Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Today-Tonight: Temperatures are expected to edge another degree or two warmer than yesterday with a slight increase in 1000-850 thicknesses.
An area of low pressure off of the northern California coast will maintain seasonably cool temperatures with widespread night and morning low clouds through Tuesday. Warmer conditions return for the second half of the week as the upper level ridge builds back over California.
322 AM EDT Tue Jul 25 2017 A cold front will drop south into the region through the day today, stalling across the Carolinas on Wednesday. Meanwhile, the upper level trough will continue moving eastward out over the Atlantic, allowing high pressure to once again build into the region.
This latter feature will round up the northwest side of the upper ridge into western CO later tonight. On Tuesday this wave rounds up the west side of the ridge and continues to the northeast across northern CO through the day. Lee trof deepens across the plains and kicks eastward during the afternoon.
1234 AM CDT Tue Jul 25 2017 An upper level ridge remains in place across the area today with dry conditions expected for the next 24 hours. Winds will be quite gusty out of the south tomorrow ahead of the advancing cold front which could hopefully help mitigate some of the heat.
348 AM EDT Tue Jul 25 2017 Today: High pressure with deep subtropical ridge will remain in place with east to southeast flow today. Stay hydrated as much as possible! Overnight lows will be in the mid to upper 70s with some locations along the east coast in the lower 80s.
Today Through Wednesday Night The area of high pressure aloft will continue over the middle part of the country through Wednesday.
Temperatures will warm into the mid 70s to near 80 under good insolation and dry conditions, with lakeshore areas a little cooler as the lake breeze works in during the afternoon. The ridge will break down late tonight and Wednesday as the strong upper wave over Saskatchewan moves across Ontario. This will draw warmer air into the region on Wednesday and increase mixing, resulting in what will likely be the warmest day of the week with highs in the low/mid 80s. The front will only slowly sink southward into central Michigan Wednesday evening and overnight as the upper trough exits east into Quebec and it becomes parallel to upper flow.
410 AM EDT Tue Jul 25 2017 Upper level low pressure will slowly pull east of the area today with any morning showers ending and skies trending mainly clear by late afternoon or early evening.
The highest PoPs (categorical 80%) will be across our AL/GA zones.
322 AM CDT Tue Jul 25 2017 Today-Tonight: Temperatures are expected to edge another degree or two warmer than yesterday with a slight increase in 1000-850 thicknesses.
405 AM EDT Tue Jul 25 2017 High pressure builds in from the west today. allowing some warmer air back into the region.
230 AM CDT Tue Jul 25 2017 Upper ridge over the southwestern US will deepen and shift east into the Plains today, bringing a return to hot and humid conditions. 850 hPa temps rising to near 21-22 C will be supportive of surface temperatures in the lower to middle 90s across much of the region this afternoon. Meanwhile easterly surface winds have brought dewpoints down into the 60s, but gradual veering through the day will bring them back into the lower to middle 70s through the afternoon.
The moisture is being directed into our area from an upper trough near the northern California coast. The highest precipitable water values of around an inch exist across the southern parts of the forecast area. The upper trough is projected to track very slowly to the northeast through northern California tonight and Wednesday.
Went above guidance for dewpoints in this region given the overnight rainfall across west central Minnesota, climatological peak of evapotranspiration, as well as the expected pooling of dewpoints along the warm front. Hodographs along the warm front would be favorable for a tornado or two, and SPC has a 5% contour in this region if surface-based storms are able to develop by early evening. Widespread convection is expected closer to sunset when the low level jet decouples from the boundary layer. Thunderstorms will be ongoing early Wednesday morning ahead of the cold front pushing into southern and eastern MN.
643 AM EDT Tue Jul 25 2017 An upper trough will slide to the Northeast U. In its wake, high pressure will build southeast from the Great Lakes and become centered over the Middle Atlantic Region on Wednesday.
154 AM EDT Tue Jul 25 2017 A cold front will drop south into the region through the day today, stalling across the Carolinas on Wednesday. The main portion of the upper level trough across the Northeast and Mid Atlantic shifts east and lifts on Tuesday and Tuesday night while a shear axis lays down east-northeast to west-southwest from near Cape Hatteras to central GA. At the same time, the associated cold front drops south into NC on Tuesday afternoon and evening and then stalls toward the NC and SC border by daybreak Wednesday. Highs on Tuesday will range in the lower 90s but could be cooler near the VA border if the cooler air is aggressive.
The weak 850mb trough remains just northeast of the area with some supportive jet features in the larger synoptic scale flow between an upper low over the gulf and an upper trough sinking southward over northern Louisana/Mississippi. The real interesting weather scenario will be an actual cold front that looks to move into the area over the weekend.
WV imagery also suggests slightly drier air at the lower levels. Given fact that we've actually got a small westerly component to our flow later today, I'm inclined to keep the highest PoPs east of Tucson and only hang onto 10-20 PoPs across the metro area with even lower values to the west.
416 AM EDT Tue Jul 25 2017 High pressure will provide another comfortable day with relatively low humidity and high temperatures near 80. A brief warmup will occur Wednesday prior to the arrival of a cold front.
Sprawling upper level ridging centered over the central and southern high plains slides toward the Deep South as a short wave trough tracks from the central Gulf coastal states to just off the southeast U. In response an Atlantic upper ridge will reside over most of the FL peninsula today then shift southward some and weaken slightly tonight and Wed. At the surface a broad ridge of high pressure stretches from the Atlantic to the Gulf of Mexico with an axis across FL in the vicinity of Tampa Bay and Lake Okeechobee. POPs run 20 to 40 percent with the highest odds in southeastern and southern locations during the afternoons. by 2-3 degrees for the highs and 2-4 degrees for the lows.
230 AM CDT Tue Jul 25 2017 The upper ridge will remain firmly entrenched across the southern Plains. with high temperatures perhaps a degree or two warmer than today. A pattern change will ensue going into late this week as the upper ridge retrogrades and northwesterly flow develops across the region.
The disturbance will round the ridge over Colorado and move east across the area this afternoon.
629 AM EDT Tue Jul 25 2017 High pressure will provide another comfortable day with relatively low humidity and high temperatures near 80. A brief warmup will occur Wednesday prior to the arrival of a cold front.
153 AM EDT Tue Jul 25 2017 Aviation High pressure from Canada will bring cooler and drier weather through Tuesday. Another cold front moves through on Wednesday with a chance of strong thunderstorms. The focus of the short term will be for Wednesday with convection ahead of advancing cold front and amplifying upper trough possibly including some strong to severe storms. Sfc ridging holds on through early Wednesday with the earliest chance for storms being across the northwest zones Wednesday afternoon or evening. In fact, with clear skies and winds going light, tonight could see the coolest temperatures for the month of July to this point with some of the cooler locations dropping down into the 40s.
630 AM EDT Tue Jul 25 2017 A dry and stable environment will persist through tonight as high pressure slowly builds through the region. Temperatures will warm into the mid 70s to near 80 under good insolation and dry conditions, with lakeshore areas a little cooler as the lake breeze works in during the afternoon. The ridge will break down late tonight and Wednesday as the strong upper wave over Saskatchewan moves across Ontario. This will draw warmer air into the region on Wednesday and increase mixing, resulting in what will likely be the warmest day of the week with highs in the low/mid 80s. The front will only slowly sink southward into central Michigan Wednesday evening and overnight as the upper trough exits east into Quebec and it becomes parallel to upper flow.
314 AM CDT Tue Jul 25 2017 In the mid-levels, the upper ridge continues to build over the central US through the day keeping dry conditions and hot temperatures this afternoon. Dewpoints range from the mid-60s near central Kansas to the lower 70s in far eastern Kansas leading to heat indices ranging from 98-106 degrees across the area, with the hottest indices in far eastern Kansas. Went with a Heat Advisory for portions of the area this afternoon where the highest indicies are seen. The ridge begins to flatten through the evening bringing more zonal flow across northern Kansas by early tomorrow morning. At the surface, low pressure deepens near the Rockies through the evening and a wave kicks this feature westward into western Kansas during the overnight hours.
Quiet weather is expected through the period with neutral upper- level flow and high pressure building across the area at this surface. Once the low clouds fade (they have been trending more cellular with time), the mostly clear skies and light winds anticipated may be conducive to fog development. Current model guidance is not too excited about fog tonight, but they weren't excited about the low clouds either, leading to low confidence in their output.
It's another muggy and mild morning across the Mid-State, with 3 am temperatures ranging from the middle 60s along the Cumberland Plateau to the lower and middle 70s elsewhere. Look for another hot and humid day, and have gone closer to the warmer MET MOS numbers for today, and really don't see much reason why temperatures shouldn't be as warm as yesterday's readings. Upper ridge builds back into Middle Tennessee, out of the lower and middle Mississippi Valley, on Wednesday, and helps to keep temperatures hot and pushes maximum afternoon heat index values into the 98 to 102 deg range.
243 AM EDT Tue Jul 25 2017 High pressure will provide dry weather through at least Wednesday. A Cold front may produce some storms late in the work week. High pressure builds back in for the weekend with improving weather expected. The cold frontal boundary continues to push southeastward and will progress far enough south to allow high pressure to build down from the Great Lakes. This will allow us to enjoy the first of what should be back-to-back days that remain dry, along with cooler temperatures and a drier airmass.
Water vapor imagery this afternoon seems to indicate the circulation of the upper high has now shifted into W. Moisture is surging northward on the backside of the high with PWAT doubling at KGJT overnight. Arizona begins lifting around the periphery of the upper high.
Along the island chain, skies are mostly clear to partly cloudy with temperatures holding in the lower to mid 80s. Surface wise, a western Atlantic ridge remains firmly in place across the Florida peninsula and it extends well into the Gulf of Mexico. Little change in the large scale pattern with a tenacious low and mid level western Atlantic ridge axis meandering across the south Florida peninsula for the next several days. High temperatures will average in the lower 90s with overnight lows in the lower to mid 80s. The persistent low and mid level ridge axis will linger well into this weekend, but with a decoupled upper level trough digging down the Sunshine State. Regardless, high temperatures will climb above 90 degrees with overnight lows generally in the lower 80s.
108 AM EDT Tue Jul 25 2017 A weak cold front will slide southeast through the area tonight before stalling over the Carolinas Tuesday into Wednesday. High pressure builds north of the region behind the front bringing a return to more seasonal temperatures later tonight through mid or late week.
311 AM EDT Tue Jul 25 2017 Cool and cloudy conditions can be expected today through tonight, as low pressure completes its swing through the region, along with patchy drizzle and spotty light showers. High pressure Wednesday will allow the clouds to break up.
357 AM CDT Tue Jul 25 2017 A break in storm activity today as an upper level ridge begins to shift over the Panhandles. This dry period will be short lived as the high pressure will retrograde back west over the four corners later tonight into Wednesday, returning northwest flow to the area. With this cold front, 850 temps drop about 5-10 degrees C over 24 hours depending on which model you follow. By the end of the weekend the ridge may shift far enough east that a brief cool down could be in play for the Panhandles.
313 AM MDT Tue Jul 25 2017 09Z vapor shows an upper low over eastern Saskatchewan/western Manitoba, a small wave moving through northwestern South Dakota, and southwest flow across the forecast area.
538 AM CDT Tue Jul 25 2017 Quiet weather expected in the short term, as high pressure drifts further east across the Great Lakes. Dew points will start creeping upward, the start of a warming trend as the upper ridge over the southern Plains starts to edge eastward. Temperatures still look to reach the upper 80s/lower 90s on Wednesday ahead of the cold front to our northwest.
227 AM EDT Tue Jul 25 2017 High pressure will provide dry weather through at least Wednesday. A Cold front may produce some storms late in the work week. High pressure builds back in for the weekend with improving weather expected. The cold frontal boundary continues to push southeastward and will progress far enough south to allow high pressure to build down from the Great Lakes. This will allow us to enjoy the first of what should be back-to-back days that remain dry, along with cooler temperatures and a drier airmass. Models have an upper ridge in the west and upper trough in the east. Canadian high pressure with cooler and drier air will dominate into Wednesday, continuing a respite from the heat and humidity of typical summer.
GOES 16 data shows a connection of the low cloud deck southward to around Randolph AFB, so have updated to accelerate mvfr cig timing for all the I-35 sites. Overnight lows will generally range from the low to mid 70s. Clouds will increase overnight mainly east and south of Interstate 35 as dewpoints remain in the lower 70s. The shear axis responsible for the development of storms earlier is expected to push farther to the east of South Central Texas by Tuesday while the subtropical upper level ridge builds into the southern Plains.
/Issued 230 AM CDT Tue Jul 25 2017/ The upper ridge will remain firmly entrenched across the southern Plains. with high temperatures perhaps a degree or two warmer than today. A pattern change will ensue going into late this week as the upper ridge retrogrades and northwesterly flow develops across the region.
420 AM EDT Tue Jul 25 2017 High pressure will extend across the area through Wednesday.
135 AM EDT Tue Jul 25 2017 High pressure will build into the region tonight and will extend across the area into Wednesday.
As far as the general weather is concerned, the upper level ridge will be building back over us during the short term, which will make the issue of excessive heat a greater concern again. With dewpoints remaining on the high side, many areas will be topping 105 degree heat index values tomorrow, and again on Wednesday.
Upper level ridging will keep sunny skies and warmer temperatures over the region today, except for some isolated morning low clouds near the coast.
Broad area of high pressure over South Florida will continue to dominate the weather pattern for the remainder of this week. Tonight low temperatures will remain around the low 60s across the area. High pressure weakens Christmas Eve as a front makes its way across the panhandle.
Models currently place the heaviest snow along and north of the Missouri River this morning and shifts the heaviest snow to the south this afternoon as the low moves to the east.
In short, for these valley locations below 2500 feet, temperatures were a couple degrees warmer than anticipated overnight into this morning, and post frontal showers were lesser in both coverage and intensity than model guidance anticipated. Thus, amounts were on the lower end of the forecast realm of possibility at these lower elevations, while the forecast at higher elevations verified better. Showers will be most numerous over the higher terrain, especially the Cascades and Siskiyous. We expect clouds and showers to diminish in coverage this evening and this is likely to lead to valley LIFR with freezing fog overnight into Thursday morning.
A strong cold front will sweep across the CWA later this evening with upslope snow developing and spreading across the CWA later tonight into Thursday morning.
138 PM MST Wed Dec 20 2017 Latest upper air analysis shows almost zonal flow over the High Plains ahead of a trough moving onto the West Coast. Over the Southern Plains very dry air was trailing the closed upper level trough. Today will be warmer than yesterday as WAA brings unseasonably warm air over the forecast area.
1127 AM CST Wed Dec 20 2017 VFR conditions expected this afternoon as high pressure settles over West Texas. The high will move east tonight and a weak onshore flow will develop. An approaching warm front on Thursday will likely lower visibility and ceilings as early as Thursday morning along the coast and gradually lower over inland TAF sites through the day.
Satellite showing upper low moving across the region this morning. Temperatures much colder than past few days as a strong cold front moved through yesterday evening. Upper level ridge building over the area tonight into Thursday with partly cloudy skies and colder temps.
A low pressure system and associated precipitation will begin to approach Thursday night bringing the beginning of an unsettled pattern to the region. With the combination of WAA and increase in cloud cover went close to the warmer guidance values and away from the superblend.
Trough axis will pass overhead this evening and clear things out. Strong cold front passing through sw Idaho at the moment. Scattered snow showers in southern Oregon this evening as upper low comes in from the coast. Otherwise, clearing and colder tonight with lows zero to 15 in the mountains, to near 20 in the lower southern valleys.
Soundings still indicate a brief window over northwest IA late tonight and early Thursday morning where a little light freezing drizzle will be possible but at this time not expecting any major problems. A very small chance that some patchy very light freezing drizzle could occur as far north as Interstate 90 but not a good enough chance to mention. With the main component of the low and mid level frontal forcing cold air advection expect the band to be on the lighter side.
It seems that the 12Z NAM run was a bit of an outlier as the 12Z GFS as well as the high resolution runs keep the heaviest accumulations over our area from just south of Devils Lake into the central Red River Valley. while an upper ridge exists over the northern High Plains. Skies clear for Thursday while cold high pressure and light winds settle into the area.
As the high resolution models are fairly consistent, will keep the rest of the advisory as it is.
With the trough dropping into the northern Plains and the southern stream trough pushing into the southern/central Plains, the strongest forcing continues to trend towards splitting around the forecast area. Precipitation type will be mainly light snow, with a brief window late tonight into Thursday morning where lack of ice crystals in the cloud layer may allow for some light freezing rain to mix with the now, mainly in northwest Iowa. Cold northerly flow aloft settles into the region through the upcoming weekend, with a large upper low sitting over Hudson Bay, tapping into some frigid temperatures.
/issued 451 AM CST Wed Dec 20 2017/ Moderate to heavy rainfall is coming to an end this morning as an area of low pressure located over north Mississippi gradually shifts eastward. It will be a bit cooler across the area tonight with lows mainly in the low to mid 40s. In the upper levels models indicate that a cutoff low over the western CONUS will phase with a longwave trough dropping out of Canada, leading to an impressive jet streak with the favorable right entrance region located over the Midsouth.
and Thursday Other than some flurries across the far north with assistance from Lake Superior, the weather will be relatively quiet today as ridging slides east through the western Great Lakes region. A developing low pressure system developing across the western Plains will slowly move east tonight and Thursday, bringing snow to the region. However models continue to have issues resolving the amount and placement of the highest snowfall amounts with model soundings showing a wedge of dry air that would limit snowfall accumulations across the region and introduce some freezing drizzle at times.
1225 PM EST Wed Dec 20 2017 Low pressure will track eastward across the region this afternoon, followed by a back door front, bringing showers and isolated thunderstorms.
1116 AM CST Wed Dec 20 2017 Water vapor imagery was depicting near zonal flow prevailing over the northern tier of the CONUS with an upstream closed low moving ashore into the Pacific NW. Thursday morning, light freezing drizzle will develop and expand southward over the northern CWA. For this afternoon and evening, models are in agreement the southward extent of the cold air advection push will be limited with the dividing between light freezing drizzle northwest/light drizzle southeast will run roughly from about Shelby Co IA to Jefferson Co NE.
As of 9Z, an area of low pressure is located over northeast Wyoming, with east to southeasterly flow over a good portion of this CWA. The period starts off with an upper level trough exiting to the east, with another beginning to dig over the Northern Plains. By the middle of the weekend, this trough will have dug all the way to the Gulf of Mexico and will encompass the central and eastern part of the country. Northwest flow will be dominant over the region until ridging begins to build at the very tail end of the period.
315 PM CST Wed Dec 20 2017 As a low pressure system center passes by well to our south, light rain over mainly the Pennyrile region of KY is expected to erode rapidly from the west during the remainder of the afternoon. The PAH forecast area will be under ridging aloft Thu as surface pressures begin to drop and southwesterly low level flow increases ahead of the next low pressure system. A warm advection flow pattern will set up across the lower MS/lower OH valley Fri.
1059 AM MST Wed Dec 20 2017 Zonal flow sits across the northern Plains this morning ahead of a trough/upper low now pushing across the Pacific Northwest into the northern Rockies. Colder air will push in on the backside of the low bringing gusty northwest winds and quick drop in temps.
An upper level trough currently over the northwestern part of the country will drop down the west coast and begin to move east through the period and turn the flow over Texas to the southwest by Thursday evening. High pressure at the surface will move to the east bringing moist low level air back to region. An upper level short wave trough will move through the pattern and bring a chance for rain Thursday night.
High pressure covers the rest of the region for much of the day.