Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
255 PM CDT Mon Oct 11 2021 Latest satellite imagery reveals quiet conditions across the region as an upper level low continues to lift northeastward over Iowa. Heading into the overnight period, look for winds to remain out of the north under mostly clear skies, allowing lows to fall into the low to mid 40s with the aid of efficient radiational cooling. Expect much of the same in terms of quiet conditions Tuesday, as an upper level low over the western CONUS begins to lift northeastward toward the Northern Great Plains.
330 PM CDT Mon Oct 11 2021 Vis satellite shows upper low in far ne MO with the main forcing in the form of a squall line in western IL. Tonight: Showers and thunderstorms, some severe in IL, ends later this evening as the upper low tracks to near Milwaukee by midnight. In the wake of the system, northwest winds will bring cooler and drier air into the area. Tuesday: A pleasant day as weak high pressure brings partly to mostly sunny skies.
However, lowered temps a tad for today as clouds and arriving precip will probably keep it cooler than previously thought. TFJ A deep Pacific trough/upper low will bring a more active pattern into the region the next few days. Southerly flow ahead of the trough will bring moisture into the area with increasing clouds today along with chances for rain mainly in the south today. The trough becomes a stacked low tonight and Tuesday as it moves through the Central Rockies.
Conditions will remain quiet tonight as weak high pressure remains over the region. A fairly strong storm system will begin to approach the area on Tuesday, with the low center reaching western Nebraska by late afternoon. The low continues northward Tuesday night, becoming centered over western South Dakota. A large shield of precipitation will accompany this low, with the entire CWA likely to see light to moderate rainfall and windy conditions Tuesday night. High temperatures on Tuesday will be in the mid 50s to the lower 60s, with lows Tuesday night mainly in the 40s.
540 PM CDT Mon Oct 11 2021 Latest satellite imagery reveals quiet conditions across the region as an upper level low continues to lift northeastward over Iowa. Heading into the overnight period, look for winds to remain out of the north under mostly clear skies, allowing lows to fall into the low to mid 40s with the aid of efficient radiational cooling. Expect much of the same in terms of quiet conditions Tuesday, as an upper level low over the western CONUS begins to lift northeastward toward the Northern Great Plains.
835 PM EDT Mon Oct 11 2021 Fair and warm conditions expected the next few days with pressure ridge across the area both at the surface and aloft. A cold front will move through the area this weekend with a chance of showers.
Expect a few clouds overnight as high pressure continues to ridge into the state from the Mid Atlantic, with lows in the upper 60s/lower 70s and another generally pleasant day in store for tomorrow, with isolated showers and a few storms possible interior/south with afternoon highs around 90.
841 PM CDT Mon Oct 11 2021 An upper level cutoff low will continue to track into the Great Lakes this evening as it drags a weakning cold front behind it into the TN Valley tonight. Models continue to show this front falling apart that evening and surface/upper level ridging to quickly build back into the area from the southwest. This should give us another dry couple of days with warmer daytime temperatures reaching the mid to upper 80s. Deep-layer southwesterly flow is predicted to steadily strengthen across the TN Valley early in the period, as a longwave trough tracks eastward from the Rockies into the Central Plains.
Vis satellite shows upper low in far ne MO with the main forcing in the form of a squall line in western IL. Tonight: Showers and thunderstorms, some severe in IL, ends later this evening as the upper low tracks to near Milwaukee by midnight. In the wake of the system, northwest winds will bring cooler and drier air into the area. Tuesday: A pleasant day as weak high pressure brings partly to mostly sunny skies.
A low pressure system brought windy and unseasonably cool conditions today.
Wind will remain elevated 10-15 mph as low pressure in the Midwest results in a tightened pressure gradient through the Ohio Valley. A large scale eastern CONUS ridge will remain a dominant subsidence feature through the period, allowing for warm and moist advection to keep the area above normal, and summer-like. Long range ensembles suggest that low pressure will develop over the plains early weekend, and that, along with jet support and resultant frontogenesis may provide a potent precipitation chance.
749 PM CDT Mon Oct 11 2021 A Pacific cold front is moving into nrn Nebraska this afternoon. The very low freezing levels, less than 10kft, suggest the potential for small hail.
519 PM MDT Mon Oct 11 2021 A mild Monday and Monday night turn into an active Tuesday and Tuesday night as the large low pressure system deepening over the western U.
Overall the current fcst looked pretty good as more dense/bkn high clouds look to exit the region eastward, all while the weak cold front approaches from the west which will foster increasing low clouds toward daybreak. A weak cold front approaches from the west tonight which will favor increased llv moisture advection. CDG Chattanooga Airport, TN 64 81 65 83 64 / 10 20 20 10 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 60 79 62 82 61 / 10 10 10 10 0 Oak Ridge, TN 61 79 62 82 62 / 10 20 10 10 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 56 78 57 80 58 / 0 10 10 10 0.
1008 PM EDT Mon Oct 11 2021 Water vapor imagery highlights a mid-upper level low currently residing just to our east. GOES satellite derived TPW shows a long tongue of very dry air extending from the Gulf Coast to just west of the Lower Keys, which coincides with the western periphery of this mid-upper level low. The combination of weak cyclonic flow, lower heights caused by the mid-upper level low, and a few boundaries propagating from Cuban convection and the mainland will help aid in the development of some shower and thunderstorm activity overnight. Light to gentle breezes will continue to prevail through the middle of the week, then high pressure will settle across the southeast U.
226 PM PDT Mon Oct 11 2021 A low pressure system brought windy and unseasonably cool conditions today.
520 PM MDT Mon Oct 11 2021 Current upper level analysis shows the upper trough currently situated over the west coastal states and southwest flow aloft over our region. To our east, weak split flow as mild ridging sits over the Great Lakes and the low that previously brought our precipitation situated near the Ohio Valley.
Cooler and drier air in place across the region will allow for much lower overnight lows tonight compared to last night, with readings dropping well back into the 50s and some 40s in the typical cool spots. /Issued 216 PM CDT Mon Oct 11 2021/ Mild/breezy conditions this afternoon behind departing low pressure system, currently lifting through central Missouri. Low level moisture will begin to surge back north into the day Tuesday as another strong upper low/trough lifts into the central Plains. Showers with a few embedded thunderstorms will spread back into area during the day Tuesday as stronger isentropic lift develops with a warm front lifting back north. Surface based instability will be dropping off during this time with the main upper dynamics of upper low lifting well north of the area.
609 PM CDT Mon Oct 11 2021 The low pressure system which brought widespread heavy rainfall to much of E KS and W MO this morning continues to make its way across northern MO. Surface convergence and warm frontogenesis across US36 will keep showers going into this evening for areas north of the MO River and east of I-35. On the flip side, cloud cover today has kept temperatures much cooler with many areas struggling to reach the mid 60s.
352 PM MDT Mon Oct 11 2021 A mild Monday and Monday night turn into an active Tuesday and Tuesday night as the large low pressure system deepening over the western U.
604 PM EDT Mon Oct 11 2021 Fair and warm conditions expected the next few days with pressure ridge across the area both at the surface and aloft. A cold front will move through the area this weekend with a chance of showers.
In addition, freezing temperatures are forecast to occur across interior mountain valleys Tuesday morning. Otherwise, light rain will be possible Tuesday night as a weak cold front moves southeast across the region. A vigorous upper-level impulse was advancing through the basal portion of a longer wave trough positioned over the Great Basin and SRN Sierra Nevada Mountains this afternoon. A ridge has amplified in the wake of the trough over the NERN PAC, while a low-level cold front has spread south across much of the WRN CONUS. Freezing temperatures will be probable as radiational cooling becomes maximized with a calm, dry, and clear weather regime. Model guidance shows a weak cold front advancing southeast across the region during Tuesday evening.
724 PM EDT Mon Oct 11 2021 A weakening cold front will move east into the region tonight.
By Tuesday, the low pressure system responsible for the snow will move out of the area and snow will diminish and end from west to east, though snow may stick around a little longer for central and fergus county.
Overall, VFR conds should prevail, however expecting valley FG to develop between 09/13z, affecting KHOT and KADF with the highest confidence.
346 AM CDT Tue Oct 12 2021 An area of low pressure that in part helped produce strong and severe weather over the south central Great Plains yesterday, has weakened as it now moves over eastern Wisconsin. A frontal boundary trailing south of this low was slowly approaching the Tennessee Valley. The cold front will precede slowly to the east, moving across our western areas during the morning to early afternoon. Despite the front, clouds, and rain chances today, high temperature should warm into the lower 80s.
The deeper moisture will be a bit slow to return north today, but still expect dewpoints in the low/mid 60s later this afternoon.
Overall the current fcst looked pretty good as more dense/bkn high clouds look to exit the region eastward, all while the weak cold front approaches from the west which will foster increasing low clouds toward daybreak. Chattanooga Airport, TN 81 65 83 64 84 / 20 10 10 0 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 79 62 82 61 83 / 10 10 10 0 10 Oak Ridge, TN 79 62 82 62 82 / 20 10 10 0 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 78 57 80 58 82 / 10 0 10 0 10.
136 AM EDT Tue Oct 12 2021 A weakening cold front will move east into the region tonight.
355 AM CDT Tue Oct 12 2021 Weak high pressure will result in dry weather and lower humidity today. Later tonight, low trop WAA sets back up in response to deep low pressure over the northern Plains creating broad scale southerly flow from the Gulf up across the MS Valley region.
Mid evening surface analysis showed the stalling cold front near a Grenada to Vicksburg to Fort Necessity, Louisiana line. The cold front should only drift a little farther tonight before stalling. 5+ precipitable water and rich boundary layer moisture with dewpoints in the lower 70s. Going through Tuesday we'll see the mid level ridge rebuild over the forecast area. Otherwise, expect the warmer than normal temperatures to continue.
Meanwhile, aloft an upper level low that cut-off from the main flow, is meandering south from the Bahamas and across central Cuba. Its position puts on the west side or the dry side of the low.
304 AM EDT Tue Oct 12 2021 A cold front will wrap east/northeast through the area this morning around low pressure tracking from the western to northern Great Lakes. A few additional showers may linger into afternoon over far northern portions of the forecast area as wraparound moisture around the base of the low pressure brushes the region. Temperatures will be cooler than yesterday in the wake of this cold front, but still rather mild for mid October with highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s.
Fortunately, discrete/quasi-discrete convective modes were brief as deepening/amplifying trough led to shear vectors increasingly parallel to the initiating boundary. Post frontal dry northerly flow has resulted in cooler conditions and temperatures in the 70s. Meanwhile, back to the west, a deepening trough is modeled to move eastward with both timing and position being consistent with reasonably tight clustering among the ensemble members. A response to this trough will be an enhancement of southerly flow and return of deeper moisture now relegated to south Texas.
Cooler and drier air in place across the region will allow for much lower overnight lows tonight compared to last night, with readings dropping well back into the 50s and some 40s in the typical cool spots.
Discussion: The dissipating cold front to our west will continue to move east toward our area and wash out, with no change of air mass for our area. The upper ridge will re-establish itself over the region by tonight, with a precip free night across the area.
Impressive upper level trough currently pivoting through the Desert Southwest will continue to induce lee cyclogenesis with an increase in winds by the afternoon hours. One potential caveat to this is across a few of our SW MN counties where some guidance suggest the lower stratus deck currently across eastern MN may spill far enough east to limit temperature in those areas. Main trough begins to lift into the Central US by the evening hours with strong Div Q/divergence aloft spreading across the region.
1156 PM CDT Mon Oct 11 2021 A Pacific cold front is moving into nrn Nebraska this afternoon. The very low freezing levels, less than 10kft, suggest the potential for small hail.
1146 PM CDT Mon Oct 11 2021 The low pressure system which brought widespread heavy rainfall to much of E KS and W MO this morning continues to make its way across northern MO. Surface convergence and warm frontogenesis across US36 will keep showers going into this evening for areas north of the MO River and east of I-35. On the flip side, cloud cover today has kept temperatures much cooler with many areas struggling to reach the mid 60s.
333 AM CDT Tue Oct 12 2021 Showers continue to dissipate overnight as the upper trough continues moving to the northeast.
402 AM EDT Tue Oct 12 2021 Generally dry cold front will push east of the region today, then weak high pressure will build in through mid-week.
(Today and tonight) A mid-level trough will continue to move towards the Southern Plains today. The timing and movement of the boundary will be juxtaposed with the greatest ascent as the aforementioned trough approaching the Rocky Mountains.
The winds will accompany a dry but cold air mass which will push wind chills below freezing early Tuesday morning. The precipitation and clouds will begin to break early Tuesday morning allowing for temperatures to drop at or below freezing around sunrise.
However, most areas will remain dry due to upper ridging building back over the region. For most it will be a pleasant day with highs in the low 80s and lower humidity.
154 AM EDT Tue Oct 12 2021 Fair and warm conditions expected the next few days with pressure ridge across the area both at the surface and aloft. A cold front will move through the area this weekend with a chance of showers.
An upper level cutoff low will continue to track into the Great Lakes this evening as it drags a weakening cold front behind it into the TN Valley tonight. Models continue to show this front falling apart that evening and surface/upper level ridging to quickly build back into the area from the southwest. This should give us another dry couple of days with warmer daytime temperatures reaching the mid to upper 80s. Deep-layer southwesterly flow is predicted to steadily strengthen across the TN Valley early in the period, as a longwave trough tracks eastward from the Rockies into the Central Plains.
249 AM MDT Tue Oct 12 2021 Stacked surface and upper low will be over Colorado today.
A potent upper low over the 4 corners region Tuesday morning will swing northeast into the Central Plains Tuesday night. For tonight,lows will be mainly in the lower 60s, especially over southern sections which will see increasing moisture and clouds.
1041 PM CDT Mon Oct 11 2021 Latest satellite imagery reveals quiet conditions across the region as an upper level low continues to lift northeastward over Iowa. Heading into the overnight period, look for winds to remain out of the north under mostly clear skies, allowing lows to fall into the low to mid 40s with the aid of efficient radiational cooling. Expect much of the same in terms of quiet conditions Tuesday, as an upper level low over the western CONUS begins to lift northeastward toward the Northern Great Plains.
1024 PM MDT Mon Oct 11 2021 Current upper level analysis shows the upper trough currently situated over the west coastal states and southwest flow aloft over our region. To our east, weak split flow as mild ridging sits over the Great Lakes and the low that previously brought our precipitation situated near the Ohio Valley.
1046 AM EDT Tue Oct 12 2021 High pressure centered over New England this morning will slide east while weakening low pressure decaying cold front scoots by to our north during the midweek period. A stronger high pressure system will build over the Appalachians late this week accompanied by above normal daytime temperatures and mainly dry conditions.
The 12Z morning sounding is showing a little bit more moisture than 24 hours ago, especially in the lower levels, but still on the low side with a PWAT of 1. Rain and storm chances will remain on the low side making for a very pleasant week to be on the gulf coast waters.
The low pressure system that recently brought us cooler weather has dropped south into northern Arizona tonight and will continue moving eastward across the high desert today. But short waves move fast, and the short wave ridge will quickly be replaced by a short wave trough moving through late Tuesday night and Wednesday. Zonal flow means the winds aloft are mainly west to east across the region without either a ridge or a trough.
continue to expect an upper level low across the southwest to intensify as it shifts northeast. and for low pressure to correspondingly deepen on the lee side of the Rockies. As this low shifts east. the main show will come with the primary cold front this evening and through the overnight hours. Given how fast the models are propagating the low northeast by early Wednesday morning. with cooler air filtering in behind this system.
A warming trend after today through the weekend is expected due to high pressure moving over the area. Strong winds occurred through many portions of the forecast area yesterday due to a stout low pressure system that provided us with a very strong pressure gradient. Afternoon highs begin to rebound across the region tomorrow as high pressure builds in the Eastern Pacific.
Temperatures will also plunge to well below normal with freezing temperatures possible in colder valleys east and south of Tucson early Wednesday morning.
1019 AM EDT Tue Oct 12 2021 Generally dry cold front will push east of the region today, then weak high pressure will build in through mid-week.
It will also remain breezy as cooler air arrives. A cold front is still making its way across the forecast area from west to east this morning, accompanied by weakening rain showers. Showers will continue to diminish today, but with the low moving slowly northeastward over Lake Michigan, wrap around moisture will facilitate significant cloud cover and a few lingering showers, especially to the north. Cooler air can also be expected, but temperatures will still be above normal with highs in the upper 60s to low 70s. Brief high pressure ridging will be over the region going into Wednesday, and temperatures will warm into the mid 70s again, with a warm front bringing a low chance for showers Wednesday evening.
420 AM CDT Tue Oct 12 2021 Overnight surface analysis showed an area of low pressure over southeast WI. A cold front extended southward from the low across the Midwest, Mid South, and then southwestward across central and southwestern LA. This will be about as close the front will make it to our CWA as southerly return flow around the high that is anchored over the northern Gulf and Southeast CONUS will cause the boundary to lift northward as a warm front today and Wednesday. The return flow will yield a gradual increase in boundary-layer moisture, but a strong subsidence inversion under the mid-level ridge will serve as a cap to deeper convection over the next few days.
A stronger upper trough lifting north across the Plains will produce low level warm advection Wednesday, especially in the afternoon when a 50 knot 850 mb jet will be moving into Southwest Wisconsin.
Deep upper level low over the Four Corners region continues to pump moisture into southern portions of Montana this morning. Meanwhile, as the upper low progresses to the northeast, the focus for snowfall shifts into eastern Montana with isolated/scattered showers lingering into this evening across eastern portions of central Montana. Broad upper level troughing remains across the western USA through the remainder of the week but the bulk of energy and precipitation strengthens into an impressively strong storm across eastern Montana and the Dakotas for Wednesday/Wednesday night.
Overnight lows will be bitter cold in the high elevation basins, and even Snake River plain lows dropping into the teens.
Impressive upper level trough currently pivoting through the Desert Southwest will continue to induce lee cyclogenesis with an increase in winds by the afternoon hours. One potential caveat to this is across a few of our SW MN counties where some guidance suggest the lower stratus deck currently across eastern MN may spill far enough east to limit temperature in those areas. Main trough begins to lift into the Central US by the evening hours with strong Div Q/divergence aloft spreading across the region. Not much of consequence beyond Wednesday as secondary upper level troughing builds in for the second half of the work week.
For this morning and afternoon will show the highest PoPs generally across our southeastern counties as the aforementioned upper level upper moves out of Mexico and into central Texas.
The narrow corridor of CAPE lines up with a narrow plume of moisture that streams into portions of southwest Nebraska into the southern Sandhills, with sfc dewpoints in the low 50s. Some of the models did back off the winds a bit, however trended with the higher models as they seem more likely the favorable solution given the proximity of the low pressure system.
Showers continue to dissipate overnight as the upper trough continues moving to the northeast.
451 AM CDT Tue Oct 12 2021 (Today and tonight) A mid-level trough will continue to move towards the Southern Plains today. The timing and movement of the boundary will be juxtaposed with the greatest ascent as the aforementioned trough approaching the Rocky Mountains.
Key West is positioned southwest of the trough axis and to the northeast of the ridge over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. The ridge and trough will cause winds to converge over the local area and induce weak boundaries that will cause showers and possibly brief thunderstorms today. Light to gentle breezes will prevail through late tonight, followed by freshening breezes Wednesday and Wednesday night as high pressure builds back into the southeastern United States.
A north- to-south oriented cold front over W Tennessee will continue to meander eastward as it washes out. Discussion: The dissipating cold front to our west will continue to move east toward our area and wash out, with no change of air mass for our area. The upper ridge will re-establish itself over the region by tonight, with a precip free night across the area.
922 AM CDT Tue Oct 12 2021 Morning observations show temperatures in the upper 60s/lower 70s across the area with a dense mid-level stratus deck present ahead of a cold front entering NW AL.
648 AM EDT Tue Oct 12 2021 Generally dry cold front will push east of the region today, then weak high pressure will build in through mid-week.