Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
COMBINED WITH SUNNY SKIES BENEATH A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE SUGGESTS WIDESPREAD 60S FOR HIGHS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL INCREASE ON SUNDAY IN ADVANCE OF A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE FOUR CORNERS. MAYBE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER WITH THE GFS/NAM HINTING AT SOME MODEST COOLING ALOFT.
Cool high pressure will slide east from Tennessee into the western Carolinas tonight. Inland areas along and south of I-10 will see lower to mid 40s with coastal counties dropping into the lower 50s.
153 PM CST SAT NOV 14 2015 152 PM CST HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR SOUTHEAST WILL BRING BREEZY BUT OTHERWISE QUIET WEATHER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. EXPECT A LITTLE BREEZIER CONDITIONS TOMORROW WITH GUSTS IN THE LOW 20 KT RANGE.
Water vapor imagery shows at least one obvious upper low in Arizona and a suggestion of another weaker wave in northern New Mexico. Increasing flow over the central Rockies leads to rapid deepening of the lee trough and stronger south winds, staying slightly below Advisory levels. Temps tonight should average to be several degrees warmer in stronger wind and increasing moisture but more cloud should keep highs cooler. Initial wave move out across the Central Plains Sunday night and with the low level jet increasing and advecting moisture northward across eastern Kansas expect showers to increase through the night.
308 PM CST SAT NOV 14 2015 HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED FROM EASTERN KENTUCKY TO SOUTHERN ARKANSAS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS MUCH OF THE COUNTRY AT THIS TIME. BUT A MID LEVEL IMPULSE MOVING INTO THE RIDGE IS PRODUCING QUITE A BIT OF CLOUDINESS OVER TEXAS. ONE MORE COOL NIGHT AND MILD DAY IN STORE FOR THE AREA AS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD.
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MID LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE CONUS IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY WITH A RIDGE AXIS MOVING INTO WISCONSIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
A LITTLE BIT WARMER AS WE GET INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK.
VEERING TO THE EAST AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U. EARLY THROUGH MIDWEEK WILL FEATURE AN AMPLIFYING PATTERN OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AS A RATHER DEEP UPR CYCLONE MIGRATES E OF THE ROCKIES AND RIDGING ALOFT BUILDS NORTHWARD FROM THE EASTERN GULF TO THE NE US SEABOARD. INITIALLY BRISK ONSHORE FLOW WILL SLOWLY VEER TO EAST TO SE COMPONENT WITH SUITABLE MOISTURE MAINLY IN THE LOWER LEVELS TO PRODUCE A MENTIONABLE TO SCATTERED RAIN CHC FOR THE AREA FROM SUNDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH MIDWEEK.
WITH AROUND TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE OVR THE HIGH VALLEYS. READINGS SHOULD BE MOSTLY IN THE 60S OVR THE PLAINS AND IN THE 50S OVR THE HIGH VALLEYS. SWRLY TO W WINDS OVR SRN PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS AND NR SOME OF THE MTN AREAS OVERNIGHT SHOULD KEEP TEMPS A LITTLE WARMER IN THOSE LOCATIONS.
Flow aloft has transitioned to southwesterly ahead of a developing upper trough off of the west coast.
A closed low continues to develop over the Desert Southwest, with enhanced vertical motion overspreading West TX. This ascent is occurring downstream of the primary trough with subtle waves traversing the region, embedded within relatively strong quasi-zonal flow aloft. PoPs are generally in the 30-40 percent range for today, with the lowest rain chances found north of I-20.
307 PM EST SAT NOV 14 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THIS WEEKEND BRINGING FAIR AND DRY WEATHER WITH LESS WIND. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WILL BLANKET THE REGION LATE TODAY AND THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT AS A SFC-850 MB RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. TO THE UPPER 40S THROUGHOUT THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.
A 1032 AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BROUGHT FREEZING CONDITIONS TO MUCH OF NORTHERN ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE THIS MORNING. THE EXCEPTION WERE THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1000 FEET. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 60S. INTO THE LOWER 20S THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN ITS HOLD ACROSS THE REGION.
1251 PM EST SAT NOV 14 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES TO END THE WEEKEND. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR THE AVERAGE LOWS OF THE LOW TO MID 30S. TAX HIGH PRESSURE AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE THEME FOR THE SHORT TERM.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY IN MOST PLACES.
BUT TEMPS MAY BE TRICKY AGAIN DUE TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WHICH ARE TRADITIONALLY COOLER WINDS.
Warmer low temperatures are likely tonight as a prevailing southerly flow continues to draw slightly warmer air northward into the area.
428 PM EST SAT NOV 14 2015 STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND A STALLED FRONT ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA WILL KEEP BREEZY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
424 PM EST SAT NOV 14 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND PROVIDE DRY WEATHER THROUGH EARLY WEEK. UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS RISE AS TROF MOVES EAST OF AREA. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S.
BUT A FEW LOCATIONS WILL STILL SEE A CHANCE AT SEEING TEMPERATURES DROP TO OR BELOW FREEZING. 16 COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. /ISSUED 358 AM CST SAT NOV 14 2015/ UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS AS A TROUGH DEEPENS ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST ON SUNDAY.
High pressure at the surface and weak ridging aloft will keep the region dry tonight and Sunday.
215 PM EST SAT NOV 14 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD TONIGHT AND THEN BEGIN SHIFTING OFFSHORE TOMORROW. TEMPS WILL BE WARMER AND FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES (OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS) ARE NOT LIKELY.
BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
1250 PM EST SAT NOV 14 2015 DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS REGION AND PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
Despite clear skies, will see slightly warmer temps overnight, in the upper 30s to low 40s. However, we will see one more dry day with temperatures warming up into the low to mid 60s.
114 PM EST SAT NOV 14 2015 COOL DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY.
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING EASTWARD OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES.
315 PM CST SAT NOV 14 2015 MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL DOMINATE THIS FORECAST PERIOD. AT THIS POINT IT STILL LOOKS LIKE SUNDAY SHOULD BE RAIN-FREE WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES TOPPING OUT AROUND 60 DEGREES OR SLIGHTLY WARMER.
Dry and cool conditions are expected tonight as temperatures range from the low to upper 40s. Warmer temperatures starting on Sunday will also provide a decent weather day.
344 PM EST SAT NOV 14 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY AWAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NE ALONG THE EAST COAST ON SUNDAY.
235 PM EST SAT NOV 14 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THIS WEEKEND BRINGING FAIR AND DRY WEATHER WITH LESS WIND. TO THE UPPER 40S THROUGHOUT THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. SKIES WILL BECOME MAINLY CLEAR LATE TODAY AND THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT AS A SFC-850 MB RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY.
A TROUGH IS PULLING OFF OF THE EASTERN SEABOARD WITHIN THE NORTHERN STREAM. SOME MODEST RIDGING IS OCCURRING BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE CONUS. ALLOWING FOR HIGHS TO REBOUND INTO THE LOW AND MID 50S. JUST A TOUCH COOLER THAN YESTERDAY THANKS TO THE CHILLY START THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN CONTROL ACROSS OUR AREA AS THE CENTER GRADUALLY SHIFTS EAST. WITH LOWS GETTING DOWN TO SIMILAR READINGS IF NOT A TOUCH COOLER THAN THIS MORNING. WITH HIGHS REBOUNDING TO THE LOWER TO MID 60S THANKS TO THE RETURN FLOW AND DRY LOW LEVEL AIR. ALTHOUGH STILL EXPECT THE COOLER VALLEYS TO RETURN TO AT LEAST THE UPPER 20S. HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
INGREDIENTS FOR HEAVY SNOW REMAIN IN PLACE WITH UPPER CUT-OFF LOW TRACKING ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHEASTERN ND. H85 TEMPS REMAIN AROUND -2C TO -3C WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING SURFACE TEMPS HOVERING NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE SOUNDING SUB-FREEZING.
EVENTUALLY A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH INTO THE REGION ON SUNDAY AND THIS WILL INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS. FORCING HOWEVER WILL BE WEAK AS MAIN COLD FRONT UPSTREAM IN CANADA MOVES VERY LITTLE. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 20 DEGREES WARMER THAN SEASONAL NORMALS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COOLER THAN TODAY BUT STILL WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS ON SUNDAY.
THE 14 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF OUR REGION EXTENDING UP INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.
1244 PM EDT SAT MAY 9 2015 A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THESE SHOWERS DEVELOPED ALONG A LOW LVL THETA E RIDGE AND DUE TO A STRONG CAP AND EXPECT THIS RIDGE TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 89 64 87 65 / 10 10 40 20 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 87 63 86 65 / 10 10 20 30 OAK RIDGE, TN 87 63 87 66 / 10 10 20 30 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 86 58 85 61 / 20 20 20 30.
MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL ONLY SLOWLY BUILD IN WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE/INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH FOR SHOWER OR TSTM ACTIVITY. HIGHS TODAY A BIT WARMER THAN YESTERDAY.
728 AM EDT SAT MAY 9 2015 LOW PRESSURE OVER MICHIGAN WILL MOVE INTO NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY WITH THE TRAILING FRONT STALLING NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT EASTWARD TOWARD THE RGV THRU 17Z. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK EAST NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE COLORADO AND NEW MEXICO BORDER TODAY BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. A SECONDARY UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CROSS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT KEEPING LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST FOR MANY AREAS.
739 AM CDT SAT MAY 9 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER COLORADO WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE LARGE SCALE LIFT ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
1112 AM CDT SAT MAY 9 2015 ADJUSTED POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND THE THINKING THAT MID/UPPER RIDGE NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOULD KEEP ATMOSPHERE A LITTLE MORE CAPPED. /ISSUED 356 AM CDT SAT MAY 9 2015/ CURRENTLY TEMPERATURES ARE WARM IN THE LOW TO MID 70S WITH A SOUTHERLY WIND AND CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER KEEPING THE TEMPERATURES UP. THE UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE HAS CONTINUED TO NUDGE BACK NORTHWARD IN THE WAKE OF ANA. WITH A SEPARATE HIGH PRESSURE CELL IN THE GULF. THE LIFTING OF ANA NORTHWARD IS ALLOWING THE ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO BUILD BACK TOWARDS THE WATERS. THEN AS THE RIDGE AXIS BUILDS INTO THE WATERS TONIGHT THE WIND FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTH AT ABOUT 10-13 KNOTS.
/ISSUED 440 AM CDT SAT MAY 9 2015/ COLD FRONT FROM YESTERDAY WAS REINFORCED BY OUTFLOW. AND IS IN THE PROCESS OF BEING OVERTAKEN BY INCOMING PACIFIC COLD FRONT. THREAT ENDS ABRUPTLY BY 7 PM WHEN MORE STABLE AIR ARRIVES WITH PACIFIC COLD FRONT.
924 AM EDT SAT MAY 9 2015 A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THESE SHOWERS DEVELOPED ALONG A LOW LVL THETA E RIDGE AND DUE TO A STRONG CAP AND EXPECT THIS RIDGE TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THEN IN GENERAL TURN DRIER AND COOLER THEREAFTER. LINGERING UPR-LVL TROUGHINESS INTO WED COULD PRODUCE A FEW RESIDUAL SHWRS ACRS OUR NRN ZNS.
744 AM EDT SAT MAY 9 2015 RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN. TODAY WILL BE JUST A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 20 DEGREES WARMER THAN SEASONAL NORMALS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COOLER THAN TODAY BUT STILL WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS ON SUNDAY.
1130 AM EDT SAT MAY 9 2015 THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED ACROSS MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE YESTERDAY WILL SHIFT BACK TO THE EAST AS A WARM FRONT TODAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTH INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT AND WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTH ON SUNDAY.
/ISSUED 400 AM EDT SAT MAY 9 2015/ * HIGH WATERSPOUT RISK OFF SE FLORIDA COAST THIS MORNING * ISOLATED TSTORMS POSSIBLE INTERIOR-EAST COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT EAST COAST/SE FL WATERS * STRONG TSTORMS POSSIBLE SUN-MON OVER THE INTERIOR THE UPPER LOW WHICH HAS BEEN SPINNING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC AND PRODUCING A MEAN WEST-NORTHWEST WIND FLOW ACROSS FLORIDA WILL GRADUALLY LIFT NORTH-NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM FLORIDA TONIGHT- SUNDAY.
915 AM PDT SAT MAY 9 2015 HIGHER PRESSURE OVER THE AREA AND WEAKER ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES THROUGH SUNDAY.
AN ACTIVE WEATHER SCENARIO WILL UNFOLD TODAY AS A STRONG UPPER LOW OVER ARIZONA MOVES SLOWLY NORTHEAST TO COLORADO BY THIS EVENING. A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL LIFT OUT AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW EARLY THIS MORNING WHICH WILL BRING A ROUND OF PRECIP AFTER DAYBREAK. BUT AS THE FIRST TROUGH APPROACHES AM ANTICIPATING DEVELOPMENT OF ELEVATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STARTING IN OUR SW COUNTIES BY 6 AM AND WORKING UP TO I-70 BY MID-MORNING. AS THE UPPER LOW APPROACHES COLORADO LATER TODAY. 0-6 KM WIND SHEAR WILL INCREASE TO 70 KTS BY MIDDAY AS A STRONG 500 MB JET WORKS IT WAY AROUND THE UPPER LOW AND SPREADS ACROSS THE AREA.
448 AM PDT SAT MAY 9 2015 High pressure builds into the region through the weekend, resulting in declining winds, mostly clear skies and warming temperatures.
A STORM SYSTEM OVER NORTH CENTRAL ARIZONA WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD OVER THE STATE.
DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL TODAY AND TONIGHT AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION AND WEAK RIDGING ALOFT OCCURS. ONE AREA OF PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH A S/W TROF IS EXPECTED TO PASS TO OUR SE AND MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN INTO SW LOWER MICHIGAN. SEVERAL DUE TO THE APPROACHING DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.
623 AM CDT SAT MAY 9 2015 STRONG UPPER CLOSED LOW SPINNING ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS WILL INDUCE SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE TODAY WITH THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. AS THE WARM FRONT SHIFTS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH THE AREA. THIS WOULD PUT THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL POTENTIAL MORE OVER CENTRAL NEBRASKA WHICH IS ALSO WHERE THE LOW LEVEL JET APPEARS MAXIMIZED. AS THIS FEATURE MOVES THROUGH SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT/DRYLINE SHIFTS FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH EASTERN NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA.
1221 PM EDT SAT MAY 9 2015 A COLD FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL STALL NEAR LAKE ERIE BY SUNDAY.
CLOUDS AND PRECIP SHOULD CAP TEMPS FROM AROUND 80 NEAR WALNUT RIDGE TO MID 80S AT TUPELO. UPPER RIDGE BETWEEN ANA AND THE UPPER TROF MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL U.
THIS DRY AIR COMBINED WITH STABLE WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO WILL MAKE FOR ANOTHER SUNNY AND WARM DAY OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA.
742 AM EDT SAT MAY 9 2015 WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHILE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS TO THE NORTH. LOW PRESSURE.
924 AM EDT SAT MAY 9 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC TODAY.
Latest sfc analysis shows the dryline extending from near KCMN-KPEQ- KFST, and extending into the Big Bend Area, under SW flow aloft as an upper lvl trough approaches the 4 Corners. An upper trough will begin to move over the region this afternoon with the base of the trough passing over the CWA. High winds at the base of the trough will mix downward over the Guadalupe Mountains this afternoon. Due to model persistence in showing these high winds, decided to upgrade the High Wind Watch to a High Wind Warning for the Guadalupe Pass. Temperatures this afternoon will be slightly cooler than yesterday as lower 500 mb heights move over the region. The upper trough will be over the central conus on Sunday with the dryline quickly mixing eastward during the afternoon.
CURRENT THOUGHT IS THAT MORNING CONVECTION SHOULD PUSH EAST AND NORTHEAST SUFFICIENTLY EARLY THAT THE AIRMASS TO THE EAST OF THE DRYLINE WILL RECOVER SUFFICIENTLY THAT ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR DURING THE AFTN HOURS FROM THE HIGH PLAINS BACK SOUTH INTO THE OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES. APPEARS THAT WESTERN/NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE OKLAHOMA WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR THESE MOST SEVERE STORMS. LATE NIGHT REDEVELOPMENT LOOKS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA AND THEN AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON ALONG AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT.
No changes to today's forecast as high pressure briefly builds in.
627 AM CDT SAT MAY 9 2015 FOR 12Z TAFS /ISSUED 319 AM CDT SAT MAY 9 2015/ THE UPPER RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN DOMINATING THE WEATHER IS FINALLY BREAKING DOWN AND SHIFTING OFF TO THE EAST WHILE SUBTROPICAL STORM ANA CONTINUES TO ROTATE OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST.
/ISSUED 356 AM CDT SAT MAY 9 2015/ CURRENTLY TEMPERATURES ARE WARM IN THE LOW TO MID 70S WITH A SOUTHERLY WIND AND CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER KEEPING THE TEMPERATURES UP. THE UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.
MAKES SENSE GIVEN WARM FRONT PROGGD TO STAY SOUTH OF WI THROUGH AT LEAST 00Z MON. A COLD FRONT ACCELERATED DOWN LAKE MI AND IS AIDING IN BREAKING UP THE FOG. HIGH TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM 70F OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WI TO THE LOWER TO MID 50S OVER FAR ERN WI.
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. MODERATE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT /ON THE EASTERN FLANK OF THE UPPER RIDGE/ SUPPORTS BREEZY NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS THIS MORNING ALONG THE ID/NV BORDER ON THE NRN FRINGE OF UPPER LOW IN SRN UTAH. DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MASS LATER TODAY AS A NARROW UPPER RIDGE COMES IN FROM THE NW COAST. UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL PASS THROUGH OUR CWA TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AS THE NEXT GULF OF ALASKA TROUGH APPROACHES THE NW COAST. WE BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH A RIDGE MOVING EAST OUT OF THE REGION.
AIR TEMPERATURES IN KEYS ISLAND COMMUNITIES ARE RISING THROUGH THE LOWER 80S. AS A WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD WESTWARD.
A RETURN OF THE LOW CLOUDS IS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FINALLY BREAKING DOWN AS CONVECTION FROM AN OVERNIGHT SYSTEM IS MOVING NNE TOWARDS THE AREA. BUT DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY CLOUDS MOVE IN COULD DAMPEN THE HIGHS FOR TODAY.
1115 AM CDT SAT MAY 9 2015 HAVE CLEANED UP THE GRIDS TO REDUCE POPS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA AND CONFINE THEM TO OK PNHDL AND ERN TX PNHDL FOR THIS AFTERNOON AS DRY SLOT ASSOCIATED WITH EJECTING UPPER LEVEL LOW INVADES THE REGION. /ISSUED 440 AM CDT SAT MAY 9 2015/ COLD FRONT FROM YESTERDAY WAS REINFORCED BY OUTFLOW. AND IS IN THE PROCESS OF BEING OVERTAKEN BY INCOMING PACIFIC COLD FRONT. THREAT ENDS ABRUPTLY BY 7 PM WHEN MORE STABLE AIR ARRIVES WITH PACIFIC COLD FRONT.
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS LAST EVENING SHOWED A LOW OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA AND A RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE GULF TO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. AT THE SURFACE FLOW WAS FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST KEEPING MOIST AIR IN PLACE WITH DEW POINT TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 70S ACROSS OUR CWA. THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY SUNDAY EVENING. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BE FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND THIS WILL PREVENT THE DRYLINE FROM MOVING INTO OUR FORECAST AREA TODAY. SUNDAY A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH WEST TEXAS AND THIS MAY SPREAD THUNDERSTORMS FARTHER SOUTH.
1048 AM EDT SAT MAY 9 2015 A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THIS WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE.
550 AM MDT SAT MAY 9 2015 AN ACTIVE WEATHER SCENARIO WILL UNFOLD TODAY AS A STRONG UPPER LOW OVER ARIZONA MOVES SLOWLY NORTHEAST TO COLORADO BY THIS EVENING. A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL LIFT OUT AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW EARLY THIS MORNING WHICH WILL BRING A ROUND OF PRECIP AFTER DAYBREAK. BUT AS THE FIRST TROUGH APPROACHES AM ANTICIPATING DEVELOPMENT OF ELEVATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STARTING IN OUR SW COUNTIES BY 6 AM AND WORKING UP TO I-70 BY MID-MORNING. AS THE UPPER LOW APPROACHES COLORADO LATER TODAY. 0-6 KM WIND SHEAR WILL INCREASE TO 70 KTS BY MIDDAY AS A STRONG 500 MB JET WORKS IT WAY AROUND THE UPPER LOW AND SPREADS ACROSS THE AREA.
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST USA AND AN ASSOCIATED TROUGH EXTENDING THROUGH MONTANA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST TODAY.
A SHARP UPPER RIDGE, WITH AN AXIS ALONG THE COAST, WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EAST TODAY AND TONIGHT.
UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD FROM THE WEST WITH DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS TODAY. THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST INTO LAKE COUNTY ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE WEST OF THE CASCADES AS UPSTREAM TROUGH APPROACHES THE COAST WHILE EAST SIDE COULD BE THE WARMEST DAY. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL WEAKEN AND SLIDE TO THE OREGON-IDAHO BORDER BY SUNDAY EVENING. THE PACIFIC UPPER LOW WILL DEEPEN AND APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH INSTABILITY INCREASING OVER THE REGION. THE SURFACE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO COME ASHORE SUNDAY MORNING THEN MOVING INTO THE KLAMATH BASIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL HOLD OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH THE CONTINUATION OF MILD SUMMER-LIKE WEATHER. THE RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN A BIT MORE BY SUNDAY AND COULD LEAD TO SLIGHTLY BETTER COVERAGE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. GOING WITH PERSISTENCE ON TEMPERATURES AS WE SHOULD SEE HIGHS REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S THIS WEEKEND WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S VALLEYS TO 60S RIDGES. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL BE FILLING AS IT LIFTS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD SUNDAY NIGHT. THE LOW EVENTUALLY BECOMES AN OPEN WAVE AS IT PROGRESSES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION SQUASHING THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WHICH HAS BROUGHT US THE UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER OF LATE.
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BRING WARM AND DRY WEATHER TO WESTERN WASHINGTON TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHING THE REGION WILL INCREASE THE ONSHORE FLOW TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING CLOUDS. THE UPPER BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND ABUNDANT SHOWER ACTIVITY. AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL PASS DIRECTLY OVER WRN WA THIS AFTN. A STRONG BLOCKING UPPER HIGH WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER NRN B. THIS WILL ACT AS A BARRIER TO FORWARD PROGRESS FOR THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS CURRENTLY OUT NEAR 140W. WITH THE SOUTHERN END OF THE TROUGH PINCHING OFF AS A CLOSED UPPER LOW WEST OF THE WA COAST BY SUNDAY EVNG. PUSHING MARINE CLOUDS AND FOG FURTHER INLAND THROUGH THE LOWER CHEHALIS VALLEY.
734 AM EDT SAT MAY 9 2015 RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN. TODAY WILL BE JUST A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 20 DEGREES WARMER THAN SEASONAL NORMALS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COOLER THAN TODAY BUT STILL WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS ON SUNDAY.
935 AM EDT SAT MAY 9 2015 A COLD FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL STALL NEAR LAKE ERIE BY SUNDAY.
An upper level low is currently located across the southwestern U. Energy from this low is spreading northeast into the southern Plains.
IFR CIGS/VSBYS FROM KROW NORTH AND EAST TO KTCC MAY HOLD STRONG THRU 12Z AS A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE WEST IS SLOWING ITS PROGRESS. LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THRU SUNRISE.
415 AM EST MON NOV 30 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NEW ENGLAND STATES WILL DRIFT SOUTHEASTWARD OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THIS AFTERNOON.
347 AM CST MON NOV 30 2015 A weak warm front will lift north across the region today, but it will not be significant enough to even generate much in the way of precipitation. The warm frontal passage is associated with a rather intense upper level low that will be moving northeast through the northern Plains/upper Midwest. A cold front will be quick to follow tonight, and will produce a better chance of showers, especially in wrn KY and sw IN where moisture will have a better opportunity to return.
101 AM EST MON NOV 30 2015 A DIFFUSE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND STALL.
STG SRN STREAM TROF CURRENTLY OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WL BECOME PROGRESSIVE AS WELL. HIGHS SHOULD BE A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AND HIGH ENOUGH TO PREVENT ANY FREEZING PROBLEMS IN THE NORTH. AT THIS TIME THE SLEET THREAT SEEMS LIKE THE LOWEST PROBABILITY SO WILL LEAVE THIS PRECIPITATION TYPE OUT OF THE CURRENT TAFS.
BUT AS A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW. RAIN AND WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON.