Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
353 AM MST MON NOV 30 2015 A DUAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO DUMBBELL OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TODAY. THE SOUTHERN PORTION WILL MOVE INTO THE HIGH PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING. WITH THE NORTHERN TRAILING LOW PRESSURE ENERGY LINGERING OVER WY. A DRIER NORTH FLOW DEVELOPS OVER OUR REGION ON TUE AS THE LOW MOVES INTO WISCONSIN AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND STRETCHES NORTH-NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN.
WE WILL BE ON THE FAR NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RELATIVELY DEEPER MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN TODAY. WITH LIGHTER WINDS, TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER INTO THE LOW 80S. A LITTLE BIT OF DRYING ON TUESDAY MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TRANSITS THE STATE AND PUSHES THE UPPER LEVEL LOW FURTHER SOUTH.
THE COLD UPPER LOW ALONG THE SPINE OF THE ROCKIES WILL CONTINUE EAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES LATER TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD OVER THE REGION MID WEEK.
BUT AS A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW. RAIN AND WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT STEADY THIS MORNING BUT THEN SHOULD WARM THROUGHOUT THIS AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY BEFORE THE COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST PUSHES THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING.
ANOTHER ROUND OF RAINSHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH.
A WEAKENING WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE EXTENDS ALONG THE GULF COAST REGION. WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED IN THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. WITH OUR REGION UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A DEEP TROPOSPHERIC ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC AND GULF WATERS.
HAVE THEREFORE ISSUED A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY, AS ANY SLEET IN THESE AREAS WILL LIKELY CHANGE TO FREEZING RAIN BEFORE FINALLY BECOMING ALL RAIN, AND UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE IS POSSIBLE ON AREA ROADWAYS. ASIDE FROM WINTRY CONDITIONS THIS MORNING, THE FRONT WILL PRODUCE ONLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION AND LITTLE ELSE AS IT PUSHES HEADFIRST INTO THE BLOCKING RIDGE OVERHEAD.
321 AM PST MON NOV 30 2015 LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST OUT OF CENTRAL CALIFORNIA REGION OVERNIGHT.
Conditions will improve around mid morning as a cold front shunts moisture to the east. /issued 328 AM CST MON NOV 30 2015/ A strong upper low centered over WY this morning will wobble east across the Central Plains today.
959 AM EST MON NOV 30 2015 RAIN CHANCES WILL SLOWLY INCREASE TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THE REGION.
937 AM CST MON NOV 30 2015 STATUS QUO FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY WITH LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN TEMPERATURE BEHIND COLD FRONT PUSHING OFF THE UPPER TX COAST THIS MORNING.
1031 AM EST MON NOV 30 2015 A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT BEFORE A COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD THIS EVENING AS THE ISENTROPIC LIFT CONTINUES TO INCREASE AND DEEPER MOISTURE OVERSPREADS THE REGION AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. PCPN WILL THEN CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO OUR FA AND EAST OF OUR AREA BY MID AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN TO 32 F ACROSS BUCHANAN/DELAWARE/AND DUBUQUE COUNTIES BUT ROAD SFC TEMPERATURES ARE A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THEREBY PRECLUDING MUCH OF A THREAT FOR ICING. ALL PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS TODAY WILL FALL AS PLAIN RAIN AS TEMPS REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING. COLD FRONT FORECAST TO PUSH THROUGH E IOWA/W ILLINOIS BETWEEN 2-4 AM CST. LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 30S WEST AND CENTRAL. AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL BY MID-WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ALOFT AND OFFSHORE FLOW CONTINUES. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING COOLING AND A CHANCE OF RAIN LATE IN THE WEEK. WARM AND DRY WEATHER WILL LIKELY RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO PLACE AND OFFSHORE FLOW REDEVELOPS. QUIET IN THE SHORT TERM AS RIDGING WILL BUILD THROUGH THE PERIOD. SKIES WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY AT TIMES AS SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS MOVE THROUGH THE RIDGE.
OTHERWISE LOW CLOUDS AND REDUCED VISIBILITY WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE REMAIN SATURATED.
649 AM EST MON NOV 30 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NEW ENGLAND STATES WILL DRIFT SOUTHEASTWARD OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THIS AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY TUESDAY NIGHT.
THE COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA OVER CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI WITH SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI AND EXTREME SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF WEST TENNESSEE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE WITH HIGHS TODAY FROM THE LOWER 50S TO LOWER 60S. THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL FINALLY START TO FALL APART BUT A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION. THE COLD FRONT WILL BE EAST OF THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT WITH ONLY A SMALL CHANCE OF RAIN EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI.
648 AM EST MON NOV 30 2015 MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND LOW PRESSURE AREA APPROACH THE REGION.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE COASTAL WATERS LATE THIS WEEK.
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE APPROACHING WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFFSHORE WAS PROVIDING MORE LIFT THAN EXPECTED. THE AIR MASS OVER THE LOWLAND INTERIOR WILL IMPROVE TODAY DUE TO INCREASED MIXING. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE WEAK. THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT THE PRECIP MAY START OFF AS VERY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST INTERIOR BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO JUST RAIN. TEMPS AND DEW POINTS WERE STILL BELOW FREEZING AT THIS TIME AND THE QUESTION WAS WHETHER BOTH WILL CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING BEFORE THE PRECIP ARRIVES. A SHORT WAVE RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. IT LOOKS LIKE A WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA ON WED. FREEZING RAIN.
CONTINUED LONG PERIOD SWELL WILL CONTINUE THE HIGHER THREAT FOR RIP CURRENTS TODAY.
Rainfall amounts will be up to a third of an inch, with the highest amounts over northeast Missouri and west central Illinois.
544 AM EST MON NOV 30 2015 STATIONARY FRONT RETURNS AS A WARM FRONT LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. COLD FRONT CROSSES LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
401 AM MST MON NOV 30 2015 UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST TODAY OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST.
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE CWA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND THIS WILL BRING RAIN INTO MOST OF NORTH GEORGIA. THERE IS SOME INSTABILITY IN NORTH GEORGIA AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY. STILL LOOKING AT A VERY WET START TO THE PERIOD AS THE COLD FRONT THAT WAS STALLED JUST NORTH AND WEST OF THE STATE FINALLY GETS A SHOVE EAST.
A weak warm front will lift north across the region today, but it will not be significant enough to even generate much in the way of precipitation. The warm frontal passage is associated with a rather intense upper level low that will be moving northeast through the northern Plains/upper Midwest. A cold front will be quick to follow tonight, and will produce a better chance of showers, especially in wrn KY and sw IN where moisture will have a better opportunity to return. Some rain may linger in the far east/southeast into Tuesday morning, but it still appears that we will finally dry out Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday night as cooler air filters into the region.
EXPECT SFC RIDGING INFLUENCES FROM THE ROCKIES TO BUILD INTO THE REGION ON WED. AND BY WED NIGHT BE JOINED BY THE BEGINNING OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING INFLUENCES.
812 AM EST MON NOV 30 2015 RAIN CHANCES WILL SLOWLY INCREASE TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THE REGION.
THE UPPER LOW WAS LOCATED OVER WYOMING EARLY THIS MORNING. THE UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO THE EAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS. THE HIGHEST PEAKS OF THE CENTRAL MTS MAY SEE 2 TO 4 INCHES OF TOTAL NEW SNOW BY TOMORROW MORNING. WHILE THE LOWER ELEVATIONS THIS MORNING MAY SEE UP TO ONE INCH OF NEW SNOW. MODELS ARE INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME BRISK WINDS THIS AFTN AND EVE AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST OUT OF THE AREA. HIGH READINGS THIS AFTN MAY FINALLY CLIMB TO RIGHT ABOVE FREEZING FOR MANY LOCATIONS ACROSS THE PLAINS. 500 MB RIDGE AXIS WILL BE OVER THE REGION ON THIS DAY AND WINDS WILL BE BE QUITE LIGHT AT THE SFC. A LEE TROUGH SHOULD DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS AND IT SHOULD BE RATHER MILD AND DRY OVER ALL OF THE REGION.
For the time being, have left them out of the TAF since the highest probabilities are east or west of the aforementioned terminals. Weak, low amplitude ridging continues aloft across the Tri-State region ahead of a large cutoff low over the Northern and Central Plains. At the surface, high pressure prevails locally as well, with a quasi-stationary front draped through the Tennessee and Lower Mississippi Valleys.
MALIAWCO THE INTERACTION OF THE LARGE CLOSED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER EASTERN COLORADO AND THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES HAS SET OFF THUNDERSTORMS STRETCHED ACROSS NEARLY THE ENTIRE LENGTH OF THE HIGH PLAINS REGION. MOST OF THE FORECAST ATTENTION WAS DIRECTED TOWARD THE IMMEDIATE NEAR SHORT TERM WITH THE STRONGER N/NW WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TODAY AND POSSIBLE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. THE COLD FRONT HAD PUSHED THROUGH OUR ENTIRE CWA BY 20Z. AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS PASSES OVER NORTHEAST MONTANA. KEEPING THE COLDER AIR OVER OUR NE ZONES AND ALLOWING SOME WARMER AIR TO SNEAK BACK INTO OUR SW ZONES EVER SO GRADUALLY.
134 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015 CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM RACES NORTHWARD FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND INTO NORTHERN INDIANA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MOISTURE HAS POOLED ALONG THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA AND SURFACE TROF / FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS PUSHED OUT OF MICHIGAN. HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY RETREATING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. MUCH COOLER DAY SUNDAY AS THE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION OVERSPREAD THE REGION. THIS TREND APPEARS REASONABLE WITH A DEEP DIGGING UPPER TROF AND A 90 KNOT UPPER JET ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM. MUCH COOLER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK AS A COLD CORE UPPER LOW BECOMES QUASI STATIONARY NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR.
DEFLECTED BY THE DEEP RIDGE COMPLEX. A BROAD AND MULTI-CENTERED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE ATLANTIC RIDGE SURVIVES ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA.
WHICH DEVELOPS OVER MIDDLE TN/NRN AL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH. BY MONDAY MORNING MOST OF THE ISOLATED STORMS THAT FORMED ALONG THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH SHOULD HAVE MOVED OUT OF THE AREA OR WEAKENED OVERNIGHT. AT THIS POINT MODEL FORECASTS AND MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WINDS STAY BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA, BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AS THE COLD FRONT GETS CLOSER.
430 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015 A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS SWEEPING ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE AREA THIS MORNING AS A DISTURBANCE WAS PASSING THROUGH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL UNITED STATES. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE LOWER 60S OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS WITH RISING TEMPERATURES TO NEAR 70 AS YOU MIGRATE INTO THE FAR EASTERN AREA OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA. AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EAST ACROSS THE AREA. THIS SHOULD HELP DRIVE A SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.
WARM FRONT NEAR THE ALTAMAHA WILL LIFT NORTH TODAY PUTTING ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA IN THE WARM SECTOR. A MID/UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS A DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM ACROSS THE UPPER MISS/TENN VALLEY BEGINS TO RACE NE. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH THE REGION. OUT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
507 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015 COLD FRONT CURRENTLY PUSHING INTO THE FAR SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE THIS MORNING. BUT WILL SEE THIS MIX OUT AS THE SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT DIVES SOUTH. AS THE UPPER TROUGH PUSHES FARTHER EASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS. SURFACE RIDGING WILL SLIDE OVERHEAD TONIGHT ALLOWING WINDS TO DROPOFF. LOCALES EAST OF THE CAPROCK ESCARPMENT SHOULD DROP INTO THE LOW-MID 40S. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY SCALE BACK PRECIP CHANCES ALONG OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES IN THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE LATE MONDAY DUE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS ASSOCIATED WITH THE EXITING CLOSED LOW PUSHING FARTHER EAST AND PULLED FARTHER NORTH AS IT GETS ABSORBED INTO THE POLAR JET.
PIECE OF ENERGY AND COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN IMPEDING UPON THE CWA FROM THE WEST. MODELS AGREE THAT THERE WILL BE A GOOD BIT OF RECOVERY AND INCREASED SEVERE WEATHER PARAMETERS THIS EVENING AS A PRE- FRONTAL TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS IN FROM THE WEST. NOTICEABLY COOLER DRIER AIR WILL ADVECT INTO THE CWA ON MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.
More scattered activty is expected this afternoon as the upper level low over western KS opens up and shifts eastward to near the KS MO border by 00Z Monday. The models depict upper level divergence over our forecast area ahead of the upper level trough. Some of the high resolution explicit models depict a narrow line of convection shifting eastward through our forecast area this afternoon. With more cloud cover and precipitation today the highs will not be quite as warm as yesterday, but will still be slightly above normal.
312 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015 THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ROTATING OVER NORTHWESTERN KANSAS THIS MORNING IS EXPECTED TO TRACK EAST SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS A COLD FRONT DROPS DOWN FROM THE NORTH. EXPECT SHOWER ACTIVITY TO COME TO AN END DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS AS DRIER AND COOLER AIR FILTERS IN BEHIND THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. EXPECT SHOWERS AND MAYBE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM TO CONTINUE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO WRAP AROUND THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL LOW.
LOW PRESSURE ADVANCING OUT OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL SPREAD CLOUDS AND EVENTUALLY SHOWERS OVER THE REGION.
323 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TODAY THEN MOVE TO THE EAST TONIGHT. A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA THROUGH MONDAY FOR DRY CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND DURING THE PERIOD.
337 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015 SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY END FROM WEST TO EAST THIS MORNING AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT. AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL INCREASE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ON MONDAY.
A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WL LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE MIDWEST AND OHIO RIVER VALLEY THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. AN ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT EXTENDS SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO IS FORECAST TO BECOME MORE WEST EAST ORIENTED WHILE SLOWING TONIGHT AS THE FRONT BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE MID LEVEL FLOW.
MORNING WATER VAPOR AND STREAMLINE ANALYSIS PLACES UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER EASTERN COLORADO AND WESTERN KANSAS. COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THROUGH THE DAY AND THIS MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH TO GENERATE SOME CONVECTION. CONFIDENCE IS ON THE LOW END OF THE SPECTRUM WITH REGARDS TO SEVERE WEATHER AND WILL NOT MENTION SEVERE IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE PREVALENT ON MONDAY BEHIND COLD FRONT.
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE PANHANDLES THIS MORNING BRINGING UNSEASONABLY COOLER CONDITIONS TODAY AND MONDAY ALONG WITH STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS TO MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE COLD FRONT OVER NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO PUSHES EASTWARD INTO THE EXTREME NORTHWEST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA AS AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES THE PANHANDLES FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. SOME CONVECTION OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN COLORADO AND NORTHERN NEW MEXICO PROPAGATES INTO THE EXTREME NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON.
HIGHS MONDAY WITH INCREASING CLOUDINESS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES WITH AXIS TO THE WEST OF IDAHO AT FIRST. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS HAS MOVED TO THE WESTERN BORDER OF THE GEM STATE. BUT THERE IS A WEAK IMPULSE MOVING THROUGH THE RIDGE THAT APPEARS TO BRING SOME CLOUDINESS AND POTENTIAL SHOWERS WHEN AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ARRIVES. THE UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AFTER THE DRY COLD FRONT OF LAST SAT WILL USHER IN SOME COOLER AIR THAT WILL MODIFY UNDER THE HIGH WITH THE STRONG SUNSHINE. WITH SNAKE RIVER PLAIN HIGHS REACHING INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S. AS LONG AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS CLOSE.
330 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015 LOOKING AT A LOOP OF THE RADAR MOSAIC AND WATER VAPOR THE UPPER LOW CENTER IS CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL WESTERN KANSAS. EXPECT THIS WITH ONE OF THE LOBES OF VORTICITY THAT WILL MOVE AROUND THE UPPER LOW. BUT THE HIGHER RESOLUTION GUIDANCE HAS THEM INCREASING IN COVERAGE TOWARDS 18Z OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS. AS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST ALL INSTABILITY WILL PUSH EASTWARD AS WELL. THE COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AS WELL TODAY.
A ridge of high pressure will begin to build over the region beginning Monday.
VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period, with southwest winds veering to the northwest Sunday morning as a cold front moves into the area. Aside from any residual thunderstorms over the Lower Trans Pecos this afternoon, the forecast will remain dry through Sunday as moist low level air will be shunted eastward. A cold front will also drop into the area Sunday and keep temperatures seasonal, but there does not appear to be enough moisture for any precipitation. There may be enough moisture return Monday afternoon for a few thunderstorms in the Davis Mountains, with any convection spreading into the Lower Trans Pecos Monday night on the return moisture axis.
426 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015 AN UPPER LOW WILL SWING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY. THIS SHOULD DISRUPT THE TYPICAL PRE-DRYLINE MOISTURE FLUX AND REDUCE THE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY.
507 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015 AN UPPER LOW WILL SWING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY. THIS SHOULD DISRUPT THE TYPICAL PRE-DRYLINE MOISTURE FLUX AND REDUCE THE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY.
325 AM PDT SUN APR 19 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS PRODUCING DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND FOR THE VALLEY AND FOOTHILLS.
213 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015 AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO LATE, COULD PROVIDE ENOUGH FORCING FOR STORMS AFFECTING PBI LATE, AND POSSIBLY SOME SHRAS AT APF. SUFFICIENT AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE GULF WILL ALLOW FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE EXPECTED ACROSS PALM BEACH COUNTY. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD INTO NORTH FLORIDA WHILE THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE GULF SLOWLY STARTS TO WEAKEN. ON MONDAY THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE SINKING SOUTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA MAINTAINING ABUNDANT MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATING THE PWAT FORECAST TO BE AROUND 1.
424 AM MDT SUN APR 19 2015 BAND OF SHOWERS ON THE BACK EDGE OF THE UPPER LOW DROPPING THROUGH DENVER NOW. BUT STILL SOME CLOUDS AND SHALLOW CONVECTION SO I WILL HANG ON TO THE LOW POPS FOR TODAY AND DROP THE HIGHS SLIGHTLY. BUT AGAIN ENOUGH FOR THE LOW POPS. FOR NOW IT DOES LOOK LIKE THERE WILL BE WIDESPREAD FREEZING TEMPERATURES WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S IN MOST AREAS TONIGHT.
408 AM CDT Sun Apr 19 2015 Today - Tonight: Today's weather will be governed by the transition of an upper level closed low to an open wave. Latest water vapor satellite imagery shows the closed upper low has now shifted east into west central KS early this morning.
A PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL SPILL OVER THE ROCKIES AND SLIDE SOUTHEASTWARD TODAY REACHING THE NORTHWEST AREAS AFTER 2 PM. THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH MOST OF THE REGION BEFORE MIDNIGHT AND OFF THE COAST SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT (THOUGH OUTFLOW MAY OUTRUN THE FRONT) AND WILL LEAD TO A COOLER NIGHT AND A VERY PLEASANT MONDAY.
SOME LOW CEILINGS AND FOG MAY IMPACT A FEW OF TERMINALS BETWEEN 06Z AND 13Z THIS MORNING AS A WEAK LOW LEVEL INVERSION DEVELOPS AND THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE REMAINS QUITE MOIST.
1104 PM MDT SAT APR 18 2015 UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION AS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER COLORADO. IT WILL CONTINUE TO WRAP SOME MORE MOISTURE AROUND THE LOW INTO EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT. THERE WILL BE SOME LOWERING SNOW LEVELS AS A COLD FRONT DROPS DOWN FROM THE NORTH EARLY THIS EVENING ALONG WITH A SHORT WAVE DROPPING OUT OF CANADA. MOST AREAS WILL NOTICE GUSTY NORTH WINDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH THE FRONT EARLY IN THE PERIOD BUT THERE WILL BE A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS OCCURRING WEST OF THE MAIN CLOUD SHIELD FROM OUR RESIDENT LOW. THE BACK SIDE OF OUR KICKER TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE AREA WITH A FEW GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUING ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES BUT OVERALL IT WILL BE A DRIER DAY.
354 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND WILL BRING DRY AND SEASONAL CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND.
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT.
412 AM CDT Sun Apr 19 2015 (Today and tonight) Cold front will be moving in mid to late morning.
553 AM CDT Sun Apr 19 2015 /12Z TAFS/ Stratus with IFR/MVFR ceiling south of a San Angelo to Brady line at 11Z will dissipate mid morning, as dry northwest winds of 10-15 KTS develop behind a Pacific cold front. /ISSUED 412 AM CDT Sun Apr 19 2015/ (Today and tonight) Cold front will be moving in mid to late morning.
155 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015 A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WITH TRANQUIL CONDITIONS.
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN COLORADO BEGINS TO SHIFT SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA. AHEAD OF LOW AND APPROACHING COLD FRONT. COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP EAST OF THE REGION THIS EVENING WITH THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT ENDING.
THE WARMING/DRYING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL PUSH INLAND TONIGHT AND MONDAY FOR WARMER TEMPERATURES AND A RETURN TO CLEAR/SUNNY SKIES.
357 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015 UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER EASTERN MT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. OPEN TROUGH WILL CLOSE OFF TODAY, SLOWLY DRIFT EAST OF LS, AND EXPAND TO COVER MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST PART OF THE US BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. UPPER LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP ON EAST SIDE OF THE TROUGH. ANOTHER JET WILL DIVE SOUTH ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE TROUGH ON MON. THE JET ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN ZONES OR FARTHER WEST THROUGH THE PERIOD. MOST OF THE FRONTOGENESIS WITH THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED WITH THE COLD FRONT OVER CENTRAL ND.
Appropriately so, it will be about 2-3C cooler at 85h with front turning winds to the nw-n this PM. SE winds will increase Mon PM in response to falling surface pressures to the w and this will preclude any thoughts of a warming trend, in fact Mon PM will be a few degrees cooler than Sunday, in part due to increased clouds. The 85h thermal ridge will amplify Tue and a noticeable warm-up will occur with dry air pushing e out to the PB underneath flat mid level ridging. Mid level flow backs Thur and a shrtwv trof will have a chance to move across and slight chance PoPs are warranted.
559 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015 THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ROTATING OVER NORTHWESTERN KANSAS THIS MORNING IS EXPECTED TO TRACK EAST SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS A COLD FRONT DROPS DOWN FROM THE NORTH. EXPECT SHOWER ACTIVITY TO COME TO AN END DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS AS DRIER AND COOLER AIR FILTERS IN BEHIND THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. EXPECT SHOWERS AND MAYBE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM TO CONTINUE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO WRAP AROUND THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL LOW.
344 AM MDT SUN APR 19 2015 LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED THE CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER WESTERN KS. WITH A TROUGH TRAVERSING THE NORTHERN PLAINS. A STRONG SURFACE COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM NORTHWEST NE TO THE CO-WY BORDER SOUTH OF CHEYENNE. 6HRLY PRESSURE RISES OF 3-4 MB BEHIND THE FRONT GENERATED GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 25-40 MPH ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE 00Z DETERMINISTIC MODEL GUIDANCE PROGGING THE CENTRAL PLAINS UPPER LOW TO WEAKEN TO A TROUGH AS IT TRACKS EAST TOWARD THE MID MS VALLEY THROUGH TONIGHT. THE TROUGH OVER THE DAKOTAS ENTERS THE UPPER MIDWEST TONIGHT.