Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL WITH MONSOONAL MOISTURE SPILLING OVERTOP IT CAUSING MORE THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM IN EASTERN NEW MEXICO.
SUBSIDENCE FROM A MID AND UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER WEST TEXAS SHOULD PUT AN END TO THE SHOWERS DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR SO AS WE LOSE SURFACE HEATING. /ISSUED 327 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015/ AFTERNOON SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW AND DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE. MOST OF THE LIFT AND CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS WHICH IS KEEPING THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS MAINLY TO OUR SOUTHEAST. THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST. RIDGING WILL EXTEND ACROSS TEXAS THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF THE COUNTRY WITH A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN U.
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL THROUGH LATE WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS SOUTHWARD INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. ANOTHER MILD EVENING ANTICIPATED TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY RUNNING IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S ALONG THE COAST TO MID 70S INLAND. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE IN STORE WEDNESDAY AS THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE SWINGS ACROSS THE REGION. THE COOLING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH DIGS SOUTH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA INTRODUCING A COOLER AIRMASS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE.
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ANALYSIS GENERALLY SHOWS AN INVERTED TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY. SHOWERS HAVE BEEN TRYING TO NUDGE INTO THE WESTERN FRIDGES OF THE FORECAST AREA ALONG THE ATCHAFALAYA BASIN TODAY.
SHOWERS AND CLOUDS ARE OUT AHEAD OF THE LOW IN EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. AS THE LOW DRIFTS OFF TO THE WEST.
WITH A DEVELOPING UPPER LOW IN WESTERN CANADA. AND INCREASING RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN US. WEAK UPPER LOWS WERE NOTED OVER IN AND OVER EASTERN TX/EASTERN OK. WESTERN US TROUGH AND EASTERN US RIDGE PATTERN WILL PERSIST ESSENTIALLY THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN WARM WITH 80S TO 90S ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. ONE OR TWO CELLS MAY BE ABLE TO MAKE IT OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND INTO THE PALMER DIVIDE AND RATON MESA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. UPPER TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST DEEPENS SAT THEN MOVES INTO THE NRN ROCKIES SUN. MAX TEMPS BOTH DAYS PERHAPS A DEGF OR TWO COOLER THAN FRI MANY LOCATIONS AS HEIGHTS BEGIN TO FALL SLIGHT WITH FLATTENING OF THE UPPER RIDGE. STILL APPEARS COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH COLORADO LATE SUN/EARLY MON AS UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO MARCH EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
757 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATER WEDNESDAY.
/ISSUED 332 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015/ CURRENT RADAR LOOP SHOWS SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH GA AND FLORIDA AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SPINS JUST OFF THE GULF COAST OF FL. MAIN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS CENTERED JUST OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST OF FL AND IS STILL HELPING TO KEEP PRECIP TO A MINIMUM AT LEAST IN THE SHORT TERM.
1054 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015 SULTRY START TO SEPTEMBER WITH BROAD UPPER RIDGE ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN U. FOCUS IN SHORT TERM WILL BE WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT.
906 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015 A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE SOUTHEAST THIS WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH. AND A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER OR CLOSE TO COASTAL WATERS. EXTENSIVE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH IN ASSOCIATION WITH A DEEP LAYERED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE FL PANHANDLE. THE LOW WILL MAKE VERY LITTLE NORTHWARD PROGRESS OVERNIGHT. LOW TEMPS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
615 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015 THE PATTERN ALOFT FEATURED SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH RIDGING TO THE SOUTH WHILE AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTE WAS JUST OFF SHORE NEAR BRITISH COLUMBIA. WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER WRN TX INTO THE SRN PLAINS. WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SWRN COAST OF CANADA AND ACCOMPANYING TROUGH EXTENDING DOWN THE WEST COAST OF THE US. AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDS THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS.
DESPITE DEEP MOISTURE LEVELS BEING A LITTLE LESS THAN OPTIMAL ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-55 CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON OUR SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE SITUATION (IN TERMS OF ATMOSPHERIC LIFT) JUST TO THE LEE OF A WEAK UPPER TROUGH HAS HELPED TO MANIFEST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS. BUT THERE ARE NO SIGNS IN THE FORECAST OF ANY EARLY SEASON COLD FRONTS AS THE WESTERLIES WILL REMAIN WELL-DISPLACED TO THE NORTH. THE ARKLAMISS REGION WILL GENERALLY REMAIN SANDWICHED BETWEEN TWO SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXES AS A WEAK NORTH-SOUTH TROUGH AXIS OSCILLATES OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THE MAIN FOCUS FOR DIURNAL CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION WILL BE ALONG/W OF THE I-55 CORRIDOR IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE CURRENT TROUGH POSITION. EXPECT THE TROUGH AXIS AND STORM POTENTIAL TO BE SLIGHTLY FARTHER EAST FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
CONVECTION IN PROGRESS EAST OF AN UPPER LOW. 09 /ISSUED 323 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015/ LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. WINDS WERE BEGINNING TO VEER TO THE NORTHEAST AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE FL PENINSULA. HOWEVER THE STRONG UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE LOCAL AREA AND NOT EXPECTING ANY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AND THE POTENTIAL FOR CLOUD COVER MAY KEEP TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN WHAT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/GFS AND NAM STREAMLINES DEPICT THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS AT THE COAST WITH SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER MID-LEVEL AIR WEST OF THE AXIS. EXPECT THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS TO MOVE OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY YET REMAIN CLOSE TO THE COAST (BASED ON THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN. THE PROXIMITY OF THE TROUGH AXIS/MSTR SUGGEST ISOLD/SCT CONVECTION OVER THE ERN CWA/MSA DRG THE PERIOD.
A trough of low pressure is centered near British Columbia.
AREA REMAINS IN A SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF APPROACHING TROUGH.
TOMORROW SHOULD BE PRETTY SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO WHAT WE HAVE SEEN TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS STATIONARY ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY REGION.
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTHWEST TEXAS WITH A RIDGE AXIS ACROSS OUR AREA IS NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE APPRECIABLY. THE PRIMARY DRIVER OF THE WEATHER FOR THE SOUTH PLAINS WILL BE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT WILL STRETCH FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST OVER THE REGION. THIS RIDGE WILL KEEP SEASONABLY WARM/HOT TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE. THE UPPER RIDGE MAY EDGE JUST FAR ENOUGH EASTWARD LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS A SUBSTANTIAL STORM SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE NORTHWESTERN STATES.
1200 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015 AVIATION HAZY HOT AND HUMID WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THIS WEEK AS A PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE REMAINS ENTRENCHED OVER THE GREAT LAKES.
HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER ACROSS NORTHWEST AS CLOUDS MOVE INTO THAT PART OF THE STATE FROM CONVECTION OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES. /ISSUED 339 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015/ AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS OUR AREA SHOULD MAINTAIN A QUIET WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH SEASONABLY NORMAL TEMPERATURES PERSISTING AND MILD NIGHTS.
THE LONG WAVE PATTERN IS SUCH THAT WE'LL HAVE A STRONG UPPER RIDGE IN THE SOUTHEAST U. AND ANOTHER ONE NEAR 150W AND A TROUGH OVER THE PAC NW. CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGE SHOWS AN UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR THE WEST COAST OF B. THIS WILL MOVE SOUTH OVER THE NEXT 24-30 HOURS AND AT THE SAME TIME THE UPPER TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY.
Low pressure aloft is seen over central Indiana, and it's related to convection we see narrowly clipping our northeastern counties and just beyond. Models depict this low circulating/drifting slowly southeastward with time. Upper Heights gradually rise as well with time, with strong synoptic scale ridging building in from the west.
957 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY.
/ISSUED 339 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015/ AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS OUR AREA SHOULD MAINTAIN A QUIET WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH SEASONABLY NORMAL TEMPERATURES PERSISTING AND MILD NIGHTS.
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL THROUGH LATE WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS SOUTHWARD INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. EXPECTING THE LOW CLOUDS TO SPREAD BACK INLAND LATE IN THE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING AND PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE WILL THEN BECOME ABSORBED BY THE LONG-WAVE TROUGH DROPPING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
837 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SIT OVER THE REGION BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF-SHEAR AXIS NOTED YESTERDAY WEST OF THE FCST. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC AND CONTINUES TO RIDGE SOUTHWEST INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES THROUGH LATE WEEK. AT THE SAME TIME A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA OR TROF OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF (REMNANTS OF ERIKA) WILL LINGER. WHILE THE POSITION OF THE UPPER TROF WILL BE CONDUCIVE FOR INCREASED MIDLEVEL MOISTURE. THE SFC RIDGING POKING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST WILL KEEP DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S OVER MOST OF THE FCST AREA. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE LOW 70S INLAND AND MID 70S COASTAL.
624 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015 SULTRY START TO SEPTEMBER WITH BROAD UPPER RIDGE ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN U. FOCUS IN SHORT TERM WILL BE WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT.
ANOTHER WARM NIGHT IN STORE ACROSS THE REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL.
751 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SIT OVER THE REGION BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
715 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY.
1107 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATER WEDNESDAY.
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMAINS OF ERIKA CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PUSH INTO THE BIG BEND REGION. MID LEVEL VORTICITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL DRIFT INTO GA THROUGH EARLY TOMORROW WITH A STRONG H5 RIDGE OF AROUND 592 DAM QUICKLY SETTLING OVER THE STATE. DEEP LAYER AND BROAD RIDGING OVER THE REGION SUPPORTS THE CURRENT FORECAST AND NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE THIS EVENING. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT OUT OF THE REGION TONIGHT. A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL ESTABLISH OVER THE EASTERN GULF AND REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
WEAK TROUGH WILL DRIVE TO THE SOUTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY.
MAINLY SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM EAST CENTRAL TO THE LOWER JAMES VALLEY. BUT WARMER OVERALL PROFILE AND LIKELY SLOW MOVEMENT OF FEATURES TIED TO BOUNDARY AND LIFT FROM APPROACHING WAVE SUGGEST THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL. AND THE HIGHLY INVERSION DOMINANT LESS HOT AND MORE HUMID AREAS FROM THE JAMES VALLEY EASTWARD.
/ISSUED 300 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015/ With high pressure remaining in control across the southern plains, the weather will remain very consistent and uneventful through the upcoming holiday weekend. A weak cold front will approach the northern periphery of the forecast area by next Tuesday.
740 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015 AVIATION HAZY HOT AND HUMID WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THIS WEEK AS A PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE REMAINS ENTRENCHED OVER THE GREAT LAKES.
741 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY.
624 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015 FOR 00Z TAFS /ISSUED 323 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015/ LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. WINDS WERE BEGINNING TO VEER TO THE NORTHEAST AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE FL PENINSULA. HOWEVER THE STRONG UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE LOCAL AREA AND NOT EXPECTING ANY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AND THE POTENTIAL FOR CLOUD COVER MAY KEEP TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN WHAT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS.
OPTED TO RAISE POPS INTO THE LOW/MID RANGE CHC CATEGORY TOWARD THE WI BORDER. IT WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER WED.
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER LOW NEAR INDIANAPOLIS HAS MOVED ONLY SLIGHTLY NORTHEAST. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE PLAINS TOMORROW AND CONTINUE THE HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. AM EXPECTING HIGHS TO BE AROUND 90S INTO THE LOWER 90S THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
715 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015 HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL THIS WEEK.
WILL FOCUS MOST OF THE ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT TO THE RELATIVELY WARMER COASTAL WATERS AND COASTAL COUNTIES.
A PACIFIC TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT BASIN FOR THE WEEKEND. AND WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A MUCH COOLER. THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW THIS EVENING BETWEEN THE RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES AND THE TROUGH OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST.
A REGIONAL SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS EVENING REVEALS AN AMORPHOUS HIGH PRESSURE CELL CENTERED JUST EAST AND NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS. WITH AN ILL-DEFINED RIDGE EXTENDING TO THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA. GRADIENT FLOW SOUTH OF THE RIDGE IS FAIRLY WEAK. WITH SOME OF THAT DRY AIR EXTENDING PRETTY FAR DOWN INTO THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE -- DEWPOINT DEPRESSION AT 925MB WAS 7C. A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CELL OVER THE SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC WILL MOVE WESTWARD.
SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW JUST INTO THE WESTERLIES WILL TOWARD THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND OPEN UP. CUT-OFF ENERGY WILL LINGER FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE WESTERN GULF. PSEUDO-BLOCKING PATTERN. WITH TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES AND IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
1148 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015 An upper level ridge will continue to be in control of our weather here in the MO Ozarks/SE Kansas vicinity through the short term. An upper level low has developed along the TX/LA coastlines this morning. Upper level ridging will continue across the Midwestern states and great plains through the week. This ridge will keep temperatures up and will suppress overall precipitation chances. The cold frontal boundary now looks to become stalled upon losing UL support across the Great Lakes/Northern Plains.
1130 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015 NORTH TEXAS CONTINUES TO LIE BETWEEN A RIDGE OVER WEST TEXAS AND A TROUGH OVER EAST TEXAS AND THE NORTHWEST GULF. /ISSUED 327 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015/ AFTERNOON SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW AND DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE. MOST OF THE LIFT AND CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS WHICH IS KEEPING THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS MAINLY TO OUR SOUTHEAST. THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST. RIDGING WILL EXTEND ACROSS TEXAS THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF THE COUNTRY WITH A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN U.
217 PM CDT TUE JUL 14 2015 HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE 7 DAY PERIOD.
TEMPS ARE IN THE LOW 80S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S.
1131 AM MDT TUE JUL 14 2015 ACTIVE MOISTURE PLUME CONTINUES TO SPREAD UP ALONG THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER HIGH ACROSS CO. PARTICULARLY OUT EAST WHERE HIGHS SHOULD STAY DOWN IN THE LOWER-MID 90S INSTEAD OF THE 100 DEGREE READINGS OF THE PAST COUPLE DAYS. MTN AREAS SHOULD SEE READINGS SIMILAR TO A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER.
1221 PM CDT TUE JUL 14 2015 UPPER AIR PATTERN REVEALS RIDGING EXTENDING ACROSS THE WESTERN PLAINS CURRENTLY. THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHOULD EXTEND FROM CENTRAL ND TO EASTERN NEB. STILL NOT OVERLY IMPRESSED WITH RAINFALL CHANCES AS THE LOW LEVEL JET IS WEAK ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
WITH THAT IN MIND I'M GOING TO HOLD OFF ON EXTENDING THE CURRENT ADVISORY WITH THE LOW CONFIDENCE OF HOW MUCH CONVECTION WILL BE OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA.
250 PM CDT TUE JUL 14 2015 LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATING A WEAK TROF/WIND SHIFT LINE SHIFTING SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS WITH THE MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF CUMULUS JUST TO OUR EAST ALONG THE BOUNDARY. WILL STILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCES ACROSS THE EAST AS THE COMBINATION OF THE UPPER TROF/COLDER TEMPS ALOFT AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE LAKE BREEZE FRONT AS IT SLIDES SOUTH INTO EARLY THIS EVENING MAY TRIGGER SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY. LOWER DEW POINTS WILL THEN ADVECT SOUTH INTO OUR AREA OVERNIGHT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. A RATHER QUIET WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS CENTRAL THRU SOUTHEAST IL ON WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS SLOWLY AWAY FROM OUR AREA. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS OFF TO OUR EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
258 PM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015 SKIES ARE QUICKLY CLEARING AS SFC RIDGING MOVES IN BEHIND A COLD FRONT. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW-MID 70S. WITH COOLER TEMPS CLOSER TO LAKE SUPERIOR AS LAKE BREEZES MOVE INLAND. THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION WILL STILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE (FROM A HIGH CENTERED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF JAMES BAY).
SURFACE COLD FRONT TONIGHT. WARMER BY THE END OF THE WEEK. STORMS FIRING AS EXPECTED AHEAD OF FRONT AND MID LEVEL TROF AXIS. HOPING ENOUGH MID LEVEL DYNAMICS AND WITH MID LEVEL TROF PASSING AROUND 00Z. THE LOWERING FLASH FLOOD THREAT MAY BE AT THE PRICE OF WIND/HAIL. COLD FRONT WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL.
HOT AND CLOUD-FREE CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE AT THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS.
231 PM CDT TUE JUL 14 2015 The upper ridge responsible for recent hot temperatures will continue to dominate sensible weather this week, with above normal temperatures expected to continue through the upcoming weekend. Not much change expected Wednesday, as the ridge axis remains east of the area and 850mb temps remain in the 28C-30C range, translating to afternoon highs in the upper 90s to lower 100s. The GFS shifts the ridge axis a bit further east than other guidance, which would allow for some moisture associated with Hurricane Dolores in the Eastern Pacific to route northward over western portions of the forecast area Wednesday afternoon.
EXCEPTIONS MAY BE THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS WEST OF THE FRONT RANGE AND THE LOWER ELEVATIONS NORTH OF DENVER WHICH MAY SUFFER FROM THE DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR AND DISTANCE FROM THE MORE ACTIVE AREAS. FOR NOW WILL KEEP HIGHEST POPS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH SCT COVERAGE OVER NERN CO. MODELS ARE CONTINUING TO FORECAST A TYPICAL MID-SUMMER UPPER AIR PATTERN THAT FEATURES AN UPPER HIGH CENTERED OVER TEXAS WITH COLORADO UNDER MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. COOLER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE REGION FOR WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 70S TO LOW 80S.
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS OVERNIGHT WITH MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPING INTO EASTERN COLORADO THIS EVENING. WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES AND QPF IN THAT AREA TONIGHT. THIS OLD FRONTAL ZONE WILL INTERACT WITH MORE SUBSYNOPTIC SCALE PERTURBATIONS MOVING NORTHEAST FROM THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NEW MEXICO AROUND THE PERSISTENT SUBTROPICAL HIGH CENTERED OVER CENTRAL/EAST TEXAS.
IF I RECALL CORRECTLY THE HIGHEST DEWPOINT EVER MEASURED IN THE WORLD IS 93 DEGREES IN THE PERSIAN GULF.
THOUGH THEY COULD BE BUMPED UP SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE/COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT MAY RESIDE.
435 PM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH TONIGHT AND CROSS THE AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
222 PM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015 AN UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE EAST COAST.
1124 AM MDT TUE JUL 14 2015 SUBTROPICAL RIDGE HAS NOT MOVED A WHOLE LOT OVER THE LAST 24 HRS AND IS LOCATED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. TEMPS TODAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY BUT STILL WARM.
313 PM CDT TUE JUL 14 2015 A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND THIS AFTERNOON USHERING IN LOWER DEWPOINTS AND COOLER AIR FOR MOST AREAS. MLCAPE HAS RISEN TO 500-750J/KG IN THE BRAINERD LAKES REGION AND DIMINISHES TO THE EAST IN THE COOLER/DRIER AIR. IT WILL BE QUITE A BIT COOLER TONIGHT.
THE FLORIDA KEYS ARE IN BETWEEN TWO MEAN LAYER ANTICYCLONES. THIS AFTERNOON'S 18Z KKEY RAOB OBSERVATION INDICATED DRIER AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS (DPD APPROACHING 8 DEGREES C) AND A LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY STEERING FLOW. SHOWER ACTIVITY REMAINS CONFINED TO THE LEE OF THE LOWER KEYS. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOWER 90S. THE SPLINTERED WESTERN FLANK OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL REMAIN PARKED NEAR THE KEYS.
LOOK FOR THE SURFACE FRONT CURRENTLY LOCATED TO OUR NORTH TO MOVE SOUTHWARD THROUGH MIDDLE TENNESSEE OVERNIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING, USHERING IN DRIER (BUT NOT MUCH COOLER) WEATHER OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
WITH VERY OPPRESSIVE AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES DUE TO THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AT THE SURFACE. WE'RE ACTUALLY WARMER IN THE LOWEST 700MB THAN YESTERDAY WHICH WILL KEEP ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AT BAY UNTIL LATER THIS AFTERNOON. 19 AN UPPER HIGH CENTERED TO THE WEST OF ALABAMA WILL PRODUCE A NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN.
204 PM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015 AVIATION LOW PRESSURE WILL PULL AWAY FROM THE REGION TODAY.
1218 PM CDT TUE JUL 14 2015 FCST AREA TO REMAIN UNDER THE WRN SIDE OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE ARKLATEX. BUT WINDS WILL BE LIGHT IN THE VICINITY OF THE TROUGH. AN UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER EAST TX WILL EXTEND OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITH WARM TEMPS AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT SUPPRESSING CONVECTION. WHERE DEEP- LAYER MOISTURE IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER AND INFLUENCE OF UPPER RIDGE LESS. EARLY MORNING RADAR AND SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH. PERHAPS A DEGREE WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. THE DOG DAYS OF SUMMER WILL CONTINUE AS UPPER RIDGING HOLDS THE GREATEST INFLUENCE OVER WEST TEXAS OVER THE COMING WEEK. THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS PROGGED TO EDGE EASTWARD THROUGH MID/LATE WEEK AS BROAD TROUGHING ENVELOPS THE WESTERN STATES.
AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES SE FROM SOUTHERN LAKE HURON. AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD WI/WESTERN UPPER MI/LK SUPERIOR.
646 PM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015 AVIATION THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL QUIET DOWN FOR MID WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
120 PM MDT TUE JUL 14 2015 LOOKS ACTIVE TONIGHT AS 500 MB SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THOUGH THE LOW TO MID LEVEL SHEAR LOOKS MARGINAL.
CAT POPS INTO EARLY EVENING AS MAIN UPPER TROUGH EXITS EAST. DIMINISHING SHOWER CHANCES THROUGH THE NIGHT AS UPPER TROUGH AND MUCH DRIER AIR WORKS SOUTHEAST.
639 PM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015 A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER INLAND WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
357 PM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015 LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN LAKE ERIE WILL CONTINUE EAST OVERNIGHT DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA.
A RELATIVELY DRY PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD AS AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PARKS ITSELF OVER THE DEEP SOUTH. THE QUAD STATE REGION WILL BE ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE.
THEN THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS EAST IT IS BACK TO ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AND HOT CONDITIONS.
250 PM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND CROSS MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY.
SHOULD BE A BETTER DAY RETURNING ON WEDNESDAY WITH SOME DRIER AIR BUILDING IN BEHIND THE OFFENDING SHORT WAVE TROUGH.
225 PM CDT TUE JUL 14 2015 GFS/ECMWF/NAM ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH LIFTING A WARM FRONT NORTH/NORTHEAST OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WED NIGHT/THU. DECENT PUSH OF OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO/NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT. DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH CONVECTION/CLOUD DEBRIS IS PRESENT THU MORNING AND HOW FAR NORTH THE WARM FRONT CAN MOVE DURING THE DAY. WHICH WOULD BE MORE AROUND THE WARM FRONT AND SOUTH. WITH THE POSITIONING OF THE WARM FRONT HAVING A LOT OF SAY IN WHERE THE PCPN WILL DEVELOP AND IF THERE WOULD BE A STRONG/SEVERE RISK.
257 PM CDT TUE JUL 14 2015 HEAT CONTINUES UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.
THE EAST COAST UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BRIEFLY AMPLIFIES ON WEDNESDAY AS SEVERAL SHORT WAVES DIG SOUTHEAST INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH.