Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
542 AM CDT Mon Jun 21 2021 Much cooler weather is expected across the area to start the week with high temperatures today and Tuesday in the 70s. A large upper trough stretched from central Canada into the central CONUS will continue to drive the weather over the next 12-18 hours. Surface analysis depicts a northeast to southwest oriented cold front located from approximately Danville to Litchfield as of 3 AM. The cold front will work it's way through the area this morning, bringing a period of gusty northwest winds behind it as the pressure gradient quickly tightens. Temperatures will be in the 70s today, which is about 10-15 degrees cooler than normal for late June standards.
1017 AM EDT Mon Jun 21 2021 A cold front will move across the area this afternoon.
437 AM MDT Mon Jun 21 2021 Upper ridge over the west will dominate the weather pattern for much of the week.
631 AM CDT Mon Jun 21 2021 Key Points: -High temperatures today are expected to be 10-15 degrees below normal following a strong cold front that moved through the region overnight.
An upper level low will establish itself just off the California coast tonight as an upper level ridge builds into the Central and Northern Rockies. Northwesterly flow across the West Central High Plains will weaken and slowly back to the west overnight and Tuesday as an area of high pressure at the surface crosses the Central Plains.
Current thinking despite the low CAPE environment is there will be sufficient orographic forcing to be conducive for isolated storms.
Warmer temperatures tomorrow with a westerly wind and another cumulus field spreading light rain and sprinkles across the region. In the wake of the cold front that passed through last night the Northland has been left with some unseasonably cool temperatures. Additionally, the low freezing level and little instability available has produced isolated areas of pea sized hail. Areas of pea sized hail with these showers will likely be limited to northeast portions of the Arrowhead where the freezing level is about the same as it was today. Temperatures will rebound tomorrow as the cold north wind will back to out of the west and highs will climb into the lower 70s.
Issued by National Weather Service Lincoln IL 305 PM CDT Mon Jun 21 2021 305 PM CDT After the active weather the last few days, we're in for some quiet conditions through Tuesday, as a broad upper trough drifts across the Great Lakes. A weak disturbance will slide down the ridge and into northern Illinois late Tuesday night.
FGC Previous discussion: Upper ridge over the west will dominate the weather pattern for much of the week.
1259 PM CDT Mon Jun 21 2021 (Today and tonight) Earlier this morning, anafrontal convection rapidly expanded and intensified across southern Kansas, in response to forcing from amplifying northern/central Plains upper trough.
Temperatures on Tuesday will be close to climo norms with some weak waa and rising heights as the upper ridge shifts closer to the Rockies. Southerly flow Tuesday night should keep temps a bit warmer.
1155 AM MDT Mon Jun 21 2021 The cold front will have moved south of the area by sunrise and all showers should come to an end by sunrise. With high pressure building in, all-in-all today looks like a really nice first day of astronomical summer. We will go back into the heat Tuesday as flow turns more westerly and ridging begins to build back into the Rockies. Temperatures will rise into the 90s once again across many of the lower elevations.
249 PM CDT Mon Jun 21 2021 Skies are partly cloudy across much of the Mid-South this afternoon with temperatures ranging from the lower 70s to mid 80s. The cold front currently moving through west Tennessee and eastern Arkansas. Temperatures will turn cooler behind the front with lows Tuesday morning in the upper 50s to mid 60s. By Tuesday morning, the cold front will be well to the south of the Mid-South with rain ending from extreme southern areas.
1048 AM CDT Mon Jun 21 2021 A strong cold front is making quick progress across eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas this morning. The cold front is expected to be near the Red River by 18z.
Weak return flow develops Tuesday morning with winds becoming southerly and highs rising in to the 70s for highs as 500mb ridging builds into the area.
333 PM EDT Mon Jun 21 2021 A cold front will move across the area this afternoon.
Upper trof over the central and eastern CONUS will slowly progress to the east, as a ridge aloft starts to build over the Pacific NW/southwest Canada. As the ridge builds north, energy will get deflected southeast toward the Northern Plains later in the week.
The other area is along and ahead of a cold front northern KY through northeast AR. With the passage of the cold front and only lingering light rain showers early Tuesday morning, have opted to expire the Flash Flood Watch at 15Z. With added sunshine, temperatures may still reach 80 in a few areas, but some will stay in the 70s, especially the higher elevations.
Cold front was located from south of the DFW metroplex west to the Permian Basin. Temperatures will be cooler behind the front with highs slightly below normal. Upper level ridge will be over southwest Texas Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night and bring in drier air to the region from the north.
259 PM CDT Mon Jun 21 2021 The cold front has cleared the forecast area leaving much cooler temperatures in its wake.
154 PM CDT Mon Jun 21 2021 Cooler, calmer, and quieter weather is on the way tonight. A few showers may attempt to move southeast off the higher terrain in New Mexico, but are unlikely to make significant southeast progress. Lows are expected mostly in the mid to upper 50s, around 10 degrees cooler than normal. The upper level high pressure ridge will edge east into New Mexico with slightly more anticyclonic curvature over our region.
The latest HRRR now stops short of bringing convection back to the west of the I-75 corridor, and this seems more likely given just weak ridging moving back into the area from the southeast and no clear change in steering flow.
The upper trough does begin to depart the region during the day on Tuesday and return flow sets in by midday.
315 PM CDT Mon Jun 21 2021 Canadian high pressure building into the area with scattered cu this afternoon, and it feels more like early fall out there. Tonight: High pressure ridge settling over the area will bring ideal radiational cooling. Tuesday: The ridge shifts to the east allowing for a return flow of south to southwest winds. This will allow for warmer temperatures and increasing moisture, with dewpoints pushing back into the mid 50s in our sw cwa during the afternoon. Forecast soundings indicate at least moderate shear with a sw wind in the low levels and nw winds in the mid levels, increasing moisture, and freezing levels around 10k ft.
Winds and clouds will diminish this evening with high pressure sliding across the region. Forecast on track with highs struggling into the low to mid 60s this afternoon. Guidance in good agreement indicating Hudson Bay upper low will remain entrenched for the next couple days, placing the region in steep northerly flow aloft (as west coast ridge builds). Toward later Tuesday the west coast upper ridging will weaken as a system propagates across Canada, causing the overall pattern to become less amplified. Surface ridging will build into the region, although water vapor imagery indicates several weak upper level waves within the northerly flow aloft that will track near northwest Minnesota.
335 PM CDT Mon Jun 21 2021 20Z water vapor imagery shows broad upper troughing over the eastern two-thirds of the CONUS with the trough axis pushing east. Ridging is beginning to build back over the southwestern US while another upper low spins off the west coast. At the surface, last night's cold front has pushed well south to the OK/TX border leaving broad high pressure in its wake over much of the Plains and Rockies. As a result, temperatures are much cooler than we've seen recently and are on track to top out in the upper 70s to low 80s.
Later tonight, a cold front will move southward into central Texas but should remain well north of the CWA. Thanks to the increased cloud cover and potential rainfall, temperatures will be a bit lower tomorrow with highs in the low to mid 90s.
A cold front is expected to move south across the Big Country this afternoon, and through the rest of our area this evening and early tonight. Scattered thunderstorms are expected along and behind the front, with the higher coverage expected to be east of a Brownwood to Junction line. Timing of the cold frontal passage is expected to limit highs to the lower 90s in the Big Country. The GFS and NAM MOS continue to look too low with max temperatures today, given the 850mb thermal ridging pattern ahead of the front. In the wake of the frontal passage, temperatures will be considerably cooler tonight. Gusty northeast or north-northeast winds will follow the cold frontal passage and continue for at least a few hours, before dropping off to 6-10 mph overnight.
The threat for storms will come to an end later tonight as a cold front moves into the region and cooler and drier weather moves in for the remainder of the week. Eventually the convection comes to an end later tonight as a cold front moves in overnight. Cooler and drier air will help decrease the areal coverage of showers with a few lingering showers later on Tuesday over southern Vermont. Noticeable cooler temperatures will be on tap for Tuesday with highs in the 60s to around 70. A quiet stretch of weather is expected for the middle to end of the work week as a ridge of high pressure builds into the region.
/Issued 1048 AM CDT Mon Jun 21 2021/ A strong cold front is making quick progress across eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas this morning. The cold front is expected to be near the Red River by 18z.
Showers and thunderstorms already starting to fire ahead of the cold front off to our northwest. Dewpoints in the low to mid 70s and even some peeks at the sun this morning are providing plenty of heat and moisture, and models indicating high instability for these storms.
Farther upstream, narrow pockets of cirrus are evident atop an amplifying ridge covering much of the wrn CONUS; some of these upper-level clouds will stream across the area this aftn/eve. Mid-to-upper ridge axis over the wrn CONUS will gradually shift ewd over the next couple of days, deamplifying as it does so.
242 PM EDT Mon Jun 21 2021 The cold front has now moved through the forecast area and was located near the Ohio River extending into southern Ohio as of mid afternoon. An amplified upper level pattern will develop and help to shove the cold front away to the southeast tonight and Tuesday. highlighted by a ridge over the western US and a deep trough across the eastern half of the country. high pressure will expand into the region from the northwest tonight and Tuesday with cool northerly flow and a progressively drier airmass. isolated to scattered showers and perhaps a few rumbles of thunder will remain possible as the upper trough axis lingers back across the region. Subtle increases in cloud coverage will come Tuesday night as a warm front extends east into the lower Great Lakes.
An upper trough digging into the Tennessee and Ohio valleys tonight and into southern Georgia on Tuesday will push a cold front into the Deep South Tuesday afternoon into evening. Low temperatures tonight will be around normal in the low to mid 70s and highs tomorrow will be below normal in the 90s.
This high of PWAT values coupled with several hours and rounds of rain leads to a flooding threat.
By Tuesday night, the upper-level pattern will consist of a trough pulling away to the northeast through the St. Lawrence Valley and ridging over the Rockies. As the trough pulls out, heights aloft will rise.
102 PM EDT Mon Jun 21 2021 Scatted showers today will end this afternoon as a cold front moves southeast. Much cooler weather is ahead tonight and Tuesday.
(This evening through Tuesday) As of early afternoon, a cold front was moving southward through the Big Country and was located just north of I-20. Overnight, as the cooler air moves in, widespread cloud cover will develop underneath the frontal inversion, mainly south of I-20. Lows tonight should be about 10-15 degrees cooler than last night. Tomorrow, the cooler airmass should remain in place with generally northeast winds, turning east by afternoon. These factors should allow high temperatures to be in the low to mid 80s, which will be a welcome relief from the blast furnace conditions of the last few days.
Activity should be a little better organized overnight as the cold front moves into the area. The high PW air mass (from 2. Highs tomorrow should be a little cooler (from 5 to 8 degrees lower) for locations north of I-10.
1234 PM CDT Mon Jun 21 2021 GOES East water vapor at 2am showing a deep level long wave trough digging out across the Northern Plain/Upper Mississippi/Great Lakes regions. At the surface, a deep low pressure system (995mb) was centered just north of Green Bay WI. Gusty northwest winds were in place across our area on the backside of this low with peak gusts within the last hour generally in the 25 to 30 mph range. High pressure builds in tonight with mostly clear skies.
Broad troughing extending southward out of an upper level low over Hudson Bay will persist over the Upper Great Lakes Tuesday. The result will be cooler than normal temperatures persisting.
MVFR CIGs behind a cold front will give way to VFR conditions as clouds scatter out in the next few hours. VFR conditions will prevail through Tuesday afternoon, though winds out of the southwest will increase to 15 to 25 kts with gusts up to 35 kts due to an increasing pressure gradient owing to a passing warm front during the morning and early afternoon hours. Have decreased high temperature forecast by a degree or two, mainly in areas where the low cloud deck travels.
An upper level trough will move across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys tonight into Tuesday. An associated sfc cold front will move into the area during the day on Tuesday and stall across the area Tuesday evening. The deeply moist environment, along with ascent favored along the persistent trough axis and approaching surface boundary will continue to support the development of showers and thunderstorms over our through the day on Tuesday, some of which will likely produce heavy rainfall. High temps on Tuesday will only be in the low 80s due to the cloud and rain coverage. Lows tonight will range from the low 70s inland to mid 70s near the coast.
A mixture of VFR/MVFR and possibly some IFR during this taf cycle as a cold front and associated convection work through the region. With that, some strong/severe storms are possible at all terminals, with the highest probs being at TYS/TRI. CDG Chattanooga Airport, TN 66 80 60 85 65 / 80 50 10 10 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 65 78 58 83 62 / 90 70 10 10 0 Oak Ridge, TN 63 78 56 82 61 / 90 60 10 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 63 75 53 80 59 / 90 90 10 10 0.
1248 PM EDT Mon Jun 21 2021 A cold front will move across the area this afternoon.
349 PM EDT Mon Jun 21 2021 Ample moisture and approaching upper level trough will continue to promote shower and thunderstorm development this afternoon and evening. Behind the front a cooler and drier air mass returns to the state.
1233 PM CDT Mon Jun 21 2021 Key Points: -High temperatures today are expected to be 10-15 degrees below normal following a strong cold front that moved through the region overnight.
1101 AM MDT Mon Jun 21 2021 A longwave trough is centered across the upper Midwest, with northwest flow over the northern Plains. Upper ridging across the western CONUS will build through the day. Highs will be in the 70s, then warming over the next couple of days as a thermal ridge crosses the region.
Warmer and somewhat more humid conditions will return for the middle to latter part of the work week--along with a round or two of showers and thunderstorms. The western ridge and eastern trough large-scale upper pattern will remain in place throughout the period, with changes in amplitude primarily responsible for day-to-day variations in weather.
218 PM CDT Mon Jun 21 2021 Cold front has shifted south of the area early this afternoon and only a few showers remain over south central MO. A cooler and drier air mass continues to work into the area and we are seeing some clearing sky over the northwest portions of the CWA. Temperatures there have warmed slightly again into the lower 70s, but remain in the mid to upper 60s elsewhere. The area of high pressure will settle over the area tonight with a clearing sky, light wind and much cooler temperatures. Temperatures will still be much cooler than we had last week and over the weekend with highs on Tuesday in the upper 70s to low 80s.
311 PM EDT Mon Jun 21 2021 High pressure will weaken across the area tonight while low pressure moves across the Great Lakes and southern Canada. A cold front attached to the low will pass across the region Tuesday. This will be followed by quiet weather as high pressure builds across the Mid-Atlantic through the remainder of the work week. An area of low pressure will cross the Great Lakes and drag a cold front closer to our forecast area into the weekend. The cold front will continue across NJ/Delmarva during the day with more showers developing along it so likely or categorical pops for the morning then decreasing for the afternoon. Highs will be below normal reaching only in the low 60s N/W and low/mid 70s S/E.
As we head into tonight high pressure will move into the region which will lead to clearing skies.
Surface cold front is near a SDF/BWG line this hour and continues pushing steadily eastward. Highs likely will be in the low to mid 70s for most. This high will gradually strengthen and expand as it slowly drifts eastward during mid-week.
A trough off the CA coast will provide southerly flow and warmer temperatures today.
Showers and thunderstorms already starting to fire ahead of the cold front off to our northwest. Dewpoints in the low to mid 70s and even some peeks at the sun this morning are providing plenty of heat and moisture, and models indicating high instability for these storms. An approaching cold front sparks TSRA by 17z-18z at CKV, moving into BNA/MQY by 20z-21z, and CSV by 23z-00z.
Expect conditions to be dry and seasonably cool tonight as the persistent ridge over the west starts building back into the region. By Tuesday, a warm front will allow warm air to surge back into the region with temperatures pushing back into the upper 80s/lower 90s for the afternoon. The low level wind field will produce enough shear during the afternoon to present a marginal threat for severe storms late in the day with a few of the storms, though mid level lapse rates are not overly steep and instability profiles do not appear to favor very robust updrafts.
256 PM CDT Mon Jun 21 2021 The post frontal regime across the area has brought relatively very cool conditions as the surface ridging becoming more pronounced. One feature to watch for the rest of the day will be a broad trough with a fairly deep 1. This will make daytime highs a bit higher than previously advertised for Tuesday, likely settling into the lower to middle 80s, with slightly warmer temps across the western zones.
MVFR CIGS at KCHA should lift to VFR levels within a few hours, leaving all terminals VFR until TSRA along incoming cold front arrives this evening. CD Chattanooga Airport, TN 90 69 78 60 85 / 80 90 60 10 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 89 66 76 58 83 / 80 90 70 10 10 Oak Ridge, TN 89 64 76 56 82 / 80 100 60 10 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 88 64 73 53 80 / 60 90 80 10 10.
With northerly winds continuing through the evening, temperatures should remain cool with overnight lows in the 50s and Tuesday highs in the low to mid 80s.
Through this evening, storms along and ahead of the cold front will build southward bringing and end to this lull. A drier and slightly cooler airmass will advect in behind the front, resulting in dry weather for much of the northern and central half of the area on Tuesday. Between the cooler air behind the front and clouds/rain farther south, temps will run as much as 10 degrees below normal.
Satellite imagery shows the low cloud deck is experiencing several breaks. With dew points in the lower to middle 70s, expect stronger heating to produce MLCAPEs of 1500-2500 J/Kg this afternoon. A strong cold front was located near the OH River in KY and IL and extending into northern AR. The risk for strong to severe storms and flash flooding will continue through the overnight hours, as the cold front enters northwest Alabama this evening. Expect this activity to clear the forecast area by noon on Tuesday, and dry weather but well below normal temperatures will follow as an upper level trough axis centers over the region.
1253 PM EDT Mon Jun 21 2021 Thunderstorms, potentially strong to severe, are expected this afternoon and early evening with a crossing cold front. Cooler and dry conditions expected Tuesday followed by a warming trend through the week.
That will be followed by clearing skies tonight as much cooler and drier air filters into the region.
427 PM EDT Mon Jun 21 2021 A cold front will approach tonight and cross the area on Tuesday.
A few weak radar return have been noted throughout the day west of the James River associated with a vort lobe rotating around base of the upper level trough.
It will be unseasonably cool on Tuesday due to the cloud cover with highs mainly in the lower to middle 80s.
Starting the short term period, quiet conditions are expected, as an upper level ridge builds over New Mexico, bringing mostly synoptically sinking air to the region. Lows will cool into the low/mid 50s over the plains, low/mid 40s for the valleys, and into the upper 30s and low 40s in the mountains. The aforementioned upper level ridge will still be present over New Mexico. At the surface, a lee trough is expected to develop, and should allow for some gusty winds to materialize over the southeastern plains.
/issued 154 PM CDT Mon Jun 21 2021/ Cooler, calmer, and quieter weather is on the way tonight. A few showers may attempt to move southeast off the higher terrain in New Mexico, but are unlikely to make significant southeast progress. Lows are expected mostly in the mid to upper 50s, around 10 degrees cooler than normal. The upper level high pressure ridge will edge east into New Mexico with slightly more anticyclonic curvature over our region.
Canadian high pressure building into the area with scattered cu this afternoon, and it feels more like early fall out there. Tonight: High pressure ridge settling over the area will bring ideal radiational cooling. Tuesday: The ridge shifts to the east allowing for a return flow of south to southwest winds. This will allow for warmer temperatures and increasing moisture, with dewpoints pushing back into the mid 50s in our sw cwa during the afternoon. Forecast soundings indicate at least moderate shear with a sw wind in the low levels and nw winds in the mid levels, increasing moisture, and freezing levels around 10k ft.
756 PM EDT Mon Jun 21 2021 A cold front will move across the area this afternoon.
Cold front has shifted south of the area early this afternoon and only a few showers remain over south central MO. A cooler and drier air mass continues to work into the area and we are seeing some clearing sky over the northwest portions of the CWA. Temperatures there have warmed slightly again into the lower 70s, but remain in the mid to upper 60s elsewhere. The area of high pressure will settle over the area tonight with a clearing sky, light wind and much cooler temperatures. Temperatures will still be much cooler than we had last week and over the weekend with highs on Tuesday in the upper 70s to low 80s.