Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
The snow will be moving out of the forecast area around or after sunrise on Tuesday with decreasing clouds during the day as the axis of the upper trough moves through the region. High temperatures will range from the lower 40s in the southwest to the lower 50s over central Kansas, where more sunshine will be noted during the day. Ahead of this system, westerly flow aloft over the central High Plains will allow warmer air to spread back east through Kansas and Oklahoma.
Farther south, warm temperatures will continue today under mostly sunny skies, with highs expected to top out in the low to mid 90s away from the coast for areas south of Levy and Citrus counties. The front will start to sag south again on Wednesday, with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms expected from around Interstate 4 north and slightly cooler temperatures expected across the area.
However, additional areas of sct cu have developed over SW AR/extreme NW LA/NE TX, in VC of an inverted H850 trough that extends from N TX into SW/SCntrl AR. Meanwhile, the evening water vapor imagery indicates a longwave trough that is diving SE through the Great Basin/Cntrl Rockies this evening, with the attendant trough axis eventually rounding through the Srn Plains Tuesday afternoon and evening. Weak elevated forcing along along theta-e ridging across the TX Panhandle/Wrn and Cntrl OK has ahead of the trough has yielded areas of elevated light -RA/-SN over these areas, although much of this is not reaching the ground per the latest obs.
Otherwise, tonights low are projected to fall under the freezing mark with cold upper troughing aloft.
Tuesday - cool and dry northeasterly flow develops as a backdoor cold front moves in. The main impacts of these cooler temperatures will be felt along and north of the Mogollon Rim where highs will be 10-20 degrees below average for mid April. Wednesday - sunny and much warmer as the flow switches back to westerly.
Not much change to the ongoing highly amplified upper pattern as we roll into Tuesday, with broad upper troughing fully entrenched across the region and not going anywhere today.
Latest water vapor imagery and RAP 500mb analysis shows a broad large-scale trough over much of the CONUS with weak trough axis across the Dakotas. At the surface, a broad area of high pressure remains over the area.
With mostly clear skies tonight, our lows should be around 20 to 28 degrees with pockets of cooler temps possible where heavier snow fell.
Another area of high pressure will extend down across the Wabash River Valley Wednesday night.
with fairly low freezing levels. By Wednesday night, temperatures are expected to drop into the low to mid 30s across this region under calm winds, which could certainly pose a threat for frost development.
with dew points near freezing. a low pressure system will track along an old frontal boundary across north FL this afternoon and overnight.
323 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2020 Today and Tonight: Continued cooler than normal and dry through the period. /22/ Wednesday through Tuesday: The forecast period starts off tomorrow with a rather large mean longwave trough draped across the entire CONUS. At the surface, a sprawling area of high pressure will span across the heart of the country and into the Gulf Coast states. Sunny and seasonably cool weather is expected tomorrow with afternoon highs in the low to upper 60s following a chilly start to the day.
Wednesday should be a bit warmer, and mainly dry. Cold air aloft remains in place across the Upper Midwest, with weak areas of positive vorticity rotating around a parent longwave trough that is fixed over Canada. These popcorn snow showers should wane around sunset, and then have the forecast dry on Wednesday as we are a bit warmer aloft, and experience some H500 height rises.
A deep, full-latitude trough will remain centered near the Great Lakes region the next few days, then shift east. Split flow will gradually redevelop over western and central North America during the latter half of the period, with northern stream ridging and southern stream troughing near the West Coast. and Wednesday Weak disturbances rotating through the base of the deep large scale trough across the area will produce scattered snow showers at times.
The primary band has shifted south overnight and so have shifted the highest POPs a little to the south as well, however there is increasing activity across the Texas panhandle which will move into western Oklahoma this morning. But that will give us another night of good radiational cooling and temperatures are expected to fall to near or below freezing again tonight into Wednesday morning across a broader area than this morning.
A deep upper trough will dominate the weather today. While temps will initially be borderline for snow, enough evaporative cooling will occur in the dry sub-cloud layer to quickly wet-bulb readings down to near freezing. Thanks to overnight lows at or below freezing, think a light accumulation of snow on the order of 1 inch or less will be likely on grassy surfaces by dawn. Another piece of energy dropping out of western Canada will reinforce the prevailing upper trough over the Midwest/Great Lakes for the end of the week.
A broad upper trough will remain parked over the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes. Winds will die down this evening and clear skies will allow us to cool into the lower to mid 20s once again. The pressure gradient will relax over the region as high pressure settles over the center of the country. The upper trough will continue to sit overhead which will allow for scattered diurnal cumulus clouds. High temperatures will be a notch warmer, right around 40.
A weak cold front continues through the area today, bringing breezy northerly winds. A reinforcing high pressure will follow behind the cold front keeping temperatures cool today. Another surge of high pressure will build in tonight increasing offshore flow again, especially over the waters.
The next cold front will begin to draw the offshore moisture back inland by the end of the week with some sh/ts off and on over the weekend. Ceilings around 1000 feet are expected with this low stratus deck.
Cooler with a chance of mountain showers by the weekend.
Temperatures are generally in the low to mid 40s across the area.
812 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2020 A weak front will remain nearly stationary over our region through early Wednesday as a weak upper trough approaches, providing a chance of showers, with an isolated thunderstorm possible late today into early tonight. Expect fair and cooler conditions Wednesday afternoon.
Went with cooler CONSshort highs today, and NBM temps for tonight.
1009 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2020 A cold front will slide well offshore this morning.
610 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2020 Northwest flow aloft will continue across our region today between an upper trough along the east coast and a ridge along the west coast.
446 AM MDT Tue Apr 14 2020 Anonymously deep/cold upper level trough will continue to bring cold, unsettled, and breezy conds to the region the next few days. Main upper trough and associated cold pool is beginning to shift east with some WAA ongoing. The best chance for snow showers will again be over the higher terrain of NE WY and the Black Hills with isolated activity across other locations. Current indications are for up to an inch or so on the NE WY plains tonight into Wed morning, while a few inches will be possible in the higher elevations of the Black Hills today through Wednesday.
/22/ Today and Tonight: Continued cooler than normal and dry through the period. /22/ Wednesday through Tuesday: The forecast period starts off tomorrow with a rather large mean longwave trough draped across the entire CONUS. At the surface, a sprawling area of high pressure will span across the heart of the country and into the Gulf Coast states. Sunny and seasonably cool weather is expected tomorrow with afternoon highs in the low to upper 60s following a chilly start to the day.
401 AM MDT Tue Apr 14 2020 There are still a few flurries over Lincoln county and over the higher mountains. It's not looking like things will come together for strong wave amplification, but we could see the 40 mph ridgetop gusts spill down into the higher foothills later tonight as we do get a little mid level inversion. Forecast temperatures look good, a little below guidance today for melting snow and then about 10 degrees warmer tonight. This trough is accompanied by a 90-100kt upper level jet that will drop into northern CO by 00z, and it remains anchored across northern CO overnight.
Low level westerly flow will allow for warmer temperatures, but highs will be held down by clouds and remain well below normal.
A light freeze is expected across much of the area tonight, except the official observation site at Tulsa should stay warmer due to a light south to southwest wind.
607 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2020 A broad longwave trough remains situated over the Great Lakes over the next 36 hours, with our region remaining in a northwesterly flow regime.
635 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2020 A cold front will slide well offshore this morning.
406 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2020 Widespread northwesterly flow aloft this morning as a elongated, upper trough stretches over the central and western CONUS. These clouds have impacted temps this morning which are hovering near or just above freezing. With a handful of hours to go until sunrise, still think most of the area will hit the freezing mark so no changes are planned with the Freeze Warning. High clouds are once again likely as another vort max translates through Nebraska late tonight so confidence is not as high for freezing temps Wednesday morning. The upper northwest flow pattern becomes more active after mid week as confidence is increasing in a deepening upper trough interacting with mid level forcing along a cold front positioned across northern KS by Wednesday evening.
SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday): The broad 500 mb troffing prevailing over the lower 48 states today will push through another secondary push of cooler Canadian air across the RGV for Tues and Tues Night.
Warmer temperatures will continue inland on Wednesday, but temperatures should begin to cool in coastal areas.
609 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2020 Strong low pressure will remain across Northwest Quebec province through tonight.
410 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2020 Northwest flow aloft will continue across our region today between an upper trough along the east coast and a ridge along the west coast.
The highest confidence in persistent cloud cover today is across the Big Country.
/issued 408 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2020/ SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday): The broad 500 mb troffing prevailing over the lower 48 states today will push through another secondary push of cooler Canadian air across the RGV for Tues and Tues Night.
Widespread northwesterly flow aloft this morning as a elongated, upper trough stretches over the central and western CONUS. These clouds have impacted temps this morning which are hovering near or just above freezing. With a handful of hours to go until sunrise, still think most of the area will hit the freezing mark so no changes are planned with the Freeze Warning. High clouds are once again likely as another vort max translates through Nebraska late tonight so confidence is not as high for freezing temps Wednesday morning. The upper northwest flow pattern becomes more active after mid week as confidence is increasing in a deepening upper trough interacting with mid level forcing along a cold front positioned across northern KS by Wednesday evening.
South of this front, we continue to be under the influence of the Atlantic ridge that extends over South Florida and the Keys. Ridge axis will remain in place for today with southeast to south winds continuing. This ridge axis will settle further south through Wednesday afternoon.
High temperatures today will be a few degrees below normal followed by warmer daytime temperatures later this week.
412 AM PDT Tue Apr 14 2020 Dry weather and warmer temperatures through mid week. Cooler by the weekend with a chance of showers mainly over the mountains. While a ridge along the coast starts building inland.
A cold front stalling to the north of our area will continue to bring chances of rain to our northern counties through today. Forecast remains on track with highs likely reaching the low to mid 90s today, which combined with the very moist airmass over the are will result near heat advisory level conditions. /issued 335 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2020/ The front will start to sag south again on Wednesday, with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms expected from around Interstate 4 north and slightly cooler temperatures expected across the area.
944 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2020 High pressure to the NE of the region is helping to promote a mostly clear morning across the Tennessee Valley region. As the sheared wave/clouds depart to the east tonight, the pressure gradient slowly relaxes as a ridge shifts into KY/TN and northwest AL into northern MS. After another cool but sunny day Wednesday, the ridge shifts east over TN and AL and flow decreases more substantially.
Another very dry day on tap as a thermal trough along the coast continues offshore flow over the region west of the Cascades into the morning. The thermal trough at the coast will move inland today, making today the warmest day of this stretch inland and bringing brief onshore flow to the south coast in he afternoon, keeping the temperatures from reaching into the 80s, but the Chetco effect will keep the south coast warm, and slightly warmer than the inland west side valleys today with the warm start. The thermal trough deepens again along the southern coast by Wednesday morning, but not before onshore flow increases and spreads across the east side, bringing a marine push that spills over the Cascades. This increased moisture and cloud cover will bring warmer overnight lows.
552 AM MDT Tue Apr 14 2020 The anomalous ridging along each coast of NOAM is not going to relax during the short term period. Great Lakes will be lifting into the high latitudes of E. We will be staying below normal however with a large trough remaining anchored over the continent outside of Alaska. There is another wave topping the amplified EPac ridge that will be dropping into the mid latitudes tomorrow and bring another decent precipitation event to portions of our CWA. Water vapor imagery suggests a subtropical moisture source wrapping into the ridge this morning. The arrival of the next cold trough to the N. Temperatures remain below normal and another cold night is expected over the lower Gunny and Colorado River Valleys.
609 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2020 The main concerns in the short term will be the continued chances for freezing temperatures as well as the chances for frozen precipitation. Wednesday night a warm front will begin to lift across the CWA.
Dry and warmer weather is expected to prevail through mid week. An upper trough may generate isolated showers over the mountains toward the end of the week.
Northerly winds between 10 and 15 knots will also prevail during the period as high pressure will continue to build in.
430 AM MDT Tue Apr 14 2020 The anomalous ridging along each coast of NOAM is not going to relax during the short term period. Great Lakes will be lifting into the high latitudes of E. We will be staying below normal however with a large trough remaining anchored over the continent outside of Alaska. There is another wave topping the amplified EPac ridge that will be dropping into the mid latitudes tomorrow and bring another decent precipitation event to portions of our CWA. Water vapor imagery suggests a subtropical moisture source wrapping into the ridge this morning. The arrival of the next cold trough to the N. Temperatures remain below normal and another cold night is expected over the lower Gunny and Colorado River Valleys.
534 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2020 Strong low pressure will remain across Northwest Quebec province through tonight.
1005 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2020 A cold front will slide well offshore this morning.
1226 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2020 A broad longwave trough remains situated over the Great Lakes over the next 36 hours, with our region remaining in a northwesterly flow regime.
Another factor to keep with the cooler temperatures is that our dew points are in the teens. With light wind, and not a complete cloud cover we tend to have cooler lows. With the past couple of nights a little colder than forecast, have kept the cooler temperatures and hope that the clouds help to keep the temperatures from falling too much. Do not expect much because the lower layer is dry and will be hard to get much through that.
310 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2020 The band of light precipitation that moved across central Kentucky this afternoon will push quickly to the east early this evening, followed by clearing skies overnight under high pressure ridging from Texas to Pennsylvania. Tomorrow clouds will increase, especially over southern Indiana and north central Kentucky, as a weak cold front approaches from the northwest. Wednesday night, a weak cold front drops south through central Kentucky from the Ohio River. Weak northerly winds behind the front will help push temperatures to near and even below freezing under partly clear skies and a calm wind. This is expected to cause freezing issues for plants in southern Indiana and the Bluegrass region of Kentucky.
The southwest received around 2 to 4 inches of snow overnight and the snowpack will keep it cooler than the northeast FA where only a dusting to a half an inch was received. Winds will continue to be light and sometimes variable at the surface today from high pressure.
241 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2020 Large scale upper trough stretches across the U. Window for freezing temperatures will be limited across western zones as southerly winds return late tonight, however its warranted given the atypically cool airmass in place during the growing season.
341 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2020 A broad upper level trough will continue to provide the North Country with mainly dry conditions and below normal temperatures through the remainder of the week.
With sfc temperatures in the lower 40s and a relatively warm ground accumulations should be minimal outside of the highest elevations of eastern Tucker county where a couple inches will be possible over the course of the event. Overnight lows will drop below freezing with cold upper troughing aloft and a Freeze Warning will be in effect overnight for those counties along and south of I 70 where the growing season has been advised to be underway.
1131 AM MDT Tue Apr 14 2020 Anonymously deep/cold upper level trough will continue to bring cold, unsettled, and breezy conds to the region the next few days. Main upper trough and associated cold pool is beginning to shift east with some WAA ongoing. The best chance for snow showers will again be over the higher terrain of NE WY and the Black Hills with isolated activity across other locations. Current indications are for up to an inch or so on the NE WY plains tonight into Wed morning, while a few inches will be possible in the higher elevations of the Black Hills today through Wednesday.
227 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2020 A cool, dry air mass remains in place across the region late this afternoon, with breezy NNE winds helping to reinforce this underneath the influence of high pressure to the north of the area. Thus, expect temperatures to drop into the low to mid 30s across most of the Tennessee Valley region. Locations across North Alabama should stay at or above freezing, and just have a Frost Advisory there between 06-13z. Temperatures on Wednesday night will be a few degrees warmer (mid to upper 30s).
High pressure to the NE of the region is helping to promote a mostly clear morning across the Tennessee Valley region. As the sheared wave/clouds depart to the east tonight, the pressure gradient slowly relaxes as a ridge shifts into KY/TN and northwest AL into northern MS. After another cool but sunny day Wednesday, the ridge shifts east over TN and AL and flow decreases more substantially.
Upper troughing remains over the northern Plains with -6 to -10C 850 mb. Wednesday will be a bit warmer with less cloud cover expected during peak daytime heating.
815 AM PDT Tue Apr 14 2020 Clouds will continue to increase today in advance of a weak disturbance that will bring some showers mainly to the Wallowas and Blues with snow confined to the highest elevations tonight.
Afternoon highs have already climbed into the low to mid 90s with heat indices getting into the triple digits and near advisory levels.
152 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2020 A broad upper trough extended from a low in NE Canada down across the Great Lakes southwestward to CA.
154 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2020 A weak front south of the area will begin moving northward as a warm front tonight as a weak upper trough approaches, providing the possibility of isolated showers. Expect fair and cooler conditions Wednesday afternoon.
Tonight should be the coldest night of the next 7 days with temperatures dipping into the low to middle 30s area wide. After a cold start, afternoon highs should climb into the low 60s.
The 19Z MSAS surface analysis showed one trough of low pressure stretched from central Lake Superior southwest through central WI. A second trough was located over western Lake Superior southwest through central MN. Look for min temperatures to range from 5 to 10 above zero north-central WI, to the lower 20s east-central WI. Northeast WI to remain under the influence of a broad upper trough parked over the northeast CONUS. Max temperatures to range from the lower to middle 30s north-central, to the upper 30s eastern WI. Although the beefy ridge off the west coast will gradually break down, flattened troughing will remain present over the western Great Lakes through the forecast period.
this is a additional surge of drier and cooler air that will mov in later today. the low cloud deck conts to erode across south central Louisiana this am although clds cont to linger in the coastal waters. Northerly winds between 10 and 15 knots will also prevail during the period as high pressure will continue to build in.
308 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2020 Ridge axis extends across the Atlantic westward across the Sunshine State and into the eastern Gulf of Mexico.
206 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2020 A weak mid level trough has brought a few rain showers and a few snow flurries to the northwestern third of the mid state this afternoon. Furthermore, sfc ridging expected to extend our way from the west by 12z.
This will set the stage for a pretty chilly night, with lows in the low to mid 20s.
This slow moving high will remain in control the Ozarks weather through tonight with temperatures once again falling into the lowers 30s. This will combine with generally light winds to produce multiple hours of temperatures at or below the freezing mark across far southern and south central Missouri.
Surface temperatures will be warm, into the low 40s for most places by the afternoon, however, dew points will be in the 20s and very cold air will exist aloft. However, the dry air in the low levels will likely limit snow shower coverage to isolated to scattered.
Lows tonight expected to quite cool, especially over the interior, ranging from the low to mid 40s over interior southeast MS and southwest AL (north of Highway 84), with upper 40s elsewhere down toward the coast. Along the immediate coast, look for min temps in the low to mid 50s. Highs ranging from the mid to upper 60s over the interior counties of southeast MS and southwest AL, to the lower 70s southern counties and coastal areas. Northerly winds will increase to 10-15 knots with some gusts around 20 knots by this evening (especially down near the coast) and continue through late tonight as a reinforcing ridge of high pressure builds into the region.