Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Water vapor imagery this afternoon showing a well defined upper ridge situated over the western CONUS extending into British Columbia with with a vort max dropping down the front side preparing to to push into the lower 48. hefty Pacific riding up and over the ridge was spilling into the northern High Plains. low pressure was centered over northern MN with attendant arctic front straddling the U. Aforementioned vort max dropping into the lower 48 this evening will induce synoptic scale ascent with light snow developing along axis of mid-layer ageostrophic forcing.
Currently, the center of the arctic high was over central Saskatchewan, with the arctic cold front well south of ND approaching the southern plains states. Temperatures across ND ranged from -15F to -5F, and -30F to -20F in the high center in Saskatchewan.
Warmer weather is expected toward the end of the week as southwest winds develop when high pressure moves across the Ohio Valley and highs in the 40s are expected by the weekend along with some rain. The occluded front that lifts north into Lower Michigan will likely become a focus for the higher totals in the range.
Then the snow associated with the main vort max/cold front will move into the CWA around midnight and then continue overnight. bringing a band of light to moderate snow associated with the second wave and its associated cold front into the NW KILX CWA late this evening. NAM time-height cross-sections indicate a 3-4 hour window of time when deep-layer omega is maximized and the highest snowfall rates will be achieved. with the highest totals perhaps close to 4 inches focused north of the I-74 corridor.
Further south across north central Kansas there is still some hope of getting a little light snowfall accumulation, but a half inch may be on the high end. As stated, some flurry/light snow activity is headed our way with this arctic push, with the surface possibly cooling down fast enough to outpace the cooling of the elevated warm layer, potentially giving us a very brief period of sleet or even freezing rain as we go from sprinkle/rain potential to flurry/snow potential. The cold front will barrel south quick enough to taper off our snow chances rather quickly and less than half an inch is expected on the Nebraska side.
Strong high pressure centered to our west will start to weaken on Monday.
Will see fog development in mountain valleys and the lower Snake Plain while an easterly wind will limit development to sheltered spots in the Upper Treasure Valley.
Temperatures will drop back into the lower to middle 20s with highs on Martin Luther King Jr.
1151 PM EST Sun Jan 14 2018 High pressure will build in and crest just north of the area tonight into Monday.
Our nice little warmup today will be replaced by another arctic airmass early tomorrow morning as a fairly robust and sprawling trough in the northwest flow pattern moves into the Northern Plains and Midwest region. The surface cold front timing will be into western Kansas around midnight tonight, with very strong cold advection following very closely behind the initial wind shift.
320 AM CST Mon Jan 15 2018 Another band of snow is quickly shifting south across Kansas and Missouri early this morning as a surge of cold air sweeps into the Lower Missouri River Valley. The trough in place across the center of the Nation, responsible for our cold weather, will remain in place for a couple of days, allowing a good blast of arctic air to waft across the Plains States.
There may be a break late this evening through the morning hours across east central MN, with the column cooling below the DGZ before warmer air rotates in from the northeast Monday afternoon. Behind this main band, winds have increased due to an area of high pressure in southern Canada, continuing to strengthen, leading to strong high rises in the Dakotas. After tonight, some residual snow showers, especially in west central Wisconsin, will pivot across the region with an enhanced area of warm air advection long the deep trough moving southeast across the Great Lakes.
Temperatures in the morning will be on the cool side again, but will be a few degrees warmer than today. Mid/Upper level troughing will remain over the eastern U.
351 AM CST Mon Jan 15 2018 Closed upper low over the upper Midwest today will allow for a backdoor cold front to surge south and west this morning across the Panhandles. Light snow or flurries will accompany the low clouds behind the frontal boundary this morning through early this evening with the greatest probability mainly across the western Oklahoma and northwest Texas Panhandles today into this evening before ending later tonight.
High pressure will be maintained across the western U.
Cold front is pushing in as forecast, currently in Morgan County. Surface analysis shows cold front is moving into northeast Wyoming and the Northern High Plains this afternoon. Per cross sections and forecast soundings, there may be some freezing drizzle on this initial push of light precipitation as temps in the moist layer hold slightly warmer than -10C until about 12Z.
Areas of light snow linger along and southeast of a cold frontal band from NBDE-KBJI-KFFM-KABR. That cold front will steadily push south-eastward through the late afternoon and continue across southeastern MN duirng the evening hours. The H5 low pressure center and trof axis edges well east of the FA by early evening, so skies should continue to scattered out throughout the evening.
327 AM CST Mon Jan 15 2018 Leading edge of the cold front has pushed to near the KS/OK border with an expansive area of post-frontal precipitation across KS into southwestern MO. HRRR/HRRRX remain consistent in showing the highest snowfall totals across far northeast OK where around 1-2" will be possible with some isolated 3" amounts not out of the question.
Winds to become southwest, then west, on Monday ahead of a cold front. VFR conditions on Monday to deteriorate to MVFR after 15/22Z as cold front approaches. NW winds around 6 knots expected behind cold front across TXK/ELD by 16/00Z. /issued 915 PM CST Sun Jan 14 2018/ Water vapor imagery shows a broad trough of low pressure over the eastern half of the U. this evening, with the next system to affect us, starting to dig down the back side of this trough. Although dry and warmer conditions will prevail across the region on Monday, things will quickly deteriorate Monday evening and during the overnight hours, as this next system takes aim at our region.
Colder temperatures there as well and may have some freezing fog later. An upper level trough and cold front move through later Mon night into Tue with rain likely. This front should clear out the low clouds and fog by Tue morning. A weak upper level short wave moving across the region may result in some lifting of the low clouds and improvement of visibility at times.
Some areas of clearing have allowed temperatures to climb to around 30 degrees in the far southwest corner of MO and our western counties may climb above freezing later this afternoon. Aloft, we remain in amplified pattern with ridging in the western U. Another 1-2 inches of snow is expected with this disturbance, however temperatures will be falling throughout the day after a cold front moves through during the morning.
1052 PM CST Sun Jan 14 2018 /06Z TAFS/ The last 6 hours of this forecast period, includes wind shifts associated with the cold front tomorrow evening. In response to an approaching cold front, models indicate low-level moisture will move into our Interstate 10 corridor, around 10Z. However, the cold front may begin to move into our Interstate 20 corridor, in the 19Z to 21Z time frame; thus, the Abilene terminal may have winds from the northwest by 21Z, along with a return of MVFR ceilings. On Monday, a strong Arctic cold front will approach the Big Country by mid afternoon, then move into the Concho Valley by 6 PM. Expect temperatures to steadily fall during the afternoon behind the cold front.
Will see quite a bit of sunshine once the area of weak lift pulls out, and temps will be a bit warmer.
The 19z MSAS surface analysis showed a weak area of low pressure over northwest MN and strong high pressure over the eastern Great Lakes/Appalachians. A southerly wind between these two weather features has brought somewhat warmer air into the region, along with a deck of low clouds that has overspread all but far eastern WI.
348 AM CST Mon Jan 15 2018 Strong high pressure is building our way from southern Saskatchewan and northeastern MT, while low pressure continues to exit across WI/IL.
1133 PM CST Sun Jan 14 2018 An Arctic front is rapidly progressing south across the high plains today and bringing light snow back forecast area. The models do show the front hanging up over the higher terrain to the west, so its conceivable to see the highest snow totals over our far western counties, but even still, an inch of accumulation is not likely. With Arctic air in place, temperatures will fall below zero across northern Nebraska, but stay in the low teens across our far southwest where clouds remain for much of the night.
Forecasted snow accums from 12z today into Tue AM is 3-7 inches for the lake counties with ern Sheboygan County experiencing the highest amounts.
In the middle and upper levels(700-200 mb) latest available GOES-16R ir satelitte imagery overlaid with available model streamline analysis as of 300 am, depict a slowly flattening polar trough with the center of a middle and upper low pressure system over Northern Lake Michigan. Another, stronger, (1050 mb plus) center of arctic high pressure is over the Southern Prairie Provinces and pushing southeastwards.
1036 PM MST Sun Jan 14 2018 Essentially a blue bird day across eastern Utah and western Colorado today as a ridge of high pressure remains amplified over the western CONUS. Current temperatures are generally 2 to 6 degrees warmer than this time yesterday thanks to the abundance of sunshine under dry northwesterly flow. Otherwise, it'll be a quiet evening under mostly clear skies, though mid and high level clouds will increase over northwestern Colorado as a cold front dives south along the Front Range.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 77 60 80 60 / 80 50 40 30 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 72 58 77 60 / 80 60 50 40 Oak Ridge, TN 72 59 78 60 / 80 60 50 40 Tri Cities Airport, TN 67 54 72 55 / 40 70 60 40.
The upper ridge over the southwestern United States will flatten over the next 24 hours as a storm system moves across the northern Great Basin/northern tier of states.
Clouds were slowly increasing over the northwest CWA with precipitation reaching the higher elevations of the Sierra.
A small chance for elevated convection will be maintained tonight mainly north of I-70, as the surface front which sags south into far northern Kansas late today, begins to migrate north as a warm front overnight. Otherwise, a more significant chance for deep convection will arrive late Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday night, as a more vigorous upper trof moves east across the northern/central Plains. The increased westerly flow aloft will result in stronger deep layer shear as a cold front overtakes the dry-line across central Kansas.
Then building high pressure will bring mostly dry weather and warming temperatures late this week. Convective parameters look favorable for thunderstorms across the central valley with a slight chance possible across eastern Trinity County as showers ignite off the higher terrain.
950 AM PDT Tue Apr 18 2017 A trough over the eastern Pacific will move inland across California through Wednesday. This trough will bring seasonal temperatures today and tomorrow.
Based on these temps last week, much of the area shud reach the lower to mid 80s today. For tonight, a cdfnt will drop into IA as an upper trof treks across the nrn Plains.
Early morning radar data shows convection ongoing along the middle and upper Texas coast, with a few light showers noted over the Highway 77 corridor across south central Texas. Given the weak upper low currently across southeast Texas should move very slowly to the southeast and weaken today, current thinking is the best lift will remain over the fringe of our eastern counties. This should keep the better rain chances confined to areas east of I-35, with the highest rain chances expected along the Highway 77 corridor. Rain chances should decrease tonight and Wednesday as the upper low begins to drift farther away from the region.
Clouds wrapping around the backside of the low will stick around a bit longer, particularly over the southern counties. Temps in the south are already in the mid to upper 40s, so kept highs in the low to mid 50s although will have to keep an eye in case the readings don't rise at all. Upper level low pressure system was located over the central ND/SD border and was moving to the east at 30-35 knots.
Similar mid/upper thermal profile today compared to yesterday with relatively low freezing level so could again be the case for a handful of strong storms with small hail or strong gusty winds. Temps slightly cooler today given aforementioned wedge north, though still overall above climo norms. Slightly warmer for Wednesday.
Sounding this morning shows higher concentration of moisture through the column with precipitable water values above 1 inch and easterly flow in the lower levels.
Lows tonight are not expected to get quite down to freezing, with mid 30s to lower 40s anticipated.
Cyclogenesis occurs in eastern Colorado with inverted trof extending north to another weak low in Alberta.
Showers and thunderstorms will once again develop across the region late this morning and through the afternoon as temperatures rise into the lower 80s and combine with a moist airmass in place(characterized by a 1. At this point, it looks like the best coverage of storms will be generally along and northwest of the Natchez Trace corridor as a broad trough will remain in the vicinity of our region and a stalled front remains to our north. /28/ Warm conditions will continue through the rest of the work week with a pattern change not expected until this weekend as a strong upper system and associated cold front sweep through the region.
100 PM EDT Tue Apr 18 2017 A cold front moving south through the area will stall in vicinity of the SC border this afternoon, then head back to the north as a warm front on Wednesday.
High pressure moves east tonight with return flow increasing west into central.
The cold front that moved through the state yesterday bringing gusty winds and showers is now over the Dakotas.
High pressure will ridge across the area from the Atlantic through the period with weak upper ridging in place aloft. Isolated to scattered showers will be possible across the southern half of the area this afternoon with the highest rain chances over the southern zones.
1052 AM MDT Tue Apr 18 2017 Latest surface analysis shows a warm front extending SE from southern Alberta through northern Montana. As far as this afternoon goes, the low/mid levels are fairly dry right now which should generally inhibit shower/thunderstorm development initially. A cold front will cross the area from west to east this evening as well.
Short wave ridging aloft should keep thunder at bay. Morning low level moisture will mix out a bit with afternoon dew points ranging from the 40s on the Caprock to the lower to mid 50s east. Increasing heights and thicknesses point to warmer temperatures for the area. Though under more zonal-like flow aloft, Wednesday will be on the warm side as we will be situated under the axis of a thickness ridge.
A cold front will cross the area this afternoon and tonight.
Low stratus has redeveloped in some areas southeast of the higher elevation of the Ozarks Plateau where low level moisture and upslope flow has developed with an e to se sfc winds. Light winds will veer to the south with a frontal trough moving into IA/KS late by late in the day.
1054 AM CDT Tue Apr 18 2017 Plenty of low clouds have wrapped in behind the departing low pressure system over the past few hours. Feel this, along with the coolish 925/850mb temps will act to keep highs a few degrees cooler than anticipated. High pressure nosing down out of Canada will provide for weak cold and dry air advection today, and generally temperatures will be around climo. There are actually two distinct waves, embedded within zonal flow, and result in two weak low pressure centers that eventually consolidate across Nebraska. Profiles during that time are also just barely above melting, with temperatures in the lowest 5kft ranging between +0 and +2C.
1021 AM EDT Tue Apr 18 2017 High pressure will build over the area through early Wednesday.
902 AM EDT Tue Apr 18 2017 Latest water vapor and upper air analysis this morning shows a southern stream trough over Texas and into the western Gulf of Mexico with the flow then becoming weakly ridged over Florida. At the surface, the high pressure ridge axis extends westward from the western Atlantic across northern Florida, with an east to southeast low-level flow across the local area.
1209 PM EDT Tue Apr 18 2017 A weak cold front across along the NC and SC border will slowly move southward today and stall over the southern Midlands through Wednesday. Wednesday night the front will weaken and return northward as a ridge of high pressure builds in.
1045 AM EDT Tue Apr 18 2017 Hydro Fair weather will continue through the afternoon then showers will arrive this evening and tonight along a cold front.
1025 AM EDT Tue Apr 18 2017 H100-H70 ridge over the FL/GA border continues to dominate the lcl WX pattern, maintaining a light but steady E/SE flow acrs the FL peninsula.
Then an upper low located at about 26. This dry surge of air looks to hang on through the work week as a stronger upper low moves east into the central gulf.
Otherwise, dry conditions will prevail as upper ridging builds over the area from the west. Highs this afternoon will be in the lower 80s, close to seasonal normals. Morning lows tomorrow will be in the lower 60s, around 10 degrees warmer than seasonal normals.
839 AM EDT Tue Apr 18 2017 High pressure will ensure dry weather into Wednesday. The latter half of the week will feature increased rain chances as a series of low pressure systems affect the region. Highs will be around 10 degrees warmer than average.
This will keep a cold front located across N GA/AL at bay and associated precipitation north of our area.
High pressure over the southeast states will bring a breezy southwest wind. Toward the end of the period, a new cold front will be on the horizon in the Plains.
857 AM EDT Tue Apr 18 2017 High pressure in the Great Lakes will move east today and return flow will set up in the Ohio Valley.
Upper level low pressure system was located over the central ND/SD border and was moving to the east at 30-35 knots.
1240 PM EDT Tue Apr 18 2017 A cold front moving south through the area will stall in vicinity of the SC border this afternoon, then head back to the north as a warm front on Wednesday.
88D mosaic already showing narrow line of storms advancing eastward across cntrl SD/n-cntrl Neb along a surface trof associated with low pressure centered in cntrl SD. Sfc obs were showing a decent moisture feed fueling the convection with Tds in the low/mid 50s. Increasing DPVA induces leeside low over ern CO early Wednesday morning with convection developing along attendant warm front extending across Neb into IA.
Weak cold front should continue to slide a little farther to the southeast before it stalls. 88D mosaic already showing narrow line of storms advancing eastward across cntrl SD/n-cntrl Neb along a surface trof associated with low pressure centered in cntrl SD. Sfc obs were showing a decent moisture feed fueling the convection with Tds in the lower/mid 50s. Increasing DPVA induces leeside low over ern CO early Wednesday morning with convection developing along attendant warm front extending across Neb into IA.
1154 AM EDT Tue Apr 18 2017 High pressure will ensure dry weather into Wednesday. The latter half of the week will feature increased rain chances as a series of low pressure systems affect the region. The combination of warm April sun, building heights, and establishing a partial southerly wind component lead to highs about 10 degrees warmer than average today. Warm, moist advection will continue tonight, as high pressure slowly oozes eastward. These could continue through Wednesday afternoon as a weak warm front lifts north of the area, but a focused lifting mechanism is lacking. Increasing easterly/southeasterly winds in the low-levels will dam up moisture and colder air east of the ridges tonight. This should keep these eastern facing slopes cooler than the rest of the forecast area, which will see lows about 10 degrees warmer than average.
High pressure nosing down out of Canada will provide for weak cold and dry air advection today, and generally temperatures will be around climo. There are actually two distinct waves, embedded within zonal flow, and result in two weak low pressure centers that eventually consolidate across Nebraska. Profiles during that time are also just barely above melting, with temperatures in the lowest 5kft ranging between +0 and +2C.
1036 AM EDT Tue Apr 18 2017 High pressure will build down over the region from eastern Canada bringing fair but cool weather today into tonight. Our next chance of showers will come on Wednesday, as a warm front approaches the area. There may be some terrain induced fair weather cu through midday as the moist layer mixes out, but overall, the subsidence beneath high pressure should win the day with much of our area experiencing wall to wall sunshine. Lows tonight will range from near freezing east of I-81 to the lower and mid 40s over the Finger Lakes. On Wednesday, thermal advection forcing ahead of an advancing low-level warm front should bring some showers by afternoon, especially across our Finger Lakes, Lake Ontario plain, and southern Tug Hill areas in CNY.
The trough is expected to lift slightly north and east today therefore the area most susceptible for precipitation will shift to the southeast half of our CWA.
1004 AM EDT Tue Apr 18 2017 A weak cold front across along the NC and SC border will slowly move southward today and stall over the southern Midlands through Wednesday. Wednesday night the front will weaken and return northward as a ridge of high pressure builds in.
A vigorous short wave trough is evident in the latest water vapor imagery over central SD and south central ND. Another warm day on tap with highs forecast 10-14 degrees above normal in the lower to mid 70s. Surface dew points increasing into the lower 50s by this evening across the southern-third of the local forecast area. GFS Ensemble mean indicates two closed lows will move across the region.
Meanwhile a weak mid level trough is situated over the Mid-South along with deep moisture. /issued 358 AM CDT Tue Apr 18 2017/ A low amplitude pattern will prevail over the lower 48 states the next few days. 5 inches and dewpoints in the lower 60s will combine with this shear axis to provide weak convective inhibition over the Midsouth.
A long wave trough will remain off the west coast into this weekend. the trough will approach the coast and weaken. then short waves diving down the backside of the trough will dig and form a replacement trough farther offshore.
/issued 309 AM CDT Tue Apr 18 2017/ The upper levels will have a ridge extending up across the region from Mexico today while a broad trough moves onto the CA coast. This trough will pass well to the north but will flatten the ridge out.
The Lower Keys will continue to observed light rain, which is expected to continue for the next few hours. Thanks to a rainy and cloudy morning, temperatures have been able to only reach the mid 70s along the Lower Keys. Radar also shows that the Lower Keys will continue to experience light rain for the next few hours.
718 AM EDT Tue Apr 18 2017 Aviation Fair weather will continue through the afternoon then showers will arrive this evening and tonight along a cold front.