Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
A QUIET NIGHT IS ON TAP FOR TONIGHT BEFORE A COLD FRONT ARRIVES FOR THURSDAY.
UPR LVL RIDGING FROM THE WRN CONUS WILL BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL STATES. THE RIDGE LOOKS TO MAKE ITS STRONGEST PUSH NWD.
STARTING OFF THIS MORNING WITH A BROAD 500MB TROUGH SET UP ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE E SEABOARD. WITH A RIDGE SET UP OVER THE S AND CENTRAL PLAINS STATES. THE ND LOW AND DEEPENING 500MB TROUGH WILL MOVE TO E MN BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE OUT OF THE SW AHEAD AND UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE THAT WILL MOVE OVERHEAD ON SUN. HIGH PRESSURE OVER N MN WILL SHIFT ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY. LOW PRESSURE ACROSS E ND AND FAR W MN THIS EVENING WILL MOVE ACROSS W UPPER MI THURSDAY MORNING /WITH SE WINDS GUSTING TO NEARING 25KTS OVER THE E HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR/.
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY, SKIES WILL CLEAR, AS HIGH PRESSURE, BRIEFLY BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.
255 PM EDT WED OCT 7 2015 HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY.
HOWEVER TIME IS RUNNING SHORT AS THE CONVECTION WILLBE MOVING EAST OF THE AREA AFTER LATE AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES. SHORT WAVE MID LEVEL RIDGE PROPAGATING EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AHEAD OF AN EMBEDDED AND RATHER ROBUST MID LEVEL S/WV TROUGH/CLIPPER SYSTEM NOW MOVING INTO SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN. DISSIPATING CLOUD COVER BEHIND THE TROUGH AS IT MOVES EAST TODAY. A NORTH/NORTHWEST WIND IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH WILL PULL LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER SOUTH ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WEST AND PRETTY MUCH THE ENTIRE CENTRAL AND EAST THROUGH MID MORNING THURSDAY. COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. RIDGE AXIS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL WORK EASTERLY TOWARDS THE PLAINS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE EAST AS POTENT UPPER LOW SETTLES INTO NORTHERN MEXICO TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE ON THE MILD SIDE WITH TEMPS IN THE LOWER/MID 70S NEAR LAREDO TO AROUND 70 NEAR VICTORIA. WHICH WILL BE IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO UPPER LOW.
135 PM EDT WED OCT 7 2015 NO MAJOR CHANGES PLANNED FOR THIS MORNING UPDATE AS DRY HIGH PRESSURE INFLUENCE WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND ALLOW HIGH TEMPS TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S AS CURRENTLY PROJECTED. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL FLATTEN OUT BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS TROUGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND RIDGING TO THE WEST WEAKENS. 00Z ECMWF NEARLY CLOSING OFF UPPER LOW.
DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS ALONG WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL PERSIST THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE STATE. TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD STEADY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE FLATTENS AND ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS ALOFT. EXPECT A FEW MORE DEGREES FOR THE HIGHS TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE WEST COAST WITH A CUT-OFF LOW CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN ARIZONA. AS THIS RIDGE BUILDS.
A MORE VIGOROUS TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST AND AFFECT NORTHERN IOWA AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE APPROACH OF THIS TROUGH WILL ALSO CAUSE SURFACE WINDS TO COME AROUND TO SOUTH SOUTHWEST LATE TONIGHT AND RESULT IN GRADUALLY INCREASING AND THICKENING CLOUDS.
DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS ALONG WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL PERSIST OVER THE DISTRICT THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE STATE. TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD STEADY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE FLATTENS AND ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS ALOFT.
Currently thinking that areas along and east of I-57 would be most prone, as the winds there will remain very light with the ridge axis not too far away.
THIS WILL DEPEND OF COURSE ON THE UPPER LOW NOT TRENDING ANY FURTHER WEST. RAIN PROSPECTS OTHERWISE CONTINUE TO SUFFER WITH A LESS FAVORABLE TRACK OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO OUR WEST AND ABUNDANT DRY AIR AFFECTING INTO AT LEAST THE EASTERN 75 PERCENT OF OUR AREA. THE UPPER LOW FORECAST TRACK HAS TRENDED YET FURTHER WEST OF THE RUNS FROM 24 HOURS AGO. SOLUTIONS STILL INSIST DEWPOINTS WILL RECOVER INTO THE LOWER OR MIDDLE 50S BY LATE THURSDAY CENTRAL AREAS AND ALLOW SOME SPREAD OF THUNDER CHANCES A BIT FURTHER TO THE EAST. RMCQUEEN THE UPPER LOW DISCUSSED ABOVE WILL BE GRADUALLY LOOSING ANY INFLUENCE ON THE WEATHER LOCALLY LATE WEEK AS IT RETROGRADES BACK TOWARD THE BAJA.
AREAS OF RAIN OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON WILL TAPER OFF EARLY THIS EVENING AS A WARM FRONT SHIFTS NORTH OUT OF THE AREA.
The large upper-level trough over the Desert Southwest is moving southeast into northern Mexico at this time and will continue this general trend through Thursday. Temperatures tonight are forecast to fall into the low to mid 60s, with highs on Thursday generally in the mid 80s. Slightly cooler temps are anticipated across the southwest portion of the CWA where rain will be more widespread.
SKIES RANGE FROM MOSTLY SUNNY IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE KEYS TO MOSTLY CLOUDY IN THE UPPER KEYS. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS ALIGNED FROM THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COAST INTO THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO.
A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHEAST ARIZONA WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY TRACK SOUTHEAST AND THEN DIVE MORE SOUTHERLY TOMORROW. THOSE DYNAMICS APPROACH AND BEGIN TO INTENSIFY AS A JET STREAK BEGINS TO ROUND THE LOW.
UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NORTHWEST GULF NORTHWARD TO MISSOURI.
Timing may be slightly slower than previous guidance, but there is good general agreement for a cold frontal passage Thursday night.
136 PM PDT WED OCT 7 2015 DRY AND HOT FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ALOFT AND WEAK OFFSHORE WINDS DEVELOP AT THE SURFACE. AND A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED AROUND 650 MILES SW OF SAN DIEGO. A WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER CENTRAL CA.
211 PM EDT WED OCT 7 2015 HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY.
334 PM MDT WED OCT 7 2015 CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS HAS WEAK FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION WITH A BROAD UPPER LOW DIGGING SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA. REGIONAL RADARS INDICATING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS OVER AND NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN. AS UPPER LOW CONTINUES INTO OLD MEXICO AND PAC NORTHWEST SYSTEM CONTINUES ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN AND INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TOMORROW AFTERNOON. HIGHS TO BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN TODAY.
250 PM EDT WED OCT 7 2015 HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ALONG THE APPALACHIANS THIS MORNING WILL BUILD OVERHEAD THROUGH TONIGHT AND TO THE COAST BY THURSDAY EVENING.
301 PM CDT WED OCT 7 2015 THE UPPER LOW IS SITTING OVER SOUTHERN ARIZONA.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA FRI EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD AGAIN OVER THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND.
343 PM EDT WED OCT 7 2015 A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS EVENING.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TOMORROW AND BRING QUIET WEATHER.
As Thursday evening approaches, so will a cold front from the north, sliding across the region tomorrow night.
Deep layer ridging will keep skies clear to partly cloudy with temperatures within a degree or two of normal this afternoon through sunrise.
AND THURSDAY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD FRONT WILL BRING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES ACROSS NORTHEAST WISCONSIN. TO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S ACROSS CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN. A QUICK MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. GIVEN THE MODEL CONSENSUS WILL TIGHTEN UP POPS A BIT THIS RUN AND FOCUS THE HIGHEST POPS ON WHEN THE HEAVIEST RAIN IS EXPECTED. WITH UPPER 60S ACROSS THE SOUTH AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
331 PM CDT WED OCT 7 2015 SOME RELATIVELY MINOR CHANGES TO OUR WEATHER PATTERN ARE EXPECTED STARTING TOMORROW AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BREAKS DOWN OVER THE REGION. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL WEAKEN AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OVER ARIZONA SLIDES SOUTHEAST INTO MEXICO. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO BRING BENEFICIAL RAIN TO PARTS OF WEST TEXAS BUT UNFORTUNATELY ITS POSITION WELL WEST OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS WILL KEEP THE BEST RAIN WEST OF OUR AREA. WITH THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WEAKENING.
A PLUME OF PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL RIDE OVER THE FLAT UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TODAY.
213 PM EDT WED OCT 7 2015 HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ALONG THE APPALACHIANS THIS MORNING WILL BUILD OVERHEAD THROUGH TONIGHT AND TO THE COAST BY THURSDAY EVENING.
SURFACE DEWPOINTS WERE IN THE LOWER 60S NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY WITH MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS LIKE THE HRRR/RAP ARE DEVELOPING SOME CONVECTION ALONG THE I-20 CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE MIDDLE 80S. 16 HIGH PRESSURE.
An upper low, currently located over southeast AZ, will continue its slow progression E/SE today, overspreading large scale forcing for ascent across the region through at least Thursday. The axis of heaviest rain looks to shift south and east toward the southern Permian Basin, Lower Trans Pecos and Big Bend regions Thursday into Thursday night but depending on the exact placement of the upper low, could see main precip area shift even farther south for this time period.
THE UPPER LOW NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/STREAMLINE DATA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TOWARD THE E/SE TO JUST WEST OF TX TONIGHT BEFORE MOVG SWD INTO THE NERN MEXICO (GFS/ECMWF DETERMINISTIC AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN. ) WARM/HOT MAX TEMPERATURES EXEPCTED TODAY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER THURSDAY OWING TO GREATER MSTR/CLOUD COVER.
WITH THE LOW DRAWING CLOSER AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON.
FIRST THE SHOWER THREAT FOR LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT SEEMS TO HAVE LESSENED WITH THE LOWER DEGREE OF DIGGING OF THE PASSING SHORT WAVE. WITH THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE EAST TONIGHT ONLY IN THE LOW CHANCE CATEGORY.
500MB RIDGE WILL CONTINUE ITS TREK EAST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AND BE REPLACED BY A 500MB LOW THAT WILL DIG SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND INTO THE SONORA AND CHIHUAHUA STATES IN NORTHWESTERN MEXICO. FORECAST WILL REMAIN DRY FOR TODAY WITH THE LACK OF BETTER MOISTURE AND RIDGING HANGING ON A BIT LONGER. ALL MOS GUIDANCE SHOW UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S HIGHS TODAY WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER ACROSS HBV-BKS AREA.
High pressure at the surface and aloft should keep the region dry through Thursday.
401 PM EDT WED OCT 7 2015 A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE STATE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING WITH A BRIEF SHOWER POSSIBLE FOR NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS. COOLER TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING ACROSS THE REGION.
SURFACE DEWPOINTS WERE IN THE LOWER 60S NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY WITH MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS LIKE THE HRRR/RAP ARE DEVELOPING SOME CONVECTION ALONG THE I-20 CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE MIDDLE 80S. 58/ROSE HIGH PRESSURE.
MORE THAN MANY OF THE HIGHER RES CAMS HAD FORECAST AT 19Z. THE ND STORMS ALSO ARE FORMING IN AN AREA OF GOOD MOISTURE TRANSPORT CONVERGENCE AND WARM ADVECTION IN THE LOW-LEVELS. SURFACE PRESSURE CONTINUES TO FALL THERE AS WELL WITH 3-4 MB FALLS AHEAD OF A N-S WARM FRONT ACROSS THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. THE BEST FORCING SEEMS TO BE COLD FRONTAL THETAE CONVERGENCE IN THE LOWEST LEVELS. THINKING AN ISOLATED TO SCT LINE OF SHRA-TSRA IS THE BEST WE ARE GOING TO DO ALONG THE COLD FRONT. THIS PERIOD IS MAINLY DRY WITH RIDGE BUILDING AND MAINLY WEAK WAVES TRYING TO GENERATE WEATHER.
326 PM EDT WED OCT 7 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THURSDAY. COOLER CONDITIONS THURSDAY BEHIND A DRY COLD FRONT.
WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. THE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BRING ANOTHER MILD DAY AND DAYTIME MIXING SHOULD YIELD SLIGHTLY LOWER DEWPOINTS THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND THUS SLIGHTLY LOWER MIN RH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL AND THE CURRENT FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. AHEAD OF THIS IS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE DRAGGING A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALSO LESSEN THE RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES OVER THESE LOCATIONS. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A APPROACHING COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES IN FACT WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS REACHING THE LOWER 80S. AND A COLD FRONT AND AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST.
SRLY WINDS HAD INCREASED OVER THE NRN PLAINS INTO WRN MN BTWN HIGH PRES OVER NRN ONTARIO AND LAKE SUPERIOR AND A TROUGH AND WARM FRONT FROM SRN SASK INTO THE WRN DAKOTAS. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE OUT OF THE SW AHEAD AND UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE THAT WILL MOVE OVERHEAD ON SUN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE TO THE EAST THROUGH NRN ONTARIO THIS EVENING. LOW PRESSURE ACROSS ERN ND AND FAR W MN THIS EVENING WILL MOVE ACROSS W UPPER MI THURSDAY MORNING WITH SE WINDS GUSTING TO NEARING 30KTS OVER THE E HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR. BEHIND THE LOW NRLY WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE TO 30 KNOTS. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH FRI AS A RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA.
WINDS WILL ALSO DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET AS MOST AREAS DECOUPLE UNDER THE DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE. MAY DIP INTO THE LOWER 30S.
COOLER AIR WILL THEN FILTER INTO THE REGION FOR THURSDAY WITH TEMPERATURES ABOUT 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY. THE MODELS SHOW ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH SPREADING CLOUDS ALONG WITH SOME SMALL CHANCES OF LIGHT RAIN TO OUR SOUTHWEST CWA TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
445 PM EDT WED OCT 7 2015 THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
IT IS ANOTHER WARM AFTERNOON FOR EARLY OCTOBER WHERE AVERAGES ARE TYPICALLY SOME 10 DEGREES COOLER DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
648 PM EDT WED OCT 7 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THURSDAY WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES AVERAGING NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL.
512 PM EDT WED OCT 7 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THURSDAY WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES AVERAGING NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL.
NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
255 PM CDT WED OCT 7 2015 The extensive rain through the highway 54 and 56 corridor northeastward through the Dodge City/Kinsley Stafford areas has contributed heavily to holding down even downward revised afternoon high forecasts. With less clouds/more insolation and southerly surface winds returning Thursday, temperatures should be easier to forecast, reaching the lower to middle 80s in some cases as the consensus of the models are indicating.
THIS WILL HELP FORCE A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CWA ON THURSDAY. THE MODEL INDICATE GOOD ULJ SUPPORT APPROACHING FROM THE HIGH PLAINS. WILL INCREASE POP CHANCES ACROSS NORTHWEST NEBRASKA AND THE ADJACENT CENTRAL SANDHILLS ON THURSDAY INTO THE HIGH CHANCE RANGE. STRONG CAA IN THE LOWER LEVELS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR NEAR SEASONAL HIGHS.
/ISSUED 443 AM CDT WED OCT 7 2015/ (Today and Tonight) Showers and thunderstorms associated with an upper level low over southern Arizona this morning will continue to develop over West Texas today and slowly expand eastward in coverage through tonight. Highs this afternoon will be in the upper 80s over all of West Central Texas and morning lows tomorrow under mostly cloudy skies will be in the lower 60s.
249 PM CDT WED OCT 7 2015 EVEN THOUGH HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA AT 19Z. WILL CONTINUE TO SEE THE CLOUD COVER EXPAND ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO ND FROM SOUTHERN ALBERTA. MUCH COOLER AIR WILL COVER THE REGION THURSDAY. THE NORTHLAND WILL BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH COOL NORTHERLY FLOW AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION.
AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS SLATED TO PROPAGATE EASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. ATTENDANT COLD FRONT TO BE ORIENTED FROM NE TO SW ACROSS IOWA. DWPT DEPRESSION IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE PRETTY DECENT. HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BRING IN MUCH DRIER AIR.
CLOUDS AND PRECIP BEGINNING TO SPILL OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE INTO WESTERN ID THIS AFTN. THE RIDGE BUILDS BACK UP FOR WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS THRU SAT. THE RIDGE FLATTENS TO ZONAL FLOW BY SUN. A SECOND WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES TONIGHT AND LEAVES CLOUDS BUT LITTLE ELSE IN ITS WAKE. THE FRONT IS NOT SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO EVEN HALT THE WARMING THAT WILL OCCUR AS HIGH PRESSURE RE-BUILDS INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN. THE UPPER RIDGE DOES FLATTEN A LITTLE FOR A COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA.
219 PM CDT WED OCT 7 2015 TEMPS AT 200 PM WERE MAINLY IN THE LOW/MID 80S WITH HSV THE WARMEST AT 91. AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS WAS EXTENDING FROM LA THRU AR AND INTO PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST. THERE WAS A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE SWRN US AND A WEAKER WAVE OVER THE NRN PLAINS. UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN BY THE EVENING HOURS AS A CDFNT/WEAK UPPER TROF HEADS TOWARDS THE TN VALLEY.
201 PM EDT WED OCT 7 2015 LOW PRESSURE WELL OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST MOVES FARTHER OUT TO SEA TODAY. THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THURSDAY.
WITH TEMPERATURES RISING ABOVE FREEZING BY 9 AM. TEMPS COULD BE A BIT COOLER WITH FROST NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OVER THE REGION. TEMPS SHOULD WARM ABOVE NORMAL ALONG AND WEST OF THE VALLEY INTO THE LOW/MID 60S WITH MID/UPPER 50S IN THE FAR EAST.
357 PM EDT WED OCT 7 2015 A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION LATER TODAY WITH A FEW SPRINKLES POSSIBLE.
Temperatures have warmed well ahead of yesterdays rate while 12z regional soundings support high temps at least at current forecast values and possibly a few degrees warmer.
SOME DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED WITH FRONTOGENESIS ASSOCIATED WITH A MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH PIVOTS THROUGH SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTHERN NEBRASKA TODAY AND THIS EVENING. THIS WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THURSDAY NIGHT WITH WINDS DIMINISHING THURSDAY EVENING. THE LOWER LEVELS BELOW THIS LAYER STAY RELATIVELY DRY HOWEVER. IT DOES APPEAR THAT ENOUGH MOISTENING IN THE LOWER LAYER OCCURS DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON TO WARRANT A SLIGHT CHANCE POP.
233 PM PDT WED OCT 7 2015 High pressure dominates the region this week with temperatures returning to above average.
DENSE FOG MAY OCCUR AS FAR WEST AS LAREDO AND COTULLA (IF THE MOISTURE GETS BACK THAT FAR WEST AND TEMPERATURES COOL) AND AS FAR EAST AS VICTORIA (IF THE LOW LEVEL JET PUSHES FAR ENOUGH EAST AND WINDS DECOUPLE ENOUGH/SHIFT EAST TOWARD MORNING). TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 50S OVER INLAND AREAS OVERNIGHT (TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN COOLER THAN EXPECTED OVERNIGHT IN A FEW AREAS BUT THINK THAT WE WILL NOT SEE ANY 40S TONIGHT).
LOW CLOUDS TO LIMIT MINS TO UPPER TEENS NORTH TO LOWER 20S SOUTH WITH ISOLATED FLURRIES AND POSSIBLY PATCHY LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE THOUGH THIS SHOULD BE VERY LIGHT AND HAVE LITTLE OR NO IMPACTS.
1254 PM EST SUN FEB 14 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST TONIGHT AS A WEAKENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.
BUT COULD STAY GUSTY ALONG AND DOWNWIND OF RIDGE TOPS WELL INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. A DRY UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CROSS TODAY WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT. THIS WILL DROP THE HIGH TEMPERATURE A FEW TO 13 DEGREES FROM YESTERDAYS NEAR RECORD WARMTH.
246 PM CST SUN FEB 14 2016 LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH TEXAS THROUGH THE EVENING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. HIGHS MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE 60S TO THE LOWER 70S.
1154 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2016 WAA WELL UNDERWAY ACROSS SE TX THIS MORNING/AFTN WITH A FAIRLY DE- CENT LAYER OF STRONG ONSHORE WINDS AT THE LOWER LEVELS MIXING DOWN TO THE SFC.
1129 AM EST SUN FEB 14 2016 UPDATE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING EAST TODAY WILL MAKE WAY FOR LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE ACROSS THE MIDWEST.
1113 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2016 ONLY A FEW FLURRIES REMAINING ACROSS THE REGION AND PERHAPS A FEW PATCHES OF LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE. WARMER AIR WITH THE ADVANCING FRONTAL BOUNDARY DOES NOT MAKE IT VERY FAR EAST. ALTHOUGH BISMARCK RADAR INDICATING AN AREA OF FREEZING DRIZZLE IS FOLLOWING CLOSE BEHIND SNOWFALL. AND A WEAK WAVE MOVING OVERTOP THE RIDGE. A STRONG WAVE MOVES ON SHORE THE WEST COAST EARLY IN THE PERIOD AND SHOVES THE RIDGE EAST AND FLATTENS IT.
As this system moves through tonight into Monday, it will drop 1 to 2 inches of precipitation over the higher terrain of the Clearwater, Bitterroot, Cabinet, Swan and Mission mountains. Due to the high snow levels and abundant rainfall, a hydrologic outlook was issued for the threat of rock and/or mudslides along US-12 of Idaho and I-90 near Lookout pass.
AN UPPER RIDGE WITH AN AXIS ALONG THE WEST COAST WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN TODAY AND TONIGHT. THUS SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIMITED TO THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS.
5 G/KG AT 700 MB PER NAM) SPILLING OVER THE WEST COAST RIDGE ARRIVES OVER THE ELKHEAD AND PARK RANGES EARLY THIS MORNING AND WILL SPREAD INTO THE FLAT TOPS.
WITH A WEAK TROUGH EAST OF FLORIDA MOVING INTO THE OPEN ATLANTIC. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC IS SPRAWLED ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD. DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER ON MONDAY.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH AXIS OVER W TEXAS WHICH SHOULD SWING ACROSS TEXAS TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD PUSH THROUGH SE TX MONDAY AFTERNOON. COLDER AND DRIER AIRMASS DOES MOVE INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
FOR THE MUCH OF THE AREA IT HAS BEEN A MIX OF SLEET, FREEZING RAIN, AND SNOW. BY DAYBREAK, IT LOOKS LIKE SFC TEMPS SHOULD BE ABOVE FREEZING AT ALL LOCATIONS IN THE CWA. THE CENTER OF THE LOW WILL TRACK JUST EAST OF THE CWA AND WILL BRING SOME DECENT RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY.
CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL DEFINED AREA OF MODERATE TO BRIEF HEAVY SNOW IN A REGION OF STRONG FORCING AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AHEAD OF MID LEVEL TROUGH/VORT MAX TRACKING OVER NORTHEAST MN. ALTHOUGH FLURRIES/DRIZZLE CAN NOT BE RULED OUT DUE TO THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND 500HPA TEMPS OF NEGATIVE 30C.
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE RACING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY AND THEN THE GULF COAST MONDAY EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. MODELS STILL NOT CONSISTENT ON HOW DEEP THE LOW WILL BE AND HOW FAST IT WILL BE INTENSIFYING FROM MONDAY 18Z-00Z. LOCATIONS CLOSER TO THE COAST WILL MORE LIKELY BE HINDERED WITH BUOYANCY DUE TO COOLER GULF WATERS.
Three NW AR counties still in the advisory through noon as temperatures remain at or slightly below freezing. Any threat for wintry precipitation will likely end by early afternoon as temperatures warm above freezing.
1117 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2016 Precipitation has expanded across much of west central into central Missouri this morning, much of which consists of a sleet/freezing rain mix. While precipitation is quick-moving, freezing rain rates are high enough to get a quick coating of ice up to 1/8" thick in less than a half hour. The latter area should continue to expand into west central and into central Missouri through the morning, where forecast soundings suggest a mix of sleet and snow, and possibly light freezing rain or freezing drizzle as well. However, if freezing rain/drizzle starts to dominate then a winter weather advisory may need to be expanded into areas near and south of US 50.
WINDS SHOULD BECOME SOUTHERLY/SOUTHEASTERLY LATE IN THE DAY AND GRADUALLY BECOME EASTERLY AND EVENTUALLY NORTHWESTERLY LATE TONIGHT AS A WEAK COLD FRONT PASSES. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE THREE TAF SITES AFTER 08Z MONDAY WITH WINDS BECOMING NORTH BUT STILL ONLY 5 TO 10 KNOTS.
253 PM CST SUN FEB 14 2016 WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH MOST OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON AND IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA COUNTIES DURING THE EVENING HOURS.
A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY ENTERING INTO THE NORTHWEST ZONES AND WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL END QUICKLY MONDAY AFTERNOON AS DRIER AND COOLER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE NORTH.
A WARM FRONT OVER THE AREA IS BRINGING WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN TO SOUTHWEST OREGON AND AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN EAST OF THE CASCADES AND INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. SOME GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO OCCURRING IN THE SUMMER LAKE AREA AND OVER THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS. RAIN WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON AND DIMINISH TONIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH.