Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
410 PM EDT Mon Nov 1 2021 An upper-level composite analysis this afternoon reveals a deep layer mean anticyclone centered over eastern Cuba and the southern Bahamas. Ridges extend to the east and west of the center, with a progressive westerly flow regime prevailing over most of the North American midlatitudes. The dominant surface system is an anticyclone cnetered over the central Plains, with ridges extending both eastward and southward. Pockets of stratocumulus clouds have developed, spread in the inversion layer, and persisted across portions of the service area, including most of the lower Keys where it has been partly to mostly cloudy for much of the day. The current zonal upper-level flow pattern across the continental United States will transition to broad cyclonic flow over the eastern two thirds of the country with multiple, migratory short- wave troughs.
As for temperatures, lows tonight are expected to drop into the low 30s with highs only reaching into the low 40s tomorrow.
201 PM MDT Mon Nov 1 2021 Northerly flow aloft will continue over the region tonight as an upper trough continues to shift off to the southeast and a narrow upper ridge builds to the west.
Warm-frontal clouds are already spreading across our CWA this morning ahead of the cold front already on the Oregon coast. Almost all precipitation will come with the cold front.
Lows will be near climo in the low-mid 40s, especially in any cool, drainage areas in the E-NE. Highs will be near climo, in the low 70s, S of I-20, while about 5 deg. below climo, in the low-mid 60s, to the N. /DC/ The forecast period starts off tomorrow night with a mean longwave trough extending from the Hudson Bay through the Great Lakes and into the Deep South.
Slightly warmer than average temperatures are expected through the weekend. As it pushes of to the east tomorrow the high clouds will diminish in the morning with a light afternoon breeze from a NWly direction. A minor secondary impact will be a slight cooling of the high temperatures tomorrow afternoon, roughly 1-3 degrees.
Below-normal temperatures will persist through the week under a broad upper trough. However, clouds will overall be increasing into this evening in WSW flow aloft ahead of a digging western Great Lakes trough. The boundary layer should cool sufficiently late tonight/Tuesday morning for some snowflakes to mix in across our far north and in the ridges, with the higher peaks possibly getting a coating of snow.
The location seems to be in the vicinity of the snow that fell this morning and a little to the northeast from the snow towards where there would be a few less clouds and slightly cooler temperatures.
Westerly upper level flow, shifting to northwesterly flow, as tough slowly moves east and the westerly ridge builds. This flow is reflected down to the low levels, leaving us in a cool and dry air regime through the short term. High pressure to the west will slowly push in our direction, with increasing heights and subsidence helping to clear out clouds tonight and keep us mostly clear through tomorrow.
203 PM CDT Mon Nov 1 2021 An upper level low over eastern Canada continues to bring cyclonic flow to the Midwest, resulting in cool weather for this afternoon through Tuesday morning. High temperatures today were in the 40s and low temperatures tonight will be in the 20s, which is cooler than seasonable temps.
224 PM CDT Mon Nov 1 2021 Deep upper low today is centered over James Bay and will continue to slowly slide east into the Labrador Sea through the short term. However, Tuesday will see high pressure moving in at the surface, which will bring an end to the breezy winds and greatly limit any sprinkle/graupel potential from said cloud cover.
One area where convective coverage should increase is across western/northern Oklahoma from the increasing ascent downstream of the trough.
Any accumulations will be limited to the higher terrain of the northern mountains and are expected to be minimal.
Clouds and light precip will keep temperatures well below seasonal climo in the lower 40s for most of the area.
308 PM EDT Mon Nov 1 2021 High pressure will be in place at the surface for the next few days.
308 PM CDT Mon Nov 1 2021 (Issued 300 PM CDT Mon Nov 1 2021) Tonight through Tuesday night: High pressure will continue to push southeast and strengthen just to the west of the region tonight into Tuesday. This high will slowly slide eastward as well through Tuesday night. This will likely keep skies relatively clear through Tuesday night with the winds decreasing slowly as the high slides east overhead. In addition the 1000-500mb thicknesses will be in the low to mid 520s(dam).
A broad upper trough will remain in place across the eastern CONUS through Tuesday, with primarily zonal flow in place along the northern Gulf Coast. Temperatures will moderate a bit over the next 36 hours with highs and lows a couple degrees warmer than today. Expect lows in the lower 50s tonight with highs in the mid 70s by Tuesday afternoon.
138 PM EDT Mon Nov 1 2021 Dry and breezy conditions are forecast today following a cold front passage along with a few isolated showers.
A series of minor disturbances bookended by periods of ridging will keep conditions mostly dry and mild with periods of clouds and afternoon breezes. The overall weak nature of this wave should make this a sporadic occurrence, if it even reaches the lower elevation areas such as the 395 corridor at all. Otherwise, slightly cooler highs today and tomorrow are expected with little to no precip expected.
The remainder of the short term will be dry and even cooler than today.
316 PM EDT Mon Nov 1 2021 A strong cold front today will usher in an extended stretch of cooler than normal temperatures finally. After the passage of a cold front earlier in the day today, winds will continue to remain gusty through sunset. A broad ridge of high pressure will gradually build into the Northeast Tuesday and Tuesday night, but a weak upper level trough will cross northern New England late tomorrow and tomorrow evening. With this trough, clouds will increase in coverage late in the day across northern areas, southern New Hampshire, and the coastline. Temperatures will likely be a few degrees cooler tomorrow night as cooler air continues to filter in through late in the week.
153 PM CDT Mon Nov 1 2021 153 PM CDT Mon Nov 01 Regional radar and satellite imagery sure look like the first day of November with broad upper-level troughing across the northern United States and frontogenetical precipitation (much of which being virga but also pockets falling as a rain/snow mix) stretching from northern Kansas to central Illinois. Tonight, clearing skies and a resident dry airmass will allow for freezing temperatures areawide, with perhaps the exception being within a few miles of the Lake Michigan shoreline. After collaboration with neighboring offices as well as our local farming contacts, we will withhold the issuance of any more frost/freeze headlines this fall given the time of year as well as healthy lead time on getting the word out about the upcoming overnight freezing temperatures.
Deeper boundary layer moisture will continue to fill in from the south and east as surface and H85 winds respond to a slow developing upper level trough on the lee side of the Rockies over the next 24 hours. The boundary layer moisture advection coupled with cooler air aloft filtering in from the north will lead to cloudy, cool and wet ambient conditions beginning later tonight, persisting across our region through the day tomorrow. This wave will lead to enhanced upper level lift and a reinforcing cold front that will lead to additional shower generation across the forecast area.
All precipitation Tuesday likely to be in the eastern highlands as it dries west to east a high pressure builds in from the west.
Subsidence associated with the increasing surface pressure will allow for a gradual clearing of the low level clouds seen on visible satellite early this morning. KS Chattanooga Airport, TN 46 61 43 53 44 / 0 0 0 20 50 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 45 57 40 52 41 / 10 10 0 20 50 Oak Ridge, TN 44 56 40 52 41 / 10 10 0 20 40 Tri Cities Airport, TN 41 53 35 51 38 / 10 10 0 10 40.
Mid level heights will slowly decrease over the area through tonight as a trough deepens along the east coast of the U. Subsequently, a couple of troughs of low pressure and weak frontal boundary will shift southward over the southeast U.
Zonal flow aloft remains dominate over the area through the near term as a broad longwave trough digs southward over the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes regions to the Ohio River Valley. At the surface, high pressure continues building in from the northwest, maintaining a generally light northerly surface flow over the CWA. Highs on Tuesday will be near normal, in the low to mid 70s.
Persistent southeasterly onshore flow should favor additional cloud cover on Tuesday, which may help drop daytime highs a few degrees cooler than today. Regardless, the general theme of warmer than normal temperatures persists through the short term.
Temperatures overnight should drop into the upper 20s to near freezing for areas along and north of the Missouri river, and as such a freeze warning has been issued for these locations.
201 PM MDT Mon Nov 1 2021 Low clouds and light fog have been stubborn to improve in most locations today, and temperatures are a bit cooler as a result. A low-amplitude upper trough at 300 mb will pull across the area late tonight into Tuesday morning. The lower elevations over the west should only see minimal accumulation of up to around an inch above 6500 feet.
This front is expected to move back to the southwest across the rest of the Panhandles as a cold front this evening.
An active pattern has set up across the Great Basin as a series of weak weather disturbances pass through, followed by brief breaks of high pressure. The disturbances will bring periods of cloudy skies, light showers, and slightly cooler conditions to the silver state.
MAF will remain on the edge of the low stratus deck, but should see clearing to VFR over the next hour or two. Winds are shifting out of the south across the southern plains, allowing the cold front to briefly lift out of the area. However, a strengthening sfc anticyclone over the Central Plains will send the front back through the northern CWA late tonight. As the shallow cold air dams up against the higher terrain, temperatures south of I-10 will be about 30F warmer than areas to the north.
It will likely be a touch cooler in extreme northeastern Kansas tonight where clouds may begin to clear. The upper level trough currently in place over the northeastern CONUS is expected to remain in place through midweek.
The pressure gradient starts to tighten a bit tonight as a weak trough approaches from the west. The Monday morning the low was 16 which was closer to the NBM 10th percentile 10/31 forecast, so will lean that way for lows tonight in the eastern 1/4 of the forecast area.
Low temperatures will be in the low to mid-30s tonight, and remain near freezing each night this week. Clouds diminish from north to south tonight as the weak disturbance moves away and high pressure continues to build in, with areas north of I-72 expected to be mostly clear after midnight. Low temperatures north of I-72 are expected to drop below freezing tonight, the first such occurrence of the fall season for many locations. Between I-72 and I-70, where the cloud cover gradient is expected to reside overnight, there is more uncertainty as to whether or not low temperatures reach freezing tonight.
157 PM EDT Mon Nov 1 2021 Aviation - Cool week with occasional lake effect showers -- Cool week with occasional lake effect showers -- An omega block in the North American pattern the next few days will keep the Great Lakes region entrenched in the downstream trough with cooler than normal air.
By the end of the week thermal ridging across the western CONUS will slide east.
High clouds should limit the amount of fog formation along the fringes of the low cloud deck; however, knowing climatology, we have taken KHOB to LIFR before sunrise Tuesday morning and kept them there for awhile. The surface boundary will move southwestward as a backdoor cold front during the early morning hours Tuesday, but moisture above this shallow cold air mass will persist, keeping IFR conditions pretty much areawide through 03/00Z. Winds are shifting out of the south across the southern plains, allowing the cold front to briefly lift out of the area. However, a strengthening sfc anticyclone over the Central Plains will send the front back through the northern CWA late tonight. As the shallow cold air dams up against the higher terrain, temperatures south of I-10 will be about 30F warmer than areas to the north.
The higher terrain could receive a couple inches of snowfall.
/issued 308 PM EDT Mon Nov 1 2021/ High pressure will be in place at the surface for the next few days.
MVFR ceilings expanding in coverage is a high likelihood however the duration and possible expansion of the lower ceilings across far NW AR is much more uncertain.
Expect an upper level trough axis to push off to the east leaving the area under northwest flow aloft through much of the work week.
938 PM CDT Mon Nov 1 2021 High pressure is over the region, and cloudiness appears to be on the decreasing trend.
Low temperatures will be in the low to mid-30s tonight, and remain near freezing each night this week. The lowest dewpoints during peak heating today dipped down into the upper 20s across our Freeze Warning counties, which can guide you toward potential low temps tonight. That will support temps below freezing. Clouds diminish from north to south tonight as the weak disturbance moves away and high pressure continues to build in, with areas north of I-72 expected to be mostly clear after midnight. Low temperatures north of I-72 are expected to drop below freezing tonight, the first such occurrence of the fall season for many locations. Between I-72 and I-70, where the cloud cover gradient is expected to reside overnight, there is more uncertainty as to whether or not low temperatures reach freezing tonight.
Temperatures will remain fairly persistent as afternoon highs settle near seasonal normals in the low to mid 80s today. The Imperial Valley should be on the lookout for early morning fog again conditions remain favorable for moist Gulf of California air to surge northward over the cooler desert environment.
On Tuesday, the ridge will slowly move east of the Missouri River. Nonetheless, cool air aloft will keep highs in the low to mid 40s. All models agree that the ridge axis will quickly move east of the area Tuesday evening. So while lows will be in the mid to upper 20s along and west of I-29, temperature by sunrise are likely to be near freezing. Farther east, where mostly clear skies and light winds are expected, lows will fall into the lower 20s.
Overall cloud trends will be challenging for aviation, but bases are in the 4-6k range so in the lower end VFR, but coverage will vary from sct to bkn thru the night. Temps for tonight looks reasonable as coldest temps will be west of our area where high pressure will be across SW ND.
Drier and warmer weather conditions are forecast for Tuesday and Tuesday night.
Winds are light through late tonight, with increasing NLY flow tomorrow as high pressure builds into the plains and midwest. CD Chattanooga Airport, TN 46 60 43 53 44 / 10 0 0 20 70 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 44 56 40 52 42 / 10 10 10 30 60 Oak Ridge, TN 44 55 40 52 41 / 10 10 10 20 60 Tri Cities Airport, TN 42 52 34 51 39 / 10 20 10 20 50.
902 PM CDT Mon Nov 1 2021 Surface analysis this evening shows high pressure continues to build in behind a cold front that is currently pushing into the northern Gulf of Mexico. High pressure will slide eastward and into the Ohio Valley on Tuesday, with CAA continuing through the day. Zonal flow will persist aloft through Tuesday night, before a trough begins to dig into the Southern Plains. This trough will strengthen as it progresses eastward, with moisture will begin filtering into the area late Tuesday night. Expect increasing clouds overnight, with lows in the lower 40s and perhaps upper 30s in a few spots.
631 PM CDT Mon Nov 1 2021 An upper level low over eastern Canada continues to bring cyclonic flow to the Midwest, resulting in cool weather for this afternoon through Tuesday morning. High temperatures today were in the 40s and low temperatures tonight will be in the 20s, which is cooler than seasonable temps.
Winds to the left of this trough remain mainly northerly, while winds to the right are from the east. In addition to the cooler temps, dew points have been appreciably comfortable in the mid 60s. Meanwhile, light to gentle northwest to north breezes will freshen due to a combination of a weak trough sliding west overnight and a minor nocturnal surge coming in off the mainland. Winds may even clock around to the northeast and east off the upper Keys where the trough will make its closest approach.
807 PM EDT Mon Nov 1 2021 High pressure will reside over the area Tuesday.
Below-normal temperatures will persist through the week under a broad upper trough. The boundary layer should cool sufficiently late tonight/Tuesday morning for some snowflakes to mix in across our far north and in the ridges, with the higher peaks possibly getting a coating of snow.
It should be cooler tomorrow with highs in the low 50s to low 60s.
Elsewhere dry weather and cooler than normal temperatures are expected. Lows will be near climo in the low-mid 40s, especially in any cool, drainage areas in the E-NE. Highs will be near climo, in the low 70s, S of I-20, while about 5 deg. below climo, in the low-mid 60s, to the N. /DC/ The forecast period starts off tomorrow night with a mean longwave trough extending from the Hudson Bay through the Great Lakes and into the Deep South.
1051 PM EDT Mon Nov 1 2021 High pressure will reside over the area Tuesday.
Deep upper low today is centered over James Bay and will continue to slowly slide east into the Labrador Sea through the short term. However, Tuesday will see high pressure moving in at the surface, which will bring an end to the breezy winds and greatly limit any sprinkle/graupel potential from said cloud cover.
High pressure will continue to build towards Florida, keeping winds light tonight and less than 10 MPH generally from the northeast to east tomorrow. Lows will be in the low to mid- 60s, and highs in the low-80s.
This is associated with a trough which will pass just to our north and a cold front that is working through the area. A few showers will linger tho mainly over the higher elevations north of I-80 and over Shasta County. The highest rain totals will be over Shasta County with 0. This trough is also bringing increased southerly winds and we are seeing gusts to 15 to 25 mph locally higher near the Sierra crest.
446 PM MDT Mon Nov 1 2021 Northerly flow aloft will continue over the region tonight as an upper trough continues to shift off to the southeast and a narrow upper ridge builds to the west.
821 PM EDT Mon Nov 1 2021 Dry stable conditions courtesy of high pressure will maintain very pleasant dry weather across all of west central Florida through mid week with slowly moderating temperatures.
453 PM MDT Mon Nov 1 2021 Low clouds and light fog have been stubborn to improve in most locations today, and temperatures are a bit cooler as a result. A low-amplitude upper trough at 300 mb will pull across the area late tonight into Tuesday morning. The lower elevations over the west should only see minimal accumulation of up to around an inch above 6500 feet.
VFR conditions forecast to prevail with light northerly winds and some light rain showers near TRI early in the period as a cold front moves through the area. JB Chattanooga Airport, TN 60 42 53 44 50 / 0 0 20 70 70 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 56 38 52 42 48 / 0 0 30 60 70 Oak Ridge, TN 54 38 52 41 48 / 10 0 20 60 60 Tri Cities Airport, TN 51 32 51 39 46 / 20 0 20 50 60.
Any accumulations will be limited to the higher terrain of the northern mountains and are expected to be minimal. Accumulations of 5- 10 inches, with locally higher amounts possible at the highest elevations, are possible through Tuesday night.
A warmer, dry, and quiet period ahead. An upper level trough continues to rotate short waves across the Northland atop of modest low level instability - enhanced greatly by warm lake temperatures. This trough is slowly making its way eastward resulting in fewer of these waves with weaker forcing, but overall not a significant change in the weather.
Temperatures will be cooler with highs generally in the 40s. With cold airmass in place expect temperatures to drop below freezing tonight. Highly amplified mid and upper level flow pattern with mean trof settling south into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley this week.
With the upper trough continuing to reside over the region through Tuesday afternoon, cloud and light precip trends are the focus of this forecast. Because of the cool bias of the NationalBlend, stayed on the warmer side of guidance. The upper trough axis will swing across the region, leading to very similar conditions compared to today.
(06Z TAFS) Rich low level moisture and an advancing cold front will bring low clouds and possibly some DZ and FG. Low clouds have developed behind the front as rich, low-level moisture overrides the cooler airmass.
203 AM CDT Tue Nov 2 2021 Cooler than normal and dry conditions continue through the end of this week with overnight lows near or below freezing. Canadian high pressure sinks southward today, leading to quiet conditions. Daytime highs will be about 10 degrees cooler than normal for early November with values expected to be generally in the middle 40s to low 50s. Quiet and cool conditions are expected through the remainder of this week as high pressure remains in control.
A weak, diffuse cold front pressing southward across the area today will bring no real noticeable airmass change with continued mostly clear and dry conditions into tonight. On Tuesday, expect much of the same with an an additional dry cold front bringing some increase in mid and high-level cloud cover. By Wednesday morning, a digging upper-level trough begins to edge across the southwestern US and into the southern Plains. At the surface, a high pressure system sets up over the northeast, with forecasted resultant north/northeasterly flow characteristic of a CAD event.
1040 PM CDT Mon Nov 1 2021 An upper level low over eastern Canada continues to bring cyclonic flow to the Midwest, resulting in cool weather for this afternoon through Tuesday morning. High temperatures today were in the 40s and low temperatures tonight will be in the 20s, which is cooler than seasonable temps. A longwave trough at 500mb over eastern Canada extends southwestward into the local area through Wednesday.
Today and Tonight: Broad upper-level troughing will be in place across much of the eastern CONUS through this time period.
303 AM EDT Tue Nov 2 2021 A weak trough of low pressure will cross north of the region today with a second trough crossing the region on Wednesday.
Will have to watch this area, as the high clouds could be a tad thinner up that way. Dry chilly weather will continue Wednesday as high pressure continues to press southeast across the CWFA.
This round should have the least amount of coverage and QPF, thus the lowest PoPs of the three events. Cooler air will continue to filter into the state during this time and highs are only expected to reach the mid 40s to near 60 degrees. Temperatures will be much colder across the state by this time, readings may even be in the lower/mid 30s above 1800 feet elevation in the Ozark/Boston Mtns, which could result in some snowflakes flying near sunrise Wednesday. Warm ground conditions combined with above freezing temperatures should preclude any mention of snow accumulation, but its a sure sign of the changing of seasons! Elsewhere across the state, a chilly rain will be felt with temperatures in the upper 30s to lower 40s.