Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
320 AM MST Sun Jan 21 2018 This morning a low pressure system is making its way across the Rockies and into the central Plains states, while a high pressure ridge is moving across the northwestern states into Montana. Behind that, there are low pressure systems off the coast of British Columbia and over the Gulf of Alaska. Ahead of the high pressure system moving into the region, winds will be relatively light and some patchy fog is possible this morning, mainly along the Missouri River valley. With the ridge overhead, temperatures in the 20s and 30s and generally sunny skies can be expected today.
SHORT TERM (Now through Monday): A Closed 500 mb low pressure over the Four Corners Region early this morning will move from west to east across Texas Today. The associated cold front is located across west Texas this morning and will approach deep south Texas by late this evening. The Low Level Jet will strengthen today as the front approaches the region. The weak cold front is expected to move into the northern Ranchlands around midnight and off the lower Texas coast after dawn bringing slightly cooler and drier air behind it. Low temperatures tonight will range from the lower 50s across the western portions of the CWA to the lower 60s near the coast. High temperatures Monday should reach the lower 70s.
Showers will increase during the afternoon as a cold front approaches. Today Through Monday Upper low pressure will move out of the Four Corners Region today and into the Plains by tonight. This low will move through northern Missouri Monday. Strong westerly flow will move into Arkansas as the low passes north of the state. High pressure will build into the area by late Monday.
As of 9Z, an upper level trough of low pressure is located over the four corners region. Moisture advection, along with a 100+ knot upper level jet ahead of the trough is producing snow over southwestern SD this morning. While pcpn is moving east-northeast, it is running into drier air in the lower level with little pcpn so far in this CWA.
/Issued 432 AM CST Sun Jan 21 2018/ Closed mid-level low pressure center crosses northern part of forecast area this afternoon, producing strong winds and elevated to critical fire weather conditions. Pacific cold front arrives this morning, with strong winds commencing by noon. Canadian cold front arrives late this afternoon shifting winds to northwest. In spite of strong winds and sub-freezing temperatures tonight, wind chill values are not expected to fall into advisory or warning thresholds.
The low will then track E/NE, reaching northeast Iowa by 00z Tue. The big question will be if any additional convection develops on the edge of the dry slot Monday afternoon, as NAM shows MUCAPEs in excess of 500J/kg along the advancing cold front. High temperatures will soar well into the 50s before the cold front arrives late in the day. Have featured likely PoPs along/north of a Taylorville to Danville line as the low tracks into the Great Lakes.
Upstream a trough continues to form over southern Canada just north of Minnesota. A weak warm front extends south into southern Minnesota then east to southern Wisconsin at 05z.
However, another round of isolated to scattered storms is expected to develop across the region, with the highest concentration in North Central Louisiana this afternoon.
We have enjoyed a rather productive period of northwest flow, but the high pressure ridge that has been building to our west over the 4 Corners will begin to expand eastward today, bending the upper flow north/northeasterly. Thunderstorms will rotate around the edge of the ridge, which will be to the east and southeast of us. Models are still trying to weaken the ridge slightly this weekend, which would allow for precip chances to return briefly. Past this, the high should shift eastward covering our region, plunging us into a dry spell.
Heat ridge to the west will push further east into western Nebraska today. A ridge of high pressure will be stationed over the western US allowing plenty of warm air advection into the region.
Deep layer ridging will continue today with hot temperatures again this afternoon. Highs will climb into the mid to upper 90s, resulting in heat indices in the low to mid 100s across much of the CWA, with the mid 100s heat index values across much of the Big Bend.
709 AM EDT Wed Jul 5 2017 High pressure over the area will gradually shift offshore today. As the high moves offshore, a southerly flow will introduce gradually more humid air into northern New England through the remainder of the week.
935 AM EDT Wed Jul 5 2017 Low level ridge axis extends a little north of the Cape, which shows up well in sat/radar images this morning. To the south of the ridge axis, winds have more of an onshore SE component over the Treasure Coast counties. Hot again today, with highs reaching the low 90s along the coast and up to the mid 90s over the interior, with heat index values reaching 100-105.
1034 AM EDT Wed Jul 5 2017 High pressure will remain over the region for one more day, dry seasonable weather continues. Previous discussion below: High pressure will crest over the region today and begin to slide eastward this afternoon. Minimum temperatures will be a bit warmer with increasing humidity also, generally upper 50s to mid 60s. Temperatures Thursday will be a bit warmer than normal and close to Wednesday temps.
Of course at the surface the high humidity continues and with the drier air aloft the clouds and eventual convective development will be delayed thus allowing temperatures to rapidly climb into the lower and middle 90s by early this afternoon.
Weak low pressure areas will travel east along it.
The low will continue to drive through a school zone as it crosses Southern MO today, then transition into a mid-level trof when it reaches the mid-MS Valley tonight. With its surface counterpart likewise drifting east, a few light showers that will wrap around the low may clip far Southeast KS until late this afternoon. Thu & Thu Night: It'll be dry across the KS Neighborhood as a strong, massive mid to upper high drifts east toward the Rockies. This would send a weak cold front S/SE with the front (which is more like a surface trof) into KS.
1203 PM EDT Wed Jul 5 2017 High pressure over the area will gradually shift offshore today. As the high moves offshore, a southerly flow will introduce gradually more humid air into northern New England through the remainder of the week.
1024 AM EDT Wed Jul 5 2017 High pressure will provide another pleasant day with seasonal temperatures, low humidity and generally rain-free weather.
As of 8Z, an area of low pressure is pushing into northern MN with a trailing cold front along the ND/SD border. This front will lift northward as a warm front today as a low pressure system approaches the region from the northwest.
Region at 2 AM CDT under weak high pressure with increasing high clouds from disturbance over Missouri. At the surface a cold front will extend from northern Wisconsin into western IA. 4km NAM has convection firing along the cold front then sliding south and east with time. After this, the weekend still looks to be amazing, with highs in the low 80s, lower RH, breezy and lows in the 50s at night.
/issued 347 AM CDT Wed Jul 5 2017/ An upper level low centered over Missouri this morning will gradually slide east into Illinois and Indiana by this afternoon. Simultaneously, strong ridging will develop across the western US (where the heat will be on). Jones Upper level ridging will give way to a developing and seemingly persistent trough that will envelope the region during the latter half of the week. High pressure across the northwestern gulf will keep winds light out of the south.
/Issued 258 AM CDT Wed Jul 5 2017/ Low level moisture, instability and many outflow boundaries will combine with an upper level short wave trough moving south across the Texas Panhandle this afternoon and evening to produce another round of showers and thunderstorms. It appears at this point that the best chance of rain will be across the southern Texas Panhandle ahead of the short wave trough. Thursday may be a dry day as the upper level high builds move over Colorado which leaves the panhandles in a less favorable northeast flow for showers and thunderstorms.
1238 PM EDT Wed Jul 5 2017 High pressure will provide fair weather today into this evening. There is a low chance for showers on Thursday southeast of US 24 as weak low pressure tracks through the Ohio Valley. Most locations will remain dry with highs in the low to mid 80s both today and Thursday.
/Issued 340 AM EDT Wed Jul 5 2017/ Warm/humid airmass to persist in the short term as regime stays in the SW mean fetch with a closed upper trough west of the TN Valley and the typical summertime Bermuda high off the Southeast coast. The aforementioned trough is progged to dampen gradually and approach from the NW today into Thursday, which will allow the CWA to be susceptible to multiple impulses traversing the weak flow in the more enhanced moisture field. Temps for most locations in the upper 80s north to mid 90s SE coupled with the unwelcome dewpoints in the low 70s will result in afternoon heat indices of upper 90s to low 100s.
Water Vapor/Infrared Satellite trends along with 00Z upper air analysis places an upper level low over Southwest Missouri earLy this morning. Short term models are in relatively decent agreement this morning with the upper level low over Southwest Missouri slowly moving east today and gradually becoming absorbed into a longwave upper level trough axis by Thursday and Thursday night.
H85 temps are prog to be a degree or two cooler today.
912 AM EDT Wed Jul 5 2017 High pressure centered just north of Lake Ontario will drift east into New England today. A weak trough will develop across northeast Ohio and northwest Pennsylvania this afternoon then low pressure will track northeast into southern Ohio Thursday.
/issued 345 AM CDT Wed Jul 5 2017/ An upper ridge currently extends from the western Atlantic to the western Gulf of Mexico. A weak trough has moved into the Central Plains and will slide into the mid-Mississippi Valley today. The relatively close proximity of that trough to the ridge overhead of the CWA will weaken the high pressure's subsidence. The general trend of slowly transitioning back to a wetter pattern will continue into the rest of this week as the weaker trough to the north slowly merges with another.
716 AM EDT Wed Jul 5 2017 Aviation High pressure will provide one more day of fair weather before moving east on Thursday. A cold front will bring the chance of strong to severe thunderstorms on Thursday afternoon and evening.
In the low levels of the atmosphere, an Atlantic ridge of high pressure will extend across Central Florida this afternoon. In the mid levels of the atmosphere, an Atlantic ridge of high pressure will extend across North Florida today. In the upper levels of the atmosphere, an area of low pressure will be centered over the Florida Straits this afternoon.
A ridge of high pressure from the western Atlantic across the southeastern states will continue to dominate the area through tonight. This will lead to continued hot and muggy conditions across the central Gulf coast today with highs in the low to mid 90s inland to low 90s near the coast. The best chance for seeing an isolated shower or thunderstorm will be across western zones where better deep layer moisture resides along with a weaker upper ridge. Lows tonight remain very muggy with lows in the low 70s inland to upper 70s along the coast.
Just a few light showers in the higher terrain of Sevier and Blount Counties. Chattanooga Airport, TN 87 72 89 72 / 60 50 60 50 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 84 70 87 71 / 50 60 60 60 Oak Ridge, TN 84 71 87 71 / 60 60 70 70 Tri Cities Airport, TN 82 68 85 68 / 50 50 70 70.
700 AM CDT Wed Jul 5 2017 Fairly quiet early this morning with high pressure remaining in control across the Great Leaks/Upper Mississippi River valley region. For today, will be watching a weak mid-level trough pass through southern Ontario/northern WI with increasing moisture plume filling into our area.
1203 PM EDT Wed Jul 5 2017 High pressure centered just north of Lake Ontario will drift east into New England today. A weak trough will develop across northeast Ohio and northwest Pennsylvania this afternoon then low pressure will track northeast into southern Ohio Thursday.
The annoying trof that has plagued the area the last 3 days and caused multiple fcst headaches has finally departed into the mid MS Vly. and another 50 m of rises will occur today as the high expands over the Plns. A little hotter with temps inching closer to or into the low 90s. Global models are in fairly good agreement building a strong ridge of high pressure centered over the four corners region early in the period. the local area will be near the periphery of the upper level ridge with multiple weak disturbances brushing the area. expect this to be potentially the warmest day of the extended periods as adiabatic compression ahead of a weak cold front helps to enhance high temperatures across the region.
We'll keep a 15-20 percent chance going as we hold on to low-level moisture and the cap isn't overly strong with ridge still off to the west. We have enjoyed a rather productive period of northwest flow, but the high pressure ridge that has been building to our west over the 4 Corners will begin to expand eastward today, bending the upper flow north/northeasterly. Thunderstorms will rotate around the edge of the ridge, which will be to the east and southeast of us. Models are still trying to weaken the ridge slightly this weekend, which would allow for precip chances to return briefly. Past this, the high should shift eastward covering our region, plunging us into a dry spell.
Hot temperatures to continue under the persistent ridge, with triple digit highs expected across the valleys. Monsoonal moisture still looks to potentially create showers and thunderstorms over the next couple afternoons, mainly over the higher terrain. An upper ridge centered over the Four Corners will keep the heat on through Thursday. High temperatures will range from around 90 in the mountains to the low 100s in the valleys each day.
Mid level high pressure to the east has built across the eastern CWA bringing more subsident/drier air to the area. H85 temps are prog to be a degree or two cooler today.
A ridge of high pressure will remain the dominant weather feature across the region through the upcoming weekend. Water Vapor Satellite shows a ridge overhead.
1038 AM MDT Wed Jul 5 2017 Satellite imagery shows continued drying in the midlevels as the upper ridge continues to build into the state. Isolated storms still expected over the higher terrain with main hazards being gusty winds. Upper level high will build slowly eastward into the state through tonight. The combination of the two will effectively cap off the atmosphere across the plains, while a few high based showers/storms with gusty winds still possible over the higher terrain. Where this convection occurs, expect temperatures to remain similar or slightly cooler than todays readings, whereas elsewhere will likely be a degree or two hotter. The plains should see reading of mid to upper 90s, with several spots over the east plains, especially along the lower South Platte River valley to reach 100 degrees or more.
1011 AM EDT Wed Jul 5 2017 High pressure over the area will gradually shift offshore today. As the high moves offshore, a southerly flow will introduce gradually more humid air into northern New England through the remainder of the week.
Warmer and more unstable air has better organization with early heating and will remain over parts of Kisatchie forest and central Louisiana into the afternoon while working SEward with the outflow's influence. However, another round of isolated to scattered storms is expected to develop across the region, with the highest concentration in North Central Louisiana this afternoon.
Due to more cloud cover today temperatures will be a little cooler, with afternoon highs mainly in the low to mid 90s. Lows tonight will be in the lower 70s.
1027 AM MDT Wed Jul 5 2017 High pressure centered over the Four Corners will keep temperatures well above normal for this time of year. 700mb temps will hover near or just below 20 C each afternoon which translates to near triple digits persisting in the lower valleys through at least the weekend. weak disturbances will rotate around the high pressure in place, and these may pull some moisture under the ridge axis. Thunderstorms will be possible each afternoon over the mountains with erratic winds and lightning being the greatest Isolated showers and thunderstorms are expected over the higher mountains in western Colorado with gusty outflow winds to near 35 kts.
Either way, still expect well above average rain chances tonight and Thursday as upper level low/trof over the Mid MS Valley moves slowly eastward. Felt the low current temps would mostly bounce back this afternoon with some breaks in the showers and clouds.
700 mb temps top out around 16 to 20C which would yield high temps well into the 90s to around 100 in the lower elevations. Afternoon convection chances will be minimal with strong upper ridging in place and warming/subsidence aloft. Easterly flow north of the boundary along with a weak mid level impulse will likely spark off widely scattered to scattered convection along the higher terrain in the early afternoon and then spreading eastward along the boundary during the early evening.
A classic summertime pattern is shaping up through this weekend, with a strong upper high over the Southwest U. and an upper trough out near 140W. A classically summery Four- Corners upper high is firmly in place over the Southwest U. , and a closed upper low will meander around the northeast Pacific with a trailing trough near 140W.
/issued 404 AM CDT Wed Jul 5 2017/ SHORT TERM (Today through Thursday): South Texas comes under the influence of a Col over the next few days with High pressure to the west and east and lower pressure to the north and south of the region. Gulf moisture gradually increases and deepens the next 36 hours, however high pressure will continue to dominate today with little to no forcing for any significant convection.
A strong upper high over the Southwest U. and an upper trough out near 140W will continue for the next several days.
650 AM CDT Wed Jul 5 2017 Upper level low will slowly move across the area today into early Thursday. The GFS looks a bit more consistent with the movement and position of the low so have pretty much followed it.
739 AM EDT Wed Jul 5 2017 High pressure will remain over the region for one more day, dry seasonable weather continues. High pressure will crest over the region today and begin to slide eastward this afternoon. Minimum temperatures will be a bit warmer with increasing humidity also, generally upper 50s to mid 60s. Temperatures Thursday will be a bit warmer than normal and close to Wednesday temps.
No significant pattern changes are forecast during the short term period, with stacked high pressure holding in place across northern Florida.
/Issued 338 AM CDT Wed Jul 5 2017/ Current water vapor imagery and H5 heights show upper low slowly rotating over southwest Missouri early this morning. A few light showers noted across northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas on the backside of the low. Upper low will be very slow to move east and portions of eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas could see additional scattered showers and isolated thunder this afternoon.
1250 PM EDT Wed Jul 5 2017 Typical summer pattern will persist this week with Bermuda high pressure extending from the Western Atlantic into the Gulf of Mexico and a lee-side trough in the forecast area. Upper level ridge to our SE building slightly NW towards our forecast area (FA). Upper level ridge continues over the southeastern states through Thursday which should limit afternoon convection and temperatures in the upper 90s. Upper ridge shifting southeast into the Atlantic as long wave trough moves into the eastern CONUS.
Persistent western ridge will remain in place over the next several days allowing northwesterly flow to continue over the region. A cold front is progged to drop into the area Thursday afternoon/evening providing only a wind shift.
837 AM EDT Wed Jul 5 2017 Deep layered ridge axis was located near the FL/GA border, and dry and sinking air aloft will limit convection again today. Expect a late start to convection once again due to the subsidence aloft leading to convective temperatures in the lower 90s. Flow around the ridge is forecast to bring in higher moisture values along I-75 and the western portion of southeast Georgia, and scattered showers and storms are expected to develop late in the afternoon and early evening as the Gulf coast sea breeze moves inland and merges with the east coast sea breeze.
KLG With an upper level ridge of high pressure over the region, expect afternoon temperatures to generally range from the lower 90s to the upper 90s over the next several days.
Main near term focus remains the potential for showers and thunderstorms with the approach and passage of an upper level low/trough through Thursday evening. Early this morning, the center of low pressure was positioned over southwest Missouri. Bands of showers and some thunderstorms were rotating around the upper low. The low is forecast to slowly trudge east across southern Missouri into the Middle Mississippi Valley on Thursday and eventually the Ohio Valley Thursday night. Large scale forcing for ascent ahead of this low coupled with an unstable and very humid air mass will result in waves of showers and some thunderstorms today through Thursday. Rain chances will taper off from west to east Thursday afternoon and evening as the low shifts to our east.
An upper ridge was located over the northern Gulf of Mexico and an upper trof across the Mid Mississippi Valley. The upper ridge has suppressed convection for areas south of I-20, and this trend will continue through tonight. Temperatures will climb into the lower to middle 90s for most of the area, and heat indices will reach 102-105 this afternoon for areas south of a line from Tuscaloosa to Selma line. As the front and associated trough axis slowly slide southeastward through Central AL, expect increased chances of rain and thunderstorms.
TFJ Hot and dry conditions will continue today with upper ridge extending through the Great Basin. Temperatures will cool slightly on Thursday with Canadian high pressure pushing out of Saskatchewan and into the northern Plains. With the high pressure will come another, but slower, shift of the winds around to the southeast. Synoptic Setup: Thursday night begins with a large area of hot high pressure covering the western half of the CONUS. Ridge spurs jut out from here over central US Plains into the Middle Mississippi Valley and up through British Columbia and Yukon Territory through the Rockies. A large closed low lies off the coast of British Columbia and into the Gulf of Alaska.
Closed low/mid circulation is evident across southwest Missouri, and this feature may be enough to support scattered showers and isolated thunder across far northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas this afternoon.
The period begins with a highly amplified mid level pattern across the conus, featuring a central/eastern conus trof, and rockies/western conus ridge.
High pressure over California will maintain dry and mild conditions through tomorrow.
Very quiet short term period with high pressure building over the region. Seeing some low temperatures in the northeast this morning dropping below freezing. With reinforcing high pressure ridge moving in this morning will be a few degrees cooler this afternoon than what we saw yesterday with most locations topping out in the 50s. Clear skies tonight will result in another potential for freezing temperatures, again northern tier of counties will be most likely. High temperatures Sunday a bit warmer as flow gradually becomes onshore once again.