Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
216 PM CST WED FEB 17 2016 High pressure over the middle Mississippi Valley has brought clearing as far east as the kpof area this afternoon. 19z surface dew points are at or above the low temp forecast.
/issued 222 AM CST WED FEB 17 2016/ An upper level ridge across the southwest states will move east toward the forecast area today and tonight. This will result in rising heights with temperatures rising to much above normal values this afternoon under mostly sunny skies as a weak lee trough and low level thermal ridge develop along the west Texas/eastern New Mexico border. The upper ridge is forecast to push east of the area by early Thursday and be replaced by west to southwest flow aloft.
1057 AM CST WED FEB 17 2016 HIGH PRESSURE OVER AREA TODAY. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT HAS CLEARED ALL TAF SITES. DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER IN DURING THE DAY PROVIDING VFR CONDITIONS. THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH AND SHIFT MORE EASTERLY BY EVENING AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WORK INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND MOVE TO THE EAST ON THURSDAY. PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT FOR A BRIEF PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL WORK INTO THE REGION THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO THE EAST ON THURSDAY.
Expect a partly to mostly cloudy sky over much of the area due to a combination of lingering low stratus mainly confined to our Illinois counties as well as some mid to high-level clouds streaming in downstream of building ridge. leaned toward warmer MAV guidance due to aforemetioned clouds/southeasterly flow. Leaned heavily toward MAV guidance (if not warmer) for high temperatures on Thursday yielding mid 50s to upper 60s from northeast to southwest. Synoptic pattern looks very conducive to much warmer temperatures tomorrow compared to today.
THERMAL RIDGE WILL PASS THU NIGHT. THE PARENT TROUGH IS STILL WELL OFF THE CA COAST THIS MORNING. THE FLOW WILL REMAIN FAIRLY ZONAL UNTIL A BROAD MEAN TROUGH FINALLY ATTEMPTS TO ESTABLISH ITSELF THROUGH THE MS VALLEY TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. AND DEWPOINTS ABOVE FREEZING INTO TOMORROW WHILE WE ARE IN THE THETA-E RIDGE.
WILL REMAIN UNDER STRONG RIDGING ALOFT INTO TOMORROW BEFORE THE UPPER PATTERN DAMPENS SLIGHTLY HEADED INTO THE WEEKEND.
1235 PM EST WED FEB 17 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS EASTERN NC FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
ANOTHER NIGHT OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND NEAR-FREEZING LOW TEMPERATURES ON THE WAY, AS REGION REMAINS UNDER DRY, STABLE CONDITIONS FROM HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING CURRENTLY CENTERED ALONG THE WA/OR/ID BORDER.
1244 AM EDT FRI OCT 16 2015 WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL DRAG PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.
809 PM EDT THU OCT 15 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS TO NY AND PA FRIDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT IS NOW JUST CROSSING LAKE ERIE AND WESTERN LAKE ONTARIO.
With the high cloud bases and very dry sub-cloud layer, the majority of precipitation will likely be in the form of virga, with some light rain or sprinkles reaching the ground. Lows tonight will be cooler with readings falling into the middle 30s in northern Missouri to the lower 40s in the south.
AN UPPER LOW CURRENTLY NEAR THE WEST COAST WL REMAIN THERE AND WEAKEN DRG THE PERIOD.
726 PM EDT THU OCT 15 2015 AN AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL DOMINATE THE REGIONAL WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES AVERAGING BELOW NORMAL.
-HOWERTON MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT EARLY WITH UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE PLAINS. ANTICIPATE MORE WIND/WARMER TEMPERATURES ON MON COMPARED TO SUN.
1022 PM EDT THU OCT 15 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS TO NY AND PA FRIDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT IS NOW JUST CROSSING LAKE ERIE AND WESTERN LAKE ONTARIO.
NORTHEAST WINDS IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT WILL GUST TO AROUND 30 KTS AT KAMA AND KDHT OVERNIGHT. /ISSUED 930 PM CDT THU OCT 15 2015/ ADJUSTED FORECAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND POSITION OF COLD FRONT. LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE WELL ADVERTISED COLD FRONT IS PRESENTLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. AT THE HIGHEST. THE COLD FRONT IS PROJECTED TO CLEAR THE PANHANDLE REGION BTWN 10 PM AND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE 20 TO 30 DEGREES COOLER THAN THOSE OBSERVED TODAY. WITH UPPER RIDGE PUSHING IN BEHIND.
1149 PM CDT THU OCT 15 2015 FREEZING TEMPERATURES TONIGHT.
920 PM CDT THU OCT 15 2015 WX MAP SHOWS WEAK RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE AREA.
654 PM CDT THU OCT 15 2015 A COLD FRONT IS WORKING ITS WAY INTO NORTH ARKANSAS THIS EVENING.
1124 PM CDT THU OCT 15 2015 The cold front that swept through our area early this afternoon accompanied by a gusty west to northwest wind, has shifted well off to our east and south this evening. Canadian high pressure well off to our northwest was ushering in some cool and very dry air with early evening dew points in the low to mid 20s over parts of our area.
A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT PROVIDING CLEAR SKIES AND NEAR CALM WINDS. WHERE MIN TEMPS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE PREDOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE THIS 00Z TAF CYCLE. THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TONIGHT AS A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.
Ahead of this feature, a cold front also will approach the region, passing the region overnight.
A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE WEST WILL BRING A WET AND COOLER PATTERN TO OUR AREA BY EARLY TOMORROW. HGHTS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY FALL OVER THE SOUTHWEST AS A WEAK UPPER LOW PUSHES ONSHORE OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. THE FLOW TO THE SOUTHEAST AND EAST OF THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING HIGH PW VALUES INTO ARIZONA OVER THE WEEKEND.
LIGHT E-SELY BREEZES AND SUB-FREEZING DEWPOINTS SETTING THE STAGE FOR WIDESPREAD FROST ACRS THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE CWA LATER TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT MOVED THROUGH EASTERN COLORADO THIS MORNING. AS A RESULT IT WAS QUITE COOLER TODAY. AND THE COLD AIRMASS WILL HELP CREATE NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES OVER MUCH OF NORTHEAST COLORADO OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. FRIDAY PROMISES TO BE WARMER AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN CAUSE SOUTHERLY WINDS TO DEVELOP AND STRENGTHEN IN THE AFTERNOON. WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL ALSO HELP TEMPERATURES CLIMB BACK INTO THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S ON FRIDAY.
MUCH DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL ALSO BE FILTERING INTO THE REGION.
706 PM CDT THU OCT 15 2015 PRETTY ACTIVE DAY FOR A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING IN. FOR TONIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECOUPLE AND DIMINISH BY 00Z AND WITH THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTING INTO WESTERN IOWA TONIGHT. I AGREE WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THE CURRENT FROST ADVISORY SINCE THE SOUTHWEST HAS YET TO SEE NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES AND THE NISH VALLEY WILL LIKELY DROP TO THE MID 30S TONIGHT. THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TOUCHED FREEZING IN THE PAST FEW NIGHTS SO I AM NOT CONSIDERING HEADLINES FOR THAT AREA TONIGHT.
SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS ALREADY PUSHED SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS. LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE WELL ADVERTISED COLD FRONT IS PRESENTLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. AT THE HIGHEST. THE COLD FRONT IS PROJECTED TO CLEAR THE PANHANDLE REGION BTWN 10 PM AND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE 20 TO 30 DEGREES COOLER THAN THOSE OBSERVED TODAY. WITH UPPER RIDGE PUSHING IN BEHIND.
658 PM CDT THU OCT 15 2015 FOR 00Z TAFS /ISSUED 234 PM CDT THU OCT 15 2015/ THE 19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED THAT THE COLD FRONT WAS CLOSING IN ON ST. AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. TEMPS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA HAD WARMED INTO THE LOW-MID 80S IN NORTHWEST ALABAMA AND INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ELSEWHERE UNDER SUNNY SKIES. THE MODELS ARE FAVORABLE IN MOVING THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BY BETWEEN THE 12Z-15Z TIME FRAME ON FRIDAY. THERE WILL BE VERY LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH THIS COLD FRONT. WILL CONTINUE WITH GENERALLY MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS AND TEMPS SHOULD BE AROUND 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT.
SHORT TERM: (Through Late Tonight) Main concern for tonight will be on possibility of some isolated rain showers through the evening hours behind a cold frontal passage. Main forcing mechanism looks to be a region of low/midlevel frontogenesis advecting southward behind the surface cold front. Cooler air will begin to filter in behind the cold front tonight with strong low-level CAA and decreasing cloudiness helping yield lows in the 40s.
AN 850MB COLD FRONT RAN FROM THE ARROW HEAD OF MINNESOTA INTO NORTHEAST WYOMING. 18Z SFC DATA HAS THE COLD FRONT FROM NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN INTO CENTRAL MISSOURI. QUIET AND CHILLY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE DROPS SOUTH FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
624 PM CDT THU OCT 15 2015 PRETTY ACTIVE DAY FOR A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING IN. FOR TONIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECOUPLE AND DIMINISH BY 00Z AND WITH THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTING INTO WESTERN IOWA TONIGHT. I AGREE WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THE CURRENT FROST ADVISORY SINCE THE SOUTHWEST HAS YET TO SEE NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES AND THE NISH VALLEY WILL LIKELY DROP TO THE MID 30S TONIGHT. THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TOUCHED FREEZING IN THE PAST FEW NIGHTS SO I AM NOT CONSIDERING HEADLINES FOR THAT AREA TONIGHT.
At 3 PM today, the cold front continues its southward progression through southern portions of the CWA. Scattered showers were noted developing across central MO as a short wave trough shifted into northern KS. Throughout the CWA, forecast lows are a bit warmer in the upper 30s. Calm and cooler conditions return for Friday with light northerly winds, clear skies, and highs generally in the low to middle 60s.
1244 AM EDT FRI OCT 16 2015 A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
1204 AM EDT FRI OCT 16 2015 AVIATION A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON BRINGING THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
952 PM CDT THU OCT 15 2015 Updated forecast to fine tune the timing of the cold front tonight. The advertised cold front continues its trek south through eastern New Mexico and the Texas Panhandle, currently located along a line from just north of Childress west through Plainview to just south of Dora, New Mexico. Cold front near CVN with modest push per 2-3mb/3hr pressure rises and is expected to move slowly s.
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA EARLY FRIDAY ALLOWING WINDS TO BECOME BRISK FROM THE NORTH AT 10 TO 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS.
For the 0Z TAFs, a cold front is currently moving southward across the region and has, or will eventually, shift winds to the north at all sites. /ISSUED 254 PM CDT THU OCT 15 2015/ The cold front was currently analyzed from central MO westward along the KS/OK border and into the northern TX panhandle. The strengthening cold front will begin a southward surge later this afternoon. with the highest coverage likely remaining across northeast OK into parts of northwest AR. The cooler weather will persist through the weekend.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SWING ACROSS EASTERN TEXAS DURING FRIDAY MORNING. EXPECT ANOTHER DAY WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER 90S INLAND TOMORROW. THEN COOLER WITH A FRONT FRI NIGHT/EARLY SAT.
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS NOTED OVER NW KY NEAR THE COLD FRONT. CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 53 74 43 63 / 0 0 0 0 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 52 70 39 59 / 10 20 0 0 OAK RIDGE, TN 51 70 40 60 / 10 20 0 0 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 46 67 35 56 / 20 20 0 0.
H5 HEIGHTS WILL SLOWLY CLIMB AS MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER PACIFIC NORTHWEST MIGRATES EAST.
OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY.
AFTER A WARMER AFTERNOON. STILL ON TRACK FOR LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S WITH JUST A FEW ISOLATED SPOTS OF UPPER 40S IN THE NORTH. AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. COLD FRONT CURRENTLY JUST TO OUR NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA THROUGH MIDDLE KENTUCKY. THE DRY FRONT SHOULD BE EXITED CENTRAL ALABAMA GIVING WAY TO COOLER TEMPERATURES NORTH AND WARMER TEMPERATURES SOUTH. /61/ A DRY COLD FRONT WILL BRING A REINFORCING SHOT OF DRY AIR ON FRIDAY.
627 PM CDT THU OCT 15 2015 A BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH WAS LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF NORTHERN AMERICA. A FEW ENHANCED AREAS OF VORTICITY WERE EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS TROUGH. AND TEMPERATURES WILL FALL NEAR FREEZING OVERNIGHT.
DEW POINTS HAVE PLUMMETED INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S THIS AFTERNOON. WITH RH VALUES NOW IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S AS WELL. MAIN STORY TONIGHT WILL BE FREEZING TO SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES. TO JUST ABOVE FREEZING ALONG THE JAMES TO SUX.
AN UPPER LOW ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL START TO SPREAD MOISTURE INTO SOUTHERN UTAH FRIDAY.
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY UNSEASONABLY WARM MID OCTOBER DAY HERE ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY CONDITIONS. TEMPS HAVE WARMED INTO THE LOW 80S EAST AND MID/UPPER 80S WEST. DEW POINTS WILL INCREASE A BIT OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOW/MID 50S. FOR THOSE WHO LOVE THE WARMER WEATHER ENJOY IT NOW BECAUSE A CHANGE IS COMING.
/ISSUED 920 PM CDT THU OCT 15 2015/ WX MAP SHOWS WEAK RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE AREA.
1051 PM EDT THU OCT 15 2015 A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDED FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AND WILL BE OFF THE EAST COAST BY FRIDAY NIGHT.
/ISSUED 244 PM CDT THU OCT 15 2015/ CURRENTLY TEMPERATURES WERE RANGING FROM NEAR 80F ALONG THE LOWER TENNESSEE RIVER.
1036 PM MDT THU OCT 15 2015 THE COLD FRONT ALONG THE FRONT RANGE HAS LEAKED WEAKLY INTO NW COLORADO AND PERHAPS INTO THE EASTERN MOST ZONES THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE THE EVOLUTION OF THE PATTERN IS A BIT SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH THE UPPER LOW LANGUISHING ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST THROUGH FRIDAY.
A COOLER WEEKEND CAN BE EXPECTED WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS SOME 5 TO 10 DEGREES LOWER THAN WHAT HAS BEEN SEEN OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS.
729 PM EDT THU OCT 15 2015 AVIATION A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON BRINGING THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
Kept ghost pops in along the Oklahoma border with the highest values in Barber county. Guidance is warmer than compared to previous solutions. Do have upper 30s with the lowest values stretching from Coolidge northeast to Victoria and points northwest. Lastly, there will be a large temperature/dewpoint spread, so don't even think frost will form in the first place, let alone be near freezing. For tomorrow, cooler 850-hPa air will advect in from the northeast and will keep temperatures below normal. Winds will eventually veer around to the southeast as high pressure shifts off to the east and high plains lee troughing resumes.
For the 6Z TAFS, Gusty northeasterly winds will affect all sites overnight in the wake of a passing cold front. /ISSUED 919 PM CDT THU OCT 15 2015/ Cold front is making steady progress to the south this evening and will exit the area by midnight or shortly thereafter.
749 PM EDT THU OCT 15 2015 LOW PRESSURE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WILL TRACK INTO QUEBEC TONIGHT DRAGGING A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA.
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. SATELLITE INDICATES CIRRUS WILL BE DECREASING FOR A WHILE OVERNIGHT THEN INCREASE AGAIN FRIDAY AS THE OFFSHORE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT APPROACH THE COAST.
906 PM CDT THU OCT 15 2015 COLD FRONT IS PUSHING THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH THIS EVENING. COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH OVERNIGHT AND CLOUDS WILL INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS. /ISSUED 244 PM CDT THU OCT 15 2015/ CURRENTLY TEMPERATURES WERE RANGING FROM NEAR 80F ALONG THE LOWER TENNESSEE RIVER.
930 PM CDT THU OCT 15 2015 ADJUSTED FORECAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND POSITION OF COLD FRONT. SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS ALREADY PUSHED SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS. LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE WELL ADVERTISED COLD FRONT IS PRESENTLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. AT THE HIGHEST. THE COLD FRONT IS PROJECTED TO CLEAR THE PANHANDLE REGION BTWN 10 PM AND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE 20 TO 30 DEGREES COOLER THAN THOSE OBSERVED TODAY. WITH UPPER RIDGE PUSHING IN BEHIND.
A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA ALONG WITH DEEP SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL KEEP A CHANCE FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS GOING THROUGH FRIDAY. OVER THE WEEKEND A SECOND TROUGH FROM OVER THE PACIFIC WILL BRING MORE CHANCES FOR MAINLY MOUNTAINS AND DESERT THUNDERSTORMS.
725 PM EDT THU OCT 15 2015 A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDED FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AND WILL BE OFF THE EAST COAST BY FRIDAY NIGHT.
635 PM CDT THU OCT 15 2015 A cold front had pushed south through the Missouri Ozarks and southeastern Kansas as of late afternoon. All precipitation is expected to end by 12z Friday with a drier and much cooler air mass moving into the area as Canadian high pressure enters from the northwest. Temperatures on Friday will be much cooler than today with highs struggling in the 60s. Could see the first bit of frost over the eastern Ozarks heading into Friday night as high pressure begins to settle over the area and winds become light and variable under a clear sky.
1033 PM CDT THU OCT 15 2015 MAIN STORY TONIGHT WILL BE FREEZING TO SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES. TO JUST ABOVE FREEZING ALONG THE JAMES TO SUX.
THEN EASTERN-MOVING HIGH PRESSURE VEERING THESE BREEZES AROUND TO THE EAST THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON-EARLY FRIDAY EVENING. A COOLER WEEKEND CAN BE EXPECTED WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS SOME 5 TO 10 DEGREES LOWER THAN WHAT HAS BEEN SEEN OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH SKC UNTIL HIGH CLOUDS MOVE IN ALONG WITH A COLD FRONT EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY DIVE SE INTO THE MID MS VALLEY LATE TONIGHT. COOLER AIR WILL BACKDOOR SW INTO NE TX/NRN LA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING IN GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS NEAR 20 MPH AND RH VALUES BELOW 30%. THE COOLER AND DRIER AIR IN WAKE OF THE FRONT SHOULD BE MORE NOTICED FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE ECMWF/GFS CONTINUE TO DEPICT A LONGWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL SLOWLY TRANSLATE E ACROSS THE ROCKIES TO SRN BAJA.
EXPECT INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS TO SPREAD NWD TONIGHT INTO FRI ON PERIPHERY OF LARGE H25 ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN.
1016 PM EDT THU OCT 15 2015 WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL DRAG PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.
WEAK RIDGING ALOFT WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT IS MOVING SOUTHEAST JUST NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY WATERS OF MINNESOTA. LOWS TO FALL INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S.
938 PM CDT THU OCT 15 2015 CLEAR SKIES WITH FREEZING TEMPS TONIGHT. FREEZING TEMPERATURES TONIGHT HIGHLIGHT THE SHORT TERM FORECAST. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING AND INTO THE NIGHT. THE COOLER EDGE OF GUIDANCE WAS FAVORED FOR LOWS TONIGHT PER RECENT VERIFICATION.
Cold front near CVN with modest push per 2-3mb/3hr pressure rises and is expected to move slowly s.
A developing cold front on approach from the northwest will make its passage tonight. It will draw down the cooler Canadian temps, and we'll see fairly widespread 30s both tmrw nite and Sat nite. And while both nites shud see frost, Sat nite retains the best chance for a more widespread frost with the combo of ideal synoptic conditions for clr sky/light wind radiational cooling, as the high centers over Il by 12Z Sun. Thats when both the ECMWF and the GFS bring a long wave trough through the central plains forcing the high over the gulf states to the east coast.
955 PM MST THU OCT 15 2015 A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
1051 PM MDT THU OCT 15 2015 UPPER PATTERN WILL CHANGE VERY LITTLE THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A RIDGE AXIS FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TO TEXAS AND TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST CONUS. COLDEST MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S AND CAN FIND NO REASON TO DEVIATE SO THE CURRENT FROST ADVISORY LOOKS OK. THIS WILL BE RECIRCULATED COLD AIR THAT HAS ONLY BEEN SLIGHTLY MODIFIED RESULTING IN AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
524 PM MDT THU OCT 15 2015 UPPER PATTERN WILL CHANGE VERY LITTLE THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A RIDGE AXIS FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TO TEXAS AND TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST CONUS. COLDEST MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S AND CAN FIND NO REASON TO DEVIATE SO THE CURRENT FROST ADVISORY LOOKS OK. THIS WILL BE RECIRCULATED COLD AIR THAT HAS ONLY BEEN SLIGHTLY MODIFIED RESULTING IN AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
936 PM EDT THU OCT 15 2015 LOW PRESSURE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WILL TRACK INTO QUEBEC TONIGHT DRAGGING A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA.
AND AS WINDS DIMINISH TONIGHT WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE HIGH. SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE FRIDAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER MOVES EAST OF THE AREA.
KEY WEST RADAR TRENDS FIND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MOVING TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST ALONG THE LOWER KEYS.
526 PM MDT THU OCT 15 2015 THE COLD FRONT ALONG THE FRONT RANGE HAS LEAKED WEAKLY INTO NW COLORADO AND PERHAPS INTO THE EASTERN MOST ZONES THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE THE EVOLUTION OF THE PATTERN IS A BIT SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH THE UPPER LOW LANGUISHING ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST THROUGH FRIDAY.
DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN INTO FRIDAY WITH WARMER TEMPS. RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE A LIGHT NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE IS STILL LINGERING ALONG THE RIO GRANDE ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE LOWER RGV. FRIDAY NIGHT RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE WITH GRADIENT SLIGHTLY INCREASING WINDS ALONG THE COAST BUT LIGHT EAST WIND PREVAILS INLAND.
HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REFLECT THIS LOW CLOUD FORMATION AND TO EXTEND THEM SOUTH TO SOUTH PARK. LIGHT E-SELY BREEZES AND SUB-FREEZING DEWPOINTS SETTING THE STAGE FOR WIDESPREAD FROST ACRS THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE CWA LATER TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT MOVED THROUGH EASTERN COLORADO THIS MORNING. AS A RESULT IT WAS QUITE COOLER TODAY. AND THE COLD AIRMASS WILL HELP CREATE NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES OVER MUCH OF NORTHEAST COLORADO OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. FRIDAY PROMISES TO BE WARMER AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN CAUSE SOUTHERLY WINDS TO DEVELOP AND STRENGTHEN IN THE AFTERNOON. WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL ALSO HELP TEMPERATURES CLIMB BACK INTO THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S ON FRIDAY.
747 PM EDT THU OCT 15 2015 WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL DRAG PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.
A FEW AREAS HAVE ALREADY SEEN LOW TEMPERATURES THIS SEASON AT OR A LITTLE BELOW FREEZING BUT MOST AREAS HAVE NOT. NEAR TO SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED OVER MANY AREAS PARTICULARLY EC WYOMING INTO THE NEB PANHANDLE AND HAVE POSTED FROST ADVY/FREEZE WARNINGS WHERE THIS SHOULD OCCUR.
A COLD FRONT MOVED THROUGH LAST NIGHT. LEAVING BEHIND COOLER TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER HUMIDITY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. THE RIDGE POKES BACK IN FOR FRIDAY WITH WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS RETURNING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S IN MOST AREAS WITH LOW HUMIDITY RETURNING BUT WITH LIGHT WINDS AS THE RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD. LARGE AMPLIFIED RIDGE AND DRY BOUNDARY LAYER COMBINING TO GIVE CONTINUED FCST WITH SUNNY SKIES AND NO PRECIP ANYWHERE IN THE FA THROUGH AT LEAST SAT AFTERNOON. THEN A DEVELOPING PAC SW TROF WILL COMBINE WITH REMNANTS OF A COL.
-HOWERTON MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT EARLY WITH UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE PLAINS. ANTICIPATE MORE WIND/WARMER TEMPERATURES ON MON COMPARED TO SUN. -HOWERTON AVIATION CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD. COLD FRONT CAME THROUGH AND IS NOW SITUATED DOWN ACROSS CENTRAL OK. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO FRI PUMPING DRIER AND COOLER AIR INTO THE AREA.
FREEZING TEMPERATURES TONIGHT HIGHLIGHT THE SHORT TERM FORECAST. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING AND INTO THE NIGHT. THE COOLER EDGE OF GUIDANCE WAS FAVORED FOR LOWS TONIGHT PER RECENT VERIFICATION.
941 PM CDT THU OCT 15 2015 COLD FRONT CURRENTLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO SOUTHERN ARKANSAS.
744 PM EDT THU OCT 15 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL TRACK ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING WHICH WILL BRING AN END TO THE LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. COOLER AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THIS FRONT FOR FRIDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL REACH BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S.