Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
324 PM MDT Wed Sep 16 2020 Cold front has swept through the eastern plains today, bringing gusty e-ne winds and slightly cooler temperatures to most locations along and east of the mountains. Outside of the smoke, weather will be quiet, with just a few cumulus build ups over the higher terrain again on Thu afternoon. Min temps tonight will drop to seasonably cool levels, while max temps on Fri will begin to creep higher, as upper level high pressure slowly builds eastward and mid level temps get a small upward nudge. Mostly northwest flow will remain aloft as the upper-level ridge persists over the area, keeping things warm and relatively dry through the rest of this week. High temperatures will remain in the high 80s-low 90s over most of the plains and stick to the mid-low 70s over the valleys.
However, as the upper trough that aided in its development continues to approach, the nocturnal activity near its core may impact our southwestern and south central zones Thursday morning. During the peak heating hours Thursday afternoon, the trough axis will stretch through Central and East Texas where the bulk of the daytime convective activity should be. Highway 377 corridor (Comanche/Stephenville-Fort Worth-Texoma), northwest of which the mid-level dry intrusion on the backside of the trough should stifle surface parcels.
337 PM MDT Wed Sep 16 2020 Looking at satellite today it appears to be opposite day as ridgetop clouds were moving off the ridgetops back to the West. The H500 hand analysis pattern showed the northeast winds aloft were in place due to high pressure over the northern Great Basin being undercut by low pressure over the Southern High Plains. The high to our West will be translating over the CWA overnight and bring back the upper Westerlies. Dry conditions continue with this ridge fully in control and temperatures will remain 5 to 10 degrees mid September norms.
825 PM EDT Wed Sep 16 2020 A cold front will pass through the area tonight accompanied by increasing clouds and scattered light showers and sprinkles.
729 PM EDT Wed Sep 16 2020 Mainly dry weather will continue under high pressure. A cold front will cross on Thursday, providing a cooler air mass that will remain in place through the weekend. With a lack of moisture and with the best upper support remaining off to the north, only isolated showers are foreseen at most, mainly north of US-422 (best of the weak upper jet support) and along the ridges (due to frontal timing and slight moisture increase from Sally remnants). A shower or two may linger into Thursday evening along the ridges.
/EC/ Prior discussion below: Tomorrow: There may be enough lift associated with an upper-level trough moving overhead tomorrow to initiate a few showers or an isolated storm, but instability may be hard to come by with drier surface air working in from the north and poor mid- level lapse rates. /NF/ Showers will be tapering off Thursday night as a dry cold front approaches the region from the north.
Temperatures have risen to the low to mid 80s ahead of the cold air advection associated with the cold front that is draped from southwest to north central Kansas into eastern Nebraska. The highlighted area is across north central Kansas for now.
923 PM CDT Wed Sep 16 2020 While we have lost most of the low level cumulus this evening, still dealing with plentiful mid and high level cloud cover, some of which is associated with a departing Sally but most of it associated with a persistent upper trough which was located from the Big Bend area of Texas to near Eastern Oklahoma and Southwest Missouri. Still looking for a little more in the way of storm coverage Thursday afternoon due to moisture in place and forcing from the upper trough with most of this to take place across our western half. Given the proximity of a weak trough across Central and NE TX Thu Aftn, did add VCTS to the TYR, GGG and LFK terminal in the 18z-20z timeframe.
820 PM EDT Wed Sep 16 2020 Mainly dry weather will continue under high pressure. A cold front will cross on Thursday, providing a cooler air mass that will remain in place through the weekend. With a lack of moisture and with the best upper support remaining off to the north, only isolated showers are foreseen at most, mainly north of US-422 (best of the weak upper jet support) and along the ridges (due to frontal timing and slight moisture increase from Sally remnants). A shower or two may linger into Thursday evening along the ridges.
833 PM MDT Wed Sep 16 2020 Smoke really did a number on high temperatures today, keeping things cooler than projected. This has led to cooler readings this evening with temperatures already falling to around 60 degrees and dry air in place. TWH Strong high pressure aloft will keep the region dry thru the short term period. Significant smoke cover aloft along with the upslope winds are keeping temps cooler than expected today. The exception being the high terrain which will be better mixed, drier and warmer.
This is not a continuous deck, so it will likely help some areas stay a tad warmer than others. Dew pts upstream are in the 20s in Manitoba with clear sky, light winds conditions are set for a good radiational cooling night, cooler than what most guidance would suggest. Upper ridge building from the Northern Rockies and High Plains during Sat will offer dry weather and a boost in temp of several degrees. On Sun the ridge will be overhead with southerly sfc flow building more of a breeze and temps challenging the 80 degree mark over some areas to the south. Timing on RW/iso TSRA could be a little later in the day as trailing cold front may be slow moving into central, then eastern ND.
645 PM CDT Wed Sep 16 2020 A cold front now over southern Iowa will drop through the area overnight. A broad area of high pressure initially building southward into the great Lakes and Upper Mississippi River valley with slowly move eastward towards New England by the weekend and remain there into nest week.
728 PM CDT Wed Sep 16 2020 (This evening through Thursday) Weak upper low/shear axis will continue to slowly move across the region tonight into Thursday.
914 PM CDT Wed Sep 16 2020 Latest surface analysis is showing that the cold front extending from Kansas City to Kirksville to Peoria. A cold front extending from northern MI southwest to the northwest tip of MO will move southeastward through our forecast area tonight and Thursday morning. These northerly winds will bring cooler air into our area, and this will be the beginning of a cooling trend.
Middlesboro has been the only sight to report light rain thus far early this morning, but most likely this has been mostly sprinkles given the high ceilings in the area. Thus, generally went cooler for highs for most of the area today, outside of the northern area and perhaps our southwest zones.
Temperatures will be slightly cooler than yesterday, but the lower dew points will likely be more noticeable than the cooler temperatures. Lows tonight should drop into the lower 50s given the drier air.
Another night of cloud free conditions across the state with surface analysis showing high pressure settling over the northern states.
234 AM EDT Thu Sep 17 2020 The remnants of Sally pass to the south today and a dry cold front moves through tonight. High pressure with dry, cool weather for the weekend, and slight warming through midweek. A mainly dry cold front arrives late this afternoon and progresses through the area from NNW to SSE through the evening hours. A subtle pressure trough at the surface, also evident as a 925mb temperature trough, combined with a saturated layer below an 850mb inversion necessitates some low end POPs creeping back into the picture for the mountains well after the remnants of Sally have passed on to the mid Atlantic coast.
The combination of the cooler airmass and still filtered sunshine/hazy conditions from western wildfire smoke will hold temperatures in the 70s for the majority of the area this aftn. Winds will be fairly light and variable for much of the morning before transitioning southerly on the back side of the ridge axis. High resolution models indicate the higher concentrations of near surface smoke should primarily remain to our west today, but as we see the return flow, some of that near surface smoke could edge back into our western counties.
200 AM EDT Thu Sep 17 2020 A cold front will pass through the area tonight accompanied by increasing clouds and scattered light showers and sprinkles.
As of early this morning, a cold front has pushed south of the forecast area, and outside of a few lingering clouds at 5kft over central Missouri, clear skies prevail. As advertised, high temperatures will be cooler today with afternoon readings in the 70s.
Thus, cooler than average temperatures with highs in the low 60s to mid 70s are once again expected, along with hazy skies (likely thick enough to affect temps).
1049 PM CDT Wed Sep 16 2020 Quiet weather continues with prior frontal passage bringing cooler air to the region in its wake.
Early this morning, the synoptic regime was characterized by a Hudson Bay low, northwest flow over the Northern Plains, and another upper low off the west coast. At the surface, high pressure was centered over southern Manitoba, with calm winds and a mid-level cloud deck extending from the northwest corner through the north central, and down to the northern James River Valley.
Another nice day is expected as we remain on the front side of an upper ridge. This will be the force behind the cold front that will move through the CWA today. Highs should make it to the low 80s. Tomorrow night, high pressure keeps things uneventful.
Some spots in the far northeastern counties may see enough clear skies and light winds to drop near freezing again, but uncertainty is high and with current headlines going will leave anything for tonight off for now.
1137 PM MDT Wed Sep 16 2020 Cold front has swept through the eastern plains today, bringing gusty e-ne winds and slightly cooler temperatures to most locations along and east of the mountains. Outside of the smoke, weather will be quiet, with just a few cumulus build ups over the higher terrain again on Thu afternoon. Min temps tonight will drop to seasonably cool levels, while max temps on Fri will begin to creep higher, as upper level high pressure slowly builds eastward and mid level temps get a small upward nudge. Mostly northwest flow will remain aloft as the upper-level ridge persists over the area, keeping things warm and relatively dry through the rest of this week. High temperatures will remain in the high 80s-low 90s over most of the plains and stick to the mid-low 70s over the valleys.
146 AM EDT Thu Sep 17 2020 A cold front will cross the region this morning, but a lack of deep moisture will inhibit rainfall.
416 AM EDT Thu Sep 17 2020 A cold front will push southeast across the area today and tonight.
(Today and tonight) Water vapor imagery shows a weak, elongated upper trough axis is centered over west Texas and extends into central Oklahoma, with a large upper ridge over the western US. Models show the trough continuing to drift southward and weaken through the day. Highs should generally be in the low to mid 80s areawide this afternoon. Other feature of interest today will be wildfire smoke that once again looks to enter the area as steering flow aloft around the upper ridge to our west brings a smoke plume southward into our area.
Ridging aloft prevails again today with a warming trend as 700 mb temperatures rise to near 12 Celsius.
A weak short wave trough moving through the northeast flow aloft will slide overhead later this morning into the afternoon. However, we will be on the back side of a trough a larger trough at 250mb which will place the region in a broad area of subsident air. This will act to keep temperatures a few degrees lower with surface ridging building into the area.
305 AM CDT Thu Sep 17 2020 A cold front is currently stretched across the forecast area from central Oklahoma through central Missouri into central Illinois, and is expected to exit the area by 12-15Z. High pressure will build in behind the front at the surface and in the lower-levels, while aloft northwest flow will persist into the weekend.
325 AM CDT Thu Sep 17 2020 Clear skies and light winds are in place this morning with high pressure centered over northern Minnesota. Farther east in Wisconsin, nearly steady temperatures in the low to mid 40s have lessened the threat from Polk to Rusk counties, therefore the Frost Advisory was cancelled there. This patchy overcast has cast doubt on frost formation again tonight and models are considerably warmer in spots, despite high pressure centered over northeastern MN and northern WI.
1058 PM CDT Wed Sep 16 2020 Another fairly quiet day across the region, with early afternoon analysis showing a cold front stretching from southeast Wisconsin to Kansas. As the cold front advanced southeastward, smoke was gradually clearing out behind it. Expect clear skies tonight as high pressure builds in behind the front. For Thursday, high pressure will continue building in and lead to a very quiet, but cooler day, with highs in the 50s and 60s.
CD Chattanooga Airport, TN 79 66 79 61 76 / 50 30 20 10 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 76 63 75 58 75 / 80 30 20 10 10 Oak Ridge, TN 78 63 76 57 76 / 50 20 20 10 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 74 61 72 54 73 / 80 40 30 20 10 NC.
441 AM EDT Thu Sep 17 2020 Under mostly clear to partly cloudy skies, temperatures are averaging in the lower 80s along the Island Chain. A western Atlantic ridge axis will extend across South Florida will slowly decay and splinter, as a trough of low pressure settles down the Sunshine State and the adjacent Atlantic and Gulf waters. The lengthy and eroded ridge axis lying near South Florida, will dissipate as the trough of low pressure is expected to drop into the Straits of Florida. This will be in response to a modest high pressure system centered over the mid Atlantic States pressing southward in addition to the possibility of weak low pressure developing near the Bahamian Chain.
What also might hinder the low stratus/stratocu development will be the increasing AC and cirrus cigs from the SW, as a weak upper trough drifts E into SW AR/NE TX through this afternoon.
1143 PM MDT Wed Sep 16 2020 Looking at satellite today it appears to be opposite day as ridgetop clouds were moving off the ridgetops back to the West. The H500 hand analysis pattern showed the northeast winds aloft were in place due to high pressure over the northern Great Basin being undercut by low pressure over the Southern High Plains. The high to our West will be translating over the CWA overnight and bring back the upper Westerlies. Dry conditions continue with this ridge fully in control and temperatures will remain 5 to 10 degrees above mid September norms.
The air mass will be a bit drier, however, we will still have the influence of the upper level trough to our N/NW. Precip could just end up being more on the isolated/weaker side of things, but the trough along with stronger winds aloft could be sufficient for isolated to scattered showers/tstorms development.
1255 AM EDT Thu Sep 17 2020 A cold front will cross the region this morning, but a lack of deep moisture will inhibit rainfall.
Gusty north wind is expected this aftn as a dry cold front drops into the area. /EC/ Prior discussion below: Tomorrow: There may be enough lift associated with an upper-level trough moving overhead tomorrow to initiate a few showers or an isolated storm, but instability may be hard to come by with drier surface air working in from the north and poor mid- level lapse rates. /NF/ Showers will be tapering off Thursday night as a dry cold front approaches the region from the north.
142 AM EDT Thu Sep 17 2020 Slightly warmer temperatures will persist into the overnight before a cold front from the north starts to move through the region Thursday morning. Cooler and drier air gradually move in after the frontal passage.
350 AM CDT Thu Sep 17 2020 Today and Tonight: Warmer than normal and mostly dry through tonight. The remnants of Sally will continue to shift northeast of our CWA through tonight but wl maintain a northerly low level flow that will bring a dry cold front into the northern portions of our CWA this afternoon and south of our southern most zones tonight. Our winds aloft will continue out of the southwest as our CWA remains down stream of an upper level trough noted on satellite imagery early this morning over the Southern Plains. Temperatures will top out in the upper 80s this afternoon which is several degrees warmer than normal. In the wake of the dry cold front tonight, cooler temperatures are expected by morning. Normal lows run in the low to mid 60s.
301 AM EDT Thu Sep 17 2020 A mostly dry cold front will move through the area today with only a slight chance for some very light rain.
205 AM MDT Thu Sep 17 2020 An upper ridge over the western CONUS will slowly shift eastward over the next few days as an upper trough/low moves into the Pacific Northwest.
1120 PM CDT Wed Sep 16 2020 (This evening through Thursday) Weak upper low/shear axis will continue to slowly move across the region tonight into Thursday.
930 PM PDT Wed Sep 16 2020 Hot weather will continue in most areas Thursday under high pressure aloft.
A weak cold front will develop from the panhandle into the western Sandhills this afternoon as a slightly cooler airmass exists north and east of the area. Highs today were lowered slightly across the north and east from near 75 at O'Neill and 79 at Valentine, while warmest in the low to mid 80s west and southwest.
Did wind up adjusting some of the low temperatures up just a bit, based on the latest trends in observations. Winds will be more northerly during the day tomorrow, and with the increased cloud cover through the first half of the day, expect temps to a be a few degrees cooler than that of today. The beginning of the forecast period will see the exit of the remnants of Sally as it gets picked up by an upper level trough and pushed out to the north and east.
1211 AM CDT Thu Sep 17 2020 Scattered to broken clouds will continue overnight as an upper trough extends from Arkansas into northeast Texas.
1031 PM MDT Wed Sep 16 2020 Weak high pressure continues this afternoon over the area after a cool front slid down the east side of the divide last night. Afternoon temperatures are cooler than yesterday to just above normal levels as 700mb temps dropped a few degrees. Morning low temperatures should be a bit warmer than Wednesday morning.
352 AM CDT Thu Sep 17 2020 Heading into the weekend, dry weather is expected as an upper level ridge currently over the western U.
Right now the The highest rainfall amounts in GA have occurred just to the NE of Sally's center across Macon/Peach/Crawford counties.
315 AM CDT Thu Sep 17 2020 Current morning temperatures are in the low to mid 70s, with northerly winds. Temperatures this afternoon will rise to the low to mid 80s, with mostly sunny skies. By this afternoon cold front will approach northern portions of the Mid-South.
346 AM CDT Thu Sep 17 2020 Cool and dry weather with breezy northeast winds can be expected into the weekend as high pressure builds into the Great Lakes region. Cold front has reached approximately I-70 early this morning with north winds developing behind the front and cooler, drier air moving in from the north. Cloud cover behind the front should start to decrease by afternoon as influence of high pressure approaching from the NW increases.
Circulation around the system has effectively produced a cold front that is now over our coastal waters. Dew points across the area are primarily in the upper 60s with most 3 am CDT temperatures in the lower and middle 70s.
356 AM EDT Thu Sep 17 2020 So far a mostly cloudy, and some smoke, day across Upper Michigan behind a cold front that passed through this morning. Heading into tonight, high pressure will continue to funnel in from the Canadian Prairies, leading to clearing skies and winds becoming lighter. Will stick with the frost advisory as temperatures will fall into the low 30s regardless. Either way, lows in the low 30 to mid 30s interior and near 40 along Lake Superior. Tomorrow, high pressure continues to build over the Upper Great Lakes region, leading to lighter winds and no precipitation chances. Otherwise clear skies and temps generally in the low to mid 50s.
High pressure was dominating much of the central United States, and will continue to do so through the foreseeable future. As drier air advects into the Ozarks from the northern Plains, temperatures will follow suit tonight by dropping cooler than what we've experienced as of late. High pressure aloft and at the surface will offer stable weather with ideal temperatures for outdoor activities.
Significant smoke cover aloft along with the upslope winds kept temps cooler than expected yesterday. Low level winds look weak initially through the morning today, but there is another surge of cooler air backdooring into the area by afternoon which will lead to more easterly flow later today. So while we should be warmer than yesterday at many locations, we continued to undercut guidance. The exception being the high terrain which will be better mixed, drier and warmer.
354 AM EDT Thu Sep 17 2020 A cold front will cross the region this morning, but a lack of deep moisture will inhibit rainfall.
212 AM MDT Thu Sep 17 2020 MORNING DISCUSSION: Synoptic Setup: Forecast begins with a trough of cold air moving through central Canada and a large area of hot high pressure over the western third of the CONUS. Farther west a large low pressure system sets of the coast of the Pacific Northwest.
The highest concentrations will be along and south of Interstate 90. Low temperatures will be in the 30s in north-central Wisconsin and in the lower to mid-30s elsewhere.
Thus, cooler than average temperatures with highs in the low 60s to mid 70s are once again expected, along with hazy skies (likely thick enough to affect temps). On Friday, an upper ridge shifts from the Rockies east towards Plains, but the edge of the warmest air aloft should only progress east as far as western SD.
Today Through Friday Night What's left of Sally will continue to be pushed toward the east coast today as it gets absorbed into a longwave trough over the Appalachians. Meanwhile, a cold front currently located over southern Missouri will move into the region today and tonight on northwest/quasi-meridional flow aloft. But, the good news is the front will bring cooler temperatures.
Middlesboro has been the only sight to report light rain thus far early this morning, but most likely this has been mostly sprinkles given the high ceilings in the area. Thus, generally went cooler for highs for most of the area today, outside of the northern area and perhaps our southwest zones. The period will start with a large scale upper trough over the Great Lakes, New England, and southeast Canada. At the surface, a strong and sprawling high pressure system will be centered over the Great Lakes.
Upper ridge over the area today will keep the forecast dry. Winds will be lighter today and increase from the south in the afternoon bringing another warm up after yesterday's slightly cooler temperatures across the east.
/issued 315 AM CDT Thu Sep 17 2020/ Current morning temperatures are in the low to mid 70s, with northerly winds. Temperatures this afternoon will rise to the low to mid 80s, with mostly sunny skies. By this afternoon cold front will approach northern portions of the Mid-South. By the weekend a ridge will build in keeping lows in the 50s and highs in the mid to low 70s.