Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
An upper level trough over the northeastern CONUS will remain in place throughout the short term period. Thanksgiving may be the warmest day of the week as temperatures may be able to get above freezing.
359 AM EST Fri Nov 18 2022 High pressure will remain over the area through today.
(Today and Tonight) A strong cold front is marching south across the region early this morning.
The arrival of this high is also leading to winds increasing and expect 15 to 20 knots over all of our waters for the overnight with speeds of 10 to 15 mph over the Keys. High pressure will settle into the southeast U.
1153 PM CST Thu Nov 17 2022 As broad mid level troffing continues across much of the CONUS, much below average temperatures will continue in the short term. Impulses of energy within the trof will be the impetus behind additional surges of arctic air sweeping into the PAH forecast area. An elongated area of high pressure will reside just south of our region Fri/Fri night, keeping some semblance of a pressure gradient going. A second dry surface fropa late Sat/Sat eve should result in the center of high pressure being over us early Sun. High pressure just west of the PAH forecast area will move overhead late in the weekend.
1058 PM EST Thu Nov 17 2022 Scattered snow showers are expected Friday with a crossing cold front. These should gradually end overnight as the trough exits.
1027 PM CST Thu Nov 17 2022 (This evening through Friday) Current surface analysis shows the arctic cold front currently in the northern Texas Panhandle and is forecast to enter the northern portion of the CWA around 02z this evening. Strong cold air advection behind the front will lead to temperatures in the low 20s in the northwestern zones and the mid to upper 20s elsewhere tonight. The influx of colder air and persistent cloud cover will keep afternoon highs ranging from below freezing in the southwestern Texas Panhandle to the mid to upper 30s in the Rolling Plains and South Plains.
1102 PM CST Thu Nov 17 2022 (This evening through Friday) The main headline will remain another round of freezing temperatures across the area for tonight. In fact, another cold front will bring some more cold air across the region on Friday.
1237 AM EST Fri Nov 18 2022 Scattered snow showers are expected Friday with a crossing cold front. These should gradually end overnight as the trough exits.
High pressure will continue to build into the area today and cold air advection will keep temperatures on the cold side for highs today. In fact unseasonably cold with high temperatures near or breaking records for lowest highs in the low to mid 30s today.
Key message over the 48 hours will be cold today but warmer tomorrow. Models this morning were similar with each other and in good agreement with previous runs in moving an upper level trough south across the Central Plains today. Early morning cloud cover across southwest Kansas will quickly give way to clearing skies from north to south this afternoon as this upper level trough passes.
300 AM EST Fri Nov 18 2022 Scattered to numerous snow showers are expected today with a crossing cold front.
247 AM CST Fri Nov 18 2022 This morning, a large longwave mid/upper trough continue to lumber over the eastern 2/3rds of the CONUS reinforcing below average temperatures across much of the country, including the central plains. Continued CAA throughout the day today will lead to afternoon temps struggling to rise up to the freezing mark.
Morning temps will be slightly warmer along the coast with 50s from Brevard southward. If upper clouds linger across east central Florida overnight, lows could be slightly warmer than forecast.
Surface cold front moved south of our CWA this afternoon but extensive stratus clouds have formed over most of the area this evening except in the Magic Valley.
A deep upper level trough is sweeping through the eastern US today with a broad trough axis holding north of Florida through the weekend. At the surface, a sprawling ridge building into the southeastern US is supporting continued north and northeasterly low level flow over the Florida Peninsula.
This feature is driving another reinforcing cold front south.
1051 PM CST Thu Nov 17 2022 (This evening through Friday night) Cold front will continue to move south across the rest of the Panhandles this afternoon. Some flurries will be possible across the area as the cold front squeezes out what moisture the atmosphere has in it. Freezing drizzle would not be out of the question, mainly in the west for a brief period overnight. But the cold air will only deepen during the day Friday in which the freezing drizzle if any should end and only flurries remain.
Aloft, large scale troughing has established itself across the CONUS with upshear ridging off the west coast and Alaska. Today will feature continued dry and cool conditions as broad troughing remains established across the country. Lows in the lower to mid 20's will be common underneath clear skies and light winds.
547 AM EST Fri Nov 18 2022 Scattered to numerous snow showers are expected today with a crossing cold front. The highest chances for snow showers are expected north of I 80 where more favorable moisture is progged, though a few snow showers are possible as far south as PIT as a limited amount of moisture increases in the dendritic growth region.
A weak cold front can be noted on obs and satellite across the Ohio River Valley southward toward northern Arkansas. That front will continue to sag south and work through our area today keeping highs about 5 degrees cooler than yesterday.
Currently, one of many embedded areas of low pressure is pushing south across the Northern Plains this morning, maintaining wintry conditions with cold temperatures and scattered snow showers.
954 AM EST Fri Nov 18 2022 A cold front moves through this morning, bringing snow showers to the area. High pressure builds in over the weekend and temperatures plummet with overnight lows in the teens. The start of the work week looks dry and temperatures begin to rebound warmer. At the start of the period, the cold front is now moving through the forecast area. Temperatures only reach the low 30s again but wind chills will be in the teens to low 20s. Mean trof pivots thru the Great Lakes Saturday with a northwesterly flow developing across the area. Clouds to accompany a secondary cold front which reinforces the cold air. Expect Saturday's highs to range from the lower 30s northwest to the upper 30s southeast.
These low clouds are expected to stick around throughout the day, resulting in little to no solar heating and cold temperatures remaining over the region, with highs near freezing for most areas on the Caprock and between 35 and 40F east of the escarpment. Therefore, we have opted to remove light freezing drizzle from the grids while retaining light snow for this evening and the early overnight hours.
Lower level ridging gets reinforced over Texas today into Saturday leading to some cold advection across South Central Texas by Saturday. Moisture overruns this surface ridging.
Key message over the 48 hours will be cold today but warmer tomorrow. Models this morning were similar with each other and in good agreement with previous runs in moving an upper level trough south across the Central Plains today. Early morning cloud cover across southwest Kansas will quickly give way to clearing skies from north to south this afternoon as this upper level trough passes. Saturday will be sunny and warmer.
455 AM EST Fri Nov 18 2022 Scattered to numerous snow showers are expected today with a crossing cold front. The highest chances for snow showers are expected north of I 80 where more favorable moisture is progged, though a few snow showers are possible as far south as PIT as a limited amount of moisture increases in the dendritic growth region.
A short wave and its attendant cold front is passing through the forecast area at this time, and another will pass through the area Saturday. The surface flow will turn briefly back to the southwest tonight ahead of Saturday's secondary cold front.
By this afternoon, the EQL falls a few thousand feet and lift through the lowest levels wavers a bit. This occurs as the low level wind field becomes WSW.
Lower level ridging gets reinforced over Texas today into Saturday leading to some cold advection across South Central Texas by Saturday. Moisture overruns this surface ridging. With some dry air lingering in the lower levels, wet bulb cooling may result in a mix of rain/sleet at times, especially on Saturday and over the Edwards Plateau and Hill Country where lower dewpoints are expected.
542 AM CST Fri Nov 18 2022 The lower clouds are now along and south of a line from Fargo to near Bemidji.
The second is a weak cold front that should begin moving through the region on Friday night. In these areas, temperatures at the surface will be at, or just below freezing, which would support frozen precipitation at the surface. Move up the column to 850mbs, and temperatures around here are hovering just above freezing.
155 AM PST Fri Nov 18 2022 A cold front passage will drop temperatures to well below average today through Saturday, along with gusty east winds for the Sierra crest.
645 AM EST Fri Nov 18 2022 A cold front moves through this morning, bringing snow showers to the area. High pressure builds in over the weekend and temperatures plummet with overnight lows in the teens. The start of the work week looks dry and temperatures begin to rebound warmer. Amplified flow pattern with broad trof from the Rockies thru the Great Lakes. Associated surface cold front near the Indiana/Ohio state line to pivot east thru the area this morning. Mean trof pivots thru the Great Lakes Saturday with a northwesterly flow developing across the area. Clouds to accompany a secondary cold front which reinforces the cold air. Expect Saturday's highs to range from the lower 30s northwest to the upper 30s southeast.
The only problem is that temps will remain WELL below normal as highs in the low to mid 20s are expected today despite ample sun.
Clouds will be on the increase tonight as the next cold front moves in and through the area tonight into Saturday.
Ridge will edge eastward from the Pacific Northwest through the weekend with warming temperatures expected as the arctic airmass erodes. Thanksgiving holiday travel may be impacted by the next trof digging into the northern plains.
mid and high level cloudiness over the area early this morning will slowly decrease from north to south through the day as a trough axis within a larger upper level trough moves through. upper level ridging slowly makes its way toward the area allowing for warming temperatures.
A dry cold front will progress over the area today bringing colder temperatures and breezy winds but no snow.
511 AM CST Fri Nov 18 2022 A reinforcing cold front is working its way through the area this morning. Tonight, surface ridging is expected to begin building eastward out of the southern plains as ridging builds in aloft to our west, behind the persistent troughiness that has kept the area in the icebox the last several days. Ridging builds in again late Saturday afternoon as the Great Lakes storm system departs to the east.
532 AM CST Fri Nov 18 2022 This morning, a large longwave mid/upper trough continue to lumber over the eastern 2/3rds of the CONUS reinforcing below average temperatures across much of the country, including the central plains. Continued CAA throughout the day today will lead to afternoon temps struggling to rise up to the freezing mark.
A ridge of high pressure builds over the region this weekend causing the development of strong valley inversions once again.
(Today through Saturday Night ) A cold front from the north will continue traversing central and southern Arkansas this morning. A large area of high pressure will ride the flow into the state by Saturday. As the high gets closer, clouds will get forced to the south, and clearing will take place Saturday afternoon and night.
541 AM CST Fri Nov 18 2022 (Today and Tonight) A strong cold front is marching south across the region early this morning.
625 AM CST Fri Nov 18 2022 (Today through Saturday Night ) A cold front from the north will continue traversing central and southern Arkansas this morning. A large area of high pressure will ride the flow into the state by Saturday. As the high gets closer, clouds will get forced to the south, and clearing will take place Saturday afternoon and night.
843 AM EST Fri Nov 18 2022 High pressure will provide dry and cool conditions Saturday.
144 PM CST Fri Nov 18 2022 A longwave trough was impacting much of the CONUS bringing much below normal temperatures to the region today. As high pressure settles south late in the period, decent radiational cooling is anticipated, especially at the beginning of the period leading to another cold night with lows in the teens for most areas. Another more robust mid/upper trough is progged to dig into the Northern Rockies/Northern Plains on the heels of this first system as we move towards the middle of the week. The general theme continues to support a vigorous mid/upper trough impacting the eastern CONUS through the end of the week. We continue to maintain low pops with another intrusion of cooler Canadian air likely late in the week.
A cold front will bring another round of more intense lake effect snow activity to these same areas later Saturday afternoon into Saturday night.
A surface analysis this morning reveals a sprawling high pressure cell extending from the central High Plains southeastward across the entire Gulf of Mexico basin, Florida Peninsula and adjacent coastal waters. Forecasts have been updated to lower the high temperatures a couple of degrees.
00", with general moistening in the mid levels but a fairly large dry layer in the lower levels. Below average temperatures once again this afternoon, with highs in the mid to upper 60s north of Melbourne and the low to mid-70s to the south. Min RH values in the low to mid-40s are expected, with some portions of western Lake County reaching the upper 30s this morning, with Min RH values in the mid to upper 40s along and north of I-4 this afternoon and overnight.
1204 PM CST Fri Nov 18 2022 This morning, a large longwave mid/upper trough continue to lumber over the eastern 2/3rds of the CONUS reinforcing below average temperatures across much of the country, including the central plains. Continued CAA throughout the day today will lead to afternoon temps struggling to rise up to the freezing mark.
A deep layer dry airmass will remain entrenched across our forecast area today as zonal flow aloft generally prevails along the base of the eastern CONUS trough. It will be a cold rain as highs on Saturday afternoon only reach into the 50s with temperatures falling into the low to mid 40s during the evening before rain chances gradually decrease from northwest to southeast late Saturday evening into Saturday night. Overnight lows Saturday night should range from the lower to mid 30s over interior areas and in the upper 30s to lower 40s along the coast (except mid to upper 40s barrier islands).
233 PM EST Fri Nov 18 2022 Cold front brings a quick shot of snow today. Low pressure brings precipitation for Thanksgiving into Friday. A cold front with an upper short wave will pull out of the region later today, bringing an end to the snow. Much drier air will move into the area behind the cold front as cold high pressure system builds in. Dry weather is expected across the majority of the area as a moisture deprived cold front sweeps through Saturday night; however, flurries can't be ruled out over the northeast mountains.
A majority of the area will struggle to get to the freezing point this afternoon. The cooler airmass will begin to move east on Saturday and the cloud cover will mostly go away, allowing temperatures to warm up into the 40s. A surface cold front is currently south of the CWA and a cooler airmass is continuing to move southward across the region. Temperatures have dropped below freezing and likely will remain that way through the entire day today. In fact, these high temperatures are around 30 degrees below average for mid November and all climate sites may break the record lowest high temperature for November 18th! Forecast soundings depict a saturated layer in the low to mid levels, which could lead to snow generation today into early tomorrow morning.
(Tonight) A cold but largely quiet night can be expected tonight across eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas, as dry high pressure continues to sink southward across the region.
This event will feature substantial synoptic lift thanks to a deepening and sharpening trough upstream and an associated cold front over Wisconsin that is already producing snow.
238 PM CST Fri Nov 18 2022 Very cold afternoon for this early in the season with temperatures only in the low to mid 20s! West winds of 15-25 mph are producing wind chills in the single digits and teens -- brrr! Aside from the cold, we've had a continuation of flurries and isolated snow showers due to steep low-level lapse rates and some moisture being picked up off the Mississippi River, particularly south of the Quad Cities. Saturday A clipper tracking through southern Ontario will drag a cold front through the Upper Midwest which will reinforce the cold air and result in windy conditions.
Continued CAA behind the our dry cold- frontal passage will reinforce unseasonably cool conditions, with highs today expected to be in the low-to-mid 50s (as much as 10-15 degrees below average for mid-November). A swath of extra-dry air pivoting around the base of the mid-level trough has helped to stave off any true cloud cover over the past day or two. Lows tonight may be just a tick warmer due to enhanced cloud cover, but will still be sufficiently cold in the mid- 20s to lower-30s.
1206 PM EST Fri Nov 18 2022 Widespread snow showers, capable of producing reduced visibility and slick spots on roadways, will end this evening with a cold front passage. A crossing trough, recently situated across nrn Ohio per IR imagery, will continue its ewd trek across the forecast area, accompanied by steep low level lapse rates and moisture within the dendritic growth zone. While total snowfall amounts are expected to be generally around an inch; reduced visibility and a quick accumulation of snow on roadways could result in hazardous travel conditions, especially for the PM commute, as recent road temperature obs across the region suggest temperature at or below freezing. The highest chances for snow showers are expected north of I-80 where more favorable moisture is progged.
a degree or two warmer in urban settings. Tomorrow a cold front will approach from the northwest and by evening will stretch from Detroit to Evansville to Little Rock.
200 PM CST Fri Nov 18 2022 A cold front has swept thru the region and in the wake of its departure, it produced a few flurries in the eastern Pennyrile earlier today. Filtered sunshine Saturday offers a 20-25F recovery, and then another upper trof/dry fropa yields nearly an identical low temp forecast under similar high pressure conditions for Sat night.
(This evening through Saturday) Freezing temperatures and a light wintry mix will be the main headlines for tonight and Saturday morning. In fact, a light mix of snow and freezing drizzle is possible north of Interstate 10. However, bridges and overpasses may be prone to minor slick spots. With highs reaching back into the lower 40s on Saturday afternoon, many areas should see improvement during the afternoon hours if any slick spots do develop. Otherwise, the cold front will leave cool temperatures behind again for Saturday afternoon. Winds will remain northeasterly making it feel a few degrees cooler than it actually is. In fact, wind chills will be in the lower to middle 30s during the afternoon.
Morning satellite imagery showing the upper trough pushing south through central CA and NV.
1245 PM EST Fri Nov 18 2022 A cold front moves through this morning, bringing snow showers to the area. High pressure builds in over the weekend and temperatures plummet with overnight lows in the teens. The start of the work week looks dry and temperatures begin to rebound warmer. Temperatures only reach the low 30s again but wind chills will be in the teens to low 20s. Mean trof pivots thru the Great Lakes Saturday with a northwesterly flow developing across the area. Clouds to accompany a secondary cold front which reinforces the cold air. Expect Saturday's highs to range from the lower 30s northwest to the upper 30s southeast.
Water vapor imagery this afternoon shows mid-level zonal flow over the south-central Plains with a positively-tilted trough axis over the Dakotas. Highs this afternoon will struggle to get to freezing. Another reinforcing shot of cold air will follow a weak cold front Saturday AM and will keep temperatures in the afternoon in the mid 30s. High pressure will slide in behind the front and lead to sunny skies during Saturday afternoon.
329 PM EST Fri Nov 18 2022 Dry and breezy conditions are in store for Saturday before a weak cold front moves through Saturday night bringing the chance for snow showers in the north. Aloft, the large troughing pattern continues to stretch from the Northwest Territories in Canada down through the Ohio Valley, off toward the Labrador Sea. Temperatures remain chilly, with highs in the mid 30s and wind chills in the low 20s, given the gusty conditions ahead of the frontal passage.
An upper-level composite analysis this afternoon reveals a deep layer mean anticyclone centered just north of Hispaniola ridging west-southwestward across the northwestern Caribbean Sea. At the surface, a sprawling high pressure cell was centered over the southern Plains, with a ridge extending eastward to the Atlantic. The pressure gradient between the ridge and seasonably low pressures across the western Caribbean is generating fresh to occasionally strong northeasterly breezes across the Florida Keys and adjacent coastal waters. In addition, confluent air streams within the low-level ENE flow associated with the old frontal zone will gradually tighten up over the Straits of Florida and southeastern Gulf of Mexico providing a low-level lifting zone and focus for potential vertical coupling.
There is another cold front just to the north and west of the area that will move in later this morning into the afternoon.
Current temperature observations are showing values in the lower 50s to lower 60s. The temperature forecast remains on track for today, with daytime highs expected to peak in the lower 60s north to the lower 70s south.
249 PM CST Fri Nov 18 2022 Key Messages: -A cold front passes through the area tonight, bringing increasing clouds and a chance for flurries across north central Nebraska.
Outside of urban areas, near freezing temperatures are expected in the San Joaquin Valley each morning through the weekend. Some high clouds are quickly clearing out of the region as the trough moves south. Weak ridging will build back in over the area with near normal temps and light winds for the weekend.
1255 PM EST Fri Nov 18 2022 Widespread snow showers, capable of producing reduced visibility and slick spots on roadways, will end this evening with a cold front passage. A crossing trough, recently situated across nrn Ohio per IR imagery, will continue its ewd trek across the forecast area, accompanied by steep low level lapse rates and moisture within the dendritic growth zone. While total snowfall amounts are expected to be generally around an inch; reduced visibility and a quick accumulation of snow on roadways could result in hazardous travel conditions, especially for the PM commute, as recent road temperature obs across the region suggest temperature at or below freezing. The highest chances for snow showers are expected north of I-80 where more favorable moisture is progged.