Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
559 AM CST Sat Mar 12 2022 The models show the cloudiness associated with a warm front across wrn and ncntl Nebraska moving rapid east this morning and clearing ncntl Nebraska by 21z. The temperature forecast continues to lean toward the warmer 75th percentile of the NBM for lows in the mid to upper 20s and highs mostly in the lower 60s. A fairly strong Canadian cold front backs into ncntl Nebraska Sunday night.
The wind shift later today is due to an a mid-level ridge over the Great Lakes sets up immediately ahead of an incoming weak clipper that will bring some very light snowfall to the UP beginning later tonight in far western counties near Wisconsin and spreading eastward overnight.
Mid morning temperatures remain below freezing area wide with most of the area still in the 20s. Clear skies, a high sun angle and a dry north wind should help melt/sublimate the snow pack once we get into the 30s, but afternoon highs aren't expected to get much above freezing today, maybe 36 or 37 for most of the area.
/Tonight through Sunday Night/ A colder than normal air mass in place will gradually modify to become warmer by the end of the weekend under clear skies and southerly winds across the Ark-La-Tex. Maximum temperatures will be milder as a result, reaching the low- to-mid-60s areawide which is both near-normal for this time of the year and pleasant for outdoor activities. After midnight, cloud cover will redevelop south of the I-20 corridor ahead of an approaching warm front.
Gusts will range from 20-30mph with locally higher gusts in the ridges. Locally some spots could see another 1-2 inches with LES bands, but in general further accumulation will be minimal outside of the ridges where the Winter Storm Warning continues. A Wind Chill Advisory may be necessary for some ridge zones overnight if some wind lingers.
Any snow will quickly melt as afternoon highs will range from the middle 40s in south central Michigan to the lower 50s into west central Indiana.
Associated with this cloud cover, there could be a few flurries towards sunrise in the far northeast as a weak upper level low pressure system moves through the Great Lakes Region and is able to tap into the renewed southerly flow. Currently expect that highs should reach into the low to mid 50s, but could easily climb towards 60 near Vincennes.
Though temperatures have been greatly impacted by snowcover, warm air advection has been sufficient enough to bring MO River Valley temperatures in central SD into the low to mid 50s. Threw flurries in early this evening near the Buffalo Ridge in southwest MN. Tweaked temperatures cooler to account for snow cover capping diurnal heating from Lake Andes to Mitchell and Brookings, but otherwise largely expect a much warmer day Sunday. Cooler in southwest MN and the remainder of southeast/south central SD where warming won't be as pronounced and snowpack lingers.
Overall, not much change to going forecast with the northeast cwa still having the higher probs to see up to an inch of accumulation with under an inch elsewhere.
The sharp upper trough associated will be well east by days end as well.
(This evening through Sunday) South to southwest winds will remain up overnight with increasing pressure gradient as sfc pressure falls occur across the high Plains. Veered low level flow, after a milder morning, will bring in much warmer air into the area for Sunday. This area did not see as much wintry precip and will also be closer in proximity lower level thermal ridge that will set up across the panhandles Sunday afternoon.
This quickly changes by late evening ahead of a Pacific trough as precipitation develops along the Idaho/Montana border and quickly spreads eastward on Sunday morning. Light rain/snow in valleys could lead to a few slick spots as well with subsurface road temperatures near freezing. As the trough moves overhead on Sunday afternoon, precipitation will turn convective with brief heavy snow showers continuing on the passes and scattered rain/snow showers in the valleys along with breezy winds well into Sunday evening.
With high pressure centered over the southeast KS/southwest MO area, a tight gradient here is still producing some gusts upwards to around 30 mph at times. While this should relax some today, we like the Consshort depiction of a little higher overall average wind speeds/gusts through the bulk of the day, as that pressure gradient should be maintained until closer to mid afternoon or later, when the high pressure ridge shifts/nears the Tennessee Valley. With the high shifting east and anchoring across the South tonight, we'll see return flow southerlies develop for Sunday.
/Tonight through Saturday/ Key Messages: - Warming trend through the week - Mostly dry with next widespread precipitation chances late in the week Discussion: It has been a chilly day, hopefully the last for a while, across the area as a deep trough continues to influence weather across the midwest. This has shifted east with high pressure building. In areas that have seen the southerly winds today temperatures this afternoon have "warmed" into the low 30s west while parts of eastern Iowa remain in the teens. Upper level ridging will slide towards the area overnight, helping to reinforce the warm air advection regime. Broad upper level ridging will keep the area above seasonal normals in the 50s and 60s through the week.
Strong cold front moving through the area with line of stronger storms is pushing southeast of KMCO and will push rapidly southeast and south and offshore of the Treasure Coast through this afternoon. Rapidly deteriorating conditions will continue with the passage of strong cold front.
940 AM PST Sat Mar 12 2022 Sunny and mild today with light winds and high pressure aloft over the Southwest. Sunday will be cooler west of the mountains as onshore flow increases and the marine layer deepens.
The high center is expected to be over the area by nightfall. Temps have warmed and guidance showed values a degree or two warmer by the afternoon, so made a slight adjustment for the southern half of the CWA. Warming hasn't been rapid but values are slightly warmer than anticipated at this time.
1001 AM EST Sat Mar 12 2022 A strengthen area of low pressure just south of Long Island at midday will bring a significant snowfall to most of the area into this afternoon. NW winds will occasionally gust to about 30 kts with near blizzard conditions possible for several hours across the Lower Susq.
Water vapor satellite imagery at midday shows an upper level ridge over the western CONUS, and an upper level trough over the eastern CONUS. At the surface, high pressure is located over the far southern plains, and the associated pressure field has supported somewhat breezy southwest winds over our area through the morning and early afternoon. As a result, another morning of sub-freezing temperatures is expected Sunday morning with lows in the 20s.
/Updated at 1121 AM CST Sat Mar 12 2022/ High pressure will continue to build into the area through the short term with clearing skies through the day today. The pressure gradient causing this wind will weaken as the high pressure moves over the southeastern states. wind chill values are going to be about 10 degrees colder than the temperature today with wind chill values in the lower teens and lower 20's overnight tonight. Sunday, high pressure and clear skies will allow for a gradual warming to temperatures in the mid 50's.
High pressure remains in control this afternoon, although not for much longer, as an upper- level trough is quickly approaching the Pacific NW coast. The aforementioned trough will quickly swing through our region bringing with it a quick round of snow for much of eastern Idaho. Looks like sub- advisory level accumulations in the higher terrain. In addition to the snowfall, winds look to become breezy for much of the day so could have some localized blowing/drifting snow concerns in the higher terrain.
The upper level pattern features a highly amplified trough located just to the east of the area with the trough axis stretching southward from the eastern Great Lakes into the northeastern Gulf of Mexico. At the surface, the arctic front is now well to the south and east of the area with high pressure to the west across the Mississippi River Valley. There will also be a significant increase in upper level heights as the trough exits to the east and a ridge builds in from the west. All of these factors will combine to lead to rebounding temperatures with highs in the low to mid 50s on Sunday.
Pacific wave and a weak cold front will move thru the region tomorrow.
Upper ridging builds in a bit more on Sunday with lighter southeast winds in place ahead of an approaching low pressure system. Best chances for accumulating precipitation Sunday night will be along the tight thermal gradient north of the low. Freezing rain/freezing drizzle along the warm nose on the Coteau is less of a concern but may mix in with the snow.
343 PM EST Sat Mar 12 2022 A brief shot of very cold air will push into the region for tonight before a fast moving upper level disturbance and surface warm front brings a period of snow and a fresh light accumulation across Central and Northern PA.
Water Vapor imagery shows a ridge building over the intermountain region of the United States which will make the rest of Saturday fairly pleasant. As the ridge builds in from the west, this will bring some warm temperatures for Sunday afternoon that are near normal for mid-March. There will be some afternoon breezy conditions late on Sunday due to another trough passing through to the north of the CWA.
256 PM EST Sat Mar 12 2022 Discussion/Marine - Lake effect snow showers taper off by this evening Northwest flow lake effect snow showers will taper off and end this evening as surface ridging moves in with drying and subsidence.
300 PM EST Sat Mar 12 2022 A strong upper level trough will cross the area during the afternoon and early evening. A late season Arctic high pressure will build into the SE US through the weekend.
327 PM EST Sat Mar 12 2022 A brief shot of very cold air will push into the region for tonight before a fast moving upper level disturbance and surface warm front brings a period of snow and a fresh light accumulation across Central and Northern PA.
Mostly sunny and warmer today as an upper ridge moves eastward through our area. Upper low off Oregon 130W will weaken as it comes inland across Washington tonight, then an open trough as it passes through our CWA Sunday. Trough will bring rain, snow, breezy west winds, and cooler temps.
Portions of central Kansas, that saw the least amount of snow, could see Very High Fire Danger tomorrow, with afternoon relative humidity in the low 20s and southerly winds around 20 mph.
Despite the sunshine, high temperatures will only climb to around the freezing mark and wind chill values will be in the upper teens and low 20s. Thankfully we'll begin to experience some recovery as high pressure will shift east of the area on Sunday, allowing winds to veer to a southerly direction.
1143 AM CST Sat Mar 12 2022 The models show the cloudiness associated with a warm front across wrn and ncntl Nebraska moving rapid east this morning and clearing ncntl Nebraska by 21z. The temperature forecast continues to lean toward the warmer 75th percentile of the NBM for lows in the mid to upper 20s and highs mostly in the lower 60s. A fairly strong Canadian cold front backs into ncntl Nebraska Sunday night.
159 PM MST Sat Mar 12 2022 20z surface analysis had low near CWEQ with warm front into eastern NE and trough into south central MT. Chunk of AC/CI on front side of ridge exiting the CWA with some CU under it within well-mixed boundary layer across southeast MT/southwest ND/northwest SD. Should be an uptick in winds with trough before decoupling starts after 00z, so will keep current headlines intact. Thermal ridge expands into the area, so expect the usual warmer ring around the Black Hills for lows given downslope component to low level flow. Sunday night, upper trough moves through with meager moisture and forcing. A few showers may occur with a trend to snow showers over the higher Black Hills.
1027 AM MST Sat Mar 12 2022 With the breakdown of the highly amplified E. Pac ridge the upcoming pattern looks to be more progressive over the next 7-10 days. First however we get a break from wintery weather as a transitory ridge will be moving through over the next 24 hours.
Cool high pressure was centered across Iowa. Much warmer Sunday. One potential concern: the HRRR has shown a persistent signal for some light freezing rain farther south through the Interstate 80 corridor.
Northerly winds at or above 10kts will quickly wane after 13/00Z, and as high pressure shifts eastward, southerly winds return and intensify by the end of the period.
Visible satellite does show some HCR-like features in the low level cloud field streaming into the CWA from the northwest. Winds will remain elevated through late this evening or the first half of the overnight period, before high pressure builds in from the southwest and causes winds to drop below 5kt at all sites. Chattanooga Airport, TN 16 50 30 60 41 / 0 0 0 0 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 12 47 29 60 37 / 0 0 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 11 47 28 59 36 / 0 0 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 9 45 27 60 34 / 0 0 0 0 0 TN.
Shallow inversion will slow the winds reaching the river valley locations, but some of the ridge tops are also beginning to see gusts of 20 to 40 mph. Previous Discussion (3am):A warm front will lift across the region today as west winds increase. The High Wind Warning was maintained for SW Phillips County. The High Wind Watch was dropped for the remaining locations. A cold front on Sunday will deliver a chance for light rain and snow along with colder temperatures. High temperatures will range from the upper 20s along the immediate Canadian border to the lower 40s south of the Missouri River. Ensembles suggest upper ridging will become established once again across the western U.
(This evening through Sunday) The gradual warming we saw today with temperatures reaching into the mid to upper 50s, will translate into slightly warmer overnight lows tonight in the mid 20s to mid 30s.
324 PM EST Sat Mar 12 2022 Rapid changes underway as a strong cold front and attendant squall push through the western waters.
Wind, timing of the cold front, and associated precipitation is the main forecast problem of the day. Cold front will move through KAPF 18z-19z, KPBI 19z-20z, and FLL/MIA area terminals between 20z-21z.
The sharp thermal trough along the western flank of the New England cyclone will slide east tonight and longwave heights will start to increase. Moreover, it appears southern Lake Michigan may support a sharpening of the lower-level response and shed a region of cyclonic enhancement to the system relative flow - potentially offering a brief period of higher rates along and south of M-59.
Temps have warmed and guidance showed values a degree or two warmer by the afternoon, so made a slight adjustment for the southern half of the CWA. Warming hasn't been rapid but values are slightly warmer than anticipated at this time.
910 AM MST Sat Mar 12 2022 Gusty winds will continue today as warmer air continues to push into the area.
Visible satellite does show some HCR-like features in the low level cloud field streaming into the CWA from the northwest. Chattanooga Airport, TN 31 16 50 30 60 / 0 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 30 12 47 29 60 / 50 0 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 30 11 47 28 59 / 40 0 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 28 9 45 27 60 / 60 0 0 0 0 TN.
125 PM EST Sat Mar 12 2022 A strong upper level trough will cross the area during the afternoon and early evening. A late season Arctic high pressure will build into the SE US through the weekend.
Will also end the isolated pops in the high mountains by mid afternoon based on current trends. The strongest winds with the Front Range mountain wave have stayed over the higher elevations early this morning. These winds should continue for a few more hours, then fade as the flow aloft starts to diminish and the temperature profile gets less favorable due to warm advection in the low to mid levels. Drainage winds will help keep temperatures up in those areas, but some valley locations may not be much warmer due to the clear skies. This will also bring light snowfall to the areas in the high country. PoPs were updated to reflect the favorable moisture for the higher peaks.
The warming trend will continue Sunday as a low level thermal ridge begins to develop across western areas, with continued southerly return flow across the Permian Basin and Trans Pecos, and downsloping southwesterly flow across the mountains and adjacent plains. Breezy conditions will develop by Sunday afternoon, with highs expected to reach the upper 60s to middle 70s across Southeast New Mexico and West Texas, about 10 degrees warmer than today, close to normal for mid March. These warmer temperatures and breezy conditions may yield elevated fire weather conditions for portions of the region Sunday afternoon, and more on this can be found in the Fire Weather Discussion below.
Temperatures have finally climbed above freezing across most of the area with the exception being much of west Tennessee east of the Memphis metro area. As a result most of the area will dip back into the low to middle 20s. No freezing temperatures are expected across the Midsouth after Sunday morning for the next 7 days. Significantly warmer temperatures are expected tomorrow as weak ridging builds in from the west. Out West, a broad trough will begin to deepen over the Rockies and plains states setting up two storm systems set to impact the Midsouth over the upcoming work week.
Despite the full sunshine, temps are expected to stay AOB freezing over most of the PAH forecast area today. As a result of the southwesterly flow in the lowest layers of the atmosphere (mixing layer top at about 900 mb), and rising heights aloft, a significant warmup (temps/dewpoints) is forecast for Sun, with highs in the upper half of the 50s, except lower 60s west of Lake Wappapello in MO. After milder lows above freezing, deepening low level southwesterly flow will boost afternoon temps into the lower 60s Mon as clouds begin to increase from the west.
130 PM PST Sat Mar 12 2022 A trough of low pressure moving inland across California Sunday will bring cooling west of the mountains as onshore flow increases and the marine layer deepens.
425 PM MST Sat Mar 12 2022 20z surface analysis had low near CWEQ with warm front into eastern NE and trough into south central MT. Chunk of AC/CI on front side of ridge exiting the CWA with some CU under it within well-mixed boundary layer across southeast MT/southwest ND/northwest SD. Should be an uptick in winds with trough before decoupling starts after 00z, so will keep current headlines intact. Thermal ridge expands into the area, so expect the usual warmer ring around the Black Hills for lows given downslope component to low level flow. Sunday night, upper trough moves through with meager moisture and forcing. A few showers may occur with a trend to snow showers over the higher Black Hills.
205 PM PST Sat Mar 12 2022 Dry conditions with above normal temperatures are expected to continue due to high pressure aloft. A trough to our north will bring breezy conditions through and below the mountain passes in Kern County nearly all day on Sunday.
Scattered to isolated snow showers will wrap after midnight as high pressure builds and winds shift from the west (cutting off the supply of moisture from Lake Erie). With early morning temps below freezing, a half inch of snow may accumulate.
A weak ridge of high pressure lessens the winds and chances for precipitation through tonight. As precipitation ends Sunday night there is the potential for some freezing rain with loss of ice aloft. Overall the warmer air aloft remains to our south limiting this icing potential. A ride of high pressure aloft will move into the region to start the work week.
729 PM MST Sat Mar 12 2022 The High Wind Warning and Wind Advisory have been cancelled as winds continue to decrease. Pacific wave and a weak cold front will move thru the region tomorrow.
837 PM EST Sat Mar 12 2022 Late season Arctic high pressure will build across and offshore the Carolinas through the weekend.
900 PM CST Sat Mar 12 2022 Unseasonably cold/clear skies prevailed across the cntrl TN Valley this Sat evening, as a large dome of high pressure gradually moves ewd across the wrn/cntrl Gulf states. There will also be a significant increase in upper level heights as the trough exits to the east and a ridge builds in from the west. All of these factors will combine to lead to rebounding temperatures with highs in the low to mid 50s on Sunday.
652 PM EST Sat Mar 12 2022 Aviation - Lake effect snow showers taper off by this evening Northwest flow lake effect snow showers will taper off and end this evening as surface ridging moves in with drying and subsidence.
Models show the upper ridge over the CWA to flatten out overnight with west-southwesterly flow aloft developing through the day Sunday. There is some weak QG accent progged for the CWA on Sunday in advance of a weak upper trough. Concerning the low level winds, cross sections show the mountain wave to relax this evening with no wave signature overnight and Sunday. Moisture will remain sparse through Sunday morning, then an increase is expected with the next upper trough.
340 PM MST Sat Mar 12 2022 A ridge of high pressure sits squarely over the Great Basin, its axis running from the four corners northwestward to northern Idaho. A few clouds continue to spill over the ridge in the northern mountains of Colorado, while the rest of the region sits under blue skies and light winds. Southeast Utah will inch towards 60 degrees ahead of this front and the low valleys of western Colorado will see middle 50's. A modest jetstreak digging southward into Utah will help enhance the troughing late Sunday evening.
The first moves through tonight into Sunday morning with very strong winds across the ridges and Highway 395 corridor.
Skies will clear Sun AM, while the passage of the warm front and sunshine boosts temps well into the 40s for the afternoon. Overall, not much change to going forecast with the northeast cwa still having the higher probs to see up to an inch of accumulation with under an inch elsewhere.
903 PM CST Sat Mar 12 2022 Skies are clear across the Mid-South this evening with temperatures ranging from the lower 20s to lower 30s. Temperatures have finally climbed above freezing across most of the area with the exception being much of west Tennessee east of the Memphis metro area. As a result most of the area will dip back into the low to middle 20s. No freezing temperatures are expected across the Midsouth after Sunday morning for the next 7 days. Significantly warmer temperatures are expected tomorrow as weak ridging builds in from the west. Out West, a broad trough will begin to deepen over the Rockies and plains states setting up two storm systems set to impact the Midsouth over the upcoming work week.
Freezing temperatures anticipated again for tonight over the northern tier of counties, supported by the HREF/SREF probabilities, the raw NBM output, and the likelihood of strong radiational cooling from a very dry atmospheric column, light wind, and mostly clear skies, and very low dew points. Although dew points over the entire CWA are well below freezing, the GFS/NAM predict a gradual increase in PWAT values/moistening of the atmospheric column from south to north, yet still a very dry vertical column over the northern tier of counties.