Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
524 AM MDT Tue Mar 16 2021 A closed low pressure is currently located over southern Nevada and is expected to progress eastward over the course of today and tonight. Later today as the low passes over New Mexico the forcing will become maximized across the region. With the instability scattered showers are expected, and perhaps a few embedded storms, this afternoon with development over the higher terrain. Relatively warm temperatures will also increase the potential for a rain snow mix or all rain in the lower elevations. By this evening the low will lift out over the plains and forcing will decrease causing showers to dissipate.
A ridge building over the Southwest will bring fair and warmer weather to northern Arizona the rest of the week and into the weekend. Models have done a good job with the timing and intensity of this robust low pressure area and attendant frontal precipitation. The forecasts are on track with the low pressure and associated frontal precipitation moving to the east and out of AZ this morning, with lingering instability showers near the cold core of the low as it quickly crosses N.
Early this morning, a pair of closed lows were present across the CONUS: the first centered just north of the forecast area over South Dakota and Nebraska with the other over southern California. Further north, temperatures will top out in the low to mid 50s. The closed low currently over California races eastward during the day today approaching the Plains tonight into Wednesday. While the warm sector remains south of the CWA, models depict MUCAPE to the north of the warm front still on the order of 500-1500 J/kg which, coupled with plentiful effective shear, would be supportive of elevated strong to severe storms with large hail and damaging winds being the main hazards.
A low pressure system will slide eastward through Arizona today, bringing a chance of rain and even snow showers down to 3500 feet. Conditions will also be much cooler than normal.
722 AM EDT Tue Mar 16 2021 Crossing low pressure should maintain rain chances today. Dry weather returns by Wednesday under high pressure.
655 AM EDT Tue Mar 16 2021 Outside passing high clouds, high pressure will generally provide quiet and dry weather through Wednesday.
There has been some isolated freezing fog in southwest Minnesota as well. With plenty of moisture in the lower levels, and a 500mb low to our west, today will be mostly cloudy. A potent low pressure system will pass to the south of the area Wednesday night. The northern end of the precipitation should remain confined to Iowa into far southern Wisconsin, but it wouldn't take much of a drift north to see some light rain or snow across far southern Minnesota so kept the low PoPs for now.
1011 AM EDT Tue Mar 16 2021 Diminishing rain chances today should lead to a dry Wednesday under high pressure.
Warmer, drier, and breezy conditions are then expected for the remainder of the workweek.
634 AM EDT Tue Mar 16 2021 Cool high pressure over the region will give way to a warm front moving northward across the area today.
557 AM CDT Tue Mar 16 2021 (Today and tonight) An intense upper low center over southern CA this morning will move eastward to eastern NM by mid-evening Tuesday.
Local 88Ds show spotty light shower activity - coverage should increase over the next couple of hours and gradually lift nwd as our warm frontal boundary also shifts farther inland. Precipitation chances will continue to increase as an associated cold front is pushed towards the region, with highest chances/coverage expected with FROPA.
Dry weather through Wednesday with an upper ridge building into the Pacific Northwest.
1026 AM EDT Tue Mar 16 2021 Outside passing high clouds, high pressure will generally provide quiet and dry weather through Wednesday.
Another compact closed low now over southern Nevada looks to remain south of the area in south CO and NM and shouldn't impact our sensible weather into Wednesday. This will limit any large scale melting of the snow unless the higher angle sun can assist in areas where pavement is somewhat exposed.
617 AM CDT Tue Mar 16 2021 Remnant upper low over southwest SD this morning should slowly/gradually advect to the east/ne through today and tonight. It appears that a wave aloft associated with the low will track across the region through tonight. On Wednesday expect the remaining upper low/trof to have pushed off to the east, so pcpn chances should pretty much end over the area.
This lift combined with saturated 850mb layer is producing scattered radar echos with SFC observations showing some freezing drizzle occuring. In eastern ND slight upslope easterly winds helping to produce the mixed ptype from Gwinner to Valley City north to Cooperstown showing 2 to 4 mile visibility which is typical for freezing drizzle. As the upper low begins to pull away northerly winds and breaks in cloud cover will begin to realized across the area tonight into Wednesday. Wednesday will be 5 to 10 degrees warmer than today with peaks of afternoon sunshine.
647 AM EDT Tue Mar 16 2021 A weak system will bring a light wintry mix of snow and sleet on today and patchy freezing drizzle this evening through tonight.
Dense fog and patchy drizzle will be slow to lift this morning as a subsidence inversion traps moisture in the lowest 3 kft of the boundary layer. We favored the cooler side of guidance for highs. Overnight temperatures should favor the warmer side of guidance as (1) heights across central IL increase in response to warm air advection, and (2) fog development prevents us from radiating out. The focus then turns toward Wednesday as a robust upper-level trough lifts out of the Southern Plains and pivots toward the Mid- Mississippi Valley. Light rain will begin to spread into the region late Wednesday morning with isentropic uplift gliding over the warm front.
530 AM EDT Tue Mar 16 2021 The upper level flow over the eastern US this morning is characterized by fairly zonal flow, while a trough is located over the northern and central Rockies. At the surface, high pressure is centered over the northern Great Lakes, with the ridging extending into the central Appalachians. An area of low pressure is located well to our southwest over Arkansas with a frontal boundary stalled out over the deep south. We have already seen some areas go from the lower 40s to around 50 in the last hour. While moisture is fairly limited with this feature, there is some potential for some shallow instability to develop as surface temperatures climb into the lower 70s.
/Issued 313 AM CDT Tue Mar 16 2021/ Compact upper cyclone moving into the southwestern states will eject east today, with deeper moisture currently across southeastern TX poised to surge north.
538 AM EDT Tue Mar 16 2021 Crossing low pressure should maintain rain chances today. Dry weather returns by Wednesday under high pressure.
340 PM EDT Tue Mar 16 2021 A weak system will bring a light wintry mix of snow, sleet, and maybe freezing drizzle into tonight.
A downward trend in precipitation is expected today as an upper level low ejects eastward. Dry and warmer conditions are expected for much of this week as high pressure builds over the region. Another system may bring another round of light precipitation, cooler temperatures, and gusty winds this weekend. Upper low positioned over central Arizona this morning. As the low continues to slowly shift east any light showers/clouds wrapping back west into Lincoln, Clark and Mohave Counties will gradually dissipate through the day.
129 PM EDT Tue Mar 16 2021 Diminishing rain chances today should lead to a dry Wednesday under high pressure.
321 PM CDT Tue Mar 16 2021 An upper level low over eastern SD will continue to move northeastward. We've had easterly flow aloft with the low to the south today. Clouds will decrease tomorrow as the upper low over MN opens and makes more progress eastward. Upper ridging to the west will then move into the area, favoring dry conditions with light winds and decreasing clouds.
Cooler temperatures are forecast on Wednesday, with highs ranging from the 60s across the Big Country to the low to mid 70s across the Interstate 10 corridor.
Highs today are on track so far looking to top out in the low to mid 40s. This is our brief break between systems with the next closed low aloft working its way east across the Southern Plains.
Showers will decrease for all but a few central Wyoming areas tonight as ridging builds over the area.
243 PM MDT Tue Mar 16 2021 Latest analysis shows the upper low continues to shift slowly northeastward and away from the forecast area. Northwesterly surface winds have developed over much of the forecast area this afternoon due to an area of high pressure moving in from the the northwest. Highs will be about 5 degrees warmer than today.
An upper level vorticity max was located across eastern South Dakota, and the lift associated with this closed low was enough to produce widespread snow across southwest Minnesota today. That will leave Minnesota and Wisconsin in an area of upper level high rises, with low level diffluent flow.
225 PM CDT Tue Mar 16 2021 (Issued 225 PM CDT Tue Mar 16 2021) Tonight through Wednesday: High pressure will shift slightly east of the area but should keep things quiet tonight.
Weak upper level ridging will take hold, with drier surface conditions.
310 PM CDT Tue Mar 16 2021 The upper low that has been spinning over the Northern Plains for the last day or two will slowly begin to push off to the east tonight, exiting the area Wednesday morning. Weak ridging then builds over the area Wednesday night. At the surface, high pressure will remain over the area tonight, aiding in keeping low clouds over the region. However, high pressure will move right back in behind it Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday night, so may see the ceilings lift, but not much clearing until after the short term period. Lows Wednesday night will be in the lower to mid 20s. Ridging will build across the region into the weekend with warming 925/850 mb temps.
107 PM MST Tue Mar 16 2021 A low pressure system over Arizona will exit the area this evening bringing an end to any rain and snow showers.
Partly cloudy, dry, and warmer weather will prevail this week as a ridge drifts over the State. A trough will follow the ridge this weekend, bringing cooler weather, gusty westerly winds in the mountains and deserts, and a small chance for showers. with temps in the upper 20s/30s, but a little warmer over San Diego County.
Issued by National Weather Service Wichita KS 236 PM CDT Tue Mar 16 2021 A compact closed low over the Southwest early this afternoon is progged to continue moving eastward across the Southern Rockies this evening before emerging over the Southern Plains late tonight. A brief lull is possible during the morning hours but as the mid/upper trough moves into northeast OK, an increasing TROWAL airstream and developing deformation axis should fill in with precipitation.
As a warm front lifts northward, showers and thunderstorms will return between 14Z and 18Z.
Forecast soundings suggest some drying in the mid levels, which could result in a transition from light snow to patchy freezing drizzle.
A ridge building over the Southwest will bring fair and warmer weather to northern Arizona the rest of the work week. The frontal band associated with a cold upper low crossing the area is currently located over Navajo and Apache counties. Additional shower activity will develop as the cold core of the low moves overhead through the day. The remainder of the week looks to feature quiet weather as a ridge of high pressure builds into the region.
307 PM EDT Tue Mar 16 2021 High pressure will build south of the region tonight and move well south and east of the area Wednesday.
Model guidance is not handling the lower cloud that is spreading north over portions of the region due to moisture return ahead of an approaching system. Plume of high level subtropical moisture is spreading northeast over the region ahead of an impressive upper low spinning over AZ. A warm front was lifting north near the Red River, with another warm front marking the northern edge of the true Gulf airmass down over southeast TX lifting north. /Issued 313 AM CDT Tue Mar 16 2021/ Compact upper cyclone moving into the southwestern states will eject east today, with deeper moisture currently across southeastern TX poised to surge north.
227 PM MDT Tue Mar 16 2021 Low pressure that brought the rain and snow to the eastern half of the CWA is slowly weakening and moving out. Dry with a warming trend will take place as an upper ridge builds in from the west.
Remnant upper low over southwest SD this morning should slowly/gradually advect to the east/ne through today and tonight. It appears that a wave aloft associated with the low will track across the region through tonight. On Wednesday expect the remaining upper low/trof to have pushed off to the east, so pcpn chances should pretty much end over the area.
Low level winds remain rather weak today and will limit tornado potential, despite some clockwise turning of the low level hodographs.
As the low pressure system moves in from the west in the afternoon, a warm front will extend roughly along I-44.
1146 AM MDT Tue Mar 16 2021 A closed low pressure is currently located over southern Nevada and is expected to progress eastward over the course of today and tonight. Later today as the low passes over New Mexico the forcing will become maximized across the region. With the instability scattered showers are expected, and perhaps a few embedded storms, this afternoon with development over the higher terrain. Relatively warm temperatures will also increase the potential for a rain snow mix or all rain in the lower elevations. By this evening the low will lift out over the plains and forcing will decrease causing showers to dissipate.
228 PM MDT Tue Mar 16 2021 Compact upper low will continue to race eastward across northern New Mexico this evening.
Snow accumulations should be little if any especially in the lower elevation towns. TFJ An elongated low pressure pressure system is currently over eastern Montana early this morning. Moisture has converged on a surface boundary along this low which has brought a mix of rain and snow to parts of the area overnight.
113 PM EDT Tue Mar 16 2021 Outside passing high clouds, high pressure will generally provide quiet and dry weather through Wednesday.
1015 AM MST Tue Mar 16 2021 Updated Aviation A low pressure system will slide eastward through Arizona today, bringing a chance of rain and even snow showers down to 3500 feet. Conditions will also be much cooler than normal.
350 PM EDT Tue Mar 16 2021 "More of the same" is the theme for this afternoon, as a broad ridge extends over the southern Gulf of Mexico and western Caribbean Sea.
A cold front will approach the area tonight, introducing showers and thunderstorms.
402 PM EDT Tue Mar 16 2021 Dry weather is expected tonight into Wednesday as weak high pressure crosses the Great Lakes.
158 PM PDT Tue Mar 16 2021 High pressure ridging currently moving into the region will bring a return to dry weather and a warming trend through midweek.
1259 PM PDT Tue Mar 16 2021 Partly cloudy, dry, and warmer weather will prevail this week as a ridge drifts over the State. Some patchy frost is possible again tonight in the valleys, but a solid warm-up is at hand through midweek under the ridge. A trough will follow this weekend, bringing cooler weather, gusty westerly winds in the mountains and deserts, and a small chance for showers. A period of quiet and warmer weather is on tap for SoCal after one more chilly night. As our upper low departs, a ridge will drift east across SoCal over the next few days with lighter winds, partly cloudy skies, and temperatures getting back to mid-March averages.
This will help to destabilize the environment a little ahead of a potent low pressure system tracking through the Ozarks/lower Mississippi Valley as daytime highs climb into the low to mid 60s. Nonetheless, will introduce mention of non-severe thunderstorms into the forecast starting Wednesday evening with better chances Wednesday night as central Indiana falls into the left exit region of a 80 kt upper level jet and the surface warm front surges northward.
Increasing high clouds expected Wednesday, otherwise dry with slightly warmer temperatures.
Plume of high level subtropical moisture is spreading northeast over the region ahead of an impressive upper low spinning over AZ. A warm front was lifting north near the Red River, with another warm front marking the northern edge of the true Gulf airmass down over southeast TX lifting north. /Issued 313 AM CDT Tue Mar 16 2021/ Compact upper cyclone moving into the southwestern states will eject east today, with deeper moisture currently across southeastern TX poised to surge north.
This activity is being driven by persist WAA and isentropic ascent overtop a slowly sagging cold frontal boundary with a moisture feed from a WSW-ENE oriented subtropical jet coming out of the eastern Pacific. BW Chattanooga Airport, TN 54 67 58 68 48 / 30 90 100 50 20 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 52 65 57 69 47 / 10 80 100 70 50 Oak Ridge, TN 51 65 56 69 46 / 10 80 100 70 60 Tri Cities Airport, TN 49 69 53 71 45 / 10 60 90 90 70.
246 PM MDT Tue Mar 16 2021 Showers and thunderstorms continue this afternoon over much of the western slope as low pressure moves east through the Four Corners region. Light to moderate snow showers also continue in the higher terrain today, especially in the San Juans where decaying convective cells have occasionally resulted in brief bursts of Graupel and heavy snow. The San Juans will still see the highest totals, with a general 3 to 6 inch event from this afternoon and this evening into the overnight period. Elsewhere, expect partly to mostly sunny skies with temperatures rebounding nicely into the low to mid 50s in valley locations. By Wednesday night, ridging aloft will move into the central Rockies with a bit of high cirrus moving eastward into Utah and the Four Corners after midnight.
The big weather features for tomorrow is the cold front passage, and possibilities of severe storms. The timing of the cold front and possible line of storms is late morning for east Texas, near noon in southeast Texas, early afternoon in southwest and central Louisiana, and late afternoon in south central Louisiana.
For the remainder of the day there is sufficient moisture in the lower levels of the atmosphere to produce scattered to broken cloud cover. Low temperatures tonight fall into the low 20s to low 30s.
102 PM CDT Tue Mar 16 2021 (Today and tonight) An intense upper low center over southern CA this morning will move eastward to eastern NM by mid-evening Tuesday.
Have decided to go with a mention of mainly patchy drizzle, freezing drizzle, or a little snow, as soundings are rather questionable on the availability of ice to work with, especially overnight. On Wednesday skies will gradually clear from northwest to southeast as upper ridge to the west gradually pushes in. With the ridge pushing in, temperatures will rebound to a bit above average. Quiet through the work week as upper ridge builds and pushes through the region.
A large area of low level moisture is sprawled about the Lower Great Lakes region as the energy from the upper low that brought the sleet yesterday is stretched out and moves north and east away from the region. Perhaps a few breaks in the clouds occur especially near Lake MI and that's where I would expect the lowest temperatures to occur tonight. This is as high pressure vacates the area and low pressure comes into better view for Wednesday night. The aforementioned upper low spreads clouds across the area Wednesday evening into the overnight and rain begins in the late afternoon or evening. Based on the track of the upper low and the setup for this situation, feel the chances for thunderstorms will remain low with the warm front struggling to push north into the area.
541 PM MDT Tue Mar 16 2021 Showers and thunderstorms continue this afternoon over much of the western slope as low pressure moves east through the Four Corners region. Light to moderate snow showers also continue in the higher terrain today, especially in the San Juans where decaying convective cells have occasionally resulted in brief bursts of Graupel and heavy snow. The San Juans will still see the highest totals, with a general 3 to 6 inch event from this afternoon and this evening into the overnight period. Elsewhere, expect partly to mostly sunny skies with temperatures rebounding nicely into the low to mid 50s in valley locations. By Wednesday night, ridging aloft will move into the central Rockies with a bit of high cirrus moving eastward into Utah and the Four Corners after midnight.
GAH AFTERNOON DISCUSSION: Low pressure that brought the rain and snow to the eastern half of the CWA is slowly weakening and moving out. Dry with a warming trend will take place as an upper ridge builds in from the west.
A low pressure system over Arizona will exit the area this evening bringing an end to any rain and snow showers.
730 PM MDT Tue Mar 16 2021 The low pressure center is currently spinning over central New Mexico with the deformation zone bringing precipitation to the southern and central mountains and the eastern plains mainly south of I-70. Slippery conditions over the high country has made for dangerous travel, especially over the higher passes. Forecast for Wednesday remains on track with light snow diminishing as the low and accompanying moisture pulls away to the east. Temperatures will remain on the cooler side due to the continued high amount of snow cover and extended cloudy conditions through Wednesday. Compact upper low will continue to race eastward across northern New Mexico this evening.
The upper low that has been spinning over the Northern Plains for the last day or two will slowly begin to push off to the east tonight, exiting the area Wednesday morning. Weak ridging then builds over the area Wednesday night. At the surface, high pressure will remain over the area tonight, aiding in keeping low clouds over the region. However, high pressure will move right back in behind it Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday night, so may see the ceilings lift, but not much clearing until after the short term period. Lows Wednesday night will be in the lower to mid 20s. Ridging will build across the region into the weekend with warming 925/850 mb temps.
338 PM MDT Tue Mar 16 2021 Low pressure that brought the rain and snow to the eastern half of the CWA is slowly weakening and moving out. Dry with a warming trend will take place as an upper ridge builds in from the west.
Situation still setting up for severe weather Wed/Wed night as a warm front lifts north, and later in the night a cold front passes. Showery and increasing stormy wx will develop after 15Z as a potent low pressure system impacts the region.
707 PM EDT Tue Mar 16 2021 A weak system will bring a light wintry mix of snow, sleet, and maybe freezing drizzle into tonight.
615 PM MDT Tue Mar 16 2021 Overview: An upper level low presently situated over the Desert Southwest will track eastward into the TX Panhandle tonight, then eastward across OK on Wednesday.
A compact closed low over the Southwest early this afternoon is progged to continue moving eastward across the Southern Rockies this evening before emerging over the Southern Plains late tonight. A brief lull is possible during the morning hours but as the mid/upper trough moves into northeast OK, an increasing TROWAL airstream and developing deformation axis should fill in with precipitation.
1049 PM EDT Tue Mar 16 2021 An expansive dome of high pressure located over the western Atlantic is keeping things very benign and dry for the Florida Keys. As this high gets shoved towards the central Atlantic, a ridge axis will extend across extreme South Florida, keeping our area under an east to southeast wind regime.
901 PM CDT Tue Mar 16 2021 (Issued 900 CDT Tue Mar 16 2021) A cloudy but otherwise quiet night is expected, with overcast stratus and temperatures in the low 30s. Boxell (Issued 225 PM CDT Tue Mar 16 2021) Tonight through Wednesday: High pressure will shift slightly east of the area but should keep things quiet tonight.