Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
This will be a cold rain, but rain it shall stay, with temperatures staying above freezing overnight including the higher elevations. Weak cold front over Missouri won't quite make it here thanks to a quick return to zonal flow behind tonight's system.
High pressure along the east coast that has been giving us our beautiful weather is currently being pushed in the Atlantic as our next front starts to enter the southeast. The higher rain shower chances looks to start in the afternoon and last through the much of the overnight period. As we start our next work week skies will be clearing and cooler air will return. High pressure to our north will push off the east coast today as are next front pushes are way.
Southwesterly flow will develop in advance of the trough allowing for deep layer moisture to slowly surge northward but with a more positive tilt, deep moisture advection will be weak. By late this afternoon and evening, clouds will begin to move in ahead of an approaching cold front.
138 PM CST Sat Dec 19 2020 In the wake of a weak cold front that moved through the region, temperatures this afternoon are slightly cooler, with highs expected to top out close to normal in the mid 50s north to 60s south.
Isolated light showers should develop later in the day as the low level moisture slowly increases. Coupled with a decrease in the low level southerly flow, there will be a chance for patchy fog late tonight.
1058 AM CST Sat Dec 19 2020 (Today and tonight) An upper level low is currently moving east through TX early this morning. A cold front is also moving south through our forecast area, turning winds to the north, and bringing cooler/drier air south. Low clouds, along with some patchy fog, has developed south of the front in the warmer more humid air mass. As the upper level trough moves east, and the front interacts with deeper moisture in our southeastern counties, a few showers will be possible, mainly east of a Brownwood to Sonora line. Temperatures will be a few degrees cooler today with highs mainly in the mid/upper 50s, although a few locations could see highs around 60. Tonight, lows will be much cooler than current temperatures with most locations dropping to around freezing under clear skies and light winds.
1054 AM EST Sat Dec 19 2020 Current surface analysis depicts a strong surface dome of high pressure centered just east of Northern Virginia.
255 PM CST Sat Dec 19 2020 Rain ongoing across most of the Mid-South due to an approaching cold front. A ridge builds in for the beginning of the work week.
1141 AM CST Sat Dec 19 2020 Quiet and mild will be the story through this last weekend of astronomical Autumn, with the mild more noticeable on Sunday than today in our eastern areas, which today will still be under the influence of departing cool high pressure. Readings expected to stabilize or even rise a little through the overnight, as winds shift to westerly with passing weak warm front. The warming will lead to a warmer Sunday, despite some increasing mid-high clouds ahead of a broad wave approaching the region.
The week will start fairly quiet as upper flow remains out of the northwest with a ridge building across the southwestern CONUS. The upper ridge will quickly deamplify as it moves eastward thanks to an upper trough moving into the Pacific Northwest.
247 PM EST Sat Dec 19 2020 High pressure over the area looses its grip on the region as it slides off the Mid-Atlantic coast later this evening. Temps across the area tonight will bottom out in the 30s and 40s with some near freezing temps expected across the NE GA mountains. Most areas across the state will see rain but with temps getting down into the lower 30s in the NE we will see a wintry mix by morning. The best locations of any accumulations will be across the higher elevations of the NE Georgia mountains.
West and southwesterly surface flow will advect some warmer air into the region with High temperatures responding nicely.
TD Chattanooga Airport, TN 39 50 37 55 35 / 50 40 10 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 36 48 37 52 34 / 40 30 20 0 10 Oak Ridge, TN 36 46 35 52 33 / 50 30 10 0 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 33 47 36 49 32 / 30 30 20 10 20.
259 PM CST Sat Dec 19 2020 An upper level trough is pushing through the region this afternoon, all the rain has pushed well off to the east. Highs will warm into the lower 50s Sunday afternoon.
1151 AM CST Sat Dec 19 2020 18Z 19DEC20 TAFs Ceilings continually lowering, winds picking up, and shower activity increasing ahead and along of a cold front moving into the area.
High temperatures will be pretty pleasant for mid December on Sunday with highs ranging from the upper 30s over northeast Iowa to the lower 30s across northcentral Wisconsin.
305 PM EST Sat Dec 19 2020 A 1030 mb dome of high pressure centered in the Mid-Atlantic will continue to dominate the sensible weather for this weekend. The 12z sounding at KEY highlighted a substantial temperature inversion in the low-levels between 900 and 800 mb. As high pressure moves offshore on Sunday and winds gradually veer easterly, a slight increase in moisture brings rain chances up to slight on Sunday.
Inverted trough offshore will maintain a ne flow tonight with a slight chance of a shower along the coast. Increased low level moisture will mean warmer overnight temperatures with a chance of inland fog developing late tonight. A mid-level trough over the southern Plains this afternoon will push east bringing an increase in rain chances on Sunday.
140 PM CST Sat Dec 19 2020 In the wake of a weak cold front that moved through the region, temperatures this afternoon are slightly cooler, with highs expected to top out close to normal in the mid 50s north to 60s south.
A weak cold front will move through the region tonight. The axis of the upper-level trough that drove it through the area will be to our east of the area by this afternoon.
244 PM CST Sat Dec 19 2020 Cool high pressure will shift east with a trough of low pressure expected to move through tonight.
255 PM CST Sat Dec 19 2020 18Z surface data has the cold front running roughly the Straits of Mackinac into southeast Missouri.
Low level moisture trapped in the valleys, combined with clear skies and light winds, has brought a return of the low stratus decks with patchy fog, locally dense, and sublimation snow showers. Nothing significant as far as accumulation, but could see some icy conditions on bridges. The remainder of the forecast area is expected to be fairly quiet once we burn off the low stratus decks trapped withing the valleys.
Upper level ridging will lead to a warming trend extending into the first half of the work week.
1127 AM CST Sat Dec 19 2020 (Today and tonight) Upper low will swing through northern Texas and southern Oklahoma this morning as surface front moves out of southeast Oklahoma. Even with abundant sunshine, temperatures will be a few degrees cooler today behind the front.
142 PM MST Sat Dec 19 2020 High pressure will build across the Desert Southwest over the next few days, resulting in a warming trend.
A sfc trof will fragment tonight and move eastward across the state. Areas that still have remaining snowpack will also see a few degrees cooler readings compared to the bare ground areas. For Sunday, another weak lee sfc trof will redevelop along the high plains of Colorado.
The aforementioned wind shift/cold front will have little effect on temps, as surface winds are forecast to return to the south/southwest rather quickly (on Sun) ahead of another (weak) ripple in the mid level flow. The warmest day is expected to be Mon, with highs in the lower to middle 50s after lows near freezing.
Despite the weak cold frontal passage, well above normal temperatures are expected tomorrow with downslope flow to help enhance our afternoon highs.
Warmer air will advect in from the west overnight, with highs Sunday reaching the upper 40s to mid 50s.
435 PM MST Sat Dec 19 2020 Lingering northwest flow behind the departing trough in continuing to bring high clouds overhead. Stratus and fog lingered in the lower valleys till late morning with the Uinta Basin holding on a bit longer, but the faster upper flow is allowing some of the stratus to erode. Northwest flow will also favor upslope snow across the Elkheads and Park Range in northwest Colorado, where 2 to 6 inches are possible, especially at the higher peaks.
515 PM CST Sat Dec 19 2020 High pressure covered the forecast area this afternoon. The high will move east and dissolve as an area of low pressure moves into northwest Ontario tonight. A cold front slowly moves across the area on Sunday. Model variability begins at this time with the QPF/snow amounts, location, as well as the location of the low center.
In addition, the high winds over the mountains could result in the reduction of visibility due to blowing snow. Winds will continue overnight and that combined with the downsloping influence will keep lows slightly more mild then previous evenings with lows in the 20s across the eastern plains and teens in the high country.
/issued 140 PM CST Sat Dec 19 2020/ In the wake of a weak cold front that moved through the region, temperatures this afternoon are slightly cooler, with highs expected to top out close to normal in the mid 50s north to 60s south.
/issued 546 PM CST Sat Dec 19 2020/ Rain ongoing across most of the Mid-South due to an approaching cold front. A ridge builds in for the beginning of the work week.
Upstream upper trough will continue to shift south across the region late this afternoon into the evening, though not expected to really impact the area. Increasing flow aloft will assist with strengthening winds/gusts tonight into Sunday, mainly for the higher terrain and especially across the central mountains.
Valleys that become stable may see mixed precipitation and even some freezing rain, but most places should be warm enough to keep ice from developing. Some of the lower elevations, like the Camas Prairie in Idaho and north-south oriented valleys in western Montana could see gusty southerly winds develop overnight.
Tranquil weather prevails across interior NorCal this weekend as high pressure remains in control. Similar temperature readings are expected on Sunday, except for slightly warmer temperatures in the northern Sac Valley and over the mountains. Meanwhile, overnight temperatures will remain on the chilly side over the next few days, with Valley lows ranging from the low to mid 30s.
High pressure will build across the Desert Southwest over the next few days, resulting in a warming trend.
OHX sounding release is revealing freezing levels in the 6kt to 7kft range.
Broad-scale upper trough, with a couple of embedded vortmaxes noted on latest water vapor imagery, will move through the region tonight. This band is helping to moisten the low levels for more waves to provide likely to categorical rain chances tonight. Temperatures won't stray too much during the daytime hours, likely keeping in the low to mid 40s.
/issued 255 PM CST Sat Dec 19 2020/ Rain ongoing across most of the Mid-South due to an approaching cold front. A ridge builds in for the beginning of the work week.
A weak cold front will pass through the region tonight with light north winds to follow. The week will start fairly quiet as upper flow remains out of the northwest with a ridge building across the southwestern CONUS. The upper ridge will quickly deamplify as it moves eastward thanks to an upper trough moving into the Pacific Northwest.
18Z surface data has the cold front running roughly the Straits of Mackinac into southeast Missouri.
Skies are continuing to quickly clear as the cold front continues to push farther away into Arkansas.
448 PM CST Sat Dec 19 2020 Cool high pressure will shift east with a trough of low pressure expected to move through tonight.
817 PM EST Sat Dec 19 2020 High pressure will continue across the area tonight, with an area of low pressure moving east across the northern Gulf of Mexico. Showers and a storm or two will then be possible on Sunday as this area of low pressure moves across north Florida and the associated cold front with it pushes through the area Sunday night.
145 PM PST Sat Dec 19 2020 With high pressure in control, temperature inversions will continue the next few nights with lows in the teens and single digits in the colder valleys.
An upper level trough is pushing through the region this afternoon, all the rain has pushed well off to the east. Highs will warm into the lower 50s Sunday afternoon.
High pressure will expand across the area Sunday, and remain in place early in the upcoming week.
242 PM MST Sat Dec 19 2020 Lingering northwest flow behind the departing trough in continuing to bring high clouds overhead. Stratus and fog lingered in the lower valleys till late morning with the Uinta Basin holding on a bit longer, but the faster upper flow is allowing some of the stratus to erode. Northwest flow will also favor upslope snow across the Elkheads and Park Range in northwest Colorado, where 2 to 6 inches are possible, especially at the higher peaks.
1058 PM CST Sat Dec 19 2020 High pressure covered the forecast area this afternoon. The high will move east and dissolve as an area of low pressure moves into northwest Ontario tonight. A cold front slowly moves across the area on Sunday. Model variability begins at this time with the QPF/snow amounts, location, as well as the location of the low center.
Lows tonight will fall into the low to mid 40s for most locations.
337 AM EST Sun Dec 20 2020 Overnight temperatures have trended much warmer than previously forecast, so have removed nearly all mention of wintry precip across far northeastern Georgia.
This second trough will move east of the Mississippi River late Sunday into Sunday evening. With the low level circulation becoming a closed low, a weakly organized surface warm front forms well south of the coast ahead of the surface circulation, with isentropic upglide enhancement to the rain over the southern half of the land portion of the forecast area. With the weak nature of the trailing cold front with this first trough, helped by the limited influx of cooler air due to the second upper trough being hot on it's heels, temperatures around to a bit below seasonal norms are expected.
Behind this boundary will be a modified downslope airmass, with warmer temps expected across much of the area today.
1016 PM MST Sat Dec 19 2020 Lingering northwest flow behind the departing trough in continuing to bring high clouds overhead. Stratus and fog lingered in the lower valleys till late morning with the Uinta Basin holding on a bit longer, but the faster upper flow is allowing some of the stratus to erode. Northwest flow will also favor upslope snow across the Elkheads and Park Range in northwest Colorado, where 2 to 6 inches are possible, especially at the higher peaks.
934 PM CST Sat Dec 19 2020 High pressure covered the forecast area this afternoon. The high will move east and dissolve as an area of low pressure moves into northwest Ontario tonight. A cold front slowly moves across the area on Sunday. Model variability begins at this time with the QPF/snow amounts, location, as well as the location of the low center.
1041 PM CST Sat Dec 19 2020 Cool high pressure will shift east with a trough of low pressure expected to move through tonight.
Other than a few high clouds drifting over the CWA overnite, radiational cooling will allow temps to drop into the low 30s where some frost may form as well. JHM Tranquil weather prevails across interior NorCal this weekend as high pressure remains in control. Similar temperature readings are expected on Sunday, except for slightly warmer temperatures in the northern Sac Valley and over the mountains. Meanwhile, overnight temperatures will remain on the chilly side over the next few days, with Valley lows ranging from the low to mid 30s.
1020 PM EST Sat Dec 19 2020 Currently - A large high pressure system is aligned off the Atlantic coast, resulting in winds trying to veer this evening. This increasingly moderating maritime flow is bringing in warmer temperatures and higher dew points. Skies along the island chain are mostly clear, but there is a substantial amount of stratocumulus over the warmer Florida Straits. Short Term Update - The previously mentioned high pressure system will continue to migrate eastwards overnight, trailing a broad ridge into Florida. Rain chances will remain slim to none overnight due to the weakening flow and background ridging. Moisture will be increasing through the lower levels due to good veering. A large high pressure system off the Atlantic coast will migrate eastwards overnight, trailing a broad ridge into Florida.
High pressure will expand across the area Sunday and remain in place early to the upcoming week.
Warmer air aloft associated with an atmospheric river impacting the West Coast will continue to push into the region through Sunday. Colder mountain valleys could see a brief period of freezing rain before the cold air mixes out.
Skies will remain mainly clear through the short term with light southwesterly winds overnight less than 10mph before turning more northwesterly before sunrise due to a weak mid level trough propagating through the northwest flow.
Still looking at minor, light freezing precip or sleet late night when temperatures bottom out overnight. DGS Chattanooga Airport, TN 50 37 55 36 54 / 40 10 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 48 36 53 34 50 / 30 20 0 10 0 Oak Ridge, TN 47 34 52 33 51 / 30 10 0 10 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 46 35 49 33 46 / 30 20 10 20 0.
227 AM CST Sun Dec 20 2020 Key Message: Warmer than normal temperatures and dry weather to start the week, turning colder later in the week.
Overall, the upper air pattern remains active with split flow aloft as a baroclinic wave works through the eastern CONUS and a Pacific ridge works into the northwestern CONUS.
356 AM CST Sun Dec 20 2020 Low pressure will move through North Dakota today. On the southern edge of the low, this forecast area will see increasing westerly winds. Cooler, but still warmer than average, highs are anticipated for Monday as cold air advection in the wake of the clipper remains over the east during the morning. Ridging will build back in through the day with high pressure at the sfc. There is reasonable agreement among models and ensembles, minus the GFS, with the evolution and track of a low pressure system midweek.
The fog is expected to dissipate shortly after sunrise as high pressure settles across the region.
952 AM EST Sun Dec 20 2020 A coastal trough and area of low pressure will bring rain to the eastern Carolinas today into Monday.
Optimal radiational cooling tonight mean lows could be a few degrees cooler than last night, but still in the upper 20s to mid 30s. Upper level ridging begins to build in during the late afternoon from the west as surface winds turn southwesterly.
425 AM MST Sun Dec 20 2020 A fast northwesterly flow aloft prevailed between a Plains trough and upstream ridge with a 140-150kt 250mb jet streaking east along the Canadian border.
Tended toward the warmest GFS MOS guidance for highs from the low 50s to near 55 area wide. A cold front pushes through tonight, bringing cooler H85 temperatures on Monday of near 2C in the northeast, while still from 5-7C across the west and southwest.
426 AM MST Sun Dec 20 2020 Made the decision this morning to upgrade the High Wind Watch to a High Wind Warning, excluding our northern tier zones.
BYX radar is highlighting widely scattered showers across the Straits of Florida and Hawk Channel south and west of the Lower Keys. These showers may hold together to bring portions of the Lower Keys a passing shower or two through the early afternoon. An area of low pressure south of Louisiana in the northern Gulf of Mexico will continue to pivot eastward today. The associated cold front will push through the Keys on Monday morning.
352 AM CST Sun Dec 20 2020 Overall, the upper air pattern remains active with split flow aloft as a baroclinic wave works through the eastern CONUS and a Pacific ridge works into the northwestern CONUS.
353 AM MST Sun Dec 20 2020 A fast northwesterly flow aloft prevailed between a Plains trough and upstream ridge with a 140-150kt 250mb jet streaking east along the Canadian border.
604 AM EST Sun Dec 20 2020 A coastal trough and area of low pressure will bring rain to the eastern Carolinas today into Monday.
High pressure aloft to the west of Utah will maintain a moist west to northwest flow aloft over northern Utah through early Monday.
High pressure will continued to build in today with skies clearing in earnest in the afternoon.
Highs this afternoon will be slightly above seasonal normals, in the low to mid 60s. Expect overnight low temperatures in the low to mid 30s, although a few low lying areas may drop into the upper 20s.
Tonight and Monday: Low pressure and a potent mid level wave approach from the northwest and bring decent lift later tonight into Monday morning.
The low to our south should slowly head to the NE, moving across northern Florida/southern Georgia coast tomorrow night. High temperatures should warm into the mid 50s, a touch above seasonable norms in the lower 50s. A lack of clouds should result in seasonable cold lows Mon night in the low/mid 30s.
High pressure will bring cloudy skies today but conditions will continue to be mainly dry through Monday.
Fast moving cold front could bring light snow showers north of highway 50 Monday night, but the next chance for significant precipitation looks to be Christmas weekend. Mostly clear skies in far western Nevada and the Sierra will continue to allow strong temperature inversions with well below freezing temperatures in most valleys temperatures currently (3 AM), and upper 30s along the central Sierra ridges. We'll see one more night of strong inversions before an incoming cold front brings cooling aloft. Another fast moving cold front is forecast to move through northern Nevada on Monday night.
421 AM EST Sun Dec 20 2020 Two cold fronts will affect the Keys during the week ahead.
Elsewhere, dry conditions are expected through Monday with passing high clouds (moving from north to south) with temperatures slowly moderating as we see the arrival of weak ridging sliding in. Passing ridge axis will finally shutdown the persistent northwesterly flow that has been bringing waves of light snow showers to the northern mountains.
An upper level ridge of high pressure over the western states will gradually slide eastward and should be east of the forecast area by late Monday night.
/Issued 337 AM EST Sun Dec 20 2020/ Overnight temperatures have trended much warmer than previously forecast, so have removed nearly all mention of wintry precip across far northeastern Georgia. By Monday morning, the mid-level trough will have swept through the area, helping to clear the remaining moisture as high pressure builds in at the surface. With less precipitation and cloud cover expected on Monday, temperatures are forecast to be slightly warmer than today with highs in the 40s in the mountains, with 50s and 60s elsewhere.
/issued 309 AM CST Sun Dec 20 2020/ Upper ridge centered along the CA coast this morning will slide east the next couple of days as the next upper trough comes ashore the West Coast late Monday.
Today Through Monday Night National mosaic radar imagery depicts an expansive complex of showers moving into the Mid-Atlantic beneath an upper level trough.
309 AM CST Sun Dec 20 2020 Upper ridge centered along the CA coast this morning will slide east the next couple of days as the next upper trough comes ashore the West Coast late Monday.
526 AM CST Sun Dec 20 2020 Low pressure will move through North Dakota today. On the southern edge of the low, this forecast area will see increasing westerly winds. Cooler, but still warmer than average, highs are anticipated for Monday as cold air advection in the wake of the clipper remains over the east during the morning. Ridging will build back in through the day with high pressure at the sfc. There is reasonable agreement among models and ensembles, minus the GFS, with the evolution and track of a low pressure system midweek.
A warm front and rising snow levels will then occur Monday ahead of our region's next weather system.