Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
635 AM CDT Sat Aug 5 2017 Southerly surface flow on the backside of the high pressure is beginning to surge northward into the area, increasing moisture and cloud cover across the region, as depicted in the IR satellite imagery at 07Z. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are quickly developing across south central South Dakota on the nose of the low- level jet, and WAA, along with the passage of the upper level jet north of the FA. Today will be a dreary and cooler day, with mostly cloudy skies.
1255 PM EDT Sat Aug 5 2017 High pressure over the Ohio Valley will migrate east to the mid- atlantic states by Sunday afternoon. While gradient winds on the north side of the high pressure center will be modest over the southern Great Lakes, some diurnal mixing over the lowest 4000 feet AGL will allow sustained westerly to occasionally northwesterly wind 12 to 15 knots with occasional gusts above 20 knots. Another cold front over Upper Lakes region will move south through northern Lower MI Sunday afternoon and increased return flow will jack up moisture a bit through the column to allow for scattered showers Sunday afternoon. However at that time, should be just enough low level moisture and instability with the thermal trof hanging on over the area and weak cyclonic flow to get scattered to broken cumulus to develop.
High pressure ridge axis across the region will produce a S/SW flow over the region, transporting a band of deeper moisture across northern half of central FLorida. This combined with sufficient daytime heating, with highs reaching the low to mid 90s, should lead to scattered to numerous showers and storms developing across northern areas, spreading east-northeast into the afternoon.
Mid levels have remained relatively dry except in far western and northern areas leading to widespread drizzle across much of central and southern Iowa as temperatures have climbed above freezing east of a line from Mason City through Fort Dodge to Atlantic. Farther south, drizzle and rain are expected to persist ahead of the front with temperatures remaining above freezing. Otherwise, once the front passes, strong west winds and clearing skies are forecast overnight as cooler air arrives. Quiet weather will dominate the next few days, along with temperatures rising above freezing, even into the 50s across the south.
75 - 1 inches for the high end as the line has moved rather quickly across the mid state.
Overall not a huge push of cold air behind the exiting system, so temperatures today be mild with 30s across the north and into the low to mid 40s south with near neutral temperature advection.
Temperatures will top out in the mid 30s today, but given the wind, it will feel considerably cooler. Lows tonight will range from the low 20s north and west to around 30 near the lake.
354 AM CST Sun Feb 25 2018 The big story will be dry and warmer today with westerly downslope winds helping to get Nebraska zones back into the 40s for highs, while north central Kansas could see 50. Low dewpoints with clear skies and light winds should allow temperatures to cool off pretty fast into the teens northwest to the lower and mid 20s elsewhere.
1138 PM CST Sat Feb 24 2018 An upper level trough is spreading across the Plains this afternoon. Ahead of the trough large scale lift resulted in yet another round of widespread moderate to locally heavy rainfall developing across the region this morning into this afternoon. This risk will still be on the low side in south central Missouri as the better instability remains to the south.
330 AM CST Sun Feb 25 2018 Clear skies combined with saturated ground and light winds this morning has resulted in localized fog and freezing fog across parts of northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas. Another upper trough to enter eastern Oklahoma late this afternoon or early evening, however limited moisture in place will likely limit impacts to increased cloud cover.
926 PM MST Sat Feb 24 2018 High pressure sets up over the tri-state area today, following this morning's system.
Westerly flow/warm front will approach and move through the region today and temperatures should climb into the 20s or low 30s.
With the very moist ground after recent rainfall, will keep the mention of patchy fog in the forecast, but it may be late to develop until we get more widespread south winds to start pulling the higher humidity air back north. An area of weak high pressure will settle over Oklahoma overnight, and this will result in generally clear skies with light winds.
/06Z TAFS/ The weak cold front will likely have passed through SAT by 06Z and should be through SSF by around 0615Z. A Pacific cold front is pushing across the southern Edwards Plateau and then over the Hill Country next hour.
315 AM CST Sun Feb 25 2018 Most locations have dipped near or below freezing early this morning with very dry air in place. Winds should not be as strong as yesterday, but temperatures will be slightly warmer.
128 AM EST Sun Feb 25 2018 Near record temperatures will continue tonight, with high pressure centered off the coast bringing warm and moist air into region.
150 AM MST Sun Feb 25 2018 High pressure sets up over the tri-state area today, following this morning's system.
455 AM EST Sun Feb 25 2018 A surface cold front is currently moving across western Kentucky, with the main precipitation shield making steady progress to the east out ahead of the boundary. Highs will be cooler today, ranging from the upper 50s to lower 60s.
120 AM EST Sun Feb 25 2018 Warm front pushes north through the area tonight. Cold front sweeps across Sunday. High pressure brings dry air by Sunday and start to work week. Next low pressure system mid week. Sent an update to remove most PoPs across the lowlands in a lull suggested by the HRRR and latest radar images. Showers will return later tonight as a cold front approaches from the west. Models continue to show the highest rainfall amounts over southeastern Ohio and northern West Virginia, although amounts are toned down compared to previous runs.
1115 PM CST Sat Feb 24 2018 H5 analysis from earlier this morning had a broad trough of low pressure extended from eastern Montana south into western New Mexico. Downstream of the central CONUS trough, high pressure was anchored over southern Florida with a ridge extending from the southeastern states into the upper Mississippi valley. Across the Central and High Plains, a trough of low pressure extended from the western Dakotas into the Nebraska Panhandle. Guidance came in some 10 degrees warmer than what we we're previously forecasting, so will follow the lead of the guidance and push those high temperatures up. AS soon as the sun broke out today, temperatures rapidly rose into the mid 30s, which was ~5 degrees warmer than anticipated.
However all guidance suggests values remaining steady or slowly rising overnight with the incoming warm front and increasing cloud cover.
1040 PM CST Sat Feb 24 2018 /06Z TAFS/ VFR expected for the next 24 hours as dry air filters in behind a cold front. /issued 532 PM CST Sat Feb 24 2018/ /0Z TAFS/ Cold front has pushed through all TAF locations early this evening. Areas that see the clear skies and light winds will see overnight temperatures drop into the low to mid 30s. Areas to the east will see overnight temperatures in the low 40s.
At the surface, the Bermuda High will remain nearly stationary to the northeast of the Bahamas as the upper level ridge bridges across the Florida Peninsula today and into the Gulf of Mexico tonight and tomorrow.
Winds become light southerly as a trough of low pressure moves into the western plains, and the surface dew point depressions are very small. Lows tonight could get pretty chilly in the low lying areas, therefore blended some ARW and NMM values into the consensus which lowers temperatures in low lying terrain.
Currently, low pressure was situated from Wisconsin northwest into northern Minnesota and easter North Dakota.
/issued 657 PM CST Sat Feb 24 2018/ Update to cancel the rest of the High Wind Warning for the Guadalupe Mountains. Therefore, have cancelled the rest of the High Wind Warning. /issued 220 PM CST Sat Feb 24 2018/ An upper trough is over the lee of the Rockies with the base of the trough over the CWA. Strong winds at the base of the trough are mixing downward towards the surface resulting in high winds in the Guadalupe Mountains. The upper trough will lift northeastward and another trough from the Pacific Northwest will move over the region on Sunday. Temperatures on Sunday are expected to be as warm or warmer than today with downslope warming taking place.
An inverted trough extended to the northwest over northern Minnesota and into southeast Manitoba. The secondary trough, overall cyclonic flow, and cold air advection should be able to wring out some lingering snow showers and flurries through this afternoon.
347 AM CST Sun Feb 25 2018 Central Illinois is moving into a period of dry weather in the forecast behind last nights cold front. Gusty west winds to continue as high pressure expands over the Plains and into the Midwest. Behind the cold front this morning, temperatures cool slightly but still above normal for today and tonight as the low is not deep back into the colder air over Canada. Will get the chance to see some sunshine today and stars tonight under the high pressure.
342 AM EST Sun Feb 25 2018 Low pressure tracking through the western Great Lakes will send a frontal boundary eastward toward New England today. This will spread snow, sleet, and freezing rain into parts of New Hampshire and Maine, with a change to rain near the coast.
1048 PM CST Sat Feb 24 2018 Progressive clearing is expected this evening from central into eastern Kansas in the subsidence region behind the departing upper trof. Another upper trof diving southeast from the Pacific Northwest will move across the Rockies tonight and turn eastward over the Plains during Sunday.
Cold front remains north of South Texas but is approaching the area. The cold front will be slow to move across the area, not getting through VCT/ALI until possibly mid-afternoon and toward evening at VCT.
In addition to flooding, gusty west winds will accompany a cold front pushing east through the region this morning.
Yesterday's mid level trough that brought winds and dry air is pushing on toward the Great Lakes. The next trough is moving across the 4-corners and will move over the High Plains later today.
324 AM CST Sun Feb 25 2018 As of early this morning, clear skies and cool temperatures are in place across the region as the strong lead wave and associated cold front have pushed well east of the region. While most of the day will be sunny, an increase in clouds will be noted this afternoon and evening as the base of the primary trough approaches the area.
1157 PM CST Sat Feb 24 2018 For the ArkLaTex, cold front has moved through our terminals with convection post frontal from near KLFK to KMLU. /issued 903 PM CST Sat Feb 24 2018/ As the cold front continues to push south and east this evening taking the heavy rainfall threat with it, have removed all of Northeast Texas and extreme Northwest Louisiana from the Flash Flood Watch which includes Marshall and Carthage, Texas as well as the Shreveport and Bossier City metro area of Louisiana.
A weak disturbance brushing southern Nevada will move toward the Four Corners Region leaving slightly warmer weather and lighter winds for our area Sunday.
1045 PM MST Sat Feb 24 2018 The next fast-moving trough is spreading high clouds across northeast UT and northwest CO late this afternoon. This trough was strengthening over the Great Basin with a strong jet rounding the bottom of the trough and providing good uplift over NE UT. Most of the area will be under the moist and unstable area between the 700 mb and 500 mb trough between midnight and 6 AM.
300 AM CDT Sun Sep 17 2017 Early morning surface map shows our incoming cold front extending from about Kansas City northeast into the Upper Peninsula of Michigan. By afternoon, redevelopment will be taking place east of I-55 as the cold front arrives. The stalling out of the front will prevent any significantly cooler air moving in tonight, although areas near Galesburg may dip into the upper 50s. The upper pattern over Illinois will continue to be out of the southwest much of the week, with the western trough periodically digging southward. Significant amplification of the ridge over the eastern U.
High pressure at the surface and ridging aloft will remain in place across the Lower Ohio Valley through the remainder of the weekend. Tomorrow will be very similar to today with highs in the lower to mid 80s and scattered cloud cover.
These clouds combined with the added low level moisture from the rainfall should keep temperatures a bit warmer tonight. The upper ridge axis over the Gulf South into the lower OH/TN valleys will build a bit further on Sunday into Monday. Outside of any showers, temperatures should warm back into the m-u80s in valley locations, and lower 80s on the highest elevations of the Cumberland Plateau.
250 AM CDT Sun Sep 17 2017 249 AM CDT Post frontal convection continues over central Iowa under the influence of a negatively tilted trough across South Dakota and Minnesota. The trough continues northeast into Canada this morning while the cold front moves through the forecast area this afternoon. With dewpoints already in the low 60s, we should have enough surface moisture to support convection along the front. Rain ends across the forecast area as the cold front pushes southeast tonight. Cooler air will result in low temps in the low 50s near RFD to low 60s along and east of I-55. JEE 249 AM CDT Highs Monday will be cooler in the mid 70s to around 80.
338 AM CDT Sun Sep 17 2017 (Today and Tonight) West Central Texas will generally remain in southwest flow aloft today, with an upper level ridge across the Gulf of Mexico and a broad upper level trough across the western CONUS. Otherwise, expect mainly dry conditions with highs mainly in the low to mid 90s.
High pressure will become centered over the area by midday, then shift slowly toward the upper Mississippi valley early this evening, allowing return flow to develop. Confluence of flow will stream mid and high level moisture eastward across the area, while low levels remain much drier under the influence of the retreating ridge. Some of the higher resolution solutions are hitting rainfall pretty hard across northwest IA, and areas from KYKN-KFSD-KMWM and south are a fairly good signal for lift during the last third to half of the night. Clouds and the increased moisture trends with southerly wind are likely to keep lows around the lower 50s tonight.
Upper trough down the eastern seaboard into FL and Hurricane Jose slowly moving northward in the Western Atlantic will keep dry mid-upper northerly flow over the area while upper ridging gets pushed to the Western Gulf.
315 AM CDT Sun Sep 17 2017 At 2 AM, a cold front extended from Ontonagan Michigan (western Upper Michigan) southeast to Prairie du Chien Wisconsin. Trough looks to deepen some en route, possibly with convective enhancement in CO later today/evening.
323 AM PDT Sun Sep 17 2017 A trough of low pressure will maintain below average high temperatures today. areas of coastal low clouds and patchy fog extending onto the lower coastal mountain slopes this morning. A little warmer on Monday as low pressure weakens.
630 AM EDT Sun Sep 17 2017 High pressure centered east of the region will remain in control across the forecast area today. A weakening cold front will push into the area tonight into Monday, becoming rather stationary by Monday night.
/06Z TAFS/ High pressure remains in control across the region. Mid level ridging should lead to the southeast winds being a couple mph less than the previous 24 hours. In addition, we expect any ongoing convection over the lower Trans Pecos region to remain west of Val Verde county.
459 AM CDT Sun Sep 17 2017 Today through tonight: Latest satellite imagery showed ridging over the region in the lower to upper levels of the atmosphere. However not looking for any strong convection due to weak lapse rates and no organized flow under the ridge. As far as temperatures are concerned it will be above normal with highs in the upper 80s to the lower 90s.
The HRRR has really only been supported by the WRF-NMM and has been consistent run after run today supporting a cluster of thunderstorms initiating near the cold front-dryline intersection in northwest OK, and moving quickly northeast over the areas of Comanche Barber Pratt and Stafford counties between 4 and 7 pm. There is about 30kts of 0-6 km bulk shear, and and LHP value in the lowest bin (still thinking half dollar or slighlty larger size hail for max size), and possibility of locally severe wind gusts. Light and variable or even easterly winds Monday should be replaced by south winds as another warm front develops by Monday night.
There could be a few light showers around today as a low pressure area moves into the Pacific Northwest. The broad trough will continue to sit over the western CONUS through Monday and there is a substantial low pressure area progged to drop into the base of the trough and will begin affecting northern Nevada by Monday. Low pressure will continue moving south and central low pressure will be near Washington State by Monday evening. Winds will increase across much of the higher terrain Monday afternoon.
259 AM MDT Sun Sep 17 2017 Latest analysis shows upper low over SK/MB swinging an upper trough across the eastern Dakotas and yet another weak upper trough over the western CONUS. At the surface, cool high pressure is centered over SD.
333 AM CDT Sun Sep 17 2017 Main concerns will be rain chances next couple of days, the hot temperatures/associated elevated fire weather concerns and finally development of western trough and its impacts on the southern Plains by the end of the forecast period. Weak surface cold front will continue to push slowly south this morning, before retreating back north late today and tonight.
443 AM MDT Sun Sep 17 2017 Latest analysis shows upper low over SK/MB swinging an upper trough across the eastern Dakotas and yet another weak upper trough over the western CONUS. At the surface, cool high pressure is centered over SD.
147 AM EDT Sun Sep 17 2017 Weak high pressure will persist across the region into Monday. As Jose moves northward over the offshore waters of the Carolinas, a ridge axis will persist over the southern Appalachians today through tonight. Will lean toward the warmer end of the ensemble of temperature guidance given recent performance. Very light northerly flow will persist under the ridge, and another round of mountain valley fog is likely again tonight.
352 AM EDT Sun Sep 17 2017 A frontal boundary across central ptns of the region will slowly lift north as a warm front tonight into Monday.
Temperatures will be slightly warmer compared to yesterday, though still below normal for this time of the year. As mentioned above, a strong cold front will begin to approach the Montana and Idaho border late tonight and swing through the rest of western Montana and north-central Idaho through the day on Monday.
But again, these showers have no upper level support at the current time, and most of the higher chances of precipitation occurs once it moves into the instability axis late tonight. A more active pattern is expected as the upcoming week progresses, mainly due to the formation of a trough in the western CONUS with a ridge in the eastern CONUS, putting the Upper Mississippi River Valley region in pronounced southwest flow aloft which will allow several organized systems to impact this region. Enough isentropic lift to the north of the warm front plus the buckling aloft from the trough within deep enough moisture will bring a few isolated to scattered showers to the area.
445 AM EDT Sun Sep 17 2017 Generally a persistence forecast expected for the start of the week as a ridge of high pressure resides over the region. Weather will be benign during the day as high pressure remains over the region. Expect some daytime cumulus cloud development, as general subsidence regime aloft keeping cumulus moderate over the ridgetops. The additional moisture will begin to interact with a trough advancing through the Great Lakes region and lead to increased cloud cover across the North Country.
VFR conditions expected until MVFR ceilings develop as airmass moistens behind a cold front across sections. Some concern for MVFR cigs at KGUY and KDHT behind the cold front late tonight into Sunday afternoon, have continued with this at both terminal sites during this time period. Instability will start out pretty limited of around 1500 J/kg mainly across the eastern zones, but this is expected to change as the cold front pushes through tonight.
Low temperatures should be in the lower 70s. Our FA will be between a building ridge over the western Gulf and Hurricane Jose off the southeast U.
Weak upper ridging has been gradually weakening and making way for the development of isolated showers and thunderstorms yesterday and that should be the case again this afternoon mainly west of I-65.
Otherwise, ridging surface and aloft will remain with model soundings showing mid-level cap keeping things dry. Another warm day with temperatures a couple degrees warmer than normals.
A cold front will exit southeast Wisconsin by noon.
1109 PM PDT Sat Sep 16 2017 A broad trough of low pressure over the West Coast will keep a cool air mass in place throughout the coming week.
420 AM CDT Sun Sep 17 2017 Upper ridging is over south Texas and Louisiana, and the CWA is under southwest flow aloft. Temperatures today are expected to be slightly cooler than yesterday. There is a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms across mainly the higher terrain and southeast New Mexico with good moisture in place. The upper ridge becomes more flattened on Monday as an upper trough moves over the Pacific Northwest.
304 AM CDT Sun Sep 17 2017 A cold front over eastern Kansas early this morning will push into the forecast area today.
Widespread dense valley fog has re-developed this morning across much of the area as high pressure has settled over the region and mostly clear skies prevail over the region. As the upper-lvl disturbance still continues to remain still semi- stationary aloft within the ridge, another round of showers will be possible over central NY and over NEPA this afternoon and early evening.
Cooler weather with a chance of showers by mid-week.
422 AM CDT Sun Sep 17 2017 An upper level ridge over the lower MS River valley will bring continued warm and humid conditions to the Midsouth today.
/17/ Today through tonight: Latest satellite imagery showed ridging over the region in the lower to upper levels of the atmosphere. However not looking for any strong convection due to weak lapse rates and no organized flow under the ridge. As far as temperatures are concerned it will be above normal with highs in the upper 80s to the lower 90s.
403 AM CDT Sun Sep 17 2017 Upper level short wave trough is lifting out negatively across the Dakotas. This has allowed the surface cold front to move southeast and at 07Z extended from eastern Iowa to southeast Kansas. The front is forecast to stall out over southern Kansas and then lift northward as a warm front tonight into Monday.
Dewpoints are also remaining elevated this afternoon in the lower to middle 60s, resulting in some increased humdity. The trough of low pressure that has produced the clouds and precip will slide north/northeast across Northern Minnesota into Western Ontario. The wrinkle or challenge for strong development could be the path of the low pressure, which would place the U. by mid- morning Sun, ushering in slightly cooler and more seasonal airmass to the U. A cold front moving in from the west will bring scattered showers and thunderstorms through west and central Upper Michigan overnight. By Sunday morning, expect the winds to pick back up to around 20 to 30 knots as a cold front pushes east across the lake.
/issued 740 PM EDT Sat Sep 16 2017/ A slightly drier pattern continues for a few days as the region sits under the influence of high pressure aloft.