Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
AN UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS IDAHO WILL IMPACT MUCH OF UTAH THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND RESULTING IN A WARMING AND DRYING TREND. THE UPSTREAM UPPER LEVEL LOW REMAINS CENTERED OVER IDAHO THIS EVENING. THE UPPER JET CONTINUES TO ROTATE AROUND THE BASE OF THE LOW. THE LOW WILL OPEN INTO A TROUGH AND GRAZE NORTHERN UTAH TOMORROW BEFORE EXITING THE AREA TOMORROW EVENING.
855 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015 HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED WELL OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH THURSDAY. WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE NEARLY STATIONARY EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS.
/ISSUED 234 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015/ THE HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES FOR THE ATLANTIC BEACHES. THE STEEP LAPSE RATES (ABOVE 6C/KM) ARE ASSOCIATED WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE MID LEVELS, AS THE AIR IS ROTATING AROUND THE MID LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AHEAD THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE MIDDLE SECTIONS OF THE COUNTRY. THIS HIGH PRESSURE IS EXTENDING OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC GENERATING A LONG FETCH OF EASTERLY WINDS IN THE ATLANTIC. THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST THIS WEEKEND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AS THE HIGH SHIFT A LITTLE BIT SOUTH. /ISSUED 939 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015/ HIGH PRESSURE KEEPING THE EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING.
BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRING IS ON THE LOW SIDE. WITH A MIXTURE OF LEFT OVER BOUNDARIES AND WEAK THETA-E RIDGING POOLING MOISTURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS SUPPORTING FOR ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT MID MORNING.
WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
We will see a transition back to a familiar pattern as a longwave upper trough moves into the Rockies and High Plains Thu/Thu night and sw flow aloft becomes reestablished over the area. The aforementioned upper level trough will weaken as it moves east through the Plains Fri/Sat. Through the night and into early Thursday will see winds pick back up from the south ahead of a deepening lee side trough over the Plains.
We will see a transition back to a familiar pattern as a longwave upper trough moves into the Rockies and High Plains Thu/Thu night and sw flow aloft becomes reestablished over the area. The aforementioned upper level trough will weaken as it moves east through the Plains Fri/Sat. Otherwise will continue the trend of keeping mainly VFR ceilings with vicinity thunderstorms through the remainder of the forecast period as we remain in the warm sector ahead of an advancing upper level trough and deepening surface front.
1001 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER NORTH CAROLINA FROM THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE JUST OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL ONCE AGAIN CONTINUE OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA FROM THE NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY.
921 PM PDT Wed May 27 2015 Gradually warmer temperatures through the end of the week.
SKIES RANGE FROM MOSTLY CLEAR IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE KEYS. A TENACIOUS WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE IS ANCHORED ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES AND DOWN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.
/ISSUED 345 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015/ WEAK RIDGING FOLLOWING LAST NIGHTS SHORT WAVE WAS KEEPING CONVECTION RATHER ISOLATED THIS AFTERNOON.
722 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015 A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TO THE EAST THIS EVENING.
A FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACH LATE WEEKEND. MODELS SHOW A VORTICITY MAX AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REACHING THE OH RIVER AROUND 00-06Z. THERE MAY BE A REPRIEVE POSSIBLY FRI AS THE UPPER RIDGE BRIEFLY FLEXES ITS MUSCLE BACK INTO THE REGION. THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS JUST OFF THE E COAST OVER THE WEEKEND. ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHLAND VALLEYS AND TOWARDS HTS WHERE RAIN MAY FALL OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.
1035 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015 AREA OF UPSTREAM CONVECTION WHICH DEVELOPED ALONG THE NRN EDGE OF THE INSTABILITY AXIS AND 850 MB THETA E RIDGE IS NOW MAKE SOME SOUTHEASTWARD PROGRESS ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN INTO OUR SW CWA. COLD FRONT ENTERING WESTERN SIDE OF LOWER MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON. WARMER WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF TO OUR NORTH WITH MOVE BY TO THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY ALLOWING FOR WARMER AIR TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION (HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S WITH A FEW AROUND 80 READINGS FAR SOUTH).
THE MAIN TROUGH SNEAKS TO THE EAST A TOUCH TOMORROW. LEAVING WEAK TROUGHING IN ITS PLACE AS A MESSY RIDGE BUILDS NORTHEASTWARD UP THE ATLANTIC COAST AND A LONGWAVE TROUGH RE-AMPLIFIES TO OUR WEST.
LOOKS LIKE MAJORITY OF PRECIP FROM UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NRN MS WILL AFFECT ONLY FAR SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN/SOUTHERN PLATEAU THIS EVENING AND INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE, SURFACE AND ALOFT, CENTERED OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST COASTAL AREA, WILL KEEP A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE.
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES FOR THE LOWER DESERTS SHOULD WARM TO BETWEEN 105 AND 108 DEGREES THIS WEEKEND. WITH TEMPERATURES AT THIS HOUR STILL IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS.
1141 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015 11 PM TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE CWA WERE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S AND SEEM ON TARGET FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO NEAR 60. 18Z SFC ANALYSIS HAS HIGH PRESSURE FROM MISSOURI INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH A WEAK FRONT/BOUNDARY FROM LOWER MICHIGAN INTO EASTERN MISSOURI. QUIET AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS WITH DIMINISHING WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE AREA. COOL BUT DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AS THE HIGH MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH THE LOW TO MID 80S PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF CLOUDS AND RAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
/ISSUED 350 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015/ WEAK RIDGING ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON KEEPING AFTERNOON ACTIVITY ACROSS THE AREA MINIMAL. HAVE OPTED TO HIGHLIGHT THAT TIME FRAME WITH THE HIGHEST POPS.
620 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015 19Z/2PM SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM DANVILLE TO NEAR SAINT LOUIS. A SLIGHTLY COOLER/DRIER AIRMASS WILL GRADUALLY TRICKLE IN FROM THE WEST.
814 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015 A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TO THE EAST THIS EVENING.
951 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015 A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY.
750 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015 HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT WILL REMAIN ANCHORED JUST OFF THE EAST COAST THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK.
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 66 82 66 85 / 50 50 20 50 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 65 81 65 83 / 20 30 20 30 OAK RIDGE, TN 64 81 64 83 / 30 40 20 30 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 62 82 63 82 / 10 30 30 30.
530 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2015 AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWED A FAIRLY AMPLIFIED LARGE SCALE FLOW ACROSS THE LOWER 48. ONE TROUGH WAS PROGRESS EAST OF THE MS RIVER VALLEY.
1058 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015 HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT WILL REMAIN ANCHORED JUST OFF THE EAST COAST THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK.
939 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015 HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED WELL OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH THURSDAY. WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE NEARLY STATIONARY EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS.
SAFFORD AND THE LOWER DESERTS. RIDGING WILL BUILD IN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH INCREASING HEIGHT AND THICKNESS VALUES.
759 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015 LIGHT WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. HIGHS WILL RECOVER INTO THE LOWER 80S ON THURSDAY. RECOVERING INTO THE LOWER 80S. EXCEPT COOLER NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN.
1152 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015 WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS A DEPARTING MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WHILE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WAS BUILDING IN FROM THE PLAINS. TO THE LOWER/MIDDLE 70S ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER SCENE LATER TONIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF THURSDAY FOR A BRIEF RESPITE FROM THE WET WEATHER PATTERN. LOOKS LIKE ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD HOLD OFF TO THE WEST AND NORTH OF THE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS. LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT/LIFT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT PUSHING OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO MN.
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MODELS ARE HINTING AT A WEAK LEE SIDE TROUGH DEVELOPING THURSDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WESTERN PIEDMONT.
757 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015 A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE, SURFACE AND ALOFT, CENTERED OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST COASTAL AREA, WILL KEEP A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE.
19Z/2PM SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM DANVILLE TO NEAR SAINT LOUIS. A SLIGHTLY COOLER/DRIER AIRMASS WILL GRADUALLY TRICKLE IN FROM THE WEST.
1023 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015 HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT WILL REMAIN ANCHORED JUST OFF THE EAST COAST THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK.
732 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER NORTH CAROLINA FROM THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE JUST OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL ONCE AGAIN CONTINUE OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA FROM THE NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY.
656 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015 WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS A DEPARTING MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WHILE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WAS BUILDING IN FROM THE PLAINS. TO THE LOWER/MIDDLE 70S ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER SCENE LATER TONIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF THURSDAY FOR A BRIEF RESPITE FROM THE WET WEATHER PATTERN. LOOKS LIKE ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD HOLD OFF TO THE WEST AND NORTH OF THE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS. LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT/LIFT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT PUSHING OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO MN.
355 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION TODAY.
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION LATER TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID AIR WILL BE TRANSPORTED NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA TODAY IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT OVER THE GREAT LAKES. BUT A BIT COOLER AT THE COAST IN ONSHORE FLOW. THEN THE SECOND ROUND ARRIVES AFTER MIDNIGHT AHEAD OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WITH INCREASING POPS THROUGH DAWN. THE FORECAST LOOKS DRY UNTIL NEXT S/WV TROF ARRIVES OVER THE WEEKEND. CONDS GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR THROUGHOUT BY 16Z WED IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. WITH MINIMAL SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY OUTSIDE THE BAYS TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE TO OUR EAST WILL MIGRATE WESTWARD AS A TUTT MOVES WESTWARD TOWARD THE BAHAMAS. THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO MOVE WESTWARD OVER THE SOUTHEAST AS THE TUTT MOVES THROUGH THE BAHAMAS.
THE RIDGE WILL PERSIST ACROSS FLORIDA THROUGH THE WEEK. A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL BE REPLACED BY A LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY. A HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL BUILD EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. BRINGING COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER TO THE REGION. LOTS OF LOW CLOUDS NOW STREAMING UP THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND BERKSHIRES WILL LIKELY OVERSPREAD THE REGION BY MORNING.
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH TRACKING ACROSS CANADA WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA STEERING SEVERAL EMBEDDED SMALL WEATHER SYSTEMS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL MONTANA. ENERGY WITH THIS TROUGH WILL SLOWLY WORK IT WAY EASTWARD. THE COOLER AIR FROM CANADA WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
414 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND CROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.
BUT THE FLOW ABOUT THE BROAD RIDGE IS NOT STRONG AT ALL. THE PENINSULA REMAINS A LITTLE WEST OF THE NARROW UPPER RIDGE BETWEEN TWO TUTT LOWS. A MID LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE NERN GOMEX INTO THE SERN CONUS.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES AT TLH AND VLD THIS AFTERNOON. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE IN THE 30-50% RANGE WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES IN THE BIG BEND.
344 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015 THE SHORT TERM PERIODS WILL BE QUIET WEATHER WISE IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS ALOFT WHILE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN AT THE SURFACE.
401 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND AN INLAND TROUGH WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEK. UPPER HEIGHTS RISE AS MID-LEVEL RIDGING DOMINATES THE AREA WITH A LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW AT THE SURFACE. CONVECTION WILL BE LIMITED TO THE NORMAL DIURNAL REGIME AND HAVE KEPT POPS LOW WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 90S IN MOST AREAS.
401 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE TODAY INTO THE FIRST PART OF TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY.
514 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015 THE SHORT TERM PERIODS WILL BE QUIET WEATHER WISE IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS ALOFT WHILE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN AT THE SURFACE.
147 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015 AVIATION SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THE RAIN WILL COME TO AN END TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT SLIPS OFF TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. DRY WEATHER IS ON TAP FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE TAKES CONTROL. COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS NORTH WINDS WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE 70S.
655 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION TODAY.
633 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015 SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY A STRONG COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S NEAR LAKE HOWEVER IT WILL BE TURNING COOLER OVER THE ENTIRE AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER TONIGHT OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS THE COLD FRONT STALLS OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF INDIANA AND OHIO. LOWS TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 50S NORTHWEST TO THE LOWER 60S SOUTHEAST.
318 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015 07Z/2AM SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN SOUTHWESTWARD TO OKLAHOMA. SEVERAL WEAK WAVES OF LOW LOW PRESSURE ARE NOTED ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THE COLD FRONT WILL GET PULLED TOWARD THE I-57 CORRIDOR AND PRECIP CHANCES WILL WANE ACROSS THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE GREAT LAKES WILL PROVIDE COOLER/DRIER WEATHER WITH LOW TEMPERATURES DIPPING INTO THE 50S. WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS STILL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE TRAILING END OF THE FRONT OVER NORTHERN TEXAS LATE TUESDAY. AS THE LOW APPROACHES. ONCE THE LOW LIFTS INTO NORTHERN INDIANA.
300 AM PDT TUE JUL 7 2015 A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY OFF THE WEST COAST WILL SLOWLY MOVE TOWARD THE AREA.
338 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015 SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY A STRONG COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S NEAR LAKE HOWEVER IT WILL BE TURNING COOLER OVER THE ENTIRE AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER TONIGHT OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS THE COLD FRONT STALLS OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF INDIANA AND OHIO. LOWS TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 50S NORTHWEST TO THE LOWER 60S SOUTHEAST.
AN UPPER LOW OFF THE COAST WILL MOVE INLAND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
MUCH OF THE LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE TUESDAY MORNING.
Near term models suggest convection and rainfall rates will increase during the predawn hours as the front makes its way into southern Missouri and interacts with the low level jet. An upper level flat ridge is currently situated over the southern states with a short wave trough over the Appalachians. At the surface, a cold front extended from northern Missouri through south central Kansas into the Texas panhandle. The cold front will make its way southeastward this evening with the front situated along the I-44 corridor by 12z on Tuesday.
405 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015 A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA/GREAT LAKES REGION WAS NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SWWRD FROM THIS LOW INTO SW TEXAS. NAM/GFS/ECMWF GUIDANCE ARE ALL IN FAIR AGREEMENT IN DEVELOPING MULTIPLE WAVES ALONG THE COLD FRONT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WHILE PROGRESSING THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY EASTWARD. BUT WITH THE ADVERTISED HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BEGINNING TO BUILD WESTWARD TODAY THESE STORMS WILL BE SHUNTED NORTHWARD AND MOST ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN IN TENNESSEE. THE HIGH PRESSURE/UPPER RIDGE BECOMES ANCHORED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES LATER THIS WEEK AND WILL RESULT IN HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS.
A GENERAL DRYING TREND WAS ON THE WAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHED THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST RESULTING IN A SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER ARIZONA.
106 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015 ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL WITH AN INLAND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LINGERING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S MOST LOCALES. A REMNANT UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL WEAKEN ACROSS THE SC MIDLANDS AND A BROAD UPPER RIDGE WILL REBUILD. IN THE LOWER LEVELS A STEADY SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE. SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S AND TEMPS IN THE LOWER 90S WILL YIELD 1500-2000 J/KG CAPES.
150 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST TUESDAY NIGHT AND CROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.
A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH ALSO SETS UP OVER SE MT. A COOLER PUSH OF AIR WILL DRIVE S THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT KEEPING LOW CHANCES FOR CONVECTION ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA OVERNIGHT. MIXING TO 700 MB WILL MAKE FOR A MARGINALLY COOLER DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.
303 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015 A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO KEEP SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE FORECAST AS IT ADVANCES ACROSS THE REGION LATER TODAY.
WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL WILL IMPACT CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO THROUGH TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
RAIN CHANCES WILL BE IN THE 30-50% RANGE WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES IN THE BIG BEND.
237 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015 TOPIC OF INTEREST THIS MORNING IS CANADIAN WILDFIRE SMOKE THAT HAS INUNDATED MOST OF SRN IA/SERN NEB/ERN KS BEHIND A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE SRN GREAT LAKES TO CNTRL OK.
AN UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WILL LIFT AWAY FROM THE REGION TODAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. THIS BAND OF CONVECTION OCCURRING ALONG A WEAK 850-700MB TROUGH WITH SOME ADDITIONAL SUPPORT ALOFT FROM A VORT AXIS LIFTING N-NE ACROSS WESTERN NC. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE ON TUESDAY SHOULD AGAIN BE LIMITED AS THE UPPER TROUGH LIFTS NORTH SOMEWHAT AND THE AIR MASS DRIES OUT WITH PW VALUES DROPPING 0.
536 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND AN INLAND TROUGH WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEK.
326 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015 SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE SOUTH FLORIDA.
EXPECT THE LOW STRATUS. WHILE THE TROUGH OVER UTAH MOVES INTO WESTERN COLORADO LATE TONIGHT.
SHOWERS OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THIS EARLY MORNING. THIS WILL BE SPONSORED BY A BIT OF LIFT SUPPLIED BY A WEAK UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN THAT WILL BE SLOWLY EDGING EAST TODAY AND TONIGHT. ALSO WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS ON THE PLAINS THERE WILL BE A DENVER CYCLONE.
522 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015 A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO KEEP SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE FORECAST AS IT ADVANCES ACROSS THE REGION LATER TODAY.
THE MODELS ALL SHOW A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH ALOFT DROPPING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN IN THE LONG RANGE WILL BEGIN WITH A CLOSED LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST U. AND WEAK UPPER RIDGING OVER SOUTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL U. THE LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST WILL GRADUALLY TRACK NEWD INTO THE CENTRAL AND NRN PLAINS BY LATE IN THE WEEK. AS STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGING RE-DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN STATES.
334 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015 AREAS OF SHOWERS FOCUSING ALONG THE ELEVATED COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTHWARD OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS ITS PARENT TROUGH PUSHES EAST SOUTHEAST, ALLOWING PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO GRADUALLY TAPER OFF DURING THE MORNING - EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. QUIET AND COOLER THAN AVERAGE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THIS AREA OF SHOWERS AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO DRIFT INTO THE REGION, LIMITING HIGH TEMPERATURES TO THE LOW TO MID 70S AND SUSTAINING COOL NORTHEAST WINDS THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS. DRIER AIR WILL ALSO MAKE THIS AFTERNOON NOTICEABLY COOLER, IN ADDITION TO VERY FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AS A SECOND SYSTEM BEGINS LIFTING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
502 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015 AT 4 THIS MORNING TEMPERATURES WERE STILL IN THE LOWER 80S AT THE COAST AND UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 INLAND WITH A LITTLE STRONGER SOUTHERLY WINDS THAN YDAY. THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE GULF LIFTS NORTH AND STRENGTHENS WEDNESDAY THEN EXPANDS BACK TO THE WEST BLANKETING MS/LA/TX BY FRI.
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL BUILD ACROSS NEBRASKA AND WESTERN KANSAS TODAY AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR NEAR THE SURFACE FILTERS IN FROM THE NORTH. BASED ON THIS SLOW CLEARING TREND IN THE NORTH IN THE AFTERNOON ALONG WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES AT 00Z WEDNESDAY WILL STAY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER HIGHS TODAY BEING ACROSS WESTERN CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
233 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND BEGIN TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT TO SEE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN CLOUDS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY PUSHING THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE STRETCHED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WITH WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE TRAVELING ALONG IT.
154 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015 UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA WILL EXIT TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY THEN STALL ACROSS SOUTHERN OHIO TUESDAY NIGHT.
122 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015 UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN STALLS ACROSS THE REGION. A COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO APPROACH THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
A cold front, currently draped across northern portions of the region, has resulted in gusty north winds at SE NM terminals. /ISSUED 201 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015/ Upper ridge centered over S TX this morning will shift westward across Mexico. A broad upper ridge will remain across the southern tier of states Tuesday as an upper low moves ashore the West Coast. This low will slowly wobble eastward before lifting northward. A weak cold front should move down into the area tonight and slowly sag southward. Some rain may linger into Wednesday but then after that pops should be on the decrease and mainly confined to the higher elevations. Tuesday should be cooler with the weak front. but it could turn out much cooler if it stays rainy/cloudy all day.
AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE EAST. WITH ANY WEAK EASTERLY WAVES THAT MAY UNDERCUT THE UPPER RIDGE. HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S CAN BE EXPECTED AREAWIDE. WITH SOME TEMPS CREEPING UPWARDS INTO THE UPPER 90S TOWARDS THE WKND AS UPPER RIDGE OVHD.
AN AREA OF HI PRES IS FCST TO BUILD INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON TUE AND BRING COOLER/LESS HUMID AIR TO NE WI.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY OFF THE WEST COAST WILL SLOWLY MOVE TOWARD THE AREA.