Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
754 PM EDT Thu Aug 10 2017 Aviation Low pressure over Wisconsin will push a cold front through Lower Michigan tonight and Friday. Sfc analysis shows low pressure over central Wisconsin with a trailing cold front across eastern Iowa. We'll keep the chance of pcpn going through Friday morning before the cold front moves through.
753 PM EDT Thu Aug 10 2017 High pressure will gradually weaken over the Middle Atlantic states tonight. A narrow ridge of high pressure at the surface was maintaining a relatively pleasant air mass across most of central NC as dewpoints this afternoon varied from the mid 50s to near 60 across the Piedmont to the low-mid 60s over the coastal plain. This low level high pressure system will weaken during the next 12-24 hours as the broad upper trough over the eastern U. This weakening will allow a sly flow to develop in the lower levels, advecting a more humid air mass back into our region. The moderating air mass will result in min temps several degrees warmer than this morning. The low-mid level trough accompanying the s/w will likely maintain a few showers and storms into the overnight.
826 PM MDT Thu Aug 10 2017 Quiet evening with just a few isolated showers and thunderstorms over the higher terrain as weak energy moved through cyclonic flow aloft. With just weak energy over the area tonight, kept the low PoPs over the mountains. afternoon with the highest PoPs over the E and mountains.
1019 PM CDT Thu Aug 10 2017 At 3 PM, a cold front extended from Ontonagon Michigan to Madison Wisconsin to Kirksville Missouri. These were associated with a low pressure system over northern Wisconsin. 12z models are in agreement that these showers and storms on the southern periphery of this low will gradually sink south into the Interstate 90 corridor late this afternoon and then dissipate with the loss of diurnal heating this evening. On Friday, a trough will move southeast across northern and eastern Wisconsin.
545 PM MDT Thu Aug 10 2017 A series of cool low pressure troughs moving across the Pacific Northwest, the Northern Rockies and Southern Canada will converge with warmer moist southwest flow on the west side of a flat high pressure ridge over the Desert Southwest and Great Basin, over Wyoming.
824 PM EDT Thu Aug 10 2017 A weak trough/low pressure will be in place across the area through Friday with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms expected mainly Friday afternoon and evening. Weak ridging will then build in for the weekend, with light winds being driven by the diurnal sea breeze each day and scattered mainly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms possible each day.
Ridging will build back into the northeast Gulf and allow for southwest to west winds to develop across most of the coastal waters over the weekend.
1028 PM EDT Thu Aug 10 2017 Under mostly cloudy skies and light winds, temperatures are hovering in the lower 80s along the island chain. An elongated trough aligned along the eastern portion of the Florida peninsula and into our region will lift slowly northward and broaden.
A high pressure ridge will keep it dry through Sunday morning. Then, an upper trough and weak cold front will combine with sufficient moisture and instability to trigger scattered thunderstorms Sunday afternoon and night. High pressure will follow and keep it dry through late week.
Another sunny day on Sunday with winds turning more northerly and a cooler air mass sinking into the north.
Would eye the Highway 59 corridor eastward later this morning.
On Sunday, it will be warming several degrees from today with the upper level ridge building across Colorado. Medium range models continue to show a strong upper ridge building over Colorado and the southern Rocky Mountains and remaining in place through the end of the week. Warm, but moist air will be moving into the region underneath the ridge as weak westerly flow aloft persists. At low levels, low pressure over Colorado will be drawing subtropical moisture into the state from the southern plains.
605 PM CDT Sat Jun 3 2017 Forecast concerns in the short term will be coverage of storms related to the cold front tonight/Sunday and if any other storms will form in the warm sector ahead of the front. The 12Z upper air maps from this morning had closed h5 low pressure centered over Saskatchewan with a trough into the central part of the country extending southward with another weaker closed low centered over northern Texas. A weak ridge was still around 110deg west longitude and also around 90deg west. The cooler air at h7 was over Canada with a dip in the isotherms southward into the western High Plains. 1 to 4 deg C h7 dewpoints were pooled ahead of the trough. The latest surface analysis and metars has the cold front from near Yankton to Ord and east of McCook.
On Sunday, upper energy will be more prevalent across the area, especially the southern CWA as the main upper low slowly churns eastward across OK.
Meanwhile, an abundance of high cloudiness with light east winds are keeping temperatures in the lower to mid 80s along the Florida Keys. Surface wise, a diffuse ridge is draped across the Sunshine State with a trough of low pressure extending from the Bay of Campeche northward into the Gulf of Mexico. With the low level western Atlantic ridge holding across our region, a weak and chaotic wind trajectory combined with limited moisture below 700 mb should pose a formidable challenge for precipitation coverage. With the close proximity of a ridge axis, mostly east winds will remain below 15 knots on all Keys coastal waters, hence, no headlines will be necessary.
1027 PM EDT Sat Jun 3 2017 High pressure will extend across the region through Sunday.
Upper low across far eastern CO/wrn KS in concert with a westward moving outflow boundary triggered a round of showers and thunderstorms across the southeast plains early this afternoon. Expect this to continue into the early evening hours with best forcing near the KS border where vort energy continues to wrap around back side of the slowly departing upper low. except near the eastern border where isolated activity may linger until around midnight in closer proximity to the departing upper low. Sunday will be a drier day for most areas as the upper ridge translates eastward over the region. Warming temperatures aloft associated with the ridge also cuts down on CAPE so main storm threats will be brief heavy rainfall, gusty outflow winds and lightning.
Storm coverage should continue to gradually increase over the eastern part of the forecast area until early evening when lift from the upper level short wave trough and weak convergence from the low level jet will shift southwest. skies are a msunny/psunny mix as an upper low/frontal boundary resides over the area. precipitation continues to taper off thru 06z Sunday with the entire upper low/surface boundary complex shifting well east of the region. Looking for skies to become partly cloudy after 06z Sunday and wind becoming light as strong H5/H7 ridging begins to nose into the Plains region. Looking for above normal highs on Sunday in the lower to mid 80s which will be off of overnight lows in the 50s.
Upper ridge remains situated across Middle Tennessee, although an inverted trough is trying to push into the mid state from the southwest.
/Issued 352 PM CDT Sat Jun 3 2017/ A substantial s/wv near CO/NE border will drop south into an existing weak weak upper low across the Panhandles through tonight.
1236 AM EDT Sun Jun 4 2017 Periodic showers and thunderstorms are expected for the first half of the week with the encroachment of a front and cold upper low pressure. Outflow and prefrontal troughing are likely to provide convective support across that same area into the afternoon as the disturbance progresses east-southeastward.
The upper weather pattern is defined by an upper ridge of high pressure positioned across the Desert Southwest and an upper low over the Southern Plains. The upper ridge will remain the dominant feature across the region this week as it slowly tracks east, with afternoon temperatures expected to warm a few degrees over the next several days.
The ridge will continue to dominate weather across the area Sunday. While most of the area will remain dry, some energy from an approaching trough off the Pacific Northwest will work into the western zones.
/issued 341 PM CDT Sat Jun 3 2017/ In the wake of a diffuse upper low spinning near Childress, light northerly flow had overspread much of the Caprock within a sheared trough. Apparent mesohigh and stable layer south of the upper low has kept much of our Rolling Plains' counties void of agitated Cu fields thus far, but recent satellite and LAPS data indicate the CAPE minimum in this region is slowly eroding. As the upper low initially near Childress drifts through western Oklahoma on Sunday, a shearing low (presently along the CO/KS border) will dive south in its wake.
A ridge axis was bi-secting the fa today from southeast to northwest. However surface based instability does support thunder especially over SEMO with some development to the north of the ridge axis. Tonight the models want to increase rain chances as the dewpoints increase and the high starts to give way to an approaching trough over the southwest. This trough begins to phase with another or parent low over the great lakes area. Chances will peak Sunday and Sunday night as a cold front approaches the area.
734 PM EDT Sat Jun 3 2017 High pressure will extend across the region through Sunday.
/00Z Update/ Upper level low pressure continues across the northern portions of the state and this combined with abundant moisture and plenty of boundaries the trend for scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue. On Sunday upper level low will begin to move slowly east with drying across the west and less convection. The center of the large upper low is over western OK and NW Texas. By Sunday models are dropping pops out west, concentrating the highest chances of rain Central and East zones. This is in concert with the upper low starting to shift east and southeast.
Given that most locations heated out warmer than guidance, went ahead and bumped highs a degree or two for Sunday. Upper level ridge will continue to bring warm and mostly dry conditions through mid-week.
Further south, additional showers and thunderstorms have developed with the main upper trough. High chances will linger into late Sunday as the mid to upper low only slowly progresses southeastward.
Seabreeze has made it west to the Highway 281 corridor so far this evening, with lower level clouds clearing behind it. There is some modest diffluence aloft in the 300mb flow amid weak troughing, however, weaker shear values and a layer of warm air at 700mb, per model soundings over Zapata county, may limit thunderstorm maintenance and growth as it progresses eastward.
the lazy upper low will slowly shift south across the Red River into ne TX by late Sunday. Pops will generally be on the increase across the area as this upper low gains in proximity, especially closer to the low center, but also coming onshore with increased southerly flow.
735 PM CDT Sat Jun 3 2017 Easterly component to the low-level flow has advected upper 50 to lower 60 dewpoints eastward about halfway across the area early this evening. A ridge axis was bi-secting the fa today from southeast to northwest. However surface based instability does support thunder especially over SEMO with some development to the north of the ridge axis. Tonight the models want to increase rain chances as the dewpoints increase and the high starts to give way to an approaching trough over the southwest. This trough begins to phase with another or parent low over the great lakes area. Chances will peak Sunday and Sunday night as a cold front approaches the area.
This system has also resulted in slightly cooler temperatures so far this afternoon compared to 24 hours ago. Given the cooler air mass aloft, should see a slight inland cooling trend extend into Sunday afternoon. Temperatures warm back up a bit early in the workweek as a weak ridge builds over the region. By late week, the forecast models continue to show an unusually deep mid/upper level low for the month of June digging into the Pacific Northwest.
An area of high cloudiness extends from NE CA across SE Oregon with some cumulus beginning to bubble up on the NW periphery of the high cloud shield. This is the area where some showers and isolated thunderstorms could develop late this afternoon into this evening ahead of a trough approaching the WA/OR Coast. The trough will move onshore tonight into Sunday bringing more clouds to areas along and west of the Cascades along with isolated showers. Temperatures west of the Cascades on Sunday will be about 10 degrees cooler in areas that didn't have cloud-cover today and around 5 degrees cooler in those that did. Models are faster with the trough moving out of the area Sunday evening, so we have adjusted the POP/Weather grids to reflect the quicker timing.
All in all this activity, while trying to push ewd into our nwrn zones, has been slow to do so with a light and variable flow in the lower/middle levels per area 00z soundings. This coupled with weak high pressure over the SE United States is keeping an southerly flow over the region. However, another pertubation from the upper low over Texas will likely bring showers and thunderstorms developing after midnight across the coastal waters, and spreading inland before daybreak, thus the higher chances of precipitation during these periods.
This should set the stage for a cooler-than-SuperBlend night and have lowered MinT's more towards MET/MAV numbers.
TFJ A mild day under high pressure in Big Sky Country without a cloud in sight.
644 PM CDT Sat Jun 3 2017 A chance for showers and thunderstorms this afternoon into the early evening before skies clear out and lows fall to a seasonably mild night in the low to mid 50s. At the surface a cold front is sweeping from west to east across northern Minnesota leading to clearing skies and some post- frontal cu developing. Brief small hail is possible with these storms given the cooler air aloft behind the front, but this threat will wane as the sun sets. Highs a bit cooler compared to Saturday, in the 70s to low 80s.
/26/ Sunday Night through Saturday: At the beginning of the new work week, an upper low will continue to spin over the Southern Plains before eventually getting absorbed in the flow around a deeper low over the East Coast.
/ISSUED 339 PM CDT Sat Jun 3 2017/ Showers and thunderstorms ongoing this afternoon mainly along the seabreeze now east of I-45 and starting to develop along the Highway 59 corridor southwest of Richmond. Active storms over West and North-Central Texas this afternoon in association with the slow moving upper low near KFDR. Storms that are going on across TX not lining up well with most of the higher res modeling and hence confidence is lower on how this plays out overnight. Thinking the general trend should be southeastward as the upper low detaches and drifts towards SETX.
This trough will bring with it a slightly cooler airmass and so inland areas will likely cool a bit further on Sunday.
A low pressure system over the ne pac was producing a moist sw flow over the region and combining this with daytime heating was increasing the showers and convection.
With plenty of moisture around and the weak troughing aloft, we can't totally rule out a few light showers overnight, and we'll keep an isolated mention going in the forecast. /issued 341 PM CDT Sat Jun 3 2017/ In the wake of a diffuse upper low spinning near Childress, light northerly flow had overspread much of the Caprock within a sheared trough. Apparent mesohigh and stable layer south of the upper low has kept much of our Rolling Plains' counties void of agitated Cu fields thus far, but recent satellite and LAPS data indicate the CAPE minimum in this region is slowly eroding. As the upper low initially near Childress drifts through western Oklahoma on Sunday, a shearing low (presently along the CO/KS border) will dive south in its wake.
839 PM EDT Sat Jun 3 2017 High pressure will remain in place through tonight.
Deep moisture will continue to advect from the Gulf of Mexico northward over the region through the short term ahead of an upper level trough over the southern plains. A southerly surface wind will also persist as a ridge of high pressure remains from the western Atlantic, across the Florida peninsula, and into the Gulf of Mexico. Low temperatures tonight will be in the lower 70s, except for the mid 70s along the coast.
953 PM EDT Sat Jun 3 2017 High pressure centered over the area will move east tonight. The high will drift off the East coast on Sunday allowing low pressure to track SE out of Canada into the Central Great Lakes.
911 PM EDT Sat Jun 3 2017 High pressure centered over the area will move east tonight. The high will drift off the East coast on Sunday allowing low pressure to track SE out of Canada into the Central Great Lakes.
1144 PM CDT Sat Jun 3 2017 Forecast concerns in the short term will be coverage of storms related to the cold front tonight/Sunday and if any other storms will form in the warm sector ahead of the front. The 12Z upper air maps from this morning had closed h5 low pressure centered over Saskatchewan with a trough into the central part of the country extending southward with another weaker closed low centered over northern Texas. A weak ridge was still around 110deg west longitude and also around 90deg west. The cooler air at h7 was over Canada with a dip in the isotherms southward into the western High Plains. 1 to 4 deg C h7 dewpoints were pooled ahead of the trough. The latest surface analysis and metars has the cold front from near Yankton to Ord and east of McCook.
High pressure will keep hot and dry conditions over the forecast area through Sunday.
612 PM PDT Sat Jun 3 2017 High pressure aloft building into northern Mexico will bring night through morning low clouds and patchy fog for coastal areas and above normal temperatures further inland through mid-week. Low pressure aloft will likely move into the Pacific Northwest late in the week, supporting a deeper marine layer and widespread cooling. A small ridge of high pressure aloft remains over the area today, but will get shoved to the east as a large trough over the Pacific Northwest digs into California Sunday. Despite the trough's influence aloft, 500 MB height values remain higher than usual indicating a warm airmass.
514 PM MDT Sat Jun 3 2017 Current surface analysis shows weak high pressure over western portions of the forecast area. Upper level analysis shows low pressure over the Southern Plains, with ridge over the Northern Rockies. With high pressure over the area, winds are variable and mostly on the lighter side. Warm and pleasant conditions will continue through the weekend as the ridge slowly slides east into the high plains. Highs on Sunday will be slightly warmer than today, 80s and lower 90s.
With cold front remaining well to the northwest, synoptic forcing for additional convection will be absent tonight. As a result, am expecting warm and dry conditions with overnight low temperatures in the lower to middle 60s. an upper low spinning over Oklahoma and a cold front approaching from the northwest. Deep-layer moisture associated with the upper low will gradually pivot northward as the day progresses, with precipitable water values reaching 1. Elsewhere, little or no precip will occur until the cold front begins to sag into the far north by late afternoon.
611 PM CDT Sat Jun 3 2017 A broad upper low over Oklahoma is kicking off scattered convection across southern parts of KS and MO with more isolated activity further north into our area. The best storm coverage through the evening will remain in closer proximity to the upper low, generally south of US 50, although very isolated showers and a few storms are possible as far north as the Iowa border. Any storms north of I-70 should die off quickly after dark, while a few showers could continue overnight south of I-70 due to the presence of the upper low. Sunday will be a near repeat performance of today as the upper low makes slow eastward progress into the Ozarks, with perhaps a bit more storm coverage across areas south of I-70.
903 PM PDT Sat Jun 3 2017 High pressure aloft building into northern Mexico will bring night through morning low clouds and patchy fog for coastal areas and above normal temperatures further inland through mid-week. Low pressure aloft will likely move into the Pacific Northwest late in the week, supporting a deeper marine layer and widespread cooling. Developing southwest flow aloft will increase through the remainder of the weekend as a ridge of high pressure moves east. Weak broad troughing over the Eastern Pacific Ocean will increase onshore flow and bring some cooling, mainly to coast and lower valleys areas. With little change in marine layer depth and little variation in the onshore flow strength, temperatures may remain near-to-above normal in the high valleys, foothills, mountains, and desert away from the coast and outside the marine influence.
/Tonight through Sunday/ The primary concern will be convective trends associated with the weak cold front which will drift north to south through the forecast area over the next 24-30 hours. However there will be some microburst potential due to the lack of shear of any storms can realize the high end of the instability spectrum. However there is some weak convergence noted along that isentropic surface, which is near the theta-e gradient/cold front aloft, so the typical nocturnal waa cycle should be enough to keep isolated showers/storms going for awhile.
Isolated to scattered activity has persisted over the past few hours in deepening moisture north of weak upper low over the southern Plains. Should see a general decrease in activity with loss of heating this evening, though could see some showers and perhaps some thunder into the overnight hours and precip nearer the low. Will continue with chance in the south nearer the low but not confident on coverage. Models are consistent with slight warming in the low levels with northern areas more likely to see the warmer temps in better insolation.
Have increased PoPs across our srn and ern areas, and have left the higher PoPs ongoing across the nw as previously fcst. the lazy upper low will slowly shift south across the Red River into ne TX by late Sunday. Pops will generally be on the increase across the area as this upper low gains in proximity, especially closer to the low center, but also coming onshore with increased southerly flow.
On Sunday, the upper trough will shift slowly east, and could have a weak disturbance move south over our area on the back side of the trough during the afternoon. The upper trough axis will shift east of our area on Sunday, but with a 500mb vorticity lobe entering our area on the back side of the trough, scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will be possible. (Sunday night through next Saturday) By Sunday evening, the weak upper level trough axis will be just east of the area. The upper trough continues to slowly move east to start the work week, and PoPs will continue to trend downward as a result as temperatures begin to warm into the upper 80s to lower 90s.
Based on radar trends and short-fuse models, showers and widely scattered thunderstorms will continue across central and portions of southwest Kansas through this evening and possibly into the overnight hours as a weak upper level low shifts slowly east across the Red River Valley. Temperatures will be near normal tonight as surface dewpoints remain well up into the 50s(F) to the lower 60s(F). Should see lows down into the upper 50s(F) across west central Kansas to the lower to mid 60s(F) in south central Kansas. Should see decreasing cloud cover Sunday allowing for afternoon highs to reach up into the lower to mid 80s(F).