Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
825 AM EST Fri Jan 31 2020 High pressure will move east of the region today.
335 AM CST Fri Jan 31 2020 A cold front is now moving equatorward across the county warning area (CWA), and is accompanied by brief sprinkles and north winds at around 10-20 mph. After the front crosses through the CWA, cooler and drier conditions will set in for Friday with high temperatures climbing into the middle 50s area-wide despite the northerly winds. Surface winds will veer overnight Friday as the upper-level trough pivots across the south-central Great Plains and exits the region to the east. A ridge axis will then build into the region, and with the west winds on Saturday, compressional warming will make for a pleasant day as temperatures build into the upper 60s on the Caprock and lower 70s in the Rolling Plains.
A break in the clouds is seen upstream from the Nature Coast up towards Jacksonville, however this reprieve will be short lived as additional low to mid level clouds build in ahead of an approaching low pressure system. Dropped afternoon temperatures a bit because of this, but still expecting most areas along and north of I-4 to get into the low 70s, and mid to upper 70s south. Rain chances increase late this afternoon as a cold front approaches with isolated showers possible by early evening. Tonight as a cold front approaches the highest chance will be around 70 percent from Vero Beach south, and 50-60 percent from Melbourne north.
/Today through Tomorrow Night/ The current longwave trough that has plagued the Four-States region with a relentless low-level cloud deck, rain and drizzle, and below average temperatures is finally on its way out the door. Expect temperatures to be below average, with afternoon highs being in the low to mid 50s. Overnight lows (aided by a north-northwest wind) will range from the upper 30s in our southern zones, to the lower 30s in the northern ones.
441 AM EST Fri Jan 31 2020 An upper level trough will bring occasional snow and rain tonight and early Sat. The influence of an upper level trough and the right entrance region of a relatively weak jet streak will bring occasional light precipitation (rain/snow) to the Alleghenies late this afternoon/early evening into the night. Due to the light QPF and initially mild(er than freezing), no accums are expected before sunset. Again, no real accumulations, just an inch or so on the higher terrain. Overall, precipitation will be on the light side with minor accumulations near an inch possible in the higher elevations, while downsloping subsidence results in progressively lower POPs east of the mountains.
441 AM MST Fri Jan 31 2020 Deep northerly flow is in place behind a trough moving into the central CONUS and ridging strengthens upstream over the Pacific Coast. Meanwhile there is a deep low pressure system over Alaska. The flow between this system and the ridge to the south will direct strong atmospheric river conditions to the PacNW. Snow cover also continues to plague the lower Green and Colorado River Valleys. Dry and warmer conditions continue through the weekend as a strong jet breaks the system away from the high latitudes and pushes the mid latitude ridge inland.
Light winds and warmer temperatures can be expected through Saturday over most of the region, though north breezes will linger along the Colorado River Valley from Lake Mohave to Lake Havasu.
/Today through Tonight/ Confidence: Medium to High Weak low continues to drop south and east today across the region with light snow mixed occasionally with light freezing drizzle. As the low moves east the area mostly impacted should be the northeast and east this afternoon prior to the area of precipitation moving out. Milder air is arriving with the system and highs today will warm into the lower 30s which will likely result in some melting as the snow falls. The clouds will hold overnight lows in the lower 20s northwest to the upper 20s in the southeast. With warmer air already moving in to the Northern Plains as a warm front develops across the region, clouds and some fog are likely to hold on into Saturday morning prior to some sunshine returning in the afternoon hours.
Areas where the skies were clear are seeing much colder temperatures due to enhanced radiational cooling, with 3 am temperatures in the upper 20s to low 30s, and also some patchy dense freezing fog. Expect fog/freezing fog to possibly increase in coverage through sunrise before clearing out around mid morning. Some rain may occur with this trough, but it will likely stay just west of our forecast area of responsibility. However, there will likely be some mid and high level clouds associated with this trough that will bring partly cloudy skies to our region today. Despite the weak cold front, there will be more sunshine today so we should see warmer conditions than yesterday, with highs in the mid 50s. Thus, am expecting lows tonight in the low 30s.
The front exits FL Sat with high pressure building in Sun and producing robust winds in the caution to advisory range.
Have expanded the current dense fog advisory in both time and space to cover the lowest visibility areas. This has been in response to an upper level low bringing weak positive vorticity advection, with some small pockets of weak elevated instability leading to its showery nature. Most areas will stay under an inch of snow, but areas along the Buffalo Ridge in SW MN may see up to an inch or two. After this cloudy and dreary pattern, all eyes are on the weekend promising some sunshine and warmer temperatures. A strong upper level ridge builds overhead as the aforementioned upper wave moves out of our area, allowing for some warmer air to be brought in and partly cloudy skies.
Skies continue to clear out at this hour as high pressure builds into the Coastal Bend.
1048 AM MST Fri Jan 31 2020 Deep northerly flow is in place behind a trough moving into the central CONUS and ridging strengthens upstream over the Pacific Coast. Meanwhile there is a deep low pressure system over Alaska. The flow between this system and the ridge to the south will direct strong atmospheric river conditions to the PacNW. Snow cover also continues to plague the lower Green and Colorado River Valleys. Dry and warmer conditions continue through the weekend as a strong jet breaks the system away from the high latitudes and pushes the mid latitude ridge inland.
1028 AM MST Fri Jan 31 2020 Western CONUS ridge will shift east the next two days, with much warmer and dry conds expected. Upper level ridging ongoing, with height rise spill over cirrus increasing over the region. Sat will see even warmer temps as the thermal ridge will time over the area.
246 PM EST Fri Jan 31 2020 Upper trofiness persists across the central CONUS, with multiple weak disturbances yet to swing through the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley tonight and Saturday. This unsettled wx will continue tonight and most of Saturday, until the trof axis slips to our east.
The passage of a strong cold front on Saturday will produce strong gusty winds across the Columbia Basin, Palouse, and West Plains.
240 PM CST Fri Jan 31 2020 Upper level low with attendant bits of energy shifting slowly east/southeast across the area this evening, and will continue to spark areas of light pcpn. Mostly snow expected, but there will be some loss of ice in cloud (per RAP bufkit soundings) that point to freezing drizzle. Amounts of snow and/or icing (if freezing drizzle is realized) will be minimal. Mild weekend for the region as upper level ridge builds in.
Initial glance at some of the 12Z guidance does point to a lower threat for freezing rain/drizzle with the upper level disturbance moving across the area this evening and tonight. Guidance indicates surface temps may stay above freezing overnight and with a near surface warm layer, temps may be warm enough for primarily rain, if not a rain/snow mix. As a result, the potential exists for light freezing drizzle or a mix of freezing drizzle/snow. Overnight lows will be in the lower to middle 30s.
Meanwhile, a positive tilt upper trough will slowly progress eastward through Saturday. Skies will begin to clear from west to east late Saturday afternoon into Saturday night as the trough progresses eastward and a drier airmass moves into the area. Lows tonight will be in the low to mid 40s inland to upper 40s along the coast.
Patchy light drizzle is possible through at least 02/06Z as the main upper level trough swings through the region overnight.
The upper level ridge that has been centered southwest of California across the Pacific will flatten out into Saturday.
1226 PM EST Fri Jan 31 2020 A weak low pressure system will bring some snow showers tonight, followed by additional weak systems bringing some rain and snow showers through the weekend.
High pressure building in today and tomorrow will warm temperatures well above normal.
149 PM CST Fri Jan 31 2020 An upper trough moving across the region today will slowly swing out of TX tonight.
Temperatures were updated as well to bring down highs in the northwest as light showers continue to linger and current temperatures are only in the lower 40s.
249 PM CST Fri Jan 31 2020 The cold front came through this morning and has left us with abundant sunshine and northerly winds. These areas will remain cooler tomorrow compared to the rest of the area as highs will top out in the mid to upper 60s with lower 60s in the snowy parts. Lee side troughing will develop tomorrow and bring southwest surface winds to the Panhandles which is where the warmer air will be coming in from since the upper levels will still be pumping northerly flow across.
High temperatures today will struggle to make it above the low 50s, and may remain in the upper 40s in NE AL. But kept a slight chance of -SHRA as the next trough axis approaches late tonight into Saturday morning. the associated cold front will pass through from west to east Saturday morning ending the chance of rainfall.
There is also a low chance for freezing drizzle early Saturday morning but temperatures will climb above freezing shortly after sunrise.
Dry and Warmer. Then, lots of sunshine on Saturday will help produce afternoon highs some 10 degrees warmer than usual early February highs.
347 PM EST Fri Jan 31 2020 With the CONUS stuck in this prolonged split-flow pattern, Upper Michigan is under an elongated, positively-tilted upper-level trough. This trough stretches from James Bay through the Texas Panhandle as pockets of vorticity remain embedded within the trough that are helping kick off some -shsn across the UP, MN, and IA this morning. Tonight, the aforementioned trof is progged to move east as a building ridge across the western CONUS facilitates its departure.
A cold front is now moving equatorward across the county warning area (CWA), and is accompanied by brief sprinkles and north winds at around 10-20 mph. After the front crosses through the CWA, cooler and drier conditions will set in for Friday with high temperatures climbing into the middle 50s area- wide despite the northerly winds. Surface winds will veer overnight Friday as the upper-level trough pivots across the south-central Great Plains and exits the region to the east. A ridge axis will then build into the region, and with the west winds on Saturday, compressional warming will make for a pleasant day as temperatures build into the upper 60s on the Caprock and lower 70s in the Rolling Plains.
Post-cold front regime this morning with leftover stratus on the Nebraska side. I would have gone warmer with lows tonight if it were not for the fact that light winds and clearing skies will be around for the evening. Warming takes place over the weekend as broad ridging takes place.
147 PM MST Fri Jan 31 2020 20z surface analysis had increasing south to west flow across the CWA as warm front organizes from central MT into eastern WY. Upper ridge building into the northern plains with chunky ac/ci shield pushing east. Tonight/Saturday, upper/thermal ridge peaks over the CWA with increasing low level southwest/west flow as a result of warm front/pressure falls shifting into the eastern Dakotas. The usually gusty southwest winds over northeast WY overnight will translate over most of the CWA Saturday as they turn westerly behind the warm front.
Temperatures are currently in the 40s and are not expected to rise as much this afternoon due lack of clearing and an approaching upper trough. Therefore, lowered high temperatures and included the mention of light patchy drizzle this afternoon through midnight as the main upper trough passes across the region tonight. GOES-16 Water Vapor Satellite trends indicate a longwave upper level trough extending from Manitoba south through portions of the Central and Southern Plains. As of 3 AM CST, temperatures across the Mid-South range from the upper 30s north to the lower/middle 40s south. Short term models indicate the aforementioned longwave trough will gradually shift east across the Middle and Lower Mississippi Valleys by Saturday.
MVFR and low VFR cigs across the Coastal Bend will thin out through the afternoon as high pressure builds into the region. Mostly cloudy skies for much of the day and northerly winds will keep rather cool conditions today with highs expected to range in the lower 60s. As drier air continues to filter in tonight, clearing skies and light winds will lead to lows in the lower 40s, to even upper 30s for northern inland locations. Saturday will be rather pleasant as high pressure settles over the region, with mostly clear skies and light northwesterly winds. Temperatures for Saturday should warm up into the low to mid 70s.
250 PM CST Fri Jan 31 2020 Water vapor imagery shows an elongated positively tilted trough moving through the middle of the country.
Initially had upgraded previous High Wind Watches to Warnings with an updated time of 4 AM but given the recent observation by the WYDOT sensor along I-80 at Halleck Ridge measuring a 58 mph gusts, elected to just move the start time up to accommodate observation. Models remain fairly consistent in the 00z run as a deep mid layer trough moves across the Great Plains with a stacked pressure gradient and swath of positive vorticity moving across the region this morning.
KTRI recently reported some -SHRA but think all terminals will remain free of RA/SHRA until after 12z or so, with a roughly 6hr period afterwards where some occasional showers could occur as the upper trough axis finally moves through. CD Chattanooga Airport, TN 39 51 36 58 40 / 20 20 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 39 48 36 54 40 / 30 30 10 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 40 48 35 56 39 / 30 30 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 36 46 33 51 39 / 30 30 10 0 0.
Have been seeing some eroding of the low clouds ovr part of central AR, with spotty VFR conds expected this aftn. Low lvl moisture wl start to dcrs fm the W late in the PD as sfc trof moves acrs AR and drier W winds incrs. Clouds will dissipate on Saturday as high pressure builds to the south of the region. Clockwise flow around the high will bring a west wind and warmer conditions.
Best thinking is that most of the stronger winds will be confined to the higher elevation areas, but if a stray, unexpected rain showers moves through the area, High Winds could also reach down to the surface. A warm front will lift through the area tonight with very mild temperatures expected on Saturday. As temperatures soar ahead of an approaching cold front, relative humidity values will drop to between 15 and 25 percent for southwest portions of the CWA. Therefore, the High Wind Watch has been replaced with a High Wind Warning on Saturday.
1204 PM EST Fri Jan 31 2020 An upper level trough passing overhead will bring spotty light snow and rain this evening into early Saturday, mainly across the Western Mountains of PA. Temperatures will remain above average and trend even warmer into the first week of February. Again, no real accumulations, perhaps just an inch or so on the highest terrain. Overall, precipitation will be on the light side with minor accumulations near an inch possible in the higher elevations, while downsloping subsidence results in progressively lower POPs east of the mountains.
1148 AM CST Fri Jan 31 2020 Early morning water vapor imagery depicts an upper trough over the central portions of the CONUS with one wave exiting eastern Kansas with another wave deepening over the central Dakotas. A modified cold front was moving east across western portions of Kansas with modest low-level winds and modest dewpoint depressions ahead of it. Isolated high-based precipitation ahead of the mean trough was generally weakening in recent hours with otherwise mainly clear skies over much of the state. Low-level warm air advection pattern takes hold for much of the weekend as a broad upper ridge builds into the Plains with highs rising 10 to 15 degrees each day.
330 PM CST Fri Jan 31 2020 A low pressure system in central Iowa at 21Z will continue to move southeast, dragging a weak surface front through the CWA overnight. Aided by a PV anomaly aloft, the weak cold front will be the focus for light precipitation this evening into tomorrow morning as it traverses the bi-state region. Thanks to the thick stratus deck that has clung to the mid Mississippi River Valley temperatures will be above freezing when precipitation is falling. In the wake of the weak cold front, dry air will start to erode the seemingly endless moisture that has plagued the region over the last week.
Vertical profile is cold enough to allow for a light wintry mix over the highest elevations, generally at or above 3500 feet. Late tonight into Saturday morning, the low levels will moisten up a bit as the Mid America upper trough pushes further east toward the Great Valley. Tried to break out of the lower ceilings behind the upper feature at cha and tys during the afternoon as a slightly drier westerly flow strengthens. Chattanooga Airport, TN 39 51 36 61 39 / 20 30 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 39 48 36 57 39 / 20 30 10 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 39 48 35 58 39 / 30 50 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 32 46 33 55 36 / 20 50 10 0 0.
551 PM CST Fri Jan 31 2020 Upper level low with attendant bits of energy shifting slowly east/southeast across the area this evening, and will continue to spark areas of light pcpn. Mostly snow expected, but there will be some loss of ice in cloud (per RAP bufkit soundings) that point to freezing drizzle. Amounts of snow and/or icing (if freezing drizzle is realized) will be minimal. Mild weekend for the region as upper level ridge builds in.
Warmer temperatures are still expected to move in, but there is deep snow across the FA. So it may be possible to mix down the warmer air and make a run at 40 degrees.
Conditions will steadily go downhill through this evening into tonight as moisture and lift increase out ahead of a developing low pressure system in the Gulf of Mexico. Additional convection could develop along the trailing cold front, which is forecast to push through Saturday afternoon and evening. Cloudy skies keep temps in the mid to upper 60s from Orlando to Titusville north, and in the low 70s from Vero Beach south. Approaching low pressure system will bring high coverage of showers beginning this evening and continuing through most of the valid TAF period, especially in the VRB-SUA corridor where a few storms are also possible.
816 PM CST Fri Jan 31 2020 An upper trough will move into the Mid-South overnight. Patchy light drizzle is possible through at least 02/06Z as the main upper level trough swings through the region overnight followed by some patchy fog through 12Z.
Trended more toward freezing drizzle than snow for the second half of tonight into early Saturday.
A weak trough will move across the region late this evening and through the overnight period. This will help push the cloud cover eastward and bring in drier and cooler temperatures, allowing overnight lows tonight to fall into the 30s areawide with near freezing temperatures north of Interstate 30 in Northeast Texas and adjacent SE Oklahoma and SW Arkansas. Can't rule out a stray shower or two north of Interstate 20 as the trough passes through, but confidence is too low to include at this time as there is lots of dry air between 500 to 850 mb. Drier conditions with mostly sunny skies expected as upper level ridging builds into the region. Southwest winds will return by Saturday evening, but upper level ridging will remain over the region.
352 PM MST Fri Jan 31 2020 20z surface analysis had increasing south to west flow across the CWA as warm front organizes from central MT into eastern WY. Upper ridge building into the northern plains with chunky ac/ci shield pushing east. Tonight/Saturday, upper/thermal ridge peaks over the CWA with increasing low level southwest/west flow as a result of warm front/pressure falls shifting into the eastern Dakotas. The usually gusty southwest winds over northeast WY overnight will translate over most of the CWA Saturday as they turn westerly behind the warm front.
425 PM MST Fri Jan 31 2020 Afternoon WV/IR imagery showed a stout upper ridge from the southwestern Canadian provinces into the Eastern Pacific. A upper trough extended from the Upper Midwest to the Southern Great Plains. The lull in strong winds will be short-lived as the low level gradients increase once again beginning later this evening and continuing through Saturday afternoon.
537 PM CST Fri Jan 31 2020 Water vapor imagery shows an elongated positively tilted trough moving through the middle of the country.
SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday night): A 500mb trough continues to move across the Central and Southern United States. Models are not impressed on rainfall potential tonight, and the disturbance looks to open and become absorbed by the main trough. On Saturday, much drier air moves in as a 500mb ridge builds over the region.
However, later tonight drier air will finally push into the low and mid levels, scouring out the low stratus. High clouds from the Plains will increase about the same time the lower level dry air arrives, so unfortunately the mostly cloudy skies are expected to continue through the short term.
245 PM PST Fri Jan 31 2020 An Eastern Pacific ridge of high pressure will continue to provide dry conditions and above normal temperatures through Saturday.
332 PM CST Fri Jan 31 2020 Weak cold front currently passing through the fcst area will act to usher away the recent persistent cloudiness.
450 PM MST Fri Jan 31 2020 High clouds moving through the ridge to the west has limited sunshine across the region which has hindered warming during the day. The ridge to the west flattens on Saturday as a mid-level trough moves along the northern border of the U. Increased solar insolation is likely to bring warmer temperatures and going forecast seemed to be on track. Conversely, overnight lows could be a bit cooler as there will few clouds to limit the escape of terrestrial long wave radiation.
Snow will continue in the mountains on Saturday, while valleys remain mostly dry leading up to the cold front Saturday night.
Upper trofiness persists across the central CONUS, with multiple weak disturbances yet to swing through the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley tonight and Saturday. This unsettled wx will continue tonight and most of Saturday, until the trof axis slips to our east.
Large scale pattern in the mid levels still features a trough from central Canada back into the western US, and a ridge over the Gulf Coast area. The overall pattern will remain somewhat in place through the short term, except for a retrogression of the ridge back toward TX. The model trend though is for the strongest storms to stay farther to the west, with the low level jet remaining in western or central parts of NE. Uncertainty increases for the afternoon as a slightly cooler airmass tries to build into at least the northern part of the forecast area as a weak front tries to push south. This boundary could be the focus for heavy rain Friday night as the low level jet increases.