Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
525 PM MDT Sat May 16 2020 Rain showers continue to decrease in coverage and intensity over parts of northeastern Wyoming and northwestern South Dakota this afternoon and will gradually end over much of the the rest of the area early this evening as the slow moving upper low continues to move off to the east.
/issued 249 PM CDT Sat May 16 2020/ (Tonight and Sunday) Upper low over Northcentral Texas was moving slowly northeast this afternoon. Wraparound clouds over the Big Country were keeping temperatures on the cooler side in the 60s, with 70s to lower 80s farther south. Skies will gradually clear over the Big Country overnight as the upper low moves east.
It was a warm and partly sunny day with temps in the low to mid 80s. Shower and thunderstorm chances will increase Sunday as a weakening low pressure system moves in from the Lower Ms Valley and a stronger low pressure swings down to the Ohio Valley with a cold front.
Upper and surface ridging remains across the southern Appalachians keeping dry conditions. Upper and surface ridging will begin to weaken Sunday allowing moisture to return across the Plateau and southeast Tennessee. Southerly flow will return Sunday as surface ridging begins to move east. A cold front will be moving into the Mississippi valley on Sunday. Will keep the low PoPs confined to the Plateau and Southern Valley. The extended is expected to be unsettled with an anomalous upper low across the region, and with these closed lows, forecast confidence is generally lower.
/issued 239 PM CDT Sat May 16 2020/ The forecast area is under northwesterly upper flow between an upper low over East Texas and an upper ridge over the desert southwest. The upper ridge will move eastward across New Mexico tomorrow. Increasing heights and thicknesses support modestly warmer temperatures than those of today and in line with MOS and model/forecast initialization.
For winds, generally have SW to W around 10 knots tonight becoming W to NW during the day tomorrow as the low moves out of the state. Upper trof stretching north-south across east Texas will make slow eastward progress into Arkansas and Lousiana. At the surface, a trof axis/low pressure area situated just north and east of the Brazos Valley should continue moving to the northeast tonight. Further south, on the backside of the low, winds will be shifting to the nw.
For tonight, an upper low will lift north into western AR with an upper level shear axis becoming better defined over the MO Ozarks. Temperatures will be cool to start the period with an upper level low cutting off to our east. A highly amplified blocking upper level pattern over the CONUS will "slow the weather down a bit" with a moderating temperatures as a slow moving upper level ridge builds into our area later in the week. We have some modest rain chances late in the week as the blocking pattern breaks down, but right now nothing highly impactful is expected for this period.
This low will deepen some as it lifts northeast tonight, with precipitation maximizing across our area near the inverted trough that will extend northward from it. The large scale pattern looks to amplify in the wake of this weekend's system, with ridging developing across the central and eastern US as a deep upper trough sets up over the west. Our current system looks to cutoff beneath the upper ridge and loiter across the Ohio and Tennessee valleys for much of the week.
/issued 355 PM CDT Sat May 16 2020/ Current satellite imagery shows a low pressure system over southeast Texas pushing towards the ArkLaMiss area. The second, stronger low pressure will swing down to the Ohio Valley pushing a cold front across the region.
737 PM EDT Sat May 16 2020 Ridging aloft and a Bermuda High at the surface will support summerlike conditions through this weekend. Unsettled and cooler conditions will set up early in the week as a large low pressure system settles over the region and lingers through much of the upcoming week. Expect essentially more of the same through the daylight hours Sunday, as upper ridging remains the dominant synoptic feature across the region.
Made minor changes to the hourly temperatures to align with current obs, and we should still see low temperatures in the low to mid 60s tomorrow morning. Tomorrow night still looks like a better chance of widespread precip as a cold front begins to slowly move through the area.
/issued 346 PM CDT Sat May 16 2020/ A recent upper level analysis shows a ridge east of the Mississippi River, a closed low near South Dakota, and an open trough in east Texas. Convection spiraling around the low in east Texas, which now has a surface inflection, is tracking into and across western portions of the CWA. Models show the 2 upper lows blending together as they track east to the Mississippi Valley on Sunday.
Anticipate better chances for convective evolution over parts of NE/IA, and likewise we may see a better probability for convection within our CWA along the trailing surface cold front this evening southward from this aforementioned activity.
632 PM CDT Sat May 16 2020 (This through Tonight) Satellite and radar observations show closed low just south of DFW moving northeast toward the Arklatex region. Weak convection should mostly be confined to higher terrain of northeast New Mexico and could drift onto the High Plains, but is unlikely to sustain into western Oklahoma.
646 PM CDT Sat May 16 2020 The upper low will move out of Texas and through Arkansas tonight and Sunday.
841 PM MDT Sat May 16 2020 Upper low over southeastern SD has moved east of forecast area with just a few showers lingering over the Winner area and wrap- around clouds over much of western SD dissipating.
As for the Keys, we are currently in a relatively dry swath, also spiraling into the low.
/00Z TAFS/ Breezy north winds on the west side of the departing upper trough is mixing out much of the moisture and leaving more doubt among model solutions of there being any low cigs late tonight. Clouds linger through the morning across most of the region, then decrease in the afternoon leaving partly cloudy to mostly sunny skies with highs in the mid 80s to the lower 90s.
The first wave of potentially heavy rain will move in from the west late tonight in association with a warm front, lifting into Michigan by late morning. The heavy rain threat continues Sunday night into Monday morning as a slow moving cold front moves in from the west, pulling up a direct fetch of moisture out of the Gulf. An Omega block synoptic pattern sets up on Monday with high pressure over the Atlantic keeping the low from progressing eastward, and it will stall over the Appalachians.
Surface convergence is expected to be weak as well even as the surface cold front gets more of a push eastward tonight across eastern Kansas. Otherwise, a drier northerly component mean flow will develop and prevail across the area through Monday, as an upper low deepens over the middle Mississippi Valley into Illinois/Indiana. Sufficient low level moisture across eastern Kansas on Sunday within the low level thermal trof may support a diurnal Cu/Stratocu field, though still a partly to mostly sunny day.
The upper level low will drop sse along the Mississippi River during the day Monday, therefore northwest winds and ample low level clouds will linger most if not all day. Enough lift and moisture in the low levels, combined with a favorable northwest wind intersecting the plateau will likely contribute to drizzle or light rain showers at times during the day, most likely across central Missouri and the eastern Ozarks. Highs will be kept down in the lower 60s at most locations. A blocking pattern looks likely across the CONUS for the remainder of the week with a large cut off low remaining across the Tennessee and Ohio valleys and another low across the west.
311 AM CDT Sun May 17 2020 Areas of light rain continue across portions of southeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas on backside of low pressure system in deformation zone. Rain will continue to decrease in coverage through mid morning as drier air filters into the region behind cold front. Dry/mild conditions are expected through the early part of the work week as ridging at the surface and aloft persist with upper blocking pattern developing.
Arthur will continue to lift out to the NE away from the state today and tonight, as high pressure starts to build into south FL from the Atlantic and a low pressure area shifts east of the MS River along the northern Gulf Coast states.
DRIER CONDITIONS EARLY THIS WEEK BEFORE EARLY SUMMER WEATHER Tropical Storm Arthur is forecast by the NHC to continue to move northeast towards the outer banks of North Carolina, as an mid to upper level low over Texas moves east northeast towards the Tennessee Valley. The mid to upper level low will become stationary over the Tennessee Valley, as a low level trough associated with the low moves eastward from the Gulf of Mexico into South Florida. This will keep the south to southwest wind flow over South Florida allowing for tropical moisture to work into the region ahead of the low level trough.
1132 PM MDT Sat May 16 2020 Upper low over southeastern SD has moved east of forecast area with just a few showers lingering over the Winner area and wrap- around clouds over much of western SD dissipating.
A quiet period will continue today and tonight as ridging aloft moves across the Colorado Rockies into the Western High Plains. With a weakening northwest flow aloft and a drier air mass settled across the high plains of western Kansas, precip chances will remain absent through the period. For tonight, decreased cloud cover and light winds will allow temperatures to drop into the 40s(F) in central Kansas to the lower/mid 50s(F) closer to the Oklahoma border in southwest Kansas.
1210 AM EDT Sun May 17 2020 A cold front will cross the region Sunday into Monday.
/issued 239 PM CDT Sat May 16 2020/ The forecast area is under northwesterly upper flow between an upper low over East Texas and an upper ridge over the desert southwest. The upper ridge will move eastward across New Mexico tomorrow. Increasing heights and thicknesses support modestly warmer temperatures than those of today and in line with MOS and model/forecast initialization. By Monday morning, upper level ridging will be well established across the Southern Plains.
A building ridge of high pressure will provide well above normal daytime temperatures today and Monday.
330 AM EDT Sun May 17 2020 Synopsis/Discussion/Marine Low pressure will bring heavy rain to Lower Michigan today and tonight.
As of 3 AM CDT, temperatures across the Mid-South are in the lower 70s at most locations. Shower and thunderstorm chances will gradually diminish tonight into Monday morning as cool high pressure builds into the region.
High pressure aloft over Utah this evening will shift east of the state ahead of a strong upper level trough approaching the West Coast on Sunday. A strong southwest flow aloft will prevail ahead of the upper level trough through Monday.
The upper low will move out of Texas and through Arkansas tonight and Sunday. Precip will persist across much of the forecast area overnight into Sunday before a cold front makes its way across the state Sunday afternoon/evening. In the wake of the front, cooler and drier air will be in place.
West of Interstate 29 some clearing may lead towards the potential for fog as a ridge of high pressure builds into the area.
258 AM CDT Sun May 17 2020 Two areas of interest this morning on water vapor imagery as Kansas is sandwiched between two upper level troughs, one rotating into eastern Nebraska with the second lifting towards southern Arkansas. As the northern stream cyclone matures, strong northerly winds increase from 10 to 20 mph through early evening with gusts up to 30 mph possible. For tonight, 850 moisture increases downstream of the departing upper low, resulting in mostly cloudy skies returning to far eastern Kansas. Therefore boosted overnight lows a few degrees into the lower 50s while readings in the 40s likely where lesser cloud cover is present.
For winds, have W winds becoming WNW to NW during the day tomorrow as low pressure gradually moves out of the area. Upper trof stretching north-south across east Texas will make slow eastward progress into Arkansas and Lousiana. At the surface, a trof axis/low pressure area situated just north and east of the Brazos Valley should continue moving to the northeast tonight. Further south, on the backside of the low, winds will be shifting to the nw.
335 AM CDT Sun May 17 2020 Wet weather conditions will slowly give way to drier conditions today as an upper level low continues to pull southeast and away from our area. But, a gradual clearing trend will take place from west to east as a ridge of high pressure begins to build across the western Dakotas. This ridge will be in control through the remainder of the period marking the beginning of a drier and warmer stretch for this forecast area.
325 AM CDT Sun May 17 2020 A pleasant day is ahead with temperatures warming into the middle 80s across the forecast area as a mid-level ridge builds in over the southwestern and south-central Great Plains. Winds will remain light and variable throughout the day as the 1014 mb surface anticyclone settles over the Texas Big Country. Opted to utilize MOS guidance to nudge the high temperatures up a couple of degrees today due to increasing heights as the ridge axis progresses eastward. Sincavage Upper level ridge will continue to be in place Monday morning with low pressure centers across the upper midwest and the northern California coast.
413 AM EDT Sun May 17 2020 A weak warm front will lift across PA today. A closed upper low will develop over the Midwest and move slowly to the Tennessee Valley by the middle of the week. Models are very well aligned with a (much) farther west advance and slower approach of the expected cut-off low moving down from the upper plains/midwest.
345 AM EDT Sun May 17 2020 A slow moving low pressure system will bring periods of rain Sunday afternoon through Monday evening.
239 AM CDT Sun May 17 2020 Some showers are being tracked over West Tennessee tonight associated with an area of positive vorticity advection ahead of an upper low which is currently centered over eastern Oklahoma/ northeast Texas. Meanwhile further north, another upper low is centered over northeast Nebraska. Both of these upper lows will be in control of our weather for the next 5 days. Shower activity will continue overnight as the southern upper low slides east. Shower and storms will once again be possible on Monday as a cold front moves across the area.
Overall, we expect a fairly warm and humid night across the TN Valley, as deep- layer SSW flow will continue to strengthen downstream from a weak upper low tracking across the Arklatex region. Under more clouds than sun, scattered showers and thunderstorms are in the forecast on Sunday, as the two aformentioned areas of low pressure merge over the mid Mississippi Valley region during Sun afternoon/evening. A cold front trailing south of the low will approach the area Sun night, with somewhat higher rain chances A deeper consolidated area of low pressure by Monday morning should be situated over northern Indiana, with a cold front draped south of it moving across the region.
The upper low that gave us some good rain early yesterday morning continues east and out of the area. Upper ridging builds in from the west leaving us with northwest flow aloft. Even warmer highs on Monday with most of the area seeing mid to upper 90s.
An usually deep trough over the nations midsection will dig equatorward into the far south central Gulf of Mexico by Monday, resulting an increase in moisture, low level confluence and large scale lift.
/issued 954 PM CDT Sat May 16 2020/ Showers ahead of a low pressure system located over the ARKLATEX is beginning to spread into the Mid-South. /issued 355 PM CDT Sat May 16 2020/ Current satellite imagery shows a low pressure system over southeast Texas pushing towards the ArkLaMiss area. The second, stronger low pressure will swing down to the Ohio Valley pushing a cold front across the region. As the cold front passes cooler and drier air will be in place.
Heavier rain is expected to arrive this afternoon as a warm front moves north. The heavy rain threat will continue into Monday given the strength of the blocking ridge. The upper low will be slow to move out with lingering showers possible through much of the week.
An area of low pressure is near Texarkana this morning. The associated cold front stretches south and southwest from the low to near Houston. Behind the boundary high pressure is located from Central Texas to Canada.
1051 PM CDT Sat May 16 2020 (This through Tonight) Satellite and radar observations show closed low just south of DFW moving northeast toward the Arklatex region. Weak convection should mostly be confined to higher terrain of northeast New Mexico and could drift onto the High Plains, but is unlikely to sustain into western Oklahoma.
This will lead to mid level ridging pushing into the Rockies and much of the plains later today and remain over the area through Tue. Medium range models also suggest, that the blocky pattern will be short-lived and KS will become more influenced by the western trof and a return to SW flow by Thu and the start of the Memorial Day weekend.
The upper ridge pushes east today as a low pressure center approaches from the northwest and southwest, along with tropical storm Arthur advancing toward the Carolinas. The exiting ridge will open the door for moisture transport into our area this afternoon and into tonight. Downsloping winds increase tonight as the cold front draws closer and will help keep northeast TN and southwest VA mostly dry until the early morning hours on Monday. Highs today will be similar to yesterday with temps in the low to mid 80s, which is 5 to 10 degrees above normal. Increasing clouds and southerly flow will allow for very mild temps overnight with temps ranging from the low to mid 60s, which is around 10 degrees above normal.
149 AM MDT Sun May 17 2020 Water vapor shows upper low over far southeast SD with large ridge over the Rockies, and upper trof along the west coast. At the surface, ridge extends over western SD. Otherwise, mostly sunny skies and much warmer temps expected with upper ridge shifting into the northern plains.
05Z (Midnight CDT) Surface analysis reveals the surface cold front has reached northwestern Missouri.
Latest water vapor imagery shows a closed low moving east across northeast Nebraska this morning. Gusty northwest winds behind the system are forecast to continue through much of the day as high pressure building in behind the low strengthens the surface pressure gradient. Amplified upper level ridging builds overhead early this week with a closed off low over the eastern U. Meanwhile,a large trough will dig across the western U. Toward the end of the week, the western trough will begin to pivot into the northern Plains providing warmer temperatures and chances for thunderstorms. KOMA seems that it would have the highest chance of -SHRA Sunday afternoon.
317 AM CDT Sun May 17 2020 Early morning water vapor satellite imagery shows an upper low spinning across southwest Minnesota. Clouds continue to wrap around the low into southeast North Dakota, while any precipitation as shown on the regional radar mosaic has generally been well south and east of the forecast area early this morning. The quiet weather is expected to continue tonight, though some of the high resolution model solutions are hinting at the chance of a few showers that would come out of eastern Montana into western parts of the state. A large upper low across the western United States will try to makes it way east with southwesterly flow taking hold across parts of the region.
Temperatures and dew points in the lower and middle 70s. Upper low continues near the KY-TN border for much of the week.
226 AM EDT Sun May 17 2020 A weak warm front will lift across PA today. A closed upper low will develop over the Midwest and move slowly to the Tennessee Valley by the middle of the week. Fair weather clouds drifting across the CWA right now, but southeasterly sfc wind veers quickly through the lower 5kft aloft and will bring in moisture and cloud cover this morning. Models are very well aligned with a (much) farther west advance and slower approach of the expected cut-off low moving down from the upper plains/midwest.
231 AM EDT Sun May 17 2020 A weak cold front will push south across the area early this morning. High pressure will build to our north tonight through Monday as low pressure stalls in the Mid-Atlantic region.
Further n, another closed low present across nrn Iowa will nudge the low over our region ewd today. Shwrs continue mainly along the cool side of the low this morning, with a weak band on the warm side inching its way ewd. Upper low center to move e of our region by this evening, with precip coming to an end by midnight.
Upper and surface ridging remains across the southern Appalachians keeping dry conditions. High pressure begins to weaken as a cold front approaches from the west. Chattanooga Airport, TN 85 66 80 58 70 / 30 60 60 20 30 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 86 66 79 58 69 / 10 50 70 50 50 Oak Ridge, TN 86 65 78 57 69 / 10 60 70 40 50 Tri Cities Airport, TN 87 62 77 56 68 / 10 30 90 80 70.
Sunny skies and rising heights aloft will then help set the stage for warmer conditions today, with temps well into the 70s and 80s expected over the lower elevations. Ridging aloft anticipated today, with forecast soundings across southern Colorado showing some decent CIN in place later this afternoon. Initially, as transitory upper ridging moves across the CWA Monday, project dry conditions in combination with well above later May seasonal temperatures.
Increasing subsidence expected over the region today as an upper trough moves EWD across the NWRN Gulf of Mexico.
This will lead to mid level ridging pushing into the Rockies and much of the plains later today and remain over the area through Tue. Medium range models also suggest, that the blocky pattern will be short-lived and KS will become more influenced by the western trof and a return to SW flow by Thu and the start of the Memorial Day weekend. Ketcham * SCT/BKN MVFR-level clouds into this afternoon * Gusty winds late this morning into this afternoon A cold front continues to push southeast across southern and eastern Kansas at this time. Additionally, behind the front an area of low CIGs (MVFR) is pivoting south through eastern Kansas on the backside of low pressure over Iowa.
/issued 325 AM CDT Sun May 17 2020/ A pleasant day is ahead with temperatures warming into the middle 80s across the forecast area as a mid-level ridge builds in over the southwestern and south-central Great Plains. Winds will remain light and variable throughout the day as the 1014 mb surface anticyclone settles over the Texas Big Country. Opted to utilize MOS guidance to nudge the high temperatures up a couple of degrees today due to increasing heights as the ridge axis progresses eastward. Sincavage Upper level ridge will continue to be in place Monday morning with low pressure centers across the upper midwest and the northern California coast.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will be possible across the northern and eastern portions of the area through Noon as the upper level low slowly gets kicked out to the east. This should be the final bit of precipitation that we will be getting from the upper level low that has been meandering near the area over the past few days. High pressure building in the wake of the exiting disturbance will help clear out skies this evening. High temperatures this afternoon will climb into the low to mid 80s today, but rising heights and clear skies will allow for high temperatures to climb to near 90 degrees on Monday.
515 AM EDT Sun May 17 2020 A weak warm front will lift across PA today. A closed upper low will develop over the Midwest and move slowly to the Tennessee Valley by the middle of the week. Models are very well aligned with a (much) farther west advance and slower approach of the expected cut-off low moving down from the upper plains/midwest.