming more diffluent going into Friday as positive tilt mid-level trof dives across the Lower MS River Valley. Low temps tonight are expected to range from the lower to mid 40s north of I-10, to 47 to 52 along the immediate coast.
as several cold frontal passages will continually reinforce a late winter airmass. Aloft, a ridge of high pressure will remained anchored over Greenland this period, sending heights falling over the Northeast and Eastern Great Lakes region, while an upstream ridge of high pressure amplifies over the Plains. At the surface on Friday, a tightening pressure gradient, between a low near NewFoundland and high pressure over the northern Plains will support brisk winds. Factoring in the winds, wind chill values will start Friday in the single digits, and only increase into the lower teens. Within this deepening mid level trough over our region temperatures at 850 hPa will average in the negative teens, cold enough to support lake instability.
Sea fog is possible early Friday morning and VIS could drop to MVFR at times as our next cold front approaches. An H5 low continues to traverse across the Rockies today before diving southeast across OK/TX Friday delivering our next cold front. Patchy sfc could develop over the waters early Friday morning as SSTs are in the mid 50s and sfc dewpoints in the low 60s. A pre-frontal trough early Friday morning will precede the front itself. Temperatures will briefly reach the low 80s in some locales before dropping off behind the front accompanied by increased northwesterly flow.
A back door cold front will push across the area this morning with cold advection expected through the day today. Despite the lack of cloud cover and precipitation, the cold air advection will keep temperatures a bit cooler today. With high pressure nosing into the area tonight and winds dying off, we should see a cold night with temperatures down into the 20s in most places. The cooler weather will stick around on Friday with highs only in the 40s. It will start with a large upper level trough over the eastern CONUS, and an upstream ridge just to the west of it.
230 AM MST Thu Mar 4 2021 1930 UTC Water Vapor Imagery/RAP analysis indicated a strong closed low circulation approaching the four corners region, with broad ridging in place across the High Plains. Aforementioned closed low will be primary driver for precipitation across the a large portion of the area on Thursday afternoon and evening.
SHORT TERM (Now through Friday): A modest 500mb ridge over the central United States early this morning will slide eastward today into tonight as a mid-level low/trough moves into the southern Plains. At the surface, high pressure across the northern Gulf of Mexico this morning will drift further eastward today into tonight and maintain an east to southeast flow across the area. Otherwise, today will be warm with highs ranging from low to mid 70s near the coast to the low to mid 80s inland under partly cloudy skies. Low pressure moves across the Texas panhandle this afternoon into tonight. Lows tonight are expected to fall into the low to mid 60s with some patchy fog. The cold front is expected to approach and push through deep south Texas on Friday.
This downsloping flow results in much warmer, well above seasonal normal high temperatures. A Canadian front moves into our area late in the afternoon bringing a return to cooler temperatures.
/issued 357 AM CST Thu Mar 4 2021/ SHORT TERM (Now through Friday): A modest 500mb ridge over the central United States early this morning will slide eastward today into tonight as a mid-level low/trough moves into the southern Plains. At the surface, high pressure across the northern Gulf of Mexico this morning will drift further eastward today into tonight and maintain an east to southeast flow across the area. Otherwise, today will be warm with highs ranging from low to mid 70s near the coast to the low to mid 80s inland under partly cloudy skies. Low pressure moves across the Texas panhandle this afternoon into tonight. Lows tonight are expected to fall into the low to mid 60s with some patchy fog. The cold front is expected to approach and push through deep south Texas on Friday.
408 AM CST Thu Mar 4 2021 An upper level low currently located across southern UT per WV imagery, will track into CO today then turn southeastward toward OK Friday. A deep trough across eastern Canada and New England is causing the southeastward turn, and this track will keep most of the precipitation south of western and north central Nebraska. At the surface expect low pressure to deepen across eastern CO and this turns the low-level flow southeasterly. A subtle wave diving southeast across MN and IA will drive a weak back door cold front into eastern portions of north central NE, and have lowered highs a couple of degrees across that area.
219 AM MST Thu Mar 4 2021 Mean central NOAM ridging will prevail through the end of the week, supporting mild temps and dry weather over the region. Upper low will push through the central Rockies and onto the central/southern Plains today. Lee-side trough will remain over the region with general light flow through tomorrow. Easterly upslope flow will continue to limit temps some east of the trough on the SD plains. Aforementioned central CONUS trough will advect ll moisture into the central Dakotas, and into portions of western SD tonight. The warmest temps will be on Sat when a warm front will lift slowly NE across the area, at least through the SW half.
226 PM CST Thu Mar 4 2021 Progressive upper level low will provide a glancing blow as it passes from the Texas Panhandle southeast into the Red River Valley overnight. Low clouds will spread south out of the Texas Panhandle across our CWA with the passage of the primary cold front beginning in the early morning hours tomorrow, with no precipitaion expected. The upper low will continue to pull away from the region on Friday night with winds eventually decreasing through the evening.
1036 AM EST Thu Mar 4 2021 A dry cold front will push south across the area this afternoon. High pressure builds back in tonight through the weekend, while a developing offshore low is expected to move well south and east of the region over the weekend. Broad cyclonic flow continues over the eastern CONUS today with an upper low centered over the Canadian maritimes. Deep WNW downslope flow will bring mainly sunny skies and warm temps ahead of a dry backdoor cold front that will push through the area this afternoon. NE sections expected to be a bit cooler with the front having the most impact here initially. High pressure builds in from the NW tonight with CAA ramping up after midnight bringing windy conditions along the coast. Lows expected in the low to mid 30s.
Measurable rain will be scattered around with this activity, but confidence on the widespread beneficial rainfall remains focused overnight, in the deformation zone north of the southeast-digging mid level cyclone as it tracks into western Oklahoma by sunrise Friday. Temperatures will remain well above freezing through this entire event, and all precipitation will fall as rain. Models do show minimal cold advection behind the departing trough, with a net decrease of about -3C at 850 mb versus Thursday, but with plenty of early March afternoon sun, mid to upper 50s are still expected. With enough sunshine we could see highs in the lower 60s from Dodge City to Hays with temperatures a few degrees cooler along the Oklahoma border as the clouds will be clearing late in the day.
Currently, a back door cold front is just north of the region close to the western Kentucky/Tennessee border. On Friday, an upper level trough will move through western Arkansas and into northern Louisiana. Temperatures will be cooler behind the cold front with highs in the lower 50s to mid 60s. High pressure will build back into the region Friday night starting a prolonged period of dry weather.
Winds will weaken late this evening as a cold front pushes through the region. An H5 low continues to traverse across the Rockies today before diving southeast across OK/TX Friday delivering our next cold front. Patchy sfc could develop over the waters early Friday morning as SSTs are in the mid 50s and sfc dewpoints in the low 60s. A pre-frontal trough early Friday morning will precede the front itself. Temperatures will briefly reach the low 80s in some locales before dropping off behind the front accompanied by increased northwesterly flow.
Temperatures at 2 PM ranged from the lower 20s in northern Door Co, and in the low to middle 30s elsewhere. Highs Friday will be a little warmer, in the upper 30s to middle 40s.
SHORT TERM (Tonight through Friday night): A 500mb low/trough across the Texas/Oklahoma panhandles tonight will move eastward across the southern plains Friday. low pressure over the Texas panhandle this afternoon will move slowly eastward into north Texas Fri morning and this will bring a cold front across west Texas tonight and into southwest Texas Friday. Patchy fog will develop across deep south Texas tonight with areas of fog developing across the coastal sections late tonight and continuing through Fri morning before a pre-frontal trough moves through the Rio Grande Valley Fri afternoon bringing drier air across the CWA from west to east. The cold front across southwest Texas Fri afternoon will move offshore the lower Texas coast Fri night bringing an end to rain chances. Cooler air will filter into deep south Texas in the wake of the front Fri night.
Warmer air returns into early next as the high shifts to the east. Overall pattern remains stable, with building upper ridge over the Rockies and deepening trough axis over the northeast states. Lows will drop into the low to mid 20s. A positively tilted H5 trough positioned over the eastern CONUS will feed in colder and drier air across the Ohio Valley to start the weekend.
An upper ridge will continue to draw up unseasonably warm air into the region today and Friday. At the sfc today, the region is sandwiched between high pressure over the Great Lakes and low pressure over the Rockies.
(This evening through Friday) Closed upper low over the CO Rockies will continue to move east and southeast across OK tonight into Friday morning. This system will bring a chance for rain and a few storms to the area this afternoon into Friday with the highest chances across northern parts of the fa. Cooler air moving into the area, along with clouds and rain will also lead to at or slightly below normal temperatures Friday afternoon.
We still maintained a warmer forecast than what the NBM is providing due to its continued cold bias, but we elected to go below the higher end thresholds we've been trending with as of late.
1211 PM EST Thu Mar 4 2021 A dry cold front will push south across the area this afternoon. High pressure builds back in tonight through the weekend, while a developing offshore low is expected to move well south and east of the region over the weekend. Broad cyclonic flow continues over the eastern CONUS today with an upper low centered over the Canadian maritimes. Deep WNW downslope flow will bring mainly sunny skies and warm temps ahead of a dry backdoor cold front that will push through the area this afternoon. NE sections expected to be a bit cooler with the front having the most impact here initially. High pressure builds in from the NW tonight with CAA ramping up after midnight bringing windy conditions along the coast. Lows expected in the low to mid 30s.
220 PM CST Thu Mar 4 2021 An upper level low moving across southern Colorado is bringing very windy conditions to southeastern New Mexico and West Texas this afternoon. Westerly winds have brought highs into the 80s across much of the area, but tomorrow will be cooler as a Canadian airmass drops south behind the departing low bringing temperatures back below normal.
Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: 18z surface analysis shows a 1033mb high centered north of Lake Superior with a ridge axis extending southward across western Upper/eastern Wisconsin/eastern Illinois. Michigan on the chilly side of this high but at least skies are mainly sunny across the board. Or maybe even some freezing drizzle depending on cloud layer temperatures which could be somewhat marginal though not totally sure on the likelihood of this scenario coming to pass.
Minor updates were posted to the forecast to reflect the cooler temperatures this morning.
The presence of stable high pressure is clearly evident on visible satellite imagery by the expansive lack of clouds across the Deep South. At this hour, some areas have already reached or exceeded yesterday's high, so continued to trend a bit on the warm side of guidance with highs in the lower 70s expected, and I also slightly lowered dewpoints based on the latest trends. The increased cloud cover should keep our overnight lows several degrees warmer than last night. During the day tomorrow, we remain under the influence of high pressure with any forcing still to our west, so we stay dry with highs in the 60s north to lower 70s south beneath a layer of mid-level clouds. A cutoff low, currently near the Four Corners, will meander toward the Lower Mississippi River Valley Friday night.
239 PM CST Thu Mar 4 2021 Another quiet, sunny, seasonably warm day across the region today as high pressure remained in control. For Friday, some slightly cooler air aloft will be creeping in, but even so, we'll remain seasonably warm with highs in the 40s to perhaps lower 50s again.
337 PM EST Thu Mar 4 2021 A dry cold front will push south across the area this afternoon. High pressure builds back in tonight through the weekend, while a developing offshore low is expected to move well south and east of the region over the weekend. The latest analysis is showing the backdoor cold front pushing through the CWA this afternoon. High pressure will build into the region from the NW with CAA ramping up after midnight with windy conditions across the coastal counties, especially the Outer Banks. Expect temperatures to drop into the low to mid 30s. High pressure will continue to build into the region allowing for cool, dry and sunny weather.
251 PM EST Thu Mar 4 2021 High pressure over the Great Lakes region will continue the dry weather trend over the next several days.
324 PM EST Thu Mar 4 2021 Mid level northwest flow will continue to govern conditions across southeast Michigan over the next 72 hours, as the western expanse of height falls associated with a closed low over New Foundland remain fixated over the region. A healthy radiational cooling environment will emerge tonight as lingering low stratus fades with the loss of daytime heating, offering an extended window of clear sky atop a diminishing gradient within encroaching surface ridging. Standard diurnal moderation of this colder resident thermal profile Friday given the high degree of insolation and no real advective process.
745 AM PST Thu Mar 4 2021 High pressure will bring warming and drying through Friday.
1139 AM CST Thu Mar 4 2021 Main forecast concerns this morning include the stratus and the effect they will have on max temps today, with similar concerns for the next couple days with a ridge of high pressure over the area.
Morning soundings and projected mixing heights support the high temperatures we already have in the forecast, largely in the lower 70s, so will leave those alone. The highest fire weather threat should remain confined to the far western fringes of the forecast area, where wind speeds will be highest this afternoon. An upper level low pressure near the Four Corners today will move east into the central High Plains this evening before diving southeast into the Panhandles and western OK overnight tonight. Rain chances ramp up quickly after midnight as the band of showers and isolated storms along the deformation zone on the east/northeast side of the upper low spreads east into the region. Decent rain chances continue into Friday with scattered showers and isolated storms continuing on the northeast side of the upper low.