Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
203 AM EDT Thu Apr 20 2017 A cold front draped across the northern Ohio Valley in an east- west orientation will lift northward overnight as a warm front. A cold front with associated shower and thunderstorm activity will move through the area late Thursday afternoon through early Friday morning.
A cold front will lead to widespread showers and isolated thunderstorms across the region today. Gusty westerly winds will accompany the cold front and shower activity, those on Flathead Lake should prepare for increased winds and waves in the afternoon. Showers will become primarily focused on the higher terrain tonight with only an occasional shower in the valleys. By Friday morning, a weak backdoor cold front will help to focus precipitation in the Glacier Park area and along the Divide, with Marias Pass perhaps seeing a quick shot of slushy snow.
A series of waves in the form of ridge trough couplets will make their way across the region. the first ridge runs over Wyoming, Montana and southern Alberta while the first trough runs from Idaho to British COlumbia. This is expected to burn off quickly in the morning as the ridge passes over from the west and leads to partly cloudy to clear skies by the afternoon. The ridge should begin to wane and retreat overnight. Friday to Friday night: trough will move first into western and then into central Montana breaking down the stable profile and generating enough lift for rain showers across the region.
359 AM EDT Thu Apr 20 2017 Low pressure will track NE across the Central Lakes this evening forcing a strong cold front across the forecast area. as high pressure builds into the Great Lakes.
WV bands show relatively drier/warmer air, with cirrus expanding southeast into western KY and Indiana. It'll be a warm one also, with highs in the low to mid 80s. The low is forecast to track east through the Great Lakes, dragging a cold front southeast through the forecast area tonight. Late timing of the cold front also diminishes severe weather potential, as instability will be waning after 00z. Convection just ahead of the cold front should arrive in our southern Indiana counties around 20-22z and push southeast into northern Kentucky during the evening hours. Friday looks cooler with highs ranging from the mid 60s to low 70s. Rain chances continue, because the cold front only makes it as far as the Tennessee border.
As divergence moves in over the western mountains ahead of the next trough, precip chances will be on the increase this afternoon.
452 AM EDT Thu Apr 20 2017 An approaching cold front will bring showers and thunderstorms through tonight, followed by cooler temperatures into the weekend. This will help increase low level instability, and with increasing shear with the approach of a mid level closed low over the Great Lakes will help fire showers and thunderstorms with an approaching front. Cold front crosses region toward sunrise Friday morning as cooler and drier air works southeast behind the front.
A short wave trough entering the Pacific Northwest will bring showers and thunderstorms to the region today. Thunderstorm development will be along and ahead of the trough axis which swings through the area this afternoon. Showers dissipate this evening as the trough moves east. By Friday morning, only a slight chance of showers exists over northeast Valley county, otherwise conditions are dry and cool and breezy as an upper ridge builds in from the Pacific.
Further to the east, the cloud cover will hold temperatures a few degrees above freezing. Some of these plants can take a light frost, but if we drop below freezing it could affect some of the tender plants.
317 AM EDT Thu Apr 20 2017 An approaching cold front will bring showers and thunderstorms through tonight, followed by cooler temperatures into the weekend. This will help increase low level instability, and with increasing shear with the approach of a mid level closed low over the Great Lakes will help fire showers and thunderstorms with an approaching front. Cold front crosses region toward sunrise Friday morning as cooler and drier air works southeast behind the front.
The remnants of a weakening long wave trough is now moving onshore. A new long wave trough has already set up offshore between 150W and 160W. It has pumped up ridge ahead of it. and that ridge will build into the west coast tonight into Friday. This will make for a dry and much warmer day Friday. The ridge will break to the east of the area Friday evening and the flow aloft will turn southwesterly again.
Dry conditions return by tomorrow along with a warming trend into Friday as high pressure builds aloft.
Light southerly flow was located over the Lower Mississippi Valley. Upper air analysis showed a ridge building from Baja California to Texas, a weak low over southwest Gulf of Mexico, wave over the Northern Plains and another ridge over Florida. The close proximity of the higher precipitable water values across the west half of the forecast area will yield a slightly better chance of convection this afternoon. Moisture fields do not change that much for Friday but ridge to the west builds east over the forecast area on Friday.
520 AM EDT Thu Apr 20 2017 An approaching cold front will bring showers and thunderstorms through tonight, followed by cooler temperatures into the weekend. Showers and isolated thunderstorms moving southeast across the ridges and will exit east toward toward 12z. A disjointed weak boundary may spark isolated showers as it shifts toward I-80 late morning, otherwise POPs have again been lowered into the afternoon as cold front appears to be a bit slower moving east. This will help increase low level instability, and with increasing shear with the approach of a mid level closed low over the Great Lakes will help fire showers and thunderstorms with an approaching front. Cold front crosses region toward sunrise Friday morning as cooler and drier air works southeast behind the front.
431 AM EDT Thu Apr 20 2017 A warm front will lift north from the Ohio Valley into the Great Lakes region early this morning. Cloud cover never quite clears up behind the front as storms continue to fire over southern Kentucky during the day and upper level flow remains west-southwest with a trailing longwave trough still extending from the Great Lakes into the central Plains.
Upper level ridging extends from the Gulf of Mexico, over Florida, then northeastward along the eastern seaboard through Friday. On the surface, strong high pressure off the mid-Atlantic coastline ridges southwest over Florida. This high moves southeast by Friday and will cause a shift in the winds from the east to a more southeast direction.
Otherwise, a somewhat flat upper ridge will build over the CWA/MSA during the period with a gradual decrease in PWAT values.
1152 PM MDT Wed Apr 19 2017 06Z TAF CYCLE A backdoor cold front will slide down the Eastern Plains overnight and result in a wind shift at KLVS, KTCC and KROW as well as an east canyon/gap wind at KSAF and KABQ by early morning. A back door cold front will dive into the eastern plains tonight with cooler temperatures across the east on Thursday. The focus for breezy conditions will shift to western areas on Thursday afternoon as an approaching upper level trough causes winds aloft to strengthen. The trough will pass north of New Mexico Friday steering the jet stream over New Mexico with strong surface winds and fire weather concerns.
Today, s/wv trof at h5 across the Upper Midwest will move east toward the Great Lakes. A front extending southwest from the low, will approach the area from the NW this afternoon, closing in on the Ohio River by 00z-02z.
Best accumulations will be over the Keweenaw where generally 2-5 inches is forecast through today, with lesser amounts of 1-3 inches for the higher terrain of the north- central. Could see another 1-2 inches of snow in the higher terrain N wind favored areas of the north-central and Keweenaw.
319 AM CDT Thu Apr 20 2017 The cold front is sloooowly working it's way through the forecast area this morning. Cooler temperatures can be expected today with northerly winds as a high pressure area passes through.
A cold front is making its way across the CWFA early this morning a few hours ahead of schedule from 00Z run projections.
A weak ridge of high pressure will build south from Canada on Thursday, but skies will remain mostly cloudy. A low pressure area will move east from the Great Lakes on Thursday and will bring more rain to the North Country Thursday night and Friday.
Again, with the orographic lift being pretty much the only forcing, the best chance for storms will be over the higher elevations. Temperatures will be quite warm today, reaching the lower 80s in many locations.
Evening update: Satellite this evening shows an upper trough off the coast with the Inland NW in a southwest flow aloft ahead of the trough. A longer duration of rain will moisten the lower levels with MVFR conditions expected to develop at KGEG/KSFF/KCOE/KPUW Thursday morning before rising back up to VFR in the afternoon.
and a cold front further north. Temps on Fri will also range significantly across the CWA with the cold front dropping further south.
A deceptively strong ridge will lean in from the Pacific over the weekend.
420 AM CDT Thu Apr 20 2017 (Today and Tonight) An upper trough moving into the Great Lakes region today will push a surface cold front into the northern Big Country by early evening. The cold front is expected to then lift northward out of our area as a warm front through the overnight hours.
Dew points have risen into the lower to mid 60s and along with light or calm winds, the likelihood for stratus and patchy fog development has increased. With deep layer ridging in place, expect mild conditions tonight with light upper level cloud cover and light winds. Lows will be in the low to mid 60s. In the upper levels a ridge will be over the region. Lows will be in the lower 60s.
329 AM CDT Thu Apr 20 2017 08z/2am surface map shows 1008mb low over northeast Iowa with a cold front trailing southwestward to Oklahoma. Lows will range from the lower 40s far north. to the lower 50s far SE. Models have been consistently shifting the low track further south and the 00z Apr 20 suite is no exception.
135 AM EDT Thu Apr 20 2017 Weather remains unsettled with a warm front remaining in our vicinity, and then a cold front crossing Thursday night.
408 AM MDT Thu Apr 20 2017 Main concerns in the short term revolve around the digging trough currently seen just off the NW US coast early this morning. As this trough moves closer late this afternoon, upper diffluence along with good PVA and height falls aloft will induce shower development over the higher terrain of SE WY. The upper trough will become negatively tilted as it moves overhead tonight and eventually form a closed circulation of sorts over northeast CO before it tracks quickly eastward into KS by Friday afternoon. As this happens SE WY and western NE will be in an area of favorable upslope SE to E flow in the low levels along with a mid level deformation zone.
The next cold front will cross the region today with a cold northwest flow for Friday. A ridge builds in for the weekend supplying a warming trend.
225 AM MST Thu Apr 20 2017 High pressure will remain in control of the weather this week, keeping the storm track to our north. Breezy conditions will affect the region today and Friday while a weak disturbance passes by to the north, but temperatures will hold in the 90s across the lower elevations. Dry and even warmer conditions are forecast for the weekend as highs will likely hit 100 across many desert locations. A fast moving upper trof will race through the western CONUS today, staying well to our north and mainly keeping high temperatures in check with the warmer deserts mostly in the lower 90s. northwest/north breezes will develop later tonight and during the day Friday over the western deserts - especially down the lower Colorado River valley - as low level gradients tighten behind the exiting system.
306 AM MDT Thu Apr 20 2017 Current surface analysis shows low pressure over eastern Iowa, with weakening area of low pressure also over southern Manitoba. Upper level analysis shows trough over eastern ND and northern MN, with showers now northeast of the CWA.
635 AM EDT Thu Apr 20 2017 Low pressure will track NE across the Central Lakes this evening forcing a strong cold front across the forecast area. as high pressure builds into the Great Lakes.
431 AM CDT Thu Apr 20 2017 A cold front extends from eastern IA to southeast KS. Fri-Fri night-Sat: The upper low closes off over western KS early then moves east reaching close to the MO/KS border by 09z/4am overnight. Strong lift will occur in the exit region of jet rounding the base of the upper low with periods of heavy rain Fri- Fri night, then tapering off/diminishing late Fri night into Sat as the best lift shifts east.
245 AM EDT Thu Apr 20 2017 Unsettled conditions will last into early Friday before a cold front delivers drier air for the last part of the day. The high RH and light wind should lead to a bit of fog in spots, but probably too much cloud cover to result in significant reductions to visibility. Latest model data shows 500-1000 J/KG of MLCAPE developing by the afternoon as low pressure/trailing cold front track east across lower MI and the Upper OH Valley. Cold front crossing the region early Fri will start the day with showers, but downward POP trend from NW to SE during the day as drier air spreads east across the area.
456 AM EDT Thu Apr 20 2017 Ridge of high pressure will remain over the area through early Friday with the remains of a frontal boundary north of the area.
Temperatures will be cooler Monday as a cool front moves southeast through tonight.
The cold front and associated thunderstorms will continue moving south-southeast and should be out of the CWA in the next few hours. High pressure is pushing a cool Canadian air mass into the area with dew points behind the front forecast to drop into the 50s over most of the CWA by morning. Quiet and dry conditions will be seen across the area Monday night as high pressure moves through the western Great Lakes.
gov/products/aurora-3-day-forecast High pressure will drift overhead on Monday. Plan on light easterly winds and highs reaching the upper 70s to around 80 inland and the lower/mid 70s near the lakeshore.
235 PM PDT Sun Jul 16 2017 Breezy winds will subside after sunset leading to a cooler than average night tonight.
1202 PM CDT Sun Jul 16 2017 Slightly, and I emphasize slightly, cooler and drier will be in place over the area today in the wake of yesterdays weak frontal passage.
This boundary dissipates early in the week as an upper level trough approaches from the northwest.
325 PM EDT Sun Jul 16 2017 A cold front just north of Lake Erie will continue to move slowly south and is expected to cross the local area overnight and early Monday.
Thunderstorms should expand in coverage as abundant tropical moisture surges northward ahead of a mid-level trough of low pressure moving into South Texas off the Gulf waters. Regardless, the trough axis will be moving overhead Monday afternoon with southeast flow aloft, which should support another decent round of precipitation.
However, for the most part, things should begin to dry out over this week as the upper level ridge fills in overhead.
232 PM CDT Sun Jul 16 2017 Cold front is dropping southward early this afternoon and has recently cleared Galesburg and Peoria. With freezing levels above 14kft, large hail may have a hard time making it to the surface, but some storms may pulse up enough for some brief hail/wind threats. High pressure will move across the Midwest on Monday, with a brief period of less humid air to enjoy, before the heat wave arrives.
The showers and thunderstorms will dissipate during the evening, and return during the day Monday as heating, the remaining remnants of the trough and another disturbance aloft rides West under the Southern periphery of the upper level ridge expanding into the area. The higher rain chance for Monday looks to have a more shift to the South.
Mostly dry high pressure mid week. Warmer and more humid with more storms late week into the weekend, as a front settles into the area.
The latest water vapor satellite loop shows a closed, cyclonic circulation over far east Texas along with a broad upper low over the southern Gulf of Mexico.
237 PM EDT Sun Jul 16 2017 Weak high pressure will slide offshore tonight.
High pressure centered over northeastern Minnesota early this morning will continue to provide dry conditions and plenty of sun through the afternoon across the area. As the high slides further east, southeasterly winds will begin to pick up behind it, especially across the western half of the forecast area.
The latest surface analysis shows a surface warm front through western ND, with an advancing cold front into central MT moving east with time. In between, an 850mb thermal ridge with increasing temperatures and instability. This lines up along and ahead of the advancing aforementioned cold front as it shifts through western into central ND overnight. The cold front limps from south central ND early Monday morning into the southern James River Valley Monday afternoon.
This Evening Through Sunday Upper ridge axis has shifted east of the forecast area, allowing southwest flow to bring moisture toward the northern Plains. North-south oriented surface trof across eastern MT and just east of the Big Horn Mts at 20Z with cold front behind it over southern MT. Trof will cross the overnight and although CAPE values are low, isolated thunderstorms may develop, especially over far northwestern SD. Thunderstorm potential will continue over western SD Monday as trof continues to move eastward and temperatures will be cooler.
Drier air under the ridge is pushing over the foothills and urban corridor. Storms over the far eastern plains may last into the night, especially over the far northeastern corner as the low lifts slightly north. Monday will bring warmer temperatures as the upper ridge re- establishes itself behind the departing upper low.
Other than some passing cirrus, it should be mostly clear Today and Tonight with highs in the lower 90s.
Another very warm to down right hot afternoon across the region as high pressure dominates much of the southwestern portion of the region. Given the heat in the interior and in the higher elevations, will keep the Heat Advisory in effect through the evening. However, warm and dry conditions will be likely in valleys and especially in the higher elevations as the air mass above the marine layer remains very warm.
247 PM CDT Sun Jul 16 2017 As has been shown by models for the past couple of days convection has developed along what is left of the cold front. The upper high will build back in fairly quickly mostly shutting off rain chances by the evening. Models have come mostly to a better agreement with the position and strength of the upper high for this coming week with their verdict being the high will dominate the region allowing for mostly warm and dry weather. Both models have the high centered across the Central Plains into the late week before pushing it southeastward to the MS Valley region.
Dewpoints north of the boundary have remained in the low to mid 60s, while dewpoints south of the boundary are in the 70s. Temperatures this afternoon will be a couple degrees warmer than they were yesterday, but the dewpoints will remain in the low to mid 60s, making it feel "comfortable" outside by mid-July standards. A weak cold front near the Great Lakes region will begin diving southward today, and showers and thunderstorms will form ahead of it in northern and central Indiana/Illinois.
244 PM EDT Sun Jul 16 2017 As high pressure drifts east, an approaching frontal system will bring a return to more humid weather with a chance for showers and thunderstorms tonight and Monday.
106 PM EDT Sun Jul 16 2017 A weak cold front will continue to push through the region into this evening. High pressure will then build in to bring dry weather and seasonably cool weather to start the week.
A broad upper level ridge, extending from the southwestern states across the central and southern Plains, will remain centered north of our area. Temperatures today and tonight will be near normal for the middle of July, with highs today 94-97 degrees, and lows tonight mostly in the lower 70s.
332 PM EDT Sun Jul 16 2017 Cold front now in process of slipping south of the border, with surface riding and lower dew pts (note 50s in northern lower Michigan) working in for the early evening hours, ending any thunderstorm chances. Good start to the work week weatherwise, as large upper level ridge centered over the Central Plains tracks East. The associated ridge axis will fold over Lower Michigan Monday Night. Weak wind field around on Monday, along with some diurnal flat cu, but should see highs predominatly in the upper 70s to around 80 with 850 mb temps around 12 C, slightly cooler northern Thumb region with onshore northeast flow.
224 PM EDT Sun Jul 16 2017 Warmer weather with increased humidity can be expected through the week.
227 PM EDT Sun Jul 16 2017 A weak cold front will gradually dissipate tonight into Monday. High pressure aloft will build east from the Plains states mid to late week, leading to hot weather. In summary, for the rest of this afternoon and evening, the lowest PoPs (slight chance) will be across the Triad, with PoPs increasing south and east, to likely PoPs across our SE zones. Little change in the pattern with the longwave trough axis remaining along the Appalachians.
Upper ridging aloft and dry air aloft will continue to limit areal thunderstorm development.
1230 PM CDT Sun Jul 16 2017 Upper ridging remains in place from the Rockies into the central and northern Plains. Medium range models do try and bring a cold front down into the central Plains Sat into Sat night, but confidence in this making it into our forecast area is low at this time.
333 PM EDT Sun Jul 16 2017 A weak cold front will stall over northern New England tonight and will lift back to the north on Monday.
1112 AM MDT Sun Jul 16 2017 Current surface map shows high pressure across Minnesota, with remnants of stationary front across western South Dakota. Strong upper ridge across the Rockies into the Northern Plains will bring another hot day. Old surface front will lift northward today as trof/dry line.
Overnight low temperatures will be near seasonal normals, in the low 70s. An upper level high will be centered across Oklahoma/Kansas on Monday, with its influence extending into north Texas. The northern half of the area will be closer to the upper level high, so mainly dry conditions are anticipated. Will still see a chance of afternoon/evening thunderstorms across the southern half of the area as a weak trough heads westward toward the Big Bend area.
Isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible once again Monday afternoon, mainly across the highland areas.
The current northern Great Lakes short wave will continue to push a trough and trailing weak cold front slowly south through Iowa today. Weak convergence associated with the trough was just passing through a Carroll to Ames to Waterloo line at 07z and is expected to just be exiting southern IA into MO during peak heating of the afternoon or early evening.
Some isolated showers/thunderstorms will linger over mainly the higher terrain of SE Tennessee/SW North Carolina with a frontal boundary positioned just south of the forecast area. A weak upper level trough swings through on Monday. Without a lot of moisture, not really expecting much precip as it rotates through; however, it should be enough to trigger another round of isolated to scattered showers/storms across the higher terrain of the Smoky Mountains tomorrow afternoon.
A cold front will move south across the area this morning and as it does. High pressure will move across the area Monday with southerly.