Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
706 AM CDT Sat May 16 2020 For the ArkLaTex terminals numerous thunderstorms to our SW in the TX coastal are slowly working into deep E TX this am and soon into LA and AR by lunch and supper respectively as a weak upper low moves ovhd this TAF cycle. Sfc winds directions will be shifting around to SW/W as the weak surface reflection of the low drifts across the region. Our temps are all pretty much in the upper 60s and lower 70s, but there are some cooler low to mid 60s residing in the I-30 corridor. So we can expect increasing clouds and slightly cooler than average readings as a result for the day. Sunday will still be wet to start, especially in the S AR as the upper low lumbers Eastward.
VFR conditions will be in place through the period at CHA, TYS, and TRI as high pressure remains in control. High pressure remains off to our east but shifts slightly westward today and comes onshore into the Carolinas. This westward shift will result in calmer winds across the area today compared to yesterday as we will be closer to the center of the high. Temperatures are expected to be a degree or two warmer today and range from the lower to mid 80s. Weak cold front that remains to our north across KY/Ohio River will begin to lift northward again this afternoon. Slight chance POP for isolated showers and storms in place across portions of the northern Cumberland Plateau, southwest VA, northeast TN, and the high terrain of the eastern mountains again today.
Conditions should further improve through the morning into the afternoon hours with the rain finally coming to an end as the upper level trough providing the energy for this complex shifts eastward into the ArkLaTex region. However, have kept slight to chance PoPs in the forecast through Sunday as some of the hi-res models were indicating spotty showers redeveloping in the tail end of the upper trough. Slightly cooler temperatures are in store for today with highs ranging from the lower 80s to the lower 90s.
421 AM CDT Sat May 16 2020 High pressure will persist Saturday. Sunday, a low pressure system is expected to move through the area.
continue to develop across portions of the CWA early this morning even as the outflow boundary moving southward across the coastal waters continues to outrun the convection offshore the lower Texas coast. Temperatures will be near normal today with the cloud cover and slightly cooler air with the rain cooled airmass in the wake of the outflow boundary. Temperatures will be slightly warmer Sunday even with a light easterly flow at the surface.
Still looks like another nice day along and north of the highway 200 corridor, with plenty of sun and highs around 70. Water vapor loop indicated an upper trough over far western SD. Upper trough will move to eastern IA by Sun afternoon.
Once anvil cloud debris begins thinning this afternoon, some additional showers and storms may evolve generally east of the Brush Country closer to an upper trough axis.
Hazardous Boating Conditions and Rough Surf Conditions Continue Low pressure offshore, near the NW Bahamas this morning will continue to lift north to northeast, east of the coastal waters into this afternoon. Highs will range from the low to mid 80s along the coast to mid to upper 80s across the interior.
8Z sfc map shows low pressure centered across southwest Kansas near the Ok border. The sfc flow will remain weak ESE until the cold front pushes through after 00z.
Our temps are all pretty much in the upper 60s and lower 70s, but there are some cooler low to mid 60s residing in the I-30 corridor. So we can expect increasing clouds and slightly cooler than average readings as a result for the day. Sunday will still be wet to start, especially in the S AR as the upper low lumbers Eastward.
/Issued 333 AM EDT Sat May 16 2020/ Weak high pressure currently across the CWA. For the short term portion of the forecast, the CWA will be situated between two systems: the tropical low off the southeast coast and the low pressure/frontal system currently west of the Mississippi River Valley. As the tropical low moves up the southeast coast of the US, stronger high pressure wedging will build in from the northeast across much of GA and should be at it's strongest overnight. In the meantime, the low pressure/frontal system out west will cross the Mississippi River and the wedge across much of the state will begin to erode.
542 AM EDT Sat May 16 2020 Mainly dry weather is expected today with building high pressure, though isolated showers will be possible south of Pennsylvania.
06Z surface data has high pressure over the Great Lakes with a cold front running from the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys into western Kansas. Wrap around rain is expected Sunday as the low slowly makes its way to the east. Discussion: Sunday afternoon expect the upper level low to slowly be moving east. Overall the upper level closed low looks to become vertically stacked across our area, and eventually cut off from the flow. The upper level low looks to take up residence over the Great Lakes until late in the period another wave comes and pushes it out of the area. We look to have quiet weather and even though there is a strong ridge across the CONUS and a warm up, the easterly flow from the lakes will likely keep us from the summer heat.
346 PM CDT Sat May 16 2020 A recent upper level analysis shows a ridge east of the Mississippi River, a closed low near South Dakota, and an open trough in east Texas. Convection spiraling around the low in east Texas, which now has a surface inflection, is tracking into and across western portions of the CWA. Models show the 2 upper lows blending together as they track east to the Mississippi Valley on Sunday.
This low will deepen some as it lifts northeast tonight, with precipitation maximizing across our area near the inverted trough that will extend northward from it. The large scale pattern looks to amplify in the wake of this weekend's system, with ridging developing across the central and eastern US as a deep upper trough sets up over the west. Our current system looks to cutoff beneath the upper ridge and loiter across the Ohio and Tennessee vallyes for much of the week.
A cold front will be moving into the Mississippi valley on Sunday. Will keep the low PoPs confined to the Plateau and Southern Valley. The extended is expected to be unsettled with an anomalous upper low across the region, and with these closed lows, forecast confidence is generally lower.
1130 AM MDT Sat May 16 2020 Updated Aviation Discussion Weak high pressure aloft shifting across the region today will provide relatively dry and quiet conditions across north-central and southwest MT through this evening. As it does, expect morning low clouds and fog to dissipate, as warmer air moves back into the region.
For the remainder of the afternoon, with high pressure building off the Rockies, the region will see a continued slow clearing of any low clouds that currently linger. Some light shower activity is forming around the upper low circulation over Nebraska at this time.
Cannot totally rule out some late afternoon shra/tstm redevelopment further south, but overall chances of an individual terminal being impacted appears to be on the low side.
1056 AM CDT Sat May 16 2020 Current satellite imagery shows a low pressure system over southeast Texas, while water vapor shows a boundary draped from north central Arkansas through northern Mississippi. Otherwise, the forecast looks to be on track, highs should generally be in the lower 80s. A humid airmass is in place across the region with surface dewpoints in the lower to middle 60s and temperatures as of 3 AM CDT in the middle 60s to around 70 degrees. Models indicate a mid-level trough over East Texas will gradually move northeast into the Lower Mississippi Valley on Sunday.
(This through Tonight) Satellite and radar observations show closed low just south of DFW moving northeast toward the Arklatex region. Weak convection should mostly be confined to higher terrain of northeast New Mexico and could drift onto the High Plains, but is unlikely to sustain into western Oklahoma.
This has allowed temperatures to warm into the mid- and upper 60s north of Interstate 94 and into the lower 70s elsewhere. The HREF continues to suggest the highest rainfall amounts will be in the 2 to 3 inch range. On Sunday, the closed low pressure area will move slowly east through the region. It continues to look like the low pressure system will be much slower moving out of the region.
Upper level ridge this morning will bring dry conditions and warmer temperatures. Clouds will increase this afternoon with isolated showers and thunderstorms developing across Southeast Oregon ahead of the next low pressure system. Isolated showers in the lower Snake Plain.
A similar but slightly warmer pattern is expected tomorrow, with high temperatures ranging from the upper 80s to low 90s.
The cold front will move eastward across the region Sunday afternoon and evening, and this should provide a focus for convection.
448 PM EDT Sat May 16 2020 Ridging aloft and a Bermuda High at the surface will support summerlike conditions through this weekend. Unsettled and cooler conditions will set up early in the week as a large low pressure system settles over the region and lingers through much of the upcoming week. As of 445 pm Saturday: Visible satellite imagery reveals a decently healthy late day cumulus field, but without much vertical extent except on the mountain ridge tops. Expect essentially more of the same through the daylight hours Sunday, as upper ridging remains the dominant synoptic feature across the region.
A few models improve moisture convergence along this boundary after midnight all the while an upper trough axis remains draped over the region. Opted to keep slight PoPs over the waters and most of the coastal counties until late morning once the upper trough departs ahead of subsidence and lower PWATs.
The last of light rain is exiting the Lower Texas Gulf waters but plenty of thick clouds remain.
355 PM CDT Sat May 16 2020 Current satellite imagery shows a low pressure system over southeast Texas pushing towards the ArkLaMiss area. The second, stronger low pressure will swing down to the Ohio Valley pushing a cold front across the region.
Small hail and a few funnel clouds remain possible; however, deep mixing and a lack of directional shear in the low levels should keep any weak rotation confined to near cloud bases.
Anticipate better chances for convective evolution over parts of NE/IA, and likewise we may see a better probability for convection within our CWA along the trailing surface cold front this evening southward from this aforementioned activity. Low-level stratus anticipated behind cold frontal passage.
It will be cooler on Sunday as onshore flow begins to pick up.
230 PM EDT Sat May 16 2020 A low pressure system. The low to our east will provide northeast and north 1000-700 MB flow over the area that streams in some higher moisture through the rest of today. As the low tracks to the north the flow become more northwest and west with drier air filtering overnight and Sun. with troughiness stretching down aloft the Gulf of Mexico. Some short waves rotating through the troughiness above the Gulf along with the frontal boundary will supply enough lift and moisture for ample coverage of showers and a few thunderstorms under some cloudiness.
239 PM CDT Sat May 16 2020 The forecast area is under northwesterly upper flow between an upper low over East Texas and an upper ridge over the desert southwest. The upper ridge will move eastward across New Mexico tomorrow. Increasing heights and thicknesses support modestly warmer temperatures than those of today and in line with MOS and model/forecast initialization.
314 PM CDT Sat May 16 2020 It was a wet morning in our western and northern zones in lift/dynamics ahead of a closed upper low pressure system tracking east across South Dakota today. The center of the upper low reaches NW Iowa by Sunday morning and some wrap around showers/sprinkles are expected to extend south into northeast Neb and our northeast zones may be on the edge of some sprinkles and will need to monitor, but any precip heading into Sunday should be negligible. Sunday is shaping up to be fairly cloudy especially across our east/northeast zones in the cold air aloft associated with the upper low pressure system in Iowa. a much warmer weather pattern will arrive for the upcoming week.
Activity associated with low pressure currently positioned over northeast Texas. This feature will advance east sending a cold front across the region Sunday. The region is between a ridge that stretches from the Atlantic, an area of low pressure over the central plains, and a cold front that stretches from the Ozarks to New England.
157 PM CDT Sat May 16 2020 It was a warm and partly sunny day with temps in the low to mid 80s. Shower and thunderstorm chances will increase Sunday as a weakening low pressure system moves in from the Lower Ms Valley and a stronger low pressure swings down to the Ohio Valley with a cold front.
Good chance that low ceilings (MVFR) develop overnight at most sites, with the highest probability at COT and LRD. Once anvil cloud debris begins thinning this afternoon, some additional showers and storms may evolve generally east of the Brush Country closer to an upper trough axis.
312 PM EDT Sat May 16 2020 High pressure sliding by well to the north of Pennsylvania today will extend its ridge south in the state, bringing fair, dry weather with near normal temperatures for the rest of this afternoon and tonight, along with comfortable humidity. A closed upper low will develop over the Midwest and move slowly southeast to the middle Ohio River Valley and Central Appalachians by the middle of the upcoming week.
1129 AM MDT Sat May 16 2020 Water vapor shows upper low over southeast MT with upper ridge over the far western CONUS. At the surface, low is centered over the NEB panhandle with inverted trof extending northeast into southwest/south central SD, coinciding well with the most concentrated area of precip. Upper low advances slowly southeast across western/central SD today.
Areas along and north of highway 2 continue to see the most sun, and therefore slightly warmer temperatures. Still looks like another nice day along and north of the highway 200 corridor, with plenty of sun and highs around 70. Water vapor loop indicated an upper trough over far western SD. Upper trough will move to eastern IA by Sun afternoon.
1215 PM CDT Sat May 16 2020 (Today and tonight) The upper trough over the southern Plains will slowly move east today with showers and storms likely, especially in the southeast.
210 PM EDT Sat May 16 2020 Ridging aloft and a Bermuda High at the surface will support summerlike conditions through this weekend. Unsettled and cooler conditions will set up early in the week as a large low pressure system settles over the region and lingers through much of the upcoming week. As of 155 pm Saturday: The latest satellite imagery and SPC mesoanalysis data reveal a generally suppressed/stable regime across the forecast area this afternoon, except for some spotty congestus along the high ridges of the southern Appalachians. Essentially more of the same through the daylight hours Sunday, as upper ridging remains the dominant synoptic feature across the region.
Heading into Sunday, southwesterly flow will allow temperatures to warm into the 70s to lower 80s, along with a few thunderstorms late in the day, mainly over the higher terrain in the west.
1134 AM EDT Sat May 16 2020 High pressure sliding by well to the north of Pennsylvania today will extend its ridge south in the state, bringing fair and cooler weather with lower humidity. A closed upper low will develop over the Midwest and move slowly southeast to the middle Ohio River Valley and Central Appalachians by the middle of the upcoming week.
Visible satellite shows mostly sunny skies with some cu along the Lower Keys and some remaining patches of cu and strato- cu moving across the Upper Keys at times. Winds for the most part have relaxed with light and variable winds across the Lower Keys. Behind this disturbance, weak high pressure is settling into the eastern Gulf of Mexico. This weak high pressure will drift back to the west as a thermal trough develops over the mainland from daytime heating.
Upper trof stretching north-south across east Texas will make slow eastward progress into Arkansas and Lousiana. At the surface, a trof axis/low pressure area situated just north and east of the Brazos Valley should continue moving to the northeast tonight. Further south, on the backside of the low, winds will be shifting to the nw.
304 PM CDT Sat May 16 2020 Scattered showers and thunderstorms continued to spread from southeast to northwest across much of Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas in response to a low pressure system currently slowly lifting east northeast across East Texas. The bulk of the thunderstorm activity was associated with a band of precip lifting northwest into far Southeast Oklahoma as it wraps around the low pressure system. Also wrapping around the low is ample amounts of low level moisture with precipitable water values in the 1. will have the higher potential for flooding conditions. the low pressure system is expected to continue to lift east northeast into Southern Arkansas by Sunday morning. The greater precip potential through tonight should be over Southeast Oklahoma into Western Arkansas associated with the low as it lifts northeast. Behind the departing cold front.
Daytime heating and convective temperatures being reached has resulted in recent cumulus development over and near the higher terrain of our eastern/central areas. Not much has changed in the weather scenario for Sunday into Sunday night with the approach of the upper low/trough.
Still expecting a beautiful day today followed by warmer and windier conditions for Sunday.
A cold front continues to work its way into our area this afternoon. The upper low is currently centered around 135W, and there is a noticeable amount of convection occuring within the low right now, and this bodes well for convection as it moves over land.
/issued 806 AM EDT Sat May 16 2020/ An area of low pressure (Invest 90) off the southeast FL coast tracks across the northwestern Bahamas today. The highest odds of rainfall is expected inland. As the low moves out over the Atlantic this evening some drier air sweeps into the area over night. Low pressure tracking along the east coast of FL today will shift northeast winds to northwest in afternoon.
Clouds linger through the morning across most of the region, then decrease in the afternoon leaving partly cloudy to mostly sunny skies with highs in the mid 80s to the lower 90s.
Surface convergence is expected to be weak as well even as the surface cold front gets more of a push eastward tonight across eastern Kansas.
249 PM CDT Sat May 16 2020 (Tonight and Sunday) Upper low over Northcentral Texas was moving slowly northeast this afternoon. Wraparound clouds over the Big Country were keeping temperatures on the cooler side in the 60s, with 70s to lower 80s farther south. Skies will gradually clear over the Big Country overnight as the upper low moves east.
/issued 421 AM CDT Sat May 16 2020/ High pressure will persist Saturday. Sunday, a low pressure system is expected to move through the area.
210 PM MDT Sat May 16 2020 Rain showers continue to decrease in coverage and intensity over parts of northeastern Wyoming and northwestern South Dakota this afternoon and will gradually end over much of the the rest of the area early this evening as the slow moving upper low continues to move off to the east.
Messaging will need to continue emphasizing this high degree of uncertainty until ensembles and other model come more into line with each other.
/issued 1056 AM CDT Sat May 16 2020/ Current satellite imagery shows a low pressure system over southeast Texas, while water vapor shows a boundary draped from north central Arkansas through northern Mississippi. Otherwise, the forecast looks to be on track, highs should generally be in the lower 80s. A humid airmass is in place across the region with surface dewpoints in the lower to middle 60s and temperatures as of 3 AM CDT in the middle 60s to around 70 degrees. Models indicate a mid-level trough over East Texas will gradually move northeast into the Lower Mississippi Valley on Sunday.
241 PM CDT Sat May 16 2020 An upper trough is over Texas and Oklahoma with another upper trough over South Dakota. The upper troughs will push eastward on Sunday with upper ridging building over the region. There is a slight chance of an isolated thunderstorm or two developing in the Davis Mountains where the low-level moisture encounters lift from the higher terrain.
For tonight, an upper low will lift north into western AR with an upper level shear axis becoming better defined over the MO Ozarks. Temperatures will be cool to start the period with an upper level low cutting off to our east. A highly amplified blocking upper level pattern over the CONUS will "slow the weather down a bit" with a moderating temperatures as a slow moving upper level ridge builds into our area later in the week. We have some modest rain chances late in the week as the blocking pattern breaks down, but right now nothing highly impactful is expected for this period. A cold front will move through the region late in the period with a period of post frontal IFR ceilings.
637 PM CDT Sat May 16 2020 It was a wet morning in our western and northern zones in lift/dynamics ahead of a closed upper low pressure system tracking east across South Dakota today. The center of the upper low reaches NW Iowa by Sunday morning and some wrap around showers/sprinkles are expected to extend south into northeast Neb and our northeast zones may be on the edge of some sprinkles and will need to monitor, but any precip heading into Sunday should be negligible. Sunday is shaping up to be fairly cloudy especially across our east/northeast zones in the cold air aloft associated with the upper low pressure system in Iowa. a much warmer weather pattern will arrive for the upcoming week.
954 PM CDT Sat May 16 2020 Showers ahead of a low pressure system located over the ARKLATEX is beginning to spread into the Mid-South. /issued 355 PM CDT Sat May 16 2020/ Current satellite imagery shows a low pressure system over southeast Texas pushing towards the ArkLaMiss area. The second, stronger low pressure will swing down to the Ohio Valley pushing a cold front across the region.
A low pressure system. The low to our east will provide northeast and north 1000-700 MB flow over the area that streams in some higher moisture through the rest of today. As the low tracks to the north the flow become more northwest and west with drier air filtering overnight and Sun. with troughiness stretching down aloft the Gulf of Mexico. Some short waves rotating through the troughiness above the Gulf along with the frontal boundary will supply enough lift and moisture for ample coverage of showers and a few thunderstorms under some cloudiness.
High pressure aloft over Utah this evening will shift east of the state as a strong upper level trough approaches the West Coast tomorrow.
Otherwise fairly quiet this evening with the high clouds and temps slowly falling into the 50s after sunset.
Overall, we expect a fairly warm and humid night across the TN Valley, as deep- layer SSW flow will continue to strengthen downstream from a weak upper low tracking across the Arklatex region. Under more clouds than sun, scattered showers and thunderstorms are in the forecast on Sunday, as the two aformentioned areas of low pressure merge over the mid Mississippi Valley region during Sun afternoon/evening.
/issued 241 PM CDT Sat May 16 2020/ An upper trough is over Texas and Oklahoma with another upper trough over South Dakota. The upper troughs will push eastward on Sunday with upper ridging building over the region. There is a slight chance of an isolated thunderstorm or two developing in the Davis Mountains where the low-level moisture encounters lift from the higher terrain.