Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Upper low is spinning over Arizona. Jet streak will move around the upper low overnight and pass over the forecast area. This is the first snow event of the season and there are likely many hunters and other outdoor enthusiasts over the higher mountains. --PGW-- Thursday Night and Friday An upper level low continues to propagate to the west of our region and will be over Utah by Thursday. The cyclone will continue to propagate northeasterly and will be wrapped up in the next low pressure system's flow. Moist upslope flow at the surface will moisten the lower levels and enhance precipitation across the region. The higher terrain, though, should still see showers throughout the day.
Temperatures ranged from cooler 45F at Macomb, Galesburg and Lacon which were on the edge of these clouds, to milder lower 60s along highway 50 in southeast IL. 08Z/3 am surface maps shows 1026 mb high pressure over western Nebraska and ridging eastward into northern MO and western Great Lakes. NNW winds on east side of this ridge is filtering in cooler more fall like air into central IL. The fairly strong short wave trof moves across the great lakes and into the upper ohio river valley on Friday keeping its showers ne of IL along with the brunt of its CU/SC clouds. Even a bit cooler Fri night with lows in the mid to upper 40s.
157 AM EDT Thu Sep 28 2017 A cold front passes during the early morning hours.
Cold front has pushed through the area, with the main evidence being that pressures have started to rise across all of the forecast area. Temps through Friday will run about 15 degrees cooler both day and night, which is actually only a couple degrees below normal for late September.
the main weather feature this TAF period will be the approach of a rather weak cold front Thursday/Thursday night.
310 AM EDT Thu Sep 28 2017 Much cooler airmass now in place over the Great Lakes Region, as 00z GRB sounding indicated an 850 MB temp of 2 C. Satellite imagery does show extensive Lake Michigan stratus within the ridge axis early this morning, and expecting some of these clouds to continue to work southeast today, or certainly a diurnal flare up by noon, as even RAP soundings indicating saturation/near saturation at the top of the boundary layer. Respectable 850- 700 MB theta-e Ridge axis/moisture axis to swing through southern Lower Michigan late tonight, as PW values increase toward 1 inch.
High pressure will build over the Great Lakes this weekend providing a nice end to September with near to slightly below normal temperatures.
319 AM EDT Thu Sep 28 2017 High pressure builds in today and remains over the region through Friday.
300 AM EDT Thu Sep 28 2017 Much cooler and drier air will push into the area from the northwest today in the wake of a cold front.
A cold front will move through the region today. /26/ Today and Tonight: A surface cold front, moving through north MS at the moment, will continue its slow southward trek today and tonight and be completely through by sunrise Friday morning. While some convergence will be evident in the form of enhanced cloud cover, no convection is expected as ridge/warm air aloft inhibits significant vertical growth.
216 AM PDT Thu Sep 28 2017 High pressure and continue weak offshore flow will keep temperatures above normal through Friday.
The area will remain under CAA with nly flow through the lower levels. There is some differences among progd 850mb temps, with the NAM warmer than the GFS and ECMWF and the RAP between these. Believe current cloud cover will push south this morning as an upper trof drops out of Canada and approaches the region. Have trended temps today twd the warmer guidance, but given the questions on cloud cover, did not trend above. For tonight, trended aob the cooler guidance.
234 AM EDT Thu Sep 28 2017 Tropical Cyclone Maria off the Virginia coast early this morning, will accelerate eastward out to sea today into tonight. High pressure will build into the region this afternoon through Friday.
Cool and moist high pressure will push south into the state, with its center over the Red River Valley of ND/MN/Manitoba by daybreak Friday morning. Thus a bit cooler today wit highs from the mid 60s Turtle Mountains to the lower 70s southwest.
1158 PM MDT Wed Sep 27 2017 06Z TAF CYCLE Closed upper low currently centered over north-central AZ will continue to lift slowly newd overnight. Additionally, another backdoor cold front will drop into nern NM Thursday afternoon, helping to focus showers and thunderstorms from the north-central mts ewd to the TX line.
SHORT TERM (Now through Friday): Generally scattered showers and thunderstorms are forecast across the BRO CWFA through a majority of the short term forecast period as 500 mb low pressure over the Utah and Arizona border gradually moves northeast and over the Four Corners area and western United States.
332 AM CDT Thu Sep 28 2017 Today and Tonight A cold front will push through the area today. Upper level ridging spreads across the area as a thermal high shifts eastward through the Midwestern States.
548 AM EDT Thu Sep 28 2017 Much cooler and drier air will push into the area from the northwest today in the wake of a cold front.
530 AM EDT Thu Sep 28 2017 Dry and cooler weather is expected today under building high pressure. Shower chances return with a Friday cold front. Dry weather is expected today under building high pressure.
405 AM EDT Thu Sep 28 2017 Tropical Cyclone Maria well off the Virginia coast early this morning, will accelerate eastward out to sea today into tonight. High pressure will build into the region this afternoon through Friday.
Moisture was shunted ahead of the ridge, with thermal trough from the Great Lakes through IA/MO toward western OK/west TX.
Deep moisture, albeit somewhat reduced in the low levels, along with broad subtle isentropic ascent will result in showers with light rainfall amounts continuing throughout the day.
304 AM CDT Thu Sep 28 2017 Upper cutoff low is positioned across the Four Corners Region this morning, with little progression noted as the upstream ridge begins to build over the western high plains of Nebraska and Kansas. High pressure remains in control over northeast Kansas for the next 24 hours. Latest short term guidance is quite similar in high temps ranging from the low to middle 70s. Northeast winds become light and variable during the day as the ridge axis centers over the state. The axis of the upper low enters CO this evening with high plains convection anticipated over eastern CO and western KS. Much of the area remains dry and clear with morning lows falling into the low 50s.
Outside of some morning patchy fog, sunny skies and seasonal temperatures in to the lower 70s will continue through much of Friday thanks to high pressure firmly over the northern Rockies.
The high will slowly sag southeast into the area today and should help skies to clear. Highs this afternoon will warm into the lower to middle 70s as lows tonight drop into the lower 50s.
Weak upper level low spinning over the southwest Florida coast this morning. With light winds, and mid level ridging moving overhead, expect a very warm day with near record high temperatures.
The 11 pm subjective surface analysis showed a weakening baroclinic trough extending from NY through southeast TX In particular the southern portion of the trough had become ill-defined. It will be seasonably warm again with highs in the lower to mid 90s.
201 AM MDT Thu Sep 28 2017 07z surface analysis had weak sprawling high pressure over the CWA. Water vapour had upper trough over eastern North America with ridge over the far west and cutoff low near the four corners area. Today into Friday, upper low will move northeast undercutting ridge. Gradient increases Friday as lee trough develops supporting breezy areas.
As a result slightly cooler temperatures will occur over SW VA and NE TN. temperatures will be a few degrees cooler. A few showers will be possible mainly over the higher terrain along the mountains of TN/VA. Otherwise max daytime temperatures will be noticeably cooler than previous days particularly north of I-40 and at least a few degrees cooler south of I-40.
312 AM EDT Thu Sep 28 2017 Dry and cooler weather is expected today under building high pressure. Shower chances return with a Friday cold front. Dry weather is expected today under building high pressure.
119 AM EDT Thu Sep 28 2017 A cold front passes during the early morning hours.
The upper support continues to weaken behind the cold front as it continues to gradually sag south. Cooler and drier air will filter in behind the front, with temperatures in the mid 50s over northern AR, while 60s in the rest of the state.
309 AM EDT Thu Sep 28 2017 Much cooler, more seasonable temperatures, will be with us through the weekend.
An upper level ridge over the region today will shift east tonight and Friday ahead of an approaching Pacific cold front.
The much anticipated cold front is currently stretched across central KY approximately along a line from Bowling Green to Frankfort. The cooler air and significantly lower dewpoints are lagging the wind shift and front a bit. Significantly cooler weather is expected tomorrow with highs in the mid 70s. Upper level troughing will develop across the northeastern CONUS through the end of the week. A dry reinforcing front will move through on Friday bringing even lower dewpoints and cooler air for the beginning of the weekend.
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are forecast to continue tonight as a mid level vort max rotates around an elongated H5 ridge center.
Have a patchy frost mention in our usual cold spots, but not expecting the lower temps to be widespread enough to include any headlines at this point.
High pressure aloft and low level offshore flow will give Western Washington another unseasonably warm and sunny day today. An approaching cold front is expected to spread some light rain and much cooler temperatures to the area on Friday.
The upper low centered over northern Arizona this evening will track northeast across southern and eastern Utah Thursday, then continue on into southwest Wyoming Friday.
The weekend will be much cooler and breezy, with a few showers.
Rain is expected to develop across the CO front range/high plains tonight and progress eastward into western KS between 12-18Z Thursday as an upper level low tracks NE from the Desert SW to the 4-Corners region and mid-level warm advection strengthens downstream in CO amidst increasingly diffluent flow aloft and episodic DPVA attendant small amplitude waves ejecting NE into the high plains. Highs should range from the lower 50s in eastern CO (precip/evap cooling) to ~70F in the far east (Hill City) where precipitation will be lighter and onset later. An upper low lifts northeast from the desert southwest into the Rockies Thursday night and Friday, producing precipitation chances as it pushes northward.
Radar has been quite a bit quieter today, but looks to become active again later tonight through tomorrow as the upper level low centered over southwestern AZ and southeastern CA begins to lift more towards the 4 corners area and create a weak Rex block. The Rex block is quickly dispatched as the high pressure is absorbed into the flow and creates ridging in the northern Great Plains and south-central Canada.
A mid/upper level trough will deepen over the east coast of the United States, sending a cold front toward north Florida on Friday.
High pressure will keep dry weather and above normal temperatures across the area through Friday. A high amplitude upper ridge is continuing to build inland into the PAC NW while an upper low drifting northward across UT interacts with the ridge to maintain a dry northerly flow over our area this morning. While the low lifts northward, the northly flow will decrease and become more westerly as an upper trough approaches the PAC NW coast.
We have a ridge of high pressure dominating the weather pattern. The only fly in the ointment is the remnants of a closed low over the desert SW which is expected to drift north into our region late Friday leading to a few showers.
346 AM EDT Thu Sep 28 2017 Much cooler, more seasonable temperatures, will be with us through the weekend.
Ridge currently over the western Gulf and extending northeast into the Lower MS Valley will not move much through the rest of the week but should build east into the southeastern CONUS this weekend.
A weakening upper level low will move into the Northern Rockies during the short term period.
By 00Z, 850mb temperatures should be down into the lower teens. With clear and calm conditions, temperatures will drop down into the lower 50s, possibly upper 40s in some locales tonight.
112 AM EDT Thu Sep 28 2017 A cold front will push through the area late this afternoon and evening with clouds and perhaps a few showers. This front will usher in much cooler air, which will persist through the weekend. Cold front has already moved through Rochester and just beginning to encroach on N/W border of CWA and will be moving SE through the forecast area over the next few hours bringing cooler, drier weather. High pressure fading as a cold front approaches western NY and northwest PA. The cold front will finally kick it out Thursday. Late tonight before the deeper moisture leaves some lake enhanced showers are possible across the higher terrain of central NY. Flat trof over the area Friday as a strong short wave drops through the Great Lakes.
658 AM EDT Thu Sep 28 2017 High pressure will result in dry conditions and more seasonable temperatures today. Highs on Friday will generally be in the lower 70s.
Deep layer ridge was positioned from the TX coast to the TN River Valley and upper trof/low over the FL Peninsula. Despite the lower moisture profiles, the high resolution model guidance of the NAM-3KM, HRRR and WRF-ARW does show a few showers popping up over the interior eastern zones this afternoon as a frontal boundary sinks southeast into the area and may be enough squeeze out some precipitation. Another unseasonably warm day expected today with highs in the lower 90s, which look to approach or may set new record highs over a few areas mostly over the coast.
A low pressure system moving into Canada will usher in breezy southwest winds across the region this weekend.
Upper air analysis last evening showed a trough over the southwestern U. with a ridge over the southern Mississippi River Valley. At the surface, a cold front was stretched along our southern border. The upper level ridge will build to the east and push the trough to the northeast during this period. The threat for heavy rain should end for the entire CWA tonight with the drier air moving in and the upper trough moving away.
616 AM EDT Thu Sep 28 2017 Much cooler, more seasonable temperatures, will be with us through the weekend.
High pressure to become fully established across the region on Friday with northeast winds around 5 to 10 mph. High pressure to prevail through the weekend with highs in the low to mid 80s and lows around 60.
A cutoff Low Pressure system is currently located over Central Utah and is forecast to slowly wobble Northward to Western Wyoming during the day on Friday.
434 AM CDT Thu Sep 28 2017 Little change in the pattern aloft as the latest upper air analysis and water vapor imagery shows the region beneath a narrow ridge between upper lows over the eastern Gulf and near the AZ/UT border in the west. The sfc cold front remains north of the area this morning, extending from northern LA into east TX and southwest toward the southern TX plains. Ahead of the front, warm and muggy conditions continue with temperatures generally in the lower to middle 70s, and dewpoints in the lower 70s. 24 The cold front will slowly move southward acrs the area today and tonight, finally reaching the coast Friday morning. This, with limited support aloft due to continued ridging, will keep shower and tstm chcs on the low side, with activity generally isolated to widely sctd.
Main weather feature impacting the CWA tomorrow will be a longwave trough translating southeastward from Manitoba through the Great Lakes. In the lower levels, an attendant weak cool front will push southward through the CWA Thursday night. Friday should prove to be an exceedingly nice day as high pressure aloft moves through and a ridge of high pressure moves into MN. On Friday night both the ridge aloft and at the surface continue to shift east as a trough of low pressure deepens across the Northern Rockies.
This the result of the progression of building sfc and upper level ridging influences thru Sat night across our area. This drier wx pattern will also bring cooler temps and less humid conditions to the mid state region thru Sat night. As sfc front has finally pushed SE of mid state during these early morning hrs, the influences of this sfc CAA ridging pattern building out of the cntrl/nrn plains and Rockies, will come into play across the mid state region today. Lows tonight will be very close to seasonal normal values, mainly in the low to mid 50s. Friday afternoon highs will even be a few degrees cooler than those expected to be experienced today, as ridging influences from our west become even better established across our region.
/issued 250 PM CDT Wed Sep 27 2017/ An upper low remains over Arizona today with enhanced lift over the Lower Trans Pecos. Models are indicating that the heaviest rain will be across the Lower Trans Pecos today where the best lift is located. Temperatures will be colder today with the passage of a cold front and cloud cover staying across the area. The upper trough begins to lift northward on Thursday and upper lift decreases across the area. The upper trough continues to lift on Friday but upper lift still remains over Terrell County. Temperatures may be a little cooler on Friday due to cloud cover coming back over the area.
Mild temperatures are expected before the cold front pushes through. Increasing southerly winds and WAA will develop over western SD where highs should reach the lower 70s.
423 AM MDT Thu Sep 28 2017 Upper low over eastern Utah moving northward slowly this morning with an area of mainly light rain trying to cross into se Wy from northern Colorado at this time. This area eventually should cross into se Wy early this morning as the low continues to trek northward. Models continue to show the bulk of the pcpn staying over se Wy today and tonight, and mainly around the mtns from this afternoon onward as the upper low weakens some and drifts into sw Wy. The low continues to drift north Friday then opens into a trough Friday night in response to a larger system digging into the Pacific northwest.
311 AM CDT Thu Sep 28 2017 Today and Tonight: A surface cold front, moving through north MS at the moment, will continue its slow southward trek today and tonight and be completely through by sunrise Friday morning. While some convergence will be evident in the form of enhanced cloud cover, no convection is expected as ridge/warm air aloft inhibits significant vertical growth.
and Friday Weak surface ridging was over the forecast area early this morning, with patches of stratocumulus noted on satellite and observations. Canadian high pressure will arrive in the afternoon, bringing an end to the showers.
Leaned closer to the slightly warmer NAM today for highs today with plenty of sunshine and albeit weak, some mixing this afternoon.
The upper-deck low is encased by an upper-deck high covering most of Mexico & the western Gulf of Mexico & a strong upper-deck ridge punching N across Alberta. Fri-Sat Night: The negatively-tilted Pacific NW trof will continue to punch SE & should extend into the Great Basin late Fri Night/early Sat morning.
330 AM CDT Thu Sep 28 2017 Skies are mostly clear across the forecast area this morning with temperatures ranging from the the lower 60s to lower 70s. The cold front which moved through the region yesterday is across central Mississippi at this time. Cooler and drier air is pushing into the region.
/issued 244 PM CDT Wed Sep 27 2017/ A closed low over Arizona this afternoon will lift to the NNE the next 48 hours to a position over western Wyoming by end of day Friday with upper level ridging edging westward across Texas in response. Dry mid above 500 mb will move to the northeast from New Mexico in concert with the upper low with models confident this dry air spreading over the South Plains tonight.
439 AM MDT Thu Sep 28 2017 07z surface analysis had weak sprawling high pressure over the CWA. Water vapour had upper trough over eastern North America with ridge over the far west and cutoff low near the four corners area. Today into Friday, upper low will move northeast undercutting ridge. Gradient increases Friday as lee trough develops supporting breezy areas.
356 AM EDT Thu Sep 28 2017 High pressure will result in dry conditions and more seasonable temperatures today. Highs on Friday will generally be in the lower 70s.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop during the afternoon, and could cause reduced flight categories at any terminal through the early evening hours, though the highest chances will be over southwest Florida, around KRSW, KFMY, and KPGD.
Northern and portions of central Oklahoma are already experiencing VFR ceilings/visibility and the general trend at other sites further southwest should continue as drier air in the low levels infiltrates the area per short term model guidance.
122 AM EDT Thu Sep 28 2017 A cold front just south of the area will continue to move off to the southeast and cooler air will spread across the area. High pressure from the midwest will build over the region tonight and Thursday. A second cold front will drop across the region on Friday. Canadian high pressure will slide across the Great Lakes over the weekend. It now looks most of the area will remain dry as the next cold front and it's parent low will be a tad slower to arrive. The main s/w trough and associated surface cold front will push SE across the leri area Fri.
A low pressure system will bring a chance for showers and thunderstorms through Friday, primarily focused over the northern and eastern portions of the state. Low pressure was centered over southern Utah this morning, moving northward.
524 AM EDT Thu Sep 28 2017 High pressure, much cooler and drier air will build into the region today. An area of low pressure and its associated secondary cold front will cross the area Friday along with more widespread showers and a few storms, with even cooler air spreading across our region for the start of the weekend. A much cooler airmass settling in over the eastern great Lakes today as 850 mb temperatures forecast to fall to near +4 C. Satellite imagery does show extensive upper Great Lakes stratus within the ridge axis early this morning, and expecting some of these clouds to continue to work southeast today as cold air advection continues.
A cold front will cross the area Friday followed by high pressure from the northwest for the weekend. The Outer Banks will be a bit cooler with mid 80s. This will be the last really warm day, before some cooler and drier air arrives.
The weekend will be much cooler and breezy, with a few showers. The upper level ridge axis is over eastern WA this morning and will move east through the day. Tonight the ridge continues east as the upper level trough nears the west coast.
318 AM CDT Thu Sep 28 2017 Surface analysis has a ridge of high pressure extending from Nebraska northeastward into WI while a trough of low pressure was pushing southeast from the Dakotas into MN. will be watching a mid-level trough and surface cold front drop southeast across the area. Otherwise, plan on highs today in the middle 60s to the lower 70s. Clearing takes place after midnight as high pressure builds east out of the Plains.
Today Through Friday Night Cold front has made its way southeast of the state this morning, with north to northeast winds in place at the surface. Starting to see some of the drier, cooler air mass move into the state with ob sites as far south as KLIT showing dewpoints in the mid/upper 50s attm. Will continue to see high pressure move into the state throughout the day with northeast winds at about 10 mph today, gusty at times especially across delta areas.