Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
/issued 321 AM EST Sat Jan 2 2021/ Southerly boundary layer flow over the eastern Gulf of Mexico is creating favorable conditions for sea fog to form over the coastal waters today and tonight as warm moist air is advected over the relatively cooler shelf waters. but again the confidence of this part of the forecast is on the low side. A strong U/L disturbance is located over the southern plains with a subtropical ridge centered over the Bahamas and Florida peninsula. The U/L low and associated S/W trough will rotate across the Lower Mississippi Valley today and will lift toward the Ohio River Valley tonight.
Mid level clouds will move overhead as a mid to upper level trough moves across Texas this morning. Along the surface, high pressure will continue to build across SE Texas today and move east tonight. High temperatures today will stay in the 50s areawide with lows overnight ranging between the mid and upper 30s (mid 40s in the coastal locations), but the introduction of south to southwesterly winds and sunny skies will bounce the highs into the low to mid 60s on Sunday.
Other than the patchy dense freezing fog this morning and tomorrow morning, the weather remains generally quiet over the next few days. Weak ridge of high pressure across the region this morning with temperatures in the single digits and teens.
An upper level trof is currently moving across the Central/Southern Plains. Light southerly winds will eventually develop later today as weak lee troughing resumes. Will have to watch out for the potential of some patchy freezing fog Sunday morning along the Highway 281 corridor.
Areas of drizzle and patchy fog associated with a weak trough feature continue to persist across western Kentucky early this morning. The drizzle should diminish around sunrise as the trough slides southeast of the CWA. Temperatures remain in the middle to upper 30s, so freezing drizzle will not be a concern. This raises the issue of losing cloud ice nucleation, with freezing drizzle becoming possibility in addition to light snow. Currently, our greatest concern for freezing drizzle/snow leading to some travel impacts is across southern IL north of Route 13 and adjacent parts of southwest IN north of I-64. 10" or less) here, and road temperatures look to be at least a few degrees above freezing. However, given the potential for at least isolated slick spots to develop on bridges/elevated surfaces, have opted to issue an SPS for these locations.
654 AM EST Sat Jan 2 2021 Weak high pressure builds in with dry weather for this afternoon and tonight. Next southern stream upper low lifts into the eastern Great Lakes Sunday. The higher moisture with this system will be directed to the east coast, however there will still be some upper level ascent tied to the mid level circulation that will affect much of western New York. Snow accumulations of 1 to 3 inches are expected, mainly over the higher terrain with any ice accumulation only of a few hundredths. Lingering snow showers will be possible Sunday night as the area of low pressure and trough continue to slowly track east, but dry slotting should decrease shower coverage through the night.
Morning temps were pretty much seasonable for this time of the year, with mainly 20s over the plains and single digits, and 10s over the high country. Some Banana Belt areas were living up to their namesake (Canon City area), as temps were warmest in this region with readings in the higher 20s with light but steady west winds. Except for a low chance of a few light snow showers over the higher elevations of Lake County late this afternoon and evening, It will be dry over the forecast area. Overall mostly clear skies are anticipated today, with generally light westerly wind flow over the lower elevations.
and Sunday A weak ridge of high pressure will reside over the region through Sunday, with no precipitation expected. High temperatures should be a little warmer, in the upper 20s to middle 30s.
Gusts will be between 19kt and 26kt with the higher gusts at KLVS and KTCC.
703 AM EST Sat Jan 2 2021 Weak high pressure builds in with dry weather for this afternoon and tonight. Next southern stream upper low lifts into the eastern Great Lakes Sunday. The higher moisture with this system will be directed to the east coast, however there will still be some upper level ascent tied to the mid level circulation that will affect much of western New York. Snow accumulations of 1 to 3 inches are expected, mainly over the higher terrain with any ice accumulation only of a few hundredths. Lingering snow showers will be possible Sunday night as the area of low pressure and trough continue to slowly track east, but dry slotting should decrease shower coverage through the night.
314 AM CST Sat Jan 2 2021 Other than the patchy dense freezing fog this morning and tomorrow morning, the weather remains generally quiet over the next few days. Weak ridge of high pressure across the region this morning with temperatures in the single digits and teens.
Due to clouds prevailing today, high temperatures will be on the cooler side meaning mid to upper 40s in the west and low to upper 50s for central and the east. /JNE/ The deep upper low over the Southern Plains this morning will be kicked out by another pulse of energy dropping into the h5 pattern over the country.
641 AM EST Sat Jan 2 2021 High pressure will pass across the lower Great Lakes today.
848 AM CST Sat Jan 2 2021 Early morning observations show dewpoints ranging from the lower single digits across the western South Plains to negative single digits over much of southeast New Mexico. /issued 226 AM CST Sat Jan 2 2021/ The axis of the upper low is currently over the West Texas region and will push east of the region by sunrise. The sunny skies and westerly winds will warm highs into the low/upper 50s with lows dipping into the low/upper 20s.
Combination of gusty 20 ft winds out of the WSW at 20-25 MPH with higher gusts at times, along with 80th percentile ERC values, in particular for very dry Deaf Smith County is where elevated fire weather conditions have the highest chance of forming.
Flattening ridge has brought increased westerly flow aloft overnight, reducing low clouds and fog, and providing for abundant mid to high level clouds. The last hold out for fog this morning was in La Moure and Dickey counties, which current satellite trends are showing a dissipation of the low stratus deck. These western areas could see brief sleet and freezing rain before a transition to all rain and perhaps brief snow.
- Possible slick travel later tonight into Sun AM The next wave of low pressure tracks up into the OH Valley later tonight into Sunday morning.
A second weak low, is positioned in eastern TN and is associated with a cold front that stretches south through Central Alabama.
Mid level clouds over the Victoria Crossroads are associated with lift ahead of the upper trough and will be out of the area shortly after sunrise. Clouds associated with isentropic upglide over the coastal waters will decrease through the morning hours as isentropic downglide moves in from the west as the upper trough moves east. A weak short wave trough will move east across the region on Sunday but moisture will be negligible.
Otherwise, the forecast remains dry with above average highs today ranging from the low 30s east to around 40 degrees west. Highs Sunday will be a bit warmer ranging from the low 30s east to the mid 40s along and west of the Missouri River. Average highs for this time of year are normally in the low 20s for areas in the James River Valley and east, while the average high for areas along the Missouri River Valley and west are in the mid to upper 20s.
351 AM MST Sat Jan 2 2021 09z surface analysis had low over central AB with trough into eastern WY. 2-3mb/3hr pressure falls along trough supporting increasing southwest winds over part of northeast WY. Today/tonight, upper trough zips across the northern Rockies into the northern Plains. Temperatures will be similar to yesterday, but perhaps a bit warmer over areas that lose their snowcover.
Fairly tranquil conditions are expected through the weekend as a low amplitude ridge remains situated over the Southwest region.
Winds will become calm overnight while high pressure moves across the area. /issued 219 AM CST Sat Jan 2 2021/ SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday): Light to moderate northwesterly flow and clearing skies will continue this morning as high pressure continues to build across Deep South Texas. Winds will become calm later this evening as high pressure slides eastward into the Gulf. Sunday will see return flow set back in, allowing for temperatures to reach seasonal normal levels with highs in the lower to middle 70s under partly to mostly sunny skies.
335 AM CST Sat Jan 2 2021 H5 analysis tonight had high pressure anchored over the western Caribbean. Ridging extended northeast of the high into Bermuda. West of the high, a trough of low pressure extended from the western Great Lakes, southwest into northern portions of Mexico. Within this trough, a tandem of closed lows were present. West of the trough, a ridge extended from central California, northeast into Montana and western North Dakota. At the surface tonight, high pressure was the dominant weather feature across the central Rockies and high plains. H85 temps along and east of the trough are running 1-1. 5 degrees C warmer than yesterday's temps. This yielded highs generally in the lower 40s.
Highs are expected to reach the low to mid 40s across the plains, with 20s to 30s in the Foothills and 10s/20s for the mountains and high valleys. Forecast lows for Saturday night are a few degrees warmer than this morning's lows as a result of the increased cloud cover and winds. On Sunday, weak ridging aloft will be replaced by increasing moisture riding along an approaching 100kt jet streak which will nose into Northern Colorado late Sunday night. Overall it will be windy but feel high wind threat on the lower side and hard to obtain the 75 mph needed.
The cloud cover is forecast to gradually lift out to the E/NE today with drier air pushing in from the west as an upper trof pivots through this afternoon and subsequently lifts out to the NE this evening. High pressure is the dominating weather feature through the weekend - so no rain is expected. By Sunday winds will shift to the south as high pressure drifts to our east.
An upper trof over the southern and central Plains takes on a negative tilt today while advancing eastward, then weakens and ejects off into the northeast states on Sunday. In response to the upper trof, a surface wave on the front progresses from the northeast Gulf into Georgia and will bring mainly slight chance to chance pops generally east of I-65 today. Highs today range from around 60 to the mid/upper 60s, with the warmer temperatures located east of I-65. Lows tonight mainly range from the lower to mid 30s west of I-65 and in the upper 30s to lower 40s east of I-65.
This cloudy pattern is driven by SW flow aloft and a developing trough over east Texas. Later today, a low pressure center is expected to take shape in response to PVA around the eastern side of the trough. Highs on Sunday will be several degrees cooler, albeit closer to daily averages.
/Today through Sunday/ A rather uneventful forecast is in store for the Four-States region for the weekend, which is surprising given the deep low pressure that is currently digging through the area. Thick cloud cover remains situated across the area due to shallow moisture closer to the surface, but these cloud should begin to clear out into the afternoon hours, as the low continues moving northeast. While most of this precipitation may be light showers, given the cooler airmass, a few snowflakes may mix in. Sunday looks to be on the complete opposite end of the spectrum, as winds kick back south, and warmer air from the Gulf starts working back north. Again, aided by limited cloud cover and a dry airmass overhead, afternoon highs on Sunday should push back into the low 60s south, and mid 50s north.
High pressure is the dominating weather feature through the weekend - so no rain is expected. By Sunday winds will shift to the south as high pressure drifts to our east.
738 AM EST Sat Jan 2 2021 Weak high pressure builds in with dry weather for this afternoon and tonight. Next southern stream upper low lifts into the eastern Great Lakes Sunday. The higher moisture with this system will be directed to the east coast, however there will still be some upper level ascent tied to the mid level circulation that will affect much of western New York. Snow accumulations of 1 to 3 inches are expected, mainly over the higher terrain with any ice accumulation only of a few hundredths. Lingering snow showers will be possible Sunday night as the area of low pressure and trough continue to slowly track east, but dry slotting should decrease shower coverage through the night.
930 AM EST Sat Jan 2 2021 High pressure will pass across the lower Great Lakes today.
356 AM CST Sat Jan 2 2021 Flattening ridge has brought increased westerly flow aloft overnight, reducing low clouds and fog, and providing for abundant mid to high level clouds. The last hold out for fog this morning was in La Moure and Dickey counties, which current satellite trends are showing a dissipation of the low stratus deck. These western areas could see brief sleet and freezing rain before a transition to all rain and perhaps brief snow.
This fog has developed along the highway 40 corridor so decided to expand the Dense Fog Advisory through most of the morning. A midlevel ridge will build over the region ahead of the next system making landfall in the Pacific Northwest.
425 AM EST Sat Jan 2 2021 High pressure will pass across the lower Great Lakes today.
Weak surface ridging will quickly traverse across the area today providing a brief period of dry/quiet weather. Approach of closed upper low will bring good mid-level lapse rates aided by -25C 500mb cold pool along with 150m height falls and favorable deformation zone initially ahead of 700mb low. However, low level and near surface thermal profiles bring ptype into question with shallow (1Kft) above freezing surface layer and snow ratios less than 10:1 suggests possible snow/rain mix at times. This lends support to ride current forecast of 1-3 inches while acknowledging higher amounts could be realized in any mesobanding and/or if near surface temps run a little cooler and will truncate snow accums in far SE CWA where best chance resides for warmer surface temps and more of a snow/rain mix for precip.
In addition, higher terrain across our area and the valleys of northwest/southwest Montana and the Camas Prairie of Idaho can expect gusty winds with the passage of a cold front Sunday morning. Widespread precipitation will impact the region early this morning along a weak cold front. The higher terrain will continue to see showers and obscurations throughout the day. A brief period of strong winds are possible at terminal sites on Sunday morning accompanying another cold frontal passage.
A cold front will make its way across the area through the night. Meanwhile, a closed low will be approaching from the west, making its way across the Ozarks through the day and up the OH Valley region tonight. Some scattered to isolated showers may linger in NE sections Sunday morning until the mid/upper level low pulls farther NE into OH/PA in the afternoon.
354 AM CST Sat Jan 2 2021 Widespread, dense freezing fog developed over a large chunk of central and southern Minnesota yesterday evening. The southwestern flank of the fog bank is eroding along the MN River, but this is likely due to downslope from the Buffalo Ridge and is probably not going to clear much beyond the river until later this morning. Kept some patchy/areas of freezing fog in the grids through Sunday morning in these areas, but for now will let the Dense Fog Advisory go until 10 AM due to low confidence the fog will be dense beyond that.
A slowly approaching cold front will get pushed over north FL by around sunset, then continue to make gradual progress toward/near Lake/Volusia counties by sunrise Sun morning. After midnight, a weakening cold front ventures closer to I-4 and there may be an isolated shower along/out ahead of it and toward sunrise Sun morning. By daybreak Sun morning the cold front should lie just north of our northern waters.
215 AM MST Sat Jan 2 2021 Slightly warmer temperatures are expected through the period as some weak/broad upper ridging moves our way from the west.
Lingering flurries or light rain showers over portions of Central and Southwest Montana are ending as an upper level trough axis moves away to the east. Satellite imagery shows clearing in the higher clouds to the west of line from near Shelby to Ennis associated with subsidence behind the passing wave. Winds may decrease slightly through mid-day with some weak post-wave pressure rises, but then increase again this evening as mid-level winds strengthen and the lee side trough redevelops. There is a very low potential for a rain/freezing rain/snow shower in the Turner area this morning. Confidence seems low at this time for any freezing rain as warmer air moves slowly into that region.
Cold front moves thru thereafter, shifting SW winds to W during the morning Sunday.
159 PM MST Sat Jan 2 2021 The short term period remains dry with slightly warmer than average temperatures for this time of year as high temperatures remain in the middle 40s to lower 50s and lows stay mainly in the 20s.
1109 AM MST Sat Jan 2 2021 09z surface analysis had low over central AB with trough into eastern WY. 2-3mb/3hr pressure falls along trough supporting increasing southwest winds over part of northeast WY. Today/tonight, upper trough zips across the northern Rockies into the northern Plains. Temperatures will be similar to yesterday, but perhaps a bit warmer over areas that lose their snowcover.
1158 AM CST Sat Jan 2 2021 Widespread, dense freezing fog developed over a large chunk of central and southern Minnesota yesterday evening. The southwestern flank of the fog bank is eroding along the MN River, but this is likely due to downslope from the Buffalo Ridge and is probably not going to clear much beyond the river until later this morning. Kept some patchy/areas of freezing fog in the grids through Sunday morning in these areas, but for now will let the Dense Fog Advisory go until 10 AM due to low confidence the fog will be dense beyond that.
243 PM CST Sat Jan 2 2021 The upper low this afternoon continues to lift into MO, wrapping mid level clouds southward across eastern KS. Light returns have been noted on radar, however with the higher cloud bases light snow has been difficult to reach the sfc towards the I-35 corridor. Despite the snow covered ground in eastern KS, highs today managed to reach the low 30s, while north central areas are peaking in the low 40s this hour. As the upper low exits east by early evening, skies are expected to become mostly clear for the first few hours after sunset. Depending upon how long any residual fog/stratus takes to lift in the morning, temps could be a few degrees cooler across far eastern Kansas.
1142 AM MST Sat Jan 2 2021 Slightly warmer temperatures are expected through the period as some weak/broad upper ridging moves our way from the west.
1123 AM CST Sat Jan 2 2021 H5 analysis tonight had high pressure anchored over the western Caribbean. Ridging extended northeast of the high into Bermuda. West of the high, a trough of low pressure extended from the western Great Lakes, southwest into northern portions of Mexico. Within this trough, a tandem of closed lows were present. West of the trough, a ridge extended from central California, northeast into Montana and western North Dakota. At the surface tonight, high pressure was the dominant weather feature across the central Rockies and high plains. H85 temps along and east of the trough are running 1-1. 5 degrees C warmer than yesterday's temps. This yielded highs generally in the lower 40s.
/issued 848 AM CST Sat Jan 2 2021/ Early morning observations show dewpoints ranging from the lower single digits across the western South Plains to negative single digits over much of southeast New Mexico. /issued 226 AM CST Sat Jan 2 2021/ The axis of the upper low is currently over the West Texas region and will push east of the region by sunrise. The sunny skies and westerly winds will warm highs into the low/upper 50s with lows dipping into the low/upper 20s.
327 PM EST Sat Jan 2 2021 Synopsis/Discussion/Marine - Rather mundane weather expected the next 7 days - Snow for Southern Lower MI overnight into Sunday morning - Small chance of flurries/freezing drizzle Mon afternoon/night - Chance for some light snow/lake effect snow next Saturday - Rather mundane weather expected the next 7 days Overall the pattern for the next 7 days looks pretty uneventful. Not out of the realm of possibilities to see a bit of freezing drizzle later this evening as lift increases ahead the approaching upper wave. The lift will occur prior to deeper moisture and the saturation of the DGZ leading to the possibility of the freezing drizzle. The freezing drizzle will need to be monitored, but even so air temperatures will be marginal (near freezing) so it should be easily mitigated.
948 AM CST Sat Jan 2 2021 Large T/Td spreads across the northwest, so it will take some time to saturate the lower atmosphere for precipitation to reach the surface this morning. Flattening ridge has brought increased westerly flow aloft overnight, reducing low clouds and fog, and providing for abundant mid to high level clouds. The last hold out for fog this morning was in La Moure and Dickey counties, which current satellite trends are showing a dissipation of the low stratus deck. These western areas could see brief sleet and freezing rain before a transition to all rain and perhaps brief snow.
A cold front will cross the area tonight and result in some gusty southwest winds.
257 PM CST Sat Jan 2 2021 (Issued 300 PM CST Sat Jan 2 2021) Tonight through Sunday night: Deep moisture, calm winds, and sub-freezing temperatures will contribute to the potential for some dense freezing fog. The freezing nature of the fog will likely lead to some slick spots on untreated surfaces, so caution is advised with respect to travel this evening.
913 AM MST Sat Jan 2 2021 Lingering flurries or light rain showers over portions of Central and Southwest Montana are ending as an upper level trough axis moves away to the east. Satellite imagery shows clearing in the higher clouds to the west of line from near Shelby to Ennis associated with subsidence behind the passing wave. Winds may decrease slightly through mid-day with some weak post-wave pressure rises, but then increase again this evening as mid-level winds strengthen and the lee side trough redevelops. There is a very low potential for a rain/freezing rain/snow shower in the Turner area this morning. Confidence seems low at this time for any freezing rain as warmer air moves slowly into that region.
146 PM MST Sat Jan 2 2021 Short wave trough was approaching eastern WY, accompanied by a band of mid clouds and light precipitation. Otherwise, a 10-12mb surface pressure gradient between a ridge to the west and trough over the High Plains was generating strong westerly winds along and west of the Laramie Range, especially the wind-prone areas. Westerly 700-800mb flow will remain elevated, generally between 55 and 65kt across southeast WY, with 45 to 50kt into the high plains Sunday.
But then as the lee side trough ejects eastward Sunday and couples with the passing upper level trough, the wind field will expand across North-Central Montana. Winds and snowfall decrease in coverage rather quickly Sunday evening as the upper level trough moves away to the east.
Main issue for tonight is the potential for freezing fog, which may become fairly widespread especially over the existing snow pack. Current dew points in the low-mid 30s and as skies clear, strong radiational cooling will drop temps well below those values with the BL layer becoming saturated fairly quick this evening.