Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL SPREAD SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG THE MOUNTAIN RIDGES AND WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE HIGH DESERT OVERNIGHT. IT WILL BE COOLER.
449 AM EST THU FEB 18 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY.
A FAST MOVING PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY.
251 AM CST THU FEB 18 2016 HIGH PRESSURE HAS MOVED TO THE GREAT LAKES AS OF EARLY TODAY. THIS IS ROUGHLY THE POSITION OF THE WARM FRONT. I WILL GO WARMER THAN THAT.
325 AM EST THU FEB 18 2016 DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG THE COAST THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE MOVING OUT TO SEA TODAY. ALLOWING AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. SHOULD SEE HIGHS TODAY IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. LONG WAVE UPPER RIDGE WILL FLATTEN FRIDAY ALLOWING A MORE ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE REGION.
OTHERWISE WILL BE STARTING OUT MILD HOWEVER WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS SOUTH OF THE FA AND CLOUDS A FACTOR AGAIN TODAY. AM EXPECTING ONLY A MODEST RECOVERY BUT STILL SHOULD GET ABOVE FREEZING WITH LACK OF SNOW COVER. LACK OF DEEPER LAYERED RH WILL CONTINUE TO BE AN ISSUE TONIGHT AS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES. CONFIDENCE ON PCPN POTENTIAL FRIDAY CONTINUES ON THE LOW SIDE SO DID NOT INCREASE POPS. ANY PCPN ON BACK SIDE OF DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE WILL BE LIQUID.
For the near, have high pressure right over the region. A few sites are reporting in with a quarter mile and freezing fog, and area webcams indicate most regions are not dense. Thus will continue to have a special weather statement covering the patches of denser fog and the threat it may pose with below freezing temperatures. The high is forecast to shift east today. Tonight, a broad area of low pressure will move into the Northern Plains. The pressure gradient between the high to our east and this low will mean steadily increasing winds through the night.
TEMPERATURES WERE HEADED DOWN INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S INLAND TO NEAR 50 NEAR THE COAST. THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL GENERALLY UNDERGO A SLOW TRANSITIONARY PERIOD OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES MIGRATES EASTWARD WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASING AT THE SURFACE TODAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
1124 PM EST WED FEB 17 2016 A COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT SOUTH OF THE REGION THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON. A FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLIDE FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY LIFTING A WARM FRONT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA.
/ISSUED 230 PM CST WED FEB 17 2016/ RIDGE ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPE OF THE ROCKIES WILL PUSH EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS LOW ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST EJECTS RAPIDLY ACROSS THE COUNTRY WITH THE MAIN PUSH OF ENERGY PASSING TO OUR NORTH LATE THURSDAY. AREAS WEST OF A TULIA TO MORTON LINE STAND THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF MAKING THE THREE HOUR REQUIREMENT. THE TROUGH ON THURSDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO DRAG A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH ON FRIDAY UNDER STRONG WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
312 AM CST THU FEB 18 2016 An upper level ridge will push east of the area today and be replaced by a west to southwest flow aloft regime through the weekend.
BEFORE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS EAST INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY USHERING MUCH DRIER AIR ALOFT. WITH SFC RIDGING HAVING SHIFTED E OF THE REGION THIS EVENING.
148 AM MST THU FEB 18 2016 LATEST UPPER AIR DATA INDICATES THE RIDGE SLOWLY MOVING EAST TOWARD THE PLAINS. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE EXPANSE OF CLOUDS WITHIN THE RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE GREAT BASIN. SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE TRI- STATE AREA WERE LIGHT EXCEPT FOR SOME BREEZY WINDS OVER PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL COLORADO TO THE WEST OF THE HIGH CLOUDS. SO HAVE LOWS A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT. THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE STRENGTH OF THE WINDS AND HOW WARM TEMPERATURES WILL BE IS WHAT EFFECT THE HIGH CLOUDS.
RIDGE - ERN U. TROUGH PATTERN WILL TRANSITION TO MORE ZONAL INTO THE WEEKEND. INCREASING ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL PROMOTE A DEEPENING LEE TROUGH TO OUR WEST WITH SOME SEMBLANCE OF THE NW-SE ORIENTED BOUNDARY /MENTIONED ABOVE/ REMAINING INTACT ACROSS OUR AREA. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING WITH COOLER AND POTENTIALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRIDAY.
200 AM EST THU FEB 18 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA TODAY. THE NE FLOW WILL RESULT IN HIGHS TODAY COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. WITH READINGS IN THE LOWER/MID 60S CLOSER TO THE COAST AND UPPER 60S FAR INLAND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THE CAROLINA COAST WITH THE FLOW BECOMING EASTERLY. A BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE REGION. WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.
254 AM CST THU FEB 18 2016 UPPER TROF THAT HAS LINGERED OVER THE ERN CONUS FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS HAS FINALLY MOVED OFFSHORE. UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS TODAY. RIDGE IS FCST TO FLATTEN FRIDAY. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO OUR REGION BUT STALL IN THE ABSENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL PUSH. AS THE TROF LIFTS INTO ERN CANADA.
453 AM EST THU FEB 18 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION LATER TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.
AN EAST/SOUTHEAST WIND DIRECTION IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE DAY AS THE RIDGE NUDGES EASTWARD. 08 HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE AREA THRU THE END OF THE WEEK.
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTHEAST OF OUR REGION WILL DOMINATE TONIGHT. EXPECT DRY WEATHER TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL ACROSS THE REGION. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 30S NE TO THE LOW 40S SW. AS A RESULT OF THIS WARMER SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL THURSDAY NIGHT. WITH WARMER OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING FROM AROUND 40 DEGREES IN THE EAST TO THE LOW 50S IN THE WEST.
1159 PM EST WED FEB 17 2016 MSAS ANALYSES PLACE THE CENTER OF THE POLAR ANTICYCLONE OVER SAGINAW BAY LATE THIS EVENING. OVERRUNNING OF WARMER AND MOIST AIR WILL LEAD TO THE ORGANIZATION OF A WARM FRONT ALOFT AND THICKENING/LOWERING OF HIGH CLOUD BY EVENING. NORTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS HIGH HAS BEEN PRODUCING LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND FLURRIES THIS AFTERNOON. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BEGIN WORKING ITS WAY INTO THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY AS SURFACE FLOW CONTINUES TO VEER AROUND BACKSIDE OF DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE. WARM FRONT WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT LIFTS THROUGH THE AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. WILL STILL CONTINUE A SMALL CHANCE FOR MIX PRECIP ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA AS ANY PRECIP WILL LIKELY GO FROM SNOW TO SLEET TO FREEZING RAIN TO RAIN AS LOW LEVELS QUICKLY WARM OVERNIGHT.
1000 PM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
651 PM CDT Fri Jun 12 2015 The heavy rain threat will be the main forecast challenge through the weekend driven by the combination of a surface boundary in the vicinity and a series of upper level waves rotating through a slow moving upper trough.
1219 AM EDT SAT JUN 13 2015 A WARM CROSSES THE AREA THIS EVENING FOLLOWED QUICKLY BY A COLD FRONT EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN SATURDAY. THE HIGH LINGERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE WE SHOULD SEE SCATTERED STORMS DEVELOP WITH THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES CLOSE TO THE COAST WHERE THE SEA BREEZE COLLISION WILL OCCUR DURING THE MID-AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS EACH DAY.
801 PM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
3 PM OBSERVATIONAL ANALYSIS INDICATED A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT DRAPED ENE-WSW ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST KS INTO NORTHERN/WESTERN OK.
/ISSUED 341 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015/ A RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST U. AND THIS COMBINED WITH A TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL ACT TOGETHER TO INCREASE SOUTHERLY FLOW.
/ISSUED 431 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015/ SFC COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THRU MUCH OF NRN AND WRN SECTIONS AND IS SHOWING SIGNS OF STALLING ACROSS THE ECNTRL AND SERN TX PNHDL.
822 PM MDT FRI JUN 12 2015 ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS LINGERED OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY AT THIS TIME WHILE SKIES WERE GRADUALLY CLEARING ON THE PLAINS. AS THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO PUSH EAST OF THE STATE. EVEN THOUGH WARMER AIR WILL BE ADVECTING IN. BUT LIKELY COOLER OVER THE MOUNTAINS. GENERAL BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN STATES AND OVER THE ROCKIES SATURDAY. ADDITIONAL MOISTURE WILL MOVE IN ON WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON. PALMER DIVIDE AND CHEYENNE RIDGE LATE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES WARMER TOMORROW WITH READINGS NEAR 80 ON THE PLAINS AND IN THE 60S AND LOWER 70S OVER THE MOUNTAINS. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW A TRANSITION OF THE UPPER PATTERN FROM WEAK TROUGHING OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.
ONSHORE SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES IN THE LOWER AND MID LEVELS ALLOWING FOR NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WITH HEATING. RIDGING BEGINS TO CREEP OVER ALABAMA FROM THE EAST IN THE LOWER AND MID LEVELS. THERE IS A DISCREPANCY IN MODEL SOLUTIONS WITH THE GFS TRYING TO BREAK DOWN THE UPPER RIDGE SOONER THAN THE EURO.
INCREASED CLOUD COVER ACROSS NORTH MS GIVEN THE LOW CLOUD DECK REPORTED NEAR TUP. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE/WSR-88D VAD WIND PROFILES THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUES TO PLACE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES AND A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. LATEST SHORT TERM MODEL TRENDS INDICATE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES WILL RETROGRADE WEST SOMEWHAT WITH THE BETTER SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES OCCURRING ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND LESSER CHANCES TOWARDS THE TENNESSEE RIVER. ESPECIALLY AS THE RIDGE MOVES EAST AND A MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS BEGINS TO APPROACH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS WILL BE SIMILAR WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S AND LOWS MOSTLY IN THE LOWER TO PERHAPS MIDDLE 70S.
LOW TEMPS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE IN THE LOW 70S IN MOST LOCATIONS. 05/MA /ISSUED 359 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015/ ONSHORE SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES IN THE LOWER AND MID LEVELS ALLOWING FOR NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WITH HEATING. RIDGING BEGINS TO CREEP OVER ALABAMA FROM THE EAST IN THE LOWER AND MID LEVELS. THERE IS A DISCREPANCY IN MODEL SOLUTIONS WITH THE GFS TRYING TO BREAK DOWN THE UPPER RIDGE SOONER THAN THE EURO.
SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE AGAIN SATURDAY AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES. THE COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE A SLOW SOUTHWARD PUSH THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY BEFORE STALLING ACROSS SOUTHERN PA AND WEAKENING.
753 PM MDT FRI JUN 12 2015 THE FEW SHOWERS THAT DEVELOPED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN SOUTHEAST WYOMING HAVE ALREADY DIE OFF. WILL SEE A DRY START TO SATURDAY WITH A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING FROM WEST TO EAST IN THE AFTERNOON AS A WEAK COLD FRONT SLIPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR WYOMING ZONES IN THE LATE MORNING.
1156 PM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015 SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO OVERNIGHT. AN ATLANTIC RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA TONIGHT. THE HIGH TEMPERATURE IN KEY WEST WAS 94 DEGREES.
HIGH PRESSURE HAS LED TO DRY CONDITIONS TODAY WITH SOME CU OVER MAINLY NORTHEAST MINNESOTA. THIS WAVE ALONG WITH A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL CAUSE CLOUDS TO INCREASE LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN OFF LAKE SATURDAY KEEPING THOSE AREAS COOLER.
/ISSUED 317 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015/ UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY ROTATING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A SECONDARY UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND KEEP NORTH TEXAS IN UNSETTLED SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE HIGH RES MODELS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THIS SOLUTION SO WE WILL KEEP CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES TONIGHT.
WIDESPREAD MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR 06-18Z WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF OCCURRENCE NEAR KWWR AND KGAG.
731 PM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA TONIGHT.
851 PM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA TONIGHT.
A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE LOOKS TO REMAIN PARKED OVER THE SE CONUS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. CONVEYOR BELT OF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE.
936 PM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015 A WARM CROSSES THE AREA THIS EVENING FOLLOWED QUICKLY BY A COLD FRONT EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN SATURDAY. THE HIGH LINGERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
BERMUDA RIDGE SURFACE AND ALOFT EXTENDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN U.
808 PM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015 SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE AREAS WEATHER WITH DRY CONDITIONS. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH THAT TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENTS HAD MOVED EAST AND THE WINDS ACROSS THE TWO STATE AREA HAD DECREASED.
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 71 91 71 92 / 20 20 10 20 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 70 90 71 91 / 20 30 10 20 OAK RIDGE, TN 70 89 70 90 / 20 30 20 20 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 66 87 66 88 / 20 30 20 40.
At the surface, the cold front has stalled out over south central to southeast Kansas today, with regional radar showing storms popping up along this boundary in far southeast Kansas by mid afternoon. The best focus for precipitation seems to be across east central to far northeast Kansas tonight through Saturday as the stationary boundary begins to slowly lift northward into the area through the day, so have focused the higher QPF over that area.
SHOWER AND STORM CHANCE WILL INCREASE AGAIN SATURDAY AS A WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THE ACTIVITY IS RIGHT ALONG A WEAK COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE A SLOW SOUTHWARD PUSH THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY BEFORE STALLING ACROSS SOUTHERN PA AND WEAKENING.
625 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015 HIGH PRESSURE HAS LED TO DRY CONDITIONS TODAY WITH SOME CU OVER MAINLY NORTHEAST MINNESOTA. THIS WAVE ALONG WITH A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL CAUSE CLOUDS TO INCREASE LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN OFF LAKE SATURDAY KEEPING THOSE AREAS COOLER.
DRY AND COOLER TONIGHT ACROSS SE OREGON AND SW IDAHO WITH LOW TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL. BROAD UPPER TROUGH SAGGING SOUTH OVER THE NWRN U.
LOW TEMPS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE IN THE LOW 70S IN MOST LOCATIONS.
LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. BUT WARMER ALONG THE TREASURE COAST BEACHES.
610 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015 MID AFTERNOON RADAR AND SAT IMAGERY INDICATES AN MCV OVER NORTHEAST KS ROTATING TO THE NORTHEAST WITH A NEARLY CUT-OFF LOW FARTHER UPSTREAM IN SOUTHWEST KS.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE GULF OF MEXICO IS HELPING TO CHANNEL A DEEP MOIST AIRMASS (PRECIPITABLE WATER ~ TWO INCHES) NORTHWARD INTO THE ARKLAMISS REGION. EXPECT GREATER INSTABILITY/MOISTURE TO BECOME FIXED OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE ARKLAMISS AS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS RIDGE INTENSIFIES AND EXPANDS WESTWARD INTO EASTERN MS.
Aloft upper level ridging will continue through Saturday night. A cold front will slowly move southward across Indiana tonight but looks to stall north of the region as it runs into the ridge. These storms are more under the influence of the upper level ridge and are not expected to become too strong, though they will produce some brief heavy rain. Further to the north another area of storms across southern IN could become a bit stronger as they are closer to the surface boundary and further from the ridge. Temperatures will remain warm with lows in the lower to mid 70s.
1116 PM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015 AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF TO OUR EAST OVERNIGHT DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. A COOLER. MORE SEASONABLE AND LESS HUMID AIRMASS WILL BE USHERED BACK INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT.
525 PM CST FRI DEC 25 2015 A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE REGION WILL ALLOW FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS MLU/ELD TERMINALS THIS EVENING.
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE FL COAST WILL KEEP WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH SEAS INCREASING FROM 2 FEET NEARSHORE TO 5 FEET AT THE FURTHEST OFFSHORE POINTS.
MODELS /WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE SREF/ ARE GENERALLY IN LINE WITH A FORECAST TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW NORTHEAST ACROSS TEXAS THROUGH SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
640 PM EST FRI DEC 25 2015 HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE ATLANTIC WILL MAINTAIN UNSEASONABLE WARM WEATHER IN THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL PERSIST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND MAINTAINING A WARM AND HUMID SOUTHERLY FLOW.
AS THE SECOND TROUGH DIGS SOUTH TO SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO BY LATE SAT AFTERNOON. CLOUDS AND PRECIP WILL CONTINUE LONGEST OVER SW CO AND SE UTAH WHICH WILL BE CLOSER TO THE LOW CIRCULATION. GUIDANCE NUMBERS SHOWED A LARGE SPREAD BUT LOOKS OBVIOUS THAT THE LOWEST. THE ICY COLD WILL CONTINUE A FEW MORE DAYS AS CLEAR SKIES AT NIGHT FROM HIGH PRESSURE AND SNOW COVER WILL PRODUCE STRONG INVERSIONS. SHOULD SEE AN INVERTED TEMP PROFILE WITH THE COLDEST LOW AND HIGH TEMPS IN THE VALLEY BOTTOMS AND WARMER CONDITIONS IN THE MOUNTAINS ABOVE THE INVERSIONS. BY MON EVENING A RIDGE WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA AND A SPLITTING TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT BASIN. NW OROGRAPHICS AND BETTER COLD ADVECTION WILL PRODUCE MORE PRECIP/SNOW OVER THE AREA WED FOLLOWING THE SECOND TROUGH PASSAGE.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND GENERALLY LIGHT OFFSHORE WINDS TONIGHT ALONG WITH A COLD AIRMASS ALREADY IN PLACE WILL RESULT IN WIDE SPREAD FREEZING TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE CITY OF SAN FRANCISCO.
THE WINDS ARE REFLECTIVE OF THE SURFACE AND UPPER RIDGES TO THE EAST WITH A SOUTHEAST FLOW UP TO 850 AND SOUTH BECOMING SOUTHWEST ABOVE. CURRENT OBSERVATIONS SHOW A LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 70S AND DEWPOINTS AROUND 70. WITH WARM GULF WATER TEMPERATURES NEAR 70 AROUND THE TAMPA BAY AREA AND ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLER TO THE NORTH. RIDGING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW.
A COLD UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE AREA WILL BRING VERY COLD OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES FOR TONIGHT.
640 PM EST FRI DEC 25 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND CREST OVER THE AREA ON SATURDAY.
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP QUICKLY ACROSS THE STATE SATURDAY BRING VERY STRONG NORTH WINDS. MODELS /WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE SREF/ ARE GENERALLY IN LINE WITH A FORECAST TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW NORTHEAST ACROSS TEXAS THROUGH SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
849 PM EST FRI DEC 25 2015 A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP MILD AIR NORTH INTO PENNSYLVANIA.
WARM AND MOIST AIR WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS A RELATIVELY "COOLER" SURFACE AIR MASS WITH ENHANCEMENT FROM NORTHEASTWARD MOVING DISTURBANCES IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. CONDITIONS WILL BE BETTER AROUND TYS AND TRI WITH A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE LOW LEVEL FLOW KEEPING SHOWERS LIGHT IN INTENSITY WITH HIGHER CEILINGS.
1008 PM EST FRI DEC 25 2015 HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE ATLANTIC WILL MAINTAIN UNSEASONABLE WARM WEATHER IN THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THIS BAND OF CONVECTION IS STILL ONGOING AND SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH MID EVENING BEFORE BREAKING UP AS THE LOW LEVEL JET FEEDING THIS CONVECTION WEAKENS AND SHIFT EASTWARD. ANTICIPATE THE SURFACE WARM FRONT TO MAKE A PUSH BACK TO THE NORTH AS THE LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN U. THIS LOW LEVEL FLOW AND STRENGTHENING MOISTURE ADVECTION OVER THE WARM FRONT SHOULD SUPPORT REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND MAINLY ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT. UPPER RIDGING WILL KEEP WARM AND HUMID WEATHER IN PLACE OVER ALL BUT THE NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. A STRONG UPPER LOW WILL EJECT NORTHEAST FROM TEXAS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. CONDS ARE GENERALLY IFR THOUGH THERE SHOULD BE SOME IMPROVEMENT LATER TONIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT PUSHES NORTH AND SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE. PRECIP WILL END AS WARM FRONT SURGES NORTH OF THE AREA.
AND QUITE STRONG RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE ATLANTIC SOUTH OF BERMUDA. THE AXIS OF THIS RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. DUE TO THE IMPACT OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AROUND THE RIDGE. THE RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL REMAIN THE FOCUS OF THE FORECAST.
LONG WAVE TROUGH SHIFTS SLOWLY EAST. CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 63 74 63 73 / 80 40 20 40 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 61 74 61 72 / 80 40 20 30 OAK RIDGE, TN 61 74 61 73 / 80 50 20 30 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 56 73 56 71 / 80 50 20 20 NC.
THE PRIMARY CHALLENGES ARE COLD TEMPERATURES SATURDAY MORNING AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS AND FREEZING FOG IN THE VALLEYS.
UPDATED 2329Z A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN U. LOCAL MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP AT MANY TERMINALS OVERNIGHT AS SOME FREEZING FOG DEVELOPS MOSTLY AFTER 09Z.
1026 PM EST FRI DEC 25 2015 A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP MILD AIR NORTH INTO PENNSYLVANIA.
958 PM EST FRI DEC 25 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND CREST OVER THE AREA ON SATURDAY.
THIS BAND OF CONVECTION IS STILL ONGOING AND SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH MID EVENING BEFORE BREAKING UP AS THE LOW LEVEL JET FEEDING THIS CONVECTION WEAKENS AND SHIFT EASTWARD. ANTICIPATE THE SURFACE WARM FRONT TO MAKE A PUSH BACK TO THE NORTH AS THE LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN U. THIS LOW LEVEL FLOW AND STRENGTHENING MOISTURE ADVECTION OVER THE WARM FRONT SHOULD SUPPORT REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND MAINLY ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT. UPPER RIDGING WILL KEEP WARM AND HUMID WEATHER IN PLACE OVER ALL BUT THE NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. A STRONG UPPER LOW WILL EJECT NORTHEAST FROM TEXAS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. SURFACE WARM FRONT SHOULD RETURN NORTH TO JUST SOUTH OF AN MEM/MKL LINE BY 00Z.
554 PM EST FRI DEC 25 2015 HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE ATLANTIC WILL MAINTAIN UNSEASONABLE WARM WEATHER IN THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
DENSE FOG HAS BECOME EXTENSIVE ENOUGH IN THE LOWER TREASURE VALLEY THAT WE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THAT AREA.
The second concern is a strong cold front that will move through the area on Saturday, reaching CNM and HOB around 15Z, and moving through W TX TAF sites during the afternoon with winds veering to the N/NE and becoming gusty in its wake. /issued 229 PM CST FRI DEC 25 2015/ Strong upper trough over the SW US will cutoff with the low moving along the US/Mex border and then swinging across the area. Once this low swings northeast out of TX another upper trough will quickly follow it down into the area.
ENERGY FROM THE SOUTHWEST IS INTERACTING MORE VIGOROUSLY WITH THE LOW LEVEL COLD AIR LATE THIS AFTERNOON RESULTING IN INCREASING RADAR RETURNS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL MONTANA.
542 PM CST FRI DEC 25 2015 The quiet weather over Christmas Day will begin to transition to more active weather as a significant trough begins to dig into the Desert Southwest overnight. This trough will translate into the Southern Plains before ejecting northward towards the Mississippi River Basin and Great Lakes region. If the system can pull in colder air, the NW portion of the CWA could see several inches of snow, however, If the temperature profile remains warm in the mid-levels but a shallow layer of cold air works in at the surface then freezing rain could pose issues.