Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
720 PM EDT SUN JUL 31 2016 An upper level trough will push east, from the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley today, into the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic states Monday. 2" PWAT airmass in place east of the baggy trough approaching slowly from the west will support scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Additionally, given the high moisture content, localized flooding will also be possible. Lows overnight in the lower to mid 70s. Mid/upper level trough will move slowly east-southeast through the Mid-Atlantic States late Monday.
Upper level low is moving across southwest Canada this afternoon trailing a trof into the pacific northwest heading eastward toward Montana. Further east a surface trof/dryline has set up in Carter and Fallon counties where convective initiation is ongoing. As the upper trof gets closer the eastern dry line will shift into the Dakotas taking the threat of severe storms with it. Isolated high based storms are expected to develop over western mountains and in the vicinity of the cold front and slowly work east and northeast through late tonight.
Tonight and Monday A ridge across Wisconsin will be the main surface feature during the short term.
Upper level analysis places weak ridge pushing towards central North Dakota while low spins over central Alberta. Variety of short waves continue to slide through strong southwest flow behind aforementioned ridge with a notable one pushing though eastern Montana.
the upper ridge is expected to build again from the southeast into Oklahoma.
Surface pattern features weak high pressure from Wisconsin down into Arkansas and low pressure out over the western High Plains. readings jump into the lower 80s. The highest probabilities seem to be from eastern and northern Missouri into southern Iowa. we should see highs ranging from the upper 80s to mid 90s as warm front lifts north.
Overnight lows in the 70s and near 80 along the coast and daytime highs in the low to mid 90s are anticipated.
Monday and this week, the upper high pressure ridge builds into the region and is expected to lower chances of rain while warming temperatures back to the mid and upper 90s.
Cannot rule out the possibility of some patchy br after midnight giving the low temp/dewpt spreads at the MLU terminal due to rainfall that fell earlier. Partly cloudy skies and slowly falling temps through the low and mid 80s last hour, but a couple of upper 70s are not to be overlooked. The heat is on with mid level ridging to be enhanced by the Bermuda ridge. In fact, the water vapor shows an upper low over East TX lifting Northward, but this low is only seen on the 250mb level analysis and will be of no concern.
SE low level flow continues around the Atlantic ridge with some deep layer drying affect north coastal sections.
GAH PREVIOUS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION: A medium-wave trough over Western Canada will trek towards Hudson Bay during the short-term period.
/Issued 410 PM CDT SUN JUL 31 2016/ The forecast message remains largely unchanged as the center of an upper ridge slowly relocates further east. Even as this ridge moves across the area, precip chances will persist.
1002 PM CDT SUN JUL 31 2016 A subtropical ridge is beginning to build back in over the CWA with less forcing at play compared to the last couple of days. This departure of the recent parade of weak disturbances through our region is coming in concert with the subtropical ridge building back overhead through the next 24 to 36 hours. Despite the upper level ridge building back overhead through the short term, rainfall is expected to remain at above average levels (for early August), especially in the eastern half of zones. There is a chance the "dirty" side of the ridge setting up close enough to the MS/AL border through midweek may allow some storm clusters of not an entirely diurnally-driven nature to brush south near/through eastern zones, and this is something we will have to keep an eye on.
Last night's weak cold front and today's broad upper trough today making today cooler than any day in the past week, but also breezy and dry. The upper trough will move out tonight, and Monday will be slightly warmer again ahead of another trough currently in the Gulf of Alaska along 135W.
It will be warm on Monday with highs in the lower 90s lower elevations.
Temperatures throughout the Mid-South vary quite a bit this evening with sites in Northwest Mississippi that have been impacted by cloud cover and earlier rainfall reporting readings in the lower 80's while all other sites throughout the Mid- South report near or just below normal readings. The NAM, Euro, and GFS agree on one more weak impulse embedded in northwest flow affecting the region as a subtropical ridge begins to build over the Mid-South tomorrow. Tomorrow will also be a few degrees warmer than today and heat indices could reach the lower 100's in areas not impacted by thunderstorms.
721 PM EDT SUN JUL 31 2016 A weak area of low pressure extended from central Pennsylvania to central Ohio. The low will drift east and be over to the Mid- Atlantic coast on Monday.
Some drying of the low level airmass is expected over the next couple days, resulting in more marginal conditions for an advisory, so will hold off on any heat headlines after this evening. An upper ridge will remain over the center of the country all week.
This activity is the remnants of an earlier MCS that is interacting with the northward advancing surface warm front currently located across the northern CWA. a strong upper level trough moving through the Canadian Rockies will push the upper level ridge eastward and allow the upper high to begin to build eastward. High temperatures on Monday should be noticably warmer in the upper 80s to lower 90s. As the upper high shifts eastward and the surface front moves northward. along the eastern periphery of the high.
forcing becomes more focused as the warm front to the southwest of the CWA lifts northward and LLJ develops. /Monday through Sunday/ A warm, humid, and fairly active week is in store for Iowa as we reside near the northern periphery of a broad mid/upper ridge covering the southern half of the CONUS. This will place us near or beneath the colloquial ring of fire with troughs in the northern stream moving across the upper Midwest and generating opportunities for convection as well as pushing weak boundaries across our region. These will diminish somewhat during the day but given the instability in place the the likely presence of a residual outflow boundary retreating northward as an effective warm front, it is possible that some storms will continue to percolate during the daytime and have maintained low chance POPs to account for this.
The highest risk for severe storms today should be over the northern Panhandle closer to the stronger flow aloft, and this is where the HRRR hints at some of the better simulated reflectivity.
A few spots will be a few degrees cooler than last night due to the rainfall that occurred late this afternoon and evening. 08 Generally scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected through the week with highs in the lower to middle 90s.
Temperatures will remain near seasonal averages through midweek and cool slightly late in the week as an upper level trough deepens along the West Coast. The current satellite water vapour image is showing moisture wrapping around an area of high pressure centered roughly over the Gulf Coast and a low pressure system is also evident moving down the coast of British Columbia.
Upper level ridging noses into the area by midweek. A weak upper level trough will continue to move east tonight.
956 PM EDT SUN JUL 31 2016 High pressure will remain across the region tonight. High pressure at the surface and aloft will result in a dry night tonight. Lows tonight are expected to range from the lower 50s across the far north but in the mid 50s to around 60 central and downeast.
Elsewhere mostly clear conditions less some lingering debris cloud cover as low temperatures fall into the low/mid 70s inland to upper 70s along the Atlantic Coast. Southerly flow will prevail through the upcoming week as high pressure dominates east of the local waters and weak trough axis carves southward down the Atlantic sea board.
635 PM CDT SUN JUL 31 2016 Upper level high pressure will continue to bring subsident air and VFR conditions to North and Central Texas through Monday night. Westerly flow across the Central Rockies will result in lee troughing and a 25 to 30 knot low level jet tonight. Although the aforementioned TUTT-like feature is expected to meander around Texas for the next couple of days, overall 500 mb ridging is expected to build into the region.
/issued 642 PM CDT SUN JUL 31 2016/ Temperatures throughout the Mid-South vary quite a bit this evening with sites in Northwest Mississippi that have been impacted by cloud cover and earlier rainfall reporting readings in the lower 80's while all other sites throughout the Mid- South report near or just below normal readings. The NAM, Euro, and GFS agree on one more weak impulse embedded in northwest flow affecting the region as a subtropical ridge begins to build over the Mid-South tomorrow. Tomorrow will also be a few degrees warmer than today and heat indices could reach the lower 100's in areas not impacted by thunderstorms.
Area finally precip free after MCS moved through overnight and this morning, with additional back-end development occurring as warm air advection continues in the low to mid levels. Temps rising quickly where skies have cleared, and dewpoints in the lower 70s helping contribute to RAP analysis of 2000-3000 J/kg of ML CAPE in southwestern areas, significant CIN was also indicated, and latest visible satellite and radar reflectivity support a still stable boundary layer. If dewpoints are on the higher end of guidance and temps in the middle, and convection remains away, most of the area should see heat index values around 105 at least briefly, but am not quite confident in all these factors for an Advisory.
Although the aforementioned TUTT-like feature is expected to meander around Texas for the next couple of days, overall 500 mb ridging is expected to build into the region.
with the lowest precipitable water values expected to occur during the day tomorrow. Drier airmass aloft should allow for slightly cooler min temps tonight and Monday Night.
5 inches along with upper trough over eastern U. Minor short waves are moving through the longer wave trough and with a little help from Mr. Upper trough lifts northeastward on Monday and this will allow for upper ridge to build in this direction and warm temps a bit.
1045 PM MDT SUN JUL 31 2016 The upper level trough passing through today will push eastward through the Continental Divide tonight. High pressure amplitude will rebound on Monday as the next low pressure system strengthens over the Pacific NW and allows high pressure to dominate for a couple of days. As high pressure amplifies over the region, drier air will advect into northeastern Utah and northwestern Colorado.
An upper level ridge will move east across the Central Plains overnight as an upper level disturbance, located near the four corners region at 12z Sunday, begins to approach the central Rockies. A trough of low pressure at the surface over eastern Colorado will remain nearly stationary tonight as this upper level disturbance approaches from the west. On Monday the Colorado surface boundary will slide east into western Kansas as the upper level trough begins to cross the Central High Plains. Given the warm 850mb to 700mb temperatures along and just ahead of this surface lee trough Monday afternoon the highs across southwest and south central Kansas should easily climb to around 100 degrees. On Monday night a weak surface cold front will drop south into western Kansas as the upper level trough continues to move east across the Central Plains.
and currently seeing showers fill in across western and central OK ahead of upper low spinning across west TX. although should see PoPs ramp up after midnight as the upper low lifts in OK.
Cold front is mainly over into NW/W Cntrl MN and is main weather feature for the short term, with south winds becoming NW behind the front although cold advection not impressive, with cooler air bring overnight lows around the freezing mark to the far NW but should be above freezing elsewhere. Minor temp adjustments made for a cooler spot around Crary. column slightly cooler than today but temperatures will continue above average.
The cyclone heading out of the southern Plains tonight is now forecast to track much farther north than it was in yesterday's guidance--into northern Illinois by late Monday. In contrast to the Monday system, the following cyclone set to arrive mid-week is now forecast to track a little farther south (especially by the ECMWF). Was hesitant to go along with the southward shift as guidance took a last minute northward jog in the tracks of a couple of the previous cyclones, and appears to be doing the same thing with the Monday system. Quieter weather will return late in the week and into the upcoming weekend as ridging shifts over the area. Rain will push in across all of the TAF sites later tonight and into Monday as low pressure passes to our south.
603 PM CDT Sun Apr 2 2017 A large shield of showers with embedded thunderstorms being noted across the Southern Plains ahead of a deepening upper low over the TX panhandle. and will maintain slightly higher POPs over the west late tonight into early Monday closer to the upper low.
836 PM MDT Sun Apr 2 2017 Cold front moving through the central zones with some convection flaring up in the evening mainly Billings westward.
808 PM EDT Sun Apr 2 2017 Rain will develop Monday and continue through Monday night as low pressure tracks through the region.
752 PM EDT Sun Apr 2 2017 High pressure slides east tonight.
Currently we still have a high pressure ridge over the area but it is eroding fast and moist East to Southeasterly flow will set up over night ahead of the approaching system. In addition, very good mid level support will also be present in the form of a negatively tilted trough and steep lapse rates.
928 PM CDT Sun Apr 2 2017 The mesoscale bndry generated earlier this evening from the strong convection over the Srn sections of Ncntrl LA has begun to build SE into Cntrl LA and just out of our CWA, although areas of strong overrunning atop this bndry has generated additional areas of convection producing moderate to at times locally heavy rainfall from the Lower Toledo Bend Country NE across the Srn and Ern sections of Ncntrl LA. Still can't rule out isolated/widely sct wrap-around -SHRA redeveloping late across extreme NE TX/SE OK/SW AR as the center of the closed low shifts NE out of N TX into Srn and Ern OK. Also lowered pops a tad across N LA Monday morning as the drier air continues to entrain E beneath the closed low.
/issued 209 PM CDT Sun Apr 2 2017/ An upper low over west Texas this afternoon will continue eastward tonight taking precipitation and cloud cover with it.
The cyclone heading out of the southern Plains tonight is now forecast to track much farther north than it was in yesterday's guidance--into northern Illinois by late Monday. In contrast to the Monday system, the following cyclone set to arrive mid-week is now forecast to track a little farther south (especially by the ECMWF). Was hesitant to go along with the southward shift as guidance took a last minute northward jog in the tracks of a couple of the previous cyclones, and appears to be doing the same thing with the Monday system. Quieter weather will return late in the week and into the upcoming weekend as ridging shifts over the area. Rain is expected to redevelop over the taf sites later Monday morning as a low pressure system passes to our south.
1141 PM CDT Sun Apr 2 2017 A large shield of showers with embedded thunderstorms being noted across the Southern Plains ahead of a deepening upper low over the TX panhandle. and will maintain slightly higher POPs over the west late tonight into early Monday closer to the upper low.
1133 PM CDT Sun Apr 2 2017 Dry and quiet conditions continue through tonight as a weak ridge of high pressure remains in place. As far as precipitation type goes for this system, rain will likely be the main precipitation type as temperatures remain well above freezing for most of Monday (upper 40s and 50s). There is a slight chance of some snow across the Pine Ridge region early on Monday morning, though, as temperatures drop to near freezing.
Precipitation amounts are expected to be light, less than 2 inches of snow over the mountains and less than a tenth inch of rain across the lower elevations. As the trough axis crosses the mountains, the high res models have continued to push rain showers east of the Rockies across the Plains. A weak cold front will move south from Wyoming late morning/midday with gusty northwest winds across northeast Colorado. This front, combined with cold advection at 700 mb (3-5 degC drop from Sunday) and cloud cover will hold temps in the low to mid 50s across the Plains. Mountains will also be 5-8 degF cooler than Sunday. Southwesterly flow aloft is over the CWA Monday night ahead of the next approaching upper trough.
1028 PM EDT Sun Apr 2 2017 Currently - A broad high pressure system aligned roughly along the Atlantic coast along with lower pressures in the Plains and central and western Gulf of Mexico is responsible for gentle to moderate mostly southeast breezes across the Florida Keys and surrounding waters. Meanwhile, ridging is in place through the mid and upper levels. Ridging aloft will cap any deep convection. However, the lower level inhibition is expected to erode a bit through the night and showers may be able to form towards the latter portion of the overnight period.
634 PM CDT Sun Apr 2 2017 /00Z TAFS/ Scattered showers will continue this evening, mainly at KABI, KSJT, and KBBD, as an upper level low moves across the region. Stratus will begin to dissipate late this evening or early Monday morning, as the upper level low moves east of area. As the upper low slides across West Central Texas this evening, some thunderstorms may develop of the backside of this low. For tomorrow, lots of sunshine will help overcome the cooler air moving into West Central texas from the west.
Cold front is currently located along the Middle Texas coast to around the VCT area. A period of gusty winds is likely for a couple of hours this evening and tonight for each TAF site from west to east as the high pressure ridge settles in. Otherwise, the mid to upper level low over the Big Bend will move northeast through northwest Texas this evening and into eastern Oklahoma by Monday morning. Short wave trough moving across northern Coahuila will move into south central Texas this evening. Winds will back to southwest and south Monday night with lows slightly warmer than tonight.
1124 PM EDT Sun Apr 2 2017 Update A low pressure system over Texas this afternoon will move northeast and continue to strengthen and bring rain and potential for a few thunderstorms Monday afternoon through Monday night.
Radar trends show that convection in central MS is weakening a bit as it gets north of the warm front, and models are showing low values of instability with early precip chances.
938 PM MST Sun Apr 2 2017 A high pressure system over the region will weaken tonight as another mostly dry cold front approaches the region.
1042 PM EDT Sun Apr 2 2017 High pressure slides east tonight.
with the thermal trough continuing in place at the coast tomorrow looks to be a repeat of today, just slightly warmer. Lows in the Rogue Valley will be in the lower to mid 30s and frost is possible at many locations outside Medford. High pressure will build into the forecast area Monday for another day of sunny sky and warmer temperature.
A cold front will stall across southern Utah tonight. High pressure will return to the region for midweek. A low-amplitude trough continues to graze northern Utah this evening. The associated cold front has made it into far southern Utah now where it is currently accompanied by showers and isolated thunderstorms. Overnight min temperatures are expected to be quite a bit cooler across northern valleys owing to the clearing skies and colder airmass behind the front which is expected to drop 700mb temperatures down to around -8C. The next trough is seen on satellite imagery over the West Coast. This trough will dive southeast towards southern Nevada as the pattern amplifies. As this trough approaches, the existing cold front across southern Utah will strengthen, causing precipitation to increase along the boundary tomorrow.
As of Sunday afternoon a vigorous mid-level trough was over southwestern Texas. A few showers are possible during the evening hours, as large scale ascent associated with the mid-level trough approaches the area, mainly along and southeast the KS Turnpike.
An upper low over TX. with a surface reflection trailing a cold front south to Mexico. High pressure departing Mon as a cold front approaches will shift winds to more southerly and increase as the pressure gradient tightens.
The low level jet will also strengthen late tonight, with 45-55 knots of 850 mb flow anticipated late tonight into Monday morning.
656 PM CDT Sun Apr 2 2017 The upper level low is centered over northwest Texas and is slowly making an exit to the northeast. Any wrap around precipitation on the backside of the upper low should stay north of the terminals, but have included vicinity showers at DRT due to a few isolated showers and storms over Mexico moving towards Val Verde County. The strong dynamic forcing of the low is currently aiding stratiform rain showers across west Texas and the Edwards Plateau. All activity is expected to diminish late evening as the low shifts east. Clear skies are expected throughout the day Monday as highs reach into the low 80s to even low 90s.
1200 AM CDT Mon Apr 3 2017 A mid/upper trough over the Southern Plains will lift north and east across the area tonight before exiting across the Middle Mississippi Valley area on Monday. Precipitation will end from west to east on Mon with increasing large-scale forcing for subsidence in the wake of the mid/upper trough. After a brief lull, another vigorous mid/upper trough will dig over the Great Basin area on Monday before emerging across the Central Plains late Tue. We may also see some areas of frost develop late Wed into early Thu as high pressure settles over the area in the wake of the storm system. After a cool start on Thu morning, dry weather conditions and moderating temperatures are anticipated through the weekend as a mid/upper ridge builds over the central Conus.
941 PM CDT Sun Apr 2 2017 As the convection continues to move off to the ENE across LA and points beyond, the cold front is starting to make its way slowly into SE TX this evening. the upper low's slow movement into the Big Bend region this afternoon really placed the best diffulence west of us. Dry slotting behind the exiting upper low into the Midwestern CONUS tomorrow morning will clear skies and allow temperatures to fall into the upper 50s to near 60 F.
06z set of TAFs will need to significantly speed up the arrival, and/or lengthen the duration, of the lowered visibility and lower ceilings associated with this convection.
907 PM EDT Sun Apr 2 2017 High pressure will be slow to move out of the region, yielding dry conditions into the early half of Monday. A series of crossing low pressure areas will thereafter keep periodic rain chances in the forecast for the upcoming work week. High pressure centered over the area will slide eastward this evening. This will mean return flow around the back side of the high and ahead of the next system to affect the area in tandem with more cloud cover should keep temperatures above the levels we dropped to last night. Fries Temperatures near 10 degrees above normal are expected Monday as this continues as WAA continues with rain chances increasing mid-afternoon through the night as low pressure tracks towards the Great Lakes.