Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
A low pressure system will bring a threat for thunderstorms and heavy rain late tonight through Saturday.
high pressure will continue to spin over the Four Corners region into this afternoon. An upper disturbance will round the high pressure area and drop southeast across Colorado this afternoon and evening. the upper level high pressure center will start to drift eastward across Colorado overnight tonight. A weak cold front will drop into the Palmer Divide region late. Mozley Upper ridge slides slowly east toward the plains on Saturday, while frontal boundary drifts south toward the Arkansas River Sat afternoon, with upslope winds and increased low level moisture/instability behind it. Weak upper wave will crest the ridge Sat as well, setting the stage for an upturn in convection across much of the area in the afternoon/evening. Upper ridge continues a slow drift eastward Sun/Mon while low level flow takes on a more sly component by Sun afternoon.
Made some minor tweaks to timing of a broken line of showers and storms expected to develop ahead of a cold front. As we approach daybreak, a pronounced upper level trough and associated sfc cold front extending from Michigan to Oklahoma will begin migrating towards the Ohio Valley.
A warm front will lift northward today across western Kansas. The net result is warmer highs today with around 90F near Elkhart to lower to mid 80s across the eastern zones. A lee trough will continue to deepen through the day, which will result in breezy SE/S winds. This is a result of a 591 dam anticyclone setting up shop right over Kansas.
Another round of convection is forecast to develop over the higher terrain this afternoon and move slowly toward highlands/valleys into the evening hours. Outflow dominant storms are likely given very light steering flow and slightly warmer temperatures. Look for more of the same Saturday with the upper high sitting directly over NM. A few strong storms are likely Saturday afternoon/evening across the northeast quarter as convection moves off of the higher terrain and encounters 15-20kts of southerly inflow and dewpoint temperatures in the mid 40s.
640 AM CDT Fri May 29 2020 A long wave upper level trof was moving through the forecast area early this morning. The upper trof will be moving over this area and be accompanied by additional cold air advection. Elsewhere, cold, dry, high pressure begins to build into the region. Some sprinkles/showers are possible over Iron County in the early afternoon as the cold air works over the warmer waters of Lake Superior to enhance the probability. High pressure settles overhead.
An amplifying ridge will continue it's easterly track today across the Desert Southwest. Relative humidity values will be in the low 20s across portions of Cheyenne and Kit Carson counties in Eastern Colorado. Saturday, the ridge will move across the Central High Plains with high pressure building over the Desert Southwest. A developing lee trough over Eastern Colorado will bring a chance of a few showers and storms to the area Saturday afternoon and evening.
Then, high pressure developing tonight will lead to mostly clear skies through the rest of the weekend. A building upper level ridge over Texas will keep the skies mostly sunny during the day on Saturday. This extra sunshine will push the daytime highs a couple of degrees warmer than what we see today. Upper ridging centered over the Southern Plains will dominant this period's weather. Subtle height weaknesses along the southern edge of mid-upper ridging will open the door for mid to late afternoon low PoPs centered over more southwestern counties surrounding Matagorda Bay. Overall ridging will weaken enough going into mid to late week to allow for more widespread daytime showers and maybe even a storm or two to form along the sea breeze boundary or subsequent outflow boundary for earlier convection initiation/evolution.
/issued 204 AM CDT Fri May 29 2020/ The increasing influence of mid-level ridging and gulf moisture being cut-off signals an anomalously quiet wx period through at least Mon AM. As the ridge builds in from the w the axis and center will remain to the north and that will favor easterly mid- level flow and thus an absence of the lee trof.
Most locations will experience the hottest temperatures of the week today, and it remains warmer than normal through the weekend. Strong ridging is centered directly overhead this morning, with a deep upper low spinning southwest of the California coastline. Moisture increases with dewpoints nearing the low 50s east of Tucson and high-res models are keying in on an axis of instability from Cochise County up through Graham County.
523 AM MDT Fri May 29 2020 Mainly dry weather expected over the next few day along with continued warming temperatures as the upper ridge builds into the state.
As this feature exits the region the ridge of high pressure will cause temperatures to remain well above normal, as readings should be a few degrees warmer then yesterday. An upper level low will begin to make its way northward along the coast on Saturday causing the flow over the Northern Rockies to be southerly.
Closed upper low lifting out of the southern plains across the mid- Mississippi Valley has begun opening up and merging with the larger, broad upper trough moving across the Great Lakes. Merged trough axis passes through the region today/tonight.
919 AM EDT Fri May 29 2020 Strong to severe storms will develop out ahead of an approaching cold front this afternoon with the daytime max heating. Expect the strongest storms to arrive later this evening with the cold front. High pressure building over the Great Lakes will return quiet, dry weather Saturday evening.
Otherwise, temperatures are expected to be be cooler and humidity levels more comfortable across the area.
Skies will gradually fill back in this afternoon as cu builds and convection initiates across the plateau/mtns due to heating and steepened mid lvl lapse rates thanks to the advancing trough axis. A cold front will progress through the area this afternoon and evening with showers and thunderstorms along this front. AD Chattanooga Airport, TN 85 63 82 59 80 / 40 20 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 84 63 80 57 77 / 50 30 10 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 83 61 81 56 77 / 50 30 10 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 82 60 77 52 74 / 50 40 20 0 0.
A building upper level ridge over Texas will keep the skies mostly sunny during the day on Saturday. This extra sunshine will push the daytime highs a couple of degrees warmer than what we see today. Upper ridging centered over the Southern Plains will dominant this period's weather. Subtle height weaknesses along the southern edge of mid-upper ridging will open the door for mid to late afternoon low PoPs centered over more southwestern counties surrounding Matagorda Bay. Overall ridging will weaken enough going into mid to late week to allow for more widespread daytime showers and maybe even a storm or two to form along the sea breeze boundary or subsequent outflow boundary for earlier convection initiation/evolution.
Meanwhile, an upper level ridge is building northward out of the Caribbean. Short Term Update - Large scale ridging will persist through the afternoon. Despite the ridging and dry air aloft, there will be the potential for a few showers and thunderstorms due to the lack of inhibition and seasonably warm surface conditions. Gentle to moderate easterly breezes will relax some through the afternoon due to ridging to our north and day time heating over the mainland.
The upper low that has impacted our weather for the last several days has finally moved east and merged into a trough located over the MS River valley. This leaves northwest flow over our area ahead of a 500mb ridge in the western US. At the surface, high pressure is moving into the Plains out of the eastern Rockies. A frontal boundary in the northeast corner of the state will keep temperatures cooler in the low 70s, but further southwest has potential to reach near 80 degrees.
High pressure will remain in control of North Texas weather with mostly sunny skies and near normal temperatures through the weekend. Dunn Previous Discussion: /Friday through Saturday Night/ North Texas will be on the back side of a departing upper trough on Friday with drier low and mid level air continuing to filter into the region. Mid level ridging will continue to build across the Southern Plains Friday night through Saturday with surface winds gradually becoming more easterly by Saturday afternoon. Another mostly sunny day is expected with highs perhaps a degree or two warmer than Friday. An upper level ridge currently across the Desert Southwest will expand eastward as a trough digs into the eastern Pacific Ocean. The expanding trough will lead to subsident air throughout much of the week.
As the upper low responsible for much of the wet weather of the past week departs and a ridge begins to move in, we will transition into a dry pattern with gradually warming temperatures.
A cold front will drop SE through the state today. or what is left of the upper closed low that has given the area persistent rainfall over the past several days. Behind this trough. a new cold front will drop SE through the state through this afternoon and evening.
609 AM CDT Fri May 29 2020 A weak warm front should lift into ncntl Nebraska today. An upper level disturbance across Oregon this morning should run the ridge across the Rockies and move through wrn and ncntl Nebraska late tonight and early Saturday.
The better upper level forcing related to the upper level jet remains to our southwest, so the higher rain chances will be confined to the Missouri river corridor with only a few hundredths of precipitation expected.
Friday: Finally! The low that has been causing our dreary weather the last several days, is finally shifting off to our east.
A H500 ridge of high pressure will build into the Panhandles from the southwest. With downslope from the NM high terrain as the main ridge axis moves slowly over the Panhandles into the weekend, 20-22C and 23-25C H850 temperatures will advect into the Panhandles today and Saturday respectively. Some data members shows a perturbation in the mean H500 flow over the Raton Mesa which may enhance some lift in the high terrain. This could result in a shower or thunderstorm in the far NW Panhandles, however with weak steering flow under the ridge, precipitation may struggle to reach the NW Panhandles.
Atlc ridge axis across north FL is producing a light SE flow in the low levels.
The weather pattern aloft reflected a couple of closed lows in the Pacific. Upper ridging extended from the desert southwest north over the Rockies, with northwest flow across the plains states, with a trough to the east from Ontario thru the Ohio Valley to the Gulf Coast. At the surface, high pressure was building southeast from the Dakotas across the plains states. Today we will see the western upper ridge build north and east toward the plains with warmer air beginning to advect east of the Rockies/High Plains. For temperatures Saturday, we should see quite the range in highs with upper 60s forecast in our northeast zones where clouds/precip will be a factor, with much warmer low 80s forecast for our sw counties in north central Kansas where dry weather and a warmer airmass resides.
Northwest flow aloft through the period as an upper ridge builds across the western CONUS. A cooler airmass has settled across the region and will continue to lead to daytime temperatures in the 60s. As we lose daytime heating and high pressure builds into the region tonight anticipate clearing sky. With dew points anticipated to be in the low to mid 30s the potential for frost exists. High pressure remains in place on Saturday, leading to a day with sunshine, light winds, and highs in the 60s.
A backdoor cold front is ushering in cool air and a broken deck of mid clouds across far northeastern South Dakota and west central Minnesota at this hour. Clear skies dominate the region otherwise, as high pressure builds in. Dry conditions continue today, as high pressure remains in control.
Aloft, deep troughing is currently across much of the Ohio and Tennessee valley with deep moisture transport from the western GoM northward into the region. Closer to the surface an area of low pressure exists north of the Great Lakes with a cold front extending from the low southward into the Ohio river valley into through the Midsouth. As the cold front continues to progress through the area, an increase in showers and embedded thunderstorms are expected especially in the afternoon hours during peak heating.
This will bring mostly clear and warmer conditions with highs in the mid to upper 70s today, followed by lows in the low to mid 50s.
641 AM EDT Fri May 29 2020 A cold front pushes across the area this afternoon into tonight, slowing a bit east of the piedmont Saturday.
(This evening through Saturday) Quiet weather tonight into Saturday as upper ridge continues to build into the region. Slightly warmer temperatures are expected tomorrow compared to today.
140 PM CDT Fri May 29 2020 Surface obs this afternoon show a cold front is currently passing through PAH, with radar imagery indicating widely scattered showers ahead of the boundary eastward into our area.
302 PM EDT Fri May 29 2020 Mid level trough axis anchored over Lake Michigan mid afternoon will sweep across the local area through the evening hours. Brief increase in mid level ascent tied to this feature will then maintain the chance for a linear axis of low topped showers/isolated thunder to emerge along the attendant secondary cold front.
Axis of highest instability is expected to setup along the higher terrain with MLCAPE approaching 2000 J/kg in spots with 35 kts of effective shear. The Wyoming High Plains will be fighting a cap so biggest question is whether or not convection can sustain itself off of the high terrain. Farther west towards Laramie with the drier boundary layer, impressive inverted-v soundings are forecast with LCL heights near the freezing level and weak boundary level winds supporting dry microburst potential.
236 PM MDT Fri May 29 2020 Generally dry conditions are expected through the weekend with much warmer temperatures as an upper ridge builds into the region.
This may also allow max temps to be a couple degrees warmer by the end of the day as well. Showers will taper off by mid-evening as the upper trough gradually shifts east and a drier airmass begins to advect into the area overnight. A pattern change will occur following this front as the big upper low that had been dictating our weather for the last week will be gone and much drier air will move in behind the frontal passage. A big ridge will develop over Texas and leave our area under northwest flow aloft. The ridge will build more across the region by mid-week and the heat will return as highs reach back into the upper 80s and near 90 degrees.
Strong 594 dm upper anticyclone was centered over SE Arizona at midday. High pressure aloft will build northeastward over Kansas through the short term, resulting in a simple forecast. As a result, minimum temperatures sunrise Saturday will be noticeably warmer, in the upper 50s and lower 60s. Afternoon temperatures in the lower 90s will be common, with mid 90s expected along and west of US 83.
417 PM EDT Fri May 29 2020 Strong to severe storms will develop out ahead of an approaching cold front this afternoon with the daytime max heating. Expect the strongest storms to arrive later this evening with the cold front. No major changes were needed for the overall package as showers and storms continue to fire with advance of the cold front out of the Midwest. Frontal passage is still expected either side of 00Z, and residual deep convection should wind down as the associated mid level trough shunts forcing-for-ascent areas eastward. Isolated shower potential will persist though as the associated thermal trough encroaches.
236 PM CDT Fri May 29 2020 Dry and mild weather will dominate through Saturday as an upper level ridge axis across the southern and central Rockies bends a bit east into the Texas Panhandle and western South Plains. Otherwise, tonight will see modest low level southerly flow and seasonable temperatures in the high 50s to low 60s. RMcQueen An upper ridge currently over the southwestern CONUS will move overhead this weekend.
Highs will be on the cooler side, generally in the lower to mid 60s.
We should see some clearing overnight as high pressure builds in from the east. Skies will then clear for all going into Saturday night as high pressure will be firmly in place overhead.
More cloud cover Saturday night will result in slightly warmer low temperatures, albeit still slightly below normal for the end of May.
Small rain chances return for much of the area on Saturday afternoon as a weak upper low forms over northeast Mexico.
Low temperatures are expected to be above normal in the low 50s to around 60. On Saturday a warm front lifts toward a Yuma to St.
Meanwhile, an upper level ridge reaches northwards out of the Caribbean Sea. The lower level flow hasn't yet become favorable for island cloud lines either.
HiRes Model and TTWRF indicate a few isolated showers and possible isolated thunderstorms over the SW quadrant of the CWA as well as parts of the adjacent waters, which is where the highest amounts of moisture persists.
Cold front is currently approaching Paducah and will move across the area later today. A cold front will push through over the next several hours, followed by SW winds becoming WNW.
SHORT TERM (Tonight through Saturday Night): Cold front moved through this morning and has become stationary south of the river with an upper level trough/low situated across NE Mexico. Both the GFS/EC show spokes of energy rotating around the upper low with occasional clusters of showers with embedded thunderstorms rolling through the CWA, especially the RGV, over the next 36 hours. Temperatures will remain below normal for the last days of May with plenty of clouds and the bouts of rain cooled air to keep the region somewhat cooler (but humid) before calender Summer begins.
Light winds and clear skies tonight will help produce lows at or perhaps a few degrees cooler than usual Late May lows. Then, winds at 850mb, from mainly the east, will help keep the thermal ridge, at that pressure level, well to our west.
The southern flank of an upper level trough continues to slowly swing across the Southeast this afternoon and evening as an upper level ridge quickly builds into the central portion of the CONUS on its heels.
An upper level ridge extended across the Rockies with a disturbance currently indicated just east of the ridge axis in southwest Montana. The latest MET and MAV guidance was much cooler that the previous forecast. With an increase in cloud cover (mostly cloudy across the northeastern half of the area) and a backed easterly wind highs were lowered to the lower 60s northeast, mid 60s central, to the upper 70s far southwest. So still a large temperature difference across the forecast area, so a further westward shift of the cooler temperatures. A warm front is indicated to be from near Akron, CO through Phillipsburg, KS.
This has had a significant impact on potential warming with some areas over Central Idaho running as much as 20 degrees cooler than this time yesterday. Although some thinning in the clouds is expected this afternoon, temperatures are inevitably going to be a bit cooler than forecast and this will also weigh heavily into where any thunderstorms may develop this afternoon/evening. Lingering cloud cover tonight along with steady warming aloft will lead to temperatures 15 to 20 degrees warmer than normal. With normal lows typically in the low 40s, readings in the upper 50s to near 60 tonight will present a rather balmy start to the weekend.
118 PM CDT Fri May 29 2020 A long wave upper level trof was moving through the forecast area early this morning. The upper trof will be moving over this area and be accompanied by additional cold air advection. Elsewhere, cold, dry, high pressure begins to build into the region. Some sprinkles/showers are possible over Iron County in the early afternoon as the cold air works over the warmer waters of Lake Superior to enhance the probability. High pressure settles overhead.
Cold front is currently approaching Paducah and will move across the area later today. This morning, a cold front is situated along the Mississippi River with just a few showers showing up on radar across Middle Tennessee.
219 PM CDT Fri May 29 2020 A fairly nice afternoon is ongoing across the Tennessee Valley region this afternoon, as breezy prefrontal WSW winds have allowed most areas to warm into the lower 80s as of 19z. A broad upper-trough continues to shift across the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys today, with its associated cold front now nosing into West Tennessee and North Mississippi. Otherwise a quiet and dry night with lows in the lower 60s. Expect highs in the upper 70s in the high elevations to around 80 degrees in the valleys for Saturday.
232 PM MDT Fri May 29 2020 20z surface analysis had ridge from central Canada into the southern plains. Warm front/lee trough located from central MT to western KS. Saturday, east/southeast low level flow continues as warm/front lee trough moves little. Thermal ridge building aloft will increase cap strength, but convergence along boundary and the Black Hills terrain could pop off an active storm or two late in the day/early evening.
1006 AM CDT Fri May 29 2020 A long wave upper level trof was moving through the forecast area early this morning. The upper trof will be moving over this area and be accompanied by additional cold air advection. Elsewhere, cold, dry, high pressure begins to build into the region. Some sprinkles/showers are possible over Iron County in the early afternoon as the cold air works over the warmer waters of Lake Superior to enhance the probability. High pressure settles overhead.
133 PM EDT Fri May 29 2020 Strong to severe storms will develop out ahead of an approaching cold front this afternoon with the daytime max heating. Expect the strongest storms to arrive later this evening with the cold front.
/Tonight through Friday/ High pressure will move into Iowa tonight keeping clear skies and cool temperatures in place. The high will shift east on Saturday and a weak disturbance aloft will graze southwest Iowa.
Strong 594 dm upper anticyclone was centered over SE Arizona at midday. High pressure aloft will build northeastward over Kansas through the short term, resulting in a simple forecast. As a result, minimum temperatures sunrise Saturday will be noticeably warmer, in the upper 50s and lower 60s. Afternoon temperatures in the lower 90s will be common, with mid 90s expected along and west of US 83. This is a result of a 591 dam anticyclone setting up shop right over Kansas.
1242 PM CDT Fri May 29 2020 High pressure will continue to move into Arkansas from the northwest. A cold front will drop SE through the state today. or what is left of the upper closed low that has given the area persistent rainfall over the past several days. Behind this trough. a new cold front will drop SE through the state through this afternoon and evening.
239 PM EDT Fri May 29 2020 Unsettled conditions expected into the weekend as an upper trough approaches from the west.
The warming trend will continue today with an upper ridge over the region. Winds increasing tomorrow associated with a cold front.
A few isolated showers will be possible this evening, then dry and cooler weather will arrive for the next few days.
The high pressure at the surface looks to slide eastward this evening.
Significant ridging extended from the Four Corners through the Intermountain West and off the East Coast, while a trough extended from western Hudson Bay to the Mississippi Valley. Ridging will begin to re-assert itself across the middle of the country late in the period. Opted to buffer the low measurable PoPs with a chance for a trace event.