Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
This will allow slightly drier air and cooler air over Iowa into the area early this morning which should act to improve visibilities after sunrise. Temperatures are expected to stay above freezing the rest of the night over the CWA where the drizzle is occurring, so do not expect any problems at this time. Went on the cooler side of temperature guidance today given the clouds and the cold air advection. Will see weak upper ridge build in through midweek with southerly flow to return to the region.
Freezing rain and sleet will continue over much of the area through the morning. and would expect the southern valley and southern plateau to reach temperatures above freezing by late morning. with the rest of the area experiencing temperatures above freezing through the early afternoon. Low lying areas and valleys would experience freezing temperatures longer due to lack of heating. Have kept the Winter Weather Advisory continuing for now to account for the light freezing rain and sleet expected through the next couple of hours. Chattanooga Airport, TN 40 37 53 44 / 70 40 10 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 40 36 52 40 / 60 40 10 10 Oak Ridge, TN 40 36 52 41 / 70 50 10 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 40 35 50 36 / 70 60 10 10 NC.
The warm temperatures will come ahead of a vigorous Pacific trough moving onshore over southern California.
Overall expect any bulk of the rain to shift more to the coast and any of the best PoPs over the next several hours to slowly shift into east-northeast Mississippi as the trough digs more into the Gulf. Moisture ascent and northeasterly flow aloft around the back of the trough will keep light rain showers & widespread clouds around through the course of the day.
An upper level high pressure ridge will spread east from the Rockies across the central Plains today and tonight, flattening out as it does. The high pressure moves off into eastern Kansas and Oklahoma today with lowering pressure in the lee of the Rockies. The downslope flow behind this trough should result in much above normal daytime high temperatures. Highs should range from around 60 in central Kansas to the low/mid 70s along the Colorado border.
The pattern aloft featured northwest flow across the Central Plains with an upper ridge axis over the Rockies, and as we head through the day, the upper ridge will migrate across our region.
Areas of dense freezing fog will continue across northern Nevada through the morning.
816 AM EST Mon Jan 8 2018 Low pressure will return wintry precipitation to the area today.
727 AM EST Mon Jan 8 2018 There will be increased moisture and a moderation in temperature associated with an onshore flow between the ridge shifting off the East Coast and low pressure moving from the Lower Mississippi River Valley into the northeast Gulf of Mexico through Tuesday. Upper trough will dig from the Mississippi Valley region today into the north-central Gulf Coast this evening. Temperatures tonight finally set to remain at or above freezing for entire cwa. Upper flow begins to flatten out across the cwa as the main upper low cuts off and moves into the northern Gulf of Mexico through the night. Tuesday and Tuesday night, best chance for rainfall will be across the extreme southern cwa, closer to the upper low moving through Florida.
Even Stanley is expected to have high temperatures above freezing, with Snake River plain temperatures well into the 40s. The cold front for this storm does not arrive until Tue night, and this is where some snow finally returns.
The upper level trough that brought the round precipitation to the region will exit to the east today. Temperatures will fall to near freezing in southeastern Kansas and far western Missouri where the sky will clear as well as the colder valleys of eastern Ozarks. The warming trend will continue into mid week as the southerly flow strengthens ahead of a pronounced upper level trough coming across Rockies.
Meanwhile, local radars are detecting widely scattered showers on the distant waters beyond 20 nm south of Dry Tortugas and the Seven Mile Bridge, with only a few showers elsewhere. Surface wise, a weakening high pressure cell (1030 mb) is located along the Carolina coast with a narrow ridge poking down the Florida peninsula. In addition, a broad area of low pressure (1013 mb) is located over Louisiana with a trough draped southward into the Gulf of Mexico. A massive mid and upper level trough reaching equatorward to the extreme southwest Gulf of mexico will move slowly eastward. Because of the approaching trough and high pressure along the Carolina coast sliding eastward, weak upglide below 700 mb will result in changeable skies.
1025 AM EST Mon Jan 8 2018 High pressure will continue to ridge across the area today as a low pressure system and cold front approaches the state from the WNW.
603 AM CST Mon Jan 8 2018 IFR/LIFR cigs with areas of FG have developed early this morning in wake of the SHRA that has now exited the region, and just ahead of a cold front that is making slow SE progress across Wrn LA/Scntrl AR attm. A cold front continues to progress eastward and was located from Lufkin TX, to Marshall TX, to just south of Arkadelphia AR, as of 10z.
Today Through Tuesday Night An upr lvl trof was movg thru the region early this mrng, with rainfall confined to central and eastern AR ahead of it.
Meanwhile, high clouds were beginning to stream over the area from the southwest ahead of a closed low off the coast of southern California. BUFR soundings for areas beneath stratus suggest drying in the lower levels during the morning, so expect cloud deck will break up by midday, or shortly thereafter. Despite increasing clouds, mid-levels of the atmosphere are dry beneath a transient ridge so don't expect any precipitation today. This changes tonight as the low approaches the southern California coast and moisture begins streaming over the area ahead of the system.
Temperatures across much of area along and north of a Newnan to Covington to Athens line are near or below freezing currently. This dry layer will indicates that initially wintry precip may briefly fall as sleet, however for the most part, profiles - assuming precip can reach the ground - support a rain or freezing rain through 18Z. After 16Z temperatures will support freezing rain mainly over portions of northeast GA. Overnight lows tomorrow should be above freezing at most locations with temperatures moderating into the 50s by tomorrow afternoon. A rather spring-like pattern develops through the middle and latter portions of the workweek as a deep/ sharp upper trough digs into the middle of the country.
532 AM CST Mon Jan 8 2018 As the upper trough that affected western Nebraska yesterday an upper ridge builds in from the west. Mostly sunny today with high temperatures in the 40s and 50s, cooler over snow fields in the eastern Nebraska Panhandle, western Cherry and Grant, Arthur, Keith, Perkins, Hayes, Frontier and Lincoln counties.
A cold front continues to push into the coastal plains early this morning.
345 AM MST Mon Jan 8 2018 Water vapor shows large amplitude ridge over the western CONUS with strong trof digging over the eastern Pacific. At the surface, lee trof is advancing through ern WY. Upper ridge will dominate today and Tuesday with highs in the 40s/50s both days, about 15-20F above average, and dry conditions.
323 AM PST Mon Jan 8 2018 Widespread precipitation through Tuesday with accumulating snow mainly limited to the higher elevations. Snow levels will lower somewhat by Tuesday afternoon as the closed low pivots toward SoCal, but heavier accumulations will likely remain above the main northern Sierra passes (I-80 & US-50).
Model guidance suggests potential for some coastal showers with coastal trough to affect our eastern counties, and have maintained low POPs there. Strong high pressure to the north will maintain a decent pressure gradient over the waters, resulting in elevated winds and seas.
Ridge axis over western Montana will slowly slide east resulting in a backing wind aloft. This will bring in some Pacific moisture to the mountains late tonight bringing a chance of snow showers in the high country.
An upper trough advancing into the western U. A slight chance of freezing rain exists in basins of northern Harney and Malheur county and far southwest Baker county Tuesday morning, though confidence on this is low as current inversion is quite shallow and may well mix out with onset of precipitation.
/issued 341 AM CST Mon Jan 8 2018/ A potent trough continues to move east toward the Lower Mississippi Valley early this morning. Strong forcing for ascent downstream from this trough and attendant isentropic ascent/warm advection are resulting in widespread rain showers across the Mid- South at this time.
407 AM MST Mon Jan 8 2018 Upper ridge over the area today will bring much above normal temperatures to the region. Upper ridge axis shifts east of the area tonight ahead of the next upper low projected to move onshore across the southern/central CA coast late tonight through Tuesday morning. Snow should start along the Continental Divide late this evening with a couple of inches possible across the higher elevations of the eastern San Juans and Sawatch range by early Tuesday morning.
542 AM CST Mon Jan 8 2018 Very few changes in the short term as temperatures begin to rise above freezing for most areas of southern Minnesota, and into west central Wisconsin this afternoon. The warmest temperatures will occur along and east of the Buffalo Ridge due to lack of snow cover and a downslope component enhancing the warmer temperatures. Slightly cooler air filtering southward across east central Minnesota and into west central Wisconsin tonight will allow temperatures to fall into the teens, with a few single digits in the typical drainage areas of west central Wisconsin.
Will need to monitor potential for fog tonight as well, as we see additional snow melt adding to the low level moisture.
404 AM CST Mon Jan 8 2018 The main concern this forecast iteration revolves around the potential for strong winds, fire weather, a strong cold front and perhaps a little light precipitation (maybe even of the wintry variety) all associated with a vigorous mid-latitude cyclone passage midweek. Aside from some passing high clouds, plenty of insolation and the southerly breezes will allow highs to rebound into the lower and middle 60s. The upper ridge will deamplify on Tuesday as the flow gradually backs to southwesterly ahead of the first significant southwestern upper low of the season. Attention will then turn to an upper low approaching via the Desert Southwest.
/issued 404 AM CST Mon Jan 8 2018/ The main concern this forecast iteration revolves around the potential for strong winds, fire weather, a strong cold front and perhaps a little light precipitation (maybe even of the wintry variety) all associated with a vigorous mid-latitude cyclone passage midweek. Aside from some passing high clouds, plenty of insolation and the southerly breezes will allow highs to rebound into the lower and middle 60s. The upper ridge will deamplify on Tuesday as the flow gradually backs to southwesterly ahead of the first significant southwestern upper low of the season. Attention will then turn to an upper low approaching via the Desert Southwest.
/Issued 213 AM CST Mon Jan 8 2018/ An upper level ridge of high pressure will move across the Panhandles today, so high temperatures are expected to be warmer than yesterday. The ridge flattens some on Tuesday and heights start to lower over the southern Rockies ahead of the next storm system. This will encourage a lee-side trough to strengthen, so this will bring southwest downslope winds across the Panhandles.
1027 AM CDT Sun Oct 29 2017 Clear skies and chilly temperatures continue across the region this morning, as high pressure at the sfc and nw flow aloft continue to dominate the region's weather. Upper-ridge to persist through Monday allowing for mostly clear skies areawide.
609 AM CDT Sun Oct 29 2017 Mild weather today ahead of a cold front which moves into the area this afternoon. The cold front also ushers in cooler temps, highs Monday only in the 40s again.
622 AM CDT Sun Oct 29 2017 Near-normal temperatures make a brief return today as surface flow returns to the south and warmer conditions build in from the west aloft; however, these milder temperatures will be pushed quickly to the south by another cold front late tonight. As has been the case with the previous fronts in this repetitive pattern, breezy northwest winds will follow the frontal passage, then the colder air will filter down ~24 hours later as the upper trough carves southward, making Halloween the coolest of the next several days.
Gusty northwest winds will be found behind the cold front. A strong cold front will create northweest winds 25 gust to 30 knots and seas up to 10 feet offshore producing hazardous marine conditions today into tonight and small craft should remain in port until conditions improve. The high pressure center is expected to move through the region Monday weaken then into the Western Atlantic by mid week with winds and seas subsiding and becoming NE-E. Strong Canadian high pressure will build into the region with a very dry and cool airmass.
1145 AM CDT Sun Oct 29 2017 Most locations are seeing low to mid 20s this morning with the center of the Canadian high pressure right over the eastern Ozarks. about 10 degrees warmer than yesterday.
27 is at the low for this time of year. A 105 kt jet max is at 200 mb from the base of the deep upper trough overhead. /issued 339 AM CDT Sun Oct 29 2017/ Strong cold air advection began yesterday as a cold front moved through and will continue to bring in the coldest temps to the area since last winter/spring today. The base of the very amplified upper level trough is currently moving across the CWA this morning. While this will lead to cold temps overnight, quickly ejecting upper trough will increase heights and keep lows from falling as much as this morning. The next few days will be fairly quiet as high pressure builds into the area while slowly shifting east.
A weak upper ridge will maintain the mostly clear skies, light winds, and above-normal temperatures today. Sunny and warm again today before a back-door dry cold front comes into Idaho from the east and northeast Monday. Our forecast is between the two but closer to the cooler and less windy MET.
1022 AM EDT Sun Oct 29 2017 Aviation section updated Cooler than normal temperatures will hang around until the end of the week.
The 7 am surface analysis showed a strong cold front from Jacksonville, FL, through Tampa, and extending into the southern Gulf of Mexico. Judging from the position of the upper trough axis, which was nearing Tallahassee, the peak of the current cold blast will occur shortly across our forecast area.
/issued 252 AM CDT Sun Oct 29 2017/ Sunny and warmer temperatures (near normal) are expected today as a surface lee trough forms and intensifies across the high plains as a large upper trough continues to progress across the eastern half of the nation. The warming will be short-lived as another upper trough amplifies across the northern half of the nation on Monday. This trough will send a strong cold front south through the forecast area during the day Monday. Prefer a quicker frontal passage and the cooler NAM, ARW and NMM guidance due to its better resolution.
605 AM CDT Sun Oct 29 2017 An upper level ridge will be building into the region today and winds will shift to the southwest and west. This will not last long as another cold front will be moving through tonight and early morning Monday.
Surface wise, A secondary cold front draped across from South Florida into the Lower keys and southward into the archipelago of Cuba.
932 AM EDT Sun Oct 29 2017 A strong cold front continues to move through the region this morning, and temperatures were steady across the interior and west and falling across the east. Any sheltered areas where winds become calm across the interior could drop into the low/mid 30s with frost. IFR/MVFR cigs along and behind the cold front this morning will quickly clear by late morning.
/Issued 325 AM EDT Sun Oct 29 2017/ Cold front is currently clearing the far SE zones within the CWFA. High pressure will build in from the west through the short term period. Sustained winds around 20mph will be possible across the entire CWFA, with slightly higher sustained winds in the highest elevations. There could be another tier of counties just to the south that could potentially be included within the warning, but confidence is not as high at this time that the majority of the county will see freezing temperatures. High pressure will move closer to overhead on Monday.
Windy Behind Cold Front Today Leading to Hazardous Boating. Attention now turns to the second (and strongest) cold front of the season, currently moving east through the forecast area. A strong cold front will sweep through east central Florida for the next several hours. Small Craft Advisory conditions expected to commence areawide as the strongest cold front of the season moves over the waters this morning.
A pair of systems will bring increasing clouds and cooler temperatures to start the week. Area of cloudiness along the central California coast is associated with a weak upper low. As the upper low slides southeast across southern California tonight we will see these clouds develop/expand across the region.
On Monday a mainly dry low pressure area moves in from the Pacific Northwest bringing a fair amount of lower to mid level cooling with it eroding much of the marine layer Monday into Monday night.
Current temperatures are already in the low to mid 40s, on the way to highs in the 60s. Surface cold front, now near the SD/NE border, will move toward the region tonight, reaching northeast Oklahoma around or just after midnight. This will result in north winds on Monday, with high temperatures about 5 to 10 degrees cooler than today.
Patchy/areas of fog prevail across the lower elevations. Highs of 60 to 65 will prevail this afternoon for the lower elevations, with mainly 50s for the mountains. For tonight, a backdoor surface cold front will cross the area from the northeast. Colder temperatures will also work in, with lows in the lower/mid 30s for the lower elevations.
612 AM MDT Sun Oct 29 2017 Current surface analysis shows low pressure over central Manitoba, with warm front extending south-southwest into the Northern Plains and a cold front stretching across western ND into MT. Upper level analysis continues to show fast northwest flow across the region between trough over the eastern US and a ridge along the west coast. Temps are mild early this morning ahead of the cold front, ranging from the upper 30s to lower 50s. Cold front will race southeast across the area this morning, with northwesterly winds developing and increasing through the late morning and afternoon hours. Temperature will drop enough across the higher northern Black Hills for some snowfall this afternoon, but any accumulations should generally be an inch or less.
CLR skies expected through the next 24 hours across the area under strong high pressure. The high will also keep winds generally light/variable through the day, before hinting at a slight southeasterly direction after sunset. /issued 410 AM CDT Sun Oct 29 2017/ SHORT TERM (Today through Monday):A fine day coming up for the latter half of the weekend as high pressure controls the surface conditions, with dry northwesterly flow aloft behind the large-scale H5 trough moving into the eastern US.
High pressure centered along the east Texas coast this morning will gradually slide east through the afternoon turning winds from north to west. /issued 400 AM CDT Sun Oct 29 2017/ Early morning sfc analysis shows high pressure in place over srn TX, providing for a light nrly low-level flow over the forecast area. Water vapor imagery shows deep troffing digging through the Mississippi Valley maintaining a dry nwrly flow aloft. however no obs show freezing temps as of yet.
Temperatures are in the mid 30s and colder in the higher elevations and will likely climb little the next few hours.
BMickelson Previous short term discussion: Synoptic Setup: Short term begins with Ridge rising up the from California into southern British Columbia and a trough running down from the Hudson Bay through the Great Lakes and into the Lower Mississippi Valley. In between the middle third of the CONUS and Canada are caught under north to northwest flow with a meso-ridge over Wyoming and a meso-trough entering Montana as the chinook shuts off. This meso-trough has tapped into some of the modified Arctic air over the Northwest Territories. Today through tonight: Cold front will move across the region early this morning bringing a brief round of scattered rain showers.
Clouds are gradually clearing and temperatures are dropping into the lower 30s even in areas with clouds. Winds will then become gusty out of the WNW in the wake of a cold front Monday morning. Southern WI will be under a weak high pressure ridge today. This afternoon, there will be a small area of 925-850mb warm air advection (WAA) nosing into south central WI ahead of the next closed upper low that will be traversing southern Canada and the Upper Midwest today. The air will saturate from the top down, so precip chances wait until the low level forcing/moisture arrives. We'll continue to see a mid level trough dig across the Great Lakes on Monday.
For this reason, will continue to see a mix of drizzle, freezing drizzle, and snow flakes with light accumulations possible mainly above 3000 feet where temperatures should stay near or below freezing all day. This may lead to some icy spots on roads across the higher elevations. Chattanooga Airport, TN 48 32 63 41 / 20 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 46 31 60 40 / 20 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 45 31 60 39 / 20 0 0 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 42 29 56 37 / 30 10 0 0 NC.
Otherwise, pleasant temperatures were in place with readings in the middle 60s to the lower 70s. For tonight, the aforementioned mid-level wave will drift southeast of the region with rain chances tapering off and clearing skies from north to south after midnight as high pressure build in. Rest of Saturday looks very nice with high pressure in control. Dew points look to be in the comfortable range as well in the lower/middle 60s. Continued mostly clear conditions expected for Saturday night as high pressure remains in control.
1147 PM EDT Fri Aug 18 2017 A cold front will pass east of the area tonight. An upper trough will move across the region Saturday afternoon and evening.
High pressure aloft currently over the region and suppressing any significant convection today will weaken moving through the weekend. Winds will trend east to southeast and remain light moving into the new work-week as high pressure becomes oriented across the southeast CONUS and adjacent coastal waters.
Scattered mid and high-level clouds preceding the trough will begin to spread eastward across the TN Valley after Midnight, and may inhibit radiational cooling just enough to prevent the development of widespread fog. The upper trough axis will move east of the forecast area by the afternoon hours on Saturday. Meanwhile, a cold front to our north will shift through the area, bringing a reinforcing shot of drier air across the region.
As we move into the weekend the upper level ridge will shift further east and will start to transition to a more southwest flow, and could possibly bring some convection over us from the mountains.
Cape around 1000j/kg, lifted indices around -5 and mid level cold pool sufficient convective parameters vcnty of slowly departing upper low for ongoing convection. Conditions should improve by early evening as upper low departs. Late Saturday night, a cold front pushes across the area from west to east.
Then beautiful, typical mid summer weather tonight into Saturday with high pressure overhead.
Mild and breezy conditions continue overnight as a dry cold front moves into Northwest Montana. Temperatures trend cooler through the weekend, but the area will remain dry.