Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
WV imagery indicates a northwest flow aloft prevailing across the Western High Plains downstream of an upper level ridge drifting slowly east through the Intermountain West. Near the surface, high pressure extends from the high plains of eastern Wyoming southeast into the panhandles of Oklahoma and Texas.
Early morning satellite imagery with RAP13 surface analysis showed a low pressure system across southeast Wisconsin. Looking ahead to Thursday, high pressure will build in from the west as the aforementioned low pressure stalls out over the Great Lakes.
Cloud cover and fog will dissipate this morning as deep layer ridging begins to build over the region. Expect a quieter day today, with mostly sunny skies, much lighter winds, and highs from the lower 60s east to lower 70s west. The upper level ridge axis will shift into the Northern High Plains tonight as southerly return flow begins in the lower levels. Thursday looks to be the warmest day as the height and thermal ridge axis sits over the central CONUS. Highs could reach the lower to mid 80s across western North Dakota.
Rain and gusty winds are expected today as the low currently centered over the Wisconsin/Illinois border slowly pushes east.
/Issued 307 AM CDT Wed Apr 29 2020/ Breezy and cooler conditions today with a slight chance of light showers across far NW AR on the backside of departing wave.
Dry weather and hot afternoon temperatures will continue through Thursday as high pressure dominates the region. The ridge will weaken in the second half of the week for a gradual decrease in the temperatures and increase in afternoon breezes. Heat will remain the primary forecast concern for the next couple of a days before the ridge flattens and temperatures will start to decrease. Attention then turns to increasing afternoon breezes late week, as the ridge moves off to the east and leaves the region sandwiched in southwest flow.
The true cold front is defined by a sharp dewpoint gradient, while the temperature gradient and wind shift to the southeast is actually the outflow boundary associated with the advancing MCS. Cooler and drier air will continue to overspread North and Central Texas through the day, leading to a mild and mostly sunny day. Lows tonight will drop into the low to mid 50s, which is about 5-10 degrees below normal for late April. Thursday should be an absolutely beautiful day with highs in the lower 80s, dewpoints in the 40s, and sunny skies.
A sharp, long-wave trough reaches south from Ontario to near the Red River Valley. Out west, an amplified ridge axis reaches well to the north into the Canadian Rockies. Temperatures are in the mid 80s and with dewpoints in the lower 70s, which have recovered from the yesterday's mid to upper 60s. A western North Atlantic ridge axis extending across the Gulf Coast will sag southward through Florida tonight.
512 AM MDT Wed Apr 29 2020 The overnight WV/IR imagery revealed a upper level ridge situated over the Intermountain West, a upper level trough over the eastern Great Plains, and a dry northwesterly flow aloft. A quieter weather pattern is in store today and tonight with high pressure in control. Current models/ensembles are in good agreement with the eastward progress of the upper level ridge across the Rockies and High Plains Thursday.
546 AM EDT Wed Apr 29 2020 The short term period will be dominated by a large, deep low pressure system which is centered near Chicago early this morning. The winds will ease up as the low levels start to mix during the day, but we will probably see some gusts topping 30 mph for a time. The warm air advection coupled with the support of an amplifying upper level trough/low is already bring shower for some locations early this morning. Showers will peak in our area this afternoon and early evening as the system's cold front moves through, underneath a still strengthening upper level low. On Thursday, deep moisture wrapping around the wound up system will pivot into our area from the northwest under the upper low.
323 AM PDT Wed Apr 29 2020 High pressure over the western states will begin to move east and weaken as a trough of low pressure over the eastern Pacific moves toward the West Coast.
618 AM CDT Wed Apr 29 2020 (Today and tonight) Cold front that brought yesterday's severe weather is progressing well south of our area early this morning. In its wake, ridging will build into the area bringing with it plenty of sunshine and a much drier airmass.
A large, slow moving, low pressure system is expected to affect the area through Thursday.
A series of weak cold fronts will graze the northern portion of the area over the next several days bringing some light rain to the Redwood Coast.
The ridge will move over the eastern counties tonight and exit into MN Thursday. Behind the ridge we'll get back to increasing southerly winds Thursday, with temperatures jumping mainly into the 70s. High pressure will be sliding east of the region at the beginning of the period, with low pressure approaching from the west.
Highs will reach the lower to mid 70s over most of the plains, 60s in the foothills and high mountain valleys, and 40s and 50s in the mountains. Areas in/near the foothills will be warmer, however, with light downslope flow ahead of tomorrow's summerlike heat.
657 AM CDT Wed Apr 29 2020 Upper level trough churning across the MO River Valley early this morning, taking a southeast track for the rest of the day. Bits of upper level energy will continue to drop into the trough as it exits, and working with the lingering saturation, which churn out scattered to areas of showers today, mostly across western WI. Thursday shaping to be a pretty nice day as high pressure builds in with sunshine returning, lighter winds and seasonable temps.
As the ridge continues to build over the area, southerly flow at the surface will allow temperatures to bounce back into the 70s on Thursday.
The cold-core upper low is currently over NW MO and will skirt the NE CWA today, promoting scattered showers, especially across the NE CWA closer to the upper low. Highs will be in the 60s, which will be made to feel cooler by the winds, cloud cover, and showers. Skies clear tonight as surface ridging moves in, with lows in the 40s. As the upper ridge continues to move east into the area, temperatures will be on the rise.
106 PM CDT Wed Apr 29 2020 A mixed low level cu field persists over portions of the MN Lakes Country, and on the tale end of the wraparound moisture flow from our departing low pressure system. At the surface, high pressure stretches from southern MB back into the central Dakotas. The H5 flow becomes northerly through the day as an upper ridge gradually moves eastward.
1253 PM CDT Wed Apr 29 2020 Dry air continues to invade the region under the influence of northwesterly flow ahead of a mid-level ridge. Cooler theta-e advection has given way to pleasant temperatures across the region this afternoon, with highs expected to peak into the upper 70s and lower 80s across the CWA. Temperatures have therefore been adjusted a few degrees cooler than what the statistical and numerical guidance has provided, and lows in the middle to upper 40s are in store for tonight area-wide. A strong ridge will build into the southern and central Great Plains by tomorrow, with highs soaring back into the upper 80s and lower 90s for Thursday (the beginning of the weekend scorch!).
However, with mixing ahead of an approaching cold front, temperatures should still be able to climb into the upper 70s/low 80s by this afternoon. Conditions will improve through the morning into the afternoon hours as high pressure settles into the northwest gulf region.
Line of showers/isolated storms coming in ahead of a cold front expected to sweep across the area throughout most the day. Another line of TSRA/SHRA will develop later this morning after 15Z in association with a cold front.
305 PM CDT Wed Apr 29 2020 Current surface analysis shows a cold front finally moving out of the area with gusty winds behind it. Lows tonight will generally be in the low 50s. High pressure will move into the area tomorrow and dry weather should persist through the end of the weekend. High temperatures will remain in the lower 70s through tomorrow then have a warming trend through the weekend.
Iowa remains under the cyclonic flow from this low. The pressure gradient will begin to relax by late this afternoon and into the evening as high pressure ridge approaches from the west and the mixing diminishes. The area of high pressure will move over Iowa on Thursday through much of the state will be on the northwest flow side of the high most of the day.
Much drier air will filter into the region tonight and Thursday, clearing our skies and bringing somewhat cooler temperatures through Thursday night.
High pressure will build across the Upper Midwest tonight and Thursday. Temperatures on Thursday will be much warmer with highs reaching the 70s.
Thursday will be quite a bit cooler and breezy with mainly mountain showers.
Ridge overhead today then it will slip eastward tonight as a weak disturbance ejects NE across the Northern Rockies from the longwave trough off the West Coast. The associated cold front will move into northern Utah.
A sharp, long-wave trough reaches south from Ontario to near the Mississippi River Valley. Out west, an amplified ridge axis reaches well to the north into the Canadian Rockies. Temperatures are in the mid to upper 80s, with dewpoints in the lower to mid 70s.
1105 AM EDT Wed Apr 29 2020 A strong low pressure system will push a cold front across the region today as it gets hung up in lower Michigan. This low will push a secondary cold front through on Thursday and then weaken over central Ohio overnight.
The cold front has moved off the coast and high pressure is building in behind. An upper ridge will build over the Four Corners region bringing northwesterly flow over Texas during this period. Winds will lighten with a loose pressure gradient and the center of the high moves across the wind direction will vary. Low temperatures Thursday morning will be below normal and 5 to 15 degrees cooler than Wednesday. Thursday night the high will move far enough east to turn the winds to the southeast.
Ridging aloft moving out of the Colorado Rockies into the Western High Plains and much drier air prevailing across western Kansas will extend the ongoing dry pattern through Thursday afternoon. Expect highs well up into the 80s(F) in the afternoon with the lower 90s(F) possible in some portions of extreme southwest Kansas.
The sfc winds will continue NW on Thursday 5-15KT with the stronger speeds in our E as high pressure will be centered on the TX coastal bend. The cold front has now arrived with gusty NW winds across much of our area.
All of this cold air comes from a stacked low-pressure system centered over Illinois this hour.
1207 PM MDT Wed Apr 29 2020 Next arriving upstream trough will be forcing the ridge eastward leading to a hot and breezy forecast.
1018 AM CDT Wed Apr 29 2020 A cold front currently draped just west of the Mississippi River is bringing showers to the area. A cold front is currently across north central and western portions of Arkansas. It appears that another area of showers and thunderstorms may develop later today as the cold front moves through the region. Temperatures will be a little cooler today with highs from the upper 60s to lower 70s. The cold front will be east of the region tonight with all of rain having exited the Mid-South. Temperatures will remain below normal tonight with lows Thursday morning in the lower 50s. High pressure will build into the region on Thursday bringing dry weather.
The cold front has now arrived with gusty NW winds across much of our area.
A cold front will continue moving east across the MS River early this morning, and should be east of the forecast area by late morning. Will probably need to contend with returning pops for showers/isolated thunderstorms the afternoon and evening as the deep upper level trof plows east into the area. With very cold air aloft expected to accompany the trof, would not be surprised to get small hail reports with any thunderstorms that mange to develop. While sunshine should help areas of se MO make it back up to near 70 Thursday afternoon, eastern areas may struggle to get into the lower 60s.
/issued 626 AM CDT Wed Apr 29 2020/ /12Z TAFS/ Strong northeast to northeast winds will affect KSJT, KSOA and KJCT through 15Z behind a cold front, with winds gusts of 35 KTS. /issued 335 AM CDT Wed Apr 29 2020/ (Today and Tonight) A slightly delayed cold front extended from south of Midland to San Angelo to Coleman and Comanche at 230 AM. The cold front is still expected to push south through the rest of West Central Texas through daybreak, ending shower and thunderstorm chances for West Central Texas. Breezy, sunny and cooler behind the front today. Cooler tonight.
The main cold front lagging behind has just arrived in northwest Alabama and will continue to move eastward through the evening. Rain chances end from west to east overnight with rain ending by midnight in northeast Alabama The low pressure system with the aformentioned cold front ejects northeast with some wrap around precip possible in far northeast Alabama, otherwise most areas stay dry. Upper level trough in place on Thursday with northwest flow into the area will hold temperatures in the mid 60s.
Issued by National Weather Service Riverton WY 1115 AM MDT Wed Apr 29 2020 The overnight WV/IR imagery revealed a upper level ridge situated over the Intermountain West, a upper level trough over the eastern Great Plains, and a dry northwesterly flow aloft. A quieter weather pattern is in store today and tonight with high pressure in control. Current models/ensembles are in good agreement with the eastward progress of the upper level ridge across the Rockies and High Plains Thursday.
As high pressure builds in behind the front, VFR conditions should prevail tonight and Thursday.
212 PM CDT Wed Apr 29 2020 An upper ridge is centered over the southwestern U. with an upper trough centered over the Midwest. A cold front has moved into the area with gusty northeast winds. Temperatures are much cooler today with highs mostly in the 70s and 80s.
238 PM CDT Wed Apr 29 2020 Occluded low pressure situated over lower MI has been spreading low stratus and showers across much of the cwa this afternoon. Lows will be in the lower 40s at most locations. Thursday: Clouds may linger in our far eastern counties for a time but for most of the cwa skies should be sunny, as high pressure ridge pushes into eastern IA late in the day. This will push afternoon temperatures into the lower to mid 60s with the help of late April sunshine.
201 PM EDT Wed Apr 29 2020 High pressure across the area will continue to shift southeast this evening as a cold front approaches, with the showers and thunderstorms ahead of this front pushing into the area generally after midnight and continuing to progress southward through the overnight hours and into Thursday, exiting later Thursday afternoon. High pressure will build into the area behind the front and bring a little cooler and drier air.
With another weak trough progged to rotate around the back of the departing upper low, have maintained slight to low chances POPs through much of Thursday in the Evansville Tri-State, West KY Coalfields, and southern KY Pennyrile. This trough will lead to a stark gradient in sky coverage tonight through Thursday, with mostly clear skies in the Ozark Foothills to mostly cloudy in the Evansville Tri-State and KY Pennyrile.
A large closed low pressure system will slowly drift eastward across the region through the end of the work week.
Due to the clouds, lowered the high temperatures for today by 3 to 5F. Upper level trough churning across the MO River Valley early this morning, taking a southeast track for the rest of the day. Bits of upper level energy will continue to drop into the trough as it exits, and working with the lingering saturation, which churn out scattered to areas of showers today, mostly across western WI. Thursday shaping to be a pretty nice day as high pressure builds in with sunshine returning, lighter winds and seasonable temps.
The highest wind gust so far is 46 mph at Charles City. As a stated earlier, the low level moisture is decreasing and some of these clouds look open cellular across west-central Wisconsin, southeast Minnesota, and northeast Iowa, so this may result in a rapid decrease in cloud cover with the loss diurnal heating this evening. Broad upper level ridging will set up across the central CONUS leaving the forecast area under zonal flow through the weekend.
We've nudged the model blend toward the generally cooler hi-res guidance.
some high clouds are expected to spill over a longwave ridge axis approaching the area. upper ridge axis moves into far eastern Colorado with some degree/thickness of cirrus over the area. High temperatures are expected to be in the low to upper 80s, warmest along and west of the CO/KS border.
Main issue this afternoon looks to be the elevated nrly winds developing with the cold frontal passage. However, with mixing ahead of an approaching cold front, temperatures should still be able to climb into the upper 70s/low 80s by this afternoon. Conditions will improve through the morning into the afternoon hours as high pressure settles into the northwest gulf region.
157 PM CDT Wed Apr 29 2020 Tonight and Thursday: After a large line of rain and storms moved through early this morning, the parent cold front is finally moving across the area. Showers will exit the forecast area by sunset with dry conditions into Thursday as ridging builds in across the Plains states. Daytime highs will be slightly below normal Thursday as we remain on the back end of the upper trough passing across the region. /DL/ Dry conditions will continue Thursday night through the weekend as high pressure remains in control across the region.
250 PM CDT Wed Apr 29 2020 The backside of an upper level low currently centered over the Midwest/Ohio River valley continued to make its way through Northwest Arkansas this afternoon. gusty northwesterly winds of 20-30mph transporting cooler and drier air were observed with temps in the 60s to low 70s over the CWA.
Daily heat records are possible today and Thursday, with highs from the low eighties in the mountains to near one hundred degrees in the lower valleys. Current satellite and upper-air analysis reveals a abnormally strong ridge of high pressure and clear skies in place across Arizona this morning. The strong ridge of high pressure over the Western US will dominate the weather for northern Arizona through Thursday.
Cold front will enter our western areas this evening and push through the Big Bend before dawn.
222 PM EDT Wed Apr 29 2020 A strong low pressure system will push a cold front across the region today as it gets hung up in lower Michigan. This low will push a secondary cold front through on Thursday and then weaken over central Ohio overnight.
/issued 257 AM CDT Wed Apr 29 2020/ Today will be noticeably cooler than yesterday, as a cold front continues its steady southwestward progression across the region, already nearing the higher terrain of Southeast New Mexico and Southwest Texas as of 300am CDT. Highs today will top out in the 70s and 80s for most, with lower 90s possible through the Rio Grande Valley, 15 to 20 degrees cooler than yesterday.
Expect this low level flow to decrease by early afternoon, so the strongest winds should be relatively shortlived, though they will still remain gusty through the afternoon. Day (Today and tonight) Cold front that brought yesterday's severe weather is progressing well south of our area early this morning. In its wake, ridging will build into the area bringing with it plenty of sunshine and a much drier airmass.
255 PM CDT Wed Apr 29 2020 Temperatures were almost 20-30 degrees cooler than this time yesterday as substantial cloud cover, showers and gusty northwest winds were occuring across the area as low pressure was pushing off to the northeast across the Great Lakes.
This is definitely on the low end of guidance, but recently we've "overachieved" on good radiational cooling nights. High pressure exits the area on Thursday as upper level ridging amplifies over the western CONUS.
Dry conditions will continue, for another 24 hours, as temperatures remain cooler than the last several days. Dry and Becoming Hot with Another Cold Front.
Tonight and Thursday Upper low over Southern Wisconsin is forecast to move very slowly east into Lower Michigan as it runs into a high amplitude upper ridge to the east. Highs Thursday will be much warmer than today with clearing skies.
Scattered showers still possible across northwest Arkansas this afternoon on backside of departing upper low.
Mostly sunny and breezy across se Ga/ne Fl this afternoon as pressure gradient tightens ahead of cold front to nw. Storms are then expected to increase along a prefrontal trough this evening and move into interior se Ga and the Suwannee Valley of ne Fl by around midnight. Ascent will be on the increase as an amplifying upper trough digs down into the deep south. This trough will bring an increase in lift and vertical shear which will increase storm coverage and strength. Convection should move offshore early Thursday morning with lingering showers possible over ne Fl until the cold front moves through by late morning. Breezy and drier conditions for Thursday afternoon as west winds advect in slightly cooler air.
An upper level ridge axis is located over AZ/UT extending north across the Great Basin based on latest water vapor imagery. This is upstream from vigorous low pressure moving east across IL. As surface ridging builds in through the afternoon, winds will continue to decrease. For Thursday, the upper ridge will shift east across the Rocky Mountains but dampen some as it approaches the adjacent plains. 500mb Height rises will still be expected with subsidence as the ridge approaches. The Palo Duro Canyon floor has been running about 4 to 6 degree warmer than the rim, so 95 is likely there. This will occur as ample mixing and a lee trough support warm temperatures (low 90s) and breezy downslope winds (15 to 25 mph).
We will see increasing high clouds begin to spill over the upper ridge with southerly return flow developing tonight.
SPC covers our entire CWA and east to the Wyoming border with a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms Thursday when the surface cold front and upper trough come in.
251 PM EDT Wed Apr 29 2020 A cold front is forecast to move across the area tonight. An upper level trough is forecast to move across the area on Thursday.
258 PM EDT Wed Apr 29 2020 A cold front is forecast to move across the area tonight. An upper level trough is forecast to move across the area on Thursday.
/issued 1018 AM CDT Wed Apr 29 2020/ A cold front currently draped just west of the Mississippi River is bringing showers to the area. A cold front is currently across north central and western portions of Arkansas. It appears that another area of showers and thunderstorms may develop later today as the cold front moves through the region. Temperatures will be a little cooler today with highs from the upper 60s to lower 70s. The cold front will be east of the region tonight with all of rain having exited the Mid-South. Temperatures will remain below normal tonight with lows Thursday morning in the lower 50s. High pressure will build into the region on Thursday bringing dry weather.
133 PM CDT Wed Apr 29 2020 (Today and tonight) Cold front that brought yesterday's severe weather is progressing well south of our area early this morning. In its wake, ridging will build into the area bringing with it plenty of sunshine and a much drier airmass.
Line of showers/isolated storms coming in ahead of a cold front expected to sweep across the area throughout most the day. A cold front will cross the area today with numerous showers and a few thunderstorms, resulting in mainly MVFR conditions. An upper level low pressure system will follow the front, bringing mainly MVFR cigs with isolated showers tonight into Thursday.