Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
These winds will be increasing over the next 36 hours as the upper Low over northern California tracks slowly to the northeast. Another mild night expected Saturday night as a cold front works across Utah. Sunday the low lifts into the Canadian Rockies with the tail of the trough pushing across our northern counties. The cold front works through the forecast area, strongest forcing across the north.
353 AM CDT SAT MAY 21 2016 Have an upper level ridge over the area with a closed low over the OR/CA region. This low will slowly wobble NE but additional lobes will rotate down behind it. With no cold fronts expected for the coming week temperatures should be fairly consistent day to day.
122 AM EDT SAT MAY 21 2016 Low pressure will move up the Ohio Valley resulting in much cooler and wet weather for Saturday and Sunday.
309 AM EDT SAT MAY 21 2016 High pressure remains centered over the Upper Mississippi Valley and the Great Lakes region early this morning. Low pressure continues to make its way eastward thru the Ohio Valley and into the Appalachians. Low pressure will continue to slide east to the mid Atlantic states today. High pressure and dry air will then be reinforced across the Wrn Great Lakes region overnight in the wake of the passing front. with cooler temps near the lakeshores as is usual for this time of year.
405 AM CDT SAT MAY 21 2016 Water vapor imagery shows high pressure over the central part of the US this morning. Dry and warmer conditions will prevail across the region today. This ridge of high pressure will shift east and flatten on Sunday.
Low level forcing associated with northward moving warm front and pwats around 2 inches was resulting in scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms this morning. It will be warmer and more humid today in the wake of the warm front with less cloud cover. Even warmer on Sunday with a more southerly onshore flow and building ridge aloft.
331 AM CDT SAT MAY 21 2016 Large scale amplification will proceed this period and the deepening upper trof in the eastern U. Highs today will be warmer than yesterday owing to considerably more sunshine although still below average. Glass The upper ridge across the Plains will shift into the MS Valley on Sunday however the blocky nature to the downstream pattern will keep surface features in slow motion.
Upper level ridging will cover the forecast area Saturday night and Sunday. At the surface, high pressure will have moved over the eastern Great Lakes. This is in response to the upper ridging moving east and short wave energy lifting into the Red River valley.
413 AM CDT SAT MAY 21 2016 On a larger scale, another Omega-type blocking situation was in place across the greater North American domain; with its anchor lows over eastern Oregon and south of the Great Lakes, and upper ridging oriented north/south across the Central/Northern Plains. Mostly clear skies and cool for tonight with lows in the low/mid 50s.
Low pressure moving through the southern Great Lakes today is not very deep but is well organized. Temperature at the 500 mb level running near -18C is allowing showers to develop increased convective nature and improve the chance of overcoming dry NE low level flow originating from high pressure over the northern Great Lakes. As the low pressure system exits into Ontario and the eastern Great Lakes tonight, it will begin to absorb a short wave from central Canada. Open sky during the evening will get temperatures falling through the 50s before the associated cold front helps readings settle into the mid and upper 40s most locations overnight. Some lingering stratocu is likely for a while Sunday, in a typical response to low level cold advection and morning acceleration of surface heating, followed by a sunny afternoon as broader high pressure takes control.
Ceilings will gradually lift becoming MVFR and then VFR during the late morning to early afternoon as a weak warm front moves northward through the area.
357 AM EDT SAT MAY 21 2016 Satellite analysis is showing a trough across the East Coast States stretching from Maryland southward across the Florida Peninsula and into the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Near the southern tip of the trough, we find showers and thunderstorms popping in confluent flow, and drifting southward toward the Florida Keys. A sharp meridional wedge of high pressure is following in the wake of the trough.
Still cooler temperatures aloft with -10c at 500mb and another mid level impulse crossing overhead during the day to keep chance POP for the coastal areas where if there is any sea breeze development some sea breeze storms can tap into the drier and cooler air and possibly become strong. High pressure ridge is forecast to build just north of Florida which is forecast to produce an East (onshore) flow with only slight modification to the dry, subsident airmass. A weak frontal trough will cross the waters this morning. Frontal trough will pass southeast of the waters by early Mon and provide a brief period of northerly flow. High pressure ridge will then build north of the waters with a gentle easterly breeze developing Tue.
452 AM CDT SAT MAY 21 2016 Surface analysis at 09z has a good moisture gradient across the area with dewpoints in the low 70s along the coast from Galveston to Victoria and dewpoints in the low 60s north of Houston to College Station. Instability may reach 2000-3000 J/Kg within the higher moisture which could lead to a pulse strong storm with small hail/gusty winds.
A slow moving low pressure system will set up shop over the Great Basin.
High pressure will provide very pleasant conditions across the area today. but cooler 60s by the lake.
1155 PM MDT FRI MAY 20 2016 AVIATION SECTION UPDATED The upper level low pressure system to the west will keep some showers in the area. A closed upper level low centered over northern CA places central MT under a moist and weakly diffluent flow aloft. A cold front has penetrated through the north central plains with temperatures holding in the 40s to near 50. This could allow for warmer temperatures Saturday with a period of partly sunny skies. Surface winds turn southeasterly and converge along a trof setting up through central MT. On Sunday, the upper level trof will continue to push eastward over the region, allowing for scattered showers to continue with steepening mid-level lapse rates.
The upper level trough axis will shift over our forecast area tonight, with the surface cyclone sliding off the New Jersey coast. On Sunday, the trough will extend into North Carolina, with the surface cyclone slowly tracking north toward the Maine coast. In the meantime, another surface cyclone will develop east of the upper trough. The combination of the cyclones and the trough will keep our weather unsettled.
A large, longwave upper level trough will continue to develop across the western United States this weekend. With mid level flow increasing across the Rockies, strengthening surface lee troughing will result in increasing south winds and low level moistening.
647 AM EDT SAT MAY 21 2016 Scattered showers will be possible today as a low pressure system pushes slowly east across the upper Ohio Valley. High pressure will build into the area through the first of the week, leading to drier conditions and a gradual warming trend. Fairly widespread showers are persisting north and west of the low across northern portions of our FA. Meanwhile, the mid and upper level trough axis will pivot east across our area through this afternoon. The upper level trough will shift slowly east tonight into Sunday as short wave energy drops down the back side of the trough. Despite continued northerly low level flow, expect enough sunshine across at least our western areas to help push temperatures into the lower 70s.
with slightly cooler temperatures near Lake Michigan.
Expect the current wind pattern to continue with the exception of a bit more development of a Denver cyclone circulation this morning. Tstms will be high based with the lower levels drying out as the drier southwesterly winds aloft mix down to the surface.
This is in response to strengthening low level southerly flow ahead of a very slow moving but large upper level trough over the western U. This trough will linger over the western U. The low level warm, moist advection has already resulted in a few isolated showers across parts of the Hill Country.
219 AM EDT SAT MAY 21 2016 High pressure continues to build into the region overnight for another dry night with clear skies. but the highest threat will be on Sunday as an upper level trough of low pressure passes across the area. High pressure continues to build into the North Country with some high clouds just beginning to enter northern New York. Expect our temps to continue to fall into the low 40s across the area and into the mid to low 30s in the areas with cold air drainage.
Models do not actually bring the surface cold front through the forecast area until Saturday afternoon. Skies should clear for Sunday as a low-level ridge begins to build in with northwesterly flow aloft.
337 AM EDT SAT MAY 21 2016 Weak split upper troughing affects eastern Canada to the lower Great Lakes into Sat. Meanwhile, strong ridge from Central Plains to south central Canada slowly will move toward Upper Great Lakes by late on Sat. At the sfc, high pressure ridge overhead much of this week will give way to weak trough crossing Lk Superior and Upper Michigan on Sat. On Sat, soundings look too dry for showers or tsra but could be sct-bkn mid clouds as the trough moves through. Passage of trough will result in nw winds and not as much of a lake breeze off Lk Michigan. Temps will be cooler east half near Lk Superior.
311 AM CDT SAT MAY 21 2016 Upper level trough was pushing into the OH valley with a vort max in MN sliding down the west side of the trough. Have gone with the lower dewpoints that the MET guidance suggests due to the decent mixing and dry airmass throughout the column. Tonight, the vort max will have moved well south of the cwa with high pressure again firmly in control. With the very dry airmass in place we will follow the cooler MAV guidance but the dewpoints off that model are probably still too high.
The low level jet develops to the west of the area tonight. The pattern will consist of a deep trough over the western US with ridging over the East Coast.
402 AM CDT SAT MAY 21 2016 High pressure anchored over the upper Midwest this morning created a gradient across western Kansas and the dry air over the higher terrain over Colorado. The location of the developing warm front/dryline zone over the far west will determined where convection initiation will be possible. Dryline storms may be possible any day of the week before a cold front moves through the area by late week.
Clouds may linger a little longer, even into tonight, esp east, as final embedded short wave passage of energy within the long wave trof doesnt pass til late tonight. And it slowly translates its ridge overtop PAH FA over the course of the day Sunday and Sunday night.
/issued 245 PM CDT FRI MAY 20 2016/ WV imagery shows West Texas and Southeast New Mexico sitting under weak upper-lvl ridging between two systems, one over the upper MS Valley and the other over northern CA. At the lwr lvls, stratus that has plagued the area over the past few days has burned off w/the exit of yesterday's trough, w/afternoon temps approaching normal once again. Upper ridge is forecast to amplify a bit over the next few days as the west coast trough moves inland, w/a weak dryline developing over mid-CWA Saturday afternoon. Sunday, leeside troughing intensifies, and westerly flow will sharpen up the dryline even more than Saturday, and push it east somewhat.
536 AM CDT SAT MAY 21 2016 Large scale amplification will proceed this period and the deepening upper trof in the eastern U. Highs today will be warmer than yesterday owing to considerably more sunshine although still below average. Glass The upper ridge across the Plains will shift into the MS Valley on Sunday however the blocky nature to the downstream pattern will keep surface features in slow motion.
expect the cooler and wetter conditions to continue through the weekend. The upper level low will begin to eject up toward the region in the afternoon.
325 AM MDT SAT MAY 21 2016 The center of a large low pressure system continues rotating in place over southeast Oregon. Its cold front will stretch north to south across Utah today and make little progress east. On Sunday the low center makes little progress east and instead lifts to the northeast into the Canadian Rockies with the tail of the trough pushing across our northern counties. The cold front will move through the forecast area, but the strongest forcing will remain across the north.
The center of the low bringing this weather is over NorCal this afternoon and will linger over us through Saturday before weakening and moving northeastward on Sunday. Thus, the cooler temperatures (around 10-20 degrees below normal) will persist along with the chance of showers and thunderstorms through Saturday.
543 AM CDT SAT MAY 21 2016 High pressure over the region will result in vfr skc conditions to prevail, with the exception of patchy areas of fog btwn 12-14z this am. /issued 405 AM CDT SAT MAY 21 2016/ Water vapor imagery shows high pressure over the central part of the US this morning. Dry and warmer conditions will prevail across the region today. This ridge of high pressure will shift east and flatten on Sunday.
533 AM EDT SAT MAY 21 2016 Warm high pressure will build over the region Today.
Upper low over Oregon will finally start to shift northeast today tracking into southern Alberta by tomorrow morning. However, the general flow will be cyclonic and unstable due to a broad scale trough over the western CONUS. Temperatures will be 5 to 15 degrees cooler Sunday over the area. There is some chance for more organized rain from compact upper lows--one to our west and another to our east--later in the week, as shown on the 00z ECMWF, but confidence in this scenario is low given the long lead time and model differences.
We will remain in this persistent trough pattern through the weekend, with waves of moisture moving across north central Idaho and western Montana throughout the day today, as well as on Sunday.
Saturday begins with an amplified upper air pattern with a large upper low centered over the California-Nevada-Oregon border. The eastern fringe of this upper low extends to eastern Montana and Wyoming. Downstream an H500 ridge extends across the Dakotas. For today, the h500 ridge will enhance the cap and should inhibit convection through the the day. Sunday will see more organized convection into lines along an advancing cold front through central North Dakota. By Sunday, much better shear arrives with the advancing upper low into North Dakota. Most unstable cape between 2 and 3 thousand is forecast along an eastward moving cold front that will erode the remnants of the capping inversion Sunday afternoon.
A large upper level low centered in eastern Oregon will move slowly northeast into central Idaho tonight and into Canada on Sunday. Unsettled weather will continue through the extended as the region remains under the influence of a mean upper level trough.
335 AM EDT SAT MAY 21 2016 Scattered showers will be possible today as a low pressure system pushes slowly east across the upper Ohio Valley. High pressure will build into the area through the first of the week, leading to drier conditions and a gradual warming trend. Fairly widespread showers are persisting north and west of the low across northern portions of our FA. Meanwhile, the mid and upper level trough axis will pivot east across our area through this afternoon. The upper level trough will shift slowly east tonight into Sunday as short wave energy drops down the back side of the trough. Despite continued northerly low level flow, expect enough sunshine across at least our western areas to help push temperatures into the lower 70s.
A large upper level low pressure system continues to spin over the pacific northwest with its center located over northeast California and moving into extreme northwest Nevada at this time. There is a lot of moisture wrapping around the low coming into the forecast area from the southeast.
312 AM CDT SAT MAY 21 2016 High pressure centered over Iowa will be the dominant weather feature today, keeping temperatures near normal and skies mostly clear aside from some cirrus spilling in from the north. A weak vort max dropping through this evening could spark off a few showers or storms, primarily across eastern/central KS where an elevated warm front will be lifting northeastward. Warm front lifting through on Sunday will bring temperatures back into the upper 70s/near 80, though the more noticeable impact will be a rapid increase in humidity with dewpoints reaching the mid and even upper 60s by late afternoon.
645 AM EDT SAT MAY 21 2016 High pressure remains centered over the Upper Mississippi Valley and the Great Lakes region early this morning. Low pressure continues to make its way eastward thru the Ohio Valley and into the Appalachians. Low pressure will continue to slide east to the mid Atlantic states today. High pressure and dry air will then be reinforced across the Wrn Great Lakes region overnight in the wake of the passing front. with cooler temps near the lakeshores as is usual for this time of year.
A weak trough is in place across the area with a few showers continuing across the southern inland zones this morning. Some upper energy will move over the area today with an upper low passing east of the state well to the north of the region. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible mainly this afternoon with the highest chances inland as winds increase from the west. A weak front will then move through the area early Sunday with drier air moving into the area through the day as high pressure builds in from the NNW. High temperatures this afternoon will be in the mid to upper 80s near the coast to the lower 90s inland.
322 AM EDT SAT MAY 21 2016 An upper-level trough continues to track across the eastern Tennessee Valley early this morning. As the base of the trough moves through during the afternoon and early nighttime hours. as well as the Blue Ridge/Great Smoky Mountains. Models a little slower clearing out the low off to our east on Sunday. This low will be slowly rotating across the Carolinas and will still impact our weather.
257 AM CDT SAT MAY 21 2016 Latest water vapor satellite imagery indicating upper level closed low over the western United States and ridging over southern Canada and Northern Plains. 00z GFS/NAM are in good agreement in developing southerly flow on the backside of ridge and advect warmer air into the forecast area.
236 AM MDT SAT MAY 21 2016 Current surface map places trof of low pressure across central Montana into eastern Wyoming. For Sunday, surface trof moves into central South Dakota.
Severe thunderstorms are possible late this afternoon and Upper trough centered over southern Oregon will very slowly shift east today. This will move the region of diffluence between the western trough and ridge over the northern plains eastward and allow for deeper ascent over eastern Montana through the afternoon and evening. Strong low level jet over the high plains keeping winds at lake wind criteria this morning.
254 AM EDT SAT AUG 27 2016 A large ridge of high pressure at the surface and aloft will build over the Mid Atlantic Region through the upcoming weekend, bringing a string of warm and dry days.
414 AM CDT Sat Aug 27 2016 At 3 AM, a weak trough of low pressure was just south of the Sabine River delta. A weak upper level low was noted just east of Brownsville at 300 MB. There appears to be a plume of moisture on the east and north side of the upper low taking aim directly at SE TX.
SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday): Brownsville radar shows some very isolated streamer showers across portions of the lower Texas Gulf waters this morning. Water vapor imagery shows a mid to upper level ridge centered over the mid Atlantic states, a 500 mb low over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico, and a weak TUTT low overhead.
644 AM EDT SAT AUG 27 2016 High pressure will bring mostly sunny skies today with temperatures reaching the the mid to upper 80s.
140 AM EDT SAT AUG 27 2016 Aviation Low pressure will move toward northern Lower Michigan Saturday. After the low moves by, a cold front will sweep through and Sunday will be mainly dry.
209 AM EDT SAT AUG 27 2016 An upper level ridge will extend across the region through the weekend. Dry sinking airmass associated with the strong ridging aloft will result in clear skies overnight with winds remaining light and variable. Morning lows in the low-mid 70s. Core of mid/upper level ridge drifts northward into central Appalachians/northern Mid-Atlantic during this period. Otherwise expect partly cloudy skies with overnight temps in the low- mid 70s. Slow weakening of mid/upper level ridge will result in high temps near 90-lower 90s. Low temps Sunday night generally in the lower 70s. However, there is still a lot of uncertainty with regard to the timing of this system and timing of a s/w trough approaching/amplifying in the northern stream mid to late week (which will play a key role in our precip chances mid to late week).
Multiple waves of convection fired in response to some weak vortmaxes rounding the SW flank of the mid-level ridge, and very unstable conditions with MLCAPE values running 3000+ J/kg. Current temperatures in the low-mid 70s are not far from forecast lows, and are unlikely to move much overnight.
625 AM EDT SAT AUG 27 2016 High pressure over the Great Lakes and Ohio valley will drift east today. This will allow low pressure to track east across the northern Great Lakes into Ontario on Sunday dragging a cold front across the region.
251 AM EDT SAT AUG 27 2016 High pressure will bring mostly sunny skies today with temperatures reaching the the mid to upper 80s.
Under mostly cloudy skies and away from any of the rain, temperatures are in the lower 80s with gentle to moderate northeasterly breezes.
An upper level ridge, centered over the mid-Atlantic region.
338 AM CDT SAT AUG 27 2016 Modest squall line initiated from upper trough moving through the Central Plains was making its way east across north central Kansas early this morning with wind gusts around 35 mph. Expect more sunshine and the lack of early precip to allow for much warmer temps in the north and west today.
647 AM EDT SAT AUG 27 2016 High pressure will bring mostly sunny skies today with temperatures reaching the the mid to upper 80s.
400 AM EDT SAT AUG 27 2016 High pressure will bring mostly sunny skies today with temperatures reaching the the mid to upper 80s.
323 AM EDT Sat Aug 27 2016 Warm and dry weather can be expected until late Sunday as high pressure slides across the Upper Ohio Valley Region. No major alterations were needed for the morning update as dry high pressure will build over the region for the near term period. With warm advection on the northern flank of strong SE CONUS ridge, expect high temperatures about 10 degrees above the averages.
326 AM MDT SAT AUG 27 2016 The trough that has persisted over the Great Basin the last few days will lift and in its wake, a closed low will form over the four corners region. As the low slowly moves east-northeast, our CWA will remain in a deformation zone which will allow more showers and thunderstorms to form this afternoon and evening. Sunday, the closed low will move across southern portions of our CWA. What appeared to be a mostly dry week is now looking wetter as a low pressure trough deepens over the western states, pushing the ridge of high pressure eastward over the central Plains states.
700 AM EDT SAT AUG 27 2016 High pressure over the Great Lakes and Ohio valley will drift east today. This will allow low pressure to track east across the northern Great Lakes into Ontario on Sunday dragging a cold front across the region.