Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
409 AM CDT SAT AUG 20 2016 A pre-frontal trough was working its way out of the Rolling Plains as of this writing. As of 3 AM, the cold front was rapidly pushing southward into the central TX Panhandle. The cold front should be through most of the South Plains by daybreak, bringing one last shot at precipitation. To our west, a ridge will be present from NW Mexico up the spine of the Rockies.
Low pressure is developing over eastern Iowa, along a frontal boundary that is interacting with a trough diving across the Central Plains this hour. Latest ARW/NMM WRF's both show some scattered precip the rest of the morning hours, followed by another round later this afternoon and then a third closer to the cold front.
418 AM EDT Sat Aug 20 2016 Scattered showers and thunderstorms today, then a cold front will bring better rain chances tonight into Sunday. Moisture will continue to increase today in southerly flow ahead of an approaching cold front. Area of low-level convergence would likely place a better chance for afternoon showers and storms over the ridges, so highest PoPs will be confined to those locations. The main player remains the mid-level trough moving from the upper Midwest across the Great Lakes, and it's leading cold front.
The weather this weekend will be quite nice as a ridge of high pressure builds over the Northern Rockies. Temperatures this afternoon will run about normal, with highs in the low to mid 80s for many western Montana valleys, and low 90s for those in the lower valleys of north-central Idaho.
629 AM EDT Sat Aug 20 2016 Scattered showers and thunderstorms today, then a cold front will bring better rain chances tonight into Sunday. Moisture will continue to increase today in southerly flow ahead of an approaching cold front. Area of low-level convergence would likely place a better chance for afternoon showers and storms over the ridges, so highest PoPs will be confined to those locations. The main player remains the mid-level trough moving from the upper Midwest across the Great Lakes, and it's leading cold front.
with additional SHRA seen NW of the state along and ahead of an approaching cold front. This cold front will drop SE into the state by late this afternoon and into the evening hrs. the cold front will be along or just south of the I- 40 corridor. and on Sun as NRLY flow will be seen behind the cold front.
357 AM EDT SAT AUG 20 2016 A pressure ridge will extend from the Atlantic westward into the Gulf of Mexico through Sunday. North of the ridge, a pressure trough and associated moisture will be in the forecast area. A cold front will move into the area Sunday night. Temperatures will remain above normal ahead of the cold front through Sunday.
343 AM EDT SAT AUG 20 2016 A strong cold front will move through the forecast area early Sunday morning. High pressure will build over the region for the start of the week. Warm air advection will occur today in advance of an approaching cold front. Dew points in the lower 70s will creep northward into the county warning area.
Meanwhile to the north, more storms are forming along and north of a cold front approaching the northern Big Country. (Sunday through Saturday) The wet and cool pattern continues into Sunday as the remnant cold front lingers across the area.
Bumped forecast highs to around 80 degrees today and then back into the lower 90s on Sunday. The only shot looks to be late Sunday afternoon and evening over the southwest mountains as the flow backs to the west, and a weak combines with some pacific moisture to develop some cu over the higher terrain. as models are beginning to bring a bit more moisture in to the area as upper level low slides across southern Canada.
137 AM EDT Sat Aug 20 2016 Scattered showers and thunderstorms today, then a cold front will bring better rain chances tonight into Sunday. Moisture will continue to increase today in southerly flow ahead of an approaching cold front. Area of low-level convergence would likely place a better chance for afternoon showers and storms over the ridges, so highest PoPs will be confined to those locations. The main player remains the mid-level trough moving from the upper Midwest across the Great Lakes, and it's leading cold front.
147 AM EDT Sat Aug 20 2016 Scattered showers and thunderstorms today, then a cold front will bring better rain chances tonight into Sunday. Moisture will continue to increase today in southerly flow ahead of an approaching cold front. Area of low-level convergence would likely place a better chance for afternoon showers and storms over the ridges, so highest PoPs will be confined to those locations. The main player remains the mid-level trough moving from the upper Midwest across the Great Lakes, and it's leading cold front.
421 AM CDT SAT AUG 20 2016 Showers and thunderstorms have continued moving across the Panhandles overnight in connection with the front and the upper level trough. As the trough moves east and the front pushes further south into Texas, the precip will move away also. A push of dry air in the mid levels will keep the area dry for Sunday as ridging begins to build in.
High pressure will move into the forecast area today, resulting in a drying trend.
342 AM EDT SAT AUG 20 2016 A pressure ridge will extend from the Atlantic westward into the Gulf of Mexico through Sunday. North of the ridge, a pressure trough and associated moisture will be in the forecast area. A cold front will move into the area Sunday night. Temperatures will remain above normal ahead of the cold front through Sunday. Models are in good agreement that a cold front will move into the area Sunday night and stall across the Southeast. High pressure ridging in from the north and drier air behind the front suggests rainfall potential below climatology with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s.
122 AM EDT SAT AUG 20 2016 Aviation A strong cold front will push across Southwest Michigan Saturday evening. Behind the front cooler and less humid air will arrive.
The upper level low that brought thunderstorms to the Sierra yesterday has moved southward and is currently off the coast of Southern California. A weak trough will approach our area Sunday bringing a few degrees of synoptic cooling and near normal temperatures to most of our area.
438 AM CDT SAT AUG 20 2016 At the sfc, high pres continues to ridge west acrs the nrn Gulf coast, resulting in lt s-sw winds. Aloft, an upr ridge extends acrs nrn Mexico into the nrn Gulf, with swly winds on the nrn flank of this ridge streaming Pacific moisture over the region per the latest UA analysis and WV imagery.
Band of deeper moisture from near Del Rio to Corsicana with dry air over the extreme Northwest Gulf and given the low level flow this drier air should limit rain chances today through at least noon and may even keep it relatively dry through late afternoon. Temperatures should be as warm as yesterday if not a degree or two warmer today. Cold front stalls in North Texas tonight and outflow boundary pushes south probably stalling just north of the area or just into the northern counties. The higher rain chances tonight in the northwest expand into more of SETX Sunday with low level axis shifting south across the area with a band of 2.
117 AM EDT SAT AUG 20 2016 High pressure will build across the region tonight through Saturday then move east Sunday.
A typical summertime pattern of upper level ridging and a weak surface pressure pattern will continue to dominate the southeast states today. For today's PoP distribution, the guidance indicates that the highest PWAT values will be across the northwest part of the area this afternoon with PWATs there climbing to near 2 inches. The CAMs are also showing the greatest coverage of afternoon convection in that area, so the official forecast put the highest chance of showers and thunderstorms in southeast Alabama and adjacent areas today at around 50%. The lowest chance is across the southeast big bend at around 20%. High temperatures are expected to reach the low to mid 90s with peak heat index values mostly in the lower 100s.
Main forecasting challenge in the near term revolves around precipitation chances tied to a secondary cold front this evening. The boundary and associated precipitation threat is shown to cross the cwa this evening as an upper trough digs south across the northern plains. East of the highway, lower 50s will prevail owing to cloud cover. Otherwise high pressure builds behind the front bringing dry and cool conditions for Saturday. The latest guidance supports highs in the lower to mid 70s across the cwa. Upper trough moves east and next system moving into Pacific northwest will sharpen ridge through northern plains with some 90s on Sunday and dry.
After a cool morning across northeast Montana with temperatures in the 40s to low 50s, expect afternoon highs to recover well into the 70s with an abundance of sunshine thanks to a building upper level ridge of high pressure.
354 AM CDT SAT AUG 20 2016 Precipitation has remained just east and north of the area overnight tonight, though the much advertised cold front continues its push southward through the Texas Panhandle and eastern New Mexico. Temperatures Sunday in the wake of the front will be well below normal, with highs in the 80s for much of the area, and even some upper 70s across the higher terrain. Moist southeasterly surface flow as well as the diffuse boundary will maintain precipitation chances across the area on Sunday, with guidance indicating the best chance across higher terrain and adjacent plains to the west, as well as across the Lower Trans Pecos and in the Big Bend Area.
343 AM CDT SAT AUG 20 2016 Canadian high pressure located over Wyoming builds through Nebraska today and settles over Kansas tonight. The models show the clouds moving east through ND but could move overhead tonight as high pressure moves into KS.
Last nights upper air plots showed an elongated upper trof extending from northern Arizona west across southern California.
For today, an upr level ridge wl centered ovr nrn CA, while an upr low sits ovr MN. Some light snow wl again be possible ovr the higher mtn peaks. With cooler air in place today, high temps wl be around 10 degrees below average over the sern plains, and around 5 degrees below average in the San Luis Valley. Overnight low temps should be slightly below average, with readings mostly in the 50s ovr the ern plains with 40s ovr the high valleys.
High pressure over the southeastern states will continue to drift southeast. Meanwhile, a cold front is poised to push across Central Indiana on Saturday Afternoon and Saturday Night.
Forecast challenges deal with PoPs today, near freezing temperatures tonight, followed by increasingly critical fire weather conditions Sunday. Cold front just went through Cheyenne about a half hour ago. MOS guidance continues to show lows at Laramie down near freezing on both the MAV and NAM with clearing skies and light winds.
331 AM CDT SAT AUG 20 2016 Another afternoon of showers and thunderstorms expected today as high pressure to the east and a weak cold front to the north allow for ample moisture to flow in from the Gulf.
A deep and well stacked subtropical ridge complex persists across the Western Atlantic and the Gulf of Mexico. An elongated upper level trough stretches from the ENE to WSW through the Florida Keys and remains readily apparent on water vapor imagery.
307 AM CDT SAT AUG 20 2016 Secondary cold front currently moving through the area has some isolated shower activity which may linger a few more hours. Drier and cooler air will continue to filter into the area today with highs in the mid to upper 70s. High pressure will build into the region behind the front and track over central KS tonight. Low temperatures will dip into the mid to lower 50s tonight as the high pressure tracks through the area. Tomorrow return flow will cause slightly warmer highs in the lower to mid 80s. Sunday remains on the cool side with highs in the lower 80s as upper trof continues to move into the northeast and becomes more zonal over the Central Plains through the day.
The highest coverage of storms this afternoon is expected to be near DHN. A typical summertime pattern of upper level ridging and a weak surface pressure pattern will continue to dominate the southeast states today. For today's PoP distribution, the guidance indicates that the highest PWAT values will be across the northwest part of the area this afternoon with PWATs there climbing to near 2 inches. The CAMs are also showing the greatest coverage of afternoon convection in that area, so the official forecast put the highest chance of showers and thunderstorms in southeast Alabama and adjacent areas today at around 50%. The lowest chance is across the southeast big bend at around 20%. High temperatures are expected to reach the low to mid 90s with peak heat index values mostly in the lower 100s.
Forecast area is under the influence of the eastern flank of a mid/upper level high pressure ridge near 130w, which will continue to give dry conditions through Saturday afternoon.
However, more showers and storms with a weak cold front will expand in coverage once again by noon and continue into the evening hours. Better chance of heavier showers and storms will develop across the area SAturday afternoon as a weak cold front moves into the area. While the showers and storms across our northern counties should dissipate this evening, redevelopment is possible toward morning with the approach of a weak cold front. The weak cold front will move south across the Big Country during the morning, reaching Interstate 20 by midday.
317 AM MDT SAT AUG 20 2016 Overnight water vapor imagery loop showed upper trough progressing east across the central Dakotas and Nebraska with subsident northwest flow across Wyoming and western Nebraska. Dry northwest flow aloft on backside of upper trough to the east will promote ample sunshine and moderating temperatures. Highs Sunday will rise into the 80s, with 60s and 70s for the high country. Upper ridge will continue to progress east across the Great Plains, with a potent upper low moving into southern British Columbia and Alberta.
320 AM CDT SAT AUG 20 2016 Scattered showers/thunderstorms will continue this morning ahead of cold front which will move into northeast Oklahoma later this morning.
/ISSUED 327 AM CST Thu Dec 1 2016/ After a cold and dry start to the morning with most locations in the 30s, upper level high pressure will build to the east today and low level warm air advection will ensue. The increase in low level moisture will yield a warmer night with lows generally in the 40s. Big changes will begin to take shape across the western CONUS Friday with the development of a strong low pressure system. Large scale upward vertical motion will increase Friday night as a 130 knot jet sets up on the east side of a deep upper low centered over Northern Mexico.
220 PM EST Thu Dec 1 2016 High pressure continues to build into the region behind yesterdays frontal system that has moved off the eastern seaboard. Mostly clear skies expected to continue through the short term as this high pressure ridge dominates the weather pattern for the next few days. A cooler airmass has moved in over the region with temps tonight expected to dip down into the 30s across most of the area.
/Issued 456 AM CST Thu Dec 1 2016/ Satellite and water vapor imagery continues to show large scale trough centered over the Great Lakes. We still feel the lingering affects of the cold air from this trough, although most of the cold air associated is now mainly over the Pacific northwest to the northern plains and into the midwest.
Weak cold front continues to slowly move SW FL this afternoon with only a few isolated showers ahead of the frontal cloud band as seen in VIS satellite and radar imagery. Models are in good agreement through the weekend showing high pressure to our north providing dry conditions with a gradual warming trend. This part of the forecast hinges on what happens to an upper-level cut-off low that is forecast to be over the Gulf of California this weekend.
Sunny skies with cooler than normal temperatures are expected today. Today Through Friday Night 09z subjective surface analysis indicates a ridge axis from northeast Louisiana, to east central Texas.
with light winds, no clouds and temps falling into the low to mid 20s across far northeast OK and low to mid 30s farther south. Temps will be a few degrees warmer today with full sun. Upper low becomes cut off near Baja by Friday night.
The low clouds in northern MO have kept temperatures slightly cooler there than the rest of MO but the clouds are expected to move northeast out of MO tonight giving is mostly clear skies tomorrow. Temperatures the five days or so will be near normal with highs ranging from the low 40s to low 50s and lows ranging from the mid 20s to low 30s.
Moisture will work its way back into South Texas tonight through Friday as an inverted trough and warm front begin to develop and slide northward from the western Gulf.
These clouds are associated with a weak cold front which is currently passing through central Utah.
306 PM CST Thu Dec 1 2016 A quiet weather pattern will persist through tonight and tomorrow with generally zonal H300 flow in place tonight, transitioning to more southwesterly flow tomorrow as a broad longwave trough moves into the western CONUS. All operational models continue to spread moisture north across the southern plains northeast of an upper low over northern Mexico and breaking out precipitation by Friday afternoon south of Kansas.
Have therefore trended twd the cooler guidance today across the region. Despite increasing cloud cover expected, have trended twd cooler guidance overnight. Highs will be near normal in the low 40s to low 50s.
338 PM CST Thu Dec 1 2016 The synoptic pattern early this afternoon features a broad trough across much of the CONUS. Heights will build over the South and Midwest on Friday as ridging re-establishes itself across the Southeast. Mainly a temperature/cloud forecast this period as the aforementioned ridging aloft keeps the region precipitation free through the period. Latest indications are that areas along the I-70 corridor will likely be cloud-free the longest, thus have gone a bit cooler in these areas (in the mid 20s). With building heights aloft, expect temperatures a bit warmer than today, with highs in the mid 40s to lower 50s.
Current surface analysis shows weak high pressure over southern SK into the northern high plains.
Temperatures overnight may fall below freezing as dew points lower and boundary layer moisture dries out.
Compared to 24 hours ago, most areas are running 4 to 8 degrees cooler (although Napa is running 12 degrees cooler). Because of the cloud cover, current temperatures are running warmer than yesterday at this time with readings mainly in the 40s, with a few locations in the lower 50s still. An upper level ridge building over the Eastern Pacific is forecast to gradually move eastward over California by the end of the week.
Can't rule out some wet snow or sleet pellets where evaporative cooling is effective in lower freezing levels and sfc temps, but impact is expected to be nil.
1130 AM CST Thu Dec 1 2016 H5 analysis from earlier this evening, had closed low pressure centered over southwestern Wisconsin with a trough of low pressure extending south into the Ohio valley. East of the trough, high pressure was centered over the Bahamas with a ridge extending north into the Canadian Maritimes. West of the low and trough, a high amplitude ridge extended from Montana into northern Saskatchewan. A decent pressure gradient extended east of the high from North Dakota into Minnesota. This will hold highs back into the lower 30s. This will help to hold lows in the lower 20s.
323 PM CST Thu Dec 1 2016 A weak mid level ridge is currently over the region providing fair weather today and for tomorrow as well.
Thus, any localized area of weak forcing pivoting around the upper low to the east will result in a combination of either sprinkles and/or light snow. Minot area is experiencing some light freezing drizzle which is headed south, so will have to watch to see if that area holds together over time.
Currently, temperatures are in the lower 40s east of I-65 and mid forties further west. This should keep dewpoints from tanking this afternoon, in the lower 30s today. Brief ridging on Friday will allow for slightly warmer temps with highs near seasonal norms.
357 PM CST Thu Dec 1 2016 (Tonight and Friday) An upper trough will deepen over the southwestern CONUS tonight, with a closed low developing over southwestern Arizona Friday afternoon. As a result, temperatures will be warmer than last night, with lows expected to be in the 40s. With isentropic lift and the potential for saturation in the low-levels and a warm air advection pattern, the models hint at patchy drizzle/fog developing in the morning. (Friday through next Thursday) The mid and upper level low pressure circulation path is on track with global forecast models and is currently seen on water vapor imagery moving through Southern California.
359 PM EST Thu Dec 1 2016 Low pressure will move east into the Canadian Maritimes tonight.
Stuck toward the lower end of model temps for tomorrow given the expected clouds.
220 PM CST Thu Dec 1 2016 At 2 PM, a closed low was located over eastern Ontario and western Quebec. With this low moving away from the area, much of the area has been dry this afternoon. The only other issue tonight looks to be the low temperatures. Due to this, opted to raise the low temperatures closer to these values tonight.
1103 AM CST Thu Dec 1 2016 Some light precip/drizzle will remain possible through the morning within cyclonic flow aloft, but coverage should gradually decrease as the upper low pulls away.
Dry conditions will continue across western Kansas today and tonight as a prevailing zonal flow aloft persists across the Western High Plains along with much drier air in the lower/mid levels. Near normal temperatures are likely again today with little change expected to the general air mass across the high plains of western Kansas. Precip chances return Friday night into the early part of the weekend as a deepening upper level trough of low pressure across the Great Basin drops southward into northern Mexico.
110 PM EST Thu Dec 1 2016 Cooler high pressure to end the work week.
323 PM EST Thu Dec 1 2016 A departing cold front will push off the Southeast coast today. High pressure will build over the Eastern U.
1125 AM CST Thu Dec 1 2016 Quiet short-term forecast as the upper low over the Great Lakes region continues to slide off to the northeast. Any lift generated by the upper low and contributing to flurries yesterday has also shifted far enough out of the region that even where stratus lingers today in northeast MO, should not see any additional flakes fly.
302 PM CST Thu Dec 1 2016 Short term concern for short term is threat for light snow/freezing drizzle overnight. Current surface analysis indicates scattered light snow with some patchy freezing drizzle reported across the mn portion of the forecast area with only light snow in NW WI. This situation will continue though most of the overnight which may cause the scattered light snow/patchy freezing drizzle across most of the region.
354 PM CST Thu Dec 1 2016 Upper-level low finally pulling well east through the Great Lakes, but lingering confluence zone back through the Northern Plains between shearing upper trough and the main westerlies through the Central Plains. Clouds will hang tough once again, and with a bit drier and cooler airmass should be able to see lows a couple degrees cooler than last night. Weak surface ridging will settle across the area through Friday, allowing some drier air to filter in on north to northwest flow. Highs with the lesser wind and slow erosion of clouds should remain mainly in the lower to mid 30s.
High pressure and a dry airmass is building into the area behind a cold front. Expect mostly clear skies tonight with overnight lows ranging from the mid to upper 30s across the northwest to the low to mid 40s along the coast.