Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
743 PM EDT Tue Sep 24 2019 High pressure over the area will weakens and drift east tonight. A cold front will approach from the west on Wednesday, and move through the area during the late afternoon and evening.
Biggest forecast challenge in the near term is trying to determine rainfall amounts associated with the upcoming cold frontal passage later Wednesday night.
608 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2019 Current water vapor showing a strong mid-level trough moving through the Dakotas/northwest MN. This was pushing a cold front across MN with radar showing some showers and few storms firing along it. Breezy west winds and cooler conditions expected for Wednesday in the wake of the low and cold front. With lingering cooler cyclonic flow aloft, could see a few pop-up showers across northern WI. High pressure builds in Wednesday night for clear and cool conditions.
649 PM EDT Tue Sep 24 2019 High pressure will bring noticeably cooler temperatures and lower humidity through tomorrow.
630 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2019 Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible over central and southeast Illinois overnight into the first part of Wednesday, as a cold front pushes across the area. A more significant cold front is expected late this week, with another round of steadier rain. Upper level pattern looks to be somewhat similar to the one from the more recent rain event, with an upper low over Arizona opening up and lifting northeast to interact with a separate wave moving through the north central U.
For tomorrow, a hot day is expected with a low-level thermal ridge ahead of a cold front. The associated cold front will enter northern Oklahoma with a chance for showers/storms late afternoon into the evening hours. The highest chance will be across northeast Oklahoma, where the cap will be weaker.
356 PM MDT Tue Sep 24 2019 Sunny skies prevailed over the region this afternoon as a mid- level low pressure system moved to the northern Gulf of California (GOC). This positioning left eastern Utah and western Colorado under the col between the low to the south and the westerlies of the northern stream. The low circulation over the northern GOC doesn't move appreciably according to model consensus so expect conditions on Wednesday will be quite similar to today's.
613 PM EDT Tue Sep 24 2019 An upper level low will bring showers and thunderstorms to the region this evening.
1020 PM EDT Tue Sep 24 2019 High pressure will bring noticeably cooler temperatures and lower humidity through tomorrow.
701 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2019 Overnight temperatures will range from near 50 across the western half of the forecast area, except across the Pine Ridge region where lows could drop to near 45. Temperatures on Wednesday will be cooler from the upper 60s north to 75 to 77 southwest.
High pressure at the surface remains centered along the northeast gulf coast this morning with a ridge aloft noted over the same region. A weak upper disturbance is over East Texas and West Louisiana, however with a dry air mass in the low to mid levels no convection is associated with the disturbance. Today and Thursday the weak upper trough will move east with a ridge rebuilding. High pressure at the surface will remain centered east of the area.
High pressure surface and aloft will hold over the region with continued above normal temperatures due to strong large scale subsidence over the region.
Dew points range from the low 50s to low 60s, lowest near the Tennessee River. Tomorrow should be a bit warmer, but clouds and showers should keep conditions a bit more tolerable. By Wednesday night into Thursday a mid level trough moving through the Great Lakes will push a cold front toward the Mid-South. Rain chances start to taper off Thursday afternoon as the cold front weakens and the associated mid level trough pushes quickly east.
Mid afternoon conditions across this forecast area indicate a cold front has swept through most of the area and remains draped north to south across far eastern zones. Otherwise, expecting an area of high pressure to gradually move in from the west overnight the day on Wednesday. Cooler temperatures and more sunshine is expected. A western CONUS trough deepens this weekend and, along with high pressure sitting over the southeast CONUS, puts the region back into southwest flow.
1105 PM MDT Tue Sep 24 2019 Sunny skies prevailed over the region this afternoon as a mid- level low pressure system moved to the northern Gulf of California (GOC). This positioning left eastern Utah and western Colorado under the col between the low to the south and the westerlies of the northern stream. The low circulation over the northern GOC doesn't move appreciably according to model consensus so expect conditions on Wednesday will be quite similar to today's. As the low continues to lift to the northeast, and the atmosphere destabilizes with daytime heating, scattered showers are expected to develop over the San Juan Mountains Thursday afternoon/evening. A broad shallow trough then sets up over the western U.
1132 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2019 Overnight temperatures will range from near 50 across the western half of the forecast area, except across the Pine Ridge region where lows could drop to near 45. Temperatures on Wednesday will be cooler from the upper 60s north to 75 to 77 southwest. The next chance of some rain arrives Thursday night in the east, albeit mainly a slight chance as a cold front moves through.
Deep layer ridge settles just south of the area while a weak cold front stalls over Se Ga. Coastal areas will therefore be somewhat cooler but still reach the lower 90s prior to seabreeze development.
246 AM MDT Wed Sep 25 2019 08z surface analysis had secondary cold front moving through CWA. Thursday night, a cold front moves through with gusty northwest winds behind it.
Upper air analysis last evening showed a weak trough over South Texas and ridging to the north. The upper level ridging over North Texas will push southward forcing the trough out over the Gulf.
358 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2019 Today and Tonight: Mid-level ridging will remain firmly in place across the forecast area through the period. This will continue to promote hot conditions across the CWA, as highs this afternoon top out in the low to middle 90s under mostly sunny skies. A stationary, and slow eroding, boundary will also remain in the vicinity of the Highway 82 corridor today. With the drier air and warmer temperatures aloft, convection will once again be of an isolated nature.
329 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2019 Showers and storms continue to develop along and ahead of a cold front extending through northern Missouri. Some storms do have stronger updraft cores up to the low 30kft range as this feature passes through and area of MUCAPE near 2000 J/kg and effective bulk shear of 40kts. While this cold front does not bring a sharp airmass change in regards to temperatures, it will in regards to dewpoints.
This will be ahead of a cold front which will be moving southward through the area during the evening/overnight hours. Deep layer shear isn't very impressive, but given the instability (Sfc CAPE up around 2k), and low level moisture pooling ahead of the front (dewpoints into the low 70s), a few strong storms can't be ruled out. Dry conditions move in by afternoon area-wide as high pressure nudges southward towards our area. By the weekend, we will see a deep trof over the west U. and strong ridge centered over the southeast U.
403 AM EDT Wed Sep 25 2019 Expect mainly dry weather today behind high pressure departing to the east. A weak cold front may bring a few showers late this afternoon through Thursday morning.
By late afternoon, a cold front will make its way south into the region and may begin to focus storm activity.
With a fairly dry airmass in place across the region today, only a few scattered clouds have developed as the airmass continues to warm beneath a rather flat mid level ridge. Ridging across the Northern Gulf of Mexico will weaken throughout the week as the mid level pattern across the CONUS becomes more zonal through the short term period. Even some increase in dewpoints near the coast will result in afternoon heat indices into the low 100s through the middle part of the week.
The nearly stacked high pressure area centered over the northern gulf is progged to move little over the next couple of days leaving persistence as the best forecast option through Thursday.
The front stalled in south Arkansas will move back to the north tonight as a warm front. The boundary will remain over the region during the next 24-48 hours, as an upper ridge remains over the Gulf of Mexico. Several disturbances will move around the periphery of the ridge and interact with the stalled boundary, with showers and thunderstorms continuing. The boundary itself will move back to the north somewhat on Thursday or dissipate all together, as another cold front approaches from the north and shifts into northern Arkansas before stalling as it hits the ridge.
Weak upper level ridging persists over the eastern gulf and local region with zonal flow just north of our CWA. Time-height cross sections and forecast soundings show enough moisture trapped under the ridge for clouds to develop this afternoon but there is little to no chance for showers today.
High pressure will begin to move out tonight before small chances for showers and thunderstorms on Wednesday into Thursday as an upper level wave moves through the northern US and Canada.
1156 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2019 An upper trough continued to dig into the Northern Plains today, pulling northwesterly flow over the forecast area. At the surface, a cold front will drift southeast through southeast Minnesota, western Iowa, eastern Nebraska, and across central Kansas. southerly low level flow will pull moisture and warmer temperatures into the the region ahead of the front. Temperatures have climbed into the the low to mid 80s. There is a small chance for a few showers and storms as the low level jet increases late Thursday night.
1109 PM MDT Tue Sep 24 2019 As the upper trough shifts eastward this evening, northwesterly flow aloft will continue over the forecast area tonight and on Wednesday. On Thursday, a weakly defined upper ridge will cross the forecast area, before a weak upper trough crosses the region on Thursday night. A cold front will cross the forecast area Thursday night followed by gusty northwest winds and chances for showers.
253 AM MDT Wed Sep 25 2019 The cut off low pressure over the northern Baja has basically stalled out. Increasing cloud cover from the southwest will keep temperatures slightly warmer tonight than this morning. A wave dropping out of western Canada will pick up this low pressure and cause it to lift northeastward tomorrow. As this low lifts northward moisture will begin to advect into the region, which should result in shower and thunderstorm development during the late afternoon once things destabilize. The models are suggesting these storms could form further north in the higher terrain closer to the I-70 and points south.
Dry high pressure will keep VFR going through the next 24 hours.
Confidence remains on the low side for things impacting the TAFS at this time, so no mention of VCTS/VCSH.
High pressure at the surface and at 500mb, with PWATS hovering around 1 inch, plus or minus a little, no CAPE in the sounding, and a strong inversion just below 800mb will keep the weather quiet through the reminder of the week.
A weak cold front may bring a passing shower or sprinkles on Thursday. In the lower- levels, high pressure will move eastward across the Mid-Atlantic region, placing the CWA in southerly flow.
1127 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2019 Current water vapor showing a strong mid-level trough moving through the Dakotas/northwest MN. This was pushing a cold front across MN with radar showing some showers and few storms firing along it. Breezy west winds and cooler conditions expected for Wednesday in the wake of the low and cold front. With lingering cooler cyclonic flow aloft, could see a few pop-up showers across northern WI. High pressure builds in Wednesday night for clear and cool conditions. High pressure will hold across the region through Thursday but then fairly fast west-northwest flow aloft ushers in low pressure across the Dakotas into MN Thursday night with push of warm air advection and moisture transport into our area.
344 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2019 An upper trough is over the Upper Midwest with a cutoff low just south of California and Arizona. The upper low lifts north on Thursday; otherwise, conditions on Thursday will be similar to today with thunderstorms across mainly the higher terrain with dewpoints in the 50s and 60s.
Looking aloft, weak ridge axis extends across W TX into extreme NW LA and shifts southeast towards SE LA and the NE Gulf. Drier deep level airmass resides along the eastern flank of this ridge axis with PWATS near or below 1 inch. This higher thetae ridging is forecast to shift slightly south and east during the day Thu and the 500mb ridge axis shifts slightly southward as well.
343 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2019 Cold front associated with a northern branch wave was still over central portions of the CWA early this morning but modest moisture convergence and building CIN per recent RAP analyses should continue to keep precipitation largely in check until its passage late this morning.
Continue to have very cold temperatures aloft, and the 500mb trough axis will linger over northwest Minnesota today. Unlike yesterday, highs will also be about 10 degrees cooler and winds will be quite gusty from the northwest. High pressure builds to the south of the area tonight. However, if winds do go light, temperatures could get even cooler. In light wind and clear sky events, the Roseau to Thief Lake to Fosston areas usually get about 5 to 10 degrees cooler than surrounding spots. It still appears the best chances for rain will be north of the highway 2 corridor. It will remain on the cooler side, but winds will be much lower than Wednesday.
412 AM EDT Wed Sep 25 2019 High pressure will dominate today.
A cold front approaches the area late Wednesday night into Thursday morning with scattered showers possible, mainly Thursday morning.
404 AM EDT Wed Sep 25 2019 High pressure centered in West Virginia overnight will build eastward and it should pass off the coast this afternoon. A cold front extended from the western Great Lakes to the central Great Plains early this morning.
323 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2019 An upper trough and northwest winds at the sfc under high pressure will mean dry and cool conditions today. Temps will only top out in the 60s and then will fall into the lower 40s tonight under clear skies. The period begins with a cold front sweeping through the region Thursday night with showers possible.
337 AM EDT Wed Sep 25 2019 The morning surface analysis shows high pressure has pushed east into West Virginia and we are seeing southeast flow across eastern Kentucky. Tonight a cold front will move southeast toward eastern Kentucky through the night. Additional showers and isolated thunderstorms will be possible Thursday morning and afternoon as the aforementioned, albeit deamplified, troughing remains in place east of the Mississippi River. Drier and warmer weather will return to eastern Kentucky for late week, likely extending into the beginning of October.
939 AM EDT Wed Sep 25 2019 High pressure centered in West Virginia overnight will build eastward and it should pass off the coast this afternoon. A cold front extended from the western Great Lakes to the central Great Plains early this morning.
/issued 344 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2019/ An upper trough is over the Upper Midwest with a cutoff low just south of California and Arizona. The upper low lifts north on Thursday; otherwise, conditions on Thursday will be similar to today with thunderstorms across mainly the higher terrain with dewpoints in the 50s and 60s.
SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday): Infrared and water vapor satellite imagery shows a northwest flow occurring in the mid/upper levels over South Texas this morning; this flow is due to a weak mid- level inverted trough just to the west of Deep South Texas and a very weak mid-level low just east of CRP.
1039 AM EDT Wed Sep 25 2019 High pressure will dominate through tonight.
803 AM EDT Wed Sep 25 2019 High pressure will dominate through tonight.
Cold front associated with a northern branch wave was still over central portions of the CWA early this morning but modest moisture convergence and building CIN per recent RAP analyses should continue to keep precipitation largely in check until its passage late this morning.
335 AM MDT Wed Sep 25 2019 Colorado will be under a moderate northwest flow aloft today as a strong trof moves across the northern high plains.
A change begins over the weekend when a cold trough forms over the Great Basin and brings significant rains, especially eastern Nevada. Snow levels lower to the higher valley floors. Plenty of sunshine today means slightly warmer daytime temperatures.
A cold front will approach the terminals late in the TAF cycle with moisture increasing ahead of this boundary.
Mixing from daytime heating in the afternoon should also bring down some of that dry air to keep dew points and humidity down, so although air temperatures will be in the lower 90s, apparent temperatures will be kept in check. High pressure at the surface remains centered along the northeast gulf coast this morning with a ridge aloft noted over the same region. A weak upper disturbance is over East Texas and West Louisiana, however with a dry air mass in the low to mid levels no convection is associated with the disturbance. Today and Thursday the weak upper trough will move east with a ridge rebuilding. High pressure at the surface will remain centered east of the area.
/19/ Today and Tonight: Mid-level ridging will remain firmly in place across the forecast area through the period. This will continue to promote hot conditions across the CWA, as highs this afternoon top out in the low to middle 90s under mostly sunny skies. A stationary, and slow eroding, boundary will also remain in the vicinity of the Highway 82 corridor today. With the drier air and warmer temperatures aloft, convection will once again be of an isolated nature.
458 AM MDT Wed Sep 25 2019 08z surface analysis had secondary cold front moving through CWA. Thursday night, a cold front moves through with gusty northwest winds behind it.
An active weather pattern will continue through Thursday as an upper level low west of the area produces showers and thunderstorms across the area.
458 AM MDT Wed Sep 25 2019 The cut off low pressure over the northern Baja has basically stalled out. Increasing cloud cover from the southwest will keep temperatures slightly warmer tonight than this morning. A wave dropping out of western Canada will pick up this low pressure and cause it to lift northeastward tomorrow. As this low lifts northward moisture will begin to advect into the region, which should result in shower and thunderstorm development during the late afternoon once things destabilize. The models are suggesting these storms could form further north in the higher terrain closer to the I-70 and points south.
Deterministic and ensemble output suggests that a weak upper level disturbance will meander over the CWA/MSA Today/Tonight, then dissipate into a general weakness in the height field over the MSA Thursday, while an upper ridge builds from the west.
Main aviation concern is the thunderstorm potential tonight, with the highest likelihood of impacts being at the NE OK and far NW AR terminals from mid evening into early Thursday morning. By late afternoon, a cold front will make its way south into the region and may begin to focus storm activity.
Highs are expected to top out in the lower to middle 80s north, around 90 central, to the lower and middle 90s across southern AR. Upper level high pressure over the Gulf will help to halt the fronts progression southward stalling it out over central/ south central AR. Highs on Thursday will be in the lower to middle 80s north and central with north/northeasterly winds, while southern AR remains in the lower to middle 90s with south/southeasterly winds.
638 AM EDT Wed Sep 25 2019 High pressure will dominate today.
937 AM EDT Wed Sep 25 2019 A pleasant morning across South Florida with morning lows in the low 70s and some areas dropping below 70 into the 60s. High pressure continues to dominate the weather pattern for South Florida. High pressure at the surface and at 500mb, with PWATS hovering around 1 inch, plus or minus a little, no CAPE in the sounding, and a strong inversion just below 800mb will keep the weather quiet through the reminder of the week.
By tonight a weak upper level trough over the Great Lakes will move another cold front into the area from the west. By Thursday night, showers will start to die down as the front weakens and the associated trough moves towards the east coast.
High pressure remains over the southeast U. High pressure centered in the Gulf of Mexico will keep light winds and minimal seas over the gulf coast waters for the next several days.
545 AM MDT Wed Sep 25 2019 A south moving front will lead to cooler, near-normal, temperatures and partly cloudy skies across the High Plains and adjacent mountains today. Winds ease overnight as temperatures fall into the low 40s across the region and skies clear.
Winds will diminish this evening as high pressure moves through the area.
239 AM PDT Wed Sep 25 2019 A stalled low pressure system over Baja California will bring a chance of showers and thunderstorms today through Thursday with the best chances for measurable rain over the mountains and deserts.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 91 68 90 67 / 0 20 20 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 89 65 87 66 / 0 30 30 10 Oak Ridge, TN 89 65 86 64 / 0 30 30 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 85 59 82 61 / 0 20 30 20.
348 AM MDT Wed Sep 25 2019 A south moving front will lead to cooler, near-normal, temperatures and partly cloudy skies across the High Plains and adjacent mountains today. Winds ease overnight as temperatures fall into the low 40s across the region and skies clear.
628 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2019 An upper trough and northwest winds at the sfc under high pressure will mean dry and cool conditions today. Temps will only top out in the 60s and then will fall into the lower 40s tonight under clear skies. The period begins with a cold front sweeping through the region Thursday night with showers possible.
/issued 426 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2019/ SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday): Infrared and water vapor satellite imagery shows a northwest flow occurring in the mid/upper levels over South Texas this morning; this flow is due to a weak mid- level inverted trough just to the west of Deep South Texas and a very weak mid-level low just east of CRP.
1025 AM EDT Wed Sep 25 2019 Water vapor imagery along with analysis continues to show an amplified pattern across the region with an upper level ridge bookended by two upper level troughs. Upper level ridge has shifted slightly southeast from its position this time yesterday. Upstream of this feature a trough continues to dig into the west coast. Meanwhile, the trough downstream has become less amplified and is starting to shift and lift to the northeast.
Temperatures climb into the upper 80s to near 90 degrees along the coast this afternoon, and into the low to mid 90s further inland. Tonight, temperatures will fall into the upper 60s to around 70 degrees again, though some normally cooler spots may drop into the mid 60s.
A weak cold front may bring a passing shower or sprinkle on Thursday. In the lower- levels, high pressure will move eastward across the Mid-Atlantic region, placing the CWA in southerly flow.
A jet streak organizes on the southeast flank of the cutoff low through the afternoon which begins to kick the low out to the northeast overnight. Through the day Thursday, the low becomes less organized as the jet streak stretches/shears it, and ejects it to the northeast across northern Arizona.