Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
The much ballyhooed cold front just reached Clarksville, and will continue its joyous journey across the Mid State today. The wind shift of the cold front that will sweep through the terminals today is already knocking at the door of CKV. Winds will veer to the northwest and eventually north behind the cold front and increase to around 10 kts before relaxing below 5 kts after 05/00z.
445 AM CDT Fri Sep 4 2020 Latest surface analysis is showing that the surface front has moved into southern Missouri with high pressure centered over eastern Nebraska. Highs today will be cooler behind the front, but then warm back up tomorrow in warm aid advection on the back side of the high.
Temperatures will be a bit warmer with highs into the 70s to low 80s for much of the area as modest low-level warm advection kicks in. A weak trough of low pressure will cross the area tonight with an area of focused mid-level frontogenesis/warm advection expected to increase across central WI overnight.
Western North Atlantic mid level ridging will stretch west across the Southeast United States, extending into the northern Gulf. Broad high pressure will dominate at the surface.
Afternoon temperatures will reach the low 90s along the coast and mid 90s inland. Deep layer ridging across the region providing additional subsidence. Low-level ridge axis will slide a bit south to across the south-central FL peninsula.
A weak trough or wind shift line will push through the area this afternoon and transition our winds from south-southwest to northwest. A warming trend in temps starts today with highs in the low to mid 80s. Much warmer readings are expected for some areas of the CWA on Saturday with mid to upper 90s in our far southwest. An upper-level ridge across the Desert Southwest and upper- level low across the Hudson Bay area will persist Saturday evening, leading to continued northwest flow aloft across the Northern High Plains.
447 AM CDT Fri Sep 4 2020 Today will start out dry, as we remain upstream of a trough. Expect skies to clear out tonight, with temps dropping to the low to mid 40s. The trend of quiet weather continues into Saturday, as high pressure builds over the area. With the trough downstream of the CWA moving further east on Saturday, highs will be slightly warmer with temps in the upper 60s to low 70s. The next chance for precip in the short term comes late Saturday night, as low pressure approaches the area from the southwest along with another low pressure to the northwest of the area.
High pressure continues to ridge over northern Florida keeping a light east-southeast flow over the region this morning, which will allow for the sea breeze to set up over the west coast this afternoon. The highs today will top out in the mid 90's, which is 3-5 degrees above average. High pressure ridging across northern Florida will produce light northeast through southeast winds 10 knots of less across the gulf waters through the weekend.
Dangerous conditions due to heat exposure are likely in the lower elevations through the Labor Day weekend.
711 AM CDT Fri Sep 4 2020 Today will start out dry, as we remain upstream of a trough. Expect skies to clear out tonight, with temps dropping to the low to mid 40s. The trend of quiet weather continues into Saturday, as high pressure builds over the area. With the trough downstream of the CWA moving further east on Saturday, highs will be slightly warmer with temps in the upper 60s to low 70s. The next chance for precip in the short term comes late Saturday night, as low pressure approaches the area from the southwest along with another low pressure to the northwest of the area.
609 AM EDT Fri Sep 4 2020 Dry and hot conditions expected today with an upper level ridge over the area. A cold front will move south through the area tonight and become stationary south of the area.
541 AM CDT Fri Sep 4 2020 Latest surface analysis is showing that the surface front has moved into southern Missouri with high pressure centered over eastern Nebraska. Highs today will be cooler behind the front, but then warm back up tomorrow in warm aid advection on the back side of the high.
With the upper level ridging still in place over the southeastern CONUS and the given thermal profile.
Convection will be mainly suppressed today with upper ridging in place with isolated convection confined to south of I-10 across the big bend this afternoon. Deep layer ridging will prevail through the period, with dry air in place across much of the region.
401 AM CDT Fri Sep 4 2020 Following several weeks of dewpoints in the 70s (upper 70s on occasion), a brief respite is on way to the Midsouth, courtesy of a later summer cold frontal passage later today. This morning's upper air analysis and GOES water vapor imagery showed a broad longwave trof over the upper Midwest. This feature separated two lobes of of subtropical high pressure - a 596dm 500mb height ridge centered over the Great Basin, and the other, a 594dm 500mb height ridge over northern FL/southern GA. The moist shear axis will be displaced to the south today, in response to upstream height falls into the base of the upper Midwest trof. These storms may be aided by surface moisture convergence along a southward- advancing cold front.
530 AM EDT Fri Sep 4 2020 Dry and less humid weather is expected through the weekend as high pressure builds behind the passage of a cold front this morning. A band of clouds should continue to track SE across the region this morning with a crossing cold front. A clearing trend is expected after the passage of the front as high pressure builds under a broad upper trough. Dry weather is expected through the period as high pressure moves east across the Upper Ohio Valley region, under a persistent broad upper trough. Model ensembles indicate an upper high should retrograde across much of the Eastern CONUS through mid week, as a deepening trough develops across the Central CONUS. This should maintain generally dry and warmer weather across the Upper Ohio Valley region.
/issued 306 AM EDT Fri Sep 4 2020/ The ridge axis continues to slowly push north leaving most of the area in easterly flow.
A deep layered western Atlantic ridge axis extending across the Florida Peninsula and into the Gulf of Mexico will slowly weaken and retrograde westward over the next couple of days.
538 AM CDT Fri Sep 4 2020 As of 08Z Friday morning a stout midlevel ridge continues to dominate the western third of the US, while troughing continues across the eastern two-thirds. Surface ridging will slowly progress eastward today, yielding mostly sunny skies and dry conditions. The aforementioned western ridge axis will regress westward, allowing a more-active pattern to setup across the forecast area.
/issued 309 AM CDT Fri Sep 4 2020/ Short term forecast is quiet as upper level high pressure remains anchored to our west. Temperatures today should be similar to slightly below what we saw yesterday with most areas in the lower 90's. Warmer temperatures aloft this afternoon will keep the atmosphere capped therefore no rain chances. /WCI The Labor Day weekend will be dominated by the very strong Four- Corners upper level high pressure ridge, with an axis across the Texas Panhandle and South Plains.
Otherwise, a weak cold front will continue to push south and stall near I-40.
Cold front currently extending from the great lakes down into OK is on the move, and is expected to cross the mid-state late this morning/early afternoon. By mid-week, a fairly good upper jet looks to carve out an upper low across the western US, which will remain west of the Mississippi well into late week. The wind shift of the cold front that will sweep through the terminals today is already knocking at the door of CKV. Winds will veer to the northwest and eventually north behind the cold front and increase to around 10 kts before relaxing below 5 kts after 05/00z.
634 AM EDT Fri Sep 4 2020 Dry, cool and less humid conditions will prevail today with highs in the lower to mid 70s as a high pressure area builds into the region.
342 AM MDT Fri Sep 4 2020 High pressure will continue to build through the short term forecast.
Conditions continue to be hot with highs reaching into the low 90s with heat indices peaking around 100. With the upper level ridging still in place over the southeastern CONUS and the given thermal profile.
/Issued 352 AM EDT Fri Sep 4 2020/ Upper level ridging will slowly shift to the southwest across south Georgia and north Florida through the short term period.
1023 AM EDT Fri Sep 4 2020 A Cold front will drop south through the Ohio Valley early this morning with high pressure building into the region today. This high will last through the weekend, keeping the forecast dry with below seasonal temperatures to start.
Dry air in the lowest 6-7kft will prevent any sub VFR cu field from developing this afternoon but expect a FEW- SCT coverage across the area.
1052 AM EDT Fri Sep 4 2020 Currently - Surface through lower level ridging remains across the Florida Peninsula and is maintaining moderate easterly breezes across the Keys and surrounding waters. Associated dry air through the lower levels, along with some warmer air is limiting shower development. Short Term Update - Ridging will dominate Keys weather through the afternoon. High temperatures will be in the lower 90s with dew points in the upper 70s. A ridge across Florida will maintain moderate easterly breezes on Keys waters through the afternoon.
618 AM CDT Fri Sep 4 2020 Quiet weather will continue through Saturday as very strong high pressure remains over much of the western and central US. In addition to dry conditions, this high pressure will allow for warm air advection to surge northward into the northern and central Plains. Moderate winds on both Friday and Saturday afternoons will keep heat indices slightly cooler than forecasted highs on both days.
443 AM MDT Fri Sep 4 2020 Current surface analysis shows nearly stationary frontal boundary just to the west of the area, with high pressure centered to the southeast of the region. Upper level analysis shows fast northwest flow over the region, with a large area of high pressure centered over the Great Basin region. Warmer air will build into the area over the next couple of days as the boundary slides slowly east-northeast as a warm front, with highs in the 80s today and 90s to around 100 on Saturday. A weak and dry cold front will approach the area later on Saturday, with southerly winds to the east of the Black Hills, and potentially breezy west to southwest winds developing over northeast WY into far western SD.
Dangerously hot temperatures will grip much of the region through Labor Day weekend as high pressure sprawls across the western states.
532 AM CDT Fri Sep 4 2020 Cold front currently stretches from southern MO into far northeast OK and into the TX Panhandle. In the upper levels, a broad upper trough is in place from Ontario and through the Ohio Valley, with upper ridging over the southwest CONUS. For Sat and Sun, upper ridge over the Desert Southwest is expected to expand west, into the southern High Plains with unseasonably strong northwest flow from the northern Rockies into the Great Lakes region.
As of 630Z, regional observations place the SW-NE oriented cold front just north of the Ohio River. Cold front will continue to push SE across central KY this morning and pass to our east later this afternoon with clearing skies and lower dew points in its wake. Highs today should reach into the low 80s for most. Broad high pressure is expected to hold sway across the region for much of this forecast period. Mostly sunny skies are expected for Saturday with highs in the upper 70s to the lower 80s. Lows Saturday night look to drop into the low-mid 50s.
Latest model data keeps the low level winds pretty weak all day for all the CWA and there isn't much moisture either. May up the highs a degree or two. The upper level ridge will be centered over NV/UT today with a weak and subsident northwesterly flow aloft. Temperatures will climb back into the lower 90s across the urban corridor and northeast plains.
Temperatures are still on track to challenge existing records across the region today and tomorrow under the ridge.
The morning convection that had developed early this morning along this axis has mostly waned across the Wrn sections of E TX, with the more concentrated development along the tail end of this axis near the associated upper low that has developed and continues to spin between ACT and ATT.
Dry weather is expected tonight across the Northern Plains downstream of a ridge that is currently centered over the Southwest CONUS. Temperatures tonight will fall into the lower to middle 40s for most areas, with upper 40s near the South Dakota border.
150 PM EDT Fri Sep 4 2020 A Cold front will drop south through the Ohio Valley early this morning with high pressure building into the region today. This high will last through the weekend, keeping the forecast dry with below seasonal temperatures to start.
140 PM CDT Fri Sep 4 2020 Cold front currently stretches from southern MO into far northeast OK and into the TX Panhandle. In the upper levels, a broad upper trough is in place from Ontario and through the Ohio Valley, with upper ridging over the southwest CONUS. For Sat and Sun, upper ridge over the Desert Southwest is expected to expand west, into the southern High Plains with unseasonably strong northwest flow from the northern Rockies into the Great Lakes region.
/Issued 737 AM EDT Fri Sep 4 2020/ Upper level ridging will slowly shift to the southwest across south Georgia and north Florida through the short term period.
After comparing guidance and some collaborations with neighboring offices, we decided low temperatures should be dialed back a few degrees reflecting the expected cold front. Also, PoPs were decreased in most areas because of the low confidence that there would be any periods of convection in the next few days.
A cold front will move through mid week, leading to the return of fall like temperatures. A broad upper trough will continue the NW to W upper flow over the area, keeping temperatures near normal this weekend.
A 500mb inverted trough moves onshore with a large slug of tropical moisture overspreading the region.
400 PM CDT Fri Sep 4 2020 We continue to see northerly mid to upper-level flow over the forecast area as the trough in the Great Lakes region slowly moves east and ridging remains in the western third of the CONUS, putting us between the two features. This will allow for southerly flow in the low levels to advect moisture back into the area, bringing a return of heat and humidity for the holiday weekend. Have increased overnight lows as a result of the moisture advection with temps only falling to the low to mid 60s. Highs tomorrow are expected to reach the low to mid 90s as dew points rise through the 60s and into the low 70s for some parts of the area.
The upper ridge will slowly continue erode and drift off to the east as an upper trough moves through the great lakes region. Luckily for this afternoon, we will not have to worry about storms as the influences of the upper ridge should keep things squashed. As the ridge continues to erode into Saturday, we will likely see a weak boundary sag south into the area. No do not expect any "cooler" weather with this boundary as it might knock our dewpoints down into the 60s later in the weekend (I'll gladly take it but nothing to get worked up about). Temperatures will remain warm today and Saturday with highs in the low to mid 90s.
The much ballyhooed cold front just reached Clarksville, and will continue its joyous journey across the Mid State today.
BT Strong upper level ridge will yield dry weather w/o too much wind today. On Saturday, winds aloft and mixed wind potential will increase in response to a flattening of the ridge.
342 PM CDT Fri Sep 4 2020 It's been a dry/quiet weather day with a warming trend in temps with increasing southerly low level flow and rising heights aloft as upper ridging builds east of the Rockies. Saturday, the western upper ridge axis dampens as energy moves into the Pacific Northwest which will allow the heat to crank up across our region as the warmer air to the west advects eastward onto the plains.
It will also remain rather hot with high temps reaching the lower/mid 90s, though dewpoints should remain low enough to limit heat stress concerns.
Temperatures should be a little warmer than today--especially across the west--as a mid-level ridge and attendant thermal ridge across the southwest U.
Broad upper level and surface ridging extends west-southwestward from near Bermuda across northern Florida and then along the northern gulf coastline. The latest HRRR guidance has a slow start to showers and storms today with a majority of the weather over the northern counties, interior and southwest Florida where the highest PW's are according to the latest model soundings.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 67 86 64 88 66 / 10 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 64 83 60 87 63 / 20 10 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 63 83 59 87 62 / 10 0 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 59 81 57 84 59 / 20 0 0 0 0.
130 PM CDT Fri Sep 4 2020 High pressure will result in slightly below normal temperatures and lower humidity through the weekend. Values will climb slowly as the high moves east.
138 PM EDT Fri Sep 4 2020 A cold front will cross the area today. High pressure will build across the region through the weekend then exit over the Maritimes through Labor Day. The cold front continues keeps pushing east w/W winds 10-15 mph sustained backing a bit to the SW, which allowed for some brief warming. Otherwise, drier and slightly cooler air will be moving into the region w/in the next 2-4 hrs, which will cap temps from rising much more. Broad upr lvl trof wl be with us over the weekend bfr s/wv ridging builds in Sun evng. Both Sat and Sun afternoons wl feature a slgt chc of showers acrs the north as subtle s/wvs mv thru base of H5 trof.
The big story today is the passage of a late summertime cold front through the area bringing with it drier and cooler conditions along with lower humidity values. Lower dewpoints are slowly start to move into NE Arkansas and the Bootheel behind the aforementioned cold front. We will get our first taste of fall over the next few days due to the presence of high pressure.
301 PM CDT Fri Sep 4 2020 Weak trough moving through the area late this afternoon leading to a subtle wind shift with southwesterly winds becoming westerly. Overnight, a meso high pressure system will build into the northern plains leading to decreasing winds overnight and good radiative conditions. On Saturday, a warm front currently across the Central Plains will lift north through much of the forecast area. Moisture across the central plains is expected surge northward behind the warm front. By late in the day, ribbon of ~1500 J/kg of elevated CAPE develops behind warm front.
1019 AM CDT Fri Sep 4 2020 Today will start out dry, as we remain upstream of a trough. Expect skies to clear out tonight, with temps dropping to the low to mid 40s. The trend of quiet weather continues into Saturday, as high pressure builds over the area. With the trough downstream of the CWA moving further east on Saturday, highs will be slightly warmer with temps in the upper 60s to low 70s. The next chance for precip in the short term comes late Saturday night, as low pressure approaches the area from the southwest along with another low pressure to the northwest of the area.
High pressure will continue as the dominate feature over the next 24 hours with convection mainly suppressed.
218 PM CDT Fri Sep 4 2020 At mid afternoon, a cold front had moved through Clarksville and Nashville, and the front will continue to sweep across the southeast half of the area before dark.
The high pressure center is over eastern Missouri, and that's providing the northerly winds advecting much drier air across southern Indiana and central Kentucky. The flow aloft will transition from northwest to southwest as a stout upper ridge over the Southwest gives way to an upper trough digging into the Rockies. That upper trough will dig into the West and possibly form a cutoff low over the central Rockies. This week the operational GFS aggressively brings the low out into the Plains. Given these factors, and after coordinating with neighbors to the west and north, will go more conservative with the advancement of the trough.
154 PM EDT Fri Sep 4 2020 Dry, cool and less humid conditions will prevail today with highs in the lower to mid 70s as a high pressure area builds into the region.
High pressure will remain in place across the Great Basin through the first part of the weekend.
410 PM EDT Fri Sep 4 2020 19z sfc analysis shows a cold front settling through eastern Kentucky with a broken line of showers and thunderstorms. Dewpoints, meanwhile, vary across the front from the mid 50s northwest to the lower 70s in the southeast. The models remain in good agreement aloft through the short term portion of forecast as the main trough descends deeper into the Ohio Valley.
1136 AM MDT Fri Sep 4 2020 Current surface analysis shows nearly stationary frontal boundary just to the west of the area, with high pressure centered to the southeast of the region. Upper level analysis shows fast northwest flow over the region, with a large area of high pressure centered over the Great Basin region. Warmer air will build into the area over the next couple of days as the boundary slides slowly east-northeast as a warm front, with highs in the 80s today and 90s to around 100 on Saturday. A weak and dry cold front will approach the area later on Saturday, with southerly winds to the east of the Black Hills, and potentially breezy west to southwest winds developing over northeast WY into far western SD.
Lows will drop into the low to mid 50s tonight, with highs near 80 degrees on Saturday.
For Saturday, the upper level low will continue to hang around the area, interacting with abundant low level moisture and an unstable atmosphere to again produce isolated to scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Could see the area affected by these expand to as far north as the I-20 corridor, but confidence is low for that area, so have kept PoPs in the low end Slight Chance category there.
Reimer High pressure will continue to build through the short term forecast.
356 PM EDT Fri Sep 4 2020 High pressure builds in from the west and keeps the forecast dry over the weekend with below seasonal temps to start.
245 PM CDT Fri Sep 4 2020 WV imagery shows an upper ridge centered west of the Four Corners, and another ridge over the SE CONUS, w/an inverted trough sandwiched in between over SE Texas. The inverted trough runs SW-NE thru Texas, favoring the Big Bend Are/lwr Trans Pecos for convection over the weekend.
On Saturday, ensembles and deterministic models are now developing a weak cold front that makes it's way into the northern portions of the forecast area before washing it out by Saturday night. HREF, as well as GEFS and EPS, still show this weak boundary becoming a warm front and lift it back to the north into southern Iowa.
On Saturday lee side cyclogenesis will bring an associated warm front into eastern Montana by Saturday morning. The combination of low humidity, gusty southerly winds to 20 mph, temperatures and the lower 90s and cured grasses will create critical fire weather conditions Saturday afternoon and evening across southwest North Dakota. Highs Saturday will be in the lower 90s west to the mid 70s northeast.
243 PM CDT Fri Sep 4 2020 Quiet afternoon and night ahead as the upper high centered near the CA/NV state line continues to expand.