Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Today: the main synoptic features will be the mid-level low along the northern Gulf coast/trough extending east across northern Florida, as well as the subtropical ridge nosing in from the Bahamas across South Florida. The ridge is very slowly expanding north and this will result in low-mid level flow becoming more southerly. The leading edge of a narrow Saharan Air Layer (SAL) currently across the Florida Keys and the far southern Florida peninsula will also nudge northward with the ridge. After storms dissipate early this evening, expect a mainly dry night with the exception of scattered showers/isolated thunderstorms potentially moving onshore along the Atlantic coast in the low level SE flow.
247 PM EDT Sat May 20 2017 High pressure well to the north of the state will slide to the south and east tonight and be centered over the eastern seaboard on Sunday morning.
High temperatures will be a few degrees cooler today with highs mainly in the upper 80s and while this is more normal for this time of year, it will still feel hot and muggy.
Not overly confident in convective evolution today as it will be dependent on mesoscale features, but in the synoptic sense, area now lies within area of divergence between jet rounding upper low over the Central Plains and a subtropical jet nosing eastward across northern MX/southern TX and into the NW Gulf. /issued 510 AM CDT Sat May 20 2017/ An upper level low swinging down into Texas this am is supporting a line of storms ahead of a cold front this line is approaching from the west.
An upper level low pressure system over central Nebraska early this afternoon will lift rapidly to the north northeast into northern Minnesota by midday Sunday. High pressure building east across the central High Plains tonight. Skies should clear fairly rapidly with the loss of daytime heating over southern parts of the forecast area with areas farther north soon to follow as the low level flow becomes more anticyclonic this evening. The going low temperature forecast has lows in the lower 40s in most locations.
Changeover to all snow or mix could be attributable to dynamic cooling in the column with the heavier precip rates and a low freezing level. Nonetheless, a cool day is expected tomorrow, albeit dry compared to today, with highs 5 to 10 degrees cooler than seasonal normal values.
305 PM CDT Sat May 20 2017 Cold front now moving through western Missouri will continue to progress eastward tonight. Cooler and drier air will filter into the area behind the front tonight. Carney The global models are in relatively good agreement that the upper low that will be along the U.
Warm front was roughly located between I-72 and I-70, and should be north of the forecast area by early afternoon. Upper low easily discernible on IR sat imagery this morning over southwestern Nebraska. Starting cooler and that cloud cover has resulted in a major drop in the high temps for today.
234 PM CDT Sat May 20 2017 A cold front is currently spreading east across the area this afternoon. The front had roughly made it to the Highway 65 corridor early this afternoon. Temperatures behind the front are in the lower 60s with temperatures in the 70s ahead of the front. Dry conditions will occur on Sunday as highs warm into the upper 60s to the lower 70s.
305 PM CDT Sat May 20 2017 Quiet weather expected to continue tonight-Sunday, as low-level high pressure moves across the Heartland.
A cold front will slide east across central Indiana overnight and Sunday.
413 PM CDT Sat May 20 2017 Light showers and patchy drizzle associated with a slow moving upper low have been fairly persistent all day and will continue across the area this afternoon. As the low tracks off to the northeast any remaining showers should begin to taper off. Temps could reach near freezing in our northwest counties where we have a Frost Advisory in effect.
Surface cold front now extends from east of Grove to Tahlequah to Durant.
347 PM CDT Sat May 20 2017 (Tonight and Sunday) Moist air overrunning the cold front will likely allow the development of isolated to scattered showers south of Interstate 20 tonight and Sunday. Temperatures will stay cooler Sunday.
Skies will continue to clear this afternoon and evening as high pressure builds into the area.
345 PM MDT Sat May 20 2017 Northwesterly flow has returned to the western slope this Saturday afternoon as low pressure that affected the region earlier this week continues to head eastward in the high plains. This trough will zip eastward across the UT/CO border on Sunday, resulting in a better chance for more widespread convection during the day. While the higher terrain should see showers and perhaps a rumble or thunder first, some of these showers will likely move off higher elevations and affect some valleys as well.
Latest models do take upper low more north and over the Red River valley Sunday morning. Upper low moves remains over nrn MN Sunday night.
301 PM MDT Sat May 20 2017 The early afternoon GOES water vapor loop showed the potent upper low that brought the heavy rain and snow to the CWA the past few days centered over central NE. High temperatures Sunday will be 5-10 degrees warmer than Saturday with mid 50s to mid 60s.
234 PM CDT Sat May 20 2017 Stratus continues to wrap around behind the upper low as it tracks out of north central Kansas and into Iowa over the next several hours. Overnight lows drop into the lower 40s across the area, as do the dewpoints, and could see some patchy fog in low spots after the recent days rainfall.
The broad upper level low will continue to spin over the far northern CONUS, allowing for another disturbance or two to circulate around the backside of the low. These weak embedded waves will bring a quick shot of precipitation to the region with activity generally being confined to the higher terrain.
A weakening high pressure center producing robust onshore winds this aftn will diminish as the ridge center sinks southward somewhat to a position near the FL/GA border early Sun. Lows will remain above normal in the low to mid 70s. Max temps will be in the lower 90s inland and mid-upper 80s at the coast. A weak frontal trough will approach Central Florida late Sunday night, increasing precip coverage across the area.
The upper low that has brought the recent active weather has lifted northeastward over the central High Plains early this morning and will head toward the Missouri Valley later today. A surface cold front has moved south of the forecast area. The last piece of jet energy rounding the base of the trough is moving across the forecast area at this time. Cold advection behind the front will be fairly robust with highs in the lower to middle 70s today.
559 PM CDT Sat May 20 2017 Cold front now moving through western Missouri will continue to progress eastward tonight. Cooler and drier air will filter into the area behind the front tonight. Carney The global models are in relatively good agreement that the upper low that will be along the U.
Tonight and Sunday The latest rap analysis and satellite/radar imagery show low pressure centered over western Iowa, and associated warm front extending east across central Illinois/Indiana early this afternoon. Arcing band of rain is lifting north across central Wisconsin, and approaching the Highway 29 corridor. As the low pressure tracks across the region, precip trends are the main forecast concern. Low pressure will swing northeast into the northern Mississippi Valley and western Great Lakes by late tonight. Arcing band of light to moderate rain will lift north ahead of the low and across northern Wisconsin during the evening. But moisture wrapping around the low will return occasional light showers to central and north- central WI, mainly during the afternoon. Highs will range from the low 50s over the west to around 60 in the east.
As of 08z, a closed upper level low centered across south central Nebraska. At the surface, a low pressure center was across northeast Kansas with a cold front oriented north to south from eastern Kansas into northern Texas. As the low and cold front push east of the area, expect precipitation to come to an end for much of the by dawn. High pressure will build across the central plains late this evening into the overnight. Cloud cover is expected to clear late this evening allowing overnight lows to dip into the low to middle 40s. SUNDAY, AN INTENSE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. WHILE A SHORTER WAVE Length UPPER TROUGH DIGS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.
A low pressure disturbance over northern Idaho will slide southeastward over this area this afternoon and evening.
149 PM EDT Sat May 20 2017 Rain chances will increase Sunday with the approach of a cold front. Thus, while temperatures were slow to warm outside of the nearly cloud free areas in the vicinity of MGW, better warming should take place through the afternoon as the upper ridge builds and warm advection increases. Building upper ridge will shift eastward as low pressure in the midwest lifts northeastward toward the great lakes. Sufficient warming aloft and increasing cloud cover will support warmer than average low temperatures. Have slowed increasing PoPs for the overnight until deeper moisture and lift approaches with the advancing cold front. Rain chances are expected to escalate into Sunday as Great Plains low pressure digs toward the Upper Mississippi Valley and shunts a cold front across the midwest and over the Upper Ohio.
0 inches area-wide, with the highest values occurring during the evening to overnight hours.
The presence of an upper level speed max/shrtwv trof and development of se low level flow along with mid level LRs around 7.
Otherwise, an upper closed low over the Plains will move northeast into the upper Midwest tonight with drier air and clearing eventually moving in from the northwest.
1202 PM CDT Sat May 20 2017 Strong upper low will continue to lift northeastward today and tonight right across our eastern zones as evidenced by upper QG forcing. Typical for a mature cyclone, the shower activity will become a bit more scattered on the southwest flank of the occlusion as the day progresses, especially from Sioux City to Storm Lake, and northward to Sioux Falls and Yankton. Despite the high pops in the trowal locations, opted for an occasional wording to the showers where categorical pops are present today, as the radar is showing a rather intermittent rain regime. Warmed up the lower pop areas forecast for this afternoon, basically in northwest IA and extreme southeast SD over guidance values.
High pressure to slowly settle south over the region on Sunday which will yield a fine end to the weekend as highs again climb into the upper 60s and lower 70s.
255 PM CDT Sat May 20 2017 Upper low moving into the forecast area will continue to generate a few showers late this afternoon into early this evening along/north of I80, but they do end a couple of hours past midnight in our extreme northeastern counties. Breezy northwest winds on Sunday, but a little warmer back into the 60s, with warmest readings in the upper 60s in our southwest forecast areas.
As for temperatures today, since we are starting out cooler than originally forecast, in the upper 40s to mid 60s, went close to guidance or even a degree or two lower for highs due to cloud cover and precipitation.
356 PM EDT Sat May 20 2017 High pressure moves east tonight and Sunday. The only exceptions will be in and around the NYC metro area where lows will only fall into the lower 50s and across the Long Island pine barrens where upper 30s will be possible. High pressure slowly moves offshore as a frontal boundary starts to approach the region.
though additional SHRA and a few TSRA may develop this afternoon and evening along/ahead of a cold front that will move SE through the state. This will be ahead of a cold front pushing into the state from the west.
The mid/upper level low will lift slowly northeast across Nebraska today and into the Upper Midwest by late tonight. A brisk and cooler northwest surface flow will prevail in the systems wake today with any lingering showers exiting the area during the morning. Clouds will be slow to scour in the moist cyclonic flow around the departing surface/low level cyclone with even limited heating tending to develop some diurnal stratocu in areas that partially clear. The weekend will finish dry and warmer with highs closer to mid- May climo.
The upper low will move across MN with cyclonic flow lingering through Sunday.
Latest models continued to advertise a strong ridge of high pressure aloft building over the region this coming week.
trend for the CWA for the period is for clearing with decreasing winds as high pressure builds over the area. and the approach of surface ridging and slackening winds. with high pressure east of the region.
126 PM EDT Sat May 20 2017 High pressure in Canada will slowly build into the area through the weekend.
637 PM EDT Sat May 20 2017 High pressure well to the north of the state will slide to the south and east tonight and be centered over the eastern seaboard on Sunday morning.
Most areas over the plains will stay above freezing, though some higher areas over the Palmer and Cheyenne ridges may dip below for a short time.
247 PM MDT Sat May 20 2017 At 2 pm, winds are generally light across the CWA, except in the Kansas border counties where northwest winds have been gusting over 20 mph closer to the low pressure system surface and aloft. In northern El Paso County, temperatures are forecast to be around freezing, but the duration should be short-lived. Low temperatures will be in the 20s to lower 30s across the high valleys and mountains. High temperatures will be some 5 to 10 degrees Fahrenheit warmer than today with increasing temperatures aloft.
Basically, look for good chances for precipitation (mainly rain in the 12Z model soundings) to continue overnight tonight across the forecast area in the deformation zone where warm conveyer belt processes (and eventually TROWAL airstream) will continue to feed low/mid level moisture in ascending fashion back around to the northwest and west of the upper low circulation over this cwa.
The upper level ridge has held strong across the forecast area today with only a couple of isolated showers/storms so far. Current water vapor imagery and RAP upper air analysis indicates a closed low spinning across the Central Plains with a ridge stretching northward from the Carolina coast into the Great Lakes. The high PW values and persistent moisture advection ahead of the front will lead to QPF values in excess of 2 inches in a few locations and expect localized flooding will be possible. The cold front will remain to the west of the area throughout the day on Sunday with showers and storms continuing. Widespread cloud cover and precipitation will lead to cooler temperatures on Sunday and have reduced highs by a couple of degrees with highs generally in the mid to upper 70s for most valley locations.
08Z water vapor loop shows a strong closed low near the CO/NE border. At the surface, low pressure is located over northeast KS with a warm front draped across northern MO into central IL.
330 PM EDT Sat May 20 2017 High pressure will slowly retreat off the east coast through Sunday, maintaining rain-free weather, for most of the area.
local radars at mid afternoon showed numerous storms across our CWA focused along and east of a weak prefrontal trough from Greenwood to Natchez. The cold front still back over the ArkLaTex region and won't make it through into our CWA until Sunday. Ahead of the prefrontal trough resided a moist airmass that has become unstable with daytime heating. Some Hi-res models have the highest rainfall of 2-3 inches with locally higher amounts over our southeast this afternoon and evening. The cold front is expected to enter our northwest zones shortly after sunrise and push slowly southeast through the day. As daytime heating occurs, strong to marginally severe thunderstorms may develop along and just ahead of the cold front.
402 PM EDT Sat May 20 2017 A cold front will move east through the region as low pressure lifts northeast through the Upper Great Lakes.
/Issued 255 AM CDT Sat May 20 2017/ Low level moisture has been scoured out by the cold front.
Deep layer moisture continues to increase ahead of an approaching upper level trough and associated cold front. Lows will be in the lower 70s.
This cluster of storms is being lingering there for hours at the tail end of the cold front. Went ahead with a blend of HRRR and RAP solutions where the cold front continues to push slowly to the southeast with slight chances for strong to severe thunderstorms to develop for the period with moderate confidence on locally heavy rain capable of producing localized flooding. A second round of severe thunderstorms is possible along and west of Interstate 35 on Sunday as an upper level low pressure system over the northern Plains moves towards the Upper Midwest. The surface boundary/cold front is expected to stall or slowly push back to the north over the coastal Plains and brings southeasterly winds to the Rio Grande Plains.
A cold front will approach East Arkansas by sunset and sweep across the Midsouth overnight. Dew points are in the low 70s with expected high temperatures in the low to middle 80s. Sunday will be much cooler.
300 PM CDT Sat May 20 2017 Warm front has pushed northward across most of the forecast area, and was just starting to come into the areas from Galesburg to Lacon at 2 pm. Main issue for this part of the forecast will be with convective redevelopment ahead of the cold front, which is currently back in western Missouri.
1258 PM CDT Sat May 20 2017 The short term concerns are evolution of the rain shield over the area this morning and possible development of convection over the eastern cwa into tonight as the upper trough swings through. Surge of moisture ahead of central CONUS upper trough now lifting into southern MN.
447 PM EDT Sat May 20 2017 Shower and thunderstorm chances will increase by Sunday afternoon as moisture increases ahead of an approaching cold front.
410 PM EDT Sat May 20 2017 Rain chances will increase Sunday with the approach of a cold front. Building upper ridge will shift eastward as low pressure in the midwest lifts northeastward toward the great lakes. Sufficient warming aloft and increasing cloud cover will support warmer than average low temperatures. Have slowed increasing PoPs for the overnight until deeper moisture and lift approaches with the advancing cold front.
An occluded front stretching east from the low will swing north through the forecast area between 06-13z Sunday. Additionally, winds will diminish in the trough axis that defines the occluded front. We will see visibilities drop with the weaker winds and CIGS will remain IFR until the trough swings through. The upper low will move across MN with cyclonic flow lingering through Sunday.
307 PM EDT Sat May 20 2017 Cool high pressure settles over the area tonight. High pressure slides east on Sunday.
Currently mostly cloudy conditions are persistent over the area as low pressure continues to slowly move east of the CWA.
Upper low was still spinning in the central Rockies this morning, and was finally making a push to the east toward southwest Nebraska. Continued moisture transport from the Southern Plains into Nebraska and Iowa ahead of the low was providing ample fuel for precipitation as impulses rotate into the region.
Per water vapor imagery, the forecast in the short term and into the early portion of the extended will be dominated by the slow movement of a closed mid/upper level low circulating over central Nebraska this afternoon. The upper low is forecast to move into central Minnesota Sunday morning, then into southern Ontario Sunday evening.
630 PM EDT Sat May 20 2017 Low pressure near KC will track slowly north lifting a warm front across the forecast area tonight. The low will move across the Western Lakes Sunday forcing a cold front across the forecast area. Warm front across southern Ohio to push north overnight. Temps will remain steady or slowly rise as warm front lifts NE of the forecast area overnight. Meanwhile the low pressure system near KC will lift into the Western Lakes overnight. Models have the trailing cold front into WRN IN by daybreak Sunday. Expect second more widespread round of convection overnight and toward morning ahead of the cold front.
609 PM EDT Sat May 20 2017 A cold front will move east through the region as low pressure lifts northeast through the Upper Great Lakes.
249 PM EDT Sat May 20 2017 A cold front is positioned across southern Virginia.
/Today through Tonight/ Large upper trough continues to impact the mid-section of the country and is currently spinning over NE with fetch of moisture pushing ahead of it into Iowa. As for temperatures cloud cover to remain across much of the CWA today into tonight, with some breaks possible in the far south/east as the warm front lifts northward. Push of colder air into the state on the backside of the system tonight as H85 temps actually drop below freezing.
Above normal temperatures this weekend as high pressure builds along the West Coast. Many locations are running several degrees warmer than yesterday as several degrees above normal for late May. Away from the coast it will be another hot day with above normal temps as high pressure remains overhead.
125 PM EDT Sat May 20 2017 Low pressure over the southern Plains will move slowly northeast into the Upper Great Lakes this weekend causing showers and thunderstorms at times across our area through Sunday morning, with best chances late today through tonight.
The cloud cover associated with the low pressure system has been slow to move out, but it should exit the area by this evening, leaving everyone with clear skies.
Current satellite and upper-air analysis reveals that northern Arizona remains under the influence of a broad longwave trough that spans much of the United States.
Although, can't rule out new development along the cold front that is currently pushing through Southern Missouri and Northern Arkansas. The cold front will push through the CWA tonight into Sunday. Cooler and drier air will begin to filter into the Mid-South behind the front.
345 PM EDT Sat May 20 2017 Low pressure near KC will track slowly north lifting a warm front across the forecast area tonight. The low will move across the Western Lakes Sunday forcing a cold front across the forecast area. Warm front currently across Central Ohio with some convection just NE of the frontal boundary. Temps will remain steady or slowly rise as warm front lifts NE of the forecast area overnight. Meanwhile the low pressure system near KC will lift into the Western Lakes overnight. Models have the trailing cold front into WRN IN by daybreak Sunday. Expect second more widespread round of convection overnight ahead of the cold front.
444 PM EDT Sat May 20 2017 Through Sunday: A large dome of upper level high pressure can be observed on water vapor imagery stretching from the mid Atlantic coast to Bermuda. Clockwise motion around the high continues responsible for the persistent east southeast winds, mainly 10 to 15 mph.
255 PM EDT Sat May 20 2017 An elongated area of high pressure currently located off the Mid-Atlantic coast with mid-upper level ridging is providing easterly flow across SW Florida through the period. On Sunday, the ridge to our north begins to flatten out and will weaken our prevailing easterly flow. A mid/upper-level ridge over the region will be suppressed southward for the first few days of the coming week as a broad trough spreads over the central and eastern part of the country.
Temperatures should be a touch warmer with a little better mixing.
1258 PM CDT Sat May 20 2017 The upper level low will track across Nebraska today and into northwest Iowa by tonight.
354 PM EDT Sat May 20 2017 High pressure well to the north of the state will slide to the south and east tonight and be centered over the eastern seaboard on Sunday morning.
At 2 PM MDT convective clouds were forming over higher terrain ahead of a short wave trough coming south from the Idaho panhandle. On Sunday the short wave trough will be southeast of our CWA and skies will be sunny again.