Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
944 PM MST Fri Nov 26 2021 Quiet weather is expected over the next several days thanks to an upper ridge sitting over the area through much of the weekend. Cloud cover will gradually increase this evening as a cold front approaches the Tri-State area from the northwest. The broad upper trough driving tonight's cold front will exit the High Plains overnight Saturday into Sunday morning as the ridge amplifies over the Western CONUS. There is concern for elevated to near-critical fire weather, mainly along and west of Highway 27 due to the lower humidity and west to southwest winds gusting up to 25 mph. WNW-NW flow aloft -- on the eastern periphery of a somewhat- amorphous ridge over the Desert Southwest, central/southern Pacific Coast, and Intermountain West -- is progged to prevail through mid-late week.
A cold front will move across the area this evening and overnight. Expect breezy northwest winds gusting 20 to 30 mph Sunday along with cooler temperatures with highs only in the lower to mid 40s. Forecast soundings show that the low and mid levels in the column may not saturate. A trailing cold front will turn winds northwesterly this evening and overnight. High pressure will be in place across the Great Plains Sunday with a moderate NW gradient in place across Illinois much of the day, but the gradient will begin to relax late in the day as the ridge axis shifts east across the mid Mississippi Valley.
1034 PM EST Fri Nov 26 2021 Currently - A fairly loose pressure pattern is driving light winds out of the northwest to north due to a mid latitude trough moving out off the Atlantic coast and a high pressure system over the south. Further north, a reinforcing cold front is working its way southwards across Florida and the Gulf of Mexico. Short Term Update - Through the remainder of the night, the mid latitude will continue to move further out to sea while the high centered over the south expands in behind. The previously mentioned cold front will not reach the Keys overnight, likely bleeding into the Keys area early Saturday.
As the low clouds retreat to the northeast, mid clouds will increase from the west, covering the entire area by late afternoon. A second trough will move eastward with the surface reflection guiding it into NE Ohio around dawn. The track of the low will slowly draw the light snow shield northward overnight. Locations close to and north of I-80 will see the highest accumulations. As the upper low drifts eastward near the PA/NY border Sunday evening, its trough axis will rotate through the region and pull a surface cold front through.
A cutoff, closed low south of Arizona and high pressure west-northwest of the state continue to create northeasterly flow over the region. High pressure over the southwest will keep the storm track well north of the state, with high temperatures seeing a significant warming trend. There will be some daily fluctuations in the strength of the ridge as weak lows develop at times south of the high, but the overall trend continues to be above normal heights for Arizona with little or no impact from these undercutting lows. High temperatures starting Saturday will be 5-15 degrees above seasonal averages, with the valleys of northeast Arizona seeing the lower end of the departures due to inversions and poor mixing. Little change in this pattern is showing up even out to 8-10 days as WPC Clusters show good agreement in ridging persisting over Arizona.
Moisture will be lacking and the low-levels remain quite dry, but enough lift appears to be present with this wave to generate a band of light snow, with accumulations primarily limited to west-central Wisconsin across our area. Temperatures will be a few degrees warmer tomorrow despite continued mostly cloud skies with afternoon highs ranging from the low-mid 30s across western Wisconsin to the low 40s across western Minnesota. Slightly cooler temperatures are expected Sunday Mostly dry weather is expected to continue through the week, along with seasonable temperatures as the flow aloft become more zonal and mostly flow out of the south remains blocked by a number of fronts.
Thanks to the partial cloud cover and a continued S/SE breeze, low temperatures will be several degrees warmer than last night in the middle to upper 20s. Once the wave passes to the north, a cold front will push through central Illinois late Saturday, dropping temps back into the lower to middle 40s on Sunday.
1225 AM EST Sat Nov 27 2021 Chilly high pressure will build into the area tonight through early Saturday, before moving off the Southeast coast Saturday night. A fast-moving but dry cold front will cross the area late Sunday.
Upper low near Baja is forecast to make its way ene to near El Paso Saturday morning and toward East Texas/Arklatex/La area heading into Sunday morning. In addition to bringing plentiful mid and upper level Pacific moisture with it, a developing coastal trof off the lower Tx coast will add a bit of Gulf moisture to the mix. As large scale lift increases with the approach of the trof and leading impulses, look for an increase of rain/showers moving into the region from the west during the day Saturday. It should slowly begin tapering off from nw-to-se after midnight as the upper trof axis begins exiting to the east and coastal trof to the southeast. Generally went on the lower side of guidance suggestions.
Low pressure is forecast to reach Lake Michigan by this evening. Central KY and southern IN will see a tightening pressure gradient, increasing southwesterly winds, and warm air advection downstream of the low. As the low passes to the north of the region this evening, cannot totally rule out a sprinkle in the vicinity of Madison IN. The cold front pushes through tonight. Winds veer northwesterly heading into early Sunday and begin pulling in cooler air once again.
(Today and tonight) Early morning water vapor imagery reveals a closed upper low centered across far northern Mexico continuing to move slowly eastward, with high clouds streaming out ahead of the low into west Texas and southern Oklahoma. Rain chances will diminish this evening as the upper low opens/weakens and moves eastward. Lows tonight will then drop into the low 30s north, near 40 south where clouds will take the longest to dissipate.
930 PM CST Fri Nov 26 2021 (Issued 930 PM CST Fri Nov 26 2021) Ongoing mid-level warm air advection ahead of approaching weak low pressure clipper in the northern Plains should continue to generate bkn-ovc higher clouds over southern WI much of the night. Increasing nwly winds and cold advection will take hold Sat nt as low pressure moves to the east.
1016 PM CST Fri Nov 26 2021 (The rest of tonight) High clouds are increasing across southern Oklahoma in advance of an upper level low over northern Mexico. At the surface, a high pressure ridge axis extends from the Ohio Valley southwest across TX. Southerly winds on the north side of the ridge will slow cooling and will result in overnight lows much milder than last night.
332 AM EST Sat Nov 27 2021 High pressure will move off the coast and temperatures will be more seasonable by Sunday. A re-enforcing dry cold front will move through the region Sunday night. Pressure ridge will move off the coast by this afternoon and a Piedmont trough will develop. Winds will be light and favor southwest this afternoon with trough to the northwest. Some high level clouds will spread into the region late tonight ahead of short wave trough moving southeast across the Gulf coast region/lower Mississippi Valley. Stayed near the mos consensus for low temps above freezing in the mid to upper 30s. Temperatures will be in the low to mid 60s with limited moisture recovery in the low levels. The cold front will push through Sunday evening with an even drier airmass funneling in behind it.
241 AM CST Sat Nov 27 2021 This forecast period continues to look mainly dry with just a few dry cold frontal passages and no hazards expected. Today, a cold front will look to move through the area however, with little cold air behind the front, this feature will do little more than provide mixing to allow highs to rise into the upper 50s to lower 60s. The cool start and weak mixing through the day Sunday as high pressure remains in control will hold highs in the mid 40s to lower 50s.
The mixing today will override the weak cold air advection and still result in warmer than normal temperatures.
With the ridge building in from the southwest, the amount of moisture is less and less as most of it is coming through the Panhandle and Montana. Other than gap winds, the only places that will remain breezy are closer to ridgetop Today and Sunday.
206 AM CST Sat Nov 27 2021 Quite chilly across the area this morning with current temperatures ranging from the low 20s to around 30. Added mention of some patchy freezing fog along waterways and adjacent areas through 14Z this morning, but confidence is not high and not anticipating anything widespread or significant.
Therefore the highest rain chances will be along and west of a line from Waynesboro, MS to Gulf Shore, AL after midnight tonight. Lows tonight will range from the low 40s inland to around 50 near the coast.
We are not anticipating any accumulating precipitation due to such a dry airmass in the low-levels, but a few sprinkles, and mainly virga are possible with the passage of this wave.
Otherwise high pressure will be in place for the day, with highs in the 50s to low 60s. Lows tonight will be in the low to mid 30s northeast to low 40s in the southwest with the added high clouds.
Temperatures will be cooler today in the wake of the trough, aided by the increased cloud cover. Gusty winds will return to the Wind Corridor, due to the leeside trough redeveloping over eastern WY; the temperature gradient will tighten along the Cody Foothills leading to increased gap flow.
Moisture is quite limited but a weak cold front will move across the plains through the early morning hours. Main impact will be cooler temperatures today as 700mb temperatures cool down to around -3c today along with a strengthening low level inversion at 700mb.
/JNE/ Today will start off with a chilly morning as low temperatures dropped to near or below freezing for a lot of areas across the ArkLaMiss. As we begin to gain sunlight, temperatures will start to recover and eventually warm into the low 60s for highs today. Clouds will also start to increase through the night which will help limit radiational cooling and keep us above freezing. Expect lows tonight to range from the low to mid 40s. /JNE/ Areas of light rain will continue into early Sunday morning mainly across the southern half of the area, but rain/clouds should clear out fairly quickly during the late morning/midday time frame with the passage of a mid/upper trough.
651 AM EST Sat Nov 27 2021 High pressure will build from the south briefly today before a low pressure system enters the western Great Lakes this evening and will move across Lake Erie tonight.
559 AM CST Sat Nov 27 2021 (Today and tonight) A cloudy, cool and wet day is expected across West Central Texas today, as a compact upper low, currently over southwest Texas tracks east across the area. Lows tonight will mainly be in the lower 40s, with decreasing clouds expected late tonight into Sunday morning.
700 AM EST Sat Nov 27 2021 High pressure centered in the central Gulf coastal states eases eastward today. Yesterday's cold front is now in south FL as high pressure in the north builds across the waters. Another cold front with a few showers tracks south late Sun-early Mon with high pressure in it's wake.
Meanwhile, a gusty backdoor cold front will begin to move into northeastern NM this morning.
511 AM CST Sat Nov 27 2021 (Today and tonight) Early morning water vapor imagery reveals a closed upper low centered across far northern Mexico continuing to move slowly eastward, with high clouds streaming out ahead of the low into west Texas and southern Oklahoma. Rain chances will diminish this evening as the upper low opens/weakens and moves eastward. Lows tonight will then drop into the low 30s north, near 40 south where clouds will take the longest to dissipate.
516 AM CST Sat Nov 27 2021 Water vapor satellite early this morning showed a short wave trough moving southeast across northwest Minnesota. An area of low pressure associated with this wave was over the far southeast corner of South Dakota. The short wave trough looks to only be able to produce some weak pv advection in the 500-300 mb layer today and it is tough to find a coherent frontogenesis signal.
The cold front is just south of the area this morning, with a few clouds lingering back behind it. Cooler air is draining in on the northerly winds, with upper 30s to lower 40s already in place across the Nature Coast. Weak high pressure will be in place today as a weak area of low pressure develops over the western Gulf of Mexico with zonal flow aloft. This low/trough moves east towards the area Sunday as an upper through moves over the state, bringing in some low rain chances ahead of a cold front.
Temperatures are above freezing west of the valley.
In particular, 700-300mb Q-vector convergence associated with a 500-mb trough is expected to move across the region generally from 18z today to 12z Sunday.
Down at the surface, observations show temperatures rapidly cooling when there is no wind while areas that have more persistent wind are staying much warmer, leading to big swings for temperatures in time and space.
CAMs are struggling with the dry air from the surface to around 750mb or so as indicated on this morning's sounding from KBIS, and precipitation is being reported in scattered places across the CWA (mainly where radar reflectivities are the highest). Expect clearing cloud cover through the remainder of the day as the western CONUS ridge attempts to pop back up.
A trough/weak front will usher in a slightly cooler air mass today with cooler temps forecast, but with temps still near normal to slightly above normal. Winds along and right behind this trough/boundary will increase later this morning, especially across the eastern plains where a small window of northerly gusts of 35-40 mph will be possible.
318 AM CST Sat Nov 27 2021 The overall 500mb pattern will feature an exiting wave over the Dakotas and MN, with ridging taking control of our area by mid afternoon and continuing through Saturday. In between the trough and nearing high, gusty north to northwesterly winds will rule the day. The main area of low pressure will sink to the central Plains, with a ridge moving to central SD by 06Z Sunday, and our eastern counties 12-15Z Sunday. Expect high clouds to stream in from the northwest late tonight behind the ridge, which may impact how low temperatures will fall.
A pretty typical La NiÃ±a pattern is in place with a strong ridge of high pressure over the eastern Pacific set to build over California and the dessert Southwest over the next several days. The ridge will keep any weather systems well north of Arizona with a long stretch of dry and warm weather ahead.
Quite chilly across the area this morning with current temperatures ranging from the low 20s to around 30. Added mention of some patchy freezing fog along waterways and adjacent areas through 14Z this morning, but confidence is not high and not anticipating anything widespread or significant.
432 AM EST Sat Nov 27 2021 High pressure will building in from the west lasts through the weekend. A dry cold front will push through the area Sunday night. However, NNW flow through most of the day and cold 850 mb temps right around 0 C, will limit highs to only the upper 40s across the northeast half of the area, and the low 50s across the southwest. Light winds at the SFC back to become SWerly this evening/tonight bringing in slightly warmer/moister air. Lows in the low 30s approaching freezing for inland and sheltered spots, upper 30s for coast, around 40 for OBX.
A slight warming trend will occur through the weekend with high pressure moving into the region. EPAC ridge of high pressure will continue to dominate the regions weather with slightly above normal temperatures and patchy late night and early morning fog in parts of the SJV.
Yesterday's cold front now sits just south of the FL Keys this morning with quiet weather conditions for the state. Streaming cirrus is the only evidence of any available moisture as much drier air has filtered south behind the cold front.
Surface analysis depicts a cold front extending from the distant parent low over Quebec across the western Atlantic, the northern Bahamas and far South Florida into the southern Gulf of Mexico. Aloft, a longwave trough is moving offshore into the western Atlantic, while a cutoff low moves slowly eastward over northern Mexico.
416 AM MST Sat Nov 27 2021 Water vapor shows upper ridge covering the western CONUS with trof tracking southeast across ALTA/SASK on the northern periphery of the ridge. At the surface, trof is moving eastward across the western Dakotas with cold front diving south across northern MT. Northwest winds will continue to increase this morning as trof advances eastward and cold front moves in from the north. Highs will be noticeably cooler than yesterday, and in the 40s to lower 50s.
BW Chattanooga Airport, TN 57 38 57 31 52 / 0 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 54 37 54 28 47 / 0 0 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 53 35 53 27 47 / 0 0 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 50 31 50 25 42 / 0 0 0 0 0.
(Today and tonight) A cloudy, cool and wet day is expected across West Central Texas today, as a compact upper low, currently over southwest Texas tracks east across the area. Lows tonight will mainly be in the lower 40s, with decreasing clouds expected late tonight into Sunday morning.
With the passage of an upper level wave, a surface cold front is expected to push through the area around dawn this morning and bring temperatures down slightly for today (though still above average) and bring breezy northwest winds as well. Ridging will begin to build over the Pacific NW along with an upper level jet streak over British Columbia. This jet streak however will dampen any ridging before it can reach us, ensuring we stay in northwest flow and sending a couple waves our way.
Meanwhile, a warm front is about to reach the Oregon coast. Behind the warm front, conditions are expected to be favorable for the development of west side valley low clouds and fog tonight into Sunday morning.
425 AM MST Sat Nov 27 2021 GOES-16 water vapor imagery reveals a mid-level low over northern Mexico, fast west-northwest flow over the Pacific Northwest, and a broad ridge off the Southern California coastline as of early this morning. As this occurs, the Southern California ridge will also expand and lead to rising heights across the Great Basin and Four Corners. Modest mid and high level moisture riding over the crest of this building ridge will lead to more bouts of cirrus and cirrostratus, especially over the northern half of the forecast area.
The normally sheltered locations were seeing sub-freezing temps /mid 20s to lower 30s/. Hi temps today wl be abt 10 degrees warmer than Fri, ranging from the upper 50s to the mid 60s. A reinforcing shot of cooler and drier air wl work into the region as a CDFNT drops sewd thru the FA behind the departing storm sys.
High Pressure over the southeast is keeping skies clear and winds calm this morning. While we won't be seeing any precipitation from this system, we will see northerly winds move back in Sunday afternoon as a dry front moves through out ahead of strong high pressure moving in from the northern Great Plains.
Surface and road temperatures above freezing, aided by the cloud cover, limit any concern for brief/pockets of FZRA.
322 AM CST Sat Nov 27 2021 A cut-off low located just south of the New Mexico Bootheel early this morning will make steady progress east-northeastward today, crossing West Texas just to our south. By noon or shortly after, the circulation around the low will result in a tongue of higher Theta-e air wrapping around its northern flank, resulting in a TROWAL structure that is forecast to set up west to east over our central and southern counties. Back to the surface, the 0Z runs of the ECMWF, GFS and NAM appear likely to be too aggressive in moistening the the lowest column of air during the day, at least for locations to the north of our southern-most tier of counties, resulting in dewpoint forecasts that run about 10-15 degrees higher than recent runs of the HRRR and RAP.
440 AM CST Sat Nov 27 2021 The overall 500mb pattern will feature an exiting wave over the Dakotas and MN, with ridging taking control of our area by mid afternoon and continuing through Saturday. In between the trough and nearing high, gusty north to northwesterly winds will rule the day. The main area of low pressure will sink to the central Plains, with a ridge moving to central SD by 06Z Sunday, and our eastern counties 12-15Z Sunday. Expect high clouds to stream in from the northwest late tonight behind the ridge, which may impact how low temperatures will fall.
Looking at the H5 chart tonight, closed low pressure was located over New England with another closed low over northwestern Mexico. At the surface, low pressure was located over eastern North Dakota with a cold front extending to the west northwest of this feature into northeastern Montana. A cold front will push into the forecast area today with cold air advection noted into the afternoon hours. High pressure will build into the area this evening, then track to the southeast into Kansas overnight. Warmer air will push into the forecast area on Sunday as a warm front lifts across the area.
Water vapor imagery this morning showed an upper low south of El Paso with wrap around moisture across far SE Cochise county.
613 AM EST Sat Nov 27 2021 High pressure will move off the coast and temperatures will be more seasonable by Sunday. A re-enforcing dry cold front will move through the region Sunday night. Pressure ridge will move off the coast by this afternoon and a Piedmont trough will develop. Winds will be light and favor southwest this afternoon with trough to the northwest. Some high level clouds will spread into the region late tonight ahead of short wave trough moving southeast across the Gulf coast region/lower Mississippi Valley. Stayed near the mos consensus for low temps above freezing in the mid to upper 30s. Temperatures will be in the low to mid 60s with limited moisture recovery in the low levels. The cold front will push through Sunday evening with an even drier airmass funneling in behind it.
641 AM EST Sat Nov 27 2021 High pressure building in from the west lasts through the weekend. A dry cold front will push through the area Sunday night. However, NNW flow through most of the day and cold 850 mb temps right around 0 C, will limit highs to only the upper 40s across the northeast half of the area, and the low 50s across the southwest. Light winds at the SFC back to become SWerly this evening/tonight bringing in slightly warmer/moister air. Lows in the low 30s approaching freezing for far inland areas and sheltered spots, upper 30s for coast, around 40 for OBX.
Higher humidity and cloud cover overnight has resulted in generally warmer temperatures in most areas. Several valley locations in Trinity County still dipped into the lower to mid 30s. A few valley sites will probably still fall into the lower to mid 30s. These sprinkles will quickly come to an end as the ridge aloft amplifies. Warmer daytime temperatures are forecast this weekend, with highs generally in the 60s. Warmer inland locations, such as Ukiah and southern Lake County will reach the lower to mid 70s today and Sunday.