Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
531 PM MDT Mon Jul 1 2019 A cold front that crossed the area yesterday has settled across NE and stretches westward into nern WY. A separate residual outflow zone across nern WY from morning convection is currently the focus for some additional convection, with more widespread development over the higher terrain of nwrn/n cntrl WY associated with a mid-to-upper level speed max. A deepening trough moving out of the Pac NW will lead to height falls across the Rockies/High Plains on Tuesday.
Outflow winds together with a cold frontal passage produced northwest winds to 36 mph at Baker around 630 PM PDT. Burns/OR also reported northwest winds to 28 mph around 630 PM PDT from the cold front alone. We expect the cold front and northwest winds 15 to 25 mph late tonight in the rest of our CWA, followed by lighter winds overnight, and then breezy northwest winds again Tuesday afternoon along with cooler temps. Surface winds will be variable less than 10 kts ahead of a cold front which has already begun to cross southeast Oregon this evening.
641 PM CDT Mon Jul 1 2019 Highlights: 1) On/off chances of showers and thunderstorms 2) Stagnant temperatures A ridge remains positioned over much of the CONUS except for a wave moving across the Northern Plains and a trough moving onshore over the Pacific Northwest.
824 PM MDT Mon Jul 1 2019 High pressure will build across the region through midweek.
731 PM MDT Mon Jul 1 2019 Did an update to cancel WW 474 and add in WW 476, and adjusted POPs to try to match the radar and a blend of the high- res models (mostly HRRR & RAP13), which looked something like the radar initially. Dew point temperatures were mainly in the upper 50s with some spot observing dew points in the low 60s. For the rest of the work week, and unsettled weather is forecast to affect the region, as a series of low pressure areas moves across the region.
/EC/ Prior discussion below: Going into Tuesday, the strong high pressure will continue to hold over the Southeast and again will limit any convection tomorrow afternoon. Temperatures in the short- term will continue to be near normal with highs in the low to mid 90s and lows in the low 70s.
/issued Issued by National Weather Service Amarillo TX/ Ridging continues across Arizona to the Central Plains with a continued warm pattern for West Texas. South winds at the surface and slightly lower than normal temperatures will persist through the next seven days with muggy conditions as dewpoints continue to remain on the warmer side.
A couple of weak surface trofs (possibly resulting from outflows/undular bores from the overnight MCS over the OH valley) are pushing south through north AL. Thus far, only a few small light showers have developed along the trof from northern MS thru central AL.
A weak mid to upper level trough prevails over the local region and is expected to continue to provide some lift to support the development of shower and thunderstorm activity through this evening as daytime heating peaks. Scattered showers and thunderstorms developed late this morning across our northwest counties, where the higher PWAT values are found. SE Texas looks to lie along the eastern side of the upper level trough with an upper level jet moving over the region Tuesday.
Convection moving off the higher terrain will interact with this boundary setting the stage for another active afternoon. Other than convection coming off the higher terrain, drier conditions and more seasonal temperatures will be expected across central, southwest, and west Wyoming.
This feature, combined with an unstable atmosphere and adequate low level moisture, should result in the development of showers and tstms over the higher terrain of ern NM and sern CO late this afternoon, then moving eastward across much of the fcst area this evening before diminishing after midnight tonight.
Overnight lows will be near normal in the low to mid 70s. The anomalous mid/upper ridge over the Gulf of Mexico will continue deep northwesterly flow aloft across the FL peninsula.
Scattered diurnal showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop Tuesday afternoon, with the greater coverage across roughly the southern half of the area where cooler midlevel temperatures will be located. Temperatures should be slightly cooler than those expected today due to cooler 850-hPa temperatures and an uptick in cloud cover. Highs are forecast to range from the upper 80s to low 90s with peak heat index values in the mid to upper 90s due to the high humidity levels. These slight chance PoPs are supported by the possibility that storms continue along outflow boundaries propagating southeastward from a cold front draped across Iowa.
Fairly stagnant weather pattern over the region through the period with upper troughing over the Pacific northwest and upper ridging over the southern plains keeping a generally swly upper flow over the area.
/issued 359 PM EDT Mon Jul 1 2019/ High pressure continues to establish itself over the region to kick off this work week.
It will be a clear and calm night as high pressure sits over the region.
Surface and upper air analysis depicts a deep ridge over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. This ridge is providing relatively dry NW/N flow over the Keys throughout the vertical profile. 76 inches, there is considerable dewpoint depression present throughout the lower and mid levels, as well as a stable layer between 2000 and 4500 feet. Have updated the forecasts to remove rain chances from the Lower and Middle Keys for the rest of the night, and also to make some minor adjustments to winds and sky cover.
639 PM CDT Mon Jul 1 2019 Upper level ridging has flattened some and settling back over the Southern Plains.
Temperatures will remain near normal values for the start of July through the end of the week with conditions trending warmer and slightly above normal going into the weekend.
As of 19Z, broad midlevel ridging continues to dominate the southeastern 2/3rds of the CONUS, although a broad and weak midlevel low was across northern Mexico. Afternoon highs are expected to reach the lower 90s. Thunderstorm chances look to increase by weeks-end into the weekend as a northern stream trough digs across the Northern Plains and shunts the previously mentioned surface front into the forecast area.
657 PM CDT Mon Jul 1 2019 Slightly above normal temperatures prevailing across the region this afternoon, all in response to a large upper-level ridge that remains parked across the central U. For tonight, expect mostly clear skies with lows generally falling into the lower to middle 70s early Tuesday morning. During this time, the upper ridge will begin retreating to the southwest, which will allow a more zonal flow to become better established across the central Plains and lower Missouri Vly.
Models were still in pretty good agreement with rain chances dropping off through late in the week as the upper high shifts south and east of the region. Thereafter, models showed the upper high rebuilding over the area with deeper moisture spreading in from the south this coming weekend.
Storms may congeal to a more linear mode and possibly regain some intensity with the onset of the low level jet between 03-06 UTC. The tornado threat appears low given the high LCLs. On Tuesday, a cold front will approach from the northwest, moving through most of the state by evening. Highs Tuesday in the lower 70s northwest to mid 80s south central.
Broad upper ridge that has been culprit for active convective pattern will flatten a bit more today and as subtle short wave energy moves through again today, will be watching southward progress of boundary. As broad ridge reestablishes on Wednesday, initial response is shown as low level moisture transport increases off to our west.
Temperatures will reach to near 90 degrees again across the region, and combined with dewpoints in the lower 70s, make it feel as if it were more like 95.
Current surface analysis shows high pressure to the south and also to the east of the Commonwealth. Aloft, a ridge continues to dominate the southeastern CONUS. Not expecting much of a ridge/valley temperature difference even with light winds overnight tonight due to increased cloud cover. However, the valleys are still likely to be slightly cooler than the ridgetops.
110 AM CDT Tue Jul 2 2019 At 1 AM, the shower and thunderstorm activity that popped up yesterday evening along a stationary boundary draped from the High Plains of Colorado to Wisconsin was on the decline. Continued weakening of the upper level ridge over the southern tier of the U.
A disturbance moving around the periphery of the low will allow convection to persist into the day today, with showers/storms spreading north/ northeastward as the low opens up and drifts northeastward. Low and mid-level moisture spreading into the region today will keep more clouds over the state, with temperatures cooler than the last few days.
Early this morning an upper level low was located over the CWA, near the I-35 corridor. The feature will open into the elongated trough axis stretching from North Texas to the Rio Grande through the short term. Upper level energy moving southeast out of Northwest Texas will help to sharpen the upper level trough across the western CWA Wednesday afternoon, and allow for a farther west expansion of scattered showers and storms on Wednesday.
Surface cold front now approaching northwest North Dakota will slide southeast today and eventually will become the low level convergence focusing mechanism for surface based convection. NAM BUFKIT soundings reflect mostly an uncapped environment between 21z-00z from Dickinson to Bismarck and into Jamestown - which is along the cold front, while the GFS is capped behind the front through 00z.
Strong upper ridging will weaken late in the week.
A cold front will approach the area today, becoming situated from southern Wyoming to southeastern North Dakota by this evening. High temperatures today will be in the mid to upper 80s, with lows tonight in the lower to mid 60s. A persistent west coast trough will result in a weak southwesterly flow aloft over the Northern Pains.
A deep upper-level low pressure system is spinning off the coast of the Pacific Northwest and resulting in a deep area of troughing stretching down the coast of California. This low pressure system is expected to push inland through the week, though impacts for our area remain the same: a weak, persistent southwesterly flow that results in clear, dry conditions.
For tomorrow, a very weak upper level low will move south of the FA. Slight cooling at 500-hPa in association with the low may be enough to spark off widely scattered small storms across SW Kansas. The highest chance of a thunderstorm impacting a terminal is Tuesday evening.
The mid to upper ridge position will likely suppress anything more than isolated deep convection. Have opted for low chance PoP in southern TN and far northeast AL as a wave of vorticity opens up from the upper low in the ARKLATX area shears out across KY and northern TN which could trigger a bit more coverage in these areas during the afternoon hours. The upper ridge in the northern Gulf of Mexico will shift west into the northwest Gulf and TX through this weekend. This may steer MCS/MCV activity that develops in the lower MO valley into the central TN valley late this week and especially into the weekend. With a weak area of high pressure remaining in place over much of the region, VFR conds are expected thru the period.
A warm frontal boundary currently shifting into eastern Ohio zones but warm air in the lower levels looks likely to prevent shower/storm development associated with the boundary.
Temperatures are in the low to mid 70s, with a few spots along the river still sitting at a balmy 77 degrees. Temperatures will remain near normal with highs in the low 90s with mid to upper 70 dewpoints.
Slightly cooler temps persist behind the front in the NW tier.
An upper level low currently centered near San Antonio will drift slowly to the northwest into our area today. The main effect will be slightly cooler temperatures, but overall, we can expect similar conditions for our region today. A few showers and thunderstorms developing on the east side of this low may affect areas southeast of a Brownwood to Sonora line during the evening hours, but generally dry weather is expected for most of the forecast area.
314 AM CDT Tue Jul 2 2019 A few showers and storms continue across the higher terrain this morning. Our area will remain within a weakness between upper ridging to our west over Baja California and to our east over FL. The best chance for storms this afternoon will reside over the higher terrain.
A warm frontal boundary currently over central Ohio evident in surface obs will move into eastern Ohio zones approximately around daybreak but based off latest rapid update guidance, but warm air in the lower levels looks likely to prevent shower/storm development associated with the boundary.
The best chance for wetting rain will generally be across the higher terrain and for locales south and east of Tucson, with gusty outflow winds possible with the stronger convection. Models were still in pretty good agreement with rain chances dropping off through late in the week as the upper high shifts south and east of the region. Thereafter, models showed the upper high rebuilding over the area with deeper moisture spreading in from the south this coming weekend.
225 AM CDT Tue Jul 2 2019 Warm and sticky out there again this morning with dew points hanging in the low 70s. Today should be relatively similar to what we have seen the last couple of days as an upper level ridge drives temperatures into the low to middle 90s.
A weak upper low/vort over northern AR, west central MO, and another over ne OK/se OK (shifting north) may tend to focus convection today primarily during the afternoon/evening with diurnal heating.
300 AM CDT Tue Jul 2 2019 Persistent ridging pattern typical for this time of year will continue to hold off the northern jet stream from making much progress toward our latitude. Disturbances out of the Pacific Northwest will continue to be steered from the Four Corners region north-northeastward around the apex of the ridging across the Southern Plains. H50 flow will be meagher and unorganized leading to a weak signal for POPS through the forecast period, with best chances generally along the TX/NM state line as storms attempt to mover off the higher terrain under height falls aloft and increased surface moisture advecting northwestward from the Gulf of Mexico.
Mid and upper level ridging has combined with lower level subsidence to put an end to the convection overnight.
Today we will continue the hot start to July, high pressure in the Gulf of Mexico continues to build and dominate the weather pattern for South Florida.
124 AM CDT Tue Jul 2 2019 Upper level ridging has flattened some and settling back over the Southern Plains.
Aside from a few hit-or-miss storms, it will be another hot/humid day with afternoon highs in the lower 90s. Lows tonight will drop into the lower 70s. Very warm and humid conditions will continue through the end of the week as the Midwest/Ohio River Valley remain under the influence of an upper ridge.
1052 PM MDT Mon Jul 1 2019 A cold front that crossed the area yesterday has settled across NE and stretches westward into nern WY. A separate residual outflow zone across nern WY from morning convection is currently the focus for some additional convection, with more widespread development over the higher terrain of nwrn/n cntrl WY associated with a mid-to-upper level speed max. A deepening trough moving out of the Pac NW will lead to height falls across the Rockies/High Plains on Tuesday.
As a result, temperatures will be slightly cooler with highs in the upper 80s to around 90.
314 AM CDT Tue Jul 2 2019 A ridge over the area has become disorganized overhead with transient and rather chaotic movement progged today.
Tuesday and Wednesday will be cooler with the chance for showers and thunderstorms.
Low pressure over Wisconsin will move over Lower Michigan today and a trailing cold front will sink south across the cwa.
Models have changed the track of the weak closed low/vorticity maximum on Tuesday, with 00z NAM now tracking this feature SE to near Boise City at midday, and into the Texas panhandle by evening. Typical early July afternoon heat, in the lower 90s. The highest chance of a thunderstorm impacting a terminal is Tuesday evening.
310 AM CDT Tue Jul 2 2019 All quiet across the Tennessee Valley region as high pressure remains the dominant weather feature in the area.
/issued 932 PM CDT Mon Jul 1 2019/ Convection has dissipated for the evening but will need to watch for redevelopment along and northwest of the I-30 Corridor which will include the northern third of NE TX, SE OK and SW AR where our inverted trough axis currently resides.
Forward progression has been slow, around 5 to 10 mph, as these features try to move east over the ridge across our western counties.
240 AM MDT Tue Jul 2 2019 A cold front is currently moving south across Northeast Montana early this morning. High pressure will build into Saskatchewan today which will bring dry and cooler weather for most of today. The cold front will become stationary near the MT/WY border today and will become the focus point for showers and thunderstorms to develop this afternoon and evening.
408 AM EDT Tue Jul 2 2019 A weak trough of low pressure will move southeast later this afternoon.
1139 PM CDT Mon Jul 1 2019 Slightly above normal temperatures prevailing across the region this afternoon, all in response to a large upper-level ridge that remains parked across the central U. For tonight, expect mostly clear skies with lows generally falling into the lower to middle 70s early Tuesday morning. During this time, the upper ridge will begin retreating to the southwest, which will allow a more zonal flow to become better established across the central Plains and lower Missouri Vly.
235 AM EDT Tue Jul 2 2019 Warm front pushes northward this morning. A warm front will continue to push northward this morning.
300 AM CDT Tue Jul 2 2019 Early morning water vapor imagery revealed an upper low crawling north into the Hill Country within a broad meridional trough axis. Although weak, favorably cyclonic winds aloft within the lingering trough axis should further aid in storm development as far west as the Rio Grande Plains. No significant changes aloft are evident on Wednesday as the upper trough remains poised across our western zones.
/issued 314 AM CDT Tue Jul 2 2019/ A few showers and storms continue across the higher terrain this morning. Our area will remain within a weakness between upper ridging to our west over Baja California and to our east over FL. The best chance for storms this afternoon will reside over the higher terrain.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 95 74 92 73 / 20 20 30 20 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 93 72 89 71 / 20 20 40 30 Oak Ridge, TN 93 72 90 72 / 30 20 40 30 Tri Cities Airport, TN 89 67 88 67 / 40 20 40 30.
317 AM MDT Tue Jul 2 2019 Upper low continues to sit across the Pacific Northwest, with nearly zonal flow persists across the northern Great Plains. This time, the best instability will be across the southern two-thirds of the CWA, where the highest likelihood of severe weather will be.
350 AM PDT Tue Jul 2 2019 A trough of low pressure near the West Coast will spread cooling inland through Wednesday.
/issued 300 AM CDT Tue Jul 2 2019/ Persistent ridging pattern typical for this time of year will continue to hold off the northern jet stream from making much progress toward our latitude. Disturbances out of the Pacific Northwest will continue to be steered from the Four Corners region north-northeastward around the apex of the ridging across the Southern Plains. H50 flow will be meagher and unorganized leading to a weak signal for POPS through the forecast period, with best chances generally along the TX/NM state line as storms attempt to mover off the higher terrain under height falls aloft and increased surface moisture advecting northwestward from the Gulf of Mexico.
Wednesday a low pressure system will push into northwest Montana in the afternoon increasing shower coverage. Modest precipitation accumulations of a half inch is possible, especially north of I-90, in the high terrain, and along the Continental Divide.
A large upper level ridge will then build over the area and last all week long. Dewpoints remain mainly in the mid to upper 60s in most areas, with dewpoints up into the lower 70s in the Lower Susq. Combined with the elevated dewpoints, this will produce heat indices in the lower to mid 90s for the central mountains and Susq Valley through the July 4th holiday. By the weekend, a weak cold front drops southward across the region. Tstms likely on Sat, then changes drop each day and become more confined to the south as drier and slightly cooler air moves.
608 AM CDT Tue Jul 2 2019 Cold front now entering the far northwest will track southeast today, into south central ND this afternoon and far southern ND this evening. Surface cold front now approaching northwest North Dakota will slide southeast today and eventually will become the low level convergence focusing mechanism for surface based convection. NAM BUFKIT soundings reflect mostly an uncapped environment between 21z-00z from Dickinson to Bismarck and into Jamestown - which is along the cold front, while the GFS is capped behind the front through 00z.
512 AM MDT Tue Jul 2 2019 Upper low continues to sit across the Pacific Northwest, with nearly zonal flow persists across the northern Great Plains. This time, the best instability will be across the southern two-thirds of the CWA, where the highest likelihood of severe weather will be.
Favorable boating conds through late week as the wrn flank of the Bermuda Ridge axis remains gradually rebuilds over the W Atlc. Sfc/low lvl pgrad will support a light to gentle S/SE breeze thru Thu, strengthening to a gentle to moderate breeze Fri and Sat as the ridge interacts with a frontal trof off the Mid Atlc to tighten the sfc pgrad.
Also the circulation of the clouds over Texas shows a distinct signature of an upper level low.
/Today through Wednesday/ Upper-level trough across Texas to provide sufficient instability to support scattered showers and thunderstorms today across much of ArkLaTex. With dewpoint values in the low to mid 70s, heat index values will climb into the low to mid 90s areawide this afternoon. Overnight low temperatures forecast to fall into the lower 70s. Upper-trough to eject northeast on Wednesday after being intercepted by a more progressive trough to the north. Forcing ahead of departing trough to bring numerous showers and thunderstorms across the region with the greatest coverage along and south of Interstate 20.
317 AM MDT Tue Jul 2 2019 Cooler temperatures are spreading through North-central Montana as a cold front continues to move from north to south.
Best chance will be on the periphery of the ridge in the northern forecast area, but can't be ruled out further south.
A cold front is currently working it way south across north- central Montana.
Deep Northwest Flow continues to build the heat and humidity across NE FL/SE GA as High pressure ridge remains anchored over the Eastern GOMEX. Prior to peak of convection late this afternoon expecting the Hot NW steering flow to push Max Temps into the middle/upper 90s at most locations with while the weak sea breeze at the coast will limit to lower 90s there, this combined with dew point temps in the lower to middle 70s will push the Heat Index/"Feels-Like" readings to around 105 degrees for most locations by early-mid afternoon.
/Issued 300 AM CDT Tue Jul 2 2019/ Early morning water vapor imagery revealed an upper low crawling north into the Hill Country within a broad meridional trough axis. Although weak, favorably cyclonic winds aloft within the lingering trough axis should further aid in storm development as far west as the Rio Grande Plains. No significant changes aloft are evident on Wednesday as the upper trough remains poised across our western zones.