Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
A hot and humid day is on tap for the Tennessee Valley as high pressure promotes mostly sunny and dry weather over the area. Given the lack of cloud cover, temperatures should be able to make it well into the mid 90s by this afternoon, with dewpoints remaining in the lower 70s.
1206 PM MDT Wed Jul 28 2021 The latest RAP40 500mb analysis, combined with a mid level water vapor loop, clearly shows the strong upper level ridging in place over the central portion of the country.
The region will be between high pressure to the southeast and weak troughing to the northwest through Thursday. A weak area of low pressure is expected to be to the northeast this evening, and continue through Thursday. This low will affect the flow enough to influence sea breeze interactions.
(This evening through Thursday) Midlevel ridge remains in place, and persistent south/southeast flow will keep dew point temperatures in the low to mid-70's through at least tomorrow.
/NEW/ /This afternoon through Thursday/ A mix of cumulus and mid/upper level clouds continue to spread across the region, keeping the temperatures a degree or two cooler than yesterday's. Some locations across the southwest could stay in the low 90s due to cloudy skies.
133 PM MDT Wed Jul 28 2021 Monsoon moisture working over the top of the ridge this afternoon with plenty of mid level moisture and clouds across the region keeping temperatures much cooler than yesterday. However, do anticipate some showers/storms shifting east across the lower elevations, a risk that is expected to continue through the overnight hours aided by low level jet support into SE MT. Frieders Upper ridge elongates in a SE/NW orientation from the SE US into the Pacific Northwest with the axis off to the southwest of the area.
This activity will continue through this afternoon and again on Thursday thanks to a 500 mb inverted trough across southern Texas, light east winds and ample moisture across the region.
The only respite from these conditions (mainly a few degrees cooler) are expected mostly south of the I-20 corridor in the form of scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon.
Thursday through Thursday night: Cool advection and high pressure take hold. Expecting some lower cloud cover to linger especially for the morning but with a low level thermal trough the clouds may be a bit more stubborn.
916 PM EDT Wed Jul 28 2021 Showers and thunderstorms are likely Thursday with the passage of a cold front. High pressure returns dry and seasonably cool conditions for the first half of the weekend. Lingering cloud cover from the weakening MCS may delay destabilization and convective development in advance of the approaching cold front.
616 PM CDT Wed Jul 28 2021 The forecast concern in the short term will be the cold front moving in through Thursday and resulting thunderstorm chances. An upper level disturbance currently moving into the western Great Lakes Region this afternoon will drive a cold front through north central Nebraska late tonight. The cold front will continue to drop southward on Thursday and reach into southwest Nebraska Thursday afternoon and stall out. Thunderstorm chances will increase overnight across north central Nebraska as the upper ridge breaks down from the Northern Plains.
303 PM MDT Wed Jul 28 2021 Current surface analysis shows a cold front moving slowly south- southeast across northern WY and SD, now south of Gillette and Rapid City and across southwestern SD. Upper level analysis shows high pressure centered over the Central Plains, with jet stream to the north and east of the region. Near seasonable temperatures will finally return for late week and through at least the weekend as the upper high gets pushed south- southeast into the Southern Plains and cold front settles over the Central Plains.
Lows tonight will be in the low to mid 70s. The region will be between high pressure to the southeast and weak troughing to the northwest through Thursday. A weak area of low pressure is expected to be to the northeast this evening, and continue through Thursday. This low will affect the flow enough to influence sea breeze interactions.
758 PM EDT Wed Jul 28 2021 Mid level ridging continues across much of the Gulf of Mexico over night as a trough hangs just off the eastern seaboard. At the surface Atlantic high pressure stretches west to the central Gulf of Mexico. The axis of high pressure from the Atlantic resides south of the waters for most of the weekend with southwest to westerly flow with ample moisture for nocturnal coastal convection that transitions onshore in the daytime hours.
/Issued 316 PM CDT Wed Jul 28 2021/ Ridge of high pressure continues to be the dominate feature across the Central and Southern Plains this afternoon. the ridge is progged to remain in control over the region with afternoon temperatures each day close to or a degree or so warmer compared to the day before.
541 PM MDT Wed Jul 28 2021 Current surface analysis shows a cold front moving slowly south- southeast across northern WY and SD, now south of Gillette and Rapid City and across southwestern SD. Upper level analysis shows high pressure centered over the Central Plains, with jet stream to the north and east of the region. Near seasonable temperatures will finally return for late week and through at least the weekend as the upper high gets pushed south- southeast into the Southern Plains and cold front settles over the Central Plains.
Midlevel satellite water vapor analysis shows the high pressure system spinning over the Central Plains. The pattern remains similar for tomorrow with the upper ridge still over the Central Plains and southeast winds aloft.
Carrothers Monsoon moisture working over the top of the ridge this afternoon with plenty of mid level moisture and clouds across the region keeping temperatures much cooler than yesterday. However, do anticipate some showers/storms shifting east across the lower elevations, a risk that is expected to continue through the overnight hours aided by low level jet support into SE MT. Frieders Upper ridge elongates in a SE/NW orientation from the SE US into the Pacific Northwest with the axis off to the southwest of the area.
647 PM CDT Wed Jul 28 2021 Upper level high pressure remains centered over the central Plains with hazy, hot, and humid conditions persisting across the Missouri Ozarks and southeast Kansas this afternoon. As of 3 PM, temperatures ranged from the lower to middle 90s with heat indices in the 99 to 109 range. We have seen some mixing down of drier dew points (lower 70s) along the higher terrain of the Ozark plateau, however most locations remain in the middle to even upper 70s. We will have to keep an eye on our central Missouri counties as there is an outside shot that a shower or storm could drift into the region around sunset as a cold front begins to approach from the north.
956 PM CDT Wed Jul 28 2021 Mid level high pressure centered over nern KS this evening continues to dominate our weather. /Issued 316 PM CDT Wed Jul 28 2021/ Ridge of high pressure continues to be the dominate feature across the Central and Southern Plains this afternoon. the ridge is progged to remain in control over the region with afternoon temperatures each day close to or a degree or so warmer compared to the day before.
619 PM CDT Wed Jul 28 2021 (This evening through Thursday) Midlevel ridge remains in place, and persistent south/southeast flow will keep dew point temperatures in the low to mid-70's through at least tomorrow.
Another day of above normal temperatures can be expected across the region today thanks to a warm airmass over the region and high pressure providing partly sunny skies. A few mesoscale models are showing the low cloud development today and we are seeing some evidence of this over portions of southwest Iowa early this morning. Looking at RAP forecast soundings there is rather low confidence that this low cloud would develop over the local area with very dry air aloft. 5! If you're a fan of warmer weather this time of year there is some bad news. This warmer air aloft won't be realized at the surface thanks to a strong inversion in place and limited mixing.
The low level jet is stronger northwest of this area and the southeast portions of the forecast area should be the limit of the area affected. Normal highs for this time of year are in the lower and mid 30s.
313 AM EST Sun Dec 22 2019 High pressure will remain over the eastern United States through the middle of the week.
Meanwhile sprinkles will also remain possible within the low cloud shield. An area of low pressure is developing in the north gulf, south of the Mississippi Delta.
301 AM EST Sun Dec 22 2019 High pressure will keep control of the weather over PA through the entire upcoming work week.
Upper low will shift southeastward through the period, with moisture wrapping around the center and back into southeast Arkansas, especially during the afternoon and evening hours. 22/00Z Through the next 24 hours, upper low over southeast Oklahoma will shift south and southeast. Over the southeast, expect occasional light rain to persist as the upper low passes tonight and Sunday.
237 AM CST Sun Dec 22 2019 Today will be dry and pleasant (for December standards) as the ridge aloft moves overhead.
1230 AM EST Sun Dec 22 2019 High pressure in control this weekend.
923 PM CST Sat Dec 21 2019 Remains quiet tonight with mostly clear skies and temperatures falling to the low 30s.
High pressure will shift east of Utah later tonight, resulting in increasing southwest flow aloft Sunday and through early in the upcoming week. The upper ridge axis over eastern Utah will exit the state to the east later tonight.
1114 PM CST Sat Dec 21 2019 An upper level low moving across Arkansas today will continue to move east through this evening and overnight. An upper level ridge will push across the plains and the Ozarks to start the work week. By the middle of the week the ridge will shift east and upper level southwesterly flow will be in place over the region.
134 AM EST Sun Dec 22 2019 Quiet weather continues as high pressure slides east through the weekend.
1233 AM EST Sun Dec 22 2019 Radar trends show that precip over central AL is having a difficult time spreading farther north as it encounters dry air through the low and midlevels. Incoming area of low pressure will continue to push closer to our region, which will further saturate our airmass. TRI should stay VFR through the period as they are in the drier air as they are further away from the low to our southwest. Chattanooga Airport, TN 50 45 56 45 67 / 90 90 60 20 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 52 44 56 42 66 / 70 80 50 10 0 Oak Ridge, TN 51 42 57 42 65 / 60 70 40 10 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 53 40 56 40 64 / 30 60 50 20 0.
With near freezing temperatures in north central and southwest Oklahoma, some patchy freezing fog will be possible. Trending toward the cooler NAM for fog impacted areas (especially north central Oklahoma).
Noting that readings yesterday arrived on the warmer side of model guidance, will again lean in this direction and bring highs into upper 40s to lower 50s - or a solid 15 degrees of above average.
124 AM EST Sun Dec 22 2019 High pressure in control this weekend.
208 AM MST Sun Dec 22 2019 WV/IR imagery shows broad mid-to-upper level clouds across much of the western US ahead of deep trough off the CA coast. A ridge axis currently centered over the west-central US along with strong warm air advection will yield anomalously warm temperatures again today. The warmest areas will be the higher elevations above a stout inversion. As such, will continue the High Wind Warning for the northern Black Hills/foothills and have extended the wind advisory until 3PM for the southern foothills. Later this week upper flow begins to break down as upper trough will pivot into the central US around by Christmas Day.
Once a vigorous upper low currently over east Texas skirts eastward along the Gulf Coast, upper heights will rise across the Midwest. Highs on Monday will be in the lower to middle 50s.
Mid level ridging and downslope flow at the surface will lead to another sunny, warm day across the area. Ridging will give way to southwesterly flow aloft tomorrow as an upper trough moves ashore along the coast of CA.
635 AM EST Sun Dec 22 2019 High pressure will remain over the eastern United States through the middle of the week. With high pressure over the region, dry conditions will prevail with little cloud cover and light southwest winds through Monday. The short term begins Monday night with high pressure across the area.
Well today's weather will really put the SUN in SUNday as the upper level low that has been giving us that cloudy weather the past couple of days moves to the east. Expect breezy northerly flow today as we are sandwiched between that exiting system and high pressure building over central Texas. This high pressure will slide over southeast Texas late tonight into Monday continuing the mostly clear skies.
a weak cold front dropping south through the forecast area today will do little to hamper temperatures as the colder air is lagging the front.
The main trough axis associated with this low extends southwest over the northwest Gulf of Mexico and into northeast Mexico. Clear skies and light winds will allow temperatures to fall into upper 30s across the northern Ranchlands to the low to mid 40s across the Rio Grande Valley. High temperatures on Monday will be in the low to mid 70s as light winds and sunny skies continue.
Amounts will likely remain at/below 1" with this, even at ridgetop. We will struggle to get above freezing where inversions hold, which seems to really point toward around Bear Lake and the Cache Valley. Confidence is growing but still not at the highest point, as this is still offshore and not sampled by the models well yet. Amounts at this point are as follows (but definitely subject to change): Trace-2" across the Snake Plain (lower end where downslope occurs), 1-3" across the central mountains and South Hills, and 1-4" across the eastern and southeast highlands with locally higher amounts at ridgetop.
320 AM MST Sun Dec 22 2019 High pressure aloft will continue to allow for dry and stable conditions across the forecast area. The ridge axis is expected to shift to the east of Colorado this afternoon, allowing the flow aloft to transition from westerly to a slightly stronger southwesterly flow this afternoon. The high temperature for Denver is expected to be in the mid 60s, just short of the record high of 70 set back in 1955. Strong southwest flow aloft will prevail Monday as a trough digs south along the California coast and a ridge resides over the Central Plains. High clouds are expected to persist through Monday as Pacific moisture streams over the region at the high levels of the atmosphere. The upper level trough off the California will weaken as it moves inland.
928 AM EST Sun Dec 22 2019 High pressure will remain over the eastern United States through the middle of the week. With high pressure over the region, dry conditions will prevail with little cloud cover and light southwest winds through Monday. The short term begins Monday night with high pressure across the area.
408 AM EST Sun Dec 22 2019 A low pressure system is currently sitting in the Gulf of Mexico with a warm front draped over I-4. As we go throughout the day the warm front will be pushing through the area continuing the cloud cover and on and off rain. However, once we get into south Florida and farther away from the warm front we start to see some favorable severe weather parameters. This includes some deep layer shear and veering winds in the lower levels. This system will start to push away during the day on Monday but some wrap around moisture associated with the low will bring some scattered showers in the afternoon.
A deep long wave trof will evolve across the western U. which will result in the Rockies upper ridge shifting across the MS Valley and the the upper low currently located across extreme eastern TX moving east along the Gulf Coast region and then into the southwest Atlantic.
Today through Monday A ridge of high pressure will build over the region today.
The upper low will move into south Mississippi by this evening with wrap around precipitation continuing over most of the area into the overnight hours. As the upper low continues to move east into the Florida Panhandle, the wrap around precip will begin to become light after midnight and end from west to east early on Monday. High temperatures will be on the cool side on today, only climbing into the low/mid 50s.
346 AM MST Sun Dec 22 2019 WV/IR imagery shows broad mid-to-upper level clouds across much of the western US ahead of deep trough off the CA coast. A ridge axis currently centered over the west-central US along with strong warm air advection will yield anomalously warm temperatures again today. The warmest areas will be the higher elevations above a stout inversion. As such, will continue the High Wind Warning for the northern Black Hills/foothills and have extended the wind advisory until 3PM for the southern foothills. Later this week upper flow begins to break down as upper trough will pivot into the central US around by Christmas Day.
303 AM CST Sun Dec 22 2019 Further warming is on the way today and Monday as upper level ridging moves eastward across the southern High Plains, supported by modest southwesterly downslope low level flow.
Temperatures are below freezing as well, so freezing fog is occurring.
/Issued 446 AM CST Sun Dec 22 2019/ Areas of fog and freezing fog are possible this morning across parts of the far eastern Texas Panhandle based on latest satellite imagery and surface observations just across the state line in Oklahoma. Otherwise, today and Monday will feature a warming trend with highs well into the 60s to perhaps lower 70s in some locations as an upper level ridge of high pressure translates east across the region.
An upper level ridge is allowing very mild air to flow into the central plains for this time of year. We are forecasting highs to be a few degrees warmer than yesterday with just a few high clouds and a light southwesterly wind allowing for highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s across the forecast area. Should start to see increasing clouds late, but not a bad night for December with lows just a few degrees below freezing.
535 AM EST Sun Dec 22 2019 Influence of eastern seaboard high pressure system and persistent southwest flow to bring VFR conditions to all TAF sites through the bulk of the TAF issuance. Noting that readings yesterday arrived on the warmer side of model guidance, will again lean in this direction and bring highs into upper 40s to lower 50s - or a solid 15 degrees of above average. Northern expanse of upper ridging anchored across the plains will nose into the region tonight and Monday. Associated thermal trough - defined by 925 mb temperatures of 12C - will take residence during this time.
Have high temperatures cooler in the upper 50s in eastern sections due to morning fog and stratus, with highs in the upper 60s to 70 from the I-10 corridor north into the Concho Valley. Tonight, with clear skies and south winds 10 mph or less, good radiational cooling conditions will again prevail with lows at or slightly below freezing. (Monday through Sunday) Deep upper trough begins to take shape across the Western US by mid week.
High pressure mainly traverses across the northern tier of the country, so low level flow goes from northerly to easterly, limiting mixing for Monday.
Looking at satellite there was a good deal of melting that took place yesterday, however a few snow patches remain, mostly across portions of the western Sandhills, adjusted highs in that location slightly cooler to account for this. West to southwest winds at the surface up to 850 mb should help to aid in warmer temperatures. Trended temperatures a couple degrees warmer across the south as this area will have sunshine most of the day along with southwesterly winds and 850 temps around 15 to 16 degrees.
513 AM CST Sun Dec 22 2019 /12Z TAFS/ Occasional visibilities down to 1/2 mile in freezing fog and LIFR ceilings at KABI and KBBD through mid morning. Have high temperatures cooler in the upper 50s in eastern sections due to morning fog and stratus, with highs in the upper 60s to 70 from the I-10 corridor north into the Concho Valley. Tonight, with clear skies and south winds 10 mph or less, good radiational cooling conditions will again prevail with lows at or slightly below freezing. (Monday through Sunday) Deep upper trough begins to take shape across the Western US by mid week.
528 AM CST Sun Dec 22 2019 Today will be dry and pleasant (for December standards) as the ridge aloft moves overhead. Cooler air returns to the region late Sunday night into Monday as a cold front moves through. Quiet and cooler conditions are expected to start off the week. Southwesterly flow aloft brings different disturbances over the Plains ahead of the main upper-level trough over the western coast.
609 AM CST Sun Dec 22 2019 Made some adjustments to increase sky cover as models are not picking up on the high clouds. a weak cold front dropping south through the forecast area today will do little to hamper temperatures as the colder air is lagging the front.
Should this happen there is the potential for patchy freezing fog. Any fog, freezing fog, and/or frost should quickly dissipate between 8-9AM. The remainder of today will be sunny with high temperatures in the low 60s across the east to near 70 our west. Weak upper level ridging moving across the region tonight and Monday will maintain dry and mostly clear conditions and allow for cool temperatures again tonight and slightly above average high temperatures Monday.
623 AM EST Sun Dec 22 2019 High pressure in control this weekend. This will lead to warmer nighttime temperatures across the area in the south and cooler temperatures in the north where skies will be more clear. The weather will remain dry throughout the day on Sunday due to high pressure lingering over the area. High pressure then settles into the middle Ohio River Valley and central Appalachians for the remainder of the short term period. High pressure at the surface will continue dry weather for Christmas Day.
Forecast Summary: Mild temperatures are forecast the next few days before cooler air settles into the region, but only dropping highs back toward normal for mid to late week.
/issued 303 AM CST Sun Dec 22 2019/ Further warming is on the way today and Monday as upper level ridging moves eastward across the southern High Plains, supported by modest southwesterly downslope low level flow.
An upper level ridge will build in today with the axis centering over Texas on Monday.
Winds will decrease this evening as high pressure settles in over southeast Texas. Well today's weather will really put the SUN in SUNday as the upper level low that has been giving us that cloudy weather the past couple of days moves to the east. Expect breezy northerly flow today as we are sandwiched between that exiting system and high pressure building over central Texas. This high pressure will slide over southeast Texas late tonight into Monday continuing the mostly clear skies.
Today Through Monday Night A closed upper low currently over far northeast Texas will swing quickly through LA today and on into the FL panhandle by tonight. Wrap-around moisture on the backside of the low will bring greater cloudiness and low chances of showers to the southeast portion of the forecast area today. Clouds and precip chances will diminish tonight as the low moves away from AR and strong high pressure begins to build over the state in the wake of the departed low. Afternoon highs today will generally be somewhat above seasonal averages and hover in the lower to mid 50s.
Current readings are in the middle 40s across the region with dew points in the low to middle 40s. Warmer temperatures look to be here to stay for a while, perhaps for the remainder of the decade, though guidance beyond 7/8 or the last couple of days of the year varies considerably. A cutoff upper level low over Northeast Texas has begun to move south along the Louisiana state line.
However, a weak cold front will bring cooler temperatures to the Hi-Line.