Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Thereafter, a subtle presence of high pressure will extend into the Deep South. With this drier, stable airmass in place, a calm and cooler night is expected with lows in the upper 50s across the northern valleys to the mid 60s farther south.
113 AM CDT Tue Jun 15 2021 For the 15/06Z TAF period, VFR conditions should largely prevail this period as high pressure will dominate at the sfc and aloft. /Tonight through Tuesday night/ Well so much for having such little faith in what was a really good heat index forecast as this cold front has done fairly well for much of our I-20 corridor, despite a hot start having not really cooled off much last night. High pressure at it's core anyway, is keeping to our north with low to mid 60 Tds in central and NE AR regionally speaking. The plan is to keep this NE flow in the lower to middle atmosphere in play and work to propagate the air mass close enough to avoid another heat advisory with this slightly drier air into midweek.
The upper low will move through on Tuesday with another chance of showers and thunderstorms. High pressure returns for the rest of the week with dry weather and cooler temperatures. Skies and rain showers clear out tomorrow night as high pressure begins to move in. Cooler temperatures are also expected as lows will drop into the upper 40s and low 50s. High pressure will be in place for the short term period. High temps are a little cooler again on Wednesday as they will only be in the 60s and 70s.
Closer to 07Z, showers with moderate rainfall and some elevated thunderstorms are expected to organize along the cold front from around MWH to OMK, or a little to the east, and move northeastward through the morning. Then, in the late morning and afternoon, there is a renewed potential for surface based convection in the northern Idaho Panhandle and northern Washington mountains as the main trough swings overhead.
Afternoon highs will top out in the low to mid 80s. Dewpoints will generally stay in the low to mid 50s today and provide us a nice reprieve from the typical summer mugginess.
High pressure with drier and cooler air will cover the area mid to late week. Passage of a cold front will bring winds around to the northwest for Tuesday. Drier air will also infiltrate the area behind the front with dewpoints falling throughout the day Tuesday, dipping into the lower 50s during the afternoon. As cooler drier air infiltrates the forecast area expect a more comfortable feel to the air. A closed upper low stalled over eastern Canada will place us solidly in northwest flow.
1238 AM CDT Tue Jun 15 2021 A cold front will move into the area tonight with some high clouds associated with it. Even though it's warm, there are some benefits of being to the southeast of a high pressure center.
Light northerly winds will continue to advect somewhat cooler air across the area today. Under mostly sunny skies and mixing to near 5 kft, max temps well inland from Lake Superior should get into the lower/perhaps a few mid 70s. dewpoints will fall into the lower to mid 30s away from Lake Superior today. With a clear calm night expected tonight with the ridge axis overhead. overnight lows will fall into the lower 40s for most with even some mid/upper 30s in typically colder spots of the interior west.
High pressure to the north feeding dry air into the region will allow for temperatures to fall quite a bit tonight, with lows again in the 50s to around 60. Winds will increase a tad Tuesday night as well ahead of an approaching trough. The models show the ridge over our region bringing the hot air on Wednesday being knocked down by an upper level low pressure trough moving across Canada. The upper low pressure area in Canada will then move southeast and across the Great Lakes and northeast U.
Radar shows some isolated showers in eastern KY associated with an approaching cold front. Showers near TRI are forecast to weaken with clearing conditions overnight as a cold front moves southeast bringing considerably drier and cooler air. JB Chattanooga Airport, TN 88 63 85 61 87 / 0 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 83 61 82 58 83 / 0 0 10 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 83 60 82 57 82 / 0 0 10 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 80 57 78 51 80 / 0 0 10 0 0.
Another trough will move into the southeastern US Tonight into Tuesday morning, and enter SE GA in the afternoon. For Wednesday, trough will sink a little further to the south.
Most of the high-res CAMs show convective initiation over northeast WY this afternoon, with cell motion to the southeast. Tuesday will be warmest (hottest if you prefer) day this week as the center of the 500mb heat ridge is over the central Rockies. The upper ridge will break down slightly on Wednesday, allowing a weak cool front to drop south into the high plains.
High pressure and weak cold air advection at 850mb indicates temps tonight a few to several degrees cooler than last night. Seasonal temperatures are indicated for Tuesday as the high settles down over the area of sets up return flow for Wednesday.
404 AM EDT Tue Jun 15 2021 A cold front will move slowly through the area this afternoon and a few showers and thunderstorms are possible mainly in the east Midlands.
308 AM CDT Tue Jun 15 2021 Upper level ridge remains to the west of the area as an upper level trough is moving south across the eastern U. The highest heat index readings across the southeastern Kansas and western MO where heat index values in the middle to upper 90s are expected. Heat index values in the lower to upper 90s are expected again.
There has been little change to the synoptic pattern with an upper-level trough over the eastern U. and impressive upper ridge stretching from the southwestern U. On Wednesday, ample moisture and continued upper-level troughing is likely to result in higher rain chances than normal, but the overall pattern should be more typical of summer with greatest chances moving inland with the sea breeze during the afternoon.
1132 PM CDT Mon Jun 14 2021 Currently have upper ridge centered over the Southern Rockies/Desert Southwest with upper troughing over the Eastern Great Lakes Region. At the surface, high is centered over Northeast OK with return flow across the High Plains. Not much is expected to change for tonight into Tue with upper ridging remaining over the Four Corners region. Wed and Thu continue to look like the hottest through this forecast package as the upper ridge remains planted over the Four Four Corners region. This feature will push a weak cold front across the Northern Plains. Meanwhile at the surface, a cold front is expected to stretch generally along the KS-NE border and will sink south into the forecast area Fri night into Sat morning.
1040 PM CDT Mon Jun 14 2021 An upper level ridge was centered over AZ, CO and NM with an upper level trough centered over MI and NY. A weakening, dry cold front extends from OH west through northern MO.
/NEW/ /Today and Tonight/ A sprawling mid-level ridge remains over much of the western/central CONUS, which will keep hot weather in the forecast for the short-term period. Secondly, the NBM's bias correction may still be influenced by the relatively cooler temperatures we had during the first week or so of June.
1216 AM CDT Tue Jun 15 2021 The 06Z TAF period is expected to be pretty quiet, as the combined Oklahoma and Texas Panhandle sits under high pressure. Mid level high pressure system continues to anchor just east of the Four Corners Region with northerly H500 into the Panhandles. Warm and muggy conditions will continue with highs tomorrow in the low to mid 90s along with Td values ranging from the upper 50s to mid 60s.
The upper low will move through on Tuesday with another chance of showers and thunderstorms. High pressure returns for the rest of the week with dry weather and cooler temperatures. Skies and rain showers clear out tomorrow night as high pressure begins to move in. Cooler temperatures are also expected as lows will drop into the upper 40s and low 50s. High pressure will center itself over the Eastern U.
Surface observations show a trailing cold front currently located E-W across central East Tennessee along the I-40 corridor. This cold front is quickly moving south and is forecast to be south of the forecast area by 12z this morning. Behind the cold front, cooler and drier air will be advecting across the area with northerly winds. With surface ridging and dry air through the boundary layer, no precip is forecast today or tonight.
High pressure moving out of the NW is bringing drier air to the area. High temperatures remain in the low/mid 90s each day and heat indicies remain below advisory critera through at least midweek.
The airmass remains far too dry to generate any moist convection late this afternoon or early this evening beneath the strong high pressure dome which settled over the area this weekend. More heat is expected Tuesday with the high lingering over the region, and afternoon highs are likely to continue to break records with the hottest temperatures of the year expected. While Wednesday is expected to be the peak of the heat, temperatures will remain at or above the century mark for the lower desert valleys through the end of the work week, and generally 10-15 degrees above normal across the area.
At the surface, there is a developing lee trough over central Wyoming with high pressure over the Dakotas. Temperatures at 1 PM range from low 80s in the Hills to the low 90s over the plains. Upper ridge axis remains over the area on Tuesday, with dry conditions expected. Ridge axis shifts a bit east on Wednesday with a surface cold front sliding into the area, bringing some breezy northerly winds to the SD plains. The upper ridge over the area begins to break down later in the week, leading to more zonal flow across the Northern Plains.
350 AM CDT Tue Jun 15 2021 (Issued 350 AM CDT Tue Jun 15 2021) Today through Wednesday: High pressure will build into the area today into Wednesday, bringing generally quiet weather to southern Wisconsin. Still should see temps approach 80 away from Lake Michigan, with onshore winds keeping it several degrees cooler east.
This convection is in despite a very strong upper ridge in place across the Rockies. High temperatures should be a few degrees warmer than what occurs today. A dry cold front will push into northern Wyoming during the predawn hours Wednesday morning. The area of high pressure will start to flatten out a bit on Wednesday in response to a weak front pushing across the northernmost parts of Wyoming. Temperatures will be a little cooler, however still 10 to 15 degrees above normal. Conditions will remain dry as subsidence from the ridge continues to suppress any foreseeable activity.
400 AM EDT Tue Jun 15 2021 A cold front will cross the area tonight.
132 AM EDT Tue Jun 15 2021 Water vapor loop and RAP analysis shows an amplified mid-upper level pattern over the CONUS with a trough over the eastern Pacific and West Coast, ridging over the Intermountain West and Western Plains and a broad trough into the Great Lakes and ne CONUS. P early this afternoon, where dew points are highest (in the lower to mid 50s). Under mostly sunny skies and mixing to near 5 kft, max temps well inland from Lake Superior should get into the lower 70s.
A cold front is passing through the CWA at this hour, with low 50s dewpoints already working into our northern CWA behind the boundary. Cold front pushing south across Illinois and Indiana this afternoon is evident mainly in the sfc wind fields, with a decent post-frontal northerly wind surge. Progged low-level thicknesses and H8 temps support max temps as much as 10 degrees cooler than today in some spots.
648 AM EDT Tue Jun 15 2021 A cold front will cross the region this morning leading in drier air by Wednesday.
636 AM EDT Tue Jun 15 2021 A cold front will bring scattered thunderstorms today, some of which may be strong to severe. High pressure will build behind the front bringing a long stretch of near rain-free conditions. High amplitude upper level trough and associated surface cold front today is expected to be a weather maker, especially for this afternoon. As front pushes offshore, a local low pressure forms and the front will stall, keeping chances for showers and thunderstorms Wednesday near coastal communities. Dry northwesterly mid level flow through the period on the backside of a healthy trough over the Northeast.
527 AM EDT Tue Jun 15 2021 Satellite and obs show the secondary cold front quickly dropping across northern lower MI and central Lake Huron early this morning. Reinforcing shot of cooler air and mostly sunny afternoon skies increasing mixing depths cause a breezy afternoon/evening with gusts up to 20-25kts out of the north. The Great Lakes region will lie between a high amplitude ridge axis across central NOAM and a long wave trough from eastern Canada into the ern US over the next couple days. Gusty north winds off Lake Huron today combined with the cooler airmass will keep afternoon highs confined to the 60s across the thumb, with better mixing potential farther inland supporting highs into the 70s. Some airmass modification on Wednesday under full sun will support slightly warmer afternoon highs.
701 AM EDT Tue Jun 15 2021 An upper low will move across the area today, bringing a period of showers and a few thunderstorms.
709 AM EDT Tue Jun 15 2021 Aviation - Dry and seasonably warm air today and Wednesday - Warmer, increasing moisture, chance of storms late week -- Dry and seasonably warm air today and Wednesday -- North flow will continue to advect drier air into Michigan.
(Today and tonight) A strong upper ridge will be centered over the Four Corners region the next 24 hours.
The weather pattern will dry out through midweek as a large area of high pressure builds southeast from the Great Lakes. This weather feature will bring noticeably cooler nights and less humidity.
A strong ridge of high pressure will result in excessive heat through much of the week. This high pressure centered over the four corners region will help more mid-level moisture to increase across the area with the prospects of daily isolated mainly dry thunderstorms. No significant changes to the forecast on the morning update as high pressure aloft results in excessive heat across the region through this weekend.
922 AM EDT Tue Jun 15 2021 A passing weak trough may spawn a few showers and thunderstorms south of I-70 and along the ridges this afternoon.
High pressure at the surface will continue to bring dry and cooler conditions to the area today. Cold front has pushed through the area this morning with a mostly clear sky and VFR conditions expected to prevail at all TAF sites through the period. JB Chattanooga Airport, TN 87 63 85 61 86 / 0 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 84 61 81 58 83 / 0 0 10 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 83 60 82 57 83 / 0 0 10 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 80 56 78 50 80 / 0 0 10 0 0.
An upper level ridge will continue to intensify over the western United States. Compressional heating ahead of an approaching cold front along with mostly sunny skies will result in high temperatures in the low 100s in southwest Nebraska and parts of north central Nebraska. There appears to be a possibility for isolated thunderstorms this evening in western Nebraska along the periphery of the upper level ridge. The environment in the Panhandle will have dew points in the low 60s and MLCAPE upwards of 2500 J/kg. As for Wednesday, some models suggest additional thunderstorm along the advancing cold front in the evening as it moves into the area. Still kept low end POPs in the forecast for Wednesday evening as the cold front should be suitable as a lifting mechanism and an upper level disturbance moves east across the northern Great Plains.
However expect more sct to possibly bkn cu to develop as we remain in vicinity of low level thermal trof. Kavinsky (Issued 350 AM CDT Tue Jun 15 2021) Today through Wednesday: High pressure will build into the area today into Wednesday, bringing generally quiet weather to southern Wisconsin. Still should see temps approach 80 away from Lake Michigan, with onshore winds keeping it several degrees cooler east.
923 AM EDT Tue Jun 15 2021 A cold front will bring scattered thunderstorms today, some of which may be strong to severe. High pressure will build behind the front bringing a long stretch of near rain-free conditions. High amplitude upper level trough and associated surface cold front today is expected to be a weather maker, especially for this afternoon. As front pushes offshore, a local low pressure forms and the front will stall, keeping chances for showers and thunderstorms Wednesday near coastal communities. Dry northwesterly mid level flow through the period on the backside of a healthy trough over the Northeast.
652 AM CDT Tue Jun 15 2021 Our weather continues to be dominated by the stout mid level high centered over the Four Corners and accompanying high amplitude ridge across the west central CONUS. Highs today and tomorrow will range from the low to mid 90s for the vast majority of the region (upper 80s across northeast MO) with subsidence keeping skies clear.
920 AM CDT Tue Jun 15 2021 Some relief from the summertime humidity is on the way thanks to a dry cold front that is currently pushing through the area. There will still be plenty of sunshine, but afternoon highs will peak in the mid to upper 80s -- and with the lower RH values, it may actually feel a degree or two cooler than that. The TN Valley remains wedged between increasing ridging aloft over the Four Corners region and troughing along the Atlantic Coastline.
651 AM CDT Tue Jun 15 2021 For the 15/12Z TAF period, VFR conditions should largely prevail this period as high pressure will dominate at the sfc and aloft. Heat indices will range from 105-109 degrees in the advisory area while locations farther north will generally remain in the lower triple-digits while high temperatures push the mid to upper 90s once again this afternoon. Another warm and muggy night will follow with overnight lows in the lower to mid 70s while we await another weak cold front backdooring its way south into the region. With that in mind, have trended highs on Wednesday in line with the NBM versus the cooler MOS guidance numbers which don't seem all that likely at this point given what we've seen recently, especially if this next front struggles to make as much southward progress into the area.
423 AM MDT Tue Jun 15 2021 Hot and dry conditions will persist Tuesday as the large upper ridge remains firmly in place over the Rockies. Skies should be mostly clear of clouds through the day, but we may experience an increase in haze due to smoke from multiple fires to our south and west, which is flowing through the ridge to Colorado. Recent RAP and HRRR Smoke runs suggest that the higher concentrations of the plume will move over the mountains in the afternoon and evening and may affect the plains by Tuesday night. The large high pressure ridge will remain across the 4 corners region on Wednesday with continued hot temperatures and possibly more record breaking heat.
Models agree surface front will be south of the forecast area, with limited moisture available through much of the forecast period, but with some upper energy rotating around the base of the elongated trough, could see isolated convection fire mainly over central Georgia this afternoon and evening.
1021 AM EDT Tue Jun 15 2021 A mostly dry cold front will move south through the region this afternoon.
High pressure aloft will build across the area from the four corners region during the last half of the week, bringing triple digit interior heat for the latter portion of this week. An upper trough just offshore the Pacific NW coast will fill and weaken as it ejects NE today. Mid and high clouds are spreading NE over the extreme N portion of the area in association with the aforementioned trough. Significant warming is forecast for the interior toward the latter portion of the week as an upper ridge over the 4-corners region expands NW over N California.
Synoptically, 500 mb ridge continues to dominate the western US with daytime temperatures today reaching into the 90s and low 100s for many. Elevated moisture east of the Laramie Range will be available for possible convective initiation if the low level capping inversion can be eroded away. Wednesday remains on the warm side with daytime highs a few degrees cooler as a cold front passes through the region eroding a bit of the ridge but not much overall relief from these above- normal temperatures.
805 AM EDT Tue Jun 15 2021 A cold front will move through the area this morning through early afternoon.
704 AM CDT Tue Jun 15 2021 Satellite imagery indicated a longwave trough across the eastern half of the nation this morning with an amplified ridge over the Rockies, and extending northward into the Canadian Prairies. At the surface, high pressure is in control and will remain in control through tonight with dry conditions and an easterly flow. This flow will become southeast Wednesday which is in response to a powerful storm system moving inland over the Pacific Northwest today, and allows for a cold front/trough of low pressure to develop and move across the Northern Plains.
Better chances will be in the eastern counties, but the high resolution models are highlighting varying coverage across the I-35 corridor and Hill Country.
452 AM PDT Tue Jun 15 2021 Today will be cooler and locally breezy with a chance of showers and thunderstorms.
955 AM CDT Tue Jun 15 2021 As of 9:45 AM CDT, temperatures are continuing upward at an anticipated rate with dew points in the low-70s in most of the Ark-La-Tex. /issued 651 AM CDT Tue Jun 15 2021/ For the 15/12Z TAF period, VFR conditions should largely prevail this period as high pressure will dominate at the sfc and aloft.
/issued 352 AM CDT Tue Jun 15 2021/ SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday): The 500mb ridge continues to weaken locally as low pressure builds across the western Gulf of Mexico. Temperatures will top off near to slightly below normal today and likely a degree or two cooler tomorrow with increased cloud cover or potential showers.
320 AM MDT Tue Jun 15 2021 Early morning upper level analysis has large ridge across the central CONUS, with deep trof off the West Coast. At the surface, high pressure is located across the the Dakotas with lee trof developing across central Montana and Wyoming. Upper ridge axis will reside across the Northern Plains today. Strong upper low moving across central Canada will flatten the central CONUS ridge, allowing for slightly cooler temperatures on Wednesday.
Moist and unstable flow aloft associated with a broad trough offshore will continue to move onshore through the day today. High pressure will take over the pattern later in the week for a warming and drying trend through the weekend.
Today Through Wednesday Night An upper level high pressure system continues over New Mexico and Colorado and continues to strengthen. This high will provide a northwest flow aloft for Arkansas through Wednesday night. A weak cold front will move southwest through the state today. Lows tonight and Wednesday night will be in the mid 60s to the lower 70s.
/issued 314 AM CDT Tue Jun 15 2021/ A backdoor cold front will continue to move through the Mid-South this morning. Highs may be slightly cooler as well, but still expect readings in the mid 80s to lower 90s today.
623 AM CDT Tue Jun 15 2021 (Today and tonight) A strong upper ridge will be centered over the Four Corners region the next 24 hours.
622 AM CDT Tue Jun 15 2021 High pressure will filter into the state behind a weak cold front today. Today Through Wednesday Night An upper level high pressure system continues over New Mexico and Colorado and continues to strengthen. This high will provide a northwest flow aloft for Arkansas through Wednesday night. A weak cold front will move southwest through the state today. Lows tonight and Wednesday night will be in the mid 60s to the lower 70s.
A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms is forecast each afternoon, especially over the high terrain. A strong high pressure system in the mid to upper levels was centered over the Four Corners early this morning with models showing the high remaining in place through Wednesday.