Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Current Situation and Analysis -- Data from the Key West Monday evening radiosonde balloon indicated a moist, very unstable, and weakly inhibited thermodynamic stratification, with weak easterly environmental flow in the lower troposphere and stronger southwesterly winds aloft, along the eastern flank of an upper trough. The regional-scale gradient flow soon will be undergoing significant changes as a sprawling autumn high pressure cell builds southward across the eastern United States and northeastern Gulf of Mexico, while Hurricane Matthew moves steadily northward. A Tropical Storm Watch may be required for some zones east of the Seven Mile Bridge later this morning. A high pressure cell will intensify over the eastern United States overnight through Tuesday night, with slowly freshening northeast to east breezes across Florida Keys coastal waters.
522 PM MDT Mon Oct 3 2016 Water vapor imagery shows strong negatively tilted upper low/trough across the cntrl to nrn Rockies with diffluent flow across the CWA. low pressure sits across se MT into ne WY with deep srly flow mainly across the wrn SD plains. Storm activity will slide eastward a weak cold front pushes in from the east associated with the dryline as the upper low continues to the NE. Cooler and drier weather is expected Tuesday as the upper low nearly stalls across se MT. A secondary cold front will cross the CWA during the day tomorrow bringing gusty W/NW winds and highs in the 50s across ne WY/nw SD/BH.
Moisture remains trapped in the lowest 3000 feet, so any cloud cover tomorrow will be minimal and restricted to the lower levels. Upper-level ridge is in the process of flattening as a deep trough moves through the Great Basin. Tuesday night's min temps will also run 4-6 degrees above normal, generally in the low-mid 70's.
Tomorrow, look for winds to increase as the ridge finally slides off to the east and the pressure gradient tightens up a notch.
1145 PM CDT MON OCT 3 2016 Gusty southeast winds and warm temperatures will continue ahead of a cold front. Subjective 12Z upper air analysis indicates an upper- level trough digging into the Great Basin, with 500mb height falls up to around 150m centered in UT. Downstream ridge axis extended from the Great lakes into the mid-MS River basin, and also from central NE southward through KS/western OK/central TX. Upper-level jet around the base of the trough was noted with speeds up to 90kt behind the trough and 90-95kt ahead.
1107 PM CDT MON OCT 3 2016 Still dealing with sc deck across forecast area despite upper low well northeast of region because of lingering cyclonic flow. Byrd Upper level ridge finally begins to retreat to the east as large upper level trough moves into the area.
Windy conditions, along with thunderstorms along the nearing cold front will continue to be the main concerns through the early evening hours.
High pressure north of the waters will maintain east to northeast winds over the next couple of days, with scattered to numerous thunderstorms.
1208 AM EDT Tue Oct 4 2016 High pressure will remain across the region through the end of the week. Tuesday will feature plenty of sunshine with highs near 60 across the area as high pressure on the surface and ridging aloft builds across the region.
Low pressure system still exiting the Great Basin this evening. Unsettled weather will remain for the northern portions of Nevada as multiple trough intrude into the state through midweek. Low pressure system still exiting the Great Basin this evening. Unsettled weather will remain for the northern portions of Nevada as multiple trough intrude into the state through midweek.
642 PM CDT MON OCT 3 2016 Gusty southeast winds and warm temperatures will continue ahead of a cold front. Subjective 12Z upper air analysis indicates an upper- level trough digging into the Great Basin, with 500mb height falls up to around 150m centered in UT. Downstream ridge axis extended from the Great lakes into the mid-MS River basin, and also from central NE southward through KS/western OK/central TX. Upper-level jet around the base of the trough was noted with speeds up to 90kt behind the trough and 90-95kt ahead.
WSW winds will pick up and become quite breezy by mid-morning as a Pacific cold front sweeps across the area. Low level moisture east of an eastward-moving Pacific cold front could result in some MVFR stratus toward sunrise Tuesday.
Low pressure area is circulating off of the British Columbia coast. As the low moves east south east the next couple of days some moisture from the base of the low will clip the northern parts of the state.
759 PM EDT MON OCT 3 2016 High pressure through mid week. Upper trough and an associated cold front push across the area this upcoming weekend. Models indicate an upper ridge will develop across the area late tonight and remain in place through Tuesday. High pressure.
941 PM EDT MON OCT 3 2016 High pressure through mid week. Upper trough and an associated cold front push across the area this upcoming weekend. Models indicate an upper ridge will develop across the area late tonight and remain in place through Tuesday. High pressure.
829 PM EDT Mon Oct 3 2016 High pressure will remain across the region through the end of the week. High pressure will build south across the region overnight. High pressure will bring favorable radiational cooling conditions. Based on the lowered temperatures, have issued a Frost Advisory for southern Piscataquis, central Penobscot and northern Washington counties where the growing season is still ongoing. Tuesday will feature plenty of sunshine with highs near 60 across the area as high pressure on the surface and ridging aloft builds across the region.
730 PM EDT Mon Oct 3 2016 Dry and warmer than normal weather is expected in the short term portion of the forecast, as a ridge of high pressure remains entrenched across the eastern third of the CONUS. They all start off in good agreement with the upper level low associated with Hurricane Matthew and a deep trough sliding east along the international border of the Northern Plains. However, by the end of the week they start to diverge with the ECMWF slower to move Matthew north and less aggressive with its Northern Plains trough.
859 PM CDT MON OCT 3 2016 Quiet weather continues this evening with the upper level ridge dominating the weather pattern over us. However, a surface cold front, and associated upper level trough, will move into and through your area, ushering in minimal if any pcpn.
834 PM EDT Mon Oct 3 2016 Building high pressure will maintain dry and warm weather for the week. High pressure will build for Tuesday and return a mostly sunny sky.
Low level moisture east of an eastward-moving Pacific cold front could result in some MVFR stratus toward sunrise Tuesday.
732 PM EDT Mon Oct 3 2016 Issued at725 PM EDT Mon Oct 3 2016 Weak high pressure will drift east of the area Tuesday allowing a warmer southwest wind to push temperatures back into the lower 70s.
/issued 906 AM EDT THU JUN 30 2016/ A moist and unstable air mass covering the forecast area this morning (via 12Z Raob data) combined with daytime heating and the sea breeze circulations will lead to another round of showers and thunderstorms over the region during the day with the highest rain chances and coverage of storms expected over inland areas during the afternoon and evening hours as the east and west coast sea breeze boundaries move inland.
A very dynamic trough is surging southward through the Midwestern state within a broader trough spread across the eastern U. This trough will swing through southern Michigan after midnight as it rotates around the parent upper low over northern Ontario. Overall little has changed in the model output regarding this trough/frontal passage. The main changes in the output comes from their struggles in resolving potential cyclogenesis in the base of the trough right as it pivots from a positive tilt to negative tilt over the state. High pressure will quickly return to the region on Friday bringing improved condition.
So will have the highest pops in the far west and southwest today and tonight, decreasing to just slight chance or no pops across north central and central Nebraska. As far as temperatures for today, expecting highs to climb into the lower to mid 80s as fairly warm H850mb temperatures of 18 to 20C remain across the area.
1030 AM PDT THU JUN 30 2016 The persistent upper level ridge, responsible for the current warm conditions, begins to weaken today into this weekend, leading to increasing westerly winds and eventually moderating temperatures back to near normal temperatures.
107 PM EDT THU JUN 30 2016 High pressure through Thursday. A high pressure keeps weather conditions dry under calm or light and variable winds. A high pressure is in control at least for today. Clouds start to increase overnight as a cold front approaches from the west.
Mid level longwave trough stretches across the eastern CONUS southward into the northern Gulf of Mexico. At the surface a weak trough will remain across our western sections with a quasistationary front meandering just north of the CWA in central AL/GA. Local Hi res models depict two zones of convection initiation occurring: 1) The typical seabreeze this morning moving northward with time and 2) At the edge of the higher moisture ahead of the front across our AL and western GA counties which will slowly move eastward.
Temperatures are in the low to mid 80s. A weak cold front, currently located from Yuma, Colorado to Russell Springs, Kansas, is moving south-southwest. This cold front should continue it's slow movement to the southwest through this afternoon. Aloft, a weak MCV (mesoscale convective vortex) was moving across the Rockies and is now sliding east over the High Plains.
131 PM EDT THU JUN 30 2016 High pressure in control through tonight. A high pressure keeps weather conditions dry under calm or light and variable winds. A high pressure is in control at least for today. Clouds start to increase overnight as a cold front approaches from the west.
441 PM EDT THU JUN 30 2016 Weak high pressure will build over the region tonight then move east on Friday. A warm front will cross the area Friday night.
Water vapor imagery is showing drier air being advected into South Central Texas at midlevels tonight on the eastern periphery of mid-to-upper level ridge centered over the Four Corners region. A repeat is expected for Friday with a smaller portion of the Coastal Plains having a chance for isolated storms as drier air and subsidence from the approaching ridge further decreases instability and increases temperatures a few degrees above seasonal normals.
115 PM EDT THU JUN 30 2016 High pressure will maintain dry conditions before rain chances increase on Friday. The general picture suggests light rain will be possible in the morning ahead of the front in a warm-advection pattern, with showers and storms developing along the system's advancing cold front Friday afternoon. Any precipitation will wane quickly Friday evening as the cold front continues its southeastward movement and the upper wave departs. High pressure is expected to build in its wake, leading to a drier and cooler Friday night.
308 PM EDT THU JUN 30 2016 High pressure will move over the region tonight and be followed by an approaching cold front on Friday.
257 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2016 A cold front currently across central Kansas will try to move into northeast Oklahoma Tonight into Friday increasing the chances of showers and thunderstorms across areas north of Interstate 40 into Friday.
Otherwise, have trended twd the cooler guidance for temps tonight. This area continues to be on the srn edge of the higher amounts. There should be a several hour window before another round of convection assoc with a cold front moves into KCOU and KUIN. A cold front will approach the terminal this evng representing the next chance for SHRAs/TSTMs. A secondary cold front pushes thru dry prior to sunrise swinging the winds around to the N.
High temperatures were generally unchanged from the previous forecast, with a few spots maybe a tad cooler today. Interesting to note, however, the high-res guidance (HRRR & WRFARW) is indicating that mixing will be able to occur this afternoon, with 40s dewpoints possible in many locations. We'll keep an eye on those trends through the afternoon, as it may cause a few spots to actually be warmer than forecast this afternoon.
An upper level ridge currently resides over northeast Montana which is lending to warm and dry weather conditions.
151 PM EDT THU JUN 30 2016 High pressure will keep our weather mostly sunny today with highs near 80. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible on Friday as a cold front moves through the northeast.
311 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2016 A Canadian high pressure will slide southeastward across the region tonight through Friday. This high presssure will bring cool and dry conditions to the CWA with lows tonight falling into the 40s. Highs on Friday will be slightly warmer than today.
113 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2016 Showers and thunderstorms are expected along the cold front. Early morning water vapor imagery together with GFS 500mb heights and winds identified a positively tilted trough along the International border. Over the next 12 hours, that trough will take on a negative tilt, while the upper level jet rounding the base of the trough increases, and together these should strengthen the forcing with this wave and increase the coverage of showers and thunderstorms along the cold front in southeast MN and western WI. Couple that with freezing levels around 9500 ft, and the result it storms capable of producing severe hail. The low level shear is weak, so not anticipating a widespread damaging wind threat with these storms.
A weak cold front will slide into OK Panhandle and through KGUY at around 06Z tonight, then lift north in KS by late Friday morning.
Had a cold front move across the High Plains last night. This cold front has stalled near the Laramie Range early this morning and seems to be located just east of the city of Laramie at this hour. It will be cooler today with highs in the 70's to low 80's. although some locations along and near the Pine Ridge and Cheyenne Ridge may struggle to reach 65 during the day due to persistent low clouds and fog. Although it will be cooler. Increased POP between 50 to 65 percent across most of the area with the exception of the lower elevations across Albany and Carbon county.
Expect the building upper ridge/additional drying/limited or lack of surface forcing to preclude convection Friday Night.
152 PM EDT THU JUN 30 2016 Aviation High pressure will move east today and clouds will be on the increase by afternoon. Then some showers and thunderstorms can be expected tonight as a cold front moves though. Only forecast issue in the near term is timing the POPs through with the cold front tonight.
SHORT TERM (Now through Friday night): Upper-level high pressure currently centered over New Mexico will exert an increasingly dominant effect over Deep South Texas over the next 36 hours as the high center migrates toward NE Texas. Although isolated showers and thunderstorms have formed early this afternoon along and just behind the sea-breeze front, appears that overall the area is already under the influence of subsidence and drying aloft on the front side of the upper ridge. Afternoon temps in the Lower and Mid Valley rise to the mid-upper 90's.
206 PM EDT THU JUN 30 2016 High pressure lingering over the area today will keep fair weather over the region through this evening. A cold front will move through the area tonight, bringing chances for showers and thunderstorms.
306 PM PDT THU JUN 30 2016 A few thunderstorms are possible today south of Hawthorne, with the threat of storms expanding farther north on Friday as weak upper low approaches the Sierra.
354 PM EDT THU JUN 30 2016 A ridge of high pressure over the region this afternoon will slide off the Mid Atlantic Coast tonight. An approaching cold front will interact with this moisture and create scattered showers and thunderstorms Friday afternoon and early Friday evening. A large area of high pressure will build over the Northeast states and Lower Great Lakes region for the long holiday weekend and bring mostly sunny and dry weather. A warm front may drift north toward the Mason.
Friday is still on track to a little warmer than today, and most of the region will be dry except for southwest Montana where a few storms are possible.
201 PM EDT THU JUN 30 2016 High pressure in control through tonight. A high pressure keeps weather conditions dry under calm or light and variable winds. A cold front approaches from the west later on Friday.
343 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2016 Current surface analysis places cold front dropping through the upper midwest into the central plains with high pressure dropping near the Saskatchewan/Manitoba border into North Dakota. Upper level analysis places low near James Bay with ridge over the Rockies. On Friday, a short wave gradually makes its way through the upper ridge bringing low thunderstorm chances to portions of western North Dakota. Temperatures will be a bit warmer as upper ridge pushes a bit towards the east, though readings over most locations will be a tad below normal.
338 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2016 (Tonight and Friday) The center of the upper ridge, which is currently over eastern New Mexico, will migrate southeast across West Central Texas on Friday. Low temperatures tonight will mainly be in the lower 70s, with a few upper 60s possible in the river valleys across southern counties. High temperatures on Friday will be mainly in the lower and middle 90s. (Friday Night through Thursday) Upper level high will be centered over the Southwest US for the weekend, creating northwest flow across the area.
Low clouds continue to linger over the area in the wake of a cold front that passed through overnight. Latest water vapor imagery depicts an upper low circulating over southern Hudson bay with an attending trough swinging across northern and eastern ND. A surface cold front was located from near Hettinger to Linton and east to Oakes.
The cloud cover did burn-off over San Francisco and parts of the Monterey Bay Region (more so compared to yesterday) allowing for slightly warmer temperatures compared to 24 hours ago across these locations. Inland temperatures cool slightly Friday into the 4th of July Holiday Weekend as the upper level ridge aloft weakens and mid/upper level troughing deepens along the West Coast. SFO Bridge Approach. High pressure over the eastern pacific will keep gusty north winds over the coastal waters. High pressure will weaken thursday evening bringing lighter winds to the inner coastal waters and improving sea conditions for the weekend.
(Issued 322 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2016) A large ridge of high pressure extended southwest out of the mid Atlantic states into the Tennessee valley region this afternoon. The short term models are in decent agreement involving a weak cold front moving through the lower Ohio valley region tonight. The boundary should lose its strength and weaken considerably as it attempts to move into the surface to upper level ridge axis through Friday.
236 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2016 Sharp H5 Trof makes Great Lakes passage tonight. It will drive a cold front across the PAH FA, with associated showers/storms, currently seen across central ptns IL-MO, accompanying its passage.
High temperatures today should range from the low 80s in the northwest (Yuma) to the upper 80s to around 90 from McCook to Hill City to Tribune. May be a bit high with my low 70 to around 80 degree high temperature forecast as the NAM (only model) a bit cooler with low 60s to low 70s.
531 PM EDT THU JUN 30 2016 High pressure over the mid atlantic states will shift to the east coast on Friday. Meanwhile a cold front over the upper Mississippi Valley will move southeast across the area tomorrow.
Tonight Through Friday A high pressure ridge aloft extending from the Desert Southwest north across the Great Basin into the Northern Rockies will pump subtropical moisture north. Friday Night Through Thursday The high pressure ridge will slowly shift east and will be pushed south by a series of pacific low pressure troughs moving across the Pacific Northwest and Northern Rockies.
235 PM PDT THU JUN 30 2016 A large high pressure ridge prevail over the Great Basin for the remainder of the week. The high will weaken over the weekend allowing for temperatures to lower to near normal. In addition, temperatures have been trending several degrees cooler than this time yesterday, at least north of Kern County, as the high pressure has begun to weaken. The high pressure will further weaken and allow temperatures to lower a little more on Friday while an upper level disturbance moves over northern California.
246 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2016 Upper level short wave energy will drop southeast across the southern Great Lakes from late this afternoon through tonight and will drive a cold front southeast through the Missouri Ozarks. Temperatures will be slightly cooler over most areas with highs generally in the lower to middle 80s. Dew points on Friday will vary quite a bit across the Ozarks with values ranging from the lower 60s across central Missouri to around 70 degrees across far southwestern Missouri.
223 PM EDT THU JUN 30 2016 A pressure ridge will extend from the Atlantic westward into the Gulf of Mexico through the weekend. A weak pressure trough will linger in the forecast area. Hail is a lower concern as freezing level remains around 14 kft. Overnight lows will generally be in the lower 70s. The models display lee-side troughing in the forecast area with surface ridging to the south. Expect thunderstorms mainly associated with heating and convergence into the trough or into a possible seabreeze front that may move well inland. The GFS and ECMWF display surface ridging extending from the Atlantic westward into the Gulf of Mexico through the medium-range period. The models keep a frontal zone mainly just north of the forecast area with lee-side troughing in the area.
656 PM EDT THU JUN 30 2016 High pressure will move over the region tonight and be followed by an approaching cold front on Friday.
248 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2016 19z/2pm surface analysis shows a cold front extending from central Wisconsin southwestward to Nebraska. Rain chances will come to an end from northwest to southeast after midnight as the cold front settles south of the area by early Friday morning.
638 PM EDT THU JUN 30 2016 A pressure ridge will extend from the Atlantic westward into the Gulf of Mexico through the weekend. A weak pressure trough will linger in the forecast area. Overnight lows will generally be in the lower 70s. The models display lee-side troughing in the forecast area with surface ridging to the south. Expect thunderstorms mainly associated with heating and convergence into the trough or into a possible seabreeze front that may move well inland. The GFS and ECMWF display surface ridging extending from the Atlantic westward into the Gulf of Mexico through the medium-range period. The models keep a frontal zone mainly just north of the forecast area with lee-side troughing in the area.
700 PM EDT THU JUN 30 2016 Wavy cold front slowly pushing into eastern upper MI, and ne and central WI. But clearly the incoming cold front and associated convection is the primary precip threat.
107 PM EDT THU JUN 30 2016 A pressure ridge will extend from the Atlantic westward into the Gulf of Mexico through the weekend. A weak pressure trough will linger in the forecast area. Hail is a lower concern as freezing level remains around 14 kft. Afternoon high temperatures will generally be in the lower 90s with overnight lows in the lower 70s. The models display lee-side troughing in the forecast area with surface ridging to the south. Expect thunderstorms mainly associated with heating and convergence into the trough or into a possible seabreeze front that may move well inland. The GFS and ECMWF display surface ridging extending from the Atlantic westward into the Gulf of Mexico through the medium-range period. The models keep a frontal zone mainly just north of the forecast area with lee-side troughing in the area.