Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
The fog should burn off sometime during the late morning on Thursday, as onshore flow brings some lake effect snow showers/flurries/freezing drizzle near the lakeshore during the day on Thursday. Main challenges will likely come down to daily cloud and temperature trends, similar to what is occurring now, due to split flow and broad high pressure in place. This could result in increased opportunities for snow and cooler temperatures.
A warm front will lift through the Northland this morning and then stall out just east of the Minnesota Arrowhead over Lake Superior as it runs into strong high pressure centered over James Bay. Low pressure in the Missouri Valley will spread precipitation over the eastern Dakotas into western Minnesota today, but the high pressure to the northeast will keep the Northland dry. Confidence is this system is further reduced by the blocking pattern in place as well. IFR/LIFR stratus is expected to impact the terminals through much of the period as high pressure and a low level inversion remains in place.
The MPX soundings are back and at 12Z showed the moist layers in the low levels and above 770mb with dry air and a very warm nose in between. Water vapor satellite imagery, 500mb heights and observations had the mid-tropospheric ridge shifted to WI/IL/TN, with the area of closed low pressure from eastern SD into eastern Nebraska. Light freezing sprinkles had tried to push toward the forecast area, however the radar echoes were weak in a northwest to southeast band and picked up much more over parts of southwest Minnesota into north west Iowa closer to the storm system.
These winds will quickly subside after sunset this evening as high pressure becomes more centered over the forecast area. With the cooler airmass in place, light winds, and clear skies overnight lows will be at least 10 degrees cooler than last night.
As of early this afternoon, a cold front was located along a Taylor to Austin to Boerne to Carrizo Springs line. The chance for a few strong to severe thunderstorms will continue through the afternoon hours for areas east of the I-35/I-37 corridors as the cold front makes steady eastward progress. The severe weather threat will fade quickly once the cold front passes. Overnight lows will range from the lower 30s on the southern Edwards Plateau to the lower 40s along and east of I-35.
An upper-level BKN cloud deck is currently moving into the region from the west ahead of tomorrow's cold front. Upper ridge will build across the region today, keeping the weather dry with just an increase in high cloud streaming overhead.
As of 300 PM EST, benign weather continues through tonight with mostly cloudy to overcast skies and some flurries, mainly across the higher terrain. Have added in the possibility of very light freezing drizzle as well, due to lack of ice in the clouds. There were also reports of freezing drizzle in nearby areas early this morning so with similar set up, it is possible. The clouds and flurries are in response to an upper low parked off the coast of Nova Scotia. Quiet weather continues into the weekend as the upper low retrogrades/swings back into Nova Scotia and then Maine. Abundant cloud cover is more favorable along and upwind of the high terrain due to blocked flow.
Clear skies expected into the afternoon with weak upper ridge passing over the area. High pressure will build from the northwest this morning, to the north late Today through Tonight. An inverted trough is expected to develop along the coast overnight into early Thursday. An area of low pressure will move east across the area Thursday night, with the associated cold front moving through.
244 PM EST Wed Jan 6 2021 Gloomy but dry under brief high pressure Thursday.
This leans toward a freezing drizzle set up with some snow mixed in. By late Thursday morning, any remaining freezing drizzle and/or snow will change back to drizzle and rain respectively and slowly end as the day progresses.
100 PM EST Wed Jan 6 2021 A high pressure ridge builds from the west and north today. This ridge then persists over northern Ohio and northwest Pennsylvania through this weekend with quiet weather and seasonable temperatures. Will continue with a forecast of a slight chance of snow, drizzle, and freezing drizzle through tonight.
Not expecting much sun today, but with filtered sun and highs in the lower 30s, would expect improving conditions throughout the day. Threat of any freezing rain has ended with snow winding down as dry air continues to erode the northern and eastern extent of coverage. Impacts and concerns in the short term involve this mornings inverted trough and weakening system affecting portions of southeastern ND. Thursday is expected to see high pressure build into the area from the east with better changes for clearing skies on the MN side of the FA.
As an upper low moves across the Arklatex region, a band of precipitation will begin to lift northeastward into southeast Missouri this evening and overnight.
Subtropical ridging is displaced to near 10 degN, just south of a broad band of westerlies across Mexico, the Caribbean, and the Gulf of Mexico.
The low stratus deck is expected to persist through the night, and that combined with the fresh snow pack to provide moisture could lead to fog developing. Winds will be light, with highs in the lower 30s to lower 40s.
Impacts from this low pressure system are expected to be low, as snow levels for most valleys will be high enough to keep snow accumulations around 1 inch or less. However, due to the fluctuating snow levels, light freezing rain/drizzle may occur sometime after midnight before the main moisture source arrives later in the morning. It all depends on how fast snow levels lower as a northwest flow pattern sets in behind the exiting low pressure system.
/issued 1043 AM CST Wed Jan 6 2021/ An upper level low pressure system continues to dig into the Southern Plains this morning. Rain associated with the upper level low is occurring across Western Arkansas at this time. Otherwise, rain should hold off until after midnight when rain begins to spread into Northwest Mississippi and Phillips County, Arkansas as the upper level low tracks near the AR/ LA border. /issued 340 AM CST Wed Jan 6 2021/ Ridge over us continues to move east which brings in the next system. A trough will dig in over the southern plains. The low pressure will track south of our area bringing in rain for the area.
A low amplitude ridge moves into NM around 07/06Z, allowing for skc and mostly calm conditions. The current trough will exit eastern NM early this morning. A back door cold front has pressed south to Roswell with gusty winds behind it. Much cooler temperatures will be the rule in the east today, while western areas will experience around 5 degree cooler temperatures.
Morning satellite pics showing upper trough just off the Pacific NW coast. Today will see breezy and mild conditions with precipitation spreading into southeast Oregon this afternoon and across southwest Idaho overnight as the trough moves inland.
Few breaks throughout region with low level moisture remaining trapped beneath dirty ridge/subsidence. Southern Plains cyclone shifts eastward latter half of workweek followed by coastal cyclone over the weekend.
This is likely promoting virga in locations where snowflakes are falling through the low stratus clouds. While high pressure remains the primary system in place across the fa, bufkit soundings indicate that low-levels remain saturated, which will keep skies nearly overcast through the period. The high pressure system will shift towards the Atlantic coast, with an H5 low traversing the lower CONUS.
1123 AM CST Wed Jan 6 2021 Precipitation expectations remain optimistic as satellite imagery depicts an elongated low pressure along a negatively tilted axis through OK, KS, and NE. Southerly midlevel flow has kept temperatures above freezing diminishing concerns for winter precipitation. Models show a few waves passing through our area, but the lack of moisture and surface ridging means minimal impacts outside of some chilly windy days. That low-level easterly flow will help cool the lower levels of the atmosphere and allow for the transition to IFR ceilings as cloud bases lower.
The upper level trough is progressing from a positive tilt to a negative tilt. I've had discussions within the office and neighbors on the possibility of freezing drizzle. Additionally, with a high pressure moving into the the northern Plains, low stratus (and fog if it develops) are likely to persist well into Thursday.
Wind speeds today are mostly due to mixing aloft as an H85 jet passes over with the overall low pressure system trekking south/southeast. Skies will continue to clear behind the upper low today with mostly clear skies expected today/tonight and tomorrow across the Panhandles.
559 PM CST Wed Jan 6 2021 (This evening through Thursday) Cold front had pushed across Wet Central Texas and brought gusty north winds in its wake. The upper trough swinging across the area today will shift east tonight and bring dry northwest flow for Thursday.
408 PM EST Wed Jan 6 2021 A weak upper level low will remain parked over New England through tonight supporting abundant cloud cover and occasional flurries and light snow showers with spotty minor accumulations. Spotty drizzle and freezing drizzle are possible as well. Lack of moisture in dendritic growth zone could allow some of the pcpn to fall as light freezing drizzle.
Dirty high pressure was over the local area early this afternoon with plenty of low clouds and visibilities in the 1 to 3 mile range. Lows will generally be in the low to mid 20s with a few upper 20s south. Winds will be light out of the northeast, with temperatures mainly in the lower 30s.
The east winds are a bit stronger than forecast, and I've noted the high resolution guidance now sweeps low visibility forecasts westward quickly tonight, and for what it's worth, those forecasts are already far to pessimistic. I will keep it going trough 9 PM, but may decide to either cancel southern areas, or the whole thing at that time unless the fog begins to develop, or ceilings drop a few hundred feet. ERVIN Dirty high pressure was over the local area early this afternoon with plenty of low clouds and visibilities in the 1 to 3 mile range. Lows will generally be in the low to mid 20s with a few upper 20s south. Winds will be light out of the northeast, with temperatures mainly in the lower 30s.
The cold front responsible for the convective activity is just to the northwest of the area, though the wind shift associated with a pre-frontal boundary has almost reached the coast. The cold front will continue to move southeast through the area tonight, with showers and thunderstorms possible along the actual front. Showers and thunderstorms will come to an end early tonight as the front pushes offshore, with cooler and drier air filtering in with northwest flow. Breezy conditions will continue tonight and Thursday as reinforcing high pressure moves across the area. Temperatures will be noticeably cooler by Thursday, with highs in the 60s to near 70, and lows dropping into the mid 30s to low 40s Thursday night.
457 PM MST Wed Jan 6 2021 Quiet weather expected through Thursday as an upper ridge moves across the region.
951 PM EST Wed Jan 6 2021 A weak upper level low will remain parked over New England through tonight supporting abundant cloud cover and occasional flurries and light snow showers with spotty minor accumulations. Spotty drizzle and freezing drizzle are possible as well. Lack of moisture in dendritic growth zone could allow some of the pcpn to fall as light freezing drizzle.
Warmer than average temperatures are also expected throughout the forecast period with highs generally in the 20s to 30s and lows into the teens and 20s. This is driven by general consensus of anomalous upper ridging to the west nudging into the area.
637 PM EST Wed Jan 6 2021 Gloomy but dry under brief high pressure Thursday.
728 PM EST Wed Jan 6 2021 A weak upper level low will remain parked over New England through tonight supporting abundant cloud cover and occasional flurries and light snow showers with spotty minor accumulations. Spotty drizzle and freezing drizzle are possible as well. Lack of moisture in dendritic growth zone could allow some of the pcpn to fall as light freezing drizzle.
/issued 307 PM CST Wed Jan 6 2021/ An upper level low pressure system will begin to push into the Mid-South late tonight. Really don't expect any rain to really move into the area until after midnight which would likely occur across Northwest Mississippi and Phillips County, Arkansas first as the upper low tracks along the AR/LA state border. Changeover will really start to occur across the CWA by the late afternoon into the evening as the upper low moves into Alabama.
Dry conditions are expected through the period as ridging keeps a southern stream low pressure system confined to the southeastern US.
SR Chattanooga Airport, TN 31 48 36 43 31 / 0 60 90 30 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 29 46 35 41 30 / 0 20 80 40 0 Oak Ridge, TN 29 45 35 41 28 / 0 20 80 30 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 28 48 33 40 27 / 0 0 60 60 10 NC.
The quiet weather period with warmer than normal temperatures looks likely to continue for much of this period. In addition to providing a chance for precipitation it could also bring in some warmer air as suggested by on the NBM temperature percentiles. IFR-or-worse conditions likely across all TAF sites this cycle as warmer easterly flow atop the snowpack will allow for low stratus and fog (BR and FZFG) to develop further west than interior western WI at initialization.
While many areas should see less than an inch of snowfall, with some rain mixed in tomorrow afternoon once temperatures rise above freezing, there are some corridors in the southeast where 1-2" of snow could fall along with some rain.
555 PM CST Wed Jan 6 2021 00Z TAFS A line of showers and isolated thunderstorms associated with a passing cold front will push across the region from west to east this evening.
A high pressure ridge remains over the midwest with low pressure over east TX heading toward the deep south. Highs Thursday feature a similar adjustment for highs just above the freezing mark, while areas from Jacksonville to Paris southward reach mid to upper 30s.
The low will move across Mississippi on Thursday, with mainly rain associated with it as temperatures will be to warm for any snowfall.
High pressure will shift east of the area tonight.
/issued 212 PM EST Wed Jan 6 2021/ Broad mid-upper level troughing has shifted east into the Atlantic, while weak ridging briefly sets up over the southeast U. A closed upper low and trough currently located over the central U. On the surface, high pressure remains over the southeast U. Models are spinning up the next area of low pressure and cold front currently located over eastern Texas and is expected to move through the southeast U.
Will have to watch for banded snow again as this trough moves through Thursday evening and night.
650 PM EST Wed Jan 6 2021 A high pressure ridge builds from the west and north today. This ridge then persists over northern Ohio and northwest Pennsylvania through this weekend with quiet weather and seasonable temperatures. This will result in some drizzle and freezing drizzle (depending on surface temperature) occurring, especially in the weaker showers where cloud top temperatures are warmer. Temperatures at night will be in the upper 20s, increasing to the low to mid 30s during the daytime hours. Ridging will persist across the region through the forecast period, with dry conditions expected.
Northerly flow will continue across the area this evening as an upper trough moves to the east, out of the plains and an upper trough moves toward the region. Thursday, the ridge will continue to move into the region.
511 PM CST Wed Jan 6 2021 (This evening through Thursday) Water vapor imagery depicts the center of an upper level low is currently dropping southeastward across the TX panhandle into western north Texas. Ahead of this feature a cold front at the surface has pushed eastward into central Oklahoma with gusty north winds and a drop in temperature seen behind it. As ascent ahead of the upper low increases this afternoon expect showers to continue to develop within a nearly stationary band, roughly along and east of the I-35 corridor. Temperatures will stay well above freezing tonight in areas with precipitation, so no winter weather concerns are expected. With the widespread clouds and cold air advection, highs tomorrow will only reach into the low to mid 40s.
956 PM EST Wed Jan 6 2021 A high pressure ridge builds from the west and north today. This ridge then persists over northern Ohio and northwest Pennsylvania through this weekend with quiet weather and seasonable temperatures. Temperatures near the lakeshore dropped to about 30 degrees where it cleared out but as the clouds returned, temperatures warmed back up into the lower and middle 30s. So, will go ahead and remove the drizzle/freezing drizzle from the overnight hours. This will result in some drizzle and freezing drizzle (depending on surface temperature) occurring, especially in the weaker showers where cloud top temperatures are warmer. Temperatures at night will be in the upper 20s, increasing to the low to mid 30s during the daytime hours. Ridging will persist across the region through the forecast period, with dry conditions expected.
The fog should burn off sometime during the late morning on Thursday, as onshore flow brings some lake effect snow showers/flurries/freezing drizzle near the lakeshore during the day on Thursday. Main challenges will likely come down to daily cloud and temperature trends, similar to what is occurring now, due to split flow and broad high pressure in place. This could result in increased opportunities for snow and cooler temperatures. Vsbys are a little better than yesterday at this time, but the low clouds were more widespread.
A 925mb thermal trough axis will also keep a low stratus deck in place through tomorrow evening resulting in prevailing ceilings around 1000 feet.
Drying trend with high pressure overnight into Thursday.
Lower level winds will likely continue to advect the lower clouds in the west further west out of the CWA, but also advect the lower clouds in the east into the area. A high pressure ridge remains over the midwest with low pressure over east TX heading toward the deep south. Highs Thursday feature a similar adjustment for highs just above the freezing mark, while areas from Jacksonville to Paris southward reach mid to upper 30s.
544 PM CST Wed Jan 6 2021 Upper trough extends from the northern through southern plains this afternoon. Overnight, expect the northern H5 circulation to gradually weaken, with the base of the trough across the southern plains intensifying and becoming dominate as an upper jet rounds the base of the trough. Of more concern is the development of fog and possibly even some patchy freezing drizzle overnight tonight into Thursday morning. Sounding profiles do show some weak lift within the moist layer, and area soundings support a mention of some patchy freezing drizzle.
POTENTIAL WINTER STORM TO IMPACT SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND Cold front this morning has brought a cooler, breezier afternoon across much of the region as elevated NW flow continues with the increasing pressure gradient. Winds will relax tonight with cooler temps regionwide.
Inversion heights and CIGS have increased somewhat in the last 24 hours with an inverted V/wedge of drier air evident in the lowest levels on this evenings APX sounding. South of the bridge, I'll have a N-S gradual cloud thinning trend. Large area of high pressure remains centered from James Bay thru the Great Lakes and the Ohio Valley into the SE US. Some breaks in the low OVC have developed over Eastern Upper MIchigan likely due to downslope flow out of Ontario into that area. Expect overnight lows will cool into the low to mid 20s across Northern Lower Michigan.
Quiet afternoon expected as our upper-level ridge overhead will continue to drift eastward.
220 PM MST Wed Jan 6 2021 Quiet weather expected through Thursday as an upper ridge moves across the region.
307 PM CST Wed Jan 6 2021 An upper level low pressure system will begin to push into the Mid-South late tonight. Really don't expect any rain to really move into the area until after midnight which would likely occur across Northwest Mississippi and Phillips County, Arkansas first as the upper low tracks along the AR/LA state border. Changeover will really start to occur across the CWA by the late afternoon into the evening as the upper low moves into Alabama.
Travel could be rough in a lot of places tomorrow with a cold rain (some freezing) and snow, and a few spots of sleet.
514 PM CST Wed Jan 6 2021 Cold front and associated SHRA/TSRAs are moving southeast across the waters with skies clearing in its wake. The cold front responsible for the convective activity is just to the northwest of the area, though the wind shift associated with a pre-frontal boundary has almost reached the coast. The cold front will continue to move southeast through the area tonight, with showers and thunderstorms possible along the actual front. Showers and thunderstorms will come to an end early tonight as the front pushes offshore, with cooler and drier air filtering in with northwest flow. Breezy conditions will continue tonight and Thursday as reinforcing high pressure moves across the area. Temperatures will be noticeably cooler by Thursday, with highs in the 60s to near 70, and lows dropping into the mid 30s to low 40s Thursday night.
Could see some enhanced snowfall amounts roughly along the Highway 60 corridor from Fordland east if this verifies. A dusting of snow is possible across portions of the area tonight into Thursday, with greatest potential for measurable snowfall of up to 1-2 inches generally along and south of the highway 60 corridor. Surface temperatures will be a big player in amounts and impacts, with most areas staying at or above freezing tonight. Rest of the forecast period is cooler and quiet. Winds will slowly shift from southeasterly this evening to northeasterly tomorrow morning, generally sustained at around 8-15 knots, with the highest winds in this range at SGF.
A weak ridge will pass through the central Rockies today and tonight. Some high cirrus clouds are expected over the region, which will lead to slightly warmer overnight lows than what was experienced last night. However, any snow accumulations will be limited to a coating or less in the highest peaks.
336 PM CST Wed Jan 6 2021 Upper trough extends from the northern through southern plains this afternoon. Overnight, expect the northern H5 circulation to gradually weaken, with the base of the trough across the southern plains intensifying and becoming dominate as an upper jet rounds the base of the trough. Of more concern is the development of fog and possibly even some patchy freezing drizzle overnight tonight into Thursday morning. Sounding profiles do show some weak lift within the moist layer, and area soundings support a mention of some patchy freezing drizzle.
A wintry mix and freezing drizzle highlight the short term.
This has kept overnight lows several degrees warmer than yesterday's readings, though values are still running near to slightly below normal for early January.
Pattern synopsis/forecast: Definitely a quiet January night across the Northwoods with both mid and surface based ridging building directly overhead. Deep layer high pressure is forced to remain centered across our area through the remainder of this week as southern stream low pressure passes by well to our south and deep troughing pivots across New England and the Canadian Maritimes. Details: Uneventful weather set to continue today and tonight as high pressure remains in control. Northerly flow on the eastern periphery of said high pressure will continue over the forecast area with above normal temperatures still occurring.
The region currently sits in a bit of a col between high pressure across the Upper Midwest and areas of low pressure across the Midsouth and far northeast.