Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
A few showers continue to impact the northeastern half of the forecast area this evening, mainly over the higher elevations.
The mid/upper level trough axis over our area will shift east tonight and a short wave ridge will build in before shifting off to our east later Monday as the next short wave trough and cold front approach from the west.
MVFR/IFR CIGs may linger thru the day on Monday, with a cold front expected to move thru the Mid State after 18z.
205 PM PDT Sun Oct 11 2020 A strong upper ridge over the Pacific will expand over Southern California this week bringing heat, low relative humidity, and locally gusty winds, enhancing the wildfire risk.
619 PM CDT Sun Oct 11 2020 Breezy conditions will continue for the next few hours for all terminals before diminishing ahead of an approaching cold front. A rather short wavelength upper trough is rapidly translating eastward into the central and northern Plains this afternoon.
Generally VFR conditions expected through the period, but a strong cold front will provide a sharp wind shift along with increased sfc winds and wind shear on Monday.
1034 PM EDT Sun Oct 11 2020 Currently - A high pressure system off the southeast coast extends a ridge southwest into the Bahamas and westward across the Florida Straits. The ridge in our area is weak and weakened further by day time heating over Florida. This is likely due to the weak and largely diffluent flow along the weak ridge axis. Short Term Update - Winds will remain weak through the overnight period and will likely become varying in direction due to the proximity of the weak ridge. A weak ridge axis across the Florida Straits will result variable to generally northwest breezes across Keys waters through the overnight period.
701 PM CDT Sun Oct 11 2020 A closed upper low in northern Canada and its associated long wave trofs will affect the forecast area tonight through Monday night. The first trof and its co-located cold front will move through northeast Minnesota tonight, and through the Arrowhead and northwest Wisconsin Monday. The showers will end by Monday afternoon over the Arrowhead and northwest Wisconsin as high pressure begins to build across the Northland. Monday night finds the next upper trof moving into northeast Minnesota with the next cold front. Showers will develop overnight as the best forcing from the upper trof arrives.
However, a strong cold front now barreling through the Oklahoma Panhandle and about to enter the northern Texas Panhandle, will move into our northern zones late this evening, around 11 PM to midnight. /issued 619 PM CDT Sun Oct 11 2020/ Breezy conditions will continue for the next few hours for all terminals before diminishing ahead of an approaching cold front. A rather short wavelength upper trough is rapidly translating eastward into the central and northern Plains this afternoon.
With 500 mb ridging holding atop the region, anticipate well above average temperatures to continue through the short term period.
Current surface analysis shows cold front is now east of the forecast area, with gusty northwesterly winds across much of the area, strongest generally over northwest SD into the west central SD plains. Temps last hour ranged from the upper 30s and 40s over northeast WY and the Black Hills to the lower 70s over south central SD.
Satellite and surface obs show a cold front in the James Valley this afternoon with cu clouds developing along it. There also could be some more showers/storms with the upper level lift from the digging short wave trough coming in from the west. It will become/remain windy behind the cold front into the early evening hours before decreasing late evening. Skies will also clear quickly through the night behind the upper level low pressure trough. Monday will be mostly sunny across the cwa as the mixing layer deepens bringing breezy/windy west to southwest winds along with cooler temperatures. The models then show a short wave trough dropping in from the northwest Monday afternoon and night. Expect steady west to northwest winds at 10 to 20 mph with lows in the upper 30s to the lower 40s Monday night.
308 AM CDT Mon Oct 12 2020 Drier air is filling in behind the cold front that passed through the area yesterday evening, and this is allowing skies to clear relatively quickly. Later this morning, we will see winds transition to more westerly and southwesterly as the upper trough continues eastward. Despite the cooler airmass, the relatively dry air and westerly wind component should allow temperatures to rise into the 70s.
A cold front will move across the region on Monday with a winds shift to the NW between 16-20z.
Well-defined cold front will push through the Ohio Valley during the late afternoon and evening, and should be accompanied by a broken line of quick-hitting showers.
In the upper levels, a weak ridge will build into the region today with nearly zonal flow expected tonight. Tonight a weak cold front will approach the region.
Prevailed the lower categories at the MLU terminal until we can get the IFR stratus deck northward which should help with the VSBY concerns. Otherwise, all terminals should see IFR ceilings near or before sunrise ahead of a strong cold front which attm as located across NW TX into NW OK.
There are also some low clouds in the area above the fog, and forecast soundings indicate we may not really get much mixing in the lower levels this morning. Most of the energy and moisture associated with this front/trough will be further to our north, so the rainfall and QPF forecasts are pretty limited during FROPA, with the best chances being in northeast Tennessee and southwest Virginia.
High pressure will bring back dry conditions for this week.
1234 AM CDT Mon Oct 12 2020 A closed upper low in northern Canada and its associated long wave trofs will affect the forecast area tonight through Monday night. The first trof and its co-located cold front will move through northeast Minnesota tonight, and through the Arrowhead and northwest Wisconsin Monday. The showers will end by Monday afternoon over the Arrowhead and northwest Wisconsin as high pressure begins to build across the Northland. Monday night finds the next upper trof moving into northeast Minnesota with the next cold front. Showers will develop overnight as the best forcing from the upper trof arrives.
(Today and tonight) Strong cold front moving across the area this morning will continue to move quickly south and east of the area with gusty north winds in its wake. Much cooler temperatures are also expected today, with highs some 15 to as much as 25 degrees cooler than yesterdays.
A strong cold front will provide a sharp wind shift along with increased surface winds/wind shear.
(Today and tonight) Strong cold front was just north of I-20 at 3 AM, moving south at 40 to 45 mph. The front will end the heat, with cooler temperatures in store today, from the mid/upper 70s in the Big Country to lower to mid 80s south. Lows will be in the upper 40s to lower 50s, with the cooler readings in the Big Country and in low lying and protected areas.
318 AM CDT Mon Oct 12 2020 Water vapor loop and RAP 500mb analysis showing very strong mid- level trough pushing east through the Northern/Central Plains. Moisture transport and focusing convergence along the surface cold front was fueling a pretty solid ~100 mi wide band of showers and storm from the Arrowhead of MN southward into south central MN and north central IA. The cold front and line of showers will steadily progress eastward across the area this morning, exiting into eastern WI by 2 or 3 pm.
Even with the lower forecasted highs today, RH values are expected to drop into the lower teens to near 20 percent across the area today, with dry air continuing to advect in. This should translate to wind gusts of up to 30-35mph and with the low RH values expected, see no reason to make any changes to the ongoing Red Flag Warning.
238 AM CDT Mon Oct 12 2020 Winds are starting to increase behind the cold front across portions of Osage county with a 40 mile per hour gust being reported in Burbank.
1143 PM CDT Sun Oct 11 2020 A cold front will move through the area tonight with a few thunderstorms expected ahead of it through about 5z. It even looks like areas from about a Ivanhoe to Cherokee line east will have some turning in the low level wind field which might support low level rotation and an isolated tornado threat. There may be some trailing showers or even an isolated thunderstorm through about midnight as a cold front aloft moves in behind the cold front at the surface with some indication of very weak instability aloft. High pressure moves south of the area tonight into Monday which will leave us in a mixy westerly environment during this time. This will keep lows from dropping too much with most location in the low to mid 40s by Monday morning.
/issued Issued by National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX/ Dry high pressure in the upper levels dominating the weather across SW LA today allowing for abundant sunshine and temperatures climbing up into the mid 80s to around 90 with low level moisture sufficient for heat indices in the 99-92 degree range. A cold front in Kansas this afternoon will drop southward and should arrive into the areas near Jasper in the late afternoon/early evening Monday this will give the region another above normal round of temperatures with southwesterly flow in place ahead of the front.
Dry high pressure in the upper levels dominating the weather across SW LA today allowing for abundant sunshine and temperatures climbing up into the mid 80s to around 90 with low level moisture sufficient for heat indices in the 99-92 degree range. A cold front in Kansas this afternoon will drop southward and should arrive into the areas near Jasper in the late afternoon/early evening Monday this will give the region another above normal round of temperatures with southwesterly flow in place ahead of the front.
140 AM EDT Mon Oct 12 2020 A front will remain stationary over far southeastern NC tonight and early Monday as weak low pressure slowly moves across the region.
438 AM EDT Mon Oct 12 2020 A fast moving cold front will move across the area today and bring gusty winds, showers, and possibly a few storms.
206 AM EDT Mon Oct 12 2020 Aviation - Showers and storms Monday afternoon - Mild through mid-week - Cooling trend late week -- Showers and storms Monday afternoon -- Should start the day with low stratus, which will gradually lift with deeper mixing mainly caused by low-level warm air advection, but might not scatter out before the cold front arrives in the afternoon.
Despite lack of showers on radar, the low levels remain quite saturated and expect fog and areas of drizzle to persist through the overnight hours. ABM Chattanooga Airport, TN 81 58 77 53 81 / 10 10 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 78 58 74 51 78 / 10 20 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 79 56 75 49 78 / 10 20 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 75 56 72 47 76 / 10 20 0 0 0.
313 AM CDT Mon Oct 12 2020 06Z surface data has the cold front from eastern Minnesota south through central Iowa and into southeast Kansas. Dew points ahead of the cold front were in the upper 50s and 60s. Behind the cold front dew points were in the 30s and 40s. Convection is developing along the outflow boundary from the earlier storms with the cold front mysteriously quiet. Based on trends convection should continue to develop along the outflow boundary with additional storms developing on the cold front through sunrise. After sunrise the cold front will quickly finish moving through the area.
Weak upper ridging is currently in place but that will break down quickly later today. Eyes now on a weak cold front that will push into the area late today, and then east this evening. SFC/LL high pressure and near zonal upper flow then moves it behind, leaving us with a dry Tues/Wed. But another cold front is quickly following, and this front is expected to cross the mid-state later Thu into Thu night. This colder air will moderate through the weekend as high pressure moves to our east. Otw, cloudiness to persist into Monday as a cold front approaches.
409 AM EDT Mon Oct 12 2020 Low pressure will track slowly northeastward across central and eastern NC today, then offshore tonight.
357 AM CDT Mon Oct 12 2020 The advertised cold front plowed through the forecast area overnight bringing strong winds, and showers and thunderstorms to far northwest Missouri and northeast Kansas.
328 AM CDT Mon Oct 12 2020 A cold front will trigger scattered showers across central Illinois today. Once the front passes, strong northwesterly winds gusting 30 to 40mph will bring cooler conditions into the area. 08z/3am surface analysis shows a cold front extending from Minnesota southward to Texas. High pressure will build into the region tonight, bringing clear skies and diminishing winds. Overnight lows will drop into the lower to middle 40s.
400 AM CDT Mon Oct 12 2020 The upper-level longwave trough that brought Sunday's active weather has exited to the east, with dry northwest flow aloft in its wake. At the surface cooler and drier air has advected into the region behind the cold front. Despite the cooler air mass, temperatures remain a bit above seasonal normals, with mid 60s to around 70 for afternoon highs.
Otw, cloudiness to persist into Monday as a cold front approaches.
Storms that developed ahead of the strong mid tropospheric trough had pushed east earlier this morning, but there were still some spotty showers occurring from the mid clouds over the area. The trough will continue to move eastward today, with clouds and showers moving out mainly before sunrise this morning.
247 AM CDT Mon Oct 12 2020 An upper trough has crossed onto the Central Plains early this morning and will quickly push to the Great Lakes region later today.
A large lobe of high PV air associated with the Arctic tropopause and also with a large associated 500 mb trough is forecast to settle in over the eastern US.
A strong cold front will be marching across the TAF sites over the next 6 hours. After another day of well above normal temperatures, a strong cold front will move through the area late tonight into early tomorrow morning.
1148 PM CDT Sun Oct 11 2020 Showers exiting the eastern fcst area at 05z and should be totally out no later than 07z as the cold front moves east. Cold front located near Warroad to Bagley to just west of Wadena at 0230z. After that the cooler air lingers over the entire region, with 850 mb temps remaining in the -4 to -8C range, limiting high temps to the 40s by then, with lows near or below freezing.
250 AM CDT Mon Oct 12 2020 Strong pressure rises behind an advancing cold front across Kansas is resulting in strong northwest winds in its wake. Otherwise, gusts are not expected this high further east and should remain below advisory criteria. Look for highs this afternoon just High pressure will build from Oklahoma into Missouri tonight and with the cooler and drier air in place will see lows in the mid to upper 40s under clear skies.
339 AM CDT Mon Oct 12 2020 Latest water vapor imagery is showing a sharp trough over the northern and central Plains early this morning. At the surface, a cold front extends from central Iowa into eastern Kansas. The latest runs of the HREF brings the upper trough across the Mississippi River Valley at midday and into the Great Lakes this evening.
349 AM CDT Mon Oct 12 2020 Upper level trough axis was into central Kansas at 08Z with residual moisture exiting to the northeast. The cold front was through all but the southeast corner of Kansas. Weak surface ridging crossing east across the state today brings west winds back to eastern Kansas and a decent afternoon WAA pattern.
356 AM CDT Mon Oct 12 2020 A cold front is making steady progress across North Texas this morning and this feature is going to arrive about 6 hours ahead of schedule and this will force some modifications with regards to MaxT today.
However, a weak cold front will be moving down from the northeast through the day today bringing a relief from the high dew points and usher in slightly cooler temperatures.
511 AM CDT Mon Oct 12 2020 Light rain will clear out from west to east this morning, as skies clear out and drier air filters moves in to the region behind an exiting cold front. Another mild and breezy day is expected Tuesday with temperatures again warming into the low to mid 60s.
Well-defined cold front will push through the Ohio Valley during the late afternoon and evening, and should be accompanied by a broken line of quick-hitting showers. Pacific high pressure will give us dry and mild fall weather through the middle of the week. A series of disturbances Thu-Fri will carve out a broad, deepening upper trof to bring the coolest air so far this season.
(This afternoon through Tuesday) Update zones for patchy dust along and behind the cold front early this morning. (Today and tonight) Strong cold front was just north of I-20 at 3 AM, moving south at 40 to 45 mph. The front will end the heat, with cooler temperatures in store today, from the mid/upper 70s in the Big Country to lower to mid 80s south. Lows will be in the upper 40s to lower 50s, with the cooler readings in the Big Country and in low lying and protected areas.
616 AM CDT Mon Oct 12 2020 Water vapor loop and RAP 500mb analysis showing very strong mid- level trough pushing east through the Northern/Central Plains. Moisture transport and focusing convergence along the surface cold front was fueling a pretty solid ~100 mi wide band of showers and storm from the Arrowhead of MN southward into south central MN and north central IA. The cold front and line of showers will steadily progress eastward across the area this morning, exiting into eastern WI by 2 or 3 pm. Ridging at the surface gives way to another cold front dropping through on Tuesday, but this front's passage will be dry.
After a brief period of near normal temperatures, high pressure will push temperatures back to well above average by the middle of the week. The weak upper low that moved over Baja and brought slightly cooler weather over the weekend will remain cut-off from the main storm track this week.
801 AM EDT Mon Oct 12 2020 Latest RAP model has weak mid level ridging building over the Gulf of Mexico as a short wave trough slides across northern FL to the Atlantic today. Not much cooler air works in. High pressure dominates with west and northwest winds mostly below 15 knots for the next couple of days.
Strong pressure rises behind an advancing cold front across Kansas is resulting in strong northwest winds in its wake. Otherwise, gusts are not expected this high further east and should remain below advisory criteria. Look for highs this afternoon just High pressure will build from Oklahoma into Missouri tonight and with the cooler and drier air in place will see lows in the mid to upper 40s under clear skies.
625 AM CDT Mon Oct 12 2020 Latest water vapor imagery is showing a sharp trough over the northern and central Plains early this morning. At the surface, a cold front extends from central Iowa into eastern Kansas. The latest runs of the HREF brings the upper trough across the Mississippi River Valley at midday and into the Great Lakes this evening. Then mainly dry weather is expected from tonight through Tuesday as subsidence sets in behind the trough at the same time there will be a deep, dry layer through the atmosphere behind the front.
606 AM CDT Mon Oct 12 2020 The advertised cold front plowed through the forecast area overnight bringing strong winds, and showers and thunderstorms to far northwest Missouri and northeast Kansas.
/issued 411 AM CDT Mon Oct 12 2020/ Strong cold front was exiting south of our area early this morning. Today will be cooler with forecast favoring latest guidance in the mid and upper 70s, and tonight also will be a bit cool mostly mid and upper 40s.
Another clear overnight is expected however with warmer air aloft in place. overnight lows will run around 5 degrees warmer on Tuesday morning. The synoptic weather pattern will be characterized by a broad longwave trough over the north-central USA, and a developing ridge along the Pacific Coast.
411 AM CDT Mon Oct 12 2020 Strong cold front was exiting south of our area early this morning. Today will be cooler with forecast favoring latest guidance in the mid and upper 70s, and tonight also will be a bit cool mostly mid and upper 40s.
741 AM EDT Mon Oct 12 2020 A fast moving cold front will move across the area today and bring gusty winds, showers, and possibly a few storms.
524 AM EDT Mon Oct 12 2020 A small anticyclone has formed over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico, in the wake of the lower pressure near the Carolinas which was formerly known as Delta. The Keys remain within a fractured ridge axis, featuring light and variable breezes and mostly clear skies.
FG and low stratus will linger through the early morning before FG and stratus lift in advance of an approaching cold front. A cold front will move across the region on Monday with a winds shift to the NW between 16-20z. Monday through Tuesday Night Currently quiet conditions are ongoing across the region in advance of an approaching cold front situated over the Mid-MS valley. This cold front will move across the forecast area with little more than a wind shift for most locations around mid-day Monday. After 14z, increasing winds ahead of the cold front should mix any remaining fog out and visibilities should improve. High pressure will settle into the region bringing quiet and sunny conditions beneath large scale subsidence aloft through the short term.
341 AM MDT Mon Oct 12 2020 Main upper trough axis has pushed east of the area, leaving behind clear skies and cooler temperatures in the 30s and 40s.
Gusty northwest winds behind a cold front may gust 20 to 30 kts during the first part of the day before subsiding this afternoon. VFR conditions will prevail thru the period as cooler and drier air filters into the region behind the front. /Issued 238 AM CDT Mon Oct 12 2020/ Winds are starting to increase behind the cold front across portions of Osage county with a 40 mile per hour gust being reported in Burbank.
310 AM PDT Mon Oct 12 2020 High pressure continues to build in over the area, which will lead to a warming and drying trend for the week.
High pressure will build in from the Ohio Valley for the middle of this week providing fair and mild weather.
06Z surface data has the cold front from eastern Minnesota south through central Iowa and into southeast Kansas. Dew points ahead of the cold front were in the upper 50s and 60s. Behind the cold front dew points were in the 30s and 40s. Convection is developing along the outflow boundary from the earlier storms with the cold front mysteriously quiet. Based on trends convection should continue to develop along the outflow boundary with additional storms developing on the cold front through sunrise. After sunrise the cold front will quickly finish moving through the area.
1046 AM EDT Mon Oct 12 2020 A cold front will approach from the west today and move through the area this evening. Cooler and drier air will then settle into the region for Tuesday behind the cold front. Cold front in western Illinois late this morning will push into the western part of the forecast area early this evening and then sweep across the area before midnight. Winds then quickly shift to southwesterly once again during the day on Tuesday as high pressure builds in from the south.
Highs in the low- mid 50s will be 5 to 10 degrees below average over the central and eastern half of the CWA. A cold front moving east from the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley will be accompanied by rain showers across the western mtns tonight. Early morning clouds Tuesday will break up from west to east during the later morning and early afternoon hours Tuesday as the cold front crosses the Alleghenies and a drying, llvl West- Northwesterly downslope flow develops. Surface ridging will build across the CWA Tuesday afternoon through Wed night, bringing fair weather. High temperatures Tuesday will be generally in the lower 60s across the higher terrain of the north and west, to the low 70s across the Lower Susq Valley.