Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
As a sharp upper trough digs into the Rockies, downstream ridging will push a warm front through the region on Thursday.
By the afternoon some showers ahead of the a broad trough moving in from the Pacific Northwest will start to impact the western mountains. The area with the highest gust potential in Wheatland County. Showers will continue through the day and behind the front, temperatures will be much cooler, with highs only in the 50s versus the 70s today.
157 AM EDT Wed May 18 2022 High pressure will provide cool and dry weather into Wednesday before a warm front brings light rain Wednesday night into early Thursday morning.
An isolated shower can not be ruled out this afternoon through early evening as associated short wave trough continues to push to the east. A sprawling area of high pressure remains over the southern plains and lower Mississippi Valley. These upper troughs will knock down the ridge slightly as they pass through and eventually shunt the axis of the ridge to the east. Additionally a cold front front will approach the state from the north early Thursday. Front will eventually run into the aforementioned ridge and stall, bringing chances of precipitation to the north once again.
1134 PM EDT Tue May 17 2022 High pressure will provide cool and dry weather into Wednesday before a warm front brings light rain Wednesday night into early Thursday morning.
In the out periods, the forecast opens with an upper level low riding along on the front edge of an anomalously large/cold/broad upper level longwave trof; moving into the northern plains and bringing some precipitation chances to the CWA. Strong upper steering flow noted, lines up well with the strong/fast-moving surface cold front sweeping through the CWA on Thursday. SPC has maintained a low probability of severe thunderstorms getting going across the far east/southeast forecast zones of the CWA along this cold front, prior to its departure south and east of the CWA.
This will cause some height falls and spin up a small area of low pressure that is expected to bring some thunderstorms to the Northland Wednesday afternoon/evening. There will be a brief break in the action Thursday morning, or at least thatâs the expectation, before an organized low pressure moves into the region. There will be a lot of buoyancy across NW WI with synoptic lift along a warm front, but more importantly high PWATs over an inch will pose the threat for heavy rainfall in the warm and cold frontal portions of the low pressure system.
High pressure building across the region will bring warming inland temperatures and lower humidity values.
The period will start with ongoing warm air advection and upper level ridging building over the southeast CONUS. A weak warm frontal boundary should be moving northeast over KY.
/Tonight through Wednesday/ Key Messages: -Uncertainties arise for severe weather threat tonight due to daytime convection -Heavy rain remains consistent threat tonight -More severe weather possible Thursday -Much cooler air mass arrives for the weekend Discussion: There seems to be a tight severe weather window tonight, concentrated mostly in far southwest Iowa.
Zonal upper level flow has replaced upper ridging across the central and southern Plains, as a series of SWTs continue to progress eastward through the flow.
315 AM MDT Wed May 18 2022 Current surface analysis shows low pressure over northern ND, with a weak cold front stretching southwest into eastern MT. Lows tonight will be in the 40s and 50s, ahead of a strong cold front to the northwest.
Brief ridging tonight is followed by a deepening Pacific northwest trough and upper level jet streak, which will push over the Dakotas on Thursday.
639 AM CDT Wed May 18 2022 Key Messages: - Rain exiting the area later this morning - Strong to severe storms possible Thursday - Much cooler this weekend Rain showers moving out: Widespread rain showers moved across the area during the overnight hours and will continue to slide east this morning. Later today a short wave trough passes by to the north over Lake Superior providing precip chances for Clark and Taylor counties this evening.
521 AM MDT Wed May 18 2022 Current surface analysis shows low pressure over northern ND, with a weak cold front stretching southwest into eastern MT. Lows tonight will be in the 40s and 50s, ahead of a strong cold front to the northwest.
A colder air mass will arrive as the upper level low passes overhead Thursday, and temperatures will trend lower by 10 degrees compared to today.
Temperatures this morning will climb from the lower to mid 50s into the mid 80s to lower 90s during the afternoon hours. The cold front moves a bit further southeast towards the area tonight into Thursday, but stalls north of the area.
High pressure remains over the region this morning with satellite imagery showing mainly clear skies. The warm front associated with it will remain well north of our area, which should focus convection further up the East Coast. Given the high instability, high lapse rates aloft, and deep shear, any storms that do develop will bring strong, possibly damaging winds.
651 AM CDT Wed May 18 2022 The main cold front was located across northern OK into central MO. The main forecast focus in the short term will be thunderstorm chances across north central Ne this afternoon and evening, followed by much warmer temperatures Thursday ahead of an advancing cold front. Highs today from near 80 north to the low to mid 80s southwest.
5") over the Lower Mississippi River Valley shifting east to over the eastern half of the Southeast by Thursday. A plume of drier air moves north over the Lower Mississippi River tonight into Thursday then shifts east, dropping the precipitable h20 values into the 1. Inland from the coast, upper subsidence is enough to help high temperatures again rise to well above seasonal norms, topping out in the low to mid 90s north of I-10, mid 80s to around 90 south to the coast. High temperatures topping out in the low to mid 90s north of I-10, mid 80s to around 90 south to the coast.
Lows will reach the low to mid 70s and patchy fog could develop in rural and low lying areas during the early morning hours before dissipating after sunrise.
Meanwhile a cold front had moved into the far nrn Panhandle. By mid morning the cold front will have moved into the srn plains with dryline moving e early and is expected to be e of Big Spring before 18Z.
The deep trough will lift to the northeast and away from the Peninsula today as a mid-level ridge over the Caribbean raises north and expands into the region over the next several days, as depicted by the deterministic guidance.
Mainly dry and much warmer weather is the remainder of the week.
However, the low over southern Manitoba that is responsible for these winds is forecast to move relatively quickly towards the southeast and the surface pressure gradient is not too substantial. Brief ridging tonight is followed by a deepening Pacific northwest trough and upper level jet streak, which will push over the Dakotas on Thursday.
246 AM PDT Wed May 18 2022 High pressure will result in a very warm day today.
437 AM CDT Wed May 18 2022 Temperatures this morning will climb from the lower to mid 50s into the mid 80s to lower 90s during the afternoon hours. The cold front moves a bit further southeast towards the area tonight into Thursday, but stalls north of the area.
SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday): Mid-level ridging overhead will continue to provide subsidence across the region through the period. At the surface, high pressure across the central Gulf of Mexico and low pressure across the Plains will support moderate to breezy south to southeast winds today and Thursday. Highs will range from the lower 80s at the beaches, the low to mid 90s across the Lower Rio Grande Valley and the upper 90s to the triple digits along and west of the I-69C/U. Lows tonight are expected to fall to around 70 across the northern Ranchlands and the Brush Country to the low to mid 70s along the Rio Grande River and near the coast.
431 AM CDT Wed May 18 2022 Key Messages: - Rain exiting the area later this morning - Strong to severe storms possible Thursday - Much cooler this weekend Rain showers moving out: Widespread rain showers moved across the area during the overnight hours and will continue to slide east this morning. Later today a short wave trough passes by to the north over Lake Superior providing precip chances for Clark and Taylor counties this evening.
/issued 424 AM EDT Wed May 18 2022/ The upper trough will continue to lift out today while high pressure builds in at the surface, and westerly flow and drier air will keep POPs in the 20-30 percent range through Thursday.
Hot conditions this afternoon with high temps in the low-mid 90s inland, near 90 coast. A weak stalled front over the waters will dissipate today as high pressure builds southeast of the region. The high will build east of the local waters through the end of the week with southerly flow over the local waters becoming SE near the coast with the east coast sea breeze in the afternoon then flow becoming more SSW overnight.
The upper low on approach will keep SW flow going until the next fropa shifts winds to NW late Sat and NE for Sun. The broad ridge axis has shifted overhead and the old lingering boundary is pretty much washed out with current dew points running anywhere from mid 60s to right at 70 muggy degrees. Moisture increasing with a brisk SW flow in the low levels with some low clouds forming over deep E TX at this time.
After a slight inland cool down tomorrow, warmer temperatures are expected to return by the weekend. Temperatures will warm into the upper 80s to low 90s in the warmer interior valleys, while coastal areas generally remain in the 60s. An upper-level trough and associated cold front will move into the Pacific Northwest later today and into tonight.
Additionally, strong lapse rates, sizable CAPE between -10C and -30C, and low freezing levels supports a hail threat as well. Chattanooga Airport, TN 90 67 92 69 92 / 10 20 30 10 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 87 67 88 69 92 / 10 30 50 20 10 Oak Ridge, TN 87 66 88 67 91 / 10 30 50 20 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 85 62 83 63 91 / 20 60 50 20 10.
641 AM CDT Wed May 18 2022 For the 12Z TAFs, a cold front has moved through the terminal sites with gusty north winds in its wake.
Although slightly weakening through the period, high pressure aloft and at the surface will remain in control of the weather across the region. This will result in slightly less humid conditions today, with highs warming into the lower 90s.
1012 AM EDT Wed May 18 2022 Weak gradient exists across the area as central FL is between two high pressure centers over the Gulf and central Atlantic and a frontal boundary to the north. This is producing a light and variable wind flow in the lower levels that will allow the east and west coast sea breeze boundaries to push inland through the afternoon.
High temperatures will be considerably cooler than they were yesterday. with readings reaching the lower to middle 70s. Highs will generally be confined to the lower to middle 70s. A cold front will remain well to the northwest, with convection possibly initiating along this boundary and moving southeastward Thursday evening.
144 PM MDT Wed May 18 2022 Most recent surface analysis shows low pressure sitting over eastern ND, with a weak cold front stretching from northeastern SD through southwestern SD. Lows tonight remain mild, in the 40s and low 50s, ahead of a stronger cold front that will be moving through the region Thursday.
A stacked low pressure system over southeast Manitoba has initiated scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon from the Red River Valley into the rest of northwest and west central Minnesota. A deepening upper trough/low over the Northern Plains is expected to bring widespread rain to the region on Thursday.
Cold frontal timing looks to be early Thursday morning, with the best potential for light showers with the system lying south of the Missouri River. Windy conditions will rule thanks to the developing cyclone.
The warm front will align with the strongest moisture transport and warm air advection, thus creating a favorable area for storm initiation. 3 to just under 1 inch, with the highest amounts in SE Minnesota and central Wisconsin. After this primary round of precipitation, more storms or showers could develop along the cold front as it passes over the area. In wake of the cold front heading into the weekend, cooler conditions are anticipated with a broad upper-level trough moving in from the west. The NAEFS and ECMWF ENS would place these values in the lowest 1 to 2.
(Tonight) Weak cold front / remnant outflow boundary extends across NE OK and near the MO/NW AR border region where a corridor of Cu has recently developed.
245 PM CDT Wed May 18 2022 An upper level closed low over the Baja of California will steadily move east across northern old Mexico tonight and tomorrow. H85 temperatures today will be in the upper 20's(C), and even warmer tomorrow, probably at or just over 30C for tomorrow.
(Tonight) High pressure remains anchored over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico this afternoon, with southerly flow persisting across the region. Despite high clouds from storms to our north, temps have risen into the upper 80s and will climb a few more degrees this afternoon, with highs expected to reach into the lower 90s across portions of the area.
Perhaps the biggest story in the short term forecast period is the warmer than average temperatures that will approach record breaking territory. Thursday, high temperatures will range from the low to upper 90s across the forecast area, 10 to 14 degrees above normal.
As high pressure weakens overhead, wind speeds will increase today and become gusty. Lows will reach the low to mid 70s and patchy fog could develop in rural and low lying areas during the early morning hours before dissipating after sunrise.
That said, a strong low level return flow will develop as lower pressures over Central America and high pressure over the western Atlantic strength.
Issued by National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 1245 PM CDT Wed May 18 2022 Ridge axis along the Gulf Coast will help to keep temperatures warm and convection limited today and Thursday. Despite rather juicy low-levels early this afternoon, with dewpoints in the lower to mid 70s along and south of I-10, much drier air is expected to mix down through the afternoon. This, along with large-scale subsidence associated with the ridge should keep afternoon storms very limited in coverage, especially the further inland you go. The ridge will keep the weather warm and dry again for the afternoon, with temperatures rising into the lower to mid 90s.
1053 AM MDT Wed May 18 2022 Current surface analysis shows low pressure over northern ND, with a weak cold front stretching southwest into eastern MT. Lows tonight will be in the 40s and 50s, ahead of a strong cold front to the northwest.
At the surface, weak and dry high pressure over the area this evening will push into MN by daybreak Thursday. At 12Z Thursday low pressure will be over southwestern Saskatchewan, with an additional low over western SD.
1236 PM CDT Wed May 18 2022 Key Messages: - Rain exiting the area later this morning - Strong to severe storms possible Thursday - Much cooler this weekend Rain showers moving out: Widespread rain showers moved across the area during the overnight hours and will continue to slide east this morning. Later today a short wave trough passes by to the north over Lake Superior providing precip chances for Clark and Taylor counties this evening.
Broad ridging remains positioned to our southwest while a few disturbances continue to ripple east over the Mid Mississippi River Valley into the Ohio Valley Regions. A weak warm front stretched from near Memphis, TN southeast to near Dothan in the Wiregrass Region. Highs will range from the lower 90s north to the mid 90s south. Little change in the overall pattern is expected overnight as mid-level ridging remains to our southwest. highs will be in the lower 90s areawide.
Low temperatures overnight will generally be in the low to mid 70s inland and in the upper 70s near the coasts.
Some additional activity remains possible mainly west of I-35 through early this evening, although much of it may consist of virga given the high-based nature of this convection with very dry present air in the lowest 5 km.
as the synoptic pattern over the CONUS transitions to cyclonic flow aloft /broad upper troughing/. Thu-Thu night: A more substantial /robust/ lee cyclone (~985 mb) will develop in eastern CO on Thu. Breezy SW-WSW winds will abruptly shift to the N-NE during the late aft/eve as an evaporatively-cooled airmass -- emanating from precipitation in the lee of the northern Rockies -- surges southward along the lee of the central Rockies, manifesting as an effective cold frontal passage in the 00-03Z time frame. With SW-WSW low-level flow (in advance of the effective cold front) maintaining a dry airmass over the region.
The airmass in the wake of the anticipated MCV on Thu is expected to be stable with warmer conditions anticipated.
Subsidence behind this feature has resulted in partial clearing, which has helped boost afternoon temps into the lower to middle 70s across the western half of the KILX CWA. Clouds/showers will fade away toward midnight as a bubble of high pressure builds into the area. Given the sunshine and increasing southerly winds, high temperatures will climb into the lower to middle 80s. A weak warm front is progged to lift northward toward the area late in the day, triggering a few showers and thunderstorms.
Issued by National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 213 PM CDT Wed May 18 2022 Ridge axis along the Gulf Coast will help to keep temperatures warm and convection limited today and Thursday. Despite rather juicy low-levels early this afternoon, with dewpoints in the lower to mid 70s along and south of I-10, much drier air is expected to mix down through the afternoon. This, along with large-scale subsidence associated with the ridge should keep afternoon storms very limited in coverage, especially the further inland you go. The ridge will keep the weather warm and dry again for the afternoon, with temperatures rising into the lower to mid 90s. An upper-level ridge will traverse eastward as an upper-level trough will generally hold steady to the west.
This afternoon: Clear skies over the region with temperatures warming through the mid 80s en route to the lower 90s across much of the area. The warm front associated with it will remain well north of our area, which should focus convection further up the East Coast. Given the high instability, high lapse rates aloft, and deep shear, any storms that do develop will bring strong, possibly damaging winds.
253 PM CDT Wed May 18 2022 Tonight and Thursday: Warmer than normal and dry through the period. This moisture increase was already contributing to a weak cu field as seen on visible satellite that was likely being suppressed by the mid level ridge across the region from the southwest. Ridging surface and aloft was allowing for enough insolation for temperatures to climb into the middle 90s. The warmer than normal temperatures will continue tonight with morning lows only bottoming out in the upper 60d to lower 70s.
Additionally, strong lapse rates, sizable CAPE between -10C and -30C, and low freezing levels supports a hail threat as well. Diegan Chattanooga Airport, TN 67 92 69 92 71 / 10 30 10 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 67 88 69 92 69 / 20 50 20 10 0 Oak Ridge, TN 66 88 67 91 69 / 20 50 20 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 62 83 63 91 64 / 60 50 20 10 0.
However, have stayed the course, with highs ranging from the mid/upper 80s NE Alabama, middle Tennessee, the higher terrain and places close to large bodies of water, to near and lower 90s central and western areas. The cold front moves a bit further southeast towards the area tonight into Thursday, but stalls north of the area.
Model soundings are also showing dry air in the low levels, with the 12Z GFS sounding at KIWD for 00Z tonight even failing to reach saturation. Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb trough in the northern Rockies and Pacific NW 12z Thu. This trough will move into the northern plains 12z Fri. In the extended, the GFS and ECMWF show a deep and broad 500 mb trough over the western half of the U. with a ridge over the eastern U. The gusts up to 30kt should be observed mainly at the high obs platforms.
This afternoon: Clear skies over the region with temperatures warming through the mid 80s en route to the lower 90s across much of the area.
Otherwise overnight lows remain in the 40's, much warmer than last night thanks to the cloud cover and slightly milder southerly winds. Warmer with Fairly Active Weather then Turning Cooler.
An area of low pressure will cross the Northland this afternoon. Convective activity should rapidly decrease this evening giving a quiet night, but a warm front will lift north on Thursday bringing a threat for more strong to severe storms across the region though mainly over NW WI towards evening. High PWAT values near an inch will support a bit of a heavy rain threat, but with such high shear think that most storms will be clipping along pretty good, but there is a slight training threat as storms slide parallel down the warm front with strong forcing and ascent across NW WI.
238 PM EDT Wed May 18 2022 High pressure will build into the region tonight then slide east of the area early Thursday. Weak low pressure will approach Thursday afternoon and cross south of the area Thursday evening.
121 PM EDT Wed May 18 2022 Rain showers this afternoon and overnight will be followed by mainly dry conditions and much warmer temperature the remainder of the week. Scattered showers will continue through the afternoon with increasing ascent in warm, moist advection ahead of an approaching warm front. Showers will diminish Thursday morning following the passage of a weakening cold front. Generally dry weather is then expected as the upper level pattern amplifies, and ridging builds across the Upper Ohio Valley region.
While weak ridging will dominate aloft tonight, by tomorrow, the upper level flow will start to become more southwest. The area will remain on the western side of the Atlantic ridge. Highs tomorrow will be around to a touch cooler then today (particularly across the Florida counties) with highs in the mid 80s near the coast to mid 90s inland.
1235 PM CDT Wed May 18 2022 The main cold front was located across northern OK into central MO. The main forecast focus in the short term will be thunderstorm chances across north central Ne this afternoon and evening, followed by much warmer temperatures Thursday ahead of an advancing cold front. Highs today from near 80 north to the low to mid 80s southwest.
The main east-west storm track will prevail to our north, from southern Missouri to the lower Ohio River valley.
Temperatures as of 3 PM were generally in the lower to mid 80s. The main feature of note in the near term was a cold front stretching from northeast to southwest across SD and into the NE panhandle, quite evident on visible satellite imagery. Therefore, bumped up highs a bit to reach the lower 90s in most of the area, with slightly cooler temperatures as you go farther east into IA where there could be a little more cloud cover. Heading into late afternoon, the aforementioned low will be dragging a cold front into the area, and given the warm, moist airmass in place, could see some storm development along/ahead of said boundary.
A weak boundary extended south/southwest from the low across western Kentucky. This appears to be more of a concern as energy from overnight Plains storm activity interacts with a weak warm frontal boundary as it lifts north through the area.
Warmer & more muggy conditions expected on Thursday.