Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
253 PM EDT Fri Jun 16 2017 A weak cold front pushes southeast this evening bringing rain chances to an end.
327 PM CDT Fri Jun 16 2017 As of 19z the pesky upper low across southern Canada continues to rotate about its axis. The front is forecast to move southeast through the evening and into southeast Kansas as the upper level trough moves southeast into the Mississippi Valley.
339 PM CDT Fri Jun 16 2017 500 mb low in far NW Ontario with upper flow around the low meeting up with the stronger westerly flow aloft from the Pacific eastward to ND.
351 PM CDT Fri Jun 16 2017 (Tonight and Saturday) Hot and dry conditions will prevail across the area through Saturday as an upper ridge of high pressure over northern Mexico dominates. The low level thermal ridge will strengthen even further on Saturday, with 850 mb temperatures around 35C across western sections. This will result in afternoon highs between 103 and 105 degrees across western sections and the lower 100s for the rest of the area, with heat indices between 103 and 106 degrees.
Weak high pressure will continue to ridge across the area through the period at the surface with the ridge axis to the south keeping a light S/SW flow. An upper trough in place to the west of the state will also keep SW flow aloft. Lows tonight will fall into the lower to mid 70s, with highs Saturday generally in the upper 80s to lower 90s. At the start of the medium to long range period, powerful upper ridging will have become established over the Desert Southwest. To its north, broad cyclonic flow will be present, with weak troughing extending from the Great Lakes southward into the Gulf of Mexico. At the surface, high pressure ridge axis will extend across the central Florida peninsula.
The Bowman radar shows a few showers moving across that region, though dry air in the low levels is likely working to inhibit some of the returns we are seeing from reaching the ground.
Subsident conditions persist with mid/upper level ridging over northern Mexico and much of the southwest US through the period.
Flow turns northwesterly and heights build on Saturday as heat builds over the southwest US helping develop a ridging trend over the western CONUS.
The low clouds and fog will burn off this burn off this morning and the airmass will quickly destabilize with SBCAPES pushing 3000 j/kg by noon. Trended slightly cooler than previous forecast though still quite warm and humid. Should be a relatively quiet period as some upper ridging bulges into the region from the SW.
SHORT TERM (Tonight through Saturday Night): A 500 hPa ridge anchored over North Central and Northwest Mexico will support short term subsidence and stability, as well as hot weather, over deep South Texas and the RGV. High temperatures Saturday will inch higher, ranging from the lower 90s near the coast to triple digits across portions of the Mid and Upper Valley.
A cold front will push through the region Saturday evening through the early overnight hours, sparking another round of storms along the front.
Today: Current convection will continue to diminish and move out of the cwa by early to mid morning, as the low level jet weakens and veers westerly. Tonight: Low pressure will move into the central Plains with the low level jet intensifying once again, providing low level convergence and forcing.
144 PM EDT Fri Jun 16 2017 A cold front will move southeast toward the area Friday, but will stall out just northwest of the area.
518 PM EDT Fri Jun 16 2017 A slow moving warm front will keep a chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms going this evening.
Current thinking is that the lower cloudiness will continue and ground fog will continue to develop across the region. Highs look to warm into the upper 80s to the lower 90s.
Waco should be positioned near the western terminus of the low cloud shield, and have added a TEMPO group to account for low-MVFR cigs occasionally building across the airfield early Saturday morning. /Issued 353 AM CDT Fri Jun 16 2017/ The current upper level pattern consists of a dominant ridge over Mexico and the Desert Southwest, zonal flow across the northern third of the CONUS and a weak trough across the southeast. The remnants of two convective complexes can be seen on satellite and RADAR early this morning traveling southeast around the eastern periphery of the ridge. A decision was made to go ahead and issue a heat advisory for the Dallas-Fort Worth Metro area where mid and upper 90s high temps combined with dewpoints in the lower 70s will produce heat indices near 105.
The low level jet slides off to the east and upper divergence weakens Saturday morning. The low pressure system and its associated cold front will sweep through the area, likely exiting eastern Wisconsin by around midnight. Cooler weather pushes in in the wake of the front.
That said, profiles for the higher terrain in the east are close, and wouldn't be surprised if some non-accumulating snow did actually mix in.
The front will be just north of the area on Thursday morning then eject northeastward as a cold front moves in from the northwest.
That in combination with a co-located weak upper level trough supported convection to the southwest of the Keys earlier today. The aforementioned upper level trough across the off shore Gulf waters west of the Keys is forecast to transition to an upper ridge by Wednesday.
Dry and bit cooler conditions expected heading into this weekend.
330 AM PDT Wed Apr 19 2017 Shower chances into Thursday then dry and warmer for the weekend. With less cloud cover, current temps are cooler compared to 24 hours ago ranging from the mid 20s and 30s in the mountains to the 40s and lower 50s elsewhere.
643 AM EDT Wed Apr 19 2017 A cold front will lay out south of Lake Erie this evening and lift northward late overnight as a warm front. A cold front will pass through the region on Thursday afternoon and evening, with showers and thunderstorms likely.
Anticipate that increasing upper ridging/decreasing PWAT values will preclude convection over the CWA Thursday. ) Drier atmospheric conditions Thursday will contribute to warmer maximum temperatures.
Associated trailing cold front extends from the Wisconsin low southwest into an area of low pressure over far southwest Kansas. Southerly low level flow across the Southern Plains has kept moisture in place across the region with stratus/fog noted across much of OK this morning and surface dewpoints in the low 60s to the south of the boundary. Hail and wind look to be the primary threats however within backed sfc flow near and just north of the warm front, we could see some tornadic potential by mid/late afternoon. Cool high pressure will build into the region into Thursday with lows around 40 possible across our north. As we head toward the weekend, an elongated mid/upper-level trough is forecast to extend across the northwestern CONUS and into southern Colorado.
Weak high pressure will bring dry weather and a warming trend today.
Given the lack of surface lifting keep the better coverage along the higher terrain near the VA border.
Other than a few showers, the high resolution models end most of the precipitation by midnight. The MCV will get caught in a larger trough dropping south along the Texas Coast tonight into tomorrow slowly ending rain chances across our eastern areas by late Wednesday. Chances for locally heavy rainfall decrease tonight as the MCV and low pressure move away from Central Texas.
The stalled front should lift north as a warm front and help to produce a greater tornado risk north of the forecast area as winds back to the southeast in the vicinity of the front, enhancing helicity values. For us though, our chances will be tied to the advancing cold front as the main upper trough moves east. There is also good turning in the low level hodographs suggesting there is some potential for a tornadoes, despite winds being veered to the southwest. Cooler and drier conditions will move into the region behind the front, which only pushes as far south as central OK and AR.
341 AM EDT Wed Apr 19 2017 Weather remains unsettled with a warm front remaining in our vicinity, and then a cold front crossing Thursday night.
314 AM CDT Wed Apr 19 2017 An upper level ridge over the area will result in unseasonably warm wx the next few days.
617 AM EDT Wed Apr 19 2017 High pressure will move east of the region today. A cold front will pass through state tonight into Thursday. Low pressure will approach from the west today as high pressure continues to move off to the east of the state. Precipitation is expected to spread across northern Maine from west to east later this afternoon and tonight as over-running takes place ahead of low pressure approaching from the west. The precipitation will end mid morning as the low moves away. H9 temps warm drg the day on Thu resulting in warmer maxes than Wed.
141 AM EDT Wed Apr 19 2017 A series of low pressure systems will keep periodic rain chances in the forecast through late week. A weak boundary will splay west to east across the area, stalling out due to the broad ridge resident over the southeast CONUS. The attendant cold front will generate showers and thunderstorms Thursday evening/night fueled by marginal instability and favorable uni-directional wind shear.
High pressure will then build in and bring a warming trend along with dry weather into the upcoming weekend.
349 AM PDT Wed Apr 19 2017 A trough over the eastern Pacific will move inland across California today with continued cool conditions and also bringing gusty afternoon and evening winds to the mountains and deserts.
High pressure will then build in for the weekend and will provide drier conditions along with warming temperatures. Winds across the ridgetops will also become gusty particularly this evening where peak gusts could reach 80+ mph. Thereafter, the weather turns quieter as an actual ridge of high pressure builds across are area for the weekend.
Ridging moves in place by Thursday morning with skies clearing and temperatures falling into the mid to upper 30s across most of the area.
307 AM MDT Wed Apr 19 2017 Current surface analysis shows low pressure over far northeast CO, with frontal boundary extending across the Central Plains. Inverted trough stretches north from the low across eastern WY. Temps are mostly in the 40s, with some 30s across the higher elevations of the western Black Hills. The highest elevations of the BH, mainly above 6000 ft, could still see some snow and light accumulations this morning, though the system is a bit warmer and temperatures are struggling to drop there. Lows will mostly be in the 30s, with some light snow possible across the higher BH if pcpn makes it there late at night.
Given the lack of surface lifting keep the better coverage along the higher terrain near the VA border. At the onset, a cold front will be entering KY from the northwest, and crossing the JKL forecast area Thursday night.
/issued 233 PM CDT Tue Apr 18 2017/ Upper ridging takes over today and tomorrow, leading to warming temperatures and hindering any thunderstorm development. The upper ridge will flatten to the south Thursday as an upper low swings through the Rockies toward the Central Plains. A cold front attempts to make a run for the area Thursday but it only looks to make it through the northern zones. Temperatures will be slightly cooler across the north with highs in the 80s however most areas will see 90s again.
A cold front will begin to move across the plains late this afternoon. Northeast winds will develop over the plains tonight bringing cooler and moister air back into the region.
259 AM EDT Wed Apr 19 2017 High pressure will move east of the region today. A cold front will pass through state tonight into Thursday. Low pressure will approach from the west today as high pressure continues to move off to the east of the state. Precipitation is expected to spread across northern Maine from west to east later this afternoon and tonight as over-running takes place ahead of low pressure approaching from the west. The precipitation will end mid morning as the low moves away. H9 temps warm drg the day on Thu resulting in warmer maxes than Wed.
This trof will head into the Nrn Plns today and tonight while amplifying due to a strong trof moving onshore in the W. Part of this low will move NE into Cntrl Neb by 18Z and then into Wrn IA by 00Z. The forecast dries out Wednesday night through Thursday as drier air and surface ridging settles in behind the boundary. An upper trough moves into the Rockies Thursday with a widespread rain developing and spreading east of the high plains late Thursday night and through the workweek.
Precip chances Wednesday night and Thursday will be mainly confined to n GA as a CAD airmass erodes with a weak nose of the upper ridge over the area but still potential for a weak short wave to aid precip chances.
This will effectively lift the old front north as a warm front, while a dry line develops southward from the low. Models indicate the warm front will make it as far north as southwest Nebraska after midnight, which is where any elevated thunderstorm may develop. Might see some fog develop along and north of the warm front as well with moist upslope low levels. A cold front pushes through the region Wednesday night with subsidence filtering in behind. This is followed by some weak upper ridging, leading to dry conditions during the day on Thursday. However, precipitation chances return from the west with the potential for showers beginning Thursday night as an upper trough over the Pacific Northwest dives southeast towards Colorado and closes off.
252 AM MST Wed Apr 19 2017 High pressure will remain in control of the weather this week, keeping the storm track to our north.
A dry zonal flow is in place over the area, with the region of high pressure south of us heavily influencing our weather with temperatures well above average for mid April. A strong ridge from the eastern Pacific will bring the highest temperatures of the year so far over the weekend.
349 AM EDT Wed Apr 19 2017 High pressure centered over northern New England will wedge down the east coast today.
Chances for showers and storms enter the forecast again on Thursday with the approach and passage of a cold front. The combination of the front, surface dewpoints in the lower to mid 60s, and 0-6 KM bulk shear of 40-50 knots may produce a severe thunderstorm or two.
314 AM EDT Wed Apr 19 2017 A series of low pressure systems will keep periodic rain chances in the forecast through late week. The boundary is progged to return N Thursday as low pressure tracks to the Upper Great lakes.
Wednesday will be the warmest day of the week, as strong thermal ridge pushes into SW KS ahead of approaching cold front. SW winds will be gusty for a few hours this morning, but winds will weaken during the afternoon hours as surface cyclone deepens over the western CWA and pressure gradient weakens. Cold front sweeps quickly through SW KS this evening, with gusty NE winds. Otherwise, breezy NE winds will usher in a cooler, drier and more stable airmass tonight with lows Thursday morning ranging from the mid 40s NW to the mid 50s along the Oklahoma border. The aforementioned cold front will pass across western Kansas Wednesday night, resulting in cooler lows in the upper 40s by Thursday morning and highs in the 60s on Thursday.
and Thursday There will be a brief dry period this morning as a low pressure system tracks along the cold front laid out across northern Illinois, lifting it back north as a warm front tonight. The best rain chances arrive tonight as the warm front lifts north with very strong isentropic lift as winds are strong and perpendicular to the isentropic surface. The low will lift northeast on Thursday, bringing cold air in behind it and ending the precipitation chances during the day. Given the continued northward trend of this low snowfall chances continue to diminish with each run.
Warm and unsettled weather continues under zonal flow aloft and moist SW flow in the low and mid levels. After a mild and dry night, the gradient will tighten ahead of an approaching cold front on Thursday.
Lows will continue to remain above average (about 10 degrees above normal) with lows in the low to mid 60s. In the upper levels a ridge is over the Southeast. A low will move through the Great Lakes Region but the associated cold front will not make it this far south. Lows will be in the low to mid 60s.
302 AM CDT Wed Apr 19 2017 A weak upper level trough, responsible for convection the last couple days, has shifted southeast into the northwest Gulf early this morning but there will remain a southwest to northeast oriented shear axis across our region today. Vigorous upper trough will move across the Northern Plains into the Great Lakes region late tonight into Thursday with an associated cold front expected to stall across S OK into W AR late Thu into Thu Night trailing the upper level trough.
With a little more sunshine, temperatures could reach the lower 80s west of I-65, while the slower cloud exit in the east should hold temperatures into the 70s.
Into the overnight hours, a cold front will dive south with gusty winds in its wake.
402 AM MDT Wed Apr 19 2017 Latest observations indicate the cold front has passed Vernal, Utah over the last few hours but hasn't reached as far south as the Grand Valley. Some showers will likely continue over the northern mountains and Flat Tops through the early afternoon hours thanks to favorable flow with maybe an inch or two of snow possible for the highest elevations. A quick transitory ridge will move over the region late tonight but by Thursday morning it will have shifted to the east thanks to the next weather system. As the next trough approaches, winds are expected to increase yet again though the strongest winds looks to be from the Uncompahgre Plateua southward. Shower activity increases Thursday night as the negatively tilted trough moves overhead and drives a cold front southeastward across the forecast area.
The GFS/NAM/ECM are in agreement w/varying degrees of cyclogenesis over east central Wyoming during the overnight hours w/the low and associated frontal boundary tracking across western Nebraska early on Wednesday.
After today, models show good agreement on sharpening the upper ridge axis over Central Tx from the west and effectively removing rain chances from almost all areas.
314 AM EDT Wed Apr 19 2017 Warm and unsettled weather continues under zonal flow aloft and moist SW flow in the low and mid levels. After a mild and dry night, the gradient will tighten ahead of an approaching cold front on Thursday.
312 AM EDT Wed Apr 19 2017 A series of low pressure systems will keep periodic rain chances in the forecast through late week. The boundary is progged to return N Thursday as low pressure tracks to the Upper Great lakes.
Skies will remain partly cloudy this evening, but an increase is expected late tonight in the northwest as a cold frontal boundary slowly drifts into the area. reaching into the lower 80s across most of the area. However, this system will be closer to the area and the associated cold front will move across the CWA Thursday morning.
Wednesday night the front will weaken and return northward as a ridge of high pressure builds in.
405 AM EDT Wed Apr 19 2017 A stationary front south of the South Carolina border will return northward as a warm front today.
Would not be completely surprised if the area saw temps slightly warmer, but convective debris and afternoon CU field shud hinder heating somewhat. Tilly As cold front slowly sinks south and east across forecast area, will see increasing chances of showers and storms on Thursday.
A cold front will be dropping SE towards the state on Thu.
244 AM EDT Wed Apr 19 2017 Low pressure developing across Iowa today will promote isolated to scattered thunderstorms along a frontal boundary draped across the area this afternoon. As this system lifts northeast across the upper Great Lakes Thursday, the accompanying cold front will move across our area, likely causing thunderstorms.
High pressure will remain in control of the weather this week, keeping the storm track to our north.
/issued 314 AM CDT Wed Apr 19 2017/ An upper level ridge over the area will result in unseasonably warm wx the next few days.
Weak cold front still expected to stall across north Texas on Thursday to the north of the forecast area.
The low would then jog south of the Black Hills and then resume course moving through SD Wednesday.
The location of the warm front is expected to lift northward and extend from southeast NEB east across southern IA by mid afternoon. Meanwhile, a cold front is expected to advance from late morning to late afternoon across western and north central NEB. The aforementioned precipitation chances will taper off as the cold front moves through this afternoon. Much cooler conditions across the north today compared to yesterday with some locations in the northern-third seeing highs 5-10 degrees below normal. Slightly cooler or similar highs expected across the Interstate 80 corridor on south. Lows overnight dip into the lower 30s to near 40 from west to east.
An upper trough pushes into the Pacific Northwest tonight bringing another round of precipitation into southeast Oregon after midnight. Showers spread into southwest Idaho on Thursday as the quick moving trough tracks inland.
KGAG and KWWR will probably avoid the low ceilings overnight, but are expected to be near the northern edge of the clouds, so we can't rule out a few periods of low ceilings early Wednesday morning at those sites. Before the return of more active weather, temperatures under the ridge tomorrow will again rise into the 80s.
Upper ridge builds into Montana tonight and moves across Eastern Montana on Thursday with dry weather. The ridge will linger along the MT/Dakota border Thursday Night as the next upper trough moves into Western Montana and the base of the trough digs south into Colorado.
The weakening mid level trough axis is slowly progressing eastward over the TX coast. Western zones have remained dry this afternoon while on the more subsident side of the trough. Upper level ridging will being working into the region Wednesday/Wednesday night. Temperatures tonight will be fairly similar to previous few nights, but Wednesday will be warmer, especially across the Rio Grande Plains and Brush Country. Highs in the upper 80s to 90 degrees can be expected out west, and in the low to mid 80s along the coast and inland.
The mid to upper level ridge will then begin to move into this area by Thursday afternoon. And this ridge will provide a very distinct dry air intrusion at 700mb into thunderstorms that will be ongoing in that area.
This is part of a low pressure system that will develop during the day Thursday over the Plains and push eastward into the Great Lakes region.
Gusty southerly winds up to 35 mph will be possible and high temperatures warming up into the lower to middle 80s area wide. A cold front will begin to slowly move into the region late Wednesday night across the Midwest and Central Plains region.
520 AM EDT Wed Apr 19 2017 Currently - High pressure over the northwestern Atlantic and the southeastern United States is being reinforced by another high moving off the North Atlantic coast. Forecast - Moderate to fresh east breezes will continue over the next couple of days as high pressure remains to our north. A low pressure system will develop over the plains later in the week and move into the Eastern United states this weekend.
120 AM EDT Wed Apr 19 2017 A cold front over the upper Midwest this evening will move into northern Indiana by Wednesday morning. The front will become stationary across our area Wednesday afternoon, then lift north Wednesday night as low pressure moves northeast from the central Plains. As the low lifts northeast across the upper Great Lakes Thursday, the accompanying cold front will move across our area, likely causing thunderstorms.
528 AM EDT Wed Apr 19 2017 A series of low pressure systems will keep periodic rain chances in the forecast through late week. The boundary is progged to return N Thursday as low pressure tracks to the Upper Great lakes.