Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
By Friday, this high will move east as the pressure gradient begins to tighten. Looking further out, still looking like good chances for showers and thunderstorms Friday afternoon and through the overnight hours as low pressure tracks east across the Dakotas.
254 AM CDT Thu Aug 8 2019 High pressure building in will clear the area of cloud as the morning progresses.
1234 AM EDT Thu Aug 8 2019 Cold front will finish crossing the U. High pressure will continue to build into the Upper Lakes through Thursday. winds will be pretty gusty especially over the warmer nearshore water areas.
This wave will help drive a cold front through the CWA tonight. Temperatures at 1 pm, were in the low to mid 80s. Cold front will track southeast through the CWA between 00-09z this evening. slightly cooler and more comfortable conditions will be the norm, as cold front continues to push south into MO and southern IL and high pressure builds in from the northwest. Highs will reach the low to mid 80s, with lower dewpoints making for another beautiful summer day. Dry and quiet weather will continue Thursday night through Friday night, as high pressure moves over the region.
Of course, as is always the case in summer on the high plains, a few locations will see a lot of rain and a few may see only a little, with everyone else somewhere in between. Given the high low level moisture content, the storms will probably hold together and make it much of southwestern Kansas Thursday night. But if convection fails to materialize, then temperatures would be warmer and even hot.
304 AM CDT Thu Aug 8 2019 303 AM CDT With the last of the showers and thunderstorms moving out of the area early this morning, it is looking like the rest of the day will be quiet for a majority of the area following a cold frontal passage this morning. Otherwise, expect mostly sunny to partly cloudy conditions today with highs in the low to mid 80s north and the mid to upper 80s south. This should result in pleasant weather on Friday, with highs in the lower 80s with low humidity.
High pressure was located over the central Gulf of Mexico with a weak area of low pressure over southern KS. An upper level high pressure system was located over Texas and this feature will remain the dominant weather feature for the region.
Otherwise, conditions are forecast to remain mostly dry Thursday ahead of an approaching cold front that is currently draped across portions of the Midwest. Updated at 300 AM EDT Thu Aug 8 2019 A cold front will make its way through the region on Friday, accompanied by scattered thunderstorms. High pressure will build in for the weekend, with dry and very warm conditions.
239 AM EDT Thu Aug 8 2019 Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb trough on both coasts, a ridge over the Rockies and a closed low over central Canada with a trough in the upper Great Lakes. This last trough remains over the area today and moves to New England tonight. This period starts off with high pressure holding over the Northern Plains as a low pressure system and trough from yesterday's convection pushes east through Quebec. With SW CONUS ridging and high pressure continuing, Upper Michigan will continue to be cut off from significant Gulf of Mexico moisture. On Friday, a weak ridge of high pressure will be centered across the Iowa/Minnesota border. This high will continue to slide east through the day on Friday, leaving NW flow and generally clear skies across Upper Michigan.
306 AM CDT Thu Aug 8 2019 (Today and Tonight) Another hot and dry day is expected across West Central Texas today as upper level ridging dominates the weather pattern.
These trends only continue this morning as it looks like a cold front will sink south of the area late Friday evening. Behind the front, high pressure will build in at the surface as the upper ridge strengthen and slightly amplify over the southern U.
Latest surface analysis is showing that a stationary front has pushed well south of the CWA into Oklahoma and Arkansas and a cold front was located over the upper Midwest. Precipitation chances will return late tonight as another MCS propagates into western Missouri and eastern Kansas from the High Plains. At the same time a weak cold front will move southeast through Missouri and intersect the MCS in western Missouri. This will help push out any remnants of precipitation from Thursday's cold front. While we remain in the upper level ridge there is a chance for disturbances to filter into the area and generate the lift necessary to initiate isolated convection through the end of the period.
944 AM CDT Thu Aug 8 2019 High pressure centered to the west of Wisconsin will bring quiet weather today. Otherwise, high pressure will bring light winds and low waves to Lake Michigan late this week and into the weekend.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 92 73 89 73 / 20 10 50 40 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 90 69 88 71 / 10 10 50 50 Oak Ridge, TN 90 70 88 70 / 10 10 50 40 Tri Cities Airport, TN 86 64 85 66 / 10 10 50 40.
630 AM EDT Thu Aug 8 2019 Thunderstorms will be rather isolated and temperatures warmer than normal through the remainder of the week. Highs both days should reach the low to mid 90s with lows tonight in the low to mid 70s.
500 AM CDT Thu Aug 8 2019 High pressure building in will clear the area of cloud as the morning progresses.
Of course, as is always the case in summer on the high plains, a few locations will see a lot of rain and a few may see only a little, with everyone else somewhere in between. Given the high low level moisture content, the storms will probably hold together and make it much of southwestern Kansas Thursday night. But if convection fails to materialize, then temperatures would be warmer and even hot. A cluster of t-storms is expected to develop this evening on the higher terrain to the west due to upslope flow.
The upper trough and weak surface boundary will move slowly southeast across the area into the afternoon. Mostly clear overnight with temperatures in the low to mid 70s. Moisture will be returning to the area through the day as a short wave trough moves through the Lower mS Valley and toward the forecast area. Temperatures Friday will be in the mid 90s for highs with overnight lows in the lower to mid 70s.
9" range, there is some temporary ridging/subsidence aloft in the mid/upper levels of the atmosphere which will keep storm chances slightly below normal with coverage generally 20-40% this afternoon with scattered storms developing along the Gulf Coast sea breeze and tracking E-SE around 10 mph into inland portions of NE FL early this afternoon then spreading across the rest of NE FL during the mid to afternoon hours reaching the pinned East Sea Breeze Front at the NE FL beaches where a few storms could become strong with gusty winds and some low level rotation could occur as boundaries collide and push into the nearshore waters. With trof north of the waters and High Pressure ridge to the south expect mainly offshore South to Southwest flow at 10-15 knots with seas 2 to 4 feet.
It appears that some influence of that trough will reach portions of northeast Utah while elsewhere terrain-driven convection is expected. For the most part later this afternoon and evening thunderstorms will be scattered in the mountains with less coverage in the lower valleys.
Highs today will be below normal around 80 to the lower 80s with clouds through much of the morning.
Elsewhere, water vapor imagery shows a weak upper level trough moving southeast into the Gulf states and extreme north central Gulf of Mexico. This is being driven by a large upper level ridge that is exiting the Southwest U. Given this low level wind profile, conditions are marginally favorable for a cloud line to develop later today. Meanwhile, upper level ridge will continue to move east and build across the entire Gulf of Mexico.
High temperatures in the low to mid 80s. Low temperatures in the low to mid 60s. Afternoon temperatures look to peak in the low to upper 80s.
PoPs will gradually increase from west to east, with the highest PoPs in the south. Probability of rainfall is expected to drop off rapidly from the north Fri afternoon and evening as slightly drier/cooler air begins to filter into our region. An upper level high will be centered over the south central U. The amplified pattern will break down as energy from an upper trof over the Pacific NW translates east across the northern U.
Have maintained slight/chance PoPs for this afternoon as weak cold front is still expected to drop south into the area. These trends only continue this morning as it looks like a cold front will sink south of the area late Friday evening. Behind the front, high pressure will build in at the surface as the upper ridge strengthen and slightly amplify over the southern U.
Today, a ridge continues to affect the region. monsoon, have seeded the ridge with a lot of moisture. Decreasing cloud cover this morning will allow temperatures to heat up into the low 100s in central Idaho, and upper 80s to mid 90s in western Montana today. The hot temperatures and ample mid and upper level moisture in the ridge will fuel some thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Friday and Friday night, a deep upper level low will dig into the Oregon and northern California coast on its way to the northern Rockies.
Drier mid-level air will act against convection, but a trough to our northwest will provide some shear and weak dynamics. By Friday and into the weekend, a deep trough takes shape over the Great Basin, which will eventually dry the southwest out. Before that happens though, this trough looks to be in a good position to induce a surge over the weekend.
922 AM EDT Thu Aug 8 2019 The low level ridge was located near the Keys this morning with low level W/WSW flow north of the ridge axis. Highs should reach the lower to mid 90s with afternoon heat indices from 100 to 105 degrees.
/issued 329 AM CDT Thu Aug 8 2019/ (Today and Tonight) Another hot and dry day is expected across West Central Texas today as upper level ridging dominates the weather pattern.
349 AM MDT Thu Aug 8 2019 H5 ridge remains stretched from the Texas Panhandle NWWD to northern Idaho. 75 and minimal capping, will have little trouble sparking showers and thunderstorms along the higher elevations by around noontime. While this in itself would not lead to much in the way of precip, a vort max is coming around the ridge across UT during the day.
646 AM EDT Thu Aug 8 2019 A cold front will move across the area today. There is a small chance for thunderstorms to develop again along the cold front this afternoon but that will primarily be south of U.
1014 AM EDT Thu Aug 8 2019 Aviation section updated A cold front and a couple of upper disturbances will bring rain chances to all or parts of central Indiana today and Friday.
620 AM EDT Thu Aug 8 2019 Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb trough on both coasts, a ridge over the Rockies and a closed low over central Canada with a trough in the upper Great Lakes. This last trough remains over the area today and moves to New England tonight. This period starts off with high pressure holding over the Northern Plains as a low pressure system and trough from yesterday's convection pushes east through Quebec. With SW CONUS ridging and high pressure continuing, Upper Michigan will continue to be cut off from significant Gulf of Mexico moisture. On Friday, a weak ridge of high pressure will be centered across the Iowa/Minnesota border. This high will continue to slide east through the day on Friday, leaving NW flow and generally clear skies across Upper Michigan.
1125 AM MDT Thu Aug 8 2019 H5 ridge remains stretched from the Texas Panhandle NWWD to northern Idaho. 75 and minimal capping, will have little trouble sparking showers and thunderstorms along the higher elevations by around noontime. While this in itself would not lead to much in the way of precip, a vort max is coming around the ridge across UT during the day.
242 PM CDT Thu Aug 8 2019 A mid to upper-level high will remain anchored over the southern Plains through the weekend while an attendant ridge axis pivots from the central Rockies and Pacific Northwest into the northern and central Plains. In the low levels, early afternoon mesoanalysis places a weak surface boundary from near the IA-MO border westward through southeast NE into central NE. Highs on Friday could be a bit warmer than today with readings in the lower to mid 80s.
On Friday, a weak cold front will drop south toward the region. Temperatures will remain on the cooler side with clouds and rain hanging around as highs will be in the mid to upper 80s. Temperatures will remain close to normal with lows in the low to mid 70s.
Residual cyclonic flow and adequate boundary layer moisture trailed the morning cold front which combined with daytime heating for early afternoon development initially over higher terrain areas of northern Lower. The notable aspect of conditions tonight is cooler and less humid air gaining traction across the central Great Lakes. Inbound high pressure dominates conditions to start the weekend ensuring dry conditions with warm temperatures and low humidity. Dry weather is further ensured by confluent flow aloft on the downstream side of the long wave ridge progressing slowly through the central U.
Highs in the mid 70s to the lower 80s still look good. Will then see a low pressure system and associated frontal boundary approach, with showers and thunderstorms developing across the western part of the CWA Friday afternoon. High temperatures today will range from the mid 70s east to the lower 80s west, with lows tonight ranging from the mid 50s east to the mid 60s west. Highs on Friday will be in the lower to mid 80s.
A strong upper level low will persist north of the Great lakes while its axis extends just east of the area. Meanwhile, ridging will build over the Plains states, leaving the area in a general northwest flow aloft. At the surface, high pressure will ridge into the area from the north. Mild nighttime temperatures are expected as well, with lows in the lower to mid 70s.
251 PM MDT Thu Aug 8 2019 Pattern continues to be on track with the upper level ridge beginning to break down and upper trough/low making its move into the Pacific Northwest.
A short wave slowly riding over a ridge centered over the Great Plains will move across the Dakotas Friday afternoon and may spark some shower activity in the Brainerd Lakes area Friday night, so have some PoPs there though left out the shot for tstorms since instability is lacking.
High pressure will continue to push into the area tonight into Friday. High pressure centered to the west of Wisconsin will bring quiet weather today. Otherwise, high pressure will bring light winds and low waves to Lake Michigan late this week and into the weekend.
1002 AM CDT Thu Aug 8 2019 Very quiet with high pressure and clear skies.
Any diurnal shower activity toward Lake Huron should dissipate quickly late this afternoon as cooler and drier air continues to slowly filter into northern Michigan. Upper level troughing will hold over the NE US thru the weekend.
Still expect to see widely scattered thunderstorms develop across most of the forecast area this afternoon as temperatures climb into the low to mid 90s.
Temperatures were mainly in the lower and middle 70s. High temps will be just slightly warmer than today, mainly in the mid 70s to around 80.
1253 PM EDT Thu Aug 8 2019 Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb trough on both coasts, a ridge over the Rockies and a closed low over central Canada with a trough in the upper Great Lakes. This last trough remains over the area today and moves to New England tonight. This period starts off with high pressure holding over the Northern Plains as a low pressure system and trough from yesterday's convection pushes east through Quebec. With SW CONUS ridging and high pressure continuing, Upper Michigan will continue to be cut off from significant Gulf of Mexico moisture. On Friday, a weak ridge of high pressure will be centered across the Iowa/Minnesota border. This high will continue to slide east through the day on Friday, leaving NW flow and generally clear skies across Upper Michigan.
This was a result of a combination of the rainfall from yesterday and cooler air aloft.
342 PM CDT Thu Aug 8 2019 Beautiful day out there today as Canadian high pressure descends into the northern Plains and Upper Midwest. The ridge axis will slide east across MN tonight, with winds expected to decouple across much of the area after midnight. The dry air will allow temps to drop into the low to mid 50s, with even some 40s possible across central MN and northwest WI. The ridge axis will shift to the MN/WI border by Friday afternoon and a southerly flow will kick in to the west with low level moisture modestly increasing. A short wave will round the mid level ridge to the northern Plains Friday afternoon and form a complex of thunderstorms.
Have lowered high temperatures across the rain cooled areas by at least one category as outflow boundaries have continually reinforced the cooler airmass.
303 PM CDT Thu Aug 8 2019 After a rain-free night over most of the forecast area, the chances for isolated (north) to scattered (south) thunderstorms will be with us for the day Friday as a weak cold front eases south into the region.
High pressure still dominates the area and will continue to do so for at least the next several days.
347 PM CDT Thu Aug 8 2019 Expansive area of clouds and rain has keep much of the area north of Interstate 40 much cooler, with temps holding in the mid 70s to lower 80s.
High pressure is centered near the Panhandle of Texas. An easterly wave/inverted trough is circulating around the edge of the high near Big Bend country. Drier mid-level air will act against convection, but a trough to our northwest will provide some shear and weak dynamics. By Friday and into the weekend, a deep trough takes shape over the Great Basin, which will eventually dry the southwest out. Before that happens though, this trough looks to be in a good position to induce a surge over the weekend.
Moisture will be returning to the area through the day as a short wave trough moves through the Lower mS Valley and toward the forecast area. Temperatures Friday will be in the mid 90s for highs with overnight lows in the lower to mid 70s.
Rain showers will move into west-central Montana this evening and overnight, as the slow moving trough moves further north into eastern Washington.
325 PM CDT Thu Aug 8 2019 A cold front moving through the state today will bring scattered showers and thunderstorms through the afternoon and evening to Central Illinois. Storms will clear from north to south, and slightly cooler temperatures are expected for Friday. A very slow moving cold front is draped across the midsection of the state this afternoon. Slightly lower dewpoints and temps in the low to mid 80s range will result in heat indexes close to ambient temp for much of Central Illinois, with a light northerly wind.
248 PM CDT Thu Aug 8 2019 18Z surface data has the cold front from northwest Ohio back across northern Missouri and into southern Nebraska. Tonight quiet and dry conditions are expected as high pressure builds into the Midwest.
1235 PM CDT Thu Aug 8 2019 High pressure building in will clear the area of cloud as the morning progresses.
As expected, precipitation is at a premium this afternoon with just a few isolated showers managing to break through the building upper ridge across the northwestern gulf.
257 PM EDT Thu Aug 8 2019 Updated at 255 PM EDT Thu Aug 8 2019 The rest of the afternoon and evening hours should be mainly dry as a weak cold front stalls to our north. Have delay precip chances until late evening into the overnight hours for much of the area with area wide scattered showers/storms not likely until Fri afternoon when the cold front makes it into central KY.
355 PM EDT Thu Aug 8 2019 A cold front will move through the region tonight into Friday. High pressure will then move into the region allowing for dry conditions for the weekend.
342 PM EDT Thu Aug 8 2019 A cold front will cross the state today producing strong to severe thunderstorms with locally heavy rain. Cooler and drier air is expected Friday into the weekend under high pressure.
Models indicate that a slight eastward progression of the upper high will occur over the next several days from central TX toward the Ark-La-Tex region as a trough moves on shore over the Pacific NW. This will in turn help lower 500 mb hts over western portions of the CWA and shift the thermal ridge further east.
253 PM EDT Thu Aug 8 2019 Mid level ridging initially over the southern high plains spills out across the Gulf of Mexico through Fri with a trough over the eastern U. however the building mid level ridging will offset the deep moisture somewhat with POPs isolated to scattered. Sat-Thu: The mid level ridge center slowly traverses eastward over the Gulf coastal states. The ridge axis of Atlantic high pressure extends into the Gulf and meanders through southern FL. Temperatures will be in the normal range for the highs while the lows will be a couple of degrees or so above. Broad Atlantic high pressure stretches west across the Gulf of Mexico through midweek.
131 PM EDT Thu Aug 8 2019 A cold front will move across the area today. There is a small chance for thunderstorms to develop again along the cold front this afternoon but that will primarily be south of U.
The models all show a short wave trough from the west coming into and over the region Friday afternoon and night. The lift and cooling aloft from this short wave trough along with most all of the other ingredients for thunderstorms and possible severe weather are expected Friday afternoon and night. Return flow moisture is expected on Friday and Friday night across the cwa along with an increasing llj to 35 to 45 knots, increasing mucapes, strengthening deep layer shear to 40 to 50 knots or higher, decent mid level lapses rates, along with a good warm front setting up.
300 PM MDT Thu Aug 8 2019 Upper ridging continue across the southwest to south central CONUS, with northwest flow persisting across the northern Great plains. Several upper waves are rounding the axis of the ridge, pushing into central Wyoming at this time. Cooler air will push in from behind the low tomorrow afternoon, with the strongest convection initiating across northwest SD, the northern Black Hills, and into central SD. and even stronger shear across northwest SD as boundary layer winds north of the low develop a southeasterly component.
100 PM EDT Thu Aug 8 2019 West-northwest winds near 15 knots with gusts around 20 knots this afternoon have helped dry out the low levels, leading to SCT-BKN VFR clouds. High pressure takes hold of the region Friday into the weekend bringing a pleasant stretch of weather as cool Canadian air funnels into the Michigan under persistent northwest flow on the east side of the central plains ridge.
336 PM EDT Thu Aug 8 2019 Another round of thunderstorms, some severe, are expected this afternoon ahead of a cold front. Drier and cooler weather is indicated for the weekend. The primary thing limiting severe weather so far has been warmer air at mid levels serving as a cap on thunderstorms. The actual cold front will cross the region overnight, dropping south of the Mason-Dixon line by Friday morning. Temperatures will be slightly cooler behind the front, with most locations within a couple degrees of 80. High pressure will dominant the eastern Great Lakes for the weekend, dropping daily temperatures to just below seasonal averages. Low pressure will move across the region, with models showing some timing differences on when this will occur.
A drier NW flow aloft continues this evening and overnight as weak high pressure gives the region a brief dry period.