Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
With drier moving into the area no precipitation is expected until the arrival of the next cold front, therefore, went with minimal to no PoPs for Thursday and Thursday night. Low temperatures tonight are expected to be in the 60s across the CWA with the exception being areas near the coast in the lower 70s. Tomorrow we will begin to warm up again as temperatures will be about 10 degrees warmer than today with the coastal locations in the low 80s and inland areas in the upper 80s to low 90s.
Arctic high pressure and an upper trough build in behind the rain Thursday night. The period starts out with high pressure over the western half of the CWA.
258 PM CDT Wed May 6 2020 Once the cold front moves off to the southeast, expect temperatures to gradually lower through the rest of this afternoon and this evening. Cooler air is filtering in from the north, which will bring temperatures down to around 40 degrees by Thursday morning.
1219 PM CDT Wed May 6 2020 A cold front will sag southward across the Northland today. Temperatures today will reach the low 50s along the North Shore to the middle 60s in the St. A wedge of high pressure will be over the Northland Thursday with mostly sunny skies but cooler temperatures. A closed upper low over northern Ontario will push southward into southern Ontario and Lower Michigan Thursday night.
315 PM CDT Wed May 6 2020 Models show high pressure expanding over the area tonight. Thursday should be a dry and warmer day as the high moves southeast.
Chamber of commerce May weather this afternoon and overnight with dry high pressure dominating the region. High pressure weakens and shifts east Thursday leading to the development of onshore that strengthens as pressures fall over NWTX. Temperatures will peak up near today's readings or perhaps a degree or two warmer.
A powerful cold front continues to move through western Montana this afternoon. The higher terrain of Glacier National Park and locations such as Marias Pass will likely see a few inches of snow by tomorrow morning. Otherwise a mix of sun and clouds with slightly cooler than normal temperatures are expected.
152 PM EDT Wed May 6 2020 High pressure in the central Plains pushing into the Midwest will keep a dry, cool, northerly flow over the Ohio Valley. A cold front will drop south Thursday night and lay out west to east from a low in southern Illinois, through southern Indiana and Ohio, to the southern border of Pennsylvania.
1117 AM MDT Wed May 6 2020 Mean troughing ongoing over central NOAM as the NE PAC upper trough remains fixed. NE Pac deep upper trough will then support downstream ridging over western NOAM the remainder of the period, while blocking flow develops over the NW Atlantic. This will sustain central NOAM troughing, with a cold core trough settling into the upper Midwest and Great Lakes. The western extent of troughing is progged to back into the region.
1203 PM PDT Wed May 6 2020 A strong cold front will arrive today with widespread rain across most of the region. JW 18Z TAFS: Following the morning cold front passage a band of rain will linger over NE Washington into N Idaho into the afternoon including KGEG/KSFF/KCOE with a continuation of breezy conditions.
915 PM CDT Wed May 6 2020 Clouds will spread in tonight along with rain showers moving into the western cwa by Thursday morning as lift from a short wave trough approaches. Arctic high pressure and an upper trough build in behind the rain Thursday night. The period starts out with high pressure over the western half of the CWA.
918 PM CDT Wed May 6 2020 With sfc ridging directly ovhd this evening, winds have become calm across most of the Four State Region already this evening. As this ridge moves slowly eastward, we may see a light east or southeast wind commence across our western third but given the lack of appreciable cloud cover, see no reason why we should not see good radiational cooling conditions overnight.
Winds decrease this evening after sunset behind a dry cold front.
1016 PM EDT Wed May 6 2020 A passing cold front on Thursday will usher in unseasonably cold air for Mothers Day weekend. Weak high pressure will support mainly clear. Increased clouds ahead of a cold front Thursday with rain showers arriving during the afternoon. A mid-level closed low will develop Thursday night over southern Manitoba.
Models show high pressure expanding over the area tonight. Thursday should be a dry and warmer day as the high moves southeast.
415 PM CDT Wed May 6 2020 Latest surface analysis showed another surge dry cold front from North Georgia to Central Mississippi to North Central Texas. A ridge of high pressure was noted over northern Plains with the ridge axis building southeast to the ArklaTex region. In addition, a positively titled trough axis was over Mid-Atlantic States to northern Alabama. Upper level trough will continue to drive southeast and push the cold front through the forecast area this evening.
Drier weather tonight into Thursday as an upper ridge builds into the Pacific Northwest.
Dry weather is expected to develop tonight and into Thursday as an upper ridge builds into the Pacific Northwest.
Clouds have been on the decrease this evening but expect the low level clouds will develop over the inland Coastal Bend and move into the Brush Country late tonight. Strong gusty south-southeast winds will occur Thursday afternoon as an area of low pressure deepens over west Texas.
556 PM CDT Wed May 6 2020 Northwesterly flow along with some low to mid level clouds have kept us on the cooler side today. Light rain could extend to almost all of our counties except for those on the east side of the Buffalo Ridge in SW MN.
1053 PM EDT Wed May 6 2020 A delightful Thursday is on the way, in the wake of a late season cold front that will pass south across the Keys during the pre- dawn hours on Thursday morning.
718 PM EDT Wed May 6 2020 A passing cold front on Thursday will usher in unseasonably cold air for Mothers Day weekend. Weak high pressure will promote clearing tonight. Increased clouds ahead of a cold front Thursday with rain showers arriving during the afternoon. A mid-level closed low will develop Thursday night over southern Manitoba.
GAH MORNING DISCUSSION: High pressure has brought clear skies and light winds to NE Montana overnight. The high will move to the east today and an upper ridge will move through the forecast area with warmer temperatures. East to SE winds and cloud cover will increase during the day as a low pressure system approaches from the west. Rain will diminish Thursday afternoon as the upper low moves to the east.
02Z surface map showed a 1022mb pressured ridge centered over southwest TN. This ridge center will drop into northern/central MS through sunrise.
A cool Spring day out there today with northwest winds continuing to bring in a cooler air mass. Temperatures as of early afternoon were from the mid 50s in central MO to the low 60s elsewhere.
530 PM MDT Wed May 6 2020 20z surface analysis had high pressure over eastern SD/NE with developing warm front over eastern MT/WY. Warm front will move across the region tonight with decent 850-700mb theta-e advection, enough perhaps for some elevated TS per MUCAPE/CAMS. Band of precipitation will settle into an arc from east central MT to central SD as the disturbance becomes an upper low. Upper low translates over the Black Hills into NE as it weakens later Thursday. Given orientation of upper low, dry slotting expected Thursday morning across much of northeast WY/southwest SD. Amounts quickly fall off to the southwest, which is probably good because wet bulb zero heights support snow over the higher elevations much of Thursday.
/22/ Prior discussion below: Late this afternoon through Thursday: Strong subsidence in the wake of an anomalously cold trough crossing the southeast CONUS is combining with May warmth to produce strong mixing over the ArkLaMiss region.
752 PM EDT Wed May 6 2020 A cooler air mass will spread into the area behind a departing cold front with much below normal temperatures expected through the weekend.
Guidance is mixed on whether moisture will return quick enough for the low clouds to develop and we have carried a scattered MVFR deck in the TAFs for now. /issued 232 PM CDT Wed May 6 2020/ Upper ridging will dominate overnight. The period will be characterized by ridging out west and troughing in the east with NWRLY flow across the central CONUS.
A center of high pressure will drop in from the north resulting in a light wind and cooler than normal temperatures. /22/ Prior discussion below: Late this afternoon through Thursday: Strong subsidence in the wake of an anomalously cold trough crossing the southeast CONUS is combining with May warmth to produce strong mixing over the ArkLaMiss region.
Analysis of the H100-H70 lyr shows the axis of the short wave trof approaching the east FL coast, while H85-H50 analysis shows a thin "moisture" boundary extending from Tampa Bay to Cape Canaveral. Bcmg noticeably cooler, especially over the interior with min temps in the M/U50s by daybreak. Cold front approaching the Cape Canaveral area as of sunset this evng fcst to push south of Lake-O/Jupiter Inlet aft midnight.
Once the cold front moves off to the southeast, expect temperatures to gradually lower through the rest of this afternoon and this evening. Cooler air is filtering in from the north, which will bring temperatures down to around 40 degrees by Thursday morning.
600 PM CDT Wed May 6 2020 VFR conditions expected for the next 24 hours with high pressure over the southern plains. Chamber of commerce May weather this afternoon and overnight with dry high pressure dominating the region. High pressure weakens and shifts east Thursday leading to the development of onshore that strengthens as pressures fall over NWTX. Temperatures will peak up near today's readings or perhaps a degree or two warmer.
A dry cold front will move through northern Utah late this afternoon will continue south through central and southern Utah tonight.
625 PM CDT Wed May 6 2020 VFR to continue with dry high pressure in place. /issued 410 PM CDT Wed May 6 2020/ Clear skies as temperatures climbed into the low 80s today.
410 PM CDT Wed May 6 2020 Clear skies as temperatures climbed into the low 80s today.
/22/ Late this afternoon through Thursday: Strong subsidence in the wake of an anomalously cold trough crossing the southeast CONUS is combining with May warmth to produce strong mixing over the ArkLaMiss region.
1043 PM MDT Wed May 6 2020 20z surface analysis had high pressure over eastern SD/NE with developing warm front over eastern MT/WY. Warm front will move across the region tonight with decent 850-700mb theta-e advection, enough perhaps for some elevated TS per MUCAPE/CAMS. Band of precipitation will settle into an arc from east central MT to central SD as the disturbance becomes an upper low. Upper low translates over the Black Hills into NE as it weakens later Thursday. Given orientation of upper low, dry slotting expected Thursday morning across much of northeast WY/southwest SD. Amounts quickly fall off to the southwest, which is probably good because wet bulb zero heights support snow over the higher elevations much of Thursday.
Fair weather high pressure will continue to hold across the region. /issued 625 PM CDT Wed May 6 2020/ VFR to continue with dry high pressure in place. /issued 410 PM CDT Wed May 6 2020/ Clear skies as temperatures climbed into the low 80s today.
Winds behind this system continue to gust in the high 30s to abt 40kts through the majority of the Columbia Basin and Kittitas Valleys. We will be maintaining Most of the precipitation has fully cleared the region with mostly clear skies being experienced by most outside of the higher elevations of the mountains. Much of the Basin is likely to remain above freezing tonight with areas in the foothills of the Blue and Ochoco Mtns and high foothills of the Cascades experiencing near freezing temperatures.
1036 PM CDT Wed May 6 2020 Northwesterly flow along with some low to mid level clouds have kept us on the cooler side today. Light rain could extend to almost all of our counties except for those on the east side of the Buffalo Ridge in SW MN.
307 AM CDT Thu May 7 2020 There is a high pressure moving east over the mid-Mississippi River Valley, keeping the sky clear and winds light. By the afternoon this high will be shunted off to the east of our region and a strong low will be moving into the area. Widespread rain will move into the CWA during the afternoon ahead of the low and attendant cold front, and will persist through the evening. The cold front will move through overnight bringing strong and gusty winds to the area even while rain lingers behind the front.
VFR will continue under high pressure throughout the next 24 hours.
135 AM EDT Thu May 7 2020 High pressure will be overhead today, then shift offshore tonight.
1239 AM CDT Thu May 7 2020 Clouds will spread in tonight along with rain showers moving into the western cwa by Thursday morning as lift from a short wave trough approaches. Arctic high pressure and an upper trough build in behind the rain Thursday night. The period starts out with high pressure over the western half of the CWA.
The Northern Rockies will be on the downstream side of a ridge building over the Pacific Northwest.
1018 PM PDT Wed May 6 2020 A strong cold front will arrive today with widespread rain across most of the region.
Dry conditions will continue for the first half of the day with surface ridging in place. The aforementioned front is progged to become quasi- stationary out in the vicinity of I-70 this evening as precipitation moves east of the ridges.
147 AM EDT Thu May 7 2020 A cooler air mass will spread into the area behind a departing cold front with much below normal temperatures expected through the weekend.
240 AM EDT Thu May 18 2017 Current surface analysis shows an area of low pressure centered over southeast Minnesota with a cold front through western Iowa and into portions of eastern Nebraska and Kansas. Ahead of this feature, breezy southwest winds have brought a surge of Gulf moisture northward evident by dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s across southern Illinois, southwest Kentucky and the lower MS River Valley. The current activity across MO/IL is associated with an axis of higher moisture /dewpoints 65+/ and forcing associated with the low-level jet. As the low-level jet weakens by mid-morning, the showers and storms will diminish in coverage and intensity. The cold front approaches the area from the northwest on Friday.
/issued 341 PM CDT Wed May 17 2017/ Upper level low is situated over the Great Basin this afternoon with a nearly zonal pattern flow regime across West Texas. The low is expected to slowly move southeast tomorrow settling over the San Juan Mountains of Colorado by evening time as flow backs southwesterly here in our part of the state. Into Friday, the low will then change course and likely end up toward western Nebraska all the while maintaining SW flow here with some minor embedded disturbances. As the low continues to lift into the weekend, our flow will become WNWRLY.
Pieces of embedded energy will continue to rotate around the low as it moves northeastward today. Flood potential has diminished as the highest rain fall rates, occurring now over a portion of northwest Wisconsin, will end by 12Z. Surface and upper level ridging covers the area tonight. With a clear sky and lighter wind, low temperatures will be in the lower to middle 30s. The aforementioned ridging prevails Friday morning. By afternoon, the upper ridging is pushed off to the northeast as the next closed upper low, currently over northern Utah, reaches western Nebraska late. Model differences begin to show with the handling of embedded impulses lifting northward from the low into the region. Max temps will reach the lower 60s over the Borderland, with 50s elsewhere. A longwave trough will extend from northern portions of Alberta/Saskatchewan into the southwest CONUS Friday evening.
Of great importance is where the warm front ends up. As it looks now, the warm front may reach the far south and southeast edge of my area. Am thinking that due to think cloud cover at multiple levels and ongoing precipitation, temperatures will not rise much and plan on going toward the cooler guidance.
Area of low pressure which brought our coldest May 17th on record across the area is centered near Salt Lake City early this morning. This has allowed for temperatures to drop to near or below freezing across these areas. Elsewhere, a broad swath of moisture originating from AZ wraps around the low, allowing for a continuation of snow showers along the Continental Divide region and south and west across the Pashimeroi, Lemhi and Sawtooth ranges.
413 AM CDT Thu May 18 2017 An upper ridge is currently draped SW to NE across the central Gulf of Mexico into the western Atlantic. At the same time a, a weak upper low is moving northeast across the upper Mississippi Valley. Surface dewpoints have risen considerably, into the low to mid 70s. The focus for convection will shift west as the upper trough to the north ejects and the next behind it moves across the Rockies. Models show storm coverage increasing substantially over the weekend as the upper trough coming out of the Rockies moves gradually across the central and high plains.
Surface wise, a strengthening western Atlantic ridge is anchored across the gulf coast region with a trough aligned from the southwestern Atlantic Ocean to across the central Bahamas, and into the northwestern Caribbean Sea.
207 AM EDT Thu May 18 2017 The chance of showers and thunderstorms will return to the area late tonight through Thursday as moisture increases ahead of a cold front.
355 AM EDT Thu May 18 2017 Bermuda high pressure will extend west into the southeastern U. A backdoor cold front will settle south through VA Fri night and into NC on Sat. Central NC will remain under the influence of Bermuda high pressure with the upper level ridge axis over the region shifting ever so slightly eastward today.
Moisture was wrapping around a low pressure system to our east and into our eastern county warning area and this will continue overnight. Mid-level ceilings at PDT and ALW will slowly shift off to the east through the afternoon as an upper level ridge builds in. Winds will remain AOB 15KTs for all locations with the exception of PDT and DLS which will continue gusting into the high teens/lower 20s for the next few hours.
Although, a more consolidated area of moderate to heavy rainfall moving out of FSD's CWA will likely affect the southeast counties later this evening as the low continues to move north-northeast. An upper low will move into the northern plains on Friday. Temps will top out in the lower 50s on both Fri and Sat.
The ridge of high pressure that has dominated area weather recently is shifting east of the region tonight and a weak frontal boundary will move in on Thursday.
305 AM CDT Thu May 18 2017 Current temperatures running about ten degrees warmer than normal.
Similar conditions expected today across the region, as deep layer high pressure remains centered to the east.
Satellite imagery this morning reveals the main weather system is a large closed upper low currently centered over southeast Idaho and moving into Utah, essentially keeping precipitation well to our south. Today the low center drifts into Colorado and pauses.
The overall weather pattern shows the upper ridge of high pressure that have been positioned over the Southern Appalachian Region has shifted east of the area.
A cold front will slide southeast across the state tonight and Friday, followed by a relatively cooler and drier airmass through much of the upcoming weekend.
626 AM EDT Thu May 18 2017 High pressure will maintain dry weather and above normal temperatures through Friday.
101 AM CDT Thu May 18 2017 Moisture channel imagery now shows upper low has rotated into north central IL with trailing tail of convection extending southward into west central IL. Mositure chnnal satellite loop shows the upper low rotating northeast across KS into the northwest tip of MO by this afternoon. Instability beneath upper low with surface convergence is strongest over northern MO rotating into IA. With the movement of the upper closed low to the northeast, dragging the surface front to approach IL overnight, will be continued chance of mainly elevated convection. As for Thursday, the upper low moves off to north and all but the south parts of warning area is dry.
A strong mid level ridge will reside over the top of the peninsula, with the Atlantic ridge centered well NE of Florida maintaining its strength as well.
A cold upper low centered across the region will slowly move east into Colorado by tonight.
330 AM MDT Thu May 18 2017 Current surface analysis shows main area of low pressure across southeast CO, with inverted trough stretching back northwestward to a secondary low pressure area over central WY. Fairly strong high pressure in place across south central Canada. Most of the forecast area is dry for the time being, with some showers over mainly Campbell County WY right now as some moisture wraps northwestward around the low over UT. Temps are mostly in the low to mid 40s, with some 30s across the Black Hills.
345 AM EDT Thu May 18 2017 Bermuda high pressure will extend west into the southeastern U. A backdoor cold front will settle south through VA Fri night and into NC on Sat. Min temps will generally be in the mid 60s with lower 60s in the normally cooler locations.
347 AM CDT Thu May 18 2017 Closed low that affected western Nebraska yesterday moving into the Great Lakes this morning. Large Upper low over the Great Basin this morning will bring our next round of precipitation today. Models seem to have a good handle on the upper low spinning over the Great Basin early this morning. Diffluence aloft over western Nebraska today with slow moving upper low moving east. Temperatures this evening and over night should remain high enough to keep and snow away from the Pine Ridge.
250 AM CDT Thu May 18 2017 It was a warm and humid early morning across the Missouri Ozarks and extreme southeast Kansas, with temperatures from the mid 60s to low 70s and dewpoints in the low to mid 60s. There will be enough instability, low level jet energy and high PW values for convection to persist across the area overnight however and with the high moisture content, heavy rain will be a good bet.
At 3 am, temperatures were mainly in the lower to middle 70s. Things remain warm today, and between the patchy clouds and showers we're still looking for temperatures to reach the lower and middle 80s.
1229 AM CDT Thu May 18 2017 Aloft: A longwave trof was over the Wrn USA. Substantial heating could occur there even though the warm front remain to the S. The area is expected to be sitting north of a warm frontal boundary across KS, keeping the potential for stratus around.
Southwest Idaho remains under the influence of upper level low over northern Utah this morning. The low pressure system will continue southeast into Colorado on Friday allowing the upper level ridge along the Pacific coast to expand eastward. This will bring drier and warmer conditions. Temperatures will warm from the low 60s today into the low 70s on Friday in the lower valleys. Expect stream flows to increase beginning Friday as snow will start to melt in the higher elevations.
A cold front is forecast to slowly move toward Indiana from the northwest and arrive here Friday.
Intermittent light snow showers will continue this morning for the high terrain in southwest Montana and Lemhi county, but the best moisture has moved out of the area to the southeast. Temperatures remain below average, but will feel warmer compared to yesterday's exceptionally cold weather. On Friday, the large scale trough that has been over the Rockies will move over the central U. , with a ridge developing off the West Coast.