Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
With high dew points in the lower 70s heat index values are in the mid to upper 90s. Thursday a weak frontal system moves into the Ohio Valley and a sharp upper trough will dip south into Kentucky. The southerly flow around the Bermuda high will increase moisture ahead of this trough and help to enhance shower and thunderstorm activity Thursday afternoon and evening.
At the upper levels, western and central North Dakota is situated on the eastern slope of a broad western ridge, who's axis is located over central Montana. The ridge axis will slowly nudge closer to the North Dakota/Montana border overnight. The ridge axis moves overhead on Thursday, promoting hot temperatures with highs mainly in the 90s. A few highs in the lower triple digits are possible across portions of the west and south central as clouds should be minimal. The HRRR-Smoke model continues to show plenty of smoke aloft moving in Thursday (from Montana/Canadian wildfires) which will potentially keep highs a couple degrees cooler than we would typically anticipate.
This has resulted in cooler temperatures than previously forecast for most areas along and south of the Missouri River. The cold front will slowly work through the area overnight tonight with some showers lingering Thursday morning.
High temperatures are forecast to remain in the low to mid 90s inland and upper 80s to near 90 along area beaches over the next several days. Latest analysis shows high pressure extending over the area from offshore, with troughing inland and weak frontal boundary lingering across SE VA. Late tonight, a plume of moisture will get pulled north off the eastern Gulf/western Atlantic as an upper low develops along the north-central Gulf Coast. Summertime pattern continues Thursday as upper ridge continues to build westward over the area.
The upper level ridge attempts to regain a footing in the central plains by the end of the work week and temps will climb.
1206 PM MDT Wed Aug 3 2022 The subtropical ridge will expand northward today and Thursday. On Thursday, the subtropical ridge continues to build into the region ahead of trough pulling into the Pacific Northwest.
(Tonight) Plume of deep moisture continues to cover much of the lower MS and deep South. Overnight lows will be in the lower 70s for most, with a few upper 60s atop the Cumberland and Brindley plateaus.
We currently have a ridge set up over the Four corners region which is pumping in moisture from the Gulf of California.
(This afternoon through Thursday night) Upper level ridging will continue to dominate the short-term, with water vapor imagery showing the ridge centered across New Mexico this afternoon. WV also shows better mid-level monsoonal moisture rounding the eastern edge of the ridge into western Texas. Increased heights under close proximity to the center of the ridge along with 850mb temperatures peaking near 31-34C will yield a hot day today, with many locations reaching the triple digits, excluding the higher terrain. The ridge begins to gradually slide northeastward for Thursday with subtly lower thickness and allowing for increased low-level moisture. These together will keep tomorrow's high temperatures a few degrees cooler than today, though still reaching the century mark along the Pecos/Rio Grande River valleys and much of the Permian Basin.
Otherwise, expect high temps in the low to mid 90s with lows in the low to mid 70s.
1100 AM MDT Wed Aug 3 2022 Upper air analysis has northwest flow over the region, with mild ridging over the western CONUS. Boundary is expected to move through the region this morning as high pressure settles in over the Dakotas. As the high slides east of us today, increasing 850mb southerly flow may help spark some showers/storms late afternoon into the evening, however HRRR smoke shows increasing upper level smoke in the region, which may inhibit any development.
232 PM CDT Wed Aug 3 2022 Key Messages: - Storm chances into this evening - Fog potential tonight - Precipitation chances return over weekend Storm Chances - This Afternoon The CAMs continues to show that there will be scattered showers and storms along the cold front as it moves southeast through the region. With the best forcing over Wisconsin, kept the higher rain chances there. Tonight - Fog Potential High pressure will build across the region. This Weekend - next round for showers/storms Broad upper-level ridging builds over the region heading into the weekend.
1105 AM CDT Wed Aug 3 2022 (Today and tonight) Upper level ridge centered over New Mexico and Arizona will expand eastward into west Texas today. The ridging aloft combined with slightly higher 850 mb temperatures will lead to afternoon highs a couple of degrees warmer than yesterday.
Lows during this time will be a touch cooler than seasonal norms, as values fall into the mid 50s to low 60s.
- Slightly cooler Thursday with heat building back in for the weekend. As of 230, mid level water vapor imagery shows the upper-level trough axis bisecting northeastern Kansas. Muggy conditions still persist as dewpoints have stayed in the low to mid 70s. Temperatures will be slightly cooler than previous few days with highs in the lower 90s across northeast Kansas.
(This evening through Thursday) Heat indices up to or exceeding 105 degrees will be possible this afternoon, as our Heat Advisory will remain in effect through the mid-evening hours across all but northwest Oklahoma which should stay a couple of degrees cooler with some mid-level cloudiness. Currently seeing some weak isolated showers and thunderstorms developing along a surface boundary/cold front stretched across central Kansas through the Oklahoma & Texas Panhandles near Beaver Oklahoma. As far as heat on Thursday, some of our area may again reach Heat Advisory criteria based on the NBM heat indices, even though some increasing cloud cover should keep the dry bulb temperatures a few degrees cooler during the afternoon.
Current high temperature forecast is for upper 80s to lower 90s across the lower elevations and 80s higher elevations which looks good.
/Updated at 1253 PM CDT Wed Aug 03 2022/ High pressure will remain over the area through Wednesday night. Low temperatures will be in the lower 70s. A trough will move through the Tennessee River Valley overnight tonight into Thursday morning. A few models are trying to show a MCS type feature moving south along this trough reaching northern MS by Thursday afternoon.
255 PM CDT Wed Aug 3 2022 A cold front to the NW over NW IA and southern MN has sparked showers and storms across the area this morning and into the afternoon. Thursday, high pressure will be building into the area from the NW with plenty of sunshine. Highs will be in the 80s, but with just a light NE breeze and lingering humidity, it will feel slightly warmer.
Some showers and thunderstorms are possible across northeast Arkansas and the Missouri Bootheel this evening along a pre-frontal trough.
The clouds and winds will diminish as we move into the evening hours as an area of high pressure builds into the region.
(This evening through Thursday Night) An upper-level weakness across the Gulf of Mexico will drift westward along the southern periphery of the upper-ridge that has been prevailing over the region. Increased instability can be expected across the ArkLaTex through Thursday night as a trough axis extends north from the center of the upper-low in the gulf through the heart of the ArkLaTex. Thus, expect increased rain chances areawide on Thursday afternoon into Thursday night with the highest pops across north-central and northeast Louisiana. Latest NBM run has come in slightly cooler with afternoon highs across Arkansas and Louisiana forecast to struggle to reach the mid 90s on Thursday afternoon. The warmest locations will be across east and northeast Texas which will likely remain under a stronger influence of the ridge and experience less cloud cover thus allowing for temperatures to approach 100 degrees.
Increasing southerly flow will bring another hot day across the western CWA where highs should reach the upper 90s, to the lower 100s.
WV satellite shows an upper high to our west, with northwesterly flow aloft over the CWA.
258 PM EDT Wed Aug 3 2022 A typical summertime pattern is expected for the short-term across GA as high pressure and weak upper riding sets up across the southeast. Thinking the highest PoPs today will remain in these areas due to slightly higher PWs and greater differential heating from less cloud cover.
Tonight and Thursday The main concern in the short-term portion of the forecast will be the potential for showers and storms along a cold front this afternoon. Radar imagery this afternoon shows a broken line of thunderstorms developing along a cold front that stretches from the western UP through eastern Vilas and Oneida counties, then down toward La Crosse. Tonight into Thursday: The cold front will pass quickly to the east/southeast of the area early this evening, leading to clearing skies and much more comfortable conditions as drier air arrives. High pressure will build across much of Wisconsin overnight through Thursday allowing quiet conditions to continue across the area under mostly clear skies.
This has helped push deeper moisture in the lowest few thousand feet of the atmosphere northward through Yavapai and Gila counties and up onto the Mogollon Rim/White Mountains. Mid level lapse rates are still steep, left over from the warmer and more deeply mixed atmosphere yesterday. This is coupled with an expected eastward retreat of the mid-level high center, which will produce cooler mid-level temperatures. A recipe for a more more active day, especially south of the Mogollon Rim where the higher moisture values will pool.
Concur with deterministic NWP model runs that the upper high pressure system will meander over the southwestern U. /Four Corners Region/SRN Plains/SRN Rockies during the period, while an upper level inverted trough moves westward across the central/western Gulf of Mexico.
Gusty northwest winds will also develop ahead of a cold front. Storms that develop off the higher terrain of central Montana may produce damaging winds as they track northeast.
An associated cold front will push through the area during the evening and overnight hours.
606 PM CDT Wed Aug 3 2022 Key Messages: - Storm chances into this evening - Fog potential tonight - Precipitation chances return over weekend Storm Chances - This Afternoon The CAMs continues to show that there will be scattered showers and storms along the cold front as it moves southeast through the region. With the best forcing over Wisconsin, kept the higher rain chances there. Tonight - Fog Potential High pressure will build across the region. This Weekend - next round for showers/storms Broad upper-level ridging builds over the region heading into the weekend.
High temperatures are forecast to remain in the low to mid 90s inland and upper 80s to near 90 along area beaches over the next several days. Late tonight, a plume of moisture will get pulled north off the eastern Gulf/western Atlantic as an upper low develops along the north-central Gulf Coast. Summertime pattern continues Thursday as upper ridge continues to build westward over the area.
/issued 244 PM CDT Wed Aug 3 2022/ SHORT TERM (Tonight through Thursday Night): Midlevel high pressure centered over the Four Corners region will continue to build across Deep South Texas through the short term period.
542 PM MDT Wed Aug 3 2022 Isolated thunderstorms have begun developing this afternoon mainly over the higher terrain of the Laramie Range.
High pressure has lifted northward today and is forecast to build back in to the Keys tomorrow.
--Slightly cooler/less humid Thursday. The morning/early afternoon activity has pretty much all but ended though some redevelopment remains possible this afternoon into early evening over south central into southeast Iowa as the cold front continues to progress through the state. With the cold front slow to progress through the state today, conditions have been able to warm into the low 90s over much of central Iowa, with temperatures in the 80s far north behind the front and far south where cloud cover remains more prevalent. By tonight, the warm/humid conditions of the last few days will begin to ease as the cold front pushes completely through the state bringing clearing skies, dry conditions and cooler temperatures with low temperatures in the mid 50s northwest to mid 60s southeast.
The higher chances are far inland where we expect the best overlap of calm winds and the more favorable condensation pressure deficits. Otherwise, high pressure will prevail both surface and aloft, leading to rainfree conditions. Aloft, mid-lvl ridging will generally extend across the western Atlantic to the Southeast United States. At the sfc, high pressure will persist across much of the region while lee troughing occurs well inland.
Temperatures today have been a bit cooler and yet, still quite warm for much of western Montana and north central Idaho. Keep this in mind and continue to be vigilant to doing your part to prevent new fires! Later Thursday afternoon and evening, a cold front will sweep through the Northern Rockies and help to cool temperatures even further going into the weekend.
627 PM CDT Wed Aug 3 2022 (Tonight) Plume of deep moisture continues to cover much of the lower MS and deep South. Overnight lows will be in the lower 70s for most, with a few upper 60s atop the Cumberland and Brindley plateaus.
703 PM CDT Wed Aug 3 2022 (This evening through Thursday) Heat indices up to or exceeding 105 degrees will be possible this afternoon, as our Heat Advisory will remain in effect through the mid-evening hours across all but northwest Oklahoma which should stay a couple of degrees cooler with some mid-level cloudiness. Currently seeing some weak isolated showers and thunderstorms developing along a surface boundary/cold front stretched across central Kansas through the Oklahoma & Texas Panhandles near Beaver Oklahoma. As far as heat on Thursday, some of our area may again reach Heat Advisory criteria based on the NBM heat indices, even though some increasing cloud cover should keep the dry bulb temperatures a few degrees cooler during the afternoon.
With high temps again in the low-mid 90's, instability will be sufficient for another round of afternoon showers and storms.
As upper ridging remains dominant, expect another hot and mostly sunny day tomorrow with the Heat Advisory in effect until 8 PM Thursday for all of North & Central Texas. /Issued 257 PM CDT Wed Aug 3 2022/ /Through Wednesday AM/ The heat and minimal rain chances continue throughout the rest of the week(and weekend for a good portion of the region), as the mid-level ridge generally dominates overhead.
High temperatures are forecast to remain in the low to mid 90s inland and upper 80s to near 90 along area beaches over the next several days. Otherwise, expect a mostly dry forecast overnight with high pressure ridging in from offshore. Late tonight, a plume of moisture will get pulled north off the eastern Gulf/western Atlantic as an upper low develops along the north-central Gulf Coast. Summertime pattern continues Thursday as upper ridge continues to build westward over the area.
A cold front to the NW over NW IA and southern MN has sparked showers and storms across the area this morning and into the afternoon. Thursday, high pressure will be building into the area from the NW with plenty of sunshine. Highs will be in the 80s, but with just a light NE breeze and lingering humidity, it will feel slightly warmer.
Diegan Chattanooga Airport, TN 72 91 73 91 73 / 30 40 20 50 20 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 70 91 72 89 72 / 30 50 20 70 30 Oak Ridge, TN 70 90 72 89 71 / 20 40 20 70 30 Tri Cities Airport, TN 68 89 69 86 69 / 20 60 20 70 30.
As this system slowly works it's way west, upper level ridging will nose in behind the system from the east. 5 inches and subsidence from the expanding ridge, rain will a little harder to come by. With the early start to storms on Thursday, expect temperatures west of I-65 to remain in the upper 80s and climb into the low 90s east of I-65 where rain chances are lower. Friday will be a tad warmer as storms will likely wait later into the afternoon to develop.
412 AM EDT Thu Aug 4 2022 A cold front stalls south of Lake Erie today and becomes the path for weak low pressure to follow. High pressure attempts to build into the region from the west on Friday.
A quiet night throughout the area, thanks to a beautiful post frontal airmass and high pressure moving in from the northwest. Temperatures are still in the low to mid 70s through much of the area.
(This afternoon through Friday Night) Mid level ridging is fairly pronounced this afternoon and extends from the Carolinas westward through our area. On Friday, an overall weakness within the adjacent ridges will continue.
High pressure will sit firmly over the area tonight into Friday morning giving warm, but dry conditions. The exception will be this afternoon as a few showers form under a cool upper level trough/short wave mainly across the MN Arrowhead. Friday, a system crosses Ontario and will send a cold front across Minnesota Friday night while increasing surface winds speeds and thus warm air and moisture advection ahead of the cold front.
Expect quiet weather through Friday night as high pressure ridging dominates the area.
The region will transition to stronger southeasterly flow aloft as the upper level ridge across the western Atlantic ocean builds west into Florida.
(Today) High pressure is promoting tranquil weather across the Tennessee Valley early this morning, with mostly clear skies and light winds prevailing. Most locations, however, will remain dry thanks to subsidence from the ridge and the lack of any real forcing mechanism in place. Highs today will once again peak in the low to mid 90s.
A mid level trough moving through the Mid-MS Valley is kicking off some convection from MO into IL. Some showers and thunderstorms are possible across northeast Arkansas and the Missouri Bootheel this evening along a pre-frontal trough. For the weekend, we look to warm up again into the low to mid 90s, thank in part to a deepening ridge. For the new work week, looks like the ridge begins to retrograde west.
The return of more intense heat is in the offing for the weekend as the center of the upper ridge moves over Kansas and mid-America.
215 AM MDT Thu Aug 4 2022 Upper flow over the western and central CONUS is weekly ridged, with high pressure over the Desert SW and low pressure over SW Canada. The warm front will slide across the CWA today, and temperatures will rise into the upper 90s and triple digits. As the upper low slides across Canada, its cold front will begin to slowly cross our area Friday and Friday night.
244 AM CDT Thu Aug 4 2022 A quiet night throughout the area, thanks to a beautiful post frontal airmass and high pressure moving in from the northwest. Temperatures are still in the low to mid 70s through much of the area.
226 AM CDT Thu Aug 4 2022 Summary: Quiet today and Friday and trending warmer.
17z observations are showing a trough of low pressure roughly from Great Bend to Meade is the focus of producing a few isolated showers and thunderstorms. kept in the slight POPs for areas south and east of Dodge City as the trough will slowly move to the south and east. Thursday will be a few degrees cooler given the northeast winds at the surface and 850 mb levels. This high will move firmly into the central plains during the day on Friday. Friday the winds will increase during the day with a trough of low pressure in Colorado.
(Today through Friday afternoon) An upper level high pressure system is in place over the Texas Panhandle. Deep easterly flow on the southern periphery of the high center will advect slightly cooler Gulf air into West Texas and southeastern New Mexico helping temperatures come back down to near normal by tomorrow. Today will still be quite hot with many locations exceeding 100 degrees, but temps should be a couple of degrees cooler than yesterday. Then again tomorrow we should be shaving a couple more degrees off highs as the cooler air becomes better entrenched. Diurnal afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms are expected today and tomorrow, mainly in the higher elevations of the Davis and Guadalupe Mountains with some activity stretching out into the adjacent plains in southeastern New Mexico.
and Friday High pressure will continue building in across the western Great Lakes today, which will bring cooler temperatures and much drier conditions to northeast Wisconsin. Highs are generally expected to be in the upper 70s to lower 80s, with cooler readings near Lake Michigan. The quiet weather will continue tonight as the high lifts northeast with overnight lows generally in the 50s with a few 60 degree readings across central and east-central Wisconsin. The high will continue shifting east on Friday, as return flow brings warmer temperatures and a bit more humid conditions to the region.
340 AM CDT Thu Aug 4 2022 Elevated convection behind the cold front over southern Kansas was slowly pushing off to the southeast with IR satellite trends showing steadily less development in the local area. Will keep some small chances PoPs early this morning but a slightly cooler and mainly dry day is anticipated.
Did not currently include fog in the TAF because of the low probability. JB Chattanooga Airport, TN 91 73 91 73 91 / 30 20 50 20 60 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 91 72 89 72 89 / 50 30 70 30 70 Oak Ridge, TN 90 72 89 71 89 / 50 20 70 30 70 Tri Cities Airport, TN 89 69 86 69 86 / 60 30 70 30 70.
This activity developed along a pre-frontal trough ahead of a cold front extending from the Great Lakes into the Central Plains. The mid-level trough axis extends south into the Lower MS Valley, resulting in a weakness between the subtropical ridge center located near the Four Corners and the Bermuda high. This weakness in the ridge will persist over the area into tomorrow, though heights will build slightly on Friday. The resultant cyclonic shear axis aloft should enhance large-scale forcing for ascent over the region over the next 36 hours, leading to higher rain chances and cooler temperatures across the Mid- South. The high PWAT, low shear air mass could yield localized damaging winds, but the main threat will be the aforementioned heavy rainfall potential.
248 AM MDT Thu Aug 4 2022 The H5 ridge continues to spin over the southwestern US, generally centered in far SW Colorado. A trough moving across the US/Canada border will also help bring the moisture northward. Have kept the low end chance pops for today, with isolated thunder. A considerable change in the pattern peaks starting Friday, as the monsoonal moisture sweeps across the region, and is influenced by the passing trough to the north.
1209 AM EDT Thu Aug 4 2022 Precipitation chances will remain high today as a trough to the west advances into the Ohio River Valley. Showers and storms near I-80 and in the vicinity of Zanesville will continue to decay over the next few hours as the remnants of pre-frontal squall line advances into a ridge. A decaying cold front attached to aforementioned low pressure will bring the risk for showers and storms Thursday afternoon and evening. Otherwise, VFR will prevail under high pressure early this morning. More showers and storms are likely Friday again with a pre-frontal trough.
334 AM EDT Thu Aug 4 2022 Discussion/Marine Cold front with lower dew points and north winds behind it is sinking south through the midway point of Lake Michigan and Central Michigan.
The upper level ridge remains prominent with high pressure aloft centered over the Central and Southern Plains.
(Today and tonight) High pressure will continue to dominate through Friday as it meanders over the Four Corners region. Temperatures will still be hot, but with the lower moisture today, we can expect heat index values to be just a bit lower than yesterday. 4 inches but as an inverted trough pushes through the area, we can expect some increase in these overnight tonight and through Friday when PWATs could reach 1.
Friday will be a cooler day behind a cold front moving through late tonight and early Friday.