Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
WE ARE MOSTLY ZONAL WITH HIGH PRESSURE SITTING OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. THE CENTER OF THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE EASTWARD AND THE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM. PRESSURE RISES WERE NOTED TODAY BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT SLID THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. THIS IS WHY CONFIDENCE IS ON THE LOW END FOR PRECIP TONIGHT/TOMORROW. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER TOMORROW. AND OUR KANSAS COUNTIES WILL RANGE BETWEEN THE LOWER 80S AND LOWER 90S DEPENDING ON HOW THE BOUNDARY SETS UP. THE PATTERN ALOFT AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED PERIODS WILL BE FAIRLY ZONAL WITH A FLAT RIDGE ORIENTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE LIFTING NORTH FROM NORTHERN KANSAS INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA TUESDAY NIGHT. AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS BUILDS OVER THE ROCKIES WITH NORTHWEST FLOW SETTING UP ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
311 AM CDT TUE JUN 23 2015 ANALYSIS AT 2 AM SHOWS A 1020 MB HIGH OVER CENTRAL NEBRASKA BRINGING IN COOLER AND DRIER AIR WITH CLEARING SKIES.
AN ELONGATED RIDGE EXTENDED FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WESTWARD ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND INTO ARIZONA. EXPECT MORE SUNSHINE TODAY AND SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHERN ZONES AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST AND BRINGS A PUSH OF GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD. THE RIDGE WILL BECOME CENTERED OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A WEAK IMPULSE RIDING AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE WILL ADD TO THE DIURNAL HEATING INSTABILITY.
256 AM CDT TUE JUN 23 2015 THE SURFACE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL EARLY THIS MORNING THEN RETREAT NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT DURING THE DAY.
A very strong high pressure system will likely develop by the weekend.
310 AM EDT TUE JUN 23 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES LATE TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
WEAKNESS IN SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE SE WILL PERSIST WITH ONE HIGH CENTER OVER THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY AND ANOTHER OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH DIGS OVER THE EASTERN U. AS A RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN STATES.
WAS SUPPORTING A WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTHWARD THROUGH KANSAS. BEFORE THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA AS A WARM FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. 850 TEMPERATURES ARE PROGGED A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER WITH LESS MIXING TUESDAY. LEE TROUGH DEVELOPMENT WEDNESDAY WILL LEAD TO SLIGHTLY WARMING 1000-850 THICKNESSES AND STRONGER MIXING ONCE AGAIN.
316 AM PDT TUE JUN 23 2015 TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL THROUGH TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN.
THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY EASTWARD OVER THE FRONT RANGE ON TUESDAY. 75 INCHES OR GREATER IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ON WEDNESDAY AS MORE MOISTURE CONTINUES TO WORK ITS WAY AROUND THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED EAST OF THE DIVIDE. THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ELONGATES TOWARDS THE WEST AND FLATTENS KEEPING THE DEEPEST MOISTURE IN MEXICO AND NEAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO.
TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS HAS WEAK RIDGING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH 80 KT JET ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. HIGH PRESSURE IS LOCATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS. BRINGING INCREASING AMOUNTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND WARMER AIR BACK INTO THE AREA.
STILL TRACKING THE IMPULSE IN SOUTHWEST TEXAS AS THE RIDGE AXIS EXPANDS EASTWARD AND THE RESULTING FLOW TURNS IT INTO AN EASTERLY WAVE.
631 AM EDT TUE JUN 23 2015 SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TODAY, AS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH EASTERN CANADA. THIS SYSTEM WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE AREA, FOLLOWED BY A TRAILING COLD FRONT TODAY. FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO PRECIP JUST IN ONEIDA AND NRN ONONDAGA ASSOCIATED WITH WARM FRONT. LINE WELL AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT IN THE MIDWEST. WITH THE HIGH CAPE OVER 1K AND STRONG WIND FIELDS. THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH STARTING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHUTTING DOWN THE STORMS FROM NW TO SE.
126 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK EAST ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS KENTUCKY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN SATURDAY DRYING OUT THE REGION. THIS HIGH WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO NRN IL/IN ON SATURDAY. SATURDAY SHOULD BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER WITH HIGHS WILL BE 80. WHILE THE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE REGION. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S NE TO THE LOWER 60S SW. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS WITHOUT THREAT OF A THUNDERSTORM ARE IN THE FORECAST AS THE NAM HOLDS THE UPPER LOW FURTHER WEST THAN OTHER MODELS.
442 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015 A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING A PERIOD OF RAIN TO NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA AND SOUTHERN NEW YORK THIS MORNING WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS FARTHER TO THE NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK.
349 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015 ISSUED AT 1250 AM SAT JUL 4 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT PROVIDING FAIR WEATHER.
636 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015 ISSUED AT 1250 AM SAT JUL 4 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT PROVIDING FAIR WEATHER.
412 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015 WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVES TO OUR EAST THIS INDEPENDENCE DAY.
THE UPPER PATTERN WILL FEATURE A FEW LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGHS OR DISCRETE GYRES MEANDERING IN THE SHORT TO MID TERMS OF THE FORECAST.
300 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015 A BROAD VIEW OF THE CONUS REVEALS AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES SOUTHWARD TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. WITH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH TAILING WESTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE VEERED WINDS AT THE LOWER LEVELS MAY BE HINDERING DEVELOPMENT THE FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST OF THE UPPER TROUGH YOU GO. WITH THE HIGHEST NEAR PARIS. AND THE LOWEST NEAR LAMPASAS. ISOLATED STORMS MAY PERSIST INTO THE NIGHT ACROSS THE EAST AND NORTHEAST COUNTIES WHERE LIFT FROM THE TROUGH WILL BE STRONGEST.
337 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015 HIGH PRESSURE STILL IN THE AREA TO PUSH OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST TODAY. WITH WEAK WAA SO SHOULD SEE WARMER TEMPS TODAY THAN IN THE PAST FEW DAYS. STILL EXPECTING SOME OF THE SMOKE TO WORK ITS WAY INTO THE AREA IN THE HIGHER LEVELS MAY CREATE SOME HAZE AND AGAIN COULD IMPACT MAX TEMPS A BIT. AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT.
231 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE E CONUS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
As the high moves off toward the east on Sunday, southerly flow will return, along with the increasing heat, humidity, and chances for convection.
647 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE WELL OFFSHORE TODAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS TO OUR SOUTH AND COULD BRING A STRAY SHOWER TO THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY AND SOUTHWEST NEW HAMPSHIRE TODAY. A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRY WEATHER AND GRADUALLY WARMING CONDITIONS THROUGH MIDWEEK. ANOTHER PASSING TROUGH WILL BRING THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN MIDWEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND. UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST AND IS REPLACED BY AN UPPER RIDGE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE. AS THE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMING ALOFT AND EVENTUALLY AT THE SURFACE AS WELL.
ALL UNDER VERY DIVERGENT AIR ALOFT WITH THE STRONG UPPER RIDGE OVER W TX/NM AND A DEEP LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES STATES. LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WORK WEEK WITH THE DEPARTING NE TROUGH ALLOWING THE HOT AND DRY UPPER RIDGE OUT WEST.
649 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO NOSE IN AND PRECIPITATION WILL COME TO AN END EARLY. THIS HIGH WILL PROVIDE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVING SOUTH THROUGH THE NORTHLAND THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. THIS MAY HAVE IMPLICATIONS ON THE LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE IN CANADA WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION AND PROMOTE RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT DUE TO VERY LIGHT WIND SPEEDS AND CLEARING SKIES. LEANED ON THE COOLER MOS GUIDANCE. WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING HIGH PRESSURE. BUT IT WILL BE COOLER NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR DUE TO THE LAKE BREEZE. MAIN FOCUS IS ON LONG WAVE TROUGH THAT TRANSLATES ACROSS THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. DEEPENING INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER MANITOBA/HUDSON BAY SUNDAY.
AIDED BY 500 MB HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTHEAST OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY.
TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM TODAY AND TOMORROW AS 500MB HEIGHTS INCREASE AND WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY ON SUNDAY AS THE RIDGE MOVES EAST OF THE AREA.
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT 08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN MB WITH COLD FRONT INTO NORTHWEST MT. AND TROUGH INTO CENTRAL WY. ANY DIURNALLY DRIVEN ACTIVITY WILL MOVE EAST AS TROUGH MOVES EAST. COLD FRONT DROPS INTO FAR NORTHWEST REACHES OF CWA TOWARD MORNING WITH SHRA/TSRA CHANCES ALONG IT. COLD FRONT SINKS SLOWLY SOUTHEAST AS IT BECOMES PARALLEL TO UPPER FLOW AND SLOWS DOWN. RATHER STRONG INSTABILITY FROM 2- 4KJ/KG MLCAPE DEVELOPS AND OF COLD FRONT WITH MARGINAL 0-6KM BULK SHEAR FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. EXCEPT JUST ALONG/BEHIND COLD FRONT. HIGH POPS WARRANTED ALONG/SOUTHEAST OF COLD FRONT.
KEEPING THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING CHANCES WEST OF THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA BY LATE AFTERNOON. SATURDAY NIGHT THE COLD FRONT MENTIONED IN THE SHORT TERM DISCUSSION WILL LIKELY BE DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. AS THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION BREAKS LATER TODAY. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO COLD FRONT APPROACHING NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON.
/ISSUED 903 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015/ SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING WITH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. CONVECTION SHOULD BEGIN TO DWINDLE TOMORROW FROM THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES AROUND MIDDAY TO THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES BY EVENING AS UPPER LEVEL LOW SHARPENS IN THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THIS WILL PROVIDE A PERIOD OF SUBSIDENCE ON THE LOW'S BACKSIDE TO SLIDE OVER THE AREA.
441 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015 HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF THE AREA TODAY. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.
A FRONTAL TROF STALLED OVER THE MID ATLC/MID SOUTH CONTINUES TO KEEP THE ATLC SUPPRESSED OVER THE FL PENINSULA.
319 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY.
608 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015 SHOWER CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH TODAY AS AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE TROUGH SLIDES EASTWARD. BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL ENSURE A DRY AND SEASONABLY WARM SUNDAY.
Thunderstorms are expected to form over the higher terrain today, but should remain south and west of all area terminals. Morning analysis shows an upper ridge beginning to weaken to our west and a large scale trough stretched over the eastern U. At the surface, moist flow continues off the Gulf and will eventually help give us a good chance for rain once a cold front arrives. The better chance for rain today though will be over the higher terrain associated with a developing theta-e axis.
DIURNAL HEATING BENEATH LINGERING WEAK TROF ALOFT HAS RESULTED IN WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION WHERE AROUND 1000 J/KG OF MLCAPE RESIDES ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS. ELEVATED WARM ADVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT SHOULD FOSTER CONTINUED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS WITH THE MEAN FLOW ALOFT CARRYING SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY INTO FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS BY SATURDAY MORNING. STRONG TO SEVERE DIURNAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO THE EAST OF THE LEE SIDE SURFACE TROF OVER WESTERN KANSAS BY EARLY SATURDAY EVENING. WITH FORCING FOR ASCENT FROM THE APPROACHING UPPER TROF AND DECENT ELEVATED MOISTURE TRANSPORT POSSIBLY SUPPORTING A MORE ORGANIZED MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM. A WARMER AND WINDY DAY IS THEN EXPECTED ON SUNDAY.
/ISSUED 243 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015/ DEEP LAYER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE SOUTH FLORIDA WEATHER REGIME OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS IT REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA. THERE WILL BE SOME DAY TO DAY FLUCTUATIONS IN ITS STRENGTH AND THE EXACT LOCATION OF ITS AXIS AS SEVERAL MID LEVEL TROUGHS MOVE THROUGH A GENERAL CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE EASTERN U. AND OVER THE TOP OF THE UPPER RIDGE. STRONG MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U. ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WHICH WILL NUDGE THE MID LEVEL RIDGE A TAD TO THE SOUTH.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN WILL SETTLE INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES LATER IN THE WEEKEND. THE UPPER HIGH CENTERED OVER SOUTHWEST UTAH THIS EVENING WILL RECENTER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES LATER IN THE WEEKEND. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW THAT DEVELOPS ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE UPPER HIGH WILL BRING A SERIES OF WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCES NORTH ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN THIS WEEKEND. THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS BUILDING NORTHWEST BACK INTO THE BASIN WILL LIKELY LIMIT CONVECTION TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN MUCH OF THE DAY.
DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS MARGINAL A HEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER CENTRAL INDIANA.
LOW PRESSURE WILL RIDE ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE AREA TODAY. THE FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH AS A COLD FRONT INTO NORTH CAROLINA ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD SUNDAY AND MOVE OFF THE COAST SUNDAY NIGHT.
IT WILL COOL OFF TOMORROW 5-10 DEGREES THANKS TO SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR AND INCREASING CLOUDS AND STORMS.
301 AM PDT SAT JUL 4 2015 SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY OF THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A NEARLY STAGNANT WEATHER PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LOW SITS WELL OFF THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COASTLINE WHILE UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE FOUR CORNERS REGION.
JHM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO VERY GRADUALLY COOL DOWN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE UPPER LOW OFF THE COAST BEGINS TO SLOWLY APPROACH THE COAST.
HIGH PRESSURE HAS BEEN DISPLACED SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD TO SOUTHERN LOWER MI. 1005MB LOW PRESSURE IS MOVING EAST FROM THE SOUTHERN TIP OF JAMES BAY. SEVERAL TROFS EMANATE FROM THIS LOW. COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SLIP SOUTH ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MI. WARMER TEMPS ABOVE 640MB RESULTS IN A FAIRLY SKINNY CAPE (LI -1/-2).
SLIGHTLY WARMER SUNDAY WITH TEMPS LIKELY REACHING INTO THE MID-UPPER 80S AND POSSIBLY REACHING 90 IN A FEW LOCATIONS.
348 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015 AREA OF MID CLOUDS HAS MOVED OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO COOL INTO THE LOWER 60S. SOME PATCHY FOG WAS DEVELOPING IN THE LOW LYING AREAS AND RIVER VALLEYS AND IT SHOULD QUICKLY BURN OFF AFTER SUNRISE. TONIGHT THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS DURING THE EVENING HOURS THEN GRADUALLY VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. THETA-E AXIS NOSES INTO NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS AS THE LOW LEVEL JET VEERS LATER TONIGHT.
POSITIVELY TILTED MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TO OUR WEST-NW WITH MINOR PERTURBATIONS LIFTING NEWD IN THE SW FLOW ALOFT.
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WAS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. AND A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WAS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. THE BULK OF THE TROUGH WILL SHIFT EASTWARD THIS WEEKEND. BUT A SMALL PIECE OF IT WILL BE LEFT BEHIND AS AN UPPER LOW. THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL TRY TO MAKE MORE PROGRESS TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW WILL MOVE NE TOWARD KY TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.
AT 00Z SATURDAY A 500MB NORTH/NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WAS PRESENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES WITH ONE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW LOCATED OVER KANSAS. A SURFACE TO 850MB RIDGE AXIS WAS LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS. A LEE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN THE PRESENCE OF PERSISTENT, NORTHWESTERLY MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW. HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY, BUT PERHAPS SLIGHTLY WARMER. MUCH WARMER WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY AS LEE TROUGHING STRENGTHENS AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM.
One last much-warmer-than-normal day is in store for the Northern Rockies this 4th of July. At the same time, a backdoor cold front will sweep in from the northeast, causing an abrupt wind shift overnight. In addition to the cooler temperatures, showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms will track across the area, eventually clearing out from north to south in the afternoon. Central Idaho, on the other hand, will not experience much cooling as forecast models show the cold front will stall roughly along the MT-ID border.
WHILE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS SLOWLY EASTWARD. RESULTING IN AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S. DESPITE THE WARMER CONDITIONS. ONCE THE HIGH SHIFTS FURTHER EAST.
HIGH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL EXIT THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TODAY WITH A RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS WISCONSIN AND THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH WEAK 250 MB FLOW. A WEAK TROUGH AXIS /COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS NORTHEAST WISCONSIN BUT THAT WEAKENS WITH MAINLY A WEAK WEST FLOW INLAND AREAS. HIGH EXPECT DRY WEATHER SUNDAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. WITH HIGHS LIKELY A COUPLE TO FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN NORMAL.
620 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015 WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVES TO OUR EAST THIS INDEPENDENCE DAY.
A NEGATIVE TILT HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL LIE ACROSS THE LKN CWFA TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY. CONVECTION HAS BEEN INITIALIZING ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS BEFORE DRIFTING NORTHWARD LATER IN THE DAY. WITH LITTLE MOVEMENT OF THE RIDGE.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM HOWEVER COOLER NEAR AREAS OF RAIN TODAY AND SUNDAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NORTH TX/OK BORDER WILL BUILD BY MID WEEK. WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL COME WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS FROM THE LOW TO MID 90S. BERMUDA RIDGE PATTERN TO MAINTAIN LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD.
Morning analysis shows an upper ridge beginning to weaken to our west and a large scale trough stretched over the eastern U. At the surface, moist flow continues off the Gulf and will eventually help give us a good chance for rain once a cold front arrives. The better chance for rain today though will be over the higher terrain associated with a developing theta-e axis.
RELEVANT PORTION OF PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS: VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL MUCH OF THE NIGHT BEFORE THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INITIATES A STRATUS DECK PRIOR TO SUNRISE. VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL MUCH OF THE NIGHT BEFORE THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INITIATES A STRATUS DECK PRIOR TO SUNRISE.
111 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE MAINLY FAIR WEATHER AND SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN WILL SETTLE INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES LATER IN THE WEEKEND.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AT PRETTY MUCH ALL TERMINALS TODAY, WITH THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE AT DHN AND ABY. EMBEDDED WITHIN THE BROAD EASTERN CONUS TROUGH, A +PV ANOMALY IS FORECAST TO EXIT THE PLAINS AND ROLL ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TODAY, REACHING THE SOUTHEAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON. AT THE SURFACE, THE LOCAL AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.
327 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015 THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EASTWARD TODAY AND TONIGHT. BUT AT THE SAME TIME THERE IS STILL SOME MOISTURE WITH MODEST PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES UNDER THE RIDGE. THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO HOLD IN PLACE AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING LEE TROUGH. CONVECTION WILL DECREASE RATHER QUICKLY THIS EVENING WITH THE WARMER AIRMASS ALOFT. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO WESTERN COLORADO AND A STRONGER TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. WILL BUMP THE POPS UP TO LIKELY IN THE HIGH COUNTRY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN THE AFTN SHOW MAINLY MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WITH DRIER AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS AT DENVER WITH CAPES OF 150-300 J/KG.
The synoptic pattern this morning features a general trough across the eastern CONUS due to a large upstream ridge across the west coast. The radar is finally quiet early this morning as a mid-level trough pushing through the area has shunted the better moisture transport off to the east/southeast. Temperatures will be dependent on convection, but highs today and tomorrow should climb into the low to mid 80s, with overnight lows tonight in the mid to upper 60s.
COUPLED WITH A LARGE EASTERN PACIFIC TROF AND CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDING INTO BAJA CA AND SOUTHERN CA. AND A 300/250 MB ANTI-CYCLONE CENTER IN NORTHEAST AZ THAT RESULTED IN DAILY UPPER LEVEL DEFORMATION IN NORTHERN/EASTERN AZ.
338 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015 SHOWER CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH TODAY AS AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE TROUGH SLIDES EASTWARD. BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL ENSURE A DRY AND SEASONABLY WARM SUNDAY.
511 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO NOSE IN AND PRECIPITATION WILL COME TO AN END EARLY. THIS HIGH WILL PROVIDE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY.
126 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015 LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH AREA TONIGHT.
THE UPR FLOW ACRS NOAM IS IN THE PROCESS OF READJUSTING TO THE WWD SHIFT OF AN UPR ANTICYCLONE INTO THE GULF OF AK REGION. THE NEW PATTERN WL FEATURE AN UPR TROF OVER CENTRAL CANADA.
410 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015 THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN EARLY THIS MORNING WAS COMPRISED OF UA TROUGHINESS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND UA RIDGING ACROSS THE SRN ROCKIES. WITH THE CENTER OF THE UA RIDGE NOTED WEST OF THE FOUR- CORNERS REGION. EMBEDDED IMPULSES WITHIN THE SAID FLOW ALOFT COUPLED WITH AN OLD COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS THE PANHANDLES HAS RESULTED IN A CLUSTER OF STORMS WHICH INITIATED ACROSS THE OK PANHANDLE YESTERDAY EVENING. THE UA RIDGE IS PROGGED TO SHIFT EWRD TO ACROSS CENTRAL/ERN NM BY LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING.
(Sunday and Sunday Night) The conditions aloft and in the low levels will be unfavorable for convective development.
332 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015 A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE HOLIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND THE LOW SHOULD CLEAR ON THE PRECIPITATION IN TIME FOR MOST FIREWORKS SHOWS SATURDAY NIGHT. SUNDAY LOOKS FAIR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. LATE TONIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE CONFINED TO THE SRN TIER AND NE PA AS A WEAK MID LEVEL WARM FRONT AND SHORT WAVES DRIVE THE ACTIVITY.
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE BROAD EASTERN CONUS TROUGH, A +PV ANOMALY IS FORECAST TO EXIT THE PLAINS AND ROLL ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TODAY, REACHING THE SOUTHEAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON. AT THE SURFACE, THE LOCAL AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.
INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH UPPER RIDGE GRADUALLY FLATTENS ON SUNDAY AS DISTURBANCE OVER AZ ROUNDS THROUGH THE UPPER RIDGE AT THE SAME TIME THAT UPPER TROF IN CANADA MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER. SFC LEE TROFFING WILL HELP DECREASE SFC DEW POINTS ACROSS THE PLAINS.
ZCZC CRWWRKAFD 040810 TTAA00 KCRW DDHHMM 412 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015 WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVES TO OUR EAST THIS INDEPENDENCE DAY.
304 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE WELL OFFSHORE TODAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS TO OUR SOUTH AND COULD BRING A STRAY SHOWER TO THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY AND SOUTHWEST NEW HAMPSHIRE TODAY. A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRY WEATHER AND GRADUALLY WARMING CONDITIONS THROUGH MIDWEEK. ANOTHER PASSING TROUGH WILL BRING THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN MIDWEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND. UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST AND IS REPLACED BY AN UPPER RIDGE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE. AS THE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMING ALOFT AND EVENTUALLY AT THE SURFACE AS WELL.
356 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015 BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. OPTED ONCE AGAIN FOR THE COOLER GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS WHICH THIS CYCLE IS A NOD TO THE MAV NUMBERS.
A COUPLE OF UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WILL HEAD THIS DIRECTION FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO OUR WEST WILL BREAK DOWN SOME AND BROADEN. THE PANHANDLES WILL BE MORE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN AND MOVE BACK FURTHER WEST BY SUNDAY NIGHT.