Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1012 AM CDT MON JUL 11 2016 Thunderstorms are continuing to fire on the nose of the low level jet over eastern SD.
Temperatures are running 15 to 20 degrees cooler than 24 hours ago, in the wake of the cold front that passed through this morning. The effect of the cooler air on the fire activity will apparently be overwhelmed by the effects of stronger winds. Trailing cold front just pushing into northern Colorado at this time. This will bring cooler conditions today with highs in the mid to upper 80s across northeast Colorado. Even though it will be cooler today, expect relative humidities to fall into the teens this afternoon. The cold air advection behind the cold front will allow for good mixing, which should result in gust west winds this afternoon. Plan on upgrading the Fire Weather Watch to a Red Flag Warning due to the low relative humidity and gusty winds.
Overall, temperatures should be a bit "cooler" but still hot and humid with upper 80s and lower 90s expected by late this afternoon.
The main upper trough is shearing overhead along the Texas coast, with drier air sinking farther south. Again, there may be isolated elevated activity along the southern edge of the trough where moisture is relatively highest, but with the drier low levels, am not expecting much in the way of development. An upper level shear axis currently draped across East and Southeast TX, is progged to shift east today while the southern extent of the axis shifts west as an inverted trough wave.
959 AM EDT MON JUL 11 2016 High pressure continues today. Warmer and more humid weather returns as we head through the work week. Cold front crosses late in the week.
1037 AM EDT MON JUL 11 2016 High pressure will keep dry weather over the area today.
Weak upper trough overlays the area with precipitable water in excess of 1. Chance of convection will increase by this afternoon and evening as an upper low moves almost directly across the mid state and with plenty of moisture in place.
Warm frontal boundary moving northeast across the TAF sites.
With clouds and fog holding in the east, lowered the highs a degree or two, but kept values around 90.
Water vapor imagery and H5 RAP analysis indicated a weak area of low pressure approaching the CWFA from the west, with lingering showers/storms situated along the associated front arcing northward into Central TN/KY. Only a few isolated showers were continuing across portions of middle Tennessee with temps remaining nearly steady in the lower 70s. With the trough/boundary remaining near the area through the afternoon, will continue with higher chance pops.
1038 AM EDT MON JUL 11 2016 A trough of low pressure will strengthen across the interior Carolinas by midweek and persist through the end of the work week. Mostly sunny and toasty today as the subtropical ridge holds strong. West to west-southwest flow below 500 mb per 12Z KCHS sounding is allowing surface dewpoints to mix down into the lower 70s. The only exception may be interior SC where either the sea breeze pops a few storms late today and/or activity in the SC Midlands associated with the lee trough shifts into our inland zones.
701 AM CDT MON JUL 11 2016 07z/2am surface analysis shows 996mb low over South Dakota with warm front extending southeastward into the Lower Ohio River Valley. Further south, quiet weather is expected across central Illinois despite the advancing warm front. Will be a warmer and more humid day, with afternoon highs topping out in the upper 80s to around 90 degrees and dewpoints climbing into the lower 70s. As the South Dakota low tracks northeastward into Canada, it will gradually pull a cold front toward Illinois.
1232 PM EDT MON JUL 11 2016 High pressure overhead will slide to the east through mid-week Dry weather and low humidity will start the week. The middle of the week looks unsettled as the low level flow becomes southerly. Diurnal cu forming over the higher elevs and a few are getting to be moderate in vertical extent. Tranquil conditions prevail early this morning across the forecast area as high pressure remains the main player in our local weather today. as high pressure drifts east from the Ohio Valley and Upper Great Lakes region.
Deep layer ridge is draped across the area. With ridge over the area. slightly cooler along the coast.
/issued 430 AM CDT MON JUL 11 2016/ SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday): Latest water-vapor imagery shows the upper-level trough/shear axis moving off the lower Texas coast with mid-level dry air over much of Texas this morning.
938 AM EDT Mon Jul 11 2016 High pressure will move across the region today before moving off the coast Tuesday.
Expect mainly southeast winds of 10 to 20 mph with some higher gusts today at KFST, KMAF, and KINK east of the trough and westerly winds of 10 to 15 mph at the remaining terminals west of the trough.
However, the timing should be less than 30 minutes with the lower condition to keep out tempo group at this time for the KAPF taf site. /issued 424 AM EDT MON JUL 11 2016/ Subtropical ridge will dominate through the week. Dominating deep-layer subtropical ridge has changed little overnight and will change little through the short term. Expansive high pressure that has dominated the regions weather this July will continue, though expand northward into much of the southeastern United States. High pressure will continue to be the main weather influencer into the weekend, keeping prevailing winds out of the east-southeast at generally 15 knots or less and seas below 3 feet.
1035 AM EDT MON JUL 11 2016 RAP40 analysis shows the Bermuda Ridge axis has drifted into central/north FL with the axis extending from the FL Big Bend to Cape Canaveral. Furthermore, with the ridge axis positioned overhead, H85- H50 steering winds will be quite weak.
A weak ridge of high pressure aloft will move across the area today while low level flow will remain onshore. A trough of low pressure aloft and an associated front will give a threat of showers Tuesday.
By Tuesday night, there are some signals that the upper level ridge will break down sufficiently for an upper level disturbance to forcing a cluster of storms over the eastern Plains. Low pressure moving into the western (high) Plains will help increase south winds today with some moderate gusts possible at times.
534 AM MDT MON JUL 11 2016 Current surface map places cold front from central South Dakota in the Nebraska panhandle. Water vapor imagery shows upper low over Montana. For today, upper low lifts into southern Saskatchewan.
958 AM EDT MON JUL 11 2016 Weak high pressure centered just north of the region this morning will slide off the coast Tuesday morning.
647 AM CDT MON JUL 11 2016 Heat and humidity ahead of cold front moving into the area this afternoon, and potentially severe convection and heavy rain with the front this afternoon and evening, are the primary forecast concerns. Mid level ridging was evident on evening upper air charts extending from the Texas panhandle into the mid Missouri River Valley and into Minnesota. Upper low was moving across Idaho into Montana early this morning, as advertised by model output from the last several days.
818 AM PDT MON JUL 11 2016 A low pressure trough will bring cooler weather and more extensive coastal clouds through Tuesday.
High pressure will gradually build over the region today and persist through the end of the week. (Today and Tonight) As this weekends storm system, which brought some beneficial rains to the northwestern half of the forecast area, continues to exit the region to our east today, high pressure will strengthen across the eastern Pacific. A return of marine stratus/patchy fog will develop again overnight along the coast and in the Eel River Valley, with temperatures bottoming out in the lower 50s at most locations.
Temperatures have already reached the lower 80s in most areas, and have nudged highs up a degree or two, with more sunshine and the morning ILX sounding showing highs in the lower 90s. 07z/2am surface analysis shows 996mb low over South Dakota with warm front extending southeastward into the Lower Ohio River Valley. Further south, quiet weather is expected across central Illinois despite the advancing warm front. Will be a warmer and more humid day, with afternoon highs topping out in the upper 80s to around 90 degrees and dewpoints climbing into the lower 70s. As the South Dakota low tracks northeastward into Canada, it will gradually pull a cold front toward Illinois.
1235 PM EDT MON JUL 11 2016 High pressure over the area will move slowly east through Tuesday. A warm front will lift northeast across the area Tuesday.
Otherwise, we will be seeing a marked increase in the dewpoints as the later in the day as the surface warm front finally washes into Southeast Michigan. Periodic thicker mid cloud will continue to funnel through today as a warm frontal boundary works toward the region. Convectively enhanced disturbance embedded within the northern periphery of the building ridge will traverse the state today. Depending on extent of cloud debris, deeper mixing could yield a few warmer readings in the upper 80s. Southerly gradient will persist into midweek as the closed low over the Intermountain West this morning lifts north and east.
735 AM EDT MON JUL 11 2016 High pressure over the area will move slowly east through Tuesday. A warm front will lift northeast across the area Tuesday.
Upper level low across the southeast states will continue to provide unsettled weather for central Alabama over the next day or so. No reason to expect otherwise today, although the area most likely to be affected should shift a bit north with the drifting motion of the upper low. The arrival of the big upper level ridge that the models were predicting has been pushed back a bit, and is now forecast to establish next Monday/Tuesday. I'm beginning to wonder if this monster ridge is this summer's analog to the "GFS day 10 snowstorm" we frequently see in the winter.
Radar continues to show a few showers and thunderstorms across eastern parts of the Permian Basin into the low rolling plains this morning. Expect mainly southeast winds of 10 to 20 mph with some higher gusts today at KFST, KMAF, and KINK east of the trough and westerly winds of 10 to 15 mph at the remaining terminals west of the trough.
High pressure aloft and a surface thermal trough at the coast will keep dry, offshore flow going and VFR conditions over the entire area through the current TAF period.
A more significant and widespread cool down is forecast for the middle of the upcoming work week as an upper level trough deepens along the West Coast. An upper level low remains centered just south of the Monterey Bay region this morning with convection on the northeast side of the system. Most showers and thunderstorms remain to the east of I-5 at this time yet a few showers rotating around the low may creep into far eastern portions of San Benito County through early morning. As the current upper level low shifts inland today through Monday, a deeper marine layer is forecast to develop and will bring slight cooling to the coast while inland areas remain near seasonal averages. Further cooling is expected through midweek as another mid/upper level trough develops and deepens along the West Coast.
840 AM PDT SUN JUN 12 2016 Low pressure off the coast will move inland tonight and weaken through Monday.
957 AM EDT SUN JUN 12 2016 A cold front will move south through Pennsylvania early Sunday.
Still feel OK about the low/mid chance POPs over the northeast as moisture will continue there longer and better convergence on-going. The combination of weak impulse beneath upper level ridge and the sea breeze should once again be sufficient to trigger isolated to scattered convection.
1214 PM EDT SUN JUN 12 2016 A cold front will move south through Pennsylvania early Sunday.
Winds will remain west to northwest for the next few days as high pressure settles over the Gulf of Mexico.
1046 AM MDT SUN JUN 12 2016 Southerly flow continues through tonight before an upper level trough along the southern California coast kicks inland and through our area Monday afternoon. Sufficient daytime heating, lingering boundaries from leftover convection last night and our normal lift along the higher terrain will be enough to fire off additional activity today with the southern zones firing earlier on the edge of the drier air mass. Could see a few early morning cells Monday with another active afternoon expected as the trough swings through.
Current surface analysis places low over northwest South Dakota with warm front stretching to the east. Upper level analysis places trough over the far western United States with low cutting off towards southern California while ridge remains over the midwest. Colder airmass pulls in behind the low bringing much more pleasant temperatures to most of the area. Ahead of this feature, warmer temperatures are expected over the James River Valley region where modest instability is expected to develop. quiet weather is expected over most locations through much of the day before bottom end of west coast trough lifts through southwest flow and approaches the area.
920 AM EDT SUN JUN 12 2016 Cold front with showers and isolated thunderstorms today.
947 AM EDT SUN JUN 12 2016 Dry and cooler weather can be expected for the start of the new week. A surface cold front is ushering in a drier and cooler air mass with strong northerly winds. Temperatures will be a little tricky today as warm June sunshine will battle cooler air advecting in from the north. tax High pressure will rule for Monday, with dry weather and comfortable dewpoints.
near a slow moving weak closed low over Ern OK. Will also have to contend with heat indices ranging from 100-105 degrees across the srn zones of Deep E TX/Srn sections of Ncntrl LA given the current dewpoints in the mid/upper 70s and temps climbing to the lower 90s this afternoon.
A low pressure system will move across the region through mid-week, keeping temperatures near normal. Currently, a fuller latitude trough is centered over the US West Coast and effectively enveloping the local forecast area under dryslot subsidence, which is evident in current water vapor imagery. Forecast models through the first half of the week remain in good agreement that the aforementioned East Pacific trough will continue to slowly move across the SW Conus and be the primary influence on weather and temperatures. As the southern portion of this trough advances towards our CWA, there will be demonstrable dynamic forcing.
Despite surface cold front being well west into eastern IA, lingering instability and tightening low level frontogenetical forcing producing isolated to scattered thunderstorms over southwest WI.
747 AM EDT SUN JUN 12 2016 A cold front will move south through Pennsylvania early Sunday.
716 AM EDT SUN JUN 12 2016 Dry and cooler weather can be expected for the start of the new week. Isolated shower activity along and just south of the Mason-Dixon line this morning will quickly push south, spurred along by a quick moving cold front. The surface front, currently bi-secting the forecast area, has strong northerly flow behind it bringing much drier and cooler air in through the afternoon. High pressure will rule for Monday, with dry weather and comfortable dewpoints.
848 AM MST SUN JUN 12 2016 A low pressure system will move across the region through mid-week, keeping temperatures near normal. A slow moving upper level trough currently off the Southwest U. Currently, a fuller latitude trough is centered over the US West Coast and effectively enveloping the local forecast area under dryslot subsidence, which is evident in current water vapor imagery. Forecast models through the first half of the week remain in good agreement that the aforementioned East Pacific trough will continue to slowly move across the SW Conus and be the primary influence on weather and temperatures. As the southern portion of this trough advances towards our CWA, there will be demonstrable dynamic forcing.
945 AM EDT SUN JUN 12 2016 High pressure over the southern states will shift farther south as a weak cold front approaches from the north today. Partly cloudy skies this evening expected to clear overnight with low temperatures cooling into the lower 70s. With ridge aloft and dry airmass expect no precipitation. So dry forecast for Monday and slightly cooler with east flow.
459 AM PDT SUN JUN 12 2016 Low pressure will bring mostly cloudy skies to most of the area today along with local morning drizzle. An upper low sits atop of the area this morning. The lift assoc with this low has created a massive area of low clouds that covers all the coasts and vlys and xtnd deep into the mtn passes. The low and the strong onshore push will again keep most of the area cloudy through the afternoon. The cool air aloft with upper low will also destabilize the mtns which will see enough sunshine to warm up. but the marine inversion will be weaker as the result of the low passage and this will allow for better clearing everywhere xcp the beaches.
957 AM EDT SUN JUN 12 2016 Scattered storms will develop by late this afternoon with the highest chances across inland northeast Florida and the lowest chances across southeast Georgia.
630 AM CDT SUN JUN 12 2016 256 AM CDT Likely the most notable weather feature for today will be the much cooler and drier air flowing in from the North as the frontal boundary slips south of the forecast area by this afternoon. High pressure will continue to be an influence through tonight, but expect clouds to steadily increase as the channel of moisture/clouds across the Central Plains begins to pivot east late tonight. Thermal ridge will advect north Monday, bringing temps back to the upper 80s to around 90. As eluded too earlier, PWATs will be creeping up as well as dew points nearing the mid/upr 60s, resulting in apparent temps Monday afternoon in the lower to middle 90s.
947 AM EDT SUN JUN 12 2016 A cold front will move south through Pennsylvania early Sunday.
Temperatures will remain below normal through much of this week, but high pressure is forecast to build by late in the week bringing a return to hot weather. Additionally, this morning's high resolution models indicate additional showers and storms developing mainly on the higher terrain of our northwest counties, then drifting over the nearby valleys.
1005 AM EDT SUN JUN 12 2016 Aviation sections updated A weak cold front will slowly sag through central Indiana today and could be just enough to force a thunderstorm this afternoon across southern parts of the area. After that high pressure builds and dry weather is expected until Monday night. The strong upper ridge over the area gets suppressed starting Monday night and after that time will see thunderstorm chances every period as upper waves moves through the main flow and then a cut off upper low makes its way from the western Great Lakes to the Ohio Valley.
Weak high pressure will shift across the area today.
Ridge axis of Atlantic high pressure has built down across the region this morning, generating light and variable winds this morning. Drier low to mid level air has also settled in along the east coast with this ridge with morning sounding showing PW value of 1. Ridge axis of high pressure over the Atlantic will remain across central Florida today with light and variable winds this morning becoming E/SE around 5 to 10 knots into the afternoon as the east coast sea breeze forms and moves inland.
Dewpoints were in the lower 80s south of this boundary and mid 70s to the north. An upper level trough over western OK and TX is also expected to move eastward along with a trough at 200 and 300 mb. we'll also have to keep an eye on the trof currently in NW Tx as it makes its way toward NE Tx later in the aftn. The upper trof should dig SE into Louisiana tonight & Monday. Ridge starts building overhead Tue and should persist into the weekend.
with high pressure in place over the region once again. Given the higher instability/moisture. with highs in the low to mid 90s. Chattanooga Airport, TN 96 70 95 72 / 20 10 20 20 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 93 67 91 67 / 10 10 20 20 Oak Ridge, TN 94 68 91 67 / 10 10 20 20 Tri Cities Airport, TN 91 57 87 59 / 10 20 20 10.
Current surface observations across Wyoming show a weak cold front slowly moving southward across the state and position just north of Douglas and Lusk. This front will continue to slide southward today as the upper level ridge axis will gradually weaken east of the forecast area. as the Pacific upper level trough moves into Utah and western Colorado.
Again daytime heating and weak pre-frontal troughs/boundaries will have the biggest impact on sensible weather today. The main jetstream and cooler air continues to extend from central Illinois eastward into southern Ohio this morning. Temperatures are already in the lower to mid 80s. Therefore, highs in the lower 90s look reasonable in most locations despite expected cloud cover development. Combined with temperatures in the lower to mid 90s, heat index values will climb to between 100 and 105 degrees in spots. KTW (Issued 624 AM CDT SUN JUN 12 2016) For 12Z TAFs: MVFR visibilities have not been realized at the KMSL and KHSV terminals this morning, as light winds help keep temperatures slightly warmer than anticipated.
1029 AM EDT SUN JUN 12 2016 A cold front will shift south across the area through the rest of today. High pressure will build over the Ohio Valley tonight and build over the area Monday.
/issued 434 AM CDT SUN JUN 12 2016/ SHORT TERM (Today through Monday): Although 500 mb high pressure will be retrograding across the Gulf of Mexico, isolated showers and thunderstorms will remain possible for Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley today. However, tonight through Monday, as the ridge moves even closer to the BRO CWFA, with new and more amplified ridging developing over the Lone Star State in tandem, dry weather will prevail for the forecast area.
Weak to non-existent cool air advection along with ample sunshine will allow temperatures to climb to near or slightly above seasonal norms during the afternoon with highs reaching into the lower to mid 70s north into central zones, and mid to upper 70s south.
157 PM CST Thu Jan 5 2017 Arctic air continues to filter into the region this afternoon behind a strong cold front. Temperatures have struggled to reach freezing across the northern Permian Basin while locations along the Rio Grande are currently near 80 degrees! High clouds are also developing across the area with visible satellite showing a mountain wave signature over the Upper Trans Pecos region. The front has temporarily hung up against the higher terrain, but will push through the rest of the area tomorrow. Cloud cover and a continued cold, north wind will keep temperatures from reaching freezing along and north of the Pecos River Friday afternoon.
maintaining the low stratocu over NE TX/SE OK/SW AR. weak isentropic forcing continues well ahead of this colder air mass and attendant H850 trough over Deep E TX and N LA. Have updated the forecast to extend low chance pops farther W to the Lower Toledo Bend area based on current radar/sfc obs trends.
SHORT TERM (Tonight through Friday Night): Big story remains the approach and passage of a strong cold front tonight. Ahead of the front, light winds and pooling of moisture may lead to the development of patchy fog, primarily across the lower and mid Valley. By daybreak, temperatures will be in the lower 40s across the northern counties and temperatures will be falling into the mid to upper 40s across the Valley. Have nudged temperatures down a degree or two Friday night with model guidance trending cooler. This introduces freezing temperatures across portions of Jim Hogg, Brooks, and Zapata counties for several hours.
Though a bit warmer, things will still be well below normal on Friday. By Friday night all the models support clearing as high pressure briefly builds over the region. This type of pattern will promote excellent radiational cooling which will further strengthen valley inversions and should produce some freezing fog in the morning.