Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
/issued 345 AM CST Thu Dec 28 2017/ WV imagery shows the west coast ridge has amplified slightly over the last 24 hours, turning flow aloft over West Texas and Southeast New Mexico from zonal to NW. At the sfc, while weak return flow has resumed, stratus/fog remain socked up against the higher terrain. After yesterday, during which the lwr terrain struggled to climb above freezing, areas this morning w/heavier fog could see light rime accumulations on elevated surfaces, and possible roads/sidewalks.
Brrr is the word this morning across Middle Tennessee with surface observations showing current temperatures ranging from the lower teens in northern zones to the upper teens down south.
Strong 1041 mb arctic high pressure was over eastern WI and into central IL early this morning and bringing bitter cold temps to the area. Another strong 1045 mb arctic high pressure is moving into the northern plains and upper Midwest from Alberta Canada during this New Years weekend, and ushering in bitter cold air again.
102 PM EST Thu Dec 28 2017 High pressure will maintain mainly dry and cold weather today. Otherwise, expect dry and very cold conditions with high pressure in control.
A long wave trough remains over most of the lower 48 today with a Canadian air mass coating most areas east of the Rockies.
256 PM CST Thu Dec 28 2017 (Tonight and Friday) The low cloud cover has persisted today and has thus held temperatures down, mostly in the 30s across the area. There is a chance that some freezing fog/mist cold develop tonight (similar to last night), but confidence is not high, so will just keep an eye on it.
Upper level analysis still shows low over eastern Hudson Bay region, with trough continuing to cover much of Canada and the US. Ridge is building along the west coast. Northwesterly winds have developed across most of the area as a cold front slides through.
145 PM PST Thu Dec 28 2017 Sunny and warmer through Friday then cooler for the weekend.
/Tonight through Friday/ A weak area of low pressure is in place across the region, and is centered across northern MN. A cold front is extending southward into Iowa and will move through the state this evening. Large arctic high pressure to dominate the region this weekend.
253 PM EST Thu Dec 28 2017 There is a small chance of freezing drizzle/rain near the coast tonight as a developing wave of low pressure offshore lifts north. There is the risk for freezing rain overnight and into Friday morning for our coastal counties as a frontal wave bends back towards the coast. Cool and dry air advection to bring a chilly and clear Friday night as high pressure sits to our NW and low pressure passes a few hundred miles offshore.
The evolution of the temperatures over the next 24 hours will have a big influence on the precipitation type and intensity, so freezing rain is possible Friday morning.
209 PM EST Thu Dec 28 2017 Strong high pressure to the north will continue to direct cold air into the region. Low pressure will move northeastward along a front off the Southeast Coast tonight.
303 PM CST Thu Dec 28 2017 Northwesterly flow with fast-moving embedded short wave troughs will remain in place through the end of the week. 5PVU pressure plots show a wave cresting the upper ridge positioned over the west coast. Models show this wave moving into the region tomorrow morning and spreading a chance for snow and possibly freezing drizzle to parts of northern and northeastern Missouri. Forecast soundings in this area show a deep saturated layer that is below freezing but not cold enough to introduce ice crystals. This likely lack of ice crystals may result in some freezing drizzle. But with the current suite of model data, it looks like freezing drizzle.
Flurries to very light snow possible in the early morning across Pine Ridge-northwest NEB.
935 AM PST Thu Dec 28 2017 Sunny and warmer through Friday then cooler for the weekend.
At the surface, the exiting low across MN is quickly being replaced by high pressure extending from western ND. Continued the trend of increasing forecast highs for the daytime period, although Friday will still be cooler than what we've experience over the last couple of days - topping out in the single digits above zero at most sites.
After collaboration with NWS Chicago and Indy, will hold off on any advisories for Champaign and Vermilion County for know due to a bit more uncertainty as to how far south the higher accumulations will get, and the potential for quite a north-south gradient of accumulations across those two counties. Forecast soundings and the Top-Down method indicate that with the loss of mid-level moisture on the backside of the departing system, there could be some patchy freezing drizzle late in the evening from about Winchester-Jacksonville- Lincoln.
138 PM CST Thu Dec 28 2017 Low clouds and freezing fog have mostly dissipated this afternoon and sunshine has returned across the area. Looking at another shot at fog and freezing fog Friday morning as moisture shoves back west across the area. Upper ridging to our west and consistent troughing over the eastern U.
/issued 324 AM CST Thu Dec 28 2017/ Another frigid morning across the Midsouth with temperatures currently ranging from the lower teens north to the lower 20s south. High temperatures will be a bit warmer today, with highs ranging from near 30 in northeast Arkansas to near 40 in parts of north Mississippi. The slight warming trend will continue into Friday, with overnight lows in the low 20s and highs in the upper 30s to to mid 40s.
352 PM EST Thu Dec 28 2017 While strong NW flow and upper level troughing are in place aloft, at the surface a large area of high pressure continues to take hold of the Ohio Valley from the north. This low will be very weak, however, with the only impact being some high clouds across the region overnight, scattering out Friday morning as the low dissipates completely.
343 PM EST Thu Dec 28 2017 A trough of low pressure will push offshore this evening and high pressure will build in from the west overnight.
Meanwhile, it appears that our remaining sites will stay BKN-OVC with cigs hovering in the low VFR range through the period.
243 PM EST Thu Dec 28 2017 Arctic high pressure will remain overhead for the rest of today and tonight.
/issued 423 PM EST Mon Dec 25 2017/ Synopsis and near term (through this evening): A weakening surface cold front continues to move farther south into South Florida late this afternoon. A ridge of high pressure builds into the southeast states and winds behind the boundary veer to a more northeasterly direction with time. Short Term and Medium Range (overnight through Thursday night): The remnant front dissipates over the area tonight, and with high pressure increasing over the eastern states and a ridge nosing into Florida from the northeast, expect generally northeasterly flow.
Cold high pressure will keep things pretty quiet across the PAH forecast area through Friday night. By late Friday into Friday night, models show a cold front pushing across the middle Mississippi and lower Ohio valleys.
With these changes, current thinking is that the inversion in the lower valleys will not mix out, thus have lowered temperatures for tonight and Friday in the valley locations (ie. Still have a chance for light freezing rain in the Lower Treasure and Baker County.
However, there is some uncertainty with respect to the low clouds overnight, but given how persistent they have been the past couple of days, decided to go with a more pessimistic forecast for all terminals (i. Similar to this morning, there could also be some fog/freezing fog issues come early Friday morning. /issued 420 AM CST Thu Dec 28 2017/ (Today and tonight) A Freezing Fog Advisory remains in effect until 10 AM for areas west of a Fort Mckavett to Hamlin line. Ongoing below freezing temperatures and fairly dense fog will make light ice accumulations possible, especially on bridges and overpasses. Some uncertainty remains in the forecast as to the timing, which will affect the high temperatures for this afternoon.
The lower level moisture will encourage more cloud development across our central counties, which is already occurring based upon recent visible satellite imagery. Tonight, expect a similar thermal gradient to this morning across our forecast area with lows in the lower 20's northwest while readings will fall only into the mid 30's across our southeast counties.
A short-lived and weak warming will start tonight, as return flow aloft slowly brings slightly warmer air as well as more moisture toward the area. Then late tonight as a low-level trough moves through the stratocu will be shoved off the east by about daybreak.
1259 PM EST Thu Dec 28 2017 Aviation An area of low pressure will track through the region today and tonight.
240 PM MST Thu Dec 28 2017 High pressure will persist across the southwestern US keeping Utah and Colorado in dry northwesterly flow.
No, not going to get warmer if that is the change you are looking for. Did not use the Regional Canadian as kept focus for heaviest snow too far east than any other high res guidance had and also seemed farther east than what would be expected with this setup of approaching low pressure trough and southerly flow up Lk Michigan. Once the trough moves through tonight, expect lake effect to return to northwest Upper Michigan late tonight as winds turn northwest. Temps tonight will be "warmer" than we have seen the last few nights. Broad and cold 500 mb troughing continues to remain across the area this forecast period with below normal temperatures continuing along with lake effect snow showers. In the extended, the GFS and ECMWF show a broad 500 mb trough over central and eastern N.
308 PM EST Thu Dec 28 2017 Arctic high pressure will slowly build toward the region through late week. Continued cold conditions as a Canadian high pressure ridge builds towards the region. Nw flow wl continue to pump cold air into the CWA with upr lvl trof rotating thru the state Fri night leading to snow showers, mainly over the coastal waters. Mins wl be a touch warmer than Fri mrng thanks to increasing cld cvr with the trof tho still some 15-20 degrees blo normal. Winds wl bcm fairly light Sat mrng and thru a good part of the day as ridge axis crests acrs the northeast. Winds cont into Mon night before beginning to lighten as next ridge builds in fm the west.
As drier air advects in from the north after 20z, the low ceilings will begin to lift into MVFR range.
217 PM EST Thu Dec 28 2017 +1040mb Canadian high pressure near Lake Erie is slowly drifting off to the east. In its wake winds have veered from the north to the east in the lower Ohio Valley. Friday will probably be the "warmest" day of the next 7, as parts of southern Indiana and northern Kentucky stay at or just below the freezing mark, and areas in southern Kentucky reach the mid 30s.
1219 PM EST Thu Dec 28 2017 Arctic high pressure will slowly build toward the region through late week. An area of moisture rotating around low pressure centered near Labrador will move south across the region today. Partly cloudy/mostly clear skies are expected across the forecast area tonight with high pressure building toward the region.
415 PM EST Thu Dec 28 2017 Strong high pressure to the north will continue to direct cold air into the region. Low pressure will move northeastward along a front off the Southeast Coast tonight.
Temperatures range from the upper 70s to the lower 80s.
The high pressure drifting across the Great Lakes is leading to a weak pressure gradient, resulting in calm or very weak winds overnight. As the high pressure drifts just east of the area, southerly winds will take over by the afternoon. This will allow some slight warm air advection of a few degrees at 850 mb into Michigan resulting in a slight warm up to near or reaching the low teens.
156 PM EST Thu Dec 28 2017 High pressure will maintain mainly dry and cold weather today.
237 PM MST Thu Dec 28 2017 Very cold upper trough persists across the eastern two-thirds of the CWA, as deep northwest flow continues across the northern Plains. Frontal boundary sits just west and south of the CWA borders with temperatures ranging from the single digits across northwest SD to the lower 20s across northeast Wyoming and southwest South Dakota. A second reinforcing cold front will then drop southward Friday afternoon and evening bringing the area very cold temperatures through the weekend.
Area of interest will be mainly Washington where moisture flow is more focused and air mass will remain subfreezing for the longest period. Winter weather advisories for a mixture of freezing rain and snow will remain in effect for the counties in Oregon bordering the Columbia River extending north into Washington. A transition from snow to freezing rain to rain will occur at KPDT. Snow will begin to mix with and change to freezing rain or rain at KPSC and KYKM later tonight.
Then by daybreak, expect these ceilings to move off to the east, as a low-level trough sweeps through the area.
Given the slow thinning of cloud cover expected to happen overnight, and light winds, temperatures will remain in the low to mid 30s. The more hours of sunshine a location gets, the higher the temperatures will be. Dew point temperatures will climb from the low 30s to mid 40s across Central Texas through the night.
306 PM CDT Wed May 3 2017 The upper low will slow move through the region through the evening and overnight hours. Tomorrow afternoon, on the back side of the upper trough, there continues to be an indication that weak and shallow instability will build, leading to isolated to perhaps scattered showers. Once this low moves east, a strong upper ridge builds across the center of the country. With a trough over both coasts, this should evolve into an omega block type pattern, giving us a prolonged period of dry weather with temperatures warming into the 80s.
Look for overnight lows to fall into the low 40s. The upper flow regime becomes blocked as ridging slowly builds into the nations mid section from the west.
1252 PM CDT Wed May 3 2017 Continuing to watch approaching cold front and the associated potential for strong to severe thunderstorms this evening. Cold front moves through this evening with MVFR cigs and the potential for thunderstorms just ahead of it.
Plenty of sun tomorrow as ridging aloft builds into the area. Kept high temperatures about the same to slightly cooler based on the latest data. The upper level pattern has stayed fairly consistent the last few days in regards to a ridge moving over the region through the weekend.
356 PM EDT Wed May 3 2017 High pressure will build in tonight bringing dry conditions. Low pressure moving into the Ohio valley will bring rain Thursday night that will continue into the weekend. Heading into tonight, high pressure settles over the area with mainly clear skies through most of the night along with light winds. North of this system's warm front, warm advection precip will break out over western PA / NY during the afternoon. The heaviest and steadiest rain with the low will remain over the midwest extending into southern Ontario in accordance with the strongest forcing. However expect more showery precip to continue over the area in moist SE flow in warm advection north of warm front.
A broad area of high pressure will build over the western U.
316 PM CDT Wed May 3 2017 (Tonight and Thursday) A fairly strong cold front has moved through the area this afternoon, and resulted in much cooler temperatures across the area, especially the Big Country where readings have been in the 60s for much of the day. Gusty north winds have followed the cold front. The cooler, drier air mass and clearing skies will allow temperatures to drop into the upper 40s to lower 50s. This will be 10 to 15 degrees cooler than the lows experienced across the area Wednesday morning. Skies will be mostly clear, and highs will be cooler for areas generally south of Interstate 20, ranging from the lower 70s north, to near 80 along and south of Interstate 10.
A cold front pushed through the area this morning with a gusty N wind in its wake. Currently a cold front is moving through the area, shifting winds from the north and increasing to 15-25kts. /issued 324 AM CDT Wed May 3 2017/ A cold front is right on track to move south through the region throughout the morning hours today. As a result of the cold front, we are looking at cooler high temperatures today with highs generally in the upper 70s/low 80s.
After this system moves by, we will primarily be under the influence of the large ridge currently over the Rockies that will only slowly move toward the Plains.
Latest water vapor imagery and RAP upper air analysis beginning to show a well defined upper level trough over the northern plains that will continue to drive southeast before becoming closed-off over West TN by tomorrow afternoon, then drifting eastward over Middle TN through tomorrow evening.
The trough is within and overall broadly cyclonic middle and upper flow pattern typical of mid-spring across the CONUS. At the surface and in the lower to middle levels, (Surface to 700 mb), latest satelitte imagery overlaid with land and marine surface observations and analysis as of 200 pm detail a stationary surface frontal boundary analyzed from the Carolina piedmont west to Eastern Oklahoma. South of that, broad surface ridging is located across Georgia to Central Florida.
116 PM EDT Wed May 3 2017 High pressure ridging south from Ohio is keeping terminals in clear skies and light winds this afternoon.
Combination of trough exiting the fa and loss of heating should result in dry conditions by or close to sunset. Slight cooling with boundary passage so temperatures a few degrees cooler than last night. Quiet period ahead as high pressure builds into the fa tomorrow. Column warms, especially in the afternoon so areas along and west of the valley could see highs around 70 with a bit cooler to the east. The period begins with the upper level ridge over the High Plains and continuing to shift east over the Dakotas.
Additional storms continue to develop acrs northern portions of the CWA ahead of a cold front that extends from the TX/LA border west of SHV southwest toward Austin. 24 The risk of severe weather and flooding continues across the area this evening until the passage of the cold front. The potent upper level low and sfc cold front is expected to move through the area this evening, and eventually east of the region by 3 to 4 AM. High pres will build in behind the front overnight into Thursday bringing much cooler and drier weather to the region for the next several days. 24 MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
the wave is progged to continue to deepen and wrap up becoming a closed low across the CWA/Central Arkansas/Southern Missouri. Precip is forecast to taper off over the CWA by Thursday afternoon as the closed low exits off to the east.
1255 PM CDT Wed May 3 2017 Cold front is nearing our northern CWA and is still scheduled to be near KAUS around 21z. This is what's going on; The southern part of a long-wave upper level trough is forecast to continue to amplify as it moves over northern Mexico through midday today before moving into the northeast and over the southern Plains later this afternoon and evening. At lower levels, a strong cold front is forecast to enter the Hill Country this afternoon with strong to severe thunderstorms possibly forming along the boundary as it moves to the southeast. It will become breezy with gusts up to 30 mph in the wake of the cold front for several hours before wind diminishes overnight.
High pressure was centered over Lake Michigan this afternoon, as a cold front approached from northwest MN and the western Dakotas. Otherwise, the previously-mentioned cold front is expected to reach north central WI late tonight, and bring a small chance of showers.
Cold front currently positioned just north of Austin to around Del Rio with pre-frontal trough entering forecast area from the north. RAP initialization based on 18Z sounding was indicating 1-2 degree cooler temperatures in the CAP, which could explain the current situation.
258 PM EDT Wed May 3 2017 High pressure will build in tonight bringing dry conditions. Low pressure moving into the Ohio valley will bring rain Thursday night that will continue into the weekend. Heading into tonight, high pressure settles over the area with mainly clear skies through most of the night along with light winds. North of this system's warm front, warm advection precip will break out over western PA / NY during the afternoon. The heaviest and steadiest rain with the low will remain over the midwest extending into southern Ontario in accordance with the strongest forcing. However expect more showery precip to continue over the area in moist SE flow in warm advection north of warm front. A stacked storm system over MO/IL will pull rain into NY and PA Thursday night after high pressure exits to the east.
302 PM CDT Wed May 3 2017 18Z surface data has high pressure from the Great Lakes back into the Plains with a storm system over the lower Mississippi Valley.
Expect lows in the mid 30s tonight with low lying areas likely falling into the lower 30s. The upper level ridge over the western states will slowly shift east for Thursday. Northwest flow around the high will be over Colorado. This will result in mostly clear skies and warmer temperatures. Weather across Colorado will be dominated by a broadcast high amplitude upper ridge and dry and warm southwesterly low-level flow.
330 PM EDT Wed May 3 2017 Surface analysis indicates an area of low pressure remains to our north across the Great Lakes and northern Ohio Valley and we are seeing winds NE to E for the most part this afternoon. All eyes will turn to a deepening trough across Central part of the CONUS by Thursday. Models remain in good agreement with this upper level low closing off and deepening across the Middle Mississippi River Valley region by morning. This will lead to wind gusts of 30 to 40 mph particularly in the Lake Cumberland region and the higher terrain. However, the better upper level forcing for assent and cold front will move east by the evening. Given the nature of the low pressure it will lead to the potential for dry slotting in the wake of the cold front.
259 PM EDT Wed May 3 2017 A large and slow-moving low pressure system will provide rain chances starting later tonight and lasting through the weekend. Clouds will increase once again this evening as isentropic lift commences ahead of digging Mississippi Valley low pressure. This low- level flow may induce a rain shadow effect west of the terrain as the increasingly stacked low curves into the Ohio Valley. Have thus kept likely PoPs confined to areas north and west of Pittsburgh, where an inverted trough will set up. Stacked low will drop from the Ohio Valley into the central Appalachians before handing off to a new upper low center over the Great Lakes.
A few afternoon cumulus clouds have manged to sustain themselves over the higher terrain as a small bit of moisture lingers in the lower mid-levels behind our departing trough. A large ridge of high pressure will shift eastward over the Four Corners on Thursday. Near full-sun and rising heights aloft will allow for high temperatures around 10 degrees warmer on Thursday, with a few 80-degree readings likely in valley locations in eastern Utah and far western Colorado.
107 PM CDT Wed May 3 2017 Cold front currently heading into the Big Bend with gusty northerly winds and cooler temperatures behind it.
140 PM EDT Wed May 3 2017 Dry weather under high pressure is expected before low pressure returns periodic rain chances later tonight night through the weekend. Cloud cover will diminish briefly this afternoon but increase again heading into the evening in warm advection ahead of approaching low pressure. Low pressure will deepen over the Midwest as the longwave pattern amplifies and becomes more meridional with rain slowly overspreading the region overnight. Overall model consensus still indicates areas north and west of Pittsburgh will be favored through Thursday in an inverted trough for higher rainfall amounts.