Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Some showers occurred in the afternoon over the high sierra due to a disturbance pushing towards SE CA. Model progs show the ridge off the west coast build inland starting today.
A cold front will produce additional precipitation Tuesday.
1009 AM EDT Mon May 3 2021 A low pressure system over western Kentucky will approach the region today with increasing moisture and the opportunity for showers and a few thunderstorms.
Widespread development this morning was largely associated a passing warm front and an upper wave. This warm front now well up in the OH valley and the upper wave has pushed off to the east, thus we are seeing a brief lull. Low-level jet dynamics have dropped off a bit but now being in the warm sector, we will see our instability climb with breaks in the clouds and dewpoints in the low/mid 60s. Even following these, Tues afternoon we may see yet another episode of storms as the cold front get set to push through.
Cooler than normal temperatures will continue into midweek. However additional low pressure development along the front to our south should send another round of rain with embedded thunderstorms northeast, primarily affecting areas east of I-55 on Tuesday.
1209 PM EDT Mon May 3 2021 Periodic shower and thunderstorm chances are expected through the first half of the week with a series of crossing low pressure areas. Otherwise, showers and a few thunderstorms can be expected this evening as the mid/upper level trough axis completes passage.
A large upper trof located from the northern Plains to the 4 Corners region meanwhile advances eastward, and becomes oriented along the Mississippi River valley by late Tuesday afternoon. Bulk shear values will be low Tuesday morning, 20-25 knots, but then increase to 35-45 knots in the afternoon with the highest values over the northwestern portion of the area. Lows tonight will be mild and mostly in the lower 70s, and highs on Tuesday range from the lower 80s near the coast to the mid to upper 80s further inland.
Temperatures actually manged to climb into the low 70s in our far southeast before convection developed, which contributed around 500-1000 J/kg SBCAPE. The low and associated front will quickly push off to the east late this afternoon and evening with gusty northwest winds in their wake.
249 PM CDT Mon May 3 2021 A broad upper level trough sits over the eastern half of the Northern Plains early this afternoon. Thankfully, the lowest humidity values (west) this afternoon are not expected to fully overlap with the strongest winds (south central and east). Slightly warmer temperatures and weaker winds are expected, with highs ranging from the mid 50s northeast to mid 60s southwest.
This pcpn is associated with a passing warm front and an upper wave. This warm front now up in KY and the upper wave will move east of the mid-state shortly.
131 PM PDT Mon May 3 2021 An area of high pressure will make its presence known over the next few days with warm and dry weather.
(This evening through Tuesday) Cold front has sagged into the Big Country and northern Permian Basin late this afternoon, with satellite showing a little agitated Cu development from Snyder and Big Spring west into New Mexico just north of the front. This air mass will settle south overnight and help make for a cooler day tomorrow, aided by some low cloudiness for at least the morning hours.
1215 PM CDT Mon May 3 2021 Latest radar imagery shows a few showers over NW Iowa and NE Nebraska, associated with a cold front that continues to depart the region. As a result, expect highs to remain on the cooler side (compared to the last few days), with temperatures forecast to only climb into the upper 50s to low 60s. Given that winds will be light, wouldn't be surprised to see some frost develop in those areas near freezing.
South to southeasterly winds will increase to moderate in advance of a cold front.
The high resolution models have been inconsistent with initial development, again due to the conditional environment. A second chance for storms comes with the arrival of a cold front overnight. Behind the front, north to northeasterly winds bring in relatively cooler and drier air. Tomorrow's high temperatures will be close to 10 degrees cooler than today with skies clearing from west to east.
400 PM CDT Mon May 3 2021 The latest HRRR runs look aggressive with widespread rain and rain shower/thunderstorms spreading out of the panhandles and southeast CO between about 4 pm and 7 pm eastward to the highway 283-183 corridors. Overnight lows look mainly in the 40s over much of the area, with some of the MOS looking of cooler temps in the upper 30s over the west central Kansas counties. South central Kansas counties may see even warmer overnight lows around 50s degrees, but mid to upper 40s seems more probable from the model.
Another low pressure system will pass south of the area late Tuesday into Tuesday night. After another day in the 60s to around 70 on Tuesday, expect cooler air to shift into the region as a cold front drops south into the Ohio Valley/Tennessee Valley once the aforementioned low passes to the east.
Falling heights due to an approaching upper-trough aloft will generate steep mid-level lapse rates conducive for strong supercells. Otherwise, conditions to improve with skies clearing Tuesday night with overnight lows in the lower to middle 50s.
1204 PM MDT Mon May 3 2021 Water vapor shows trof axis extending from the Northern Plains into the Four Corners region, with upper ridge along the west coast. Slightly warmer temps expected on Tuesday with return flow.
SR Chattanooga Airport, TN 67 82 63 75 50 / 40 90 90 40 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 66 81 63 72 48 / 40 70 90 50 0 Oak Ridge, TN 65 79 61 72 47 / 40 70 80 40 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 59 81 60 71 45 / 40 70 80 60 10.
Current hi-res satellite imagery shows a vigorous upper level low with attendant showers and thunderstorms churning through Central Kansas during the early morning hours. Temperatures will dip a little in northern areas of the CWA which is in the main area of the upper low.
The forecast calls for these winds to decrease through the over- night hours as the gradient weakens ahead of the cold front. Otherwise, the better rain chances should be with/along the cold front itself. As cooler/drier air filters down into the area tomorrow night, lows in the 50s/low 60s are on tap.
104 PM CDT Mon May 3 2021 Little has changed in today's forecast: storm development is still highly contingent on the strength of forcing along the cold front as it drops through the region. A baroclinic boundary currently draped through South Dakota and Iowa will drop southeast today as a cold front, moving through the forecast area this afternoon and evening. Shear within the lower levels is expected to be largely parallel to the front, indicating that some storms could merge into linear segments. Mid-level ridging over the region during the day will attempt to stunt widespread storm development. While the mid-level ridging will limit widespread linear development, the environment is favorable for discrete storms to form initially off of the front before merging into small linear segments.
A cold front will slowly move across the Midsouth tonight and tomorrow. Diffluent flow aloft will shift over the area ahead of a deep trough swinging across the Plains. Dew points are in the low to mid 70s with PW's near 1. As the trough approaches shear will increase. The potential for damaging wind will exist with any storm but will likely be enhanced along the cold front. Slightly cooler temperatures tomorrow should help limit instability. The cold front is expected to approach the Mississippi river during the early afternoon hours. The potential for damaging wind will exist with any storm but will likely be enhanced along the cold front as it sweeps across the area. Cooler and drier air will move in tomorrow night.
Clearing skies are expected Tuesday night and freezing to below freezing temperatures are possible in valley locations.
(This evening through Overnight) Storms are expected to develop quickly late this afternoon into this evening along a cold front that will be located across portions of southeast into south central Oklahoma. A favorable environment for severe storms will exist ahead of the cold front across this area. Meanwhile, farther west as the main trough begins to shift east out of the southern Rockies, additional storms will develop across west Texas. These storms will be elevated as they form well north of the surface cold front. Otherwise, quite a bit colder air will filter south behind the cold front.
210 PM CDT Mon May 3 2021 (Issued 210 PM CDT Mon May 3 2021) Tonight through Tuesday night: Weak low pressure moving along nearly stationary frontal boundary into this evening. Attendant cold front will get pulled through. After the low and cold front move through this evening winds will shift northwest with cold advection getting underway. The low level thermal trough will then setup which will likely keep a good deal of cloud cover around on Tuesday.
217 PM CDT Mon May 3 2021 Increasing mid-level ascent and destabilization ahead of an upper level short wave trough moving across the 4-corners and Colorado Rockies already assisting in firing convection from the western Panhandle to the Sangre de Cristos southward to the Sacramentos. The upper trough will move east of the Panhandle and South Plains late tonight with showers and storms moving east with it. The exiting trough will also bring a reinforcing northerly low level flow and associated modest cold advection. MOS and init blend look good with values about ten degrees cooler than seasonal norms.
254 PM CDT Mon May 3 2021 Currently, stratocumulus continue to stream through the area and have helped to keep temperatures generally in the low to mid-50s. High clouds in association with an upper low over Colorado are moving into the area from the southwest. This upper low is driving rain/snow across the Colorado Front Range, though any precipitation will remain off to our south. That being said, a gradual decrease in clouds is expected overnight as the upper low over Colorado continues to depart off to the south and east.
Mostly dry and cooler conditions will occur tonight with some clearing. High pressure will slide east across Iowa Tuesday night.
The front itself will produce a first round of heavier rain later this afternoon and again overnight with the aforementioned troughs. with warmer temperatures in the southern part of the forecast area closer to the Saginaw Bay area.
High pressure will remain in control through the first part of the week before becoming elongated and finally moving eastward.
Later, the associated cold front will bring chances for showers and storms to the area, again more likely for KAUS but mention of vicinity storms at san antonio sites was included. Texas is between two upper level troughs this morning with nearly zonal flow in place. High pressure over the Gulf has the low level flow from the south over the eastern half of South Central Texas while the western half is has less well defined winds in a transition to low pressure farther west.
Will see much cooler weather through midweek as the upper pattern briefly evolves into a higher amplitude pattern and an upper trough moves through the region.
1255 PM CDT Mon May 3 2021 The short term will be relatively quiet as the cold front continues to move east. This evening, an upper level trough, currently centered over the Great Basin, will move southeastward over the southern Rockies and leave west and north central Nebraska with a much calmer wind regime and clearer skies in its wake. The combination of the two creates for much cooler overnight temps in the low- to mid- 30s. Into the day Tuesday, highs will reach into the low to mid 60s, which is only a couple degrees below normal for this time of year.
A warm and humid south flow persists this afternoon between low pressure in the southern plains and high pressure centered over the Atlantic. With lift increasing in the afternoon as the cold front approaches numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop.
Pacific cold front, currently off the northwest coast, will pass through late tonight and Tuesday morning with a chance of light rain and snow showers in northern-most mountains.
Trailing from the MCV vicinity is a cold front, which now stretches southwestward to just west of Boonville. Behind the front, cooler and drier air has begun to advect into the region, along with a broken deck of low stratus. As the main upper trough moves across the region overnight, another round of post-frontal showers is expected to develop south of the area and move northeast across the southeastern half of the CWA. Highs will be largely tied to the location/duration of cloud cover/precip of the departing morning activity, with areas of eastern Kansas and northwest Missouri expected to warm into the lower 60s - with middle to upper 50s elsewhere.
Clouds and cold advection will keep high temperatures in west and central zones similar to today, but eastern zones should see slightly warmer conditions, into mid 60s.
1229 PM CDT Mon May 3 2021 Surface analysis early this morning has low pressure over central IA with a frontal boundary extending from the low east/northeastward through southern WI. Radar showing showers and embedded thunderstorms along and north of the frontal boundary in isentropic upglide/moisture transport ahead of the low. Otherwise, northerly winds will fill in behind the passing low, ushering in a cooler airmass. High pressure builds in tonight through Tuesday with a much chillier airmass. Cooler than normal conditions will linger through the week as a long wave trough establishes itself over the eastern CONUS.
223 PM MDT Mon May 3 2021 Visible satellite imagery this afternoon still showing overcast skies from a trough axis sitting in Utah. Cloudiness will begin to clear as the trough pushes east this evening/tonight. This time of year makes precipitation-type forecasting very difficult because of temperatures being right on the line between freezing and not freezing. High-amplitude upper-level ridging will promote a warm & generally dry end to the work week across the region.
We may see a break in the action during the mid morning to early afternoon period, but additional showers and storms (final wave) could fire up along an advancing cold front and persist up through midnight tomorrow. The severe threat should diminish significantly behind the cold front late tomorrow night.
125 PM EDT Mon May 3 2021 Periodic shower and thunderstorm chances are expected through the first half of the week with a series of crossing low pressure areas. Otherwise, showers and a few thunderstorms can be expected this evening as the mid/upper level trough axis completes passage.
136 PM EDT Mon May 3 2021 A low pressure system over western Kentucky will approach the region today with increasing moisture and the opportunity for showers and a few thunderstorms.
A cold front approaching from the northwest will slowly move closer, allowing for the region to remain in the warm, moist airmass that has persisted for the last several days. As the high aloft shifts a bit more south, we could see an increasing coverage trend in convection the next few afternoons.
Upper level trof moving over the region early today will depart to our northeast. Scattered showers (possible thunder) will depart with the trof, resulting in a lull in convection later this morning through early afternoon. Other solutions show development (initiation) farther south toward the Ohio River this evening, with a more organized area of convection, possibly severe with damaging winds moving ENE from the southern Plains across the Ozarks toward the Lower Ohio Valley (our CWA) overnight.
Therefore will not highlight near critical wording in the fire weather forecast, and will see if later model runs maintain the lower winds.
Showers will stick around through this afternoon and evening but mainly across the western zones as northwest flow sets up behind the departing trough.
At 1 pm, a cold front was located near a Jay, Oklahoma to Chandler, Oklahoma line. A warm front had surged north to around Interstate 40. Rapid thunderstorm development is expected later this afternoon and evening as the cap weakens in the vicinity of the the cold front as it sags further to the south and east. Severe thunderstorms are expected to line up all along the cold front/dry line and spread to east as the evening wears on with damaging winds and large hail becoming the main concern. Much cooler temperatures are forecast for Tuesday in the wake of the departing cold front.
227 PM EDT Mon May 3 2021 A low pressure system across the Ohio Valley and associated warm front stretching from West Virginia and Virginia will lift north into New England tonight. An approaching cold front on Tuesday will lead to additional showers and thunderstorms over the region.
Cold front/outflow from last night convective complex has pushed the main synoptic front well into srn OK at this time, with the last remnants of the front in SE KS slowly pushing into SW MO. Both the GFS/ECMWF are now suggesting that Fri afternoon may end up being an active severe weather day across the high plains, possibly even as far east as western areas of the forecast area. The ECMWF solution would suggest a wetter end of the weekend, while the GFS looks drier and cooler. We are still expecting another round of showers and storms and a period of MVFR in low cigs as a mid/upper trough moves across the area tonight and into the early morning hours on Tue before drier and more stable air arrives in the wake of the system.
/issued 735 AM EDT Mon May 3 2021/ Upper level ridging centered over the Bahamas sprawls across FL and much of the Gulf of Mexico though mid week with warm and generally dry/stable conditions. At the surface Atlantic high pressure broadly reaches over the state during the next 2/3 days with southeast and south winds that shift in the afternoons to southwest and west. For today expect sunny to mostly sunny skies as temperatures currently in the lower to mid 70s increase. The afternoon highs will reach the lower to mid 90s with heat indices of 97 to 104. Atlantic high pressure broadly ridges over the eastern Gulf of Mexico through mid week with a tightening gradient in the afternoons. A cold front pushes into the eastern Gulf toward the end of the week with a chance of showers and thunderstorms.
439 PM EDT Mon May 3 2021 Periodic shower and thunderstorm chances are expected through the first half of the week with a series of crossing low pressure areas. Otherwise, showers and a few thunderstorms can be expected this evening as the mid/upper level trough axis completes passage.
137 PM EDT Mon May 3 2021 Aviation - Low pressure moves along cold front bringing rain and thunder chances into Tuesday - Upper troughing and cooler than normal temps after Tuesday with frost/freeze potential - Low pressure moves along cold front bringing rain and thunder chances into Tuesday Showers are expected to continue today along a warm/stationary front aligned across our northern forecast area, while the rain associated with a southern stream low impinges on the southern zones.
Previous Discussion: Synoptic Setup: A trough currently jogs south from Saskatchewan through eastern Montana and down into the Four Corners. In response a ridge has developed off the coast of California and stretches north over the Pacific Northwest and into British Columbia. Today and tonight: Cooler high pressures at the surface has worked its way in behind the exiting front and will lead to partly cloudy to clear conditions during the day.
242 PM CDT Mon May 3 2021 Winds will diminish through the afternoon and evening as the pressure gradient relaxes under building high pressure at the sfc. Clear skies under the high tonight with cold air advection and lower heights under a persistent trough will all lead to much colder than normal lows. The clouds will keep temperatures warm enough so any precip from the low stays rain or a brief mix of rain and snow.
Additional showers and storms are expected for Tuesday into Tuesday evening ahead of an advancing cold front.
Tuesday will be warmer and drier with slight afternoon breezes.
Central California continues its transition toward a ridge pattern today as skies cleared out and winds diminish. As the the jet max shifts eastward a ridge will become the dominate feature over the West for the next few days. Near record values are possible, but without a persistent ridge, the length of time is not there for the reaching of records at the moment.
848 PM CDT Mon May 3 2021 Summary: A few showers this evening with a passing cold front. Mainly dry and relatively cooler weather is expected for the rest of the week with some light rain or mixed precipitation chances into the weekend. A cold front is passing through the region this afternoon and is bringing some light rain mainly to the Arrowhead but extending into parts of northwest Wisconsin.
Otherwise another warm night on tap as temperatures are about a degree warmer than this time yesterday. High pressure remains anchored near Bermuda with a ridge axis extending across the Bahamas and south central Florida. Thereafter, winds will gradually decrease as the high to our east pushes further east and a low pressure system moving across the Central Plains lifts northeast into the Great Lakes Region. Despite the high pressure pushing further east, the ridge axis will extend back across the Florida Peninsula and reside just to our north during the short term. Meanwhile, deep layer ridging will hold fast across the southeast U. High pressure centered near Bermuda will gradually shift east with a ridge axis extending just to our north across southern Florida.
Cold front/outflow from last night convective complex has pushed the main synoptic front well into srn OK at this time, with the last remnants of the front in SE KS slowly pushing into SW MO. Both the GFS/ECMWF are now suggesting that Fri afternoon may end up being an active severe weather day across the high plains, possibly even as far east as western areas of the forecast area. The ECMWF solution would suggest a wetter end of the weekend, while the GFS looks drier and cooler.
Weak upper level ridging builds into the area, generally favoring a mild and dry day. Having said that, moisture advects inland from The Pacific Ocean, ahead of the next weather producer, and spills over the weak ridge. A lingering cooler air mass keeps highs in the upper 50s to mid 60s range across central and southwest Montana.
Good clearing overnight, lighter winds, and Tds already in the the low to mid 20s we should be in line for temperatures falling well below freezing with lower 20s (maybe even teens) possible at colder locations by sunrise Tuesday. Therefore will not highlight near critical wording in the fire weather forecast, and will see if later model runs maintain the lower winds.
A broad upper level trough sits over the eastern half of the Northern Plains early this afternoon. Thankfully, the lowest humidity values (west) this afternoon are not expected to fully overlap with the strongest winds (south central and east). Slightly warmer temperatures and weaker winds are expected, with highs ranging from the mid 50s northeast to mid 60s southwest.
458 PM MDT Mon May 3 2021 Visible satellite imagery this afternoon still showing overcast skies from a trough axis sitting in Utah. Cloudiness will begin to clear as the trough pushes east this evening/tonight. This time of year makes precipitation-type forecasting very difficult because of temperatures being right on the line between freezing and not freezing. High-amplitude upper-level ridging will promote a warm & generally dry end to the work week across the region.