Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
A very broad ridge that brought central California the record breaking heat the last couple of days has moved eastward into the central conus. As the ridge moves east a deep trough over the Pacific Northwest is moving southward along the west coast to take the ridges place. The increased clouds coupled with lowering heights has allowed temperatures across our CWA to become 10 to 16 degrees cooler than 24 hours ago. The broad ridging over the central conus will become sandwiched between the Pacific low and another deep trough over the eastern conus.
228 PM EDT Fri May 5 2017 An upper low pressure exits northeast tonight and Saturday. The upper level low pressure system currently over WV, will move slowly northeast into PA tonight and Saturday. Moist and cool cyclonic circulation around an upper low, centered to our northeast, will continue to affect our weather through at least Saturday night. Enough cold air aloft will even bring some wet snow to the higher elevations of the northern mountains later Saturday night.
426 PM EDT Fri May 5 2017 An upper level low is centered roughly over south-central Appalachians and is drifting slowly to the east-northeast. At the surface, several surface boundaries or troughs are evident across the region.
326 PM CDT Fri May 5 2017 Large ridge through the central CONUS all the way into central Canada. There is an upper trough along the west coast. Models having no problems with the upper ridge over the southern through northern plains. There is a lot of warm drier air underneath the ridge. After a warm start to the day temperatures will climb into the low 80s over most of western Nebraska.
An upper ridge over Montana today will be weakening a bit into Saturday as an upper trough over the west coast deepens then splits.
A subtle cool front near the Lower Keys will pass through our entire area by late this evening or early tonight. In wake of the cool front, a large, albeit weak area of high pressure over the Gulf of Mexico will expand across the Sunshine State and the adjacent waters including our region.
416 PM EDT Fri May 5 2017 Low pressure will track west of our area Overnight into Saturday.
253 PM CDT Fri May 5 2017 With the entrance of an upper ridge from the west, a quiet weather pattern is set as we head into the weekend. As the ridge builds in and thicknesses increase, we'll see markedly warmer highs on Saturday, with several places breaching 90.
Texas is situated firmly in the middle of the H5 ridge, keeping stable weather continuing in the short term.
UPDATED 1201 PM MDT Fri May 5 2017 Upper level analysis has a long wave ridge over the Rockies creating northwest flow across the forecast area. At the surface, weak high pressure is centered over CWA, with light winds and clear skies. Upper ridge will continue to build and slide eastward, becoming centered over the forecast area by Saturday. This will bring warmer conditions with temperatures 15-20F above normal this weekend.
150 PM MDT Fri May 5 2017 Upper ridge axis over the Rockies today will shift eastward to the High Plains on Saturday.
351 PM EDT Fri May 5 2017 Low pressure over southwestern PA will lift northeast into central NY on Saturday.
HRRR runs continue to show the deformation band shifting eastward across the forecast area today as the upper low slowly moves out, and will keep pops in the likely to categorical range although nothing heavy is expected. MVFR/IFR cigs/vis with -SHRA expected at all airports this afternoon as upper low moves across the region.
254 PM CDT Fri May 5 2017 Breezy, dry weather occurred today with a ridge of high pressure over the Plains.
1252 PM CDT Fri May 5 2017 A blocking ridge positioned in the Plains will provide generally quiet aviation weather through the weekend. South winds will return Saturday as the ridge continues east into Louisiana, with speeds mainly at or below 10 KT. This omega block style of setup will keep us positioned beneath an upper ridge with upper lows located to the east and west. We'll remain in deep northerly flow today as the downstream upper low continues to depart to the east. Most areas will see highs in the 80s over the weekend with lows in the 50s and 60s, although some highs in the low 90s are possible in western zones.
Advisory for around 2 inches of snow was put out for the southern tier and for generally 3-5 inches in the higher terrain of the southwestern counties. Very fluffy snow at that and warmer temperatures. Warmer in a relative sense as high temperatures will may be a good 5-10F warmer than today. Southeastern areas too will get in on the cold act with lows mainly in the lower teens. Rural areas that catch 2 inches of snow could dip below 10F! As the ridge build over the western United states an amplified trough will continue to deepen. this elongated trough will extend westward. The ensemble mean and deterministic models are in fair agreement on the position of a low over Hudson Ba and a deepening trough bring another weather system through the region mid to late week.
Once the cold front pushes through the area overnight, dry conditions are expected into Saturday. Northern CWA should be hanging in the low single digits, with wind chills reaching the -15 and below range as early as mid morning.
Unusually strong high pressure is anchored over southern California coast this afternoon. This is bringing record high temperatures to the higher elevations while some northern Arizona valleys remained under an inversion. The area of high pressure will slowly shift toward Arizona through the weekend as it weakens.
Winds are starting to relax a bit too as high pressure moves farther towards the east and the coastal troughing that has been loitering the past few days finally breaks down.
928 PM EST Fri Dec 29 2017 Canadian high pressure in the forecast area tonight will be reinforced behind a dry cold front Saturday night. Dry high pressure will ridge into the area from the north with low pressure pushing farther off the Southeast Coast through tonight. Leaned toward the lower temperature guidance because of the cold air mass with lows in the middle to upper 20s overnight. Broad upper trough remains over the eastern half of the country. We will see temperatures warm to near normal Saturday with warm advection in advance of a cold front. The NAM mos indicated highs in the lower 50s for the past few model runs while the GFS and ECMWF showed highs in the 55 to 60 degree range. A cold front will cross the forecast area Saturday night with limited moisture.
02 UTC surface analysis shows a weak area of high pressure across the area centered between Tallahassee and Valdosta. 9 micron satellite imagery depicts the back edge of the low stratus along a line from Apalachicola to Lake City.
922 PM EST Fri Dec 29 2017 A broad area of low pressure will progress to the east and it should pass off the Northeast coast late on Saturday.
The area of light freezing drizzle and snow flurries that developed across the mid CWA around Noon should continue to push southeast and out of the area through early this evening. We have gotten reports that vehicles were becoming icy, and some bridges, but 511 road reports have mostly shown green conditions, except for some patchy ice in western Iowa. Very cold high pressure builds in tonight with lows dropping into the single digits above and below zero. As models have indicated over the last several days, extremely cold air moves in through the remainder of the weekend as arctic high pressure moves in.
608 PM EST Fri Dec 29 2017 After another cold night, a low pressure area will move east out of the Great lakes and bring light snow to New York and Pennsylvania Saturday.
Significant updates to the forecast as temperatures remain at or slightly below freezing over many locations across our washington zones and over north central oregon. Slight chance of freezing rain was added across this area for the evening and some snow was also included along portions of the east slopes of the washington cascades near easton. Elsewhere fog remains over the lower columbia basin and now the forecast appears on track.
605 PM EST Fri Dec 29 2017 After another cold night, a low pressure area will move east out of the Great lakes and bring light snow to New York and Pennsylvania Saturday.
Upper air analysis from this morning depicted broad troughing across much of the central and eastern CONUS with light westerly flow aloft over south central Texas. At the surface, high pressure centered over the region has yielded light and variable winds with a low stratus deck in place. Temperatures will warm up a bit on Saturday afternoon to near seasonal normals as a cold front makes its approach from the north.
Low pressure well east of FL continues to track east-northeast away from the peninsula. Overnight mins expected cooler and may realize L-M40s north of I-4 with U40s/L50s across much of the rest of the area, except M-U50s along the immediate Space/Treasure coasts. Low pressure well offshore with trailing weak lingering surface boundary to the south will drift farther away with high pressure and drier air filtering in from the NW. Low pressure to the east of the waters continues to pull away toward the east-northeast.
With temperatures struggling to reach above freezing, a few spritz of freezing drizzle may also occur in this area. With roadways well below freezing, this could cause hazardous driving conditions wherever this occurs.
The first piece of cold air will arrive late tonight mainly due to pure density as the upper level flow is relatively flat and the main upper low is basically a clipper system that will move across the Great Lakes a good distance away. Strong CAA below the frontal inversion and upslope flow will combine to saturate the lowest few thousand feet and will also lead to patchy/areas of freezing fog once again and possibly patchy freezing drizzle.
HOB is also expected to see MVFR conditions due to ceilings around 15Z but dissipating around 19Z Generally winds will be light southwest to west across most of southeast New Mexico and southwest Texas at least through 11Z when a cold front will push into the area bringing northeast winds around 12 knots with a few gusts beginning at HOB around 11Z, MAF at 13Z, INK at 14Z, FST at 15Z and PEQ at 16Z. An increasing southwest wind will help the cooler areas catch up yielding a very pleasant afternoon. That southwest wind should prevent a return of the low clouds and fog tonight before another cold front arrives Saturday morning. The greatest impact of the front tomorrow will be in the Permian Basin and western Low Rolling Plains where the lower elevation will prevent a complete mixing out of the airmass.
750 PM EST Fri Dec 29 2017 A broad area of low pressure will progress to the east and it should pass off the Northeast coast late on Saturday.
637 PM EST Fri Dec 29 2017 A low pressure system and cold front approach tonight, and then cross on Saturday. Warm advection / isentropic lift ahead of a low pressure system approaching from the west, will bring snow across northern and central portions of the area tonight. As the associated cold front crosses Saturday, the snow will transition to mountain snow showers, with west winds increasing and becoming gusty, ushering in yet another arctic air mass, beginning Saturday afternoon.
A ridge anchored over the West Coast will ensure a continuation of dry and mild conditions through the remainder of the month.
Depending what happens after the cold front and with the wind shift, some fog may develop around 09Z through 12Z Saturday which will reduce cigs to MVFR/IFR for that time window. The first piece of cold air will arrive late tonight mainly due to pure density as the upper level flow is relatively flat and the main upper low is basically a clipper system that will move across the Great Lakes a good distance away. Strong CAA below the frontal inversion and upslope flow will combine to saturate the lowest few thousand feet and will also lead to patchy/areas of freezing fog once again and possibly patchy freezing drizzle.
Mid and upper level trough over the Great Lakes and northeast CONUS combined with upper ridging across the southwestern states will lead to continued northwesterly flow aloft over the local region. At the surface, a large area of high pressure extends across the area from eastern Texas north and east toward the Carolinas and Mid Atlantic states.
Another short wave trough caught in the northwest flow aloft will come out of the northern Rockies late tonight and drop southeast toward the central Mississippi River Valley for Saturday night.
Patchy drizzle and eventually, freezing drizzle will expand from northwest to southeast late this evening and into tomorrow, with a gradual diminishing trend tomorrow afternoon as drier low level air finally moves in behind the initial frontal surge.
418 PM MST Fri Dec 29 2017 High pressure remains to the west with a northwest flow overhead.
A weak cold front sags into northern Nevada on Saturday with a mixture of rain or snow toward the northern border.
All terminals were brought down to MVFR cigs after 12z ahead of a dry cold front.
Only tweak was to indicate some warming near the coast overnight as the warm front inches closer.
723 PM CST Fri Dec 29 2017 Updated the forecast to include a mention of very light freezing drizzle or flurries this evening. With temperatures struggling to reach above freezing, a few spritz of freezing drizzle may also occur in this area. With roadways well below freezing, this could cause hazardous driving conditions wherever this occurs.
Cool and relatively moist air to our east will surge back westward this evening and combine with a cold front dropping southward out of the Texas Panhandle late tonight. Once winds taper by sunset, attention will turn to a strong cold front currently dropping across the High Plains of CO and KS. This pattern should support another round of morning stratus and some freezing fog behind the front over much of the area, but clouds are likely to loiter for most/all of the day as chilly surface ridging holds tight and prevents upslope winds from veering too much. By Saturday night, broad troughing in NW flow to our north will release a legitimate Arctic airmass towards the TX Panhandle, before reaching the South Plains near daybreak.
This coupled with weak convergence just off the deck means we will carry a slight chance of light freezing drizzle or flurries. Cold advection takes over Saturday as the next strong cold high pressure system pushes south into the area. The high will continue to press south Saturday night through New Year's Eve night.
The first in a series of cold fronts is moving south across Central Plains and will move into the area on Saturday. Overnight low temperatures are expected to fall to right at or just below freezing across Southeast Oklahoma and adjacent portions of extreme Southwest Arkansas. Therefore, patchy freezing drizzle was included in this area until temperatures rise above 32 degrees F Saturday morning. Patchy light rain and drizzle will persist areawide for much of the day Saturday as the first cold front moves through the area.
226 PM PST Fri Dec 29 2017 A persistent ridge of high pressure along the West Coast will provide quiet and dry weather through New Years Day, with well above average daytime temperatures and relatively light valley winds. In the Truckee Meadows, the valley inversion has remained in place with temperatures only in the mid/upper 40s, but just down the road in Washoe Valley and Stead the inversion mixed out earlier today and the temperature has jumped up to 64 degrees! The abundant cloud cover today has really hindered the heating and kept the inversions in place, but other valleys temperatures have soared into the low 60s.
700 PM EST Fri Dec 29 2017 Canadian high pressure in the forecast area tonight will be reinforced behind a dry cold front Saturday night. Dry high pressure will ridge into the area from the north with low pressure pushing farther off the Southeast Coast through tonight. Leaned toward the lower temperature guidance because of the cold air mass with lows in the middle to upper 20s overnight. Broad upper trough remains over the eastern half of the country. We will see temperatures warm to near normal Saturday with warm advection in advance of a cold front. The NAM mos indicated highs in the lower 50s for the past few model runs while the GFS and ECMWF showed highs in the 55 to 60 degree range. A cold front will cross the forecast area Saturday night with limited moisture.
The leading edge of the low clouds which were pushing to the southeast have come to a halt just south of the I-10 corridor. Elsewhere high pressure building in will bring mostly clear skies and with residual low level moisture and light winds.
With the clipper the higher QPF is in the southwest mountains in the 0. Southeastern areas too will get in on the cold act with lows mainly in the lower teens.
Several record highs were set today, and it's likely that a few more will be set on Saturday as the unusually strong ridge persists over the area. Unusually strong high pressure is anchored over southern California coast this afternoon. This is bringing record high temperatures to the higher elevations while some northern Arizona valleys remained under an inversion. The area of high pressure will slowly shift toward Arizona through the weekend as it weakens.
A back door cold front may create patchy low clouds and possibly fog just across the border into NE and E central NM later tonight, which could impact KCAO to KCVN.
541 PM CST Fri Dec 29 2017 We've got two main headlines for this forecast period: freezing drizzle possible today and VERY cold temperatures this weekend. The freezing drizzle chances are for this afternoon and tonight, for the northern half of MO and mainly east of I-35. While the entire sounding profile at several locations is below 0 degrees, freezing drizzle seems the most likely outcome due to the shallow moisture profile, which is outside of the dendritic zone, and enhanced lift from the approaching boundary.
The HREFV2 and the HRRR seem to keep the higher QPF amounts south. This is confined to the higher elevations of Somerset and Cambria counties. This again is based on a 20:1 ratio for the high ends.
516 PM CST Fri Dec 29 2017 A cold front was just north of GCK-RSL-MYZ line as of 21z.
942 PM CST Fri Dec 29 2017 Current temperatures running a little warmer than forecast but will not make changes. The first in a series of cold fronts is moving south across Central Plains and will move into the area on Saturday. Overnight low temperatures are expected to fall to right at or just below freezing across Southeast Oklahoma and adjacent portions of extreme Southwest Arkansas. Therefore, patchy freezing drizzle was included in this area until temperatures rise above 32 degrees F Saturday morning. Patchy light rain and drizzle will persist areawide for much of the day Saturday as the first cold front moves through the area.
Today, a weak zone of high pressure governs our weather.
305 AM CST Thu Jan 25 2018 High pressure will continue to drift eastward into the Appalachians, allowing a southerly return flow to bring warmer conditions to central Illinois today. Thanks to continued southerly flow, lows tonight will be warmer than in recent nights. with readings remaining in the lower to middle 30s. As a cold front begins to approach from the northwest on Friday, the pressure gradient will tighten across the Midwest.
1220 AM EST Thu Jan 25 2018 The trough axis has shifted off to the east, taking with it any lingering light precipitation. Do not anticipate any issues with freezing drizzle but that will have to be watched if precip lingers longer than currently anticipated. High pressure will provide quiet weather Thursday and Thursday night. Stayed close to the blended model guidance for temps on Thursday with highs in the 40s to near 50 but took temps down below blended guidance Thursday night in the valleys as favorable radiational cooling conditions should allow valleys to fall deep into the 20s while ridges remain near freezing.
1231 AM EST Thu Jan 25 2018 Canadian high pressure builds in for the rest of the week.
1144 PM CST Wed Jan 24 2018 At 3 PM, a ridge of high pressure was located over the Upper Mississippi River Valley. The low clouds will persist through this evening and there are hints in the models that skies may gradually clear overnight. High temperatures on Thursday will be in the lower and mid 30s across the deep snow pack across parts of northeast Iowa, southeast Minnesota, west-central Wisconsin and north-central Wisconsin. Elsewhere the high temperatures will be around 40. 12z models continue to bring unseasonably warm 925 and 850 mb air into the region ahead of an approaching short wave trough. This will result in the high temperatures on Friday climbing into the 40s across the region.
1202 AM EST Thu Jan 25 2018 Snow chances should continue until high pressure returns dry weather Thursday and Friday. Most of the accumulation is expected in the higher terrain of WV and MD, though a low inversion heights should limit this potential to an additional inch. Thursday and Friday will be dry with a warming trend in temperatures as high pressure builds.
248 AM CST Thu Jan 25 2018 Temperatures have cooled off a bit faster overnight when compared to the previous forecast, so adjusted temps a bit lower to see morning lows in the low to mid 20s. Should winds pick up a bit higher than 10 to 15 mph and mix the low levels a bit further, min RH values could fall a bit further.
A midlevel ridge is currently building over the plains as a strong trough over the Pacific Northwest continues to progress eastward. It is these locations that will likely be slightly cooler than surround areas due to the snow pack inhibiting daytime mixing. Tomorrow the westerly midlevel flow over the eastern Rockies should promote a deepening lee trough. The lowest SREF member with minimum RH value is at 25 percent in central KS perhaps getting into the far southwest counties of the forecast area. The large scale forcing is not particularly strong, but will drive weak cold front through the area. Ahead of the cold front low level gulf moisture advects into southeast KS.
314 AM EST Thu Jan 25 2018 Dry high pressure over the region today will move off the coast Friday. A cold front will bring rain to the region over the weekend.
Upper trough axis overhead now with sharp upper ridge over the Rockies. Otherwise, sharp upper ridge moves toward the area tonight. Warmer air aloft, but still quite a bit of cloudiness around with weak warm advection/moisture trapped around 1500ft, so temps Thursday warmer than today but again will wait for bigger warmup in the strong warm advection Friday. With the warm front past us as well, we begin to warm advect over the region on Friday. However, it looks like as we get close to 12z/Sat, the temperatures fall below freezing, and change over to snow.
251 AM EST Thu Jan 25 2018 High pressure builds in Thursday. Warmer to end the week. Cold front this weekend. Will be well into thickness recovery with the approach of a 500mb ridge and low level war air advection Thursday and Thursday night. Translation to warmer air at the surface today will be minimal, however, but this should prevent the sheltered valleys from bottoming out too far in terms of temperatures tonight. With plenty of sunshine and southerly flow, Friday will be a warm day -- with highs across the lowlands approaching 60 degrees. This will likely lead to wide spread in temperatures between ridges and valleys.
341 AM CST Thu Jan 25 2018 Upper pattern has a trough moving ashore West Coast with a ridge extending up across the Central plains.
Meanwhile, the pesky upper level trough axis is slowly moving east, but we remain more influenced by it across the far east. Temperatures will climb into mid to upper 40s for most but perhaps a bit cooler in the far north and east. This will lead to ridge/valley temperature splits in east despite the beginning return flow pattern. Given the amply southerly flow and ridging we will see temperatures climb into the upper 50s to around 60 for afternoon high temperatures.