Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
304 PM PDT Thu May 20 2021 Widespread rain showers continue this afternoon under a cold upper level low. Snow levels are around 4500 feet this evening through tonight, so higher terrain will likely see trace amounts up to 1 inch of snow in the high Cascades. It is worth noting that the NBM is forecasting a 25% chance for sub freezing temperatures near Fort Jones in the Scott Valley for tonight. By Friday, the upper level low moves south just a tad. However, there is still plenty of vorticity and upper level energy spinning around the low over Oregon and northern California. Again, there is limited potential instability with plenty of upper level energy under the low.
A low pressure system will bring breezy to strong winds to the areas through this evening.
From synopsis, A sprawling high pressure system currently centered near the Mid-Atlantic coastline will dominate the sensible weather elements across the coastal waters of the Florida Keys for the next several days.
With high pressure in control, terminals will be VFR for the taf period.
/issued 237 PM CDT Thu May 20 2021/ SHORT TERM (Now through Friday Night): A robust omega blocking pattern will continue to develop this afternoon and evening over much of the continental US. As this occurs, a weak mid/upper level low will form over the western Gulf of Mexico tonight as strong ridging builds over the eastern CONUS. The low/inverted trough will slowly retrograde over Southern Texas Friday and Friday night. Precipitation chances will highly depend on the exact track of this mid/upper level low.
1014 PM EDT Thu May 20 2021 High pressure will result in dry conditions and above normal temperatures into the weekend.
Amplifying upper air pattern developing with trough in the west and ridge in the east.
Gehring (Issued 200 PM CDT Thu May 20 2021) Tonight through Friday night: A 591 DM ridge centered across the OH Vly is proggd to slowly retrograde towards the central Plains. This will eventually result in the ridge axis being across WI. However before then a wave of mid level energy will temporary flatten the building ridge later Friday into Friday evening.
Models remain consistent building strong SFC/LL high pressure and upper ridges over much of the eastern US.
/issued 214 PM CDT Thu May 20 2021/ The upper level low that brought several days of rainfall to our region has finally departed to the east. These low clouds will quickly dissipate by late Friday morning leading to a pleasant and mostly sunny day with temperatures slightly warmer that what was seen today. The next upper level low will swing into the Great Basin this evening and slowly head towards our area.
750 PM EDT Thu May 20 2021 A sharp upper ridge covering the U.
522 PM MDT Thu May 20 2021 Upper analysis this aftn shows southwesterly flow aloft over the forecast area ahead of an upper low over the western CONUS. Latest surface analysis shows low pressure centered over SW WY/NE UT with a trough/front extending northeastward into SE MT, resulting in breezy to windy southeasterly low level flow across the forecast area. The frontal boundary will move southeastward as a cold front tonight. On Friday, the cold front will stall somewhere east of the Black Hills. 1000-2000J/KG MLCAPE will develop along and to the east of the cold front by afternoon. Relatively strong MLCIN will be an issue, but suspect forcing along cold front will be sufficient for surface based convection, some of which could be strong/severe.
821 PM EDT Thu May 20 2021 High pressure off to the north will continue to bring in an easterly onshore flow for the forecast area tonight. Overnight low temperatures will drop down into the lower 60s for inland areas and in the mid to upper 60s and lower 70s for areas closer to the coastline. Strong high pressure to the north northeast of the region will maintain the breezy onshore pattern through Friday.
A cooler and wetter trend has begun as a cold low pressure system is dropping along California and moving into the Great Basin.
238 PM PDT Thu May 20 2021 A low pressure system dropping down continues to produce strong winds across the region this afternoon. The system will bring considerably cooler temperatures by Friday with scattered showers across the southern Sierra and south central Nevada with light snow accumulations possible above 6000 feet.
203 PM PDT Thu May 20 2021 Weather system moving into region will bring cooler temperatures, foothill and mountain showers along with a few afternoon thunderstorms through this weekend. The higher elevations will see some late season snowfall accumulations. Upper level low will continue to drop south toward the Golden State, bringing with it a wide variety of weather-related impacts and hazards. Recreationalists should anticipate winter-like weather at the higher elevations, along with the potential for dangerous cloud- to-ground lightning.
The ridge axis that has been (and remains) the driving force behind our weather is quite evident on satellite imagery. The lower dewpoint values (and subsequently lower RH), coupled with the faster winds prompted the expansion of the Red Flag Warning already in effect. Gusty, dry easterly flow continues with high pressure off to our north and a relatively strong gradient across the state.
953 PM EDT Thu May 20 2021 High pressure continues over the eastern seaboard and stretches west to cover most of the eastern third of the country. Temperatures at 930 pm ranged from the lower 70s to lower 80s, with dewpoints in the middle 50s to lower 60s and light southeasterly winds. The going forecast is on track for partly cloudy skies through the overnight and lows in the low to middle 60s. A ridge of high pressure is expected to remain in place through the rest of the short term period and into the weekend. Temperatures aloft look to be a little warmer than today which should allow for a few spots to either near or reach 90 degrees for the first time this year.
645 PM EDT Thu May 20 2021 A sharp upper ridge covering the U.
714 PM CDT Thu May 20 2021 Key messages: - More showers and storms expected this afternoon with the greatest precipitation chances from eastern KS into NW MO and the better thunderstorm chances shifted east of the highest precipitation chances. For the weekend, the upper ridge will be sitting over the Mississippi Valley.
522 PM EDT Thu May 20 2021 A sharp upper ridge covering the U.
705 PM EDT Thu May 20 2021 Warm and dry conditions will persist through the weekend with lows in the low to mid 60s and highs in the mid 80s to near 90 degrees. An impressive 590 dam mid level ridge, centered over Ohio and the TN Valley, will continue to dominate into tonight and Friday with warm and dry conditions persisting. The weekend will likely feature more of the same (warm/dry) as the NAM/GFS continue to appear too aggressive in breaking down the ridge and dropping a strung out mid level PV southeast from the Upper Midwest.
Some spotty showers pop up across some of the higher interior mountains the next couple of afternoons, otherwise mainly dry weather will continue through the weekend for the majority of our region. A similar chance of a stray shower around Mendocino National Forest will exist on Friday, but expect less clouds and no spotty showers farther north as the low spins down and tracks farther away from our area. High pressure will build in this weekend, milder temperatures and easing northwest and onshore winds.
701 PM EDT Thu May 20 2021 VFR conditions through the period as the southeast Michigan airspace remains under the influence of expansive high pressure. The lowered heights and meridional moisture plume has been responsible for the rather unimpressive/ragged shower and thunderstorm activity over parts of IA/WI/MN. Locally, Southeast Michigan resides within the internal thermal ridge with warm midlevel temperatures at 12. Absolute vorticity progs support the ridge folding over with a true AVA signal during the afternoon for better compressional warming potential. Think highs tomorrow should be a couple of degrees warmer, but given the environmental temperature profile and the inversion feel there is a very firm upper limit to what highs can achieve.
930 PM EDT Thu May 20 2021 A sharp upper ridge covering the U.
518 PM EDT Thu May 20 2021 High pressure will support summer-like temperatures into Friday. There's a better chance for a few showers and storms this weekend with the passage of a cold front. Upper ridge axis will remain across the area with dry and mild conditions expected Friday night.
High pressure at the surface and aloft will bring dry weather and light winds to all TAF sites. Diegan Chattanooga Airport, TN 59 89 62 91 64 / 0 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 59 86 60 88 63 / 0 0 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 58 88 60 89 61 / 0 0 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 52 88 57 86 59 / 0 0 0 0 0.
1043 PM EDT Thu May 20 2021 High pressure will support summer-like temperatures into Friday. There's a better chance for a few showers and storms this weekend with the passage of a cold front. Isolated showers earlier over the North Country have faded and we should keep a dry night in place as high pressure holds aloft and at the sfc. Upper ridge axis will remain across the area with dry and mild conditions expected Friday night.
837 PM MDT Thu May 20 2021 Moist southerly flow aloft continues across the region with cold northerly flow in the low levels.
Deep layer ridging is anchored in place across eastern CONUS, leading to warmer temps and near zero chances for precip. Expect overnight lows in the low 60s with daytime highs in the upper 80s. With deep layer ridging firmly in place, the pattern doesn't change much over the first half of the short term. The upper-level ridge ends up shifting southward this weekend and will allow winds and wind gusts to settle down after the last few days of strong easterly flow. The ridge begins to break down as a consistent train of troughs impacting the Midwest flattens it out and we transition into a more zonal flow around midweek. Expect lows in the mid to upper 60s with daytime highs in the low to upper 90s.
817 PM EDT Thu May 20 2021 High pressure will support summer-like temperatures into Friday. There's a better chance for a few showers and storms this weekend with the passage of a cold front. Isolated showers earlier over the North Country have faded and we should keep a dry night in place as high pressure holds aloft and at the sfc. Given the lower dwpts inland currently, temps far into the Southern Tier and east of Lake Ontario could dip briefly into the upper 50s. Upper ridge axis will remain across the area with dry and mild conditions expected Friday night.
142 AM EDT Fri May 21 2021 High pressure will result in dry conditions and above normal temperatures into the weekend.
1057 PM MDT Thu May 20 2021 Upper analysis this aftn shows southwesterly flow aloft over the forecast area ahead of an upper low over the western CONUS. Latest surface analysis shows low pressure centered over SW WY/NE UT with a trough/front extending northeastward into SE MT, resulting in breezy to windy southeasterly low level flow across the forecast area. The frontal boundary will move southeastward as a cold front tonight. On Friday, the cold front will stall somewhere east of the Black Hills. 1000-2000J/KG MLCAPE will develop along and to the east of the cold front by afternoon. Relatively strong MLCIN will be an issue, but suspect forcing along cold front will be sufficient for surface based convection, some of which could be strong/severe.
947 PM PDT Thu May 20 2021 An area of low pressure remains near the region the rest of the week and through the weekend. A closed low over Nevada will continue to promote a north- northeast pressure gradient over the region with drier air gradually moving into NE Washington and the N Idaho Panhandle with dewpoints in the upper 20s and 30s.
1138 PM EDT Thu May 20 2021 A sharp upper ridge covering the U.
Tonight Through Saturday A highly pronounced and unseasonably strong upper ridge of high pressure continues to sprawl meridianally from the Ohio Valley to Florida. Strong southerly flow aloft on the west side of the ridge is causing copious amounts of moisture to be shunted northward from the northwestern Gulf of Mexico and a significant moisture plume is highly evident in current water vapor imagery as far north as the Great Lakes region. After tonight, the strong upper ridge to our east will slowly migrate westward toward Arkansas bringing a warming and drying trend to the area. Highs Saturday will range from the mid 70s over the higher terrain to the upper 80s over the southern and eastern portions of the forecast area.
332 AM EDT Fri May 21 2021 High pressure will strengthen over the Carolinas and southern Appalachians through Saturday. High pressure aloft centered will strengthen over the Appalachians while slowly drifting westward through tonight. With the minimal cloud cover, lack of moisture and high pressure in place highs will be near to slightly above normal, in the low to mid 80s. Lows in the low to mid 50s will persist.
1103 PM CDT Thu May 20 2021 Key messages: - More showers and storms expected this afternoon with the greatest precipitation chances from eastern KS into NW MO and the better thunderstorm chances shifted east of the highest precipitation chances. For the weekend, the upper ridge will be sitting over the Mississippi Valley.
downstream of an amplifying upper level trough over the Intermountain West. as the MSLP/H85 height gradient tighten on the eastern periphery of a deepening lee cyclone in Colorado. forcing this afternoon is largely confined to low- level convergence invof the lee trough/cyclone in CO. With southerly flow present throughout the lower-mid troposphere.
350 AM EDT Fri May 21 2021 High pressure will strengthen over the Carolinas and southern Appalachians through Saturday. High pressure aloft centered will strengthen over the Appalachians while slowly drifting westward through tonight. With the minimal cloud cover, lack of moisture and high pressure in place highs will be near to slightly above normal, in the low to mid 80s. Lows in the low to mid 50s will persist.
145 AM EDT Fri May 21 2021 High pressure will remain in place across central NY and northeast PA through Saturday, continuing a very warm but mainly dry pattern.
This morning continues to see showers and isolated thunderstorms along the cold front to the west, and the lifting warm front in the south. Rest of today through tonight, cold front will slowly push eastward.
/issued 214 PM CDT Thu May 20 2021/ The upper level low that brought several days of rainfall to our region has finally departed to the east. These low clouds will quickly dissipate by late Friday morning leading to a pleasant and mostly sunny day with temperatures slightly warmer that what was seen today. The next upper level low will swing into the Great Basin this evening and slowly head towards our area. Nearly meridional flow Friday night into Saturday should keep storms confined to eastern New Mexico and possibly the adjacent areas of the South Plains and Panhandle, although mid level moisture advection across central Texas to western Oklahoma drawn northward on the western side of an upper ridge centered over the Ohio Valley could lead to some thunderstorm development across eastern zones on Saturday.
616 PM CST Fri Dec 31 2021 Northern stream energy diving southeastward through western Canada this afternoon will carve out a trough across the Rockies tonight. At the same time a closed upper low will cross northern Baja and head for the Southern Plains late tonight, with the two features phasing together Saturday across the Central and Southern Plains.
After this morning's freezing and dense fog in southeastern Minnesota continues to disperse and dissipate, we are monitoring another round of freezing conditions advecting from the south. Current reports of freezing drizzle within an area of lower reflectivities are in central Iowa moving to the northeast.
Of particular interesting note is surface LCL heights of only 335m and a right turning hodograph in the low levels. Freezing level around 10. 18Z NAMNest actually bringing scattered showers and thunderstorms from south to north after 9 PM this evening in associated with warm front pushing northward. On Saturday, a cold front will approach.
My inclination is that we will see a flooding threat develop late tonight from Western KY into northwest Tennessee and the Missouri Bootheel and into northeast Arkansas along just south of a warm front. Luckily none of the guidance shows a strong signal for discrete supercells ahead of the approaching cold front and accompanying line of thunderstorms. The Severe threat and flood threat should diminish before midnight as the cold front races across the Midsouth and a colder airmass begins to filter into the area.
/issued 208 AM EST Sat Jan 1 2022/ High pressure surface and aloft will hold over the Florida peninsula today. Widespread early morning which will be locally dense, with the lowest visibilities closest to the coast associated with sea fog which has advected onshore. inducing an area of low pressure to form along the boundary. The low pressure system will deepen as it tracks toward the mid Atlantic coast Sunday night. Associated cold front with band of showers and strong thunderstorms will approach the nature coast after sunset.
Forecast profiles are slightly more supportive of a brief period of freezing rain to go along with the anticipated hour or two of wintry mix, but still believe that this period will be brief and freezing precipitation should not have a significant impact.
/issued 554 PM CST Fri Dec 31 2021/ 00Z 01JAN2022 TAFs New Year, new TAFs! MVFR or close to CIGS can be expected overnight as cloud cover builds in ahead of a cold front. High pressure at the surface and aloft is centered near the Bahamas. Over the Pacific northwest an upper trough is digging southeast while an Arctic airmass drops out of Canada. Low pressure will move across the plains tonight and Saturday which will serve to tighten the pressure gradient and increase the south to southwest flow.
RAP Mesoanalysis shows our broad trough axis centered over Utah/Nevada and this trough axis will continue to push eastward tonight and tomorrow morning. 10-20kt in the lowest 1km AGL. Snowfall amounts in most locations haven't changed much, but we did bump up totals slightly for the lower foothills and immediate adjacent plains. Winds will begin to pick up during the afternoon across the high country with wind chills well below zero. Upper level ridge over the Great Basin will bring warm air advection Sunday and push highs above freezing over northeast Colorado.
208 AM EST Sat Jan 1 2022 High pressure surface and aloft will hold over the Florida peninsula today. Widespread early morning which will be locally dense, with the lowest visibilities closest to the coast associated with sea fog which has advected onshore. inducing an area of low pressure to form along the boundary. The low pressure system will deepen as it tracks toward the mid Atlantic coast Sunday night. Associated cold front with band of showers and strong thunderstorms will approach the nature coast after sunset.
Fog and stratus may become more widespread on Saturday and Sunday as temperatures aloft become warmer.
At the upper levels, long- wave trough is situated over the Rocky Mountains, and will slide east through the central plains over the weekend. By Sunday, mild ridging moves into the northern plains, and temperatures rebound, with highs Sunday reaching back above freezing. Then this evening, a second PV anomaly rides up the upper trough through the plains, increasing fgen overnight for our southern most counties.
Then, an upper level trough will bring a system through mid week for some snow which should have some fairly high snow ratios aka fluffy snow. High pressure with cold air moving in will build winds and eventually seas along the South Shore and the Apostles. Maintaining heavy freezing spray warning for 2 to 4 foot seas in the cold air tonight into Saturday. May even be some katabatic winds developing along the North Shore which poses a threat for small craft advisory conditions, so maintaining advisories though a little less confident Port Wing to Sand Island for both winds and freezing spray given the latest model guidance, but will hold on for now; the other locations look good. Heavy Freezing Spray Warning until 11 AM CST Saturday for LSZ146- 147-150.
Although snow will likely dissipate through the afternoon, a secondary round of light snow will be possible across southern portions of southwest and south central Kansas later this evening as a larger scale upper level trough digging southeast through the Southern Rockies during the day, pivots east into the Texas Panhandle generally after 00Z. Extreme cold air will continue to spread southward through western Kansas today resulting in temperatures holding anywhere from the single digits(F) to possibly the lower/mid teens(F) throughout the day. Tranquil conditions return Sunday and continue into the middle part of the week as weak ridging aloft moves out of the Colorado Rockies into the Western High Plains, then breaking down as it moves farther east into the Central Plains.
1050 PM CST Fri Dec 31 2021 (This evening through Saturday) An upper level low currently over Baja California will weaken and eject northeast this evening, eventually tracking across New Mexico Saturday morning. The much advertised strong cold front will move into the Big Country Saturday afternoon, with a sharp temperature drop expected behind the front, along with gusty north winds of 15 to 20 mph.
Although snow will likely dissipate through the afternoon, a secondary round of light snow will be possible across southern portions of southwest and south central Kansas later this evening as a larger scale upper level trough digging southeast through the Southern Rockies during the day, pivots east into the Texas Panhandle generally after 00Z. Extreme cold air will continue to spread southward through western Kansas today resulting in temperatures holding anywhere from the single digits(F) to possibly the lower/mid teens(F) throughout the day. Ridging building in across the Rockies and high plains will give way to a slight warming trend but not as steep due to snowpack.
1118 PM CST Fri Dec 31 2021 Northern stream energy diving southeastward through western Canada this afternoon will carve out a trough across the Rockies tonight. At the same time a closed upper low will cross northern Baja and head for the Southern Plains late tonight, with the two features phasing together Saturday across the Central and Southern Plains.
- Temperatures in the -20s are expected tonight and Saturday night across central and western Minnesota with some lows possibly in the lower -30s Saturday night. High pressure remains over the area on Sunday with cold temperatures still on tap as highs struggle to get into the upper single digits for all but SW MN where low teens are possible.
A fairly pleasant day ahead of incoming winter weather will end 2021 with highs reaching into the lower 60s across the KC metro and central MO, ranging into the upper 30s farther into northern MO where dense fog and cloud cover has blocked out any additional diurnal heating to bump temps into the 40s. The main driver of forcing will be an upper-level trough that is currently amplifying west of the Rockies. A strong cold front has already begun to dive south into the CWA, just brushing the northern tier of Missouri counties. Morning temps will be at their highest in the lower 30s to upper 20s in central Missouri and into the lower 10s farther north.