Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
509 PM MDT Sat Sep 16 2017 A large trough seen on water vapor images over MT/WY will move past the CWA this evening. Thus, only expect frost to be patchy, with the Pine Ridge area likely the coldest. Models are then in very good agreement with warmer and drier weather for Sunday.
632 PM CDT Sat Sep 16 2017 A cold front raced across the local area this morning and has since stalled from eastern Nebraska into portions of central Kansas. Expect this cooler airmass to linger across the region through at least tomorrow. limiting them primarily to the eastern fringes of the local area and closer to the cold front. did trend towards the cooler side of guidance as clouds and any showers from the high plains are not expect to impact much of the local area until close to dawn.
High pressure at the surface and ridging aloft will remain in place across the Lower Ohio Valley through the remainder of the weekend.
815 PM MDT Sat Sep 16 2017 An upper level trof of low pressure will exit the region tonight.
A weak upper level trough extending from the southern Mid-Atlantic states to the northeast Gulf of Mexico, and an upper level ridge extending from the northeast gulf northward to southern Illinois will both shift slightly eastward through the near term. Low temperatures tonight will be in the lower 70s.
1010 PM MDT Sat Sep 16 2017 Main forecast issues will be the chance of precipitation followed by high cool to make the high temperatures through tomorrow. If cloud cover does not increase as fast as I think it will, the low temperatures will need to be lowered from what I have in there.
Have finally started to see some isolated showers develop across the higher elevations of PA, with more coverage a bit farther east towards the central portion of the state. A persistence forecast should play out over the next 24 hours: clouds dissipate after sunset; fog develops, primarily in river valleys; a brief clear period during the morning, and diurnal cumulus forms with isolated showers in the ridges again.
The airmass over the RGV remains pretty dry and stable as 500 mb ridging prevails over the region throughout much of the upcoming TAF period. Lows will be in the mid 70s, with highs from the lower 90s east to near the century mark west, with mid to upper 80s at the beaches.
734 PM EDT Sat Sep 16 2017 A large ridge of high pressure will dominate our weather for much of the upcoming 7 days.
Lows are on track to fall into the 70s across the area as winds become light with high pressure well to the north. No headlines expected through mid-next-week with weak ridging in place across the area.
As for temperatures, lows tonight around 70 and highs tomorrow, mainly in the lower to mid 90s, look good.
It will again persist the longest ahead of the weak mid-level trough that will be pushing into the SE portions of the area by late afternoon.
Tomorrow through tomorrow night appears to stay dry across the forecast area as northeasterly low-level flow pushes the stable airmass deeper to the west and south and weak upper ridging tries to build in from the south and west.
Clear skies overnight may produce patchy fog with the lowest visibility occurring at KTRI Sunday morning.
Concur with the GFS/NAM/ECMWF deterministic prediction of the upper ridge quasi-stationary and centered over the NWRN Gulf of Mexico/SRN Texas during the period, while upper disturbances move across the Rockies/Plains.
610 PM MDT Sat Sep 16 2017 Updated Aviation An upper level trof of low pressure will exit the region tonight.
-Wolcott- 208 PM PDT Sat Sep 16 2017 Satellite loop showed scattered flat cumulus developing over the higher terrain this afternoon, mainly from the Mojave Preserve through the Clark County mountains to northern Mohave County, with clear skies elsewhere.
While these winds should keep the potential for frost down in the cooler western zones, some wind sheltered locations might see some patchy frost.
1137 PM EDT Sat Sep 16 2017 A large ridge of high pressure will dominate our weather for much of the upcoming 7 days.
702 PM EDT Sat Sep 16 2017 A deep layer ridge will bring continued pleasant and unseasonably warm conditions to the North Country during the next 5 to 7 days.
Some concern for MVFR cigs at KGUY and KDHT behind the cold front late tonight into Sunday afternoon, have continued with this at both terminal sites during this time period. Instability will start out pretty limited of around 1500 J/kg mainly across the eastern zones, but this is expected to change as the cold front pushes through tonight.
1043 PM MDT Sat Sep 16 2017 A large trough seen on water vapor images over MT/WY will move past the CWA this evening. Thus, only expect frost to be patchy, with the Pine Ridge area likely the coldest. Models are then in very good agreement with warmer and drier weather for Sunday.
At the same time, a cold front will steadily advance south through the remainder of southeast NE and southwest IA, ushering a cooler and drier air mass into the region. Precipitation will end from north to south tonight and the majority of Sunday looks to remain dry as high pressure builds through the area.
849 PM MDT Sat Sep 16 2017 Departing upper trof over the northern high plains but are seeing some weak ascent noted with associated jet streak with the trof. Forecast/guidance temps about 5 degrees warmer than today look good.
These clouds combined with the added low level moisture from the rainfall should keep temperatures a bit warmer tonight.
Tonight and Sunday Southerly flow ahead of an approaching cold front brought much warmer than normal temperatures and 60s dew points into the forecast area. The cold front and a mid level short wave will bring showers and thunderstorms to the area tonight into Sunday morning. Cooler temperatures are in store for Sunday in the wake of the front, but they should still be above normal. Sunday Night Through Saturday Temperatures will briefly cool down early in the work week behind a departing cold front.
A trough north of the area will bring several degrees of cooling and gusty winds at times early in the work week. High pressure will then slowly push temperatures back well above average later in the week. As a ridge amplifies off the west coast, a system will dig into the northern plains and intermountain west today.
417 AM EDT Sun Oct 8 2017 A weak cold front will bring showers to the region tonight and early Sunday. Deepening trough over the Rockies and ridge over the western Atlantic will direct remnants of rapidly weakening and quickly moving Hurricane Nate northward up the western side of the Appalachians before tracking across PA on Mon. These showers are out ahead of a cold front. As far as the timing of the front, the worst restrictions will likely be between 08Z to 12Z in the NW, and 11Z-18Z in the SE as the cold front arrives and showers will be most- widespread.
1050 PM PDT Sat Oct 7 2017 Cooler and windy Sunday with increased fire weather danger. The MFR-RDD gradient has increased to over 11 mbs and only the formation of the radiative inversion is saving the lower elevations of mainly Shasta Co (zones 13,63) from experiencing much wind at this time. JHM A trough of low pressure will move into the Great Basin on Sunday and will result in windy conditions for the Sacramento valley.
524 AM EDT Sun Oct 8 2017 A weak cold front will bring showers through midday. A rich plume of subtropical moisture pooled along and ahead of a cold front crossing the region this morning will produce a several hour period of light to moderate showers. These showers are out ahead of a cold front. As far as the timing of the front, the worst restrictions will likely be between 08Z to 12Z in the NW, and 11Z-18Z in the SE as the cold front arrives and showers will be most- widespread.
CC A cold front will bring cooler temperatures to much of the forecast area Sunday. Lingering moisture behind a passing cold front will continue to bring areas of clouds and scattered rain and snow showers through tonight. with the lower flight categories coming across the southwest. This activity is associated with a strong westerly jet stream aloft, combined with a cold front advancing into the area from north to south. Jet stream winds aloft are decreasing as the parent upper level low pulls well away to the east. Temperatures turn quite a bit cooler behind the front, with northerly flow aloft on Sunday.
433 AM MDT Sun Oct 8 2017 Upper level analysis has a large trof digging through the northern Rockies. At the surface, the cold front has moved through the entire CWA, with winds out of the west to northwest. Upper trough will continue to dig south along the spine of the Rockies, with the main energy of this system remaining just to the west and south of the area. The upper trof will continue to shift east on Monday, with very light precipitation ending during the morning across far south central SD. Clear and cold conditions are expected Monday night, with freezing temperatures across the entire area. Upper ridging takes over for mid week with mostly sunny skies expected and temperatures rebounding into the 60s by midweek. Another strong trof will develop across the Pacific Northwest later in the week.
Upper level short wave passes north of the forecast area this morning, along with a surface cold front pushing west to east across our area. Expect partial clearing areawide from WSW- ENE following cold frontal passage this morning. Lows Sunday night generally in the low-mid 50s.
158 AM EDT Sun Oct 8 2017 Aviation A cold front cross Lake Michigan this evening will produce a line of showers and thunderstorms, some of which may produce winds to 50-60 mph. Winds will diminish and skies will clear later tonight as high pressure builds into the region. Highs in the 70s are expected through Monday before cooler air moves over the state. A cold front currently stretches from northeast Iowan south into Missouri.
324 AM MDT Sun Oct 8 2017 Sharp upper trough will dig into the southern Rockies today then kick out across the central Plains on Monday. Cold front will initially move through today, but push of coldest air will come tonight, with a brief period of gusty north winds possible.
However, as is often the case with transitioning tropical cyclones, narrow bands of more intense rainfall are embedded within the larger moderate rain shield, which in this case, could drop 3-5" on a localized basis. Obviously, we'll continue to monitor the progress of Nate closely over the next couple of days, as it comes ashore this evening, then moves inland and gradually transitions to a mid- latitude cyclone in its northeastward trek. A cold front will cross the area early this morning bringing a period of MVFR/Alternate required conditions between 09Z-14Z due to ceilings and showers.
A weakening low pressure system will approach from the west today. Southerly winds ahead of this low will bring mild temperatures to the area once again, with high temps well above average values for the second week of October. The low will drag a cold front into the forecast area tonight. Medium Southwest flow will dominate in the upper levels over Wisconsin as a sharp trough over the intermountain west moves into the Great Plains and deepens.
Latest 00z models show a deepening upper trough over the western U. Radiative cooling will lead to cold temperatures with overnight lows falling below freezing for most of northeast Montana. Temperatures will rebound into the 50s on Monday with a developing light south wind, though remain below average with the upper trough remaining an influence across the region.
The highest wind swatch will move over northwest Georgia, northwest of the Atlanta area, where a few wind gusts could reach 50 mph, especially on the mountain tops and ridges. The stronger pressure gradient orientation is supportive on the east and SE side of the low center. 5 inches are providing a very efficient regime for precip and the Flash Flood Watch mentioned in the short term (mainly for 3-5 inches, possibly 6-7 in a few higher terrain locations) should extend until 12z Monday though could be extended as we stay with an enhanced moisture field and exposed to upper impulses traversing the remnant longwave trough.
Initial cold front is pushing across Huron, taking widespread precip with it. Secondary cold front will exit ne lower MI by 12Z. The Nam is of course sometimes (often?) overly moist in the low levels, and that is certainly the case with the ongoing event.
345 AM MDT Sun Oct 8 2017 A cold front will bring cooler temperatures to the forecast area today.
1129 PM MDT Sat Oct 7 2017 06Z TAF CYCLE Gradually increasing wly flow aloft over NM thru with sfc lee trough deepning thru 09/00Z. A much cooler airmass will arrive Monday as a storm system shifts south into New Mexico from Colorado.
1150 PM MDT Sat Oct 7 2017 The high wind warning for south/east central areas has been allowed to expire. Strong west flow aloft will be ahead of an incoming Pacific cold front and low pressure trough. As the cold front approaches later tonight, light snow showers will develop across the north. Winds will shift to the north northeast and gradually decrease behind the cold front. Snowfall amounts of an inch or two in the lower elevations locally up to 3 inches in the foothills can be expected with 3 to 6 inches in the mountains with areas of 5 to 8 inches above 9500 feet possible in the Wind River, Bighorn mountains and Casper mountain.
519 AM EDT Sun Oct 8 2017 A weak cold front will bring showers to the region tonight and early Sunday. A rich plume of subtropical moisture pooled along and ahead of a cold front crossing the region this morning will produce a several hour period of light to moderate showers. These showers are out ahead of a cold front. As far as the timing of the front, the worst restrictions will likely be between 08Z to 12Z in the NW, and 11Z-18Z in the SE as the cold front arrives and showers will be most- widespread.
413 AM CDT Sun Oct 8 2017 Hot temperatures return today before a strong cold front brings the coldest conditions of the season so far. Meanwhile, unseasonably cold air will gather behind a strong cold front expected to enter the TX Panhandle late tonight. High temperatures will likely be reached around noon before cooler air filters in later in the day.
While model soundings do not look ideal for mountain waves, there is still some risk and also given stronger winds at 3000+ feet will go ahead and upgrade the high wind watch to a warning.
A warm front moves north of the region early this morning.
621 AM EDT Sun Oct 8 2017 A weak cold front will bring showers through midday. A rich plume of subtropical moisture pooled along and ahead of a cold front crossing the region this morning will produce a several hour period of light to moderate showers. These showers are out ahead of a cold front. As far as the timing of the front, the worst restrictions will likely be between 08Z to 12Z in the NW, and 11Z-18Z in the SE as the cold front arrives and showers will be most- widespread.
317 AM CDT Sun Oct 8 2017 A return to southerly flow will allow for steady warm-up and moistening ahead of upper trough and stronger cold front, currently progd for Monday afternoon through Monday night. This will be associated with thermal trough Monday night as it sweeps eastward over Kansas and northern portions of Oklahoma.
139 AM EDT Sun Oct 8 2017 Cold front approaches tonight, with gusty wind and showers. Made some minor timing tweaks, but the overnight forecast is generally on track, with the frontal boundary expected to reach the eastern ridges around 12Z.
325 AM PDT Sun Oct 8 2017 A dry cold front will usher in much cooler temperatures along with gusty winds today.
Attention then turns to the snow event as a strong cold front moves across the CWA Sunday while an upper trough/low dig southward into Wyoming and Utah. Models remain in good agreement in ending pcpn Monday morning as the upper low reaches the Co/NM border area. Heaviest snow will be Sunday night with amounts still looking to be in a 4-7 inch range over the high plains of se WY and up to a foot over the mtns.
340 AM PDT Sun Oct 8 2017 Cooler and windy today into tonight with increased fire weather danger. Upper ridging amplifying off the West Coast today as upper troughing digs into the Great Basin. In addition, synoptic cooling and low level CAA will result in high temperatures upwards of 10 degrees cooler today. Breezy conditions elsewhere will help to keep warmer minimum temperatures overnight. Increased subsidence will result in slight warming tomorrow with Central Valley highs in the lower 80s.
1058 PM PDT Sat Oct 7 2017 An exiting cold front will continue to keep breezy conditions across the Columbia Basin and and a few lingering showers over the Idaho Panhandle. The atmosphere behind the cold front is rather unstable and this will result in scattered showers across portions of the Inland Northwest through Sunday.
619 AM EDT Sun Oct 8 2017 Rain showers expected with cold front stalling over our area today. Radar images continue to show convection ahead of the approaching cold front affecting southeast OH and portions of WV.
1201 AM CDT Sun Oct 8 2017 Line of showers continue to progress east with the cold front. Believe there is some potential for patchy fog to develop in the low lying areas where wind can decouple toward daybreak Sunday morning. CVKING The combination of a quasi stationary cold front and the remnants of Hurricane Nate will bring cloudiness over southeast Missouri and southwestern Illinois Sunday night into Monday.
340 AM CDT Sun Oct 8 2017 An upper level trough across the Pacific Northwest early this morning will dig southeast into the four corners region by 12Z Mon. A downstream upper level ridge will amplify across the eastern conus through the period. Tonight, as the upper trough approaches the four corners region, high clouds will gradually spread east across the state late Tonight. Overnight lows will drop into the lower 50s across the northern counties with mid 50s across the central and southern counties.
A cold front will cross the area early this morning bringing a period of mainly light showers to the entire forecast area.
This will lead to scattered to numerous showers and a few thunderstorms today into this evening with the highest rain chances shifting from the coast to inland areas as the day progresses. Convection will wind down over land this evening, but continue scattered across the coastal waters into Levy county as the flow shifts to southeast from south to north during the night thanks Nate moving well away from the area and high pressure beginning to rebuild in from the east. Some relatively drier air will also begin to move in from the east during late tonight and Monday as ridging builds over Florida in the mid and upper levels.
402 AM CDT Sun Oct 8 2017 A cold front will move eastward across the forecast area early today. Tonight, northern stream short wave trough moves into central and western ND by late at night, with a southern stream trough near the four corners area. For lows, liked the way some of the bias corrected values as well as the GEM picked up on warmer readings than previous forecasts along and west of I 29 due to thick cloud cover.
Today Through Monday A cold front has made its way into the state during the day, extending along a line from roughly Salem to Clinton to Hot Springs to Texarkana as of 2 pm. Quite the difference will be seen in overnight temps with the cooler/drier air in pace across the W/NW and warm/moist air in place across the SE. Should see rain chances depart the region to the northeast by Sunday evening, as it rounds the mid level ridge off the SE coast.
Light northerly winds today will slowly turn back out of the south by tonight in advance of an approaching upper level trough (the same one that will absorb Nate in about 24 hours). Plenty of atmospheric moisture will allow for scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms to develop on Monday with the greatest chance of rain being across acadiana due to even more moisture wrapping around an upper level ridge off the eastern US. Guidance has been back and forth as to the evolution of the frontal system associated with the aforementioned trough and this morning's guidance remains just as inconsistent.
Snow has been mixing in along some of our foothill locations like Red Lodge overnight with falling precipitation and weak upslope flow allowing temperatures to drop into the lower 30s. Shower chances will continue today across much of the area as cyclonic flow remains over the region and weak upslope flow persists in the lower levels. Showers will be on the decrease this evening as an upper ridge moves inland over the Pac NW causing heights to rise and advecting drier air over the region.
A robust cold front is moving through Nevada this morning bringing winds and colder temperatures.
Winds will be from the northwest this afternoon shifting to the southwest by this evening as a trough of low pressure develops across eastern Colorado. Lows tonight are progged to range from the low-mid 40s across west central Kansas to low 50s across south central Kansas. This is due to the area of low pressure strengthening across southeastern Colorado with a cold front entering northwest Kansas. This upper level low will then move across the Central High Plains Monday night. Precipitation chances then increase across the remainder of the CWA Monday night as the cold front passes through the area.
357 AM CDT Sun Oct 8 2017 A strong upper level disturbance and associated cold front will traverse the high plains region Sunday night into Monday night.
652 AM EDT Sun Oct 8 2017 A warm front moves north of the region early this morning.
SHORT TERM (Today through Monday): The Western Gulf and South Texas will be under a broad cyclonic flow in wake of recently downgraded Tropical Storm Nate and an upper ridge near Baja California.
The strongest cold front of the season thus far is still on track for Monday morning. The main impacts from this front will be strong winds in the wake and much cooler temperatures.
In wake of the tropical system, a cold front was moving slowly across Southern Arkansas and Northwest Louisiana and into East Texas. Drier air associated with the frontal boundary was spreading across the Northwest sections of the area with dew points in the lower to middle sixties as well as drier air in the middle and upper levels associated with the trough of low pressure swinging across the area. Will see continued near to slightly above normal daytime temperatures today and and tomorrow, but with cooler overnight readings due to the lower dew points, drier air and clearing skies for most locations.
307 AM CDT Sun Oct 8 2017 Nate has finally made landfall along the Gulf Coast this morning and while we have experienced a fairly drastic change in airmass (dew points in the low 70s), rainfall totals so far have been relatively low.
1113 PM MDT Sat Oct 7 2017 Weak upper ridging sits atop the CWA with mostly sunny skies as the area is inbetween storm systems. The next system will be an upper trough digging into the western CONUS tonight into Sunday morning. Clear skies are expected across most areas this evening, but clouds will increase from north to south as a cold front pushes into the area. Upper trough will deepen over the western CONUS Sunday with forcing aloft increasing as a series of waves cross the area. Precip will be done Monday morning as high pressure builds in.
354 AM EDT Sun Oct 8 2017 The latest surface map features a stalling surface cold front draped across northern Kentucky, with Hurricane Nate making its way across southeastern Mississippi. Aloft, an upper level ridge is parked across the western Atlantic, with a short wave trough accelerating northeast across the eastern Great Lakes, while broader troughing takes shape across the Continental Divide. The highest rainfall amounts still look to be along the I-64 corridor, where around three and a half inches could be seen when all is said and done. Highs today will be in the low to mid 70s, with lows tonight in the mid to upper 60s, likely testing some maximum low temperature records. The low pressure associated with the remnants of Nate will have progressed well northeast of the region to begin the period.