Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
IR SATL AND SURFACE OBS INDICATES AREAS OF REDUCED VSBYS AND LOWERED CEILINGS IN PLACE OVER THE LOWER RGV AIRPORTS THIS MORNINGS AS THE LIGHT SURFACE WINDS COMBINE WITH DECENT LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE VALUES IN PLACE OVER THE REGION. 500 MB RIDGING WILL PREVAIL OVER THE U. HOWEVER FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE VALUES WILL BE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY WHICH WILL ALLOW MORE SUNSHINE WHICH SHOULD WARM THE HIGHS SUNDAY ON UP INTO THE 80S OVER MUCH OF THE REGION. WILL BE GOING CLOSER TO A BLEND OF THE WARMER GFS AND ECMWF TEMPS SETS AS THE NAM NUMBERS APPEAR A BIT TOO COOL.
WHERE THE LOW CLOUDS DO LINGER LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. THIS MORNING/S MOS HAS TRENDED A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN RECENT RUNS.
PASSAGE OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL ALLOW FOR A SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW AND STRATOCU CIGS TO BEGIN MOVING IN. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES, CHILLY TEMPS, AND PATCHY THIN FOG EXIST ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING UNDER A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHEAST STATES ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. THIS RIDGE WILL SLIDE EAST TODAY AND LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FARTHER INTO THE PLAINS.
Winds will veer to the west by 12z Sunday in advance of the next cold front. The low clouds across the south will limit the warm-up slightly, but we should still see readings in the mid/upper 70s south of the Colorado River. Winds will back to the south early in the evening, but will eventually veer to the west overnight as the next cold front approaches the area. Dry cold front will move through mid morning through early afternoon Sunday.
Mid/Upper ridge is centered over the Southern Plains.
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BE OVER THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. ALTHOUGH A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL UNDERCUT THE RIDGE AND MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE HIGH WIND WARNINGS FOR THE HARLOWTON. A DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND EASTERN AREAS WITH LESSER OR NO CHANCE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AREAS DUE TO A STRONG DOWNSLOPE FLOW. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD ONCE AGAIN SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT LESSENING THE CHANCES FOR ANY SHOWERS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS.
A LEE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS THIS MORNING WILL PROMOTE AN INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS AT THE TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON TO AROUND 10 KNOTS BEFORE THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. A MUCH WARMER DAY ON TAP TODAY AS WAA INCREASES WITH TEMPERATURES TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S INLAND.
A MUCH WARMER DAY ON TAP TODAY AS WAA INCREASES WITH TEMPERATURES TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S INLAND.
AFTER A COLD START WITH LOW TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S INLAND.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL BRING VALLEY RAIN AND HIGH MOUNTAIN SNOW TO THE SIERRA AND PORTIONS OF THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH SUNDAY.
OVER NERN CO IT WILL BE ANOTHER MILD AND DRY DAY HOWEVER 850-700 MB TEMPS ARE FCST TO BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER FOR SOME REASON.
THIS MORNING/S MOS HAS TRENDED A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN RECENT RUNS.
TWO MORE MILD AND WET LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
944 AM EST SAT FEB 7 2015 A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE HAS SET UP OVER THE SOUTHEAST U. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY ALLOWING FOR CONTINUED FAIR WEATHER AND LIGHT EAST NORTHEAST WINDS. WITH HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING EAST OF THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST U. BUT CONTINUE TO RIDGE WEST SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE AREA.
/ISSUED 408 AM EST SAT FEB 7 2015/ HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST TODAY. CLOUDS BEGIN TO THICKEN LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. MAIN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN TIP OF LAKE MICHIGAN SUNDAY MORNING. THIS LOW CENTER WILL MOVE EAST. TEMPS ALSO LOOK TO STAY WELL ABOVE FREEZING SO NO WINTRY PRECIP EXPECTED EITHER.
547 AM EST SAT FEB 7 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE WEATHER MOSTLY QUIET THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. ALTHOUGH HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN U.
938 AM EST SAT FEB 7 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES TODAY. THE HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL ALSO CONTINUE ALONG THE EAST COAST BEACHES OF SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY DUE TO THE BREEZY EASTERLY WIND FLOW. /ISSUED 547 AM EST SAT FEB 7 2015/ HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE WEATHER MOSTLY QUIET THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. ALTHOUGH HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN U.
655 AM EST SAT FEB 7 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM NEW YORK STATE.
LLWS WL RMN POSSIBLE ACRS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NRN AR THIS MRNG.
KBYX RADAR SHOWS A BROKEN ARC OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE ATLANTIC WATERS SOUTH OF THE LOWER KEYS. MOISTURE IN THE LOWEST LEVELS HAS INCREASED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS.
625 AM EST SAT FEB 7 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM NEW YORK STATE.
SLY WINDS 4 TO 12 KTS WILL PREVAIL WITH THE HIGHEST WINDS AND GUSTS TO 22 KTS THIS AFTERNOON. DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE LOW TO MID 40S AS WELL AS AIR TEMPERATURES.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS PRESENT ACROSS THE WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE COUNTRY AND IS IMPACTING THE PLAINS TEMPERATURES GREATLY FOR FEBRUARY.
1043 AM EST SAT FEB 7 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM NEW YORK STATE.
328 AM MST SAT FEB 7 2015 THE PERSISTENT RIDGE GETS FLATTENED AS TWO DISTURBANCES PASS THIS AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY MORNING. MORE WIDESPREAD WILL BE GUSTY WINDS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
LOCAL WSR-88D VAD WIND PROFILES ALSO SUGGEST WEST WINDS OF 30-40 KNOTS WITHIN THE LOWEST 2000 FEET. THESE DOWNSLOPE BREEZES COUPLED WITH THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF AN H85 THERMAL RIDGE AND VERY MILD TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING. RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THIS WEEKEND WITH MINOR EMBEDDED IMPULSES BEFORE A LOW IS SPAWNED FROM THE MAIN FLOW AND CUTS OFF ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN USA. THIS LOW WILL RETROGRADE BACK TOWARD BAJA CALIFORNIA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGING PERSISTS FROM TEXAS CLEAN UP TO SIBERIA.
An enhanced wave of precipitation accompanied with a warm front will spread over north central Idaho and western Montana later this morning which will may allow for some previously shadowed valley regions to receive measurable rainfall throughout the morning hours.
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING AND SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE ARKLAMISS TODAY. LITTLE WILL CHANGE TONIGHT WITH WARMER OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 40S. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE OUT AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE LOW 70S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
ALSO WITH WARMER MAX TEMPS IN THE WARM LAYER. GFS THERMAL PROFILE COOLER THAN THE NAM/RUC AND THIS COLDER SOLUTION PERFORMED BETTER WITH LAST ROUND OF PRECIP. WHILE A SOUTHERN WAVE MAY HELP GENERATE SOME PRECIP IN THE WARMER AIR OVER CENTRAL DAKOTAS. RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE IN FAR SOUTHWESTERN ZONES. BUT COOLER THAN SATURDAY AS MILD COLD ADVECTION BRINGS DAYTIME HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S.
SHORT TERM MODELS ALSO HAVE WARMER TEMPS THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS MUCH OF THE CONUS. AS LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS EASTWARD. THE UPPER RIDGE STRENGTHENS ON SUNDAY.
THIS PUTS CENTRAL ALABAMA ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE AXIS WITH WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL GENERALLY BE 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY.
1028 AM EST SAT FEB 7 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST TODAY BEFORE DRIFTING EAST THROUGH SUNDAY.
WINDS ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL AS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TROUGH DAMPENS AND WEAKENS.
High pressure is the dominant feature with mostly sunny skies.
1024 AM EST SAT FEB 7 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
643 AM EST SAT FEB 7 2015 ADVANCING LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO PULL WARMER AIR OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION THIS WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL FINALLY PULL THE FRONT FARTHER SOUTH TOWARD THE NEW YORK-PENNSYLVANIA STATE LINE BY SUNRISE ON SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL ADVANCE TO THE EAST.
RADAR AND SURFACE OBS SHOW SNOW BANDS HAVE WEAKENED AND HAVE CANCELLED SNOW ADVISORY FOR THE RIDGES.
934 PM EST THU FEB 12 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW.
936 PM EST THU FEB 12 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FOR FRIDAY.
TEMPS SHOULD FALL BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS WILL PASS OVER THE MN ARROWHEAD AND NRN WIS ZONES THIS EVENING BEFORE EXITING TO THE EAST AND ALLOWING WINDS TURN OUT OF THE SOUTH AHEAD OF THE NEXT CLIPPER. AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES HAS DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE SFC COLD FRONT CURRENTLY IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS. THE H85 TROUGH/SFC FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SNOW WILL TRANSLATE EAST ACROSS WESTERN MN THIS EVENING. AND PORTIONS OF US HIGHWAY 2 EAST IN THE HIGH TERRAIN EAST OF ASHLAND.
AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO EASTERN TEXAS THROUGH FRIDAY. /ISSUED 336 PM CST THU FEB 12 2015/ NO REAL ISSUES WITH THE SHORT-TERM PART OF THE FCST WITH SE TX RE- MAINING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGING TO THE WEST. 41 HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE MID MISS VALLEY TONIGHT WITH NORTHEAST WINDS DECREASING.
1026 PM EST THU FEB 12 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FOR FRIDAY.
LONG WAVE RIDGE AXIS WILL STAY ALONG THE WEST COAST.
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 21 40 26 53 / 0 0 0 10 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 18 36 24 49 / 0 0 0 20 OAK RIDGE, TN 18 37 23 46 / 0 0 0 20 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 14 32 18 43 / 20 0 0 40 TN.
THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS HAS FAST NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH RIDGE TO THE WEST AND TROF TO THE EAST. ARCTIC HIGH HAS SHIFTED EAST WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. UPPER RIDGE DRIFTS INTO THE GREAT BASIN WITH THE NORTHERN PLAINS REMAINING ON THE EDGE IN NORTHWEST FLOW. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS SLIGHTLY EAST WITH STRONG UPPER TROF DIVING SOUTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
MIXING WINDS ALONG THE WARM FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION HAS DRIVEN TEMPERATURES TO RECORDS OR NEAR RECORDS AND BILLINGS HAS HIT 60 OR HIGHER 6 TIMES ALREADY IN 2015. OVERNIGHT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS BUILDS BUILDS OVER IDAHO PANHANDLE AND BREAKS DOWN A BIT FRIDAY AS IT SHIFTS EAST. THIS ALLOWS ANOTHER LEESIDE TROUGH TO FORM WHICH PROVIDES GOOD MIXING FOR THE CENTRAL ZONES AND EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S BUT RECORDS ARE A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN THURSDAYS. LATE IN THE DAY WINDS OVER SOUTHEAST MONTANA WILL SHIFT MORE TO THE NORTH AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES INTO THE DAKOTAS WHICH MAY CAP OFF WARMING A FEW DEGREES.
907 PM EST THU FEB 12 2015 HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE NW THIS EVENING. YESTERDAYS COLD FRONT HAS MOVED INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA. THE ARCTIC AIRMASS SHOULD STILL ALLOW FOR LOW WIND CHILL VALUES ACROSS FAR A COLD AND DRY AIRMASS PUSHING INTO THE STATE TODAY BEHIND A COLD FRONT IS RESULTING IN CHILLY AND VERY WINDY CONDITIONS. THE COMBINATION OF THE WINDS AND THE COLD TEMPERATURES ARE RESULTING IN WIND CHILLS IN THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF NORTH GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON.
NEAR THE SAME IS EXPECTED INTO FRIDAY JUST A LITTLE COOLER AND WITH LESS WIND. A CANADIAN RIDGE WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE REGION BY FRIDAY MORNING WITH A LIGHT FREEZE POSSIBLE FROM INTERIOR SE TX TO LOWER ACADIANA AWAY FROM THE COAST, HOWEVER TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY RISE INTO THE 50S AND LOW 60S BY MID DAY WHILE MOISTURE REMAINS LOW.
A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL BRING A LITTLE RAIN TO THE AREA TONIGHT MAINLY NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
533 PM CST THU FEB 12 2015 HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS WILL PASS OVER THE MN ARROWHEAD AND NRN WIS ZONES THIS EVENING BEFORE EXITING TO THE EAST AND ALLOWING WINDS TURN OUT OF THE SOUTH AHEAD OF THE NEXT CLIPPER. AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES HAS DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE SFC COLD FRONT CURRENTLY IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS. THE H85 TROUGH/SFC FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SNOW WILL TRANSLATE EAST ACROSS WESTERN MN THIS EVENING. AND PORTIONS OF US HIGHWAY 2 EAST IN THE HIGH TERRAIN EAST OF ASHLAND.
649 PM EST THU FEB 12 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN DURING THE WEEKEND.
1034 PM EST THU FEB 12 2015 A STRONG BUT DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE OVER THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY.
302 PM MST THU FEB 12 2015 00Z H5 HAND ANALYSIS HAS THE RIDGE AMPLIFIED ALONG THE ENTIRE LEFT COAST OF NOAM WITH THE UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER CHIHUAHUA MEXICO. WATER VAPOR THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS THIS LOW CONTINUING TO RETROGRADE WESTWARD WITH THE A TRUE REX BLOCK EXPECTED TO SET UP OVERNIGHT AS THE RIDGE AXIS DRIFT INLAND AND THE LOW SETTLES OVER THE BAJA REGION. PLENTY OF UPSTREAM ENERGY OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC THAT WILL BE CRASHING INTO THE RIDGE AND BREAKING IT DOWN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE ONLY EXCEPTION TODAY WAS GUNNISON WHERE COLD AIR HAS SETTLED INTO THE BASIN WITH TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO HIT THE FREEZING MARK AT 3PM.
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE OVER THE AREA.
FREEZING TEMPS EXPECTED IN CNTRL LA AND THE LAKES REGION OF SE TX.
531 PM MST THU FEB 12 2015 00Z H5 HAND ANALYSIS HAS THE RIDGE AMPLIFIED ALONG THE ENTIRE LEFT COAST OF NOAM WITH THE UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER CHIHUAHUA MEXICO. WATER VAPOR THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS THIS LOW CONTINUING TO RETROGRADE WESTWARD WITH THE A TRUE REX BLOCK EXPECTED TO SET UP OVERNIGHT AS THE RIDGE AXIS DRIFT INLAND AND THE LOW SETTLES OVER THE BAJA REGION. PLENTY OF UPSTREAM ENERGY OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC THAT WILL BE CRASHING INTO THE RIDGE AND BREAKING IT DOWN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE ONLY EXCEPTION TODAY WAS GUNNISON WHERE COLD AIR HAS SETTLED INTO THE BASIN WITH TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO HIT THE FREEZING MARK AT 3PM.
/ISSUED 259 PM CST Thu Feb 12 2015/ (Tonight and Friday) Quiet weather with warmer temperatures on Friday. With clearing skies, light winds, and dry low level air, temperatures will be able to drop into the 30s most areas tonight with some low lying areas able to drop to near freezing.
732 PM EST THU FEB 12 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FOR FRIDAY.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD, AS A COLD CANADIAN AIR MASS SETTLES IN OVER THE AREA AND DRIES OUT THE LOW LEVELS. SFC FLOW BECOMES LGT SWLY DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS ON FRIDAY, AS RIDGE AXIS PUSHES EAST.
939 PM EST THU FEB 12 2015 A DRY COLD FRONT CROSSING TONIGHT, WILL DELIVER ABUNDANT DRY AIR ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA, AS DEWPOINTS WILL FALL BELOW 50F FOR MOST SPOTS BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
NORTHEAST WINDS 5 KNOTS OVERNIGHT TO GRADUALLY BECOME SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH BY 13/18Z AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST.
940 PM EST THU FEB 12 2015 SKIES ARE GENERALLY CLEAR WITH TEMPERATURES AVERAGING IN THE LOWER 60S WITH NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH ALONG THE ISLAND CHAIN. THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS IS ALIGNED IN NORTH FLORIDA AND THE ADJACENT GULF AND ATLANTIC OCEAN. WHILE AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM THE UPPER GREAT PLAINS SOUTH SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. OUR AREA WILL LIE TO THE WEST OF A DEEP MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS JUST OFFSHORE OF THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND THE WESTERN BAHAMAS. A COLD FRONT DRAPED ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA AND THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC AND GULF WATERS WILL PRESS SOUTHWARD. AS A LARGE REGION OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER GREAT PLAINS BUILDS SOUTHEASTWARD AND BRIDGES THE FRONT LATE FRIDAY OR FRIDAY EVENING.
836 PM CST Thu Feb 12 2015 Arctic high pressure centered over our area early this evening has allowed winds to subside with an increase in cirrus from northwest to southeast as our next weather system moves into the Missouri River Valley. Persistent ridging up to Pacific coast into Alaska and downstream troffing over at least the eastern half of North America will help ensure this fact.
918 PM CST THU FEB 12 2015 THE 03Z SURFACE ANALYSIS AND IR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED THAT MAINLY THIN HIGH CLOUDS WERE MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY INTO THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF A WEAK SHORT WAVE AT 500 MILLIBARS.
A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PRESS THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH GUSTY NW/N WINDS BEHIND IT. N/NW WINDS 20-25 KTS AND GUSTY BEHIND A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TONIGHT WILL SLOWLY DECREASE TO 10-15 KTS DURING DAYLIGHT ON FRI.
411 PM MST THU FEB 12 2015 AFTERNOON GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE FROM THE CENTRAL CA COAST THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA. SURGES OF MID/UPPER LEVEL PACIFIC MOISTURE CONTINUE TO TOP THE RIDGE AND SPREAD SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. A WARM FRONT EXTENDED NORTH-SOUTH ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. 12Z SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT PROGGING THE SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE WESTERN CONUS UPPER RIDGE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
633 PM EST THU FEB 12 2015 A STRONG BUT DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE OVER THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY.
541 PM CST THU FEB 12 2015 UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RUC ANALYSIS REVEALS AMPLIFIED PATTERN FEATURING WEST COAST RIDGE AND BROAD UPSTREAM TROF ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH AMERICA.
420 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL SKIRT NORTHERN OHIO TONIGHT AS IT TRACKS SOUTHEAST FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE LOW WILL TRAIL A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AS IT MOVES EAST TO THE MID ATLANTIC.
138 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS QUEBEC TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE OHIO VALLEY.
700 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015 A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND WILL PUSH OFFSHORE BY TUESDAY MORNING.
DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TUESDAY BEFORE A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES BRINGS PERIODS OF GUSTY WINDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF LINCOLN COUNTY WITH THESE DISTURBANCES.
WARM FRONT BECOMES DIFFUSED DURING THE DAY TUESDAY AS IT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
359 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015 CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES TROUGH OVER LAKE WINNIPEG INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY/EASTERN MONTANA WHILE RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE ROCKIES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER OUR AREA. QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED WITH WINDS DIMINISHING AND UPPER RIDGE SLIDING SLOWLY TO THE EAST. RIDGE WORKS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AS LOW PASSES OVER THE CANADIAN ROCKIES INTO THE CANADIAN PLAINS BRINGING SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A POTENT COLD FRONT. STRONG COLD FRONT AND AFFILIATED UPPER SHORT WAVE CONTINUE THE APPROACH TUESDAY EVENING.
A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS MOVED EASTWARD OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THIS TROUGH IS SUPPORTING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER QUEBEC. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SOUTHWEST FROM THIS LOW ALONG THE EAST COAST THROUGH CENTRAL GEORGIA AND INTO ALABAMA. WITH THIS HIGH PARKED OVER THE AREA. THE TEMPS ON TUESDAY WILL BE RIGHT AT AVERAGE AS WELL WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. CLOSED LOW OFF BAJA CALIFORNIA THIS AFTERNOON IS FORECAST TO OPEN UP AND WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO SE U.
RADAR DOES SHOW A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG AND NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL RANGING FROM THE MID 70S TO THE LOWER 80S. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRACK ACROSS THE PLAINS TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WE WILL SEE A TROUGH AXIS PASS THROUGH THE AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. WHICH WILL TURN OUR GUSTY SOUTHWEST WIND TO NORTHWEST AND THE WIND SHOULD BE TOUCH LIGHTER AS THE TROUGH AXIS PASSES THROUGH. THE WIND WILL THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE LATE TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION WITH A SOUTHEAST WIND BY LATE TUESDAY MORNING AS THE HIGH SLIPS OFF TO THE EAST. SURFACE ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE LOW AS CAN BE SEEN BY DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 30S.
LOOKING AT WARMER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AND HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE NUMBERS. STRONG/DEEP UPPER TROUGHS TO THE WEST TO PROVIDE LARGE SCALE ASCENT IS *NOT* A NECESSARY CONDITION FOR SVR STORMS! THAT SAID.
204 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS QUEBEC TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE OHIO VALLEY.
1144 AM MDT MON MAR 30 2015 18Z TAF CYCLE ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A STRAY TS WILL DEVELOP AROUND THE HIGH TERRAIN AFTER 20Z AND CONTINUE THRU APPROXIMATELY SUNSET.
247 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015 HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES INTO THE WEEKEND. SFC MAP THIS MORNING HAS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA. WITH A WEAKENING COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE.
COLD FRONT WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA THAT IS ATTEMPTING TO MOVE SOUTH LOOKS TO BE STALLING AND STRETCHING EAST ACROSS NORTHERN LA/MS/AL. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT THIS BOUNDARY IS ASSOCIATED WITH IS SO FAR NORTH AND MOVING EAST SO MUCH THAT THERE WILL NOT BE ENOUGH PUSH FOR THE FRONT TO MAKE IT TO THE CWA. TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE A CONTINUATION OF DRY AND WARM PERIOD AS WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TRACKS EAST ACROSS THE GULF COAST.
BROAD TROUGH MOVING INLAND ON NORTHWEST COAST TONIGHT APPROACHES OUR REGION BY TOMORROW NIGHT. THIS APPEARS TO BE A MORE TYPICAL RIDGE CRASHER /THOUGH UNSEASONABLE/ AND NOT AS HIGH IMPACT AS THE HIGH WIND WE HAD OVER THE WEEKEND.
A PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES TO NEVADA ON TUESDAY.
155 PM MDT MON MAR 30 2015 LATEST UPPER AIR ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES VERY LITTLE CLOUD COVER UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE GREAT BASIN. WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING ONTO THE PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE A TROUGH WAS PROGRESSING THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS. AHEAD OF THE TROUGH BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS WERE OBSERVED. NORTH OF THE TROUGH NORTHWEST WINDS WERE ALSO BREEZY. TEMPERATURES IN THE 925-850MB LAYER ARE AROUND 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT. HOWEVER WITH DEW POINTS FALLING TO THE LOW 20S AND 30S. AM THINKING LOWS WILL ONLY BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT AT BEST. THEREFORE DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS DESPITE THE LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES.
334 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015 CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FEATURES WESTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MID MS RIVER VALLEYS AND SLOWLY PUSHING EAST. HIGH PRESSURE AND CLEAR SKIES WILL BE IN PLACE. EXPECT A RIDGE VALLEY SPLIT TONIGHT WITH A DIFFERENCE OF 7 DEGREES IN THE DEEPER VALLEYS OF NORTHEAST KENTUCKY. SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD BE ON THE INCREASE AS A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS BY THE AREA WITH THE BULK OF THE CLOUDS AND RAIN TO THE NORTHEAST. AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH.
THE HIGHEST WINDS MAINLY ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS.
LOWS SHOULD RECOVER A BIT THE NEXT FEW NIGHTS COMPARED TO THE COOLER READINGS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TODAY.
FURTHER NORTH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST THIS MORNING, THE DRIEST AIR WILL BECOME DISPLACED BY SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEW POINT AIR ON THE RETURN FLOW SIDE OF THE SURFACE ANTICYCLONE.
350 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015 UPPER RIDGE OVER PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND UPPER TROUGH OFF COAST OF BAJA WILL REMAIN TIED AS MAJOR TROUGH EASTERN PACIFIC KICKS BOTH EAST INTO MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MIDWEEK.
WV IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW THE WEAK RIDGE STRETCHED ACROSS TEXAS. THE MIDLEVEL TROUGH OFF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA WILL FILL AND EJECT ACROSS TEXAS DURING THE DAY TUESDAY.
THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WATER VAPOR SHOWS UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PAC NW/NRN ROCKIES WITH DRY NW FLOW THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS. STRONG TROF NOTED JUST OFFSHORE THE PAC NW. TROF IS LOCATED OVER THE ERN DAKOTAS WITH GUSTY NW WINDS ACROSS THE WRN/CNTRL DAKOTAS. UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT EWD INTO THE NRN ROCKIES/NRN PLAINS ON TUESDAY WHILE UPPER TROF WORKING THROUGH THE PAC NW. SFC TROF/THERMAL RIDGE WILL SHIFT INTO ERN MT/ERN WY BY THE END OF THE DAY WITH TEMPS WARMING WELL INTO THE 70S OVER THE CWFA. SHARP COLD FRONT WILL ENTER OUR WRN ZONES AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH IMPRESSIVE PRES RISES UP TO 8MB/3HR CREATING SOME VERY GUSTY NW WINDS BY MORNING.