Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Broad high pressure centered over the central CONUS will begin to shunt increasing warmth and humidity over the Upper Ohio Valley Region during the near term period. The potential for isolated to scattered convection will increase with the feature, but warm mid level temperature is expected to provide inhibition, and weaken any MCS which the high res model is developing off the Great Lakes. Improved boundary layer moisture and instability with a marginally cooler mid level should be more conducive for showers and storms, although limited deep layer shear should keep the threat of severe isolated.
Overall, slightly preferred the lower guidance high numbers as most models, especially the GFS, seem to be too dry in the boundary layer and too deep with vertical mixing.
713 AM EDT THU JUL 21 2016 A weak cold front will sag south of the area today, then slightly drier high pressure will briefly build in from the north. Atlantic high pressure will rebuild over the weekend while an inland trough prevails.
A cold front will be sagging slowly south into central mn and adjoining areas of west central WI late this afternoon. Can't really say it's going to be cooler tonight after the storms this morning, but lows tonight are progged from the lower 60s in central MN to the lower 70s in southern MN.
Broad high pressure centered over the central CONUS will continue to shunt increasing warmth and humidity over the Upper Ohio Valley Region today. Improved boundary layer moisture and instability with a marginally cooler mid level should be more conducive for showers and storms, although limited deep layer shear should keep the threat of severe isolated.
The overall pattern will remain unchanged through Friday as the broad mid/upper level ridge holds over the southern U. with some troughing over the western Atlantic Ocean. This will keep the low level ridge axis north of the region with the easterly synoptic flow persisting, albeit beginning to weaken some which should allow the west coast sea breeze to begin moving inland a little further each day. Temperatures will remain near to a couple of degrees above normal with daytime highs from near 90 along the coast to the lower and middle 90s inland, while overnight lows are in the 70s to around 80 degrees.
1154 AM EDT THU JUL 21 2016 High pressure over West Virginia early this morning will drift eastward off the East Coast today. This will allow a warm front to lift northeastward across the region through this evening. A weak cold front will sag southward across the central Great Lakes Friday night.
TFJ Montana will be on the northern periphery today of a large upper ridge that covers most of the nation. An upper trough moves into the Pacific Northwest tonight and turns the flow aloft to the southwest.
The upper ridge continues to dominate the weather pattern across much of the CONUS. There are some subtle features to point out, including a moisture trough that has set up stretching from Illinois southeastward into the southern Appalachian states.
A dome of high pressure will cover much of the country through the weekend resulting in hot weather conditions across the region.
Otherwise, models were in good agreement in showing a mostly dry period today through tonight as the area will be on the northern periphery of a large area of high pressure that was covering much of the nation. , pushing a strong cold front through W MT Fri. night as the cold front sweeps through the area.
Another mild day is expected today as an upper level trough remains over the West Coast. A warming trend will begin Friday as a ridge of high pressure builds into California. The marine layer depth is only about 1000 feet per the Fort Ord profiler, and given the limited stratus inland, expect mostly sunny skies today and slightly warmer temperatures across the district, with 60s at the coast. High pressure is forecast to build in over California from the desert Southwest beginning on Friday.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 99 74 97 75 / 20 30 20 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 96 72 94 73 / 20 20 10 10 Oak Ridge, TN 96 72 95 73 / 20 10 10 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 93 65 93 68 / 10 10 10 10.
Main story will be less coverage of showers today and Friday across the coastal plains and high temperatures 1-2 degrees warmer this afternoon. Overall synoptic pattern across the CONUS features a well established and advertised mid- to upper-level ridge over the central plains. Stronger ridging and capping today and tomorrow will further suppress any remote rain chance for south-central Texas. In concert with stronger ridging, low-level temperatures will increase slightly today and persist into the weekend. Rio Grande plains will be another 1-3 degrees above the metro areas and top out in the low 100s.
Based on the convection and the strength of the short wave trough that is causing all of this as it moves into the western Great Lakes, the surface front is now shown to be down into Iowa by the models.
The large high pressure area aloft remains centered over the central and southern high plains through today and tonight.
as the region lies out ahead of a lee-side trough currently over the eastern half of Colorado. This trough will remain to our west thru the overnight hours and eventually shift east thru the day Sunday. Latest upper air analysis shows the ridge now over the Central Plains with the closed low now over Northern Texas. Tonight lows will be similar to last night due to favorable radiational cooling conditions in place despite the air mass being warmer. Behind the trough northwest winds will be breezy but not as strong as today. Highs will be a few degrees warmer than today as the cooler air from the surface to the east moves further from the Tri-State Area.
Brief high pressure will return today before another round of very weak precipitation pushes through northwest/west-central Montana this evening.
Weak high pressure will bring dry conditions through Sunday.
1103 PM CST Sat Nov 12 2016 Expansive high pressure remains in control across the eastern half of the US this afternoon, with clear skies, light winds, and seasonable temperatures across the region. With the center of the high slowly settling south tonight, expect temperatures to quickly fall into and through the 40s this evening with a near-perfect radiational cooling setup. After a cool start, temperatures should warm nicely into the low 60s on Sunday as winds become southerly.
Temperatures look to rise to above freezing at all locations by 10 am, so will let the current headline run its course. High pressure is currently poised from the Arklatex region to the Ohio Valley. Aloft, an upper level low is cutting off near the Tennessee Valley, with another weaker cutoff low spiraling near the Texas/Oklahoma border. In between these two features, resides a ridge, currently centered across the Midwest. Some valleys are already in the lower 20s, with another 4 hours or so of cooling to take place, yielding some upper teens in at least a few spots by dawn. Despite the cold start, highs will make it back into the lower 60s for most locations today.
As mentioned in the previous discussion, the steady winds and moderating airmass will lead to a warmer night temperaturewise with lows averaging in the 30s. Current records are in the low 80s and are out of reach.
A weak cold front will follow late tonight turning winds northerly and bringing in slightly drier air to kick off the new week.
Satellite imagery shows the mid/upper level low over the Texas Panhandle moving slowly eastward. The low will move into Oklahoma by Sunday morning and through the Ozarks Sunday evening. The upper level jet streak will move to the northeast tonight into Sunday as the upper low moves eastward.
Another clear and cool night can be expected across the area as high pressure remains in control.
Sfc temps were several degrees warmer compared to 24 hours ago in E Iowa/NW Illinois due to steady 5-10 mph SW winds.
Good radiational cooling conditions combined with dew points in the mid and upper 20s will allow for lows to drop solidly below freezing. Dry conditions continue through the end of the weekend as we sit between two weak upper lows that are starved of moisture. Lows on Sunday night will be in the low to mid 30s.
With dry and cool air in the lower levels, overnight lows are again expected to reach the middle 40s acrs central LA to middle 50s lower southeast TX. Satellite imagery depicting sunny skies inland, while considerable cirrus continues to stream northeast over the western gulf waters and through south Texas associated with a weak north Texas upper low. Synoptic pattern in place yielding a weak northerly flow in the the low levels, and near zonal to slightly SE aloft.
1146 PM CST Sat Nov 12 2016 Quiet weather will persist across central and southeast Illinois overnight with sprawling high pressure across the region. 1034 mb Canadian high pressure over central IL will drift southeast into the mid MS and Ohio river valleys by Sunday.
/issued 351 AM CST Sun Nov 13 2016/ Have an upper ridge centered over the CA Coast with a low over OK. The ridge will build east with warmer and dryer conditions expected.
1012 PM MST Sat Nov 12 2016 06Z TAF CYCLE An upper low pressure system will exit eastern New Mexico and move into west Texas and Oklahoma, leaving dry conditions and VFR ceiling/visibility ranges.
We remain within split flow with the main northern belt of westerlies near the Canadian border, and the southern branch in the far southern United States, with an upper trough axis along with a closed low to the south of the CWA passing east of the CWA by late this afternoon, ushering in a weak cold front. This will turn out to be a warm day as the weak cold front moves in and bisects our CWA by afternoon. Lows tonight should be in the 30s for the most part with not a lot of cold air behind the cold front.
Farther north where drier air remains, temperatures will approach freezing and areas of frost will develop.
Lingering influence of high pressure will support near-freezing temperatures once again tonight, mainly along/southeast of the KS Turnpike. The big story will be a return to well above normal temperatures, as upper high pressure approaches from the west. Given how models continue to dig this system, wouldn't be surprised if the slower solutions verify, which would favor better shower/thunderstorm chances SE KS Thu night-Fri, as richer Gulf moisture advects north ahead of the strong cold front. Much cooler weather expected Fri-Sat in wake of the system.
Latest KY mesonet obs show temps ranging from the lower 20s in normally colder areas to 30-35 in some locations.
High pressure will continue to move out of the region as an upper level trough approaches, keeping winds up with relatively tight press gradient. As 500 mb trough approaches, accompanying surface cold front will begin to move into NW portions of the state Sun night, shifting winds northwesterly. With conditions as dry as they are, only consequence of associated lift with the front/trough will be mid to high level clouds.
While the SGF ASOS hasn't officially touched the freezing mark, mesonet sites across southern Greene County including south Springfield into Webster and Christian Counties have been reporting temperatures down between 30 and 32 as of 1:30 am. We will see another fantastic day with sunny skies and afternoon highs back in the lower 60s.
351 AM MST Sun Nov 13 2016 The upper trough currently moving east of the Rockies and across the northern high plains today kicks the low out of the southern plains.
342 AM CST Sun Nov 13 2016 A 1028 mb ridge axis stretching from Arkansas along the Ohio River Valley will settle slowly southward today and tonight while a 1000 mb low moves from southern Manitoba eastward across southern Canada. clear skies can be expected until evening as high pressure dominates the weather pattern. high cloud cover will start to develop ahead of a weak dry cold front approaching central IL from the northwest. Moisture return should be too weak for any precipitation ahead of the front due to the high pressure lingering just south of the Ohio River. Highs today expected to reach the upper 50s as SSW flow begins to advect warmer air back into the area. the colder temperatures associated with the lighter winds nearest the high pressure ridge.
330 AM EST Sun Nov 13 2016 Cold temperatures will mainly remain above freezing this morning.
current observations and visible satellite loop shows a weak cold front moving southeast across Montana and Idaho. This front will push across the area early Sunday morning resulting in slightly cooler temperatures across the area and some cloudiness. No precipitation is expected as the associated upper level trough weakens and remains north of the region.
another high pressure ridge begins to build back into the state Mon setting up the extended for some more dry weather.
A weak front will also move by this morning bringing a little cooler temperatures but still quite mild for this time of year.
An upper cut-off low over the Southern Appalachians this morning will continue to slide eastward into the Carolinas through the day. The increased cloud cover in the eastern and southeastern counties have kept temperatures up overnight and will consequently keep high temperatures in these areas slightly cooler this afternoon.
However, as the mid-level low over NW Texas links up with a passing trough over the Mississippi Valley, it will shift across TX through the overnight and Sunday. Lowering condensation pressure deficits in the low and mid levels with slightly greater net negative omega along 295-310K isentropic theta surfaces should allow for more precipitation to reach the ground across the Rio Grande plains, southern Edwards Plateau, and along and south of the I-10 corridor overnight and through mid- day Sunday. Rainfall activity will decrease by late Sunday afternoon as the trough shifts east.
southerly surface winds are expected to return across the region behind the high with scattered cloud cover associated with the upper wave.
/issued 311 AM CST Sun Nov 13 2016/ Strong radiational cooling has allowed temperatures to fall below the freezing mark across much of the area north of I-40 early this morning. The synoptic pattern resembles a mini omega block over the central CONUS, with a mid-level anticyclone over MO/IA flanked by a pair of upper-level lows. Given the amount of subsidence between these cyclones, we should see minimal cloud cover today, allowing temperatures to warm quickly after sunrise. High temperatures will top out in the low/mid 60s across much of the Mid-South with winds remaining light and variable. We are expecting temperatures a few degrees cooler than this morning's lows and we're now beyond the date of the normal first freeze.
A slight increase in low level moisture will increase the amount of cloud cover for today in the wake of a cold front passage.
1206 AM EST Sun Nov 13 2016 High pressure will bring fair weather to the region to start off the new week, with temperatures warming into the 50s. High pressure and fair weather expected through Sunday. Ridge of high pressure currently situated S/W of the area with a low well to the north putting the area in a westerly flow. For tonight conditions will be chilly with overnight lows near or just below freezing in most areas. then sunny and warmer weather can be expected on Sunday as high pressure builds over the southeastern states and southwest flow brings warmer air in from the midwest.
134 AM MST Sun Nov 13 2016 Water vapor shows upper trof moving through the nrn Rockies into the nrn plains with upper ridge rebuilding into the pac nw.
Tonight an approaching cold front, which will bring modified Pacific air, will move through the region dry. Northwest winds will pick up to 15 to 30 mph on Sunday as cooler air continues to move into the region behind the cold front. Look for highs from the lower 50s northwest to mid 60s south central and southeast.
Meanwhile, an associated cold front observed over the western Dakotas as of 08z will advance southeast through the mid Missouri Valley this afternoon and tonight. The cold front will not reach our forecast area until mid afternoon, allowing high temperatures to warm into the mid to upper 60s ahead of it.
506 AM MST Sun Nov 13 2016 The upper trough currently moving east of the Rockies and across the northern high plains today kicks the low out of the southern plains.
A tightening pressure gradient ahead of an approaching trough of low pressure from the north will bring breezy southwest winds to the area today.
622 AM EST Sun Nov 13 2016 High pressure will bring fair weather to the region to start off the new week, with temperatures warming into the 50s. High pressure nosing into the northeastern U.
An mid level high was over Nebraska and a closed low was near the Mexico/New Mexico border. At the surface, high pressure was off to our southeast, with modest south/southwest flow in our area. A lee side trough was over the High Plains and will move east tonight, followed by a weak cold front. Southerly winds ahead of that trough should help keep temperatures up tonight, with lows mainly in the 30s. By Sunday evening, that weak cold front is expected to stretch from east central Minnesota into western Kansas.
A cold front will move across western Nebraska today. Temperatures slightly cooler north and slightly warmer from North Platte to Ainsworth and east. Light north winds over night but the ridge to the west shifts east with warmer temperatures aloft. Low temperatures tonight in the lower 30s.
Weak low pressure/trough now located off the Florida east coast with a tight pressure gradient from extreme northeast FL into Ga and SC. Winds will become offshore tonight as the coastal low pressure moves north of the area with drier air being advected into the area.
Clouds and a slight northwest breeze may prevent full radiational cooling as we have seen on past nights when winds go light, but still hedged closer to some of the lower guidance values, especially in our favored cool areas of northwest Iowa.
So with ample sunshine and decent boundary layer mixing, expect warmer temperatures today with highs in mid 60s for much of the area. Thus expect lows will probably hold in the lower 40s.
continued dry with colder than normal temperatures tonight followed by slightly warmer than normal temperatures Sunday. Currently thinking is that the high clouds will be thin and have little affect on temperatures in our south. After a rather cool start, temperatures will warm rapidly and top out a couple degrees warmer than normal.
403 AM CST Sun Nov 13 2016 The western extension of an upper level trough moving southeast across the northeastern has been cut off near the Tennessee Valley and will be slowly moving east today.
1132 PM CST Sat Nov 12 2016 Another fine autumn day thanks to a large ridge of high pressure sprawled across the Plains/Upper Mississippi River region. Warm air advection tonight into Sunday ahead of an approaching cold front moving through the Northern Plains.
The well defined Dakotas upper level ridge shown nicely in water vapor imagery will be suppressed into Sunday as the current CO short wave is pushed into the Plains ahead of the advancing NW CONUS wave. This will continue to drive return flow through the MO Valley with the thermal ridge reaching IA by midday.
Then a ridge position shifts into the area which may tend to stagnate the airmass through tonight. Water vapor imagery depicts the sheared trough axis/circulation across NC and TN into northern MS. The sheared trough/circulation shifts east tonight clearing the sky.
410 AM CST Sun Nov 13 2016 Looking at the upper level pattern this morning there is a mini omega block of sorts with one upper low over W Oklahoma and the other upper low over the S Appilachain's. Upper level ridging was between the two lows over AR/MO.
Drier low/mid level air is being wrapped around this feature into the Lower MS Valley. At the surface, a ridge of high pressure is positioned from the ArkLaTex through the Delmarva.
651 AM EST Sun Nov 13 2016 High pressure will continue across the region for the remainder of the weekend.
1217 AM EST Sun Nov 13 2016 A large area of high pressure over the Ohio Valley will remain in place through Sunday.
403 AM CST Sun Nov 13 2016 Surface analysis early this morning depicts sprawling high pressure over much of the central and eastern lower 48 states while a low pressure center meanders over southern Saskatchewan province. A trailing cold front from this low pressure center extends SSW through eastern MT and over the Northern Rockies. Aloft, a fairly large H% ridge axis is aligned nearly along the Mississippi River with weak H5 lows over northern portions of the Gulf Coast states and another over the TX/OK panhandles. A weak trough axis is just in the lee of the Northern Rockies, in the vicinity of the surface front.
559 AM EST Sun Nov 13 2016 High pressure and a dry airmass will remain in place across the region through the first part of the week as temperatures remain slightly above normal.
The lower levels begin to dry up heading northeast along the Upper Texas coast and expect most of this activity to remain virga, but brief -RA may be possible at LBX mid to late morning with short term guidance showing these elevated showers streaming along the coast through early afternoon. High clouds streaming in from the W/SW will continue given the persistent upper low well out to the west.
Temperatures will be a little cooler than yesterday, but still well above seasonal averages.
Will continue to keep highs in the 50s in that area, but further south, particularly the southwestern counties, will be much warmer. With 925mb temps back into the teens C, west winds, and plenty of sunshine think that highs in the 60s will be possible south of the Highway 2 corridor.
An upper trough axis moving over Tennessee this afternoon is forecast to cut off tonight and then move east into the southern Appalachian Mountains on Sunday. At the same time, surface ridging will maintain an ~easterly flow at the surface and low levels across central Alabama. There will be a north-south gradient in cloud coverage tonight and Sunday, with locations nearest the Alabama/Georgia state line holding both the highest coverage of clouds and the longest persistence of cloudiness during this time frame. The cloud gradient will influence temperatures tonight and Sunday as well, with warmer lows and cooler highs expected toward the Jerk state line, opposite toward the Mississippi state line. A progressive upper-level pattern is progged through the remainder of the week, with a dry longwave trough early-week followed by a mid- week ridge.
1027 PM MST Sat Nov 12 2016 06Z TAF CYCLE An upper low pressure system will exit eastern New Mexico and move into west Texas and Oklahoma, leaving dry conditions and VFR ceiling/visibility ranges in most places.
632 AM EST Sun Nov 13 2016 A pressure ridge will extend through the Ohio River Valley today, directing cold air into the forecast area. An upper low will move over the area today, producing periods of light rain in many areas.
351 AM CST Sun Nov 13 2016 Have an upper ridge centered over the CA Coast with a low over OK. The ridge will build east with warmer and dryer conditions expected.
556 AM EST Sun Nov 13 2016 High pressure builds to the south of the region today, sliding offshore tonight.
433 AM EST Sun Nov 13 2016 High pressure will continue across the region for the remainder of the weekend.
A few locations may reach freezing prior to 06Z, but for the most part the timing should be fine. Used the lowest temperature guidance I could find, which was the WModel.
514 AM EST Sun Nov 13 2016 A pressure ridge will extend through the Ohio River Valley today, directing cold air into the forecast area. An upper low will move over the area today, producing periods of light rain in many areas.
428 AM EST Sun Nov 13 2016 High pressure builds to the south of the region today, sliding offshore tonight.