Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
The snow is beginning to end across our western zones and the snow will gradually end from west to east late this afternoon or early evening as the mid level trough axis translates eastward. The winter weather advisory has been expanded to include Merrick and Polk Counties and has been extended in time across the Highway 81 corridor until 7 pm. The weather remains dry through Thursday and temperatures will trend warmer for a day as the mean upper trough axis shifts east, allowing for height rises and warmer air to move in briefly.
Have dropped most of the winter advisory except for south central and far southwest Illinois as well as southeast Missouri where these counties may still be seeing some freezing drizzle. Latest IR imagery is showing that cloud tops are beginning to warm as a low amplitude trough is already moving across the Missouri and Illinois. Any residual freezing drizzle and flurries over the southern and eastern parts of the CWA early this morning will be short lived as drier low level air moves into the region. In the meantime, warm front to develop north of I-70 then lift just north of forecast area by late Thursday night.
The light snow will end from north to south through 12Z as the upper trof moves past the terminals.
Temperatures were generally in the low to mid 20s, except for south central Missouri which was still in the upper 20s.
326 AM CST Wed Feb 7 2018 High pressure continues to shift in from the northwest this morning, and will be over central SD by 12Z, before sinking across eastern NE/KS through the rest of the morning, keeping a ridge extended over the eastern half of SD. The ridge will finally exit our MN counties by 00Z, with warm air advection taking hold tonight. Warmer air aloft, and the addition of significant cloud cover, should keep temperatures from tumbling too far tonight. Models have trended the warm front farther south again on Thursday.
The clouds have held temperatures down although we are finally starting to see temperatures above freezing for all but a few stations, and most of those are across the northern and central Rolling Plains. North to northeast wind tomorrow will keep a bit of cold air advection in place but clear skies through the day should allow highs to climb back into the low to mid 50s across the area. Lee troughing will take place on Thursday which will help boost temperatures up into the 60s across the area but a southerly as opposed to southwest or westerly direction will limit downslope warming component.
Meanwhile, patchy light freezing drizzle is possible late this afternoon and evening across far southeast Kansas, as lift and low- level moistening increases. A gradual warming trend is expected the next few days, with daytime temperatures reaching the 50s to near 60 degrees Thursday, as mixing and southwest flow increases ahead of the next cold front.
Temperatures will flirt with the freezing mark today in southern portions of the forecast area as sunshine works to eliminate the shallow snow pack, then stronger warming will begin Thursday as temperatures increase aloft and southerly flow returns. The next trough will translate to only a glancing blow for the CWA as a cold front drapes and stalls across the northern CWA border, and most precipitation focuses along the elevated cold front in central to southern NE/IA.
Do not expect precipitation with this band, but outside chance of light freezing drizzle if precip would occur.
This morning, by midnight, the remaining freezing drizzle had exited Bryan and Atoka counties and ended farther to the north, with dry conditions expected to persist.
For precipitation, introduced a slight chance for rain tonight as a strong warm front lifts through and interacts with a healthy dose of moisture spilling in from the north. With increasing clouds and warm advection, also raised overnight lows for tonight and afternoon highs across the lower Basin for Wednesday. 850mb temperatures expected to warm near 5C or warmer and with increasing southwest winds at the surface and potential for some sun breaks, thinking we will see another afternoon of mid to upper 50s for locations from Pomeroy to Ritzville and possibly into Moses Lake and Wenatchee where sunbreaks will be more prominent. /sb 00Z TAFs: Warm front lifting into the region will bring a band of light precipitation across SE WA and N ID.
A cold front moving through this afternoon may combine with an upper level wave to initiate some light snow across the James Valley this afternoon and evening.
The cold front is moving through the region, with cold air advection mixing winds expected to help keep temperatures from free-falling like they did last night. A short wave trough off to the northwest will also be tracking southeast and across the eastern Dakotas tonight. An area of low pressure and surface front will slowly track southeastward across southwest South Dakota early in the forecast period.
This is due to the higher albedo from the freshly fallen snow. 00z models continue to show that the short wave trough currently located over Alberta will move southeast across Iowa tonight.
Another 1 to 4 inches of snow is expected with the highest accumulations north of the highway 24 corridor.
248 AM MST Wed Feb 7 2018 An upper trough covers much of the central and eastern US, while a ridge builds over the west coast. The upper trough will shift eastward today, as the upper ridge spreads over the central states. Highs will range from the lower 20s across northwestern SD to around 40 across parts of northeastern WY. Tonight into Thursday, cold high pressure will sink into the eastern Dakotas ahead of an approaching upper wave.
The upper level trough that moved through last night and this morning has exited the region. Now that the trough has shifted eastward, we will now experience more showery-type precipitation. The NAMNEST has been the model of choice today and it's showing that by this evening most showers will have ended except for the highest peaks of the Park Range where some light snow may continue. For tomorrow, a return to what we've seen before the trough moved through. High pressure remains to our west as we see northwesterly flow. The high pressure to our west also stays fairly stationary so the warm temperatures and variable cloudiness also continues.
The highest amount we have received was 5" at Shallow Water in southern Scott county.
A cold front was extending Bowling Green KY to just west of Tupelo MS to the Texas Gulf Coast. A warm front was located just west of Jackson KY to central Pennsylvania. Precipitation is expected to gradually end from west to east by early evening with only the highest elevations in southwest VA and northeast TN continuing to see some light precipitation. Expanded the wind advisory a little farther north into Washington and Russell County where some higher gusts will occur in the higher elevations there as well.
In between is a weak inverted trof across western SD. Temperatures at 2 PM range from the teens across northwestern SD, to the lower 30s across the southern Black Hills. Inverted surface trof will quickly shift southeast this evening as next surge of arctic air slides through the northern Plains. Upper ridge will build over the western states on Wednesday, and warmer air will push into the area ahead of the next system, with highs ranging from around 20 across northwestern SD to near 40 across parts of northeastern WY.
Mostly light rain ahead of a cold front will impact all terminals by this evening. A quasi-stationary front currently resides to the northwest of our area, stretching from the lower Mississippi Valley region across central AL into northern GA. Highs will range from the lower-mid 70s on Wednesday, with mid- upper 60s on Thursday behind the front.
448 AM EDT Thu Mar 15 2018 Periodic snow showers and cold temperatures are expected the rest of the week under upper level low pressure. A cold front will cross the region later this morning and over the course of the afternoon. No significant accumulation is expected outside of the ridges and north of I-80 where a couple inches looks possible through Friday until snow showers diminish with building high pressure.
The main center of the cold upper level trough will stay off the northwest coast through tonight, while a portion of the trough swings inland today, generating scattered snow showers over the mountains and isolated rain showers in the valleys below 4000 feet. As this trough exits, there will be a brief break in the showers this evening, but scattered showers will spread across the area again late tonight through Friday as the main trough begins to push inland. Higher elevations will see from 1 to 3 inches, with 4 to 6 inches possible on the highest peaks by Friday evening.
352 AM CDT Thu Mar 15 2018 A cold front was located early this morning across far northern Missouri and central Illinois. GFS/NAM are both showing a upper low moving into the Central Plains tonight from the rockies. Large scale ascent will increase ahead of this low at the same time low level moisture transport will increase from the Gulf. There may be a brief period of freezing rain or sleet across parts of northeast MO and west central IL early Friday morning due to evaporative cooling with surface temperatures near the freezing mark. Showers will continue Friday afternoon and evening as the low pressure system moves eastward into west central MO by Friday evening.
The low level flow to the east of the boundary should become southwesterly through the day which will aid in scouring out llvl cloudiness and allow for very warm temps to occur (as H85 temps around 19 to 20C mix down).
Tonight, a west to east cold front will sag our way and stall just to our north. By Friday night however, some pre frontal troughing will begin to outrace the main frontal boundary back near the Ms river.
Expect temperatures to be 5-7 degrees warmer tonight as light southerly winds have made a return to the region.
442 AM EDT Thu Mar 15 2018 Mostly dry cold front crosses today. High pressure Friday.
Quiet and mild conditions are expected in the short term period, as an upper level ridge slides across the central part of the country. Generally, the NAM remains an outlier, although closer to expectations when these systems encounter a fetch of dry air from high pressure anchored over the Manitoba/Ontario provinces. Trend in BUFKIT profiles support deep dendritic growth zone above 700mb, with lift in that layer, however outside the period of peak dynamics, we lose saturation within the dendritic growth zone and are probably left with drizzle/freezing drizzle. Not much for high pressure to follow so clouds are expected to linger.
Lows tonight will drop back into the low to mid 50s across the forecast area.
Weak ridging will build over the area this weekend leading to patchy showers.
258 AM CDT Thu Mar 15 2018 A ridge of high pressure will extend through the Northland today with the high moving south tonight into Friday. This high will provide the region with mostly clear skies through Friday.
308 AM CDT Thu Mar 15 2018 High pressure has pushed off to the east allowing onshore flow to return to the area. Today will be a transition day between the cooler, dry conditions we've had to a more cloudy, humid, and wet pattern this weekend. Ridging aloft will begin to break down and shift eastward today, causing the 500mb pattern to become more southwesterly with a series of disturbances rotating across Friday through the weekend.
Water vapor analysis indicates a broad Pacific trough moving over the west coast, amplified ridging centered over the front range of the Rockies, and Northwest flow aloft over the Northern Plains. Clear skies and light winds continue this afternoon into the evening under the influence of upper level ridging. Overnight, a lee trough deepens over eastern Montana with low level southeasterly flow over our west. A combination of moist southeasterly winds and cooler northeast flow out of southern Manitoba will lead to stratus development over much of the central and northwest portions of the state. Thermal profiles suggest mostly a rain snow mix with a possibility for sleet in the southwest where a deeper warm nose and cold surface layer may lead to some hydrometeor melting and refreezing.
355 AM CDT Thu Mar 15 2018 Fire weather will be the main concern in the short term, followed by thunder/severe potential this weekend, as the upper pattern over the CONUS undergoes transition from a blocking regime to more of an active/progressive one. At the surface, low pressure will deepen over eastern CO/western KS later today, and the gradient between this feature and the high pressure over the southeast CONUS will tighten considerably over the region. To the south of the low, a Pacific front will move across eastern OK and western AR by late afternoon. Scattered showers and isolated storms are expected to develop tonight mainly in the warm advection regime ahead of the upper system and north of the surface warm front, which is progged to stretch along or just north of the KS/MO borders.
549 AM EDT Thu Mar 15 2018 A weak cold front will move east today, allowing high pressure to build from the northwest.
312 AM CDT Thu Mar 15 2018 High pressure will continue to shift to the southeast today. Current temperatures are likely at the lowest point of the night as warm air advection should allow temperatures to hold steady or slowly rise through sunrise. Showers ahead of a developing low pressure system over the Plains will spread into Eastern Arkansas and the Missouri Bootheel after midnight. The showers will be ahead of a secondary warm front that will be more of a moisture boundary separating the higher dewpoints. The atmosphere behind the secondary warm front will be unstable thanks to higher dewpoints moving into the area.
447 AM MDT Thu Mar 15 2018 The latest water vapor animation shows a big trough and upper low over the western CONUS/eastern Pacific. Thermal profiles and the SREF guidance point to a good chance of freezing rain over parts of southwestern and south-central SD, although a mix also is possible over other parts of the CWA as well. In addition, have added Tripp County to the watch where substantial freezing rain is possible.
Low level stratus doesn't appear to be an issue with the Western Gulf of Mexico being scoured by our recent cold front. Despite the mostly clear skies tonight, the south breezes will keep overnight temperatures warmer than in recent mornings.
147 AM EDT Thu Mar 15 2018 Aviation High pressure will retreat southeast tonight allowing a cold front to drop through the region. Temperatures on Friday will run cooler than normal, with highs in the 30s. Dry weather is expected Thursday night through Friday as high pressure builds over the area once again. This will pull a cold front through Central and Southern Michigan this evening and early tonight. High pressure will build into the area Thursday night through Friday evening, providing dry conditions.
These winds will not be on the increase until this afternoon when the upper level short wave trough approaches the region. We will continue to see strong winds on Friday though they are not anticipated to be as strong as today with upper level short wave ridging overhead. Strong mid level winds will still be rotating around the back side of the departing short waves trough.
This high pressure will steadily move eastward, and will be over northern Florida tonight and early Friday. By early this weekend, the high will be centered just east of the Florida peninsula, and then settle slowly southward in the western Atlantic. Expect cooler than normal temperatures and no mention of measurable precipitation at least through Friday.
302 AM MST Thu Mar 15 2018 A cold front sweeping through Arizona early today will lead to a much cooler day today while bringing mainly isolated light showers to the higher terrain north and east of Phoenix.
413 AM EDT Thu Mar 15 2018 Areas of light snow will wane in coverage today and become confined mainly the higher elevations by tonight into Friday.
Upper level low pressure over the northeast Pacific will drift south along the coast through Friday and then into northern California. This upper low will weaken and slide east through the weekend but a broad trough of upper level low pressure will remain over the area. Showers associated with the southbound upper level low showing up on current radar just off the coast. with possible exceptions along the coast today and along the southern-most portions of the CWA Friday as the low starts to push inland. Clear skies Thursday night/Friday morning may allow for temperatures to drop close to freezing. As the low digs deeper south and progresses eastward. general upper level trough pattern will remain over the Pac NW and a secondary low forming over western B.
Dry conditions will continue but high temperatures will warm as the high shifts east and flow at the surface transitions to the west southwest.
It looks like a good day for flying with vfr conditions throughout with a building ridge and a southwest breeze for runway selection.
Surface analysis showing a low pressure system in northwestern Colorado this morning. GFS soundings for the northern Panhandle showing a definite possibility of temperature wet bulbing to freezing by 06Z.
Yesterday evening's convection has moved into the higher Sierra early this morning, resulting in scattered snow showers.
The surface cold front has moved through northeast Minnesota and is passing through northwest Wisconsin at this moment. A weak cold front sags down from Ontario tonight, but mostly misses our CWA. There is a chance that clouds could advect in with the cold front, so increased sky cover, but not to an overcast threshold. Thursday should be equally as nice though a tad cooler as high pressure builds keeping clouds to a minimum.
Northwest flow aloft over the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles transitions to southwest overnight as mid-level ridge translates eastward across the forecast area. Also on Thursday, modest increase in low- to mid-level moisture aligned with surface trof expected to lead to a small amount of elevated instability in eastern sections late in the afternoon. Pacific cold front moves east through the Panhandles Thursday afternoon and Thursday night, with further low-level drying. Backdoor cold front makes a run at forecast area on Friday.
313 AM EDT Thu Mar 15 2018 Cold front Thursday. High pressure Friday.
443 AM EDT Thu Mar 15 2018 Areas of light snow will wane in coverage today and become confined mainly the higher elevations by tonight into Friday.
and Friday Satellite imagery early this morning shows clouds were spreading southward over northeast Wisconsin in the wake of a cold front. Lake effect snow showers were slow to start across the far north early this morning, but will leave a mention going for most of today before dry air ahead of a high pressure settles into the area. This cold front will also lead to temperatures being below normal for the rest of the work week.
253 AM MDT Thu Mar 15 2018 The latest water vapor animation shows a big trough and upper low over the western CONUS/eastern Pacific. Thermal profiles and the SREF guidance point to a good chance of freezing rain over parts of southwestern and south-central SD, although a mix also is possible over other parts of the CWA as well. In addition, have added Tripp County to the watch where substantial freezing rain is possible.
An overall broad trough will be the dominant feature over the Northern Rockies for the next several days. A low pressure system dropping down into the northern California will temporarily cause the upper level flow to become southwesterly on Friday.
/issued 302 PM CDT Wed Mar 14 2018/ SHORT TERM (Tonight through Thursday Night): High pressure centered to the north and northeast of the region will continue to shift east, resulting in veering winds tonight, from east to southeast. Light winds will become moderate to breezy southeast to south on Thursday due to the interaction with deepening low pressure over the central high Plains. Temps will continue near normal tonight, in the 50s and 60s, but will trend warmer Thursday and Thursday night as Gulf air with more moisture edges west.
The low level air mass has not gotten cold enough for a lake response just yet, but a secondary cold front with temperatures sinking toward -12C in stronger northerly winds was pushing through Lake Superior. Even further upstream was fairly strong high pressure centered over far nrn Manitoba. The low level air mass will continue to cool this morning as the secondary cold front drives through nrn Michigan.
High pressure will then move in from the W tomorrow, so will see rapid diminishing over the W during the day. Temperatures will as a result of the minimal cloud cover and light winds will steadily moderate, with highs pushing into the lower to perhaps middle 40s away from Lake Superior, but overnight lows will easily radiate into the single digits to lower teens.
Lenning 314 PM CDT The primary period of interest comes Friday night as a low pressure center moves out of the Plains and into the Ohio Valley. Models are not in great agreement concerning the track of the low, but the NAM and ECMWF generally have a similar solution that keeps it farther south than the GFS and also are more progressive than the Canadian model. MaxT values aloft are not overly large, but soundings appear to be somewhat isothermal which would allow for sufficient melting and support freezing rain and sleet mixing in with rain south and snow north.
An upper level trough currently on the western side of the Rockies will track east through the Central Plains Friday. A cold front associated with this trough will reach down to the CWA during the afternoon hours. The boundary itself doesn't look very impressive but it will bring cooler mid level temps.
Elevated to Significant Fire Weather Conditions Will Be Main An upper level trough is moving across the western U. Highs will warm up into the lower and middle 70s.
452 AM EDT Thu Mar 15 2018 Periodic snow showers and cold temperatures are expected the rest of the week under upper level low pressure. A cold front will cross the region later this morning and over the course of the afternoon. No significant accumulation is expected outside of the ridges and north of I-80 where a couple inches looks possible through Friday until snow showers diminish with building high pressure.
Tonight Through Friday High pressure will exit to the southeast tonight/Thursday, with winds becoming south/southwest. Thursday will remain dry, but a cold front will approach from the north Thursday night/Friday.
High pressure will nudge further east into the Wrn Atlc but will maintain a ridge back across the FL peninsula and with Mostly Clear skies with a few high clouds at times, still expect another cooler than normal night and have undercut MOS Guidance again by a few degrees and this will lead to middle/upper 30s over inland areas of NE FL/SE GA with some patchy/areas of frost possible, while areas closer to the coast will remain closer to 40 degrees.
dry conditions and above seasonal temperatures are forecast across the area ahead of an upper level low forecast to swing out of the southwest and into the plains late tomorrow night through Friday. but with slightly cooler temperatures and increasing dew points. expect a chance for some freezing rain to impact portions of the area as surface temperatures drop to near freezing with a warm nose of air aloft. before cooler air working in from the north brings another shot of mixed precip to the area overnight Friday.