Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
201 AM MDT Thu Jun 24 2021 Largely zonal flow exists across the Northern Plains this morning ahead of approaching trough axis centered over SW Canada. The upper trough axis will remain centered across the Northern Rockies today as upper level flow becomes more cyclonic downstream. The subtropical jet will nose into the SW US atop a upper high centered over western Mexico.
404 AM EDT Thu Jun 24 2021 The upper-level pattern has finally begun to flatten out, allowing the subtropical ridge axis to regain a firmer control over the region. Given enough instability from warmer SSTs and ample moisture, storms may continue for some time in coastal waters, and a rogue one here or there may even pop up closer to morning, but these should not be of concern for land overnight. There isn't much on the horizon for the next few days to cause a shift, and the upper- level ridge should continue to build, keeping the easterly winds in place and scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms each afternoon.
A low level jet and theta-e ridge nosing into the southeast corner of the CWA has been enough to maintain an isolated shower or thunderstorm, but will continue to push southeast with the front.
/issued 246 PM CDT Wed Jun 23 2021/ Upper level ridging remains squarely in place overhead through this evening which will help temperatures warm to near the century mark. Upper level ridging will begin to flatten tomorrow as a trough moves out of British Columbia and sinks into the Pacific Northwest. Unfortunately, this won't change sensible weather much across our region as ridging will remain in place and hence temperatures will still warm back up to near the century mark.
The aforementioned quasi-stationary boundary will begin to drift east northeast across the Lower Mississippi over the next 24 hours.
Highs will still recover to the mid to upper 80s north to the lower to mid 80s central and south.
348 AM CDT Thu Jun 24 2021 High pressure at surface extends from the northeast US down into deep south Texas. Temperatures will climb into the low 90s inland and near 90 at the beaches. the upper level ridge will break down from the east to the west.
441 AM EDT Thu Jun 24 2021 High pressure gradually moves offshore today.
424 AM EDT Thu Jun 24 2021 High pressure will continue to build across the region over the next several days with gradually warming temperatures and mainly dry weather. Current temperatures are in the low 40s to mid 50s.
127 AM EDT Thu Jun 24 2021 High pressure gradually retreats offshore through Thursday.
250 AM CDT Thu Jun 24 2021 Mostly clear skies prevail across the TN Valley tonight, as high pressure maintains its hold on the weather pattern. Upper ridging will slowly build eastward today, while surface flow remains from the east-southeast. The short term period will see mostly dry conditions has high pressure remains the dominate feature over the area.
406 AM EDT Thu Jun 24 2021 High pressure gradually moves offshore today.
By Friday, our source of moisture and dynamic forcing shift gears as a deepening trough drags a weak cold front across the area. As for temperatures, we'll be running 5 to 10 degrees cooler this afternoon, thanks to increased cloud cover and shower activity. Friday's cold front will bring noticeably cooler temps across the northern half of the forecast area, while regions across the south will actually bump up a degree or two. A very large area of high pressure will develop over the northwest portion of the country this weekend, with our CWA on the eastern side of this high pressure in a somewhat drier northerly flow. The high will shunt much of this moisture south and east, with the western Colorado divide mountains seeing the best chance of afternoon thunderstorms.
Overnight temperatures so far (through 3 am) range from the mid to upper 70s well inland to the low to mid 80s near and at the coast. With the upper level high pressure ridge remaining in control through the short term, expect to see late night through early morning showers mainly near the coast and offshore. High temperatures each day will be mainly in the low to mid 90s inland and near 90 at the coast. Little temperature relief can be expected overnight as onshore winds persist and help to keep lows ranging mainly from the mid to upper 70s well inland to the lower 80s near and at the coast.
A strong ridge of high pressure will bring warm and dry weather to eastern Kentucky today, tonight, and Friday. Skies should be mostly clear to partly cloudy today and tonight, but will be on the increase on Friday, as a low pressure system tries to move our way out of the central Plains. There will be a developing upper trough over the north central CONUS, along with an associated surface cold front.
The upper-level pattern has finally begun to flatten out, allowing the subtropical ridge axis to regain a firmer control over the region. Given enough instability from warmer SSTs and ample moisture, storms may continue for some time in coastal waters, and a rogue one here or there may even pop up closer to morning, but these should not be of concern for land overnight. There isn't much on the horizon for the next few days to cause a shift, and the upper- level ridge should continue to build, keeping the easterly winds in place and scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms each afternoon.
Temperatures adjusted slightly to match differences between valleys and ridge tops but otherwise no changes. 1245 AM Update: Ridge of high pressure over the interior Northeast today keeps the skies mostly sunny with low humidity once again. Highs will be around 10 degrees warmer than yesterday getting into the upper 70s to low 80s. A weak area of low pressure just off the coast could pass close enough for an isolated thunderstorm or two in the Poconos but confidence was too low to include in the weather grids or PoPs. Heat and humidity build this weekend, as southwesterly flow cedes ground to a warm Atlantic ridge/upper level high. For the second half of the weekend, models depict a very warm upper high over the western Atlantic, though differ on how quickly it will nudge itself northward.
As weak low pressure passes to our north and a frontal boundary leans towards the area there should be an uptick in tsra. Weak ridging aloft appears to take hold for Friday with some period of subsidence likely after the overnight/early morning MCS departs the region.
457 AM PDT Thu Jun 24 2021 High pressure to the north will bring warming and drying through the weekend.
5 away from the coast and mid-level ridge over the region. By Friday the ridge begins flattening as the next mid level trough moves toward the region. CAPE is a bit lower though, and with the lower moisture, think activity should be less than today. High temperatures today and Friday will be around 100 west and into the lower 90s east.
A few storms moving across the Lower Keys are producing strong wind gusts near 45 mph and heavy rainfall. Temperatures are currently in the lower to mid 80s, with temperatures in the upper 70s being realized in communities currently receiving rainfall. An upper- level trough is currently sweeping across the eastern United States and there is currently weak cyclonic flow at the surface. From synopsis, Periods of unsettled weather are expected through tonight due to the presence of an upper-level trough over South Florida and an upper- tropospheric low in the vicinity of Cuba. Thereafter, high pressure will bridge across the Florida Keys marine zones, resulting in freshening east to southeast breezes tonight and into the weekend, with wind speeds likely highest in the overnight and early morning hours.
Heights at 500mb remain neutral today as the upper ridge stretches out from northern Mexico into the Mississippi River valley. Surface lee troughing/cyclogenesis will again develop but these surface features will be shifted slightly to the east. The upper high that has been dominating the region will be but a shadow of its former self as the upper trough progged to push southward from Canada flattens the upper high.
/issued 348 AM CDT Thu Jun 24 2021/ High pressure at surface extends from the northeast US down into deep south Texas. Temperatures will climb into the low 90s inland and near 90 at the beaches. the upper level ridge will break down from the east to the west.
813 AM EDT Thu Jun 24 2021 High pressure maintains dry weather through early Friday. High pressure slowly drifts east but remains in control through the near term. Southerly flow around the western flank of the anticyclone will yield warming temperatures day with highs reaching the mid 80s across much of the lower elevations with mid 60s to lower 70s in the mountains. Weather pattern remains slow with high pressure across the western US, another one off the East Coast, and in between, a slow- moving cold front expected to meander across the mid west Friday through the weekend. It seems like the broad high pressure off the East Coast will maintain its influence over the local region through late Friday with mainly dry weather.
621 AM CDT Thu Jun 24 2021 Scattered showers and thunderstorms have developed ahead of a cold front pushing through western MN early this morning. The cold front will continue eastward this morning, clearing most of the area early this afternoon before additional development occurs. In doing so, the surface cold front will likely drape along this axis for Friday. Low pressure tracking eastward across the Plains will in turn remain well south of our area, so PoPs have been decreased again.
740 AM EDT Thu Jun 24 2021 High pressure will continue to build across the region through the end of the week with gradually warming temperatures and mainly dry weather. Another pleasant day on tap today as high pressure remains situated to our south and east. Highs are expected in the low to mid 80s.
Today Through Friday Night To begin the period, high pressure will continue to be in control. The upper level ridge that brought cooler temperatures earlier this week has since moved east returning southerly flow to the CWA. High temperatures look to climb back up into the high 80s to mid 90s with heat index values likely reaching into the upper 90s and 100s.
Warmer with increased humidity levels should commence this weekend, with a shower or storm possible. Quiet conditions are anticipated Friday as high pressure supports another dry day. Though, increasing warm, moist advection in sly flow aloft should support extensive cloud cover as low pressure skirts nw of the forecast area.
Friday, High pressure off the Pacific Northwest will strengthen and amplify into far northern British Columbia. The Northern Rockies will be under a general northerly flow around this ridge resulting in a pleasant day with temperatures in the lower 80s across western Montana and mid 90s in the lower valleys across central Idaho.
Initial focus is ongoing MCS spreading toward NE KS and scattered convection within the low level jet axis all of which is likely to diminish and/or translate more eastward away from the forecast area. Isolated afternoon convection within the higher terrain of SE OK / NW AR is possible but any coverage will remain very low. The more likely corridor of increasing shower and storm chances will be along the slowly advancing cold front.
730 AM EDT Thu Jun 24 2021 A strong ridge of high pressure will bring warm and dry weather to eastern Kentucky today, tonight, and Friday. Skies should be mostly clear to partly cloudy today and tonight, but will be on the increase on Friday, as a low pressure system tries to move our way out of the central Plains. There will be a developing upper trough over the north central CONUS, along with an associated surface cold front.
Here at TWC, we are loving the smell of creosote and RHs in the 70-95% range this morning! Expect a muggy morning with TDs well into the 60s and even the lower 70s.
Mostly clear skies prevail across the TN Valley tonight, as high pressure maintains its hold on the weather pattern. Upper ridging will slowly build eastward today, while surface flow remains from the east-southeast. The short term period will see mostly dry conditions has high pressure remains the dominate feature over the area. The ridge will become anchored over the southeastern CONUS and should suppress any convection from developing through at least Friday.
As the mentioned front lingers, slightly cooler conditions are possible across the northern zones. In addition to the slightly cooler highs, late afternoon and evening storms will be possible along and north of this front with the upslope flow along and behind it. Have the highest pops this evening across the north in closer proximity to this front. The cold front may be reinforced by outflow from the storms this evening. This may help to push the cold front farther south on Friday. The high pops from the NBM look reasonable for now given the trend in both global and meso models are far as convective potential is concerned. Did go with slightly cooler highs for Friday given the potential for more widespread storm coverage.
06z surface analysis shows a cold front currently located from the tip of the Arrowhead to the Brainerd Lakes area. Conditions behind the cold front will be much more mundane compared to current conditions across the area. The remainder of today in northeast Minnesota will be dry as high pressure builds. Friday will be a quiet day across the CWA as high pressure remains over the area. An active weather pattern is likely this weekend as a longwave trough stalls over the northern Plains. MVFR cigs around HYR will continue over the next few hours before improving to VFR as a cold front passes through. Quiet weather for Thursday as high pressure builds in from the west.
/issued 346 AM CDT Thu Jun 24 2021/ SHORT TERM (Now through Friday): Mid level ridging will continue to build over Texas through the short term period.
(Today through Friday afternoon) WV imagery shows the upper ridge has shifted a bit ENE over the past 24 hours, and is now centered over north central Texas. Friday, the upper ridge continues to elongate across the srn CONUS, and beginning to bifurcate as a broad upper trough begins digging into the south central plains. The low-level thermal ridge is forecast to shift slightly east, and afternoon temps may even increase a degree or so. Westerly flow ahead of the aforementioned trough may sharpen up a weak dryline over the region, on which afternoon/evening convection will be possible. Freezing levels and wet-bulb zeroes look too high for a hail threat, but inverted-V soundings and modest dcapes could yield a damaging wind threat, especially NE.
Unseasonably cool temperatures are expected today but will be warmer than yesterday in most areas. South of I-40, storms have a better chance of being wet where higher precipitable water is present in the lower atmosphere. We are expecting to see warmer temperatures today as they begin to climb back to normal by Friday.
710 AM CDT Thu Jun 24 2021 Weak high pressure bringing west winds this morning with temps around 60F. NW winds at 5 to 15mph with a few afternoon gusts to 20 to 25mph with mixing bringing afternoon highs into the low to mids 80s. Overnight a few showers and thunderstorms will slowly try to creep into eastern ND as midlevel trough/forcing in western Dakotas approaches. Fridays temps should be a bit cooler with the increased cloud cover with highs around 80. Ensemble guidance suggests this is our best shot at precipitation for awhile, as very strong ridging will settle in over the area, drying us out and keeping us stuck in a pattern of 80s temperatures.
The light nw winds over the ocean have been induced by upper level low pressure that continues to wobble just west of the Golden Gate and clearly shows up on water vapor imagery. Cloud bases are fairly high this morning due to the proximity of the upper low and disrupted inversion layer. Latest model solutions do suggest the synoptic lift associated with the upper low will allow for a solid round of thunderstorms across the Central Sierra this afternoon. The upper low will rapidly fill and dissipate overnight as the much ballyhooed ridge over British Columbia intensifies while high pressure west of Baja California ridges northward as well. Expect a modest warming trend for Friday as the ridge starts to build and temps warm closer to normal for inland areas.
A general northerly flow aloft will remain across the CWA through the period, as a 590 DAM high nudges further east and into the Lower Mississippi River Vally. Meanwhile at the surface, high pressure continues to wedge itself into the CWA from the northeast. Under partly to mostly cloudy skies, lows will fall into the low and middle 70s.
As a cold front pushes across the area today, coverage will ramp up.
Round Three A cold front is expected to slowly move southeastward Friday, and as a result yet another round of severe thunderstorms is possible. More rain and cooler temperatures appear likely for the weekend as we remain under the influence of a upper-level longwave trough.
Closed upper level low off the CENCAL coast is remaining nearly stationary. Models are in decent agreement with the track of the upper level low center moving inland and dissipating over CENCAL as an upper level high pressure center rapidly develops across the PAC NW on Friday. The ridge will take over the pattern across our area.
Subtropical Ridging provides a fairly strong capping inversion to keep mixing with the drier airmass aloft at a minimum today. The Ridge and associated capping weaken a little on Friday allowing heat index values to be a couple of degrees lower in the afternoon keeping them under Heat Advisory criteria. The capping inversion and subsidence under the Subtropical Ridge will generally inhibit showers and thunderstorms.
1031 AM EDT Thu Jun 24 2021 A relatively light E/SE flow will exist across the area today, with a weak inverted trough off the east coast pushing westward. The Atlantic ridge axis builds in well north of the area today, with E/SE winds around 10 knots or less.
Early this morning, the synoptic pattern was characterized by a Hudson Bay closed low and ridging building off the coast of the Pacific Northwest, leading to quasi-zonal flow across North Dakota. Lows tonight will stay in the lower 50s to lower 60s with widespread cloud cover along with the precipitation. The previously mentioned upper trough that will be approaching the region today will be quite slow moving, slowly making its way across the region on Friday. This trough will produce widespread showers and thunderstorms across the area, with higher chances to the south, and highs in the 70s. As this trough meanders to our east, flow aloft becomes almost straight northerly in response to an increasingly amplified upper ridge across the Pacific NW.
Adjustments made to reflect this, otherwise forecast is on track for seasonal temperatures in the 80s for most locations (cooler spots in the upper 70s near the International Border). Weak high pressure bringing west winds this morning with temps around 60F. NW winds at 5 to 15mph with a few afternoon gusts to 20 to 25mph with mixing bringing afternoon highs into the low to mids 80s. Overnight a few showers and thunderstorms will slowly try to creep into eastern ND as midlevel trough/forcing in western Dakotas approaches. Fridays temps should be a bit cooler with the increased cloud cover with highs around 80. Ensemble guidance suggests this is our best shot at precipitation for awhile, as very strong ridging will settle in over the area, drying us out and keeping us stuck in a pattern of 80s temperatures.
Think there will likely be a line of storms from around EAU to RHI to IMT ahead of a weak cold front in the next few hours which will move slowly southeast with time and diminish with the loss of surface heating late this evening.
307 PM EDT Thu Jun 24 2021 Current surface analysis reveals high pressure centered along the Mid-Atlantic/East Coast with a couple areas of low pressure centered over the Upper Midwest and the south-central Plains. HREF composite reflectivities suggest this system will similarly weaken as it begins to run into the eastern ridge tomorrow morning, resulting in best chances to see some showers and storms Friday being across southern IN and northern KY. Temperatures will once again be in the 80s across the area with slightly cooler temps over northern portions of the area where cloud cover is expected to be thicker.
As such, temperatures have ended up a bit cooler for most of the area, and this will likely put a damper on severe weather for most of the area this evening. On Friday, showers and thunderstorms will likely linger into the morning, with additional development as early as midday as the upper trough axis moves in from the west. The severe threat is still a little uncertain, but it appears that at least a few strong to severe updrafts are possible thanks to cooler air aloft and surface dewpoints remaining in the upper 60s to near 70 degrees.
201 PM EDT Thu Jun 24 2021 High pressure drifting across the Canadian maritimes will keep fair weather over our region through Friday.
NW winds at 5 to 15mph with a few afternoon gusts to 20 to 25mph with mixing bringing afternoon highs into the low to mids 80s. Overnight a few showers and thunderstorms will slowly try to creep into eastern ND as midlevel trough/forcing in western Dakotas approaches. Fridays temps should be a bit cooler with the increased cloud cover with highs around 80. Ensemble guidance suggests this is our best shot at precipitation for awhile, as very strong ridging will settle in over the area, drying us out and keeping us stuck in a pattern of 80s temperatures.
Bermuda high holds strong into the late weekend, as well as ML/UL ridge axis.
Continued upper ridging will try its best to suppress precip on Fri, but still anticipate similar coverage to what we're currently seeing out there this afternoon.
346 PM CDT Thu Jun 24 2021 Summary: A cold front over far southeastern portion of the CWA will move southeastward out of the area by this evening.
Boxell (Issued 237 PM CDT Thu Jun 24 2021) Friday night through Thursday: A trough will gradually move from the Plains across southern Wisconsin through the weekend. There is still quite a range among guidance on the placement of this trough as it moves through the Great Lakes Region.
Gusty south to southwesterly winds will continue into early evening, with low level wind shear developing afterward as the low level jet strengthens. Initial focus is ongoing MCS spreading toward NE KS and scattered convection within the low level jet axis all of which is likely to diminish and/or translate more eastward away from the forecast area. Isolated afternoon convection within the higher terrain of SE OK / NW AR is possible but any coverage will remain very low. The more likely corridor of increasing shower and storm chances will be along the slowly advancing cold front.
341 PM EDT Thu Jun 24 2021 High pressure will remain over the area through tonight.
Storms are also expected to develop in western KS associated with the cold front or dryline, and any discrete cells initially should grow upscale as boundaries interact with each other. Another round of severe weather then becomes possible during the afternoon and evening with the cold front bisecting the area.
252 PM CDT Thu Jun 24 2021 The cold front has moved through most of the forecast area except for southeastern Minnesota and parts of west central Wisconsin. After any storms exit this evening we will be dry through most of Friday before low pressure moving south of the area through Iowa brings back the chance for showers to southern parts of the forecast area Friday night. Temperatures won't change much behind the front with Friday being only slightly cooler than today, but with more comfortable dewpoints for all.
A sprawling mid-level ridge remains in place across the south-central CONUS with the axis of this ridge directly over North/Central TX. Subsidence from this ridge will result in temperatures rising into the upper 90s across the region.