Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1037 AM CST WED NOV 4 2015 LARGE BREAK IN THE MORNING STRATUS HAS RESULTED IN TEMPERATURES SOARING INTO THE LOWER/MID 70S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION AS OF 10 AM. /ISSUED 148 AM CST WED NOV 4 2015/ CLOUDY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THIS MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES AVERAGING IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE MID 70S TODAY WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS NORTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA TONIGHT AS A SURFACE BOUNDARY AND UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE ENTIRE COLUMN COOLING SO FREEZING RAIN IS NOT A CONCERN. AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN JUST THE WARM SIDE OF FREEZING. AN INCH OR TWO MOST AREAS TO THREE IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN NORTHEAST OF BISMARCK.
ADDITIONAL MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION AS PACIFIC MOISTURE INCREASES AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROF OUT WEST. /ISSUED 1037 AM CST WED NOV 4 2015/ LARGE BREAK IN THE MORNING STRATUS HAS RESULTED IN TEMPERATURES SOARING INTO THE LOWER/MID 70S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION AS OF 10 AM.
1234 PM EST WED NOV 4 2015 UNSEASONABLY WARM WITH HIGH PRESSURE INTO THURSDAY.
ESPECIALLY ACROSS NW AREAS AS A PORTION OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SW U. THEN SHWRS AND TSTMS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS IN THE AFT/EVE AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES.
359 PM CST WED NOV 4 2015 UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER NEVADA WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION TONIGHT. AMPLE BULK SHEAR WILL KEEP THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE FOCUS SHIFTS MORE FROM DIURNALLY DRIVEN TO DYNAMICALLY DRIVEN AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES. AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST. IT PUSHES A COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE PANHANDLES THURSDAY NIGHT. AS WELL AS TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW THE FREEZING MARK ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN/WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE.
403 PM EST WED NOV 4 2015 DRY AND UNSEASONABLY MILD WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PUSH EAST.
WITH COLD TEMPS MOVING IN AND MORE ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF TROUGH TO OUR WEST. A WINTER STORM WATCH STARTS EARLY THIS EVENING FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WITHIN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY AND ACROSS THE UPPER GUNNISON RIVER VALLEY. A STRONG TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT HAVE MOVED ACROSS THE REGION. AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THE MAIN TROUGH WILL PASS OVERHEAD WHICH WILL ALSO TURN THE OROGRAPHIC WIND DIRECTION AROUND TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE WANING THURSDAY EVENING AS THE TROUGH MOVES DOWNSTREAM.
HIGH TEMPERATURES SO FAR HAVE RISEN INTO THE LOW/MID 70S WITH SE WINDS IN THE 5-10 MPH RANGE. WITH A PROGRESSIVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN/INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. AND UPPER RIDGING OVER FLORIDA. THE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED STORM SYSTEM OUT WEST CONTINUED TO PRODUCE A VARIETY OF WEATHER. THE WEATHER ON THU SHOULD FEATURE MORE WARMER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS RISING INTO THE MID/UPPER 70S.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE REGION AS A TROUGH AMPLIFIES ON THE WEST COAST. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ADVECT IN THE WARMER TEMPS AND MOISTURE TO KEEP THE CLOUD COVER THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
The warm conveyor precip from the approaching western CONUS trough should begin to move into our area toward 12z. forcing for ascent should increase as height falls and upper cooling spread over the warm sector with the ejecting trough.
DIVERGENCE AND WEAK VORTICITY ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER TROF WAS PRODUCING MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THE TROF AXIS IS CURRENTLY JUST TO OUR WEST AND WILL SLIDE EAST OVER OUR REGION THIS EVENING WHICH WILL BRING AN END TO OUR PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT.
Otherwise, the primary Upper Level Low is evident on water vapor imagery this afternoon, moving out of California and Nevada towards Arizona. Models still indicate this low will fill and weaken as it moves towards the Southern Plains on Thursday, Best lift from it reaches the western sections of the area from Sweetwater to San Angelo to Ozona by around sunrise, and then shifts quickly east across the area. Can not rule out a stray severe storm, especially in the east, where warmer afternoon temperatures will lead to better instability values. 07 (Thursday Night through Wednesday) By Thursday night the axis of the upper trough will be east of the forecast area and the associated Pacific front will be exiting our eastern counties.
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE WEAKENING AND MOVING EAST TOMORROW. LOWS TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S INLAND TO AROUND 70 ALONG THE COAST. HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOW AND MID 80S.
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW TODAY BRINGING A SHORT PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER FOR MOST LOCATIONS. THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BE A MOIST TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
1249 PM EST WED NOV 4 2015 WEDGE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA WILL BREAK THURSDAY AS THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND.
Upper level southwest flow was firmly in place with trough continuing to amplify over the Great Basin and southern Rockies as it slides east.
1115 AM EST WED NOV 4 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN WARM AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH THURSDAY. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE THEREAFTER WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. H500 RIDGE AXIS PASSES BY TODAY. LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE UNIFORMLY WARMER ACROSS THE AREA WITH MORE CLOUDS AND WIND.
MAY SEE 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW ALONG THE PINE RIDGE FROM LUSK TO JUST SOUTH OF CHADRON AS WELL.
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTHEAST. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM.
MODELS KEEP THIS PRECIP GOING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE LOW PRESSURE TRACKS EWRD. THIS WILL FILL IN AS THE DAY PROGRESSES AS THE NEXT SHOT OF ENERGY ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND MOVES OVERHEAD PROVIDING MORE LIFT. THE STRONG COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH YESTERDAY WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP OVERNIGHT WITH SOME SNOW EXPECTED ON VALLEY FLOORS. THURSDAY THE UPPER TROUGH DROPS ONTO THE PLAINS. THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON SO FAR POURS INTO THE REGION WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES 10-15 BELOW NORMAL AND HARD FREEZES OVERNIGHT FOR EVEN THE LOWEST ELEVATIONS. WEST WINDS REMAIN BRISK OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
1238 PM EST WED NOV 4 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
This activity will be primarily related to warm air and moisture advection in the warm sector ahead of the cold front with the best chances for thunderstorms being across south central Missouri. Through Mid day into early evening Thursday a cold front will push east towards the region with a line of thunderstorms expected to develop along the front in the best area of frontal forcing.
1129 AM CST WED NOV 4 2015 ALOFT: A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED WRN USA TROF/ERN USA RIDGE WAS IN PLACE WITH SW FLOW OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS. WITH THE ENTIRE WRN TROF SHIFTING E. GRI: 78 IN 1909 (FCST HIGH: 75) HSI IS IN THE LOW 80S AND NOT CLOSE. AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON THURSDAY. THE MODELS ARE FINALLY IN A LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT BRINGING THE TROUGH THROUGH THE AREA. THE COLD FRONT IS THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE MORNING SO ANY PRECIPITATION THAT DEVELOPS NEAR THE COLD FRONT WILL BE FURTHER EAST.
THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT LARGE UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE WESTERN CONUS. WITH BROAD RIDGE ACROSS THE EAST. CHANCES OF PRECIP WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AS UPPER TROUGH SWINGS NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION. AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE ACROSS UPSLOPE-ENHANCED AREAS OF THE BLACK HILLS AND PINE RIDGE. UPPER WAVE EXITS THE AREA THURSDAY AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN AT THE SURFACE.
251 PM EST WED NOV 4 2015 UNSEASONABLY WARM WITH HIGH PRESSURE INTO THURSDAY.
329 PM EST WED NOV 4 2015 A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT AND SLOWLY DISSIPATE THROUGH THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID- ATLANTIC STATES SHIFTS OFF THE COAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY CLIMB INTO THE LOW- MID 80S WITH SOME BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER THIS AFTERNOON.
DRY WEATHER AND WARMER WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
256 PM EST WED NOV 4 2015 WEDGE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA WILL BREAK THURSDAY AS THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND.
1233 PM EST WED NOV 4 2015 UNSEASONABLY WARM WITH HIGH PRESSURE INTO THURSDAY.
BTL FROST AND FREEZING CONDITIONS AS WELL AS FOG AND LOW CLOUDS THIS MORNING ARE ALL SLOWLY DISSIPATING. THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM DUE IN ON THURSDAY IS LIKELY TO YIELD A SOMEWHAT WARMER NIGHT TONIGHT.
A MID LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE FLORIDA KEYS TO WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST AND AWAY FROM SOUTH FLORIDA TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY ON THURSDAY KEEPING THE DRIER AIR IN PLACE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA ALONG WITH THE EASTERLY WIND FLOW.
WHAT LIGHT SNOW IS OUT THERE WILL SHIFT TOWARD THE EASTERN HIGHLANDS TONIGHT AS THE TROUGH OVER THE STATE SHIFTS EASTWARD. WE ARE ALSO LOOKING FOR SNOW TO INCREASE ALONG THE BENCHES AND PERHAPS ON THE PLAIN FLOOR ALONG THE HIGHWAY CORRIDOR FROM AMERICAN FALLS TO ASHTON. THE WESTERN RANGES IN THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND THE UPPER SNAKE HIGHLANDS WILL SEE THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS OF SNOW.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE AREAS WEATHER WITH DRY CONDITIONS TODAY. DUE TO THE LOW PROBABILITY AT THOSE SITES, HAVE USED VCSH. A WEAK UPPER RIDGE WILL NOSE EAST INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TODAY.
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER ALONG AND JUST OFFSHORE THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL PROVIDE A CONTINUED EASTERLY WIND FLOW. RIDGE AXIS REMAINS TO OUR NORTH WITH EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. AS MODELS INDICATE SOME COOLING ALOFT ON BACKSIDE OF MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE GULF. RIDGE ALOFT SHIFTS SOUTH AND EAST INTO THIS WEEKEND AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. BOTH THE GFS/EURO NOW SUGGEST WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND PASS TO OUR NORTH.
242 PM EST WED NOV 4 2015 CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES TWO LONGWAVE FEATURES WITH A TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND A RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. THERE IS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEYS. A HIGH PRESSURE IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC WITH A STATIONARY BOUNDARY ALONG THE GULF COAST STRETCHING EASTWARD OFF THE GA/SC COAST. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED SIGNIFICANTLY TODAY UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE. THE LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS HAS KEPT CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT DRIZZLE/FOG THROUGHOUT THE DAY TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA.
1131 AM CST WED NOV 4 2015 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS AND RECENT WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A LARGE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS FAIRLY BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE ALLOWING CONTINUED MODEST SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. HAVE LOWERED HIGHS SLIGHTLY IN OUR IOWA COUNTIES BUT FEEL ENOUGH MIXING AND SUNSHINE SHOULD STILL ALLOW MOST READINGS TO REACH THE LOWER TO MID 70S THIS AFTERNOON. FOCUS THIS EVENING TURNS TO APPROACHING COLD FRONT WHICH SHOULD APPROACH OUR FAR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES AROUND 03Z.
1021 AM PST WED NOV 4 2015 A weak upper level disturbance will move across the area Thursday resulting in the possibility of light snow accumulations mainly over the higher terrain of the Panhandle.
MID-LEVEL CLOUDS EXTENDING OVER THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST SHOULD REDUCE DAYTIME HEATING AND SLOW THE EROSION OF THE LOWER CLOUD DECK.
Overnight lows tonight under mostly clear skies will be in the low to mid 50s.
High pressure returns Tuesday resulting in dry and mild weather for the remainder of the week. Additional snowfall accumulations today are expected to only be around an inch or two at the higher elevations.
BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL SUPPORT SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. A STRONG TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH TODAY. THIS HELPED PRODUCE PLENTY OF PRECIPITATION YDAY AND PUSHED A COLD FRONT THROUGH OVERNIGHT. TEMPS WILL BE COOLER TODAY AND TOMORROW. WITH THE TROUGH AXIS PASSING THROUGH THE CWA TODAY. WINDS WILL SLACKEN OFF TONIGHT AS RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD IN ALOFT.
749 AM EDT MON MAR 14 2016 LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN TENNESSEE WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH TONIGHT. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ROTATING AROUND THE LOW WILL CROSS THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
1148 AM EDT MON MAR 14 2016 UPDATE/MARINE AS LOW PRESSURE LEAVES LOWER MICHIGAN LIGHT RAIN WILL DIMINISH TODAY. SHOWERS AND PERHAPS THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE COOLER WEATHER MOVES BACK IN FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. ABOVE OUR NORMAL HIGHS IN THE LOW 40S. WE SHOULD SLOWLY RISE INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S BY LATE AFTERNOON. REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS SHOWERS DIMINISHING SLOWLY IN AREAL COVERAGE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AS LOW PRESSURE NEAR BEH MOVES NORTHEAST. MOST OF THE SHOWERS WILL BE GONE BY THE AFTERNOON BUT LEFT A SLGT CHC POP IN TO COVER THE PASSING OF THE UPPER TROUGH. SFC AND UPPER DYNAMICS WILL INCREASE FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUE EVENING AS A STRONG UPPER TROUGH PUSHES EASTWARD ACROSS ILLINOIS/INDIANA. GIVEN THE INVERTED NATURE OF THE TROUGH.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL SWING ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TODAY.
LIKELY DO TO THE SOMEWHAT COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WITH MUCH WARM AIR ALOFT KEEPING THE INVERSION IN PLACE. AFTER A WEAK SHORT WAVE RIDGE MOVES BY TODAY. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TONIGHT AND INTO THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS ON TUESDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS BY THIS EVENING LEADING TO A STRONGER LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER SOUTH TEXAS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE TO SCEC BY THIS EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER THE PLAINS AND CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES.
A BROAD WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND OUR AREA. GIVEN THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE DEEP LAYERED RIDGE AND SCANT MOISTURE BELOW 850 MB. PLENTY OF INSOLATION WITHIN A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 80S ACROSS MOST ISLAND COMMUNITIES.
847 AM EDT MON MAR 14 2016 UPPER LOW CHURNING THROUGH NORTHWEST TENNESSEE WILL SLIDE INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. AS A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN CONUS AND WINDS SHIFT BACK TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION. THIS FEATURE BEING PUSHED ALONG WITH A 140 KNOT JET NOSING INTO THE UPPER OH VALLEY ALONG THE BASE OF A NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH. A STRONG CLOSED LOW SETS UP OVER THE UPPER PLAINS WITH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH SETTING UP ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. WITH THE SOUTHERN JET STREAM BECOMING ACTIVE AND THE NORTHERN STREAM DISPLAYING A BLOCKING PATTERN.
/issued 337 AM CDT MON MAR 14 2016/ Flat ridge with zonal flow in the upper levels will give way to a broad upper trough over the center of the country Tuesday. Additional lobes of the trough will rotate down keeping the area in a fairly consistent pattern aloft through the rest of the week. By this weekend a ridge will strengthen over the western US with the region on the east edge of it. Have continued the High Wind Warning this afternoon for the Guadalupe Mountains with a Wind Advisory for the surrounding plains.
DRY WEATHER AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THIS WEEK.
COLD FRONT LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. WEAK WARM FRONT MOVES IN TUESDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER WEDGE OF WARM LOW LEVEL AIR AHEAD OF THE TRAILING COLD FRONT. OPERATIONAL MODELS DIFFER ON THE TRACK AND EVOLUTION OF THE PARENT UPPER LEVEL LOW DROPPING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS/NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. AND WOULD MAKE THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT A MORE SIGNIFICANT PLAYER AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY AND THROUGH THE MOUNTAINS IN TERMS OF SHOWERS/CONVECTION. NAM IS SLOWER WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW.
WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE WARMER MAV AND ECMWF TEMPERATURES AS THE MET GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO UNDERDO THE EXPECTED HIGHS TOO MUCH.
ON THE SURFACE THIS IS REPRESENTED BY A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE STATE WITH DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW OVERRUNNING THE WEDGE OF RELATIVELY COOL AND STABLE AIR THAT IS NOSING DOWN INTO THE REGION FROM THE HIGH OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE NEXT WAVE ALOFT THAT IS TRIGGERING A VIGOROUS SQUALL LINE OVER WESTERN TENN WILL CONTINUE TO CLIMB THE RIDGE AND MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY.
1219 PM EDT MON MAR 14 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE MARITIMES TODAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE METROPLEX BY MID MORNING TUESDAY. MULTIPLE COLD FRONTS AND VARIOUS CHANCES OF RAIN. WHICH SHOULD SEND A COLD FRONT SOUTH THROUGH NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS ALSO ON TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY FALL SLIGHTLY AS THE WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY.
WEAK SECONDARY TROUGH AXIS MOVING INTO PANHANDLE LIKELY TO PROVIDE EXTRA SUPPORT FOR LIFT.
DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW OVERRUNNING THE SHALLOW WEDGE OF RELATIVELY COOL AND STABLE AIR THAT IS NOSING DOWN INTO THE REGION FROM THE HIGH OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE NEXT WAVE ALOFT /OVER NW TENN THIS MIDDAY/ WILL CONTINUE TO CLIMB THE RIDGE AND MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY.
HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S WEST TO LOWER 60S NORTHEAST. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A SECONDARY TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST FOR LATE IN THE WEEK AND THE START OF THE WEEKEND. THE GFS IS FASTER IN DROPPING THE LOW THAN THE EURO WITH THE CANADIAN CLOSER TO THE GFS BUT FASTER STILL. A 70-90KT JET MOVES ACROSS THE PLAINS BUCKLING INTO SW IOWA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS A THROUGH DEVELOPS FROM THE LOW DROPPING DOWN.
A WEAK MID LVL THERMAL TROF PUSHING ACRS THE NRN PENINSULA HAS DROPPED H50 TEMPS TO -10C/-12C. GENTLE TO MODERATE SW BREEZE AS A RIDGE AXIS OVER THE FL STRAITS INTERACTS WITH A FRONTAL TROF PUSHING ACRS THE DEEP SOUTH.
The upper low was centered in NE AR early this morning. Short range guidance suggests the coverage may increase some this morning in southwest and south central IL as the low moves quickly east-northeast and remain spotty elsewhere.
AND TUESDAY LIGHT RAIN WILL DIMINISH OR END OVER EASTERN WISCONSIN THIS MORNING AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH DEPARTS TO THE EAST. A WEAKENING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER MINNESOTA AND FAR NORTHWEST WISCONSIN WILL SETTLE INTO NORTHWEST THIRD OF THE STATE. BUT LITTLE EXPECTED AS THE 850 RIDGE BUILDS TONIGHT. FOG COULD BE AN ISSUE AGAIN TONIGHT UNDER THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE. NEXT SIGNIFICANT CHANCE OF RAIN ASSOCIATED A WARM FRONT AHEAD OF A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FORM THE NORTHERN PLAINS. ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN AREAS CLOSER TO THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE. ELEVATED STORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT MAY REACH PARTS OF CENTRAL WISCONSIN TUESDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE ANTICIPATE BEST THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS STARTING TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE DEEPENING MID LEVEL TROUGH REACHING WESTERN WISCONSIN. MODEL CAPE LOW BUT TOTAL TOTALS IN THE LOWER 50S.
HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD ALONG THE WEST COAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
944 AM EDT MON MAR 14 2016 A COMPLEX AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY PUSH EAST ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT BEFORE SLIDING OFF THE EAST COAST ON TUESDAY.
739 AM EDT MON MAR 14 2016 WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL DRAG A WARM FRONT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA EARLY TODAY.
The remaining locations still reporting low visibilities are within the river/creek valleys in parts of Northeast Oklahoma and also parts of the higher terrain locations of far Northwest Arkansas.
903 AM EDT MON MAR 14 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE MARITIMES TODAY.
ALONG WITH A TROUGH COMING ASHORE IN WA/BC. LOWS WERE NOTED BENEATH THE UPPER LOW AS WELL AS IN SOUTHEAST WI.
A WEAK TROUGH IN PLACE ACROSS THE STATE WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA TODAY WITH A MID LEVEL TROUGH PASSING BY WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE STATE AND THE UPPER JET SHIFTING EAST OVER THE STATE AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL BUILD BACK ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA TONIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH SOME DRIER AIR MOVING IN AND FLOW ALOFT BECOMING ZONAL.
BREEZY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE TROUGH IN CONJUNCTION WITH LOW SURFACE DEW POINTS WILL RESULT IN CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN NORTHEAST COLORADO AND PARTS OF EXTREME NORTHWEST KANSAS. AS THE UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH TONIGHT ISOLATED SHOWERS/HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP MAINLY IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA.
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE TRENDS THIS MORNING PLACE A COMPACT UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NORTHEAST ARKANSAS. AT THE SURFACE A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ARKANSAS AND NORTHERN LOUISIANA. THE UPPER LEVEL OVER NORTHEAST ARKANSAS WILL WEAKEN AND BECOME AN OPEN MID LEVEL TROUGH AS IT MOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. A FEW LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST TENNESSEE INTO THE AFTERNOON ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. RAIN FREE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN BEHIND THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW INTO TUESDAY. WRF/GFS/ECMWF MODELS INDICATE A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MID SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT.
AS A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN CONUS AND WINDS SHIFT BACK TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION. THIS FEATURE BEING PUSHED ALONG WITH A 140 KNOT JET NOSING INTO THE UPPER OH VALLEY ALONG THE BASE OF A NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH. A STRONG CLOSED LOW SETS UP OVER THE UPPER PLAINS WITH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH SETTING UP ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. WITH THE SOUTHERN JET STREAM BECOMING ACTIVE AND THE NORTHERN STREAM DISPLAYING A BLOCKING PATTERN.
MARKING THE WHEREABOUTS OF THE STRONG AND COMPACT UPPER LOW THAT WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE STORMS YESTERDAY. WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AREA. SOME LOCATIONS IN SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS MAY EVEN MAKE IT TO THE LOW 80S.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.
1008 AM EDT MON MAR 14 2016 STEADIER SHOWERS WILL BE TAPERING OFF A MORE HIT AND MISS VARIETY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXITS TO THE EAST.
EARLIER MODEL RUNS SHOWED THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN U. THE UPPER TROUGHING WILL STAY CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN TIER AND WILL ELONGATE WEST TO EAST. WITH SOME WEAK RIDGING IN PLACE.
1032 AM MDT MON MAR 14 2016 THE MAIN THING TO WATCH FOR TODAY WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS SPREADING INTO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. ALONG WITH A PASSING BAROCLINIC BAND AND COLD FRONT WILL HELP INCREASE SNOW COVERAGE OVER OUR SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES.
Water Vapor loops depict the upper Low rotating over Northern Arkansas. Isolated thunderstorms/heavy rain are possible, but the mdt risk of rainfall exceeding FFG remains to the south of the Low track, i. This should be followed by dry wx, despite the SPC issued day 2 marginal risk, as the moisture associated with the next low pressure system looks to stay just to our north (in the slgt risk zone).
738 AM EDT MON MAR 14 2016 AVIATION AS LOW PRESSURE LEAVES LOWER MICHIGAN LIGHT RAIN WILL DIMINISH TODAY. SHOWERS AND PERHAPS THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE COOLER WEATHER MOVES BACK IN FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS SHOWERS DIMINISHING SLOWLY IN AREAL COVERAGE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AS LOW PRESSURE NEAR BEH MOVES NORTHEAST. MOST OF THE SHOWERS WILL BE GONE BY THE AFTERNOON BUT LEFT A SLGT CHC POP IN TO COVER THE PASSING OF THE UPPER TROUGH. SFC AND UPPER DYNAMICS WILL INCREASE FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUE EVENING AS A STRONG UPPER TROUGH PUSHES EASTWARD ACROSS ILLINOIS/INDIANA. GIVEN THE INVERTED NATURE OF THE TROUGH.
Quieter weather will return this week as high pressure builds across the West and provides drier and warmer conditions to the region. After this system passes, we will return to a quieter and drier weather pattern as a ridge of high pressure amplifies over the eastern Pacific and west coast.