Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
525 AM MDT Wed Mar 15 2017 Early morning WV imagery and RAP upper level analysis show steep NW flow over our CWA between building ridge in the western US and large scale trough across the eastern US.
Due to the subfreezing surface temperatures, a quick 1/2 inch to inch of snow accumulation is possible underneath these bands over the nest couple of hours. Temperatures will struggle to climb above the 35 to 40 degree mark in most of the Valley -- with above freezing temperatures not expected until early afternoon. Chattanooga Airport, TN 41 24 53 34 / 20 0 0 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 38 20 48 31 / 20 0 0 10 Oak Ridge, TN 40 21 49 32 / 20 0 0 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 33 16 45 27 / 20 0 0 10 NC.
633 AM CDT Wed Mar 15 2017 A weak backdoor cold front has caused winds to stay east/northeast overnight. Isentropic ascent above this cooler airmass in the lowest few thousand feet is causing some VFR cigs across eastern TX; these clouds should linger throughout most of the day. Return flow will begin in earnest on Thursday with a developing lee trough across the Central High Plains. Low clouds and patchy drizzle will overspread the area Thursday as the low levels moisten up.
1125 AM CDT Wed Mar 15 2017 Deep upper low is situated over the Ohio Valley into the eastern Great Lakes with strong nw flow aloft over the Plains. At the surface, high pressure is centered over IA and extends through the Mississippi Valley. Return flow will slowly increase over the area into Thu which will provide some warmer temps. This high will quickly push east and by Sat night we will be back in return flow. The low clouds will linger into the morning hours on Thursday.
1118 AM CDT Wed Mar 15 2017 Thanks to a sprawling high pressure ridge over the Mississippi Valley, a mostly sunny and cold winter's day is in process of unfolding across the Mid-State.
the light northeasterly winds should become more easterly and then southeast this afternoon once the center of high pressure exits off to the east southeast. The result of these conditions should be a little warmer afternoon temperatures for Northeast Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas. This will aid in the transport of low level moisture beginning to lift back into the CWA which will help to keep warmer overnight low temps compared to the past couple of nights.
Resulting warm air advection will bring about warmer temperatures for this afternoon, although considerable cloudiness and existing snow cover will temper the warming potential. With resulting midlevel warm air advection/isentropic lift, it is possible that there could be a brief period of mixed precipitation - with thermal profiles suggesting mainly freezing rain/sleet - over portions of southwestern MN and northwest Iowa after 06Z. Warm air advection regime continues into Thursday, with ridging building aloft and southerly surface winds. Will leave isolated pops in the highway 14 corridor.
Area remains under NW flow as the upper low over the nern U. At the sfc, the ridge currently centered over srn IA will build swd today. The ridge will quickly build SE this evening and overnight as the upper ridge builds into the area. Therefore, expect temps tonight to be somewhat warmer across the CWA. Still have temps dropping into the upper 20s across wrn portions of the CWA, but this is still around 5 degrees warmer than MOS. As for temps today, have generally trended at or just above the warmer MOS across the area. Low level moisture will be on the increase as a weak warm front lifts northward through the overnight hours.
Most models suggests very light pcpn in the form of freezing rain or snow. An area of low pressure will cross southern Canada on Thursday with warm southerly flow into South Dakota. Winds will shift to the northwest behind the passage of a cold front Thursday night. Light showers will be possible along the cold front.
Precipitation type is mainly light sleet or light snow, with light freezing rain on the western edge. The upper ridge will begin to build eastward into the Central Plains, and bring much warmer 850 mb temperatures eastward across the forecast area. The low level wind component will dictate highs. The upper ridge becomes fairly zonal from the Plains, westward to the West Coast. Upper level ridging will continue to dominate the weather overall the next several days across the region.
Otherwise, we are on track for a warmer day than yesterday. The region continues to be under the influence of a building upper level ridge. The challenge in the forecast for today will be the high temperatures. Daytime highs on Thursday will be a little warmer than on Wednesday.
NAM profiles support mainly a brief period where saturation and lift coincide to support rain with surface temperatures around/just below freezing. Most models suggests very light pcpn in the form of freezing rain or snow. An area of low pressure will cross southern Canada on Thursday with warm southerly flow into South Dakota. Winds will shift to the northwest behind the passage of a cold front Thursday night. Light showers will be possible along the cold front.
Canadian high pressure will settle over the area tonight providing another very cold night with a hard freeze expected.
High pressure aloft will move east of the area today. A weak cold front will move through northern Utah tonight into Thursday morning.
628 AM CDT Wed Mar 15 2017 Deep upper low is situated over the Ohio Valley into the eastern Great Lakes with strong nw flow aloft over the Plains. At the surface, high pressure is centered over IA and extends through the Mississippi Valley. Return flow will slowly increase over the area into Thu which will provide some warmer temps. This high will quickly push east and by Sat night we will be back in return flow.
A slight moderation in temperatures will occur by this afternoon as the high shifts to the east and winds switch around from the south although a stream of mid-level clouds from the northwest will cut back on full warming potential. After a light freeze tonight (possibly another hard freeze across central and northern MO), warm air advection will really get underway on Thursday with temperatures rapidly rising into the lower 60s across most of the region.
Upper level trough approaching the Pacific Northwest coast today with moisture increasing ahead of an approaching cold front. Satellite showing large upper level trough near 140 W and 40 N moving slowly westward. Mountains will see the majority of precipitation however, the valley should see showers this evening with the cold frontal passage lingering through Thursday afternoon. The Boise River at Glenwood Bridge will remain in minor flood until further notice.
Look for patchy fog tonight followed by cooler temperatures today, especially near the coast and across the North Bay, as a weak system pushes into northern California.
730 AM EDT Wed Mar 15 2017 Intense low pressure off the New England coast coupled with an area of high pressure over the mid Mississippi Valley will create blustery and chilly conditions across central NC today.
High pressure aloft will decreasing mid and high level cloudiness by this aftn. Upper level ridging remains over the Rocky Mountains today with moderate northwesterly flow aloft over northeast Colorado. A warm and dry airmass is in place over the region with the upper level ridge axis forecast to remain over the Utah/Colorado border through this afternoon. Very little in the way of sky cover is expected due to the proximity of the ridge axis. Very warm and dry conditions will continue on Thursday under the influence of a flattening ridge aloft with dry westerly flow. A broad area of low pressure builds at the surface in Nebraska throughout the day, with a pressure gradient favoring a west- northwest wind direction across the Plains.
Fairly strong high pressure builds into the area over the next 24hrs. Expect temperatures to be at or just below freezing for at least two hours for outlying rural areas toward sunrise in these locations.
Area wide, morning lows will be the low 20s with a couple of teens on the Cumberland Plateau.
Under clear skies, lows will dip back down into the low/mid 20s tonight. That will still be about 10 degrees below seasonal norms but warmer than the past few days.
625 PM CDT Thu Mar 30 2017 Low clouds, drizzle, and light rain on the west side of an upper low over southern MO will gradually shift east during this time. Once the clouds clear, Friday should be seasonably cool with a northeast winds as high pressure moves into the Midwest. is expected to close off and slow as it moves into AZ/NM Fri night with a downstream upper level ridge moving over our area. The weather looks quiet during this time and warmer.
951 PM MST Thu Mar 30 2017 A strong low pressure system will produce windy conditions this evening along with much cooler temperatures Friday.
722 PM EDT Thu Mar 30 2017 Showers and thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening as a low pressure system approaches from the Southern Plains. Showers will taper off from west to east Friday as the low departs.
Dry weather is otherwise expected on Friday as high pressure centered over southern Canada ridges southward. With the passage of the front and cooler air filtering in, high temperatures on Friday should average in the upper 60s to around 70. Definitely cooler Friday night with lows cooling into the mid 40s.
1215 AM EDT Fri Mar 31 2017 Showers are expected through tonight with crossing low pressure.
Vertically-stacked low pressure system pushed across the KS/MO border this afternoon, with showers rapidly dissipating as the attendant synoptic lift likewise waned. A northerly fetch will persist in the wake of the low through tonight, which will aid in keeping low stratus clouds in place well into tomorrow and keep high temperatures slightly below normal for this time of year. Surface ridging builds over central Kansas overnight with winds decreasing throughout the afternoon and evening today. Despite the continuing overcast skies, fog may develop close to the ridge axis (primarily west of Manhattan) owing to the recent 2-4 inches of rain that fell over the region over the last 48 hours, helping to recharge the sub-surface soil moisture. Northeasterly flow off the departing ridge on Friday will not bode well for clearing out clouds quickly tomorrow.
Mid evening surface map shows 1000 mb low pressure over central IL nw of Decatur. The upper level low tracks from east central MO into sw Indiana by sunrise Friday. With the primary instability axis shifting well to the east into the Ohio River Valley, do not think any widespread thunder will occur with the precip on the back side of the low. Temperatures will cool on the back side of the low.
948 PM EDT Thu Mar 30 2017 High pressure will crest over Quebec overnight and then move east Friday.
A lee trough across south central Colorado doesn't move much throughout tonight as pressure falls continue across western Colorado as the potent storm continues to approach the Four Courners region. The upslope flow should keep skies mostly cloudy to cloudy, and there is enough cool air east and northeast of the state that temperatures will be 15-20 degrees cooler on Friday compared to Thursday.
1037 PM CDT Thu Mar 30 2017 High pressure ridging down into the region is bringing clr skies. light winds with dew points in the low to mid 50s.
/issued 326 PM CDT Thu Mar 30 2017/ Quiet weather across the forecast area this afternoon and much warmer compared to yesterday thanks to mostly clear skies and a decent downslope wind, mainly across the southern third of the forecast area. Have opted to lean towards the latter two models which means that we should see temps lean towards the warmer guidance for locations on the Caprock thanks to the west wind remaining in place. Even with the uncertainty in how surface conditions will evolve, temperatures will be a few degrees warmer tomorrow than today as warmer air mixes in from the southwest. Lee trough will also strengthen through the day as flow aloft becomes increasingly southeast ahead of the next storm system that moves west from the Pacific Northwest tonight into tomorrow.
712 PM EDT Thu Mar 30 2017 Wrapped-up low pressure will bring rain showers to the upper Ohio Valley through Friday. Rain showers will continue early Friday as the upper low moves overhead.
946 PM EDT Thu Mar 30 2017 High pressure will crest over Quebec overnight and then move east Friday.
1014 PM EDT Thu Mar 30 2017 Low pressure over Indiana will track across northern Ohio on Friday. A warm front will push northeast ahead of the low this evening with the front occluding over the area later tonight. The low will move east of the area by Friday night.
1200 AM EDT Fri Mar 31 2017 High pressure will crest over Quebec overnight and then move east Friday.
733 PM EDT Thu Mar 30 2017 Warm front pushing northeast across Central Pennsylvania bringing scattered showers and some isolated thunderstorms this evening and overnight. The associated low pressure system will slide east across the Mid-Atlantic Friday and Friday night bringing more rain to the area.
High pressure ridging down into the region is bringing clr skies. light winds with dew points in the low to mid 50s.
The high-res models resume its eastward movement by 06z as the upper low moves east. Some rain showers have been pivoting southward on the back side of the low. The upper low will track east across southern Indiana on Friday, which may result in lingering showers much of the day in southwest Indiana. Utilized the 12km NAM-WRF/CMCnh as base templates for dry slot and lingering showers around the upper low. I would not be surprised if there was an isolated hail report (less than one quarter inch) with the passage of the upper low in the vicinity early Friday morning.
A strong low pressure system will move across the TAF sites tonight. The low clouds will slowly pull out but the mid to high clouds may hang over the area for much of the day.
A Pacific storm system will bring strong gusty winds to the area tonight into Friday, along with a slight chance of showers on Friday and much cooler temperature.
836 PM MDT Thu Mar 30 2017 Main upper low across the desert southwest will continue to slide eastward overnight.
Cooler drier air is spilling in from the West only a few showers the isolated thunderstorms remain near the Tennessee River and Alabama state line. Cooler air will filter in overnight with lows bottoming out around 50 degrees. The aforementioned upper level low will lift northeast of our area by late Friday morning.
Deep layered ridging remains entrenched across the area, but has shifted east into the Western North Atlantic.
1105 PM CDT Thu Mar 30 2017 Quiet but cloudy weather is expected tonight as a ridge of high pressure prevails across the region. Low level moisture progs suggest the low stratus will remain in place overnight, with slow clearing on Friday. Low temps tonight should be in the mid 30s, with highs on Friday a little warmer in the mid 50s. The upper trough across the west coast will continue to deepen into a closed low as it moves into the 4 corners region tomorrow.
1042 PM EDT Thu Mar 30 2017 A warm front will lift north of the forecast area tonight ahead of an approaching cold front. The cold front will pass through the area during midday Friday. High pressure will dominate over the weekend.
Clouds will be on the increase overnight and into early Friday as a cold front and associated thunderstorms close in on the region. A cold front will move across the region during the day on Friday, bringing a westerly wind shift and a chance of showers and perhaps a thunderstorm or two. A cold front will move over the waters late tonight into Friday, bringing scattered marine showers and thunderstorms. High pressure will build into the region late Friday into the weekend, with pleasant boating conditions.
Low clouds remain persistent across NE OK and NW AR tonight, with ceilings in the low-end VFR in OK and MVFR in AR.
648 PM CDT Thu Mar 30 2017 Closed upper low moving through the area currently will continue to influence our weather through the night and into tomorrow morning.
1129 PM CDT Thu Mar 30 2017 Closed upper low moving through the area currently will continue to influence our weather through the night and into tomorrow morning.
1128 PM CDT Thu Mar 30 2017 Tonight-Friday: Upper low will continue to drift east tonight. Given light winds as ridge move into area and copious soil moisture, think there is a good chance for radiational fog later tonight where skies clear.
/issued 352 PM CDT Thu Mar 30 2017/ (Tonight and Friday) It will be warmer tonight with south winds of 10 to 15 mph bringing increase atmospheric mixing.
532 PM MDT Thu Mar 30 2017 Current surface analysis shows low pressure over southern SK, with cold front trailing southwest into the Pacific NW. Upper level analysis shows slow moving low across western MO, with next trough across the western states. West-southwest flow ahead of the trough has brought increasing clouds and now a few showers across northeast WY.
636 PM CDT Thu Mar 30 2017 Tonight-Friday: Upper low will continue to drift east tonight. Given light winds as ridge move into area and copious soil moisture, think there is a good chance for radiational fog later tonight where skies clear.
Regional radar imagery shows the line of showers and thunderstorms have exited to the east of the forecast area, though additional isolated to scattered showers and storms are developing in a narrow band along the cold front across northeastern and central portions of MS. Isolated to scattered rain showers in the wake of the line of thunderstorms and along a weak cold front approaching the region from the northwest will linger through this evening, and then finally move east of the forecast are by late tonight as the front passes through.
then the possibility of MVFR visibility restrictions could set in as patchy fog develops over the saturated warm moist ground with cooler air just above. Rua Behind the departing frontal boundary, a cooler and drier air mass will move in for tonight.
18Z surface data has low pressure near KSTL. A warm front extended from the low into central Indiana.
1039 PM MDT Thu Mar 30 2017 Current surface analysis shows low pressure over southern SK, with cold front trailing southwest into the Pacific NW. Upper level analysis shows slow moving low across western MO, with next trough across the western states. West-southwest flow ahead of the trough has brought increasing clouds and now a few showers across northeast WY.
An upper low will slowly drift east along the Utah Arizona border tonight through Friday.
Wrap-around moisture associated with departing upper level low will continue to result in widespread low clouds across NE OK and NW AR, with MVFR ceilings common. The return of sunshine will bring much warmer temperatures Friday.
But overnight, with the exception of maintained SE flow at LRD, cooler temps inland should turn winds more W-SW-ly before becoming southerly Friday morning. A clear, quiet and cool night is on tap tonight as weak ridging aloft briefly dominates across the area. A weak to moderate onshore flow is expected to return overnight tonight and strengthen to moderate, to occasionally strong, levels Friday as the high pressure moves east of the area and low pressure deepens across West TX.
1153 PM CDT Thu Mar 30 2017 For the 31/06Z TAF period, VFR conditions will dominate with SKC conditions this period as cooler and drier air mass continues to filter into the region behind our recent cold front. /issued 933 PM CDT Thu Mar 30 2017/ A cooler airmass ushered in by a cold front early this morning, coupled with clear skies and light and variable winds have resulted in cooler temperatures than originally forecasted.
816 PM EDT Thu Mar 30 2017 A warm front will lift north of the forecast area tonight ahead of an approaching cold front. The cold front will pass through the area during midday Friday. High pressure will dominate over the weekend.
The mid and upper level moisture will increase steadily overnight, but by the time the low level moisture increases in the morning, significantly drier mid and upper level air will be advecting in above it. Winds will veer to the northwest and decrease Friday night behind a cold front.
702 PM MDT Thu Mar 30 2017 Deep upper level low will push into the Four Corners late tonight and Friday. Warm conditions ahead of the low will keep snow levels up above the 9k mark with levels dropping later tonight as cold air wraps around the low and infiltrates the region.
Additional showers and thunderstorms are likely overnight as the front and main upper trough move through.
Winds will decrease Friday afternoon with a warming trend for the upcoming weekend as high pressure rebuilds over the region. The upper low and associated cold front that moved across the region earlier today brought localized showers and colder temperatures to the region. Temperatures finished off the day anywhere from 5 to 15 degrees cooler than yesterday. Winds along the coast have subsided below advisory level however models continue to indicate strong 925 mb winds will ramp up overnight impacting the higher elevation terrain across the forecast area as high pressure builds in over the Eastern Pacific. High pressure will continue to build in over the Eastern Pacific Friday as the upper low shifts east.
Strong southwest winds will continue through late tonight as a strong cold front moves through Arizona. This cold front will be associated with rain and snow showers, along with a few thunderstorms.
625 PM CDT Thu Mar 30 2017 Updated for 00Z aviation discussion 00Z TAF discussion: A cold front will move from west to east through central and eastern portions of the region tonight and should trigger isolated showers and perhaps even a few storms across most sites (except for GLH) through this evening. This has stabilized our atmosphere and failed to allow sufficient heating and instability to be in place ahead of an approaching cold front. This cold front is moving across the western part of the forecast area this afternoon. As today's weather system pushes off to the north and east, upper ridging will build in for tomorrow. Highs tomorrow will reach the lower 80s in the north and into the mid to upper 70s elsewhere.
/issued 302 PM EDT Thu Mar 30 2017/ High pressure continues to keep the weather dry today and tonight. however, as a cold front approaches, the high is being pushed eastward, and the pressure gradient across the region is increasing.
A Pacific storm system will bring strong gusty winds to the area tonight into Friday, along with a few showers Friday morning and much cooler temperatures.
1114 PM EDT Thu Mar 30 2017 A warm front will lift north of the forecast area tonight ahead of an approaching cold front. The cold front will pass through the area during midday Friday. High pressure will dominate over the weekend.
A powerful low pressure trough moving across the Great Basin brought severe winds to the mountains and deserts this afternoon and evening. It will be cooler Friday behind the trough with winds shifting to the northeast.
Another upper level trough is deepening over the Great Basin with SW flow beginning to spread toward the Central Rockies. At the surface, high pressure is over our east, while southerly flow is developing on eastern edge of lee trough over our western CWA. Mid level saturation begins to occur from the west after midnight as forcing increases ahead of deepening upper low. Precipitation will spread across the area Friday night as the upper low in the southern Rockies begins to emerge onto the adjacent plains.
1109 PM CDT Thu Mar 30 2017 Low clouds, drizzle, and light rain on the west side of an upper low over southern MO will gradually shift east during this time. Once the clouds clear, Friday should be seasonably cool with a northeast winds as high pressure moves into the Midwest. is expected to close off and slow as it moves into AZ/NM Fri night with a downstream upper level ridge moving over our area. The weather looks quiet during this time and warmer.
859 PM EDT Thu Mar 30 2017 Wrapped-up low pressure will bring rain showers to the upper Ohio Valley through Friday. Rain showers will continue early Friday as the upper low moves overhead.