Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Upper level high pressure over the region will slide to the east today with east to southeast winds continuing. Upper level ridging will crest over the state later today but exit quickly off to the east this evening. Meanwhile, the progressive weather pattern of late will continue with a deep and significant trough working its way through the intermountain west. Moisture will be drawn into the state as the system approaches with widespread showers developing in advance of the approaching warm front.
High pressure and a a ridge aloft will shift over Alabama and Middle Tennessee tonight.
This evening through Wednesday night With the new feel in the air, one can tell that a cold front has moved through the area. Temperatures will continue to drop through the day as cold air continues to filter in behind the departing cold front.
A longwave trof amplifies then takes on a negative tilt while progressing across the Plains during the period.
From Wednesday onward, warmer and dry conditions are anticipated, with generally light winds. The cold front that brought rain and high elevation (>8000 ft) snow showers overnight has pushed east of the state. An active cold front is noted east of Flagstaff this morning. The trough driving this front moves into western Colorado later this morning, with frontal precipitation over the eastern zones rapidly decreasing by early afternoon.
This low is producing heavy rain and high winds over the NE U. The associated cold front extends southwest through the western Atlantic with the trailing edge extending through southern Florida. This high pressure will move southeast over the next couple of days producing pleasant weather over the Florida peninsula. Models are moving a deep trough westward and spinning up a robust low pressure system that will transit eastward over the next 48-72 hours.
All of that said, a combination of the weak trough lifting out of the area and dry air filtering into the area, have opted to leave only slight PoPs for today. As this trough lifts out of our area, ridging will move in from the west and breezes will clock around to northwest this afternoon and evening. Otherwise, breezes slacken this evening through Wednesday as ridge moves across the region.
250 PM EDT Tue Oct 26 2021 Low pressure off the Mid-Atlantic to New England coast combined with high pressure building into our region from the west will bring windy conditions this afternoon and early evening. High pressure will build overhead late tonight through Wednesday night with winds becoming light.
Gusts near to over 50 mph are also expected southeast of Missoula and in the high terrain.
The onset of the stronger northwest flow aloft tonight will support leeside troughing development which brings increasing pressure gradients along the foothills this evening. Will be warmer with better mixing and less cloud cover though could see some mountain shower activity.
130 PM EDT Tue Oct 26 2021 Expect cool temperatures and decreasing clouds today through Wednesday as high pressure moves across the Great Lakes.
The high clouds should quickly exit the area by early evening with clear skies for awhile in most areas.
132 PM EDT Tue Oct 26 2021 Isolated to scattered precipitation today and cooler temperatures today will be followed by dry conditions on Wednesday. Temperatures should drop into the mid 30s the ridges of eastern Preston and Tucker counties by late afternoon. Strong wind gusts of 25 to 35 mph will also continue with higher values along ridges where the current wind advisory remains. Dry weather and a warming trend will commence Wednesday as ridging builds in behind the exiting low.
112 PM CDT Tue Oct 26 2021 Early this afternoon a ridge of high pressure was across the area. Low pressure was deepening across the High Plains as a vigorous upper level trof moves over the Rockies.
As this trough lifted out of our area, ridging moved in from the west and has begun to back our winds to the west and northwest. This ridge will only be over the region through the next 24 to 36 hours. Meanwhile, another strong mid latitude trough, one that recently battered the Pacific coast, will swing through the Rockies and drive cyclogenesis over the Plains tonight and tomorrow. An associated cold front will begin driving southeastward through the Gulf of Mexico tonight and Wednesday.
Current satellite imagery continues to show extensive cloud cover from an Intermountain West low streaming over the ridge access centered over the Plains. The aforementioned ridge axis will shift farther east tomorrow and into the Midwest with a deepening trough over the Rockies. Temperatures Wednesday night will be much warmer than Tuesday night in the warm, moist airmass. broad and deep upper level low pressure system over KY and TN.
Lows will range from around 50 in the east to the low 60s over Northeast Louisiana. An upper low/trough will move into the southern planes early on Wednesday, with an associated cold front extending south across Oklahoma into East Texas. A warm front will move northward into the area Wednesday afternoon and this will dictate the northern extent of the potential for severe storms. Currently the best potential for severe weather looks to be generally along the Highway 84 corridor with the best instability/shear.
Early afternoon analysis showed upper level ridging pushing east of the area while an upper level trough axis over the Rockies was making steady progress eastward. certainly enough for a few stronger storms capable of hail, especially given the cooler time of year. Shear also looks impressive, particularly in the low levels, though a fairly stout warm nose above the surface was further enhanced by lingering cloud cover (and even some drizzle) today, so storms will be largely unable to tap into that strong shear.
112 PM CDT Tue Oct 26 2021 Early this afternoon and ridge of high pressure was across the area. Low pressure was deepening across the High Plains as a vigorous upper level trof moves over the Rockies.
KS Chattanooga Airport, TN 42 66 52 61 51 / 0 0 70 80 70 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 37 63 49 64 51 / 0 0 50 80 80 Oak Ridge, TN 37 63 49 62 50 / 0 0 50 80 90 Tri Cities Airport, TN 36 62 45 63 49 / 0 0 30 80 90.
CNM should see the highest winds with occasional gusts over 40 kts possible. (Today through Wednesday afternoon) Everything continues on track for strong winds in the Guadalupe Mountains and windy conditions elsewhere as an upper level trough moves across the desert southwest today. Have kept the High Wind Warning going through 09Z to allow for uncertainties in the timing of the trough but winds may well decrease before the expiration time. The trough will push a Pacific cold front through this evening which could cause storms to develop in the eastern Permian Basin as the front encounters better low level moisture. Temperatures today will again be near record highs due to the westerly downsloping flow but then cooler air settles in tonight behind the Pac front with cold air advection continuing tomorrow as low level winds become more northerly.
A 500mb trough across the western United States works its way east through Texas bringing a weak cold front to the area. This front is bringing a slightly cooler and drier airmass into the area with little to no precipitation with it. Wednesday night will be pleasant as northwesterly winds die down with dewpoints in the mid 30s and low temperatures 10 degrees cooler than the previous night in the mid 60s.
Other main change was to slow down ewd progression of PoPs and increase upslope QPF as sfc and upper trofs continue to deepen. Upper level analysis depicts a highly amplified trough pivoting through the Four Corners region. Widespread upper lift downstream of the trough axis is clearly evident on water vapor and IR imagery and a look at regional radar imagery shows precipitation stretching from central MT southward into northern AZ. Temperatures will cool enough for a mix of rain and snow across the higher elevations of the Black Hills, where an inch or so of snow is possible by Wednesday morning. Rain chances will taper off Wednesday as the upper trough pivots through the southern Plains and into the Midwest by Wednesday evening.
NBM is not keeping up with the stratus influence and other guidance seems a little on the high side for tomorrow with the increasing rain and deep upper trough, especially if the very low stratus migrates east.
MVFR cigs continue at all sites this morning, but the low cloud deck appears to be eroding just northwest of CKV, therefore expect CKV to see mostly clear skies as early as mid morning.
252 PM CDT Tue Oct 26 2021 An upper level ridge over the region was being pushed east and amplified as a storm system digs into the southern plains this afternoon. During the day Wednesday, rain and scattered storms will move into the Ozarks and continue to move from south to north across the area through the day as the storm system pushes up against the amplifying ridge to the east of the area. Through the day the upper level trough/low will continue to dig south. This will keep the rain axis across the Ozarks into Wednesday night as the upper level lows eastward progression slows before it begins to lift north.
An upper level trough axis is currently located over western/central Montana and will continue to slowly move east through the rest of today and tonight, eventually moving across the state overnight and into Wednesday morning. Ahead of this trough, patchy fog and light misty conditions will remain possible through at least this evening. The highest winds will generally be across the west, with sustained values up to 25 mph and gusts to 35 mph. Regarding temperatures, tonight's lows will fall into the lower 30s west to the lower 40s east. Wednesday will be warmer with most locations seeing highs in the 50s (some upper 50s likely across portions of the central and southwest).
308 PM EDT Tue Oct 26 2021 Expect cool and dry weather tonight through Wednesday as high pressure moves across the Great Lakes.
CAM solutions are all reasonably consistent developing a secondary line of showers/storms across eastern OK Wednesday afternoon as the cold front and cooler temps associated with the upper low surges east. That said, squirelly weather stuff can happen beneath an upper low.
Wednesday will be dry under building high pressure. Gusts of 25 to 35 mph will also continue into the evening, with higher values along ridges, due to a strong vertical wind profile associated with a coastal low. Wind Advisory continues along the ridges of Tucker County until 04Z. Dry weather and a warming trend will commence Wednesday as ridging builds behind the exiting low.
Tranquil weather on Wednesday with a dry upper ridge getting pinched overhead. Max temps should run a couple degrees warmer than today based on low-level thickness progs, in spite of increasing clouds late in the day.
1148 AM MDT Tue Oct 26 2021 Upper level analysis depicts a highly amplified trough pivoting through the Four Corners region. Widespread upper lift downstream of the trough axis is clearly evident on water vapor and IR imagery and a look at regional radar imagery shows precipitation stretching from central MT southward into northern AZ. Temperatures will cool enough for a mix of rain and snow across the higher elevations of the Black Hills, where an inch or so of snow is possible by Wednesday morning. Rain chances will taper off Wednesday as the upper trough pivots through the southern Plains and into the Midwest by Wednesday evening.
Temperatures have warmed up across the entire area a little more than yesterday, but it is still cooler than initially forecast this morning. Wind gusts are the main threat, but there could be some hail since the freezing level is lower and temperatures are cooler.
By early evening, a potent upper level trough will approach the area, along with a Pacific cold front. As this front overtakes the dryline by mid evening, and large scale ascent (from the approaching trough) overspread the region, showers and thunderstorms are forecast to quickly develop along the front/dryline. Much cooler temperatures are forecast on Wednesday behind the front, with highs in the low to mid 70s.
329 PM CDT Tue Oct 26 2021 (Issued 329 PM CDT Tue Oct 26 2021) Tonight through Wednesday night: High pressure centered over southern Hudson Bay will slowly shift eastward tonight through Wednesday night, while a trough of low pressure approaches from the west. A few raindrops will be possible in the west towards the approaching trough by late Wednesday night.
320 PM CDT Tue Oct 26 2021 High pressure will bring fair weather to central Illinois tonight through most of Wednesday.
From Wednesday onward, warmer and dry conditions are anticipated, with generally light winds. Wednesday through the weekend - dry weather with a gradual warming trend as high pressure returns to the region.
Clouds will gradually build in from the west ahead of an approaching negatively tilted trough over the Intermountain West as of this afternoon. That trough will eventually move eastward into middle of the CONUS. Isentropic forcing for ascent ahead of the trough axis will result in widespread rain and a few embedded thunderstorms starting overnight tonight and continuing through and Wednesday night.
An upper level ridge over the region was being pushed east and amplified as a storm system digs into the southern plains this afternoon. During the day Wednesday, rain and scattered storms will move into the Ozarks and continue to move from south to north across the area through the day as the storm system pushes up against the amplifying ridge to the east of the area. Through the day the upper level trough/low will continue to dig south. This will keep the rain axis across the Ozarks into Wednesday night as the upper level lows eastward progression slows before it begins to lift north.
844 PM CDT Tue Oct 26 2021 High pressure will bring fair weather to central Illinois tonight through most of Wednesday.
629 PM EDT Tue Oct 26 2021 It will be chilly overnight with frost developing by daybreak Wednesday with temperatures into the lower to middle 30s.
A few showers possible through tomorrow, otherwise, dry conditions prevail as a ridge builds into the CWA.
Around that time is also when a few SHRA could be developing and spreading inland acrs the southern terminals in advance of a strong cold front acrs TX.
The airmass will continue to destabilize and once strong upper forcing reaches the low level moisture axis, storms will quickly initiate over western Kansas later this afternoon.
This afternoon will remain cooler than average across the region and again on Wednesday.
The bright red colors represents the drier air mass in the low and mid levels of the atmospheric column. A building ridge over the region caused winds to shift to the northwest tonight, then a deepening trough currently west of the area will cause the winds to veer from the south to southwest by tomorrow night. Southwesterly breezes are expected to freshen due to a deepening cold front that will advance to the southeast.
Cooler & Drier Overnight. Much less wind/gustiness expected as weak high pressure ridge moves across the area. Very dry air in the low and mid levels should prevent any cumulus from forming. Overall, a pleasant day expected with max temps in the lower 80s north and mid 80s south with low humidity and light winds.
Wednesday will be dry under building high pressure. Gusts of 25 to 35 mph will also continue after dark, with higher values along ridges, due to a strong vertical wind profile associated with a coastal low. Wind Advisory continues along the ridges of Tucker County until 04Z. Dry weather and a warming trend will commence Wednesday as ridging builds behind the exiting low.
Early this afternoon a ridge of high pressure was across the area. Low pressure was deepening across the High Plains as a vigorous upper level trof moves over the Rockies.
516 PM EDT Tue Oct 26 2021 A strong low pressure system has brought periods of rain to our area, which will end tonight.
612 PM CDT Tue Oct 26 2021 High pressure will bring fair weather to central Illinois tonight through most of Wednesday.
A weather system moving across the area today will bring breezy winds today along with much cooler temperatures today and tomorrow. The low clouds from this morning have thinned greatly with just some cumulus clouds remaining in Cochise County and over the White Mountains. Moisture has decreased significantly behind the cold front with dewpoints about 20 degrees less than what they were five hours ago. The trough that brought the showers is now in New Mexico and will continue moving eastward. Tonight lows will likely drop to freezing or a couple degrees below in the Sulphur Springs Valley. Temperatures will be a little warmer tomorrow but still 6-10 degrees below normal. Some isolated spots in the Sulphur Springs Valley may briefly hit freezing but most of the areas will likely be a few degrees above freezing.
Weak and dry high pressure will be in place tomorrow as well.
Current temperatures have dropped into the mid and upper 40s in many spots, with a couple of our cold spots already in the low 40s. Plan no changes to the headline area at this time as the upper clouds will arrive earlier in our SW and will keep more of the lows in that area in the upper 30s to around 40. Tranquil weather on Wednesday with a dry upper ridge getting pinched overhead. Max temps should run a couple degrees warmer than today based on low-level thickness progs, in spite of increasing clouds late in the day.
Wednesday will be dry under building high pressure. As a result, have let wind advisory expire for the high elevations of Tucker County. Gusts of 25 to 35 mph will also continue after dark, with higher values along ridges, due to a strong vertical wind profile associated with a coastal low. Wind Advisory continues along the ridges of Tucker County until 04Z. Dry weather and a warming trend will commence Wednesday as ridging builds behind the exiting low. Thursday temps are forecasted to be slightly above average as the ridge axis crosses the area. Another deepening trough is expected to track out of the Midwest late in the week, with rain chances returning. Rain and widespread restrictions will advance northward late Thursday and linger through the weekend with the slow passage of a low pressure system.
A small upper ridge will move quickly from west to east today, allowing for sunshine to break out for at least a few hours. Winds and cloud cover will both increase this evening and into the overnight hours ahead of an approaching low pressure system. There is some model disagreement on the timing of the first wave of showers ahead of the low.
Upper level analysis and water vapor imagery depict a highly amplified upper trough slowly pivoting through eastern NM, western TX, and the OK Panhandle early this morning.
Early this morning, a deepening upper level trough continues to generally advance from West to East across the area. Isentropic ascent along the 300K surface along with enough realized instability within the midlevels will keep a few embedded thunderstorms going through early to mid morning before lifting out the area to the northeast as the entire trough and closed upper low forms and translates east. The cold front should also slowly move through today with winds becoming light within the frontal zone before changing to the north and eventually northwesterly direction this evening and into the day on Thursday. But, regardless, a very noticeable and cooler northwesterly wind will be the main feature for the Thursday afternoon time frame.
Temperatures will be several degrees warmer, with highs getting back into the 60s across the lowest valleys, including portions of the Treasure Valley. High resolution models demonstrate the potential for lingering moisture over the lower elevations of Idaho into Wednesday, with showers indicated in current forecast. High pressure will then impact the the area for Thursday, with warming temperatures. Moisture is expected to ride along the ridge on Thursday, and could brush the northern border of the area on Thursday morning.
An upper level trough will track across western Kansas today bringing in cooler air and strong winds. The strongest gusts today look to be from the highway 283 corridor on west where some 50+ mph wind gusts aren't out of the question. An area of lift on the backside of the low will provide cloud cover and the potential for some light rain mainly for our south central counties. Tonight the low level jet increases in our eastern third counties and as such the winds will continue to stay strong through the night. Thursday will continue with strong winds and cooler temperatures as the upper level low slowly moves east into the Mississippi river valley. Highs will get into the lower 60s.
High Wind Warnings are in effect for the I-80 corridor including the Summit, and Arlington to Elk Mountain for gusty winds 55 to 65 MPH possible today with the highest winds being this afternoon. Generally gusty winds 35 to 40 MPH will also be felt outside of the High Wind Warning across portions of southeast Wyoming and the southern Nebraska panhandle. Temperatures today will be much cooler than yesterday with highs sitting 5 to 10 degrees below normal.
Gehring (Issued 329 PM CDT Tue Oct 26 2021) Tonight through Wednesday night: High pressure centered over southern Hudson Bay will slowly shift eastward tonight through Wednesday night, while a trough of low pressure approaches from the west. A few raindrops will be possible in the west towards the approaching trough by late Wednesday night.
Clouds will gradually build in from the west ahead of an approaching negatively tilted trough over the Intermountain West as of this afternoon. That trough will eventually move eastward into middle of the CONUS. Isentropic forcing for ascent ahead of the trough axis will result in widespread rain and a few embedded thunderstorms starting overnight tonight and continuing through and Wednesday night. Light rain will linger into Thursday as the trough bifurcates into a cutoff low over the Tennessee Valley and a trough over the Canadian Prairies.
Temperatures have warmed up across the entire area a little more than yesterday, but it is still cooler than initially forecast this morning. Wind gusts are the main threat, but there could be some hail since the freezing level is lower and temperatures are cooler. Temperatures will be on the cooler side both days, with highs in the 50s.
412 AM EDT Wed Oct 27 2021 Cool and dry weather will prevail as high pressure moves across the Great Lakes today and tonight.
The cut-off low maintains strong low level flow across western parts of our forecast area Wednesday (35-45 knots at 850mb).
303 AM EDT Wed Oct 27 2021 A weakening ridge of high pressure will slide off to the east today, providing us with a cool east breeze and quiet weather. Tonight clouds will thicken and lower ahead of low pressure crossing the Ozarks. Lows should range from the low-mid 40s in the Bluegrass to around 50 in the Bowling Green region. With upper ridging over the West and East Coasts, a large upper trough will cut south through the center of the CONUS. Embedded in this trough, a closed stacked low moves east along the MO/AR border increasing precipitation chances over the CWA as isentropically lifted moisture moves into the region.
311 AM CDT Wed Oct 27 2021 (Issued 311 AM CDT Wed Oct 27 2021) Today and Tonight: Another nice day is ahead for the region, as high pressure slowly retreats to the east.
132 AM EDT Wed Oct 27 2021 It will be chilly overnight with frost developing by daybreak Wednesday with temperatures into the lower to middle 30s.
The first half of the day will have a northerly 850 mb flow that will continue to provide cold advection, then become light with neutral advection in the afternoon as the ridge moves overhead. High temps will be a little below normal, with highs in the lower to mid 60s in most spots. The ridge will be to our east this evening, with a strengthening southerly flow advecting greater moisture into the area.