Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
A strong ridge of high pressure over Arizona will bring hot temperatures through this weekend. The hottest temperatures yet this season are in store, with Excessive Heat Warnings in effect for the lower elevations. Dry conditions are expected for much of the area, though high-based showers and thunderstorms are possible over the high terrain though Saturday. Afternoon high-based showers and thunderstorms expected to develop along the high terrain of the White Mountains and Mogollon Rim today. Outside of the shower activity, very warm to hot temperatures are expected to continue as well, with Excessive Heat Warnings in effect for much of the lower elevations.
427 AM MDT Fri Jun 10 2022 Ridging will be the dominant pattern through this weekend with mostly clear skies and warm to hot temps across the area. Scattered high clouds will pass by as they come over the ridge axis down into WY.
651 AM EDT Fri Jun 10 2022 High pressure will be in place today, providing warm but mainly dry conditions.
Temperatures will top out in the low to mid 70s with some 80s possible over northeast Mississippi. Weak high pressure over the Ohio Valley has nudged into the Mid-South. Highs will be a little cooler today with cloud cover and precip. The main upper trough over the OH Valley will start pushing east.
Warm but breezy upper ridge in place over East Idaho. Satellite imagery shows upper clouds streaming across forecast area, with main band of moisture associated with incoming trough angled over panhandle. Trough slowly sags into East Idaho tonight through Saturday, with precipitation slowly sagging southeast into the forecast area.
A MCS will dive well west of the area into the lower Mississppi valley. Surface ridging will keep winds generally less than 10kts through the forecast period.
The trough across the region in combination with weak diurnally derived instability developed some convection this afternoon as expected.
244 PM EDT Fri Jun 10 2022 A weak area of low pressure will track south of the area tonight through Saturday.
137 PM EDT Fri Jun 10 2022 High pressure ridging across the Keys and a pre-frontal trough settling into north FL are keeping SW/W flow in place across the area along with a decent coverage of showers and a few thunderstorms so far today. The boundary and upper trough stall across the area, with the warm and moist environment being enhanced by the upper energy in place and keeping the higher rain chances in place through the weekend.
Temperatures will a little warmer on Saturday as the upper ridge begins to build back over the area from the west.
Hi-res forecast models are depicting this wave as miniature cyclone complex including dynamic warm and cold frontal boundaries. While these storms appear to be separated from the deepest axes of moisture and instability, there remains the potential for some strong to severe storms, especially near the convergence of the warm and cold fronts.
The second area is confined to the high elevations of the Davis Mtns to the north of Marfa where some of the hi-res guidance have a few cells popping thanks to the heat/orographic elements working in tandem today. The main story will be the heat where temperatures today are touching the U90s to 100s areawide thanks to an extending thermal ridge axis over the far western TX zones. Tomorrow will see the presence of the thermal ridge even more as the ridge axis will bisect the Pecos river valley and adjacent high terrain out west. The Heat Advisory in effect out west today is still in effect as highs in the higher elevations will approach the lower ranges of Advisory criteria in the next hour or two.
(This afternoon through Saturday Night) Today's wx action had split around our region with showers and storms across the Ohio Valley and a big MCS over the Lower Ms Valley. Saturday will be warmer and more humid than today, but near normal for June 11th.
Therefore, temperatures will reach the upper 70s for most inland locations while coastal locations will only cool down to the lower 80s.
Upper troughing will maintain below average temperature, supporting an overall pleasant afternoon for much of the area.
Overnight, a mid level trough will lead to another round of showers into Saturday morning.
Additional showers and thunderstorms are possible Saturday afternoon and into the evening hours as a cold frontal boundary passes through the region.
247 PM CDT Fri Jun 10 2022 Upper level 592 dam high pressure across NM/AZ/CI/SO will expand eastward, elongating slightly, over the next twenty-four hours.
Given the clouds, temperatures are forecast to climb into the mid 70 to low 80s despite the warm front surge north.
A strong ridge of high pressure over Arizona will bring hot temperatures through this weekend. The hottest temperatures yet this season are in store, with Excessive Heat Warnings in effect for the lower elevations. Dry conditions are expected for much of the area, though high-based showers and thunderstorms are possible over the high terrain though Saturday. An uptick in mid level moisture into northern Arizona will result in isolated to scattered shower/thunderstorm development over the high terrain of central Arizona this afternoon. Afternoon high-based showers and thunderstorms expected to develop along the high terrain of the White Mountains and Mogollon Rim today. Outside of the shower activity, very warm to hot temperatures are expected to continue as well, with Excessive Heat Warnings in effect for much of the lower elevations.
1110 AM MDT Fri Jun 10 2022 As an upper ridge builds over the western CONUS, high clouds are streaming into the northern plains through northwest flow. The upper ridge will keep our weather warm and dry through Saturday afternoon.
Aloft, midlevel ridging will build toward the Great Plains through the weekend allowing strong low-level warm air advection to spread over the area.
SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday Night): High pressure overhead will continue to lead to warm and dry conditions across Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley through the short term period.
It will be a milder night in a weak southerly low level flow, and looking at low temperatures in the lower 60s. With a more sun expected during the day on Saturday it will be a warmer day with highs into the mid to upper 80s.
1229 PM CDT Fri Jun 10 2022 Most of the wx action today is splitting around our region with showers and storms across the Ohio Valley and a big MCS moving over the Lower Ms Valley.
854 AM PDT Fri Jun 10 2022 High pressure aloft will continue the hot weather for inland areas into the weekend while the marine layer keeps coastal areas cooler with night and morning low clouds and fog.
Saturday morning into mid-day, zonal flow and/or weak ridging seems to take over and bring quiet/calm conditions to our region.
Saturday will mark the beginning of a significant warmup across the region as upper level ridging builds across the Plains.
This will be very isolated in nature due to the dry air in place in the low levels of the atmosphere over even those areas. Do believe dewpoints will slowly climb near and west of the I-65 corridor tonight into the lower to mid 60s.
The nightly MCS pattern has been turned off as the mid level ridge starts to nose northward through tomorrow. Still, it looked prudent to go with the western half in the low 100's and the eastern half in the upper 90s.
This area of rain is associated with the left exit region of a 100kts jet at 300mb and associated positive tilted trough. For Saturday, northwest flow aloft with surface ridging.
1135 AM CDT Fri Jun 10 2022 Most of the wx action today is splitting around our region with showers and storms across the Ohio Valley and a big MCS moving over the Lower Ms Valley.
123 PM PDT Fri Jun 10 2022 High pressure aloft will continue the hot weather for inland areas into the weekend while the marine layer keeps coastal areas cooler with night and morning low clouds and fog.
The trough will be essentially wash out as southeast/south winds overtake the area overnight and start to bring more low level moisture by Saturday. That could keep temperatures down a touch due to clouds in eastern sections of the forecast area for a time, but most recent trends suggest Saturday afternoon will end up warmer than previously forecast. Saturday brings another small risk for isolated thunderstorms, this time across the northern areas, again as a weak wave cuts through the developing ridge.
156 PM EDT Fri Jun 10 2022 High pressure will be in place today, providing warm but mainly dry conditions.
Main upper level trough axis will track eastward late tonight to portions of the eastern Lake Erie basin and border region of Ontario/Quebec. Geopotential height rises off of this trough exit will allow surface ridging across all of Southeast Michigan through much of the day on Saturday. However, very fast eastward progression of the next Pacific wave packet will result in downstream forcing and a rapidly northward advancing warm front.
This wave will continue its dive southeastward into the area through the upper level flow pattern with ridging building off to the west.
1137 AM EDT Fri Jun 10 2022 High pressure will be in place today, providing warm but mainly dry conditions.
Saturday looks nice with highs in the mid to upper 80s with heat index values in the lower 90s.
---BMickelson Previous discussion: Main update was to increase winds slightly for Friday as cold front moves in.
However, a few large hail reports are possible in the southern half of the area where the higher instability resides.
148 PM MDT Fri Jun 10 2022 Satellite imagery shows flat ridging over the area with scattered to broken mid & high clouds associated with a moist Pacific flow. There is a region of frontogenesis in western MT and as this tracks eastward in the wake of departing trof to our north, shower chances will increase over our cwa initially in our west in the late afternoon then spreading across lower elevations tonight.
The chance for rain increases late this evening for areas around and south of I-70 with a passing trough.
133 PM PDT Fri Jun 10 2022 Hot but a bit cooler Saturday.
That said, there is a cold front pushing south through Wisconsin and towards our area with surface based CAPE values near 1,500 j/kg over Southern Wisconsin.
148 PM MDT Fri Jun 10 2022 Current upper level analysis shows a ridge building over the western US with northwest flow over the CWA. Ridging progresses through the region this weekend as an upper level trough deepens to the west.
we are still nestled in broad upper-level troughing, so the region will likely experience the last temperate day until the sweltering heat wave passes. Highs tomorrow are expected to be in the low-mid 80s as adequate cloud cover will prevent some radiation from heating the surface.
The island chain is rain-free so far, although convection is firing in the lee of the Lower Keys, across South Florida, and also across western Cuba.
110 PM EDT Fri Jun 10 2022 High pressure will be in place today, providing warm but mainly dry conditions.
Currently, the upper level pattern remains in flux with a deep upper low spinning over the Hudson Bay region with a vort lobe extending through the Great Lakes into the southern MS Valley region. Northwest flow is largely in place over the region with a ridge beginning to build into the southern Rockies and Four Corners region. Over the northern Rockies region is a baroclinic system associated with a low to mid level trough moving across that region. With clearing into the afternoon and the northern Rockies frontal system working into Nebraska by late afternoon, storms could begin to form in an area along the surface boundary within the periphery of a strong EML emanating off the high terrain of the southern Rockies.
240 PM CDT Fri Jun 10 2022 With the passage of the main storm complex across the Lower Mississippi River Valley, we are left with primarily remnant showers drifting across our northeast, within the broader long wave trof. Highs push warmer, into the mid and upper 80s.
This, combined with surging lower level thermal ridge, high temperatures on Saturday are expected to be 5 to 10 degrees warmer/hotter than those this afternoon.
Thunderstorms developed on the bayside of the lower and middle Keys mid-afternoon with one impacting the Key West area in the last hour or two.
Satellite and radar loops show some small convective cells developing just west of Ransom and Sargent counties along a weak vort coming over the top of the ridge. Overnight lows will be on the higher side in the 50s to low 60s thanks to cloud cover and higher dew points. Ridging ahead of the sharp western trough will allow for an above average temp regime on Sun, with highs from the upper 70s to the mid 80s. The upper trough axis should approach and pass the forecast area later Tue/night, providing another forcing mechanism for more thunder, followed by more zonal flow and less warm temps for Wed. Upper ridging will follow, providing subsidence and more drying, leading to warmer conditions Thu and certainly Fri.
405 PM MDT Fri Jun 10 2022 Current upper level analysis shows a ridge building over the western US with northwest flow over the CWA. Ridging progresses through the region this weekend as an upper level trough deepens to the west.
With the passage of the main storm complex across the Lower Mississippi River Valley, we are left with primarily remnant showers drifting across our northeast, within the broader long wave trof. Highs push warmer, into the mid and upper 80s.
Concur with deterministic output from the NAM/GFS/ECMWF that the CWA will remain under the influence of an upper level ridge during the period.
352 PM MDT Fri Jun 10 2022 A hot & dry day across southeast Wyo and the western Neb Panhandle as upper-level ridging continues to build over the southwestern US this afternoon. Highs are expected to trend even warmer for Saturday as 700 hpa temperatures climb to near +18 C, in the upper 99th percentile compared to area climatology.
Due to the rainy and cloudy conditions expected, lowered high temperatures by a few degrees than the previous forecast with readings in the middle to upper 60s across the Northwoods and along the lakeshore, and the low 70s in central and east-central WI. Saturday Night Through Friday Shower activity should diminish Saturday night as the cold front moves south and drier air arrives from the north.
Rain should gradually taper off after dawn in the ridges of WV as the trough axis skirts into southcentral PA/Maryland and mid and upper-level dry air advances into western PA from the west.
The thicker cirrus from the day will think out leaving partly cloudy skies and lows in the lower to middle 60s. (This afternoon through Saturday Night) Today's wx action had split around our region with showers and storms across the Ohio Valley and a big MCS over the Lower Ms Valley. Saturday will be warmer and more humid than today, but near normal for June 11th.
/Updated at 0743 PM CDT Fri Jun 10 2022/ A short wave trough was moving through the west northwest flow aloft early this evening.
/issued 247 PM CDT Fri Jun 10 2022/ Upper level 592 dam high pressure across NM/AZ/CI/SO will expand eastward, elongating slightly, over the next twenty-four hours.
528 PM MDT Fri Jun 10 2022 A hot & dry day across southeast Wyo and the western Neb Panhandle as upper-level ridging continues to build over the southwestern US this afternoon. Highs are expected to trend even warmer for Saturday as 700 hpa temperatures climb to near +18 C, in the upper 99th percentile compared to area climatology.
A strong ridge of high pressure over Arizona will bring hot temperatures through this weekend. The hottest temperatures yet this season are in store, with Excessive Heat Warnings in effect for the lower elevations. Dry conditions are expected for much of the area, though high-based showers and thunderstorms are possible over the high terrain though Saturday. Warm high pressure remains situated across the Desert Southwest today and will continue to bring near-record heat into the weekend. An inverted trough passing through northern Mexico underneath the ridge has helped to spread some mid level moisture as far north as the Mogollon rim area this afternoon. Daytime temperatures will also peak under the height of the high pressure ridge today and tomorrow.
612 PM CDT Fri Jun 10 2022 (This afternoon through Saturday Night) Today's wx action had split around our region with showers and storms across the Ohio Valley and a big MCS over the Lower Ms Valley. Saturday will be warmer and more humid than today, but near normal for June 11th.
Muggy overnight with lows in the lower/mid 70s followed by highs in the mid/upper 80s on Saturday. High pressure ridging across the Keys and a pre-frontal trough settling into north FL are keeping SW/W flow in place across the area along with a decent coverage of showers and a few thunderstorms so far today. The boundary and upper trough stall across the area, with the warm and moist environment being enhanced by the upper energy in place and keeping the higher rain chances in place through the weekend.
Temperatures fall into the low to mid 60s tonight with some locations potentially seeing the upper 50s.
The airmass is warmer but the late day clouds will likely keep Denver below 100 degrees.
A small area of high pressure was located over the Northland this afternoon with a stationary boundary sitting across southern Minnesota into Central Wisconsin. This boundary extends northwestward across North Dakota to an area of low pressure in southwestern Saskatchewan.
/issued 254 PM CDT Fri Jun 10 2022/ SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday Night): High pressure overhead will continue to lead to warm and dry conditions across Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley through the short term period.
An upstream upper level trof moves abundant moisture into the area.
930 PM EDT Fri Jun 10 2022 A weak area of low pressure will track south of the area tonight through Saturday.
The higher threat lies further west and this is supported by the CAMs.
941 PM MDT Fri Jun 10 2022 Current upper level analysis shows a ridge building over the western US with northwest flow over the CWA. Ridging progresses through the region this weekend as an upper level trough deepens to the west.
By 15Z, rain should gradually taper off in the Laurel Highlands as the trough axis skirts into south central PA/Maryland and mid and upper- level dry air advances into western PA from the west.
(Today and tonight) Pattern transition continues today as northwest flow is replaced by building heights and upper ridging. Expect highs in the low to mid 100s out west with mid to upper 90s elsewhere.
357 AM CDT Sat Jun 11 2022 Latest UA analysis and WV imagery shows ridging oriented over NM/AZ and N Mexico, with a trough over the eastern Great Lakes extending southward toward the FL Panhandle.
The bulk of the day over southeast Michigan should be dry once again, with temperatures rising into the upper 70s and making a run toward 80 degrees with the low level southwest flow and 850 mb temps of 12-13 C.
/Updated at 743 PM CDT Fri Jun 10 2022/ A short wave trough was moving through the west northwest flow aloft early this evening.
Warmer temperatures by a few degrees today. Warmer again tonight as dew points rise several degrees. However some lingering moisture should be enough with daytime heating to trigger some showers and a possible thunderstorms across the northeast Tennessee mountains, southwest Virginia and the higher elevations of the Smokies. Highs today will be 3 to 5 degrees warmer than Friday. Short range models show only limited shower activity late this afternoon and early evening over the higher elevations of the east Tennessee mountains. Tonight upper troughing shifts eastward and the beginning of ridging aloft will push in from the western Tennessee Valley. Lows will only drop to the lower 60s across southwest Virginia to the mid and upper 60s central and southeast part of the eastern Tennessee Valley.
435 AM EDT Sat Jun 11 2022 A warm front will lift across the region this weekend. High pressure is expected to build into the region and will likely linger through the rest of the work week. Larger scale troughing remains in place across the eastern CONUS with a respectably strong upper jet axis diving down into the SE states.
Otherwise, quiet and near seasonal wx conditions prevail, as a NW flow regime remains in place over much of the region, while a weak area of high pressure remains located just east of the area.
1105 PM MDT Fri Jun 10 2022 A hot & dry day across southeast Wyo and the western Neb Panhandle as upper-level ridging continues to build over the southwestern US this afternoon. Highs are expected to trend even warmer for Saturday as 700 hpa temperatures climb to near +18 C, in the upper 99th percentile compared to area climatology.
1151 PM EDT Fri Jun 10 2022 A dry low level environment ensures VFR conditions with clear skies across the lowest 5000 ft through Saturday. Main upper level trough axis will track eastward late tonight to portions of the eastern Lake Erie basin and border region of Ontario/Quebec. Geopotential height rises off of this trough exit will allow surface ridging across all of Southeast Michigan through much of the day on Saturday. However, very fast eastward progression of the next Pacific wave packet will result in downstream forcing and a rapidly northward advancing warm front.
A strong ridge of high pressure over Arizona will bring hot temperatures through this weekend. The hottest temperatures yet this season are in store, with Excessive Heat Warnings in effect for the lower elevations. Dry conditions are expected for much of the area, though high-based showers and thunderstorms are possible over the high terrain though Saturday. Besides for the thunder activity, the hot daytime temperatures will continue through the weekend with Excessive Heat Warnings remaining in effect for the Grand Canyon and the lower valleys of Yavapai and Gila counties.
847 PM PDT Fri Jun 10 2022 High pressure aloft will continue the hot weather for inland areas into the weekend while the marine layer keeps coastal areas cooler with night and morning low clouds and fog.
338 AM EDT Sat Jun 11 2022 A weak trough of low pressure will impact the region today bringing a chance for showers and thunderstorms primarily to the eastern half of the forecast area.
A warm front extends east-southeast from the low across parts of southeast ND/northeast SD/west-central MN. A cold front stretches west from the low across the ND/SD border back into eastern MT. Showers and a couple of thunderstorms remain ongoing across parts of northeast/east-central SD into western MN invof that warm front. Also, more showers with embedded thunder exists near the cold front as an upper jet streak noses into the western Dakotas. We should see a mainly quiet daytime period as the aforementioned cold front swings through the CWA and winds become west to northwest this morning into the early afternoon. Low to mid level warm advection will continue as a mid-lvl ridge builds across the Plains. A weak disturbance is anticipated to round the top of the ridge by late in the day across parts of the northern High Plains.
Zonal flow still prevailing over the northwest CONUS with a broad trough over the eastern portion of the country.
Muggy overnight with lows in the lower/mid 70s followed by highs in the mid/upper 80s on Saturday.
Water vapor imagery shows us in northwest flow aloft with ridging just off to the west. Chose to keep the warmer highs today in accordance with guidance and the previous forecast, though this could be a bit of a struggle due to the high dew points in the upper 60s and lower 70s today. Most of the area will stay dry and confidence in seeing anything at all is not the highest.
Water vapor satellite imagery and RAP upper air analysis at 06Z Saturday show an upper level ridge centered over the Desert Southwest, and an upper level trough over the eastern CONUS.