Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
823 PM EST FRI MAR 11 2016 LATEST GOES WV IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUING TO SLOWLY SPIN OVER EASTERN TEXAS AS A SECONDARY LOW PUSHES INTO THE CALIFORNIA COAST. A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIFT THROUGH OUR AREA TOMORROW MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
559 PM CST FRI MAR 11 2016 Ridge of high pressure currently extending from the Great Lakes to the Central Plains will gradually lose its influence on the weather across central Illinois over the next 24 hours. As the ridge axis shifts northward, it will allow a cut-off upper low over southern Texas to drift northward as well. Water Vapor loop showing the upper low that was in Mexico for several days this past week was tracking slowly north through southeast Texas and will track north towards the Midwest and weaken with time over the next 24 to 36 hours. Meanwhile, upper level and surface ridging across the middle of the country will continue to keep the bulk of the moisture with the 500 mb low to the south of our area until very late tonight or more likely during the day Saturday.
825 PM CST FRI MAR 11 2016 Areas of light rain continue to move to the north-northwest across northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas this evening as an upper level low spins across south Texas.
IFR to LIFR cigs and MVFR to IFR vsbys will prevail at all sites through the taf period as low clouds and areas of rain rotate around an upper low pressure system currently located across Texas. Upper level southerly flow on the eastern side of the low continued to spread cloud cover across Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas. Scattered rain showers along with some patchy areas of drizzle will continue overnight tonight across the CWA as the low over Southern Texas continues to lift northward. Shower and thunderstorm chances increase during the day Saturday as the upper low reaches up near the Red River Valley Saturday afternoon/evening. transporting moisture and slightly warmer temperatures into the region. Instability near the upper low could allow for a few thunderstorms to become strong to marginally severe Saturday afternoon. mainly over Southeast Oklahoma near the upper low.
A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS ARIZONA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND BREEZY CONDITIONS.
526 PM CST FRI MAR 11 2016 FOR 00Z TAFS /ISSUED 352 PM CST FRI MAR 11 2016/ WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AS OF 21Z HAS A GOOD DEPICTION OF THE SETUP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE FLORIDA COAST AND A CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHERN TEXAS. THE CLOSED LOW MENTIONED ABOVE WILL FINALLY OPEN UP INTO A WAVE AS IT LIFTS NORTH INTO THE ARKLATEX REGION ON SATURDAY. THE FORCING WITH THE LOW AND THE LIMITED CAPE MAY ALLOW FOR SOME SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON BUT AT THIS TIME NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING SEVERE.
658 PM EST FRI MAR 11 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN DRY AND MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY.
537 PM CST FRI MAR 11 2016 THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH A QUIET AND DRY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PROPAGATE EAST INTO MINNESOTA. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WITH RIDGE OVER THE MIDWEST. THOUGH THE HIGH CLOUDS HAVE BEEN HOLDING TEMPERATURES BACK OVER OTHER AREAS. QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES OVER THE AREA AS RIDGE GRADUALLY WORKS EAST. RIDGE AXIS WORKS EASTERLY WITH A FEW WEAK WAVES MOVING THROUGH.
BUT THEN TWO MORE WEATHER SYSTEMS WILL SPREAD ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION IN FROM THE NORTHWEST OVER THE WEEKEND WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS EXPECTED OVER THE NORTH BAY. VERY BUSY DAY AT OUR OFFICE TODAY AS THE MAIN COLD FRONT WE HAVE BEEN TALKING ABOUT FOR DAYS WENT THROUGH OUR CWA.
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTH TX WILL SLOWLY OPEN OPEN UP AND MOVE NORTH OVERNIGHT.
COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THIS WEEKEND.
823 PM EST FRI MAR 11 2016 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THROUGH SATURDAY. A MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT WITH DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA LATE SATURDAY ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW CLOUDS.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SPIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH TEXAS. EXPECT MORE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AS THE LOW AND FRONT SLOWLY LIFT NNE ACROSS TEXAS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
Latest analysis at the surface shows very disorganized features, with the warm front still across northern MS/AL/GA. An upper low over the Arklatex will gradually lift northeastward during the short term, sending occasional pulses of energy northeastward. In addition, a surface warm front will approach the LMK CWA from the south tonight and cross the region Saturday morning. By Saturday night access to Gulf of Mexico moisture will increase and the main PV anomaly will be entering the lower Ohio Valley. Saturday night will be warmer with lows around 60.
906 PM EST FRI MAR 11 2016 UNSEASONABLY STRONG RIDGING WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER MILD AND DRY NIGHT.
541 PM EST FRI MAR 11 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN DRY AND RELATIVELY WARM WEATHER UNTIL RAIN CHANCES INCREASE WITH A WARM FRONT LATE SATURDAY. CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE LATE TNGT AND SAT FM THE S AS A WARM FRONT BEGINS TO SLOWLY ADVANCE N ACRS THE TN AND LWR OH VLY RGNS.
HOWEVER SOME ISOLATED THUNDER MAY COME INTO THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD CORE UPPER LOW BY 09Z. AS THE CLOSED LOW OPENS UP AND LIFTS UP OVER OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS SATURDAY. THIS RAIN WILL BEGIN ENDING FROM THE SOUTH SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE OPEN TROUGH MOVES OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. WITH HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
BLOCKED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL KEEP A SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS LONGWAVE TROF WILL PERSIST ALONG THE WEST COAST.
A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS ARIZONA TONIGHT WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS.
545 PM CST FRI MAR 11 2016 An upper level area of low pressure will continue to lift north across the southern Texas Gulf Coast this evening, with moisture streaming north into the area ahead of it. As moisture/low level RH increase tonight, we should see cloud bases begin to build down toward the surface, especially over the higher terrain of the Ozark Plateau. The upper low low will continue to lift northeast into Arkansas by late afternoon, with scattered showers and thunderstorms throughout the day tomorrow. The upper low will only make slow progress northeast Saturday night, resulting in the continued chance for scattered rain and thunderstorms through the nighttime hours.
421 PM CST FRI MAR 11 2016 RAINS HAVE TAPERED OFF ACROSS THE REGION AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER SOUTH TEXAS. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO EAST TEXAS AND GETS CAUGHT IN THE STREAM THEN LIFTS RAPIDLY OUT OF THE REGION TOWARDS SUNSET ON SATURDAY.
629 PM EST FRI MAR 11 2016 WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BEFORE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.
546 PM CST FRI MAR 11 2016 AT H5 CLOSED UPPER LOW PUSHING NORTH INTO CENTRAL TEXAS WITH DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND ASSOCIATED HEAVY PRECIPITATION OVER LOUISIANA MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA. WEAK WAVE MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL CANADA OTHERWISE CLOSED LOW OFF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST WITH COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION INTO THE SIERRAS. AND RIDGING OVER NORTHERN CONUS AHEAD OF IT. WITH NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND THE SANDHILLS LIKELY NOT DECOUPLING MUCH OVERNIGHT WITH MILD LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S. LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL FILL/WEAKEN AS IT MOVES NORTH TOWARD OUR REGION SATURDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO MOVE CLOSED LOW OVER TEXAS NORTH INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY WITH ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION SHIELD.
906 PM EST FRI MAR 11 2016 HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY.
ATLC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS IT DRIFTS SEAWARD ON SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD TONIGHT IN THE 60S AND CLIMB BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S SAT.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER LOW NEAR PLEASANTON AND DRIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST. MOST OF THE CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED WITH LOSS OF HEATING EXCEPT FOR ACTIVITY CLOSER TO THE UPPER LOW. UPPER LOW NEAR COTULLA WILL MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH EAST TEXAS ON SATURDAY. EXPECT MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH AFTER 04Z ALTHOUGH A FEW COULD LINGER OVER THE NORTHERN BRUSH COUNTRY/NORTHERN COASTAL BEND AS THE LOW LIFTS OUT TO THE NORTHEAST.
512 PM CST FRI MAR 11 2016 TEMPS ROSE INTO THE MID 70S JUST EAST OF THE BUFFALO RIDGE IN WEST CENTRAL MN THIS AFTN. A SLIGHT SHIFT IN THE WIND DIRECTION FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND MORNING LOWS COOLER THAN EXPECTED. AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE BUFFALO RIDGE AND ALONG THE MINNESOTA RIVER VALLEY WERE AREAS THAT HAD HIGHER MORNING LOWS AND THE ADDED AFFECT OF A DOWNSLOPE WIND COMPONENT. THE THEME FOR THE LONGER TERM WILL BE COOLER AND WETTER. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY COOLER FOR SUN. HELPING SHIFT THIS LOW PRES SYSTEM AND ANY LINGERING RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH IT WELL E OF THE REGION.
1044 PM EST FRI MAR 11 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT. THEN WILL SLIDE SOUTH OF THE REGION SATURDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
I EXPECT FINAL ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP BY LATE SATURDAY MORNING INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE PESKY UPPER LOW FINALLY MAKES ITS FINAL PUSH NORTHEAST OUT OF OUR AREA.
712 PM EST FRI MAR 11 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND PERSIST RIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
630 PM EST FRI MAR 11 2016 HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL DIRECT A WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH SATURDAY.
UPPER LOW NEAR COTULLA WILL MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH EAST TEXAS ON SATURDAY. EXPECT MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH AFTER 04Z ALTHOUGH A FEW COULD LINGER OVER THE NORTHERN BRUSH COUNTRY/NORTHERN COASTAL BEND AS THE LOW LIFTS OUT TO THE NORTHEAST. CIRCULATION OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTH TEXAS REMAINS QUITE VISIBLE ON RADAR AND VISIBLE SATELLITE. THERE IS STILL A NOTICEABLE DRY SLOT ON THE EASTERN/NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW.
/ISSUED 325 PM EST FRI MAR 11 2016/ HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS WILL BREAK DOWN THIS WEEKEND. AS LOW PRESSURE OVER TEXAS WEAKENS AND MOVES TO THE EAST NORTHEAST INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW TO MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA AND ALLOW FOR THE WIND FLOW TO SWING FROM A SOUTHEAST DIRECTION TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION.
01 UTC surface analysis shows a low pressure area across Texas with a frontal zone extending across Southern Louisiana and into the Central Gulf of Mexico. Temperatures will be warm, with overnight lows generally in the lower 60s.
946 PM EST FRI MAR 11 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND PERSIST RIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
INCREASING A BIT AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW OVER DEEP S TX FINALLY BEGINS TO LIFT OUT TO THE NE. UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER SOUTH TEXAS. /ISSUED 421 PM CST FRI MAR 11 2016/ RAINS HAVE TAPERED OFF ACROSS THE REGION AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER SOUTH TEXAS. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO EAST TEXAS AND GETS CAUGHT IN THE STREAM THEN LIFTS RAPIDLY OUT OF THE REGION TOWARDS SUNSET ON SATURDAY.
/00Z TAFS/ UPPER LOW CENTER AT 2340Z WAS ABOUT 50 NM SOUTH OF SAT AND MOVING NNE. ABOUT 20 PERCENT OF THE COVECTION IS DEEP ENOUGH TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS WITH MOST OF THE HIGHER STORM TOPS TO BE OVER AUSTIN AND CENTRAL TX. UPPER AIR ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWED A LOW OVER SOUTH TEXAS AND A RIDGE ACROSS NORTHWEST MEXICO AND THE SOUTHWESTERN US. THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND TOMORROW AND BE OUT OF TEXAS BY SATURDAY EVENING. SATURDAY NIGHT A SHALLOW UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS.
LOW TO MID 60S SHOULD BE THE LOWEST WE FALL BY DAYBREAK ON SATURDAY.
1044 PM EST FRI MAR 11 2016 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THROUGH SATURDAY. A MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT WITH DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA LATE SATURDAY ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW CLOUDS.
609 PM EST FRI MAR 11 2016 A COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTH OF THE COMMONWEALTH TODAY ALLOWING DRIER AIR TO MAKE A RETURN. WHILE IT WILL BE COOLER THAN RECENT DAYS TODAY AND SATURDAY.
711 PM EST FRI MAR 11 2016 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY SATURDAY. MOST OF THE LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER HAS SCOURED OUT AND/OR MOVED TO THE SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON. THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE TOWARD NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT. AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON SATURDAY. A MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE SOUTHEAST U. HAVE TAKEN A BLEND OF MODELS WHICH YIELDS HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 60S NORTH TO NEAR 70 SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER.
700 PM CST FRI MAR 11 2016 WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED AN UPPER TROUGH OVER NORTHERN MAN. TROUGH WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL QUICKLY BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST AS THE TROUGH PUSHES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA IN WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND THE FAR SOUTHERN VALLEY. H850 MOISTURE ADVECTION THEN BEGINS TO INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT AS AS AN UPPER LOW OVER THE SRN PLAINS LIFTS NORTH.
Nly winds behind the front should preclude much fog development Drier and warmer weather on tap this week as upper ridging reestablishes itself over California.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO NORTHERN NEVADA TODAY.
1232 AM EST MON FEB 22 2016 A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD EAST TOWARD THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL FOLLOW THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT EARLY THIS EVENING ALONG WITH A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AS THE COLDER AIR MOVES IN. EXPECT CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST ON MONDAY WITH MAINLY SUNNY SKIES AND HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOW TO MID TEENS NORTH AND MID TO UPPER 20S DOWNEAST. HIGH WL BUILD EAST INTO THE MARITIMES ON TUE WITH SRLY FLOW DRAWING IN WARMER AND MORE MOIST AIR. EXPECT PCPN TO END AS A PD OF SNOW SHOWERS FRI NIGHT AS UPR LVL TROF SCOOTS THRU WITH NEXT SYSTEM FOLLOWING CLOSELY ON ITS HEELS.
/issued 145 PM CST SUN FEB 21 2016/ A stationary front draped across the S PB/Lower Trans Pecos has been the general favored area for precip today as a well defined shrtwv trof moves overhead. Later in the day mid level lift will increase ahead the ballyhooed shrtwv trof in NW flow. LR's are steep with this shrtwv trof for an increasingly favorable environment for thunder. This will be followed by a fast moving cold front that will be shoved along by a 7-8mb/3hr isallobaric high and about a 4mb/90nm MSLP gradient, not to mention subsidence mixing. Parts of the Lower Trans Pecos will be tested with wind gust around 45 mph, which is not very common that far s.
Dynamic lift will increase over SW KS, especially by late afternoon, resulting in the lowering ceilings. 500 mb heights lower through Monday, as the developing trough approaches SW KS from the west.
HOWEVER THE LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL STICK AROUND.
330 AM CST MON FEB 22 2016 AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING EASTWARD TODAY WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE REGION. LIMITED MIXING WINDS AND CLOUD COVER COULD KEEP TEMPS A LITTLE COOLER.
TONIGHT A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING.
1124 PM CST SUN FEB 21 2016 COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE SOUTHWARD TONIGHT. TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT A RELATIVELY QUIET DAY HAS BEEN SEEN ACROSS THE NATURAL STATE WITH OVERCAST CONDITIONS AS A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT CONTINUES ITS SLOW MARCH ACROSS THE STATE. AHEAD OF THE FRONT HAVE SEEN TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S.
1249 AM EST MON FEB 22 2016 HIGH PRESSURE ALONG WITH A DRIER AND COOLER AIRMASS WILL BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT.
358 AM EST MON FEB 22 2016 A COLD FRONT WILL TRACK INTO NORTH CAROLINA TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND.
STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL SPREAD RAIN OVER THE UPPER OHIO REGION FOR MIDWEEK. INCLUDING AREAS E OF THE WRN PA/MD RIDGES. BUT PRIMARILY RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE FOR GARRETT COUNTY WHERE COLD ENTRENCHMENT IS MORE LIKELY. CURRENT WORDING IS FOR LIGHT RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN. BUT MORE OF A DRIZZLE SITUATION IS ENVISIONED GIVEN THE LOW INVERSION LVLS AS DEPICTED ON MDL SOUNDINGS.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE S ROCKIES INTO W TX TONIGHT.
THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE PUSHING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY AND SHOULD BE SOUTH OF OUR ENTIRE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
319 AM CST MON FEB 22 2016 The first upper trough has moved through the area and the next is set to arrive tonight. A cold front also moved through yesterday bringing cooler temperatures and with increasing moisture the stage is set for our first decent chance for rainfall in a few weeks. Conditions could be marginal in the Guadalupe Mountains which favor a more westerly wind direction for strong winds; therefore decided to continue the High Wind Watch for now and will let the day shift make the final decision as to whether or not to upgrade to a warning.
SOME WET AND WARMER WEATHER EARLY THIS WEEK TURNING DRY AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC WATERS TODAY. AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH AND STALLS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES.
A COLD FRONT WAS POISED JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA AND MOVING SOUTHWARD. ENHANCED LIFT ALONG THE LOW-LVL FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE ISOLD/SCTD RA/SHRA AS IT PROGRESSES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
COLD FRONT DRAPED ACROSS SOUTHERN ARKANSAS THIS EVENING.
917 PM PST SUN FEB 21 2016 THE MARINE LAYER AND WEAK ONSHORE FLOW COULD BRING SOME PATCHY LOW OTHERWISE IT WILL BE FAIR AND WARMER THIS WEEK AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST OFF THE PACIFIC.
105 AM EST MON FEB 22 2016 A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING TO THE EAST THROUGH VIRGINIA WILL BRUSH THE SOUTH WITH LIGHT RAIN EARLY THIS EVENING. FINAL SHOWER REMNANTS TRACKING OUT OF THE LOWER SUSQ RIVER VALLEY. CLEARING IS EXPECTED IN THE PRE DAWN HOURS AS THE HIGH GETS CLOSER. EXITING HIGH PRESSURE AREA OVER NEW ENGLAND TUE WILL KEEP SOME COLD AIR DAMMING IN PLACE AGAINST THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS AS SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW BEGINS TO INCREASE. WITH COOLER AIR ENTRENCHED.
A MINOR UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE QUICKLY OVER THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL QUICKLY BUILD INTO THE AREA STARTING MONDAY AFTERNOON.
STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL SPREAD RAIN OVER THE UPPER OHIO REGION FOR MIDWEEK. INCLUDING AREAS EAST OF THE WRN PA/MD RIDGES. BUT PRIMARILY RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE FOR GARRETT COUNTY WHERE COLD ENTRENCHMENT IS MORE LIKELY. CURRENT WORDING IS FOR LIGHT RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN. BUT MORE OF A DRIZZLE SITUATION IS ENVISIONED GIVEN THE LOW INVERSION LVLS AS DEPICTED ON MDL SOUNDINGS.
314 AM CST MON FEB 22 2016 06Z SFC DATA HAS HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES INTO THE PLAINS. QUIET AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN TODAY AND TONIGHT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVES THOUGH THE MIDWEST.
THIS IS OCCURRING S OF A COLD FRONT WHICH HAS REACHED S OF A TRL. THIS FRONT HAS NOT MADE MUCH SWD PROGRESS THIS EVENING GIVEN ITS SHALLOW NATURE AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SE OK/WRN AR. /ISSUED 544 PM CST SUN FEB 21 2016/ SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE FAR WEST TX BIG BEND TO CONTINUE SLOWLY MOVING E THROUGH MONDAY. THIS TROUGH WILL ADVECT TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE E PACIFIC THROUGH MONDAY.
SO THE FOCUS OF THIS UPDATE WAS ON REFINING SKY COVER THROUGH THE EVENING WITH AN EXPECTATION THAT MOST OF THE LOW CLOUDS MAY NOT REDEVELOP DESPITE SUNSET. COOLER NORTH AND EAST UNDER CLOUDS. A TYPICAL TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WILL SET UP ACROSS THE STATE AGAIN THIS WEEK WITH MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND COOLER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. BUT LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE HIGHWAY 200 CORRIDOR THROUGH 12 UTC WITH LOCAL MVFR OR BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS.
417 AM EST MON FEB 22 2016 CURRENTLY - AN ATLANTIC RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. FORECAST - OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS A RELATIVELY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL GIVE WAY TO AN AMPLIFYING TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER TEXAS AND OLD MEXICO THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
Given the weak winds and high RH levels below 850 mb across far northeast Kansas through east central areas, should expect the mostly cloudy skies to linger through mid morning as the high pressure axis shifts eastward. There is a window of sunny skies during the afternoon for temperatures to warm in the lower to middle 50s before mid level clouds increase from west to east with the next upper trough approaching.
230 AM EST MON FEB 22 2016 AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE BY TO OUR NORTH TODAY BRINGING TRANQUIL WEATHER TO THE REGION. LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM OVER TEXAS TONIGHT.
333 AM CST MON FEB 22 2016 WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS OUR EASTERN ZONES.
Additional updates this evening to further lower pops with the exit of the very weak cold front that passed through the area earlier this evening. 06Z TAFS: Fast moving cold front has pretty much exited the aviation area.
115 AM EST MON FEB 22 2016 AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT TONIGHT WILL SLOWLY PUSH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY.
DRY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK AHEAD AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS ALONG THE WEST COAST. SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER WILL DEVELOP LATE IN THE WEEK.
HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY IN THE LOW TO UPPER 50S. A TROUGH MOVES INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL COLORADO SUNDAY BUT DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE ARE WEST OF THE FA.
AFTER 22Z THE INFLUENCES OF THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH WILL START TO BE FELT AT THE TERMINALS AS LOWER CEILINGS.
1025 PM MST SUN FEB 21 2016 UPDATED AVIATION SECTION LEADING EDGE OF MOISTURE FROM UPPER-LEVEL TROF IN WESTERN MT/ID PANHANDLE HAS MOVED EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE A FEW HOURS EARLIER THAN FORECAST, BUT IT'S ALL MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WITH NO PRECIPITATION INDICATED ON RADAR AT THIS TIME. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND MAINLY IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES MIN TEMPS SHOULD BE IN THE HIGH TEENS TO LOWER 20S. AMPLIFICATION OF A 500MB TROUGH OVER THE E HALF OF THE NATION WILL BE THE MAIN STORY FOR MUCH OF THIS PERIOD. A SIGNIFICANT TROUGH WILL EXTEND ACROSS ALL BUT THE FAR W U.
This will help to keep temperatures closer to seasonal normals, generally in the low to mid 60s.
815 PM EDT SAT MAY 2 2015 VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS POISED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL ALSO REMAIN LARGELY UNCHANGED AS RETURN FLOW AROUND THIS HIGH CONTINUES. TRENDED LOWS A TOUCH WARMER GIVEN LIGHT GRADIENT AND WEAK WAA. SUSPECT TEMPS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOW 50S BEFORE LEVELING OFF OR RISING A BIT TOWARD MORNING. STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW ON SUNDAY WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL SUPPORT TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES.
2MB PRESSURE DIFFERENCE 1015-1017MB ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED SE OF GLS AND 1003MB LOW NEAR THE BIG BEND. /ISSUED 326 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015/ HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN U. TOMORROW WILL BE MUCH LIKE TODAY WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S.
AS A HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE CAROLINA. TEMPERATURES WILL SETTLE ONLY A FEW MORE DEGREES IN TO THE LOW TO MID 70S. AND TROUGHING ALOFT AND MOISTENING OF THE MID LEVELS IS EXPECTED TO BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH.
SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE IN PARTS OF THE JOHN DAY BASIN. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN MID TO UPPER 70S FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND BASINS WITH 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS.
A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION. A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION.
1016 PM EDT SAT MAY 2 2015 A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT AND OFF THE COAST SUNDAY.