Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
At the surface, high pressure will remain centered across the Ohio Valley with the ridge stretching from northern TX to the far northeast. This ridge will also keep the weak frontal boundary over the southeastern U. Cooler temps move in Thu night with Friday morning lows in the 30s and 40s.
A stronger wave was pushing north along the Pacific Northwest coast, helping to nudge an upper ridge east into the Great Basin and northern Rockies. Modest lee troughing was bringing south to southwest winds back to most of Kansas with stubborn mid to low cloud over central and eastern portions of the state. The lower clouds currently spread southwest well into west and central Texas.
Have already seen fog develop west of the terminals where skies have been clearer longer, and temps are slightly cooler.
An upper level ridge axis will move across the state this afternoon as it starts to deamplify. An approaching weak trough will flatten the flow further and increase cloud clover late today and tonight from the west. An associated weak cold front will bring a slight chance of light rain showers to the west overnight. Highs will be warmer today, ranging from the upper 40s across the Turtle Mountains, to the low to mid 60s across the southwest. Tonight's lows will range from the lower 30s to lower 40s. Friday will see decreasing clouds and breezy conditions developing behind the weak cold front.
Areas that clear will have a much higher probability of fog given how high dewpoints are over the region (40s) and the low dewpoint depressions. light winds and moisture from recent rains could allow for areas of fog and or freezing fog to become possible.
However, some models hang on to clouds a little longer keeping highs cooler.
light winds and moisture from recent rains could allow for areas of fog and or freezing fog to become possible.
A mid/upper level trough is dropping into the region, with weak lift producing some light rain across N GA/N AL/SE TN. JB Chattanooga Airport, TN 51 37 58 38 61 / 40 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 50 34 58 35 59 / 20 0 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 52 34 56 36 59 / 10 0 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 50 31 56 31 57 / 10 0 0 0 0 TN.
This secondary trough will become the focus for storm development along the southeast coast and then up the eastern seaboard.
1107 PM MDT Wed Nov 3 2021 Clouds continue to linger across the northern and central mountains this afternoon, with maybe a shower or two still possible across the highest peaks. This won't be the case tomorrow, as the ridge currently building into the Intermountain West will strengthen and move east, bringing warmer air and even drier conditions. Earlier model runs had indicated that this system would be deeper bringing the potential for light showers across the higher terrain in the northern portion of the forecast area. A low amplitude transitory ridge of high pressure forms in the wake of the disturbance wake Friday afternoon though its axis will be driven east of the Continental Divide Friday night.
251 AM MDT Thu Nov 4 2021 The warming trend continues today as the ridge aloft progresses over the region. There may be a slight increase in the winds as this system passes to our north especially near the WY state line and the higher elevations. Overall this wave suppresses the ridge which will dampen the warm air advection, so highs tomorrow are not far off from today.
358 AM EDT Thu Nov 4 2021 Longwave mid level trough stretches from the central Great Lakes back through east Texas. At the surface, a sprawling ridge stretches from New England back through the Mid West. The high center is situated across the Ohio Valley. This low pressure system may help create some wedging down the spine of the Appalachians. As the upper level forcing moves off to the east, the precip should end, but the low level clouds may linger a bit longer, especially across eastern portions of the outlook area.
Upper level ridging currently over the western CONUS will gradually spread across and into the Northern Plains tonight and Thursday. An upper trof will push across the Rockies Thursday night, but any ill effects from that system will likely hold off until later on Friday. However, with a milder airmass advecting in for Thursday, will go a little above the model blend by mixing in some warmer MOS numbers.
Temperatures will begin to warm into the high 40s to mid-50s on Thursday as 850mb warm air advection ramps up. Quiet, mild conditions will kick off the new work week with broad upper level ridging persisting.
334 AM EDT Thu Nov 4 2021 Dry, cool weather is expected through Friday under high pressure. A passing trough to our north will continue to bring cold air and generate lake enhanced showers across Lake Erie. With prevailing flow from the west and lingering dry air in the low to mid-levels, areas near I-80 are expected to see very little to no precip. Otherwise, high pressure will maintain quiet weather for most of the region today and tonight. Building high pressure is expected to maintain dry weather into the weekend.
Areas downstream of Saginaw Bay will carry the higher end chances within that range. Greater influence of height rises edges in from the southwest by mid afternoon while the main trough axis slides into the eastern Great Lakes region. Expecting another day with below normal high temperatures as thermal trough is slow to exit east with the trough. Will lean on the cool side of guidance with lows again below freezing in the upper 20s to low 30s. Low level southwest flow kicks in for Friday as upper ridging progresses into the into the region.
Skies have cleared in northern and central portions of Lea County where temperatures have dropped to near freezing. Temperatures will warm above freezing just after sunrise this morning. Low level moisture remains in place and with light winds we could see a bit of fog/freezing fog this morning where the skies clear. Ridging builds in Friday with temperatures rebounding into the 70's.
This is in advance of a low pressure system approaching the Pacific NW coast. Upper ridge has brought mostly sunny, mild weather to our CWA today. The ridge will shift east tonight as a Pacific trough comes inland. The trough will bring light rain to northern areas Thursday, with a chance of light rain in southern areas. A weak surface cold front will move across eastern Oregon Thursday morning and western Idaho Thursday afternoon. Next Pacific cold front will begin a chance of light rain in Baker County late Friday night.
Ceilings and VSBYS should improve Thursday afternoon as a cold front moves through but winds will pick up especially at KRDM and KBDN where gusts of 40-50kt appear likely after 15Z. Gusty winds will impact the rest of the terminal sites Thursday afternoon and evening as a cold front moves across the area. A transition to VFR conditions will occur by Thursday evening as the winds mix things out behind the cold front.
245 AM CDT Thu Nov 4 2021 A transitional period to much milder temps will occur late this week as the persistent eastern US longwave trough is replaced by a progressive less amplified flow pattern. Friday still looks to be on the windy side as the pressure gradient tightens ahead of a surface to mid-level trough approaching from the northern plains. The strongest 850 mb flow will be centered just ahead of the trough from northern IA into southern MN. Most areas should reach or exceed 50 degrees on Friday with continued warm advection ahead of the trough.
North winds from 5-10 knots are expected with the highest gusts at KGLS. The cold front is pushing southward towards the coast, it just passed through Wharton and will push offshore late this afternoon.
1157 PM CDT Wed Nov 3 2021 High pressure will continue to keep our weather quiet for a few more days. This will result in highs returning to the lower 50s as early as Thursday, and reaching the 60s later this weekend. High pressure is centered over Lake Michigan this evening with ridging extending across central Illinois. The center of the high pressure remains just west of the CWA, and should drift through our area tonight. However, with a southwest flow setting up behind the high, more of the CWA should be able to reach around 50 degrees for Thursday's highs. Temperatures rise into the 60s this weekend as upper level ridging amplifies across the central U.
241 AM MDT Thu Nov 4 2021 Latest RAP analysis has northwesterly upper level flow with a ridge over the western CONUS. RH values in the lower 20s and wind gusts of 15-20 mph look to be the main concern along and west of Highway 27. Afternoon high temperatures were raised using the NBM 75th percentile, as the southwesterly winds, clear skies and advancing ridge are anticipated to have high temperatures in the upper 60s to low 70s especially over the western portion of the CWA. The warming trend continues with many locales reaching the low to mid 70s. Friday night, clear skies will prevail however the warmer air mass over the area will help limit radiational cooling again keeping overnight lows above freezing.
As it does, return southerly low level flow will settle in from the west, ahead of a trough tracking into the Northern Plains.
Elongated area of high pressure extending from the Great Lakes into the Southern Plains is expected to shift east today with gradually increasing southerly winds ahead of a weak trough moving into the Northern Plains. Temperatures warm slightly throughout the day on Friday, but warmer air as flow turns more westerly arrives Friday night into the weekend.
252 AM CDT Thu Nov 4 2021 Our cool spell continues in the short term, although temperatures tonight should end up a few degrees "warmer" than they were this morning thanks to an anticipated thickening stratus deck with time. Things will clear out through Thursday afternoon and overnight yielding another seasonably cool night with sub-freezing temperatures nearly area-wide.
Patchy fog with decreased vsbys will also be possible with the highest confidence at KROW. Then a ridge of high pressure will cross with warming temperatures during the latter half of the week and the weekend.
A bit more humid and warmer conditions on this Thursday morning as weak a low pressure approaches the Florida Peninsula this afternoon. The frontal boundary associated with this low is forecast to stall across the area through Friday.
1137 PM EDT Wed Nov 3 2021 Dry, cool weather is expected through Friday under high pressure. The most notable feature with the trough passage will be periods of clear and cloudy skies, as lake enhanced showers should remain north of the forecast area given more westerly flow and the overall lack of moisture preventing any additional shower development. Temperatures are expected to climb to near, and slightly above average by the start of the new week as a low-amplitude upper trough develops ovr the wrn CONUS and initiates warm advection for points ewd. High pressure in place will make for VFR conditions through the TAF period.
1157 PM CDT Wed Nov 3 2021 200 PM CDT Wed Nov 03 Our cool spell continues in the short term, although temperatures tonight should end up a few degrees "warmer" than they were this morning thanks to an anticipated thickening stratus deck with time. Things will clear out through Thursday afternoon and overnight yielding another seasonably cool night with sub-freezing temperatures nearly area-wide.
Areas of fog will be found, mainly across the eastern Texas Panhandle this morning, right behind the low clouds. Highs on Friday will be warmer still with readings in the mid 60's to the mid 70's South and southwest winds will prevail on the surface while heights increase aloft with the approach of a ridge.
507 AM MDT Thu Nov 4 2021 The warming trend continues today as the ridge aloft progresses over the region. There may be a slight increase in the winds as this system passes to our north especially near the WY state line and the higher elevations. Overall this wave suppresses the ridge which will dampen the warm air advection, so highs tomorrow are not far off from today.
439 AM CDT Thu Nov 4 2021 Today through tonight: Very light rain will continue to be possible in the east this morning, but as high pressure builds in expect mostly dry conditions for the remainder of the day. Skies will clear overnight as high pressure and dry air continue to build in.
Upper ridging will build over the region today with southerly sfc winds helping to draw up some waa. Much above average temperatures are anticipated this weekend, as an upper-level ridge axis moves overhead. However, there will be a gradual cool- down through the following work-week as the upper-level trough flattens.
510 AM EDT Thu Nov 4 2021 Dry, cool weather is expected through Friday under high pressure. Previous Discussion: A passing trough to our north will continue to bring cold air and generate lake enhanced showers across Lake Erie. With prevailing flow from the west and lingering dry air in the low to mid-levels, areas near I-80 are expected to see very little to no precip. Otherwise, high pressure will maintain quiet weather for most of the region today and tonight. Building high pressure is expected to maintain dry weather into the weekend.
/15/ Today through tonight: Very light rain will continue to be possible in the east this morning, but as high pressure builds in expect mostly dry conditions for the remainder of the day. Skies will clear overnight as high pressure and dry air continue to build in.
635 AM EDT Thu Nov 4 2021 High pressure and a dry airmass will remain in place across the region through the weekend. Clouds should then decrease from the west through the afternoon as we get on the back side of the mid level trough axis. The high will begin to shift slowly east through the day on Friday. The position of the high will allow surface winds to shift from the south, but the weak pressure gradient will keep winds light. With the widespread subsidence, skies continue to remain mostly clear, offering a favorable radiative cooling setup to allow lows to dip below freezing once again.
Conditions begin to deteriorate after 00Z as an area of low pressure moves east toward Florida. A bit more humid and warmer conditions on this Thursday morning as weak a low pressure approaches the Florida Peninsula this afternoon. The frontal boundary associated with this low is forecast to stall across the area through Friday.
Surface analysis early this morning shows strong high pressure in place stretching from NY state to Indiana and then to SE MO. Aloft water vapor shows a trough over the Great Lakes with an associated trough axis stretching SW across Illinois and MO. Strong ridging was found across the Rockies along with subsidence across the plains. The models suggest the trough axis aloft will push east of Indiana this afternoon and ridging will build across the northern plains. Given the slight increase in 850mb temps will trend highs slightly warmer than persistence. Ridging over the plains states is expected to make progress to the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley by Friday afternoon.
Some of these showers will hold together and make landfall over the southwest coast, with the highest rain chances south of Tampa Bay later this afternoon. Conditions begin to deteriorate after 00Z as an area of low pressure moves east toward Florida. Interaction between high pressure over the mid-Atlantic states and a frontal boundary over northern Florida will keep northeast winds around 10-15 knots in place through Thursday evening. Rain and storm chances then increase late Thursday through late Friday as an area of low pressure develops in the Gulf of Mexico and moves eastward through the eastern gulf waters and across Florida. The pressure gradient tightens between this area of low pressure and high pressure to the north producing increasing northeast winds and seas over the eastern gulf starting early Friday morning and continuing into the weekend.
An upper level trough will swing over the region this morning, bringing a few thin high clouds in addition to the lingering thin cirrus exiting the Lake Cumberland region. Temperatures will quickly jump back above freezing mid-morning and max out in the low to mid 50s this afternoon. Nevertheless, tonight will again be chilly with lows below freezing.
509 AM MDT Thu Nov 4 2021 The latest analysis has an upper ridge across the lee of the Rockies with an upper low off the WA Coast. Considerable high clouds were streaming toward the CWA, but much of these were dissipating as they are coming off the Rockies downstream of the ridge, leaving clear skies across the CWA at the moment. A low- level thermal ridge over the CWA will lead to a mild day and another mild night Thursday night/Friday morning. No major impactful weather is expected over the coming week, with the main item being gusty northwest winds behind a cold front on Friday.
726 AM EDT Thu Nov 4 2021 Dry, cool weather is expected through Friday under high pressure. With prevailing flow from the west and lingering dry air in the low to mid-levels, areas near I-80 should see very little to no precip today. High pressure will maintain quiet weather for most of the region today and tonight. Building high pressure is expected to maintain dry weather into the weekend.
KY Mesonet and regional observations show temperatures rising toward the 30 degree mark and are expected to rise above freezing shortly. An upper level trough will swing over the region this morning, bringing a few thin high clouds in addition to the lingering thin cirrus exiting the Lake Cumberland region. Temperatures will quickly jump back above freezing mid-morning and max out in the low to mid 50s this afternoon. Nevertheless, tonight will again be chilly with lows below freezing.
This will put high temperatures in the upper 70s to near 80 across these areas, and to the south, some breaks in the clouds early may allow temps to reach the lower 80s before the cloud cover fills in more. High astronomical tides, occurring at the same time as strong northeast winds that develop behind the cold front, is expected to lead to coastal flooding in some locations starting Friday morning into the weekend.
The higher elevations will see periodic winds of 20-30 mph with gusts near 40 mph this afternoon. Ahead of the front and precipitation, highs will push into the upper 50s to lower 60s in the lower elevations. Friday will be quiet with some gusty ridgetop winds, and slightly cooler temperatures.
542 AM CDT Thu Nov 4 2021 A transitional period to much milder temps will occur late this week as the persistent eastern US longwave trough is replaced by a progressive less amplified flow pattern. Friday still looks to be on the windy side as the pressure gradient tightens ahead of a surface to mid-level trough approaching from the northern plains. The strongest 850 mb flow will be centered just ahead of the trough from northern IA into southern MN. Most areas should reach or exceed 50 degrees on Friday with continued warm advection ahead of the trough.
Snow levels remain around 7,500-9,000 ft during the best moisture push this afternoon, leaving only light snowfall accumulation over the highest peaks. Activity is expected to clear the forecast area by Friday morning, with a transitory ridge anticipated through the early afternoon hours.
As such, high temps today will be approximately 1 to 4 F warmer than yesterday.
/Issued 358 AM EDT Thu Nov 4 2021/ Longwave mid level trough stretches from the central Great Lakes back through east Texas. At the surface, a sprawling ridge stretches from New England back through the Mid West. The high center is situated across the Ohio Valley. This low pressure system may help create some wedging down the spine of the Appalachians. As the upper level forcing moves off to the east, the precip should end, but the low level clouds may linger a bit longer, especially across eastern portions of the outlook area.
648 AM CDT Thu Nov 4 2021 The deep trough that brought the cold weather to the CWA for the past week is now pushing off into Middle Mississippi Valley this morning.
As the front and the upper-level trough associated with it moves through, the ridge that has been over the area will flatten. There will be some snow in the mountains tonight, with just slight chance of rain over the lower elevations.
Surface analysis depicts a sprawling, yet weak, area of high pressure being disrupted by a developing area of low pressure and associated frontal boundary along the Gulf Coast. Current KBYX radar highlights this shower activity has generally waned, with yet another area of scattered showers developing southwest of the Lower Keys in the western Straits of Florida. The aforementioned trough will slowly push southeastward toward the Florida Keys today through Friday.
506 AM MDT Thu Nov 4 2021 Latest RAP analysis has northwesterly upper level flow with a ridge over the western CONUS. RH values in the lower 20s and wind gusts of 15-20 mph look to be the main concern along and west of Highway 27. Afternoon high temperatures were raised using the NBM 75th percentile, as the southwesterly winds, clear skies and advancing ridge are anticipated to have high temperatures in the upper 60s to low 70s especially over the western portion of the CWA. The warming trend continues with many locales reaching the low to mid 70s. Friday night, clear skies will prevail however the warmer air mass over the area will help limit radiational cooling again keeping overnight lows above freezing.
The weather is quite different across central Alabama this morning with rain/cooler conditions across north Alabama and dry conditions across the south. A weak upper level short wave trough will pass to the north of Alabama today. The trough will remain rather flat across Alabama, which is why the models keep the rain from making any southward movement. Despite a sharp drop in mid level moisture today as the upper trof pushes east of the area, the air mass below 850mb will remain fairly moist with a stalled out surface front in the area. The models also show the low level winds switching from north to easterly by tonight, which will help keep the low level moisture in place.
The atmosphere will destabilize as a upper level trough axis moves overhead during the late afternoon to early evening hours. A longwave trough located off the Pacific Northwest coast will slowly track eastward towards the Northern Rockies. As the trough moves onshore, a series of Pacific weather systems will impact the region.
High pressure ridge will settle further south on Friday across northern Mexico though above normal heights will remain sprawled across the southwestern US, with dry and mild weather continuing under a southwesterly flow aloft.
153 PM MDT Thu Nov 4 2021 H5 ridge continues to slowly drift east across the central Plains today. It should clip the NW corner of the state, bringing a dusting to an inch of snow to the higher elevations of the Tetons and Absarokas through sunrise Friday. The westerly flow will also help to finally carve out some of the low clouds that have been stuck in Jackson Hole this afternoon, so some better visibilities returning for Friday.
Moisture continues to surge into the region ahead of a cold front this morning. Winds are picking up ahead of the cold front across the area this morning, and will continue through the afternoon with gusts to 35 mph primarily south and west of the Snake River Plain. Strong mid- level winds and some instability over the Boise and West Central Idaho Mountains appear to support isolated lightning development along the cold front this afternoon and early evening, so a slight chance of thunderstorms has been added to these areas. Isolated to scattered rain showers with mountain obscuration throughout the region with increasing clouds and lowering ceilings ahead of the cold front. An isolated lightning strike is possible near the Boise and West Central Mountains as the cold front passes.