Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Cold front currently from far NW AR through east central OK and will continue southward through KFSM/KMLC by late afternoon. Cold front currently just south of Interstate 44 continues to make steady progress southward supported by a broad region of pressure rises. Widespread showers and isolated thunderstorms also continue along and just ahead of the boundary and this trend will likely continue into early afternoon w/ a gradual decrease in coverage as the low level jet weakens.
144 PM EDT Thu Apr 20 2017 An approaching cold front will bring showers and thunderstorms through tonight, followed by cooler temperatures into the weekend. This will help increase low level instability, and with increasing shear with the approach of a mid level closed low over the Great Lakes will help fire showers and thunderstorms with an approaching front. Cold front crosses region toward sunrise Friday morning as cooler and drier air works southeast behind the front.
327 PM CDT Thu Apr 20 2017 Upper level ridging is impinging on the area from the southwest and showers considerably less numerous than yesterday. Fog will erode quickly on Friday but upper level ridging and associated capping should limit rain chances even more than today.
245 PM MDT Thu Apr 20 2017 Clouds increasing over the CWA this afternoon with showers also increasing gradually over and near the higher mtns. This system will continue to drop southeast overnight and close off an upper low over Colorado during the day Friday. Much cooler over much of the CWA Friday given clouds and pcpn with chilly conditions Friday night.
In the upper levels a ridge will be over the Southeast.
224 PM MDT Thu Apr 20 2017 Current surface analysis shows an area of low pressure over the Great Lakes region with high pressure centered over eastern Wyoming and the western Dakotas. Upper level analysis has a ridge over the northern plains with a trough extending down the west side of the Rockies.
/Tonight through Friday/ The upper low approaching the Great Lakes will continue to lift off to the Northeast through this evening. High pressure both at the surface and aloft will be in place Friday and this will push a low that is developing over the Plains to the South of the region. Friday will be dry and cool with some high cloud cover from the low shifting to the South but overall we should see plenty of sun.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms have developed in our CWA this afternoon with upper trough passing through. Tonight's lows will average about 10 degrees colder than last night with patchy frost by morning in the lower valleys. The upper trough will be east of us by morning with cool, dry northwesterly flow to follow on Friday.
Showers are tapering off this morning and will continue to taper off through the day as an upper level ridge builds over the region. The remnants of a weakening long wave trough is now moving onshore. A new long wave trough has already set up offshore between 150W and 160W. It has pumped up ridge ahead of it. and that ridge will build into the west coast tonight into Friday. This will make for a dry and much warmer day Friday. The ridge will break to the east of the area Friday evening and the flow aloft will turn southwesterly again.
High pressure building off the coast will bring a warming and drying trend to the Bay Area and Monterey Bay region through Friday. Synoptically a ridge of high pressure will build into our region over the next 36 hours which will lead to warmer temperatures on Friday along with mostly sunny conditions. Highs tomorrow will likely be the warmest of the week with 60s to mid 70s at the coast while inland spots will be in the mid 70s to the lower 80s. Dry weather will continue over the weekend although temperatures will lower a few degrees both days as the ridge of high pressure moves off to the east.
But, ultimately as the upper trough shifts east tonight, a ridge will push in from the west, leading to widespread subsidence across the region, and clearing skies. For tomorrow, the high will slowly push across north central MN to the east. In the meantime, a cool dry Canadian air mass will remain across Minnesota and Wisconsin in the wake of the cold front that pushed through the region overnight.
248 PM EDT Thu Apr 20 2017 High pressure off the coast will move further east today. A cold front will drop into the Mid Atlantic Friday.
A cold front currently extends from northwest Indiana through southeast Missouri and into southwest Texas. Temperatures will remain on the warm side with lows Friday morning in the low to mid 60s. The cold front will continue to push slowly south into north Mississippi on Friday with more thunderstorms expected. The air will be a little cooler behind the front so temperatures will vary some depending on where the front is in the afternoon with highs ranging from the upper 60s to lower 80s.
411 PM CDT Thu Apr 20 2017 Cold front has moved through the area, leaving all of northeast Kansas and northwest Missouri in a drier and cooler air mass for the next several hours. Expect cooler temperatures over the next several days as north/northeast winds keep cool air flowing into the area.
343 PM CDT Thu Apr 20 2017 (Tonight and Friday) As of mid afternoon, a surface cold front was moving slowly south across northwest Texas. This front is expected to stall roughly along a Sweetwater to Haskell line this evening, then lift back north as a warm front late tonight and early Friday due to pressure falls in the lee of the Rockies. (Friday Night through Thursday) A strong cold front will move south across West Central Texas Friday night, bringing gusty north winds and much cooler temperatures for this weekend.
250 PM EDT Thu Apr 20 2017 more widespread storms late tonight as a cold front crosses the region.
The rest of the forecast appears on track and highs this afternoon should range from the lower 90s out west to lower/mid 80s across the northeast. Otherwise, a somewhat flat upper ridge will build over the CWA/MSA during the period with a gradual decrease in PWAT values.
414 PM CDT Thu Apr 20 2017 A cold front was located over central Missouri this afternoon, roughly near a kstl-ksgf line at 19z. On Friday, the cold front will move down across Tennessee and Arkansas. Rain is very likely across the region as a 500 mb closed low approaches from the Plains. Highs will range from the mid 50s to mid 60s in the cooler north surface flow.
Well above normal temperatures will persist over the next several days, with an amplified ridge this weekend helping the lower deserts push triple digits for the first time in 2017.
226 PM EDT Thu Apr 20 2017 Ridge of high pressure will remain over the area through early Friday with the remains of a frontal boundary north of the area.
The lead wave will eject out into the central plains tonight with showers/storms developing over the Texas panhandle and Oklahoma, as the low-level jet and moisture advection increases ahead of this lead wave.
There is a slight chance of lightning along the cold front, however chances are still fairly low through early this evening.
317 PM PDT Thu Apr 20 2017 Dry and warmer weather for Friday and into the weekend.
Water vapor loop indicated an upper level trough over west central MN. Also an upper level trough was located over central SASK. Another band of rain was located over central and western ND with SASK trough. A cold front will move out Canada Sat and bring the next batch of rain.
An upper level trough across the eastern plains this morning will lift east northeast into the upper Midwest Today. At 2AM the surface cold front extended from Atchison, southwest to west of Topeka, then southwest to near Council Grove. These light showers were in response to the larger scale ascent ahead of the H5 trough axis. I suppose the northern counties could see scattered light rainshowers or sprinkles through the mid morning hours but they should end as the H5 trough axis shifts northeast into IA later this morning. Tonight, Another upper trough will move east across the central Rockies into the central high plains by 12Z.
319 PM CDT Thu Apr 20 2017 At 3 PM, a trough was located across central Wisconsin and central Minnesota. The combination of this trough and 950 to 900 mb lapse rates greater than 8 C/km kept instability showers going across central Wisconsin.
Today a cold front will move through during the afternoon/evening hours and bring showers and chances for thunderstorms sweeping through. Cold air will spill in behind the front for Friday and the weekend as another low pressure system moves across the Tennessee valley and brings rain to at least southern parts of central Indiana.
257 PM EDT Thu Apr 20 2017 Low pressure will move slowly east into New England through Friday. The approaching low and a cool onshore flow will provide rain to the region tonight through Friday night with some wet snow and sleet possible across the higher terrain near the international border.
301 PM CDT Thu Apr 20 2017 A cold front was located over central Missouri this afternoon, roughly near a kstl-ksgf line at 19z. On Friday, the cold front will move down across Tennessee and Arkansas. Rain is very likely across the region as a 500 mb closed low approaches from the Plains. Highs will range from the mid 50s to mid 60s in the cooler north surface flow.
As the mid level trof moves across the Southern Plains the cold front will surge swd passing thru all of the PB by 06Z/Sat. Isentropic lift will be confined in the 295-300K layer (~1500 ft) and will promote the development of low clouds and in the absence of a notable shrtwv trof precip is not expected, although -DZ/FG is possible thru mid Sat AM? NAM12 is the coolest and keeps clouds in thru mid day Sat. For now we will forecast highs 60-70, except warmer in the lower elevations of the Trans Pecos, but temps could need to be dropped 5 degrees if clouds hold in.
The slow moving upper low, with a trough extending upstream/back to the northwest suggests we will struggle to see any sunshine and what does make it through will only support additional low level clouds. A weak upper ridge begins to move into the region this evening/overnight. Despite this, a lack of mixing and ample low level moisture will result in fog development with an induced high pressure overhead. Also lowered lows for the tonight period to follow the trend of cooler highs today. That will have to wait for the weekend if not longer, with Canadian high pressure dominating the rest of the forecast and 850mb temperatures stuck between +1 and +4C Friday.
Highs on Friday will be a few degrees warmer than today. Temps should climb into the lower/middle 90s over the Rio Grande to middle/upper 80s over the Victoria Crossroads. Upper trough will be moving into the Central Plains by tomorrow afternoon, resulting in a slight uptick in onshore winds. The associated cold front will be moving southward across the state Friday night.
A flat upper ridge axis extends NE from Mexico into Central TX and traps an area of enhanced moisture over the Coastal Prairies today. The flat ridging aloft should make for a rain-free day on Friday with a continued warming trend.
A ridge of high pressure will then build into the area Friday night. The HRRR shows the showers continuing through morning with a line of showers marking the cold front finally moving through the Central Mountains between 12-15Z Friday morning. 00Z models a bit slower with passage of cold front Friday, so have held onto the chance of morning showers over all but the northwest mountains.
At 500 mb there was a weak low near the MN/ND border with a weak trough extending south into our area. Then there was a negative tilted trough from off the coast of the Pacific Northwest down into northern AZ. Early afternoon surface analysis showed northwest winds in our area, but a ridge of high pressure was building toward the eastern Dakotas and eastern NE.
225 PM MST Thu Apr 20 2017 High pressure will remain in control of the weather this week, keeping the storm track to our north. Breezy conditions will affect the region today and Friday while a weak disturbance passes by to the north, but temperatures will hold in the 90s across the lower elevations. Dry and even warmer conditions are forecast for the weekend as highs will likely hit 100 across many desert locations.
Currently, S/WV trough over the Northern Plains with two embedded impulses, one over southeastern ND and a secondary wave over western ND. Warmer west where we expect more sun along with southerly return flow. Upper level ridging/high pressure will result in dry and mild conditions Friday.
259 PM EDT Thu Apr 20 2017 Showers and thunderstorms are expected into tonight as a cold front pushes east across the region.
A cold front extends from eastern IA to southeast KS. Fri-Fri night-Sat: The upper low closes off over western KS early then moves east reaching close to the MO/KS border by 09z/4am overnight. Strong lift will occur in the exit region of jet rounding the base of the upper low with periods of heavy rain Fri- Fri night, then tapering off/diminishing late Fri night into Sat as the best lift shifts east.
As low pressure moves through the area, showers will linger through most of the night across mainly Elko County.
A cold front will drop southeast of central Indiana this evening putting an end to the thunderstorms. Friday, high pressure moves into temporarily before the frontal boundary returns to the area late Friday. Cold front will be across the central parts of Indiana and move to the vicinity of the Ohio River by 21/12Z. Next mid/upper level short wave trough will move out the the southern Plains and become positively tilted and elongated with the previous trough. Thus, the frontal boundary that moves through late Friday will sag southward into central KY before trying to make its way northward as a warm front. As low pressure develops along the front over eastern KS/western MO isentropic lift will develop widespread rain along and north of the front.
A passing upper level low over the upper Midwest will slightly suppress upper level heights across the Midsouth, while surface dewpoints warm into the 60s this afternoon and serve to weaken convective inhibition. Tonight will see continued gradual midlevel height falls, exposing the Midsouth to stronger westerlies while a surface cold front drops into northeast AR toward morning.
Cold front now dropping though south central Kansas which was the focus for surface based convection earlier.
1234 PM CDT Thu Apr 20 2017 The cold front is sloooowly working it's way through the forecast area this morning. Cooler temperatures can be expected today with northerly winds as a high pressure area passes through.
With the high coming in, winds will decrease overnight and become light and variable.
There is very little shear to work with, so am not expecting very much organization with this activity (which will favor the high terrain thanks to some added orrographic lift). the with a low pressure system and associated front approaching the southern Appalachians from the west.
For Friday after the morning fog, blocking high pressure results in subsidence and mostly sunny conditions with highs in the 60s.
1210 PM MDT Thu Apr 20 2017 Current surface analysis shows low pressure over eastern Iowa, with weakening area of low pressure also over southern Manitoba. Upper level analysis shows trough over eastern ND and northern MN, with showers now northeast of the CWA.
402 PM EDT Thu Apr 20 2017 A low pressure area and a warm front will approach the North Country overnight and will bring rain to the region.
Temperatures will peak slightly cooler than the seasonal normals, with the warmest readings in the Missouri River valley where strato- cu has thinned.
1235 PM CDT Thu Apr 20 2017 Cold front draped across Central Illinois today making slow progress to the SE. Have updated some of the high temps as well as the hourlys as areas NW of the IL River Valley will have very little in the way of warming behind the boundary. 08z/2am surface map shows 1008mb low over northeast Iowa with a cold front trailing southwestward to Oklahoma. Lows will range from the lower 40s far north. to the lower 50s far SE. Models have been consistently shifting the low track further south and the 00z Apr 20 suite is no exception.
A cold front moving south into the northern Big Country this evening will bring VCSH to KABI. /issued 420 AM CDT Thu Apr 20 2017/ (Today and Tonight) An upper trough moving into the Great Lakes region today will push a surface cold front into the northern Big Country by early evening. The cold front is expected to then lift northward out of our area as a warm front through the overnight hours.
The northern half of the area remains in the lower 50s, while the south 1/2 is in the upper 50s. These are all cooler than the highs at 13Z today, which saw 60s to near 70 in the eastern 2/3. The south should see high clouds spreading in by late morning, while the norht sees holes in the lower clouds.
Low pressure will continue to push out of the region. The cold front associated with the low pushed through the CWA this afternoon, and we are firmly entrenched in CAA. There is an expansive area of clouds well upstream on the backside of the low, stretching across all of WI and into much of MN. Model consensus shows clouds lingering through the night before gradually clearing tomorrow as the low pushes completely out of the region. Winds will veer from the west to the north as high pressure builds in behind the low, leaving us firmly within CAA through most of the period.
The main focus still remains on heavy rain overnight tonight and continuing through Friday before decreasing Friday night as the cold front moves through. Second concern is the potential for strong to severe storms Friday evening as the cold front approaches. Warm sector may initiate along and ahead of the cold front as instability exceeds 1000 J/kg and nose of the 500mb jet nudges into the region.
202 PM EDT Thu Apr 20 2017 Low pressure will track NE across the Central Lakes this evening forcing a strong cold front across the forecast area. as high pressure builds into the Great Lakes.
644 PM EDT Thu Apr 20 2017 An approaching cold front will bring showers and thunderstorms overnight. Cooler temperatures and scattered showers for the weekend. Expect another line of storms to move through overnight, ahead of the cold front. Even with rain moving through many locations today, temperatures in eastern Ohio have rebounded into the lower 80s with dewpoints in the 50s, which would help to provide necessary instability for thunderstorms.
The northward trends of the models will not have a huge impact on the forecast with the best accumulating snow favored over the higher terrain from the Park to the Elk Ranges. The pattern in the central CONUS takes on a mini-Rex pattern as the negatively tilted trough over the Rockies undercuts the ridge of high pressure it will be replacing.
Short-term period tonight and Friday - The upper flow pattern this evening places the axis of a medium wave ridge over Northeast Montana. Tonight the trough splits further with the southern and more energetic portion under-cutting through Utah and Colorado. The northern portion of the wave sets up a weak cold front just east of the Divide by morning.
Another round of patchy fog will be possible overnight with the latest SREF, NAM and high resolution guidance indicating south central Louisiana as the highest probability area.
The cold front is easily discernible on radar as well as in the obs, and scattered showers and thunderstorms still exist in advance of the boundary. and clouds and northerly winds will keep the high temps tomorrow in the 50s. Rain chances tomorrow will return in the southern tier of the state as the stalled front slowly reverses as a warm front in the afternoon hours.
An upper level ridge will build offshore tonight and move over Western Washington on Friday bringing sunny and warmer weather.
The thermal trof will continue to build across MN into Wisconsin today with near northeast Iowa. The extensive clouds in the north will limit highs today with readings holding in the low to mid 50s. Would be more concerned about lower temperatures by daybreak on Friday but overnight winds should stay higher until sunrise, keeping readings a bit warmer than would be expected had the winds gone still facilitating radiational cooling.
High pressure ridge axis to remain across the region at the surface and aloft and will produce above normal temps and mainly dry conds as the steering flow slowly becomes more southerly.
An upper level ridge. while ridging back west with an axis that hangs close to 30 North Latitude. Over the weekend a mid/upper level disturbance over the southern Gulf of Mexico will get pulled northeastward ahead of a deepening trough moving across the eastern United States.
244 PM CDT Thu Apr 20 2017 243 PM CDT Latest radar imagery depicting shower and thunderstorm development still ongoing across northwest Indiana, ahead of departing cold front. Cold advection on the back side of this system is ushering in cooler temps, with 50s being observed over northwest Illinois.
An upper level trough moves across the western states emerging into the central plains on Friday into Friday night. As the trough moves further out into the plains, a cold front will move south entering the Hill Country and Central Texas portions of the I-35 corridor after Midnight Friday night.
An upper level trough will pull out of the Rockies and across the central high plains midday Friday, with upper heights expected to fall our area during the night. But looming to the north will be a rather notable cold front expected to move into our northern zones late in the afternoon, and central areas probably by early evening.
Upper level ridging covers the SE CONUS. Highs will reach the upper 80s all but the coastal areas where temps will be in the lower to mid 80s.
An upper ridge ridge was across the area with a dry and stable airmass. Low level flow was easterly thanks to Atlantic high pressure ridging west. The upper ridge will preclude any significant rainfall. An axis of high pressure north of the waters will provide prevailing easterly winds today but with a gradient relaxed enough to allow an afternoon sea breeze to back winds to an onshore component.
Highs today will climb into the lower 30s with wind chill values in the single digits/lower teens.
This will swing a ridge across the forecast area during the morning hours. Southwest winds will return behind the ridge, ushering in a slight warm-up.
Upper level low pressure dropping slowly south into Northern MN and the Western Great Lakes region continues to spiral PVA across the northern plains. May need to extend wind headlines for the overnight period as a secondary cold front moves south into the region.
305 AM CDT Mon Oct 30 2017 Water vapor imagery shows the cold front moving rapidly to the south with decent CAA over the region. However, this will also make is Max temperatures for Tuesday difficult and could be cooler than currently forecast.
Aloft a low tracks along the Appalachian chain toward Canada with broad troughing over the Gulf of Mexico shifting east. The center of high pressure moving across the region to the Western Atlantic by mid week will allow winds and seas to continue to subside.
1246 AM CDT Mon Oct 30 2017 A cold front has reached the northern and western fringes of the forecast area the past hour. which should end up in most locations struggling to make it out of the lower to middle 40s by Monday afternoon. most locations will likely remain above freezing early Monday morning as breezy winds and mostly cloudy skies should help keep overnight lows somewhat elevated. this chance for light rain has been removed as model data no longer supports this and the atmosphere remains too dry in the lower levels to justify a continued mention for rain.