Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
However, high pressure building in overhead late tonight will allow winds to ease again and begin to turn southerly for Friday. RH is expected to drop into the low 20s across much of the region by afternoon. The high will remain relatively close through afternoon and while southerly flow will strengthen across western MN, the gustiness needed for red flag conditions will likely remain across the Dakotas. An upper ridge and southwest to westerly surface winds will usher in much warmer temperatures on Saturday with H85 temps rising to around 15C to 20C.
100 AM CDT Fri Apr 30 2021 High pressure aloft will continue to shift east over the next few days.
Unsettled aviation conditions are expected through the TAF period courtesy of low pressure in the middle layers of the atmosphere approaching from the west. As well, an upper low over north Central Mexico/West Texas is providing instability upstream, but enough to also influence deep South texas and the RGV. The low will lift across Texas on Saturday, but that is after the short term.
Weak upper level trough behind the front remaining over the area through Saturday.
331 AM EDT Fri Apr 30 2021 Cooler today and tonight, with a chance of showers early.
Strong southwest winds on Saturday will usher in much warmer air with highs in the lower to middle 70s.
103 AM CDT Fri Apr 30 2021 (This evening through Friday) Water vapor satellite this afternoon shows a cut-off upper low moving southwest of El Paso, TX, resulting in continued southwest flow aloft, with isentropic lift bringing scattered to isolated showers to the region this afternoon. At the surface, northerly winds continue to bring in cooler air, with temperatures about 10-25 degrees cooler than 24 hours ago (as of 1 pm, temperatures are in the upper 50s to mid 60s). Tonight through Friday, the cut-off low will remain pretty much stationary across northern Mexico, with southwest flow aloft, and northerly winds at the surface, while isentropic lift and upper level divergence continues to bring scattered showers across the region, with just a slight chance of a rumble of thunder here and there.
The ridge across the region will start to flatten out tomorrow morning, bringing more westerly flow. Temperatures aloft also continue to increase, which will help push temperatures Friday into the upper 70s and 80s for lower elevations, with the highest peaks even reaching into the 50s. The ridge axis is expected to be well to our east over the Dakotas by Saturday afternoon as the next system pushes in from the west, working to flatten the ridge and cool things off.
GKendrick Upper level low pressure system in Chihuahua just southwest of the Big Bend Friday night will eject across central Texas with slight deepening by Saturday night.
208 AM CDT Fri Apr 30 2021 The cold front which passed through Middle Tennessee last evening is now to the east and south of the mid state as high pressure builds in from the northwest.
/issued 919 PM CDT Thu Apr 29 2021/ A cold front continues to move through the Mid-South this evening. Surface analysis this afternoon places a weak cold front from the Ohio Valley back through Southeast Missouri, Northwest Arkansas and back into the Hill Country of Texas. As of 2 PM CDT, temperatures across the Mid-South range from the lower 80s across extreme northeast Mississippi and 70s elsewhere where precipitation/cloud cover has kept temperatures down somewhat. Shower and thunderstorm chances will gradually diminish through the remainder of tonight as the cold front moves through the Mid- South and drier air filters into the area.
A slow moving cold front was subjectively analyzed at 19z from near Pine Bluff, to near De Queen.
236 AM CDT Fri Apr 30 2021 A cold front has now passed south of the forecast area, being followed by northerly flow of 4-8kt at most locations. The rest of the day will be sunny as as surface and 8h ridge builds across the Ozark Plateau east into the TN valley. The surface and 8h ridge shift southeast allowing south flow to begin redeveloping. At 5h, the ridge axis ahead of the upper low entering TX will shift into the mid MS valley through the eastern Gulf of Mexico. A few high clouds may start to enter the area as the upper ridge axis shifts east.
1017 PM MDT Thu Apr 29 2021 Broad northwesterly flow aloft persists across the region as trough axis pivots through the Midwest and a cut off upper low continues to churn across the SW US/southern Plains. Further upstream, an upper ridge is building across the western half of the US. This ridge will slide eastward, becoming centered over the northern Plains by Friday afternoon. The ridge will flatten a bit as a trough pushes into the Pacific NW and embedded waves translate eastward. Fairly robust thermal ridge (850 mb temperature anomalies of 10-15C) will be centered across the region Friday with very warm conditions expected through Saturday.
345 AM CDT Fri Apr 30 2021 WV imagery shows the upper trough centered over western Chihuahua, resulting in a rare, rainy night over West Texas and Southeast New Mexico.
Winds will gradually turn southerly area-wide by Friday evening as the high continues into the Midwest. High temperatures Friday will be in the low 60s except for some upper 60s possible along the Buffalo Ridge. During Friday night, a strong thermal ridge will shift east over MN and WI, aided by a 40-50 knot 850 mb southwesterly LLJ. Saturday's abrupt warm-up will be made possible by the aforementioned thermal ridge.
Temperatures this afternoon have warmed into the 60s for most, with some locations in the lower 70s. Ridge begins to build in on Friday. Cooler temperatures (upper 60s to lower 70s) expected in southwestern MN where the aforementioned high pressure will keep some cooler air in place. Friday night could see lows in the 50s, as the ridge and southerly flow remain in place. Thus, any potential mixing into this layer may keep temps on the warmer side. Deterministic models, despite differences in the finer details, show another trough and series of waves across the Northern and Central Plains.
239 AM CDT Fri Apr 30 2021 The upper low currently providing the region with rainfall is located over Sonora/Chihuahua and is showing little to no movement. Rain will push northward into the FA later this evening through the overnight hours as the upper low moves slowly eastward. Challenging upper low which has brought rain to parts of the area should approach the Big Bend region on Saturday morning. Guidance suggest a slow transition to the east over the weekend though this is happening under a subtle ridge positioned across the northern CONUS. Given the position of the low, over data sparse portions of NRN MX, this brings some uncertainty into the forecast over the next several days.
This cloud cover will continue to gradually decrease towards the southeast as the mid- level trough over our area shifts east. Afternoon high temperatures will generally top out in the low to mid 70s alongside northwesterly winds. Clear skies, dry air and light winds will move into the area tonight ahead of a high pressure center on Friday. Very pleasant outdoor weather is in store for Friday with sunny skies, light winds and high temperatures in the mid 70s to around 80 degrees as high pressure passes overhead. Cloud cover will gradually be on the increase throughout the day with increasing southerly winds ahead of an upper-level cut-off low pushing northeastward from northern Mexico into Texas.
1046 PM CDT Thu Apr 29 2021 Updated aviation portion for 06Z TAF issuance Cooler tomorrow, then breezy and much warmer for at least the first half of the weekend. But a secondary trough will shift south across the area overnight, accompanied by some forcing for ascent by the LFQ of an upper speed max. Wind will pick up and be a little gusty in the late morning and mid-day hours, but the arrival of the low-level ridge during the afternoon should allow winds to settle down later in the day.
231 AM MDT Fri Apr 30 2021 Water vapor imagery and 500 mb RAP analysis showed an upper trough over the Midwestern US and a large closed low south of New Mexico today. Northwest flow aloft developed this afternoon as ridging amplified along the west coast. Skies were clear over the High Plains, with north winds gusting at 25 to 30 mph across much of the region. On Friday, the Midwest trough shifts eastward and upper ridging spreads onto the Plains. Meanwhile, the closed low south of New Mexico remains nearly stationary. On Saturday, nearly zonal flow develops as the upper ridge spans the majority of the CONUS. To the south, the aforementioned closed low finally ejects to the southern Plains. However, clouds look to increase from the northwest as a cold front approaches.
300 AM CDT Fri Apr 30 2021 (Issued 300 AM CDT Fri Apr 30 2021) Today through Saturday: A cold front will shift south of the area this morning. Surface/850 ridging then becomes more dominant this afternoon with a lighter wind regime. With the high off to our southeast tonight we quickly transition into a strong waa pattern.
308 AM EDT Fri Apr 30 2021 Cooler today and tonight, with a chance of showers early. A secondary cold front pushes south across the area this afternoon and evening. A Wind Advisory has been issued for the higher elevations of Pocahontas and Randolph counties today through midnight tonight. Much cooler air has moved into the area, to allow temperatures to reach the 60s in the lowlands, with 40s to 50s in the mountains. High pressure remains in control Saturday with daytime temperatures topping out about 5 degrees below normal on average amid plenty of sunshine. WAA commences Saturday night with flow aloft increasing which should allow for a decent ridge/valley split.
311 AM CDT Fri Apr 30 2021 High pressure was continuing to filter into the region overnight which will help bring a rather nice day for the area. For tonight, high pressure will be nearly overhead as clear skies continue. Saturday will be a near carbon copy of Friday though temperatures may be a degree or two warmer. Southerly winds will increase through the day as the area of high pressure moves south of the Ozarks and the surface pressure gradient begins to tighten.
1029 PM CDT Thu Apr 29 2021 The cold front has moved into far southeast Missouri, and cooler/drier air is filtering into the forecast area. Carney Saturday continues to look tranquil and warm as an upper level ridge builds over the Mississippi Valley.
424 AM EDT Fri Apr 30 2021 Low pressure off the New England coast will continue to push a cold front across Virginia and North Carolina this morning. A second cold front will follow this afternoon and evening. Strong, gusty wind and cooler temperatures are expected today and tonight.
High pressure will continue to build across the area today resulting in dry conditions with near record high temperatures.
Could get a bit breezy today, but could have a lull near tri- cities near mid-day, depending on timing of a front/trough in the area.
Trough/warm front stretches to the southeast along the lee of the Canadian Rockies into eastern Montana. Upper level analysis places ridge stretching from the Great Basin into the Northern Rockies. Quiet weather remains over our area with some mid to upper level clouds sliding down the front of the ridge. Aforementioned ridge broadens out while at the surface aforementioned warm front lifts through the area. A bit cooler temperatures are expected Saturday over western locations as thermal ridge shifts east, but some locations may still nudge 80 degrees.
mid level ridging centered in the Gulf of Mexico sprawls across the state today with a warm and generally stable/dry atmosphere. A weak cold front along the AL/GA/FL line early this morning sags in across north FL by this afternoon. Relaxed high pressure across the waters gives way to a weak cold front.
621 AM MDT Fri Apr 30 2021 High pressure continues to dominate the western portion of the CONUS with low pressure off to the east over the Mid-Atlantic. Sunny skies and warm temperatures are expected to continue across the CWA as the region remains under an upper level ridge. Daytime highs for today are in the high 70s and 80s with continued warming into the 80s by Saturday. Today's afternoon humidities will fall into the low to mid teens and some elevated winds across Carbon and Albany Counties. Saturday afternoon should start to see some changes with the threat of thunderstorm activity Saturday evening with the preliminary cold front, tapering off into rain showers overnight.
No changes to max T or RH today, but do have concerns it could be a bit cooler in parts of E ND than we have and thus higher RH. Winds Saturday will be northwest to north behind the trough but surface temps will be much warmer as thermal ridge is over the area at 850 mb. Dew points will be higher, but with warmer temperatures lowest RH values will remain in the 20s. Despite lower wind speeds, with low RH potential with warmer temps, will mention near critical fire weather conditions in the HWO.
Breezy winds for Saturday with a cold front along with a few showers and thunderstorms possible north of I-80.
622 AM EDT Fri Apr 30 2021 Cooler today and tonight, with a chance of showers early.
1035 AM EDT Fri Apr 30 2021 Deep-layer ridging persists across Central America and the Gulf of Mexico.
404 AM CDT Fri Apr 30 2021 Today and tonight: Northwesterly flow aloft will persist across the region as upper level ridging continues over the western states.
515 AM PDT Fri Apr 30 2021 The eastern portion of an upper level trough is pushing over the area this morning bringing high clouds under a general southwest flow.
411 AM CDT Fri Apr 30 2021 A slightly cooler and drier day is in store for the Mid South. Expect more of the same for Saturday as high pressure builds in north of the forecast area.
430 AM PDT Fri Apr 30 2021 The eastern portion of an upper level trough is pushing over the area this morning bringing high clouds under a general southwest flow.
628 AM CDT Fri Apr 30 2021 High pressure was continuing to filter into the region overnight which will help bring a rather nice day for the area. For tonight, high pressure will be nearly overhead as clear skies continue. Saturday will be a near carbon copy of Friday though temperatures may be a degree or two warmer. Southerly winds will increase through the day as the area of high pressure moves south of the Ozarks and the surface pressure gradient begins to tighten.
A developing trough over the Great Basin will further increase the onshore flow and a build the marine layer this weekend for more widespread and noticeable cooling, along with night and morning low clouds and patchy fog.
650 AM CDT Fri Apr 30 2021 (Today and tonight) Latest water vapor satellite imagery shows the cutoff upper low nearly stationary over northern Mexico. Little movement is expected with this system today but by tonight the upper low will begin to slowly lift northeast towards the area, and is progged to be near the Big Bend region by early Saturday morning. Rain chances will increase areawide tonight, especially after midnight, as lift increases with the approaching upper low.
Moisture convergence along this boundary, low CAPE and upper level support from a series of disturbances bordering a cut-off low over north central Mexico will provide the setting for efficient rain producer slow moving thunderstorms. As the upper low moves eastward tonight through Saturday it will prompt additional convection into the area.
A cold front has now passed south of the forecast area, being followed by northerly flow of 4-8kt at most locations. The rest of the day will be sunny as as surface and 8h ridge builds across the Ozark Plateau east into the TN valley. The surface and 8h ridge shift southeast allowing south flow to begin redeveloping. At 5h, the ridge axis ahead of the upper low entering TX will shift into the mid MS valley through the eastern Gulf of Mexico. A few high clouds may start to enter the area as the upper ridge axis shifts east.
441 AM MDT Fri Apr 30 2021 A broad upper ridge sits over the western CONUS, with northwest flow over the northern plains. At the surface, a trough is over MT, and winds across the CWA are light and variable. Upper ridge axis will cross the central states Saturday, while an incoming Pac NW trough begins to flatten the ridge. Another warm day is expected Saturday (especially across central and southern SD), but cooler air will begin advecting into the region. Saturday evening, a period of unsettled weather will begin as the trough shifts eastward.
An upper level low will pass well south of Kansas through Saturday. The coolest readings around 80 are expected in south central Kansas, which will be closer to the effects of the upper low.
Current satellite imagery shows mostly clear skies across the area this morning as high pressure begins to build in from the northwest in the wake of yesterday's system. Temperatures are currently in the lower to mid 50s across most of the area, about ten degrees cooler than yesterday's low temperatures. Today will then be a relatively pleasant spring day for the Commonwealth with mostly sunny skies and temperatures warming into the lower to mid 70s this afternoon. A fairly tight pressure gradient between the departing low pressure system and approaching high pressure will result in breezy northwest winds during the day. Winds will then diminish tonight and as the center of the high pressure moves overhead, expect an even cooler night. Resulting return flow and clear skies lift temperatures into the low to mid 70s across much of the region.
/issued 345 AM CDT Fri Apr 30 2021/ WV imagery shows the upper trough centered over western Chihuahua, resulting in a rare, rainy night over West Texas and Southeast New Mexico.
956 AM EDT Fri Apr 30 2021 Cooler and drier air will continue to settle across the area today.
748 AM EDT Fri Apr 30 2021 A dry cold front will move through the area this morning followed by a dry and breezy day. High pressure for the weekend will keep area dry.
/issued 239 AM CDT Fri Apr 30 2021/ The upper low currently providing the region with rainfall is located over Sonora/Chihuahua and is showing little to no movement. Rain will push northward into the FA later this evening through the overnight hours as the upper low moves slowly eastward. Challenging upper low which has brought rain to parts of the area should approach the Big Bend region on Saturday morning. Guidance suggest a slow transition to the east over the weekend though this is happening under a subtle ridge positioned across the northern CONUS. Given the position of the low, over data sparse portions of NRN MX, this brings some uncertainty into the forecast over the next several days.
A weak cold front will move south past the terminals today. The low-level air mass will dry significantly tonight, so a clearing trend with no fog is indicated. A weak cold front is now moving south past Montgomery and Columbus GA.
/issued 411 AM CDT Fri Apr 30 2021/ A slightly cooler and drier day is in store for the Mid South. Expect more of the same for Saturday as high pressure builds in north of the forecast area.
Dry weather will continue for the remainder of the week with strong high pressure expected to bring near record warmth to the area today and Saturday.
408 AM MDT Fri Apr 30 2021 High pressure continues to dominate the western portion of the CONUS with low pressure off to the east over the Mid-Atlantic. Sunny skies and warm temperatures are expected to continue across the CWA as the region remains under an upper level ridge. Daytime highs for today are in the high 70s and 80s with continued warming into the 80s by Saturday. Today's afternoon humidities will fall into the low to mid teens and some elevated winds across Carbon and Albany Counties. Saturday afternoon should start to see some changes with the threat of thunderstorm activity Saturday evening with the preliminary cold front, tapering off into rain showers overnight.
611 AM EDT Fri Apr 30 2021 A dry cold frontal passage will occur this morning, then high pressure will build in behind the front with cooler temperatures expected on Saturday.
Today high pressure across the Northern Rockies will continue to weaken, resulting in one more day of above normal temperatures and gusty winds. Temperatures across NW Montana are likely to be cooler this afternoon due to increasing cloud cover. However, those areas across WC and SW Montana will likely be a few degrees warmer due to warming aloft and the extending temporal length of gusty conditions. This will keep low temperature up a bit in advance of the cold front Saturday morning.
354 AM MDT Fri Apr 30 2021 Flat upper ridge will be moving across the region today as a trof approaches the Pacific Northwest. Alberta lee low developing and will move east today, lifting a warm front across the region. A back door cold front trailing behind the low will provide enough mixing to bring the winds up again on Saturday. Overall conditions will not be as extreme as today, with cooler temperatures and slightly higher humidity, but could still support elevated fire weather conditions in the afternoon.
The cold front which passed through Middle Tennessee last evening is now to the east and south of the mid state as high pressure builds in from the northwest.
This as the local area stays with the ridge to the southeast and PWAT values over an inch over the area. Otherwise, temperatures will rise to the upper 80s along the coast and reach the lower 90s across the interior.
1027 AM EDT Fri Apr 30 2021 A dry cold front will continue shifting east of the area, with high pressure building in behind it. Warm, dry and breezy conditions will occur today, but cooler temperatures are expected for Saturday.
Until then, coastal areas should see a fair amount of "hazy sunshine" through the high clouds. This trough will induce a deeper marine layer and perhaps some showers north of Cape Mendocino tonight through Saturday morning. Northwesterly winds will increase on Saturday in the wake of this trough, resulting in greater cooling across the interior and more coastal cloud cover north of Cape Mendo.
646 AM CDT Fri Apr 30 2021 High pressure will continue over much of the area today. Today Through Saturday Night Upper low pressure is over northern Mexico with an upper trough along the east coast. The upper low will remain stationary today then slowly move east Saturday afternoon. The high then moves east of the area Saturday.
Smallish rain chances continue across the area tonight, but generally dry albeit humid conditions will prevail with cooler temperatures than we've seen in a few days, especially across interior SE TX and Central LA.
(Today and tonight) Latest water vapor satellite imagery shows the cutoff upper low nearly stationary over northern Mexico. Little movement is expected with this system today but by tonight the upper low will begin to slowly lift northeast towards the area, and is progged to be near the Big Bend region by early Saturday morning. Rain chances will increase areawide tonight, especially after midnight, as lift increases with the approaching upper low.
539 AM CDT Fri Apr 30 2021 A secondary cold front moved quickly through the region overnight, shifting winds northwesterly and advecting another shot of cool, dry air into the region.
Today will be a gloomy day as lingering showers behind a slow moving cold front continues to settle in.
Today and tonight: Northwesterly flow aloft will persist across the region as upper level ridging continues over the western states.
Main change for morning update was an increase in cloud cover over western and southern locations as clouds continue to stream over upper ridge. Trough/warm front stretches to the southeast along the lee of the Canadian Rockies into eastern Montana. Upper level analysis places ridge stretching from the Great Basin into the Northern Rockies. Quiet weather remains over our area with some mid to upper level clouds sliding down the front of the ridge. Aforementioned ridge broadens out while at the surface aforementioned warm front lifts through the area. A bit cooler temperatures are expected Saturday over western locations as thermal ridge shifts east, but some locations may still nudge 80 degrees.