Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
A nearly stacked low pressure system remains over northern Minnesota and is producing scattered snow showers across area. This low will finally begin to push eastward into the Great Lakes region on today. There may still be a little lingering light snow in the northwest by the late morning hours, with dry conditions elsewhere with high pressure at the surface and aloft.
Upper air and satellite data show zonal flow in place across the area today, set up between areas of low pressure spinning over MN and digging into the Great Basin region. At the surface, high pressure has been gradually building in from the northwest, bringing an overall downward trend in the WNW winds. No big surprises with temperatures, reaching into the lower-mid 50s at 3 PM. There hasn't been any notable change in the models, which still show weak upper level ridging over the central CONUS in between the two main upper lows, which are located over the Great Lakes region and NV/UT area by Wednesday night. As far as temperatures go, Wednesday highs look to be similar/perhaps just a touch cooler in spots, with lower-mid 50s forecast.
The high tide this am looks like a flat crest towards sunrise. That said, slow moving cold front will continue to approach and push into the area, triggering scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms throughout the TAF period.
412 AM EDT Wed Apr 14 2021 The primary weather features in the short term are going to be a trough of low pressure aloft, and its surface cold front, that will be moving through the region today and tonight. A secondary and weaker cold front may also move through behind the initial front this afternoon. The showers will become widespread as the cold front advances across our area, with the time of highest rain chances being from roughly 15Z this morning through late this afternoon. With extensive cloud cover and precip on tap today, and with colder air expected to begin moving into the area late today behind a departing cold front, todays highs will likely be a few degrees below normal around the area.
356 AM EDT Wed Apr 14 2021 High pressure will move offshore on Wednesday. Low pressure approaches from the west late today into tonight.
Said winds, combined with some earlier mid to high level clouds across southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa have likely kept temperatures from really tanking, but still seeing widespread readings in the lower to mid 30s as of 3 AM, with some spots in northeast Nebraska in the upper 20s.
229 AM EDT Wed Apr 14 2021 Weak high pressure will keep fair and tranquil weather in place through today.
323 AM EDT Wed Apr 14 2021 Weak mid level ridging over the central Gulf of Mexico and surface ridging holding over northern Florida this morning will keep warm and stable conditions in place today. With weak winds and dew points in the low 60s, some patchy fog will be possible over the interior early this morning, then temperatures will warm back up into the mid to upper 80s this afternoon under mostly sunny skies.
Otherwise, passages of weak disturbances in zonal flow aloft pattern aloft along with a weak surface cold front remaining positioned across deep south will result in increasing development of scattered to numerous light showers as day progresses, especially during afternoon hours when upper level flow expected to be most developmentally supportive. Ridging influences will build into mid state region from the west as late night hours tonight progress.
1036 PM MDT Tue Apr 13 2021 Broad upper level troughing will dominate most of the period, supporting below normal temps with unsettled and breezy conds at times. Double barrel upper low over the northern CONUS is supporting cool, breezy and mostly cloudy conds over much of the region today. Eastern closed low will pull away Wed, with the western CONUS trough slowly beginning to progress east. This will allow for much less wind Wed, with slightly warmer temps. Western CONUS trough will shift east Wed as a northern stream upper trough phases across the northern plains, allowing for an overall slow progression of low heights over the region.
Further west over the northern Pacific into British Columbia an Omega blocking ridge in place. Currently, a weak cold front is slowly sagging south into the area. The northerly breeze may pick up and keep temps slightly warmer further south than would be ideal for frost conditions to set up but still very reasonable with temperatures in the ranges expected for frost headlines. Temperatures during the day will be cooler with the colder air settling in keeping high temps in the mid 50s to around 60 over east central areas.
/Issued 945 PM EDT Tue Apr 13 2021/ High pressure and dry conditions will persist through tonight. Associated cold front drops into north Georgia during the day tomorrow and slowly sinks south and east into central Georgia Wednesday night.
130 AM EDT Wed Apr 14 2021 Dry high pressure will prevail through Wednesday.
SR Chattanooga Airport, TN 74 49 66 43 68 / 70 50 0 0 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 72 48 63 40 65 / 60 60 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 70 46 63 39 66 / 70 50 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 71 46 60 37 63 / 70 60 10 0 0.
406 AM EDT Wed Apr 14 2021 A ridge will remain in place from the Plains to northern Ohio today. Meanwhile low pressure over the Upper Great Lakes will move to the eastern Great Lakes by tonight, pulling a cold front east across the area.
Dry weather will prevail on Thursday as high pressure builds into the area.
Upper ridging will become established across the region for late in the week, extending into the weekend.
315 AM PDT Wed Apr 14 2021 A low pressure system will move into the Great Basin, strengthening the onshore flow across southern California, as well as deepening the marine layer through today with periods of stronger and gusty west winds in the mountains and deserts. There will be patchy drizzle, and even light rain along the lower coastal mountain slopes and foothills into this morning.
Conditions will improve from the northwest in the afternoon as a cold front moves in. At the surface, a cool relatively dry airmass remains over the area with a warm front extending from east TX to the MS coast and a cold front moving into far northwest MS. As the mid level system approaches, increasing low level flow out of the Gulf northward overtop the warm front will lead to elevated convective development over LA at sunrise, building east into the area through the morning. In these areas, mainly a hail threat will exist, although a damaging wind threat will also exist to the west and south near the approaching warm front. The mid level wave will pass to the east during the afternoon as the cold front continues moving south.
635 AM CDT Wed Apr 14 2021 For the 14/12Z TAF update, an active weather situation is ongoing as a warm front bisects our airspace in a line generally from KTYR to KELD. /Today through Thursday/ Approaching 4am this morning, a warm front bisects the majority of the Ark-La-Tex with northeast and southeast surface winds generally converging along or just near the I-30 corridor.
Light returns on radar continue From Medicine Lake to the Warners as the low pressure center continues to spin over SE Oregon and N Nevada. Offshore high pressure and a thermal trough along the Oregon coast will maintain gusty north winds and steep to very steep seas into early Thursday morning. Skies are starting to clear across the Medford CWA this evening in the wake of a short wave rotating around an upper low. The low will move out to the south and east tonight and the flow aloft will turn northerly as a high amplitude long wave ridge moves toward the west coast. The exception will be along the coast and over the coastal waters, where a strengthening thermal trough will bring increasing winds and increasingly onshore flow will keep the temperatures down.
At this time, the eastern part of the cold front that had reached near the Coastal Plains is now moving back northwest and approaching the I-35 corridor while the western part remains over southern parts of the Rio Grande Plains. The highest POPs with a threat of strong storms will mainly be across the Hill Country into Central Texas where the strongest forcing and greatest elevated instability will be. Temperatures will be much cooler and well below normal due to cold advection under cloudy and rainy skies on Thursday.
/issued 323 AM EDT Wed Apr 14 2021/ Weak mid level ridging over the central Gulf of Mexico and surface ridging holding over northern Florida this morning will keep warm and stable conditions in place today. With weak winds and dew points in the low 60s, some patchy fog will be possible over the interior early this morning, then temperatures will warm back up into the mid to upper 80s this afternoon under mostly sunny skies.
The upper low will move east through far northern WI this morning, then shift to the eastern Great lakes by Thursday. There could also be some patchy freezing drizzle over Vilas County late tonight, due to north flow picking up moisture off Lake Superior.
High temperatures will struggle to reach the freezing mark where snow remains on the ground, with highs in the lower to middle 30s elsewhere. Looking into tonight, lows will fall into the lower to middle 20s across the Devils Lake Basin and into the northern Red River Valley, with upper 20s to the south and east. For Thursday, partial clearing is expected, but will be rather slow due to the upper low still circulating to our east. Warmer highs in the upper 30s to upper 40s will accelerate snow melt for many areas.
1034 AM EDT Wed Apr 14 2021 High pressure centered to the east of Florida supports moderate east breezes across the coastal waters of the Florida Keys. From synopsis, high pressure over the Florida Peninsula today will retreat into the western North Atlantic for the rest of this week.
1025 AM EDT Wed Apr 14 2021 Low pressure and its associated cold front will move across the area Thursday afternoon.
There is an upper level low over Nevada currently bringing moisture to our southern areas. Additionally, moderate winds continue for the Lower Snake plain and Eastern Magic Valley. As the low moves east expect snow to move more north making it into the Snake Plain early this morning. Some models are suggesting the low to drift slightly north in addition to just moving east.
Another weak disturbance aloft will phase just enough with the closed low over the Great Lakes to generate light precip across the Ohio Valley today. Thursday morning, mild mid-level ridging sits centered over the CONUS with areas of low pressure over the eastern Great Lakes and northern Rockies.
The culprit is a occluded low pressure over the Upper Mississippi Valley that will begin to slowly move off to the east and into the Great Lakes. This will allow the high pressure centered over Hudson Bay to extend southward into the Northern Plains and dry weather to prevail starting tonight. Temperatures will increase into the low to mid 40s today, mid-30s tonight, and into the low 50s on Thursday.
An upper low pressure system formed overnight and is now settling into the Great Basin. As surface heating takes place and mixing occurs, winds will become breezy again this afternoon from the northeast, mainly in the Lower Columbia Basin and some adjacent valleys.
Said winds, combined with some earlier mid to high level clouds across southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa have likely kept temperatures from really tanking, but still seeing widespread readings in the lower to mid 30s as of 3 AM, with some spots in northeast Nebraska in the upper 20s. Said near-freezing temperatures remain the main forecast concern heading into Thursday morning given little change in the pattern before then.
310 AM MDT Wed Apr 14 2021 Current surface analysis shows low pressure over the northern Great Lakes, with winds finally starting to ease up across the region. High pressure is located across southwest Canada. Upper low to the west will settle over the Great Basin today, then start to slowly move east tonight through late week.
Further west over the northern Pacific into British Columbia an Omega blocking ridge in place. Currently, a weak cold front is slowly sagging south into the area. The northerly breeze may pick up and keep temps slightly warmer further south than would be ideal for frost conditions to set up but still very reasonable with temperatures in the ranges expected for frost headlines. Temperatures during the day will be cooler with the colder air settling in keeping high temps in the mid 50s to around 60 over east central areas. Expect that the day crew will be able to assess what areas saw freezing tonight and get a better handle on cloud coverage to draw up more targeted areas this afternoon for Thursday morning.
With high pressure in place, sunny skies will prevail for much of the day Thursday before increasing clouds late in the afternoon. The next chance for precipitation comes Thursday night as a slow moving upper level trough moves into the western High Plains.
I also raised the high temperatures a few degrees for the southern half of the CWA that is now south of the front. At this time, the eastern part of the cold front that had reached near the Coastal Plains is now moving back northwest and approaching the I-35 corridor while the western part remains over southern parts of the Rio Grande Plains. The highest POPs with a threat of strong storms will mainly be across the Hill Country into Central Texas where the strongest forcing and greatest elevated instability will be. Temperatures will be much cooler and well below normal due to cold advection under cloudy and rainy skies on Thursday.
604 AM CDT Wed Apr 14 2021 Water vapor satellite this morning shows the persistent upper level low continues to spin over northeast Minnesota. The low has been drifting to the east and this will continue, allowing the low to become centered over northern lower Michigan tonight. Some short wave troughs will continue to rotate around the upper level low with the RAP suggesting the most impactful ones for the local area will move across early this morning and then again late this afternoon into the evening.
High pressure over the region will maintain clear skies and dry weather through the coming weekend.
618 AM EDT Wed Apr 14 2021 This afternoon an approaching upper trough and cold front will begin returning moisture to the area with chances of rain this evening through Thursday afternoon.
As for rain chances, an upper level low will remain centered across the Intermountain West, placing the forecast area in west southwest flow aloft.
As high pressure begins to build into the area today through Thursday, mountain showers will begin to taper off and make way for more calm and warmer weather as an upper level ridge pushes into the Pacific Northwest through the early weekend. These mountain showers are expected to diminish by Thursday, as an upper level ridge begins to push into the Pacific Northwest.
748 AM EDT Wed Apr 14 2021 High pressure will move offshore today. Low pressure approaches from the west late today into tonight.
subtle height rises are progged for today across the High Plains with continued light northeast low level flow across the region.
1011 AM EDT Wed Apr 14 2021 A ridge will remain in place from the Plains to northern Ohio this afternoon. Meanwhile low pressure over the Upper Great Lakes will move to the eastern Great Lakes by tonight, pulling a cold front east across the area.
A rather brief rain event will mainly affect areas of se MO /wrn KY this morning as another weak H50 short wave zips eastward through the lower/mid MS River Valley, beneath a closed upper low drifting east through the Great Lakes region. A ridge of high pressure will then begin to build southeast from southern Canada into the upper Midwest and mid/upper MS River Valley regions tonight and on Thursday. Double barrel upper lows look to rotate east into the MS River Valley region over the weekend.
Weak high pressure will become centered just to the east of Florida providing an east to southeast wind, which will increase by late morning to early afternoon once the sea breeze develops and moves inland. Winds will be east around 10 KT this morning before veering to the southeast and increasing to 10-15 KT by early afternoon as the weak high pressure settles just east of Florida.
Even with the more northerly track of the short wave today, we still expect the upper low to move right across the area tonight, and then slowly pull east of the area through Thursday.
These will continue to move into the area through the morning as low pressure develops along the front and propagates eastward. The longwave pattern will amplify a bit, as a closed upper low moves into the central Rockies.
For the 14/12Z TAF update, an active weather situation is ongoing as a warm front bisects our airspace in a line generally from KTYR to KELD.
722 AM EDT Wed Apr 14 2021 A ridge will remain in place from the Plains to northern Ohio today. Meanwhile low pressure over the Upper Great Lakes will move to the eastern Great Lakes by tonight, pulling a cold front east across the area.
This recent high degree of forecast uncertainty has likely been impacted by the larger-scale close low pressure center that has been retro-grading into the great basin. It is ever-so-slightly still connected to the general low pressure trough from the great basin, but at the same time is transitioning to be also connected to the low pressure trough now descending from our north. Upper ridging will become established across the region for late in the week, extending into the weekend. PATTERN: Pesky snow showers in a slowly-changing low pressure system do not seem to want to let go.
324 AM MDT Wed Apr 14 2021 An upper level low is centered over northern NV this morning, with easterly flow bringing areas of light snow to southern MT. The low will move eastward today and as it approaches our area, mid- level winds will turn more east/southeasterly.
At the surface, high pressure will briefly strengthen just east of the region this morning before being shunted to the southeast this afternoon. A cold front across the Southeast will slide southward to central Georgia by daybreak on Thursday. The pressure gradient will increase today due to the strengthening high pressure, with south to southwest winds prevailing. There is a chance that showers could move into interior southeast Georgia before daybreak on Thursday ahead of the cold front. Overnight lows will be mild in the low to mid 60s.
519 AM MDT Wed Apr 14 2021 Overview: An atypical synoptic pattern -- characterized by westerly flow aloft over the southern CONUS (< 35N) and two broad upper level lows over the northern CONUS (>35N) -- will prevail in this period. on the western/subsident periphery of an upper level low over the Upper Great Lakes. and the far eastern periphery of an upper level low meandering slowly eastward from NV into UT. in advance of the aforementioned upper low. With surface temperatures/ wetbulbs anticipated to be above freezing. Thu-Fri night: Guidance is in general agreement that the approaching upper low will continue to meander in an eastward direction on Thu and Fri. with an associated lee cyclone progressing eastward from NM into the Southern Plains. the evolution of the lee cyclone.
Satellite imagery shows a closed upper level low pressure system situated over northern Nevada.
340 AM PDT Wed Apr 14 2021 A closed low will bring a chance of light showers to the high Sierra through Wednesday. Cooler air will lower temperatures to near normal on Wednesday then a warming trend is expected to raise them to well above normal by the weekend. Satellite images show a closed upper low over the Great Basin. The system is over land and lacks a source of moisture but appears very dynamic with disturbances moving around the upper low. The low will track slowly eastward with cyclonic flow will remain over the sierra.
528 AM MDT Wed Apr 14 2021 Current surface analysis shows low pressure over the northern Great Lakes, with winds finally starting to ease up across the region. High pressure is located across southwest Canada. Upper low to the west will settle over the Great Basin today, then start to slowly move east tonight through late week.
Sat imagery shows high cloud moving over parts of the area, that has mitigated stratus development at the lower levels and resulting in high MVFR/low VFR conditions most terminals. Temperatures will be at least a few degrees warmer than yesterday though, with highs in the 50s and 60s across the Permian Basin and Lea county, 70s west of the Pecos River, and 80s to lower 90s through the Rio Grande Valley. There looks to be a lull late this afternoon into this evening, before precipitation chances ramp up later tonight into Thursday ahead of a trough approaching from the west. Temperatures Thursday will be slightly warmer than today, though still below normal with highs ranging from the 60s across the Permian Basin to the upper 70s and 80s along and west of the Pecos River, and 90s through the Rio Grande Valley.
503 AM MDT Wed Apr 14 2021 Overview: An atypical synoptic pattern -- characterized by westerly flow aloft over the southern CONUS (< 35N) and two broad upper level lows over the northern CONUS (>35N) -- will prevail in this period. on the western/subsident periphery of an upper level low over the Upper Great Lakes. and the far eastern periphery of an upper level low meandering slowly eastward from NV into UT. in advance of the aforementioned upper low. With surface temperatures/ wetbulbs anticipated to be above freezing. Thu-Fri night: Guidance is in general agreement that the approaching upper low will continue to meander in an eastward direction on Thu and Fri. with an associated lee cyclone progressing eastward from NM into the Southern Plains. the evolution of the lee cyclone.
952 AM EDT Wed Apr 14 2021 High pressure will move offshore today.
1037 AM CDT Wed Apr 14 2021 Some lightning is seen in observational data along with colder cloud tops on IR band across the southern portion of the Texas Panhandle into the low rolling plains east of Lubbock.
Satellite imagery shows a weak short wave trough over northern Mexico that will move into the Brush Country by late afternoon/early evening. Surface convergence along a weak trough axis/sea breeze boundary will provide focus for convective development this afternoon over the Victoria Crossroads and northern Coastal Bend. Effective shear will range from 30-40 knots, at the higher end over the Victoria Crossroads.
255 PM EDT Wed Apr 14 2021 Rain chances will remain south of Pittsburgh today, with widespread rain possible on Thursday with crossing low pressure. Light, widespread rain is expected to continue in that region through tonight as a cold front is stalled due to its relative position in an occluding low pressure system. Vorticity advection associated with the aforementioned low pressure will arrive aloft in the region Thursday morning, aiding iso/sct shower development, with the highest chance being near I80 and in higher terrain with an upslope component.
A cold front is moving southeast out of north Mississippi and west Tennessee into Middle Tennessee and north Alabama, another reinforcing front is approaching the Midsouth from the north. Dry weather will prevail on Thursday as high pressure builds into the area.
243 PM MDT Wed Apr 14 2021 Overview: An atypical synoptic pattern -- characterized by westerly flow aloft over the southern CONUS (< 35N) and two broad upper level lows over the northern CONUS (>35N) -- will prevail in this period. on the western/subsident periphery of an upper level low over the Upper Great Lakes. and the far eastern periphery of an upper level low meandering slowly eastward from NV into UT. in advance of the aforementioned upper low. With surface temperatures/ wetbulbs anticipated to be above freezing. Thu-Fri night: Guidance is in general agreement that the approaching upper low will continue to meander in an eastward direction on Thu and Fri. with an associated lee cyclone progressing eastward from NM into the Southern Plains. the evolution of the lee cyclone.