Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
A COLD FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE AREA IN THE WESTERN DAKOTAS WILL MOVE INTO FAR WESTERN MN BY TOMORROW MORNING. THERE WILL BE A RAPID INCREASE IN DESTABILIZATION AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. IN ADDITION TO THE COLD FRONT. ON FRIDAY THERE SHOULD BE A RATHER QUICK END TO THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. ALLOWING UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TO REESTABLISH ITSELF.
344 PM EDT THU JUL 23 2015 A TROF OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL KEEP UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY.
THIS IS TAPPING MOISTURE FOLDING THROUGH THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS POSITIONED OVER THE MIDWEST AND THEN SPREADING INTO LOWER MICHIGAN VIA NW FLOW ALOFT. EMERGING SW GRADIENT WILL SIGNAL THE ONSET OF RETURN FLOW AS THE UPPER RIDGE FLATTENS AND SHIFTS EAST.
CONVECTION TO BECOME SCATTERED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AFT 20Z. THIS IS PROJECTED TO OCCUR BY THE MAJORITY OF FORECAST MODEL SOLUTIONS DESPITE THE WESTWARD BUILDING OVER THE STATE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT FROM THE EAST.
205 PM EDT THU JUL 23 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE SEASONABLY WARM AND DRY WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND.
310 PM CDT Thu Jul 23 2015 (Tonight and Tomorrow) Upper level high pressure will strengthen as it centers over West Central Texas through tomorrow. The main theme remains the same with an upper level ridge strengthening over the region. Highs approaching 105 degrees aren't completely out of the question, especially for our warmer locations in the Concho Valley.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD SOUTH INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT. THE QUIET CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS SETTLING BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. WITH OUR AREA SITUATED ON THE NORTHEAST PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE. BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND A SHORT WAVE WILL BE ROUNDING THE NORTHEAST PART OF THE UPPER RIDGE WITH A WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT DROPPING TOWARDS KY.
249 PM EDT THU JUL 23 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES WILL DOMINATE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT EASTWARDS OVER THE WEEKEND.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM NEAR AVERAGE FRIDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL THEN IMPACT THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND.
325 PM EDT THU JUL 23 2015 A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST INTO TOMORROW WITH A CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WV IMAGERY SHOWING TROF RIDGE TROF FROM W TO E ACROSS THE CONUS. SFC HAS LOW P OVR THE NERN CORNER OF WY WITH WEAK COLD FRONT DRAPED ROUGHLY ALONG THE BORDER BETWEEN WY AND MT AND A MINOR TROF LAYING JUST TO THE SOUTH. UPR LV SWRLY FLOW WITH EMBEDDED SW TROF MOVING NEAR OR OVR NWRN WY W/ MODEST BUT DECREASING MID LVL MOISTURE ACROSS THE NWRN HALF OF THE STATE. UPR RIDGING BEGINNING WITH DECREASING MOISTURE THROUGHOUT THE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS THE FA.
127 PM EDT THU JUL 23 2015 HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT AT LEAST SCATTERED CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS ALONG/IN VICINITY OF WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS SOUTHERN FA. HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTHEAST WILL MORE EARNESTLY PUMP IN SOME DRIER AIR. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL REMAIN ANCHORED FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE DEEP SOUTH. THE QUAD STATE REGION WILL BE ORIENTED ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. IN ADDITION TO WHERE WEAK IMPULSES OF ENERGY ROTATE AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH.
A LOW-MID LEVEL WARM FRONT. UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A 500 MB RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH A TROUGH IN THE WESTERN U. GFS AND ECMWF ARE ALSO SIMILAR AND WILL HAVE SAT AND SAT NIGHT DRY FOR NOW EXCEPT HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE IN FOR EARLY SAT MORNING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FAR EASTERN CWA.
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PASS THROUGH THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA BRINGING INCREASED SOUTHWEST FLOW AND MUCH DRIER AIR TO THE REGION.
310 PM EDT THU JUL 23 2015 A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE TRANQUIL WEATHER TO THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY.
DRY HIGH PRESSURE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. INITIALLY HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE SURFACE.
1240 PM CDT THU JUL 23 2015 Today/Tonight: The influence of high pressure will help retain quiet weather and seasonable temperatures today across the forecast area. High temperatures will range from the lower 80s in northeast Missouri to the upper 80s in east central Kansas. A H85 thermal axis will stretch into far northwest Missouri, and hot surface temperatures are expected to return for the area, with highs in the lower to middle 90s.
NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR WILL RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND.
MORE WIDESPREAD BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER THIS AFTERNOON HAS ALLOWED THE TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE LOWER 90S AT 21Z AT THE TUCSON INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT. WITH THE HIGHEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF THE TUCSON METRO AREA ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER.
412 PM EDT THU JUL 23 2015 THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR WILL RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND.
TEMPS WILL AGAIN BE HOT ON FRIDAY WITH THE HIGHEST HEAT INDICES IN THE DELTA REGION.
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN MONTANA THIS AFTERNOON. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT LOCATED ACROSS NORTHWESTERN WYOMING. HUMIDITIES THIS AFTERNOON HAVE FALLEN INTO THE LOW 20 PERCENT TO MID TEEN PERCENT ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING. LOW PRESSURE THAT IS CURRENTLY IN MONTANA MOVES EAST WITH 700MB WINDS EASING SOMEWHAT. RATHER TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN EXPECTED WITH AN UPPER HIGH CENTEREDOVER THE SOUTHERN CONUS WITH THE CWA ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF IT.
328 PM CDT THU JUL 23 2015 WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FIRMLY IN PLACE. A TROUGH TRIES TO MOVE THROUGH. WEAKENING THE RIDGE JUST ENOUGH TO BRING IN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AND COOL TEMPERATURES BY A FEW DEGREES.
THE BOUNDARY WILL BE PUSHING SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REGION. A BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS WILL PRODUCE A MORE NORTHERLY FLOW THAT WILL ADVECT DRIER AIR SEEN IN WV IMAGERY OVER IL/IN INTO THE TN VALLEY. WILL HAVE HIGH TEMPS A LITTLE BELOW GUIDANCE DUE TO EXPECTED AM CLOUDS AND FOG AND THE HIGH SOIL MOISTURE FROM TODAY'S RAINFALL.
639 PM EDT THU JUL 23 2015 A TROF OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL KEEP UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS DOMINANT OVER THE WEST GULF AND THE TEXAS COAST. 500 MB RIDGING WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS STATES THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A PRETTY STABLE AIR MASS REMAINING IN PLACE OVER THE RGV. THE LATEST SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE MAINTAINS THE DEEPER LAYER TROPICAL MOISTURE ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE RIDGE AXIS LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND WESTERN MEXICO. THIS MOISTURE HAS LITTLE CHANCE PUSHING EAST IN THE MEAN RIDGE AXIS. WITH THE 500 MB RIDGE AXIS REMAINING IN PLACE EXPECT PRETTY MUCH STATUS QUO TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE RGV TODAY THROUGH FRI. THE ECMWF HAS A WARMER BIAS FOR THE MFE AREA VERSUS THE MAV AND MET NUMBERS.
1240 PM CDT THU JUL 23 2015 HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO CONTROL THE WEATHER ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS THIS MORNING. RESULTING AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO HOLD OVER THE MIDWEST EARLY THIS MORNING BRINGING A CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKY AND LIGHT WINDS TO MOST OF THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER PLEASANTLY WARM DAY TODAY WITH LIGHT WINDS AND AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO WHERE THEY WERE YESTERDAY, IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. COMPLIMENTS OF 1015 MB HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST THAT SHIFTS EAST INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY BY FRIDAY.
RIDGING ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL KEEP THINGS QUIET THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. CLEAR SKIES COMBINED WITH CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT SHOULD COMBINE TO ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE LOW 60S. MEDIUM LOW LEVEL TROUGH PASSAGE EXPECTED THIS PERIOD AS LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OF LAKE SUPERIOR.
403 PM EDT THU JUL 23 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE SEASONABLY WARM AND DRY WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND.
316 PM CDT THU JUL 23 2015 EARLY AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A BROAD UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER TEXAS. 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATED THAT THE STRENGTH OF THIS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WAS RELATIVELY AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR IN TERMS OF THE HEIGHT OF THE 500 MB LEVEL. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IN THE SUMMER GENERALLY SUPPORTS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BECAUSE UPPER LEVEL RIDGES RESULT IN SINKING AIR AND SUNNY SKIES. THE WARMER WE TEND TO GET.
1118 AM MDT THU JUL 23 2015 THE PREDAWN WATER VAPOR LOOP DEPICTED A CENTRAL CONUS UPPER RIDGE FLANKED BY TROUGHS OVER THE WESTERN AND EASTERN CONUS. SURFACE FEATURES INCLUDED A WEAK RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. AND WEAK TROUGHS OVER THE NORTH/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND CENTRAL WY. UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS WILL RIDGE NORTH INTO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS/UPPER MIDWEST DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. IT WILL BE WARMER TODAY AS 700 MB TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE MID TEENS CELSIUS. A LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE HIGH PLAINS WHERE HIGHS WILL SOAR WELL INTO THE 90S.
A RIDGE ALOFT WILL KEEP CLOUDS MINIMAL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. BUT DEWPOINTS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID 70S WILL BRING HEAT INDEX VALUES OVER 110 IN SOME AREAS.
355 PM EDT THU JUL 23 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN INTO THE WEEKEND AS A COLD FRONT WILL SAG INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA. BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO RE-ESTABLISH. SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CONTINUES TO BE CENTERED SOUTH OF SOUTH FLORIDA.
429 PM CDT THU JUL 23 2015 ANOTHER TYPICAL HOT SUNNY DAY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHERN LOUISIANA AS THE RIDGE ALOFT REMAINS FIRMLY PLANTED OVER THE REGION.
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGE SHOWS THE UPPER TROUGH EAST OF THE CASCADES. A WEAK UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND SHOWERS WILL DECREASE AND END LATER THIS EVENING. OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TODAY.
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 68 44 70 54 / 0 0 0 20 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 66 42 69 51 / 0 0 0 10 OAK RIDGE, TN 67 41 70 51 / 0 0 0 10 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 65 35 68 45 / 0 0 0 10.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE REGION WILL BRING VERY STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS TODAY ALONG WITH AREAS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
923 AM EDT TUE MAR 22 2016 A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH LATER IN THE DAY TODAY AND BRING INCREASING CLOUDS. THIS LOW MOVE ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT BRINGING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE MOUNTAINS AND A FEW RAIN SHOWERS FURTHER SOUTH.
WENT AHEAD AND UPPED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN THIS AREA, BUT STILL EXPECTING LESS THAN AN INCH AT LOWER ELEVATIONS, WITH THE HIGHER ACCUMULATIONS AT AND ABOVE 5000 FT. SURFACE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA.
1016 AM EDT TUE MAR 22 2016 VERY DRY CONDITIONS AND SUNNY SKIES ARE FORECAST ONCE AGAIN TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVERHEAD. TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY WARM TODAY INTO THE LOWER 70S.
/issued 337 AM CDT TUE MAR 22 2016/ (Today and Tonight) An upper trough over the northwest CONUS today will continue to dig to the southeast with a closed upper low forming over the Southern Plains tonight. At the surface, a closed low over the Southern Plains will serve to maintain a tight surface pressure gradient across West Central Texas with south winds of 15 to 25 mph, with higher gusts. High temperatures will be above seasonal norms in the upper 70s to the lower 80s.
A PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INLAND ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN TODAY. BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND WINDY CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AFTER THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES EAST ON WEDNESDAY. WATER VAPOR/IR SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOW THE DEEP UPPER LOW CURRENTLY MOVING INLAND OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST STATES. THE FAVORABLE MOISTURE AND FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL REMAIN WELL TO OUR NORTH. WINDS ALONG THE MOUNTAIN RIDGE TOPS HAVE STRENGTHENED. COLDER AIR WILL BE QUICKLY IMPORTED INTO THE REGION AS THE LOW TREKS EASTWARD. TO 40 MPH PLUS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF PHOENIX AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MOGOLLON RIM. ONLY WARMING UP INTO THE LOW 80S THIS AFTERNOON. THE UPPER LOW WILL BE EAST OF ARIZONA. INTO THE UPPER 70S FOR THE LOWER DESERT ELEVATIONS.
BUT MIN RH PERCENTAGES IN THE LOW 20S TO THE TEENS MAY BE POSSIBLE FOR SOME AREAS. A TIGHTENING GRADIENT, BETWEEN A DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM OVER THE PLAINS AND A HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST, WILL PRODUCE GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
GOOD TO VERY GOOD DISPERSION WILL PRODUCE A FIRE SENSITIVE DAY CONSIDERING THE LOW RH AND INCREASING ERC VALUES.
1046 AM EDT TUE MAR 22 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST THROUGH MIDWEEK.
1035 AM CDT TUE MAR 22 2016 LOWERED DAYTIME HIGHS A COUPLE OF DEGREES ACROSS THE REGION DUE TO COOLER NORTHEAST FLOW AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER. A WEAK WAVE TOPPING THE BROAD CENTRAL CONUS RIDGE IS RESPONSIBLE FOR SCATTERED LIGHT RETURNS ON RADAR THIS AM. WHICH COULD BRING MORE SNOW THAN EXPECTED TO THE WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN CWA DESPITE SURFACE TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING.
We adjusted dewpoints more toward the latest HRRR runs which allows dewpoints to drop into the lower 20s this afternoon. In addition gusty southwest winds of 15 to 20 MPH with gusts up to 30-35 MPH will combine with the low humidity to produce heightened wildfire conditions across the region. The short term will be dominated by warm and dry southerly surface flow as we sit between high pressure moving off the southeast coast and low pressure organizing over the central Plains. On Wednesday southerly flow will continue and a cold front will be nearing from the west, but increasing clouds will offset temps a bit, so will once again forecast highs in the middle and upper 60s.
/Issued 318 AM PDT TUE MAR 22 2016/ Much cooler temperatures and brisk winds are expected through tonight as low pressure exits the region. Otherwise, very few changes of note were made as high pressure builds over California and Nevada. Models have been slower in relaxing the pressure gradient today as the upper flow tilts Northwest-Southeast in the wake of an exiting low pressure system. Otherwise, conditions improve moving into mid/late week as high pressure builds over the region. After a relatively cold night tonight, lows in the teens for Sierra Valleys and mid 20s to around 30 degrees for Western Nevada, temperatures begin to trend warmer. High temperatures were lowered a little north of Interstate 80 Wednesday as a result of persistent cloud cover - generally remaining in the low/mid 50s while the rest of Western Nevada warms into the low/mid 60s.
SPEAKING OF WHICH A TIGHTENING GRADIENT IS PROGGED AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER EAST AND IS REPLACED BY LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS. HIGH PRESSURE HAS SHIFTED EAST OF THE AREA OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS AND IS NOW LOCATED OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF SOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA. WITH THE RIDGE CENTERED EAST OF THE AREA WINDS HAVE BECOME SOUTHERLY ALBEIT VERY LIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS AHEAD OF THE DISTURBANCE AND SERVE TO TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT LOCALLY INCREASING THE SOUTH FLOW. BEHIND THE FRONT COOLER TEMPS WILL RETURN WITH TEMPS RUNNING SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMO AVERAGES.
958 AM EDT TUE MAR 22 2016 AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN SITUATED SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION.
A COLD START HAS GIVEN WAY TO TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S AT 10 AM. PRODUCING SOME FROSTY AND FREEZING CONDITIONS. FURTHER WEST MOSTLY FROST WAS SEEN WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S. HIGH PRESSURE HAS PUSHED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND CURRENTLY IS CENTERED OVER SOUTHWESTERN GA. BASED ON CURRENT TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S SEEN IN OBSERVATIONS. THIS SHOULD DROP DEWPOINTS FROM THE LOWER 30S INTO THE LOWER 20S.
637 AM CDT TUE MAR 22 2016 A WEAK WAVE TOPPING THE BROAD CENTRAL CONUS RIDGE IS RESPONSIBLE FOR SCATTERED LIGHT RETURNS ON RADAR THIS AM. WHICH COULD BRING MORE SNOW THAN EXPECTED TO THE WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN CWA DESPITE SURFACE TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING.
A BROAD HIGH PRESSURE CELL CENTERED OVER NORTH FLORIDA IS DRIVING FRESH TO STRONG NORTHEAST BREEZES ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS. COOLER WATER TEMPERATURES IN FLORIDA BAY AND BAYSIDE OF THE MIDDLE KEYS WILL LIKELY PREVENT VEERING. A CONTINENTAL HIGH PRESSURE CELL WILL MOVE GRADUALLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TODAY FOR SHOWERS. AND SOUTHERN TWIN FALLS COUNTY WILL SEE THE HIGHEST WINDS AT 20 TO 30 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 40 KTS THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING DIMINISHING BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
A COLD PACIFIC TROUGH WILL CROSS THE GREAT BASIN TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.
627 AM CDT TUE MAR 22 2016 08z/3am surface analysis shows ridge of high pressure extending from the eastern Great Lakes to the Gulf Coast, while a 1000mb low develops over South Dakota. 00z Mar 22 models have come into much better agreement concerning the mid-week storm system, with the NAM/GEM/ECMWF all tracking low pressure across north-central Illinois by 12z Thu. Large upper trough currently evident on latest water vapor imagery along the West Coast will cross the Rockies and help the Plains low deepen over northern Kansas by 12z Wed.
A COLD PACIFIC TROUGH WILL CROSS THE GREAT BASIN TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. AN UPPER TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE GREAT BASIN THIS MORNING HAS ALREADY PUSHED A COLD FRONT THROUGH NORTHWEST AND WEST-CENTRAL UTAH. PRECIPITATION HAS FILLED IN ACROSS THE AREA ALONG AND BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT. FAR SOUTHERN UTAH ALONG THE ARIZONA BORDER ALONG WITH SOME OF THE EASTERN UTAH VALLEYS COULD SEE STRONGER WINDS AS THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THIS AREA FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH LOCAL GUSTS OVER 40 MPH POSSIBLE.
718 AM EDT TUE MAR 22 2016 A QUIET WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM UNDER WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE INFLUENCE. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL RESULT IN COLD TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S FOR MOST AREAS THIS MORNING. LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS EACH DAY. AND SLIGHTLY COOLER FOR LOWS TONIGHT UNDER CLEAR SKIES.
/ISSUED 340 AM EDT TUE MAR 22 2016/ HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA TODAY AND INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS ON WEDNESDAY. THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE FURTHER EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC WATERS LATE THIS WEEK. AS A COLD FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES.
UPPER FLOW FOR TODAY IS ZONAL AS AN UPPER LOW DEEPENS OVER ALBERTA AND TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THUS HAVE THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY CREATING A LARGE TEMPERATURE SPREAD. HIGHS IN SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA SHOULD REACH INTO THE LOW 90S WITH TEMPERATURES 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT.
942 AM EDT THU JUL 16 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL DRIFT EAST AND MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY. DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE BY EARLY EVENING IN THE WEST AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA. THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES TODAY WILL MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TONIGHT. SO BUMPED POPS TO LIKELY PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM SO FRONT LIFTS BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT.
937 AM EDT THU JUL 16 2015 HIGH PRESSURE TODAY. TURNING WARMER THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH RAIN CHANCES RETURNING.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP INITIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THEN MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST OR EAST.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH THE HIGHER COVERAGE OVER EASTERN ARIZONA.
932 AM EDT THU JUL 16 2015 MORNING RAOB DATA FROM AROUND THE STATE SHOWS A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS COVERING THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING AS A DEEP LAYERED SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH AND A FRONTAL TROUGH ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL GEORGIA. IN ADDITION THE HIGH PW'S AND SLOW STORM MOVEMENT (5 TO 10 MPH) WILL SUPPORT CHANCES FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN SOME LOCATIONS WHICH MAY PRODUCE SOME MINOR FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.
THE MAIN QUESTION TODAY WILL BE THE PROXIMITY OF A WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH AND ITS AFFECT ON CONVECTIVE INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN CENTERED OVER EASTERN TEXAS WITH TROUGHING ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. GFS/NAM SOLUTIONS SHOW A WEAK LOBE OF ENERGY EMANATING SOUTHWARD FROM THE TROUGH AND INTO THE BAHAMAS AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE ATLANTIC COAST OF SOUTH FLORIDA. THEREFORE THE EXACT POSITION OF THE TROUGH WILL PLAY AN IMPORTANT ROLE IN CONVECTIVE INTENSITY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE DEPICTION OF THIS TROUGH BY THE ECMWF HOWEVER IS MORE INDISTINCT. THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MOVE AWAY FROM SOUTH FLORIDA FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING SOUTH OUT OF WESTERN CANADA WILL SETTLE INTO THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN GREAT BASIN ON FRIDAY. MOISTURE TO THE SOUTH OF UTAH WILL BE DRAWN NORTH BY THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
HOWEVER, IF SURFACE TEMPS WARM UP INTO THE LOWER 90S, THE ANALYSIS INDICATES THE POTENTIAL FOR DOWNBURSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH. THE MAIN QUESTION TODAY WILL BE THE PROXIMITY OF A WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH AND ITS AFFECT ON CONVECTIVE INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN CENTERED OVER EASTERN TEXAS WITH TROUGHING ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. GFS/NAM SOLUTIONS SHOW A WEAK LOBE OF ENERGY EMANATING SOUTHWARD FROM THE TROUGH AND INTO THE BAHAMAS AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE ATLANTIC COAST OF SOUTH FLORIDA. THEREFORE THE EXACT POSITION OF THE TROUGH WILL PLAY AN IMPORTANT ROLE IN CONVECTIVE INTENSITY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE DEPICTION OF THIS TROUGH BY THE ECMWF HOWEVER IS MORE INDISTINCT. THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MOVE AWAY FROM SOUTH FLORIDA FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THE 5H TEMPS ARE WARMER TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND -7C WITH ANY HAIL BEING RATHER SMALL WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.
TO THE NORTH A COLD FRONT WAS CROSSING THE CANADIAN BORDER A LITTLE AFTER 9 AM AND WILL BE INTO CUT BANK BEFORE NOON. THIS COLD FRONT WILL SPREAD SOUTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON POSSIBLY REACHING SOUTHWEST MONTANA BY LATE AFTERNOON. FINALLY IN LINE WITH THE FASTER TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT HAVE LOWERED TEMPERATURES OVER THE NORTHWEST PLAINS FOR THE REST OF TODAY. BRUSDA /ISSUED 450 AM MDT THU JUL 16 2015/ A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROF IS OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MORE THROUGH CUT BANK BY LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE CENTRAL ZONES DURING THE EVENING. ALSO, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE REGION. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROF TILTS NEGATIVELY BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND ALSO SHOWS SIGNS OF SPLITTING.
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM REMAINED OVER EASTERN WI EARLY THIS MORNING. A WEAKER THAN EXPECTED S/W TROF AND SLOWER ARRIVAL TIME OF A H8 WARM FRONT. BEST WAA/MOISTURE CONVG ASSOC WITH THE H8 WARM FRONT WILL AFFECT OUR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN COUNTIES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SHOWERS AND TSTMS SHOULD TAPER OFF OVER EASTERN WI OVERNIGHT AS THE SFC/H8 WARM FRONTS SHIFT NE AND H8 FLOW VEERS WEST.
THIS IS ALSO THE LOWEST TEMPERATURE EVER RECORDED IN JULY.
THIS MORNING STARTED OFF A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY WITH THE LACK OF CLOUD COVER. LINGERING OVERNIGHT CONVECTION IN THE UPPER MS VALLEY WILL BE DEFLECTED AWAY FROM THE TN VALLEY DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE OVER TX/AR/LA. TODAY WILL BE HOT ONCE AGAIN WITH TEMPS IN THE LOW/MID 90S. WE COULD ENTRAIN ENOUGH DRY AIR FROM DEEP MIXING OF NORTHERLY FLOW TO ALLOW DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S/UPPER 60S FOR TODAY.
SITTING ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SRN PLAINS. BROAD LOW PRESSURE SITS OVER CENTRAL/W CENTRAL PORTIONS OF NEB.