Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Temperatures Wednesday will rise above freezing for all but central Missouri, which should allow any remaining snow/ice covered roads to improve during the day.
1202 PM EST TUE JAN 19 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY TO THE CAROLINAS.
UPPER TROUGH WILL DEPART TO THE EAST AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BRIEFLY BUILDS IN. DO TO ANTICIPATE ANY WIND CHILL HEADLINES TONIGHT THOUGH A FEW RIDGE TOP LOCATIONS COULD APPROACH -10 EARLY THIS EVE UNTIL WIND DIMINISHES. SO ACCUMULATIONS WERE KEPT LIGHT WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ALONG THE HIGH TERRAIN. SO HIGH TEMPERATURES WERE KEPT ON THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE.
333 PM EST TUE JAN 19 2016 AVIATION SECTION UPDATED A SERIES OF HIGH AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
152 PM EST TUE JAN 19 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BRIEFLY FOR TONIGHT AND MOST OF WEDNESDAY. AFTER ANOTHER BRIEF VISIT FROM HIGH PRESSURE. SOMEONE IN THE CWA MAY CRACK FREEZING.
WEAK RIDGING OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING WILL PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS, THOUGH ENOUGH MOISTURE MOVING THROUGH THE RIDGE FOR INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. UPSTREAM UPPER TROF MOVING ONSHORE WEST COAST NOW AND WILL TO WESTERN MONTANA LATE THIS EVENING. CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA WILL BE UNDERNEATH A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TODAY BUT AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE OF SNOW TONIGHT.
however limited moisture return will allow temps to quickly wet bulb below freezing once precipitation becomes more widespread. The result will be a period of light snow and light freezing drizzle primarily across far eastern OK / western AR this evening.
243 PM CST TUE JAN 19 2016 A SHRTWV TROF ADVECTING THROUGH NW FLOW LEAD TO SNOW ACROSS THE IOWA AND N MO THIS AFTERNOON. A LOOK AT THE FORECAST PLUMES SUGGESTS THAT THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FOR 3+ INCHES WILL BE ACROSS OUR EXTREME SOUTH.
300 PM CST TUE JAN 19 2016 SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN THIS EVENING AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE NOSES SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE ROLLING PLAINS INTO CENTRAL TEXAS. A MORE POTENT WAVE IN VERY PROGRESSIVE WESTERLY FLOW WILL RACE FROM THE INTERIOR WEST THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WE SIDED WITH WARMER AND BREEZIER SOLUTIONS IN THIS PATTERN RATHER THAN BLENDING AND THUS PERHAPS UNDER FORECASTING WIND SPEEDS BY 10+ MPH AND TEMPERATURES AS WELL BY 5-8 DEGREES.
227 PM CST TUE JAN 19 2016 FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL REMAIN MOST PREVALENT ALONG/EAST OF THE KANSAS TURNPIKE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. IS POSSIBLE AS THE PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROF MOVES FROM CENTRAL ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS EARLY THIS EVENING.
940 AM PST TUE JAN 19 2016 A WEAK TROUGH MAY GENERATE LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER PORTIONS OF THE REGION LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.
THERE HAVE BEEN SOME THIN AREAS AND HOLES IN THE HIGHER BASED LOW CLOUDS FOLLOWING THE SNOWFALL. HAVE ELECTED TO GO WITHOUT FOG MENTION IN THE GRIDS FOR NOW DUE TO THE INCREASING STRENGTH OF THE LOW LEVEL FLOW AND THE APPARENT LACK OF VERY RICH MOISTURE NEXT TO THE SURFACE. BUT IF SOME DEVELOPS IN THE STRATUS WOULD THINK IT WOULD BE FLURRIES/SNOW GRAINS INSTEAD OF FREEZING DRIZZLE.
BUT SNOWFALL RATES SHOULD BEGIN TO PICK UP ON WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES BEGIN TO STEEPEN. THE BIGGER CONCERN WILL BE THE ARLINGTON ZONE WHERE THE LOW LEVEL HEIGHT GRADIENT (800-700MB) IS EXPECTED TO TIGHTEN WHICH SHOULD FAVOR MUCH STRONGER WINDS WITH SPEEDS UP 50 MPH. THE NEXT CONCERN IS THE HIGH WIND POTENTIAL IN BORDEAUX.
STILL EXPECTING SUNNY SKIES WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S ACROSS THE AREA. DRY AND COOLER THEN NORMAL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXITS EASTWARD. WITH WAA AND BROAD RIDGING FOLLOWING IN ITS WAKE.
301 PM CST TUE JAN 19 2016 Wrapping up a messy forecast this afternoon as areas of freezing drizzle slowly transition over to light snow across the southwestern half of the CWA.
123 PM EST TUE JAN 19 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
1141 AM EST TUE JAN 19 2016 12Z DTX SOUNDING REVEALS PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN THE LOWEST 3500FT AGL FOR STRATOCU PRODUCTION AT THE 820MB INVERSION ONCE DIURNAL MIXING COMMENCES. ISSUED 319 AM EST TUE JAN 19 2016 SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/PV TAIL DESCENDING SOUTH THROUGH SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN THIS MORNING WITH EXCELLENT SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING TAKING PLACE TODAY.
1257 PM EST TUE JAN 19 2016 ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH MID WEEK. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND. CONTINUING CAA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH TEMPS CURRENTLY IN THE UPPER TEENS/LOW 20S WITH A NW BREEZE PRODUCING WIND CHILLS IN THE HIGH SINGLE DIGIT/LOW TEENS. GUSTY NW WINDS WILL MAKE IT FEEL LIKE ITS NO HIGHER THAN THE LOW/MID 20S DESPITE FULL SUNSHINE. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST AND DISSIPATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
SOME DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE MAY OCCUR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING IN FAR NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. WITH THE FREEZING LINE MEANDERING ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA AGAIN. THIS MEANS THAT FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL BE THE MOST LIKELY PRECIPITATION TYPE NORTH OF THE SURFACE FREEZING LINE.
WARM AIR ALOFT AND BELOW FREEZING TEMPS AT THE SURFACE COULD CAUSE LIGHT FREEZING RAIN TO FALL.
THERE COULD BE BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN FROM INTERSTATE 40 NORTHWARD BUT FROM WHAT I'VE SEEN IT LOOKS LIKE MAINLY A SNOW EVENT BASED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS.
1237 PM EST TUE JAN 19 2016 ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY.
LATEST RAP AND OTHER SHORT-TERM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE AS FAR WEST AS HUTCHINSON- SALINA. A PERIOD OF LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH EARLY EVENING BUT ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT GIVEN THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE MID/UPPER TROUGH AND LACK OF COUPLED FORCING/SCARCE MOISTURE AVAILABILITY. TEMPERATURES MAY EVEN RISE ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN KANSAS RESULTING IN DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
WEAK RIDGING OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING WILL PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS, THOUGH ENOUGH MOISTURE MOVING THROUGH THE RIDGE FOR INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. UPSTREAM UPPER TROF MOVING ONSHORE WEST COAST NOW AND WILL TO WESTERN MONTANA LATE THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THIS AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE APPROACHES WESTERN MONTANA THIS EVENING.
135 PM EST TUE JAN 19 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
1258 PM EST TUE JAN 19 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY TO THE CAROLINAS.
with light freezing rain or freezing drizzle possible at the northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas sites. /ISSUED 1023 AM CST TUE JAN 19 2016/ The cold front and upper system to the northwest of the area poised to impact ern OK and nw AR later today and tonight. Temperatures across Far ne Ok and nw AR will sneak above freezing for several hours this afternoon. however wet bulb effects once precipitation begins will likely bring temps back down below freezing. most precipitation across ne OK and nw AR for the duration of the event will be drizzle and freezing drizzle.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ALONG THE KEYS WERE ABLE TO REACH 63 AND 64 DEGREES AT KEY WEST AIRPORT WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S. THANKS TO THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC EXTENDING TOWARDS THE FLORIDA KEYS.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEHIND SHORT WAVE ON THE LEADING OF 850 MB WARMER AIR WILL SPREAD EAST. WITH WARMER AIR MOVING IN. TEMPS EVEN IN THE LOW CLOUD AREA IN CNTRL ND IN THE LOW 20S SO THINK IDEA OF AROUND 20 OR LOW 20S QUITE REASONBLE FOR HIGHS IN OUR AREA WEDNESDAY.
AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE OH VALLEY REGION. TEMPS ARE A FEW DEGREES WARMER COMPARED TO THE LAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS. LOW TEMPS FRI MORNING PREDOM IN THE LOWER 60S STILL LOOK TO BE ON TRACK. COURTESY OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION AROUND THE RIDGE CONTINUED A LIGHT NE FLOW OVER THE REGION. AS TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS RELAXES SOMEWHAT. UPPER RIDGING OTHERWISE WAS IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES/DESERT SW AND OFF OF THE EAST COAST.
731 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AND PROVIDE THE REGION WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND CLEARING SKIES.
952 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
1047 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015 HIGH PRESSURE IN VICINITY OVERNIGHT.
1048 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND FRIDAY AND PROVIDE OUR REGION WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER. LINGERING BROAD/WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING TONIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO A ZONAL FLOW ON FRIDAY. EXPECT LOWS OVERNIGHT TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S ACROSS THE COOLEST INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER/NORTH COUNTRY TO THE LOWER AND MID 50S ELSEWHERE. SOME MODEST WARMING OF OUR AIRMASS SHOULD THEN ALLOW HIGHS TO RECOVER BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S ACROSS THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE AREA. AND THE HIGHEST TERRAIN EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO MAY STILL STRUGGLE TO BREAK OUT OF THE 60S. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST WHILE A WEAK LOW OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
AN EXTENSIVE CIRRUS SHIELD WILL CONTINUE TO SPILL S INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL SHIFT E INTO THE MIDWEST/SRN PLAINS.
A WEAK EASTERLY WAVE/INVERTED TROUGH WILL SHIFT WESTWARD OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA THROUGH TONIGHT.
STARTING IN THE EAST WHERE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS ARE THE LOWEST AND THEN THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE CWA TOWARDS MORNING. 500 MB SHORT WAVES CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER RIDGE IN SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO. UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO NORTH DAKOTA THIS WEEKEND.
THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVERHEAD OF SE TEXAS WILL KEEP LIGHT WINDS OVERHEAD. ONSHORE WINDS WILL THEN DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA AS THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE DRIFTS TO THE EAST AND AS A SEA AND BAY BREEZE DEVELOP AND MOVE INLAND. AIR MASS IS NOT QUITE AS DRY AS LIGHT NIGHT AND TEMPS ARE 4 TO 6 DEGREES WARMER.
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST AND A DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE. ANOTHER VERY PLEASANT DAY ONGOING WITH THE FORECAST AREA UNDER HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WITH AN EXTREMELY DRY NORTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE. BETWEEN SOUTHWEST CONUS HIGH AND EAST COAST TROFFING. WILL BEGIN TO SEE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS ASSOCIATED RIDGING OVER THE AREA SHIFTS TO THE EAST. MODELS SUGGESTING RESULT WILL BE A POSITIVELY TILTED MID/UPPER TROF FROM THE NORTHEAST CONUS. MODELS FURTHER TRANSITION AFOREMENTIONED TROF INTO AN ANTICYCLONE BY MID WEEK OVER EAST TEXAS. LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION FROM THE MIDWEST. ONSHORE FLOW WILL RETURN OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST.
959 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015 AVIATION SECTIONS UPDATED HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
729 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY WILL DRIFT EAST FRIDAY.
EXPECT CIRRUS TO CONTINUE TO SPILL SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH SHIFTING E INTO THE MIDWEST/SRN PLAINS. THE FOUR STATE AREA CONTINUED UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE ON THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE MOVING INTO THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND SOUTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES. THIS WILL KEEP THE HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES AND INTO THE REMAINING ZONES DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AND HELPING WITH THE RAIN CHANCES FOR THE START TO THE WEEKEND.
942 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY WILL DRIFT EAST FRIDAY.
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS LOW-LEVEL JET INTENSIFIES AHEAD OF INCOMING COLD FRONT. COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FORECAST AT 07Z. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL EDGE INTO THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE PANHANDLES OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. A BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES BY THE WEEKEND. TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE ERIKA WILL BE ROUNDING THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
22Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD WEAK TROUGH OVER EASTERN MT INTO NORTHWEST SD/NORTHEAST WY. THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS HAS UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WITH UPPER RIDGE REBUILDING ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AREA. LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN NEBRASKA WITH INVERTED TROF THROUGH THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER 50S TO MID 60S. THERMAL RIDGE WILL SHIFT INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS.
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PROMOTE MOSTLY CLEAR AND CALM CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE VALLEY. AND SOME ADDITIONAL MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER RETURNS ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN. BUT SHOULD BE A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT. CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 65 87 68 86 / 0 10 10 30 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 63 85 67 85 / 0 10 10 30 OAK RIDGE, TN 63 85 66 85 / 0 10 10 30 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 59 83 60 84 / 10 10 10 20.
1257 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S. BUILDING RIDGES OVER THE PLAINS AND EAST COAST SHOULD CAUSE THIS SYSTEM TO WEAKEN AND MOVE SLOWLY SE ACROSS THE MIDWEST THIS WEEKEND. RATHER DIFFUSE WARM FRONT AND ACCOMPANYING H85 THETA-E ADVECTION EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD NW PORTION OF CWA FRIDAY NIGHT PSBLY RESULTING IN SCT SHOWERS LATE.
THE COLD FRONT SLOWED CONSIDERABLY THROUGH THE LATE AFTN/EVENING. COLD FRONT CURRENTLY ACROSS NORTHWEST KANSAS WILL MOVE TOWARD THE AREA.
634 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015 UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE CWA THIS EVENING. MEANWHILE RIDGING REDEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN ROCKIES. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM/TROUGH PUSHING EAST ACROSS THE AREA WILL BE THE AREA TO FOCUS ON. TOMORROW THE RIDGE BEGINS TO EXPAND ACROSS THE AREA. SOUTH FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL BRING WARM/DRY AIR FROM NORTHERN NEW MEXICO AND SOUTHERN COLORADO TO WESTERN NEBRASKA.
808 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015 HIGH PRESSURE IN VICINITY OVERNIGHT.
1215 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015 HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
/ISSUED 248 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015/ HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS LOCATED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. THE HIGH WILL GRADUALLY MOVE NORTHEAST TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL NUDGE INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY. THE COMBINATION OF THE SOUTHERLY WINDS AND THE UPPER RIDGE WILL PRODUCE WARMER HIGHS ACROSS THE CWA FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AN UPPER TROF WILL PUSH IN FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT AS AN EASTERLY TROPICAL WAVE MOVES INTO NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI. THE COMBINATION WILL PRODUCE A BROAD UPPER TROF OVER THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO THE LOWER 90S. EXPECT CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DIMINISH AS DECENT SUBSIDENCE WILL OCCUR OVER THE AREA AS ERIKA MOVES NORTHWARD ALONG THE EAST SIDE OF FLORIDA WITH ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LOW MOVING OVER TEXAS.
806 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015 WARMER WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS.
THE FOUR STATE AREA CONTINUED UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE ON THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE MOVING INTO THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND SOUTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES. THIS WILL KEEP THE HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES AND INTO THE REMAINING ZONES DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AND HELPING WITH THE RAIN CHANCES FOR THE START TO THE WEEKEND. AN EXTENSIVE CIRRUS SHIELD WILL CONTINUE TO SPILL S INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL SHIFT E INTO THE MIDWEST/SRN PLAINS.
500 MB SHORT WAVES CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER RIDGE IN SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO. UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO NORTH DAKOTA THIS WEEKEND.
807 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S. BUILDING RIDGES OVER THE PLAINS AND EAST COAST SHOULD CAUSE THIS SYSTEM TO WEAKEN AND MOVE SLOWLY SE ACROSS THE MIDWEST THIS WEEKEND. RATHER DIFFUSE WARM FRONT AND ACCOMPANYING H85 THETA-E ADVECTION EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD NW PORTION OF CWA FRIDAY NIGHT PSBLY RESULTING IN SCT SHOWERS LATE.
640 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015 HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE AREA.
1114 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015 THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
THERE ARE SOME HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
SLIGHT COOLING IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE OVER CALIFORNIA WEAKENS.
918 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015 00Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS THE THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OVER THE EASTERN CONUS IS STILL DOMINATED BY A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TO THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THIS TROUGH AXIS IS STILL OFF TO OUR NORTHWEST AND WEST AND SEPARATES A REGION OF VERY DRY MID/UPPER LEVEL AIR OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. FROM A MOIST UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT WITHIN THE SOUTHERN STREAM FLOW ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE TROUGH. AS THIS HIGH BUILDS SOUTHWARD A BIT ON FRIDAY. OUR FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS WILL BECOME A BIT MORE DEFINED FROM THE SOUTHEAST.
SURFACE ANALYSIS AT 19Z SHOWED LOW PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR KMCK. A WARM FRONT CURVED S/SE FROM THE LOW DOWN INTO CNTRL KS. WHILE A COLD FRONT WAS BECOMING BETTER DEFINED FROM WRN NE INTO WRN KS. PCPN CHANCES WILL DECREASE FROM W TO E LATER TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE CENTER AND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR FRIDAY NIGHT. PATTERN AT THE START OF THIS SHOULD HAVE A 500 MB RIDGE EXTENDING FROM NM TO WI AND A FAIRLY DEEP TROUGH FROM WRN CANADA DOWN INTO CNTRL CA. COLD FRONT NOW IN WESTERN NEBRASKA WILL MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEBRASKA.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A WARMING AND DRYING TREND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. MOST OF THESE EXPECTED TO INITIATE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
830 PM PDT THU AUG 27 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY.
1005 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015 HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
747 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015 THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
WITH DEVELOPMENT BEING AUGMENTED BY APPROACH OF COLD FRONT. COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT TWO HOURS AT KGUY AND KDHT. EXPECT GENERAL DECREASE IN THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF COLD FRONT DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. NORTH SURFACE WINDS WITH PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT WILL TREND TO NORTHEAST AND EAST BY FRIDAY EVENING. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS LOW-LEVEL JET INTENSIFIES AHEAD OF INCOMING COLD FRONT. COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FORECAST AT 07Z. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL EDGE INTO THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE PANHANDLES OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. A BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES BY THE WEEKEND. TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE ERIKA WILL BE ROUNDING THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
HOT AGAIN FRIDAY WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHWEST.
THIS CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH A SECONDARY COLD FRONT AS SOME PRESSURE RISES HAVE BEEN NOTED BEHIND IT. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BEHIND THE EXITING TROUGH WILL BRING DRIER AIR TO THE AREA TONIGHT. THEN ONLY A TAD FOR THE HIGH COUNTY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. FRIDAY'S HIGHS LOOK TO BE 1-2 C WARMER THAN THIS AFTERNOON'S.
933 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AND PROVIDE THE REGION WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND CLEARING SKIES.
852 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015 FOCUSED GREATEST POPS OVER THE NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL PLAINS REMAINDER OF TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTH INTO THE AREA. THE TROUGH EJECTING INTO THE CENTRAL U.
739 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BEHIND THE EXITING TROUGH WILL BRING DRIER AIR TO THE AREA TONIGHT. THEN ONLY A TAD FOR THE HIGH COUNTY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. FRIDAY'S HIGHS LOOK TO BE 1-2 C WARMER THAN THIS AFTERNOON'S.
ALONG WITH A WELL DEFINED RIDGE VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT. WITH THE HIGH SLIPPING EAST WE SHOULD SEE LARGER RIDGE VALLEY DIFFERENCES FOR MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SIGNIFICANTLY DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS WITH REGARD TO A SHORT WAVE ROUNDING A WESTERN CONUS RIDGE AND MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND OHIO VALLEY.
859 PM PDT THU AUG 27 2015 A cold front will approach the region tonight through Friday night.
1155 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015 AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL FINALLY LIFT OUT OT THE EAST OF THE REGION BY FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN AND SLOWLY DRIFT OFF THE EAST COAST OVER THE WEEKEND. MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL MOVE INTO REGION FOR THE WEEKEND. TO THE U50S IN URBAN AREAS OF THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. TO THE L80S ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. SOME 5-8 DEG WARMER THAN TODAY. RESULTING IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND THE RETURN OF WARMER.
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ARE PUSHING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED EXTENSIONS OF THE STORMS TOWARDS THE LOWER KEYS AT THIS HOUR.
755 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AND PROVIDE THE REGION WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND CLEARING SKIES.
1147 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP QUIET WEATHER THROUGH THE NIGHT. WEATHER WILL REMAIN QUIET ACROSS THE REGION AS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES SLOWLY MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AND LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
721 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015 WARMER WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS.
746 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.
840 PM MST THU AUG 27 2015 HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION IS BEGINNING TO BRING IN SOME DRIER CONDITIONS FROM THE WEST. WHICH IS NORMALLY UNFAVORABLE FOR MONSOON STORMS TO MOVE INTO THE LOWER DESERTS. THERE IS JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED STORM OVER THE LOWER DESERTS THROUGH THE REST OF THIS EVENING. THE HIGH RES MODELS PICKED UP ON THAT AND HAVE BEEN VERY CONSISTENT. AS THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH BETTER PLACES ITSELF SOUTH OF THE BORDER AND SLIGHTLY MORE WEST.
AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE OH VALLEY REGION. TEMPS ARE A FEW DEGREES WARMER COMPARED TO THE LAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS. LOW TEMPS FRI MORNING PREDOM IN THE LOWER 60S STILL LOOK TO BE ON TRACK. WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NE CONTINUING TO IMPACT THE WX ACROSS THE REGION.
1059 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP QUIET WEATHER THROUGH THE NIGHT. WEATHER WILL REMAIN QUIET ACROSS THE REGION AS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES SLOWLY MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AND LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
946 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015 AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL FINALLY LIFT OUT OT THE EAST OF THE REGION BY FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN AND SLOWLY DRIFT OFF THE EAST COAST OVER THE WEEKEND. MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL MOVE INTO REGION FOR THE WEEKEND. TO THE U50S IN URBAN AREAS OF THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. TO THE L80S ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. SOME 5-8 DEG WARMER THAN TODAY. RESULTING IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND THE RETURN OF WARMER.
A GRADUAL CHANGE IN THE NEAR SURFACE AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. EAST-NE LOW LEVEL FLOW A RESULT OF THIS HIGH AND A LINGERING TROUGH LOCATED JUST OFF THE NC COAST WILL FILTER DRIER AIR INTO MOST OF CENTRAL NC OVERNIGHT. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE FAR SE COUNTIES WHERE THE LOW LEVEL FETCH ORIGINATES OVER THE ATLANTIC. OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT. ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EAST WHERE MON TEMPS WILL AVERAGE 3-5 DEGREES COOLER. MIN TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 60S WITH UPPER 60S OVER THE FAR SE. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL START TO BUILD TOWARD THE EAST COAST.
Otherwise VFR conditions will prevail ahead of a slow moving cold front which will focus additional convection tomorrow evening. Could see some late night showers and storms across portions of northeast Oklahoma again tonight as a cold front advances into central Kansas.
AIR MASS IS NOT QUITE AS DRY AS LIGHT NIGHT AND TEMPS ARE 4 TO 6 DEGREES WARMER.