Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
LATEST AVAILABLE COLD FRONT DROPPING INTO EAST CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND LIFTS NORTHEAST AHEAD OF DISSIPATING NORTHWEST MN MCS. AS GREATER SHEAR WORKS INTO THE REGION AS THE UPPER TROUGH TRANSLATES A BIT FARTHER EAST. THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE REGION AND THE WEAK SOUTH DAKOTA SURFACE WAVE MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE TROUGH EXITS TO THE EAST MONDAY MORNING.
THE TROUGH AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE DRAPED ACROSS THE GULF COAST WHICH WILL PRODUCE A DEEP AND UNSTABLE SW FLOW WITH MID LEVEL IMPULSES ROTATING AROUND THE TROUGH WHICH WILL ENHANCE CONVECTIVE.
1241 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015 HIGH PRESSURE HAS SHIFTED OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING THE REGION CENTERED ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SHIFT ESE TODAY BECOMING CENTERED OVER CENTRAL SD/NE BY LATE TODAY. AN UPPER TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL DRIVE A SURFACE COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE CORN BELT.
IT APPEARS THAT THE RAIN IS BECOMING MORE STRATIFORM THOUGH OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WHICH SHOULD REDUCE THE HEAVY RAIN/FLASH FLOOD THREAT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. MUCH COOLER ON MONDAY IN THE POST FRONTAL AIRMASS. UNSETTLED AND WARMER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW REMAINS OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
/ISSUED 1044 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015/ A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA TODAY.
Focus turns to Monday afternoon/evening as a cold front slides through the CWA during the afternoon. Therefore, expect convection within 0-3 hours of initiation to hold the highest potential for strong to severe storms.
RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 05/12Z UPPER-AIR PLOTS SHOW A RIDGE CENTERED OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO. A PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS SPINNING WELL WEST OF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. RADAR RAINFALL ESTIMATES WITH THESE STORMS HAVE BEEN QUITE HEALTHY AND WITH THE HIGH PW VALUE OF THIS MORNINGS SOUNDING. WE SHOULD SEE A DECREASE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS THE UPPER LOW OVER THE PACIFIC MAKES ITS WAY TOWARD THE WEST COAST AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE GREAT BASIN BY LATE IN THE WORK WEEK.
THIS IS DUE TO THE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER TROUGH IN NORTHWEST COLORADO AND A MOIST AND MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS. WE STILL EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY AND SPREAD EAST THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE UPPER TROUGH SLIDES EAST. THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT WE WILL HAVE SOME SUBSIDENCE AND DOWNSLOPING BEHIND THE TROUGH. A COLD FRONT WILL SPREAD SOUTH FROM WYOMING THIS EVENING.
335 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015 WITH A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIDING THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THE SYNOPTIC SETUP ACROSS THE CONUS FEATURES AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THE JET STREAM LIES WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CONUS AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER HUDSON BAY. WHILE MOISTURE IS DRIVEN UP AND OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE AXIS. TIMING OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IS FAIRLY UNCERTAIN AS LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE BEGUN TO SLOW FROPA DOWN COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS. WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR EXPECTED IN ITS WAKE.
503 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015 WARM BUT INCREASINGLY HUMID WEATHER WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THROUGH MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION.
204 PM PDT SUN JUL 5 2015 COOLER THIS WEEK WITH DAILY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
129 PM PDT SUN JUL 5 2015 SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY OF THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA THROUGH MONDAY.
247 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015 A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE WILL SLOWLY BUILD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY THIS UPCOMING WEEK.
COOLER WEATHER WILL ARRIVE LATE IN THE WEEK AS AN UPPER TROUGH NEARS THE AREA AND DEEPER MARINE AIR PUSHES INTO THE INTERIOR. 7MB AND IF THE MARINE AIR ON THE COAST DEEPENS OVERNIGHT TEMPS COULD BE A LITTLE COOLER THAN THE FORECAST.
327 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015 STRENGTHENING SOUTH WINDS INTO THE STATE TODAY HAS LED TO WARMER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING MOISTURE ADVECTION. IT WILL START ACTIVE ON MONDAY AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND CASTS OFF A SURFACE FRONT THAT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS IOWA DURING THE DAY. GIVEN THE BROAD REGION OF ASCENT ON THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF THE UPPER TROUGH ALONG WITH A DESTABILIZING ATMOSPHERE AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY.
1229 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015 UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING AS SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE LOW LEVEL JET. MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE TIMING OF A POTENT FRONT DROPPING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE MAIN TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. IT WILL BE COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE MID AND AND UPPER 70S. WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S.
307 PM PDT SUN JUL 5 2015 LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL BRING THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK, ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS.
648 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015 A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
347 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015 BRINGING FAIR CONDITIONS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION MONDAY.
311 PM CDT Sun Jul 5 2015 Some weak convection has developed across southwestern Missouri along an area of weak convergence in the lower atmosphere. Additional activity is ongoing across northern Arkansas in the higher terrain. More pop-up showers and thunderstorms will then be possible on Monday as a weak short wave trough pushes across the area. A cold front will then push southeast into portions of extreme southeastern Kansas and west-central Missouri Monday evening.
1211 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015 UPPER LOW OVER S CNTRL KY SHOULD CONTINUE DRIFTING SLOWLY NEWD AS THE AFTERNOON HRS PROGRESS. UPPER LOW CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER EASTERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE WITH SHOWERS AND VERY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ROTATING AROUND CENTER ACROSS EASTERN HALF OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND ALONG PLATEAU.
WE ARE NOT EXPECTING THE AMOUNT OF STORM COVERAGE LIKE THE PREV DAYS AS INFLUENCES FROM THE DEVELOPING MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF STORMS. TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE AND FOLLOWED A COOLER GROUP OF GUID. WARMER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST AREAS WITH A FOCUS ON COOLER IN THE NE. LOOK FOR MID/UPPER RIDGING TO BUILD OVER THE REGION AND HELP LIMIT PRECIP POTENTIAL.
A STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE IS EXPECTED TO DIVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT AND THEN IT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY LOCATED FROM SOUTHEAST WYOMING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE ON UP INTO EXTREME NORTHWEST MINNESOTA. THIS COLD FRONT.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. UPPER DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL TRAVERSE OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.
358 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015 CLOSED MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW OPENS INTO TROUGH TONIGHT OR MONDAY AS IT PASSES OVER.
329 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015 POTENT CLOSED UPPER LOW IS CURRENTLY CHURNING ITS WAY SLOWLY NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. UNFORTUNATELY IMPACTS FROM THE CURRENT TROUGH AND YET ANOTHER MOVING IN WILL KEEP PRECIP CHANCES IN FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK ON MONDAY.
352 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015 A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT. VISUAL LOOPS SHOW THE LOW CLOUDS HAVE ALMOST ALL BURNED OFF. THIS WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND A MUCH MILDER NIGHT FOR THE REGION WITH LOWS SOME 10 WARMER THAN EARLY TODAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN MOUNTAINS. THE UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO OPEN UP AND SWING INTO THE REGION MONDAY. INSTABILITY AND FORCING INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO THE SHEARING OUT UPPER TROUGH. I LEANED CLOSER TO SREF AND GEFS POPS WHICH HAVE THE HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF MOST AREAS GETTING WET DURING THE DAY.
THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT FROM NORTHEAST ND THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL TO SOUTHWEST SD. WEAK LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT IS LOCATED OVER WEST CENTRAL SD. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL CANADA. RANGING FROM 60S OVER PARTS OF NORTHEAST WY TO THE LOWER 90S OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD. CLOUDS AND SOMEWHAT FASTER MOVEMENT OF THE COLD FRONT ACROSS WESTERN SD TODAY HAS KEPT ATMOSPHERE MORE STABLE AND CAPPED OVER THIS AREA. SHOULD SEE THE HIGHEST RISK INTO THE EVENING HOURS. WHERE CLOUDS AND COOLER AIRMASS HAVE KEPT TEMPS DOWN. MONDAY WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY AND ON THE COOLER SIDE.
228 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015 A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT. VISUAL LOOPS SHOW THE LOW CLOUDS HAVE ALMOST ALL BURNED OFF. THIS WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND A MUCH MILDER NIGHT FOR THE REGION WITH LOWS SOME 10 WARMER THAN EARLY TODAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN MOUNTAINS. THE UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO OPEN UP AND SWING INTO THE REGION MONDAY. INSTABILITY AND FORCING INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO THE SHEARING OUT UPPER TROUGH. I LEANED CLOSER TO SREF AND GEFS POPS WHICH HAVE THE HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF MOST AREAS GETTING WET DURING THE DAY.
243 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015 CLOSED MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW OPENS INTO TROUGH TONIGHT OR MONDAY AS IT PASSES OVER.
306 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015 CLASSIC MONSOON PATTERN FEATURING HIGH PRESSURE OVER WEST TEXAS AND LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST HAS BROUGHT DEEP SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE TO THE FORECAST AREA. LIMITED INSOLATION DUE TO CLOUDS COMBINED WITH SUBSIDENCE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS SHOULD INHIBIT STRENGTH AND COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTH THIS EVENING. PASSAGE OF THE NORTHERN TROUGH WILL CAUSE FLOW TO SHIFT TO THE WEST.
549 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015 A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT. SATL AND REGIONAL RADAR LOOPS SHOW UPPER LOW OVR EASTERN KY EARLY THIS EVENING. TO NR 70F ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. THE UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO OPEN UP AND SWING INTO THE REGION MONDAY. INSTABILITY AND FORCING INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO THE SHEARING OUT UPPER TROUGH. I LEANED CLOSER TO SREF AND GEFS POPS WHICH HAVE THE HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF MOST AREAS GETTING WET DURING THE DAY.
RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 05/12Z UPPER-AIR PLOTS SHOW A RIDGE CENTERED OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO. A PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS SPINNING WELL WEST OF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST.
308 PM CDT Sun Jul 5 2015 (Tonight and Tomorrow) The forecast area will remain dry through tonight while under a weak positively tilted upper level ridge centered in northern Mexico. As the upper ridge begins to break down tomorrow an area precipitation west of our area will begin expanding eastward. The remainder of the forecast area will continue to by dry with afternoon highs in the lower to mid 90s after Monday morning lows in the lower 70s.
AS EXPECTED, TEMPERATURES ARE SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER WITH CURRENT TEMPS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S NEAR CUT BANK TO THE LOW 60S NEAR DILLON, WITH MUCH OF THE REGION IN THE LOW-MID 50S. ALL THIS WEATHER IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROF THAT IS MAKING EASTWARD PROGRESS THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TODAY. MIX OF VFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MT THIS AFTN AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROF CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE. AS TROF AXIS MOVES INTO SOUTHWEST MT LATER THIS AFTN THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR ISOLATED -TSRA VCNTY KBZN. SHOULD SEE GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT BACK TO VFR ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVE AS THE TROF SWINGS INTO EASTERN MT.
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO TREND COOLER THROUGH MUCH OF THE WORKWEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM APPROACHES THE CALIFORNIA COAST. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW REMAINS ABOUT 500 MILES TO THE WEST- SOUTHWEST OF SAN FRANCISCO THIS AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION TO THE LOW CLOUDS. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY APPROACH THE CALIFORNIA COAST DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. AS THE LOW APPROACHES THE COAST. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO COOL ALOFT AND TRANSLATE TO COOLER INLAND TEMPERATURES THROUGH MIDWEEK.
THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY WAS SHOWING A VIGOROUS LOW PRESSURE TROUGH SHEARING EAST ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER WHILE A SUB-TROPICAL DISTURBANCE WITH ACCOMPANYING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ROTATED NNE ACROSS SE IDAHO. LIKELY OWING TO THE PASSING DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE CANADIAN TROUGH.
420 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015 A BROAD UPPER RIDGE IS CENTERED OVER NEW MEXICO. ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH WAS LIFTING NEWD INTO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY BUT THE TROUGH AXIS TRAILED SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE NRN COAST OF THE GULF OF MX. THE HIGH INSTABILITY HAS LED TO SOME TALL STORMS AND ROBUST UPDRAFTS. SUBSIDENCE FROM THE UPPER RIDGE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO KEEP THE AREA WARM AND DRY FOR MONDAY. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT INTO THE SERN CONUS WHILE A BROAD TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT BASIN. SFC CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR OVER SW TX WHILE A COLD FRONT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE PLAINS.
402 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015 A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO MIDWEEK WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SLOW-MOVING AND WELL-DEFINED UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY IN EASTERN KY WILL GRADUALLY FILL AS IT TRUDGES NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THROUGH MONDAY.
604 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015 A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT. SATL AND REGIONAL RADAR LOOPS SHOW UPPER LOW OVR EASTERN KY EARLY THIS EVENING. TO NR 70F ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. THE UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO OPEN UP AND SWING INTO THE REGION MONDAY. INSTABILITY AND FORCING INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO THE SHEARING OUT UPPER TROUGH. I LEANED CLOSER TO SREF AND GEFS POPS WHICH HAVE THE HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF MOST AREAS GETTING WET DURING THE DAY.
SHOULD START A DRYING TREND OVERNIGHT AS A TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF MONTANA BUT HEIGHTS ARE SLOW TO REBOUND TONIGHT SO STILL THINK SOME CLOUDS AND LIGHT PRECIP WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA.
HOT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVER MOST OF THE REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK AS A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT REMAINS OVER THE AREA. WHERE COOLER MARINE AIR WILL HUG THE COASTLINE THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. AN UPPER LOW OFF CALIFORNIA MAY DRIFT FAR ENOUGH NORTH TUE/WED TO BRING THUNDERSTORMS UP THE CASCADE CREST TO LANE COUNTY BY MIDWEEK. RELIEF FROM THE HEAT MAY COME LATER THIS WEEK AS THE UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN ENOUGH TO ALLOW STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW.
225 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015 CLOSED MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW OPENS INTO TROUGH TONIGHT OR MONDAY AS IT PASSES OVER.
258 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015 SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE INCREASING AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST LATER MONDAY NIGHT/TUE. WE CAN EXPECT MAINLY RAINFREE CONDITIONS AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND A DEPARTING TROF.
WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES INLAND AS THE SEA BREEZE HELPS TO CLEAR OUT THE COAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN IN THE LOW TO MID 90S. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE OVER THE STATE FROM THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE WEEK. WEAK RIDGING WILL BE IN PLACE ALOFT THROUGH MID-WEEK.
THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE NEAR GARDEN CITY BY MID MORNING, THEN NEAR DODGE CITY AROUND NOON, AND FINALLY AT MEDICINE LODGE AROUND 7 PM. FOR MONDAY, THE COLD FRONT WILL SWITCH WINDS TO THE NORTH WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEST TO EAST. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 80S WEST TO AROUND 90 AT MEDICINE LODGE.
145 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015 Sub tropical ridge will remain over the area through the week. The center of the upper high was right over the area this morning and will drift down to Mexico and wander around there for the next couple of days. A closed low will move ashore the CA coast by the middle of the week but is not expected to displace the ridge. May see some stratus try to creep into the east again tomorrow morning and expecting a continuation of warmer lows.
CURRENT RADAR AND SATELLITE ANALYSIS INDICATE A DYING LINE OF CONVECTION PUSHING OUT OF THE FAR SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE CWA ALONG THE SURFACE COLD FRONT. WITH THE COLD FRONT NOW THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THINK THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE MINIMAL. THE CONVECTION STREAMING IN FROM MONTANA IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED 100KT JET SWINGING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES AND NORTH CENTRAL U. THIS CONVECTION IS WELL BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE. THE HIGHEST CHANCES WILL LINE UP WITH THE UPPER JET IN A NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST BAND. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TRACKS ACROSS THE NORTHERN FORECAST ZONES. IT WILL BE COOLER ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.
304 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015 WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TONIGHT.
Southwesterly flow will set up tomorrow ahead of a cold front which will begin to approach the region tomorrow night. Rain chances will be on the increase late Monday night as the cold front nears from the northwest.
/ISSUED 241 PM EST WED FEB 17 2016/ NORTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW FLATTENING AS WEAK UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING SHIFTS EAST INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD.
DRY HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL MAINTAIN CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WIND. /ISSUED 345 PM CST WED FEB 17 2016/ HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA IS BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS. OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS THIS HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND SWING SOUTH THEN SOUTHWEST TO SETTLE OVER NORTH FLORIDA.
643 PM EST WED FEB 17 2016 HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVERNIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES AND LOWS RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE TEENS TO LOWER 20S.
454 PM MST WED FEB 17 2016 UPPER LEVEL WINDS HAVE BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS TO THE EAST. AND START LOWERING AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE BEST ENERGY FROM THE MAIN TROUGH WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH AS IT TRACKS EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER STATES. BUT THE JET SWINGS AROUND THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH AND RIGHT OVER OUR FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY. ALSO SNOW LEVELS WILL BE ON THE HIGH SIDE. AND WITH THE COMPRESSIONAL WARMING LOOK FOR AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES POSSIBLY WARMER THAN TODAY'S. SNOW WILL BE LIMITED TO THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS NEAR THE DIVIDE.
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALOFT. ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO DROP NEAR OR AT THE FREEZING MARK IN MOST AREAS THERE. SUBFREEZING LOWS ARE EXPECTED AROUND DAYBREAK. CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 32 57 37 63 / 0 0 0 0 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 30 51 33 62 / 0 0 0 10 OAK RIDGE, TN 30 51 33 62 / 0 0 0 10 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 29 47 28 61 / 10 0 0 0.
WARM ADVECTION IN THE LOW-LEVELS AND SOME LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT CONVERGENCE INCREASE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD TRIGGER SOME PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION. ONLY HAVE SOME NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES AND SUB- FREEZING DEWPOINTS IN NORTHCENTRAL WI. THIS TROUGH IS CURRENTLY OFF THE WEST COAST WITH VIGOROUS OPEN CELL CONVECTION PER GOES IMAGERY.
937 PM EST WED FEB 17 2016 A DRY COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT. THEN HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
803 PM EST WED FEB 17 2016 A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL PA THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FOR THURSDAY WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF SUNSHINE. BUT COOLER TEMPERATURES AVERAGING SOME 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
442 PM MST WED FEB 17 2016 LATEST UPPER AIR DATA INDICATES THE RIDGE SLOWLY MOVING EAST TOWARD THE PLAINS. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE EXPANSE OF CLOUDS WITHIN THE RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE GREAT BASIN. SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE TRI- STATE AREA WERE LIGHT EXCEPT FOR SOME BREEZY WINDS OVER PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL COLORADO TO THE WEST OF THE HIGH CLOUDS. SO HAVE LOWS A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT. THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE STRENGTH OF THE WINDS AND HOW WARM TEMPERATURES WILL BE IS WHAT EFFECT THE HIGH CLOUDS.
833 PM EST WED FEB 17 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE REGION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE COOLER ONSHORE FLOW WILL HOLD MAX TEMPS TO AROUND 60 DEGREES AT THE BEACHES AND LOWER 60S ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR.
THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE IS MUCH DRIER TONIGHT COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO. /ISSUED 358 PM EST WED FEB 17 2016/ HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL TO EASTERN CONUS WILL SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE EASTERN CONUS TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. AT THE SAME TIME AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SHIFT FROM THE WESTERN GULF INTO THE EASTERN GULF. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN REMAIN ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH NO PRECIPITATION FORECAST TONIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
556 PM EST WED FEB 17 2016 A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING WILL BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO CENTRAL NEW YORK WITH A LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE FAIR BUT COLD WEATHER TOMORROW AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
512 PM EST WED FEB 17 2016 A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SNOW SHOWERS THIS EVENING BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. SCT-NMRS SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPD TO CONTINUE ERLY THIS EVE WITH A CROSSING COLD FRONT. SNOW SHOWER CHCS SHOULD CONTINUE IN THE RIDGES SE OF PIT WITH LIMITED TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT LATE THIS EVE. BLDG HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD END ALL SNOW AND RESULT IN AN EVENTUAL CLEARING TREND LATE TONIGHT. COOL HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE REGION THURSDAY WITH CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN THURSDAY NIGHT.
544 PM EST WED FEB 17 2016 A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL PA THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FOR THURSDAY WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF SUNSHINE. BUT COOLER TEMPERATURES AVERAGING SOME 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
Fast, progressive flow pattern in place aloft with upper ridge building east into the Rockies today with a strong trough approaching the west coast. This will bring much warmer air into the area, with increasing mixing allowing for very strong winds to reach the surface. Will go ahead with a Wind Advisory for much of east central Kansas where the highest confidence in the stronger winds exists.
AS WE MOVE INTO THURSDAY AND THE RIDGE SHIFTS SLIGHTLY WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE LIGHT OVERALL 4-8 KTS FROM THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST. 08 HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE AREA THRU THE END OF THE WEEK.
WILL KEEP FREEZING FOG IN FORECAST FOR NORTH HALF OF THE MID STATE. THINK BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES ARE MOST LIKELY TO HAVE FREEZING FOG IN THE OVERNIGHT.
607 PM EST WED FEB 17 2016 A COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT SOUTH OF THE REGION THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
AND LINGER THROUGH MIDDAY THURSDAY BEFORE FLAT UPPER RIDGING BUILDS E OVER THE REGION. SFC RIDGING OVER THE RESULTING IN SE WINDS 3-7KTS TONIGHT. ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHEAST TEXAS WHERE RH MINS WILL BE THE LOWEST AND WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST. THE WEEKEND STILL LOOKS NICE AND WARM WITH LOTS OF CIRRUS UNDER THE EASTWARD MIGRATING RIDGE. AFTER THAT THE PENDULUM SWINGS BACK COOLER FOR US WITH FRESH CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH MIDWEEK.
742 PM EST WED FEB 17 2016 A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING WILL BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO CENTRAL NEW YORK WITH A LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE FAIR BUT COLD WEATHER TOMORROW AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
AT 8 PM MST COLD FRONT WAS ALONG THE WA AND OR CASCADES AND MOVING EAST. ENERGETIC PACIFIC UPPER TROUGH AND MORE SHOWERS WILL MOVE INLAND TO THE CASCADES 18Z THURSDAY THEN EWD INTO IDAHO LATE THURSDAY MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN U. TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN DROP INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S OVER MUCH OF THE REGION TONIGHT WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 60S ALONG THE VOLUSIA COAST TO THE LOWER 70S ELSEWHERE. LIGHT N/NW WINDS THIS EVE WILL INCREASE NEAR 15 KNOTS THU MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS FROM THE NORTH.