Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
311 PM CDT Wed Mar 15 2017 High pressure ridge over the cwa bringing sunny skies to the cwa today. To the west of the ridge on the return flow, clouds were evident in the Plains and as far east as the western third of Iowa. Forecast focus on warmer temperatures with a slight chance of light rain or snow on Thursday. Tonight: High pressure ridge will gradually shift to the east allowing for the warm air advection overcast deck to our west also to push eastward. Forecast soundings indicate gradual top-down saturation but the dilemma is when the low levels saturate. Due to the low confidence if the low levels saturate enough, will keep slight pops for now and let later shifts monitor later model runs.
SHORT TERM (Tonight through Thursday Night):Fairly benign weather pattern expected during the short term as a weakening upper level ridge over the SW slides east into Texas Thursday.
353 PM EDT Wed Mar 15 2017 Weakening low pressure tracks slowly towards the Canadian Maritime Providences through Thursday.
Issued by National Weather Service Louisville KY 233 PM CDT Wed Mar 15 2017 An early afternoon analysis showed high pressure centered over Missouri, and extended across much of the Mississippi River Valley. Visible satellite imagery indicated clear skies prevailed over the region, and mid afternoon readings were in the low 30s under light and variable winds. For tonight, expect another hard freeze with temperatures dropping into the low/mid 20s, with upper teens expected across portions of southern Illinois, southwest Indiana, and southwest KY. On Thursday, a weak warm front will pass largely north of the area during the day Thursday.
230 PM CDT Wed Mar 15 2017 A warm front will move push through late this evening, ramping up warm air advection significantly. If this pans out some light freezing rain will be possible around midnight with surface temperatures still below freezing. Breezy westerly winds will develop tomorrow as a cold front swings through late morning west and early afternoon east. Even though we will likely be cloudy for the majority of the day, those westerly winds will mix down much warmer air aloft leading to temperatures in the 40s and 50s.
Unseasonably strong mid level ridging and warm low level temps were measured across the southwestern states this morning and this airmass will overspread the region over the coming days.
Quiet weather continues across the region this afternoon as ridging remains in place across the southwestern CONUS. Forecast concerns over the next several days are minimal, as ridging remains the dominant weather feature across the west.
241 PM CDT Wed Mar 15 2017 High pressure is expected to drift across the region tonight.
400 PM EDT Wed Mar 15 2017 High pressure will build into the area Thursday and move off to the east Thursday night.
Freezing temperatures are expected to last a few hours across most of Jackson County Mississippi away from the immediate coast before dawn Thursday, so a freeze warning is in place for that area.
Look for patchy fog tonight followed by cooler temperatures today, especially near the coast and across the North Bay, as a weak system pushes into northern California. No updates are planned at this time as cooler conditions are expected today.
Another round of rain is expected today before a cold front sweeps through this evening and allows a tapering off of precipitation.
The increasing cloud cover overnight, combined with the return of southeasterly surface winds, should keep temperatures warmer than last night.
520 PM EDT Wed Mar 15 2017 Low pressure will slowly lift northeast out of the region through Thursday.
241 PM MDT Wed Mar 15 2017 Upper ridge building over the region will lead to dry weather with above average temperatures through Thursday. The upper ridge will shift off to the east late Thursday with an upper trough and surface cool front creating breezy conditions and a chance of rain on Thursday night.
1126 AM MDT Wed Mar 15 2017 With an upper level ridge over the area today and tonight, the weather will remain dry and very warm.
329 PM EDT Wed Mar 15 2017 Low pressure will stall over northern Maine today then continue northeast of the region tonight and Thursday.
A fairly strong cold front is expected to push through the region overnight, that will allow snow levels to lower to pass levels. As for rainfall for the valleys tonight through the day tomorrow, north-central Idaho and northwestern Montana will once again see the higher amounts. 00" inches of rain, with the lower elevations such as Orofino on the lower end of the range. 75" of rain, again, the valleys are expected to be on the lower end.
However, it is also possible that the terminals will remain MVFR throught the the forecast period as prevailing East-Southeast winds continue to push Gulf moisture in to the lower levels of the atmosphere. Surface analysis shows a faily tight pressure gradient with high pressure over the Ozarks and lower pressure near El Paso.
Thanks to a sprawling high pressure ridge over the Mississippi Valley, a mostly sunny and cold winter's day is in process of unfolding across the Mid-State.
404 PM EDT Wed Mar 15 2017 An area of high pressure will continue to dominate the weather across the region through the end of the work week.
252 PM PDT Wed Mar 15 2017 Rain showers continue into the afternoon and evening across the region as warm moist air surges up ahead of a cold front. The cold front should be fully through the region by 4am Thursday morning as cold air pushes in behind of the front briefly.
The combination of a clear sky and this cold air will allow temperatures to plummett after sunset well below freezing -- eventually bottoming out into the mid teens to lower 20s across the Valley. A warmer day is expected as highs will peak in the 40s to lower 50s.
The lower few thousand feet may saturate up enough to produce mid to late morning SCT-BKN (VFR) ceilings.
The ECMWF has come more in line with the GFS in closing off a mid level cyclone deep into Mexico by the early weekend.
253 AM MST Wed Nov 30 2016 No change in the overall synoptic weather pattern over the last 24 hours w/ a large and vigorous low pressure system remaining nearly stationary over central Minnesota.
1148 PM CST Tue Nov 29 2016 Near-vertically stacked potent low pressure system continues to slowly move southeast across southern Minnesota this afternoon with a series of strong vort lobes rotating around the main low. Some moderation in temperatures is likely into the weekend ahead of the next developing western trough.
Will hang on to at least small POPs until around midday, when the low-level flow becomes westerly enough to dry out. Clouds will be slower to clear out as the upper trof axis doesn't swing through until later in the afternoon.
324 AM CST Wed Nov 30 2016 Dry and cool air will filter into the region today behind a departing upper trough and cold front. Nearly all areas should remain above freezing but a few rural locations may approach 32 degrees by sunrise Thursday. The weather pattern will remain active Thursday through the weekend as an upper trough deepens in the west. Initially the developing system will result in a return of low level moisture and warmer temperatures Thursday/Thursday night followed by increasing rain chances on the weekend.
308 AM CST Wed Nov 30 2016 Low pressure over the Great Lakes will produce some moderately gusty west winds today. Clouds rotating around the associated upper low will affect at least the northern cwfa. High pressure will begin to move in as the low pressure over the Great Lakes continues to shift east. Differences develop on how quickly the upper low will lift ene into the southern U.
High pressure then returns from Thursday through the upcoming weekend to produce dry and seasonably mild weather.
These conditions are favorable to help temperatures dip near or slightly below freezing Wednesday morning.
Weak high pressure aloft will prevail Wednesday night through Thursday.
440 AM EST Wed Nov 30 2016 Currently - A ridge axis extends from the North Atlantic to the Gulf of Mexico and is driving moderate to fresh east to southeast breezes across the Florida Keys and surrounding waters. The fast warm and moist flow is providing sufficient support for isolated low topped showers despite a fairly substantial isothermal layer beginning around 825 mb and ridging aloft. Temperatures remain in the mid to upper 70s with dew points edging upwards through the lower 70s. Forecast - The ridge to our north will exit east over the next couple of days leaving the Florida Keys in a rapidly flattening pressure field. Despite the relaxing surface flow, organized veering through the lower levels, increasing lower level moisture and an elevating stable layer justifies raising pops to mid to high chance.
1016 PM MST Tue Nov 29 2016 Northerly flow on the back side of upper midwest low pressure system will continue across CO with a lobe of energy exiting eastern CO this afternoon. with only spotty additional snowfall amounts of up to an inch across the higher mtns.
329 AM CST Wed Nov 30 2016 A strong cold front has cleared central and southeast Illinois to the east overnight, ushering much cooler but climatologically normal air into the area. A few short wave pivoting around this large low pressure system will keep a fair amount of low clouds around especially north of I-70 Thu and Fri, though light precipitation should stay north of CWA.
340 AM CST Wed Nov 30 2016 Wrap around moisture will remain with us for the next few days despite low pressure slowly filling and lifting to the northeast. Continued to mention Snow or Freezing Rain for portions of the Coteau tonight, however again intensity will be too low and it appears ground temperatures too warm for it to be a significant problem, though will have to monitor.
There is still a chance of light showers on Wednesday as low pressure tracks northeast into the eastern Great Lakes, but it appears more likely that most of this precipitation will edge east of area. Deep upper level circulation now centered over souther Minnesota this afternoon, with positive tilted longwave trough over the Eastern Rockies. This trough axis will become more neutral tilted over the Plains Tomorrow, making for a tough call with respect to rain chances over southeast Michigan with the tightening baroclinic/FGEN zone which looks to be residing in between the Central and Eastern Great Lakes.
300 AM CST Wed Nov 30 2016 Mid/upper level low pressure continues to spin over the upper Midwest as it slowly progresses eastward. This wave will track over portions of NE and IA as it will ultimately reinforce another shot of cooler air. The cooler temperatures and wrap around moisture has supported an expansive area of low to mid cloud cover, which is spreading southeastward this morning. Therefore highs today will struggle to reach the low to mid 40s. The low pressure system has kept the pressure gradient from relaxing over the plains so expect another windy day today as surface mixing begins. This along with the cooler air mass will support lows in the 20s with the coldest temperatures in central KS.
1220 AM EST Wed Nov 30 2016 Showers will spread across the region today ahead of an approaching cold front. Likewise, upper troughing starts to move farther eastward into the Great Lakes region with the frontal passage on Wednesday night, low level flow really fails to turn NW immediately.
1253 AM EST Wed Nov 30 2016 A warm front has pushed north of the Midlands tonight. A cold front approaching Wednesday will move through the forecast area Wednesday evening. Much above normal temperatures will lower behind the cold front over the weekend. A warm front has pushed north of the Midlands. Temperatures should remain nearly steady given dewpoints in the low to mid 60s. The models are in close agreement depicting the approaching cold front moving through the forecast area Wednesday evening. However, instability could become a little greater because of the favorable diurnal timing just ahead of the cold front with near record temperatures climbing to around 80 in some locations. Mixing associated with the front favors the higher minimum temperature guidance.
This is associated with a negative tilt upper trough with a narrow cold front producing this band of rain. Snow levels will be between 1500-2500 feet with the lowest values near the Canadian border and highest over SE Washington and the Lewiston area. Elsewhere with temperatures near to below freezing when precip starts. Then a cold front will bring light precip to KEAT/KMWH 11-16Z and then KGEG/KSFF/KCOE/KPUW 16-20Z with lowering CIGS and VSBYS expected.
1253 AM EST Wed Nov 30 2016 A warm front lifts north of the area this morning. A strong cold front pushes east this afternoon. Cooler high pressure to end the week.
Sfc cold front should eventually push thru the mid state by around 30/15Z. Sfc ridging influences along with a more zonal flow pattern aloft will progressive usher in drier conditions to the mid state from the west to the east, with a progression to eventually all terminals experiencing VFR conditions, with sfc winds generally westerly in the 10kt range, by 01/00Z.
332 AM EST Wed Nov 30 2016 Mild today with showers ahead of an approaching cold front, with much colder temperatures into the weekend. Gradually colder though the period as a mid level trough slowly moves across eastern Canada.
Clouds around FL100-FL150 will continue to develop and build towards the north and east ahead of a mid-level trough.
The stacked low pressure system over Minnesota will continue to weaken, but also drift across the Great Lakes by tonight. A trough will rotate around the low as it moves in, bringing more clouds and the chance for some light precipitation to southern Wisconsin. Plus, pavement temps will be above freezing this afternoon, so no concerns about slippery pavement.
459 AM EST Wed Nov 30 2016 A developing area of low pressure will move through the Gulf of Maine tonight into Thursday. In its wake, brief s/wv ridging wl occur acrs the CWA with little in the way of pcpn expected most of the day. 00z GFS is warmer than 00z NAM with temps aloft as was the case for yda's event. Most locations to the north of a Bridgewater-Greenville line look to rmn all snow with heavy snow expected late tonight into Thur mrng. Low pressure will continue to move to the northeast into the Maritimes Thursday Night. A trough of low pressure will remain over the region and keep skies mostly cloudy, especially in the north.
Some clearing will continue to push north this evening, then clouds should move back in later tonight as upper low pivots across the area. Air temperatures should be several degrees above freezing, thus expect little accumulation on area roads, bridges and sidewalks. Did not stray far from guidance for lows tonight, but leaned toward the cooler met guidance for highs on Wednesday due to expected cloud cover and precipitation.
The main feature is an upper level low which is located across Minnesota today. This will force the trough axis through the area and leave us under northwest flow aloft. Expect seasonably cool highs in the low to mid 40s. Highs again will generally remain in the low to mid 40s.
High pressure building over the region will maintain dry weather conditions and temperatures near to slightly below seasonal averages today. High pressure then returns from Thursday through the upcoming weekend to produce dry and seasonably mild weather.
A cold northerly flow over the area tonight will give way to weak high pressure on Wednesday.
402 AM EST Wed Nov 30 2016 An approaching cold front will cross the area this evening. Much above normal temperatures today will lower to near normal for Thursday behind the cold front.
Had a few reports of freezing mist southwest so added patchy freezing drizzle for this update for that area. Environment Canada radar networks and the US 88D radars show a very long fetch of moisture moving around the upper low along the warm conveyor belt from as far away as western Ontario.
Today Through Thursday Night 09z subjective surface analysis indicated the cold front extended from Blythville, to Hot Springs, to El Dorado.
348 AM EST Wed Nov 30 2016 A warm front lifts north of the area this morning. A strong cold front pushes east this afternoon. Cooler high pressure to end the week.
303 AM EST Wed Nov 30 2016 WV and IR imagery reveal shear max of interest positioned along the eastern flank of the broad trough centered over the central US. Cold front currently hung up along the Lake Michigan shoreline will release east as large scale support translates over Lower Michigan this aftn. Winds will then increase from the southwest this evening as cooler air begins to funnel over the lakes. There is still a chance of light showers on Wednesday as low pressure tracks northeast into the eastern Great Lakes, but it appears more likely that most of this precipitation will edge east of area.
1020 PM MST Tue Nov 29 2016 Closed low continues to support broad lift and strong ll winds over the region. Lingering snow will slowly end from west to east during the day Wednesday as the low pressure system moves ewd from the upper midwest into the Great Lakes.
326 AM CST Wed Nov 30 2016 Upper trough swinging across the plains this morning pushing a cold front south. As the trough moves east will have a brief flat ridge over the region. Later today an upper trough will move onto the NW coast moving across the Intermountain West on Thursday.
Looks like the warm front is now just moving out of our cwa and is heading into mid TN. However with the warm front progged to be out of our cwa overnight, the threat of svr wx should begin to weaken a little after midnight. The upper trough axis will push across by early afternoon ushering in the "cooler" air.
/Tonight through Wednesday/ Upper low that has been impacting the region over the last few days continues to spin across central MN tonight into Wednesday. It is fighting some drier air in the lower levels, so progression southward into the CWA is expected to be limited. By Wednesday evening, the majority of the precipitation is expected to be confined to the northeastern portions of the CWA closer to the main upper low with energy wobbling around the main system as it meanders into SRN WI.
1109 PM CST Tue Nov 29 2016 A cold front will move through Arkansas overnight. 51 Cold front currently from just north of Mena to near Mountain Home. Increased cloud cover over central and south sections with the cold front slower to move through the state. (ISSUED 551 PM CST Tue Nov 29 2016 ) Another cold front is entering northwest Arkansas at this time. This front will bring cooler and drier air with it. Current model trends keep this out of AR, some additionally showers and isolated storms are possible this afternoon to evening until the upper low pressure trough and cold front push through the region. Then cooler and drier conditions will be seen through the end of the week.
Some mid and high level clouds passing over the area as the upper level ridge over the region pulls off to the east. This is due to an cold front approaching coming onto the coast this evening. Clouds will increase overnight as a cold front arrives and then exits by midday Wednesday.
1151 PM CST Tue Nov 29 2016 A strong upper low over west-central Minnesota this afternoon, will traverse slowly northeastward over the Upper Mississippi Valley Wednesday, reaching the Upper Great Lakes and southeastern Canada by Thursday. Several vort lobes will be rotating around this parent upper low over the next couple of days, which will maintain a supply of cooler, more seasonal air across the forecast area. Cannot rule out a flurry or two tonight over the northern/northeastern part of Kansas with 850-500 layer moistening (associated with a transient mid-level trof passage), although an increase in cloud cover is the more likely scenario.
416 AM EST Wed Nov 30 2016 A warm front lifts north of the area this morning. A strong cold front pushes east this afternoon. Cooler high pressure to end the week. A low pressure system moves east across the Great Lakes region this morning. An associated warm front lifts north producing widespread showers and isolated thunderstorms this morning. A cold front extends south from the low, and is expected to reach the OH river by 18Z. This cold front will bring an increase in intensity of the showers. Much cooler weather is expected for the end of the work week with slightly below normal temperatures. Most of the area will remain dry, but in the NW flow and with upper trough swinging through, it's possible that the mountains see some light snow showers.
313 AM CST Wed Nov 30 2016 WV imagery this morning was showing a deep upper trof over the cntrl conus along with a tight circulation/sfc reflection centered over the Upper Midwest. Snow activity all in part to potent vort max rounding the backside of the upper level low.
1147 PM CST Tue Nov 29 2016 A cold front is moving through southwestern Louisiana at this time. Convection should eventually end from west to east with the passage of an approaching cold front. South of the front, temperatures in the lower/mid 80s with dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s. After the cold front passage, cooler and drier air will prevail across the region. Cooler than normal temperatures expected for Wednesday night into the weekend.
The upper level low pressure system that has remained relatively stationary over the past 24 to 36 hours bringing record snows to central ND will begin to move east tonight and be centered over western Wisconsin by 18Z Wednesday. Where temps stay closer to freezing the light snow and or drizzle will linger. Therefore, some low PoPs overnight Wednesday into Thursday morning on the backside of the system remain reasonable but decreasing from west to east as the low pulls away. Therefore, have continued with freezing drizzle mention (temperatures upper 20s/around 30) for this time period as low level moisture should remain sufficient until later in the day on Thursday. Some residual moisture could linger across northern Minnesota through the end of the week but as the main low finally pulls away, high pressure will eventually build into the central Plains.
337 AM CST Wed Nov 30 2016 A line of showers and thunderstorms continues to move slowly eastward across the forecast area this morning ahead of a cold front. Expect a diminishing threat for severe weather after sunrise as the low level jet eases and the storms enter a more stable airmass. The recent rain and improved soil moisture may limit most significant cooling, but would not be surprised a good portion of the area at or a few degrees above the freezing mark by early Thursday morning. As the upper trough moves off to the north and east, broad ridging and/or near zonal flow will move into the region as well as high pressure at the surface.
Otherwise, dry weather is anticipated through Thursday as the cntrl states trof translates eastward.
331 AM CST Wed Nov 30 2016 Primary forecast challenge for today and tonight continues to be precipitation type with a mix of very light rain, drizzle or freezing drizzle and snow the most likely scenario for this morning. The weakening deformation zone remains west of the forecast area and is weakening rather than pulling eastward as the low moves into the GTLKS region. Current wet bulbs are warm enough that most precipitation should fall as rain as snow falls through the warmer near surface layer and melts. transitioning to a very light freezing drizzle or snow as surface temperatures cool a degree or two by evening. Overnight expect mainly freezing drizzle by midnight unless the near surface layer dries out enough to end precipitation.
341 AM EST Wed Nov 30 2016 Low pressure tracks slowly in the Great Lakes states through tonight. pushing its associated cold front across the Mid Atlantic region.