Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
926 PM EST Tue Dec 3 2019 High pressure will prevail through the week.
/Issued 314 PM CST Tue Dec 3 2019/ Tonight will be a slightly warmer night than last night with light winds.
445 PM CST Tue Dec 3 2019 /00Z TAFS/ A cold frontal passage means that winds will be shifting to more northerly across the terminals if they have not already done so. /issued 232 PM CST Tue Dec 3 2019/ (Tonight and Wednesday) As indicated by surface wind observations, a weak and dry surface cold front is moving into the Big Country this afternoon and models indicate the front will move south through the rest of the region through late afternoon/early evening. South of the front, temperatures as of 1 pm have reached into the low to mid 70s, while in the Big Country (where the front is moving through currently), temperatures are mainly in the low to mid 60s. Wednesday, surface winds will turn southerly by afternoon, allowing temperatures to recover pretty well from the previous night's cold front.
An elongated 500mb trough will swing through the region late this afternoon. A couple of models hint at some very light QPF over the several hours as the trough passes through, but model soundings show quite a bit of dry air in the low levels of the atmosphere, so it appears highly unlikely that anything more than sprinkles would make it to the ground. Skies should clear quickly tonight from west to east behind the trough as it pushes off to the east coast. Tomorrow is shaping up to be quite a mild and sunny day in the wake of the trough.
Temperatures barely reached the lower 50s as pesky cirrus clouds steadily streamed into the area throughout the day. Light winds and mainly clear skies will allow temperatures to fall into the low to mid 30s again overnight.
Issued by National Weather Service Jackson MS 343 PM CST Tue Dec 3 2019 The 500 mb pattern across the country is marked by troughing over the eastern half of the CONUS, with northwesterly flow dipping into the region. Weak surface ridging dominates the weather over the southeastern CONUS, extending up into central Tennessee. There may be some slight variability in wind direction in the overnight hours as the winds decouple in a weak pressure gradient under the ridge axis. A cooler start to the evening will result in a little less of a diurnal swing across the east. The cooler temps in the east continues through the high temperatures tomorrow, with winds slowly veering to more westerly, bringing the temps up a few degrees warmer than today. Come late in the week, an upper trough will swing through the area.
Overnight lows will be in the 30s, with most locations remaining above freezing. Expect sunny skies and warmer temperatures tomorrow, with highs mainly in the low to mid 60s.
The saturated layer aloft is lying within the dendritic growth zone, but its likely that a large portion of the crystals falling out of this region are evaporating before reaching the lower clouds. Its possible that there could be a period of more widespread light snow just ahead of the trough as the large scale ascension will help to eliminate the dry layer.
A slightly better radiation condition is expected tonight and lows in the valleys could dip into the lower 20s. The guidance blend plus bias correction was the basis for the lows tonight and Wednesday night. Lows Wednesday are cooler than tonight with teens and 20s versus 20s across the board tonight. This forecast is much cooler than the guidance blend.
448 PM MST Tue Dec 3 2019 A transitory ridge building to our west will provide a brief period of dry and calm weather conditions, as the next low pressure system pushes inland off the southern coast of California. Winds will shift from the south-southwest by Wednesday morning, as the ridge axis pushes east of the Rockies and the closed low over SoCal moves further inland. However, once this low lifts across the Great Basin, a more significant source of moisture and lift will enter our region.
This in combination with more high cloudiness should keep temperatures slightly cooler than those of today.
/issued 245 PM CST Tue Dec 3 2019/ WV imagery shows NW flow aloft over West Texas and Southeast New Mexico, courtesy of an upper ridge over the SW CONUS. At the sfc, a weak cold front is working south through the area. Wednesday, a closed low on the west side of the ridge will make landfall on the west coast, nudging the ridge east through the region.
418 PM MST Tue Dec 3 2019 Broad upper ridging over the western CONUS is placing the northern plains beneath northwest flow.
VFR to prevail before the low clouds and fog set in lowering conditions to IFR to possibly LIFR. /issued 254 PM CST Tue Dec 3 2019/ SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday Night): Relatively dry and stable ridging at the surface and 500 mb levels will maintain pretty quiet conditions across the RGV and Deep South TX throughout Wed Night. The low level dewpoints will continue working upwards through Thurs morning. The cooler temperatures will also moderate steadily throughout the upcoming period allowing the max/mins to moderate somewhat. Although the low level moisture return will increase the cld cover throughout the period, deep layer moisture will remain too limited to need the mention of any significant pops.
649 PM EST Tue Dec 3 2019 Fair and cool conditions continue as dry high pressure builds into the area. The air mass will moderate through mid week with slightly warmer than normal temperatures. A low pressure system will move into the region late week with a chance of rain.
610 PM CST Tue Dec 3 2019 Very quiet short-term period with a drooping cold front sitting in south-central Canada and high pressure encompassing much of the central and western Lower 48 states. A warmer flow of air into the region south of the Canadian warm front has resulted in highs today roughly 10 degrees warmer than yesterday for much of the WFO MPX coverage area. The mild downslope winds off the Rockies being brought into the region will continue tonight through tomorrow as the cold front remains to the north and plenty of sunshine can be expected during the day on Wednesday. The only exception may be far eastern MN into western WI where low stratus may develop with the cold front dropping into the Great Lakes and northern Wisconsin. Highs are still expected to range into the low-mid 30s.
653 PM EST Tue Dec 3 2019 High pressure will prevail through the week.
The aforementioned disturbance rotating around the long wave trough will pass east of the Alleghenies shortly, and is producing a fairly decent area of light precipitation over southwest PA late this evening which will overspread the Laurels before midnight.
645 PM EST Tue Dec 3 2019 Quiet and benign fcst period on tap as the regime remains mainly under NW flow aloft and ridge dominated dry conditions.
It is in these valleys that patchy freezing rain may develop on Wednesday morning. This will bring light snow to higher terrain and isolated freezing rain to lower valleys in northwest Montana.
The 500 mb pattern across the country is marked by troughing over the eastern half of the CONUS, with northwesterly flow dipping into the region. Weak surface ridging dominates the weather over the southeastern CONUS, extending up into central Tennessee. There may be some slight variability in wind direction in the overnight hours as the winds decouple in a weak pressure gradient under the ridge axis. A cooler start to the evening will result in a little less of a diurnal swing across the east. The cooler temps in the east continues through the high temperatures tomorrow, with winds slowly veering to more westerly, bringing the temps up a few degrees warmer than today. Come late in the week, an upper trough will swing through the area.
337 PM CST Tue Dec 3 2019 Very quiet short-term period with a drooping cold front sitting in south-central Canada and high pressure encompassing much of the central and western Lower 48 states. A warmer flow of air into the region south of the Canadian warm front has resulted in highs today roughly 10 degrees warmer than yesterday for much of the WFO MPX coverage area. The mild downslope winds off the Rockies being brought into the region will continue tonight through tomorrow as the cold front remains to the north and plenty of sunshine can be expected during the day on Wednesday. The only exception may be far eastern MN into western WI where low stratus may develop with the cold front dropping into the Great Lakes and northern Wisconsin. Highs are still expected to range into the low-mid 30s.
Temperatures are currently in the mid 60s with dew points ranging from near 60 in the Lower Keys to lower 50s in the Upper Keys. Through the lower levels, the Keys are on the southern fringes of a broad cyclonic flow blanketing the eastern United States. Overnight lows will range from 60 to 65 in the Lower and Middle Keys due to weaker flow over relatively warm water, and 55 to 60 in the Upper Keys due to being in the direct lee of the mainland. A strengthening trough off the Atlantic coast will result in a light to gentle northwest breeze developing on Keys waters overnight.
High pressure rebuilding behind a weak frontal boundary moving east across the region will generate light northwest winds tonight through 04/18Z before becoming variable and continuing through Wednesday evening. There is not much if any additional cold air behind this front, so overnight lows should generally remaining above freezing tonight. Additional cirrus cloud cover may also keep temperatures a degree or two warmer. More thin cirrus is expected during the day Wednesday, but abundant sunshine combined surface ridging overhead should overcome any effects from the cloud cover.
These high clouds will remain thin and have little affect on morning low temperatures but, lows will be several degrees warmer than they were this morning. Overnight lows will be in the 30s, with most locations remaining above freezing. Expect sunny skies and warmer temperatures tomorrow, with highs mainly in the low to mid 60s.
1228 AM EST Wed Dec 4 2019 High pressure will prevail through the week.
Snow amounts will be minor; mainly focused over grass and elevated bridges in our lower elevations due to road temperatures hovering slightly above freezing. There may be a brief period of rain in lower elevations while the temperature warms to above freezing throughout the afternoon. The ridges may pick up a couple inches, with less elsewhere.
I made a few spots cooler on the Plateau with this update, but even that might not be enough with the radiational cooling.
1038 PM MST Tue Dec 3 2019 Broad upper ridging over the western CONUS is placing the northern plains beneath northwest flow.
Sandwiched between building high pressure over the central US and deep longwave troughing over the eastern seaboard, the Ohio Valley will experience a tightening pressure gradient resulting in strong westerly winds throughout the day. Morning min temps in the low to mid 30s will increase to the low to mid 50s by mid afternoon.
1037 PM MST Tue Dec 3 2019 A transitory ridge building to our west will provide a brief period of dry and calm weather conditions, as the next low pressure system pushes inland off the southern coast of California. Winds will shift from the south-southwest by Wednesday morning, as the ridge axis pushes east of the Rockies and the closed low over SoCal moves further inland. However, once this low lifts across the Great Basin, a more significant source of moisture and lift will enter our region.
226 AM CST Wed Dec 4 2019 Some high level clouds were streaming southeast across southeast Iowa and west cental Illinois early this morning in the wake of the passage of a low pressure trough now in Indiana. A ridge of high pressure was seen building in the plains. Otherwise, a pleasant early December day is expected with plenty of sunshine and high temperatures in the lower 40s along Highway 20 to the upper 40 to lower 50s in SE Iowa, NW Missouri, and west central Illinois. Tonight, the ridge of high pressure will move across the area resulting in mostly clear and calm conditions.
327 AM EST Wed Dec 4 2019 The morning surface analysis shows a weak trough axis is moving across the Ohio Valley this morning. In the upper levels we see a trough axis pushing east and northwest flow aloft. By this evening we will see this pressure gradient slacken, as an area of high pressure builds in from the southwest. This will allow for more pronounced ridge/valley temperature splits tonight under mostly clear skies.
Upper level heights are a bit lower than yesterday with the trough axis nearby but with plenty of insolation, temperatures will warm into the upper 40s to mid 50s for most locations. High pressure continues to build further to the east tonight as a clipper system passes well to the north.
1249 AM EST Wed Dec 4 2019 Fair and cool conditions continue as dry high pressure builds into the area. The air mass will moderate through mid week with slightly warmer than normal temperatures. A low pressure system will move into the region late week with a chance of rain.
400 AM EST Wed Dec 4 2019 The morning surface analysis shows a weak trough axis is moving across the Ohio Valley this morning. In the upper levels we see a trough axis pushing east and northwest flow aloft. By this evening we will see this pressure gradient slacken, as an area of high pressure builds in from the southwest. This will allow for more pronounced ridge/valley temperature splits tonight under mostly clear skies.
/issued 642 PM CST Tue Dec 3 2019/ Temperatures this evening are 10-15 degrees warmer than they were at this time last night, in the upper 30s to middle 40s. We should see temperatures cool into the mid 30s by morning, remaining above freezing for most of the Midsouth. Temperatures barely reached the lower 50s as pesky cirrus clouds steadily streamed into the area throughout the day. Light winds and mainly clear skies will allow temperatures to fall into the low to mid 30s again overnight.
1053 PM CST Tue Dec 3 2019 Very quiet short-term period with a drooping cold front sitting in south-central Canada and high pressure encompassing much of the central and western Lower 48 states. A warmer flow of air into the region south of the Canadian warm front has resulted in highs today roughly 10 degrees warmer than yesterday for much of the WFO MPX coverage area. The mild downslope winds off the Rockies being brought into the region will continue tonight through tomorrow as the cold front remains to the north and plenty of sunshine can be expected during the day on Wednesday. The only exception may be far eastern MN into western WI where low stratus may develop with the cold front dropping into the Great Lakes and northern Wisconsin. Highs are still expected to range into the low-mid 30s.
Then as we head into the weekend, a weak cold front is forecast to stall across the northern Florida peninsula, but this should not have too much of an effect on the local area.
213 AM CST Wed Dec 4 2019 Plenty of mid and high level clouds will be found across the Panhandles today ahead of a short wave trough moving onshore in Southern California. The clouds will likely keep temperatures a tad cooler today as compared to yesterday despite the uptick in downsloping winds.
234 AM CST Wed Dec 4 2019 High pressure remains over the Gulf Coast this morning.
345 AM EST Wed Dec 4 2019 High pressure will dominate the sensible weather through the short term period.
High pressure will direct a dry westerly flow into the forecast area through tonight.
Weak low pressure will move in tonight, but prior to that stronger northwest flow aloft will be the only dominant feature.
While the eastern CONUS trough will remain overhead today a combination of warming low-level temps and deeper mixing will result in high temperatures reaching the 60s region-wide. Though we won't quite reach the seasonal normals in the upper 60s, it will be much warmer than yesterday.
Westerly surface flow and abundant sun will result in warmer temps today.
257 AM CST Wed Dec 4 2019 Even though a trough of low pressure moved across Minnesota late evening, gusty westerly winds were still quite mild. Temperatures were still above freezing over west central, and parts of southern Minnesota as of 2 am.
A weak cold front is pushing through the area as we head towards sunrise this morning, with winds shifting offshore in its wake. Despite this, wind speeds should remain fairly light and overall flow should begin to shift back onshore before the approach of a second cold front on Thursday night. By Thursday, we return to an onshore wind regime and as a result should experience an uptick in dew points into the high 50s to low 60s by the afternoon, with global guidance showing a slight surge of PWAT values towards the 1.
321 AM CST Wed Dec 4 2019 Early this morning an upper low was located over the Eastern Pacific off the California coast. Northwest flow aloft was noted over the Plains this morning while a trough moves into the eastern states. Models continue to be consistent with moving the above mentioned upper low eastward into the Four Corners by Thursday morning. This will allow for some ridging downstream across the southern Plains tonight. Lows expected to fall into the low to mid 30s tonight. Thursday looks to start out dry, with increasing chances for some light rain by late afternoon and into the evening hours as the upper trough and associated frontogenetic forcing moves across the southern Plains.
Early this morning an upper low was located over the Eastern Pacific off the California coast. Northwest flow aloft was noted over the Plains this morning while a trough moves into the eastern states. Models continue to be consistent with moving the above mentioned upper low eastward into the Four Corners by Thursday morning. This will allow for some ridging downstream across the southern Plains tonight. Lows expected to fall into the low to mid 30s tonight. Thursday looks to start out dry, with increasing chances for some light rain by late afternoon and into the evening hours as the upper trough and associated frontogenetic forcing moves across the southern Plains.
335 AM CST Wed Dec 4 2019 An upper trough is just off the California coast with upper ridging over West Texas and southeast New Mexico. Temperatures across the area will be cooler than yesterday but still above normal. The upper trough from the west coast will move toward the region and weaken on Thursday. Strong winds from the base of the upper trough will mix down to the surface across the area. A cold front associated with the previously mentioned upper trough will push into the area Thursday night.
Northern stream upper level ridge is located across the northern Rockies. Weak impulse in northwest flow skips along the Canadian border Thursday, with shallow intrusion of cooler air slipping into forecast area during the day.
A cold front will move into the area Thursday as a disturbance dives into the Great Lakes region and the upper low to the southwest approaches the southern Plains.
Temperatures will be slightly cooler than yesterday but still above normal, with afternoon highs ranging from the upper 60s across the Big Country, to the lower 70s elsewhere. Expect warmer temperatures, with overnight lows mainly in the 40s.
The forecast for this afternoon looks on track with temperatures a few degrees cooler than seasonal and just a few clouds.
/Issued 213 AM CST Wed Dec 4 2019/ Plenty of mid and high level clouds will be found across the Panhandles today ahead of a short wave trough moving onshore in Southern California. The clouds will likely keep temperatures a tad cooler today as compared to yesterday despite the uptick in downsloping winds. A cold front will then move through the Panhandles Thursday afternoon and evening.
This gradient is partially explained by cloud cover, with GOES-East infrared imagery showing stratus across the Lower and Middle Keys while the Upper Keys have stayed mostly clear through the overnight.
The morning surface analysis shows a weak trough axis is moving across the Ohio Valley this morning. In the upper levels we see a trough axis pushing east and northwest flow aloft. By this evening we will see this pressure gradient slacken, as an area of high pressure builds in from the southwest. This will allow for more pronounced ridge/valley temperature splits tonight under mostly clear skies. Thursday looks dry underneath high pressure just to out east, but increasing mid to high level clouds are possible late in the day ahead of the next upper level wave.
/Issued 236 AM CST Wed Dec 4 2019/ The main item of mention in the forecast this morning is rain/thunder potential Thursday night in association with an upper low pressure system currently sitting just off the southern CA coast. Upper low pressure sitting just off the southern CA coast is starting to move east as it gets "kicked" by an upstream system that will take its place over the northeastern Pacific.
It will turn briefly cooler on Thursday w/ quite a bit of cloud cover and a cold frontal passage.
Sandwiched between building high pressure over the central US and deep longwave troughing over the eastern seaboard, the Ohio Valley will experience a tightening pressure gradient resulting in strong westerly winds throughout the day. Morning min temps in the low to mid 30s will increase to the low to mid 50s by mid afternoon. Expect winds to decrease with the setting sun as temperatures drop overnight to the low to mid 30s by Thursday morning under mostly clear skies.
743 AM MST Wed Dec 4 2019 An upper ridge over the area today will bring a dry and mild day to the forecast area. Temperatures will be 10 to 15 degrees colder behind the cold front on Thursday.
Have kept some mention of flurries and patchy freezing drizzle this morning as cloud depth will play a part in droplet growth. Forecast soundings indicate the potential for freezing drizzle again tomorrow, but will the dynamics of an approaching upper trough influence the low-level moisture profile? The upper trough will work its way through NV/UT overnight.
High pressure off the coast of Louisiana will slide into the area today and expand across much of the southeast. The high will drift east tonight and be centered over the east Central Alabama. Winds will calm and temperatures will bottom out into the low to mid 30s.
Upper level ridging today will become more zonal on Thursday as a trough moves across the Four Corners. A weak front will move trough this morning shifting winds to the north, though they will stay fairly light through the day.
635 AM EST Wed Dec 4 2019 The morning surface analysis shows a weak trough axis is moving across the Ohio Valley this morning. In the upper levels we see a trough axis pushing east and northwest flow aloft. By this evening we will see this pressure gradient slacken, as an area of high pressure builds in from the southwest. This will allow for more pronounced ridge/valley temperature splits tonight under mostly clear skies. Thursday looks dry underneath high pressure just to out east, but increasing mid to high level clouds are possible late in the day ahead of the next upper level wave.
A longwave trough is accelerating eastward, leaving us with northwest flow aloft and westerlies at the surface. Temperatures this afternoon will be 7 to 10 degrees warmer than yesterday, closer to normal values for early December.
Increasing cirrus tonight should help keep temperatures from falling below freezing.
320 AM MST Wed Dec 4 2019 The flow aloft will aloft will be westerly today and then become more southwest late tonight in advance of an upper level trough. A weakening upper trof which is now off the southern California coast will move across Colorado on Thursday with snow showers in the mountains and a chance of rain and snow showers across the plains as well. There is some cold advection with the system as 700mb temperatures cool to around -4C by Thursday afternoon with cooler afternoon highs. Not much of any cold front and any upslope looks to be very shallow.
/Issued 345 AM EST Wed Dec 4 2019/ High pressure will dominate the sensible weather through the short term period. High pressure currently centered across central TX will meander eastward through Thursday.