Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
619 AM CDT Mon Sep 27 2021 The main challenges in the short term will be the high temperatures and any associated increase in fire danger. An upper ridge will become more amplified over the Plains today. Slightly cooler air across the northeast this morning on a backdoor "cool" front will have little effect on temperatures by afternoon as H85 temps will only be off a couple of degrees from yesterday.
Today will feature the warmest temperatures with highs in the lower to middle 80s. A weak cold front then brings temperatures back to more seasonable levels for the remainder of the week. Lower 20C at 925mb to Weak, dry cold front from northern Upper Great Lakes to drop southeast into CWA this evening/overnight. Backdoor cold front continues southward through CWA tonight. Shallow nature of cold air infiltrating CWA and ridging aloft as centroid of omega block nears as it envelops Upper Great Lakes to Gulf Coastal region through the forecast period. Some potential for fog/stratus late tonight as weak cold front settles into the region.
High pressure was in place across the Northland this morning with a cold front across central Wisconsin into southern Minnesota. As the high shifts more to the east today into tomorrow, southerly flow will ramp up warm air advection across the Upper Midwest and bring above normal temperatures for much of the week. A longwave trough will slowly work across the Rockies during the middle of the week as an elongated area of low pressure sets up across eastern Plains and western Midwest.
327 AM MDT Mon Sep 27 2021 An upper level low over sern Arizona will move northeast, into nrn New Mexico, by tonight. For tonight, there will continue to be an increase in mid and high level moisture, as the upper level low moves closer to the area. On Tuesday, A large upper level ridge of high pressure will stretch from Manitoba Canada south across the Southern Mississippi Valley, with an upper level trough over the Western U. Increased cloudiness and shower activity will result in cooler temperatures across the area, however temperatures are still expected to be above normal values.
955 AM CDT Mon Sep 27 2021 High pressure remains over the Southeast, centered over the Carolinas. Highs today should get up into the low-to-mid 80s. Some changes were made to the short term forecast, as models have diverged a bit regarding the evolution of the upper ridge during the early to mid- week timeframe. The GFS broadens the upper ridge over the lower MS River Valley and into the Southeast, while the ECMWF is a little more amplified.
739 AM EDT Mon Sep 27 2021 Upper level ridging in the western Gulf of Mexico extending north and a trough stretching south along the eastern US coast will bring in a dry stable northwesterly flow aloft the area today. High pressure initially centered in NC/SC slips out over the Atlantic later today. High pressure dominates with prevailing northeast or east winds.
Afternoon temperatures will remain cooler than average thanks to these two storm systems. The upper low responsible for the showers and thunderstorms of late was centered over east-central AZ early this morning. Models track this upper low into the central Rockies with rain chances ending for most of SE AZ later today.
545 AM EDT Mon Sep 27 2021 Dry weather is expected today under high pressure. Shower and thunderstorm chances return tonight and Tuesday with a a crossing cold front. Dry weather and seasonable temperatures are then expected through the rest of the week as high pressure builds back in. Otherwise, dry weather is expected today as high pressure tracks east toward the Mid Atlantic region. A sufficient pressure gradient between the high, and an approaching cold front from the Upper Midwest/Wrn Great Lakes region, should result in gusty SW wind after mixing begins this morning. High temperatures are expected to be 5 to 10 degrees above average today with the warmer air aloft in place.
532 AM CDT Mon Sep 27 2021 (Today and tonight) A mid-level trough will start to move into the Southern Plains today. Temperatures today should be in the low 90s, and lows tonight in the mid 60s across Oklahoma.
300 AM PDT Mon Sep 27 2021 Showers are on track for this afternoon and tonight along with a little cooler temperatures.
/DC/ Today: This morning, GOES-E WV imagery & synoptic/RAP analysis indicate cutoff low trough axis situated over Desert SW. Mid-level ridge axis is situated over the S Plains into TX. Tonight: As cutoff low slowly ejects E-NE into Intermountain W, mid- level ridge builds E. As low-level warm front to the SW over the N Gulf builds N-NE, moisture & boundary layer moisture will increase. Might be a tad warmer in the W.
732 AM EDT Mon Sep 27 2021 Dry weather is expected today under high pressure. Shower and thunderstorm chances return tonight and Tuesday with a crossing cold front. Dry weather and seasonable temperatures are then expected through the rest of the week as high pressure builds back in. Otherwise, dry weather is expected today as high pressure tracks east toward the Mid Atlantic region. A sufficient pressure gradient between the high, and an approaching cold front from the Upper Midwest/Wrn Great Lakes region, should result in gusty SW wind after mixing begins this morning. High temperatures are expected to be 5 to 10 degrees above average today with the warmer air aloft in place.
326 AM MDT Mon Sep 27 2021 A broad ridge of high pressure is fully in control across the entire central/northern Rockies and central/northern High Plains regions. As the ridge slowly moves eastward over the next day and a half, the upper-level flow pattern becomes much more meridional. The ridge become amplified over the plains as a new low pressure trough moves onshore and into the intermountain west region. Second, in our western zones: Cold frontal winds from the northwest could arrive as early as Noon, but will also be pushing higher humidities along as they come, making fire weather conditions there also barely coincident for a few hours at best.
635 AM CDT Mon Sep 27 2021 An upper level low over the desert southwest, which is stuck under a broader upper level ridge will continue to churn its way slowly to the east today. The upper level ridge will shift over the Ozarks overnight tonight. The upper low over the southwest will work to increase the amplitude of the ridge over the regional it is picked up by additional upper level energy as a trough digs into the southwest.
A return to drier and warmer is forecast by the weekend. For Monday, expect moisture to continue to wrap around the low now located across of eastern Arizona and western New Mexico. The best coverage looks to develop along the Mogollon Rim before dropping into the lower elevations by early/late afternoon. The low will continue to track northeastward slowly being absorbed by a deepening wave across the Pacific Northwest with shower and thunderstorm coverage shifting to mainly the eastern portion of the area on Tuesday. We remain in a weak troughing pattern through the midweek with impulses rotating through kicking up continued rounds of shower and thunderstorms.
938 AM EDT Mon Sep 27 2021 High pressure centered over the region this morning will slide offshore through Tuesday.
405 AM CDT Mon Sep 27 2021 The main challenges in the short term will be the high temperatures and any associated increase in fire danger. An upper ridge will become more amplified over the Plains today. Slightly cooler air across the northeast this morning on a backdoor "cool" front will have little effect on temperatures by afternoon as H85 temps will only be off a couple of degrees from yesterday.
144 PM EDT Mon Sep 27 2021 A weak cold front will approach today and slide through the region on Tuesday. Dry weather will then prevail through the rest of the work week as ridging builds into the Ohio Valley. A cold front will push south through the area during the day on Tuesday. Temperatures will be warm in the southwesterly surface flow ahead of the weakening cold front. Model solutions are in fairly good agreement with amplified mid level flow with a deep trof over the northeast and a ridge over the Mississippi Valley.
400 PM EDT Mon Sep 27 2021 High pressure centered over the region this morning will slide offshore through Tuesday.
Heights will continue to rise this afternoon and tonight as upper ridging builds over the region. The trough developing to our west will continue to bring south to southeasterly winds through the overnight. Kept lows in the 50s overnight, and temps should rebound quickly tomorrow morning as the upper ridge moves into MN. Strong mixing from south winds and the thermal ridge over the area will keep highs well above normal. With recent over-performance of area highs, continued temps on Tuesday on the higher side of the ensemble spread, in the 80s to low 90s.
309 PM CDT Mon Sep 27 2021 (Issued 309 PM CDT Mon Sep 27 2021) Tonight through Tuesday night: High pressure will build into the area tonight into Tuesday, keeping skies mostly clear through tomorrow night. The NAM is showing fog possible tonight, but the RAP and GFS are much drier in the low levels, so left out mention of fog for now. Onshore winds will keep it a bit cooler near the lake.
Slightly cooler temperatures will return for late this week into the weekend. High pressure continues to give us mostly clear and comfortable conditions. High pressure center will begin to shift offshore overnight. However, still expecting good radiational cooling conditions once again with lows closer to the lower 60s.
SHORT TERM (Tonight through Tuesday Night): A 500mb ridge is expected to continue to bring drier conditions to the CWA tonight into tomorrow. The ridge currently situated over Texas starts to move eastward through the day Tuesday while a trough moves in its place.
However, due to substantially dry air at the low to middle layers, mainly mid-level clouds and virga will be the main result.
237 PM EDT Mon Sep 27 2021 Dry high pressure will dominate the region through Tuesday, with warming temperatures.
KS Chattanooga Airport, TN 59 83 60 85 62 / 0 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 59 82 60 84 61 / 0 0 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 57 83 60 84 60 / 0 0 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 55 80 57 81 57 / 0 0 0 0 0.
High temperatures are forecast to top out in the upper-80s to perhaps low-90s, with the highest readings across far southwestern Missouri into southeast Kansas. Temperatures are running generally 2-3 degrees cooler than forecast presently, perhaps due to a diffuse high cloud deck that has overspread the region. A rather diffuse upper-level ridge, centered across the Upper Midwest, will foster another warm and dry day across the region.
It looks like winds closer to the Canadian border will combine with the low humidity to give Elevated conditions. TFJ A broad ridge of high pressure is fully in control across the entire central/northern Rockies and central/northern High Plains regions. As the ridge slowly moves eastward over the next day and a half, the upper-level flow pattern becomes much more meridional. The ridge become amplified over the plains as a new low pressure trough moves onshore and into the intermountain west region. Second, in our western zones: Cold frontal winds from the northwest could arrive as early as Noon, but will also be pushing higher humidities along as they come, making fire weather conditions there also barely coincident for a few hours at best.
But a cold front and clouds Tuesday will knock temps down over today west of a Glasgow to Jordan line. Winds Tuesday with and behind the cold front do look to be strong with sustained speeds over 20 mph during the afternoon. A cold front will quickly increase NW winds tomorrow early afternoon at KGGW that moves into the eastern airfields soon after. DISCUSSION: The current warm airmass will be replaced late Tuesday as a cold front arrives.
The main challenges in the short term will be the high temperatures and any associated increase in fire danger. An upper ridge will become more amplified over the Plains today. Slightly cooler air across the northeast this morning on a backdoor "cool" front will have little effect on temperatures by afternoon as H85 temps will only be off a couple of degrees from yesterday.
A return to drier and warmer is forecast by the weekend. For Monday, expect moisture to continue to wrap around the low now located across eastern Arizona and western New Mexico. The best coverage looks to develop along the Mogollon Rim before dropping into the lower elevations by early/late afternoon. The low will continue to track northeastward slowly being absorbed by a deepening wave across the Pacific Northwest with shower and thunderstorm coverage shifting to mainly the eastern portion of the area on Tuesday. We remain in a weak troughing pattern through the midweek with impulses rotating through kicking up continued rounds of shower and thunderstorms.
1129 AM MDT Mon Sep 27 2021 Upper analysis shows a broad upper ridge over region which will maintain dry and unseasonably warm weather over the forecast area today through Tuesday. On Tuesday, the potential exists for some record warm temperatures with southerly winds increasing ahead of an approaching low pressure system.
154 PM MDT Mon Sep 27 2021 The latest water vapor and 500-mb height analysis showed a broad ridge over region that will maintain dry and unseasonably warm weather over the forecast area through Tuesday (early evening).
237 PM CDT Mon Sep 27 2021 No significant changes to the previous forecast this afternoon as things still appear be on track with another unseasonably warm day Tuesday ahead of an upper level low expected to reach the area Tuesday night.
221 PM CDT Mon Sep 27 2021 Tonight and Tuesday: Most of the area remains cloud- and rain-free this afternoon, but change is on the horizon as a warm front lifts northward across the area overnight, taking our fall-like weather with it. During the daytime, along with dewpoints increasing back into the lower 70s across much of the area, scattered to numerous showers will become more numerous through the afternoon along with embedded convection.
104 PM PDT Mon Sep 27 2021 A trough of low pressure will move through the region tonight bringing gusty winds and cooler temperatures.
This boundary separates the higher PW airmass of roughly 2" and higher.
110 PM EDT Mon Sep 27 2021 High pressure centered over the region this morning will slide offshore through Tuesday.
(This afternoon through Tuesday night) An upper low/trough is centered over the Arizona and New Mexico border. This trough has increased upper level lift over West Texas and Southeast New Mexico. The upper low will lift northeastward on Tuesday with the bottom portion of it over West Texas and Southeast New Mexico. Temperatures on Tuesday will be similar or slightly warmer than today.
1241 PM EDT Mon Sep 27 2021 Shower and thunderstorm chances return for late tonight and Tuesday with a crossing cold front. High pressure returns tomorrow night, and a period of dry weather and seasonable temperatures can be expected for the rest of the week. A mostly sunny sky will remain in place this afternoon as high pressure tracks to our south. Gusty wind of up to 25 MPH will continue this afternoon with a decent surface pressure gradient between the high and an approaching cold front. The cold front will drop south across the Great Lakes through the night. The surface cold front will be in the vicinity of I-80 at sunrise on Tuesday.
/issued 632 AM CDT Mon Sep 27 2021/ Upper level low pressure rotating into west-central New Mexico will move to north-central New Mexico by 12Z Tuesday. /issued 321 AM CDT Mon Sep 27 2021/ Upper level low pressure near the Arizona-New Mexico border early this morning will rotate into central and northern New Mexico later today and tonight. RMcQueen An upper low will be just to our west over northern New Mexico by tomorrow morning and will quickly become absorbed into the main flow as it quickly pushes northward through the afternoon. Things will remain quiet through mid week as we remain under the influence of an elongated upper trough across the Rockies with relatively weak upper flow.
An upper level low over the desert southwest, which is stuck under a broader upper level ridge will continue to churn its way slowly to the east today. The upper level ridge will shift over the Ozarks overnight tonight. The upper low over the southwest will work to increase the amplitude of the ridge over the regional it is picked up by additional upper level energy as a trough digs into the southwest.
Amplified ridge axis sets up east of I-29 for Tuesday with some tightening of the SPG and thus some southerly gusts to around 25 mph during the afternoon.
Above normal/near-record high temperatures are expected today and again tomorrow as an upper- level ridge axis moves overhead. This could push highs a bit warmer which would push KOFK above the weakest record (90 in 2011 and 1922).
At h5, an upper ridge will be building on top of us during the short term. At the surface, the high pressure currently northwest of Lake Superior will be sliding southeast over to around Lake Huron.
Today Through Tuesday Night Ridging aloft was centered over the Western Gulf of Mexico while an upper low was positioned over the Four Corners States. Expect southerly flow will continue to increase across the area, resulting in milder temperatures and increasing moisture in the low and mid levels.
429 PM EDT Mon Sep 27 2021 A cold front will cross the region tonight. High pressure returns Tuesday.
Surface ridging remains the dominant weather feature tonight and tomorrow, with rain-free conditions continuing. As the upper level ridge axis crosses the lower Mississippi River Valley tomorrow, some spill over of cloud cover is possible tomorrow afternoon in the west. Lows will be slightly warmer tonight, with mid to upper 50s expected in the north to lower 60s in the south.
249 PM CDT Mon Sep 27 2021 An upper-level ridge is currently building over the central U. as a closed low spins over the Desert Southwest. The positioning of the ridge has the Middle Mississippi Valley under northwest flow aloft. With 850 mb temperatures around 20 degrees C this afternoon and gusty winds out of the southwest, high temperatures in the low 90s are possible for many locations. Tomorrow, the cut-off low over the Southwest will begin to become absorbed into a trough pivoting over the western U. and impede upon the ridge centered over the Great Plains. This will cause the ridge to shift eastward and mid-level temperatures to cool a couple degrees to around 18 degrees C. In turn, afternoon highs will be a degree or two cooler on Tuesday compared to Monday.
1222 PM CDT Mon Sep 27 2021 Weak, elongated low pressure and a cold front sit over the forecast area early this morning. Plenty of sun will help to offset slightly cooler 925/850mb temps oozing southward behind the front, so today looks to be another fairly warm day for most. Lows in the low to mid 40s roughly along/north of I-90, low to mid 50s elsewhere. Upper ridging over the nation's midsection continues to amplify heading into Tue as a deepening trough comes ashore the Pacific Northwest.
/issued 739 AM EDT Mon Sep 27 2021/ Upper level ridging in the western Gulf of Mexico extending north and a trough stretching south along the eastern US coast will bring in a dry stable northwesterly flow aloft the area today. High pressure initially centered in NC/SC slips out over the Atlantic later today. High pressure dominates with prevailing northeast or east winds.
Surface observations show increasing southwest winds this morning ahead of an incoming trough. A cold front remains on track to push across the region tonight and into the early morning, generating breezy to strong winds and a band of light to moderate precipitation. A round of early morning showers will follow behind the cold front, ushering in rain and 1-2 inches of snow above 6000 ft MSL. A cold front will move west to east tonight into Tuesday morning with precipitation and gusty winds.
High pressure remains over the Southeast, centered over the Carolinas. Highs today should get up into the low-to-mid 80s. Some changes were made to the short term forecast, as models have diverged a bit regarding the evolution of the upper ridge during the early to mid- week timeframe. The GFS broadens the upper ridge over the lower MS River Valley and into the Southeast, while the ECMWF is a little more amplified.
Afternoon temperatures will remain cooler than average thanks to these two storm systems. The upper low that has brought precipitation to the region is currently centered along the central AZ/NM border and it will continue to slowly lift to the NE. As a result of the cool airmass overhead, high temperatures will peak around 8-10 degrees cooler than average for late September.
244 PM EDT Mon Sep 27 2021 A long wave trough axis extends from the Eastern Seaboard to near central Cuba. High pressure centered over the southeastern United States covers Florida and the eastern Gulf of Mexico in fair weather and a convection-less afternoon. High pressure will remain more or less settled across the southeastern United States and the extreme western North Atlantic, maintaining northeast to east breezes across the Florida Keys. Additionally, very dry and sinking air along the western flank of the stalled trough axis to our east will limit the health of any vertical development.
1218 PM CDT Mon Sep 27 2021 (Today and tonight) An upper level low will move east into central New Mexico this afternoon. Scattered showers and thunderstorms had already developed over the Southwest Mountains earlier tonight as the upper low approached. Temperatures today will be a couple degrees cooler over the Concho Valley southward to Ozona and Sonora, where clouds and storms are possible.
Have the highest confidence in Corson County reaching the Red Flag Criteria with winds and relative humidity to issue a Red Flag Warning there.
224 PM MDT Mon Sep 27 2021 High pressure and downslope flow did not disappoint today as temperatures have climbed to reach 90 in far eastern MT as of 130 PM. The prominent cutoff upper low just off the coast of the Pacific Northwest finally moves inland, bringing with it a strong cold front to cross the area throughout the afternoon.
High pressure over the region is keeping the area dry.
An upper level low over sern Arizona will move northeast, into nrn New Mexico, by tonight. For tonight, there will continue to be an increase in mid and high level moisture, as the upper level low moves closer to the area. On Tuesday, A large upper level ridge of high pressure will stretch from Manitoba Canada south across the Southern Mississippi Valley, with an upper level trough over the Western U. Increased cloudiness and shower activity will result in cooler temperatures across the area, however temperatures are still expected to be above normal values.
Southwesterly winds will begin to increase region-wide later this afternoon, and will peak late this evening as a cold front approaches from the west. Temperatures for tomorrow afternoon will be around 20 degrees cooler than what will occur this afternoon, with many valleys remaining in the mid 50s. Precipitation is also expected to develop along and ahead of the cold front, and linger through the day tomorrow. At this time, north-central Idaho and northwest Montana will see the higher totals, of around 0. Initially, the broader valleys in western Montana will see considerable downsloping, and will not receive much rainfall, if any, as the downsloping winds dry out the lower atmosphere in the valleys.
Temperatures tonight will be a few degrees warmer than last night with lows in the low/mid 60s inland and upper 60s coast.