Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
/issued 452 AM CDT Sat Aug 15 2020/ (Today and Tonight) Another very hot day is in store for West Central Texas, with the upper ridge dominating. The ridge will be farther west today and centered over the Desert Southwest. Temperatures will be a few degrees cooler today, but still well above normal and exceeding Heat Advisory and Excessive Heat criteria. With the center of the upper high west of the area, flow aloft will be out of the north and northwest through tonight.
1025 AM EDT Sat Aug 15 2020 Weak low pressure in eastern Kentucky will slowly move northeast today and tonight.
730 AM EDT Sat Aug 15 2020 Crossing low pressure will bring showers and some storms to the area today. Most of Sunday looks dry before a cold front will bring another shot of showers/storms late in the day. Models continue to point to the highest probability of substantial rainfall to lie south of Pittsburgh in close proximity to the surface wave. The cold front will move through late Sunday night, and may offer a few showers prior to its passage.
Degree of moisture in the low levels seems to be the culprit. An intense ridge with heights around 600 dm centered over the southwest this weekend won't move much at all for the next 10 days. The longwave trough will be confined to the eastern Great Lakes and east coast. HRRR and HREF do show some potential for fog at AXN/RWF late tonight as winds die off with high pressure coming in.
/issued 256 AM CDT Sat Aug 15 2020/ It will be hot again today, but models are showing that the thermal ridge will be farther west so temps should be a few degrees cooler than yesterday.
A cold front will bring another shot of showers late tomorrow. A low pressure system will continue to move northeast today; rain showers will prevail into the evening for portions of our region. Dry air surrounding the system from the north and west will keep the highest rainfall totals near an inch. A few lingering showers will stay focused near the ridges overnight. The cold front will advance across the region late Sunday night; a few showers prior to its passage may develop near Zanesville.
452 AM CDT Sat Aug 15 2020 (Today and Tonight) Another very hot day is in store for West Central Texas, with the upper ridge dominating. The ridge will be farther west today and centered over the Desert Southwest. Temperatures will be a few degrees cooler today, but still well above normal and exceeding Heat Advisory and Excessive Heat criteria. With the center of the upper high west of the area, flow aloft will be out of the north and northwest through tonight.
With the presence of the cold front and some spotty redevelopment currently occuring back over far western Wisconsin, at least slight chance pops were continued through the morning hours to account for some straggling showers. CAPE will build to be modest (around 1500-2000 J/kg) in the afternoon, but enough to support some thunderstorm redevelopment over far SE WI, especially with both the lake breeze and the cold front acting as sfc triggers.
SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday Night): Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley will remain on the southern periphery of broad 500 mb high pressure centered over the Desert Southwest during the period.
Isolated/widely scattered convection will be possible across the northern half of the forecast area late this afternoon and early evening, ahead of a cold front approaching from the north. A cold front in Missouri will drop into north Arkansas this afternoon and bring isolated showers and thunderstorms to the north. Today Through Sunday An upper ridge is centered over the desert southwest and providing a northerly flow over the southern Plains. This ridge will expand through Sunday and the flow over Arkansas will become northwest. A cold front will enter north Arkansas this afternoon. Highs today will be in the lower to mid 90s and in the upper 80s to mid 90s Sunday.
1224 PM CDT Sat Aug 15 2020 A forecast update is in place for isolated showers and thunderstorms developing along a warm front lifting slowly north through western Nebraska. A weak cold front will sink southward into Neb. SFC based CAPE values around 2500 J/KG should materialize within the higher theta-e air along and just ahead of the front. Upper level high pressure expands and strengthens across the western CONUS during the upcoming week. North to northwest flow aloft across our region will prevail on the eastern periphery of the high. A warm front across southwest Nebraska will move east this afternoon and this evening and be the focus for isolated showers and thunderstorms, generally affecting areas along and south of I-80.
Ridge will continue to build over the region today with warmer temperatures expected. The ridge will continue to strengthen on Sunday with record high temperatures possible.
332 PM EDT Sat Aug 15 2020 It has been a quiet August afternoon across the Florida Keys, this despite the mid-upper level low just to our southeast, nearly 2" of PW, and the strong instability sampled by this morning's KKEY RAOB. Temperatures are in the lower to mid 90s under mostly sunny skies. There is still a slim opportunity for the Lower Keys cloud line to kick off between 21-00Z, insulating itself from the pesky dry air. The low-level kinematic fields will remain weak through the next several days as the western extent of the ridge axis erodes.
At the surface, a cold front was analyzed from Chicago to Saint Louis and back through northwest Arkansas. Expect partly cloudy skies for tomorrow with highs a few degrees cooler than today.
Highs are on their way to the low and mid 80s with plenty of sunshine expected over most of the area. Improving weather starts today as the upper level Low over us moves away and drier air aloft moves in. Before the upper low completely exits, isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are again forecast for this afternoon. This change will feature an expanding upper- level ridge over the western US and a deepening upper-level low over the Hudson Bay with a trough extending through the eastern US. This pattern will bring record setting heat across the western US while across the eastern US unseasonably cooler temperatures for mid August and more comfortable dew points. Low level moisture ahead of this front with dew points still in the low 70s could lead to some scattered showers/t'storms for the afternoon.
An intense 600 dm ridge centered over the southwest this weekend won't move much at all for the next 10 days. The longwave trough will be confined to the eastern Great Lakes and east coast.
Record or near record heat remains possible for the beginning of the week as high pressure over the southern Great Basin strengthens.
259 PM CDT Sat Aug 15 2020 Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop along a weak cold front and move east across the area late this afternoon through this evening. Quiet and seasonably warm conditions are expected on Sunday, as high pressure builds across the Midwest. As a cold front slowly moves east across the area, scattered thunderstorms are still expected to develop late this afternoon through this evening and move east across central Illinois. Highs tomorrow will once again rise into the lower to middle 80s.
345 PM CDT Sat Aug 15 2020 The CWA is currently on the eastern side of an upper level ridge that is partially eroded by an area of weakness/weak trough.
Better news concerning the heat on Sunday (for most areas) as cold front pushes through the area. Drier/cooler conditions still expected for much of the upcoming work week as upper trough persists across the eastern CONUS due to strong blocking high off the Atlantic coast.
428 PM EDT Sat Aug 15 2020 High pressure remains north of the state through Sunday.
With the frontal passage this morning, noticeably cooler temperatures will be observed today; highs in the low to mid 80s can be expected. This is primarily due to the fact that the Mid/lower Missouri Valley will remain caught between a stout ridge to the west and a lumbering trough to the east.
227 PM MDT Sat Aug 15 2020 High pressure is currently building into the Northern Rockies and is expected to strengthen over the coming days.
226 PM CDT Sat Aug 15 2020 The cold front has moved through the region with a few residual clouds lingering south of the Interstate 70 corridor. Temperatures this afternoon range from the upper 70s where cloud cover remains to the low to mid 80s elsewhere with drier air filtering in behind the front. Northwest flow aloft will prevail as the region will remain sandwiched between ridging to the west and troughing to the east with high pressure at the surface. High temperatures will generally reside in the mid 80s with lows in the low to mid 60s with essentially zero chances for rain.
Otherwise, northwesterly flow and cooler conditions are expected overnight with lows falling into the 50s. Sunday is shaping up to be mild and much less humid as high pressure builds to the west and upper-level northwesterly flow pattern establishes itself over the region.
Otherwise, look for the trough axis to pull east of the mid state by late afternoon. Tonight will bring some patchy fog to the area once again with the lowest vsbys likely to occur near csv.
Aloft, a large area of high pressure remains anchored over the southwestern CONUS putting our area in northwesterly flow with troughing across the Great Lakes region. This wave will move a weak cold front into the region and provide a little focus for a few spotty showers/thunderstorms. Northwesterly flow aloft continues with large dome of high pressure anchored over the desert southwest.
254 PM CDT Sat Aug 15 2020 Cold front has moved through the dvn cwa with visible satellite showing clear skies in the wake of the front. High pressure building into the area will provide clear skies to the dvn cwa tonight and Sunday. A building upper ridge over the western U. Otherwise, there looks to be few opportunities for rainfall through the week under a northwest flow aloft and high pressure at the surface.
1006 AM CDT Sat Aug 15 2020 A forecast update is in place for isolated showers and thunderstorms developing along a warm front lifting slowly north through western Nebraska. A weak cold front will sink southward into Neb. SFC based CAPE values around 2500 J/KG should materialize within the higher theta-e air along and just ahead of the front. Upper level high pressure expands and strengthens across the western CONUS during the upcoming week. North to northwest flow aloft across our region will prevail on the eastern periphery of the high.
1112 AM MDT Sat Aug 15 2020 Upper ridge settles into the Four Corners today resulting in weak northwest flow aloft over the central High Plains while a post frontal upslope regime continues at the surface.
Otherwise clouds are scattering out behind the cold front this morning from west to east. Amplified upper pattern will exist through midweek with upper ridging over the western U. and troughing over the east.
119 PM EDT Sat Aug 15 2020 Dry and pleasant conditions with near seasonable temperatures will prevail through the weekend as high pressure settles over the North Country.
253 PM CDT Sat Aug 15 2020 The cold front continues to push into southeast Kansas this afternoon, bringing welcome relief in the form of drier air to the northern half of the CWA as dewpoints drop into the middle and upper 50s. For tonight, isentropic lift increases within the low levels as h85 winds veer to the southeast, advecting warm and moist air towards central and western Kansas. Severe storm chances for Sunday afternoon and evening are appearing less likely as a secondary cold front and trailing upper wave slow over Nebraska. An overall quiet week ahead as the strong upper ridge covering much of the western CONUS shifts slightly eastward, directing most of the stronger waves east of the area.
101 PM MDT Sat Aug 15 2020 Upper level analysis and water vapor show northwest flow aloft with subtle trough axis pivoting across the Northern Plains today. Expansive high pressure over SW US and ridge axis over the Pacific NW will dominate the weather through at least midweek. Fully expect the occasional wave riding the top of the ridge, although dry west-northwest flow will limit precipitation chances and storm coverage.
A bubble of high pressure is nearing St. The cooler readings tonight will be along and east of the ridge axis from Lamoni northeast to Waterloo and areas east. Lows tonight will range from the 50s to the lower 60s across the region. Models are in general agreement with a return of warm air advection Sunday ahead of the H850 trough and some supporting dynamics aloft. Highs Sunday should recover into the mid to upper 80s over the central and south with slightly cooler readings over the north.
1107 AM EDT Sat Aug 15 2020 Weak low pressure in eastern Kentucky will slowly move northeast today and tonight.
A cold front will bring another shot of showers late tomorrow. Dry air surrounding the system from the north and west will keep areas dry near I-80 and the highest rainfall totals under an inch. Showers will stay focused near the ridges overnight. Early morning isolated showers may still linger near WV ridges, otherwise Sunday will be mostly dry under increased subsidence. The cold front will advance across the region late Sunday evening; a few showers prior to its passage may develop near Zanesville.
The repositioning of the high has resulted in a shift of flow aloft to the northwest.
Will continue to mention chances for showers/isolated thunder tonight, with the highest chances favoring north-central/central WI, and lower confidence with the southern and western extent of any showers. Temps will be slightly warmer on Sunday with highs into the 80s for much of the area ahead of a weak surface boundary approaching from the northwest. The highest likelihood for isolated storm development appears to be farther west across southwest/south-central MN into northwest IA where slightly stronger low-level forcing may intersect a corridor of instability (SBCAPEs of 1000-1500 J/kg). The NAM and other models which are initialized from it have the dew points climbing into the lower to mid-60s.
326 PM CDT Sat Aug 15 2020 An upper level long wave trof will pass over the forecast area today, accompanied by embedded pieces of energy. A surface trof in the eastern Dakotas will move into the area tonight along with a compact/strong piece of energy aloft dropping southeast from the Canadian Prairies. The upper level long wave trof moves into the eastern Great Lakes on Sunday allowing a cool northwest flow aloft to cover the region, along with high pressure. 850mb temps will drop into the single digits celsius over much of the area, allowing minimum temps to dip into the upper 40s north, to the lower 50s south.
The convection is in response to an outflow boundary moving S-SW across the area and a cold front currently along the northern CWA border that will continue to move south. Lows tonight will be in the low to mid 60s with Sunday seeing sunny skies and highs in the mid 80s. Not only will Sunday be cooler, but also drier with dew points 15-20 degrees lower than today.
300 PM EDT Sat Aug 15 2020 The upper trough axis is now over eastern KY, with a drier and more subsident airmass over much of our CWA. This is keeping things mostly dry minus isolated to widely scattered showers across our far SE and E CWA closer to the upper trough.
Low temperatures may be a couple of degrees cooler than what we saw last night. Drier air will fill in behind the boundary and make for cooler overnight lows as we start the work week.
216 PM MDT Sat Aug 15 2020 Dominant upper level high pressure over the western US begins to build into the western half of Montana maintaining clear skies. Dry air is facilitating cool overnight temperatures but strong solar insolation will help temperatures rebound into the lower to mid 90s on Sunday. Strong ridging will dominate the northern Rockies.
322 PM EDT Sat Aug 15 2020 Rain will diminish with passage of low pressure early this evening. Isolated showers can be expected with a Sunday cold front. The rain-supporting trough will continue to slide eastward with coverage diminishing by early eve. Clouds are expected to diminish also later this eve with passage of the mid level trough axis with sufficient radiation to support seasonable temperature and patchy fog.
Upper trough axis continues to pivot across the TN Valley this morning with the consequent surface wave sliding east into NC/SC at this time. CDG Chattanooga Airport, TN 70 90 70 89 67 / 10 10 0 10 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 69 87 68 86 65 / 40 20 10 10 10 Oak Ridge, TN 67 88 68 87 64 / 30 20 10 10 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 66 82 64 83 61 / 60 20 10 10 10.
With some cooling of the atmosphere, expect lows tonight to be a few degrees cooler than last night, with lows in the mid 70s. It no longer looks like a cold front will be affecting the Big Country Sunday, while elsewhere it is still gonna be hot (although not quite as hot as today and yesterday due to weakening of the 850 mb thermal ridge ).
A mid/upper trough extending from the central Great Lakes to the northeast Gulf of Mexico, with a embedded low/mid-level closed low pressure area over the east central conus, will continue to move toward the eastern seaboard and weaken. In the wake of the departing trough, weak mid/upper ridging will build in from the west over the forecast area.
717 PM EDT Sat Aug 15 2020 A few showers and perhaps a thunderstorm are possible overnight as a weak cold front crosses through the area. Highs on Sunday rise into the low 80s and the front should help to remove any humidity as dew points fall from the 60s to the 50s. The aforementioned trough from Canada builds in and the ridge in the Western CONUS builds there allowing for a high amplitude pattern across the CONUS where we reside in drying northwest flow.
731 PM CDT Sat Aug 15 2020 Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop along a weak cold front and move east across the area late this afternoon through this evening. Quiet and seasonably warm conditions are expected on Sunday, as high pressure builds across the Midwest. Cold front continues to push southeast, centered roughly along the Illinois River based on sharp dew point dropoff to the west. As a cold front slowly moves east across the area, scattered thunderstorms are still expected to develop late this afternoon through this evening and move east across central Illinois. Highs tomorrow will once again rise into the lower to middle 80s.
619 PM MDT Sat Aug 15 2020 High pressure aloft centered over the Desert Southwest will strengthen as it expands north through the Great Basin this weekend.
714 PM EDT Sat Aug 15 2020 Isolated showers can be expected with a Sunday cold front. The rain-supporting trough has slide sufficiently eastward to end rain for most areas.
Cold front has moved through the dvn cwa with visible satellite showing clear skies in the wake of the front. High pressure building into the area will provide clear skies to the dvn cwa tonight and Sunday. A building upper ridge over the western U. Otherwise, there looks to be few opportunities for rainfall through the week under a northwest flow aloft and high pressure at the surface.
The long wave pattern in the short term period will be dominated by an increasingly amplified ridge in the West CONUS and trough in the East CONUS. On Sunday, a short wave trough and associated cold front will ride quickly SEWRD along the ridge/trough interface and move into the TN Valley during the day. Dynamic lift will be limited ahead of the front/trough and thermodynamic support will likewise be somewhat limited, but perhaps a but more conducive aloft than today.
618 PM EDT Sat Aug 15 2020 Rain will diminish with passage of low pressure early this evening. Isolated showers can be expected with a Sunday cold front. The rain-supporting trough will continue to slide eastward with coverage diminishing by early eve. Clouds are expected to diminish also later this eve with passage of the mid level trough axis with sufficient radiation to support seasonable temperature and patchy fog.
Surface analysis depicts weak high pressure extending from the western Atlantic across the northern Bahamas and south Florida into the central Gulf of Mexico. Aloft, lower to mid level ridging continues to dominate our region, while an upper level low spinning over central Cuba is having no appreciable impact on the sensible weather for the Keys.
High pressure aloft centered over the Desert Southwest will strengthen as it expands north through the Great Basin this weekend.
- Scattered showers and thunderstorms tonight Severe threat is low with the convection this evening although there could be some isolated strong updrafts, with the highest chances across the northern zones in area of best upper divergence.
613 PM CDT Sat Aug 15 2020 Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop along a weak cold front and move east across the area late this afternoon through this evening. Quiet and seasonably warm conditions are expected on Sunday, as high pressure builds across the Midwest. As a cold front slowly moves east across the area, scattered thunderstorms are still expected to develop late this afternoon through this evening and move east across central Illinois. Highs tomorrow will once again rise into the lower to middle 80s.
Thunderstorms tied to this trough but struggling to grow. Window for any severe is closing, though some general t-storms may continue thru mid evening as trough moves through.
627 PM CDT Sat Aug 15 2020 The cold front has moved through the region with a few residual clouds lingering south of the Interstate 70 corridor. Temperatures this afternoon range from the upper 70s where cloud cover remains to the low to mid 80s elsewhere with drier air filtering in behind the front. Northwest flow aloft will prevail as the region will remain sandwiched between ridging to the west and troughing to the east with high pressure at the surface. High temperatures will generally reside in the mid 80s with lows in the low to mid 60s with essentially zero chances for rain. A high pressure moving into the area clears skies out for the remainder of tonight and tomorrow.
A surface cold front is currently shifting southeastward across north central IL, while a lake breeze boundary is gradually shifting inland over far northeastern IL and northwest IN.
805 PM EDT Sat Aug 15 2020 High pressure remains north of the state through Sunday.
By later in the period on Sunday, a weak cold front will begin advancing its way south into the region with winds veering N/NW and increasing to near 10 kts.
1007 PM EDT Sat Aug 15 2020 A trough of low pressure and a slow moving front across the area, will result in unsettled weather through the weekend. As the low slowly shift N/NE tonight expect the focus of the precip to be over the northern neck and the eastern shore.
643 PM CDT Sat Aug 15 2020 An upper level long wave trof will pass over the forecast area today, accompanied by embedded pieces of energy. A surface trof in the eastern Dakotas will move into the area tonight along with a compact/strong piece of energy aloft dropping southeast from the Canadian Prairies. The upper level long wave trof moves into the eastern Great Lakes on Sunday allowing a cool northwest flow aloft to cover the region, along with high pressure. 850mb temps will drop into the single digits celsius over much of the area, allowing minimum temps to dip into the upper 40s north, to the lower 50s south.
912 PM EDT Sat Aug 15 2020 High pressure remains north of the state through Sunday.
1014 PM EDT Sat Aug 15 2020 An upper level trough will move into the area overnight. This will push a weak cold front through the area Sunday. A short wave trough moving into the Southern Appalachians this evening will slowly cross the area overnight. Overnight lows will be in the lower to mid 70s. All of the models show that the axis of the upper trough will move to the coast during the day on Sunday. There continues to be some timing differences in how fast the trough will push toward the coast with the NAM being the fastest and the ECMWF/GFS being the slowest.