Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Wednesday will be the last day under the influence of the long- duration upper low as it finally pulls away from the central plains. Instability will increase to a point with such cold temperatures aloft (-20C/-3C at 500/700mb respectively) that scattered showers will develop within the mean northwest flow pattern around the southwest periphery of the upper low. Once this moves through the region Wednesday Night, we begin the stretch of dry weather as upper level ridging overspreads the western plains.
UPPER LOW STILL SPINNING OVER THE ROCKIES WITH A DEEP MOIST SOUTH FEED AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM AND OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT HAS BEEN SUPPORTING STORMS STILL REMAINS BACK TO THE NORTHWEST.
715 AM EDT TUE APR 19 2016 THE OVERALL LARGE SCALE WEATHER PATTERN CURRENTLY FEATURES A SPRAWLING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT HAS SETTLED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN US. AND A LARGE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE THAT IS CURRENTLY SPINNING ITS WAY SLOWLY EASTWARD INTO THE WEST CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS TROUGH WILL BE WHAT FINALLY BRINGS RAIN BACK TO EASTERN KENTUCKY FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. TODAYS HIGHS ARE AGAIN EXPECTED TO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. ALONG WITH THE PASSAGE OF A VERY WEAK WARM FRONTAL TYPE OF A BOUNDARY. UNTIL THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE AREA LATER IN THE WEEK.
ANOTHER COMPLEX OF SHWRS/TSTMS SHOULD BE JUST WEST OF THE AREA LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES.
STILL SEEING VERY LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE EAST OF THE BUFFALO RIDGE EARLY THIS MORNING. AS SOUTHERN END OF UPPER LOW BEGINS TO SWING EAST THROUGH NEBRASKA. THE PESKY UPPER LOW WILL BE MOVING EAST ON A TRACK JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY. WITH THIS TRACK AND A FAIRLY STRONG LOBE ROTATING AROUND THE EAST SIDE OF THE LOW. THE CIRCULATION OF THE LOW EXTENDS FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO THREATEN A FEW SHOWERS OF LESSER COVERAGE FURTHER NORTHWEST IN THE FORECAST AREA OUT TO MML/HON/9V9. WHILE UP TO A HALF INCH OR SO OF RAIN COULD FALL IN NORTHWEST IOWA CLOSE TO THE UPPER LOW TRACK. HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S WITH THE SLIGHTLY WARMER READINGS TO THE NORTHWEST.
1124 AM EDT TUE APR 19 2016 AVIATION COOLER AIR HAS MOVED INTO SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN AN WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA INTO THE WEEKEND.
A BACK EDGE TO THE PRECIPITATION WAS SEEN OVER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A DRY SLOT WORKING ITS WAY THROUGH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. WARMER TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 50S ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES ITS EASTWARD TREK TONIGHT. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND CLEARING SKIES WILL MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. EXPECT AN EVEN WARMER DAY IN THE UPPER 60S.
THE DOMINATING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS CREEPS EASTWARD. WITH MOST AREAS SEEING HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY MAY BE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN WHAT WE SEE TODAY ALSO DUE TO INCREASING HIGH CLOUDINESS.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA AND THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT.
1131 AM EDT TUE APR 19 2016 LATE MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS HIGH PRESSURE (1024 MILLIBARS) BLANKETING THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. RIDGING HAS BUILT OVER OUR REGION OVERNIGHT AS TROUGHING HAS PROGRESSED INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. WHILE A CUTOFF DEEP TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE COLORADO ROCKIES. THIN CIRRUS IS SPILLING OVER THE RIDGE INTO OUR REGION. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WILL BOOST HIGHS INTO THE LOW/MID 80S INLAND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SETTLE OVER OUR REGION THROUGH TONIGHT.
THIS AREA OF RAIN WILL MOVE EVENING FARTHER N0RTH AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH. AND WARMER ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS TO THE SOUTH. AS OF NOW THE TREND IS FOR COOLER TEMPERATURES. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT HAS BEEN BRINGING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ACROSS VARIOUS PARTS OF THE COUNTRY WILL BECOME A BIT MORE CONCENTRATED AS IT STARTS TO GET ABSORBED INTO THE NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS CANADA.
AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE PLAINS AND MS VALLEY REGIONS.
CURRENTLY A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL IOWA THROUGH NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND INTO CENTRAL TEXAS.
WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS SITUATED OVER MIDDLE TENNESSEE TODAY, WITH BKN-OVC HIGH CEILINGS AND GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS.
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE THIS MORNING. MAINLY OVER THE LOWER KEYS AND ATLANTIC WATERS AS CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM SOUTHWEST.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE FOR SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW/COLD FRONT. AS THE UPPER RIDGE WEAKENS. OTHER THAN THIN CIRRUS SPILLING OVER THE UPPER RIDGE. SOME CLOUDS TONIGHT WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE ON TAP. CURRENT OPERATIONAL MODEL RUNS ARE FAR LESS IMPRESSIVE WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW/COLD FRONT APPROACHING FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BECOME A FILLING TROUGH AXIS AS IT TRACKS TO THE EAST NORTHEAST.
MID LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEAST U. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN U. SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION KEEPING THE LOW LEVEL EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW IN PLACE. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL DIMINISH ENOUGH EACH DAY TO ALLOW THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST DURING THE AFTERNOON.
1233 PM EDT TUE APR 19 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AS A DRY COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH.
621 AM CDT TUE APR 19 2016 FOR 12Z TAFS /ISSUED 207 AM CDT TUE APR 19 2016/ TEMPS AT 2 AM WERE MAINLY IN THE LOW/MID 50S WITH DEWPOINTS BETWEEN 45 AND 50 DEGREES. OTHERWISE THE OMEGA BLOCK IS FINALLY STARTING TO BREAK DOWN BUT MOST OF THE SERN US IS STILL UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER RIDGE. THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE SERN COASTLINE WHICH WILL ALLOW AN UPPER LOW/CDFNT TO APPROACH THE CWA.
631 AM CDT TUE APR 19 2016 Large closed low slowly drifting into the High Plains remains the main weather story for the next few days, as this system will continue to push several more rounds of rain into the region. For today, a weak cold front is becoming quasi-stationary near the southern and eastern borders of our forecast area, and this feature will be the primary focus for any rainfall through most of the afternoon. This will keep the higher precipitation chances focused across the Clinton/Sedalia areas and then up the US-63 corridor.
Deep ridging with a very dry air mass will persist into today. Highs should be in the low-mid 80s and generally a degree or two warmer than what was observed yesterday.
927 AM EDT TUE APR 19 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AS A DRY COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH.
RIDGING CONTINUES OVER THE REGION TODAY WITH DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE AS SEEN IN 12Z KTBW SOUNDING WHERE PWATS ARE LESS THAN A HALF INCH TRAPPED UNDER STRONG 3K FT INVERSION FOR MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE KEEPING EASTERLY WINDS OVER THE EASTERN GULF TODAY IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS AT TIMES THEN LATE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE RIGHT AT THE COAST.
A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER COLORADO TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER ARIZONA FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
CLOSED LOW OFF THE PACIFIC COAST WITH RIDGES OVER THE WESTERN AND EASTERN CONUS. EASTERN CONUS RIDGE IS BREAKING DOWN. CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION COULD HOLD TEMPERATURES BACK SOME BUT HAVE GONE WITH WARMER GUIDANCE WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW AND SOME BREAKS OVER NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON DURING PEAK HEATING WITH GENERALLY MID 50S SOUTHWEST TO AROUND 60 ONEILL VICINITY. COLD UPPER LOW ALOFT /H5 TEMP NEAR -22C/ WILL BE SLOWLY MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL INTO EASTERN WEDNESDAY.
UPPER LEVEL LEVEL RIDGE REMAINING OVER THE AREA TODAY WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF RECORD BREAKING HIGH TEMPERATURES. THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNING ONSHORE FOR A COOLER DAY. A STRONG BLOCKING UPPER HIGH CENTER CENTER CONTINUES THIS MORNING OVER ERN WA. THE UPPER LOW NEAR 130W OFF THE CNTRL/NRN CALIFORNIA COAST WILL LIFT N/NE ON WED TOWARD WRN WA. BRINGING MORE SUBSTANTIAL COOLING TO THE LOWLANDS.
902 AM PDT TUE APR 19 2016 An area of high pressure will continue warm temperatures today. A series of upper level disturbances will bring cooler temperatures increasing chances for precipitation by the end of the week. Lots of high clouds spreading up from the southwest early this morning ahead of a closed low off the central California coast. High pressure and diminishing offshore flow will continue to dominate the weather pattern resulting in above normal temps today. The pattern will begin to change later today and Wednesday as the offshore low lifts out across the northwest corner of the state, nudged by a deeper upstream trough.
744 AM EDT TUE APR 19 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST TODAY AS A DRY COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH.
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN TODAY ALLOWING SH/TS TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AND BEGIN TO WEAKEN DURING THE EVENING. AS THE RIDGE BACKS OFF EVEN MORE WED.
SUBJECTIVE 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES A SLOW-MOVING AND BROAD UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR THE WY/CO/UT BORDER AREA. ALL BENEATH A PREVAILING RIDGE ACROSS CANADA. WITH A LACK OF A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL JET TO HELP NUDGE THE LOW. THE LOW WAS CENTERED OVER SD. MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES WERE ON THE COOL SIDE BENEATH THE UPPER LOW. WITH 850MB TEMPS IN THE LOWER SINGLE DIGITS IN THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS BUT UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO DOUBLE DIGITS FROM ND/NORTHEASTERN SD INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND MS RIVER VALLEY. HAVE LOWERED TEMPS A TOUCH UNDER HIGH PRESSURE AND LIMITED MIXING. EVEN WITH UPPER LOW BEGINNING TO EJECT ACROSS THE PLAINS. CHANCES OF RAIN INCREASE QUICKLY ON WEDNESDAY AS UPPER LOW SLIDES ACROSS NEB/IA. JUST AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW AND IN PROXIMITY TO THE 850MB LOW.
655 AM CDT TUE APR 19 2016 PESKY UPPER LOW CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER NE COLORADO WILL MAKE SLOW PROGRESS ACROSS NEB OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WEAK MOISTURE TRANSPORT TO THE SOUTH OF THIS UPPER LOW MAY LEAD TO A SCATTERED SHOWER CHANCE ACROSS SE KS FOR THE MORNING HOURS. EXPECT A RATHER VIGOROUS IMPULSE TO ROUND THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW AND MOVE ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. AS UPPER LEVEL LOW MAKES SLOW PROGRESS ACROSS NEB. WITH WEAKLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT SOUTH OF THE LOW FOR MOST CENTRAL KS. BUT MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE SEASONAL TEMPS AND LOTS OF SUNSHINE RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AS UPPER RIDGING FOR THU THROUGH SAT.
CENTRAL ALABAMA WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. OUR RIDGE WILL BE FLATTENING OUT HOWEVER. BUT WITH THE UPPER LOW STILL QUITE A WAYS BACK TO THE WEST.
940 AM EDT TUE APR 19 2016 A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRING SOME CLOUDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON. WIND SHIFT/WEAK COLD FRONT IS MOVING TOWARD THE MASON DIXON LINE LATE THIS MORNING. MOSTLY CIRRUS AND MID DECK STRETCHED ACROSS THE REGION FROM NORTHEAST OHIO INTO THE SOUTHEAST RIDGES. H500 RIDGE AXIS HANGS TOUGH OVER THE CWA THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
737 AM EDT TUE APR 19 2016 COLD FRONT LOCATED FROM NORTHEAST PA TO CENTRAL OHIO WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION INT HE WAKE OF THE FRONT. THE HIGH WILL TRACK DRIFT SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS NY STATE ON WEDNESDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
1138 AM EDT TUE APR 19 2016 COLD FRONT LOCATED FROM NORTHEAST PA TO CENTRAL OHIO WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION INT HE WAKE OF THE FRONT. THE HIGH WILL TRACK DRIFT SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS NY STATE ON WEDNESDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER CO. HIGH PRESSURE IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. ROTATING AROUND THE SRN/ERN SIDE OF THE MAIN UPPER LOW. BIGGEST ISSUE LIES WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCE WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH SMALL HAIL POTENTIAL AS THE CLOSED LOW FINALLY CROSSES THE CWA AND HEADS EAST. THE LONG AWAITED ARRIVAL OF THE CLOSED LOW WITHIN THE STAGNANT PATTERN HAS ARRIVED FOR WEDNESDAY. WEDNESDAY COULD WIND UP BEING A WET DAY AS THE CLOSED LOW FINALLY CROSSES THE CWA AREA. THERE MAY BE SOME PRECIP BAND PIVOTING AS THE LOW MOVES. THEN NORTH ENDING UP WITH A BETTER CHANCE AT PRECIP WEDNESDAY AS THE CENTER OF THE LOW SEEMS TO BE MORE FOCUSED TOWARD OUR NORTHERN CWA AS THE LOW MOVES EAST.
936 AM EDT TUE APR 19 2016 COLD FRONT LOCATED FROM NORTHEAST PA TO CENTRAL OHIO WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION INT HE WAKE OF THE FRONT. THE HIGH WILL TRACK DRIFT SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS NY STATE ON WEDNESDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
122 AM EDT FRI AUG 26 2016 A cold front over indiana will move across the area tonight then high pressure will push east across the great lakes friday through saturday.
with short wave trough digging into Utah and Nevada. At the sfc 1024 mb ridge was centered over the Nebraska panhandle with easterly sfc flow ongoing across the CWA. Fairly good signal that instability will rise prior to passage of trough and expect decent coverage of precipitation given timing of the forcing. Upper trough moves across the region overnight Friday into Saturday morning. Strong to severe storms are possible with this trough as there will be good CAPE (1000 to 1600 J/Kg) and deep layer shear (40 to 50 kts) ahead of the trough. PoPs are highest during the early overnight hours which will associate with the highest potential for severe thunderstorms. Currently, there is a slight discontinuity between the strongest forcing and the highest instability so we will need to assess further model runs to see if this lines up better.
/issued 819 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2016/ High pressure surface and aloft to the north of the state combined with lower pressure over the southeastern Bahamas (Invest 99L) is supporting a 4mb gradient from KMFL north to KJAX this evening. High pressure north of the waters and lower pressure over the southeastern Bahamas will maintain moderate northeast to east winds in the 10 to 15 knot range near shore, and 15 to 20 knots offshore the remainder of tonight along with seas of 2 to 4 feet with choppy bay and inland waterways.
139 AM EDT Fri Aug 26 2016 Deep moisture along with a weak wave of low pressure aloft will produce variable clouds along with the chance of a passing shower, mainly south tonight into Friday morning.
617 AM EDT FRI AUG 26 2016 Dry and less humid conditions can be expected today as high pressure shifts into the Great Lakes. Highs this afternoon are forecast to reach the low to mid 80s, with lows Friday night into the 60s.
/issued 950 PM CDT THU AUG 25 2016/ Upper ridge centered over East Tennessee this evening. Temperatures in between the convective activity have reached the low and mid 90s for most folks.
However, still expecting thunderstorm chances to gradually increase from the south overnight, as the frontal zone begins to shift north across the region in response to the approaching upper trough across the southern Rockies. Overnight lows will likely be near or just above normal as there just does not seem to be any good push of cooler drier air moving into the area.
A cold front will track across Central Indiana tonight with a few thunderstorms possible. Scattered storms will redevelop by Friday night and Saturday as a warm front pushes into Central Indiana. Cold front is currently located over the northern part of the forecast area. Friday, most of the forecast area can expect dry conditions, but there is a slight chance that some showers and thunderstorms could sneak into the extreme southwestern counties as a warm front approaches from the Missouri Valley.
The flow aloft will weaken and shift north while some mid level ridging will prevail over the central part of the country. The ridging will not be strong enough to suppress convection during the heat of the day however, thus pops are warranted each day.
A general large-scale low pressure trough pattern remains in place over most of the northern Rockies and northern high plains regions. Today, the axis of this short wave trough will slide over northeast Montana and bring periods of scattered rain showers and a few thunderstorms to most of northeast Montana.
Upper level high pressure currently centered over Tennessee.
/Today/ High pressure moving into northwest Iowa has brought cooler temperatures and lower dew points to that region with each dropping into the low to mid 50s. A few patches of fog have begun to develop along the northern periphery of the cirrus including near Waterloo and Mason City and actually a few reports farther south under the high clouds. The initial push north should be slowed by dry air as the area of high pressure slides east across northern Iowa.
The upper ridge has migrated northeastward and was now centered along the southern Appalachians. The models continue in good agreement with the synoptic pattern moving the ridge slightly northeast the next 24 hours. Upper heights will fall slightly this period and central Alabama will remain on the southern periphery of this ridge. Closer to the surface, a ridge will be off to our east and this will provide an easterly flow and lower dew points across the southern half of the area. Will continue the trend of the highest pops north and these pops are actually slightly below normal for late August.
Upper ridge continues to bring the heat across the area.
656 AM EDT FRI AUG 26 2016 A cold front, will move east of the region today, allowing high pressure, to build in from the upper Midwest.
137 AM EDT FRI AUG 26 2016 A cold front will cause scattered showers and thunderstorms Tonight.
Also had some slight adjustments to overnight lows, again mainly in our typically cooler valley locations but probably not significant enough to alter the zones. Otherwise we are looking at a warm and humid evening under the upper level ridging and return flow at the surface. Upper ridging across the Tennessee Valley will edge northeast into the Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic Friday into the weekend, keeping a hot and humid airmass in place across eastern Kentucky. Deep layer subsidence, stemming from the above mentioned upper ridge moving overhead, and a lack of forcing for ascent should lead to a dry Friday.
A 595 DM ridge centered over the area with dry conditions continuing tonight. At the surface, high pressure extends across much of the east coast with a cold front stretching from the Great Lakes southwestward into the Southern Plains. For today, the ridge pushes a touch to the northeast as an upper level trough moves across the Central Plains. The ridge will win the battle with any threat for organized shower/storms pushing well to the north. The convection will be diurnally driven with the strong upper level high in place and any ongoing convection should come to an end quickly after sunset. Hot and humid conditions are expected again today with highs in the low to mid 90s across most locations with dewpoints in the upper 60s to mid 70s.
Temperatures are a couple of degrees warmer today, putting them within a couple degrees of normal.
200 AM EDT FRI AUG 26 2016 An upper level ridge will extend across the region through Saturday.
This looks a bit underdone given respectable llvl moisture and a source of lift as the main trough axis moves through the Central Rockies today. Convection should wind down pretty quickly after sunset as the best upper forcing shifts to the east, with only isold showers and a couple storms lingering over the higher terrain and far SE Plains this evening. Highs today will be a bit warmer than they were on Thu. in the lower 80s over portions of the Plains and 60s to lower 70s for the high valleys. Broad troughieness which has been over the western CONUS the last several days will gradually transition to a more weak westerly flow pattern.
404 AM CDT FRI AUG 26 2016 Region is in SW flow aloft with the area between high pressure along the E Coast and a broad low amplitude trough across the West. Cold front has stalled aligned roughly along I-70 as of early this mrng.
Cooler temperatures can be expected into the weekend as a weak upper level trough of low pressure moves in.
353 AM CDT FRI AUG 26 2016 (Today and Tonight) An area of showers continues across the Permian Basin and South Plains early this morning, along the western fringe of the upper level ridge. A few showers have also crept into portions of Central Texas as a weak upper level low meanders across the Texas coast. A little more cloud cover possible this afternoon as the better low level moisture starts to move in from the Gulf of Mexico, so temperatures will be near or a couple degree cooler than yesterday.
The development of low clouds, or fog, later tonight/Friday morning will hinge upon how much of this higher cloud cover dissipates.
Also to note the NHC is watching a disturbance south of New Orleans that is interesting under the plume, but only has a 10 percent chance for cyclone development.
416 AM EDT FRI AUG 26 2016 Dry and less humid conditions can be expected today as high pressure shifts into the Great Lakes. Highs this afternoon are forecast to reach the low to mid 80s, with lows Friday night into the 60s.
An unsettled weather pattern remains in place this afternoon as mid- level troughing dominates the flow aloft, along with several smaller scale waves rounding the base of the trough. On Saturday, GFS/NAM/ECM all show broad upper-level ridging along w/ considerable drying in the H7-H3 layer. Temperatures will be quite a bit warmer with H7 temperatures around +10 deg C. Even though we are not expecting Saturday to be a Red Flag Day, this will likely be the start of a much warmer/drier pattern heading into the extended.
The low level anticyclone will affectively suppress the moisture and instability reservoir south across the Ohio Valley. This will precede a mid level trough traversing the northern plains. Southeast Michigan will see a little more influence from the mid level ridge parked over the Mid Atlantic, which will sustain low level dry air through much of the day and result in rather shallow mid level lapse rates. Moisture depth is forecast to increase Sat night as the low and mid level flow veers more westerly. Weak mid level frontal forcing and height falls associated with the aforementioned mid level trough as it rotates across the nrn Great Lakes, combined with the ample moisture and weak instability, will support better chances for showers/tstms Sat night.
300 AM PDT FRI AUG 26 2016 Strong high pressure aloft will provide one more day of record or near record warm temperatures today. Then a significant change in the weather is expected as much cooler marine air surges into Western Washington for the weekend. The high amplitude upper ridge was off the coast near 150W early this morning with northerly flow over Washington. At the surface, the thermally driven trough of low pressure was hugging the coastline with light low level offshore flow across Western Washington. High temperatures over the weekend should be 15 to 20 degrees cooler than today. Adjusted the forecast to keep Saturday into Saturday night dry despite the abrupt presence of cooler marine air.
331 AM MDT FRI AUG 26 2016 An upper level trough over northeast Utah will move east across Colorado this morning. Lift ahead of the trough is producing widespread clouds along with scattered to isolated showers. Given the cooler temperatures expect light snow has fallen above 11000-12000 feet. This should allow temperatures to climb into the lower 70s. Expect scattered to isolated storms this afternoon, with the best chance being over the higher terrain. The mdls show a weak trough over the desert southwest Saturday aftn.
555 AM EDT FRI AUG 26 2016 High pressure will push east across the great lakes today through saturday.
The subtropical ridge to our east weakens late in the weekend while a couple of upper lows cut off over northern Mexico and S TX. Extended range models indicate an upper ridge building in over the S.