Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Ahead of the long wave trough crossing the Rockies will be two short waves. Thermal profiles are indicating that the lower levels could be cold enough for ice pellets (sleet) and some freezing rain in the area east of Bismarck. Synoptic scale models continue to show a progressive pattern with troughing every other day or so in the fast flow. The troughs continue to dig across the south and push east, keeping north Dakota on the northern edge of the action.
634 AM CDT Sat Mar 25 2017 A relatively stagnant upper low centered over the Oklahoma and Kansas border will be slow to move today before a deepening trough upstream finally pushes the storm system northeast by this afternoon. Expecting values ranging from the upper 40s across northwest Missouri, to the lower 60s across central Missouri, where weak warm advection will persist. Overnight lows will also be moderated, though slightly cooler than the previous night with weak CAA, dropping into lower to mid 40s.
A cold front exited the region overnight leaving a weak upper level trough to pass over the area today. The trough will exit to the east tonight bringing an end to the showers this evening. The next weather system will begin to move into the region on Sunday as a warm front spreading precipitation across the forecast area during the day. This means there will be some snow in the higher elevations on Sunday but no significant accumulations.
The combination of poor mixing winds and strong inversion should keep the low stratus locked in. A warm front over the western Dakotas will bring increasing southerly winds to the Missouri Valley.
/Issued 414 AM EDT Sat Mar 25 2017/ Expect enhanced southerly moisture transport to allow for midlevel cloud deck today (possible breaks here and there), though the approaching cutoff trough to the west and upper level vorticity advection will ramp up shower chances by this evening.
A trough of low pressure will cross the state today bringing slightly cooler temperatures and a chance of rain showers mainly from Flagstaff northward.
H100-H70 ridge axis centered off the Carolina Coast extending SW to the Yucatan Peninsula will gradually weaken today as it is eroded by a short wave trof to its north, and a well dvlpd storm system to its west. Position of the ridge will maintain a steady E/SE flow that will tap a fairly dry/stable airmass. Lcl pressure gradient will slacken as the aforementioned ridge weakens over the W Atlc, resulting in diminishing sfc winds. High pressure centered off the Carolina Coast will maintain a moderate to fresh E/SE breeze thru the aftn. Lcl pgrad will relax as the ridge slowly weakens.
Gwinner dropped to about a quarter of a mile in fog, being the lowest vsby in the FA. However, the low clouds do not appear to be moving all that much yet. The clouds will also play somewhat into the temperature forecast, but really do not have a good feel for how the low clouds will evolve today.
630 AM CDT Sat Mar 25 2017 Upper level trough/closed 500 mb low sits over the southern plains early this morning, progged to take a somewhat slow trek northeast into the eastern great lakes by Sunday night. All that said, still have the upper level low and its various ripples/spokes of energy to rotate across the region for today and Sunday. Southern stream looks fairly active, with both the GFS and the EC moving at least two 500 mb troughs from the desert southwest to the oh valley/great lakes regions.
As an upper level low centered over far eastern Oklahoma moves further to the east, a weak cold front surging south has pushed off the Escarpment. The upper level trough moves out into the Central and Southern Plains on Sunday with a stronger pressure gradient causing some locally breezy winds and mixing out the stratus by midday.
So as the low pressure swings northeast from Arkansas through Missouri, it should provide enough forcing for us to see storms develop/strengthen from 1pm to 6pm over the west. It doesn't look like there will be a whole lot of eastward movement to this afternoon's wave of storms as the low pressure heads north.
1252 PM EDT Sat Mar 25 2017 High pressure will shift to our east today ahead of a front that will move into our region late tonight and Sunday. Moisture will be on the increase through tonight associated with an onshore flow circulating around offshore high pressure and a weak cold front approaching from the west. Increased moisture and an eroding cap may lead to showers in the west section late tonight ahead of the upper trough. The higher temperature guidance may be better tonight because of mixing and cloudiness ahead of the weak front. An upper low will lift northeastward toward the southern Great Lakes region tonight and into Sunday while gradually weakening.
Morning hourly trends were tweaked toward the much warmer NAM and high res models in conjunction with current observations. With the Upper Ohio firmly entrenched under the ridge/warm sector, warm high-temperatures can again be expected with readings about 20 degrees above the averages forecast, with only minor moderation projected along the I 80 counties as the aforementioned front sags toward/across that area.
This system and its associated upper low pressure will lift northeast through Missouri today and towards west central Illinois by tonight.
612 AM CDT Sat Mar 25 2017 An upper low pressure system in eastern Oklahoma early this morning will lift northeast into Missouri today.
Deep southerly flow continues to draw unseasonably warm and increasingly moist air into the Ohio Valley, ahead of a closed and stacked low pressure system over Oklahoma. The low will lift NE across Missouri today and tonight, with the warm conveyor belt slowly translating eastward across Kentucky. Still looking at categorical POPs tonight as the negatively-tilting upper trof axis pushes in. Upper low slowly makes its way into the Great Lakes on Sunday, so will hang on to lingering high POPs through the day as we remain under the cold pool with ample low-level moisture. Pattern remains fairly progressive through the week, with a series of bowling-ball lows ejecting out of the Southwest and being guided ENE across the Ohio Valley, over the top of flat ridging in the southeast CONUS.
Winds will be southeasterly and the synoptic flow should be about 10 mph with higher gusts, however with interior temperatures rising into the mid to upper 80s and sea surface temperatures of 60 to 65 we will have a 20 to 25 degree temperature differential between the land mass and marine environment which will reinforce the winds as far inland as Trail Ridge/U. If this occurs it could lead to spotting of fires between the ocean and trail Ridge/U.
/Issued 531 AM CDT Sat Mar 25 2017/ Weather across the OK and TX Panhandles should be rather tranquil today and tonight as brief upper level ridging translates across the srn high plains. A dry cold front will also track through the area on Sunday with northwest to north winds in the breezy category.
Highs will be 10-15 degrees cooler on Sunday behind the front and with widespread cloud cover.
Otherwise, current forecast is on track with isolated to scattered showers developing later today in Oregon and western-most Idaho under eastward-moving upper trough.
643 AM CDT Sat Mar 25 2017 Early morning water vapor imagery indicated that deep slow moving mid-level cyclone was located over northeast OK. Short term models are in good agreement this morning in taking this low across MO over the next 24 hours. The 07Z objective surface analysis indicates that the ridge axis extends from western MN into western NEb.
With the upper low over SE Kansas sliding eastward today, it's possible that slightly deeper moisture just south of the CWA could rotate north and then back westward later this afternoon and into the overnight hours. Have backed off a bit on the fog mention, as conditions may be very similar to those of tonight, with the lowest visibility (AOA 2 miles) over the Buffalo Ridge. With light east to northeast flow remaining throughout the day, may be difficult to scour out the low level moisture.
Early this morning, a slow moving upper level low was located over the central United States.
we will continue to watch how far the low- level moisture gets scrubbed across Texas as the cold front is now within a few miles of the Texas gulf coast. As large upper low cont to pull east this morning, could have a few lingering showers across northeast parts of the area. Otherwise, anticipate a quieter day today with diminishing northwest winds and cooler temperatures.
1142 AM EDT Sat Mar 25 2017 Low pressure is situated just west of the mid Mississippi River Valley with a trailing cold front/line of convection. Southerly flow will continue to bring low level moisture northward with warmer than normal temperatures today. /Issued 414 AM EDT Sat Mar 25 2017/ Expect enhanced southerly moisture transport to allow for midlevel cloud deck today (possible breaks here and there), though the approaching cutoff trough to the west and upper level vorticity advection will ramp up shower chances by this evening.
This convection lifted into the Midsouth earlier this morning, ahead of an upper low centered over eastern OK. This upper low will lift into southern MO by late afternoon, driving additional midlevel height falls and likely a second linear convective line into the Midsouth. With the upper low in closer proximity, colder air aloft will increase an initially low severe hail threat.
with weaker storms driven by low amplitude upper level troughs. The showers will diminish through this evening as a flat ridge builds over the area.
Early this morning an upper level low was located across northeast OK. The upper low will track northeast across MO Today and Tonight. As the upper low moves farther northeast across central and northeast MO, the residual moisture and ascent will shift east of the CWA, bringing an end to the precipitation.
Low-level SSE flow quickly re-establishes this evening as surface ridging rebounds in the Gulf. TX again as the surface cyclone deepens.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 76 57 73 57 / 40 100 70 30 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 75 56 70 56 / 10 90 80 40 Oak Ridge, TN 75 55 71 56 / 10 90 80 40 Tri Cities Airport, TN 74 52 68 53 / 10 40 80 40.
As a result, POPs should slowly diminish from west to east this afternoon but not go away completely due to the proximity of the surface/upper lows combined with wrap- around moisture pinching off the dry slot.
An upper low over northeast Oklahoma early this morning, will slowly eject eastward today, reaching central Missouri by 06Z tonight. A few small clusters of showers should linger mainly to the east of I-135 today, as vort lobes pinwheel around the upper low circulation. The next upstream upper trough approaching southern California, per 6. Combined with moderate- strong ascent with the upper trough, this should result in a fairly widespread convective rainfall occurring mainly in the south.
Satellite/radar imagery shows cold core upper low currently moving into southwest MO.
709 AM CDT Sat Mar 25 2017 Larger band of showers and storms has shifted eastward into eastern MO this morning with another area of storms developing over northeast OK / southeast KS underneath the cutoff low pressure system affecting the region. Stronger storms developed further to the south over central AR / Northern LA in the vicinity of a 50 knot low level jet and low level moist axis over the lower Miss Valley. As the upper low moves along the Interstate 44 corridor, cooler mid level temperatures will destabilize the region, especially during the afternoon.
619 AM CDT Sat Mar 25 2017 Cold front was moving into the Houston metro area at 11Z. A weak cold front that extends from near paris to Waco to Ozona will continue to push east and should move into SE TX prior to sunrise.
915 AM EDT Sat Mar 25 2017 High pressure will build down from central Canada today into tonight and crest over the region on Sunday.
The upper pattern is defined by a closed upper low over KS/MO, a trough moving through the Great Basin, and a longwave ridge of high pressure in the Eastern Pacific. Southeast Arizona resides on the southern periphery of the trough, with a the latest satellite imagery indicating a wedge of high clouds moving west to east across the region.
/issued 744 AM CDT Sat Mar 25 2017/ For the 25/12Z TAF period, the upper level trough which contributed to widespread thunderstorms last evening continues to pivot NE away from the region while associated cold front advances slowly through the rest of our eastern-most terminals this morning. Winds will be trending more W/SW in the wake of the front with speeds averaging around 10 kts today before going lgt/vrbl overnight with the front stalling and lifting back north as a warm front toward the end of the TAF period.
1236 PM EDT Sat Mar 25 2017 High pressure will build down from central Canada today into tonight and crest over the region on Sunday.
915 AM MDT Sat Mar 25 2017 Splitting Pacific upper level trough continues to progress east across the western US this morning with surface frontal boundary now extending from eastern MT SW along the MT/WY/ID border.
924 AM EDT Sat Mar 25 2017 High pressure surface and aloft remains anchored over the Florida peninsula.
820 AM EDT Sat Mar 25 2017 High pressure will shift to our east today ahead of a front that will move into our region late tonight and Sunday. Moisture will be on the increase through tonight associated with an onshore flow circulating around offshore high pressure and a weak cold front approaching from the west. Increased moisture and an eroding cap may lead to showers in the west section late tonight ahead of the upper trough. The higher temperature guidance may be better tonight because of mixing and cloudiness ahead of the weak front. An upper low will lift northeastward toward the southern Great Lakes region tonight and into Sunday while gradually weakening.
A weak upper level ridge will build over the region, dropping off the showers, but onshore flow will continue to bring in clouds and keep the area cool.
145 AM CDT SAT AUG 13 2016 Surface map at 06Z shows the Bermuda High off to our east and a cold front coming together west of the Mississippi River.
Heavy rain potential will exist through at least the near term with very high PWATs, tall freezing levels, and steering flow parallel to the the boundary.
Much of this activity should remain confined to the higher elevations of the East TN mountains with minimal activity across the valley and will keep TAFs dry for now.
High pressure will slide across the northern plains today with upper ridge pushing through the Pacific Northwest. Dry conditions with light winds expected with temperatures a little warmer due to sunny skies. An upper disturbance tracks along the Canadian border on Sunday, flattening the ridge. Given there is expected to be modest low level return flow with the high moving east, and the persistent easy storm development this summer, will trend pops toward storms for Sunday afternoon and evening.
As the ridge builds across the region north of our area today, we will pick up a nice northerly flow at H5, turning to NE flow at H7 with some hints of easterly flow below that.
Excessive heat conditions will impact the lower to middle Susquehanna Valley through the weekend with apparent temperatures of 100 to 108 degrees during the afternoon and early evening. Muggy conditions with clear partly cloudy skies prevail early today thanks to a weak ridge of high pressure over the state. The threat for heavy rainfall may extend into early in the upcoming week as above normal moisture continues to be directed northeast around prominent subtropical ridge centered over the western Atlantic. Boosted pops for showers and sctd TSRA by about 10-20 percent (and into the low likely range) in the Tues night- Wed period - closer to NBM pops.
Better chance for thunderstorms on Saturday as an upper level trough moves across the high plains. Kept POP between 20 to 35 percent mainly along and east of the Laramie Range and expect showers/tstorms to form in the mountains and ridges early-mid afternoon. Temperatures may be a few degrees warmer compared to today. Drier and warmer conditions are expected on Sunday as a flat ridge axis moves into the central Rocky's. and near 90 over the lower elevations.
It will be much cooler with temperatures mainly in the 70s today but a return to warmer temperatures on Sunday. Low pressure will cross the region midweek. The backdoor cold front has successfully pushed as far south as southern NH and will become stationary today. To the north of the front a cool east to northeast flow will keep temperatures much cooler today except for the extreme southwest corner of NH where they may remain south of the boundary in the warm sector. Even though PWATS remain high we are not expecting any flooding problems as much of the convection will be dampened by the low level cool onshore flow. The short wave to the west approaches in the southwest flow aloft tonight and Sunday pushing the stalled front over southernmost areas of NH to move north as a warm front.
317 AM CDT SAT AUG 13 2016 A weak cold front is currently making its way southeast across the forecast area. It should be slightly cooler and less humid behind the front today, which includes roughly the northwest 2/3 of the forecast area.
A cold front will keep winds from the north/northeast through the TAF period and drier air behind the front will keep TS Saturday mainly near FST. /issued 206 PM CDT FRI AUG 12 2016/ The recently advertised cold front was moving thru the PB/SE NM ahead of schedule and water vapor imagery shows a plume of rich moisture streaming overhead. High temps will cool to 85-90 Sat/Sun with lows mostly in the 65-70, and thereafter highs will climb back to the low to mid 90s.
Showers and thunderstorms will continue until a cold front slowly crosses the area on Sunday.
347 AM CDT SAT AUG 13 2016 A stacked low pressure system continue to crank away along the MB/ON border some 250nm north of the lake of the Woods. with an H5 trof extending southeastward across the MN Arrowhead into northern WI.
High pressure will build over the west coast and into the Great Basin today keeping a northerly mid level flow over Arizona.
Modest warming is expected for Saturday as upper level high pressure continues to build over the area and further compress the marine layer. Then on Sunday, an upper level trough will approach the Northern California coast, resulting in renewed deepening of the marine layer and increase in the onshore winds and coastal stratus.
North to south band of showers currently moving northeast across central sections of the state in region of differential cyclonic vorticity advection ahead of 500 mb short wave trough, with better coverage to the north of the CWA where 700 mb omega and 850 mb convergence are stronger. Skies turn partly cloudy late this afternoon and continue overnight as drier air advects in with high pressure edging into western Wisconsin. Temperatures will dip into the low 60s inland with mid 60s along the lakeshore for lows tonight.
Lots of Coordination tonight among surrounding WFO's and WPC regarding rainfall totals and the placement of the highest accumulation. Lows will be mostly in the low to middle 70s.
Modest warming is expected today as upper level high pressure continues to build over the area and further compresses the marine layer. Then on Sunday, an upper level trough will approach the Northern California coast, resulting in renewed deepening of the marine layer and increase in the onshore winds and coastal stratus. High pressure aloft will continue to build over California today resulting in warmer high temperatures across the district.
256 AM CDT SAT AUG 13 2016 A Broad upper level trough will slowly move east across the upper Midwest into the northern Great Lakes. Surface dewpoints will mix down into the lower to mid 60s this afternoon, which will cause the heat index to be the same as the ambient temperatures during the afternoon hours. Tonight, skies will be mostly clear with lows in the lower to mid 60s. By Sunday, the upper level trough and associated surface front have pushed east and south of the area. An area of high pressure over northeast Kansas will move east throughout the day which will provide dry conditions and light winds throughout the day.
However, the latest trends show that a low level jet on the east side of the low with H850 winds near 40kt is increasing moisture transport and rainfall along the I-55 corridor south of Jackson early this morning. As we go into tonight and Sunday, the continued westward shift of the low will eventually bring an end to the flood threat, but scattered mainly diurnal showers/storms will remain a possibility.
These waves will interact with a weak surface boundary/inverted trough across northern WI this afternoon to produce a few showers and perhaps an isolated thunderstorm given weak instability. Expect clearing skies late this evening and overnight as high pressure builds into the forecast area.
1249 AM CDT SAT AUG 13 2016 Aloft: A broad longwave trof was over the cntrl USA with a ridge along the W Coast. The base of the trof axis will move thru the fcst area tonight establishing NW flow for tomorrow. This high will slide into MT/WY tonight and emerge over the cntrl Plains tomorrow.
The overall pattern we have seen the past few days will continue today with the subtropical ridge axis to our north and a general low level southeasterly flow in place. Temperatures will warm quickly in the drier airmass with highs this afternoon expected to to be mainly in the lower to mid 90s. On Sunday the deeper moisture, precipitable water increasing back to around 2 inches, will overspread the region as a mid level inverted trough moves across the peninsula and into the eastern Gulf by afternoon.
A closed upper low was centered over sern LA along with hvy rain across portions of srn LA. The closed upper low will slowly drift westward today and into Sunday.
258 AM CDT SAT AUG 13 2016 Scattered thunderstorms expected to continue near the Red River Valley of southern OK and northern TX through sunrise near zone of enhanced moisture on tail-end of mid-level trough that will slowly progress east and southeast through the day. In response to passage of mentioned trough. low level ridge will build over region and yield moderate north and northeast winds today. Although dry bulb temperatures will be much cooler than we have seen the past several weeks.
642 AM EDT SAT AUG 13 2016 Bermuda high pressure will be in control of our weather through mid week. Warm mid level temps due to the upper ridge expected to generally reduce diurnal convective coverage to isolated to widely scattered for many areas. However, weak upper energy rotating around the periphery of the upper ridge, combined with a sea breeze, expected to provide chance POPS for the CSRA/S Midlands. Late in the forecast period, Thu/Fri and beyond, models continue to indicate upper trough, surface front, and increasing moisture progressing eastward into our region. Coverage should be minimal given upper ridge overhead and very warm mid levels combined with lower atmospheric moisture.
An upper trough over the region will transition to northwest flow on Saturday as the trough shifts east. Temperatures will be cooler with the trough in place, topping out in the 80s.
High pressure remains east of the region at the surface while drier pocket of air in the mid/upper levels over the Bahamas rotates up the Florida Peninsula and will decrease shower/storm coverage about 10-20% from past days as PWATS fall into the 1. With less storm coverage with see Max Temps climb into the lower to middle 90s inland with heat indices pushing closer to a peak of 105 degrees in some locations. A retrograding upper level low (around 250 mb) will be near Tampa Bay Sunday morning. A pocket of rich upper level moisture on the east side of this low will reside across our area. At the same time, the Bermuda ridge axis will begin to shift north of our area with southerly flow beginning to transition to more of an easterly flow.