Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
818 PM EDT Mon Sep 9 2019 An upper ridge over the region will help produce above normal temperatures through the week. Only a few locations will have diurnal showers and thunderstorms because of the ridging. Believe scattered showers and thunderstorms in the southeast section will dissipate this evening because of the loss of heating and upper ridging. The temperature guidance was close with lows in the lower and middle 70s. An upper ridge builds across the region this week, which will keep temperatures well above normal with highs mainly in the mid 90s.
1045 PM EDT Mon Sep 9 2019 An upper level ridge of high pressure will continue to build into the Ohio Valley tonight. The ridge will remain in place on Tuesday.
This ridge has strengthened during the past 24 hours, bringing the strongest easterly flow we have seen in quite a while into the Keys. Aloft, the combination of a weak mid/upper level low east of the Bahamas and a building ridge over the Southeastern states is driving a very dry airmass for this time of year southward into the Bahamas and toward the Keys. Otherwise, expect mostly clear to partly cloudy skies overnight, with temperatures only dropping into the lower 80s, as breezy east winds continue.
619 PM CDT Mon Sep 9 2019 A large upper trough continued to make its way into the northwest corner of the country today, with southwesterly flow persisting over the central plains. A the surface, a low pressure system moved across South Dakota, dragging a weak cold front through the forecast area. We could see an uptick in intensity and coverage again late this evening and into the overnight hours as the low level jet increases. The best chance at thunderstorm initiation for northern portions of the forecast area will likely be during the evening hours as the low level jet once again enhances convective development.
618 PM CDT Mon Sep 9 2019 Satellite imagery this afternoon shows a rather progressive pattern in place across the Nation, with a ridge axis just east of the Mississippi River, and a series of troughs digging into the Pacific Northwest. Also of note, the Pacific Northwest trough has developed a lee side low across the Northern Plains --currently seen shifting into South Dakota, lifting a warm front into Iowa today-- which allowed for the rapid development of a southwest flow across the Plains States. CAM models all point at the storms in the northwest corner lingering well past sunrise Tuesday morning as the jet keeps going ahead of the broader trough out west.
The ridge is also helping to keep a lid on convection across central and eastern Missouri into Illinois this afternoon. The surface and upper level ridges are expected to drift eastward through Tuesday night, and there may be a corresponding increase in the probability of convection. Temperatures tomorrow morning should be warmer in the low to mid 70s due to the increased moisture and southerly flow, and highs Tuesday afternoon will likely hit the low 90s almost everywhere again. Again, there looks to be little forcing for nocturnal convection Tuesday night with the low level jet focused over the Plains and Upper Midwest.
Tomorrow should be similar to today with the exception of the upper trough across the Pacific Northwest moving closer to the FA.
Isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop as a moist airmass and highs in the lower to mid 90s pool instability along and near it. Cloud cover and convection despite 925 mb temperatures between 25 and 26 degrees should keep highs a tad cooler in the lower to mid 90s. Heat index values though will range from 100 to 104 degrees with dewpoints expected to be in the lower 70s.
746 PM CDT Mon Sep 9 2019 The subtropical ridge maintains a strong influence over the Mid- South this evening. A few storms developed along the western periphery of the ridge where moisture was deeper and subsidence weaker. Elsewhere across the Mid-South sunny skies prevails with temps in the lower to mid 90s and heat index values from the upper 90s into the lower 100s.
The main story continues to be very hot and humid wx this week under a building dome of high pressure.
532 PM MDT Mon Sep 9 2019 Current surface map places low over central South Dakota, with trof extending back into eastern Montana. Upper trof currently over the western CONUS will slowly move into the plains for the middle of the week. with warm front/instability gradient setting up along the South Dakota/Nebraska border.
952 PM EDT Mon Sep 9 2019 An upper ridge over the region will help produce above normal temperatures through the week. Only a few locations will have diurnal showers and thunderstorms because of the ridging. More dominate upper ridging to the west plus nocturnal cooling should help prevent showers and thunderstorms elsewhere. The temperature guidance was close with lows in the lower and middle 70s. An upper ridge builds across the region this week, which will keep temperatures well above normal with highs mainly in the mid 90s.
The high resolution guidance continues to develop convection from northwest Kansas into the forecast area.
Ridge axis lifts north of the area providing a more easterly flow in the low levels. Easterly flow should help keep temperatures a couple of degrees "cooler" with upper 80s/near 90 along the coast and low 90s inland.
Updated at 330 PM EDT Mon Sep 9 2019 High pressure at the surface and aloft spells big bubble, no trouble for this forecast issuance. Overnight lows tonight will be in the lower to mid 60s - up a few degrees from this morning. With the warmer start to the day, temperatures will rise to the mid 90s by Tuesday afternoon under blue skies.
Visible satellite imagery this afternoon shows orographically induced cumulus fields over the higher terrain with scattered high clouds passing through much of the region. The broad upper trough positioned over the western U. The most potent system within the trough currently sits off the Washington coast with eventual southeastward acceleration toward southern Oregon/northeastern California by Tuesday. Most notably, high-resolution models show meager instability aloft (weak 700-500 mb lapse rates) while the best lift with the trough only grazes interior northern California.
505 PM MDT Mon Sep 9 2019 A drier airmass behind the upper trough will keep showers at bay the rest of the afternoon and evening. Upper level winds will transition from westerly to more southwesterly as the next trough digs into the inter-mountain west. The trough strengthens and deepens as it moves over the Great Basin Tuesday.
/Issued 351 PM CDT Mon Sep 9 2019/ An upper level low can be seen on water vapor imagery spinning over South Texas this afternoon. Models are in good agreement with the low slowing moving west and stalling over South Texas through mid week. With the low to our west on Tuesday, moisture on the east side of the low will increase with PWATS around 2 inches. South Texas will be in an area of increased vorticity between the upper low to the west and an upper level ridge over the southeastern US. Temperatures will be near normal, in the low to mid 90s.
Cool showery weather will give way to weak high pressure for the middle of the week.
The trough that brought the rainfall has moved off to the north leaving the area in fairly zonal flow.
1044 PM EDT Mon Sep 9 2019 An upper ridge over the region will help produce above normal temperatures through the week. Only a few locations will have diurnal showers and thunderstorms because of the ridging. More dominate upper ridging to the west plus nocturnal cooling should help prevent showers and thunderstorms elsewhere. The temperature guidance was close with lows in the lower and middle 70s. An upper ridge builds across the region this week, which will keep temperatures well above normal with highs mainly in the mid 90s.
1037 PM EDT Mon Sep 9 2019 Aviation section updated Ridging will build over the area for the next few days, bringing warmer temperatures to the area.
/issued 259 PM CDT Mon Sep 9 2019/ Tonight and Tuesday) The upper high will remain centered over the Mid-Atlantic and southeast states through Tuesday, as an upper trough continues to develop across the western CONUS. Also, a weak upper low currently situated between Brownsville and Corpus Christi, will track northwest towards the area the next 24 hours and bring a chance for some scattered showers and a few thunderstorms to the area. By tomorrow afternoon, should see a little better coverage of showers and thunderstorms across the southern half of the forecast area as the weak upper low moves into western portions of the Texas South Plains and Hill Country. Temperatures will also be cooler and closer to normal tomorrow due to more cloud cover, with highs in the upper 80s and lower 90s.
High temperatures on Tuesday will be in the low to mid 90s. When combined with dewpoints in the low to mid 70s, heat indices will range from 98 to 105 degrees.
Went and took pops down today to around 20%, and shifted the higher pops to hug our southeastern border.
749 PM EDT Mon Sep 9 2019 High pressure will remain in control of the weather across the TN Valley through the forecast period, maintaing VFR conditions at all sites.
Some areas of the southwest, where westerly winds have cleared out the lower clouds, were reporting fog.
619 PM EDT Mon Sep 9 2019 An upper ridge over the region will help produce above normal temperatures through the week. Only a few locations will have diurnal showers and thunderstorms because of the ridging. Believe scattered showers and thunderstorms in the southeast section will dissipate this evening because of the loss of heating and upper ridging. The temperature guidance was close with lows in the lower and middle 70s. An upper ridge builds across the region this week, which will keep temperatures well above normal with highs mainly in the mid 90s.
An approaching cold front will bring gusty onshore winds and cooler temperatures tonight and into Tuesday.
252 AM MDT Tue Sep 10 2019 Southwesterly flow will increase today as an upper level low drops southward into the western CONUS. Surface dewpoints will climb into the lower to mid-60s to the south of the front with southeasterly winds pushing the dewpoints north of the front into the 50s. Very large hail and damaging wind gusts are possible this afternoon and evening with a chance for tornadoes in the area of enhanced shear near the warm front.
Best chances will likely be where the theta-e axis develops out ahead of the trough associated with Pacific Low currently working its way south out of Washington state.
Broad troughing continues across the western states of the CONUS, with upper level ridging over the southeastern U. , and a weak upper low just south of our area. (Wednesday through Tuesday) A weaker ridge across the area will allow for an isolated thunderstorm to develop across the area through the end of the week. Temperatures will remain in the low to mid 90s across most of the area through the end of the week.
1118 PM MDT Mon Sep 9 2019 Current surface map places low over central South Dakota, with trof extending back into eastern Montana. Upper trof currently over the western CONUS will slowly move into the plains for the middle of the week. with warm front/instability gradient setting up along the South Dakota/Nebraska border. Upper low closes off near the MT/SD/ND border Wednesday with widespread showers/thunderstorms.
427 AM EDT Tue Sep 10 2019 A warm front will cross east through the Great Lakes region, keeping a warm and humid airmass over the Ohio Valley through the end of the work week.
445 AM EDT Tue Sep 10 2019 High pressure at the surface and aloft will ridge across the area through mid-week.
157 AM EDT Tue Sep 10 2019 An upper level ridge of high pressure will continue to build into the Ohio Valley tonight. The ridge will remain in place on Tuesday. Chances of showers and thunderstorms will return Wednesday into the end of the week as the ridge slowly flattens and another weather systems makes its way east into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. A mid level ridge will continue to build northward into our region tonight. Temperatures will be slightly milder tonight with lows from the upper 50s northeast to the lower/middle 60s southwest. Mid level ridge will extend into the area Tuesday. Never the less surface temperatures look to warm to highs from the upper 80s north to the lower 90s south of the Ohio River.
1133 PM MDT Mon Sep 9 2019 A drier airmass behind the upper trough will keep showers at bay the rest of the afternoon and evening. Upper level winds will transition from westerly to more southwesterly as the next trough digs into the inter-mountain west. The trough strengthens and deepens as it moves over the Great Basin Tuesday. Precipitation chances start to decrease south to north and west to east late Wednesday afternoon into the evening as the trough slides over the northern Rockies. Drier and cooler air will intrude behind the trough.
421 AM EDT Tue Sep 10 2019 Under partly cloudy skies with a steady east wind of 10 to 15 mph with occasional gusts near 20 mph, temperatures are holding in the lower 80s along the Florida Keys. An expansive high pressure cell extending from just offshore of the Northeast United States coast, southwestward down the eastern seaboard, will strengthen resulting in a deepening and strengthening easterly flow below 700 mb. With our region lying on the southern periphery of the large anticyclone, a couple of subtle low level undulations associated with higher moisture along with weak large scale ascent will prompt spells of above average pops for the next several days.
946 PM PDT Mon Sep 9 2019 Cooler than average weather through Wednesday.
A weather disturbance will move across the region through Wednesday bringing cooler temperatures, breezy conditions, and a chance of showers and storms to northern Arizona.
Went and took pops down today to around 20%, and shifted the higher pops to hug our southeastern border. Tuesday, an upper level trough will deepen and push it's way from the west coast over Colorado, lining up southwest of our area, centered on WFO PUB's area by Wednesday night.
High temperatures will top out in the upper 80s across the higher elevations to the mid 90s elsewhere.
116 AM EDT Tue Sep 10 2019 An upper ridge over the region will help produce above normal temperatures through the week. Only a few locations will have diurnal showers and thunderstorms because of the ridging. Upper ridge will build north today towards the southern Appalachians and over much of our forecast area (FA), and will act to keep diurnal convective coverage to a minimum. However, an upper impulse will move clockwise around the ridge center down the coast. Upper ridge will provide above normal max temps again today. An upper ridge builds across the region this week, which will keep temperatures well above normal with highs mainly in the mid 90s. The upper ridge strengthens slightly on Wednesday, which may provide enough of an inversion to cap convection, so have kept the forecast hot and dry.
The main threat for thunderstorms will likely be in southwest North Dakota, as development will be southwest of the forecast area with the center of the low. High temperatures today will range from the low 60s north, where cloud cover will be persistent throughout the day, to the low 70s south, where there should be some clearing before the precipitation moves in. Expect scattered showers to continue into Wednesday, becoming more consistent as the day goes on as the low moves east.
An upper trough moving into the Pacific NW will support isolated showers over e-central Oregon and portions of southwest Idaho early Tuesday morning. An upper level low will move across the area in the short term. As the axis of the upper low passes by early Wed morning, showers will decrease in our Oregon zones. The West Central and Boise mountains, along with the higher terrain south of the Snake River, will see the bulk of the activity Wed afternoon. High temps will remain below normal by about 10 degrees through Wed, while low temps will be just a couple of degrees cooler than normal.
Upper low pressure over the region will keep showers and isolated thunderstorms over the area through Tuesday.
For today, upper ridge will continue to build into the southern Appalachians with unseasonably warm temperatures being the result. Will include low chance PoPs for mainly the higher elevations from mid-afternoon through early evening.
In the upper levels a ridge is over the Southeast today. At the surface weak high pressure is over the region. Lows will be in the lower 70s. Although the center of the upper level ridge slowly lifts northward through the period, deep layer ridging will remain across the southeast CONUS. Highs will be in the low to mid 90s with peak heat indices mostly in the 100 to 105 degree range. Lows will be in the lower to mid 70s.
1156 PM CDT Mon Sep 9 2019 A large upper trough continued to make its way into the northwest corner of the country today, with southwesterly flow persisting over the central plains. A the surface, a low pressure system moved across South Dakota, dragging a weak cold front through the forecast area. We could see an uptick in intensity and coverage again late this evening and into the overnight hours as the low level jet increases. The best chance at thunderstorm initiation for northern portions of the forecast area will likely be during the evening hours as the low level jet once again enhances convective development. This system will drag a cold front through the area, brining increasing shower and thunderstorm chances Wednesday evening and Wednesday night.
/issued 746 PM CDT Mon Sep 9 2019/ The subtropical ridge maintains a strong influence over the Mid- South this evening. A few storms developed along the western periphery of the ridge where moisture was deeper and subsidence weaker. Elsewhere across the Mid-South sunny skies prevails with temps in the lower to mid 90s and heat index values from the upper 90s into the lower 100s.
1203 AM CDT Tue Sep 10 2019 Satellite imagery this afternoon shows a rather progressive pattern in place across the Nation, with a ridge axis just east of the Mississippi River, and a series of troughs digging into the Pacific Northwest. Also of note, the Pacific Northwest trough has developed a lee side low across the Northern Plains --currently seen shifting into South Dakota, lifting a warm front into Iowa today-- which allowed for the rapid development of a southwest flow across the Plains States. CAM models all point at the storms in the northwest corner lingering well past sunrise Tuesday morning as the jet keeps going ahead of the broader trough out west.
319 AM EDT Tue Sep 10 2019 An upper ridge over the region will help produce above normal temperatures through the week. Only a few locations will have diurnal showers and thunderstorms because of the ridging. Upper ridge will build north today towards the southern Appalachians and over much of our forecast area (FA), and will act to keep diurnal convective coverage to a minimum. However, an upper impulse will move clockwise around the ridge center down the coast. Upper ridge will provide above normal max temps again today.
Temperatures were in the lower to middle 60s across much of the region. The typical urban centers were a bit warmer with lower 70s being reported. For today, high pressure at the surface and aloft will keep our weather rater quiet for this morning and into the afternoon hours.
will end up in the QPF min during the overnight with higher amounts over Lake Superior where the low level jet will be focused and to the south and east where there is more instability and more convective precipitation expected. The trailing weak cold front will sag slowly southward across the U. With the warm front just north of the area on Tuesday. The trend for the middle of this week will be to remain on the cooler side of normal, with cloud cover moderating temps. Strong winds off the surface will cause wind shear during the overnight hours when the low level jet is maximized at IWD and SAW. With low pressure approaching from the west tonight expect a short period of marginal south and southeasterly gales over eastern Lake Superior overnight tonight.
The story for the rest of this week will be the heat as an upper level ridge takes over. BNA saw 95 for a high yesterday and we should see at least that, if not a degree or two warmer each afternoon for the next 4 days as summer keeps its hold on the south. With the strong dome of high pressure over the mid-south, this is stretch of days is likely to continue. Fortunately, guidance is also suggesting we lose the upper ridge before this moisture push, which means temperatures should fall back into the low 90s for the weekend. Upper high to remain in place across the southeastern U. The lower level moisture will attempt to under cut the upper high with decreasing cap strength in the afternoon.
Temperatures reached the low to mid 90s, under mostly sunny skies. Similar weather is expected for Tuesday with highs in the low 90s. The summertime ridge across the southeast United States builds even stronger by Wednesday, which could bring sufficient mid level dry air over the region to suppress any thunderstorm chances.
This heating will take place ahead of a cold front sinking southeast from MN into central WI through northern IA. This cold frontal boundary is expected to hang up tonight from east- central and southwest WI.
333 AM EDT Tue Sep 10 2019 A weak cold front will linger in the region today with isolated afternoon scattered showers and thunderstorms.
Otherwise, persistent upper and surface ridging will produce VFR conditions throughout the forecast. Surface ridging will keep winds less than 10kts.
Today will be much like yesterday as we will remain on the edge of the upper level ridge. Tonight will see temperatures to fall slowly as the dew points will remain in the low to mid 70s.
450 AM MDT Tue Sep 10 2019 Southwesterly flow will increase today as an upper level low drops southward into the western CONUS. Surface dewpoints will climb into the lower to mid-60s to the south of the front with southeasterly winds pushing the dewpoints north of the front into the 50s. Very large hail and damaging wind gusts are possible this afternoon and evening with a chance for tornadoes in the area of enhanced shear near the warm front.
A weather disturbance will move across the region through Wednesday bringing cooler temperatures, breezy conditions, and a chance of showers and storms today with storms mainly in eastern Arizona for Wednesday.
Highs will be in the low to mid 90s across the interior, and near 90 at the beaches, with heat indices around 100 degrees.
/issued 445 AM EDT Tue Sep 10 2019/ High pressure at the surface and aloft will ridge across the area through mid-week.
1033 AM EDT Tue Sep 10 2019 An upper ridge over the region will continue above normal temperatures through the week. Only a few locations will have diurnal showers and thunderstorms because of the ridging. Mid and upper ridge centered just west of the area will hold firm across the southeastern states through tonight. However, an upper impulse will move clockwise around the ridge center down the coast. Afternoon highs will be in the low to mid 90s with lows tonight in the lower 70s.
405 AM CDT Tue Sep 10 2019 The overall upper level pattern over the southeastern US will generally be the same throughout this week with an upper level ridge centered near the Appalachian Mountains. For today and tomorrow, slightly weaker western side of upper high will allow for increased moisture to be capitalized on. At the same time, previous days of mid to upper 90 degree highs should be settling back down to the lower 90s. Operational global models then indicate that the ridge will begin build west across the LA/MS forecast area and well into Texas.