Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Taking a look at the wider picture, water vapor shows a large upper low swirling off the coast of Louisiana. High res models show a few isolated showers possible this afternoon, but the bulk of the precipitation should hold off until late tonight and into Saturday morning as a lobe of energy swings around the east side of the low.
A warming trend begins tomorrow as this trough begins to move out and the West Coast ridge begins to build back in.
233 PM CDT Fri Sep 9 2022 Key Points: - Cold front arrives tonight.
(This evening through Saturday) An upper level low remains centered over the north central gulf coast this afternoon while a weak cold front is stalled over the northern gulf. Eastward and closer to the upper low PWATs are running around the 75th percentile for the date. With the higher moisture content, scattered showers and storms have begun to develop over the Atchafalaya Basin and LA capitol region. The upper low will very slowly drift west into Saturday pulling the higher moisture values west with it. SE TX will keep the lower pop values with scattered to numerous afternoon storms possible toward the Atchafalaya.
As the cold front approaches from the north that evening, thunderstorm chances begin to increase across the far northern Permian Basin and southeast New Mexico. Aided by a combination of ongoing convection and a seasonally strong surface pressure gradient, strong northerly winds push a cold front quickly through the region Saturday night. The strong barrier jet that appears likely along the immediate lee of the higher terrain is expected to aide in northerly high winds through Guadalupe Pass where a High Wind Watch is in effect. Cooler temperatures will begin to fill in behind the front, especially across areas further north across the area.
1246 PM CDT Fri Sep 9 2022 Current satellite water vapor imagery shows a healthy upper level trough axis moving slowly eastward across Montana/Wyoming early this morning. Scattered elevated showers/storms were occurring along and north of the surface cold front over western Nebraska/South Dakota. Cooler temperatures in the 50s and 60s were behind the cold front. The cold front will shift southward into central Kansas later this afternoon, and bring scattered showers/storms to the area similar to what is now occurring north of Kansas for late tonight through Saturday night. Another day of hot temperatures will be in store for the area today, however noticeably cooler air will spread southward across Kansas for the weekend in the wake of the cold front.
Gusty winds in some of the higher elevations and foothills of the E TN mountains tonight into early Saturday. Discussion: In the upper levels, a closed low over the lower Mississippi Valley will slowly drift northwest and weaken. In addition, the low level flow will be downsloping into the northern/central valley areas which will also help to keep precip amounts lower in those areas.
141 PM MDT Fri Sep 9 2022 Upper trough is situated over the northern Rockies, with coupled jet streaks over our CWA.
1229 PM CDT Fri Sep 9 2022 (Today and tonight) Friday will be another relatively quiet day, with a nearly stationary upper level cyclone positioned over the Gulf Coast, and relatively weak flow aloft through the region. Overnight Friday night into Saturday, an upper level trough will begin to dig through the Central Plains. With this upper level trough, an associated surface cold front will begin to enter far northwestern Oklahoma late Friday night. Behind the cold front, there will be strong northerly winds and cooler temperatures, as well as increasing precipitation chances. Behind the cold front, lows will be primarily in the mid to low 60s, with 50s beginning to gradually move in behind the cold front.
200 PM EDT Fri Sep 9 2022 High pressure over the northeast United States and wedged down the east side of the Appalachians tonight will move off the East coast by late Saturday. Deep moisture around the high, will lift over a stalled front along the Gulf Coast and into the Mid Atlantic region resulting in widespread moderate to heavy rain for the weekend.
247 PM CDT Fri Sep 9 2022 High pressure was moving off to the east today, but still providing much of the area with blue skies and southwest winds. A cold front was stretched from SE NE into northern WI. Tonight, dry conditions will continue as the cold front slowly moves into the NW CWA. Saturday, the cold front will be moving through the area with rain with some isolated rumbles of thunder behind it.
Given the resident dry airmass overhead and low level return flow, this equates to plenty of sunshine and seasonably warm temperatures for early September standards as high temperatures push into the low to mid 80s. This cloud cover in tandem with ongoing advection of a warmer, humid airmass into the Great Lakes keeps overnight lows in the 60s. Slightly more humid day thus in store for Saturday as Gulf moisture advects northward and dewpoints push into the 60s, with temperatures once again in the low to mid 80s.
(Now through Saturday night) The main nearby feature will be an upper low over the North Central Gulf of Mexico Coast. Weak ridging will build into West Texas and will intervene with the upper low associated with Hurricane Kay farther to the west, but a few high clouds will still make it over the area. Unsettled weather will be associated with the upper feature over Louisiana, but drier, more stable conditions will prevail to the west of the low and over the South Texas region. The NHC does not expect tropical cyclone formation over the Gulf in the short term.
(This evening through Saturday) As another day of benign and warm weather wraps up our work week today, attention is turning to this weekend's cold front. Surface observations show that northerly winds predominate across the western Oklahoma panhandle this afternoon on the western edge of an inverted lee trough at the surface. Strong pressure rises shortly after sunset will destroy the lee trough and allow northerly winds to filter in from the north. The wind shift will continue to rush southward across Oklahoma before reaching western north Texas tomorrow night, aided by another strong round of pressure rises as an anticyclone develops across Kansas.
244 PM EDT Fri Sep 9 2022 High pressure across the northeastern states will bring plenty of sun and late summer warmth to the region through Saturday.
404 PM EDT Fri Sep 9 2022 High pressure will be situated east of the region tonight. There is some decent upper support pushing up into the area on Saturday, so current precipitation chances might be a little low, however several models are trying to keep rain chances lower so did not go on the higher end at this time.
Temperatures will fall into the upper 50s to mid 60s overnight then warm into the lower to mid 80s Saturday afternoon.
150 PM CDT Fri Sep 9 2022 (Issued 150 PM CDT Fri Sep 9 2022) Tonight through Saturday night: Warm thermal ridging will reside across the area into midday Saturday. This is due to the slow approach of the low level front with its associated baroclinicity. Rain chances look highest and heaviest across parts of SC WI due to placement of front and where low pressure starts to organize to our south and starts to nudge slowly northeastward along the front.
/Issued 1227 PM CDT Fri Sep 9 2022/ /Through Saturday/ Mid-level ridging will continue to keep quiet and warm weather in place across North and Central Texas through Saturday.
1202 PM CDT Fri Sep 9 2022 (Today through Saturday) A ridge of high pressure across the Four Corners strengthens into the weekend as a mid level low slowly digs out of the northern Gulf of Mexico.
302 PM CDT Fri Sep 9 2022 Key Messages: - A cold front will move through the area late tonight/tomorrow morning with cooler temperatures for the weekend. The surface cold front is moving into moving into far northwest Missouri as of 19Z. Higher amounts, closer to half an inch to three quarters of an inch will be across northeastern portions of the forecast area, closer to the better forcing as the upper low closes off to our northeast.
1221 PM CDT Fri Sep 9 2022 (Today through Saturday afternoon) West Texas and Southeast New Mexico are in between an upper low in the Gulf of Mexico and Tropical Storm Kay just south of California. An upper trough will deepen over the Central and Northern Plains on Saturday. This will send a cold front southward toward the area. Surface winds will become easterly on Saturday in advance of the cold front. This will result in temperatures on Saturday a few degrees cooler than the previous day.
1224 PM CDT Fri Sep 9 2022 (Today and tonight) Early morning water vapor imagery continues to show now Tropical Storm Kay over Baja California, an upper low over the Gulf Coast, an upper trough moving across the northwestern CONUS, and an area of high pressure squashed between the three of them over the Four Corners region. With upper heights similar to what we have seen in previous days, we should see highs in the low to mid-90s. This may help keep temperatures a little warmer than we have seen lately, but lows should still remain in the 60s for much of the region.
We have had reports of what we suspect is graupel with the cooler temps and instability. Shower activity should gradually weaken and slide south by mid to late evening as the 500mb trough axis slides to our south. Tonight will be much cooler with low 40s common and temperatures well below freezing in the higher terrain. Locations in low lying areas and river valleys across the area have a chance to briefly reach freezing overnight. Current ensemble probabilities for lows tonight/Saturday morning below freezing is around 40% for the Harlowton area and around 80% for the Livingston area. Dry high pressure will slowly build back over the region Saturday.
The upper low centered over the High Plains will continue to move/dig toward the Mississippi valley overnight.
Main push of moisture associated with upper level low pressure system across southern MS River Valley should push northeastward into to our area from the southeast as the overnight hours progress, resulting in scattered to numerous showers and potentially some isolated thunderstorms. Will however continue to mention isolated convection there with scattered convection to the east as upper level low drifts slowly northward and eventually opens up as Saturday night progresses as broad upper level troughing develops across the entire MS River Valley Region.
Afternoon convection on the western periphery of the upper low may spread into portions of northwest AR tomorrow, although any coverage continues to appear low. Additionally, the cold front associated with the passing trough will enter NE OK Saturday mid afternoon and sweep southward across the forecast area Saturday night.
a few degrees warmer than normal. Upper low centered over Louisiana lifts northward and weakens during the day Saturday. Lobes of vorticity rotating around the upper low works into the TN/OH Valley Saturday morning from the south sparking a wave of showers and a few embedded storms mainly during the morning.
1215 PM CDT Fri Sep 9 2022 The combination of a weak upper level ridge, increasing southerly surface flow and sunny skies today will allow temperatures to warm up near or just above seasonal norms. Meanwhile, an upper level trough over the Gulf Coast region will deepen and become cutoff.
1114 AM MDT Fri Sep 9 2022 The focus in the short term portion of the forecast is on the much cooler temperatures and the possibility of rain showers and a few thunderstorms across the area from this evening through Saturday evening. A cold front moved across the central High Plain early this morning with gusty north winds, increasing cloud cover and cooler temperatures moving in behind the front expected through the day today.
1129 AM EDT Fri Sep 9 2022 After a warm and sunny day today, rain chances will reenter the region tomorrow evening ahead of the next low pressure system. Today will be defined by mostly sunny skies as high pressure moves off to the east, transitioning the area to SE flow. Downslope winds could locally elevate gusts in the ridges the eastern valleys today and tonight, though gusts will likely not exceed 20 mph. Otherwise, low temperatures will remain seasonable tonight as the high moves away. Saturday will begin dry in the wake of the high with upper level SW flow. At the same time, an upper level jet will develop over Ohio, on the western side of a NE ridge.
1210 PM CDT Fri Sep 9 2022 (Today and tonight) With a weakening tropical system over the northern Baja Peninsula, and an upper low spinning over the northern Gulf of Mexico, our area is left in between under a weakened upper level ridge. Highs will be in the low to mid 90s for the most part, but a few locations will be in the upper 90s as well, mainly in the Concho Valley and Big Country.
128 PM EDT Fri Sep 9 2022 High pressure will remain over the area through Saturday, bringing us dry and warm weather during the days and foggy nights.
Saturday will begin dry in the wake of the high with upper level SW flow. At the same time, an upper level jet will develop over Ohio, on the western side of a NE ridge.
Although potential rainfall chances will be widespread, unfortunately qpf will be quite negligible, especially across the northern Sandhills into portions north central Nebraska where a lot of dry air in the lowest levels will prevent moisture reaching the sfc, resulting in a lot of areas of virga.
Forecast Details: High pressure continues to slip toward the Atlantic Coast tonight as a cold front pushes slowly eastward out of the upper Midwest. So although the cold front sits just west of our area tonight, it will make only slow eastward progress.
Skies will clear from northwest to southeast through the night into Saturday morning as cooler and drier air filters in. To the south clouds may hang in a little longer low temperatures will still bottom out in the lower to mid 50s.
Low temps this morning were the coolest since mid- June in many places but the core of cool air will shift east tonight as an upper ridge in the north Pacific approaches.
A short wave rounding the base of the Gulf of Mexico trough will eject northeast this evening, maintaining the deep convection northeast of the Yucatan Channel.
1255 PM CDT Fri Sep 9 2022 Summary: Much cooler with showers and isolated thunderstorms expected for the end of the week.
113 PM CDT Fri Sep 9 2022 KEY MESSAGES: - Nearly all locations will see some rain today into at least Saturday as a cold front passes through.
249 PM CDT Fri Sep 9 2022 A longwave trough extending from the mid-Atlantic coast to the LA/MS Gulf Coast is stirring up showers and thunderstorms this afternoon. Southerly flow along a closed low near the Louisiana coast is assisting in the transport of gulf moisture into the ArkLaMiss region. As we head into the evening, rain chances will decrease, but still remain isolated to scattered as the low pressure trickles northward into Mississippi. By tomorrow, the influence of low pressure will continue to show its effects. Afternoon highs will remain in the lower to middle 80s as cloud cover inhibits daytime heating.
Water vapor imagery highlights a mid latitude cyclone cut-off over the Gulf of Mexico. A potent jet max is visibile diving south into the Yucatan, about to round the base of the trough. The 12Z FL RAOBs sampled rising heights at most levels, which indicates the subtropical ridge is regaining real estate from the mid- latitude low. The forecast calls for gentle to moderate south to southwest breezes, a 30% rain/thunder chance, and highs in the lower 90s. Based on yesterday's results, the building ridge, and the stable layer in the BL, rain chances may be a little high. Prepare for less clearance under fixed bridges, and allow for more scope in dock and spring lines.
A deepening upper level trough over the Gulf of Mexico associated with an upper level low over Louisiana is helping to bring an abundance of tropical moisture over West Central Florida. The upper level low starts to lift north on Saturday with the highest amount of tropical moisture staying just off the coast.
Saturday night will most likely be cooler than tonight with lows falling more efficiently with clear skies and the dry airmass.
347 PM CDT Fri Sep 9 2022 A strong cold front will plow through western Kansas tonight ahead of an upper level trough digging into the plains. This will lead to dramatically cooler weather, with highs only in the 50s and 60s Saturday.
The cold front in our area at 19z was roughly along the I80 corridor, with cooler temperatures in the upper 60s and clouds to the north, and sunny skies with temperatures near 90 to the south. With the rain comes cooler temperatures tomorrow in the upper 60s to lower 70s.
358 PM CDT Fri Sep 9 2022 A cold front pushed across south central Nebraska this morning as is currently moving across north central Kansas.
1215 PM CDT Fri Sep 9 2022 (Today and tonight) With a weakening tropical system over the northern Baja Peninsula, and an upper low spinning over the northern Gulf of Mexico, our area is left in between under a weakened upper level ridge. Highs will be in the low to mid 90s for the most part, but a few locations will be in the upper 90s as well, mainly in the Concho Valley and Big Country.
/NEW/ /Through Saturday/ Mid-level ridging will continue to keep quiet and warm weather in place across North and Central Texas through Saturday.
225 PM CDT Fri Sep 9 2022 A mid/upper trough was evident on water vapor imagery stretching from Manitoba/Saskatchewan south and southwestward into the Northern Rockies and Northern Plains. A cold front also extended southward across the Northern and Central Plains bisecting northwest Kansas this afternoon. This cold front is progged to move south across the region tonight bringing increasing chances for showers and storms late tonight through early Saturday evening before a drier more stable post- frontal regime becomes entrenched across the area.
(This evening through Saturday) Dry and warm tonight and Saturday with high pressure aloft. Highs will be slightly less hot in the lower and mid 90s Saturday.
1229 PM EDT Fri Sep 9 2022 After a warm and sunny day today, rain chances will reenter the region tomorrow evening ahead of the next low pressure system. Today will be defined by mostly sunny skies as high pressure moves off to the east, transitioning the area to SE flow. Downslope winds could locally elevate gusts in the ridges the eastern valleys today and tonight, though gusts will likely not exceed 20 mph. Otherwise, low temperatures will remain seasonable tonight as the high moves away. Saturday will begin dry in the wake of the high with upper level SW flow. At the same time, an upper level jet will develop over Ohio, on the western side of a NE ridge.
A cold front pushed across south central Nebraska this morning as is currently moving across north central Kansas.
523 PM MDT Fri Sep 9 2022 Upper trough is situated over the northern Rockies, with coupled jet streaks over our CWA.
A few areas in north- central Idaho may experience frost, especially the high valley locations. There will be diminishing east winds overnight, but some locations may hang onto enough wind to prevent temperatures cooling down to freezing. If you have sensitive vegetation, you may want to think about bringing them into a warmer location or covering them. This weekend the temperatures will trend warmer across the region.
955 PM CDT Fri Sep 9 2022 Forecast continues to be on track as high pressure remains in control across the area. Expecting a mix of clouds and light winds overnight, with temperatures forecast to be mainly in the low to mid 40s. Current forecast on track as high pressure continues to settle over the region. Winds will continue to be light and the cooler and drier air will see temps in the low 40s, with a few isolated pockets of upper 30s in the overnight hours. Saturday night will most likely be cooler than tonight with lows falling more efficiently with clear skies and the dry airmass.
Moisture from the GOMEX continues to stream up and over the cooler wedge in place, producing waves of shra. (This evening through Saturday) An occluded, cutoff low pressure system sits along the Gulf of Mexico coastline, and will slowly meander westward through the short term period. Near the ground, a high pressure system around New England will provide persistent upslope flow out of the east, which when reinforced with light, steady precipitation, will continue to build in wedge conditions throughout the area through the short term forecast. Under a near-tropical/moist adiabatic thermo profile, with cooler air near the ground, instability will be very limited over the next couple of days, even when accounting for MUCAPE from warm, moist air gliding over the wedge front.
A strong cold front will plow through western Kansas tonight ahead of an upper level trough digging into the plains. This will lead to dramatically cooler weather, with highs only in the 50s and 60s Saturday.
645 PM CDT Fri Sep 9 2022 (This evening through Saturday) An upper level low remains centered over the north central gulf coast this afternoon while a weak cold front is stalled over the northern gulf. Eastward and closer to the upper low PWATs are running around the 75th percentile for the date. With the higher moisture content, scattered showers and storms have begun to develop over the Atchafalaya Basin and LA capitol region. The upper low will very slowly drift west into Saturday pulling the higher moisture values west with it. SE TX will keep the lower pop values with scattered to numerous afternoon storms possible toward the Atchafalaya.
711 PM CDT Fri Sep 9 2022 (This evening through Saturday) As another day of benign and warm weather wraps up our work week today, attention is turning to this weekend's cold front. Surface observations show that northerly winds predominate across the western Oklahoma panhandle this afternoon on the western edge of an inverted lee trough at the surface. Strong pressure rises shortly after sunset will destroy the lee trough and allow northerly winds to filter in from the north. The wind shift will continue to rush southward across Oklahoma before reaching western north Texas tomorrow night, aided by another strong round of pressure rises as an anticyclone develops across Kansas.
Band of clouds and embedded showers lurking just upstream ahead of a slow moving cold front. Mostly clear skies expected to continue for areas south of the bridge. Maintenance of light south winds will keep temperatures a bit on the mild side, with lows by morning ranging through the 50s into the lower 60s. Forecast Details: High pressure continues to slip toward the Atlantic Coast tonight as a cold front pushes slowly eastward out of the upper Midwest. So although the cold front sits just west of our area tonight, it will make only slow eastward progress.
646 PM CDT Fri Sep 9 2022 Current forecast on track as high pressure continues to settle over the region. Winds will continue to be light and the cooler and drier air will see temps in the low 40s, with a few isolated pockets of upper 30s in the overnight hours. Saturday night will most likely be cooler than tonight with lows falling more efficiently with clear skies and the dry airmass.
High pressure was moving off to the east today, but still providing much of the area with blue skies and southwest winds. A cold front was stretched from SE NE into northern WI. Tonight, dry conditions will continue as the cold front slowly moves into the NW CWA. Saturday, the cold front will be moving through the area with rain with some isolated rumbles of thunder behind it.