Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Issued by National Weather Service Caribou ME 205 PM EDT Fri May 7 2021 An area of low pressure will bring a narrow axis of rain showers into portions of northern New York later today, while Vermont stays dry. Hv reduced pops for the next several hrs bfr rain chcs increase as inverted trof and upr lvl provides better forcing. Still expecting an area of low pressure and narrow swath of rain showers to track eastward across central New York and into the Saint Lawrence Valley/western Adirondacks by late afternoon. For such reasons, high temperatures will be a bit cooler in New York (low to mid 50s) while in the upper 50s to low 60s across Vermont. At the same time, low-level easterly flow will help advect in relatively drier air from a downstream area of high pressure.
1121 AM MDT Fri May 7 2021 Current surface map shows high pressure slipping into the eastern Dakotas/Minnesota as upper level ridge shifts into the Northern Plains. Upper level ridge breaks down tonight with upper trough digging into the northern Rockies. Best chance of widespread showers/higher QPF continues to be across far northwest South Dakota late tonight through Saturday night as upper low cuts off over the northern Rockies.
Weak low pressure has developed over the lower Hudson Valley with inverted trof axis extending into upstate. High pressure and drier air will be moving in on erly flow tonight with Vermont remaining relatively dry. Cooler conds are expected acroSs entire area on Saturday given easterly flow and cldy conditions. Very brief ridging builds in Sun morning ahead of next system appchg fm the southwest as upr low slides south into Ontario fm Hudson's Bay.
Several runs of the HRRR have been consistent in developing the high LCL convection to around Elkhart as early as 3 pm, and more or less driving clusters of storms eastward through about Meade county by 00Z with localized downbursts, in most cases, south of the state line. The left front exit region of a southern high plains upper jet will provide ample upper flow for strengthening of a weak prefrontal 850-surface layer low pressure during the afternoon. The setup is essentially a dryline/cold front intersection over our easternmost counties, where with potential for e all modes can be possible.
High pressure will offer dry weather later tonight into Saturday.
252 PM EDT Fri May 7 2021 A cold front will sink southward to the Ohio River by midnight and then push farther south into Tennessee by morning. With these clearing skies and surface winds becoming light, temperatures will tumble in the chilly air behind the departing cold front. Tomorrow developing low pressure will slip from Colorado into Kansas with a warm front reaching east to the Tennessee Valley.
High pressure builds in at the surface which will lead to several hours of light to calm winds overnight. As a result, temperatures will fall to near or several degrees below freezing. Forecast lows range from the low to middle 20s in north- central WI, to the upper 20s in central WI, and the low 30s across the Fox Valley and east- central WI. After a seasonably chilly and sunny morning, temperatures will be a little warmer tomorrow, reaching the mid to upper 50s away from Lake Michigan.
Upper ridging aloft will build into the Plains, keeping northwest flow aloft. Thus, expect overnight lows in the lower 50s. Skies will become partly cloudy by the afternoon, which will help temps warm into the lower to mid 70s. A weak trough will move into the Southern Plains on Saturday night, shifting a ridge eastward and through the area. The axis of this ridge is expected to be east of the area by daybreak, with flow aloft shifting to the west-southwest.
110 PM CDT Fri May 7 2021 High pressure continues to nose into the area and with it some subsidence that has halted CU development. Temps have climbed into the low 40s and are on track for highs in the mid and upper 50s this afternoon. Temperatures are starting a slow recovery after chilly overnight lows ranging from the upper teens near Cando ND to just below the freezing point near Elbow Lake MN. Otherwise, increasing H5 ridging and subsident warming aloft should lead to mainly sunny conditions the rest of the day. Saturday will see a steady turn of winds out of the east to southeast as a low pressure system digs into the western Dakotas.
1210 PM CDT Fri May 7 2021 The large upper level low near Hudsons Bay is expected to spin another short wave trough across the Great Lakes region today. After that, the large area of high pressure currently over Manitoba will move southeast and across the region tonight.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 49 70 54 82 64 / 0 20 0 20 80 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 48 66 51 80 62 / 20 20 10 20 80 Oak Ridge, TN 47 66 51 79 60 / 20 20 10 20 80 Tri Cities Airport, TN 43 62 47 78 58 / 50 20 20 20 70.
An upper level low currently moving off the Eastern Pacific and onto the Pacific Northwest coast will bring rain and snow chances to western and central North Dakota after midnight over the far west, and then Saturday and Saturday night for much of western and central North dakota.
This is expected to be fairly steady-state into the night, but mid and high level cloudiness is still expected to develop into Iowa SW-NE overnight with this warm advection and some kinematic contributions from the developing western long wave trough and much lower amplitude wave moving out of New Mexico. The ridge along the Missouri River at 19z is expected to reach or just pass the Upper MS Valley by sunrise leading to some concerns about frost northeast.
Temperatures will be 20 to 25 degrees cooler today (around 5 to 10 degrees below normal). An upper level trough crossing Washington and north Idaho will support scattered showers over the mountains of central Idaho and eastern Oregon through this evening, and isolated showers elsewhere across southwest Idaho this morning.
The upper ridge axis over Mexico into the Rockies will move east into the plains down to south Texas on Saturday. An area of low pressure will deepen over the central high plains tonight providing an increase in southerly low level flow into south Texas. Models depict a very weak 70H short wave trough moving into south Texas by 12Z Saturday. A short wave trough will be moving out of the Rockies into the central high plains Saturday afternoon. The low pressure area will continue to deepen as it moves across Kansas Saturday night.
Meanwhile, a weak area of low pressure over western NC will move east this morning and offshore by the afternoon.
/Issued 329 AM PDT Fri May 7 2021/ Breezy northwest breezes will prevail today along with cooler temperatures through the weekend. A band of light showers continues to steadily track eastward across eastern Pershing and Churchill counties early this morning as an upper-level trough moves across the region. These mainly virga showers will weaken and shift eastward this morning with mainly cooler conditions and breezy west-northwest winds being the main weather highlight today. The increased instability in the axis of the trough combined with some modest jet dynamics on the backside of the trough may pop a few additional light showers across portions of Lassen, Plumas, and Washoe counties this afternoon. Temperatures will cool a few additional degrees on Saturday with some freezing temperatures possible across Sierra valleys Saturday morning with otherwise seasonable daytime highs and lighter northerly breezes prevailing Saturday afternoon.
1013 AM CDT Fri May 7 2021 10am Update Mostly sunny today with temperatures into the low to mid 70s. Clouds begin to move in later today ahead of a low pressure system moving for the weekend. /issued 448 AM CDT Fri May 7 2021/ Relatively cool and dry conditions to prevail today, behind yesderday's cold frontal passage, and under northwest flow aloft. An upstream upper ridge over the high plains will lift east tonight and Saturday, deamplifying in the process.
/issued 1013 AM CDT Fri May 7 2021/ 10am Update Mostly sunny today with temperatures into the low to mid 70s. Clouds begin to move in later today ahead of a low pressure system moving for the weekend. /issued 448 AM CDT Fri May 7 2021/ Relatively cool and dry conditions to prevail today, behind yesderday's cold frontal passage, and under northwest flow aloft. An upstream upper ridge over the high plains will lift east tonight and Saturday, deamplifying in the process.
Not much will keep highs from reaching or exceeding 80 degrees nearly areawide as subsidence from high pressure suppresses cloud cover.
The risk of thunderstorms will decrease into the night as the cold front moves east and CAPE decreases. Temperatures will be much cooler with additions showers moving through much of the area for most of the weekend.
245 PM CDT Fri May 7 2021 The passing of an upper level ridge axis this afternoon will signal a transition to southwesterly flow aloft in response to a trough axis emanating from a low across the BC west coast and extending toward Baja California. Lee troughing across eastern NM will continue to pull moisture into the region.
Though we are ahead of the front, winds have begun to back to the northwest across the Lower and Middle Keys. Across the Upper Keys, winds are still from the southwest as a thermal trough has developed over southeast FL.
Frost is expected in many areas later tonight as lows fall into the low to mid 30s and skies clear.
Not much will keep highs from reaching or exceeding 80 degrees nearly areawide as subsidence from high pressure suppresses cloud cover. Synoptically, ridging in W. /Saturday Night through Friday/ Saturday Night will begin a transition period aloft across the Southern Plains as weak upper ridging will quickly become west southwesterly flow as a disturbance begins to exit the Pacific Northwest and enter the Intermountain west. Meanwhile at the surface, southerly flow will continue to moisten the lower levels of the atmosphere in the form of higher dewpoints, higher humidity which combined with higher temperatures will result in increasing instability.
845 AM PDT Fri May 7 2021 Low pressure to the north will bring cooler weather over the next few days, with extensive low clouds each night and morning from the coast into the western valleys.
1206 PM CDT Fri May 7 2021 Latest surface analysis is showing the main polar front well off to our south while a secondary cold front was moving south over the upper Midwest. The highest PoPs will then shift north of I-70 during the afternoon a warm front moves north into southern Missouri with the strongest low level forcing over the northern CWA. Highs today will be around 70 degrees as there will be some deep mixing and 850mb temperatures will be around 8C before the cold front moves through.
245 PM MDT Fri May 7 2021 The latest analysis shows an upper ridge over the high plains, with an upper low over the Pacific Northwest, creating southwesterly flow aloft over the forecast area this afternoon. Enhanced lift due to an impulse rotating around the upper trough, is expected to develop some showers and thunderstorms in the area of greatest instability which will move into northeastern Wyoming this afternoon, shifting eastward into western South Dakota this evening, with relatively steep mid-level lapse rates and increasing moisture in a region of enhanced 850-700mb theta-e advection tonight. As the upper low remains to the west of the forecast area, a dry slot may move into the region from the southwest on Saturday, keeping much of the rest of the area dry through at least Saturday morning.
There will be some gratuity PoPs in place but even the chances on Saturday withe passage of the upper system and associated cold front don't seem to be as good as before. The upper trough and surface front are moving through eastern NV attm and really not much more than thin band of organized clouds.
A deep trough of low pressure over western British Columbia is pushing a cold front over the Northern Rockies this afternoon. Enough instability exists with the cold front to spawn some thunderstorms across north-central Idaho and southwest Montana this afternoon.
For tonight, after initializing with the NBM guidance, will opt to lean toward slightly cooler MAV MOS with the ideal radiational cooling conditions that are expected across the region tonight. Highs on Saturday will still likely be below normal, but only slight, ranging from the low to mid 70s along the immediate coast, but in the lower 80s for most inland locations.
315 PM EDT Fri May 7 2021 Breezy and dry conditions will continue into Saturday as high pressure sinks to our southwest.
(Today and tonight) It will be mild overnight with lows in the lower to mid 60s as a lee trough continues to bring southerly winds, gusty at times. Highs will be in the lower 90s, except for upper 80s in eastern section from Brady to Brownwood to San Saba where there will be a few more clouds.
311 PM CDT Fri May 7 2021 A weak backdoor type cold front was dropping southward through northern MO and central IL this afternoon. Could not rule out a few light showers or at least sprinkles across southwest IL late this afternoon where there is slightly better instability on the backside of an upper level trough. More convection will develop along and north of I-70 by Saturday evening along and north of a warm front. Temperatures will be well below normal across northeast MO and west central IL north of the warm front Saturday and Saturday night.
Ridge that was over the plains will shift east late tonight into Saturday. Temperatures Saturday will in the upper 60s near Paris, TN to the low 80s in Marks, MS.
303 PM CDT Fri May 7 2021 The synoptic wave pattern today features a trough centered on the Mid-Atlantic and a ridge centered on the Front Range. The ridge is expected to decrease in amplitude while progressing eastward with the ridge axis reaching the Mississippi River approximately Saturday evening. A cold front, associated with a Great Lakes low, is pushing towards Ohio today, trailing behind showers which results in slight chance PoPs along the I-64 corridor, Evansville Tri-State, and portions of the Kentucky Pennyrile late this afternoon into the evening. Tomorrow evening the stationary front turns into a warm front and crosses the Quad State to the north, bringing the showers to the I-64 corridor and locations north for the evening.
The cold front that brought some of us rain yesterday is now located across the southern part of the peninsula.
The cold front that brought the line of rain and thunderstorms through the area yesterday currently stretches from Atlanta, GA southwest into southern Alabama. Much drier and cooler air is in place this morning over the area as a result of northerly flow behind this front. Temperatures started out in the lower to mid 40s in many locations and have risen into the lower to mid 50s across most of northern Alabama and southern middle Tennessee. The ridge should be situated over southern MS/AL by Saturday morning. High temperatures should rise into the low/mid 70s to end the week. A moderation in temperatures continue, with lows ranging from the lower 50s NE AL to lower 60s NW AL.
As the upper level ridge transitions east overnight. expect heights begin to fall as an upper level trough crosses the central Rockies and emerges into the plains late Saturday afternoon. With southerly flow pushing a warm front into southern Nebraska ahead of this trough to start the day Saturday. expect the warm front that lifted north to shift east as a cold front drops south during the evening hours. the responsible area of low pressure is expected to cross the central plains mid- week.
The upper ridge over TX will deflate quickly tonight as a progressive subtropical pattern returns with a broad upper trough that is part of a broader upper low digging into the Nrn Rockies.
747 PM EDT Fri May 7 2021 A slow moving upper level trough of low pressure will bring showers to parts of northern New York tonight and Saturday while Vermont remains on the dry side.
A weak cold front moves through the area tonight with VCSH mainly around TRI. Diegan Chattanooga Airport, TN 49 68 54 81 63 / 0 20 10 10 80 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 48 65 52 80 61 / 10 10 10 10 80 Oak Ridge, TN 48 65 50 79 60 / 0 10 10 20 80 Tri Cities Airport, TN 44 64 47 78 58 / 30 10 20 10 70.
The synoptic wave pattern today features a trough centered on the Mid-Atlantic and a ridge centered on the Front Range. The ridge is expected to decrease in amplitude while progressing eastward with the ridge axis reaching the Mississippi River approximately Saturday evening. A cold front, associated with a Great Lakes low, is pushing towards Ohio today, trailing behind showers which results in slight chance PoPs along the I-64 corridor, Evansville Tri-State, and portions of the Kentucky Pennyrile late this afternoon into the evening. Tomorrow evening the stationary front turns into a warm front and crosses the Quad State to the north, bringing the showers to the I-64 corridor and locations north for the evening.
Latest water vapor imagery shows a compact upper level low moving across eastern WA and extreme NE ORE this evening.
413 PM CDT Fri May 7 2021 This afternoon a wave was positioned over the Great Lakes region while a ridge was beginning to flatten as it moved into the Plains. southeasterly winds were common over the CWA with a warm front/low level moisture lifting northeast toward the region. the mid/upper level northwesterly flow should move eastward as another wave drops southeast into the Rocky Mountain region and pushes the flattening ridge over the region. This airmass is expected to remain capped through the afternoon hours with afternoon convection progged near the warm front and dryline.
For tonight, after initializing with the NBM guidance, will opt to lean toward slightly cooler MAV MOS with the ideal radiational cooling conditions that are expected across the region tonight. Highs on Saturday will still likely be below normal, but only slightly, ranging from the low to mid 70s along the immediate coast, but in the lower 80s for most inland locations.
Temperatures are few degrees cooler than yesterday as a ridge of high pressure moves off to the east.
High pressure nearly overhead is yielding abundant sunshine, light northerly winds and temperatures in the lower 80s. The high will shift east of the region overnight turning surface winds out of the southeast which will allow dewpoints to begin creeping back up.
919 PM CDT Fri May 7 2021 High pressure in control across the Tennessee Valley with tranquil weather continuing tonight with a mostly clear sky and light winds. Skies will become partly cloudy by the afternoon, which will help temps warm into the lower to mid 70s. A weak trough will move into the Southern Plains on Saturday night, shifting a ridge eastward and through the area. The axis of this ridge is expected to be east of the area by daybreak, with flow aloft shifting to the west-southwest.
216 PM PDT Fri May 7 2021 Low pressure to the north will bring cooler weather over the next few days, with extensive low clouds each night and morning from the coast into the western valleys.
717 PM EDT Fri May 7 2021 Two cold fronts will cross the region, one this evening and one overnight which will bring scattered rain and snow showers.
Weak southeast flow has returned across SE TX/S LA with the slightly higher dewpts in the lower 60s. High pressure nearly overhead is yielding abundant sunshine, light northerly winds and temperatures in the lower 80s. The high will shift east of the region overnight turning surface winds out of the southeast which will allow dewpoints to begin creeping back up.
650 PM CDT Fri May 7 2021 A weak backdoor type cold front was dropping southward through northern MO and central IL this afternoon. Could not rule out a few light showers or at least sprinkles across southwest IL late this afternoon where there is slightly better instability on the backside of an upper level trough. More convection will develop along and north of I-70 by Saturday evening along and north of a warm front. Temperatures will be well below normal across northeast MO and west central IL north of the warm front Saturday and Saturday night.
604 PM EDT Fri May 7 2021 Rain will push through eastern Pennsylvania this evening ahead of a deep upper level trough.
However, the high-res models favor the NAM and show weaker winds especially over the upper Snake Plain tonight.
Expect frosty mornings with much cooler temperatures as well, especially in the mountain valleys.
1008 PM EDT Fri May 7 2021 A slow moving upper level trough of low pressure will bring showers to parts of northern New York tonight and Saturday while Vermont remains on the dry side.
833 PM MDT Fri May 7 2021 Cold front has moved through Billings in the past half hour aided by thunderstorm outflows from the west and north. Wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph brief heavy rain and small hail will be the threats with storms through midnight tonight, ahead of the cold front. Cold temperatures aloft will produce snow in the higher terrain as snow levels drop to around 5000 feet by sunrise tomorrow morning, though most accumulating snow should stay above 6500 feet where 2 to 4 inches seems reasonable. The risk of thunderstorms will decrease into the night as the cold front moves east and CAPE decreases. Temperatures will be much cooler with additions showers moving through much of the area for most of the weekend.
Cooler temperatures are expected through the weekend. Breezy and cooler conditions today behind the cold front that moved through yesterday. There is a very slight chance that we could pop a shower over Mono-Mineral this afternoon, but as the trough axis moves out of the region, the threat will push further into central and eastern Nevada this evening. Temperatures may drop down to near or below freezing in the colder Sierra valleys Saturday morning. Temperatures in the western Nevada valleys should remain above freezing, but outlying/rural valleys could see temperatures near the freezing mark Saturday morning.
Have also adjusted the overnight lows as the clouds associated with these showers/the upper disturbance will likely get in the way of efficient radiational cooling under the ridge axis in the east. The low-level ridge axis builds east along the northern Gulf Coast, SW return flow will begin to pick up across the Delta. NE lifting warm front will also increase WAA/moisture advection. Dewpoints will begin to increase from SW to NE in the low-mid 50s to low 60s by the afternoon while drier in the upper 40s in the NE. Even with some subtle mid- high clouds, increasing low-level thermal warmth & efficient mixing potential will help highs warm slightly above normal in the low-mid 80s.
An upper trof over the Pacific NW will dig into the northern Rockies tonight, thus crushing the ridge currently over the region.
The left exit region of a southern high plains upper jet will provide ample upper flow for strengthening of a weak prefrontal 850-surface layer low pressure during the afternoon. The setup is essentially a dryline/cold front intersection over our easternmost counties, where with potential for all modes can be possible, with less of a tornado threat farther west where storms may even be post frontal.
A cold front will move into the north from the northeast in the morning and bring rain chances to the north.
/Issued 413 PM CDT Fri May 7 2021/ This afternoon a wave was positioned over the Great Lakes region while a ridge was beginning to flatten as it moved into the Plains. southeasterly winds were common over the CWA with a warm front/low level moisture lifting northeast toward the region. the mid/upper level northwesterly flow should move eastward as another wave drops southeast into the Rocky Mountain region and pushes the flattening ridge over the region. This airmass is expected to remain capped through the afternoon hours with afternoon convection progged near the warm front and dryline.
/issued 245 PM CDT Fri May 7 2021/ The passing of an upper level ridge axis this afternoon will signal a transition to southwesterly flow aloft in response to a trough axis emanating from a low across the BC west coast and extending toward Baja California. Lee troughing across eastern NM will continue to pull moisture into the region.