Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
As evident on the visible satellite, a cold front bisects the area this afternoon, with temps ranging from seasonably reasonable low 80s near South Dakota to mid-90s in closer to Missouri. The low- level stability may decrease the odds of severe wind potential a bit, but forecast soundings don't exactly preclude it. The heat builds back into the area this weekend with a ridge pushing well into the Dakotas.
313 AM EDT Wed Jun 15 2022 High pressure will extend down from the north today and Thursday with temperatures closer to normal, but still very warm.
A well defined thermal ridge will be our main player again today, as a slow moving cold front approaches from the west. While 850mb temps will be notch below yesterday, with readings in the lower 20C range, plenty of sunshine and dewpoints in the 70s will support heat indices back in the 100-105F range. The cold front will remain active with storms today as it eventually reaches our NW counties toward mid-evening. The cold front will stall across south-central Illinois on Thursday, and be a focus for isolated thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening. In addition, some locally heavy rainfall may occur in the high PWAT air mass.
Winds will trend down Wednesday as an upper high strengthens over the area. A backdoor cold front will bring a wind shift to northeast NM, including KTCC, late Wednesday morning. Some patchy smoke expected tonight over northern New Mexico with warmer than normal low temperatures area wide.
126 AM EDT Wed Jun 15 2022 High pressure will extend down from the north Wednesday into Thursday with temperatures down closer to normal, but still very warm.
The slightly less humid air has resulted in 9 PM temps 1 to 3 degrees cooler than 24 hours ago. The upper level ridge axis is now east of the region which has been part of the reason for the drier air this afternoon. The ridge axis will remain east of the region tonight with dry weather and above normal temperatures continuing. Low temperatures Wednesday morning will be in the low to mid 70s. Wednesday night will see more dry and hot weather as the ridge axis remains to our east. By Thursday, the ridge axis begins to shift more to the west toward the Mid-South.
138 AM MDT Wed Jun 15 2022 The upper low spins over southern Saskatchewan, and its trough digs into the northern Rockies and plains. As the low pressure system shifts east today, a tight pressure gradient will result in strong winds across northwestern SD. Highs today will range from the lower 70s across northwestern SD to the lower 80s across southern SD. Upper ridging then builds over the central states, resulting in warmer and drier conditions.
Skies are clear across the region as a ridge begins to build in the wake of an upper level low that is now in the northern Great Plains.
934 AM EDT Wed Jun 15 2022 Hot, humid weather and periodic thunderstorm chances are expected until the passage of a cold front on Thursday. Hot and humid conditions are still forecast areawide with Heat indices at least 100F+ for a majority of the forecast area with an anomalously strong ridge over the area.
610 AM CDT Wed Jun 15 2022 At the start of the short term an upper low will be translating across the Southern Canadian Prairies within a slowly progressive upper pattern. As the progression occurs, the hot mid level ridge currently centered over the southeast CONUS will begin expanding to the north and west this weekend. The models have backed off slightly on the ridge intensity, but temps will still be quite warm/hot over the weekend.
As low pressure deepens over southern Manitoba a surge of 850 mb winds of 50 to 60 kts pushes across east central Montana into north Dakota this afternoon. The winds will then gradually decrease from west to east tonight as high pressure builds in from the west.
609 AM EDT Wed Jun 15 2022 High pressure will extend down from the north today and Thursday with temperatures closer to normal, but still very warm.
544 AM MDT Wed Jun 15 2022 Stacked low pressure system will be moving across southern Saskatchewan into Manitoba today. Showers rotating around the back of the low will slide south and east through the day. As the low moves off to the east, winds will diminish and skies clear overnight. Temperatures will warm from Thursday into the weekend as an upper ridge builds across the region.
618 AM CDT Wed Jun 15 2022 (Today and tonight) In the short term, the large upper high remains east of Oklahoma, but above average temperatures will continue into Wednesday. This would be in response to a weak front moving into that area coincident with an upper trough moving from the northern plains into the upper midwest.
548 AM MDT Wed Jun 15 2022 High pressure has begun to build into the Great Basin this morning behind a closed low pushing across Montana and southern Alberta. This transitional pattern will come to a close on Thursday, as high pressure builds into the Great Plains and low pressure deepens off the coast of northern California.
/86/ Upper level ridging remains in control and most areas will remain hot, humid, and dry through tonight.
1054 AM EDT Wed Jun 15 2022 Hot, humid weather and periodic thunderstorm chances are expected until the passage of a cold front on Thursday. Hot and humid conditions are still forecast areawide with Heat indices at least 100F+ for a majority of the forecast area with an anomalously strong ridge over the area.
A line of strong to severe storms is likely later today as the right entrance region of a 80 knot 500mb jet and surface cold front approach from the west. Expect high temperatures around 90F and dewpoints in the low 70s in east central Wisconsin, which will result in heat indices in the middle to upper 90s.
1020 AM EDT Wed Jun 15 2022 A weak back door cold front will stall over the Piedmont today. High pressure off the Mid-Atlantic will remain in place through Thursday.
526 AM EDT Wed Jun 15 2022 Hot, humid weather and periodic thunderstorm chances are expected until the passage of a cold front on Thursday. Hot and humid conditions are still forecast areawide with Heat indices at least 100F+ for a majority of the forecast area with an anomalously strong ridge over the area.
After another chilly start to the day, temperatures begin to trend warmer today.
549 AM CDT Wed Jun 15 2022 (12Z TAFS) For the 15/12Z TAFs, VFR conditions will dominate for the majority of the period as high pressure continues to maintain southerly flow. /26/ (Wednesday through Thursday) No relief from the ridge will be seen during the course of this short term forecast period. While the upper level ridge parked over the southeastern US expands westward as the week continues, maintaining the hot pattern of late, an increase in Saharan dust looks to contribute to keeping air temperatures below the century mark.
There is a slight chance for shower activity over the lower Atchafalaya Basin during max heating this afternoon.
736 AM EDT Wed Jun 15 2022 Hot, humid weather and periodic thunderstorm chances are expected until the passage of a cold front on Thursday. Hot and humid conditions are still forecast areawide with Heat indices at least 100F+ for a majority of the forecast area with an anomalously strong ridge over the area.
622 AM CDT Wed Jun 15 2022 (Today) Unseasonably hot/humid conditions continue this early Wed morning, as a strong upper ridge pattern remains centered near the mid TN Valley, while high pressure at the sfc lingers over the mid Gulf. Little change in this overall pattern is expected today, as lingering moisture below H7 helps to maintain dew pts in the lower/mid 70s. Some of the latest models/high res guidance are also suggesting an MCV like feature moving southward along the eastern fringe of the upper ridge axis later today before rotating westward into perhaps the eastern/central parts of the area late this afternoon.
631 AM CDT Wed Jun 15 2022 Water vapor satellite imagery and 500mb analysis show a fairly amplified pattern over the lower 48 with a stout upper trough positioned over the northern Rockies and southern Canada and a strong upper ridge over the Tennessee Valley. While a storm or two cannot be ruled out for areas to the west, warmer mid-level temperatures will likely keep a lid on storm chances as it currently stands. The lack of a surface focus along with upper ridging building into the central plains will likely hamper storm chances, though a storm or two can't be ruled out across portions of northeast Kansas into western Missouri Thursday evening.
456 AM MDT Wed Jun 15 2022 The upper low spins over southern Saskatchewan, and its trough digs into the northern Rockies and plains. As the low pressure system shifts east today, a tight pressure gradient will result in strong winds across northwestern SD. Highs today will range from the lower 70s across northwestern SD to the lower 80s across southern SD. Upper ridging then builds over the central states, resulting in warmer and drier conditions.
HEAT ADVISORY CONTINUES THROUGH 6PM THIS EVENING FOR LEVY Temps are on track to reach into the lower to mid 90s near the coast and in the mid to upper 90s inland. High pressure ridging across the waters will keep winds light with diurnal influences dominating the flow for the next couple of days.
Though inverted H5 trof/low is situated just southeast of the Big Bend area, locally we remain dominated by large ridge centered over TN Valley. Mid/upper ridging begins to expand back wwd toward the Plains Thursday.
920 AM EDT Wed Jun 15 2022 Surface ridging developing over the area today, with hot temperatures expected again during the afternoon. Dry air and subsidence aloft should help limit development overall, but PoPs are around 20-30%, with the highest chances across the interior. So, have opted to continue with VCTS wording for KISM/KMCO/KLEE, which have the highest confidence in seeing a nearby storm. Favorable boating conditions persisting under high pressure.
1002 AM EDT Wed Jun 15 2022 High pressure will extend down from the north today and Thursday with temperatures closer to normal, but still very warm.
Winds will trend down today as an upper high strengthens over the area. A backdoor cold front will bring a wind shift to northeast NM, including KTCC, this morning.
630 AM EDT Wed Jun 15 2022 A weak back door cold front will stall over the Piedmont today. High pressure off the Mid-Atlantic will remain in place through Thursday.
Warmer today and tomorrow before a potent low pressure system brings strong winds, critical fire weather conditions, and another round of cooler temperatures.
648 AM CDT Wed Jun 15 2022 (Today and tonight) Much of west Texas will remain between two upper-level features today: A trough over the northern high plains and a ridge over the southeast US. By this evening, the trough will shift northeastward into central Canada, which will allow the ridge to start building back westward across the southern plains overnight.
458 AM MDT Wed Jun 15 2022 High pressure has begun to build into the Great Basin this morning behind a closed low pushing across Montana and southern Alberta. This transitional pattern will come to a close on Thursday, as high pressure builds into the Great Plains and low pressure deepens off the coast of northern California.
356 AM MDT Wed Jun 15 2022 Currently, cold front has passed through all of the eastern plains early this morning, with cooler air banked up against the eastern mountains as of 09z. For today, upper trough pulls away into the upper Midwest/srn Canada by evening, leading to a gradual relaxation of mid/upper level flow across the state. As a result, surface winds over the region should be lighter than the past several days, with just a few pockets of afternoon gusts over 20 kts near the NM border and over the higher peaks of the central mountains. Max temps today will run a few degf cooler than yesterday over the eastern mountains and plains, while readings farther west over the Continental Divide and interior valleys end up 3-5 degf warmer than Tue as mid level heights/temps begin to rise.
506 AM EDT Wed Jun 15 2022 Hot, humid weather and periodic thunderstorm chances are expected until the passage of a cold front on Thursday. Hot and humid conditions are still forecast areawide with Heat indices at least 100F+ for a majority of the forecast area with an anomalously strong ridge over the area.
248 PM MDT Wed Jun 15 2022 Weak ridging continues to build in over the CWA this afternoon bringing clear skies to the region. Thursday, high pressure to our east and an approaching trough from the west will cause southwesterly flow to set up across our area.
HEAT: High temperatures (89-95 F) will be 1-2 degrees cooler today than yesterday while max heat index values (93-100 F) will be 1-5 degrees cooler. Lows tonight will be 2-3 degrees cooler than early today. SHOWER AND STORM POTENTIAL: A cold front will move near or possibly into the northern CWA this evening into tonight, possibly resulting in some convection. An approaching cold front may bring some scattered showers and storms across central Missouri late this evening into the overnight hours.
At the start of the short term an upper low will be translating across the Southern Canadian Prairies within a slowly progressive upper pattern. As the progression occurs, the hot mid level ridge currently centered over the southeast CONUS will begin expanding to the north and west this weekend. The models have backed off slightly on the ridge intensity, but temps will still be quite warm/hot over the weekend.
Temperatures will again reach the 90s by early afternoon, pushing heat index values in the low 100s across the region, although some uncertainty remains with the degree of cloud cover. A slow moving cold front will approach from the west this evening, bringing the potential for scattered showers and storms, mainly across west- central Missouri.
328 PM CDT Wed Jun 15 2022 An upper trough will continue to move east tonight and Wednesday. Drier air will move into the region under the building upper ridge on Thursday. With drier air, decent mixing most of the day, and few clouds went toward the higher end for max Ts.
As isallobaric forcing and greater momentum transfer potential arrives from the west, a few high wind reports will be likely for western North Dakota under the High Wind Warning over the next several hours. Thursday, the pressure gradient shifts east with the exiting low and high pressure builds from the west. Partly cloudy skies Thursday and warmer temperatures are forecast with highs in the 70s across the state. Starting Thursday, an upper level ridge will build as the synoptic pattern becomes amplified and an upstream trough deepens and closes over the Pacific coast. The upper level ridge axis will park over the Northern Plains this weekend, which will bring the hottest temperatures of the year so far. Additionally, the ridging pattern will allow for southerly return flow and the poleward advection of low level moisture, bringing surface dew points into the 60s.
1122 AM MDT Wed Jun 15 2022 Currently, cold front has passed through all of the eastern plains early this morning, with cooler air banked up against the eastern mountains as of 09z. For today, upper trough pulls away into the upper Midwest/srn Canada by evening, leading to a gradual relaxation of mid/upper level flow across the state. As a result, surface winds over the region should be lighter than the past several days, with just a few pockets of afternoon gusts over 20 kts near the NM border and over the higher peaks of the central mountains. Max temps today will run a few degf cooler than yesterday over the eastern mountains and plains, while readings farther west over the Continental Divide and interior valleys end up 3-5 degf warmer than Tue as mid level heights/temps begin to rise.
250 PM CDT Wed Jun 15 2022 The current upper trough over the Central and Northern Plains will continue to shift north and east away from our region. Ridging quickly builds back in by Thursday and heat returns.
High level clouds were also lifting across the region in response to a weak upper low across southern Texas slowly lifting northward. this boundary remains just to the northwest of the CWA as the main upper level ridge of high pressure over the Eastern CONUS begins to retreat westward into the Southern Plains.
--Quite Breezy, Less Humid Thursday-- Still rather warm behind the cold front on Thursday with highs well into the 80s, but arrival of dew points in the 50s from the west will usher in less oppressive conditions. Once deeper mixing develops in the afternoon and 40-45kt westerly low level jet arrives within base of upper trough digging into the nrn GrtLks region, expect some healthy gusts of 30 to 40 mph in the afternoon.
Even warmer temperatures are expected on Thursday, especially for lower elevations.
Combined with the higher relative humidity values, heat indices have climbed into the 105 to 110 degree range. It will once again be a very warm, muggy night as low temperatures bottom out in the low to mid 70s.
132 PM EDT Wed Jun 15 2022 Hot, humid weather is expected through Thursday, with thunderstorms chances increasing through Thursday afternoon ahead of a cold front. Hot and humid conditions will continue through this evening as heat indices reach 100F+ for a majority of the forecast area underneath anomalously strong ridge. Near to record high minimum temperature will be possible overnight as the hot airmass remains in place under the slowly modifying upper ridge.
1141 AM CDT Wed Jun 15 2022 (Rest of Today) Hot and humid weather continues today across the Tennessee Valley as a strong upper-ridge remains centered over the area. Abundant moisture persists underneath this ridge as seen by dewpoints currently in the low to mid 70s. Main forecast adjustment was to bump temperatures up slightly based on current obs/trends which indicated temperatures were a little warmer than anticipated.
One area we will be monitoring closely for convective initiation over the next few hours will be in the vicinity of the western Carolinas and Georgia where a highly unstable airmass is currently in place with MLCAPE values in excess of 3500-4000 J/KG early this afternoon along the periphery of the upper level ridge of high pressure.
Otherwise, the rest of the week and weekend look to be cooler with drier conditions as high pressure dominants. Anderson (Issued 322 PM CDT Wed Jun 15 2022) Gusty south to southwest winds are expected into this evening, ahead of an approaching cold front. This cold front is expected to move through this evening, bringing the potential for severe storms mainly impacting KMSN/KJVL between 23-01Z, KSBM between 00-02Z, KUES/KENW/KMKE between 01-04Z. Large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes will be possible, with the highest threat back towards KMSN/KJVL/KSBM. Thunderstorms, some possibly severe, will form along and ahead of the cold front and move through the region tonight. High pressure should move southeast through the Great Lakes region this weekend, bringing somewhat lighter winds.
Low temperatures are expected to be in the lower 50s to around 60. High temperatures rise into the lower 90s to 102 degrees (hottest in Logan and Gove counties. Low temperatures are expected to be in the lower 60s to around 70.
/Issued 146 PM CDT Wed Jun 15 2022/ /Through Tomorrow Night/ North and Central Texas remains wedged between a mid-level ridge to our east and trough to our northwest, keeping the area under strong southwesterly flow. The low clouds should dissipate by mid-morning, leaving behind mostly sunny skies as temperatures once again rise into the upper 90s to around 102. Although the highest concentration of dust should be a few thousand feet above the the surface, those with respiratory conditions should consider spending time indoors if dust is usually a problem.
1230 PM CDT Wed Jun 15 2022 Water vapor satellite imagery and 500mb analysis show a fairly amplified pattern over the lower 48 with a stout upper trough positioned over the northern Rockies and southern Canada and a strong upper ridge over the Tennessee Valley. While a storm or two cannot be ruled out for areas to the west, warmer mid-level temperatures will likely keep a lid on storm chances as it currently stands. The lack of a surface focus along with upper ridging building into the central plains will likely hamper storm chances, though a storm or two can't be ruled out across portions of northeast Kansas into western Missouri Thursday evening.
338 PM EDT Wed Jun 15 2022 Warm, humid weather is expected through Thursday, but thunderstorm chance will be on the increase with the encroachment of a cold front. There remains a slight chance over the higher elevations given converged flow/lower free convection levels, but the ridge/subsidence remain dominant.
330 PM CDT Wed Jun 15 2022 A cold front moving into the area tonight will bring chances for showers and thunderstorms, and push the hottest air toward southern Illinois for Thursday. With the cold front stalled out over southern portions of the forecast area, frontogenesis along that zone or to the north should produce lift triggering additional thunderstorms Thursday evening into Thursday night. CAMs are becoming a little more coherent with developing thunderstorm complexes over that region, rapidly progressing south or southeastward toward the higher instability air.
236 PM CDT Wed Jun 15 2022 Broad troughiness to the north will gradually shift east through tomorrow. Temperatures tonight will be cooler but with some wind in place not expecting any stronger radiational cooling, so mostly mid 50s for lows.
Forecast Discussion: At 19Z, a cold front was slowly progressing eastward through northeast Kansas, and was located near a line from Seneca to Manhattan to Abilene. A cumulus field was evident on visible satellite ahead of the boundary, and temperatures were noticeably cooler west of the front.
The main severe thunderstorm threat this afternoon has moved east of the CWA, with the surface cold front currently moving through Eau Claire, Chippewa, and Rusk counties to Rusk county. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms will end from west to east through late afternoon; dry conditions then expected tonight and tomorrow behind the cold front. Temperatures will remain a few degrees below normal on Thursday with cooler air filtering into the region behind the cold front. Dew Points will be much more comfortable with values in the low to mid 50s, and RH values dropping to 30-40% during the afternoon.
1121 AM MDT Wed Jun 15 2022 High pressure has begun to build into the Great Basin this morning behind a closed low pushing across Montana and southern Alberta. This transitional pattern will come to a close on Thursday, as high pressure builds into the Great Plains and low pressure deepens off the coast of northern California.
Winds are relatively light for the urban corridor but are a bit more gusty in the high country. Expect little change overnight with light winds and lows falling back into the low 50s. Tomorrow will see a ridge begin to build back into the area and we'll see similar conditions as today. Mid-level temperatures are a few degrees warmer so highs should make it back into the low to mid 90s, with low 100s possible for the far eastern plains. Otherwise, dry conditions are likely over the high country like today, with elevated fire weather conditions continuing. High pressure ridge aloft will be building over the central plains while a strong low pressure area deepens over the Pacific Northwest.
/28/ Our weather continues to be stuck on repeat as the forecast area remains firmly under the grip of the large 595dm upper ridge. The center of the ridge remains across the Tennessee Valley today but its effects are felt across the entire Southeast back toward Texas. /28/ Prior discussion below: Upper level ridging remains in control and most areas will remain hot, humid, and dry through tonight.
What can I say? Looks like temperatures are 1-2 degrees warmer than this time yesterday likely due to the fact that dewpoints are ever so slightly lower.