Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
604 AM CST Thu Jan 28 2021 High pressure dominates today with light winds from the east/northeast. The high will allow for CAA near the surface and afternoon temperatures today will struggle to get out of the 60s.
Currently temperatures are in the lower 30s primarily with a few locations such as Fort Payne at 35 degrees. Northerly winds around 10 mph with some gusts around 15 mph make it feel like temperatures are only in the lower to mid 20s. Highs will likely top off in the upper 30s (NE AL/southern middle TN) and in the lower 40s elsewhere. High pressure situated over the region along with generally clear skies, and light winds, will produce chilly conditions Thursday night. Low temperatures by daybreak Friday will range in the lower 20s. Slightly warmer conditions under sunny skies are forecast Fri, with highs near 50.
Mid clouds in a wave of warm air advection as the ridge axis shifts off to the east are draped across the southwestern portions of the forecast area. The clouds and warm air advection will push temperatures warmer today than yesterday, and have put in highs in the teens for today, and tonight will also be warmer, only dipping to between zero and 10 above. We have been monitoring an upper level trough that this morning is still out over the Pacific, but moves on shore over the next 24 hours and moves across the Rockies around the Four Corners region Friday before continuing east over the weekend.
Lows in the mid to upper 30s inland, in the low to mid 40s near the coast and around 50 at the beaches can be expected tonight. Slightly warmer high temperatures are anticipated on Friday with the southeast winds in place, but the increasing clouds should help to max out afternoon temperatures in/around the mid 60s.
An upper low will slide south along the coast today with scattered showers across the area.
The upper trough causing Tuesdays rain/snow will move to the Appalachians around sunrise, and continue eastward.
407 AM EST Thu Jan 28 2021 Water vapor imagery highlights a broad mean-layer ridge complex over the Caribbean, south of a belt of westerlies racing to the east across northern Florida and the Southeast United States. Upper level ridging is building into the Canadian Prairies, just upstream of a polar airmass spilling to the south near the western-most Great Lakes. A cold front stretches to the southwest from Central Florida to the Bay of Campeche, with strong northerly breezes and a much cooler and drier airmass behind the boundary. The cold front will blast through the Florida Keys this morning. Another cool night Friday night with lows in the lower 60s across the island chain.
421 AM EST Thu Jan 28 2021 A large high pressure area will continue to bring a cold north flow accompanied by light lake effect snow and flurries across Lower Michigan into northern Indiana today; otherwise, partly to mostly cloudy skies will prevail.
/Issued 248 AM EST Thu Jan 28 2021/ Low pressure has moved off the coast of the Carolinas this morning. High pressure will build in from the west today with ridging overhead through Friday.
In our area this is likely to be mixed - rain, snow and freezing rain or freezing drizzle.
517 AM CST Thu Jan 28 2021 Stratus is developing under the ridge as well as advecting into the east on southeasterly flow this morning. Expect clouds to remain through the day across the east which could keep temps a bit cooler than currently forecast even with the waa. Can't completely rule out a flurry or two under the low stratus in the east today, either.
High pressure will remain over the area into Friday but we'll see an increase in cloud cover due to increasing moisture and 700mb warm air advection.
This Pacific system will be warmer compared to the last one with snow levels remaining above 5,500 feet.
414 AM CST Thu Jan 28 2021 Stratus is developing under the ridge as well as advecting into the east on southeasterly flow this morning. Expect clouds to remain through the day across the east which could keep temps a bit cooler than currently forecast even with the waa. Can't completely rule out a flurry or two under the low stratus in the east today, either.
Prevailing wind will be out of the south both days as the leeside trough slowly deepens ahead of the next storm system.
310 AM CST Thu Jan 28 2021 Upper ridging will prevail over the region today, though an embedded subtropical disturbance will supply plenty of high-level cloudiness. Southerly winds will become modestly breezy this afternoon as we become situated between a sprawling ridge over the Mississippi River Valley and weak troughing in the lee of the Rockies. Temperatures will peak in the lower to middle 50s this afternoon under filtered sunshine.
/issued 241 AM CST Thu Jan 28 2021/ High clouds will continue over the region on the heels of a broad trough pressing east of the Mississippi and weak ridging building over the Rockies and adjacent plains. One more cool afternoon in store as local thickness pattern yields another 3-5F below normal day for much of the forecast area before we firmly rebound back above normal (60s with some 70s over the river valleys) on Friday as the ridge axis pumps overhead.
SHORT TERM (Now through Friday): Mid level ridging builds across the central CONUS as a strong storm system dives south along the California coast and another system drops into New England. Southeasterly flow increases through the day on Friday as high pressure heads east and low pressure works through the Rockies. A few more peeks of sunshine and increased southerly flow could help nudge highs back into the low to mid 70s to end the work week.
The swath of precipitation associated with the Pacific frontal system that is swinging slowly into the west coast has made little progress southward overnight, as the trough offshore continues to dig southward. Where this continuous stream of precipitation has been sitting, impressive amounts have accumulated, a couple of inches of rain in lower elevations, and a few to several feet of snow in the higher mountain elevations. The area of precip is progged to finally begin a more determined southward push today as the mid level trough pivots in toward the coast.
557 AM EST Thu Jan 28 2021 A large high pressure area will continue to bring a cold north flow accompanied by light lake effect snow and flurries across Lower Michigan into northern Indiana today; otherwise, partly to mostly cloudy skies will prevail.
413 AM MST Thu Jan 28 2021 The moist southwest flow will continue in the short term as the trough approaches. Then, we expect a relative break in the action tonight as the incoming trough turns mid-level flow more southerly; we will keep the Winter Weather Advisory in effect through 03Z as scheduled. Otherwise, much warmer temperatures are expected east of the Divide and across southern areas as warmer air advects into the area and helps mix out the boundary layer. This will also keep stronger winds across the Wind Corridor, and thus will continue the High Wind Warning across Natrona County today.
Upper ridging and a trend towards southwesterly flow expected today. Still expect warmer temps today given the anticipated setup but think lingering snow pack and this cloud cover will limit temps. Friday will be on the warm side as well just ahead of the next system, with highs over the plains reaching into the 60s and 30s-40s over the higher terrain.
/issued 310 AM CST Thu Jan 28 2021/ Upper ridging will prevail over the region today, though an embedded subtropical disturbance will supply plenty of high-level cloudiness. Southerly winds will become modestly breezy this afternoon as we become situated between a sprawling ridge over the Mississippi River Valley and weak troughing in the lee of the Rockies. Temperatures will peak in the lower to middle 50s this afternoon under filtered sunshine.
422 AM MST Thu Jan 28 2021 An anomalously strong low pressure is located just off the coast of the Pacific Northwest. Weak lift out ahead of the low pressure is clipping the northern half of the area this morning. Given some areas have fresh snow and these widespread clouds decided to go lower than most of the guidance for highs today especially along the highway 160 corridor. The southwest flow continues tomorrow as a deep trough moves onshore the California coast. As the trough axis moves over the Great Basin in the evening, lift will be maximized over our forecast area.
342 AM MST Thu Jan 28 2021 The moist southwest flow will continue in the short term as the trough approaches. Then, we expect a relative break in the action tonight as the incoming trough turns mid-level flow more northerly; we will keep the Winter Weather Advisory in effect through 03Z as scheduled. Otherwise, much warmer temperatures are expected east of the Divide and across southern areas as warmer air advects into the area and helps mix out the boundary layer. This will also keep stronger winds across the Wind Corridor, and thus will continue the High Wind Warning across Natrona County today.
238 PM EST Thu Jan 28 2021 High pressure and cold air are all that's left from the low pressure system that has exited from the beginning of the week. Temperatures are expected to rebound back into the low 50s tomorrow across N.
Flow aloft will be northwesterly this evening as high pressure builds over the central US and the upper trough that brought the front lifts northeast. Mid-level subsidence will keep things dry and clear until after the period when the high moves east of our area. Temperatures will be on the cool side with the upper flow advecting in cooler and drier air. Temperatures tonight will be the coldest of the week as they dip into the low 30s and even some upper 20s north of highway 84. Highs on Friday will be slightly warmer given the more easterly flow at the surface.
/issued 1033 AM CST Thu Jan 28 2021/ Temperatures are currently in the low to mid 30s with a brisk 10 mph wind. Tonight, expect clear skies and calm winds as the high slowly shifts east into the Tennessee River Valley. With lows ranging from the lower 20s near the Tennessee River to upper 20s across Eastern Arkansas.
1025 AM MST Thu Jan 28 2021 An anomalously strong low pressure is located just off the coast of the Pacific Northwest. Weak lift out ahead of the low pressure is clipping the northern half of the area this morning. Given some areas have fresh snow and these widespread clouds decided to go lower than most of the guidance for highs today especially along the highway 160 corridor. The southwest flow continues tomorrow as a deep trough moves onshore the California coast. As the trough axis moves over the Great Basin in the evening, lift will be maximized over our forecast area.
/Tonight through Thursday/ The ridge axis shifted east of the area, allowing for southerly winds into the area and increasing warm air advection. Within the southerly flow on the west side of the ridge low, but fairly thin stratus, has remained in place roughly across the western half of the state. West and north expect to see warmer overnight lows where cloud cover is in place, however to the east where clear skies will last longer, a sharper drop is possible. Warm air advection should help to mitigate too steep a drop, but did keep lows cooler east compared to the rest of the area.
211 PM CST Thu Jan 28 2021 A weak upper-level short wave trough noted on 18Z water vapor imagery entering into New Mexico from Mexico is progged to continue to move to the northeast. Lows tonight are expected to be slightly warmer, with temperatures bottoming out around freezing.
TFJ Upper ridge will move to the east this morning. SW flow aloft is expected today and Friday which will continue to bring warmer air aloft into the region.
222 PM EST Thu Jan 28 2021 A large high pressure area will continue to bring a cold north flow accompanied by light lake effect snow and flurries across Lower Michigan into northern Indiana today; otherwise, partly to mostly cloudy skies will prevail.
MVFR cigs this morning will improve over the next few hours with VFR conditions at all sites by this afternoon with clearing sky cover as high pressure builds in. This cold, dry airmass and NW flow around the eastern periphery of an upper ridge across the Central CONUS will result in a mostly clear sky by this afternoon as snow showers taper off across the mountains. As high pressure becomes centered over the area tonight, winds become calm with a mostly clear sky and efficient radiational cooling for cold overnight temperatures about 5 to 7 degrees below normal.
Temperatures Friday will be warmer than today but still a bit below seasonal norms despite quite a bit of sunshine. Trough across the Rockies will really begin to amplify over the weekend as it heads eastward.
High pressure will move across the area today through Friday, resulting in dry weather. Went a little cooler than NBM for highs after coordinating with other WFO's, though not much given return sunshine should help to offset this concern.
224 PM EST Thu Jan 28 2021 Cold front is now exiting Florida and behind it is a strong high pressure is bringing sunny and cool conditions.
High pressure will build in overnight allowing winds to slacken and help keep our skies cloud-free. Temperatures will drop below freezing across GA/AL sections as well as normally colder spots in FL and conditions look good for frost formation.
1013 AM MST Thu Jan 28 2021 The moist southwest flow will continue in the short term as the trough approaches. Then, we expect a relative break in the action tonight as the incoming trough turns mid-level flow more southerly; we will keep the Winter Weather Advisory in effect through 03Z as scheduled. Otherwise, much warmer temperatures are expected east of the Divide and across southern areas as warmer air advects into the area and helps mix out the boundary layer. This will also keep stronger winds across the Wind Corridor, and thus will continue the High Wind Warning across Natrona County today.
The trough begins to move onto the California Coast tonight, turning the steering flow aloft more from the south. Lift will also improve along the Bighorn range Friday night, bringing an inch or two to the higher elevations. As the trough approaches, the winds across the central WY counties will gradually decrease.
/NEW/ /Through Tomorrow/ Quiet weather continues as we remain under the influence of an upper level ridge. Temperatures will struggle to reach out of the 40s across much of North Texas this afternoon, with highs in the low 50s elsewhere. Warmer conditions are expected tomorrow as southerly flow is re- established this afternoon/evening. Most locations should remain above freezing Friday morning, though sheltered and/or low-lying areas could see temperatures dip into the low 30s. Southerly winds will become breezy Friday morning as a lee trough tightens the surface pressure gradient over the region. /Issued 311 AM CST Thu Jan 28 2021/ /Friday night through next Thursday/ In addition to the breezy and warm conditions expected Friday night, we will see some of the energy from the approaching trough moving along the Red River.
1033 AM CST Thu Jan 28 2021 Temperatures are currently in the low to mid 30s with a brisk 10 mph wind. Tonight, expect clear skies and calm winds as the high slowly shifts east into the Tennessee River Valley. With lows ranging from the lower 20s near the Tennessee River to upper 20s across Eastern Arkansas.
Stratus eventually breaks up as the night progresses with core of high pressure building overhead. Expansive stratus deck has filled in nicely across SE MI early this morning which have even produced periods of flurries as an expansive high pressure system slowly fills in across Ontario and locations south into the Midwest and Great Lakes region. Ongoing cold air advection and cloud cover will support daytime highs in the low to mid 20s. Overnight lows to drop into the low to mid teens with associated wind chills in the low single digits. Seasonally strong high pressure system (~1032 mb, 90th climatological percentile per NAEFS/ECMWF climatology) will then hold over Ontario and extend south into the Great Lakes through the end of the week and will bring about a period of dry weather and slightly below normal temperatures.
Expect some cirrus to spill over an upper ridge over the plains, but this likely won't impact temps much. Mild temps forecast for Friday, as the southern plains upper ridge will shift into the MS River valley by evening, downstream of an upper low over the 4-corners region.
This system is dragging a strong cold front that came across the Florida Keys early this morning. The cold front is now crossing Cuba and entering the northwestern Caribbean Sea. The weather conditions in the Florida Keys have quickly improved with mostly sunny skies and temperatures in the low to mid 70s.
High pressure at the surface and upper ridging aloft are to thank for this nice, albeit chilly day, across the ArkLaMiss region. /28/ Prior discussion below: already affected temperatures overnight,where it has been warmer than expected. Right now temps are nearly 5 degrees warmer than expected, not sure how much cold advection will beat out the warmer start. Lowered afternoon highs along I-20 from the lower 50's about 1-2 degrees. Looking for generally clear skies tonight with the ridge getting closer and much lighter winds.
Temps are mild as the recent days of southwest flow aloft have brought warmer air into the region. A cold front is still expected tomorrow, switching winds around to northwest and bringing additional snow.
1201 PM EST Thu Jan 28 2021 A large high pressure area will continue to bring a cold north flow accompanied by light lake effect snow and flurries across Lower Michigan into northern Indiana today; otherwise, partly to mostly cloudy skies will prevail.
Cold air currently in place will keep temperatures a bit cooler overnight, with lows in the mid 30s north of I-10, but the returned moisture should eliminate a freezing threat. Winds will increase to light to moderate flow late Friday and Friday night across the Rio Grande Plains and the Hill Country as the pressure gradient tightens in response to an upper level trough approaching from the Desert Southwest.
251 PM CST Thu Jan 28 2021 The trend is for much warmer air over the extreme southwest counties late this afternoon, much like the HRRR model output. Highs can reach the low 60s over the Cimarron grasslands. and still only to just above the freezing point north of the K-96 corridor. The models that can produce visibility fields are all in agreement on a layer of freezing fog in the BL basically centered over northwest kansas.
224 PM CST Thu Jan 28 2021 Southerly winds will bring warmer temperatures today and especially tomorrow when highs in many locations exceed 70 degrees. Extrapolating 850mb temps to the surface from all models yields higher temperatures than NBM output so increased highs a few degrees with it possibly being even warmer depending on cloud cover.
Warmer temperatures are also expected Friday afternoon with highs in the 50s and 60s.
Stratus is developing under the ridge as well as advecting into the east on southeasterly flow this morning. Expect clouds to remain through the day across the east which could keep temps a bit cooler than currently forecast even with the WAA. Can't completely rule out a flurry or two under the low stratus in the east today, either.
High pressure will hold across the area through Friday night.
Afternoon highs remain cool, only reaching the low 60s across the north and upper 60s to near 70 degrees for the Treasure Coast. Volusia County should be the cool spot in the upper 50s due to winds coming off the cooler shelf waters. It is best to leave the Fire Weather Watch up for situational awareness, given the high wind speeds forecast.
Large scale ascent increases by Friday afternoon as a northern wave associated with a splitting trough moving through the Great Basin moves through the region.
A few remaining showers continue to rotate north and westward across the region this morning as the broad trough affecting the West Coast moves onshore.
As the high pushes east Friday, southeast winds will develop, but it will still be quite dry over the region. With only some variable coverage of high clouds expected went with the lower ConsMOS for dewpoints and tried to lean toward the warm side of guidance.
SHORT TERM (Now through Friday Night): 500 mb and surface ridging will remain in control of conditions over the RGV/Deep South TX over the short term period. However, the low level flow will be shifting around from the E-SE which will allow for WAA to steadily increase over the area from off of the Gulf of Mex and NE Mex. Will lean towards the warmer ECMWF/NAM for temps throughout the short term.
A few flurries could also fall out of the low clouds, although confidence is too low at this time to include in the forecast.
A thin stratus deck remains over the forecast area early this morning with temperatures in the lower and mid 20s and light easterly winds. As high pressure shifts east of Missouri during the day, winds will become more southerly. A few locations on the higher parts of the Ozarks Plateau where thicker snowpack resides may only rise into the mid 30s. Increasing south winds tonight will help hold overnight lows a few degrees warmer than early this morning, ranging between the mid 20s over the east to near 30 degrees along the KS and OK borders.
Despite a warmer day expected for Friday, we'll still start out on the cool side with most spots in the 40s with the exception of the immediate coastal communities.
1123 AM CST Thu Jan 28 2021 Latest nighttime microphysics is showing that the clearing of the low clouds has stopped across the CWA with stratus south of the Missouri River and west of the Mississippi River. Expect dry weather through tomorrow as an upper ridge moves across the area. Expect a sunny day, but with fresh snow cover, a cold start to the morning, and light southeasterly winds, expect highs to only climb into the low-mid 30s.
238 PM CST Thu Jan 28 2021 A low-level ridge axis will shift east of the forecast area this evening with low-level flow becoming south-southeasterly overnight allowing weak WAA to ensue. An upper-level ridge will approach the Midwest on Friday with mid- level height rises occurring over the region.
221 PM CST Thu Jan 28 2021 Clear skies have returned to the area this afternoon as high pressure straddles the eastern Missouri and western Illinois border. Light southeast winds have developed on the backside of the high pressure, helping to bring temperatures up a few degrees relative to yesterday. This will keep overnight lows more mild tonight, ranging from the low/mid 20s over the eastern Ozarks to around 30 degrees over SE Kansas and far western Missouri. Breezy southerly winds are in store for Friday as the pressure gradient increases behind the departing high pressure system to our east. The strongest wind gusts will mainly be west of the Highway 65 corridor. Highs will be above average, ranging from the mid/upper 40s over the eastern CWA to the low 50s over the western half of the CWA.
1033 AM MST Thu Jan 28 2021 Water vapor shows large upper ridge building from the Rockies into the Plains, with upper trof digging offshore the west coast. At the surface, low pressure resides over northeast WY with warm front extending eastward across the Black Hill and into south central SD. Warm front will nudge northeast today, resulting in highs rising into the 40s in many areas (a little cooler in northwest SD). Upper ridge maintains control through Friday, with highs a few degrees warmer.