Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
AS EARLY AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE LOWER 80S. THE CLOSED OFF LOW WILL WOBBLE JUST OFFSHORE THROUGH THE DAY BEFORE TRANSFORMING INTO AN OPEN WAVE TROUGH AND EXITING NORTHEAST LATER TONIGHT. THERE WILL STILL BE ENOUGH RESIDENT AVAILABLE MOISTURE WITH PEAKS OF SUN TO GENERATE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST MOVING PRECIPITATION AROUNDTHE BACKSIDE OF THIS LOW. SLIGHTLY WARMER TODAY AS MID TO LATE AFTERNOON CLOUDS BEGIN TO SCATTER OUT. BUT WARMER AFTERNOONS CLOSER TO 90 F AND COOLER MORNINGS IN THE 60S. RIDGING NUDGING INTO TEXAS AND OHIO VALLEY TROUGHING.
CLOUD COVER WILL AGAIN HOLD TEMPS TO THE LOWER/MID 80S. THE MID/UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO ENLONGATE FROM SW TO NE. A PREDOMINATE UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL CONTINUE DIGGING ACROSS THE EASTERN U. DML LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT OFF THE SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA COAST WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY LIGHT AS THE LOW SLOWLY MOVES EAST ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY.
300 AM PDT TUE SEP 29 2015 TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MID-WEEK WITH A TROUGH TO THE WEST AND A RIDGE TO THE EAST.
542 AM CDT TUE SEP 29 2015 12Z TAF CYCLE A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE THREE TAF SITES DURING THE DAY TODAY. WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE BUT MAINLY FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT 5 TO 15 KNOTS. AFTER A WARMER MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE POTENTIAL FOR COOLER AND WETTER WEATHER WILL HINGE LARGELY ON THE INTERACTION OF A COMPLEX PATTERN OF UPPER-LEVEL FEATURES.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WAS PUSHING SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE DAKOTAS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGION. TEMPERATURE READINGS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS OF 2 AM RANGED FROM THE LOWER/MIDDLE 50S ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL WI. TO THE LOWER/MIDDLE 60S ACROSS SOUTHWEST WI AND NORTHEAST IA. THEN EXITING SOUTHEAST BY LATE MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE REGION. COOL/DRY PUSH ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH WILL RESULT IN CLEARING SKIES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH WITH HIGHS TOPPING OFF IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS THE AREA WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT/CALM WINDS.
COOLER DAYS AHEAD. OVERVIEW: SHORT WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO PROGRESS THROUGH CENTRAL INTO EASTERN CANADA THIS MORNING. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM AND POCKET OF VERY DRY AIR HAS BEEN STEADILY BUILDING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST/NRN LAKES REGION. SFC COLD FRONT WILL GET SHUNTED DOWN THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AS WE GO THROUGH THE DAY. AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE NORTHWESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. STRONG PUSH OF COOLER AND DRIER AIR TAKES SHAPE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ON GUSTIER NORTHERLY WINDS AND WILL CLEAR THINGS OUT QUITE NICELY. HIGH PRESSURE AND COOL/DRY AIR SETTLES ACROSS THE NRN GREAT LAKES REGION. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE FALL WEATHER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. WHICH WILL SEEM EVEN COOLER WITH THE GUSTY WINDS.
NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW A COLD FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL SLOWLY CROSS INDIANA FROM TODAY INTO TONIGHT. THE HOOSIER STATE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ON THE EAST SIDE OF A VERY LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES DEEP INTO CANADA.
WITH THE AREA SITTING BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED SOUTH OF CA OVER THE BAJA. WHILE LOW PRESSURE SPINS OVER THE HUDSON BAY AREA. THE MAIN COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS PUSHED THROUGH NRN PORTIONS OF KS. THE LOWER LEVEL STRATUS HAS BEEN A BIT SLOW TO BUILD INTO THE CWA. THE COOLER AIR MASS LINGERS. STILL EXPECTED COOLER LOWS THAN THIS MORNING.
UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT TO EAST AND NORTHEAST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO THE WEST WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT BACK TO THE EAST A BIT.
ESPECIALLY DUE TO THE LOW NEAR THE GULF COAST. WITH SHOWERS POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY AS THE LOW MOVES EASTWARD.
335 AM CDT TUE SEP 29 2015 EARLY THIS MORNING A WEAK UPPER-DECK LOW WAS SITUATED OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY WHILE A BROAD UPPER-DECK WAVE EXTENDED FROM HUDSON BAY TO ND & MN. DOWNSTAIRS THE COLD FRONT THAT HAS BEEN A TOPIC OF CONSIDERABLE DISCUSSION SINCE LAST WEEKEND HAD CREPT S/SE INTO N & NW KS WITH BOUNDARY ENCROACHING UPON KRSL. TODAY: THE BEHAVIOR OF THE AFORE-MENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DRAW CONSIDERABLE ATTENTION. A 3RD (& STRONGER) MID-UPPER TROUGH THAT'LL LIKEWISE ALSO PUSH E ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS FRI & FRI NIGHT WILL INDUCE LOWER-DECK CYCLOGENESIS OVER PRIMARILY EASTERN NM. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THIS FORECAST.
133 AM EDT TUE SEP 29 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TONIGHT THEN ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO AND NW PA ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WILL SLOWLY SPREAD OVER THE REST OF THE LAKES BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT THEN REMAIN IN PLACE INTO THE WEEKEND. CLOUD COVER WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER WARM NIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S. A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY WITH CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF IT. THE REGION WILL DRY QUICKLY IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT BUT THE COLDER AIR FLOWING ACROSS LAKE ERIE ALWAYS SEEMS TO KEEP CLOUD COVER AND A FEW SHOWERS A BIT LONGER THAN THE MODELS INDICATE.
307 AM MDT TUE SEP 29 2015 AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG SYSTEM DRIFTING ACROSS THE HIGHER LATITUDES OF EASTERN NOAM HAS FORCED THE WESTERN RIDGE BACK INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING. MOISTURE TOPPING THE RIDGE IN THE VICINITY OF THE UPPER JET AND MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE IS KEEPING ISOLATED SHOWERS GOING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE RIDGE WILL BE REBOUNDING TO OUR WEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE WAA ALOFT STARTING TO BUILD A STRONGER CAP. IS LIKELY TO FORCE TERRAIN CIRCULATIONS STRONG ENOUGH TO POP SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG THE RIDGETOPS. SHEAR IS WEAKENING SO DO NOT THINK THE LOWER VALLEYS WILL BENEFIT. THE RIDGE AXIS AMPLIFIES OVER OUR CWA LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
AN ELONGATED TROUGH REMAINS POSITIONED TO THE EAST OF OK. FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TO THE TX GULF COAST. THE POSITIVELY TILTED RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN SLOWLY INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS OF TX/CO/KS. WITH THE RIDGE ESTABLISHED. GUIDANCE BEGINS TO STRUGGLE AS AN EXPANSIVE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A STOUT HUDSON BAY LOW BECOMES STRETCHED FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE NRN CO/SWRN NEB.
AND WITH DRIER AIR POISED TO MOVE IN BEHIND A COLD FRONT LATE THIS WEEK. THE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE GENERAL VICINITY OF THE UPPER TX COAST/SW LA IS NOW IN THE PROCESS OF OPENING UP. AND IT SHOULD SHEAR EASTWARD AS HEIGHT FALLS SEND A A COLD FRONT INTO OUR REGION. BUT THERE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT LIFT WITH THE WEAKENING UPPER LOW TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS GIVEN DAYTIME HEATING BOTH TODAY AND TOMORROW.
341 AM CDT TUE SEP 29 2015 A SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH THE CWA THIS MORNING. FORCING IS QUICK TO EXIT SOUTH OF THE REGION THIS MORNING AS DRY/COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND SO HAVE TAPERED PCPN CHANCES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH FAIRLY QUICKLY THIS MORNING. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID WEEK AS UPPER RIDGING AMPLIFIES TO OUR WEST.
UPPER RIDGE OVER OUR CWA WILL CONTINUE WARM DRY WEATHER THROUGH TONIGHT. ON WEDNESDAY THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST AS A PACIFIC TROUGH NEARS THE COAST.
325 AM CDT TUE SEP 29 2015 THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS IS FINALLY STARTING TO MOVE EASTWARD. THIS SYSTEM WILL OPEN UP AS IT MOVES EAST AND NORTHEAST AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS FROM WEST.
A BOUNDARY LIFTING NORTHWARD AHEAD OF AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED CURRENTLY OVER THE FL PANHANDLE /WILL PUSH NEWD ACROSS FAR SE GA BY THIS EVENING/. AND ANY MID-LEVEL PERTURBATIONS EAST OF THE DAMPENING UPPER TROUGH. WPC QPF SEEMED ON THE HIGH SIDE OVERALL SO TRENDED WITH BLEND OF OTHER GUIDANCE AND REMOVED BULLSEYES. ALTHOUGH THE DAMPENING UPPER LOW STARTS TO PHASE WITH THE MAIN LONGWAVE TROUGH ENERGY. OVERALL CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS UPPER TROUGH AND ENHANCED MOISTURE FIELD SHOULD LINGER IN REGION AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES ACROSS AREA FROM THE NW. 500MB TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA UNTIL THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND.
THE BASE OF A 250 MB UPPER TROUGH IS ACROSS THE LAKE SUPERIOR AREA THIS MORNING WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. THEN TROUGH MOVES EAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH A WEAKER SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. 850 MB RH IS DRY BY NOON BUT 925 MB RH STAYS BETWEEN 60 AND 80 PCT OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST DUE TO THE LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST WINDS OFF LAKE MICHIGAN. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE OFF TO THE SOUTH BY LATE MORNING. THEN AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FOR ALONG WITH QUIET BUT COOLER CONDITIONS.
IT WAS CLOUDY AND MILD ACROSS THE MID STATE EARLY THIS MORNING, WITH TEMPERATURES HANGING IN THE LOWER 70S. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE LOWER AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL PROVIDE A VERY MOIST FLOW OF AIR UP ACROSS THE MID STATE TODAY, WITH SHOWERS BECOMING NUMEROUS OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY, ALONG WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT, EXPECT A SLIGHTLY GREATER TEMP RISE, WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S OVER EASTERN AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES.
341 AM EDT TUE SEP 29 2015 IT WILL FINALLY START TO FEEL LIKE FALL LATER TODAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION AND COOLER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND IT. DRIER AND COOLER AIR CAN BE EXPECTED TONIGHT. WILL STILL SEE TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL TODAY DUE TO VERY WARM START AND FRONTAL TIMING BUT COOLER AIR ARRIVES BY TONIGHT. NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL CANADA TODAY WITH SHORT WAVE TROUGH INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL DRIVE A WEAKENING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AND MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL FOLLOW TONIGHT.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED JUST EAST OF HOUSTON WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN ALLOWING AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO OPEN UP THE UPPER LEVEL LOW INTO A TROUGH AND MOVE IT EAST TO A SOUTHEASTERN STATES TO CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO AXIS BY WEDNESDAY WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING INTO TEXAS.
LOW STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG REMAINS OVER MOST OF THE HIGH PLAINS EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. THERE IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT MOST OF WESTERN NEBRASKA WILL STAY IN THE LOW CLOUDS TODAY. MODELS ALL SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS AMPLIFYING ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.
625 AM EDT TUE SEP 29 2015 A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY AND CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT CONTINUES AS DOES THE DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS. A DRY AND STABLE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT BENEATH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HRS WITH LITTLE OR NO CLOUD-COVER OVER THE REGION.
COOLER TEMPS ALONG WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAKING TRANSITION THRU THE REGION.
25 INCHES) AHEAD OF A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. A LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING TO THE U. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF DEVELOPED A CLOSED LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THIS TROUGH WILL ACT TO KEEP T. RECENT RUNS OF THE ECMWF DEVELOP JOAQUIN INTO A HURRICANE WHILE MOVING SLOWLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND TOWARDS THE EASTERN BAHAMAS BEFORE THE TROUGH DRIVES JOAQUIN AWAY. FLORIDA WILL BE UNDER THE TROUGH'S INFLUENCE WHICH IS GOOD NEWS. AS THIS TROUGH MOVES SLOWLY EAST MID-LATE WEEK.
409 AM EDT TUE SEP 29 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TODAY. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL WORK THROUGH THE FA TODAY. WITH EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER IN PLACE TODAY AND WITH THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE REGION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM.
TEMPERATURES WERE MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID 30S MOST AREAS. LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS IN WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA ARE FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW AND STRETCH ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA TODAY.
308 AM EDT TUE SEP 29 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH TODAY AND PUSH ACROSS THE STATE TONIGHT. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG THE COAST WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL PROVIDE FOCUS FOR ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE STREAMING NORTH AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. STRONG SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS FRONT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEMS TO THE NORTH IN CANADA AND TO THE EAST IN THE ATLANTIC WILL PROVIDE LIFT AND ENHANCE RAINFALL ALONG, AND JUST NORTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
WARMER CONDS EXPECTED TODAY. WITH EVEN WARMER TEMPS ON WED AS HEIGHT RISES SPREAD EAST INTO THE REGION. THERMAL RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW. LOOK FOR MUCH WARMER TEMPS WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S MOST PLACES.
THE EVER PRESENT MID/UPPER RIDGE. COOLER AIR ALOFT WITH THIS FEATURE WILL YIELD 6.
THIS WILL BE REPLACED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. LINGERING UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS LEFT OVER FROM UPPER LOW WILL STILL BE ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY.
THE MODELS SHOW A FEW MORE WEAK WAVES COMING ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST BEFORE THE LARGE WESTERN US TROUGH KICKS NORTHEAST AND INTO SOUTHERN CANADA THROUGH SUNDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE UPPER TROUGH IN CANADA SWINGING WINDS AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST WITH IT BECOMING BREEZY/WINDY. FORECAST IS DOMINATED BY AN UPPER LOW THAT TRANSITIONS ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA.
SHORT TERM: (Through Late This Afternoon) Expect yet another warm day today as high temperatures should climb once again into the lower-mid 90s under mainly sunny skies. Mixing down 850mb temperatures around +20C support high temperatures in the lower-mid 90s. However, much like yesterday, there will be the mid-level ridge axis over the region that should suppress thunderstorm development, so will leave forecast dry for now.
JET SUPPORT REMAINS STRETCHED SW-NE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND PRECIP WATER VALUES ARE NEAR ONE INCH IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. A FEW DAYS OF NICE WEATHER ON TAP AS LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS NORTH AND THE ASSOD TROUGH FORCES THE MOISTURE STREAM TO OUR EAST.
WEAKENING MID LEVEL DISTURBANCES GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO HIGH PRESSURE DURING THIS LABOR DAY WEEKEND. IN LIGHT FLOW IN A COLL AREA BETWEEN UPPER LEVEL HIGHS TO THE E AND SW. AND UPPER LEVEL LOWS TO THE S AND N. UPPER RIDGE HOLDS ACROSS EASTERN U. COULD SEE AN ISOLATED STORM SNEAK DOWN INTO THE LOWLANDS. RIDGE WILL START TO FLATTEN OUT ACROSS THE AREA LATE IN THE PERIOD. WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT.
517 AM CDT SAT SEP 5 2015 UPPER RIDGING EVIDENT OVER THE AREA WITH SUPPRESSED CONVECTION AND LIGHT/CALM WINDS AND SOME PATCHY FOG.
333 AM EDT SAT SEP 5 2015 A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS WEEKEND, RESULTING IN GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH WARM DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS. AN ISOLATED SHOWER IS POSSIBLE OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BUT THE NEXT REAL CHANCE FOR RAIN WON'T BE UNTIL MID-WEEK ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT PASSAGE.
THIS IS ALL COURTESY OF A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM, COVERING MUCH OF THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW IS EVIDENT IN THE LOW-LEVELS THIS EVENING, AS JUDGED FROM RECENT VAD WIND PROFILES AND 00Z SOUNDINGS. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POPPING UP LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHEAST PA, AND OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NY'S SOUTHERN TIER. FINE LATE SUMMERTIME WEATHER SHOULD CHARACTERIZE THE LONG HOLIDAY WEEKEND FOR CENTRAL NY/NORTHEAST PA, WITH A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SURFACE AND ALOFT IN FIRM CONTROL.
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED THAT THE MID LEVEL CIRCULATION FROM WEAKENING TS KEVIN HAS BROKEN AWAY FROM THE LOW LEVELS AND IS BEING LIFTED NE ACROSS CENTRAL BAJA WITH EYES ON SE AZ. MOISTURE REMAINING IN PLACE ON SUNDAY FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH HIGHS SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN TODAY.
MODELS ARE SHOWING CONSENSUS THAT SOUTH TEXAS SHOULD HAVE WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. UPPER RIDGE BECOMES STRONGER ON SATURDAY BUT STILL ENOUGH MOISURE OVER THE NORTHEAST TO GENERATE SOME SHOWERS. WHICH MEANS A BIT WARMER EACH DAY. WITH ABOUT THE SAME TEMPERATURES (MAYBE A DEGREE COOLER) AS OBSERVED TONIGHT.
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL RANGING FROM THE LOW 90S SOUTH TO LOWER 80S NORTH. SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY LOW PRESSURE AND HIGHER MOISTURE ENVIRONMENT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY LEADING TO LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY BEFORE DRIER AIR IS BROUGHT IN. CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 91 69 88 68 / 30 20 30 10 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 89 68 85 67 / 40 20 40 10 OAK RIDGE, TN 90 68 86 67 / 30 20 30 10 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 85 63 84 64 / 30 20 30 20.
Southerly winds are expected to continue through tomorrow as lee troughing continues to be positioned across eastern Colorado.
SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVED THROUGH OUR CWA FROM WEST TO EAST LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY EVENING WITH GUSTY WINDS. AT 08Z SATELLITE SHOWED THE UPPER LOW IN ERN OREGON. MODELS TAKE THE UPPER LOW TOWARD THE NORTHEAST TODAY WITH THE SHOWERS MOVING INTO WRN IDAHO.
SURFACE COLD FRONT JUST ABOUT TO EXIT EASTERN IDAHO THIS MORNING WITH A WEAK TROUGH EXTENDING TOWARD THE PANHANDLE FROM THE CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE OVER SE IDAHO THIS MORNING. DEEP UPPER TROUGH TO AID IN ISOLATED/SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. INFLUENCES OF THIS TROUGH TO QUICKLY EXIT OUR AREA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT LEAVING HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN TOMORROW.
AS STATED IN PREVIOUS FORECAST THE BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY WILL BE ON THE PLATEAU WITH BETTER PROXIMITY TO THE WEAK UPPER LOW AS WELL AS A BIT MORE MOISTURE PER MODEL SOUNDINGS. SUNDAY WILL SEE THE CHANCES FOR PRECIP SPREAD FURTHER WEST AS THE UPPER LOW SLIDES WESTWARD.
348 AM EDT SAT SEP 5 2015 A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS WEEKEND, RESULTING IN GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH WARM DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS. AN ISOLATED SHOWER IS POSSIBLE OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BUT THE NEXT REAL CHANCE FOR RAIN WON'T BE UNTIL MID-WEEK ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT PASSAGE.
A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL MOVE SOUTH ALONG THE EAST COAST THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
THIS SYSTEM WILL BE REPLACED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. AN UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW CONTINUES TO ROTATE OVER THE LOWER PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN THIS MORNING. THIS LOW IS SANDWICHED BETWEEN AN UPPER HIGH TO OUR EAST AND TO OUR WEST. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST THAT SOME CONVECTION MAY OCCUR THIS MORNING NEAR OUR NW ZONES DUE TO ITS PROXIMITY TO THE LOW AND A WEAK LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY. UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL OPEN UP AND SHEAR AS IT BEGINS TO LIFT NORTH. IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE VERY WARM FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO THE LOWER 90S. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL STRETCH FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS NORTHEAST THROUGH OUR REGION.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL GYRATE AROUND NC THROUGH THE WEEKEND. UPPER AIR AND SATELLITE DATA DEPICT AN ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE NC/VA COAST NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. A PAIR OF UPPER LOWS WERE ANALYZED WITHIN THE TROUGH AXIS - ONE OVER CENTRAL NC AND THE OTHER OVER SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN. THE ONLY APPRECIABLE EVIDENCE OF A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT THIS EVENING IS STILL WELL NE OF OUR AREA.
ridging aloft will keep it hot/humid with above normal temps/dew points through the Holiday weekend continuing. By Labor Day, some energy aloft is approaching the Great Lakes and dampening the arc of the upper ridge somewhat at least. By then, the dominant mid/upper ridge over our region should have been mostly replaced by increasingly cyclonic flow with periodic embedded shrtwv energy moving through. The deterministic GEM shows a deeper low pressure system over the Great Lakes than the GFS/ECMWF do, dragging a sfc cold front through our region by mid week.
DEWPOINTS ARE AVERAGING FROM THE LOWER 70S ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY/SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU TO THE UPPER 70S ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS. CANT BE RULE OUT SINCE THERE IS AN INVERTED TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE AREA AND THAT WILL BE ENOUGH OF A LIFT FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN/PRECIP(IN SPITE OF FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING DRY CONDITIONS FROM THE SURFACE TO ABOUT 6KFT).
140 AM EDT SAT SEP 5 2015 WIDE RANGE OF CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TAF SITES WITH FREQUENT FLUCTUATIONS BETWEEN CRITERIA AS WE RESIDE UNDER THE WOBBLING UPPER LOW. TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH LOW PRESSURE PIVOTING TO THE NORTH NORTHWEST AND SLOWLY AWAY FROM THE AREA. WITH LOW LEVEL TROUGH AXIS STILL DRAPED BACK SOUTH OVER LOWER MICHIGAN TONIGHT FROM THIS LOW.
650 AM EDT SAT SEP 5 2015 A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
CLOSED LOW AT 500 MB OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF MOVING EAST. DOWNSTREAM RIDGE CONTINUES TO BRING WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION.
WL CONTINUE SMALL POPS THIS AFTERNOON OVER MOST OF CWA DUE TO LINGERING INSTABILITY AND CLOSE PROXIMITY OF UPPER LOW OVER LOWER MI. UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE OVER NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS WILL NUDGE LOWER MI LOW FARTHER NORTHEAST AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE WESTERN GTLAKES LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. MEDIUM 591DM RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS NEWD THROUGH NRN IL INTO LWR MI. LLJ PROGGD TO REMAIN FOCUSED TO OUR NW WITH PRIMARY SURFACE/850 TROUGH TO THE WEST IN THE PLAINS. THERMAL RIDGE WILL BE IN PLACE WITH 925 TEMPS OF 25 TO 27C SO EXPECTING TEMPS WELL INTO THE 80S WITH A FEW LOCALES POSSIBLY ECLIPSING THE 90 DEGREE MARK.
HAVE MADE LITTLE CHANGES AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE AREA HAS RESULTED IN CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. TEMPS RIGHT NOW IN THE LOW TO MID 70S ARE ON TRACK TO MAKE IT DOWN INTO THE MID-UPPER 60S FORECAST AREA WIDE BY MORNING.
226 AM EDT SAT SEP 5 2015 A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN WARM AND MAINLY FAIR WEATHER THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. LITTLE CHANGE FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AS RIDGING CONTINUES TO DOMINATE. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S EXCEPT A LITTLE COOLER IN THE CATSKILLS.
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN EARLY THIS MORNING FEATURES BROAD RIDGING ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS. A WEAK UPPER LOW/SHEAR AXIS EVIDENT ON WV IMAGERY WAS NEAR THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE PERIOD. WILL GO WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S ONCE AGAIN. SO WILL GO A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER ACROSS THE BOARD.
437 AM CDT SAT SEP 5 2015 UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED ACROSS TX CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE REGION AND WILL KEEP US HOT AND MOSTLY DRY THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
310 AM CDT SAT SEP 5 2015 The upper level ridge over the region will continue the summer like weather across the Ozarks today and through tonight. In all, the Labor Day weekend looks to remain warm and humid with highs around 90 degrees today and overnight lows remaining in the lower 70s for most of the area.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INLAND ACROSS CALIFORNIA THIS WEEKEND WILL BRING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH SUNDAY.
A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA BY THE AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO WEDGE SOUTH FROM NEW ENGLAND TO THE APPALACHIANS. NE FLOW RESULTS IN SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS ALONG THE COASTAL COUNTIES WHERE MAX TEMPS STAY IN THE 80S WHILE AREAS WELL INLAND STILL REACH THE LOWER 90S. SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS ALOFT RESULTS IN HIGHER INSTABILITY AND WITH INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW EXPECTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG THE COAST DURING THE LATE MORNING AND SPREADING INLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON. WITH LOW PRESSURE/INVERTED TROUGH OFFSHORE THE FL ATLANTIC COAST.
651 AM EDT SAT SEP 5 2015 A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN WARM AND MAINLY FAIR WEATHER THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. LITTLE CHANGE FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AS RIDGING CONTINUES TO DOMINATE. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S EXCEPT A LITTLE COOLER IN THE CATSKILLS.
600 AM CDT SAT SEP 5 2015 The upper level ridge over the region will continue the summer like weather across the Ozarks today and through tonight. In all, the Labor Day weekend looks to remain warm and humid with highs around 90 degrees today and overnight lows remaining in the lower 70s for most of the area.