Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
At the surface, high pressure was centered over the Dakotas while a low was over southern Alberta, Saskatchewan, and north central Montana. Today, the ridge axis will move over the Dakotas, while a warm front will push into western North Dakota. Expect mostly sunny skies to start the day, with an increase in mid-high clouds from the west this afternoon as the next trough approaches.
358 AM EDT Thu Mar 31 2022 A passing cold front will bring chances of showers and storms, as well as high winds today. For the rest of the region, showers may also result in a mixing down of the low level jet, with wind gusts from 30-40 mph. A cold front will provide shower enhancement as it passes through this morning. The storm mode for today will likely be isolated cells within the warm sector and then a broken squall line ahead/along the the cold front. Though storms should leave our area tomorrow night, there will still be enough low-level moisture for orographic lifting to maintain showers in the ridges of WV tonight.
Look for the freezing drizzle potential to slide southeastward with time early this morning. Ongoing spring storm will continue as a mixture of snow, sleet, freezing rain and even some rain this afternoon.
At the time of this discussion an upper level low is moving through central Kansas and the lift has provided an area of flurries and light snow from Hays to Johnson. This light snow will continue to move south and east with the low and this activity should be out of the area by sunrise. For today as the low moves to the east we should have warm air advection come in with an approaching ridge from the Rockies. 850 mb winds will increase out of the southwest and should bring in warmer air above the surface. Overall lows should be a bit warmer as we fall into the low 30s in the north to the mid and upper 30s in the south.
Showers will linger today on the tails of a departing trough of low pressure. Temperatures will be cold enough for snow in the higher terrain. Gusty westerly winds persist throughout today behind a cold front.
Temperatures today will struggle to rise above the low 40s in the midst of overcast skies and the second cold front passing through the CWA through the day. Snow accumulations are not expected, as temperatures will stay around or slightly above freezing near the surface. Showers will end from northwest to southeast when the upper-level forcing is shunted east, allowing high pressure and upper-level ridging to build into the region. Overnight, efficient radiational cooling from clear skies and light winds will cool temperatures below freezing across much of the area.
After a fair and cool night tonight, a weak cold front will bring a chance of showers back to northern Coconino, Navajo and Apache counties Thursday afternoon.
1013 PM CDT Wed Mar 30 2022 Updated the forecast tonight to increase snow chances southwest/south where the vorticity maximum will be passing near as the mid-level trough pushes through.
209 AM EDT Thu Mar 31 2022 A powerful and deep low pressure system initially in central Illinois this evening will strengthen further as it moves into northern Lower Michigan by Thursday morning.
1048 PM CDT Wed Mar 30 2022 Low pressure will drift eastward tonight with some wrap around moisture expected.
209 AM MDT Thu Mar 31 2022 PacNW trof moving into the region overnight will be the main weather feature in the short term. As trof moves out of the Rockies and across the high plains today, the main energy will remain north of our CWA. Although there is a chance some snow may mix with rain in the lower elevations and foothills today, any significant accumulations will likely remain in the high country where 3-6 inches of snow is possible. A secondary impulse will drop down the front range and into the the main trof this evening.
1231 AM CDT Thu Mar 31 2022 Updated the forecast tonight to increase snow chances southwest/south where the vorticity maximum will be passing near as the mid-level trough pushes through.
124 AM CDT Thu Mar 31 2022 An upper level low exited to the east this morning as another low enters the forecast area form the north. Temperatures were in the lower to middle 30s. An upper level low, currently centered over western Nebraska, will continue to track south out of the state tonight. The highest final snow totals are expected to be in the Sandhills and northern Nebraska. Precipitation would start on the Pine Ridge in the form of snow or a rain snow mix.
205 AM MDT Thu Mar 31 2022 Models were in good agreement earlier today with an upper level trough, located over Wyoming at 12z Wednesday, crossing northeast Colorado and Northwest Kansas early tonight. Thursday will be sunny and warmer given improving downslope flow and warming boundary layer temperatures.
1206 AM CDT Thu Mar 31 2022 The cold front has moved through the state and the rain has ended. The low pressure area has moved off to the northeast but low clouds continue to linger.
Upper level flow will become zonal in wake of the departing trough. High temperatures will be right around normal for this time of year in the low to mid 70s.
1053 PM CDT Wed Mar 30 2022 An upper level low exited to the east this morning as another low enters the forecast area form the north. Temperatures were in the lower to middle 30s. An upper level low, currently centered over western Nebraska, will continue to track south out of the state tonight. The highest final snow totals are expected to be in the Sandhills and northern Nebraska. Precipitation would start on the Pine Ridge in the form of snow or a rain snow mix.
1041 PM MDT Wed Mar 30 2022 Models were in good agreement earlier today with an upper level trough, located over Wyoming at 12z Wednesday, crossing northeast Colorado and Northwest Kansas early tonight. Thursday will be sunny and warmer given improving downslope flow and warming boundary layer temperatures.
1127 PM MDT Wed Mar 30 2022 Some lingering clouds, as well as light snow shower activity over the higher terrain, continue this hour. A transient ridge of high pressure will build in this evening, bringing that dry air as well as clear skies and unseasonably cold temperatures.
Rain will mix with and change to snow tonight north with little Complex low pressure system brought high winds and widespread mostly light to moderate showers to central last evening and into this overnight. The first one is a negatively tilted trough that is pivoting northeast over west central and southern Illinois. The negatively tilted trough will pivot into eastern Michigan by 12z this morning. More showers will move in from the northwest late morning and afternoon today as the Kansas wave moves across Kentucky tonight and the northern follows only slightly later, over the lower Great Lakes.
Surface observations show the cloud coverage is keeping temperatures on the warmer side, with Huron coming in 5 degrees warmer than Pierre mainly due to the stratus radiating longwave energy back to the surface. Given the ample stratus upstream of the region, am leaning towards keeping the stratus in place for the majority of the morning hours, and starting the clearing from west to east as the upper level ridge axis slides eastwards during the afternoon hours. At the surface, a Clipper will be moving eastwards across southern Canada, dragging a weak cold front across central SD prior to daybreak.
Forecast Summary: Light snow ending this morning with warmer temperatures today. Today: Amplified troughing from the Great Plains into MS Valley is comprised of multiple, prominent vorticity maxima, per early morning water vapor imagery. There could be some slick spots on area roads (especially bridges and overpasses), so morning commuters should plan accordingly. Otherwise, a downslope-induced warming regime will spread east from the High Plains today, supporting a rebound in temperatures with highs in the 40s to around 50.
Behind this squall line and incoming cold front later this morning, surface pressure gradients will be favorably aligned with the TN valley from southwest to northeast.
A line of strong to severe storms continues to track through the TN Valley along a pre-frontal trough axis. A tight pressure gradient ahead of the pre-frontal trough had resulted in wind gusts measured up to 55 mph outside of any thunderstorm activity, resulting in numerous trees and powerlines down as well as some structure damage across the area. We expect the line of storms to push out of northeast Alabama by 3 AM, but additional showers are possible overnight as the actual cold front advances eastward. The cold front should be exiting northeast Alabama early tomorrow morning, leaving moderate westerly winds in its wake. The cold front and prefrontal precip will be well east of the area tomorrow and high pressure will be re-establishing from the northwest. Temps will be noticeably cooler than on Wednesday, falling into the mid 60s.
338 AM CDT Thu Mar 31 2022 High pressure is building into the region early this morning, with clear skies across central SD and lingering stratus over the eastern CWA. Winds will be lighter today compared to yesterday as the high pressure remains in place.
1015 PM CDT Wed Mar 30 2022 Wx map shows cold front moving across C and SW LA, just past AEX and LCH at 10 PM. Expect the cooler and drier air to filter across the region with lows in the upper 40s to near 50 expected by daybreak Thursday. DML Expect northwest to north winds of 15-20 kts behind the cold front, with Small Craft Exercise Caution for the 0-20 nm marine zones. /issued 350 PM CDT Wed Mar 30 2022/ First off, have dropped the wrn half of the High Wind Warning area as sfc obs show winds drop off quick behind the squall line.
Expect clouds to rapidly clear across the area this morning as the responsible disturbance continues to push southeast and get absorbed into the large trough of low pressure across the Great Lakes region. This should allow afternoon temps to reach the lower to mid-50s as dewpoints drop into the teens. this ridge will be transitory.
1132 PM CDT Wed Mar 30 2022 (This evening through Thursday) Our upper level trough will continue to move off to the east along with the stratus and rain chances. With all of our area behind this mornings cold front passage, gusty north-northwesterly winds will continue until after sundown. It will be much colder tonight with radiational cooling enhancement with temperatures dropping near to just below freezing across northern Oklahoma, to mid to upper 30s across much of the remainder of our Oklahoma areas, to lower 40s near and south of the Red River into northern Texas. Thursday afternoons temperatures will stay slightly cooler than seasonably average for the end of March.
338 AM EDT Thu Mar 31 2022 Discussion/Marine - Rain Through This Morning With Some Fog - The bulk of the rain showers associated with a warm front have passed north but additional showers are still expected through the rest of the morning as the low pressure center tracks through Lower Michigan. This fog is expected to dissipate later this morning as the low center tracks north and the cold front passes through the area with winds shifting westerly and drier air filtering in behind it. - Gusty Winds East of US-131 - Winds will peak this morning for the I-69 corridor north towards Mount Pleasant and Clare as the deepening low pressure center approaches.
This upper low will keep skies at least mostly cloudy this afternoon and bring a chance of light rain showers across the Quad State. Lows tonight are forecast to be in the lower half of the 30s with below freezing values mainly limited to climatologically favored locations.
1223 AM CDT Thu Mar 31 2022 (The rest of tonight) We've had some clearing this evening in the wake of the upper low that brought the early morning severe weather and spotty showers this afternoon. Thus, despite forecast lows near freezing tonight, this forecast will follow the same philosophy as the day shift by holding off on frost/freeze headlines.
As this activity moves through the area today, a rain/snow mix is expected over the higher terrain of the Ozarks Plateau where temperatures will top out in the upper 30s, with all rain elsewhere with highs in the 40s. With a cold airmass in place and clearing skies, tonight will see temperatures drop into the mid to upper 20s across much of the area, with even the warmer locations dropping to 32 degrees.
152 AM EDT Thu Mar 31 2022 Gusty southerly winds continue with VFR conditions as high pressure remains in control for the next few hours. However, high pressure control wanes today as a cold front approaches.
The departing short wave give way to short wave ridging moving overhead which will allow temperatures to climb to values closer to seasonal averages this afternoon.
417 AM PDT Thu Mar 31 2022 A deep marine layer will continue into the weekend with night and morning coastal low clouds extending well inland, onto the lower coastal mountain slopes at times with some patchy drizzle this morning.
From synopsis, fresh to strong breezes through early afternoon will gradually slacken, becoming moderate to fresh late this afternoon, as strong high pressure centered over Bermuda continues to slide eastward into the central Atlantic.
Mid level trough continues to push eastward today with remaining energy mainly north of the region and a more zonal flow setting up across South Texas. At the surface, ridge shifts north of the region with northeasterly to easterly flow enhancing a sea breeze this afternoon. Temperatures today will be very warm again west, but should be a bit cooler through the coastal counties due to onshore flow.
Areas of clouds this morning will give way to mostly sunny and brisk conditions this afternoon, as Pacific high pressure continues to build in.
Mainly sunny skies are expected at least through the morning with cirrus coverage increasing this afternoon ahead of an upper trough approaching from the west. The warmer temperatures and spring sunshine should help to melt any snow remaining on the plains. Increasing forcing, instability and moisture associated with the arrival of the upper trough will lead to chances for rain and snow across much of the area tonight into Friday. Snow amounts over the Black Hills will be highly dependent on elevation, as the higher elevations will change over to snow earlier, allowing for a longer time for snow to accumulate. Northeastern Wyoming will generally see a dusting to around an inch of snow, with lighter amounts to the north and slightly higher amounts possible over the higher terrain of southwestern Campbell county.
Temperatures today will struggle to rise above the low 40s in the midst of overcast skies and the second cold front passing through the CWA through the day. Snow accumulations are not expected, as temperatures will stay around or slightly above freezing near the surface. Showers will end from northwest to southeast when the upper-level forcing is shunted east, allowing high pressure and upper-level ridging to build into the region. Overnight, efficient radiational cooling from clear skies and light winds will cool temperatures below freezing across much of the area. Friday will be dry and feature a warming trend when the high moves east and weak southerly winds aid to bolster temperatures.
* Below normal temperatures today- tonight, with temperatures falling below freezing tonight.
Despite the insolation temperatures will top out cooler than normal.
The departing short wave give way to short wave ridging moving overhead which will allow temperatures to climb to values closer to seasonal averages this afternoon. Temperatures on Friday will be right around normal for this time of year, both morning lows and daytime highs, maybe a little warmer in some spots. A progressive and deepening upper level trough will work its way east from the Rockies into the Plains states as the day progresses.
Guidance continues to favor near record heat, however, upper level clouds from the cold front currently located from the northeastern GOMEX up into north Florida have already reached east central Florida.
649 AM CDT Thu Mar 31 2022 Key Messages: - Light snow, patchy freezing drizzle this morning - Temperatures getting closer to seasonal normals Today and Tonight: Final phase of our mid-week system is underway with light snow on its backside before it finally departs today. Other concern with the intrusion of drier mid-level air is the potential for some patchy freezing drizzle through mid-morning. Have added this to the forecast as a possibility this morning, but am not anticipating much freezing drizzle production. With lingering cyclonic flow aloft and cold advection steepening the low level lapse rates, forecast soundings today suggest the possibility for flurries/sprinkles through much of the day given the moist, slightly unstable boundary layer. Clouds should largely diminish overnight as weak ridging builds in with lows dipping into the teens in the favored bog areas, mid 20s elsewhere.
639 AM CDT Thu Mar 31 2022 A closed upper low is currently dropping southeast across Kansas. For today, northwest flow aloft will continue with upper ridging and warm air advection. Upstream, an upper trough will cross the Rockies. Went cooler with highs east of Valentine through North Platte (upper 40s to lower 50s) due to recent snowfall and cooler temperatures aloft from the departing upper trough to the east. Tonight, the upper trough will approach the area, with an increase in mid and high cloudiness, and increasing chances for light snow after midnight across the northwest Sandhills. Friday, the upper trough will extend north to south from North Dakota into Oklahoma. As cold front will also advance eastward, with a breezy north wind across the southwest.
Temperatures trend warmer mid to late week. Therefore high temperatures will likely be a few degrees warmer as well. Ridging moves over California, bringing warmer temperatures and mild weather for the rest of the week. A weak system will bring slightly cooler temperatures over the weekend.
Friday, another trough will move into the region, inducing a westerly downslope warming component into the mix and finally adding about 10F or more to afternoon highs, bringing them once again above normal.
Temperatures this morning are running a few degrees cooler compared to 24 hours ago with less widespread cloud cover, at least across much of the region.
with afternoon highs hovering in the upper 30s across the western half of the CWA and only reaching the lower 40s east of I-57. Overnight lows will range from the middle 20s northwest of the Illinois River to the lower 30s near the Indiana border. High pressure will bring improving conditions for Friday.
Once this line exits we will see low level clouds as the the upper level low swings into the region and perhaps some light drizzle or rain, but will leave out after sunrise. Clouds begin to clear this afternoon as high pressure build in for the afternoon. Skies will be generally sunny as high pressure will be in full control.
Cold front is just east of I-75. CD Chattanooga Airport, TN 67 42 62 39 66 / 10 10 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 70 42 59 36 65 / 10 20 0 0 10 Oak Ridge, TN 68 41 59 36 63 / 20 30 0 0 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 71 40 54 32 62 / 20 50 0 0 10.
At the surface, high pressure was centered over the Dakotas while a low was over southern Alberta, Saskatchewan, and north central Montana. Today, the ridge axis will move over the Dakotas, while a warm front will push into western North Dakota. Expect mostly sunny skies to start the day, with an increase in mid-high clouds from the west this afternoon as the next trough approaches. Lows Friday morning shouldn't be as cold as they were Thursday morning with the westerly flow and warmer air. Though a trough is expected to cross the Dakotas on Friday, minimal cold air advection associated with a weak front will keep highs mild, in the upper 40s to mid 50s. The trough axis and cold air aloft will be centered over the state in the afternoon, which should lead to some weak diurnal instability.
702 AM EDT Thu Mar 31 2022 A cold front will pass across the area this morning.
High pressure is building into the region early this morning, with clear skies across central SD and lingering stratus over the eastern CWA. Winds will be lighter today compared to yesterday as the high pressure remains in place.
Do think they will see some sun so kept highs in the low 30s, but will keep an eye on the area.
Weak high pressure aloft will bring drier conditions to the region later today into early Friday.
Current water vapor satellite imagery shows an upper level trough moving through our area. The northeast looks to get more snow with around 1 to 2 inches for the Big Hole mtns and 1 to 4 inches around Island Park with the higher amounts along the Montana Divide and the Wyoming border above 6500 ft. Weak high pressure builds in Friday bringing dry conditions.
812 AM EDT Thu Mar 31 2022 A passing cold front will keep showers and storms in the forecast today, as well as high winds. A cold front, currently entering central Ohio, will advance a line of showers across the region between 15Z and 20Z. The threat for isolated storms will decrease this afternoon in the wake of the cold front. Though storms should leave our late Friday evening, there will still be enough low-level moisture for orographic lifting to maintain showers in the ridges of WV early Friday morning. A secondary cold frontal boundary rotating through on Friday morning may provide enough upward motion to tap into the DGZ, and manifest into a snow squall.
Afternoon temperatures are forecast to range from the lower 50s across north central KS to the upper 40s in eastern KS. The next midlevel trough axis is progged to traverse the central Plains Friday.
This upper low will keep skies at least mostly cloudy this afternoon and bring a chance of light rain showers across the Quad State. Lows tonight are forecast to be in the lower half of the 30s with below freezing values mainly limited to climatologically favored locations. As the upper trough moves east of the region tonight, high pressure moves in for Friday, resulting in calm winds and mostly clear skies.
Strong cold front from last night now well east. The cold front made it through Middle Tennessee last night and has left us with only a few lingering showers and MVFR ceilings. Low clouds will stay around at least through morning and back again this evening as the upper trough swings across the mid state and brings another swath of moisture with it.
High pressure will return through the first part of the weekend.
At any rate, high pressure will move into the region tonight, with winds diminishing and clouds clearing out. The result of this will be temperatures in the lower to mid 30s in much of Arkansas. Cold snap will be brief, as the high pressure shifts eastward on Friday, and temperatures warm as winds become more southerly.
A weak cold front will bring a chance of showers back to northern Coconino, Navajo and Apache counties this afternoon and evening.
Another upper level trough will approach from the west this afternoon with moisture starting to increase again over the western mountains. Low temperatures tonight should be more mild with increasing cloud cover and lee troughing across the southeast plains kicking up winds later tonight as the upper trough and associated cold front crosses the mountains.
A few scattered areas of light snow remain over NW AR in association with cold core upper low. Temperatures have remainder above freezing and therefore do not expect any travel concerns for the afternoon commute. The Tulsa metro is forecast to stay just above freezing (hopefully) but patchy frost will still be possible.
Look for dry weather on Friday with highs in the lower to middle 40s.
The next upper trough will begin to move into the Plains late tonight into tomorrow. However, the snow covered areas in far southeastern ND and west central MN have not seen much melting today, so will most likely be a bit cooler than the rest of the area tomorrow. The upper trough will push into MN late Friday into Friday afternoon. With regards to temps, average to slightly above will prevail; we are looking at a stretch with highs in the 40s and lows staying just a bit below freezing.