Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
The cold front associated with today's trough has made it across much of the CWA, with attendant snow ongoing in a slow-moving SW-NE oriented zone from the Magic Valley up the Snake Plain to the MT border. Wed, a weaker secondary wave will ride south into the back of the main trough with the chance of a few light snow showers everywhere, but favored across mntn areas (especially east of I-15).
400 AM CST Tue Feb 15 2022 Warming temperatures and breezy southerly winds are expected for today, ahead of another cold front which will take us back to the downhill slide of the roller coaster. This could be most problematic for areas in far eastern CWA, especially east of the Buffalo Ridge, where winds maintain an east-of-south component into the late afternoon. Meanwhile, winds look to favor south, or slightly west-of-south through the Missouri River Valley this afternoon, which should promote deeper mixing into an even warmer air mass. Aforementioned cold front pushes through the region tonight, and once again expect to see a period of stronger wind gusts for a few hours after its passage.
High pressure will continue to dominate the area today, as zonal flow aloft gradually turns more southwesterly as the next broad upper-level trough slowly translates into the region. A few other areas, including parts of Pueblo and El Paso counties, may also hit critical fire weather criteria this afternoon, but conditions will be spotty and relatively short-lived, so have decided not to expand the highlight at this time.
719 AM EST Tue Feb 15 2022 Flow aloft becomes west-southwesterly today as a short wave trough approaches from the western Gulf coast. High pressure centered on the Mid-Atlantic coast this morning sprawls across FL and most of the Gulf of Mexico with northeast becoming east low level flow. High pressure north of the waters will maintain northeast or east winds for the next couple of days.
516 AM CST Tue Feb 15 2022 Latest surface analysis this morning showed high pressure centered over the Great Lakes with a front extending from Oklahoma through the Mid South. This front will move north through the area today bringing much warmer air into the region.
120 AM PST Tue Feb 15 2022 A storm system will move southward over Eastern California today into tonight, resulting in strong, gusty winds, much cooler weather, and relatively light mountain precipitation.
415 AM MST Tue Feb 15 2022 Current surface map places low across south-central Montana with warm front across northeast Wyoming into southwest South Dakota. Water vapor imagery shows upper trof stretching from the northern Rockies into the Great Basin. For today, upper trof continues to stretch/split. Weaker northern stream trof moves into the Northern Plains today. Warm boundary layer profiles support highs in the upper 50s along the Nebraska border this afternoon, while northwest South Dakota will struggle to reach the lower 40s. As southern stream trof moves into the plains Wednesday, weak isentropic lift/upslope flow may result in a light dusting of snow over portions of northeast Wyoming into southwest South Dakota. After cooler temperatures Wednesday, a warm up is in store going into the weekend.
418 AM CST Tue Feb 15 2022 Latest surface analysis this morning showed high pressure centered over the Great Lakes with a front extending from Oklahoma through the Mid South. This front will move north through the area today bringing much warmer air into the region.
High pressure strengthens offshore, maintaining northwest flow across the Pacific Northwest, and allowing several weak disturbances to maintain clouds and some light rain or drizzle for the next few days.
As we head into the evening the upper ridge builds in again with height rises bringing increased stability and decreased shower activity. The Upper ridge weakens a bit and a short waves swings down the back of the upper ridge, bringing scattered to isolated showers, mainly from the Cascades westward in Oregon Wednesday. Heights rise again behind the trough. Northeast flow will increase on the southern coast and coastal ranges in western Siskiyou county, bringing drying and warmer temperatures on the southern coast and coastal ranges. Models begin to diverge with some models showing closed upper lows swinging down the back of the upper ridge.
Quiet across the area early this morning as broad upper level ridging continued to build into the area.
434 AM EST Tue Feb 15 2022 Currently - Robust high pressure aligned over the eastern United States is generating fresh north to northeast breezes across the Keys and surrounding waters. This is maintaining fairly cool conditions across the Keys with temperatures broadly in the lower 60s and dew points in the mid 50s. Lower to mid level ridging is in place across our area with quite dry air above a substantial inversion based just below 850 mb. The next cold front will pivot southwards then stall across the South Florida and Keys region this weekend.
Patchy to areas of frost expected as temperatures drop into the low to mid 30s in this area. Meanwhile, zonal flow prevails aloft as high pressure dominates in the low to mid levels this morning. High pressure expands and stretches along the East Coast on Wednesday allowing for a gradual increase in temperatures.
High pressure and warm weather will begin to retreat as a winter storm system impacts the area over the coming days. A low pressure system dropping south through California will bring strong and gusty winds to the area today as it approaches AZ.
(Today) Low pressure strengthens over eastern CO/western KS today, tightening the pressure gradient across the region.
The upper level low pressure system will continue to dig southward into the Desert Southwest today, taking the upper level dynamics with it. Slick paved surfaces are expected this morning due to rain and snow overnight, followed by surface temperatures falling to freezing. Showery and cooler conditions will persist through much of the day. With cooler air in place, this system will have a much better chance of bringing accumulating light snow across the region.
520 AM CST Tue Feb 15 2022 (Today) Low pressure strengthens over eastern CO/western KS today, tightening the pressure gradient across the region.
This will open the door for warm and moist air to move in from the southeast through the day, effectively moderating the cooler air currently overhead, and dissolving the subsidence inversion. Scattered showers, with isolated thunderstorms in the Straits, will be possible beginning overnight and into tomorrow afternoon as a warm front moves through the Florida Keys waters.
600 AM EST Tue Feb 15 2022 High pressure will pass overhead today, then move off the Mid- Atlantic coast Wednesday.
An upper-level trough and itâs associated cold front continues to progress out of the region on Tuesday with rising thicknesses and a switch to north-northwesterly flow in its wake. Calmer and quieter weather returns Tuesday night while the ridge of high pressure nudges further east towards the coast.
As low pressure pulls away from the region expect colder temperatures on Wednesday. Ensembles point to the upper trough pattern shifting east toward the end of the week with NW flow aloft setting up over the Northern High Plains.
Meanwhile, at the surface, high pressure over the Gulf of Mexico will interact with low pressure over the Central Plains to intensify the pressure gradient.
238 AM MST Tue Feb 15 2022 Current surface map places low across south-central Montana with warm front across northeast Wyoming into southwest South Dakota. Water vapor imagery shows upper trof stretching from the northern Rockies into the Great Basin. For today, upper trof continues to stretch/split. Weaker northern stream trof moves into the Northern Plains today. Warm boundary layer profiles support highs in the upper 50s along the Nebraska border this afternoon, while northwest South Dakota will struggle to reach the lower 40s. As southern stream trof moves into the plains Wednesday, weak isentropic lift/upslope flow may result in a light dusting of snow over portions of northeast Wyoming into southwest South Dakota. After cooler temperatures Wednesday, a warm up is in store going into the weekend.
This will be just under our new Wind Advisory criteria but will do little to detour high temperatures today from climbing from near 70 to the lower 70s this afternoon.
SFC/LL high pressure center now off to our east, and backside southerly will keep our warming trend going today and Wed. The upper trough axis remains pretty far behind the associated cold front, which will pass largely Thu afternoon. The upper trough will finally swing by late Fri. SFC/LL high pressure and flat upper flow will provide dry weather Fri-Sun, with a pretty good warming trend over the weekend. Dry high pressure with southerly winds.
This is mainly a result of the strong southerly winds that should as a cold front approaches the area. Tonight, the cold front will sweep through the area between 10pm and 3am, ushering in gusty north winds. Highs are expected to range from the mid 30s up north to the low 40s in Kansas and far southern Nebraska.
Gusty northerly winds will increase along the coast and across interior ridgetops today and Wednesday.
912 AM EST Tue Feb 15 2022 Southerly flow will set up over the Ohio Valley today and bring in significantly warmer air to the region.
317 AM CST Tue Feb 15 2022 Breezy southeast winds will develop this morning ahead of low pressure in the Rockies. Good mixing winds in a warm nose will lead to warmer than average highs today. As the low slides southeast into the central plains this evening, winds will shift to the northwest and cooler air will filter back in as Canadian high pressure builds in from the northwest. Cold northerly breezes will continue on Wednesday as H85 temps fall to around -12C on the southern gradient of the high.
Donner Pass may see a little more snow in the next couple hours before the low moves further south and showers end. The cold front has swept south already and current temperatures are colder over most of the region compared to 24 hours ago.
Warmer temperatures and dry conditions will likely return for the end of the week. Model spread is low regarding the track of the upper low through sunrise Wednesday, with slightly higher spread Wednesday afternoon but still rather good. This track takes the low into SW Arizona by 5 AM Wednesday, then eastward into SE Arizona by afternoon.
LW Chattanooga Airport, TN 63 39 63 53 68 / 0 0 10 10 100 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 59 38 64 50 69 / 0 0 0 10 90 Oak Ridge, TN 60 37 62 50 68 / 0 0 0 0 90 Tri Cities Airport, TN 55 29 59 45 66 / 0 0 0 10 80.
135 PM MST Tue Feb 15 2022 Upper trough stretches across the western CONUS, placing the northern plains in WSW flow. At the surface, low pressure is over eastern WY, with a warm front west to east across western SD, and a cold front pushing in from the west. Breezy northwesterly winds are accompanying the cold front, with some light precipitation trailing behind.
1233 PM EST Tue Feb 15 2022 Southerly flow will set up over the Ohio Valley today and bring in significantly warmer air to the region.
158 PM EST Tue Feb 15 2022 Strong high pressure building along the Atlantic seaboard has resulted in a prolonged period of small craft advisory criteria over the Keys and coastal waters. As the ridge meanders towards the east over the Atlantic through tomorrow, flow will veer more east to southeasterly.
302 PM EST Tue Feb 15 2022 This afternoon into tomorrow southwesterly flow aloft will be maintained across the area in advance of an upper level trough expected to move through the area later this week. In addition the SW flow aloft and increased moisture will aid in increased could coverage over the next 48 hours along with warmer overnight and high temperatures tomorrow.
An upper trough digs south over the western Conus to over the Desert Southwest and northwest Mexico by Wednesday evening as an upper ridge builds north along the East Coast. Tonight, even with moisture levels remaining low over the majority of the forecast area, increasing mid/upper level cloud cover will help to decrease radiational cooling overnight, with temperatures dropping into the low 40s well inland to around 50 along the coast, a bit above seasonal norms. For Wednesday, the biggest increase in moisture levels occurs as the low level flow increases over the Lower Mississippi river Valley and western portions of the Southeast. Increasing upper subsidence from the building East Coast upper ridge will help temperatures to top out in the low to mid 70s, a bit cooler near the coast.
1132 AM CST Tue Feb 15 2022 Warming temperatures and breezy southerly winds are expected for today, ahead of another cold front which will take us back to the downhill slide of the roller coaster. This could be most problematic for areas in far eastern CWA, especially east of the Buffalo Ridge, where winds maintain an east-of-south component into the late afternoon. Meanwhile, winds look to favor south, or slightly west-of-south through the Missouri River Valley this afternoon, which should promote deeper mixing into an even warmer air mass. Aforementioned cold front pushes through the region tonight, and once again expect to see a period of stronger wind gusts for a few hours after its passage.
246 PM CST Tue Feb 15 2022 Strong southerly winds will gradually diminish late this afternoon into the evening as a cold front moves in from the northwest. With a mild stat to the evening and the expected timing of the cold front lows will not be overly cold, ranging from the teens north of I-90 to the 20s to the south. Confidence not very high however as forcing in the fairly shallow dendritic layer not too bad but moisture in the lower levels is pretty low. Forcing in the fairly shallow dendritic layer not too bad but moisture in the lower levels is pretty low.
/issued 719 AM EST Tue Feb 15 2022/ Flow aloft becomes west-southwesterly today as a short wave trough approaches from the western Gulf coast. High pressure centered on the Mid-Atlantic coast this morning sprawls across FL and most of the Gulf of Mexico with northeast becoming east low level flow. High pressure north of the waters will maintain northeast or east winds for the next couple of days.
But, 30s, 40s, and even 50s will be had elsewhere as warmer low- level temps move into the region. Breezy southeast winds will develop this morning ahead of low pressure in the Rockies. Good mixing winds in a warm nose will lead to warmer than average highs today. As the low slides southeast into the central plains this evening, winds will shift to the northwest and cooler air will filter back in as Canadian high pressure builds in from the northwest. Cold northerly breezes will continue on Wednesday as H85 temps fall to around -12C on the southern gradient of the high.
SFC/LL high pressure center now off to our east, and backside southerly will keep our warming trend going today and Wed. The upper trough axis remains pretty far behind the associated cold front, which will pass largely Thu afternoon. The upper trough will finally swing by late Fri. SFC/LL high pressure and flat upper flow will provide dry weather Fri-Sun, with a pretty good warming trend over the weekend.
151 PM EST Tue Feb 15 2022 Southerly flow will set up over the Ohio Valley today and bring in significantly warmer air to the region.
Moisture return continues as high pressure builds along the E Coast leading to blustery E'ly winds this afternoon along with an increase in low-level cloudiness pushing inland. Marine conditions continue deteriorating as high pressure along the E Coast builds producing increasing E'ly winds and building seas today into Wed.
326 PM EST Tue Feb 15 2022 Dry weather will continue tonight and Wednesday as high pressure moves east. Windy conditions are forecast for Wednesday ahead of potent low pressure.
1155 AM CST Tue Feb 15 2022 Low pressure has moved into the western Dakotas.
This is because a short wave trough moves over eastern Oregon bringing strong northerly winds in its wake. There is a high chance that winds approach advisory speeds across the higher terrain (like Winter Rim) and we will be further evaluating if these winds will impact any portion of highway 31; if an advisory is needed it will come with the afternoon forecast update. A drier air mass will allow ceilings to improve in those areas around midday Wednesday, while the lower conditions likely last most of Wednesday morning north of the Umpqua Divide and over to the coast.
1030 AM MST Tue Feb 15 2022 Current surface map places low across south-central Montana with warm front across northeast Wyoming into southwest South Dakota. Water vapor imagery shows upper trof stretching from the northern Rockies into the Great Basin. For today, upper trof continues to stretch/split. Weaker northern stream trof moves into the Northern Plains today. Warm boundary layer profiles support highs in the upper 50s along the Nebraska border this afternoon, while northwest South Dakota will struggle to reach the lower 40s. As southern stream trof moves into the plains Wednesday, weak isentropic lift/upslope flow may result in a light dusting of snow over portions of northeast Wyoming into southwest South Dakota. After cooler temperatures Wednesday, a warm up is in store going into the weekend.
/This Afternoon/ The morning sfc analysis indicates that ridging has shifted well E of the region into the Gulf Coast states, with the pressure gradient tightening a bit to the W over the Srn Plains resulting in an increased Srly low level flow especially over E TX/SE OK.
A strong short wave rounding the base of a trough on Wednesday evening will prolong significant weather for the region. This system will represent more of a spring like system with a sharp dryline during the day and a Pacific cold front sweeping through in the evening.
Warmer temperatures and dry conditions will likely return for the end of the week. Winds will gradually increase through the morning hours with sustained southerly speeds expected to range between 20 and 30 mph with gusts up to 55 mph, particularly for areas across the higher terrain.
321 PM EST Tue Feb 15 2022 Discussion/Marine/Hydro - Rain Wednesday into Wednesday night, Mixed precip late A northern stream low tracking across southern Canada on Wednesday trails a cold front across Lower Michigan and intersects deep moisture transport from the Gulf, with strong isentropic upglide resulting in rain blossoming along front Wednesday afternoon. The axis of heavier rain shifts south and east Wednesday night as the cold front advances.
115 PM EST Tue Feb 15 2022 High pressure is centered over the region. The high will move off the Mid-Atlantic coast Wednesday.
227 PM EST Tue Feb 15 2022 High pressure is centered over the region. The high will move off the Mid-Atlantic coast Wednesday.
This evening through tonight - Warm air advection today has provided a breezy, warmer, and mostly cloudy day.
Skies generally cleared behind last night's cold front which moved into Nevada. The upper low was in eastern California this morning, a little west of yesterday's forecast. On Wednesday, models bring a weak short wave trough southward into our area, with hi-res models indicating light snow showers in the Idaho mountains and possible flurries in the Idaho valleys, but little or none in eastern Oregon.
Southerly flow aloft is expected to advect a warmer airmass into the forecast area tonight. Cooler air aloft filters in behind the surface front and allow temperatures to fall into the teens and 20s.
Highs today will be in the low to mid 70s for most locations. As previously mentioned, even higher winds and gusts are possible across the higher elevations. (Wednesday night through next Tuesday) A more active weather pattern takes hold over the area by Wednesday afternoon/evening, with an upper-level trough quickly tracking southward and over the area by the evening hours. Ahead of the trough, expect strong and persistent southerly flow to filter in warmer air from northern Mexico. By the evening hours, the trough will likely be pushing through the western portions of the region, where we will likely see an increase in shear and instability, as well as some moisture tracking into the area.
1141 AM CST Tue Feb 15 2022 Latest surface analysis this morning showed high pressure centered over the Great Lakes with a front extending from Oklahoma through the Mid South. This front will move north through the area today bringing much warmer air into the region.
623 PM EST Tue Feb 15 2022 High pressure is centered over the region. The high will move off the Mid-Atlantic coast Wednesday.
Wednesday the ridge will weaken over the area, as a strong short wave and associated cold front approach the region.
Gusty northerly winds will increase along the coast and across interior ridgetops tonight and Wednesday.
534 PM CST Tue Feb 15 2022 Strong southerly winds will gradually diminish late this afternoon into the evening as a cold front moves in from the northwest. With a mild stat to the evening and the expected timing of the cold front lows will not be overly cold, ranging from the teens north of I-90 to the 20s to the south. Confidence not very high however as forcing in the fairly shallow dendritic layer not too bad but moisture in the lower levels is pretty low. Forcing in the fairly shallow dendritic layer not too bad but moisture in the lower levels is pretty low.
626 PM EST Tue Feb 15 2022 Aviation - Rain Wednesday into Wednesday night, Mixed precip late A northern stream low tracking across southern Canada on Wednesday trails a cold front across Lower Michigan and intersects deep moisture transport from the Gulf, with strong isentropic upglide resulting in rain blossoming along front Wednesday afternoon. The axis of heavier rain shifts south and east Wednesday night as the cold front advances.
230 PM MST Tue Feb 15 2022 Snow will increase in coverage and intensity across northern areas this evening w/ the passage of the cold front, becoming more wide- spread by mid to late Wednesday morning as moist low-level upslope becomes established along & east of the Laramie Range. Still looks to be a mainly upslope event as the bulk of the dynamic support is expected to remain well to the south & west even though the trough appears to be slightly more in phase than previous days. 4 inch over the high- country and around 0. Model soundings suggest some threat for patchy freezing drizzle w/ saturation in the 0C to -10C layer, mainly between 09z and 15z Wed, but there may be enough saturation aloft to yield ice crystal growth for more of a wintry mix earlier on.
The cold front will move through the area this evening into tonight and bring much colder temperatures. Did trend a little cooler for low temperatures tomorrow across the northern Sandhills where some of the colder air will infiltrate the area, keeping temperatures in the mid to upper 20s.
/Issued 302 PM EST Tue Feb 15 2022/ This afternoon into tomorrow southwesterly flow aloft will be maintained across the area in advance of an upper level trough expected to move through the area later this week. In addition the SW flow aloft and increased moisture will aid in increased could coverage over the next 48 hours along with warmer overnight and high temperatures tomorrow.
A cold front will sweep through the region early Wednesday morning.
The closed low responsible for the gradient is currently situated over central California and is progged to start dropping more southeastward before reaching the Arizona border and making a definitive turn eastward later tonight. That's bad news for us as all the accompanying moisture with the low, including moisture from the Pacific, will generally remain to the south. Along with the low, an upper level trough, that will be in phase with the low, will approach from the northwest. Between these two features, a surface cold front and 700mb baroclinic zone will be the focus for precipitation. maybe up to 6 for the highest mountain elevations. By late tomorrow evening, the trough axis will have shifted to the Front Range as precip starts winding down. Northerly flow will also setup on the backside of the trough ushering in cooler air.