Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Stronger southerly winds are expected to help mix out some of these lower clouds along the I-30 corridor, but temperatures are running several degrees cooler due to the thicker morning clouds.
955 AM EDT Sun Apr 9 2017 A weak trough has been analyzed near the coast of NE FL. The trough should gradually dissipate by the late aftn hour as prevailing easterly flow dissipates any convergence and cloud cover should eventually fade tonight. Have made a few tweaks for the winds for initial conditions due to land breeze/troughing near the coast. Once the trough breaks down later today flow will be east to northeast at about 10-15 kt.
Monday a low pressure system will approach and bring chances for rain and thunderstorms to the area through Monday night.
Although main upper low is well to the north, there is a mid/upper level speed max forecast to move into north-central Oklahoma by mid/late afternoon. A few additional strong storms could also be possible later in the evening along cold front across far northeast Oklahoma.
High pressure sitting over the region will keep dry conditions through the period. The day will warm up nicely under sunny skies with highs topping out in the low 80s. High pressure moving over the Atlantic but ridging back to the east Gulf will shift north and northeast winds to northeast then east through mid-week.
Current temps range from the lower 70s most areas to the upper 60s Plateau. South winds will be increasing, as a low pressure system starts to push out of the Plains toward the Mississippi Valley and tightens the pressure gradient over our neck of the woods.
658 AM CDT Sun Apr 9 2017 Despite increasing cloud cover, high temperatures today should be slightly warmer than the previous day owing to a much warmer start early this morning and strong and gusty southerly/southwesterly surface/low level winds. A cold front will also be approaching this area tonight as an upper level low moves eastward into the northern Plains. Lows tonight will be unseasonably warm due to the cold cover and continued southerly surface winds ahead of the approaching cold front. A surface cold front will track thru the CWA providing good moisture convergence and have some measure of upper level support.
/Issued 324 AM EDT Sun Apr 9 2017/ Current satellite loop shows mostly clear skies over the region this morning as high pressure continues to dominate the weather pattern. This ridge is centered over GA and the Carolinas right now but it is expected to drift slowly east to just off the Mid Atlantic coast through Monday afternoon. This ridge becomes elongated but continues to keep North and Central GA dry through the short term.
Negatively tilted mid tropospheric trough over the Rockies will be moving eastward today. Thermal ridge at 850 mb and 700 mb stretched from TX up into MN. A low pressure center and its associated fronts will be moving east through the area today. The latest model guidance (including the high resolution convection allowing models) offers varying solutions on if, when or where storms will develop (due to a cap). So confidence on details of storm development and evolution is on the low side.
Surface analysis places a ridge of high pressure over the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast United States. Southerly winds on the backside of high pressure is bringing warm air and slightly moister air up from the Gulf of Mexico. High pressure is situated over the southeast U. S while low pressure develops over the plains. As a result winds are already starting to increase across the Delta where most sites are blowing at 10 kts with gusts to 18 kts at Walnut Ridge.
The cold front is expected to sag into the forecast area this afternoon, though just how far south is still in question. The front will sag toward central WI tonight, but stall out as a wave of low pressure ripples along the boundary overnight into Monday morning. The front should surge south on Monday afternoon as the low pressure system shifts east. There will be a large temperature gradient across the region, with highs ranging from the middle to upper 30s over northern Vilas county to the lower to middle 60s in east central WI.
Currently, an upper level trough was over the US Rockies with southwesterly flow across the Dakotas. At the surface, a low pressure system was centered over central Nebraska/Kansas. A surface Canadian high pressure system was centered over north central Canada with its southern extent in the form of a cold front draped west- east across northeastern Montana/North Dakota/southern Manitoba. The upper level low over the Rockies is forecast to become a closed low as it moves east across Wyoming today and SD/NE tonight. Lows tonight should be in the 20s with the influence of the Canadian high pressure system dominating over ND.
939 AM EDT Sun Apr 9 2017 A narrow ridge of high pressure will crest over the region early today and will shift offshore south of New England this afternoon. A warm front will pass by to the north tonight and will stall over southern Canada on Monday.
Temperatures across western Nebraska remain mild in the low to mid 50s, beneath partly to mostly cloudy skies. A broad area of low pressure extended from southwest Nebraska and western Kansas into eastern Colorado. A negatively tilted upper trough will move into western Nebraska. Meanwhile, the closed lows is forecast to rotate counter clockwise overnight, and bring a continued chance for showers to north central Nebraska. Snowfall accumulations from a half inch to inch are possible across northern Sheridan county with lows falling to just below freezing. Cooler air behind the departing low and plenty of clouds will keep temperatures on the cool side on Monday.
1053 AM EDT Sun Apr 9 2017 High pressure will remain across the Southeast today, then shift over the Atlantic on Monday.
1009 AM MDT Sun Apr 9 2017 Have decided to upgrade the High Wind Watch to a warning in zones 35 and 38, and moved the timing up 3 hrs fm noon to midnight. Some wind adjustments to the grids in the warning area as well to better match the highlight. As for highs this aftn readings will be cooler across nern Co with readings in the mid 50s to around 60. At this point expect gusts fm 40 to 50 mph over much of the plains with the highest gusts closer to the WY-NE border.
Cooler temperatures can be expected today in the wake of a weak cold front and low pressure system, with high temperatures in the upper 70s and lower 80s across the lower deserts.
This will in turn help push a cold front through the area this evening into tonight. As for temperatures, highs today look to range from the lower 70s along the KS/CO border to low 80s across central and south central Kansas.
953 AM EDT Sun Apr 9 2017 High pressure will move offshore later today.
The southerly winds are associated with a low pressure system that will move from the plains states today to the straits of Mackinac on Monday. Moisture will be pulled north ahead of the low with chances for showers and thunderstorms beginning tonight and continuing into Monday evening. Showers and a few storms will be possible tonight however across Central Lower Michigan as the low moves into Wisconsin.
1012 AM EDT Sun Apr 9 2017 High pressure will be situated east of the region allowing for southwesterly flow and warm conditions today and Monday.
1210 PM EDT Sun Apr 9 2017 High pressure will works its way off the Mid Atlantic coast through Monday night.
This low is expected to move north and east through the day today as the main upper level trough pushes east across the central plains. Low temperatures tonight will be cooler in the mid 40s to low 50s.
More showers on Monday with an upper level trough moving through.
The 7 am regional surface analysis showed a broad area of high pressure across the Southeast. Vapor imagery and upper air data showed that a ridge was approaching our region from the west, and that the troposphere remained exceptionally dry.
A weak ridging will shift inland today and this will keep most of our forecast area dry.
Expect temperatures to climb into the lower 70s this afternoon as wind gusts peak out in the 25 to 30 mph range for several hours during best mixing this afternoon. Decent pressure gradient will remain in place tonight as high pressure remains anchored off the eastern seaboard and low pressure tracks from the central plains to upper midwest. Between the steady south to southwest wind and thickening mid to upper level cloud deck in advance of this low, temperatures will remain very mild overnight with lows only falling into the middle 50s. This second low pressure center will shift into the area by Monday evening, bringing an increasing chance of showers and thunderstorms after 22z or so.
High pressure that brought very nice wx yesterday will remain in control today, and Monday as well. The center of the high pressure will move off the east coast, allowing stronger south winds to develop over Tn.
702 AM EDT Sun Apr 9 2017 A ridge of high pressure over the area will move to the Appalachian Mountains today.
low pressure systems will move inland to the north not having much impact on Southern California other than to modulate the strength of the onshore flow. Warmer through Monday.
715 AM EDT Sun Apr 9 2017 High pressure will remain across the Southeast today, then shift over the Atlantic on Monday.
/ISSUED 317 AM CDT Sun Apr 9 2017/ Southeast Texas is off to a warmer start this morning (compared to this time over the last couple of days) with 3 AM temperatures ranging generally from the lower 60s inland to the lower 70s at the coast.
Quiet weather pattern will hold today and Monday as flow aloft trends dry westerly between a high pressure ridge advancing east of the region and next trof entering the plains. Any significant moisture will remain confined to the lower levels below 5k ft within a southerly flow.
1247 PM EDT Sun Apr 9 2017 Dry and warmer weather will continue today but shower and thunderstorm chances return on Monday. High temperatures today will be in the low to mid 70s but it will be windy with southwest winds of 25 to 35 mph.
Upper level trough axis in S-Central Idaho will push east as an upper ridge moves in from the west. Residual moisture from the departing trough will still lead to isolated showers across the north (Baker City to McCall areas) today. The ridge will weaken and shift east as another upper trough moves into the PacNW this evening. The trough will take a northern track with showers expected mainly north of a Burns- Boise-Fairfield line from late tonight through Monday.
949 AM EDT Sun Apr 9 2017 High pressure will extend over central North Carolina today, then drift offshore Monday.
Expect another nice day today as ridging aloft keeps conditions warm and dry. Quiet weather pattern will hold today and Monday as flow aloft trends dry westerly between a high pressure ridge advancing east of the region and next trof entering the plains. Any significant moisture will remain confined to the lower levels below 5k ft within a southerly flow.
1249 PM EDT Sun Apr 9 2017 A high pressure system provide dry weather today and Monday.
High pressure is situated over the southeast U. S while low pressure develops over the plains. As a result winds are already starting to increase across the Delta where most sites are blowing at 10 kts with gusts to 18 kts at Walnut Ridge.
The lower troposphere will likely remain too dry for fog or low cigs overnight. The 7 am regional surface analysis showed a broad area of high pressure across the Southeast. Vapor imagery and upper air data showed that a ridge was approaching our region from the west, and that the troposphere remained exceptionally dry.
1029 AM EDT Sun Apr 9 2017 Warm and dry conditions are expected through the start of the week under high pressure.
Model soundings this afternoon indicate that some locations could vary between the MVFR and VFR broken/overcast ceilings into the evening hours before falling back to MVFR overnight ahead of a cold front forecast to move into Northeast Oklahoma toward the end of the TAF period. with dewpoints gradually rising into the lower 60s across the forecast area. The more likely scenario favors convective development across eastern/southeastern KS this evening along the advancing cold front.
1116 AM EDT Sun Apr 9 2017 High pressure works its way off the Mid-Atlantic coast through Monday night.
Blackberry winter has arrived with a chilly morning across the Mid State with temps down in the middle 30's along the plateau and in the lower to middle 40's west of plateau. Northwesterly flow aloft becomes more zonal by tonight with initial weak disturbance rolling out of the southern plains on Monday and into the lower Mississippi River Valley.
634 AM CDT SUN MAY 15 2016 Main features at 500mb are closed upper low over southern Hudson Bay with trough extending into southeast conus and ridge over the intermountain west extending into Alaska. There is a closed low undercutting the western ridge moving through the Pacific Northwest. The lowest condensation pressure deficits and best lift arrive during the daytime hours Monday. where the forecast will retain the highest pops. The parent trough will sag south through the day on Monday.
1117 AM CDT SUN MAY 15 2016 All recent model runs coming into agreement with bringing deep primarily our TX zones which are already seeing pop up convection with somewhat warmer temps being reported.
Scattered rain showers will also accompany the lower cigs and isolated rumbles of thunder will be possible as well. A short wave will move across the area today underneath weak ridging aloft.
1139 AM EDT SUN MAY 15 2016 A dry and cooler air mass will settle over the region today as high pressure builds over the area. The ridge will move off the coast Monday and moisture will slowly return to the area.
732 AM EDT SUN MAY 15 2016 Water vapor imagery and RAP analysis show a deep trof extending from Hudson Bay into the Great Lakes region. Gaps in the cloud cover early this morning should fill in with cu/stratocu for a time before 850mb thermal trof shifts farther e. A building upper ridge will bring 850mb temps up to around 9C by the end of the forecast period, so a warming trend to highs from the mid 60s to low 70s by late week is expected. As the low levels moisten, cigs should fall to MVFR overnight and perhaps to IFR late. A weakening low pres and trof will drop over Lake Superior tonight, and then push s on Mon.
1041 AM CDT SUN MAY 15 2016 High pressure continues to build into the region. with sunshine and cooler temps in place to wrap up the weekend. Northwesterly winds will continue to lighten through the afternoon as the ridge axis drifts eastward. High pressure will dominate the weather across central Illinois today, providing plenty of sunshine and considerably lighter winds than yesterday. As high pressure shifts east of the region, a warm front will take shape and begin to approach from the southwest late tonight into Monday. Trailing ridge axis and associated dry low-level airmass will likely keep the precip at bay until Monday afternoon.
645 AM CDT SUN MAY 15 2016 High pressure will dominate the weather across central Illinois today, providing plenty of sunshine and considerably lighter winds than yesterday. As high pressure shifts east of the region, a warm front will take shape and begin to approach from the southwest late tonight into Monday. Trailing ridge axis and associated dry low-level airmass will likely keep the precip at bay until Monday afternoon.
Thunderstorms that occurred yesterday afternoon have ended as the low levels stabilize. The upper trough will slowly edge east of us today, but we'll continue to see a fair amount of upslope showers as moist, onshore flow persists in the low levels. An upper ridge will gradually move over us through the middle part of the week, and a thermal trough develops along the coast.
The low pressure system over the pacific northwest states is pushing plentiful pacific moisture into the Rocky Mountains. As that low pushes eastward against the ridge of high pressure descending from the Canadian Rockies, a stalled and persistent precipitation boundary will set up from today through tomorrow. BMickelson Previous short term discussion: High pressure will help to maintain dry weather conditions across most of northeast Montana throughout the short term period.
Have adjusted POPs/WX grids to shift the highest POPS south from previous forecast, based on current radar trends and to follow the baroclinic zone that is near I-40 across the forecast area. Still some differences in the models with regards as to how far north the surface warm front will pull back north on Monday. However, the latest NAM pulls the warm front quite a bit farther north than prev runs. Other storms would develop along and north of the warm front across Kansas into Colorado.
An upper level low over eastern Oregon will continue to shift east today. Rain from the low will reach parts of northwest Oregon and southwest Washington today through Monday morning. Showers will taper off Monday as an upper ridge builds over the area.
634 AM CDT SUN MAY 15 2016 12Z TAF CYCLE An upper trough will approach the Panhandles today allowing scattered showers and possibly isolated thunderstorms mainly at the Amarillo and Guymon TAF sites through about 18Z to 21Z today. /Issued 555 AM CDT SUN MAY 15 2016/ A broad upper-level longwave trough pattern across the country will bring periods of unsettled weather to much of the CONUS this week.
A low pressure system over the pacific northwest will remain nearly stationary keeping the clouds and showers in the forecast for today.
Blackberry winter has arrived with a chilly morning across the Mid State with temps down in the middle 30's along the plateau and in the lower to middle 40's west of plateau. Northwesterly flow aloft becomes more zonal by tonight with initial weak disturance rolling out of the southern plains on Monday and into the lower Mississippi River Valley.
909 AM CDT SUN MAY 15 2016 Main features at 500mb are closed upper low over southern Hudson Bay with trough extending into southeast conus and ridge over the intermountain west extending into Alaska. There is a closed low undercutting the western ridge moving through the Pacific Northwest. The lowest condensation pressure deficits and best lift arrive during the daytime hours Monday. where the forecast will retain the highest pops. The parent trough will sag south through the day on Monday.
614 AM CDT SUN MAY 15 2016 Cooler than normal temperatures to continue through most of the week. These showers were embedded in 700mb theta-e ridge, under the right entrance region of a 250mb jet core.
1100 AM EDT SUN MAY 15 2016 High pressure over the central Plains will move east across the Ohio Valley today and tonight providing fair weather in our area. Temps will remain much below normal today as broad thermal trof over the Great Lakes moves slowly east. GFS suggests wk forcing and limited moisture will accompany the front, while ecmwf indicating more interaction with srn stream shrtwv ejecting eastward from swrn CONUS trof.
Currently, air temperatures in most Keys island communities are rising through the lower 80s, with dewpoint temperatures in the lower 70s. A surface analysis indicates a weak pressure pattern across the Florida Keys, as the area is well north of the tropical trade wind belt, southwest of a migrating midlatitude trough, southeast of a continental anticyclone, and west of a subtropical anticyclone.
Chilly high pressure will build in through Monday.
1015 AM EDT SUN MAY 15 2016 A cold front will move through this morning followed by high pressure passing by to the north through Monday.
630 AM CDT SUN MAY 15 2016 Area will remain in split flow with northwesterly upper level flow to our north and a weak upper level ridge across Colorado. This ridge will continue to weaken as it moves east across the central U. At the surface, area of cool high pressure centered over the nations's mid section will continue to shift southeast through the day. Moisture will be slow to return to the area behind the departing cold high pressure system.
Expect VFR conditions across central/southwest MT today, but ceilings will be steadily lowering from south to north through the day as bands of moisture move from ID into MT, ahead of slow-moving low pressure system in central Oregon. Precip and lower ceilings won't make it too much further north than KGTF, as drier air and high pressure ridging remain in place across north central and northeast MT.
1122 AM EDT SUN MAY 15 2016 An unseasonably cold airmass will remain over the region today, while an upper level trough sits over the Great Lakes.
At 12Z upper low was centered in Baker County, OR, with showers rotating around it.
414 AM PDT SUN MAY 15 2016 A few showers or thunderstorms possible today in the higher terrain of Shasta County and along the western Sierra slopes. Upper low/trough will continue to track eastward today is just east of our CWA. Lingering instability from this low could spark a few showers/thunderstorms this afternoon into evening. On Monday, our region will be on the back side of the trough and we should have dry weather with breezy northerly winds, along with warming temperatures.
614 AM CDT SUN MAY 15 2016 Temperatures remain quite variable early this morning, oscillating between the lower 40s and mid 30s, depending on localized mixing and lingering mid-lvl clouds. Despite temperatures in the lower to middle 60s, considerable sunshine and light winds should make Sunday rather enjoyable. 925:850 MB ridge will sprawl out along the NE/SD border, trapping moisture just south of the CWA. Overnight lows in the lower 40s. expect the ridging ahead of the approaching northern wave will keep rain south of the area.
Weak high pressure will lie across the region today. Large upper troughing will continue to encompass the northeast U. This should allow for min temps to be slightly warmer, mid-upper 60s, except around 70 along the Space/Treasure Coast. Weak high pressure over the area today with associated light pressure gradient.
This system will bring a return to cooler temperatures and showery conditions with a few thunderstorms to much of Utah and southwest Wyoming. Morning water vapor and H5 analysis depict an upper low over the PacNW with center of circulation over NE Oregon. This wave is currently driving the attendant cold front south along the Wasatch Front with current location over southern Salt Lake County southwest through Dugway. The upper low will continue to take a southeasterly trajectory from its current locale, eventually orienting over southern Idaho/northern Utah overnight tonight through tomorrow.
West to northwest winds of 10 to 15 knots are expected to back to the southwest by middle to late afternoon, as high pressure moves further to the southeast of the area. High The base of the upper low centered north of the great lakes will lift northeast.
/ISSUED / Another widespread round of showers and thunderstorms expected this afternoon as daytime heating and a mid level disturbance work as triggers, and a coastal trough provides a focusing mechanism. 47 A trough of low pressure extends along the upper Texas coast this morning, providing a focal point for showers and thunderstorms that are developing along the coastal bend area to extend up along the Southeast Texas coast during the day today. Northeast and East winds at 5 to 10 knots today will gradually veer to the Southeast by late afternoon as the trough weakens and moves inland. Onshore winds will increase tonight as the surface pressure gradient tightens between the high pressure system over the central Gulf of Mexico and the deepening low pressure system in the lee of the Rockies.
Northwest winds today will become easterly and then southeasterly by Monday afternoon as high pressure to the north moves over the Atlantic.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 69 48 73 57 / 0 10 30 50 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 66 44 69 53 / 0 10 30 60 Oak Ridge, TN 66 43 69 53 / 0 10 30 60 Tri Cities Airport, TN 62 39 66 50 / 0 0 20 70.
High pressure centered over the Missouri Valley this morning will slide east across the Quad State Region today and be centered over West Virginia by daybreak Monday.