Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Highs will be in the lower to mid 90s. The Texas Tech WRF is indicating scattered thunderstorms developing across the high terrain of southwest Texas this afternoon. The combination of weak mid to upper level ascent, low level convergence along a cold front(to our northwest), increasing low level jet and some instability will bring a chance of showers and thunderstorms to much of West Central Texas. The hi res models indicate convection rapidly developing along cold front across the Texas Panhandle on east into Oklahoma this evening.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD.
UPPER LOW DRIFTING SLOWLY EAST AND STILL ACROSS EAST KENTUCKY LATE TONIGHT. AFTER SHOWERS END AT TRI IN THE EARLY MORNING EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS WITH SOME MVFR CATEGORY FOG AT TYS AND TRI AROUND 07-13Z AS THE LOW LEVELS BECOME SATURATED LATE TONIGHT.
248 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST ACROSS THE REGION TODAY BEFORE SLIDING OFFSHORE.
422 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015 LOW/MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS STRETCHING WWD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF PROGGED TO LIFT NWD AND EXPAND OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SURGE OF BETTER MSTR COUPLED WITH A PAIR OF WEAK INVERTED TROFS UNDERCUTTING THE RIDGE WILL LEAD TO BETTER POPS. 13 LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEK. A BROAD UPPER LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN LATE IN THE WEEK.
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD TODAY ALLOWING FOR A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT/CLEARING OF CONDITIONS AND SKY COVER FROM SW TO NE THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
355 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015 Heavy rain and cooler temperatures are still on track to affect the area over the next few days. The upper ridge that was persistent over the area last week has now flattened out across northern Mexico this morning.
A 100+ KT JET STREAK IS TRACKING ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA AND MODERATE TO STRONG VORTICITY ADVECTION IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING 500 MB TROUGH. HODOGRAPHS SHOW NICE CURVATURE IN THE LOW LEVELS OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
A FEW SHOWERS HAVE POPPED UP ALONG THE BACK EDGE OF THIS BOUNDARY MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. FAVORED AREAS WILL BE IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WITH SHRA/TSRA MOVING NORTHEAST.
REGIONAL RADAR CURRENTLY SHOWING LINE OF ACTIVITY STRETCHING FROM THE WRN GREAT LAKES TO SWRN NEB ALONG AN INTENSE COLD FRONT TRACKING SLOWLY TO THE EAST. BOTH ECM AND GFS DEPICT A GRADUAL LARGE SCALE TRANSITION TO A HIGH PRESSURE DOME ENVELOPING THE CONUS WHICH WILL ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO REBOUND INTO NEAR NORMAL TERRITORY.
THEY HAVE WEAKENED JUST NORTH OF THE LOWER KEYS. A RIDGE WILL REPLACE A NARROW TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. RESIDENT HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED IN THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC AND STRETCHED ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WILL BE IN NO HURRY TO MOVE. THE HIGHEST WIND SPEEDS WILL BE A HIGHER THREAT FOR OFFSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS. MAINLY SOUTH OF THE LOWER KEYS.
545 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015 A COOLER AIRMASS WILL SETTLE ONTO THE PLAINS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALOFT THE WESTERN EXTENT AN UPPER TROUGH WAS TRANSLATING SOUTHEAST THRU MT AND THIS TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY. LOW PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM MINNESOTA TO EASTERN COLORADO WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA THRU WESTERN/CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND KANSAS. THE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE SOUTHEAST DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS AND DURING THE DAY MONDAY WITH TSTM CHCS EXISTING WITH FORCING ALONG THE FRONT. COOLER AIR ADVECTS SOUTH WITH DPS PROGGED TO DROP INTO THE 50S.
415 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER OUR AREA WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER WITH WARM TEMPERATURES TODAY. A COLD FRONT OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND PLAINS WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS OUR AREA LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. WAA AND BETTER GRADIENT MIXING WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUATION OF THE WARMING TREND TODAY WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN YDAY. LEANED TOWARD THE FASTER/COOLER SOLUTIONS IN THIS PORTION OF THE CWA. MOISTURE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT BUT SOME CONCERN REGARDING ASSOCIATED SHOWER/THUNDER CHANCES WITH THIS FEATURE GIVEN NORTH BYPASS OF MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS AND UNCERTAINTIES WITH POTENTIAL PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH/CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW. 25-30 KNOTS OF SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS AND POTENTIAL FOR WEAK BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION WARRANT SPC'S TUESDAY AFTN MARGINAL RISK (ISO WIND THREAT AT BEST).
A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM A LOW OVER HUDSON BAY SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. MEANWHILE A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN AND WESTERN MONTANA. RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT WERE SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR AREA. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS OVER HUDSON BAY. WITH A TRAILING TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD INTO MONTANA. ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER EASTERN MONTANA WERE LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. TODAY THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA. BY LATE AFTERNOON THE AXIS OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BE IN EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. LOOKING AT COOLER CONDITIONS TODAY AND LESS HUMID.
THIS AREA IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES FARTHER AWAY FROM THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE. THE UPPER LOW REMAINED OVER SE NM TO WEST TX.
HIGH PRESSURE SITS OFF TO OUR NORTH. AND UPPER LOW CONTINUES SLOW EASTWARD TREK OFF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES/NEW MEXICO REGION. THIS LOW IS FORECASTED TO SET UP OVER NORTHERN/CENTRAL TEXAS BY MONDAY MORNING. COINCIDING WITH MOVEMENT OF UPPER LOW. UPPER LOW MOVING SLOWLY EASTWARD THRU THE DAY. OVERALL MODEL TREND HAS BEEN TO SPEED UP EXIT OF PRECIP WITH DRY AIR ADVECTING INTO THE REGION ALONG WITH AXIS OF SUBSIDENCE IMMEDIATELY BEHIND H5 TROUGH AXIS MOVING OVER THE CWA CONDITIONS.
WHILE A TRAILING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE REACHED TO THE SOUTHWEST INTO WEST TEXAS SOUTH OF THE BIG BEND AREA. ALOFT A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES EJECTING AROUND THE BASE OF A CLOSED LOW OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND THE WESTERN PAN HANDLE AREA OF TEXAS. THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS NEAR THE RED RIVER AND INTO ARKANSAS AND NORTH LOUISIANA. AN OCCULUDED FRONT INTO LOWER PARTS OF THE PAN HANDLE AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT TRAILING TO THE SOUTHWEST INTO WEST TEXAS AND MEXICO. AND COOLER TEMPERATURES.
NORTHEAST OF THIS UPPER LOW A 700MB DEFORMATION ZONE EXTENDED FROM NORTHEAST COLORADO TO SOUTHEAST KANSAS. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER WESTERN NEW MEXICO THIS MORNING WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE BY MONDAY MORNING WHILE CLOSING OFF THEN SLOWING DOWN. THUNDERSTORMS WERE DEVELOPING IN THE WARM SECTOR ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS MAY CUT OFF THE LOW LEVEL MOIST INFLOW INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS AS THE SYSTEM PASSES TO THE SOUTH. IF THE RAIN SHIELD STAYS IN OKLAHOMA ON MONDAY THEN TEMPERATURES COULD EASILY RISE INTO THE LOWER 60S FROM DODGE CITY NORTHWARD IF THE SUN MAKES AN APPEARANCE. FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY, THE UPPER LOW AND ATTENDANT RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE MOVING EAST AND SOUTH OF WESTERN KANSAS.
SLIGHTLY BETTER MOISTURE PROFILES WRAPPING AROUND UPPER LOW SHOULD ACCOMPANY THIS SECOND WAVE. COOLER CONDITIONS EXPECTED CLOSER TO LAKE MICHIGAN ONCE AGAIN AS ONSHORE FLOW PERSISTS. LIMITED RIDGING WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS INTO AT LEAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND POSSIBLY WEDS NGT. PHASING OF SYSTEMS STILL EXPECTED BUT MAY END UP MORE SOUTH OF THE REGION VS SE AS LARGER UPPER LOW SLOWER TO DEPART.
406 AM EDT MON APR 27 2015 HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST TODAY INTO TUESDAY.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRY COOLER THAN NORMAL WEATHER TO EASTERN KENTUCKY TODAY AND TOMORROW. HIGH TEMPERATURES EACH DAY ARE EXPECTED TO TOP OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. WITH LOWS DROPPING TO AROUND 40 ON AREA RIDGES. A CLOSED LOW CURRENTLY ALONG THE NM/TX BORDER WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST EARLY THIS WEEK.
ALOFT A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WERE EJECTING AROUND THE BASE OF A CLOSED LOW OVER NEW MEXICO AND THE WESTERN PAN HANDLE AREA OF TEXAS AND MOVING ACROSS THE SURFACE SYSTEMS PROVIDING LIFT AND MOISTURE ALOFT TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS NEAR THE RED RIVER AND INTO ARKANSAS AND NORTH LOUISIANA. AN OCCULUDED FRONT INTO LOWER PARTS OF THE PAN HANDLE AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT TRAILING TO THE SOUTHWEST INTO WEST TEXAS AND MEXICO. AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE SHIFTINTG INTO NORTHWEST MISSSISSIPPI.
DRY AND COOL WEATHER IS EXPECTED THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST CONTINUE TO PROVIDE DRY AND COOL NORTH WINDS TO CENTRAL INDIANA. SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. WATER VAPOR SHOWS A SPLIT FLOW ALOFT WITH RIDGING INTO ONTARIO AND A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WORKING THROUGH THE AMERICAN SOUTHWEST. BROAD LOW PRESSURE WAS IN PLACE ALOFT OFF THE COAST OF NEW FOUNDLAND. AND A FEW SHORT WAVES EMBEDDED WITH THE FLOW AROUND THE LOW WAS RESULTING IN A FEW CLOUDS OVER EAST CENTRAL INDIANA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHTS REMAIN DRY TODAY AS INDIANA WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NORTHWEST AND COOL NORTH WINDS. PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE EAST WHERE TEMPS ALOFT ARE SLIGHTLY COOLER.
MVFR CIGS DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE THIS EVENING INTO OVERNIGHT. NLY WINDS 10 TO 20 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS PREVAIL TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY IN THE WAKE OF COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. AT THE SURFACE A COLD FRONT STRETCHED FROM MINERAL WELLS TO EAGLE PASS. THERE WERE THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT MOVING TOWARD THE EAST. DURING THIS PERIOD THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS ALONG THE RED RIVER REACHING ARKANSAS BY TUESDAY EVENING. THERE WILL BE A TROUGH TRAILING BEHIND THE LOW FROM THE ARKLATEX REGION TO THE WESTERN PANHANDLE. THIS WILL BRING COOLER. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHERN COUNTIES TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER THAN MONDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN BEGINNING MONDAY AND REMAIN THROUGH MID WEEK.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL FINALLY MOVE THROUGH TODAY AND PUSH THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. THESE CONDITIONS ARE NOT LIKELY TO IMPROVE UNTIL LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES. TEMPERATURES COULD MAKE A RUN AT THE LOW 30S. THE FORECAST FLOW WILL RETURN TO A MORE PROGRESSIVE ONE BUT LITTLE MOISTURE IS SEEN SO LITTLE CHANGE IS FORECAST FOR THE PRECIPITATION PATTERN THROUGH THE EXTENDED HOWEVER WARMER WEATHER WILL BE ON ITS WAY. MODELS AGREE INITIALLY IN BUILDING A RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST US WITH A CUTOFF LOW TO THE SOUTH ACROSS OKLAHOMA EXITING THE CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE COUNTRY ON TUESDAY.
143 AM EDT MON APR 27 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH INTO THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY.
415 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015 GOES IR/WV IMAGERY SHOWED A CLOSED UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR THE TX/NM BORDER. EXTENSIVE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE TX MCS WERE FLOWING INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY. GIVEN THE RELATIVELY SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE CLOSED LOW.
508 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015 COOLER AND DRIER AIR HAS SPREAD ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA EARLY THIS MORNING. THE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED INTO EXTREME SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND THE NORTHERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE. THE VERY POTENT UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST STATES WILL SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD. WHICH BRINGS THE LOW FARTHER NORTH INTO SOUTHERN ALABAMA. WITH THE VAST MAJORITY OF SOLUTIONS KEEPING THE LOW ALONG THE COAST. IF THE LOW DID TRACK FARTHER NORTH. WE'LL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST TRENDS IN THE TRACK OF THE LOW. WITH THE LOW TRACKING OFF TO OUR SOUTH. THE HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL CERTAINLY BE ALONG OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES WHERE MOISTURE VALUES AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE HIGHEST.
UPPER LOW CURRENTLY NEAR THE TX PANHANDLE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SLOWLY EASTWARD. WITH A GRADUAL WARM UP FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS WEAK RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. 13 MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS EAST OF THE REGION. DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS.
435 AM EDT MON APR 27 2015 UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL KEEP UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MID WEEK. SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE ARE CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR NORTHEASTERN NOVA SCOTIA. 10" AT BEST W/THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS CLOSER TO THE ENE SIDE OF MAINE.
VFR conditions will prevail areawide during the next 24 hours, except for a period of MVFR ceilings at KHOB and KCNM behind a cold front roughly between 27/14Z to 27/17Z.
THE UPPER CLOSED LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD OUT OF SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO NORTHWESTERN TEXAS THIS MORNING. THE STRONG DYNAMICS PROVIDED BY THE UPPER LOW AND THE CONTINUAL SURGE OF MOISTURE WILL KEEP THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY DOWNPOURS IN THE FORECAST TODAY. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE MUCH COOLER THAN YESTERDAY (UPPER 40S TO MID 50S) UNDER OVERCAST SKIES. THE LOW WILL SLOWLY TRACK ACROSS NORTHWESTERN TEXAS THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND BE OVER NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS/SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA BY THIS EVENING. THE POSITION OF THE LOW AT THIS POINT WILL PLACE THE PANHANDLES ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM AND CAUSE HIGHER PWAT VALUES TO MOVE EASTWARD. THESE LINGERING SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE LOW MOVES INTO THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA.
359 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015 THE REGION CURRENTLY SITS BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND A WEAK TROUGH/STATIONARY FRONT TO THE WEST. THE TROUGH IS FINALLY EXPECTED TO PUSH EAST LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE HIGHEST POPS REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA TONIGHT. THE FAR NORTHWEST CWA MAY DROP INTO THE LOW 30S TONIGHT DUE TO CLEARING SKIES BEHIND THE FRONT.
642 AM EDT MON APR 27 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH INTO THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY.
SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK BEFORE LOW PRESSURE TRACKS SOUTH OF THE AREA.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY.
Also, a cold front will move south across West Central Texas Monday evening to along a San Angelo to Brownwood line by the end of the TAF forecast period. /ISSUED 133 PM CDT Sun Apr 26 2015/ (Tonight and Tomorrow) There is the possibility of severe thunderstorms this afternoon An upper low has closed over New Mexico early this afternoon and will move east over the Panhandle through tonight. Highs tomorrow will be in the low to mid 70s over the northern half of the area and upper 70s to low 80s over the southern half of the area as a frontal boundary sags south through the area.
OFFSHORE FLOW IS SPREADING ACROSS THE EAST SIDE THIS MORNING WITH THE COMBINATION OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE AREA AND A THERMAL TROUGH DEEPENING OB THE COAST. THIS ABRUPT CHANGE IN THE PATTERN COMBINING WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW BRINGING A WARM AIR MASS INTO THE REGION WILL RESULT IN DRAMATICALLY WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS EAST AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEAK FRONT THAT BRINGS PRECIP TO THE COAST MONDAY NIGHT.
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS SE TX TONIGHT AND THIS FEATURE COULD ALSO SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL SHRA/TSRA. THE FRONT WILL USHER IN COOLER TEMPS AND BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS.
454 AM EDT MON APR 27 2015 A TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TODAY.
516 AM EDT MON APR 27 2015 AN UPPER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DRIFT SOUTH ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT.
356 AM CDT Mon Apr 27 2015 The well advertised upper low has formed over NM and is slowly drifting east. A strong cold front has made its way into northern portions of the Permian Basin already this morning. This is a little ahead of schedule so will trend to northerly winds quicker this morning with much cooler conditions expected throughout the day.
341 AM EDT MON APR 27 2015 PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL SHIFT SW INTO THE GULF MAINE TODAY SUPPORTING SHOWER ACTIVITY.
537 AM CDT Mon Apr 27 2015 Chilly and dry northwest flow at the surface has kept temperatures in the lower to middle 40s this morning, with scattered clouds. With prevailing surface ridging for the first part of the week, expect the E/NE winds to persist through at least mid week. At this point widespread frost is not anticipated, as temperatures will be too warm, and winds should stay up around 5 kts, but can't rule out a very isolated area of frost or two near the IA/MO border where sheltering from the wind and low terrain could contribute to temperatures in the lower to middle 30s and some very patchy frost. This dry pattern will likely persist until late this week, before the pattern switches back to a potentially active pattern for the Plains and the Lower Missouri River region.
213 AM PDT MON APR 27 2015 High pressure will build into the region today and linger through Tuesday for a couple of days of nice weather.
SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL WAVES WILL ROTATE AROUND AN UPPER LOW WHICH WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA TODAY. FURTHER SOUTH WHERE MORE CLOUDS ARE LIKELY ALONG WITH A IMPROVING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL UNDERCUT GUIDANCE FAVORING THE COOLER 2M NAM TEMPS. SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST ACROSS OKLAHOMA.
359 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015 AS THE UPPER LOW NEARS THE AREA TODAY WE WILL SEE MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. THIS LOW WILL TRACK DIRECTLY OVER THE AREA TODAY. THE MAIN DEFORMATION ZONE FROM THIS LOW WILL BE LOCATED TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA IN THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. COOL AND DAMP LOWER ATMOSPHERE EARLY TUESDAY ON THE BACK-SIDE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW ALONG THE RED RIVER TO OUR EAST. AIRMASS WILL GRADUALLY DRY LATER TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW PULLS FURTHER TO THE EAST.
UPPER RIDGING WILL GRADUALLY BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITH MID LEVEL TEMPS WARMING AS THE THERMAL TROUGH GETS SHUNTED OFF TOWARDS THE EAST COAST. EXPECT A 4-5 DEGREE WARMUP WITH TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.
A cold front will move south through all area terminals today with gusty northerly winds developing behind it. /ISSUED 356 AM CDT Mon Apr 27 2015/ The well advertised upper low has formed over NM and is slowly drifting east. A strong cold front has made its way into northern portions of the Permian Basin already this morning. This is a little ahead of schedule so will trend to northerly winds quicker this morning with much cooler conditions expected throughout the day.
1130 PM MDT SUN APR 26 2015 UPDATE TO AVIATION HAVE MADE MAINLY MINOR CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST AS THE UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE MOVES AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR AND WARMER. OTHERWISE, SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT, WITH ONLY SCATTERED TO BROKEN THIN HIGH CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE AREA WITH HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE, CURRENTLY CENTERED ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST, HEADS INLAND AND MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND GREAT BASIN ON TUES, BRINGING MOSTLY FAIR SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS. MUCH OF THE REGION WILL MAKE IT INTO THE LOW-TO- MID 60S TOMORROW AND THE UPPER 70S ON TUES.
DRIER HAS ADVECTED IN AT THE LOWER LEVELS. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED EAST OF NEW ENGLAND IS EXPECTED TO MEANDER TO THE WEST AND SOUTH OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 30 HOURS OR SO AND THEN BEGINS TO PUSH EAST LATE IN THE PERIOD. A COUPLE OF DISTURBANCES WILL ROTATE AROUND THIS UPPER LOW DURING THAT TIME. HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL GRADUALLY BUILD SOUTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. CONFIDENCE IN THIS LOW AS DEWPOINTS MAY END UP A TAD HIGH FOR THIS. DEWPOINTS DOWN INTO THE LOWER 30S ARE FORECAST ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK APPEARS RELATIVE COOL AND UNSETTLED AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES EASTWARD FROM THE PLAINS STATES SLOWLY ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.
622 AM EDT MON APR 27 2015 PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL SHIFT SW INTO THE GULF MAINE TODAY SUPPORTING SHOWER ACTIVITY.
CONCUR WITH THE GFS DETERMINISTIC THAT AN UPPER LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY EWD ACRS NRN TX/OK DRG THE PERIOD. AS THE FOREGOING UPPER LOW MOVES EAST OF THE REGION TUESDAY.
TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK RIDGING HOLDING ON OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND MINNESOTA. WITH CUT-OFF LOW STILL SPINNING OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. KUDX RADAR SHOWS LIGHT SHOWERS OVER FAR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEAST WY WITH POSSIBLY SOME LIGHT SNOW OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE BLACK HILLS. CUT-OFF UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE INTO TEXAS AS RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE WEST COAST. NORTHERN STREAM TROF WILL SLIDE ACROSS MONTANA AND ENTER NORTHEAST WYOMING AND NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA LATE IN THE DAY. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S OVER NORTHEAST WY AND THE BLACK HILLS TO NEAR 70 OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD. AS ENERGY CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH AHEAD OF THE NORTHERN STREAM TROF. NORTHERN STREAM TROF WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
THE LOW AT THE KEY WEST AIRPORT HAS DIPPED TO 82 DEGREES AND TO 81 DEGREES AT THE MARATHON AIRPORT.
THERE WAS ALSO AN INVERTED TROUGH OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WYOMING. A LOOP OF THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A DEFORMATION ZONE IN THE SAME AREA WITH THE AXIS OF DILATATION PARALLELING THE FRONT AND INVERTED TROUGH. AS THE UPPER HIGH OVER THE DAKOTAS WEAKENS. A LOBE OF THE UPPER RIDGE SITS OVER NEBRASKA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER THAN THEY WERE YESTERDAY AND ONLY A FEW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT. 00Z DETERMINISTIC DATA CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE THE EASTWARD DEVELOPMENT OF AN UPPER LEVEL TRANSITORY RIDGE ATOP THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH MID-WEEK. UPPER LEVEL ENERGY DROPPING SOUTH FROM MANITOBA WILL SEND A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA.
STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS TO THE ENTIRE AREA TODAY. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE COAST BY TUESDAY.
WE ARE STARTING TO SEE RISING HEIGHTS FROM THE WEST ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG RIDGE ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST. WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN TODAY AS STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. LOOK FOR HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOW 60S TO OUR WEST BUT HOLDING IN THE LOW 50S CLOSE TO THE DAKOTAS BORDER. UPPER RIDGE WILL DOMINATE OUR WX ON TUESDAY AS A WARMING TREND CONTINUES.
THIS BAND HAS PRODUCED LOCAL SNOWFALL RATES OF 2 INCHES PER HOUR AROUND CHEYENNE AROUND MIDNIGHT LAST NIGHT WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION REPORTED AROUND LARAMIE COUNTY AND PORTIONS OF THE CHEYENNE RIDGE ABOVE 5500 FEET. ICY ROADS HAVE BEEN REPORTED ON THE I80 SUMMIT TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING. MODELS SHOW THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE REMAINING NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. BUT OVERCAST SKIES SHOULD REMAIN OVER MOST OF THE AREA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF CARBON AND ALBANY COUNTIES.
546 AM EDT MON APR 27 2015 AN UPPER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DRIFT SOUTH ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT.
EAST FLOW WILL KEEP IT CONSIDERABLY COOLER NEAR THE LAKE AT TIMES.
145 AM EDT MON APR 27 2015 A TROUGH WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND LINGER THROUGH MONDAY.
AS UPPER LOW REMAINS WELL WEST OF THE AREA AND WILL MAKE ONLY SLOW PROGRESS EAST WILL MAINTAIN THE HIGHER PRECIP CHANCES INTO TONIGHT. SOME LINGERING SHOWERS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY BEFORE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. UPPER RIDGING THEN TAKES OVER AND DOMINATES THE WEATHER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH MILD/DRY CONDITIONS.
MODELS CONTINUED TO SHOW A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDING OVER THE REGION THIS WEEK. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW THE RIDGE BREAKING DOWN BY THE WEEKEND FOR A SLIGHT LOWERING IN AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES. A FEW MAINLY LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AND TUESDAY ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS IN THE WAKE OF A DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH WESTERN WASHINGTON THIS MORNING.
AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AS AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM TEXAS.
335 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015 EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A WELL-DEFINED UPPER LOW MEANDERING SLOWLY EAST OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. WITH THE UPPER LOW TRACKING EAST TODAY ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND MAKING LITTLE TO NO NORTHWARD JOG.