Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
314 PM CST SUN JAN 18 2015 A PACIFIC IN ORIGIN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AT 20Z WAS PROVIDING SUNNY SKIES AND MORE MODERATE TEMPS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS GENERALLY UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE WEEK WITH A RIDGE AMPLIFYING OVER THE WEST COAST AND A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION BY LATE MONDAY WITH A SECONDARY COLD SURGE TO FOLLOW MONDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH A BRIEF INCREASE IN MOSTLY MID LEVEL RH.
THE LOW-LEVELS DO MOISTEN LATE MONDAY NIGHT ALONG THE COASTAL PLAINS AND WE WILL ADD A MENTION OF PATCHY FOG FOR THIS AREA.
/ISSUED 954 AM EST SUN JAN 18 2015/ COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE PUSHING THROUGH THE REGION BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE DEVELOPING TRAILING COLD FRONT FROM THIS LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO SOUTH FL FROM THE NW TONIGHT-MONDAY WITH A DRY CONTINENTAL AIRMASS MOVING IN.
BROKEN MID AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUD DECK CONTINUES TO STREAM ACROSS FLORIDA IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. THE LEADING EDGE OF COOLER AND DRIER AIR IS APPROACHING LEVY COUNTY NOW AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. NONE OF THE 12Z GUIDANCE TRENDED COLDER SO DO NOT EXPECT TO SEE ANY AREAS DROP TO FREEZING. WE WILL END UP NO THE COOLER SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S NORTH TO THE LOWER 70S SOUTH.
1253 PM EST SUN JAN 18 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC TODAY.
408 PM EST SUN JAN 18 2015 HIGH PRESSURE AND SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY.
THE ONLY DOWNSIDE HAS BEEN THE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH WHICH COMBINED WITH THE LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES HAS RESULTED IN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL ENTER NORTH TEXAS.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. THE LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION THAT GENERATED WEAK LIFT AND VERY LIGHT PRECIP ACROSS THE NORTH OVERNIGHT HAS EXITED THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. THEN TRACK EAST-SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES IN RESPONSE TO WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGING ALONG THE WEST COAST. WITH THE LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE PRESSES SOUTH THROUGH AND CENTRAL UTAH MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.
WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AND WITH CLOUD COVER AND WARMER AIR MOVING IN.
WEAK RIDGING PATTERN PERSISTS OVER THE REGION WITH CLOSED UPPER LOW REMAINING OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA AND DEEP TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS IS AID IN KEEPING THE TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES COOLER OVERALL ON SUNDAY.
COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA LATER TODAY. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE DOWN INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH TEMPS TONIGHT DOWN INTO THE LOW TEENS WITH SINGLE DIGITS NEAR KENTUCKY BORDER. HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 20S. DURING THE DAY SUNDAY A POTENT EMBEDDED VORT MAX RACES SOUTHEASTWARD IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND INTERACTS WITH INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING EAST FROM SOUTH TEXAS.
TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT WELL BELOW FREEZING AS THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE AREA. AREAS OF FREEZING RAIN.
HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER DUE TO CLOUDS AND RAIN.
Light showers are possible over the higher elevations, and a few locations could see some breezy afternoon winds especially near the Continental Divide).
427 AM CST SAT FEB 14 2015 A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.
WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER NORTHERN MN. UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST BY SUN MORNING. UPPER TROUGH WILL SEND COLD AIR INTO THE PLAINS TODAY. SHORT WAVE RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL MOVE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS SAT NIGHT. GOOD RIDGE BUILDING EXPECTED OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA FOR THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM.
SHORT TERM: (Through Late This Afternoon) Well advertised Arctic cold front will move across the area this morning with the wind turning to the north/northwest and increasing with gusts of 30 to 40 MPH expected.
THIS EFFECTIVELY GETS THE MID LEVEL SATURATION DISJOINTED FROM THE LOW LEVEL SATURATION TO THE WEST.
Strong potential vorticity anomaly was rotating south-southeast into the Great Lakes early this morning with associated cold front into northeast Nebraska and central portions Iowa at 08Z. Somewhat slower frontal progression should allow for slightly warmer temperatures today, particularly in the south, though still not a high confidence forecast.
BUT THERE WILL BE A GOOD WARM UP FOR TODAY WITH WESTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF ANOTHER ARCTIC COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT.
353 AM MST SAT FEB 14 2015 HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER UTAH WITH WEAK FLOW ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO THE WEST WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE DROPS SOUTH OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. A COLD FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS IS FORECAST TO BACK INTO OUR EASTERN TIER OF COUNTIES BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WITH AN EASTERLY WIND SHIFT AND COOLER AIR BEGINNING TO ADVECT INTO THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS.
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO COVER THE REGION TODAY WITH DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD INTO SOUTHERN ARIZONA LATE TODAY AND SUNDAY ASSOCIATED WITH AN INTENSIFYING BAJA CALIFORNIA LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
A RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST WILL BRING NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS IS DUE TO A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE HOVERING OVER THE WEST COAST, WHICH WILL BRING NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA DRY WEATHER, MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES, AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
MIGHT BE MORE EXTENSIVE COVERAGE THAN WHAT WE ARE CURRENTLY SEEING GIVEN THE HIGHER MOISTURE LEVELS THAT WILL BE PRESENT.
QUIETER BUT STILL COLD WEATHER WILL REMAIN THE RULE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEK AS LARGE SCALE TROUGHING WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY.
WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT CREATING THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW. WARMER AIR RETURNS TO THE REGION AND SHOULD SEE A GRADUAL RISING TREND IN TEMPERATURES FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT. CLOSER TO THE MO RIVER VALLEY TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LOW 30S.
A COLD FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST WILL PRODUCE SOME CLOUD COVER FROM SCATTERED TO BROKEN HEIGHTS AROUND 15 HND FEET. VARIABLE WINDS TO WESTERLY WINDS TODAY BECOMING SOUTHERLY PRIOR TO FRONTAL PASSAGE AND NORTHEAST TO EAST AFTER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
A STRONG UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM ONTARIO TO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO DIG SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY REGION TODAY.
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS AND SHIFTS SOUTH. WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 18-20KTS THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF NEXT COLD FRONT. EXPECT WESTERLY WINDS TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ANEAD OF NEXT STRONG COLD FRONT. AND AS WESTERLY WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF A DRY COLD FRONT.
/ISSUED 427 AM CST SAT FEB 14 2015/ A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.
AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE MS RIVER VALLEY AT THIS TIME WILL PUSH THROUGH GA TONIGHT.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND.
SINKING AIR VIA APPRECIABLE LOW LEVEL QG DIVERGENCE COUPLED WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE LOWEST LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL AID IN MIXING DOWN SOME OF THE STRONGER LOW LEVEL WINDS. WITH IMPROVEMENT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE HIGH MOVES IN. WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN TONIGHT.
254 AM PST SAT FEB 14 2015 HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD JUST OFF THE PACIFIC COAST THIS WEEKEND.
CLOUDINESS WILL INCREASE TODAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. ALL PRECIPITATION TODAY WILL FALL AS SNOW AND THE AREAS MOST LIKELY TO RECEIVE MEASURABLE SNOWFALL WILL GENERALLY BE NORTH AND EAST OF A LINE FROM CARBONDALE ILLINOIS TO HOPKINSVILLE KENTUCKY WITH SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS AND SOUTHWEST INDIANA EXPECTED TO RECEIVE THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS OF LESS THAN AN INCH.
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 53 17 29 21 / 10 10 10 40 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 49 11 26 17 / 40 10 10 40 OAK RIDGE, TN 48 13 26 16 / 40 10 10 40 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 42 11 20 12 / 70 30 10 30 NC.
AS A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK.
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MOSTLY SUNNY SKY ALONG WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WHERE A DRY BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL DROP IN AND BRING A COOLER AIRMASS.
The slight slowing of the expected cold front for Sunday should result in most of the area getting a full day of warming prior to the cold front's arrival. The exception to that might be the Rolling Plains and NE Texas Permian Basin, where the cold front could slide into the area during the early portion of the afternoon, holding high temperatures down a bit. Water vapor imagery still shows the upper level low pressure center retrograding west of Baja this morning.
516 AM CST SAT FEB 14 2015 WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. WARMER TEMPERATURES ANTICIPATED ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA TODAY XCEPT THE CNTRL AND ERN OK PNHDL AND THE NERN TX PNHDL AS THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT SHOULD MAKE IT INTO THAT PART OF OUR FCST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL OF THE TX AND OK PNHDLS ON SUNDAY. FEATURING AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG THE W COAST AND A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE U.
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS MORNING BEFORE SHIFTING MORE WESTERLY WITH STRONG GUSTS IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT. BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE MOST OF THE NIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
532 AM CST SAT FEB 14 2015 THE COLD FRONT IS LOOMING JUST TO OUR NORTH ACROSS SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST IOWA.
A PRE-FRONTAL TROF RAN FROM KMKE INTO SOUTHWEST IOWA. SUNDAY WILL START OUT WITH WIDESPREAD SUBZERO TEMPERATURES UNDER THE ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE. WITH ONLY WEAK LIFT AND DRY AIR TO OVERCOME AT THE LOW LEVELS.
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT UPPER RIDGING ACROSS THE PACIFIC COAST CONTINUES WITH NW FLOW REMAINING OVER THE REGION. THIS PROFILE SUGGESTS A MIXTURE OF FOG/FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE. AND PERHAPS SOUTHEAST TO THE PINE RIDGE AREA. FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE IS EXPECTED TO END BY MIDDAY TODAY WITH LINGERING LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
614 AM EST SAT FEB 14 2015 AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION TODAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS. AND POSSIBLY DOUBLE THAT OVER THE RIDGES AS DEVELOPING UPSLOPE INTENSIFIES THE ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL.
A COLD FRONT WAS UPSTREAM OVER CENTRAL IL AND NORTHERN IN EARLY THIS MORNING.
522 AM CST SAT FEB 14 2015 ANALYSIS OF THE 08Z MSL DATA SHOWED THE FRONTAL TROUGH ACROSS SOUTHERN IOWA. THE HIGHS IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA ARE EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES STEADY OR FALLING THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. THIS ALLOWS THE LIFT TO REACH THE LOWER PARTS OF THE DENDRITIC LAYER. THIS PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL PERSIST.
COLD ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN MANITOBA WAS PUSHING INTO NORTH DAKOTA. LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED ALONG AND EITHER SIDE OF THE WARM FRONT AS IT ADVANCES EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN THIS AFTERNOON.
BEYOND 00Z CONFIDENCE LOWERS REGARDING WIND DIRECTION DEPENDENT UPON THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. /ISSUED 516 AM CST SAT FEB 14 2015/ WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. WARMER TEMPERATURES ANTICIPATED ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA TODAY XCEPT THE CNTRL AND ERN OK PNHDL AND THE NERN TX PNHDL AS THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT SHOULD MAKE IT INTO THAT PART OF OUR FCST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL OF THE TX AND OK PNHDLS ON SUNDAY. FEATURING AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG THE W COAST AND A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE U.
915 AM EST SAT FEB 14 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE TX COAST EASES EAST TODAY. THE FREEZING AND BELOW TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTH HAVE RISEN AND THE WARNING HAS EXPIRED. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO MOVES EASTWARD AND WILL CAUSE THE WINDS TO BACK FROM THE NORTH TO THE WEST NORTHWEST AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS THROUGH SUNDAY.
928 AM PST Mon Feb 16 2015 Dry weather with above normal temperatures will continue through the week under high pressure. Highly amplified ridge along the west coast (Omega Block) will maintain the dry and mild weather pattern for Norcal for the rest of the week.
AS HIGH PRESSURE WITH ARCTIC ORIGINS SETTLES SOUTH ACROSS MID-AMERICA. AND A LONGWAVE TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. ABOUT 10-20 DEGREES COOLER THAN SEASONAL NORMALS. MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A TALL/AMPLIFIED MID-UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PACIFIC BY LATE WEEK. ALLOWING FOR A DEEPENING WESTERN CONUS LONGWAVE TROUGH.
321 PM CST MON FEB 16 2015 THE 21Z SURFACE OBS AND MESONET DATA CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT MAINLY LAUDERDALE AND COLBERT COUNTIES IN NORTHWEST ALABAMA AND OUR SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE COUNTIES WERE EXPERIENCING TEMPS AROUND 30 DEGREES TO THE LOWER 30S WITH SOME ICING CONTINUING TO BE REPORTED. PATCHY LOCATIONS ELSEWHERE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH ALABAMA WERE STILL REPORTING SOME FREEZING RAIN.
LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE FROM THE LOWER TEENS NORTH TO AROUND 20 DEGREES FAR SOUTH.
PERIOD OF LOW END MVFR/TEMPO IFR CIGS FOR S TX TERMINALS WITH PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT.
POWERFUL COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH OUR NORTHERN ROW OF COUNTIES WITH A WEAK PREFRONTAL TROUGH LOCATED APPROX 20 MILES AHEAD OF THE MAIN FRONT.
likely impacting the highway 36 corridor before sunrise, and the Topeka - Lawrence corridor around the time of the morning commute. Upper trough axis was entering the southern High Plains early this morning with upstream cloud tops cooling, but snowfall was steadily ending from north to south, along and south of Interstate 70 at 08Z as winds from 2k to 9k feet veer and increase, bringing drier air in. This veered wind will bring in moderately warmer low-level air for a noticeably warmer day in the west, though stayed closer to the cooler NAM MOS values with some cloud, lighter winds, and recent snow. Models are in good agreement with winds around 850mb veering ahead of a cold front overnight for anywhere from minor to strong frontogenesis to occur, depending on the model.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REDEVELOP FOR THE MID WEEK PERIOD. A HIGH AMPLITUDE MID LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST NORTHWARD INTO THE HIGH LATITUDES ALONG THE AK/CANADIAN BORDER THIS MORNING. AS SUCH ASIDE FROM SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ANTICIPATE SIMILAR CONDITIONS TODAY TO WHAT WAS OBSERVED WITH SUNDAYS MOISTURE-STARVED WAVE. THE MID LEVEL RIDGE ALONG THE COAST IS FORECAST TO SHIFT INLAND TUESDAY.
A MIDLVL TROF AXIS WILL FOLLOW ON THROUGH THE AREA. ANOTHER TROF AXIS ALOFT WILL APPROACH BY EARLY-TO- MID AFTN WHICH WILL AID IN REINVIGORATING CLOUD COVER ACRS THE AREA. A DEEPLY AMPLIFIED LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL BE OVERHEAD.
THE NEXT COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM NORTHWEST MINNESOTA INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE STATE TODAY WITH LITTLE MORE THAN A WIND SHIFT.
AN UPPER RIDGE AND LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
WILL THERE BE ENOUGH PRECIP CONTINUING AS THE FREEZING TEMPS MOVE S/SE. RESULTING IN LESS ACCUM WHEN TEMPS ARE AT THE CRITICAL RANGE OF BELOW FREEZING. FREEZING RAIN WILL CONTINUE FROM GLH TO GWO THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING SPREADING INTO THE GTR/JAN/HKS AREAS AFTER 00Z BEFORE ENDING AROUND 17/06Z.
1145 AM PST Mon Feb 16 2015 Dry weather with above normal temperatures will continue through the week under high pressure. Highly amplified ridge along the west coast (Omega Block) will maintain the dry and mild weather pattern for Norcal for the rest of the week.
THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER MUCH OF THE CONUS IS GRADUALLY SHIFTING EASTWARD. STRONGER BURST OF ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. COULD ALSO BE SOME ADVISORY-CRITERIA SNOWFALL NEAR THE PINE RIDGE AREA. AS THE UPPER JET SHIFTS EASTWARD OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES IN.
COLD FRONT HAS CLEARED THE CWA WITH POST FRONTAL CLOUD COVER EXPECTED TO THIN OUT LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING /EARLIER ACROSS THE WESTERN BRUSH COUNTRY/ AS DRIER AIRMASS BUILDS INTO THE REGION. DESPITE DRIER AIRMASS BUILDING INTO THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. WHEN COMBINED WITH AN APPROACHING H5 S/W TROUGH. MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EAST TUES MORNING WITH FURTHER DRYING OF THE ATMOSPHERE OCCURRING DURING THE AFTERNOON.
1145 AM CST MON FEB 16 2015 HAVE PUT FLURRIES IN FOR THE REST OF TODAY WITH WHAT ACTUALLY IS VERY FINE SNOW GRAINS FALLING OUT OF THE LOW CLOUDS. NO CHANGE TO THE LOW POPS FOR MEASURABLE IN THE FAR WEST AS WEAK UPPER SUPPORT PASSES BY BUT THAT WOULD NOT BE MUCH EITHER.
EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS HAS CONTINUED OVER THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR AS HIGHS HAVE CREPT INTO THE 20S IN MOST LOCATIONS BY MID AFTERNOON. TUESDAY WILL BE COOLER WITH MODEST NORTHWEST FLOW. REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL PLOW ACROSS IOWA ON TUESDAY NIGHT.
240 PM MST MON FEB 16 2015 STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT BACK OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL EVENTUALLY BREAK DOWN ALLOWING FOR SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES DURING THE WEEKEND. HIGH AMPLITUDE MERIDIONAL FLOW CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE ENTIRE CONUS WITH RIDGING PREVAILING ALONG THE NORTH AMERICAN WEST COAST.
A VERTICALLY STACKED TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE DAKOTAS/MN BORDER AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WILL PROGRESS SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE FA TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT. FLURRIES HAVE BEEN COMMON OVERNIGHT ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AND THAT WILL BE THE CASE GOING FORWARD TODAY. SREF AND NAMDNG5 PROBABILITIES FOR A HUNDREDTH OF AN INCH IN THREE HOURS INCREASE INTO THE LOW CHANCE RANGE TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS. IT WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER TODAY WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS.
EVAPORATIVE COOLING HAS ALLOWED TEMPS TO FALL TO OR BELOW FREEZING ACROSS MANY LOCATIONS. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE EAST. WITH FREEZING RAIN OBSERVED TO THE WEST. BEFORE SUB FREEZING TEMPS RETURN. AS THE LOW EXITS TO THE EAST.
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL BRING A FEW DEGREES OF COOLING WITH BREEZY WINDS TO NORTHERN ARIZONA TODAY AND TUESDAY. WARMER TEMPERATURES RETURN FOR AFTER TUESDAY UNDER A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE.
WILL ALSO LIKELY SEE FREEZING DRIZZLE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS IN SOME AREA UNTIL LOWER LEVELS DRY OUT FURTHER BY AFTERNOON. CURRENTLY UNCLEAR HOW QUICKLY THE LOW CIGS WILL CLEAR OUT TODAY.
920 AM MST MON FEB 16 2015 STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT BACK INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL EVENTUALLY BREAK DOWN ALLOWING FOR COOLING TEMPERATURES FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
STRONG UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION WITH FAIR WEATHER.
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BELOW FREEZING AGAIN TONIGHT WILL LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL AIR MASS ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. HIGHS ARE LIKELY TO CLIMB BACK UP INTO THE 40S(F) ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF ANOTHER SURGE OF COOLER AIR EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO AROUND 40-45F OUTSIDE THIS ACTIVITY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ZONES WITH COOLER 30S NEAR THE I70 CORRIDOR.
336 PM EST MON FEB 16 2015 AN INVERTED SURFACE TROF WILL MOVE THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT.
1223 PM CST MON FEB 16 2015 COLD FRONT NEARLY THROUGH GLS AND SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST SHOULD TAPER OFF QUICKLY. TOWARD MORNING EXPECT THAT MOST SITES WILL BE VFR WITH BKN-OVC MID LEVEL DECK 10-15KFT THAT LOWERS TO 6-8KFT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES AND LIFT INCREASES. /ISSUED 1010 AM CST MON FEB 16 2015/ COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MAKE GOOD PROGRESS THROUGH SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND IS APPROACHING THE US 59 CORRIDOR AT MID MORNING.
WITH CLEARING SKIES AND COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FORECAST TO BUILD OVER THE WEST COAST TODAY AND TONIGHT. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PACIFIC WILL PLOW THROUGH THE UPPER RIDGE AND INTO THE THE WESTERN DAKOTAS BY 84 HOURS. LOWERED TEMPS THU MORNING WITH LIGHT WINDS AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY.
112 PM EST MON FEB 16 2015 A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES WILL KEEP THE LOCAL AREA DRY TODAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE AREA LATER TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY BRINGING CHANCES FOR LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS.
The snow will come to a complete end by 5 PM across the eastern Ozarks as an upper level trough axis clears the area. This wave will also bring another cold front through the area later Tuesday night.
1211 PM EST MON FEB 16 2015 ADVANCING LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR SNOW LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. WITH NO DIGGING UPPER TROUGH. TUCKER COUNTY WV IS IN THE MOST FAVORABLE AREA FOR HEAVIER ACCUMULATIONS WITH THE HIGHEST QPF AND SNOW RATIOS PROGGED. LOW CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE RIDGING BRIEFLY BUILDS IN.
1216 PM EST MON FEB 16 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH TODAY BRINGING SNOW TO PARTS OF DIXIE AND THE OHIO VALLEY.
WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES EXTENDING SOUTH TOWARDS NORTHERN COLORADO.
HINT OF A WEAK THERMAL RIDGE AXIS TONIGHT THEN COLD ADVECTION RETURNS FOR TUESDAY. HIGH A WEAK UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL MOVE INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY TONIGHT. THE HIGHER 700 MB RH MOVES EAST WITH THE INITIAL TROUGH. THE HIGHER 925 MB RH OFF LAKE MICHIGAN BRIEFLY DRIES A LITTLE BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN FROM THE NORTH AND WEST TONIGHT.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT AS BEEN NEAR BAJA THE LAST FEW DAYS WILL GET ABSORBED AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH GETS CARVED OUT OF THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE PACIFIC RIDGE NEAR THE ROCKIES. AS THE TROUGH DEEPENS TO OUR WEST AND EVENTUALLY MOVES OVER THE PANHANDLES ON TUESDAY. WITH THE BEST POTENTIAL ACROSS THE WESTERN PANHANDLES TONIGHT AND TUESDAY BEFORE THE TROUGH SINKS FURTHER SOUTH. THE MAIN AXIS OF THE TROUGH WILL QUICKLY PUSH EAST.
TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT STRONG UPPER RIDGING CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE PACIFIC COAST WITH AN UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPING ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS STATES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW STEEP LAPSE RATES IN THE LOWER LEVELS. BUT WITH TEMPS EXPECTED TO REACH ABOVE FREEZING TODAY.
A WESTERN RIDGE AND EASTERN TROUGH PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH MIDWEEK. A DEEP CLOSED LOW WILL DIVE SOUTH TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND BRING THE BEGINNING OF ANOTHER ARCTIC BLAST LATE STARTING ON TUESDAY NIGHT. SOME LOWER RATIO SNOW IS LIKELY FALLING CLOSER TO THE VA AND TN BORDERS WHERE THE ATMOSPHERE IS WARMER. THIS LOW THE WINTER STORM CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE REGION AND IT IS LEADING TO TOTALS NEAR DOUBLE DIGITS IF NOT NEARLY A FOOT OR MORE ATTM. SHOULD ALSO EXPERIENCE AN END TO MIX WITH FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A RESPITE TO THE SNOW CHANCES AS THE LOW DEPARTS.
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BELOW FREEZING AGAIN TONIGHT WILL LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL AIR MASS ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. HIGHS ARE LIKELY TO CLIMB BACK UP INTO THE 40S(F) ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF ANOTHER SURGE OF COOLER AIR EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
Partly to mostly cloudy conditions will prevail through the evening hours before a cold front currently across Minnesota/the Dakotas approaches from the northwest overnight. Elsewhere have gone a little above guidance in the teens due to increasing clouds and a light SW flow ahead of the approaching cold front. A surface cold front will push southeastward across central Illinois through the day Tuesday causing temperatures to level off early in the day and eventually decrease in the late afternoon. Limited moisture will cause this to have little precipitation associated with it, however scattered snow flurries will be possible as the surface cold front and upper trough cross the area. Brisk northwest winds of 10-15 mph will follow the cold front causing very chilly conditions.
YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH LATER TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
DEEP LONGWAVE TROF WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES THE NEXT FEW DAYS.