Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1129 PM MDT SUN MAR 22 2015 VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWED MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS REGION IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON WITH A FEW HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. HOWEVER THE DRY AIR SLOT WAS MOVING OUT OF THE AREA WITH INCREASED AREAS OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE AND INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. BUT CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO PERSIST OVER THE AREA TO KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY COOLER IN THE MID 60S. THE LOWER TEMPERATURES WILL KEEP RELATIVE HUMIDITIES BETWEEN 25 AND 30 PERCENT. NOT VERY CONFIDENT AND REMAIN SKEPTICAL THAT STORMS WILL INITIATE GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE LOWER LEVEL CAPPING INVERSION AND LACK OF A SOLID MOIST LAYER IN MODEL SOUNDINGS. HOWEVER AS TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EAST STRONG SUBSIDENCE WILL LEAD TO CLEARING FROM THE WEST TO THE EAST.
A NARROW REGION OF CONFLUENCE (PER 850 MB STREAMLINES) TO THE NORTH OF THE LOW, AIDED BY BROADER SCALE LIFT FROM UPR VORT ADVECTION HAS GIVEN RISE TO A LINE OF LGT/MDT SHRA IN FAR NORTHERN AL THIS EVENING.
347 AM PDT Mon Mar 23 2015 Relatively cool and unsettled weather will continue today and Tuesday before strong high pressure rebuilds by mid-week bringing a return of very warm and dry conditions. Showers occurring along the slow moving cold front continue to push southeastward out of the forecast area early this morning while additional showers associated with the upper trough move across northwest California.
WARMER AND DRY ON TUESDAY. IT WILL QUICKLY CHANGE TO SNOW AS THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE SATURATES AND COOLS. PUSHING THE PRECIPITATION INTO THE RIDGES LATER TONIGHT. THE SNOW WILL END OVER THE RIDGES. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL SLOWLY GET UNDERWAY ON TUESDAY AND LINGERING CLOUD COVER WILL DECAY AS WARMER AIR OVERSPREADS THE AREA. A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE WEST LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.
307 AM CDT MON MAR 23 2015 ANY LINGERING SPRINKLES IN SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES WILL PULL AWAY NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS UPPER TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST THROUGH MIDDLE TENNESSEE. HIGH TEMPS WARM INTO THE LOW TO MIDDLE 70S ON TUESDAY WITH LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT MILD AND IN THE 50S.
531 AM EDT MON MAR 23 2015 A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD ON TUESDAY BRINGING ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE REGION AND WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR MID WEEK.
638 AM EDT MON MAR 23 2015 ANOTHER PERIOD OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING, BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE TAKES CONTROL OF THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON, WITH COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SOON BUILD OVER THE REGION AND FINALLY DOMINATE THE WEATHER FOR A WHILE. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOW 20S OVER ONEIDA COUNTY TO THE LOW 30S OVER NORTHEAST PA.
WARMER AND DRY ON TUESDAY. PUSHING THE PRECIPITATION INTO THE RIDGES LATER TONIGHT. SNOW WILL END LATE TONIGHT OVER THE RIDGES. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL SLOWLY GET UNDERWAY ON TUESDAY AND LINGERING CLOUD COVER WILL DECAY AS WARMER AIR OVERSPREADS THE AREA. A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE WEST LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.
344 AM EDT MON MAR 23 2015 STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NEAR LABRADOR THROUGH TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
309 AM CDT MON MAR 23 2015 COLD FRONT PASSED WITH LITTLE FANFARE YESTERDAY EVENING WITH MOSTLY TRACE AMOUNTS IN EXTREME NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND NORTHWEST IOWA. SOME LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WERE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THROUGH 08Z. THE TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR THE UPCOMING WEATHER WAS ENTERING THE WEST COAST. AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES OFF THE FRONT RANGE TUESDAY.
A WEAK TROWAL ASSOCIATED WITH CYCLONIC FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS RESULTING IN CONTINUED -DZ/RA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH MEASURABLE PRECIP STILL BEING REPORTED AT JAN/HKS.
536 AM EDT MON MAR 23 2015 A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST ALONG A STALLED FRONT STRETCHING ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH MID WEEK THEN WARMING TREND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT LATE IN THE WEEK. POSITIVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES EARLY TODAY. SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS AHEAD OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH. RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES/EAST CANADA WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST AND EXTEND ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. WEAK FLAT RIDGE ALOFT ALONG THE EAST COAST WITH GENERAL SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER SOUTHEASTERN STATES.
1215 AM CDT MON MAR 23 2015 A COOL AND VERY DRY EAST FLOW OFF OF LAKE SUPERIOR HAS BEEN HELPING TO KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S AND LOW 30S OVER THE NORTHLAND AND A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WAS HELPING TO KEEP SKIES SUNNY. A BAND OF SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN CONTINUED ACROSS SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA.
DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER WILL RETURN LATER THIS WEEK. NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH DECENT UPPER LEVEL FGEN HAS BROUGHT A PERIOD OF RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN NEVADA.
215 AM EDT MON MAR 23 2015 STRONG RIDGING IS HOLDING FIRM ACROSS NRN MICHIGAN EARLY THIS MORNING. ONLY CLOUD COVER TO SPEAK OF ARE SOME HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE SW HALF OF OUR CWA ALONG THE NRN EDGE OF THE MOISTURE SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVING THRU THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AND WILL REMAIN SO AS THE LOW TRACKS THRU THE OHIO VALLEY. EXPECT ANOTHER MAINLY SUNNY DAY ACROSS THE NORTHWOODS AS HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR REMAIN THE RULE. TEMPS WILL BE ONLY SLIGHTLY WARMER TODAY.
1035 PM PDT Sun Mar 22 2015 Weather system bringing cooler and occasionally breezy to windy conditions to interior NorCal into Tuesday along with showers. Dry and much warmer weather is expected through the remainder of the week as strong high pressure returns. 2 to 4 inches of snow may fall over the Siernev over the higher elevations and have issued a late season snow advsry for zone 69 in the evening update. JHM Behind the surface cold front. the associated upper trough quickly follows overnight ushering in colder air. Up to around 8 inches is possible for Lassen Peak with generally 2 to 4 inches for the higher Sierra Nevada. Southwest wind gusts of 40 to 60 mph are possible over the higher mountain terrain through Monday.
ALONG WITH A THREAT FOR FREEZING RAIN FAR NORTHWEST. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH A POTENT S/WV TROUGH MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHWESTERN MINNESOTA. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE ROCKIES TONIGHT INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. THERE LOOKS TO BE A THREAT FOR FREEZING RAIN ACROSS MY NORTHWEST TONIGHT IF AIR TEMPERATURES COOL TO BELOW 32F AS MODELS SUGGEST.
The more moderate precipitation will be along a cold front that will slowly make its way north and east through the day today. The highest elevations could see a few inches of snow, though only impacting outdoor enthusiast in the backcountry. Another round of moisture will swing through central Idaho and southwestern Montana on the backside of the departing trough late Tuesday.
THIS LOW WILL TRACK QUICKLY NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY SENDING A WARM FRONT NORTHWARD INTO OUR AREA DURING THE DAY. HIGH CLOUDS OF VARYING OPACITY FROM THE SOUTHERN LOW WILL COVER THE REGION THROUGH THE NIGHT BUT THESE WILL EXIT TO THE EAST ON MONDAY AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY.
335 AM EDT MON MAR 23 2015 A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST ALONG A STALLED FRONT STRETCHING ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH MID WEEK THEN WARMING TREND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT LATE IN THE WEEK. POSITIVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES EARLY TODAY. SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS AHEAD OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH. RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES/EAST CANADA WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST AND EXTEND ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. WEAK FLAT RIDGE ALOFT ALONG THE EAST COAST WITH GENERAL SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER SOUTHEASTERN STATES.
153 AM EDT MON MAR 23 2015 A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.
650 AM EDT MON MAR 23 2015 STRONG RIDGING IS HOLDING FIRM ACROSS NRN MICHIGAN EARLY THIS MORNING. ONLY CLOUD COVER TO SPEAK OF ARE SOME HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE SW HALF OF OUR CWA ALONG THE NRN EDGE OF THE MOISTURE SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVING THRU THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AND WILL REMAIN SO AS THE LOW TRACKS THRU THE OHIO VALLEY. EXPECT ANOTHER MAINLY SUNNY DAY ACROSS THE NORTHWOODS AS HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR REMAIN THE RULE. TEMPS WILL BE ONLY SLIGHTLY WARMER TODAY.
359 AM CDT MON MAR 23 2015 UPPER CONVERGENCE BEHIND A DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH HAS LEFT WEAK RIDGING IN ITS WAKE OVER THE AREA. CONVERGENCE ALOFT AND WEAK NEAR SURFACE RIDGING WILL LEAD TO LIGHT EAST WINDS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STRETCH INTO THE LOWER 80S NEAR THE BEACH TO UPPER 80S INLAND.
409 AM CDT MON MAR 23 2015 THE REGION IS CURRENTLY SITUATED BETWEEN AN EXITING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER IOWA. AND AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN. HIRES MODELS SUGGEST THE LOW CLOUDS WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH MID MORNING BEFORE DISSIPATING. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN WILL TRACK NORTHEAST OF THE REGION TODAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS WHERE HIGHS SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE 50S AND 60S. ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT SHOULD RESULT IN HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO THE LOWER 40S AT BEST. MODELS AGREE WELL WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SPREADING WARM AIR ADVECTION SHOWERS OVER THE WESTERN CWA TONIGHT.
THE LOW LEVELS WERE FINALLY BECOMING SATURATED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS RADAR ECHOES WERE TURNING INTO LIGHT SNOW AT THE SURFACE. THE MODELS ALL STILL SHOW DIFFERENCES WITH NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MOVING INTO AND ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH THEIR SURFACE REFLECTIONS OF QPF. EXPECT WINDS TO BECOME SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND INCREASE INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON BRINGING IN WARMER AIR. LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND SLOWLY EAST THROUGH TUESDAY WITH THE LIFT FROM THE NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGHS.
134 AM EDT MON MAR 23 2015 ANOTHER SHORT PERIOD OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT, BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE TAKES CONTROL OF THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY, WITH COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. COLD AND DRY AREAWIDE FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT WITH GRADUAL CLEARING UNDER THE HIGH.
229 AM EDT MON MAR 23 2015 A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.
THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SOUTH OF FLORIDA HAS WEAKENED AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. THIS TROUGH COMBINED WITH DIVERGENCE ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH A 120 KNOT JET MAX OVER GEORGIA IS SUPPORTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SOUTHWEST FROM THIS LOW AND WILL PASS OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THROUGH THE DAY. AS THIS TROUGH CLEARS THE AREA LATE MONDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL RIDGE SOUTHWEST ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD INFLUENCING THE WEATHER FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. IT WILL FEEL A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAT WHAT WE HAVE SEEN OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS.
203 AM EDT MON MAR 23 2015 A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST ALONG A STALLED FRONT STRETCHING ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES. LOW PRESSURE WILL BE TRACKING SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. WE HAVE MAINTAINED THE HIGH POPS. EXPECT LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOWER 50S. HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S MAINLY EARLY IN THE DAY WITH TEMPERATURES LIKELY FALLING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS RIDGE STRENGTHENS TO THE NORTH.
409 AM CDT MON MAR 23 2015 MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS REMAINS JUST TO OUR NORTHWEST THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. BUT LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE DOMINATED BY STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST CONUS AND WEDGING ACROSS GA AND NORTHEAST AL. A COOL EASTERLY FLOW SHOULD PREVENT FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT AND BRING OVERNIGHT LOWS DOWN INTO THE LOWER 40S ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST. A COUPLE DAYS OF DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CONUS GIVING CENTRAL ALABAMA A EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND AND MID LEVEL RIDGING KEEPS THE STORM TRACK TO OUR NORTH.
BUT JUST ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IF THE WINDS BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY THEN THE LOW LEVEL WIND PROFILE MIGHT SUPPORT A SHORT LIVED FUNNEL CLOUD BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
THE FIRST UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH BROUGHT GUSTY WINDS AND EAST OF THE TEMBLORS AND DIABLO RANGE THIS EVENING. RADAR INDICATED A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM FRESNO COUNTY NORTHWARD WITH THE FIRST TROUGH. THE OTHER MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS FIRST TROUGH. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS TWO WEAK TROUGHS OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE REGION WITH THE FIRST OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA BRINGING MAINLY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO MAINLY THE SIERRA, HOWEVER AS THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH KERN COUNTY, TOPOGRAPHIC LIFT NEAR THE GRAPEVINE WILL BRING A THREAT OF SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION HERE TOO.
A SERIES OF WEAK WEATHER SYSTEMS WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION AND A CHANCE OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTH BAY TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY. A WARMING AND DRYING TREND WILL RESUME TUESDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER CALIFORNIA.
328 AM EDT MON MAR 23 2015 ANOTHER PERIOD OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING, BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE TAKES CONTROL OF THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON, WITH COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SOON BUILD OVER THE REGION AND FINALLY DOMINATE THE WEATHER FOR A WHILE. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOW 20S OVER ONEIDA COUNTY TO THE LOW 30S OVER NORTHEAST PA.
553 AM EDT MON MAR 23 2015 A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.
TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S ALONG THE ISLAND CHAIN AT THIS HOUR. A LOW AMPLITUDE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL PASS THE LOCAL AREA TONIGHT AS MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS NUDGES UPWARD. THE LOWER LEVELS WILL ACQUIRE A SOUTHEAST COMPONENT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFF THE SOUTHEAST AND FLORIDA COAST DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
146 AM EDT MON MAR 23 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD ON TUESDAY BRINGING ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE REGION. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME BRIEF SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN WITH THIS FEATURE HOWEVER DECIDED TO LEAVE OUT OF THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL SLIGHTLY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS AS COOLER AIR WORKS INTO THE FA. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARDS ON TUESDAY ALLOWING FOR SOME ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
635 AM EDT MON MAR 23 2015 STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NEAR LABRADOR THROUGH TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
OTHERWISE STALLED OUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY RETREAT NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT. WITH WARMER AIR SPREADING BACK INTO SOUTHERN KANSAS ON MONDAY. MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND CONVERGE INTO ELEVATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTH OF THE SURFACE WARM FRONT. AS THE COMBINATION OF STRONG UPPER DYNAMICS AND MID- LEVEL COOLING OVERSPREAD THE LOW-LEVEL MOIST AXIS.
COMPACT UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SLIDE THROUGH SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN WITH SOME CLOUD COVER CONTINUING TO LINGER OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. ITS ACCOMPANYING LOW WAS OVER KANSAS/NEBRASKA WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS. WITH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERING NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AROUND MIDNIGHT AND SPREADING SOUTH TOWARDS I-94 BY DAYBREAK MONDAY MORNING. AND INTO THE LOWER 60S IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST.
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WERE NEARLY THE SAME AS YESTERDAY WITH READINGS FROM THE MID 50S TO THE LOW 60S. NOT MUCH CHANGE THIS PERIOD AS MODELS SHOW WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
358 AM CDT MON MAR 23 2015 THE UPPER LOW JUST NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE SOUTHEAST TODAY. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH ACCUMULATION DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS DUE TO A WARMER LOW LEVEL AIRMASS (COULD ALSO BE MORE A RAIN/SNOW MIX AFTER NOON).
313 AM MDT MON MAR 23 2015 WIND IS THE BIG CONCERN OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS TODAY WITH A 70 KT JET ALOFT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TO 3 G/KG THIS AFTERNOON BUT CROSS SECTIONS SHOW MOISTURE STAYING MAINLY ABOVE 8000 FEET WHICH MAY BE INDICATIVE OF PRECIPITATION REMAINING HIGH-BASED AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES THIS EVENING.
405 AM CDT MON MAR 23 2015 SFC ANALYSIS AT 09Z HAS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ARKLATEX AND E TX. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS A DEPARTING TROUGH OVER THE MID SOUTH WITH A WEAK RIDGE UPSTREAM MOVING OVER TX. A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES THROUGH MID WEEK. BY THUR THE GFS/ECMWF/CMC DEVELOP AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN WITH RIDGING OVER CALIFORNIA AND A TROUGH FROM LAKE MICHIGAN TO THE S PLAINS. THIS PATTERN SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA BY THU MORNING AND THEN OFF THE COAST DURING THE DAY.
WEAK FRONTAL ZONE DRAPED ACROSS THE NORTH GULF IS THEN EXPECTED TO DRIFT NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT TUESDAY WHICH MAY FOCUS SOME MARITIME MOISTURE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS NEAR THE COAST DURING THE DAY TUESDAY.
423 AM CDT MON MAR 23 2015 SHORT WAVE TROUGHING MOVING ACROSS THE ROCKIES TODAY WILL BEEF UP SURFACE LEE TROUGHING.
THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO PROVIDE FOR INCREASED WINDS OVER THE RIDGES AND BELOW THE MOUNTAIN PASSES THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
COLD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH TODAY WILL BRING A THREAT OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ACROSS THE IDAHO MOUNTAINS BUT CAN/T RULE OUT A STORM OVER OREGON AFTER 10 AM PDT.
MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS REMAINS JUST TO OUR NORTHWEST THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. BUT LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE DOMINATED BY STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST CONUS AND WEDGING ACROSS GA AND NORTHEAST AL. A COOL EASTERLY FLOW SHOULD PREVENT FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT AND BRING OVERNIGHT LOWS DOWN INTO THE LOWER 40S ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST. A COUPLE DAYS OF DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CONUS GIVING CENTRAL ALABAMA A EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND AND MID LEVEL RIDGING KEEPS THE STORM TRACK TO OUR NORTH.
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH TODAY. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL RETURN FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. A LOW AMPLITUDE TROF IS MOVING INTO THE GREAT BASIN EARLY THIS MORNING AND IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE CWA DURING THE DAY. THIS WAVE SENDS A COLD FRONT THRU NRN/CENTRAL UT TODAY PASSING SLC AROUND MID MORNING WITH A BAND OF PRECIP ACROSS THE NORTH. A SECOND SHORT WAVE SENDS A WARM FRONT THRU NRN UT TUE MORNING THEN A COLD FRONT THRU THE ENTIRE CWA TUE NIGHT. PRECIP WITH THE WARM FRONT WILL BE LIMITED TO AREAS MAINLY NORTH OF ABOUT I-80 AND ANY SUPPORT FOR SHOWERS ALONG THE COLD FRONT QUICKLY WANES ONCE IT REACHES CENTRAL UT.
314 AM EDT MON MAR 23 2015 ANOTHER PERIOD OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING, BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE TAKES CONTROL OF THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON, WITH COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SOON BUILD OVER THE REGION AND FINALLY DOMINATE THE WEATHER FOR A WHILE. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOW 20S OVER ONEIDA COUNTY TO THE LOW 30S OVER NORTHEAST PA. COLD AND DRY AREAWIDE FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT WITH GRADUAL CLEARING UNDER THE HIGH.
VERY WARM CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY IN SPITE OF WEAK COLD FRONT MAKING ITS WAY INTO NORTHERN SECTIONS THIS MORNING. STRONGER COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY WILL RESULT IN SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS THAN THOSE OF TODAY.
UPPER TROUGH SLIDING SE OF THE AREA EARLY IN THE PERIOD.
AN ACTIVE SUBTROPICAL JET AND A VERY SLOW EASTWARD MOVING UPPER LOW THAT WILL BE SENDING DISTURBANCES OUR WAY.
357 AM CDT MON APR 13 2015 TODAY WILL BE COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS IT MIGHT EVEN FEEL NICER THAN YESTERDAY DESPITE BEING 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER. BUT THE SOUTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO KEEP LOWS ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK. STILL LOOKING AT THE DEVELOPMENT OF BREEZY CONDITIONS AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE CWA TIGHTENS UP BETWEEN A DEPARTING HIGH AND A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DRAPED THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS. AND CONFIDENCE REMAINS ON THE LOWER SIDE DUE TO MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH HOW THINGS EVOLVE.
1210 AM CDT MON APR 13 2015 FOR 06Z TAFS /ISSUED 959 PM CDT SUN APR 12 2015/ CURRENT TRENDS IN SURFACE DATA SUGGEST THAT WARM FRONT HAS NOW LIFTED NORTHWARD THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. MODELS DEPICT ONLY VERY WEAK SYNOPTIC SCALE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF A MID-LEVEL WAVE CURRENTLY LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
345 AM CDT MON APR 13 2015 A WINDY START TO THE WORK WEEK FOLLOWING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LAST NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE GENERALLY MILD TODAY DESPITE THE COLD FRONT.
WE COULD END UP A LITTLE WARMER. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE RAINFALL TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL ATTEMPT TO MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH THE STATE TONIGHT.
424 AM CDT MON APR 13 2015 CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS EXTENDS A COLD FRONT FROM NORTHERN IOWA SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE TEXAS PANHANDLE WHILE H5 ANALYSIS PLACES THE MIDSOUTH UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW. SANDWICHED BETWEEN RIDGING TO OUR EAST AND A CLOSED LOW CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO. SHOWERS WILL BEGIN LATER THIS MORNING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE REGION AND COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT WILL ACT TO ENHANCE PRECIPITATION. EARLIER MODEL RUNS INDICATED A CLOSED UPPER LOW MOVING OVER THE REGION THIS WEEKEND.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE INCREASING MONDAY IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. LIGHT WINDS IN DRY AIR MASS DUE TO RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR CLEAR SKIES AND SOME COLD TEMPERATURES IN THE U20S-L30S MOSTLY ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM. MOST LOCATIONS WILL BE STAYING ABOVE FREEZING OVERNIGHT.
433 AM EDT MON APR 13 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST OF THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY.
407 AM EDT MON APR 13 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST OF THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY.
609 AM EDT MON APR 13 2015 WARM AND INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR WILL STREAM INTO THE REGION TODAY ON A GUSTY SOUTHWEST WIND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
OVER SE WISCONSIN WITH MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL WI WITH STRONG FRONTOGENETIC RESPONSE TO SURFACE AND MID LEVEL TROUGHS.
649 AM EDT MON APR 13 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SOME SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRY AIRMASS WILL RETURN TO THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL KEEP TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT DRY.
409 AM CDT MON APR 13 2015 UPPER FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO UPPER LOW AIDED BY WEST TEXAS MCV. MENTIONED UPPER LOW STILL PROGD TO LIFT OUT TOMORROW AND GIVE ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS.
UPPER LEVEL LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR HELPING ALONG THE MCS IS MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND WILL SLOWLY TURN NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND WEAKEN/OPPEN UP AS IT BEGINS TO BECOME ABSORBED IN THE FLOW BY LATE TUESDAY. SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS A MESO HIGH BEHIND THE DEPARTING MCS WITH A COLD FRONT WELL TO OUR NORTH AND A TROUGH LINE ACROSS THE LEE OF THE SIERRA MADRES. THEREFORE WILL HAVE TO LOOK WEST TOWARDS THE HIGHER TERRAIN FOR ANY CONVECTION INITIATION.
412 AM MDT MON APR 13 2015 A COUPLE OF WARM DAYS UPCOMING AS A BROAD TRANSITORY RIDGE TODAY GIVES WAY TO STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH ON TUESDAY.
A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS PROGRESSING EASTWARD THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS. A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN FAR WESTERN MN. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 60S BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. THE GULF IS MOSTLY CLOSED OFF FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND THE MULTITUDE OF WAVES RIDING NEAR THE NORTHERN CONUS AND SOUTHERN CANADIAN BORDERS CAN ONLY MANAGE TO DRAG MAINLY DRY COLD FRONTS THROUGH MN/WI. AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED.