Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
A cold front continues to shift south of the area this afternoon. Low clouds, mist and fog have persisted atop the higher Plateaus thus far, especially in our southeastern counties. We will keep PoPs in the low to mid chance range for now, but may need to increase this if model consistency continues.
Upper low pressure was spinning over ID early this afternoon, with a diffluent flow aloft over the central Rockies. Temperatures were steady in the low to mid 30s along and west of I-25, with upper 30s and lower 40s to the east. Most high-resolution models are in agreement with the continuation of rain and snow through Tuesday morning as the upper low pressure system slowly tracks to the east across WY and CO. High temperatures Tuesday will continue well below seasonal normals, ranging from the 30s and 40s south of a Chadron to Douglas line, to the low and mid 50s to the north.
658 PM EDT Mon May 10 2021 High pressure will result in dry conditions and below average temperature for much of the week. The combination of near freezing temperature and light wind will create areas of frost along the I-80 corridor, thus a Frost Advisory has been issued. It was not expanded farther south because confidence in frost developing was too low due to the aforementioned cloudiness and likely warmer temperature.
Look for chilly lows dropping to the low to mid 40s. Look for chilly overnight lows with readings down into the low to mid 40s in most spots.
748 PM EDT Mon May 10 2021 Weak cold front crosses Tuesday morning. High pressure builds in and remains in place through the end of the week, amid weak upper level systems crossing. High pressure and much drier air will push into the area tomorrow afternoon giving way to quieter weather by tomorrow night. Have leaned slightly on the warmer side of guidance as the second wave of cloud cover moves in for the night. Tomorrow's temperatures are expected to be in the low to mid 60s for the lowlands and upper 40s to 50s for the higher elevations. High pressure will keep conditions dry during the period.
Expect most areas in the lower to mid 30s given the light winds and dry air, which in normal circumstances would yield a fairly widespread frost. However, with the low surface dew point values, seems unlikely to get a whole lot of frost, and with marginally cool temperatures, a freezing warning hardly a perfect fit. Therefore, to raise awareness of the chill, have still gone with a frost advisory from 4am-8am to capture times of temps 36 or cooler. Trough shearing by to the south should spread cirrus through areas at least south of I-90, and even should get some sparse cumulus outside that area with heating into the lower 60s.
Low temperatures should generally sit down in the low to mid 30s. The clear sky, light wind night under high pressure influence should prove optimal for drainage wind development. With high pressure in place overnight, expecting clear skies and light winds, with many areas falling to 32 degrees or below. Went towards the lower end percentiles in favored cold spots, such as Aberdeen. This high will still largely control our weather on Tuesday, with light southeast winds expected east of the Missouri River. Southerly breezes will persist into Tuesday night, so expect warmer overnight lows that remain above freezing.
539 PM MDT Mon May 10 2021 Upper low pressure was spinning over ID early this afternoon, with a diffluent flow aloft over the central Rockies. Temperatures were steady in the low to mid 30s along and west of I-25, with upper 30s and lower 40s to the east. Most high-resolution models are in agreement with the continuation of rain and snow through Tuesday morning as the upper low pressure system slowly tracks to the east across WY and CO. High temperatures Tuesday will continue well below seasonal normals, ranging from the 30s and 40s south of a Chadron to Douglas line, to the low and mid 50s to the north.
The southern end of an upper trough will keep locally breezy conditions going into the evening hours. Anticipate another day with highs on the lower deserts in the mid 90s on Tuesday.
Currently an upper level ridge is situated offshore, this ridge will gradually move inland through the week.
With the upper ridge building in from the west the thermal trough continues to deepen along the southern coast this afternoon.
With high pressure in place overnight, expecting clear skies and light winds, with many areas falling to 32 degrees or below. Went towards the lower end percentiles in favored cold spots, such as Aberdeen. This high will still largely control our weather on Tuesday, with light southeast winds expected east of the Missouri River. Southerly breezes will persist into Tuesday night, so expect warmer overnight lows that remain above freezing.
1053 PM EDT Mon May 10 2021 A cold front will approach from the west today and cross the area tonight. High pressure will build in mid week to late week as a series of weak low pressure systems move south of the area. The backdoor cold front has pushed into far southern portions of the FA late this evening. A very weak area of low pressure is forecast to develop along this boundary although guidance is not enthusiastic about much shower coverage across the region as high pressure will be building in from the north.
608 PM CDT Mon May 10 2021 There is a low pressure system over the Great Lakes and another one over the Great Basin. Clouds and cooler air remain in place with afternoon temperatures again around 60 degrees. Highlights: 1) Cool - below seasonal normal by 15 to 20 degrees 2) Precipitation chances thru Wed afternoon 3) Warmer at the end of week Change: Precipitation chances The wave over the Great Basin moves southeast to the Front Range for Tuesday then tracks east. As mentioned in the previous discussion, a ridge is impacting the influence of the upcoming impulses.
719 PM EDT Mon May 10 2021 A weak cold front will move through the area tonight. High pressure will then prevail through the rest of the week. This will force a weak cold front across the area. Remaining post frontal clouds will clear Tuesday morning as high pressure builds in.
Temps across the area are in the low to mid 50s with partly to mostly sunny skies early this evening for most of the area, except the Northern Finger Lakes, where some diurnal fair weather clouds and remnant lake breeze clouds are currently in place. Anabatic cold front will slip through the region Tuesday night with some showers in its wake.
948 PM CDT Mon May 10 2021 Zonal flow in the mid/upper troposphere will persist across the TN Valley overnight, with light northeasterly flow at the surface in the wake of a cold front which crossed the region earlier this morning. We will keep PoPs in the low to mid chance range for now, but may need to increase this if model consistency continues.
Current synoptic setup consists of a broad upper low situated over eastern Ontario/Great Lakes Region with a large area of ridging following it. as the ridge of high pressure strengthens over the northern Plains, so will the subsidence over central Indiana.
Some ridge and canyon winds will pick up overnight into early Tuesday with gusts to 25 to 35 mph.
Temps across the area are in the upper 30s to low 40s for the higher terrain, and in the mid 40s to near 50 for the lower elevations. Anabatic cold front will slip through the region Tuesday night with some showers in.
616 PM EDT Mon May 10 2021 Weak cold front crosses Tuesday morning. High pressure builds in and remains in place through the end of the week, amid weak upper level systems crossing. High pressure and much drier air will push into the area tomorrow afternoon giving way to quieter weather by tomorrow night. Have leaned slightly on the warmer side of guidance as the second wave of cloud cover moves in for the night. Tomorrow's temperatures are expected to be in the low to mid 60s for the lowlands and upper 40s to 50s for the higher elevations. High pressure will keep conditions dry during the period.
626 PM CDT Mon May 10 2021 H5 analysis from earlier this morning had a ridge of high pressure up the west coast of the CONUS into the Alaska Panhandle. East of this feature, low pressure was noted over Idaho into western Montana. However, further northeast into the northeastern forecast area and along the highway 20 corridor from Valentine to O'Neill, partly cloudy skies, and drier air in association with high pressure off to the northeast, will be favorable for lows in the lower 30s. The current guidance is near freezing for KLBF Tuesday night with 33 and 32 with the MAV and MET guidance respectively.
658 PM EDT Mon May 10 2021 Strong high pressure will build into the central United States and will largely control the weather for most of the week. A weak trough will pass through the region on Tuesday, and then a couple of stronger fronts may impact the area towards the weekend as upper level low pressure moves over the Northeast. Low pressure and its associated cold front continue to pull away to the east however there is still a fair bit of moisture lingering in the lower levels. Weak trough moves offshore Tuesday evening, and any light showers associated with it will taper off fairly quickly after sunset. Meanwhile, a closed 500 mb low over the Northeast moves offshore Tuesday night, and a positively tilted trough will lie across the Northeast and back into the eastern Great Lakes.
With the added cloud cover tomorrow, temperatures along the Rio Grande and the Brush Country are expected to be about 10 degrees cooler than today with highs in the lower 90s.
Sheltered pockets in the Hagerman/Gooding/Jerome area and points east could see frost early Tuesday morning, but freezing temperatures aren't expected.
947 PM EDT Mon May 10 2021 A weak cold front will move through the area tonight. High pressure will then prevail through the rest of the week. Synoptically, an upper low is positioned across the northern Great Lakes region. Remaining post frontal clouds will clear Tuesday morning as high pressure builds in.
A cold front remains well to the south over Louisiana, and temperatures today have failed to make it into the 60's across much of Arkansas. A zonal flow pattern aloft will persist thru the period, although a few perturbations will ripple across the area from a trof over the western US.
Current dew point temperatures are in the low 30s across most of the region and after sunset, areas that lose the clouds tonight will radiate out fairly quickly. Should easily see widespread lows in the low to mid 30s by tomorrow morning. A persistent trough parked over the northeastern corner of the US will keep unsettled weather and cool temperatures over NY and PA through Tuesday. As a cold front exits the eastern seaboard tonight, skies will partially clear overnight. As winds slacken overnight, temperatures will fall into the lower and middle 30s, allowing frost to form across most of our forecast counties.
Cloudy skies and light winds will also continue with temps dropping into the lower 40s overnight. With temperatures in the lower 60s, MLCAPEs have increased to 100-200J/kg immediately along/ahead of the boundary. Thanks to at least partial cloud cover holding firm through the night, low temperatures will be several degrees warmer than last night with readings remaining in the lower to middle 40s. Partly to mostly sunny skies will prevail on Tuesday with afternoon highs topping out in the lower 60s. High pressure will dominate the weather across central Illinois for the middle and end of the week, providing cool temps and dry weather.
851 PM EDT Mon May 10 2021 Weak cold front crosses Tuesday morning. High pressure builds in and remains in place through the end of the week, amid weak upper level systems crossing. High pressure and much drier air will push into the area tomorrow afternoon giving way to quieter weather by tomorrow night. Have leaned slightly on the warmer side of guidance as the second wave of cloud cover moves in for the night. Tomorrow's temperatures are expected to be in the low to mid 60s for the lowlands and upper 40s to 50s for the higher elevations. Freeze Watch issued for late Tuesday night through High pressure will keep conditions dry during the period.
Diegan Chattanooga Airport, TN 53 72 51 65 48 / 10 20 50 30 30 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 49 70 49 63 46 / 10 10 30 20 20 Oak Ridge, TN 48 71 48 63 45 / 10 10 30 20 20 Tri Cities Airport, TN 47 69 45 61 41 / 10 10 20 10 10.
915 PM CDT Mon May 10 2021 (Issued 915 PM CDT Mon May 10 2021) High pressure will continue to slowly push southward towards the region tonight. These could slow the decline in temps overnight but with the cooler airmass and temps in the lower 40s to upper 30s they won't have much of an impact on expected frost conditions tonight. Main focus will be on frost potential with chilly airmass in place ahead of building high pressure. After a chilly start Tuesday, some diurnal CU still likely given lingering mid level cyclonic flow and lower level thermal trough. High pressure then dominates into Tuesday night with more frost potential.
508 PM MDT Mon May 10 2021 The closed low responsible for our unsettled weather this afternoon remains over central Idaho at this hour. Flow around this low, along with an upper level jet streak, and cooler temperatures aloft have all combined to create a showery, and now stormy afternoon. Still looking for some light snow overnight in the 1 to 3 inch range for the higher terrain along the Divide and onto the Grand Mesa.
An offshore long wave ridge is approaching the coast and northwest flow aloft is in place over the Pacific Northwest. At low levels, a strong thermal trough has formed just off the coast, and low level easterly flow is bringing the dry conditions to the area.
Temps across the area are in the low 40s for the higher terrain, and in the mid 40s to near 50 for the lower elevations. Anabatic cold front will slip through the region Tuesday night with some showers in its wake.
1011 PM EDT Mon May 10 2021 Weak cold front crosses Tuesday morning. High pressure builds in and remains in place through the end of the week, amid weak upper level systems crossing. High pressure and much drier air will push into the area tomorrow afternoon giving way to quieter weather by tomorrow night. Have leaned slightly on the warmer side of guidance as the second wave of cloud cover moves in for the night. Tomorrow's temperatures are expected to be in the low to mid 60s for the lowlands and upper 40s to 50s for the higher elevations. Freeze Watch issued for late Tuesday night through High pressure will keep conditions dry during the period.
High pressure will build over the region with warming temperatures and lessening wind.
Upper level high pressure will result in another multi- day stretch of dry weather and above average temperatures this upcoming week.
532 PM MDT Mon May 10 2021 Latest analysis shows an upper low over the Great Lakes region with an upper trough extending westward to another upper low over Idaho. At the surface, a broad area of high pressure is centered over Manitoba with low pressure over the four corners region, which is producing light easterly winds over much of the forecast area. Temperature profiles indicate that there might be some -SHRASN in the higher elevations of the Black Hills.
High pressure over the region will continue to be the main weather influence over the short term. Overall, temperatures will likely be slightly warmer than last night's (but still chilly for this time of year) as the center of the high pressure drifts to our southeast, resulting in surface winds swinging out of the south. Slightly warmer temperatures are expected for tomorrow with continued dry conditions.
238 AM EDT Tue May 11 2021 High pressure builds across the area today. A weak trough crosses the region tonight. High pressure builds north of the region Tuesday night and Wednesday as low pressure tracks across the southeast states.
230 AM CDT Tue May 11 2021 High pressure sets up shop for the next few days, promising some mostly sunny and quiet (dry) days.
An approaching trough will initiate numerous SHRA/TSRA, especially after daybreak Tuesday, and coverage/intensity should peak during the late afternoon.
At the surface, a weak cold front is oriented nearly parallel to the upper flow and is gradually moving southward towards central Georgia. High temperatures will range from the low 70s in far north Georgia to the mid 80s in east-central Georgia this afternoon. The cold front is expected to approach the southern tier of the forecast area during the afternoon, and it is here that the highest PoPs will be anticipated as a result. Zonal flow pattern over the southern states will transition to NW flow after Thurs night before upper ridge axis passes by after Sun night.
Zonal flow in the mid/upper troposphere will persist across the TN Valley overnight, with light northeasterly flow at the surface in the wake of a cold front which crossed the region earlier this morning. We will keep PoPs in the low to mid chance range for now, but may need to increase this if model consistency continues. The low level convergence axis responsible for most of our rainfall early this week pushes to our south Wednesday night.
Anabatic cold front will slip through the region Tuesday night with some showers.
Low temps range from the low to mid 60s inland to upper 60s to near 70 along the coast.
Afternoon temperatures in the lower to mid 50s will average around 20 degrees below normal. Kept all precipitation as rain, although some wet snow may mix in at times across the highest terrain of NW Hamilton county.
1120 PM CDT Mon May 10 2021 There is a low pressure system over the Great Lakes and another one over the Great Basin. Clouds and cooler air remain in place with afternoon temperatures again around 60 degrees. Highlights: 1) Cool - below seasonal normal by 15 to 20 degrees 2) Precipitation chances thru Wed afternoon 3) Warmer at the end of week Change: Precipitation chances The wave over the Great Basin moves southeast to the Front Range for Tuesday then tracks east. As mentioned in the previous discussion, a ridge is impacting the influence of the upcoming impulses.
345 AM CDT Tue May 11 2021 High pressure over the east will bring continued cooler than average temperatures, light winds, and dry conditions today. Winds will become breezy out of the south overnight with a tightening pressure gradient as the high exits to the southeast. The southerly flow on Wednesday will help draw up enough llm, though, to push min RH into the 35 to 45 percent range and will help keep fire danger from climbing above the high category.
351 AM EDT Tue May 11 2021 High pressure will then prevail through the rest of the week. A weak cold front boundary, as noted by a 5-10 mph northwesterly wind, is moving through the area early this morning. The local forecast area remains pinched between low pressure in the Northeast and high pressure in the upper Great Lakes. Afternoon highs struggle to reach the lower 60s. The airmass will moderate ever so slightly to favor afternoon high temperatures in the low 60s.
This begins to taper off as another trough pushes it out of the area on Wednesday.
313 AM CDT Tue May 11 2021 Cooler conditions remain in place across the region early this morning. Lows will fall into the upper 30s to the lower 40s early this morning. Highs this afternoon will once again only warm into the upper 50s to the lower 60s. Clouds will remain over the area tonight into wednesday morning and will limit full cooling, but below normal temperatures will still occur as lows in the lower to upper 40s occur. The cooler below normal conditions will occur again on Wednesday as highs warm into the lower to middle 60s.
336 AM CDT Tue May 11 2021 Summary: High pressure over the region will keep things warm and dry over the next several days. Today marks the start of our warming trend thanks to an upper level low moving east away from the Northland and ridging pushing in from the west. Cooler temperatures will still permeate from Lake Superior keeping the shorelines in the 50s.
836 PM PDT Mon May 10 2021 High pressure was building into the Pacific Northwest, so dry and warming weather is expected through much of the week. Few clouds and relatively light winds will make for decent radiational cooling, but with that the latest guidance was warmer. While the guidance may be missing the cooler temps in this situation, did tweak upwards a degree or two in many locations. High pressure aloft is building over the region and will bring dry conditions the remainder of the short term. On Wednesday, an inverted surface thermal trough will be east of the Cascades, and afternoon temperatures will climb into the 70s to mid 80s--about 10 degrees above seasonal average.
Aloft, a lingering trough axis will shift slowly off to the east of the area by late this afternoon or early this evening. The lingering overhead trough will lead to an increase in afternoon cloud cover today; however, it is unlikely to be as extensive as the past few days. As the high pressure system becomes centered overhead tonight, skies will clear and winds will become light and variable. The upper ridge approaching for Wednesday, will allow high temperatures to warm to near or slightly above normal. Overnight lows will range from the mid and upper 20s north to the low and mid 30s central and east-central.
High pressure was building into the Pacific Northwest, so dry and warming weather is expected through much of the week. Few clouds and relatively light winds will make for decent radiational cooling, but with that the latest guidance was warmer. While the guidance may be missing the cooler temps in this situation, did tweak upwards a degree or two in many locations. High pressure aloft is building over the region and will bring dry conditions the remainder of the short term. On Wednesday, an inverted surface thermal trough will be east of the Cascades, and afternoon temperatures will climb into the 70s to mid 80s--about 10 degrees above seasonal average.
Much-weakened convection is anticipated for Wednesday afternoon in the wake of the mid-level energy and as the aforementioned cold front completes its transition through the region.
Temperatures are hovering near 80 degrees, with humid dewpoints in the lower 70s, and winds on land are from the east to southeast near 10 mph. Surface analysis depicts high pressure over the western Atlantic and extending westward across the Florida peninsula into the eastern Gulf of Mexico, with a wavy frontal boundary lying from the Carolinas across the Southeastern states and the Lower Mississippi Valley into South Texas. Aloft, a flat ridge extends from the western Atlantic through South Florida, the Keys and Cuba to the Yucatan Peninsula. Little change is expected for tonight and Wednesday, as the subtropical ridge continues to suppress any rainfall in our area.
Warmer conditions and lighter winds arrive on Tuesday, lasting through the remainder of the work week. Breezy west to southwest winds today are in response to a trough driving south through Utah this afternoon. As the trough moves through the Four Corners region tonight, there will be a slight chance for a few showers in that region.
Temperatures will become warmer Wednesday but with plenty of afternoon cumulus. There could be a brief period of sunshine today as the upper-level trough axis pushes south of the Great Lakes and a ridge begins to build into Central Illinois, but we are anticipating sunshine to be filtered through much of the afternoon with the region placed in between a pair of upper-level disturbances.
As such, lows have trended downward slightly, with the entire area expected to be in the 30s, and the typical cold spots (Valley, Greeley, Dawson counties) may even approach freezing. Temperatures should be a few degrees warmer than today.
SBCAPES along the I-10 corridor were 1000 to 2500 J/KG but increased over 3500 J/KG to the south of the cold front. The rest of West Central Texas from the Big County into the Concho Valley was under low clouds behind the cold front. A warm front will also be move in during the morning hours.