Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Short term (Now through Friday night): Water vapor satellite loops and upper air analysis indicate a weak disturbance over Northeast TX with a stronger upper level low pressure area moving into NW Mexico within a split flow pattern over the Southern U. Also, mid/upper level high pressure ridge remains over the SE Atlantic extending west across the Gulf of Mexico. However, a weak surface pressure trough analyzed over the NW and Northern Gulf will provide a light easterly surface to 700mb flow which providing increasing low level moisture and is conducive for sea breeze enhancement.
134 PM EDT Thu Jun 1 2017 High pressure will move into the Ohio Valley today.
Flow splits from there with northern branch going into the Inter- mountain west and ridging over the northern Plains. Southern branch as a trough over the southern Rockies into the Baja Peninsula and westerly flow across much of the northern Gulf of Mexico. A mean trough has developed over the Hudson Bay south to the Great Lakes. Friday through the weekend the first of a couple of troughs move across the southern Rockies into the Plains.
238 PM CDT Thu Jun 1 2017 Weak warm front remains stalled over MO, extending from northwestern MO southeastward to southeastern MO this afternoon. Otherwise, lows in the low to mid 60s. With increasing low level moisture, will be a bit more summer like with humid conditions and highs in the low to mid 80s.
Otherwise, winds will trend west to northwesterly this afternoon into the overnight hours as high pressure moves eastward. throughout Friday morning, as dry air aloft starts to scour out most of the high clouds. Meanwhile, weather today should be nice with high pressure providing very dry conditions and much less wind than the past few days. Frontal boundary will remain over the Saginaw Valley and Thumb Friday, but anticipate only a limited coverage of showers/tstorms as we lose jet support and as instability becomes more limited with the upper ridge to our west sliding closer and warming temperatures aloft. Max temperatures should warm a few degrees again, reaching the low 70s in the northern Thumb, and mid to upper 70s elsewhere.
250 PM EDT Thu Jun 1 2017 A weak cold front will approach from the northwest tonight and move into the area Friday.
649 PM EDT Thu Jun 1 2017 High pressure will maintain benign weather for tonight and much of Friday.
126 PM MDT Thu Jun 1 2017 A ridge aloft remains in place over the central and northern high plains regions during the remainder of today and tonight with a trough moving into the back side of the ridge during the day on Friday. Increased near surface instabilities are coexistent with the higher dewpoints this afternoon and evening. The ridge aloft is keeping this area of instability capped through mid day with no convective elements showing up on radar so far early this afternoon. Expect scattered storms to initiate during the afternoon in the vicinity of the eastern Colorado border area and spread eastward across the forecast area through the late afternoon and early evening as the surface and upper trough progress eastward.
238 PM EDT Thu Jun 1 2017 High pressure will build across the region today and tonight.
Upper trof over the Rockies will lift northeast toward southern Canada on Friday and Friday night. That said the models do maintain that the highest instability/llm will reside over the eastern cwa, but somewhat displaced from any forcing or shear.
114 PM EDT Thu Jun 1 2017 Broad cyclonic flow will continue through the weekend as an upper level low pressure system dominates our weather. Showers return to start the work week as another low pressure system moves in from the west. Cold air advection will bring cooler air with 850mb temps dropping to -1C to +2C supporting highs in the low to mid 60s. Late in the afternoon and into the evening hours a vort max will swing through the base of the upper level low and should provide enough energy and moisture to see some isolated to scattered showers mainly along the international border. Temps will remain on the below normal side throughout as overnight lows are expected to be in the low to mid 40s tonight and only warm to the upper 50s to low 60s on Friday.
101 PM CDT Thu Jun 1 2017 Convection should continue to make northward progress and affect KAUS from 21Z to 01Z, as an upper level trough lifts north along the Texas Coast.
1248 PM CDT Thu Jun 1 2017 Weak diffuse boundary just to the northeast of KSLN continues to slowly lift back to the NE as a warm front. Prefer to go a little on the warmer side for max temps than guidance suggests.
259 PM EDT Thu Jun 1 2017 A cold front will push east of the region tonight.
257 PM CDT Thu Jun 1 2017 This afternoon, scattered showers and thunderstorms continued to develop north of a warm front, with precipitation focused primarily over portions of northeast and east central KS. A brief period of dry conditions is expected tonight through Friday as a mid-level ridge builds into the central U. Despite clearing skies overnight, persistent light southerly flow will keep low temperatures in the low/mid 60s. Upper jet is displaced north across the northern tier/southern Canadian area with mean upper ridge over the central portions of the CONUS retrograding west into the end of the forecast.
135 PM EDT Thu Jun 1 2017 High pressure crosses through Friday.
233 PM EDT Thu Jun 1 2017 Aviation High pressure will provide pleasant weather today and tomorrow with sunshine, highs in the 70s, and low humidity. Low pressure and a warm front will bring periods of showers and thunderstorms over the weekend. Attention in later periods turns to the warm front approaching from the west. This feature has some difficulty advancing into the area as shearing northwest flow aloft persists on the periphery of the Quebec upper low.
213 PM EDT Thu Jun 1 2017 High pressure crosses through Friday.
359 PM EDT Thu Jun 1 2017 Southeast Michigan remains on the fringe of cyclonic NW flow this afternoon as high pressure gradually builds in from the west at the surface. Cyclonic flow aloft will persist through Friday against a background of gradually rising heights as the closed low shifts east. Inland thermal troughing will likely favor some degree of agitated cu development, though dry conditions and weak forcing aloft will again limit shower potential.
543 PM EDT Thu Jun 1 2017 A cold front will push east of the region tonight.
Low-level high pressure and resulting diffluent flow will keep shower/thunderstorm activity limited across the area today. The main axis of convection in the region will continue to lie to our southwest-south along an area of enhanced convergence at the S-SW flank of the low-lvl ridge. For tonight have a slight chance of showers in for our western areas, otherwise dry with lows in the low/mid 60s.
353 PM EDT Thu Jun 1 2017 A weak cold front will approach from the northwest tonight and move into the area Friday.
328 PM CDT Thu Jun 1 2017 Weak trough axis noted across southern Oklahoma has resulted in scattered showers and thunderstorms across southeast Oklahoma. Larger scale upper trough in conjunction with an uncapped environment will keep the area unsettled through the weekend.
1223 PM CDT Thu Jun 1 2017 High pressure will provide another mostly sunny and warm day across central Illinois today. 12z KILX upper air sounding suggests mixing will take place up to about 800mb, yielding afternoon high temperatures in the lower 80s. Upper low continues to spin over northeast Ontario early this morning, with associated fast-moving waves around it passing through the Great Lakes region. Evening model suite continues to favor MCS development over Iowa tonight, but extension further southeast along the incoming upper ridge is not as clear cut. Expansion of the convective complex is expected later Friday night along the warm front lifting northward, although Wisconsin and northeast Illinois are more in line for this.
A weakening trough will push through Utah today, bringing stronger winds and a few thunderstorms. High pressure aloft will return behind the exiting trough for Friday through the upcoming weekend, resulting in hot and dry conditions. Beyond tonight, mid level ridging is forecast to build across the forecast area through the remainder of the short term period, resulting in a warming and drying trend. Large scale subsidence associated with the building ridge will generally suppress convection across the forecast area, although an isolated shower or thunderstorm will remain possible over the western Uintas/Wasatch Plateau.
200 PM MDT Thu Jun 1 2017 A cold front will bring widespread showers and thunderstorms through this evening across western and central Montana. Breezy and slightly cooler conditions are then expected for Friday.
315 PM EDT Thu Jun 1 2017 High pressure will build in across the area through tonight yielding fair weather with seasonable temperatures.
321 PM EDT Thu Jun 1 2017 High pressure will maintain benign weather for tonight and much of Friday.
356 PM EDT Thu Jun 1 2017 High pressure will build into the Ohio Valley today. The high will remain across the region tonight into Friday.
248 PM EDT Thu Jun 1 2017 A weak cold front will approach from the northwest tonight and move into the area Friday.
255 PM CDT Thu Jun 1 2017 Warm front continues to lift northeastward into northeast Missouri this afternoon, while a weak upper wave tracking out of northeast KS is interacting with a weakly unstable environment to the southwest of the front. The highest instability is mainly north of the Missouri River where an agitated cumulus field is developing, and this will remain the favored location for scattered thunderstorms through the late afternoon as the wave passes through. There's a small chance that precipitation could redevelop late tonight in the vicinity of a lingering weak upper level boundary over northern and central Missouri, but most areas should stay dry into Friday as upper level ridging builds in overhead.
there is an upper level trof over the great basin which will slowly move over Eastern Colorado during the afternoon and evening hours. High temperatures will be a few degrees cooler on Friday as the trof moves across the area.
A weakening trough will push through Utah today, bringing stronger winds and a few thunderstorms. High pressure aloft will return behind the exiting trough for Friday through the upcoming weekend, resulting in hot and dry conditions.
An upper level disturbance slides east of the Cascades tonight, bringing a slightly warmer and drier air mass on Friday across the Pacific Northwest.
137 PM EDT Thu Jun 1 2017 High pressure will build into the Ohio Valley today. The high will remain across the region tonight into Friday.
As for temps, lows tonight should generally be around seasonal values in the low to mid 60s, upper 50s Cumberland Plateau Region. Building sfc/upper level ridging influences coming out of the upper midwest will result in ptcldy to moclr skies Tue thru Thu. As for temps, highs on Sun and Mon will generally be in the low to mid 80s, upper 70s Cumberland Plateau Region. After the frontal passage on Mon and as sfc/upper level ridging influences build out of the upper Midwest, a slight CAA scenario will develop across the mid state region Tue into Wed. As ridging influences finally shift eastward, highs and lows for Thu and Thu night will return back to seasonal normal values. Broad area of high pressure covers the region today, with generally light winds and VFR clouds.
MVFR/IFR ceilings expected across area terminals after 02/08Z as low-level moisture increases across the lower levels. This feature will spread low level clouds and precipitation across the region today keeping daytime high temperatures in the lower 80s across the area.
/TW/ Overall a cloudy and cooler day is in store as rain and storm chances will increase areawide throughout the morning through the afternoon. In addition, had to lower temperatures into the lower 80s due to widespread clouds/increasing rain chances.
Hi-res short term models continue to have some issues resolving overnight precip potential with some sheared energy as it moves eastward from the lower Mississippi Valley.
But by the end of the period it may very well end up in a similar configuration to what we have now--a ridge in the west and a trough in the east. The most active portion of the period will be during the weekend, when a narrow but energetic band of westerlies briefly undercuts the upper ridge to our northwest. Rising upper heights with the departure of the current eastern trough will allow for mainly dry conditions the next couple days.
The cold front from yesterday has stalled out over the Northern Rockies, with the upper level front remaining just east of Missoula and the Bitterroot valleys. The area of strongest convection will be along and east of the upper level cold front affecting large portions of Granite, Powell, Deer Lodge, and Silver Bow counties including Butte, Deer Lodge, Anaconda, and Ovando. Friday, showers will be in the morning as a ridge builds over the area again.
An excerpt from the National Hurricane Center's Tropical Weather Outlook from this morning listing the names for this season is included below: The list of names for 2017 is as follows: Name Pronunciation Name Pronunciation ------------------------------------------------------------- Arlene ar-LEEN Lee lee Bret bret Maria ma-REE-ah Cindy SIN-dee Nate nait Don dahn Ophelia o-FEEL-ya Emily EH-mih-lee Philippe fee-LEEP Franklin FRANK-lin Rina REE-nuh Gert gert Sean shawn Harvey HAR-vee Tammy TAM-ee Irma ER-mah Vince vinss Jose ho-ZAY Whitney WHIT-nee Katia KAH-tyah One tropical cyclone, Tropical Storm Arlene, already formed this year in April. Additionally, tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days for the North Atlantic, Caribbean Sea, and Gulf of Mexico.
136 PM EDT Thu Jun 1 2017 High pressure will provide quiet weather today and through most of Friday.
With the low confidence on how things will evolve, will keep PoPs in the chance category. with upper ridge eventually developing over the western U.
305 PM CDT Thu Jun 1 2017 Mainly clear skies tonight as a weak upper ridge over the Northern and Central Plains. An upper trough will advance toward the high plains Friday afternoon with height falls and steepening lapse rates.
Otherwise storms already firing over the higher elevation and expect development of storms to spread this afternoon and evening.
Primary cold front does not make actual passage until Sunday evening, so until then, we'll be continuing pops along/ahead of the boundary, and this includes a continued slight risk of severe again for mainly Sunday afternoon/early evening.
Upper level analysis places low over the Manitoba/Ontario border with ridge building over the Sierra into the Pacific Northwest. Multiple short wave noted rotating around the low. Otherwise, a quiet night is expected as upper low works its way to the south-southeast. Upper low will work easterly near Lake Superior on Monday, bringing shower chances mainly to central and eastern portions of North Dakota. Quieter weather returns to start the work week as ridge tries to work its way into the area, bringing a modest warming trend.
As the day goes by and we enter into the afternoon and evening period, a cold front is forecast to push across the Hill Country and produce strong to severe thunderstorms.
Deep layer ridging will persist for Sunday with the center of the upper level ridge sliding just south of the CWA tomorrow. While moisture will increase for Sunday, with the ridging and lack of forcing, dry conditions will continue through the remainder of the weekend. The upper ridging will shift eastward on Monday as an upper level trough digs into the Great Lakes. A cold front associated with this will sink into the southeast Sunday night into Monday with it situated across the northern portion of the CWA or just north of the CWA on Monday.
A ridge of high pressure remains over the PacNW today and will produce another mostly sunny, hot, dry day similar to yesterday.
651 AM EDT Sun May 28 2017 Ridging over the region will weaken on Sunday as a frontal boundary slowly slides into the area.
High pressure will slowly build across the region through the remainder of the holiday weekend, resulting in a warming trend extending into the middle of the week. A fairly high amplitude upper ridge extends from central NV nwd into srn BC early this morning with a dry stable airmass over UT. The upper high shifts to the UT/NV border on Mon and continues the gradual warming trend with temps warming another 5 degrees or so. Isolated afternoon buildups are again possible over the mtns with a small uptick in coverage over the south closest to the 700 mb thermal ridge axis which extends from central NV to central AZ. The upper ridge shifts overhead Tue with some additional warming and another slight increase in terrain based convection especially over the south along the thermal ridge axis which shifts into swrn UT.
A ridge of high pressure will be the dominant feature over the Northern Rockies through the remainder of the holiday weekend and into the first part of the coming week.
Upper level ridge firmly in place, but the question is how far east will it shove the instability and moisture that will generate weak showers and thunderstorms on the eastern side of the high--especially the first two days. By Tue the upper level ridge is pushed far enough south where some instablity and moisture enter the ridge and spread across the central Idaho mountains and the northern and eastern highlands for afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms.
This will all occur ahead of a surface cold front that will drop south across the region through tonight. Temperatures should again recover into the lower to middle 80s today.
A little more moisture by afternoon will lead to some convective cloud development, but a warmer layer around 500 mb should limit the depth. Most likely area is over the mountain ridges and east slopes, and also perhaps in the northeast corner this evening as a weak ripple in the flow moves by with slight cooling aloft and a little surge of north winds. There is a substantial upper ridge initially over the Great Basin northward well into western Canada on Monday.
High pressure will begin building across the area behind a cold front which will move through the area this morning. The airmass behind the cold front is drier more than it is cooler. in some cases it might actually be a little warmer where there's more insolation than yesterday. Carney Will continue to keep a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms on Monday afternoon and evening as a cold front moves southeast across the area.
247 AM CDT Sun May 28 2017 Positively tilted upper trof and associated cold front moving across the Southern Plains this morning responsible for ongoing line of storms along the Red River of TX/OK into central AR. Presence of outflow along with the advancement of the cold front and daytime heating will allow for storms to redevelop in the I-20 corridor this aftn. Front will stall by this evening, as the embedded trof lifts newd away from our region. Approaching upper trof and associated cold front during the weekend will bring additional chances for rain. Aloft we are SW 25-55KTS in the low levels on our VAD. MVFR stratus will meet convection from the N before daybreak with a cold front on approach, widespread shwrs/tstms from 09-15Z will decay. The cold front will move closer but not through until Sunday night.
Given the amount of cloud cover and that SW surface wind will just be advecting old cold pool air from overnight convection, feel the lower instability values are a better bet.
The above-mentioned stacked cyclone will move slowly SE, crossing the Northern Great Lakes on Mon before lifting E/NE over Southern Ontario. This would allow a high-amplitude mid-upper ridge situated along the West Coast to move VERY SLOWLY east over the Western U. Mon Night-Tue Night: A couple of weak mid-level short waves will sprint SE from the Western Dakotas that'll kick a cold front S/SE into KS on Mon.
The mesoscale models suggest that another broken band of showers may shift east through the area this afternoon, with a secondary cold front and perhaps some differential cyclonic vorticity advection. Highs should be around or in the lower 70s across most of the area. Lows should remain in the lower to middle 50s.
Lingering showers/storms can be expected mainly over SERN AR later in the PD as a cold front lingers in that area of the state. More organized convection was over MO and rotating around the upper ridge. Timing of the upper storm system appears to be late evening in northwest AR, to midnight over more northern AR, then as the upper lift and cold front gradually sag south, additional convection will be seen over all of AR after midnight to Sunday morning. On Sunday, the cold front gradually sags to southern AR and focuses the convection over that region.
637 AM EDT Sun May 28 2017 Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb closed low near Lake Winnipeg with a 500 mb trough over the northern and central plains this morning. Will also continue with likely pops in the afternoon and have the lowest pops across the north and go with chance pops tonight. The main forecast highlights are a cloudy and cooler Memorial Day, with chances for lingering showers across much of the area, and some thunder possible across the south central and eastern portions of Upper Michigan.
405 AM CDT Sun May 28 2017 A cold front was located from Western Texas through South Central and East Central Oklahoma into Northwest Arkansas and extended northeast into Eastern Missouri early this morning. scattered showers and thunderstorms will remain possible over far Southeast Oklahoma into West Central Arkansas through the morning hours and are expected to exit the CWA with the exiting cold front. Behind the cold front. Cloud cover should also begin to clear out from west to east into this evening as an upper level trof axis. associated with a closed low drifting southeast toward the Great Lakes Region.
321 AM EDT Sun May 28 2017 Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb closed low near Lake Winnipeg with a 500 mb trough over the northern and central plains this morning. Will also continue with likely pops in the afternoon and have the lowest pops across the north and go with chance pops tonight. The main forecast highlights are a cloudy and cooler Memorial Day, with chances for lingering showers across much of the area, and some thunder possible across the south central and eastern portions of Upper Michigan.
325 AM EDT Sun May 28 2017 Ridging over the region will weaken on Sunday as a frontal boundary slowly slides into the area.
345 AM CDT Sun May 28 2017 (Today and Tonight) Cold front had moved south of I-20 at 3 AM and should south of I-10 by 10 AM this morning. Cooler and cloudy otherwise behind the front today, with highs in the lower/mid 80s. It will be slightly cooler tonight, with lows in the upper 50s north to lower 60s south.
343 AM CDT Sun May 28 2017 Cold front moved through overnight pretty much as forecast. The cooler air behind the front will lower daytime high temperatures to the upper 70s or lower 80s this afternoon.
329 AM CDT Sun May 28 2017 Fairly strong westerlies aloft were present tonight between mean ridging to our south and Canadian closed low centered near Lake Winnipeg. Convection initiated first along the dryline and then along a southward moving cold front. Cooler temperatures (around normal for late May) are expected today, along with drier/less humid air mass.
340 AM EDT Sun May 28 2017 A low pressure system is expected to cause thunderstorms as it lifts northeast across our area this afternoon. Storms will move out of the area tonight but a few more may develop Memorial Day afternoon as another weak trough moves through.
Aloft we are SW 25-55KTS in the low levels on our VAD. MVFR stratus will meet convection from the N before daybreak with a cold front on approach, widespread shwrs/tstms from 09-15Z will decay. The cold front will move closer but not through until Sunday night. HRRR model suggests bulk of the convection to remain out of the ArkLaTex through 3 AM before a cold front slides south across the I-30 corridor.