Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
318 AM MDT Wed Aug 10 2022 The center of the ridge of high pressure is currently over northern Colorado with dry air in the mid and upper levels. There is an area of increased moisture that is being wrapped around the base of the ridge just to the south and west of the state. Conditions across the region will be dry with temperatures reaching into the mid to upper 90s across the plains and 70s to 80s in the high country. Some models are hinting at very isolated storms over the higher elevations with southeast flow pushing some weak moisture into the elevated terrain.
550 AM CDT Wed Aug 10 2022 (Today through Thursday) An impulse rotating around the southeastern edge of the Subtropical Ridge along with deepening moisture levels will bring increasing chances of showers and thunderstorms.
519 AM MDT Wed Aug 10 2022 The center of the ridge of high pressure is currently over northern Colorado with dry air in the mid and upper levels. There is an area of increased moisture that is being wrapped around the base of the ridge just to the south and west of the state. Conditions across the region will be dry with temperatures reaching into the mid to upper 90s across the plains and 70s to 80s in the high country. Some models are hinting at very isolated storms over the higher elevations with southeast flow pushing some weak moisture into the elevated terrain.
Models continue to indicate the upper level high drifting southeast into the high plains, which will allow some monsoon moisture to creep back into southern and southwest Wyoming. Gradually increased POP and thunderstorm potential west of I-25 Thursday afternoon and evening, but delayed the highest probabilities until later since models show the upper level high very slow to move out of the area compared to previous model runs.
Temperatures are quickly climbing into the upper 80s and will approach the low 90s over inland locations by noon.
646 AM EDT Wed Aug 10 2022 Enhanced sfc ridging and dry air will support relatively light winds and clear skies today. A cold front is forecast to move across Se Mi between 03Z and 08Z tonight, marked by a wind shift to the north. Broad high pressure maintains a dry air mass over the region today with model soundings showing a 30+ degree dew point depression in the 800mb to 400mb layer. Slight pre-frontal warming ahead of the associated surface cold front aided by diabatic heating will boost surface temps to the lower to mid 80s today.
We will start seeing some movement in the upper air pattern as a trough digs southeastward out of the northern plains on Thursday.
Latest data shows instability today more marginal than the previous two days with highs in the lower to mid 80s.
With the high pressure system to our east showing no sign of major movement from model guidance, monsoonal moisture will continue to be present across northern Arizona.
313 AM MDT Wed Aug 10 2022 Key Messages: 1) Isolated thunderstorms over and near the higher terrain, as well as the Raton Mesa, this afternoon. Upper ridge and drier air mass in place will help provide another day of limited thunderstorm development across southern Colorado.
Low pressure off the coast will continue to slowly trek to the north/northeast through the rest of the work week and move inland over southern British Columbia early this weekend. Ridging aloft will try to build in from the east over Northern California as the low continues to retreat to the north. Cooler interior temperatures will persist for another day thanks to the departing low and wildfire smoke, but inland temperatures are forecast to warm starting tomorrow.
Cold front will sweep south across the CWA late tonight into Thursday morning as upper trough amplifies over the northeastern U. North winds will usher in a re-enforcing shot of cooler and less humid air Thursday.
Some patchy fog was noted with predawn temps generally in the lower and mid 70s. The Mid-South rmns under a subtle NW steering flow aloft thanks to an upper high centered ovr the eastern Rockies. The sfc fnt is progged to slowly drop thru the FA ovr the next 24 to 48 hours as upper lvl ridging blds into the region fm the Plains States. Clouds and rain chcs wl keep high temps in check the next few days, generally ranging fm the mid 80s to the lower 90s.
/Issued 405 AM EDT Wed Aug 10 2022/ The southeast remains entrenched in an incredibly moist airmass, situated on the western edge of the Bermuda High at the surface, and in a weakness between two ridges aloft. 96 The pattern looks to change as the ridge to our west builds and the trough deepens into the SE states.
/22/ Today and Tonight: another cooler than normal day with numerous coverage of storms capable of locally heavy rain is expected across the CWA. The early convection and associated cloud cover will help hold afternoon highs in the mid to upper 80s which is cooler than normal.
445 AM MDT Wed Aug 10 2022 A dry airmass covers the northern plains, as the upper ridge builds over the Rockies. Cannot rule out an evening shower/storm across northeastern WY or northwestern SD behind the low, but dry air will again be the limiting factor.
An upper level ridge over the Northern Rockies will bring warmer temperatures into the High Plains this afternoon. However, a cold front that extends form southeastern Montana across northern South Dakota will keep North Dakota on the cooler side. Increasing heights aloft and a cooler airmass over the northeast will result in a sharp temperature gradient Thursday afternoon. Increasing clouds Thursday is going to reinforcing cooler temperatures for much of the state. The aforementioned upper level ridge is going to settle over the Northern Plains by Thursday.
The slow approach of a frontal zone from the Ohio Valley and falling heights with a mid level trough will add to the forcing, so coverage should be even greater than yesterday.
06z data has high pressure over the western Great Lakes. A cold front ran from western Lake Superior southwest into South Dakota. Otherwise expect quiet and dry conditions today and tonight as high pressure moves into the Great Lakes.
Tonight into Thursday: The cold front will sag quickly south of the area this evening, effectively ending the precipitation chances as drier air arrives from the north. Canadian high pressure will become centered directly overhead Thursday afternoon, keeping quiet conditions in place with very comfortable humidity levels under mostly clear skies.
345 AM MDT Wed Aug 10 2022 High pressure has nudged into the northeast quadrant of the CWA and is progged to anchor over this area through the short term period. Deterministic guidance has also picked up on a wave rotating around the high's center which will supplement orographic lift from this afternoon to extend into late evening hours. Consistency across the spread of deterministic models is poor in relation to the speed and track of the upper level vort maxima; therefore, confidence in pin- pointing the development of enhanced storm activity is on the lower end. Also of note, high pressure displaced to the northeast will shift storm motion from east to west across the southern tier of the CWA, and from southeast to northwest over the central and northern sector.
Better chances of localized Flash Flooding today as cold front approaches. As cold front approaches, showers, storms, and flood threat is getting more focused. For Thursday, cold front will be moving through--ending the precip in the northern areas and starting to bring in cooler, drier air as well.
547 AM CDT Wed Aug 10 2022 After some patchy early morning fog, a mostly sunny and warm day will unfold across central Illinois as afternoon high temperatures top out in the lower to middle 80s. High pressure extending from the southern Great Lakes to the Plains has suppressed a persistent frontal boundary southward to the Ohio River early this morning. Some occasional visby reductions have been observed around KIJX and K3LF: however, IR satellite imagery is not yet showing much fog development beneath the ridge axis. Once any early morning fog dissipates, mostly sunny skies will prevail for the remainder of the day with high temperatures in the lower to middle 80s.
A cold front remains on track to move through southeast Michigan between 02Z and 08Z tonight, marked by a wind shift to the north. Broad high pressure maintains a dry air mass over the region today with model soundings showing a 30+ degree dew point depression in the 800mb to 400mb layer. Slight pre-frontal warming ahead of the associated surface cold front aided by diabatic heating will boost surface temps to the lower to mid 80s today.
258 PM CDT Wed Aug 10 2022 Upper level ridging is in place over the western CONUS with troughing in the eastern portion of the country. A backdoor cold front is due to enter the region late Thursday due to the deepening trough to the east. The atmosphere will be still be dry in the low levels, so the chances of precipitation forming is limited.
1232 PM CDT Wed Aug 10 2022 (Today through Thursday) An impulse rotating around the southeastern edge of the Subtropical Ridge along with deepening moisture levels will bring increasing chances of showers and thunderstorms.
Diminished coverage of showers/storms tonight, but coverage will begin to increase north late tonight and then all areas early Thursday as cold front moves in. Tonight will see convection coverage decrease this evening, but by late tonight the initial cold front will be pushing toward northern areas.
With an upper level trough meandering around over the Southeast and a soupy airmass persisting with PWATs around the 1. Low temperatures tonight are expected to be in the lower to middle 70's inland, with upper 70s at the beaches.
(Tonight through Thursday night) A line of showers and thunderstorms is moving southward through Central Texas along the southern periphery of the subtropical ridge.
314 PM EDT Wed Aug 10 2022 Another cold front will pass Thursday afternoon with scattered showers and possibly an isolated thunderstorm, during an otherwise mainly dry period.
Drier air is attempting to work into far northern counties so expect lows to be cooler tonight, most noticeably north of I-40. (Tomorrow through Wednesday) Deeper drying is expected through Thursday as upper flow becomes more northeasterly as the mid-level ridge axis expands and shifts south across the southern Plains. The center of the Colorado ridge is expected to gradually shift southeast toward the region through the weekend.
408 PM EDT Wed Aug 10 2022 A secondary cold front dropping into the area may produce a shower or thunderstorm on Thursday. Drier and less humid conditions arrive late this week into this weekend as high pressure of Canadian origin builds across the area. Satellite imagery indicates a weak surface wave and associated cold front a slowly moving south this afternoon. The deeper moisture and trough do not clear the area until late this evening so there will likely be some lingering shower and thunderstorm activity across the far south. A mid-level trough moving in through the Great Lakes pushes any remaining deep moisture into the Southeast US. A secondary front associated with the trough quickly slides through the Great Lakes into the Ohio Valley throughout the day.
A stacked low pressure system over Hudson Bay will help steer the weather locally through the end of the week. A trough will rotate around the low this evening helping to push a cold front down through the Great Lakes tonight. There will be a 90 knot upper level jet diving in behind the trough and signals of a weak impulse over WI rippling along the front between 5-10Z during its time over SE MI, so there is some support to keep a slight chance of showers going.
300 PM MDT Wed Aug 10 2022 Convection has been significantly suppressed across the area under the upper high as model soundings show a strong capping inversion over the region. Still watching some CU buildups and can't rule out an isolated evening thunderstorm over the mountains and Raton Ridge area but with drier air over the region these should stay pretty sparse. Otherwise, forecast looks on track with lows dropping into the 40s for the mountains/valleys, and 50s and 60s for the lower elevations.
317 PM CDT Wed Aug 10 2022 Dry and pleasant conditions are expected tonight before a weak cold front moves into the area on Thursday. However, a weak cold front will drop into the area tomorrow. The high pressure currently over the area is limiting any moisture return into central IL, and combined with weak forcing along the front, any showers and storms are expected to be isolated, mainly from late morning through the afternoon. Another area of high pressure will build into the region after the fropa on Thursday. As the high shifts east, southerly winds will return and bring warmer temps back into the area.
Thursday onward, with the high pressure system to our east showing no sign of major movement from model guidance, monsoonal moisture will continue across northern Arizona.
356 PM EDT Wed Aug 10 2022 A secondary cold front dropping into the area may produce a shower or thunderstorm on Thursday. Drier and less humid conditions arrive late this week into this weekend as high pressure of Canadian origin builds across the area. Satellite imagery indicates a weak surface wave and associated cold front a slowly moving south this afternoon. The deeper moisture and trough do not clear the area until late this evening so there will likely be some lingering shower and thunderstorm activity across the far south. A mid-level trough moving in through the Great Lakes pushes any remaining deep moisture into the Southeast US. A secondary front associated with the trough quickly slides through the Great Lakes into the Ohio Valley throughout the day.
Cooler temperatures are expected throughout the week. Of note, short term models want to focus thunderstorms over Mohave County along and north of I-40, the high terrain of Clark County potentially impacting areas such as Mt Charleston and traffic on I-40 or US-95 around Primm, Jean, and Searchlight, and western Lincoln County. This will drive the highest precipitation chances and impacts, so will need to watch this feature closely.
1108 AM MDT Wed Aug 10 2022 Key Messages: 1) Isolated thunderstorms over and near the higher terrain, as well as the Raton Mesa, this afternoon. Upper ridge and drier air mass in place will help provide another day of limited thunderstorm development across southern Colorado.
Most of our western zones should reach the previously forecast high, but areas east of I-49 will likely be cooler. One more good chance for some of those rain cooled starts tomorrow as the upper low flares up again with daytime heating. We can expect another wide range of temperatures with more 90s in many locales, but many of the cooler spots this morning will manage to keep the 80s range for a nice change of pace.
153 PM MDT Wed Aug 10 2022 Current WV analysis shows an upper level low off the PNW and the upper level high over CO. Flow between these two systems are advecting meager monsoonal moisture at the midlevels from the desert SW, up and over the upper ridge and into the Northern Plains. Am issuing Heat Advisories over portions of the western SD plains for tomorrow afternoon where heat indices will reach into the low 100s. There is the potential for isolated showers/storms to develop in NE Wyoming and portions of NW South Dakota behind the low, though dry air may preclude these chances.
With DIA already at 87 F at the time of this discussion, it is possible the high will be in the upper 90s. A degree was added to the high temperature in Denver. The center of the ridge of high pressure is currently over northern Colorado with dry air in the mid and upper levels. There is an area of increased moisture that is being wrapped around the base of the ridge just to the south and west of the state. Conditions across the region will be dry with temperatures reaching into the mid to upper 90s across the plains and 70s to 80s in the high country. Some models are hinting at very isolated storms over the higher elevations with southeast flow pushing some weak moisture into the elevated terrain.
1102 AM MDT Wed Aug 10 2022 A dry airmass covers the northern plains, as the upper ridge builds over the Rockies. Cannot rule out an evening shower/storm across northeastern WY or northwestern SD behind the low, but dry air will again be the limiting factor.
83 Today and Tonight: another cooler than normal day with numerous coverage of storms capable of locally heavy rain is expected across the CWA. The early convection and associated cloud cover will help hold afternoon highs in the mid to upper 80s which is cooler than normal.
10 inches of rain for the MN Buffalo Ridge by mid day. Stayed cooler (70s to near 80 degrees) with temperatures in southwest MN Thursday due to greater likelihood for increased cloudiness.
(This evening through Thursday Night) The short-term continues to maintain the chances for showers and thunderstorms, as the remnants of a weak low pressure remain situated over the region. Highs tomorrow should range in the low-90s to upper-80s. Unfortunately, overnight cloud cover should keep most areas insulated, so look for lows tonight and tomorrow to drop down into the low to mid-70s.
After a brief instance of cooler than normal temperatures today, expect a rebound to near or slightly above normal on Thursday.
This wave will be entrenched in monsoonal moisture currently feeding into it underneath an upper ridge over the Intermountain West, as seen on GOES water vapor imagery and sampled by polar orbiting microwave imaging. That being said, there is also strong consensus within guidance of mesoscale forcing, potentially strong, via fgen and upright instability in the vicinity of its leading warm front.
Currently: High pressure still sits over the Rockies, leading to a ridge over the northern United States. The pressure gradient is tighter over the southwestern part of the state where air is getting squeezed between the high pressure to the northeast, and low pressure in Wyoming. Thursday: This band of rain will progress northeast through the day, the highest chance of rain will be in the northwest at about 30 percent.
Discussion: Water vapor imagery this afternoon shows a ridge axis over the Rockies and Plains States with a trough off the Pacific Northwest Coast and another traversing Hudson Bay. For the next few days the ridge will be the dominating our weather locally, keeping any threat of storms well away from eastern Kansas and Missouri.
A weak mid level trough is centered over the Mid- South as well. Lows will mainly be in the lower 70s. The weak mid level trough will continue to weaken as it pushes across north MS.
Many of the high- resolution models also show convective inhibition becoming quite low over southeast Oklahoma late this afternoon and so expect some isolated storms to develop this afternoon farther east, and we may be seeing this already with new development near Ardmore/Healdton. The dewpoint depressions are not as high as we have seen in recent days since the lingering showers and clouds have kept temperatures a little lower, but the low- level air is still dry enough to support strong winds from any the storms.
Otherwise overnight we could again get a low level stratus deck or patchy fog given this environment/setup, then Thursday will be possibly a similar story to today and previous days with the regime staying in the high PWATs and decent SBCAPE near 2500 J/kg.
Scattered SHRA/TSRA will be possible over Cntrl/Srn terminals on Thurs ahead of a slow moving cold front. Some patchy fog was noted with predawn temps generally in the lower and mid 70s. The Mid-South rmns under a subtle NW steering flow aloft thanks to an upper high centered ovr the eastern Rockies. The sfc fnt is progged to slowly drop thru the FA ovr the next 24 to 48 hours as upper lvl ridging blds into the region fm the Plains States. Clouds and rain chcs wl keep high temps in check the next few days, generally ranging fm the mid 80s to the lower 90s.
314 PM CDT Wed Aug 10 2022 Upper ridge is currently centered over the Central Rockies with the weak upper impulse that was over the Ozarks the last few days, now approaching the Tennessee Valley. At the surface, storms are developing near and south of the Red River along a very weak surface boundary which is also in the highest PW axis. Not much is expected to change through Thursday with the upper high shifting very slowly east. By Fri afternoon the upper high will be situated over eastern CO/western KS which will allow warmer 850 temps to also shift east.
Another cold front remains posed to drop southwards across the area late tonight into Thursday and could bring a few isolated showers/sprinkles. If planning on visiting SE Lake Michigan Beaches on Thursday be advised that winds behind the morning cold front will cause waves to increase into the 3 to 6 ft range and result in dangerous swimming conditions that will last well into the nighttime hours. The real relief the cold front brings is lowered dewpoints and overnight lows Thursday night dropping into the lower 50s.
Issued by National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 222 PM CDT Wed Aug 10 2022 Tonight through Thursday night: Weak upr lvl trough axis draped across the Lower MS River Valley has been a focus for slow-moving shower/thunderstorm activity this afternoon. As the trough axis continues to drift south by Thursday, better rain/storm chances will shift south and east toward the Gulf Coast.
A favorable flow pattern for daily thunderstorms will persist through the weekend as the upper high remains centered near the Four Corners region. Water vapor shows two weak troughs over northwest Sonora and Chihuahua. The trough in Chihuahua will slowly move northward providing a little extra support for storms with another active day expected. /issued 310 AM MST Wed Aug 10 2022/ More of the same can be expected weather wise today as deep moisture remains in place and an inverted trough tracking westward moves closer to the area. Otherwise, still looking at an active thunderstorm day as the approaching inverted trough helps enhance rain chances this afternoon and evening. Otherwise, the upper high will shift farther NE of the Four Corners region and remain centered there through the rest of the week.
Currently: High pressure still sits over the Rockies, leading to a ridge over the northern United States. The pressure gradient is tighter over the southwestern part of the state where air is getting squeezed between the high pressure to the northeast, and low pressure in Wyoming. Thursday: This band of rain will progress northeast through the day, the highest chance of rain will be in the northwest at about 30 percent. Temperatures will range drastically from the upper 70s in the northeast, to the mid 90s in the southwest, cooler in the rain band.
Tonight and Thursday A cold front extended roughly from AUW-MNM, and was shifting south. Along and ahead of the front, temperatures were in the lower to middle 80s, and dew points were in the middle to upper 60s, resulting in SBCAPE of 1000-1500 j/kg. Rest of Tonight into Thursday: Canadian high pressure will bring cooler and much drier air to the region, along with mostly clear skies.
148 PM MDT Wed Aug 10 2022 The area is mainly under the influence of an upper ridge that extends from the central Rockies to the central and southern Plains state. This is being pulled northward by an upper low off the Pacific NW coast.
The high clouds have been staying north of the International border. An upper level ridge over the Northern Rockies will bring warmer temperatures into the High Plains this afternoon. However, a cold front that extends form southeastern Montana across northern South Dakota will keep North Dakota on the cooler side. Increasing heights aloft and a cooler airmass over the northeast will result in a sharp temperature gradient Thursday afternoon. Increasing clouds Thursday is going to reinforcing cooler temperatures for much of the state. The aforementioned upper level ridge is going to settle over the Northern Plains by Thursday.