Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
ALONG WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES. A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION RESULTING IN MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CONTINUED TO BUILD ALONG THE WEST COAST. MOSTLY RANGING FROM LOW TEENS TO LOW 20S OVER THE LOWER DESERTS. AS THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD TO OUR WEST THIS WEEKEND WE WILL SEE THE WARM AIR ALOFT STEADILY MIX TOWARDS THE SURFACE AND HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS UNDER SUNNY SKIES.
BEST CHANCE TO GET SOME BREAKS IN THE STRATUS DECK WILL BE IN THE COUNTIES ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-80 WHERE SFC TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER.
A cold front will turn southwest winds this evening to the northwest at all sites by 03Z/9PM or 04Z/10PM. Winds will keep the atmosphere mixed overnight, keeping low in the low/mid 30s in the Big Country and upper 20s along the I- 10 corridor. Deep upper level trough will dive into the Mississippi Valley and combine with a ridge over the US West Coast to produce northwest flow across West Central Texas for much of the period.
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE TRENDS THIS MORNING INDICATE A LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS STRETCHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION BACK THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. AT THE BASE OF THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW. SHORT TERM MODELS INDICATE THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TODAY. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL TO THE SOUTH TOWARDS THE GULF OF MEXICO. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER 50S AT MOST LOCATIONS.
Although area radars picking up mid level light echos spreading into Northeast Oklahoma, air-mass remains dry in the low levels with precipitation not reaching the ground given current ceiling heights/latest surface observations.
LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TEENS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT. CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL ON SATURDAY WITH AN INCREASE IN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS LATE IN THE DAY AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 40S ARE EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY ALTHOUGH THE WIDESPREAD SNOW PACK WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES. THIS IS DUE TO A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL BUILD OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SHOULD REMAIN OVER THE FORECAST AREA BUT ANY DISTURBANCES THAT WOULD BRING PRECIPITATION OR FORCE COLD FRONTS THROUGH SHOULD REMAIN WELL EAST.
CIGS WILL BOUNCE BETWEEN 5-10KFT OR SO INTO SATURDAY AS MID LEVEL MOISTURE ENCROACHING ON THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT EDGE INTO THE AREA AS THE NEXT TROUGH APPROACHES. AFTER A BRIEF VEERING OF WINDS TO THE WNW IN WAKE OF AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH. SOLID LOW LEVEL (925-850 MB) THETA-E RIDGE/(2+ G/KG OF SPECIFIC HUMIDITY)/CONVERGENCE/ TRAVERSING THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN TODAY GENERATING SOME LAKE MICHIGAN ENHANCED SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWER/FLURRY ACTIVITY (MAINLY NORTH OF I- 69). DESPITE BEING EMBEDDED UNDERNEATH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OUT AHEAD OF THE CENTRAL NORTH AMERICAN TROUGH. WITH 500 MB CLOSED LOW/CIRCULATION DEVELOPING.
326 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016 WEAK RIDGING WILL GIVE WAY TO A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL PASS WELL NORTH OF THE NORTH COUNTRY. WEAK SURFACE RIDGING OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL COME TO AN END THIS AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TRACKS EAST OF JAMES BAY IN CANADA. LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND UPPER LEVEL TROF PASSES NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND WILL HAVE SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA. ESPECIALLY THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND MOST NORTHERN ZONES.
309 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016 A QUIET MORNING ACROSS THE HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILING AT THE SURFACE. THIS RIDGE WILL QUICKLY EXIT TO THE EAST. AS A BROAD TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE EASTERN TENNESSEE VALLEY LATE TODAY.
AS OF 8 PM, THE SYSTEM'S COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM WESTERN BENTON COUNTY IN WASHINGTON SOUTH-SOUTHWEST TO WESTERN JEFFERSON COUNTY IN OREGON. CHANCES OF PRECIP IN THE LOWER BASIN AND IN THE LEE OF THE CASCADES LOOKS TO BE QUITE LIMITED. EXPECT TO SEE THESE WINDS SHIFT MORE SOUTHWESTERLY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT.
328 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016 327 AM CST AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND VORT STREAMER SLIDE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH SCATTERED FLURRIES ALSO SHIFTING SOUTHEAST. SOUTHWEST WINDS USHER IN WARMER AIR WITH HIGHS AROUND 40. AND THE SUN SHOULD HELP TEMPS RISE INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S.
SHORT TERM: (Today and Tonight) The elongated and positively tilted upper trof stretching from the Great Lakes into the southern Plains is producing a good deal of cloudiness and possibly a few sprinkles near the Lake of the Ozarks. This upper trof and the weak surface trof/reflection will move to the east of the CWA by midday. The low level warm advection regime will persist tonight with clouds again on the increase well in advance of the next system.
IN SPITE OF CLEARING SKIES IT WILL BE A RELATIVELY MILDER NIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TRANSITIONS TO SOUTHWESTERLY. THIS THANKS TO LOW PRESSURE PUSHING OUT OF SOUTHERN CANADA INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. MOST NOTABLY OVER THE BUFFALO RIDGE AREA. IN A TIGHTENING GRADIENT WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW TO THE NORTH AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 30S EAST OF INTERSTATE 29.
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS/STLT IMAGERY SHOWS HIGH PRES OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY WITH HIGH CLOUDS NW OF THE AREA STREAMING EAST AND MID LVL CLOUDS OVER S TX AND THE LOWER TX COAST SPREADING NE. WEAK COLD FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY BRINGING A CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS.
1231 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016 AVIATION A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IN IOWA WILL BUILD EAST TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
As another cold front continues to move south across Texas, expect gusty winds from the northwest and elevated fire weather conditions this afternoon.
By afternoon the trough axis should be east of IL causing subsidence to help this cloud cover erode somewhat. High temperatures will be up to the low and mid 40s north of I-72, and mid to upper 40s to the south as the SW winds advect milder air of Pacific origin into the area. Weak high pressure at the surface and generally southwesterly winds will both play a role in keeping the temperatures and weather rather mild across the Midwest for the remainder of the weekend.
351 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016 THE STORM SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT THE COLD FRONT AND GUSTY WINDS YESTERDAY.
FREEZING FOG OVER SIOUX FALLS CWA SLOWLY ADVECTING EASTWARD.
325 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016 SMALL CLOSED LOW SEEN IN THE ANALYSIS THIS MORNING MOVING THROUGH NORTHEAST TEXAS WITH A LINE OF SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT.
TROUGHING IS BISECTING THE CONUS FROM WEST TO EAST. A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS SWINGING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. SOME OF THE COOLER VALLEYS HAVE MANAGED TO DROP INTO THE LOWER 20S. WHILE THE RIDGETOPS REMAIN IN THE UPPER 20S. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BREAK DOWN ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. THE PASSING SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR THICKER HIGH CLOUDS TODAY. SOME SHORT WAVE RIDGING WILL WORK IN TONIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 20S IN SHELTERED VALLEYS. TO THE LOWER 30S ON THE RIDGES. A DEEPER SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL BE DIGGING ACROSS THE PLAINS AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
454 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016 VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD AS WEST WINDS BACK TO SW IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE. THE LARGE SCALE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE GOVERNED BY THE NORTHERN STREAM OF SPLIT FLOW ALOFT OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH THE TROUGH AXIS DRIFTING TO OUR EAST. SUBSIDENCE ON THE UPSTREAM SIDE OF THE TROUGH WILL BE AUGMENTED BY RIGHT FRONT EXIT REGION FORCING OVER LOWER MICHIGAN TODAY INTO TONIGHT. THIS WILL OCCUR OVER THE TOP OF A BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND THE POLAR FRONT SETTLING INTO LAKE SUPERIOR. A FEW OF THE TYPICALLY WARMER LOCATIONS COULD REACH LOWER 40S.
TEMPS HAVE MANAGED TO SLIP INTO PREDOM THE LOWER/MID 30S OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. WITH DEW PT TRENDS IN THE LOWER/MID 20S. AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA.
VFR flight category is forecast through the period with upper level ridging moving in.
No major weather concerns tonight or Saturday as the region lies under the influence of weak ridging at the surface and aloft and with a very dry air mass in place, just expecting increasing high clouds at times through the period. Saturday night lows will be right around freezing.
A FAST MOVING UPPER TROUGH WILL TRACK ALONG THE US/CANADA BORDER OVERNIGHT. IN THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN FOG AND LOW STRATUS WILL POOL IN THE LOWER TREASURE VALLEY AND PERSIST ALONG THE NORTHERN FOOTHILLS IN THE WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY. EXPECT WINDS TO REMAIN UP OVERNIGHT AND SLOWLY EXTEND FURTHER WEST IN THE LOWER TREASURE VALLEY. HAVE MADE UPDATES TO THE FORECAST TO LOWER POPS ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES AND INCREASE FOG COVERAGE IN THE LOWER TREASURE VALLEY.
329 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016 AT H5 CLOSED LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY WITH TROUGH INTO EAST TEXAS. RIDGE BUILDING FROM DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO NORTHERN PLAINS AHEAD OF A TROUGH MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT IN NEAR TERM WITH RIDGE BUILDING INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA FROM THE WEST. DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL HELP TO MIX WARMER PACIFIC AIR ALOFT. WARMER TEMPERATURES BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES TODAY THAN YESTERDAY. PARTLY CLOUDY THIS EVENING WITH MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
Light southwesterly breezes will return today and temperatures will warm into the lower 50s which is not too bad for early February standards.
LONG WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL CONUS WITH TWO SHORT WAVES AFFECTING IA WEATHER. HAS PRODUCED THE COOLER COLD TOP TEMPS INTO CENTRAL AND ERN IA BUT IS GOING TOWARD SATURATING THE COLUMN RATHER THAN SURFACE PRECIP WITH NOTED DRY AIR 500-1000M. BUT EXPECT CURRENT 1-3SM VISIBILITIES TO WANE SOMEWHAT AS THE LIFT DIMINISHES OVERALL LATER THIS EVENING AND WHAT THERE IS MAINLY APPEARS TO BE WARMER THAN - 10C. HI RES MODELS /HRRR/RAP/HI RES WINDOW CORES/ SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG OVER WRN IA AS AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH WEAKENS. WHICH MAKES SOME SENSE WITH HIGHER WEDGE OF 20S DEWPOINTS NEAR THE TROUGH.
ANY CLEARING OF THE LOW CLOUDS WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BE DIFFICULT TO COME BY. SINCE IT MAY BET HUNG UP UNDER THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION SHOWING UP ON THE SOUNDINGS. SOUNDINGS SHOW A DECENT DRY LAYER OF ABOUT 7-8KFT JUST ABOVE THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION.
THE SFC TROF EXITS NW WI BY 12Z SATURDAY AS WELL AS THE UPPER TROF. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA BEHIND THIS SYSTEM. THE NAM IS WAY TOO FAST WITH THE DEVELOPMENT/SPREADING OF LIGHT SNOW INTO THE REGION ALONG A WARM FRONT THAT IS PROGGED TO REACH INTO NE MN BY 18Z. A DIGGING UPPER TROF REACHES THE DAKOTAS. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH THE WARM FRONT TO BRING AN OPPORTUNITY FOR LIGHT SNOW OVER THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE FORECAST AREA.
341 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP FAIR CONDITIONS IN PLACE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND.
HIGH CLOUDS AND VERY LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE ALLOWED FOR A BIT OF RIDGE/VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT. WITH VALLEYS IN THE LOW TO MID 20S. WHILE RIDGES ARE CURRENTLY REPORTING IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S. DESPITE THE HIGH CLOUDS. THIS WON'T HAVE MUCH IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES AND IN FACT VALLEYS ARE ALREADY INTO THE MID 20S WITH RIDGES FALLING INTO THE LOW 30S. VALLEYS ARE ALREADY DROPPING FAST WITH VALLEYS ALREADY INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S. LOWERED TEMPERATURES A BIT IN THE VALLEYS AND ON RIDGES TO MATCH THE COLDER GUIDANCE A BIT BETTER.
/ISSUED 630 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016/ NO MAJOR CHANGES PLANNED TO THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST PACKAGE AT THIS TIME AS A COOL DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES TONIGHT. RESULTS IN LOWS GENERALLY AT OR BELOW FREEZING FOR ALL AREAS. POTENTIAL INCREASING FOR SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL KEEP THE FORECAST AREA DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS NEAR OR JUST BELOW FREEZING TONIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA.
331 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016 COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH EAST TX IS ON ITS WAY.
A FAST MOVING MINOR UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TRACKING SEWD ACOSS THE AREA EARLY THIS EVENING. THE WIND WILL BECOME SW AT ALL TERMINAL SITES BY MID MORNING SATURDAY AS A SURFACE TROF OF LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO ORGANIZE IN ERN CO AND NERN NM. WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH AN ASSOCIATED MOSTLY DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTH OF THE PANHANDLES THIS EVENING RESULTING IN CLEARING SKIES AND GRADUALLY DECREASING NORTHERLY WINDS. LEE SIDE TROUGHING IS FORECAST TO SET UP IN EASTERN NEW MEXICO ON SATURDAY WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS BETWEEN 10 TO 20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE.
747 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015 A WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
652 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015 LOWERED POPS AS THE ATMOSPHERE HAS STABILIZED WITH DRIER AIR AT THE LOWER LEVELS AS NORTHERLY FLOW PREVAILS. /ISSUED 317 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015/ WX MAP SHOWS COMBINATION COLD FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY NOW APPROACHING THE COAST. SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR EXPECTED ACROSS C LA AND INLAND SE TX WHERE LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 60S. THE UPPER LEVEL TROF ACROSS THE WESTERN U. A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE SAGGING SOUTH INTO THE GULF WATERS TONIGHT. INTENSIFYING OVER THE WEEKEND AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS.
639 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015 THE QUIET WEATHER TODAY WILL PERSIST INTO TONIGHT WITH WEAK SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE STATE AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY WITH RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY.
BUILDING RIDGING INFLUENCES SFC/ALOFT WILL BECOME THE MAJOR WX PLAYER THRU 23/06Z. AS BUILDING RIDGING INFLUENCES SFC/ALOFT BECOME THE MAJOR WX PLAYER THRU 22/24Z.
/ISSUED 341 PM CDT Thu May 21 2015/ (Tonight and Friday) The cooler/drier airmass accompanying yesterday's cold front has resulted in lull in precipitation across West Central TX. Temperatures are running around 20 degrees below climo, with readings generally in the lower 60s. These cooler temperatures and lower dewpoints have resulted in limited instability, minimizing the threat for showers and thunderstorms. The resultant isentropic upglide will maintain the low cloud deck, possibly producing patchy drizzle and/or light rain.
With a much cooler airmass in place and abundant cloud cover, temperatures remain in the 50s most locations with the exception of the far southern zones where 60s are more common. Meanwhile, the upper trough that has been camping out over the western ConUS will begin its slow progression eastward with notable height falls overspreading the region late Friday night, providing strong upper forcing for ascent through much of the weekend.
A COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED FROM NEAR PORT LAVACA TO NEAR MATHIS TO SOUTH OF HEBBRONVILLE. ECMWF AND GFS DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY ON HANDLING OF H5 S/W TROUGHS PUSHING THROUGH. 12Z ECMWF ADVECTS A S/W TROUGH THROUGH OVERNIGHT AND KEEPS MOST OF THE AREA DRY THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH CONVECTION WEAKENING BEFORE REACHING THE CWA /ASIDE FROM EARLY EVENING CONVECTION ACROSS THE EAST/. THE GFS ON THE OTHERHAND BRINGS A MUCH MORE POTENT S/W TROUGH THROUGH OVERNIGHT AND INITIATES DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS COAHUILA MX AND INTO THE BRUSH COUNTRY TOWARDS SUNRISE. SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS TONIGHT GIVEN LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WITH CLOUD COVER/RAIN IMPACTING MAX TEMPS ON FRI. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL SLOWLY MOVE OFF TO THE EAST AS STRONG UPPER TROUGH DIGS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS INTO FOUR CORNERS REGION.
CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY THICKEN UP FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THIS EVENING IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH WHICH IS CURRENTLY LIFTING ENE ACROSS NEW MEXICO.
622 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015 SUBTLE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTHWEST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WILL SLOWLY ERODE/MIGRATE BACK EAST TONIGHT AS A MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY WITH LOW TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID 40S. THE H500 RIDGE OF THE NORTHERN PORTION OF A REX BLOCK WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR ANOTHER DAY ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA RESULTING IN QUIET AND MAINLY CLEAR WEATHER TONIGHT AND MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS FRIDAY. MODELS THEN BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS FOR THE WEEKEND. FRIDAYS HIGH WILL AGAIN BE IN THE 70S EXCEPT THE SOUTHWEST WHERE INCREASING CLOUDS AND AN H8 THERMAL TROUGH WILL HOLD TEMPS TO THE UPPER 60S. THE LARGE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST AND ROCKIES TODAY IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES.
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY COOL INTO THE LOWER 40S BY MORNING. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM WELL INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 70S AT MOST LOCATIONS.
SHORT TERM MODELS SHOW ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF MEXICO AND MOVING TOWARDS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS OVERNIGHT. MAYBE HAVE ALREADY REACHED OUR HIGHS TODAY IN THE MIDDLE AND LOWER VALLEY BUT MAY GET AN HOUR OR TWO HEATING OUT WEST TO PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER 80S.
A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH OR PERHAPS AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDED ALONG THE COAST WHILE THE COLD FRONT LINGERED BEHIND EXTENDING FROM ABOUT CLEVELAND TO EAGLE LAKE TO NORTH OF VICTORIA.
EXPECTING A MOSTLY CLEAR TO CLEAR SKY TONIGHT WITH THE HIGH VIRTUALLY OVERHEAD.
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL MOVE INLAND TONIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST THIS EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. THE UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE LAKE MEAD AREA LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON BEFORE LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN/EASTERN UTAH. EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AGAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA OWING TO THE SOMEWHAT MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND LARGE- SCALE LIFT AHEAD OF THE LOW.
Winds will become light and variable to calm as the high pressure builds in. Lows tonight will be in the lower to mid 40s. With better insolation, temperatures should be much warmer than today. Highs will range from the lower to mid 70s. Lows tomorrow night will be in the lower to mid 50s.
SHORT TERM: (Through Late Tonight) High pressure centered over the Great Plains will continue moving east-southeast tonight. With the high settling down over the eastern Ozarks tonight wind should become light and variable setting up excellent radiational cooling conditions. Chilliest readings will likely be over the eastern Ozarks closest to the center of the high where lower 40s temps should be widespread. The NAM keeps the precip west of our area focused on the low level jet.
/ISSUED 317 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015/ WX MAP SHOWS COMBINATION COLD FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY NOW APPROACHING THE COAST. SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR EXPECTED ACROSS C LA AND INLAND SE TX WHERE LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 60S. THE UPPER LEVEL TROF ACROSS THE WESTERN U. A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE SAGGING SOUTH INTO THE GULF WATERS TONIGHT. INTENSIFYING OVER THE WEEKEND AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS.
STAYED ON THE LOW SIDE OF GUIDANCE WITH MINS IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S. THE HIGH WILL PUSH OFF TO THE EAST ON FRIDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH. WILL SEE HIGHS TOP OUT IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S IN MOST PLACES.
AS BUILDING RIDGING INFLUENCES SFC/ALOFT BECOME THE MAJOR WX PLAYER THRU 22/24Z.
A TRANSITORY WEAK RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK ACROSS THE ARKLATEX FOR FRIDAY.
728 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015 AVIATION SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA WITH A COLD FRONT.
LIFT IS PROVIDED BY A VORT LOBE EJECTED FROM A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. EXPECT ACCUMULATING SNOW ON THE HIGH PASSES OF SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL COLORADO OVERNIGHT. THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL HEAD NORTHEAST FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AT THE BREAK OF DAY. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. WHILE SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR WILL WRAP INTO OUR FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF THE LOW. DIFLUENCE ALOFT AHEAD OF THE LOW. HOWEVER SOME NOCTURNAL SHOWERS WILL PERSIST AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO APPROACH. BUT POSSIBLY JUST A TAD COOLER.
This area of high pressure will remain over the forecast area tonight and into the day on Friday.
915 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015 MARINE SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA WITH A COLD FRONT.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES IS EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
735 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015 A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SINK SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT.
1147 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015 THE QUIET WEATHER TODAY WILL PERSIST INTO TONIGHT WITH WEAK SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE STATE AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY WITH RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN ARIZONA TOMORROW BRINGING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION ON FRIDAY. ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE LOW WITH LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS EXTENDING THROUGH THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND.
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL BRING PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER TO THE AREA ALONG WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. AN UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS EVENING IS SPINNING OFF THE SOUTHERN CAL COAST AND THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR WEATHER IMPACTS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
940 PM PDT THU MAY 21 2015 A CLOUDY AND SHOWERY WEATHER PATTERN WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST MOVES OVER THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
SOME DAMMING OF CLOUDS AND DRIZZLE MAY OCCUR UP AGAINST THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF PA/WV/MD FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
1135 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015 THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS WAS INDICATING A TROF EMBEDDED IN CYCLONIC FLOW DROPPING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ACRS THE UPPER MS RVR VALLEY INTO THE WESTERN GRT LKS. BUT WILL BANK ON DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE LOCALLY ESPECIALLY IN THE LOWER HALF OF THE COLUMN TO KEEP THIS AREA JUST AN ENHANCED BAND OF CU AS IT DROPS SOUTHEASTWARD ACRS THE AREA THIS EVENING AND WILL NOT MENTION ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS. WITH BOTH A RIDGE ALOFT AND LLVL HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING EAST ACRS THE REGION.
GRADIENT FLOW IS WEAK ACROSS THE SERVICE AREA WITH A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CELL PERSISTING ACROSS THE REGION. A REMNANT LOWER KEYS CUMULUS LINE ACTIVATED JUST SOUTH OF THE LOWER KEYS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL LIE ACROSS THE SOUTH FLORIDA PENINSULA OVERNIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE KEYS FROM THE NORTH HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.
HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS GOING BASICALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM TYR/GGG TO THE LOWER TOLEDO BEND RESERVOIR. LATEST 00Z WRF OUTPUT DOES NOT GENERATE ANY PRECIP ACROSS THIS REGION BUT THIS WILL BE A FAVORABLE REGION FOR WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AS SOUTHERLY WINDS DO RETURN AT THE 8H LEVEL WHICH WILL OVERRUN A NE WIND IN THE LOWER LEVELS. A TRANSITORY WEAK RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK ACROSS THE ARKLATEX FOR FRIDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION FRIDAY KEEPING THINGS DRY AND UNSEASONABLE COOL WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S.
A THIGH PRESSURE GRADIENT WAS NOTED ALONG THE TN/NC BORDER WHERE WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS RANGED FROM 5 TO 15 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS IN THE MOUNTAINS. CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 50 76 55 80 / 10 0 0 0 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 48 74 53 79 / 10 0 0 0 OAK RIDGE, TN 47 75 53 79 / 10 0 0 0 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 45 72 47 77 / 10 10 0 0.
A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST WILL KEEP COOLER THAN NORMAL WEATHER FOR THE AREA ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR LIGHT SHOWERS THROUGH FRIDAY. SLIGHT WARMING CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE LOW MOVES OUT OF THE AREA. UPPER LEVEL LOW JUST WEST OF THE BIG SUR COAST IS MOVING SOUTHEAST TOWARDS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THIS LOW LIFTED THE MARINE LAYER ENOUGH TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME LIGHT SHOWERS AROUND THE SFO BAY AREA AND NEAR THE COAST. THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO SOUTHERN NEVADA ON FRIDAY WITH DRIER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW SETTLING OVER THE AREA BEHIND THE LOW.
AN UNSEASONABLY CHILLY DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL ALSO BE BUILDING OVER THE MS RIVER VALLEY. A LARGE SCALE MID LEVEL TROF WILL BE IN THE PROGRESS OF DIGGING THROUGH THE SWRN CONUS. SEVERAL SHRTWV IMPULSES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TROF AND LIFT OUT TO THE NE. A SIGNIFICANT RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE SERN CONUS. THE PAH FORECAST AREA WILL BE INITIALLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF RIDGING ALOFT.