Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Central WI will most likely be on the northern periphery of weather systems that round the base of the eastern North American trough.
343 PM EST Wed Feb 7 2018 The cold front will move through the area this evening. High pressure will ridge into the area from the north briefly Thursday.
Used a blend of Mos based guidance to lean toward the lower side of guidance across the north and into the James River Valley.
1128 AM CST Wed Feb 7 2018 MVFR conditions across area terminals to gradually improve to VFR after 08/22Z as upper-level ridge rebuilds across the region. At the surface, high pressure to maintain north winds around 10 knots, with higher gusts possible across portions of east Texas.
One note of interest: although limited ice amounts occurred from yesterday's freezing rain event, a few ice swaths can be seen across SE OK/NW AR in the GOES-16 RGB composite satellite imagery.
A cold front will be located just east and south of the forecast area at the beginning of the period and continues moving away from the area overnight.
Temperatures had dipped to freezing in the far northwest with a touch of freezing drizzle reported from the CKV sensor, but no travel problems. Measurable precip has ended over the northwest, so temps around freezing should not present problems today. This will allow patches of freezing fog to form toward daybreak, mainly around lakes and rivers.
249 PM CST Wed Feb 7 2018 A northwest flow of colder and drier air is occurring in the wake of last night's storm system, but the low level moisture is proving to be more stubborn than the models predicted. The back edge of the low clouds stalled over the lower Ohio Valley and southeast Missouri at midday. Surface winds will become light as high pressure passes nearly overhead late tonight. The forecast will mention patchy freezing fog in the Pennyrile region of west KY, where the low level moisture is greatest today.
303 PM CST Wed Feb 7 2018 High pressure will continue sliding to our south and east, with a subtle wave bringing a slight chance for very light snow overnight across far southern Minnesota. The upper air pattern continues to have a long wave trough over the center of the continent, with the baroclinic zone focused from eastern Montana, through South Dakota, Iowa, and into Illinois. Overall a very quiet period with high pressure maintains control through the period.
Temperatures had dipped to freezing in the far northwest with a touch of freezing drizzle reported from the CKV sensor, but no travel problems. Measurable precip has ended over the northwest, so temps around freezing should not present problems today. This will allow patches of freezing fog to form toward daybreak, mainly around lakes and rivers. Temps falling rapidly this morning and CKV may see a short period of freezing light precip.
Some cooler temperatures will linger into today across central and southern areas, before a warming trend commences area-wide Thursday.
330 PM CST Wed Feb 7 2018 Cold front appears to have cleared all but the extreme lower portions of the coastal parishes as of 230 pm.
After a brief visit from high pressure Thursday, several weak systems will keep us unsettled through the weekend. More freezing rain than anything else across the south these last few hours, but it is ending in most locations - perhaps before I can press the "transmit" button. Temps drop overnight as the NW wind increases a bit early tonight after the front/trough pushes past. After a short break from the upslope SHSN during the morning, a very compact upper trough will swing overhead later in the day, which could make a dusting of snow over the NW mtns.
Much warmer. Flow becomes more zonal aloft, encouraging weak lee troughing along the KS/CO border. Highs on average should be around 20 degrees warmer Thursday afternoon, and into the low to mid 60s in the west.
Issued by National Weather Service Little Rock AR 1143 AM CST Wed Feb 7 2018 The cold front is just east of the area. High pressure will continue to build into the region. /issued 238 AM CST Wed Feb 7 2018/ A cold front has just passed through Monroe County, MS. The freezing line currently stretches from near Harrisburg, Arkansas northeastward to Union City, TN. North and west of this line, freezing rain or freezing drizzle is occurring while south and east of this line remains rain. Expect temperatures to drop into the lower to mid 40s over the course of the day. With clear skies and light winds, expect temperatures to plummet into the lower to mid 20s for lows. Temperatures will begin to rebound on Thursday as the high shifts east.
Except for some continued gusty winds over the next few hours, surface winds will be light, dropping to below 5kt at all terminals overnight as high pressure shifts east of the region. High pressure will begin to retreat to the east on Thursday and southerly winds will be seen by the afternoon for most locations. Temperatures will begin to moderate with highs on Thursday expected to be 10 degrees warmer than Wednesday, overnight lows will show similar moderating as well.
312 PM EST Wed Feb 7 2018 Low pressure will rapidly track through the Gulf of Maine this evening. The low will continue east into the Maritimes late tonight.
A strong high pressure system anchored over the Eastern Pacific will result in continued dry weather and above normal daytime temperatures through the weekend. Cooler temperatures reported across the region this morning under clear skies and weaker winds. Meanwhile, breezy conditions persist in the higher elevations with more mild temperatures. Regardless of the cooler start to the day, looking for afternoon conditions to warm to 15 to 20 deg F above seasonal averages with widespread record breaking temperatures likely. At this time, it appears this cooler air mass and associated clouds/fog may only impact the far southern portion of the Monterey County coastline (Big Sur Coast mainly south of Gorda. The strong ridge of high pressure located over the Eastern Pacific will continue to provide dry and mild weather through the forecast period.
1132 AM CST Wed Feb 7 2018 A ridge of high pressure is progged to settle south across the area today bringing light winds but keeping a cool airmass entrenched across the area. Locations across central KS that received some light snow may struggle to reach freezing while those near the OK state line in south central KS see highs approaching 40. As high pressure continues to translate eastward away from the region on Thursday, breezy southwesterly winds will advect warmer air into the area with highs expected to top out in the 50s.
Cross-sections show a shallow layer of moisture over the higher terrain this evening and Thursday with a favorable orographic component. However lapse rates forecast to be poor so any accumulation will be under 3 inches and mainly over the higher northern mountains. Across the lower elevations, a tight pressure gradient will move through the forecast area bringing downslope flow near the front range spreading east.
Adjusted POPs through tonight and made minor adjustments to smooth out temp/dewpoint trends based on location of the cold front. In the wake of this morning's cold front, most locations have likely reached their max daytime temperature for today, and temperatures will generally hold steady or continue to fall through this afternoon. Expect the low end severe weather/flooding threats and frontal boundary to continue shifting south with time while waning as better forcing shifts east of the forecast area. Low temperatures tonight will dip below freezing for much of the ArkLaMiss.
Cross-sections show a shallow layer of moisture over the higher terrain thru tonight with a favorable orographic component. At lower elevations a sfc lee trough will begin to develop along the front range with downslope flow by aftn. Thus will see warmer temps over most of nern CO except possibly over the far ern plains. Thus will see periods of gusty winds over the higher terrain and near the foothills, however, speeds will stay below warning criteria.
127 PM EST Wed Feb 7 2018 A cold front will approach from the west today bringing increasing chances of rain to the area. The cold front will move through the area this evening. High pressure will ridge into the area from the north briefly Thursday.
Winds will also veer to the northwest at all of the terminals as a cold front pushes through the area this afternoon.
419 PM EST Wed Feb 7 2018 WPC surface analysis this afternoon shows a stationary front draped southward from the Ohio valley, along with a 1024 mb high pressure centered near Bermuda.
313 PM EST Wed Feb 7 2018 Low pressure will move through the Gulf of Maine this evening and will continue northeast into the Canadian Maritimes overnight.
239 PM CST Wed Feb 7 2018 (Today and Thursday) Quiet weather in the short term, with the upper level trough having passed the area. Afternoon highs in the low to mid 60s.
High pressure centered over the eastern Pacific will continue to provide unseasonably warm temperatures and dry conditions for the remainder of the week. Clear and dry conditions across central CA as a large ridge of high pressure continues to dominate the weather pattern.
/NF/ Adjusted POPs through tonight and made minor adjustments to smooth out temp/dewpoint trends based on location of the cold front. In the wake of this morning's cold front, most locations have likely reached their max daytime temperature for today, and temperatures will generally hold steady or continue to fall through this afternoon. Expect the low end severe weather/flooding threats and frontal boundary to continue shifting south with time while waning as better forcing shifts east of the forecast area. Low temperatures tonight will dip below freezing for much of the ArkLaMiss.
110 PM EST Wed Feb 7 2018 Low pressure will lift northeast this afternoon, with remaining mixed precipitation changing over to snow by evening. High pressure builds overhead for the latter half of the week, with some moderation in temperature for the weekend. Have just about an inch or two in the forecast as the system departs, with high pressure building overhead quickly by Thursday.
1003 AM CST Wed Feb 7 2018 Despite the cold start, warmer highs are expected today compared to yesterday. This morning, by midnight, the remaining freezing drizzle had exited Bryan and Atoka counties and ended farther to the north, with dry conditions expected to persist.
With the freezing rain threat ending earlier this afternoon we allowed the winter weather headlines to expire at 1 PM. With the passage of the cold front colder air is on its way back into eastern Kentucky. There have been few if any impacts from the freezing rain, sleet and snow, but as temperatures fall into the 20s tonight a few slick spots could develop. High pressure building into the area will bring decreasing clouds on Thursday. With the high quickly shifting to our east Thursday night we'll be set for a warm up heading into the end of the week. However, another cold night will be in store Thursday night, with eastern valleys decoupling and ending up being several degrees cooler than the ridges.
After the cold front passes the sites, expect a brief period of MVFR to ocnl IFR cigs before conditions then improve to VFR. A cold front will push southeastward and move into our CWA this afternoon and evening.
A line of showers and thunderstorms just ahead of a cold front continue to move across the area this afternoon. With the cold front moving through the area before sunrise, expect some cooler temperatures to make it into our northern zones, with lows in the mid 40s. Lows in the Florida Big Bend will be warmer, generally in the mid 50s.
247 PM CST Wed Feb 7 2018 The low pressure system and cold front that produced 1-2 inch rainfall amounts late night and this morning, had moved east of our area. A big question is when (or if) the low clouds will break up. As temperatures drop through the 20s, any fog that forms will be "freezing fog" and could cause a thin layer of ice to form on surfaces, especially bridges and overpasses. We think the drier air moving in with the high pressure will keep this freezing fog from becoming widespread, but where it forms, it could create hazardous travel conditions. The patches of freezing fog are most likely near lakes and rivers. Patchy freezing fog is likely to linger til 9 AM CST Thursday, then mainly sunny skies under high pressure will help temperatures warm into the seasonable 40s.
Model soundings indicate that it is questionable whether or not it will be cold enough in the cloud layer for ice crystallization when precip is occurring, but for now will continue to allow for some snow showers in the higher terrain areas before the precipitation ends.
A strong ridge of high pressure over the eastern Pacific will remain in place through late week resulting in dry weather conditions and temperatures well above seasonal averages. Unseasonably warm and dry conditions prevail region- wide as a strong ridge of high pressure remains parked over the eastern Pacific. Overnight conditions will remain clear with decent cooling in the valleys, yet temperatures will still be warmer than what's typical this time of year. The medium range models continue to show the dominate ridge weakening and retreating to the west at some point this weekend which would allow for slight cooling aloft.
414 AM MST Mon Feb 26 2018 Upper trof continues to push east across the Great Lakes region, with another wave moving into the Northern Rockies, and ridging in between. Surface winds are southwesterly around 10-20 kts, with a weak warm front moving across the CWA. Warmer air will continue to advect into the area today, with the region under southwest flow.
A developing upper level low pressure system over California later today will eventually turn east and track across Arizona midweek. Precipitation on the periphery of this low pressure system will impact northern Utah through Tuesday, then southern Utah midweek.
415 AM CST Mon Feb 26 2018 Cold front has pushed about 65 nm off the coast early this morning taking the bulk of precip with it. The 500mb trof currently digging southward down the west coast will kick out and across north Tx Wed night.
446 AM CST Mon Feb 26 2018 Even warmer conditions are expected today although it will also be windier with gusty south southwest winds.
High pressure was settling into the Ohio valley, while low pressure moves ne away from James Bay. The center of the high will be nearly stationary, but a ridge axis will pivot east of MI today. So the primary concern is how quickly the arrival of warmer/drier air erodes our current cloud cover. These values are 5 to 15 degrees warmer than normal. Increasingly gusty southwest winds during the day Tuesday will aid to boost temperatures well above normal with highs ranging from the low 40s across eastern upper to the 50s over the majority of northern lower. Precip-type remains the greatest challenge as forecast model soundings suggests all rain to start, but may mix with snow and/or freezing rain at times for the second half of the overnight, especially across the higher terrain.
The strength of the low level offshore flow should hold the east coast sea breeze near the Volusia beaches or just offshore but the east coast breeze should make slow progression on to the mainland from the Cape south to the Treasure Coast this afternoon. Moisture in the H8-H7 layer will be marginal for showers across nrn sections today with disparity in the high resolution short range guidance. Ridge axis across the central to southern waters will keep a more southerly flow across the area, becoming E/SE near the coast, esp south of Cape Canaveral in the afternoon as the sea breeze develops and pushes inland.
617 AM EST Mon Feb 26 2018 High pressure, which was located near Bermuda, will weaken, and sink southward as a cold front approaches the region. /issued 354 AM EST Mon Feb 26 2018/ Latest WPC surface analysis depicts a cold front extending from the northwestern Gulf of Mexico east northeastward towards the Carolinas. Subsidence from strong high pressure aloft will continue to bring warmer than normal weather. Maximum temperatures are forecast to again reach the lower 80s along the immediate coastline and mid 80s further inland.
511 AM CST Mon Feb 26 2018 A mid-level ridging pattern will continue to advance over the Central Plains today, maintaining fair weather conditions until the next storm system approaches late Tuesday. Ample sunshine today will lead to increased mixing within the lower levels this afternoon. Afternoon highs will top out in the mid 50s to lower 60s across the area, with above-freezing overnight lows as warm advection persists. The persistent warming trend will send afternoon highs into the low to mid 60s Tuesday afternoon. Rain chances will then return Tuesday night within the warm sector underneath a weak mid- level wave ejecting out of a deep southwestern CONUS upper low.
628 AM EST Mon Feb 26 2018 Cold front across the area today will bring cloudy skies and rain then move offshore this evening.
1046 AM EST Mon Feb 26 2018 High pressure will bring dry weather and mild weather through Tuesday night.
536 AM CST Mon Feb 26 2018 High pressure centered over the Ohio Valley will drift east over the next 24 hours which will bring increasing southerly flow back to Missouri and Illinois. Mostly clear sky should prevail tonight as well under broadscale mid and upper level ridging. Other than those spots, think lows will be pretty uniform in the low to mid 40s across the forecast area. The combination of west-southwest flow aloft associated with weak upper level ridging and increasing south-southwest low level flow and attendant WAA should translate to well above normal high temperatures.
519 AM EST Mon Feb 26 2018 High pressure will bring dry weather and mild temperatures through Tuesday night.
Areas of fog continue to develop (as of writing) across inland areas as significantly drier air continues to increase in the H9 to H6 layer and as the lowest 100mb remains saturated.
633 AM EST Mon Feb 26 2018 High pressure will reside across the Ohio Valley through Tuesday night.
531 AM EST Mon Feb 26 2018 A cold front will cross the region early this morning. High pressure with mild temperatures will move over the area for the early and middle work week.
537 AM CST Mon Feb 26 2018 Fairly quiet period for the short term with a few clouds, a passing clipper, and warmer temperatures the main story. Southerly to southwesterly winds today will usher in warmer temperatures with highs in the middle 30s to low 40s. Temperatures will trend cooler for Tuesday with highs from the low 30s northwest to near 40 southeast.
411 AM CST Mon Feb 26 2018 Expect clear sailing early this week under quasi-zonal flow aloft and high pressure at the surface. begins to turn more southwesterly well ahead of a large southwestern CONUS trof Tue night, probability of rain is expected to ramp up. At this time, parameters appear to favor severe weather farther south across the lower MS River valley. As a result, a cold front will be knocking on the western door late Wed night.
Widespread snow is continuing this morning across much of southeast Oregon and southwest Idaho ahead of an approaching upper trough and accompanying surface front.
258 AM PST Mon Feb 26 2018 A cold low pressure system from the north will bring periods of rain and snow showers with low snow levels tonight through Tuesday.
510 AM PST Mon Feb 26 2018 A relatively cold low pressure system will arrive today and bring precipitation to the region.
237 AM PST Mon Feb 26 2018 Breezy, southwest winds and warmer conditions are expected today as our next low pressure system approaches from the north. It will be much cooler on Tuesday as the low pressure system treks over southern California.
Across the lower latitudes, there is still a ridge oriented from 30 N 70 W, with a weakening attendant axis analyzed west southwest from that point to across Central Florida. Ridging will slide south down the Florida Peninsula, allowing slackening breezes from the southeast. Just some cumulus will be scattered about but ample middle level dry air will prevent any measurable rainfall, except for maybe over the warmer Florida Straits.
Overnight as the cold front moves through might see a brief band of showers and then a period of 1-2 KFT ceilings at all fields immediately post frontal.
1043 AM EST Mon Feb 26 2018 High pressure over the Ohio Valley will slowly drift eastward by mid week.
/Today through Tonight/ Large area of high pressure in place to the south of the state stretching from the OK/TX panhandle region northeastward into the Ohio Valley. This will shift east and south through today into tonight as an area of low pressure develops off tot he west across the western high plains region.
634 AM EST Mon Feb 26 2018 Short wave trough and associated pcpn beginning to move out of the area.
408 AM MST Mon Feb 26 2018 Upper level flow will shift to the southwest today as a trough of low pressure deepens along the West Coast. The southwesterlies will advect warmer air across the region causing afternoon highs to climb to near normal levels. The West Coast trough continues to dig southward with a closed low circulation forming over California's Bay area during the night. Dry conditions continue into Tuesday as the low drifts slowly southward over Southern California. A col between the closed low and the northern stream will set up across Utah allowing deeper moisture to impinge on the eastern Uinta Mountains during the afternoon.
308 AM MST Mon Feb 26 2018 Upper trof continues to push east across the Great Lakes region, with another wave moving into the Northern Rockies, and ridging in between. Surface winds are southwesterly around 10-20 kts, with a weak warm front moving across the CWA. Warmer air will continue to advect into the area today, with the region under southwest flow.
Expect clear sailing early this week under quasi-zonal flow aloft and high pressure at the surface. begins to turn more southwesterly well ahead of a large southwestern CONUS trof Tue night, probability of rain is expected to ramp up. At this time, parameters appear to favor severe weather farther south across the lower MS River valley. As a result, a cold front will be knocking on the western door late Wed night.
1009 AM EST Mon Feb 26 2018 Cold front across the area today will bring cloudy skies and rain.
526 AM CST Mon Feb 26 2018 Much quieter weather in the short term as high pressure dominated the next couple days. Light winds under the ridge this morning could see a little variability, but will trend more southwesterly as the day goes on. This trend with the winds will keep warmer air moving into the region.
846 AM EST Mon Feb 26 2018 High pressure will bring dry weather and mild temperatures through Tuesday night.
621 AM CST Mon Feb 26 2018 Even warmer conditions are expected today although it will also be windier with gusty south southwest winds.
Some clearing is expected to occur this evening and overnight, which will set up conditions for cold morning temperatures Tuesday morning and possibly some freezing fog.
High pressure over the Western Atlantic waters will continue to move slowly southward into the Bahama islands and extend into South Florida, as a weak cold front moves southward into the Southeastern United States from the north. /issued 617 AM EST Mon Feb 26 2018/ High pressure, which was located near Bermuda, will weaken, and sink southward as a cold front approaches the region. /issued 354 AM EST Mon Feb 26 2018/ Latest WPC surface analysis depicts a cold front extending from the northwestern Gulf of Mexico east northeastward towards the Carolinas. Subsidence from strong high pressure aloft will continue to bring warmer than normal weather. Maximum temperatures are forecast to again reach the lower 80s along the immediate coastline and mid 80s further inland.
A cold front is progressing from northwest to southeast across Southern Oregon and Northern California this morning. and others expected to see icy roads due to some slush on roadways with freezing temperatures.
For 12z Aviation discussion below Northwest flow in the wake of the cold front will yield a relatively cold day with below normal temperatures and brisk winds.