Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Coastal Trof is setting up over the Atlc Coastal Waters with a few showers there, while the cool/moist N-NE flow over the land areas will set the stage for low clouds and patchy fog development tonight. Will depend on position of coastal trof and how much the N-NE winds weaken towards morning, for now they seem to holding in the 5-10 mph range and expected to decrease to around 5 mph towards morning, while any decrease to near calm winds will support some local dense fog. Temps should push to near 80 degrees over inland areas while sea breeze along the coast will hold max temps in the lower/middle 70s. Coastal Trof setting up over the offshore waters and will continue at least N-NE winds 10-15 knots across the local waters with seas lingering in the 4-6 ft range tonight with SCEC headlines.
1038 PM CDT Sat Mar 31 2018 Arctic high pressure has settled over the area today with very cold air persisting through the work week. As the center of the high pressure moves overhead, a very chilly Easter morning is expected.
Temperatures will be a little cooler with snow and not much sunshine.
Surface analysis this evening places a cold front from the Eastern Great Lakes back through Eastern Missouri, Northwest Arkansas, Oklahoma, and into Texas. the aforementioned cold front is expected to slowly drop into the Mid-South overnight into Sunday morning. A cold front currently extends from northeast Illinois through southeast Kansas and into the Texas panhandle. Temperatures will be seasonably mild tonight with lows from the lower 40s to lower 50s. On Sunday, the cold front will start to slow down and remain over the forecast area bringing more showers to region.
Scattered showers/thunderstorms have developed across portions of NE OK/NW AR this evening ahead of cold front, which has pushed south of I-44.
743 PM EDT Sat Mar 31 2018 A cold front is currently draped across South Florida, bringing mainly cloudy conditions with a few showers and isolated thunderstorms.
724 PM EDT Sat Mar 31 2018 A ridge of high pressure will move through the area from the west tonight then slide offshore Sunday.
955 PM CDT Sat Mar 31 2018 Surface map has the deep low pressure system that gave the area rain and snow overnight into today now over Lake Huron. Blustery and colder this afternoon in the wake of the low with temperatures as of 1 PM ranging from the upper 20s to lower 40s. For tonight, high pressure will build into the region from the central Canadian Provinces/Northern Plains. High pressure begins to shift east of the area Sunday night as low pressure organizes on the leeside of the central Rocky Mountains.
A cold front currently extends from northeast Illinois through southeast Kansas and into the Texas panhandle. Temperatures will be seasonably mild tonight with lows from the lower 40s to lower 50s. On Sunday, the cold front will start to slow down and remain over the forecast area bringing more showers to region.
641 PM CDT Sat Mar 31 2018 Cold high pressure builds tonight and Sunday with dry conditions expected. Mainly clear skies were found for much of the Northland this afternoon as high pressure builds into the region. Have nudged lows a bit cooler tonight, but probably still too warm in some spots.
Water vapor shows a short wave trough moving southeast around the upper low over western Hudson Bay. Sunday will be sunny and a tad warmer, but still below average.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 47 72 52 75 / 10 10 20 20 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 47 67 50 68 / 10 20 30 20 Oak Ridge, TN 47 65 49 67 / 20 40 40 20 Tri Cities Airport, TN 43 63 47 63 / 10 40 40 30.
708 PM MDT Sat Mar 31 2018 Evening Update (7pm MDT): Only tweaks to the forecast for the coming 24 hour period are to MaxT/MinT and winds to account for the building high pressure over the region. Bigelbach PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: The cold front that pushed through Northeast Montana remains well to the southwest. With an upper ridge off to the west, the northwest flow aloft will continue tonight.
Really no reflection at the surface in terms of low pressure, so as high pressure builds into the region, winds will not be a factor.
Temps have settled into the low 60s thus far with a few locations already down into the upper 50s as high pressure ridging from the east influences conditions over the region.
851 PM CDT Sat Mar 31 2018 Scattered showers and a few storms will continue to develop ahead of a cold front this evening and overnight. A cold front will bring much colder temperatures for tomorrow along with the possibility of some drizzle in the morning, and again tomorrow night. Temperatures should be cold enough tomorrow night for some light freezing drizzle, but with temperatures at or only barely below freezing and warm surfaces, significant impacts are not expected.
Cold frontal boundary to press southward overnight.
Central Marshall county should remain a bit warmer though due to effects of Lake Guntersville (around 45 degrees). Mainly adjusted lows down in southeastern counties into the lower to mid 40s. Those with less cloud cover will reach the lower 70s.
1051 PM CDT Sat Mar 31 2018 Early afternoon satellite showed the system responsible for last night's snow quickly developing in to a mature mid-latitude cyclone.
1018 PM EDT Sat Mar 31 2018 A ridge of high pressure will move through the area from the west tonight then slide offshore Sunday.
1026 PM EDT Sat Mar 31 2018 There have been only isolated light showers on KBYX Doppler radar this evening, with the most recent weakening showers favoring the Gulf waters well offshore from Mainland Monroe county and west of the Lower Keys. There is more moisture tonight than last night, but that difference is in the higher levels.
644 PM CDT Sat Mar 31 2018 Clouds will continue to decrease this evening into tonight as high pressure builds into the area. VFR conditions are then expected through Sunday as high pressure moves into the region.
It will be a mild night with lows bottoming out in the lower to mid 60s. Temperatures on Sunday will run above normal with highs climbing into the lower to mid 80s over inland locations during the afternoon, with slightly cooler readings along the coast due to the sea breeze. This front will gradually wash out through Sunday as high pressure to the north sinks south toward the waters.
This patchy fog should burn off by mid morning, as day time heating brings high temperatures back up into the low 80s for your Sunday.
This is giving SE TX/SW LA weak return flow, with the cooler over C and SC LA.
Low level ridging centered just to our south will lead to generally weak southerly flow for the early part of this week.
903 PM EDT Sat Mar 31 2018 Light rain and a few late snow showers will accompany a cold front across the region tonight. Dry and cooler conditions can be expected through much of Sunday, but low pressure will bring snow on Sunday night. Otherwise, precip chances are still expected to increase tonight as a jet streak crosses the Great Lakes and increases deformation above the encroaching cold front. resulting in dry and cooler than average weather. particularly over the ridge counties.
/issued 230 PM EDT Sat Mar 31 2018/ High pressure will push off to the south and east overnight tonight.
Those with less cloud cover will reach the lower 70s.
Windy/showery weather will remain the primary focus for the remainder of the afternoon into this evening as dynamic/compact low pressure system tracks through the Northern Great Lakes and forces a trailing cold front through the area. Showers, likely a bit more intense along the actual cold front 21-01z, will have the potential to mix down brief advisory level gusts (40-45 mph) through the early evening.
A cold front moved through the area during the afternoon hours. Temperatures ahead of the front in western Illinois reached the low 60s. The lowest daytime temperatures are forecast for the south, near or slightly below freezing, with readings in the mid to upper 30s to the north. Arctic high pressure will fill in the void post these systems and bring with it cooler than normal temperatures to the area.
/issued 233 PM EDT Sat Mar 31 2018/ Weak cold front stalled across South Florida between Fort Myers and Naples with limited shower activity. This combined with temperatures in the lower 80s and dew points of 65 to 70 will lead to a 30-40% chance of showers this afternoon ending early this evening. Weak cold front stalls and washes out tonight and Sunday. Warm and dry conditions will prevail through the first half of the work week as high pressure will dominate out weather.
However, some low ceilings could develop across KABI on Sunday morning in association with a cold front passing through the Big Country. However, should the cold front push further south into the Concho Valley and Heartland, some lowered ceilings would be possible further south at KSJT as well. A cold front is slowly drifting south through the Texas Panhandle and western Oklahoma. It is still uncertain how far south this front will end up, but for Sunday, it is expected to at least move as far south as the Interstate 20 corridor, resulting in cooler temperatures for most of the Big Country. Temperatures in Haskell and Throckmorton counties may only warm into the mid 50s, possibly cooler, with cloud cover also following the front as it moves south. 20 (Sunday night through Saturday) Cold front moves through Sunday night.
507 PM MDT Sat Mar 31 2018 Water vapor continues to show long wave trof covering much of the CONUS.
This feature is forecast to move a bit further northward overnight across the Treasure Coast with some inverted troughiness along the Space and Treasure coasts promoting some potential convergence here, thus will leave a small threat for showers along the immediate coast, though expect most areas to remain dry. Generally light N/NE flow over land areas overnight, except an easterly component along the Treasure Coast in association with the coastal trough. H100-H85 flow bcmg S/SE as an inverted trof just off the coast works its way up the FL Peninsula. Weak inverted trough along the Treasure Coast and adjacent Atlc. Winds a bit tricky depending on trough's precise location with N/NE winds north of this feature (generally near Brevard coast and northward) and winds becoming E/ESE south and east of it across the local waters overnight.
/Tonight through Sunday/ Cold front has pushed through the state with much colder air moving in behind the front. Otherwise as high pressure builds in quickly across the state should see winds lose their gustiness overnight.
Upper level ridging currently over the west coast will shift eastward toward the region, but flatten out substantially by the time it moves through the central part of the country. Lows drop into the low to mid 60s. Winds will be stronger, especially in the southern coastal bend where gusts up to 30 mph are possible as low pressure deepens weather of the region, interacting with the ridge over the Gulf of Mexico. Highs should range from the mid 80s east to the low 90s west.
Water vapor imagery indicated a relatively strong short wave trough over western Oregon with an strong fetch of Pacific moisture from central California into Wyoming. There were also indications of weak short wave troughing over central Wyoming. Over the local forecast area, the low levels are very dry below about 7000 feet.
Temperatures at or just below normal for this time of the year tonight, then slightly warmer than normal on Sunday.
Cold high pressure from Alberta will move quickly south and east this evening, arriving in Southeast Nebraska by Sunday morning, and delivering very cold temperatures to Western Kansas overnight and into Easter Sunday. While the majority of meaningful snowfall/precipitation chances overnight/into Sunday morning will occur in those areas, there is enough isentropic lift and low level moistening over western Kansas that soundings show the chance for light freezing drizzle (just drizzle toward the Oklahoma border) Sunday morning into early Sunday afternoon. Sunday night, the cool high pressure begins to move east into the Great Lakes region, and warm air advection begins as lee cyclogenesis develops in Eastern Colorado.
Winds increased due to the tight surface pressure gradient west of the low but they should gradually decrease later in the night.
A cold front is slowly pushing its way across the terminals this evening turning winds northeast to east and increasing speeds to around 15 knots. A cold front was slowly moving through the southern Texas Panhandle this afternoon. However, cooler air and low stratus were lagging well behind the initial wind shift. But the cooler air and low status will make their way southward overnight tonight.
820 PM EDT Sat Mar 31 2018 Aviation A deepening area of low pressure will pull away from lower Michigan tonight.
Cold front is near Interstate 44 corridor and will continue southward overnight. /Issued 339 PM CDT Sat Mar 31 2018/ Strong cold front continues to plunge south across the central plains this afternoon, with the initial wind shift just about to move into northeast OK, and colder air lagging behind in northern KS. Temperatures across central NE have struggled to rise above freezing today even with partly sunny skies, which speaks to the overall strength of this airmass. Weak upglide over the cold air will persist with potential for some light freezing rain, possibly as far south as US 412.
High pressure centered from southern Alberta through northeastern MT continues to sink southeast, weakening the tight pressure gradient.
1023 PM MDT Sat Mar 31 2018 Water vapor continues to show long wave trof covering much of the CONUS.
636 PM CDT Sat Mar 31 2018 Arctic high pressure has settled over the area today with very cold air persisting through the work week. As the center of the high pressure moves overhead, a very chilly Easter morning is expected.
709 PM CDT Sat Mar 31 2018 Early afternoon satellite showed the system responsible for last night's snow quickly developing in to a mature mid-latitude cyclone.
Models have backed off on the low cloud potential for Central GA tonight. /issued 230 PM EDT Sat Mar 31 2018/ High pressure will push off to the south and east overnight tonight.
1226 AM EDT Mon Sep 25 2017 High pressure will maintain dry and warm weather into mid week. Cirrus is starting to advance from the south, which seems to be upper level moisture feeding off of Maria that is being sandwiched between the ridge dominating just to our northeast and a weak upper low along the Gulf of Mexico coast.
Upper low continues to spin over the area this afternoon. The upper low opens up on Monday as it drifts west, maintaining the chances for scattered showers and thunderstorms.
Did hold off on bringing temperatures up too much Monday given the higher cloud potential.
This is a couple of degrees cooler than yesterday.
As for temperatures, highs today are expected to range from the low 70s across west central Kansas to upper 80s across central and south central Kansas. The cold front moving across the Central Plains is projected to push further southeast toward the Ark-La-Tex Region while cooler and drier air filters southward into the high plains. Otherwise, the cooler/drier air mass moving into the high plains in wake of the frontal passage from the past weekend will limit precip chances to areas of western Kansas further north. As the cold front starts to move through the region tomorrow morning, thunderstorms near all terminals will be possible after ~11Z.
/issued 308 PM EDT Sun Sep 24 2017/ Quiet fcst period continues with dry and abnormally warm airmass due to amplified ridging and likely even some aided subsidence from Hurricane Maria off the southeast coast.
Tuesday will see the return of sunny skies and warming temperatures as the upper level ridge builds further inland.
Mainly VFR expected next 24-hours as a trough aloft exits slowly to the east and a high pressure ridge builds-in from the west, resulting in northwesterly to northerly flow aloft. The upper level trough over the western US will begin to edge eastward over the next couple of days, but it won't be a quick process.
00 UTC surface analysis shows an area of high pressure across Pennsylvania and Hurricane Maria well off the coast of the southeast. It would not at all be surprising with the upper trough remaining in place across the Central Gulf Coast States to see some redevelopment of showers and thunderstorms over the waters tonight. An upper level low situated near the central Gulf coast tomorrow morning will slide eastward and over Florida on Tuesday. With the upper low shifting eastward on Tuesday and winds becoming northerly, drier air will filter in with PW values dropping to 1.
706 PM CDT Sun Sep 24 2017 A closed upper low was located in northeast Utah this afternoon. The cold front is now east of the forecast area. As the upper low lifts into central Wyoming overnight, two distinct disturbance will move through the forecast area. On Monday, The upper trough will lift into the western Dakotas and Nebraska panhandle. The upper trough axis will swing across western Nebraska Monday night, providing one last shot for showers. The highest chance will be in the evening from near 60 percent east of Broken Bow through Atkinson, and 30 to 50 percent to the west.
An upper level ridge of high pressure will continue to slowly build in from the west. There will be some considerable high and mid level clouds spilling over the ridge overnight and Monday and perhaps a few light showers over the highest elevations, otherwise dry. Temperatures will be a little warmer overnight due to the increased cloud cover.
For those who enjoy the heat, you have one more day before reality returns to northeast WI autumnal weather! The 19z MSAS surface analysis showed high pressure situated over the eastern Great Lakes. Subtle changes begin to occur tonight as the upper ridge over the eastern CONUS slides a bit eastward, thereby allowing the quasi- stationary front over the Upper MS Valley to edge toward the WI border by 12z Monday. Min temperatures to be in the lower 60s north, middle 60s south.
Increased dew point values in the upper 60s will send heat indices into the low to mid 90 degree range. Deep moisture advection across the Southern to Central Plains areas ahead of a deepening upper trough has fueled widespread showers/storms across much of western Kansas and central Nebraska. This activity should remain outside the local area this afternoon as broad ridging lifts north over the eastern CONUS, steering precipitation generally along a southwest to northeast axis along central Kansas and southeastern Nebraska. Initially, the eastward propagating upper jet ahead of the trough will provide broad-scale ascent for scattered storms through much of Monday. It's not until Monday night through Tuesday that the associated cold front will push through the area and provide sufficient ascent for widespread showers and storms.
A cut-off low apparent in multi-spectral satellite imagery and model analyses/progs is expected to continue to retrograde westward into the lower Mississippi Valley and become highly sheared in a S-N fashion into Tuesday. In fact, a broad mid/upper level ridge centered currently over New England is expected to build gradually southward, with upper level ridging developing over the TN Valley perhaps on Monday and especially on Tuesday.
Upper trough still prevails overhead, though with some clearing noted in the afternoon. Warmer temperatures with somewhat less cloud cover. Main trough aloft moves off to our east, though will still likely see some cloud cover, with slow clearing from west to east. The models are in good agreement at showing an upper low developing in the vicinity of Arizona on Tuesday night after splitting off from the main upper level flow.
We will also remain warm and humid each day with afternoon highs topping out around 90f, with overnight lows near 80 along the coast and in the lower 70s farther inland.
Not too much to update this evening with continuing high pressure influences.
Upper level high pressure will remain in place over the eastern Great Lakes through Monday, keeping the unseasonably warm air in place for our area. Highs on Monday are again expected to reach the lower 90s, which should threaten records in a few areas.
More great flying weather in store through most of the forecast period with protective ridging keeping a stable atmosphere in place.
A better chance of more light rain will enter the picture for late Monday and Monday night as an upper low over Utah lifts northeast across the far Northern Plains. Temperatures through Monday will remain cooler than normal during the day given expansive cloud cover.
Water vapor imagery showed an upper-level trough to our east, and an upper-level ridge well off the coast, with NNW flow aloft over SW CA. High pressure over the Great Basin will force weak to moderate offshore flow over Southern California for most of the week. The dry northeast winds will lower humidity, and bring much warmer days and continued cool nights. These winds are bringing very dry and much warmer conditions to the valleys with temperatures about 10 degrees above yesterdays readings, and dewpoints as much as 20 to 30 degrees lower.
An inverted upper level trough axis that extends from the lower to the mid MS Vly is aiding in the development. A large western CONUS trough will edge east with a persistent moisture plume over the Plains trying to edge into out nw counties Mon night.
Otherwise, mainly partly cloudy skies are expected with lows in the lower to mid 70s as low level flow becomes light north to northwest after midnight. Highs will remain very warm near 90 along the coast to the lower 90s for the interior.
This has allowed temperatures to cool into the low 70s across a good portion of west Tennessee or about five degrees cooler than forecast. /issued 301 PM CDT Sun Sep 24 2017/ The upper level low that we've been talking about for the past several days is finally having its impact on the Midsouth with scattered thunderstorms ongoing this afternoon. Tomorrow there will be another slight chance of showers or thunderstorms, particularly in northwest MS and eastern AR where the greatest influence of the upper level low looks to take place.
1140 PM CDT Sun Sep 24 2017 The area continues to be covered under the western periphery of a high pressure system centered over the Ohio Valley. The high pressure is expected to move into the northeast US tonight. The long wave trough will move closer to the region on Monday with scattered showers and thunderstorms possible Monday afternoon in central Missouri.
Above normal to well above normal temperatures will continue into mid-week, then much cooler conditions will arrive for late week into the weekend.
The upper low will then move northeast on Monday to northwestern ND by Tuesday morning. Some light snow also will be possible in the highest Black Hills. Isolated to scattered showers will occur again Monday as the upper low moves just northwest of the CWA, with showers possibly lingering through Monday night. The upper low will then move northeast Tuesday and Tuesday night with building heights and drier/warmer weather developing.
Tomorrow's weather will be nearly identical to today, except that the whole region should remain dry as capping in the low-to-mid levels increases.
/issued 358 PM CDT Sun Sep 24 2017/ Temperatures recovered from the upper 60s to near 70 this morning under the influence of high pressure at surface and aloft. A few more storms on tap for tomorrow into Tuesday as an inverted trof to our east moves slowly acrs the northern gulf under the backside of the exiting area of high pressure.
639 PM CDT Sun Sep 24 2017 Upper level high pressure will remain in place over the eastern Great Lakes through Monday, keeping the unseasonably warm air in place for our area. Highs on Monday are again expected to reach the lower 90s, which should threaten records in a few areas.