Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
An upper low offshore and onshore winds will keep temperatures seasonably cool today.
Satellite imagery shows some mid and high clouds streaming northward along the eastern edge of the forecast area ahead of the low now located just offshore the Bay Area. Weaker longwave trough then forecast to linger along the West Coast into the weekend.
High pressure will build in from the north. Temperatures will remain cooler than normal today with readings in the middle 60s in northwest Wisconsin and the upper 70s in north-central Minnesota, where the fewest clouds will be found. Continued quiet tonight and Thursday as the ridge axis slides east of the Northland. Temperatures will trend warmer than the past several days with highs in the low 70s along the North Shore to the low 80s over north-central Minnesota.
Thursday's highs will remain in the low 80s and dew points will begin the upward trend into the 60s.
There is a marginal risk of an isolated severe thunderstorm or two developing during the afternoon, however the better chance will be overnight, once the low level jet strengthens. Upper level high pressure will build into the central CONUS Thursday.
603 AM MDT Wed Jul 22 2020 08z surface analysis had lee trough from central MT into eastern CO and weak high over the upper Midwest.
Southwesterly low level flow will keep warm and moist air feeding into our area, while the southern edge of the upper level trough's influence is realized.
Today is set to be the hottest day of the week for much of the Northern Rockies as the ridge axis moves off to the east. A cold front passage is expected during the afternoon, which will be the focus of the strongest thunderstorms, which may organize into a line of thunderstorms, and a couple of severe storms in southwest Montana.
551 AM MDT Wed Jul 22 2020 Hot temperatures are expected to return today across southeast Wyo and the western Neb Panhandle w/ upper-level ridging building into the region and 700 mb temperatures climbing to +16 to +18 deg C. The NAM solution offers a slightly higher severe potential / albeit isolated / with activity that develops over the high plains later today with CAPEs of 2500- 3500 J/kg or better and 25+ knots of effective shear.
322 AM MDT Wed Jul 22 2020 Upper ridging will guide hot and dry conditions across the CWA over the next couple of days. A cold front will approach late Thursday, approaching an environment with decent low level southeast flow and thus deep moisture.
413 AM MDT Wed Jul 22 2020 Hot temperatures are expected to return today across southeast Wyo and the western Neb Panhandle w/ upper-level ridging building into the region and 700 mb temperatures climbing to +16 to +18 deg C. The NAM solution offers a slightly higher severe potential / albeit isolated / with activity that develops over the high plains later today with CAPEs of 2500- 3500 J/kg or better and 25+ knots of effective shear.
621 AM EDT Wed Jul 22 2020 Low pressure moving out of the Great Lakes will bring showers and thunderstorms to our area through Thursday.
High pressure currently sits over the eastern part of the CWA and Minnesota, with low pressure over central Montana/Wyoming. Will see a decent pressure gradient set up between the high to the east and the low to the west, with increased southerly flow ushering warm and humid air into the region tonight and Thursday. As the low and its associated front approach the western part of the state Thursday afternoon, may see a few showers or thunderstorms develop over the western half of the CWA.
That ointment is this morning as CAMS models have picked up on the low level jet and were showing a forecast of isolated convection, especially in the Amidon through Hettinger areas. Other than that, mostly sunny and a bit warmer today with winds turning to be from the southeast, this as high pressure at the surface moves out through Minnesota and low pressure develops in the lee of the rockies.
634 AM CDT Wed Jul 22 2020 Areas of shallow but dense fog have formed this morning with the lowest visibility currently indicated on GOES Fog product to be increasing across the area. As we move through the end of the week and into the weekend, the upper level ridge builds back in over the region so expect gradual warming to more typical late July conditions. In addition, we will see the low level flow swing around to southerly and increase so more humid conditions will also move into the region and increase the heat indices.
Begin today with an upper level closed low located over the northern borders of British Columbia and Alberta. Additionally, an upper level closed low is located off of the west coast of central/northern California. The trough associated with the upper level low to the north, begins to feel the low moving into California, and the trough deepens. An upper level closed low, from the Gulf of Alaska, moves southeastward along the Canadian west coast and is absorbed into the trough that stretches from the British Columbia/Alberta northern border, to California. This has the effect of slowing the eastward progression of said trough. Thursday's highs will reach into the low 90s across parts of north central Montana.
Slightly cooler temperatures are expected today and Thursday as low pressure moves through, with a rebound back to normal temperatures by this weekend. Isolated afternoon thunderstorms are again possible over the higher elevations of the Sierra Nevada this afternoon.
08Z water vapor imagery shows broad ridging over much of the southern CONUS, with the exception of a weak trough near the CA coast.
Onset of monsoonal pattern gets underway today across East Idaho ahead of upper low lifting northeast from California/Nevada.
KTUL, KRVS, and KBVO, will likely be too far north of the higher quality moisture to see scattered storms.
/28/ Another warm day is in store for the region as some effects from the upper ridge linger across the region. There will be some convection across the area today, with the higher amounts being in the north and south. Temperatures today will once again reach into the lower to middle 90s.
421 AM CDT Wed Jul 22 2020 Areas of shallow but dense fog have formed this morning with the lowest visibility currently indicated on GOES Fog product to be increasing across the area. As we move through the end of the week and into the weekend, the upper level ridge builds back in over the region so expect gradual warming to more typical late July conditions. In addition, we will see the low level flow swing around to southerly and increase so more humid conditions will also move into the region and increase the heat indices.
/NEW/ /Through Thursday/ Weak troughing aloft along with the presence of a moist environment will lead to convective development by this afternoon as the atmosphere destabilizes. The highest POPs will continue to be advertised across areas east of I-35 where the better moisture resides, with lessening POPs the farther west you go. Activity will wane this evening with the loss of surface heating, and a strengthening ridge aloft should keep POPs below 20 percent area-wide as we enter Thursday.
Today, an upper level trough will swing eastward over the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley and dampen with time. The low and mid level jets will both weaken through the day, resulting in less overall forcing compared to now. A sfc cold front will slowly work its way southeast across IN and IL today. South of this boundary, sfc dewpoints will remain in the low to mid 70s with PWATs of 1. Highs today will reach the upper 80s to lower 90s with lows tonight again in the low to mid 70s.
As coverage increases, at least VCTS mention is warranted at all terminals although the highest probs will remain north of PBF/LLQ. Today Through Thursday Night Mesoanalysis shows mid-level troughing stretching from the Great Lakes through MO this morning. Large-scale ridging remains in place across the western Atlantic with tropospheric flow out of the south across AR. Coverage is also expected to increase as additional mid-level energy translates SSW to NNE and is absorbed into the northern mean trough. The highest coverage will reside across the northern half of the state with more isolated convection elsewhere, so anticipating a bump in temps across the southern half of AR tomorrow.
/issued 231 AM CDT Wed Jul 22 2020/ An upper level low across northern California will continue to push a 591 dam high, located nearly overhead, slowly toward the east. During this time, the CA low will continue to slowly dig into the San Joaquin Valley as it waits to phase with a trough edging down the western coast of BC. An upper-level anticyclone, now centered over the lower Mississippi River Valley, is expected to drift westward towards the weekend and therefore shunting the axis of monsoonal moisture further west.
/Issued 302 AM CDT Wed Jul 22 2020/ Latest 500mb analysis reveals weak upper ridge in place over the Panhandles. This obliquely upslope surface wind orientation should keep temperatures from overachieving this afternoon, with highs in the low to mid 90s expected, around average for the latter part of July. With the weak upper ridge largely remaining in place through Wednesday night, do not foresee any source of cooling for the mid levels that would be needed to improve instability parameters. For Thursday, upper ridge builds eastward with the Panhandles under the western edge of this feature. Continued moist advection coupled with the slight eastward shift in the ridge suggests there will be a better chance for showers and thunderstorms to develop.
Tonight & Tomorrow: A warm front lifting northward should bring a scattered showers and thunderstorms to our area after midnight tonight, with the best storm chances expected between 3 AM and 9 AM tomorrow.
1104 AM EDT Wed Jul 22 2020 A very sticky July morning for the Florida Keys, with temperatures ranging from the upper 70s to around 80 in the Upper Keys to the low to mid 80s in the Middle and Upper Keys. More vigorous showers and embedded thunderstorms in Hawk Channel and the Straits of Florida south of the Lower Keys and the Southeast Gulf of Mexico waters are associated with the tailing edge of the tropical wave that produced the very squally weather for the Florida Keys over the past twenty- four hours.
Previous discussion: Upper ridging will guide hot and dry conditions across the CWA over the next couple of days. A cold front will approach late Thursday, approaching an environment with decent low level southeast flow and thus deep moisture.
234 PM CDT Wed Jul 22 2020 Forecast highlights in the short term period will be warmer and more humid weather returning to the region, chances for a few thunderstorms late tonight northwest/north central, and a potential round of strong to severe thunderstorms later in the day Thursday through Thursday night. Currently, upper level ridge building across the High Plains today with northwest flow aloft over North Dakota. Warmer temperatures has resulted as well, though the very warm air remains off to our west with the thermal ridge.
Low pressure will slowly weaken and push eastward tonight, but it will bring another round of stratus to southern Wisconsin tonight into Wednesday morning. Cloud coverage should start to decrease Thursday afternoon with the upper level ridge setting up and high pressure moving in for the rest of the work week. Temperatures will be a little cooler tonight with most of the area dropping into the upper 50s, but areas along Lake Michigan should be in the low 60s. Highs tomorrow will be in the mid to upper 70s with dewpoints in the low to mid 60s.
345 PM CDT Wed Jul 22 2020 Upper level heights will build over the region tonight through Thursday as warmer and more moist air makes it way into the region. Otherwise, a short wave trough coming up the back side of the upper ridge across the western part of the region may bring a few thunderstorms to the western cwa Thursday afternoon. An increasing llj into Thursday night combined with this upper trough will bring chances of storms across the north and northeast.
Have maintained some low pops later tonight across far southern Missouri then a bit farther north to the Highway 60 corridor on Thursday as the frontal boundary meanders north.
Latest near term model guidance suggests that deep-layer southwesterly flow will persist across the TN Valley today, as the region will remain along the western rim of the Atlantic subtropical ridge and downstream from a weak mid-level trough dropping into southeastern MO/southern IL.
a ridge of high pressure is progged to begin expanding and building back over the region.
247 PM EDT Wed Jul 22 2020 As a weak cold front slowly approaches the Commonwealth, at least scattered showers and thunderstorms will be in the forecast into Thursday evening.
The weather will remain rather quiet across the southwest Kansas region through Thursday as a subtropical ridge axis will continue to nose itself across our region. Dewpoint temperatures was also remain quasi-steady through this period with lower to mid 60s out west toward the Colorado border to the lower 70s from Stafford to Barber County.
CAMS generally show initiation across the Plateau and E TN mountains after 15 or 16Z spilling into the lower elevations through the afternoon with coverage peaking between 18 and 00Z. Garuckas Chattanooga Airport, TN 74 92 73 93 73 / 20 50 20 60 20 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 73 91 72 91 72 / 30 70 30 70 20 Oak Ridge, TN 72 90 71 91 70 / 30 60 30 60 20 Tri Cities Airport, TN 70 86 68 87 67 / 20 70 40 70 20.
This warmer than expected start has resulted in the increase of daily high temperatures by a few degrees with this update. Prior discussion below: Another warm day is in store for the region as some effects from the upper ridge linger across the region. There will be some convection across the area today, with the higher amounts being in the north and south. Temperatures today will once again reach into the lower to middle 90s.
353 PM CDT Wed Jul 22 2020 Broad ridging continues this afternoon over the CONUS, with the strongest upper level flow remaining over the northern tier states. One of these perturbations is a remnant MCV over southeast Nebraska, leftover from convection over the High Plains last night. Tomorrow the ridge will strengthen some, with winds becoming more southerly. The weekend will see a gradual increase of heat and humidity across the region, as the upper ridge continues to slowly build.
Where clearing does develop, there could be some areas of fog overnight given the light wind field and radiational cooling underneath high pressure. Mid-level ridging amplifies into the area Thursday, but southerly flow does not pick up until late in the day, making for a mostly dry and seasonable day with highs in the 70s to low 80s.
305 PM EDT Wed Jul 22 2020 High pressure aloft will start to weaken Thursday as a weakening cold front approaches from the northwest. Ridging retreats southwest for the end of the week as the cold front stalls and dissipates.
1129 AM MDT Wed Jul 22 2020 Hot temperatures are expected to return today across southeast Wyo and the western Neb Panhandle w/ upper-level ridging building into the region and 700 mb temperatures climbing to +16 to +18 deg C. The NAM solution offers a slightly higher severe potential / albeit isolated / with activity that develops over the high plains later today with CAPEs of 2500- 3500 J/kg or better and 25+ knots of effective shear.
With very weak mid level flow, storm motions should be slow but this also will limit the overall organization with the highest coverage anticipated east of an Antlers to Springdale line. Made some minor changes to winds this afternoon otherwise increased PoPs across far southeast and eastern OK and portions of northwest AR within the highest theta-e and deeper southeasterly flow. KTUL, KRVS, and KBVO, will likely be too far north of the higher quality moisture to see scattered storms.
At the surface, a trough stretches from MT, through western SD and eastern WY, into eastern CO and western KS. As positive vorticity advection moves over northwestern SD, storms are expected to fire generally along the warm front.
301 PM CDT Wed Jul 22 2020 226 PM CDT Spotty showers ahead of the cold front dropping through the area this afternoon have been the primary item of interest so far today. Dewpoints have already dropped into the lower 60s in northwest portions of the area farther behind the front, and 50s dewpoints are not too far away. Tomorrow should be quite pleasant with less moisture and afternoon highs a couple degrees below seasonal norms, and even cooler by the lake with an onshore breeze developing around mid day.
an upper level ridge of high pressure is centered from southern Texas into southeast Colorado today drifting east into southern Kansas tonight. High temperatures are expected to reach the low to upper 90s. High temperatures are expected to be in the low to mid 90s with low temperatures in the mid 60s to low 70s.
159 PM MDT Wed Jul 22 2020 500 mb RAP analysis and satellite imagery showed an upper ridge building across the Rockies early this afternoon, with weak northwest flow over the region. The upper ridge moves onto the Plains on Thursday with an upper trough to its west, placing the region under southwest flow aloft. Models are still showing the local area under the influence of a strong upper-level high and ridge over the Plains that is producing weak southwesterly flow aloft over the Central High Plains region. For the start of next work week, the high will move more southwestward, towards the desert southwest, allowing for a low pressure system, and its associated front to transit south over the Great Lakes and northern High Plains regions.
259 PM EDT Wed Jul 22 2020 As has been the case the past couple of days, the high resolution models just are not handling the details of the current weather conditions well. Guidance is arguing for more cloud cover tomorrow, so have gone a degree or two cooler than today's highs.
The forecast period starts off tomorrow night with a 594dam ridge centered across the Middle Mississippi River Valley. At the same time, a tropical disturbance and associated inverted trough will be making westward progression across the Gulf of Mexico to the south of the ridge.
256 PM CDT Wed Jul 22 2020 The cold front arrived in our eastern counties around 1 PM. Afternoon temperatures over the local area range from the upper 70s north to the lower 80s central and east. Dewpoints are falling to the lower 60s in northeast Iowa, allowing for a much more comfortable day. With drier air moving in to the north now, and into the central areas tonight, we will see a wide diurnal range, with lows in the mid 50s north to lower 60s south, followed by highs warming that dry air into the lower to mid 80s Thursday.
201 PM MDT Wed Jul 22 2020 Compared to this time yesterday, convection early this afternoon was limited to scattered CU forming over the higher terrain. Upper level ridge will continue to persist over the intermountain west for the medium range to long range forecast.
Latest model consensus suggests that a weak disturbance over the OH Valley will degenerate into a broad shear axis as it shifts eastward into the central Appalachians tomorrow, in the flow ahead of a stronger northern stream trough digging into the Great Lakes. The low- level boundary may tend to shift southward and out of the region late tomorrow or tomorrow night, driven by convective outflow.
Temperatures should moderate a few degrees higher however, as we see the first glimpse of the upper ridge working into the north central CONUS.
The environment remains favorable for some gradual development of the tropical wave as evidence of a broad low pressure area has formed over the central gulf.
258 PM EDT Wed Jul 22 2020 Synopsis/Discussion/Marine High pressure will bring generally fair weather through the end of the week.
1132 AM CDT Wed Jul 22 2020 Latest near term model guidance suggests that deep-layer southwesterly flow will persist across the TN Valley today, as the region will remain along the western rim of the Atlantic subtropical ridge and downstream from a weak mid-level trough dropping into southeastern MO/southern IL.
It is very dry in the lower levels so any storm that develops will contain little rainfall but gusty outflow winds. Overnight the highest resolution models have backed off widespread nocturnal thunderstorms, however there will remain sufficient instability and moisture for a few to develop. Thursday a cold front will move through the Northern Rockies.
Will stick with the higher PoPs that I inherited on Thursday, but these may need to be lowered in future forecasts.
326 PM CDT Wed Jul 22 2020 This afternoon, an area of low pressure resides over NE Colorado, with a weak warm front extending east into northern Kansas. South of the warm front, a compact mid-level ridge is centered over SE KS. While a few showers or thunderstorms cannot be ruled out this afternoon or evening, the thinking is subsidence beneath the mid-level ridge should keep the coverage very isolated. Over the next few days, the mid-level ridge will shift east into the Mid-MS Valley region, while the upper level ridge builds in across the Central Plains. 850-700 mb temps will gradually warm as well, which should support gradually warmer SFC temps each day.
246 PM EDT Wed Jul 22 2020 Upper level ridging will prevail into Thursday, before giving way to an upper trough Thursday night. A front will drop across the area late in the week, with the upper trough persisting through most of the weekend. The upper trough will result in somewhat unsettled conditions, and slightly cooler temperatures. Surface ridging from offshore continues across the area. in the low to mid 70s. The southern portion of the forecast area will be a little drier than the northern part, so kept the highest pops north.
The more robust activity that has developed in the Big Country is near a weakness in the upper level ridge from southwest Oklahoma, southwest into the rolling plains east of the Caprock. Not a whole lot of change expected for Thursday, with the upper level ridging slowly edging a little more into the area. Highs will again be in the 90s, mainly in the low to mid 90s. Might just not see as much coverage overall with the ridge strengthening slightly over our area.
High pressure will bring gradual drying beginning this weekend. Notably, this should have helped moisten the low level environment across eastern Utah.
High pressure currently over northern MN will move further eastward, allowing southeasterly winds to pick up overnight.
The National Hurricane Center gives the disturbance a 70 to 80 percent chance of formation into a tropical cyclone during the next 2 to 5 days. Meanwhile, convection will mainly affect the lower Texas coastal waters tonight and Thursday night.
The HRRR and RAP have been very adamant that no convection will develop behind the remnant MCV, but the NAMnest and NSSL WRF show a few scattered storms developing near warm front in southwestern portions of the area. Thursday is expected to be a dry and warmer day as we see rising heights aloft and increasing southerly flow near the surface. Highs are forecast to reach the low to mid 90s with southerly wind gusts of 25-30 MPH.
1218 PM CDT Wed Jul 22 2020 Areas of shallow but dense fog have formed this morning with the lowest visibility currently indicated on GOES Fog product to be increasing across the area. As we move through the end of the week and into the weekend, the upper level ridge builds back in over the region so expect gradual warming to more typical late July conditions. In addition, we will see the low level flow swing around to southerly and increase so more humid conditions will also move into the region and increase the heat indices.
328 PM CDT Wed Jul 22 2020 Isolated showers and storms will be possible this evening as a cold front pushes south through the area.