Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
/ISSUED 248 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015/ VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA WITH RELATIVELY DRIER AIRMASS INDICATED THROUGH THE COLUMN VERSUS THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL SLOWLY APPROACH NEVADA THIS WEEK, PROVIDING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.
644 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015 UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA WILL EXIT TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT. A SLOWING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY THEN STALL ACROSS SOUTHERN OHIO TUESDAY NIGHT.
1235 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015 A COOLER AIRMASS WILL SETTLE ONTO THE PLAINS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALOFT THE WESTERN EXTENT AN UPPER TROUGH WAS TRANSLATING SOUTHEAST THRU MT AND THIS TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY. LOW PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM MINNESOTA TO EASTERN COLORADO WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA THRU WESTERN/CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND KANSAS. THE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE SOUTHEAST DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS AND DURING THE DAY MONDAY WITH TSTM CHCS EXISTING WITH FORCING ALONG THE FRONT. COOLER AIR ADVECTS SOUTH WITH DPS PROGGED TO DROP INTO THE 50S.
UPPER TROF EXTENDS FROM OHIO TO FLORIDA. SURFACE AND UPPER RIDGING REMAIN PRETTY MUCH IN PLACE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK.
THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THIS MORNING WILL BE WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA BY TONIGHT WITH CONTINUED NORTHERLY WINDS. WINDS SHIFT TO MORE OF AN EASTERLY DIRECTION TOMORROW AS A DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE TREKS EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TOMORROW WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO UPPER 70S ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS. 850MB MIX DOWN TEMPERATURES SUGGESTING HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER 70S, HOWEVER GIVEN THIS TIME OF YEAR AND SOME AFTERNOON SUN POSSIBLE A RELUCTANT TO GO MUCH COOLER THAN WHAT THE LATEST MET GUIDANCE SUGGESTS.
251 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE TONIGHT. A RETURN FLOW BEHIND THE HIGH WILL TRANSPORT WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR INTO THE AREA TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MIDWEEK.
144 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER OUR AREA WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER WITH WARM TEMPERATURES TODAY. A COLD FRONT OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND PLAINS WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS OUR AREA LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. WAA AND BETTER GRADIENT MIXING WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUATION OF THE WARMING TREND TODAY WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN YDAY. LEANED TOWARD THE FASTER/COOLER SOLUTIONS IN THIS PORTION OF THE CWA. MOISTURE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT BUT SOME CONCERN REGARDING ASSOCIATED SHOWER/THUNDER CHANCES WITH THIS FEATURE GIVEN NORTH BYPASS OF MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS AND UNCERTAINTIES WITH POTENTIAL PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH/CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW. 25-30 KNOTS OF SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS AND POTENTIAL FOR WEAK BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION WARRANT SPC'S TUESDAY AFTN MARGINAL RISK (ISO WIND THREAT AT BEST).
1225 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015 COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA. REGIONAL RADAR CURRENTLY SHOWING LINE OF ACTIVITY STRETCHING FROM THE WRN GREAT LAKES TO SWRN NEB ALONG AN INTENSE COLD FRONT TRACKING SLOWLY TO THE EAST. BOTH ECM AND GFS DEPICT A GRADUAL LARGE SCALE TRANSITION TO A HIGH PRESSURE DOME ENVELOPING THE CONUS WHICH WILL ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO REBOUND INTO NEAR NORMAL TERRITORY.
145 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015 A WEAKENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTH ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA THIS AFTERNOON.
336 PM PDT MON JUL 6 2015 COOLER THIS WEEK WITH DAILY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
COLD FRONT STRETCHED FROM HRX TO JUST SOUTH OF AMA TO PPA TO HHF AT 2 PM. THE FORCING ALONG THIS FRONT ALONG WITH UPPER LEVEL FORCING FROM A MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL HELP TO PRODUCE THE FIRST WAVE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. BY LATE THIS EVENING ANOTHER WAVE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST OUT OF NEW MEXICO AND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING EAST FROM NEW MEXICO. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER ON TUESDAY.
425 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND AN INLAND TROUGH WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEK.
354 PM CDT Mon Jul 6 2015 (Tonight and Tomorrow) The upper level ridge will flatten over the area tonight as will the flow aloft over the forecast area. A weak cold front now moving south through the Panhandle will be entering our northwestern CWA around daybreak tomorrow. Surface convergence along the cold front tonight, aided by a 40+ kt LLJ, will increase the chance of convective activity over the northern and western CWA. Look for morning lows in the lower 70s and afternoon highs in the lower 80s in the Big Country to the mid and upper 80s elsewhere.
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN STALLS ACROSS THE REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST DURING THE DAY.
413 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015 UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA WILL EXIT TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT. A SLOWING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY THEN STALL ACROSS SOUTHERN OHIO TUESDAY NIGHT.
DPS ARE FCST TO INCREASE INTO THE LOW/MID 70S BY AFTN. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NW.
As the trough axis approaches Tuesday afternoon, instability and moisture levels will be on the increase across Northwest Montana.
245 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015 SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS A BROAD AREA OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN WISCONSIN WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT FROM NORTHEAST IOWA INTO SOUTHWEST IOWA. HIGH PRESSURE IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL START TO BUILD IN.
306 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015 A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST OUT OF THE AREA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE TUESDAY.
CLOUDS HAVE SLOWLY CLEARED TODAY AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO AS LOW PRESSURE PULLS OFF TO OUR NE.
442 PM CDT Mon Jul 6 2015 An upper level flat ridge is currently situated over the southern states with a short wave trough over the Appalachians. At the surface, a cold front extended from northern Missouri through south central Kansas into the Texas panhandle. The cold front will make its way southeastward this evening with the front situated along the I-44 corridor by 12z on Tuesday.
ONE FEATURE THAT WILL IMPACT NORTH TEXAS IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS IS A TROUGH CURRENTLY RUNNING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PART OF CANADA INTO THE NORTHERN UNITED STATES. ANOTHER FEATURE THAT WILL IMPACT THE WEATHER IN NORTH TEXAS IS A COLD FRONT WHICH IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS NEBRASKA AND INTO OKLAHOMA AND THE TEXAS PAN HANDLE. TODAY THERE IS MID LEVEL RIDGING OVER NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. THIS RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN TONIGHT. IT WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS AS THE TROUGH BUILDS SOUTH.
SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE TROUGH AND ARE SLOWLY MOVING EASTWARD. THE HIGH-RES WRF ARW SEEMS TO BE THE ONLY MESOSCALE GUIDANCE THAT HAS RESOLVED THE TROUGH IN A DECENT FASHION. ONE OTHER FACTOR THAT'S CURRENTLY IN PLAY IS SURFACE RIDGING ACROSS SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND SLIGHTLY DRIER DEWPOINTS IN THE MID AND UPPER 60S. THE RIDGING AND DRIER AIR PRESENT MIGHT INHIBIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AT LEAST EARLY ON TODAY. WITH ALL THAT IN MIND I'VE INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES TO 50 WITH THE TROUGH APPROACHING. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME WARMER AND RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE SOMEWHAT AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES.
339 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND TUESDAY.
WHICH THEN DISSIPATES ONCE THE STRONGER NORTHWEST WINDS PICK UP AS THE COLD FRONT GETS FARTHER EAST. THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK STARTS OUT RATHER QUIET WITH HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING SOUTH OF THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT.
FORECAST - THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND ACROSS FLORIDA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. A SLIGHT PICK UP IN WINDS IS EXPECTED MID WEEK AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS A BIT NORTHWARD TIGHTENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. A MID LATITUDE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. GENTLE TO MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST BREEZES WILL PERSIST TONIGHT THROUGH MID WEEK AS A RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS FLORIDA.
131 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015 A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND WARM TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES AND CAROLINAS BEGINNING TONIGHT WILL BRING A TREND TO WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND END OF THE WORK WEEK. CONVECTION THIS EVENING SHOULD LARGELY DIMINISH WITH SUNSET BUT GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF THE THE UPPER TROUGH. BLAES AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD BE MAINLY ISOLATED TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW SHEARS TO OUR NORTH AND JUST A WEAK PIEDMONT TROUGH REMAINS AMIDST RELATIVELY WEAK INSTABILITY. WITH HIGHS COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY IN THE LOWER 90S. GRADUAL WESTWARD REGRESSION OF SUBTROPICAL RIDGING WILL LIFT THE WESTERLIES AND PERSISTENT FRONTAL ZONE NORTH OF THE AREA IN THE MIDWEEK.
AS SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THIS REGION AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING INFLUENCES ALONG WITH WEAK DISTURBANCES IN FLOW ALOFT ARE MOST PREVALENT. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING KEEPING THE AREA DRY FRI THRU SUN. INTO THE LOW 90S. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING INFLUENCES WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO WEAKEN.
352 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015 SYNOPTIC PATTERN EARLY THIS WORK WEEK LOOKS TO GRADUALLY BE ON THE TREND TO MORE SUBTROPICAL RIDGING AND WARMER TEMPERATURES. IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGING/SUBSIDENCE MOVING IN FROM THE E AND MID-LEVEL DRYING MAY KEEP THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY LOW. AS THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ERN CONUS GRADUALLY EJECTS TO THE NE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW.
646 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015 ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL WITH AN INLAND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LINGERING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER-MID 70S INLAND WITH UPPER 70S ALONG THE BEACHES AND DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON. A REMNANT UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL WEAKEN ACROSS THE SC MIDLANDS AND A BROAD UPPER RIDGE WILL REBUILD. IN THE LOWER LEVELS A STEADY SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE. SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S AND TEMPS IN THE LOWER 90S WILL YIELD 1500-2000 J/KG CAPES.
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FCST TO BEGIN ANCHORING ITSELF OVER THE SE U. ASIDE FROM SOME POSSIBLE TROPICAL ELY WAVE ACTION EMBEDDED IN THE UNDERSIDE OF THE RIDGE.
316 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015 ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL WITH AN INLAND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LINGERING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER-MID 70S INLAND WITH UPPER 70S ALONG THE BEACHES AND DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON. A REMNANT UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL WEAKEN ACROSS THE SC MIDLANDS AND A BROAD UPPER RIDGE WILL REBUILD. IN THE LOWER LEVELS A STEADY SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE. SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S AND TEMPS IN THE LOWER 90S WILL YIELD 1500-2000 J/KG CAPES.
TEMPERATURES THERE WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN REST OF THE AREA ON TUE-WED. -HOWERTON MODEST CONFIDENCE IN THIS PERIOD AS RIDGE BUILDS WEST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. STRONG COLD FRONT IS MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS NORTHERN/CENTRAL KS AND CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM EXTREME NORTHEAST KS INTO THE OK PANHANDLE.
WEAK RIDGING IS TRYING TO DEVELOP BUT THE LATEST 12Z NAM SHOWS IT HAVING A HARD TIME. SUPPRESSING OF RIDGE AND FRONT TO OUR NORTH WILL YIELD LOW END CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW.
AN UPPER LOW OFF THE COAST HAS BEEN ACTING TO DEEPEN THE MARINE LAYER AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO DO OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE MAIN STORY OF THE WEEK WITH BE THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NW CALIFORNIA AS A RESULT OF THE PASSING UPPER LOW. (ALSO SEE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW) THIS UPPER LOW WILL BRING SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY IN MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW. AS THIS LOW CROSSES MORE DATA RICH REGIONS TO OUR SOUTH, WE SHOULD GET A BETTER SNAPSHOT ON ITS STRUCTURE. REGARDLESS, MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT THAT THIS UPPER LOW WILL PROVIDE THE NEEDED FORCING TO GENERATE THUNDERSTORMS, SOME OF WHICH MAY BE STRONG.
A COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH MOST OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. /ISSUED 636 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015/ WIND SHIFT ASSOCIATED WITH INCOMING COLD FRONT HAS PASSED THROUGH NORTHWEST CORNER OF FORECAST AREA. PARTICULARLY ALONG AND NEAR COLD FRONT WHICH IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH KAMA AROUND 22Z TODAY. A FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR CONTINUES ITS SOUTHERLY TRACK TOWARDS THE PANHANDLES. SOME DISTINCT DIFFERENCES IN THE SOUTHWARD PROGRESS OF THE COLD FRONT REMAINS BETWEEN THE MODELS.
CLOSER TO HOME, THE TENNESSEE VALLEY HAS BEEN QUIET ASIDE FROM A FEW SHOWERS BEGINNING TO FORM ALONG THE RIDGES OF NORTHEAST ALABAMA.
248 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015 VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA WITH RELATIVELY DRIER AIRMASS INDICATED THROUGH THE COLUMN VERSUS THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS.
415 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015 A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY.
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SHOWING SOME CONGESTED CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT OVER THE CASCADES, THE EAST SIDE AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. FORCING FOR THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS RELATIVELY WEAK, SO FAVORED THUNDERSTORM LOCATIONS WILL BE WHERE THE ATMOSPHERE IS MOST UNSTABLE AND ALSO HAS THE HIGHEST MID-LEVEL MOISTURE (FROM THE CASCADES EAST AND THE SISKIYOUS SOUTH).
211 PM PDT MON JUL 6 2015 LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL SLOWLY MOVE ONSHORE AND BRING THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEK, ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR TODAY AND TOMORROW, BUT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE ANY DAY THIS WEEK. THE ACTIVE THUNDERSTORM PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ALL WEEK AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY MOVES EAST OVER CA/NV.
(MODIFIED PREVIOUS DISCUSSION) THE CENTER OF MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETROGRADE WESTWARD FROM THE WESTERN ATLC TOWARDS THE DEEP SOUTH DURING THIS TIME. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING OVER THE NORTH PENINSULA ON THU WILL GET NUDGED FURTHER SOUTH THIS WEEKEND BACK ACROSS THE CENTRAL PENINSULA. CONSENSUS MOS POPS HAVE RISEN FOR SUN/MON AS THE MODELS INDICATE A BACK DOOR FRONTAL TROUGH APPROACHING. STEERING FLOW LOOKS WEAKER WHICH SHOULD FAVOR THE HIGHEST AFTERNOON STORM CHANCES ACROSS INLAND SITES.
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST WILL MAINTAIN STRONG ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE LOW STRATUS AND FOG MADE ITS WAY INTO ALL OF THE COASTAL ZONES AND MOST OF THE VALLEY LOCATIONS THIS MORNING.
HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE SUNDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES TOWARD CALIFORNIA.
1048 AM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015 WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM CANADA. WHILE HIGH TEMPS STAY CLOSER TO 80F OVER THE HIGHEST TERRAIN OF THE NORTH AND WEST. SFC COLD FRONT SAGS INTO THE STATE FROM THE NW OVERNIGHT. LOW TEMPS EARLY SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S. THE LOWER 60S FROM KJST TO KUNV AND KIPT.
THE PERSISTENT WESTERN CONUS TROUGH PATTERN HAS FINALLY BROKEN. GENERALLY WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED FOR THE SOUTHWEST AS A RESULT. A COLD FRONT HAS SLIPPED THROUGH THE PANHANDLES OVERNIGHT AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON. WITH A DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST BY MID TO LATE WEEK. THE RIDGE SHOULD ALLOW FOR A BRIEF BUT RAPID WARMING TREND FOR THE PANHANDLES.
THE FRONT SINKS ACROSS ILL BY LATE MORNING BUT THE TROUGH AXIS ISN/T SLATED TO CLEAR THE FORECAST AREA TIL THIS EVENING.
909 AM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TODAY AND WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT.
HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH THE LOW 60S WITH SOME AREAS IN THE HIGHER COTEAU REGION POSSIBLY NOT EVEN REACHING 60 DEGREES.
INTRODUCED ISOLATED CONVECTION TO THE MSA BEFORE 18Z TODAY OWING TO CURRENT ACTIVITY (RADAR)/PSN OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS (GFS DETERMINISTIC)/LOW CIN AND HIGH CAPE (LAPS ANALYSES.
607 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015 EARLY THIS MORNING AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE HAS SHIFTED OVER THE FOUR STATE REGION FROM SOUTH ARKANSAS INTO NORTH LOUISIANA. FROM THIS LOW A COLD FRONT TRAILED SOUTHWST ACROSS WEST TEXAS.
AS THE UPPER LONGWAVE TROUGH PROGRESSES EASTWARD FROM THE ROCKIES TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
1159 AM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015 BERMUDA HIGH WILL BEGIN PUSHING AWAY FROM THE REGION TODAY AS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL US. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S AND REMAIN ON TRACK FOR UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EAST COAST WILL SLIDE EASTWARD THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS THROUGH THE MS VALLEY.
A REX BLOCK IS NOW WEAKENING OFFSHORE WITH THE RIDGE OVER ALASKA AND THE LOW NEAR 35N 150W. LOWS ARE NOW BEGINNING TO UNDERCUT THE RIDGE. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST WITH NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT IS NOW STARTING TO MOVE EAST. THE FIRST AND STRONGEST OF SEVERAL TROUGHS UNDERCUTTING THE RIDGE WILL APPROACH THE COAST SUNDAY. A STRONG SHORT WAVE ROUNDING THE BOTTOM OF THE TROUGH WILL MOVE ONSHORE SUNDAY EVENING OVER EXTREME NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. IT WILL GET QUITE BREEZY OVER THE RIDGES AND EAST OF THE CASCADES.
BELIEVE THIS AREA WILL SEE THE HIGHEST TEMPERATURES TODAY. A STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO HOLD FIRM OVER EASTERN ALABAMA AND THE SOUTHEASTERN ATLANTIC COAST REGION. THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER NORTH CAROLINA AND VIRGINIA THIS MORNING. AS STRONG AS THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS.
851 AM MDT SAT MAY 30 2015 WEAK UPPER LOW OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA THIS MORNING IS HELPING TO DRAG A WEAK COOL FRONT INTO WASHINGTON/ORE. THIS COMBINED WITH A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER LOW APPROACHING THE WEST COAST SHOULD HELP KEEP EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE REGION. MADE A FEW CHANGES TO THE MORNING FORECAST BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS AND LOWERED MAX TEMPS A FEW DEGREES BUT WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED IF WE STAYED SLIGHTLY COOLER. BUT WE ARE STARTING OUT MUCH WARMER THAN YESTERDAY MORNING. HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO RISE THROUGH SUNDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PULLS EAST FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA WHILE ANOTHER LARGER LOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED OFF THE PAC NW COAST. WE WILL SEE WARMER TEMPS EACH DAY THIS WEEKEND WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MAINLY IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND MAINLY IN THE NORTH.
The combination of cooler air and continued cloud cover will result in rather chilly highs today for the western 2/3 of the forecast area, with highs in the 60s. The eastern Ozarks look to make it into the low 70s before the front passes through. Will need to closely watch the potential for areas of dense fog, especially where stratus is able to build down toward the higher terrain.
1141 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015 THE COLD FRONT HAS LONG SINCE CLEARED THE MPX CWA THIS MORNING. THOUGH MIXING TO H85 ON THE GFS/NAM WOULD SAY WE COULD SEE HIGHS A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN WHAT WE HAVE. BUT WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN UP WEST OF THESE THREE COUNTIES /FARTHER FROM THE HIGH CENTER/.
BUT WITH THE LARGER-SCALE MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE REGION.
IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. AN ATLANTIC RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THIS AFTERNOON. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED IN THE VICINITY OF BERMUDA TODAY.
Behind all of these thunderstorms a cold front will move into the area, bringing cooler temperatures and northerly winds. This evening into tonight, depending on where the cold front/outflow boundaries end up, there is a chance for thunderstorms to develop in our southern counties.
However, MVFR ceilings may again form along and behind a cold front which will push south through all the terminals this morning.
818 AM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015 BERMUDA HIGH WILL BEGIN PUSHING AWAY FROM THE REGION TODAY AS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL US. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EAST COAST WILL SLIDE EASTWARD THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS THROUGH THE MS VALLEY.
THROW IN A CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT EAST WIND AND ALMOST A GIVEN WE WERE GOING TO DROP INTO THE LOW 30S. AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE HUDSON BAY CONTINUES EASTWARD.
632 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015 FOR 12Z TAFS /ISSUED 306 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015/ ATTM MOST OF THE CWA IS UNDER MOSTLY CLR SKIES WITH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW/MID 60S. WHILE AN UPPER TROF WAS OVER THE SRN PLAINS. THE CDFNT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SE TODAY AND SHOULD BE LOCATED OVER SERN MO BY THIS EVENING AS THE UPPER TROF ALSO MOVES TOWARDS THE TN VALLEY. WITH THE CDFNT/UPPER TROF APPROACHING THE TN VALLEY TONIGHT.
734 AM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015 WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY AS A COLD FRONT REMAINS WELL TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE COMMONWEALTH. THE SLOW- MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY. A WELL-DEFINED WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING EAST ALONG THE FRONT FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WILL LIKELY BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO MUCH OF THE STATE SUNDAY. ALONG WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF PENNSYLVANIA.
A RIP CURRENT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED DETAILING THE HIGH RIP CURRENT HAZARD.
ANY AVAILABLE INSTABILITY WILL BE RELEGATED TO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA WITH THE HIGHEST LOW LEVEL THETA-E AIR.
A COLD FRONT WILL THEN GRADUALLY MOVE THROUGH AR TODAY AND SWITCH WINDS TO THE W TO NW AND CEILINGS WILL SLOWLY RISE WITH A LOWER CHANCE OF RAIN.
THE 12Z SOUNDING FROM THIS MORNING INDICATES THAT THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ARE MOISTENING UP WITH THE PW INCREASING TO 1. AT THE SAME TIME THAN THE LOW LEVELS ARE MOISTENING UP THE MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES HAVE DECREASED A BIT SINCE YESTERDAY, WITH THE SUBSIDENCE SIGNATURE LESS EVIDENT THAN YESTERDAY.
/ISSUED 259 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015/ CURRENTLY COLD FRONT FROM GREAT LAKES DOWN THROUGH IOWA INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA WILL PULL EAST DURING THE DAY AND BE ALONG MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY SUNDOWN THIS EVENING. AT 07Z UPPER TROUGH TAKING ON NEGATIVE TILT FROM SOUTHEAST KANSAS DOWN THROUGH WESTERN ARKANSAS INTO LOUISIANA WITH CONVECTION CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM ILLINOIS DOWN THROUGH EASTERN MISSOURI INTO ARKANSAS. COLD FRONT CRAWLS ALONG THE TENNESSEE RIVER BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND ALONG INTERSTATE 65 BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY MORNING AND CONTINUES SLOWLY EASTWARD DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY.
A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM ABOUT OKLAHOMA CITY TO ABILENE TO FORT STOCKTON. SHRA/TSRA WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST BETWEEN 15-17Z AS TEMPS WARM INTO THE LOWER 80S. THE COLD FRONT OVER NORTH TEXAS WILL BE PUSHING SOUTH AND EAST AND WILL REACH THE NORTHERN ZONES ABOUT 18Z. THE QPF OUTPUT FROM THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE MORE BENIGN BUT THEY ARE BASICALLY ON THE SAME PAGE WITH A WEAK SEA BREEZE MERGING WITH THE COLD FRONT. THE COMBINATION OF THE FRONT AND A TROUGH AT 500 MB WILL LEAD TO ADDITIONAL SHOWERS OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 87 67 81 65 / 20 20 50 30 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 86 65 80 64 / 20 20 50 40 OAK RIDGE, TN 87 66 80 64 / 20 20 50 30 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 87 62 78 62 / 20 20 60 40.
HRRR AND NAM SUGGEST WEAK COASTAL TROUGH WILL WORK WESTWARD.
625 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015 TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA NEAR OR BELOW THE FREEZING MARK (EXCEPT THE BAUDETTE AND BEMIDJI AREA WHERE CLOUDS HAVE ARRIVED FROM THE NORTH). HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY PROPAGATE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT.
BELIEVE THIS AREA WILL SEE THE HIGHEST TEMPERATURES TODAY.
1007 AM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015 WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT LATE SUNDAY. COOLER WEATHER WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION TO START THE WORK WEEK. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WOULD BE IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT.