Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Very strong winds do not look likely overnight so earlier downgraded the High Wind Warning to an Advisory.
A surface analysis this afternoon showed high pressure centered over the eastern Great Lakes, extending down into Carolinas while low pressure was over Red River Valley in the northern Plains. The main forecast concern in the short term is precipitation chances tomorrow and tomorrow night as a mid-level wave, currently stretched from the Texas Gulf Coast north to the Upper Midwest, moves east into the lower Ohio Valley. Plan on warmer lows in the low/mid 50s. The southern stream energy associated with the aforementioned mid level trough will pinch off and form a closed low tomorrow as it drops toward New Orleans. The short term guidance does suggest a piece of energy from the southern closed low will pivot north and brush south-central Kentucky tomorrow evening/night, so kept a model consensus blend of likely PoPs there.
Updated winds earlier to coincide with the end of the highlights.
Cooler and showery weather is forecast for Wednesday and continuing for the rest of the work. Drier but cooler weather is forecast for the upcoming weekend. Precipitation may begin as freezing rain at Moses Lake and Ephrata before temps warm above freezing by late morning. Cooler air floods into the region after 00z with a strong likelihood for rain to switch back to snow.
1035 PM CST Mon Feb 20 2017 As the rain has ended the cooler air and wet grounds will allow the formation of fog overnight with some areas having visibility restrictions lower than one mile.
103 AM EST Tue Feb 21 2017 High pressure will extend over the area from the north into Tuesday.
A slowly advancing upper level trough will bring showers into CHA after 20z with MVFR ceilings late in the TAF cycle.
1121 PM EST Mon Feb 20 2017 High pressure will cross the region tonight through early Tuesday then move east later Tuesday. Expect temps to drop quickly later tonight as high pressure crests over the area and the air calms and decouples. High pressure will cross the region tonight through early Tuesday, then begin to move east later Tuesday. High temperatures Tuesday will range from around 30 to the lower 30s north, to the mid 30s Downeast.
The low moves into the eastern gulf of Mexico Wednesday morning. By mid day Wednesday, a cold front takes better shape, bringing the threat show thunderstorms to South Florida, mainly from Wednesday afternoon into late Wednesday evening.
319 AM EST Tue Feb 21 2017 High pressure cresting over the area this morning will move to the east this afternoon.
300 AM EST Tue Feb 21 2017 Aloft - A low over east TX troughed down into southern Mexico while a ridge above the northwest Caribbean Sea reached north. High pressure in eastern Quebec ridged south to Cuba. The deep layer ridging over the area slowly slides east. Meanwhile the TX low and trough move east and southeast. The upper low and trough will provide lift for thunderstorms but the rainfall along with considerable cloud cover will inhibit heating. The high temperatures Wed will cool compared to today but stay near or just above normal.
251 AM CST Tue Feb 21 2017 Light rain will continue mainly along and east of US Highway 65 this morning as an upper level low moves south of the area. Have kept some lingering showers across south central missouri into the afternoon closer to the upper low. Clouds will be slow to clear Today and temps will be warmer in western Missouri versus south central Missouri.
Sharp upper trof currently advancing east across east Texas in the process of transitioning into a closed low. Cooler temps on tap through the remainder of the workweek but still remaining above the norm. Deep northerly flow will overspread the area as the day progresses between low advancing east and southeast of the area and modest ridging approaching through the south plains.
Active weather is developing well upstream late this evening as an upper low is poised to move eastward across the Gulf Coast tomorrow.
/issued 304 PM CST Mon Feb 20 2017/ Winds behind the cold front, as previously mentioned, increased to 30 to 35 kts though we will see speeds taper off within the next couple of hours. Upper level short wave ridging will give way to mostly zonal flow Wednesday.
/issued 345 PM CST Mon Feb 20 2017/ (Tonight and Tuesday) The upper trough that moved east through the forecast area today will form a closed upper low over the Dallas/Fort Worth Metroplex tonight which will move eastward over central Louisiana tomorrow.
347 AM EST Tue Feb 21 2017 High pressure will crest over the region early today before shifting offshore. A warm front will push east through the region tonight. Low pressure moving east through southern Canada will drive a cold front toward the region late Wednesday and Wednesday night.
1244 AM EST Tue Feb 21 2017 High pressure and clear sky will only gradually give way to increasing clouds.
424 AM EST Tue Feb 21 2017 A weakening cold front will move into our area today, likely causing some showers, mainly northwest portions and mainly this morning. Dry conditions and very warm temperatures are expected Wednesday as southwest winds strengthen ahead of an approaching weak cold front.
Thus surface southerly winds east of AUS should allow rain soaked soils to mix into the low levels for a few hours overnight. There is a slight chance that the approaching wind shift and subsequent increase in northwest winds does not reach AUS before late tonight, which could allow shallow fog to creep into the the low lying areas, but current trends suggest that the drying trend is ahead of schedule if anything. The latest water vapor loop shows an upper level trough axis across Texas and northern Mexico. There are some light echoes on radar data along the Highway 77 corridor and we will hold on to a low chance for showers for the next few hours across this region. Otherwise, a cold front will sweep across the region tonight, dropping overnight lows into the mid 40s to lower 50s.
Ahead of this trough, dense fog has developed across portions of central, south central, and southeast OK. As this trough moves into these areas bringing slightly stronger NW winds and drier air, visibilities are expected to improve with dense fog expected to hang on the longest in the far SE.
Temperatures were mainly in the upper 40s to middle 50s, cooler by the bay and lake.
252 AM EST Tue Feb 21 2017 500MB ridge over South Florida remains in control today providing another warm and dry day across the area. Weather pattern begins to change as high begins to move east Tuesday evening ahead a of a strong low pressure system reaching S FL region. Currently, low pressure over the central plains will travel east into the Mississippi river valley today and continue moving east into the northeast Gulf coast into Wednesday.
Kept PoPs at 20 for most of the area through tomorrow morning as some models are hinting at the development of some showers ahead of the approaching cold front.
1210 AM EST Tue Feb 21 2017 Aviation Low pressure will bring some rain Tuesday with fair and warm weather for Wednesday.
A dry cold front will increase winds from the northwest tomorrow and fog should mix out quickly. THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT AROUND SUNRISE WILL BRING PURE VFR WITH MODERATE WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES DUE TO AN INFLUX OF DRY AIR. /issued 254 PM CST Mon Feb 20 2017/ SHORT TERM (Tonight through Tuesday Night): 500mb trough across west Texas and northern Mexico this afternoon will move across the state into east TX and across the middle and lower TX coast tonight. With the 500mb low/trough across Louisiana and the northwest Gulf of Mexico Tuesday. Patchy fog will develop across the eastern portions of the CWA late tonight into early Tues morning before a trough/front moves through the area Tues morning reinforcing the drier air across the area.
Temperatures are running a solid 5 to 15 degrees cooler right now than at this time last night, and cooler temperatures are forecast for lows tonight. The next trough is set up across MT, and will move over our area during the day Tuesday. A couple short wave troughs coming across the region for Tuesday night into Wednesday evening will bring mainly chances of light rain across the northern CWA.
334 AM EST Tue Feb 21 2017 High pressure is centered over northern New England. Cooler air will seep south into the Mid Atlantic today. High pressure will be located off the southeast coast of the United States late in the week. A cold front will pass through the area this weekend. High pressure is centered over southern Quebec. This will feed "cooler" air into the forecast area, but temperatures still look to be above normal.
Flat ridging follows for Wednesday afternoon and evening, with a dry interlude.
336 AM CST Tue Feb 21 2017 An upper ridge will build across the Panhandles today and then shift eastward tonight and Wednesday.
342 AM CST Tue Feb 21 2017 Upper level low to move across the deep south today. a likelihood of rain shower activity is in the fcst, but due to weakening, rainfall amounts will be on the low side. In fact, look for the heavier rainfall to shift southward where the upper low resides. Despite the cloudiness, we will still see high temps reach into the lower 70s on Wed and Thu.
917 PM PST Mon Feb 20 2017 It will be mostly dry with cooler than average days due to continued onshore flow.
Temperatures along the island chain are in the lower 70s. Low pressure is extending across the Lower Mississippi Valley and easing into the northwestern Gulf of Mexico. The highest chance of precipitation is still windowed for Wednesday and Wednesday night as the strengthening gyre pushes through the eastern Gulf of Mexico, South Florida and the Keys. Regardless, the lower levels are too dry and stable to put in a mention of rain today.
332 AM CST Tue Feb 21 2017 An upper low will move across the Red River Valley into the lower Mississippi Valley today with an upper trough moving over SE Texas this morning. An upper ridge will then develop over the state later this afternoon and tonight.
In the upper levels a ridge is over the Southeast. A cut-off low is over Eastern Texas. A low is developing over the Lower Mississippi River Valley and will begin to influence the weather by morning. There are still some timing differences in the models for the approaching stacked low pressure system. The Euro has the low entering the Gulf south of Louisiana early Wednesday morning while the GFS is a little slower.
Timing of the front/trough a little slower. Widespread light rain and fog developed out ahead of the trough by 18z-19z and this will remain east of the trough into the evening. Models suggest some clearing/drying behind the trough as winds become more west. Not confident of significant drying and a weak ridge builds east through 12z Tue which will likely spell at least areas of fog overnight. Wednesday will be our last really warm day as the cold front moves through.
147 AM EST Tue Feb 21 2017 High pressure and clear sky will only gradually give way to increasing clouds.
1158 PM CST Mon Feb 20 2017 Upper level low pressure will slowly move east through northern Texas tonight. A trough axis will extend north from this feature through eastern Kansas/western Missouri and continue into the western Great Lakes. This would most likely occur across southeastern Kansas and western Missouri near the back edge of the cloud shield associated with this upper level low.
Southwest flow aloft with a deep pineapple connection moisture plume entering western Wyoming will continue to produce periods of moderate to heavy snow with strong winds at ridge top and pass level.
1139 PM CST Mon Feb 20 2017 Continued lower visibilities of 2 to 5 miles and lower ceilings of 800 to 1500 feet through around 00z tomorrow as an upper level low moves over the area.
Thus surface southerly winds east of AUS should allow rain soaked soils to mix into the low levels for a few hours overnight. The latest water vapor loop shows an upper level trough axis across Texas and northern Mexico. There are some light echoes on radar data along the Highway 77 corridor and we will hold on to a low chance for showers for the next few hours across this region. Otherwise, a cold front will sweep across the region tonight, dropping overnight lows into the mid 40s to lower 50s.
343 AM CST Tue Feb 21 2017 Near record high temperatures are expected the next couple of days as an upper ridge builds over west Texas and southeastern New Mexico in the wake of a departing low pressure system currently over east Texas.
323 AM CST Tue Feb 21 2017 A warm and generally uneventful weather day is on tap today, as an upper level ridge axis just to our west moves over the Texas South Plains region later today, then shifts east tonight. Relatively mild will continue tonight, although we are siding with the lower end of guidance due to light wind and dry air. On Wednesday, a short wave trough will dig across the Sierra Nevada mountains.
The relatively baggy pressure gradient with the passing cold front should allow for patchy fog to linger into the early morning as well. Warm air advection does develop during the afternoon hours, which combined with the sunshine should help temperatures reach record highs in the lower to middle 60s across most of the area. Lows tonight should remain mild in the lower to middle 40s. Precip associated with the low will remain well to our north, but an extra push of warm air on a southwest breeze will give us a chance at highs around 70 across southern WI.
/issued 532 PM CST Mon Feb 20 2017/ The strong upper level ridge that brought near record heat to the Mid South this afternoon will move east this evening as a deep upper level trough approaches and cuts off as an upper low over the lower Mississippi Valley. The upper low should shift southeast into the northeast Gulf of Mexico by Wednesday with upper level ridging quickly building back into the area. Highs should reach into the lower and mid 70s.
A cold front Tuesday night will usher in a period of cold unsettled weather through the end of the week. A mild and moist southwest flow remains in place over the forecast area this evening ahead of a trough over the West Coast. A shift to a much cooler pattern will begin tomorrow night as the trough over the West Coast pushes a cold front into northern Utah.
336 AM EST Tue Feb 21 2017 Showers will be possible today into tonight along a weak cold front. High pressure is forecast to provide mainly dry weather on Wednesday.
Water vapor imagery reveals center of closed low over southeast Texas, moving eastward.
Cooler and showery weather is forecast for Wednesday and continuing for the rest of the work. Drier but cooler weather is forecast for the upcoming weekend. /sb 00Z TAFS: A band of rain and snow associated with a quick moving low pressure system will exit the Idaho Panhandle and northeast Washington between 00z-02z. Precipitation may begin as freezing rain at Moses Lake and Ephrata before temps warm above freezing by late morning.
Northwest flow will usher in dry air today with a cold front pushing through this evening bringing very pleasant conditions to the region. A convergent pattern will set in as an upper ridge anchors itself over the central plains.
The higher level offshore flow. Upper air maps this morning shows axis of deep layer trof digging southeast across the Appalachians. forecasters have extended the high surf advisory into the remainder of the day. Water vapor imagery shows a large area of darkening (dry slot) surging southeast across Virginia through east Texas at the base of the long wave trof. Meanwhile, an upper trough continues to progress eastward across the eastern U. As this trough moves eastward today. The drier airmass will create large diurnal swings in temps with highs in the low 90s temps to warm rapidly, into the upper 80s/low 90s today with overnight lows in the mid 60s across inland areas to low 70s along the coast.
1236 PM CDT TUE JUN 7 2016 High pressure will continue to move across the region with mainly clear skies this afternoon and evening at all terminals. The mid and upper level trough off the Texas coast will close off again over Deep South Texas and northern Mexico today into Wednesday. As a result, the low and mid level flow across the southern CWA veers more easterly and the pool of moisture across the Coastal Plains is advected farther west through southern areas Today and Wednesday.
644 PM EDT TUE JUN 7 2016 Expansive high pressure will continue to build into the region from the northwest through the end of the week. The high will then move offshore this weekend. Embedded within this trough, a dry/reinforcing cold front is progged to drop through the area late tonight. By daybreak Wednesday, expect low temps in the lower to mid 60s most areas. Wednesday and Wednesday night: A vigorous mid/upper level trough will swing through New England on Wednesday and northwest flow will set up across the eastern CONUS through Wednesday night. An expansive area of high pressure extending out of central Canada will build into the region through the same time. The most notable change will be much cooler temperatures. Overnight lows will fall into the low 60s inland.
253 PM CDT TUE JUN 7 2016 Generally quiet and warm weather is expected for the next several days as an upper level ridge controls the weather over North and Central Texas.
115 PM MST TUE JUN 7 2016 A gradual cooling trend will take place through this weekend as high pressure is slowly displaced and as moisture increases later in the week.
Tonight Through Wednesday night Arkansas continues to sit in northwest flow between an amplified ridge over the rockies and east coast troughing. A weak wind profile throughout the highly mixed boundary layer should keep winds below 10 knots. Northeast Arkansas, which lies closer in proximity to the large scale thermal trough, and higher elevations in the Ozarks, will stay closer to average. Conditions will be similar on Wednesday as the low and mid level ridge of high pressure moves overhead. As the high slides eastward, winds will become more easterly. That said, pwats will still be in the lower 1 inch range and large scale subsidence will still prohibit any type of precipitation in the area for the period.
303 PM CDT TUE JUN 7 2016 A weak mid level low over the great basin situated south of the ridge axis will migrate into the region Wednesday.
More storms are possible tonight in the High Plains, which may reach into western parts of Oklahoma and north Texas in the morning.
Low pressure will nudge into the region over the rest of the week.
(Issued 1051 AM CDT TUE JUN 7 2016) Temps this morning were a few degrees cooler than yesterday and could feel the lower dewpoints already as well. Current temps across the TN Valley are in the lower 80s already with plentiful sunshine. The cold front is still to our NW and will move across the forecast area this afternoon. Therefore, adjusted the highs up a degree or so and did the same with today's dewpoints. JMS For 18Z TAFs: Will keep wind speeds at 15 knots gusting to 25 knots in the wake of a cold front that has moved southeast of the HSV and MSL terminals.
245 PM EDT TUE JUN 7 2016 Showers and a few thunderstorms can be expected until high pressure builds on Wednesday. Any storms that do form are likely to contain hail given the aforementioned parameters, and wind gusts to about 25 mph can be expected as the low level lapse rates steepen under the cooling aloft. Sub average near-term temperature can be expected under the broad trough, with readings forecast using consensus-short guidance. The upper trough axis is then forecast to shift quickly eastward as Wednesday progresses, so the previously forecast dry and clearing trend was maintained for the afternoon.
A second mid- level trough is progged to translate south-southeast across the Great Lakes from Ontario Canada. However, this trough doesn't look to support any precipitation as the model soundings are indicating a dry profile. Wednesday looks quiet as a broad ridge looks to build east over the Intermountain West.
329 PM EDT TUE JUN 7 2016 Expansive high pressure will continue to build into the region from the northwest through the end of the week. The high will then move offshore this weekend. High pressure continues to build into the region this afternoon with a dry reinforcing cold front progged to drop through the area late tonight. Low temps will drop into the low to mid 60s. Wednesday and Wednesday night: A vigorous mid/upper level trough will swing through New England on Wednesday and northwest flow will set up across the eastern CONUS through Wednesday night. An expansive area of high pressure extending out of central Canada will build into the region through the same time. The most notable change will be much cooler temperatures. Overnight lows will fall into the low 60s inland.
300 PM CDT TUE JUN 7 2016 A quiet evening ahead as a ridge of high pressure gradually breaks down and shifts east. Much of the mid-longer range portion of the forecast will be dominated by strong upper level ridge and associated summer-like temperatures and humidity.
High pressure aloft will strengthen once again across the Great Basin Wednesday, then shift east as a storm system enters the Pacific Northwest late in the week.
This high pressure will shift se into the Ohio river valley later in the week with deepening e-se flow in low lvls. Also, warming trend to gradually continue with upper ridging to the west and a slight temp creep upwards as ground become drier.
131 PM CDT TUE JUN 7 2016 08z/3am surface analysis shows cold front settling south of the Ohio River, while 1017mb high builds into the Northern Plains. Northwesterly winds around the high will bring a cooler/drier airmass into central Illinois today. High temperatures will be considerably cooler than yesterday, only reaching the middle 70s. Big pattern change is still slated for the end of the week, as persistent upper trough over eastern Canada lifts northeastward and is replaced by a pronounced upper ridge.
413 PM CDT TUE JUN 7 2016 A weak front pushing into the area from the north will help to reinforce the dry and well-mixed airmass while ridging aloft helps to maintain hotter daytime temperatures.
As Tropical Storm Colin heads out to sea, a trailing cold front will move across central NC today. Behind the front, high pressure will build in for the next couple of days. A cold front appears to now be reaching the eastern half of the forecast area with mid to upper 60s dewpoints across the east with mid and even low 50s everywhere else. Highs this afternoon topping out in the mid 80s for the most part with lows tonight in the low to mid 60s with a few upper 50s mixed in across the west. With high pressure moving into place expect highs in the low 80s with even a few upper 70s possible in the Triad. Lows in the low to middle 50s.
Cold front continues crossing Middle Tennessee this morning and stretches roughly from Lobelville to Crossville at this hour. Much drier air with dewpoints in the lower to middle 50s will spread southward behind the front through the day.
An upper level ridge will shift east tonight with increasing southerly flow aloft. A series of systems bring cooler temperatures and showers to Washington and Oregon for the rest of the week.
203 PM EDT TUE JUN 7 2016 Low pressure will remain stalled to our northwest tonight then slowly move to our northeast on Wednesday.
Dry high pressure will then build in from the northwest and linger through the remainder of the week. At the surface, drier and cooler high pressure will steadily build in from the west. Breezy to windy conditions from late day deep mixing will gradually diminish this evening, although nighttime gusts may continue along the higher ridges in cold advection. As of 255 AM Tuesday: on Wednesday, the region will remain under dry NW flow as the H5 trough axis swings over the Atlantic coast. At the sfc, high pressure will build across the southern Appalachians from the Mid West.
347 PM EDT TUE JUN 7 2016 Trough axis aloft tonight affects northern zones. Center of high pressure crosses Wednesday night.
149 PM EDT TUE JUN 7 2016 High pressure will move from the northern plains this morning to the midwest tonight in the wake of a departing cold front.