Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
A cold front is moving south across North Texas and will be nearing the area late tonight and tomorrow morning. A cold front is stretched across North Texas this afternoon and will drop southward tonight moving into our CWA. Behind the front winds will become northerly and bring cooler, drier air. Low temperatures Tuesday will be around 20 degrees cooler than Monday.
Stronger ridging will build overhead later in the week when some highs could approach the 50s.
High pressure will then build across the region for the first half of the work week. A mean longwave trough remains in place across the western CONUS this evening.
Next period of possible light accumulating snow will be this evening as the cold front drops south, and ensemble signal is consistent on snow occuring, but only showing minimal accumulations of a dusting at the most even out outlying solutions. As this temp drop is correlated with decrease in winds, wind chills should generally remain warmer than advisory criteria (-25), but a few locations could briefly come close (traditional colder locations like Langdon, ND/Fosston, MN). Cold air will still be in place on Tue, as a ridge of high pressure will be building down into the forecast area.
220 AM CST Mon Dec 16 2019 A cold front has slipped into the Permian Basin much earlier than originally expected and has become stationary along the Pecos River. Temperatures behind the front are already dropping into the 30s and will bottom out near freezing before warming this afternoon back into the 40s. The passage of a supporting upper trough this afternoon will send a secondary surge of cold air south that will drop lows further tonight with widespread 20s expected.
246 AM CST Mon Dec 16 2019 (Today and Tonight) Expect colder temperatures today across West Central Texas, behind a cold front.
Prefer not to go too warm despite the warmer air aloft as we'll be working with a shallow mixed layer, possible cloud cover and snow pack. High pressure will make for predominantly dry weather, but a Great Lakes low pressure system will trail a cold front through the area Tuesday afternoon, leading to an increase in northwest winds particularly across central SD where the pressure gradient is tightest. Ridging aloft builds across the region early in the period, and remains pretty much in place through the entire forecast.
Ceilings will improve to MVFR and fog dissipate as low level flow veers to southwest and west with approach of the pre-frontal trough. Conditions will improve to VFR early in the afternoon over the Brush Country as the cold front moves through. Drier air behind the front will erode the low clouds with VFR conditions expected Monday evening with strong and gusty north winds over coastal areas. The cold front continues to push south through central Texas this evening. Adjusted the timing of the cold front a little earlier with the onset of stronger north winds as colder air arrives sooner.
1140 PM EST Sun Dec 15 2019 A wintry mix of precipitation is expected tonight through Tuesday with crossing low pressure. The overrunning of warm air aloft on the van of a broad, upper trough should support a changeover from snow to a wintry mix of sleet and freezing rain along and just north of the I-70 corridor. This, combined with strong warm advection aloft will lead to a prolonged period for freezing rain. A period of freezing rain from 7am to 10am , roughly along and south of I-70, may occur due to moist warm advection.
957 PM MST Sun Dec 15 2019 Upper trough is crossing the western CONUS and moving into the central Plains.
225 AM MST Mon Dec 16 2019 Current upper air analysis shows a trough moving into the Central Plains. Ahead of this trough light snow has been reported over Southern Kansas. Am expecting the lowest visibility to occur around sunrise. With little to no cloud cover, lows will be a few degrees cooler than last night, falling into the lower/mid teens. The low relative humidity values gradually expand/shrink over the central part of the forecast area fast enough during the day that only a small part of one county will meet the three hour rule for persistent low relative humidity/breezy winds. With weak WAA occurring, lows will be a few degrees warmer than tonight.
A complex weather system will bring snow to the KWWR-KPNC areas , freezing drizzle along I-44, and light rain/drizzle farther south today. As the upper trough passes over northern Oklahoma, we have prolonged the chance of light snow along the KS border. Farther south, concerns about freezing drizzle have diminished somewhat. The mention of chance or slight chance of freezing drizzle remains in the morning forecast, but with none presently occuring, no new advisory will be issued. The rest of the weak will be rather tranquil with a series of waves and troughs every 1-2 days, but in a dry atmosphere, apart from a small chance for rain late in the week in southeastern OK.
537 AM CST Mon Dec 16 2019 Very quiet weather today through Tuesday with a large area of Pacific high pressure stationary across the Rockies. The flow aloft is northwest but promises to continue steering arctic high pressure north and east of western and north central Nebraska. The focus is on temperatures and the forecast leans on the cooler short term model blend vs the warmer guidance. Lows tonight lean on the high resolution NAM for guidance.
Snow showers have diminished this morning as high pressure is developing over the region. Some local morning fog will occur this morning in the lower valleys. High pressure and inversions will strengthen later today and tonight.
A cold front currently near the Pecos River will continue to push south toward the Rio Grande River today. /issued 220 AM CST Mon Dec 16 2019/ A cold front has slipped into the Permian Basin much earlier than originally expected and has become stationary along the Pecos River. Temperatures behind the front are already dropping into the 30s and will bottom out near freezing before warming this afternoon back into the 40s. The passage of a supporting upper trough this afternoon will send a secondary surge of cold air south that will drop lows further tonight with widespread 20s expected.
On Tuesday,low level warm advection and downslope flow will develop over the High Plains. The middle of the week will see an upper level ridge propagating east over the central CONUS.
306 AM PST Mon Dec 16 2019 High pressure will bring quiet weather with inversions creating limited ventilation for valleys through Tuesday.
High pressure will bring quiet weather through Tuesday except for gusty north winds down the Colorado River Valley.
Area roads remain slippery from the snow that fell due to the cold temps in the low 20s and upper teens. The Winter Weather Advisory across the south has been cancelled because the snow has ended and the chance for freezing drizzle into early this morning is very low. If freezing drizzle did develop, it would likely be very patchy and brief and have little to no added impact on travel conditions.
With DCVA ahead of the upper trough as it advances east, there is suggestion of enough lift with a good overall bullseye of q-vector convergence which suggests good vertical motion at least through the mid levels of the atmosphere passing overhead this afternoon. But one notable batch this morning should result in light snow and then another one around midday with the main trough should add more to the overall totals. Overall flow pattern exhibits a longer wave ridge building into the area with heights rising and H85 temps pushing 10C by the end of the week.
A few high clouds are spilling through the amplifying eastern Pacific ridge into NorCal, otherwise skies are clear early this morning. Current readings range from around 10 in the colder mountain valleys to the lower 40s across milder portions of the Central Valley. Dry weather will continue the next couple of days as the short- wave ridge moves overhead. Colder portions of the Central Valley will dip down to around the freezing mark by early Tuesday morning.
337 AM CST Mon Dec 16 2019 A weak low pressure area is attempting to form in northeast Texas early this morning, with a cold front extending southwest across Texas and a warm front extending northeast across Arkansas.
Expect to see a non-diurnal temp curve today as hourly temps continue to fall through mid-morning before a warm frontal boundary moves across the northern tier mid-day. A cold front then drops through the area overnight into Tuesday morning. A better chance for light accumulations occurs with a second wave and associated cold front late tonight into Tuesday.
High pressure will build across the state for the first half of the week with a developing inversion.
Enough instability is expected by mid-morning to allow for thunderstorms to develop along and ahead of an approaching cold front. /issued 337 AM CST Mon Dec 16 2019/ A weak low pressure area is attempting to form in northeast Texas early this morning, with a cold front extending southwest across Texas and a warm front extending northeast across Arkansas.
404 AM PST Mon Dec 16 2019 High pressure over the Great Basin will bring gusty northeast winds to the mountains, foothills, and valleys through late Tuesday. It will be dry and warmer west of the mountains, but cooler than average in the mountain and desert areas.
By mid morning today, the upper level low will begin to move through the region and come into phase with the mid level wave. The position of the upper level low and the vorticity in conjunction to the mid level wave indicate there will be an area of prolonged frontogenesis that is likely to progress into the mid to late afternoon before ending. Considering the orientation of the mid level wave and the upper level low, areas along the turnpike seem to be the most likely area to get the higher snowfall amounts. That said, still feel the advisory remains appropriate as the high end of snowfall will be in the five inch range with a few isolated areas over six inches. The snow is expected to end by Monday evening as the high pressure system builds into the region.
332 AM MST Mon Dec 16 2019 High pressure has kept things quiet but chilly across southeastern Wyoming and western Nebraska this morning. Starting tonight, the area of high pressure will begin to intensify slightly as it wobbles through the intermountain west. Along the eastern periphery of the ridge, a fairly strong mid level jet of 30 to 40 kts is expected to develop. While surface pressure gradients are strong, some question marks surround the nature of the high wind threat. As a result of the uncertainty, have left the High Wind Watch as is and only made minimal changes to the overall forecast.
A deep western Atlantic ridge axis extending well across the Florida Peninsula, and into the Gulf of Mexico today will slowly retreat southeastward to near the eastern Florida Straits by late Tuesday night.
/issued 246 AM CST Mon Dec 16 2019/ (Today and Tonight) Expect colder temperatures today across West Central Texas, behind a cold front.
The forecast models have been consistent in showing high chances for snow over the higher terrain locations this afternoon and into the early evening, with additional light accumulations. Temps today will be quite cool with highs at the lower elevations only in the 20s to lower 30s most areas, but maybe a little warmer near the eastern border. Forecast confidence remains elevated based on the low spreads and operational consistency.
400 AM MST Mon Dec 16 2019 Western NOAM ridge will shift east this week, supporting mild conds by mid week on. Frontside of the ridge will begin to creep east tonight with WAA ensuing over the west. Mean ridging expected the remainder of the week with warming temps.
As the upper trough passes over northern Oklahoma, we have prolonged the chance of light snow along the KS border. Farther south, concerns about freezing drizzle have diminished somewhat. The mention of chance or slight chance of freezing drizzle remains in the morning forecast, but with none presently occuring, no new advisory will be issued. The rest of the weak will be rather tranquil with a series of waves and troughs every 1-2 days, but in a dry atmosphere, apart from a small chance for rain late in the week in southeastern OK.
320 AM CST Mon Dec 16 2019 Very quiet weather today through Tuesday with a large area of Pacific high pressure stationary across the Rockies. The flow aloft is northwest but promises to continue steering arctic high pressure north and east of western and north central Nebraska. The focus is on temperatures and the forecast leans on the cooler short term model blend vs the warmer guidance. Lows tonight lean on the high resolution NAM for guidance.
123 AM PST Mon Dec 16 2019 High pressure over Central California over the next two days will keep weather dry before another storm system impacts the region bringing light precip to the area. Cooler and drier airmass over the forecast area this morning will allow for cooler temperatures this morning with many areas in the San Joaquin Valley hitting mid to low 30's. Areas of patchy frost may develop in the lowest elevations of the valley as a result. High pressure aloft moving into the region will allow for clear skies today and high temperatures are expected to reach into the mid 50's. The ridge of high pressure will build over the CWA Monday and Tuesday, fostering a strong offshore gradient.
The High Wind Watch for the Browning/Cut Bank area remains in effect for tonight, with sustained winds around 40 mph potentially being the biggest impact.
349 AM MST Mon Dec 16 2019 High pressure has kept things quiet but chilly across southeastern Wyoming and western Nebraska this morning. Starting tonight, the area of high pressure will begin to intensify slightly as it wobbles through the intermountain west. Along the eastern periphery of the ridge, a fairly strong mid level jet of 30 to 40 kts is expected to develop. While surface pressure gradients are strong, some question marks surround the nature of the high wind threat. As a result of the uncertainty, have left the High Wind Watch as is and only made minimal changes to the overall forecast.
311 AM CST Mon Dec 16 2019 The final round of snowfall is developing ahead of the main longwave mid to upper-level trough now entering the Central Plains region. Sub-freezing highs are expected once again today, while overnight wind chills will dip into the single digits across the area.
213 AM MST Mon Dec 16 2019 Patchy freezing fog producing some visibility reductions down to about 7 miles or so continue to be reported from McCook to Hill City. Forecast focus is on the near term portion of the short term from tonight through mid-day Monday as the remainder of the upper trough moves over the Rockies and High Plains. Skies will remain mostly cloudy as the main upper trough axis moves across the region. The short wave troughs circulating through the base of the main upper trough take a more southerly route from southeast Colorado and northeast New Mexico across southern KS and the Panhandle region tonight into Monday. The surface front remains well south of the region with a low tracking across the southern plains and colder high pressure remaining generally in place across the forecast area.
525 AM CST Mon Dec 16 2019 The final round of snowfall is developing ahead of the main longwave mid to upper-level trough now entering the Central Plains region. Sub-freezing highs are expected once again today, while overnight wind chills will dip into the single digits across the area.
As clearing takes place and high pressure builds over the region, temperatures will begin to recover this afternoon. Upper ridging over the western U.
Some light snow or flurries may develop along the 850 mb warm front as it moves across the area this morning, with better chances near the Turtle Mountains. It will be much warmer farther west, with the far southwest corner of the state seeing highs near 30. On Tuesday night, Arctic high pressure is forecast to slide from the Red River Valley into central Minnesota.
Light snow will continue over the Sangre de Cristo Mountains and the high plains of northeast New Mexico today.
Ceilings expected to improve slowly behind cold front.
221 PM EST Mon Dec 16 2019 A low pressure system will bring a mix of rain, snow, and freezing rain to the area. A low pressure system has begun to lift northeastward from the Mississippi Valley towards the Appalachians. On the north side of the low, strong frontogenetical forcing on the nose of the low-level jet and favorable upper-level divergence underneath a strong anticyclonically curved jet streak will promote enhanced lift throughout much of the region. The low track (Tennessee Valley towards West Virginia) will maintain an easterly surface/near-surface flow, keeping the surface colder and essentially decoupled from the air above it. Between a quarter and half inch of ice accumulation is likely, with the eastern half of the country receiving the highest amounts.
1040 AM EST Mon Dec 16 2019 High pressure centered near Bermuda supports moderate to fresh easterly breezes across the coastal waters of the Florida Keys. Dew points are in the lower 70s this morning, compared with near 60 yesterday morning at this time. Temperatures are in the lower 80s and skies are mostly sunny. High pressure will strengthen and broaden over the western North Atlantic this afternoon and tonight.
This wave will likely bring a mix of freezing drizzle and snow to KTUL, KRVS, KBVO, KFYV, KXNA, and KROG. Freezing line runs from just north of Fayetteville southwest to McAlester. For this afternoon, temperatures will continue to fall this afternoon across southeast Oklahoma and portions of western Arkansas, or remain steady north of the freezing line. Given current thermal profiles, it will mainly be freezing drizzle or snow.
In the wake of today's departing mid-level trough, relatively benign weather is expected through the forecast period. For Tuesday, warmer weather is expected with more insolation. Temperatures will still be cooler than average (40s deg F) with northwest surface winds.
/issued 220 AM CST Mon Dec 16 2019/ A cold front has slipped into the Permian Basin much earlier than originally expected and has become stationary along the Pecos River. Temperatures behind the front are already dropping into the 30s and will bottom out near freezing before warming this afternoon back into the 40s. The passage of a supporting upper trough this afternoon will send a secondary surge of cold air south that will drop lows further tonight with widespread 20s expected.
Cold front continues to push through KIAH to KSGR and should be pushing through KHOU through the next hour.
900 AM MST Mon Dec 16 2019 Send an update this morning to better represent the diminishing cloud cover through today and the extent of the intermittent freezing fog. With skies continuing to clear later today and through portions of this week, the chances for the re-formation of freezing fog and approaching thawing temperatures will become the new forecast challenges. As clearing takes place and high pressure builds over the region, temperatures will begin to recover this afternoon. Upper ridging over the western U.
1021 AM MST Mon Dec 16 2019 Current upper air analysis shows a trough moving into the Central Plains. Ahead of this trough light snow has been reported over Southern Kansas. Am expecting the lowest visibility to occur around sunrise. With little to no cloud cover, lows will be a few degrees cooler than last night, falling into the lower/mid teens. The low relative humidity values gradually expand/shrink over the central part of the forecast area fast enough during the day that only a small part of one county will meet the three hour rule for persistent low relative humidity/breezy winds. With weak WAA occurring, lows will be a few degrees warmer than tonight.
The higher these numbers get will also work to increase instability.
As the cold front approaches from the west, models continue to indicate instability will increase across our southwest.
254 PM EST Mon Dec 16 2019 High pressure ridging aloft and at the surface continues across the region today promoting another day of above normal temperatures along with a few clouds. Heading into Tuesday, a mid-/upper-level trough moving east across the central CONUS will drive a potent low pressure system and attendant cold front across the eastern seaboard, bringing the possibility of showers and thunderstorms to Central and Southwest Florida.
This absence of forcing translates to relatively calm surface winds and continued near-saturation in the low levels of the atmosphere. It's not until the late morning and afternoon when a westerly pressure gradient begins to tighten modestly and cause some mixing in the low levels, so expect fog to be slow to dissipate Tuesday.
/Tonight through Tuesday Night/ Severe threat to gradually diminish through the late afternoon hours as cold front drives east across north Louisiana. A Lake Wind Advisory remains in effect through 6 PM across portions of East Texas and north Louisiana in response to strong northwest winds filtering in behind the frontal boundary as cold high pressure rebuilds areawide. Overnight low temperatures forecast to fall to near freezing by daybreak.
The UL longwave trof causing all the weather will continue to move east of the FA through tomorrow. Weak high pressure and weak downslope flow will resume across western Kansas. For tomorrow, weak high pressure will prevail. Highs should be able to peak in the lower to mid 40s.
230 PM CST Mon Dec 16 2019 The freezing line has pushed into southeast Oklahoma/northwest Arkansas this afternoon, currently located near a McAlester, Bunch, Lowell line. Areas of freezing drizzle will continue north of this line, mixing with light snow across northeast Oklahoma. Although only a light glaze is expected, untreated bridges will likely be slick, including a few roads, especially in areas where temperatures have fallen into the upper 20s.
The higher these numbers get will also work to increase instability. A warm front is draped across Middle Tennessee this morning, providing the focus for a broad area of rain with embedded storms. Ceilings are going to remain IFR/MVFR throughout the day, although we will likely see a lull in the radar echoes later this morning through early afternoon before a cold front starts to make its way across the mid state.
The flow aloft will be northerly as a ridge of high pressure builds over the Great Basin and Central Rockies. It will be warmer on Tuesday but still 5-10 degrees below normal.
The frontal boundary is analyzed across the ArkLaMiss Delta, with isolated supercell structures further south across the Highway 84 corridor & more linear QLCS structures closer to the surface frontal axis.
1121 AM CST Mon Dec 16 2019 The final round of snowfall is developing ahead of the main longwave mid to upper-level trough now entering the Central Plains region. Sub-freezing highs are expected once again today, while overnight wind chills will dip into the single digits across the area.
222 PM CST Mon Dec 16 2019 The cold front that stalled out in the vicinity of the Pecos River this morning is progressing south to the Rio Grande this afternoon, yielding a day of below normal temperatures for most of the area. Temperatures this afternoon are still on track to top out in the upper 40s and 50s for most locations, and warmer (60s and 70s) closer to the Rio Grande. Light northerly to northeasterly post frontal winds tonight along with mostly clear skies will lead to efficient radiational cooling, with lows expected to dip into the 20s for most of the region, and temperatures in the lower to middle 30s confined to the Rio Grande Valley.
1111 AM CST Mon Dec 16 2019 Very quiet weather today through Tuesday with a large area of Pacific high pressure stationary across the Rockies. The flow aloft is northwest but promises to continue steering arctic high pressure north and east of western and north central Nebraska. The focus is on temperatures and the forecast leans on the cooler short term model blend vs the warmer guidance. Lows tonight lean on the high resolution NAM for guidance.