Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Temps this morning dropped into the upper 20s at Sidney and Wolf Point this morning, otherwise it was a bit warmer this morning that yesterday morning. A closed low over the southwestern U.
Quiet weather will continue across the region today as we remain under the influence of ridging aloft.
Dry weather looks to continue again today/tonight as SFC/LL high pressure and upper ridging remain in control.
944 AM EDT Wed Sep 9 2020 High pressure provides warm weather this week. The chance for rain increases this weekend, as an upper level trough brings a cold front toward the area.
A broad region of high pressure sits over the Southeast this morning, leading to clear skies apart from some high cirrus-level haze from wildfire smoke sourced from fires out West. High pressure will remain over the region through the rest of today, keeping skies clear and allowing temperatures to rise into the upper 80s to low 90s. High pressure over the Southeast really breaks down on Thursday, with easterly flow at low and mid-levels advecting in moisture from the Atlantic.
Much cooler today and Thursday with high temperatures running several degrees below normal.
Have issued a Freezing Fog Advisory for the Summit & adjacent foothills until 12 PM MDT. However, temperatures remain below freezing over a large part of the area within an anomalously cold air mass. While it may be true that most areas already saw a hard freeze last night, snow and freezing drizzle where the predominant hazards. We will begin trending warmer today as clouds break, but the upper level pattern remains influenced by an intense closed low anchored over the Four Corners region.
An area of low pressure off of the coast of the Carolinas will drift westward during the period as moisture increases steadily through easterly flow. Highs will be in the low to mid 80s with lows in the low 70s. The highest rain chances in the FA are in the eastern Midlands where atmospheric moisture is highest. Surface convergence along an inverted trough near the coast will allow thunderstorms to develop and push inland late in the afternoon or evening. Coastal trough/low off the Carolina coasts will continue to track slowly inland.
Gusty winds continue this morning over the ridgetops with Jarbo Gap reporting a 59 mph wind gust.
(This evening through Thursday) The cold front is expected to slowly move through the remainder of the forecast area this evening, but it may stall southeast of the forecast area again, but there will likely be enough push of the front to bring the temperatures down in Atoka and Bryan Counties for tonight and tomorrow.
Similar to yesterday, expect some erosion from the southeast, though cumulus development may fill skies back in given the higher dewpoint airmass across east central IL and central IN.
The central part of the state will see the potential for winds to come around slightly to the southwest, which may keep that area a bit warmer, mainly in the mid to upper 30s. Winds will remain light across the east, with a better potential for temperatures to fall into the lower to mid 30s, so have issued a Frost Advisory over the central and eastern CWA for the overnight hours into early Thursday morning. With the cloud cover in place, overnight temperatures will only fall into the lower to mid 40s.
156 PM EDT Wed Sep 9 2020 A trough is currently over Florida. This trough is located from a line through St. This trough will help to enhance the shower and storm activity we are already expecting for the area.
As the upper low anchored over the four corners region will begin to weaken and remerge with the main flow stream, the ridge over the eastern U.
Upper level low pressure center situated near the four corners area maintaining a dry northerly flow over our area. The low has also provided the area with cooler temperatures today as most locations are currently running 4-8 DEG F below yday. Meanwhile, high pressure building into the PAC NW will push southward into our area overnight and bring decreasing winds to our area and push the four corners low eastward through the Rocky Mountain region Thursday and Thursday night.
VFR will prevail through early tonight with only high level cirrus between 5 and 10 thousand feet at times as high pressure remains in control. Garuckas Chattanooga Airport, TN 70 90 71 89 72 / 0 20 10 50 20 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 68 88 70 87 71 / 0 20 10 50 10 Oak Ridge, TN 68 89 70 87 70 / 10 20 10 40 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 66 86 67 84 68 / 0 30 30 50 20.
312 PM CDT Wed Sep 9 2020 Shallow frontal boundary is hung up in the higher terrain from near Grove to McAlester at this time. An upper low near the four corners will move little until Thursday afternoon when it will finally begin to eject to the northeast.
250 PM MDT Wed Sep 9 2020 Latest water vapor loop was showing the upper level low spinning over the Utah and Colorado border. This closed upper level low will continue to fill in and drift northeast during the day tomorrow.
335 PM EDT Wed Sep 9 2020 The period begins in a blocky pattern aloft, with a anomalous upper low churning across the Four Corners region at around -3 standard deviations below normal. we see a sprawling upper level ridge coming in off the Atlantic. We remain in the middle with most of our influence from the upper level ridge. Overall highs will be close to today but maybe slightly warmer in a few spots, even so overall mid to upper 80s seems reasonable. We are seeing some fair weather cumulus develop this afternoon as we remain under the influence of ridging and high pressure off to the east.
Low pressure sitting over Utah will continue to circulate cool air into the Great Basin from the north for a couple more days. Otherwise, dry conditions will continue and high pressure will bring a warming trend for the weekend. Low pressure sitting over Utah will continue to circulate cool air into the Great Basin from the north for a couple more days. Otherwise, dry conditions will continue and high pressure will bring a warming trend for the weekend. The low pressure area that brought significant wind to the northern and east central Nevada will linger near the UT/AZ border through this evening, before ejecting northeastward through Colorado on Thursday. Overnight lows will be near freezing in most areas with a slow warming during the day.
216 PM EDT Wed Sep 9 2020 Quiet weather remains the theme tonight into tomorrow as ridging aloft continues to influence our weather. The quasi-stationary front across central Indiana will slowly drop south as a weak cold front.
A shallow cold front is currently stalled out from about a Grove to McAlester to Durant line. Behind the front, temperatures are staying steady in the 50s and 60s with overcast skies and ahead of the front are partly cloudy skies with temperatures beginning to warm into the low to mid 80s. Due to the low cloud cover staying put behind the front for most of the morning and more clouds moving in across northeast Oklahoma.
A blocking upper pattern is in place with an upper low over the Four Corners area and a high over the Pacific NW coast.
209 PM EDT Wed Sep 9 2020 Large ridge of high pressure will persist over the Eastern U. Shower and thunderstorm chances increase across NE PA and into the Southern Tier and Catskills on Thursday as a cold front drops through from the north.
221 PM CDT Wed Sep 9 2020 High pressure will remain in place overnight, keeping conditions dry and winds light and variable. The established ridge across the Southeast will breakdown on Thursday as a trough and a cut off low slide eastward.
Rain chances return over the weekend with an approaching low pressure system. GOES satellite imagery shows a mostly clear sky across the forecast area due to prevailing high pressure. Temperatures will remain above average as warm, moist low- level southeast flow will continues on the western flank of the Atlantic ridge. The aforementioned frontal boundary will nudge southward on Thursday, with only slight relief as temperatures are only expected to be a couple degrees cooler than Wednesday. Convergence just south or along the front combined with heating across the Allegheny Mountains may result in a few showers across the higher elevations, but otherwise no precipitation is expected given meager upper-level support.
RMS A warming and drying trend will start today as ridging begins to build in.
Compared to the guidance blend, these temperatures are warmer at night and cooler by day by at least a few degrees. The upper level low across the Four-Corners region of the wrn U.
132 PM EDT Wed Sep 9 2020 A southerly flow around high pressure will bring dry weather and above normal temperatures through Thursday.
A large closed low centered over the 4 corners region will basically not move for the next 12-18 hours which will keep the clouds and periodic rain showers all across western and central Kansas for tonight. Thursday the center of the upper low slowly starts to move northward and as we go throughout the day the chances of rain should lessen.
214 PM CDT Wed Sep 9 2020 Upper air pattern across the US shows a prolific balance of a longwave trough and upper-low centered in the western US and a stout ridge off the east coast. Temps this afternoon have remain fairly stagnant with most locales still only 5- 7 degrees warmer than lows from the morning. With the overcast deck settled over the area, temperatures will continue to struggle to rise much during the afternoon, but with a slight moderation in low-level temps, Thursday highs will be around 5-10 degrees warmer than today.
Inverted trough has moved inland and winds have shifted to the southeast with the passage of the trough axis now located near the Highway 301 corridor over se Ga/ne Fl.
1220 PM CDT Wed Sep 9 2020 Active weather continues through tonight as a closed upper level low and resulting trough remains over the central and southwest US. Rainfall totals around a quarter of an inch or less is expected with the highest QPF values across southwest Nebraska.
This weekend, the ridge of high pressure will strengthen over the Pacific Northwest and move over the Northern Rockies. Also, the pattern change will bring slightly cooler temperatures and may help with the concentration of smoke in the region. High pressure will dominate for the next few days causing mainly light terrain driven winds. The valleys of central Idaho are expected to have the highest concentration of smoke during the next 24 hours, while most of the rest of the region will have great visibility and clear skies.
309 PM EDT Wed Sep 9 2020 High pressure will continue to provide mainly clear skies tonight. Increasing clouds and slightly cooler temperatures can be expected Thursday as a cold front drops from the northwest.
Elsewhere, shower and thunderstorm coverage is increasing across the western waters and north of the Lower Keys. Winds remain from the southeast as we remain on the southern periphery of a broad ridge axis that extends from the western Atlantic. Weak ridging will develop aloft and will keep a layer of subsidence in place, hindering chances for showers and thunderstorms.
as the stalled frontal boundary over our region will be pushed to the south by an approaching area of high pressure. courtesy of a ridging off the east coast.
The clouds and increased shower activity currently observed on radar will limit highs today which will mainly stay in the low to mid 80s. Coastal trough/low off the Carolina coasts will continue to track slowly inland.
Current conditions suggest models have significantly underestimated the strength of the cold front and airmass behind. /issued 357 AM CDT Wed Sep 9 2020/ An upper level trough extends from the northern Plains to Arizona and New Mexico. This trough has increased upper lift over West Texas and southeast New Mexico. A cold front associated with this trough has pushed through the area with significantly colder temperatures and gusty winds behind it.
138 PM CDT Wed Sep 9 2020 Surface and upper ridge are situated near Middle Tennessee this afternoon.
The clouds and increased shower activity currently observed on radar will limit highs today which will mainly stay in the low to mid 80s. Coastal trough/low off the Carolina coasts will continue to move very slowly westward and inland over the next couple of days.
130 PM EDT Wed Sep 9 2020 High pressure provides warm weather this week. The chance for rain increases this weekend, as an upper level trough brings a cold front toward the area.
Much cooler today and Thursday with high temperatures running several degrees below normal. Temperatures will remain cooler today through Thursday with highs peaking around 6 degrees cooler than normal for the day. An unseasonably deep storm system will move into northern Arizona today and bring much cooler temperatures to the region.
1237 PM CDT Wed Sep 9 2020 (Today and tonight) A cold front at 3 am was located from near Brownwood to just south of San Angelo to south of Mertzon.
209 PM MDT Wed Sep 9 2020 Upper ridging will promote clear skies tonight into Thursday across the Northern Rockies.
Deep moisture and weak troughing aloft will keep SCT-NMRS shower and ISOLD-SCT lightning storm chances in the forecast through early-mid evening. Light S/SE winds on the backside of a trough axis that is moving westward away from ECFL.
Another tough forecast this afternoon dependent on the movement of the cold front across the area. A shallow cold front is currently stalled out from about a Grove to McAlester to Durant line. Behind the front, temperatures are staying steady in the 50s and 60s with overcast skies and ahead of the front are partly cloudy skies with temperatures beginning to warm into the low to mid 80s. Due to the low cloud cover staying put behind the front for most of the morning and more clouds moving in across northeast Oklahoma.
As the almost stationary upper level closed low continues churning over the Four Corners region, another wave can be seen generating thunderstorms over the mountains near the AZ/NM state line.
The Wednesday afternoon satellite representation is really quite impressive as a closed low continues to rotate and even retrograde slightly over Utah. The warm conveyor was clearly evident extending from the western Gulf of Mexico north to South Dakota, then splitting back west and wrapping around the upper low.
1210 PM MDT Wed Sep 9 2020 Vorticity lobe rotating around the main upper low has resulted in an increase in precipitation across the area tonight. Ground temperatures remain well above freezing which will inhibit accumulations, and still expecting 1 to 3 inches of wet slushy snow in northeast Colorado, though some locally higher amounts possible. As for temperatures, they are working out as expected, with lower 30s in northeast Colorado, generally 30-33F, and near freezing in adjacent counties to the east. Tonight, expecting a decrease in precipitation coverage as upper low retrogrades a bit and settles into the Four Corners. Low temperatures currently forecast to be a few degrees warmer, low to middle 30s, with the only risk of another light freeze in western parts of Kit Carson and Cheyenne counties of northeast Colorado.
The latest upper level analysis reveals closed low over the Four Corners region with main plume of mid level moisture pivoting across the plains. The northwest has the best chance for showers Thursday as the upper low is expected to start its move across CO, with some PVA clipping the the northwest zones.
Inverted trough will remain in place over the region through Thursday, keeping the moisture fetch in place and increasing precip coverage as tropical feature moves onshore.
233 PM MDT Wed Sep 9 2020 Latest analysis shows an upper low over the four corners region streaming abundant mid/high level moisture and clouds toward the forecast area from the south. Relatively dry high pressure at the surface, with dewpoints in the lower 20s to lower 30s, is keeping most of the the cloud cover confined to the southern parts of the forecast area with clear skies currently over the north. Temperatures will be relatively cold again tonight, however expect lows to be a few degrees warmer than the various MOS guidance numbers as the models are underestimating the amount of cloud cover for tonight.
211 PM EDT Wed Sep 9 2020 High pressure provides warm weather this week. The chance for rain increases this weekend, as an upper level trough brings a cold front toward the area.
153 PM CDT Wed Sep 9 2020 Quiet weather and slightly warmer temperatures highlight the short-term. Clear skies and light winds will lead to lows Thursday morning in the 30s and low 40s, with the potential for near or below freezing conditions again in some areas (mainly southwest ND). Thursday will be very similar to Wednesday, though slightly warmer as clear skies and southerly winds continue.
This will likely keep warm temperatures along the coast and into the mid RGV, with cooler temperatures across the west and border into the upper RGV.
151 PM EDT Wed Sep 9 2020 A trough is currently over Florida. This trough is located from a line through St. This trough will help to enhance the shower and storm activity we are already expecting for the area.
A strong temperature gradient was present around this front, with temperatures ranging from the low/mid 60s across southeast Kansas and western Missouri to the mid/upper 80s over southern Missouri.
The moisture axis associated with the nearby cold front shrinks back towards our northwest and the Lake MI area. High pressure pushing into the Great Lakes and low pressure moving into the Plains allows the front to slide farther south into the region.
The clouds and light shower activity currently observed on radar will limit highs today which will mainly stay in the low to mid 80s. Coastal trough/low off the Carolina coasts will continue to track slowly inland.
(Tonight through Thursday) On water vapor satellite, an upper level low was spinning over the Four Corners region, which is continuing to pump plentiful mid and upper level moisture into West Central Texas. Meanwhile, plenty of moisture has come into the surface and low levels from the cold front which has finally pushed through most of the Northwest Hill Country, leaving behind significantly colder air. With the expected overcast skies and cool post- frontal northerly winds continuing, expect another day of much cooler than normal temperatures Thursday with highs in the upper 50s in the northwest counties to mid 60s in the southeast counties.
1226 PM CDT Wed Sep 9 2020 The deep upper low has settled over the Four Corners region, showers continued to advect northward through the Central Plains out ahead of it. As a result of the continued rain and cloud cover, temperatures will not be much, if any, warmer than yesterday. High pressure sliding in from the west will lead to decreasing shower coverage for northwestern portions of the area by late afternoon. This trend will continue to through the overnight as the highest rain chances focus farther south and east. By Thursday evening, the upper low is forecast to start to eject out of the SW and approach the area.
Main focus for the TAFs is the arrival or partial arrival of the first fall cold front. As noted in the short-term, the cold front should be able to reach the MFE vcnty as early as midnight, and potentially to BRO as early as 08Z, sea wind interactions will make the BRO front arrival more difficult to define unless the front arrives stronger than the finer resolutions models anticipate. This will likely keep warm temperatures along the coast and into the mid RGV, with cooler temperatures across the west and border into the upper RGV.
Temperatures have already slid into the lower to middle 70s, on their way to overnight lows in the middle to upper 60s. The established ridge across the Southeast will breakdown on Thursday as a trough and a cut off low slide eastward.
This will result in another day of cooler than normal temperatures with gradual warming expected into the weekend. Much cooler temperatures were had by all with highs peaking 6-10 degrees below average.
Quiet weather remains the theme tonight into tomorrow as ridging aloft continues to influence our weather. The quasi-stationary front across central Indiana will slowly drop south as a weak cold front.
Rain chances return over the weekend with an approaching low pressure system. Temperatures will remain above average as warm, moist low-level southeast flow continues on the western flank of the Atlantic ridge. Convergence just south or along the front combined with heating across the Allegheny Mountains may result in a few showers across the higher elevations, but otherwise no precipitation is expected given meager upper-level support.
In the mid and upper levels of the atmosphere, a closed low sits over the Four Corners region, while strong ridging extends westward into the western Atlantic. Meanwhile at the surface, a coastal trough is positioned just off the southeast U. 75 to 2 inches and dew points in the lower to mid 70s. This moisture combined with some short wave energy along the western periphery of the ridge will result in isolated to scattered showers through mid evening. Coastal trough/low off the Carolina coasts will continue to move very slowly westward and inland over the next couple of days.
709 PM CDT Wed Sep 9 2020 (Tonight through Thursday) On water vapor satellite, an upper level low was spinning over the Four Corners region, which is continuing to pump plentiful mid and upper level moisture into West Central Texas. Meanwhile, plenty of moisture has come into the surface and low levels from the cold front which has finally pushed through most of the Northwest Hill Country, leaving behind significantly colder air. With the expected overcast skies and cool post- frontal northerly winds continuing, expect another day of much cooler than normal temperatures Thursday with highs in the upper 50s in the northwest counties to mid 60s in the southeast counties.
624 PM CDT Wed Sep 9 2020 (This evening through Thursday) The cold front is expected to slowly move through the remainder of the forecast area this evening, but it may stall southeast of the forecast area again, but there will likely be enough push of the front to bring the temperatures down in Atoka and Bryan Counties for tonight and tomorrow.
/issued 214 PM CDT Wed Sep 9 2020/ Upper air pattern across the US shows a prolific balance of a longwave trough and upper-low centered in the western US and a stout ridge off the east coast. Temps this afternoon have remain fairly stagnant with most locales still only 5- 7 degrees warmer than lows from the morning. With the overcast deck settled over the area, temperatures will continue to struggle to rise much during the afternoon, but with a slight moderation in low-level temps, Thursday highs will be around 5-10 degrees warmer than today.
547 PM MDT Wed Sep 9 2020 Latest water vapor loop was showing the upper level low spinning over the Utah and Colorado border. This closed upper level low will continue to fill in and drift northeast during the day tomorrow.
As the upper low anchored over the four corners region will begin to weaken and reemerge with the main flow stream, the ridge over the eastern U.
* Enhanced easterly winds look to return along the ridges north of Tahoe tonight albeit not as strong as they were this morning.
A sprawling high pressure cell will remain centered over the western North Atlantic, well northeast of Bermuda.
close to the 750mb level due to the mid level jet support in the base of the longwave trough. Tonight rain chances increase as a wave ejecting out of the closed low over the four corners phases with a northern stream trough working across MN/WI. The jet will pull the better energy to the northeast though the trough axis will clip Mid MI providing some support for increase rain (or drizzle) coverage. Stratus and possibly patchy fog will remain into Thursday before the trough passage forces the airmass southward, allowing high pressure to build in from the west. Mid level heights will stagnate as the main trough pulls away and the cutoff low is only slowly drifting east.