Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
SNOW AND POSSIBLE LIGHT FREEZING RAIN HIGHLIGHT THE SHORT TERM. EARLY THIS MORNING AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WAS TRAVERSING MONTANA. THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN PUSHING INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING. BRIEF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN MAY FALL ACROSS SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA EARLY THIS MORNING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A WARMER LAYER JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE LEADING TO MELTING OF ICE. SURFACE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST REMAIN AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING. AS SOON AS THE SUN COMES UP THIS THREAT SHOULD END AS ROAD AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING. WHERE SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEAR THE FREEZING THRESHOLD MOST OF THE DAY ALL SNOW OR A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW IS LIKELY.
HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING ALOFT AND THE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN DRY EXCEPT FOR SNOW OVER THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. THE HIGH WIND WARNING ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT DOES NOT LOOK AS GOOD AS IT DID YESTERDAY AND HAVE BEEN TEMPTED TO CANCEL IT.
We will probably add sprinkles to the grids here for the rest of the afternoon and continue to adjust toward the short term models, which did begin trending the highs for today downward with this mornings 12z run. For Thursday, slightly cooler temperatures will be found in the low to mid 60s with increasing high level cloudiness.
1201 PM CST WED MAR 2 2016 18Z TAF CYCLE A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE THREE TAF SITES BY THIS EVENING ALLOWING FOR THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS TO BECOME NORTHWEST AND NORTH AFTER 00Z THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BACK INTO THE 60S AND LOWER 70S BEHIND A COLD FRONT.
still appears to be all liquid rain due to temperatures above freezing at lower levels.
THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE LATER ON TODAY AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY MOVE OFF TO THE EAST ALLOWING FOR ONSHORE FLOW TO RESUME. WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S OUT WEST TO MIDDLE 70S ACROSS THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS. WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 90S NEAR LAREDO AND ACROSS THE EASTERN BRUSH COUNTRY.
Instability parameters keep thunder chances just outside (mainly south) of PAH FA thru the event, but with the surface/upper Low tracks across the FA, wouldnt be shocked to see an isolated stroke.
While the end of the low clouds is in sight, don't think we'll see the low clouds breaking up in earnest until after sunrise from west to east so extended flurry mention time frame. Tonight a northern stream low pressure system will dive south into the Ohio Valley bringing precipitation to our region after midnight.
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE STATE TOMORROW. LARGE SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF THE LOW AND SFC BASED LIFT WITH THE FRONT SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO GREATER POPS THAN IS PRESENT IN THE EXISTING FORECAST.
A FAST MOVING WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH DURING THE PERIOD.
/ISSUED 400 AM CST WED MAR 2 2016/ THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED ACROSS THE REGION YESTERDAY WAS LOCATED JUST OFF THE UPPER TEXAS COAST EARLY THIS MORNING. IT WILL SEND ANOTHER COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO WILL BE ALSO POSSIBLE ALONG THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
The weak trough continues to push east also with winds shifting to the northwest at 5 to 15 mph. For Thursday, slightly cooler temperatures will be found in the low to mid 60s with increasing high level cloudiness.
HOURLY FORECAST TEMPERATURES WERE TRENDING SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN OBSERVED TEMPERATURES, HOWEVER WITH THE HELP OF SUNSHINE LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON TEMPS SHOULD CATCH UP AND REACH THE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S.
256 PM CST WED MAR 2 2016 A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WAS SITUATED ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY AT 20Z WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES CONTINUING ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION WERE ONLY RANGING FROM THE LOWER 40S ACROSS SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE TO THE MID TO UPPER 40S ACROSS NORTHERN ALABAMA. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES WILL SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE MISSOURI VALLEY REGION BY 12Z THURSDAY.
1132 AM CST WED MAR 2 2016 FOR 18Z TAFS /ISSUED 1026 AM CST WED MAR 2 2016/ HIGH PRESSURE HAS SETTLED INTO WESTERN TN AND NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI THIS MORNING. AS TEMPERATURES DROPPED INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S AROUND DAYBREAK. EXPECT HIGHS IN THESE AREAS TO REACH THE LOWER TO MID 40S. DESPITE ABUNDANT CLOUDS MOVE INTO NW AL AFTER 3 PM AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN OKLAHOMA/TEXAS.
400 PM EST WED MAR 2 2016 HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA WILL MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT AND ALLOW LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE EAST THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.
MODELS CONVERGING ON SOLN WITH LOW PRESSURE TRACKING THROUGH IOWA FROM NW TO SE. UPPER RIDGING TO BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL US.
EASTERN UPPER TROF CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY WITH NORTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW OVERHEAD.
344 PM CST WED MAR 2 2016 TEMPERATURES HAVE ONCE AGAIN RISEN TO THE HIGH-SIDE OF GUIDANCE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE WESTERLY DOWNSLOPING WINDS HAVE BEEN SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN PREVIOUSLY INDICATED. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA AND WE SHOULD SEE A PERIOD OF BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH DURING THE AFTERNOON AS A HIGH PRESSURE CENTER TRANSITS THE REGION.
AND WILL BE WINDY OVER SOME OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS THRU THE NIGHT. ON THURSDAY AN UPR RIDGE WL BE MOVING OVR THE GREAT BASIN AND THE GRADIENT OVER THE FORECAST AREA WL RELAX. DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH GENERALLY COOLER TEMPS. EVEN THOUGH THE TEMPS WL BE COOLER.
A FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DROP SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE PLAINS AND WILL PASS BY JUST TO OUR SOUTH LATE THURSDAY/EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE TURNING NORTHEAST AND PULLING AWAY. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE LOW LEVELS WILL BE WARM ENOUGH FOR MOSTLY RAIN. ALTHOUGH MORE SNOW IS EXPECTED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS LOOK POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. EXACT SNOW LEVELS STILL DIFFICULT AS MODELS DISAGREE ON HOW MUCH COOLING OCCURS AS PRECIP STARTS FALLING INTO THE LOWER LEVELS. NO WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AT THIS TIME.
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BE MOVING INTO THE REGION TODAY. THE SYSTEM SEEMED TO BE LARGELY FED BY WARM SOUTHERLY WINDS AND SUPPORTED BY THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST AND OUT OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND A RIDGE MOVES IN IN ITS PLACE. RIDGE AXIS EXPECTED TO CROSS OVER THE REGION IN THE LATE EVENING. NEXT COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY.
An approaching cold front will create gusty winds from the south to southwest today, especially during the afternoon hours.
/ISSUED 439 AM CST WED MAR 2 2016/ A COLD FRONT HAD PUSHED OFFSHORE THIS MORNING WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS AND A LITTLE BIT HIGHER ALONG THE COAST AND EVEN MORE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA TODAY. TROUGHING WILL DEEPEN OVER TIME ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES TODAY AND THURSDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. RAPID DRYING IS EXPECTED AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE AND THEREFORE EXPECT HIGH PRESSURE TO REBUILD BACK INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THE RESULT OF ALL OF THIS WILL BE A SLOWER ONSET OF PRECIP THIS EVENING BUT IT SHOULD BE MORE OF A RAIN/SNOW EVENT AND LESS FREEZING PRECIP GIVEN THE COLDER SOUNDINGS AND THE OBVIOUS COLDER TEMPS AT 21Z. TOPPING THE RIDGE INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY. THE START OF THE WEEKEND LOOKS DRY AS A SHORT WAVE RIDGE CROSSES THE PLAINS. THE ECMWF SUGGESTS SOME LOW END POPS STARTING SUN DUE TO LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN IN THE LOWEST 3KM.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. TOOK A CLOSE LOOK AT WET BULB FREEZING LEVELS SO AS TO GAUGE WHETHER OR NOT THERE COULD BE A RAIN AND SNOW MIX AT THE ONSET. THE FREEZING LEVELS WILL BARELY BE LOW ENOUGH ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS FOR PERHAPS JUST A FEW HOURS INITIALLY.
HOURLY FORECAST TEMPERATURES WERE TRENDING SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN OBSERVED TEMPERATURES, HOWEVER WITH THE HELP OF SUNSHINE LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON TEMPS SHOULD CATCH UP AND REACH THE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S. UPPER TROUGH BEGINNING TO PULL AWAY WITH BACKSIDE OF STRATOCU DECK JUST ABOUT ON CLARKSVILLE.
Low pressure associated with this system will move into northern MO by daybreak Thursday. especially as the better lift comes ahead of trough swinging through by late afternoon. After tonight's lows around freezing, temperatures during the day should mostly stay in the 40s, though a few 50s are possible across south central KY. Will keep in some light precip on the back side of the system Thursday night and associated cloud cover will keep temperatures in the low to mid 30s.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS SHOWING THE NEXT TROUGH THAT WILL AFFECT THE REGION TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES ALOFT APPEAR COOLER FOR TONIGHT THAT WE WERE LOOKING AT YESTERDAY. SEE A VERY MINIMAL FREEZING RAIN CHANCE WHERE COOLING IS FAST ENOUGH OVER THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA EARLY THIS EVENING.
1143 AM CST WED MAR 2 2016 SURFACE ANALYSIS AND VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW COLD FRONT STALLING IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST WILL ALLOW FOR ENOUGH OF A PRESSURE GRADIENT TO KEEP WINDS AROUND 10-15KTS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. LOOK FOR MVFR CIGS TO SLOWLY ERODE IN THE LATE MORNING AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES.
323 PM CST WED MAR 2 2016 18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING SOUTH ON THE HIGH PLAINS FROM EASTERN MONTANA SOUTHEAST INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA. WARM FRONT LIFTED NORTHEAST WHERE COOLER TEMPERATURE READINGS NORTH OF A LINE FROM VALENTINE TO BROKEN BOW. A RIDGE WILL BE BUILDING ACROSS THE ROCKIES.
SOME OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. 30S FOR THE LOWER ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY. AS THE PACIFIC JET PUSHES ONTO THE WEST COAST AND BRINGS TROFFING ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES. WITH COOLER POST FRONTAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS.
101 PM EST WED MAR 2 2016 SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY THIS AFTERNOON AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. 925MB THERMAL TROF RELEGATED TO FAR NERN UPR GREAT LAKES INTO LOWER GREAT LAKES. MODEST AMOUNTS OF INSOLATION TO HELP TEMPS TO RECOVER SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN PRIOR WITH SLIGHT UPWARD NUDGE. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROF WILL RACE SOUTHEAST TODAY AND MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
Low level ridging will continue to slide eastward across the area today and tonight in the wake of this morning's cold front passage.
1232 PM EST WED MAR 2 2016 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS MORNING THEN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THROUGH THURSDAY.
A COUPLE SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WILL AFFECT THE REGION THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO A FEW MORE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGES OCCURRING TONIGHT.
THEN BROAD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION UNDER RIDGING PATTERN ALOFT.
BASED ON SW-NW ORIENTED BAROCLINIC ZONE AND CLOUD TRENDS THE NE WILL AGAIN BE THE COLDEST AREA UNDER LESS CLOUDS AND WARMER TO THE SW. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THURSDAY.
850MB RIDGE WAS NOTED FROM SASK THROUGH MT/IA/MO. A WARM FRONT AT 20Z EXTENDED FROM AROUND KORD THROUGH AROUND KOLU TO KOMA TO KRDK. WITH TEMPERATURES JUST A TOUCH COOLER AND WITH LESS NORTHEAST-TO-SOUTHWEST GRADIENT AND WITH LINGERING CLOUDS.
A COLD FRONT OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHWARD THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA THIS EVENING AND INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS LATE TONIGHT.
AND A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH OVERNIGHT BRINGING A NORTHERLY WIND SHIFT. THE END RESULT WILL BE ENHANCED DOWNSLOPE WESTERLY WINDS ON THE HIGH-END OF THE BREEZY OR LOW-END OF THE WINDY SPECTRUM AS WELL AS PUSHING TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER 80S WHICH WILL BE 15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMALS FOR EARLY MARCH. BY TONIGHT ANOTHER PACIFIC- TYPE COLD FRONT WILL DROP QUICKLY SOUTHWARD WITH A WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE RIDGE SETTLING IN BEHIND. A COOLER MORNING CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TRENDS WILL GET THURSDAY GOING. EVEN THOUGH THEY WILL BE COOLER TEMPS WILL STILL BE CLOSE TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.
THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING ANOTHER COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION TONIGHT BUT IT WILL BE WEAK AND FALLING APART SO PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT.
WEAK FRONTAL TROUGH CROSSING CENTRAL FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON (CANNOT REALLY CALL THIS A COLD FRONT) WILL STALL OVER SOUTH FL TONIGHT AND RETURN NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT THU. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE AT OR ABOVE NORMAL WITH LOWER 50S ACROSS NORTH LAKE/VOLUSIA COUNTIES TO THE LOWER 60S ALONG THE TREASURE COAST AND MARTIN COUNTY. FLOW RAPIDLY VEERS OUT OF THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST AS FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE DEEP SOUTH. A SCATTERED CU FIELD WITH SOME CIRRUS WILL PRODUCE PARTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 80S WITH LITTLE CHANCE FOR RAIN. SHORT WAVE TROUGH FOLLOWED BY ZONAL FLOW THIS WEEKEND.
1241 PM EST WED MAR 2 2016 STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY THURSDAY BEFORE THE DRIER AIR AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION.
102 PM EST WED MAR 2 2016 POLAR HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
RIDGING THEN BUILDS IN BUT AS HAS BEEN THE CASE LATELY.
Therefore highs reflect warmer GFS MOS values with a fairly tight gradient from east to west.
The lower and middle levels of the atmosphere will be on the dry side especially across the western portions of the forecast area. A decent temperature gradient will again setup across the area on Thursday as highs range from around 50 degrees across central Missouri to the lower 60s across extreme southeastern Kansas. Lows Thursday night will drop into the lower 30s across much of the area.
THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA THAT MOVED E ACROSS KS YESTERDAY IS CROSSING IA & MO EARLY THIS MORNING AS A WEAK SFC TROF DEVELOPS OVER ERN CO. BE SURE TO CHECK THE "FIRE WEATHER" SECTION FOR DETAILS! TODAY: AN UPPER-DECK TROF THAT HAS BEEN SITUATED OVER MT & WY DURING THE NIGHT IS STILL EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AS IT SPRINTS SE TOWARD THE WRN PARTS OF THE DAKOTS & NEBRASKA. THIS WILL FORCE THE SFC TROF E TOWARD CENTRAL KS. WITH THE SFC TROF CONTINUING TO MOVE E TOWARD AN INCREASINGLY MOIST LOWER-DECK AIRMASS SITUATED FROM NE & ERN KS ACROSS MO. APPROACHING THE LOWER MS VALLEY THU AFTERNOON. THIS WEEKEND: WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVING E ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS INSURES A QUIET SAT FOR THE NEIGHBORHOOD BUT WITH YET ANOTHER & STRONGER SFC TROF MOVING SLOWLY E TOWARD.
WITH MOISTURE INCREASING THIS EVENING INTO THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS THE WARMER SECTOR. DEW POINT TEMPERATURES WILL COME UP TO THE LOWER 60S LATE TONIGHT WITH PATCHY TO AREAS OF PATCHY FOG ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS COUNTIES AND AREAS TO THE EAST OF INTERSTATE 35. THE PACIFIC COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO COME ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PART OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS BETWEEN 5 AND 6 AM CST THURSDAY AND EXITING THE AREA AROUND NOON THURSDAY. OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL COOL TO THE LOWER 40S ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY TO THE LOWER 50S ACROSS MOST AREAS.
1111 AM CST WED MAR 2 2016 Winds will increase out of the south today as high pressure slides to our east. Highs should therefore make the lower 60s. In contrast, areas of the eastern Ozarks should see highs in the lower 50s due to more in the way of cloud cover and weaker warm air advection. A cold front associated with that short wave trough will then move southeast through the area Thursday morning.
09Z H5 ANALYSIS DEPICTS A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION SOUTHWARD ALONG THE APPALACHIANS TO CENTRAL ALABAMA WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS TO THE WEST. AT THE SFC A 1024 HPA HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS LOCATED OVER NORTHERN MISSOURI WITH LOCAL MIDSOUTH TEMPS IN THE 30S AND WINDS ARE LIGHT OUT OF THE NORTH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY EXTEND INTO THE REGION TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S AREA WIDE UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AS THE AFOREMENTIONED MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD 1120 AM CST WED MAR 2 2016 AT H5 RIDGE OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL CONUS WITH FAIRLY STRONG WAVE MOVING ACROSS MONTANA AS SEEN IN WV. TROUGH FROM THE SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE SOUTHEAST CONUS.
1136 AM EST WED MAR 2 2016 A CROSSING UPPER TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN COLD TEMPERATURES AND SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TODAY. MORE WIDESPREAD SNOW IS EXPECTED WITH LATE THURSDAY LOW PRESSURE. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES SHOULD CONTINUE THRU MID AFTN WITH NW FLOW AND A WEAK UPR TROF.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING N/S THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGION. VIS SATELLITE SHOWING SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS MAINLY NORTHEAST OF I-94 WHERE THERE WAS A WEAK TROUGH AND 700-500MB FRONTOGENESIS PER THE RAP. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WAS SHOWING TWO FAIRLY VIGOROUS MID- LEVEL TROUGHS ROTATING EASTWARD OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT FOR A BRIEF QUIET PERIOD.
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 47 34 49 38 / 10 10 80 60 KKNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 43 30 47 35 / 10 10 80 70 OAK RIDGE, TN 43 30 47 36 / 10 10 80 70 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 39 27 47 34 / 10 10 70 80.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. WARMER IN THE CSRA. CAN'T RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS IN NORTHWEST FLOW AROUND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAINLY PEE DEE EARLY. RIDGE BUILDING EAST FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH THE DAY.
THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT NORTHWEST FLOW SITS ACROSS THE CNTRL CONUS AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE NRN TO CNTRL ROCKIES. SNOW IS FALLING ACROSS THE HIGHEST TERRAIN OF THE BLKHLS.
BEFORE THE TROUGH AXIS EXITS EAST AND THE MOISTURE BECOMES TOO SHALLOW. WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A TROUGH AXIS IS MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS. WITH ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH SPIRALING ITS WAY ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. AS THE HIGH CENTER QUICKLY BECOMES DISPLACED TO THE EAST WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING IN OUT OF THE PLAINS. WITH A STOUT RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS.
WARM FRONT EXTENDED TO NEAR KANSAS CITY. LOW LEVEL JET INTENSIFYING OVER THIS GRADIENT AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ARRIVING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL LEAD TO MODERATE TO STRONG FORCING. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 20S ALONG HIGHWAY 20 TO THE LOWER 30S FAR SOUTH. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S TO LOWER 40S.
300 PM EST WED MAR 2 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING BUT THEN QUICKLY SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF A CLIPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT IS PROGGED TO PASS THROUGH THE VICINITY OR JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA TOMORROW MORNING AND AFTERNOON. ALSO DO NOT EXPECT ANY TRAVEL IMPACTS BECAUSE THE ROAD TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA ARE CURRENTLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S AND ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DROP TO THE FREEZING MARK.
315 PM EST WED MAR 2 2016 POLAR HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
342 PM EST WED MAR 2 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THROUGH THURSDAY.
FAIRLY GOOD SATURATION AND FRONTOGENESIS ACROSS THE EAST AND COULD BE LOOKING AT A BAND OF AN INCH OR TWO AT LEAST IN THE HIGHER COTEAU REGION OF NORTHEAST SD. WILL STILL BE DEALING WITH MIXED PRECIP IT APPEARS AS SFC TEMPS RISE ABOVE FREEZING LATER TODAY.
A RIDGE BUILDS IN DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY. SO THE AREA WILL BE DRY AND WARMER.
345 PM CST WED MAR 2 2016 FOR THE SHORT TERM, NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING IN A COUPLE OF WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGHS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, ALONG WITH WEAK COLD FRONT BOUNDARIES.
GIVEN THE SHALLOW LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE/ABUN- DANT DRY AIR ALOFT NOT EXPECTING TOO MUCH BY WAY OF PCPN WITH THE REINFORCING COLD FRONT TOMORROW AFTN. THIS DRY/MILD WX WILL CARRY ON THRU TO THE WEEKEND EVEN AS THE UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND ON- SHORE WINDS RETURN TO THE AREA. AS A STRONG UPPER TROF APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. MODELS ARE THEN DEEP- ENING THE TROF INTO A CLOSED LOW AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE STATE. 41 WINDS HAVE TURNED TO THE SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST TONIGHT AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE PLAINS TOMORROW. ANOTHER COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH OFF THE COAST THURSDAY EVENING SHIFTING WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST.
WILL BE TRENDING TOWARD THE COOLER GUIDANCE. RIDGE BUILDS IN TOMORROW AND EXPECT SUNNY AND CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. WILL TEND TO GO TOWARD THE WARMER GUIDANCE.
320 PM EST WED MAR 2 2016 A LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE ACROSS MAINE THIS AFTERNOON. BEHIND THIS LOW. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA TONIGHT AND REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE MOVING RAPIDLY AWAY FROM NORTH COUNTRY AT THIS TIME AS IT MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS MAINE. THE WEEKEND SHOULD BE FAIRLY BENIGN AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE FORECAST FOR THE REST WEEK HEADED INTO THE WEEKEND.
/61/ A FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE TROF WILL PASS TO THE NORTH OF ALABAMA ON THURSDAY. THE AIR MASS WILL BE VERY STABLE AT THE LOW LEVELS DUE TO SURFACE DEW POINT TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S.
/ISSUED 1044 AM EST WED MAR 2 2016/ COLD FRONT CONTINUES ITS PROGRESS THROUGH NORTH FLORIDA THIS MORNING WITH LITTLE CONVECTION ON THE RADAR. SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE WITH TEMPERATURES PUSHING INTO THE LOWER 80S THIS AFTERNOON.
Light snow can be expected over the higher mountain passes and terrain with valleys seeing intermittent light rain.
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXITING OUR EAST WITH RETURN FLOW FROM THE SE ALREADY ON THE SFC. NW WINDS WILL FILTER IN CLEARING SKIES BEHIND A COLD FRONT FROM W TO E 03/15Z-21Z. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD DIMINISH FOR A FEW HOURS THIS EVENING BUT WILL INCREASE AGAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT AND AGAIN BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD WITH MOST MOUNTAIN AREAS BELOW 11000 FEET RISING ABOVE FREEZING THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE LOWER ELEVATIONS EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WILL SEE CLEARING THROUGH THURSDAY. THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MOISTURE RIDING ALONG THE RIDGE WILL KEEP SOME LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN WYOMING THURSDAY NIGHT.
WINDS BECOME VARIABLE TO CALM TONIGHT UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH RIDGING OVER LAKE MICHIGAN. THIS HIGH WILL HOLD THROUGH THE DAY BRINGING MUCH QUIETER CONDITIONS AS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. TONIGHT THE THUMB AREA MAY SEE SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS AS MODELS ARE INDICATING A WEAK RESPONSE IN THE FLOW COUPLED WITH NORTHERLY FLOW FROM THE HIGH JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATING A PRETTY STABLE LAYER WITH THE DGZ LAYER SLIGHTLY HIGHER AND IN TURN ONLY EXPECTING LIGHT SNOWFALL AS THE INVERTED TROUGH SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA.
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVING OVERHEAD TONIGHT WILL PROVIDE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. MORNING LOWS ALONG THE FOOTHILLS OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL HIGHLANDS NOT EXPECTED TO SHOW MUCH COOLING WITH SOUTH WINDS OVER THE HIGHER GROUND TOWARDS MORNING.
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA 1048 AM CST WED MAR 2 2016 LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWING AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO LEE SIDE CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS NE CO AND A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE OHIO/TENN/LOWER MISS VALLEYS. SSE WINDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING AS A RESULT WHICH WILL KEEP THE HIGH FIRE DANGER IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF FOR THIS AFTERNOON. A CHECK OF 15-16Z OBSERVATIONS SHOWING THAT DEWPOINTS ARE MIXING DOWN BELOW FCST VALUES DESPITE SOUTHEAST SURFACE FLOW AND HOURLY TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING SOME 1-3 DEGREES WARMER THAN FCST. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD OUT OF OKLAHOMA.
314 PM EST WED MAR 2 2016 COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
AT THE SURFACE AND IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE LEVELS. AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT SNAKES SOUTHWESTWARD TO CENTRAL FLORIDA FROM 992 MB LOW PRESSURE OVER NEW BRUNSWICK. AND SURFACE COLD FRONTS WILL WITHER AS THEY REACH THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES THURSDAY NIGHT.