Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
The cold front has pushed through central Florida and is now located over southwest Florida. The front will continue to move southeast through the night as high pressure tot he northwest builds over the southeast U. Temperatures along the Nature Coast are already in the low to mid 50's, low to mid 60's near Tampa Bay and low 70's over southwest Florida. Temps are expected to continue to drop overnight with low dipping in the low 40's along the Nature Coast, low 50's near Tampa and near 60 over southwest Florida. Temps will be cooler over the inland areas and slightly warmer along the coastal region. Winds will continue to increase as the gradient tightens between a frontal boundary over southern Florida and high pressure to the northwest.
554 PM EST Sun Nov 19 2017 Dry and cool high pressure will build across the area through Monday. Moisture will return mid to late week as the weak low pressure develops over the Gulf of Mexico. An upper-level trough over the eastern CONUS will move offshore tonight. A dry air mass combined with diminishing winds and clear skies will allow temperatures to cool into the low to mid 30s. Dry and cool air mass over the area Monday with temperatures ranging from the upper 50s north to the lower 60s south.
Will see this trend continue this evening into tonight downstream of high pressure building in from the lower to mid Mississippi Valley. This has impacted the CWA, keeping moisture in the form of low clouds across the region as well as some sprinkles (and flurries in the highest terrain) throughout the morning and early afternoon. Made adjustments to the valley winds and temps, lowering them based on the decoupling that is likely to take place with high pressure overhead, especially Monday night under the more southerly flow. The period will be dominated by a general longwave trough over the eastern CONUS, and periodic impulses rotating through to affect the trough's amplitude and position.
633 PM EST Sun Nov 19 2017 Aviation A high pressure ridge will build in and bring fair weather tonight through Monday.
Dry high pressure will settle over the region with NW winds becoming calm overnight.
923 PM EST Sun Nov 19 2017 High pressure builds southwest of the region tonight, eventually offshore Monday into Monday night.
/28/ Tonight through Monday: The primary concern for the near term will be the freezing temperatures expected late tonight into early Monday as chilly high pressure settles over the ArkLaMiss region. The forecast is tricky regarding freeze warnings as locations that will be coldest tonight have already experienced a killing freeze (late October) and locations that have yet to fall below freezing are looking at a marginal freeze scenario. Both the North Atlantic and Arctic Oscillations (NAO/AO) will be in negative phases with a strong blocking ridge over Greenland. This regime favors troughing along the East Coast and thus resulting in prolonged dry northwest flow across the Deep South.
Some colder air around freezing remains and the snow was accumulating on roadways and the interstate and minor accumulations were added for this evening.
Current temp trends have cooled mainly into the mid/upper 30s at many locations, and given the presence of high pressure at the sfc building ewd into the region, clr skies/optimal radiational cooling conditons will allow temps to continue falling below 30F after midnight. High temperatures should recover into the low/mid 50s. Continued mostly clear and not as cool Monday night with lows in the low/mid 30s. This will make for a cooler mid-week, with highs in the lower 50s.
Pockets of freezing rain are possible, however these occurrences will be quite isolated. Black ice will be the greatest risk to low elevations, with low temperatures hovering around freezing Monday morning.
Mid and high-level clouds continue to stream over the region in advance of a strong upper level low headed in from the west. Snow levels will rise as a warm front moves in, and by tomorrow afternoon will range from around 4500 feet in east to 8000 feet in the west. High clouds are spreading rapidly east across Oregon and western Idaho this afternoon as a Pacific warm front approaches.
701 PM EST Sun Nov 19 2017 High pressure and dry conditions will build into the region through Monday. This will allow the low level flow to gradually back around to more of a westerly flow overnight.
A weak cold front will approach the Florida Keys overnight.
High pressure aloft will remain over the region through tonight. A weak weather disturbance will graze northern Utah and southwest Wyoming on Monday, followed by the return of high pressure by midweek.
In fact, a mesolow over north-central Lake Superior will potentially help support the higher end of these totals over easter Alger County and northern Luce County. Monday: As the aforementioned high pressure system slides to the east, south winds will increase, allowing for more WAA into the area. Also, with the warm air advection, temperatures are expected to warmer, with highs reaching into the upper 30s to around 40 degrees in most locations.
829 PM CST Sun Nov 19 2017 High pressure has settled over the Mid-South this evening allowing temperatures to plummet. Current temperatures range from the lower 30s to lower 40s. High pressure is currently over north Texas this afternoon. The high will slide east across the forecast area tonight. The high will slide to our east by Monday afternoon allowing winds to shift to the south and bring milder air into the region with highs expected to reach the mid 50s.
836 PM CST Sun Nov 19 2017 High pressure ridge axis extends from the southern Mississippi region into east central IL this evening as it moves eastward. Winds and gusts have been increased a bit for tonight and tomorrow to account for the pressure gradient between the high moving into the southeast and a low moving into the upper Midwest/southern Canada region. once the ridge axis slips to the east. High pressure will keep the Midwest dry through Monday. even as the temperatures warm slightly with the more southwesterly flow ushering warmer temps into Central IL. setting up a more amplified flow aloft and a temperature rollercoaster btwn dry cold fronts and short warming trends. Still spawning a piece of that energy down into the southeastern CONUS, NAM stronger with a closed low.
/issued 345 PM CST Sun Nov 19 2017/ The main story for today is the much cooler and drier air in place as high pressure continues building into the region. The Alexandria area will see lows hovering near freezing Monday morning. Cooler temperatures will again be the main story on Monday, maxing out in the mid-60s for most of the region during the afternoon.
The second will be a cold front pushing into the region from the north that will give much of south-central Montana a chance for rain and snow showers. The strongest winds will occur from 6pm tonight to 6am Monday before an approaching cold front from the north gradually reduces the pressure gradient through the morning and early afternoon hours. By Monday afternoon the cold front begins entering northern portions of the forecast area by Roundup and Miles City.
528 PM CST Sun Nov 19 2017 High pressure will dominate across the region during the period with widespread VFR conditions expected. Temperatures will be overall cooler than normal to start, then warm toward the end of the week. Aloft, the deep upper low pressure trough has moved to the eastern U.
1058 PM EST Sun Nov 19 2017 A strong cold front has moved through New Hampshire and western Maine with a cold west wind behind it.
Expect variable high clouds this week as high pressure strengthens over Arizona.
A ridge of high pressure will cross the southwest US this week keeping the weather dry.
Widespread freezing temperatures for eastern valleys tonight, then daytime temperatures rebound quickly to near record or record levels by Thanksgiving. Strong high pressure aloft centered west of the Baja California spur near 25N/120W and ridge axis extended northward into northern California this afternoon. Meanwhile, clear skies were across southeast Arizona with some cirriform clouds moving eastward and over the ridge axis into southern California. For locales east of Tucson tonight, the combination of clear skies, light winds, and a very dry regime will allow for fairly widespread freezing temperatures to occur. The ridge axis will amplify over southern California into the Great Basin area Monday.
429 PM CST Sun Nov 19 2017 Tonight through Monday: The primary concern for the near term will be the freezing temperatures expected late tonight into early Monday as chilly high pressure settles over the ArkLaMiss region. The forecast is tricky regarding freeze warnings as locations that will be coldest tonight have already experienced a killing freeze (late October) and locations that have yet to fall below freezing are looking at a marginal freeze scenario. Both the North Atlantic and Arctic Oscillations (NAO/AO) will be in negative phases with a strong blocking ridge over Greenland. This regime favors troughing along the East Coast and thus resulting in prolonged dry northwest flow across the Deep South.
Much cooler and drier air in place behind the departed cold front. Chattanooga Airport, TN 29 55 38 58 / 0 0 0 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 26 53 35 56 / 0 0 0 10 Oak Ridge, TN 26 53 36 56 / 0 0 0 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 25 50 33 53 / 0 0 0 10.
1001 PM EST Sun Nov 19 2017 Dry and cool high pressure will build across the area through Monday.
459 PM CST Sun Nov 19 2017 Quiet and mild weather will continue through the night as a surface warm front continues to loiter in north central/northeast areas of ND.
Light winds will gradually become more southeasterly throughout the day on Monday as high pressure shifts further to the east of the region. This won't last long, tho, as the high is slated to move east with onshore flow returning late tonight into Monday. Deep moisture in the lower levels is expected to be slow to return but be sufficient enough for isolated shower activity mainly across the waters for Monday and Monday night. This should be aided by mid level lift from an approaching long wave trough and nosing in of the upper jet from the west. Temperatures are expected to be warmer for Monday, with highs reaching into the lower 70s across most locations, with a few locations still near the upper 60s especially farther north along the coast toward Port O'Connor and Port Lavaca.
Previous forecast had a mention of patchy fog tonight until southwest flow increases behind warm front that moves through around 09 UTC, and this still looks reasonable. Temperatures quite a bit warmer tonight with the warm front and increasing high clouds. Quiet and mild weather will continue through the night as a surface warm front continues to loiter in north central/northeast areas of ND.
Cloud cover will be increasing the next 24 hours, with a mid level short wave trough moving toward the area from upstream tonight, and moving over the area on Monday. The combination of upper lift and high pressure shifting east, such that surface winds veer to east and southeast later on Monday, with a return of Gulf moisture, should be enough to trigger isolated showers during the day. /issued 236 PM CST Sun Nov 19 2017/ SHORT TERM (Now through Monday Night): A very nice, albeit cooler day across deep south Texas. In fact, moisture seems to be slightly higher with this impulse than with the cold front that moved through last night.
A warm advection pattern on swly winds will develop tonight and last into Monday evening as strong high pressure moves ewd across the se USA and strong low pressure moves ewd across srn Canada. High Forecast Confidence Filtered sunshine is occurring across most of the region this afternoon, with afternoon high temperatures topping out around the freezing mark.
1011 PM EST Sun Nov 19 2017 High pressure and dry conditions will build into the region through Monday.
1030 PM EST Sun Nov 19 2017 A cold front continues to press south and will push south of Martin county overnight.
432 PM CST Sun Nov 19 2017 Quiet and mild weather will continue through the night as a surface warm front continues to loiter in north central/northeast areas of ND.
645 PM EST Sun Nov 19 2017 High pressure will build overhead late tonight and Monday.
Quiet and mild weather will continue through the night as a surface warm front continues to loiter in north central/northeast areas of ND.
Much colder and drier air has advected into the region as high pressure builds in from the northwest.
906 PM EST Sun Nov 19 2017 High pressure will build overhead late tonight and Monday.
Breezy swly winds will develop and turn nwly with the passage of a cold front for Tue aft. A warm advection pattern on swly winds will develop tonight and last into Monday evening as strong high pressure moves ewd across the se USA and strong low pressure moves ewd across srn Canada. High Forecast Confidence Filtered sunshine is occurring across most of the region this afternoon, with afternoon high temperatures topping out around the freezing mark.
Strong inversions in place for the valleys will keep generally light winds and seasonable afternoon temperatures as high pressure strengthens aloft. Clouds overnight will help to moderate the lows tonight, so temperatures early Monday will be more mild than the past couple of mornings. Winds will pick up a bit on Monday, which will allow for some mixing of the lower valleys.
This should help to drag min temps up a few degrees from those experienced this morning but still a few degrees below the warmer MAV guidance.
/Issued 214 PM EST Sun Nov 19 2017/ Ridge of high pressure dominating period as it slides southeast into the region. With gradient winds set to lax overnight under clear skies, the radiational cooling component will take over from the advection process and allow for widespread locations reaching the freezing mark. With this shift in the low level fetch and a quick transition from NW flow aloft to amplifying SW flow east of a developing northern Gulf trough, we should see some moisture return off the Atlantic coast Monday night, which should allow for a low level cloud deck pushing in across the southern majority of the area after midnight.
633 PM EST Sun Nov 19 2017 Dry and cool high pressure will build across the area through Monday.
527 PM CST Sun Nov 19 2017 150 PM CST High pressure is centered over the southern Great Plains this afternoon with ridging extending into the Upper Midwest. Ridge axis will gradually traverse the CWA this evening and tonight with winds backing to the southwest behind. Expect highs right around 50F during the day Monday with mostly sunny skies and breezy southwest winds on the backside of the ridge which will settle across the Tennessee Valley. Deubelbeiss 212 PM CST Still relatively warmer at the start of the period with upper level trough and surface reflection well to the north.
856 PM EST Sun Nov 19 2017 A strong cold front has moved through New Hampshire and western Maine with a cold west wind behind it.
636 PM EST Sun Nov 19 2017 Snow showers will diminish after midnight as the upper low moves east. Dry and seasonal conditions are expected through midweek before another cold front crosses. The aforementioned high pressure will help to shunt moisture below efficient snow growth, thus, with minimal accumulation expected after midnight.
Conditions will linger below freezing for the majority of our area. /12/ Prior discussion below: Tonight through Monday: The primary concern for the near term will be the freezing temperatures expected late tonight into early Monday as chilly high pressure settles over the ArkLaMiss region. The forecast is tricky regarding freeze warnings as locations that will be coldest tonight have already experienced a killing freeze (late October) and locations that have yet to fall below freezing are looking at a marginal freeze scenario. Both the North Atlantic and Arctic Oscillations (NAO/AO) will be in negative phases with a strong blocking ridge over Greenland. This regime favors troughing along the East Coast and thus resulting in prolonged dry northwest flow across the Deep South.
707 PM EST Sun Nov 19 2017 A strong cold front has moved through New Hampshire and western Maine with a cold west wind behind it.
May see a few cirrus make it in from the northwest later tonight, but temperatures will continue to steadily drop into the low-mid 20s. Will see this trend continue this evening into tonight downstream of high pressure building in from the lower to mid Mississippi Valley. This has impacted the CWA, keeping moisture in the form of low clouds across the region as well as some sprinkles (and flurries in the highest terrain) throughout the morning and early afternoon. Made adjustments to the valley winds and temps, lowering them based on the decoupling that is likely to take place with high pressure overhead, especially Monday night under the more southerly flow. The period will be dominated by a general longwave trough over the eastern CONUS, and periodic impulses rotating through to affect the trough's amplitude and position.
/issued 332 PM EST Sun Nov 19 2017/ A weak cold front will approach and move through the region tonight bringing slightly cooler temperatures to South Florida. This front will have very little moisture to work with as it passes through, so the rain chances will be low, however, the highest chances tonight will be confined to the east coast as well as the marine areas.
The cold front will push through the region tonight, however it will not have a lot of moisture to work with. /issued 332 PM EST Sun Nov 19 2017/ A weak cold front will approach and move through the region tonight bringing slightly cooler temperatures to South Florida. This front will have very little moisture to work with as it passes through, so the rain chances will be low, however, the highest chances tonight will be confined to the east coast as well as the marine areas.
/Issued 214 PM EST Sun Nov 19 2017/ Ridge of high pressure dominating period as it slides southeast into the region. With gradient winds set to lax overnight under clear skies, the radiational cooling component will take over from the advection process and allow for widespread locations reaching the freezing mark. With this shift in the low level fetch and a quick transition from NW flow aloft to amplifying SW flow east of a developing northern Gulf trough, we should see some moisture return off the Atlantic coast Monday night, which should allow for a low level cloud deck pushing in across the southern majority of the area after midnight. Shifting high pressure will bring winds quickly to the east after 13z and southeast by 17z tomorrow.
/issued 330 AM CDT Wed Jun 28 2017/ Upper trof over the East Coast continues to depart to the e this morning, and weakness/disturbance over the nrn Gulf continues to generate convection along the TX/LA coast.
Heat index values of this level are not climatologically odd, but given the recent cooler and drier conditions, impacts from this heat and humidity could still occur if appropriate precautions are not taken. /Issued 336 AM CDT Wed Jun 28 2017/ Breezy southerly winds will advect warmer and more humid air north into the area today and Thursday.
625 AM CDT Wed Jun 28 2017 Main story tonight has been the convection ahead of short wave and associated trof. Convection will continue to move east and we may see a few lingering showers in the morning, but main story will be the trof passing through the area and swinging the winds around to the west northwest. Temperatures will be comprable to those of yesterday, but will feel a little cooler with the northwesterly surface flow. Trough digs into the northern Rockies and northern High Plains on Thursday.
The upper level trough will continue to revolve eastward and move into the Northern Rockies today with the closed low moving more into Saskatchewan while zonal flow prevails in the mid-levels aloft overhead. Otherwise, lapse rates are supportive with 700-500 and 850-500 exceeding 8 C/km in much of the High Plains and southwest NEB. Current thinking is convection will initiate across the High Plains and move into and across western NEB this evening into the small hours. The front should be mostly southeast of our area by peak heating, and this would be where the higher potential for stronger storms would be.
638 AM CDT Wed Jun 28 2017 /12Z TAFS/ Low cloud development/expansion over our southern and some eastern counties will affect our southern TAF sites, with KSJT near the northern edge of the low cloud field. Temperatures will be a few degrees warmer for highs today, as a low-level thermal ridge begins to build east into our area. Lows tonight will be a little warmer than the previous night as south winds continue.
927 AM EDT Wed Jun 28 2017 Canadian high pressure will drift offshore the Mid-Atlantic coast tonight. High pressure will extend into the region from the east on Thursday.
A brief mid/upper level transitory ridge progresses through western and central ND this afternoon. Global models show some precipitation approaching the western border by 00z Thursday, while the higher resolution models produce some showers this afternoon in the west. Looking farther upstream, a mid/upper level closed low was seen circulating over central Alberta. This upper low is forecast to slide into southeast ALberta this evening, then into southwest Saskatchewan by 12z Thursday.
The latest surface analysis centers this high roughly over West Virginia, with much of eastern CONUS under its influence. Meanwhile, latest H5 analysis extends a trough axis from eastern Canada southward along the east coast. Slight upper ridging is evident to the west of the local region, with resultant northwest flow currently in place over the Mid-South.
/Issued 336 AM CDT Wed Jun 28 2017/ Breezy southerly winds will advect warmer and more humid air north into the area today and Thursday.
Expect another day of windy and dry conditions today as low pressure moves through the Great Basin.
Increased southwest downslope surface flow will assist in raising temperatures as we shift to more zonal flow, as the center of the high pressure to our southwest gets pushed farther south.
This will begin to change today as the high pressure ridge currently located to our northeast pushes off the Atlantic seaboard this afternoon and gets a weak return flow started once again.
Marine air and stratus filtering inland on onshore winds will persist causing near to slightly cooler than normal temperatures today.
1244 PM EDT Wed Jun 28 2017 High pressure will pass north of the region this afternoon, then shift into the Atlantic Thursday.
Another dry day ahead with warmer temperatures but still relatively low humidity.
Latest radar trends and short term guidance suggests it will get as far south as the highway 50 corridor and perhaps to highway 54. The effective surface front/trough is expected to be situated just north and west of the forecast area near peak heating with a moderate to very unstable airmass over central Kansas. The instability and shear combo will support a few severe storms just before sunset with another area of convection and potential MCS development organizing a bit further west across the high Plains this evening before moving/propagating eastward again across central Kansas tonight. This activity could also be marginally severe with warmer temperatures aloft likely limiting development over far southern Kansas. A more significant upper trof is still expected to move across the northern/central Plains on Thursday into Thursday night.
A dry cold front will cross northern and central Utah this afternoon and tonight then push through southern Utah Thursday night.
716 AM EDT Wed Jun 28 2017 VFR conditions throughout the TAF period with high pressure remaining in control.
Deterministic and ensemble output suggest that the N-S upper trough axis/weakness in the 500mb heights will remain quasi- stationary over the ERN CWA/MSA during the period. The GFS predicts greater 1000-500mb thickness values over the CWA Thursday, which is reflected in the higher maximum temperature forecast.
Surface winds will be breezy but may decrease some during the afternoon as a cold front approaches.