Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
218 AM MDT Sat Jun 5 2021 A cold front will push through the region this afternoon. Dry weather with cooler, but still above normal temperatures will continue through midweek when the next system will move into the Pacific Northwest producing the next possibility of showers and thunderstorms. Occasional mid-level and high level clouds under a flattened upper level ridge. Front has crossed the region, but it appears cooling may not be as strong as expected yesterday, at least for today, but the cooler temperatures continue Sun. Coupling with this very low humidity is some strong to very strong wind, with gusts in excess of 40 mph over the Arco desert this afternoon and gusts into the 30s for the rest of the Snake River plain, eastern Magic Valley, and the ridges of the central Idaho mountains.
1047 PM MDT Fri Jun 4 2021 While the persistent ridge is flattening somewhat, today will be the hottest day of the year thus far at many locations, generally around 20F above normal. Temperatures will cool slightly on Saturday (though still well above normal) as a cold front approaches northwestern Wyoming. A tightening pressure gradient will increase winds on Saturday, likely leading to elevated fire weather conditions in the lower elevations.
246 AM CDT Sat Jun 5 2021 Upper level pattern has changed very little today as the low lifts to the northeast very slowly. This will lead to a pretty similar day to yesterday with temperatures warming into the low to mid 80's. Similar to yesterday precipitation that develops along the higher terrain of New Mexico will stay across New Mexico as northerly flow aloft will prevent this activity from moving into West Texas.
140 AM EDT Sat Jun 5 2021 A weak low pressure trough remains nearby into Saturday. High pressure will then build to the west this weekend.
331 AM EDT Sat Jun 5 2021 High pressure settles across the local area on today.
A strong but dry westerly flow aloft and a flat upper level trough will remain over the area through Saturday night. Despite the cooler temperatures and higher humidity, Saturday's winds will be stronger. Winds in the Lower Columbia Basin and Blue Mtn Foothills could be pushing the 45-50 mph gusts with a possible advisory needed. Similar winds have brought blowing dust to the Lower Columbia Basin recently, so confidence was high to include 5-6SM BLDU at KPSC and KPDT.
254 AM EDT Sat Jun 5 2021 Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb ridge across the desert sw into the northern plains and a trough in the Pacific NW and a trough in New England.
Upper energy from a slow moving upper trough over the Southern Plains will continue to enhance shower and thunderstorm coverage today.
406 AM CDT Sat Jun 5 2021 Early this morning, a modestly amplified upper RIDGE prevailed over the central CONUS. At the surface, an area of high pressure was centered over the southeastern CONUS with an increasingly open flow from the Gulf of Mexico as the ridge axis that was blocking moisture from this body of water has gradually weakened.
933 AM EDT Sat Jun 5 2021 High pressure centered along the East Coast will expand further west across the southern Great Lakes throughout the weekend and persist through midweek.
The risk of severe storms will be there again with cooler air aloft and stronger shear. High temperatures will be a bit cooler today, but still very warm, with afternoon maxes in the lower to mid 90s.
646 AM EDT Sat Jun 5 2021 High pressure centered along the East Coast will expand further west across the southern Great Lakes throughout the weekend and persist through midweek.
Temperatures Saturday through this morning have over-performed, warmer than most available guidance in the forecast area. Have also gone with slightly warmer temperatures tonight per the recent verification theme, and could argue for a warmer forecast yet owing to continued gradual increases in dewpoint which often lead to slightly better overnight heat retention. Sunday will be hot once again although with some potential for a bit of cloud cover especially over the southern part of the forecast area as an upper low currently over TX will drift northeast and bring a fetch of Gulf of Mexico moisture. This trough should be strong enough to push a cool front toward northeast Nebraska by late Sunday.
A staunch ridge sits over the eastern half of the country and continues to influence the weather here in central illinois. Tonight, high pressure will begin shifting east slightly, allowing for greater moisture transport into the region. Looking ahead, the jet stream is expected to remain far north of the region while high pressure persists over the central US.
Windy conditions from late morning into this evening will be the primary concern today as a cold front slowly slides across the area.
Temperatures will be much cooler behind the front with highs in the low to mid 80s for the Missouri Valley. High heat looks to stick around throughout the period, while high heights in the mid/upper levels and a mid-level thermal ridge are in play across the northern plains region. When the period opens Sunday night, a cold front is forecast to be straddling the southern CWA border, possibly slipping a bit further south and east in the region before stalling out. Still maintaining some low end pops for precipitation potential that could develop along/behind this low level forcing mechanism.
Due to the limited spatial extent of this band these low clouds should be relatively short lived therefore only a tempo has been added at these terminals to account for the low clouds. /issued 246 AM CDT Sat Jun 5 2021/ Upper level pattern has changed very little today as the low lifts to the northeast very slowly. This will lead to a pretty similar day to yesterday with temperatures warming into the low to mid 80's. Similar to yesterday precipitation that develops along the higher terrain of New Mexico will stay across New Mexico as northerly flow aloft will prevent this activity from moving into West Texas. /WCI The low over central Texas is progged to take a slightly westward track into Sunday morning making its way over the metroplex as opposed to the ArkLaTex as observed yesterday.
250 AM PDT Sat Jun 5 2021 Weakening high pressure over the Southwest will bring cooling to inland areas through Sunday.
/Today through Sunday/ An unsettled weather pattern will continue across the region during the short-term period, as the region will remain on the eastern flank of a broad upper low meandering northward out of Central Texas into North Texas. By Sunday, weak upper level ridging will start to build into the southwest CONUS and Northern Mexico. This will help push the aforementioned upper low northeastward into Northeast Texas and adjacent Eastern Oklahoma. With the region remaining on the eastern flank and in closer proximity to the upper low, widespread rain chances will remain across the region. Highs on today and Sunday will likely only climb into the lower 80s areawide.
/issued 345 AM CDT Sat Jun 5 2021/ WV imagery shows the upper trough now over central Texas, with an upper ridge to follow.
Temperatures aloft at h700mb rise to 13-15C with the higher temperatures across wrn and nrn Nebraska. A Pacific cold front across the Northwest U. The low level jet could sustain storm development for a few hours and the primary hazard would most likely be gusty winds.
624 AM CDT Sat Jun 5 2021 (Today and tonight) The broad, weak low pressure trough, currently seen over central Texas on the water vapor satellite imagery, is producing light rain across north Texas. As this low shifts N/NE towards the Red River, showers and thunderstorm chances diminish and shift eastward by this evening. Areas south/east of I-44 are expected to be cooler than western and northern Oklahoma, with highs in the 70s. Tonight, the low will reach central Oklahoma which will keep some cloudcover over the area.
Given the moist airmass, locally heavy downpours can't be ruled out mainly along and south of the Highway 98 corridor, but no widespread issues are expected yet. Then as synoptic-scale upper divergence increases with a jet max rounding the upper low and another mid-level impulse begins to move across the region, an uptick in convection is expected during the overnight/early Sunday morning hours with current guidance favoring a corridor from central through south/southeast MS for developing precip which will persist into the day Sunday.
Similar coastal highs today with slightly cooler temperatures inland as we get another round of breezy to locally gusty onshore winds today and Sunday.
535 AM CDT Sat Jun 5 2021 Early this morning, a modestly amplified upper RIDGE prevailed over the central CONUS. At the surface, an area of high pressure was centered over the southeastern CONUS with an increasingly open flow from the Gulf of Mexico as the ridge axis that was blocking moisture from this body of water has gradually weakened.
The upper low remains centered over Central Texas at the present time with very little movement over the past 24 hours. The eastern side of the low will continue to see the best chances of showers and thunderstorms today. Highs today will top out in the 80s to near 90 degrees with the warmer temperature across the Rio Grande Plains. For tomorrow, warmer 850 temps are expected to move in from the SSW to the area which should continue to shift the rain chances to the east with smaller chances as well.
426 AM MDT Sat Jun 5 2021 A pattern of upper-ridging still persists over the area, leading to another day of relatively quiet weather over the eastern plains. Upper ridge begins to rebuild slightly on Mon, while drier air spreads across the mountains during the day. Expect a general downturn in convection over the high terrain in the afternoon, though some isolated, high based storms may linger for one more day over the eastern mountains where some residual moisture lingers. Remainder of the week then features a generally warm and dry forecast (hottest days Wed/Thu), as ridge drifts into the plains and dry/hot swly flow spreads eastward across CO.
Upper ridging and high pressure at the surface will keep us warm and dry today. As we move into the overnight, some deeper moisture will begin to funnel south to north into our region between the upper ridge over the SE CONUS and a closed upper low over the Red River Valley. The Massie Rose 1000-850 mb technique show high temps are expected to be in the low to mid 80s through the week, with plenty of cloud cover. High pressure in place will keep things VFR and dry today.
An area of low pressure was located over northwest Lake Superior at 830Z, with a quasi-stationary boundary extending west southwest along the international border into eastern North Dakota. Mid level ridging will be building across the region today, bringing the warmer temps across the Northland again today. The mid and upper ridging gives way to a strengthening southwest flow Sunday. A cold front will approach the Northland Sunday afternoon which will be the focus for storms.
An upper level ridge and a surface Bermuda high are beginning to strengthen, which should continue the downward trend of TS coverage. But, given a developing 500mb ridge and a strengthening Bermuda high, would expect somewhat less coverage of thunderstorms today, but still some activity, in the areas mention this afternoon. A mid to upper ridge will prevail from the southeast Gulf of Mexico through the southwest North Atlantic Ocean. South Florida will remain under the western periphery of high pressure centered to our northeast.
High pressure will provide for dry conditions today. This moisture is advecting into the region as a weak, upper level trough begins to moves northward from Texas into the central Plains. The peak of the activity is expected during the afternoon hours, with southwest locations containing the highest probabilities. Upper level low pressure to the south and west of the Ohio Valley, along with Bermuda high pressure in the western Atlantic, provide deep southwesterly flow and high precipitable water values through the period. High temperatures will reach into the lower 80s under considerable cloud cover.
Upper level analysis places broad low over the southern plains, with northern stream ridging over our area. A variety of weak short waves noted in the ridge, which continue to bring a few weak showers and thunderstorms to our area, mainly southern portions. Ridge axis slides east a bit, resulting in the warmest temperatures being found mainly over eastern parts of our area. Cold front shifts to the south on Sunday. Temperatures will be notably cooler, but in addition the atmosphere will be drier, bringing low humidity.
Maximum Temperature will be near normal with highs in the 85-88 degrees inland and lower 80s at the beaches Saturday and a fewer degrees cooler on Sunday. Narrow mid level ridge overhead through the period while surface and low level high remain anchored well offshore.
517 AM EDT Sat Jun 5 2021 High pressure will build aloft and to our southeast.
524 AM MDT Sat Jun 5 2021 The forecast area will be just east of the thermal ridge with another day of record/near breaking warmth expected ahead of a trough pulling into the Pacific Northwest. Highs should be 3 to 6 degrees cooler than yesterday. Diurnal, isolated convection is expected especially over the higher terrain and over the south.
The transition to a cooler weather regime for Oregon and northern California is underway as an upper trough moves into the PacNW.
The region is still under the influence of an upper level high centered near the Colorado/Wyoming border at this hour. Expected this upper level high to begin breaking down today, which all models have continued to show over the past 48 hours.
541 AM MDT Sat Jun 5 2021 The ridge axis is expected to move across the Northern Plains today as an upper level trough moves slowly across the Pacific NW. The closed low over the Southern Plains is expected to become more neutrally-tilted throughout the day, allowing more Gulf moisture to advect into the area. Sunday, the upper level trough will begin to push across the Northern Plains while the closed low finally begins to push to the north-northeast towards the Central Plains. Combined with the lee trough along the Front Range, there may be enough instability during the afternoon and evening for a few showers and thunderstorms to develop.
530 AM EDT Sat Jun 5 2021 Airmass remains dry over southeast Michigan underneath an upper level ridge, and development of CU (5-8kft) today should be limited, with more high clouds than anything. Still should be enough of a gradient to support sustained winds at or just under 10 knots tonight, and the low level jet looks to be under 40 knots, thus no true low level wind shear concerns.
but some SHRA is beginning to lift north into SRN/SWRN sections of the state as an upper closed low over TX lifts slowly north. This upper low will slowly lift north from TX into SRN OK by this afternoon/evening. This upper low will slow down further. this upper low will then slowly lift generally NE into SW MO/NE OK/SE KS. Coverage of convection looks to be a bit more widespread for Sun with the upper closed low in closer proximity to AR.
Early morning water vapor imagery showed a small band of enhanced lift approaching the Mid TX Coast south of an upper low parked over central Texas. Much warmer 850mb temps and a thermal ridge are shown to gain territory over S TX through the day, so this should lead to hotter temps with some afternoon heat indices of 105 to 108 from the southern Coastal Plains to the Rio Grande Valley.
622 AM EDT Sat Jun 5 2021 High pressure will build aloft and to our southeast.
With high pressure to the southeast and low pressure well to the west, southwest winds will prevail, some gusts to 25 mph especially north of I-74. A staunch ridge sits over the eastern half of the country and continues to influence the weather here in central illinois. Tonight, high pressure will begin shifting east slightly, allowing for greater moisture transport into the region. Looking ahead, the jet stream is expected to remain far north of the region while high pressure persists over the central US.
Looping hi res vis sat imagery shows the motion of the developing cu field nicely traces out the location of the low level ridge axis oriented E-W across central FL.
Mostly clear conditions throughout the night have allowed temperatures to cool into the low to mid 60s. For the rest of today, abundant sunshine is expected as the region is dominated by high pressure. This moisture is advecting into the region as a weak, upper level trough begins to moves northward from Texas into the central Plains. The peak of the activity is expected during the afternoon hours, with southwest locations containing the highest probabilities. Upper level low pressure to the south and west of the Ohio Valley, along with Bermuda high pressure in the western Atlantic, provide deep southwesterly flow and high precipitable water values through the period. High temperatures will reach into the lower 80s under considerable cloud cover.
Short Term Update - The previously mentioned ridge will remain fairly steady this afternoon resulting in winds remaining gentle to moderate out of the east to southeast. A ridge across Florida and the southeast will maintain moderate east to southeast breezes across the Keys.
Closed upper low southeast of the Panhandles over central Texas today will lift north to near the Red River later today and then over southern Oklahoma tonight. The upper low is then forecast to move slowly east into eastern Oklahoma later Sunday and then lift north and east slowly Sunday night. Weakness in the upper flow over the Panhandles this weekend as an upper ridge remains to our west across the southwestern states and across the central Rockies. The closed upper low to our east and the upper ridge to our west will provide the forecast area with a mainly light northerly to north northwesterly upper flow today through Sunday night and possibly northwesterly by Sunday night.
720 AM EDT Sat Jun 5 2021 High pressure will build aloft and to our southeast.
645 AM EDT Sat Jun 5 2021 High pressure will build aloft and to our southeast.
506 AM EDT Sat Jun 5 2021 High pressure will build aloft and to our southeast.
514 AM MDT Sat Jun 5 2021 Low-amplitude ridging covers the northern tier of states, with an upper trough pushing into the Pacific Northwest. Early Sunday morning, the associated cold front will cross the region, bringing with it breezy northwesterly winds. Highs Sunday will depend on the timing of the front, but currently expecting 70s across northwestern SD and the Black Hills to the lower 90s across south central SD. Very warm temperatures will return, with 90s expected area-wide (except for the higher elevations). A weak surface trof will remain stationary across northwestern SD-northeastern WY, with southeast winds ahead of it and north behind it. Isold shra/TS will develop INVOF of the trough today around the Black Hills.
Region remains in the transition zone between the weak upper ridging along the Atlantic coast and the weak closed upper low over the southern plains. Although best convective coverage will be each afternoon with the addition of surface heating, cannot rule out at least a slight chance of precipitation through the overnight hours as the forecast area remains vulnerable to any weak waves ejecting out of the southern plains low and riding up the western side of the weak ridge. A deep trough just to the west of the MS River Valley persists into the first of the week. A deep southerly flow of moisture into the southeast continues ahead of this trough.
Eastern Iowa, northwest Illinois, and far northeast Missouri continue to sit on the northwest edge of high pressure centered over the southeastern US. Little change in the synoptic pattern over the next 24 hours with zonal flow to our north and ridging to our southeast and a closed low over Texas that will slowly lift northeastward over the next 24 hours.
/issued 249 AM CDT Sat Jun 5 2021/ SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday): 500 mb low pressure centered near the Texas Big Bend is expected to gradually shift into Oklahoma during the period. Simultaneously, drier air wrapping around the backside and bottom of the low will move into the BRO CWFA. Any significant precipitation that occurs will likely be over the lower Texas coastal waters, mainly today.
Mid/high clouds will continue to increase today from south to north in response to approaching upper low. /Issued 328 AM CDT Sat Jun 5 2021/ Upper level low presently centered over central TX will be the main feature of interest for this forecast as it slowly lifts to the NNE over the next several days.
644 AM CDT Sat Jun 5 2021 A slow moving low pressure system continues to trod through the Red River Valley in to the ArklaTex this morning with a strong inverted ridge pushing into the CWA from the northeast.
A positively tilted ridge over Great Basin transitions to a negatively tilted low over the S. Moisture is trapped under this ridge and seems to be pooling ahead of the axis which will be forced into our western CWA today. Nevada and this will be riding the ridge into southwest Wyoming through the afternoon and providing some weak ascent along with the moisture advection. Weak shear under the ridge suggests single cell mode initially and storms forming and dying quickly. Hot and dry conditions in the lower layer of the atmosphere will favor gusty outflow winds and boundary interactions will help spread storms to isolated pockets of the lower elevations. The top of the ridge will be suppressed by a dip in the Westerlies overnight with westerly to southwest flow developing on Sunday.
312 AM MDT Sat Jun 5 2021 The ridge axis is expected to move across the Northern Plains today as an upper level trough moves slowly across the Pacific NW. The closed low over the Southern Plains is expected to become more neutrally-tilted throughout the day, allowing more Gulf moisture to advect into the area. Sunday, the upper level trough will begin to push across the Northern Plains while the closed low finally begins to push to the north-northeast towards the Central Plains. Combined with the lee trough along the Front Range, there may be enough instability during the afternoon and evening for a few showers and thunderstorms to develop.
715 AM EDT Sat Jun 5 2021 Aviation - High fire danger into Sunday; warm dry and breezy - Upper Low moving into area adds scattered storms Mon-Wed - Back door cold front does not really cool us off late in week - High fire danger into Sunday; warm dry and breezy- I see mid and upper level ridging prevailing over this area into Sunday night. The upper low,that has been stalled over Texas finally gets sheared out and heads this way. That processes results in increasing heights over this area while the upper low starts heading this way. The dry conditions, already in place, in combination with increased mid level subsidence will likely result in afternoon high temperatures being several degrees warmer than forecast by our computer models.
305 AM MDT Sat Jun 5 2021 The forecast area will be just east of the thermal ridge with another day of record/near breaking warmth expected ahead of a trough pulling into the Pacific Northwest. Highs should be 3 to 6 degrees cooler than yesterday. Diurnal, isolated convection is expected especially over the higher terrain and over the south.
The 1 counter will be the mid-level ridge axis slightly strengthening and nearly overhead. Maximum Temperature will be near normal with highs in the 85-88 degrees inland and lower 80s at the beaches Saturday and a fewer degrees cooler on Sunday. Narrow mid level ridge overhead through the period while surface and low level high remain anchored well offshore.
Western Great Lakes is on the eastern end of broad upper ridge so as periodic convection transverses this pattern, may see some cloud debris spill into area during the morning hours.
613 AM CDT Sat Jun 5 2021 Another very hot day ahead as upper level ridging spreads across the area. While this will not exactly make hings cooler, it could knock a couple of degrees off of the high temperatures.