Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Gilchrist Previous discussion: Stacked low pressure system will be moving across southern Saskatchewan into Manitoba today. Showers rotating around the back of the low will slide south and east through the day. As the low moves off to the east, winds will diminish and skies clear overnight. Temperatures will warm from Thursday into the weekend as an upper ridge builds across the region.
The forecast is looking hot and dry as South Texas is under the influence of subsidence as a ridge builds into the area. Temperatures this afternoon are progged to reach the low 90s along the Coastal Bend and mid 90s from the inland Coastal Bend to near 100 for the Brush Country. Tomorrow will be similar but a few degrees warmer as subsidence promotes heating.
Moving into Thursday, the low pressure over Saskatchewan will track east, eventually pushing into Ontario.
Otherwise light winds will maintain as high pressure continues to dominate the weather pattern. Otherwise, we remain on the western fringe of high pressure located over the eastern Gulf which will keep majority of the region dry and hot. There is a slight chance for shower activity over the lower Atchafalaya Basin during max heating this afternoon.
Otherwise, we remain on the western fringe of high pressure located over the eastern Gulf which will keep majority of the region dry and hot. There is a slight chance for shower activity over the lower Atchafalaya Basin during max heating this afternoon.
131 PM EDT Wed Jun 15 2022 High pressure will extend down from the north today and Thursday with temperatures closer to normal, but still very warm.
Currently, upper trough axis responsible for last night's precipitation has pushed through the area, with clear skies in its wake. The aforementioned trough axis will continue to translate northeast through tomorrow, with upper ridging quickly beginning to amplify across the Plains. That said, the warmest air aloft will remain off to the south of the area tomorrow, in closer proximity to the ridge axis.
TONIGHT: Afternoon sfc analysis depicts low pressure area and attendant front bisecting IA and translating rapidly eastward. Warm sector temperatures have warmed into the upper 80s/low 90s and when combined with sfc dew points in the low 70s has yielded uncapped SBCAPES of 3000-3500 j/kg per latest SPC mesoanlysis.
Our weather continues to be stuck on repeat as the forecast area remains firmly under the grip of the large 595dm upper ridge. The center of the ridge remains across the Tennessee Valley today but its effects are felt across the entire Southeast back toward Texas. /28/ Prior discussion below: Upper level ridging remains in control and most areas will remain hot, humid, and dry through tonight.
SHORT TERM (Tonight through Thursday Night):Trough positioned over central Texas finally begins to lift northward taking the cloud cover with it. However, partly cloudy conditions return tonight keeping the low temperatures in the mid 70s and winds become light. The ridge over the eastern United States begins to strengthen tomorrow allowing for subsidence to build over Deep South Texas.
(This evening through Thursday) A weak upper level low can be seen spinning over the southern half of our CWA this afternoon. This low has given the area some slight relief for the southern half of the area from the intense heat we've dealt with over the past week or so by providing lower heights and some scattered cloud cover, although it will not likely result in any precipitation for the area. For tonight, lows should be a few degrees cooler than this morning, dropping into the low to mid 70s in most locations. For Thursday, the weak upper low/trough is expected to drift west/northwest, likely resulting in highs back into the mid 90s to around 100 degrees area-wide, with southerly winds at 10 to 20 mph.
Partly cloudy and hazy skies will follow, with highs in the mid to upper 90s, as upper ridging remains over the area. There could be some showers and thunderstorms across the Northeast and Central Louisiana tomorrow afternoon, as easterly winds along the southern periphery of the upper ridge may allow some convection to move into those zones.
Upper level ridging expected to crest overhead this afternoon and evening, accompanied by very warm mid level winds and a rather strong capping inversion with 700 mb temps in the +10-12C range. This mid level cap could be broken via elevated heat sources of the higher ridges, and pockets of CAPE up to around 2500 J/kg. A cold front is expected to move into the region from the Northwest to the Southeast tomorrow during the late afternoon hours. Storms will refire in earnest and will readily tap the higher instability (MUCAPE values may exceed 3000 J/kg in some places) and strong deep-layer shear (45 to 55 kts) to bring the potential for a significant widespread severe outbreak.
Upper ridge which has keep the forecast area very hot over the past couple of days shift starts to be suppressed to the south and west in response to a potent upper low sweeping across the Upper Midwest. While heat index values will reach into the lower 90s, did decide to include both Allen and Whitley Counties in Indiana into the advisory given continued power outages, and clean up efforts.
High pressure has begun to build over western Montana and central Idaho, bringing a needed respite from precipitation, particularly across northwest Montana. Lingering low and mid level moisture has kept a deck of clouds hanging around northwest Montana, but this should dissipate as the high pressure ridge strengthens and drier air moves into the region.
Gusty south winds this evening should begin to ease during the overnight hours, although some gusty winds may continue over the higher terrain of the Hill Country.
253 PM EDT Wed Jun 15 2022 High pressure moves off the New England coast Thursday. Low pressure tracks across eastern Canada late in the week.
Slight chance of an isolated thunderstorm Thursday afternoon, mainly across the higher elevations and northeast Tennessee/southwest Virginia. Discussion: Upper 500mb 596 dam ridge is centered across the forecast area today and tonight. This upper ridge should slowly begin to retrograde westward on Thursday afternoon. The NAM shows the 159 to 160 dam low-level ridge remaining centered over the area, especially southern portions of the forecast area, with 850mb temperatures around 22C to 23C. Thunderstorm coverage is forecast to be isolated and mainly tied to the higher elevations with the upper ridge and very warm air directly over the forecast area. Daily Record High Maximum Temperatures Date Chattanooga Knoxville Tri-Cities Oak Ridge 06-16 99(1936) 98(1936) 94(2015) 96(2018) JB.
Do believe a threat for occasional gusts to 60 MPH will remain possible until at least 00z, when flow aloft should rapidly weaken in response to a building upper-level ridge. Trending warmer & drier for Thursday as upper-level ridging gains control and 700 mb temperatures climb to +14 to +16 deg C.
237 PM MDT Wed Jun 15 2022 Strong low pressure centered over southeast Saskatchewan will lift into Manitoba tonight allowing the current strong winds and shower activity to taper off through the evening hours. Thursday will begin a warming and drying trend as upper ridging rebounds into the Treasure State.
300 PM MDT Wed Jun 15 2022 Current surface analysis shows low pressure over southeast SK, with tight pressure gradient stretching across much of MT, ND, and into parts of northern SD. Upper level analysis shows low pressure over southwest MB, drifting to the east-northeast. A fairly quiet pattern and a warming trend will take place late this week, with hot conditions by the weekend, as a strong ridge of high pressure builds over the plains.
Visibile imagery reveals thickening congestus near the Lower Keys, and also a southward moving outflow from a line of storms across the Gulf side waters. Chances for thundery rains are higher for the Lower Keys. High pressure over Florida and the western North Atlantic will maintain gentle to moderate east to southeasterly breezes through the rest of the work week.
An upper level ridge covers much of the eastern U. This ridge will start to shift slowly to the west tonight but will remain east of the region. Temperatures will remain above normal tonight with lows Thursday morning in the low to mid 70s. On Thursday, the ridge will continue to shift to the west.
345 PM EDT Wed Jun 15 2022 High pressure will extend down from the north Thursday with temperatures closer to normal, but still very warm.
(This afternoon through Thursday night) A large upper level ridge is setup across the southeast US, with an inverted trough moving along its southwestern periphery which will be the main weather influencer for our area through tomorrow as it works its way through. This inverted trough will serve to limit high temperatures some due to slightly cooler air aloft and decreased thickness. Increased lift with the presence of this trough may allow for isolated to scattered thunderstorms across the Davis through the Guadalupe Mountains and surrounding foothills this afternoon and early evening. The main axis of the inverted trough will pass overhead around 15z tomorrow. Scattered afternoon thunderstorms will be possible once again from the Davis Mountains and surrounding foothills through the Guadalupe Mountains but with the presence of the trough overhead, storm chances look to be a little greater than today's.
1251 PM CDT Wed Jun 15 2022 (Today and tonight) Much of west Texas will remain between two upper-level features today: A trough over the northern high plains and a ridge over the southeast US. By this evening, the trough will shift northeastward into central Canada, which will allow the ridge to start building back westward across the southern plains overnight.
1135 AM MDT Wed Jun 15 2022 The upper low spins over southern Saskatchewan, and its trough digs into the northern Rockies and plains. As the low pressure system shifts east today, a tight pressure gradient will result in strong winds across northwestern SD. Highs today will range from the lower 70s across northwestern SD to the lower 80s across southern SD. Upper ridging then builds over the central states, resulting in warmer and drier conditions.
(Through tonight ) High clouds emanating from an upper low over southern TX on the western side of a broad mid level ridge have held temps back a bit today. At the surface, a weak cold front stretches from Lake Superior southwest to the TX Panhandle. Lacy (Tomorrow through Wednesday) Aforementioned mid level ridge builds overhead Thursday.
High pressure stretching from the Mid-Atlantic to the Southern Central Plains persists, keeping the weather pattern we have seen over the last few days relatively the same. Otherwise, temperatures should be a few degrees warmer tomorrow and reach the upper 90s for inland locations and lower 90s near the coast.
High pressure will bring dry weather today. A chance of showers will return tonight and Thursday as an upper trough approaches from the west.
(This evening through Thursday) An upper level ridge remains firmly located over southeastern United States with above average temperatures continuing Wednesday into Thursday. The upper level high shifts westward over the region Thursday, which will result in continued dry conditions.
An upper and surface ridging will keep winds less than 10kts outside of convection. Chattanooga Airport, TN 75 98 76 97 74 / 10 20 20 30 20 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 73 96 75 93 71 / 10 20 20 40 20 Oak Ridge, TN 73 97 74 93 69 / 20 30 20 40 20 Tri Cities Airport, TN 69 94 71 89 64 / 10 30 30 40 20 TN.
Current surface analysis shows low pressure over southeast SK, with tight pressure gradient stretching across much of MT, ND, and into parts of northern SD. Upper level analysis shows low pressure over southwest MB, drifting to the east-northeast. A fairly quiet pattern and a warming trend will take place late this week, with hot conditions by the weekend, as a strong ridge of high pressure builds over the plains.
932 PM EDT Wed Jun 15 2022 High pressure moves off the New England coast Thursday. Low pressure tracks across eastern Canada late in the week.
Cold front moving through central Iowa at 3 PM. Otherwise, despite high freezing levels over 15kft agl per 19z DVN raob, large hail is a threat with strengthening deep layer shear and any discrete cells with supercell characteristics. Cold front will continue to progress through the area and exit the southeast overnight.
Slightly weaker winds will be on tap tonight and Thursday with high pressure spreading over the area. /issued 247 PM CDT Wed Jun 15 2022/ SHORT TERM (Tonight through Thursday Night):Trough positioned over central Texas finally begins to lift northward taking the cloud cover with it. However, partly cloudy conditions return tonight keeping the low temperatures in the mid 70s and winds become light. The ridge over the eastern United States begins to strengthen tomorrow allowing for subsidence to build over Deep South Texas.
Temperatures should only fall into the low to mid 70s by tomorrow morning.
725 PM EDT Wed Jun 15 2022 A weak cold front will dissipate over the area this evening. Hot and dry high pressure will then prevail into late week before a cold front impacts the region early in the weekend. High pressure will return thereafter. High pressure will extend across the area on Thursday. Large scale subsidence under the upper ridge will limit most daytime convection. Low temperatures will mainly be in the low to mid 70s.
613 PM CDT Wed Jun 15 2022 (This evening through Thursday) An upper level ridge remains firmly located over southeastern United States with above average temperatures continuing Wednesday into Thursday. The upper level high shifts westward over the region Thursday, which will result in continued dry conditions.
Upper level ridging can be expected to return by Thursday, with a return to hot and mainly dry weather. Later tonight, this front will return north as a warm front. There is a very small chance of thunderstorms north of the advancing warm front in central Kansas around Hays after 3 am. Upper level ridging and day after day of south winds will lead to an extended heat wave lasting through 26 June and possibly through the remainder of June. Dewpoints will be low along with the deep vertical mixing under the ridge (in the absence of the elevated mixed layer on the southern edge of the westerlies). Otherwise, expect a return to south winds as the cold front retreats back north as a warm front increasing winds up to 25kts after 16Z with daytime heating through the end of the period.
High pressure to the north will continues to induce an east- northeasterly flow over the next few days across the FL peninsula. Given a likely later convective initiation once again tomorrow, temperatures are expected to climb into the low to mid 90's with heat indices near 110 degrees in many areas, prompting a heat advisory for much of the area.
711 PM EDT Wed Jun 15 2022 High pressure moves off the New England coast Thursday. Low pressure tracks across eastern Canada late in the week.
A few high clouds and possible light rain are noted on our side of the Cascades as of the afternoon update, with precipitation expected by the evening from an approaching upper low. A thermal trough is also noted across the region, which is helping to influence the pressure gradient in addition to the aforementioned approaching upper low, with a few breezier winds ongoing in the Grande Ronde Valley.
1031 PM EDT Wed Jun 15 2022 A weak cold front will dissipate over the area this evening. Hot and dry high pressure will then prevail into late week before a cold front impacts the region early in the weekend. High pressure will return thereafter. High pressure will extend across the area on Thursday. Large scale subsidence under the upper ridge will limit most daytime convection. Low temperatures will mainly be in the low to mid 70s.
909 PM EDT Wed Jun 15 2022 Warm, humid weather is expected through Thursday, but thunderstorm chance will be on the increase with the encroachment of a cold front. There remains a slight chance over the higher elevations given converged flow/lower free convection levels, so that small mention was maintained through the night.
An anomalous upper level ridge has successfully suppressed convection so far this evening. There should be a lull in convective activity Thursday morning into early afternoon, then falling heights ahead of approaching cold front combined with heating of moist/unstable airmass should result in another round of potentially severe thunderstorms during the PM hours.
/22/ Upper ridging will continue over our region over the next 24 hours. The upper ridge will continue across the region tomorrow. Temperatures will once again be in the mid 90s, with the highest temperatures likely occurring in the northern part of the forecast area. A weakness in the southern part of the ridge, along with any residual boundary that may be across the region from the overnight MCS, and daytime heating will bring potential for showers and storms to develop tomorrow. /28/ By Thursday night, deep layer ridging with a high pressure near the Appalachian Mountains will begin to shift to the west.
602 PM CDT Wed Jun 15 2022 (This evening through Thursday) A weak upper level low can be seen spinning over the southern half of our CWA this afternoon. This low has given the area some slight relief for the southern half of the area from the intense heat we've dealt with over the past week or so by providing lower heights and some scattered cloud cover, although it will not likely result in any precipitation for the area. For tonight, lows should be a few degrees cooler than this morning, dropping into the low to mid 70s in most locations. For Thursday, the weak upper low/trough is expected to drift west/northwest, likely resulting in highs back into the mid 90s to around 100 degrees area-wide, with southerly winds at 10 to 20 mph.
Thursday night will be the next shot at storms, and also severe weather as a warm front lifts north.
710 PM EDT Wed Jun 15 2022 Hot and humid weather will persist into Thursday as high pressure pushes southeast. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to accompany a cold front later on Thursday. High pressure following the front is forecast to bring dry and cooler conditions for the weekend. Highs will be about 3-4 degrees cooler than what is seen today, low to mid 90s versus mid to upper 90s. Another cold front will cross the region overnight Thursday, which will be the one that signals the very welcome airmass change over the region.
530 PM MDT Wed Jun 15 2022 Weak ridging continues to build in over the CWA this afternoon bringing clear skies to the region. Thursday, high pressure to our east and an approaching trough from the west will cause southwesterly flow to set up across our area.
855 PM EDT Wed Jun 15 2022 High pressure will extend down from the north Thursday with temperatures closer to normal, but still very warm.
/NEW/ /Tonight and Tomorrow/ An upper low currently centered near Brownwood will slowly move north along our CWA border tonight before getting sheared apart over Western North Texas tomorrow afternoon. Tomorrow, the filling upper low should keep most of the dense cloud cover outside of our forecast area during daylight hours, resulting in stronger insolation. Heat index values will be in the low 100s, but unlike the past two days, the winds will only be around 10 mph with a few gusts to 20 mph or so.
626 PM CDT Wed Jun 15 2022 Broad troughiness to the north will gradually shift east through tomorrow. Temperatures tonight will be cooler but with some wind in place not expecting any stronger radiational cooling, so mostly mid 50s for lows.
The southerly to southeasterly flow around a deep trough of low pressure to our west and high pressure centered over the central United States supported this influx in deeper moisture.
Low temperatures in the M-U70s overnight, potentially L70s for normally cooler rural locations.
An upper trough will continue to move east tonight and Wednesday. Drier air will move into the region under the building upper ridge on Thursday. With drier air, decent mixing most of the day, and few clouds went toward the higher end for max Ts.
544 PM CDT Wed Jun 15 2022 (Through tonight ) High clouds emanating from an upper low over southern TX on the western side of a broad mid level ridge have held temps back a bit today. At the surface, a weak cold front stretches from Lake Superior southwest to the TX Panhandle. Lacy (Tomorrow through Wednesday) Aforementioned mid level ridge builds overhead Thursday.
405 PM CDT Wed Jun 15 2022 Cold front moving through central Iowa at 3 PM. Otherwise, despite high freezing levels over 15kft agl per 19z DVN raob, large hail is a threat with strengthening deep layer shear and any discrete cells with supercell characteristics. Cold front will continue to progress through the area and exit the southeast overnight.
455 PM MDT Wed Jun 15 2022 Current surface analysis shows low pressure over southeast SK, with tight pressure gradient stretching across much of MT, ND, and into parts of northern SD. Upper level analysis shows low pressure over southwest MB, drifting to the east-northeast. A fairly quiet pattern and a warming trend will take place late this week, with hot conditions by the weekend, as a strong ridge of high pressure builds over the plains.
818 PM EDT Wed Jun 15 2022 Hot and humid weather will persist into Thursday as high pressure pushes southeast. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to accompany a cold front later on Thursday. High pressure following the front is forecast to bring dry and cooler conditions for the weekend. Skies have become mostly clear, though some increase in mid and high clouds will be possible later tonight as moisture aloft increases from the northwest well ahead of a cold front. Highs will be about 3-4 degrees cooler than what is seen today, low to mid 90s versus mid to upper 90s. Another cold front will cross the region overnight Thursday, which will be the one that signals the very welcome airmass change over the region.
643 PM CDT Wed Jun 15 2022 The current upper trough over the Central and Northern Plains will continue to shift north and east away from our region. Ridging quickly builds back in by Thursday and heat returns.
A late day cold front will bring showers and storms to the region. However, latest thickness pattern indicates that the MCS should stay pretty far east and we are smack dab under an impressive ridge and there is plenty of warm air aloft. A limiting factor will be the very warm air aloft, since the storm development will be ahead of the cold front. Dry, cooler air will filter into the region Friday in the wake of the cold frontal and upper trough passage.
Forecast Discussion: At 19Z, a cold front was slowly progressing eastward through northeast Kansas, and was located near a line from Seneca to Manhattan to Abilene. A cumulus field was evident on visible satellite ahead of the boundary, and temperatures were noticeably cooler west of the front. An upper level ridge builds over the central US on Friday and is expected to remain in place through the weekend.
1119 PM MDT Wed Jun 15 2022 Weak ridging continues to build in over the CWA this afternoon bringing clear skies to the region. Thursday, high pressure to our east and an approaching trough from the west will cause southwesterly flow to set up across our area. Triple digits look to return to the lower SE UT valleys and the Grand Valley will also flirt with near 100F temperatures. A deepening area of low pressure off the Pacific Coast with a strong high centered over the Lower Mississippi Valley will drive warm, moist, southerly flow from the Tropical Pacific and Gulf of California northward.
345 AM EDT Thu Jun 16 2022 Discussion/Marine - Storms moving out then clearing The cold front is moving across lower Michigan as I write this early this morning. The air behind this front has dew points about 10 degrees lower than what we had for the past 2 days and air temperature will be 5 to 10 degrees cooler than yesterday.