Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Overall tranquil weather in store for the next 2 days as high pressure will be centered of Alabama today and then will slide into Georgia by Tuesday morning. There may be a brief window in the southwest during the peak heating hours for an isolated shower to develop as southerly flow begins to increase on the backside of the high pressure.
242 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2020 Large dome of high pressure continues to settle ewd into the mid TN Valley this Mon afternoon, as current temps climb into the mid/upper 60s range. All of this occurs in advance of potent area of low pressure out of the nrn Plains translating ewd across the Great Lakes Tue night into Wed. The attendant cold front stretches swd into the lower MS Valley and looks to sweep thru the cntrl TN Valley during the day Wed. The cold front should exit the area to the east by the onset of the evening hrs Wed, with rainfall quickly tapering off. Slightly cooler/drier wx conditions are then xpcted in the wake of the frontal passage heading into Wed night, as lows fall to near 50F, under clearing skies.
Another mild night is on the way in advance of a warmer day Tuesday with highs expected into the lower to mid 90s for the Rolling Plains and southern and central South Plains. A cold front will be moving south through the area during the afternoon, with fairly decent northerly flow to follow. Some solutions also generate isolated thunderstorms near a cold front and dryline intersection that may be in the southern Rolling Plains. Tomorrow evening the upper ridge over the area will edge slightly back westward as an upper level low to our northeast digs southeastward.
Warmer temps will also move in on Tuesday, with highs in many areas getting near 80 degrees.
1259 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2020 Quiet weather will continue through early Monday afternoon as weak upper level ridging moves across the Great Plains. A developing low pressure system over South Dakota will drag a cold front across Nebraska. This in combination with slightly cooler air filtering in behind the front will keep high temperatures in the mid 60s to low 70s north of Highway 2. Temperatures are expected to rise into the low to mid 70s south of Highway 2.
In addition, compressional heating ahead of an approaching cold front will result in unusually hot temperatures, especially across the western half of the area. Highs will range from the mid 90s to near 100 degrees across the western half of the area, to the low 90s across our eastern counties. (Tuesday Night through Monday) Thunderstorms will be possible primarily east of a Haskell to Mason line Tuesday evening in advance of a surface cold front that will move through overnight. Models show most of the storm development just east of the area and given the uncertainty, will keep POPs on the low side tomorrow evening/overnight.
Should see highs up into the upper 70s(F) to the lower 80s(F) Tuesday. A cold front will move through the area on Tuesday.
SHORT TERM (Tonight through Tuesday Night): High pressure remains in control this afternoon, supporting moderate to breezy southeast winds and scattered to broken low level cumulus cloud streets. Low clouds will mix out Tuesday morning and breezy to windy conditions will develop across the southeast corner of the lower RGV, including Brownsville and Harlingen, and to a slightly lesser extent, McAllen.
The main forcing with this feature won't arrive until after 7 PM Tuesday, as a cold front pivots southeastward across MO/IL and into our area Tuesday night.
The pattern this afternoon is highlighted by nw flow aloft and drier high pressure at the surface. Winds on Tuesday will increase slightly and back sly as high pressure shifts east and low pressure approaches from the west.
Dewpoints in the low 60s will move into the region overnight from the SW and eventually into the mid to upper 60s areawide by tomorrow resulting in humid conditions.
An area of low pressure moving into northwest Illinois by Tuesday evening will result in thunderstorms developing in west central Illinois, and eventually spreading into the rest of central and then eastern Illinois by late evening.
410 PM EDT Mon Apr 27 2020 High pressure will ease east tonight and a warm front will become the focus for showers to move across the region tonight. Low pressure will reach the western Great Lakes Tuesday night and lift the the frontal boundary north as a warm front.
For Tuesday night, the activity will begin to wane and move off to the east as upper trof digs toward the Mississippi River valley. Temperatures will be cooler on Tuesday given the expected cloud cover and pcpn.
The result is a very dry, cooler north wind through the day. High pressure slides off to the northeast of us by tomorrow. This will shift winds out of the east and cutting off our cooler/drier airmass.
The dryline will move into the central and eastern Permian Basin south to the lower Trans Pecos by mid to late afternoon as westerly flow aloft continues. A weak disturbance combined with intense heating along the dryline, with help from the higher terrain, should break the cap and generate a few late day thunderstorms just east of the Davis Mountains in the lower Trans Pecos region of west Texas.
At the surface, a weak cold front is pushing south through the northwestern Panhandles as of 07z. Mid level temperatures in progged soundings have trended warmer, even in the GFS, which had been more aggressive with precipitation for the past several days of runs. For Tuesday, northern stream wave pushes a cold front south through the Panhandles during the afternoon.
Overall tranquil weather in store for the next 2 days as high pressure will be centered over Alabama today and then will slide into Georgia by Tuesday morning. There may be a brief window in the southwest during the peak heating hours for an isolated shower to develop as southerly flow begins to increase on the backside of the high pressure.
There is even some suggestion that a closed low could develop over IA by midnight Tuesday night. That front was washing out as low pressure was intensifying near the WY/SD border. On Tuesday, the upper level system moving into the region will help force a cold front through the local area.
Onshore flow and a passing trough will continue to contribute to shower activity across W Washington today.
410 PM EDT Mon Apr 27 2020 High pressure has led to a seasonably cool day across eastern Kentucky as temperatures have climbed into the low-mid 60s. Will see any light rain push northeast in association with the warm front/lift by mid- late Tuesday morning as temperatures warm into the low-mid 70s during the afternoon.
As high pressure slides eastward, winds will veer to the southeast for Tuesday morning. High pressure will continue to build over the area with mostly clear skies and low humidity. Lows tonight will be in the lower 50s inland and around 60 near the coast.
Incoming Pacific cold front currently bringing scattered light rain showers to eastern Oregon and western-most Idaho this morning.
335 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2020 Currently, weak high pressure exists across the region with the center of the high in north-central ND. Indications persist for a decent ridge to build over the region for Thu and Fri with temps climbing through the 60s to near 70 Thu and exceeding 70 degrees most places for Fri. On Fri the next boundary approaches, with the main area of low pressure positioned well north in Manitoba province. Only isolated thunderstorms are expected tonight, with scattered thunderstorms possible during the day on Tuesday as a low pressure system moves through the region.
Mostly sunny and mild conditions will continue on Tuesday with temperatures a few degrees warmer. Highs will reach the upper 70s coast to the lower 80s inland.
1238 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2020 A few morning showers will move across the region, but then we'll see mostly clear skies the rest of the day as high pressure builds in from the west. The warmer temperatures, combined with dewpoints in the 30s will lead to low afternoon humidity as well.
Clear skies, light winds and a very dry airmass will again allow for ideal radiational cooling with lows in the low to mid 50s across much of the area. The high moves east on Tuesday with a light southerly flow developing, allowing moisture to begin to return to the area. Temperatures will also warm, with highs in the low to mid 80s inland to mid and upper 70s along the coast.
The first occurs along the Buffalo Ridge where subtle upslope from northeast winds could allow for isolated 1. Upper flow flattens some early in the period, with some ridging into the weekend.
Mainly zonal upper level flow today will give way to ridging tomorrow, allowing temperatures to rise around 5 to 15 degrees warmer today. Onshore flow returns tomorrow night as the ridge axis begins moving east.
The low level warm advection along with cloud cover will keep temperatures in the 50s to low 60s tonight. SFC based CAPES will reach the 2000-3000 J/KG ahead of the frontal zone as dew points climb into the low to mid 60s and temperatures reach the mid 70s. We can't rule out tornadoes either, especially if a low pressure area can develop along the frontal zone as some of the models are showing.
CDG Chattanooga Airport, TN 50 77 57 71 50 / 0 0 30 90 20 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 48 75 57 69 50 / 0 0 20 90 40 Oak Ridge, TN 48 74 56 68 50 / 0 0 30 90 40 Tri Cities Airport, TN 43 72 53 70 48 / 10 10 10 90 70.
A cold front is expected to enter far northwestern Oklahoma by mid morning Tuesday and move southward to near Stillwater-OKC-Lawton by mid afternoon (3- 4 pm). Overall, near surface winds will likely be veered some ahead of the cold front which will limit the risk of tornadoes.
149 PM MDT Mon Apr 27 2020 Upper level analysis shows a weak ridge over the northern plains, with a wave pushing in from the northwest. Initial impulse and associated cold front will spark some showers and perhaps a few isolated thunderstorms this evening, as well as some gusty winds behind the front. Behind the cold front, strong northwesterly winds are expected on Tuesday. As the departing upper wave transitions into a longwave trough, strong upper ridging will build over the western CONUS.
Strong pressure gradient on the backside of the trough will lead to gusty winds throughout the day on Monday.
140 PM EDT Mon Apr 27 2020 High pressure builds into the area today. Warmer into the weekend. Any lingering precipitation should taper off by morning as the low pressure system continues its eastward retreat. During the day today, heights increase as an upper level ridge moves overhead and high pressure begins to build into the area. Tonight, heights begin to fall and clouds build back in as a warm front approaches. Seasonable temperatures are forecast overnight with lows of 30s in the mountains and 40s in the lowlands. Warm front lingers along the northern tier of counties Tuesday/Tuesday night before lifting north ahead of the cold front.
Overall not much going on in the short term as mildly tilted northwest flow in the mid-levels starts to become more tilted as ridging strengthens over the western half of the CONUS.
Lows will be in the 50s and highs Tuesday in the low/mid 80s.
Damaging winds would also be possible given some drier air in the lower levels resulting in higher DCAPE values. After the initial cold front, a secondary vorticity maximum will drop into the area Tuesday night, driving a secondary cold front southeast again.
As the high moves east on Tuesday, SSW winds will increase with some gusts around 17KT by 15Z.
Should see highs up into the upper 70s(F) to the lower 80s(F) Tuesday.
330 PM EDT Mon Apr 27 2020 High pressure over the southeast United States will move off the coast early Tuesday.
Otherwise, expect dry conditions to return to the region shortly after daybreak, with highs forecast to climb into the low 70s.
A cold front ran south from the low across northwest Iowa and into Nebraska. The threat for severe weather associated with the low and cold front coming through Tuesday afternoon/evening was discussed in the short term section of this discussion. Breezy NW to N winds will develop behind the front as cooler and drier air advects into the region and temps fall into the 40s.
High pressure will continue with winds diminishing with nightfall. High pressure will shift east, and be centered just off the coast of South Carolina by mid-morning Tue. Winds will subside as high pressure becomes oriented closer to the area.
824 PM EDT Mon Apr 27 2020 High pressure over the southeast United States will move off the coast early Tuesday.
533 PM MDT Mon Apr 27 2020 De-amplification of the robust northeast Pacific ridge is leading to a drier and warmer forecast which really began today and should continue through the forecast. We will still be on the tail end of a system moving out of the northern Rockies into the High Plains this evening. Strong ridging will be setting up across the Intermountain West to the Rockies as tonight's system carves out a trough in the eastern CONUS and heights lower off the Pacific Coast.
Cooler air has continued to spread across the Keys today in wake of last nights weak cold front passage. Day time highs were in the lower to mid 80s with dew points way down in the lower 60s. High pressure spreading southeastward off the southeastern United States will result in freshening northeast to east breezes overnight.
Currently, weak high pressure exists across the region with the center of the high in north-central ND. Indications persist for a decent ridge to build over the region for Thu and Fri with temps climbing through the 60s to near 70 Thu and exceeding 70 degrees most places for Fri. On Fri the next boundary approaches, with the main area of low pressure positioned well north in Manitoba province.
638 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2020 VFR generally expected next 24 hours though there is a small window that some MVFR clouds may develop during the 28/12Z-28/18Z timeframe as a cold front moves through the area. Another mild night is on the way in advance of a warmer day Tuesday with highs expected into the lower to mid 90s for the Rolling Plains and southern and central South Plains. A cold front will be moving south through the area during the afternoon, with fairly decent northerly flow to follow. Some solutions also generate isolated thunderstorms near a cold front and dryline intersection that may be in the southern Rolling Plains. Tomorrow evening the upper ridge over the area will edge slightly back westward as an upper level low to our northeast digs southeastward.
610 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2020 00Z TAF issuance Storms are moving across the Lower Trans Pecos as well as the eastern Permian Basin this evening. The dryline will move into the central and eastern Permian Basin south to the lower Trans Pecos by mid to late afternoon as westerly flow aloft continues. A weak disturbance combined with intense heating along the dryline, with help from the higher terrain, should break the cap and generate a few late day thunderstorms just east of the Davis Mountains in the lower Trans Pecos region of west Texas.
648 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2020 For the 00Z TAFs, a cold front will move across the TAF sites very late tonight into Tuesday morning accompanied by gusty north winds in its wake. Overall not much going on in the short term as mildly tilted northwest flow in the mid-levels starts to become more tilted as ridging strengthens over the western half of the CONUS.
Otherwise, high pressure will strengthen for the middle of the week, with record high temperatures possible. Utah remains under a west-northwesterly flow aloft this evening an an upstream ridge over the West Coast begins to amplify. This second trough will further reinforce the cold front, temporarily halting the warming trend tomorrow.
This will bring slightly cooler temperatures to the region and breezy conditions for most of the area. Winds will increase over the higher elevations during the morning hours with gusting up to 35 mph possible across the plains by the afternoon. Expect temperatures to top out in the lower 70s for tomorrow. A weak upper trough will move across the CWA tonight. The low level wind and pressure fields have show downsloping winds overnight and on Tuesday for all the plains and foothills. For temperatures, the weak trough brings in cooler air on Tuesday. Highs will be 1-4 C cooler than this afternoon's readings. We'll be warming and dry as a ridge moves over the Rockies through the middle of the week.
A weak upper trough will move across the CWA tonight. The low level wind and pressure fields have show downsloping winds overnight and on Tuesday for all the plains and foothills. For temperatures, the weak trough brings in cooler air on Tuesday. Highs will be 1-4 C cooler than this afternoon's readings. We'll be warming and dry as a ridge moves over the Rockies through the middle of the week.
309 PM MDT Mon Apr 27 2020 De-amplification of the robust northeast Pacific ridge is leading to a drier and warmer forecast which really began today and should continue through the forecast. We will still be on the tail end of a system moving out of the northern Rockies into the High Plains this evening. Strong ridging will be setting up across the Intermountain West to the Rockies as tonight's system carves out a trough in the eastern CONUS and heights lower off the Pacific Coast.
/issued 638 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2020/ VFR generally expected next 24 hours though there is a small window that some MVFR clouds may develop during the 28/12Z-28/18Z timeframe as a cold front moves through the area. Another mild night is on the way in advance of a warmer day Tuesday with highs expected into the lower to mid 90s for the Rolling Plains and southern and central South Plains. A cold front will be moving south through the area during the afternoon, with fairly decent northerly flow to follow. Some solutions also generate isolated thunderstorms near a cold front and dryline intersection that may be in the southern Rolling Plains. Tomorrow evening the upper ridge over the area will edge slightly back westward as an upper level low to our northeast digs southeastward.
509 PM MDT Mon Apr 27 2020 Upper level analysis shows a weak ridge over the northern plains, with a wave pushing in from the northwest. Initial impulse and associated cold front will spark some showers and perhaps a few isolated thunderstorms this evening, as well as some gusty winds behind the front. Behind the cold front, strong northwesterly winds are expected on Tuesday. As the departing upper wave transitions into a longwave trough, strong upper ridging will build over the western CONUS.
Moisture return will continue through tonight into tomorrow as the high pressure slides farther east and the system over the Plains deepens. Better chances will hold off until tomorrow evening as a cold front begins to approach. Ahead of this front, expect high temperatures to be a few degrees warmer than today - upper 70s to lower 80s. /NF/ Showers and thunderstorms will be increasing in coverage across the region Tuesday night as a cold front approaches from the west.
1052 PM EDT Mon Apr 27 2020 High pressure over the southeast United States will move off the coast early Tuesday.
Dewpoint values were in the mid 40s to the lower 50s across the forecast area.
Increasing SFC dewpoints and low cloud cover overnight will result in much warmer temperatures, with a healthy gradient between upper 60s/lower 70s across coastal SE TX to mid/upper 50s over E Central LA. Return flow developing FRI will begin a warming trend, which will continue through the weekend as ridging aloft builds overhead.
Expect VFR conditions to persist overnight until a warm front lifts north during the morning hrs on Tue. Some low clouds and DZ could be seen along this warm front as moisture lifts north over the area. The more organized TSRA will hold off until late in the period across the NRN terminals as a cold front drops SE into the state.
/issued 252 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2020/ SHORT TERM (Tonight through Tuesday Night): High pressure remains in control this afternoon, supporting moderate to breezy southeast winds and scattered to broken low level cumulus cloud streets. Low clouds will mix out Tuesday morning and breezy to windy conditions will develop across the southeast corner of the lower RGV, including Brownsville and Harlingen, and to a slightly lesser extent, McAllen.
As a result, we would not be surprised to hear some rumbles of thunder in parts of the area this afternoon into this evening as the trof passes through.
Relative humidity values will remain in the low to mid-teens in areas along and west of Highway 27. A cold front will also swing south into the region. Relative humidity values will range from the mid-teens to the low 20s across the region. Wed-Wed night: NNW flow aloft will prevail, on the eastern periphery of an amplifying upper level ridge over the Intermountain West/Rockies -- and the western periphery of an amplifying upper level low invof the Great Lakes. Thu-Fri: The ridge aloft will progress east from the Intermountain West/Rockies across the Central Plains in this period. Sat-Tue: Long range guidance suggests that flow aloft will back to the SW as an upper level trough moves ashore the Pacific Coast and the aforementioned ridge progresses east across the Mississippi River Valley.
Even the HRRR (which is usually on the higher end of QPF) only has a trace through Tuesday morning.
904 PM EDT Mon Apr 27 2020 High pressure building directly over the region tonight along with clear skies, near calm winds and dry airmass in place will set the stage for good radiational cooling conds. On Tuesday, High pressure will slide offshore and surface flow will become Southeast at 10-15 mph with gusts to 20-25 mph at the beaches during the afternoon hours. This milder SE flow will push temps back closer to seasonable late April values with Highs in the lower/middle 80s inland and mid/upper 70s at the coastal areas. Mostly sunny and mild conditions will continue on Tuesday with temperatures a few degrees warmer. Highs will reach the upper 70s coast to the lower 80s inland.
808 PM EDT Mon Apr 27 2020 High pressure over the southeast United States will move off the coast early Tuesday.
As a result, overnight low temperatures will be 10-15 degrees warmer than last night, bottoming out in the low to mid 50s. All of this occurs in advance of potent area of low pressure out of the nrn Plains translating ewd across the Great Lakes Tue night into Wed. The attendant cold front stretches swd into the lower MS Valley and looks to sweep thru the cntrl TN Valley during the day Wed. The cold front should exit the area to the east by the onset of the evening hrs Wed, with rainfall quickly tapering off. Slightly cooler/drier wx conditions are then xpcted in the wake of the frontal passage heading into Wed night, as lows fall to near 50F, under clearing skies.
Tuesday, strong northwest winds will occur picking up as early 3 to 4 AM behind the passage of a cold front.
Large dome of high pressure continues to settle ewd into the mid TN Valley this Mon afternoon, as current temps climb into the mid/upper 60s range. All of this occurs in advance of potent area of low pressure out of the nrn Plains translating ewd across the Great Lakes Tue night into Wed. The attendant cold front stretches swd into the lower MS Valley and looks to sweep thru the cntrl TN Valley during the day Wed. The cold front should exit the area to the east by the onset of the evening hrs Wed, with rainfall quickly tapering off. Slightly cooler/drier wx conditions are then xpcted in the wake of the frontal passage heading into Wed night, as lows fall to near 50F, under clearing skies.
723 PM EDT Mon Apr 27 2020 High pressure will remain across the region Tuesday with mostly sunny skies and warmer temperatures.