Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
We were north of the surface warm front and had winds gusting to 35 kts from the east. The NAM is the colder of the solutions and keeps the low and warm front further south. The cold front is expected to move through the area tomorrow morning and could have showers and storms associated with it as well. SPC also has a risk for severe weather tomorrow morning into the early afternoon with the cold front. This cold front has a conditional severe threat associated with it.
205 PM MDT Tue Mar 29 2022 Deep upper trough continues to push east as the pattern shifts back to WNW flow for the remainder of the period. The next upper trough will then approach the region Thurs, with front side ridging and WAA allowing for more seasonal temps in the 50s on the plains. Strong and gusty northwest winds will persist into Wednesday morning as a cold front moves through the area today.
Breezy conditions today in the wake of an exiting low pressure system. The low stratus across the western Magic Valley will break out by noon today, allowing for shower and possible thunderstorm development this afternoon.
JB Chattanooga Airport, TN 54 80 57 70 42 / 0 0 100 20 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 48 79 58 73 41 / 0 0 100 60 10 Oak Ridge, TN 47 78 57 71 40 / 0 0 100 60 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 41 75 57 74 40 / 0 0 90 80 30 NC.
Precip chances briefly return late tonight/early Wednesday morning as a strong broad scale upper level trough of low pressure shifts east through the Central Plains. Relatively weak QPF fields and much drier air in the lower levels suggest minimal rain amounts and snow accumulations possible. Much cooler temperatures are still likely Wednesday as a colder air mass remains stretched across the Western High Plains with H85 temperatures ranging from around 0C in central Kansas to near 5C in extreme southwest Kansas. Expect highs only up into the mid/upper 40s(F) up closer to the I-70 corridor with the lower/mid 50s(F) possible farther south near the Oklahoma border. A closed low in northwest flow is expected to move across Kansas Wednesday night.
216 PM CDT Tue Mar 29 2022 Southerly flow has returned to the low levels as the upper ridge is sliding eastward. The strong upper trough moving east from the Plains will take the place of the ridge tonight and tomorrow, and pave the way for our strong to severe storm threat tomorrow. Wind shear remains very strong, both deep layer shear and the lowest 1 km. Will be keeping a close eye on any additional sunshine tomorrow, warmer temperatures, or increasing dewpoints as those will all support more instability, and increase the severe threat, especially for the western half.
As the high moves offshore tomorrow expect a big warmup.
A strong upper level trough and associated cold front will move eastward through the day on Wednesday. The upper trough takes on a negative tilt Wednesday afternoon and evening as a powerful 130 knots jet streak moves into the region. A line of severe thunderstorms (QLCS) will develop to our west and strengthen Wednesday afternoon as it moves across the lower MS river valley.
Temperatures near to or below freezing will be present near sunrise Wednesday.
Building upper ridge will bring dry weather tomorrow, with temps rebounding to the 50s/near 60 over our western lower elevations.
Precip chances briefly return late tonight/early Wednesday morning as a strong broad scale upper level trough of low pressure shifts east through the Central Plains. Relatively weak QPF fields and much drier air in the lower levels suggest minimal rain amounts and snow accumulations possible. Much cooler temperatures are still likely Wednesday as a colder air mass remains stretched across the Western High Plains with H85 temperatures ranging from around 0C in central Kansas to near 5C in extreme southwest Kansas. Expect highs only up into the mid/upper 40s(F) up closer to the I-70 corridor with the lower/mid 50s(F) possible farther south near the Oklahoma border.
120 PM EDT Tue Mar 29 2022 High pressure extending from the Upper Great Lakes to the Ohio Valley will drift east across Central Pennsylvania later this afternoon before reaching the east coast late tonight.
103 PM EDT Tue Mar 29 2022 High pressure extending from the Upper Great Lakes to the Ohio Valley will drift east across Central Pennsylvania later this afternoon before reaching the east coast late tonight.
The main show arrives tonight and continues through Wednesday as a series of vorticity maximum work over the area and phase together within the main upper level trough. This will provide synoptic lift and paired with the low level jet and ample moisture advection will bring periods of rain and even thunderstorms through Wednesday. Wednesday night colder air advects in on the backside of the low resulting in a change to a rain snow mix and eventually snow especially for areas north and west of Madison.
High pressure will be to the northeast Tonight, then more toward the east on Wednesday. Temperatures Tonight will range from the mid to upper 50s inland to the lower 60s coast.
741 PM MDT Tue Mar 29 2022 The strong to high winds are weakening below high wind thresholds, thus will allow the high wind warnings expire at 8 PM. This evening through Wednesday night The H5 trough axis continues to sweep east, with the main circulation noted on WV imagery centered in the Nebraska Panhandle. This has turned steering winds from the north, and has helped push the cold front through most of the state this afternoon. Skies will clear quickly behind the departing trough, allowing temps to fall quickly, especially across northwest WY, falling into the teens there, and into the low to mid 20s for lower elevations. Ridging quickly sweeps through on Wednesday in between systems, keeping conditions tranquil and temperatures near normal for late March.
A cold front moved through western and north central Nebraska today. Cooler air within the storms means that hail is possible, but it should stay subsevere. A secondary upper level low will move into Nebraska from the north tomorrow morning which should provide enough lift for additional light snow in northern Nebraska during the day. It will be showery in nature and as temperatures increase during the day to above freezing, it will likely transition to a rain snow mix or snow pellets. The highest totals will be near the South Dakota state line, between 1 and 2 inches at most. Skies will gradually clear out on Wednesday night, and with decent radiational cooling and northwesterly winds lows will cool into the low 20s.
648 PM CDT Tue Mar 29 2022 A cold front moved through western and north central Nebraska today. Cooler air within the storms means that hail is possible, but it should stay subsevere. A secondary upper level low will move into Nebraska from the north tomorrow morning which should provide enough lift for additional light snow in northern Nebraska during the day. It will be showery in nature and as temperatures increase during the day to above freezing, it will likely transition to a rain snow mix or snow pellets. The highest totals will be near the South Dakota state line, between 1 and 2 inches at most. Skies will gradually clear out on Wednesday night, and with decent radiational cooling and northwesterly winds lows will cool into the low 20s.
Subsidence beneath the incoming upper level ridge could keep some broken mid level clouds across far SW MT later into tonight with mainly clear skies otherwise across the area. Hoenisch Quiet conditions are expected over the region tonight as warmer air returns to the region for one day on Wednesday.
A cold front will sweep across the region during the day as well, bringing cooler (though still mild) temperatures along with drier air.
However some intensification could occur as the low level jet strengthens this evening. We can't rule out a tornado either as the low level hodograph elongates in response to the strengthening low level jet. Warm front had pushed north into northeast Kansas at 18Z with dewpoints in the 50s in the warm sector. Main forcing mechanism early on looks to be dry line convergence in south-central Kansas late this afternoon with storms spreading northeast into the early evening, then cold frontal convergence pushing in after sunset from northwest to southeast.
Temperatures should fall into the lower 40's to mid 50's. Diegan Chattanooga Airport, TN 54 80 57 70 42 / 0 0 100 30 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 50 79 58 73 41 / 0 0 100 60 10 Oak Ridge, TN 49 78 57 72 40 / 0 0 100 60 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 43 76 57 74 40 / 0 0 90 80 30 NC.
950 PM EDT Tue Mar 29 2022 High pressure anchored over the southeastern United States and the Keys resulted in mostly clear skies and calm weather conditions. The high will slowly slide to the east tonight and Wednesday, resulting in a tightening of the pressure gradient over the Keys Marine zones. High pressure perched over the southeastern United States and Florida will slide to the east over the next several days.
This evening through Wednesday night The H5 trough axis continues to sweep east, with the main circulation noted on WV imagery centered in the Nebraska Panhandle. This has turned steering winds from the north, and has helped push the cold front through most of the state this afternoon. Skies will clear quickly behind the departing trough, allowing temps to fall quickly, especially across northwest WY, falling into the teens there, and into the low to mid 20s for lower elevations. Ridging quickly sweeps through on Wednesday in between systems, keeping conditions tranquil and temperatures near normal for late March.
336 PM MDT Tue Mar 29 2022 The core of the upper jet has fully relocated to the downstream portion of this Western trough. The main upper low in the base of the trough is showing up nicely in H2O this afternoon near the central AZ/NM line. Not as apparent but visible are two circulations dropping through the back of the trough. The highest amounts continue to be pinpointed above Ouray on the north facing slopes of the San Juan Range. A trailing wave gets absorbed into the back of the trough and drops through the eastern half of the CO on Wednesday. Expect a trough passage every few days.
526 PM MDT Tue Mar 29 2022 Deep upper trough continues to push east as the pattern shifts back to WNW flow for the remainder of the period. The next upper trough will then approach the region Thurs, with front side ridging and WAA allowing for more seasonal temps in the 50s on the plains.
545 PM MDT Tue Mar 29 2022 Updated Aviation Discussion Quiet conditions are expected over the region tonight as warmer air returns to the region for one day on Wednesday.
555 PM MDT Tue Mar 29 2022 The core of the upper jet has fully relocated to the downstream portion of this Western trough. The main upper low in the base of the trough is showing up nicely in H2O this afternoon near the central AZ/NM line. Not as apparent but visible are two circulations dropping through the back of the trough. The highest amounts continue to be pinpointed above Ouray on the north facing slopes of the San Juan Range. A trailing wave gets absorbed into the back of the trough and drops through the eastern half of the CO on Wednesday. Expect a trough passage every few days.
235 PM PDT Tue Mar 29 2022 The arrival of a cold front on Wednesday will bring a chance of showers to northeast Washington and far north Idaho along with breezy winds.
Approaching low pressure/frontal system could bring scattered showers overnight as high precipitable water and a warm front lift into the area, but so far no precipitation across the area and will be trimming back short-term PoPs. As the low pressure area moves close to northwest IL tomorrow, the pressure gradient will tighten, increasing the winds and the waa. Showers are possible late tonight through tomorrow, but the main focus will be a line of thunderstorms expected to develop ahead of the cold front tomorrow morning and move through the CWA during the afternoon. Continued waa tomorrow will bring much warmer temps to the area with most areas in the 60s with lower to middle 70s in southeast IL. Cooler temps are expected Wed night with temps in the middle 30s to lower 40s.
In the meantime a cold front will have entered northwestern Oklahoma with gusty northwest winds. Winds will subside during the afternoon in northwestern Oklahoma and over central Oklahoma by sunset as the front moves very quickly into the lower Mississippi valley.
Precipitation is expected to continue this evening across the High Country, with light snow for elevations at and above 7000 feet.
Strong winds are expected to continue from now through the overnight hours until the early Wednesday morning passage of a cold front. /issued Issued by National Weather Service Lake Charles LA/ SHORT TERM (Tonight through Wednesday Night): Strong trough located over the southwestern states to progress east northeastward into the southern plains over the course of the evening and into tonight.
The storm was also responsible for the cooler daytime temperatures, gusty winds, and high elevation snow showers. Otherwise, ensemble solutions favored a low amplitude high pressure ridge over the region which will keep the main storm track north of the area.
Southerly flow has returned to the low levels as the upper ridge is sliding eastward. The strong upper trough moving east from the Plains will take the place of the ridge tonight and tomorrow, and pave the way for our strong to severe storm threat tomorrow. Wind shear remains very strong, both deep layer shear and the lowest 1 km. Will be keeping a close eye on any additional sunshine tomorrow, warmer temperatures, or increasing dewpoints as those will all support more instability, and increase the severe threat, especially for the western half.
652 PM EDT Tue Mar 29 2022 High pressure extending from the Upper Great Lakes to the Ohio Valley will drift east across Central Pennsylvania later this afternoon before reaching the east coast late tonight.
SHORT TERM (Tonight through Wednesday Night): Strong trough located over the southwestern states to progress east northeastward into the southern plains over the course of the evening and into tonight.
Cloudy skies and a persistent marine layer continue as a cold front approaches from the north.
Southerly low level jet will continue to increase through the day as upper trough approaches from the west, with guidance showing 50+ kts at just 1k ft agl. Speaking of heating, tomorrow looks like the warmest day so far this year with much of the cwa reaching the low to mid 80s. Despite the meager instability, the strength of the upper trough and associated 115kt H5 jet streak, QLCS storm mode, and extreme shear indicate damaging winds will be a significant threat with the line of storms. Tornadoes are much more uncertain due to the low MLCAPE, but currently appears there may be just enough for a couple of tornadoes - mainly in our southwest counties south of I-40 and west of I-65.
08z/3am surface analysis shows a warm front lifting slowly northward into central Illinois. Am still anticipating high temperatures ranging from the lower 60s in the Illinois River Valley. Since this activity is coming into a more stable airmass north of the warm front, am expecting this initial surge of convection to weaken/dissipate over the next couple of hours. All CAMs depict a narrow line of convection developing within a larger rain area, and think this line will have the capability of tapping into the higher momentum air aloft to bring scattered damaging wind gusts down to the surface. The primary line of storms will quickly push into Indiana by around 23z/6pm-00z/7pm: however, additional showers and isolated thunder will develop and spread into the area ahead of a cold front this evening.
1143 PM MDT Tue Mar 29 2022 The core of the upper jet has fully relocated to the downstream portion of this Western trough. The main upper low in the base of the trough is showing up nicely in H2O this afternoon near the central AZ/NM line. Not as apparent but visible are two circulations dropping through the back of the trough. The highest amounts continue to be pinpointed above Ouray on the north facing slopes of the San Juan Range. A trailing wave gets absorbed into the back of the trough and drops through the eastern half of the CO on Wednesday. Expect a trough passage every few days.
Clouds thin from north to south throughout the day as a narrow ridge aloft brings increasing subsidence.
955 PM PDT Tue Mar 29 2022 The arrival of a cold front on Wednesday will bring a chance of showers to northeast Washington and far north Idaho, along with breezy winds.
A trough of low pressure over the Pacific Northwest will push a cold front through the Northern Rockies this evening. Gusts of 25-35 mph will be probable in the higher terrain and across northwest Montana.
217 AM MDT Wed Mar 30 2022 Sunny and seasonably warm and dry conditions are expected today under a strong high pressure system.
A strong cold front was currently making its way through the Texas Panhandle and will soon enter the South Plains. This cold front will be required to provide its own lift and moisture to produce any precipitation. Subsidence aloft was seen in water vapor imagery in the wake of the short wave trough which brought yesterday's winds. The other issue with the cold front will be another day of strong winds.
104 AM PDT Wed Mar 30 2022 High temperatures this afternoon will be around five degrees warmer than yesterday afternoon.
1253 AM MDT Wed Mar 30 2022 The core of the upper jet has fully relocated to the downstream portion of this Western trough. The main upper low in the base of the trough is showing up nicely in H2O this afternoon near the central AZ/NM line. Not as apparent but visible are two circulations dropping through the back of the trough. The highest amounts continue to be pinpointed above Ouray on the north facing slopes of the San Juan Range. A trailing wave gets absorbed into the back of the trough and drops through the eastern half of the CO on Wednesday. Expect a trough passage every few days.
This trough and attendant cold front will traverse the region throughout the day.
Winds will veer from southwest to northwest by late morning or early afternoon as a cold front sweeps across the region, ushering in cooler and drier air.
1000 PM MDT Tue Mar 29 2022 The strong to high winds are weakening below high wind thresholds, thus will allow the high wind warnings expire at 8 PM. This evening through Wednesday night The H5 trough axis continues to sweep east, with the main circulation noted on WV imagery centered in the Nebraska Panhandle. This has turned steering winds from the north, and has helped push the cold front through most of the state this afternoon. Skies will clear quickly behind the departing trough, allowing temps to fall quickly, especially across northwest WY, falling into the teens there, and into the low to mid 20s for lower elevations. Ridging quickly sweeps through on Wednesday in between systems, keeping conditions tranquil and temperatures near normal for late March.
Additional showers and a few storms will be possible through the day as the system cold front pushes southeastward beneath cooling temps aloft.
Clearing skies from west to east with the building high pressure can be expected, though the east may remain cloudy through the evening. A chilly night tonight should be in store under the influence of the high pressure and radiational cooling setup.
333 AM EDT Wed Mar 30 2022 Broad upper level troughing is ejecting into the Great Plains today as weak ridging slides east across the eastern US. A tight pressure gradient between the areas of high and low pressure will create breezy southerly/southeasterly flow across the Florida Peninsula today favoring warm temperatures and increasing humidity.
/issued 956 PM CDT Tue Mar 29 2022/ Severe weather threat is still primed to increase across the entire region during the morning hours on Wednesday and continue throughout the day as a cold front advances eastward from Texas. As for this evening, did add some slight chance PoPs across our western zones through the remainder of the evening hours through midnight as some shower activity has already begun well ahead of the much stronger convection developing out across NW Texas and into western and central Oklahoma along the advancing dry line and cold front.
Deep upper trough continues to push east as the pattern shifts back to WNW flow for the remainder of the period. The next upper trough will then approach the region Thurs, with front side ridging and WAA allowing for more seasonal temps in the 50s on the plains.
Strong southerly winds continue through the overnight until a cold front arrives early Wednesday morning. Winds turn westerly to northwesterly through Wednesday morning and slowly diminish behind the cold front. MVFR conditions will prevail through the night before ceilings lift to VFR following the cold front's passage. Strong winds are expected to continue from now through the overnight hours until the early Wednesday morning passage of a cold front. /issued Issued by National Weather Service Lake Charles LA/ SHORT TERM (Tonight through Wednesday Night): Strong trough located over the southwestern states to progress east northeastward into the southern plains over the course of the evening and into tonight.
Southerly low level jet will continue to increase through the day as upper trough approaches from the west, with guidance showing 50+ kts at just 1k ft agl. Speaking of heating, tomorrow looks like the warmest day so far this year with much of the cwa reaching the low to mid 80s. Despite the meager instability, the strength of the upper trough and associated 115kt H5 jet streak, QLCS storm mode, and extreme shear indicate damaging winds will be a significant threat with the line of storms. Tornadoes are much more uncertain due to the low MLCAPE, but currently appears there may be just enough for a couple of tornadoes - mainly in our southwest counties south of I-40 and west of I-65. Surface winds are already increasing ahead of an approaching cold front.
Mainly dry and warmer weather arrives for the rest of this week, with temperatures rising to above normal by this weekend.
Temperatures should fall into the lower 40's to mid 50's. CD Chattanooga Airport, TN 80 57 70 42 64 / 0 100 30 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 79 58 73 41 61 / 0 100 60 10 0 Oak Ridge, TN 78 57 72 40 62 / 0 100 60 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 76 57 74 40 57 / 0 90 80 30 0 NC.
For tonight, as high pressure begins to build over the region low clouds and fog will once again be possible. High pressure building over the region briefly gets knocked down on Wednesday as a dry front pushes through the region. High pressure quickly rebuilds to round out the workweek and heading into the weekend. The building high pressure will lead to a warming and drying trend as temperatures are at or above seasonal averages. A cold front sweeps through the area tomorrow afternoon bringing drier air to the lower levels and gusty post-frontal NW winds. Gusty NW winds in the afternoon and evening as the dry cold front moves through. KSFO Bridge Approach.
Highs today will be much cooler than the past few days, ranging from the mid and upper 60s up in the Big Country to the mid 70s around the I-10 corridor.
Since late evening, several surface observations from airports indicated freezing rain, with some sleet, rain and snow. MnDOT and surface road sensors indicated only wet roadways where freezing rain was indicated. This area was associated with the deformation zone which should weaken and reform over IA/WI later tonight as the secondary area of low pressure develops over the Midwest. Elsewhere, only a light dusting is likely as surface temperatures hold near the freezing mark.
Weak high pressure will build into the region today.
217 AM MDT Wed Mar 30 2022 An amplified upper ridge will build over the region today producing dry weather with temps rebounding to the 50s/near 60 over our western lower elevations. Next Pacific trough will introduce precip to our western mountains late tonight with lows ranging from 30s west to 20s east.