Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
230 AM MDT Tue May 19 2020 Water vapor shows upper ridge axis extending through the northern plains with deep upper trof just inland the west coast. At the surface, gusty southerly winds continue with tight pressure gradient between upper midwest ridge and lee trof. Today will be the warmest of the week with thermal ridge overhead, Widespread highs in the 80s, except a little cooler in the higher terrain of the Black Hills and our far eastern zones. Staunch cap will remain in place through the afternoon, but ejecting short wave from western trof could be enough to allow some storms to move into our far western zones during the evening. Wednesday still on track to be an active severe wx day as negatively tilted trof lifts northward.
The shift in forcing is due to the compact jetlet on the rearward side of the deep upper level low circulation pivoting into the subgeostrophic region of the trough. As the jetlet pivots around the circulation later today, a geopotential height rises response occurs along the northeast sector of the closed upper level low.
A full-latitudinal deep trough extending from the Great Lake States equatorward to the extreme Southeast Gulf of Mexico and the Florida Peninsula will lift northward today, taking most of the mid and upward ascent with it. Thereafter, a low and mid level western Atlantic ridge will fill into our region with some drier air.
High pressure still dominating the region causing this hot and dry weather.
1150 PM CDT Mon May 18 2020 Updated forecast for precipitation trends with one area of more concentrated showers currently moving across the south central Illinois, and a second area that is moving southwestward toward west central Illinois around the upper low. Tilly The main focus thru this period will be the stacked upper low currently impacting the region. Model solns generally suggest this low will lift to the NE out of the Ohio Valley.
212 AM EDT Tue May 19 2020 High pressure over Quebec will bring about a drying trend with fair and dry weather expected through a majority of this week.
144 AM CDT Tue May 19 2020 All rain has shifted east into GA with the cold frontal passage. So, we may have a partly to mostly sunny early start to the day before clouds redevelop in advance of the upper low. The low was over southern IL and had a large incidence of showers and several "cold air funnel" reports yesterday in central IL associated with it's shallow convection. On Wednesday, the upper low meanders slightly east, and may give us a better chance for heating on the southwest side of the low.
1229 AM CDT Tue May 19 2020 With high level clouds coming over the region tonight along with steady southeast breezes, temperatures will be mild overnight only falling into the mid 40s to the lower 50s by morning. Upper ridging continues to build over the northern plains today. Southeast winds ahead of a lee side trough are expected to develop again on Tuesday after gusts diminish tonight. With the ridge and good mixing, temps have climbed into the 60s and 70s today, though hampered in some places by cirrus. Went with a cooler solution for now, but if the stratus clears by noon, daytime heating will be sufficient that warmer highs in the 70s will be probable.
Latest GOES Water Vapor Imagery shows a compact 560mb upper level low spinning over southern Illinois. This low is progged to slowly sag south into the Mid- South this afternoon. A few thunderstorms are possible by late afternoon, mainly near the Tennessee River, as upper level lapse rates steepen due to cooler temperatures aloft. The pesky upper level low pressure system will remain over the Mid-South through late week. This will translate to cooler than normal temperatures and isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms each day.
1149 PM CDT Mon May 18 2020 An upper level omega blocking pattern will keep the weather fairly status quo through Tuesday with cool and cloudy conditions. An upper low over IL will move south into TN by Tuesday.
This low will continue to meander south today, but with Tropical Storm Arthur still hugging the Eastern coastline.
335 AM EDT Tue May 19 2020 An upper level low pressure system will move south of the Ohio Valley on Tuesday. A chance for showers will then linger through much of the week as the upper level low slowly drifts across the Tennessee Valley. A broad area of low pressure underneath of the low has resulted in the development of a low-level convergent boundary over the Ohio Valley that has been the focus for rainfall early this morning.
146 AM EDT Tue May 19 2020 An upper level low pressure system will move across the Ohio Valley tonight through Tuesday, bringing occasional showers and the possibility of heavy rain to the region. A chance for showers will then linger through much of the week as the upper level low slowly drifts across the Tennessee Valley. Moisture will continue to advect around this low ahead of a quasi-stationary front over western Ohio. Widespread showers will continue to rotate around the low overnight. This will help keep us cool through the day with highs on Tuesday in the low to mid 60s.
The low-level moisture and stratus in place extends eastward through Iowa and is associated with wraparound moisture from a strong closed low centered along the Illinois/Indiana border. Ridging is in place over the Central Plains, with troughing centered just off the west coast. This ridging will keep the short term forecast rather quiet, with the main concerns in the short term being how the aforementioned closed low and wraparound moisture will affect cloud cover over the next couple of days. Current model solutions seem to be in agreement that the strong closed low will begin to weaken and stall out, moving slowly to the south and east.
These clouds will be dissipating quickly by mid-morning as temperatures climb into the lower 90s by noon time. Both GFS and NAM forecast soundings for Tuesday afternoon show a very dry airmass between 6 and 8 Kft with even a bit of a south southwest component and that could be enough for the airmass to mix down for a few degrees warmer than expected.
The upper level pattern will remain highly amplified thru the period, with a bit of a ridge building to the west. The upper low that has been over the midwest will wobble to the southwest into TN by the end of the period. At the surface, high pressure will continue to build into the area. The only exception will be for potential wrap-around clouds and precipitation with the low as it moves into TN.
153 AM EDT Tue May 19 2020 A closed upper low centered over southern Illinois will drift slowly southeast to the Tennessee Valley by the middle of this week. A ridge of high pressure between these two storm systems will bring fair and generally dry weather across the region through at least Wednesday night.
Lingering showers have just about moved east of NE AL this late Mon evening, with the weak cold front not far behind the exiting precip. Mid/high clouds are spreading into the area from the NW in the wake of the frontal passage, as temps fall mainly into the lower/mid 60s. Clouds will increase steadily on Tuesday as the low meanders into Tennessee. This activity will become more isolated Tuesday, but expect an uptick in convection on Wednesday as the center of the low moves directly over North Alabama.
715 AM EDT Tue May 19 2020 A closed upper low will meander over the Tennessee Valley through much of this week, as high pressure builds across New England.
600 AM CDT Tue May 19 2020 Second verse same as the first! GOES water vapor is showing the stacked closed low shifting south over the past 6 hours, good news. Unfortunately, being on the north side of the low brings the moisture plume right into the forecast area.
This likely to head in as influence of the low slowly wanes. Forecast Confidence is Medium to The pesky cut-off low will keep clouds and drizzle over the area today, but it does look like we'll start to dry out by this evening as the upper level low moves from central Illinois to Tennessee. With the low pressure system shifting to the southeast, an axis of high pressure will set up to our north on Wednesday and allow some drier air to move in resulting in some sunshine. This will also keep our easterly winds in place and therefore temperatures will be cooler by the lake.
556 AM MDT Tue May 19 2020 Low pressure over northern California will slowly lift across the Great Basin and into the Northern Rockies over the next few day. Wednesday the surface trof moves east as the upper low lifts into western Montana.
810 AM EDT Tue May 19 2020 Southward sagging low pressure will maintain shower chances over parts of the region through the week. Only minor alterations were needed for the post-dawn updates this morning as the drying trend from the northeast is underway as cutoff low pressure is digging toward the Tennessee Valley. Low-level lapse rate will be sufficient to mix down strong wind gusts of around 30 MPH west of the ridges, and 35 to 45 MPH in the higher elevations. In other ridge areas, potential is more marginal, but there are some elements in model soundings (such as orthogonal flow, reverse shear, and overall stability) that suggest possible mountain wave activity.
The short term high resolution models all indicate an 850mb thermal ridge will dominate much of West Texas this afternoon, with temperatures, over West Central Texas, mainly around 30 Celsius. Becoming Cooler with Possible Rain. Plus, flow from the southeast will become more dominate, at 850mb, and this will help prevent the thermal ridge from expanding into West Central Texas, from the west; this in turn will help produce cooler temperatures, most notable much cooler afternoon highs.
While the upper low is finally dropping south through Illinois, southeast flow will continue to advect moisture northwestward from the system into the CWA today. The influence of the upper low will further diminish Wednesday, allowing the building ridge across the Plains to spread east a but to the Upper Mississippi Valley region. Southeast low level flow will still not lend favorably to a 'substantial' warm up, but a warmer thermal profile and decreasing cloud cover will nonetheless result in highs rebounding to 75 to 80 Wednesday. The Omega pattern characterized by a deep trough over the Rockies and the cut off low over the Mid Atlantic will do little to change our sensible weather until the weekend.
Similar to yesterday, the closed upper low shifts slightly, but overall impacts the region in the form of stratus through the afternoon. The upper ridge begins to breakdown Wednesday as the aforementioned cutoff low meanders around the southeast CONUS. Latest models are hinting at light showers or drizzle developing Wednesday morning as a weak perturbation rotates around the backside of the low. Highs were also lowered back into the low 70s, given the weak flow and inability for the stratus to scatter out until late afternoon.
1010 AM EDT Tue May 19 2020 Aviation section updated Another cloudy day for central Indiana as an upper level low continues to slowly meander around the Ohio Valley. Surface analysis early this morning shows low pressure over southeast Indiana. pushing west in circulation around the low to the southeast. The cut off low pressure system is expected to continue to drift southward today. Thus have kept a cloudy sky today along with highs cooler than the NBM given our rain chances.
509 AM MDT Tue May 19 2020 Water vapor shows upper ridge axis extending through the northern plains with deep upper trof just inland the west coast. At the surface, gusty southerly winds continue with tight pressure gradient between upper midwest ridge and lee trof. Today will be the warmest of the week with thermal ridge overhead, Widespread highs in the 80s, except a little cooler in the higher terrain of the Black Hills and our far eastern zones. Staunch cap will remain in place through the afternoon, but ejecting short wave from western trof could be enough to allow some storms to move into our far western zones during the evening. Wednesday still on track to be an active severe wx day as negatively tilted trof lifts northward.
536 AM EDT Tue May 19 2020 A closed upper low will meander over the Tennessee Valley through much of this week, as high pressure builds across New England.
656 AM CDT Tue May 19 2020 Area of high clouds continues to move into the 500 mb ridge over NW MN and diminish in coverage. 500 mb ridge over the region today.
All rain has shifted east into GA with the cold frontal passage. So, we may have a partly to mostly sunny early start to the day before clouds redevelop in advance of the upper low. The low was over southern IL and had a large incidence of showers and several "cold air funnel" reports yesterday in central IL associated with it's shallow convection. On Wednesday, the upper low meanders slightly east, and may give us a better chance for heating on the southwest side of the low.
The trough of low pressure that will continue to bring rainfall to the region over the next few days will dig further south, keeping western Montana and north central Idaho in general southerly flow with an increasingly unstable atmosphere.
Lower SC deck still forecast to develop/move into northwest Arkansas, spreading into northeast Oklahoma around mid day on backside of upper low.
426 AM CDT Tue May 19 2020 Forecast highlights in the short term period will be warmer temperatures today along with continued breezy conditions. Currently, upper level ridge axis remains parked across the Great Plains, as an upper level low/long wave trough starts to dig into the Desert Southwest. Strong warm air advection (WAA) pushing north across the far western Dakotas will see daytime highs in my west reach near 90F, cooler to the east with low/mid 80s central and mid/upper 70s across my east. Upper trough moves east into the Intermountain West and eventually the Rockies on Wednesday/Wed night. Best chances for western ND will be Wed night when storms move north/northeast out of the high plains into our area.
923 AM EDT Tue May 19 2020 The upper short wave trough and weak surface front continue to push through the Florida peninsula this morning. Cloud cover and shower activity will decrease this afternoon as the short wave and front exit the area allowing for weak high pressure in the central Gulf of Mexico and drier air to move into the region. Interaction between a weak front moving through Florida and high pressure over the central Gulf of Mexico will keep west-southwest winds around 10-15 knots over the gulf coast waters for the next couple of days. Conditions improve by the end of the week and into the weekend as high pressure remains over the area.
317 AM PDT Tue May 19 2020 A low pressure system moving inland through California today will bring cooling, gusty southwest to west winds in the mountains and deserts, and a chance of showers near the mountains.
A strong, late season low pressure system will bring windy conditions and areas of critical fire weather to northern Arizona again today. Expect another dry and windy day today as a cold upper low ejects through the Great Basin. Cooler temperatures are expected as well, due to lower hghts and a dry cold front. Some areas in the high country may see low temperatures below freezing tonight and Wednesday night.
Another cloudy day for central Indiana as an upper level low continues to slowly meander around the Ohio Valley. Surface analysis early this morning shows low pressure over southeast Indiana. pushing west in circulation around the low to the southeast. The cut off low pressure system is expected to continue to drift southward today. Thus have kept a cloudy sky today along with highs cooler than the NBM given our rain chances.
649 AM EDT Tue May 19 2020 Canadian high pressure will allow for continued dry and seasonable weather through the work week. Skies will be sunny to start the day with some cirrus debris increasing through the afternoon from the upper low over the Ohio Valley. Skies will once again clear from the north overnight as the upper low retrogrades southward. A dry and pleasant stretch of weather continues through the short term period as the area remains under the influence of upper level ridging.
Forecast highlights in the short term period will be warmer temperatures today along with continued breezy conditions. Currently, upper level ridge axis remains parked across the Great Plains, as an upper level low/long wave trough starts to dig into the Desert Southwest. Strong warm air advection (WAA) pushing north across the far western Dakotas will see daytime highs in my west reach near 90F, cooler to the east with low/mid 80s central and mid/upper 70s across my east. Upper trough moves east into the Intermountain West and eventually the Rockies on Wednesday/Wed night. Best chances for western ND will be Wed night when storms move north/northeast out of the high plains into our area.
A weakening cold front will cross our coastal waters this afternoon and evening.
Initially they developed over the waters southwest and west of the Lower Keys, but have since mostly dissipated. There is also plenty of moisture through the lowest 3000 feet.
The lower conds wl prevail the longest ovr N AR. The system wl rmn cutoff the main upr steering flow as a blocking high pres rdg aloft sets up to the N of the system. The resulting cyclonic flow acrs AR wl cont to bring periods of clouds to mainly the NE half of the FA, which wl result in cooler high temps today and Wed.
The upper ridge and limited moisture will preclude precipitation during the period. The mid/upper level ridge will continue through the end of the work week as the blocking pattern remains in place with a area low pressure over the Tennessee Valley and the other in the Northwestern United States. Subsidence aloft from the ridging will result in mostly sunny skies with warm to hot temperatures.
636 AM CDT Tue May 19 2020 Overall synoptic pattern places a ridge over the Plains, between a cutoff low over the Tennessee/Ohio Valley and a western trough, with the axis over the Great Basin. The ECMWF and to a lesser extent, the GFS indicate a cooling trend with 850 mb temperatures for today over the past few model runs, hence lowering our high temperatures for today to the lower to mid 70s for the tri- cities, keeping our highs in the 70s for the entire CWA. Lows in the lower 50s tonight look appropriate. The blocking pattern persists, hence trending the arrival of precip later.
The system wl rmn cutoff the main upr steering flow as a blocking high pres rdg aloft sets up to the N of the system. The resulting cyclonic flow acrs AR wl cont to bring periods of clouds to mainly the NE half of the FA, which wl result in cooler high temps today and Wed.
As the upper low over southern Indiana/western Kentucky moves southeast slowly today, cloud cover will only increase and become more persistent. On Wednesday, the upper low meanders slightly east, and may give us a better chance for heating on the southwest side of the low.
750 AM EDT Tue May 19 2020 High pressure over Quebec will bring about a drying trend with fair and dry weather expected through a majority of this week.
Thanks to a significant Omega blocking pattern, a high pressure axis aloft will sit over the South Central U. The main difference today compared to yesterday will be slightly warmer temperatures with stronger winds. More of the same is expected Wednesday with high pressure dominating and temperatures rising well above normal once again.
507 AM CDT Tue May 19 2020 Overall synoptic pattern places a ridge over the Plains, between a cutoff low over the Tennessee/Ohio Valley and a western trough, with the axis over the Great Basin. The ECMWF and to a lesser extent, the GFS indicate a cooling trend with 850 mb temperatures, hence lowering our high temperatures for today to the lower to mid 70s for the tri-cities, keeping our highs in the 70s for the entire CWA. Lows in the lower 50s tonight look appropriate. The blocking pattern persists, hence trending the arrival of precip later.
/issued 301 AM CDT Tue May 19 2020/ Current water vapor explains the setup very well for west Texas as the state is nestled under a prominent ridge axis centered through the central US. This is sandwiched between a cutoff upper-low over the Midwest and a broad trough entering into the Pac coast. The combo will lead to intense heating under a well placed thermal ridge in our forecast area today. Our ridge will breakdown slowly through the rest of the week as the western trough moves eastward into the Inter-Mountain west, lowering heights and keeping the temps cooler than the past few days.
404 AM CDT Tue May 19 2020 The cloudy, cool weather pattern will continue through Wednesday due to the slow moving upper level low currently over southern IL, just southeast of STL which will move southeastward through parts of KY and TN as it very slowly fills. The best coverage of showers should be during the afternoon with better instability near the low center with cold mid level temperatures. The best coverage of showers today should be across southwest IL, just northwest of the upper low. The high temperatures will continue to be below normal due to the low upper level heights, northerly surface winds, and the low level clouds inhibiting diurnal solar insolation. Prefer the cooler NAM model MOS guidance for high temperatures today and Wednesday and will go close to the 25th percentile for highs.
(Today and tonight) The synoptic scale omega blocking pattern will continue keeping the Southern Plains under the ridge through the short term of the forecast. Meanwhile at the surface, a low lee of the Southern Rockies with a warm front stretched across northern Texas will continue to dig southward, gradually shifting our winds from the east to the northeast for tonight.
729 AM EDT Tue May 19 2020 Aviation - Scattered showers today - Mostly dry the rest of the week - Scattered showers today Upper low begins to move south today as rex block develops.
602 AM CDT Tue May 19 2020 Low pressure will linger just east of Illinois today, and even on Wednesday. Low pressure churning over W-SW Indiana early this morning will move very slowly to the S-SE through tonight. Various spokes of energy rotating around the low will be foci for scattered showers today and into this evening.
As the day progresses, a cold front will move south over the FL peninsula.
At KABI, passage of a backdoor cold front tonight is expected by 05Z. Patchy low cloud development will be possible late tonight across the Big Country, with expectations at this time for the low cloud field to stay north of KABI prior to 12Z. The short term high resolution models all indicate an 850mb thermal ridge will dominate much of West Texas this afternoon, with temperatures, over West Central Texas, mainly around 30 Celsius. Becoming Cooler with Possible Rain. Plus, flow from the southeast will become more dominate, at 850mb, and this will help prevent the thermal ridge from expanding into West Central Texas, from the west; this in turn will help produce cooler temperatures, most notable much cooler afternoon highs.
Southeast low-level flow will increase to the west of this ridge axis across our area as the surface pressure gradient tightens. A deep upper low pressure system is progressing slowly eastward across the western U. This is due to the continued partial flow into the area from the cooler Great Lakes region. Sided with the cooler guidance for this reason which has highs generally in the mid 70s. The center of the upper level low will track north-northeast into ID by Wednesday afternoon and become somewhat negatively tilted. As this occurs the base of the upper trough will pivot into CO and WY.
Breezy to windy conditions will occur today followed by cooler temperatures on Wednesday as a weather system moves north of the area.
A brief break in precipitation is expected for most of the lowlands on Tuesday into early Wednesday.