Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
/issued 404 AM CDT Wed Nov 2 2016/ An upslope sfc regime has enveloped the Four-State region the last few days, resulting in dewpoints surging into the lower-middle 60s early this morning. The UA ridge that was once a dominate synoptic feature for the region the last few days is now centered across the southeast CONUS, courtesy of an UA low across the Desert southwest. Concurrently, a broad UA trough translating across the Great Lakes region and the northeast CONUS will send down a cold front tomorrow.
In the middle and upper levels (700-200 mb,latest available satelitte imagery overlaid with model streamline analysis as of 900 am depict a sharpening positively tilted full latitudinal trough oriented from North Dakota to Southwest Arizona. Well east of that feature, the center of an unseasonably deep and warm anticyclone is located over the Yucatan Channel, with the northern periphery of the ridging and associated jet stream pushing Minnesota to the Northern Great Lakes to Northern New England. The closest cold frontal boundary is situated from the Eastern Great Lakes west southwest to the Texas Panhandle.
1025 AM EDT Wed Nov 2 2016 A warm front will lift northeast through Pennsylvania today. A cold front will push southeast across the state on Thursday.
751 AM EDT Wed Nov 2 2016 High pressure will build over the region through mid week.
1056 AM EDT Wed Nov 2 2016 High pressure over the Carolinas provides a warm southwest flow through tonight. A cold front crosses Thursday.
Onshore flow and cooler weather will gradually return by the end of this weekend, along with night/morning low clouds and fog along the coast.
1042 AM EDT Wed Nov 2 2016 High pressure will build over the region through mid week.
Cloud cover over the mountain ridges may still be producing light snow flurries, so will hang onto the mention of isolated snow showers into this afternoon. Upper trough across Colorado is shearing out with the remnant low dropping into Arizona. Forecast highs for today are a bit cooler than yesterday thanks to the little bit of cold advection we have had. This is probably alright, though if the clouds dissipate faster than expected we would need a bit warmer temperatures. Much of the plains should get below freezing tonight. The Denver area will likely be mostly above freezing, but low lying areas and other localized cold spots could drop into the upper 20s. Ridging over the state will bring sunny skies and warmer temperatures on Thursday with highs back into the upper 60s.
An upper level ridge over the Inter-mountain West will shift its axis eastward to the Divide by late afternoon. Also there is increasing sky cover from the northwest near the stationary boundary with the warm front approaching.
1215 PM EDT Wed Nov 2 2016 High pressure will remain anchored over the Southeast U. A cold front will move southeastward through the region Thursday night.
625 AM CDT Wed Nov 2 2016 Latest water vapor imagery and RAP 500 mb analysis shows southwesterly flow over the Central Plains with a ridge to our east and a trough axis extending from western Wyoming into western AZ. At the surface, low pressure was centered over the Texas Panhandle with a quasi-stationary front extending northeast across central and northeast Kansas, northwest Missouri and into far southeast Iowa.
745 AM EDT Wed Nov 2 2016 Low pressure over the plains will move northeast across the southern Great Lakes today and tonight causing showers to overspread our area. Showers will end across southeast portions of the area Thursday morning as the low and associated cold front move away from our area.
1034 AM EDT Wed Nov 2 2016 Temperatures are generally running a bit cooler compared to yesterday at this time; however, dew points are also a bit lower. Consequently, tweaked the highs down just a touch, but most locations still look to reach lower 80s. With clear skies and dry air in place, a large ridge valley split has developed with a few valley locations near 50 degrees while ridge tops remain in the mid 60s. High pressure will remain in control today with good mixing and continued southwest flow. This will once again allow temperatures to shoot into the low 80s for much of the area this afternoon, again threatening record highs. These clouds will gradually build down overnight tonight into tomorrow morning as the cold front approaches Kentucky.
1120 AM EDT Wed Nov 2 2016 Passage of a cold front early on Thursday will herald a return of more seasonable temperature to the Upper Ohio Valley Region. These will continue to slowly advance northward through the day as a warm front slowly lifts northward. Behind the warm front, low level lapse rates are increasing late this morning into the afternoon. the aforementioned trough/associated surface front will rapidly increase precip probability as moisture flows through the frontal zone with support via increasing overall ascent and frontal convergence. Precip chances will fall abruptly on Thursday as the front shunts the moisture feed south and east of the region, although some showers will remain possible, especially over northern zones, until passage of the mid level trough axis on Thursday eve.
813 AM EDT Wed Nov 2 2016 High pressure over the region will weaken Thursday as a cold front approaches the area. The cold front will move through the forecast area Thursday night. Cooler weather will occur behind the front over the weekend. The moisture is shallow because of ridging at the surface and aloft. Wind should be light with the ridge over the area today. Followed the consistent temperature guidance with highs in the lower 80s. The models indicate considerable upper level moisture moving into the area from the west north of a flattening upper ridge. The ridging over the area will continue to weaken Thursday ahead of the approaching cold front. Leaned toward the higher temperatures guidance. A little more moisture and lift associated with the upper trough supports the higher pop in the north.
High pressure aloft will settle across northern Utah today. Moisture will spread into southern and eastern Utah beginning Thursday night as an upper low over Arizona lifts northeast across the Four Corners. The ridge axis to the west of Utah will rollover into northern Utah later today. The upper low that formed over/near extreme southwest Utah last evening has since settled south into extreme southwest Arizona this morning. This low should be sufficiently far removed through Thursday to have no real impact even southern Utah.
720 AM EDT Wed Nov 2 2016 High pressure will settle over the Southeast states through Thursday. A cold front will move southeastward through the region Thursday night.
with better chances arriving this evening (mainly across northeast OK) as the cold front sags into the region.
High pressure will remain in control for the rest of the week, resulting in dry conditions with a warming trend. Still expect patchy freezing fog to develop in mainly northern and eastern NV; however best chances are in northern Elko and Humboldt county where RH are already at or near 100%. Aloft, 500mb ridge is building overhead as the upper level trof and associated 500mb low dig into southern AZ. This 500mb low cuts off as the ridge axis expands northward into northern Canada by early Thursday. By late Thursday, the cut-off 500mb low is kicked northeastward from an approaching 500mb trof well southwest of southern CA coast.
Have thus sped up the exit of the highest pops this morning. Ceilings are much higher overall than was previously anticipated due to some dry air in the lower levels. May see some fog develop later tonight as high pressure begins to build in from the west. Best chance will be across the western forecast area under lighter winds toward the center of the high. This boundary will slowly shift ewd through the day but pick up momentum tonight as an upper trough moves into the Great Lakes with attendant cyclogenesis over NY. Medium A broad positive tilt mid level trough will shift from northern WI into the OH Valley by days end. Any precipitation associated with this trough is proggd to be to our east or northeast. Weak cold advection is proggd with a glancing shot of the low level thermal trough.
High pressure will return for the remainder of the work week with mostly dry conditions. Rains are expected to spread into the area late this afternoon and this evening ahead of the front, but the overall coverage and intensity of this rain will be waning as the upper level ridge SE of the area holds firm.
Otherwise VFR into the evening, but VLIFR-MVFR issues may develop by 03/09z with rain and fog through this cycle as a cold front shifts light SE flow to N/NE 03/ 15Z-21Z.
A ridge of high pressure will continue to build across the forecast area today. A splitting trough was working across the Rockies this morning. An impressive 586dm upper ridge builds in for Thursday for abundant sunshine. Still looking at warmer than normal and dry conditions through most of the period.
The threat of precipitation in the northeast corner has rapidly diminished with ridge building across the region.
/ Issued 255 AM CDT WED NOV 2 2016/ Main concerns in this forecast are the amount of convection today with the upper level system, then with the cold front late Wednesday and Thursday as they move through AR. The upper high pressure ridge was centered over the southeast US with a southwest upper flow into AR. Better chances of rain will be tonight and on Thursday, as the cold front gradually sags southeast into AR to then pushes south during the day Thursday. Winds do shift to the northwest then northeast with the cold front, as well as cool temperatures to much closer to normal values, while still above normal values.
818 AM EDT Wed Nov 2 2016 High pressure will settle over the Southeast states through Thursday. A cold front will move southeastward through the region Thursday night.
812 AM EDT Wed Nov 2 2016 High pressure to the north will maintain breezy ENE winds this morning, strengthening to 11-15 KT by 02/1500Z with higher gusts at times. /issued 454 AM EDT Wed Nov 2 2016/ High pressure continues to dominate across most of the eastern CONUS including the Florida peninsula and into the Florida Straits. High pressure will continue to persist today. By Thursday regional high pressure will start to weaken as a cold front develops into the east central CONUS.
Upper level high pressure sprawled across Florida was on a weakening trend, as a developing trough in the northern stream (west of the Great Lakes) amplifies and heads to the east-southeast. The circulation around this ridge was sending streams of upper level moisture/clouds (some from the western Gulf - the other coming from the subtropical Pacific west of the Dateline near the equator) across the eastern CONUS. High temperatures across the area should once again warm well above seasonable levels, but this time a tad cooler (low/mid 80s) given more clouds which will limit direct solar insolation, and somewhat lower heights. A cold front associated with this next system will bring more clouds, and isolated to low-end scattered showers across the area during Thursday. Kept the higher rain chances to our northern areas.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 82 60 80 53 / 0 0 30 30 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 82 58 79 52 / 0 0 50 30 Oak Ridge, TN 82 58 78 51 / 0 0 60 30 Tri Cities Airport, TN 78 53 75 46 / 0 0 70 40.
Moderate easterly flow behind the boundary with high pressure to the north along the Carolina coast.
Coastal trough advanced inland last night which pushed isolated to scattered light shower activity toward the I-75 corridor early this morning. As the day progresses coastal trough axis will develop once again offshore of the local Atlantic coast which will focus breezy ENE winds 15-20 mph gusts to 25 mph at times across coastal counties by midday and discrete light rain showers/sprinkles with cooler day time temps in the upper 70s to near 80. Farther inland expect more cloud breaks and temperatures warming into the low/mid 80s and mostly dry conditions after midday.
A cold front is due to progress southward during the forecast period, with CIG AOA 8k ft AGL and increasing shower and isolated thunderstorm activity across the Texas Panhandle. The highest confidence for prevailing shower conditions is at KAMA BTWN 02/18Z thru 03/06Z. /Issued 509 AM CDT Wed Nov 2 2016/ A cold front was moving into the OK Panhandle as of this writing, and will continue to track southward across the fcst area today. Latest water vapor satellite imagery shows the advertised upper level low pressure system digging into the southwestern states early this morning. The combination of the southward movg cold front coupled with some moisture suggests slgt chc to chc pops for today and tonight. Thursday and Thursday night still appear to be dry as the upper level low pressure system only moves sluggishly nwd to near Phoenix, AZ.
14 UTC surface analysis shows high pressure located across South Carolina. Aloft, high pressure is centered just south of the Florida Panhandle.
944 AM PDT Wed Nov 2 2016 Off shore flow will bring warmer temperatures to the region today and tomorrow and gusty winds will develop across Ventura and Los Angeles Counties. Overall today's highs should be 10-15 degrees warmer in the LA/Ventura valleys and 4-8 degrees warmer most other areas.
702 AM EDT Wed Nov 2 2016 Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb ridge over the sern U. and a trough in the desert sw and Rockies this morning.
1215 PM EDT Wed Nov 2 2016 A cold front just to our north will stall today as low pressure moves northeast out of the central Plains to the central Great Lakes. The low will continue northeast tonight dragging the cold front through the region overnight into Thursday.
High pressure will keep the air mass dry and stable.
Temps started out in the lower 60s and have quickly risen into the lower 70s. This should all translate into temps slightly warmer then what was previously forecast. A cold front associated with this next system will bring more clouds, and isolated to low-end scattered showers across the area during Thursday. Kept the higher rain chances to our northern areas.
A cold front will move down into the region this evening. Temperatures currently running where normal highs would be for this time of year and the unseasonably warm weather will continue today ahead of next cold front.
Upper level ridge is building into the region this morning, with warmer temperatures expected this afternoon. Upper ridge will continue to build today, resulting in mostly clear skies. The ridge will shift east tonight as a southwesterly flow aloft sets up over the region through Thursday.
High pressure aloft will build into northern Utah today.
S to SE winds 5 to 15 KTS will prevail with the highest sustained winds and gusts to 22 KTS possible Wednesday afternoon. Upper air analysis last evening showed a ridge over the eastern half of the country and a trough from the northern Rockies to Baja California. Models are in good agreement of an upper level high closing off over the Gulf and a low closing off over the southwest. Beneath this pattern a cold front will move through west Texas today and reach our northern border by Thursday morning and move through our CWA during the day.
A cold front is still expected to move across the area later today and tonight. Additional TSRA may form along a cold front that will move SE across OK/N TX this evening and overnight.
803 AM PDT Wed Nov 2 2016 Weak high pressure will linger and confine any showers to the vicinity of the North Cascades and near the British Columbia border today.
The atmosphere remains stable with multiple inversion in the lower half of the atmosphere. The increase in moisture in the low and upper levels has allowed the precipitable water (PW) value to top just above 1 inch.
A warm front will bring rain at times today. A cold front will move through Western Washington tonight.
741 AM EDT Wed Nov 2 2016 Aviation A wave of low pressure in Missouri will track northeast today and through Southern Lower MIchigan tonight.
Water Vapor Satellite trends early this morning place an upper level ridge axis over the Lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast United States, an upper level trough over the Western United States, and a subtropical jet stream transporting moisture from the Pacific Ocean into the Southern/Central plains and Mississippi Valley mostly in the form of high clouds. Meanwhile, a cold front stretches from Southern Lower Michigan back through Northwest Missouri and the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandle. A ridge of high pressure centered over the Southeast United States will bring another very warm and mostly rain free day to the Mid- South. Some cloud cover may result in slightly cooler temperatures than the past few days with near record to record highs in the lower to middle 80s. A weak cold front is expected to drop into the Lower Mississippi Valley on Thursday.
1010 AM EDT Wed Nov 2 2016 High pressure will remain anchored over the Southeast U. A cold front will move southeastward through the region Thursday night.
/issued 338 AM CDT MON JUN 13 2016/ (Today and tonight) Upper level high pressure building in from the south will suppress most shower and thunderstorm development today. However, have a slight chance of storms, north and east of Abilene, where the upper ridge is weaker and under influence of northwest flow aloft. Temperatures will be rising to highs in the lower/mid 90s today. Low level moisture will remain over the region with dew points in the lower 70s.
759 AM EDT MON JUN 13 2016 High pressure will remain over the area today into Tuesday.
/issued 412 AM CDT MON JUN 13 2016/ A weak upper level low pressure system will move slowly across the Lower Mississippi Valley over the next few days.
1049 AM EDT MON JUN 13 2016 Cold front stalls to our south.
851 AM MST MON JUN 13 2016 A dry low pressure system will continue to move across the southwest US through Tuesday keeping temperatures near normal.
The moist axis from Nevada through southern and eastern Idaho will be displaced eastward today by the next large scale trough approaching from the Gulf of Alaska. Pacific surface cold front will pass through eastern Oregon late tonight and western Idaho Tuesday morning.
1157 AM EDT MON JUN 13 2016 Low pressure will remain stalled just to our northeast today. The gusty northwest breeze around this low will continue today, along with seasonably cool temperatures and unsettled weather.
708 AM EDT MON JUN 13 2016 A weak cold front will drop south through the area today and dissipate tonight.
931 AM EDT MON JUN 13 2016 High pressure will remain over the area today into Tuesday.
1055 AM EDT MON JUN 13 2016 Low pressure will remain stalled just to our northeast today. The gusty northwest breeze around this low will continue today, along with seasonably cool temperatures and unsettled weather.
617 AM CDT MON JUN 13 2016 Surface cold front has nudged east into northwest Iowa and southwest Minnesota early this morning. With some mid level instability in place aided by the low level jet, a few high based thunderstorms have popped up along the elevated. Upper trough near the Four Corners region advances northeast today and tonight.
Forecast is very similar to yesterday with highs expected to peak in the low to mid 90s.
During the short term phase of the forecast, we will continue to see the high amplitude long wave ridge aloft fill and dirty as a developing heat Low migrates across the mid South and Tennessee Valley. Looking at model sounding data, we see lapse rates from 6 to 9 C/km in the lower 6 km of the trop today. The heat Low appears to migrate a little further east, as H5 height falls in the High Plains signal a subtly shifting pattern in evolution. Lower trop southerlies are established FA wide, with surface TD's now firmly in the lower 70s.
832 AM PDT MON JUN 13 2016 Winds remain the biggest forecast concern this week with low pressure off the Pacific Northwest coast.
1144 AM CDT MON JUN 13 2016 The mosaic radar imagery late this morning indicated a mid level circulation over extreme NE TX associated with the mid/upper trough axis bisecting the region. along a NW to SE theta-e ridge that will spread ESE along the trough axis. Despite the low topped convection. believe the high FFG and localized nature of this threat precludes a Flash Flood Watch issuance attm. Also lowered max temps to the lower/mid 80s. The 12Z run of the NAM/latest HRRR sugguest that the convection should begin to diminish from the W this afternoon over SE OK/E TX as mid/upper level dry air noted on the water vapor imagery and 12Z KFWD raob begin to entrain E as the weak trough axis drifts E into Scntrl AR/N LA.
(Issued 407 AM CDT MON JUN 13 2016) Broad upper ridging situated across the central CONUS can best describe the main upper level pattern across the region, with troughs along the west and east coasts. The circulation around the upper ridge was bringing a light NW flow across this portion of the Tennessee Valley. The above noted eastern trough was also bringing a frontal boundary southward along the east coast, now extending from southern Illinois to southern North Carolina. It was being pushed southward by cooler high pressure moving southward toward the Great Lakes from Ontario/Quebec.
1032 AM CDT MON JUN 13 2016 With the upper level trough just northeast of the forecast area, am expecting linger rain and thunderstorm chances to persist in the eastern counties. /ISSUED 403 AM CDT MON JUN 13 2016/ Satellite/radar imagery continues to show showers and embedded tstms in the base of the trof situated over NE/E Tx. This trof should sag southeastward through the day and provide the last decent shot of rainfall across the region for the next several days. Rain chances will taper off Tuesday and disappear by midweek as ridging builds overhead. Upper ridge should eventually flatten and become centered in Arizona & New Mexico later in the weekend.
1132 AM EDT MON JUN 13 2016 High pressure will remain over the area today into Tuesday.
949 AM EDT MON JUN 13 2016 Isolated showers with a few thunderstorms have been drifting south/southeastward in the Gulf waters northwest of the lower and middle Keys, and in the adjacent and offshore Atlantic waters southeast of the entire island chain. The early morning local sounding shows a rather deep north/northwest flow between the weakening ridge to our west and the trough off the east and southeast coast of the US.
Cooler conditions are forecast today with a chance of thunderstorms, mainly along and north of I-40. From late this morning into this afternoon, the best chance for showers and storms shifts to central/northern Navajo and Apache counties as the trough moves eastward and begins to fill.
A warm front extends from near Estherville to Des Moines to Centerville. Further to the Northwest, a weak cold front is beginning to move into Northwest Iowa.
a front arriving today will usher a cooler air mass into the region.
A weak cold front will move through Western Washington today. A deep upper low will bring cool showery weather late Monday through Tuesday night with thunderstorms possible Tuesday.
726 AM EDT MON JUN 13 2016 Upper level energy is attempting to spill over the ridge axis this morning upstream over portions of Wisconsin and Lake Michigan. Low confidence exists in overall shower potential with a persistent influence of upper level ridging. Therefore expecting nothing more than virga or an isolated sprinkle from the high overcast cloud deck.
/ISSUED / Satellite/radar imagery continues to show showers and embedded tstms in the base of the trof situated over NE/E Tx. This trof should sag southeastward through the day and provide the last decent shot of rainfall across the region for the next several days. Rain chances will taper off Tuesday and disappear by midweek as ridging builds overhead. Upper ridge should eventually flatten and become centered in Arizona & New Mexico later in the weekend.
A trough of low pressure is slated to swing through the southwest over the next 24 hours. The KTUS morning sounding, satellite imagery, and NASA SPoRT LPW products indicate a broad area of dry air being drawn north ahead of the trough. Impacts from the trough will be limited to gusty southwest winds this afternoon across the area.