Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
This shift later on Tuesday as a trough moves into the region bringing another round of unsettled cooler and wetter weather that will last through the work week.
642 AM EST Mon Nov 16 2020 High pressure will bring dry weather today.
320 AM CST Mon Nov 16 2020 Today a weak upper ridge extends up from the Gulf through the Western US. This ridge will slide east Tuesday and extend from Mexico up through TX and the Central Plains into Canada. Also on Tuesday the next upper trough will begin to move ashore the West Coast. This trough will move across the northern tier of states and flatten out the ridge.
High pressure at the surface was centered over southern AR. However, the ridge of high pressure should remain in place through today across AR/MS/AL keeping the tightening pressure gradient associated with the low just to our north through today. This anticyclone originating in Canada should bring similarly cool conditions, with highs around 60 on Tue. Colder conditions are expected Tue night, with lows in the low/mid 30s.
Hourly temperatures are running a couple of degrees warmer than anticipated in some spots this morning, but the forecast remains largely on track for the rest of today. ABM Chattanooga Airport, TN 39 60 35 58 36 / 0 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 37 56 31 53 33 / 0 0 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 36 56 30 54 33 / 0 0 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 31 51 26 50 29 / 0 0 0 0 0.
1007 AM PST Mon Nov 16 2020 A warm front moves north spreading valley rain and high mountain snow Today followed by a warm day Tuesday. A cold front brings temperatures back down closer to near normal in the lower 40s by the end of the week. The ridge is amplifying this morning over the West Coast and the warm front is pushing into eastern Washington from the southwest. At Blewett Pass snow is beginning to stick to area roadways, however the warm front should push through at a decent pace through the day with warming snowlevels moving from south to north. /Dewey 18Z TAFS: Rain associated with a warm front passing over the aviation area today will be accompanied with some MVFR/IFR ceilings and visibilities.
340 PM EST Mon Nov 16 2020 Dry airmass has settled in over the CWA under large dome of high pressure across eastern CONUS. Progged upper ridge slides into the southeast CONUS for the end of the week into the weekend.
A very nice day expected with overnight lows perhaps a few degrees warmer than this morning.
159 PM MST Mon Nov 16 2020 Fast northwesterly flow aloft has developed over the forecast area today between an upper ridge over the western CONUS and an upper trough over the east. A tight surface pressure gradient associated with a low pressure center moving from the eastern Dakotas into southern Minnesota is producing gusty northwesterly winds this afternoon.
With high pressure sliding in, low stratus may decrease in coverage somewhat but linger in areas this evening. Area of precipiation ahead of the low now moving east out of the James River Valley. Highs today will range from the 20s north to the low/mid 40s south.
254 PM CST Mon Nov 16 2020 Still a pretty benign pattern with autumnal cool and dry high pressure in place and becoming re-enforced with a new surge of high pressure Tuesday.
This will drive a moisture-starved cold front through the forecast area overnight.
111 PM CST Mon Nov 16 2020 As of 18Z, a ridge of high pressure centered near Texarkana was shifting east into the area. However, a clipper low over southeast MN will travel rapidly east-southeast into the lower Great Lakes early this evening, and into PA by early Tuesday morning. This will swing another cold front rapidly southeast toward the TN valley. With the high and light winds in place, expect rapid cooling since dew points have dipped into the upper teens to lower 20s early this afternoon. Will tweak lows down from NBM slightly into the lower to middle 30s for southern TN and northeast AL valleys. Moderate cold air advection will keep temps noticeably cooler tomorrow afternoon with highs only in the upper 50s to around 60 (a few degrees cooler atop the Cumberland Plateau).
Aforementioned coupled polar jet will continue to provide the necessary ascent for lake enhanced snow showers for northern PA in conjunction with upslope snow showers for the ridges. With a steady thermal profile and no warm air intrusion aloft, expect a transition back to rain during the day Tuesday in places where the high surface temperature surpasses around 34 degrees, namely south of I80 and west of the Laurel Highlands. Snow totals will be highest in Venango and Forest counties and in the ridges, where the moisture profile will reach through the dendritic growth zone via supported large scale forcing.
121 PM EST Mon Nov 16 2020 A low pressure system that crosses the Great Lakes tonight will push a cold front through the Mid Atlantic area Tuesday.
103 PM MST Mon Nov 16 2020 19Z Water vapor imagery and RAP analysis indicated CWA in broad northwesterly flow aloft with large H5 ridge to the west of the area, centered over the northern Rockies. Weather across the Tri State area will be quiet through the period as aforementioned H5 ridge amplifies and moves over the region. Temperatures will continue to warm and based on how fast todays temperatures reached or exceeded the expected values today, think the warmer solutions pushing into the lower 70s looks reasonable. Strong lee trough will develop Tuesday morning leading to increased southerly winds into the afternoon.
1148 AM CST Mon Nov 16 2020 Winds simmering down early this morning as gradient continues to slacken with that deep low pressure system pulling farther northeast into Ontario Canada. Next on the forecast docket will be a weak intensity mid-level trough rotating southeast through southern Saskatchewan per GOES water vapor loop. High pressure builds in tonight into Tuesday for mostly clear skies.
1109 AM CST Mon Nov 16 2020 High pressure will dominate through the period for widespread VFR conditions. High pressure and clear conditions will continue through the period with VFR conditions. Today Through Tuesday Night An amplifying upper ridge will be over the Rockies today and move into the Plains Tuesday.
High pressure is still the main influence this pleasant afternoon. Some areas in the Hill Country may reach freezing, though not widespread enough to justify a freeze warning just yet. Tuesday will be very similar to today with a just a few high clouds and a couple of degrees warmer. A very gradual increase in moisture will mean Tuesday lows will be slightly warmer than tonight, though still chilly, in the 40s.
238 PM EST Mon Nov 16 2020 Cooler and drier is the theme for the next few days. With an amplifying upper-level pattern across the CONUS, a trough axis is dragging a cold front down the Florida peninsula through our region. Generally cooler mornings, mild afternoons, and breezier winds will accompany the front. This will stick around until the NE flow becomes more E late in the week as the ridge axis begins to shift. Once this occurs, moisture will come back as will the warmer air. As a cold front continues to push through the area today, winds and seas will begin to increase to cautionary levels and/or advisory levels later this evening and tonight across our area. With a cold front pushing through today, RH values are beginning to drop, particularly across the nature coast.
Clear skies with much cooler temperatures for tonight as winds drop off over inland areas. Lows will range from the low/mid 40s over inland areas to the upper 40s to upper 50s coast where winds will stay up overnight. Highs on Tuesday will be mostly in the lower 70s.
High pressure will be the dominant feature across the area through the work week, keeping the area dry and temperatures below normal until a bit of a warm up in the latter portion of the week. Have gone with the cooler side of the guidance envelope with lows generally in the mid 20s across the area.
1037 AM EST Mon Nov 16 2020 High pressure will build east from the Midwest with cooler and drier air. A dry, cold front will move through the region Tuesday brining cooler temperatures to the area through mid week. Cold front has pushed well offshore as high pressure continues to build over the region today. Guidance has trended a little cooler but there will be a relatively strong low level jet toward morning. mainly upper 30s to near 40 but possibly cooler in sheltered areas. Canadian high pressure will dig into the eastern CONUS on Tuesday pushing a reinforcing cold front through the Southeast. The low level mixing will prevent ideal radiational cooling conditions.
Saturation has been on the cold side of the system, with snow to the left of the low track, and 40s and 50s and partly to mostly sunny to the right of it. Winds just behind the cold front, in northwest Iowa, are gusting as high at 34kts. The combination of light winds, sunshine and a cold daytime high in the upper 30s north to mid 40s south is on that might actually feel more comfortable than seeing the high temperature at face value.
Relatively warmer temperatures expected Tuesday. Northwest flow aloft will make way for a building ridge tonight and Tuesday with low level warm air advection beginning the warming trend for the next few days. High pressure at the surface will build east tonight with pressure falls in the west. Breezy southerly winds with highs in the low 50s southwest to 30s north can be expected Tuesday.
936 AM CST Mon Nov 16 2020 (Issued 935 AM CST Mon Nov 16 2020) Small but potent area of frontogenetical forcing associated with weak low pressure will sweep across central WI this afternoon and early evening. So hoping surface temps warm above freezing before light mix spreads in this aftn in those areas. Expecting pavement temps to warm above freezing before precip onset so glazing should not be a problem. Kavinsky (Issued 349 AM CST Mon Nov 16 2020) Today and Tonight: A weak low pressure system currently over eastern ND will slide southeast through central and southern WI this afternoon. Clouds will gradually clear overnight and lows should be in the upper 20s, although a delay in the clearing will lead to slightly warmer lows.
An upper level ridge over the CA/AZ will move eastward and will be centered over the southern High Plains by late tonight. High pressure and southerly return flow will maintain above normal temperatures helping temps reach the upper 70s area wide and 80s for the Rio Grande.
114 PM MST Mon Nov 16 2020 Snow showers over the western mountains will decrease into the evening as a mid level warm front lifts north through the region. Otherwise, expect ridging to persist over the area through Tuesday bringing mainly dry conditions.
Drier and cooler conditions expected today behind the overnight cold front. A cold front should be exiting our area this morning, leaving behind a much cooler and drier airmass than its predecessor.
1249 PM EST Mon Nov 16 2020 High pressure will bring dry weather today.
105 PM EST Mon Nov 16 2020 High pressure will build east from the Midwest with cooler and drier air. A dry, cold front will move through the region Tuesday brining cooler temperatures to the area through mid week. 3 inches and dewpoints mixing out into the lower 30s and even some upper 20s. Full sunshine under clear skies combined with some light downsloping northwesterly flow has resulted in temperatures pushing into the lower to mid 60s already. Expect overnight lows to be in the upper 30s to near 40 but possibly cooler in sheltered areas. Canadian high pressure will dig into the eastern CONUS on Tuesday pushing a reinforcing cold front through the Southeast. The low level mixing will prevent ideal radiational cooling conditions.
1108 AM CST Mon Nov 16 2020 High pressure over the area leaving terminals under clear skies with light winds. High pressure is settling over Texas behind a cold front. Cooler, drier air has moved over our CWA. Temperatures are 15 to 25 degrees cooler than 24 hours ago and dewpoints are 30 to 45 degrees lower. The center of the high will drift toward the east during this period.
The only other change made was to increase high temperatures slightly today as temperatures are running a bit warmer than forecast this morning. West-northwest flow aloft will decrease today and tonight as an upper level ridge builds over the Great Basin. Except along the east slopes of the Front Range mountains and along the Cheyenne Ridge, winds will be weak today. With the ridge starting to build over the region, temperatures will be warmer today with lower to mid 60s across northeast Colorado. Upper ridging with zonal flow aloft is progged for the CWA on Tuesday.
253 PM CST Mon Nov 16 2020 Skies remain sunny across the Mid-South this afternoon with temperatures in the low to mid 60s. High pressure will remain over the southern U. Temperatures will be cooler than normal tonight with lows Tuesday morning from the mid 30s to lower 40s. A cold front will drop south into the region on Tuesday. Temperatures will be a few degrees cooler on Tuesday with highs in the mid 50s to mid 60s. High pressure will build back into the region by Tuesday night with continued dry weather.
Light rain will continue across our northern zones this morning with the warm frontal passage. Warm front will exit the region to the north by 11 AM MST ending the precipitation.
(This evening through Tuesday) Generally mild temperatures, light variable to southerly winds, and clear skies will continue through the short term as the ridge gradually builds over the area.
High pressure centered to the north will otherwise be the controlling factor in our weather across ECFL. Post frontal drying will continue into Tuesday along with cooler temperatures. RH values in the 30s are forecast Tuesday afternoon across far interior north central Florida, however fuel moisture for 10 hour and greater remains on the higher side across the area.
145 PM CST Mon Nov 16 2020 At 130 PM, low pressure was located over western Wisconsin, with an area of snow located to the northeast of the low across north- central into northeast Wisconsin. As low pressure pushes farther southeast this afternoon, snow should taper off quickly over north-central Wisconsin. Winds will continue to be gusty across northeast Iowa and southeast Minnesota in the tight gradient behind the departing low-pressure system. High pressure will begin to nudge into the area later this evening, very gradually diminishing the cloud cover and allowing gusty west-northwest winds to die down. This high pressure remains in control for Tuesday, with a dry but cool day expected.
133 PM CST Mon Nov 16 2020 Ridging aloft will slide eastward across the Plains during Tuesday.
/NEW/ /This Afternoon through Tuesday/ High pressure will dominate North Texas weather through Tuesday with clear skies expected and no precipitation. We'll see the typical wide range in overnight low temperatures with some areas near or below freezing and others in the low 40s. Highs will warm into the lower 70s. /Issued 244 AM CST Mon Nov 16 2020/ /Tuesday Night Onward/ The tranquil weather conditions will continue through the rest of the work week as upper level ridging dominates throughout the region.
253 PM CST Mon Nov 16 2020 A weak cold front bisected the forecast area from SW to NE Monday afternoon. Temperatures at 2 pm were mainly in the lower 70s area- wide, except across the far southern Panhandle where cooler air has infiltrated - resulting in readings in the lower to mid 60s. Mostly sunny skies will continue Tuesday as a low-amplitude ridge moves overhead. Weak surface ridging lingering behind the front should knock temperatures down a few degrees, with highs mainly in the upper 60s to lower 70s.
High pressure will dominate the weather pattern across Middle Tennessee for the next several days.
Tonight, an area of low pressure will move across the upper Great Lakes region, pushing a cold front through the OH Valley. Tuesday is then expected to be another quiet and sunny day, with temperatures a bit cooler under steady CAA.
1057 AM CST Mon Nov 16 2020 (Today and tonight) Early this morning, freezing temperatures have settled across portions of the area. In fact, high temperatures will settle into the low to middle 70s for this afternoon.
117 PM EST Mon Nov 16 2020 High pressure in control through midnight. A cold front crosses late tonight, with gusty winds and mountain snow showers through Tuesday night.
202 PM CST Mon Nov 16 2020 Sunny skies and unseasonably warm temperatures are the rule across eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas this afternoon as high pressure prevails.
1033 AM MST Mon Nov 16 2020 09z surface analysis had low over central ND with trough into eastern NE and another trough into northern MT.
Mostly clear skies and much cooler temperatures can be expected through Tuesday with this pattern. Highs then trend a few degrees warmer on Tuesday under sunny skies, reaching the upper 60s to low 70s. Northerly winds increase to 8-13 knots Tuesday morning with a few gusts around 18 knots as high pressure continues to build into the region.
1118 AM CST Mon Nov 16 2020 Aloft, we remain in quiet northwesterly flow on the back side of an upper trough that is centered over New England. This quiet weather pattern will continue through most of the week as upper level ridging builds in from the west. Temperatures should approach 60 degrees this afternoon, although there is a little uncertainty on this as highs yesterday ended up a little cooler than expected.
For temperatures tonight, trended NBM values down toward the cooler Canadian, with widespread teens expected for lows, with a few single digits possible from central Minnesota into northwest WI.
A cold front has dropped into northeast sd and west central mn this afternoon bringing falling temperatures along with stratocu/stratus. With the cooler air remaining in the northeast cwa through much of Tuesday along with the clouds, highs will only reach the upper 30s with upper 50s in the southwest under sunny skies. On Tuesday night, much warmer air will be riding over the cooler surface air through the night strengthening the inversion.
Dry surface ridging will loiter over the region through at least midweek. Barring a few clouds, mostly clear skies should be the rule under a broad upper high redeveloping over the Rio Grande Valley.
425 PM MST Mon Nov 16 2020 Very few clouds are visible across the CWA this afternoon, thanks to a ridge of high pressure and dry airmass building overhead. Tonight, a deepening low pressure system spinning along the Pacific Northwest will help amplify and shift the ridge eastward, pushing the high directly overhead.
Much Drier And Cooler Conditions Expected Tuesday Through A cold front now across the south-central peninsula this evening will continue to move to the south of the forecast area overnight into Tuesday morning. As for the rest of tonight much drier and cooler air will continue to advect into the forecast area on a breezy northerly wind flow with mainly clear skies expected. With the drier and cooler moving into the area temperatures will fall into the lower to mid 50s across the Nature coast counties by early Tuesday morning, upper 50s to around 60 central zones, and lower to mid 60s south and along the coast.
438 PM MST Mon Nov 16 2020 Fast northwesterly flow aloft has developed over the forecast area today between an upper ridge over the western CONUS and an upper trough over the east. A tight surface pressure gradient associated with a low pressure center moving from the eastern Dakotas into southern Minnesota is producing gusty northwesterly winds this afternoon.
444 PM MST Mon Nov 16 2020 19Z Water vapor imagery and RAP analysis indicated CWA in broad northwesterly flow aloft with large H5 ridge to the west of the area, centered over the northern Rockies. Weather across the Tri State area will be quiet through the period as aforementioned H5 ridge amplifies and moves over the region. Temperatures will continue to warm and based on how fast todays temperatures reached or exceeded the expected values today, think the warmer solutions pushing into the lower 70s looks reasonable. Strong lee trough will develop Tuesday morning leading to increased southerly winds into the afternoon.
On Tuesday, high pressure ridging will strengthen over the area once again, from a high centered over the Ohio Valley. /15/ Quiet weather will prevail through the week as the region will remain under high pressure at the surface and upper ridging aloft.
617 PM EST Mon Nov 16 2020 High pressure in control through midnight. A cold front crosses late tonight, with gusty winds and mountain snow showers through Tuesday night.
A cold front will push across the region late on Tuesday.
308 PM CST Mon Nov 16 2020 Skies will be mostly clear tonight with the winds shifting from the southwest to the northwest overnight as a cold front moves through the region. High temperatures will be cooler on Tuesday, in the 40s.
SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday night): 500mb high pressure remains centered over South Texas, which continues to provide strong subsidence and dry air to the region. Despite the pesky status clouds lingering across the lower RGV, temperatures have managed to reach the low 80s amid comfortably-low humidity. For those along the lower Texas coast, water run-up is expected again near high tide this afternoon, which occurs at 6:24 PM.
As of 18Z, a ridge of high pressure centered near Texarkana was shifting east into the area. However, a clipper low over southeast MN will travel rapidly east-southeast into the lower Great Lakes early this evening, and into PA by early Tuesday morning. This will swing another cold front rapidly southeast toward the TN valley. With the high and light winds in place, expect rapid cooling since dew points have dipped into the upper teens to lower 20s early this afternoon. Will tweak lows down from NBM slightly into the lower to middle 30s for southern TN and northeast AL valleys. Moderate cold air advection will keep temps noticeably cooler tomorrow afternoon with highs only in the upper 50s to around 60 (a few degrees cooler atop the Cumberland Plateau).
/issued 238 PM EST Mon Nov 16 2020/ Cooler and drier is the theme for the next few days. With an amplifying upper-level pattern across the CONUS, a trough axis is dragging a cold front down the Florida peninsula through our region. Generally cooler mornings, mild afternoons, and breezier winds will accompany the front. This will stick around until the NE flow becomes more E late in the week as the ridge axis begins to shift. Once this occurs, moisture will come back as will the warmer air. As a cold front continues to push through the area today, winds and seas will begin to increase to cautionary levels and/or advisory levels later this evening and tonight across our area. With a cold front pushing through today, RH values are beginning to drop, particularly across the nature coast.
This evening through Tuesday night Ridging will build across Wyoming this afternoon and Tuesday leading to a pleasant couple of days. The ridge and associated southwest flow will also bring in some warm air aloft.
The axis of a mid to upper level ridge will move across our forecast area tomorrow. The weaker mid level winds associated with the ridge will lead to winds in the mountains being on the lighter side for this time of year. Lee cyclogenesis across the eastern plains will increase southerly flow mainly across the Palmer Ridge. With gusts staying below 25 mph for the majority of the area, fire danger will remain on the lower side.
/issued 253 PM CST Mon Nov 16 2020/ A weak cold front bisected the forecast area from SW to NE Monday afternoon. Temperatures at 2 pm were mainly in the lower 70s area- wide, except across the far southern Panhandle where cooler air has infiltrated - resulting in readings in the lower to mid 60s. Mostly sunny skies will continue Tuesday as a low-amplitude ridge moves overhead. Weak surface ridging lingering behind the front should knock temperatures down a few degrees, with highs mainly in the upper 60s to lower 70s.
/Issued 340 PM EST Mon Nov 16 2020/ Dry airmass has settled in over the CWA under large dome of high pressure across eastern CONUS. Progged upper ridge slides into the southeast CONUS for the end of the week into the weekend.