Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Expect a welcomed dry stretch through Tuesday evening as high pressure builds in across the Ohio Valley. Latest surface analysis places the cold front east of Kentucky with a 1033mb high pressure center noted over the Northern Plains and Upper MS Valley. Southern KY will see an increase in clouds Tuesday afternoon as an upper low tracks eastward across the Gulf States. Low-amplitude split flow is expected for much of the coming week, with broad eastern CONUS trofiness and a suppressed southern stream. Could see a modest cooling trend over the weekend, as the upper trof over eastern Canada deepens just enough to keep a southern stream disturbance nicely suppressed. High pressure will pass over the region tomorrow, so expect light winds and SKC through this period.
A quick drop in temperatures is expected after sunset with high pressure remaining our dominate feature. Winds will increase into the afternoon as low pressure deepens in eastern Colorado. Minimum relative humidity values tomorrow afternoon are currently forecast to range from about 20 to 30 percent with the lowest values west of Highway 75. Highs are forecast to reach the low to mid 60s across the CWA tomorrow afternoon.
632 PM EST Mon Mar 1 2021 Lows will tumble into the teens tonight as high pressure settles in. As high pressure settles in overnight, nearly overhead, lows will tumble into the teens. With high pressure now to our east, southwesterly winds will provide a nice temperature recovery for the afternoon. Look for highs in the low-40s. Zonal flow aloft will give way to northwest flow locally later on this week as a towering ridge builds over the Rockies.
/issued 254 PM CST Mon Mar 1 2021/ Surface analysis this afternoon indicates a cold front stretching from the Appalachians back through the Southeast United States and back along the Texas/Louisiana Gulf Coast. An upper level closed off low pressure system will start to approach the area Tuesday afternoon into the evening.
406 PM EST Mon Mar 1 2021 A ridge of high pressure will gradually take control of area weather in the short term. A much cooler air mass will settle over the region tonight, which will make for a very cold night. Light winds and the clearing skies will set the stage for a decent ridge valley temperature split tonight, especially in our deeper and normally colder eastern valley locations. We may experience periods of strong, gusty winds this afternoon from time to time, but these should slacken quickly after sunset and as a cold front continues to pull away to our east.
459 PM CST Mon Mar 1 2021 (This evening through Tuesday) A weakening upper low was over far west Texas just northwest of Odessa this afternoon. The low will move northeast across the northern Big Country early tonight, and to The Red River near Sherman by 6 AM Tuesday. With north winds diminishing, expect temperatures to drop into the upper 20s to lower 30s for lows early Tuesday morning across the western half of our area, and into the lower to mid 30s in our far eastern counties.
High pressure is expected to hold over the area for the balance of the week. Expect clear and cold conditions overnight as high pressure spreads across the area. Generally quiet weather expected during this period, as heights rise in response to a developing long wave ridge over the Plains. At the surface, high pressure will slowly drift through the area. A cutoff low, currently moving into west Texas, is progged by the models to stay well to the south of the local area, undercutting the developing ridge. Broad high pressure will be in place through the period with dry conditions expected.
Cooler air over the snow covered areas has been advected northward and has inhibited the rise in temperatures over the bare ground areas. Also, the low dew points helped with the increased sublimation from the snow cover keeping the air above it cooler. The snow cover will melt quicker with above freezing air moving over it, along with good mixing.
near 50 coast so quite a bit cooler than just a day ago. Temperatures on Tuesday will only warm to the mid 50s hampered by the cloud cover and over the west/southwestern areas where the clouds clear earlier highs could reach the lower 60s.
The higher rain chances will remain south of MLC/FSM, but the chance of a shower tomorrow morning at those two terminals is nonzero. /Issued 330 PM CST Mon Mar 1 2021/ A positively tilted upper level low pressure system currently over the Texas Panhandle/West Texas is expected to continue to push eastward tonight and become nearly vertically stacked aloft over Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas. Surface temps tonight should remain at/above freezing over the majority of the CWA. cold temps within the upper low center could create a small window Tuesday morning for a period of a rain/sleet/snow mix to be possible within the highest terrain of Southern Le Flore co and also the highest terrain across Northwest Arkansas.
On upper ridge slides into the central plains during day, allowing mid level flow to turn more swly in the afternoon. Could see some breezy winds over mainly Baca County ahead of the lee trough in the afternoon, though stronger gradient should stay e-se into KS and the OK/TX Panhandles.
Dry conditions with warmer temperatures on the way. Unfortunately today the warmer temperatures are coming with a brisk south to southwest wind, so the farther north and east you are, the colder it is going to feel today. Low pressure is situated over Alberta Canada with a warm front into southwest North Dakota. We are currently in the lower to middle 50s over southwest North Dakota, west of the front, but still stuck in the teens over the far eastern portion of the CWA with wind chills around zero. The warm front will push through the forecast area tonight so lows over the Turtle mountains will be around 15 to 20 above tonight, instead of 15 to 20 below.
While not a significant change, did adjust overnight lows to reflect a little more cloud cover and slightly warmer temps. CD Chattanooga Airport, TN 36 54 41 60 37 / 10 30 70 10 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 33 52 38 56 36 / 0 10 60 20 0 Oak Ridge, TN 34 52 38 59 35 / 0 0 50 20 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 29 51 34 56 33 / 0 0 50 30 0.
330 PM CST Mon Mar 1 2021 A positively tilted upper level low pressure system currently over the Texas Panhandle/West Texas is expected to continue to push eastward tonight and become nearly vertically stacked aloft over Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas. Surface temps tonight should remain at/above freezing over the majority of the CWA. cold temps within the upper low center could create a small window Tuesday morning for a period of a rain/sleet/snow mix to be possible within the highest terrain of Southern Le Flore co and also the highest terrain across Northwest Arkansas.
On Tuesday, the upper low now entering TX will advance quickly through the lower MS Valley. With the rain and clouds influencing temperatures greatly by offsetting modest warm air advection, will go closer to cooler raw temperature guidance both Tuesday into Tuesday night.
305 PM CST Mon Mar 1 2021 Upper level system responsible for today's light precipitation will move into the ArkLaTex leaving west Texas under the influence of a flat ridge. High pressure, developing over SE NM will move southeast allowing winds across the area to become light and variable late this evening.
March in like a lamb as Canadian high pressure builds into the area from the northwest providing plenty of sunshine, along with northwest winds 5 to 10 mph. High pressure will be situated right over the dvn cwa. Lows will bottom out in the teens north where there is still snow cover, to the lower to mid 20s south with bare ground. Tuesday: The high pressure will shift to our east returning south to southwest winds to the cwa. A prolonged dry pattern continues through the upcoming weekend, as the CONUS will be dealing with a storm track well to the south, and by late week, this becomes a dominant upper ridge pattern over the Midwest.
415 PM MST Mon Mar 1 2021 A large scale ridge pattern encompassed areas from the High Plains westward.
626 PM EST Mon Mar 1 2021 A ridge of high pressure will gradually take control of area weather in the short term. A much cooler air mass will settle over the region tonight, which will make for a very cold night. Light winds and the clearing skies will set the stage for a decent ridge valley temperature split tonight, especially in our deeper and normally colder eastern valley locations. We may experience periods of strong, gusty winds this afternoon from time to time, but these should slacken quickly after sunset and as a cold front continues to pull away to our east.
/issued 244 PM CST Mon Mar 1 2021/ WV imagery shows the upper trough centered over SE NM at 18Z, w/area radars indicating light precipitation, mainly over the northern Permian Basin. Models have not done a good job capturing this, but the HRRR/NAM suggest this will taper off to the NE by mid-afternoon as the trough moves into the Southern Plains. Skies should clear out overnight as subsidence sets in on the backside of the trough, and coupled w/light and variable sfc winds, will leave West Texas and Southeast New Mexico wide open to a hard freeze for most of the area as radiational cooling is optimized.
Cooler air over the snow covered areas has been advected northward and has inhibited the rise in temperatures over the bare ground areas. Also, the low dew points helped with the increased sublimation from the snow cover keeping the air above it cooler. The snow cover will melt quicker with above freezing air moving over it along with good mixing.
/issued 305 PM CST Mon Mar 1 2021/ Upper level system responsible for today's light precipitation will move into the ArkLaTex leaving west Texas under the influence of a flat ridge. High pressure, developing over SE NM will move southeast allowing winds across the area to become light and variable late this evening.
1021 PM MST Mon Mar 1 2021 Current surface map shows this mornings backdoor front shifting back eastward as a warm front. Upper level ridge over the Rockies flattens tonight as clipper moves through southern Canada. Will also be windy across northwest South Dakota Tuesday behind surface trof. Snow cover around the KPHP area will keep that area 5-10 degrees cooler than surrounding areas.
Return flow will increase across the central US tonight, and become gusty tomorrow as a low pressure system moving into the Great Lakes region leads to an increasing gradient across the central Plains. Towards midweek, weak omega block develops across the southern US as an upper trough digs along the west coast and moves inland along the California coast on Wednesday.
/22/ Prior discussion below: Tonight and Tomorrow: A surface cold front has cleared the area early this afternoon with northerly winds and low-level cold air advection observed at all reporting sites. By tonight, a closed low will slide across the Southern Plains and then through the Lower Mississippi Valley tomorrow. 5" with the highest totals along and southeast of the Natchez Trace corridor. Temperatures will be raw with overnight lows dropping into the low to upper 40s and then struggling to rise during the day owing to expansive rainfall and low-level cold advection. High pressure at the surface and upper ridging aloft will prevail across the region through much of the week.
Not much to change with high pressure in control, so just made some minor tweaks to temps. Meanwhile an upper low digging south then east offshore will push ridge axis further east over the Rocky Mountains and Great Plains region Tuesday and Wednesday. This synoptic pattern will otherwise keep a generally dry zonal flow over the forecast area through Wednesday night, then turn southwesterly aloft as upper low moves ashore in southern CA Wednesday. Dry flow aloft will keep the forecast area fairly dry with occasional partly cloudy conditions near mountain areas, while southwesterly flow aloft will filter in warmer air into the region.
112 AM EST Tue Mar 2 2021 Lows will tumble into the teens tonight as high pressure settles in. As high pressure settles in overnight, nearly overhead, lows will tumble into the teens. With high pressure now to our east, southwesterly winds will provide a nice temperature recovery for the afternoon. Look for highs in the low-40s. Zonal flow aloft will give way to northwest flow locally later on this week as a towering ridge builds over the Rockies.
Dry high pressure will dominate the weather overnight, providing clear skies and light north winds - ideal radiational cooling conditions. A weak cold front will continue to slide through the area late this afternoon through this evening. Behind this front, high pressure will build back into the area with temperatures through tomorrow remain around normal. High pressure will continue to dominate the weather over the area through most of the week.
A passing low pressure will cross Ontario bringing a decent amount of southwest wind to the Northland today - especially on Lake Superior. Soundings indicate anything that does fall may fall as either fzdz or dz as temperatures will be hovering around freezing with little to no ice expected in the clouds as WAA is prevalent. The only forecast concern will be LLWS across the region this morning as low pressure over Ontario moves through.
1042 PM EST Mon Mar 1 2021 Currently - Deep layered ridging remains entrenched across the area with the surface and lower level ridges displaced east of Florida and ridging into the Gulf of Mexico. Stable conditions prevail with multiple subsidence inversions, the lowest of which is near 950 mb. Short Term Update - Ridging will continue to dominate the area through the overnight hours. An Atlantic ridge extending across Florida will maintain light to gentle east to southeasterly breezes on Keys waters overnight.
On upper ridge slides into the central plains during day, allowing mid level flow to turn more swly in the afternoon. Could see some breezy winds over mainly Baca County ahead of the lee trough in the afternoon, though stronger gradient should stay e-se into KS and the OK/TX Panhandles. The upper-level ridge continues to dominate the weather pattern, keeping dry and quiet weather through the day on Wednesday. Lows are expected to be in the upper teens to lower 20s across the plains and single digits to teens above zero in the high valleys. Wednesday temperatures are expected to warm back up into the upper 50s to mid 60s along and east of the I-25 corridor, while the high valleys should see highs in the lower to mid 50s.
A ridge of high pressure will gradually take control of area weather in the short term. A much cooler air mass will settle over the region tonight, which will make for a very cold night. Light winds and the clearing skies will set the stage for a decent ridge valley temperature split tonight, especially in our deeper and normally colder eastern valley locations. We may experience periods of strong, gusty winds this afternoon from time to time, but these should slacken quickly after sunset and as a cold front continues to pull away to our east. A fast moving area of low pressure is progged to move through the Tennessee Valley Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning.
Snow accumulations up to 1 inch is possible across the highest elevations, generally above 5kft. For Today, weak ridging aloft will keep conditions dry today with only areas of high level clouds over the region. For Tonight, an upper trough will move across the Gulf Coast states into the southeast. Model temperature profile suggest the highest elevations, generally above 4500 feet, will receive a wintry mix with snow accumulations up to 1 inch over the highest peaks.
400 AM EST Tue Mar 2 2021 High pressure will quickly build across the region today, then a storm system will move across the Gulf Coast and Southeast late tonight into Wednesday.
The upper low that was near El Paso yesterday at this time is now tracking across southern OK and will move into southern AR later today. Lots of March insolation is expected the next few days, thus odds are that blended guidance (NBM) is too cool and have leaned toward warmer MOS and ensemble median (NBM 50th percentile) guidance.
321 AM EST Tue Mar 2 2021 Short term (Today and Wednesday): Expansive upper level ridging over the southern Gulf of Mexico will continue to erode along it's northern periphery as compact closed low shifts eastward across the southern Plains today.
An area of low pressure will move south of the area today which may bring some cloud cover to areas along the Arkansas line, maybe even a sprinkle or two, but most areas will remain cloud free and dry. For tonight, morning lows will remain above the freezing mark for most with middle 30s common.
As we head into Wednesday, quasi-zonal upper level flow will encourage the continual warming temperature trend with morning lows above freezing and afternoon highs in the 60s.
While not a significant change, did adjust overnight lows to reflect a little more cloud cover and slightly warmer temps. Chattanooga Airport, TN 54 41 60 37 63 / 30 70 10 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 52 38 56 36 58 / 10 60 20 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 52 38 59 35 60 / 0 50 20 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 51 34 56 33 55 / 0 20 30 0 0.
Temperatures are quite a bit cooler than yesterday evening, mostly in the low to middle 40s. Rain will overspread the Midsouth again tomorrow as a upper level low tracks across South Arkansas into North Mississippi. /issued 537 PM CST Mon Mar 1 2021/ Surface analysis this afternoon indicates a cold front stretching from the Appalachians back through the Southeast United States and back along the Texas/Louisiana Gulf Coast. An upper level closed off low pressure system will start to approach the area Tuesday afternoon into the evening.
MRM VFR conditions will prevail as high pressure slides to the east of the region.
924 PM CST Mon Mar 1 2021 (Issued 922 PM CST Mon Mar 1 2021) High pressure is passing just south of the region this evening. Stumpf (Issued 200 PM CST Mon Mar 1 2021) Tonight through Tuesday: High pressure settles in with clear skies and light winds, so a chilly night in store. The high shifts to the Ohio Valley Tuesday as low pressure tracks north of Lake Superior.
Upper ridge will flatten through Tuesday, but conditions will remain dry with mostly clear skies. The upper ridge over the area will flatten out on Tuesday as a weak trough tracks along the US/Canada border. Wednesday remains dry, but will see increasing high cloud cover from a closed low tracking across southern CA into the Great Basin.
1033 PM CST Mon Mar 1 2021 (This evening through Tuesday) A weakening upper low was over far west Texas just northwest of Odessa this afternoon. The low will move northeast across the northern Big Country early tonight, and to The Red River near Sherman by 6 AM Tuesday. With north winds diminishing, expect temperatures to drop into the upper 20s to lower 30s for lows early Tuesday morning across the western half of our area, and into the lower to mid 30s in our far eastern counties.
Better moisture and lift still progged for tomorrow as upper level low moves toward the area driving large area of isentropic lift ahead of it. /Issued 250 PM EST Mon Mar 1 2021/ The short term period starts off with a cut-off low over NM/TX/OK, and near-zonal flow aloft across the CWA. For the rest of today, isolated light showers will be a possibility as moisture interacts with a cold front pushing through the area. Tuesday morning lows will be cooler than previous nights -- in the mid-30s to upper 40s.
348 AM EST Tue Mar 2 2021 High pressure over the Great Lakes will build overhead through tonight. Low pressure will pass well to the south Wednesday. A reinforcing cold front will cross the area Wednesday night.
Warmer conditions and lighter winds will persist through Tuesday.
High pressure is expected to hold over the area for the balance of the week. Expect clear and cold conditions overnight as high pressure spreads across the area. Generally quiet weather expected during this period, as heights rise in response to a developing long wave ridge over the Plains. At the surface, high pressure will slowly drift through the area. A cutoff low, currently moving into west Texas, is progged by the models to stay well to the south of the local area, undercutting the developing ridge. the ECMWF shows strong ridging in place across the the central Plains. emsemble cluster heights agree to strong ridging and above normal heights across Indiana and the Great Lakes through the period.
/Issued 938 PM CST Mon Mar 1 2021/ An upper low across far northern Texas will track east northeast across far southeast Oklahoma late tonight and Tuesday morning. A few light showers remain possible across parts of far southeast Oklahoma and western Arkansas late tonight and early Tuesday, and the potential does exist for a little bit of sleet and snow to mix in at the higher elevations.
High pressure passing by to our south will bring the snow showers to an end by this afternoon. This activity will end by afternoon as high pressure centered over the Ohio Valley passes by to our south. A warm front will move through the area tonight with some light snow possible east of Lake Ontario. Aloft, blocking upstream over Greenland will force an upper level low to send it's cold airmass back across our region, with snow forming on the leading edge of the cold air returning.
As of 06z, the cold front is draped along the coast and will continue to push out through the night. Conditions will gradually improve tomorrow as high pressure build into the forecast area. near 50 coast so quite a bit cooler than just a day ago. Temperatures on Tuesday will only warm to the mid 50s hampered by the cloud cover and over the west/southwestern areas where the clouds clear earlier highs could reach the lower 60s.
938 PM CST Mon Mar 1 2021 An upper low across far northern Texas will track east northeast across far southeast Oklahoma late tonight and Tuesday morning. A few light showers remain possible across parts of far southeast Oklahoma and western Arkansas late tonight and early Tuesday, and the potential does exist for a little bit of sleet and snow to mix in at the higher elevations.
Expect a welcomed dry stretch through Tuesday evening as high pressure builds in across the Ohio Valley. Latest surface analysis places the cold front east of Kentucky with a 1033mb high pressure center noted over the Northern Plains and Upper MS Valley. Southern KY will see an increase in clouds Tuesday afternoon as an upper low tracks eastward across the Gulf States. Low-amplitude split flow is expected for much of the coming week, with broad eastern CONUS trofiness and a suppressed southern stream. Could see a modest cooling trend over the weekend, as the upper trof over eastern Canada deepens just enough to keep a southern stream disturbance nicely suppressed.
256 AM CST Tue Mar 2 2021 Modest westerly flow aloft will develop across the Plains the next couple days as upstream ridge amplifies over the Rockies ahead of a vigorous upper low approaching California. Warmer southwesterly low level flow today will send temperatures above 60F across the area with the warmest and driest air across central Kansas.
246 AM CST Tue Mar 2 2021 Well we finally have a completely dry forecast for today and tonight with an upper low passing well to our south.
The limiting factor is the low level stability, which is lacking w/ surface temps in the low 40s. Upper level ridge will continue to keep our region dry/warm today and Wednesday.
1009 PM MST Mon Mar 1 2021 A large scale ridge pattern encompassed areas from the High Plains westward.