Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
309 AM EST FRI NOV 27 2015 THE MAMMOTH AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT HAS BEEN PLAGUING THE KEYS AREA FOR THE PAST WEEK REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE GRAND BANKS AND CANADIAN MARITIMES. THE RIDGE AXIS SPRAWLS ACROSS THE ENTIRE UNITED STATES EAST COAST AND OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. AN UPPER LOW OVER THE OVER NEVADA IS CURRENTLY BREAKING OFF FROM THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW. PARTIALLY DUE TO THE COOLER WATER IN FLORIDA BAY.
A cold front will push south across West Central Texas today and set the stage for additional rain and the potential for freezing rain or sleet across our northwestern counties. The cold front has pushed south this morning into West Central Texas and currently lies near a line from Sterling City to Brownwood. Temperatures along and north of our Interstate 20 corridor will likely fall to near the freezing mark this afternoon and tonight; however, freezing rain or sleet will likely be limited to our western Big Country counties, for locations mainly along and northwest of a line from Sweetwater, to Anson, to Haskell.
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT TO PROMPT A RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLY CHILLY CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THE AIRMASS DRY. HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING ALOFT AND THE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN DRY.
1139 PM EST THU NOV 26 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN MAINE LATE FRIDAY AND CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST COOLER WHERE SNOW COVER PERSISTS. THE NEXT SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE REGION IS THE FULL LATITUDINAL TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST.
SUBJECTIVE 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES ELONGATED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM NEAR HUDSON BAY THROUGH ND/MT AND TOWARD NV/CA. SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH EXTENDED ACROSS THE PLAINS.
THE COLD FRONT WILL DROP SLOWLY SE FRI INTO FRI NIGHT.
1248 AM EST FRI NOV 27 2015 MILD TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY CONDITIONS CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL ADVANCE THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON RESULTING IN RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY NOSE INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA AND WASHINGTON DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. WILL CONTINUE TO HINT A SOME POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FREEZING FOG AT THE LOWEST ELEVATIONS LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
OCCASIONAL SLEET AND SOME SNOW MAY MIX IN BY MID-MORNING AT ANY/ALL OF THE TAF SITES AS THE FREEZING LAYER GRADUALLY DEEPENS. /ISSUED 940 PM CST THU NOV 26 2015/ UPDATED TEMPERATURES TONIGHT TO BETTER CAPTURE THE FASTER ARRIVAL OF FREEZING TEMPS WHILE ALSO BUMPING UP THE START OF FREEZING RAIN. OPTED TO LEAVE THE ICE STORM WARNING START TIME AT 06Z DESPITE SOME FREEZING RAIN ALREADY OCCURRING IN OUR NW COUNTIES. THE WTM NEAR HART HAS ALREADY MEASURED 1/3 INCH OF RAIN IN THE PAST HOUR UNDER ONE SUCH BAND COINCIDENT WITH FREEZING TEMPS. THE IMPACT TO AREA ROADS MAY BE WORSE THAN ORIGINALLY EXPECTED GIVEN THE FASTER ARRIVAL OF FREEZING TEMPS AND MINIMAL RECOVERY ON FRIDAY. IN EXPECTATION OF SLIGHTLY DEEPER FREEZING LAYER. HOWEVER WE STILL EXPECT FREEZING RAIN TO DOMINATE THE EVENT AT THIS TIME.
1051 PM CST THU NOV 26 2015 FOR 06Z TAFS /ISSUED 811 PM CST THU NOV 26 2015/ A LARGE UPPER RIDGE IS OVER MUCH OF THE SERN US WHILE A STRONG CDFNT EXTENDED ACROSS THE MIDWEST. THIS RIDGE WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CWA OVERNIGHT. WITH KHSV HAVING THE BEST CHC OF RECEIVING THE LOWER CLOUDS.
SIDEWALKS AND PARKING LOTS MAY BECOME SLICK THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS TEMPERATURES DROP BELOW FREEZING. THEY DO NOT INDICATE ANY FREEZING DRIZZLE. THERE IS A BIT OF CONCERN THAT THE HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY BE A BIT TOO COOL.
250 AM EST FRI NOV 27 2015 ANOTHER QUIET/MILD WEATHER DAY ACROSS THE REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE REMAINS THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS THE AREA. AS ANY PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE REGION ALONG THE COLD FRONT.
THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT LONGWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SPLITTING ONGOING AS A WESTERN CONUS CLOSED UPPER LOW DEVELOPS. FUJIWARA LIKE PROCESSES WILL SHIFT AN ASSOCIATED IMPULSE FROM THE WESTERN UPPER LOW INTO THE REGION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. VERY COLD CONDS EXPECTED WITH SFC RIDGING/DRY AIR IN PLACE/AND CLEAR SKIES SUPPORTING STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING. HAVE OPTED FOR THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE PER HIGHS. WEAK WAA AND CLOUD COVER SHOULD ALLOW FOR WARMER OVERNIGHT LOWS THAN TONIGHT.
241 AM EST FRI NOV 27 2015 SOUTHWEST FLOW TODAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR HIGHS 10 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE REGION. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD AND EVENTUALLY CROSS OUR AREA LATE TONIGHT.
313 AM EST FRI NOV 27 2015 A COLD FRONT WEST OF THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER EARLY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN MAINE THIS AFTERNOON AND SWEEP OFF THE DOWNEAST COAST BY LATE THIS EVENING.
Cold front at 05z was located across swrn MO. /ISSUED 925 PM CST THU NOV 26 2015/ The cold front is slightly ahead of schedule as it plunges southeast across the area this evening. The temperature gradient behind the front is also a bit sharper than forecast, although the location of the freezing line is about right on that suggested by recent runs of the NAM12.
HAVE BEEN HOLDING IN THE MID TO UPPER HIGH TEENS BELOW ZERO IN SUCH LOCATIONS AS ENCAMPMENT. ELK MOUNTAIN AND ARLINGTON WITH GUSTS HOLDING IN THE LOW 20MPH RANGE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING UPPER LEVEL LOW CIRCULATION OVER WEST CENTRAL UTAH THIS MORNING.
The 12Z models continued to trend slower with the onset, and also with the cold frontal passage through our region.
DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH RESULTS IN SUBZERO TEMPERATURES MANY LOCATIONS ACROSS WEST AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA EARLY THIS MORNING. CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN AND TEMPERATURES RAPIDLY FALLING. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS PUSHING SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY. THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO. WESTERLY WINDS ORIGINATING OUT OF THE HIGH WILL ADVECT DRY AIR INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. RETURN FLOW AND WAA FOR FRIDAY WILL RESULT IN WARMER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA.
THIS SLOWLY APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL WEAKEN THE ONSHORE GRADIENT ENOUGH TO LOWER WINDS TO 10 KTS OR LESS. AS THE LOWER COLUMN COOLS. /ISSUED 925 PM CST THU NOV 26 2015/ WARM AND CLOUDY EVENING WITH TEMPS IN THE LOWER 70S AREAWIDE.
DECREASED THE NEAR TERM TEMPERATURES AND NUDGED WINDS TO A MORE NORTH-NORTH EASTERLY DIRECTION TO REFLECT CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND FASTER PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT.
Visibility will also fluctuate, moreso than ceilings before and after a strong cold front moves through. Have also included light freezing rain at KHOB by 27/11Z and KCNM by 27/14Z. The freezing line continues to creep south and is currently moving into northern Lea County. Temperatures will likely fall to or just below freezing by early Friday morning across the warned areas.
111 AM EST FRI NOV 27 2015 HIGH PRESSURE EAST OF NOVA SCOTIA SLOWLY GIVES WAY TO AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT OVER THE MIDWEST THIS EVENING.
A cold front extends from just east/south of the KC metro area into southeast KS and is poised to start moving into the northwest portion of the cwfa shortly. A sharp drop in temperatures is also expected with the frontal passage, but subfreezing temperatures, at least initially, are not a concern but may get close to 32 deg F over the far nw cwfa (Bourbon County KS) by late Fri afternoon. Early on, the higher precip amounts will be over the northwest cwfa then spread southeast.
THE CLOSED LOW CONTINUES TO REMAIN OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND WILL RETROGRADE WESTWARD FRIDAY.
941 PM PST THU NOV 26 2015 Chilly temperatures and clear skies are expected through at least Friday as strong high pressure builds over the Pacific Northwest.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S INLAND TO THE UPPER 50S NEAR THE COAST AND HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.
307 AM CST FRI NOV 27 2015 LONG FETCH OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO OVERRIDE OUR CANADIAN AIR MASS AT THE SURFACE AHEAD OF A LARGE POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH IS LOCATED OVER NEVADA AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.
OUT AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 48 66 50 66 / 0 0 10 10 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 43 65 47 64 / 0 0 0 10 OAK RIDGE, TN 42 64 50 64 / 0 0 10 20 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 38 65 43 63 / 10 0 10 10.
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE WESTERN U. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STRETCHES FROM THE NRN GULF TO THE CAROLINAS. SFC RIDGING IS LOCATED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND REACHES SOUTHWESTWARD. A RATHER STRONG SUB POLAR JET IS LOCATED BETWEEN THE UPPER RIDGE AND THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS OVER THE WEST.
345 AM EST FRI NOV 27 2015 DRY AND MILD SHORT TERM FORECAST CONTINUES AS THE UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN U.
1245 AM EST FRI NOV 27 2015 HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS ON INTO TODAY WITH UNUSUALLY MILD AIR.
ALOFT, LARGE CUTOFF LOW OVER AND NE OF THE BAHAMAS SLOWLY BEGINS TO DRIFT SOUTHWEST AS THE STRONG RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO RETREATS SLIGHTLY. EVENING SOUNDING SHOWED A ROBUST SUBSIDENCE INVERSION IN PLACE AT AROUND 800 MB, AND WHILE THIS LOOKS TO ERODE SLIGHTLY WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER LOW, OVERALL PROBABILITY OF DEEP CONVECTION LOOKS MINIMAL AND EXPECT FAST MOVING SHOWERS WITH A FEW HEAVIER DOWNPOURS AT TIMES. IN ADDITION THE HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST BEACHES WILL CONTINUE.
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTH NOW OVER SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA. BEST MIXING AND WAA WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE FORECAST HIGHS WILL APPROACH THE LOWER 30S. COOLER ELSEWHERE IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S. A COL DEVELOPS TONIGHT OVER THE REGION WITH A CLOSED UPPER LOW TO OUR SOUTHWEST. HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE AXIS TO OUR NORTHWEST. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTHEAST. AND A S/WV RIDGE EXTENDING INTO EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA.
Absent of any synoptic scale forcing under deep layer ridging, rain is not expected today.
1116 PM CST THU NOV 26 2015 THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE WAS CANCELED WITH THE AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE AS NO ADDITIONAL SNOW OR DRIZZLE ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED. THE PRECIPITATION THREAT CONTINUES TO SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST AS THE LOWER AND MID LEVELS OF THE TROPOSPHERE UNDERGOES A DRYING TREND. COLD TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST IN A CLEARING POST COLD FRONT REGIME. WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH THE PROGRESSION OF THE GREAT BASIN UPPER LOW ON FRIDAY AS IT RELUCTANTLY INCHES EAST TOWARD THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR WILL DOMINATE THE PATTERN. ONSHORE FLOW ALONG THE TEXAS GULF COAST WILL BEGIN FEEDING MOISTURE NORTHWARD ONTO THE HIGH PLAINS.
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL SLOWLY MEANDER ACROSS SOUTHERN B.
UPPER LOW IS CURRENTLY SPINNING OVER FAR NRN UTAH.
1205 AM EST FRI NOV 27 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE INTO THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE WEAKENING AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL AT THE SURFACE WITH THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVERHEAD.
252 AM CST FRI NOV 27 2015 A strong upper low over the Great Basin this morning will slowly wobble east the next few days. This low will bring potential of winter weather to the region. A strong cold front is moving rapidly southward across the region this morning. The front and the low will provide ample lift for rain. and for the Van Horn region down through the Davis Mountains primarily for the higher elevations. and bridges. Eventually the low moves east but additional troughs move over the western part of the country.
THIS RAIN IS ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT WHICH CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM NORTHEAST ILLINOIS THROUGH SOUTHWEST MISSOURI AND INTO NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS. BY TONIGHT THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVING INTO CENTRAL ARKANSAS SO THERE WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN OVER MORE OF THE FORECAST AREA.
RAIN WILL END FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ON FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH AND SOUTH OF THE REGION.
413 AM CST WED NOV 18 2015 WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING THE STRONG UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN KANSAS LIFTING NORTHEAST.
Low clouds currently over NE OK/NW AR TAF sites will begin to scatter out by mid morning as upper low continues to lift NNE of the region with VFR conditions developing. gusty SW/W winds will continue today before decreasing this evening ahead of cold front which will move into NE OK around 06Z. /ISSUED 257 AM CST WED NOV 18 2015/ An upper level low currently spinning over southeast Kansas will whisk off to the northeast today. An associated cold front will move through the region Tonight resulting in a cooler day on Thursday.
A weak cold front will move south into the Big Country later tonight (after Midnight), reaching the KABI terminal between 11Z and 12Z Thursday. An upper low over eastern Kansas early this morning will lift rapidly north-northeast today, with height rises over our area and the flow aloft becoming west-northwest. A weak and dry cold front will move south into the Big Country late tonight.
845 AM EST WED NOV 18 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS LATER TODAY. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE IN STORE FOR WEEKS END. TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND DOWNSLOPING FLOW ARE EXPECTED TO HELP SUSTAIN WIND GUSTS TODAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. ACROSS THE RIDGE TOPS AND VALLEYS NEARBY. THEREFORE A WIND ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR THE RIDGE ZONES AND VALLEYS WITHIN. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT VIA SOUTHEAST FLOW MAY CAUSE LIGHT QPF ACROSS THE RIDGES DUE TO OROGRAPHIC LIFT. HAVE MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN UNTIL THE FRONT APPROACHES. THE COLD FRONT WILL SWIFTLY CROSS THE REGION EARLY TONIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS.
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW. LOWS THU MORNING WILL DIP INTO THE LOW 30S IN THE NW TO THE LOW 40S ACROSS TEXOMA.
SHOWERS SHOULD INCREASE DURING THE DAY AS THE TROUGH PUSHES OVER THE NORTHERN ZONES DURING THE AFTERNOON. GENERAL TROUGHINESS TO THE NORTHWEST MAY GENERATE ADDITIONAL LIGHT SHOWERS THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
610 AM CST WED NOV 18 2015 WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING THE STRONG UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN KANSAS LIFTING NORTHEAST.
UPPER LOW OVER KS THIS MORNING WITH NW FLOW ACROSS CO.
The stacked low pressure system currently over central KS is forecast to lift northeastward through the morning hours. At the surface an inverted trough bisected the area from southwest to northeast. Winds on the north side of the trough are currently out of the north which is driving low level cold advection. These cooler temperatures have caused areas of fog and low ceilings. As the low lifts through the area decent low level frontogenesis will cause enough lift for scattered showers on the northwest side of the trough. Temperatures will rise into the low to mid 50s today and winds increase out of the west southwest up to 25 mph. This evening the low pressure system becomes an open wave and lifts over the upper Midwest and Great Lakes region.
508 AM EST WED NOV 18 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT.
JUST RECEIVED TWO REPORTS OF FREEZING RAIN FROM MOUNTRAIL COUNTY. HAVE ADDED A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN TO ZONES. ON THE WARM FRONT. LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A POTENT TROUGH AND JET STREAK PLOWING ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL MONTANA PUSHING TOWARD NORTH DAKOTA. ASSOCIATED CLIPPER TYPE COLD FRONT NOW INTO SOUTHEAST ALBERTA WITH REGIONAL RADAR SHOWING A COUPLE OF LIGHTNING STRIKES ALONG THE FRONT NEAR GREAT FALLS MONTANA. A LEADING EDGE OF WEAK REFLECTIVITIES ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT NOW CROSSING INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. AND AWAIT THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FOR INTRODUCING THE ISOLATED/SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS. THE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP RAPIDLY ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA MID MORNING.
THE BACK EDGE OF THE AC/CIRRUS SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS REMAINS OVER SCNTRL AR/NCNTRL LA AS OF 1130Z.
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE MID SOUTH RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S ACROSS WEST TENNESSEE NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER. RAIN WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH ACROSS THE MID SOUTH TODAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE AREA.
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS LAST EVENING SHOWED A LOW OVER CENTRAL KANSAS WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING TO THE BIG BEND REGION. COOLER AIR HAS MOVED IN WITH TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS 25 TO 30 DEGREES COOLER THAN 24 HOURS AGO. THE UPPER LOW WILL FILL AS IT MOVES TO THE NORTHEAST AND THE FLOW WILL REMAIN WEAKLY CYCLONIC OVER TEXAS DURING THIS PERIOD. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND DEEP DRY AIR WILL KEEP THE WEATHER DRY THROUGH THURSDAY.
646 AM EST WED NOV 18 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND SLIDES OFFSHORE TODAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
WE WILL SEE LIGHT RAIN TRYING TO CHANGE TO SNOW AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES AT LOWEST ELEVATIONS. SNOW LEVELS JUMP BACK UP AGAIN AHEAD A QUICK COLD FRONT TOMORROW EVENING.
1002 AM EST WED NOV 18 2015 AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE UPPER MIDWEST. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE OHIO VALLEY. BEFORE THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THIS EVENING. COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
417 AM CST WED NOV 18 2015 UPPER LEVEL LOW EJECTING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS KANSAS THIS MORNING. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN U.
UNFORTUNATELY TEMPERATURES AT CURRENT FROM OUR WEST RIVER COUNTIES THROUGH THE JAMES VALLEY ARE BELOW FREEZING. THERE MAY BE A WINDOW FOR SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN BEFORE WARM ADVECTION/DAYTIME HEATING KICK TEMPERATURES BACK ABOVE FREEZING.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. WITH HIGH PRESSURE NOSING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
THE MOISTURE WILL BE DEEP ENOUGH IN THE HIGH COUNTRY TO PRODUCE A CHANCE OF SNOW ALONG WEST FACING SLOPES BY LATE AFTN.
UPPER 50S TO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE UPPER VALLEY AND THE UPPER 60S TO THE LOWER 70S NEAR THE COAST. EXCEPT FOR THE LOWER 60S NEAR THE COAST. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES TO THE EAST ON THURSDAY ALLOWING FOR LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO RETURN ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
422 AM CST WED NOV 18 2015 MAIN CONCERN TODAY WILL BE WITH THE UPPER LOW AS IT LIFTS NORTHWARD ACROSS THE STATE. AS THE UPPER LOW PULLS OVER THE STATE TODAY. COOLER AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE STATE DURING THE DAY WITH ONLY A LIMITED CLIMB IN TEMPERATURES BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
WE HAVE OPTED TO UPGRADE THE HIGH WIND WATCH TO A WARNING FOR THE REST OF THE EASTERN PLAINS OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND WESTERN NEBRASKA STARTING AT 9 AM. BELIEVE MOST LOCATIONS IN THE HIGH WIND WARNING WILL BE AT OR NEAR HIGH WIND CRITERIA. EXPECT WINDS TO DECREASE IN THE EVENING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND SOME DECOUPLING AS THE LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. BAROCLINIC BAND AND COLD FRONT PASS OUR LOCATIONS. A BROAD LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL DOMINATE THE LARGE SCALE WEATHER PATTERN.
517 AM CST WED NOV 18 2015 Short term (Today - Tomorrow night): Upper level low which has been the catalyst for showers and thunderstorms the past few day is evident on water vapor imagery over eastern Kansas. Skies will clear tonight however winds will remain elevated enough to keep overnight lows near normal in the low to mid 30s. High pressure will build into the area on Thursday keeping conditions tranquil with near normal temperatures with highs in the mid 40s to lower 50s. High pressure will remain over the area into Thursday night before shifting eastward after midnight.
WARM FRONT FROM ABOUT DYERSBURG TO TALLAHASSEE. PRIMARY AIR MASS CHANGE (PACIFIC AIR MASS) STILL BACK BEHIND COLD FRONT IN EASTERN OKLAHOMA. SKIES WILL CLEAR FROM THE WEST THIS EVENING AS SURFACE PACIFIC HIGH BUILDS INTO THE REGION WITH LOWS TONIGHT DOWN IN THE 40S AND HIGHS ON THURSDAY IN THE LOWER 60S. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT DOWN IN THE 30S AND THERE COULD BE A FEW SPOTS WITH FREEZING TEMPS ESPECIALLY MIDDLE TENNESSEE AS HIGH PRESSURE.
554 AM EST WED NOV 18 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS LATER TODAY. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE IN STORE FOR WEEKS END. TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND DOWNSLOPING FLOW ARE EXPECTED TO HELP SUSTAIN WIND GUSTS TODAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. ACROSS THE RIDGE TOPS AND VALLEYS NEARBY. THEREFORE A WIND ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR THE RIDGE ZONES AND VALLEYS WITHIN. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT VIA SOUTHEAST FLOW MAY CAUSE LIGHT QPF ACROSS THE RIDGES DUE TO OROGRAPHIC LIFT. HAVE MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN UNTIL THE FRONT APPROACHES. THE COLD FRONT WILL SWIFTLY CROSS THE REGION EARLY TONIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS.
Short range models indicate the closed off upper level low in eastern Kansas lifting northeast into the Upper Midwest today giving way to a zonal flow aloft across the Western High Plains. Another surge of colder air will move through western Kansas tonight behind yet another cold frontal passage. The lower 30s(F) are still possible in south central Kansas. Cooler temperatures can be expected Thursday as the aforementioned cold front pushes through western Kansas by this evening. Look for highs up into the upper 40s(F) to the lower/mid 50s(F) Thursday afternoon. Once the stratus exists moves out of the HYS terminal later this morning, all three TAF sites will have SKC conditions with light westerly winds until the cold front this evening brings stronger northerly wind into the region.
409 AM CST WED NOV 18 2015 UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT FIELDS WERE UNWINDING THIS MORNING JUST BEHIND THE UPPER LOW SPINNING THROUGH EASTERN KANSAS. RESULT WILL BE MODESTLY BREEZY WEST WINDS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT FLUNG SOUTHWARD FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS SYSTEM. SURFACE WINDS ALSO ON THE LOW END OF BREEZY BEHIND THIS WEAKENING COLD FRONT.
Generally fair skies over the CWA this morning as California remains under a flat upper level ridge of high pressure. A very weak cold frontal band moving through the Pacific Northwest may bring some very light showers to the Shasta county region this morning. The rest of the week looks dry all areas under flat ridge of high pressure.
HOWEVER COULD SEE SOME BRIEF WRAPAROUND CLOUD COVER MOVE IN TO THE NRN COUNTIES THIS AFTN AS THE MAIN UPPER LOW MARCHES INTO THE SRN PLAINS. AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. POPS ARE EXPECTED TO START/INCREASE FROM FRI NIGHT INTO SAT WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. MUCH COOLER TEMPS FCST IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT. 41 A DEEP AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL MOVE N-NE TODAY LEAVING A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON THURSDAY AND THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS TO BECOME NE ON THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST.
A COLD FRONT EXTENDED SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTHEAST IOWA. TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THIS COLD FRONT RANGED FROM THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. THIS COLD FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH AND NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING NEARLY OVERHEAD FROM LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. AS THE COLD POCKET OF AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES OVERHEAD.
947 AM EST WED NOV 18 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT.
542 AM CST WED NOV 18 2015 Strong low pressure area will continue to lift northward today and reach northern MN by late this afternoon. With center of low pressure area being a 989mb low, pressure gradient is very tight, so expecting very gusty winds today, with gusts to around 40 mph possible from late this morning into the afternoon. Gusty southeast, becoming south/southwest winds will allow temps to climb back to the lower 60s in the east and mid to upper 50s in the west. Upper air pattern will be transitioning to a broad trough that covers most of the CONUS.
Strong winds continue to move through the region early this morning as a cold front maintains a southeastward progression. Precipitation is also changing to snow with the cold front passage so we are watching for any enhanced travel impacts from snow and wind.
APPROXIMATE 150 MILE WIDE BAND OF SHOWERS CONTAINING LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL IS APPROACHING AT A SLOW PACE THROUGH THE WESTERN HALF OF TENNESSEE EARLY THIS MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH A COLD FRONT.
The upper level low over eastern KS will open up and weaken as it lifts northeastward and moves through IA and WI later today. The rain should shift east of the forecast area later this morning, but will likely have patchy light rain or scattered light showers mainly across northeast MO and west central IL this morning associated with the upper level low.