Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
The next several days will see several rounds of showers and thunderstorms as a broad upper level trough remains nearly stationary over the northern tier states. An upper level trough quickly enters from the west. As this trough moves east today clouds will increase. Don/t expect any issues due to the trough until after 00Z when ceilings and visibilities could become MVFR. This week it looks like an upper level trough will hang across middle TN.
Forecast remains on track with PWATS still close to 2 inches area-wide with modest mid level lapse rates with 500MB temps around -6C, and the Hi-Res models still suggesting most of the scattered showers and storms will develop during the mid-late afternoon hours as ridge axis lifts northward and weak Atlc/Gulf Coast sea breezes push inland. Typical early August heat with highs in the lower 90s and heat indices in the 100-105 range.
Morning sounding from the Cape shows much drier air has built into the region between 850-700 mbs and will combine with the ridge aloft to suppress shower and thunderstorm development today. Highs in the low 90s along the coast to mid 90s over the interior will combine with dewpoints in the 70s to produce heat index values around 100-105. Drier air and ridge aloft, should suppress convective development for much of the area today.
A weak cold front will push into West Central Texas, from the north, this evening. As a weak cold front approaches our northern counties today, showers and thunderstorms may develop across mainly our northern Big Country counties.
High pressure aloft will remain over the region this week, and warm weather will continue across Western Washington. The upper level ridge offshore has brought weak northerly flow aloft over Washington, and this allowed the smoke from British Columbia fires to drift south overnight.
Weak upper trough will approach the area today and have handled convection with this feature with VCSH/VCTS remarks for now. A weak upper trough will move out of the Big Bend region into South Central and South Texas today. Low chances for showers and thunderstorms will continue Sunday night into Monday as weak trough moves to the east across the area.
420 AM PDT Sun Aug 6 2017 Wildfire smoke from fires in British Columbia and Montana trapped under an area of high pressure will persist over Eastern Washington and North Idaho, otherwise dry conditions will linger through much of the upcoming week. The region remains in northwest flow and a Rex Block, with a ridge near the Pacific Northwest coast and low pressure over northern California.
1013 AM EDT Sun Aug 6 2017 Atlantic high pressure will persist through much of the week.
1024 AM EDT Sun Aug 6 2017 High pressure shift east from the area through today. A warm front will lift into the area tonight with low pressure moving east across the area Monday.
583 DM upper low centered about 125 NM SW of KUKI this morning with some ACCAS rotating across this feature across Interior NorCal. Marine layer has deepened to around 2000 ft in response to the low approaching. The low is forecast to slowly track inland today.
945 AM EDT Sun Aug 6 2017 An area of low pressure will track northeast across the Ohio Valley Monday.
715 AM CDT Sun Aug 6 2017 Low pressure over the southeast Plains will move across southern Missouri today. Low level moisture convergence will continue over the area ahead of the low today.
/ISSUED 609 AM CDT Sun Aug 6 2017/ Warmer across the area this morning with higher dewpoints. Drier air in the model soundings showing up aloft although in the lowest levels dewpoints are higher. Cold front stalls over NTx and may see some storms move off the boundary and move southeastward before waning.
Sustained wind speeds will be under 12kt outside of thunderstorms, though a shift to the E/NE is expected at all terminals except FST overnight as a cold front begins to move into the area. /issued 257 AM CDT Sun Aug 6 2017/ Today, in advance of a cold front surface based destabilization will result in LI's to around -5 to -6 across the PB with CAPES around 1500 J/KG. NW flow is weak and an identifiable shrtwv trof is lacking. Wed-Sat will be down days wrt convective potential as upper ridging increases and high temps warm back to above normal Thur-Sat.
953 AM EDT Sun Aug 6 2017 Precipitation chances will increase through today into Monday as a low pressure system moves east across the region. This will also likely help keep temperatures down somewhat with highs ranging from the lower 70s across the northwest to the mid to upper 70s in the southeast. For tonight, the low will lift east/northeast through the mid Ohio valley with a warm frontal boundary lifting as far north as midway through the forecast area, and is expected to become the focus of ample rainfall. Potent low pressure carried by a westerly flow aloft will be moving across Ohio on Monday. Rain chances diminish by Monday afternoon as the low tracks rather quickly east toward the Atlantic Coast.
Should be a repeat tomorrow except a little warmer. Any cells will stay over the higher terrain and not produce significant moisture.
828 PM PDT Mon May 29 2017 A trough of low pressure aloft will deepen across California mid week, before gradually shifting east of the region late in the week. A weak upper level trough of low pressure combined with strengthening onshore flow and an eddy circulation will help to deepen the marine layer to around 2000 feet by tomorrow morning. High temperatures on Tuesday are expected to be slightly cooler across most areas. As the trough starts to move east on Tuesday, another broader trough circulation will move in.
Moderate north to northwest surface and upper level flow continues around a persistent upper level low over the northern Great Lakes region into southern Canada. Late tonight into early Tuesday another lobe of vorticity rotating around the upper low could push cloud shield back farther west toward Minot and Bismarck with considerable clouds for at least a portion of Tuesday morning before clearing out in the afternoon. Clear skies, light winds, a cool start to the evening and dewpoints in the 30s support a good setup for radiational cooling and the lower edge of the 12 UTC forecast guidance envelope across the west and far south central. Widespread lows in the lower to mid 30s are expected, if not a bit cooler, with widespread frost.
837 PM EDT Mon May 29 2017 An unsettled weather pattern will continue through the week as a series of cold fronts affect the region. As the upper trough and associated sfc front progress eastward tonight, more of this light convection may develop, so have eliminate the evening break and have maintained at least isolated pops through the night for most of the area.
/issued 339 PM CDT Mon May 29 2017/ A deep, quasi-stationary trough continues to spin over the northern Great Lakes this afternoon. Several weak impulses are noted on the periphery of this cyclone on the water vapor loop, but winds aloft across the Mid-South are relatively light. A broad area of moist southwesterly flow in the upper-troposphere is streaming across the Lower Mississippi Valley, helping to maintain the cirrus overhead.
A cooler night is expected tonight with lows generally in the middle 40s to lower 50s.
A few light showers and virga this evening (ending before sunset) over the West Central and Boise Mountains will give way to mostly clear skies tonight ahead of Tuesday's incoming upper level trough.
A BEAUTIFUL Memorial Day is ongoing across the entire area! As of 19Z, a pesky upper low continues to spin across southern Ontario. Given the high LCL heights and well mixed BL (Inverted V soundings), evaporative cooling may contribute to isolated damaging wind gusts. Tuesday night with northwest flow aloft and high pressure sliding through the northern plains return flow becomes established across portions of southern KS. Convergence associated with the low level jet and isentropic lift on the 305 K surface should support showers and scattered storms given elevated instability on the order of a few hundred j/kg.
An upper level low is currently located across the Great Lakes region with a front stretching across the region from central Kansas across central Missouri this afternoon. Highs have warmed into the lower 80s this afternoon.
East Central Florida Forecast Discussion 913 PM EDT Mon May 29 2017 The upper ridge over the Atlc east of FL continues to relocate further away from the area and moisture levels are creeping upward. Axis of high pressure ridge will remain south of the waters.
More numerous showers and storms over the High Plains will continue to move east through the evening.
1027 PM EDT Mon May 29 2017 Ridging over the region will weaken today as a frontal boundary slowly pushes into the area.
A coastal trough offshore has been the focus of showers and thunderstorms over the Gulf this evening, and this is expected to gradually shift eastward tonight. Further offshore, based on latest obs from buoys & rigs it looks like a weak coastal trof has set up 20-40nm offshore. As the coastal trof washes out on Wed, guidance suggests another surge of deeper Gulf moisture moves up the coast and back inland.
648 PM CDT Mon May 29 2017 Moderate north to northwest surface and upper level flow continues around a persistent upper level low over the northern Great Lakes region into southern Canada. Late tonight into early Tuesday another lobe of vorticity rotating around the upper low could push cloud shield back farther west toward Minot and Bismarck with considerable clouds for at least a portion of Tuesday morning before clearing out in the afternoon. Clear skies, light winds, a cool start to the evening and dewpoints in the 30s support a good setup for radiational cooling and the lower edge of the 12 UTC forecast guidance envelope across the west and far south central. Widespread lows in the lower to mid 30s are expected, if not a bit cooler, with widespread frost.
A sct cu field should linger over portions of E TX/N LA this evening and much of the overnight hours, along and S of the H925 trough that will become stationary by 06Z near/just N of a TYR/GGG, to along the AR/LA line. , underneath a ridge over the NW U.
454 PM PDT Mon May 29 2017 An upper-level trough will persist over the region through most of the week along with cool conditions and night through morning low clouds and fog.
1143 PM CDT Mon May 29 2017 Area remains on southwest edge of broad cyclonic flow associated with closed low over Ontario this afternoon.
Still seeing sct cu lingering across portions of E TX/N LA along the H850 trough axis, with even isolated -SHRA having redeveloped recently E of MLU. However, cigs should linger across MLU and LFK near the H850 trough, with isolated convection possible over these areas.
627 PM CDT Mon May 29 2017 Northwest flow prevailing this afternoon after a weak cold front moved through the region earlier this morning. Off to our northwest, a ridge of high pressure stretching from the northern High Plains will continue to extend southeast into the lower Missouri Vally overnight, yielding dry conditions and mostly clear skies through the evening and early overnight hours.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 62 81 62 83 / 20 30 20 40 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 61 79 60 81 / 20 30 20 40 Oak Ridge, TN 60 81 59 81 / 10 30 20 40 Tri Cities Airport, TN 59 78 57 78 / 10 30 20 40.
The low level SW flow out of the GOMEX will support some patchy fog across inland NE FL along the I-75 corridor towards morning. Hi pressure ridge at the surface and aloft over the FL peninsula continues to get pushed SE into the Atlc as trough over the SE U. This along with cooler mid level temps around 500mb falling to -10C or less will increase instability and allow for both sea breezes to become more active as they move inland in the weak W/SW steering flow. Still expecting mainly VFR conds tonight with a few high clouds at times although the low level SW flow still supports some possible MVFR Fog towards morning at KGNV/KVQQ as higher moisture levels move out of the GOMEX and across inland NE FL.
A weak upper trough will bring a chance of showers and possibly some thunderstorms to Western Washington on Tuesday. Dry and somewhat warmer weather may arrive by the weekend. The upper level ridge that brought warm, dry and stable weather to the region will push east on Tuesday. Tuesday will be cooler with the increase in low level stratus clouds - highs mainly in the 60s. An upper level short wave trough will swing N/NE through W WA in the afternoon which may trigger a few thunderstorms. An upper level low will spin off central/southern B.
1018 PM MDT Mon May 29 2017 19z surface analysis had low over central ON with upper low spinning just north of Lake Superior. Tonight, upper low moves northeast as upper ridge builds over the Rockies. Tuesday, upper ridge and subsidence bring a pleasant day to the area with temperatures near guidance.
Thus, expect the highest POP's to be oriented similar to where they are now with the highest chance across acadiana and activity gradually becoming more isolated across southwest Louisiana and southeast Texas. Also raised overnight lows by a few degrees as temperatures thus far have been running several degrees warmer than previously forecast.
704 PM CDT Mon May 29 2017 Closed upper low that has affected northern plains for the last couple of days has moved east into western Great Lakes. The upper low has pushed a cold front into the northern Gulf and northeastward to Pennsylvania. Upper ridge over the Western CONUS placing northern plains in fast Northwest flow. Have backed off cooler temperatures over the northwest. Upper ridge and warmer air aloft pushes east on Tuesday.
1143 PM CDT Mon May 29 2017 Closed upper low that has affected northern plains for the last couple of days has moved east into western Great Lakes. The upper low has pushed a cold front into the northern Gulf and northeastward to Pennsylvania. Upper ridge over the Western CONUS placing northern plains in fast Northwest flow. Have backed off cooler temperatures over the northwest. Upper ridge and warmer air aloft pushes east on Tuesday.
506 PM MDT Mon May 29 2017 19z surface analysis had low over central ON with upper low spinning just north of Lake Superior. Tonight, upper low moves northeast as upper ridge builds over the Rockies. Tuesday, upper ridge and subsidence bring a pleasant day to the area with temperatures near guidance.
Enhanced convergence along weak cold front across northeast OK has allowed for a few showers and thunderstorms to develop late this afternoon. /Issued 326 PM CDT Mon May 29 2017/ Weak cold front has pushed into NE OK with an axis of agitated CU marking the the boundary.
WV/IR imagery reveals increasing moisture out of the western Gulf with some weakening convection off the northeastern coast of Cuba, and high clouds pushing into the Lower and Middle Keys. Temperatures are in the low to mid 80s across the island chain. Dew points are in the low to mid 70s.
405 PM PDT Mon May 29 2017 High pressure will give way to a series of weak low pressure systems moving through the region during the next couple of days.
Look for temperatures to fall into the low 60s by morning. As a weak cold front moves into mid state around 30/12Z, enough moisture may pool across cntrl and srn portions of mid state allowing for cu and ac development BNA 30/12Z-30/24Z.
For 06z Aviation discussion below Latest analysis indicates the large low pressure system in control of our weather is centered over western Ontario. The low will slowly lift northeast through the period, but tomorrow will see similarly cool temperatures to today.
Look for temperatures to fall into the low 60s by morning. A weak cold front moves into mid state around 30/12Z, enough moisture may pool across cntrl and srn portions of mid state allowing for cu and ac development BNA 30/12Z-31/06Z.
1029 PM EDT Mon May 29 2017 High pressure will persist offshore through tonight. A weak cold front will gradually move into the area midweek. Atlantic high pressure will extend west over the region late week into the upcoming weekend. At the surface, a weak cold front will be just to our north and slowly trending southward.
The Medford CWA is under southwest flow aloft between a long wave ridge over the intermountain states and a trough offshore between 140W and 150W. A short wave ejected from an offshore long wave trough and an associated cold front will move through the area Tuesday. This will bring in much cooler air and a slight chance to chance of showers and thunderstorms. Tuesday highs will be quite a bit cooler that the Monday highs over the Oregon west side.
503 PM MDT Mon May 29 2017 Generally dry and warm on this Memorial Day as high pressure remains overhead with some spotty showers popping up over the northern mountains. The next Pacific trough will begin to dig inland Tuesday evening which will shift the ridge of high pressure east and allow additional moisture to stream into the region.
647 PM CDT Mon May 29 2017 Area remains on southwest edge of broad cyclonic flow associated with closed low over Ontario this afternoon.
925 PM EDT Mon May 29 2017 Upper level low pressure will drift east across the north side of the Great Lakes this week.
908 PM EDT Mon May 29 2017 High pressure will persist offshore through tonight. A weak cold front will gradually move into the area midweek. Atlantic high pressure will extend west over the region late week into the upcoming weekend. At the surface, a weak cold front will be just to our north and slowly trending southward.
Proton Previous Discussion: Upper ridge extending from the Canadian Rockies into the Great Basin will slowly move east over the next few days. Canadian high pressure dropping across the northern plains will bring a dry and more stable airmass into the region tonight and Tuesday. With clear skies and light winds, along with dry airmass, could see temperatures drop to near freezing in some locations tonight, particularly the northeast corner of the state. Sunny weather expected on Tuesday with winds beginning to turn toward the east as the high moves into the Dakotas. An amplified ridge, extending north through the Northwest Territories into the Arctic Ocean, will control conditions for the next several days.
1136 PM EDT Tue Oct 3 2017 Aviation section updated The forecast period will be much more active than the last few weeks as a series of low pressure systems passes through the forecast area over the next seven days. The first is progged to start affecting central Indiana this evening with its associated cold front eventually stalling over the Lower Midwest through the end of the week.
Tide gauges inside Lakes Pontchartrain and Maurepas have continued to show a mostly steady rise with little response to the low tide cycles over the last couple days. The drying and warming of the mid and upper levels of the atmosphere have also raised freezing levels from 15. Winds are also backing with height from an easterly flow in the low levels to the northerly flow aloft indicating the presence of a ridge of high pressure over the area. Additionally, the drying and warming occurring since this morning show that the ridge is strengthening over the area.
As the upper & surface ridging extending from our area up into the mid-Atlantic states wedges in from the east-northeast overnight, expect drier air to filter in. This will also result in slightly cooler lows, from west to east falling into the upper 50s to low 60s. Might be slightly warmer in some areas due to some pressure gradient & light winds overnight, but we should cool off nicely. Only made some small tweaks overnight to hourly temperatures & maybe a touch warmer in the east due to some light winds around. /DC/ Prior discussion below: Tonight and Wednesday: High pressure at the surface and aloft will maintain quiet conditions across the forecast area tonight through Wednesday afternoon.
1021 PM EDT Tue Oct 3 2017 High pressure will control the weather through the end of the week with a warming trend taking place. Just about as quiet as it gets overnight with high pressure remaining in control.
1147 PM CDT Tue Oct 3 2017 The cold front continues to make slow progress toward central IL from the NW. The coverage of those showers may be focused from SW to NE across our central counties, with NW and SE areas remaining relatively dry until the cold front nears our NW counties later tonight. Then a lull in the rainfall threat is likely until much later tonight when a cold front starts to push into the area.
The forecast period will be much more active than the last few weeks as a series of low pressure systems passes through the forecast area over the next seven days. The first is progged to start affecting central Indiana this evening with its associated cold front eventually stalling over the Lower Midwest through the end of the week.
High pressure moves into north-central Montana tonight through Wednesday and will bring lighter winds and the potential fog development, especially where there is a deep snowpack. High pressure building in tonight will allow generally light winds beneath mostly clear skies. On Wednesday, a mid-level warm front will move north, bringing another chance of rain/snow to Southwest Montana and southern sections of Central Montana with light accumulations possible.
Surface analysis across the region features the dome of high pressure continuing to be anchored over the Appalachian Range and thus keeping eastern Kentucky under mostly clear skies, above normal temps, and relatively light winds. Otherwise, a warm, dry, and relatively cloud free forecast is on tap under a stubborn ridge of high pressure. The first couple of days will still be quiet as a weakening mid/upper level ridge persists over the southeast CONUS.
/issued 343 PM CDT Tue Oct 3 2017/ The Hub City is currently situated between an upper level closed off low to the west and an upper level high pressure system to the east. This afternoon a cold front (currently just north of the area) will slowly drop south introducing a risk of precipitation for much of the area this evening. As the front drops south the upper high to our east will begin to nose westward towards while the upper level low simultaneously moves northeastward. Tomorrow PWs increase further as moisture continues to be wrapped around the upper high amd streamed over the area.
1130 PM CDT Tue Oct 3 2017 Expecting more showers and storms to pop up going into late this afternoon/evening as the cold front pushes into the area. Latest CAMs (Convection Allowing Models) showing the cold front and associated showers/storms pushing southeast out of the area by 10 pm or so. Clearing expected then from the northwest to southeast after midnight as the front clears the area and high pressure builds in from the Northern Plains. A cooler/drier/mostly sunny day on tap for Wednesday as that area of high pressure drifts overhead.
In addition, the center of an upper ridge will drift southwest directly over the ArkLaTex, which should help to move the rain farther west out of the area. The upper-level ridge will be the dominant feature through the remainder of the work-week. Mid-level heights are forecast to remain in the 595-597dam range through late week with the center of the mid-level anticyclone shifting south over east TX. The upper-level ridge will become elongated from west to east late in the week as a strong trough moves east across the Rockies. As this trough moves into the Great Plains, the ridge will break down, retreating rapidly southwest toward the Baja Peninsula.
but otherwise the low pressure system is moving ENE out of the region, with high pressure settling in over central Montana. With the precip we've received and the high pressure moving into the area. fransen Previous Discussion: A deep upper trough over the western states that has been responsible for the winter weather of late will begin to weaken and split with one piece breaking off and moving toward the Great Lakes tonight. In the meantime, the vertically stacked low pressure was over western North Dakota this afternoon. The high center will move across the northern Plains Wednesday.
Under mostly cloudy skies with a fresh to strong easterly breeze in place, temperatures along the island chain are in the lower 80s.