Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
High pressure will be in place at the surface today with quite a bit of sunshine noted, before conditions decline by mid week. High pressure will shift east late today into Tuesday which will provide a return to south/southeasterly winds and moisture will begin to return to the state.
Much warmer temperatures in the 60s will be realized, with a net increase in 850 mb temperatures of about +7C over yesterday. 00z NAM/ECMWF develop a 1007 mb leeside surface cyclone in Baca county Colorado this afternoon, which will tighten the pressure gradient across SW KS substantially. Monday night into Tuesday, the West Coast trough closes off into an upper low over southern California.
241 AM EST Mon Feb 26 2018 High pressure will build across the region over the next few days, bringing dry weather and mild temperatures. Highs will generally range in the middle 40s to around 50 in the normally warmer valleys. Westerly wind will gust this afternoon to around 20 mph making it feel a bit cooler. Sprawling high pressure at the surface, and zonal flow aloft, will characterize the prevailing pattern during the early part of the week.
Weak high pressure moves across the region tonight into Monday providing dry and quiet weather. Have increased highs just slightly mainly over far northeast Iowa into southwest Wisconsin where highs should climb into the lower to mid 40s. Tuesday looks to be rather mild day across the region with warmer south/southwesterly flow in place. A weak trough moves through Tuesday night and may bring some light rain or snow to the region.
1214 AM EST Mon Feb 26 2018 Building high pressure will result in dry and mild conditions through the first part of the work week. Fries High pressure will center itself over the central Appalachians by Tuesday. Developing southwest flow behind the high Tuesday will allow a bit of warming, with some 60 degree readings reappearing near the Mason-Dixon Line.
330 AM CST Mon Feb 26 2018 (Today and Tonight) Initially west-southwest flow aloft over our area will back to the southwest, as an upper trough dives south along the California coast today and tonight with a closed low developing. Lows are expected to range from the mid 40s across the northwestern part of our area, to the lower 50s in our southern counties.
334 AM CST Mon Feb 26 2018 Much quieter weather in the short term as high pressure dominated the next couple days. Light winds under the ridge this morning could see a little variability, but will trend more southwesterly as the day goes on. This trend with the winds will keep warmer air moving into the region.
Night time microphysics RGB and fog imagery shows low clouds and fog covering much of SE Texas once the high clouds moved east.
rain showers are forecast to become more widespread again with a thunder potential across the CWA ahead of a cold front that looks to move into the region just outside this TAF period.
A weak cold front was passing south through western Kansas early this morning. Dense freezing fog has formed in some locations, especially along a corridor from Dodge City to Garden City. A dense fog advisory was in effect for freezing fog for much of southwestern Kansas; but it may not materialize in some areas. Strong southwesterly momentum will tend to cap the moist layer; but isentropic lift, strong shear and a moist layer around 1 km deep should result in drizzle development this evening, changing to freezing drizzle tonight for areas that fall below freezing. It is uncertain how much temperatures will recover today and this will have implications on whether the drizzle is freezing or not tonight. The light freezing drizzle will change to plain drizzle and end from west to east Saturday morning.
450 PM EST Fri Feb 23 2018 Record warmth occurred again today as a warm front lifted northward and sunshine broke through the clouds. On Saturday night, a strong low pressure system tracking through the Midwest will bring a definitive cold frontal passage and a band of showers, and possibly thunderstorms.
/issued 334 AM CST Fri Feb 23 2018/ An upper level trough remains over the western continental U. Low level flow is likely to remained backed across the forecast area with the upper trough still to our west. This in turn will likely keep stratus across the eastern counties through the day with temperatures struggling into the lower to mid 40s this afternoon while on the Caprock more abundant insolation should help temperatures push well into the 50s and lower 60s. The western upper trough will begin to advance eastward this afternoon then accelerate eastward overnight. Increasing lift ahead of the trough may interact with low and mid level moisture across the southeastern counties again tonight with another chance for showers/thunder.
1014 AM MST Fri Feb 23 2018 Current upper level analysis has large positively tilted trof across the western CONUS with ridging along the East Coast. Snowfall totals of 1 to 3 inches are expected across Mellette, Todd, and Tripp counties, with the higher amounts across Tripp County. Highs on Saturday will be a bit warmer, in the 20s to lower 30s.
None of the high resolution models are handling this correctly. Latest iterations of mesoscale models bring the lower stratus mainly east of KISN and into KMOT this morning.
The combination of the 700mb trough axis moving across eastern portions of Box Elder and Tooele counties and diffluence aloft is producing widespread snow over the Wasatch Front. Snow will continue through early afternoon, although the heaviest will likely occur through noon associated with the passage of the trough axis. The flow turns northwest behind this trough so areas favored by NW flow will continue to see additional snow accumulations well into this afternoon; i. Over south central valleys the jet support aloft has moved east and now the low level flow has turn westerly. As the the cold 500mb trough moves across this afternoon there will be some isolated to scattered snow showers, but little if any additional accumulation will occur.
1117 AM MST Fri Feb 23 2018 The next in a succession of low pressure troughs was moving eastward across the Great Basin early this morning. Models shift the low pressure trough eastward over western Utah today, then over eastern Utah and western Colorado tonight. Lift associated with the approaching trough combined with steep lapse rates will result in widespread snowfall with localized thundersnow a possibility. Instability and lingering moisture in northwest flow in the wake of the trough should sustain snow showers along the divide Saturday morning and concur with holding onto WWA's until midday.
Thus, continuing the highest PoPs there looks good. As the upper trough moves father east, across the western CONUS today and tonight, rain chances will decrease, from west to east. (Saturday) The upper trough axis finally moves into the Plains on Saturday, and that system brings a weak Pacific front with it.
Late afternoon surface observations show a warm front is moving northward across south central Texas. The warm front will continue to move northward this evening and overnight as southerly flow in the low-levels increases. Precipitation chances will continue tomorrow morning across most areas as a Pacific cold front moves in from the west. For Saturday night, the cold front will push into the coastal plains, leaving rain chances only for areas east of the I-35 corridor.
So, combined with ridge and Snake River plain/eastern Magic Valley winds of 20 to 30 mph, have decided that a Winter Weather Advisory bets suits the situation. For the mountains, only exposed ridges will receive the wind, so focused more on where the snowfall would exceed 6 inches. This one should have much more snowfall, with some rain at the lower elevation possible.
126 PM MST Fri Feb 23 2018 A large upper trough stretches across the central and western CONUS, with southwest flow over the CWA. At the surface, high pressure sits over SD. Snow will begin spreading across the area tonight as the initial wave associated with the upper trough crosses the northern plains.
The Pacific Northwest will be under a weak transitory upper level ridge today. Downslope affects should limit precip in the Lower Columbia Basin and the Yakima valley.
A warm front is just southeast of Arkansas and will slowly move north through the period. On Saturday, a potent storm system in the Plains will drag a new cold front into the region.
226 PM EST Fri Feb 23 2018 High pressure over Maine early this morning will move east of Nova Scotia this afternoon. A weak area of low pressure will pass north of the region tonight. High pressure will build back into the region Saturday and Saturday night.
Central Alabama continues to be under the influence of a strong upper ridge centered off the east coast of northern Florida. The upper ridge has kept the organized convective activity to the west and north of central Alabama this week. The ridge has also produced record breaking warm temperatures. The ridge will elongate and shift slightly southward tonight, which will allow a weak impulse to track north of Alabama.
1143 AM CST Fri Feb 23 2018 High clouds streaming over top of the low clouds was limiting stratus build down effects for dense fog formation over parts of central/south central Kansas, therefore expect widespread fog to remain mostly over western Kansas. Strong isentropic lift is expected to develop in the low levels for tonight, and with moist low level airmass remaining in place this should result in widespread drizzle. Surface temperatures could drop below freezing near the I-70 corridor for tonight and Saturday morning which would result in freezing drizzle, therefore we will hoist a winter weather advisory for a few counties in central Kansas. The upper trough that has been camping out over the southwestern states for several days will finally dislodge itself and move eastward across the central plains on Saturday.
A digging trough out west will approach the Midwest tomorrow.
Stacked ridging to keep near record high temps again in many areas this afternoon in humid low level SE flow.
For tonight, a cold front will finish its trek across northern Arizona, with good chances for snow and gusty winds across Navajo and Apache counties.
Warm front has made it much of the way across South Texas, but has not quite reached I35 leaving COT still in the 50s this afternoon. Cold front approaches the area tomorrow. A pre-frontal trough is expected ahead of the front during the day and will shift winds to the northwest in western portions of the forecast area. Will again have a chance for thunderstorms with this convection as upper level impulses ride along the edge of the trough.
325 PM EST Fri Feb 23 2018 A weak area of low pressure will pass north of the region tonight. High pressure will build back into the region Saturday and Saturday night.
241 PM CST Fri Feb 23 2018 (Tonight and Saturday) Cool and moist air mass has remained locked in place today, with widespread fog and drizzle helping keep temperatures to around 40 degrees across the I-20 corridor to the lower 50s farther southwest. Next wave set to generate showers and storms late tonight into Saturday morning, ahead of a pacific cold front sliding into the area. Abundant sunshine and downslope west winds will lead to much warmer conditions, reaching near the 70 degree mark for most areas.
In the middle and upper levels(700-200 mb), latest available satelitte imagery overlaid with model streamline analysis as of 300 pm, continues to depict a sharpening longwave polar trough over the Western CONUS. Downstream of that, there is a large middle and upper ridge remaining across Central and Eastern North America, with its center positioned just east of Jacksonville FL. At the surface and in the lower to middle levels, (Surface to 700 mb), latest satellite imagery overlaid with marine and land observations and analysis as of 300 pm, details the center of 1032-1035 mb surface ridging extends from the Delmarva Peninsula east southeastward out to Bermuda. Temperatures across the islands have reached into the lower 80s with dewpoints in the upper 60s.
This semi-permanent sfc Arctic high pressure sitting over eastern Montana is more difficult to nudge than we and the models thought.
The larger western trough continues to churn eastward, still just west of the Four Corners through 21Z (3 PM). Through sunrise, Saturday, thunderstorm chances will increase, as the larger 500mb trough begins it's swing across the Rockies, with another broad area of forcing for ascent focused across north Texas into eastern Oklahoma and up onto the Ozark Plateau.
a warm front continues to slowly move northward across the region. The warm front is expected to continue a northward moving through the TAF period, however patchy fog and low ceilings are expected to return through the overnight period into early morning hours of the 24th, bringing back IFR/LIFR conditions. Strong convection will develop along a cold front and begin to move into the region after 24/15z. Light NE winds can be expected to the north of the warm front with southerly winds 5 to 10 kts south of the boundary. /issued 1103 AM CST Fri Feb 23 2018/ Warm front from near Lufkin to just s of Shreveport to near Farmerville making for a very difficult temp fcst today.
321 PM CST Fri Feb 23 2018 At 3 PM, the low pressure system that brought a wintry mix to the area was located over Lake Superior. Temperatures will fall into the teens where it snowed last night and be in the lower and mid 20s elsewhere. This will result in the precipitation being mainly in the form of rain and maybe a brief period of freezing rain at the onset during the afternoon and as the precipitation ends on Saturday night. The GFS has also trended this way too, but it is still much cooler than the NAM. Considering the tilt of this system, still thinking that going warmer in these areas is the best way to go.
246 PM CST Fri Feb 23 2018 An upper level trough is over the western conus with southwest flow over the CWA. The previously mentioned upper trough will move over the central conus on Saturday with the base of the trough moving over the CWA. Higher winds from the base of the trough will mix down toward the surface resulting in high winds across the Guadalupe Mountains where a High Wind Warning is in effect. Temperatures will be a little bit cooler across much of the area on Saturday as a Pacific front moves into the region accompanied by westerly winds.
328 PM CST Fri Feb 23 2018 An upper level trough is currently located across the southwestern U. The Trough will track east towards and through the region this weekend with additional rounds for moderate rain expected across region. An upper level disturbance ahead of the main trough is currently tracking northeast across the region this afternoon. Temperatures may actually start to warm later tonight across southern Missouri as warmer air spreads north ahead of the approaching trough. As the upper level trough spreads across the Plains on Saturday a cold front will spread east into and through the area.
Records continue to fall under the impressive ridge aloft. The upper level pattern remains rather stagnant with the ridge across the Southeastern U. The ridge will begin to flatten some as a amplified upper trough moves out of the Desert Southwest. The aforementioned front will lift northward as a warm front with another day of near record breaking heat forecast. Models indicate that the cold front will still be to the west of the Mississippi River at the end of the short-term forecast period.
1241 PM EST Fri Feb 23 2018 A nearly stationary frontal boundary will remain just south of out Pennsylvania through Saturday, before lifting north across the commonwealth as a warm front Saturday night.
1045 PM EDT Mon Aug 28 2017 A large high pressure system continue to persist across the Northeast and the Canadian Maritimes.
1142 PM CDT Mon Aug 28 2017 Benign weather pattern for the forecast area for the next several days due to strong ridge located over 4 corners next several days.
A dry trough of low pressure across eastern Montana has an associated band of mid level clouds tracking southeast into southwest North Dakota this evening. Dry and warm weather will continue through Tuesday afternoon and beyond as the region remains under the influence of ridging aloft. At the surface, broad low pressure will remain centered in eastern MT through Tuesday. This reflects an air mass which will be slightly warmer than that observed today. The net effect of this will be a slightly warmer day with highs in the upper 80s and lower 90s F over a more widespread area. We generally relied on the 12 UTC multi-model consensus to build the short term forecast, though we leaned on the slightly cooler edge of guidance for lows tonight given recent overnight diurnal cooling trends, and the pre-existing dry air mass.
753 PM EDT Mon Aug 28 2017 An upper level low will slowly rotate east across the southern Great Lakes tonight into Tuesday night, which will continue the threat for showers and thunderstorms. The center of a closed upper level low over northern Illinois will rotate slowly east toward far srn Michigan/far nrn Indiana tonight. Have added some patchy fog to the forecast as models hint at a moistening of the low levels. Lows will mostly be in the lower 60s. The center of the upper level low is forecast to rotate slowly east across the southern Great Lakes Tuesday into Tuesday night. Precipitation threat will wane during Tuesday evening with the loss of heating and with the upper level low rotating away from the region. Lows Tuesday night will range from the upper 50s to the lower 60s.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 65 86 70 84 / 10 10 20 60 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 62 83 65 82 / 10 10 10 40 Oak Ridge, TN 63 84 65 83 / 10 10 10 40 Tri Cities Airport, TN 59 79 61 81 / 10 10 20 30.
The COL region is a product of the developing low east of the South Carolina coast, TS Harvey to the west, and a low level ridge drifting northward.
700 PM CDT Mon Aug 28 2017 A weak cold front will slowly move southeast through the region tonight. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible through this evening along and ahead of the boundary with the aid of a series of vort maxes rotating through the area around the low pressure currently over the Great Lakes region. High pressure will build into the area Tuesday morning. By the end of the week, the remnants of Tropical Storm Harvey are forecast to have lifted northeastward out of Texas, but there remains a fair amount of model variability regarding how far northeastward, how quickly, and the degree of interaction (if any) between it and a trough axis moving out of Canada.
900 PM EDT Mon Aug 28 2017 Quiet weather will prevail through Monday as high pressure controls the weather.
High pressure aloft will remain across the Great Basin early this week, allowing for very warm and generally dry conditions. High pressure remains centered over southwest Utah near the Nevada border this evening. This is expected to result in greater coverage of showers, although most will be limited to the higher terrain and the western valleys.
413 PM PDT Mon Aug 28 2017 A strong ridge of high pressure centered over the Great Basin will bring near record heat to much of the central California interior through Tuesday.
846 PM MDT Mon Aug 28 2017 Hot and dry with areas of smoke will continue tonight and tomorrow, as we remain underneath strong ridging aloft. Strong high pressure over the region today with persistent hot and dry conditions. Areas of smoke from western wildfires seemed to be collecting across our CWA which may shave a few degrees off the highs today.
1023 PM EDT Mon Aug 28 2017 Deep low pressure continues to sit over the Great Lakes region late this evening. Some thunderstorms now at this hour in south- central Wisconsin and down into northern Illinois under the upper low/cold pool aloft. Upper low will slowly migrate across southern lower Michigan tonight and across southern lower Michigan on Tuesday.
625 PM CDT Mon Aug 28 2017 This morning, an upper level low pressure system was situated over southern Wisconsin. This upper level low will rotate southeast and then east over the next 24 hours, reaching Lake Huron/Erie by Tuesday afternoon. Today, most of the moisture is mid level, but with time, the lower levels really moisten up.
Vertically stacked low pressure system centered over northern IL/southern WI this afternoon evident on visible satellite imagery with its cloud shield extending west of MSP, with sunny skies west of a line from St. The western ridge retreats during the middle of the week and allows northwest flow to develop for the weekend.
Potential Tropical Cyclone per NHC located 35 miles south-southeast of Charleston SC moving northeast tonight. Lows tonight mainly in the lower 70s. MVFR and IFR cigs expected through much of the night with some improvement possible 09z-12z with occasional VFR cigs as drier air filters into the area in the low levels.
1126 PM CDT Mon Aug 28 2017 WV imagery this afternoon was revealing a large upper level high pressure dome situated over the western half of the CONUS. upper low pressure was centered just south of the western Great Lakes and embedded in a longwave trof extending southward to the southeastern states. high pressure was in control across the central Plains.
703 PM EDT Mon Aug 28 2017 Low pressure will move slowly east across the Midwest tonight and Tuesday causing scattered showers and a few thunderstorms.
1141 PM CDT Mon Aug 28 2017 An upper level low pressure system will track into Great Lakes region tonight while an associated front trailing into far south central Missouri sags southward. As we head through the remainder of the week the upper level low over the Great Lakes will exit off to the east while upper level ridges remain positioned off the southeast U. In between the remnants to Harvey which will meander northward and northeastward around the southeastern ridge.
Overnight temperatures will be cooler, with clear skies and lighter winds. 04 West central Texas will remain on the eastern periphery of an expansive ridge of high pressure over the western U.
1032 PM CDT Mon Aug 28 2017 A few isolated weak, transient storms have developed along an instability axis and near the midlevel trough axis associated with a deep upper low currently evident over southern WI. This elevated boundary will continue to drift south but will also pull eastward as the upper low departs to the east, focusing any additional pop-up storms mainly along the southeastern boundary of the forecast area.
521 PM MDT Mon Aug 28 2017 A broad upper ridge covers the western 2/3 of the country, with a low over the Great Lakes region. The ridge will keep weather mostly dry for the next couple days.
1026 PM EDT Mon Aug 28 2017 An area of low pressure off the Southeast Coast will strengthen and lift northeastward through tonight. It will also be breezy through tonight because of the gradient between the pressure ridge along the Appalachians and the offshore low. Low pressure off the SC coast this evening remains unorganized and unnamed as it lifts northeastward through the night. Regional radar showing a significant diminishing of the precipitation over the forecast area with the higher intensity rain shifting northeastward as the system lifts northeastward. Strong upper ridge will remain entrenched over the Four Corners region.
530 PM MDT Mon Aug 28 2017 A 594dm high pressure center is centered over southwest Utah early this afternoon with northerly flow aloft over the area. This high pressure center will remain nearly stationary through the period. Low temperatures tonight in the low to mid 50s which is a few degrees below normal. With the CWA remaining downstream of a highly amplified upper level ridge, this period should be dry and warm.
730 PM EDT Mon Aug 28 2017 Quiet weather will prevail through Monday as high pressure controls the weather.
A broad H5 ridge stretching across the PACNW and most of the Northern Plains will persist through the early week period, with quite warm and dry air continuing to build into the western Dakotas while somewhat cool and moist air dips through western Ontario into eastern Minnesota.