Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Satl imagery shows the center of the persistent ridge over the fore corners region of the Desert SW. Tomorrow should finally break the streak of 100+ days as the ridge retrogrades a little further west allowing cooler temps aloft.
1147 AM MDT FRI AUG 14 2015 VERY SUBTLE CHANGES TO THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN WITH A UPPER HIGH RIDGE FROM THE FOUR CORNERS NORTH INTO SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. A UPPER LOW WAS SPINNING OFF THE OR/NORTHERN CA COAST. WITH A TROUGH ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST. SURGES OF MONSOON MOISTURE WITH EMBEDDED WEAK DISTURBANCES ROTATING CLOCKWISE AROUND RIDGE TRIGGERED CLUSTERS OF DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL HOLD SWAY OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS TODAY WITH NORTHWEST STEERING FLOW ALOFT.
LESS STORM COVERAGE AND WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY.
SITTING UNDER A WELL AMPLIFIED RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NORTH FROM HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE DESERT SW THROUGH THE NRN ROCKIES. WHILE TROUGHS OF LOW PRESSURE AFFECT THE GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST AND PAC NW REGIONS. WITH THE CWA SET UP BETWEEN ELONGATED HIGH PRESSURE FROM MO TOWARD THE EAST COAST. AND A TROUGH OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. WITH MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING REMAINING THE PRIMARY FEATURE ACROSS THE AREA. SHIFTING THE RIDGE AXIS TO A SW/NE ORIENTATION BY THE END OF THE DAY TOMORROW. WITH TIME AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN OVER THE NRN ROCKIES/PLAINS AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. WITH THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING SOUTH THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS. PERHAPS A FEW DEGREES WARMER IN THE LOW/MID 90S.
232 PM MDT FRI AUG 14 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW MEXICO CONTINUES TO RECIRCULATE MOISTURE TODAY WITH LIGHT STEERING WINDS AND PW VALUES REMAINING AROUND 1 INCH AT GRAND JUNCTION ACCORDING TO THE 12Z GJT RAOB. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL UNDERNEATH THIS HIGH PRESSURE. CAUSING THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO FLATTEN AND THE MOISTURE THAT WAS OVER THE GREAT BASIN TO LAY ACROSS OUR AREA.
A WARMING TREND IS UNDERWAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVER THE REGION FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
High pressure looks to hold firm across the Ohio river valley through much of the short term.
639 PM EDT FRI AUG 14 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION INTO TOMORROW. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S IN SOUTHEAST INDIANA TO THE MIDDLE 60S IN SOUTHERN MICHIGAN. ON SAT UPR RIDGE FOLDS EWD ACRS THE LAKES W/APPRECIABLE HGT RISES ALOFT. OTRWS BASED ON UPSTREAM TEMPS ALREADY INTO THE UPR 80S-90 WILL BRIDGE MAX TEMPS HIGHER.
A LOW LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH NOW ADVANCING WEST TOWARD THE REGION IS THE LEADING EDGE OF MOISTURE RETURN BACK INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY. AIDING IN THIS POSITIVE LOCAL WEATHER PATTERN EVOLUTION WILL BE A DISTURBANCE DROPPING DOWN OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE CENTER TO OUR WEST EARLY TOMORROW.
DUNN /ISSUED 1228 PM CDT FRI AUG 14 2015/ UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER NEW MEXICO WITH NORTHERLY FLOW OVER MUCH OF THE GREAT PLAINS. WITH A FEW OF THE NORMALLY WARMER SPOTS AROUND 80. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SHIFT SOUTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A PIECE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.
341 PM MDT FRI AUG 14 2015 SCTD STORMS WERE NOTED OVER MAINLY THE HIGHER TRRN AT 3 PM. ISOLD TSRA WERE OVER THE HIGH VALLEYS. MORE ISOLD PRECIP WILL BE OVER THE REST OF THE HIGHER TRRN AND VALLEYS.
352 PM CDT FRI AUG 14 2015 UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS TO THE WEST.
1112 AM MDT FRI AUG 14 2015 STRONG UPPER HIGH PERSISTS OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SOME CLOUDS STREAMING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE RIDGE. TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS HAS HIGHLY AMPLIFIED FLOW WITH LARGE RIDGE ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. AND CUT-OFF LOW OFF THE OREGON COAST. HIGH PRESSURE IS IN CONTROL WITH 2 AM TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S. UPPER RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. UPPER LOW OFF THE COAST LIFTS THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. FLATTENING THE RIDGE ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS AREA. LOW TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT.
132 PM EDT FRI AUG 14 2015 A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT.
331 PM CDT FRI AUG 14 2015 THE UA RIDGE CENTERED ACROSS NWRN NM LATE THIS AFTN. THE LOCATION OF THE SAID UA RIDGE HAS RESULTED IN NRLY FLOW ALOFT. WITH WHAT APPEARS TO BE A FEW WEAK EMBEDDED IMPULSES ROUNDING THE ERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. CONVECTION ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SE CO AND THE TX PANHANDLE GENERATED AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WHICH SAGGED ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTH PLAINS EARLIER THIS MORNING. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL BE CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS GIVEN THE UA RIDGE NOT BEING DIRECTLY OVERHEAD /UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S ON THE CAPROCK TO LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S OFF THE CAPROCK/. AS UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES VERY SLOW SHIFT BACK TO THE WEST. THE MONSOONAL FLOW WRAPPING AROUND THE DIFLUENT EASTERN PART OF THE RIDGE WILL SLOWLY THIN.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL THIS WEEKEND AS A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE STATE. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON. THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION WILL BUILD WESTWARD INTO CALIFORNIA. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM SEVERAL DEGREES THIS WEEKEND IN RESPONSE TO THE BUILDING RIDGE.
220 PM CDT FRI AUG 14 2015 SURFACE AND UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MAINTAINING DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN EVOLVES LATE IN THE WEEKEND WITH A NEARLY STATIONARY TROUGH SETTING UP FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES HIGH NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WITH RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS BRINGING VERY WARM TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA. WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING WITH SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW CONTINUING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. VERY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE AREA BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT COMES PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA ALONG WITH AN AFFILIATED STRONG SHORT WAVE.
OVER THE SUMMER TEMPERATURES HAVE GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL AS THE RIDGE ALOFT HAS MIGRATED AROUND AND OVER TEXAS AND LOUISIANA. THAT IS BEGINNING TO CHANGE AS THE RIDGE ALOFT LOOKS TO BE MOVING BACK TO THE WEST.
More storms are possible Saturday afternoon, mainly across SE NM and the higher terrain. Satl imagery shows the center of the persistent ridge over the fore corners region of the Desert SW. Tomorrow should finally break the streak of 100+ days as the ridge retrogrades a little further west allowing cooler temps aloft.
TOWARD MORNING PATCHY THIN BR MAY OCCUR, HOWEVER PROB IS LOW AND CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BE MVRF AT THE LOWEST. BUT THE LOWER RH NUMBERS WILL MAKE IT A BIT LESS STICKY.
245 PM CDT FRI AUG 14 2015 HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER CENTRAL ILLINOIS THIS AFTERNOON AND WEAK WSW WINDS. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE AS IT PASSES WITH THE RIDGE ANCHORED AT THE SFC. THIS EVOLUTION TENDS TO BEGIN BREAKING DOWN THE 597 HM RIDGE NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS THIS MORNING AND SHUNTING SOME OF THE HIGHER HEIGHTS EASTWARD INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
SURFACE INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDS FROM MISSISSIPPI NORTHWARD INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR CONVECTION LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LACK OF CU FIELD SHOWS WESTERN EXTENT OF INVERTED TROUGH. UPPER RIDGE HAS RETROGRADED WESTWARD ALLOWING AN UPPER TROUGH TO DOMINATE EASTERN U. SURFACE BERMUDA RIDGE WILL KEEP MOISTURE FEED INTO OUR AREA AND WITH UPPER TROUGH RESIDING OVER THE AREA THINK WE COULD SEE SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION MOST ANY TIME DAY OR NIGHT AS WE GO THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
445 PM EDT FRI AUG 14 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE TONIGHT.
401 PM EDT FRI AUG 14 2015 A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES TONIGHT AND CROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY.
A weak inverted trough will lend to light and variable surface winds from highway 83 to the colorado line.
314 PM CDT FRI AUG 14 2015 RIDGING ALOFT WILL FLATTEN HEADING INTO SATURDAY.
LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. AS MAIN TROF AXIS AT 500 MB PUSHES THROUGH EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS TO ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP BEGINNING AROUND MIDDAY. VERY WARM UPPER RIDGE WILL BE SPRAWLED FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION SATURDAY. A PIECE OF IT WILL SPILL AROUND A LOOSELY DEFINED UPPER LOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY.
THANKS TO A STRONG STATIONARY CENTER OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE 4 CORNER STATES TODAY. AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA. MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS WILL REMAIN IN A TROUGHING PATTERN WITH NW FLOW REGIME ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. IT WILL TRANSITION TO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WHICH WILL REMAIN OVER KY OR POINTS JUST SOUTH THIS EVENING AND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. WITH A RIDGE VALLEY SPLIT OF AT LEAST 5 DEGREES LIKELY. AFTERNOON HEATING WILL LIKELY INTERACT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
257 PM EDT FRI AUG 14 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT EAST TO THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST THIS EVENING.
WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION HELPING TO GENERATE A WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENT LINE. WITH WARMER AIR INVADING FROM THE WEST.
A DECREASE IN MONSOON THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS OVER ARIZONA. WITH VERY HOT AFTERNOONS AT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. MONSOON MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE STATE.
UPPER RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE AREA SATURDAY. NOT SEEING A TRIGGER FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE RIDGE.
603 PM EDT FRI AUG 14 2015 HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES INTO THE WEEKEND WITH WEAK WIND FLOW.
144 PM EDT FRI AUG 14 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST TONIGHT. ALLOWING A WEAK COLD FRONT TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
COULD SEE THIS TREND CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR ALOFT FILTERS DOWN FROM THE NORTH AROUND THE TOP OF THE UPPER RIDGE TO OUR WEST. MAINLY TO NUDGE POPS UP OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN AND LOWER POPS A TAD ON THE PLAINS. LASTLY TEMP FCST STILL ON TRACK WITH CURRENT TEMPS ON THE PLAINS ALREADY IN THE LOW/MID 80S.
321 PM CDT FRI AUG 14 2015 THE UA RIDGE CENTERED ACROSS NWRN NM LATE THIS AFTN. THE LOCATION OF THE SAID UA RIDGE HAS RESULTED IN NRLY FLOW ALOFT. WITH WHAT APPEARS TO BE A FEW WEAK EMBEDDED IMPULSES ROUNDING THE ERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. CONVECTION ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SE CO AND THE TX PANHANDLE GENERATED AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WHICH SAGGED ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTH PLAINS EARLIER THIS MORNING. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL BE CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS GIVEN THE UA RIDGE NOT BEING DIRECTLY OVERHEAD /UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S ON THE CAPROCK TO LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S OFF THE CAPROCK/. AS UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES VERY SLOW SHIFT BACK TO THE WEST. THE MONSOONAL FLOW WRAPPING AROUND THE DIFLUENT EASTERN PART OF THE RIDGE WILL SLOWLY THIN.
154 PM EDT FRI AUG 14 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATER TODAY AND ESPECIALLY TONIGHT CAUSING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
215 PM EDT FRI AUG 14 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE TONIGHT.
WITH A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH/POSSIBLY MERGING INTO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM E CENTRAL FL FROM ABOUT CAPE CANAVERAL NEWD INTO THE ATLC NEAR 31N79W. LOWS TONIGHT COMFORTABLE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.
1123 AM MDT FRI AUG 14 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER NORTHWEST NEW MEXICO TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEK. OR JUST A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL BENEATH THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE. A TROUGH WILL MOVE ALONG THE U. DRAGGING A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THE HIGH CENTER WILL BE PUSHED WEST AND SOUTH ALLOWING SOME OF THE WEST WIND FLOW INTO THE AREA.
THE SURFACE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS WILL BE RIDGING INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS THIS WEEKEND. THE HIGHEST STORM COVERAGE WILL BE OVER THE INTERIOR DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
442 PM MDT FRI AUG 14 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW MEXICO CONTINUES TO RECIRCULATE MOISTURE TODAY WITH LIGHT STEERING WINDS AND PW VALUES REMAINING AROUND 1 INCH AT GRAND JUNCTION ACCORDING TO THE 12Z GJT RAOB. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL UNDERNEATH THIS HIGH PRESSURE. CAUSING THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO FLATTEN AND THE MOISTURE THAT WAS OVER THE GREAT BASIN TO LAY ACROSS OUR AREA.
443 PM EDT FRI AUG 14 2015 A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WITH INCREASING WARMTH AND HUMIDITY WILL SUPPORT A SMALL CHANCE OF RAIN THROUGH SATURDAY. OTHER INHIBITING FACTORS INCLUDE WARMING MID LEVELS WHICH WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY/EXPLOSIVE POTENTIAL THROUGH THE NEAR TERM PERIOD DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF THE MID/UPR TROUGH. AND LOW CHANCE NUMBERS ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME SCATTERED PULSE THUNDERSTORMS BLOOMING IN THE AFTERNOON WARMTH AS THE WEAK MID/UPPER TROUGH SLIDES OVER THE UPPER OHIO.
WITH A FEW OF THE NORMALLY WARMER SPOTS AROUND 80. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SHIFT SOUTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A PIECE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.
BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED LATE MON NIGHT ACROSS NW SD AS THE WAVE APPROACHES AND AS A STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA.
/ISSUED 617 PM CDT SUN APR 3 2016/ SOUTHWEST WINDS AT AMA WILL SWING AROUND TO THE NORTH WITH THE PASSAGE OF A TROUGH BY LATE THIS EVENING.
A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH WILL HELP KEEP A LIGHT SWRLY WIND IN PLACE AND INCREASE MOISTURE TO OUR WEST.
LOOK FOR MORE SPRING-LIKE READINGS TOMORROW, WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE MAINLY EAST OF I-65 AS A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE MID STATE. THIS WILL COOL US OFF BY A FEW DEGREES, BUT FREEZING TEMPS SHOULD BE AVERTED. LOOKING AHEAD, THE LONGER RANGE MODELS KEEP MIDDLE TENNESSEE UNDER A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN THROUGH 240 HRS WITH A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS OVER THE NEXT 10 DAYS.
A surface analysis this afternoon showed high pressure across the TN valley and southeast US while a 998 mb low pressure was across western Wisconsin. High pressure building south out of the Great Lakes Monday night will bring lighter winds to the area, setting the stage for a potential freeze for some locations, mainly north of the KY parkways. The only limiting factor that could keep temperatures above freezing is strato-cumulus clouds slow to dissipate across the northern Bluegrass. If skies do clear out, then there's above average confidence for sub-freezing conditions.
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUING WITH AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS EDGING FROM THE GREAT BASIN THIS EVENING TO THE SOUTHERN PLATEAU MONDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES WILL OPEN THE DOOR FOR SURFACE RIDGING TO SPILL INTO THE CENTER OF THE NATION. TEMPERATURES WILL ACTUALLY BE NEAR TO SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY WITH ANOTHER DAY OF FULL INSOLATION.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE CAROLINAS MONDAY EVENING.
611 PM CDT SUN APR 3 2016 Breezy southwesterly winds and relative humidity values in the lower 20 percent range will continue extreme fire weather conditions for the remainder of the afternoon for much of the area. A cooler day is expected on Monday as an upper trough dives into the Ohio Valley, ushering in cooler and drier air upon northeasterly surface winds.
PREVAILING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF AND ACROSS FL WILL KEEP THE CURRENT BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN IN PLACE THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. CONDITIONS HAVE BECOME DRIER AND COOLER TODAY IN THE WAKE OF A FRONTAL PASSAGE ACROSS THE AREA.
Broad ridging west of Kansas, with gentle, dry NW flow aloft. A very weak cold front will drift through SW KS this evening accompanied by a northerly wind shift, but that is it. Little if any cold air advection, so low temperatures Monday morning still several degrees above early April normals in the lower 40s.
LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS FURTHER EAST OF THE REGION THIS EVENING.
606 PM CDT SUN APR 3 2016 LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS LOW PRESSURE TRACKING SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHWEST WI. ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE BEEN OCCURRING WITH WING OF 850- 700MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND LIFT AHEAD OF THE LOW AND WARM FRONT. DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT LOOK COLDER AND QUIET AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES SOUTH OUT OF CANADA INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS. H5 RIDGE CONTINUES TO DRIFT EASTWARD FROM THE ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS STATES.
1155 PM CDT SUN APR 3 2016 HAVE ISSUED AN SPS TO COVER THE HIGHLY LOCALIZED MICROBURST THREAT OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CWA WITH THE ONGOING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. WILL SEE ANOTHER BIG DIURNAL SWING WITH READINGS BY MONDAY MORNING A GOOD 30 TO 40 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAYS HIGHS.
THERE IS A PRETTY STEEP INVERSION TONIGHT SO WENT IN AND REMOVED FROST FROM THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 43 74 42 65 / 0 10 10 0 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 43 71 38 62 / 0 30 10 0 OAK RIDGE, TN 43 73 37 62 / 0 30 10 0 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 37 66 33 55 / 0 50 30 0 TN.
634 PM CDT SUN APR 3 2016 00Z TAFS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OF THE NORTHERN GULF WILL CONTINUE TO YIELD VERY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. BY MONDAY THE HIGH WILL BE FAR ENOUGH TO THE EAST THAT THE WINDS SHOULD START TO SHIFT OUT OF A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION.
Still, have kept some low PoPs later tonight across ern portions of the CWA where the low level and upper level forcing are better. As for temps, with the warm day today, rather late fropa for most of the CWA and relatively warm airmass behind the fnt, trended twd the warmer guidance for tonight. Tilly The low currently over eastern Minnesota will be over Pennsylvania by 12Z Monday and the trailing cold front should be mostly through the CWFA by then. Highs Monday will be about 20 degrees cooler in west central Illinois than they were today. ranging to about 10 degrees cooler along the I-70 corridor. and perhaps only a few degrees cooler across the eastern Ozarks.
921 PM PDT SUN APR 3 2016 A vigorous cold front will move through the Inland Northwest during the early morning hours on Monday bringing showers and increasing west winds. Drier and much warmer weather is expected by mid to late week. A vigorous cold front is currently making its march across western OR and WA this evening. The new 00Z NAM solution came in with a slightly slower timing with the cold front as it crosses the Cascades. /SVH 00Z TAFS: A vigorous cold front passage is expected overnight. This instability looks weak, but model sounding profiles would suggest a small possibility for thunderstorms in the vicinity of KLWS and KPUW before the cold front arrives.
500 PM PDT SUN APR 3 2016 HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MONDAY.
1146 PM CDT SUN APR 3 2016 WENT AHEAD AND ADJUSTED LOW TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE INTERSTATE 30 CORRIDOR DOWN INTO THE LOW 40S TO ALIGN WITH CURRENT TEMPERATURE TRENDS.
649 PM CDT SUN APR 3 2016 HAVE ISSUED AN SPS TO COVER THE HIGHLY LOCALIZED MICROBURST THREAT OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CWA WITH THE ONGOING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. WILL SEE ANOTHER BIG DIURNAL SWING WITH READINGS BY MONDAY MORNING A GOOD 30 TO 40 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAYS HIGHS.
A weak cold front currently over northern KS will drop south into NE OK/NW AR Monday morning.
Its associated cold front will sweep through on Monday, shifting winds to the northwest and producing a few clouds. Following the FROPA, a cold dry airmass rushes back in with a high pressure system.
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWED A SHALLOW TROUGH OVER TEXAS AND A RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES. HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER THE COAST AND WINDS ACROSS OUR CWA WERE LIGHT. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE TO THE EAST BRINGING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER TEXAS. THIS WILL MEAN DRY AND WARMER THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
RIDGING AND A DRY AIRMASS OVER THE REGION WILL KEEP THINGS DRY WITH A SLOW WARMING TREND THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. WARMER TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 80S ARE EXPECTED FOR MONDAY.
THIS RESULTING IN A RATHER DEEP UPPER TROF SITUATED OVER THEERN CONUS AND UP STREAM RIDGE OVER THE WRN COASTLINE BY LATE WED AFTN. BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS RAMPS UP MONDAY EVENING JUST AHEAD OF A STRENGTHENING COLD FRONT EXTENDING ALONG THE NRN AND CNTRL HIGH PLAINS.
GUSTY NORTH WINDS SHOULD DECREASE THRU THE EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO NORTHWEST MN ON MONDAY. AS THE LOW PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST TUE NIGHT IT BECOMES WINDY AND RAIN WOULD LIKELY TURN TO LIGHT SNOW AGAIN.
DRY PLEASANT WX WILL PERSIST INTO MIDWEEK WITH RIDGING IN CONTROL.
CONTINENTAL POLAR HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW AND BUILD FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH WED. WHICH SUGGESTS TEMPERATURES TONIGHT -- WHICH HAD ALREADY DIPPED WELL INTO THE 40S IN NON-URBAN AREAS AT 10 PM-- MAY PROVE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST - UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. AMPLIFYING NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL DIVE SEWD THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY ON MONDAY AND THEN THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES MONDAY NIGHT. WARM AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH HIGHS MONDAY AFTERNOON IN THE LOWER IN THE MID 70S. COULD SEE SIMILARLY STRONG NORTHERLY POST-FRONTAL GUSTINESS FOR A FEW HOURS BEHIND THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
617 PM CDT SUN APR 3 2016 SOUTHWEST WINDS AT AMA WILL SWING AROUND TO THE NORTH WITH THE PASSAGE OF A TROUGH BY LATE THIS EVENING.
1149 PM CDT SUN APR 3 2016 06Z TAFS WINDS HAVE TURNED SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY THIS EVENING AS THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA. /ISSUED 634 PM CDT SUN APR 3 2016/ 00Z TAFS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OF THE NORTHERN GULF WILL CONTINUE TO YIELD VERY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. BY MONDAY THE HIGH WILL BE FAR ENOUGH TO THE EAST THAT THE WINDS SHOULD START TO SHIFT OUT OF A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION.
1103 PM CDT SUN APR 3 2016 A TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST WHICH WILL BRING A WIND SHIFT TO THE REGION THIS EVENING. RIDGE SET UP OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WHICH WILL SLIDE EAST FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK. AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION THE WESTERN CONUS RIDGE WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EAST WITH A TROUGH RIGHT ON ITS TAIL.
/ISSUED 910 PM CDT SUN APR 3 2016/ HIGH PRESSURE HAS SETTLED OVER THE MIDSOUTH THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER NORTH ALABAMA THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY. DESPITE THE COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE WARMER ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL FLATTEN AS IT SHIFTS EAST OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES ON MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A FEW MORE DEGREES WITH THE FLATTENING RIDGE OVERHEAD. THIS WILL RESULT IN HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S FOR MANY LOCATIONS ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO. UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO FLATTEN AS IT SHIFTS EAST OF THE STATE MONDAY NIGHT OPENING THE DOOR TO A PROGRESSIVE MID-LEVEL TROUGH.
A cold front will slip into northern Missouri late his evening and then through central/southern Missouri and southeast Kansas late tonight into early Monday morning. High pressure will nose into the region from the north behind the front on Monday. Short term models all show a pretty decent temperature gradient from north to south Monday afternoon, with highs expected to range from just the lower to middle 60s across central Missouri, to the lower to middle 70s near the Arkansas border.
CLOUDS BEGIN TO INCREASE TOMORROW AS A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES OUT OF THE NW AND INCREASES MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA.
1143 PM CDT SUN APR 3 2016 LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS LOW PRESSURE TRACKING SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHWEST WI. ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE BEEN OCCURRING WITH WING OF 850- 700MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND LIFT AHEAD OF THE LOW AND WARM FRONT. DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT LOOK COLDER AND QUIET AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES SOUTH OUT OF CANADA INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION.
Increasing clouds tonight ahead of an approaching cold front for tomorrow morning. Otherwise, no significant impacts to aviation as the northern Rockies remain under the influence of a weak ridge this evening.