Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
otherwise high pressure drifts off to the east this period with renewed south/southwest wind regime. Can't rule our further development later tonight into Sunday morning with the warm front lifting north through the area.
Upper low remains just offshore the Pac NW coast. Increased instability is expected Sunday as temps reach the the low to mid 90s across the western SD plains and dewpoints increase to the mid to upper 60s.
358 PM CDT Sat Jul 2 2022 High pressure aloft across the intermountain west will gradually shift east over the next couple of days. This will result in warmer weather returning to the local area.
Temps warming into the 60s and 70s, RH values largely in the 30s save for a few 20s in the interior west and central, and very few clouds in the sky really screams 'great!' The culprit responsible for this weather is high pressure slowly building into the Upper Great Lakes from our friends to the north. Lows tonight will be on the cooler side of seasonable for early July, ranging in the 40s and 50s. Later in the day on Sunday, warm front lifting north across the U.
Water vapor imagery this afternoon showing low amplitude upper ridge over the Pacific NW with zonal flow over the eastern CONUS. At the surface, region was under the influence of high pressure centered over Il. Over the next several days, models prog a strong upper level high pressure dome to build into the Plains equating to very warm conditions this coming week.
155 PM EDT Sat Jul 2 2022 A cold front will stall out across the Tennessee Valley, with lingering precipitation south of the Ohio River into this evening.
In its place upper level ridging returns, suppressing rain chances throughout the rest of the short term. Tomorrow, no significant rain chances expected expected as upper level ridging becomes dominant.
149 PM EDT Sat Jul 2 2022 A cold front pushing southeast from northwest PA will trigger scattered thunderstorms this afternoon/evening from the south central Alleghenies into the Lower Susquehanna Valley (LSV).
Much of the currently available guidance, including CAMs, suggests additional convective development by late this afternoon across nern OK in association with the outflow boundary, and possibly in the higher terrain of sern OK and nwrn AR.
Weak, flat upper ridge remains in place centered to our south, with multiple perturbations in this flow downstream over the higher terrain in NM. Given an upper ridge of similar strength over the northern Panhandles compared to yesterday, continued presence of moisture, and the shortcomings of yesterday's forecast - which incorrectly focused mentions of showers and storms to just the northern Panhandles - have instead elected to continue with the expansive mentions across much of the area late this afternoon and this evening, with convection potentially continuing into the night in the northern Panhandles. Sunday, orientation of the ridge may give us a short break from the summertime convection potential as upper disturbances eject northeastward to KS, bypassing the Panhandles.
(This evening through Sunday) A high pressure ridge, which has generally kept our weather hot and dry, has weakened a bit due to a disturbance moving into southern Texas.
Otherwise, it will continue to become muggier and warmer for most of the area under the subtropical ridge.
A warm front surging north late tonight into Sunday morning could set off some elevated showers and thunderstorms across central Wisconsin as isentropic lift takes advantage of some modest instability across that region. Another round of showers and thunderstorms could develop across north-central and portions of central Wisconsin on Sunday afternoon as a mid level disturbance tracks along the warm front across the northwestern Great Lakes region. Sunday Night Through Saturday A strong blocking pattern will dominate the weather pattern over the U. An upper-level high pressure ridge currently extending up from the Southeast U. Northeast Wisconsin will likely be located along the edge of the ridge throughout the week and could be affected by disturbances traveling along the periphery of the ridge at times.
1236 PM CDT Sat Jul 2 2022 Upper level ridging remains in place today across the Southern Plains. Westerly flow aloft will continue across the Central Plains on the northern periphery of the ridge. Low-level moisture/dew points in the lower to mid 60s will be maintained via the southeast low-level flow. Storms will move east- northeast off the trough into a moist and unstable environment.
208 PM EDT Sat Jul 2 2022 A cold front pushing southeast from northwest PA will trigger scattered thunderstorms this afternoon/evening from the south central Alleghenies into the Lower Susquehanna Valley (LSV).
Water vapor imagery shows the short wave trough over the northern Brush Country, with vorticity center near Cotulla, moving slowly to the north. Isolated to scattered convection is expected to form over the Brush Country late this afternoon and continue into the evening hours as the short wave trough moves to the north- northwest. Lows will be in the upper 70s inland to the lower 80s coast both nights. Mid level ridge over the northwest Gulf of Mexico will slowly build to the west into the Texas coast Sunday and Sunday night.
348 PM EDT Sat Jul 2 2022 A weak mid level low pressure system will cross the area tonight.
The trough will allow temperatures to continue to cool today with Valley daytime temperatures only peaking in the mid to upper 80s today, upper 70s to low 80s in the Delta and Sacramento areas. Additional cooling will occur tomorrow with Valley temperatures only peaking in the upper 70s to low 80s, roughly 10-20 degrees cooler than the daily normal.
Temperatures around the 90 degree mark for most, warmer towards the Oklahoma state line. Relatively light winds for the remainder of Saturday with more easterly components to the low level flow further north keeping some low level stratus into the overnight hours. Otherwise, a subtle mid level trough will skirt along southern counties increasing some thunderstorm activity for this area. Winds look to increase out of the south some between 10-20 mph shortly after sunrise Sunday morning with mixing to the surface with improved skies behind the aforementioned mid level trough.
341 PM EDT Sat Jul 2 2022 Much drier and cooler air moves in behind a cold front tonight.
An upper low pressure system spinning over the Pacific Northwest will usher in several pieces of energy this evening through the 4th of July. As mentioned above, the 4th of July looks much cooler and wet, especially in the afternoon and evening hours with showers and thunderstorms.
Lows overnight fall into the lower to mid 70s, with the exception of around 80 degrees along the immediate coast.
Surface analysis late this morning places a warm front over Southeast Kansas, Central Missouri, and into Southern Illinois. A warm and humid airmass remains in place across the Mid-South with surface dewpoints in the lower 70s and temperatures as of 10 AM CDT in the 80s across the area. The region will remain under a relatively flat upper level ridge, extending from the southern high plains to the Southeast. To the north, slightly stronger westerlies will prevail relative to yesterday, as a weak trof passage depresses midlevel heights over the mid-MS River and lower OH River valleys. In the wake of the northern branch trof passage, the subtropical upper level ridge will amplify over the Ozarks on Sunday.
(Independence Day through Saturday) Upper level ridging influences will strengthen across mid state region as Independence Day through much of next work week progresses.
This activity is within a weakness in the height field between a broad upper ridge over the Southern Plains. The upper- ridge will remain in a weakened state across the region, which should support at least isolated shower and t-storm development again tomorrow afternoon. Coverage may be a bit higher across southern portions of the forecast area, which will be in closer proximity to the inverted trough/tropical low moving west into the Trans-Pecos region by Sunday afternoon. Slightly lower heights may result in high temperatures backing off a couple degrees or so across the area - but we'll still likely see some triple-digits in the Low Rolling Plains. Upper ridging over the lower MS Valley is progged to remain centered roughly over this same area through the first half of the upcoming week.
------ Water vapor imagery shows the short wave trough over the northern Brush Country, with vorticity center near Cotulla, moving slowly to the north. Isolated to scattered convection is expected to form over the Brush Country late this afternoon and continue into the evening hours as the short wave trough moves to the north- northwest. Lows will be in the upper 70s inland to the lower 80s coast both nights. Mid level ridge over the northwest Gulf of Mexico will slowly build to the west into the Texas coast Sunday and Sunday night.
123 PM EDT Sat Jul 2 2022 Aviation -- Saturday and Sunday -- Temperatures over the weekend will be near normal with a fair amount of sun as post cold frontal high pressure is in place.
The surface cold front that initially looked to bring storm chances to central and southern Indiana through the weekend continues to slowly sag into the southern Ohio Valley which will allow for dry conditions through the overnight hours tonight into tomorrow.
257 PM MDT Sat Jul 2 2022 Convection is starting to come off the high terrain and there should be some storms over the adjacent plains by late afternoon. We're still on track for a Denver high near 90 F, or maybe just cooler. Tomorrow, the ridge will start to move east and temperatures will rise a few more degrees yet, bringing highs up to the low to mid 90s across the plains, 70s and 80s in the foothills and mountain valleys, and 50s and 60s in the mountains. Models continue to show the upper ridge axis centered over southeastern U.
A mid-level ridge axis lies over Texas, and high heights are also spread over the Gulf. Summertime high pressure at the surface across the North Gulf will support moderate to fresh southeast breezes.
Would not expect much rain with any storm that does develop given the low dewpoints/meager moisture, with 95th percentile NBM QPF values only around 0.
1201 PM CDT Sat Jul 2 2022 (Today and tonight) Although we remain under a broad upper level ridge spread across the southern U. , a weak upper low embedded within the ridge can be seen spinning over southern Texas early this morning. This low will bring slightly cooler temperatures aloft into the area, making it more likely for showers and thunderstorms to develop. While this low will result in slightly better chances for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon, it should also cause afternoon highs to be a few degrees cooler.
a chance of convection mainly associated with max daytime heating will be possible across the higher terrain of Western Arkansas into Southeast Oklahoma. hot and humid conditions are forecast with highs in the low/mid 90s and heat index values in the 100 to 105 deg range. the main concern continues to be with the strong ridge of high pressure progged to build over the Southern Plains.
In general, with less convection going on to the south of Iowa tomorrow, there should be much less opaque cloud cover, and that also gives greater confidence on going a bit warmer, but as mentioned above, we won't be humid in the afternoon, so it should be tolerable summer warmth.
Expect mostly cloudy skies with lows falling into the low 70s.
114 PM EDT Sat Jul 2 2022 Drier air and seasonable temperatures return tonight behind a departing cold front. High pressure will then keep quiet weather in our region through the Fourth of July. Seasonable temperatures will be in place Sunday as shallow troughing departs.
328 PM EDT Sat Jul 2 2022 High pressure will keep skies clear and temperatures cool for the morning and mild for the afternoons through early Independence Day.
There is a weak high pressure ridge which is keeping those areas dry for now but with us getting into the heating of the day that will break down soon. The forecast area will be confined to the eastern periphery of a broad upper level ridge centered across the Central CONUS, with any large-scale forcing well to the north. Highs will generally be in the upper 80s to low 90s, though, a slight warming trend will be possible by mid-week given the influence of the upper level ridge.
If a thunderstorm were to develop, there is ample low level moisture available, with dewpoints in the 60s and CAPE will be on the lower end but still around 1000 to 1500 J/kg, but still enough where there could be an isolated strong to severe storm. A stronger disturbance moves into the High Plains by afternoon becoming the focus for storm development.
731 PM EDT Sat Jul 2 2022 A cold front pushing southeast will continue to trigger scattered thunderstorms into the evening across far south central PA.
1011 PM EDT Sat Jul 2 2022 A weak mid level low pressure system will cross the area tonight.
Conditions will generally remain unfavorable for Monsoon convection across the lower deserts the next several days, while better rain chances are expected across eastern Arizona.
An upper level low will continue creating unsettled weather through much of this weekend.
High pressure aloft across the intermountain west will gradually shift east over the next couple of days. This will result in warmer weather returning to the local area.
hot and humid conditions are forecast with highs in the low/mid 90s and heat index values in the 100 to 105 deg range. the main concern continues to be with the strong ridge of high pressure progged to build over the Southern Plains.
CD Chattanooga Airport, TN 72 91 73 91 74 / 20 60 40 40 20 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 72 90 71 91 73 / 30 60 50 50 20 Oak Ridge, TN 71 90 71 91 73 / 40 60 30 40 20 Tri Cities Airport, TN 68 87 67 88 68 / 30 60 40 50 20.
1007 PM EDT Sat Jul 2 2022 Much drier and cooler air moves in behind a cold front tonight.
215 PM MST Sat Jul 2 2022 Conditions will generally remain unfavorable for Monsoon convection across the lower deserts the next several days, while better rain chances are expected across eastern Arizona.
With high pressure to the north of the area, winds will remain light overnight. otherwise high pressure drifts off to the east this period with renewed south/southwest wind regime. Can't rule our further development later tonight into Sunday morning with the warm front lifting north through the area.
1018 PM EDT Sat Jul 2 2022 High pressure will keep skies clear and temperatures cool for the morning and mild for the afternoons through early Independence Day.
735 PM EDT Sat Jul 2 2022 A weak mid level low pressure system will cross the area tonight.
911 PM EDT Sat Jul 2 2022 A slow moving cold front will push through southern Pennsylvania overnight, then exit the state by early Sunday morning. High pressure building in from the Great Lakes will bring fair and seasonable weather with low humidity the rest of the July 4th weekend.
An upper level trough will move through the Mid Atlantic/Northeast on Sunday. NAM dewpoints are several degrees warmer than most other models. Highs will be in the lower 90s with lows in the lower 70s. An upper level ridge will build over the Southeast through mid- week before breaking down late in the week. Bermuda high pressure to the east will direct warm, moist flow into the region keeping PWAT values above normal with values around 2 inches. This pattern of upper level ridging, deep moisture and lack of upper level support suggests a typical summertime pattern of scattered afternoon and evening convection and a few cells lingering into the overnight hours.
645 PM EDT Sat Jul 2 2022 Much drier and cooler air moves in behind a cold front tonight.
An upper level low positioned along the PacNW coast has brought dynamic southwest flow over the forecast area today.
Convection is starting to come off the high terrain and there should be some storms over the adjacent plains by late afternoon. We're still on track for a Denver high near 90 F, or maybe just cooler. Tomorrow, the ridge will start to move east and temperatures will rise a few more degrees yet, bringing highs up to the low to mid 90s across the plains, 70s and 80s in the foothills and mountain valleys, and 50s and 60s in the mountains. Models continue to show the upper ridge axis centered over southeastern U.
Temps will cool into the 70s tonight, then warm into the lower 90s tomorrow afternoon. Weak ridging is in place across the waters, with relatively light S/SE winds turning onshore near the coast each day with the sea breeze.
617 PM CDT Sat Jul 2 2022 (This evening through Sunday) A high pressure ridge, which has generally kept our weather hot and dry, has weakened a bit due to a disturbance moving into southern Texas.
900 PM EDT Sat Jul 2 2022 A mid to upper-level ridge continues to be the dominate features controlling the Keys local weather today. The ridges are causing relatively dry and tranquil weather conditions for all of the Keys and most of the local waters today.
Similar to yesterday, widespread thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon due to a weakness in the upper ridge, providing the best chance for precipitation that we've had in awhile. The favored area for storm development remains in the higher terrain where there will be the greatest lift, but chances are also decent for the eastern Permian Basin and lower Trans Pecos as an inverted trough moves through the area. On Monday, the ridge axis will shift further east but temps still look to warm above normal in the mid to upper 90s. An upper trough off the Pacific NW will move inland early Monday, and moisture will increase over the area Monday evening and beyond.
Subtropical ridge axis has shifted a bit to the south today, with the low-level flow becoming more westerly to northwesterly by this afternoon. Therefore, will paint the highest PoPs across Florida for this afternoon and evening.
The latest run of the high resolution models continues the trend of little to no convection along the sea breeze for Sunday afternoon, so there is no mention of VCSH/VCTS in any of the TAFs. In its place upper level ridging returns, suppressing rain chances throughout the rest of the short term. Tomorrow, no significant rain chances expected expected as upper level ridging becomes dominant.
A well-formed low pressure circulation off the coast of the Pacific Northwest will push moisture into the Northern Rockies from the southwest through Independence Day. Rain will continue on Independence Day as the low pressure circulation moves onshore.
Off lake winds will occur Sunday and Monday keeping lakeside areas cooler. As high pressure slides east late tonight into Sunday, southerly low level flow will draw warmer temperatures and moisture north. Low level hodographs per the RAP showed plenty of curvature in the 0-3KM layer, especially in the evening/overnight when the low level jet increases as seen at 925MB. The low level jet, copious amounts of moisture, and a west to east frontal boundary south of the CWA will all support a threat of heavy rain Sunday night into Monday morning. There will be periodic chances for more showers/storms through the week with an upper ridge over the central CONUS and a West Coast trough.
127 AM EDT Sun Jul 3 2022 High pressure will keep skies clear and temperatures cool for the morning and mild for the afternoons through early Independence Day.
Upper to surface ridging to only shift slightly and meander over the region combining with abundant moisture, diurnal heating, and bay/sea breezes to produce scattered to numerous afternoon into evening showers and thunderstorms with heavy rain, frequent lightning, and some gusty winds daily with only subtle day to day variation. High pressure in the region and over the waters to continue through the week, with S/SE winds turning onshore near the coast each day with the sea breeze.
The VFR conditions prevail through the night and Sunday with the high clouds thinning and a few lower to mid level clouds developing. A mid-level ridge axis lies over Texas, and high heights are also spread over the Gulf. Summertime high pressure at the surface across the North Gulf will support moderate to fresh southeast breezes.
Deep layer ridging, and ESErly steering flow will continue through Independence Day. High temperatures will also be similar each day, reaching the lower 90s with heat indices in the low 100s.
A warm front surging north late tonight into Sunday morning could set off some elevated showers and thunderstorms across central Wisconsin as isentropic lift takes advantage of some modest instability across that region. Another round of showers and thunderstorms could develop across north-central and portions of central Wisconsin on Sunday afternoon as a mid level disturbance tracks along the warm front across the northwestern Great Lakes region.
327 AM CDT Sun Jul 3 2022 Key Messages: - Hot and Humid start to the week Water vapor satellite was showing moisture rotating into the central Plains on the northern periphery of the upper high. For today, temperatures will be warmer with temperatures around normal for early July in the upper 80s to around 90. A weak disturbance will move atop the ridge from Colorado into Nebraska by this evening. Focus then turns to Independence Day as the thermal ridge expands into central and eastern Kansas.
Otherwise, high pressure will build across the Great Lakes today and into the mid Atlantic on Monday, providing dry weather. Skies will be mainly clear overnight with lows in the lower and middle 60s. Southerly low level flow develops on the back side of retreating high pressure. This will allow temperatures to warm into the lower 90s across most locations Monday.
Highs today will once again be on the toasty side with temperatures reaching the lower to mid 90s. 99 inches off the 00Z KOHX sounding) and dewpoints in the lower to mid 70s, heat indices will be around the upper 90s to just over 100 degrees through this afternoon. The mid- level ridge that has been to our west will begin to shift east this afternoon and evening, becoming more centered over the Deep South by tomorrow.
Temperatures around the 90 degree mark for most, warmer towards the Oklahoma state line.
423 AM EDT Sun Jul 3 2022 A poorly defined cold front is over northern KY early this morning, with an area of elevated showers and a few thundersorms occurring along it. Slightly drier air will start to make it into our area and allow for cooler temperatures in our northern counties by Monday morning. A large and persistent upper level ridge will dominate over much of the central and southeastern portions of the CONUS through the majority of the period. Meanwhile, several smaller scale waves will travel through the flow over the top of the ridge.
Shower activity will continue to weaken overnight but cloud cover will keep morning low temps in the low-mid 70's. An upper level trough will move through the Mid Atlantic/Northeast on Sunday. NAM dewpoints are several degrees warmer than most other models. Highs will be in the lower 90s with lows in the lower 70s. An upper level ridge will build over the Southeast through mid- week before breaking down late in the week. Bermuda high pressure to the east will direct warm, moist flow into the region keeping PWAT values above normal with values around 2 inches. This pattern of upper level ridging, deep moisture and lack of upper level support suggests a typical summertime pattern of scattered afternoon and evening convection and a few cells lingering into the overnight hours.
427 AM EDT Sun Jul 3 2022 High pressure will maintain dry conditions and slightly above normal temperature through the Fourth of July. Building high pressure will result in dry conditions, light wind, and seasonable temperature. High pressure will provide dry weather and generally comfortable humidity levels through the period. Temperatures on Monday will increase as ridging strengthens across the Lower Mississippi Valley and 500mb heights climb over the region.
The front is then is expected to surge back to the north as a warm front as the day wears on.