Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
145 PM EST THU JAN 22 2015 HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN LATE TODAY.
1247 PM EST THU JAN 22 2015 A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING IN SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. BEFORE AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTH MAY BRING A WINTRY MIX TO AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER BY FRIDAY EVENING. PATCHY DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE HAS JUST ABOUT ENDED THIS MORNING. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S NORTH TO THE UPPER 30S FAR SOUTH. HAVE GENERALLY GONE WITH A MIX BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS IN TERMS OF PLACEMENT/TRACK OF THE LOW.
FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT -- MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AS LOW- LEVEL WARM THERMAL ADVECTION INCREASES SOUTH OF THE EVOLVING WAVE CYCLONE TRANSITING THE NORTHERN GULF COAST REGION.
300 PM CST THU JAN 22 2015 A LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH WILL TRAVERSE THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. WITH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THIS AREA FALLING FROM NEAR 40 THIS AFTERNOON TO THE LOW TO MID 30S TONIGHT. ALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL END BY MID MORNING FRIDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES EASTWARD.
255 PM EST THU JAN 22 2015 LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST FRIDAY WILL MOVE RAPIDLY NORTHEAST.
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 1103 AM EST THU JAN 22 2015 AN UPPER-LEVEL COMPOSITE ANALYSIS THIS MORNING REVEALS A DEEP LAYER MEAN ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN BASIN. THE SYSTEM TILTS NORTHWARD WITH DECREASING ELEVATION SUCH THAT THE LOWER- TROPOSPHERIC CENTER IS LOCATED BETWEEN SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS. A BROAD CONTINENTAL RIDGE COVERS MOST OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN UNITED STATES. WHILE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AMIDST INCREASING GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT FALLS IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN APPROACHING SHORT- WAVE TROUGH FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE IN THE PROCESS OF FRESHENING THANKS TO THE INCREASING GRADIENT FLOW BETWEEN DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GULF AND THE RIDGE TO ITS EAST.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A RIDGE HAS SPRUNG BACK OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL START TO BUILD OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. SOME HIGH LAYER CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER IMPRESSIVE LOOKING SYSTEM WEST OF 140W WILL SPILL OVER THE RIDGE FROM TIME TO TIME TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
239 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015 UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A TROUGH IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EMBEDDED IN A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER MOST OF THE U. THE OVERALL PATTERN INTO THIS WEEKEND WILL CONTINUE TO BE DOMINATED BY NW MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW TOWARD THE NRN GREAT LAKES BETWEEN A TROUGH OVER ERN NOAM AND A PERSISTENT RIDGE OVER THE ERN PACIFIC. A TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE SW CONUS RESULTING IN A TRANSITION TO SW FLOW TOWARD THE WRN GREAT LAKES. WINDS BACKING TO SW AS THE HIGH SHIFTS INTO THE OH VALLEY WILL PUSH ANY LINGERING LES OFFSHORE.
THIS ALONG THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS INTO EAST TEXAS AND ADJACENT NORTHWEST LOUISIANA WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE FOUR STATE REGION. ALONG AND OUT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH PRECIPITATION WILL BE OCCURRING AS MOSTLY SNOW WITH A WINTRY MIX OVER EASTERN PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN. MUCH OF THE SNOW WILL SEE SOME MELTING WITH WARM GROUND TEMPERATURES BUT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS DROPPING BELOW FREEZING.
THEY ARE COMING IN WITH A MIX OF SLEET/FREEZING RAIN AND RAIN AS OF 16Z. VERTICAL PROFILERS VIA UAH HERE IN HUNTSVILLE SHOW TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PROFILE AT/BELOW FREEZING CURRENTLY. TEMPERATURES ACROSS NORTHERN ALABAMA AND S TN ARE HOLDING AROUND FREEZING WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW/MID 20S. EXPECT THE ENTIRE PROFILE TO BE BELOW FREEZING.
AN ASCD WARM FRONT EXTENDING EWD FROM THE LOW OVER THE FL PENINSULA TO THE SPACE COAST WL CONTINUE TO LIFT NWD THIS EVENING. AS THE LOW PRES APCHS N FL OVERNIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW WL INCREASE BECOMING BREEZY AFTER MIDNIGHT FOR THE COAST. THE LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK RAPIDLY E/NE ACROSS N FLORIDA AND OFFSHORE PAST MIDNIGHT. THE AIRMASS CHG ASCD WITH PSG OF THE LOW WILL BE MINIMAL UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY AND HIGHS IN THE 70S AND EVEN 80S SOUTH ARE FORECAST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT DESPITE THE CLOUD COVER. RIDGE TO THE NE WITH WRM S FLOW DEVELOPING INTO MID WEEK. WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE N TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP 15 TO 20 KT E FLOW AND LESS THAN IDEAL BOATING CONDITIONS ACROSS COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THEN THE POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT FOG AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT SLATED INTO THE AREA BEFORE SUNRISE THURSDAY. THE UPPER LOW THAT CAUSED ALL THE RAIN/SLEET/AND SNOW EARLIER THIS MORNING IS NOW OPENING UP AND LIFTING OUT AWAY FROM THE AREA QUICKLY. WINDS WILL BE VERY LIGHT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT TONIGHT. ONCE THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
448 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015 LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA THIS EVENING WILL TRACK NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA COAST LATE TONIGHT.
Highs will be cooler on Thursday with cold air advection and increased cloud cover.
114 PM MST WED FEB 25 2015 COLD FRONT JUST ENTERING SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHWEST AND CLEAR THE FORECAST AREA BY MIDNIGHT.
Stratus will develop behind a cold front Thursday morning, and have MVFR ceilings at the KMAF and KHOB terminals after 10Z.
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 126 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015 LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OFF LAKE ONTARIO INTO NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY SHOULD WEAKEN INTO TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.
CURRENT RADAR LOOP SHOWS LIGHT ECHOES NOW MOVING INTO SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE, ALTHOUGH TEMPS ACROSS THE MID STATE ARE FOR THE MOST PART SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING. TEMPS UPSTREAM WHERE IT HAS ALREADY BEEN PRECIPITATING ARE RIGHT AROUND FREEZING, SO BELIEVE MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WE SEE THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE SNOW.
129 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015 LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES TO OUR SOUTH LATE TONIGHT. COLD FRONT WITH SNOW SHOWERS LATE THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT.
343 PM CST Wed Feb 25 2015 (Tonight and Thursday) A broad upper trough will encompass much of the CONUS the next 24 hours. An embedded short wave will drop south across the Northern and Central Plains this evening and will send another strong cold front across the area after midnight. Highs on Thursday will range from the mid 30s across northern counties, to the lower 40s elsewhere.
1152 AM EST WED FEB 25 2015 A LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER QUEBEC WILL PASS NORTH OF THE REGION TODAY. THIS LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL BRING ANOTHER ARCTIC COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION TODAY ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY AND WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. COLD FRONT MOVING INTO ST LAWRENCE VALLEY WITH SOME SCT SNOW SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING IT. SOUTHERLY WINDS AND CLOUD COVER HELPING TO KEEP TEMPERATURES MUCH WARMER THAN THEY WERE 24 HOURS AGO. EXPECTING A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
251 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015 CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING THROUGH THE PRAIRIE PROVINCES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES LOW TO THE EAST OF HUDSON BAY WITH RIDGE OFF THE WEST COAST BRINGING FAST NORTH/NORTHWEST FLOW TO OUR AREA. FRIGID AIRMASS WITH THE HIGH WILL BRING TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS BELOW ZERO OVER MOST LOCATIONS WHICH.
110 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015 AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE ACROSS FLORIDA TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST COAST LATER THIS EVENING INTO EARLY THURSDAY. THIS LOW WILL BRING YET ANOTHER THREAT OF WINTRY WEATHER TO PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST.
1153 AM EST WED FEB 25 2015 AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE ACROSS FLORIDA TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST COAST LATER THIS EVENING INTO EARLY THURSDAY. THIS LOW WILL BRING YET ANOTHER THREAT OF WINTRY WEATHER TO PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST.
TEMPERATURE INVERSION WAS ELEVATED BETWEEN 900 AND 4000 FEET AND THE FREEZING LEVEL WAS LOCATED NEAR 12300 FEET.
1025 AM MST WED FEB 25 2015 BAND OF LIGHT RAIN/SNOW IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF A SMALL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW.
HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER 20S WITH LOWS TONIGHT AROUND 10 DEGREES. SYSTEM WILL BRING DECENT ACCUMULATIONS TO PARTS OF IOWA AND ILLINOIS BUT LOSE A LOT OF ITS IMPACT AS IT SHIFTS EAST AND SOUTH AS ENERGY BECOMES ABSORBED IN TROUGH TAKING SHAPE ACROSS THE SE US. SREF PLUMES SUGGESTS 1 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA WHICH ISN'T COMPLETELY OUT OF THE REALM OF CHANCE BUT WITH MAIN WAVE DROPPING SE VS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THINK CHANCES ARE ON THE LOW SIDE RIGHT NOW.
WE CAME IN A BIT WARMER ALOFT THAN EXPECTED. AS BHM WOULD WET BULB SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW FREEZING AS LONG AS ANY PRE-PRECIP WARMING IS NOT TOO DRAMATIC. BUT WITH WARMER TEMPS ALOFT AND COOLER SURFACE WET BULBING.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW FREEZING IN MOST OF BRYAN. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING STRONG AND GUSTY NORTH WINDS TO ALL TERMINALS BEGINNING AROUND 02Z.
1245 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015 LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES TO OUR SOUTH LATE TONIGHT. COLD FRONT WITH SNOW SHOWERS LATE THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT.
WILL GO WITH A BLEND OF THE MOS GUIDANCE THURS NIGHT AS THE NAM IS WARMER THAN THE GFS FOR LOWS THURS NIGHT.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA AFTER 00Z. TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW FREEZING IN MOST OF BRYAN. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING STRONG AND GUSTY NORTH WINDS TO ALL TERMINALS BEGINNING AROUND 02Z.
1256 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL PASS EAST OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON BRINGING ANOTHER COLD NIGHT.
850 THERMAL TROUGH WILL BE IN PLACE WITH 925 TEMPS -17C TO -19C.
THE CORE OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ENDED UP TRACKING JUST SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR AND THAT IS THE LOCATION WHERE THE DYNAMIC COOLING WAS GREAT ENOUGH TO OVERCOME THE LAYER OF WARM AIR NEAR 5000FT BEFORE THE BRUNT OF THE PRECIP ENDED. SO FAR THE HIGHEST REPORT WAS OVER 3. OR NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THROUGH THE NEXT 2 TO 3 HOURS.
1122 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015 UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED LIGHT PRECIP WILL RAPIDLY MOVE EWD AND OUT OF THE AREA IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
433 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE MARITIMES TONIGHT.
1221 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015 A LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER QUEBEC WILL PASS NORTH OF THE REGION TODAY. THIS LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL BRING ANOTHER ARCTIC COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION TODAY ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY AND WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. COLD FRONT MOVING INTO ST LAWRENCE VALLEY WITH SOME SCT SNOW SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING IT. SOUTHERLY WINDS AND CLOUD COVER HELPING TO KEEP TEMPERATURES MUCH WARMER THAN THEY WERE 24 HOURS AGO. EXPECTING A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
339 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015 TODAYS SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE EASTWARD ALONG THE I-80 CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN THURSDAY TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REBOUND INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AT MOST LOCATIONS. WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. WITH A BROAD POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS. AND A SECONDARY TROUGH MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM ALBERTA THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST.
315 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015 UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A TROUGH IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EMBEDDED IN A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER MOST OF THE U.
HAVE BEEN RECEIVING REPORTS OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN WITH A LITTLE SNOW. LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS MAY OCCUR FOR THE SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN ACROSS NORTH MS THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON UNTIL THE PRECIPITATION CHANGES TO ALL SNOW. MOSTLY LESS THAN 1/2 INCH OF SLEET AND LESS THAN 1/10 INCH OF FREEZING RAIN. COLDER AIR ALOFT IS FORECAST TO PUSH INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CHANGING THE PRECIPITATION TO ALL SNOW. WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS AS YOU GO SOUTH.
/ISSUED 1122 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015/ UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED LIGHT PRECIP WILL RAPIDLY MOVE EWD AND OUT OF THE AREA IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
SOME LOCATIONS NORTH OF HWY 29 IN NORTHCENTRAL WI ALONG WITH PARTS OF SOUTHEAST MN WILL REACH THE LOWER -20S FOR WIND CHILLS FOR A FEW HOURS BY THU MORNING. THU NIGHT COULD BE A DIFFERENT STORY WHEN IT COMES TO COLD WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE PLAINS. LONG WAVE WEST COAST TROUGH DEEPENS FOR THE START OF THE NEW WORK WEEK. LOW PRESSURE TRACKING OVER SOUTHERN IOWA AND MISSOURI BORDER WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE LIGHT SNOW AT BOTH TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON.
AT THIS TIME WE ARE FORECASTING THAT THE TEMPERATURE OF THE ROADS WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING AND THE PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL BE TOO LIGHT TO CAUSE PROBLEMS. THIS WILL ALLOW MORNING LOWS TO DIP BELOW FREEZING ALL AREAS. A 20-35 DEGREE WARMUP IS ON TAP AS RIDGING PUSHES IN FROM THE PACNW AND MOST OF THE DAY IS SUNNY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE GREATER THAN 32F/FREEZING BELOW 7-8K FT MSL TODAY.
REST OF FORECAST ON TARGET AS COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SHIFT SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. THE PRECIP SHOULD TAPER OFF BY MID MORNING AND WE WILL SEE DECREASING CLOUDS MOVE SOUTH AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT AS THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG SOUTHEASTWARD. WINDS WILL DECREASE AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH MOVES DOWN INTO WESTERN ND. THE COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THROUGH THURSDAY WITH HIGHS JUST ABOVE ZERO.
258 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015 A ARCTIC COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF VERY COLD AIR. ARCTIC COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT.
THE LOWER CEILINGS IN -SHRA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT 15Z ON THURSDAY WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT THROUGH THE DAY BUT ANOTHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
236 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015 AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE ACROSS FLORIDA TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST COAST THIS EVENING INTO EARLY THURSDAY. THIS LOW WILL BRING YET ANOTHER THREAT OF WINTRY WEATHER TO PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST.
201 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015 A ARCTIC COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF VERY COLD AIR. ARCTIC COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT.
1127 AM EST WED FEB 25 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL PASS EAST OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON BRINGING ANOTHER COLD NIGHT.
220 PM MST WED FEB 25 2015 COLD FRONT JUST ENTERING SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHWEST AND CLEAR THE FORECAST AREA BY MIDNIGHT.
VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL TROF NEARING THE ARKLATEX WITH AN ATTENDANT POOL OF UPPER LEVEL COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE QUICKLY AND LIFT TO NEAR MEMPHIS BY SUNDOWN. THE CONTINUING GOOD NEWS IS SURFACE TEMPS WILL BE TOO WARM FOR ANY ACCUMULATIONS OF WINTRY MIX AND A BIT WARM FOR BRIDGE WORRIES. RAINS WILL TAPER OFF WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH PASSAGE OF THE TROF. THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS IN A VERY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN AND WE ARE LOOKING AT A DRY COLD FRONT THAT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN MISSOURI MOVING DOWN AND INTO THE COASTAL WATERS BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON THURSDAY.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. A TRAILING COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SAG NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF THE KEYS ON THURSDAY NIGHT.
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AN ACTIVE DAY TODAY AS A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED ACROSS THE STATE AND SOME SNOW HAS BEEN ONGOING. WITH FRESH SNOW COVER MANY AREAS WILL STRUGGLE TO GET ABOVE FREEZING.
LOOKS LIKE THE ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BEGIN IN A FEW HOURS AS THE RAIN COOLED AIR HAS TIME TO GET DOWN TO OR BELOW FREEZING. THIS LOW CENTER HAS AN ABUNDANT AMOUNT OF GULF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT AND WILL PUSH IT ACROSS GA THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE PRESSING SOUTH INTO THE LOWER 58 STATES THIS AM. MAY BE ABLE TO NUDGE BACK UP PAST FREEZING OVER SOUTHERN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON.
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL LEAD TO GUSTY NORTH WINDS. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE COAST EARLY THIS EVENING. SOUTH OF IT SOUTHEAST WINDS AND TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 70S.
Temperatures are running warmer than previously forecast along the Hi-Line and cooler than previously thought in the southwest MT valleys.
GIVEN THE HIGHER LATE FEBRUARY SUN ANGLE. TEMPERATURES WILL FEEL WARMER. WARMER AIR MASS STILL ON TAP FOR MONDAY AND EVEN WITHOUT GREAT MIXING WE SHOULD BE QUITE A BIT WARMER THAN TODAY.
1041 AM CST Sun Feb 22 2015 High pressure trying to build into the region from the Northern Plains this morning with a cold airmass in place.
THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO RESULT IN BREEZY CONDITIONS OVER THE NORTH BAY AND COOLER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION.
DARMOFAL TODAY & TONIGHT: ARCTIC HIGH SPREADING SE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS IS TEAMING WITH LOW PRESSURE POSITIONED OVER THE AZ/NM BORDER TO PRODUCE INCREASING ISENTROPIC ASCENT IN 280-295K LAYER OVER GENERALLY THE WESTERN HALVES OF KS AND OK.
314 PM CST SUN FEB 22 2015 CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES COLD HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING OVER THE DAKOTAS INTO EASTERN MINNESOTA. WHILE RIDGE REMAINS OFF THE WEST COAST. STILL SOME QUESTION ON HOW LONG IT WILL TAKE THE WARMER AIR TO REACH THE EASTERN CWA WHERE WIND CHILL ADVISORY CONTINUES. A MUCH MILDER DAY IS EXPECTED WITH WARMER AIRMASS SETTLING IN. HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE ACROSS THE EAST PACIFIC/BAY OF ALASKA AND LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS PATTERN IS CONDUCIVE TO FREQUENT ARCTIC OUTBREAKS FOLLOWED BY BRIEF PERIODS OF RETURN FLOW AND WARMER TEMPERATURES. MONDAY WILL BE THE FIRST PERIOD OF RETURN FLOW AND WARMER TEMPERATURES.
1132 AM CST Sun Feb 22 2015 High pressure trying to build into the region from the Northern Plains this morning with a cold airmass in place.
1015 AM MST SUN FEB 22 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL STALL JUST SOUTH OF THE UTAH BORDER TODAY.
ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND BRITISH COLUMBIA WILL ALLOW FOR UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND RISING HEIGHTS TO EXPAND ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TONIGHT CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL NOT BE AS COLD AS LAST NIGHT AS LEE- SIDE TROUGHING WILL DEVELOP LATE ALLOWING FOR A RETURN SOUTHWEST SURFACE FLOW. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ALONG WITH A WESTERLY WIND MONDAY WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO WARM BACK INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S EXCEPT ACROSS THE FAR EAST WHERE READINGS WILL HOLD BACK INTO THE LOWER 30S.
MODEL DIFFERENCES REMAIN IN QUANTITY AND PLACEMENT WITH THE NAM HAVING THE HIGHER AMOUNTS.
SHARP U/L RIDGE PERSISTS ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE U. POSITIVELY TILTED L/W TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE CONUS. A COLD FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA TONIGHT AS THE FRONT BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE U/L ZONAL FLOW OVER THE REGION.
306 PM EST SUN FEB 22 2015 AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY.
915 AM PST SUN FEB 22 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING CLOUDS.
COLD FRONT WILL BE THRU THE VCT AREA AROUND 02Z. COLD FRONT LOOKS LIKE IT STALLED JUST ON OUR DOORSTEP. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGE SHOWS AN INFLUX OF MOISTURE OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST. APPROACHING MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL PROVIDE A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN BRUSH COUNTRY ALSO. NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO SCA BEGINNING WITH THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE AROUND 06Z MONDAY.
1110 AM EST SUN FEB 22 2015 A COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST OF THE REGION TODAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD TONIGHT AND IN THE LOWER SINGLE POSITIVE DIGITS. FOR TOMORROW AND OTHER THAN THE AFOREMENTIONED SNOW, HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW BY EVENING. HIGHS WILL STILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL AND HAVE GONE WITH THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE WITH UPPER TEENS TO LOW TWENTIES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY.
945 AM PST SUN FEB 22 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING CLOUDS.
254 PM CST SUN FEB 22 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO BOTTOM OUT EARLY. AS THE HIGH CONTINUES SOUTH WE GET INTO SOUTHWEST FLOW/WARM ADVECTION.
WITH COOLER AND POSSIBLY UNSETTLED WEATHER MOVING BACK INTO THE GREAT BASIN BY THE END OF THE WEEK. WITH COOLER AND POSSIBLY UNSETTLED WEATHER MOVING BACK INTO THE GREAT BASIN BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
THAT ACTUALLY APPEARED TO PULL NORTH AS A WARM FRONT EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON. AND TEMPERATURES THAT STRUGGLED TO ACHIEVE THE LOWER 50S. THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THIS AIR MASS (COLD FRONT) NOW PUSHING SOUTHWARD INTO THE HILL COUNTRY. ALONG WITH A BLAST OF LOW LEVEL SUB FREEZING AIR REACHING THE CENTRAL FA BY TOMORROW NIGHT.
WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING AND SATURATED SNOW PACK ACROSS THE AREA FROM YESTERDAYS RAINFALL. TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL BELOW FREEZING LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND HELP GEL UP THE SNOW PACK AGAIN AS AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT SWEEPS DOWN ACROSS THE AREA EARLY TONIGHT. THESE WILL MOSTLY END BY MORNING AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN MONDAY WITH THE SKY CLEARING FOR MONDAY NIGHT.
HRRR SHOWS THE POSSIBILITY OF CONVECTION FORMING OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN IN NORTHEAST MEXICO AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND MOVING SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE RIO GRANDE. LOW TEMPS WILL REACH DOWN INTO THE 30S MONDAY NIGHT BUT EXPECT IT WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING AT THIS TIME. COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE BAYS AND NEARSHORE WATERS A LITTLE EARLIER THIS EVENING.
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL KEEP THE WEATHER DRY THROUGH MONDAY.
Some sleet may mix in at times, with greater confidence at KFST, though freezing rain will be dominant. This will likely result in difficult driving conditions particularly for high profile vehicles and the High Wind Watch has been upgraded to a High Wind Warning for this location. Currently have SW flow developing aloft as an upper trough digs south toward the SW ConUS. Precip chances will continue through much of Monday with the highest chances generally NE of the Pecos River. As the colder air advances southward overnight, forecast model soundings continue to support rain changing over to freezing rain and/or sleet for all but the far southern zones by midnight tonight. For northern Lea County, think its possible for a snow/sleet mix rather than freezing rain.
WV imagery shows the west coast upper trough has amplified westward as advertised, and sits over central CA, resulting in SW flow aloft over the region. However, IR imagery shows the higher, colder clouds moving NE out of the area, which jives w/NAM forecast soundings, which dry out the upper column somewhat over the next few hours, taking saturation out of the dendritic growth zones. Temps will not warm much Monday, especially NE, where they should remain blo freezing. Thus, even though precip is expected to taper to drizzle/freezing drizzle Monday afternoon, icy surfaces will linger.
WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN. I SEE THE THREAT OF PATCHY DENSE FOG OR FREEZING FOG WITH SOME DRIZZLE AS WELL. CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 48 31 37 25 / 30 40 10 10 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 44 28 33 18 / 20 30 10 10 OAK RIDGE, TN 43 27 32 18 / 20 20 10 10 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 44 26 28 13 / 30 20 10 10.
317 PM EST SUN FEB 22 2015 AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
1126 AM CST SUN FEB 22 2015 18Z TAF CYCLE ONE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT OF THE PANHANDLES BY THIS EVENING AND ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE PANHANDLES TONIGHT AND MONDAY. WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE AT ALL THREE TAF SITES THROUGH 18Z MONDAY RESULTING IN IFR VISIBILITIES IN SNOW WITH A PERIOD OF MVFR TO VFR VISIBILITIES IN BETWEEN THE TWO UPPER TROUGHS AS THE SNOW TAPERS OFF BETWEEN 18Z TODAY AND 06Z MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WAS PROGRESSING THROUGH NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA SLIGHTLY BEHIND SCHEDULE.
257 PM EST SUN FEB 22 2015 ANOTHER ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT.
259 PM CST SUN FEB 22 2015 RAIN CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES HOLDING STEADY IN THE LOW TO MID 40S AREAWIDE. AS COLD HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SURGE SOUTH. RAIN TO TRANSITION INTO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR AFTER MIDNIGHT. SHOULD SEE RAIN TRANSITIONING TO FREEZING RAIN ACROSS DEEP EAST TEXAS AND WEST CENTRAL LOUISIANA. TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN AT OR BELOW FREEZING THROUGHOUT THE DAY MONDAY. FREEZING RAIN. THIS UNCERTAINTY EXISTS DUE TO THE FACT THAT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING ACROSS MANY AREAS THROUGHOUT THE DURATION OF THE EVENT.