Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS. DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS AND SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND AS THE SYSTEM SHIFTS INLAND AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. THIS IS DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT IS DIVING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE TODAY WHICH WILL LEAD TO MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAY. THE UPPER LOW. AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES SOUTH. SHOWER CHANCES TO DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES TOWARDS LAS VEGAS.
SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND SW VA.
AS THE CLOSED LOW MOVES INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION.
THE COMBINATION OF UPPER RIDGING AND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL KEEP WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. LOWS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE LOW AND MIDDLE 60S.
647 AM CDT THU MAY 7 2015 A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY ORIENTED NORTH-SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL APPROACH SLOWLY THROUGH THE DAY WHILE A LARGE SCALE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN U. AND RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN U.
VFR TAFS WITH ONLY MINIMAL WINDS EXPECTED TODAY THANKS TO THE RIDGE IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES AND BEING ON THE DRY SIDE OF AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING UP THE CAROLINA COAST. THE PERSISTENT RIDGE CAN BE SEEN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO RIVER VALLEY WITH A CLOSED LOW OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. A LONGWAVE TROUGH CAN BE SEEN ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OFF THE CONUS. A LOW EXISTS UNDER THE CLOSED LOW OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE AREA WITH DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. EXPECT HIGHS WILL BE ABOUT 2-3 DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY WITH HIGHER HEIGHTS IN PLACE. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT IN THE LOW 90S ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA FRI- SUN WITH THE RIDGE HOLDING STRONG.
944 AM EDT THU MAY 7 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE OFFSHORE TODAY.
1023 AM EDT THU MAY 7 2015 WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGE SHOWS DRY AIR FUNNELING IN FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN US INTO FLORIDA BEHIND THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE BAHAMAS. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY AND SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WITH A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTING EASTWARD INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION.
704 AM EDT THU MAY 7 2015 UPDATE/AVIATION HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN US WILL GIVE US ANOTHER MOSTLY SUNNY DAY WITH MILD TEMPERATURES. LOW PRESSURE IN THE PLAINS WILL MOVE EAST LATER TONIGHT AND DRAG A COLD FRONT TO NEAR THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY MIDNIGHT. SMALL AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NE ALONG THE FRONT FROM THE SRN PLAINS.
1053 AM EDT THU MAY 7 2015 A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN FREE AND INCREASINGLY WARM WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY.
A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING CLOUDY AND COLDER WEATHER TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
1029 AM EDT THU MAY 7 2015 MID/UPPER RIDGE HOLDS IN PLACE WITH WEAK STEERING FLOW. STAGNANT UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES. THIS RIDGING WILL BRING A SUBTLE CHANGE TO OUR WEATHER TODAY. WILL KEEP THE LOW LANDS DRY OUTSIDE THE AFOREMENTIONED SLIGHT CHANCE. COMPLEMENTS OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST UPPER LOW DRIFTING NORTH NORTHWEST.
MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ANOTHER MOSTLY DRY AND SUNNY DAY IS ON TAP AS THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE STICKS AROUND. THIS WILL FUEL DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTIVE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE ELEVATED HEATING SURFACES OF THE RIDGES. ANOTHER DRY AND MILD NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN CURRENT LOW TEMPERATURES. VERY MINIMAL CHANGE TO THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN LOOKS TO BE IN STORE DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD OF THE FORECAST AS A SPRAWLING UPPER RIDGE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. WITH THE RIDGE AXIS SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST OF THE AREA.
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WAS OVER THE REGION YESTERDAY HAS DROPPED INTO CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA. OTHERWISE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL SEE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES. MOSTLY CLEAR AND COOL TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.
THERE COULD BE SOME DEVELOPMENT IN THE WRAPAROUND BAND CURRENTLY OVER THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/RIDGE OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC/CANADIAN WEST COAST WILL SHIFT EAST TO THE GULF OF AK/CANADIAN ROCKIES BY 84 HOURS WITH SOME MODERATE AMPLIFICATION. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER NORTHERN CA WILL ROLL OUT IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MAY SPREAD POPS INTO THE FAR SOUTHERN ZONES LATE IN THE SHORT TERM.
/ISSUED 301 AM CDT THU MAY 7 2015/ SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOWER 50S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES. HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO COVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN U. AND THIS HIGH WILL KEEP THINGS DRY FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE AGAIN TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
601 AM CDT THU MAY 7 2015 SURFACE OBSERVATIONS PORTRAYING GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS BETWEEN 25 AND 40 MPH BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. SURFACE COLD FRONT NOW MOVING INTO JAMESTOWN AND SOUTH INTO OAKES. LATEST RADAR AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICT THE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW NOW CIRCULATING OVER THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY. BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THE LATEST 05 UTC RUN OF THE HRRR SHOWS SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BECOMING SCATTERED BY 16 UTC. MOS GUIDANCE FROM THE GFS IS SHOWING THE LOWER 30S ACROSS THE NORTHWEST WHILE THE NAM GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THE UPPER 20S.
THE COASTAL LOW WILL BE NEARLY STATIONARY OFF THE NC/SC BORDER BUT AS THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EAST AND A SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS.
THE 00Z H5 PATTERN SHOWED LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTH DAKOTA. WITH CLOSED LOW PRESSURE OVER WASHINGTON STATE AND OREGON.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY AND SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WITH A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTING EASTWARD INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION.
AS THE LOCAL AREA RESIDES IN A STRONG SUBSIDENT REGION AS LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTH. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 80S ALONG THE COAST TO THE MID/UPPER 80S INLAND.
THE PERSISTENT RIDGE CAN BE SEEN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO RIVER VALLEY WITH A CLOSED LOW OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. A LONGWAVE TROUGH CAN BE SEEN ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OFF THE CONUS. A LOW EXISTS UNDER THE CLOSED LOW OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE AREA WITH DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. EXPECT HIGHS WILL BE ABOUT 2-3 DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY WITH HIGHER HEIGHTS IN PLACE. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT IN THE LOW 90S ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA FRI- SUN WITH THE RIDGE HOLDING STRONG.
ANOTHER WARM AND RATHER HUMID SUMMER LIKE DAY EXPECTED WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY ORIENTED NORTH-SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL APPROACH SLOWLY THROUGH THE DAY WHILE A LARGE SCALE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN U. AND RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN U.
409 AM PDT THU MAY 7 2015 High pressure will gradually build in through the weekend resulting in mostly clear skies and warming temperatures. but most likely a cooling trend will take place along with a chance of showers as a low pressure system tracks near or across the region.
1051 AM EDT THU MAY 7 2015 LOW PRESSURE OFF THE GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA COAST WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTH TODAY THEN TO COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA FRIDAY.
954 AM EDT THU MAY 7 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC TODAY. LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WILL APPROACH THE COASTLINE FRIDAY BEFORE GRADUALLY ERODING THIS WEEKEND.
THIS IS ADVECTING DRY AIR SURFACE AND ALOFT WITH DEW POINTS DROPPING INTO THE 50S NORTH AND CENTRAL TO THE LOWER 60S SOUTH.
NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE ATLANTIC OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT JUST TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME. THE COLD FRONT TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAY. WITH UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS.
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS THIS MORNING PLACES AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE MID SOUTH ARE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S AT MOST LOCATIONS. SHOULD TRANSLATE TO AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S AT MOST LOCATIONS. /ISSUED 301 AM CDT THU MAY 7 2015/ SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOWER 50S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES. HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO COVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN U. AND THIS HIGH WILL KEEP THINGS DRY FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE AGAIN TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
THE UPPER IMPULSE IS EXPECTED TO PIVOT AROUND THE LOW AND BRING A SMALL THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE WEST MAGIC VALLEY AND AREAS SOUTH AND WEST TO THE ID-NV BORDER.
751 AM EDT THU MAY 7 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THIS EVENING. LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY NEAR THE CAROLINAS THIS WEEKEND.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE GENERAL REGION BRINGING PERIODS OF LOW CLOUDS AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST.
625 AM CDT THU MAY 7 2015 FOR 12Z TAFS /ISSUED 251 AM CDT THU MAY 7 2015/ UNDER MOSTLY CLR SKIES TEMPS WERE RANGING BETWEEN 55 AND 60 DEGREES WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW/MID 50S. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE FOR MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES/WARM TEMPS TODAY. HOWEVER WITH INCREASING MOISTURE IN THE LOW/MID LEVELS THERE COULD BE AN ISOLATED AFTN/EVENING SHRA/TSRA.
AN UPPER LOW IS MOVING ACROSS OUR AREA THIS MORNING, AND IT WILL SLIDE INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA LATER THIS MORNING.
1128 PM CST WED JAN 6 2016 ADDING A TIER OF COUNTIES TO THE CURRENT ADVISORY AFTER SPOTTER REPORTS OF FREEZING RAIN NEAR HWY 212 SOUTH OF IPSWICH. FOG IS THICKENING ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING AND FREEZING ON SURFACES. THERE ARE ALSO PATCHY AREAS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE THAT ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT. CANCELLED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ALONG I-29 A LITTLE EARLY THIS EVENING SINCE ALL FREEZING RAIN HAS STOPPED IN THE EAST. FREEZING DRIZZLE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD TONIGHT SO ANOTHER HEADLINE ISSUANCE IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
THE OTHER ISSUE WILL BE FREEZING DRIZZLE. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP A FREEZING DRIZZLE MENTION THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING AND WILL KEEP THE ADVISORY GOING IN THE SOUTH FOR THAT REASON. WILL INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF FREEZING DRIZZLE MENTION FOR TONIGHT. FOLLOWING WHERE THE MODELS HAVE THE LOWER CHANCES OF ICE CRYSTALS IN THE CLOUD.
THE CONSENSUS OF THE HIGH RES GUIDANCE INDICATES THIS AREA OF PRECIPITATION WILL END BETWEEN 06-08Z. EXPECT A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW TO DEVELOP IN THE LEE OF THE SOUTHERN SIERRAS.
CLOUDS ARE GOING TO START MOVING IN BUT OVERALL I THINK TODAY SHOULD FEEL A LITTLE BIT WARMER.
307 AM EST THU JAN 7 2016 WE BEGIN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH AN ABUNDANCE OF LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT WELL OFF THE FLORIDA COAST AS ALLOWED FOR A NORTHEAST CONVERGENT FLOW ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. WE WILL REMAIN BETWEEN MAJOR STORM SYSTEMS TODAY WITH EVEN SOME RIDGING ALOFT NOTED.
FIRST WAS FOCUSED ON THE FREEZING DRIZZLE/DRIZZLE TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. AREAS OF (FREEZING)DRIZZLE/MIST LOOK TO PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST 14- 15Z THIS MORNING. SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE HOVERING AROUND FREEZING AND LIKELY TO SEE AT LEAST SOME ELEVATED SURFACES WITH A GLAZE OF ICE WITH THIS FREEZING DRIZZLE. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO GRADUALLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING THIS MORNING AND THUS THE FREEZING DRIZZLE THREAT WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH 14Z-15Z. INCREASED POPS TO CATEGORICAL FOR THE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE OVER CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
328 AM EST THU JAN 7 2016 HIGH PRESSURE IN THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION WILL SLOWLY GIVE WAY TO LOW PRESSURE IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
WITH GREATEST THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE ANTICIPATED BETWEEN 02 AND 08Z AS THE TROUGH LIFTS ACROSS THE REGION. VFR TO MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE EVENING WITH A NEARLY STATIONARY WARM FRONT DRAPED ALONG THE UPPER TEXAS COAST. A WARM FRONT. AS THE MID/UPPER TROF MOVES NORTHEAST OF THE AREA WE WILL SEE THE PRECIP MOVE EAST OF SE TX ON THU MORNING AND WE WILL SEE SOME BRIEF DRYING. ANOTHER DEEPER MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF APPROACHES ON FRI AFTERNOON AND MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TENDED UPWARD WITH RAIN CHCS WITH THIS FEATURE.
THE MAIN UPPER LOW IS OVER N TX/NM AND ARCS A BAND OF RA SHOWERS OFF THE COASTAL BEND AND IS MOVING NE AT 30KTS.
/ISSUED 222 PM EST WED JAN 6 2016/ HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY.
GIVEN THE WARM ADVECTION IN THE LOW LAYERS AND WIDESPREAD STRATUS AND FOG.
STILL STAYED ABOVE GFS COOP GUIDANCE WHICH HAD SOME SPOTS DROPPING INTO THE LOWER TEENS BUT HAVE AT LEAST TRENDED IN THE COLDER DIRECTION. MID/UPPER LEVEL WAVE AND ITS CORRESPONDING SFC WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD INTO OUR AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT PROVIDING OUR NEXT SHOT AT SOME RAIN. STAYING CLOSER TO THE COOLER SIDE OF OUR MODEL GUIDANCE.
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST FROM THE FOUR CORNERS AREA TO CENTRAL KANSAS BY LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. DUE TO THE HIGH AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IN THE AIR /DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER T0 MID 30S/ THIS AFTERNOON. SHOULD BE JUST WARM ENOUGH AT THE SURFACE TO KEEP THE FREEZING RAIN MENTION OUT OF THE FORECAST. ON THURSDAY NIGHT A NEGATIVELY TILTED CLOSED LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS FROM SOUTHWEST KANSAS INTO NORTHEAST KANSAS.
COOLER AIR FROM CANADA WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH THROUGH CENTRAL MONTANA OVERNIGHT THEN INTO SOUTHERN MONTANA ON THURSDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST RIDGES ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD TO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THERE WILL BE SOME FOG UNDER THE LOW CLOUDS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE WATERS RELAXES TONIGHT AS THE LOW IN THE BAHAMAS EASES AWAY.
CALLS TO LEC/S IN OUR SOUTHWEST CWA REVEALED FEW FREEZING DRIZZLE REPORTS AND THE LATEST RAP SHOWED SATURATION OCCURRING AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER 04Z RESULTING IN MAINLY SNOW. WE STILL THINK THERE COULD BE SOME PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT AND CONTINUE TO MENTION IN THE FORECAST. ESPECIALLY IN THE LOW LEVELS. S/W TROF AXIS OVER IOWA LATE THIS AFTERNOON IS ACCOMPANIED BY A FAIRLY LARGE PRECIP SHIELD. AREAS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE/FLURRIES/FOG WILL PERSIST THROUGH TOMORROW.
313 AM CST THU JAN 7 2016 TROUGH AXIS PIVOTING THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING. THAT WILL HAPPEN WITH THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH SAT MORNING. COOL DRY AIR WILL MOVE IN SAT AND SUN BUT CLOUDS WILL BE HARD TO GET RID OF AS THE 700MB THERMAL TROUGH WILL THEN SWING THROUGH THE GULF COAST SAT NIGHT AND SUN. CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE THROUGH THE MORNING AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE GULF SOUTH. WINDS AND SEAS WILL EASE THROUGH THE DAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES AND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTS THE AREA.
AS THE LOW CLOUDS MAY BE STUBBORN TO COMPLETELY SCATTER OUT UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY. WITH READINGS LIKELY REMAINING STEADY OR EVEN SLOWLY RISING OVERNIGHT AS THE RAIN BRINGS SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS ALOFT DOWN TO THE SFC. THE MAIN UPPER LOW IS OVER W TX/NM ATTN AND IS ON APPROACH WITH TSTMS OVER THE TX COASTAL BEND MOVING TOWARD KLFK AND PUSHING OUT OF THE HILL COUNTRY FOR I-20 TERMINALS MID TO LATE EVENING.
114 AM EST THU JAN 7 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SLOWLY EAST AND OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TODAY.
LEADING UP TO THE PRECIP TODAY MODEL SOUNDINGS WERE BOTH TOO QUICK TO SATURATE AND A COUPLE DEGREES COOLER THAN REALITY. HAVE ALSO BUMPED UP THE MIN TEMP GRIDS BY A DEGREE OR SO VERSUS PREVIOUS GIVEN WARMER TEMPS SEEN TODAY.
THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WATER VAPOR SAT SHOWS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. AT THIS TIME FREEZING FOG IS EXPECTED RATHER THAN FREEZING DRIZZLE.
ALTHOUGH SOME REPORTS OF RAIN/FREEZING DRIZZLE/DRIZZLE WERE OBSERVED ON LOCAL WEB CAMS AND SFC OBSERVATIONS IN SW/WC/SC MN SINCE NOON. THERE SHOULD ONLY BE A FEW HRS OF LIGHT SNOW AND WITH TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO FREEZING. WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A CHANCE OF DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE LATE TONIGHT/THURSDAY DEPENDING UPON SFC TEMPS.
400 AM EST THU JAN 7 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
SURFACE AND UPPER RIDGING WILL PRODUCE ANOTHER TRANQUIL DAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY AT ALL TAF SITES.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS PUMPING SOME MOISTURE INTO THIS AREA AND WITH A SE UPSLOPE FLOW THE SNOW COULD PERSIST ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE OREGON CASCADES BEFORE DIMINISHING TOWARD MORNING. OTHERWISE LOW CLOUDS AND FREEZING FOG CONTINUE OVER THE BASIN AND THE PRESENT SHORT TERM FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK FOR NOW.
DRIZZLE (FREEZING IN SOME PLACES) AND FOG ACROSS THE REGION. BOTH THE NAM AND THE GFS HAVE THE ENTIRE PROFILE BELOW FREEZING. EXCEPT FOR THE SURFACE TEMPS WHICH WILL HOVER RIGHT AROUND FREEZING. AND WITH THE WARMER TEMPERATURES EXPECTING MINIMAL/MANAGEABLE IMPACTS ON THE MAIN ROADS AND PAVED SURFACES. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN STEADY AROUND OR JUST ABOVE FREEZING AND THE LIGHT NATURE OF THE SNOW.
LOW LEVELS WARM THROUGH THE MORNING BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND CRITICAL THICKNESSES SHOW POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE OR FREEZING RAIN. RADAR MOSAIC SHOWING LARGE AREA OF DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE OVER CENTRAL IA MOVING NE. LOW LEVELS WARM ENOUGH LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT AS SECONDARY SHORT WAVE TROF AND ANOTHER ROUND OF WARM.
AND THE FACT THAT THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW THIS AREA PIVOTING OVER THE CASS/TRAILL/CLAY AND NORMAN COUNTY AREAS THROUGH THE NIGHT. THIS OTHER AREA IS STILL COVERED BY A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE 1 OR SO INCHES OF SNOW AND THE FOG/FREEZING DRIZZLE.
314 AM EST THU JAN 7 2016 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL WEAKEN TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
THE FORECAST PROBLEM IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT IS CURRENTLY GETTING ITS ACT TOGETHER OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE LOW WILL TAP INTO GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE ON ITS EASTWARD TREK. COMBINED WITH THE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW. THE PRIMARY LIFTING MECHANISM WILL BE A WEAK SURFACE WARM FRONT.
1217 AM EST THU JAN 7 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH THURSDAY.
Upper level winds will shift southwest today as the ridge axis pivots through the Quad State area. This shift, combined with southerly surface winds will open up warmer moist Gulf flow into the Mississippi River Valley ahead of the next system.
These light winds coupled with increasing high clouds will keep temperatures much warmer than last night, with lows expected in the 20s to lower 30s. A few of the typically cooler spots may decouple enough to fall into the lower 20s or even upper teens. Therefore, the high temperature forecast is a bit tricky for Thursday given the clouds may battle the advection, but will go with highs in the upper 40s to lower 50s.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING A VIGOROUS MID-LEVEL TROUGH/CLOSED LOW OVER WESTERN IA. COULD BE A BOUT OF FREEZING DRIZZLE. MODELS SHOW MID-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING BEHIND THE DEPARTING WAVE THURSDAY MORNING. COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE AS WELL FOR AREAS THAT REMAIN BELOW 32 IN THE MORNING.
Light rain moved out of the northeast corner of the area this afternoon as the upper trough was moving into Iowa at 2030Z. Expect temperatures tonight to only fall off a few degrees and remain above freezing. Highs on Thursday will warm up into the lower to middle 40s.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY INTO THE DAY THURSDAY.
75" range along and west of the Highway 65 corridor.
Chances for precipitation will increase from the southwest toward the northeast late in the afternoon as the low approaches from that direction. Temperatures will continue to hover in the low to mid 30s this morning as cloud cover and winds prevent much cooling from occurring the remainder of the night. rising to the low to mid 40s this afternoon. A deep trof is developing over the western half of the country as the Midwest remains under mainly southwesterly flow, keeping mild temperatures in place with increasing llvl moisture as well. Temperatures may have had a chance to become even warmer, but the series of waves and the precip/clouds forecast will counter that.
1231 AM EST THU JAN 7 2016 HIGH PRESSURE IN THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION WILL SLOWLY GIVE WAY TO LOW PRESSURE IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY A WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL LIFT ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.
PUT IN MVFR CIGS FOR KCKV LATE TOMORROW EVENING AND VCSH FOR BOTH KBNA AND KCKV AS EFFECTS FROM THE UPPER TROUGH SHOULD BEGIN AT THE END OF THIS TAF PERIOD.
235 AM EST THU JAN 7 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH TODAY.
As low pressure deepens in the lee of the Rockies tonight, light west winds become southeasterly upslope drawing moisture northward. Could be areas of fog with patchy drizzle mainly after 9 pm near Liberal to Garden City and Hays and east, as the lower atmosphere reaches saturation. Surface temps will mainly stay above freezing, except west of Garden City. For Thursday, the first wave, in a series of upper level lows, will move into southwestern Kansas by morning, then to south central Kansas by evening. Rainfall amounts should be under one quarter of inch, with the higher amounts near Dodge City and north.
A BLOCKING RIDGE AT 500 MB WAS CENTERED ALONG THE BORDER OF THE YUKON AND NORTHWEST TERRITORIES. WHILE A TROUGH STRETCHED FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA DOWN TO OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. SFC ANALYSIS EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWED LOW PRESSURE CENTERS OVER COLORADO AND EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER AND MID 30S.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT RETREATS TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. THIS SMALL AREA WILL BE THE FORECAST PROBLEM OVERNIGHT AS CLEARING HAS ALREADY AFFECTED TEMPERATURES IN THIS AREA WITH KINT ALREADY 7 DEGREES COOLER THAN KGSO. THE LOW LEVEL AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO UNDERGO A SLOW MODIFICATION. CURRENTLY FORECAST HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S FAR NORTH-NW TO THE LOW-MID 50S SE.
BEGINNING TO LOOK LIKE A POTENTIAL DENSE FOG EVENT THURSDAY EVENING AS MOISTURE REMAINS NEAR THE SURFACE IN THE WAKE OF THE WEAK TROF WITH CLEARING SKIES ABOVE. REGIONAL 00Z SOUNDINGS SHOW PLENTY OF MOISTURE SFC-600 MB HELPED IN PART BY SERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND LOWER PRESSURES NOTED OVER SRN TX. CLEARING THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE TRAILING TROF MOVES THROUGH. AT THE SURFACE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND STRETCHING INTO THE SE STATES WHILE LOW PRESSURE IS DEVELOPING OVER THE PLAINS. AS DEW PTS INC OVER THE COOLER GULF PATCHY SEA FOG MAY DEVELOP THIS EVENING.
TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY IN THE LOWER 30S ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION WITH UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ELSEWHERE. TEMPERATURES IN THIS SAME REGION ARE STILL IN THE LOWER 40S SO SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO OVERNIGHT LOWS WERE MADE ONLY ON THE ORDER OF A DEGREE OR TWO. /ISSUED 316 PM CST WED JAN 6 2016/ MEMPHIS HAS ALREADY MADE IT INTO THE LOW 50S EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. BUT THE COLDEST LOCATIONS NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER MAY MAKE IT NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AS A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE SOUTHWEST.