Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
157 PM MST Sat Dec 3 2022 Across the Tri State region this afternoon, skies are a partly to mostly sunny mix as a veil of high cloud continues to shift east off the Rockies, with some anchored to the east side of a trough stretching across east-central Colorado. With high pressure east, and the trough west, there is a tight south-southwesterly gradient with gusts 25-35 mph.
(Today) The strong cold front has pushed through all of the forecast area early this morning, with strong and gusty northerly winds persisting.
953 AM MST Sat Dec 3 2022 Latest upper air analysis shows a ridge moving over the Great Basin with a trough over the Plains. Satellite imagery shows cloud cover moving through the ridge toward the Plains. Due to the cooler airmass present, highs will be cooler than yesterday, only warming into the 40s. Both factors will cause lows to be warmer than last night. Sunday the upper level ridge will move over the forecast area. At the surface a high pressure will move through. The WAA will cause temperatures to be warmer than today.
(This afternoon through Sunday) The cold front is situated just north of I-59/20, and surface winds are becoming northwesterly across our far northern counties. This activity will continue to fade through the afternoon as forcing wanes while the trough pulls further north through Hudson Bay. Cold air advection will result in cooler temperatures across the north where overnight temperatures will fall into the lower 30s with mid 50s southeast near the front. The front will meander along the Gulf Coast tomorrow with cooler air residing across our north.
1142 AM CST Sat Dec 3 2022 (Today) The strong cold front has pushed through all of the forecast area early this morning, with strong and gusty northerly winds persisting.
(Rest of today through Sunday) Models depict a very broad and deep high pressure dome spreading across much of the region and into the west Atlantic waters, gradually migrating eastward. As the ridge axis moves away from the area, pressure gradients will continue to decrease and allow for the breezy ENE winds to gradually subside through tomorrow. Nighttime temperatures will again drop into the lower-mid inland, and upper 60s to around 70 along the coasts.
By providing some insulation in spots, Sunday morning lows are a bit warmer than today in the middle and upper 20s. Mid level ridge axis across the Inter Mountain west amplifies this evening while an embedded southern stream vort max develops precip across Oklahoma tomorrow.
Colder air has also filtered in behind a cold front, which means temps this afternoon are only in the teens to low 20s, with wind chills in the single digits above and below zero. Winds will subside a bit and become less gusty, but remain steady from the west since the high is south of the state (as supposed to overhead). Flow backs to the southwest resulting in temperatures about 10 degrees warmer than today; highs in the middle 20s to middle 30s.
Radar and satellite show some light snow bands across western Colorado, which should spread into our part of the high country over the next couple of hours. Another 110 kt upper level jet max will lift northward across the state this afternoon, bringing with it a chance of light snow in the high country. Gusty westerly winds coupled with the snow will produce areas of blowing over the high mountain passes. Light accumulations will be possible over the higher west facing slopes starting around midday and lingering into the early evening. For tonight, light snow will diminish over the mountains as weak ridge aloft builds over CO. On Sunday there will be weak ridging aloft with a moderate westerly flow aloft.
1255 PM EST Sat Dec 3 2022 A cold front will cross the area this morning. High pressure will build in tonight and remain into Sunday night. A cold front was nearing our eastern CWFA this morning. Temperatures will fall into the 30s to the lower 40s. High pressure will build into the region tonight and remain through Sunday. Temperatures will be cold with lows in the lower to mid 20s and highs in the upper 30s to lower 40s. Cirrus does start building in latter overnight with the high shifting east, but this has minimal impact on sensible weather.
(This evening through Sunday) Despite plenty of sun, chilly high pressure continued to dominate much of the region this afternoon with temps of 25-30F cooler than this time yesterday. As surface ridging relaxes this evening and departs east, modest isentropic ascent and some Fn from 850-700mb will focus to our north along the I-40 corridor. Lows tonight fortunately will be above freezing area wide thanks to thick clouds and southerly breezes.
For Sunday, warmer temperatures are in the forecast as winds shift to the southwest just long enough to allow highs to climb into the 20s. Winds at the H5 level will have a source region in the North Slope of Alaska, and will dive southward; simultaneously, blocking to the east of Greenland is expected to strengthen, sending the aforementioned Arctic air mass southward overnight Sunday.
(Tonight through Sunday night) The cold front has pushed south into the Coastal Plains and Winter Garden region. Highs in the low to mid 60s are forecast, possibly remaining in the upper 50s in some areas of the Hill Country.
1234 PM EST Sat Dec 3 2022 Cooler and drier air push in tonight behind a cold front.
1032 AM EST Sat Dec 3 2022 Dry high pressure will ridge across the area for the next several days as a frontal boundary settles across northern FL. Ridging over the waters will keep E/NE winds in place generally at or below 15kts through the period.
1137 AM CST Sat Dec 3 2022 (Today and tonight) Gusty north winds in the wake of the cold front will subside quickly today as the center of the ridge of the cooler, drier air mass moves across Oklahoma. In fact, winds will become light southeasterly this afternoon in western Oklahoma behind the high pressure ridge.
Cold air will remain in place this morning, with warmer air on the way. Northwesterly flow will continue at 500mb, becoming a bit more zonal Sunday afternoon as a ridge over MT/WY flattens out the broad trough extending from the large Hudson Bay low. This ridge will only slowly shift into MN through the remainder of the morning hours, while lingering over our far northeastern counties. Southerly winds and warmer air will be slower to get into our MN counties today. The lowest relative humidity values will be over Jones and Lyman Counties of central SD.
/21 (Now through Sunday) A warm and moist southerly to southwesterly flow will prevail across the region this afternoon well in advance of a cold front currently making its way across north central MS and northern AL. A weak area of ascent ahead of the approaching boundary and along the associated pre-frontal trough has resulted in the development of scattered rain showers over southeast MS and interior southwest AL this morning and early this afternoon. Warm/moist advection will be favorable for the development of areas of dense fog along the cooler waters of Mobile Bay, the Mississippi Sound, Perdido Bay, and portions of the adjacent Gulf out to 20 nm later this afternoon and into this evening. Fog should lift following the passage of the cold front late tonight.
1259 PM EST Sat Dec 3 2022 High pressure will ridge across the area for the next several days as a frontal boundary stalls across north FL Sunday. Drier high pressure then builds over the state for the end of the week as another frontal boundary passes by to the north.
The attached cold front, is approaching our area from the west/northwest. Despite increasing clouds, the observed temperatures have been are a few degrees warmer than expected, especially closer to the coast where there either nearing or exceeding the 80 degree mark. ) Therefore, we bumped up the high temperature forecast for most locations, more noticeably closer to the coast, and reran the diurnal temperature trends. Also, with the temperatures being warmer, winds are higher with more gusts. The aforementioned cold front will slowly folding down through southeast SC and southeast GA later tonight into Sunday morning.
147 PM EST Sat Dec 3 2022 Cooler and drier air push in tonight behind a cold front.
Upper air pattern consists of a closed 500 mb low off the Pacific NW Coast and a broad trough over the Great Lakes region with a ridge along the Gulf Coast 12z Sun. The low comes onshore 12z Mon and then heads south towards central CA by 00z Wed while troughing remains over the Great Lakes. In the extended, the GFS and ECMWF show a trough in the desert sw and a trough in the upper Mississippi River Valley 12z Wed. GFS and ECMWF show a trough in the western U. with the GFS most amplified 12z Fri and the ECMWF having some troughing also in the Rockies.
Clear skies and light winds with this high should allow temperatures to fall back into the teens in most areas outside of the city tonight.
The sounding also sampled rising geopotential heights below 500 mb, as low-level ridging continues to build across the island chain. From synopsis, an elongated ridge stretching from the North Atlantic southwest across the southeastern U.
The heaviest would likely be from afternoon into evening when the trough axis swings through and the better jet dynamics move into the area.
541 PM CST Sat Dec 3 2022 (This evening through Sunday) A 1030mb area of high pressure will settle in across Oklahoma and north Texas this evening, allowing winds to become light and variable. Meanwhile, the cold front that went through the state will come to a halt in northern Mexico. By sunrise, skies will be overcast area- wide, which should allow temperatures to only fall into the low to mid 40s. Although temperatures are forecast to reach the low 60s, it will take all day to reach these highs.
Windy conditions, associated the passage of a strong low pressure, system will continue for elevations above 3000 feet. Most areas will be dry tonight; with exception of locations north of I-80, where upper troughing and lake enhancement may support a mix of rain and snow showers. Dry weather should persist through Sunday, with clouds clearing, as the center of high pressure skirts south of the forecast area. Below- normal temperature will continue via upper troughing.
Issued at 245 CST Sat Dec 3 2022 Cold air advection on northwest winds behind a cold front have kept temperatures fairly steady despite increasing sunshine today. Winds should become nearly calm as a high pressure ridge parks over the area overnight. Forecast soundings show any precip that develops will have a lot of dry air to contend with, but nevertheless a brief mix of snow/sleet/freezing rain is possible before midday Sunday. During the day Sunday the low level ridge shifts to the east and local flow shifts back to the south.
Almost all of the precipitation is expected to be rain, although you do have the extremely minimal potential that enough precipitation falls and the temperature wet bulbs down to around 32F, that some freezing rain may develop. As mentioned before, the potential for any freezing rain is extremely low (so low it's been left out of the forecast), and on the offchance some ice develops, impacts should be negligible.
527 PM CST Sat Dec 3 2022 Key Messages - Calmer and cooler conditions expected today. Many areas saw highs in the low 60s whereas today highs looks to barely reach 60-75 percent of that only cresting in the low to mid 30s. As the high slides further east, southerly flow on the west side of the anticyclone once again pushes temperatures back into the 50s.
(This afternoon through Sunday) Pre-frontal trough is currently pushing precip across the ATL metro into central Georgia this afternoon.
1038mb arctic high pressure centered over KS-MO this afternoon will continue to drift east tonight through Sunday night. Southwest winds circulating around the high will become weak tonight as a weak low pressure trof forms across Nebraska.
A strong cold front has cleared the CWA this afternoon leaving breezy northwest winds and much cooler temperatures in its wake. Winds will gradually begin to relax going into the evening hours as the boundary layer decouples and high pressure nudges in from the west. High pressure slowly drifts eastward tomorrow, and light southerly return flow should begin to pick up by the afternoon.
319 PM CST Sat Dec 3 2022 1038mb arctic high pressure centered over KS-MO this afternoon will continue to drift east tonight through Sunday night. Southwest winds circulating around the high will become weak tonight as a weak low pressure trof forms across Nebraska.
Temperatures on Sunday will climb into the 30s ahead of the cold front dropping in from the north.
Even if valley rainfall remain at moderate accumulation, orographic support will enhance mountain snow ahead of the cold front expected on Sunday. Even with precipitation tapering off behind Sundayâs cold front passage, the pattern will remain unsettled. While some clearing has been observed, instability indices show the most unstable air closer to the cold front to the northwest of the district. Convection potential may be slightly high on Sunday in a post cold front environment.
Upper air pattern consists of a closed 500 mb low off the Pacific NW Coast and a broad trough over the Great Lakes region with a ridge along the Gulf Coast 12z Sun. The low comes onshore 12z Mon and then heads south towards central CA by 00z Wed while troughing remains over the Great Lakes. In the extended, the GFS and ECMWF show a trough in the desert sw and a trough in the upper Mississippi River Valley 12z Wed. GFS and ECMWF show a trough in the western U. with the GFS most amplified 12z Fri and the ECMWF having some troughing also in the Rockies. With drier air at the low-levels dominating during this fcst period, VFR will prevail at IWD/SAW into Sun evening.
At the surface, weak high pressure will remain over the region tonight, with WAA developing ahead of an approaching frontal boundary on Sunday. Northwesterly to westerly upper-level flow is anticipated through the first half of the upcoming work-week, due to upper-level troughing centered across central Canada. Being near the base of this trough, the core of the cold air should stay north of the CWA.
GAH AFTERNOON DISCUSSION: Slight ridging continues to build over Montana through Sunday AM, allowing southwesterly surface winds to increase temperatures into the 20s north of the Missouri River and 30s in the southern zones of the CWA that afternoon. Meanwhile, a trough off the US West Coast will move onshore and across Montana which will bring in the next round of snow chances.
Expect lows tonight in the upper teens and lower 20s, and highs Sunday in the lower to mid 40s.
Winds across the higher terrain will remain breezy to windy in the afternoons with breezy westerly winds spreading into the adjacent I-25 corridor into a deepening surface lee trough on Sunday. Low temperatures tonight will be relatively mild, warmest along the southern I-25 corridor where the surface lee trough strengthens. Bouts of mid/high level cloudiness will keep temperatures slightly warmer all other areas. High temperatures for Sunday will rebound back into the 50s across the lower elevations with a 40s for the valleys and 20s and 30s for the high country.
639 PM EST Sat Dec 3 2022 Cooler and drier air push in tonight behind a cold front.
634 PM CST Sat Dec 3 2022 (This afternoon through Sunday) The cold front is situated just north of I-59/20, and surface winds are becoming northwesterly across our far northern counties. This activity will continue to fade through the afternoon as forcing wanes while the trough pulls further north through Hudson Bay. Cold air advection will result in cooler temperatures across the north where overnight temperatures will fall into the lower 30s with mid 50s southeast near the front. The front will meander along the Gulf Coast tomorrow with cooler air residing across our north.
Overnight temperatures will be near the low to mid 70s. By mid-week another high pressure will build in the western Atlantic and cause breezes to freshen.
* None Broad mid level confluence and large scale subsidence in the wake of this mornings short wave and sfc cold frontal passage is allowing high pressure to expand across the Mid and Upper Mississippi Valley. While this system will drive arctic air into the northern plains and northern Great Lakes, strengthening mid level ridging across the golf coastal region will keep the low level baroclinic zone relatively stationary across the Great Lakes, with Se Mi located within the warmer thermal profiles.
544 PM CST Sat Dec 3 2022 (This evening through Sunday night) Current satellite observations show a large area of high pressure over the Gulf of Mexico well into parts of Texas and Mexico in the mid to upper levels. Upstream is a closed low just off the coast of the Pacific Northwest. Areas in the TX Panhandle where the higher PoPs are may still only get between 0.
322 PM MST Sat Dec 3 2022 Across the Tri State region this afternoon, skies are a partly to mostly sunny mix as a veil of high cloud continues to shift east off the Rockies, with some anchored to the east side of a trough stretching across east-central Colorado. With high pressure east, and the trough west, there is a tight south-southwesterly gradient with gusts 25-35 mph.
623 PM EST Sat Dec 3 2022 Cooler and drier air push in tonight behind a cold front.
High pressure, which is currently situated over eastern Kansas, has brought some much calmer winds to the region compared to earlier this morning. chilly once again tonight, with dry conditions continuing High pressure will remain in control over the region through the overnight hours, leading to another chilly night tonight. Sunday highs are forecast to be warmer compared to today, with the southerly return flow around the high pressure system.
WIDESPREAD SNOW AND POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN WILL IMPACT Strong valley temperature inversions will remain in place across the Northern Rockies tonight. Stratus and freezing fog, most prominent across northwest Montana, will complicate how temperatures may cool tonight.
For now the forecast lows still look alright since they're 10-15 degrees warmer than last night. Gusty winds across the higher peaks will continue overnight, with some blowing snow possible - generally above 10,000 feet or so. Overnight lows will fall into the 10s or 20s for most of the high country and plains, with slightly warmer conditions in the lower foothills and urban corridor. Temperatures will remain mild over the region with highs back into 50s for the plains and 30s to 40s over the higher elevations.
518 PM CST Sat Dec 3 2022 (This evening through Sunday) Despite plenty of sun, chilly high pressure continued to dominate much of the region this afternoon with temps of 25-30F cooler than this time yesterday. As surface ridging relaxes this evening and departs east, modest isentropic ascent and some Fn from 850-700mb will focus to our north along the I-40 corridor. Lows tonight fortunately will be above freezing area wide thanks to thick clouds and southerly breezes.
Gusty winds across the higher peaks will continue overnight, with some blowing snow possible - generally above 10,000 feet or so. Overnight lows will fall into the 10s or 20s for most of the high country and plains, with slightly warmer conditions in the lower foothills and urban corridor. Temperatures will remain mild over the region with highs back into 50s for the plains and 30s to 40s over the higher elevations.
906 PM EST Sat Dec 3 2022 High pressure centered near St Louis this evening will slide eastward into the Ohio Valley tonight, providing us with light breezes and chilly temperatures. A strong cold front has cleared the CWA this afternoon leaving breezy northwest winds and much cooler temperatures in its wake. Winds will gradually begin to relax going into the evening hours as the boundary layer decouples and high pressure nudges in from the west. High pressure slowly drifts eastward tomorrow, and light southerly return flow should begin to pick up by the afternoon.
302 PM CST Sat Dec 3 2022 Key Messages - Calmer and cooler conditions expected today. Many areas saw highs in the low 60s whereas today highs looks to barely reach 60-75 percent of that only cresting in the low to mid 30s. As the high slides further east, southerly flow on the west side of the anticyclone once again pushes temperatures back into the 50s.
633 PM EST Sat Dec 3 2022 High pressure will build east into the Ohio Valley tonight. The high will extend across the region on Sunday. High pressure will build east into the Ohio Valley tonight. Lows will range from the upper teens to the lower 20s. High pressure will extend across the region on Sunday. Given a cold start and neutral advection, temperatures will only warm into the upper 30s to the lower 40s. For Sunday night, the high will move east of the region.
527 PM CST Sat Dec 3 2022 (This afternoon through Sunday night) The strong cold front that moved into the area early this morning has already reached the Rio Grande, with breezy northeasterly winds and much cooler temperatures in its wake.
248 PM MST Sat Dec 3 2022 Slight ridging continues to build over Montana through Sunday AM, allowing southwesterly surface winds to increase temperatures into the 20s north of the Missouri River and 30s in the southern zones of the CWA that afternoon. Meanwhile, a trough off the US West Coast will move onshore and across Montana which will bring in the next round of snow chances.
528 PM CST Sat Dec 3 2022 (Tonight through Sunday night) The cold front has pushed south into the Coastal Plains and Winter Garden region. Highs in the low to mid 60s are forecast, possibly remaining in the upper 50s in some areas of the Hill Country.
903 PM EST Sat Dec 3 2022 Behind a strong cold front, dry and colder conditions will filter in tonight.
Totals in this area still range from 1 to 3 inches with local amounts of 4 inches in SE Oregon and the lower Treasure Valley. Model soundings continue to show a wedge of above freezing air aloft in these areas while near surface temperatures remain below freezing. This profile would lead to freezing rain which remains in the forecast and highlighted in the Advisory. Local freezing rain possible before 04/18z.
High pressure remains in place with generally light winds and partly to mostly clear sky conditions. This is already occurring across northern locations, generally from Titusville northward, where the highest potential for patchy, locally dense fog is expected to unfold overnight.
1122 PM CST Sat Dec 3 2022 Midevening GOES IR imagery showed increasing high clouds spreading into the Midsouth, as high altitude subtropical moisture spilled over an upstream ridge axis over the southern high plains. 00Z SGF and LZK soundings were very dry under the high level moisture, with precipitable water values of 0. Light precip is expected toward midday Sunday, likely aided by the right rear entrance region of a 125kt 250mb jet max over the lower Ohio Valley.
Overnight composite analysis reveals elongated upper level high pressure across the Gulf of Mexico and Deep South. along the far southern periphery of a deep closed low over Hudson Bay. Temperatures today will be a little cooler than Saturdays very warm readings, but still range from the middle 60s to the lower 70s which is still at or even a little above normal.
1122 PM CST Sat Dec 3 2022 (This afternoon through Sunday night) The strong cold front that moved into the area early this morning has already reached the Rio Grande, with breezy northeasterly winds and much cooler temperatures in its wake.
1242 AM EST Sun Dec 4 2022 Cooler and drier air push in tonight behind a cold front.
Ahead of the next cold front, west to southwesterly winds will help usher in 850mb temperatures mainly in the single digits above zero by mid afternoon.
High pressure was centered over the Mid Mississippi and Ohio Valley region. Fairly light winds near the high and a very dry air mass has allowed temps to fall into the teens to lower 20s locally. Steady southwest winds will advect slightly warmer air into the region today as high pressure shifts through the Ohio Valley. This increases the likelihood of rain and snow as low pressure systems track across the dvn cwa.