Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Upper ridging breaks down tonight into Wednesday as western CONUS longwave trough lifts northeast into central Canada and pushes a cold front through. Cooler and drier air moves in for Wednesday with temperatures dropping into the upper 40s to mid 50s tomorrow night.
Into the late evening the front will push out leaving high pressure to push in behind. However given lack of moisture in the low to midlevels expect the region to remain dry.
359 PM EDT Tue Jun 21 2022 Shower and thunderstorm chances are likely with a Wednesday cold front. Dry weather is expected to continue tonight as the strong ridge remains in place. Warm advection with the strengthening ridge will hold overnight lows about 10 degrees above the averages.
RMS Moisture streaming into the area from the northwest in response to upper level low over southeast Sasketchewan but heights are already building over the area as ridging moves into Montana from the west. Heights continue to build into Wedensday with still dry conditions so sunshine and warmer air aloft should push temperatures into the 80s.
139 PM MDT Tue Jun 21 2022 The trough that brought showers and thunderstorms to the region yesterday, has since lifted out into MT, leaving most of WY in clear skies and seasonal temperatures. 70s today across many of the basins and 50s and 60s across the higher terrain will increase by about 10 degrees Wednesday as a ridge tries to build to our south. Fairly weak zonal flow will also occur today and tomorrow, though will be a bit stronger tomorrow as the ridge builds.
Forecast overall is on track for a dry day with cooler temperatures. Southwest flow aloft will prevail around an upper level high over the Southern Plains. Subtropical moisture lifts north around the high across New Mexico and clips southeast Colorado. Last nights cold front ushered in cooler air for today. Highs will mainly be in the lower 80s across northeast Colorado, though upper 70s will be possible where thicker cloud cover will be, like Lincoln county.
300 PM CDT Tue Jun 21 2022 Upper low continues to rotate in southern Manitoba, and there has been a fair amount of cumulus as well as a few isolated showers over the northern Red River Valley. Can't completely rule out a few funnels late this afternoon, but main activity will be showers and a few isolated thunderstorms as the upper low rotates through. POPs will rapidly taper off later on this evening as we lose heating and the upper low pulls east. Clouds and winds will be on the decrease, and overnight lows will be a bit cooler tonight in the 50s.
Winds will be from the northwest and north at DHT and GUY behind a cold front at 8 to 12 knots. Gusty southwest winds will prevail at AMA this afternoon and then they will switch around to the north behind the cold front this evening. Again, storms will be dealt with via amendments given the low confidence.
(Tonight) A vertically stacked ridge remains anchored over the Deep South today.
Strong upper level high pressure is situated across the region. Humidity levels have increased today and dewpoints reached into the lower 70s this morning. Dewpoints have mixed out in some spots but winds are light and some places are still in the lower 70s. Another hot one in store as upper level high pressure continues. Models seem a little too aggressive with mixing out surface dewpoints in the afternoon especially considering the weak cold front approaching from the north.
We did adjust low temperatures upward a degree or two due to the cloud cover, but still expect a pretty nice evening and overnight given today's cooler readings. Wednesday afternoon should feature warmer temperatures due to warm advection aloft, but looks like we'll still see quite a bit of mid/upper level cloudiness across the forecast area.
234 PM EDT Tue Jun 21 2022 High pressure will remain overhead through tonight and then slide east of the region through Wednesday.
Heat continues to build across much of the Deep South as a 596 decameter upper ridge is centered just off to our northwest. We're continuing to see some of the high-res guidance members hinting at the possibility of some isolated convection developing at least across the western half of Central Alabama by Wednesday afternoon. The forecast will continue to advertise isolated showers and storms, but if any convection develops it should be very short-lived due to the deep layer ridging currently in place.
South to southeast winds will gust at all terminals except CNM, which has a northwest wind due to a stationary trough just to the east. This was expected as the upper level high over the Mississippi River Valley builds back farther west increasing subsidence. The convective activity will diminish overnight with the loss of daytime heating and there will be less if any showers tomorrow as the high center retrogrades even farther west back into Texas. The closer proximity of the high will not only end rain chances but should also nudge temperatures up a degree or two.
137 PM CDT Tue Jun 21 2022 Subtropical moisture continues to be brought over the Panhandles in a south-southwest flow aloft between an upper high over Arkansas and a trough over the northern Plains. A cold front lies from the central Oklahoma Panhandle through the northwest Texas Panhandle. Also, another short wave trough is expected to move across southeast Colorado and southwest Kansas which will help to provide lift for the showers and thunderstorms.
355 PM CDT Tue Jun 21 2022 An anomalously strong 596dm high pres aloft persists just north of the area, while the entire ridge is expansive, extending from TX into the mid MS and Ohio Valleys. A weak midlevel disturbance traversing the base of the ridge was combining with sufficient instability (recent LAPS analyses show CAPS from 1800 to 3200+ J/kg and LIs from -3 to -5 C) and moisture (LAPS Layer PW and GOES TPW ranging from 1. Heat index values in these warmer locations have climbed as high as 105 degrees, but most areas have been between the middle 90s to lower 100s.
245 PM CDT Tue Jun 21 2022 Upper low continues to rotate in southern Manitoba, and there has been a fair amount of cumulus as well as a few isolated showers over the northern Red River Valley. Can't completely rule out a few funnels late this afternoon, but main activity will be showers and a few isolated thunderstorms as the upper low rotates through. POPs will rapidly taper off later on this evening as we lose heating and the upper low pulls east. Clouds and winds will be on the decrease, and overnight lows will be a bit cooler tonight in the 50s.
The drier airmass will continue today with upper level ridge over the lower Mississippi Valley. VFR conditions expected through the period with high pressure dominating the weather.
Cold front arrives with slight chance of storms Wednesday. Today into Tonight Another hot day so far as the axis of an upper-level ridge passes overhead. Large scale subsidence associated with the upper-level ridge will keep skies clear through the evening. By tonight, some convection associated with an approaching cold front in Illinois may spread some high-level clouds into the region. Cooler and drier air should then gradually filter in from the north, as the ridge flattens and retrogrades southwestward.
Surface temperatures sure are feeling it too; 24-hour temperatures are running 5-10F degrees warmer and in some locations 15+F degrees warmer.
Otherwise, low temperatures should be a tad higher tonight in comparison to last night, with dew points in the low to mid 70s in most spots currently, followed by a modest drop off.
251 PM EDT Tue Jun 21 2022 High pressure increases from the west through tonight.
Monsoon moisture may produce isolated showers and thunderstorms over the High Sierra south of Highway 50 late this week. As of 1:15 PM PDT, the temperature at Downtown Sacramento was 99 deg F, or 9 deg F warmer compared to this time yesterday.
421 PM EDT Tue Jun 21 2022 An upper-level composite analysis this afternoon reveals a deep layer mean anticyclone centered over the Deep South, with moist, unstable northeasterly flow prevailing over the southern Florida Peninsula and Keys. The deep layer mean anticyclone will break down over the next several days with geopotential heights falling over the western North Atlantic. The surface Atlantic high pressure ridge will weaken and shift southward to near the Keys by this weekend, resulting in a weak pressure pattern and lighter and more variable breezes. An Atlantic high pressure ridge will extend westward to northern Florida tonight and Wednesday.
736 PM EDT Tue Jun 21 2022 Shower and thunderstorm chances are likely with a Wednesday cold front. No major changes needed for the early evening update, as dry weather is expected to continue tonight with a strong ridge remaining in place. Warm advection with the strengthening ridge will hold overnight lows about 10 degrees above the averages.
This was expected as the upper level high over the Mississippi River Valley builds back farther west increasing subsidence. The convective activity will diminish overnight with the loss of daytime heating and there will be less if any showers tomorrow as the high center retrogrades even farther west back into Texas. The closer proximity of the high will not only end rain chances but should also nudge temperatures up a degree or two.
/NEW/ /Through Wednesday Evening/ A dominant high pressure ridge aloft will keep the above-normal temperatures going for another day. A subtle weakness in the southeast flank of the ridge will allow for a few isolated storms again Wednesday afternoon and evening.
A drying tend is expected to establish overnight and continue through the rest of the work week as high pressure over the E CONUS expands into SoFlo and provides a more stable/drier airmass. Deep layer NE flow will continue through Wednesday between a ridge over the MS valley and low off the NE coast aloft, and around the southern periphery of surface ridging. The maritime influence and the fact that we'll be east of the deep layer ridge, will result in highs reaching the upper 80s to near 90 degrees on Wednesday.
Weak high pressure aloft will sustain the dry weather and mostly clear skies through Wednesday. Temperatures will be 5 to 10 degrees warmer, with highs around 90 degrees in the lower valleys.
Very large dome of ridging surface to aloft over the Mississippi River Valley is pulling maritime airmass from cooler W Atlantic waters and expect it to remain in the area for a few days. This lower dewpoint airmass is drier than we've experienced lately, so it shouldn't feel as muggy or oppressive and as close to comfortable as we could expect this time of year. High pressure pushed into the area today along with much drier air.
Updated w/ a discusion for the 22/00Z TAFs Persistence wl win out in the aviation fcst as strong high pressure remains over the FA.
Winds will diminish this this evening with a building high pressure and boundary layer decoupling. Currently, upper level low pushing east across south central Canada and into Ontario, keeping the Northern Plains region in a northwest flow regime. Wrap around moisture associated with the low along with daytime instability continues to result in a partly to mostly cloudy sky along with scattered showers and a few thunderstorms across the Northern Plains.
626 PM CDT Tue Jun 21 2022 A cold front currently across Wisconsin and Iowa will settle southward into central Illinois tonight into Wednesday.
Looking a little closer at some of the 00Z CAM guidance, it appears slightly better thunderstorm chances will develop across portions of northeast Oklahoma Wednesday afternoon into the evening hours as upper high begins to shift southwest. Otherwise, low temperatures should be a tad higher tonight in comparison to last night, with dew points in the low to mid 70s in most spots currently, followed by a modest drop off.
1049 PM EDT Tue Jun 21 2022 High pressure will prevail before a trough of low pressure develops over the region mid week. A cold front will then stall over or near the area late week into the weekend. A thin veil of cirrus remains across the region, although model RH forecasts suggest much of the high cloud cover will move off the coast as we go through the night.
/Issued 137 PM CDT Tue Jun 21 2022/ Subtropical moisture continues to be brought over the Panhandles in a south-southwest flow aloft between an upper high over Arkansas and a trough over the northern Plains. A cold front lies from the central Oklahoma Panhandle through the northwest Texas Panhandle. Also, another short wave trough is expected to move across southeast Colorado and southwest Kansas which will help to provide lift for the showers and thunderstorms.
Lows tonight wl drop to the lower 70s across the area.
622 PM CDT Tue Jun 21 2022 Updated for 00Z aviation discussion 00Z TAF discussion: VFR conditions will continue through the period as strong high pressure remains over the region. /28/ Tonight and Wednesday: Strong high pressure at the surface and aloft will remain firmly in place across the region through the period.
733 PM EDT Tue Jun 21 2022 High pressure will prevail before a trough of low pressure develops over the region mid week. A cold front will then stall over or near the area late week into the weekend. A thin veil of cirrus remains across the region, although model RH forecasts suggest much of the high cloud cover will move off the coast as we go through the night.
High pressure is moseying toward us, from Texas, and looks to anchor at the "sweet spot": the Four Corners. Through this evening, isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue along and south of a KPAN-Four Corners line, with the highest coverage over and near the White Mountains.
544 PM MDT Tue Jun 21 2022 The trough that brought showers and thunderstorms to the region yesterday, has since lifted out into MT, leaving most of WY in clear skies and seasonal temperatures. 70s today across many of the basins and 50s and 60s across the higher terrain will increase by about 10 degrees Wednesday as a ridge tries to build to our south. Fairly weak zonal flow will also occur today and tomorrow, though will be a bit stronger tomorrow as the ridge builds.
849 PM CDT Tue Jun 21 2022 A cold front currently across Wisconsin and Iowa will settle southward into central Illinois tonight into Wednesday.
741 PM EDT Tue Jun 21 2022 A warm frontal boundary will remain over our area into Wednesday, while a cold front approaches from the Great Lakes.
In contrast, highs will climb across the north where cooler air has been slower to moderate.
(Rest of tonight) High pressure centered over north central Tennessee and abundant sunshine earlier today allowed the temperature to peak at 100 degrees at the Muscle Shoals airport and 97 degrees at the Huntsville International Airport. Models show low level advection of more moist air around the west side of the area of high pressure center into the region this evening. The end result should be very warm overnight temperatures near and west of the I-65 corridor and somewhat cooler lows further east.
Hot and humid weather is focused over the CWA today, as temperatures have reached the mid 90s with dewpoints in the lower 70s.
Given the high DCAPE values currently along the line. Overnight lows are expected to be under 75 degrees with the cold front moving in. Upper ridging breaks down tonight into Wednesday as western CONUS longwave trough lifts northeast into central Canada and pushes a cold front through. Cooler and drier air moves in for Wednesday with temperatures dropping into the upper 40s to mid 50s tomorrow night.
809 PM EDT Tue Jun 21 2022 Dry high pressure will bring above-normal temperatures through midweek.
517 PM MDT Tue Jun 21 2022 Current surface analysis shows weak high pressure over WY and MT, with a cold front to the northeast of the region. Relatively quiet weather is expected through the midweek period as high pressure slowly slides over and east of the area tonight and Wednesday.
1042 PM EDT Tue Jun 21 2022 Dry high pressure will bring above-normal temperatures through midweek.
835 PM CDT Tue Jun 21 2022 Skies are mostly clear across the Mid-South this evening with temperatures ranging from the lower 80s to lower 90s. Strong upper level high pressure is situated across the region. Humidity levels have increased today and dewpoints reached into the lower 70s this morning. Dewpoints have mixed out in some spots but winds are light and some places are still in the lower 70s. Another hot one in store as upper level high pressure continues. Models seem a little too aggressive with mixing out surface dewpoints in the afternoon especially considering the weak cold front approaching from the north.
Not much change to our weather as the strong dome of high pressure remains in place and temperatures will once again climb into the upper 90s tomorrow, with some spots in the east potentially reaching 100 degrees. /28/ Prior discussion below: Tonight and Wednesday: Strong high pressure at the surface and aloft will remain firmly in place across the region through the period.
506 PM MDT Tue Jun 21 2022 At the beginning of the short term period, the latest RAP analysis shows the CWA with a southwesterly flow aloft being between a positively tilted trough in the west and a positively tilted ridge in the east. On Wednesday, forecast models show the CWA's upper air flow turning west-southwesterly in the morning as an upper air ridge builds in the central CONUS throughout the day due to the OK/TX upper air high. Wednesday's daytime highs expect to be in the lower to middle 80 with overnight lows in the middle 50s to middle 60s.
650 PM CDT Tue Jun 21 2022 (Tonight) A vertically stacked ridge remains anchored over the Deep South today.
613 PM EDT Tue Jun 21 2022 High pressure will remain overhead through tonight and then slide east of the region through Wednesday.
/issued 355 PM CDT Tue Jun 21 2022/ An anomalously strong 596dm high pres aloft persists just north of the area, while the entire ridge is expansive, extending from TX into the mid MS and Ohio Valleys. A weak midlevel disturbance traversing the base of the ridge was combining with sufficient instability (recent LAPS analyses show CAPS from 1800 to 3200+ J/kg and LIs from -3 to -5 C) and moisture (LAPS Layer PW and GOES TPW ranging from 1. Heat index values in these warmer locations have climbed as high as 105 degrees, but most areas have been between the middle 90s to lower 100s.
755 PM CDT Tue Jun 21 2022 (Tonight through Wednesday) The main feature of note continues to be an upper level high centered over the lower Mississippi Valley. The high is beginning to rotate to a more latitudinal orientation as it begins to retrograde off to the west. Overnight lows tonight will be in the low to mid 70s with light winds out of the south and mostly clear skies. Tomorrow will be a near carbon copy to today with highs once again in the upper 90s to low 100s with no real strengthening in the 850 mb thermal ridge expected.
A cold front continues to slip slowly southeast today. Falls City's 95F at 20Z is a couple of degrees warmer than this time yesterday. Of greater concern is the possibility of strong to severe storms along the cold front hanging on CWA's southeastern edges later this evening.
628 PM CDT Tue Jun 21 2022 Key Points: * Thunderstorms are expected tonight as cold front moves through the area.
958 PM EDT Tue Jun 21 2022 A warm frontal boundary will remain over our area into Wednesday, while a cold front approaches from the Great Lakes.
Skies are fair and will keep just a little cirrus for a while south of I-20 and morning lows are looking warmer with the upper ridge overhead and our Father's Day air mass contracting our East.
737 PM EDT Tue Jun 21 2022 Scattered thunderstorms are expected on Wednesday as a cold front moves through the region.
614 PM CDT Tue Jun 21 2022 (This afternoon through Wednesday) The strong upper level high will remain over Oklahoma beyond Wednesday.
Upper low continues to rotate in southern Manitoba, and there has been a fair amount of cumulus as well as a few isolated showers over the northern Red River Valley. Can't completely rule out a few funnels late this afternoon, but main activity will be showers and a few isolated thunderstorms as the upper low rotates through. POPs will rapidly taper off later on this evening as we lose heating and the upper low pulls east. Clouds and winds will be on the decrease, and overnight lows will be a bit cooler tonight in the 50s.
High pressure aloft building across northern California will result in increasingly hot interior temperatures through mid-week. An upper trough of low pressure is presently situated just SE of the area with a nearly cut-off low offshore the S CA coast. A ridge of high pressure extends from the E Pacific to N CA and S OR. Closer to the coast, an onshore component to the low-level wind flow should keep temperatures in the 60s along the immediate coast, while locations away from the coast may venture into the 70s.
Building ridge from the west will keep the remainder of the night dry. This low-level southwesterly flow will cause downsloping and associated compressional warming, resulting in a warmer day and night, with high temperatures in the 80s and low temperatures Wednesday night in the 50s.
1032 PM EDT Tue Jun 21 2022 Scattered thunderstorms are expected on Wednesday as a cold front moves through the region.
Thunderstorms are possible in the higher terrain of Central California, as well as in the Kern County desert Wednesday afternoon. Even though a weak upper low exist off the California Coast, warm air is being drawn up to support the heat. Yet, this upper low will also allow a southerly to southeasterly flow to push monsoonal moisture northward.
946 PM EDT Tue Jun 21 2022 High Pressure anchored over the southeastern CONUS will continue to influence sensible weather over the Keys and coastal waters overnight. However, dry air on the eastern periphery of the ridge is pushing into the Keys along the northeast flow. The upper and middle Keys and nearshore waters are already convection free, with a some isolated showers in areas west of the seven mile bridge.
/issued 835 PM CDT Tue Jun 21 2022/ Skies are mostly clear across the Mid-South this evening with temperatures ranging from the lower 80s to lower 90s. Strong upper level high pressure is situated across the region. Humidity levels have increased today and dewpoints reached into the lower 70s this morning. Dewpoints have mixed out in some spots but winds are light and some places are still in the lower 70s. Another hot one in store as upper level high pressure continues. Models seem a little too aggressive with mixing out surface dewpoints in the afternoon especially considering the weak cold front approaching from the north.
So still on the warmer side, but dewpoints should remain in the 50s, making it overall a rather pleasant summer day.
1101 PM CDT Tue Jun 21 2022 (This afternoon through Wednesday) The strong upper level high will remain over Oklahoma beyond Wednesday.
Weak leeside low over Alberta forms tonight which turns low level flow a bit southerly which helps airmass stay a bit warmer than previous nights.
Temperatures fall to around normal overnight over the high terrain, with slightly above normal temperatures in the lower elevations. High pressure is moseying toward us, from Texas, and looks to anchor at the "sweet spot": the Four Corners.
(Today) This morning is a bit warmer and more humid than the previous couple. A cold front dropping southeast through the upper Midwest was producing clusters of thunderstorms in MO into eastern KS.
Expect the thermal trough to shift a bit eastward tomorrow giving marginal relief to Brookings. The lower conditions will lurk offshore before moving back onshore late Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday evening. A strong thermal trough near the coast is bringing northerly gales and very steep seas south of Cape Blanco, along with strong north winds and steep seas north of Cape Blanco.