Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
WV imagery shows the upper low centered over the South Plains, poised to send wraparound moisture into West Texas and Southeast New Mexico overnight. /ISSUED 143 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2015/ Upper low centered west of Childress will meander around W TX before slowly wobbling to the east. An upper ridge over the western U. will build in behind the low and remain over the area the rest of the week. This ridge will result in warmer and dryer wx for the region. Currently have a strong cold front moving through the area today with a north wind spreading across the CWA. and Tatum should drop into the 30s the next couple of night but expecting they will stay above freezing.
443 PM EDT MON APR 27 2015 HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES BUILDING INTO THE REGION AND WILL LINGER THROUGH TUESDAY.
1256 PM MDT MON APR 27 2015 LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS LARGE SCALE CLOSED UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER TX PANHANDLE WITH MID LEVEL VORTICITY ROTATING THROUGH OK/SOUTHER KS. GOOD RADIATION CONDITIONS SHOULD ALLOW FOR LOCATIONS IN OUR CWA TO REACH FREEZING (POSSIBLY LOWER) TONIGHT. H5 RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD EAST AND TEMPS ALOFT WILL MODERATE A LITTLE.
A LONG WAVE RIDGE IS IN PLACE ALONG THE WEST COAST. THE THERMAL TROUGH IS SWINGING INLAND OVER THE WEST SIDE VALLEYS. THE RIDGE WILL BREAK TO THE EAST OF THE AREA THIS EVENING. THE THERMAL TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE EAST SIDE TUESDAY. A COMPLEX TWO PART SHORT WAVE EJECTED FROM THE UPSTREAM TROUGH WILL MOVE ONSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT.
120 PM EDT MON APR 27 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY EAST FROM TEXAS TO GEORGIA.
359 PM MST MON APR 27 2015 A WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
350 PM EDT MON APR 27 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY EAST FROM TEXAS TO GEORGIA.
301 PM EDT MON APR 27 2015 A BEAUTIFUL SUNNY DAY IS PREVAILING ACROSS THE EASTERN TENNESSEE VALLEY AND THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION AS TEMPERATURES HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE LOW TO UPPER 60S AS OF MID-AFTERNOON.
DRY/SEASONABLE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED NEAR/ OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST THRU TONIGHT/TUE. GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES/GOOD VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THRU MID DAY TUE AS THE HIGH AND ITS DRY LOW/MID LEVEL AIRMASS HOLDS OVER MN/IA/WI.
AND THEN INCREASING WINDS/ LOWERED CIGS WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. IT WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE TERMINALS TONIGHT WITH WINDS BECOMING NORTHERLY 10 TO 15 KNOTS /WITH STRONGER GUSTS POSSIBLE/ IN ITS WAKE ON TUESDAY MORNING. AS WE HEAT UP AND THE UPPER LOW NEAR WICHITA FALLS CONTINUES TO TREK EAST THIS SHOULD PLACE SETX IN A FAVORABLE REGION FOR SEVERE WEATHER WITH SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT. COLD FRONT SHOULD ARRIVE IN THE HOUSTON AREA AFTER 2 AM WITH MODERATE COLD ADVECTION. THE HIGH RESOLUTION HRRR MODEL AGREED WITH THE GLOBAL MODELS IN MOVING THE CURRENT CONVECTION EAST OF THE AREA WHILE POSSIBLY DEVELOPING MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LOW IN NM MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. AT LEAST MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FROM KHOU TO THE COAST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
252 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015 CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE FORECAST AREA NESTLED IN BETWEEN TWO POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOWS. WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WAS BUILDING INTO THE AREA. AS THE LOW OVER TEXAS SLOWLY PUSHES EASTWARD. WAS HELPING KEEP TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. THE UPPER LOW OVER TEXAS WILL CONTINUE ITS EASTWARD PROGRESSION OVERNIGHT. AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES OVER THE AREA. STILL LOOKS LIKE THERE MAY BE ENOUGH FORCING AS THE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE FORECAST AREA.
/06/ RAIN HAS DECREASED OVER PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA IN NORTHEAST TEXAS AND ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS NORTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES AND INVERTED TROUGH.
1237 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015 FOR 18Z TAFS /ISSUED 1030 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015/ COLD AIR ADVECTION STILL IN PLACE IN THE LOW LEVELS AS NORTHERLY FLOW AROUND A LARGE LOW OFF THE COAST OF MAINE CONTINUES. THIS WILL BRING WARMER 850 MB TEMPERATURES TO PORTIONS OF NORTHERN ALABAMA.
DEWPOINT BOUNDARY HOWEVER IS CONSIDERABLY FURTHER NORTH INDICATED BY A SUBTLE TROUGH AND ROUGHLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A CSG TO MCN LINE. LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AS CLOSED UPPER LOW MOVES SLOWLY EAST OUT OF TEXAS. AS UPPER LOW TRACKS ACROSS NORTHERN ALABAMA.
Still looks like a mostly sunny day ahead with highs in the low to mid 60s. Cool and dry weather will continue through Tuesday in the Ohio Valley, as the NW flow on the backside of an eastern CONUS trof gives way to upper ridging building in from the Plains and the Upper Midwest. Expect most locations to bottom out in the lower 40s Tuesday morning, in fairly similar fashion to this morning.
253 PM EDT MON APR 27 2015 HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES BUILDING INTO THE REGION AND WILL LINGER THROUGH TUESDAY.
240 PM PDT Mon Apr 27 2015 High pressure will bring dry weather and above normal temperatures to the area through the week.
553 PM EDT MON APR 27 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL PROVIDE UNSETTLED WEATHER AND CLOUDS THROUGH MIDWEEK AS IT MEANDERS NEARBY. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM MID 30S TO THE LOWER 40S. THE UPPER LOW WILL SHIFT A BIT FURTHER EAST. CLOUDS LINGER TUESDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH A FEW STRAY SHOWERS OR FLURRIES AS THE LOW REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY OFFSHORE. MEAN LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MEANDER AROUND OUR REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. STRONG LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE THIS WEEK. SCA CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP LATE IN THE WEEK AND THE WEEKEND AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL SOUTH OF THE WATERS.
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS TO THE REGION TODAY AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER INTERIOR NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER TODAY THAN THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS.
WHILE FROST AND FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL BE LIKELY OVERNIGHT. WITH A RIDGING BUILDING AT THE SURFACE. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO FALL AT OR BELOW FREEZING ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION TONIGHT.
AN H5 RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES WILL BEGIN BUILDING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
1107 AM EDT SAT OCT 17 2015 COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE GIVES WIDESPREAD FROST AND FREEZE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING.
Deep convection continues to fire to the east of Sacramento over the foothills and Sierra in the difluent region ahead of slowly approaching trough off the coast. The low lingers over NorCal into Sunday and shower activity should be limited to the higher elevations of the Sierra.
SURFACE RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE MIDWEST TODAY SLIDES TO THE OHIO VALLEY ON SUNDAY WHILE EXTENDING INTO TEXAS. PWS OF LESS THAN ONE INCH UNDERNEATH A MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL NOT ALLOW FOR RAIN.
A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO MUCH OF THE REGION TODAY ALONG WITH COOLING TEMPERATURES.
714 AM EDT SAT OCT 17 2015 A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST CONUS WILL BRING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO CENTRAL PA THIS WEEKEND. WIDESPREAD NIGHTTIME FREEZING CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY END THE GROWING SEASON. HOWEVER THE PLACEMENT IS SLIGHTLY SW OF THE LOWER RES MODEL CONSENSUS. EITHER WAY THE HIGHEST POPS WILL BE FOCUSED OVER THE NW MTNS IN CLOSE PROXIMITY/DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE. A LIGHT NW FLOW GRADIENT AND STRATOCU CLOUDS WILL TRY TO PROP UP TEMPS AND LATEST BLENDS ACTUALLY CAME IN A LITTLE WARMER THAN PREVIOUS FCST. THE 850MB THERMAL TROUGH /-4C TO -8C/ WILL MOVE THROUGH ON SUNDAY WITH ONE MORE DAY OF SEASONABLY COLD.
1009 AM EDT SAT OCT 17 2015 WEAK LOW PRESSURE CROSSING NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY WILL DRIVE A TRAILING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
WHILE FROST AND FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL BE LIKELY OVERNIGHT. WITH A RIDGING BUILDING AT THE SURFACE. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO FALL AT OR BELOW FREEZING ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION TONIGH.
A DRY COLD FRONT LOCATED FROM THE MID ATLANTIC INTO THE OH VALLEY IS CURRENTLY MAKING ITS WAY EWD. SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR LOOKS TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE LOCAL AREA LATER TODAY/TONIGHT. WITH THIS INFLUX OF COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION RESULTING IN OVERNIGHT TEMPS FALLING INTO MAINLY THE LOWER/MID 30S RANGE. AS THE STRONG DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES WELL ESTABLISHED ACROSS MUCH OF THE ERN CONUS. A FAIRLY STRONG UPPER RIDGE PATTERN DEVELOPING OVER THE CNTRL GULF COASTAL STATES AFTER MID WEEK SHOULD LEND SOME SUPPORT TO THIS MODEST WARMING TREND.
DEWPOINTS ARE PRIMARILY IN THE LOW 30S ACROSS THE AREA, WHICH HAS ALLOWED TEMPS TO QUICKLY RISE THIS MORNING INTO THE 60S. MIXING PROMOTED BY THESE WINDS IS HELPING TO KEEP TEMPS A LITTLE WARMER THAN THEY OTHERWISE MIGHT BE ALTHOUGH APPARENT TEMPERATURES THROUGH 10 TO 11 AM MAY NECESSITATE A LIGHT JACKET FOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE 1 TO 2 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY.
OVERALL FORECAST STILL ON TRACK WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND NORTHWEST FLOW TODAY. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE MORNING HAVE BEEN TRENDING WARMER. CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 65 40 62 39 / 0 0 0 0 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 61 36 58 36 / 0 0 0 0 OAK RIDGE, TN 62 36 58 36 / 0 0 0 0 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 58 31 54 31 / 0 0 0 0 NC.
THIS TROUGH REPRESENTS WHAT IS LEFT OF THE CLOSED LOW THAT WAS SPINNING NEAR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA YESTERDAY. THE TROUGH AXIS IS FORECAST TO CROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA TODAY, EXITING THE REGION LATE THIS EVENING. SURFACE DEW POINTS THIS MORNING ARE ALSO ABNORMALLY HIGH, WITH VALUES RANGING FROM THE LOW 60'S TO THE MID 40'S - THE DRIEST CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS. AS THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE TROUGH APPROACHES THE AREA ON SUNDAY.
929 AM CDT SAT OCT 17 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE LEE OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. AN H5 RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES WILL BEGIN BUILDING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
715 AM CDT SAT OCT 17 2015 PIECE OF ENERGY ROTATING INTO THE GREAT LAKES TROUGH THIS MORNING HELPING TO TIGHTEN UP MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPS WHICH WERE MUCH COOLER EARLIER IN THE NIGHT HAVE RISEN WELL ABOVE FREEZING. AND HAVE DROPPED SEVERAL COUNTIES FROM THE FREEZE WARNING FROM CLAY IA SOUTHWARD TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE WARMER TEMPS UNDER THE CLOUDS. COULD DRIVE TEMPS BACK DOWN TOWARD THE LOWER TO MID 30S.
1136 AM CDT SAT OCT 17 2015 PIECE OF ENERGY ROTATING INTO THE GREAT LAKES TROUGH THIS MORNING HELPING TO TIGHTEN UP MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPS WHICH WERE MUCH COOLER EARLIER IN THE NIGHT HAVE RISEN WELL ABOVE FREEZING. AND HAVE DROPPED SEVERAL COUNTIES FROM THE FREEZE WARNING FROM CLAY IA SOUTHWARD TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE WARMER TEMPS UNDER THE CLOUDS. COULD DRIVE TEMPS BACK DOWN TOWARD THE LOWER TO MID 30S.
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL CALIFORNIA ON SUNDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN BEHIND A COLD FRONT WHICH WAS MOVING OFF OUR LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS OFFSHORE COASTAL WATERS. COLD AIR ADVECTION OFFSET BY DAYTIME FALL SOLAR INSOLATION SHOULD RESULT IN AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AROUND 8-12 DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WORKING INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF OUR LATEST FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL YIELD NORTHEASTERLY WINDS. /ISSUED 431 AM CDT SAT OCT 17 2015/ WINDS HAVE REMAIN UP OVERNIGHT AND THIS HAS HELP MIX THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE ENOUGH TO HOLD TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 60S. CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL TODAY OVER THE REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE COMING WEEK AHEAD.
1000 AM PDT SAT OCT 17 2015 LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BRING THE POSSIBILITY OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS THROUGH SUNDAY.
A prolonged period of freezing temperatures, possibly into the upper or middle 20s, is most likely in the zone from Carbondale through Mt Vernon Illinois. Many areas over southwest Indiana and the Pennyrile region of Kentucky will likely drop near the freezing mark by daybreak, but will not be there long.
LATEST AVAILABLE IR SATELLITE IMAGERY OVERLAID WITH MODEL STREAMLINE ANALYSIS AS OF 900 AM DISPLAYS A LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGH PARKED ACROSS THE THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN THE FLOW AT THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO IS DAMPENING OUT. AT THE SURFACE AND IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE LEVELS. THE LATEST IR SATELLITE IMAGERY OVERLAID WITH MARINE AND LAND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AS OF 900 AM DETAIL THE 1035 MB SURFACE CENTER OF AN ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN MISSOURI. THERE IS A COLD FRONT BISECTING NORTH FLORIDA. WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS ALL WATERS BY THIS EVENING AS THE MASS OF COOLER AND DRIER AIR DISPLACES ITSELF SOUTHWARD TO ACROSS THE KEYS.
950 AM EDT SAT OCT 17 2015 THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW DRY AND COOL WEATHER IS EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND THE OHIO VALLEY PROVIDING MOSTLY SUNNY DAYS AND MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHTS. AS THE HIGH MOVES TO OUR EAST ON SUNDAY NIGHT. BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL MAKE IT FEEL EVEN COOLER. EXPECTING MORE WIDESPREAD SUBFREEZING TEMPS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY.
THOUGH THERE SHOULD BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE AT TIMES UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TODAY WITH SOUTHERN WISCONSIN IN THE STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH. AS THE LOW LEVELS MIX OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT FREEZING TEMPERATURES AGAIN TONIGHT.
THIS MOISTURE HAS BEEN CARRIED INTO THE REGION ON A SOUTH- SOUTHWEST FLOW THAT DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THE CUT OFF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST.
737 AM EDT SAT OCT 17 2015 AVIATION COLD WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVER THE WEEKEND WITH SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TODAY AND FROST AND FREEZING TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE ON SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST AND WINDS SWITCH TO THE SOUTH. WILL CONTINUE THE HIGHER POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE/HIGHER INVERSION HEIGHTS ARE. SFC RIDGING BUILDS IN TONIGHT AND HEIGHTS ARE RISING AS THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES EAST. WE WILL SEE THE LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS TAPER OFF AND SKIES CLEAR WITH WIDESPREAD FROST AND FREEZING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.
A DRY COLD FRONT IN NORTH FLORIDA WILL MOVE TO THE I-4 CORRIDOR THIS EVENING THEN THROUGH FORT MYERS OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE TO CREATE VFR CONDITIONS NEXT 24 HOURS.
SURFACE ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. THIS HIGH IS GENERALLY CENTERED ACROSS THE MIDWEST. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS HIGH SLOW SETTLING SE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. UPPER LEVEL WISE WE STILL HAVE THE BROAD TROUGH IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS THIS MORNING. THIS BROAD TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD AND INTRODUCE SOME HEIGHT RISES. THE MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WILL BE THE FREEZING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S IN THE VALLEYS AND LOWER 30S ON THE RIDGES. WITH 850MB TEMPS BELOW FREEZING AREA WIDE TODAY AND SUNDAY LEAVING HIGHS IN MID TO UPPER 50S. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE DRIVING FORCE THROUGH THE EXTENDED.
QUITE A BIT OF FROST THIS MORNING AND SOME LOCATIONS ON THE HIGHLAND RIM AND UPPER CUMBERLAND EVEN OBSERVED FREEZING TEMPERATURES. EVEN COLDER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND WE'LL LIKELY HAVE TO ISSUE A FREEZE WARNING FOR LOCATIONS ON THE HIGHLAND RIM AND CUMBERLAND PLATEAU. JACKSON DRY AIR AND BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH EXPECTED TO KEEP VFR CONDITIONS RUNNING THROUGH THE CYCLE.
912 AM CDT SAT OCT 17 2015 TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING HAVE CLIMBED BACK TO THE FREEZING MARK OR ABOVE ACROSS ALMOST THE ENTIRE AREA.
HIGH PRESSURE WORKING INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF OUR LATEST FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL YIELD NORTHEASTERLY WINDS. /ISSUED 431 AM CDT SAT OCT 17 2015/ WINDS HAVE REMAIN UP OVERNIGHT AND THIS HAS HELP MIX THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE ENOUGH TO HOLD TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 60S. CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL TODAY OVER THE REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE COMING WEEK AHEAD.
1102 AM EDT SAT OCT 17 2015 A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST CONUS WILL BRING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO CENTRAL PA THIS WEEKEND. WIDESPREAD NIGHTTIME FREEZING CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY END THE GROWING SEASON. DUBOIS REPORTED A PERIOD OF SNOW THOUGH ABOVE FREEZING SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS. HOWEVER THE PLACEMENT IS SLIGHTLY SW OF THE LOWER RES MODEL CONSENSUS. EITHER WAY THE HIGHEST POPS WILL BE FOCUSED OVER THE NW MTNS IN CLOSE PROXIMITY/DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE. A LIGHT NW FLOW GRADIENT AND STRATOCU CLOUDS WILL TRY TO PROP UP TEMPS AND LATEST BLENDS ACTUALLY CAME IN A LITTLE WARMER THAN PREVIOUS FCST. THE 850MB THERMAL TROUGH /-4C TO -8C/ WILL MOVE THROUGH ON SUNDAY WITH ONE MORE DAY OF SEASONABLY COLD.
A MID/UPPER RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES IS PROGGED TO TRANSLATE EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES TODAY. CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY IMPACT HIGH TEMPERATURES AND TRENDED VALUES LOWER ACROSS THE AREA WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S ANTICIPATED. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE ON SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. A MID/UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED TO MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD OVER THE SOUTHWEST STATES THROUGH MIDWEEK LIFTING OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS LATE IN THE WEEK.
The low lingers over NorCal into Sunday and shower activity should be limited to the higher elevations of the Sierra.
THEN SHIFTING EAST AHEAD OF UPPER RIDGE OVER CANADIAN ROCKIES. PRIMARY CHALLENGE FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE SKY TRENDS AND TEMPERATURES AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST BY MID AFTN AND CALM TO WEAK WESTERLY SFC WINDS WILL TURN MORE SOUTHEASTERLY IN THE DVL BASIN REGION BY MID AFTN. THIS WILL HELP TEMPS ONCE AGAIN CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL THEN SPREAD ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND PROVIDE ENOUGH WEAK MIXING AND WARM ADVECTION TO KEEP TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.
739 AM EDT SAT OCT 17 2015 A STATIONARY FRONT WAS LOCATED OVER EXTREME SOUTHERN PORTION OF SOUTH FLORIDA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A COLD FRONT OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE DOWN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. MOISTURE GRADIENT REMAINS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER TN VLY GRADUALLY BUILDS TOWARD THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE SURGES SOUTH.
A MID/UPPER RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES IS PROGGED TO TRANSLATE EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES TODAY. CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY IMPACT HIGH TEMPERATURES AND TRENDED VALUES LOWER ACROSS THE AREA WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S ANTICIPATED. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE ON SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. A MID/UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED TO MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD OVER THE SOUTHWEST STATES THROUGH MIDWEEK LIFTING OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS LATE IN THE WEEK. WITH LEE TROUGH OVER HIGH PLAINS GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
A WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TODAY AND SUNDAY.
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 65 40 62 39 / 0 0 0 0 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 61 36 58 36 / 0 0 0 0 OAK RIDGE, TN 62 36 58 36 / 0 0 0 0 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 58 31 54 31 / 0 0 0 0 NC.
1112 AM EDT SAT OCT 17 2015 MORNING SFC ANALYSIS AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE A DRY COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA. COOLER AIR WILL FILTER IN WITH MAX TEMPS EXPECTED IN THE MID/UPPER 70S ACROSS SE GA AND LOW/MID 80S FOR MOST OF NE FL. DRY COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY PASSING THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ON THE BACK SIDE SHIFTING WINDS TO THE NORTHEAST BY TONIGHT.
DRY AND QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE RESIDES OVER THE REGION. HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD AND PACIFIC MOISTURE BEINGS PUSHING INTO THE REGION.
1000 AM EDT SAT OCT 17 2015 THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW DRY AND COOL WEATHER IS EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND THE OHIO VALLEY PROVIDING MOSTLY SUNNY DAYS AND MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHTS. AS THE HIGH MOVES TO OUR EAST ON SUNDAY NIGHT. BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL MAKE IT FEEL EVEN COOLER. EXPECTING MORE WIDESPREAD SUBFREEZING TEMPS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY.
Afternoon highs today will again be unseasonably warm, mainly in the lower to mid 70s.
/ISSUED 522 AM CST TUE DEC 22 2015/ A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS SNAKING OVER THE FOUR STATE AREA WITH DENSE FOG IN THE COOL AIR OVER WARMER GROUND. SOME VALLEY FOG IS THICK FROM TEXARKANA TO SHREVEPORT AND HUGGING THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF TERRAIN. THIS NEXT COLD FRONT WILL PUSH DEEPER INTO THE FOUR STATE AREA. THE WARM FRONT SHOULD LIFT TO OUR NORTH JUST ENOUGH TO KEEP THE THREAT OF FLOODING UPSTREAM. THE COLD FRONT AND CLOSED LOW WILL WRAP UP AND MOVE THROUGH RATHER PROGRESSIVELY FOR OUR AREA FROM WEST TO EAST AND SHOULD LIMIT DURATION OF RAINFALL.
133 PM EST TUE DEC 22 2015 A WARM AND MOIST SOUTH FLOW WILL DOMINATE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK ASSOCIATED WITH OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE AND A STALLED FRONTAL SYSTEM. A MOIST AND WARM SOUTH FLOW BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE IN THE ATLANTIC AND LOW PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL PART OF THE NATION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. HAVE STAYED WITH WPC GUIDANCE QPF FOR NOW WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS WEST. IN THE LOWER 60S. THE GFS AND ECMWF GENERALLY INDICATE HIGH PRESSURE IN THE ATLANTIC CIRCULATING WARM AND MOIST AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA DURING MUCH OF THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD.
COLD FRONT IS PASSING THROUGH THE CWA THIS MORNING. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS FAR SE MT NEAR THE NW SD BORDER. TEMPS ACROSS THESE LOCATIONS ARE ALSO REMAINING IN THE LOW 40S VS 20/30S ACROSS THE REST OF THE CWA. MODELS SHOW LOW PRESSURE SWINGING INTO ND TODAY WITH SW WINDS BECOMING MORE WRLY THROUGH THE MORNING.
MODEL SOUNDING DO INDICATE THAT THE LOWER LEVEL WILL BE NEAR SATURATION WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING TONIGHT. GIVEN THAT WE HAVE HAD TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING FOR SEVERAL HOURS. HOWEVER GIVEN THE LOW CONFIDENCE SREF PROBABILITIES AND LIKELY LOCALIZED NATURE.
QUESTION AS TO WHETHER THE WEAK COLD FRONT. WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS IN ZONES SOUTH OF I-70 DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST WILL SUPPORT STRENGTHENING WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MOISTURE OVER THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. WITH THE FOCUS FOR THE HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS EAST OF THE OH/PA BORDER. MOISTURE AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE STORY THROUGH CHRISTMAS EVE AT WHICH POINT LOW PRESSURE. WILL SWING A COLD FRONT TOWARD THE REGION.
COLD FRONT MADE IT TO NEAR THE COAST OVERNIGHT. TEMPS IN THE LOWER 50S ACROSS NW AREAS AND IN THE LOWER 60S COAST.
/ISSUED 426 AM CST TUE DEC 22 2015/ BROAD TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES THIS MORNING WILL TRANSLATE EASTWARD WHILE STRENGTHENING SOMEWHAT.
BUT GIVEN THE HIGH SNOWFALL RATES DURING MID-LATE AFTERNOON (END OF SCHOOL DAY AND EVENING COMMUTE) TRAVEL IMPACTS WILL BE SIGNIFICANT.
WITH WEAK RIDGING PARKED FROM THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ATLANTIC. DEEP LAYER RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC. AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SETTLE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC.
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE ROCKIES MOVES ACROSS THE PLAINS OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY PUSHING A DRYLINE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. EXCEPT FOR BURNET AND WILLIAMSON COUNTIES AS STRONGEST FORCING PASSES BY TO THE NORTH OF OUR AREA WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT MAINTAINS DRY MID LEVEL AIR MOST OF OUR AREA.
There will be a cold front that surges from west to east during the afternoon, and it's likely storms will develop with this feature along and east of a line from Branson to Crocker. Low level wind shear will also increase as the low level jet increases later tonight and should continue through the end of the period.