Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
636 PM CST FRI NOV 27 2015 VERY LITTLE CONCERNS THRU TOMORROW AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD. NEW SNOW COVER MAY ALLOW FOR COOLER TEMPS THEN FORECAST. ESPECIALLY IN THE LOW LYING AREAS WHERE A COUPLE INCHES FELL SOUTH OF THE TWIN CITIES. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SW TOMORROW AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE SE.
INVERSION CONDITIONS WILL INTENSIFY THIS WEEKEND DUE TO RIDGING AND WARMING ALOFT.
A PREVAILING SE-S FLOW HAS ENABLED TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE LOWER 70S. MOST CERTAINLY WARMER THAN SEASONAL VALUES OF 59. RAIN WAS OCCURRING IN THE WARMER REGIONS IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT. UPPER LEVEL BLOCKING SETTING UP OVER THE NW CONUS. AN UPPER LOW/WAVE MOVING UP THE FRONT WILL BRING THE BEST RAIN CHANCES TO THE AREA FROM SUN-TUE. THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT SHOULD REACH THE FORECAST AREA ON TUE. A LARGE UPPER HIGH OVER PORTIONS OF THE SERN US WILL KEEP A CDFNT (OVER THE MIDWEST) AND ASSOCIATED PCPN TO THE WEST OF THE TN VALLEY THRU THIS FCST ISSUANCE.
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LINGERING OVER THE AREA WILL ENSURE COOL TEMPERATURES PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED WITH ONLY SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
510 PM CST FRI NOV 27 2015 A cold front has made it almost all the way through the region except for the southeast corner of the cwfa. Temperatures well back behind the front have stabilized with the sfc freezing line just west and nw of the cwfa.
THE PREDOMINANT FORM OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET IN SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES WHILE SNOW AND SLEET WILL OCCUR ACROSS NORTHWESTERN PANHANDLE COUNTIES. A STATIONARY BAROCLINIC ACCESS NEAR OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES COMBINED WITH FAVORABLE DYNAMICS WILL PRESENT MODERATE FREEZING RAIN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. BELIEVE LULL IN FREEZING PRECIP WILL COME TO AN END AT THE START OF TAF PERIOD. APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL BRING PRECIPITATION. PRECIPITATION WILL FALL IN THE FORM OF MAINLY FREEZING RAIN AT KAMA.
IN THE HIGH COUNTRY. THE UPPER CLOSED LOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN CALVES OFF A PIECE OF ENERGY IN OUR DIRECTION OVERNIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND CROSS SECTIONS SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE AGAIN OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS THIS EVENING INTO SATURDAY MORNING. SO FOR POPS WILL GO WITH 20-60%S WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES IN THE FOOTHILLS.
MODELS STILL NOT HAVING MUCH LUCK WITH FORECASTING THE CURRENT PATH AND IMPACTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN.
THE TEMPERATURE AT KBVO IS NEAR FREEZING. WE DO NOT EXPECT BUT IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN COULD OCCUR THERE. Thus, will keep the freezing rain advisory where it is now, but as mentioned even a one degree drop will require expansion to the southeast.
ASIDE FROM A FEW CLOUD BUILDUPS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING WARMER THAN YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME WITH MID 50S TO LOWER 60S AROUND THE AREA.
747 PM EST FRI NOV 27 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SLOWLY TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. SINCE THE SFC REFLECTION OF THE LOW PRESSURE IS SO WEAK AND THE DRIVING FORCE IS A FAST-MOVING THING. IT MAY EITHER BUBBLE UP SOME LIGHT RAIN INTO THE NORTH - OR THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COULD MAKE FOR SOME DZ. COLD FRONT SAGS TO THE SOUTH OF PA WITH DIMINISHING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTH.
635 PM EST FRI NOV 27 2015 AVIATION ANY LEFT OVER SHOWERS WILL COME TO AN END BY LATE EVENING AS A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO FEED COOLER AND DRIER AIR IN THE REGION. THIS LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING CONSIDERABLE SUNSHINE WITH SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WHAT WE AREA WATCHING FOR TONIGHT IS OUTSIDE CHANCE OF A LITTLE FREEZING DRIZZLE/ LIGHT RAIN SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 94.
310 PM PST FRI NOV 27 2015 COLD LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE GREAT BASIN REGION THROUGH SATURDAY.
THE UPPER CLOSED LOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN CALVES OFF A PIECE OF ENERGY IN OUR DIRECTION OVERNIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND CROSS SECTIONS SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE AGAIN OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS THIS EVENING INTO SATURDAY MORNING. SO FOR POPS WILL GO WITH 20-60%S WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES IN THE FOOTHILLS.
527 PM CST FRI NOV 27 2015 A STG COLD FRONT HAS BROUGHT WIND SHIFT TO NW NEAR 10 KTS AT KTYR AND KGGG. /ISSUED 141 PM CST FRI NOV 27 2015/ COLD FRONT AS OF 20Z THIS BLACK FRIDAY AFTERNOON EXTENDED FROM NEAR DEQ THROUGH GGG AND JSO LINE. UPPER LOW CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER SRN NV TO SLOWLY EJECT E THROUGH THE CENTRAL U. SE GULF OF MEXICO INFLOW OF SOME 30 KNOTS CONTINUES ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THE UPPER LOW IS STEERING A STRONG SUBTROPICAL JETSTREAM INTO THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES.
823 PM MST FRI NOV 27 2015 THERE IS A NARROW CORRIDOR OF FREEZING DRIZZLE OVER THE TRI-STATE AREA CURRENTLY. THE ICE ACCUMULATION WILL NOT HAVE AS MUCH OF AN IMPACT AS THE FREEZING DRIZZLE LAST NIGHT. EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SNOW LARGE CLOSED LOW STILL IN PLACE ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN WITH EXTENSIVE PLUME OF PACIFIC MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. A DRY LAYER IN THE LOWEST 6000 KFT OF THE ATMOSPHERE DEVELOPED OVER NEBRASKA THIS MORNING AND ADVECTED SOUTH ACROSS OUR CWA PUTTING AN END TO PRECIP. THERE IS AN INDICATION OF RETURN FLOW/UPSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT WITH INCREASING MOISTURE IN THE -3 TO -8C LAYER SUPPORTIVE OF VERY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR FREEZING DRIZZLE.
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN.
801 PM CST FRI NOV 27 2015 UPDATED TO BOOST ICE ACCUMULATION AMOUNTS TONIGHT GENERALLY S-E OF LUBBOCK FOR CURRENT AXIS OF MODERATE FREEZING RAIN THAT HAS PRODUCED HOURLY ESTIMATES UP TO 6/10 OF AN INCH. HOWEVER ADDITIONAL FORCING FOR ASCENT IS LOOMING IN SE NM WHERE ROSWELL HAS RECENTLY REPORTED MODERATE FREEZING RAIN.
511 PM MST FRI NOV 27 2015 00Z TAF CYCLE WDSPRD MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS IN LOW CLOUDS AND PERIODS OF FROZEN OR FREEZING PCPN WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. FREEZING PCPN WILL FAVOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND SE OF A LINE FM KTCC TO KSRR.
640 PM EST FRI NOV 27 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT TO PROMPT A RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLY CHILLY CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND.
A FEW DEG WARMER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. A LARGE UPPER HIGH OVER PORTIONS OF THE SERN US WILL KEEP A CDFNT (OVER THE MIDWEST) AND ASSOCIATED PCPN TO THE WEST OF THE TN VALLEY THRU THIS FCST ISSUANCE. A PREVAILING SE-S FLOW HAS ENABLED TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE LOWER 70S. MOST CERTAINLY WARMER THAN SEASONAL VALUES OF 59. RAIN WAS OCCURRING IN THE WARMER REGIONS IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT. UPPER LEVEL BLOCKING SETTING UP OVER THE NW CONUS. AN UPPER LOW/WAVE MOVING UP THE FRONT WILL BRING THE BEST RAIN CHANCES TO THE AREA FROM SUN-TUE. THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT SHOULD REACH THE FORECAST AREA ON TUE.
701 PM PST FRI NOV 27 2015 Chilly temperatures and clear skies are expected through at least Friday as strong high pressure builds over the Pacific Northwest.
COLD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MEANDER AROUND THE GREAT BASIN FOR CONTINUED VERY COLD TEMPERATURES AND A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OVER EASTERN NEVADA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. COLD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MEANDER AROUND THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND FOR CONTINUED VERY COLD TEMPERATURES AND A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OVER EASTERN NEVADA.
427 PM MST FRI NOV 27 2015 EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SNOW LARGE CLOSED LOW STILL IN PLACE ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN WITH EXTENSIVE PLUME OF PACIFIC MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. A DRY LAYER IN THE LOWEST 6000 KFT OF THE ATMOSPHERE DEVELOPED OVER NEBRASKA THIS MORNING AND ADVECTED SOUTH ACROSS OUR CWA PUTTING AN END TO PRECIP. THERE IS AN INDICATION OF RETURN FLOW/UPSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT WITH INCREASING MOISTURE IN THE -3 TO -8C LAYER SUPPORTIVE OF VERY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR FREEZING DRIZZLE.
WITH THE ATLANTIC RIDGE ACROSS FLORIDA AND A TROUGH NEAR THE YUCATAN. AND TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE LOWER 80S WITH DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 70S. A RATHER TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IS PRESENT ACROSS KEYS WATERS DUE TO A RIDGE ACROSS FLORIDA AND A TROUGH NEAR THE YUCATAN. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO TREND GRADUALLY DOWNWARDS AS THE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AND FURTHER AWAY FROM THE KEYS.
927 AM PDT SAT JUN 13 2015 TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SLIGHTLY THIS WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY WEAKENS OVER THE AREA. SHOULD SEE A LITTLE LESS NORTH WIND THIS AFTERNOON NORTHERN SAC VALLEY WHICH SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURE A BIT COOLER THERE.
AS THE POTENTIAL AND PLACEMENT OF CONVECTION ALONG THE COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING REMAINS RELATIVELY UNCHANGED IN THE 08-10 UTC HRRR ITERATIONS. MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS INVOLVE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE TODAY AND TONIGHT AND SEVERE POTENTIAL AS COLD FRONT CROSSES THE STATE. CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTHWEST ND.
722 AM EDT SAT JUN 13 2015 A DRY COLD FRONT CROSSES THE TRI-STATE THIS MORNING FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE.
1044 AM EDT SAT JUN 13 2015 A DRY COLD FRONT CROSSES THE TRI-STATE THIS MORNING FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE.
939 AM CDT SAT JUN 13 2015 H5 ANALYSIS TONIGHT HAD A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE SWRN CONUS. RIDGING WAS NOTED ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC OFF THE WESTERN COAST OF THE US. WHILE HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM EASTERN BRITISH COLUMBIA. A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM NWRN ND. THE H5 TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. EAST OF DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO AND SERN WYOMING. THERE IS ALSO A LIMITED SFC FOCUS IN THIS AREA AS WELL AS AN INVERTED TROUGH AXIS EXISTS. COULDN/T RULE OUT A STRAY TSRA IN THE PINE RIDGE TONIGHT AND INCLUDED IT IN THE FCST. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO FORCE A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL KEEP AN EAST FLOW OVER SOUTH FLORIDA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. /ISSUED 321 AM EDT SAT JUN 13 2015/ UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO THIS MORNING AND WILL DRIFT SLOWLY TO THE NORTH. A DEEP LAYER RIDGE EXISTS OVER THE ATLANTIC AND THE PENINSULA RESULTING IN DEEP EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. ALTHOUGH THE GRADIENT MAY RELAX SLIGHTLY BY LATE THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY IN THE WEEK, THE DEEP EASTERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER MAKER FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS THE RIDGE MOVES VERY LITTLE. 5" AS WE ENTER THE SUBSIDENCE SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW.
1040 AM EDT SAT JUN 13 2015 RIDGING STILL LOOKING TO SUPPRESS CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON TO MAINLY ONLY THE FAR SW OR WEST THIS AFTERNOON. UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AND THIS WILL HELP TO LIMIT CONVECTION ACROSS THE CWA AND THUS FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE SHORT TERM HAVE LIMITED POPS TO ABOUT 20 PERCENT. WITH UPPER RIDGE.
COLD FRONT WAS OVER THE SE CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA PER SURFACE DEWPOINTS AND PRESSURE RISES. PRECIPITATION CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE LIMITED TO THE SOUTHERN HIGH TERRAIN AS THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES UPSLOPE FROM THE E AND SURFACE CAPES APPROACH 500 J/KG PER THE SREF. SHEAR IS FORECAST OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN AS WELL. CANNOT RULE OUT A LINGERING THUNDERSTORM OVER THE FAR SE NEAR THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT. IT WILL BE COOLER THAN YESTERDAY IN THE POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS. COLD FRONT WORKED ITS WAY ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MONTANA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AS A RESULT DAYTIME HIGHS TODAY WILL BE COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS SEVERAL DAYS. CIRCULATION AROUND A MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER SASKATCHEWAN WILL BRING SOME ENERGY ACROSS THE TREASURE STATE BY SATURDAY EVENING.
A WEAK TROUGH WILL BRUSH WESTERN WASHINGTON TODAY MAINTAINING SOMEWHAT COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS.
931 AM EDT SAT JUN 13 2015 A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. THE FRONT WILL MOVE BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING.
634 AM CDT SAT JUN 13 2015 H5 ANALYSIS TONIGHT HAD A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE SWRN CONUS. RIDGING WAS NOTED ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC OFF THE WESTERN COAST OF THE US. WHILE HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM EASTERN BRITISH COLUMBIA. A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM NWRN ND. THE H5 TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. EAST OF DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO AND SERN WYOMING. THERE IS ALSO A LIMITED SFC FOCUS IN THIS AREA AS WELL AS AN INVERTED TROUGH AXIS EXISTS. COULDN/T RULE OUT A STRAY TSRA IN THE PINE RIDGE TONIGHT AND INCLUDED IT IN THE FCST. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO FORCE A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THIS WEEKEND.
550 AM MDT SAT JUN 13 2015 TODAY WILL START OFF WITH A FILLING UPPER LOW OVER THE SWRN U. ABOUT NOON A PORTION OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TRAVELING OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AREA AND SW CO. ALONG WITH INCREASING UPLIFT AS THE REMNANT TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. A RIDGE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE TROUGH SUNDAY. THIS SHOULD BRING A DECREASE IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SUNDAY ALONG WITH MORE SUNSHINE A WARMER TEMPS. TROUGH ALONG THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST SENDS SHORT WAVE ENERGY SKIRTING THE HALF OF FORECAST AREA.
/ISSUED 359 AM CDT SAT JUN 13 2015/ LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION NOTED THIS MORNING OVER CENTRAL OK/N TX ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROF IN THE SRN PLAINS. WV IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER RIDGING OVER THE SERN U. OUR REGION REMAINS PINCHED BETWEEN THE UPPER RIDGE TO THE E AND THE TROF TO THE NW. WE ARE LIKELY TO SEE COOLER TEMPS TODAY DUE TO MORE CLOUD COVER AND CONVECTION.
1248 PM EDT SAT JUN 13 2015 HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
THE HIGHEST CONCENTRATION OF STORMS WILL BE FROM THE I-75 CORRIDOR WESTWARD. TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY IN THE LOW 80S AND WILL WARM UP QUICKLY BY THE AFTERNOON REACHING THE LOW 90S ALONG THE COAST AND MID 90S INLAND. WILL KEEP A TEMPO MVFR/IFR GROUP THROUGH 14Z TO COVER THIS UNTIL THE LOW CLOUDS BURN OFF.
731 AM EDT SAT JUN 13 2015 AVIATION A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERS WILL MOVE ALONG A FRONT STALLED ACROSS MICHIGAN THE NEXT FEW DAYS BRINGING SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES.
MORNING SOUNDINGS WERE STILL QUITE UNSTABLE WITH COOL TEMPS IN THE -9C/-10C RANGE AT 500MB AND RELATIVELY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES FOR MID-JUNE DESPITE THE MID LEVEL RIDGING ALOFT. STORM ACTIVITY WILL MAINLY BE OVER INLAND AREAS IN THE SOUTHERN STEERING FLOW AROUND THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER AS SEA BREEZE FRONTS MOVE INLAND FROM BOTH COASTS. AND WILL BE MORE TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST ACROSS NE FL SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS AND A BIT MORE TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST ACROSS SE GA NORTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS. SOME OF THE HIGHEST READINGS SO FAR THIS YEAR.
LINGERING MOISTURE AND WEAK INSTABILITY WILL RESULT IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER MAINLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN TODAY. WEAK UPPER LOW WHICH WAS OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA YESTERDAY HAS SHIFTED SOUTHEAST AND IS NEAR YUMA THIS MORNING. A POSITIVE TILT TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THIS LOW NORTHEAST TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS. TROUGH AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST TODAY WITH RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC BUILDING CLOSER TO THE WEST COAST. BEST INSTABILITY TODAY LOOKS TO BE NEAR THE TROUGH AXIS FROM SOUTHERN MOHAVE COUNTY WEST INTO SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY AND FAR SOUTHERN NEVADA. CONVECTION LOOKS TO BE STARTING EARLIER TODAY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN, INCLUDING THE SPRING MTNS/SHEEP RANGE.
THE BUILDING RIDGE FROM THE SE WILL SUPPRESS CONVECTION IN SOUTHERN AREAS. THE SOUTHERN VALELY WILL HAVE HIGHS A LITTLE WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. IN THE LOWER 90S.
1035 AM CDT SAT JUN 13 2015 HAVE MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO REFLECT COOLER TEMPS AND MORE SKY COVER NORTHWEST OF ILLINOIS RIVER. THE EXCEPTION IS THE FAR NORTH FROM THE PEORIA AREA NORTHWARD WHERE WINDS HAVE SWITCHED TO THE NORTHEAST AND SLIGHTLY COOLER/DRIER AIR IS TRYING TO FILTER IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS AND PREVAILING WESTERLIES STAY WELL TO THE NORTH ALONG THE US/CANADIAN BORDER.
1242 PM EDT SAT JUN 13 2015 A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. THE FRONT WILL MOVE BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING.
STACKED HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED ALONG THE SOUTHERN ATLANTIC STATES BETWEEN SAVANNAH, GA AND JACKSONVILLE, FL. THE LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE MODERATE, AROUND 10-15 KTS, WHICH WILL HELP KEEP SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON MOVING QUICKLY. THE HIGHEST COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN OUR WESTERN ZONES, THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND SOUTHEAST ALABAMA, WHERE THE SEA-BREEZE FRONT WILL BE STRONGER. HIGHS TODAY WILL PEAK IN THE 90S, WITH LOWER TEMPERATURES TO THE WEST WHERE THUNDERSTORMS AND CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES MODERATED, AND MID-UPPER 90S IN THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA, CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF THE HIGH PRESSURE.
615 AM CDT SAT JUN 13 2015 AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN MAINLY WEST AND NORTH OF THIS CWA TODAY. SUNDAY LOOKS COOLER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED THANKS TO AN ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS/STORMS.
UPPER LOW THAT WAS OVER THE GULF HAS DROPPED MORE SOUTH AND HELPING TO ENHANCE CONVECTION OVER NW CARIBBEAN. /ISSUED 703 AM CDT SAT JUN 13 2015/ REGION IS FALLING ALONG THE WESTERN FRINGE OF A MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW OR NORTHERN GULF TROPICAL WAVE. IN-LINE WITH THE HIGH(EST) SOUTHERN GULF MOISTURE AXIS NUDGING ITS WAY ONTO THE UPPER TEXAS COAST.
1135 AM EDT SAT JUN 13 2015 UPDATE A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERS WILL MOVE ALONG A FRONT STALLED ACROSS MICHIGAN THE NEXT FEW DAYS BRINGING SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES.
HIGH PRESSURE IN THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC WILL START TO RETROGRADE AND MOVE BACK INLAND AS A SHORT WAVE IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS LIFTS NORTHEAST TODAY. WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDING IN FROM THE EAST.
A MUCH DRIER AND WARMER AIRMASS HAS MOVED OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE. SURFACE DEW POINTS SHOULD DROP TO THE LOWER 40S DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXES OUT. THE MORNING RAOB AT KDEN INDICATED THAT THE AFTERNOON HIGH COULD BE IN THE LOWER 80S. WEAK RIDGING ALOFT OVER WYOMING AND NORTHERN COLORADO SLOWLY PUSHING SOUTH WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER AND WARMER AIRMASS. HOWEVER LINGERING LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO. FOR SUNDAY UPPER LEVEL ZONAL FLOW DOMINATES THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CONUS WITH A WEAK TROUGH TO THE SOUTH.
1009 AM CDT SAT JUN 13 2015 TEMPERED DOWN POPS FOR THIS MORNING WITH ONLY A FEW LIGHT RETURNS ALONG TO SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT DRAPED FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. INCREASING CHANCES AND COVERAGE INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR THUNDERSTORMS AS THE COLD FRONT ADVANCES SOUTHEAST COUPLED WITH INCREASING DIURNAL INSTABILITY. AS THE POTENTIAL AND PLACEMENT OF CONVECTION ALONG THE COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING REMAINS RELATIVELY UNCHANGED IN THE 08-10 UTC HRRR ITERATIONS. MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS INVOLVE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE TODAY AND TONIGHT AND SEVERE POTENTIAL AS COLD FRONT CROSSES THE STATE. CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTHWEST ND.
THE CLEARING IS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE WARM FRONT WHERE WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST.
716 AM EDT SAT JUN 13 2015 A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. THE FRONT WILL MOVE BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING.
1107 AM EDT SAT JUN 13 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE AWAY THE AREA THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AND CREST OVER THE REGION ON SUNDAY. TONIGHT WILL FEATURE CLEAR SKIES AND COOLER TEMPERATURES W/HIGH PRES BUILDING IN FROM THE W. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY WITH SEASONABLY WARM AND DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS. THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST SUNDAY NIGHT WITH MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED.
703 AM CDT SAT JUN 13 2015 REGION IS FALLING ALONG THE WESTERN FRINGE OF A MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW OR NORTHERN GULF TROPICAL WAVE. IN-LINE WITH THE HIGH(EST) SOUTHERN GULF MOISTURE AXIS NUDGING ITS WAY ONTO THE UPPER TEXAS COAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL TODAY AND COOLER RELATIVE TO THE OBSERVED HIGHS OVER THE PAST COUPLE DAYS.
825 AM EDT SAT JUN 13 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE AWAY THE AREA THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AND CREST OVER THE REGION ON SUNDAY. TONIGHT WILL FEATURE CLEAR SKIES AND COOLER TEMPERATURES W/HIGH PRES BUILDING IN FROM THE W. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY WITH SEASONABLY WARM AND DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS. THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST SUNDAY NIGHT WITH MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED.
320 PM EDT MON AUG 10 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.
MODELS INDICATE THAT AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THIS TROUGH WILL ERODE THE EASTERN SIDE OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN "BAKING" THE AREA AS OF LATE. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST AND AMPLIFIES BY TUESDAY MORNING AS THE 50 KT JET OVER NE UTAH AND NW COLORADO LIFTS NORTH.
MAIN THEME FOR THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES. HEIGHTS WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE NEXT 24HR AS AN UPPER RIDGE FURTHER DEVELOPS. THIS WILL PLACE SURFACE TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 80S IN THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 90S WEST.
239 PM EDT MON AUG 10 2015 A PRESSURE RIDGE WILL PUSH FARTHER OFF THE COAST TODAY. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE IN THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
THAN EVEN WITH WEAK SFC COLD FRONT STILL ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AROUND 20Z. ANOTHER SEASONABLY WARM NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. BUILDING SFC RIDGING INFLUENCES SFC. ACTUALLY LOWERING INTO THE LOWER 80S. BY THU AFTERNOON AS SFC RIDGING INFLUENCES BUILDING IN FROM THE N ROCKIES BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE MID STATE. LOWS WED NIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER 60S TO AROUND 60 PLATEAU. SFC RIDGING INFLUENCES WILL BEGIN SHIFTING EWD FRI.
152 PM EDT MON AUG 10 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TUESDAY.
WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER TOMORROW THAN THEY HAVE BEEN FOR THE PAST WEEK. BUT WITH THE RIDGE MOVING OFF WESTWARD.
233 PM EDT MON AUG 10 2015 RETURN FLOW OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL BRING IN MOISTURE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS DURING THE TAF PERIOD WITH WINDS SHIFTING OUT OF THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. MID LEVEL IMPULSE WAS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE REGION LATE THIS MORNING WITH A COLD FRONT PUSHING ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA. THE COLD FRONT WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE CWA. THOUGH HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S WITH HEAT INDICES AROUND 100-103 WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE.
VFR CONDITIONS WL PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF PD AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT MAINTAINS VERY DRY CONDITIONS. ANOTHER HOT AND DRY DAY IS EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS ALL OF SOUTH TX AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT PERSISTS.
A 500MB TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE SURFACE COLD FRONT ALREADY WENT THROUGH THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. BUT THE UPPER LEVEL COLD FRONT WILL NOT CLEAR SOUTHERN WI UNTIL LATE TONIGHT.
152 PM EDT MON AUG 10 2015 AVIATION COLD FRONT TO BRING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. MONDAY AFTERNOON THUNDER CHANCES INCREASE AS A WEAK LOW LEVEL JET NOSES INTO LOWER MICHIGAN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. COOLER AND STILL SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT BUILDS OVER THE REGION TUESDAY.
248 PM CDT MON AUG 10 2015 WIDESPREAD FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS HAD FORMED BY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE STATE AS WE REMAIN DOWNSTREAM OF THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WHICH IS CENTERED OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN RANGE TODAY. BUT LIGHTER TOMORROW AS THE GRADIENT WEAKENS DUE TO THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER PUSHING INTO MN. MAYBE A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER WITH A LITTLE LESS CLOUD COVER.
LATEST AVAILABLE IR IMAGERY OVERLAID WITH MODEL STREAMLINE ANALYSIS AS OF 200 PM DEPICTS THE CENTER OF A DEEP AND WARM ANTICYCLONE REMAINING OVER CENTRAL TEXAS. AT THE SURFACE AND IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE LEVELS. BUT BRIEF ERUPTION OF SHOWERS OCCURRED OVER BOTH THE UPPER AND THE LOWER KEYS ALONG CLOUD LINES.
205 PM EDT MON AUG 10 2015 HYDRO COLD FRONT TO BRING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. MONDAY AFTERNOON THUNDER CHANCES INCREASE AS A WEAK LOW LEVEL JET NOSES INTO LOWER MICHIGAN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. COOLER AND STILL SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT BUILDS OVER THE REGION TUESDAY.