Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
649 PM CDT Thu Oct 6 2016 The next 12 hours look to be a bit busy as storms persist across the region ahead of, and eventually along, a cold front that will sweep through far eastern Kansas and Missouri later tonight. It is this large trough it will push the frontal boundary southeast trough eastern Kansas and Missouri tonight. The low levels of the atmosphere have remained a bit stable in area due to the cloud cover from the convection earlier today.
Generally VFR to MVFR conditions are expected through the valid period at area TAF sites as a cold front sweeps through eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas tonight. Gusty northerly winds will be the highlight of the TAFs during the day on Friday. This boundary marked by enhanced backing of low level winds along KS/OK border, and a few severe storms have developed this afternoon near intersection of cold front and outflow boundary. These storms will have enhanced severe potential trough this evening, including a limited tornado threat. Additional storms are expected to develop along the advancing cold front and move into northeast Oklahoma later this evening. Front will usher in a much cooler airmass Friday with low rain chances lingering in southeastern areas Friday morning.
An inverted trough extending northeast from the low has become an effective warm front stretching across southwest and central Iowa. After late evening/around midnight the front will surge through with gusty northwest winds kicking in and cooler and drier air pushing into the state. Despite ample sunshine during the day, much cooler temperatures and breezy conditions will make it feel blustery on Friday as thermal trof crosses the state.
657 PM MDT Thu Oct 6 2016 Forecast focus in the short term is the high likelihood of frost across the entire forecast area tonight and into Friday morning. A cooler and dryer airmass moves in, northwest winds turn southwest and become light, and skies become mostly clear. As this happens, temperatures will cool below 36 degrees beginning over northeast Colorado with cooler temperatures expected to spread southeastward across far southwest Nebraska and northwest Kansas. Far eastern Colorado could see temperatures drop slightly below 30 degrees while the remainder of northwest Kansas and southwest Nebraska will see overnight lows mainly in the lower 30s.
High pressure will bring a drier and warmer airmass through the end of the week.
This boundary also separates rain-cooled air in the low-mid 70s to the northwest of it from summerlike air in the mid to upper 80s to the southeast of it. Should see a small token chance along this outflow for another few hours until sunset, when the rain chances then reset along the cold front well to our west. Given the lack of destabilization from the pre-existing cold pool ahead of the cold front and sunset approaching, it may very well shield our region from any strong- severe storms with only a small area clipped by a SPC slight risk in northeast MO. Decent CAA behind front should allow temps to slip into the low 50s behind the front and remain in the 60s ahead.
353 PM PDT THU OCT 6 2016 Dry weather and warmer interior temperatures will prevail the rest of the week as high pressure moves over the region.
Expect seasonable temperatures and light northeast winds tonight and Friday as high pressure briefly moves across Arizona.
815 PM EDT Thu Oct 6 2016 High pressure will provide another clear cool night followed by a mostly sunny and mild day tomorrow.
/issued 157 PM CDT THU OCT 6 2016/ Significant changes to the weather including much cooler temperatures and increasing chances of precipitation are in the offing across west Texas and southeast New Mexico beginning tonight and continuing through the weekend. An upper level trough across the Rockies and Plains will move northeast into the northern Plains Friday. This will allow a strong cold front to plunge south through the forecast area late tonight and Friday morning. Much cooler temperatures and breezy to windy conditions are expected Friday with very windy conditions expected through the Guadalupe Pass of west Texas.
1130 PM CDT Thu Oct 6 2016 For the ArkLaTex, VFR until daybreak with few cu from KTYR to KTXK ahead of an approaching cold front. weak upper level ridging is dominating the Lower Miss Valley and has resulted in a wedge of much drier air into our region from the east.
Winds will turn further East and offshore this afternoon and evening as high pressure continues to build over the Great Basin and Northern Rockies behind and upper trough moving through the central U. The offshore winds will downslope through the high desert and over the Tehachapi Mountains resulting in warming and drying especially across the Kern County Mountains and South end of the San Joaquin Valley. An upper ridge over the EPAC will begin shifting inland tonight ushering a warming trend. The ridge will be over the interior West this weekend with temps climbing to several degrees above normal.
1026 PM EDT Thu Oct 6 2016 Above normal temperatures will continue into Friday as high pressure moves off the New England coast while a cold front approaches from the west.
Rap Refresh model low level thermal progs indicate the coldest air at 850hpa (-2C to 0C) is moving up over KATY right now while surface to 925hpa thermal progs remain above freezing.
916 PM EDT Thu Oct 6 2016 An upper ridge of high pressure will weaken and move to the east tonight and Friday.
206 PM MDT Thu Oct 6 2016 Satellite shows lingering light snow showers over the higher terrain of Berthoud and Cameron pass that will last for the next few hours. Freezing level will continue to be around 7,500 ft in the mountains but with a surge of cold air from the NE some light snow will be possible over Sedgwick and Phillips counties over the next few hours. As the upper trough continues to make its way across the state subsidence and drying behind it will help to clear out conditions through the evening. For Friday the upper level trough will be over western Kansas with ridging moving into Colorado. Highs will rebound back into the lower to mid 60s on the plains under mostly sunny skies.
1027 PM EDT Thu Oct 6 2016 Ridge/valley temperature differences have become greater than forecast this evening, and the forecast range for morning lows has also been expanded. Ridging aloft and at the surface gets pinched off as a trough approaches from the west and Hurricane Matthew rides northward along the U.
649 PM EDT Thu Oct 6 2016 High pressure will bring dry conditions and mild temperatures through Friday night.
656 PM CDT Thu Oct 6 2016 Strong upper low continues to churn in south central Canada at this time. On the southern periphery of this low, vigorous short wave energy is moving rapidly northeastward squarely across this area and eastern Nebraska through 06Z this evening before exiting. At the surface, low pressure over central KS is extending an inverted trough northeastward into northern IA. Despite the deep northerly flow in the low levels, some TSRA is inching northward into our southern zones at this time due to instability in the mid levels, governed by a southwest flow aloft.
At 23Z a strong cold front was just entering the northwest corner of Oklahoma (east of the Panhandle), approaching KGAG and KWWR. Additional storms are expected to form along a cold front in northwest/north central Oklahoma by early evening. Storms will continue to form along a cold front during the evening and overnight with a risk of hail and damaging winds.
The amount of moisture moving into the region will counteract some of the wind, but there still may be gusts and choppy waves on area lakes by the afternoon once the cold front passes.
804 PM EDT Thu Oct 6 2016 Above normal temperatures will continue into Friday as high pressure moves off the New England coast while a cold front approaches from the west.
Cold front will move into the area late tonight, reaching KABI (Abilene) shortly before sunrise. Thunderstorms and Another Cold Front. Another cold front will push south across West Central Texas late tonight and tomorrow. By tomorrow afternoon, expect winds from the north and cooler temperatures, with most of the thunderstorm activity along or near our Interstate 10 corridor.
730 PM EDT Thu Oct 6 2016 An upper ridge of high pressure will weaken and move to the east tonight and Friday.
Winds will become northeasterly Friday in advance of the cold front that arrives Friday night. Isolated convection will be possible in the afternoon with the higher threat in the LRD area. Should be another warm day on Friday ahead of cold front. Expect a gradual wind shift to the northeast with pre frontal trough, but front itself should move through Friday night with a brief wind increase.
859 PM CDT THU OCT 6 2016 An area of low pressure, currently centered over Iowa, is forecast to race northeast to Lake Superior by daybreak Friday. The trailing cold front should be moving into western portions of the forecast area by daybreak as well. Showers/storms have been increasing in coverage along the surface front, associated with a vigorous upper-level trof and strengthening (currently 40kt) low- level jet. Most short-range/high resolution guidance suggests a significant weakening and/or diminishing coverage of the upstream convection overnight before the cold front gets here. Main feature will be later in the night though, as the cold front works its way eastward. 500 mb trof axis forecast to shift to our east Friday night taking any lingering threat for showers to our east early in the evening.
1147 PM CDT THU OCT 6 2016 An area of low pressure, currently centered over Iowa, is forecast to race northeast to Lake Superior by daybreak Friday. The trailing cold front should be moving into western portions of the forecast area by daybreak as well. Showers/storms have been increasing in coverage along the surface front, associated with a vigorous upper-level trof and strengthening (currently 40kt) low- level jet. Most short-range/high resolution guidance suggests a significant weakening and/or diminishing coverage of the upstream convection overnight before the cold front gets here. Main feature will be later in the night though, as the cold front works its way eastward. 500 mb trof axis forecast to shift to our east Friday night taking any lingering threat for showers to our east early in the evening.
644 PM EDT Thu Oct 6 2016 High pressure will linger over New England into the evening then drift offshore. Low pressure over the Central Plains will track northeast through the Upper Great Lakes on Friday. The cold front associated with the low will cross the area Friday night. High pressure will return to the region over the weekend. Low pressure over the Central Plains will track northeast through the Upper Great Lakes on Friday. The cold front associated with the low will cross the area Friday night.
weak upper level ridging is dominating the Lower Miss Valley and has resulted in a wedge of much drier air into our region from the east. /issued 840 PM CDT Thu Oct 6 2016/ For the ArkLaTex, VFR until daybreak with few cu from KTYR to KTXK ahead of an approaching cold front.
635 PM EDT Thu Oct 6 2016 An upper ridge of high pressure will weaken and move to the east tonight and Friday.
A northwest flow aloft will be over the forecast area tonight before high pressure ridging begins to build over the area during the day Friday. Overnight lows will drop near freezing again by Friday morning. How chilly and what locations hit freezing will depend on how much and for how long the cloud cover clears as we are still expecting considerable clouds tonight.
253 PM MDT Thu Oct 6 2016 Broad upper trough sits across the central CONUS with the upper low across central Canada. Dry weather is then expected the rest of the night and Friday with high pressure in control. Temps tonight are expected to reach freezing across the CWA. except for nw SD which reached freezing temps early this morning.
550 PM MDT Thu Oct 6 2016 Forecast focus in the short term is the high likelihood of frost across the entire forecast area tonight and into Friday morning. A cooler and dryer airmass moves in, northwest winds turn southwest and become light, and skies become mostly clear. As this happens, temperatures will cool below 36 degrees beginning over northeast Colorado with cooler temperatures expected to spread southeastward across far southwest Nebraska and northwest Kansas. Far eastern Colorado could see temperatures drop slightly below 30 degrees while the remainder of northwest Kansas and southwest Nebraska will see overnight lows mainly in the lower 30s.
SHORT TERM (Tonight through Friday Night):500mb ridge across northern Mexico will continue to provide subsidence across northeast Mexico and deep south Texas tonight. The upper level ridge will move across southwest TX Friday but low to mid level moisture will increase across the coastal sections Fri afternoon and this will provide at least seabreeze convection across the coastal sections of the CWA. Will mention a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms across the area Friday afternoon as a weak cold front moves southward through north central TX.
However after mid morning or so, no issues expected through the short-range with the passage of a dry/no POPs cold front during afternoon/late afternoon hours tomorrow.
On the rainfall front, dual polarization radar rainfall estimates keep the highest amounts over southern Florida well below 2 inches for the event so far. APF will escape the higher winds but all the terminals will experience LIFR/IFR vsbys and MVFR/IFR cigs with the bands of Matthew as they impact the terminals.
741 PM EDT THU OCT 6 2016 High pressure exits tonight.
As an upper level trough currently over the northern and central Rockies moves east, a cold front that extended from southeastern Nebraska (southeast of Beatrice /KBIE/) through southwestern Kansas into extreme northeastern New Mexico at 3 PM, will move southeast. Scattered showers and thunderstorms have developed along the cold front and expect the areal coverage to increase through this evening.
/issued 301 PM CDT Thu Oct 6 2016/ SHORT TERM (Tonight through Friday Night):500mb ridge across northern Mexico will continue to provide subsidence across northeast Mexico and deep south Texas tonight. The upper level ridge will move across southwest TX Friday but low to mid level moisture will increase across the coastal sections Fri afternoon and this will provide at least seabreeze convection across the coastal sections of the CWA. Will mention a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms across the area Friday afternoon as a weak cold front moves southward through north central TX.
646 PM CDT THU OCT 6 2016 A cold front will move into the northwest corner of Arkansas late tonight around 07z. Scattered to broken low and mid clouds are expected Friday and the front will be in the southeast corner by the end of the period with high pressure moving in behind it.
The main effect of this trough is the CAA as seen on the vertical profile of the 00Z GGW sounding. Previous discussion - Synoptic Setup: Short term begins with a large trough over the middle third of the Canada and dropping down into the northern Great Plains of the the CONUS. A cool core ridge sets over the Pacific Northwest and beginning to nudge cold air out of Northeast Montana. Afterward conditions will dry as a weak meso-ridge moves through the flow.
955 PM EDT Thu Oct 6 2016 High pressure will bring dry conditions and mild temperatures through Friday night.
811 AM PDT FRI JUL 29 2016 Low amplitude ridging will prevail today. Expect highs this afternoon between 100 and 105 across the lowest elevations. After a week of hot and dry conditions, an approaching dry cold front will result in possible extreme fire behavior this weekend. The cold front on Saturday will cause winds to increase throughout the Columbia Basin down to Central Oregon.
Another hot and dry day for southeast Oregon and southwest Idaho as subtropical high pressure centered over the southwestern states remains in control. Lower levels of the atmosphere are a little warmer than 24 hours ago which will result in afternoon temperatures being a degree or two higher today. Scattered thunderstorms in the higher terrain south of the Snake River Plain, and southeast Oregon south of a Burns-Jordan Valley line.
The high has shifted a bit further northwest than yesterday which has developed more west to northwest flow today than yesterday.
The daytime heating combined with the low-level convergence and weak upper-level trough across the region will allow for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms. 70/DD (Issued 305 AM CDT FRI JUL 29 2016) An upper level trough extended southward across the MS Valley region, while an upper ridge remained over the desert SW and the subtropical ridge was situated just off the coast of FL. An area of scattered showers, with embedded thunderstorms, has been ongoing to our north, in response to a weak disturbance moving east around the base of the upper trough. Temperatures as of 08Z were in the lower 70s, and may drop a degree or two through the remainder of the overnight period. Additionally, patchy fog was beginning develop due to the abundance of moisture, and despite the low clouds over the area.
A muggy start to the day with 8 am temperatures in the lower 80s most locations. The threat of gusty winds greater than 45 mph will come from precipitation loading within the storms (K Index was 35) and a wedge of slightly drier air rotating northward around the upper level ridge. A strong U/L ridge over the Florida peninsula will begin to slide east of the region with the ridge axis remaining across the forecast area.
(Issued 305 AM CDT FRI JUL 29 2016) An upper level trough extended southward across the MS Valley region, while an upper ridge remained over the desert SW and the subtropical ridge was situated just off the coast of FL. An area of scattered showers, with embedded thunderstorms, has been ongoing to our north, in response to a weak disturbance moving east around the base of the upper trough. Temperatures as of 08Z were in the lower 70s, and may drop a degree or two through the remainder of the overnight period. Additionally, patchy fog was beginning develop due to the abundance of moisture, and despite the low clouds over the area.
411 AM PDT FRI JUL 29 2016 High pressure aloft will result in above normal temperatures through Saturday, with night through morning low clouds and fog affecting some coastal areas.
706 AM EDT FRI JUL 29 2016 Bermuda high pressure offshore with a trough inland will persist through the weekend. High temperatures will again reach the mid/upper 90s inland, with around 90 to the lower 90s coast.
1026 AM EDT FRI JUL 29 2016 Bermuda high pressure offshore with a trough inland will persist through the weekend. High temperatures will again reach the mid/upper 90s inland, with around 90 to the lower 90s coast.
A weak and broad upper troughing pattern remains over the eastern U.
Upper level ridge axis over central Florida this afternoon will drift into northern Florida Saturday as an upper tropospheric trough moves into Cuba. Water Vapor satellite loop showed slightly drier air rotating around the upper level ridge into central Florida. Normal temperatures for this time of year range from lows in the low to mid 70s and highs in the lower 90s.
1019 AM EDT FRI JUL 29 2016 A weak cold front will push off the coast today and tonight. Low pressure tracking along the front will pass south of the Gulf of Maine early tonight. High pressure will build across the region over the weekend. Downeast zones wl be some 5-10 degrees cooler than Thur whereas locales acrs the north wl see max temps fairly similar to Thur. Wk sfc trof crossing northern Maine may spark off an isold thunder this aftn for a brief pd of time. High pressure supported by ridging over central Canada and a trough over eastern Canada will push across the area this weekend.
Temperatures look on track for 85 to 90 degrees central and west, with slightly cooler readings expected over southeast Montana this afternoon. the high country may see some convection from differential heating and local convergence by afternoon. We will see some modest ridging on Saturday in response to a sharp trough dropping down through British Columbia. Models suggest some weak impulses ahead of the main trough may fire off some convection Saturday evening over our mountains.
/issued 349 AM CDT FRI JUL 29 2016/ Early morning water vapor imagery shows an anticyclone churning over the Great Basin with the eastern extent of the ridge nosing into Texas while broad troughing was in place from the Midwest through the eastern CONUS. This frontal zone (likely sitting across the Texas Panhandle this afternoon) along with the higher terrain of New Mexico and Colorado will serve as a focus for afternoon and early evening convective development.
959 AM EDT FRI JUL 29 2016 Deep-layered high pressure is anchored off the Atlantic coast of Florida this morning. The light flow and humid surface airmass over the region are contributing factors to the high heat index values. The high will fluctuate some in strength, allowing the wind to very between east to southeast. The sounding from last evening did show a fairly high freezing level, sitting at over 16k ft.
A weak upper trough remains in place across the region with most of its influence across the northern half of Alabama. The broad upper ridge dominating the southern tier of the Conus will oscillate west and east as a few disturbances in the westerlies move by well north of the region. The general weakness in the ridge will remain near central Alabama much of the period providing conditions favorable for daily thunderstorms.
Will be a bit warmer than yesterday. Today, an h500 trough will move through the northern plains in northwest weak flow aloft.
950 AM EDT FRI JUL 29 2016 Mid level ridge extends from near the Space Coast into the Atlantic this morning with warm mid level temps near -5 C at H5 and near 9 C at H7 on the Cape and Tampa soundings.
Abundant moisture to the south of this boundary in the low levels with exceedingly little mixing has allowed for fog and stratus to perpetuate deep into the late morning hours.
High pressure is centered over southern NV/northwestern AZ today and will keep a general northwesterly mid level flow over Arizona. Moisture will be drawn northward each day, due to outflows and a trough passage well to our north that will improve streamlines. Scattered afternoon thunderstorms over the higher terrain from the Grand Canyon and Flagstaff southeast to the New Mexico border.
Early this morning, a ridge of high pressure was centered north of the Bahamas with another ridge centered over the Southwestern Conus. A closed low was over Eastern Canada with troughing extending south to the TN Valley. Meanwhile a nearly stationary surface frontal zone extends from the Mid Atlantic states to a weak wave of low pressure over Eastern OH and then extending southwest to the north of the OH River and then into the Central Plains.
1045 AM EDT FRI JUL 29 2016 Upper level ridge off the southeast coast allowing an increase in moisture for the weekend. Upper level ridge off the southeast coast with southwest flow aloft across our area. As an upper level trough digs into the MS River Valley could see weak short wave cross the Upstate this afternoon.
Expectation is still for the typical diurnal thunderstorm activity, but perhaps a little reduced in time as upper ridging starts to build. More significant impacts to precipitation potential could be in store for the weekend as the ridge continues to strengthen, but for the time being things should not change very much from the past day or two. Upper air analysis at 500mb for 00Z shows upper level ridge over the Desert SW with another ridge over the W Atlantic off the coast of the Carolinas. In between the two ridges is a weakness with slight troughing from the Great Lakes towards the Texas Gulf Coast.