Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1055 PM MDT Wed Jul 31 2019 20Z upper level analysis has ridge over the southwestern and south central CONUS with trofs over the Pacific Northwest and across the Great Lakes area. At the surface, weak low pressure is located across southern Manitoba with trailing boundaries across the central Dakotas and across northern Montana. Upper level pattern varies little over the next several days as high pressure resides across the central and southern Rockies. Lee trof from central MT into eastern CO moves little.
High pressure moving into southern California by this weekend will compress the marine layer and result in a slight warming trend.
347 AM CDT Thu Aug 1 2019 More of the same dry and seasonable weather today as high pressure remains centered over the Great Lakes. Temperatures and dew points will warm a few degrees higher than yesterday as light southeasterly winds continue with the high centered off to our west. Highs will warm into the low to mid 80s with dewpoints approaching the low to mid 60s, so more typical summertime humidity is expected today compared to prior days. Mid to high cloud cover will stick around as a series of impulses aloft round the ridge core to our southwest, any precipitation form this forcing aloft is expected to remain well to the north and west.
Yet given the low level moisture with dewpoints in the mid 60s and model soundings showing afternoon CIN eroding towards zero will keep the slight chance for thunder across the entire area this evening. Temperatures today will be a few degrees warmer than yesterday, in the mid to upper 80s as a mostly sunny day is expected.
A cold front has finally almost made it across Middle Tennessee, as winds have turned north and lower dew points are filtering in. Otherwise, high pressure will provide fair wx with generally light north winds.
WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO The first week of August we will be in a "Nonsoon" pattern (aka No Monsoon) as a quasi-stationary trough settles over the Pacific Northwest and brings dry southwest flow all along the West Coast.
1139 PM EDT Wed Jul 31 2019 Dry weather is expected tonight under high pressure. With weak disturbance rounding the persistent upper trough, scattered afternoon thunderstorms will develop along and south of I-68 Thursday with drier weather to the north.
The subtropical ridge continues to dominate over the Texas with northeasterly flow in the middle to upper levels.
Other than a stray shower or storm, the area should remain dry trough this evening.
306 AM EDT Thu Aug 1 2019 Updated at 300 AM EDT Thu Aug 01 2019 The Ohio Valley sits between two large scale features: a large upper level ridge over the central US and a longwave trough extending across the eastern CONUS.
The high pressure system responsible for this monsoonal flow of moisture into the southwest is expected to move eastward. As such, this moisture will move into our forecast area by late tonight/Thursday contributing to more widespread showers and storms as the flow moves north while sliding further eastward around the high. Dry air flows in from the northwest as the the high slides back west over our forecast area on Friday. However, high elevation, diurnally-driven showers and storms will continue in the high elevations.
432 AM EDT Thu Aug 1 2019 Pattern not expected to change much next 48 hours, still stuck in the middle of two large upper ridges with plenty of moisture. This high PW and weak mean winds will increase risk of flash flooding today and Friday, though gridded FFG quite high, esp over middle GA due to overall dry soil conditions from lack of rainfall last few weeks. SNELSON A broad upper level southeast trough will continue to dominate the weather for GA. The upper trough eventually drifts a bit east toward the Atlantic Coast by mid week.
/issued 319 PM CDT Wed Jul 31 2019/ Despite the fact that we are pretty much under the center of the ridge, and will be for the next few days, a CU field has developed thanks to moisture trapped in the H7-5 layer and afternoon heat. Our heat streak will continue the next two days due to our position under the high, but good news arrives late Friday night in the form of a weak front.
318 AM EDT Thu Aug 1 2019 High pressure will remain over the Great Lakes Region through the weekend.
327 AM CDT Thu Aug 1 2019 A large, broad area of high pressure on the surface chart extends across the southern Great Lakes and influences the lower Ohio River Valley as well. A fetch of higher dew point air helps fuel an MCS to the west, and an inverted trof of lower pressure to the east.
With an upper level high parked over the region, mostly clear skies are anticipated through this time, with occasional breezy wind speeds today. The upper high saga continues. 595dm upper high, now centered over NE NM and the northwestern Panhandles, will continue to head just a bit farther east through Thursday afternoon. Despite the best efforts of the ridge to squash precipitation chances, an area of light showers has developed across SE CO.
348 AM CDT Thu Aug 1 2019 Weak troughing will continue to allow for disorganized afternoon storms to develop for the next few days. The boundary that still hovers near our area will become even more diffuse and remain fairly stationary as the upper trough over the eastern U.
Moisture will continue to increase today ahead of a slow moving upper level trough and front approaching from the west. Despite the trough, high pressure will nudge into the area from the Atlantic, and daytime temperatures will again be slightly above normal with highs in the low to mid 90s. An upper level trough axis will remain west of the region with an upper ridge off the southeast coast and over the Desert Southwest. The GFS and ECMWF show an upper level trough in the region, though the ECMWF has the trough farther east. Models depict a plume of moisture from the tropics although the deepest moisture may remain east of the forecast area ahead of upper troughing.
Upper anticyclone will move a little closer to our area and may aid in providing some subsidence.
12Z upper air analysis shows a long-wave trof positioned from the Great Lakes southward to the Gulf where it intersects an upper low. At the surface, a weak pressure ridge pattern was in place over the deep south while a quasi-stationary frontal boundary was draped from the eastern Great Lakes southwest across AR then up into the central and northern Plains. A warm and muggy night with overnight lows in the lower to mid 70s. Upper trof remains in place Thursday while deep layer moisture gradually improves with PWAT values 1.
140 AM EDT Thu Aug 1 2019 A cold front will stall along just west the Appalachians while high pressure builds into the Great Lakes, keeping most of the area dry from Thursday through the weekend. As the high pressure and NW flow builds in so do more comfortable dewpoints uncharacteristic of early August, with highs on Thursday in the low to barely pushing mid 80s, and a cool upper 50s to lower 60s for lows Thursday night. Amplified mid level flow characterized by a strong ridge over the Rockies and a mean trof over the northeast. Lagging mid level trof and moderate instability may lead to a few lingering showers/storms over the southeast Friday afternoon. This high will offer mainly dry weather and temperatures close to normal with highs generally in the lower and middle 80s through the weekend.
High pressure remains in control of the weather across the CWA today. Expect clouds to dissipate over northern Illinois this evening and with light to calm winds forecast, went on the cooler side of guidance for lows tonight.
Over the CONUS, a ridging west / troughing east setup will continue for the remainder of the week. Rex-style blocking situated east of Greenland across the North Atlantic should begin breaking down during the latter part of the week. An upper low over Quebec will help maintain mean troughing extending southward along the east coast.
250 AM EDT Thu Aug 1 2019 A cold front will become nearly stationary across the central Appalachians and middle Atlantic states through the weekend. A weak cold front will remain to our west and north today. The mid/upper trough with the associated cold pocket aloft (-11 to -13 degrees Celsius) at H5 over the central Appalachians to southern Mid-Atlantic states will remain over the region today as it gradually weakens with time. Lows Friday night 63-70, cooler around Roxboro and Henderson. This is all thanks for a combination of a stationary front stalled across our area and a mid/upr trough over the eastern CONUS with its axis basically aligned along the mountains. Given our position east of the trough axis, look for s/sw flow to provide plenty of moisture to interact with the aforementioned boundary.
414 AM EDT Thu Aug 1 2019 The region will remain between high pressure centered over the Great Lakes and a stalled front along the west side of the Appalachians into the weekend. Daytime heating combined with weak impulses dropping into the mid level trough across the region will generate isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon with greater coverage in southeast counties. Highs will rise into the lower to mid 80s. Mid level trough remains across the region with weak disturbances moving through it.
Heat will continue under the influence of the ridge through Friday, followed by cooler temperatures and modest rain chances this weekend. Thursday looks to be very similar to yesterday, with little movement in the upper level ridge.
However it is fairly clear now with temperatures back into the low 80s and dew points in the mid 60s to low 70s. However, the sun will be setting by then and the low level jet and 850mb warm advection is not that impressive. Think most activity will diminish by late evening, but some of the high resolution models show a shower or weak storm lingering into the overnight hours up along the Canadian border.
Plan view progs show the pesky midlevel deformation axis that was responsible for dense cumulus field earlier today to be shunted to the south of the state line by the high pressure. Given the expected strong marine push as northeast flow fills in tonight around the eastern periphery of building high pressure, it stands to reason that some marine stratus or fog may manifest for areas north of I-69, though confidence is marginal at best. Otherwise high pressure and mostly sunny skies dominate through the end of the work week with temperatures near climatological average values.
Storms will first form over higher terrain, then moving into the lower elevations in the late afternoon and early evening. This means convection initiating over the higher terrain by late morning and moving into the lower elevations later in the day.
A northerly upper level flow will prevail across the mid south during this period, promoted by a ridge centered across along the southern and central Rockies. A number of explicit model solutions indicate energy rotating around the ridge will promote conditions favorable for overnight MCS activity during this period.
Northeast winds will keep the lakeshore areas cooler both today and Friday with highs inland in the lower 80s today and mid 80s Friday.
High pressure will continue to drift off to the southeast on Friday with northwest flow aloft.
High pressure is currently centered over the northern Great Lakes region. The high will move little today which will mean a continuation of the dry weather pattern. Tonight will see little change in this pattern as the high remains anchored over the northern U.
Updated at 300 AM EDT Thu Aug 01 2019 The Ohio Valley sits between two large scale features: a large upper level ridge over the central US and a longwave trough extending across the eastern CONUS.
/Today through Friday/ A large upper ridge centered over the Southern High Plains will continue to dominate our weather. This MCS will continue to be steered southward by northerly flow aloft on the eastern periphery of the upper ridge.
Temperatures cool slightly today, before a gradual warm up to above average temperatures by the weekend as high pressure over the Four Corners area expands north and west.
Upper level ridge remains centered over the high plains through the weekend.
The high pressure system responsible for this monsoonal flow of moisture will gradually move east and south.
648 AM EDT Thu Aug 1 2019 The region will remain between high pressure centered over the Great Lakes and a stalled front along the west side of the Appalachians into the weekend. Daytime heating combined with weak impulses dropping into the mid level trough across the region will generate isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon with greater coverage in southeast counties. Highs will rise into the lower to mid 80s. Mid level trough remains across the region with weak disturbances moving through it.
/issued 315 AM CDT Thu Aug 1 2019/ An upper high has settled overhead and will bring with it continued thickness increases and hot temperatures. Tomorrow's highs will be a degree or 2 warmer despite the high beginning its retreat westward (though not far westward).
/issued 335 AM CDT Thu Aug 1 2019/ A large upper level ridge of high pressure currently centered across the southern rockies and high plains will be the main weather influence for west Texas and southeast New Mexico through Friday.
A weak cold front is forecast to move into the far north Friday.
High pressure remains over the area resulting in clear skies, light winds, and low wave heights into the weekend.
The upper level pattern continues with a high pressure ridge to the west. Models indicate a slightly better chance for PoPs over the Victoria Crossroads with an upper level disturbance moving south around the ridge this morning.
409 AM CDT Thu Aug 1 2019 (Today and Tonight) Hot and dry weather to prevail again today, with the upper ridge dominating. Lows tonight will be in the lower and middle 70s.
Weak troughing will continue to allow for disorganized afternoon storms to develop for the next few days. The boundary that still hovers near our area will become even more diffuse and remain fairly stationary as the upper trough over the eastern U.
Monsoon ridge was anchored over the southern and central Rockies. The ridge builds back for Friday with mid level heights reaching 592dm over northern Wyoming. Temperatures will be very warm today and Friday, with highs in the lower to mid 90s. In general there will be a broad ridge located over the Rockies. However, the southwesterly flow associated with this ridge will have plenty of weak impulses of energy moving across the area.
/Issued 432 AM EDT Thu Aug 1 2019/ Pattern not expected to change much next 48 hours, still stuck in the middle of two large upper ridges with plenty of moisture. This high PW and weak mean winds will increase risk of flash flooding today and Friday, though gridded FFG quite high, esp over middle GA due to overall dry soil conditions from lack of rainfall last few weeks. SNELSON A broad upper level southeast trough will continue to dominate the weather for GA. The upper trough eventually drifts a bit east toward the Atlantic Coast by mid week.
Storms will first form over higher terrain, then moving into the lower elevations in the late afternoon and early evening.
556 AM CDT Thu Aug 1 2019 More of the same dry and seasonable weather today as high pressure remains centered over the Great Lakes. Temperatures and dew points will warm a few degrees higher than yesterday as light southeasterly winds continue with the high centered off to our west. Highs will warm into the low to mid 80s with dewpoints approaching the low to mid 60s, so more typical summertime humidity is expected today compared to prior days. Mid to high cloud cover will stick around as a series of impulses aloft round the ridge core to our southwest, any precipitation form this forcing aloft is expected to remain well to the north and west.
6", with the lowest from Tucson south into Santa Cruz and southern Cochise Counties. Given the general downturn, less moisture/instability, and lack of steering flow, storms should favor the higher terrain through the afternoon. The high pressure will remain in a fairly favorable position from New Mexico into the Four Corners region with east to southeasterly flow aloft and more typical moisture values for early August.
A gentle to moderate east breeze will persist today as high pressure remains over the area.
/issued 409 AM CDT Thu Aug 1 2019/ (Today and Tonight) Hot and dry weather to prevail again today, with the upper ridge dominating. Lows tonight will be in the lower and middle 70s.
719 AM EDT Thu Aug 1 2019 High pressure will remain over the Great Lakes Region through the weekend.
301 AM MDT Thu Aug 1 2019 Upper ridging is persisting across the central CONUS, with the main axis through the Dakotas. Chances for storms will return Friday afternoon and evening as ridge ridging waves push through the region. A warmer and somewhat drier pattern is expected through the weekend.
High pressure bringing another night of clear skies and light winds with early morning temperatures in the mid 50s to mid 60s. Today and tonight: High pressure will remain anchored from the Great Lakes into IA and IL. Highs will be in the lower to mid 80s with lows in the mid 50s to lower 60s. As the ground dries out from lack of rain the prospects of warmer/cooler during the day/night over what the models indicate will slowly increase. high confidence Quiet, dry and warm conditions will be seen across the area as high pressure remains over the Great Lakes.
954 AM EDT Thu Aug 1 2019 A cold front will stall across SE New England today before washing out. High pressure will build into the region tonight and Friday with much lower humidity.
635 AM EDT Thu Aug 1 2019 High pressure will build in from the west today and will shift offshore southeast of the region on Friday.
An area of high pressure aloft will be centered over the Southern Plains today and tonight. Farther west, a trough of low pressure will remain offshore of the west coast of the United States today and tonight. The upper-level area of high pressure over the Southern Plains will begin retrograding westward Friday.
Little has changed in the overall weather pattern for today, with western Montana and central Idaho remaining under the influence of high pressure with southwest flow aloft. Highs will run in the low to mid 90s for western Montana valleys and mid 90s to low 100s for lower elevations of north central Idaho. As an upper level trough approaches the region Friday, a dry cold front will move through central Idaho and western Montana.
Max temps are on track for the upper 80s and lower 90s today, with the lowest values over northeast FL and along the coast.
A ridge of high pressure at the surface and aloft will be in place to start off this forecast period.
258 PM CDT Thu Aug 1 2019 The center of our high pressure can be clearly seen rotating on satellite over the TX/OK Panhandles, and temperatures are certainly reflecting this on the West Texas Mesonet this afternoon. The ridge will begin to migrate westward late tomorrow, but not in time to provide relief from the heat.
That said, the highest probabilities for heavy rainfall will remain over eastern Kansas overnight, and perhaps nudging into far western Missouri late tonight into Friday morning. One final round of thunderstorms is expected Friday night, and while some of this precipitation is expected to move across the western half of the forecast area, the most robust convection may remain over eastern Kansas as the upper high over the west begins to retrograde, shifting the heaviest rainfall west and south of our area.
Storms will first form over higher terrain, then moving into the lower elevations in the late afternoon and early evening. Cumulus fields were already forming over the higher terrain.
321 PM EDT Thu Aug 1 2019 Currently - A broad lower level trough complex located between the longitudes of the Keys and eastern Bahamas, is shifting slowly westward and sharpening northward. This is likely with the assistance of upper level diffluence provided by an upper level trough stretching southward into the Gulf of Mexico. Short Term Update - Through the next 24 hours the lower level trough will continue to stretch northward towards the eastern Gulf of Mexico and Florida while the nearly cut off gulf coast upper trough continues to meander in place. This trough is expected to slip northward and be absorbed into a trough over the Atlantic Seaboard.
240 PM CDT Thu Aug 1 2019 In the short term period, we will remain just to the east of a ridge aloft over the western half of the country. The mid level flow will be rather slack in our area, with a trof axis over the Deep South, and a general trof over the northeastern quadrant of the country. Meanwhile, a ridge of high surface pressure, centered over the Great Lakes, should have enough stabilizing influence over us to prevent most deep moist convection in our region. Otherwise, expect rain-free and mostly clear conditions with near seasonable temps (except tonight's lows, which will still be in the lower half of the 60s across the region). An upper level ridge looks to remain centered across the southwest U. with downstream troughing over the eastern U.
218 PM CDT Thu Aug 1 2019 (Tonight and Friday) Hot and dry conditions will continue across West Central Texas through the next 24 hours as an upper level ridge continues to dominate the weather across the region. Overnight lows will be in the low to mid 70s.
A cold front should be pushed completely though our western and central Kansas by Friday evening.
1117 AM MDT Thu Aug 1 2019 Upper ridging is persisting across the central CONUS, with the main axis through the Dakotas. Chances for storms will return Friday afternoon and evening as ridge ridging waves push through the region. A warmer and somewhat drier pattern is expected through the weekend.
VFR today with isolated to scattered showers/storms this afternoon generally from near ALI to VCT with the highest probability at VCT. The upper level pattern continues with a high pressure ridge to the west. Models indicate a slightly better chance for PoPs over the Victoria Crossroads with an upper level disturbance moving south around the ridge this morning.
Ridging limiting the development of storms today. Guidance of late seems to be running a little low on the afternoon high temperatures so have nudged these up slightly over the northwestern 2/3rds of the area in line with the higher end of the ensemble guidance.
1213 PM CDT Thu Aug 1 2019 More of the same dry and seasonable weather today as high pressure remains centered over the Great Lakes. Temperatures and dew points will warm a few degrees higher than yesterday as light southeasterly winds continue with the high centered off to our west. Highs will warm into the low to mid 80s with dewpoints approaching the low to mid 60s, so more typical summertime humidity is expected today compared to prior days. Mid to high cloud cover will stick around as a series of impulses aloft round the ridge core to our southwest, any precipitation form this forcing aloft is expected to remain well to the north and west.
104 PM EDT Thu Aug 1 2019 Scattered thunderstorms expected near the terminals this afternoon with the highest probability early this afternoon at CHA.
1124 AM EDT Thu Aug 1 2019 High pressure will build in from the west today and will shift offshore southeast of the region on Friday.
240 PM CDT Thu Aug 1 2019 High pressure over the Great Lakes Region will provide for dry conditions and mostly clear skies the next few days, other than scattered afternoon cumulus development. Dewpoints over central IL this afternoon are primarily upper 50s to around 60 as the high continues to push dry air into the region.
Convective debris from this morning has resulted in much cooler temperatures (~5 to 10 F) across north central/east central Oklahoma than 24 hours ago. /issued 309 AM CDT Thu Aug 1 2019/ Heat will continue under the influence of the ridge through Friday, followed by cooler temperatures and modest rain chances this weekend. Thursday looks to be very similar to yesterday, with little movement in the upper level ridge.