Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
SHORT TERM (Today through Friday): Before the daytime heating really gets going this morning, there is a threat for a brief shower or two for the lower valley this morning, as a few streamer showers noted on radar try to move ashore near KBRO. The H5 ridge remains dominant across the south.
515 PM CST Tue Dec 27 2016 At 3 PM, subsidence in the wake of a departing short wave trough has resulted in clearing across southeast Minnesota and northeast Iowa. Elsewhere the temperatures were in the lower and mid 20s. For tonight, skies will gradually clear across western Wisconsin this evening in the wake of the short wave trough which is moving through the region. In addition to the clouds, we will see moderate to strong warm air advection take place in the lowest 4 km of the column.
621 PM CST Tue Dec 27 2016 Low pressure and an associated warm front is moving through central North Dakota this evening. Temperatures will warm through the night with the warm front. Following this a weak cold front will move through late tonight bringing a switch to west to northwest winds that increase to 20 to 30 mph. Mid and high level clouds were advancing into the area ahead of a weak warm front and weak warm air advection.
550 PM CST Tue Dec 27 2016 Quiet and pleasant conditions continue this afternoon across the area, with afternoon temperatures in the low 50s under sunny skies. There will be a very low end chance for a bit of light rain or sprinkles across far southern Missouri tomorrow along with the low clouds; however, the bulk of precipitation chances will remain south and east of the forecast area. Temperatures will warm nicely on Wednesday despite the cloud cover, with highs in the low to mid 50s for most.
This boundary should not do much overnight but will return north quickly after sunrise on Wed as a warm front. Would not be surprised to see these conditions prevail beyond 14z on Wed given that the progs are trying to suggest the potential of advection fog after sunrise on Wed in the wake of the returning warm front spreading northward during the morning hours Wed.
So despite clear skies, the light southwest to south winds will keep temperatures a few degrees warmer than last night, with lows in the upper 20s to mid 30s.
903 PM EST Tue Dec 27 2016 High pressure will move across Pennsylvania Wednesday with cooler temperatures.
A weak embedded wave was noted over Montana this afternoon, and models show this wave deepening into a mid-level trough as it progresses eastward across the Northern Plains tonight into Wednesday.
Aforementioned wave to pass to our north tomorrow with associated cold front expected to begin passing across the Lwr Missouri Vly through the afternoon. The combination of sunshine along with south winds and modest thermal ridging in advance of this feature should allow for a quick warmup with highs likely climbing into the upper 40s to lower 50s.
Cold front bisecting the area at 00z, with TCL, BHM, EET, ANB and ASN on the north side, and MGM and TOI on the south side. A weak cold front will sink southward through the area today.
Mid and high level clouds are increasing from the west in advance of the approaching warm front which will move across the region overnight. Lows are a bit tricky tonight, as many areas will probably see their lows reached this evening, before temps remain steady or slowly rise through the night as the warm front passes and clouds thicken/increase.
Low pressure and an associated warm front is moving through central North Dakota this evening. Temperatures will warm through the night with the warm front. Following this a weak cold front will move through late tonight bringing a switch to west to northwest winds that increase to 20 to 30 mph. Mid and high level clouds were advancing into the area ahead of a weak warm front and weak warm air advection.
Could still see a few flurries or very light freezing drizzle this evening as upper energy works across, but should have little impact at terminals. Better chance for MVFR cigs to lift will be with the arrival of a warm front tomorrow between 16- 18Z. Upper level trough currently entering the Great Lakes will swing through this evening with ridging then taking over through the overnight.
The back edge of the cloud shield associated with the piedmont cold front is just exiting Southeast Tennessee early this evening leaving clear skies and vfr conditions in place for several hours. Visibility will likely drop to at least mvfr category but could even descend to ifr with the most likely spot to see the lower flight conditions at TRI.
807 PM EST Tue Dec 27 2016 Dry weather and seasonal temperature can be expected until the approach of a Wednesday night cold front. With the passage of the low level boundary associated with the H5 wave, lapse rates look to steepen from the surface up to the -10C isotherm with a very short window of saturation roughly occurring just behind the wind shift in the boundary layer.
Arctic air mass currently over Alberta is poised to make a swd plunge into the lower 48 late tonight.
there is a short window of opportunity for fog to form under the ridge and clear skies mainly over northern IL where there was some snow melt earlier today, and where dewpoints are in the upper teens.
524 PM EST Tue Dec 27 2016 Dry weather and seasonal temperature can be expected until the approach of a Wednesday night cold front. With the passage of the low level boundary associated with the H5 wave, lapse rates look to steepen from the surface up to the -10C isotherm with a very short window of saturation roughly occurring in the boundary layer concurrently.
Weak short waves on the nose of the strong Pacific NW jet segment will eventually increase mid clouds north tonight and then push a trough through tomorrow.
944 PM EST Tue Dec 27 2016 High pressure moving through Kentucky to West Virginia will keep dry weather over the region tonight through Wednesday. A wave of low pressure traveling along a cold front will bring rain mainly to southern locations Wednesday night.
At the surface, a ridge axis moving through will turn winds southerly tonight and low level southwesterly flow will allow temperatures to rise overnight, so our overnight low will likely occur before midnight. In addition, mid level cloudiness will quickly spill into the area tonight ahead of a trough dropping southeast through Canada. That trough is the main focus of the remainder of the short term forecast period. The trough axis and frontal boundary will move through the area mainly during the day tomorrow so winds will turn westerly and increase in the afternoon. The first batch comes tonight as the low level warm air advection and a ripple in the main upper trough move through northern MN.
A trough axis will pass to our north tomorrow resulting in a slight veering of the mid level flow across West Texas. However, thanks to the aforementioned trough, a cold front should make it into the NERN counties around mid-day and slowly sag southward. Weak cold front will slide southward across the forecast area Wed evening, clearing the area by midnight.
High pressure is expected across the area through Wednesday.
Overnight lows will range from the lower 50s north of I-20 to the upper 50s along the I-10 corridor.
Expect the leading edge of an associated cold front to shift south across south central Nebraska during the overnight hours. While there will be slightly cooler air advecting in across the region through the daytime hours tomorrow. the noticeably cooler portion of the airmass will not reach the local area until after the period of peak heating. if not a degree or two warmer.
/issued 320 PM CST Tue Dec 27 2016/ Despite the cooler, post-frontal airmass across the Mid-South, temperatures remain a good 5+ degrees above climo for late December. This will lift the aforementioned stalled surface boundary back north as a warm front. An expansive trough will move east across the Midwest Wednesday evening. This will increase forcing for ascent across the region and will drive a cold front into the area from the northwest.
552 PM CST Tue Dec 27 2016 Relatively quiet forecast in the near term with high pressure over the central portion of the country shifting east. Low pressure well to the north will also shift east with increasing gradient ahead of the cold front. Will result in increasing flow aloft, and expect to see winds increase along exposed areas such as the Buffalo Ridge throughout the night. Cold front will shift through the area tonight into Wednesday morning.
This is a fast moving storm which will limit the snow accumulations but it will come with some strong ridgetop winds on our side of the hills and some downslope potential to the east. Guidance in the Gunnison Valley is much warmer and not totally buying off on it so went well below and maybe not enough.
Quiet afternoon across the mid state today behind the cold front that brought some showers and thunderstorms overnight. CAA continues behind the front, and combined with clear skies/light winds, temperatures should drop into the low 30s for most of the mid state. The next upper trough over the Midwest will bring additional chances of showers and thunderstorms with the southerly flow. Best chances for showers across the mid state looks to be during that timeframe as well with peak lift ahead of the next cold front.
1051 PM EST Tue Dec 27 2016 Marine Tranquil weather will continue tonight through Wednesday night as a weak high pressure ridge builds in.
Still expect strong winds over the higher ridges, but elsewhere, winds should start to decrease later this evening. with gusts to 70 in the higher passes. The lower elevations will stay dry. Temperatures on the plains will be a bit cooler on Wednesday as the lee trough will be gone and some cool advection will develop.
Light southerly winds will gradually veer and increase to 10-15 knots behind a cold front that will pass through midday/early afternoon tomorrow. A cold front will move across the area Wednesday. The cold front will bring cooler air but not artic air so temperatures will remain near or above normal for most locations through the week.
IFR and LIFR conditions are then expected 08-14Z across most sites as the low-level winds switch more to the south and bring in higher moisture. The weak cold front has slowed its southward progression along the I-10 corridor and will eventually wash out by tomorrow morning. The low clouds and fog will persist through midday, then a southwest flow and some breaks in the clouds should allow temperatures Wednesday afternoon to warm into the upper 70s to around 80.
The front sits just to our south now but will try to work its way back north as a warm front after midnight. /10/ Prior discussion below: Through Wednesday: The cold front will stall near the southern border of the forecast area overnight, with low level flow gradually veering around to the east overnight then more southerly by tomorrow morning. The front will lift back northward early Wednesday as a warm front, with additional low stratus spreading northward early in the day.
435 PM CST Tue Dec 27 2016 High pressure was passing through the Northland this afternoon and had cleared skies across the area. With the ridge axis passing through and light winds expected this evening, temperatures will plummet early with most locales marking their overnight lows between 9 pm and midnight. Up to 2 inches of snow are expected from this wave, with the highest totals north of the Iron range and east into northeast Minnesota.
High pressure will gradually move out of the area over the next few days. A weak cold front will move through Wednesday. Forcing for ascent as well as dry flow in the lower and mid levels of the atmosphere will preclude any.
went with slower reductions in CIGS and VSBY owing to slightly drier air in the lower levels therefore taking more time to saturate. Extended marine dense fog advisory into Wed morning as widespread sea fog expected with high dew point air spreading over cooler shelf waters.
637 PM EST Tue Dec 27 2016 Other than a few high clouds, mostly clear skies will remain in the offing as high pressure moves overhead. A deepening, positively tilted and fast moving trough takes aim at the area Wednesday night.
Ceilings and visibility should then lower with the lowest visibility from KLBX to KCXO developing between 04Z and 10Z. Then expecting basically a repeat of today where the low visibility lifted by mid morning. and highs AOA 80 many other locations excluding right at the coast where its a bit cooler and foggier. On Wednesday front lifts north as a warm front with much of the area again seen warm humid conditions.
648 PM CST Tue Dec 27 2016 Updated for 00Z aviation discussion 00Z TAF discussion: A mix of VFR/MVFR conditions prevail across TAF sites this evening as a cold front moves across the area. /15/ Through Wednesday: The cold front will stall near the southern border of the forecast area overnight, with low level flow gradually veering around to the east overnight then more southerly by tomorrow morning. The front will lift back northward early Wednesday as a warm front, with additional low stratus spreading northward early in the day.
Temps will only rise 3 to 4 deg during the day tomorrow and should max out in the upper 20s outside of the valley and just below freezing within the valley.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 38 60 47 55 / 10 10 80 20 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 34 57 42 51 / 10 10 80 30 Oak Ridge, TN 34 57 42 52 / 10 10 80 20 Tri Cities Airport, TN 31 54 38 49 / 10 10 80 40.
Temperatures are running a few degrees warmer today than they were 24 hours ago. Overnight temperatures will continue to be a few degrees below normal the next few nights, but we don't expect hard freeze conditions under building high pressure and a warming airmass.
High temps Wed will rebound a bit into the lower to mid 60s.
Temperatures ranged from around 10 above across the far north to the lower 20s across northeast and east-central Wisconsin. The scattered flurries should come to an end and most of the low clouds should dissipate late this afternoon or early this evening.
However, areas not under these clouds are colder with Baker City, Oregon in the single digits and the Lower Treasure Valley in the teens. The low temperature forecast has been updated to reflect these trends.
Overnight lows will be quite mild at around 10 degrees above normal in the low to mid 60s.
Surface winds were light areawide, with a high pressure axis parked along the MS River. Where 9 pm dewpoints were above freezing, but overnight lows are forecast to be subfreezing, have introduced a mention of patchy freezing fog toward morning - mainly over portions of west TN east and north of Memphis, and far northeast AR. /issued 320 PM CST Tue Dec 27 2016/ Despite the cooler, post-frontal airmass across the Mid-South, temperatures remain a good 5+ degrees above climo for late December. This will lift the aforementioned stalled surface boundary back north as a warm front. An expansive trough will move east across the Midwest Wednesday evening. This will increase forcing for ascent across the region and will drive a cold front into the area from the northwest.
High pressure was passing through the Northland this afternoon and had cleared skies across the area. With the ridge axis passing through and light winds expected this evening, temperatures will plummet early with most locales marking their overnight lows between 9 pm and midnight. Up to 2 inches of snow are expected from this wave, with the highest totals north of the Iron range and east into northeast Minnesota.
with gusts to 70 in the higher passes. The lower elevations will stay dry. Temperatures on the plains will be a bit cooler on Wednesday as the lee trough will be gone and some cool advection will develop.
The remainder of the short term forecast period looks to be dry with a slow cooling trend with a broad upper ridge building over the region. VFR conditions are generally expected at all TAF sites overnight and on Wednesday as precipitation gradually decreases overnight and a broad high pressure ridge builds over the region on Wednesday.
will keep locales in the lower to mid 20s for overnight lows. This is going to allow a cold front to slide into the CWA tomorrow afternoon. There is a strong trough in the eastern CONUS and a ridge in the western CONUS.
Low's tonight in the low to mid 30's with highs on Wednesday in the 50's. From 28/21Z onward, a weak sfc front and upper level trough will approach the mid state region from the west, bringing with it increased cloudiness across western portions of the mid state region, and the possibility of shwrs at least in the vicinity of CKV.
705 PM EST Tue Dec 27 2016 High pressure moving through Kentucky to West Virginia will keep dry weather over the region tonight through Wednesday. A wave of low pressure traveling along a cold front will bring rain mainly to southern locations Wednesday night.
By 00Z, the cold front had begun to stall across the Apalachians and lower Mississippi valley, just northwest of our area.
Clear skies prevailing and little change is anticipated through tonight, as an area of high pressure pushes east across the lower Ohio Valley.
With some current dewpoints in the lower 20s in the western half of our forecast area, we could see a few locations drop several more degrees before temps steady out or start to rise. Clear skies prevailing and little change is anticipated through tonight, as an area of high pressure pushes east across the lower Ohio Valley.
644 PM EST Tue Dec 27 2016 High pressure into Wednesday.
These warm temperatures in the southern TX Panhandle may be associated with height rises moving northward as a small ridge works east from NM. Temperatures tonight with mid and high scattered to perhaps some bkn ceilings moving northward with the associated moisture from the east Pacific in-conjunction with weak WAA should keep overnight low temperatures warmer than the previous night with lows ranging from the upper 20s in the north to mid 30s in the southern Panhandle. During the day on Wednesday, slow mid level height rises will continue to move NE into the Panhandles region ahead of a cold front that will work its way southward toward the second half of the day. As we go into Wednesday evening, the cold front will make its way south across the Panhandles region switching winds to more northerly.
649 PM EST Tue Dec 27 2016 Aviation Tranquil weather will continue tonight through Wednesday night as a weak high pressure ridge builds in.
The front will lift north as a warm front tonight ahead of an upper trough and cold front that will move through Friday morning, providing a continued chance of thunderstorms, possibly severe.
This likely marks the position of a nearly stalled warm front with upper 50 degree dewpoints noted just to its south. Per latest SPC RUC analyses, instability generation has largely been confined to areas south of our area, however fcst models to include both the RUC and NAM suggest a narrow corridor of MLCAPE exceeding 500 J/kg extending north into our area later this afternoon and evening, just south of the warm front. This curvature combined with horizontal vorticity generation along the warm front suggests an isolated tornado threat will remain with any discrete cells that develop within the next few hours.
306 AM CDT Thu Mar 30 2017 Areas of rain showers and drizzle will impact eastern Kansas this morning, as the deep upper low slowly exits eastward.
Low pressure over the Mississippi Valley will move east over the next 48 hours, tracking just south of Pennsylvania late Friday.
A cold front has pushed east into WRN AR. expect at least some clearing and warmer temps in the 60s and even some 70s.
108 AM EDT Thu Mar 30 2017 Wrapped-up low pressure will bring rain to the upper Ohio Valley late Thursday through Friday. Much of the region should remain dry until late, however as we remain situated under an upper ridge. Only exception to this is north of I-80 where moisture spilling over the ridge and isentropic ascent support some rain showers by this afternoon.
Warmer today across the CWA as an upper ridge departs to the east and the upper flow backs to southwesterly. Much cooler and wetter conditions return tonight through Friday night as an upper low cuts off over southern Utah then drifts slowly east along the Colorado/New Mexico border. Falling surface pressures over Colorado will induce a cooler wind flow over the CWA Friday allowing temperatures to fall.
358 AM CDT Thu Mar 30 2017 Mid/upper level low pressure currently located directly overhead this morning. The cold front will pass through east central KS and generate scattered showers. The highest totals will be across western portions of the forecast area where the trowal is expected to linger and regenerate showers. The gusty winds will cover most of the area today, but are forecasted to gradually decrease through out the day as high pressure builds in behind the system. Once the cold front moves through temperatures will generally be in the 40s today with mostly cloudy skies. A brief break from precipitation is expected Friday as a weak ridge develops between the exiting trough to the east and the next approaching system over the Rockies.
408 AM CDT Thu Mar 30 2017 (Today and Tonight) Quiet and warmer today across west central Texas.
212 AM EDT Thu Mar 30 2017 A warm front lifts through today, followed by a cold front Thursday night and Friday.
Low pressure in eastern Kansas is pretty much vertically stacked, but it does make slow progress to the east.
A secondary front and surge of high pressure is currently resulting in gusty NW winds, with wind gusts around 18-24 kts.
427 AM CDT Thu Mar 30 2017 A slow-moving low pressure system will continue to influence the region today and tonight. Ongoing SHRA/TSRA early this morning will gradually move out of the CWA, leaving several hours for air mass recovery before the next round of convection develops ahead of an approaching cold front associated with the aforementioned low pressure system. Lingering precipitation behind the departing low pressure system should exit the region overnight. Overnight lows will be around 10 degrees cooler than last night due to a cooler post-frontal air mass. Kanofsky Another disturbance will move onshore near the CA/OR border on Thursday and settle into the southwestern CONUS on Friday as a closed low pressure system. Expect around 1-2 days between the increased precipitation chances associated with these periodic low pressure systems.
The warm front that brought widespread rain earlier today has moved out of region. A weak cold front will track across eastern Oregon tonight. and some of the higher mountains and valleys will get about 1-2 inches of new snow. After the passage of the upper level trough on Thursday. high pressure building at the surface and aloft will result in breezy to windy conditions.
The current satellite water vapor image is showing a trough of low pressure moving into the Pacific Northwest and Northern California. This trough of low pressure will ride up over the Sierra this afternoon and close off becoming a low pressure system over Nevada. The low will gradually deepen and head southeast towards the four corners placing eastern Utah and western Colorado into warm relatively moist unstable flow, which will result in showers and isolated thunderstorms this afternoon. The catch is that the exact location of where these bands will set up is difficult to forecast and there is some subtle differences with the various model solutions in the exact location and track of the low.
Warmer today ahead of a storm system that will bring increasing winds Thursday afternoon and tonight, with stronger winds Friday east of Tucson.
This evening's surface and upper-air analyses showed a deep-layer ridge over the Southeast, and a rather intense deep-layer trough over the Southern Plains. Q-G forcing and deep layer moisture will gradually increase across our forecast area as this trough approaches.
Moving on, the upper trough axis will cross the mid state late Thursday night, so shower chances will persist into Friday.