Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Otherwise, post-cold front rain showers will continue to propagate east this morning and into the afternoon with the greatest rainfall chances across the Arrowhead of Minnesota. Summary: Generally cooler and dry-ish weather through the week. Thereâs a fair amount of shear (50+ kts) and CAPE (500 to 1000 J/kg) to work with, but dry air in the lower atmosphere will reduce precipitation amounts and the inverted V soundings will likely make the showers quite gusty. The WI side should miss out on the shower activity with the vort max lifting north into Canada and therefore will have lower humidity, less clouds, and warmer temperatures. With no significant forcing mechanisms for much of the forecast just expect blah weather with periods of light shower activity and cooler temperatures. Sunshine should be prevalent under weak high pressure.
All indicators are that pops are a little on the high side.
Light rain showers are currently moving across the southern CWA as a sharp short wave trough rotates around the upper low that is now over Lake Manitoba. Temperatures today in the 50s and 60s with the cooler temperatures across the north with the higher cloud cover and light showers. The upper ridge will amplify over the Canadian Rockies by Sunday, bringing more NW flow aloft and drier weather moving into the area.
Synoptic-scale flow attenuates with southward extent into the southern Great Plains, modulated by the sub-tropical ridge expanding across the eastern Pacific Ocean with a subsidence layer evident over the Desert Southwest into the southern Rocky Mountains. Sincavage A cold front will approach the forecast area Sunday afternoon despite upper level ridging building in from the southwest as a sharp upper level trough moves eastward across the Missouri Valley. Temperatures will soar underneath the increasing heights and south of the cold front with highs 100+ likely east of the Caprock on the South Plains south of Highway 114.
849 AM MDT Sat May 14 2022 With northeast Montana on the periphery influence of the departing plains cyclone, expect a few showers to bubble up and move SE across the NE zones this afternoon. TFJ Deep low pressure system continues to gradually lift northward with showers slowly dissipating across the northeast corner of the state. Proximity of the low will keep winds strong enough for lake wind advisory across Fort Peck Lake for today. Upper ridge building over the northern Rockies will bring warmer temperatures as it spreads east and flattens over the next few days. As flow becomes more cyclonic with Pacific trof moving onshore, showers will occasionally spread across the state.
Isolated showers are still possible in the northern valley into Devils Lake Basin through the afternoon as low pressure moves through Canada. Light rain showers are currently moving across the southern CWA as a sharp short wave trough rotates around the upper low that is now over Lake Manitoba. Temperatures today in the 50s and 60s with the cooler temperatures across the north with the higher cloud cover and light showers. The upper ridge will amplify over the Canadian Rockies by Sunday, bringing more NW flow aloft and drier weather moving into the area.
506 AM EDT Sat May 14 2022 Low pressure moves up from the southeast today bringing mountain showers this morning then afternoon and evening storms.
BW Chattanooga Airport, TN 84 64 87 64 86 / 40 30 20 10 30 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 81 62 85 63 82 / 40 20 30 10 40 Oak Ridge, TN 81 61 85 62 82 / 40 20 30 20 40 Tri Cities Airport, TN 78 58 81 58 78 / 50 30 40 10 50.
/NF/ Today and Tonight: There may be a few patches of fog around early this morning, but yesterday's rain overturned the atmosphere enough to clear out some of the low-level moisture. With the upper-level low pressure system lifting out of the Southeast and sliding up the East Coast today, flow over our forecast area is becoming more northwesterly. /NF/ Sunday and Sunday night: Even with the departure of the Southeast Coast upper low this weekend, we'll remain in primarily north to northwest flow aloft as a mid/upper trough persists just to our east. However, upper troughing over the Midwest will begin to nudge a cold front southward through the Ohio Valley.
The stacked low mentioned in the short term discussion above will finally push east on Sunday as upper level ridging moves into the region from the west.
We will see multiple waves swing around the upper low over southern Canada that will bring us some small chances for rain.
The mid-level low that has lingered around the southeastern United States will weaken and be reabsorbed into the larger-scale trough over the eastern portion of the country as we enter the weekend. Cooler air aloft with an approaching mid-level disturbance could support strong thunderstorms if convection develops and is able to tap into that environment.
649 AM EDT Sat May 14 2022 An upper level low pressure system will lift north through our area today, providing a good chance for showers and thunderstorms with locally heavy rain this afternoon.
A cold front, associated with a low pressure system over Manitoba, will drift southeast through the forecast area this afternoon.
524 AM MDT Sat May 14 2022 Current surface analysis shows low pressure over southern Manitoba, moving northeast of the region.
Clouds and cooler, somewhat more comfortable conditions were observed across eastern Iowa, northwest Illinois and far northeast Missouri early this morning as a weak cold front traversed the area last evening. 2) Precip chances return tonight ahead of another cold front. [Discussion] Weak high pressure following the cold front from yesterday will be the primary influencer of our weather today. Expect PM highs in the low to mid 80s. There is a slight chance of a rain shower mainly late this afternoon ahead of a second cold front, but think the mixing of dry air will keep most precip free.
1017 AM EDT Sat May 14 2022 An upper level low pressure system will lift north through our area today, providing a good chance for showers and thunderstorms with locally heavy rain this afternoon.
/issued 305 AM EDT Sat May 14 2022/ An upper trough from the Great Lakes to the eastern Gulf of Mexico slips to along the eastern seaboard late Sun as a ridge from northwest Mexico to the Four-Corners regions builds north as it eases to the east. weak high pressure sprawls across the Gulf of Mexico while Atlantic high pressures extends to the FL-NC coastal waters. with the higher coverage inland. Mon through Fri: The upper level trough continues over the area until midweek then is replaced by somewhat flat ridging moving in from the west. Atlantic high pressure builds in across FL to the Gulf of Mexico early in the week and resides in place.
High pressure will build over the region tonight and last through most of Sunday, so temperatures will rise to around 5-10 degrees above normal or upper 60s-low 70s in most of the valleys.
Temperatures trend warmer this weekend, with mid 70s to mid 80s today, then mid to upper 80s on Sunday. High pressure continues to build up from the southwest today, which will result in additional warming across the CWA.
Cooler air looks to spread in Sunday with the passage of an upper level trough/cold front, and should hang around through at least mid week with the upper level flow trending zonal/broad-flat ridging.
The upper level ridge anchored over the Baja coast will further amplify today placing us under a north-northwesterly flow aloft. As we head through the day, a weak H5 disturbance will rotate through the periphery of the ridge across West Texas. The ridge continues to shift east on Sunday which will unfortunately allow temperatures to tick up a couple of degrees.
656 AM EDT Sat May 14 2022 Low pressure moves up from the southeast today bringing mountain showers this morning then afternoon and evening storms.
Outside of that, everyone will see a mostly sunny day with warmer temperatures today compared to yesterday.
235 AM PDT Sat May 14 2022 High pressure aloft will keep the weather quite warm this weekend, with gradual cooling spreading inland from the coast on Sunday.
448 AM MDT Sat May 14 2022 Deep low pressure system continues to gradually lift northward with showers slowly dissipating across the northeast corner of the state. Proximity of the low will keep winds strong enough for lake wind advisory across Fort Peck Lake for today. Upper ridge building over the northern Rockies will bring warmer temperatures as it spreads east and flattens over the next few days. As flow becomes more cyclonic with Pacific trof moving onshore, showers will occasionally spread across the state. Showers will continue to lift northeast gradually through the morning with the departing low pressure system.
Temperatures are generally mild early this morning, running about 10 to 15 degrees warmer when compared to 24 hours ago.
A bit of moisture in the flow combined with orographic lift will be enough to squeeze out scattered mountain snow showers during the morning hours for the western and northwestern ranges; however, snow accumulations will generally be limited to only a few inches even at the highest elevations.
Later tonight and much of Sunday should be precip-free and unseasonably warm as we await the arrival of a stronger mid level short wave and the associated cold front/convection.
623 AM CDT Sat May 14 2022 A cold front currently draped over central South Dakota will push into the forecast area this morning, turning the winds to out of the northwest. Soundings show dry low levels Saturday evening so do think that it will take some time to saturate the low levels before rain reaches the surface. Locations south of I-90 have the highest chance for seeing accumulating rain as a mid level wave will provide lift via positive vorticity advection in this area.
- Cooler on Sunday with clouds and lingering rain.
The remnants of a closed upper cyclone situated across the southeastern Atlantic states for the last couple of days will transition into an open trough today as it lifts slowly northeastward through the central Appalachians. Based on latest trends in temps, we have increased highs into the mid 80s for most of the area, which coupled with dewpoints in the lower 60s will support MLCAPE in the 1500-2500 J/kg range. However, both deep-layer shear and general flow throughout the lower-troposphere remain weak, which should result in unorganized /slow-moving cells capable of producing brief wind gusts in the 40-50 MPH range and perhaps some small hail.
Upper level troughing over the eastern CONUS prevails during the near term period with upper level ridging persisting to our west centered over Mexico. A couple of weak disturbances have been rounding this ridge and the base of the upper level trough bringing more focused chances for precipitation to the forecast area which will be detailed below. At the surface, rather diffuse high pressure exists across the Gulf of Mexico which continues to promote surface northerlies over the region helping to maintain upper 50's to lower 60's dewpoints during the afternoon hours each day.
This Evening Through Saturday Broad upper ridge to nearly zonal flow remains over the western US behind the long wave trof over the upper Mississippi valley.
Sunday, the upper-level ridge centered over Baja Sur is forecast to strengthen, increasing thicknesses and pushing afternoon highs into the triple digits most locations.
High pressure over the interior will peak today raising many locations in the valley into the lower 90s.
Tonight and Sunday Mid to high clouds have begun working their way into central Wisconsin this afternoon, ahead of the weak cold front. Temperatures will be cooler on Sunday behind the cold front passage today, but will likely still be in the 70s.
140 PM EDT Sat May 14 2022 Low pressure moves up from the southeast today with afternoon and evening storms.
(The rest of today ) Our area lies in W to NW flow aloft on the northeastern periphery of a large mid-level high pressure over Cabo San Lucas.
SR Chattanooga Airport, TN 64 87 64 86 59 / 40 30 30 30 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 62 85 63 82 56 / 40 30 40 40 0 Oak Ridge, TN 61 85 62 82 56 / 30 30 40 40 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 58 81 58 78 53 / 20 50 40 50 0.
1035 AM CDT Sat May 14 2022 Scattered thunderstorms are possible this afternoon over eastern IL, as a weak cold front pushes through the area. A stronger cold front will bring more showers and storms to the region Sunday afternoon and evening.
1035 AM CDT Sat May 14 2022 The remnants of a closed upper cyclone situated across the southeastern Atlantic states for the last couple of days will transition into an open trough today as it lifts slowly northeastward through the central Appalachians. Based on latest trends in temps, we have increased highs into the mid 80s for most of the area, which coupled with dewpoints in the lower 60s will support MLCAPE in the 1500-2500 J/kg range. However, both deep-layer shear and general flow throughout the lower-troposphere remain weak, which should result in unorganized /slow-moving cells capable of producing brief wind gusts in the 40-50 MPH range and perhaps some small hail.
With the better forcing east of the Appalachians, along a 500mb vorticity axis, the highest POPS will be confined along the Appalachian Mountains and nearby foothills.
Temperatures will trend cooler on Sunday along with breezy onshore winds. Summerlike conditions will then persist through much of the upcoming week with seasonably warm temperatures inland while conditions remain cooler, more cloudy near the coast. Onshore flow will increase during the next 24 hours as the mid/upper level ridge responsible for our current inland warmth shifts inland ahead of a mid/upper level trough approaching the Pacific Northwest. Winds to increase in the late morning, helping to dissipate the lower clouds. KSFO Bridge Approach.
Currently, RH values in the upper teens are being observed over the prone areas with southwest winds starting to gust into the low 20s. As deep mixing intensifies ahead of an approaching secondary cold front, could see gusts increase up to 30 mph this afternoon. As the aforementioned cold front moves closer, could see some rain showers form late this afternoon and overspread the UP from west to east.
(This evening through Sunday) Another hot day on tap with mostly sunny skies and temperatures mainly in the lower to mid 90s as of the 2 PM hour. Upper level ridging builds in from northern Mexico putting the clamp on any rain chances. A heat advisory may need to be issued by the night crew if model guidance continues to trend warmer for tomorrow.
1238 PM EDT Sat May 14 2022 Low pressure moves up from the southeast today with afternoon and evening storms.
Temperatures have warmed into the low to mid 60s, so far, and will likely top out in the mid 60s to lower 70s a bit later in the day. The rest of the short term period looks stable/dry with high pressure at the surface over the region, and an upper level ridge slowly building into the northern plains from the west. Upstream ridging with northwest flow to start the period off.
Cooler highs generally in the low 70s are expected with cold advection in the wake of the front. Cooler Sunday Night - Midweek: A pattern shift will favor a return to cooler, more seasonable conditions typical of mid-May as upper level flow turns more northwesterly through midweek.
1156 AM CDT Sat May 14 2022 (The rest of today ) Our area lies in W to NW flow aloft on the northeastern periphery of a large mid-level high pressure over Cabo San Lucas.
High pressure ridging aloft quickly builds in tonight. The high pressure quickly breaks down as a trough moves through the Central mountains in the early evening.
318 PM EDT Sat May 14 2022 GOES-16 visible satellite imagery highlights a relatively mature cumulus cloud line along the Lower Keys. A weak, positively trough over the Florida Peninsula will continue to retrograde southwestward into the Gulf of Mexico this weekend. Meanwhile, in the low levels, high pressure in the Central Atlantic will feed a swath of moisture northward toward the CWA.
A better chance for storms is expected tomorrow as a stronger cold front moves through the area. A washed out cold front positioned from roughly north of Paris to Effingham will slowly sag southward this evening. An upper trough is progged to slide through the Midwest states on Sunday, pushing a stronger cold front through the area and bringing yet another shot at showers and storms. Cooler and drier weather returns for the start of the new week as northwest flow sets up aloft.
Ridging will takes over for Sunday and provide a dry day.
341 PM EDT Sat May 14 2022 Discussion/Marine - Storms end early this evening The primary cold front is moving through Southwest Michigan as I write this. - Second cold front brings showers later Sunday The real cold front (actually brings colder air) comes through Sunday evening.
A cold front will clear the Arrowhead of Minnesota and the remainder of northwest Wisconsin by 21-22Z. Sunday will be a bit cooler for most of the Northland under cyclonic flow, however, with west to northwest winds high temperatures generally in the 60s are expected with good mixing. With efficient mixing, favored the lower edge of forecast guidance for relatively humidity, namely the HRRR.
246 PM CDT Sat May 14 2022 Cold front passed through this morning and early this afternoon, with temperatures dropping a few degrees with its passage. As of 19z, the front has still not crossed Cherokee or Storm Lake where winds remain more westerly and CKP is in the upper 70s and SLB in the lower 80s.
310 PM CDT Sat May 14 2022 Much of the Mid-South is experiencing a much cooler day than the last several days.
1056 AM MDT Sat May 14 2022 Current surface analysis shows low pressure over southern Manitoba, moving northeast of the region.
High pressure building over the Desert Southwest will push temperatures about 10 degrees above normal for mid May through the weekend and the first half of the upcoming week. Low pressure approaching from the north could bring cooler temperatures and increased wind late in the week.
236 PM MDT Sat May 14 2022 High pressure continues to build across the western CONUS as it pushes eastward into the Four Corners, as a weak frontal boundary digs southeasterly across the Great Plains.
216 PM EDT Sat May 14 2022 An upper level low pressure system will lift north through our area today, providing a good chance for showers and thunderstorms with locally heavy rain this afternoon.
Tmrw is our best chance of storms, including strong-svr storms, as a cold front approaches/makes passage.
A weakening cold front is washing out as it continues across the area through the remainder of the afternoon. A bit of a break early overnight before another round is expected along a secondary cold front late tonight, likely moving in after midnight. Otherwise overnight lows are expected to drop into the upper 40's and low 50's as cooler air moves in behind both fronts. Becoming Cooler Sunday, More Showers.
Flow aloft Sunday will turn to the northwest as a ridge sets up over Montana in the morning. Sunday night the aforementioned ridge over Montana continues to move eastward. This will push out the low in southern Canada.
Currently, a cold front has pushed through the area this afternoon, with weak northerly flow in its wake. Add in a sharpening warm frontal boundary near the KS/NE line and an increasing southerly LLJ and elevated thunderstorm development looks increasingly likely overnight. Good dry advection and increasing subsidence aloft (with an upper ridge building into the Plains) should promote ample diurnal mixing tomorrow afternoon.
Temperatures will remain relatively mild overnight, with lows in the lower to mid 60s.
340 PM EDT Sat May 14 2022 A weakening area of low pressure will lift off to the northeast through tonight leaving more typical summer-like weather across the Carolinas with much warmer temperatures and localized shower or thunderstorm activity.
Synoptically, the upper low pressure system that has dominated the weather pattern the last several days has exited the area after being absorbed by a more dominate upper-level jet stream further north. In its wake, leaves only a very weak, upper-level trough axis across the forecast area that will linger and fend off any frontal systems or airmass changes in the short term and keep weak, variable upper-level flow aloft. Max temps today should be near to slightly above normal in the low to mid 80s for most areas and Sunday a bit warmer with much of the area in the mid to upper 80s.
A cold front slides southeast tomorrow afternoon with thunderstorms expected to develop along the front, initially in southeast Kansas and northeast Oklahoma before developing southwest along the front through the late afternoon and evening.
Flow is weak across the area today, between a dying upper low in the Southeast and a poleward lifting midlevel low north of the Dakotas. This will continue within mean northwesterly flow pattern until mid-week when deamplfying ridging nudges in.
High pressure overhead will result in well-above normal high temperatures through the rest of the weekend, with the lower deserts reaching the middle 100s. Latest objective analysis depicts a ridge of high pressure situated overhead. As a result, temperatures across the lower deserts this afternoon should be significantly warmer compared to the highs from yesterday, topping out in the 102-105 degree range across most of the lower deserts. High temperatures on Sunday are still projected to be slightly warmer as the ensembles show the low-levels warming another degree Celsius and thus readings are likely to top out in the 103-107 range.
Visible satellite shows some cumulus developing along the front and a prefrontal trough. A cold front, associated with a low pressure system over Manitoba, will drift southeast through the forecast area this afternoon.
As usual, the high-res NAM and the high-res FV3 are the most aggressive with precipitation development, but the synoptic models and many CAMs are a little more bullish on development, although after the initial development, the GFS seems to develop some convective feedback, so it's QPF seems way too aggressive this evening. These storms could make their way eastward into western Oklahoma (again with some support from the low level jet) before dissipating.
On the other hand, for several days, we have been under a north/northwesterly regime and in between a rather large low pressure system across the south east and ridging to our north. Combined with a larger CAPE profile (1500-2500 J/Kg), strong to severe thunderstorm development may be possible for areas that are able to achieve warmer temperatures or have stronger surface heating. Tomorrow ridging will begin to build in and we will be dry for most of the day Sunday but can't rule out a lingering shower across the southeast during the afternoon hours.
126 PM EDT Sat May 14 2022 Flow is weak across the area today, between a dying upper low in the Southeast and a poleward lifting midlevel low north of the Dakotas. This will continue within mean northwesterly flow pattern until mid-week when deamplfying ridging nudges in.
The main upper level low that's brought unsettled conditions to the region over the last few days will be weakening and moving off to the northeast through Sunday. While this low moves off, an amplifying upper level ridge our west will reinforce cyclonic upper level flow through the region.
146 PM PDT Sat May 14 2022 Ridging aloft will lead to very warm conditions today before onshore winds return for the second half of the weekend, allowing for cooling to spread inland through the mountains on Sunday.
1218 PM CDT Sat May 14 2022 Scattered thunderstorms are possible this afternoon over eastern IL, as a weak cold front pushes through the area. A stronger cold front will bring more showers and storms to the region Sunday afternoon and evening.