Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
WITH SNOW CHANGING BACK TO RAIN ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE PLATTE RIVER VALLEY AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE KANSAS/NEBRASKA BORDER SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF NORTH PLATTE. NOT GETTING A WHOLE LOT OF ACCUMULATIONS THIS AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES FROM AREA METARS ARE ABOVE FREEZING. LATEST WYDOT ROAD TEMPERATURES STILL WELL ABOVE FREEZING THIS AFTERNOON. UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SO THE LOW POP FORECAST LOOKS PRETTY GOOD. 700MB TEMPERATURES CLIMB TO AROUND FREEZING MONDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER- LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES EARLY IN THE PERIOD.
306 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016 An upper low across northwest KS will slowly drift northeast into southeast NE by 12Z SUN. Most of the ascent ahead of the upper low will remain north of the CWA but there may be enough lift for occasional showers and perhaps an isolated thunderstorms. If there are breaks in the overcast highs could be slightly warmer. Tonight, as the upper low moves northeast across the far norther counties of the CWA into southeast NE there could be some residual moisture that wraps around the vertically stacked surface/850mb/H5 low which could cause isolated showers to develop southward towards I-70 after midnight. | By Monday, an upper level trough will be located directly over northeast Kansas bringing slight chances for very light scattered rain showers for most of the area that afternoon.
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM DEL RIO. EXCEPT FOR THE LOW TO MID 80S NEAR THE COAST. THIS FEATURE SHOULD GENERATE SOME CONVECTION ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF MEXICO AND MOVE INTO THE PORTIONS OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS LATE TONIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH DEEP SOUTH TEXAS LATE TONIGHT AND MOVE THROUGH NORTHERN RANCHLANDS AROUND SUNRISE. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE LOWER TEXAS COAST BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOW TO MID 80S. BEFORE SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR ARRIVES.
COOLER ON MONDAY WITH HIGH TEMPS ONLY IN THE UPPER 60S ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY TO LOWER 70S SOUTH.
Storms will move out late this evening as the cold front moves through. The latest model runs have been slowing the passage of this cold front and hanging it up somewhere across south central KY or northern TN.
THE REGION OTHERWISE WAS IN THE WARM SECTOR OF A WEAK WESTERN OHIO VALLEY CYCLONE. WITH ITS WARM FRONT WELL TO OUR NORTH. TROUGHING EXTENDED SW FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE 4-CORNERS. A FLATTENING TROUGH WAS MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS PIEDMONT AND EAST COAST. THE WATER VAPOR VIEW AND VORTICITY FORECAST INDICATED ANOTHER WEAK TROUGH HEADING EASTWARD FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION. ESPECIALLY FROM THE HIGHER RESOLUTION (HRRR/RAP/ARW) WAS INDICATING THE BEST FORCING/LIFT NEAR AND SOUTH OF OUR AREA. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN A WEST TO EAST MANNER MONDAY NIGHT.
The 06z analysis depicts a large, positively tilted upper level trough stretching from the southwest states northeastward to the Great Lakes. Ridging prevails off the southeast coast with light southerly 1000-700 mb mean winds. Afternoon high temperatures will generally range from 85 to 90 across the area, except a couple of degrees cooler right along the coast.
316 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016 06Z SFC DATA HAS A LOW NEAR KSTL WITH AN INVERTED TROF RUNNING FROM THE LOW INTO SOUTHERN NEBRASKA.
WE WILL MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS AT THIS JUNCTURE DUE TO THE LOW CHANCES OF VERY LIGHT PRECIP ACTIVITY.
AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT. INITIALLY LOW PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL LIFT TO THE NE.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/ISOL STORMS WERE WORKING NORTH OF I-70 ALONG A SLOWLY ADVANCING WARM FRONT. MAIN UPPER LOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON WILL FINALLY OPEN/SHEAR EAST THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY EVENING. BLOCKY PATTERN WILL LIKELY PERSIST MID-LATE WEEK AS CUT-OFF UPPER LOWS EVENTUALLY EMERGES OVER THE EASTERN US AND SOUTHWEST US. WITH AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGING IN BETWEEN ACROSS HIGH PLAINS/CANADIAN PRAIRIES.
233 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016 STRONG PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS LOCKED NORTH OF THE US /CANADIAN BORDER EARLY THIS MORNING. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MID AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IS SLOWLY PUSHING EAST THRU THE OHIO VALLEY. LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST THRU THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME REESTABLISHED ACROSS THE WRN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING LOW. AT 500 MB, THE LOW BEGINS TO BUILD INTO HUDSON BAY AS A BROAD AREA OF TROUGHING REMAINS OVER THE REGION.
BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS RETURNS WITH FORCING WITH SHORT WAVE TROUGH. OMEGA MAX CROSSES AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING AHEAD OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH. CLOUDS AND NEUTRAL TEMPERATURE ADVECTION HAVE HELD OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES UP IN THE LOW TO MID 40S.
ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS, ESPECIALLY FOR THE SIERRA AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN NEVADA AND MOHAVE COUNTY, BUT TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE WARMING TREND.
427 AM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016 MORE PRECIP IN THE FORECAST TODAY AS THE NEXT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARDS THE FOUR CORNERS. MAYBE AS MUCH AS 4 TO 6 INCHES BUT ONLY FOR THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. THE CORE OF THIS LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS RELATIVELY WARM AT -20C WHILE H7 TEMPS OF -4C AT 6AM WILL WARM TO -1 TO -2C BY NOON.
330 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016 THE UPPER PATTERN FEATURED AN UPPER LOW IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING INTO QUEBEC AND A RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC INTO ALBERTA. THE TROUGH/RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST TODAY INTO MONDAY. THESE CLOUDS WILL STICK AROUND THIS MORNING BUT SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTH AS THE LOW MOVES FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST. IT WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER TODAY FOR MOST AREAS. IT WILL BE COOLER AROUND LAKE SUPERIOR WITH AN EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUING. MONDAY WILL BE WARMER YET WITH HIGHS FOR MANY AREAS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE SIXTIES. EVEN AREAS CLOSER TO LAKE SUPERIOR SHOULD BE WARMER AS WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE WESTERLY. A BROAD CANADIAN UPPER TROF OVER THE CENTRAL U. THEN A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL FINISH OFF THE PERIOD.
LARGE SCALE LIFT WILL INCREASE ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW OPENS UP AND LIFTS TOWARD THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE BASED STORMS WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY AS A REINFORCEMENT OF DRY AND COOL AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE NORTH WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL DECREASE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON MONDAY AS THE UPPER LOW TRANSLATES SLOWLY NORTHEAST AS DEPTH OF THE DRY/COOL AIR INCREASES.
246 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016 Upper-level low pressure continues to spin across the Central Plains this morning. with latest surface obs showing an inverted trough extending northwest across our area from parent low pressure now centered just north of STL. Fcst models all in general agreement that lgt shwrs will develop later this morning as weak frontogenesis combines with increased forcing for ascent as the upper low inches closer to the area. As this upper low tracks east. This combined with abundant cloud cover should lead to noticeably cooler temps today with many places north of I-70 struggling to reach the 60 degree mark. Overnight lows should fall into the lower to middle 40s across much of the forecast area.
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL THEN PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS WITH A STRONG WARMING TREND MUCH OF THE WEEK.
547 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016 A COUPLE OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL PROVIDE RAIN OVER THE REGION INTO EARLY MONDAY. A DIGGING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL HELP SUPPORT A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG THE EAST COAST.
BEFORE GRADUALLY ENDING MONDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH BRINGING IN DRIER AIR. COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE MONDAY. LARGE TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN U. WITH ANOTHER TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL FORM. COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR SHOULD ALSO MOVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. RUA LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS UNTIL A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE COASTAL WATERS MONDAY NIGHT.
645 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016 STRONG PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS LOCKED NORTH OF THE US /CANADIAN BORDER EARLY THIS MORNING. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MID AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IS SLOWLY PUSHING EAST THRU THE OHIO VALLEY. LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST THRU THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME REESTABLISHED ACROSS THE WRN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING LOW. AT 500 MB, THE LOW BEGINS TO BUILD INTO HUDSON BAY AS A BROAD AREA OF TROUGHING REMAINS OVER THE REGION.
THE HIGH CLOUDS AND A LIGHT SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL SUPPORT A VERY MILD NIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S OVER INLAND AREAS AND UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ALONG THE COAST.
647 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016 A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA INTO DAYBREAK.
318 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016 The upper low over Arizona will open up and its remnants will shear eastward across the plains over the next 24 hours.
629 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016 LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL BUILD IN MONDAY.
Winds will then intensify and become gusty out of the northeast and north Sunday morning as a cold front moves into the area. Model guidance is showing the low clouds to linger into the afternoon hours. Light precip is expected to develop in wake of the front across parts of the PB especially btwn 15Z-21Z then dissipate and redevelop farther s into the Lower Trans Pecos/PB after 06Z/Mon. More seasonal temps are expected Wed-Fri with amplified mid level ridging making a presence.
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 64 79 63 78 / 80 60 40 40 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 63 79 63 77 / 80 70 50 30 OAK RIDGE, TN 63 79 63 77 / 80 60 40 30 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 60 77 59 76 / 90 70 60 20.
334 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016 LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL BUILD IN MONDAY.
431 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016 PASSING WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING RAIN THIS MORNING. THE SURFACE WARM FRONT IS WELL TO OUR SOUTHWEST. BUT A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDS ROUGHLY FROM LAKE ERIE THROUGH LAKE ONTARIO TO FAR NORTHER NEW YORK. WITH COOL STABLE AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS.
434 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016 A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MONDAY AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT.
A RUMBLE OF THUNDER IS POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY AS COOLER AIR ALOFT MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. THIS RAIN WILL EVENTUALLY SPREAD ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA BETWEEN 3Z AND 10Z AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET SLIDES INTO PA AND NY BY 12Z. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE FORECAST FOR MONDAY, AS THE CYCLONE IS SLOW TO PULL EAST OF THE I-81 CORRIDOR DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
556 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016 A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MONDAY AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE EAST OF THE REGION THIS PERIOD. WITH THE HIGHEST READINGS INLAND ALONG THE INTERSTATE 75 CORRIDOR.
THEN WARMER TEMPERATURES. UPPER LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR OUR RAIN THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS WAS DRIFTING THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA THIS MORNING.
613 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016 A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MONDAY AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT.
442 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016 RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO FLATTEN TODAY WITH A SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION AS MULTIPLE PIECES OF ENERGY. OVERRUNNING RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA AFTER SUNRISE THIS MORNING AS A LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT APPROACH.
COULD BE FLIRTING WITH THE FREEZING MARK FOR SOME LOCATIONS BY SUNRISE.
411 AM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016 MORE PRECIP IN THE FORECAST TODAY AS THE NEXT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARDS THE FOUR CORNERS. MAYBE AS MUCH AS 4 TO 6 INCHES BUT ONLY FOR THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. THE CORE OF THIS LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS RELATIVELY WARM AT -20C WHILE H7 TEMPS OF -4C AT 6AM WILL WARM TO -1 TO -2C BY NOON.
BEST FORECAST AT THIS TIME IS SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING AROUND 10-13Z AND THEN ANOTHER ROUND AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH AFTER 23Z-00Z BUT THESE TIMINGS WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE UPDATED. SHOULD SEE SOME LOWER CIGS/LOWER VIS DEVELOP IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND HAVE HANDLED WITH TEMPO GROUPS WITH THE LOWEST VIS EXPECTED AT KMSL DUE TO THE RAIN EARLIER. THE QUESTION THEN TURNS TO WHETHER OR NOT THE LOW CIGS WILL SCATTER OUT TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND LOOKING AT PREVIOUS DAYS. WILL GO AHEAD AND SCATTER IT OUT FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE BRINGING BKN035 BACK IN WITH THE COLD FRONT.
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS THE REGION WILL MAINTAIN DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY.
454 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016 LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER MISSOURI WAS BRINGING WARM AIR ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT TO OUR AREA DURING THE NIGHT AS A DIFFUSE WARM FRONT PASSES NORTH AND EAST. THE WARM FRONT WILL BECOME BETTER DEFINED AS IT MOVES TO OUR NORTH AND EAST TODAY. THE LOW CENTER WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS OH AND INTO PA TONIGHT. SENDING A COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST INTO KY. IT WILL STALL AND ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE WAVE RIPPLING NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT WILL BRING A POTENTIAL FOR MORE SHOWERS/STORMS ON MONDAY. A DIFFUSE WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH OVER THE REGION IS RESPONSIBLE FOR ONGOING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
WEAK LOW LEVEL FEATURE MOVING WEST AROUND THE BASE OF THE RIDGE THIS MORNING IS BRINGING THE OCCASIONAL SPRINKLE OR LIGHT SHOWER IN THE EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE ATLANTIC AND EAST COAST EARLY THIS MORNING. AFTERNOON HIGHS REMAIN WARM IN THE LOW-MID 80S ALONG THE COAST AND UPPER 80S/AROUND 90 FOR THE INTERIOR AND GULF COAST.
MORE ENERGY MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. COLD FRONT JUST TO THE WEST OF THE FCST AREA REMAINS JUST TO THE WEST TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.
INCREASED SKY COVER THIS EVENING AS CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTHWARD AROUND AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER COLORADO AND NEBRASKA. NORTHWEST WINDS OUT OF A HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER EASTERN CANADA HAS SHIELDED MOST OF THE CWA FROM PRECIPITATION. BUT WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE FOR SUNDAY ONLY A FEW FAVORED LOCATIONS WILL SEE READINGS FALL TO NEAR FREEZING.
408 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016 ONGOING ISOLD CONVECTION ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION THIS MORNING LOOKS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH A SLOWLY ADVANCING COLD FRONT LOCATED ALONG A LINE FROM NEAR LUFKIN TO EL DORADO.
TEMPS IN THE LOW 80S NORTHWEST TO UPPER 80S SOUTHEAST EXPECTED.
THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE OF THE HIGH RISK BEING EXPANDED FURTHER. TEMPS IN THE LOW 80S NORTHWEST TO UPPER 80S SOUTHEAST EXPECTED.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS.
HAVE LOWS IN THE LOW 30S NCENTRAL AND W AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S SCENTRAL AND E. A DECAYING MID-LEVEL RIDGE TRACKING SE ACROSS THE CWA ON MONDAY WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT ALONG WITH DIURNAL CUMULUS INLAND.
A ridge of high pressure will continue to build over the Northern Rockies for the next several days. This ridge will bring fairly clear skies with steady warming conditions.
353 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016 ALOFT - A BROAD TROUGH STRETCHED FROM QUEBEC TO BAJA CALIFORNIA. WITH A COUPLE OF EMBEDDED CLOSED LOWS. A RIDGE REACHED FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO REGION TO NEW ENGLAND. SURFACE - LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE OHIO VALLEY TRAILED A COLD FRONT SOUTH TO TX AND HAD A WARM FROM EAST TO THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. HIGH PRESSURE IN THE ATLANTIC EXTENDED ACROSS FL TO MUCH OF THE GULF. THE UPPER TROUGH ALONG WITH THE ASSOCIATED LOW CENTERS LIFTS AND PIVOTS SLIGHTLY. THE COLD FRONT IS DRAGGED EASTWARD. FOR MON THE WEAKENING AND EXITING UPPER RIDGE AND AND AN OVERALL INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL BE CONDUCIVE FOR CHANCE SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCE STORMS. AN AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE WILL FOCUS THE HIGHEST COVERAGE INLAND. AS A POTENT UPPER CYCLONE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS.
A cold front had moved South out of the area with light North winds less than 7 knots and light and variable prior to dawn.
Thunderstorm chances will move in Friday night with cooler and wetter weather for the weekend. This could be a mitigating factor for warmer high temperatures this afternoon, but am expecting these cirrus to shift east through the day and dissipate as they become further disconnected from the parent low around ~140W. Kept high temperatures near previous forecast which already lies on the warmer end of guidance. High temperatures on Saturday will be 20 to 25 degrees colder than Friday as onshore flow dominates and the upper low moves overhead. In addition, numerous rain showers will be around through the weekend as the upper low slowly traverses the Pacific NW.
334 AM PDT FRI MAY 13 2016 Continued warmer than normal today with just a slight cool off. Much Cooler with clouds and a chance of showers or thunderstorms northern mountains over the weekend. High pressure over the west coast bringing mainly fair skies over the forecast area this morning. Upper ridge axis has now shifted inland and currently over the western Great Basin. a low pressure system now over the eastern Pacific is forecast to be over southwest Oregon. Saturday will see much cooler temperatures all areas with daytime highs dropping to near or even a little below normal.
227 AM MDT FRI MAY 13 2016 19Z Water vapor imagery indicated weak short wave ridging in place across the area. although RAP analysis of dynamic tropopause indicates a small scale trough entering into eastern Colorado. While I do not think there will be a strong response to trough in the afternoon, have noticed an area of enhanced cumulus clouds along small convergence zone which may be a reflection of approaching trough. cold front will slide south over the area bringing gusty northerly winds and cooler temperatures.
256 AM MST FRI MAY 13 2016 A high pressure system over the region will result in above normal temperatures through Saturday.
Sensible weather will feature mostly sunny skies with highs topping out in the low 70s. This will be in response to another vort max embedded in the parent trough rotating through the lower Great Lakes. Although we'll dry out fairly early in the day, we'll see partly to mostly cloudy skies and a stiff NW surface wind behind a cold frontal passage. Some spots across the north and east will likely stay in the upper 50s, with spots in the south most likely to hit the low 60s.
656 AM EDT FRI MAY 13 2016 High pressure will move across the area today providing fair weather with highs in the 60s. A cold front will drop rapidly accompanied by showers and possibly a few thunderstorms.
/issued 915 PM CDT THU MAY 12 2016/ Winds are from the northeast this evening in the wake the cold front that move across West Central TX early this morning. However, dewpoints remain in the lower 60s across much of the area, with temperatures primarily in the 70s as of 9 PM. A few showers, perhaps a thunderstorm are possible at KSOA and KJCT overnight, in vicinity of a weak cold front, so kept a VCTS overnight into Friday for KSOA and KJCT. /issued 347 PM CDT THU MAY 12 2016/ (Tonight and Friday) A cold front has moved south of West Central Texas this afternoon. The remnants of the aforementioned cold front will be across our southern counties tomorrow. Highs on Friday will be mainly in the low to mid 80s.
This forcing for ascent will shift sewd through the morning hours along and behind a strong mid May cold front. We expect the showers to skirt northeast Nebraska this morning and into west-central IA by mid morning, but as we go into the afternoon a few isolated thunderstorms will be possible over southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa along the cold front. Cold Canadian high pressure will develop into the northern Plains tonight and allow for temperatures in our CWA to drop into the 30s in most places. Some pressure gradient remains across the region tonight though with the low-level CAA continuing so some wind is expected through the night.
cold front quickly moves south across the forecast area before noon bringing north winds gusting to around 30 mph and slowly decreasing temperatures from north to south through the day. For Saturday night the mid levels of the atmosphere moisten up after midnight while the lower levels remain moist through the night.
Some models want to take most of the convection south of our area with the cold front, while others want to develop elevated storms north of the front. At this point it looks like there may be a lull in the showers and thunderstorms during the day on Saturday as upper level heights rise with a short wave ridge moving over.
A low pressure system on Saturday will bring cooler temperatures and increased wind gusts up to 40 mph.
Cold front pulling off plateau at 07z with much drier air working into the area from the northwest. There will be a cold front to move down in the northwest flow today that will pass through Middle Tennessee late tonight and early Saturday but it looks like it will remain dry as it moves through except for the Upper Cumberland where a sprinkle or brief light shower is possible.
By afternoon, a ribbon of higher dewpoints will get drawn northward ahead of a cold front that will move into far northwest oklahoma by late today. A strong cold front, at least by May standards, will then move south through Oklahoma and into Texas into Saturday.
We could see a few light showers or isolated thunderstorms due to the weak isentropic lift across southern areas, so have retained the low end slight chance PoPs for the southern half of the CWA. Highs will be near normal today, climbing into the lower to mid 80s. A cold front will approach the northern tier of the forecast area after midnight tonight, bringing a chance for showers and thunderstorms, mainly after midnight, and possibly closer to sunrise tomorrow. However, should convection get going, it may speed up the cold front, resulting in showers and thunderstorms develop in our CWA earlier than current model projections.
/ISSUED 201 AM CDT FRI MAY 13 2016/ The cold front that brought the rain earlier is now mostly through the cwa with a weak NW flow behind it. The upper wave supporting the front will move through today with the parent upper low remaining NW of the Great Lakes. Otherwise, today should be dry and sunny with cooler temps in the upper 70s. The previously mentioned parent low will shift southeast tonight and drag a reinforcing cold front through the area overnight and through the day on Saturday. Highs, albeit cooler, will still be able to rise into the middle 70s before the cooler air pushes in during the evening hours. This, combined with clearing skies briefly overnight, will drop lows into the lower 40s to near 50 which is about 10 degrees below normal for this time of year.
Warm and dry conditions are expected today as the upper level ridge amplifies over the area. The next upper level trough moves onshore early Saturday morning with the potential for showers developing mostly in the Oregon zones.
Northwest flow will persist across the region as upper low sits over eastern Canada.
A dirty ridge of high pressure will remain over the area tonight with variable high clouds due to moisture associated with the approaching low. Low level temperature inversions will cause ridges to be warmer and drier than the valleys. Some ridges in the Lower Columbia basin may only cool into the 60s. Scattered mid-level clouds are then expected as a low pressure system approaches from the southwest.
Surface flow from the north will aid in keeping temperatures much cooler than recently seen, with highs in the low 60s. With time to cool before clouds move in, lows are still expected to be in the low 40s, even lower in far northeast Kansas where cloud cover will not be as prominent.