Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Because of expected snow today in the central mtns and the potential for the strong winds to cause blowing snow that may reduce visibilities, will issue a winter weather advisory for Lake County and the high elevations of western Chaffee County today and into the evening.
It will be mainly sunny, cooler, and breezy today.
655 AM CST Mon Feb 24 2020 A well-developed mid-latitude cyclone is located over the central Plains early this morning. One area that still does have a chance of snow is southwest of the Minnesota River, specifically the Buffalo Ridge.
534 AM CST Mon Feb 24 2020 (Today and tonight) A deep surface cyclone was centered between Alva and Enid early this morning. The low pressure area will continue drifting slowly east this morning. Ahead of the low, a few thunderstorms will remain a possibility early this morning.
A cold front will continue cross Utah through this morning. High pressure will gradually build into the region through the remainder of the week.
306 AM CST Mon Feb 24 2020 Quiet over the area early this morning with just some increasing cirrus ahead of low pressure over the Southern Plains. Today we'll see a continued increase in cirrus north of the Southern Plains low pressure system as it chugs through southern MO.
High pressure is building into the PacNW behind yesterday's front. The dry pattern will continue through the entire work week as an upper level ridge remains in control with a surface thermal trough that will fluctuate in strength along the coast.
304 AM CST Mon Feb 24 2020 Low pressure has now moved into north central Oklahoma early this morning however a tight pressure gradient remains in place over our area. Tonight, a stronger cold front will move into the region and usher in a much colder air mass. Tuesday afternoon surface ridging will begin to develop/move into our forecast area tightening the pressure gradient yet again across the area leading to breezy northerly winds of 20-30 mph Tuesday afternoon.
A cold front will shift winds to the north late evening at KABI and by morning across the rest of the terminals. A cold front moves in the Big Country late evening, moving along I- 20, 10 PM to Midnight, and through the rest of the region by morning.
Although the system will track east, the main trough will remain positively tilted with a slightly slower progression across the area today.
/Issued 254 AM CST Mon Feb 24 2020/ Early morning satellite imagery detected the upper cyclone across northwest OK, with a pronounced dry slot noted across a good portion of the forecast area. The better rain chances will remain near the OK/KS and MO/AR borders this morning as the upper system tracks east-northeast, with scattered light showers/drizzle south of the low. Models continue to suggest some light precipitation into Tuesday night as the trof axis nears, with snow or a rain/snow mix possible mainly across parts of northwest AR.
Current radar trends and high resolution data continue to suggest that the highest totals will be seen under the west to east oriented band that has situated itself from far eastern Adams county, and over into Grant, Sioux, southern Morton, and Emmons counties. Snow will move completely out of the area by Tuesday morning, giving way to cooler temperatures with overnight lows in the teens and highs in the 20s.
While there is near zonal flow aloft, we are at the base of a broad upper level ridge. Meanwhile, mid level ridging is in place across our area. Short Term Update - Ridging will continue to dominate Keys weather through the afternoon. Expect temperatures to get up to around 80 degrees with the warmer flow and ample sunshine.
Ridge progged to build into the region this evening, bringing an end to precip chances in the mountains, as well as the start of a warmer and quiet period of weather.
Upper trough/mid level low is tracking southwest of our CWA, with light snow (mainly flurries) barely moving over our far southwest CWA this afternoon. Regarding wind tonight-Tuesday: We still expect winds to pick up tonight as CAA increase as a cold front and stronger CAA arrives. With older snow pack crusted from warmer temps over the weekend and little to no new snow in our southwest we currently don't expect blowing snow impacts.
1137 AM CST Mon Feb 24 2020 (Today and tonight) A deep surface cyclone was centered between Alva and Enid early this morning. The low pressure area will continue drifting slowly east this morning. Ahead of the low, a few thunderstorms will remain a possibility early this morning.
Cloud cover will increase tonight as a low pressure system lifts northeast from the Missouri/Arkansas state line and progresses into the Ohio River Valley.
The breezy NW winds currently affecting KCDS will weaken through the afternoon, but all three terminals will see a cold front move through this evening. /issued 304 AM CST Mon Feb 24 2020/ Low pressure has now moved into north central Oklahoma early this morning however a tight pressure gradient remains in place over our area. Tonight, a stronger cold front will move into the region and usher in a much colder air mass. Tuesday afternoon surface ridging will begin to develop/move into our forecast area tightening the pressure gradient yet again across the area leading to breezy northerly winds of 20-30 mph Tuesday afternoon.
High pressure over the Atlantic continues to slide eastward with an increasing pressure gradient allowing for breezy southeasterly winds. Lows tonight will be in the low 60s near the Lake Okeechobee region to mid and upper 60s elsewhere, except the east coast where temps will be near 70. As we move into Tuesday winds will veer to more southerly ahead of an approaching cold front.
1032 AM CST Mon Feb 24 2020 Rain working up from the south was finally able to overcome dry air in the lower levels late last night. Light to moderate rain then gradually spread northward into the southern half of the CWA overnight, and as of early this morning has progressed as far north as the Highway 36 corridor. If temperatures can drop several more degrees over northern Missouri this morning, light rain could change over to light snow or a rain-snow mix briefly before temperatures climb back above freezing later this morning.
Stronger cold front will follow tonight and drop temperatures to below normal values for Tuesday.
1119 AM CST Mon Feb 24 2020 A well-developed mid-latitude cyclone is located over the central Plains early this morning. One area that still does have a chance of snow is southwest of the Minnesota River, specifically the Buffalo Ridge.
Cold front/dryline through UTS/CXO/66R with a noticeable drop in dewpoints. Cold front moves into the area Tuesday morning/afternoon and winds shift to the NNE then back to the northwest as deeper cold air arrives and winds become gusty 14-20z across most of the area. The line of showers/isolated thunderstorms (with the pre-frontal trof) is continuing to steadily move south into the Gulf at this time. The cold front seems to be lagging these rains by a couple of hours and is roughly along a line from Groveton to Huntsville to Brenham at present.
A secondary upper wave will move southeast across the high plains of Wyoming/Colorado and into the mid section of the nation by Tuesday. A ridge of high pressure will build southward across Canada overnight and on Tuesday.
100 PM PST Mon Feb 24 2020 Fair and warmer weather is expected this week under building high pressure and offshore flow.
/Pelatti 06Z TAFS: A cold front moves east and an upper trough shifts in before high pressure starts take over.
1025 AM CST Mon Feb 24 2020 Low pressure system continues to track across southeast KS this morning. Cold front now entering northeast OK, where max temps for the day have already occurred, and it will continue to progress southeast through this afternoon. /Issued 254 AM CST Mon Feb 24 2020/ Early morning satellite imagery detected the upper cyclone across northwest OK, with a pronounced dry slot noted across a good portion of the forecast area. The better rain chances will remain near the OK/KS and MO/AR borders this morning as the upper system tracks east-northeast, with scattered light showers/drizzle south of the low. Models continue to suggest some light precipitation into Tuesday night as the trof axis nears, with snow or a rain/snow mix possible mainly across parts of northwest AR.
247 PM CST Mon Feb 24 2020 The next cold front, which is currently in western NE/northern CO, is expected to push through the FA shortly around/after 00Z tonight.
A quick glance at GOES-16 satellite (rapid 1 minute updates) shows a pocket of clearing just ahead of the cold front, which currently extends from Warsaw, MO to Tulsa, OK. Meanwhile, a 30-40 kt low-level jet is enhancing the low-level shear profile across northern Arkansas and southern Missouri, with effective SRH values now ranging between 150-200 m^2/s^2.
The exception will be in the highest mountain peaks of far East TN and SW VA where light snow will linger through 18 or 19Z. Low confidence TAF forecast over the next 24 hours as a slow moving low pressure system keeps the region in low clouds, periods of showers, and periods of mist. RG Chattanooga Airport, TN 48 63 43 52 30 / 80 10 10 40 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 47 63 44 51 29 / 70 10 20 60 30 Oak Ridge, TN 47 63 43 50 29 / 70 10 20 60 20 Tri Cities Airport, TN 44 63 43 52 28 / 60 20 10 70 30.
Cool and breezy today behind yesterday's exiting low pressure system.
/This Afternoon/ The back edge of the -SHRA continues to quickly advance E across Cntrl and NE LA late this morning, in response to much drier air entraining ENE ahead of the closed low over SW MO advancing E while opening up as it enters the MS Valley. Meanwhile, the late morning sfc analysis indicates a dryline mixing E across NE TX/extreme SW AR, which will continue to mix E into much of N LA/SCntrl AR/Deep E TX through the afternoon, bringing about lower RH's and even slightly cooler temps.
Northwest winds increased to 25 to 35 mph behind the low, with some gusts around 40 mph. The track of the low now keeps somewhat persistent snowfall over western SD through Tuesday morning, although parts of northeastern WY may have a brief reprieve.
A cold front located under the upper low will slowly advance southeast.
The aforementioned cold front may move to near the I-65 corridor Tuesday morning before stalling. Lows tonight range from the mid to upper 50s across southeast MS and southwest AL to the lower 60s across south central AL and the western FL panhandle.
The exception will be KMAF where tempo MVFR CIGS are expected behind a cold front from 25/10Z to 25/14Z tonight. Cold front will move north to south through all terminals between 03-09z with wind shift out of north-northwest expected. Today will be pleasant with highs in the 60s and 70s before an upper low develops in the Central Plains sending a cold front into the CWA Tuesday.
Stable are in place with mid level ridging and associated inhibition and dry air aloft. Forecast - The high pressure to our northeast will work its way eastward tonight into tomorrow as the next mid latitude trough amplifies over the central United States. For the time being, lower through mid level ridging and inhibition will hang on. In addition, the mid level ridge, holding showers at bay, will push out east of our area as the mid latitude trough swing into the eastern United States.
1136 AM CST Mon Feb 24 2020 Area of light to moderate rainfall will continue to pinwheel around the upper low as it moves from south central across southeast Kansas this morning. Otherwise, another energetic upper trof will dig southeastward from the northern Rockies into the northern and central Plains today and tonight with a closed low evolving across the lower Missouri Valley by late Tuesday morning. Deeper cold advection under the associated trof will steepen lapse rates by the afternoon where sufficient moisture/lift and weak instability should result in scattered rain to snow showers.
The center of low pressure impacting us yesterday is now making its way into the Dakotas though moisture continues to filter into Eastern Idaho this afternoon. A chance for snow showers will exist, especially in the high country. The other weather story for today are the strong west and west-northwest winds across Southern Idaho and extending into the Lower Snake Plain.
928 AM PST Mon Feb 24 2020 Fair and warmer weather is expected this week under building high pressure and offshore flow.
A cold front will exit Utah this morning. High pressure will gradually build into the region through the remainder of the week. The cold front that blew through northern and central Utah overnight is exiting the state this morning. Associated precip was light at best and has already ended, but areas of gusty winds continue, particularly over the higher terrain and valleys of eastern Utah. Temperatures will be noticeably cooler behind the front, at least over northern and central Utah, with maxes running 10F or more below values observed yesterday for many locations. In the wake of the trough, high pressure will build off the California coast, keeping Utah and southwest Wyoming under a dry northwest flow for much of the work week.
1213 PM CST Mon Feb 24 2020 Quiet over the area early this morning with just some increasing cirrus ahead of low pressure over the Southern Plains. Today we'll see a continued increase in cirrus north of the Southern Plains low pressure system as it chugs through southern MO.
200 PM CST Mon Feb 24 2020 NW mid-level flow will persist thru Thur setting up a favorable pattern for frequent dry cold fronts. MSLP gradient sufficient for post-frontal breezy conditions for a few hrs and it will be noticeably cooler Tue than Mon. The parent anticyclone is strong and Wed AM a hard freeze is possible across most areas, especially if the wind abates a few hrs before sunrise, cooler Wed PM.
A cold front will switch around to the north across KABI before sunrise, and spread south across the rest of the locations by mid morning. A cold front will shift winds to the north late evening at KABI and by morning across the rest of the terminals. A cold front moves in the Big Country late evening, moving along I- 20, 10 PM to Midnight, and through the rest of the region by morning.
Travel will remain difficult in the higher mountains through tomorrow morning. A short wave trough over Montana will dive south-southeast and strengthen into a closed low over western Kansas Tuesday morning. The northerly winds user in colder air with highs Tuesday struggling to get above freezing.
212 PM MST Mon Feb 24 2020 Afternoon Update: Main updates were to timing of the exit of precipitation and refreshing the precipitation accumulations to keep up with trends of the high resolution model solutions. In fact, current consensus guidance, backed by ensemble means, supports highs across much of NE Montana in the upper 30s to mid 40s for the upcoming weekend with dry weather conditions as well for now as upper ridging drives rising heights and large scale subsidence over the western U. Winds: In the east, ahead of the cold front, winds should remain generally easterly at 10-20 kts.
Mid- and upper level trough pushes through the area as well. The Buffalo Ridge could see some accumulating snow as well, with the locally higher elevation and eastern flow as the low moves through.
Breezy northeast winds and briefly cooler temperatures are expected on Tuesday, before temperatures warm up later in the week. After a warm day today, a dry cold front will push down across the Northland on Tuesday with cooler daytime temperatures and gusty northeast winds, especially along and just south of higher terrain features.
Cold front is east of the Mississippi River but not to the Tennessee River just yet. Currently, a dry slot has helped to diminish the rain across the mid state, although a weak trough will swing across the area during the evening and may produce a spotty showers. Look for conditions to improve after 12Z Tuesday as the low pulls off to the east and takes the bulk of the moisture with it.
A developing upper level low will result in a surface wave triggering an area of widespread snow across much of north central Nebraska. This cold air combined with clearing skies and recent snowpack will allow low temperatures to drop into the low to mid teens for much of western and north central Nebraska.
However, additional cloud cover and precipitation influenced from incoming s/wv trough and associated cold front will spread into the region from western Kansas and southeast Colorado this evening and overnight. As upper trough moves across Kansas tomorrow, reinforcing surge of colder air will move into the region Tuesday afternoon and evening.
An upper level trough is digging into the Central US as upper level ridging builds into NorCal.
As high pressure begins to slide southward over Montana, the system will get pushed southward as well. Lows tonight will be in the lower 20s, with highs on Tuesday in the mid to upper 20s.
VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours as a cold front moves thru the area. /issued 200 PM CST Mon Feb 24 2020/ NW mid-level flow will persist thru Thur setting up a favorable pattern for frequent dry cold fronts. MSLP gradient sufficient for post-frontal breezy conditions for a few hrs and it will be noticeably cooler Tue than Mon. The parent anticyclone is strong and Wed AM a hard freeze is possible across most areas, especially if the wind abates a few hrs before sunrise, cooler Wed PM.
604 PM CST Mon Feb 24 2020 Convection continues to fester late this afternoon along and ahead of a passing cold front. Light precipitation will persist this evening into Tuesday as the warm conveyor belt wraps around the exiting mid- latitude cyclone and keeps low-level moisture in place. Model guidance is in excellent agreement in showing an amplification of the 500- mb trough as it digs south into the Four Corners Region by Tuesday morning. As this trough digs south, the tightening geopotential height gradient ahead of the trough will result in a strengthening jet streak downwind of the trough, with 12z guidance now developing a 110-130kt 300-mb jet streak from the southern Plains into the Ozarks.
Dry weather and warming temperatures can be expected through the end of the week as high pressure builds in from the eastern Pacific and strengthens over the area. Pacific high pressure is building into the west coast and as a result central California is experiencing generally sunny skies and a slight increase in temperatures from yesterday. Models prog the upper ridge to continue building over the west coast into the end of the week.
355 PM CST Mon Feb 24 2020 Convection continues to fester late this afternoon along and ahead of a passing cold front. Light precipitation will persist this evening into Tuesday as the warm conveyor belt wraps around the exiting mid- latitude cyclone and keeps low-level moisture in place. Model guidance is in excellent agreement in showing an amplification of the 500- mb trough as it digs south into the Four Corners Region by Tuesday morning. As this trough digs south, the tightening geopotential height gradient ahead of the trough will result in a strengthening jet streak downwind of the trough, with 12z guidance now developing a 110-130kt 300-mb jet streak from the southern Plains into the Ozarks.
/00Z TAFS/ A cold front will move across West Central Texas tonight and early Tuesday morning switching winds around from the north after midnight. Stronger cold front will follow tonight and drop temperatures to below normal values for Tuesday.
Upper air analysis this morning showed a broad trough over the southwestern part of the country with west-southwesterly flow over Texas. A cold front was stretched from College Station to Gonzales to Carrizo Springs. A second cold front will drop down through North Texas and into our CWA tonight. It will continue to bring cooler air. Lows Tuesday morning will be around 15 degrees cooler than Monday. High temperatures Tuesday will be near 10 degrees cooler than Monday.
213 PM MST Mon Feb 24 2020 Pretty busy day thanks to the cold front that moved through earlier this morning. All this is thanks to the cold front, a tight pressure gradient, instability aloft, and favorable upper level dynamics bringing the gusty winds to the surface. The current winter weather advisories for the northern and central mountains and Flat Tops will remain in effect as short range models continue to show some light snow accumulation for those areas and though winds will die down overnight, the higher elevations will see some higher gusts from time to time. For tomorrow, a few lingering showers are possible over the higher terrain but, by and large, the precip will be over.
546 PM CST Mon Feb 24 2020 A cold front was moving quickly southward into the northern Texas Panhandle late this afternoon with strong 1 hour surface pressure rises near 4 millibars but expected to increase as high as 6 millibars per hour as it moves into the southern Panhandle early this evening. Otherwise, expecting dry cooler and gusty north-northwest flow behind this front later tonight and Tuesday. /issued 247 PM CST Mon Feb 24 2020/ The next cold front, which is currently in western NE/northern CO, is expected to push through the FA shortly around/after 00Z tonight.
Following the quick system on Tuesday, warming temperatures are expected across the region as a ridge of high pressure builds off of the outer coast.
A low amplitude ridge of high pressure slides over the Northern Rockies on Tuesday causing a respite in the convection.
As of 21Z Monday afternoon, the upper low which brought widespread rain to the area last night and today has progressed into central MO, taking the associated rainfall east as well. Temperatures have warmed into the lower 50s across north-central KS where sunny skies reside while temperatures remain in the middle 40s across far eastern KS where overcast skies remain.
Adjusted temps a bit further north as clearing has allowed readings to drop into the teens, but the main cold front is still well to our north. Upper trough/mid level low is tracking southwest of our CWA, with light snow (mainly flurries) barely moving over our far southwest CWA this afternoon. Regarding wind tonight-Tuesday: We still expect winds to pick up tonight as CAA increase as a cold front and stronger CAA arrives. With older snow pack crusted from warmer temps over the weekend and little to no new snow in our southwest we currently don't expect blowing snow impacts.
So have decided to go with a winter weather advisory for a couple of counties (Russell and Barton), where I have the highest confidence in 1 to 2 inches. Ketcham Upper level ridging looks to move in for the end of the week, which will lead to temperatures climbing well above normal going into the weekend.
322 PM CST Mon Feb 24 2020 A low pressure system will be moving through our area today and Tuesday.
The low pressure center of the storm system was over central Nebraska, with an inverted trough extending northwestward across western SD and along the MT/ND border. Current radar trends and high resolution data continue to suggest that the highest totals will be seen under the west to east oriented band that has situated itself from far eastern Adams county, and over into Grant, Sioux, southern Morton, and Emmons counties. Snow will move completely out of the area by Tuesday morning, giving way to cooler temperatures with overnight lows in the teens and highs in the 20s.
An additional couple of inches of snow are expected through midnight at a time when wet roads are refreezing from melted snow earlier today.
As a result, we have dropped the high wind warnings early. Latest water vapor loop was showing the upper level low slowly getting organized across the northern plains. The HREF in particular is leaning towards slightly higher snowfall amounts along the Pine Ridge and the Cheyenne Ridge starting after midnight and continuing through early tomorrow afternoon. Therefore, we have hoisted some winter weather advisories for areas mainly along and north of the Cheyenne Ridge where 2 to 4 inches of snow will possible starting tomorrow morning.