Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
A mid-level upper trough was moving through Kansas early this morning. The ridge passes this evening and southwest boundary layer flow develops. As this cold frontal boundary passes, showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop.
251 PM EDT THU MAY 12 2016 An approaching cold front will cross the forecast area Friday morning.
214 PM EDT THU MAY 12 2016 Periodic shower and thunderstorm chances will persist until the passage of a Friday morning cold front.
A dome of high pressure will continue to slide eastward tonight shifting winds to the southwest by this evening. This will help push a cold front through the area tomorrow afternoon. Mostly clear skies are expected tomorrow with the exception of along the cold front tomorrow afternoon where increase cloudiness will be possible. As for temperatures, lows tonight look to generally be in the lower 50s with the exception of west central Kansas where upper 40s may be reached.
A cold front will move through the cwa this evening into tonight with some showers and storms expected. High pressure will be building in Friday with dry weather expected for Friday and Friday night. Cooler northerly flow will keep highs Friday mainly in the low 80s. with lows Friday night mainly in the low to mid 50s.
Brief surface ridging behind this boundary will make for a mainly dry period with lows dropping into the 40s.
Do have a thin band of precip right along the cold front, just now entering far western KY. Actual cold front is just west of the Wabash Valley this hour and expected to move across the region by this evening. Friday, expect high pressure briefly to ridge into the region from the Lower Mississippi Valley.
/issued 329 AM CDT THU MAY 12 2016/ Much cooler today behind a cold front with scattered showers and thunderstorms possible. At the surface a cold front/outflow boundary continues to push quickly south across the area with gusty northerly winds behind it. The rest of the area will see much cooler conditions with highs struggling to reach 80 degrees. This front is associated with an upper trough slowly moving across the Northern Plains into the Western Great Lakes. Upper ridging will then develop to our west through the end of the week putting us in a weak NW mid level flow.
Actual cold front is just west of the Wabash Valley this hour and expected to move across the region by this evening. Friday, expect high pressure briefly to ridge into the region from the Lower Mississippi Valley.
616 PM EDT THU MAY 12 2016 Periodic shower and thunderstorm chances will persist until the passage of a Friday morning cold front.
125 PM EDT THU MAY 12 2016 High pressure will persist through tonight.
321 PM EDT THU MAY 12 2016 High pressure will slide offshore tonight and Friday. A cold front will approach the region on Friday, then slowly cross the region Friday night.
339 PM EDT THU MAY 12 2016 High pressure over the Western Atlantic waters will weaken through Friday allowing for a cold front over the Central United States to move southeast into the Southeast United States.
254 PM CDT THU MAY 12 2016 A cold front has finally made its way through Central Illinois and showers are beginning to dwindle in the southeast. A quiet night anticipated overall with temperatures dropping into the low 50s and upper 40s, with slowly clearing skies. Large upper low spinning over Lake Winnipeg this afternoon will start sliding southeast toward Lake Superior on Friday. The associated cold front is taking shape west of the low, and will be dropping southeast across the forecast area Friday evening. Rather narrow line of convection suggested by some of the high-resolution models with some light showers behind the front, and most of the forecast area should be dry by midnight.
A cold front will sweep across Central Indiana today, bringing more chances for showers and thunderstorms as it passes. Dry weather is expected Tonight and Friday as a weak area of high pressure pushes across Indiana. Another stronger cold front is expected to push reach Indiana from the upper midwest on Friday Night.
356 PM CDT THU MAY 12 2016 As of 20z, a cold front was located from near Lufkin, to Marshall, to near El Dorado, and east-northeast into Southeast Arkansas and Northern Mississippi. Vertical ascent from a passing upper trough has resulted in the development of scattered convection along the front from Southern Arkansas and into Mississippi. However, the high instability should be enough to promote a risk for isolated severe storms through the evening hours.
232 PM MDT THU MAY 12 2016 19Z Water vapor imagery indicated weak short wave ridging in place across the area. although RAP analysis of dynamic tropopause indicates a small scale trough entering into eastern Colorado. While I do not think there will be a strong response to trough in the afternoon, have noticed an area of enhanced cumulus clouds along small convergence zone which may be a reflection of approaching trough. cold front will slide south over the area bringing gusty northerly winds and cooler temperatures.
A frontal trough will cross over the waters Fri overnight with a threat for offshore moving scattered showers and isolated lightning storms.
Expect ridging influences sfc/aloft to build enough across the region to support VFR/SKC conditions across entire region with nwly sfc winds of 5-10kts 13/15Z-13/18Z.
339 PM PDT THU MAY 12 2016 An upper-level ridge will persist over northern California through this evening. On Friday expect the ridge to shift to our east as a storm system approaches the region from the west.
Shallow cool air resides across the plains along and east of Interstate 25 and with weak upslope, expect a slight chance of showers in the cooler airmass east of the Laramie Range.
an upper level disturbance and an approaching cold front expected this afternoon. Ahead of the cold front there looks to be better CAPE values and lapse rates but very little wind shear. Will continue with this tempo grouping until it is expected that the cold front moves through the taf sites between the 02z-03z time frame.
A cold front is forecast to approach the region tonight, bringing with it a slight chance for a few showers and possibly a thunderstorm.
337 PM EDT THU MAY 12 2016 High pressure builds offshore through tonight as a cold front approaches from the Ohio Valley.
Mostly clear skies are expected this afternoon and overnight tonight which will allow the overnight lows to be a little cooler than last night ranging near 50. Friday, another cold front will be approaching the region. Feel this cold front will have significantly less moisture to work with since the last front, which passed through Kansas late last night is still moving to the South.
355 PM EDT THU MAY 12 2016 High pressure will remain over the area through Friday. A trough of low pressure will approach Friday evening and cross the area late Friday night. A ridge of high pressure both surface and aloft will bring a mild night tonight followed by another very warm and mostly sunny day on Friday. Our attention then turns to a trough of low pressure approaching from the west.
Showers with isolated thunderstorms will continue to develop over southern Montana ahead of a cold front moving through our area overnight. Expect cloudy skies and a much cooler air mass than today.
145 PM EDT THU MAY 12 2016 A warm front south of the Erie lakeshore will push north later today. Meanwhile a cold front across the mid Mississippi valley will move east across the area tonight.
A better defined area of showers and storms was moving through northwest Alabama along a pre-frontal trough. Dewpoint temps were generally in the mid to upper 60s ahead of a cold front, which was extending southwest from southern Illinois, and through eastern Arkansas. Expect that there will continue to be development of showers and storms along and ahead of the cold front into this mid evening. The RAP and HRRR models are similar in moving the pre-frontal trough and surface cold front through the forecast area this evening, with the boundaries south of the area by around 06z tonight. The short term models are fairly similar involving a large area of high pressure building eastward into the region by 12z Friday.
Slightly more convergence along the theta-e ridge across the western areas may succeed in breaking the cap toward areas from Laredo to Cotulla. Not much in the way of midlevel support from H7-H5 nor divergence further aloft to sustain development, so any showers/storms should remain situated along the theta-e ridge and diminish with the loss of daytime heating. Moisture remains confined in the lowest levels with drier air aloft.
1249 PM CDT THU MAY 12 2016 Closed low over British Columbia and another over Manitoba with a trough extending into the Missouri river valley. There is a ridge from the east coast through the Hudson Bay. Upper low over south central Canada with trough into east Texas will continue to move slowly east with northern plains in northwest flow. Ridge pushing east into western Nebraska with clear skies and good insolation. Highs about 5F degrees warmer than yesterday.
123 PM CDT THU MAY 12 2016 An upper trough moving across the central plains today has pushed a front southward. After it passes east an upper ridge will build in behind bringing warming wx.
a weak cold frontal boundary continues to slide south through the region with northeast winds behind the boundary and drier air filtering in. Dewpoints are generally in the lower 50s behind the front with mid 60s ahead of the boundary. By Friday night as an upper trough moves through the Great Lakes region. a cold front will swing south through the Plains. As scattered showers and thunderstorms increase in coverage along the cold front across Oklahoma.
Upper level trough over eastern ALTA and another over southern BC will merge and move through the forecast area Thu night and Fri. An east-west orientated upper level jet on the south side of both troughs will intensify a bit and carve out a trough over the eastern US by Sun afternoon. ALTA upper low will move over southern Canada Fri with mostly diurnal showers northern zones for Fri. Upper low may bring more diurnal showers for Sat afternoon/evening.
253 PM CDT THU MAY 12 2016 18Z surface data has a cold front running from Michigan into the lower Mississippi Valley. High pressure was over the central Plains while the next storm system was organizing across Montana. Dew points were in the 50s and 60s from the Great Lakes to the lower Mississippi Valley with 30s and 40s across the Plains. Quiet and dry conditions will be seen late this afternoon and tonight as high pressure moves through the Midwest. Convection should begin to develop by early afternoon as the cold front moves into eastern Iowa with fairly rapid upscale growth through the mid and late afternoon hours. Once the cold front passes a location, there should be a fairly quick 5 to 10 degree temperature drop.
with the more concentrated line of convection to our west ahead of the approaching cold front. and should see quite a bit of sunshine along with slightly cooler temps. but look on the low side given expected sunshine for Friday so will bump MAV max temps up a bit.
301 PM PDT THU MAY 12 2016 High pressure will keep skies generally clear and temperatures above normal through Friday.
308 PM EDT THU MAY 12 2016 An approaching upper level disturbance and cold front will bring increasing chances of showers and thunderstorms from mid afternoon through early this evening.
Do have a thin band of precip right along the cold front, just now entereing far western KY. Actual cold front is just west of the Wabash Valley this hour and expected to move across the region by this evening. Friday, expect high pressure briefly to ridge into the region from the Lower Mississippi Valley.
101 PM CDT THU MAY 12 2016 Cold front is slowly advancing through the region this morning. A cold front is making slow progress across central Illinois early this morning, and is currently in the vicinity of the I-55 corridor. Otherwise, it will be cooler and less humid today behind the front, with most locations topping out in the lower 70s. Cooler lows tonight in the upper 40s and lower 50s which area pretty close to normal for mid May. Showers likely Friday evening with scattered thunderstorms, then diminishing from nw to se during overnight Friday night as a northern stream system tracks ESE into the southern Great Lakes Friday night and pulls a cold front se across central IL. Highs Fri in the upper 60s and lower 70s, just a bit cooler than today's expected highs.
205 PM EDT THU MAY 12 2016 A ridge of high pressure will remain over the north country through tonight. A cold front will move slowly east from the eastern Great Lakes on Friday and will bring rain showers to the north country Friday and Friday night.
319 PM EDT THU MAY 12 2016 The latest regional surface analysis shows pre-frontal trough of low pressure situated from western TN through northern Mississippi and the lower gulf coast.
428 PM CDT THU MAY 12 2016 A pair of relatively weak cold fronts will cross the forecast area over the next 72 hours. Otherwise, relatively drier and cooler air is expected to filter in behind the front, especially over northern and eastern zones.
An upper level low will move over the Pacific Northwest over the weekend. High pressure building over B.
A cold front will approach northern OK Friday afternoon then move across the area Friday evening/night.
347 PM CDT THU MAY 12 2016 (Tonight and Friday) A cold front has moved south of West Central Texas this afternoon. The remnants of the aforementioned cold front will be across our southern counties tomorrow. Highs on Friday will be mainly in the low to mid 80s.
213 PM MDT THU MAY 12 2016 An upper level ridge over the West Coast states will shift east over to over Utah by Friday night. Attendant with the ridge axis will be increasing temperatures at the surface and aloft. There is an outside chance of an isolated shower or thunderstorm over the higher terrain Friday afternoon. but subsidence in advance of the ridge should prohibit greater coverage. High temperatures Friday will be 5 to 10 degrees warmer than today.
355 PM CDT THU MAY 12 2016 This morning's cold front has stalled out south of interstate 10 with surface winds across our area starting to swing around to the east while relaxing. Friday evening will see improving rain chances particularly in our northeastern counties as a cold front edges southward. Aloft, this region will fall under a favorable 700mb thermal ribbon and stronger northwesterly flow relative to areas farther southwest closer to a mid-level ridge axis and warmer mid-level temps.
A south to southwest surface wind will persist through this evening ahead of a surface cold front approaching the region from the northwest. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will move into the forecast area ahead of the cold front this evening, mainly affecting areas northwest of I-65.
1204 PM CDT THU MAY 12 2016 /18Z TAFS/ A weak cold front has stalled just south of the Interstate 10 corridor. PoPs were adjusted to match current radar trends, with the highest rain chances across our southeast counties, then decreasing as you head north into the Big Country. A slow moving cold front will push from north to south across West Central Texas today. /issued 402 AM CDT THU MAY 12 2016/ (Today and Tonight) A weak cold front will continue to move slowly south across West Central Texas today, and this boundary will serve as a focus for continued showers and thunderstorms. As the low-level jet, which is currently around 40 knots from the south, weakens over the next several hours, the severe thunderstorm and flash flood threats should also diminish.
136 PM PDT THU MAY 12 2016 Warmer and mostly sunny today, except at and near the beaches where marine layer clouds are unlikely to clear out.
447 PM MDT THU MAY 12 2016 An upper level ridge over the West Coast states will shift east over to over Utah by Friday night. Attendant with the ridge axis will be increasing temperatures at the surface and aloft. There is an outside chance of an isolated shower or thunderstorm over the higher terrain Friday afternoon. but subsidence in advance of the ridge should prohibit greater coverage. High temperatures Friday will be 5 to 10 degrees warmer than today.
217 PM CDT THU MAY 12 2016 Clouds quickly cleared behind a surface front and upper level wave earlier today and high pressure will continue to build into the area during the rest of today and tonight. Expect a clear sky tonight with cool high pressure building into the area. A cold front will race southeastward into around central MO by 00z.
154 PM MST THU MAY 12 2016 High pressure will bring dry conditions and increasing temperatures into Friday.
201 PM MDT THU MAY 12 2016 19Z Water vapor imagery indicated weak short wave ridging in place across the area. although RAP analysis of dynamic tropopause indicates a small scale trough entering into eastern Colorado. While I do not think there will be a strong response to trough in the afternoon, have noticed an area of enhanced cumulus clouds along small convergence zone which may be a reflection of approaching trough. cold front will slide south over the area bringing gusty northerly winds and cooler temperatures.
A cold front will move east into Ohio this evening putting an end to the showers and thunderstorms. the respite will be brief as another cold front will bring widespread showers and isolated thunderstorms to the area Friday night. Canadian high pressure behind the cold front will usher in a dry but unseasonably cool remainder of the weekend. Storms should continue to pop up ahead of an east central Illinois cold front.
540 PM EDT THU MAY 12 2016 High pressure builds offshore through tonight as a cold front approaches from the Ohio Valley.
1225 PM CDT THU MAY 12 2016 The surface trof will be nearly all the way through the CWFA by 12Z. The drier air is lagging somewhat behind the wind shift and surface trof. Cold air advection along with abundant cloud cover should keep temperatures from warming much higher than the low to mid 70s. Carney High pressure over the eastern Plains at 00Z Friday will move quickly southeast into Arkansas by Friday morning. The only limiting factor will be boundary layer moisture since the high pressure system to our south will be blocking strong low level moisture transport. Even with pooling ahead of the front we might not see dewpoints higher than the low to mid 50s. The high pressure system that builds in behind Friday's cold front will be a truly cold airmass for mid May.
A dome of high pressure will continue to slide eastward tonight shifting winds to the southwest by this evening. This will help push a cold front through the area tomorrow afternoon. Mostly clear skies are expected tomorrow with the exception of along the cold front tomorrow afternoon where increase cloudiness will be possible. As for temperatures, lows tonight look to generally be in the lower 50s with the exception of west central Kansas where upper 40s may be reached. A brief warming trend will continue Friday as a low level southwesterly flow enhances warm air advection into southwest and central Kansas ahead of an advancing cold front. Should see highs well up into the 70s(F) across west central Kansas to the lower to mid 80s(F) in south central Kansas where the front isn't expected to push through until late afternoon.
/ISSUED / Latest surface analysis shows the cold front situated over east central arkansas and pushing off to the east. A cold front will slowly move through AR today and ahead of it showers and thunderstorms will be seen. Winds will be SE to SW at 5 to 15 mph ahead of the cold front, then switch to the W to NW at 5 to 15 mph. The cold front will drop SE through the CWA through this afternoon and early evening. but a new cold front will drop south into the state Fri night.
Cooler with clouds a chance of showers or thunderstorms northern mountains over the weekend.
135 PM EDT THU MAY 12 2016 High pressure will give the region another mostly sunny day along with mild temperatures. A cold front will pass through the area on Friday bringing showers and the beginning of a much cooler period.
328 PM CDT THU MAY 12 2016 H5 analysis from this morning has a trough of low pressure extending south of a closed low over Manitoba. This trough extended south to the Texas and Oklahoma border. West of the trough. A closed low was present over British Columbia with a ridge extending from the Mid Atlantic north into Quebec. At the surface, high pressure was located across the srn plains and was the dominant feature across the central CONUS today. High pressure will remain over the region through the rest of the afternoon and into early evening. A low pressure system moving across South Dakota late tonight will allow clouds to overspread the region late tonight. For Friday, the low pressure system tracking across South Dakota will continue to drift eastward.
a drier and slightly cooler airmass will move in behind the front. it will be noticeably cooler.
There are only a few isolated storms along the boundary with most of the activity ahead of a potent short wave trough over the Ohio River valley.
516 PM EDT THU MAY 12 2016 An approaching cold front will cross the forecast area Friday morning.
Otherwise, SHRA/TSRA will develop over the lower Pecos Valley into the Edwards Plateau later this evening and then gradually form into a line by Midnight and then move across the remainder of South Central Texas overnight into Wednesday morning to midday. Currently, we are beginning to see the low clouds erode across the Rio Grande plains. For the early evening hours, the Pacific cold front will overtake the dryline across west central Texas, including the Edwards Plateau.
536 PM MDT Tue Mar 28 2017 Models in fairly good consensus with the upper low taking the more southern track across central NM. The Palmer Divide and Raton Ridge should also see some appreciable amounts of snow with amounts in the 5 to 12 inch range. will still need to monitor the lower elevations of the newer burn scars until snow levels drop through this evening. Precipitation will hang on longer down along the Raton and eastern plains as the upper low pulls eastward through the TX Panhandle into NW OK and southern KS.
This should lead to cooler temperatures tonight, especially over our western zones, though tempered by increasing high clouds. Temperatures will be warmer with highs reaching the 60s most locations.
Bigelbach PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS: Upper trof/front moving across eastern Montana this afternoon. Flatter westerly flow followed behind the front with warmer and drier conditions. Ebert A new trough will dig into the western U.
725 PM EDT Tue Mar 28 2017 A cold front will move through the North Country overnight with a chance of rain or snow showers. There will be a slight chance for rain and snow showers on Wednesday, mainly over the high elevations of the Adirondacks and Green Mountains.
During the day Wednesday as the upper low shifts to the East across the Plains and showers and thunderstorms become more widespread, strong to severe storms area expected as moisture, instability and lift are enhanced.
This will cause periods of mountain obscuration and snow showers along the Continental Divide and the higher terrain farther east in Central and Southwest MT, especially after 12Z/Wed.
Current WV and VIS imagery show and upper low digging into the Southern Rockies over New Mexico. As this low pulls out of the region it will undergo further cyclogenesis over the Southern Plains into the Central Plains overnight tonight. With cloud cover only increasing, expect that temps only dip into the low to mid 40s over the area. As broad scale lift and the warm front approach from the south, expect showers and rain to lift into the area from the southwest. From here, the upper low will slowly pin-wheel through the area into the Mid and Southern MS Valley regions with rain wrapping around behind the low itself creating a band of low to mid level frontogenetical response in the deformation zone.