Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Some clouds and and weak radar returns have started to develop over the higher terrain with diurnal heating. Overall it looks like this activity will remain over the higher terrain. Highs will be in the low to mid 90s today. Tomorrow will be another warm day with highs again in the low to mid 90s. Reimer Overall the the extended will be dominated by a ridge over the Northern Rockies. This will keep the area generall dry, outside of the higher terrain where some mostly diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms will be possible most afternoons. Isolated thunderstorms and showers over the higher terrain expected through around 03Z and may drift into adjacent plains.
(This evening through Wednesday) An upper level low is currently located west of the Big Bend region and is forecast to continue to move west. Expect overnight low temperatures in the low to mid 70s for most locations.
304 PM EDT Tue Aug 16 2022 A persistent upper trough will cut off overhead today and slowly migrate northeast through the rest of the week. Temperatures will trend gradually warmer to near average values by late week as the upper low moves up the coast into the Canadian Maritime provinces. Early afternoon temps across the central ridges into the mid and lower Susq have achieved a few degrees of upside from previous maxT fcst with updated highs 80-85F range. With little change in the overall pattern (CPA remains under the influence of anomalous 500mb trough) expect another day of diurnal convection with unusual storm motions generally from the north.
Upper low will briefly stall over the upper Midwest with the FA on the backside with subsident flow. Cooler and drier NNE ll flow will then help settle the main frontal zone south of the region this weekend with most rain chances south of the FA where the better moisture and main storm track will be. This will also support cooler conds with highs in the 70s and 80s.
Pattern Synopsis: Closed upper-level low over New England with broad longwave upper ridging across the western/central CONUS. High pressure east of James Bay with a ridge axis extending southwest across the northern Lakes into the Midwest. This activity focused largely within a mid level theta-e ridge positioned up the spine of the higher terrain in northern lower with MUCAPES around 500 j/kg.
1243 PM CDT Tue Aug 16 2022 (The rest of today ) Temperatures are warming quickly this morning, and the process will likely be accelerated as sfc winds veer ahead of approaching cold front later this afternoon.
An upper-level trough remains parked over the eastern third of the United States. This has acted to disrupt the quasistationary ridge that has largely dominated the sensible weather for the Florida Keys for much of this summer.
The highest impacts will be felt in the lower valleys of north-central Idaho where overnight lows will also stay uncomfortable.
Cooler temperatures overspread the area from Wednesday through the weekend. This activity has persisted but weakened as the low level jet fueling it has lessened. For Wednesday, the cooler air looks to overspread the entire region, with highs in the 70s to low 80s CWA- wide.
213 PM CDT Tue Aug 16 2022 Another wave of energy will pivot the mean long wave trof and activate a round of showers, maybe isolated thunderstorms, overrunning the surface boundary.
253 PM EDT Tue Aug 16 2022 A persistent upper trough will cut off overhead today and slowly migrate northeast through the rest of the week. Temperatures will trend gradually warmer to near average values by late week as the upper low moves up the coast into the Canadian Maritime provinces. Early afternoon temps across the central ridges into the mid and lower Susq have achieved a few degrees of upside from previous maxT fcst with updated highs 80-85F range. With little change in the overall pattern (CPA remains under the influence of anomalous 500mb trough) expect another day of diurnal convection with unusual storm motions generally from the north.
408 PM EDT Tue Aug 16 2022 Periodic showers and perhaps a thunderstorm chances will continue until dry conditions return later in the week with building high pressure. Extensive cloud cover and upper troughing will maintain slightly below normal highs and normal lows. No change in the weather expected through Wednesday night as the low/trough remains near the nern CONUS.
This evening through Wednesday night H5 ridging continues to builds northwestward from the Four Corners region into southern Idaho this afternoon. Widely scattered showers and a few thunderstorms continue to bubble up along the ridgelines of higher elevations this afternoon. This will lead to cooler temperatures statewide, with lows in the mid 50s for lower elevations, and low to mid 40s for the western valleys and YNP.
Temperatures range from the low to mid 70s along and north of the Tennessee and Mississippi state line with upper 80s to lower 90s southward.
After morning clouds and fog, Wednesday will see partly cloudy and warmer conditions with high temperatures in the upper 70s to lower 80s.
NE winds are keeping temps below normal, and slightly muggy but still quite manageable dewpoints in the lower 60s. Low-level thickness progs suggest temps within a degree either way from persistence, with a bit more sunshine to favor the high side in south-central KY. We will remain under northwest flow aloft as the amplified pattern across the CONUS persists for another day with the closed upper low located over New England and strong ridging over the Intermountain West. At the surface, weak high pressure dropping southward out of the Great Lakes settles in over the Ohio Valley providing us with a dry and mostly sunny day.
(The rest of today ) Temperatures are warming quickly this morning, and the process will likely be accelerated as sfc winds veer ahead of approaching cold front later this afternoon.
(This afternoon through Wednesday Night) This Tuesday afternoon, Middle Tennessee was located between an upper level low pressure system over the northeast states and a big, hot high pressure system out west. Thanks to this pattern, temperatures were well below normal with mid afternoon readings in the low to mid 70s. The deepening upper low over the northeast states will push the main band of moisture farther southwest, so most of the rain late tonight through Wednesday will fall west of our coverage area. Temps on Wednesday will be warmer than today with less cloud cover, but still cooler than normal.
The upper level trough axis located just south of Tampa is inhibiting convection development north of the boundary. The ridge begins to move westward again into the weekend bringing back the east, south east flow and typical summertime pattern for showers and storms.
Surface obs showed temperatures running a few degrees warmer than 24 hours ago, although still well below mid August averages, and dewpoints a few degrees lower than yesterday. With the deep moisture and some instability in place, no spot can be completely ruled out for thunderstorm chances this afternoon and evening, although the high resolution models are in decent agreement that the lowest chances will be in the Death Valley region and the lower elevations of Clark County. Nocturnal storm chances look small tonight, but some of the high res models show storms persisting Wednesday night in the southern Great Basin.
1156 AM EDT Tue Aug 16 2022 Periodic showers and perhaps a thunderstorm chances will continue through much of the week under upper level low pressure. Extensive cloud cover and upper troughing should maintain another day of below average temperature on the order of 5 or so degrees. A similar pattern should ensue once again Wednesday as the low/trough should remain near the nern CONUS through Wednesday night.
NE winds are keeping temps below normal, and slightly muggy but still quite manageable dewpoints in the lower 60s. Low- level thickness progs suggest temps within a degree either way from persistence, with a bit more sunshine to favor the high side in south-central KY. We will remain under northwest flow aloft as the amplified pattern across the CONUS persists for another day with the closed upper low located over New England and strong ridging over the Intermountain West. At the surface, weak high pressure dropping southward out of the Great Lakes settles in over the Ohio Valley providing us with a dry and mostly sunny day.
126 PM EDT Tue Aug 16 2022 Periodic showers and perhaps a thunderstorm chances will continue through much of the week under upper level low pressure. Extensive cloud cover and upper troughing should maintain another day of below average temperature on the order of 5 or so degrees. A similar pattern should ensue once again Wednesday as the low/trough should remain near the nern CONUS through Wednesday night.
BW Chattanooga Airport, TN 68 82 67 83 68 / 30 40 30 50 30 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 66 83 66 83 66 / 10 40 30 50 20 Oak Ridge, TN 65 83 65 83 65 / 10 30 20 40 20 Tri Cities Airport, TN 62 80 61 81 62 / 30 40 20 40 10.
Wednesday still looks like the hottest day when the upper high over the interior west moves directly over our CWA. An Excessive Heat Warning is in effect for the Oregon part of the Lower Treasure Valley Wednesday afternoon and evening, and we also have a Heat Advisory in effect Wednesday afternoon and evening for the rest of eastern Oregon, and the Treasure Valley and Upper Weiser Valley in Idaho.
Mid to upper level ridging over the Central/Southern Plains should continue to bring hot and dry weather over the next few days. Influence from the upper level ridge continues to strengthen as we head into Wednesday. Heading into Wednesday night, a weak frontal boundary spanning across northern TX, OK and ARK will drift into southeast Texas in response to a mid to upper level trough over the Northeastern CONUS.
200 PM CDT Tue Aug 16 2022 Upper level ridging will remain in place across the western one third of the country the next couple of days. Northwest flow aloft will continue east of the ridging across much of the central portions of the country. Meanwhile deep troughing will continue to impact the eastern CONUS. At the surface, a cold front has settled well south of the region across the Southern Plains. Low-level southerly return flow will develop as the high shifts to the east. Should see the low stratus cloud deck gradually erode as better boundary layer mixing develops, especially by the afternoon hours.
Discussion: Water vapor imagery and H5 heights show an interesting mid and upper level pattern with main ridge axis over the western states and a secondary pseudo-axis over the New Mexico and Texas. Abundant cloud cover has resulted in cooler than forecast high temperatures for all but the far northeast forecast counties, so have knocked down temperatures a few degrees for most locations.
By late morning, rainfall rates should lessen as the low-level forcing and frontogenetical signal both weaken. As was alluded to in yesterday's discussion, model guidance has a northeast bias with subsequent rounds of convection, due to the antecedent convection either pushing the front or effective front further to the south/southwest, or retarding the northeastward movement of a surface warm front.
As a result high temperatures will return to the low 80s for most.
A wetter period can be anticipated starting tomorrow through the weekend as a low pressure system with tropical origin impacts the region. Models were in good agreement with this low bringing an influx of deep moisture into the region as it moves closer and becomes somewhat stalled over NW Mexico/NRN Gulf of California this weekend.
210 PM MDT Tue Aug 16 2022 A dry forecast ahead in the short term as high pressure continues to build across western Wyoming. an upper level 500mb ridge continues to build across eastern Idaho and western Wyoming. That upper ridge continues to build out west.
Upper ridging will begin to weaken over the area tonight, as upper troughing deepens and pushes a frontal boundary into the northern portions of the area. This combined with dewpoints in the low 70s will create heat indices of around 100-106.
An upper trof over much of the eastern states gradually expands westward through the period, and in the process upper ridging over the south central states retreats westward. Lows tonight range from the lower 70s inland to the upper 70s near the coast. Highs Wednesday will be in the lower to mid 90s.
916 PM EDT Tue Aug 16 2022 Periodic showers and perhaps a thunderstorm chances will continue until dry conditions return later in the week with building high pressure. No change in the weather expected through Wednesday night as the low/trough remains near the nern CONUS.
with temperatures generally a few degrees warmer compared to this time yesterday. Upper level high pressure continues to nudge west over Oregon this afternoon and is expected to continue its westward track. with the ridge axis centered generally over Lake and Klamath counties by tomorrow afternoon.
A cold front will move south through the area early Wednesday morning which will shift winds around to the north and northeast although wind speeds will remain light. No precip is expected tonight through mid-day tomorrow as the upper ridge continues to remain overhead. Even if there is not precip to be had tomorrow, one plus from the front will be cooler temps with highs ranging in the upper 80s/90s.
525 PM EDT Tue Aug 16 2022 A persistent upper trough will cut off overhead today and slowly migrate northeast through the rest of the week. Temperatures will trend gradually warmer to near average values by late week as the upper low moves up the coast into the Canadian Maritime provinces. With little change in the overall pattern (CPA remains under the influence of anomalous 500mb trough), expect another day of diurnal convection with unusual storm motions generally from north to south.
1028 PM EDT Tue Aug 16 2022 Upper level low pressure will remain in place over the northeastern states, with below normal temperatures continuing across the Ohio Valley. Warmer temperatures and increasing chances for rain are expected over the weekend, as another area of low pressure moves in from the west. Clearing skies through this evening, with light NNE flow as the region remains on the backside of a trough of low pressure over WV. Expecting some locally dense fog in some of the river valley areas with very light winds and a developing inversion late tonight, with surface dewpoints across the south to remain in the lower 60s.
Expect for tomorrow to be slightly warmer and drier than today, but still could see an isolated storm or two mainly over our southwestern counties. (This afternoon through Wednesday Night) This Tuesday afternoon, Middle Tennessee was located between an upper level low pressure system over the northeast states and a big, hot high pressure system out west. Thanks to this pattern, temperatures were well below normal with mid afternoon readings in the low to mid 70s. The deepening upper low over the northeast states will push the main band of moisture farther southwest, so most of the rain late tonight through Wednesday will fall west of our coverage area. Temps on Wednesday will be warmer than today with less cloud cover, but still cooler than normal.
High pressure was in control over the Midwest which has led to comfortable conditions this afternoon with temperatures in the upper 70s to low 80s.
549 PM CDT Tue Aug 16 2022 (This afternoon through Wednesday Night) This Tuesday afternoon, Middle Tennessee was located between an upper level low pressure system over the northeast states and a big, hot high pressure system out west. Thanks to this pattern, temperatures were well below normal with mid afternoon readings in the low to mid 70s. The deepening upper low over the northeast states will push the main band of moisture farther southwest, so most of the rain late tonight through Wednesday will fall west of our coverage area. Temps on Wednesday will be warmer than today with less cloud cover, but still cooler than normal.
1021 PM EDT Tue Aug 16 2022 Currently - A surface through lower level ridge extending across our latitude is weakened in our area due to a broad mid latitude trough over the eastern United States. Short Term Update - The ridge axis is expected to shift slightly southward tonight, closer to Cuba. This along with the lack of flow near the ridge axis will result in slight chance PoPs at best. A pressure ridge across the Keys will shift slightly southward overnight. A few nocturnal showers may develop late tonight or early tomorrow morning mainly near the Lower and Middle Keys.
921 PM CDT Tue Aug 16 2022 Quiet night ongoing across the region with a ridge axis extending northwest to southeast across the region and a fair amount of mid layer dry air in place. The above mentioned ridge will maintain hot and dry conditions through much of the day tomorrow ahead of a sagging frontal boundary that will approach the region by tomorrow evening.
700 PM EDT Tue Aug 16 2022 A persistent upper trough will cut off overhead today and slowly migrate northeast through the rest of the week. Temperatures will trend gradually warmer to near average values by late week as the upper low moves up the coast into the Canadian Maritime provinces. Scattered showers and isolated thunder continue to affect much of central PA, outside of the Lower Susq Valley. With little change in the overall pattern (central PA remains under the influence of an anomalous 500mb trough), expect another day of diurnal convection with storm motions generally from north to south.
639 PM CDT Tue Aug 16 2022 A Cold front continues to slowly move south through the state this evening.
547 PM CDT Tue Aug 16 2022 Updated aviation section for 00z taf issuance Another wave of energy will pivot the mean long wave trof and activate a round of showers, maybe isolated thunderstorms, overrunning the surface boundary.
545 PM MDT Tue Aug 16 2022 A dry forecast ahead in the short term as high pressure continues to build across western Wyoming. an upper level 500mb ridge continues to build across eastern Idaho and western Wyoming. That upper ridge continues to build out west.
1042 PM EDT Tue Aug 16 2022 A persistent upper trough will cut off overhead today and slowly migrate northeast through the rest of the week. Temperatures will trend gradually warmer to near average values by late week as the upper low moves up the coast into the Canadian Maritime provinces. With little change in the overall pattern (central PA remains under the influence of an anomalous 500mb trough), expect another day of diurnal convection on Wednesday with storm motions generally from north to south.
805 PM EDT Tue Aug 16 2022 A persistent upper trough will cut off overhead today and slowly migrate northeast through the rest of the week. Temperatures will trend gradually warmer to near average values by late week as the upper low moves up the coast into the Canadian Maritime provinces. Scattered showers and isolated thunder continue to affect much of central PA, outside of the Lower Susq Valley. With little change in the overall pattern (central PA remains under the influence of an anomalous 500mb trough), expect another day of diurnal convection with storm motions generally from north to south.
739 PM EDT Tue Aug 16 2022 Upper level low pressure will remain in place over the northeastern states, with below normal temperatures continuing across the Ohio Valley. Warmer temperatures and increasing chances for rain are expected over the weekend, as another area of low pressure moves in from the west. Nearly stationary low pressure trough centered over western VA/WV will keep light NE winds over the region.
620 PM EDT Tue Aug 16 2022 Periodic showers and perhaps a thunderstorm chances will continue until dry conditions return later in the week with building high pressure. Extensive cloud cover and upper troughing will maintain slightly below normal highs and normal lows. No change in the weather expected through Wednesday night as the low/trough remains near the nern CONUS.
932 PM EDT Tue Aug 16 2022 A persistent upper trough will cut off overhead today and slowly migrate northeast through the rest of the week. Temperatures will trend gradually warmer to near average values by late week as the upper low moves up the coast into the Canadian Maritime provinces. With little change in the overall pattern (central PA remains under the influence of an anomalous 500mb trough), expect another day of diurnal convection on Wednesday with storm motions generally from north to south.
654 PM CDT Tue Aug 16 2022 (This evening through Wednesday) A cold front will begin to accelerate later this afternoon from northwestern Oklahoma into central Oklahoma. Although rather isolated, these storms near the southward-moving cold front would probably impact the greater OKC area 4 PM - 7 PM or so. Overnight, there is a signal for rain and thunderstorms over northwestern Oklahoma associated with the passage of the southern extent of the weak trough passing through the westerlies.
617 PM CDT Tue Aug 16 2022 (This evening through Wednesday) An upper level low is currently located west of the Big Bend region and is forecast to continue to move west. Expect overnight low temperatures in the low to mid 70s for most locations.
717 PM CDT Tue Aug 16 2022 Upper level ridging will remain in place across the western one third of the country the next couple of days. Northwest flow aloft will continue east of the ridging across much of the central portions of the country. Meanwhile deep troughing will continue to impact the eastern CONUS. At the surface, a cold front has settled well south of the region across the Southern Plains. Low-level southerly return flow will develop as the high shifts to the east. Should see the low stratus cloud deck gradually erode as better boundary layer mixing develops, especially by the afternoon hours.
638 PM EDT Tue Aug 16 2022 A persistent upper trough will cut off overhead today and slowly migrate northeast through the rest of the week. Temperatures will trend gradually warmer to near average values by late week as the upper low moves up the coast into the Canadian Maritime provinces. With little change in the overall pattern (CPA remains under the influence of anomalous 500mb trough), expect another day of diurnal convection with unusual storm motions generally from north to south.
Diurnal weak instability builds tomorrow, but mid levels will be slightly warmer, and thus probably looking at mostly isolated showers vs thunderstorms.
Rainfall amounts farther east near the Highway 83 corridor have been much less with around 0.
High pressure at the surface will work to limit precip progression into our region, but dinurally driven instability upstream in MN progressing into the far western portions of Lake Superior, as well as instability across parts of the interior west may support some scattered showers and maybe a rumble of thunder by afternoon. Deterministic models remain consistent throughout the forecast period with an overall synoptic pattern of broad downstream troughing over the northeast U. and ridging over the western and central U.
Highs will be in the low to mid 90s on Wednesday with some areas again near Heat Advisory criteria.
355 AM CDT Wed Aug 17 2022 Presently, upper level high pressure resides over most of the western half of the CONUS resulting in a broad and somewhat lowly amplified ridge. The forecast area remains under the eastern extent of associated thermal ridge. At the surface, weak low pressure presently located over southern Saskatchewan is helping to generate isolated showers that have worked into the northwestern corner of the state over the past few hours. Through the period, the ridge will narrow and amplify over the west CONUS as a potent trough slides down the eastern edge through the forecast area. Cutoff low pressure develops over the Corn Belt in the wake of the aforementioned potent trough cutting through the area.