Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
403 PM EDT Mon Oct 9 2017 WV imagery and RAP analysis indicated a sw flow aloft across the Upper Great Lakes between a broad ridge centered over the western Atlantic and a trough from Hudson Bay through the nrn plains into the cntrl Rockies. At the surface, Northerly anticyclonic flow prevailed over the nrn Great Lakes as high pressure over the plains builds toward the area. stronger CAA into the west has kept temps in the lower 50s while readings had climbed to around 60 to the lower 60s over the rest of the cwa. Tuesday, High pressure will continue to build into the area bringing another mostly sunny day. However, with 850 mb temps near 0C, temps will remain in the lower to mid 50s.
1112 AM MDT Mon Oct 9 2017 Morning water vapor loop showed the upper low just east of the Four Corners, with a trowal signature over west-central CO. Upper trough is still amplifying into northeast Utah with upper level divergence and large scale ascent producing widespread precip over the CWA. With the snow cover on the ground over portions of the area and 700 mb temps around -8C, highs will struggle to get out of the low 40s, a good 25 degrees below normal.
19z regional analysis reveals an elongated ridge of high pressure in the mid and upper levels extending from the eastern Gulf into the western Atlantic off of the Mid Atlantic Coast. Anticyclonic flow around this high is responsible for the advection of subtle vort maxes around the southern and western periphery into the Southeastern US. In the lower levels. subtle troughing stemming from the remnant low of Nate /currently moving into New England/ along with steady advection of a tropical/ Gulf moisture-rich southerly flow around the Bermuda sfc anticyclone will promote weak convergence and humid conditions. mid/upper ridge will retrograde slightly west into the Southeast. next cold front will be approaching the area from the west.
158 PM EDT Mon Oct 9 2017 The remnant low pressure center of Hurricane Nate will pull away to the northeast today. A low pressure system will bring another chance of rain to the region for the middle part of the week. High pressure to build across the region tonight. The 00Z models are slower in bringing pcpn back into the region along a warm front, therefore dropped PoPs on Tuesday to slight chance in the south and keep the ne dry.
This will keep temperatures a tad cooler at places like Jamestown in the James river valley where have lowered max temperatures to the upper 40s. Northern ND experienced a brief period of near freezing temperatures early last evening, but temperatures have risen into the mid 30s. To the south of these clouds temperatures dropped well below freezing, especially across the southwest, and currently remain below freezing. Will continue the freeze warning with some areas still well below freezing. But in the north, temperatures will likely not drop below freezing, expect maybe in the far west of clearing makes it from NE MT into NW ND.
306 PM EDT Mon Oct 9 2017 A cold front will combine with moisture from the remnants of Nate to bring showers to the area into this evening.
This front will move north and back into the area tonight and Tuesday as a warm front. Weak impulses riding along this boundary within southwest flow aloft will bring this boundary back into the area as a warm front overnight into Tuesday. As the warm front lifts north, it will glide over this ridge creating rain, low clouds and fog tonight. Environment becomes tropical with the passing of the warm front tonight and Tuesday with PWATS ranging from 1. Given that this is a warm front with extensive amounts of cloudiness, instabilities may not be realized for thunderstorms activity. Tuesday night low pressure will be over Illinois with front stalled from the low across Kentucky and Virginia.
1125 AM PDT Mon Oct 9 2017 Drier weather will linger over the area into Tuesday as a ridge of high pressure remains in place.
East flow will keep the Atlantic coast warm and muggy in the low 80s, with mid- upper 70s elsewhere.
A cold front near the Pecos River will pick up speed this evening as gusty, northerly winds increase to 20-25kt sustained, and gusts of 35kt or greater will be possible at all area terminals. WV shows the upper trough over SW CO/NW NM at 18, but the cold front ended up a little faster than previously advertised, and fropa'd KMAF right at 17Z, w/little fanfare other than establishing the high temp for the day. The cold front will slow due to diurnal heating this afternoon somewhere invof the Pecos River, then pick up speed after sunset. Model temp progs suggest nrn Lea will stay well-abv freezing, w/post-frontal winds to keep things mixed.
352 PM EDT Mon Oct 9 2017 High pressure will nose in from the Upper Great Lakes tonight.
A broad upper ridge will continue building into Montana tonight while a trough carves out off the Pacific NW coast. But with the flow at al levels being westerly, it will work to bring in warmer air into NE Montana as moisture and dynamics stay well to our north. With enough sunshince, temperatures across the CWA should warm into the low to mid 60s.
300 PM CDT Mon Oct 9 2017 High pressure is currently centered over the high plains of WY/SD/NE with a ridge extending northeast through central ND. This ridge of high pressure will drift southeast and extend from Fergus Falls to Bemidji by midnight. The cumulus clouds across the region currently are expected to dissipate quickly late this afternoon and this evening with loss of daytime heating and the high moving southeastward across the Red River Valley. but with the clear skies and deep cool air, temps should still drop below freezing across the entire area. Winds will increase from the south-southwest, while low pressure gets organized in the lee of the Rockies.
A weather system passing north of the area will bring gusty winds along with cooler daytime temperatures today and Tuesday. High pressure will then slowly push temperatures back well above average later in the week. Cooler temperatures today and tomorrow as a function of the system as well.
212 PM EDT Mon Oct 9 2017 Ridge of high pressure developing over the area will keep southerly flow and chances of showers and thunderstorms in place through the middle of the week.
1119 AM MDT Mon Oct 9 2017 Upper level analysis has a positively tilted upper trof over the central Rockies and northern Plains, with ridging building into the Pacific Northwest. At the surface, high pressure has settled across the northern Rockies and into the northern Plains. Upper level trof will continue to shift east of the area this morning, with light rain and rain mixed with snow coming to an end across south central SD. With Tripp county not seeing freezing temperatures yet this Fall, a freeze warning has been issued for tonight into Tuesday morning. Upper ridging will take place for mid week, with southwest flow aloft taking over for the latter part of the week.
411 PM CDT Mon Oct 9 2017 Tonight through Monday: Much warmer and humid than normal with a good chance of rain across most of the area. Water vapor imagery/RAP analysis showed the circulation around an upper level low just east of the Four Corners Region. As this system continues northeast to the Great Lakes region by evening, the associated cold front will drop into our northwest most zones by late Tuesday afternoon. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop ahead of the cold front Tuesday. Otherwise, warmer than normal temperatures will continue. Tuesday morning lows will be near record warm lows again and be in the lower 70s.
Post-tropical cyclone Nate is now located over New York State. A more uniform southerly flow is now in place between developing low pressure over Oklahoma and a Bermuda high over the Atlantic. Strengthening southerly flow ahead of the pre-frontal trough will result in an increase in rain chances in the northwest counties prior to sunrise. Global models are quicker than the CAMs in pushing the pre- frontal trough eastward on Tuesday, and will go with a compromise solution weighted towards the CAMs.
130 PM EDT Mon Oct 9 2017 Aviation High pressure will bring fair weather and temperatures in the 70s today.
The temperature drop will be limited in many areas by the amount of water and wet snow sitting around, with quite a bit of energy going into freezing the liquid. It may be a little cooler in low lying spots with good snow cover like Boulder, Fort Collins, and Greeley. Though skies will be clear Tuesday night, minimum temperatures won't be quite so cold as tonight due to warmer temperatures during the daytime, as well as a surface lee trough forming.
Winds will become elevated and gusty out of the north as a cold front moves into the area this afternoon. /issued 348 AM CDT Mon Oct 9 2017/ Much of the region will see another very warm day ahead of a strong cold front that will arrive late this afternoon. An upper trough continues to dig over the Rockies as a strong cold front enters the TX Panhandle early this morning. Strong daytime heating along with pressure falls ahead of the upper trough will hold the front up over the northern Permian Basin for a few hours. The front will get a renewed push this evening as the upper trough pivots northeast across the TX/OK Panhandles. Latest guidance is indicating temperatures just above freezing across northern Lea County by morning.
311 PM EDT Mon Oct 9 2017 A front slowly crosses midweek, then dry and warm high pressure dominates last half of the week.
With such high dewpoints, overnight lows will remain muggy, generally only reaching the low to mid 70s, except a few upper 70s along the coast.
A cold front will sweep across the area late tonight through early Tuesday morning.
237 PM EDT Mon Oct 9 2017 Moisture with the remnants of Nate will continue to shift off to the east as high pressure builds overhead. Tuesday should be mostly dry with high pressure in place but clouds will start to spread northward ahead of the next low pressure system, ejecting out of the midwest. This aforementioned low will track across northern Ohio, with the warm front providing for increased rain chances overnight Tuesday. It appears both downsloping southeasterly wind and a dry slot may be limiting factors for QPF outside of the initial warm front surge, but will still maintain likely PoPs, even with low QPF forecast.
300 PM CDT Mon Oct 9 2017 (Tonight and Tuesday) A cold front will continue to move south across the area this afternoon and through the evening hours. (Tuesday) The cold front will be clear of the area and the cold air and continued CAA will allow for below normal highs tomorrow. Highs will be in the low to mid 60s. Clear skies and light winds will allow for strong radiational cooling and overnight lows will drop into the low 40s.
225 PM CDT Mon Oct 9 2017 Warm front approaching from south/west will lead to an increase in clouds and rain chances overnight. With approach of cold front during heat of day Tuesday, storm chances peak, with SPC still outlooking us in marginal risk as negatively tilted trof energy advances the cold front's passage.
The corresponding cold front is expected to move across the CWA/MSA Tuesday.
High pressure returns Tuesday with mostly sunny skies and mild temperatures. Skies will remain mostly cloudy, then thicken overnight when trapped moisture in the lower atmosphere forms a stratus layer. Skies will break up late Tuesday morning and become sunny for the afternoon hours under building high pressure. Temperatures will rise into the lower and middle-70s. Temperatures will rise into the lower and middle-70s today. Tuesday night remains dry as high pressure in the northeast moves slowly east ahead of a storm in the Plains.
304 PM MDT Mon Oct 9 2017 Upper low making slow eastward progress across near the CO/NM border this afternoon. Upper trough axis bisected the Dakotas NE to SW through southeast WY. Surface features included a ridge from eastern WY/NE panhandle southward through NW TX, and an inverted trough from a low in central NM to NW CO.
This wave of moisture is in response to an area of low pressure moving through the Central Plains and an area of high pressure situated just off the East Coast. Highs tomorrow will be in the low to mid 80s with mostly cloudy skies.
219 PM MST Mon Oct 9 2017 Breezy conditions and cooler temperatures will continue to affect the region through tonight in the wake of a cold front that moved through the area. Weak high pressure will return to the region by the middle of the week allowing high temperatures to climb several degrees above seasonal normals. Cool and dry air continues to usher into the Desert Southwest in the wake of a frontal boundary and upper trough currently moving through the southern Rockies. High pressure setting up across the Four Corners overnight will promote an early onset of the northeasterly downslope flow across central Arizona this evening.
112 PM EDT Mon Oct 9 2017 Hydro High pressure will bring fair weather and temperatures in the 70s today.
314 PM CDT Mon Oct 9 2017 Main forecast concerns center around precipitation and potential for freezing temperatures in our northern counties. Ahead of the mid-upper low, large-scale forcing for ascent will continue to increase. It may take a while to saturate in the lower levels with prevailing low-level northeast flow, but point forecast soundings indicate the better low-level moisture arrives tonight. thinking the other counties that were previously in the watch will remain warmer under cloud cover.
324 PM CDT Mon Oct 9 2017 Cooler air has pushed quickly across the forecast area today, with breezy north winds keeping highs in the 50s out west. Meanwhile as the upper trof advances eastward, precipitation chances continue under areas of deformation and broader synoptic lift as the low swings from the Rockies over eastern Kansas through mid day Tuesday. Lows tonight from the low to middle 40s only rise toward 50 on Tuesday afternoon.
Currently MVFR ceilings in place across the Texas Panhandle may develop southward after sunset as north winds help pull the low clouds south. /issued 622 AM CDT Mon Oct 9 2017/ The cold front is on the doorstep at the time of writing and should be through all terminals by 14Z. /issued 313 AM CDT Mon Oct 9 2017/ As of 3 am the strong cold front was just entering the Panhandle. A trough will move through overnight, however, winds will stay around 15-20 mph overnight which should limit cooling some. A few areas in the extreme southwestern Panhandle may get close to freezing. Temperatures will slowly warm as the high over the southeast build west over Texas.
337 PM EDT Mon Oct 9 2017 WV imagery and RAP analysis indicated a sw flow aloft across the Upper Great Lakes between a broad ridge centered over the western Atlantic and a trough from northern Manitoba into the Rockies. At the surface, a cold front extended from near James Bay into far eastern Upper Mi. Today, Weakening fgen forcing supporting area of clouds over western Upper Mi combined with high pressure building into the area and associated anticyclonic n-nw flow ahead of the high pres center should bring mostly sunny skies to much of Upper Mi and high temps ranging from the mid 50s west to the lower 60s southeast and south central.
1237 PM CDT Mon Oct 9 2017 Extensive mid level cloud cover has been persisting across the local area overnight ahead of a cold front across western Nebraska. when the main upper level low helps to push this cold front across the local area. expect the attention to turn from a blustery evening to the potential for near freezing temperatures and frost formation early Tuesday morning. opted not to issue a freeze warning and kept the watch going so the day shift can gain some more confidence on if freezing temperatures or frost will eventually be realized across the western fringes of the local forecast area.
A weather system passing north of the area will bring gusty winds along with cooler daytime temperatures again Tuesday. High pressure will then slowly push temperatures back well above average later in the week. A cooler air mass was also filtering into the region in association with this system. Afternoon temperatures were running about 4 to 8 degrees cooler than what was observed yesterday at the same time.
The low and front will continue to push eastward in the next several hours. Light rain showers may form and occur across mainly northern Oklahoma tonight, north of a Cheyenne to Perry line, closer to the mid/upper low. Kept rain chances in the 20-50% range to account for this activity with the highest chances near Buffalo, Oklahoma after midnight. Surface winds will increase in the cold air behind the cold front tonight. Much cooler air will move into the area tonight. Tuesday, much cooler conditions will occur. Skies will clear west to east as the mid/upper low moves northeastward and away from the Southern Plains.
Morning water vapor loop showed the upper low centered over southwest CO. Upper trough is still amplifying into northeast Utah with upper level divergence and large scale ascent producing widespread precip over the CWA. With the snow cover on the ground over portions of the area and 700 mb temps around -8C, highs will struggle to get out of the low 40s, a good 25 degrees below normal.
1112 AM MDT Mon Oct 9 2017 Morning water vapor loop showed the upper low centered over southwest CO, with a trowal signature over west-central CO. Upper trough is still amplifying into northeast Utah with upper level divergence and large scale ascent producing widespread precip over the CWA. With the snow cover on the ground over portions of the area and 700 mb temps around -8C, highs will struggle to get out of the low 40s, a good 25 degrees below normal.
301 PM MDT Mon Oct 9 2017 Upper low making slow eastward progress across near the CO/NM border this afternoon. Upper trough axis bisected the Dakotas NE to SW through southeast WY. Surface features included a ridge from eastern WY/NE panhandle southward through NW TX, and an inverted trough from a low in central NM to NW CO.
A ridge of high pressure will be over the region today and overnight before moving off to the east on Tuesday allowing an upper level trough to settle over the region midweek. Will see some increasing high clouds today and overnight in advance of the approaching trough. The ridge will provide a little warmer temepratures today and overnight. Winds will be light today and then some increasing southerly winds overnight ahead of the approaching trough. High pressure over the Pacific Northwest will lead to VFR conditions with just scattered to broken cirrus above 20K feet AGL for the next 24 hours.
A very dry atmosphere remains in place and this will allow for a rapid drop in overnight temperatures with readings settling into the low 50's and upper 40's at most valley locations.
631 PM EDT Mon Oct 9 2017 WV imagery and RAP analysis indicated a sw flow aloft across the Upper Great Lakes between a broad ridge centered over the western Atlantic and a trough from Hudson Bay through the nrn plains into the cntrl Rockies. At the surface, Northerly anticyclonic flow prevailed over the nrn Great Lakes as high pressure over the plains builds toward the area. stronger CAA into the west has kept temps in the lower 50s while readings had climbed to around 60 to the lower 60s over the rest of the cwa. Tuesday, High pressure will continue to build into the area bringing another mostly sunny day. However, with 850 mb temps near 0C, temps will remain in the lower to mid 50s.
256 PM CDT Mon Oct 9 2017 Main issue tonight will be the freezing temperatures, some lows will be in the lower 20s across central sections of the area, which should nearly end the growing season for west and central North Dakota. While the h850 flow regime will bring in a warm front aloft tonight, the clear skies, late afternoon dewpoints in the lower to middle 20s, and winds becoming light will allow a strong inversion to form. The lower dry atmosphere, and the wind decoupling should allow a more robust temperature fall. So agree with the NAM/GFS guidance on lows in the lower to middle 20s south central and upper 20s to around 30 north. Tuesday will be much warmer as the surface inversion will mix out and highs will be in the lower 60s for the most part.
226 PM MDT Mon Oct 9 2017 Current surface analysis shows Canadian high pressure building into the region from the northwest, with clearing skies. Upper level analysis shows low pressure sinking south-southeast across the southern Rockies with general trough covering the Rockies and high plains regions. As high pressure settles over the region tonight, clear skies, light winds, and dry air in place will produce chilly temperatures overnight into early Tuesday.
A potent low pressure system is bringing wintry weather to portions of the Central Rockies as a cold post-frontal airmass surges southward. This deep and persistent ridging will dictate area weather in the near term. High pressure building aloft, coupled with slightly drier air in the mid and upper levels of the atmosphere will limit the potential for showers and thunderstorms. The slight drying coupled with only modest cloud cover will allow for efficient surface heating, with high temperatures climbing into the lower 90s today and tomorrow, and lows ranging from the lower to mid 70s inland to the upper 70s along the coast.
356 PM EDT Mon Jul 31 2017 High pressure will slowly shift east allowing increasing humidity and chances for showers and thunderstorms.
354 PM CDT Mon Jul 31 2017 Save for a few isolated showers across the offshore waters, most of the region is dry (and feels noticeably cooler with 3 PM CDT heat index values in the low to mid 90s) behind yesterday's slow moving front as drier air has settled into the region.
234 PM EDT Mon Jul 31 2017 High pressure and dry air will remain in control of the region through the middle of the week.
315 PM CDT Mon Jul 31 2017 H5 analysis from this morning had an elongated area of high pressure extending from west Texas into southern Oregon.
Per satellite imagery, the upper ridge was positioned over NW Nevada early this afternoon effectively blocking any northward push of monsoonal moisture into SRN Idaho. Further to the NW, a weak disturbance was noted lifting into WRN Canada while two sub-tropical features were evident off Baja lifting north around the periphery of the aforementioned ridge. The models have been fairly consistent with the idea that the ridge will hold firm over the region through the week even as the disturbance to the north tops the ridge and scoots east through Canada Tuesday.
Isolated thunderstorm threat quickly diminishes this evening as high pressure develops over the Great Basin. Expect hot and dry conditions to dominant for a couple of days before a new trough begins to move onshore from the west.
Widely scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across the higher elevations of north central PA late this aft. Perhaps more showers later, given a cold front to the north. An upper trough crossing Quebec will push a weak cold front southward into upstate NY. Latest guidance suggests isolated convection will develop in vicinity the Lower Lakes which may drift over the northern tier of central PA during the afternoon/ early evening. Humidity will slowly increase today and Tuesday, and will become noticeable as sfc dewpoints rise into the lower 60s for most by this evening. and to the lower to mid 60s on Tuesday. Lead impulses rotating through the base of the trough combined with diurnal instability will maintain chance for isolated to scattered thunderstorms Wed-Thu.
251 PM CDT Mon Jul 31 2017 Yesterday's upswing in convection across the High Plains resulted in a few MCVs drifting eastward today.
High pressure to the north will keep winds light with a northerly component.
- Izzi 233 PM CDT The days of quiet weather will come to an end for a brief time mid to late week before we transition to a cooler period this weekend.
Some places in Southwestern Georgia and Southeast Alabama could reach the lower 60s.