Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
910 PM CST Thu Jan 12 2017 A cold front is moving through the Mid-South and is currently roughly parallel and just south of I-40. Given how rapid cold air is filtering into the Bootheel will keep the slight chance of freezing rain in the forecast for northern Randolph. with the approaching arctic cold front just passing through Malden Missouri.
Main upper low responsible for this weekend's storm system is currently centered across northern California. Currently towards the sfc, expansive area of high pressure has chilled temps down to the 20s this afternoon, falling into the teens tonight as the ridge axis gradually slides eastward on Friday.
The weekend begins with a deep upper low off the southern Pacific coast providing mainly upper level zonal flow across the region. resulting in highs in the 20s (or even pushing the low 30s) and lows in the teens (above zero!). High pressure will dominate the region tonight. with southerly winds returning tonight/tomorrow as the high pushes southeast.
523 PM CST Thu Jan 12 2017 A strong cold front has pushed southeast to near the Ohio river at mid afternoon, taking rain showers southeast of CWA. 5k ft over CWA were breaking up in nw IL closer to 1033 mb arctic high pressure over western ND and ridging into the central plains. Latest forecast models take cold front southeast across KY/TN tonight as arctic high pressure moves into the upper MS river valley Friday morning. Also will see light freezing rain spread into areas south of a Jacksonville to Mattoon to Robinson line by late Friday morning and getting as far north as a Lincoln to Danville line by sunset Friday.
945 PM EST Thu Jan 12 2017 A cold front across the southern end of the area will continue to move south tonight.
Minor adjustments to hourly temps needed in southeast ND this evening, where temps are slightly warmer than nocturnal trends. The weekend begins with a deep upper low off the southern Pacific coast providing mainly upper level zonal flow across the region. resulting in highs in the 20s (or even pushing the low 30s) and lows in the teens (above zero!).
Water temperatures should still be a bit warmer than dew point temperatures, so chose not to add mention at this time.
Winds are from the northeast at 5 to 15 mph and will gradually shift to the east as a weak cold front pushes into the region. The upper level flow will shift to the southwest as that low pressure system deepens into Arizona.
Some erosion has already begun and will likely continue into this evening, but stratus and freezing fog will fill-in overnight creating a very complicated low temperature forecast. However those who are stuck in the clouds and freezing fog will experience very little warming each day with a very narrow difference between high and low temperatures (5 to 10 degrees in most cases).
923 PM EST Thu Jan 12 2017 Colder temperatures will spread across the region overnight into Friday behind a departing cold front.
650 PM CST Thu Jan 12 2017 Minor adjustments to hourly temps needed in southeast ND this evening, where temps are slightly warmer than nocturnal trends. The weekend begins with a deep upper low off the southern Pacific coast providing mainly upper level zonal flow across the region. resulting in highs in the 20s (or even pushing the low 30s) and lows in the teens (above zero!).
The upper ridge over the southeast states will keep central Alabama in a warm and somewhat humid air mass with afternoon temperatures near record values. The ridge will also suppress rain activity, although there will likely be a few showers north of I-20 tonight and Friday where low level moisture and convergence will be higher. Higher values of low level moisture will continue around the western periphery of the ridge, and low clouds will likely form again late tonight for areas along and north of I-20.
freezing drizzle or light freezing rain may impact mainly southeast KS after 09z with the potential for all rain across far southeast KS by 17-18z as temperatures rise above freezing.
1050 PM EST Thu Jan 12 2017 Upper high building to our south will provide fair and warm conditions through Friday.
Piece of energy spun off this low moving northeast towards Carbon County.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 55 66 53 67 / 30 50 20 20 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 52 60 51 64 / 50 50 20 20 Oak Ridge, TN 52 58 51 64 / 60 50 30 30 Tri Cities Airport, TN 48 58 48 60 / 50 50 40 40.
A low pressure system moving south along the California coast will continue to spread moisture into the region through Friday night. The upper low currently positioned along the central California coast will continue south along the coast through late Friday night.
SSTs across our nearshore and bays have climbed into the low/middle-60s, upper-60s in a few isolated spots. The dewpoints advecting in are only a couple to few degrees warmer than the SSTs and even as the surface winds back a bit more towards the east/110-130 degrees, the moisture content just doesn't look as good.
There is a small possibility for some patchy freezing drizzle to develop over south central Kansas during the afternoon hours.
While some light showers continue to wrap around the north side of the low and into the mountains of Eastern Mendocino county, the remainder of the region has completely dried out, and this trend is expected to continue through tomorrow. Temperatures are expected to remain on the cool side the next couple of days, particularly overnight tonight when widespread freezing temperatures are expected across the interior and even a few places along the immediate coast.
/issued 208 PM CST Thu Jan 12 2017/ Upper trough over the West coast will develop into a closed low and dig south to Mexico Friday before swinging east.
The pattern setup has an upper level low pressure system working its along south along the California coastline. Later tonight as the low drops south and drifts a bit east the wind flow will turn out of the south. Most notably with the higher elevation snow in each of those areas. As this low dips south tonight, flow turns (or pivots) out of the south.
721 PM EST Thu Jan 12 2017 A cold front will bring sharply colder weather beginning tonight.
After the passage of a weak cold front, Arctic high will settle into the area tonight. Given that dry air from the Arctic ridge in the northeast area will persist, snow will have difficulties to keep developing across southwest Minnesota.
For tonight, the Arctic high pressure will be located over the region with winds becoming light and variable.
High pressure over the region will allow cold dry weather to continue through Friday. A weakening ridge along with milder northwest flow aloft will allow temperatures to moderate over the weekend.
Earlier in the evening a cyclone set up with increasing winds from the NNW that aided in bringing a trace to 1 inch of snow across the Denver Metro. Temperatures have dropped into the teens and lower 20s across the plains with snow turning light over the high country. Surface cold front has already backed into the Front Range and as consequently developed a strengthening denver cyclone with stronger northerly winds developing over central and western portions of the denver area. There is some fog potential later tonight and early Friday morning due to the fresh snow on the ground and continued cyclone over the Denver area. Attention for the weekend will then turn toward deep upper low driving south into Baja.
with the approaching arctic cold front just passing through Malden Missouri.
IFR ceilings in light freezing rain expected to develop around 14z at AMA, with northern terminals remaining MVFR through the day with precipitation being less likely. Thanks to our early morning cold front we have a wide range of temperatures across the Panhandles. The southwestern Texas Panhandles has been able to warm into the lower 60s while the eastern Oklahoma Panhandle hasn't broken into the 40s yet. We will see temperatures fall well below freezing across the area Tonight while isentropic lift brings ample low level moisture into the southeastern Panhandles. This lift could be enough to spark off some patchy freezing drizzle/rain for the southeast just prior to 6 am.
with the sub freezing depth less than 1500 feet. the bulk of the numerical models did a poor job resolving this low-level cold air. with areas of light freezing drizzle or freezing rain developing generally along and north of the I-44 corridor toward daybreak. Have issued a freezing rain advisory for this area. Will allow the initial freezing rain advisory to expire tomorrow at 18z as surface temperatures rise just above freezing.
645 PM EST Thu Jan 12 2017 A cold front will cross the region tonight.
728 PM CST Thu Jan 12 2017 A true arctic cold front moved across the Dakotas and parts of Minnesota this morning.
801 PM EST Thu Jan 12 2017 Colder temperatures will spread across the region overnight into Friday behind a departing cold front.
427 PM CST Thu Jan 12 2017 Around mid afternoon, temperatures ranged from the mid 30s across northwestern Oklahoma to the lower 70s in far southeast parts of the state. After sunset and overnight, temperatures will drop below freezing north of a Shawnee to Lawton and Vernon, Texas line and perhaps farther south. Therefore, there is a risk of some light icing by sunrise Friday, mainly within the Freezing Rain Advisory. Weak isentropic ascent will continue through the day Friday and this will result in mainly scattered areas of light freezing rain and freezing drizzle. Although only light amounts of rain are expected during the day, this may provide the best chance to create problem spots on roads, especially bridges and overpasses.
1002 PM EST Thu Jan 12 2017 A cold front will bring sharply colder weather beginning tonight.
Freezing rain or drizzle will affect the northeast Oklahoma TAF sites later tonight into Friday morning. with the sub freezing depth less than 1500 feet. the bulk of the numerical models did a poor job resolving this low-level cold air. with areas of light freezing drizzle or freezing rain developing generally along and north of the I-44 corridor toward daybreak. Have issued a freezing rain advisory for this area. Will allow the initial freezing rain advisory to expire tomorrow at 18z as surface temperatures rise just above freezing.
/ISSUED 343 PM CST Thu Jan 12 2017/ A cold front was sliding slowly south across North Texas this afternoon. The cold front will remain nearly stationary on Friday as two distinctly different airmasses battle for position.
714 PM EST Thu Jan 12 2017 Dry conditions are expected overnight through Friday as a ridge of high pressure builds into the area behind a cold front.
/Tonight through Friday/ Area of high pressure settling into the region tonight, with bitterly cold air that has been pushing into the state through the day today. As the high moves overhead tonight temperatures to drop below zero across much of the northern CWA. Clouds to increase late tonight with waa aloft as return flow sets up in the low levels.
01 UTC surface analysis shows a NE to SW oriented ridge of high pressure across the Western Atlantic, much like 24 hours ago. The ridge extends a little further westward this evening and this has resulted in light SE winds from early this afternoon now essentially calm across the region.
High pressure will continue to build across the Pacific Northwest through Friday bringing a stretch of dry weather to the region.
A low pressure system moving south along the west coast will continue to spread moisture into the region through Friday.
638 PM EST Thu Jan 12 2017 Aviation High pressure will build in from the northwest and bring fair weather with decreasing cloud cover tonight.
This weekend will see a return to seasonable weather in the wake of a strong cold front. The precipitation type is expected to alternate between mainly rain and freezing rain this weekend.
815 PM EST Thu Jan 12 2017 A cold front will cross the region tonight.
Freezing Rain Advisory until noon CST Friday for OKZ057-058- 060>067.
537 PM CST Thu Jan 12 2017 After the passage of a weak cold front, Arctic high will settle into the area tonight. Given that dry air from the Arctic ridge in the northeast area will persist, snow will have difficulties to keep developing across southwest Minnesota.
Lower clouds in MVFR category below 3 kft developing/affecting parts of Northeast Texas, Southeast Oklahoma, and Southwest Arkansas near a cold front between 13/04Z to 13/07Z and may see light rain or drizzle at times. Surface winds will be South to Southeast 3-8 knots overnight ahead of the cold front moving into the area from the Northwest, with winds shifting to the East or Northeast 5-10 knots with the backdoor front.
400 PM MST Thu Jan 12 2017 Primary near-short term meteorological concerns includes pops, snow amounts, mixed/freezing precipitation potential at times(primarily over far southeastern sections), gusty winds at times and temperatures.
1030 PM EST Thu Jan 12 2017 Upper high building to our south will provide fair and warm conditions through Friday.
This will keep the cooler spots around 56 degrees, while ridgetops cool to the lower 60s. The majority of the short term period will feature warm and dry weather across eastern Kentucky, as a ridge of high pressure remains in place just a bit longer. Tonights weather will feature modest ridge valley temperature differences, with ridgetop lows around 60 expected, while the valleys are forecast to drop into the low to mid 50s. Cloud cover will gradually be on the increase on Monday, as a cold front approaches from the north. Upper level trough over the Northeast CONUS and a strong ridge over the southern Plains and Four Corners region will keep a northwest flow regime in place over our area through the end of the work week, with repeating rounds of showers and thunderstorms a possibility.
Aloft the upper high pressure ridge was centered over the western Plains, while an upper northeast flow was into AR. Temperatures will gradually warm again the first part of the week as the upper high pressure holds over much of the plains.
157 AM EDT MON JUN 20 2016 Dry high pressure will remain across the region through Monday.
330 AM CDT MON JUN 20 2016 We will get a reprieve from the active weather pattern early this week as cooler and drier air has filtered into the region behind yesterday's cold frontal passage. With high pressure spreading in from the west, lots of sunshine is anticipated today with cooler highs in the 70s. Mostly clear conditions will persist tonight with a few of the cooler locations possibly dropping into the upper 40s (low to mid 50s elsewhere).
320 AM EDT MON JUN 20 2016 High pressure will prevail into mid week before shifting south and giving way to a trough of low pressure through late week.
356 AM CDT MON JUN 20 2016 Upper-level ridging will result in minimal rain chances through the week and increasing temperatures. The current upper-level pattern features a strong subtropical ridge centered over the Four Corners region, a progressive west-northwest flow pattern across the northern US, and a cut-off upper low off of the North Carolina coast. The low-level easterly flow will result in dewpoints falling into the upper 50s in most areas today, and keep highs in the upper 80s to around 90. With light winds and a dry air mass, lows should fall into the low to mid 60s tonight. As the Atlantic upper low moves northward and a trough amplifies over the Northeast US, the upper-level flow over Central Alabama will become northwesterly.
Large high pressure ridge centered over the Carolinas continues to usher in drier air on breezy ENE winds. Fairly strong mid-level ridging over the Desert Southwest slowly advances eastward during this time becoming entrenched across the Gulf Coast States by the end of the period. Weak east-west oriented surface ridging will remain across north/north-central FL providing for a light, low-level easterly flow.
/issued 337 PM EDT SUN JUN 19 2016/ High pressure. however summertime northwesterly upper-level flow pattern and the presence of weak surface fronts and troughs in the region continues to support slight chance to chance POPs.
Big picture view of the Nation shows us that a rather broad ridge of high pressure continues to dominate much of the America, resulting in the prevailing westerlies moving up north across the Northern Plains and Great Lakes regions. A trough axis, sweeping east across the Canadian Plains, has forced a cold front south in the Plains States; currently located along a line from the northwest tip of Iowa southwest across Nebraska into northeast Colorado. Couple the low shear and high instability with precipitable water values nearing 2 inches, and strong to marginally severe storms will be possible this afternoon and this evening.
Upper level inverted trough is pushing west, away from southern Texas early this morning. However, only isolated to widely scattered coverage is expected as the Subtropical Ridge builds into Texas. The Subtropical Ridge strengthens over Texas on Tuesday. Expect similar temperatures for today as yesterday, then warmer on Tuesday as Ridge strengthens.
VFR conditions will prevail thru the TAF period as high pressure aloft dominates. /Issued 232 AM CDT MON JUN 20 2016/ Hot and largely dry conditions will continue to prevail through the balance of the forecast period, as upper level high pressure remains in control of the region.
To start off with today, high pressure will still be in control, with its center located just southeast of the state. This will continue to combine with strong ridging aloft to create a very stable atmosphere. A slight increase in moisture will be possible throughout the day, given light southerly flow at the surface, due to our position on the northwest side of the high pressure. A strong upper level low will move southeast across the Hudson Bay in Canada today, with increased troughing expected to expand southward into the Upper Great Lakes region. This will merge with a low off the Atlantic Seaboard by tomorrow, further enhancing the troughing as it continues to dig southward across the eastern half of the conus. A cold front will be exiting to the south as the period starts.
1205 AM CDT MON JUN 20 2016 An upper level area of high pressure is currently over the Plains extending into the area this afternoon. Highs this afternoon will range from the middle 80s to around the 90 degree mark with heat index values in the lower to middle 90s. Monday will almost be a repeat of today, with highs in the upper 80s to the lower 90s and index values in the lower to middle 90s. The upper level ridge will be to the west of the area on Monday setting up an upper level northwest flow pattern over the region. The ridge will then build over the area by the middle of the week allowing highs to warm into the lower to middle 90s each afternoon.
and lowest POPs across the northern CWA where H5 ridging is prog to strengthen. With ridging and lack of available moisture (PWATs around 1.
Another dry start across the Southern Appalachians with an expansive upper level ridge extending across much of the CONUS. Further north, there is a trough moving around the periphery of the ridge across the Northern Plains into southern Canada. At the surface, high pressure continues across the Southeast with light winds. Some of the models try to break out a few isolated showers and storms this afternoon but the low level moisture seems to be overdone with these models having dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s later this afternoon. The pattern begins to shift some tonight as the upper level trough rotates around the periphery of the ridge into the Great Lakes region. This trough will push a cold front across the mid- Mississippi River Valley into the Ohio River Valley.
Anticipating temperatures a few degrees warmer today compared to yesterday mostly in the mid 90s. Additionally, a weak cold front will ooze into northern KS this afternoon/evening, providing a focus for a few thunderstorms over northern KS/southern NE, tracking southeast across northeast KS and northern MO during the evening.
504 AM CDT MON JUN 20 2016 Cold front that brought thunderstorms to the region yesterday will clear the MPX CWA early this morning, with a spectacular weather day expected as we get a low level air feed from a high dropping out of the southern Canadian Rockies. Tonight, the high coming out of Canada will drop down into Iowa. We would probably see some 40s if this high were not coming through on one of the shortest night of the year.
A surface cold front will become nearly stationary early this afternoon just north of the I-70 corridor in north central Kansas. These temperatures are roughly 2C to 4C warmer compared to the temperatures at 00z Monday. The stationary front in north central Kansas is still forecast to lift north northeast on Tuesday as a warm front.
Areas roughly southeast of a Canton to Temple line have the best chance of seeing an isolated shower or storm this afternoon where moisture content is greatest and the influence of the upper ridge is slightly less. On Tuesday, a similar scenario to Monday is expected with temperatures a couple degrees warmer and a slight chance for an afternoon shower or storm mainly across our southeastern zones. Think that only sparse coverage will exist once again with very limited lift available and increasing suppression from the upper ridge building further into our area.
A cold front will drop slowly into the region late today and tonight, bringing the potential for thunderstorms, a few of which could be strong to severe. This boundary will sag to our south tonight into Tuesday as the upper level ridge weakens and northwest flow sets up across the area.
High pressure will extend across the Carolinas today and tonight.
1127 PM MDT SUN JUN 19 2016 High pressure remained stretched across the Desert Southwest to the central High Plains today. This high based moisture appeared insufficient to fuel even isolated storms over the higher terrain late this afternoon and early evening. Another hot day in store Monday as high pressure persists over the region. Marginal flow beneath the ridge suggests light terrain driven winds. This high based moist convection will generate little measurable rainfall and strong outflow winds. Near record heat will continue Tuesday as high pressure remains over the area. Elsewhere, moisture infiltrating the ridge from the east and south will fuel scattered afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms, mainly over higher terrain.
Severe threat looks minimal as freezing levels near 15kft limit large hail potential and stable boundary layer suppresses wind gusts. But more storms are possible in the afternoon as warm front retreats farther north. Then chances diminish from southwest to northeast Tuesday night as warm front lifts well northeast of our area.
Temperatures today will be cooler with highs in the upper 70s north to upper 80s south.
319 AM EDT MON JUN 20 2016 Shower and thunderstorm chances will increase late today and tonight with the approach and passage of a cold front. Expect dry weather for much of the day under upper level ridging. Shower and thunderstorm chances are expected to increase later in the day as the ridge exits and a cold front approaches. The cold front is progged for passage tonight.
Highs today will be in the lower 90s, with overnight lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s.
A surface cold front boundary across central Nebraska will sag south and stall near the Nebraska and Kansas stateline. A warm front lifts to the north across the area during the day Tuesday. The next upper wave with a cold front approaches the forecast area late Tuesday night.
At 850 mb, a strong area of high pressure was located over the eastern US and a weak trough over New Mexico. a sprawling ridge extended from AZ to KS. SE TX lies on the southern edge of the ridge. The GFS and ECMWF look very similar with the position of an expanding 500 mb ridge but the GFS keep developing precip. At first glance, felt the ridge would dominate but fcst soundings show a weak but breakable cap in the 700-500 mb layer and aftn PW values near 2.