Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Warmer and drier for late week, but thunderstorm chances will remain across the north. Cooler temperatures still remain but a warming trend is starting so expect highs in the mid 80s to low 90s with nighttime lows dipping down into the 50s to low 60s.
Mean layer ridge is over central FL area with prevailing flow from the southwest at about 10-15 kt. Max temps today mainly in the lower 90s and heat indices should top out around 105 before convection develops. Narrow ridge axis will reside over FL. remaining near normal with daytime highs in the lower 90s inland. A weak frontal boundary will push into southeast GA later today and weak trough will develop over inland areas. Front and trough will dip a little southward on Wed likely causing a brief east to northeast flow over southeast GA waters.
319 AM CDT Tue Aug 8 2017 High pressure was centered over the upper Midwest early this morning.
One common factor in the fcst wl cont to be cooler than normal temps thru the PD.
High pressure over the Western Atlantic waters will continue to remain nearly stationary today into Wednesday allowing for a brisk southeasterly wind flow over South Florida. The high will then weaken late this week allowing for a mid to upper trough of low pressure near San Juan to move west northwest and through South Florida. The mid to upper level low will continue to move west northwest into the Gulf of Mexico this weekend allowing for the high to build back into the Florida Peninsula from the Atlantic waters. Therefore, the High Risk of Rip Currents will continue for the east coast beaches of South Florida for today.
The remains under northwesterly flow in the upper levels, set up between weak ridging nosing north through the desert SW and a trough swinging through the Great Lakes/Midwest. At the surface, high pressure is centered over the NE/IA/SD/MN border area, resulting in light/variable to calm winds across the area. Temps this morning are on the cool side, with 3 am obs ranging from the lower/mid 50s to right near 60 degrees. The area of high pressure at the surface is expected to gradually slide east into the midwest through the short term, and with a trough of low pressure developing over the High Plains, more southerly winds are expected to develop across the region.
High pressure then leads to drier weather Tuesday and Wednesday. Overnight lows will be in the 50s in the mountains to the lower 60s in the lowlands. This will eventually scour out the low level moisture during the day on Tuesday.
337 AM CDT Tue Aug 8 2017 Two 950mb troughs continue to linger over the Louisiana/Mississippi region and some form of this will remain the case through much of the week. No real changes can be seen to the wet pattern as the troughiness remains through the week.
Unsettled conditions favored today as the area of low pressure off the Pacific coast continues to push moisture over the area.
352 AM CDT Tue Aug 8 2017 Easterly upslope flow is producing areas of light showers/drizzle mostly across the Rolling Plains as a weak upper trough axis works its way southeast over a very moist airmass.
With surface heating today and slightly cooler temps aloft there will likely be some cumulus clouds this afternoon, but they will be of the fair weather and scattered variety. Still expect temps to reach the low 80s inland, and near 80 even at the lake shore before the onshore flow.
400 AM CDT Tue Aug 8 2017 Early this morning high pressure was centered near Sioux City, IA and a weak cool front was positioned from near Hudson Bay across northwest Ontario and into southern Manitoba and southern Saskatchewan. Nudged temperatures across our southern forecast area a little warmer overnight with minimum values in the upper 50s south to the low 50s northeast. Temperatures will trend slightly cooler with highs from the upper 60s northeast to the upper 70s over northwest Wisconsin.
345 AM EDT Tue Aug 8 2017 High pressure will build southeast into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley today, returning dry conditions back to the area. The high will extend across the region tonight into Wednesday.
402 AM CDT Tue Aug 8 2017 Cooler than normal temperatures with above normal rain chances will continue today as once again an anomalously moist airmass, a nearly stationary boundary and daytime heating combine to produce widespread convection. Local radars had light to moderate showers tracking east across the Highway 82 corridor with and area of heavier showers poised to move across our northeast Louisiana Parishes. Low temperatures tonight will bottom out again in the lower 70s which is normal.
504 AM EDT Tue Aug 8 2017 Low pressure will track south of the Gulf of Maine today. A ridge of high pressure builds tonight.
620 AM EDT Tue Aug 8 2017 The upper Great Lakes stays in broad northwest flow in an upper level trough through this forecast period. The best chance for widespread precip will by Thu into early Fri as a low pressure system moves south of the area.
A cold front was pushing into north central Montana this hour. Today will be warmer in a weakly pre-frontal environment. The chance of precipitation Wednesday will be confined to the higher terrain and upslope locations of the foothills. The end of the work week will see conditions slowly warm across the forecast area as a stubborn ridge of high pressure over the Pacific northwest translates east into Montana by the weekend.
High pressure centered over the Middle MO River Valley will extend ewd from IA to the Mid Atlantic States for later today and tonight. Light winds will become southerly as high pressure shifts east of the area.
312 AM CDT Tue Aug 8 2017 Unseasonably mild weather on tap today behind cold front that has pushed south of the Red River.
/22/ Cooler than normal temperatures with above normal rain chances will continue today as once again an anomalously moist airmass, a nearly stationary boundary and daytime heating combine to produce widespread convection. Local radars had light to moderate showers tracking east across the Highway 82 corridor with and area of heavier showers poised to move across our northeast Louisiana Parishes. Low temperatures tonight will bottom out again in the lower 70s which is normal.
The closed low off NW California will continue to be the main driver today. There is not a lot of change for Wednesday as the main low pressure continues to spin off NW California. We have raised POPS and could conceivably go to likely across the higher terrain.
Little change thru mid-week as upper level low lingers near the NorCal coast. Moisture wrapping around the low will continue the daily chances for afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms, mainly across the mountains.
An upper-level composite analysis reveals a deep layer mean anticyclone centered over the western North Atlantic, with a ridge extending westward over the Florida Peninsula and eastern Gulf of Mexico. The system appears to be associated with a complex pattern in the lower and middle troposphere involving at least two trough lines and associated convergence and cyclonic vorticity. Currently, air temperatures in most Keys island communities are holding in the lower to mid 80s, with dewpoint temperatures in the mid to upper 70s.
314 AM EDT Tue Aug 8 2017 A cold front will move slowly southeast across the region today.
High pressure across the region this afternoon will slowly propagate east across the Upper Mississippi Valley through Tuesday. The lowest precipitation chances will be southwest. There will be surface convergence along a low pressure trough that by 09/0000Z will be on the North Dakota and Montana border, pushing east.
Elsewhere, broad upper level ridging dominates from the Desert southwest and across the Gulf of Mexico. This will generally limit afternoon thunderstorm coverage, except across northern Florida, near a weak cold front. Highs will once again rise into the low to mid 90s as cloud cover will be sparse through peak heating.
306 AM MDT Tue Aug 8 2017 Current surface analysis shows high pressure now centered southeast of the region, with an area of low pressure over southeast Alberta. Northwesterly flow will continue to keep the area cooler than average through the rest of the week, with near daily chances for showers and thunderstorms. The upper level wave to the northwest of the region and an associated cold front will slide southeast across the region late tonight and Wednesday. The cold front will pass through most of the CWA during the morning and across south central SD during the afternoon hours, with breezy northwest winds developing behind it.
A broad trough will brush by the tri-state region to the north, flattening the ridge currently in place and increasing moisture advection into the region once again. This coupled with forcing from the sea-breeze and upper trough will yield higher chances for showers and thunderstorms Tuesday and Wednesday. Afternoon highs will reach the upper 80s to low 90s, with overnight lows in the low to mid 70s.
High pressure directly overhead this afternoon will sink to our southeast overnight, and across IA by daybreak Tuesday. Upper troughing will dominate the pattern in the extended. Max temps will remain cooler than average for early to mid August with highs topping out in the 70s to lower 80s most days.
Temperatures today should feel slightly cooler with this incoming moisture.
345 AM CDT Tue Aug 8 2017 Latest sfc analysis shows the front well to the S-SW, generally backed up against the higher terrain. This feature will also be the primary focus for further convective development today, before tapering off as the upper ridge begins building back into West Texas and Southeast New Mexico from the west.
402 AM EDT Tue Aug 8 2017 The upper Great Lakes stays in broad northwest flow in an upper level trough through this forecast period. The best chance for widespread precip will by Thu into early Fri as a low pressure system moves south of the area.
556 AM EDT Tue Aug 8 2017 Low pressure will track south of the Gulf of Maine today. A ridge of high pressure builds tonight.
641 AM EDT Tue Aug 8 2017 A cold front will slip south into the area today and stall. Upper/mid level trough over the eastern CONUS will shift toward the coast today. A cold front will move into the area from the Upstate today and stall east this evening. High temperatures are forecast several degrees below normal, in the lower to middle 80s.
A cold front will swing across the area through the day, though have little impact on sensible weather, other than enhanced mixing in a northwesterly flow behind the front. The thermal ridge slides over the region during the day with 850 mb temps just either side of 25 C, and looking at highs in the 90s, closing in on 100 through the MO River corridor.
250 PM CDT Thu Jul 6 2017 An upper high over the Great Basin region and central Rockies through Friday and Friday night will allow for a dry northeast to easterly upper flow across the Panhandles.
Upper ridge continuing to rotate moisture into the area.
224 PM MDT Thu Jul 6 2017 Current surface map shows weak cold front backing into eastern Wyoming and northern Nebraska. Secondary trof/dry line dropping into northwest South Dakota.
222 PM EDT Thu Jul 6 2017 An upper level trough of low pressure over the Mid-Mississippi Valley will continue to eject upper level disturbances across the forecast area tonight through Friday with an opportunity for showers and thunderstorms.
SHORT TERM (Tonight through Friday night): 700mb inverted trough across the Bay of Campeche will move westward into eastern Mexico tonight into Friday. Isolated to scattered convection will develop across the offshore waters of the lower Texas coast tonight. The increase in cloud cover and rain chances Friday will provide slightly cooler (not as hot) temperatures Fri afternoon.
A cold front will push into the mid-South today while high pressure continues to dominate across the CWA. Highs will climb into the mid 90s today with a few places reaching the high 90s. Heat indices will be in the low to mid 100s.
1206 PM CDT Thu Jul 6 2017 Chances for isolated to widely scattered SHRA/TSRA will remain in the forecast through this afternoon/evening as an upper level trough moves slowly SE over the state. Much of this mornings convection was over southern AR, associated with the upper low pressure trough as it moves through the region. Tonight, the chance of convection gradually moves southeast, as the upper low pressure trough moves farther to the east, and the upper high pressure begins to build into the region from the west. Temperatures will start below normal then we will see a warming trend as the upper high pressure ridge builds into the region.
202 PM EDT Thu Jul 6 2017 Low pressure moving through Virginia tonight will trigger a few showers and thunderstorms, mainly over northeast Pennsylvania. On Friday, a cold front moving into the northeast will trigger another round of showers and thunderstorms over much of the area into Friday night. Expect storms to break out in the afternoon Friday along a pre- frontal trof with additional showers and an isolated storm possible in the evening as the front comes through.
Upper trough should continue pulling eastward this evening, with its axis expected to be into eastern KY by midnight tonight. 5-2 inch range, and, with temperatures possibly rising into the low 90s, we should have plenty of instability ahead of the front for additional storms to develop. High pressure will build right over the region for the weekend.
359 PM EDT Thu Jul 6 2017 A wave of low pressure develops southwest of the region tonight, moving south of Long Island Friday and near Cape Cod Friday night. A cold front approaches from the west Friday night.
The storms will diminish from northwest to southeast as the trough axis shifts to our east overnight. A cold front will then push southeast across the area during the evening. A cold front will be dropping southward at the start of the period, bringing some showers and perhaps an isolated thunderstorm to the area Friday evening.
323 PM EDT Thu Jul 6 2017 A cold front over Wisconsin will move southeast across the area Friday afternoon into Friday night.
341 PM CDT Thu Jul 6 2017 Water vapor imagery and upper-level data this afternoon show a stout upper-level ridge centered over the 4-corners area, bulging eastward into northwest Texas. Temperatures warm a couple degrees Friday as the ground slowly dries out, while subsidence from the upper ridge should keep the area precip.
250 PM CDT Thu Jul 6 2017 Amplifying western upper ridge will maintain nw flow aloft across the region through the short term.
148 PM PDT Thu Jul 6 2017 Temperatures will heat up through the weekend as a ridge of high pressure strengthens. High pressure aloft will continue to be centered near Utah along with well above-average temperatures through the weekend.
239 PM EDT Thu Jul 6 2017 Low pressure developing over the Ohio Valley will track south of Pennsylvania late today and tonight.
Elsewhere, the only real potential for isolated showers will be in the Bluegrass region, closest to the low pressure center. Upper trough should continue pulling eastward this evening, with its axis expected to be into eastern KY by midnight tonight. 5-2 inch range, and, with temperatures possibly rising into the low 90s, we should have plenty of instability ahead of the front for additional storms to develop. High pressure will build right over the region for the weekend.
High pressure ridging is bringing clear skies to much of the area, except for cumulus clouds building over the Sierra crest to around Lassen National Park. The high pressure ridge is building, with very warm temperatures. The weekend looks slightly cooler, as the ridge begins to shift eastward.
1223 PM PDT Thu Jul 6 2017 Hot high pressure will build over the region through Friday, bringing middle 90s to 100 degree temperatures. Forecast update sent to issue heat advisory for the lower portions of Grant County and along the Snake River Valley.
Temperatures will fall into the lower 60s towards sunrise. Cooler conditions and thunderstorm chances return on Friday.
Given the high instability expected this afternoon and some mid level dry air remaining, one or two storms may become strong to locally severe briefly, but nothing out of the ordinary is expected for this time of year.
Large scale models looks to be backing off on the idea of the up- per ridge building back over the region (from the west). /ISSUED 951 AM CDT Thu Jul 6 2017/ Expecting a region of high pressure currently centered over the northern Gulf of Mexico to continue building in from the east this afternoon, allowing our high temperatures to warm into the upper 80s to lower 90s near the coast and low to mid 90s further inland. Shower and thunderstorm development will also be possible in the northern most tier of counties in the forecast area, as the shear axis sandwiched between the two upper level areas of high pressure slides in from the northwest.
A short wave trough and dying frontal boundary will move into the area tonight. Weak short wave ridging behind this system along with some deep layer drying should help to limit convection for Friday, so will carry just slight chance PoPs north to chance south. Our forecast area will be between two systems to start the forecast period, with a frontal boundary pushing southeast of the area Friday night and another cold front approaching from the upper midwest.
Combined with dew points in the low 70s, we are having a very muggy day out there. Highs are likely to climb near 90 and dew points will remain in the low 70s.
Tried to lean toward the higher res models through the period, which showed less rain and later development tomorrow. If the high resolution models are right, may not see much rain and heat will be more of a concern.
/issued 304 AM CDT Thu Jul 6 2017/ The upper level ridge has been making its eastward expansion overnight, and IR satellite shows this nicely with clockwise flow centered over the Four Corners.
357 PM EDT Thu Jul 6 2017 High pressure moves offshore today and produces a southerly flow of air, which will introduce more humid air into northern New England this afternoon through tonight.
237 PM CDT Thu Jul 6 2017 Upper Low/trof encountering rich, high theta-e environ with PW's around 2", near peak end percentile of norm. As a result, tropical like showers/isolated storms, very efficient rain producers, may persist into early evening, before finally scouring out as Low/trof drifts across. A relative pause occurs then until energy in the Vortex drops a cold front down Friday pm/evening.
311 PM CDT Thu Jul 6 2017 Main challenge in the near term is timing a cold front and whether there will be enough forcing and moisture to get any precipitation from its passage. This front will bring in a bit cooler temperatures but the more noticeable difference will be the drier air advecting in throughout the day. While dewpoints may be in the mid to upper 60s during the morning hours, they should fall into the lower 60s across all but the southern tier of counties by the afternoon.
A mid and upper level trough axis will swing southeast across the Mid-Mississippi Valley today. As this happens, model cross- sections indicate increasing convergence in the lower portions of the atmosphere starting early this morning.
More likely a period of BKN ceilings will roll through with the mid level feature ahead of the cold front. The cold front will drop through the region around 18Z Friday offering another chance at showers and storms, but again chances are too low to include any precip for Friday. Series of upper level waves/disturbances coming down from Canada leading to lowering heights and longwave trough setting up East of the Mississippi over the Weekend. Strung out (SW-NE aligned) moisture over Wisconsin this morning to seep into southeast Michigan during the day, but the upper level disturbance coming out of North Dakota expected to track through/near the Straights, calling into question how much activity will extend south into southeast Michigan (see 6z RAP13) as the cold front begins to accelerate off to the southeast Tonight.
Strong stubborn upper ridge continues to be the main player with our weather. Friday, the ridge amplifies a bit to our west, so another sunny day is expected. Synoptic Setup: Friday night begins with hot high pressure over the western half of the CONUS and a ridge rising up from it through central Montana and into Alberta and the Northwest Territories. A large closed low sets over the Gulf of Alaska with its sphere of influence spreading into western Washington State and the main bulk of British Columbia.
303 PM CDT Thu Jul 6 2017 Upper ridge centers over the Desert Southwest this afternoon, placing much of the region under northerly to northwesterly flow aloft. Additional showers and thunderstorms are progged to form off the western high plains, rounding the upper ridge and dropping southward during the mid morning to late afternoon period.
1211 PM CDT Thu Jul 6 2017 A large upper level ridge extends across the entire western half of the US with our forecast area under northwesterly flow. Today is still looking hot and humid ahead of an approaching cold front. This should send heat indices into the lower 100s this afternoon. The above mentioned cold front will slowly drift south through the CWA throughout the day, landing south of the forecast area by 06z tonight.
1055 AM PDT Thu Jul 6 2017 Hot high pressure will build over the region through Friday, bringing middle 90s to 100 degree temperatures. Morning update: Main changes for this morning were to add some cloudiness for the next few hours across the lower Idaho Panhandle and bump up temperatures 1-2 degrees. Many locations are running 4-8 warmer than this time yesterday so adjusted temperatures up slightly from where they topped out yesterday.
259 PM CDT Thu Jul 6 2017 Relatively cooler temperatures and dry weather highlight the short term. Upper level ridge located over the western United States will begin to amplify as a short wave trough will quickly make its way southeast this evening. Temperatures will be relatively cooler late this afternoon and Friday afternoon when compared with the last few days.
A cold front late Friday will bring cooler and drier air for the weekend. High pressure will build in the wake of the cold front keeping the majority of the weekend dry.
Models show a little more moisture in the mid- levels compared to today so PoPs will be a bit higher with the highest rain chances along and east of I-75.
255 PM CDT Thu Jul 6 2017 18Z surface analysis has a cold front running from northeast Minnesota into South Dakota. Dew points ahead of the front were mainly in the 70s with 60s and cooler behind the front.
118 PM EDT Thu Jul 6 2017 Low pressure developing over the Ohio Valley will track south of Pennsylvania late today and tonight.
1127 AM MDT Thu Jul 6 2017 Main story today will be hotter temperatures as the upper high remains parked over the region. Temperatures across the southeast plains will climb to around 100 degrees along the lower Arkansas River valley. Afternoon heating will act on residual moisture within the ridge to produce another round of isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon. Subtle disturbances within the upper ridge may also aid in their development. Models are in fairly good agreement with convection pushing eastward into the northeast CO plains this evening as a weak wave makes its way around the northern periphery of the upper high. High pressure will dominate the region with showers and thunderstorms expected across the mountains.
High pressure ridge axis will drift back south across the central peninsula. Ridge axis continues to be positioned over Central Florida, maintaining southeasterly flow through the weekend.