Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
/issued 429 AM CST Thu Nov 30 2017/ Current observations show a cold front moving through West Texas and has almost reached the Permian Basin. However this cold front will become stationary near the Pecos River later today, and any front this time of year that fails to progress any farther than that is weak and in fact we will see higher temps today than we saw yesterday. An upper low currently off the southern coast of California will move east in this zonal flow along the U.
227 PM CST Thu Nov 30 2017 20Z water vapor imagery shows a weak confluent flow aloft with an upper low off the Baja of California and the stronger westerlies moving onshore over the Pacific Northwest. At the surface, high pressure with dry air was centered over central KS.
1146 AM CST Thu Nov 30 2017 Some cirrus clouds still linger in the southeast behind a cold front that moved through the region last night. Northwesterly winds dominate today and temperatures are on track to climb into the low 50s. with afternoon highs in the lower to middle 50s.
347 PM EST Thu Nov 30 2017 A weak cold front will approach the region from the west tonight move and will cross the region Friday morning with mostly light snow for the north and west and mostly light rain south and east. High pressure from the southwest returns to the region by Friday night and continues through the weekend. A weak s/wv trof alf apchg from the great lks tngt will cross the Rgn on Fri. A cold frontal band of lgt precip will cross the Rgn mainly late tngt into erly Fri morn ahead of a weak sfc cold front.
A weakening weather disturbance will shift across north central Idaho and western Montana tonight producing areas of very light rain in the lower valleys of Idaho and areas of light snow elsewhere. Weak high pressure will return Friday with generally dry conditions returning to the northern Rockies.
1056 AM CST Thu Nov 30 2017 Some cirrus clouds still linger in the southeast behind a cold front that moved through the region last night. Northwesterly winds dominate today and temperatures are on track to climb into the low 50s. with afternoon highs in the lower to middle 50s.
250 PM EST Thu Nov 30 2017 A moisture-starved dry cold front will approach from the the west today and will move through the region overnight. High pressure will build in behind the front and will dominate through the weekend. As suspected, models have trended drier and drier with the moisture- starved cold frontal passage this evening and overnight, choked off by an overwhelming westerly downslope component east of the mountains. The approach of the cold front into the southern Appalachians will result in increasing Cloud cover will increase from to east during the evening hours. In the wake of the exiting cold front Friday morning, high pressure will gradually build into the area from the NNE Friday and Friday night.
Current temperatures are running anywhere from 6 to 10 degrees behind yesterday at this time, and wind speeds in the high country are certainly much lighter. That will change later today with westerly wind gusts in the 30-45 mph range returning to the peaks and high ridgelines above timberline. Drier and somewhat warmer air aloft moving over Colorado today while southerly flow redevelops across the plains. This will allow most of the plains to get warmer than yesterday, while areas near the foothills that were so warm yesterday should be a little cooler. Southerly flow should develop a Denver cyclone this morning with lighter northerly winds near the foothills, which will also hold back temperatures there just a little.
124 PM EST Thu Nov 30 2017 A weak cold front will move into the area tonight.
Weak upper level ridging will be in place across the Gulf and Florida at the start of the period with a fast zonal flow aloft noted across the remainder of the Conus. During mid to late in the week models continue to indicate a change in the pattern across the Conus with models depicting a large upper level trough developing over the eastern U. with an attendant cold front approaching from the west.
1234 PM EST Thu Nov 30 2017 A cold front will bring showers to the area this afternoon and evening.
333 PM CST Thu Nov 30 2017 At 3 PM, a 1026 mb high pressure area was centered over Kansas. This high was producing sunny to partly sunny skies. Temperatures were in the lower to mid-40s north of Interstate 94 and around 50 elsewhere. High pressure will drift east through Missouri tonight and then quickly move northeast through the Ohio River Valley on Friday. This will allow temperatures to warm into the mid and upper 40s north of Interstate 94 and into the lower and mid-50s elsewhere. On Friday night, a short wave trough will move north and northeast of the area.
A weak short wave trough is still expected to move across the area overnight, bringing very light precip mainly to the north.
Fair and dry weather returns on Friday under a dome of high pressure. As judged from satellite and radar loops, the incoming and rather weak cold front is still on schedule to whisk through CNY/NEPA this evening. A weakening frontal system attached to a cyclone well north into Ontario will approach the region late today.
At this point, it appears the lowest cigs, likely MVFR to even IFR in a few locations, will arrive after sunrise and prevail through the morning hours. with some spots falling to near the freezing mark across the Concho Valley and Heartland. A weak cold front will move across the area in the afternoon but will have little effect on our weather other than a wind shift out of the northeast. Temperatures will be warmer than yesterday. Lows tonight will be warmer than this morning owing to increasing mid and high level cloud cover.
/issued 1100 AM EST Thu Nov 30 2017/ Fairly benign weather continues as high pressure sets up easterly flow across the region. Weak ridging across the Gulf of Mexico is leading to north- northwest flow aloft across the peninsula, and ushering in a drier and more suppressed atmosphere aloft. The low level boundary that has been draped across the region is washing out, with RUC analysis showing drier air working in even in the low levels.
1049 AM MST Thu Nov 30 2017 Current IR satellite loop shows the upper level trough, which brought windy conditions to portions of the region yesterday, is already moving across the Great Lakes region early this morning. With no polar airmass expected across the plains, temperatures will be slightly warmer than normal for this time of the year on Thursday and Friday, although overnight lows will be chilly and generally below freezing. High temperatures each day will generally range between the mid 40's (west) to mid 50's (east), with Friday likely slightly warmer than Thursday. Kept temperatures a few degrees cooler along the ridges on Thursday due to south winds.
413 PM EST Thu Nov 30 2017 A passing cold front, will bring a few rain showers this evening, and then perhaps a few flurries, later tonight into early Friday. High pressure will build in for the weekend, with a gradual moderation in temperatures, and mainly dry weather. At first, enough low-level moisture should reside underneath the lowering subsidence inversion for a fair amount of stratocumulus clouds across CNY, along with a few flurries or light snow showers. Shallow moisture (as just mentioned), only nominally chilly air, and a rapid approach of surface ridging will keep the Lake Ontario response minimal. Friday night, as surface ridging builds directly overhead, we should see mainly clear skies.
1238 PM EST Thu Nov 30 2017 Cold front with light showers Thursday night. High pressure for the weekend.
Surface analysis has a low pressure system in western Kansas with a cold front extending to the northeast across the forecast area. The cold front will push to the south as the low moves southeast. There will be some warm advection with a return of moisture in the lower levels. Model spread has not diminished since 24 hrs ago as substantial diffs remain in how the last 2 runs of the EC/GFS/CMC/UKMET handle timing/location/intensity of the ejection of the Wrn USA trof. The GFS/UKMET runs are on the fast side of the guidance envelope with trof passage here Tue. A warm front will be approaching from the SW. Sun: cold frontal passage. Mon-Wed: Much cooler than normal with a strong/chilly high heading E along the US-Can border.
An upper low in western British Columbia will be the main feature of interest as it carves out a trough in the Pacific Northwest. Ahead of it, zonal flow with limited moisture will bring a chance of precipitation (mainly in the higher terrain) across the north today. The flow will transition to southwesterly and becomes increasingly moist tonight and Friday as the trough digs into the PacNW. The highest precipitation amounts are expected in the West Central and Boise Mountains. A cold front will move in from the northwest and is expected to reach Ontario and McCall by late afternoon. Temperatures will trend cooler today and Friday.
427 AM EDT Thu Nov 2 2017 The lower atmosphere has modified further during the last 24 hours, with both air and dewpoint temperatures having increased a few degrees Fahrenheit. On the large scale, a deep layer mean anticyclone is centered over the northwestern Caribbean Sea, with a deep layer of westerlies above about 6000 feet elevation. However, forecast confidence is below average owing to uncertainties in the mean sea level pressure field along the southern flank of a high pressure cell.
317 AM CDT Thu Nov 2 2017 In the near-term, dense fog, drizzle, and stratus will be the main concerns as an inverted trough axis/stationary boundary sets up across the CWA. While the lowest ceilings and visibilities have pulled a county or two north in the last few hours, a very gradual southward drift of the front will allow fog to redevelop in areas that have recently cleared, so have opted to continue the dense fog advisory as a near-term forecast vs. Once the boundary pushes south, rain chances will diminish and slightly cooler temperatures will build in for the overnight period.
Weak but warm high pressure will hold over the Carolinas and Southeast states through the end of the work week.
A weak disturbance will bring increasing clouds east of Las Vegas tonight and Thursday, with sprinkles or light showers possible over the higher terrain tonight. A stronger storm system dropping down through the Pacific Northwest will bring increasing wind, slightly cooler temperatures, and chances for snow showers over the Sierra as we head into the weekend.
High pressure builds in tonight, rapidly ending the rain threat this evening. Suppose a few sprinkles/flurries are possible off Lake Superior where airmass is just a bit wetter and cooler, but not a big deal for sure.
Wind speeds will become light after sunset ahead of a weak cold front that will make it into Childress by 06 UTC but just outside the time range for KLBB and KPVW in this TAF cycle. A northern stream short wave trough moving east along the Canadian border will help send a back door cold front into the northeast CWA by Thursday evening. This front may not make it all the way through the southwest CWA Thursday night before it dissipates and a lee-side trough takes over again across the area on Friday.
Went ahead and extended the High Wind Warnings through the evening hours and will wait to see what the trends are later this evening.
424 AM EDT Thu Nov 2 2017 High pressure will extend over the area from the northeast through Friday.
High pressure stretching from offshore the eastern seaboard into the southeast U.
304 AM CDT Thu Nov 2 2017 Skies are cloudy across the forecast area early this morning with temperatures in the low to mid 60s.
Chilly conditions today as broad upper level troughing filters cold Canadian air in the state.
403 AM MDT Thu Nov 2 2017 Current surface analysis shows cold front south and west of the forecast area, with northerly winds across the area. Upper level analysis shows broad trough across the region, with strong westerly jet from the Pacific NW to the Great Lakes region. Flow aloft will turn more southwesterly tonight into the early part of the weekend as trough digs southeastward across the western US.
212 AM MDT Thu Nov 2 2017 The forecast challenge in the short term time period is the change in high temperatures from Today to Tomorrow following the passage of a cold front early Thursday morning. The near surface flow will turn northerly with cooler, more seasonable temperatures expected on Thursday.
1131 PM MDT Wed Nov 1 2017 Upper level analysis shows a broad trough covering the CONUS, with a 110-kt jet in northwest flow pushing into the northern plains. Behind the cold front, winds are northwesterly around 10 to 15 kts. Forecast soundings indicate the potential for some light freezing rain east of the Hills and also across northwestern SD, as well as a little snow. Precip will continue into Friday, with the chances for freezing rain and/or sleet continuing into Friday night across northwestern SD.
131 AM EDT Thu Nov 2 2017 A warm front slowly approaches from the south tonight into Thursday morning.
Currently, low pressure was located along the ND/SD border near Ashley. An inverted trough extended from the low northwest to near Watford City. Upper level analysis places a broad trough over the central United States, with a compact wave zipping through our area which is leading to an area of light rain and snow now sliding mainly through central North Dakota from west to east. For Thursday, weak ridge passes on over bringing a relatively quiet day to most locations.
High pressure will ridge into the forecast area through the weekend. A surface pressure ridge will remain in the region through tonight. The pressure gradient will be weak with the ridge axis in the region.
For today, a cold front will move across the fcst area. Latest model guidance has come in cooler overall, especially northern half of the region and have followed suit in the grids.
A warm front is forecast to cross Indiana overnight. It will be followed by a cold front Thursday night, and then a high pressure system Friday. Warm fronts, cold fronts, high pressure systems, and low pressure systems are all predicted to affect our state.
For Friday, it will be slightly cooler, with highs in the upper 50s to lower 70s. Into the weekend, weak 500mb ridging will set up, with a return to persistent warm air advection and highs back well above normal 80s for most, approaching the upper 80s to lower 90s along the Red River into north Texas.
Flow aloft should become more westerly on Thursday and then more to the southwest Thursday night as an upper low in the Pacific NW is expected to move slowly southward.
Temperatures as of 7pm were in the low to mid 70s and should generally fall into the 60s by midnight, aside for some low 70s across the Miami and Fort Lauderdale metropolitan area. /issued 428 PM EDT Wed Nov 1 2017/ SHORT TERM (Tonight through Friday night) High pressure remains dominant across South Florida today, with east/northeast flow, bringing fairly dry and relatively cool air (for early November) to South Florida. The overall weather pattern will change little for the remainder of the week, although with continuing high pressure centered north of the region and slightly lowering pressure to the south and east, gradient will increase and thus conditions will become breezy.
This will keep the lowest levels very moist with cloud bases dropping to around 1500 to 2000 feet by 12Z with only slight improvement Thursday afternoon.
310 AM EDT Thu Nov 2 2017 Rain chances will continue this morning as a warm front completes it's passage.
Less wind expected on Thu all areas as winds aloft slowly weaken, while surface cold front backs into the eastern plains by afternoon. Highs will top out in the 60s for the lower elevations.
Highs tomorrow will range from the lower 60s across northern MO to the lower 70s across the southern portions of the forecast area. LIFR fog and stratus will continue through the morning hours as moisture continues to lift northward along and following a warm front. Fog will likely persist for several hours after sunrise, then should dissipate as mixing increases ahead of an approaching cold front.
Despite the approaching low pressure system, moisture transport will be too low to support precip on Thursday.
606 AM EDT Thu Nov 2 2017 High pressure will ridge into the forecast area through the weekend. A surface pressure ridge will remain in the region through tonight. The pressure gradient will be weak with the ridge axis in the region.
316 AM CDT Thu Nov 2 2017 A little warm frontal fog was sneaking into far southeast NE this morning, with a narrow band of light rain just over the border in SD. Subjective 00Z upper-air analysis indicates broad and flattening upper-level trough across the central US, with 100-115kt upper-level jet extending from WA/OR across the Rockies and into western SD/western NE.
524 AM EDT Thu Nov 2 2017 Rain chances will continue this morning as a warm front completes it's passage.
317 AM EDT Thu Nov 2 2017 Warm front has lifted north. Main warm front has lifted well north of the forecast area, but have a secondary wave lifting through now with isolated to scattered showers. Cut back POPs a bit overnight, but GFS and ECMWF still indicate decent chance of some showers a cold front approaches from the west. Cold front pushes through on Friday then stalls just south of the CWA Friday night.
252 AM CDT Thu Nov 2 2017 A modest mid level speed max (50kt@5h) and assocd dry shrtwv trof will track east across the area to north of the CWFA this PM. This with a broad low level thermal ridge (20C-21C@85h) will result in dry/breezy conditions with 20-25kts@85h from SE NM-PB. Sat-Sun will be even warmer/drier as 85h thermal ridge amplifies and increase to 22C-24C. Difference are attributed to GFS' open trof solution in mid level flow. Regardless coolest day looks to be Wed, but warmer wx returns Thur with another dry front on Fri.
The overall forecast has changed very little for today, snow showers have been increasing in coverage overnight, and the main focus for snow along the Highway 200 corridor and northward into northwest Montana holds for today.
On Friday, another cold frontal system is expected to approach the area from the northwest. It is likely that this cold front merges with the weak stationary boundary and promote a stalled area of enhanced lift and moisture near the north Georgia border.
Will continue to see 5-7ft clouds today and after the lower clouds this morning expect VFR conditions. High temperatures will continue to increase today with afternoon highs in the low 80s.
Another round of IFR is expected tomorrow night and some of the high-res guidance is showing the possibility of LIFR. The low cloud deck should break up around noon or shortly thereafter and return again in the late evening hours Thursday.
Southerly flow in the low levels will continue to advect warm, moist air into the region. Upper heights will begin to slightly increase as the weak trough exits the region this evening and drier air begins to filter into the mid levels, resulting in a lull in shower activity as night falls. Shower activity could begin to pick up once again in late night hours as another weak disturbance begins to near the Lower MS River Valley Region.
There is a low probability of seeing some freezing drizzle/very light freezing rain mainly Friday morning if the mid level (snow production clouds) saturated layer goes away, and all that's left is jet level cirrus and a deep supercooled stratus layer in between periods of snow. Easterly component surface/boundary layer wind direction drawing cold dry air off a Canada sourced area of high pressure may end up eating into snow totals before it's all said and done Friday night.
657 AM EDT Thu Nov 2 2017 Warmer air will gradually overspread the state today. A weak cold front will move through the area Friday. Yet another cold front is expected to approach by the end of the weekend as our pattern of fast moving, relatively weak weather systems remains in place. Short wave trough over LE this hour is sliding steadily ENE, but the forcing remains stretched out back to nrn IN. High pressure along the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast Coast will keep the S/SE wind going tonight. A storm moving across the Upper Great Lakes will start to pull moisture in from the Gulf as it pushes a cold front down from the northwest. The high pressure over the East Coast and Deep South will then cut off the good moisture flow as the front moves into PA.
The northern end of a weak 500-mb trough over the southern CONUS continues to push eastward across the local area this evening. However, water vapor satellite imagery suggests that pronounced mid-level subsidence and drying will occur in the wake of trough axis, and this trend is confirmed by forecast soundings from the NAM/GFS models. Otherwise, a fairly rapid increase in low stratus clouds is expected to occur between 06-09Z, as nocturnal strengthening of the low-level jet begins to advect rich low-level moisture northward into the region. The broad upper-trough will remain the dominant weather feature across the CONUS over the next couple of days.
Sustained warm and moist southerly flow combined with ample cloud cover will help to keep overnight low temps on the mild side with lows in the low to mid 60s across much of the region. Cloud cover will once again keep daytime highs on the cooler side, but the warm air advection pattern will result in high temps in the upper 70s to low 80s.
Flow aloft is mainly zonal with weak troughing across the central CONUS. The pattern buckles a little as we see an upper trough dig into the Pacific Northwest. Ground temperatures are still above freezing, and I don't anticipate much for ice due to this, even though air temperatures will fall into the 20s tonight - though bridges and overpasses would be more likely respond to the colder air temperatures this early in the season.
Expect highs in the lower 80s each afternoon, with lows in the mid 50s each morning.
358 AM CDT Thu Nov 2 2017 Temps will continue the warming trend today ahead of the next cold front which is currently into northwest KS. This forecast trended toward maintaining a stronger gradient in temps across the region which results in a cooler temp forecast for much of NE OK on Friday.
218 AM CDT Thu Nov 2 2017 Southerly flow has brought warmer temps and dewpoints across the region. Surface pattern to remain unchanged through much of the weekend with high pressure to the east and a low to the west, maintaining breezy, warm, and humid conditions each day. Temperatures to range from lows in the upper 60s to highs in the lower 80s.
/issued 236 PM CDT Wed Nov 1 2017/ A broad upper level trough is over the northern part of the country and westerly flow is over the CWA. A more zonal flow pattern will take shape for Thursday; otherwise, conditions will be similar to today with temperatures perhaps a degree or two warmer. An upper trough develops over the west coast on Friday, and temperatures across West Texas and southeast New Mexico stay similar to the previous two days.
619 AM EDT Thu Nov 2 2017 Warm front has lifted north. Main warm front has lifted well north of the forecast area, but have a secondary wave lifting through now with isolated to scattered showers. Cut back POPs a bit overnight, but GFS and ECMWF still indicate decent chance of some showers a cold front approaches from the west. Cold front pushes through on Friday then stalls just south of the CWA Friday night.
311 AM CDT Thu Nov 2 2017 Will probably get a short warm sector break in the precip most areas today as a cold front drops southeast toward the region. Temps will vary from near 70 again near the front, to the lower/mid 60s up along the I-64 corridor north of the front.
123 AM EDT Thu Nov 2 2017 Warm front has lifted north. Main warm front has lifted well north of the forecast area, but have a secondary wave lifting through now with isolated to scattered showers. Cut back POPs a bit overnight, but GFS and ECMWF still indicate decent chance of some showers a cold front approaches from the west. Towards the surface, high pressure settled over the southeastern CONUS will set up return flow with moisture flowing northward into the OH Valley region.