Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Onshore flow has brought cooler temperatures today with weak trough developing along the coast. Temperatures trend upwards mid to late week as Four Corners ridge builds.
620 PM CDT Tue Aug 11 2020 259 PM CDT With a drier airmass moving in behind yesterday's impressive derecho, quiet conditions will continue through tomorrow as high pressure centers over the area this evening. Subsidence aloft and high pressure at the surface should help limit any precip chances through Wednesday. Temperatures during the day will be slightly warmer than today with highs in the mid 80s. East winds will result in cooler temps near the lake in the upper 70s.
839 PM CDT Tue Aug 11 2020 Cooler and drier air will remain over the area tonight through tomorrow. The cold front that has moved through the area will remain close to southeast Illinois, keeping a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms over southeast Illinois late tonight through tomorrow. The cold front has moved through most of the CWA, but still remains close to southeast counties.
625 PM CDT Tue Aug 11 2020 Cooler and drier air will remain over the area tonight through tomorrow. The cold front that has moved through the area will remain close to southeast Illinois, keeping a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms over southeast Illinois late tonight through tomorrow. The cold front has moved through most of the CWA, but still remains close to southeast counties.
A mid level trough, and its associated weak sfc front, will continue to cross the region this evening. Northern counties will also be under the growing influence of building high pressure and drier air, which will further limit rain chance to areas south and east of Pittsburgh.
1047 PM EDT Tue Aug 11 2020 A weak cold front will cross the area the rest of tonight with little fanfare from here on out. Main cold front, signaled most by dewpoints falling off into the 50s as close as St. Though better upper support by far is well to our east, an isolated shower could still occur as the cold front moves across western NY through midnight. Otherwise, rest of the night will gradually become less humid and cooler. Afternoon temperatures should still be able to reach the lower to mid 80s, but dew points will continue to fall throughout the day and result in a more comfortable day overall when compared to recent afternoons.
1031 PM EDT Tue Aug 11 2020 A surface cold front will move eastward across the North Country this evening, with scattered showers and thunderstorms through midnight.
848 PM CDT Tue Aug 11 2020 (Issued 848 PM CDT Tue Aug 11 2020) High pressure will reside over the western Great Lakes into Wed nt. Gehring (Issued 322 PM CDT Tue Aug 11 2020) Tonight through Wednesday night: High pressure with dry air will remain in control tonight through Wednesday. High temperatures tomorrow will be just a little warmer than today.
1037 PM EDT Tue Aug 11 2020 A surface cold front will move eastward across the North Country this evening, with scattered showers and thunderstorms through midnight.
/EC/ The upper ridging that was dominating the southern tier of the CONUS is losing ground to a wave/storm system moving into the mid Mississippi River Valley this evening. Tomorrows temps again should be well into the 90s, though a boundary drifting across the northern tier of the state may result in some cooler temps just to the north. Given the trend of the NBM of late to undercut the lower temps and overdo the pops.
Expect VFR conditions across the Rio Grande Valley tonight into early Wednesday morning as the 500mb subtropical ridge across west Texas continues to provide subsidence across south Texas. /issued 226 PM CDT Tue Aug 11 2020/ SHORT TERM (Tonight through Wednesday Night): Mid-level high pressure continues to build across West Texas, with little change expected to the forecast.
High pressure will continue to influence the region tonight, keeping skies mostly clear. Otherwise, a mix of clouds and sun are expected with highs in the low to mid 80s. warmer north where more sunshine is expected. Better chances for scattered showers and thunderstorms move in Wednesday night as a southerly low-level jet develops and continues to bring in warmer air to the lower atmosphere.
A cold front is still on track to arrive Wednesday afternoon and evening, which will bring an additional wave of cloud cover and cooler temperatures.
749 PM EDT Tue Aug 11 2020 Thunderstorms expected into tonight with a passing cold front. Thunderstorm activity will increase this evening as a cold front pushes into western NY. High pressure builds in from the west tomorrow and the forecast is looking more and more dry as frontal boundary dips well south of the region. Temperatures will be cooler than today but highs will still be well into the 80s, however humidity will be much lower.
Models are currently not depicting any morning stratus development, but with little change in the upper air pattern and south to southeast winds keeping the low levels saturated see no reason to not go with persistence and add in MVFR ceilings lasting from 09z to 15z at the San Antonio terminals, and a mix of VFR/MVFR cigs at AUS. The subtropical ridge remains centered generally over West Texas. High pressure at the surface is centered over the Gulf and winds across our CWA are from the southeast to southwest. Subsidence under the ridge will keep rain out of most areas. The upper ridge will be a bit stronger and suppress nearly all convection Wednesday.
Afternoon highs will generally be in the low to mid 90s.
Storms moving slowly east as mid level flow is more west due to a trough moving through the PacNW. Models prog the tropical moisture quickly surging north due to moderate southerly flow in between a trough off the CA coast and an anticyclone over the SW.
/EC/ Prior discussion below: The upper ridging that was dominating the southern tier of the CONUS is losing ground to a wave/storm system moving into the mid Mississippi River Valley this evening. Tomorrows temps again should be well into the 90s, though a boundary drifting across the northern tier of the state may result in some cooler temps just to the north. Given the trend of the NBM of late to undercut the lower temps and overdo the pops.
802 PM EDT Tue Aug 11 2020 A weak cold front will cross the area late this evening and early overnight. Have seen a few showers over Niagara and Orleans county since late afternoon and the main cold front is just starting to slip across the lower Niagara River back toward Long Point on Lake Erie. Though better upper support by far is to our east, could still be a shower or maybe a thunderstorm as the cold front moves across western NY rest of this evening. Afternoon temperatures should still be able to reach the lower to mid 80s, but dew points are expected to fall throughout the day and result in a more comfortable day overall when compared to recent afternoons.
A mid level trough, and its associated weak sfc front, will continue to cross the region tonight. Northern counties will also be under the growing influence of building high pressure and drier air, which will further limit rain chance to areas south and east of Pittsburgh.
802 PM EDT Tue Aug 11 2020 Thunderstorms expected into tonight with a passing cold front. Thunderstorm activity will increase this evening as a cold front pushes into western NY. High pressure builds in from the west tomorrow and the forecast is looking more and more dry as frontal boundary dips well south of the region. Temperatures will be cooler than today but highs will still be well into the 80s, however humidity will be much lower.
646 PM CDT Tue Aug 11 2020 Sprawling high pressure centered over the Ohio Valley will maintain its western extent over the Upper Midwest thru late tonight, making for a gradual increase in high clouds from the west but otherwise mainly clear and cool conditions tonight with lows down into the upper 50s to lower 60s. A small buckle in the upper level zonal flow combined with the approach of a warm front over the northern-central Plains may be just enough to spark a few isolated-scattered showers and t-storms overnight in western MN which may spread across the rest of the WFO MPX coverage area during the day tomorrow.
801 PM EDT Tue Aug 11 2020 A mid level short wave trough resides over northern FL overnight while weak high pressure extends across central FL from the Atlantic to the Gulf. The short wave trough may help generate some late night or early morning convection while the high pressure keeps a light and variable flow in place. High pressure across the waters will becomes better established by week/s end with light flow giving way to east and southeast winds. The high pressure settles south of FL during the weekend with southwest and west prevailing winds that remain on the light side.
Forcing associated with this elevated boundary was also prevalent at 500mb in the form of an upper level trough which appears to be much stronger than earlier progs were suggesting. Couple these features with PWATS near 2 inches, MUCAPE values in excess of 1000J/kg across our northwest third and an expected 850mb jet near 30kts or so continuing to feed the trough and you have the ingredients for heavy rainfall.
Surface analysis depicts weak high pressure extending from the western Atlantic across central/south Florida and into the central Gulf of Mexico. Aloft, deep layered ridging prevails over our region.
/issued 334 PM CDT Tue Aug 11 2020/ Today has been one of our drier days this week with a pop up shower or thunderstorm here and there and we should remain generally on the low side in regards to coverage in our area.
Upstream across the Plains, mid level heights were rising a bit, with moisture increasing ahead of low pressure and a warm front. The lower level troughing and that narrow band of mid cloud may still be around for a while this morning and early afternoon, aided by a vort max and pocket of additional clouds (now seen rolling through WI). Highs today will be in the lower to middle 80s most areas. High Impact Weather Potential: None Pattern Synopsis: Amplified ridging looks to set up from the Great Lakes into Hudson Bay on Thursday as troughing continues to depart towards the Atlantic. A relatively strong jet/troughing will begin to make its way from the Pacific NW into the northern Great Plains during the period.
Southeast winds pick up by noontime, and dewpoints should rise into the 60s by mid-day and into the lower 70s across eastern North Dakota by this afternoon. Meanwhile, H700 temps will increase across central and eastern North Dakota, creating a capping environment as a cold front moves into the far western part of the state.
Currently the flow is fairly zonal but will become anticyclonically curves with heights slowly building today as energetic jet over western Canada starts carving out the next trough. The active portion of the trough won't make it to MI until later this coming weekend.
325 AM EDT Wed Aug 12 2020 High pressure extending westward toward the Carolinas from the central Atlantic will maintain light south winds along with seasonably warm and humid conditions. Weak upper low off the SE coast currently firing a few TSTMs, may send outflow and marine showers our way, and will monitor progress in case an MWS is needed for waterspouts, but land impacts appear low this morning and this feature offshore is expected to remain offshore, a drift NE. Similar regime Thursday except we may see more convective intrusion onto the coast in the morning as the weak upper low offshore lifts a little closer, so a rainy start possible for the coast or Cape Fear region early Thursday, then new diurnal convection in afternoon.
Northern counties will also be under the growing influence of building high pressure and drier air, which will further limit rain chance to areas south and east of Pittsburgh.
Do expect an uptick of activity Wednesday as a mid-level trof advances across the forecast area with PWAT values increasing above 2 inches. The region remains under a ridge aloft that stretches from Northern Mexico. At the surface a ridge remains centered along the northern gulf coast/around Southeast Louisiana. Wednesday the upper ridge centered over Mexico will begin to shift west. A light onshore flow is expected through the weekend as high pressure remains along the northern gulf coast.
1210 AM CDT Wed Aug 12 2020 Sprawling high pressure centered over the Ohio Valley will maintain its western extent over the Upper Midwest thru late tonight, making for a gradual increase in high clouds from the west but otherwise mainly clear and cool conditions tonight with lows down into the upper 50s to lower 60s. A small buckle in the upper level zonal flow combined with the approach of a warm front over the northern-central Plains may be just enough to spark a few isolated-scattered showers and t-storms overnight in western MN which may spread across the rest of the WFO MPX coverage area during the day tomorrow.
Low amplitude upper ridging will extend north from the southern plains into southern Canada today, with troughing in place over the Pac NW and the Hudson Bay. Locally, a weak upper low will shift east from southern Missouri into western Kentucky today.
A front will remain quasi-stationary over the Ohio Valley or southern Indiana through this weekend as an upper low opens up and drifts across the Ohio Valley.
Strong high pressure will rebuild over the region later this weekend and into the weekend. However, the ridge then returns for more dry and hot conditons by the weekend.
139 AM EDT Wed Aug 12 2020 A weak cold front will cross the area overnight. A cold front is located across western NY late tonight. Afternoon temperatures should still be able to reach the lower to mid 80s, but dew points will continue to fall throughout the day and result in a more comfortable day overall when compared to recent afternoons. A broad ridge of high pressure will extend from Hudson Bay to the Great Lakes Wednesday night and Thursday.
337 AM CDT Wed Aug 12 2020 Scattered convection has been maintained across SE OK and west central AR this morning within warm advection zone north of sfc warm front which resides across NE TX. The aforementioned sfc warm front appears likely to serve as a favorable baroclinic corridor for additional storm chances over the next several days as it reorients more NNW-SSE.
High pressure centered over El Paso today will bring about mostly clear skies and hot temperatures, possibly record breaking temperatures (see climate section below). The upper level ridge of high pressure is then forecast to edge closer to the region Thursday with a corresponding increase in heights and low level thickness values along with a strengthening mid level capping inversion.
(Today and tonight) Currently, storms are moving through western Kansas and developing southward along the low level jet into eastern parts of the panhandles. Some of these showers and storms may make it just across the border into western Oklahoma where they will quickly lose the support of the low level jet. With a building ridge and an abundance of moisture in the area, heat indices of 103-108 degrees Fahrenheit will be widespread this afternoon.
145 AM EDT Wed Aug 12 2020 With the Bermuda high offshore and a persistent upper level trough in the Lower Mississippi Valley, a moist and unstable air mass will remain across the area through the week. Overnight lows will be in the lower 70s. The models show a mid level trough over the eastern Carolinas and Georgia and a closed low over the central MS Valley, slowly moving east. Afternoon highs in the upper 80s and low 90s expected with overnight lows in the low to mid 70s. Mid level trough through Ohio and Lower Mississippi Valley expected to slowly push east and through the region over the weekend.
CD Chattanooga Airport, TN 93 74 91 73 87 / 40 20 70 40 80 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 91 72 90 71 87 / 40 20 70 50 60 Oak Ridge, TN 92 72 91 71 86 / 40 40 60 30 60 Tri Cities Airport, TN 88 67 87 68 84 / 60 20 60 40 60.
222 AM EDT Wed Aug 12 2020 Temperatures will be slightly cooler Wednesday behind a cold front. Most of the region will experience quiet weather through the end of the work week, with a slight chance for a shower or thunderstorm over Northeast PA and the lower Catskills. Dry air will filter into NY behind a cold front moving through PA. The period will be dry and seasonable as high pressure over SE Canada noses into the area and supresses moisture and afternoon convection to the south.
309 AM CDT Wed Aug 12 2020 Generally warmer conditions with less convective chances will dominate today. This will be due to heights increasing today with an upper level ridge expanding over the southwestern CONUS. Slightly warmer temperatures today will result in a deeply mixed atmosphere. Although temperatures will be warmer today with increasing thicknesses temperatures look to come up short on the caprock of reaching 105F. We have went with the highest guidance numbers for today which have temperatures below criteria.
Afternoon high temperatures will top out in the lower to middle 80s. An upper low evident on 08z/3am water vapor imagery over the Ozarks will meander slowly eastward over the next 24 hours, spreading clouds and scattered showers/thunder across southern Illinois. Elsewhere around central Illinois, dry conditions will be the rule with afternoon highs in the lower to middle 80s. A few showers will linger south of I-70 this evening, but will then dissipate and/or shift further southeast overnight as the upper low pivots into western Kentucky.
SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday): 500mb high pressure remains centered over West Texas and will build to around 595dam today into Thursday. High pressure extends across much of the state with very dry mid-level northeasterly winds flowing across Deep South Texas. Highs should range from the mid to upper 90s in the Lower Rio Grande Valley to around 100 near Falcon Lake.
Upper level trough moving through the area Wednesday. Little if any shower activity expected with the trough just an increase in cloud cover. Trough east of the area by Wednesday night.
For this afternoon and evening, it will be the inverted trough west of the CWA for the focus of rw/trw initiation. Area radar is showing some convection already forming along the trough west of the CWA. For Wednesday and Thursday, upper ridge to remain in place over the central portion of the country, providing west to northwest upper flow. The upper level pattern starts with high pressure over New Mexico and Arizona with low pressure in Canada with troughiness extending south into the northern plains.
207 AM EDT Wed Aug 12 2020 Broad low pressure will linger over the Carolinas through the weekend. Similar temps with highs in the upper 80s and lows in the lower 70s. An upper-level trough will remain quasi-stationary/slow eastward moving through the end of the week. Widespread cloud cover and lower heights will help keep highs in the mid to upper 80s, however southerly flow at the surface will maintain dewpoint temperatures in the low to mid 70s keeping muggy conditions around through the period.
442 AM EDT Wed Aug 12 2020 Under mostly clear to partly cloudy skies and east to southeast winds of 5 to 10 mph, temperatures are in the lower to mid 80s along the island chain. A western Atlantic ridge axis extending across the Sunshine State will splinter, resulting in a decelerating flow.
1153 PM CDT Tue Aug 11 2020 Cooler and drier air will remain over the area tonight through tomorrow. The cold front that has moved through the area will remain close to southeast Illinois, keeping a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms over southeast Illinois late tonight through tomorrow. The cold front has moved through most of the CWA, but still remains close to southeast counties.
338 AM EDT Wed Aug 12 2020 Behind departing cold front today, seasonably warm and mainly dry weather returns through the remainder of the week.
159 AM EDT Wed Aug 12 2020 Behind departing cold front today, seasonably warm and mainly dry weather returns through the remainder of the week.
434 AM EDT Wed Aug 12 2020 An upper level low pressure system will meander near the area bringing off and on shower and thunderstorm activity to the region through the weekend. There remains some model uncertainty as to how exactly to handle the mid and upper level energy/trough/weak low moving out of the mid Mississippi Valley and across the Ohio Valley through the end of the week.
Yesterday's weak cold front will remain stalled to the south today (and through much of the week) as high pressure builds across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. Given frontal location and the growing influence of building high pressure, rain chances will be limited to areas south of Pittsburgh, with greatest PoPs across the WV and MD ridges.
1233 AM CDT Wed Aug 12 2020 Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms continue to develop across the region as an area of low pressure approaches the SW corner of the state. NBM tends to agree with a drier, warmer solution on Wednesday, however did lean a bit more towards the wetter solution on Wednesday. By Thursday, upper level ridge will strengthen across the western CONUS, putting Arkansas in continued NW flow.
252 AM EDT Wed Aug 12 2020 A cold front will gradually slide offshore today. Slightly cooler and drier air follows the front for the remainder of the work week. High pressure in the Canadian Maritimes will allow for relatively dry and seasonable temperatures over the weekend. A cold front is currently moving across the forecast area roughly from west to east. As a result, expect a dry day today with temperatures near where they were yesterday if not a few degrees cooler. High pressure to our north makes its influence felt across New England in the wake of the cold front.
It will be hot again today as the subtropical ridge axis in the mid and upper levels, along with a stout low-level thermal ridge remain the dominant weather feature of interest.
Other than nudging up thunder chances to PROB30 range for the ern terminals due to less capping as the ridge axis shifts more wwd, no changes to previous TAF thinking. Do expect an uptick of activity Wednesday as a mid-level trof advances across the forecast area with PWAT values increasing above 2 inches. The region remains under a ridge aloft that stretches from Northern Mexico. At the surface a ridge remains centered along the northern gulf coast/around Southeast Louisiana. Wednesday the upper ridge centered over Mexico will begin to shift west. A light onshore flow is expected through the weekend as high pressure remains along the northern gulf coast.
318 AM CDT Wed Aug 12 2020 Another humid morning across the Mid-South, but current 3 AM temperatures are about 5 degrees cooler compared to yesterday. Temperatures today are expected to bounce back to near normal temperatures with highs in the lower 90s and lows tonight in the lower 70s.
Northern counties will also be under the growing influence of building high pressure and drier air, which will further limit rain chance to areas south and east of Pittsburgh. A weak cold front continues to crawl towards the Mason-Dixon Line this morning.
Sunshine and fair weather cumulus clouds have been ample across Nebraska and Iowa today as high pressure built in across the area. Over the weekend expect a cold front to sweep through the area and bring a better chance of showers and storms.
124 AM EDT Wed Aug 12 2020 Temperatures will be slightly cooler Wednesday behind a cold front. Most of the region will experience quiet weather through the end of the work week, with a slight chance for a shower or thunderstorm over Northeast PA and the lower Catskills. Dry air will filter into NY behind a cold front moving through PA. A frontal boundary will settle across central or southern PA into Thursday, as high pressure edges in from Quebec.
Developing southeast winds will keep lakeside locations a little cooler, in the upper 70s and lower 80s. Dry conditions will continue under the influence of high pressure tonight into Thursday.
534 AM EDT Wed Aug 12 2020 Behind departing cold front today, seasonably warm and mainly dry weather returns through the remainder of the week.