Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
444 AM PDT Thu May 20 2021 An area of low pressure remains over or near the region the rest of the work week and through the weekend. Today and tomorrow: Today is shaping up to be the coolest and rainiest day of the week as the upper level low moves southeastward across southern Oregon into Northern California. Well- needed rainfall continues to fill the radar from east to west as moisture wraps around the backside of the low. Areas in the lower Columbia Basin can expect to receive around 0. Widespread precipitation chances will diminish tonight as the low and the main source of energy pushes south into Nevada.
The Florida Keys remain within a broad swath of enhanced gradient along the southern flank of the high, and to the northeast of generally lower pressure over the Bay of Campeche and Central America. From synopsis, a sprawling high pressure system currently centered to the northeast of the Delmarva will dominate the sensible weather elements across the coastal waters of the Florida Keys for the next several days.
The mid level short wave trough will be from north-central Texas south to the Victoria Crossroads today with a weak mid level low forming over the northwest Gulf of Mexico tonight. This low will drift northwest toward the lower and middle Texas coast on Friday.
646 AM EDT Thu May 20 2021 High pressure will result in dry conditions and above normal temperatures into the weekend. Upper high will be centered over the region. Temperatures are forecast to be a bit warmer than yesterday. High pressure at the surface and aloft will keep dry and warm conditions across the region. Both lows and highs will be just slightly warmer than persistence.
A low pressure system dropping down from the north will produce strong winds across the region today. The system will bring considerably cooler temperatures by Friday with scattered showers across the southern Sierra and south central Nevada with light snow accumulations possible above 6000 feet.
Low pressure system developing over the Northern Rockies will help send a warm front north across the area. Along and south of the warm front, this sunshine will allow for destabilization to occur and convective initiation to take hold. This low level moisture will help fuel an isolated strong to severe thunderstorm during the afternoon and evening hours. Tonight, as temperatures fall look for precipitation to transition to snow and/or a wintry mix with some potential for freezing rain over the Little Rockies and near the immediate Canadian border.
/issued 514 AM CDT Thu May 20 2021/ The pattern of weather continues this morning with the upper level ridge dominating the eastern US seaboard with the high anchored over the central Appalachians and an upper level low over the eastern slopes of the rockies. The ridge of high pressure aloft by late tomorrow continues to push this ribbon over southwest Louisiana and southeast Texas.
Precip chances continue into Friday as the main upper level low currently over the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles finally weakens and lifts off to the northeast. Ridge of high pressure currently over the Eastern CONUS is still progged to expand westward this weekend. Latest model solutions have backed off some on just how far west the ridge can make it into the CWA with the center now looking to be east of the Mississippi River.
613 AM CDT Thu May 20 2021 (Today and tonight) Upper level trough axis shifts east of the area this afternoon and takes the precipitation chances with it for today. Highs in the low to mid 80s and lows in the mid 60s.
Strong dome of high pressure over the Appalachians will continue to gradually build westward from the Appalachians overnight to the Ohio Valley by Friday. The influence of the ridge will provide subsidence and at least mostly dry and warm weather. Better chances of showers will be to the west, over the Ozarks, closer to low level jet and Texas upper trough. 850 millibar temperatures 13 to 15 degrees Celsius and plenty of sunshine should allow for afternoon high temperatures to be around 10 degrees above normal, in the lower and middle 80s. Overnight lows will be mild in the lower and middle 60s.
247 AM PDT Thu May 20 2021 Weather system moving into region will bring cooler temperatures, foothill and mountain showers along with a few afternoon thunderstorms through this weekend. The higher elevations will see some late season snowfall accumulations. Low pressure system is moving into the region and is currently producing some showers over eastern Shasta county and the northern Sierra from around Plumas county northward. As the low deepens today activity will spread further south to around I-80 by late morning and then spread south along the crest down through Tuolumne county in the afternoon. The central part of the low will move over Nevada on Friday with wrap around moisture spreading over the Sierra Nevada with more snow showers likely. Dry with breezy north winds will continue for the valley with temperatures becoming warmer but still cooler than seasonal normals.
Upper level omega block is the predominant pattern across the Eastern CONUS with ridging continuing to build in across our area. Today's highs will be about 5 degrees above normal with most locations reaching into the lower to mid 80s. Today Currently, ridging is in place across the eastern CONus with 500mb heights reaching to just below 5,900 meters. At the surface, ~1,030mb high pressure is centered over Virginia and the Carolinas. During the day today, ridging will continue to build with 500mb heights reaching above 5,900 meters by the late afternoon, which is over 2 standard deviations above normal for this area during this time of year. Nonetheless, highs have been outperforming most model guidance, so highs in the lower to mid 80s remain likely across most of the area.
708 AM EDT Thu May 20 2021 High pressure spanning across the East Coast to the central Great Lakes will support the summer-like temperatures through the end of the week. Upper level ridging and high pressure will continue to dominate overhead of the region through the period, resulting in mainly fair and warm weather with the addition of a slight humidity increase. Strong upper ridge continues across the region Friday. This will result in continued limited precipitation chances as the better moisture axis holds to the north and west of the area along the periphery of the ridge axis.
1025 AM EDT Thu May 20 2021 Current surface analysis shows area of high pressure centered over the Appalachians that will continue to expand westward over the OH Valley today. Expansive area of high pressure over VA/NC will continue to build westward today and tonight. As strong ridging continues to build in over the Ohio Valley today with continued southerly flow and more sunshine than yesterday, expect afternoon temperatures to be a few degrees warmer reaching the low/mid 80s across our CWA this afternoon.
914 AM EDT Thu May 20 2021 Broad high pressure is well established along the eastern seaboard and continues to ridge over Florida and into the Gulf of Mexico. Strong high pressure along the eastern seaboard ridges into the Gulf of Mexico and will keep gusty easterly winds around 20 knots through the end of the week, which has warranted a Small Craft Advisory over the eastern gulf waters. The high pressure retrogrades over the southeast U.
302 AM PDT Thu May 20 2021 An area of low pressure remains over or near the region the rest of the work week and through the weekend. Today and tomorrow: Today is shaping up to be the coolest and rainiest day of the week as the upper level low moves southeastward across southern Oregon into Northern California. Well- needed rainfall continues to fill the radar from east to west as as moisture wraps around the backside of the low. Areas in the lower Columbia Basin can expect to receive around 0. Widespread precipitation chances will diminish tonight as the low and the main source of energy pushes south into Nevada.
Made some minor adjustments to hourly temperatures over the next hour or two to bring warmer temperatures faster based on recent observational trends. Strong dome of high pressure over the Appalachians will continue to gradually build westward from the Appalachians overnight to the Ohio Valley by Friday. The influence of the ridge will provide subsidence and at least mostly dry and warm weather. Better chances of showers will be to the west, over the Ozarks, closer to low level jet and Texas upper trough. 850 millibar temperatures 13 to 15 degrees Celsius and plenty of sunshine should allow for afternoon high temperatures to be around 10 degrees above normal, in the lower and middle 80s. Overnight lows will be mild in the lower and middle 60s.
Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible Friday afternoon, with a better chance for storms over the weekend as a disturbance in the upper level disturbance atmosphere and cold front move across the region. Milder and muggy feeling for some tonight as ridging dominates at the surface and aloft. Only looking at isolated diurnal driven convection during the afternoon into early evening hours with better chances to initiated across the higher terrain.
SHORT TERM (Now through Friday Night): A robust omega blocking pattern will continue to develop this afternoon and evening over much of the continental US. As this occurs, a weak mid/upper level low will form over the western Gulf of Mexico tonight as strong ridging builds over the eastern CONUS. The low/inverted trough will slowly retrograde over Southern Texas Friday and Friday night. Precipitation chances will highly depend on the exact track of this mid/upper level low.
252 PM CDT Thu May 20 2021 Key messages: - More showers and storms expected this afternoon with the greatest precipitation chances from eastern KS into NW MO and the better thunderstorm chances shifted east of the highest precipitation chances. For the weekend, the upper ridge will be sitting over the Mississippi Valley.
200 PM CDT Thu May 20 2021 (Issued 200 PM CDT Thu May 20 2021) Tonight through Friday night: A 591 DM ridge centered across the OH Vly is proggd to slowly retrograde towards the central Plains. This will eventually result in the ridge axis being across WI. However before then a wave of mid level energy will temporary flatten the building ridge later Friday into Friday evening.
134 PM EDT Thu May 20 2021 A sharp upper ridge covering the U.
151 PM EDT Thu May 20 2021 High pressure over the eastern United States will remain in place through Friday before retrograding westward into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys through the weekend. However, with the strengthening ridge and height rises overhead, subsidence aloft is likely going to win out and am growing more pessimistic on rain chances. Have pushed high temperatures warmer than previous forecasts with a mix of upper 80s to near 90 today and then upper 80s to lower 90s for Friday.
Current surface analysis shows area of high pressure centered over the Appalachians that will continue to expand westward over the OH Valley today. Expansive area of high pressure over VA/NC will continue to build westward today and tonight. As strong ridging continues to build in over the Ohio Valley today with continued southerly flow and more sunshine than yesterday, expect afternoon temperatures to be a few degrees warmer reaching the low/mid 80s across our CWA this afternoon.
Deep troughing digs south into eastern Texas, while sharp ridging extends northward over the eastern U. Farther out into the Atlantic, troughing extends from near Nova Scotia southward to the east of Bermuda. A closed upper low will move through the base of this trough over the next few days and is the subject of a non- tropical low pressure system that the National Hurricane Center has a 90 percent chance of development out to 5 days. For our weather here in west central and southwest Florida, strong high pressure is well established along the eastern seaboard and continues to ridge over Florida and into the Gulf of Mexico. The high pressure slightly retrogrades over the southeast U.
234 PM EDT Thu May 20 2021 High pressure will support summer-like temperatures today and Friday. There's a better chance for a few showers and storms this weekend with the passage of a cold front. Upper ridge axis will remain across the area with dry and mild conditions expected Friday night.
Overnight low temperatures will be mild, mostly in the lower to mid 60s.
236 PM EDT Thu May 20 2021 Warm and dry conditions will persist through the weekend with lows in the low to mid 60s and highs in the mid 80s to near 90 degrees. An impressive 590 dam mid level ridge, centered over Ohio and the TN Valley, will continue to dominate into tonight and Friday with warm and dry conditions persisting. The weekend will likely feature more of the same (warm/dry) as the NAM/GFS continue to appear too aggressive in breaking down the ridge and dropping a strung out mid level PV southeast from the Upper Midwest.
Strong upper level ridging is forecast to strengthen and retrograde to and across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys through Friday. A dry subsident air mass under the ridging will keep the forecast mainly dry through the period, but cannot rule out some shallow, marine clouds pushing onto the coast with an isolated sprinkle or shower, and will keep PoPs near 10 percent at the coast. Afternoon high temperatures will continue to be near 80 to the lower 80s along the coast, and lower to mid 80s further inland.
The ridge will begin to slowly retrograde westward with the moisture axis also shifting westward into mainly western portions of the CWA by late in the day Friday.
1101 AM EDT Thu May 20 2021 High pressure will result in dry conditions and above normal temperatures into the weekend. Upper high is centered over the region. Temperatures are forecast to be a bit warmer than yesterday. High pressure at the surface and aloft will keep dry and warm conditions across the region. Both lows and highs will be just slightly warmer than persistence.
This area is in a well heated atmosphere with temps in the low-mid 80s in nrn SD and far srn ND and dew pts in the 60s.
122 PM EDT Thu May 20 2021 High pressure will dominate the weather into this weekend with minimal rain chances and increasingly warm temperatures. Adjusted temps up a bit, but overall high and dry with ridge building aloft. Light N-NW more variable winds this morning will become onshore and increase this afternoon, especially as along the coast in afternoon sea breeze, as high pressure extends down from the north. Pictures from space show clouds tracing out a highly amplified upper ridge, focusing a torrent of flooding rain into Louisiana and Texas, while cirrus above a dry atmosphere, dropped southward over drought- plagued Carolinas. High pressure both surface and aloft located to our west Friday night.
A warm front was located just southeast of Glendive as of 230 PM MDT with a sharp temperature gradient.
1217 PM CDT Thu May 20 2021 (Today and tonight) Upper level trough axis shifts east of the area this afternoon and takes the precipitation chances with it for today. Highs in the low to mid 80s and lows in the mid 60s.
1155 AM EDT Thu May 20 2021 A sharp upper ridge covering the U.
22/TD SHRA/TSRA will result in the lower IFR to briefly LIFR conditions where heavier rain occurs, mainly at KBTR to possibly KHDC/KMCB this afternoon, with lower confidence in occurrence of lower conditions at KMSY/KNEW/KASD eastward.
This vort lobe lifts northward along the western periphery of large ridge of high pressure sitting over the eastern CONUS.
248 PM MDT Thu May 20 2021 Upper analysis this aftn shows southwesterly flow aloft over the forecast area ahead of an upper low over the western CONUS. Latest surface analysis shows low pressure centered over SW WY/NE UT with a trough/front extending northeastward into SE MT, resulting in breezy to windy southeasterly low level flow across the forecast area. The frontal boundary will move southeastward as a cold front tonight. On Friday, the cold front will stall somewhere east of the Black Hills. 1000-2000J/KG MLCAPE will develop along and to the east of the cold front by afternoon. Relatively strong MLCIN will be an issue, but suspect forcing along cold front will be sufficient for surface based convection, some of which could be strong/severe.
The ridge axis is sharp, with rising heights sampled at 12Z across the Eastern United States. At the surface, a sprawling high pressure system centered northeast of the Delmarva reaches southwest into the Gulf of Mexico. Over the Bay of Campeche and extreme western North Atlantic, meager low pressure continues to fester. Very little change to the blocking pattern over the next several days.
A broad upper level low centered in southern Oregon and northern Nevada continues to stream shower activity northward across the Northern Rockies. Elsewhere, valley locations will likely see the bulk of accumulating snowfall on dirt, grass, and elevated surfaces due to warm subsurface temperatures and surface temperature profiles in the low 30s. Low temperatures will fall close to the freezing mark across much of western Montana tonight.
High pressure will continue building over the eastern CONUS today, and large scale subsidence will keep dry conditions in place for the Tennessee Valley. A beautiful May day ahead! The 500-mb anticyclone noted above will continue to strengthen as it shifts westward into the OH Valley on Friday, and should reach peak intensity as it retrogrades southwestward into Middle TN Friday night.
330 PM EDT Thu May 20 2021 A sharp upper ridge covering the U.
216 PM CDT Thu May 20 2021 Models remain consistent building strong SFC/LL high pressure and upper ridges over much of the eastern US.
As high pressure continues to advect a warmer airmass into the area, overnight lows will only drop into the low 60s, feeling a bit more like early summer than what we had a week ago. Will see the upper 80s on Friday as the upper high axis slowly begins to shift over the southeastern US. This high will become centered over the Tennessee Valley over the weekend, making for some of the warmest temperatures we have seen all year.
Upper low currently in southern Oregon will move to nwrn Nevada and southern Nevada tonight and Friday, then turn back northward in Nevada Friday night.
/Tonight through Thursday/ A highly amplified synoptic pattern remains in place over the conus with a deep trough out west and an downstream ridge out east. Widespread cloud cover and a few areas of drizzle and light showers are evident on satellite and radar which has hindered warming today with early afternoon temps generally in the low 70s. Warmer temperatures build for the weekend as the eastern upper ridge retrogrades west. NBM is considerably warmer than most model guidance, however highs in low to mid 80s appear reasonable given h85 temps warming to near 15c.
A ridge of high pressure is expected to remain in place through the rest of the short term period and into the weekend. Temperatures aloft look to be a little warmer than today which should allow for a few spots to either near or reach 90 degrees for the first time this year.
1107 AM EDT Thu May 20 2021 High pressure will support summer-like temperatures today and Friday.
450 PM EDT Thu May 20 2021 A sharp upper ridge covering the U.
312 PM EDT Thu May 20 2021 A sharp upper ridge covering the U.
214 PM CDT Thu May 20 2021 The upper level low that brought several days of rainfall to our region has finally departed to the east. These low clouds will quickly dissipate by late Friday morning leading to a pleasant and mostly sunny day with temperatures slightly warmer that what was seen today. The next upper level low will swing into the Great Basin this evening and slowly head towards our area.
Deterministic and ensemble guidance remain consistent with a developing strong upper level ridge over the Southeastern states.
East coast ridging will very slowly expand westward in the coming days. This will nudge a weak inverted sfc trof into the upper Tx coastal waters Fri. With drier conditions over the western sectors of the CWA, expect the higher rain chances to occur over portions east of I-45.
A few weak storms have developed west of here were the cu field eroded this morning and temps have been a bit warmer. Convection won't be towering, limiting the hail threat, but with any sustained storm in the low LCL environment, Iowa finds itself part of a long ribbon of the central CONUS with a small tornado threat.
Narrow bands of showers with a few embedded thunderstorms will remain likely across the region tonight into Friday as plume of deep moisture continues to lift north around periphery of upper high located over the eastern States.
343 PM EDT Thu May 20 2021 Upper level high will remain in place through Friday before retrograding southwestward into the lower Ohio and Tennessee Valleys through the weekend. Upper high to drift southwestward, but little changes forthcoming in the sensible weather across the region.
1116 AM PDT Thu May 20 2021 An area of low pressure remains over or near the region the rest of the work week and through the weekend. The lower Basin, Waterville Plateau, and Highway 97 corridor from Oroville to Wenatchee has not been as lucky with amounts around 0. Winds are getting drawn into the low to our south resulting in northerly wind gusts near 25 mph down the Okanogan Valley and 20-30 mph through North Idaho within the Purcell Trench at locations like Sandpoint and Cd'A airports.
157 PM CDT Thu May 20 2021 A weak ridge moves over the region today as an upper low over WA/OR sinks southward.
250 PM EDT Thu May 20 2021 Feeling a bit like summer today as temperatures are reaching into the lower 80s across much of the area. And temperatures will only get warmer from here over the next several days. Friday will then be similar to today with temperatures just expected to be a couple of degrees warmer in the mid to upper 80s.
309 PM CDT Thu May 20 2021 Amplifying upper air pattern developing with trough in the west and ridge in the east.
The lowered heights and meridional moisture plume has been responsible for the rather unimpressive/ragged shower and thunderstorm activity over parts of IA/WI/MN. Locally, Southeast Michigan resides within the internal thermal ridge with warm midlevel temperatures at 12. Absolute vorticity progs support the ridge folding over with a true AVA signal during the afternoon for better compressional warming potential. Think highs tomorrow should be a couple of degrees warmer, but given the environmental temperature profile and the inversion feel there is a very firm upper limit to what highs can achieve.
At the surface, a low pressure center is deepening over northern Wyoming. Extending northeast from this low is a stationary boundary that is currently situated generally from the far southwest, and up to Bismarck and east along the I-94 corridor. This boundary should remain pretty much stationary as the low begins to move northeast towards the state, possibly sagging south slightly. As the low deepens across northeastern Wyoming, storms will develop across the higher terrain. Lows will range from the upper 30s across the northeast to the lower 60s southeast. Further west around and behind the low, we are more confident that elevated showers and storms will form. Temperature wise Friday, highs will range from the upper 40s across the far northwest to the lower 80s across the southeast.
Strong high pressure to the north northeast of the region will maintain the breezy onshore pattern through Friday.
Additionally, a well-defined atmopshierc river is seen in PWAT between the ridge in the east and trough in the west. However, retrograting ridge is expected to nudge the deep moist axis westward some by late in the day perhaps resulting in some expansion of shower coverage back into southeast sections of the area, particularly with even the most subtle perturbation drifting northward within mean flow, given the anomalous moisture. Wet ground, cooler temperatures from today's rain, and weak surface moisture advection tonight will likely result in fog for portions of southeast Oklahoma.