Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
An upper ridge centered over the Rockies early this morning quickly pushes east with its axis lining up with the Missouri River tonight. Most locations should be at least 3-4C warmer than yesterday, but increasing cloud cover will likely put a damper on maximum potential heating. A cool front crosses the Sandhills with a progressive upper trough on its heels. The best combination of forcing and moisture convergence occurs near the Pine Ridge overnight into early Friday morning. Cold air advection continues through the day in the wake of the front and mid/upper level trough.
Temperatures are mainly in the mid to upper 20s with a 5 mph wind, making it feel a few degrees cooler. Temperatures in that area will remain in the low to mid 30s, but should fall a few degrees once clouds clear. Temperatures will range from the lower 40s today with lower 50s on Friday. The progressive pattern continues this weekend, as a longwave trough deepens across the Southern Plains.
222 AM MST Thu Dec 17 2020 Upper ridging covers the western CONUS, with a low pressure system pushing into the Pacific Northwest. Warm air advection is expected today ahead of the approaching trough, allowing temperatures to warm into the 40s. Snow will end early Friday morning as trough shifts eastward. A cold front will cross the northern plains Friday.
This combined with continued winds have kept temperatures warmer than what was otherwise expected. So far the only freezing temperatures found are across East Texas where clouds cleared earlier this evening. Latest satellite imagery indicates that clouds are now in the process of clearing at a more rapid pace, so temperatures may drop to the lower 30s across the northwest half of the forecast area.
525 AM CST Thu Dec 17 2020 Cold ground, light winds, and smallish dewpoint depressions will support patchy freezing fog through early to mid-morning across eastern/southeast KS. Since temperatures are below freezing, patchy slick roads are possible. It will be a bit warmer today-Friday, with forecast highs in the 40s- 50s, as upper ridging moves over Mid-America. Stout/gusty south winds are expected tonight and Friday ahead of an elongated upper trough and associated cool front. As the upper trough passes overhead Friday night, may see areas of sprinkles/flurries across the region.
/Today through Friday night/ Well we are still working on the clearing the low clouds over SE AR and many of the LA parishes. The core of the high pressure of 1025mb at Nacogdoches with the HRRR building this air mass to 1028mb by 15Z over SE TX. The high pressure center will keep to our S and drift along the Gulf coast today. Highs today will be in the low to mid 50s, about 5 degrees below average and then overnight more frost with lower 30s for an average low overnight. The warming trend really does a lot better tomorrow with southerly winds boosting our highs into the lower 60s and then only down in the 40s overnight with the clouds rolling back into the area late Friday. We will see scattered showers developing after midnight ahead of a cold front.
638 AM EST Thu Dec 17 2020 Flurries with patchy freezing drizzle will linger into the morning and will bring an increased risk of slippery roads, especially given ongoing road conditions.
Early morning water vapor imagery/RAP analysis showed broad upper level troughing over our region that was continuing to support a layer of stratus over our CWA. The layer of stratus will erode this morning as the upper level trough shifts east. This layer of stratus has held temperatures from dropping off as fast so far this morning and lows will likely be a couple degrees warmer than anticipated. /22/ Friday through Christmas Eve: High pressure will slip off to the east on Friday and surface flow will become out of the southeast again.
858 AM CST Thu Dec 17 2020 Chilly start to this morning with temps in the lower 30s, which is 10-15 degrees cooler than yesterday. Despite the sunshine, CAA will keep daytime highs in the lower 40s. Temperatures will likely fall well down into the 20s for most locations overnight, which could create freezing fog conditions in those locations if it does develop. However, the extent and longevity of any freezing fog development remains uncertain at this time. High clouds should begin to increase late in the day, but temperatures will be warmer than today due to low-lvl WAA.
This upper ridge axis will be centered over the area overnight Thursday night. Temperatures will dip into the low to mid 20s in the eastern Ozarks and the low 30s over the western CWA. We are going with highs in the low to mid 50s. We have humidity levels dipping into the low to mid 40s during the afternoon on Friday. The lower levels will moisten up with the approach of the surface front and upper trough Friday evening.
As the trough exits the region, it will slide down towards the Four Corners and allow for high pressure to build in behind it.
A cold front is moving southeast over the extreme southeastern Gulf of Mexico, with cool and dry northwesterlies behind the front. The cold front over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico will push through later this afternoon (20-22Z). Highly progressive flow will allow the high pressure system initially over the northern Gulf Coast to slide east quickly into the western North Atlantic.
In the wake of the mid-level trough, H500 ridging will move over the region for Friday and with sfc ridging pushing to the east srly winds will begin to increase. After several days of well below average temperatures, Friday looks to hold much warmer readings as highs climb into the 50s. Near the end of the period a more robust mid-level trough and sfc cold front will approach the area from the west.
423 AM MST Thu Dec 17 2020 Upper ridging covers the western CONUS, with a low pressure system pushing into the Pacific Northwest. Warm air advection is expected today ahead of the approaching trough, allowing temperatures to warm into the 40s. Snow will end early Friday morning as trough shifts eastward. A cold front will cross the northern plains Friday.
A Pacific Northwest low pressure system will continue pushing eastward today, spreading the down stream upper level ridge into the Northern Plains.
503 AM EST Thu Dec 17 2020 Flurries with patchy freezing drizzle will linger into the morning and will bring an increased risk of slippery roads, especially given ongoing road conditions.
As a trough approaches tonight into Friday, lowering ceilings and a few snow showers will take shape across far northern New Mexico with localized MVFR to IFR conditions and high mountain peak obscurations near the New Mexico-Colorado border.
642 AM EST Thu Dec 17 2020 Low pressure will linger over the region today, keeping conditions cloudy and cool with some lingering light precipitation.
A weak cold front will continue to push through the Northern Rockies today causing scattered showers. A transitory ridge of high pressure slides over the region Friday allowing for the shower activity to diminish.
359 AM MST Thu Dec 17 2020 With a fast moving upper level disturbance moving through the region, expect light snow along the Rocky Mountain Front today, while scattered snow showers are possible, mostly over the higher elevations of Southwest MT.
Slightly Warmer. Lows tonight, mainly around 40, will be slightly warmer than usual mid December lows, with surface winds continuing, from the south.
/issued 334 AM EST Thu Dec 17 2020/ With the recent cold front moving into southern Florida, northwesterly low level flow today will setup strong cold air advection. The cold air advection will continue overnight, allowing Friday morning temperatures to drop to near freezing over the Nature Coast, and upper 30s to mid 40s farther south. With north winds remaining around 5-10 mph, wind chills Friday morning will run a few degrees cooler than the air temperatures.
Good news is the cloud cover has helped to hold temperatures in the lower 30s for the most part, compared to the lower to mid 20s this AM farther to the west and southwest, where skies have been mostly clear overnight. Where clouds persist, temps will likely stay in the mid 30s, whereas sunnier areas could pop into the lower half of the 40s this afternoon.
After some areas reaching freezing temperatures and others near freezing early this morning, the sun will shine under clear skies, warming temps to highs in the low to upper 60s, east to west respectively. Moist warm air advection will cause lows tonight to increase into the low to mid 40s over inland portions of South Texas, and into the 50s near the coast. Quiet weather conditions continue through Friday as quasi-zonal flow aloft dominates ahead of a mid to upper-level trough moving eastward into Texas.
326 AM CST Thu Dec 17 2020 A Pacific Northwest low pressure system will continue pushing eastward today, spreading the down stream upper level ridge into the Northern Plains.
553 AM CST Thu Dec 17 2020 High pressure shifting across Illinois today, will bring quiet weather and cool temperatures. Warmer weather is expected on Friday, as southerly winds strengthen over the Midwest.
Stronger southerly flow in the lower levels and upper-level ridging will settle into the area tonight.
Winds expected to generally be northerly today around 5 to 10 kts, with light and variable winds setting in by Thursday evening as high pressure becomes better centered over the region. This combined with continued winds have kept temperatures warmer than what was otherwise expected. So far the only freezing temperatures found are across East Texas where clouds cleared earlier this evening. Latest satellite imagery indicates that clouds are now in the process of clearing at a more rapid pace, so temperatures may drop to the lower 30s across the northwest half of the forecast area.
Temperatures expected to dip below freezing in areas along and north of the I-12/I-10 corridors on Friday morning.
Today, height rises over the area as upper level ridging builds into the Plains coupled with weak WAA at the surface will allow temperatures to rise into the mid 30s to mid 40s. Downstream upper level ridging will build int the area Friday in response to a upper trough digging into the western Plains. Strong WAA out ahead of a approaching cold front will temperatures to rise into the mid 40s to mid 50s.
434 AM CST Thu Dec 17 2020 Forecast highlights in the short term period will be another mild day today, followed by a cold frontal passage tonight through Friday morning. Active flow pattern continues with the S/WV ridge moving quickly eastward across the area today, followed by another S/WV trough/cold frontal passage tonight into Friday. along the cold front, so went with higher POPs for this feature.
Raised lows this morning as wind was up just enough to keep it a bit warmer. An associated cold front will move through on Friday. If anything occurs late tonight into Friday morning, it may even be a touch of freezing drizzle, but looks unlikely with how shallow the low-level moisture is. A bit of ridging is expected toward the beginning of the work week that will give us a bit of a warmup.
An Alberta clipper ahead of the upper wave will drop a cold front into Montana tonight. A colder airmass moves in the the high pressure following the front for Friday. Downslope kicks back in for the weekend with a flat ridge over the northern Rockies.
At the least, overnight low temperatures Friday morning should be about 10 degrees warmer. A brief thermal ridge will move over the area and may allow for temperatures to reach 50 degrees in southeast Nebraska. Warm temperatures will be short lived as a cold front will move through the area Friday night.
There is a mix of clouds and stars this morning, with clouds being maintained by a passing upper level trough and weak low-level warm air/moisture advection from the southwest. As the trough continues to progress east across the region today, clouds will linger with peeks of sunshine here and there.
Chilly high pressure will build into the region through Friday night. An upper-level trough centered over the MS valley will move eastward through the Eastern US through Friday. Given the shallow saturation, clouds will not contain any ice and with the lowest 2 to 3 kft above freezing when the best lift moves through, any precip will fall as all rain. So will continue to favor the cooler fcst guidance with highs generally in the mid to upper 40s. High pressure centered over the lower Ms Valley/northern Gulf Coast will begin to build east into the area overnight, resulting in low- level cold dry air advection.
A surface trof of low pressure will develop today along the eastern slopes of the Rockies.
A progressive low amplitude upper level high pressure ridge over the southern Rockies and plateau will move east across the southern high plains this afternoon and further east tonight. The high cloud shield should thicken tonight in southwest flow aloft in advance of an approaching sharp but positively tilted upper trough out of the Rockies. The result will be that minimum temperatures early Friday will be milder than recent nights, mostly around freezing. RMcQueen Tomorrow morning the upper level flow turns southwesterly as the next Pacific trough moves through the Four Corners and westward. However, ahead of the trough cloud coverage will increase and then clear from west to east by the afternoon. It should be noted that the warmer and breezy weather could create a small window of elevated fire weather conditions on the Caprock Friday afternoon.
Some of these locations may briefly touch freezing around sunrise.
526 AM EST Thu Dec 17 2020 Low pressure will push off of the Mid Atlantic coast this morning, then an upper level trough will swing over the state late today and tonight.
Cirrus level clouds will on the increase today in advance of next Pacific upper level trof which was along the west coast this morning.
Plenty of sunshine on Friday and warmer temperatures with highs in the 50s.
717 AM EST Thu Dec 17 2020 Low pressure will push off of the Mid Atlantic coast this morning, then an upper level trough will swing over the state late today and tonight.
129 PM CST Thu Dec 17 2020 A progressive upper-level flow pattern continues with the upper- level ridge moving quickly eastward out of the area.
1132 AM CST Thu Dec 17 2020 High pressure shifting across Illinois today, will bring quiet weather and cool temperatures. Warmer weather is expected on Friday, as southerly winds strengthen over the Midwest.
128 PM MST Thu Dec 17 2020 A split flow trough axis to our west will slide through the region tonight. Second, this will bring some more snow showers to the high country overnight.
232 PM CST Thu Dec 17 2020 After several cold days, the sunshine has returned today with mid level high pressure building over the area.
Temperatures today warm mainly into the 40s with the snow covered areas remaining on the low end of that while areas without snow cover extend higher into that range. High clouds move into the area late today and overnight ahead of an approaching trough aloft and a cold front that moves through the region early Friday. There will also be a slight chance of a light rain and snow mix over the far western portion of the forecast area over eastern Colorado as the upper trough moves across the region Friday afternoon.
Temperatures will top out in the low/mid 40s with west and northwest winds increasing to 5-10 mph. Temperatures are mainly in the mid to upper 20s with a 5 mph wind, making it feel a few degrees cooler. Temperatures in that area will remain in the low to mid 30s, but should fall a few degrees once clouds clear. Temperatures will range from the lower 40s today with lower 50s on Friday. The progressive pattern continues this weekend, as a longwave trough deepens across the Southern Plains.
Issued by National Weather Service State College PA 319 PM EST Thu Dec 17 2020 Cold air will linger in the wake of the snow storm with high pressure providing tranquil conditions into the weekend. High pressure takes control of the pattern Friday into the weekend with no significant wx expected.
A lull in activity is expected on Friday, though the next weak system is anticipated to arrive Friday evening across the central mountains of Idaho, and the higher elevations of Baker County, Oregon. Conditions improving from west to east through the day as a cold front moves through and precipitation ends. South or southeast surface winds 10-20 kt shifting to west behind cold front 18Z-24Z.
The best chances from some ZR probably exist over the southern CWA where temperatures aloft are progged to be warmer than further north. Sfc temps will be critical and probably right around freezing over that area later tonight when the pcpn potential looks more likely. Bufr soundings are pretty dry until the low level frontal zone approaches and then for a couple hours there looks be sufficient moisture for some light pcpn.
An Alberta clipper ahead of the upper wave will drop a cold front into Montana tonight. A colder airmass moves in with the high pressure following the front for Friday. Downslope kicks back in for the weekend with a flat ridge over the northern Rockies.
319 PM EST Thu Dec 17 2020 An upper level trough will swing over the state late today and tonight.
An upper trough moving east across Alberta and western Montana this afternoon will move into eastern Montana tonight. Cold air advection and some lower clouds will move in with the trough late tonight but clearing can be expected Friday.
Lows will range from the upper-30s along and north of I-4 into the low to mid-40s elsewhere, except for the coastal Martin County which is forecast in the lower-50s. Prevailing IFR/LIFR CIGs through this afternoon as a cold front moves southeastward across the terminals. Dry conditions will persist as the Cold Front moves across the local region today and tonight.
Temperatures have been slow to warm in the higher elevations of far northeast Georgia underneath the cloud layer, and is still below freezing in spots across the far northern tier. Some isolated flurries are possible through the remainder of the morning in the higher elevations of far north Georgia, but no accumulations are anticipated at this time. We do have an interesting synoptic wave setup over the Central/Eastern CONUS though, with a positively tilted low-level trough axis at h850 across GA at 12Z but the trough axis around h500 back across the Ozark and ArkLaTex region that wouldn't pass through the region until later tonight around 00 UTC. The low-level trough will help keep the thicker low-level clouds in place in through the early morning.
151 PM EST Thu Dec 17 2020 An upper level trough will swing over the state late today and tonight.
218 PM CST Thu Dec 17 2020 Weak ridging over Texas today will bump temperatures back up to near normal with highs breaking into the low 60s across the E Permian Basin and Trans Pecos. Increasing cloud cover this afternoon will help keep temperatures warmer overnight. An upper level trough moving in from off the coast of California will sweep through NM Friday afternoon. As this trough moves up and out of Texas Friday evening, an associated cold front will plunge temperatures Friday night.
Chilly start to this morning with temps in the lower 30s, which is 10-15 degrees cooler than yesterday. Despite the sunshine, CAA will keep daytime highs in the lower 40s. Temperatures will likely fall well down into the 20s for most locations overnight, which could create freezing fog conditions in those locations if it does develop. However, the extent and longevity of any freezing fog development remains uncertain at this time. High clouds should begin to increase late in the day, but temperatures will be warmer than today due to low-lvl WAA.
Much like last night, lows will fall into the lower 20s where skies are clear. Clouds will begin to increase late Friday ahead of a sharp mid- level trough entering the western high Plains.
The trough will swing by to our north through the Four Corners region into New Mexico on Friday resulting in an 8 to 10 degree temperature drop compared to today mainly from Tucson westward.
12z KOUN RAOB sampled notably warmer low level temps with the warming verified locally with morning ACARS data at KTUL. This support the forecast of warmer temps today though somewhat tempered within the corridor of the heaviest snowfall along and south of Interstate 44.
Southerly winds at 15-20mph sustained with gusts around 35mph Another calm cool day for our area as we find ourselves on the backside of the trough that came through yesterday. Mild ridging over the next couple of days keeps the weather somewhat quiet during the day Friday.
Garuckas Chattanooga Airport, TN 26 48 28 50 40 / 0 0 0 20 40 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 25 43 27 49 38 / 10 0 0 10 30 Oak Ridge, TN 24 44 27 48 38 / 0 0 0 10 40 Tri Cities Airport, TN 24 40 24 48 34 / 10 0 0 10 30.
349 PM EST Thu Dec 17 2020 Improving conditions expected across the region tonight as high pressure settles in the wake of our impressive coastal system. Some very light snows will remain across eastern VT through the next hour, but drier air is quickly moving in as high pressure noses down from Canada. This should keep temperatures in the vicinity of Lake Champlain slight warmer than the remainder of the area with overnight lows in the upper single digits to low teens. Upper level ridging will crest overhead tomorrow with strong subsidence leading to clear and sunny skies and temperatures in the upper teens to low 20s.
Highs will be in the lower 60s. Otherwise, expect a warmer night tonight with lows in the upper 30s and lower 40s.
130 PM CST Thu Dec 17 2020 (Issued 130 PM CST Thu Dec 17 2020) Tonight and Friday: The high pressure ridge will shift off to the east this period. Progs all show this lifting away to the northeast as the night goes on with the lower level flow becoming more southwest.
Skies should become clear quickly after the 500 mb trough axis clears the area and dry northwesterly flow aloft builds in over the area. Warming has been limited today underneath this stratus deck, and as a result, high temperatures are still expected to reach only into the 40s at the highest this afternoon. Highs only of mid to upper 30s are moreover expected in the higher elevations of far north Georgia.
1035 AM CST Thu Dec 17 2020 High pressure shifting across Illinois today, will bring quiet weather and cool temperatures. Warmer weather is expected on Friday, as southerly winds strengthen over the Midwest.
Given a cold start I knocked a degree or two off lows tonight which places most of the area away from the beaches at or below freezing tngt.
Temperatures have risen into the lower 30s where the clouds have moved away from.
107 PM EST Thu Dec 17 2020 An upper level trough will move through the area today and result in considerable clouds and cool temperatures. A high pressure ridge will build in behind the trough from the southern Plains into the weekend.
256 PM EST Thu Dec 17 2020 A cold front has moved south of the Marco Island Airport as noted with falling dewpoints and will begin to pass through the Keys within the next couple hours. Pre-frontal convergence has supported a narrow broken band of showers now moving southeast through the Lower Keys and western Straits. Temperatures peaked in the lower 80s ahead of the front, with an outlier temperature of 86 on the north end of Big Pine Key RAWS where favorable offshore west-southwest winds continued. High pressure will quickly translate to the Carolina coast this weekend, allowing decreasing winds to clock around to easterly. Mostly zonal or weakly anticyclonic flow will pass aloft with a couple disturbances helping to carve a broad trough into the Gulf coastal states by the end of the weekend.
1048 AM EST Thu Dec 17 2020 Low pressure will push off of the Mid Atlantic coast this morning, then an upper level trough will swing over the state late today and tonight.
1025 AM MST Thu Dec 17 2020 Upper ridging covers the western CONUS, with a low pressure system pushing into the Pacific Northwest. Warm air advection is expected today ahead of the approaching trough, allowing temperatures to warm into the 40s. Snow will end early Friday morning as trough shifts eastward. A cold front will cross the northern plains Friday.