Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Dry weather continues through tonight with mid-upper level ridging. Precipitation will remain west of the state through 12Z Sunday with focused warm advection/moisture transport with the low-level jet ahead of lee cyclogenesis in the Dakotas.
319 AM CDT SAT JUL 9 2016 06Z surface data has high pressure over the upper Midwest with a frontal boundary from the Ohio Valley into northern Kansas. Quiet and dry conditions will be seen today and tonight as high pressure slowly moves through the Midwest.
327 AM EDT SAT JUL 9 2016 High pressure off the Southeast coast will keep hot conditions across the area. A cold front crosses the area tonight.
1107 PM MDT FRI JUL 8 2016 Water vapor shows upper ridge amplifying through the nrn Rockies. Upper wave will moving through the ridge may spark a few tsra across our warn zones this evening. Upper ridge axis builds into the nrn plains allow temps to soar well into the 90s most locations. Hot and dry conditions across the area for much of Sunday as a cold front approaches late in the day. Hot and dry conditions will develop over the weekend as a ridge develops aloft.
238 AM EDT SAT JUL 9 2016 A surface cold front crosses the area late Saturday into Sunday. Meanwhile, high pressure off the Southeast Coast will keep hot and humid conditions across the area.
They will taper off from NW to SE overnight and Saturday morning as a weak cold front moves through and drier air begins to arrive. Drier air will advect in behind the departing lift associated with the upper low pulling east of the Great Lakes tonight.
Otherwise, weak ridging will prevail aloft into the weekend. The ridging should also help make temperatures a few degrees hotter into the weekend. It will be very hot during the afternoon, with the west flow ahead of an approaching cold front and the upper ridging.
635 AM EDT SAT JUL 9 2016 Weak upper level ridging will give way to an approaching upper trough by Sunday while a weak surface boundary moves into the northern Midlands Sunday and washes out. The persistent heat wave will continue with little change in the overall synoptic pattern with upper level flow remaining from the west-northwest while a deep closed low tracks across the Great Lakes region and upper trough moves into the Ohio/Mississippi Valleys.
338 AM CDT SAT JUL 9 2016 Mid/upper trof axis currently pushing across NW/N Tx should eventually carve out a weakness in the ridge across SE Tx that has dominated area wx for the past several days. High pressure over the NE Gulf and lower pressures to the WNW will help to main- tain the gradient over the region.
Farther inland, some areas could climb into the low 80s this afternoon. There is currently fog ongoing over northern MN under this high, and it appears that fog development may also be favored late tonight over my western and southern areas, and I have therefore added a mention for such in the forecast. KJB 322 PM CDT Cooler air is expected Saturday as a cold front continues south through the region.
651 AM EDT SAT JUL 9 2016 Cooler and drier air will build into the region today with partly to mostly cloudy skies.
405 AM EDT Sat Jul 9 2016 A cold front will cross the region today.
The proximity of the trough will help initiate convection over Southeast Georgia. An increase in cloud cover will result in temperatures a few degrees cooler than Today.
333 AM CDT SAT JUL 9 2016 A broad upper level ridge will move east across the central and southern plains Today and Tonight. Surface dewpoints will remain in the lower to mid 70s through the afternoon hours which will cause heat indices to rise into the mid 90s to around 100 degrees.
Scattered open-celled cumulus will likely give way to a clear sky this evening before some clouds ooze their way southward behind more of the true cold front. MTF 322 PM CDT Cooler air is expected Saturday as a cold front continues south through the region.
356 AM MDT SAT JUL 9 2016 Drier air will continue to overspread the area today, as mid and low level flow gradually take on more of a W-SW component in response to digging trough along the Pacific Coast. Sunday still looks like the hottest day of the period, with temps over the Plains soaring into the lower 100s by mid- afternoon. But given the modest moisture advection from the south, and weak disturbance ejecting ahead of the trough over the PacNW, a few storms seem possible so will maintain ISOLD POPs for most of the CWA.
Lows tonight are expected back down into the 60s(F) across west central Kansas to the lower 70s(F) in south central Kansas. There's a chance for thunderstorms each day of the weekend as medium range models indicate weak upper level ridging developing across the Desert Southwest setting up a northwesterly flow aloft across the Western High Plains. Meanwhile, a southeasterly upslope flow will re-establish itself across the high plains as a lee side trough slowly strengthens across eastern Colorado.
236 AM MDT SAT JUL 9 2016 Current surface map shows trof across eastern Montana into eastern Wyoming. Upper level ridge builds across the area today. Cold front will slip into northeast Wyoming late Sunday and slowly move across the are Sunday night. Isolated thunderstorms possible Sunday afternoon into Sunday night, mainly along trof/dry line over eastern portion of forecast area.
511 AM EDT SAT JUL 9 2016 Cooler and still slightly unsettled conditions will prevail this weekend with isolated showers and thunderstorms each day.
335 AM EDT SAT JUL 9 2016 Cooler and drier air will build into the region today with partly to mostly cloudy skies.
Main focus this evening will be on any additional thunderstorm chances ahead of the approaching cold front, and MCS over Missouri bootheel. The atmosphere remains unstable ahead of the approaching cold front; so can't rule out 20-30 percent chance of additional thunderstorms this evening if front is able to be enough of a trigger. Cold front advancing from the northwest may still spark scattered thunderstorms behind the current activity moving into eastern Kentucky. Saturday and Saturday night look nice as high pressure noses in from the north behind tonight's cold front.
1037 PM PDT FRI JUL 8 2016 A deep low pressure system will move through the region this weekend delivering cool temperatures and rain showers.
Will leave in slight chances of showers/storms out west tonight as a weak upper level trough moves into the region. The 500MB ridge centered over far eastern MT/WY this afternoon will move directly overhead by 12-15Z Saturday. Highs on Saturday will be 5-8F warmer than today, topping out in the the 80s east of the MO River Valley, and in the low to mid 90s elsewhere. An area of low pressure will move through the Northern Plains over the weekend. A strong ridge aloft will also be in place. Shear and general instability will be sufficient on Saturday night to generate showers and thunderstorms ahead of the low.
212 AM EDT SAT JUL 9 2016 A cold front will move southeast across the region tonight. High pressure will gradually build into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley Saturday night into Sunday. Drier air and slightly cooler temperatures can be expected. A cold front will make its way slowly southeast across the region overnight.
A strong upper low pressure system moves across the Pacific Northwest this weekend, resulting in strong gusty winds today and again on Sunday.
258 AM MDT SAT JUL 9 2016 H5 ridge is the dominant mid-upper level feature across the Rockies and Plains regions, with a trough over the Great Lakes and a stronger upper low over the Pacific Northwest. Today-Sunday: H5 ridge continues to amplify with rising heights and increasing temps aloft. The trough in the Pacific Northwest shifts east and deepens over the next few days with SW flow slowly amplifying over the rockies and lee trough deepening down stream in response to increasing mid to upper level jet stream/cross mountain flow. At the same time instability and weakening CAP near trough axis along CO border could still support thunderstorm development, which could then be carried northeast with mean wind.
Hot and muggy weather with scattered afternoon showers and storms along the sea breeze is expected on Saturday with high temperatures again climbing into the lower 90s along the coast, and mid to upper 90s inland with heat indices in the 100 to 105 degree range expected.
With a highly moist boundary layer and moist soils, continued to undercut statistical guidance with highs mainly in the lower 90s. There's a chance for thunderstorms each day of the weekend as medium range models indicate weak upper level ridging developing across the Desert Southwest setting up a northwesterly flow aloft across the Western High Plains. Meanwhile, a southeasterly upslope flow will re-establish itself across the high plains as a lee side trough slowly strengthens across eastern Colorado.
256 AM MDT SAT JUL 9 2016 H5 ridge is the dominant mid-upper level feature across the Rockies and Plains regions, with a trough over the Great Lakes and a stronger upper low over the Pacific Northwest. Today-Sunday: H5 ridge continues to amplify with rising heights and aloft. The trough in the Pacific Northwest shifts east and deepens over the next few days with SW flow slowly amplifying over the rockies and lee trough deepening down stream in response to increasing mid to upper level jet stream/cross mountain flow. At the same time instability and weakening CAP near trough axis along CO border could still support thunderstorm development, which could then be carried northeast with mean wind.
the forecast is on track with strong high pressure ridging remaining in place. /issued 238 PM CDT FRI JUL 8 2016/ SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday night): Mid-latitude storm track remains well to the north, across the northern tier states, so broad 500-mb high pressure will continue to dominate the weather over Texas, the Gulf Coast states, and the entire Gulf of Mexico.
320 AM MDT SAT JUL 9 2016 Upper level ridge axis will move across Colorado today and be east of the state tonight. This will bring drier and warmer air to the state. It will be drier farther west with precipitable water values ranging from around a third of an inch over the higher terrain to two- thirds of an inch over the eastern plains. May see a few weak storms form over the higher terrain, including the Palmer Divide and Cheyenne Ridge. Highs today will be a few degrees warmer with 90s expected across northeast Colorado. A drier and warmer pattern returns to the region with increased fire weather concerns. For Sunday the upper level ridge will degrade as a closed low over the Pacific NW with a trailing trough pushes into NW CO turning flow more SW.
Frontal boundary across the lower Ohio Valley will move slowly south into the Tennessee Valley this afternoon and evening. Surface ridging begins to build into the region with patchy fog.
600 AM CDT SAT JUL 9 2016 An area of high pressure that was centered across the Upper Midwest will move off to the east later today. As the low level jet begins to intensify, and moisture advection increases, showers and thunderstorms will develop over the Dakotas and move eastward after midnight. Based on the nose of the low level jet and theta-e advection, the best chance of showers and thunderstorms will occur in west central Minnesota after sunset, with central Minnesota receiving the bulk of the activity after midnight.
A weak upper level ridge persists across most of the Florida peninsula. The mid to upper level trough east of the central Bahamas is forecast to lift to the northeast tonight into Saturday while another weak upper level trough is forecast to build into the central and eastern Gulf then persist through the weekend. Forecast soundings for Saturday and Sunday indicate a modest increase in moisture but mainly confined to the lower levels with drier air at the mid-levels forecast. This is consistent with the persistence of the sub-tropical ridge through this period keeping any tropical waves confined well south of the region.
151 AM EDT SAT JUL 9 2016 Low pressure over the northern Great Lakes will continue east tonight. A cold front trailing the low will move across the local area tonight. A secondary cold front will follow on Saturday.
The upper level pattern will become more amplified over the CONUS with a building ridge over the Plains and troughing over the east.
Fairly high rain chances will stay in the forecast through the rest of the weekend as well, with an upper level low forecast to meander around the southeast states.
Winds and RH appear to be a slam dunk for Sunday ahead of the approaching Pacific trough and its associated cold front. A very unstable atmosphere in place but capped somewhat by warmer air aloft and there is a large amount of dry air in place. Highs on Saturday should be a tad warmer as mixing increases and the thermal ridge ahead of the next system will be laying overhead.
438 AM EDT SAT JUL 9 2016 Weak upper level ridging will give way to an approaching upper trough by Sunday while a weak surface boundary moves into the northern Midlands Sunday and washes out. The persistent heat wave will continue with little change in the overall synoptic pattern with upper level flow remaining from the west-northwest while a deep closed low tracks across the Great Lakes region and upper trough moves into the Ohio/Mississippi Valleys.
332 AM MDT SAT JUL 9 2016 High pressure will remain overhead today though the ridge axis will shift eastward through the day. Low dewpoints and precipitable water will keep dry conditions in place while a closed low approaches from the west. This closed low will cause the surface gradient to tighten today creating critical fire weather conditions. However, the bigger concern will be Sunday as the low continues its eastward trek and really tightens that pressure gradient. Temperatures will run a few degrees warmer than normal.
410 AM CDT SAT JUL 9 2016 An area of high pressure that was centered across the Upper Midwest will move off to the east later today. As the low level jet begins to intensify, and moisture advection increases, showers and thunderstorms will develop over the Dakotas and move eastward after midnight. Based on the nose of the low level jet and theta-e advection, the best chance of showers and thunderstorms will occur in west central Minnesota after sunset, with central Minnesota receiving the bulk of the activity after midnight.
An upper level low pressure system will continue to bring below normal temperatures this weekend with breezy conditions and slight chances for rain showers in the northern Sacramento Valley. JHM Model forecasts are in good agreement with bringing the neutral to slightly positively-tilted trough onshore this weekend, which will continue to bring below normal temperatures to NorCal and slight chances for showers in the northern portions of the Sacramento Valley. The base of the trough will move through Sunday, which will gradually end rain shower chances.
308 AM CDT SAT JUL 9 2016 Weak cold front sinking very slowly south across forecast area early this morning.
The pesky L/M level ridge which has been in place the entire week shows weakening, albeit temporary due to a passing disturbance across the SE states.
131 AM EDT SAT JUL 9 2016 Cooler and drier air will build into the region on Saturday with partly to mostly cloudy skies.
347 AM CDT SAT JUL 9 2016 Small height rises over central NE today as a 500 hPa ridge builds overhead with a weak mid-level westerly flow aloft. Slightly warmer air mass compared to yesterday. Overnight, the 500 hPa ridge shifts east and flattens over central NE as a longwave trough over the western CONUS deepens.
The breezy westerly winds resulted in slightly cooler conditions with afternoon high temperatures only reaching into the upper 50s to low 60s. Southwest winds return for Wednesday with decent warm air advection for a warmer day.
WV imagery showing upper low. lifting past the western Great Lakes region into Canada with a trailing cold front pushing into the OH/TN valley.
but a persistent block over the western Pacific will anchor a long wave trough over the eastern Pacific. That leaves the Pacific Northwest vulnerable to short waves ejected from the trough.
1022 PM EST Tue Mar 7 2017 A weak cold front will move through the area early Wednesday bringing scattered to numerous showers overnight.
The cold front that pushed through central Indiana last night has pushed farther into the Ohio Valley. So, rain showers have ended across the forecast area, and drier air continues to filter into northwest Indiana with strengthening high pressure.
704 PM EST Tue Mar 7 2017 A weak cold front will move through the area early Wednesday bringing scattered to numerous showers overnight.
The upper level low will continue to move off to the north and east Wednesday night, but the upper level flow will continue out of the northwest for the end of the week and into the weekend.
405 PM CST Tue Mar 7 2017 Cold front has pushed through all of our CWA as of mid afternoon with the back edge of precipitation also exiting our southernmost zones. Strong radiational cooling will allow for temperatures to fall off quickly with lows ranging from near freezing far north to the lower and mid 40s down along I-20 and south. The one and only Chamber of Commerce day this week will come on Wednesday with highs nearly uniform areawide in the lower 70s with mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies prevailing.
and the expiration of the high wind warning late this afternoon outside of the wind-prone areas will hopefully occur.
The cold front that gave the area showers and thunderstorms today looks to have made it just west of Huntsville as of 23z with wind shifting to the NW behind it. Despite the cold front passage, the cooling trend tonight will be a short-lived affair.
Considered an upgrade to a High Wind Warning, but suspect the low-levels will stabilize just enough with the onset of night to prevent the really high-end gusts from reaching the ground. Tonight and Wednesday A tight surface pressure gradient associated with strong low pressure in western Ontario will remain across the forecast area through Wednesday. Have a mention of snow showers across northern Wisconsin later tonight and Wednesday morning in cold cyclonic flow as the low moves east. Winds tonight should help to keep temperatures from tanking, but cold advection will result in much cooler highs on Wednesday.
A cold front is expected to slowly move across S TX and into the gulf waters through the evening before stalling. The precip is expected to shift south through the evening but remains in the western and southeastern CWA through Wed where moisture is progged to pool and isentropic upglide develops over the shallow cooler airmass. Cooler and drier conditions are expected to filter into the area, but there is some uncertainty as to how far south. This makes forecasting temps a bit tricky, but looks like the cooler conditions will be across the west and across the northern CWA. However, a cold front will push across the coastal waters tonight with a moderate to at times strong northeasterly flow developing in its wake.
Current surface analysis shows intense area of low pressure centered over northwest Ontario, with tight pressure gradient extending all the way back south and west to high pressure over the Central Rockies. Upper level analysis shows the low over Ontario, with strong jet extending from the Pacific NW to the western Great Lakes and to the east of the low pressure system.
Sfc cold front was analyzed over nern AL to srn MS to srn LA with a weakening squall line over central GA to srn AL. Winds will veer as cold front approaches the area through Wed morning.
630 PM EST Tue Mar 7 2017 A cold front that will approach from the west this evening and move swiftly across central NC overnight.
907 PM CST Tue Mar 7 2017 A cold front has crossed the coast and cooler/drier air is working into the region. /ISSUED 535 PM CST Tue Mar 7 2017/ The outflow boundary/cold front was moving through KGLS and KLBX at 2330Z.
Maintained Chance POPs across the west-southwest toward Webb county as moisture and convergence with the boundary and a surface inverted trough increase overnight.
High pressure will remain in control for the next couple of days and keep things relatively dry and mild. Tomorrow is looking to be a sunny, mild day with high pressure just south of the CWA.
Showers still occurring ahead of the cold front building onto the Cumberland Plateau this evening but should be ending at CHA and TYS within the next couple of hours.
More rain and snow is expected over the region through Wednesday as a warm front moves north.
lifting a warm front of sorts through the region. Warmer temps are then expected for Wednesday behind the mentioned warm front.
Cooler and dry conditions have been realized across the Region behind the front. Low temperatures tonight will be quite a bit cooler compared to last night but pretty close to seasonal norms.
535 PM CST Tue Mar 7 2017 The outflow boundary/cold front was moving through KGLS and KLBX at 2330Z. /ISSUED 312 PM CST Tue Mar 7 2017/ Cold front currently making its way across SE TX this afternoon, with some rather healthy rains along and just ahead of it. This quiet pattern should hold through tomorrow and not sure what is up with the high POPS some of the models are putting out for this time frame. The next cold front is still cur- rently on tap for a Sat night passage. Cold front should slide off the coast this evening and through the coastal waters tonight.
Still seeing wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph in the High Wind Warning area, although speeds have been stepping down incrementally for the past couple hours. Will let the High Wind Warning continue through the original expiration. This should produce less wind tomorrow at most locations along with warmer temperatures. A flattened upper level ridge will be over the state with flow out of the NW.
436 PM MST Tue Mar 7 2017 Updated aviation section High pressure building into the western states will send the storm track (jet stream) northward and out of our forecast area for the next several days.
930 PM EST Tue Mar 7 2017 A cold front that will approach from the west this evening and move swiftly across central NC overnight.
656 PM EST Tue Mar 7 2017 Showers are expected today with the approach and passage of a cold front.
to the lower 60s across the far SW around Winchester and Jacksonville. Analysis of upper air today shows upper trough in region with frontal zonal from yesterday convection well off to the east. Moisture channel satellite data does minor upper level wave moving through NE into the base of upper trof. this will bring some scattered clouds north of region overnight with westerly flow around the Great Lakes upper low continuing. A second cold front is expected to stall into the region by Thurs night, with another minor upper wave moving over the region and triggering some scattered light rain.
The high pressure extending into the southeast coast from the Atlantic will continue to weaken as it settles further to the southeast over the next day or two. Conditions will continue to moderate across all waters tomorrow and tomorrow night as the high pressure offshore from the Southeast coast weakens and settles further to the southeast.
600 PM EST Tue Mar 7 2017 A cold front that will approach from the west this evening and move swiftly across central NC overnight.
Can't discount the potential for an isolated lightning strike this afternoon, nor the risk for very small graupel or even a big burst of snow pellets given depth of develop above the freezing layer, sub-freezing wet-bulb, and potential for rime. Will not make any changes to ongoing headlines, with expectations that we should be able to drop the advisory at 00z for most of the area, but the highest winds continue over the Buffalo Ridge well into the evening. Wednesday: A weak trough will move through the area during the day, bringing a reprieve from the strong winds of the past two days.
Trended twd the warmer guidance for Wed due to ample insolation and deeper mixing.