Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Dry weather with periods of high clouds will persist this week as high pressure remains over the region or situated just to the south. Above normal temperatures with lower desert highs in the lower and middle 80s are in the forecast for the foreseeable future. Strengthening high pressure aloft today into Monday may lead to warmer deserts, including the greater Phoenix area, climbing into the upper 80s each day with temperatures peaking on Monday. A storm system passing to the north later in the week could bring slightly cooler temperatures and breezy winds to the Southwest. A seasonably strong anticyclone remains in place across northern Mexico, with high clouds continuing to stream northeastward within stronger west-southwesterly flow along the northern periphery of this feature.
A cold front will move through tomorrow morning, shifting winds to the north-northwest, with drier air following in the afternoon that will bring VFR conditions at TYS and CHA.
408 PM MST Sun Nov 12 2017 Water vapor shows upper ridge over the Rockies. Upper ridge will peak over the Northern Plains on Monday, with many areas reaching into the lower 60s.
Light rain continues to exit the state as a cold front continues its way south.
557 PM CST Sun Nov 12 2017 Not much change in the last 24 hours as persistent stratus lingers over much of the Northland under high pressure. There may be pockets of freezing drizzle out there, but have yet to receive any reports of it despite some indication on radar and a 4 SM HZ report at KINL. An 850 mb warm front begins to nose into the region, but the end result will be slightly warmer temperatures on Monday. Also, fog is a possibility tonight again as the slightly warmer air moves over the snow.
544 PM CST Sun Nov 12 2017 The weak cold frontal passage that occurred last night has kept us cloudy with below average temperatures that will struggle to get even into the 50s this afternoon. The cloud coverage will eventually shift south allowing temperatures to drop down to near freezing and below freezing over northern Missouri.
615 PM CST Sun Nov 12 2017 Visible satellite is showing an extensive area of clouds covering the area as water vapor imagery is showing a mid level trough moving across Missouri and Illinois. Some patchy drizzle is be reported over the area ahead of the trough. This trough will move east of the area this evening, but the clouds will be slower the clear out.
643 PM EST Sun Nov 12 2017 High pressure will shift east tonight as weak low pressure moves east out of the Ohio Valley. Weak low pressure will pass south of New England on Monday.
Most of the low clouds have dissipated. Enhancement of precip occurred as a jet associated with an upper level trough has moved into the region. The rain shield should gradually retreat southward as the upper trough brings a cold front across the area and into the Gulf of Mexico tonight. A slow moving upper trough to the north this week means little change expected in the local weather. Highs will be creeping back up into the mid/upper 70s by later this week as the upper trough to the east moves out into the Atlantic Ocean. Attm, GFS and ECMWF are not quite in agreement on how amplified the the trough will be.
511 PM CST Sun Nov 12 2017 A weak cold front/surface wind shift was well on its way across the PAH forecast area this afternoon as a mid level trof axis approached from the northwest. Some breaks in the clouds may occur for a few hours this afternoon, mainly over parts of southeastern MO/western KY, but should fill back in as the aforementioned trof creates a bit of lift.
753 PM EST Sun Nov 12 2017 Weak low pressure and a cold front will approach from the west tonight and cross Monday.
954 PM EST Sun Nov 12 2017 A loop of KBYX Doppler radar images shows a relatively large area of showers pushing westward through the Atlantic waters well south and southwest of the Lower Keys.
This will bring the possibility for patchy fog in the Lower Treasure Valley near Ontario and in the Long Valley (McCall) late tonight.
506 PM MDT Sat Sep 2 2017 Large upper ridge covers the western CONUS, with dry and warm conditions across the Northern Plains. Even warmer conditions expected on Sunday with thermal ridge passing overhead. Very dry and breezy conditions will develop as a dry cold front crosses the region with widespread Red Flag conditions expected (see Fire Weather discussion below).
The upper air system will catch up with the low level moisture and produce scattered showers during the pre dawn hours. Layer moisture is set to decrease markedly during the day on Sunday with further decreases likely into Labor Day as high pressure moves toward the central Appalachians.
/Tonight through Sunday/ Weak trough axis moving through the state today into this evening and is currently stretching from SE MN through northeast Iowa to just west of DSM and into southwest Iowa. Behind the boundary tonight clouds to diminish and winds to go light and variable with an area of high pressure building into the state briefly. This high will quickly shove south and east by early Sunday through with westerly to southwesterly flow developing.
Expect upper 60s and low 70s along and west of that line, with folks further east likely staying in the low to mid 60s. Expect a dry overnight with lows dropping into the low and mid 50s in most spots. Expect warmer temps in the upper 70s and low 80s. Still expecting a dry Labor Day with warm temps in the low to mid 80s under mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies.
heat index values generally in the lower/mid 90s. A dry nrly flow through the column thanks to ern CONUS troffing/Harvey remnants should maintain dry conditions through the remainder of the weekend.
A strong upper ridge is in place over the Western US with troughing in the Eastern US. The base of the trough stretches southward into the Central Appalachians; therefore keeping the the upper level trough axis to our east-northeast, putting us in an zone of northwesterly flow aloft and upper-level convergence.
High pressure and drier Sunday through Labor Day. Strong cold front midweek. A continuation of the high PoP low QPF weather as Harvey continues to dissipate over the area. Temperatures will remain cooler than normal. Linger some POPs into Sunday night as an upper level trough swings through the Great Lakes.
712 PM EDT Sat Sep 2 2017 As low pressure pulls farther away from the area this evening, drier air will build in from the west through the night. Cigs will be slow to rise with the lowering sun angle, with VFR conditions returning in the early afternoon.
Isolated -SHRA may also develop overnight through Sunday across portions of extreme NE TX/SE OK/SW AR near the trough, but low confidence precludes mention in the TXK/ELD terminals attm. An enlongated area of ascent and vorticity with this trough has supported the development of some isolated showers along and north of Interstate 30.
821 PM EDT Sat Sep 2 2017 Lingering showers will slowly push east out of the area following a retreating low pressure. High pressure will build in for Sunday offering dry weather and warmer temperatures.
Very quiet and warm conditions anticipated for the next 36 hours as an upper level ridge over the Rockies to Intermountain West, leaves the Central Plains under a highly subsident northwest flow regime. Just enough cross mountain flow will exist to permit the lee trough to deepen over eastern Colorado which will keep south winds and resultant dewpoints in the upper 50s to lower 60s in place. However, with forcing along the trough staying well west of Kansas and warm midlevel temperatures creating strong inhibition, dry conditions with little to no cloud cover is likely.
825 PM EDT Sat Sep 2 2017 A weak cold front will be near the coast tonight.
Weak high pressure ridge over the waters will provide a light south-southwest wind tonight, then the models show variable winds less than 10 knots on Sunday.
Weak upper level troughing across the area will slide eastward overnight with some drier air briefly moving into the northern portions of the area.
This gives way to sunny skies continuing on Sunday, but with much warmer/hot temperatures as surface winds become southerly through the day.
High pressure will be in control most of time through the forecast period.
Broad high pressure aloft over much of the Western U. The airmass will remain mainly dry with even warmer temperatures expected on Sunday. Continued dry and warm conditions will continue Sunday night across the area under the influence of the upper ridge over the Great Basin and into UT.
708 PM EDT Sat Sep 2 2017 A weak cold front will be near the coast tonight.
Lidia will continue to weaken during the overnight hours as it moves NW into cooler waters.
702 PM CDT Sat Sep 2 2017 A secondary short wave associated with Hudson Bay upper low is now affecting northeast MN into northwest WI, while clouds have cleared the remainder of our area. The cold front is bringing in drier air, with dew points in northwest Minnesota in the upper 40s, and even lower dew points farther west and north. Dry high pressure will continue trekking to our south and the next low/front do not move in until Sunday evening. Dew points could easily be lower than projected, and max temps may need to go higher with some downslope flow off the Buffalo Ridge.
Medium A trough of low pressure situated from western Lake Superior into extreme western WI will continue to shift east into this evening. Medium to High Rather benign northwest 500 millibar flow with weak ridging setting up ahead of the next low in the Plains.
A weak surface cold front has moved to the southern part of the forecast area during the day with mainly light winds behind the front. An upper level ridge will nose into the forecast area tonight and Sunday.
936 PM EDT Sat Sep 2 2017 A weak cold front will push slowly southeastward through central North Carolina overnight.
1028 PM EDT Sat Sep 2 2017 A weak cold front will be near the coast tonight.
525 PM MDT Sat Sep 2 2017 Upper-level ridging will continue to strengthen across the central Rockies on Sunday, giving way to a continued period of hot and dry conditions for southeast WY and the western NE Panhandle.
However, the lower levels will begin moistening as the southwest flow gets more established over the next several hours. Some small variations in the morning model guidance regarding the speed of the strong cold front, but in general the front should be through most of the CWA by midnight.
An upper level trough over the region along with a cold front has aided in producing scattered thunderstorms this afternoon, some strong. A strong cold front and low pressure system will move southeast toward northern Minnesota on Sunday reaching northwest Minnesota during the afternoon. It will also be warmer with highs ranging from 75 to 80 over eastern areas. Gusty southwest winds will occur and keep parts of the Arrowhead cooler.
With the increase in easterly flow across the area, look for more clouds and slightly cooler temperatures. Highs will be in the low to mid 90s.
210 AM EDT Wed Aug 25 2021 A weak trough should bring scattered showers and thunderstorms to the region today, but strong high pressure building in from Bermuda should bring temperatures back into the 90s through the weekend along with relatively dry weather through the weekend. Despite troughs at both the surface and mid-levels, the forcing from the troughs just do not appear to be overly impressive for generating precipitation today. No relief overnight, with lows in the lower 70s once again. Highs will creep back into the low to mid 90s.
Otherwise, an upper low near the Bahamas will continue to move NW into FL, pushing weak upper troughiness and band of enhanced moisture, with PW over 2 in, that's currently just offshore the Carolinas, into our FA. Overall severe potential appears low with weak to moderate instability, lack of dry mid level air, shallow low level inverted V and high freezing level/WBZ heights. Upper ridge across the western Atlantic on Wednesday will slowly moving westward and eventually into the southeastern States. South of the ridge, a weak low will traverse along the southern portions of the upper ridge. North of that area of low pressure, there will be some increase in low-level moisture. By Thursday, the low will be further west and the upper ridge will be building into the region.
Warmer temepratures return by the end of the work week due to high pressure, with widespread triple digit heat expected by the weekend. Temperatures across central California continue to run slightly below normal under the influence of a low pressure trough along the west coast. Model runs are similar in gradually lifting this trough out as high pressure bridges across California.
Elongated large scale trough across the northern plains will allow for episodic threat of storms through the short term. With persistent thermal advection into these areas, as H5 center edges slightly north, temperatures should be a few degrees warmer than today. With warmer temperatures and little of no moderation of dewpoint, hoisted another heat advisory for Thursday.
In regards to the thunderstorm risk, the current stationary front currently draping along portions of southeast Wyoming, dropping south into northeast Colorado, begins to move northeast as a warm front, advecting warm air and moisture into southeast Wyoming and the Nebraska panhandle, increasing the precipitation potential.
627 AM CDT Wed Aug 25 2021 After some morning isolated convection, ridging will allow for the hot and dry conditions to continue through the short term.
It should better spawn thunderstorms across southeast OH if it makes its expected eastward progression, with the low potential for those storms to become severe given high DCAPE values (related to dry air aloft) in the region.
Storm chances will remain on the lower side today, but will still hold VCTS between 20-00Z.
934 AM CDT Wed Aug 25 2021 Tranquil weather conditions across the Tennessee Valley this morning, with high pressure still promoting clear and calm conditions. Southwesterly flow will pick up this afternoon as the aforementioned ridge shifts east, allowing for the reinforcement of an already warm and humid air mass. Otherwise, we can expect yet another hot and humid day with highs in the low to mid 90s and heat index values peaking between 100 to 105 degrees. High pressure will allow another night of mostly clear skies and calm winds, with patchy fog possible again early Thursday morning. The upper ridge will weaken slightly and drift north-eastward across the Mid Mississippi Valley on Thursday, while a trough tries to build a little northward from the Gulf.
A weak upper-level trough was moving east across NRN CA early this morning. As that feature departs east, midlevel heights will rise slightly, and a warmer airmass will gradually develop across the WRN CONUS during the remainder of the week.
641 AM CDT Wed Aug 25 2021 (Today and tonight) Hot and dry weather will persist across the area today, as upper level high pressure dominates. Skies will be mostly clear tonight, with overnight lows in the lower and middle 70s.
900 AM CDT Wed Aug 25 2021 H5 analysis from earlier tonight had an elongated area of high pressure extending from New Mexico east into the Tennessee valley. High pressure was anchored over Bermuda. Across the western CONUS, a trough of low pressure extended down the west coast of the United States from Washington to northern California. Weak northerly and northeasterly winds will bring in cooler air to the forecast area.
Luckily this won't last long, nor will the warm-up, as a trough of low pressure begins to influence the region starting tomorrow. As the trough nears the region Thursday, most of the smoke will be pushed further south, as well as allowing slightly cooler temperatures to return.
Models are showing an upper trough over the western United States. For Thursday, the upper trough will be transiting over the Great Basin.
VFR conditions will prevail beneath high pressure aloft. /Issued 354 AM CDT Wed Aug 25 2021/ The dome of high pressure remained firmly in place across the Southern and Central Plains early this morning.
Deep ridging continues to dominate across the southern Appalachian region this morning with abundant isolation favoring modest warming. JB Chattanooga Airport, TN 94 72 89 71 89 / 20 20 50 10 20 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 94 71 91 70 91 / 20 20 40 10 20 Oak Ridge, TN 94 70 91 69 89 / 20 10 40 10 20 Tri Cities Airport, TN 93 68 91 66 90 / 30 20 40 10 20.
620 AM EDT Wed Aug 25 2021 A weak trough will bring scattered showers and thunderstorms to the region today, but strong high pressure building in from Bermuda will bring hot temperatures through the weekend, along with relatively dry weather. Despite troughs at both the surface and mid-levels, the forcing from the troughs just do not appear to be overly impressive for generating precipitation today. No relief overnight, with lows in the lower 70s once again. Highs will creep back into the low to mid 90s.
644 AM CDT Wed Aug 25 2021 H5 analysis from earlier tonight had an elongated area of high pressure extending from New Mexico east into the Tennessee valley. High pressure was anchored over Bermuda. Across the western CONUS, a trough of low pressure extended down the west coast of the United States from Washington to northern California. Weak northerly and northeasterly winds will bring in cooler air to the forecast area.
627 AM CDT Wed Aug 25 2021 High pressure continues to be in control. Today Through Thursday Night An upper ridge continues over the central and southern U. with an upper trough over the west coast. The center of the ridge is over Oklahoma and will move east Thursday. Highs will be in the mid and upper 90s today and a bit cooler on Thursday. Lows at night will be in the lower to mid 70s.
A mid level trough over the Caribbean will gradually lift northward today and tonight, initially increasing cloud cover through the late morning, with showers and storms arriving by the afternoon hours. Afternoon highs will reach the lower 90s with increasing clouds and onshore flow. (previous) Ridge axis will be north of the local waters with E/ESE winds around 10 kt through early this afternoon before the gradient tightens increasing winds to 10-15 kt, except 15-20 kt well offshore south of Cape Canaveral, where Small Craft Should Exercise Caution.
storms that were moving through the upper Keys have now weaken as they head into the lower Keys.
(Today and tonight) Hot and dry weather will persist across the area today, as upper level high pressure dominates. Skies will be mostly clear tonight, with overnight lows in the lower and middle 70s.
/issued 343 AM CDT Wed Aug 25 2021/ Upper ridging will continue to control our weather locally, meaning another hot and dry day. Temperatures should be very similar to yesterday, peaking in the middle 90s for most spots on the Caprock, while the lower elevations to the east reach the upper 90s to about 104 degrees.
Tomorrow's high temps will remain similar to today's, but a degree or two cooler. An upper lvl ridge over the TX/OK PH will enforce subsidence across the region keeping precip chances low across.
An 80-knot jet will rotate around this trough will combine with instability to generate ample lift for scattered to widespread shower and thunderstorm development on Thursday.
323 PM EDT Wed Aug 25 2021 The first round of showers and isolated thunderstorms are moving out of the lower Keys and will exit out of the coastal waters in the next several hours.
This is all in conjunction with a weak mid-level trough pushing into the region and providing the primary forcing for convection. Convection should begin in the north-central Midlands along that differential heating boundary, and then nearest to the upper-level trough. Highs will likely top out in the low 90s considering cloud coverage should increase fairly quickly this afternoon. High pressure will be ridging across the forecast area Thursday with a moisture gradient just south of the area. With mid and upper level ridging also over the area models show a subsidence inversion which will limit convection.
12Z upper air analysis/GOES-16 satellite trends this morning depict an upper level ridge axis encompassing much of the Southern United States. Temperatures are in the low to mid 70s.
Weak mean cloud layer flow (generally nely < 10kts) suggests some propagation out of the higher terrain is possible today, perhaps enhanced along any outflow boundaries that intrude through the valley amongst a very unstable airmass later in the afternoon/evening. Thus, did favor chance pops for the higher elevations, slight chances in the valley. As for Thursday, much the same as today however with slightly more shra/tsra coverage as the upper ridge weakens favoring gradual height falls and thus less inhibition. That being said, temperatures look to be a few degrees cooler (still above normal with heat indices nearing 100) given earlier cu formation, which could delay CI a bit, as well as reduce peak diurnal instability.
Small batch of convection across SC Kansas looks like will pose no threat to NE OK with warmer mid level temps in place south of the convection.
We will see the upper ridge loose it's grip and more of an inverted mid level trough type regime looks to develop. The low levels will respond with more of a ESE flow.
234 PM CDT Wed Aug 25 2021 Another very hot and humid afternoon across the Tennessee Valley region again this afternoon, with temperatures in the low to mid 90s in most locations.
There won't be much relief in the way of a breeze today and dewpoints will remain in the low 70s. We should see temperatures max out in the low to mid 90s west of the Cumberland Plateau and in the upper 80s to around 90 on the Plateau.
The ups will be near normal temperatures through Thursday and any smoke that settles into area valleys will be pushed east by a weak cold front that evening.
Upper level ridge weakens a little, with thickness values coming down slightly. Expecting Thursday highs to be a few degrees cooler than today, in the low to mid 90s.
Skies will be clear to partly cloudy with east winds around 10 mph today and slightly warmer temperatures. Flow aloft turns SW this evening as an upper trough moves inland from the Pacific.
The basic thunderstorm forecast tonight revolves around the development of a low level jet across KS which will lift a warm front into swrn or wcntl Nebraska by morning. Only the NAMnest suggests more than isolated severe storm coverage but this model is a sfc based CAM and the convection tonight will be mostly elevated forming north of a warm front. The sfc warm front should be near the SD border with a large warm sector open across wrn and ncntl Nebraska. The NAM will then sink a cold front into or toward swrn Nebraska during the afternoon.
Out ahead of the trough, southeast flow will transport moisture and instability into central and eastern areas.
An expansive deep-layer ridge remains centered over the Southern Plains and is the dominant feature influencing current weather conditions. Downstream of the ridge, the easterly flow across the area will cause temperatures of only a degree or two cooler this afternoon compared to yesterday.
This will be another hot and humid day ahead of the cold front, thus have extended the heat advisory into Thursday afternoon/evening for our more humid southeastern zones. It does appear that an upper trough will be working its way east into the northern high plains and we could see some thunderstorms move into our forecast area primarily during the evening and overnight hours, but chances are on the lower end at this point given model uncertainty.
319 PM CDT Wed Aug 25 2021 Upper trough is currently swinging across the Pacific Northwest with a broad area of upper ridging from the Ozarks through the southern High Plains. At the surface, cold front extends from far northeast KS to north of KDDC and is nearly stationary or lifting slowly north. The exception will be southeast KS which will hold dewpoints in the low 70s. Unfortunately this wave is not expected to push the cold front far enough south to make it into our forecast area.