Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
High pressure building into the region for tonight and will lead to minimal impacts into Friday afternoon. The cold front driving late Friday's thunderstorms is expected to push east and south of the area.
1237 PM CDT Thu Jul 16 2020 Latest upper level analysis has a long wave trough over the Central Plains extending from a closed low over over central Manitoba as a ridge builds over the western High Plains and northern Rockies. On Friday, warmer temps move into western and central Nebraska. A subtropical ridge remains centered across the Southern U.
237 PM MDT Thu Jul 16 2020 RH's starting to drop into the upper teens as of 2 PM MDT, staying on track to continue to drop into the low teens later this afternoon. Hi-Res models still hint at an isolated high based thunderstorm occurring over the western foothills and Wheatland county tonight as low pressure and weak low-level convergence occurs along the hills, with brief gusts up to 50 mph possible. A cold front will pass over the area on Friday, but not before good mixing can occur in the late morning and early afternoon. It will be the hottest day of the week, with temperatures reaching the upper 90s at some locations, and another dry one with humidities again dropping into the low teens.
Scattered showers and storms continue to develop with the advance of a weak cold front across Ohio. That front extends from low pressure digging across Lake Erie - convergence area east of that low and the frontal encroachment will continue to provide lift in the warm, humid, and modest-deep-layer-shear environment over the Upr OH.
Even to coolest solutions keep the higher elevation far western counties no cooler than the upper 60s overnight.
Temperatures Thursday in the 90s will climb Friday into the mid 90s to even the low 100s Friday.
327 PM EDT Thu Jul 16 2020 A sprawling area of high pressure centered near the northeastern United States stretches southwest into the northern Gulf of Mexico. What used to be an undulation in the easterlies along the southern flank of ridge a few days ago (see San Juan's sounding history), has deamplified and transitioned to just broad curvature. The Florida Keys will remain along the southern flank of the subtropical ridge through the next seven days.
Widespread showers and thunderstorms will be seen through the rest of the day along and south of I-12 as the low moves slowly east through the day. but if it does peak out temps will quickly shoot towards the lower 90s.
954 AM MDT Thu Jul 16 2020 High pressure aloft continues to keep the area dry and mostly clear today and Friday.
143 PM EDT Thu Jul 16 2020 Showers and thunderstorms return this afternoon and evening through Friday with a trough of low pressure.
Tomorrow will much more sunshine and temps seasonal i the lower 90s with heat indices around 100-105.
A broad upper trough will push through the PAC NW tonight and tomorrow. At the surface, the associated cold front will make its way across southeast Idaho tomorrow afternoon.
Mostly unobstructed skies and rising mid-level heights will allow for highs to be warmer than today; in the mid to upper 80s.
1252 PM CDT Thu Jul 16 2020 The upper ridge continues over Arkansas today. A cold front is located across north Arkansas and scattered showers and thunderstorms are developing along the front. Today through Friday night Pattern this morning is dominated by a broad mid level ridge which covers the majority of the central and southern conus. Position of this anticyclone has pushed the overall storm track across the central plains and into the Ohio Valley. With the center of the high over central Texas, numerous upper impulses will travel along the northern periphery of said feature. High temperatures Friday will be just a touch cooler over the northeast with increased pops and cloud cover but remain hot elsewhere. Ridge will begin to expand over the area as the period ends.
Friday the best conditions for a slight chance of afternoon thunderstorms will shift to Southwest Montana and the higher terrain of eastern Lemhi County.
239 PM MDT Thu Jul 16 2020 A ridge departing to our east tonight will allow for a weak short wave trough to move in Friday. A cold front will move through during the afternoon and evening hours, but temperatures ahead of the front will rise well into the 80s and low 90s for most of Northeast Montana. Any thunderstorms associated with the cold front Friday look to hold off until the front reaches North Dakota. As the main upper level trough moves in Friday evening/night we will see the chances for showers increase across the area.
Highs over the weekend will be in the low to mid 90s with heat index values around 100.
Temperatures remain an average of 1-2 degrees cooler than this time yesterday in places with cloud cover and a degree or two warmer under the clear skies. For tonight, a dry forecast will continue with lows back into the lower 70s in the Hill Country and in the middle to upper 70s elsewhere.
155 PM EDT Thu Jul 16 2020 Surface and upper level ridging will remain over the region for the next couple of days so thunderstorm threat appears low. An upper level ridge over the region. Afternoon high temperatures will be near or a few degrees above normal in the low to mid 90s. Lows tonight will fall into the low and middle 70s. Upper ridge should remain over the area through Friday night with resulting mid level subsidence inversion limiting overall convection across the area. Surface pressure ridge continues to extend inland from off the Mid Atlantic coast with trough in the Carolina Mountains and Upstate Region.
Upper level flow will become largely zonal as broad upper level ridging builds to our south over the weekend.
Temperatures are running 3 to 6 degrees cooler this afternoon in response to increased clouds and showers with as much as a ten degree difference near Monticello. The area of high pressure centered over the Southern Plains will begin to slowly drift westward beginning tonight and continuing on Friday. Moisture riding the backside of the ridge will continue to stream into the eastern and southern zones, resulting in another round of showers and thunderstorms Friday afternoon. Friday night looks to be fairly dry as the high continues to drift to the west, shutting off that tap of subtropical moisture to our region.
This activity in addition to at least some lingering cloud cover during the daytime hours may cap off high temperatures in the upper 80s to mid 90s, with the highest temperatures across western Missouri where clouds/precipitation would clear first.
The cold front associated with yesterday's storm system has pushed south of Illinois, with cooler and drier air spread throughout central IL. Expect partly to mostly cloudy skies late this morning, trending toward clearing this afternoon as high pressure builds over central Illinois.
High pressure to our east will keep our region in south to southwest flow through the weekend.
High pressure will expand west into the Great Basin heading into the upcoming weekend. The upper high centered across the southern plains will begin a slow westward expansion which will result in a broad upper high settling over much of the Great Basin/desert southwest this weekend.
Today, passing surface cold front will increase westerly winds to 15-20kts with gusts up to 25kts, except at site DLS where winds will increase to 20-25kts with gusts up to 30kts possible.
1125 AM MDT Thu Jul 16 2020 Current surface map places weak trof across northwest South Dakota into northeast Wyoming. Surface trof settles across central South Dakota this afternoon. Low level thermal ridge peaks across the area Friday, pushing temperatures into the 90s.
Generally dry conditions are expected the next few days as high pressure remains dominant over the area. Cold front has stalled out just south of Illinois today and dewpoints this afternoon in the mid and upper 60s, down considerably from yesterday, are noted around central IL. With lows tonight in the mid 60s, there should be enough moisture for patchy fog development given high pressure, light winds, and clearing diurnal cumulus. As high pressure slips east of the area Friday, light southerly winds should set up, transporting warmer air and higher dewpoints back into central IL. Heat and humidity continue to increase into the weekend in south to southwesterly flow, with dewpoints expected to reach the mid 70s and highs in the low to mid 90s.
An upper low currently centered over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico continues to shift south of the local area, opening into a weak inverted trough as it then shifts west across the central Gulf. Quiet weather is expected tonight as a weak ridge builds over the area in the wake of the passing upper low. Subsidence and drier air beneath the ridge should otherwise keep things in check and most will see sunny skies prevail. Despite the drier air settling in aloft, there will still be plenty of moisture packed down low in the boundary layer, with surface dewpoints holding steady in the low to mid 70s.
330 PM EDT Thu Jul 16 2020 Ridging will gradually shift offshore through Friday, where it will remain through late week. These iso showers will dissipate with loss of afternoon heating, and a settled night is on tap as strong ridging persists aloft. Lows near climo for the peak of the summer, generally in the low 70s. Large scale subsidence continues on Friday as sfc ridging shifts offshore, with low level flow becoming srly to swrly. High temps a degree or two higher as low lvl thicknesses rise, with many areas reaching the low 90s, with upr 80s beaches.
114 PM PDT Thu Jul 16 2020 A weak weather disturbance and natures air conditioner from the Delta Breeze has kept things on the cooler side today.
1244 PM EDT Thu Jul 16 2020 Showers and thunderstorms return today through part of Friday with a trough of low pressure.
302 PM CDT Thu Jul 16 2020 Short term will remain quiet and hot as upper level high pressure dominates the weather pattern. Tonight and early tomorrow morning light southerly to southwesterly winds will persist which will help to keep overnight lows near to slightly warmer than what was observed this morning (upper 60's across the SW Panhandle to mid 70's across the Rolling Plains. This will keep high temperatures near the century mark for most locations with slightly warmer temperatures across the Rolling Plains. /WCI Warm and dry start to the weekend as the upper level ridge remains overhead.
Deep layer ridging will build in behind a westward moving tropical wave with increasing dry air in the 700-300mb layer and PWATs dropping off to 1. Aside from the dwindling rain chances, the heat will continue with highs in the mid 90s and heat indices in the low/mid 100s.
The center of an upper ridge is very near the DFW Metroplex but should retrograde back towards West Texas over the next 24 to 36 hours. With the center of the ridge farther west and a mid-level trough moving onto the Texas Coastal Bend, the sea breeze may return to our southernmost counties/parishes in Deep East Texas and Central Louisiana.
Strong upper level ridge remains from North Texas through the Carolinas the next 7 days with deep easterly flow across forecast area. Expect highs in the lower 90s with a max heat index of 100 to 105 each day. The high pressure ridge axis remains north of the coastal waters through the period.
350 PM CDT Thu Jul 16 2020 This afternoon the inverted trof/tropical wave in eastern Louisiana that has been stuck has finally begun moving to the west and is creeping into south central Louisiana attm. afternoon temperatures will range in the lower 90s.
211 PM EDT Thu Jul 16 2020 High pressure over the east coast and a frontal system across the midwest will keep our area in a southerly flow through Friday.
Max temps in the upper 80s along the coast to the lower 90s just inland from the coast and across the interior.
147 PM PDT Thu Jul 16 2020 High pressure to the east will bring a warming trend through the weekend.
245 PM CDT Thu Jul 16 2020 WV imagery shows the upper ridge centered over north central Texas, and extending east to the Carolinas and beyond. The ridge is forecast to remain elongated across the southeastern CONUS thru the extended, and develop into the SW CONUS over the weekend.
A cold front will sweep through the region late Friday. However, a discrete cell or two may fire along the warm front that will stretch from around Faulkton to the ND/SD/MN border around 0z. Significantly drier air with the cold front will enhance lapse rates and set the stage for some very strong winds. There are a number of opportunities for moisture despite high pressure making a very slow transition across the Dakotas.
340 PM CDT Thu Jul 16 2020 Current surface analysis places lows over the Canadian Rockies and over northeast Manitoba, while ridge settles through the plains. Upper level analysis places broad trough over the upper Midwest into the Great Lakes, with ridge passing just to the east of the northern Rockies. ridge pushes to the east while low works southeasterly into Saskatchewan. With that setup and the high instability, very large hail continues to be the initial main concern.
STP RH's starting to drop into the upper teens as of 2 PM MDT, staying on track to continue to drop into the low teens later this afternoon. Hi-Res models still hint at an isolated high based thunderstorm occurring over the western foothills and Wheatland county tonight as low pressure and weak low-level convergence occurs along the hills, with brief gusts up to 50 mph possible. A cold front will pass over the area on Friday, but not before good mixing can occur in the late morning and early afternoon. It will be the hottest day of the week, with temperatures reaching the upper 90s at some locations, and another dry one with humidities again dropping into the low teens.
Generally dry conditions are expected the next few days as high pressure remains dominant over the area. So still believe temps will drop into the lower to middle 60s overnight. Cold front has stalled out just south of Illinois today and dewpoints this afternoon in the mid and upper 60s, down considerably from yesterday, are noted around central IL. With lows tonight in the mid 60s, there should be enough moisture for patchy fog development given high pressure, light winds, and clearing diurnal cumulus. As high pressure slips east of the area Friday, light southerly winds should set up, transporting warmer air and higher dewpoints back into central IL. Heat and humidity continue to increase into the weekend in south to southwesterly flow, with dewpoints expected to reach the mid 70s and highs in the low to mid 90s.
As the upper level trough passes overhead, the surface boundary continues to edge SE through central KY. Mild morning min temps in the upper 60s to low 70s will give way to afternoon highs in the low 90s. Dew points in the low to mid 70s will push Heat Indices into the upper 90s with some possibly hitting 100.
Current surface analysis places lows over the Canadian Rockies and over northeast Manitoba, while ridge settles through the plains. Upper level analysis places broad trough over the upper Midwest into the Great Lakes, with ridge passing just to the east of the northern Rockies. ridge pushes to the east while low works southeasterly into Saskatchewan. With that setup and the high instability, very large hail continues to be the initial main concern.
Areas that didn't see convection remained warmer but could see a faster rate in temperature drop with better radiational cooling potential under clearer skies. BW Chattanooga Airport, TN 74 94 75 95 75 / 10 40 10 40 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 73 93 73 93 73 / 20 50 20 40 20 Oak Ridge, TN 73 93 73 93 72 / 20 50 20 40 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 71 89 69 90 69 / 20 60 20 40 20.
813 PM EDT Thu Jul 16 2020 Surface and upper level ridging will remain over the region for the next couple of days so thunderstorm threat appears low. An upper level ridge over the region. Afternoon high temperatures will be near or a few degrees above normal in the low to mid 90s. Lows tonight will fall into the low and middle 70s. Upper ridge should remain over the area through Friday night with resulting mid level subsidence inversion limiting overall convection across the area. Surface pressure ridge continues to extend inland from off the Mid Atlantic coast with trough in the Carolina Mountains and Upstate Region.
1001 PM EDT Thu Jul 16 2020 Ridging will gradually shift offshore through Friday, where it will remain through late week. Large scale subsidence continues on Friday as sfc ridging shifts offshore, with low level flow becoming srly to swrly. High temps a degree or two higher as low lvl thicknesses rise, with many areas reaching the low 90s, with upr 80s beaches.
A weak nearly stationary upper level trough has been spinning just off of the western California coast near the Point of Conception. This trough has little to no moisture to work with and the main impacts from this system is lowering synoptic heights slightly and therefore keeping temperatures across the region right around normal high levels. The second impact is for smoke in areas around the Mineral fire in western Fresno County and with the northerly flow on the eastern periphery of the upper low is pushing some of the smoke northward into western parts of Merced County and even up into the Bay area.
Thus, a few showers may drift onshore, especially towards sunrise, with the highest chance of this occurring along the Treasure Coast. Morning lows in the low to mid 70s inland, while easterly flow keeps coastal temperatures in the upper 70s, even approaching 80.
639 PM EDT Thu Jul 16 2020 Surface and upper level ridging will remain over the region for the next couple of days so thunderstorm threat appears low. An upper level ridge over the region. Afternoon high temperatures will be near or a few degrees above normal in the low to mid 90s. Lows tonight will fall into the low and middle 70s. Upper ridge should remain over the area through Friday night with resulting mid level subsidence inversion limiting overall convection across the area. Surface pressure ridge continues to extend inland from off the Mid Atlantic coast with trough in the Carolina Mountains and Upstate Region.
The high-res models throughout the day have trended down on the areal extent of convection moving across the area. but if the bulk of the high-res guidance is correct.
720 PM EDT Thu Jul 16 2020 Ridging will gradually shift offshore through Friday, where it will remain through late week. Mostly clear and calm skies tonight will allow for good radiational cooling, with lows reaching the low 70s inland and the mid to upper 70s along the coast. Large scale subsidence continues on Friday as sfc ridging shifts offshore, with low level flow becoming srly to swrly. High temps a degree or two higher as low lvl thicknesses rise, with many areas reaching the low 90s, with upr 80s beaches.
For all the southern sites however, have opted to maintain VCSH through the night and morning as an inverted trof advances west across the region. /issued 350 PM CDT Thu Jul 16 2020/ This afternoon the inverted trof/tropical wave in eastern Louisiana that has been stuck has finally begun moving to the west and is creeping into south central Louisiana attm. afternoon temperatures will range in the lower 90s.
Nevertheless, a scattered severe threat continues given adequate, but weakening deep layer shear over the region in conjunction with the advance of a weak cold front into the warm, humid airmass over the Upr OH.
/issued 245 PM CDT Thu Jul 16 2020/ WV imagery shows the upper ridge centered over north central Texas, and extending east to the Carolinas and beyond. The ridge is forecast to remain elongated across the southeastern CONUS thru the extended, and develop into the SW CONUS over the weekend.
/issued 302 PM CDT Thu Jul 16 2020/ Short term will remain quiet and hot as upper level high pressure dominates the weather pattern. Tonight and early tomorrow morning light southerly to southwesterly winds will persist which will help to keep overnight lows near to slightly warmer than what was observed this morning (upper 60's across the SW Panhandle to mid 70's across the Rolling Plains). This will keep high temperatures near the century mark for most locations with slightly warmer temperatures across the Rolling Plains. /WCI Warm and dry start to the weekend as the upper level ridge remains overhead.
Friday will be cooler with continued breezy conditions. Tonight and Friday: As the cold front moves through and a broad trough sits over the Inland Northwest, we'll have a short change in conditions before the start of a dry, warming trend. There will be cooler temperatures, breezy winds, and slight chance for mountain showers.
a continued weak flow as the low level jet remains out west should keep slow storm movements with periods of heavy rainfall.
For the rest of the night, moisture transport will again increase across wrn KS late tonight, with showers and storms developing over the high plains, and eventually shifting over portions of central KS late tonight through early on Fri. Surface dewpoints still in the lower 70s across the eastern half of KS will lead to heat index values of climbing to 103 to 106. Sat looks like the most sultry day of the weekend with the highest combination of max temps and 72-75 degree dewpoints.
944 PM CDT Thu Jul 16 2020 Skies have cleared out as the sun has set and high pressure continues to build over the area. High pressure building into the region for tonight and will lead to minimal impacts into Friday afternoon. The cold front driving late Friday's thunderstorms is expected to push east and south of the area.
Highs Friday will be a few to several degrees warmer than today especially over the eastern 1/2 of the CWA with maxes ranging from around 80F in the northwest to 90F in the southeast.
However, a thermal trough bringing warmer temperatures to coastal Del Norte and Humboldt counties has eased a bit.
Nevertheless, scattered showers and a few storms are still possible in conjunction with the advance of a weak cold front into the warm, humid airmass over the Upr OH.
Through the remainder of the afternoon and evening, we expect outflow boundaries coming off the higher terrain to be the main driver for convection.
Showers and storms will increase through the day with the highest chance of showers and storms during the afternoon hours. As high pressure shifts to the east, southerly flow will increase for the weekend.
Rising heights and increasing temperatures, along with the return of a very moist airmass characterized by dewpoints in the lower to middle 70s, will begin a multi-day stretch of oppressive heat indicies. Forecast remains on track for today, with highs expected to warm into the lower to middle 90s, and afternoon heat indicies between 100-110.
Temperatures will approach 90 degrees across most of the southern half of the region with the exception of the ridges. Broad upper level ridges and weak high pressure will keep the region dry on Saturday as well.
Low pressure tracking across southern Alberta Canada this morning. Cold front extends southeastward from the low into eastern Montana and northeastern Wyoming.
Patchy fog will again be a possibility late with lows in the lower and middle 70s.
but not enough confidence to even place a tempo, given the mid and upper level ridge over the southeast. Currently, there is a ridge of high pressure over much of the eastern half of the CONUS but by early Friday morning, it will continue its easterly transition with the high pressure still remaining in control for the next few days which will result in hot/humid temperature values.