Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
In addition, southerly winds will be increasing late tonight as low pressure strengthens in the Northern Plains.
Slight breeze today from the southwest then gusty tomorrow from the north behind a cold front with gusts up to 35kts in the morning. Thursday morning a cold front is expected to push through the Panhandles. This front will cause winds to shift out of the north and keep our temperatures cooler for the majority of the area.
Cooler air spreads into the region on Thursday with dry conditions prevailing.
127 PM EDT Wed Oct 25 2017 Temperatures will be cooler today through Thursday.
200 PM MST Wed Oct 25 2017 High pressure will steadily subside for the remainder of the week resulting in a gradual cooling trend, though temperatures will continue to remain above normal. Afternoon highs in the lower and middle 90s will be common for lower elevation communities into the weekend before more upper 80s become prevalent. A general retrogression of the largest positive height anomalies will occur over the next several days such that the ridge center will propagate into the Pacific NW/British Columbia. This configuration will result in prolonged northerly flow into the Great Basin and southwest Conus, and allow cooler air to slowly bleed through higher terrain into the forecast area. Similarly, H7 and H8 temperatures remain near record levels, but certainly a few degree cooler than yesterday.
Warmer air temps, warm ground temps, and an early season system lead to lower confidence in the magnitude of this winter weather impact. The main question will be how quickly the below freezing low level airmass advects into the region (changing rain to snow). NAM typically does better, and does show this airmass advecting in quicker (more snow), while the ECMWF/CMC are warmer for longer (less snow).
/issued 351 AM CDT Wed Oct 25 2017/ SHORT TERM (Today through Thursday): 500mb ridge across southwest Texas today will continue to provide subsidence across the CWA this afternoon.
A strong northwest flow will continue into early this evening over western Montana with significant west winds along ridges and mainly southwest Montana. At the same time, a cold front will shift southward across western Montana with significantly colder air spilling westward over the Continental Divide. As the cold front initially arrives in Glacier Park and Flathead Lake late this evening, very strong northeast winds will develop for a few hours with local gusts to 55 mph through canyons (such as Bad Rock Canyon). The cold front arrives in Missoula, Drummond, Seeley Lake, Hamilton, Anaconda and Butte between 2 a. A mostly dry cold front will also push across Orofino, Grangeville, Riggins and the Camas Prairie later tonight, but only light to moderate northwest winds expected.
612 PM EDT Wed Oct 25 2017 Update/Aviation High pressure will build in tonight with clearing skies and frosty temperatures.
Issued by National Weather Service LITTLE ROCK AR 247 PM CDT Wed Oct 25 2017 Upper trough making its way east of the area through the Ohio River Valley area toward the Northeast.
These downsloping southwest winds will bring warmer air into the region, resulting in afternoon highs climbing into the mid 80s just ahead of an approaching strong Canadian cold front. (Thursday night through Thursday) Changes in the weather are in store beginning Thursday night as a strong cold front swings through the Big Country bringing strong northerly winds at 15-20 MPH with gusts up to 30 MPH.
241 PM EDT Wed Oct 25 2017 Clearing skies and light winds will allow temperatures to fall into the low 30s tonight with widespread frost.
241 PM CDT Wed Oct 25 2017 The anticipated surface cold front will arrive tomorrow around noon across our northern counties in the southern Texas Panhandle, through the South Plains by mid-afternoon and then I20 corridor by tomorrow evening.
250 PM CDT Wed Oct 25 2017 High pressure beginning to move east, overnight lows will modify somewhat from last night, which were the coldest readings of the season thus far. In fact, temps fell to just around the freezing mark across extreme northern sections of area. Another stg cold front will enter Red River Valley late Thu night and have placed a slgt chance of rain near front, as very lgt precip may squeeze out of the low cloud bases underneath steep post frontal inversion.
312 PM CDT Wed Oct 25 2017 A strong cold front will cross the area late tonight, with very windy conditions behind the front Thursday. Readings by late afternoon will be near freezing by late afternoon across far northwest Nebraska, and falling into and through the 30s elsewhere.
Very deep upper trough moves through this evening, placing northern MI in between two systems and a brief break in active weather. Weak high pressure in between crosses the region Thursday before next system arrives. As the low is pulling farther east, mid and upper level moisture is being stripped away. Thermal trough also moves through overnight, so expect decrease in the coverage of showers as we move into tonight.
however winds will not be nearly as strong as yesterday as approaching high pressure has loosened the gradient some since last night. A deep trough is located across the east half of the country while a ridge bakes the west coast. A cold front passed the region yesterday morning reinforcing the already cool and dry air mass in place. Through the weekend the trough will remain in place over the eastern half of the U. By Wednesday a short wave will drop out of Canada along the back side of the ridge and into the plains.
Relative humidity values are down in the lower 20 percent change range, with no clouds in sight.
/issued 241 PM CDT Wed Oct 25 2017/ The anticipated surface cold front will arrive tomorrow around noon across our northern counties in the southern Texas Panhandle, through the South Plains by mid-afternoon and then I20 corridor by tomorrow evening.
Upper level low to our north is starting to open up and is forecast to gradually move northeast.
Otherwise a weak cold front will be moving through the region today into early tonight. Upper level ridge will build back into the region Thursday. The lowest cigs will be at KBDN and KRDM.
420 PM EDT Wed Oct 25 2017 Currently - Fresh north breezes continue across the area in wake of this mornings cold front passage. Temperatures have drifted downwards through the day and now are in the low to mid 70s. High pressure centered along the western Gulf Coast will slide eastwards then arc northeastwards along the Atlantic Coast over the next couple of days. Another cold front will sweep southeastwards across the Gulf of Mexico heading into the weekend. This will pull northward a broad area of low pressure in the northwestern Caribbean Sea.
314 PM EDT Wed Oct 25 2017 A strong upper level trough will move across the region with clouds and some showers, especially west of the Blue Ridge, through tonight. High pressure will then build over the southeastern part of the country with fair weather and moderating temperatures expected through the end of the workweek.
High temps will be similar if not slightly warmer than they were yesterday with areas out west and along the southern Coastal Bend topping off in the low to mid 80s and near 80 degrees across the northern Coastal Bend and Victoria Crossroads. Light northerly wind to gradually become S-SW in the afternoon as high pressure slides overhead. High pressure in place will keep rather quiet and dry conditions through the short term. Clear skies will continue to allow for afternoon temperatures to rise into the lower 80s, while dry conditions will allow for afternoon relative humidity percentages to drop into the mid-teens to lower 20s.
/Issued 1020 AM CDT Wed Oct 25 2017/ Full sun today across the forecast area along with south to southwest surface winds will allow temps to climb to the lower to middle 70s across eastern Oklahoma and west central Arkansas. A little cooler readings in the upper 60s can be expected across northwest Arkansas.
350 PM CDT Wed Oct 25 2017 A weak trof of low pressure is moving across the forecast area this afternoon. The surface reflection of this wave will move into Minnesota by late Thursday afternoon and the cold front associated with the system will push into northwest Missouri by 18Z and further into central and northeast Missouri and west central Illinois by late afternoon. Warm south-southwest flow and plenty of sunshine ahead of the cold front will produce a good warm up in the afternoon to well above normal temperatures in the low to mid 70s. Ridging builds in Wednesday in advance of the next trof that is diving south.
High pressure will steadily subside for the remainder of the week resulting in a gradual cooling trend, though temperatures will continue to remain above normal. Afternoon highs in the lower and middle 90s will be common for lower elevation communities into the weekend before more upper 80s become prevalent. A general retrogression of the largest positive height anomalies will occur over the next several days such that the ridge center will propagate into the Pacific NW/British Columbia. This configuration will result in prolonged northerly flow into the Great Basin and southwest Conus, and allow cooler air to slowly bleed through higher terrain into the forecast area. Similarly, H7 and H8 temperatures remain near record levels, but certainly a few degree cooler than yesterday.
The pressure gradient will tighten on Thursday in response to an approaching trough/cold front, resulting in moderate and gusty southerly flow through the end of the forecast period.
129 PM PDT Wed Oct 25 2017 Weak upper level low pressure and a dry cool front move through northeast California and western Nevada late tonight; high pressure then rebuilds into the weekend.
330 AM CST Tue Jan 2 2018 Another extremely cold morning, as Arctic high pressure extends from Nebraska into central Illinois. Overall, the forecast features improvement with the eventual abatement of dangerous wind chills by midday and "warmer" temperatures as the Arctic high continues to shift into MO and winds turn from the SW in strengthening WAA regime. SW wind and abundant sunshine today should aid in temperatures being several degrees warmer compared to yesterday, with all locations climbing above zero. Highs are expected to range from the single digits to the lower teens south.
Of note for tonight, both GFS and ECMWF show a mid to upper level trough moving across our region, but with limited moisture, not adding any chance for snow tonight.
High pressure will continue to slide southeast out of the region tonight. With that said we did utilize guidance on the high side of the envelope of solutions.
Surface ridging will drop farther south as well today with surface winds backing to the north.
Weak WAA will help temps rise into the lower 20s on Tuesday which will feel balmy compared to the past couple of days.
With high pressure established at the surface, a clear sky will allow for abundant sunshine for most of the day. Despite the good heating, northerly winds will keep temperatures in check and keep us once again below freezing all day. An upper-trough will amplify over Missouri and swing into the Mid-South late in day. The dry air at the low- levels will prevent any low clouds and precipitation from developing, however.
These are conditions are expected to remain persistent much of the night with lowering of ceilings Tuesday morning and afternoon as a low pressure coastal trough strengthens with the approach of an upper level disturbance. Ceilings look to drop to IFR at KBRO and KHRL but only lower to MVFR at KMFE where the trough will have less influence. Confidence is above average for the lower conditions at KBRO with lesser confidence on the westward extent of the potential IFR. Rain and drizzle also may redevelop in the vicinity of the trough with lowering visibilities to MVFR at times at KBRO and possibly at KHRL. Ceilings have been rising gradually this afternoon as the cold air deepens across the region and rainfall also has been diminishing in coverage as an upper level disturbance moves well south of the region weakening the coastal trough.
A stubborn upper level ridge will maintain dry northwest flow aloft over our region through the week.
1127 PM CST Mon Jan 1 2018 Arctic high pressure will build south through the region tonight and Tuesday.
Tuesday's clipper continues to move out of the area to the southeast with its cold front sweeping southward.
Currently, temperatures range from the single digits to the low teens across the area with wind chill values ranging from the single digits below zero to near zero. Temperatures will remain below freezing today as Arctic high pressure continues to build into the area. Tonight, an upper trof will swing through the region and could produce some flurries across the area. Clouds associated with the trof will keep lows from dropping as much. Expect readings in the lower teens.
Warmer temps are being observed along our western foothills, but eastern valleys remain quite cold (-22F at Miles City at 2 am). Pressure tendencies suggest a better mixed W-NW wind this afternoon as a surface trof drops through the Dakotas.
200 AM MST Tue Jan 2 2018 The arctic airmass that was over the area the past few days will continue to slowly move away from the area as warmer air moves in from the west with approaching high amplitude ridge axis.
Most of the low level moisture now is across Colorado, so do not think we will be dealing with any fog this morning.
Due to the mostly clear skies and snow covered ground, much colder than average temperatures will occur over the area tonight, although lows will be 10-15F degrees warmer than last night at most locations. Temperatures should be much warmer, with best confidence of the warm air actually reaching the surface over the downslope areas off northeastern Wyoming and far western South Dakota.
With high pressure overhead, winds have decoupled allowing temps in the valleys to plummet to near zero and even below zero. As the high continues to slide southeast, the clear skies will persist into tonight. Late tonight, the high will shift far enough southeast to where winds will switch around to the south and southwest as cloud cover begins to move into from the southwest towards dawn.
Temperatures will be several degrees warmer today compared to yesterday, with highs in the low teens.
230 AM CST Tue Jan 2 2018 High pressure currently centered to our northwest at this time, will slide southeast today. The center of this high will position itself over the center of the CWA by this afternoon. A weak upper level trough will swing through the area this afternoon into the early evening which may bring some clouds to southern portions of the CWA. Winds will become southwesterly later tonight and that wind shift along with an increase in cloudiness ahead of our next frontal boundary, will yield some warmer temperatures for tonight, but it will still be rather cold.
A cold front has pushed south of the Keys since late yesterday evening, with a discernible wave analyzed east of the Florida peninsula. The expansive area of high pressure in the center of the country will continue to settle southward and eastward over the next day or so.
Gentle isentropic upglide remains in the low levels, but moisture is rather hard to come by.
Winds will be out of the west becoming more northwest tonight as another cold front dips south.
A couple of competing factors though, namely will WAA return soon enough to the west to "warm" lows any and the fact that high temps today seemed to be 2-4 degrees cooler than originally forecast.
Brusda An upper level ridge of high pressure is slowly rebuilding over the Pacific Northwest. As a result warmer temperatures will slowly move back into North Central and Southwest MT over the next few days.
Expect these winds to continue to increase throughout the day with decent mixing and the pressure gradient strengthening in advance of a cold front tonight. Used a blend of the NAM12, HRRR, and RAP for timing of fropa tonight with the higher POPS/QPF in the northeast portions of the forecast area.
The evening will start off with mostly clear skies and light wind speeds because of the influence of high pressure to the west. However, a brisk southwest wind won't make it feel much warmer than it has been. Arctic air makes its return in the wake of the Clipper's cold front.
Short wave will brush the area and bring a cold front out of Canada. Cold front is expected to move into the northern Red River Valley by mid afternoon. Another high pressure system will follow and settle over central ND by Wed morning. At the surface, high pressure builds down into the FA, which should keep winds on the low end.
Cannot totally rule out some patchy freezing fog or flurries ahead of the short wave with quite a bit of lingering boundary layer moisture. Significant warming trend begins Tuesday, at least relatively speaking for the high plains areas that are so cold today. Upper-level ridging appears to be the dominant feature through mid to late week. Warmer and dry conditions return through the upcoming week after today.
Most areas have cleared out of the low clouds, but parts of the northern Concho Valley as well as the I-10 corridor are still overcast. Keeping highs tomorrow below freezing for one more day.
High pressure currently centered over northern Missouri will move east toward our area today.
238 AM CST Tue Jan 2 2018 A broad upper trough is over the eastern 2/3rds of the country with an upper ridge over the west coast. Temperatures today will remain cold, especially across the Permian Basin and Lea County where highs will remain below freezing. Low temperatures tonight will be below freezing across the whole CWA.
Could get windy enough on the Buffalo Ridge for some blowing snow issues, especially with the powdery nature of the snow that has fallen recently, so introduced patchy blowing snow to the forecast.
Arctic high pressure to become fully established across the region overnight into Tuesday. Temperatures on Tuesday to may climb above freezing across deep east Texas while the remainder of the region will remain subfreezing throughout the day. Temperatures again forecast to fall into the teens on Tuesday night with hard freeze conditions again possible as a reinforcement of cold high pressure filters south across the region. Additionally, an upper-level trough will swing south on Tuesday afternoon and evening, allowing for increased cloud cover across the region.
Weak ridging will move eastward for the weekend as the main trough over the Eastern CONUS slides east.
402 AM EST Tue Jan 2 2018 Arctic high pressure will keep bitterly cold temperatures over the region today.
Lee trough/warm front from central MT into southeast WY. Temperatures noticeably warmer today, but forecast error potentially quite high from K2WX to KICR given low mixing.
Increasing cloud cover may keep temperatures a few degrees warmer compared to last night so low temperatures may have to be adjusted a bit later tonight.
Temps at the surface should be above freezing though, so no accumulation or impacts are expected.
Temperatures are right on track to lows in the low single digits. Most of the region is 3-4 degrees cooler than last night at this time, but winds are lighter resulting in better radiational conditions. /issued 648 PM CST Mon Jan 1 2018/ Arctic high pressure continues to settle into the Mid South this afternoon and will be centered just to our north overnight.
With high pressure overhead, winds have decoupled allowing temps in the valleys to plummet to near zero and even below zero. As the high continues to slide southeast, the clear skies will persist into tonight. Late tonight, the high will shift far enough southeast to where winds will switch around to the south and southwest as cloud cover begins to move into from the southwest tow to close out the weekend and start the new weekards dawn.
Core of the arctic ridge remains across the area, with lighter winds prevailing through the afternoon. Ridge will settle southward tonight, with areas of westerly low-level flow expanding and strengthening.
Somewhat lower cloud was moving northeast in weak mid-level warm air advection behind the high across eastern Nebraska, with rising and much warmer temps under it. Skies should clear by early afternoon as the Wyoming wave passes, and wind decent low-level warm air advection, highs in the low to mid 20s remain on track. The Manitoba wave stays farther east tonight, but does brings areas of mid and high cloud and a weaker cold front into the area late tonight. With stronger wind in this warmer airmass, lows should stay in the 9-15F range tonight with wind chills as low as -5 to 5F. A northwest flow aloft across the central Plains is expected to continue through the rest of the week as a ridge remains in place across the western states with a trough across the Great Lakes into New England.
Overall, forecast lows seem to be, at least, in the ballpark, but expect additional updates to the low temperature forecast as warranted over the next few hours. Half km winds off the NAM and ECAM support the potential of blowing snow tonight through afternoon hours over the higher terrain areas of the Sisseton hills.
After a record breaking morning with new low temp records at Norfolk and Omaha (-26 and -20 respectively), arctic high pressure will slowly shift east tonight resulting in southwest surface flow by morning. This trough could bring a few flurries to portions of central IA.
Am still concerned this may not be cool enough, but based on latest data don't want to go any cooler at this time. Upper ridge currently over the west coast will slowly migrate eastward and reach the Rockies by the end of the week.
with the lowest MVFR cigs and periods of IFR down toward KPGD/KFMY/KRSW through the middle morning hours.
Temperatures in the coastal plains may hover at or just above freezing for a few hours this afternoon.
248 AM MST Tue Jan 2 2018 High pressure will prevail across the region through the week as temperatures continue to run above normal with highs mostly in the 70s. Like a broken record, the high amplitude pattern persists with well established ridging over the Western U. and a deep longwave trough over central and eastern portions of the country. The extensive cloudiness today will somewhat impact daytime temperatures, but some thinning of the clouds during peak heating this afternoon should allow for highs to reach into the lower 70s across the deserts.
/issued 357 PM CST Mon Jan 1 2018/ As expected, afternoon highs have remained in the 30's areawide with some locations not even making it above freezing.
Arctic High pressure over Iowa and Illinois will continue to drift east across Indiana toward Kentucky Today and Tonight.
143 AM CST Tue Jan 2 2018 It remained bitterly cold early this morning across the area with the Arctic high pressure centered just to the northwest of the forecast area. Have adjusted short term grids slightly warmer in the southwest for the early morning hours.
211 AM MST Tue Jan 2 2018 Imagery shows amplified ridge ovr the wrn CONUS with a dry embedded SW Trof moving swd through MT/WY into a large broad Trof across the rest of the ern CONUS. Further upstream, a brewing nearly stationary upper low resides ovr the EPAC to the WSW of California. A nearly stationary frontal boundary resides to the south and west of this high. Very cold SFC temps are accompanying this High P system with SFC temps currently ranging to the minus 20 and 30s from the Dakotas into MT. Much warmer temps in the (+) 20s are found south and west of the stationary front.
Highs across the western half of the combined Panhandles are expected to rise above the freezing mark while the eastern half falls just short of breaking the freezing mark.
323 AM CST Tue Jan 2 2018 Cold arctic airmass will remain in control one more day with temperatures only a few degrees warmer than yesterday.
An upper level ridge remains over WA and OT tonight. A large area of stratus and freezing fog has spread into Redmond and Bend this evening.
400 AM EST Tue Jan 2 2018 A large area of high pressure will slide east across the Ohio Valley today into tonight.