Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Dry and unseasonably cool temperatures will continue across the region today before high pressure results in a warming trend that brings seasonal temperatures back to the area by mid week. The only fly-in-the-ointment at this point is a weak trough late in the week which could lower temperatures slightly.
A cold front is now entering northwestern portions of middle Tennesse. Favorable deformation zone precip will reside to the north of the upper low. As the colder air moves in freezing levels will fall and reach snowfall support levels in the mid to late afternoon across our western counties. The track and strength of the closed upper low will be key.
Chilly temps within low level thermal trough will persist into Mon. Deeper troughing aloft centered through the lakes looks to steer bulk of this sys south and east of the area yet snow showers remain likely inland ne half with modest lake accums expected far northwest Wed night-Thu night. A low pressure system and accompanying baroclinic zone slowly slide east away from the area and this continues to allow cold air to come into the area.
The primary lead impulse that produced the widespread precipitation across the area yesterday is exiting the area this morning as the main cold front continues to sag to the southeast. Rapid drying aloft will begin later this morning, although low level moisture will remain trapped beneath a midlevel inversion at least until the elongated upper trough axis finally passes through the area late today into this evening. Based on the presence of this low level moisture, some lingering low level upward motion, steep low level lapse rates beneath the inversion, and current radar trends, will carry a chance for flurries or sprinkles into the morning hours across the area before ending it by late morning. The lingering cloud may keep temps a bit warmer tonight than previously forecast, and the blend appears to be handling this well.
VFR conditions are expected through the next 24 hours courtesy of the passage of a cold front. Strong winds today will rapidly diminish around sunset and especially overnight tonight as high pressure settles within the region. /issued 246 AM CST Sun Jan 2 2022/ SHORT TERM (Now through Monday): Surface observations and satellite imagery indicate that a cold front is about to complete its transition through the CRP CWFA and should be barreling through the BRO CWFA shortly. Tonight, calming winds and the influx of cold air in the wake of the front will allow for temperatures to fall to freezing or a few degrees below.
722 AM EST Sun Jan 2 2022 Deep ridging across the area slides east today with a warm and generally dry airmass. A cold front approaching from the western Gulf of Mexico is helping to tighten the pressure gradient. But the biggest concern will be increasing winds as high pressure departs and a cold front moves in. These conditions continue for most of Mon as high pressure builds in but begin to diminish Tue as the high pressure tracks east.
Highs will range from the low teens in southwest Iowa to near 30 near Albion and Niobrara, NE. WAA should drive 850 hPa temps some 15 degrees (C) warmer by Monday morning and surface temps will improve dramatically, especially in northeast Nebraska where little to no snow is noted.
530 AM EST Sun Jan 2 2022 Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb trough over the southern Rockies and northern plains this morning. Low temps Monday night are also expected to be warmer, with the single digits seen across most of the area and teens seen near the Great Lakes.
Today through Monday night Main upper trough exits the Panhandles this morning with drier northwesterly upper flow today allowing for generally clear skies through Monday night.
An upper level ridge builds over the region, keeping things stable and dry over the CWA.
Dry and stable high pressure will begin to move off to the east later today.
(Today) Scattered snow flurries continue early this morning as the mid level trough axis slides overhead. Highs aren't expected to make it above freezing for most locations this afternoon.
Said WAA will also allow for warmer highs tomorrow, generally topping out in the 20s, so around normal for early January. Low temps Monday night are also expected to be warmer, with the single digits seen across most of the area and teens seen near the Great Lakes.
1036 AM EST Sun Jan 2 2022 Satellite imagery highlights a polar air mass spilling to the south along the Texas Coast, marking the southern extent of a cold front straddling the Gulf Coast. Southeast to south winds average 15 to 19 knots along the Reef this morning, depicting the persistence of the gradient between the high over the western North Atlantic and the front over the Gulf. Moderate to fresh southeast to south breezes will veer to the southwest and slacken considerably later this afternoon and evening as a cold front moves across the Gulf of Mexico.
An appreciable warmup is expected tomorrow as mid-level heights rise, southerly winds return, and a low-level thermal ridge expands to the east.
Some increase in cirrus from west to east during the day as warm advection begins to take hold as high pressure moves southeast of our area. Coldest temps in this type of pattern will likely be in the Minnesota portion of the northern RRV from Crookston to Hallock as they will the last to see any of the warmer temps. Not nearly as cold tonight as 925-850 mb layer temps warm and warmer air makes it to the sfc. While 850 mb temps cool back down after the trough passage Monday, sfc temps will not be impacted and look for highs in most areas into the teens.
Closed upper low expected to slide just to our south tonight still looking to give the mid-state a shot of winter pcpn later today into the overnight hours.
148 PM CST Sun Jan 2 2022 Westerly sfc winds tonight and a building upper ridge will bring in some warmer air starting tonight and continuing into Monday. Will start out with low pressure developing over far eastern South Dakota. As this low strengthens and moves east across southern Minnesota, the gradient intensifies and cold advection kicks in. An inverted trough on the back side of the system, with low level frontogenesis, will help generate some light snow, though generally there isn't much lift despite a deep dendritic growth zone.
305 PM EST Sun Jan 2 2022 Temperatures slowly fell through a good part of the day, but have since stabilized/risen with some sunshine and with the low level cold advection being exhausted.
The trough axis is lagging well behind the surface front, leading to the prolonged low level cloud coverage under a midlevel inversion. Once the trough axis passes through the area tonight, skies will finally become mostly clear for tomorrow and beyond. At the surface, high pressure and subsidence passing over the area tomorrow and tomorrow night will further support dry and calm weather. This will allow for lows to be closer to normal, in the low to mid 20s.
Forecast Summary: Turning much warmer early in the week.
911 AM PST Sun Jan 2 2022 Drier air and mostly clear skies for the next couple of nights will result in areas of frost and pockets of freezing temperatures in the valleys and deserts.
349 PM EST Sun Jan 2 2022 Lingering snow showers tonight will dissipate as high pressure begins to build into the area for the early part of the week.
138 PM EST Sun Jan 2 2022 Mainly dry conditions expected before the next area of low pressure approaches midweek. Some patchy light precipitation will be possible this afternoon behind the cold front which crossed early this morning, however, dry conditions are largely expected the remainder of the day.
Temperatures will continue to fall through the day today as the deep upper-level trough moves into the area. An intense, deepening upper-trough will pivot eastward across the Deep South this evening and into the overnight hours, bringing a shot of bitter cold air into the region. This will coincide with a deep saturation of the low to mid level profile per model soundings which will extend well into the dendritic growth zone (-10C to -20C). With surface temperatures falling rapidly into the lower 30s to mid/upper 20s over the course of the evening hours, this will support a quick transition to snow across the Tennessee Valley by 00z.
The low temperature forecast is tricky due to upstream middle and high clouds over North Dakota.
Lows tonight will be cold again with parts of the Tucson metro possibly seeing freezing temperatures again for an hour or two tonight.
(This afternoon through Monday night) Upper trough that passed over the region last night moving off to the east today as a ridge builds in from the west. Tatum was the lowest at 4 degrees but much of the region fell into the teens. Daytime temps have warmed quickly in the dry air with all observations climbing above freezing as of 19z and many of them into the 40s. this will help moderate the low temps tonight.
1030 AM EST Sun Jan 2 2022 Increasing SSW/SW winds today ahead of an approaching cold front, which is expected to pass through east central Florida later tonight. An approaching cold front past nightfall will destabilize our lcl airmass with a developing chance of showers late tonight initially north and west of I-4, spreading south overnight to the Space Coast. Initially sct rain chances become limited to isolated in coverage the remainder of tonight across southern zones as a fast moving cold front makes its way across the region into early Monday. Then, a cold front is expected to pass through the area tonight, reaching KLEE by around 6Z or so, before progressing southward through the overnight hours. Deteriorating boating conditions into tonight, as SW winds 15 to 20kts this afternoon increase to up to 25kts tonight behind a cold front passage.
Cold temperatures and drier conditions will continue though Monday as High pressure remains over the area.
/Tonight through Monday Night/ Vigorous upper level trough axis currently extending from NE OK into NE TX and will continue to make quick progress through our region overnight. Not quite going that cold given that we should still keep a little wind and mixing overnight but we should definitely lose the low level cloud cover this evening which will allow overnight lows to range from the middle teens across our far northwest zones to near 20 and middle 20s elsewhere. Did undercut mins slightly for Monday Night with low temperatures in the 20s once again but some 4 to 8 degrees warmer than forecast low temperatures tonight.
1027 AM PST Sun Jan 2 2022 Locally gusty south winds will bring the potential for blowing and drifting snow in parts of southeast Washington and the lower Idaho Panhandle.
341 PM EST Sun Jan 2 2022 Turning much colder tonight with lows from around zero degrees in portions of the southern Adirondacks to the lower 20s in the mid-Hudson Valley into northwestern Connecticut. Colder air will continue to filter into the region in the wake of a front through the night with temperatures bottoming out around zero degrees in portions of the southern Adirondacks to the lower 20s in the mid-Hudson Valley into northwestern Connecticut. Monday will be another cold night with lows in the single digits to mid teens with high pressure building in at the surface with some weak ridging aloft.
1015 AM CST Sun Jan 2 2022 Warm front starting to bring improving temperatures for the western half of the state, while slow to move into the eastern half of the state. Warmer air was already, thankfully, pushing in to the southwest part of the forecast area with temperatures in parts of the southwest up 10 degrees from their overnight lows. A warm front will be crossing the western forecast area today. The limiting factor is that the wind will not be there to mix that warmer air down over the deep snow cover. The H5 ridge moves over for tonight and Monday, though it is fairly flat, so mid and high clouds will result in something less than a sunny / clear sky. With the warm front still over the area it is another not so cold day, especially southwest.
145 PM CST Sun Jan 2 2022 Upper level flow over the forecast area to back from northwest this afternoon to nearly zonal Monday afternoon as low-amplitude ridging moves overhead with light west surface winds this afternoon and tonight backing to southwest and increasing mostly to 15 to 20 mph range Monday afternoon. Meanwhile, the snow field across the forecast area has already been shrinking underneath full sun despite temperatures still at or just below the freezing mark. Overall, the cooler side of MOS guidance is preferred. Rapidly increasing heights and thicknesses combined with increasing southwest winds under full sun suggest high temperatures about 12 degrees warmer than this afternoon's.
Subsidence behind the passing trough in Texas and a 1033 mb high has led to widespread sunshine across southwest Kansas. Tonight as the high continues to move to the northeast the lower level flow will be out of the southwest both at the surface and 850 mb levels. With this combination low temperatures will certainly be warmer than Sunday morning with a mix of single digit to teens.
Temperatures are in the lower 80s with dewpoints near 70. The mean layer ridge formerly camped out across the Gulf of Mexico is deformed and crashing east into the western North Atlantic. Not to be overlooked, surface observations and satellite imagery place the next cold front over the Gulf of Mexico. The cold front over the Gulf of Mexico will race towards the Keys tonight. Most island communities will stay in the lower 70s, but a few interior locations will plummet into the mid to upper 60s.
Although winds will be shifting to the south on Monday, no real significant moisture increase will lead to temps near freezing again Monday night for some areas (Hill Country and typical cold spots), 30s elsewhere.
Any snow remaining from yesterday will be gone by tonight or tomorrow with temperatures increasing to above freezing across the entire forecast area. So far this afternoon, temperatures for a majority of the area have warmed to near or above freezing. The warming temperatures today are aided by mid level high pressure building in across the southwest US. The upper level ridge is aiding in advecting warmer air at H850 across the Panhandles. This trend will continue into tomorrow and will be more prevalent, with even warmer temperatures expected on Monday. With the trough moving east across the Southern High Plains, northwest to west flow will prevail across the Panhandles today and tomorrow.
(Today through Monday afternoon) The strong cold front that began moving through the region yesterday evening (accompanied by a quick shot of wintry precipitation for portions of Southeast New Mexico and the Permian Basin) continues its steady southward progress early this morning, nearing the Rio Grande Valley as of 200 AM CST.
Chilly temps within low level thermal trough will persist into Mon. Deeper troughing aloft centered through the lakes looks to steer bulk of this sys south and east of the area yet snow showers remain likely inland ne half with modest lake accums expected far northwest Wed night-Thu night.
227 PM CST Sun Jan 2 2022 Closed upper low now nearing the MS river expected to slide just to our south through tonight, pushing well east before sunrise Monday. This upper low has a pretty good moisture source and that plus pretty decent UVV will give a shot of winter pcpn, which has already started across our northwest. Elevated surfaces such as bridges/overpasses may see some slick spots late tonight, and for the morning commute.
Water vapor satellite imagery and heights show the 500mb trough east of the area with mid-tropospheric ridging over the Rockies.
1226 PM EST Sun Jan 2 2022 Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb trough over the southern Rockies and northern plains this morning. Low temps Monday night are also expected to be warmer, with the single digits seen across most of the area and teens seen near the Great Lakes.
250 PM CST Sun Jan 2 2022 Main weather to track in the short term is warming temperatures from a weak warm front. Currently this front is draped from Minot to the SD border, with the warmer air generally south and west of the Missouri River. The result will be warmer low temperatures under mid to high clouds and dry conditions. With the warmer temperatures and light winds, wind chills will not approach dangerous levels as they have in the recent days. The southwest looks to see continued warm temperature, while the remainder of the CWA sees temperatures similar to perhaps a touch cooler than today.
High temperatures Monday afternoon will be two to four degrees warmer than this afternoon.
A clear night is expected, thanks to an approaching high pressure system. Tomorrow will be another cold day and quiet, but much "warmer" than today.
MVFR to IFR conditions will prevail over the next few hours as a strong cold front moves across our area, with conditions becoming primarily MVFR through the remainder of the afternoon.
ABM Chattanooga Airport, TN 32 44 27 50 37 / 80 10 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 30 40 22 48 32 / 90 30 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 30 41 24 48 34 / 90 20 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 29 37 18 47 27 / 90 40 0 0 0 NC.
The only limiting factor keeping us from very significant snowfall amounts will be how long it takes for temperatures to drop below freezing, and how long it takes for the ground temperatures to drop below freezing. Areas across northeast Alabama probably won't drop below freezing before around 10 PM, which may keep snowfall amounts lower. High pressure will be building eastward on Monday, with northerly flow keeping cold air flowing into the Tennessee Valley. This will mean overnight low temps Monday night in the low-to-mid 20s.
1125 AM CST Sun Jan 2 2022 (Today and tonight) Currently, the upper level trough axis is located through central Oklahoma as it shifts eastward through the Plains. Throughout the day Sunday after the upper level trough exits the region, conditions will improve and be the beginning of a fairly rapid increase in temperatures the next couple days.
Will stay warmer tonight which will allow for temperatures to rise again above freezing Monday.
418 PM MST Sun Jan 2 2022 20z surface analysis had low over central SK with warm front into central NE. Temps are 20-45F warmer that 24 hours ago. Water vapour loop had upper ridge building into the northern Plains with some CI spilling overhead. Tonight, upper ridge continues building into the area. Monday, upper trough drops into the northern Rockies as upper ridge flattens and shifts into the Great Lakes region. Weak low level warm air advection continues with decent gradient over the higher terrain during the day. Monday night, as the upper trough pushes an arctic cold front into MT, enhanced terrain-enhanced winds will develop on the north through east slopes of the Black Hills as well as over southern Campbell/Weston counties.
206 PM MST Sun Jan 2 2022 Surface warm front has moved through the area this morning, being followed closely by an upper level ridge. However this ridge is going to be a quick moving one, getting out of here Monday night and being followed by a quick moving trough.
Highs will start a very slow warm up through next few days, but remain 5 to 10 degrees below normal in the low elevations for tomorrow.
357 PM MST Sun Jan 2 2022 The quiet weather pattern with low amplitude ridging aloft persists for another 24 hours, after which time a more active pattern begins starting Monday night lasting through the end of the week.
212 PM MST Sun Jan 2 2022 20z surface analysis had low over central SK with warm front into central NE. Temps are 20-45F warmer that 24 hours ago. Water vapour loop had upper ridge building into the northern Plains with some CI spilling overhead. Tonight, upper ridge continues building into the area. Monday, upper trough drops into the northern Rockies as upper ridge flattens and shifts into the Great Lakes region. Weak low level warm air advection continues with decent gradient over the higher terrain during the day. Monday night, as the upper trough pushes an arctic cold front into MT, enhanced terrain-enhanced winds will develop on the north through east slopes of the Black Hills as well as over southern Campbell/Weston counties.
540 PM CST Sun Jan 2 2022 Currently, the area sits in northwesterly flow aloft on the backside of an upper trough axis located over the Mid-south. In the lower levels, westerly downslope flow is noted, leading to temperatures in the mid-20s to mid-30s across western and north central Nebraska. This downslope flow has led to impressive warmup, with North Platte now 45+ degrees warmer than this morning's low of -20F. For tomorrow and tomorrow night, warm advection persists with west/southwesterly flow continuing at H85 and an upper ridge building into the Plains. This promotes H85 temps climbing into the 5-7C range and warmer highs in the 40s. The warmer temps will promote further melting of the snow pack and how much this occurs will again impact overnight lows.
354 PM CST Sun Jan 2 2022 (Issued 354 PM CST Sun Jan 2 2022) Tonight and Monday: High pressure will continue to build into the Great Lakes Region through tonight. Dry conditions, clear skies, and calm winds will continue Monday as the high pressure slowly shifts eastward toward the New England States. Temperatures will be slightly warmer on Monday due to weak warm air advection and southwest flow kicking in on the back side of the exiting high pressure. Highs on Monday are expected to be in the low to mid 20s. The fog development will be largely dependent on the how much moisture we can get from the fresh snowpack, warmer temperatures and shallow moisture advection from the southerly flow.
351 PM CST Sun Jan 2 2022 Currently, the area sits in northwesterly flow aloft on the backside of an upper trough axis located over the Mid-south. In the lower levels, westerly downslope flow is noted, leading to temperatures in the mid-20s to mid-30s across western and north central Nebraska. This downslope flow has led to impressive warmup, with North Platte now 45+ degrees warmer than this morning's low of -20F. For tomorrow and tomorrow night, warm advection persists with west/southwesterly flow continuing at H85 and an upper ridge building into the Plains. This promotes H85 temps climbing into the 5-7C range and warmer highs in the 40s. The warmer temps will promote further melting of the snow pack and how much this occurs will again impact overnight lows.
626 PM EST Sun Jan 2 2022 A low pressure system will advance to our south tonight into early tomorrow morning and bring 1 to 3 inches of snow across the ridges of West Virginia. Prevailing NW flow will prompt upsloping, light snow showers will continue along the ridges of West Virgina just before midnight. Mid and low-level winds will shift from the northeast as a low pressure system to our south tracks into Appalachian Mountains. Cold conditions, with wind chill values in the single digits in the ridges/teens the valleys, are likely.
The low level flow does relax this evening and the airmass is also quite dry. There has been a subtle backing of the low level flow toward the north-northwest, which may be enough to hold lingering sub 5000 ft clouds northeast of metro airport. Temperatures slowly fell through a good part of the day, but have since stabilized/risen with some sunshine and with the low level cold advection being exhausted.
Mid level cloud deck associated with the warm front has pushed through the forecast area with only high level clouds streaming across western and central ND at this time. Main weather to track in the short term is warming temperatures from a weak warm front. Currently this front is draped from Minot to the SD border, with the warmer air generally south and west of the Missouri River. The result will be warmer low temperatures under mid to high clouds and dry conditions. With the warmer temperatures and light winds, wind chills will not approach dangerous levels as they have in the recent days. The southwest looks to see continued warm temperature, while the remainder of the CWA sees temperatures similar to perhaps a touch cooler than today.