Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Highs should be in the lower to mid 30s over the new snow and the lower 40s in northwest IA. Cold high pressure will build in tonight bu the next system moving through the Rockies will allow mid and high clouds to spread across the area, as well as a small chance for light snow in central SD. As trough in northern branch drops southward into the northern tier of the U. Efficiency of profiles is fairly high with good lift in dendritic growth zone, but begins to become a bit warmer/lower in profile as favored area lifts northeast out of area by mid afternoon. Pieces fall apart as the northern trough sags into the region, and light snow should as well, perhaps becoming focused at a lower frontal level toward south central SD after midnight.
A front will start to drop south toward the region tonight, which will bring some rain chances to locations along and north of the Highway 82 corridor late tonight and through the day tomorrow.
Zonal flow aloft and low-layer ridging will prevail through tonight.
243 PM EST Sun Nov 5 2017 Water vapor imagery highlights a dominant mid to upper level ridge centered over Mexico. This ridge reaches northeast into the southeastern United States and supports the narrow high pressure axis dammed against the southern Appalachians. Just to our east, a moisture- starved and vertically stacked trough complex spins over the Bahamas.
1120 AM EST Sun Nov 5 2017 An elongated area of high pressure will become centered to our west today.
Models are having big problems with the low level moisture and thermal field. Latest high resolution guidance continues to support the freezing fog over the western half to two thirds of the forecast through tomorrow morning and made slight adjustments to the going forecast. A trough is set to move across the region beginning Monday night, bringing a chance of snow and mixed precipitation to the CWA. Good agreement is in place with both the global as well as the higher resolution models with a general consensus for snow amounts generally up to one inch in areas east of hwy 27.
Some subsidence from a high pressure nosing in from the northwest is clearing skies over central SD. That, and the cold advection will limit temperatures severely, and it will be a struggle to reach the freezing mark according to much of the guidance. We will again have some initial dry air to overcome with a ridge axis across the northeast part of the CWA. Could thus see some light freezing drizzle but temperatures aloft do not warm above the freezing mark so we shouldn't see very much if any ice accumulation. 1036mb high pressure follows close behind, reinforcing the cold air across the region. Breaks in the low clouds are developing, especially over central SD where skies have become partly sunny. Erosion of the low clouds should continue through this evening with most terminals seeing VFR conditions by tonight.
Strong high pressure surface and aloft will persist over the Gulf of Mexico and Florida through Monday. A cold front will push across the eastern seaboard on Monday, but the front will stall over the southeastern U. Continued warm and dry conditions with high temperatures in the lower to mid 80s. Stable dry conditions associated with the ridging will support pleasant dry weather with light winds across the entire forecast area with above normal temperatures continuing through the period.
This trend will continue through sunset, but the low stratus cover will start to build back not long after. The low level flow field will veer out tonight into early Monday, enhancing the upslope component and really reinforcing the low stratus late tonight and into the day Monday. Farther northeast, temperatures will be stuck in the lower to mid 40s yet again from Garden City and Dodge City north to Scott City to Hays.
This will keep temperatures well below normal, and perhaps not getting above freezing for most areas once temperatures drop below freezing this evening. The disturbance will continue eastward Monday evening, with moistening in the lower levels eventually leading to light snow or flurries further east across eastern MN.
356 PM EST Sun Nov 5 2017 Southwesterly flow ahead of an approaching cold front over central Indiana and Illinois has provided a very mild Sunday afternoon across eastern Kentucky. The pattern will quickly gain some amplitude heading into mid week as a ridge in the west builds over the Rockies and the longwave trough digs over the east.
The low clouds will start to lift mid morning, and like yesterday, there will be a mix of sun and clouds in the afternoon. A cold front will be taking shape over the Mid Ms Valley, increasing the pressure gradient across the region. Tonight, the cold front will approach from the northwest with a band of showers and thunderstorms. Temperatures will be cooler, but still muggy for November.
/Tonight through Monday/ High pressure will continue to build into the state tonight into tomorrow.
The backdoor front will then begin to push convective activity toward the eastern slopes of the Rocky Mountains south along the Big Belt/Little Belt mountains as well as the Bridger Range.
A cold front will move south into West Central Texas late tonight, and by mid morning tomorrow winds across all of West Central Texas will be from the north or northeast. For Sunday, scattered thunderstorms will be possible across much of West Central Texas as a cold front moves south across the area. Much cooler for Sunday with highs in the lower to mid 80s. Also, have likely Pops Sunday night across the southeast part of the area due to better large scale ascent and a cold front just south of the area.
1134 PM CDT Sat May 27 2017 At H5 ridge over the western CONUS and closed low over south central Canada with trough into Great Basin. Upper trough will move through over night with clearing skies moving in from the west and precipitation ended. Have gone with cooler guidance with lows ranging from 40 to 50 west to east across the forecast area. Forecast area will remain under the influence of the upper low over southern Canada through mid week as it drifts slowly east into southwest Canada.
Increasing heights on Sunday will bring a notable warmup away for the coast with continued warmer weather through the holiday weekend.
A roller coaster of weather will be the highlight for central and southeast Kansas over the next 7 days. A cold front is situated to the north, a boundary is running parallel to the KS and OK border. The highest probability for storms will be east of a salina to Anthony line, while the greatest risk area for significant weather being to the east of the KS turnpike.
1049 PM EDT Sat May 27 2017 Ridging over the region will weaken on Sunday as a frontal boundary slowly slides into the area. Models continue to show weak short wave trough moving through the northern portion of the area later this evening. This is suggested by some of the high resolution models. Upper level ridge will begin flattening as trough moves into the central US.
Broad cyclonic flow over the region will be gradually replaced by ridging aloft later tonight and Sunday. Sfc temps will rise into the low to mid 70s across much of the area on Sunday.
A strong upper level ridge over Western Washington will move slowly east into Eastern Washington Sunday and Memorial Day.
This, combined with mid level ridge building from the Gulf across the peninsula, point to warmer temps along the coast. Precipitable water around 1 inch or less will lead to another sunny day, though with the mid level ridge/subsidence, it will probably be a bit hazy. Axis of high pressure ridge will shift south and provide a south to southwest gradient wind. MOS doesn't show RH values as low as the past couple days, but with mid level ridging building across the area, continued subsidence should produce a little more of a dew point crash in the afternoon than guidance is showing.
MVFR stratus will meet convection from the N before daybreak with a cold front moving in our direction bringing early widespread shwrs/tstms from 09-13Z. The cold front will move closer but not through until Sunday night.
In the low levels of the atmosphere, a weak Atlantic ridge of high pressure will extend across south central Florida overnight. In the mid levels of the atmosphere, an area of high pressure will be centered near the west coast of the Florida peninsula tonight. In the upper levels of the atmosphere, a ridge of high pressure will progress eastward over the eastern Gulf of Mexico overnight.
611 PM CDT Sat May 27 2017 Upper rough rotating around upper low over Manitoba will move across eastern Nebraska and western Iowa tonight.
51 inches, freezing level just below 16,000 feet, and -20C level is at 24,600 feet. Flat mid level ridging over the central Gulf Coast region will be suppressed to the southeast by Sunday night as an upper low/trough moves across Ontario and the Great Lakes region during the first half of the week.
1049 PM MDT Sat May 27 2017 19z surface analysis had low over northern SK with several troughs rotating around it, one which is pushing through the CWA right now, another across ND and yet another in southern AB.
High pressure ridge axis over the Gulf is sliding eastward over the Florida Peninsula.
Expect lows overnight to fall into the low 70s for most locations. Severe storms will be possible once again on Sunday afternoon through Sunday night, this time for a greater portion of our region, as a cold front nears the region, providing enough lift to finally break the cap. /3/ On Sunday night we will have an upper trough centered with a closed low over South Central Canada which will extend down to the Lower Mississippi Valley.
856 PM CDT Sat May 27 2017 Isolated showers and thunderstorms developed under the anvil of thunderstorms over the Serranias del Burro and are moving to the east along the Highway 90 corridor. Upper air analysis this morning showed nearly zonal flow over TX with a trough over the central Rockies. At the surface, high pressure was centered over the Gulf making the winds across our CWA from the south to southeast. The upper trough will move away from the Rockies into the central plains and turn the flow over TX to the south-southwest.
508 PM MDT Sat May 27 2017 19z surface analysis had low over northern SK with several troughs rotating around it, one which is pushing through the CWA right now, another across ND and yet another in southern AB.
Models depict an 85H theta-e ridge axis along the Rio Grande into the far western Brush Country through the evening hours with activity possibly being sustained as it approaches the border.
620 PM CDT Sat May 27 2017 At H5 ridge over the western CONUS and closed low over south central Canada with trough into Great Basin. Upper trough will move through over night with clearing skies moving in from the west and precipitation ended. Have gone with cooler guidance with lows ranging from 40 to 50 west to east across the forecast area. Forecast area will remain under the influence of the upper low over southern Canada through mid week as it drifts slowly east into southwest Canada.
CIGS will be slow to improve again tomorrow amid a very moist airmass in the lowest few thousand feet trapped beneath a warm and dry layer aloft.
Expect SHRA/TSRA development (some possibly strong/severe) tomorrow afternoon to our W and NW along and ahead of a cold front with activity working its way into our area late in the afternoon and on into the evening hours.
Timing for the highest precipitation and thunderstorm chances will be during the overnight hours for northern sites, in the hours either side of sunrise over the central, and around mid to late morning in the south.
Then for late tonight through Sun AM another round of light to moderate rainfall will develop ahead a large scale upper trough approaching from the nrn Great Plains. Warm, moist advection will increase ahead of the upper trough along with PVA and some elevated moisture and CAPE for the showers and isold tstorms. There will be additional shower and storm chances drng the aftn as a cold front approaches late in the day. cooler at the lake.
A cold front will move south into West Central Texas late tonight, and by mid-morning tomorrow winds across all of West Central Texas will be from the north or northeast. For Sunday, scattered thunderstorms will be possible across much of West Central Texas as a cold front moves south across the area. Much cooler for Sunday with highs in the lower to mid 80s. Also, have likely Pops Sunday night across the southeast part of the area due to better large scale ascent and a cold front just south of the area.
Overall, the upper air pattern remains PNA with west coast ridging and an upper trough over the upper Mississippi valley. Cool Canadian air should move into Kansas tonight and Sunday in association with a polar high pressure system building south through the plains.
1120 PM CDT Sat May 27 2017 Upper rough rotating around upper low over Manitoba will move across eastern Nebraska and western Iowa tonight.
Current satellite pictures are showing the upper trough axis moving south over the northern CWA right now. Drier and more subsident conditions are expected on Sunday as a little more ridging moves in from the west. Lingering moisture over the mountains along with heating of the higher terrain will de-stabilize the airmass over the mountains with scattered afternoon thunderstorms expected. Afternoon showers should remain over the mountains, and then dissipate as they move away from the higher terrain. Temperatures should also be much warmer, into the lower 70s on the plains.
Severe storms will be possible once again on Sunday afternoon through Sunday night, this time for a greater portion of our region, as a cold front nears the region, providing enough lift to finally break the cap. /3/ On Sunday night we will have an upper trough centered with a closed low over South Central Canada which will extend down to the Lower Mississippi Valley.
Persistence type pattern continues tonight with high pressure over the eastern Gulf supporting the reformation of low stratus by and after 28. As for temps with the continued onshore flow across the region, lows tonight will run 3-5 degrees above seasonal averages, ranging from the lower 70s for most inland areas and the middle 70s near the immediate coast.
HRRR model suggests bulk of the convection to remain out of the ArkLaTex through 3 AM before a cold front slides south across the I-30 corridor. MVFR stratus will meet convection from the N before daybreak with a cold front moving in our direction bringing early widespread shwrs/tstms from 09-13Z. The cold front will move closer but not through until Sunday night.
NAM shows us mixing a bit above 800mb, which will ensure frequent gusts up around 25 mph by the afternoon, but other than that, we should see a fair amount of sun, and mixing up to h8 will allow us to warm comfortably into the upper 60s to lower 70s, so we should put together one more nice day Sunday before we finally turn cooler, cloudier, and showerier for Memorial Day.
834 PM EDT Sat May 27 2017 Ridging over the region will weaken on Sunday as a frontal boundary slowly slides into the area. Models continue to show weak short wave trough moving through the northern portion of the area later this evening. This is suggested by some of the high resolution models. Upper level ridge will begin flattening as trough moves into the central US.
Convection over the higher terrain in northeast Mexico has diminished as it approached the Rio Grande this evening where an axis of decreasing low level moisture and increasing convective inhibition remains in place. Increased sky cover for tonight as convective debris clouds cover the region at this time and then the low stratus over the coastal areas is expected to move inland overnight. Models depict an 85H theta-e ridge axis along the Rio Grande into the far western Brush Country through the evening hours with activity possibly being sustained as it approaches the border.
Aloft we are SW 25-55KTS in the low levels on our VAD. MVFR stratus will meet convection from the N before daybreak with a cold front on approach, widespread shwrs/tstms from 09-15Z will decay. The cold front will move closer but not through until Sunday night.
953 PM EDT Sat May 27 2017 Weak low pressure will shift east the area this evening.
A cold front is moving across the southern Texas Panhandle this afternoon with northerly winds BTWN 10 to 20 kts at all terminals expected. This threat should diminish around midnight, as the cold front will move through and daytime heating will be gone. Strong northerly winds with the cold front will be expected. As the cold front exits the area, lighter northerly winds will remain for Sunday, and daytime highs will be in the mid 70s to low 80s.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 68 85 69 82 / 90 60 60 40 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 66 82 66 79 / 80 60 60 40 Oak Ridge, TN 66 82 66 79 / 80 60 60 40 Tri Cities Airport, TN 61 79 63 78 / 60 60 60 50.
1149 PM EDT Sat May 27 2017 Se Mi will remain under the influence of departing high pressure through the morning.
GAH PREVIOUS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION: The upper-flow pattern for tonight and Sunday consists of an amplified ridge, with its axis centered along the West Coast, and a trough anchored by a closed, stacked low centered over central Manitoba. Through Sunday afternoon the ridge drifts east slightly and the low center plunges into southwest Ontario and northern Minnesota. Northeast Montana will remain under the boundary between the cooler air of the trough and the warmer air of the ridge, resulting in near normal late May temperatures. Sunday, models again point to a well mixed boundary layer with a pressure gradient increasing across western zones as the closed low to the northeast moves south and east. Upper ridge moves across the region through midweek then begins to break down.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 67 85 69 82 / 90 60 60 40 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 62 82 66 79 / 80 60 60 40 Oak Ridge, TN 64 82 66 79 / 80 60 60 40 Tri Cities Airport, TN 60 79 63 78 / 80 60 60 50.
917 PM EDT Sat May 27 2017 High pressure will slide south of the region tonight. A cold front will move into the area Sunday and stall.
Other than the cold, the main forecast concerns are some intermittent snow which has been sprouting up in some of the cold air advection regime - very reminiscent to lake effect snow bands, but more of a differential instability issue with the bright sky cover, cold temps, and flow around a weak area of low pressure. The upper low over Hudson Bay will continue to pull cold Arctic air into the northland. The GFS digs the upper trof into the Pacific northwest late in the week faster and deeper than the ECMWF, which results in a more Pacific flow. GFS is warmer than ECMWF in the warm up, and will generally side with the more conservative ECMWF.
the area of snow/sleet/freezing rain mix was pushing across Nebraska and a large part of Iowa.
320 PM CST Mon Feb 5 2018 Clearing taking place across eastern MN as the trough exits the region. High pressure builds across the area tonight and should provide a mostly clear sky and decreasing winds.
206 PM EST Mon Feb 5 2018 A secondary cold front has pushed off the coast. High pressure will build into the region this afternoon.
236 PM MST Mon Feb 5 2018 Cold front recently swept southwest through the area with northeast wind gusts to 40 mph. Tuesday night, mid level qg subsidence will move across the region as the trough axis exits the state.
Cannot completely rule out patchy freezing drizzle throughout the day, but definitely main precipitation type will be snow. less lift and questionable deep saturation will limit wintry precipitation potential, with only patchy areas of light snow/flurries and perhaps patchy light freezing drizzle Tuesday afternoon and evening. However, deepening lift and saturation may support increasing light snow and/or freezing drizzle potential across southeast Kansas during the late afternoon and evening.
Canadian high pressure moving across the region will again result in cold temperatures tonight and the potential for wind chills below minus 20.
342 PM CST Mon Feb 5 2018 High pressure will continue to slide east tonight with southerly flow advecting moisture northward into the forecast region. A cold front currently stretched across the Plains states will move southeast across the region on Tuesday with a colder airmass filtering into northern sections.
VFR should return to all terminals after 15Z on Tuesday as the low clouds and fog burn off.
102 PM EST Mon Feb 5 2018 A weak area of low pressure will pass well north of the region late tonight and Tuesday.
South winds have already developed as the center of high pressure moves off to the east. Also, clouds associated with a weak upper level trough will move in late tonight. Temps will be warmer with partial sunshine. Clouds will fill in again quickly in the afternoon as a major system takes shape over the Lower MS Valley.
1156 AM CST Mon Feb 5 2018 For the 18Z TAFs, a surface trof of low pressure will move across the region this afternoon with winds becoming northwest. This will quickly be followed by a cold front passage late this afternoon and early this evening.
Couple those factors with the fact that we're sitting at 20 degrees at the office this afternoon, overnight lows in the low to mid single digits again seem plausible. What a difference from last week's model presentation, which originally showed a leeside low lifting north from the southern High Plains, with a cold front and associated frontogenesis max approaching from north, which were to both act as additional forcing mechanisms for precip production.
The center of high pressure will rapidly move out of the Central Plains this morning, and into the Mississippi valley and southern plains later today. As surface pressure falls across the southern High Plains, winds will rapidly turn northerly as a cold front moves from northwest Kansas into he Panhandles between noon and mid afternoon.
Models do not have this well depicted so unsure how much of the low clouds across south central Canada will make it into the state. With the high pressure building into the region, expect a clearing sky from north to south this morning.
Warmer, but still subzero lows will prevail across the rest of the area, except near Lake Michigan. Tuesday Night Through Monday Well below normal temperatures will remain through the weekend as the region remains under an upper level trough. Specifically the systems taking aim for the region late in the week and during the weekend still bring a few inches to the region as the high end scenario, with the low end scenario producing little to no accumulation.
146 PM EST Mon Feb 5 2018 A secondary cold front has pushed off the coast. High pressure will build into the region this afternoon.
The boundary will move northward as a warm front tonight with patchy fog and drizzle northern of the front and patchy fog and showers south of the front. Will likely see more widespread areas of fog across the lower Texas coast late tonight into early Tues morning. Temperatures will be tricky tonight into Tuesday with the warm front moving northward. Have leaned towards the high resolution temperature guidance based on the NAM for tonight through Tuesday for now. The NAM is faster than the GFS with a stronger cold front approaching deep south TX late Tues night.
407 PM EST Mon Feb 5 2018 High pressure will build in from the west tonight and slide offshore Tuesday. A cold front will move through midweek followed by high pressure late week. Another cold front will move into the region over the weekend.
If light showers are able to move in Tuesday morning we could see a very light wintry mix of precipitation as temperatures will still be below freezing near the surface. Pattern will be kind of progressive initially as a broad longwave trough moves through the area Wed/Wed ngt.
220 PM EST Mon Feb 5 2018 High pressure building into the area tonight will move off the coast Tuesday.