Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Ridging and high pressure will shift east tonight, resulting in clear skies and light winds. Mostly sunny skies will prevail today with light northeast to east winds and high temperatures in the lower 70s. Ridging and high pressure will shift east tonight, resulting in clear skies, light winds and overnight low temperatures mainly in the 50s.
After freezing temps this morning, readings were climbing into the middle to upper 30s. The synoptic pattern will remain essentially unchanged tonight and tomorrow, as the northeastern CONUS mid/upper-level cyclone lifts slowly northward into southern Quebec while the subtropical ridge continues to build esewd into the Florida Straits. It appears that this layer of clouds should remain thin/scattered and we will continue to forecast lows in the lower/mid 20s for rural areas. Sunny skies and light/variable winds are anticipated Monday, with temperatures 3-5 degrees warmer for most locations based on a similar increase in 850 mb temps.
Temperatures are currently in the upper 20s to the lower 30s and will drop into the lower to upper 20s for morning lows. An upper level ridge is building across the plains early this morning and will slowly spread east and into the area by Monday.
Subjective 06z surface analysis shows high pressure centered along the I35 corridor and beginning to edge east with time. Lee side troughing is taking over the Northern Plains with a shield of low level stratus developing in warm air advection across North Dakota. Deep low pressure at H850 just south of Hudson Bay Canada with -10 to -20C airmass dropping into the eastern Great Lakes. with some clouds and a warmer airmass but little mixing. highs will warm into the mid to upper 30s north and the lower to mid 40s across the south.
Large scale pattern features a broad mid tropospheric ridge extending from Mexico up into Alberta and Saskatchewan. Troughs were located over the Great Lakes region and also just off the west coast. Main energy with the feature to the west is in the southern part of the trough, and that will push into the Four Corners region by Monday evening. Today, cool high pressure at the surface should move off to the east while a trough of low pressure develops over the western High Plains. Southerly flow will increase across the area through Monday, bringing in warmer air and some increase in moisture. Additional warming is likely Monday with highs probably at least 2 to 6 degrees F warmer.
330 AM PST Sun Nov 20 2016 A weather system is expected to impact the area over the next couple of days with cooler temperatures and precipitation chances. Once the cold front pushes completely through, precipitation may have a better chance of reaching a majority of the district. In addition to the rain and snow, a good area of instability will exist with the cold air behind the cold front. By Monday night, the storm will have pushed east and allowing a weak ridge to move into the area.
High pressure will keep conditions dry across the area through the start of the work week. The next chance for rain will come mid week as a low pressure system moves through the Great Lakes. Short term model guidance suggests only a slow retreat to the lower cloud cover over the northeast zones today, with the potential for the far northeast zones to stay rather cloudy for most of the day. Conditions will be dry as high pressure works into the area.
638 AM EST Sun Nov 20 2016 Strong low pressure over New England will drift NE today.
The last of the stratocu will exit our east over the next few hours as the 1000-850 mb thermal trough lifts out in the wake of the upper trough. Excellent radiational cooling conditions tonight result in most temps in the low 20s.
although moist, southwest flow continues aloft, the region will remain underneath high pressure through the day.
Today-Tonight: The main upper level ridge will be overhead through the day and tonight. Aloft: A moderate amplitude ridge will be over the Plains at 12Z/Mon with a trof moving onshore in the W. alternating with ridges Wed and Fri. The 00Z EC came in about 18 hrs slower with the trof. This low will emerge into Wrn KS by 12Z/Tue and move ENE to MHK by 00Z/Wed on its way into IA/MO Wed night. but pres will already be falling out to the W with the redevelopment of the lee trof. A very weak low will emerge out of the trof and cross the Cntrl Plains Thu.
A warm front pushed through Northeast Montana last night to nudge 850mb temperatures above 0C. The West Coast trough will eject some moisture into the upper flow for continued broken mid-to-high clouds today. Warmer air mass will move into region today allowing for above normal temperatures. The ridge will move to the east tonight and Monday as mild temperatures continue. An upper trough will split as it moves inland from the Pacific taking most of its moisture and energy south of the forecast area. Expect a weak cold front and some clouds with this system on Monday followed by partial clearing Monday Night.
High pressure, centered over the Ms Valley, was bringing chilly air into Mid TN early this morning. Since the high center was still located to the west, a northwest breeze persisted. Tonight, high pressure will be centered over our area, allowing temperatures to plummet. Lows will range from 20 to 25, except teens in some of the low and outlying areas.
Corrected for end time of Small Craft Advisory on Tampa Bay Cold dry air continues to advect across west central and southwest Florida in the wake of a cold front.
Temperatures have fallen to near or below freezing in most locations, and there will still be a few hours of additional cooling before daybreak. Near or below freezing conditions will be possible once again tonight/Monday morning across portions of Southern Arkansas and North Central Louisiana.
/issued 350 AM CST Sun Nov 20 2016/ Upper ridge poised over the region is forecast to remain largely stationary through tonight, but will deamplify as deeper SW flow and improving high level moisture draw closer. An 850 mb thermal ridge initially across the OK Panhandle is progged to shift close to I-40 by midday as lee troughing redevelops southward into northeast NM.
414 AM MST Sun Nov 20 2016 The upper level ridge over the area will shift eastward today as an upper trof approaches the west coast. Dry weather is expected thru the day across southeast and south central CO, along with highs that are about 10 degrees above average in the high valleys and at least 15 degrees above average over the southeast plains. Tonight the upper trof will move over CA, and moisture ahead of this system will move into CO.
/ISSUED 419 AM CST Sun Nov 20 2016/ With clear skies and light winds overnight, low temperatures so far this morning range from the lower/mid 30s well inland to the lower/mid 50s at the coast. As of 4 AM, a few spots up north have temperatures right around freezing, and some of them might fall a degree or two below freezing before sunrise.
307 AM MST Sun Nov 20 2016 A Pacific weather system will bring unsettled and cooler conditions to the region beginning this afternoon.
Northwest winds have been more persistent in the east, where temperatures are holding stubbornly in the lower 30s. Today will be the coolest day, and guidance has trended cooler by a degree or so. Definitely tried to run with the lowest available guidance. The 00Z guidance is in agreement that an upper-level ridge will build overhead Monday into Monday night, as light southeast winds develop across the area.
Morning lows were around freezing north and in the middle/upper 30s south. Current temperatures are now in the lower 50s, but will warm to highs in the lower to middle 60s this aftn. Obs depicting a fairly significant temperature gradient ranging from the low 30s in the AEX area to the mid 40s at BPT. Surface analysis showing cold high pressure ridging across east Texas and through the mid and upper Mississippi valleys. Aloft, broad ridging envelops the mid-conus behind troffing exiting the eastern seaboard.
Warmer today with highs peaking around 6 to 18 degrees above normal as a ridge of high pressure finishes crossing the area. An upper level trough will pass eastward along the border with Colorado early in the work week with a good chance of wetting rain along and west of the central mountain chain. The most widespread precipitation is expected tonight through Monday, then precipitation coverage will decrease Monday night as Pacific cold front delivers drier air.
All reporting sites dropped to freezing or some were well below freezing. The Freeze Warning was allowed to expire earlier this morning but with another night of widespread freezing temperatures, even colder than last night, another one is in effect for tonight.
Accumulating snow is likely through Monday north of Interstate 80 and in the high terrain. While subsidence will slowly lower inversion out of the dendritic snow growth zone, some snow showers are likely to continue in the ridges with modest moisture remaining just around -10. With fresh snowpack, continued cold advection, and cloud cover, temperatures will struggle to warm into the 40s, which is about 10-15 degrees cooler than seasonal averages.
The combination of the light winds, wet soils from recent rainfall, and cold air associated with high pressure over the Four State Region, has resulted in patchy mist/BR with visibility restrictions of 3-5 statute miles, and brief fog/FG with visibilities of 1/4 to 1/2 statute miles. Freezing temperatures and the dense fog had produced freezing fog/FZFG in some locations. Temperatures have fallen to near or below freezing in most locations, and there will still be a few hours of additional cooling before daybreak. Near or below freezing conditions will be possible once again tonight/Monday morning across portions of Southern Arkansas and North Central Louisiana.
939 AM EST Sun Nov 20 2016 A trough of low pressure extending southwest into lake erie will finally weaken by monday night.
1000 AM EST Sun Nov 20 2016 Northwest winds around a large low pressure system in the Maritimes will persist through the day.
Southwest flow continues today as the Pacific trough moves inland and advances east. Models continue to show this trough splitting as it reaches the western borders of the forecast area late this morning. A cold font will move through the area Sunday evening ahead of the approaching trough keeping shower activity present over much of the area through the overnight hours. Showers will then taper off from west to east through Monday afternoon as the trough axis advances through the forecast area. Behind the axis, a transitory ridge will introduce dry, northwest flow across the forecast area.
models and ensembles indicate PW's several standard deviations above seasonal averages along the Rocky mountains and areas east into the High Plains.
/Issued 353 AM CST Mon Jan 16 2017/ Upper low pressure system is finally lifting out of the area today. Temperatures now are around 20 degrees warmer than 24 hours ago across eastern Oklahoma. and winds will shift to the west/southwest behind Pacific cold front. although the low clouds will be around a few more hours and wrap around moisture in the northeast may keep skies from clearing out completely. A blocking pattern develops by midweek.
Considered adding the southern row of counties to the headlines, but temps are already in the lower 30s there and should move above freezing by 17-18z; we'll continue with the SPS for the southern row. From I-96 northward, a mix of sleet and freezing rain will continue to progress northeast through noon. A low pressure system will track from Texas today through Michigan on Tuesday. This system will result in a wintry mix of precipitation for the region that changes to rain as some warmer air tries to move in.
641 AM EST Mon Jan 16 2017 High pressure will provide the region with dry, seasonably chilly weather today. An approaching frontal complex will bring rain Tuesday, with an initial period of freezing rain expected, especially in the morning.
917 AM EST Mon Jan 16 2017 High Pressure ridge lifting northward into the Carolinas and this is helping to lift leftover weak coastal trof just off of JAX N-NW into coastal SE GA today with a few light showers possible. Models continue to be too aggressive with sea fog forecast but some radiational fog still possible near the coast late tonight over cooler ocean waters.
Currently an upper level ridge is off the California coast and extends into the Pacific Northwest. The ridge breaks down tonight as the jet stream advances eastward from the central Pacific.
543 AM EST Mon Jan 16 2017 High pressure will move east today as low pressure tracks north of the region. A weak cold front will then cross the state tonight. High pressure is expected to build back across the region on Tuesday.
Some patchy fog will be possible through roughly 15Z and have kept a tempo group for this and also maintained a mention of some light freezing drizzle at GAG/WWR next few hours. Will see a very weak surface front move through tonight, which will take a few degrees off of highs for Tuesday outside of northern Oklahoma where they will be a few degrees warmer, aiding in melting the ice. Another closed low currently taking shape over northern Mexico will eject a piece of energy northeast toward the Southern Plains by late Tuesday. Otherwise, should see much warmer temperatures across the area by the middle and continuing into the latter part of the week.
636 AM EST Mon Jan 16 2017 Weak high pressure remains over the local area through tonight. A warm front lifts north through the area Tuesday morning.
812 AM EST Mon Jan 16 2017 A warm front will bring warmer temperatures today, with increasing rain chances tonight and Tuesday. Clouds will be on the increase today ahead of a warm front approaching from the southwest. Latest model guidance suggests widely scattered showers may develop starting as early as mid- afternoon, however, most locations are not likely to see rain develop until later tonight as the warm front begins to cross the forecast area.
The main hazardous weather concerns in the short term period are freezing precipitation and snow amounts. Snow reports have been scant to non- existent tonight with precipitation mainly being observed as freezing rain or freezing drizzle this evening into the small hours. While a slight reprieve is occurring over south central NEB presently, freezing rain/drizzle has been mainly occurring elsewhere. Precipitation type is expected to transition across southwest NEB into north central NEB from freezing precipitation to a wintry mix to snow (freezing rain or freezing drizzle to snow in morning). Wherein freezing rain is anticipated to be a threat through the early morning.
402 AM CST Mon Jan 16 2017 At 3 AM, an area of weak of low pressure was located over central Oklahoma with a weak warm front extending SE from the low across southern Arkansas.
/issued 202 AM CST Mon Jan 16 2017/ The upper low that brought thunderstorms to the area yesterday has lifted into the Plains this morning. An upper trough will lag back to our west behind the main system over the Plains. This will bring another chance for showers Tuesday along with cooler temperatures behind a cold front.
614 AM EST Mon Jan 16 2017 A stationary front just south of our area lifts north as a warm front through early morning. Cold front Tuesday night. With slight ridging aloft and little surface focus decreased POPs some through the remainder of this morning. A cold front crosses Tuesday for another half to an inch of QPF area wide.
509 AM EST Mon Jan 16 2017 Partly cloudy skies cover the island chain this morning under an light northeast to east wind flow thanks to persistent ridge along the eastern seaboard and down the Florida Peninsula. Temperatures across the Florida Keys range in the lower 70s with dewpoints steady in the middle 60s. Persistent ridging across the southeastern U. Winds will remain easterly with the Keys residing on the southern flank of the high pressure region, and with limited moisture rain chances will be near zero. An area of low pressure currently providing a mix of severe and wintry weather over the nations heartland will move to the northeast, residing near the Great Lakes region on Tuesday.
As of 1130z, the low clouds and fog have held off so the current TAF package is much more optimistic with just a brief period of MVFR conditions possible mainly at VLD until shortly after sunrise. A broad, low-amplitude upper level ridge will remain across the GOMEX and southeast CONUS as a stacked low pressure system lifts NEWD from the Central Plains into the Midwest.
/Issued 433 AM CST Mon Jan 16 2017/ Upper low is currently moving northward across the Panhandles. This low produced a band of heavy snow along the western I-40 corridor earlier in the night which brought 2 to 4 inches of snow to that area. This band has since weakened considerably as the upper low moves further north and we have already seen clearing in the southeast and far southwest. Medium range models differ in respect to possible precip chances with this low. As this low lifts across the area around the middle of the work week, we will see two more upper closed low take aim at the Panhandles.
A weak cold front will move across the area tonight, clearing the I-10 corridor after midnight.
North of the warm front, light winds and ample low level moisture has resulted in fog occasionally forming since last evening with the lowest visibilities being most persistent mainly west of the Mississippi River. This will result in the warm front moving back north across the Mid-South today. Warmer and moderating surface dewpoints in the 50s to lower 60s will spread into the area later today. A trailing cold front will gradually move through the Mid-South later tonight into the day on Tuesday with shower and thunderstorm chances gradually shifting southeast towards North Mississippi by Tuesday afternoon.
High pressure will maintain dry weather through tonight. Occasional high level clouds will move over an upper level ridge parked offshore the Pacific Northwest coast. It will probably take the better part of the morning for the low clouds to burn off completely. Most of the forecast area will continue to see dry weather on Tuesday as the ridge axis shifts southeastward and weakens. There will be a fair amount of cloud cover as an upper level trough digs toward the west coast. A long fetch of 1+ inch precipitable water was being entrained into the offshore trough.
539 AM CST Mon Jan 16 2017 While the focus of this forecast remains on the ejecting circulation moving northeast across the southern Plains early this morning, the impacts will be rather minimal compared to the past weekend as surface temperatures will finally be ranging above freezing. This has resulted in temperatures rising above freezing in all but extreme north central to northeast Missouri counties early this morning. Current timing of the retreating surface freezing line has it moving north of Missouri around sunrise, thus the threat of icing will finally end. However, there might still be a slight chance for some icing to persist into the post sunrise hours of today thanks to surfaces that are still below freezing; though even those surfaces will warm up by mid-morning.
625 AM EST Mon Jan 16 2017 Quiet weather is expected today with high pressure over the region.
415 AM CST Mon Jan 16 2017 The nagging upper level low currently in the eastern Texas Panhandle will continue to spin northeastward away from the region. Surface ridging will work in tonight from the northwest tonight possibly accompanied by additional low stratus. Better agreement this morning that an upper trough developing along the Baja coast will develop at least minimal closed contouring tonight and Tuesday while a disturbance will rotate around the bottom and into west Texas late Tuesday.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 72 57 67 54 / 20 30 60 70 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 69 55 65 52 / 20 30 50 70 Oak Ridge, TN 69 56 65 52 / 20 40 60 70 Tri Cities Airport, TN 66 50 63 48 / 20 40 50 70 NC.
835 AM EST Mon Jan 16 2017 A stationary front just south of our area lifts north as a warm front through early morning. Cold front Tuesday night. With slight ridging aloft and little surface focus decreased POPs some through the remainder of this morning. A cold front crosses Tuesday for another half to an inch of QPF area wide.
539 AM EST Mon Jan 16 2017 A warm front will bring warmer temperatures today, with increasing rain chances tonight and Tuesday.
1000 AM EST Mon Jan 16 2017 High pressure to the north will push a little cooler air into the forecast area today. The high will be off the coast and a southerly flow on the backside of the high will dominate Tuesday bringing warmer weather again.
/ISSUED 402 AM CST Mon Jan 16 2017/ At 3 AM, an area of weak of low pressure was located over central Oklahoma with a weak warm front extending SE from the low across southern Arkansas.
411 AM MST Mon Jan 16 2017 An area of light snow and/or freezing rain continues to pivot from the southern Nebraska Panhandle into far southeastern Wyoming this morning. Any lingering threat of freezing rain along I-80 from Sidney to Kimball should end soon as forecast soundings still show cooling profiles through the night, but any snow on top of the ice that has already accumulated will yield hazardous travel. The Winter Adzy for Snow/Freezing rain still looks good but expect we will be able to cancel it early.
949 AM EST Mon Jan 16 2017 High pressure will provide the region with dry seasonable weather today. An approaching frontal complex will bring rain Tuesday, with an initial period of freezing rain expected, especially in the morning.
901 AM EST Mon Jan 16 2017 High pressure will move east today as low pressure tracks north of the region. A weak cold front will then cross the state tonight. High pressure is expected to build back across the region on Tuesday.
433 AM CST Mon Jan 16 2017 Upper low is currently moving northward across the Panhandles. This low produced a band of heavy snow along the western I-40 corridor earlier in the night which brought 2 to 4 inches of snow to that area. This band has since weakened considerably as the upper low moves further north and we have already seen clearing in the southeast and far southwest. Medium range models differ in respect to possible precip chances with this low. As this low lifts across the area around the middle of the work week, we will see two more upper closed low take aim at the Panhandles.
Winds have veered slightly to a more southerly component in the low levels below 900mb, but temperatures are little changed from yesterday. This is all tied into a surge of moisture in the low levels that has raised surface dewpoints this morning.
A warm front will lift northward today with light winds from the south.
1026 AM EST Mon Jan 16 2017 High pressure will build over the area through tonight. A stationary front over the southern mid-Atlantic states will move north as a warm front Tuesday.
455 AM CST Mon Jan 16 2017 Active weather pattern is in full swing this week with our first round of convection making its way into our western and northern zones this morning ahead of a cold front, which is oriented along the I-35 corridor of north TX as of 10Z. Meanwhile, warm front has shifted just north of our CWA with southeast winds now observed at all sites. Looking aloft, the upper trough is quickly pivoting northeast across the Red River Valley with the associated closed low now shifting into southern Kansas. So although the broad area of showers and thunderstorms still continues to slowly expand this morning, expect some dry slotting to occur later today across our northwest zones with heavier rainfall shifting farther south and east with the approaching cold front.
814 AM EST Mon Jan 16 2017 Update A low pressure system will track from Texas today through Michigan on Tuesday. This system will result in a wintry mix of precipitation for the region that changes to rain as some warmer air tries to move in.