Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1010 PM EDT Mon Mar 21 2022 Vigorous ridging at the surface and aloft resulted in fair and stable weather across the Keys. The ridging was noted by the CIMIS Layer Mean Wind Analysis and RAOB data. Fresh to strong northeast to easterly breezes will continue through late tonight as a high pressure system extends across the southeastern United States. Breezes will slacken to gentle to moderate as the high settles over the region ahead of another frontal boundary late this week.
A ridge of high pressure will move in through the remainder of the week, bringing dry conditions along with a significant warming trend.
931 PM EDT Mon Mar 21 2022 A weak and dry cold front will drift south across the Commonwealth this evening. An upper level ridge over the Mississippi Valley will shift east toward Pennsylvania early this week.
625 PM CDT Mon Mar 21 2022 Synoptically, an upper trough will be positioned north to south from the Northern Plains through the Southern Plains. A closed upper low will lift from the Texas panhandle into central Kansas. An inverted H7 trough will act as a focus for precipitation development.
831 PM EDT Mon Mar 21 2022 High pressure along the Carolina coast early tonight will move east into the Atlantic through Tuesday night. Pleasant dry weather with a slow increase in moisture and moderating temperatures is expected through the period as the current low level easterly wind flow becomes southeast to southerly ahead of an approaching cold front which will be moving into and through the lower Mississippi valley on Tuesday. Temperatures tonight will be milder than last night as the cool/dry air mass slowly modifies with overnight lows in the mid to upper 50s north into central zones, and around 60 to the lower 60s across southwest Florida and along the coast. Daytime highs on Tuesday will be even warmer than today given the southeast to southerly wind flow with afternoon highs topping out in the mid to upper 80s areawide.
854 PM EDT Mon Mar 21 2022 Forecast remains on track tonight as high pressure center slowly pushes off the Carolina Coast and surface flow becomes light SE. On Tuesday as high pressure center builds further into the Atlantic expect breezy Southeast winds to develop under partly sunny skies with sustained winds of 15-20G25-30 mph along the Atlantic Coast with lesser winds expected inland. Max temps push into the lower/middle 80s inland and onshore flow keeps coastal areas topping out in the mid/upper 70s. High pressure will build to the northeast through Tuesday. Convergence in weak inverted coastal troughing will yield a few spotty showers Tuesday over the coastal waters, but this activity is not expected to move over land. Clouds will increase from the east due to the coastal troughing, and from the west due to the advancing front.
742 PM EDT Mon Mar 21 2022 High pressure will continue to extend across the area into Tuesday.
655 PM EDT Mon Mar 21 2022 High pressure will shift to the NC coast this evening.
358 PM MDT Mon Mar 21 2022 Water vapor imagery shows a distinct jet streak digging south along the Utah/Colorado border this afternoon behind a high amplitude longwave trough of low pressure. Temperatures have struggled to hit the 50 mark today in the low valleys. Mountain valleys will drop into the low teens tonight, but help is on the way as high pressure builds into the region and temperatures rebound steadily this week. For the time being we are waiting in the queue for low pressure to eject out onto the plains and the Pacific ridge to build eastward. Mountain locations will remain cooler tomorrow thanks to clouds and snow.
813 PM MDT Mon Mar 21 2022 After a near average day today, temperatures will take successive steps warmer through midweek.
CD Chattanooga Airport, TN 51 75 59 73 45 / 0 10 100 60 20 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 47 76 59 76 49 / 0 10 80 80 30 Oak Ridge, TN 47 75 57 74 48 / 0 10 80 70 20 Tri Cities Airport, TN 44 73 54 74 49 / 0 0 70 90 40 TN.
/issued 303 PM EDT Mon Mar 21 2022/ High pressure over the southeast U. The breezy easterly flow this afternoon will diminish overnight then increase out of the southeast on Tuesday as the high moves away from the area.
848 PM EDT Mon Mar 21 2022 High pressure near the coastline of the Carolinas will continue eastward over the western Atlantic into tonight, keeping an elevated low level E/SE flow across east central FL. Lows will range from the upper 50s to low 60s across the interior, while along the coast min temps will be in the low to mid 60s.
732 PM EDT Mon Mar 21 2022 High pressure will prevail through Tuesday. High pressure will return thereafter. Early this evening: Conditions are very quiet with high pressure in control and thin cirrus starting to increase from the west. The center of the high will gradually slip eastward and off the coast through the night, keeping the forecast area within the area of low-level onshore flow. We've maintained cooler lows as with the previous forecast, with upper 40s away from the coast increasing to low to mid 50s at the coast.
703 PM EDT Mon Mar 21 2022 High pressure will will gradually slide offshore tonight and Tuesday.
By Tuesday evening, a dry air will wrap into the Midsouth, as the upper low lifts into the mid-MS River valley.
246 PM MST Mon Mar 21 2022 After gusty winds this afternoon and cooler temperatures tonight, high pressure will bring a strong warming trend into the weekend. A drying northerly flow over the area this afternoon with the low now pushing through New Mexico. Combined with the clearing trend and lighter winds, that will help with cooler temperatures tonight. We'll still have a breezy northerly gradient in eastern areas tomorrow on the back side of the larger scale trough position.
216 PM PDT Mon Mar 21 2022 A significant warming trend is forecast to take place across the forecast area over the next few days as a ridge of high pressure builds.
136 AM EDT Tue Mar 22 2022 High pressure will shift to the NC coast this evening.
311 AM CDT Tue Mar 22 2022 Upper ridge over the area will now give way to a pretty potent storm system later today/tonight. Deep upper low pulling out of the plains around 12z will slowly wobble up into the OH valley through midday Wed. Around daybreak Wed, a cold front will be across the area. Our trailing upper trough will dig again Wed night/Thu, and then take until early Fri morning to pass. We will also see a secondary cold front pass on Thu.
305 AM CDT Tue Mar 22 2022 Latest water vapor satellite imagery shows upper level low over the panhandle of Oklahoma/western Kansas. Impulses rotating around the upper level low is producing stratiform rain across southeast Nebraska/much of Iowa/southern Illinois per latest mosaic radar. Upper level low will slowly lift northeastward today through Wednesday night. as main isentropic lift/forcing in association with upper level low tracks over the region. Late tonight into Wednesday night slightly cooler airmass advects into the northern/western parts of the forecast area. If temperatures are a degree or two cooler than what is forecasted. near freezing.
124 AM EDT Tue Mar 22 2022 High pressure will shift offshore by Tuesday.
349 AM EDT Tue Mar 22 2022 High pressure is currently situated across the Outer Banks of NC. A sprawling low pressure system is centered across central TX an central OK. A cold front extends SW from the low centers with a warm front over the northern GOMEX. High pressure and quiet conditions will persist through this afternoon. Conditions will begin to change late this evening and overnight as the frontal boundary begins to push eastward and the warm front begins to push northward. Boundary layer winds are very supportive of the warm front pushing north of the CWA by 12Z Wed.
Warmer with highs in the 50s to around 60 with some 40s in the western valleys that are still snow covered.
KS Chattanooga Airport, TN 75 59 73 45 62 / 10 90 60 20 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 76 59 76 49 63 / 0 80 80 30 20 Oak Ridge, TN 75 57 74 48 63 / 0 80 70 20 20 Tri Cities Airport, TN 73 54 74 49 65 / 0 60 90 40 20 TN.
Plenty of cloud cover tonight might help keep temperatures just a degree or two warmer than previously thought, so bumped up overnight lows to reflect that thinking. Increasing southerly surface winds will help boost temperatures into the low to mid 70s, but ample cloud cover may keep them from getting much higher than 74 or 75 in our warmest spots.
The break should come to an end late this afternoon or early this evening as rain spreads back into the CWA in association with one of the more vigorous vort maxes pivoting around this closed upper low. Not anticipating t-storms, but given the fairly strong forcing with the approaching upper trough, could see some soaking rains later this afternoon into this evening. Going forecast was a bit warmer than guidance for highs which looks reasonable and could be enough to allow some weak destabilization.
The higher rain amounts are expected along the MO/KS border. However, soundings do show some continued saturation in the low levels for these areas, so some periods of drizzle remain possible. Dew points will reach the low to mid 50s, instability will be around 1000 J/kg, deep layer shear will be around 60-80 kts, and mid level lapse rates will be steep. The cold front moving through Tuesday will bring colder temperatures to the area.
Morning lows should be mainly in the mid 50s to near 60 with highs tomorrow in the low 60s to mid 70s. By Tuesday evening, a dry air will wrap into the Midsouth, as the upper low lifts into the mid-MS River valley. Some light showers will be possible on Wednesday, ahead of a secondary compact upper low dropping to Ozarks.
High pressure will build into the area today, bringing breezy, cooler, and drier conditions. The upper low/longwave trough will be slow to progress east, so we expect some mid and upper level clouds to pass across the region today and Wednesday, but no additional rainfall is expected.
Meanwhile, this system's strong trailing cold front is entering western North Texas now, and will push through the rest of the forecast area through the morning hours. Much cooler and drier air will filter in behind this front, with a fair amount of wrap-around post-frontal stratus lingering across the northeastern 2/3rds of the forecast area. Highs will only be in the 50s and lower 60s while overnight lows dip into the lower 40s. Thanks to cooler temperatures, humidity values are largely expected to remain above 35% this afternoon, and when combined with decent rainfall in most areas, this may help substantially with fire weather concerns.
310 AM EDT Tue Mar 22 2022 High pressure will extend across the region through Tuesday and then shift offshore.
Today Through Wednesday Very active pattern setting up for the next 18 to 24 hours as the leading edge of a strong low pressure system over TX/OK is set to move into the forecast area from the west. The thunderstorms over eastern OK will slowly migrate into western AR late this afternoon as the low pressure system pushes east. CAPE values are not incredibly high with the incoming system, but various shear values are in the high range. Tuesday night a cold front will move eastward through the forecast area bringing much cooler temperatures for Tuesday night and Wednesday. Lows Tuesday morning will range from the lower 50s over the northern higher terrain to the upper 50s over the south.
1059 PM CDT Mon Mar 21 2022 (This evening through Tuesday) A mid-level trough will continue to stay over the Southern Plains through tomorrow, allowing for additional lift across the area. A cold front will begin to push through the area late this evening, and gusty northerly winds will follow in its wake.
1037 PM MDT Mon Mar 21 2022 Looking at latest GOES 16/17 satellite imagery, a deepening upper level low continues to track across southern NM with an associated cloud shield extending up along the Front Range and into the Nebraska Panhandle. Gusty north to northwesterly winds continue along and east of the Laramie Range through late this afternoon with a decent pressure gradient as cyclogenesis continues over the southern plains and high pressure builds in behind. More northerly flow at 500mb will move into the area Tuesday as the upper level trough continues to slowly progress across the southern CONUS. Warm up begins on Wednesday as 700mb temps start their climb back from -10C towards 0C as upper level ridging begins to setup for the remainder of the week.
347 AM EDT Tue Mar 22 2022 An upper level ridge over the Mississippi Valley will shift east toward Pennsylvania today while slow moving low pressure tracks into the Ohio Valley tonight.
1130 PM MDT Mon Mar 21 2022 Updated Aviation Discussion After a near average day today, temperatures will take successive steps warmer through midweek.
(06Z TAFS) With a cold frontal passage, all sites have switched to the north-northwest except FST which should see its wind switch by 07z. (Today through Wednesday afternoon) A highly amplified mid-level trough is centered over our CWA as an embedded cut-off low lifts through the central Plains. In the wake of a cold front passage overnight, northerly flow has set up across the region and will stick around through Wednesday as well.
320 AM CDT Tue Mar 22 2022 Early this morning, a deep upper level low was over the southern Plains, with extensive convection from east Texas to the lower Ohio and mid Mississippi Valley regions. Through the course of the day, the models lift the low north, northeast over the central Plains and Missouri Valley. As deeper moisture moves east tonight, we will transition to scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms wrapping around the upper low.
316 AM EDT Tue Mar 22 2022 Deep and nearly vertically stacked low pressure near the Kansas/Oklahoma border will lift NE toward the Upper Mississippi Valley today. The occluded/cold fronts should be on our doorstep off to the NW/W around 12z, and the cold front will sweep across the area during the day. Low-level theta-e advection continues ahead of the cold front, and very modest destabilization could occur. CAA in the wake of the cold front does steepen lapse rates considerably through the afternoon.
At the surface, low pressure over north central OK will lift northeast toward KC and northern MO by the end of the day, while dragging a cold front east across our region. With very cold temps aloft beneath the broad upper trough and strong deep layer shear in place, an isolated severe storm can't be ruled out in this area.
Progs are pretty insistent that this area will destabilize with the low level directional shear remaining in place with an obvious tornado/damaging wind threat once again, mainly along and southeast of a line from lower Toledo Bend Lake to near Monroe, Louisiana. All this convection shifts east of our region by late this afternoon with the arrival of a cold front with uneventful weather tonight through Wednesday.
1145 PM CDT Mon Mar 21 2022 Synoptically, an upper trough will be positioned north to south from the Northern Plains through the Southern Plains. A closed upper low will lift from the Texas panhandle into central Kansas. An inverted H7 trough will act as a focus for precipitation development.
At the 500 mb level, a closed low was near the TX/OK/NM border area and 12 hour height falls were in excess of 100 meters. Diffluent flow was in place ahead of the closed low. Much of the precipitation aloft west of the front is snow, it is just mainly the low level thermal profile that will determine when and how much snow can accumulate.
(Today and tonight) Upper low currently over the area will gradually lift northeast during the day today. Otherwise, strong north winds will overspread the area in the wake of a strong cold front that will exit southeast Oklahoma later this morning.
302 AM EDT Tue Mar 22 2022 Discussion/Marine - Showery wx pattern today through Wednesday - Rain showers are forecast today through Wednesday as a low pressure system over the Plains states moves ne into our region for midweek. There is still a bit of potential for a brief period of -fzra early Wednesday morning over our extreme nne fcst area as temps briefly dip down to near/just below the freezing mark. However this would be of short duration with minimal impacts before temps rise back to above freezing by mid to late Wednesday morning.
334 AM CDT Tue Mar 22 2022 I hope you enjoyed yesterday's warm temperatures because the rain has arrived! Low pressure in OK with a strong moisture transport northward into Iowa and Illinois. Highly amplified pattern with a deep trough in the Plains with a closed low in KS. This has the look and feel of a cut-off low due to being trapped between a full-latitude ridge along the West Coast and another ridge in the southeast United States.
A cold front associated with the system moves east over the forecast area beginning around 06z Tuesday night and moves east of the majority of the forecast area, ushering in a cooler, drier airmass. High temperatures in the upper 70s to low 80s will see a bit a cool-down Wednesday as cooler, drier air begins to overspread the forecast area.
Upper ridging over the region will maintain largely dry conditions and above normal temperatures today.
318 AM EDT Tue Mar 22 2022 High pressure will slide farther off the Southeast coast today bringing dry weather along with mild conditions.
834 PM PDT Mon Mar 21 2022 High pressure aloft and offshore flow will bring much warmer weather through the middle of the week, with areas of gusty Santa Ana winds from the mountains, into some of the valleys. A strong ridge along 130W this evening will pivot SE across the western U.
Gusty north winds and boating impacts will linger today along the Colorado River Valley then a strong ridge will build over the western states providing tranquil weather and potentially record breaking temperatures by the weekend. Our region will remain under northerly flow today between a large trough over the central and southern states and an amplified ridge building along the West Coast.
As the low ejects northeast across the southern and central Plains, precipitation coverage and intensity increase with moderate to locally heavy rainfall likely across the forecast area this evening and overnight. Flooding shouldn't be much of a concern given little instability which will keep rainfall rates on the low end. As a cold front moves into north central Kansas Tuesday morning, temperatures cool enough for snow to mix with rain. Little movement of this system, along with a few perturbations swinging around the upper low, keep scattered rain chances through the day Wednesday.
114 AM EDT Tue Mar 22 2022 A weak and dry cold front will drift south across the Commonwealth this evening. An upper level ridge over the Mississippi Valley will shift east toward Pennsylvania early this week.
458 AM EDT Tue Mar 22 2022 Currently - High pressure centered off the Carolina Coast is generating fresh easterly breezes across the Keys and surrounding waters. Forecast - Over the next couple of days the high off the Carolina Coast will push further out to sea as a large low pressure system moves into the eastern United States. This will be due to the high cell being located far to the northeast and weak troughing reaching north northeastward out of the Yucatan and the tail end of the previously mentioned eastern United States low dragging a trough along the gulf coast states.
The chance of showers decreases as we move into the afternoon as ridging begins to build in. Wednesday will be warmer yet again with dry conditions.
Ridging builds in later today allowing clouds to break up in most areas but mostly cloudy skies may continue in northwest Montana.
356 AM EDT Tue Mar 22 2022 High pressure will build south into the region and provide fair weather today.
1250 AM EDT Tue Mar 22 2022 High pressure will provide mostly dry and warm weather into Tuesday. Rain chances increase during the midweek period with approaching low pressure. High pressure will slide off of the southeast CONUS coast tonight. This will be in addition to the cloud increase from the west, as upper level moisture spill over the approaching 500mb ridge axis. A few models, particularly the NAM, are more aggressive in pushing deeper moisture into southern portions of the CWA, along with a lobe of vorticity providing lift near the 500mb ridge axis. Otherwise, as a deep trough becomes carved over the central CONUS, increasing southerly flow will continue to push a higher PWAT air mass into the region. However, the eastward progress of the central CONUS trough will be slowed by rising heights in the Caribbean area.
A trough extended from near St. Either side of the trough winds were pretty light and temperatures remained fairly mild (32 to 37 degrees).
As upper level ridge moves on shore today and overhead on Wednesday will continue to see a continual warming trend for several days.
424 AM EDT Tue Mar 22 2022 An upper level ridge over the Mississippi Valley will shift east toward Pennsylvania today while slow moving low pressure tracks into the Ohio Valley tonight.
209 AM MDT Tue Mar 22 2022 07z surface analysis had low over central OK with trough north into central MB. Water vapour loop showed upper low over central SK/MB border and another over central KS, both embedded in large scale upper trough. Wednesday, upper trough remains east of the CWA as dry gusty northwest winds continue per gradient/deep boundary layer mixing.
Deepening upper level trough will provide some short-term strong synoptic lift overnight into very early Tuesday morning. A Winter Weather Advisory seems prudent as the HRRR and RAP indicate that we could be pushing gusts in the High Wind realm. Models are advertising a closed low in the base of the aforementioned trough that could keep at least some light precip over our CWA (especially east), as the trough axis slows down during its trek east. After Wednesday, a dry period with moderating temperatures is in store as the upper level ridge to the west edges east over time.
318 AM CDT Tue Mar 22 2022 A low pressure system will continue to track eastward this morning across the Southern Plains into the Lower Mississippi River Valley. Convection ahead of a pre-frontal trough has moved into Eastern Arkansas and the Missouri Bootheel. This outflow boundary may be the trigger point of redevelopment by mid to late morning as the pre-frontal trough moves east of the Mississippi River.
the parent upper low will remain slowly meandering over the central CONUS. Temps will also remain cooler through the short term than in previous days. temps may be cold enough Wed night to see some wintry precip mix with rain in the higher terrain of the Ozarks.
419 AM EDT Tue Mar 22 2022 A rainy and cooler period is at hand with rain spreading northeast today.
Today through Wednesday A highly amplified ridge will continue to build over the West Coast and western Canada today, with the jet becoming north-south orientated over the Cowboy State. The ridge will fold over the Northern Rockies Wednesday, ushering in the more stable air over the region.
248 AM MDT Tue Mar 22 2022 Our area remains on the backside of the strong low pressure that ejected out over the plains yesterday. A weak wave will dig into the backside of the main trough later today and steepen the lapse rates in the process. Snowfall amounts will be limited, but a few inches could be possible within these bands in the higher terrain. Tomorrow the jet stream will begin to push eastward as a ridge noses over the Great Basin. The ridge will trigger warm advection beginning tomorrow so expect highs closer to normal.
As a result of these calm conditions, temperatures have dropped into the 20s over most of the area, with some locations seeing the low 20s or even upper teens. Clear skies and light winds should allow western North Dakota to drop into the low 20s tonight.