Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1012 PM EDT Sun May 1 2022 Moisture wrapping around filling low pressure across western upper Michigan continues to kick off plenty of clouds and some sprinkles/very light showers across the Northwoods this evening. All those clouds will keep temperatures from falling too much, with readings by morning mostly in the lower and middle 40s. Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Vertically stacked low pressure sits across northern Wisconsin with an occluded front essentially draped from near TVC southeastward toward Gladwin. This boundary will continue to shift north across the forecast area through this evening while the low pressure center drifts to north-central Ontario by 12z Monday.
844 PM EDT Sun May 1 2022 A few showers may occur Sunday night behind a cold front.
A cold front will sweep southeastward across the region late tonight and aid in a period of beneficial rainfall.
1043 PM EDT Sun May 1 2022 High pressure will remain off the Southeast coast for the next few days with temperatures rising above normal.
620 PM CDT Sun May 1 2022 (Through tonight ) Dry and stable airmass resides over the area this afternoon, but moisture surging north quickly across the high plains to our west in response to upper low moving across the Great Basin. Resulting convection across TX/OK panhandle region early this evening will continue to expand overnight, primarily north of warm front as low level jet/ warm advection pattern becomes established. Higher confidence remains in storms developing along surging cold front late Monday evening across northeast OK and northwest AR, with possible MCS development and enhanced severe wind threat.
1037 PM EDT Sun May 1 2022 High pressure and drier conditions will build into the region tonight into Monday.
938 PM EDT Sun May 1 2022 A few showers may occur Sunday night behind a cold front.
601 PM CDT Sun May 1 2022 Low pressure centered over Wisconsin is creating a tight pressure gradient over the Mid Mississippi Valley this afternoon. The gradient will weaken tonight as a short wave trough moves from eastern Nevada across the Rockies into Colorado, and forces low level cyclogenesis. The low will move from eastern Colorado across Kansas into Missouri by Monday night. Return flow ahead of the low will bring another slug of moist and unstable air back into Missouri and Illinois by late Monday into Monday night resulting in another round of showers and thunderstorms for the region.
756 PM EDT Sun May 1 2022 High pressure and drier conditions will build into the region tonight into Monday.
A cold front remains draped over northwest Alabama this afternoon, but will make very little progress through the rest of the area. The aforementioned cold front will sweep through the area during the overnight hours, with drier and cooler air filtering into the area. This will help overnight lows fall into the lower to mid 50s by daybreak on Monday. An upper trough and closed low will move into the Plains on Monday, with a weak ridge building over the TN Valley. Ahead of this, the cold front that moves through overnight will lift northward, with southerly flow returning moisture into the region.
1013 PM EDT Sun May 1 2022 A cold front moves across today with strong to severe storms possible. Thinking that we will not have too worry much for anymore convection really other than possibly along the mountains for the next several hours as the cold front sweeps through. Showers and thunderstorms will continue to be possible this afternoon into the evening hours as a cold front pushes eastward through the region. Drier air will move into the region behind the cold front with a high pressure system building in tonight and Monday. This high will provide dry weather with seasonable temperatures.
Clear skies will start the day but an approaching upper trough will cause clouds to move back in starting by midday and becoming more widespread through the rest of the day. Storms will move in from the west near midnight and expand eastward by daybreak as the warm front lifts northwards. Much of central Indiana will sit in the warm sector through the morning hours while the low itself tracks through the northern half of the state while storms are expected to continue. For the afternoon and evening, some stronger storms could become embedded ahead of and along the cold front that should enter the forecast area by the afternoon.
Weak high pressure will move across the area tonight.
Tonight will see high pressure ridge move in but 850 mb winds take their time til Tues AM to turn more east and then southeast.
The eastern low will move northeast with the trough axis passing across the area tonight. Weakening low pressure will continue to its slow exit today into Ontario as shower activity ends across the region. There might be some lingering drizzle in the morning, but overall, expect things to dry out from west to east through the morning as weak ridging builds in. A weak cold front will swing through tonight while a low to the south lifts toward the lower Great Lakes.
145 AM EDT Mon May 2 2022 High pressure and drier conditions will build into the region tonight into Monday.
1039 PM CDT Sun May 1 2022 Low pressure centered over Wisconsin is creating a tight pressure gradient over the Mid Mississippi Valley this afternoon. The gradient will weaken tonight as a short wave trough moves from eastern Nevada across the Rockies into Colorado, and forces low level cyclogenesis. The low will move from eastern Colorado across Kansas into Missouri by Monday night. Return flow ahead of the low will bring another slug of moist and unstable air back into Missouri and Illinois by late Monday into Monday night resulting in another round of showers and thunderstorms for the region.
Overnight water vapor satellite imagery showed an upper level low over the central Rockies with another system along the Pacific Northwest coast.
This low will move across the OK/TX Panhandle later this morning as the mid-level trough swings into the Central Plains. This will switch winds around to the north and bring cooler air back to the region with overnight lows dropping into the middle 30s across the southwestern Panhandle to upper 40s across the Rolling Plains.
153 AM EDT Mon May 2 2022 A few showers may occur Sunday night behind a cold front.
355 AM CDT Mon May 2 2022 (Issued 355 AM CDT Mon May 2 2022) Today and Tonight: Weak high pressure will quickly build into the Great Lakes Region today.
125 AM EDT Mon May 2 2022 High pressure builds briefly today.
1155 PM CDT Sun May 1 2022 High pressure will move into the Midwest tonight and Monday, bringing quiet weather and cool temperatures.
Imagery also shows scattered high clouds across the rest of the forecast area, with a larger expanse of mid and high level clouds upstream due to an upper trough over the Rockies.
An upper low over the Great Lakes will continue to progress eastward removing lingering stratus clouds from the James River Valley this afternoon. A surface pressure trough across the central portion of the state is going to progress eastward veering winds out of the southeast by this evening. Ridging will continue to build in over eastern Montana resulting in subsidence aloft and a strengthening LLTR. Overnight lows are forecast to increase above freezing for the central and western North Dakota tomorrow.
Low level ridge remains anchored across the western Atlantic, which is maintaining an east to southeast flow across the Florida Keys. Meanwhile, aloft, an elongated but fractured trough sits just off the eastern coast of the U. The low level ridge over the western Atlantic will be bombarded over the coming days by an active upper level pattern as multiple ridge/trough couplets slide east across the U.
A shift in the synoptic pattern is expected with a new disturbance developing east of the Rockies and ejecting into the central Plains after 12Z; high pressure will shift into the Ohio River Valley.
1143 PM EDT Sun May 1 2022 Moisture wrapping around filling low pressure across western upper Michigan continues to kick off plenty of clouds and some sprinkles/very light showers across the Northwoods this evening. All those clouds will keep temperatures from falling too much, with readings by morning mostly in the lower and middle 40s. Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Vertically stacked low pressure sits across northern Wisconsin with an occluded front essentially draped from near TVC southeastward toward Gladwin. This boundary will continue to shift north across the forecast area through this evening while the low pressure center drifts to north-central Ontario by 12z Monday.
Rain moves back in late tonight with northward advancing warm front. Discussion: Upper ridging will build into the region today in advance of the next disturbance moving through the central/southern plains. Highs should reach into the low 80s for many spots in the TN valley, and even the upper 70s to near 80 in the low elevations in southwest Virginia. Downstream, the cold front that pushed south of us yesterday, will lift back north as a warm front tonight. The GFS continues to be much quicker with the warm front lifting north this evening, and is also much more aggressive with precip coverage.
Showers have dissipated, but with what is left of the dissipating front still pushing through still cannot rule out a few isolated showers mainly east over the next few hours, so will keep the low PoPs east with only minor changes. Warm front will be lifting north towards KCHA by late in the period. CD Chattanooga Airport, TN 83 63 86 64 83 / 10 20 20 60 50 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 80 60 86 64 80 / 0 20 20 60 50 Oak Ridge, TN 80 59 85 63 80 / 0 20 30 60 50 Tri Cities Airport, TN 77 55 83 61 77 / 0 10 40 50 60.
423 AM EDT Mon May 2 2022 High pressure builds briefly today.
This raises uncertainty on guidance depiction of the warm frontal advance through the first part of the day, however the moisture quality currently in place south of the warm front does raise confidence in a corridor of rapid warm sector recovery by late afternoon. Any storms that can develop in vicinity of the lifting warm front through the afternoon would pose a severe weather risk. Forecast soundings suggest multiple vertical zones of rather weak storm relative winds which may limit duration of sustained cells, and when coupled with an expected surging cold front by early evening, a transition toward more linear storm mode is likely.
A mid level ridge will progress over the local area through this afternoon, then begins to break down this evening as a short wave trough approaches from the west. 6 in), mid level subsidence from the ridge will limit convection to mainly isolated showers and storms in the mid afternoon increasing to scattered in the late afternoon and evening where the sea breeze boundaries collide between the US 301 and I-75 corridors.
Look for cloud cover to expand further westward after daybreak, as an upper level trough and Colorado Low edge closer to the region. Will likely see showers begin along the MO River Valley by mid-morning, with a few locations across south central SD perhaps seeing a rain/snow mix initially as temperatures hover near freezing. Otherwise, look for rain to gradually diminish overnight as the aforementioned low pressure continues its journey eastward across the central CONUS. So, for now, have overnight lows ranging from the low 30s in these locations to mid to upper 30s elsewhere. Can't rule out the possibility of seeing frost develop in areas that approach freezing, but again, this will be largely dependent on how much clearing we see, so will continue to monitor trends in the coming shifts.
416 AM EDT Mon May 2 2022 Showers exit the lower Susquehanna Valley early this morning, but continue to linger over parts of the northern tier through this afternoon.
Main feature to watch over the next two days will be an upper level Low dropping by to our south.
/NF/ A weak cold frontal boundary remains stalled across northern portions of the area and is delineated more by a difference in dewpoint versus temperatures. By late tonight into tomorrow morning, the boundary is expected to lift north out of the ArkLaMiss region as an approaching low pressure system swings out of the Southern Plains. This will increase shower and thunderstorm chances once again on Monday morning, with the highest chances being north of I-20 and progressively increasing towards the east throughout the late morning/afternoon.
Robust lift with compact upper low tracking across the central Rockies is spreading precipitation across southern Wyoming into western Nebraska.
346 AM EDT Mon May 2 2022 Current synoptic setup across the CONUS consists of a low pressure system centered over southern Ontario and the much talked about Hudson high now just a bit east of the Great Lakes Region. Meanwhile, current temperatures across the forecast area are generally in the low 40s with some upper 30s extending across the Keweenaw and western counties. Weakening low pressure will continue to its slow exit today into Ontario as shower activity ends across the region. There might be some lingering drizzle in the morning, but overall, expect things to dry out from west to east through the morning as weak ridging builds in. A weak cold front will swing through tonight while a low to the south lifts toward the lower Great Lakes.
The cold front has inched it's way across the forecast area today and is currently draped across NE AL. Overnight lows will be several degrees cooler than last night with temperatures falling into the low/mid 50s. An upper trough and closed low will move into the Plains on Monday, with a weak ridge building over the TN Valley. Ahead of this, the cold front that moves through overnight will lift northward, with southerly flow returning moisture into the region.
High clouds will gradually stream in from the west, especially this afternoon, ahead of convection stretching from the Central Plains to the Lower Mississippi Valley. High temperatures this afternoon will be a degree or two warmer than yesterday, with increasing heights being offset by increasing cloud cover. Tonight the low to our southwest will advance from north of Oklahoma City to north of St Louis and will sweep its warm front northward through central Kentucky and southern Indiana. Lows will be in the lower to middle 60s with nearly steady temperatures after midnight behind the warm front. At the surface, an associated area of low pressure will be pushing out of northeast MO towards the OH Valley.
/issued 946 PM CDT Sun May 1 2022/ As of 9:40 PM CDT, a warm front is beginning to cross the I-20 corridor with waning seabreeze thunderstorm activity. As this convection completely dissipates, the warm front will continue northward, approaching the I-30 corridor overnight. Forecast grid adjustments were made to account for the position of the warm frontal boundary and precipitation distribution as moist Gulf air continues to return northward across the Ark-La-Tex.
118 AM EDT Mon May 2 2022 High pressure will remain off the Southeast coast for the next few days with temperatures rising above normal.
Early morning fog along the ridges, associated with a stalled moisture boundary, will dissolve with sfc heating after dawn. Quiet, dry conditions are expected throughout the day as high pressure builds from the southwest. Temperatures are likely to stay slightly below the climatological average under cold advection and linger clouds from a weakening low pressure system over the Great Lakes.
Moisture and upper support will be quick to return with POPs back in the scattered to numerous range for Tuesday afternoon and temps continuing in the mid 80s near the coast to the lower 90s inland. High pressure continues over the waters, and will keep the E/SE flow with an afternoon sea breeze each day through mid-week.
The upper level low will move will continue to move northeast from Colorado into Nebraska, as it moves into the area it should continue to stream a flow of moisture into the area, helping to aid in widespread precipitation through day. There is some concern temperatures may hover above the freezing mark longer than expected which would impact snowfall totals. The upper level low pushes to the east an upper level ridge builds into the area early Tuesday, keeping dry conditions for most of the day. Then a trof moves in across the Rockies, making its way into the High Plains by Tuesday evening.
/NF/ A cold front will be within proximity of the ArkLaMiss Tuesday, however the main forcing is expected to stay off to the north/northeast.
A broad precipitation shield to the north of the low will be present, and does look like it will nose up into at least the I-90 corridor of Minnesota this evening and tonight. A break in the cloud cover is finally expected Tuesday as high pressure and drier air moves into the region.
Tuesday, the area will be dry underneath a ridge quickly passing through, but temperatures will only make it into the 50s.
Lakeside areas will see off lake winds starting Tuesday keeping those areas cooler through late week. Low pressure will continue to pull away from the region today with northwest winds occurring behind. High pressure will work its way into the region tonight into Tuesday.
A warm front is south of the Red River currently but should quickly lift northward throughout the day to near north central OK by late this afternoon/early evening. Nevertheless, dewpoints should make it into the upper 60s within the warm sector (if not low 70s) by early this afternoon under the previous mentioned cloud shield and some late heating ahead of the dryline should result in destabilization before the cold front arrives early this evening. In addition to the severe threat late this afternoon through tonight along the cold front, strong northwest winds behind it may briefly reach advisory criteria across far northwestern OK from ~00-03Z.
High pressure will gradually slide east and we'll see more of an east to southeast wind develop during the day. Warmer temps are expected for all locales with the warmest afternoon readings across the Missouri Valley.
A cold front will sweep southeast across the area early this morning, accompanied by mostly light rain and a dusting of high elevation snow. A tight upper low is presently dipping SE toward the Oregon Coast. The associated cold front is approaching the NW CA coast, with mostly light rain spreading inland across the N half of our County Warning Area.
This morning's frontal analysis showed the low pressure system that brought the recent rain showers drifting to the northeast with its low centered over Upper MI. Lingering low-level moisture circulating on the backside of the low was observed across the region in the form of low-level clouds and light isolated showers overnight into this morning. As the low continues to track east/northeast throughout the morning, the shower activity will come to an end. Despite the showers ending, forecast soundings indicate the low-level moisture sticking around throughout the day, keeping the cloudy skies in place. However, there appears to be decent agreement now with keeping the low's track across central IL. The remainder of Tuesday will be dry as the dry air from the high begins to push further east across the region.
High pressure centered over Bermuda is currently maintaining moderate breezes across the coastal waters. High pressure will continue to hold over the western Atlantic and promote moderate to occasionally fresh easterly breezes over the local waters through Tuesday. Breezes will slacken on Wenesday as the high slides into the eastern Atlantic waters.
/issued 404 AM CDT Mon May 2 2022/ SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday): High pressure is expected to remain fully in control across Deep South Texas today into tomorrow. Low pressure deepens across the Plains, strengthening the pressure gradient along the lower Texas coast into this afternoon, increasing winds along the lower to mid RGV.
945 AM EDT Mon May 2 2022 Seasonable temperatures are expected over the course of the week; thunderstorm chances increase tomorrow afternoon with crossing low pressure. Dry conditions and seasonable temperatures are expected as high pressure transitions over the region. Moisture and warm advection will ramp up early Tuesday ahead of low pressure approaching from the west. Showers and elevated storms should develop by late morning/early afternoon with a warm front, followed by linear or multi-cellular sfc based convection later in the afternoon and early evening. The Storm Prediction Center has included eastern Ohio zones in their Day 2 Marginal Risk for storms ahead and/or along the cold front.
After 12Z Tuesday showers and thunderstorms will become more numerous as a cold front pushes through during the afternoon and overnight.
By this evening the front finally lifts north as a warm front. On Tuesday a cold front will begin to approach the area.
Once the sea breeze moves inland coastal terminals will be dry, then coverage for inland terminals is expected to remain on the low side.
A low pressure system off the Oregon coast will move inland and begin to impact the Northern Rockies later this afternoon and evening. The low will begin to track toward central Idaho but then take a turn to the south and east into the Great Basin and eventually the central Rockies.
Heading into Tuesday surface and upper level ridging will dominate the forecast helping to keep the forecast mostly dry.
These showers are associated with a low pressure system forecast to dip into the Great Basin early this week.
Early morning fog along the ridges, associated with a stalled moisture boundary, will dissolve with sfc heating after dawn. Quiet, dry conditions are expected throughout the day as high pressure builds from the southwest. Temperatures are likely to stay slightly below the climatological average under cold advection and linger clouds from a weakening low pressure system over the Great Lakes. Weather will remain quiet Monday night into early Tuesday under high pressure; temperatures are expected to remain near average under zonal flow. Thunderstorms will likely develop late morning/early afternoon Tuesday with a warm front, persist into the evening, and exit with a quick moving cold front late Tuesday evening. Then, a solid line of storms may develop and quickly advance ahead and/or along the cold front; all severe weather threats are possible with this system.
508 AM EDT Mon May 2 2022 High pressure will slowly exit to the east into Tuesday.
425 AM CDT Mon May 2 2022 Upper troughs over the Great Lakes and near the Four Corners region. At the surface, high pressure was centered off the Atlantic Coast, while low pressure was centered over southeast Colorado.
Fast moving weather disturbances will remain north of the area this week with high pressure strengthening into the region. While heights aloft over the local forecast area will oscillate somewhat early in the week, more pronounced ridging should build north during the latter half of the week allowing temperatures to increase around 10F above normal, and the population centers of Yuma and Phoenix to finally breach the 100F threshold for the first time this calendar year. Ensemble output also suggests this next system a bit mistimed (H8/H7 trough passage Tuesday evening/overnight) and ill-positioned (height falls focused too far north) to produce wind speeds anywhere close to recent events. Larger ensemble spread exists during the latter half of the week as stronger ridging attempts to build north into the region.
An upper low over the Great Lakes will continue to progress eastward removing lingering stratus clouds from the James River Valley this afternoon. A surface pressure trough across the central portion of the state is going to progress eastward veering winds out of the southeast by this evening. Ridging will continue to build in over eastern Montana resulting in subsidence aloft and a strengthening LLTR. Overnight lows are forecast to increase above freezing for the central and western North Dakota tomorrow. Tuesday high temperatures are forecast to slightly increase as the ridge moves eastward.