Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
250 AM MDT Sat Jul 27 2019 An upper level ridge moves across Eastern Montana today. South winds ahead of the cold front will bring moisture into SE Montana today with the airmass becoming unstable enough for a few thunderstorms in the SE part of the forecast area late this afternoon. The cold front is forecasted by the models to move through NE Montana late tonight. An upper trough moves through the area late tonight and Sunday morning. Sunday will be windy and cooler with gusty NW winds. High pressure moves into the area Sunday Night diminishing the winds.
Upper level ridging will generally prevail across the intermountain west and high plains into early August, with western Kansas situated on the eastern edge. Moisture will increase a little in the wake of the cold front Sunday.
Updated at 300 AM EDT Sat Jul 27 2019 Expect another dry day as high pressure continues to control the region. Updated at 340 AM EDT Sat Jul 27 2019 Mid-level ridging will hold sway across the region at the beginning of the forecast period.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST THROUGH THE Surface wave moving off the east central Fl coast in combination with high pressure wedging from New England into the deep south will provide a moist Ne Flow across the region today.
A cold front was moving through northwest WI, and was deliniated by a modest drop in dew points and a wind shift to the west. Daytime heating, with highs reaching the lower to middle 80s, will cause CAPE to increase to 1000-1500 j/kg ahead of the boundary. A weak ridge of high pressure will arrive tonight, along with a cooler, drier air mass over northern WI. On Sunday, dry conditions are expected for most of the morning, but scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop as a warm front approaches in the afternoon. The severe threat may ramp up in our northwest counties during the evening, as wind fields strengthen ahead of a deepening low pressure system, and strong upper level dynamics arrive. Highs on Sunday should reach the lower to middle 80s, expect upper 70s near Lake Michigan.
The wind regime featuring deep S-SW flow is largely unchanged, with high pressure ridge to the south and troughing to our north and west extending northward across the eastern seaboard of the U. Lows temps will be in the low to mid 70s. The Volusia waters will see a light onshore wind tonight while winds to the south will be more southerly around 10 kt with a lingering frontal trough remaining.
/issued 337 AM CDT Sat Jul 27 2019/ The center of the high pressure ridge continues to spin between Albuquerque, NM and Tuscon, AZ on the 00Z RAOB analysis.
A slightly warmer day can be expected as highs should top out in the lower 90s.
07Z water vapor imagery showed the center of an upper ridge over southeastern AZ and southwestern NM. Further north within the mean westerlies were a couple of upper lows, one north of Lake Superior and another moving across British Columbia. At the surface, low pressure remained within the lee of the central Rockies with high pressure over the southeastern U. So the high temp forecast is a persistence forecast with readings likely around 90 over eastern KS and into the mid 90s across north central KS. Lows tonight may be a degree or two warmer than this morning as models prog a little stronger pressure gradient.
Starting around early afternoon daytime heating combined with a weak upper level disturbance should initiate new convection along the front that slowly drifts south into the highway 20 corridor.
As of early Saturday morning, a wave of low pressure and associated enhanced moisture was rotating northward across central Utah. As we go through the day Saturday, some of this activity should slide into/develop across far south and southeast Idaho, with the best chances across the higher terrain areas. The wave of low pressure will exit the area Saturday night leaving dry and toasty conditions for Sunday.
Afternoon convection will likely develop along the weak cold front to our west on Sunday, with the activity potentially moving into northeast Oklahoma later Sunday night.
Dewpoints have risen into the low to mid 70s along and south of boundary, and these higher dewpoints will overspread central Louisiana and interior southeast Texas as the day progresses with the boundary easing further north. Additionally, area will remain under a weakness aloft between eastern periphery of the mid and upper level southwest CONUS/Mexico high and lingering east CONUS trof.
Water vapor imagery shows the upper level ridge over southern Arizona where it will generally stay through the weekend.
544 AM EDT Sat Jul 27 2019 High pressure should maintain mainly dry and seasonable weather today.
As the weak cold front continues its trek E it would trigger scattered thunderstorms that'll gradually increase it pushes E across the KS/MO border early Mon morning. the upper ridge would greatly amplify as it pushes from the Desert Southwest into the central third of the CONUS.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 90 67 89 70 / 10 10 10 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 89 66 87 67 / 10 10 10 10 Oak Ridge, TN 89 65 89 67 / 10 10 10 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 87 61 86 62 / 10 10 10 10.
Much drier air in place today though compared to the last few days, so coverage should be on the low side.
High temps should be cooler today due to the expected cloud cover.
This will proceed a weak cool front and associated upper trough which will bring a small chance for thunderstorms to areas primarily northwest of the tri cities late tonight. Model guidance is in good agreement tracking a weak upper trough and associated cool front across the local area Sunday.
Patchy fog has developed across parts of southeast MO and southwest IL where surface winds were near calm and temperatures have fallen into the lower to middle 60s with just some thin, high level cloudiness. Tranquil, dry weather will continue into Sunday with an upper level ridge extending northeastward from the southwestern US into MO, and persistent surface ridging extending westward into southeast MO.
These winds will help transport a bit warmer airmass over the area today and on Sunday. Temperatures today are likely to top out a few degrees warmer than Fridays highs, which should result in most areas getting into the upper 80s. A bit warmer conditions are then expected for Sunday, when some lower 90s are likely. While the area is expected to remain thunderstorm free for most of the day, thunderstorms are expected to develop later this afternoon to our north over portions of southern WI, in response to a stalling surface cold frontal boundary.
500mb high pressure centered over the Desert Southwest will dominate much of the pattern through the weekend, keeping most locations hot and dry. In the low-levels, however, enough moisture will allow isolated showers and storms to develop today across the marine areas. On Sunday, temperatures may be a degree or so warmer with isolated showers or storms possible again.
At 2 AM, weak transient ridging was beginning to build over Nebraska and Iowa. At the surface, a weak frontal boundary extended from the High Plains of Colorado to Minnesota, with a few thunderstorms ongoing near the boundary to our east and west. Weak ridging aloft should contribute to standard summer conditions across Nebraska and Iowa today.
Meanwhile aloft, the lower Mississippi Valley will remain in a de facto trough flanked by large amplitude ridging in the western states and the Bermuda Ridge over the Atlantic. Little day-to-day change for the next 7-8 days as the trough aloft remains in place and diurnal land- sea breeze process is the main weather moderator for this forecast period.
/Issued 323 AM CDT Sat Jul 27 2019/ The center of the monsoonal upper high is showing signs of shifting to southern Arizona this morning, though the main ridge axis still extends north-northeast up to Colorado and Wyoming. As the high has relocated further south, a disturbance evident on water vapor is presently transiting across Nevada and Utah.
Most other locations remained under 95 degrees, but with continued ample sunshine, and the ridge persisting over the area, would expect to see temperatures warm up a degree or two across the board today, with more locations in the mid 90s. And with southeast flow increasing moisture, overnight lows will also be warmer, mainly in the low 70s.
VFR conditions continue through the period with high pressure in control.
High pressure will build today, yielding hot and dry weather for the interior through Sunday.
/Today through Sunday Night/ Southerly flow will return to the region today resulting in warmer temperatures and increasing humidity. Afternoon highs should warm into the lower 90s areawide with partly cloudy conditions. Temperatures will continue to moderate tonight, with overnight lows falling into the lower 70s. By Sunday, we will continue to see a modification of the low level airmass in the form of higher dewpoints which will result in more humid conditions. Afternoon highs will warm into the lower 90s across the region again.
Sunday night will begin with the surface and 500mb trough set up just to our east.
754 AM EDT Sat Jul 27 2019 High pressure should maintain mainly dry and seasonable weather today.
400 PM CDT Sat Jul 27 2019 The slow warming trend continued this afternoon with temps running a few degrees warmer compared to 24-hrs ago. Southerly flow this afternoon was also helping to lift moisture back into the region with dewpoints in the low/upper 60s over Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
921 AM PDT Sat Jul 27 2019 A cold front will bring breezy winds across the region today. An upper level trough is currently moving across the north Cascades and will drag a cold front through the region this morning. Tobin 12Z TAFS: A cold front will move in today delivering breezy west to southwest winds.
A mostly dry cold front is making its way across Montana and Idaho this afternoon.
This disturbance will rotate around the upper high to our west and bring whats left of the precipitation to our western areas tonight.
1102 AM PDT Sat Jul 27 2019 A cold front will bring breezy winds across the region today. An upper level trough is moving rapidly across eastern Washington. A couple of weak disturbances will try to move through the ridge of high pressure that will be anchored over western MT, but right now none of them will be strong enough for anything but some increased Gap winds in the Cascades. Tobin 18Z TAFS: A cold front is moving rapidly through eastern Washington. Along the lower east slopes gusts 30-35kts will be possible at KEAT.
304 PM CDT Sat Jul 27 2019 A weak mid-level wave will swing into the High Plains tonight and will help initiate convection to the west. I expect this activity to shift east overnight into Sunday ahead of a weak cold front. I was a bit more liberal with POPs ahead of the cold front, given the strong elevated warm air advection nature of the scenario. The best chance of precip will be along the cold front as it moves through during the day on Sunday. Most short term numerical models are giving us at least some spotty light precip with the cold front passage. Some models like the NAMnest are even showing a chance of evening elevated convection behind the cold front, so this is something to watch.
343 PM EDT Sat Jul 27 2019 Strong ridging continues across the eastern US this afternoon with another round of diurnally forced CU across the region. The ridge will hold through Sunday night, but a stray shower or two cannot be ruled out near the Virginia border again Sunday afternoon.
We will be watching for additional isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm development in vicinity of the leeside trough across eastern Colorado, however the POP grids for southwest and far west central KS will be less than 15 percent (no mention of storms in the official forecast for this evening). The convergence along the trough/front will be the focus for thunderstorm development by mid to late afternoon (perhaps sooner).
450 PM EDT Sat Jul 27 2019 Dry and seasonable weather will continue through early Sunday under high pressure.
137 PM PDT Sat Jul 27 2019 Hot and dry weather continues this weekend under high pressure.
The mid/upper level high is currently located directly over the region with weak steering flow aloft. A similar scenario is expected Sunday as the mid/upper high begins to drift northward with the bulk of the showers and thunderstorms once again to the south and east of Tucson.
TFJ An upper level ridge moves across Eastern Montana today. South winds ahead of the cold front will bring moisture into SE Montana today with the airmass becoming unstable enough for a few thunderstorms in the SE part of the forecast area late this afternoon. The cold front is forecasted by the models to move through NE Montana late tonight. An upper trough moves through the area late tonight and Sunday morning. Sunday will be windy and cooler with gusty NW winds. High pressure moves into the area Sunday Night diminishing the winds.
213 PM CDT Sat Jul 27 2019 High pressure over the SE U. Basically the same theme, building ridge center near the Four Corners region, with a trof over the east U.
Issued at |245 PM CDT Sat Jul 27 2019 The longer term looks cooler than normal through at least midweek. High pressure builds in behind the Sunday trough bringing drier dewpoints on breezy northwest winds. The first half of the week looks to remain cool and dry as high pressure settles over the western Great Lakes.
Temps will be typical of late July, but dewpoints remain fairly manageable in the lower/mid 60s, and this will allow for some deep mixing. Updated at 235 PM EDT Sat Jul 27 2019 A weak cold front will begin moving into the Midwest to start the week.
258 PM MDT Sat Jul 27 2019 A cold front will move eastward through the region tonight, producing scattered thunderstorms over Southwest MT. Expect slightly cooler temperatures and lighter winds on Sunday.
147 PM CDT Sat Jul 27 2019 At 2 AM, weak transient ridging was beginning to build over Nebraska and Iowa. At the surface, a weak frontal boundary extended from the High Plains of Colorado to Minnesota, with a few thunderstorms ongoing near the boundary to our east and west. Weak ridging aloft should contribute to standard summer conditions across Nebraska and Iowa today.
The nearest cold front is well to the north over northwestern Iowa and with no upper level disturbances expected and modest moisture content in the column for late July, precipitation chances should be held close to nil. Patchy fog has developed across parts of southeast MO and southwest IL where surface winds were near calm and temperatures have fallen into the lower to middle 60s with just some thin, high level cloudiness. Tranquil, dry weather will continue into Sunday with an upper level ridge extending northeastward from the southwestern US into MO, and persistent surface ridging extending westward into southeast MO.
1144 AM EDT Sat Jul 27 2019 High pressure should maintain mainly dry and seasonable weather today.
Concur with deterministic output that the upper pattern will remain quasi-stationary during the period, with an upper ridge over the SWRN CONUS and an upper trough over the WRN/CNTRL Gulf of Mexico.
As of 10 AM CDT, sunny skies prevail with temperatures in the lower to middle 80s at most locations.
403 PM EDT Sat Jul 27 2019 High pressure will move offshore resulting in an increasing heat and humidity the next few days.
325 PM CDT Sat Jul 27 2019 Sfc obs currently show the warm front now up through the I-10 and US 190 corridors this afternoon with a good srly flow in place behind the boundary. Water vapor imagery shows good ridging remaining well to our west while the region lies in a bit of a weakness left behind by the previous trof. Highs tomorrow are expected to be a degree or two cooler with enhanced cloud cover/precip coverage. Sunday night looks to be a repeat of tonight, although with mins perhaps a degree or two warmer. nothing is really showing up yet at the lower-levels/sfc but could be something worth watching. With high pressure remaining in control, a mainly light onshore flow is expected through the period.
South Central TX has started to bounce back to reality from an unusual cold front that brought a cooler and unseasonably dry airmass over the region.
Dry weather should continue through Sunday night with warmer than normal temperatures expected.
134 PM EDT Sat Jul 27 2019 High pressure should maintain mainly dry and seasonable weather today.
Yesterday's cold front has brought cooler temperatures and higher humidity to the region, but the winds remain gusty for areas in and around the Columbia Basin. Afternoon temperatures will be around 10 degrees cooler than yesterday with highs in the mid-70s to mid-80s (85 to 90 Lower Columbia Basin). An upper level trough traveling across British Columbia will help induce the marine push. Temperatures will be slightly warmer.
205 PM MDT Sat Jul 27 2019 A trough will move through NW CO this evening providing the uplift to fire thunderstorms over the northern mountains and plateaus. At the same time drier airs is cutting into the area, so convection should be limited to the higher terrain. High pressure will build north and become centered over the Great Basin and southwest U.
250 PM CDT Sat Jul 27 2019 a broad upper level ridge axis continued to remain stationary across the far southwestern US. Tonight through Sunday night, the upper level trough across the Pacific Northwest will move east-southeast across the northern and central Plains Sunday afternoon. The northern stream H5 trough will phase with a shorter-wave length trough currently across NV and UT on Sunday. A surface cold front will also push southeast across western NE into western KS Sunday afternoon.
Subsidence behind the trough axis should diminish any shower activity by noon for much of the area, except the Uintas and southwest Wyoming where it will linger in the afternoon.
314 PM CDT Sat Jul 27 2019 High pressure currently over the area will get pushed eastward this evening as a low pressure system and associated frontal boundary approach. Lows Sunday night will range from the mid 50s west to the lower 60s east.
149 PM MDT Sat Jul 27 2019 The roller coaster ride of ridge/trough/ridge continues for the area. Current chapter is a trough moving in that has the area under a SW flow. Temperatures will be knocked down on Sunday by about 15 degrees from today, thanks to the upper trough overhead.
238 PM CDT Sat Jul 27 2019 The upper level pattern remains nearly the same as the past several days with an upper ridge over the Desert Southwest and a persistent trough along the eastern seaboard. Within this storm track were two short wave troughs. high pressure was centered along the east coast while a cold front was located from the Great Lakes across northern Iowa into southwest Nebraska.
321 PM EDT Sat Jul 27 2019 High pressure will remain over Pennsylvania through tonight. A weak, dying cold front will push into the region late Sunday.
Some wind gusts up to 15 mph may be possible for central Georgia this afternoon, but other wise winds will be light and variable to calm through Sunday night as the center of the high pressure creeps into North Georgia.
The weather over the upcoming week will be mainly influence by the position of the upper level high over the southwest U.
234 PM CDT Sat Jul 27 2019 High pressure aloft will continue to build west of the area today and dominate our weather for both the short and extended periods. Similar to yesterday evening, a weak disturbance rounding the high will help initiate rain showers and thunderstorms in far eastern NM and just as with last evening as they try to push into our CWA they will begin lose their strengthen and either completely dying out or remain high based in nature. Tomorrow, the persistent high will begin to shift further west and south placing the CWA on the periphery of the high. As this occurs a weak upper trough will move through the central Plains and send an associated weak surface front through the OK/TX Panhandles and eastern NM late Sunday.
With high pressure remaining in control, dry conditions and temperatures near those usual for late July will continue. Models this run continue to maintain the center of the upper high, mainly over the four corners region of the desert southwest. Aside from a minor wobble in the position of the center of the upper ridge, its position doesn't change. Meanwhile, at 850mb, a thermal ridge will expand further each afternoon, from the west, over West Central Texas; this will help produce afternoon highs back above those usual for late July and early August, by mid week.
South of the front, temperatures will reach the low 90s this afternoon. Good agreement that ML CAPE values will be 2000+ J/Kg this afternoon along with dewpoints in the low 70s pooling along the front. After the passage of the cold front, temperatures in the low to mid 80s are expected for the start of the week.
High pressure currently over the area will get pushed eastward this evening as a low pressure system and associated frontal boundary approach. Lows Sunday night will range from the mid 50s west to the lower 60s east.
Stratus has almost completely dissipated along the coast and the adjacent waters as of early this afternoon, with high pressure yielding mostly sunny skies across northwest California. Another sunny and hot day is on tap for Sunday, with interior temperatures likely running a few degrees cooler than this afternoon. A more pronounced cooling trend will then commence for the beginning of the work week as large scale troughing takes hold over the eastern Pacific.
A rather dry airmass will remain in place across our region through Sunday despite the presence of a weak upper level trough that will be nosing southwestward through our area. Lows tonight will range from the upper 60s to the lower 70s over interior areas, and in the lower to mid 70s along the coast/beaches. Highs Sunday afternoon should once again range in the lower to mid 90s inland and in the upper 80s to around 90 along the immediate coast and beaches.
642 PM CDT Sat Jul 27 2019 The upper level pattern remains nearly the same as the past several days with an upper ridge over the Desert Southwest and a persistent trough along the eastern seaboard. Within this storm track were two short wave troughs. high pressure was centered along the east coast while a cold front was located from the Great Lakes across northern Iowa into southwest Nebraska.
547 PM MDT Sat Jul 27 2019 A trough will move through NW CO this evening providing the uplift to fire thunderstorms over the northern mountains and plateaus. At the same time drier airs is cutting into the area, so convection should be limited to the higher terrain. High pressure will build north and become centered over the Great Basin and southwest U.
Lows in the lower to mid 70s. Light onshore flow expected this evening then expected a trough to develop across the waters by late tonight.
The forecast area will enjoy another great evening and overnight period with beautiful subsident air within the presence of a massive eastern states ridge. Minimum temperature is still on track to settle into the lower and middle 60s north and upper 60s south by daybreak Sunday.
A weak mid-level wave will swing into the High Plains tonight and will help initiate convection to the west. I expect this activity to shift east overnight into Sunday ahead of a weak cold front. I was a bit more liberal with POPs ahead of the cold front, given the strong elevated warm air advection nature of the scenario. The best chance of precip will be along the cold front as it moves through during the day on Sunday. Most short term numerical models are giving us at least some spotty light precip with the cold front passage. Some models like the NAMnest are even showing a chance of evening elevated convection behind the cold front, so this is something to watch.
A ridge of high pressure will build over the Great Basin tomorrow, bringing dry and warmer conditions to the area.
1029 PM EDT Sat Jul 27 2019 A weak, dying cold front will push into the region late Sunday.
Temperatures were on track and will bottom out near normal in the west and several degrees cooler than normal in the east.