Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
140 PM PDT TUE AUG 30 2016 High pressure will bring warm weather and minimal coastal cloud coverage through Wednesday. A trough of low pressure will move into the West Coast for the entire holiday weekend. High pressure aloft will peak today, making today the warmest day this week. Temperatures will top out in the 90s in the southern valleys, over 100 in much of the Inland Empire, and over 110 in portions of the lower desert. Coastal areas will stay cooler, in the 70s and 80s, due to the moderating marine layer influence. The high pressure ridge will slowly give way to a fairly robust trough over the Pacific Northwest, beginning a cooling and drying trend for the latter half of the week, through the holiday weekend.
356 PM CDT TUE AUG 30 2016 A south to southwest flow aloft between an upper low over Colorado and an upper ridge over the southeast U.
An upper ridge across much of the interior southeast states and extending into the central plains weakens and retreats westward as a longwave trof amplifies over much of the eastern states. Lows tonight will range from the lower 70s inland to the mid/upper 70s near the coast.
156 PM EDT Tue Aug 30 2016 Fair and seasonable late summer weather is expected today as high pressure drifts atop and east of the area.
1108 AM MDT TUE AUG 30 2016 Upper ridging continues across the High Plains today as the main flow persists across Canada. however with the ridge in place there is extremely weak shear. Upper ridging will increase in amplitude while remaining stationary across the region as an upper trough moves into the West Coast.
RAP/GFS forecast soundings show mixing up to 850mb which supports highs in the lower- mid 90s once again today. Dewpoints will rise back up into the lower- mid 70s later today as moisture has been added to the atmosphere by the rain that fell from the MCS that moved through the area yesterday. This is an area of low level moisture convergence on the nose of the low level jet.
SHORT TERM (Tonight through Thursday Night): A persistent ridge of strong high pressure is sitting across the CONUS. the high pressure's placement lends itself to a much better situation for Deep South Texas and the RGV. A upper level disturbance/weakly inverted trough will begin pushing west to north west across the Gulf late tonight and eventually over the coast and farther inland through the day on Thursday.
1248 PM CDT WED JUL 20 2016 Impressive anticyclonic motion is evident on this mornings water vapor loop as upper-level ridging holds strong across the central CONUS.
Models show a 500mb ridge, over the central US, migrating slowly to the east into the weekend. The Bermuda high is not progged to become too strong, but should be enough to cause the low level wind to have a more southerly component. however, even if the do, there should be enough of an easterly component in the low level wind to allow to east coast breeze to become more dominate. The wind will continue to be easterly, with high pressure transitioning a bit more to the east, giving the wind somewhat of a southerly component by the end of the weekend.
Surface dewpoints in the upper 70s to the lower 80s are observed across these areas given strong evapotranspiration.
Surface analysis places a weak back door cold front over East/Southeast Missouri and Western Kentucky early this morning. A ridge of high pressure centered over the Southern Plains and portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley combined with high surface dewpoints will result in another very hot and humid day across much of the Mid-South as temperatures rise again into the middle to upper 90s.
Forecast area remains under a southwest flow with an upper level trough off the coast and a ridge of high pressure to the east. This will allow the ridge to build back into the Pacific northwest today and overnight.
Heat indexes will easily rise into the low 100s resulting in very dangerous conditions.
326 PM CDT WED JUL 20 2016 Upper high of near 600dm centered over central OK keeping the hot temperatures in place across north TX with current temps in the mid to upper 90s and heat index values generally around 100-104. but unlike yesterday where a weak disturbance rotated around the upper high to cause isolated is stronger with an upper trof than the GFS thunderstorms across north TX.
The large high pressure area aloft over the central United States flattens somewhat through the end of the week and retrogrades back over the southwest as a couple of short wave troughs lift out of the southwest and track up the back side of the ridge and a larger upper trough tracks through the northwest U.
At the surface, we sit between a ridge over the Lower Mississippi Valley, and the far western reaches of a west-central Atlantic ridge.
Hot temperatures will be the weather highlight as high pressure expands across the Southwest.
The consensus of the 12 UTC CAM suite is for potential isolated to scattered convective initiation between 22-00 UTC along a weak cold front/density gradient across eastern Montana this morning that will propagate to between US Highways 83 and 85 early this evening.
250 PM EDT WED JUL 20 2016 High pressure in control with dry and stable air.
245 PM EDT WED JUL 20 2016 High pressure will remain in control of our weather through Thursday night.
214 PM CDT WED JUL 20 2016 Another day of above normal temperatures is expected today with a broad upper ridge centered over the southcentral conus. Not expecting much in the way of storms and rain across the area today except maybe an isolated storm or two across the higher terrain. Temperatures may be a degree or two warmer tomorrow than today as 850 mb temps warm slightly; otherwise, not much change is expected from today.
After a few days where the heat index actually felt a little cooler than the actual temperature, a little better low level moisture is allowing heat index values to creep up a degree or two.
330 PM EDT WED JUL 20 2016 Mainly dry conditions will persist into Thursday morning before a warm front brings low chances for showers and storms into the forecast Thursday afternoon and evening across northern Indiana and southern Michigan.
This will favor the high country for better precipitation chances. Convection will slowly end over the high country late tonight.
The far NW will be first to feel cooler/drier air moving in behind boundary late tonight. With high pressure moving in anticipating a break in the stormy weather and will keep forecast dry.
606 PM EDT WED JUL 20 2016 High pressure will move to the southeast of the Maine and New Hampshire tonight. A warm front will approach the southwest Thursday night ushering in much warmer and humid air.
343 PM CDT WED JUL 20 2016 The high pressure ridge over the middle U.
236 PM CDT WED JUL 20 2016 Tonight through Thursday, a broad upper level ridge will continue across the southern and central plains. Afternoon dewpoints will be in the lower to mid 70s across northeast and east central KS.
The upper ridge of high pressure should remain entrenched over much of the southeast through the midwest U.
Fog looks to be have a low probability of occurrence as well for tonight with the highest.
Those have ranged from the low 70s to lower 80s making for heat indices up to 110 degrees at some locations in Minnesota. The cold front will begin to sink south into central Minnesota Thursday afternoon. One, the thermal ridge aloft just preceding the front will be directly overhead tomorrow afternoon during peak heating. 925 mb temps of +30C would normally support highs in the lower 100s, which is what occurred the last time we hit 100+ in 2012. Dew points will drop behind the front while the thermal ridge remains in place, so it is conceivable temperatures will actually warm a bit more behind it across west central to northeast Minnesota, similar to what the GFS is showing with its 103 degree temp at St.
127 PM MDT WED JUL 20 2016 Large scale mid-upper level ridging continues to dominated the pattern across the US, with monsoonal flow (apparent on WV imagery) rotating around the western edge of the ridge.
Strong 599 dm upper anticyclone centered over western Oklahoma at midday.
345 PM EDT WED JUL 20 2016 High pressure will move to the southeast of the Maine and New Hampshire tonight. A warm front will approach the southwest Thursday night ushering in much warmer and humid air.
1222 PM CDT WED JUL 20 2016 18Z TAF Cycle An upper high will allow for VFR conditions at all three TAF sites through 18Z Thursday.
The radar however is much cooler tonight with a strong downturn in convection after midnight with out a strong trigger. There also appears to be some channelized vorticity riding the edge of the moisture plume in southeast Utah that could also focus some storms across the high plateaus into the northern mountains this afternoon. Missed the high temperature forecast by nearly 10 degrees yesterday due to cloud cover and early morning rainfall.
Warm temperatures will return across the area, though will be slightly cooler than those experienced today.
Northern California remains under dry southwest flow aloft between an upper low off the Pacific Northwest coast and strong high pressure over the central US. With less of a marine influence today, temperatures are running a few degrees warmer than 24 hours ago and are expected to peak in the lower 90s across the Valley. These high temperatures are slightly cooler than normal for this time of year. The upper low ejects north and east later this week, with high pressure building into Northern CA from the south.
Tomorrow low-level thicknesses increase, and with more sunshine expected, we should see high temperatures go more into the low to mid 90s. Dewpoints solidly in the low to mid 70s along and west of the I-65 corridor, this should mean heat indices jumping to near 105 in some spots.
/Tonight/ The warm front is currently near an Estherville to Cedar Rapids line.
Mid/upper level high pressure system will meander across N TX and the southern plains resulting in a deep easterly flow across S TX. However, moisture is expected to increase in the lowest levels.
Another batch of showers/isolated t-storms north of I-80 is expected to move around the NE side of the upper level ridge and into parts of central IL early this evening, before weakening. Many of the short range models are in agreement that as the upper ridge continues to build over our area tonight, the potential for convection will be quite minimal. The last time central and southeast IL had heat index values this high was June 29-July 1, 2012. Main forecast focus remains with the high heat and humidity through this weekend, as strong 598 dm 500 mb subtropical high over OK stays near IL where 500 mb heights 594 dm or higher.
1215 PM CDT WED JUL 20 2016 Less convective activity is expected today as a strong upper level ridge suppresses overall instability.
/ISSUED 235 AM CDT WED JUL 20 2016/ A stagnant and quiet weather pattern is expected the rest of this week into the weekend, as a broad ridge of high pressure remains centered over the south-central CONUS. The resulting subsidence from the strengthening upper high should result in temperatures pushing the century mark for the first time this summer across much of the area. Medium range models are not in complete agreement on how far west the upper high moves or how much it weakens over our area.
154 PM EDT WED JUL 20 2016 An upper-level trough over the East Coast will shift farther east tonight as a weakening cold front remains over the region through Thursday. however with the weakening cold front stretched across the eastern Midlands and central CSRA development is currently limited. Temperatures overnight will again be in the lower to middle 70s. The region will remain in the northerly 500 mb flow between the upper ridge over the plains and the departing trough off the East Coast. The upper ridge is forecast to build eastward into the forecast area over the weekend as 850 mb temperatures warm to around +23 C. Forecast instability is moderate both Sat/Sun but will be fighting the subsidence from the upper ridge. The main forcing for thunderstorms will likely be strong heating and convergence into a lee-side trough.
High pressure will remain in control of our weather through Thursday night.
146 PM EDT WED JUL 20 2016 Aviation High pressure will move east today with temperatures and humidity increasing into the weekend.
428 PM EDT WED JUL 20 2016 High pressure builds over the region through tonight then remains in place through the weekend. Latest surface analysis depicts weak high pressure over central VA with a weak, broad coastal trough along the NC/VA coast. Some low stratus is possible early Thursday morning along the lower Bay with some patchy fog inland.
103 PM PDT WED JUL 20 2016 Dry conditions will continue with temperatures gradually trending warmer through the week, reaching above normal over the weekend. A trough of low pressure remains along the Pacific Northwest coast while a strong ridge of high pressure resides over much of the central and southern U.
/Issued 300 PM CDT WED JUL 20 2016/ Water vapor imagery shows 597 dam ridge dominating over the Southern Plains and slightly more amplified than yesterday. An upper trough is spinning off the coast in the Pac NW with upper flow extending into the far Northern Plains where more active weather is expected. Thursday looks to be even warmer with many areas expected to reach 100. Weak lee troughing will keep southerly winds in the forecast for much of the period.
Dewpoints will remain the highest over the eastern CWA where conditions will feel more uncomfortable. Will continue will the excessive heat warning, but will soon have to re-evaluate possible headlines changes for Thursday as slightly cooler air works into the northern CWA. As previously mentioned, slightly cooler air looks to work into the area on Thursday in the wake of the passing frontal boundary.
This may be due in part to slightly warmer air just above 700mb as analyzed in morning upper air observations. High pressure remains over the region with generally light winds and seas, and good boating conditions.
This latter activity associated with disturbances rotating about the periphery of south plains anticyclone. This as high pressure remains ridging across the southeast CONUS and adjacent gulf waters.
Hot temperatures will be the weather highlight for the upcoming week as high pressure expands across the Southwest.
233 PM EDT WED JUL 20 2016 The potential for thunderstorms will exist in a hot and humid summertime air mass ahead of a cold front this afternoon. This cold front will drop across the area late today, bringing drier weather to the in its wake. The cold front will continue to pass south of the area by this evening and high pressure will begin to build over the region. Overnight temperature forecast of the lower 70s inland to the middle 70s at the beaches still holds. High pressure will build by Thursday and will slowly give way to a developing Piedmont trough.
257 PM CDT WED JUL 20 2016 Large mid-upper high will continue to dominate the south-central CONUS during the period, while subtropical moisture and embedded vort lobes circulate around its periphery.
1243 PM CDT WED JUL 20 2016 High pressure continues across the area today. Today Through Thursday Night With the center of the upper level high pressure just to the west of the state.
354 PM CDT WED JUL 20 2016 Warm weather will continue with upper ridge solidly over the Plains. The high dewpoints will keep the actual temperature a little lower than we would expect under this strong of a ridge, but that will still keep the heat index values up to advisory criteria.
131 PM EDT WED JUL 20 2016 High pressure will build south of the region through Thursday.
/issued 354 PM CDT WED JUL 20 2016/ Warm weather will continue with upper ridge solidly over the Plains. The high dewpoints will keep the actual temperature a little lower than we would expect under this strong of a ridge, but that will still keep the heat index values up to advisory criteria.
232 PM EDT WED JUL 20 2016 An upper-level trough over the East Coast will shift farther east tonight as a weakening cold front remains over the region through Thursday. however with the weakening cold front stretched across the eastern Midlands and central CSRA development is currently limited. Temperatures overnight will again be in the lower to middle 70s. An upper trough along the East Coast will push further east on Thursday as a massive upper ridge expands over the center of the country. The diffuse frontal boundary will be south of the region Thursday with high pressure ridging into the area at the surface.
Lapse rates are becoming increasingly steep and combined with dew points in the low 70s area-wide, water loaded downdrafts may ensue, leading to damaging wind gusts with any of these storms that develop. Due to the low certainty of even this occurring, will cover this with only VCTS for now and amend as necessary.
138 PM EDT WED JUL 20 2016 Humidity will gradually increase today as high pressure moves away from the area and southerly winds develop.
Will continue to monitor radar trends but will keep current slight chance pops after sunset with lack of strong short wave trough. Temperatures overnight will again be in the lower to middle 70s. An upper trough along the East Coast will push further east on Thursday as a massive upper ridge expands over the center of the country. The diffuse frontal boundary will be south of the region Thursday with high pressure ridging into the area at the surface.
307 PM MDT WED JUL 20 2016 Tonight the upper level ridge wl be centered over the south central KS border, and wl shift a little westward on Thu. High temps on Thu should generally be around average in the high valleys with reading in the 80s, and above average temps acrs the sern plains, with readings in the 90's to lower 100's.
GOES Water Vapor satellite imagery/RAP 500mb analysis showing an expansive ridge of high pressure over the central conus with monsoonal plume of moisture pushing into the region. This seems to be firing ahead of a weaker mid-level trough moving across eastern SD/NE. Models continue to show increasing 850mb moisture transport through tonight ahead of low pressure over the Northern Plains. Otherwise, looks like a fairly uncomfortable night ahead as lows only dip into the lower/middle 70s with dew points in the 70s as well.
314 PM CDT WED JUL 20 2016 Strong upper level ridge of high pressure will remain in control through the rest of the week, with hot and humid conditions persisting.
1131 AM MDT WED JUL 20 2016 Water vapor shows upper ridge over the nrn plains/upper midwest. broad low pressure covers the nrn plains. very hot conditions expected as thermal ridge peaks over wrn SD. N/NE boundary layer flow behind the cdfnt will usher slightly cooler air through the cwfa.
Highs this afternoon will again top out in the lower to middle 90s with heat index values in the 98 to 108 range.
Tonight Through Thursday Night A large area of high pressure aloft continues to be centered over Oklahoma. No movement of this high is noted in the models through Thursday.
The hottest temperatures of 100 plus still look destined for our southwest, specifically the Chamberlain area, while warming in the east brings everybody up at least into the lower 90s, or a few degrees above today in most places.
Today Through Thursday Night With the center of the upper level high pressure just to the west of the state.
Water vapor imagery and GOES High Density Winds clearly show the center of the upper ridge over the Southern Plains. The ridge will ever so slowly build west over the next seven days.
/issued 423 AM EDT WED JUL 20 2016/ Today-Tonight: Overall Florida peninsula will be in the growing weakness between the large upper level ridge stretching from the western Atlantic into the Central US. Models have trended drier for today as ridging has been more pronounced and the trough not quite as deep yet.
/Issued 217 AM CDT WED JUL 20 2016/ Strong upper high, currently located over the central U.
Otherwise a weak cool front should slip south across the CWA tonight with temperatures a little cooler on Thursday.
Tonight and Thursday The latest Rap analysis and satellite/radar imagery show a strong mid-level sub-tropical ridge building north into the north-central US early this afternoon. A cold front is positioned over the western Dakotas into south-central Canada. To complicate matters further, a more potent cold front will be pushing into northwest WI very late in the afternoon. Thursday Night Through Wednesday The upper level high pressure block over the U. Conditions will remain hot and humid until the upper level ridge breaks down and the best chance for severe thunderstorms for our region will be Thursday night.
148 PM EDT WED JUL 20 2016 High pressure builds over the area today, then passes offshore Thursday.
258 PM EDT Wed Jul 20 2016 High pressure will build southeast over the area through tonight before drifting offshore through Thursday.
1117 AM PDT Wed Jul 20 2016 High pressure will build over the Inland today into Thursday bringing mostly clear skies and light winds.
12Z upper-air analysis shows the center of the high pressure ridge remains near the central Kansas/Oklahoma border with only a slight decrease in heights compared to the 00Z data. Temperatures are about the same as 24 hours ago across the Rolling Plains while the Caprock is anywhere from 2 to 4 degrees warmer than yesterday. Models have little change in the surface conditions and keep the ridge pretty much in the same place over the next 24 hours. Went with persistence/this morning's low temperatures for tomorrow morning due to little change in the atmosphere and highs a degree warmer than blended guidance since this seems to be performing the best over the last week. Jordan Stagnant high pressure over the southern Great Plains will relinquish control through the weekend as it flattens and migrates into the Desert Southwest.
Broad upper ridge of high pressure is control of much of the nation and bringing high heat indexes to the Plains today. The upper ridge will retrograde a bit into the area Thursday allowing for mainly sunny conditions. Hot temperatures are not expected as the disturbance and associated cold front will have pushed that airmass east.
512 PM CDT WED JUL 20 2016 An upper high of near 600dm centered over central Oklahoma is keeping the hot weather in place across North and Central Texas with current temperatures in the mid to upper 90s and heat index values generally around 100-104. but unlike yesterday where a weak disturbance rotated around the upper high to cause isolated thunderstorms.
The upper-level ridge anchored across the southern plains is a key factor in our weather today and will be throughout the week. The debris cirrus and outflow boundaries from the decaying MCS in IL will round the eastern edge of the ridge and into our area today. The building high pressure will allow for temps to warm into mid 90s as well. Heat index values however will make it feel like it is even warmer around 100 degrees. With high pressure dominating area weather, showers/storms are too unlikely to include in the TAFs at this time--but not impossible.
The upper ridge centered over Oklahoma is expected to intensify slightly with thickness values and temperatures aloft warming a ever so slightly.
410 PM CDT WED JUL 20 2016 Elevated convection continues to bubble across west central Wisconsin within the broad synoptic scale warm frontal zone this afternoon.
This is likely due to the grow- ing influence of the ridge over the Southern Plains. However that being said, models are hinting at another round of SHRA/TSRAs for tomorrow afternoon/evening with the approach/passage of a distur- bance under this ridge from the east. Due to the large ridge axis sitting off to the north, deeper moisture will remain south of I-10 today increasing the chance for showers and thunderstorms to about 30% for this region.