Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Discussion: Storms are ongoing this morning along a cold front that is slowly pushing southward. Storms will continue this morning before winding down by early afternoon as the low-level jet weakens. The trough that brought severe weather to portions of the upper Midwest and Upper/Mid Missouri River Valley will lift north into Canada this morning. The remainder of the week looks cool and dry as high pressure settles into the region. This activity should diminish in coverage later this morning as the low-level jet weakens over the area.
Satellite imagery shows center of upper low located near Idaho/Nevada/Utah border early this morning. Expect trend to continue through the remainder of the morning as the upper low fills slightly and sags southeast toward central Utah through the day. One more band of moisture wraps around the low from Wyoming into East Idaho this afternoon and evening. This should be the final round for this system, as trough finally shifts into the Plains Wednesday, allowing for shallow ridge to build across intermountain west.
An upper-level ridge to the east and broad trough to the west places southwesterly flow aloft just west of the CWA. High pressure will continue to keep skies mostly clear today with dry weather continuing. Low pressure is moving northeastward into Canada from Minnesota, and will stall out in northern Ontario as it occludes. The cold front associated with this system will break off and slowly weaken as it drifts eastward midweek. Fueled by Gulf moisture streaming northward through Texas, the cold front will produce showers and storms from northwestern Texas to Michigan today.
551 AM CDT Tue May 31 2022 (Today through Wednesday) High pressure at the surface and aloft continues to circulate to our east as both temperatures and dew points slowly increase.
522 AM EDT Tue May 31 2022 High pressure will keep dry and warm weather in our region today. A Wednesday cold front will likely bring showers and thunderstorms by the afternoon and evening. Eastern CONUS ridging remains in place today, resulting in continued dry weather.
Mid level ridge axis from southern Mississippi River valley into southeast Texas this morning will build southwest into south Texas and northern Mexico by Wednesday.
642 AM EDT Tue May 31 2022 Warm high pressure will persist over our region through most of the week.
930 AM EDT Tue May 31 2022 Quiet start to the day with the low level flow now more out of the east to northeast as high pressure becomes centered off the southeast U. Of course, much uncertainty remains for the end of the week into the weekend as the timing and location of possible low pressure development remains to be seen.
The low level thermal ridge will remain farther west today, which will result in slightly cooler temperatures, with highs mainly in the mid and upper 90s. Thunderstorms are expected to develop north of the area ahead of a surface cold front from the southeastern Texas Panhandle and into northwest Oklahoma late this afternoon. Otherwise, expect dry and mild conditions again tonight, with overnight lows in the lower 70s.
High pressure will result in continued dry conditions along with a warming trend through the rest of the week.
/issued 316 AM CDT Tue May 31 2022/ An upper ridge remains over the Mid-South this morning. The ridge is expected to gradually weaken over the next couple of days. On Wednesday, the ridge will weaken enough that most of the CAMS are showing shower and thunderstorm development occurring during the afternoon and evening hours across Northeast Arkansas, the Missouri Bootheel, and Northwest Tennessee. Overnight Wednesday night, the ridge will continue to be shunted to the Gulf Coast allowing a cold front to approach the area.
843 AM CDT Tue May 31 2022 A strong area of high pressure centered over the southern Appalachians will amplify today, resulting in continued mostly clear/calm conditions across the Tennessee Valley. Light southerly flow around the western edge of this ridge will help to advect in/reinforce this very warm, moist air mass. However, the strong subsidence from the ridge will prevent any afternoon convection from developing and thus a dry forecast was maintained.
1054 AM EDT Tue May 31 2022 Warm high pressure will persist over our region through most of the week.
A low pressure system directly over Nevada will promote a few showers and thunderstorms across mainly White Pine County today. Another cold morning is expected Wednesday but a a warming and drying trend will occur midweek as high pressure builds over the region.
631 AM EDT Tue May 31 2022 High pressure becomes centered over the western Atlantic through the middle of the week.
648 AM EDT Tue May 31 2022 Dry and very warm conditions will continue today as high pressure moves east.
945 AM EDT Tue May 31 2022 Dry and very warm conditions will continue today as high pressure moves east.
950 AM EDT Tue May 31 2022 A Wednesday cold front will interrupt the warm and dry weather. Eastern CONUS ridging remains in place today, resulting in continued dry weather.
637 AM EDT Tue May 31 2022 High pressure across the region through mid-week with above normal temperatures.
Conditions should finally start to dry out Wednesday afternoon as an upper-level ridge begins to build in.
Synoptic & GOES E water vapor analysis indicates broad mid-level ridge situated over NW Gulf of Mexico & extending NE & squeezed off into the Mid-MS Valley. Upper level low is situated over the FL Panhandle-SE Gulf Coast states. This upper low is progged to shift W under another upper high over the Appalachians. Broad troughing is over the Intermountain W & deep cold core low will shift NE into S Canada. Highs will generally be slightly above normal in the low 90s, with heat indices climbing into the mid- upper 90s. Tonight: Pattern will be mostly stagnant, with upper level ridge somewhat breaking down into the overnight hours.
A deep surface cyclone over northwest MN will move to northwest ON this evening. By 8 PM, the associated cold front will likely be positioned west of the forecast area--roughly extending from the central U. --Rain chances Wed and Thu-- The cold front should largely clear the CWA by 12z Wed. Storm threat ending late tonight, although a period of MVFR/IFR cigs following behind a cold frontal passage early Wednesday morning. Thunderstorms are expected this evening with the arrival of a cold front.
603 AM CDT Tue May 31 2022 Key Messages: - Storm chances this afternoon/evening shifted further south and east - Cooler and mostly dry conditions for next few days Latest satellite water vapor imagery has a low pressure system rotating over eastern North Dakota. A surface cold front stretches from central Minnesota curving back into eastern Nebraska as depicted by surface observations. MUCAPE values could exceed 3000 J/kg for these areas ahead of the cold front by this afternoon. In wake of the cold frontal passage, cooler temperatures are likely to prevail through the week. While the cold front has not moved through yet, it will later today with not much more than a shift in the winds from the south around to the southwest and then west.
616 AM CDT Tue May 31 2022 (Today) As a trough lifts out of the Northern Plains, it will run into the southern Appalachian ridge that is amplified up through the Great Lakes. This interaction will make the ridge retrograde and extend back into the Southern Plains. Despite the ridge in place, won't rule out a few showers or thunderstorms mainly northeast AL with the strong sfc heating and moisture in place, but kept POPs silent at this time.
649 AM EDT Tue May 31 2022 High pressure remains over the region today, but can't rule out an isolated shower or thunderstorm around peak heating this afternoon. Thunderstorm chances will increase on Wednesday, as a cold front pushes through the region and a few storms could be severe. Ridge of high pressure will remain over the NE U. Forecast sounding are showing very dry air aloft and a strong cap at H700, as an EML plume slides around the ridge and into New England by this evening. However, with strong diurnal heating and with the ridge starting to flatten some by late in the day, can't rule out an isolated thunderstorm popping up.
Less active weather is expected across the area for the next several days and high temperatures should be cooler. Water vapor satellite loop early this morning showed a strong closed low over northwest MN and another weaker system back over NV and UT.
Some afternoon showers are expected to develop in the higher terrain, mainly in the Smokies and SW NC area. High pressure across the region will bring VFR conditions through the next 24 hours. High pressure will bring quiet weather today and tonight with only isolated chances of showers/thunderstorms across the high terrain. Discussion: An upper level ridge currently sits across the Southern Appalachians this morning resulting in tranquil weather conditions. The SW/NE oriented upper level ridge will remain situated across the region today into tonight. Differential heating along the high terrain could result in an isolated shower or thunderstorm this afternoon. Daytime highs will be a degree or two warmer than yesterday with upper 80s common across most locations. Temperatures will be mild with lows ranging from the low to upper 60s.
A warming trend will continue through Wednesday for the interior as high pressure shifts toward the West Coast. Widespread rain is looking more likely this weekend as a large trough approaches. Temperatures will continue a warming trend through Wednesday as high pressure moves over the West Coast. Winds will continue to be breezy along the coast and across interior ridges, although begin to weaken through the next few days. The combination of drier northerly flow and and breezy ridgetop winds will lead to some elevated conditions for fire weather in eastern Lake County.
An upper ridge will expand northwest of our area today with a weak upper trough remaining over interior portions of southeast CONUS. The combination of this trough, the increasing deep layer moisture and daytime heating will bring scattered showers and thunderstorms to the area during the afternoon hours today. Rain chances decrease tonight and will also be a little less on Wednesday, primarily isolated to low end scattered, as the upper ridge expands south and east across our area.
Key Messages: - Flood threat continues today and tonight - Severe weather possible this afternoon and evening Discussion: Showers and thunderstorms will begin to weaken and taper off this morning as the low-level jet weakens diurnally, although the rain chance never really diminishes completely as several outflow boundaries and a synoptic boundary drape across the region. Storm mode will quickly become messy due to the number of updrafts and lack of steering off the boundary, and especially as the low-level jet increases again tonight.
503 AM MDT Tue May 31 2022 Midlevel low pressure is currently centered over the Great Basin and will continue to lift over the forecast area today and tonight. Later this evening and tonight the trough lifts overhead providing some lift. A cold front moving southward along the Front Range may allow some moisture to reach the Divide. The Uintas, Elkhead, Park Range, and Sawatch could see a few inches until the low lifts out of the region tomorrow. By tomorrow evening the low is gone leaving quasi-zonal flow in place. The air mass will begin to quickly modifying so highs will be 5 to 10 degrees warmer than today.
SHORT TERM (Today through Wednesday): The ridge over the Ohio River valley finally begins to breakdown on Wednesday. This will bring slightly calmer winds and cooler temperatures to Deep South Texas by the end of the Short Term period. Again, models are a bit cool regarding the lows, so decided to increase the temperatures by a couple of degrees. Temperatures are slightly cooler as we move into zonal mid-level flow with calmer easterly winds and highs in the 90s.
315 AM MDT Tue May 31 2022 Midlevel low pressure is currently centered over the Great Basin and will continue to lift over the forecast area today and tonight. Later this evening and tonight the trough lifts overhead providing some lift. A cold front moving southward along the Front Range may allow some moisture to reach the Divide. The Uintas, Elkhead, Park Range, and Sawatch could see a few inches until the low lifts out of the region tomorrow. By tomorrow evening the low is gone leaving quasi-zonal flow in place. The air mass will begin to quickly modifying so highs will be 5 to 10 degrees warmer than today.
/issued 425 AM CDT Tue May 31 2022/ SHORT TERM (Today through Wednesday): The ridge over the Ohio River valley finally begins to breakdown on Wednesday. This will bring slightly calmer winds and cooler temperatures to Deep South Texas by the end of the Short Term period. Again, models are a bit cool regarding the lows, so decided to increase the temperatures by a couple of degrees. Temperatures are slightly cooler as we move into zonal mid-level flow with calmer easterly winds and highs in the 90s.
917 AM EDT Tue May 31 2022 High pressure remains over the region today, but can't rule out an isolated shower or thunderstorm around peak heating this afternoon. Thunderstorm chances will increase on Wednesday, as a cold front pushes through the region and a few storms could be severe. Ridge of high pressure will remain over the NE U. Forecast sounding are showing very dry air aloft and a strong cap at H700, as an EML plume slides around the ridge and into New England by this evening. However, with strong diurnal heating and with the ridge starting to flatten some by late in the day, can't rule out an isolated thunderstorm popping up.
306 PM CDT Tue May 31 2022 A strong area of low pressure will continue pushing north-northeast, leaving behind cool and breezy conditions over this CWA.
With the low likelihood of that happening I left pops low this afternoon.
306 PM EDT Tue May 31 2022 Fairly pronounced and broad area of high pressure extending from the central Appalachians to the Texas Gulf Coast will dominate our weather over the next 24-36 hours, thus not much in the way of "impact" weather to talk about. Daytime highs on Wednesday could be a few degrees warmer than today as the upr ridge inches south/west across the region.
Clouds will stick around tonight along the slow moving trough axis that is extending from East River to Utah.
Latest water vapor loop was showing the upper level trof continuing to spin across Wyoming and northern Utah. At the base of this trof, there are some subtle jet streaks moving through northern Colorado and the southern Nebraska panhandle.
1130 AM MDT Tue May 31 2022 Temperatures have risen above freezing and therefore the Freeze Warning has been allowed to expire. Midlevel low pressure is currently centered over the Great Basin and will continue to lift over the forecast area today and tonight. Later this evening and tonight the trough lifts overhead providing some lift. A cold front moving southward along the Front Range may allow some moisture to reach the Divide. The Uintas, Elkhead, Park Range, and Sawatch could see a few inches until the low lifts out of the region tomorrow. By tomorrow evening the low is gone leaving quasi-zonal flow in place. The air mass will begin to quickly modifying so highs will be 5 to 10 degrees warmer than today.
121 PM EDT Tue May 31 2022 High pressure surface and aloft brings mainly dry and warm weather through tonight. A cold front brings the next chance for showers and thunderstorms for midweek. The high pressure at the surface and ridging aloft will continue to provide dry and hot weather conditions through Wednesday. Upper level ridging contributing to dry weather these past few days will begin to flatten on Wednesday and become displaced to the east. Unsettled weather then pushes back into the Ohio Valley in the form of a surface cold front beginning late Wednesday afternoon into the evening time frame.
308 PM EDT Tue May 31 2022 A cold front will bring a chance of showers and storms to the area tonight into Wednesday. Drier and cooler conditions are expected into the first half of the weekend. Later this evening, a cold front approaches. Low temperatures are expected to fall into the low to mid 60s in the northwest and settle around 70 in the southeast.
A cooler airmass with increasingly strong 30 kt easterly 850mb layer winds will spread into western Kansas Tonight, with trajectories leading to a prolonged period of moist upslope flow overnight.
(This evening through Wednesday) The effective cold front has finally stalled from around Cheyenne, to Seiling, to Enid, and Ponca City. Tomorrow's threat and location of severe weather will depend on the progression of the cold front.
Skies behind it haven't completely cleared, with some patchy stratus across most of the area, but occasional sunshine has helped take temperatures into the upper 70s despite the cold air advection behind the low to our north. Temperatures will continue along the cooling trend into tomorrow as cloud cover keeps heating to a minimum and northerly flow brings cooler air down into the state.
Nearly any severe weather threat should be minimized markedly by 03z Wednesday, as the low level shear weakens at or below 15 knots overnight.
(This evening through Wednesday) This afternoon, a broad longwave trough continues to be the dominant feature across the western US, and this will keep west Texas under southwest flow aloft. A surface cold front will become quasi-stationary over the Panhandle overnight, while a low- level jet will ramp up across west central Texas.
248 PM CDT Tue May 31 2022 Tightly wound stacked low pressure sitting over southwestern Ontario will continue pushing off to the northeast through this evening, while high pressure nudges into the state tonight. The low will then retrograde back to the southwest a bit Wednesday retightening the pressure gradient. Lows tonight will range from the upper 30s to the low 40s.
This activity should diminish in coverage later this morning as the low-level jet weakens over the area.
RAP analysis shows 850mb moisture transport axis focused west of the IL River, and sfc dewpoints are expected to climb into the low 70s there by mid-afternoon. Surface analysis early this morning depicts a low located over the eastern Dakotas/northwest Minnesota with a cold front stretched southward from there into the central Plains states. The low will continue to lift north into Ontario today as the cold front works east, approaching the middle Mississippi River Valley by this evening. Mid-level ridging is in place over the eastern CONUS, with southwest flow positioned aloft. The severe weather timing looks to be from early evening through just after midnight with the higher threat being along and west of the I-55 corridor. The cold front looks to wash out some going into Wednesday.
The warming trend across the region will persist tomorrow as the ridge of high pressure builds.
1032 AM CDT Tue May 31 2022 Updated to lower temps today and to push the higher pops further south. A cold front will be the focus of storms today with very heavy rainfall expected just north of the front and areas south and eastward.
An upper ridge will expand northwest of our area today with a weak upper trough remaining over southern Alabama and the western Florida Panhandle. The combination of this trough, the increasing deep layer moisture and daytime heating will bring scattered showers and thunderstorms to the area this afternoon as MLCAPE values to climb to between 1500-2000 J/Kg. The upper ridge to the northwest of our area will slowly migrate closer to the forecast area on Wednesday bringing with it slightly drier air, with less coverage (20 percent) of the showers and thunderstorms occurring Wednesday afternoon. High temps Wednesday should be in the lower 90s inland, with mid to upper 80s along the immediate coast.
1238 PM EDT Tue May 31 2022 A Wednesday cold front will interrupt the warm and dry weather. A cold front will then settle in from the north during the afternoon and evening, bringing shower and thunderstorm chances back to the forecast. Cooler overnight lows will be realized behind the front, especially north of I-80.
138 PM PDT Tue May 31 2022 A weak ridge over the Southwest will lead to warmer weather through the middle of the week with lighter winds across the mountains and deserts. A large area of low pressure situated in the Gulf of Alaska will approach the West Coast later in the week. This will provide greater onshore flow across the region, leading to cooler weather.
The large elongated upper ridge is slowly shifting farther to the south this afternoon, and will help contribute to warmer afternoon highs. Convective activity will also be at a minimum beneath the ridge, and have continued to leave all rain chances out of the forecast for the northwestern counties today. The upper ridge will try to center over our region, but will begin to break down as a trough begins to dig across the center of the CONUS.
259 PM CDT Tue May 31 2022 The upper level low continues to spin along the international border, keeping stratus across the bulk of the region. Could be another chance for light showers on Wednesday as a mid level wave moves across the highway 20 corridor. However, the low to mid levels of the atmosphere are quite dry. If the rain can cool the low levels enough via wetbulbing, then it could reach the surface. Aside from rain chances, Wednesday will be another cool day with highs in the 60s due to cooler 850 mb temperatures around 2 standard deviations below average as per the ensemble situational awareness table.
Otherwise, afternoon temperatures will reach the low 90s once again.
A large mid/upper ridge axis extending from SW to NE across the southern Appalachians will remain in place. Will have high temps a degree or two warmer than what we are seeing today, in the upper 80s north and central to lower 90s south.
Also seeing some agitated cu across the northwest, closer to the cold front. Convection will wane late this evening, with drier air filtering into the area from the northwest behind the passing cold front. Lows Wednesday night will fall into the low 50s.
214 PM EDT Tue May 31 2022 High pressure will keep the area in a very warm airmass into Wednesday, with limited storm chances, if any.
Clearing over the northwest Colorado plateau will allow for good radiational cooling tonight which is expected to yield freezing temperatures for Steamboat Springs, Craig, Meeker and surrounding areas late tonight. A shallow ridge begins to build over the Great Basin on Wednesday, so expect increased sunshine and temperatures moderating, but still peaking several degrees below seasonal norms.
152 PM EDT Tue May 31 2022 High pressure surface and aloft brings mainly dry and warm weather through tonight. A cold front brings the next chance for showers and thunderstorms for midweek. The high pressure at the surface and ridging aloft will continue to provide dry and hot weather conditions through Wednesday.
211 PM CDT Tue May 31 2022 Tranquil weather is ongoing across the Tennessee Valley this afternoon with high pressure promoting mostly clear and dry weather. A strong subtropical ridge of a high pressure situated over the southern Appalachians will remain the dominant weather feature over the Deep South on Wednesday.
Things will begin to warm back up to normal tomorrow as the upper-level trough responsible for these cool temperatures begins to move out of the area. This aforementioned trough can currently be seen on satellite imagery churning over northeastern Nevada/northwestern Utah and could potentially result in showers in the northern most portions of the panhandle of Lincoln County.
South Texas is under the southern tip of a ridge axis that stretches northeast toward eastern CONUS this afternoon. Sufficient moisture in the lower levels with PWATs around 1. The low level moisture is progged to increase to 1. As for temperatures, highs will be a few degrees cooler Wed due to the slightly deeper moisture and cloud cover.
334 PM EDT Tue May 31 2022 A backdoor cold front continues to push southwestward across the area this evening, bringing much cooler temperatures to the area.