Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
These gusts will likely continue through the afternoon and evening before slowly tapering off during the overnight hours as the upper trough and cold front push further to the east and southeast. Dry and chilly on Sat as we will still be under the influence of canadian high pressure, with high temps pretty much running in the 20s.
1149 AM MDT Thu Mar 19 2020 Upper low clearly spinning across NW Arizona early this morning with satellite imagery suggesting intense lift across the 4 Corners region into SW Colorado. Looks a more convective mode setting up with the hi-res models favoring some heavier showers lining up along the high plateaus.
A cold front is working its way through the southern terminals late this afternoon, with a few showers and storms. Cold Front and Possible Rain. Another cold front will move across West Central Texas later tonight and Friday. This front will bring cooler air, along with the potential for additional showers and thunderstorms. As the cold air begins to move into West Central Texas on Friday, afternoon highs will be much cooler than today, especially over the Big Country.
1017 PM EDT Thu Mar 19 2020 Atlantic high pressure will persist through Friday night.
1033 PM EDT Thu Mar 19 2020 Currently - A robust Atlantic pressure ridge swings southwestward then westward towards and across Florida into the Gulf of Mexico. Strong ridging is in place aloft. Short Term Update - Ridging will continue to dominate Keys weather through the overnight period. A strong ridge across Florida will maintain moderate to fresh mostly easterly breezes on Keys waters.
944 PM EDT Thu Mar 19 2020 Occasional showers and a few thunderstorms are expected tonight and Friday with crossing low pressure. Dry and cooler weather should return for the weekend under high pressure. In the wake of the cold front, a tight pressure gradient is expected to linger.
Issued by National Weather Service Elko NV 220 PM PDT Thu Mar 19 2020 Showers linger today as low pressure weakens and moves east of the area.
A cold front will move into the region around midnight local bringing with it some risk of MVFR clouds. As strong surface cyclogenesis continues with the departing mid-level low and weak ridging builds behind the Pacific front, pressure gradients remain tight. However, on the heels of the windy weather and departure of the Pacific front, a continental cold front will race through the CWA. Winds will shift to the north and increase in speed as much cooler air filters in behind the front which should push through after midnight and before sunrise tomorrow.
As this is being written, there are some isolated clear skies peaking through over the lower elevations of southeastern Utah and extreme southwestern Colorado. Looking at radar returns and water vapor, the center of the low remaining west of the Rockies is somewhere over northern portions of our forecast area. On the southwest side of the low over the aformentioned clear skies, convection is initiating. Few changes we made to the snowfall forecast with just a few more inches expected favoring the high elevations mainly in the central and northern mountains through the day on Friday. Daytime temperatures will remain roughly 10 degrees cooler than normal through the short term primarily thanks to increased cloud cover.
Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible along and just behind a cold front as it slowly tracks south. A cold front is working its way through the southern terminals late this afternoon, with a few showers and storms. /issued 248 PM CDT Thu Mar 19 2020/ (Tonight and Friday) Another cold front will move across West Central Texas later tonight and Friday. This front will bring cooler air, along with the potential for additional showers and thunderstorms. As the cold air begins to move into West Central Texas on Friday, afternoon highs will be much cooler than today, especially over the Big Country.
An upper level low will remain well offshore tonight.
Localized flooding impacts continue across the lower deserts due to runoff from the higher terrain. The closed low over the western Great Basin is forecast to effectively weaken in place as midlevel heights begin to rise across Arizona.
936 PM CDT Thu Mar 19 2020 Latest sfc obs show winds have subsided as the upper trough exits the region and decoupling commences w/loss of diurnal heating. /issued 224 PM CDT Thu Mar 19 2020/ Windy conditions are being observed across the northern half of the CWA today ahead of a cold front due to arrive overnight into Friday morning. Most of the rain has already pushed east so the frontal passage will be dry with high pressure behind the front bringing cooler temperatures, especially east of the Pecos River.
722 PM EDT Thu Mar 19 2020 Atlantic high pressure will persist through Friday night.
A cold front will backdoor into the region early tomorrow and cause winds to shift out of the NNE at all terminals. /issued 224 PM CDT Thu Mar 19 2020/ Windy conditions are being observed across the northern half of the CWA today ahead of a cold front due to arrive overnight into Friday morning. Most of the rain has already pushed east so the frontal passage will be dry with high pressure behind the front bringing cooler temperatures, especially east of the Pecos River.
453 PM MDT Thu Mar 19 2020 20z surface analysis had low over northwest KS with cold front northeast into MN and northwest into ID. Upper low spinning over northwest KS per water vapour. They will bring warmer air to the region.
Otherwise, as this impulse departs to the northeast a very shallow cold front will begin sagging into the area. along with rain chances as the cold front moves in from the N/NW. Models have kept close to the previous forecast with regard to timing of SHRA/TSRAs, with one round overnight and another tomorrow late morning/early afternoon (a pre-frontal trof and then the front itself?).
Strong cold front, currently located over central Kansas, will move into northeast Oklahoma after midnight.
This is where the highest thunderstorm chances and best severe weather potential will reside with a hail threat with any storms in the northern CWA, while all severe hazards are possible across the far southern CWA with strong low and deep layer shear supporting the potential for supercells and bowing line segments. The cold front will then move southward across the area overnight and be located just north of St. Gusty northwest winds, stratus, strong CAA, and spotty showers will be possible with the cold front itself. The cold front will move rather quickly from just north of St. Gusty northwest winds, stratus, strong CAA and spotty showers will be possible with the cold front itself.
20z surface analysis had low over northwest KS with cold front northeast into MN and northwest into ID. Upper low spinning over northwest KS per water vapour. They will bring warmer air to the region.
Below-freezing temperatures have already advected in to far-western and northwestern Minnesota, and temperatures will continue to fall through the evening and overnight as cold advection strengthens behind a departing cold front. Most of central and western Minnesota won't drop below freezing until precipitation has already ended, but we still expect a few hours of light snow or a rain/snow mix to develop this evening across southern and eastern Minnesota through west- central Wisconsin.
605 PM EDT Thu Mar 19 2020 Occasional showers and a few thunderstorms are expected tonight and Friday with crossing low pressure. Dry and cooler weather should return for the weekend under high pressure. In the wake of the cold front, a tight pressure gradient is expected to linger.
A brief ridging high pressure moves in Friday morning as an upper level low moves over the California Sierra Nevada bringing in some elevated light snow over the southern mountains. Temps will remain below normal on Friday with colder air trained in by the high pressure centered over the MT and Canada border.
Above normal lows in the low to mid 60s, with no significant forecast changes necessary.
812 PM EDT Thu Mar 19 2020 Record max daytime heat continues as weather pattern remains stagnant over the state while very late seabreeze finally bringing some cooler conditions at the coast. /issued 204 PM EDT Thu Mar 19 2020/ Broad upper ridging extends from the southwestern Gulf of Mexico northeastward over Florida and into the western Atlantic.
The low pressure system centered over western Nevada will slowly weakening through the first half of the weekend. Cool and unsettled conditions will be maintained by this low pressure through the first half of the weekend.
a high level cloud deck with breezy south to southwesterly winds are expected into the overnight hours ahead of a cold front forecast to push through the CWA late tonight. Behind the cold front. The cold front will move through late tonight and into tomorrow, leading to much colder temperatures to close the work week and open the weekend.
This is mainly due to the fact that we're expecting our mid-state activity to occur on or very near to the cold front and that's still a ways off to the west. We are still squarely in the warm front, so a passing shower/thunderstorm isn't out of the question through overnight period, but our widespread activity should hold off until the sun comes up tomorrow.
High pressure will build in through the weekend with moderating temperatures and some sunshine. Weak high pressure building in from the north is producing pleasant conditions across much of northwest California this afternoon, with sunny skies across most of the area. Visible satellite reveals a little bit of cumulus development over the higher terrain of Mendocino, Lake, and Trinity Counties, and some light shower activity will remain possible there into the early evening hours as an upper low continues to weaken along the CA/NV border.
Mostly cloudy skies will continue overnight ahead of an approaching cold front currently over the Southern Plains. A line of showers and isolated thunderstorms will approach from the west ahead of the cold front late tonight. Widespread showers and thunderstorms will overspread the region Friday ahead of a cold front pushing into the TN Valley. Daytime highs will reach the lower 70s. The cold front itself finally make its way into NW AL Friday afternoon and continue to push SE into the evening hours.
411 PM CDT Thu Mar 19 2020 A large trough remains parked over the western CONUS per recent UA analysis and WV imagery. In between, an active southwesterly flow continues to stream Pacific moisture acrs the southern plains into the lower MS Valley. At the sfc, low pres is centered over W KS, with a warm front extending eastward and a cold front bending southward acrs the OK/TX panhandles. Closer to home, high pres ridging west along the Gulf coast is maintaining an influx of warm moist Gulf air acrs the region, resulting in conditions more akin to May than March, with temperatures in the lower to middle 80s.
This afternoon, a warm front was located along the Ohio Valley and extended back to a low pressure center over the Central Plains. It will be quite mild with temps falling slowly through the lower 70s. This active wx will occur as the low pressure system from the plains moves northeast to the Great Lakes region and drags a cold front into Middle TN. Unfortunately, as the cold front becomes increasingly parallel to WSW upper level winds, the front will slow down. Behind this front, dry and cooler air will arrive as high pressure crosses the OH/TN valleys.
Latest NAM consistently drops the 1000-850 critical thickness into northern and western Oklahoma, as overnight temperatures should fall down to near to below freezing. Overnight cloudiness will finally begin clearing and sun by Friday afternoon, although temperatures will still be on the cooler side.
Additional development will then oc- cur later in the afternoon as the cold front slowly sags into the CWA. Otherwise, as this impulse departs to the northeast a very shallow cold front will begin sagging into the area.
325 AM CDT Fri Mar 20 2020 As of 3AM, a cold front has moved through the area with strong cold advection and gusty winds behind the front. As cold high pressure builds into the northern Plains, we'll see persistent northerly winds. With the north winds and cloud cover, we should only be able to climb into the mid 30s in our north to the low to mid 40s in our south.
Temperatures will be cooler, with ongoing cold advection keeping the diurnal response to a minimum - mainly in the 30-35 degree range, though it is late March so any sunshine will only help matters.
446 AM EDT Fri Mar 20 2020 Occasional showers and a few thunderstorms are expected today with crossing low pressure. Dry and cooler weather should return for the weekend under high pressure. 4 inches), and dewpoints in the low-60s may create impressive rainfall rates. With temperatures lingering in the low-70s low- level lapse rates will steepen and windy conditions (gusts near 30-35mph) will occur quickly after sunrise. By late morning, mid- level dry is anticipated to quickly advance into Western PA prior to the passage of a cold front. In the wake of the cold front, a tight pressure gradient is expected to linger. Gusts up to 35 mph may continue across the region (40 mph in the ridges) tonight and early tomorrow morning.
A little stronger winds will exist south of this stationary ridge axis across Brevard Co to the Treasure Coast.
238 AM CDT Fri Mar 20 2020 The cold front has pushed through the FA and is bringing cooler temps with it. The GFS however is roughly 10 degrees warmer as a result of clear skies. The forecast will reflect more of the GFS for highs but still remain slightly cooler as surface flow will be out of the east. Tonight will be quiet other than temperatures getting near to below freezing across the FA. Cool surface ridging will persist into the the first half of the weekend.
A low pressure system will bring showers and thunderstorms through tonight, with some lingering showers Friday.
/issued 936 PM CDT Thu Mar 19 2020/ Latest sfc obs show winds have subsided as the upper trough exits the region and decoupling commences w/loss of diurnal heating. /issued 224 PM CDT Thu Mar 19 2020/ Windy conditions are being observed across the northern half of the CWA today ahead of a cold front due to arrive overnight into Friday morning. Most of the rain has already pushed east so the frontal passage will be dry with high pressure behind the front bringing cooler temperatures, especially east of the Pecos River.
Otherwise, return flow around the high will bring a light southeast flow this afternoon and some increase in mid clouds.
At the surface, an area of low pressure was moving across the Great Lakes early this morning. A cold front will push across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys today, and into the Southeast tonight. Well above normal temperatures with near record highs are expected, with temperatures generally in the upper 80s to around 90 across the interior and the low to mid 80s near the coast. Overnight lows will be mild in the low to mid 60s.
This will turn the winds towards a southerly direction today which will bring somewhat warmer temperatures to the region.
This may slow a bit as it moves south with some influence from the upper level low pressure move through north central KS. A changeover to snow has started in some locations west of this line as a cold front begins to slide through from the northwest.
Sfc ridging ongoing across the region as a modified arctic airmass settles SE into the northern CONUS. Passing mid clouds can also be expected as a warm front lifts back slowly NE. Much warmer weather can be expected for the rest of the weekend as active northerly flow supports Pacific air in the region.
Dry weather is then expected from mid- morning through tonight as high pressure builds in from the northwest.
High clouds and south to southwesterly winds currently across the CWA are expected to give way to MVFR ceilings and gusty west to northwesterly winds as a cold front drops through the region late tonight/early Friday morning. Strong cold front, currently located over central Kansas, will move into northeast Oklahoma after midnight.
308 AM CDT Fri Mar 20 2020 Current obs across west TX indicate the expected cold front is positioned to the north between Lubbock and the northern tier of the Permian Basin. Front will continue to push south on the leading edge of high pressure nosing out of Canada. Cold front will slide through the Basin by early morning and the rest of the forecast area by early afternoon creating a breezy, drier, and cooler setup compared to the previous succession of days. Conditions will be quiet for much of the region over the course of Friday, but tightening pressure gradient behind the cold front across the Guadalupe's will generate a period of higher gap winds through Guadalupe Pass later this evening.
120 AM EDT Fri Mar 20 2020 Scattered showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms are expected early this morning, associated with an approaching cold front. Winds increase and it will turn colder through the daytime hours in the wake of this cold front.
A cold front will drop southeast across central Indiana this morning and early afternoon.
VCT may see thunderstorms during the late FRI morning hours from additional lift in the form of the approaching cold front. Winds generally out of the SE 10-15 KTs will turn out of the N-NE as the cold front sinks south into the region around and after 18Z FRI.
1218 AM EDT Fri Mar 20 2020 Occasional showers and a few thunderstorms are expected today with crossing low pressure. Dry and cooler weather should return for the weekend under high pressure. Fast moving broken showers are expected to continue for the next few hours as a deepening low pressure system crosses the Great Lakes. Heavy rain showers will return just before dawn as the low-level jet strengthens over southern Ohio and sfc dewpoints begin to increase. By late morning, mid-level dry is anticipated to quickly advance into Western PA prior to the passage of a cold front. In the wake of the cold front, a tight pressure gradient is expected to linger.
This is mainly due to the fact that we're expecting our mid-state activity to occur on or very near to the cold front and that's still a ways off to the west. We are still squarely in the warm front, so a passing shower/thunderstorm isn't out of the question through overnight period, but our widespread activity should hold off until the sun comes up tomorrow. CSV could experience a couple storms this afternoon as enough instability builds ahead of the cold front. As the cold front moves through the terminals, winds will shift from the WSW to the NW, but remain around 10 kts with gusts around 20 kts.
1243 AM EDT Fri Mar 20 2020 Atlantic high pressure will persist through Friday night.
Anticipate a fairly quick drop in temperatures this evening as ridge axis moves across the area.
Surface and upper level ridging will remain in place across the area today. A frontal boundary will approach from the west, but the ridging is expected to keep the chance of rain west of the forecast area today.
The low stratus clouds will clear out from north to south, with some possibly lingering through the mid to late morning hours in the westernmost Kansas counties. Much cooler air has been ushered into our region over the last 12 hours, and highs Today despite plenty of sun expected may be relegated to the upper 30s in the north to 40s south. Some possibility exists temperatures could be just a few degrees warmer , probably up to 40 degrees at Hays at best considering the warmest models.
Very dry and unseasonably cold air has filtered southward across Minnesota overnight with the bulk of the low clouds in the far eastern part of Minnesota, and west central Wisconsin. High pressure will build overnight and allow temperatures to fall into the single digits above zero in central Minnesota, to the teens and lower 20s elsewhere.
343 AM EDT Fri Mar 20 2020 Scattered showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms are expected early this morning, associated with an approaching cold front. Winds increase and it will turn colder through the daytime hours in the wake of this cold front.
A cold front will progress across the state from NW to SE with winds switching to N-NW in its wake.
424 AM EDT Fri Mar 20 2020 A broad upper ridge remains over the southeast states with a general southwest upper flow over our area. A cold front extending through the MS and OH Valleys this morning will drift south into the TN Valley by this evening. Showers and isolated thunderstorms will develop and spread into north and central GA today and tonight as a pre-frontal trough and short wave cross the area. An upper trough deepening to our north should help push the front into central GA late tonight where it should stall.
Low pressure currently centered over Nevada will keep cool and unsettled conditions over Utah and southwest Wyoming through the forecast area into the first half of the weekend.
Expect these breezy conditions to persist into the daylight hours this morning before falling off as the center of the high pushes east.
310 AM CDT Fri Mar 20 2020 1041 mb arctic high pressure centered over Saskatchewan will build through the Dakotas and north central Nebraska today. Elsewhere, highs in the lower 30s are in place. The arctic high pressure will move off east tonight with cold south winds developing.
122 AM EDT Fri Mar 20 2020 Atlantic high pressure will persist through Friday night.
Elsewhere, a cold front moving through OK/N TX will be moving through the region later today. Temperatures this morning are still ridiculously in the lower to mid 70s, some 20+ degrees above normal. The wind pattern aloft is primarily influenced by the large mid/upper level trof over the Western U.
1245 AM CDT Fri Mar 20 2020 Water vapor loop indicated an upper level trough from ND to Hudson Bay. The upper trough will move into eastern Canada by Sat afternoon. These gusts will likely continue through the afternoon and evening before slowly tapering off during the overnight hours as the upper trough and cold front push further to the east and southeast. Dry and chilly on Sat as we will still be under the influence of canadian high pressure, with high temps pretty much running in the 20s.
340 AM CDT Fri Mar 20 2020 Strong cold front currently pushing through NE OK with broad region of 5-8mb/3hr pressure rises noted upstream which will help maintain strong post frontal winds through the morning hours. Broad region of convection which is expanding through central TX will spread northeastward ahead of the advancing cold front with a slight chances of showers into far SE OK. The persistent wave train downstream of the E Pacific blocking ridge will remain in place through the upcoming week.
At the surface, a cold front will move through the area today, enhancing low-level convergence for convective development. Rain chances will end from north to south this evening as drier air moves into the area in the wake of the cold front.
148 AM EDT Fri Mar 20 2020 Occasional showers and a few thunderstorms are expected today with crossing low pressure. Dry and cooler weather should return for the weekend under high pressure. Fast moving broken showers are expected to continue for the next few hours as a deepening low pressure system crosses the Great Lakes. Heavy rain showers will return just before dawn as the low-level jet strengthens over southern Ohio and sfc dewpoints begin to increase. By late morning, mid-level dry is anticipated to quickly advance into Western PA prior to the passage of a cold front. In the wake of the cold front, a tight pressure gradient is expected to linger.
A few thunderstorms will also be possible with the highest potential at CHA and TYS. IFR cigs expected area-wide late in the period behind the cold front. JB Chattanooga Airport, TN 74 55 65 45 63 / 80 90 10 10 60 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 73 52 62 44 62 / 80 90 20 0 60 Oak Ridge, TN 71 50 61 42 62 / 80 80 20 0 60 Tri Cities Airport, TN 72 50 60 41 62 / 80 80 30 10 30.