Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Dry surface cold front was pressing south across the southern Florida peninsula with a cooler and drier NW flow advecting across the local forecast area with high pressure building NW of our region. while the 850 mb trough axis will meander across the deep south through Thu afternoon which will continue waves of low clouds over the area through midday Thu. Precip not expected tonight with the low level trough given such a dry airmass above 3. Low temps were on track to fall into the low/mid 40s across inland SE GA to the low 50s across NE FL and the Atlantic Coast under mostly to partly cloudy skies.
With clear skies across these areas, temperatures trending slightly cooler than expected.
That said, cloud streets off the lower Keys could trigger a few showers in the Gulf waters north of the lower Keys. Southeast winds from 10 to 15 knots can be expected over the nearshore waters through this afternoon, with winds near 15 knots possible in the Florida Straits mainly south of the lower Keys.
1230 PM EDT SAT JUN 4 2016 Warm and dry with partly sunny skies with high pressure in place through the remainder of the daylight hours Saturday.
This boundary is expected to become the effective wind shift/prefrontal trough into the morning hours. Deep northwest flow will develop over the Midwest around a large upper level closed low over the Great Lakes and southeast Canada. With warming mid levels there really aren't signals for convection late in the week despite warmer and more humid sfc/low level air advecting northward.
100 PM EDT SAT JUN 4 2016 Showers and thunderstorms will develop this afternoon and continue through Sunday as low pressure moves a cold front through the region. Showers and thunderstorms will increase this afternoon as an approaching upper trough begins to shift east. The best severe risk will lie to the east of the ridges, but a few more downpours will remain possible.
/issued 350 AM CDT SAT JUN 4 2016/ Early morning temperatures are in the low 70s across the Midsouth under cloudy skies. A deep trough remains in over the Mississippi River valley. This low will slowly sink to the south over the next 24 to 48 hours. and the mean trough will shift slowly to the East. West of the axis of the trough.
A cooling trend will begin near the coast today and spread inland by Sunday as an upper level low pressure system approaches the coast and onshore flow increases.
Water vapor imagery and RAP H5 analysis indicated an open upper low over SE TX beginning to phase with an upper low currently churning west of the Great Lakes region. High pressure prevailed to the east/west of these features, making a pinwheel effect of sorts for the local CWFA. Generally scattered showers and storms are lingering across the area at the moment, but additional development is expected later this afternoon and especially this evening as a surface cold front (currently draped across the eastern Central Plains) meanders SE through the night. Since freezing levels/wet bulb zeros are arnd 12000 ft, the chance of large hail looks minimal attm. After midnight the closed upper low, now over TX, will phase with an upper trof to the north.
A stronger cold front will approach later this evening to help drive precip south through the state ahead of the front. The pesky upper level low that has brought scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms for the last several day should continue retreating south towards the Texas Gulf Coast through the weekend. another upper level system over the Northern Plains will help drive a cold front through the state later today and Sunday as it tracks towards the Great Lakes.
622 AM CDT SAT JUN 4 2016 The upper low near Baudette will slowly propagate east through the period. although with upper level low further east showers should be limited to east of the valley.
Cold front remains well west of Middle Tennessee this morning, extending from the Corn Belt into the southern Plains, with the upper trough situated just east of the surface boundary. Low height center is rotating over eastern Texas, with abundant moisture circulating around the low and a moisture plume running northeastward all the way to the Ohio Valley. Look for the surface flow and upper trough to push through on Sunday, thereby ushering in a long period of dry, cooler weather.
745 AM EDT SAT JUN 4 2016 Moisture will circulate into the forecast area on the backside of high pressure centered off the southeast coast and ahead of a cold front slowly approaching from the west.
However, the closed upper low will open up into a long wave trof as it reaches western Wisconsin late this afternoon. A northwest flow establishes itself over the region behind the departing upper trof. On Sunday, the next closed low drops southeastward through northwest Ontario. Meanwhile, a cold front will move through the region.
For Sunday the low level flow will become more south to southwest with deeper moisture, precipitable water climbing to around 2 inches, overspreading the area. High temperatures on Sunday will range from the mid to upper 80s close to the coast to the lower 90s inland with heat indices around 100.
Over the west will remain another story, where ridging will take hold at the sfc and aloft with PW values near 0. The warmest day looks to be Sunday, with highs rising into the low 80s for most locations.
806 AM EDT SAT JUN 4 2016 Showers and thunderstorms will return again this afternoon and continue through Sunday as low pressure moves a cold front through the region. Showers and thunderstorms will increase this afternoon an an approaching upper trough begins to shift east. The best severe risk will lie to the east of the ridges, but a few more downpours will remain possible.
Showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue to become more widespread across Central Indiana today as a warm front pushes farther north. The activity will be further enhanced by a cold front on Saturday night. The cold front will move through the area quickly and exit early Sunday morning, but lingering showers will continue on Sunday as an upper low remains situated over the Great Lakes Region.
The mean layer 500-1000 mb ridge axis extended across north-central Florida. High temperatures will warm into the lower 90s under humid conditions with dew points primarily in the lower 70s.
1043 AM EDT SAT JUN 4 2016 Aviation sections updated Showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue to become more widespread across Central Indiana today as a warm front pushes farther north. The activity will be further enhanced by a cold front on Saturday night. The cold front will move through the area quickly and exit early Sunday morning, but lingering showers will continue on Sunday as an upper low remains situated over the Great Lakes Region.
Overnight satellite and radar shows an upper low over Texas pushing moisture into the southeastern US where slight surface convergence is allowing light showers to progress through the western and southern portion of Central Alabama. This will allow the 850 low to weaken and open up into a trough, thus giving us a slight reprieve early this evening.
Heights will rise today as an upper-level ridge continues to build over the area. Winds will be generally light as the ridge aloft inhibits the formation of any strong pressure gradients at the surface.
552 AM MDT SAT JUN 4 2016 The weekend remains dry with warming temperatures as the high amplitude upper ridge remains in place over the western United States and an area of high pressure at the surface drops south through the central high plains region on it's way to the southern plains by late Sunday.
708 AM EDT SAT JUN 4 2016 Aviation An area of weak low pressure over northeast Minnesota will strengthen and track slowly east northeast today and tonight.
Back to the northwest, a more robust upper level trough is moving into the Upper and Mid-Mississippi River Valley. With the high PW air, showers and storms will also produce heavy downpours with localized flash flooding possible as well. Chattanooga Airport, TN 88 69 82 64 / 70 80 80 30 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 88 69 80 62 / 50 80 80 40 Oak Ridge, TN 87 69 80 62 / 70 80 80 40 Tri Cities Airport, TN 87 67 79 59 / 60 70 80 40.
628 AM CDT SAT JUN 4 2016 Closed low over Minnesota with trough through Mississippi valley. Ridging from southeast conus through Great Lakes ahead of the closed low. Strong pronounced ridge over the western conus.
1034 AM CDT SAT JUN 4 2016 A cold front currently stretches from Quincy, Illinois to Tulsa, Oklahoma while a pre-frontal trough stretches from Farmington, Missouri to Harrison, Arkansas. /issued 350 AM CDT SAT JUN 4 2016/ Early morning temperatures are in the low 70s across the Midsouth under cloudy skies. A deep trough remains in over the Mississippi River valley. This low will slowly sink to the south over the next 24 to 48 hours. and the mean trough will shift slowly to the East. West of the axis of the trough.
High pressure aloft will bring another very hot day inland before weakening.
a low pressure system was pushing southeast through the Upper Midwest with a trailing cold front through Eastern Iowa. an upper level low positioned over the Texas Gulf Coast. Ahead of the cold front. mainly over Southeast Oklahoma into Northwest Arkansas as the cold front moves through the CWA. even though a cold front is moving through. have adjusted hourly pops and temps based on hourly trends and observations and added minor tweaks to afternoon sky/temp/wind/dewpoint grids based on the movement of the cold front.
Since freezing levels/wet bulb zeros are arnd 12000 ft, the chance of large hail looks minimal attm. After midnight the closed upper low, now over TX, will phase with an upper trof to the north.
1154 AM EDT SAT JUN 4 2016 Moisture will circulate into the forecast area on the backside of high pressure centered off the southeast coast and ahead of a cold front slowly approaching from the west.
A strong upper ridge will continue over the western U. The central axis of this ridge will run roughly from southern Utah to Vancouver Island today. Thus most of the interior Northwest will be under the subsident portion of the ridge with a fairly dry air mass. A heat advisory is in effect for the Gorge and will continue this highlight. Moisture looks to increase over southwest Oregon late afternoon and evening due to south flow pulling moisture associated with an upper low moving into California northward.
634 AM CDT SAT JUN 4 2016 Today will be highlighted by an upper trough of low pressure moving across the northern and central MS valley. The cumulus will erode this evening leaving clear skies for the rest of tonight and lows in the lower to mid 50s. Sunday looks to be a warmer day with optimal mixing and warmer thermal profiles, as highs climb into the upper 70s to lower 80s.
621 AM CDT SAT JUN 4 2016 Weak cold front moved through the CWA during the overnight hours, initiating a thin band of elevated convection along its leading edge. The upper level trough to the north will continue eastward through the Great Lakes region and a broad ridge will build into the western US placing the Central Plains in a northwest flow regime through the end of the upcoming week.
an upper trough will approach the Tennessee Valley increasing the coverage and intensity of the storms at all TAF sites.
UPPER LOW APPROACHING SOUTH TEXAS TO MOVE OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS SUNDAY. /issued 400 AM CDT SAT JUN 4 2016/ SHORT TERM (Today through Sunday): Models are in good agreement with the movement of the upper low through Sunday. Currently the center of the low is rotating over the Texas Hill country and continues to move SSW as deep ridge builds across the West. The low will be centered right over Deep South Texas Sunday. Forecast temps will be a bit below normal due to the the lower heights and thickness values along with high pops and clouds today and Sunday.
520 AM PDT SAT JUN 4 2016 The coastal marine layer will persist with high pressure overhead into Saturday for fair skies inland and hot conditions.
Models suggest IFR/LIFR conditions developing overnight ahead of a cold front that will begin moving into the Delta around day break Sunday morning.
TFJ Upper ridge building over the northern Rockies with trof moving into the upper Great Lakes. A weak wave drops across the Canadian prairies on Sunday pushing a backdoor cold front into northeast Montana. Main impact from this front will be a band of cloud and a little cooler temperatures for the northeast zones.
1108 AM EDT SAT JUN 4 2016 Showers and thunderstorms will return again this afternoon and continue through Sunday as low pressure moves a cold front through the region. Showers and thunderstorms will increase this afternoon as an approaching upper trough begins to shift east. The best severe risk will lie to the east of the ridges, but a few more downpours will remain possible.
806 AM EDT SAT JUN 4 2016 Showers and thunderstorms will return again this afternoon and continue through Sunday as low pressure moves a cold front through the region. Showers and thunderstorms will increase this afternoon as an approaching upper trough begins to shift east. The best severe risk will lie to the east of the ridges, but a few more downpours will remain possible.
Upper level ridging continues to build over the Northern Rocky Mountain region for mostly clear skies and very warm/hot temperatures. A high pressure ridge will keep the airmass dry and stable except for a slight chance of showers or thunderstorms over extreme Southwest Montana.
1003 AM EDT SAT JUN 4 2016 The pattern aloft this morning features a ridge over the southwest followed by two troughs: one near the Great Lakes and another cut off over eastern Texas. Another ridge resides over Florida, with a southwest to west flow aloft over the region. At the surface, the ridge axis is over the northern part of the peninsula, setting up a relatively light southeasterly wind flow that will allow the west coast sea breeze circulation to develop and make its way inland, with scattered showers and thunderstorms developing. Winds will increase out of the south as a developing area of low pressure makes its way into the southern Gulf of Mexico.
Upper level wise the period will begin more zonal overall and transition to a more subtle ridging pattern by Thursday. This as a ridge axis across the Plains and Midwest progresses east.
Drier air in the lower and mid levels is on our doorstep, sampled by this morning's RAOB in NASSAU and by satellite derived sources courtesy of CIMSS. KBYX radar detects a limited swath of widely scatttered showers pushing through the lower and middle keys and the coastal waters south of the island chain. Surface wise, a broad western Atlantic ridge is nosing into south Florida and the Florida Straits, resulting in mostly southeast winds of 10 knots or less on our marine district.
Temps are falling into the lower 40s and upper 30s for most locations, although readings are still hovering around 50 degrees in MBG thanks to the cloud cover. High pressure will move off to the east today, with southerly winds increasing as low pressure already begins to approach the area.
620 AM CDT WED SEP 14 2016 Upper ridging will move across the forecast area today, helping to bring a fairly benign day weather wise to this area. Because of this, do not have high temperatures any warmer in our far south when compared to our northern zones. Tonight, a well advertised upper trough of low pressure will continue to move slowly eastward centered generally over the Rockies. Ahead of this trough, a leading short wave will eject northeastward into the central plains and into our forecast area late tonight. In addition, it is very stable in the lowest 3km of the atmosphere, with conditional instability existing above 700mb. With the lack of deep moisture profile, as well as unfavorable instability in the lowest 3km, likely pops are not warranted yet for the tonight period.
Expect drier, cooler and breezy conditions today as a storm system moves away from the state. A low pressure system was centered over nw Utah this morning. Forecast models show the upper low to move further away from us.
An upper low will lift northeast across southern Idaho today bringing a cool westerly flow to the region.
948 AM MDT WED SEP 14 2016 Upper level low centered along the NV/UT/ID border this morning will spin northeast across SE Idaho today spreading clouds and precipitation across SW MT.
Another hot and humid afternoon is expected with high temperatures topping out in the lower to middle 90s. /issued 306 AM CDT WED SEP 14 2016/ Temperatures running a few degrees warmer than 24 hours ago. Upper level high pressure from the Plains to the Mid Atlantic Coast will keep temperatures well above normal.
A weak cold front will sag across the area with a few showers and storms devloping during the afternoon.
A ridge of high pressure will build back north of the waters for the weekend bringing a return to easterly flow with afternoon sea breezes near the coast.
Northern Alabama and Southern Middle Tennessee are under the influence of a ribbon of high pressure. To the southeast of this ridging and at the surface, Tropical Storm Julia is moving slowly off to the north/northeast. In fact, many times this enhances surface and upper level ridging to the west and northwest of a tropical system. Northwest of this ridging, a very slow moving frontal boundary is in place over the Midwestern CONUS. Given temperatures already in the lower 80s (85 at the Huntsville Airport), raised high temperatures west of I-65 into the 93 to 95 degree range despite expected cloud cover.
Have left the TAF sites SCT this morning as flow more ELY in the lower levels.
An upper level trough moving towards the Four Corners region will keep the flow over the Panhandles out of the southwest through Thursday.
This troughiness will begin to move northward and inland Thursday afternoon.
637 AM CDT Wed Sep 14 2016 Models are having a hard time with the low VFR cloud deck over southwest and south central ND. Today is a transition period and will be quiet with temperatures about 10 degrees warmer than yesterday.
/issued 306 AM CDT WED SEP 14 2016/ Temperatures running a few degrees warmer than 24 hours ago. Upper level high pressure from the Plains to the Mid Atlantic Coast will keep temperatures well above normal.
A weak cold front from southwest/south-central to northeast Oklahoma is becoming more and more difficult to identify as it washes out. Ceilings will rise slowly this morning as daytime heating mixes the lower atmosphere. /issued 343 AM CDT WED SEP 14 2016/ A weakening cold front across central and northeast Oklahoma will continue to become more and more diffuse with time.
812 AM EDT Wed Sep 14 2016 A cold front will bring scattered showers and thunderstorms to the region today. A cold front will cross the region today, bringing the chance of rain back into the forecast. This portion of the forecast should be dry with high pressure across the region.
853 AM EDT WED SEP 14 2016 A cold front will cross the area today then move east tonight.
Low clouds are returning to the coast this morning for cooler coastal temperatures this afternoon.
temperatures are ranging in the lower to mid 50s under a veil of low clouds. patchy fog/drizzle is developing in addition to the low clouds. ridge axis will begin to shift east of the forecast area this morning. With the shift of the ridge to the east thru the day. The combination of this upper system and lee-side trough will move eastward into the Plains region overnight. Looking for temps today to range in the 70s increasing to the lower 80s by Thursday.
932 AM EDT WED SEP 14 2016 A weak cold front crosses tonight. High pressure passes to the north Thursday.
1033 AM EDT WED SEP 14 2016 A weak cold front will sag south through the region later today.
627 AM CDT WED SEP 14 2016 Latest water vapor imagery and RAP analysis shows large mid-upper level low centered over the Great Basin. Uncertainty remains on coverage of showers and thunderstorms late Thursday morning and how much destabilization can occur toward peak heating ahead of the approaching cold front. Strong to severe storms are not out of the question late Thursday afternoon across central Nebraska and into our western counties which could then spread east across the entire forecast area Thursday night as the cold front slides east overnight.
955 AM EDT Wed Sep 14 2016 A cold front will move through the region today. High pressure and dry conditions will be in place for Thursday. As a weak cold front moves through the area today, isolated to scattered shower and thunderstorm activity will develop. Dry conditions and high pressure will be in place for Thursday.
Moisture wrapping around upper low over eastern ID will keep showers and possibly thunderstorms over the west-central Idaho mountains, and central Snake Plain to the ID/NV border. An area of rain will rotate cyclonically around an upper level low centered in south central Idaho this morning. The low will move northeastward today and will be out of the area on Thursday. Cooler temperatures will continue today, especially in areas where it is raining.
Weaker flow aloft exists across the central TN valley, as the region remains beneath a broad subtropical ridge extending from northern Mexico eastward into the southwestern north Atlantic. Within a weakness in the ridge, T. The forecast area will remain beneath the subtropical ridge aloft, with weak steering currents and essentially no mid-level forcing for ascent as the vorticity associated with Julia is forecast to shear apart and shift east-northeastward under the influence of a northern stream trough digging southeastward across New England and offshore. At the surface, the low-level circulation of Julia is progged to drift northward through Thursday, while gradually evolving into a post- tropical cyclone.
1128 AM EDT Wed Sep 14 2016 A cold front across southeast Ontario early this morning will sweep across the North Country during the day today, bringing mostly cloudy conditions and a period of rain showers and isolated thunderstorms. A northwesterly wind shift will bring noticeably cooler air into the region tonight.
1021 AM EDT WED SEP 14 2016 Upper level ridging across the area will keep conditions mostly dry today. Temperatures will warm into the upper 80s and low 90s with the higher upper level heights. Have continued with a slight chance for shower/storms mainly over the higher terrain but lowered PoPs for most valley locations based on radar and Hi-Res model trends. Chattanooga Airport, TN 92 69 93 70 / 10 10 10 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 90 66 92 68 / 10 10 10 10 Oak Ridge, TN 90 66 92 69 / 10 10 10 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 87 62 89 63 / 20 10 10 10.
745 AM EDT WED SEP 14 2016 Limited moisture will stream northeast from the Ohio Valley today ahead of a weak cold front, which will push southeast from the Great Lakes and cross the region this afternoon and evening.
high pressure will continue to dominate area weather for a quiet 24 hours with a few afternoon CU.
736 AM EDT WED SEP 14 2016 Aviation Showers are possible into mid morning then skies will clear as cooler and drier air move into the area thanks to a large high pressure system that will move overhead tonight then move east of the area Thursday.
TFJ Upper low over the Great Basin expected to lift northeast into the Dakotas through the end of the week. Models in general agreement with bringing the low across eastern Montana tonight before moving it into North Dakota by Thursday afternoon. Showers across southern Idaho and Wyoming will slowly spread north today as the low advances. As the low begins to move east on Thursday and flow turns north, dry air will be pulled out of Canada into eastern Montana.
Elsewhere skies remain clear with max temperatures a couple of degrees cooler on average for most interior locations compared to yesterday. a thermal trough will deepen along the southern coast Thursday with increasing northerly winds south of Cape Blanco.
The cool upper low pressure system that has been bringing the unseasonable temperatures is now moving into the Rocky Mountains. Building high pressure will bring highs about 5 to 8 degrees warmer than yesterday, reaching the low to mid 80s across the Valley.