Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
The 19z MSAS surface analysis showed a cold front stretched from northeast MN south-southeast into western WI, then south into western IL. Showers/scattered thunderstorms will continue to track across the rest of eastern WI this evening as the cold front sweeps eastward through the region. A tightening pressure gradient, steepening lapse rates and strong subsidence behind the cold front will bring gusty west winds to the area later tonight which will carry over into Monday. It will also feel like autumn on Monday as max temperatures are only expected to reach the lower to middle 50s north, around 60 degrees elsewhere. Monday Night Through Sunday The upper low will move slowly south from Lake Superior to the Ohio Valley by the middle part of the week.
Quiet weather with dry air and warmer temperatures will dominate the region today.
751 AM EDT Sun Sep 25 2016 A large area of high pressure will keep it fair today. Low pressure will move into the Upper Great Lakes in the first part of the week, and push a cold front through the region late Monday and Monday night. More interestingly, there will probably be some low crud creep in on a light srly flow late tonight as the axis of high pressure moves east and a cold front sweeps through the OH valley.
/issued 940 AM EDT SUN SEP 25 2016/ Morning water vapor satellite imagery is showing an upper level low spinning over the Florida Panhandle, while a plume of moisture produces showers and thunderstorms off the southeast coast of Florida and western Bahamas. KTBW 12Z sounding shows that the low levels remained moist, with light and somewhat variable flow. The low level moisture will be enough for isolated thunderstorms to develop early this afternoon, increasing to scattered coverage during the late afternoon and early evening. Weak high pressure will hold north of the waters through the first half of the week, with light and generally easterly flow turning onshore each afternoon near the coast with the sea breeze.
which will persist along and behind a weak cold front that will enter the region shortly after 00Z. Some minor changes were made to the hourly temp and dewpoint grids based on latest obs and trends, but the high temp forecast for today was left intact.
A persistent low pressure system will bring gusty winds today, along with a chance of showers and thunderstorms through midweek. Expect cooler temperatures today, then daytime temperatures returning closer to normal late in the week. Water vapor imagery this morning showed a closed upper level low over central Baja.
Believe this pattern will hold through this afternoon and possibly up until sunset due to slightly better instability compared to yesterday combined with moderate forcing still present in the mid levels due to a weak upper low located over much of the florida panhandle stretching north over lower parts of Al and Ga. A weak upper level low will linger across the area today. The combination of the upper low and better deep layer moisture levels will allow for a slightly better chance of showers and thunderstorms, especially across eastern zones under the upper low.
359 AM CDT Sun Sep 25 2016 The first challenge for today will be timing the final wave of precipitation swinging around the back side of an upper low progged to pass through the region. Therefore, continued with the highest PoPs across the northern third of the forecast area with decreasing chances further south. With high pressure then building into the High Plains, a fairly tight pressure gradient will set up across the area.
A weak warm front offshore will lift northeast into British Columbia today. A strong upper ridge will give warm weather to the area through Monday. A cold front will move through the area Monday night.
655 AM CDT Sun Sep 25 2016 Showers and scattered thunderstorms across eastern Kansas early this morning will slowly move to the east through today as a slow moving cold front makes its way through the Ozarks. The cooling trend and fall temperatures will begin Monday as cool Canadian high pressure filters into the Ozarks behind the cold front. As the ridge moves over the region a sprawling area of high pressure will spill across the plains all the way to the Gulf coast. This will bring very nice weather to the region with sunny skies, mild temperature in the lower to middle 70s, and lower humidities through the end of the week. A cold front will approach the reigon today and move through the are by Monday morning.
A surface boundary was located across southeast Georgia this morning along the leading edge of high pressure building southward along the eastern seaboard. NE to east winds will prevail this afternoon around 10 knots as high pressure builds to the north.
Overnight lows will be cooler than the last several days, with mid to upper 50s common, except in the southeast parts of the CWA where lower 60s is likely. Main focus for the longer range period will be the evolution of the current upper low spinning over North Dakota. Models remain in good agreement in this evolving into a fairly strong upper low over Lake Superior by midday Monday, with the low only slowly weakening with time as it wobbles across much of the Midwest. The latter week still shows some discrepancies with the track of this low.
328 AM CDT SUN SEP 25 2016 A cold front currently over the eastern Great Plains will move slowly eastward into Missouri this afternoon and into Illinois this evening. The area is still on the western periphery of a strong mid and upper level ridge which is providing synoptic scale subsidence for much of the area. Models have this ridge weakening through the day as the longwave trof over the Plains continues moving east. The front should be near the I-44 Missouri/I-55 Illinois corridor by early evening with rain ending behind it as cooler and drier air pushes in from the northern Plains.
1054 AM EDT SUN SEP 25 2016 An upper-level ridge will continue to build east into the area through today. A cold front will approach from the north today and stall across the area Monday providing a focus for scattered showers and thunderstorms.
300 PM EDT Sun Sep 25 2016 High pressure to the north will extend over the area through Monday.
1226 PM CDT SUN SEP 25 2016 Cold front was making steady progress through the forecast area, located from about Sioux City, IA southwestward to Hebron, NE at 07z. Then the upper trough moves through the area this afternoon. It will be significantly cooler than yesterday with highs 68-71 and breezy northwesterly conditions. The remainder of the short term will be dry and quiet with high pressure prevailing.
Showers and scattered thunderstorms across eastern Kansas early this morning will slowly move to the east through today as a slow moving cold front makes its way through the Ozarks. The cooling trend and fall temperatures will begin Monday as cool Canadian high pressure filters into the Ozarks behind the cold front. As the ridge moves over the region a sprawling area of high pressure will spill across the plains all the way to the Gulf coast. This will bring very nice weather to the region with sunny skies, mild temperature in the lower to middle 70s, and lower humidities through the end of the week. A cold front will move through the area Today therefore scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible this afternoon into early evening before transitioning to showers behind the front.
Mid/upper level ridge continues to dominate the weather over the area providing mostly dry and unseasonably hot daytime conditions. This will continue for one more day before the first significant cold front of the season moves through Monday. Though hot conditions will continue today, the mid/upper ridge will begin to be squeezed somewhat by approaching wave over the mid MS valley and a weak westward moving cold core low over south AL/northwest FL. While majority of upper level support for the approaching cold front will lift off to the northeast tonight, support will remain sufficient to push the boundary through the forecast area during the day Monday.
800 AM MST SUN SEP 25 2016 Quiet weather with dry air and warmer temperatures will dominate the region today.
Redevelopment overnight is expected across the gulf waters with coverage expected to spread farther west inland as a cold front approaches the area. Outside of upper 80s/90s today, temperatures will be cooler for Monday.
A cold front was located from western Illinois through western Arkansas and into east Texas. As the cold front moves east tonight reaching the forecast area overnight some thunderstorms may develop ahead of the front and moves into region. THe cold front will move out of the forecast area Monday morning with some more thunderstorms expected to develop near the front. Drier and cooler air will start to move into the region on Monday with highs ranging from the mid 70s to mid 80s. This will be some 15 degrees cooler than today. High pressure will start take control of the weather by Monday evening.
1039 AM EDT Sun Sep 25 2016 A large area of high pressure will keep it fair today. Low pressure will move into the Upper Great Lakes in the first part of the week, and push a cold front through the region late Monday and Monday night. More interestingly, there will probably be some low crud creep in on a light srly flow late tonight as the axis of high pressure moves east and a cold front sweeps through the OH valley.
612 AM CDT SUN SEP 25 2016 An upper level trough continues to swing across the Northern Plains very early this morning, with the surface cold front presently situated along the Interstate 29 corridor. It will be drastically cooler today, with readings a good 10 to 20 degrees cooler than yesterday, with highs remaining in the 60s. Clouds clear out tonight with winds slowly dropping off as surface ridging nudges eastward into the Northern Plains. Do think that winds will remain just strong enough to prevent temperatures from completely bottoming out in the cool airmass, though will still reach normal levels for this time of year - in the lower to mid 40s. Large trough digging in across the northern Great Lakes will keep the area in a mixy northwest flow through Monday.
303 PM EDT Sun Sep 25 2016 High pressure will build into the area through Monday. The high will move out into the Atlantic Monday night.
The surface and upper high pressure systems have moved east, and a cold front in northeast OK and south-central MO slow moves southeast.
230 PM CDT SUN SEP 25 2016 The much anticipated cold front is making its way through the forecasst area this afternoon and is currently positioned near Interstate 44. A cooler and drier airmass will settle over Oklahoma and Arkansas behind the front, as evidenced by dew points in the 30s and 40s in Kansas and Nebraska at present.
The surface and upper high pressure systems have moved east, and a cold front is slowly moving east with convection associated with it over eastern OK and KS to north TX. ushering in much cooler and drier conds for the new work week. North winds wl usher much cooler/drier airmass into the region Mon and Mon night.
653 AM EDT Sun Sep 25 2016 High pressure will build in from the north today and extend over the area through Monday.
Skies are sunny across the region as high pressure builds in from the north and northwest. Cooler temperatures at lower and mid levels this morning will hold afternoon high temperatures down somewhat. Weak upper level trof axis will be moving across Eastern Colorado today with a continued subsident airmass in place. Temperatures today will be cooler today with readings only in the 60s over the plains.
712 AM CDT SUN SEP 25 2016 A cold front currently over the eastern Great Plains will move slowly eastward into Missouri this afternoon and into Illinois this evening. The area is still on the western periphery of a strong mid and upper level ridge which is providing synoptic scale subsidence for much of the area. Models have this ridge weakening through the day as the longwave trof over the Plains continues moving east. The front should be near the I-44 Missouri/I-55 Illinois corridor by early evening with rain ending behind it as cooler and drier air pushes in from the northern Plains.
Building high pressure will bring dry conditions with a warming trend through the first part of the week. It's a beautiful fall morning in Utah and southwest Wyoming, with sunny skies dominating across the region as a large ridge of high pressure builds over the west coast. Other than some high clouds drifting over the area in a northerly flow, these sunny conditions will continue through this afternoon, with max temperatures generally 5-10 degrees cooler than average for September 25.
ushering in much cooler and drier conds for the new work week. North winds wl usher much cooler/drier airmass into the region Mon and Mon night.
1026 AM EDT SUN SEP 25 2016 The upper level ridge continues to be the main influence in keeping the area warm and dry. There is a backdoor cold front located along the mountains that could bring a few isolated to scattered shower/storms later this afternoon to locations along the TN/NC line. Chattanooga Airport, TN 94 69 87 60 / 0 0 50 40 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 92 67 85 58 / 10 0 50 40 Oak Ridge, TN 92 67 84 58 / 0 0 50 40 Tri Cities Airport, TN 89 63 82 57 / 0 0 50 50.
Meanwhile, a cold front (now across far northwest Oklahoma, close to KGAG and KWWR) will sweep quickly southeast today, reaching approximately KADM to KSPS late this afternoon or early this evening. The general confidence in ceilings prior to frontal passage is very low, because of the numerous holes in the low ceilings and many different cloud layers. A cold front across western Kansas into the Oklahoma Panhandle will move fairly quickly southeast across Oklahoma this morning, and toward the Red River this evening.
A large ridge will dominate the weather for a few day with a warming and drying trend.
Under a weak wind and clear sky tonight have opted to follow the cooler MAV guidance more closely for overnight lows. The lowest we went was 35 around Hettinger, so no freeze, but patchy frost. Strong mid level ridging follows for much of this week.
250 AM MST SUN SEP 25 2016 Quiet weather with dry air and warmer temperatures will dominate the region today.
SHORT TERM (Today through Monday): A 500mb low will develop across northwest Mexico today as the main energy associated with the 500mb trough across the west- central United States moves into the north- central U. a weak cold front will move across northwest TX today. Rain chances will increase across western portions of deep south TX late tonight into Monday as the 500mb low across northwest Mexico and the 500mb trough moving eastward across the north central U. Will adjust pops slightly higher west and slightly lower east tonight into Monday and mention heavy rainfall with thunderstorms Monday as moisture continues to pool along and ahead of the weak cold front across south TX.
Showers continue to quickly push towards the east through central North Dakota into the James River Valley, while cold front is now working its way through the James River Valley. Under a weak wind and clear sky tonight have opted to follow the cooler MAV guidance more closely for overnight lows. The lowest we went was 35 around Hettinger, so no freeze, but patchy frost. Strong mid level ridging follows for much of this week.
1240 PM EDT Sun Sep 25 2016 High pressure will build in from the north today and extend over the area through Monday.
311 AM MDT SUN SEP 25 2016 The current satellite water vapor image is showing yesterday's storm system now centered over central North Dakota dragging it's cold front through the Great Plains. High pressure is now building in over the Western CONUS. All three models show high pressure steadily building over the western states, providing clear skies and dry weather through Monday night.
946 AM EDT Sun Sep 25 2016 High pressure will build in from the north today and extend over the area through Monday.
345 PM EDT Sun Sep 25 2016 Rain showers will accompany a strong cold front tonight into early Monday morning.
A cold front across western Kansas into the Oklahoma Panhandle will move fairly quickly southeast across Oklahoma this morning, and toward the Red River this evening.
1130 AM CDT SUN SEP 25 2016 Band of showers and thunderstorms expected to accompany a strong cold front this afternoon as it cont to push south through the area. Meanwhile, a cold front (now across far northwest Oklahoma, close to KGAG and KWWR) will sweep quickly southeast today, reaching approximately KADM to KSPS late this afternoon or early this evening. The general confidence in ceilings prior to frontal passage is very low, because of the numerous holes in the low ceilings and many different cloud layers. A cold front across western Kansas into the Oklahoma Panhandle will move fairly quickly southeast across Oklahoma this morning, and toward the Red River this evening.
750 AM EDT SUN SEP 25 2016 Aviation Enjoy the mild weather today because a cold front passage tonight will usher in more fall like weather for a few days.
210 PM EDT SUN SEP 25 2016 An upper-level ridge will continue to build east across the region tonight then move off the coast on Monday. A cold front will approach from the north today and stall across the area Monday providing a focus for scattered showers and thunderstorms.
1037 AM MDT SUN SEP 25 2016 The current satellite water vapor image is showing yesterday's storm system now centered over central North Dakota dragging it's cold front through the Great Plains. High pressure is now building in over the Western CONUS. All three models show high pressure steadily building over the western states, providing clear skies and dry weather through Monday night.
A cold front will pass through the area late tonight and early Monday morning.
Skies will be mainly clear to partly cloudy as some mid- to upper-level cloud cover spills over the high pressure ridge building into our area.
226 PM EDT Sun Sep 25 2016 Showers and scattered thunderstorms can be expected with a Monday cold front. Dry high pressure will continue to suppress clouds and precip into Monday. A warming column/developing warm advection and encroaching early morning stratus from east of the ridges should offset initially efficient radiation tonight. A deepening mid level trough is projected to close over the Northern Great Lakes on Monday as it drives a cold front across the Upper Ohio.
BMickelson Previous short term discussion: A strong low pressure system currently centered over southern Manitoba with an upper low over North Dakota will continue to move to the northeast today. Sunshine will allow for warmer temperatures. High pressure tonight will allow for clear skies and light winds.
Larger upper level low remains over the FL Panhandle this morning with a weaker vort max offshore the East Central FL coast.
However, we are in for a big change over the next 24-36 hours as a strong cold front pushes through the region tomorrow. The latest guidance is in fairly good agreement with the cold front beginning to push into southern IN before dawn tomorrow morning. Across east central KY, temps will rise in the morning ahead of the front, but look to hold steady or drop with the rain and the cooler air in the afternoon.
318 AM CDT SUN SEP 25 2016 An Upper level trough continues to swing across the Northern Plains very early this morning, with the surface cold front presently situated along the Interstate 29 corridor. It will be drastically cooler today, with readings a good 10 to 20 degrees cooler than yesterday, with highs remaining in the 60s. Clouds clear out tonight with winds slowly dropping off as surface ridging nudges eastward into the Northern Plains. Do think that winds will remain just strong enough to prevent temperatures from completely bottoming out in the cool airmass, though will still reach normal levels for this time of year - in the lower to mid 40s. Large trough digging in across the northern Great Lakes will keep the area in a mixy northwest flow through Monday.
313 PM EDT Sun Sep 25 2016 Cold high pressure crosses the region tonight. Most towns away from the coast will see their first frost or freezing temperatures tonight.
813 AM EDT SUN SEP 25 2016 An upper-level ridge will continue to build east into the area through today. A cold front will approach from the north today and stall across the area Monday providing a focus for scattered showers and thunderstorms.
Once the cold front across the NW zones moves through later this morning we will see visibilities improve once again. /Issued 258 AM CDT SUN SEP 25 2016/ One upper level trough extended from an upper low over the North Dakota/South Dakota state line southwestward into southeast Colorado. Another upper level low was just about ready to cutoff from the flow over northern Mexico. The northern stream trough will help to drive a cold front southward across the panhandles this morning. Winds will decrease into the 5 to 10 mph range tonight as high pressure starts to build in.
542 AM EDT Sun Sep 25 2016 A large area of high pressure will keep it fair today. Low pressure will move into the Upper Great Lakes in the first part of the week, and push a cold front through the region late Monday and Monday night. More interestingly, there will probably be some low crud creep in on a light srly flow late tonight as the axis of high pressure moves east and a cold front sweeps through the OH valley.
Scattered showers with embedded thunderstorms are expected to spread across Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas through the day as a cold front moves through the CWA. Additional thunderstorm are expected to develop later this morning and become more numerous as cold front moves into northeast Oklahoma around mid morning. Cold front will continue pushing south through the area this afternoon however overall thunderstorm coverage along the front may begin to decrease as region becomes split between upper low developing to the west and upper trough lifting northeast.
1034 AM EDT Sun Sep 25 2016 High pressure moving out of Canada will bring cooler temperatures and drier air to the region through tonight. Most towns in the area will see their first frost or freezing temperatures tonight.
329 AM MDT Sun Sep 25 2016 Weak upper level trof axis will be moving across Eastern Colorado today with a continued subsident airmass in place. Temperatures today will be cooler today with readings only in the 60s over the plains.
An upper level low continues to spin over the Florida Panhandle this afternoon, and is forecast to drift southeast towards into the eastern Gulf of Mexico through Monday. At the surface, high pressure over the northeastern CONUS will shift southeast into the western Atlantic tonight and Monday as a potent trough digs into the western Great Lakes region. A rather amplified pattern will set up with a sharp ridge building over the mid-west and a downstream trough digging over the eastern United States.
428 AM EDT Sun Sep 25 2016 High pressure will build in from the north today and extend over the area through Monday.
This equates to the 60s and 70s across the lower elevations where most folks live. As one might expect, it'll be even cooler up in the mountains with highs in the 50s, 40s and even 30s just depending on how high up you go. It'll be another night of near freezing temperatures in the mountains, with mid 30s to lower 40s for the plains.
Cold front has passed through NE OK terminals with scattered showers gradually expanding behind the front.
148 PM EDT Sun Sep 25 2016 Dry and mild conditions are expected under an upper level ridge today. Rain showers will likely accompany a strong cold front tonight into early Monday morning.
(Issued 223 AM CDT Sun Sep 25 2016) This morning's wx map shows a cdfnt extending from an upper low over the nrn plains to nwrn TX, while an upper ridge stretched from the Great Lakes thru the sern US. There was also a weak upper low over nrn FL which was bringing an increase in mid/high level moisture over much of central and srn AL, as well as GA.
The cold front is currently pushing across central Missouri and should reach our area in the evening hours.