Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
CLOUDS/SPOTTY SHOWER IN THE NORTH WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 70S THROUGH THE HIGHWAY 14 CORRIDOR WILL AREAS ALONG/SOUTH OF I-90 WARM INTO THE MID-UPPER 70S. SHOULD SEE A MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
MEANWHILE THE TIGHT GRADIENT PRODUCED BY THE LANDFALLING STORM AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SERN CONUS WILL PRODUCE WIND SPEEDS AS HIGH AS 15-20 KNOTS. DUE TO THE HIGH RAIN RATES IN THE TROPICAL AIR MASS AND THE ALREADY SATURATED GROUND. THE CFW IS SET TO EXPIRE AFTER THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE AND WILL BE REPLACED WITH AN ADV THROUGH THE NEXT SET OF HIGH TIDES TONIGHT. BEHIND BILL THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE EAST DECREASING POPS TO MORE CLIMO LIKE VALUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS A BIT AND ONSHORE FLOW WEAKENS.
ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE FA TODAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. WENT CLOSE TO GUIDANCE FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 80S.
MAX TEMPS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO GET INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S THIS AFTERNOON. THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SW US SHOULD CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST TONIGHT KEEPING THE CHC OF PCPN TO A MINIMUM.
651 AM CDT MON JUN 22 2015 08Z/3AM SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS WARM FRONT LIFTING SLOWLY NORTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA. ATTENTION TURNS TO AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT COULD POTENTIALLY TRIGGER A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT. ONCE THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL GUST TO BETWEEN 25 AND 30 MPH THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES SOARING INTO THE LOWER 90S. WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER. WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 80S NORTH TO THE UPPER 80S FAR SOUTH.
531 AM MDT MON JUN 22 2015 FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE TIMING THE QUICK MOVING SHORT WAVE TROUGHS ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION ALONG WITH DETERMINING THE POSITION OF THE SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA ALOFT CENTERED OVER NEW MEXICO EXPANDS EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THERE WILL BE A SERIES OF QUICKLY TRAVELING SHORT WAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN THE WESTERLY FLOW THAT ARE EXPECTED TO TRACK MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THAT WILL PROVIDE PERIODS OF THUNDERSTORM ENHANCEMENT.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING HOT AND DRY WEATHER TO THE AREA FOR MUCH THIS WEEK.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND ALLOW MOISTURE POOLED ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO TO MOVE NORTH INTO SOUTHERN AND EASTERN UTAH MIDWEEK. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN BY LATE IN THE WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS THE DOMINANT FEATURE OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. MAXES TODAY WILL BE JUST A BIT COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. THE RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK IN TOMORROW. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASING POSSIBILITY OF SOME HIGH BASED AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE A BIT LESS THAN YESTERDAY AS SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE WEST AS A 700 MB RIDGE AXIS SLOWLY BUILDS INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS. MODELS HAVE HAD A HARD TIME WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE MID LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ACROSS MEXICO AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING THROUGH THE WESTERN CWA. DUE TO THE CLOSER PROXIMITY OF THE LOW AND SLOWER EVOLUTION TO THE WEST.
1015 AM CDT MON JUN 22 2015 UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND COOL POOL ALOFT OVER AREA THIS AFTN WITH THE RESULT OF CLOUDS AND A FEW DEVELOPING SHOWERS. THERE WILL BE A THERMAL RIDGE SO TEMPS SHOULD WARM FROM MONDAYS HIGHS.
932 AM CDT MON JUN 22 2015 TODAY WILL BE A WARM AND MOSTLY RAIN-FREE DAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO EXERT ITS INFLUENCE ON THE REGION. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH THAT BROUGHT THE HEAVY RAIN YESTERDAY IS NOW MOVING WEST ALONG THE RIO GRANDE RIVER VALLEY. A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COULD MOVE INTO OUR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES LATER TODAY.
1014 AM CDT MON JUN 22 2015 HIGH PRESSURE (SURFACE AND ALOFT) SHOULD HELP TO KEEP SOUTHEAST TEXAS'S SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE ON THE LOW SIDE TODAY. /ISSUED 407 AM CDT MON JUN 22 2015/ THRU MIDWEEK WX PATTERN WILL CONSIST OF INVERTED TROF OVER SCNTL TX RETROGRADING INTO MEXICO AS FLAT RIDGE MOVES ESEWD OVER THE TOP OF IT AND INTO THE SE STATES.
ANOTHER VERY HOT DAY IS ON TAP AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT HIGH TO REACH THE UPPER 90S THIS AFTERNOON, WITH HEAT INDICES APPROACHING 105 DEGREES AS DEWPOINTS HANG OUT IN THE LOWER 70S.
AS A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE ATLANTIC STRENGTHENS AND EXTENDS TOWARDS FLORIDA. THEN WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PICK UP TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AS A STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE AREA EXTENDS ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS WATERS TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING ALOFT AGAIN BUT THE AIRMASS WILL BECOME SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE DURING THE AFTERNOON.
NO MAJOR RELIEF FROM THE HEAT AS SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. ANOTHER WARM DAY IN STORE ACROSS THE MOJAVE DESERT ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT A COUPLE DEGREES COOLER THAN OBSERVED YESTERDAY.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY. THE LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS/STORMS IS MUCH LESS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY AS MID LEVEL CAPPING BEGINS TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH THE BUILDING RIDGE GAINING INFLUENCE ON OUR WEATHER. BUT A COLD FRONT WILL BE DROPPING SOUTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY DURING THE DAY. THE FORECAST LONG WAVE PATTERN WILL BEGIN WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE GRADUALLY DAMPENING AS IT HEADS EAST ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WITH RIDGING BECOMING ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. WITH TROUGHING IN THE EAST.
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TREASURE VALLEY IN THE UPPER 80S AND MOUNTAIN VALLEYS IN THE MID 70S. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES LOWER TODAY AND A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER ON TUESDAY WHEN HIGHS IN THE LOWER VALLEYS WILL RETURN TO AROUND 90F.
618 AM CDT MON JUN 22 2015 FOR 12Z TAFS /ISSUED 305 AM CDT MON JUN 22 2015/ WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS CONTINUE AS OF 8Z THIS MORNING WITH TEMPS STILL IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S AND DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 60S TO LOWER 70S. GUIDANCE IS LOOKING A DEG OR TWO COOLER FOR HIGHS TODAY THAN PREVIOUS FORECASTS SO WILL NUDGE THE FORECAST IN THAT DIRECTION. THIS STILL LEAVES HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S.
423 AM PDT MON JUN 22 2015 A warming trend with a small chance of showers and thunderstorms will return for the beginning of the work week, as a weak upper level low moves over the Inland Northwest. Temperatures will remain warmer than normal for this time of year. Weather disturbances running up on the outer edges of weak low pressure in the area are expected to move through Eastern Washington and Northern Idaho at various times through this time interval with the capability of producing some thunderstorms while passing through.
UPPER RIDGING ACROSS OUR AREA WILL HOLD CONVECTION TO A MINIMUM TODAY BUT DO EXPECT TO SEE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE PLATEAU AND IN AREAS GENERALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40 BUT NOT EXPECTING MUCH.
1048 AM CDT MON JUN 22 2015 UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO EXPAND EASTWARD OVER THE MIDSOUTH. TEMPS ARE RUNNING A LITTLE WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. THE WARMER TEMPS COMBINED WITH VERY HIGH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 70S AND HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE APPROACHING 100 DEGREES IN SOME AREAS. EXPECTING HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S. THE UPPER RIDGE IS ALSO NOT STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A SIGNIFICANT CAP YET.
1017 AM EDT MON JUN 22 2015 A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOCATED NEAR THE OHIO RIVER WILL LIFT NORTHEAST AS A WARM FRONT TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY.
722 AM EDT MON JUN 22 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY AND WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY.
1046 AM EDT MON JUN 22 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES TODAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH EASTERN CANADA. THIS SYSTEM WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY THE TRAILING COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY.
1056 AM MDT MON JUN 22 2015 THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT HAS BEEN CENTERED OVER NEW MEXICO WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EASTWARD TODAY. ON TUESDAY MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO CREEP UP FROM THE SOUTH AS THE HIGH CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST.
COOLER TEMPERATURES LOOK GOOD TODAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LAST NIGHT. TEMPS ON TUE WILL BE WARMER WITH HIGHS BACK INTO THE 80S AHEAD OF A PACIFIC FRONTAL PASSAGE TUE NIGHT.
ALONG WITH SCATTERED ACTIVITY ALONG WEAK SURFACE TROF OVER SCTRL GA.
1248 PM EDT MON JUN 22 2015 ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THIS WEEK AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE HOLDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES. THE CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INCREASE FOR THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BUILDS ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MIGRATE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA ALLOWING EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE DESERT SW.
WARMING WILL BEGIN IN EARNEST MIDWEEK AS A FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STARTS TO BUILD NORTHWARD INTO OREGON.
FOG PRODUCT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SOME MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE OZARKS AND OUACHITAS THIS MORNING.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
517 PM PDT SAT AUG 15 2015 A cooler air mass will linger over the Pacific Northwest, with a continued threat of showers and some thunderstorms across the northern counties tonight.
735 PM EDT SAT AUG 15 2015 A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE SOUTHWEST OF THE REGION TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
THE COLD FRONT IS BEGINNING TO WORK THROUGH CORSON COUNTY /WITH BASICALLY STATIONARY PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROF STILL HANGING TOUGH FURTHER EAST FROM APPX KMBG TO KPIR/ CONDITIONS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ARE JUST A TEENY-TINY BIT COOLER. FOR NOW WILL MAINTAIN CHC POPS ALONG COLD FRONT WITH CAP WEAKENING OVER TIME.
536 PM MDT SAT AUG 15 2015 EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOWS RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES WITH A TROUGH ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. UPPER LOW OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SHIFTS EAST WITH FALLING HEIGHTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. COLD FRONT WILL BE AT LEAST APPROACHING THE REGION BY THE AFTERNOON.
COLD FRONT WAS MOVING INTO THE NORTHWEST ZONES OR FROM LANGDON TO DEVILS LAKE. POST FRONTAL COLD ADVECTION SHOULD RESULT IN LOWS 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN THIS MORNING. COOLER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD THROUGH THE FA ON SUNDAY. COLD ADVECTION LEVELS OFF HOWEVER WITH MUCH COOLER AIRMASS IN PLACE EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO RANGE IN THE 70S.
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY STRETCHING TO THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE IS SITUATED ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION EXTENDING NORTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. A HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC WITH SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW MOVING IN ACROSS THE AREA.
AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL HOLD FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH THE REGION WITHIN TROFFING BETWEEN A SOUTHWEST CONUS ANTICYCLONE TO THE WEST. AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST.
745 PM EDT SAT AUG 15 2015 A STRENGTHENING RIDGE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. EXPECT ACTIVITY TO PEAK SHORTLY BEFORE SLOWLY DISSIPATING BY MID TO LATE EVENING AS BUILDING RIDGE CAPS THINGS OFF. TEMPS INTO THE 80S TO AROUND 90F IN THE SE WILL FALL BACK TO GENERALLY THE LOWER TO MID 60S AS HUMIDITY BEGINS TO SLOWLY INCREASE FROM THE WEST. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL DOMINATE SUNDAY GIVING US A VERY WARM DAY WITH JUST A MINIMAL CHANCE FOR A STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. OVERALL RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE EASTERN U.
LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME SW 8-12 KTS BY MIDDAY SUNDAY WITHIN RETURN FLOW AROUND HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED SE OF THE AREA. TONIGHT WEST-EAST ALIGNED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN TONIGHT. COLUMN WILL UNDERGO MINOR WARMING OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS AS THE RESIDENT RIDGE AXIS FLATTENS IN RESPONSE TO HEIGHT FALLS SPREADING EAST ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER.
Max temps on Sat surged hotter than Fri and generally 5-10 degrees above normal as high pressure from the 4-Corners began to build NWwd and into Norcal.
1109 PM EDT SAT AUG 15 2015 A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTROL THE WEATHER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND.
WITH ACTIVITY SPREADING/DEVELOPING FURTHER INLAND TOMORROW AS AN INVERTED TROF MOVES INTO THE NW GULF. AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL HOLD FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH THE REGION WITHIN TROFFING BETWEEN A SOUTHWEST CONUS ANTICYCLONE TO THE WEST. AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST.
1020 PM EDT SAT AUG 15 2015 WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RESIDE OVER THE AREA INTO SUNDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING PRODUCES A CAPPED ENVIRONMENT OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN THE LOWER 90S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT A BIT WARMER AROUND 70 DEGREES. UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE BUILDING INTO THE FORECAST AREA WITH A BROAD TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL US.
840 PM EDT SAT AUG 15 2015 A STRENGTHENING RIDGE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. AS BUILDING RIDGE CAPS THINGS OFF. IT WILL BE MILD AND MUGGY NIGHT WITH FAIRLY UNIFORM DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S AND MIN TEMPS RANGING FROM AROUND 60F NORTH TO THE MID 60S SOUTHEAST. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL DOMINATE SUNDAY GIVING US A VERY WARM DAY WITH JUST A MINIMAL CHANCE FOR A STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. OVERALL RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE EASTERN U.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIMITED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS DRIER AIR SPREADS OVER THE AREA. DUE TO A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION. WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.
SO, WHILE THERE IS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SURFACE/LOW LEVEL FORCING TO SUPPORT CONTINUED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT, THE UPPER TROFFING AND REMNANT INSTABILITY ARE OBVIOUSLY MORE THAN SUFFICIENT. HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING OVERALL, WITH SOME PARCELS HEATING ENOUGH TO DRIVE TSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER NORTHERN IL AND ONE STORM POPPING UP ALONG INTERSTATE 70. TONIGHT'S FORECAST IS VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS AND A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH ACROSS THE NORTHERN MISS VALLEY REGION AND THE MIDWEST. DRY WEATHER IS STILL EXPECTED SUN AND SUN NIGHT AS THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL STILL BE IN CONTROL FOR ONE MORE DAY.
1058 PM EDT SAT AUG 15 2015 A STRENGTHENING RIDGE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. AS BUILDING RIDGE CAPS THINGS OFF. IT WILL BE MILD AND MUGGY NIGHT WITH FAIRLY UNIFORM DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S AND MIN TEMPS RANGING FROM AROUND 60F NORTH TO THE MID 60S SOUTHEAST. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL DOMINATE SUNDAY GIVING US A VERY WARM DAY WITH JUST A MINIMAL CHANCE FOR A STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. OVERALL RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE EASTERN U.
853 PM EDT SAT AUG 15 2015 HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. MODELS NOT PICKING UP ON THE HIGHER DP TMPS CRNTLY BEING REPORTED W OF I95. COOLEST OVR INTERIOR SERN SCTNS WHERE DP TMPS ARE THE LOWEST.
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING OVERALL, WITH SOME PARCELS HEATING ENOUGH TO DRIVE TSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER NORTHERN IL AND ONE STORM POPPING UP ALONG INTERSTATE 70. TONIGHT'S FORECAST IS VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS AND A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH ACROSS THE NORTHERN MISS VALLEY REGION AND THE MIDWEST. DRY WEATHER IS STILL EXPECTED SUN AND SUN NIGHT AS THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL STILL BE IN CONTROL FOR ONE MORE DAY.
AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS WESTWARD AND A DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS. WITH VERY HOT CONDITIONS AT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. MINOR FLOODING WAS REPORTED EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON NORTHEAST OF FLAGSTAFF ALONG THE HIGHWAY 89 CORRIDOR. HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER THE ARIZONA/NEW MEXICO BORDER DURING THE AFTERNOON. LINGERING MOISTURE TRAPPED WITHIN THE HIGH PRESSURE CIRCULATION WILL BRING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTHERN ARIZONA INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
930 PM PDT SAT AUG 15 2015 STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THE VERY HOT WEATHER INLAND SUNDAY.
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 69 89 71 84 / 20 20 30 60 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 67 87 68 84 / 20 20 20 50 OAK RIDGE, TN 67 86 68 85 / 20 20 20 50 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 63 85 64 85 / 20 20 20 50.
AN UPPER TROF ACROSS THE REGION WILL KEEP A CHC OF SHRA/TSRA FOR TAF SITES THRU THE FCST PERIOD. IR/VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND 19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS ALL INDICATED THAT A WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH WAS LINGERING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE SHORT TERM MODELS ARE CONSISTENT AGAIN TODAY IN LIFTING THE WEAK TROUGH TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY. THE STRONG RIDGE IN THE WESTERN U. RESULTING IN A TROUGH BUILDING IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
830 PM EDT SAT AUG 15 2015 23Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD ACROSS MUCH OF THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND POINTS TO THE SW TODAY AND THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. WHILE HIGH PRESSURE WILL STAY IN PLACE NEARER TO THE SURFACE. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL TAKE PRECEDENCE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ESPECIALLY IN THE COOLER VALLEYS AND NEAR BODIES OF WATER.
THIS IS DUE TO BETTER INSTABILITY OVER THE MARINE AREA COMBINED WITH DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND A SURFACE TROF DRAPED ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. AN INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE IS ADVERTISED BY THE HIGH RESOLUTION MESOSCALE MODELS OFFSHORE. WITH DEEP MOISTURE STILL IN PLACE COMBINED WITH GOOD MOISTURE ADVECTION GENERALLY ON THE FAVORABLE SIDE OF THE WEAK UPPER TROF LINGERING JUST TO THE WEST. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS THROUGH SUN WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 70S INLAND AND THE MID 70S CLOSER TO THE COAST. WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS A LITTLE HIGHER ON SUN COMPARED TO TODAY HEAT INDICES WILL BE IN THE MID 90S FOR INLAND AREAS AND THE LOWER 90S NEAR THE COAST.
717 PM CDT SAT AUG 15 2015 UPPER RIDGE STARTING PROCESS OF BEING FLATTENED BY A COUPLE OF WAVES. STILL HAVE A FAIRLY DECENT SCHISM BETWEEN THE HIGH RESOLUTION AND SOME OF THE LOWER RESOLUTION SOLUTIONS AS TO WHETHER THIS WILL ACTUALLY OCCUR SO EARLY. BUT BELIEF NOW IS THAT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS WILL INITIATE CLOSER TO THE HIGH RESOLUTION SET BY 00Z-02Z WEST OF THE CWA. STRONGER UPPER FORCING WILL COME OUT IN THE AFTERNOON ALONG WITH THE START OF BREAKING DOWN THE WARMER TEMPS ALOFT AS WELL.
1057 PM MDT SAT AUG 15 2015 A MODEST AMOUNT OF MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS WEEKEND UNDER A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE TROUGH AROUND 600-630PM MDT. WITH SOME STORMS MOVING OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN INTO THE VALLEYS. AGAIN STORMS WILL MOSTLY BE TIED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN. A LITTLE COOLER OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUN NIGHT. THE RESIDENT HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT WEST THROUGH THE WEEK AS A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE DISTURBANCES PASS FROM WEST TO EAST OVER THE NORTHWEST STATES AND SOUTHWEST CANADA. IT APPEARS THAT THE STRONGEST WAVE WILL BRUSH THE FORECAST AREA MON NIGHT INTO TUE BEFORE CARVING OUT A TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON LATE TUE INTO WED.
1054 PM CDT SAT AUG 15 2015 UPPER RIDGE STARTING PROCESS OF BEING FLATTENED BY A COUPLE OF WAVES. STILL HAVE A FAIRLY DECENT SCHISM BETWEEN THE HIGH RESOLUTION AND SOME OF THE LOWER RESOLUTION SOLUTIONS AS TO WHETHER THIS WILL ACTUALLY OCCUR SO EARLY. BUT BELIEF NOW IS THAT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS WILL INITIATE CLOSER TO THE HIGH RESOLUTION SET BY 00Z-02Z WEST OF THE CWA. STRONGER UPPER FORCING WILL COME OUT IN THE AFTERNOON ALONG WITH THE START OF BREAKING DOWN THE WARMER TEMPS ALOFT AS WELL.
1041 PM EDT SAT AUG 15 2015 CURRENTLY - A BROAD ATLANTIC RIDGE EXTENDS INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. BROAD HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING WESTWARD INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR WINDS BECOMING A MORE UNIFORM GENTLE TO MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE REGION TONIGHT. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST FOR SUNDAY WITH HOT CONDITIONS DEVELOPING. OTRWS MID LVL RIDGE BLDS THROUGH THE PD. ENCROACHING MID LVL RIDGE AND LACK OF GUIDANCE SIGNAL WILL DEFER AN INSERTION AT THIS POINT.
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH EXITS TO THE EAST. WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER WILL RETURN TO WESTERN WASHINGTON WITH A WARMING TREND THROUGH MIDWEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO RISE ALONG WITH HEIGHTS AS A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WELL OFFSHORE BEGINS TO BUILD TOWARD WASHINGTON.
HIGH PRESSURE (1021 MILLIBARS) WAS CENTERED OVER THE CAROLINAS. ATLANTIC RIDGING WAS NOSING WESTWARD INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. A DEEP TROUGH WAS DIGGING SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE WESTERN TENNESSEE VALLEY AND EXTENDING TO THE WESTERN GULF COAST. LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE LOWER 70S WELL INLAND TO THE UPPER 70S AT THE COAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN SITUATED OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH MIDWEEK.
1036 PM EDT SAT AUG 15 2015 A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE SOUTHWEST OF THE REGION TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
728 PM EDT SAT AUG 15 2015 WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RESIDE OVER THE AREA INTO SUNDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING PRODUCES A CAPPED ENVIRONMENT OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN THE LOWER 90S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT A BIT WARMER AROUND 70 DEGREES. UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE BUILDING INTO THE FORECAST AREA WITH A BROAD TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL US.
338 PM CDT FRI AUG 7 2015 UPPER HIGH CONTINUES TO SHIFT FARTHER EAST OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND BY TOMORROW SHOULD BE POISED OVER THE PINEY WOODS OF EAST TX. A WESTERN EXTENSION OF THE UPPER HIGH ALSO LOOKS TO REMAIN INTACT WHICH WILL KEEP AN AXIS OF STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND THE BRUNT OF DIURNALLY-DRIVEN STORMS CONFINED TO OUR WEST. AS THE RIDGE BUILDS BACK TO THE WEST MOISTURE IS PROGGED TO GET TRAPPED BENEATH IT.
THERE APPEARS TO BE AN EXCESSIVE AMOUNT OF CONVECTIVE INHIBITION FROM THE DYNAMIC RIDGE COVERING TEXAS AND LOUISIANA. /ISSUED 641 AM CDT FRI AUG 7 2015/ CLDS WILL BE LIMITED AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT HOLDS THE ATMOSPHERE IN CHECK. THIS COMBINED WITH UPPER HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL BRING ANOTHER HOT WEATHER DAY. GFS SHIFTS UPPER RIDGE INTO ARKLATEX REGION THIS WEEKEND. GFS/ECMWF ARE FORECASTING A MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN WITH UPPER HIGH SHIFTING FURTHER WEST. AND AN IMPRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH DIGGING OVER THE EASTERN U.
312 PM CDT FRI AUG 7 2015 THE WEAK TAIL OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS MN AND WI SET OFF A FEW SPRINKLES ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 30 THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. PLEASANT TEMPS ARE AGAIN EXPECTED WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.
SFC/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING INFLUENCES WILL BUILD ACROSS THE MID STATE REGION THRU 08/18Z. FOG EROSION IS EXPECTED BY 08/13Z-08/14Z WITH RIDGING INFLUENCES PROVIDING NELY SFC WINDS AROUND 5KTS AND VFR/SKC CONDITIONS THRU 08/18Z. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS EASTERN PARTS OF THE MID STATE BY SUNRISE, WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS DIMINISHING ALONG THE CUMBERLAND LATER TONIGHT.
334 PM EDT FRI AUG 7 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS AND COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURES.
642 PM EDT FRI AUG 7 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE MOVING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COASTLINE THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW.
ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS TO THE SOUTH AND HEATING IS LOST. A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL NUDGE SOUTH TO NEAR THE FL/GA BORDER BY SATURDAY AFTN. AREA ON EASTERN SIDE OF STRONG SRN PLAINS UPPER HIGH.