Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
510 PM MDT Fri Jul 30 2021 Latest analysis shows the upper ridge tilted to the west leading to northwesterly flow aloft over the forecast area. Easterly winds continue at the surface, resulting from the pressure gradient between high pressure over South Dakota and a trough of low pressure to the southwest.
828 PM EDT Fri Jul 30 2021 High pressure brings dry and comfortable weather through Saturday.
724 PM EDT Fri Jul 30 2021 Cooler than average temperatures are expected through the weekend.
Smoke has continued to linger with higher concentrations in the south and better improvement along the International border where stronger southwest flow flow is just ahead of the approaching cold front, and it is still possible. Effective shear may be enhances immediately along the frontal zone as it passes, so if CAPE were on the higher end of this range a strong cell with sub-severe hail/wind can't be ruled out before sunset. Ensemble guidance indicates high agreement between members of continued enhanced ridging, shifting us to northerly flow. This is expected to continue through the evening hours ahead of a cold front that will push through the region tonight.
843 PM EDT Fri Jul 30 2021 Cooler than average temperatures are expected through the weekend.
748 PM EDT Fri Jul 30 2021 A refreshing pattern change will bring cooler than average temperatures and pleasant/less humid conditions to close-out July.
Broad high pressure remains centered over the Central US with Northern California situated along the western edge. An upper level trough forming in the Eastern Pacific will cause heights to fall over Northern California this weekend. Tomorrow's temperatures are forecast around 5 to 10 degrees cooler than today. Expect Valley and foothill temperatures in the low 90s to near 100 degrees and mountains in the 70s to 90s.
819 PM EDT Fri Jul 30 2021 High pressure brings dry and comfortable weather through Saturday.
542 PM MDT Fri Jul 30 2021 The main concern will transition away from the hot temperatures today to lower clouds and patchy fog Saturday morning along with smoke behind a cold front that moves through the area early Saturday morning.
713 PM EDT Fri Jul 30 2021 A cold front is passing through the Mid Atlantic region today with a chance of an isolated shower or thunderstorm in the Piedmont, then slightly cooler and drier conditions on Saturday.
1045 PM EDT Fri Jul 30 2021 A refreshing pattern change will bring cooler than average temperatures and pleasant/less humid conditions to close-out July.
Otherwise, drier conditions will prevail over the area for the next few days as monsoonal moisture stays confined to the south and west, keeping thunderstorm chances over the higher terrain.
452 PM PDT Fri Jul 30 2021 Updated Air Quality Issues Section Above average temperatures to continue over the forecast area due to high pressure aloft. This moisture feed is coming from an off-shore low that is phased with an upper level ridge located over the Plains, giving storms access to abundant moisture.
A sfc cold front will accompany the trough, and both are serving to spark a band of showers/storms currently.
139 AM EDT Sat Jul 31 2021 High pressure will continue to build southeast across the area through Saturday morning.
Key Messages: 1) Cooler temperatures today, but a return of hazy/smokey skies is expected with the more northerly winds. These lower dew points will help keep Heat Index values about 5+ degrees cooler than the past several days, will still see Heat Index temperatures in the 90's across the area, and it could possibly flirt with 100 around the Chattanooga area in the late afternoon. Air will wrap around the northern edge of the strong ridge and move into our area today.
141 AM EDT Sat Jul 31 2021 Cooler than average temperatures are expected through the weekend.
High temps pretty comfortable in the lower 80s mostly.
The storm activity will make temperatures tricky however temperatures south of the outflow boundary are still expected to reach the lower 90s with heat index values of 102-107 and it is here we have a excessive heat warning continuing for one more day.
Surface smoke will continue to be an issue through much of the daytime hours, but some improvement will be possible behind an approaching cold front that will slide southward later this afternoon.
302 AM CDT Sat Jul 31 2021 Thunderstorm complex continues from west-central to east-central portions of Nebraska at 07Z north of the surface front along the KS/NE state line in deep moisture convergence along the terminus of the low-level jet. West-northwest upper-level flow north of the upper high over the southern Plains may bring some of this activity into northeast Kansas toward dawn but the weakening LLJ may allow for much of this to weaken and stay to the north. As the upper high is suppressed further south by modest upper troughing to the northeast, the surface front is still expected to shift slowly south through the area today, exiting east-central Kansas by early evening. Have kept temperatures close to previous values though areas of mid and high cloud could keep them a bit cooler.
(Today and tonight) Upper level high pressure over Oklahoma will continue to influence our weather today.
There is plenty of convection upstream of the CWA early this morning along a cold front. Based on current conditions and latest guidance, it appears most convection will hold off until the later afternoon and evening hours as the front and upper troughing moves in.
ABM Chattanooga Airport, TN 94 74 89 69 86 / 10 50 70 40 40 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 93 71 85 67 86 / 10 50 60 30 30 Oak Ridge, TN 92 71 84 66 84 / 20 50 60 30 30 Tri Cities Airport, TN 89 66 81 63 83 / 10 50 70 20 30.
Lee trough from central MT extended into eastern WY. Upper ridge extended from the southern plains into the northern Rockies per water vapour loop.
The next cold front is on the way, pushing south across west central and southwest Kansas during the day today. Out ahead of the front, temperatures will rise quickly through the 90s, topping out in the 98 to 103F range along and southeast of the Highway 56 corridor from Elkhart to Dodge City to Larned.
A cold front continues to push southeast over the region, sparking isolated thunderstorms. Showers are expected to push out of the region entirely by mid-morning giving way to drier weather and cooler temperatures. This will keep to keep diurnal heating to a minimum and when combined with a cooler airmass behind the departing front, will keep daytime highs in the 80s for today.
222 AM EDT Sat Jul 31 2021 Persistent troughing off the eastern seaboard has prevented the Atlantic high from building into the Florida Peninsula and the Florida Keys in earnest.
This could clear out the lower level smoke for many areas, although bring some continued smoke for central areas. Afternoon RH may dip into the 20s and 30s today, although the higher RH values come in areas of higher winds across the east.
Running a little cooler (5-6 degrees)in the Delta influenced areas thanks to a rejuvenated Delta Breeze 18G27 kts. Broad high pressure remains centered over the Central US with Northern California situated along the western edge. An upper level trough forming in the Eastern Pacific will cause heights to fall over Northern California this weekend. Tomorrow's temperatures are forecast around 5 to 10 degrees cooler than today. Expect Valley and foothill temperatures in the low 90s to near 100 degrees and mountains in the 70s to 90s.
The cold front is set to push into our northern zones by mid-late morning and progress southward through the day. High pressure will build back into the region the rest of the period.
/DC/ High pressure will remain in control tonight with mostly clear skies expected. Overnight temperatures will be warm in the low to mid 70s and will provide little relief from the ongoing heat wave. /TW/ Prior discussion below: Tonight and Saturday: High pressure aloft and at the surface will maintain its presence over the region as we end the work week and move into Saturday. This will also result in the continuation of the high heat and humidity levels across the region.
Very late in the period between 03z-06z, TSRA chances will begin to increase at KBVO as a surface cold front approaches.
1130 PM MDT Fri Jul 30 2021 The main concern will transition away from the hot temperatures today to lower clouds and patchy fog Saturday morning along with smoke behind a cold front that moves through the area early Saturday morning.
214 AM CDT Sat Jul 31 2021 06Z upper air analysis indicates that the once well-defined mid/upper-level anticyclone is beginning to decay over the southern Great Plains as an amplifying, longwave trough digs into the Upper Midwest region with several subtle perturbations rotating through the main belt of larger-scale flow. At the surface, a diffuse trough was located across far eastern New Mexico, extending northward towards southeastern Colorado where lee cyclogenesis of a broad, 1008 mb low is underway with a quasi-stationary front extending generally eastward along the 40th parallel. Strong, diabatic surface heating is expected today as temperatures soar into the lower 90s on the Caprock and to near 100 degrees in the eastern Rolling Plains with a deep, well-mixed boundary-layer extending up to ~3-km AGL.
1021 PM MDT Fri Jul 30 2021 Latest analysis shows the upper ridge tilted to the west leading to northwesterly flow aloft over the forecast area. Easterly winds continue at the surface, resulting from the pressure gradient between high pressure over South Dakota and a trough of low pressure to the southwest.
08z/3am surface analysis shows high pressure over the Great Lakes. with locations from Jacksonville eastward to Mattoon potentially staying in the lower 70s.
203 AM EDT Sat Jul 31 2021 High pressure brings dry and comfortable weather through Saturday evening.
1145 PM EDT Fri Jul 30 2021 High pressure will provide dry and seasonably cool conditions through Saturday. High pressure will keep the area dry through Saturday.
312 AM EDT Sat Jul 31 2021 A refreshing pattern change will bring cooler than average temperatures and pleasant/less humid conditions to close-out July.
157 AM EDT Sat Jul 31 2021 A cold front is passing through the Mid Atlantic region today with a chance of an isolated shower or thunderstorm in the Piedmont, then slightly cooler and drier conditions on Saturday.
301 AM EDT Sat Jul 31 2021 High pressure will provide dry weather today.
A Flash Flood Watch remains in effect for Lemhi and Idaho counties this afternoon and evening; areas of particular concern include: the Salmon River Corridor, the Highway 93 corridor (Ellis to Salmon, Carmen to North Fork), and the Highway 95 corridor (Riggins to Slate Creek).
A cold front was dropping south from the Lake Superior region early this morning, and producing a small cluster of showers and thunderstorms over western Lake Superior and the western U. A cold front will drop south through the forecast area this afternoon and evening. Gusty north winds will continue to pull cooler air into the region on Sunday, with highs only expected to reach into the upper 60s and lower 70s.
/issued 305 AM CDT Sat Jul 31 2021/ SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday): Mid level ridging is centered over the Southern High Plains and extends broadly over a large area, including the Gulf of Mexico where high pressure is supported at the surface. Toward the end of the short term, Saturday night and Sunday, the ridge will begin to break down a bit as larger scale troughing takes over above the Midwest.
Thunderstorm complex continues from west-central to east-central portions of Nebraska at 07Z north of the surface front along the KS/NE state line in deep moisture convergence along the terminus of the low-level jet. West-northwest upper-level flow north of the upper high over the southern Plains may bring some of this activity into northeast Kansas toward dawn but the weakening LLJ may allow for much of this to weaken and stay to the north. As the upper high is suppressed further south by modest upper troughing to the northeast, the surface front is still expected to shift slowly south through the area today, exiting east-central Kansas by early evening. Have kept temperatures close to previous values though areas of mid and high cloud could keep them a bit cooler.
GAH MORNING DISCUSSION: Upper level ridging will remain the dominant weather feature across Montana through at least midweek. By late week, the ridge begins to flatten out as an upper level trough approaches the Pacific Northwest.
647 AM CDT Sat Jul 31 2021 (Today and tonight) Upper level high pressure over Oklahoma will continue to influence our weather today.
A cold front continues to push southeast over the region, sparking isolated thunderstorms. Showers are expected to push out of the region entirely by mid-morning giving way to drier weather and cooler temperatures. This will keep to keep diurnal heating to a minimum and when combined with a cooler airmass behind the departing front, will keep daytime highs in the 80s for today. Regardless of smoke, temperatures remain cooler in the 80s again on Sunday as northwest flow pushes in some cooler air.
RH values may lower this afternoon into the 20s and 30s, however, the breezier winds will be in the higher humidity areas across the east limiting the fire weather danger threat for today. This could clear out the lower level smoke for many areas, although bring some continued smoke for central areas. Afternoon RH may dip into the 20s and 30s today, although the higher RH values come in areas of higher winds across the east.
Key Messages: 1) Cooler temperatures today, but a return of hazy/smokey skies is expected with the more northerly winds. These lower dew points will help keep Heat Index values about 5+ degrees cooler than the past several days, will still see Heat Index temperatures in the 90's across the area, and it could possibly flirt with 100 around the Chattanooga area in the late afternoon. Air will wrap around the northern edge of the strong ridge and move into our area today. Later in the day on Saturday into Sunday night the remnants of an MCS currently across Nebraska/Iowa is expected to push southeastward around the periphery of the ridge.
The upper level high pressure continues to move through eastern Oklahoma, resulting in mostly clear skies across the region. Relief is on the horizon with cooler temperatures behind a cold front Saturday evening into Sunday. Precipitation chances also return with the cold front, with storm development expected along and ahead of the cold front moving southward from Kansas.
535 AM EDT Sat Jul 31 2021 High pressure will provide dry weather today. Shower and thunderstorm chances return Sunday with a crossing cold front.
An upper trough off the coast will push monsoon moisture east late tonight and Sunday, shutting down the chances for monsoon thunderstorms after today.
Isolated showers and storms will again be possible this afternoon mainly over the higher terrain of West Texas and adjacent plains. Our focus will then shift to a cold front which will enter the TX Panhandle late tonight and should reach the N Permian Basin early Sunday morning. Latest GEFS ensemble QPF shows the highest precip totals over the N Permian Basin and southeast NM where 0.
Otherwise mid/Upr level ridge centered over OK will continue to dominate our weather resulting is hot temps with heat indices 105 to 109 with a few 110 values expected in the afternoon.
This is evidence of the abundant subtropical moisture that continues to be funneled in between high pressure aloft over the Rockies and a weak upper low a couple hundred miles offshore from Point Conception.
High temps pretty comfortable in the lower 80s mostly. Should be a great day Sunday with continued northerly flow and highs again mostly in the lower 80s, well below normal for the first day of August.
With a mid-level high pressure still northwest of our region and a trough over the Eastern US pushing further south, it will help steer a mid- level easterly wave into Coastal TX today. The mid- level high pressure will be further north today compared to yesterday, so this afternoon convective activity could initialize and push further north as well. However, as the trough over the Eastern US continues to push further south, a very late season "cold" front will begin to push south and encroach along our northern CWA late Sunday night.
A sfc cold front will accompany the trough, and both are serving to spark a band of showers/storms currently. turning cooler (and even less humid) for Sunday with the passage of the cold front later tonight. Amplified upper level ridge holding over the western CONUS for the start of the new work week, with broad troughing/northwest flow persisting for the local area. Both the GFS and EC suggest bits of energy will top the ridge and drop across the western Great Lakes while at the sfc an area of high pressure slowly meanders east/southeast. Models moving the ridge eastward, breaking it down a bit. Flow becomes more southwest with warmer air returning.
335 AM MDT Sat Jul 31 2021 Upper level ridging will remain the dominant weather feature across Montana through at least midweek. By late week, the ridge begins to flatten out as an upper level trough approaches the Pacific Northwest.
The storm activity will make temperatures tricky however temperatures south of the outflow boundary are still expected to reach the lower 90s with heat index values of 102-107 and it is here we have a excessive heat warning continuing for one more day. Storms are expected to shift south of the area late tonight as high pressure builds into the area on Sunday ushering in much more pleasant conditions. Highs will be in the low to mid 80s with dewpoints in the 50s and lower 60s.
later in the period TSRA chances will increase across the NE OK and NW AR sites from 04z through the end of the period as a surface cold front approaches. The upper ridge will retrograde by Sunday, as a longwave trof develops over the eastern half of the country. Temperatures look to return closer to normal late in the week as the upper ridge begins nosing back east into the southern Plains.
Cool and comfortable Sunday into Sunday night with low level thermal trough in place.
An upper ridge to the west of the forecast area will gradually shift eastward, leading to warming temperatures for the coming week.
1215 PM CDT Sat Jul 31 2021 (Today and tonight) Upper level high pressure over Oklahoma will continue to influence our weather today.
A low pressure system over southeast Oregon is moving northward. This low is interacting with the extremely high amount of moisture across the region to produce scattered thunderstorms once again this afternoon. Greatest risk is across the high country and areas of the Snake Plain/Magic Valley that are close to the hills/mountains.
A moist southerly flow remains in place over Utah and southwest Wyoming this morning with a ridge centered just east of the area. 8 inch over the higher terrain to 1. This is more than enough to see another round of convective development this afternoon, primarily focused over the higher terrain due to a lack of a well defined forcing mechanism.
An upper level ridge over the western CONUS and trough over the eastern CONUS continue to dictate our weather pattern.
316 PM CDT Sat Jul 31 2021 Overall scenario is that the cold front has cleared the CWA with some elevated showers in the south half of the CWA. These showers should wane toward sunset with lack of heating and the continued exit of the cold front. As the cold front moves farther south, the band of thickest smoke should follow. Noticeably drier air comes in with a second cold front tonight, helping to scour a lot of smoke we have around now.
Temperatures generally running 1 to 2 degrees warmer than this time yesterday with a slightly drier air-mass in place across portions of northeast Oklahoma per latest mesonet observations.
147 PM EDT Sat Jul 31 2021 High pressure will maintain fair skies and dry conditions through early Sunday. Despite the lack of increasing moisture, a reinforcing cold front will dive across the Great Lakes into the region on Saturday, bringing an increased threat for showers and thunderstorms, with the greatest coverage during the afternoon and highest over northwest Pennsylvania. Once this activity clears by early evening, a long stretch of dry and cooler-than-average weather is expected through the upcoming week. Little in the way of adjustments needed through tonight as dry conditions continue under the influence of high pressure.
234 PM CDT Sat Jul 31 2021 Surface outflow boundary moved south to along the highway 54 corridor before weakening at early afternoon and appears the effective cold front will be somewhere along this line at peak heating late this afternoon.
Meanwhile deep layer ridging will hold firm extending across south Florida and into the Gulf Mexico.
A cold front will continue pushing south through the area the rest of today and tonight.
318 PM CDT Sat Jul 31 2021 Still holding onto the heat warning over portions of east central Kansas but will likely be able to expire early as the front continues to sag south with cooler dewpoints filtering in behind. The upper air pattern continues to transition pointing to a cooler next few days ahead. This is helping to aid the push south of the cold front through the area this afternoon as well.
Ridging aloft continues to maintain dry air, light winds, and oppressive heat over the Ark-La-Tex as anticipated, and as it begins to shift across the area toward the Gulf Coast, winds will gradually gain a southwesterly component.
The remnants of an MCS will then make it's way into the area at the end of the forecast period, but certainty is too low to mention prevailing precipitation, so have hinted at this with VCSH during the time frame with the highest chances for showers. ABM Chattanooga Airport, TN 95 74 88 68 86 / 10 60 70 20 20 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 94 71 85 66 86 / 10 70 80 10 20 Oak Ridge, TN 93 71 84 65 84 / 20 60 70 10 20 Tri Cities Airport, TN 90 68 82 61 83 / 10 70 70 10 20.
(This evening through Sunday) At this hour, West Central Texas remains under an upper level ridge, providing one last opportunity for relatively benign weather this afternoon. This should help to push a surface cold front into our region by midday.
SHORT TERM (Tonight through Sunday Night): The large 500 mb ridge that is dominating the western U. As the ridging shifts westward through Sun Night, some weakness may build in the 500 mb flow over the western Gulf of Mex towards the lower TX coastline. Due to the high model confidence will go close to this consensus for the RGV.
The region will be between a frontal zone to the northwest, and high to the southeast at the surface this period, with upper ridging at 500mb slowly weakening. With upper ridging in place Today, convective activity will be fairly suppressed, but storms will develop in the heat of the day along the west coast sea breeze and move across portions of NE FL. For Sunday the upper pattern is trending more toward troughing, and the surface frontal zone will be closer to SE GA.
230 PM CDT Sat Jul 31 2021 Have seen some relief from the smoke across the area this afternoon, as the cold front that pushed through this morning has allowed cleaner air into the area and increased visibilities over 6 miles. Aloft, upper trough axis is quickly dropping southeast across ND this afternoon (main energy approaching the MN arrowhead) and will sweep through the area this evening. This will put the area under northwesterly winds aloft, as we're between the upper ridge over the western Rockies and the upper trough that moves through the Great Lakes and then northeast U.
405 PM EDT Sat Jul 31 2021 High pressure shifts southeast of Long Island tonight.