Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1042 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015 HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TODAY. THIN MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS STREAMING EASTWARD AHEAD OF POSITIVE TILT 700-500MB TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL RESULT IN FILTERED SUNSHINE FOR NRN NY AND VT THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST OF VERMONT THIS AFTERNOON.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH SUFFICIENT HEATING AND WEAK CONVERGENCE IN THE INVERTED TROUGH AXIS. MY GUT TELLS ME THAT DEEP CONVECTION WILL BE HARD TO COME BY DUE TO THE LOW LEVEL CAP. OBS TONIGHT WEST OF THE LOW SUPPORT THIS NOTION AS WELL. FAIR OR AVERAGE AGAIN WITH LIMITED SENSIBLE WEATHER ISSUES DUE TO UPPER RIDGING. THE PRIMARY IS HIGH TEMPERATURES MOST DAYS BASED ON LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELDS AND PERSISTENCE SUGGEST HIGHS MOST DAYS TO BE AT THE LOWER END OF GUIDANCE AND DEFINITELY BELOW SURFACE 2 METER TEMPERATURES AS 850 TEMPS SHOULD BE IN THE 17C TO 19C AREA.
This morning a slow moving cold front extends from Des Moines to Lawrence. Temperatures out ahead of the cold front will rise into the low 80s which may provide for enough instability for scattered thunderstorm development in the afternoon despite very weak forcing. On Sunday, an upper level ridge currently residing over the eastern Rockies and western High Plains will begin to shift east into the area.
737 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015 HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TODAY. BIG BUBBLE NO TROUBLE! HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE CONTINUES TO PLAY A BIG FACTOR IN OUR WEATHER WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND VARIABLE CLOUDINESS.
719 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015 HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TODAY. BIG BUBBLE NO TROUBLE! HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE CONTINUES TO PLAY A BIG FACTOR IN OUR WEATHER WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND VARIABLE CLOUDINESS.
/ISSUED 332 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015/ UPPER LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST BRINGING DEEP MOISTURE N ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AS A SHORT WAVE IN THE UPPER FLOW ENHANCES SHWR CHANCES. THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE TO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS FOR SUNDAY. JUST A LITTLE MORE INSTABILITY FORECAST AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES TO THE NNE.
1042 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL KEEP IT DRY AND SEASONABLE TODAY INTO TONIGHT. AFTER A FEW SHOWERS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, HIGH PRESSURE WILL TAKE CONTROL FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK WITH DRY AND EVEN WARMER CONDITIONS. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CWA WILL MOVE TO THE EAST COAST TODAY. DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH THE HIGH. ALSO BOUNDARY LEVEL WINDS WILL KEEP THE LOW LEVELS MIXED. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND COLD FRONT IN THE MIDWEST WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EAST INTO THE AREA SUNDAY. SOME FORCING AND LIFT WITH THE UL SHORT WAVE AND SFC TROF BUT LITTLE INSTABILITY.
RAIN CHANCES RETURN LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH PASSAGE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER EASTERN PA IS EXPECTED TO BRING DRY AND WARM WEATHER TODAY.
SHOULD SEE GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IN VISIBILITIES ON THE PLAINS LATER THIS MORNING ONCE THE CONVECTIVE TEMP IN THE LOWER 80S IS REACHED AND AS THE NORTHWEST FRINGE OF THIS SMOKE PLUME BEGINS MOVING OVER THE AREA. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL BE SHIFTING EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS PUSHING INTO THE LOWER 90S OVER MOST OF THE PLAINS. THE PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PATTERN OVER THE SOUTHERN CONUS CONTINUES FOR THE EXTENDED.
1017 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015 ERIKA IS NO LONGER A TROPICAL CYCLONE. IN ADDITION, THE HIGHEST TIDE OF THE MONTH IS THIS WEEKEND AND BASED UPON LATEST FORECASTS AND IN ADDITION TO POSSIBLE HEAVY RAINFALL TONIGHT, THERE IS A CHANCE FOR TIDAL FLOODING ALONG MIAMI BEACH TONIGHT AND THROUGH TOMORROW.
Early this morning an upper level trough extended from the northern Great Lakes. The surface cold front was moving southeast of the CWA. A broad upper level ridge was located across the west central US. The upper trough will shear apart with the more amplified northern branch moving east across the Great Lakes States. The southern section of the H5 trough will dig south across northeast OK through the day. The low clouds should increase towards sunrise across the eastern half of the CWA. Highs will be in the lower 80s across most of the CWA. The H5 trough digging south-southwest across east central OK will cause a sfc and 850mb low to develop across central and eastern OK.
SOUTHERLY FLOW TODAY AND GOOD INSOLATION OVER THE WEST WILL SEE TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE 90S MOST AREAS AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE UNITED STATES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM: (THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON) WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. BECAUSE OF LIMITED MOISTURE, COVERAGE OF ACTIVITY TO REMAIN ISOLATED/SCATTERED THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AS COLD FRONT WEAKENS WITH TIME AS IT MOVES INTO THE FORECAST AREA.
UPPER RIDGE WILL DOMINATE CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND.
1238 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015 WEAK LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST WILL DRIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST TODAY AND TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION THROUGH MID WEEK. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK. NO REAL CHANGES TONIGHT WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINING STALLED OFFSHORE WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE FINALLY MOVING FURTHER OFFSHORE.
627 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015 FOR 12Z TAFS /ISSUED 210 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/ TEMPS AT 2 AM ARE IN THE LOWER 70S WITH MID 60S DEWPOINTS ALONG WITH A SE BREEZE ARND 5 MPH. OTHERWISE A 5H TROF WAS OVER THE MIDWEST WHILE A WEAK UPPER LOW CIRCULATION WAS OFF THE GULF COAST OF MS/LA. WITH THE WEAK UPPER LOW AND DAYTIME HEATING CAN EXPECT SCT SHRA/TSRA TO POP MAINLY THIS AFTN/EARLY EVENING. THE WEAK UPPER LOW AND THE MIDWEST UPPER TROF WILL COMBINE TO CONTINUE THE CHC OF SHRA/TSRA ON SUNDAY.
SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY EVENING BRINGING GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. FORECAST IS STILL ON TRACK FOR LOW HUMIDITY CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WINDS TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF A PACIFIC COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BY SATURDAY EVENING.
THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED LOOKS WARM AND DRY AS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING DOMINATES THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE END OF THE COMING WEEK. A SLIGHT WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE APPEARS TO DEVELOP ACROSS ILLINOIS INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.
HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR OVERHEAD TO PROVIDE EXCELLENT FLYING CONDITIONS WITH VFR PREVAILING THROUGH TONIGHT. DRY LAYER BETWEEN 5000-18000 FEET TO REMAIN IN TACK AS SOUTH TEXAS REMAINS BETWEEN STRONG RIDGE TO THE WEST AND A WEAK TROUGH TO OUR EAST. TEMPERATURES ABOUT A DEGREE WARMER TODAY AND ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO SUNDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT ALSO A BIT WARMER WITH THE NICE 60S DISAPPEARING AS THE 850 FLOW RETURNS FROM THE SOUTH WHICH BUMPS UP OUR DEW POINTS.
1052 AM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015 CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER SK. WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING SOUTHWESTWARD INTO NORTHWEST MT AND NORTHERN ID. A SURFACE TROF EXTENDS SOUTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN MT INTO NORTHEAST WY. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS RIDGING OVER THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. AS MIXING AND SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF THE TROF THIS AFTERNOON. TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL CROSS THE NRN PLAINS TODAY. SWRLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CWA BRINGING WARMER AND DRIER AIR TODAY. UPPER TROUGH WILL CROSS THE PAC NW INTO THE NRN ROCKIES SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS MT SUN AND PUSH INTO THE NRN PLAINS SUN NIGHT.
WITH DRIER AIR EXPECTED MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 90S. THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA CURRENTLY ALOFT OVER THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES AMPLIFIES INTO A RIDGE THAT STRETCHES FROM THE NEW MEXICO TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE TROUGH OFF THE NORTHWESTERN UNITES STATES SWEEPS INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH ROTATING THROUGH THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH LIFTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON SUNDAY NIGHT.
1026 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION WILL BRING FAIR WEATHER THROUGH TODAY.
CWA REMAINS IN BETWEEN MID LEVEL RIDGING TO THE WEST AND A MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE EAST TODAY.
A PACIFIC NORTHWEST STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A COLD FRONT INTO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. THE BROAD TROUGH MOVING ONSHORE ALONG THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST THIS MORNING HAS SHIFTED THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FORECAST AREA TO THE EAST. HIGH CLOUDS ARE MAKING THEIR WAY INTO WESTERN UTAH AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH AND WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EASTWARD. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN UTAH TONIGHT AS THE TROUGH MOVES INTO WASHINGTON. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WILL ALLOW FOR A BIT OF CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS WELL AS OVER NORTHWEST UTAH WITH GOOD JET SUPPORT ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE STORM SYSTEM. THE BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE TROUGH TODAY WILL ALLOW FOR ADDITIONAL WARMING. THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE EAST ON SUNDAY.
932 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015 STRONG U/L CUT-OFF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO WHICH IS WELL DEPICTED IN W/V IMAGERY WILL DRIFT VERY SLOWLY NORTHEAST TODAY.
HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY BEFORE SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR ARRIVES FOR THE DAY SUNDAY. AN UPPER LOW AND TROUGH WILL MOVE ONTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST THIS AFTERNOON RESULTING IN A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR FAR WESTERN ZONES BY EARLY EVENING AND ACROSS THE REMAINING PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT.
A WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL RESULT IN SOME SCATTERED SHWRS/ISOLATED TSTMS MAINLY NORTH OF A KTYR-KELD LINE THROUGH 30/00Z. /ISSUED 318 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/ OVERALL UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CHARACTERIZED BY THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE DESERT SW UP THROUGH THE WRN CENTRAL PLAINS. BASE OF THE RESIDENT UPPER TROF THAT HAS BEEN PRESENT OVER THE ERN U. GENERAL WEAKNESS ON THE ERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. AND THE RETROGRADING UPPER LOW /CURRENTLY OVER MS/AL/ WILL LEAD TO CHANCES FOR DAILY ISOLD SHWRS/TSTMS. THE UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE OVHD. COMBINED WITH LIFT FROM THE LOW ITSELF AND AN ENHANCED SEA BREEZE WILL BRING BETTER CHANCES FOR CONVECTION FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. WITH NO COLD FRONT/TROF OR OPPRESSIVE UPPER RIDGE TO TIP US EITHER SIDE OF LATE AUGUST/EARLY SEPTEMBER NORMALS.
AND SUNDAY AN UPPER TROUGH WILL EXIT THE REGION EARLY TODAY TAKING THE RAIN SHOWERS ALONG WITH IT. THEN UPPER RIDGING ARRIVES FROM THE PLAINS STATES TONIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS.
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S IN THE VALLEYS. TO THE UPPER 60S ON THE RIDGETOPS. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY REGION. WITHIN A POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH STRUNG OUT BACK TOWARDS THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW ALSO CONTINUES TO CHURN ACROSS GULF COAST STATES. MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TODAY AS THE TROUGH GRADUALLY MOVES FURTHER EAST. GENERALLY A FEW DEGREES WARMER COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DAMPEN AS IT HEADS ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS THROUGH SUNDAY. THICKER CLOUDS WILL KEEP THE HIGHS CONFINED TO THE LOWER 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE EXTENDED WILL FEATURE A WEAKENING AND SHIFTING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE.
LOOKING AT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THE CUTOFF UPPER LOW IS CURRENTLY SPINNING OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF WITH A RIDGE CENTERED JUST SOUTH OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES AT THE SFC ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA WITH RIDGING ALONG THE APPALACHIANS. THE HIGHEST POPS WILL REMAIN EAST OF INTERSTATE 65 WHERE PW VALUES WILL RISE TO NEAR 2. AS THE UPPER LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST OVER THE APPALACHIANS.
842 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME CENTERED OFFSHORE TODAY.
CONTINUED MOISTURE TRANSPORT THROUGH THE DAY AND SHEARED OUT UPPER LEVEL PV FILAMENT/500 MB TROUGH AXIS DRIFTING THROUGH THE AREA WILL SUPPORT CHANCE POPS FARTHER SOUTH TOWARD THE OHIO BORDER THROUGH TONIGHT AS MAIN MOISTURE AXIS (PW VALUES 1.
/ISSUED 406 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/ A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT OVER THE NORTHEAST CWA SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SWEEP SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE REST OF THE PANHANDLES THIS MORNING. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS STILL EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE PANHANDLES TODAY AND SUNDAY.
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED TO THE WEST ACROSS NORTHWEST MEXICO AND THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. AROUND THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. CLOUD COVER ALONG WITH LOWER HEIGHTS SHOULD KEEP HIGH TEMPS A FEW DEGREES COOLER SUNDAY THAN HIGHS YESTERDAY AND TODAY.
HOWEVER NOT BANKING ON MUCH SKY IMPROVEMENT AS LOW LEVELS REMAIN MOIST WITHIN WEAKLY INVERTED TROUGH AND JUST NO LOW LEVEL PUSH TO CLEAR THIS STUFF OUT. HOWEVER ALL MODELS SHOW 500 MB TROUGH WILL BE SLOW TO PUSH EAST OF STATE UNTIL WEAK SHORT WAVE. DROPS SOUTHEAST INTO BASE OF TROUGH WHICH DOES NOT CLEAR THE FAR SOUTHEAST UNTIL SOME TIME BETWEEN 00Z AND 03Z SUNDAY. SOME FRONTOGENETIC RESPONSE LINGERS WITH CONVERGENCE ALONG INVERTED TROUGH SO WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS IN THE EAST. FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH 500 MB TROUGH SHIFTS OUT OF AREA BY 03Z.
SURFACE MAP AT 07Z SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE RETREATING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST WITH A COLD FRONT STRETCHED ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND INTO THE GREAT PLAINS. IR SATELLITE SHOWING THE PROMISED UPPER LOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE GULF COAST, SO WITH MOISTURE STREAMING IN AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT TO THE WEST AND THE UPPER LOW TO OUR SOUTH, LOOK FOR INCREASING CLOUDINESS TODAY WITH MAINLY SCATTERED SHOWERS (AND A FEW STORMS) DEVELOPING BY AFTERNOON. MODEL SOUNDINGS DO SHOW CONSIDERABLE INSTABILITY SETTING UP IN TODAY'S ENVIRONMENT, BUT MOST OF THE MOISTURE WILL BE CONCENTRATED IN THE LOWER LEVELS, SO COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED.
PUSHING TOWARDS THE LOWER 90S IN CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
SATELLITE SHOWS MOISTURE AND CLOUDS STREAMING UP AHEAD OF A GULF UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. SURFACE MAP AT 07Z SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE RETREATING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST WITH A COLD FRONT STRETCHED ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND INTO THE GREAT PLAINS. IR SATELLITE SHOWING THE PROMISED UPPER LOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE GULF COAST, SO WITH MOISTURE STREAMING IN AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT TO THE WEST AND THE UPPER LOW TO OUR SOUTH, LOOK FOR INCREASING CLOUDINESS TODAY WITH MAINLY SCATTERED SHOWERS (AND A FEW STORMS) DEVELOPING BY AFTERNOON. MODEL SOUNDINGS DO SHOW CONSIDERABLE INSTABILITY SETTING UP IN TODAY'S ENVIRONMENT, BUT MOST OF THE MOISTURE WILL BE CONCENTRATED IN THE LOWER LEVELS, SO COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED.
1034 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015 HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY AND THEN SLIDES OFFSHORE FOR THE WEEK AHEAD. MID/UPPER VORT MAX OVER GULF STATES WILL RIDE ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF RIDGE OVER ATLANTIC AND IMPACT MID-ATLANTIC EARLY IN THE DAY. WILL LIKELY LIMIT ACTIVITY TO MAINLY SHOWERS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. WITH PERHAPS A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
TODAY-TONIGHT: NOT QUITE AS MUCH DISCREPANCY AS TO WHERE THE UPPER TROUGH/LOW WILL BE THIS PERIOD. WITH THAT SIGNAL AND PROXIMITY OF UPPER TROUGH/LOW. TEMPERATURES LIKELY GOING TO BE SEVERAL DEGREE COOLER IN SOUTHEAST KS DUE TO CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION. SUN-MON: STILL ANTICIPATE SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR SUN. THIS ADDITIONAL MOISTURE/CLOUDS/ PRECIPITATION COULD RESULT IN COOLER THAN FORECAST MAXES AGAIN ON SUN. WITH INCREASING SOUTH FLOW AND RIDGE BUILDING ALOFT. WITH APPARENT UPPER RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. BUT PATTERN VERIFICATION WOULD SUGGEST BOTH HIGHS AND LOWS WOULD BE EVEN WARMER BY A FEW MORE DEGREES. THE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD GRADUALLY SCATTER OUT FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER THE LOW CLOUDS COULD LINGER OVER FAR SOUTHEAST KANSAS INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ALSO COULD SHOULD SEE SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT MAINLY ALONG THE BACK EDGE OF THE LOW CLOUDS.
IF YOU THINK THIS MORNING FELT WARMER AND MORE HUMID THAN EARLIER THIS WEEK. OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGED FROM THE LOWER 60S TO LOWER 70S AND DEWPOINTS REMAINED STEADY IN THE 60S. THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE GULF IS PULLING MOISTURE UP INTO THE TN VALLEY FROM BOTH THE ATLANTIC AND THE GULF OF MEXICO. AND COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND UPPER LEVEL ENERGY PROVIDED BY THE LOW.
1123 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015 A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH OF OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON. IN ITS WAKE WILL BE A WARMER AND MORE MOIST AIRMASS.
EXPECTING MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS AND THE LATEST HRRR/RAP MODEL RUNS SEEM TO LIMIT CONVECTION TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT. CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 86 70 81 67 / 30 30 60 30 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 87 67 80 65 / 10 20 50 30 OAK RIDGE, TN 86 67 80 64 / 10 20 50 30 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 84 62 79 61 / 10 20 50 30.
1032 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015 WEAK LOW PRESSURE IS OVER SE IOWA. WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING E AND THEN ESE INTO CENTRAL OHIO. TEMPS SHOULD STILL MANAGE TO REACH INTO THE LOWER 70S TODAY DESPITE CLOUDS AND RAIN. PACIFIC NORTHWEST TROUGHING LEADS TO DOWNSTREAM RIDGING ACROSS THE REGION. THIS SETUP WILL RESULT IN WARMER TEMPERATURES AS WELL AS CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS.
BUT THE LOW CLOUDS SEEM TO BE TIED TO AREAS WITH A LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY FLOW. SO USED THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD TO TIME ITS DEPARTURE. SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILD INTO THE REGION TODAY. WITH HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUING TO DOMINATE ACROSS THE REGION. BECOMING WINDY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SD WHERE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP DUE TO STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE IN WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. SOME LINGERING MORNING CLOUDS AND WEAKER MIXING WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY COOLER IN THE LOWER 80S.
TEMPERATURES WERE A LITTLE WARMER THAN IN RECENT DAYS RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 60S TO LOWER 70S. ONE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST AND ANOTHER AN UPPER LEVEL LOW ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST THAT WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD APPROACHING NORTHEAST AR. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE LOCATED ALONG THE MS AND AL COAST. THIS LOW WILL HELP TO PUSH MORE MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR INTO THE MIDSOUTH FROM THE EAST. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO THE MIDSOUTH FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH THE UPPER LOW ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST MOVING NORTHEASTWARD INTO CENTRAL AL. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER CENTRAL AL WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH NORTHEASTWARD WITH A WEAK BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE MIDSOUTH.
CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OVER THE REGION. AND SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING WITHIN THE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH. THE COLD FRONT REMAINS WELL NORTHEAST OF AR.
MORNING WV IMAGERY SHOWS A CLOSED UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF. /EC/22/ A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW IS MOVING SLOWLY NORTH THROUGH THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION. /EC/ GLOBAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLES SHOWS A PATTERN CHANGE OVER THE CONUS FOR THE PERIOD WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER WESTERN CONUS AND STRONG UPPER RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. OVER THE REGION A WEAK CUT OFF UPPER LOW WILL MEANDER ACROSS THE REGION UNDER THE MEAN UPPER RIDGE.
RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST. PUSHING TOWARDS THE LOWER 90S IN CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
THIS ACTIVITY WAS NOT WITH THE COLD FRONT. CLOUDS AND LINGERING WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPS MILD OVERNIGHT BUT SUNDAY WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN TODAY IN ALL AREAS. A LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL STAY OVER THE NORTHWEST U.
WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGH IS OVER NORTHERN PLAINS WHILE HIGH PRESSURE IS OVER MID ATLANTIC.
922 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015 WEAK LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST WILL DRIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST TODAY AND TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION THROUGH MID WEEK. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK. NO REAL CHANGES TONIGHT WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINING STALLED OFFSHORE WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE FINALLY MOVING FURTHER OFFSHORE.
Meanwhile an upper level weakness remains cut off within the mean ridge.
08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A ELONGATED LOW PRESSURE CENTER ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL IA INTO NORTHWEST MO AND A NARROW RIDGE AXIS FROM NORTHEAST CO INTO CENTRAL MN. THESE CLOUDS WILL BEGIN A SLOW TREK EASTWARD AFTER SUNRISE AS LOW-MID LEVEL WINDS TURN TO THE NORTH BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROUGH. A COOLER AIR MASS WITH 925 HPA TEMPERATURES FROM 17 TO 19 CELSIUS WILL RESULT IN AFTERNOON HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID 70S. HIGH PLAINS THERMAL RIDGE AXIS BEGINS TO EXPAND EASTWARD. 925 HPA TEMPERATURES RISE TO BETWEEN 23 AND 26 CELSIUS AS A STRONG 500 HPA RIDGE DOMINATES THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS.
SOUTHERLY WINDS IN THE LOW LEVELS HAVE TRANSPORTED MOISTURE INTO THIS LAYER WITH DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE 60S. TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING ARE IN THE UPPER 60S TO THE LOW TO MID 70S.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS TODAY WITH HOTTER LOWER DESERTS REACHING OR EXCEEDING 110. THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE EAST OF THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER TO SUPPORT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SUNDAY.
CLOUDS LINES HAVE STARTED TO DEVELOP DOWNWIND OF THE LOWER KEYS. THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AND AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT DATA HAVE CONCLUDED THAT ERIKA HAS DEGENERATED INTO A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE NORTHERN COAST OF EASTERN CUBA THIS MORNING.
138 PM EDT TUE SEP 22 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S TO THE LOW 80S. LYTIC FRONTAL SYSTEM INTO UPPER GREAT LAKES TO CONTINUE DEMISE AMID 30-50M/12 HR MID LEVEL HEIGHT RISES INTO GREAT LAKES AS RIDGE EXTRUDES FROM SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO SWRN GREAT LAKES. SEVERAL DAYS OF DRY CONDITIONS WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT STORY AS HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS ON. BLEND OF GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO WANT TO LEAN COOLER (ALTHOUGH STILL ABOVE NORMAL) IN LATER PERIODS BUT HAVE CONTINUED TO KEEP THIS TEMPERED SOMEWHAT. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION.
303 PM PDT TUE SEP 22 2015 A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SINK SLOWLY EAST- SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING 3 TO 6 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT COOLER AT MOST LOCATIONS TODAY VERSUS 24 HOURS AGO. ALTOGETHER, THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS RESULTING IN LITTLE ELSE IN THE WAY OF CHANGE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER THAN LAST NIGHT, BY 2 TO 5 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT AT MOST LOCATIONS. WHILE IT MAY BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 30S FOR SOME AREAS IN THE ILLINOIS VALLEY AND SCOTT VALLEY, WE EXPECT FROST OR FREEZING CONDITIONS TO ONLY OCCUR IN AREAS THAT HAVE ALREADY SEEN SUCH CONDITIONS.
AND IN WASHINGTON COUNTY WHILE COOLER/DRIER AIR OVER THE FRONT RANGE IS MORE STABLE. I EXPANDED THE LOW POPS INTO AREAS NORTH OF DENVER FOR THE EVENING.
With this continuing, expect lows temps tonight to be similar to slightly warmer given higher theta-e airmass in place. With thicker cloud, some precip, and the cooler/drier air moving in from the southeast, kept Wednesday highs in the lower to middle 80s.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES HIGH STRETCHING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST WITH TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. COMPACT UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AREA. QUIET WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING AS PACIFIC TROUGH PUSHES EAST AND FLOW CONTINUES TO SHIFT SOUTHWESTERLY OVER OUR AREA. FOUR CORNERS UPPER LOW LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST AND TRANSITIONS TOWARDS THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE. A COOLER DAY IS EXPECTED WITH CLOUD COVER OVER MUCH OF THE REGION.