Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
344 AM EDT Fri May 13 2022 Dry conditions and warmer temperature can be expected through Friday. Ridging will maintain mainly dry and warm weather through tonight. Low shower chances return SE of PIT later on Friday as moisture and ascent increases on the nrn side of an upper low retrograding across the SE CONUS.
218 AM EDT Fri May 13 2022 Rain chances will continue today as low pressure funnels moisture from the Atlantic Ocean westward toward the Appalachian Mountains. Upper low is currently centered right along the coastline of the Carolinas. Most areas of fog have been confined to the higher ridgetops owing to the low cloud base and easterly flow banking up against the mountains. Rain shower chances continue today and may be a bit more widespread as the upper low positions itself better for our region to see a more classic east/southeast flow. A closed low over the western Carolinas on Friday gradually opens up by Saturday morning and lifts northward, eventually becoming embedded in a large scale trough over Canada and the northern states.
Better moisture convergence in place on the western edge of an upper low centered over southeastern Georgia and the northern Florida peninsula is producing this cloud cover. This upper low will shift northwestward during the day. In those locations, highs should still be able to reach the lower to mid 80s. Increased cloud cover this morning and afternoon to account for westward progression of the cloud cover/precipitation on the western edge of the upper low.
546 AM MDT Fri May 13 2022 A longwave trough remains over the northern Rockies today, leading to slightly cooler than average temperatures. There is not much moisture available for this trough, but scattered mountain snow showers are possible throughout the day. Temperatures warm by about 5 degrees as geopotential heights begin to increase ahead of a building ridge. This quickly exits the region as high pressure builds across the region.
The upcoming rain chances will result from more subtle fronts and weak short waves while favoring the overnight periods when the low level jet will add some convective support.
659 AM EDT Fri May 13 2022 Low pressure slowly moves west today spreading a few showers with isolated thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening.
A shallow ridge builds over the region late tonight as another Pacific disturbance rotates into the Oregon/Washington coast Saturday morning. Zonal upper level flow looks to stream some of this moisture into the region, mainly across the higher terrain of the central and eastern mountains on Saturday morning and afternoon. Weak ridging will allow for warmer temperatures, and thus higher snow levels, so precip should be rain below 7500 ft or so and above that accumulations would only be 1-2 inches so nothing overly impactful expected.
/Issued 420 AM EDT Fri May 13 2022/ Upper cutoff low will continue retrograding westward into the area today under the large scale blocking pattern aloft. The low looks to dampen northward for Saturday along with a weak disturbance approaching from the NW so have chance pops in the northern CWA with slight chance elsewhere. While temps should be limited to below climo norms today (many locations in upper 70s for highs) given aforementioned moisture and upper low influence, we get back to near normal for Saturday with much of the area reaching the low to mid 80s. Baker By Sat night the main area of low pressure that has been over the area for a few days will have weakened and absorbed in the over all flow.
(Today and tonight) A cold front has made its way into northwest Oklahoma this morning and is expected to slow down and stall across southwest to north central Oklahoma by early afternoon. Slightly cooler temperatures (mid to upper 80s) will arrive behind the front in northern Oklahoma.
Mid- level flow tilts more to the northwest on Saturday as a ridge begins to build over the West Coast, but otherwise expect little change in sensible weather.
High pressure will bring a continuation of dry weather and a significant warming trend through the weekend.
Rest of the cwa remains clear or mostly clear at this hour, with temperatures in the low to mid 70s. Highs will accordingly be a bit cooler than yesterday in our south and east, ranging from the upper 70s on the Plateau to low to mid 80s in our south.
Strong high pressure will build into the desert southwest from it's anchor over southern Baja over the next 48 hours.
1010 AM EDT Fri May 13 2022 Low pressure slowly moves west today spreading a few showers with isolated thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening.
Some fog should be expected along and near the coast, as well as across the mountains as warmer, humid air moves across colder coastal waters and across the snowpack.
318 AM MDT Fri May 13 2022 Intense stacked low pressure system (992mb surface) was spinning over ND. A cold front trailed from the low across central IA and east central KS. The High Wind Warning for I-25 between Chugwater and Wheatland remains in effect today as the 700/850mb gradients are progged to increase above 60 mtrs by 12Z, then gradually wane through the late morning and afternoon. High temperatures today will range from the lower 60s to mid 70s, and mid 60s to upper 70s Saturday.
Light and variable winds expected across MLU/ELD today with southwest around 5 to 10 knots elsewhere through the afternoon with the higher wind speed values across east Texas terminals. /Today through Saturday/ A slight shift in the pattern is expected within the short term period as an upper-level low across the east Coast of Florida shifts west into the Carolina's before being absorbed across the Great Lake Region on Saturday by a more progressive trough. This upper-low will help to slightly weaken the persistent ridge that has brought unseasonably hot conditions to the region over the past week. High temperatures today to range from around 90 across east Texas and southeast Oklahoma to the lower to mid 90s elsewhere. On Saturday, most of the region can expect highs in the lower 90s.
530 AM MDT Fri May 13 2022 Water vapor shows upper trof over the northwestern CONUS with upper low over western ND. Have expanded the high wind warning into Ziebach county while also adding Haakon county to the advisory, and also extended the ending time to 00Z.
/issued 331 AM CDT Fri May 13 2022/ A back door cold front will usher in a bit of relief from the recent heat as well as a chance of rain and thunderstorms today. High temperatures today are expected to be at least 5-10 degrees cooler than yesterday. General rain and thunderstorms are expected to continue tonight and Saturday as a weakening upper low approaches the Midsouth from the southeast and a dissipating cold front approaches from the northwest.
552 AM EDT Fri May 13 2022 Mainly dry conditions and warmer temperature continues today before shower and thunderstorm chances return for the weekend. A slight chance of isolated showers and storms return south and east of PGH later today as moisture and ascent increases on the nrn side of an upper low retrograding across the SE CONUS. The mentioned upper low is progged to begin to phase with a northern stream trough Saturday as it crosses the Upper Ohio Valley region, returning shower and tstm chances to the forecast.
A closed mid/upper level low will drift northwest over portions of GA/SC today.
523 AM MDT Fri May 13 2022 Intense stacked low pressure system (992mb surface) was spinning over ND. A cold front trailed from the low across central IA and east central KS. The High Wind Warning for I-25 between Chugwater and Wheatland remains in effect today as the 700/850mb gradients are progged to increase above 60 mtrs by 12Z, then gradually wane through the late morning and afternoon. High temperatures today will range from the lower 60s to mid 70s, and mid 60s to upper 70s Saturday.
Scattered showers and lightning storms ongoing across the local coastal waters (Gulf Stream) this morning, in part due to troughing as well as cooler temps aloft.
Temperatures are on track to make the highs currently in the forecast today, and the 12z ILN sounding puts the expected max T at 81. The H5 ridge finally propagates to our east Saturday night, with a trough pushing in from the west.
The dry air will also slow the development and eastward movement of thunderstorms this afternoon ahead of a cold front. Another upper trough and reinforcing push of cooler air will move across the area Saturday afternoon and evening. Very dry air in the low levels, strong mid level winds and steep mid level lapse rates could produce storms with damaging winds and large hail.
742 AM EDT Fri May 13 2022 Mainly dry conditions and warmer temperature continues today before shower and thunderstorm chances return for the weekend. A slight chance of isolated showers and storms return south and east of PGH later today as moisture and ascent increases on the nrn side of an upper low retrograding across the SE CONUS. The mentioned upper low is progged to begin to phase with a northern stream trough Saturday as it crosses the Upper Ohio Valley region, returning shower and tstm chances to the forecast.
337 AM MDT Fri May 13 2022 A longwave trough remains over the northern Rockies today, leading to slightly cooler than average temperatures. There is not much moisture available for this trough, but scattered mountain snow showers are possible throughout the day. Temperatures warm by about 5 degrees as geopotential heights begin to increase ahead of a building ridge. This quickly exits the region as high pressure builds across the region.
A pacific cold front continues to push across eastern Washington into the Northern Rockies this morning. Gusty westerly winds will develop area wide behind the cold front late this morning through the afternoon. High confidence (80% or higher probability) exists for below freezing temperatures along the divide. Highs will only manage the mid to upper-50s across western Montana valleys and will reach into the low 60s across lower elevations of central Idaho.
429 AM MDT Fri May 13 2022 While the trough axis exits our region to the north, our area will remain in a zonal flow. Thus, at the surface this morning, we'll start in the southwesterly flow which will draw warmer air to parts of South Park, Palmer Divide and eastern plains. Expect warmer lows compared to yesterday for all areas as cloud cover increases through early Saturday morning.
550 AM CDT Fri May 13 2022 (Today and tonight) A cold front has made its way into northwest Oklahoma this morning and is expected to slow down and stall across southwest to north central Oklahoma by early afternoon. Slightly cooler temperatures (mid to upper 80s) will arrive behind the front in northern Oklahoma.
Warm and dry conditions will continue on Friday as narrow upper ridging remains over Central Indiana. An upper trough over the Northern Plains and a retrograding upper low over the southeast will help break down the upper ridge. With the upper ridge breaking down expect some high clouds to develop during the day Friday as the retrograding upper low over the Southeast approaches the region. Expect temperatures to fall into the low to mid 60s overnight as dewpoints remain near 60 degrees. The overall pattern will shift on Saturday as the upper ridge dissipates and a remnant frontal boundary moves through the area. The aforementioned retrograding upper low will be absorbed by a strong jet stream that extends from the West Coast to the Great Lakes.
BW Chattanooga Airport, TN 82 62 85 63 87 / 20 10 30 20 30 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 80 60 83 62 83 / 40 10 40 30 40 Oak Ridge, TN 80 60 83 61 84 / 30 10 40 30 30 Tri Cities Airport, TN 77 56 79 58 80 / 50 20 50 30 50.
A weak wave moving across the northern Rockies will be pulled into the low, and combined with the residual moisture, should produce scattered showers in areas where partial clearing occurs this afternoon. As the wave gets absorbed into the upper low, showers will linger in the far northeast tonight, before the system moves far enough away by Saturday morning. The weekend will feature dry weather and warming temperatures as an upper ridge builds across the state. By midweek the ridge breaks down and Pacific jet pushes through the northern Rockies.
411 AM CDT Fri May 13 2022 High pressure aloft that has brought the record heat of the past couple of days will finally begin to break down today and Saturday as we become squeezed between an upper low across the southeast U. and an upper trof out over the Plains.
/issued 315 AM CDT Fri May 13 2022/ SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday): A 500 mb ridge of high pressure will remain the dominant feature over Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley during the period.
High pressure aloft that has brought the record heat of the past couple of days will finally begin to break down today and Saturday as we become squeezed between an upper low across the southeast U. and an upper trof out over the Plains.
Additional storm development is still possible late this afternoon/early evening near the cold front that has moved across portions of western OK so far this morning and is expected to stall later this afternoon. (Today and tonight) A cold front has made its way into northwest Oklahoma this morning and is expected to slow down and stall across southwest to north central Oklahoma by early afternoon. Slightly cooler temperatures (mid to upper 80s) will arrive behind the front in northern Oklahoma.
Expect a warmup today after this cool week, especially inland, as a ridge builds over the region coupled with a significant warming of the air mass aloft.
Gusty winds have developed behind the cold front that brought widespread rainfall and mountain snow this morning. North-central Idaho will receive the bulk of the precipitation, where another quarter of an inch is expected in the lower elevations, and around one-half inches in the mountains.
256 PM EDT Fri May 13 2022 An upper low will provide a chance of showers and a few thunderstorms today. The upper low will open and shift NE Saturday, with scattered showers and some thunderstorms favoring E and NE areas.
Kept precip chances on the lower end for now given confidence isn't very high with this round of precip.
An occluded front arced northeast and the southeastward into northwest Ontario to a cold front over western Upper Michigan south into eastern Iowa. Isentropic lift along and behind the cold front will support a chance of showers and perhaps a thunderstorm over northwest Wisconsin late this afternoon into this evening. A secondary area of low pressure will develop over South Dakota overnight along with a weak cold front.
The highest gusts have been across the far northern tier of counties in the CWA. The High Wind Warning and Wind Advisory continue. As for temperatures, low level thermal progs on Saturday are ~3-5C cooler at 925hpa and 850hpa than what they likely will top out at this afternoon.
From the 13th/12z data, seems this will be classic cold front causing storms to develop east of US-131 during the early to mid afternoon. Skies will gradually become mostly cloudy on Saturday as a cold front moves into the region.
Zonal flow finally develops mid to late week, with the Atlantic ridge axis dominant across the central Florida peninsula.
SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday Night): Abnormally hot, breezy, and rain-free weather will prevail through the short-term period, courtesy of a potent 500 mb ridge centered over the southern tip of Baja California. At the surface, high pressure will continue to be parked over the central Gulf of Mexico through Saturday, providing moderate to breezy southeast winds, breeziest during the afternoon hours. Conditions Saturday will be nearly a carbon copy of today, with highs generally reaching the low-mid-90s east of I-69C to mid-upper-90s (and possibly lower 100s in Zapata and western Starr Counties) west of I-69C; partly/mostly cloudy skies will turn mostly sunny by the afternoon.
Tonight and Saturday A weak cold front will move into the area this afternoon and evening, eventually meeting with the developing lake breeze. Both damaging wind and hail will again be a threat today, as soundings ahead of the front show an inverted V in the lower levels, which will support any thunderstorm outflow and mark some downburst potential. Saturday Night Through Friday There may be some lingering showers and thunderstorms Saturday evening into the hours just after midnight as a cold front tracks through the region.
High pressure will bring much warmer temperatures and a continuation of dry conditions through the weekend.
An upper level low gradually shifts northeast across the southeastern U. into the Mid Atlantic states opening up into a trough with the axis of the trough stretching from the eastern Gulf of Mexico to the northeastern U. At the surface, transient high pressure begins to slowly build across the Gulf of Mexico into the gulf coast states through Saturday.
1239 PM EDT Fri May 13 2022 An upper low will provide a chance of showers and a few thunderstorms today. The upper low will open and shift NE Saturday, with scattered showers and some thunderstorms favoring E and NE areas.
325 PM EDT Fri May 13 2022 An upper level low pressure center will track northwest from the southeast coast today and evolve into an open wave as it moves north along the Appalachians tonight. As the upper low opens into an open wave, the center is progged to be over the CWA at 12z Saturday, which will result in increased cloud cover and slightly lower temperatures in the lower 80s to near 80 degrees.
1151 AM MDT Fri May 13 2022 Intense stacked low pressure system (992mb surface) was spinning over ND. A cold front trailed from the low across central IA and east central KS. The High Wind Warning for I-25 between Chugwater and Wheatland remains in effect today as the 700/850mb gradients are progged to increase above 60 mtrs by 12Z, then gradually wane through the late morning and afternoon. High temperatures today will range from the lower 60s to mid 70s, and mid 60s to upper 70s Saturday.
1112 AM MDT Fri May 13 2022 Water vapor shows upper trof over the northwestern CONUS with upper low over western ND. Have expanded the high wind warning into Ziebach county while also adding Haakon county to the advisory, and also extended the ending time to 00Z.
This cirrus shield has kept temperatures in the mid to upper 70s, or 5-10 degrees cooler when compared to central KS.
Thunderstorms have been training over the Lower Trans Pecos in Terrel County since early this morning along a remnant outflow boundary. Ridging aloft will begin to build over the southwestern U.
310 PM EDT Fri May 13 2022 Composite water vapor imagery reveals counterclockwise flow around a decaying, broad area of low pressure centered just off the Florida-Georgia coastline. The aforementioned low will degenerate into an open trough over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Meanwhile, high pressure over the central Atlantic at the surface will bring undulations of deeper moisture northward to just east of the CWA.
Upper low near the Georgia coast will be meandering west this evening and that will intrude the upper level northerly flow into LA/TX border area. As the upper low over GA lifts northeast Saturday lingering troughiness remains over the northeast Gulf and the subtropical speedmax AZ-NM/Mex border propagates southeastward and into the Gulf. 850mb ridging/heights do build slightly over SETX Saturday but will probably only translate to about a degree warmer over most of the region Saturday. perhaps the western areas (CLL-66R) may be 2 degrees warmer. With 850 ridging in place the next few evenings expect quiet weather with light winds and following a more diurnal pattern of winds relaxing becoming SW in the morning then backing to the S and SE in the afternoon and increasing.
233 PM MDT Fri May 13 2022 Satellite imagery showed the low pressure system that brought the rain to our area yesterday hanging over the North Dakota/Canadian border while another upper low was moving across northern Montana. Snow levels will be above 8000 feet with just a few inches accumulation possible in the higher elevations.
315 PM CDT Fri May 13 2022 18z data has a pre-frontal trof running from southern Wisconsin into central Missouri. The main cold front ran from northwest Wisconsin back toward the KMKC area. Dew points either side of the pre-frontal trof were in the 60s with 40s and 50s behind the cold front. Based on satellite and radar trends convection should continue to quickly develop east of the Mississippi late this afternoon and push east this evening as the cold front sweeps through the area.
This is where a weak triple point will be located between a cold front moving southward and a dryline.
An upper level closed low will move into the SE US today which will be responsible renewed chances of showers and thunderstorms throughout the day. PoP then increases throughout the late morning and afternoon, with the highest chance for thunderstorm activity ranging from Panama City to Albany and then eastward.
130 PM EDT Fri May 13 2022 An upper low will provide a chance of showers and a few thunderstorms today. The upper low will open and shift NE Saturday, with scattered showers and some thunderstorms favoring E and NE areas.
The upper level low will slowly lift northward tonight and open up into a trough. Overnight lows will be in the lows 60s across the interior, and the mid 60s at the beaches.
348 PM EDT Fri May 13 2022 An area of weakening low pressure will drift southwest and farther inland tonight, stalling across the Southeast states before dissipating this weekend.
SR Chattanooga Airport, TN 62 85 63 87 64 / 10 30 20 30 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 60 83 62 83 62 / 10 40 30 40 20 Oak Ridge, TN 60 83 61 84 62 / 10 40 30 30 20 Tri Cities Airport, TN 56 79 58 80 59 / 20 50 30 50 20.
/Tonight through Friday/ Take Home Points: *Cooler, more seasonable temperatures ahead *Periodic shower/storm chances Discussion: The wrapped up system responsible for the high-end severe winds yesterday in parts of the Dakotas, Nebraska, Minnesota, and Iowa continues to churn its way northward into south central Canada, as seen clearly in water vapor imagery. The cooler temperatures were also aided by cloud cover from a weak wave, which did produce rain over parts of southern Iowa, moving northward through the region within the larger scale flow. That return flow will be short lived though as a secondary cool/cold front drops into the state by late afternoon/early evening as the parent stacked system continues to slowly slide further northward/northeastward into central Canada.
An approaching cold front then brings more unsettled weather into the upcoming workweek. This low is expected to become an open wave as it moves northeast into our region by sunrise on Saturday. Highs Saturday will range from the lower 80s across the lowlands to the 60s across the higher elevations. An upper level low over the region Saturday morning will get absorbed into the flow aloft and move off to the northeast.
305 PM CDT Fri May 13 2022 A cold front will approach the area later today. A cold front currently stretched from central Wisconsin southwestward into central Missouri will approach the area later this afternoon into evening. Upper-level flow remains weak going into the weekend with a blocking pattern still in place.
Low temperatures are forecast to drop into the lower 40s to around 50. the upper level flow shifts to the northwest, in between an upper level ridge centered over Baja with low pressure over central Canada.
While the trough axis exits our region to the north, our area will remain in a zonal flow. Thus, at the surface this morning, we'll start in the southwesterly flow which will draw warmer air to parts of South Park, Palmer Divide and eastern plains. Expect warmer lows compared to yesterday for all areas as cloud cover increases through early Saturday morning.