Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
225 AM EST THU JAN 28 2016 MOISTURE WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OVER THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL. SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFFSHORE/TROUGH ALONG SAVANNAH RIVER AND WITH WEAK RIDGING TO THE NORTH. THIS RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK MID LEVEL SHORT WAVES MOVING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA AHEAD OF DIGGING TROUGH IN THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AS LONG WAVE TROUGH FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE GULF OF MEXICO AMPLIFIES LATER TODAY AREA UNDER LEFT EXIT REGION OF 250MB JETMAX OVER FLORIDA TO THE CAROLINA COAST. AFTER 18Z AS UPPER TROUGH/JETMAX SHIFTS EAST.
WITH A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CONTINUING TO CONTROL THE WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION. RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BREAK DOWN THROUGH THE DAY. AND POSSIBLY BRIEFLY BREAK UP SOME OF THE LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE WEST.
CIRRUS CLOUD COVER OVER PARTS OF DEEP EAST TEXAS AND LOWER PARTS OF NORTHWEST AND ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA WILL BE SHIFTING EAST OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT WITH PASSAGE OF AN ELONGATED NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF THE FOUR STATE REGION WITH THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER LESS AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND FRONT SIDE OF RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST.
NORTHWEST FLOW/FAVORABLE MIXING CONDITIONS REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE OVERNIGHT SO WINDS WILL STAY UP ENOUGH TO KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM BOTTOMING OUT AND FOG FROM FORMING DESPITE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 30S. THESE LESS FAVORABLE MIXING CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES SOMEWHAT COOLER THAN TODAYS.
Areas of light rain are expected to linger through the morning hours as an upper level trough moves through the area.
UPPER HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY AND MILD WEATHER TO THE REGION FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
LIGHT WINDS AND DEW POINTS IN THE 20S TO NEAR 30 SHOULD ALLOW FOR MANY LOCATIONS TO REACH FREEZING TONIGHT. DEEP UPPER TROUGH WITH A POSITIVE TILT CONTINUES TO PULL SSE WITH CLEARING SKIES IN ITS WAKE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TX. FREEZES ARE LIKELY OVER MANY LOCATIONS AND SOME SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN FREEZING CONDITIONS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS THAT CAN CATCH A SLIGHT MIXING OF THE WESTERLY BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS.
353 AM EST THU JAN 28 2016 LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OFFSHORE OF THE COAST TODAY AND AWAY FROM THE REGION TONIGHT.
A SERIES OF WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL ZONE OFFSHORE THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES COAST THROUGH TONIGHT. THERE WAS SOME QUESTION WHETHER OR NOT LIGHT FREEZING RAIN WOULD BE POSSIBLE IN THE EXTREME NORTHEAST BUT THIS DOES NOT LOOK LIKELY. CLOUD COVER WILL BE GREATER LEADING TO WARMER TEMPERATURES NOT LIKELY TO GET DOWN TO THE FREEZING MARK. THESE TWO FEATURES WILL AID TO DEVELOP/STRENGTHEN AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG A STALLED SFC FRONT OFFSHORE OF THE SE U. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO PULL AWAY FROM THE NC COAST THURSDAY EVENING. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BE BRIEFLY ZONAL ACROSS THE CONUS THIS WEEKEND IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING EAST COAST TROUGH AND RENEWED HEIGHT FALLS OVER THE WESTERN US.
357 AM CST THU JAN 28 2016 FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM CONTINUE TO BE HOW WARM TEMPERATURES WILL GET WITH GLANCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR TODAY.
UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE AREA AND WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS FOR THE PLAINS OVERNIGHT. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING DOWN THE FRONT OF THE RIDGE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT CONTINUES TO PROVIDE DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS OVER THE PLAINS WHILE LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT.
416 AM EST THU JAN 28 2016 A COLD FRONT CROSSES T0NIGHT.
926 PM MST WED JAN 27 2016 HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES EAST TOWARD UTAH TONIGHT. A FEW OROGRAPHICALLY INDUCED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGH ELEVATIONS OF THE PARK.
338 AM CST THU JAN 28 2016 UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM THE WESTERN U.
1235 AM EST THU JAN 28 2016 A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERS WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ALONG A FRONTAL ZONE NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OVER THE WEEKEND. WEATHER MAP SHOWS STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WELL OFFSHORE WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE TN VALLEY AND EASTERN OHIO VALLEY BUILDING INTO THE CAROLINAS WITH DRY NORTHERLY FLOW.
417 AM EST THU JAN 28 2016 SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME, WE WILL ONCE AGAIN BE WATCHING THE EVOLUTION OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO, AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE EASTERN GULF, ALONG THE STALLED OUT BOUNDARY. LATER TODAY, MODELS HAVE SLOWED DOWN ARRIVAL OF COLD FRONT ACROSS SOUTH FL.
937 PM EST SUN DEC 13 2015 SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE WEST.
THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES ITS MOVEMENT NORTHEAST OUT OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA. BUT A LARGE BAND OF SNOW CONTINUES TO ROTATE WELL TO THE WEST OF THE LOW.
WITH THE CWA SITTING NORTH OF THE TRACK OF THE LOW. THE CENTER OF THE LOW WILL THEN PUSH INTO THE CO ROCKIES LATE MON INTO MON NIGHT.
409 PM CST SUN DEC 13 2015 LOW PRESSURES SYSTEM CURRENTLY LOCATED IN SOUTHEASTERN KS WILL LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT. WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. WITH THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL GRADUALLY SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST AS LOW LIFTS NORTH AND FORCING WRAPS AROUND THE LOW.
A VIGOROUS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LIFT OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAIN TONIGHT AND HEAD NORTHEAST TOWARD THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THE UPPER LOW THEN TRACK RIGHT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY WITH THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL/SNOW SHIFTING NORTH. THE LOW WILL FINALLY EXIT THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT THEN WE WILL SEE A BREAK IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS RIDGING SLIDES THROUGH. AGAIN WE LOOK TO MAINLY BE ON THE WARMER SIDE OF THIS LOW. BUT WITH SOME COOLER AIR IN PLACE INITIALLY WE COULD SEE A SWITCH OVER DO LIGHT SNOW OR A RAIN SNOW MIX FOR LOCATIONS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90.
820 PM EST SUN DEC 13 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE WEATHER THROUGH TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY.
Upper low continues to progress across the Southern/Central Plains this evening with scattered rain showers wrapping around the low across Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas. the upper low and associated precip will continue to lift northeast through the Central Plains. Colder air on the backside of the upper low should remain northwest of the CWA. The one exception will over far Southeast Oklahoma that could try to clear out early Monday morning as the upper low pushes far enough north of the CWA. being closer to the backside of the low.
01 UTC surface analysis shows the cold front moving through New Orleans with the parent low pressure area back across the Central Plains near Kansas City. In the past six hours, the cold front hasn't moved especially far to the east, and this slow motion is expected to continue overnight. Analysis of the KLIX sounding and model soundings further to the east show limited (if any) instability in place ahead of the cold front. So it will be challenging to even get thunder out ahead of the cold front. As would be expected, radar imagery shows a narrow line of showers just ahead of the cold front moving slowly NE back to our west.
WITH MID AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN KS WAS CREATING GUSTY SOUTH WINDS. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY. WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVING INTO MID TN. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LIFT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
SHORT TERM: (Through Late Tonight) Expect rain to continue over the area this evening as strong mid level ascent ahead of upper low currently over the central Plains will be found over strong low level moisture convergence. Some of the momentum of the low level jet will likely also transport downward to the surface tonight causing windy conditions.
721 PM EST SUN DEC 13 2015 A STORM WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY.
THE COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED LEADING EDGE OF MODERATE RAIN WAS NOTED NEAR A STURGIS TO COLUMBIA LINE AT 9 PM. HAVE CANCELLED THE WIND ADVISORY WEST OF THE COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE EAST AND SHOULD BE EAST OF OUR CWA BY MIDNIGHT. COOLER TEMPERATURES WERE NOTED BEHIND THE FRONT AS MERIDIAN WAS STILL 72F AT 9PM WHILE JACKSON WAS 54F. STRONG GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WERE STILL BEING OBSERVED OVER EAST MISSISSIPPI AT 03Z BUT A COLD FRONT WAS MOVING THROUGH EAST MISSISSIPPI AND WL BE EAST OF THE AREA BY 06Z. ADVANCING CONVECTIVE AREA IN THE FACE OF THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD HAS PRODUCED STRONG CONVERGENCE RESULTING IN LOCALIZED DAMAGING WINDS OVER N LA EARLIER.
646 PM EST SUN DEC 13 2015 AN APPROACHING WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA LATE MONDAY.
A COLD FRONT PRESENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE CALGARY AREA IS EXPECTED INTO MONTANA BEFORE MIDNIGHT. CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS COLD FRONT WILL HELP ENHANCE SNOWFALL RATES OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MT EARLY MONDAY.
/ISSUED 210 PM CST SUN DEC 13 2015/ COLD FRONT HAS JUST EXITED EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION. INDICATING THAT DRY SLOTTING WILL OCCUR RAPIDLY ONCE THE UPPER LOW OVER OKLAHOMA BEGINS TO MOVE TO THE NE. THESE CLEAR SKIES WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS ANOTHER CLOSED UPPER LOW.
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND CHANCES OF RAIN AND SNOW TO THE AREA TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MID WEEK WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND COOLER WEATHER WILL ACCOMPANY IT. AND WILL TAPER POPS THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS THE LOW MOVES FURTHER AWAY.
SOUTHERN PLAINS CLOSED LOW WILL LIFT NORTHEAST TO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION BY MID MORNING MONDAY. LOWS COOLEST W/SW CWA IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S.
408 PM CST SUN DEC 13 2015 LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A DEEP 992 MB LOW OVER EASTERN KANSAS WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST LOUISIANA TO SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA. UPPER AIR ANALYSIS AND IR SAT IMAGERY REVEALED A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES WITH ASSOCIATED TROUGH AXIS TO SOUTH TEXAS. ISOTACH ANALYSIS AT 250MB AND INITIALIZED GFS SHOWED AROUND 130 KNOT JET MAX ON THE FRONT SIDE OF THE MAIN TROUGH NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS TO EAST OKLAHOMA. THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE NORTHEAST WITH THE JET MAX PULLING AWAY FROM THE CENTRAL GULF COAST.
1053 PM EST SUN DEC 13 2015 A FEW SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED LATE THIS EVENING IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS WELL SOUTH OF THE LOWER AND MIDDLE KEYS. WINDS IN THE LOWEST LAYERS HAVE DROPPED OFF SIGNIFICANTLY.
626 PM EST SUN DEC 13 2015 WARM WITH SHOWERS MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION BY AFTERNOON.
645 PM CST SUN DEC 13 2015 RAIN WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD TODAY AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH ARKANSAS FROM THE PLAINS.
947 PM EST SUN DEC 13 2015 WARM WITH SHOWERS MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION BY AFTERNOON.
Sustained winds of 15-25 MPH with gusts well over 30 MPH are expected later tonight as the core of the low-level jet axis pushes overhead. record warmth is ensconced across the area with deep upper low over Sooner State with highly anomalous wind fields. Lots of PIREPS for moderate mid and upper level chop and wind field will be on the increase as trough and upper jet kick out. Like the high res NMM of upper trough swinging thru with isol to sct shra from 18-00z Monday too.
549 PM EST SUN DEC 13 2015 AN APPROACHING WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA LATE MONDAY.
Scattered to numerous showers continue over mainly the higher terrain in the cool/unstable post-frontal airmass. Cyclonic flow on the backside of the trough will remain over NorCal on Monday continuing a threat of showers over the mountains, but drier conditions expected to return to most of the area.
Precip chances pick up significantly tonight as short range models indicate the strong closed off upper level low lifting northeast into eastern Kansas. The highest potential snow accumulations are expected upward of 6-9 inches in a small confined band with lesser amounts elsewhere, especially in west central, extreme southwest, and in south central Kansas. Depending on where the higher snow accumulations occur tonight, the highs on Monday could struggle to climb out of the 30s(F) where the snow field sets up to the 40s(F) elsewhere. The lower 50s(F) could be possible in south central Kansas if cloud cover clears up in time.
SOME SHOWER COVERAGE IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE LINE ALTHOUGH PASSAGE OF UPPER TROUGH THIS EVENING SHOULD RAPIDLY DIMINISH THIS COVERAGE. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GULF WILL BUILD BRIEFLY OVER THE AREA ON MONDAY. WHILE TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE MUCH COOLER. MAY SEE WINDS APPROACH SCA CRITERIA AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE NEXT COLD FRONT DURING THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK.
A CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL TRACK FROM CNTRL OKLA INTO NRN MO OVERNIGHT. A DEFORMATION BAND WILL EXTEND NW OF THE UPPER LOW WITH THE BACKSIDE OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD TOUCHING THE FAR SERN FORECAST AREA. A CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INTO ERN UTAH.
GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.
648 PM EST SUN DEC 13 2015 A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT AND MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION.
WILL BE MONITORING FOR FREEZING POTENTIAL. ADDED PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE TO FAR SE ND BASED ON REPORT. WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS OVER DEVILS LAKE TO JAMESTOWN AND LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE AREA. TEMPS WILL BE MUCH COOLER FOR FRI/SAT AND SHOULD BE BELOW ZERO AT NIGHT GIVEN COLD AIRMASS AND FRESH SNOW. TEMPS SHOULD START TO WARM BACK UP ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY WITH UPPER RIDGING AND 850MB TEMPS ABOVE 0C.
MADE SOME SLIGHT TWEAKS TO THE LOW TEMP GRIDS FOR TONIGHT. /ISSUED 210 PM CST SUN DEC 13 2015/ COLD FRONT HAS JUST EXITED EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION. INDICATING THAT DRY SLOTTING WILL OCCUR RAPIDLY ONCE THE UPPER LOW OVER OKLAHOMA BEGINS TO MOVE TO THE NE. THESE CLEAR SKIES WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS ANOTHER CLOSED UPPER LOW.
A FEW SNOW FLURRIES MAY BE SEEN BETWEEN 01Z AND 04Z THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS INSUFFICIENT TO MENTION IN TAF ATTM GIVEN THE LOW-LEVEL DRYING TREND OBSERVED ON RADAR. SHORT WAVE RIDGING WILL RACE IN AND OUT TOMORROW AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION.
METAR TRENDS OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SUSTAINED WINDS AND WIND GUSTS AT OR ABOVE ADVISORY CRITERIA AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. /ISSUED 253 PM CST SUN DEC 13 2015/ A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM NEAR SPRINGFIELD MISSOURI TO MONROE LOUISIANA. CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS MAY LINGER ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE CWA DUE TO WRAP AROUND FROM THE UPPER LOW THAT WILL BE TRACKING ACROSS MISSOURI NORTHEASTWARD TO THE GREAT LAKES.
TEMPS WILL BE MUCH COOLER FOR FRI/SAT AND SHOULD BE BELOW ZERO AT NIGHT GIVEN COLD AIRMASS AND FRESH SNOW. TEMPS SHOULD START TO WARM BACK UP ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY WITH UPPER RIDGING AND 850MB TEMPS ABOVE 0C.
658 PM EST SUN DEC 13 2015 A COLD FRONT NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WILL CROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.
/issued 348 PM CST SUN DEC 13 2015/ (Tonight and Monday) The upper level low that brought thunderstorms to the area last night and windy conditions today is in the eastern TX panhandle this afternoon, and will move northeast into the Great Lakes region by Monday afternoon. While there is some cloud cover wrapping around the low this afternoon and evening into our CWA, these clouds are expected to clear out by midnight tonight. Winds will also be fairly light, which with the drier, cooler air moving in should allow for good cooling in valley areas. Lows will mainly be in the mid to upper 30s, but a few locations could see lows near freezing in valley areas.
GUSTY COLD FRONT MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE MID WEEK. A STRONG COLD FRONT LATE IN THE WEEK. FOLLOWED BY COOLER HIGH PRESSURE. COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE EAST OF THE CWA AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. EVEN ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE WEST.
528 PM CST SUN DEC 13 2015 LOW PRESSURES SYSTEM CURRENTLY LOCATED IN SOUTHEASTERN KS WILL LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT. WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. WITH THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL GRADUALLY SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST AS LOW LIFTS NORTH AND FORCING WRAPS AROUND THE LOW.
ADDED PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE TO FAR SE ND BASED ON REPORT. WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS OVER DEVILS LAKE TO JAMESTOWN AND LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE AREA. TEMPS WILL BE MUCH COOLER FOR FRI/SAT AND SHOULD BE BELOW ZERO AT NIGHT GIVEN COLD AIRMASS AND FRESH SNOW. TEMPS SHOULD START TO WARM BACK UP ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY WITH UPPER RIDGING AND 850MB TEMPS ABOVE 0C.
record warmth is ensconced across the area with deep upper low over Sooner State with highly anomalous wind fields. Lots of PIREPS for moderate mid and upper level chop and wind field will be on the increase as trough and upper jet kick out. Like the high res NMM of upper trough swinging thru with isol to sct shra from 18-00z Monday too.
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA TONIGHT BRINGING 2 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW TO MOST VALLEYS.
SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN MOVING NORTH ALONG THE EAST COAST NEAR WEAK INVERTED TROUGH. LOW TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 60S WITH HIGHS MONDAY IN THE LOWER 80S. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AFTER 15Z MONDAY AS SSW WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WINDS/SEAS WILL INCREASE TO MARGINAL ADVISORY CONDITIONS OFFSHORE TONIGHT AS GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT. E-SE WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTH ON MONDAY AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW.
HOWEVER AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT WITH SEVERAL DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH. THINGS WILL FINALLY START TO QUIET DOWN MONDAY NIGHT AS 500MB HEIGHTS RISE AS AN UPPER RIDGE GRADUALLY SHIFTS EAST, BUT IT WILL BE COLD, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT ARE STILL SNOW COVERED.
910 PM EST SUN DEC 13 2015 A COLD FRONT NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WILL CROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.
COLD FRONT IS WELL OFFSHORE AND THE LAST VESTIGES OF RAIN ARE RAPIDLY MOVING INTO THE HGX CWA/MSA SO WE START WITH A DRY FORECAST. EVEN THOUGH WE HAD A PUNCH OF COLD AIR INTO THE REGION EVENTUALLY THE CAA BECAME MORE NEUTRAL AND THEN TURNED INTO WEAK WAA AS THE LOW-LEVEL LOW PASSED OVERHEAD.
534 PM CST SUN DEC 13 2015 ADDED A MENTION OF FREEZING DRIZZLE FROM PIERRE TO THE SISSETON HILLS FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING AND NO ICE CRYSTALS IT IS LIKELY THE DRIZZLE EXTENDS QUITE A WAYS IN AREAL COVERAGE. COULD EVEN SEE MIST OR FREEZING DRIZZLE MIXED IN.
WILL SEE A DEFINITE PATTERN CHANGE TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION. THE 850MB WINDS WILL INCREASE AS A LOW LEVEL JET ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT MOVES IN. ACROSS THE LOWER VALLEY. CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 61 62 45 65 / 80 90 0 0 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 59 63 46 62 / 30 90 10 0 OAK RIDGE, TN 59 62 46 63 / 30 90 10 0 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 54 64 46 60 / 20 80 10 10 NC.
NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS WILL BE STRONGER FOR A LONGER DURATION THIS EVENING AT KGUY UNTIL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PULLS FARTHER AWAY. WINTER STORM IN PROGRESS ACROSS THE COMBINED PANHANDLE REGION AS AN UPPER LOW BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. GIVEN THE ORIENTATION OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO NEAR FREEZING ACROSS THE ENTIRE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES. A SHORT WAVE RIDGE WILL ENTER THE REGION ON MONDAY AND INDUCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LEE SIDE TROUGH IN EASTERN NEW MEXICO. HELPING BRING IN WARMER AIR INTO THE REGION. AS THE NEXT UPPER LOW SLIDES JUST TO OUR NORTH.
The Upper trof over the Southern Plains will move slowly east.
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL KEEP SCATTERED SHOWERS AND MOUNTAIN SHOW SHOWERS GOING THROUGH TONIGHT.
912 PM EST SUN DEC 13 2015 AN APPROACHING WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA LATE MONDAY.
Lows tonight will eventually fall into the low/mid 40s by daybreak.
THE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED OFF TO THE EAST AND WINDS HAVE BECOME WESTERLY. DRIER AIR IS MOVING IN WITH DEW POINTS 15 TO 35 DEGREES COOLER THAN 24 HOURS AGO. DURING THIS PERIOD THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AND THE PATTERN WILL BECOME ZONAL BRIEFLY BEFORE ANOTHER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. MONDAY WILL BE DRY AND WARMER.
The valleys of MT which have missed out thus far have another shot at accumulating snow this afternoon and evening as a cold front sweeps through the area, ending the south winds which have dried out the lower atmosphere thus far today and prevented precipitation from reaching the ground in those areas. Colder air moving in tonight will lead to a colder day Monday, with most locations below freezing through the day.
THE MAIN LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS OVER THE OK/KS REGION AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING NE INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES STATES BY 18Z MONDAY. ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE EAST OVER NIGHT AND BEGIN PUSHING PRECIPITATION INTO NW GA BY 10-12Z MON. THE MAIN CONCERN APPEARS TO BE STRONG GUSTY WINDS ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTH GA IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. AS THIS FRONT NEARS THE AREA TONIGHT THE GRADIENT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WILL ALSO SEE SOME STRONG WINDS IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MIX DOWN THE GUSTY WINDS.
Upper low crosses northeast across southeast Kansas tonight with deformation/TROWAL to its north. Dry air wrapping northeast around the system brings at least some question on the persistence of ice in the cloud, and more importantly for impacts, the lower level temperature/dewpoint fields. The NAM continues to be the cold outlier, but can't be completely discarded in this system, but even it keeps surface conditions above freezing through much of the night. Upstream temps and dewpoints holding well in the middle 30s support a warmer solution, and should be able to keep near-surface conditions on the warm-side for significant snow to accumulate. Anything behind a slushy inch or so on the ground would seem to be on the high end of potential given the warmth however.
950 PM EST SUN DEC 13 2015 THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MID WEEK WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND COOLER WEATHER WILL ACCOMPANY IT. SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS EVENING SHOWS DEEP LOW PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS NE KANSAS AND NW MISSOURI. A COLD FRONT EXTENDED SOUTHEAST OF THE LOW. WARMER THAN THE MAVMOS DUE TO THE EXPECTED RAIN. AND WILL TAPER POPS THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS THE LOW MOVES FURTHER AWAY.
GIVEN PERSISTENT SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW TONIGHT WOULD EXPECT ADVECTION OF THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO OUR FAR EAST TONIGHT.
TONIGHT AND MONDAY A WARM FRONT THAT MOVED NORTH TO NEAR HIGHWAY 29 BY 20Z IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE NORTHWEST AND STALL ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS EVENING AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. TEMPERATURES SOUTH OF THE FRONT WERE MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S. COLDER AIR WILL MAKE ITS WAY INTO NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA.
/ISSUED 221 PM CST SUN DEC 13 2015/ THE UPPER LOW OVER THE TX PANHANDLE WILL PICK UP FORWARD SPEED AS THE CYCLONIC JET MAX ROTATES DOWNSTREAM OF THE SYSTEM. A SECONDARY SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS WILL LOSE SOME STEAM AS IT MOVES INTO THE AREA LATER TONIGHT AND MONDAY.
551 PM EST SUN DEC 13 2015 A STORM WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S BUT WILL FEEL COOLER WITH THE WINDS. /ISSUED 221 PM CST SUN DEC 13 2015/ THE UPPER LOW OVER THE TX PANHANDLE WILL PICK UP FORWARD SPEED AS THE CYCLONIC JET MAX ROTATES DOWNSTREAM OF THE SYSTEM. A SECONDARY SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS WILL LOSE SOME STEAM AS IT MOVES INTO THE AREA LATER TONIGHT AND MONDAY.