Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
UPPER TROUGH AND DISTURBANCE THAT BROUGHT THE RAIN AND RAIN/SNOW MIX OVERNIGHT TO OUR CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS OVERNIGHT AND THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT NORTH AND EAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON. A LARGE TROUGH AND UPPER LOW CURRENTLY MOVING ONTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ROCKIES LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.
110 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015 THE 07Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A NUMBER OF SURFACE BOUNDARIES ON THE HIGH PLAINS. THE OTHER IS A FRONT AND INVERTED TROUGH ACROSS MONTANA AND NORTHWEST WYOMING. THE WYOMING SYSTEM WAS ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ALONG THE WYOMING-MONTANA BORDER AND ANOTHER NORTH OF RIVERTON. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE THE BREAKDOWN OF AN TRANSITORY UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ON SUNDAY AS A TROUGH ADVANCES ACROSS THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST. THE TROUGH WILL ADVANCE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS THROUGH MID-WEEK AND CLOSE A LOW OFF OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGING IS THEN PROGGED TO SPREAD ATOP THE PLAINS. THE GREATEST CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION IN THE EXTENDED OCCUR ON SUNDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH ADVANCES SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES.
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NORTHEAST KANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN KS THIS PM/EVE. COOLER AIR WILL FILTER SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY VIA BRISK NORTHEASTERLY WINDS.
AT THE SAME TIME MID/UPPER LOW DIGS DOWN OVER FOUR CORNERS/NORTHERN MEXICO. LEANED ON THE WARMER SIDE (THOUGH NOT AS HIGH AS SOME MODELS WERE SHOWING) OF GUIDANCE FOR AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES. BUT KEEP TO THE LOW TO MID 80S ALONG THE COAST AHEAD OF THE DRY LINE.
A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN SINKING SOUTH FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTH THROUGH SE GA AND STALLS ACROSS NE FL. THIS WILL LEAD TO MAINLY DRY AND COOLER CONDS ACRS SE GA.
SHORT TERM MODELS STARTED HINTING AT THE LIMITED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT PER YESTERDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING RUNS WITH THE LACK OF QPF SIGNATURES ACROSS THE CWA AND FURTHER PROGRESSION OF THE LOW/WARM FRONT TO THE NORTH. EVEN THOUGH THE POTENTIAL MAY END SOONER AROUND 03Z FOR MOST OF THE HIGHLIGHTED AREA AFTER SUNSET. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION ON SUNDAY.
657 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015 LOW PRESSURE RIDES EAST ALONG FRONT AND PASSES LATE TONIGHT.
AS THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO PROGRESS INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES TONIGHT, A COOLER AIRMASS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO NEBRASKA WILL MOVE SOUTHWESTWARD INTO KANSAS, WITH UPSLOPE EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS DEVELOPING. THIS COOLER UPSTREAM AIRMASS WAS ALREADY MOIST, WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 40S ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA. AS THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST MOVES EVEN CLOSER AND BEGINS TO CLOSE OFF, THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THAT HAD BEEN SUPPRESSED WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST WILL BEGIN TO BE DRAWN NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW AND OVER THE LOW LEVEL FRONTAL SURFACE. AL IN ALL A CLOUDY AND COOL DAY WITH POSSIBLY PATCHY DRIZZLE ESPECIALLY LATER IN THE DAY AS THE UPPER LOW APPROACHED FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES.
305 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015 AN UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SWING EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH TONIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH AND IT WILL GET CUTOFF FROM THE PARENT TROUGH AS IT MOVES INTO NEW MEXICO BY MID DAY SUNDAY.
A GRADUAL BREAKUP OF CLOUDS IS UNDERWAY ALONG THE WARM FRONT. AND DEWPOINTS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE INTO THE LOWER 60S. A NICE SPELL OF WEATHER SHOULD FINISH OUT MUCH OF THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLE IN OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS/MIDWEST.
306 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015 12Z UA ANALYSIS HAD A CLOSED LOW NEAR KSTJ WITH A LLJ JET FEEDING MOISTURE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. DRY CONDITIONS AND CLEARING SKIES WILL BE SEEN AFTER MIDNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. QUITE AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS HAS DEVELOPED ALONG A COLD FRONT FROM DEATH VALLEY N. AN UPPER LOW WILL FORM OVER NEW MEXICO SUNDAY KEEPING THE REGION UNDER A COOL NORTH FLOW.
248 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015 THE 19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED THAT THE WARM FRONT WAS EXTENDING WEST TO EAST ACROSS SOUTHWEST THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY. SKIES WERE GENERALLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. THE LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW IS PROGGED BY THE MODELS TO GRADUALLY SHIFT AROUND TO THE WEST AND THEN NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT. AS THE TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. THE MODELS INDICATE THAT A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA ON SUNDAY.
This zone will also close quickly as the lead low migrates e/se and winds shift to the north and west behind the low. High pressure and cooler air will settle into the region for the remainder of the night with north-northeast winds.
THE FORECAST TRENDS INCREASINGLY COMPLEX AND UNSETTLED IN ADVANCE OF A STACKED CYCLONE PROGGED TO ARRIVE OVER CENTRAL NM BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MEAN WESTERLY FLOW WILL GRADUALLY BACK AS THIS LOW APPROACHES AND WITH PRESSURE FALLS FOCUSING ACROSS EASTERN NM.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT THE RECENT INCLEMENT WEATHER.
SOUTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA INTO AN LOW PRESSURE TROUGH SITUATED OVER EASTERN MONTANA. LONG WAVE TROUGH OUT WEST.
/ISSUED 432 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015/ EARLY MORNING GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A CLOSED UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER NORTHEAST KS. AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW. WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHEAST TO NEAR ST LOUIS. A MARINE WARM FRONT WAS LOCATED ALONG THE I20 CORRIDOR OF MS. EXPECT THE UPPER LOW TO LIFT EAST INTO THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY. WITH STORMS DEVELOPING EAST OF THE LOW ALONG THE NORTHERN WARM FRONT. BUT CONFIDENCE IS LIMITED GIVEN WEAKER CAPPING AND BETTER POSITIONED WARM FRONT IN THE OHIO VALLEY.
A DRY LINE IS SITUATED JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH DPTS IN THE LOW 50S JUST A COUNTY NORTH OF US.
254 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015 LOW PRESSURE RIDES EAST ALONG FRONT AND PASSES LATE TONIGHT.
EXPANSIVE AND COMPLEX BLOCKING IS IN PLACE ACRS MUCH OF NOAM AND THE NORTH ATLANTIC. THE BLOCKING WILL REMAIN INTACT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AS LONG AS THE BLOCKING ENCOMPASSES OUR AREA. AND SUNDAY CYCLONE HEADING EWD FM THE PLAINS WILL TRACK ACRS SRN IL TODAY.
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH IN THE MORNING BRINGING LOWERED CIGS FOR ALL TERMINALS. THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF ATMOSPHERIC DESTABILIZATION THIS AFTERNOON AS CLOUDS CLEAR OUT AND WARM US INTO THE LOW 80S.
A COLD FRONT WILL EDGE INTO THE AREA BY SUNDAY MORNING. /ISSUED 500 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015/ UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL KANSAS WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST AS A BRIEF PERIOD OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE PANHANDLES. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS DIGGING OVER THE GREAT BASIN AREA TODAY. AND BY SUNDAY A CLOSED LOW DEVELOPS NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION.
S-SE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON (EXCEPT SOLID SEABREEZE AT KAPF) WILL BECOME PREDOMINANTLY SW AFTER 00Z AND THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES DOMINATES THE PATTERN.
236 PM PDT SAT APR 25 2015 LOW PRESSURE THAT BROUGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION SATURDAY WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT, BRINGING PARTIAL CLEARING AND PATCHY AREAS OF FOG. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA STARTING LATE SUNDAY, WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS WARMING INTO THE 70S AND 80S FOR MID WEEK.
1227 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2015 A nearly vertically-stacked area of low pressure is located over northeastern Kansas early this morning. As that area of low pressure slowly moves east across central Missouri today, a cold front will begin to push south toward the area. Temperatures Sunday will be on the cool side of seasonable, with highs in the low 60s.
328 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015 A PACIFIC COLD FRONT HAD MOVED THROUGH ALL OF NORTH TEXAS AT MID AFTERNOON. THE DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TONIGHT BUT WILL STEADILY MODIFY ON SUNDAY IN RESPONSE TO A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE WEST. LARGE SCALE LIFT WILL BE ON THE INCREASE SUNDAY AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS NEW MEXICO. THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR SHOULD BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO EVEN SUPPORT AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS ALIGNED ALONG THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. AND SHORT WAVES ROUNDING THE TROUGH ARE SUPPORTING LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY. A STRONG LONG WAVE RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE WEST COAST. AFTER A WEAK WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH SUNDAY. THERE WILL BE A STRETCH OF DRY AND WARMER WEATHER.
THE RAP INDICATES THERE IS A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH ON THE NORTHEAST SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT COULD PRODUCE SOME WEAK FORCING OVER THE AREA BEFORE SHIFTING OFF TO THE EAST DURING THE MID AND LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. RAIN THREAT WILL END BY SUNSET AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER MB/ONT BUILDS SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION.
GUSTY AFTERNOON WINDS WILL OCCUR TODAY FOLLOWED BY A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AS A VIGOROUS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO OCCUR SUNDAY.
106 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015 LOW PRESSURE OVER NERN KANSAS WILL MOVE EAST SOUTHEAST TODAY AND REMAINS SOUTH OF IA. ALL MODELS ARE CLOSE TOGETHER WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE LOW. SAT PIX AND AND RADAR SHOW A NICELY ORGANIZED UPPER LOW AND THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE CIRCULATION WILL IMPACT THE SOUTH HALF TO THIRD OF IA THIS MORNING WITH MORE SCATTERED PRECIP OVER THE NORTH. INSTABILITY DECREASES WITH TIME AS THE LOW MOVES EAST AND IS PAST US BY THE TIME PEAK HEATING OCCURS.
These showers will expand through the region this evening while the next trough moves into Idaho and western Montana. This trough will interact with a low pressure system to the south with the main focus of precipitation to be through Lemhi County, Idaho and in southwest Montana. High pressure quickly builds into western Montana and north central Idaho Sunday night and lasts through mid week.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE CLOSER TO NORMAL ON SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT.
315 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2015 The upper level trough moved into northeast KS early this morning, stalled and pivoted, and has since moved southeast into Missouri. A few of these showers were lingering in eastern KS on the west flank of the low. The breeze and clouds will limit fog potential and will keep temperatures a bit warmer in the mid 40s for lows. Sunshine would allow temperatures to climb into the lower to middle 60s, while the northeast to easterly breeze will persist through the day.
THIS WILL BRING A QUICKER END TO RAIN TOWARD DAYBREAK WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THEW RIDGES BY 12Z SUNDAY. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS REGION.
622 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015 OHIO VALLEY LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING RAIN FROM PITTSBURGH SOUTH TONIGHT. DRY AND COOL HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE ITS EASTWARD TRACK ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY REGION TONIGHT. THE BEST DEEP MOISTURE AND UPPER SUPPORT IS PROGGED TO EXIT AROUND MIDNIGHT AS THE LOW SHIFTS EAST. SURFACE RIDGING IS PROGGED TO BUILD IN SUNDAY UNDER BROAD UPPER TROUGHING.
Latest water vapor satellite loop at 08Z shows the upper low over northeast Kansas. Regional radar loop shows precipitation circulating around the low centered over the Washington and Marshall county border. Rather broad swath of showers and thunderstorms around the upper low. Expect a period of showers and thunderstorms to persist in the deformation zone as the upper low slowly moves off to the east through the day. High pressure over the northern Plains and into the Great Lakes region will keep winds from the east this evening and overnight. Highs today will range from near 60 in the far northeast to the lower 70s near central and southeast Kansas.
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE REGION WILL ALSO KEEP LOWER 500MB HEIGHTS IN PLACE AND SO DO EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE.
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT DRIER AIR OVER ONTARIO/NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL BEGIN TO ADVECT TOWARDS NW MN THIS AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LOW OVER NE KS THIS MORNING SHIFTS EAST AND RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE AREA. KEPT HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID 50S. WITH DOWNSTREAM RIDGING AND A VERY DRY COLUMN TO THE EAST.
ACTIVE WEATHER TODAY AND TONIGHT AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE MISSOURI AND OHIO VALLEYS WILL GIVE WAY TO DRY AND QUIET WEATHER UNDER HIGH PRESSURE FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE BACK TO NORMAL BY AROUND MIDWEEK. IT LOOKS LIKE THE FORECAST AREA WILL STAY NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT FOR THE MAJORITY IF NOT ALL OF THIS EVENT SO THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN ELEVATED. THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION TO THIS WOULD BE IN THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES WHERE THE WARM FRONT GETS CLOSE AROUND 18Z OR SO AND SOME DRY AIR COULD WORK IN ALOFT ALLOWING FOR LESS CLOUD COVER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR INSTABILITY TO BECOME SURFACE BASED. THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM WILL BE DRY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE.
RIDGE AL- OFT SHOULD HELP TO KEEP POPS LIMITED TOMORROW AS WELL. THE NEXT UPPER LOW EXPECTED TO QUICKLY MOVE/DIVE OFF THE ROCKIES INTO THE SRN PLAINS SUN/SUN NIGHT THEN DEEPENING FURTHER OVER NORTH TX. BUT ON THE PLUS SIDE THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO DRAG A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH SE TX LATE MON/EARLY TUES.
AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE LOWER 80S THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. DEW POINTS IN WESTERN ALABAMA NEAR THE STATE LINE JUST NOW REACHING THE LOWER 60S WITH A DROP OFF INTO THE MID 50S AT TCL.
WINDS BECOME LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND ONCE THE CLOUD COVER DISSIPATES AND THE LOWER LAYERS BEGIN TO DECOUPLE. THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND ALSO WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING BELOW THE LOW 70S FOR MOST OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. THERE SHOULD BE A NORTH TO SOUTH RANGE OF HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 80S IN THE NORTH UNDER THE THICKER CLOUD COVER IS TO BE FOUND TO THE LOW 90S IN THE SOUTHERN LOCATIONS WHERE THERE SHOULD BE A LITTLE MORE SUN. WRLY FLOW NEAR 20KT EARLY MON MORNING WILL SLACKEN LATE AS THE RIDGE TO THE SOUTH COLLAPSES AND A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS INTO THE AREA.
THE LOW OFF TO THE WEST WILL FINALLY TRACK EAST WITH A POSSIBLE MCS DEVELOPING DURING THE EARLY PORTION OF TONIGHT AND MOVING INTO THE AREA. WITH THE REGION IN NW CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND A CLOSED LOW OVER THE ATLANTIC.
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW STALLED OVER VANCOUVER ISLAND IS ON THE MOVE DROPPING SOUTH AND SHIFTING TO THE EAST OVER TIME. THE LOW WILL EXIT THE REGION TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT WITH SHOWERS COMING TO AN END AFTER SUNSET. HAVE ISSUED FREEZE WARNINGS FOR LOCATIONS WHERE GROWING SEASON IS UNDERWAY AND TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR FREEZING.
WARM FRONT NEAR CHA WILL ALSO PUSH THROUGH TYS TODAY.
TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO BE COOLER. AN UPPER RIDGE THEN DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION. WITH A HIGH AMPLITUDE LONG WAVE TROUGH SETTING UP FURTHER WEST.
IN THE WAKE OF THE FILLING TROUGH TO OUR NORTH. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL AR AND EAST CENTRAL OK.
643 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015 OHIO VALLEY LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING RAIN FROM PITTSBURGH SOUTH TONIGHT. DRY AND COOL HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE ITS EASTWARD TRACK ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY REGION TONIGHT. THE BEST DEEP MOISTURE AND UPPER SUPPORT IS PROGGED TO EXIT AROUND MIDNIGHT AS THE LOW SHIFTS EAST. SURFACE RIDGING IS PROGGED TO BUILD IN SUNDAY UNDER BROAD UPPER TROUGHING.
BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER HAVE ALLOWED TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE LOW/MID 80S. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS AT LEAST THE NORTHERN HALF OF OKLAHOMA BEFORE STALLING IN SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA SUNDAY MORNING. STRONG UPPER FLOW ALONG THE WEST COAST AND RIDGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL US. WILL RESULT IN A CLOSED LOW OVER NEW MEXICO BY LATE SUNDAY. THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH/LOW MAY RESULT IN THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT LIFTING SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
Dry slot will push through the southeastern half of the CWA ahead of the low pressure this morning and early afternoon. The second round of precipitation today will take shape later this morning and into the afternoon as the low pressure center traverses east-southeast across the CWA. The threat of tornadoes is more conditional and will likely hinge on how much instability can be realized ahead of the low and if the surface winds can remain backed across this area.
219 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2015 The upper low that brought the storms and wind to the area yesterday has quickly moved off to the Mississippi River Valley today. Behind it have brief ridging aloft before the next upper trough over the Intermountain West gets here. This trough develops into a cut off low over NM Sunday and slowly wobbles across the region for the next couple of days. After that upper ridge returns with dry wx for the rest of the week.
GUSTY WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNSET WHEN A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH WITH A WIND SHIFT BACK TO THE NORTHWEST. A LOW LEVEL JET IS ALSO OVER AR AND WIND SHEAR WILL BE SEEN IN THE LOW LEVELS.
QUIET WEATHER WILL BE IN STORE FOR THE WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA AND DRY WEATHER SHOULD BE THE RESULT. NORTHWEST FLOW RESULTING FROM A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN U. AND A TROUGH OVER THE EAST COULD ALLOW A STRAY SHOWER OR STORM TO OCCUR AT SOME POINT DURING THE SHORT TERM.
SHORT TERM: (THROUGH LATE TONIGHT) STILL EXPECT A MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA AND THE WINDS BECOME LIGHT. SO MOS LOWS IN THE LOWER-MID 60S WHICH MATCHES THE GOING LOWS STILL LOOK GOOD.
A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION DURING LATE EVENING. BRINGING DRY HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE AREA. COOLER AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA UNTIL LATE IN THE WEEK. ACTUAL SURFACE COLD FRONT. ALONG PREFRONTAL TROUGH. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT WITH DRYER AIR GRADUALLY INFILTRATING THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTH. PARTICULARLY AGAINST THE WESTERN RIDGES. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL HOLD IN THE LOWER 60S WEST. RANGING FROM THE LOW/MID 70S ACROSS SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA. DRIER AIR ARRIVES AND HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO CONTROL OUR WEATHER THROUGH MOST OF THIS PERIOD.
715 PM EDT TUE AUG 11 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE REGION THIS EVENING.
739 PM EDT TUE AUG 11 2015 COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT MOVING OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND LATER THIS WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EAST FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM THE SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY ARE DIMINISHING AS WE MOVE TOWARD SUNSET. CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW AND DEEPENING COLD AIR ALOFT WILL SUPPORT THE CONTINUED MENTION OF CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS HANGING IN OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NORTH OVERNIGHT. THE UPPER TROUGH AND COLD POOL WILL BOTTOM OUT OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY.
WITH THE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUING TO BUILD INTO WEDNESDAY.
NORTH AND NORTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE TO FILTER IN SLIGHTLY DRIER AND COOLER AIR ACROSS THE NORTH.
/ISSUED 230 PM CDT TUE AUG 11 2015/ DRIER AIR-MASS CONTINUES TO FILTER INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NE OK/NW AR BEHIND COLD FRONT WHICH HAS PUSHED JUST SOUTH OF THE ARKLATX REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO PUSH SLOWLY WESTWARD INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BY LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
A PLEASANT NIGHT IS IN STORE FOR THE MIDSOUTH WEATHERWISE AS DRIER AND COOLER AIR SPREADS INTO THE AREA ON NORTHERLY WINDS. /ISSUED 323 PM CDT TUE AUG 11 2015/ A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NOW COVERS THE EASTERN ONE THIRD OF THE UNITED STATES WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT NOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MID SOUTH THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE MID SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
BUT A PRESSURE TROF AND WIND SHIFT LINE JUST SOUTH OF I-20 IS PROBABLY A CLOSE ESTIMATE OF THE POSITION OF THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A COLD FRONT WAS VERY CLOSE TO TCL/BHM/GAD EARLY THIS EVENING. /ISSUED 648 PM CDT TUE AUG 11 2015/ USING THE CLASSICAL DEFINITION OF A COLD FRONT AS THE LEADING EDGE OF AN ADVANCING COLDER AIR MASS. I WOULD PUT THE COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON NEAR OR PERHAPS JUST NORTH OF THE ONGOING BAND OF CONVECTION. STILL LOOKS LIKE THE EAST COAST TROUGH THAT DEVELOPS/AMPLIFIES THE END OF THE WEEK MAY CUT OFF A WEAK LOW OVER THE WEEKEND -- A SOLUTION BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF AGREE ON IN GENERAL.
STORMS ALONG THE PREFRONTAL TROUGH SAGGING SOUTHWARD AT 10-15KTS INJ-LXY-DKR WITH ISOLATED STORMS DEVELOPING SOUTHWARD OF THE PREFRONTAL TROUGH.
814 PM EDT TUE AUG 11 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE REGION THIS EVENING.
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE WELL AND HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DOMINATING THE WEATHER OVER OUR REGION THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. THE EC CONTINUED TO BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN THE GFS IN THE MODELS AND WITH THE GUIDANCE NUMBERS.
WHILE RIDGE AXIS ACROSS FAR EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA EDGES EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. BLENDING IN MORE OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION SOLUTION.
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND RISING HEIGHTS/RIDGING ALOFT WILL KEEP THE REGION DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD. WITH THE COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS IN PLACE. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.
THIS IS BRINGING STRONG GUSTY WINDS TO THE RIDGES AS WELL AS SOME VALLEYS BELOW PASSES EXPOSED TO THE SOUTH.
Scattered convection is expected to continue through around midnight with weak troughing in the area before diminishing.
945 PM EDT TUE AUG 11 2015 A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY.
1024 PM EDT TUE AUG 11 2015 COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT MOVING OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND LATER THIS WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EAST FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. ALL SHOWERS HAVE DISSIPATED OVER THE LOWER SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY THIS EVENING WITH SHOWERS MOVING INTO NORTHERN WARREN AND MCKEAN COUNTIES AT THIS TIME. CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW AND DEEPENING COLD AIR ALOFT WILL SUPPORT THE CONTINUED MENTION OF CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS HANGING IN OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NORTH OVERNIGHT. THE UPPER TROUGH AND COLD POOL WILL BOTTOM OUT OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY.
BUT A PRESSURE TROF AND WIND SHIFT LINE JUST SOUTH OF I-20 IS PROBABLY A CLOSE ESTIMATE OF THE POSITION OF THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
SUBTLE/WEAK UPPER IMPULSES TOPPING THE SOUTHERN CONUS RIDGE.
802 PM EDT TUE AUG 11 2015 A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH WILL BRING DRY WEATHER FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORK-WEEK. AN UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN STATES WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL VA THROUGH THE NC MOUNTAINS TO CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI. CONVERGENCE AND DIURNAL HEATING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT WAS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO THE ROLLING PLAINS THAT WOULD HAVE OTHERWISE SERVED TO HELP INITIATE MEAGER VERTICAL MOTION. WEDNESDAY FORECAST TEMPS AND LOW POPS ARE ON TRACK AS BEST MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY PIVOTS WEST AND NORTH AS UPPER HIGH MIGRATES TOWARD FOUR CORNERS REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK. THE UA RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO MIGRATE WESTWARD AND SETTLE AROUND THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION BY THIS WEEKEND.
THE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME WESTERLY OVERNIGHT AS AN ELEVATED WARM FRONT IN MANITOBA AND NORTH DAKOTA MOVES EAST THROUGH THE NORTHLAND AND NW ONTARIO. MOST MODEL GUIDANCE CAME IN WARMER FOR HIGHS. SO FELT CONFIDENT IN INCREASING THE HIGHS ABOUT 3 TO 5 DEGREES. WITH A LEANING TO THE WARMER GFSMOS/NAMMOS/NAM12 GUIDANCE.
1200 AM EDT WED AUG 12 2015 COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT MOVING OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND LATER THIS WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EAST FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. ALL SHOWERS HAVE DISSIPATED OVER THE LOWER SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY THIS EVENING WITH SHOWERS MOVING INTO NORTHERN WARREN AND MCKEAN COUNTIES AT THIS TIME. CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW AND DEEPENING COLD AIR ALOFT WILL SUPPORT THE CONTINUED MENTION OF CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS HANGING IN OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NORTH OVERNIGHT. THE UPPER TROUGH AND COLD POOL WILL BOTTOM OUT OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY.