Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
RELATIVELY ABUNDANT UPPER-LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE SLOWED THE INITIATION OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON DESPITE A DECENT AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IN THE LOW AND MID-LEVELS. HIGH TEMPERATURES HAVE LIKELY ALREADY OCCURRED THIS AFTERNOON, AND TONIGHT WE SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES AROUND 70 (WARMER ALONG THE COAST AND IN FL, AND COOLER IN GEORGIA AND ALABAMA).
401 PM EDT TUE JUN 2 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CROSS NORTHERN MAINE TONIGHT.
BUT WEAK FLOW UNDER BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE MAKES THAT UNLIKELY.
252 PM EDT TUE JUN 2 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL EXIT INTO THE MARITIMES EARLY TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT THEN CREST OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY.
/ISSUED 334 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015/ A MORE SUMMER LIKE WEATHER PATTERN IS BEGINNING TO TAKE SHAPE AS AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BE BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
313 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015 A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO EDGE EAST ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WARMER TOMORROW WITH MORE SUNSHINE ANTICIPATED.
320 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015 AT H5 CLOSED LOW OVER NORTHEAST CONUS WITH ANOTHER CLOSED LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH INTO THE SOUTHEAST CONUS CENTERED OVER KENTUCKY. RIDGING INTO THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS FROM NORTHERN MEXICO TO IOWA. TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT NORTHEAST OF A LINE FROM LUSK WYOMING TO BRIDGEPORT NEBRASKA. THE 12Z NAM ON THE OTHER HAND SHOWS LOW STRATUS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE WITH ANY CONVECTION MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. IT WILL BE COOLER ON WEDNESDAY AS WELL WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S.
147 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015 WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SYMMETRICAL UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER THE TN PORTION OF THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU. AT THE SFC, A COLD FRONT WAS SITTING JUST SE OF THE I-59 CORRIDOR WHERE CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE DEVELOPING. WOULD EXPECT THESE CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE SOME FROM WEST TO EAST WITH INCREASING SUBSIDENCE W OF THE LOW. HOWEVER, THE LOW IS PROGGED TO DROP MORE S THAN EAST TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY, SO CLOUD TRENDS ARE A TOUGH CALL.
125 PM EDT TUE JUN 2 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST AND GRADUALLY STALL NEAR THE COAST TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN LATE WEEK WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVING ACROSS FROM THE WEST.
LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY FOR CONTINUED UNSETTLED CONDITIONS.
350 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015 AT H5 CLOSED LOW OVER NORTHEAST CONUS WITH ANOTHER CLOSED LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH INTO THE SOUTHEAST CONUS CENTERED OVER KENTUCKY. RIDGING INTO THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS FROM NORTHERN MEXICO TO IOWA. TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
239 PM EDT TUE JUN 2 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL FINALLY LIFT OUT OF THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT, ALLOWING FOR CLEARING SKIES AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES FOR MID WEEK. QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS QUEBEC AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND PUSHING CLOUDS AND RAIN WELL TO OUR SOUTH. AS THE UL TROF LIFTS OUT OF NY, SKIES WILL RAPIDLY CLEAR TONIGHT.
142 PM EDT TUE JUN 2 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL FINALLY LIFT OUT OF THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT, ALLOWING FOR CLEARING SKIES AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES FOR MID WEEK. AS THE UL TROF LIFTS OUT OF NY, SKIES WILL RAPIDLY CLEAR TONIGHT.
MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW DRIFTS SOUTHEAST THIS WEEK. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW DRIFTING OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL KEEP MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN PLACE ACROSS THE CWA. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD AGAIN BE BELOW NORMAL THANKS TO THE UPPER LOW AND CLOUDS. WITH THE UPPER LOW IN THE VICINITY. AS UPPER LOW SLIDES OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST.
317 PM EDT TUE JUN 2 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL FINALLY LIFT OUT OF THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT, ALLOWING FOR CLEARING SKIES AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES FOR MID WEEK. QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS QUEBEC AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND PUSHING CLOUDS AND RAIN WELL TO OUR SOUTH. AS THE UL TROF LIFTS OUT OF NY, SKIES WILL RAPIDLY CLEAR TONIGHT.
358 PM EDT TUE JUN 2 2015 AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION.
328 PM CDT Tue Jun 2 2015 This period will be characterized by a building 500mb ridge from Texas into the Ozarks. With the building ridge, any convection looks to remain north and west of the area through the day tomorrow with a complex likely to develop later Wednesday afternoon over the Plains. Biggest question in this time frame is position of the upper level ridge and handling of potential MCS's rolling out the the Central Plains towards the area, so overall low confidence in the details of the forecast.
222 PM EDT TUE JUN 2 2015 AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY SLOWLY ERODING CLOUDY SKIES FROM WEST TO EAST.
AN UPPER HIGH ALOFT WILL KEEP THE AIRPORTS UNDERNEATH SUBSIDENCE WITH JUST OCCASIONAL SCATTERED CU AND HIGH CLOUDS.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS ANCHORED JUST TO OUR NE OVER TN/KY AND WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY IN THE SHORT TERM AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS IS SLOW TO BUILD EAST. NORTHERLY WINDS AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY AS THE LOW STAYS IN PLACE. CLOSER TO THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. JMS VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 03/02Z AS AN UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER THE REGION. ANTECEDENT LOW CLOUDS SHOULD DROP TO MVFR (AND POSSIBLY IFR) AFTER 03/03Z AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST AS THE UPPER LOW MEANDERS AROUND THE REGION.
300 PM EDT TUE JUN 2 2015 NOT MUCH CHANGE IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS. THIS WILL YIELD ANOTHER NIGHT OF STRATUS BUILD DOWN WITH SOME FOG PUSHING BACK ONTO THE RIDGES LATE TONIGHT. PERHAPS JUST A FEW DEGREES WARMER. THE STUBBORN UPPER LEVEL LOW WHICH HAS BEEN CONTROLLING OUR WEATHER WILL BE DRIFTING SOUTHEAST AT THE START OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ON THE HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE LATER TONIGHT. AS TROUGHING CONTINUES TO DIG SOUTH ALONG THE WEST COAST AND A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM HIGH PRESSURE OVER WRN MEX NORTHEASTWARD INTO PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BE SET UP NEAR THE SRN CO/KS BORDER. WITH A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING N/NE. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE RIDING AROUND THE EDGE OF THAT RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO DRIVE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THAT FRONT. THE BETTER CHANCES WILL BE ALONG/NORTH OF THE NOSE OF THE LLJ AND WARMER MID LEVEL TEMPS/CAPPING.
256 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015 THE MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL BE DEEP RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL STATES. THIS WILL BE COINCIDENT WITH AN INCREASINGLY AMPLIFIED UPPER FLOW PATTERN AS A WEST COAST UPPER LOW EVOLVES WITH TIME.
343 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015 UPPER RIDGING BUILDING IN FROM NORTH CENTRAL MEXICO OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL BE THE IMPETUS IN SUPPRESSING REGIONAL PRECIPITATION WHILE PUSHING AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES BACK UP INTO THE 90S.
The main weather maker for the remainder of the forecast package will be an upper level ridge that is forecast to build over the forecast area. This ridge should keep precipitation chances on the low side for the next seven days.
336 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015 CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATED WITH AN ADVANCING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS IS THE PRIMARY FOCUS THROUGH TOMORROW. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS AND INCREASING HEIGHTS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH HAVE FACILITATED A WARMING TREND TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA.
1038 AM PDT TUE JUN 2 2015 An upper trough lingers across the Pacific Northwest through mid week, with a continuing scattered shower and isolated thunderstorm threat.
621 PM EDT TUE JUN 2 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CROSS NORTHERN MAINE TONIGHT.
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC AND THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TODAY. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LATER THIS WEEK AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. EXPECT TEMPS TODAY TO BE SIMILAR OR A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. WITH THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS SEEING HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOW 60S. THERE IS ONE LAST CIRCULATION CENTER MOVING THROUGH TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE LOW LINGERS NOT TOO FAR FROM OUR AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS UPPER RIDGING IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW EDGES IN GRADUALLY FROM THE PLAINS. BUT CURRENT COOLER-THAN-NORMAL CONDITIONS WILL BE MODIFYING TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL (AT LEAST IN TERMS OF HIGH TEMPERATURES) BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. FOR THE END OF THIS WEEK INTO THIS WEEKEND MODEL CONSENSUS LOOKS SUBTLY WARMER WITH MOISTURE CREEPING BACK IN SLOWLY.
126 PM EDT TUE JUN 2 2015 DRY AND INCREASINGLY WARMER WEATHER WILL BE IN STORE FOR THE REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY DRIFTS EAST. HIGHS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE LOWER 70S WITH LOWS TONIGHT DROPPING TO AROUND 50. THIS WILL HELP PUSH THE DEEPER MOISTURE FURTHER EAST AND ALLOW SOMEWHAT WARMER AIR TO CONTINUE TO SPILL IN. SOUNDINGS SHOW MIXING THROUGH 875 TO 850 MB WHICH SHOULD YIELD HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. HAVE STAYED A TOUCH COOLER IN SE AREAS BUT DID RAISE COMPARED TO PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH HIGHS APPROACHING 70. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO TOMORROW MORNING WITH RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE LOCKED IN PLACE.
UPPER LOW OVER THE REGION PRODUCING SCATTERED TO BROKEN CU THIS AFTERNOON.
The mid-level ridge was becoming more positively tilted early this morning, and should stretch from the Southern Plains toward the Great Lakes region by this afternoon. In addition to this MCS, one signal that several of the short-range models are continuing to pick up on is the potential for scattered showers and some thunderstorms to develop across the central portion of the CWA along the eastern edge of the low-level jet axis and the area of instability.
1231 PM CDT Tue Jun 2 2015 Band of showers and storms over eastern KS is rapidly falling apart as it moves past a ridge axis at 700 hPa.
302 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015 12Z UA ANALYSIS HAS A NEAR STATIONARY 850MB HIGH OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. 18Z SFC ANALYSIS HAS HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. QUIET AND PLEASANT CONDITIONS WILL AGAIN BE SEEN LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY DRIFTS INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.
305 PM EDT TUE JUN 2 2015 UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A CLOSED 500 MB LOW OVER EASTERN TN WITH A RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND TROUGHING IN THE WESTERN U.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW HIGH PRESSURE MOVING EAST OF THE REGION DURING THIS TIME. TO THE LOWER 50S SOUTHWEST OF MADISON. WITH ONSHORE WINDS KEEPING COOLER TEMPERATURES NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN.
331 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015 MID-AFTERNOON SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING SSWWD FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND MAINTAINING A DRY NRLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM NRN OLD MEXICO ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS TO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. MEANWHILE RIDGING IS EFFECTIVELY CUTTING OFF ANY REAL SHOT AT CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
1230 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015 HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS STRETCHING FROM MICHIGAN THROUGH THE MISS RIVER VALLEY AND DOWN TO EASTERN TX THIS MORNING. ASSOCIATED WITH A VERY SLOW DRIFTING UPPER LOW TO THE SE. HAVE MADE VERY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST AS A RESULT, WITH MENTION OF THE CLOUD COVER AND DROPPING THE HIGH BY A DEGREE OR SO IN THE SOUTHEAST. ADDITIONAL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY ARE AFFECTING OUR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES SOUTH OF I-70. AND THE UPPER LOW OVER KENTUCKY IS PROJECTED TO SLIDE EASTWARD TODAY. OR INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S. DRY CONDITIONS ON TAP THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS WE REMAIN ON THE PERIPHERY OF A SLOWLY DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE AREA OVER THE GREAT LAKES. DUE TO THE MEANDERING UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN TENNESSEE VALLEY.
AN ATTENDANT TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS SOUTH SOUTHWEST FROM THAT FEATURE TOWARDS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. AT THE SURFACE AND IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE LEVELS. A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS LOCATED FROM THE PIEDMONT SOUTHWEST TO A LOWER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. TEMPERATURES SO FAR HAVE ONLY REACHED THE LOWER 80S. WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S.
225 PM MDT TUE JUN 2 2015 Widespread showers and a few thunderstorms will continue into this evening as southwest flow downstream of a broad upper-level trough over the Pacific NW funnels moisture and weak lift into the Northern Rockies.
106 PM EDT TUE JUN 2 2015 AVIATION HIGH PRESSURE WILL GIVE US TWO DAYS OF SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.
330 PM EDT TUE JUN 2 2015 DRY AND INCREASINGLY WARMER WEATHER WILL BE IN STORE FOR THE REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY DRIFTS EAST. TRANQUIL WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH TOMORROW AS LOW LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS LOCKED IN PLACE BETWEEN CUTOFF LOW TO OUR SOUTHEAST AND MAIN BELT OF WESTERLIES ACROSS CANADA. OBVIOUSLY NOT AS COLD AS LAST NIGHT BUT DID LEAN ON THE COOLER SIDE OF LATEST GUIDANCE AND CUT FORECAST TEMPS BY A FEW DEGREES.
334 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015 A MORE SUMMER LIKE WEATHER PATTERN IS BEGINNING TO TAKE SHAPE AS AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BE BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
CONVECTION WILL BE SLOW TO DISSIPATE DUE TO 500 MB LOW OVER ERN TN TO MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER GA TO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO PROVIDING SYNOPTIC SCALE ASCENT. WEAK COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOCATED FROM NC TO THE FAR WRN FL PANHANDLE WILL DRIFT E. THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE OVER NERN GA WITH TROUGH TO CENTRAL GA TO THE ERN GULF OF MEXICO.
CURRENT IR/WV IMAGERY SHOWS THE CLOSED OFF UPPER LOW SPINNING RIGHT OVER THE TOP OF US. TOMORROW THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LOW MIGRATES A LITTLE FURTHER TO OUR SE WHICH SHOULD HELP TO KEEP THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS OFF TO OUR EAST ONCE AGAIN.
235 PM CDT MON SEP 28 2015 AN INVERTED SFC TROF SPANNED FROM SE CO INTO NC IA THIS AFTERNOON. CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS TROF WAS LEADING TO CU ACROSS EASTERN IA AND WESTERN IL. NORTH WINDS WILL ADVECT MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA. OPERATIONAL MODELS NOW IN AGREEMENT SHOWING A PERSISTENT DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE CENTERED OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES. RIDGING SOUTHWARD INTO IOWA. A COLD FRONT ADVECTING IN FROM THE NORTH WILL AFFECT THE AREA TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW AM.
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA LATE TUESDAY.
UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG THE GULF COAST WILL KEEP THE POSSIBILITY OF FOR ISOLD TO SCT SHWRS IN FOR OUR TERMINALS THROUGH MOST OF THE PD.
1222 PM CDT MON SEP 28 2015 SURFACE MAP EARLY THIS MORNING FEATURES HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY REGION WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH SOUTHWEST MN. RADAR WAS SHOWING SCATTERED BAND OF SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT OVER WESTERN U. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SINK SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS MID-LEVEL TROUGH ENERGY APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS. COOLER/DRIER CANADIAN AIRMASS PUSHES IN ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS MORE TYPICAL OF AUTUMN.
322 PM CDT MON SEP 28 2015 LARGE UPPER LOW OVER THE HUDSON BAY REGION WITH SEVERAL PV ANOMALIES ROTATING AROUND IT. POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER LOW OVER THE E PAC WITH AN UPPER LEVEL PV CONNECTION TO THE UPPER LOW OVER THE HUDSON BAY. NEW COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY PUSH SWD OVERNIGHT WITH MOST OF WESTERN AND NC NEBR REMAINING IN THE POST FRONTAL UPSLOPE FLOW LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. MODELS AGAIN COMING IN COOLER. TOMORROW NIGHT UPSLOPE FLOW THROUGH THE PANHANDLE AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA WITH A STATIONARY BOUNDARY TO THE WEST SEVERAL WEAK WAVES MOVING THROUGH RIDGE.
Some valley locations of western Montana, especially northwestern montana, will likely see below freezing low temperatures for the next couple mornings. Another result of the ridge of high pressure will be poor atmospheric mixing.
Mild through Tuesday then Turning Cooler. The mild weather pattern will continue into Tuesday as the region remains under the influence of a broad upper ridge across the southern tier of the U. In addition an upper level low pressure system positioned over the western Gulf Coast will excerpt some influence on Ozarks weather into Tuesday. A shear axis stretching northeast from the upper level low to the mid-Mississippi Valley will provide some focus for isolated to scattered showers across south central and southeastern Missouri including the eastern Ozarks.
UPSTREAM DEWPOINTS NEAR THE HIGH ARE IN THE LOW/MID 20S. AND IN THE LOW/MID 30S SOUTH. THERE WILL BE SOME MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE REGION AS AN UPPER LOW BECOMES BLOCKED IN SASKATCHEWAN.
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON THROUGH TUESDAY RESULTING IN CLEAR SKIES AND MILD DAYTIME TEMPERATURES.
235 PM CDT MON SEP 28 2015 Every day this week will pretty much be a carbon copy of today with clear to partly cloudy skies and highs in the mid 80s to lower 90s thanks to an upper level ridge stationary over the southwestern United States. The interesting part of the forecast will come over the weekend when a trough moves into the western U. pushing a cold front into the area.
Isolated showers/thunderstorms have developed across parts of Arkansas this afternoon in response to energy from the upper low near the Texas/Louisiana border moving through the region. A similar scenario will play out during the day tomorrow, too, as the low ejects into the lower Mississippi Valley by tomorrow evening.
Stacked upper low continues to spin along the Gulf coast near the Texas/Louisiana border, with broad trofiness extending up the Mississippi and Ohio Valleys. In the northern stream, a sharp cold front is making its way across the Upper Midwest and northern Plains. Expect deep moisture to increase tonight as the low-level flow becomes more southerly. Temp forecast will generally narrow the diurnal ranges from guidance, with daytime highs on the low side of normal and unseasonably warm lows.
259 PM CDT MON SEP 28 2015 Showers have spread northward into mainly our southeast Missouri counties early this afternoon associated with the upper low over the Gulf Coast. Best chances of more widespread showers and possibly some thunderstorms will be Tuesday with the passage of a cold front.
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE AREA AND A SURFACE THERMAL TROUGH INLAND WILL BRING WARM TEMPERATURES TO INLAND AREAS TODAY AND TUESDAY. THE RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER LOW WELL OFFSHORE MOVES TOWARDS THE COAST.
WEST TO NW FLOW ALOFT WITH WEAK SFC LEE TROUGH. NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS TODAY AS A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS OVER ARIZONA AND THE FOUR CORNERS. AND STORMS WILL PROBABLY MIGRATE SOUTHEASTERLY OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES LATE IN THE WEEK SENDING A MOIST BACK DOOR COLD FRONT INTO NEW MEXICO WITH GUSTY WINDS AND BROADER COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION. MODELS ARE NOW KEEPING THE 500 MB HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA AS A SERIES OF WEEK PERTURBATIONS CLIP NE NM IN NW FLOW ALOFT.
153 PM EDT MON SEP 28 2015 A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING SOUTHWEST INTO OHIO WILL WEAKEN THROUGH TUESDAY.
315 PM CDT MON SEP 28 2015 SATELLITE IMAGERY AND UPPER-AIR ANALYSIS THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS A SLOW- MOVING UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR BEAUMONT. AN UPPER-RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE BAJA PENINSULA TO NORTHWEST TEXAS. WITH OUR FORECAST AREA UNDERNEATH THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. GUIDANCE MINIMUM TEMPS FOR TONIGHT STILL LOOK BROADLY ON THE WARM SIDE GIVEN THAT WE DROPPED INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S MOST LOCATIONS THIS MORNING. SURFACE RIDGING WITH EASTERLY WINDS WILL CREEP WESTWARD TONIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. SURFACE RIDGING TO OUR NORTH AND EAST WILL PROMOTE SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS WHICH WILL HELP TO KEEP TEMPS A BIT ON THE WARM SIDE.
A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE MID WEST THIS AFTERNOON WILL SLOWLY MOVE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY EARLY TUESDAY AND THEN APPROACH EAST TN BY TUESDAY EVENING. THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AND CLOUDS WILL ONLY ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S TONIGHT.
648 PM EDT MON SEP 28 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TONIGHT THEN ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO AND NW PA ON TUESDAY.
255 PM CDT MON SEP 28 2015 COLD FRONT WAS DRIFTING SLOWLY SOUTHEAST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND AT 19Z EXTENDED FROM NORTHWEST IOWA TO SOUTHWEST CORNER OF NEBRASKA.
A NEARLY STATIONARY UPPER TROF PRESENTLY EXTENDS FROM W WA TO AN UPPER LOW WELL W OF CENTRAL CA. AS THE N GRADIENT FLOW CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND THE AFOREMENTIONED TROF SLOWLY APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE NW. THE UPPER TROF IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO SHIFT E AND SHEAR BEFORE SHARPENING AGAIN E OF THE AREA. SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES. ARE EXPECTED BY WED AS THE TROF TRANSITS THE AREA. WITH THE DGEX AND GFS DEPICTING A RIDGE ALONG THE W COAST. THE SLIDER SOLUTION WOULD BRING AN INCREASE IN PRECIP FOR THE WEEKEND AS WELL AS COOLER TEMPERATURES. WHILE THE RIDGE SOLUTION WOULD BRING A CONTINUATION OF MOSTLY DRY WX AND WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE STATE. A LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED IN THE LOW LEVELS WITH WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT.
WV imagery shows an upper ridge extending from Baja NE into the upper Midwest, adjacent to a trough centered over the Texas Gulf Coast. Yesterday yielded little in the way of convection developing on the backside of the trough, and today looks even less likely, asthe trough is still forecast to lift NE into the SE CONUS. Instead, the upper ridge builds in, but temps won't fluctuate much, as thicknesses and H85 temps are forecast to change little.
352 PM EDT MON SEP 28 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TONIGHT THEN ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO AND NW PA ON TUESDAY.
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NORTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO EXTREME NW KS AND ACROSS NORTHERN CO. MAN FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE COLD FRONT. SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THIS TROUGH SHOULD LIMIT PRECIP CHANCES THU. THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN DROP A TIGHT UPPER LOW OVER THE PACIFIC NW AND INTO NORTHERN CA BY SAT AFTERNOON. DO HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IS MUCH COOLER AIR MAKING IT DOWN THIS FAR WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S FOR FRI-SUN.
422 PM CDT MON SEP 28 2015 A FAIRLY QUIET AND CLOUDY DAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS AN UPPER LOW SPINS OFF TO THE WEST OF THE AREA OVER THE LA/TX BORDER AT THIS HOUR. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF AS MORE OF A NUISANCE THAN ANYTHING ELSE. THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO BE INFLUENCED BY SOME TROUGHING MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES AS IT BEGINS TO TRANSITION TO AN OPEN FEATURE BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
MAIN WEATHER CONCERN IS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY OFF THE WEST COAST.
415 PM CDT MON SEP 28 2015 MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE LIES WITH THE POSSIBLE TRANSITION TO A COOLER AND WETTER PATTERN BY THIS WEEKEND. AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A CLOSED UPPER LOW ALONG THE TX COAST. DOWNSTREAM OF UPPER RIDGING EXTENDING FROM THE DESERT SW NORTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS. ASIDE FROM SOME CIRRUS SPILLING OVER THE RIDGE AXIS AND A LITTLE FLAT AFTERNOON CU. AND LEE TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH FROM THE LOW THROUGH EASTERN NM.
1127 AM MDT MON SEP 28 2015 GENERALLY DRY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS OUR CWA INITIALLY TODAY IN THE WAKE OF STRONG UPPER TROUGH WELL NORTH OF OUR AREA AND SUPPRESSED HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT TO OUR S/SW.