Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
300 AM CST Sun Mar 7 2021 Upper level ridging and high pressure at the surface continue to dominate the weather across the central portion of the country. Winds will push to between 10 to perhaps 20 mph in central and NE MO, which coupled with the low humidity and dry fuels, will result in elevated fire danger in those areas. BSH Southwest upper level flow will remain atop the central portion of the country through much of the workweek as a deep upper trough slowly digs into the southwestern CONUS.
316 AM EST Sun Mar 7 2021 The cold front that brought the gloomy and cool day across that state is now to our south. High pressure will start out near Texas and Arkansas before heading toward the east coast and eventually out into the Atlantic through the work week.
An upper level trough extending along the eastern seaboard early this morning will push east of the area before daybreak, and lingering showers across the southeastern portion of the area will end. Cooler air was already filtering southward into the area, with temperatures in the upper 30s to mid 40s from the I-10 corridor northward. Sunny skies and breezy north to northeast winds are then expected today, with highs only in the low to mid 60s. Cold temperatures are expected tonight across the interior, with lows in the low to mid 30s, with patchy to areas of frost expected.
Low-level thicknesses support temps a few degrees warmer than Saturday, so will go on the warmer end of the model envelope with a range from the lower 50s in the Bluegrass to near 60 west of I-65. Tonight the high settles into Appalachia, with just a hint of return flow developing. Overall expect radiational cooling to win out, especially in the eastern valleys, but western sections could stay nearly 10 degrees warmer under a light SSE breeze.
/EC/ Prior discussion below: Tonight and tomorrow: High pressure will continue to build into the region, resulting in clear skies and dry weather.
1013 PM CST Sat Mar 6 2021 Surface and upper-level high pressure to maintain VFR conditions across the region overnight into Sunday. With dewpoints slightly lower than expected, this should also trend the forecast towards a slightly cooler result, so overnight lows tonight are a bit below NBM values. Most locations should be in the middle to upper 30s, but I would not be surprised to some our typical cold spots very close to freezing tonight.
115 AM MST Sun Mar 7 2021 Temperatures will continue to be 10 to 20 degrees above normal Sunday as this ridge continues to sit over the Plains. Another effect of this ridge sitting to the east of SE Wyoming and the Nebraska panhandle is the low humidities.
As the H85 thermal ridge expands across the area on Tue, maximum temperatures should respond with highs approaching 80 in some areas. The front may meander near the OK state line into Fri and Sat as a vigorous mid/upper trough emerges from the Southern Rockies bringing continued chances for wetting rains to the area over the weekend.
252 AM CST Sun Mar 7 2021 Pleasant weather is in store for today as another low amplitude ridge builds in over the forecast area.
320 AM EST Sun Mar 7 2021 Synopsis/Discussion/Marine - Warming trend and mostly dry through mid week - Wet toward the end of the week -- Warming trend and mostly dry through mid week -- High pressure over Michigan will provide plenty of sunshine today.
300 AM EST Sun Mar 7 2021 Cool and fair weather today as high pressure builds in from the west.
358 AM EST Sun Mar 7 2021 High pressure and a dry airmass will provide for mostly sunny and seasonable conditions today.
High pressure ridge extending from the Great Lakes to eastern Texas will keep VFR conditions at all terminals through the forecast period. /issued 347 PM CST Sat Mar 6 2021/ Tonight, upper level ridging will build over our area and rain chances will be low. South of Lake Pontchartrain, most locations should expect lows in the low to upper 40s. Sunday, ridging still continues to build over our area.
1030 PM MST Sat Mar 6 2021 An amplified ridge is sitting just to our east, extending from Texas into the central Canadian provinces. As the system moving through the northern Rockies continues to shift east, ridging will build back in over the Desert Southwest, placing western Colorado and eastern Utah under clear skies and southwest flow aloft.
1000 PM CST Sat Mar 6 2021 Warmer temperatures are on the way for Sunday along with stronger winds. The area of high pressure currently extending from western Ontario into the mid-Mississippi River Valley will work slowly off to the east tonight and Sunday. This will allow a cold front to emerge from the Rockies and tighten up the pressure gradient over the region for Sunday. These winds will bring in warmer air with highs expected to top out from the middle/upper 40s to the upper 50s. Wide and expansive ridging aloft is contributing to these above normal temperatures.
An ultra dry profile is shown in WV satellite and in model soundings due to deep subsidence on the downstream side of the upper level ridge. Thicker cirrus spilling through the upper level ridge overhead also helps support temperatures that are expected to settle into the 20s before midnight.
/issued 515 PM CST Sat Mar 6 2021/ Surface and upper-level high pressure to maintain VFR conditions across the region overnight into Sunday. With dewpoints slightly lower than expected, this should also trend the forecast towards a slightly cooler result, so overnight lows tonight are a bit below NBM values. Most locations should be in the middle to upper 30s, but I would not be surprised to some our typical cold spots very close to freezing tonight.
154 AM MST Sun Mar 7 2021 The forecast period starts out with a ridge over the Central High Plains and northwest flow aloft over the Tri-State area. Average high temperatures for this time of year generally range from the low to mid-50s.
High pressure in control of the weather across the Tennessee Valley this evening, resulting in benign weather conditions with a clear sky and light northerly flow. Expect temperatures to drop to near to just below the freezing mark across most areas by early Sunday morning, with lows in the upper 20s to lower 30s being common. The longwave trough that has settled over the eastern seaboard will push offshore into the Atlantic late this weekend as upper level ridging pushes in from the Southern Plains.
Our rain chances will remain scant for the next several days as high pressure remains the dominant weather feature, even as the high center drifts into the Atlantic.
At the upper levels, a broad ridge will build over much of the U. Highs will generally be a few degrees warmer tomorrow -- in the mid-50s to mid-60s -- as plentiful sunshine allows the airmass to modify.
High pressure is expected to continue across the area through early this week. Will lower dewpoints a bit as while there should be some increase (primarily southwest) as high pressure slowly progresses eastward, ample sunshine and at least some boundary layer mixing should limit this during the day.
Afternoon highs will be 2-4 degrees warmer than yesterday under these conditions. Overnight lows will also be 2-4 degrees warmer by early Mon morning.
519 AM CST Sun Mar 7 2021 High pressure will dominate over South Central Texas today and all terminals will be VFR through the day and evening. At the surface, high pressure was centered to the northeast of our CWA. Cooler, drier air has moved in behind a cold front with temperatures five to ten degrees lower and dewpoints around five degrees lower than 24 hours ago. Models are showing temperatures a bit cooler today than previous runs and we have adjusted down a bit from the latest NBM.
/issued 200 AM CST Sun Mar 7 2021/ Another unseasonably cool day despite the approach of mid-level ridging, but it will be warmer than the previous 24hrs across the wrn 1/4 of the CWFA. Otherwise the general forecast pattern Mon-Thu has not changed, sw flow aloft will strengthen each day with the lee trof and low-level thermal ridge amplifying. Models continue to diverge after Thu wrt the large closed upper low that will move e across AZ/NM. GFS still suggest convection may develop across the PB Thu evening on a retreating dryline/low-level jet, possibly Fri and Sat evenings depending on which solution verifies wrt passage of the upper low.
255 AM MST Sun Mar 7 2021 A weak mountain wave over the higher elevations, with some downslope wind spilling off the lower foothills, has kept these areas mild overnight. The flow aloft is decreasing with the mountaintop inversion also fading this morning, so the stronger winds in the higher elevations should be decreasing and it looks like this is beginning to happen. Our forecast was about 3-5 degrees warmer than yesterday. We nudged them down slightly, generally in line with the warmer GFS MOS guidance and HRRR. The upper level ridge axis is east of Colorado Monday with southwest flow aloft over the state.
301 AM MST Sun Mar 7 2021 A weak mountain wave over the higher elevations, with some downslope wind spilling off the lower foothills, has kept these areas mild overnight. The flow aloft is decreasing with the mountaintop inversion also fading this morning, so the stronger winds in the higher elevations should be decreasing and it looks like this is beginning to happen. Our forecast was about 3-5 degrees warmer than yesterday. We nudged them down slightly, generally in line with the warmer NAM MOS guidance and HRRR. The upper level ridge axis is east of Colorado Monday with southwest flow aloft over the state.
835 AM EST Sun Mar 7 2021 High pressure will build from the northwest Today. Subsidence under the ridge will yield sunny skies. So as the air passes across the waters, this cooler air will move in. An upper level trough extending along the eastern seaboard early this morning will push east of the area before daybreak, and lingering showers across the southeastern portion of the area will end. Cooler air was already filtering southward into the area, with temperatures in the upper 30s to mid 40s from the I-10 corridor northward. Sunny skies and breezy north to northeast winds are then expected today, with highs only in the low to mid 60s. Cold temperatures are expected tonight across the interior, with lows in the low to mid 30s, with patchy to areas of frost expected.
Our rain chances will remain scant for the next several days as high pressure remains the dominant weather feature, even as the high center drifts into the Atlantic. High pressure has settled over Middle Tennessee along with a very dry air mass.
Another very mild day is in store Monday with highs in the 60s, as an upper-level ridge remains dominant. The period begins with a large upper level low pressure area off the Pacific Northwest coast dropping south along the coast and then into the southwest us through the week. A couple short waves coming off of this upper low pressure area will affect our region until northwest flow takes over bringing cooler air into the region.
216 AM MST Sun Mar 7 2021 Current surface map shows elongated low across central North Dakota with cold front into northwest South Dakota/northeast Wyoming.
We have undercut blended guidance a bit to reflect this, and also included patchy freezing fog in the portions of the forecast area, as gradual modification of the airmass will support slightly higher nocturnal dewpoints ranging from the m-u 20s in the east to the lower 30s in the west. Although this will have little impact on the moisture content of the local airmass, it should allow highs to climb into the m-u 60s for all locations with the exception of the higher terrain of northeast AL/southern TN.
Positively tilted upper trough will move off the coast this afternoon. Although a robust short wave trough will move through the region, moisture will be quite limited. Strong pressure ridge will build southeast from the Tennessee Valley. Strongest advection in the Pee Dee as trough moves east. Expect temperatures a few degrees warmer than yesterday mainly across the CSRA.
Model forecasts continue to run a little cooler than what is actually being seen and will go a few degrees above guidance. High pressure, both aloft and on the surface will dominate through the period with dry conditions expected. The upper ridge will crest over the area on Monday with low level southerly flow strengthening underneath it just a bit. The result will be highs in the lower to mid 60s today with upper 60s to lower 70s expected on Monday.
605 AM EST Sun Mar 7 2021 Chilly high pressure will extend across the central Appalachians and southern mid Atlantic through Monday.
940 AM EST Sun Mar 7 2021 High pressure and a dry airmass will provide for mostly sunny and seasonable conditions today.
Warmer temps Early-Mid Week. 00z soundings from SGF, OUN, FWD, LZK and AMA showed very dry air in the low and mid levels. Southerly winds will be slightly higher tonight therefore low temps will likely only drop into the lower 40s, with the exception of valleys and lower elevations. A mid level ridge will be building into the area again we went closer to NBM 75th percentile for highs with readings a degree or two warmer than Today.
Given the NBM 75th percentile has been doing a fairly decent job of capturing the high temperatures over the last couple days, will stick with that prog for highs through Monday.
Today through Monday Weak ridging takes hold again on Sunday leading to another mild and dry day.
647 AM EST Sun Mar 7 2021 Aviation - Warming trend and mostly dry through mid week - Wet toward the end of the week -- Warming trend and mostly dry through mid week -- High pressure over Michigan will provide plenty of sunshine today.
A tight surface gradient out ahead of the trough will bring breezy conditions early in the day, but as the trough moves through and the gradient lessens, the strongest winds will slowly diminish from west to east through the day. Winds will become light, and it will be a cooler night with lows in the lower to mid 30s.
A large area of low pressure spinning off the Pacific Northwest will slide down the west coast over the next few days. As it does, this low will shoot out pieces of energy, or short waves, into the Northern Rockies.
At 09Z (3 AM), surface observation maps showed a ridge of high pressure extending from the Great Lakes into the lower Mississippi River Valley, and lee troughing remained in place over the High Plains. Mixing will also allow for another warm day with highs in the lows 70s for most locations this afternoon.
At the surface, a cold front (really more of a cool front) was located over central North Dakota early this morning. Today will generally be a bit cooler, but less cloud cover may mean that a few areas could see temperatures (especially across the south) a bit warmer than yesterday. Temperatures will rebound on Monday as broad low amplitude ridging builds in. Increasing cloud cover is also likely, as flow turns southwest aloft in advance of a deepening west coast trough.
The pre- frontal trough will see quite a bit of warm air along with a westerly fetch to the wind which will aid in warming. Temps should get even warmer than today, with a few spots in southeastern ND getting into the 60s. The upper flow starts to become more southwesterly by the end of the period, with a strong trough of low pressure developing in the lee of the Rockies. Ensemble guidance is in agreement on a shift from zonal flow aloft to southwesterly flow as an upper level trough begins to dig in over the western CONUS and push the upper level ridge, currently in place over the Plains, eastward.
320 AM MST Sun Mar 7 2021 Temperatures will continue to be 10 to 20 degrees above normal Sunday as this ridge continues to sit over the Plains. Another effect of this ridge sitting to the east of SE Wyoming and the Nebraska panhandle is the low humidities.
Tranquil weather conditions exist across the TN Valley this morning, provided by strong north-northwest flow aloft on the western side of an amplified trough over the Eastern CONUS. At the surface, a ridge axis extending southwestward from a high centered over the northern Great Lakes will continue to build southeastward into the region this morning. The north-northwest flow regime will slowly diminish today, as the trough begins to lift northeastward and a mid-level ridge shifts eastward across the Upper- MS Valley.
An area of low pressure to our northwest will result in breezy afternoon winds for much of the upcoming week along with cooler temperatures as the week progresses.
At the surface, high pressure was centered to the northeast of our CWA. Cooler, drier air has moved in behind a cold front with temperatures five to ten degrees lower and dewpoints around five degrees lower than 24 hours ago. Models are showing temperatures a bit cooler today than previous runs and we have adjusted down a bit from the latest NBM.
507 AM EST Sun Mar 7 2021 Low pressure will continue to move slowly east of the Maritimes today. High pressure will cross the region later tonight through Monday.
SHORT TERM (Now through Monday): Initially 500 mb ridging will prevail over the RGV, but this will be quickly replaced by a short wave moving over TX from NW Mex later today. After this short wave exits TX, 500 mb ridging will then build back into the RGV from the west. At the surface, the low level flow will become more onshore from the E-ESE throughout the short term which will allow for low level moisture to start rebounding steadily.
924 AM EST Sun Mar 7 2021 Dry high pressure will dominate the weather through the week along with plenty of daily sunshine. Low pressure will move farther away from the Southeast coast today as high pressure across the Great Lakes and Mississippi Valley shifts slowly eastward. Clear skies and light winds should create an unseasonably chilly night with lows likely falling below freezing for all but the beaches. Clear skies are expected on Monday as the high builds across the area during the afternoon. High pressure overhead Monday night for good radiational cooling down into the mid 30s.
645 AM EST Sun Mar 7 2021 Dry and colder than average weather is expected today under high pressure. Warmer temperatures are expected for the coming week under southwest flow. Mostly clear skies are expected through early this morning with the exception of some patchy clouds with a crossing trough. Have kept morning lows on the lower side of guidance, which results in around 10 degrees below seasonal average. Monday marks a pattern change as the Upper Ohio becomes wedged between troughing across the Great Lakes and the persistent high across the Southeast.
617 AM CST Sun Mar 7 2021 The cold front is now approaching the eastern third of third of the state and winds have turned westerly behind it as expected. At the surface, a cold front (really more of a cool front) was located over central North Dakota early this morning. Today will generally be a bit cooler, but less cloud cover may mean that a few areas could see temperatures (especially across the south) a bit warmer than yesterday. Temperatures will rebound on Monday as broad low amplitude ridging builds in. Increasing cloud cover is also likely, as flow turns southwest aloft in advance of a deepening west coast trough.
Boxell (Issued 347 AM CST Sun Mar 7 2021) Today and Tonight: Look for increasing southerly winds today as high pressure departs the area. Temperatures will get into the lower to mid 50s west of MSN and in the upper 40s to perhaps lower 50s in southeast WI this afternoon.
This should help keep temperatures well above freezing overnight despite the mostly clear skies.
733 AM EST Sun Mar 7 2021 High pressure will ridge into the North country through early Monday.
535 AM CST Sun Mar 7 2021 (Today and tonight) Lee trough will be developing today, with occasionally gusty south winds returning.
403 AM EST Sun Mar 7 2021 Dry and colder than average weather is expected today under high pressure. Warmer temperatures are expected for the coming week under southwest flow. Mostly clear skies are expected through early this morning with the exception of some patchy clouds with a crossing trough. Have kept morning lows on the lower side of guidance, which results in around 10 degrees below seasonal average. Monday marks a pattern change as the Upper Ohio becomes wedged between troughing across the Great Lakes and the persistent high across the Southeast.
High pressure centered over the Great Lakes will continue to expand over the area and will provide Central Alabama with dry conditions for the short term.
535 AM CST Sun Mar 7 2021 Upper level ridging and high pressure at the surface continue to dominate the weather across the central portion of the country. Winds will push to between 10 to perhaps 20 mph in central and NE MO, which coupled with the low humidity and dry fuels, will result in elevated fire danger in those areas. BSH Southwest upper level flow will remain atop the central portion of the country through much of the workweek as a deep upper trough slowly digs into the southwestern CONUS.
/issued 252 AM CST Sun Mar 7 2021/ Pleasant weather is in store for today as another low amplitude ridge builds in over the forecast area. The trend towards warmer nights will also continue with lows bottoming out in the upper 30s area-wide Monday morning. A large upper low/trough will dig southward along the West Coast the first half of the week before shifting more eastward the second half of the week.
Cronce (Issued 347 AM CST Sun Mar 7 2021) Today and Tonight: Look for increasing southerly winds today as high pressure departs the area. Temperatures will get into the lower to mid 50s west of MSN and in the upper 40s to perhaps lower 50s in southeast WI this afternoon.
Above normal temperatures will continue! Today into tonight: High pressure will continue to shift off to the east of the area, allowing winds to shift to the south and southeast. At the same time, low pressure will slide across Manitoba this morning to Hudson Bay by late this afternoon. Ahead of this feature, a warm front will slowly lift northward into at least southwest Wisconsin. A weak cold front will quickly move into the area from the west late in the evening and overnight. Temperatures will warm throughout the day as an upper-level ridge axis passes directly overhead this afternoon.
The highest gusts will be terminals closer to the Atlantic, but even inland and gulf terminals will likely see gusty conditions late morning through early evening. A slightly cooler airmass will follow in the wake of the FROPA, bringing increasing NE winds, cooler temps, and hazardous beach and marine conditions. Colder air advection will result in afternoon highs remaining in the low-mid 70s across much of SoFlo. For Monday, POPs drop to near zero, while winds become breezy from the NE in the afternoon as a robust high pressure system expands over the western Atlantic. Similar temperatures are expected compared to Sunday, with much of the area in the low-mid 70s during the afternoon.
409 AM PST Sun Mar 7 2021 Cool and unsettled weather will occur this week with increasing clouds, cooler temperatures, and gustier winds.
858 AM CST Sun Mar 7 2021 The cold front is now almost entirely through the forecast area, with only Oakes still reporting southwest winds. The cold front is now approaching the eastern third of third of the state and winds have turned westerly behind it as expected. At the surface, a cold front (really more of a cool front) was located over central North Dakota early this morning. Today will generally be a bit cooler, but less cloud cover may mean that a few areas could see temperatures (especially across the south) a bit warmer than yesterday. Temperatures will rebound on Monday as broad low amplitude ridging builds in. Increasing cloud cover is also likely, as flow turns southwest aloft in advance of a deepening west coast trough.
420 AM MST Sun Mar 7 2021 Temperatures will continue to be 10 to 20 degrees above normal Sunday as this ridge continues to sit over the Plains. Another effect of this ridge sitting to the east of SE Wyoming and the Nebraska panhandle is the low humidities.