Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
249 AM MDT Thu Jun 2 2022 Quasi-zonal flow is in place over the region with a weak ridge of high pressure just to our west. With the ridge approaching warm advection continues so highs could be 5 degrees warmer than yesterday especially in the lower deserts. Tomorrow the ridge passes over the region, but maintains a similar pressure gradient in the process. This will result in warmer temps, deeper mixing and drier surface RH. Midlevel moisture could support an afternoon shower or storm in the higher terrain.
A cold front will move through the region today bringing chances of showers and thunderstorms. Discussion: As of 3 AM, water vapor imagery and upper air analysis places a SW/NE oriented ridge across the deep southern plains and across the far southeast and into the mid Atlantic. Troughing was evident moving across the plains leading to convective activity across the Ohio Valley. Temperatures in the lower/mid 80s and dewpoints in the 60s results in CAPE values in excess of 2000 J/Kg by early this afternoon. The cold front will be exiting the area tonight.
Cyclonic flow aloft is expected to persist by the 00-12 UTC global suites Thursday and Friday and slowly weaken into the weekend across the Northland south of Ontario low pressure. This favors below normal temperatures in the 50s near the International Border, and the low to mid 60s elsewhere Thursday and Friday, with a moderation back to near normal values this weekend. Cloud cover will increase later this morning as a cold front sweeps through. Expect west to northwest winds today to become gusty following the cold front as a deep mixed layer develops and stronger winds aloft mix to the surface.
A cold front is draped across the area from Fort Wayne to Lafayette.
Wnwly sfc flow and weak warm advection is expected today into the evening ahead of the cold front, while temps aloft cool via PVA. Fcst soundings do show some CAPE especially toward central WI, but good mixing should result in dewpoints dropping into the lower 40s and locally lower. High temps in the lower to middle 70s today with a lake breeze expected over far ern WI. Temps are still expected to reach the lower 70s. There is plenty of dry air in place at the onset so kept PoPs on the low side, close to the NBM.
The area will be under southwest flow aloft with a ridge axis centered east of the area and an upper low centered off the coast of British Columbia and Washington through Friday.
412 AM MDT Thu Jun 2 2022 Northwest flow aloft prevailed between a upper level trough to the east and ridge over the Intermountain West. Mid/upper level clouds were topping the ridge and spreading into WY. Winds beneath the ridge were light and variable.
As the mid-level high pressure slowly drifts southwestward today and into tonight, a quasi-zonal upper level flow is expected to develop. Warm temperatures are expected to continue through Friday with highs ranging from the lower to upper 90s, from east to west. Lows Thursday night will be slightly cooler than the past few nights with lows dropping into the lower 70s inland and mid 70s across the Rio Grande and near the coast.
A ridge of high pressure can be seen on satellite imagery building over the southwestern states this morning. The ridge axis will be centered over the southwest today, shifting east by Friday. Expect temperatures to be at least a couple of degrees warmer today than yesterday. As the ridge axis slides east of Arizona Friday, gradient winds increase in response to a trough moving into the Pacific Northwest.
619 AM CDT Thu Jun 2 2022 (Today) The cold front that will bring us weather later today is currently stretched from the OH Valley back into the Souther Plains. The GFS forecast sounding saturates the profile faster and holds onto the low level cap longer than the NAM.
The Northern Rockies will start today off under a weak ridge of high pressure while a closed system of low pressure spins off the coast of British Columbia. As the day progresses, the ridge will shift to the east and the low pressure system will begin to send moisture into the Northern Rockies under southwesterly flow aloft by this afternoon. The closed low off the coast does not seem to want to vacate, and will continue to push Pacific moisture onshore through the weekend under southwesterly flow.
Partly to mostly cloudy skies over the southwestern two thirds of the forecast area this morning as weak disturbance pass over a ridge centered over the Northern Rockies.
TSRA wl move across the TAF sites along and ahead of a cold front mainly this aftn into this evening and briefly reduce flight conditions. Early morning surface analysis showed a cold front stretching across northeast Arkansas back across southeast Oklahoma into northern Texas. Although the threat for severe storms will end during the evening, rain chances will continue overnight as the weak cold front drifts through our CWA. Despite the cooler temperatures behind the cold front tonight, morning lows will still be a couple degrees warmer than normal in the upper 60s to near 70F at most locations.
Weak high pressure ridge remains in place across the area allowing for gradually increasing temperatures. Expecting temps to top out in the 70s across the valleys today with 60s in the higher terrain.
One more hot day is in store for interior NorCal today with temperatures peaking in the low 90s in the Valley, 80s in the foothills, and 60s to 70s in the mountains. Cooling trend continues into the weekend with weekend temperatures 15 to 25 degrees cooler than today.
(Today) Early this morning the slow moving cold front was positioned from Northern Texas into far Southeast Oklahoma and then extended northeast into Central Arkansas.
Early morning surface analysis showed a cold front stretching across northeast Arkansas back across southeast Oklahoma into northern Texas. Although the threat for severe storms will end during the evening, rain chances will continue overnight as the weak cold front drifts through our CWA. Despite the cooler temperatures behind the cold front tonight, morning lows will still be a couple degrees warmer than normal in the upper 60s to near 70F at most locations.
SHORT TERM (Today through Friday): High pressure in control for the remainder of the week with moisture from Agatha still seeping into the CWA.
1017 AM EDT Thu Jun 2 2022 KBYX is quite busy this morning as convection associated with a low pressure sitting east of the Yucatan Peninsula has been drifting northeast across the outer Straits of Florida and through the Lower and Middle Keys. This will be a common occurrence for the remainder of the day as the low pressure system that we have been focusing our attention on drifts to the northeast across the western Caribbean. Gentle to moderate breezes are expected to continue through this afternoon with breezes freshening tonight as a low pressure system near the Yucatan Peninsula approaches the Florida Keys coastal waters.
602 AM CDT Thu Jun 2 2022 (Today) Early this morning the slow moving cold front was positioned from Northern Texas into far Southeast Oklahoma and then extended northeast into Central Arkansas.
907 AM EDT Thu Jun 2 2022 High pressure will build into the region this afternoon through Friday. This will lead to drier and cooler conditions for the end of the work week.
1023 AM EDT Thu Jun 2 2022 A strong cold front will cross the area tonight and bring some severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. High pressure returns shortly thereafter heading into the weekend. The low stratus cloud deck that was over parts of the DC metro and northern I-95 corridor this morning is slowly eroding. Previous Discussion Cdfnt extends southwest from a low pressure center over northeast Ohio. Despite the fast flow, very localized flooding can't be completely ruled out over the highly urbanized areas of DC to Baltimore given possibility of intense, but brief, rainfall rates. Weak high pressure builds gradually over the region Fri through the weekend providing fair weather condtions and pleasant temperatures.
627 AM EDT Thu Jun 2 2022 High pressure will build into the region this afternoon through Friday. This will lead to drier and cooler conditions for the end of the work week.
651 AM CDT Thu Jun 2 2022 (Today through Friday) A line of showers and thunderstorms is dissipating as it moves into our area leaving a surface boundary, erstwhile weak cold front across northern parts of the Edwards Plateau and Hill Country into Central Texas. With the Subtropical Ridge nearly overhead, expect activity to be isolated to widely scattered in areal coverage.
332 AM MDT Thu Jun 2 2022 Northwest flow aloft prevailed between a upper level trough to the east and ridge over the Intermountain West. Mid/upper level clouds were topping the ridge and spreading into WY. Winds beneath the ridge were light and variable.
651 AM EDT Thu Jun 2 2022 Cooler with a few scattered rain showers and thunderstorms mainly across Northeast PA. Showers end tonight with cooler and drier weather heading into the weekend. 345 AM Update: A cold front is currently making its way through CNY early this morning with drier air advecting in. With 850 mb temperatures under 10C, high temperatures Friday will only get into the low to mid 70s even with mostly sunny skies. Cool, but dry high pressure system will move over the region for this weekend.
Today through Friday The ridge will remain in place over ID and the Northern Rockies today. The ridge axis will shift eastward over western portions of the forecast area and extend across much of the Rockies Friday. Instability will be increased as well, as temperatures continue to warm as a result of the ridge.
218 AM PDT Thu Jun 2 2022 A warm and breezy day will be in store today before a cooling trend materializes through the weekend as a low pressure system approaches the region.
529 AM EDT Thu Jun 2 2022 A slow moving cold front will maintain shower and thunderstorm chances today. Dry weather returns tonight through the weekend under building high pressure.
High pressure along the eastern seaboard ridges southwest over Florida and into the Gulf of Mexico. The National Hurricane Center is monitoring an area of low pressure near the Yucatan Peninsula for tropical development. This area of low pressure has an 80 percent chance of development in 48 hours and 5 days. As this low moves northeast toward Florida, rain and storm chances will increase starting Friday and continuing through the weekend.
712 AM EDT Thu Jun 2 2022 A slow moving cold front will maintain shower and thunderstorm chances today. Dry weather returns tonight through the weekend under building high pressure.
Isolated to scattered showers and isolated lightning storms will be possible once again today, mainly in the afternoon with the higher coverage of storms remaining along the western side of FL due to the easterly flow. While coverage is expected to be less than yesterday across ECFL, the highest rain chances for this afternoon will be across the south and along the southern interior (from Kissimmee to southern Brevard county southward).
605 AM MDT Thu Jun 2 2022 Northwest flow aloft prevailed between a upper level trough to the east and ridge over the Intermountain West. Mid/upper level clouds were topping the ridge and spreading into WY. Winds beneath the ridge were light and variable.
516 AM MDT Thu Jun 2 2022 Quasi-zonal flow is in place over the region with a weak ridge of high pressure just to our west. With the ridge approaching warm advection continues so highs could be 5 degrees warmer than yesterday especially in the lower deserts. Tomorrow the ridge passes over the region, but maintains a similar pressure gradient in the process. This will result in warmer temps, deeper mixing and drier surface RH. Midlevel moisture could support an afternoon shower or storm in the higher terrain.
Temperatures and timing the highest chances for precipitation will provide the main forecast challenges. Temperatures should be warmer, topping out in the upper 70s and lower 80s.
Afternoon high temperatures will begin trending down as high pressure shifts east. A trough will then advance into the NE Pacific to usher in widespread beneficial rainfall through the weekend. A ridge of high pressure will begin slowly shifting eastward today with inland temperatures reaching only a few degrees cooler than yesterday. A mid to upper-level trough is moving behind the ridge into the NE Pacific and will begin to establish an increasingly moisture rich zonal flow our way to its south, with embedded disturbances and an eventual front passing through.
/issued 305 AM CDT Thu Jun 2 2022/ A cold front stretches from Northwest Arkansas to Western Kentucky this morning.
548 AM CDT Thu Jun 2 2022 Early this morning a cold front bisected the CWFA near the Ohio River, with just a few showers lingering east of the MS River.
/issued 441 AM CDT Thu Jun 2 2022/ SHORT TERM (Today through Friday): High pressure in control for the remainder of the week with moisture from Agatha still seeping into the CWA.
Warmer westerly winds along with plenty of sunshine will allow for temperatures to reach the mid 70s across much of the area this afternoon, with some upper 70s possible across southern Minnesota. Isolated showers are likely to develop during the afternoon across western Wisconsin, along a weak cold front moving across the area.
The high pressure ridge shifts east with zonal onshore flow setting up for the weekend with temperatures decreasing to around seasonal readings.
225 PM CDT Thu Jun 2 2022 Northwest winds have finally taken hold enough to drive out some of the low level moisture. Given the high June sun angle and the dry air mass, will not fight the nbm temps too much.
A cold front is currently analyzed along and nearly parallel to I-40. /issued 305 AM CDT Thu Jun 2 2022/ A cold front stretches from Northwest Arkansas to Western Kentucky this morning.
229 PM MDT Thu Jun 2 2022 H5 ridge continues to sweep east across the Rockies during the next 24 to 36 hours. The ridge itself is not particularly strong, so embedded impulses will be able to build up convection, given enough sfc lift and moisture.
A short wave will move out of the Southern Plains/Red River valley across the Lower Mississippi Valley that will push a surface frontal boundary into the forecast area late this afternoon and evening. Also, due to the high moisture content and expected relative slow motion of the storms, some locally heavy rainfall may also occur.
1152 AM MDT Thu Jun 2 2022 Northwest flow aloft prevailed between a upper level trough to the east and ridge over the Intermountain West. Mid/upper level clouds were topping the ridge and spreading into WY. Winds beneath the ridge were light and variable.
1159 AM EDT Thu Jun 2 2022 A slow moving cold front will maintain shower and thunderstorm chances this afternoon. Dry weather returns tonight through the weekend under building high pressure. Showers and isolated thunderstorms continue to erupt with the encroachment of the cold front and likely to categorcal pops were maintained for the aftn over most areas.
Otherwise with skies ranging from generally clear east to partly/mostly cloudy west, warm conditions prevailed across the Valley, with 10 AM temperatures into the low/mid 80s with light SW-W winds. A cold front extending from east/central Kentucky, to west of Nashville, and just SE of Memphis, will continue heading to the SE during the course of the afternoon and evening.
Cooler and less humid conditions are settling into the area. Low temperatures tonight are expected to drop into the low 50s.
Highs will range from the upper 80s northwest to the low 90s southeast. A surface cold front will slowly from the northwest tonight and tomorrow and will result in scattered to numerous showers and storms this afternoon and into the evening hours. Highs will range from the lower 80s northeast to near 90 far southeast.
A weak flattened upper ridge over the Southeastern CONUS will continue to retreat westward in response to a broad upper trough moving passing over the Great lakes and Ohio River regions. With the passage of the cold front the highs Friday will be a touch cooler, ranging from 82 to 87 degrees across our northwest zones, and around 90 degrees elsewhere. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible especially along and west of I-65 this afternoon and evening as a weak cold front approaches the region.
A weak cold front moving through the area this afternoon may be able to spark a shower or weak thunderstorm in the far eastern portions of the CWA, but the chance is small (about 20-25%). With deep mixing today temperatures have risen into the low to mid 70s with RH values expected to bottom out below 30 percent.
A broad trough of low pressure over the West will continue to bring gusty onshore winds, cooler conditions, and periods of high clouds to the region.
For tonight, a disturbance aloft is progged to move around the northern periphery of an upper high (centered over Mexico), and track east-southeast into our area Friday morning. Carrying the highest PoPs (40-50 percent) in the Big Country, and in the Big Country and northern Heartland areas Friday morning. Highs are expected to range from the lower 80s in the northern Big Country, to lower 90s in our southern counties.
The higher pwats to the south have contributed to isolated showers over the southern half of the area this morning, including a 0. Clouds are slow to erode in the wake of this activity, resulting in cooler temps southwest, as the trend have been for afternoon highs to be limited to the 60s, maybe even mid 60s at Elkhart. Similar to Today, showers may linger across the southern half of the area, however the more interesting aspect of the day and evening will be the high confidence in multicell storms clusters spreading east out of Colorado as early as 23z/6pm around Elkhart and Johnson.
Latest surface analysis reveals the cold front tracking through eastern Kentucky as the lower theta-e airmass edge is now moving along southern Indiana and Illinois with a fair- weather cu field developing under a northwest light breeze. Furthermore, VIS satellite imagery reveals a weak density boundary trying to initiate convection between the cold front to the east- southeast and the drier airmass to the north-northwest. Afternoon highs will probably reach the high 70s with dewpoints in the 50s and since convective temperatures will be around 75, expect a fair-weather cumulus field to develop in the afternoon.
226 PM MDT Thu Jun 2 2022 Upper low off the Pacific Northwest coast with a small scale ridge over the northern Rockies. Will keep the focus mainly over the higher terrain for the highest PoPs. Highs tomorrow will be near seasonal values in the lower 70s.
Weak high pressure should keep much of the region dry; however, it is possible for a few showers and thunderstorms to develop this afternoon should any of the clouds break the cap. Tonight, temperatures drop in to the low 70s. Tomorrow, another warm and muggy day is on tap with high temperatures rising into the low to mid 90s. A cold front is expected to move through the region which will slightly increase the odds of precipitation; however, it will be lacking in terms of forcing.
(The rest of today ) Mid level low pressure in the Arklatex region will continue to slide east southeast this morning.
(This afternoon through Friday night) Low clouds have overspread much of the area behind a cold front that moved through the region yesterday. This activity will helped by weak disturbances rounding the ridge centered over Mexico. Once again, a weak disturbance rounds the top of the ridge and is Expected to help initiate thunderstorms across the western higher terrain tomorrow afternoon and evening.
146 PM EDT Thu Jun 2 2022 A cold front will push through the region this evening with rain and thunderstorms.
317 PM EDT Thu Jun 2 2022 A cold front will move through the area Friday, leading to an increase in shower and storm chances. Ridge weakens overnight ahead of an advancing cold front. Winds around 5-10 mph overnight as the cold front approaches the area and high-level clouds move-in ahead of the convection well to our west. Cold front approaches the area tonight and into early Friday. Cold front will interact with the sea breeze and widespread convection should result with modest instability, increasing moisture advection ahead of the front, and additional shear with the cold front in the area. A cold front will be moving across the area at the beginning of the period and it may be quite active.
Temperatures on Friday will be a bit warmer, but are expected to cool a few degrees over the weekend. Friday will also see breezy southwesterly winds pick up across the area due to an upper-level trough in the Eastern Pacific.
1115 AM EDT Thu Jun 2 2022 Cooler with a few scattered rain showers and thunderstorms mainly across Northeast PA. Showers end tonight with cooler and drier weather heading into the weekend. 345 AM Update: A cold front is currently making its way through CNY early this morning with drier air advecting in. With 850 mb temperatures under 10C, high temperatures Friday will only get into the low to mid 70s even with mostly sunny skies. Cool, but dry high pressure system will move over the region for this weekend.
256 PM EDT Thu Jun 2 2022 A cold front will push through the region this evening with rain and thunderstorms.
As far as temperatures go, lighter winds and clear skies allow most areas to tumble into the lower to middle 70s across the County Warning Area (CWA) tonight. Ample sunshine and a light south to southeast breeze pushes temperatures into the lower to middle 90s for much of the CWA with a few spots nearing 100 degrees in Zapata County. Another night in the lower to middle 70s is anticipated Friday night. Also, some of the convection allowing models (CAMs) get some bigger showers and storms going across the Texas Panhandle/Northern Texas Friday evening and dive them south around the eastern flank of the 500mb ridge over northern Mexico.
As for Friday, more of the same conditions are in store with slightly warmer afternoon highs in the upper 70s and breezier northwest winds gusting around 20 to 25 mph during the afternoon. These northwesterly winds will advect in drier air from the north which will lower the dew points into the lower 40s across much of the area with some spots possibly in the upper 30s. The lowering dew points, warm temperatures, and breezy winds will result in an elevated fire risk throughout the day on Friday, especially in areas that haven't seen as much rainfall recently. Temperatures will once again be comfortable Friday night with lows cooling into the low to mid 50s. Winds turn northwesterly Friday morning becoming gusty at times in the lower to mid 20kt range by late morning/early afternoon.
1219 PM CDT Thu Jun 2 2022 (Today through Friday) A line of showers and thunderstorms is dissipating as it moves into our area leaving a surface boundary, erstwhile weak cold front across northern parts of the Edwards Plateau and Hill Country into Central Texas. With the Subtropical Ridge nearly overhead, expect activity to be isolated to widely scattered in areal coverage.
Large upper low near the Hudson Bay meanders only a little bit and will keep northwest flow in place over the region.
331 PM EDT Thu Jun 2 2022 Weak high pressure will move east of the area tonight.
153 PM MDT Thu Jun 2 2022 An upper ridge over the Pacific NW will continue drifiting east over the next several days.
127 PM MDT Thu Jun 2 2022 Upper air analysis shows upper low near Hudson Bay and a second low just offshore the Pacific NW coast. Ridging is persisting across the central to northern Rockies, with northwest flow aloft over the northern Great Plains. Cooler, drier air is filtering into ND, but more moisture over western SD is allowing plenty of altocu to develop. The first wave is expected tonight, which will bring elevated showers and thunderstorms to NE WY through SW SD, along a theta E ridge.
As far as temperatures, went slightly cooler than NBM for tonights MinT and slightly warmer for Friday afternoons MaxT using CONSMOS guidance.