Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
A broad area of high pressure will build over the area through the rest of the week. This high pressure will bring a warm and dry airmass to the area. A high-amplitude ridge continues to build into the Great Basin this evening. Patches of thin cirrus along the leading edge of the ridge will continue to rotate across eastern Utah and southwest Wyoming through late this evening. Otherwise, a dry, stable and warmer airmass will be in place through late this week. VFR conditions continue at the SLC terminal through the valid TAF period as high pressure moves in.
With cooler air moving in and a tightening gradient, expect winds to reach wind advsy criteria over the coastal counties overnight so will keep that going as advertised.
1015 PM MDT Wed May 3 2017 19z surface analysis had boundary from northern MN to eastern CO with weak high pressure behind it over the western reaches of the CWA.
The cold front will move through the region tonight. The upper low looks to take a little longer to move out of the region, which should allow for some wraparound moisture and light rain to affect mainly northeast portions of the forecast area tomorrow. This will also bring lingering clouds and cooler temperatures. /28/ At the start of the period, a closed mid/upper-level low is progged to be located over western TN with a surface cold front well to our east over portions of AL and GA. A much drier and cooler airmass will continue to be advected in across the ArkLaMiss within the NW flow.
815 PM MDT Wed May 3 2017 Some mid and high level clouds will move across the forecast area tonight ahead of high pressure ridging that will move over the state during the next couple of days.
744 PM EDT Wed May 3 2017 High pressure will briefly build into the region overnight with clear skies and light winds.
811 PM CDT Wed May 3 2017 Surface map this evening shows a low centered near Shreveport with a warm front extending northeastward from the low right up through the northwest corner of Middle Tennessee.
The cold front and its associated convective activity is continuing to move further off the coast tonight. With cooler air moving in and a tightening gradient, expect winds to reach wind advsy criteria over the coastal counties overnight so will keep that going as advertised.
1051 PM EDT Wed May 3 2017 High pressure will briefly build into the region overnight with clear skies and light winds.
845 PM CDT Wed May 3 2017 We should remain under a cirrus canopy of various opaqueness tonight as low pressure organizes and passes to the south of Wisconsin on Thursday.
Cold front should continue to pick up speed and move through the area by 06Z. Cold front will be a little slower to move into the region this evening. Front was located near a College Station to San Marcos to Del Rio line with a pre-frontal trough located from Conroe to Cotullaat 23Z. Expect the cold front will reach VCT around 02Z, and ALI/CRP/LRD around 03Z. Concerned that pre-frontal trough will diminish available instability over the region before the low level forcing from the cold front needed to overcome convective inhibition arrives.
638 PM CDT Wed May 3 2017 The upper low will slow move through the region through the evening and overnight hours. Tomorrow afternoon, on the back side of the upper trough, there continues to be an indication that weak and shallow instability will build, leading to isolated to perhaps scattered showers. Once this low moves east, a strong upper ridge builds across the center of the country. With a trough over both coasts, this should evolve into an omega block type pattern, giving us a prolonged period of dry weather with temperatures warming into the 80s.
735 PM EDT Wed May 3 2017 Surface analysis indicates an area of low pressure remains to our north across the Great Lakes and northern Ohio Valley and we are seeing winds NE to E for the most part this afternoon. All eyes will turn to a deepening trough across Central part of the CONUS by Thursday. Models remain in good agreement with this upper level low closing off and deepening across the Middle Mississippi River Valley region by morning. This will lead to wind gusts of 30 to 40 mph particularly in the Lake Cumberland region and the higher terrain. However, the better upper level forcing for assent and cold front will move east by the evening. Given the nature of the low pressure it will lead to the potential for dry slotting in the wake of the cold front.
828 PM EDT Wed May 3 2017 Slow moving low pressure will maintain rain chances through the weekend. This and abundant mid level cloudiness are in response to the onset of warm, moist advection on the extreme eastern flank of deepening low pressure ovr the Central Conus. On Thursday, the aforementioned low is projected to dig deeply,and cutoff over the Lower Ohio Valley.
Low pressure will track northeast through the Ohio Valley, far enough south to keep the rain shield and lower clouds well south of Wisconsin. Winds will become dominant out of the northeast on Thursday as the low pushes into southern Indiana, headed toward Lake Erie.
1155 PM CDT Wed May 3 2017 For the ArkLaTex, the cold front is nearing KIER and KRSN and should clear Monroe in the wee hours. Most sites Texas will be returning to VFR overnight with the low clouds remaining elsewhere until the cooler air deepens.
Maliawco Previous Discussion: Canadian high pressure slided across eastern Montana today and then through the northern plains on Wednesday. Cool temperatures and light winds anticipated today under the high, and good radiational cooling will again drop temperatures into the 40s or perhaps a little lower tonight. Winds turn around to the southeast on Wednesday with the high across the plains. Temperatures head back to near or slightly above normal with upper ridge over the Rockies translating eastward slightly.
803 AM EDT Tue Sep 5 2017 A cold front will progress very slowly across the state during the day Tuesday, bringing showers and some strong thunderstorms.
For 12z Aviation discussion below Northwest winds in the wake of the cold front along with dewpoints in the low/mid 40s have prohibited fog formation overnight, despite clear skies and recent rainfall. The deep trough that is over us this morning will continue slowly sliding east this week and will be over the Canadian Maritimes this weekend. In it's wake, ridging moves in from the west, with the upper jet getting forced up to nearly the Canadian Arctic. We still have some pops lingering Wednesday out in Ladysmith and Eau Claire as they will still be under the influence of cyclonic flow with the upper low.
Combined seas expected to remain 2-3 near shore waters and 3-5 ft outer legs through Wed evening as winds shift offshore Wed then to the NW late Wed night/early Thu trailing cold front passage.
1021 AM EDT Tue Sep 5 2017 Showery weather and well below normal temperatures can be expected through the week until high pressure returns this weekend.
517 AM MDT Tue Sep 5 2017 Currently, the ridge off to our west has continued to dominate our area. Expecting a slightly cooler and dryer trend for the area due to an airmass being brought in today from the north.
624 AM CDT Tue Sep 5 2017 Cold front is pushing through LBB TAF site at this issuance with winds just turning to the north. /issued 225 AM CDT Tue Sep 5 2017/ The long-awaited cold front is on the doorstep early this morning, south of I-40 at the time of writing. The front should be south of the forecast area by 9 AM, and with high pressure building in behind the front northeast winds will become breezy. Surface ridging will shift east of the area during the day Wednesday with return flow setting up during the afternoon and temperatures at or a bit above those expected for today.
A cold front will continue to progress SE from the Ohio Valley into the Tennessee Valley later today, bringing good chances for showers and thunderstorms to the area, especially from the early/mid afternoon through this evening. Another cluster of storms associated with an earlier pre-frontal trough/outflow boundary is currently dropping south into the Northern Middle Tennessee. By this afternoon, the upper-trough will magnify over the western Great lakes as the cold front pushes southward into the Tennessee Valley. A 30-40 kt LLJ feature will rotate over the region between 21-00z helping to increase the low- level shear. A strong push of cooler, drier air will filter into the area by Wednesday morning, bringing a swift end to precipitation thereafter and help to diminish cloud cover over much of Northern Alabama by 12z Wednesday.
926 AM EDT Tue Sep 5 2017 Flow aloft over the region this morning is generally west-southwest as Florida resides between a ridge to the south and a deepening trough to the north. At the surface, high pressure is stretched across the northern peninsula, with a rather light low-level southeast flow in place. Fairly weak high pressure remains over the waters through Wednesday, with light winds and seas.
929 AM EDT Tue Sep 5 2017 A cold front will slowly push into the state from Quebec later this afternoon.
1051 AM EDT Tue Sep 5 2017 A cold front will progress very slowly across the state during the day today, bringing showers and some strong thunderstorms.
608 AM CDT Tue Sep 5 2017 WV imagery this morning showing a highly anomalous upstream ridge pretty much overing the wrn half of the CONUS with a broad trof covering the ern section of the country. At the sfc, a cold front was situated across cntrl KS into cntrl MO. a large area of high pressure was building southward out of Canada into the northern Plains. Models indicating the highly amplified pattern over the CONUS will hold with dry conditions heading into this weekend. With no significant thermal advection anticipated, max temps will remain slightly below normal today and Wednesday with highs topping out on the low/mid 70s.
905 AM EDT Tue Sep 5 2017 Moisture will begin to increase today ahead of an approaching cold front today.
1140 AM CDT Tue Sep 5 2017 Cold front extends from across S AR from and KMEM and KHOT through extreme SE OK and just S of the Red River across N TX this Tuesday morning. /issued 1133 AM CDT Tue Sep 5 2017/ At 16z, the cold front was located just south of the Red River between Oklahoma and Texas and extends east-northeast into Central Arkansas. /issued 640 AM CDT Tue Sep 5 2017/ VFR conditions to prevail throughout the TAF pd, although shwrs/tstms will be possible this afternoon through tonight as a cold front moves across the region.
A cold front will move through the region tonight turning the winds to the northeast around midnight at AUS and a few hours later in San Antonio and by sunrise at DRT. Early morning surface observations show a cold front oriented from southwest to northeast across Oklahoma. This cold front will make steady southward progress today, and should move into central Texas late this afternoon. For tonight, the cold front will continue to move southward and we should see at least isolated showers and storms develop along the boundary. The cold front should manage to clear the region Wednesday morning. Otherwise, Wednesday's high temperatures behind the front will range from the mid-80s in the Hill Country to the lower and mid 90s along the Rio Grande.
The Atlc ridge axis extends from Bermuda acrs central FL and well into the ern GOMex. A hi amp frontal trough over the MS River Valley press eastward today and shunt the Atlc ridge into the south half of the FL peninsula.
1158 AM EDT Tue Sep 5 2017 Moisture will begin to increase today ahead of an approaching cold front today.
Cold front has already made it thru KHOB/KMAF, and may be gusty for a few hrs this afternoon. A cold front currently making its way south through the Panhandle will reach HOB around 16Z and progress southward to FST around 18Z. /issued 336 AM CDT Tue Sep 5 2017/ Upper ridge remains entrenched over Western US while a trough extends from Canada down across the Eastern US. The trough will swing SE but ridge move little. A weak cold front expected to move through the area today. Should be cooler the next few days with highs mainly in the 80s.
An early season cold front arrives late tonight but any significant change in wind speed and direction is expected after this TAF cycle. /issued 454 AM CDT Tue Sep 5 2017/ SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday): Attention continues to focus on a trough of low pressure located over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico, east of Tampico, for signs of further development. The National Hurricane center is giving a 50- 60 percent chance of a possible tropical cyclone developing in this vicinity in the next 2-5 days.
1030 AM CDT Tue Sep 5 2017 Cold front that brought storms to the area last evening has moved well south of the region. With ample insolation and deep mixing to above 800mb, have trended temps at or just above the warmer guidance. However, mdls show the upper trof digging into the area late tonight, which shud bring along patches of clouds. In the end, have gone aob the cooler guidance for tonight, but this still may not be cold enuf in some areas.
731 AM CDT Tue Sep 5 2017 A few showers along with a thunderstorm or two have developed in the Texas Panhandle this morning behind the cold front. /Issued 346 AM CDT Tue Sep 5 2017/ A cold front pushed south across the Panhandles late last night into the early morning hours.
712 AM EDT Tue Sep 5 2017 Extended stretch of cooler conditions will encompass the region, as moist cyclonic flow takes an increasing hold. The cold front that brought severe weather to southeast Michigan has moved through the area and left in its wake some cooler air and lighter winds. Mid to upper level troughing over the eastern CONUS will occur over the next few days and bring with it some unsettled weather. Temperatures today will range from the mid/upper 60s in The Thumb to the lower/mid 70s across the metro area. This will bring high temperatures on Wednesday down into the low to mid 60s. As the upper trough moves east, we could see some lingering showers through the end of the week.
1232 PM EDT Tue Sep 5 2017 A cold front will approach from the northwest today.
A cold front currently making its way south through the Panhandle will reach HOB around 16Z and progress southward to FST around 18Z. /issued 336 AM CDT Tue Sep 5 2017/ Upper ridge remains entrenched over Western US while a trough extends from Canada down across the Eastern US. The trough will swing SE but ridge move little. A weak cold front expected to move through the area today. Should be cooler the next few days with highs mainly in the 80s.
WV imagery this morning showing a highly anomalous upstream ridge pretty much overing the wrn half of the CONUS with a broad trof covering the ern section of the country. At the sfc, a cold front was situated across cntrl KS into cntrl MO. a large area of high pressure was building southward out of Canada into the northern Plains. Models indicating the highly amplified pattern over the CONUS will hold with dry conditions heading into this weekend. With no significant thermal advection anticipated, max temps will remain slightly below normal today and Wednesday with highs topping out on the low/mid 70s.
1026 AM EDT Tue Sep 5 2017 A cold front will slowly approach from the west today, then slowly cross the region through late in the week. High pressure will then build to the north of the area over the weekend. An upper level trough will descend towards the Mid-Atlantic, buckling as it collides with a building ridge over the northwestern Atlantic. At the surface, a cold front will slowly approach from the west, and increasing low-level convergence will increase by afternoon. Rainfall amounts don't look particularly heavy, but there will be periods of showers for much of the area (especially east of the Blue Ridge) during this time.
1008 AM MDT Tue Sep 5 2017 08z surface analysis had a lovely sprawling ridge from southern MB/SK into NE. Water vapour had large upper ridge over the western third of the CONUS and trough over the east resulting in northerly flow aloft over the CWA. Patchy frost put into the forecast for late tonight/early Wednesday for the higher elevations of the Black Hills into southwest SD.
Stable conditions with light winds under a strong high pressure ridge are allowing for extensive smoke throughout SE Oregon and SW Idaho. Moisture on the western flank of the ridge will provide far southwest Harney County with a slight chance of afternoon showers or thunderstorms, otherwise expect dry hot and smokey conditions today. A stable pattern underneath strong high pressure aloft will continue to bring light winds, with little change in the pattern through Wednesday.
Weak sfc cold front is prog to push S across the region tonight with brief SHRA possible vcnty KVCT.
Numerous showers and storms have blossomed over KY over the past few hours both along and just behind the cold front. North-south band of light rain roughly along I- 65 is producing only trace amounts, and convection along the effective boundary ahead of the cold front is quite isolated. Strong cold front dropping SE into the Ohio Valley overnight.
743 AM EDT Tue Sep 5 2017 Aviation Much cooler temperatures are expected the rest of the week with highs in the 60s. With these cooler temperatures will be scattered rain showers especially near Lake Michigan.
/issued 352 AM CDT Tue Sep 5 2017/ An unusually strong upper level trough was digging across the central U. this morning and will help to advance a cold front across the Mid South today. Canadian high pressure will build across the Mid South from mid week through the weekend. JLH 12z TAFs Cold frontal passage and associated showers and thunderstorms focus of the period, with at least temporary conditions of MVFR expected at all sites.
/Issued 731 AM CDT Tue Sep 5 2017/ A few showers along with a thunderstorm or two have developed in the Texas Panhandle this morning behind the cold front. /Issued 346 AM CDT Tue Sep 5 2017/ A cold front pushed south across the Panhandles late last night into the early morning hours.
A trough of low pressure will remain along the California Coast through much of the week. Cooler conditions will prevail, but temperatures will still a bit above seasonal normals through the week. On Wednesday the area will be sandwiched between an east pac upper low and large upper high over NV.
559 AM MDT Tue Sep 5 2017 130kt upper jet seen clearly on GOES-16 WV imagery this morning over central Canada and the northern Great Plains will continue to dive southward today, digging out a highly amplified trough over the Mississippi Valley. Heights aloft begin to rise on Wednesday as the strong upper ridge over the western CONUS begins to shift east. Continued sunny skies with temperatures around 5 degrees warmer than today. The models are in pretty good agreement in showing the upper level ridge dominating the weather pattern through the weekend.
521 AM MDT Tue Sep 5 2017 08z surface analysis had a lovely sprawling ridge from southern MB/SK into NE. Water vapour had large upper ridge over the western third of the CONUS and trough over the east resulting in northerly flow aloft over the CWA. Patchy frost put into the forecast for late tonight/early Wednesday for the higher elevations of the Black Hills into southwest SD.
1115 AM CDT Tue Sep 5 2017 A cold front stretches from Camden TN to Tunica MS this morning. /issued 352 AM CDT Tue Sep 5 2017/ An unusually strong upper level trough was digging across the central U. this morning and will help to advance a cold front across the Mid South today. Canadian high pressure will build across the Mid South from mid week through the weekend. JLH 12z TAFs Cold frontal passage and associated showers and thunderstorms focus of the period, with at least temporary conditions of MVFR expected at all sites.
These clouds should lift and diminish in the next few hours as we warm up and the lower levels dry out. Northwesterly winds behind yesterday's cold front will pick up to just below small craft criteria. The cooler northwest mid level flow has arrived and will stick with us through the remainder of the week. Expect cooler 60s for highs today, along with gusty northwest winds.
1108 AM EDT Tue Sep 5 2017 High pressure will remain well off the coast this afternoon, while a cold front approaches from the northwest.
/Issued 346 AM CDT Tue Sep 5 2017/ A cold front pushed south across the Panhandles late last night into the early morning hours.
705 AM EDT Tue Sep 5 2017 Strong cold front Today into Wednesday. High pressure with drier and cooler weather behind front for the remainder of the week. The Ohio Valley should see some clearing tonight and much cooler air behind the front. A sharp upper level trough will have a sfc reflection crossing the area Wednesday.
640 AM CDT Tue Sep 5 2017 VFR conditions to prevail throughout the TAF pd, although shwrs/tstms will be possible this afternoon through tonight as a cold front moves across the region. /issued 332 AM CDT Tue Sep 5 2017/ Last warm day today ahead of a much advertised cold front which as of 08z was located across northern Oklahoma into Northern Arkansas. The big story with this weather system will continue be the strong cold air advection present in the wake of the boundary on Wednesday and especially Wed Night as sfc ridging should allow winds to fall which will help to maximize radiational cooling. These low temperatures are some 10 to 15 degrees below normal for early September with daytime highs mostly in the lower 80s through the end of the week.
624 AM CDT Tue Sep 5 2017 /12Z TAFS/ A cold front will move south across West Central Texas late this morning through early this evening. /issued 403 AM CDT Tue Sep 5 2017/ (Today and Tonight) A cold front will move south across West Central Texas this morning through early this evening. Temperatures will have a chance to warm ahead of the front across the southern half the area, with afternoon highs in the lower to mid 90s. The combination of some boundary layer moisture(surface dewpoints in the lower 60s) and weak instability will a bring isolated to widely scattered showers and a few thunderstorms to much of the area this afternoon and evening. It will be cooler tonight due to weak low level cold air advection and a drier airmass.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 82 61 76 53 / 70 60 20 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 81 59 73 51 / 70 60 30 10 Oak Ridge, TN 79 59 74 50 / 70 60 20 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 79 60 69 50 / 70 70 40 10.
719 AM EDT Tue Sep 5 2017 Water vapor loop and RAP analysis shows a broad mid-upper level trough deepening over the Upper Great Lakes this morning. This trough is expected to remain entrenched over the Upper Great Lakes into midweek resulting in periods of scattered showers and cooler than normal temps. With all the clouds and showers and flow off Lk Superior temps will struggle to reach the lower 50s inland west to the low to mid 50s elsewhere closer to Lk Superior.
Precipitation will be around a cold front advancing southward through the state. Today Through Wednesday Night A cold front was pushing into Arkansas from the north early this morning. Much cooler air will be noted behind the front.
This activity appears to be related to frontogenetic forcing near the 700 millibar level, well north of the surface front, and southwest of the main upper trough and jet activity. /issued 624 AM CDT Tue Sep 5 2017/ Cold front is pushing through LBB TAF site at this issuance with winds just turning to the north. /issued 225 AM CDT Tue Sep 5 2017/ The long-awaited cold front is on the doorstep early this morning, south of I-40 at the time of writing. The front should be south of the forecast area by 9 AM, and with high pressure building in behind the front northeast winds will become breezy. Surface ridging will shift east of the area during the day Wednesday with return flow setting up during the afternoon and temperatures at or a bit above those expected for today.
Upper level low associated with the remnants of tropical storm Lidia continues to spin off the coast of California. While still mild, temperatures are considerably cooler in most areas compared to 24 hours ago and generally range from the mid 40s in the mountain valleys to the mid 70s across portions of the Central Valley.