Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW TODAY ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES. WITH THERMAL PROFILES SUGGESTING A POSSIBLE LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/SNOW MIX. LOW CHANCES FOR SNOW LINGER INTO MONDAY AS TROUGH AXIS MOVES TO THE EAST WITH REGION REMAINING UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW. RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS GRADUALLY PUSHES EAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
ALOFT A RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION DELIVERING US SUNNY SKIES. THE RIDGE AXIS ALOFT SHIFTS EAST THIS EVENING AND HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS BEGINS TO FILTER INTO THE REGION. AS A RESULT, OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ONLY FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S NEAR THE COAST WHILE MORE INTERIOR LOCATIONS WILL EXPERIENCE MINIMUMS IN THE LOW 30S AND UPPER 20S.
KEPT IN MENTION OF LIGHT SNOW AND FREEZING DRIZZLE POSSIBILITIES IN THE KEWEENAW AND EASTERN CWA TODAY AND OVERALL. BY 12Z MONDAY THE 500MB RIDGE OVER THE E THIRD OF THE NATION WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT E. AND BEING REPLACED BY A LONGWAVE TROUGH SET UP FROM N CANADA THROUGH THE REST OF THE U. MUCH OF THIS PERIOD WILL BE IMPACTED BY THIS 500MB TROUGH. LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE COULD AGAIN BE A CONCERN MONDAY AFTERNOON- EARLY EVENING OVER MAINLY CENTRAL AND E UPPER MI.
MONDAY DAYTIME REMAINS DRY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES A GOOD 10 TO 20 DEGREES COOLER THAN SUNDAY. BY MONDAY NIGHT ANOTHER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DROP ACROSS CENTRAL NEW MEXICO AND BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SNOW FOR A BETTER CHUNK OF THE PANHANDLES. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF WINDOW WHERE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WESTERN PANHANDLES EARLY ON BUT TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY COOL AND WET-BULB BELOW FREEZING.
UPPER TROUGH NOW MOVING INTO THE WESTERN ROCKIES WILL EXIT ONTO THE PLAINS TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE THAT HAD DEVELOPED ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE WILL GET PUSHED EASTWARD FROM THE ADVANCING TROUGH AND DEVELOP INTO A CLOSED LOW THAT WILL MOVE TO NORTHEAST KANSAS BY DAYBREAK MONDAY. TEMPS WILL DROP BELOW FREEZING TONIGHT AND THIS WILL RESULT IN AREAS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE. THERE COULD STILL BE A FEW HOURS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE OR FREEZING RAIN IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA BEFORE SWITCHING OVER TO SNOW. BUT UNTREATED ROADS COULD BECOME SLICK ESPECIALLY BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEPART TO THE EAST TODAY AND TAKE SNOW SHOWERS WITH IT AS NW FLOW ALOFT BECOMES ESTABLISHED. EVEN AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN TODAY. A TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE EAST SIDE OF THE RIDGE WILL SLIDE IN FROM THE NW LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT. THIS TROUGH WILL SPREAD LIGHT PRECIPITATION INTO MAINLY HARNEY COUNTY. AS THE RIDGE BECOMES FIRMLY ESTABLISHED SUNDAY NIGHT. THE RIDGE WILL USHER IN AN INVERSION THAT WILL LAST INTO THE WEEK. AND ALSO IN THE VALLEYS OF BAKER COUNTY AND IN THE LOWER TREASURE VALLEY.
CONFINED TO THE COOLER LOWEST LAYERS THROUGH ABOUT 5000 FEET AND UNDER A VERY DRY AND STABLE LAYER. KEY WEST EXPERIENCED A VERY CHILLY DAY BEHIND A POWERFUL COLD FRONT.
927 AM CST SUN JAN 24 2016 QUIET WEATHER PATTERN TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL. /ISSUED 328 AM CST SUN JAN 24 2016/ WX MAP SHOWS 1025MB HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER LA/MS. TEMPS IN THE LOWER/MID 30S. HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY RETREAT EAST WITH A SE RETURN FLOW RESUMING ACROSS SE TX. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE MUCH WEAKER AND REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE REGION. MUCH WARMER LOWS EXPECTED MON MORNING. IN THE LOWER 40S C LA TO THE UPPER 50S SE TX. COOLER TEMPS EXPECTED BY TUE AFTERNOON. WITH CLEARING BY WED AS THE HIGH WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR FILTERS ACROSS THE REGION. DML WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST THEN SOUTHEAST TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. WINDS WILL DIMINISH BRIEFLY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST IN THE WAKE OF A POWERFUL MID LATITUDE CYCLONE TRACKING EASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR BLACK ICE REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL EXPECT A CLEARING TREND THROUGH 12-15Z TODAY AS SUBSIDENCE ENVELOPS THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF A POWERFUL MID-LATITUDE CYCLONE PROGRESSING FURTHER OFFSHORE INTO THE ATLANTIC. EXPECT WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY IN ASSOC/W INSOLATION. RANGING FROM THE LOWER/MID 30S NORTH TO UPPER 30S /PERHAPS 40/ IN THE FAR SOUTH WHERE THE LEAST AMOUNT OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION OCCURRED. CLEAR AND COLD UNDER HIGH PRESSURE TONIGHT. HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE LOWER 50S ACROSS THE SOUTH.
403 AM CST SUN JAN 24 2016 FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW TODAY ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES. WITH THERMAL PROFILES SUGGESTING A POSSIBLE LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/SNOW MIX. LOW CHANCES FOR SNOW LINGER INTO MONDAY AS TROUGH AXIS MOVES TO THE EAST WITH REGION REMAINING UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW. RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS GRADUALLY PUSHES EAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
644 AM EST SUN JAN 24 2016 DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR MID WEEK WHICH MAY STALL ALONG THE COAST AND KEEP WEATHER UNSETTLED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE AREA TODAY AND SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKER. AIR MASS QUITE DRY BUT A FEW HIGH CLOUDS POSSIBLE ASSOCIATED WITH FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE TROUGHS. STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING POSSIBLE TONIGHT ALTHOUGH RIDGE AXIS ALONG THE COAST. UPPER RIDGE ALONG THE EAST COAST MONDAY WITH AREA IN WARM ADVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON.
955 AM EST SUN JAN 24 2016 A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION INTO EARLY MONDAY.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SEEMS TO INDICATE THE FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS IS PROGRESSIVE WITH THE EAST COAST STORM LIFTING OFF-SHORE ALLOWING THE NEXT WESTERN TROUGH TO PROGRESS FARTHER INLAND. THE DERIVED GOES PRODUCTS SUGGEST A WEAK SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE TAP AHEAD OF THE TROUGH BUT MOST OF THE MOISTURE IS MOVING IN WITH MAIN SYSTEM. QG PROGS SUGGEST TWO PIECES OF ENERGY IN THIS TROUGH WHILE TO OUR WEST. BEFORE THE SPLIT THE NORTHERN ENERGY WILL FOCUS WITH THE MAIN COLD FRONT TO SUPPLY LIFT TO NORTHWEST COLORADO. THE SNOW WILL THEN BECOME STRICTLY OROGRAPHIC IN NATURE AFTER SUNSET WHEN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND THE HIGH CENTRAL SAWATCH/ELKS WILL BE THE FOCUS.
BUT OVERALL SHOULD BE SEASONALLY MILD WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF FREEZING. THE LOW LEVEL CLOUD DECK HOWEVER. DOES APPEAR TO BE AMPLE ENOUGH FOR SOME PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE TO DEVELOP OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN PRECIPITATION BAND. BUT THE PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE MAY DEVELOP IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS IN THIS AREA. FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY MONDAY MORNING IN THE SOUTHEAST.
With H7 winds nearing 40-45 kt have continued the High Wind Warning for the Guadalupe Mtns.
MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER FOR MONDAY.
/ISSUED 517 AM CST SUN JAN 24 2016/ LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING HAS ALLOWED FOR TEMPS TO FALL TO NEAR AND BELOW THE FREEZING MARK ACROSS MOST OF THE FOUR STATE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES AS TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 50S FOR HIGHS AND MUCH WARMER TEMPS TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER TROF WILL MOVE INTO THE I-35 CORRIDOR BY MONDAY MORNING.
659 AM EST SUN JAN 24 2016 A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION INTO EARLY MONDAY.
SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST AND BEGINS TO INTERACT MORE INTENSELY WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH A FEW CLOUDS POSSIBLE. A FEW MORE CLOUDS TONIGHT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 60S ALONG THE COAST AND 50S INLAND. MUCH WARMER ON MONDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.
611 AM EST SUN JAN 24 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY AS A STRONG STORM SYSTEM MOVES SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA. A WEAK TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH AN ISOLATED SNOW SHOWER POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS.
Deep layer ridging will build in from the west. After a cold start to the day, temperatures will recover into the lower to mid 50s this afternoon under sunny skies.
935 AM EST SUN JAN 24 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY.
COMBINED WITH CONTINUED WAA AND MIXING WITHIN THE LOWEST LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. LOW LEVEL WAA INCREASES TONIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT EXPECTED INTO THE AREA LATER MONDAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT WESTERLY SOMETIME BEFORE MIDDAY MONDAY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND HELP DISPERSE THE STRATUS TO THE EAST. COOLER AIR WILL GRADUALLY SEEP INTO NORTH TEXAS MONDAY NIGHT ON NORTHERLY WINDS HOWEVER. BROADER UPPER TROUGH.
WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. ALLOWING FOR GOOD HEATING AND HIGHS TO CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING IN MOST LOWER ELEVATIONS AREAS. FROM THE MID 30S TO THE LOWER 40S. THOUGH THE HEAVY SNOWPACK WILL LIKELY REMAIN OVER THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 43 26 53 42 / 0 0 0 40 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 39 22 49 38 / 0 0 0 30 OAK RIDGE, TN 39 22 49 38 / 0 0 0 30 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 35 18 48 31 / 0 0 10 20.
TEMPS ARE RISING ABOVE FREEZING AT THE CURRENT HOUR SO FREEZE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. HIGHS TODAY IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S WITH WINDS NNW WINDS NEAR 10 MPH BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN THE LATE AFTN.
Snow levels have drop to around 2500 feet so only the lowest valleys of north central Idaho and northwest Montana should experience a rain/snow mix while the rest of the area will be snow. A ridge of high pressure will begin to build over the area tonight through Monday. This ridge will create valley inversions with the potential for fog and low stratus forming by Monday morning.
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL BE OVER THE REGION BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
THIS SHLD HELP TO ALLOW HIGH TEMPS TO BE ABT 5 TO 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN SAT.
TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT PHASED LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL ADVECT EAST IN THE PERIOD SUPPORTING INCREASING CHANCES FOR SNOW ACROSS THE REGION. SEPARATE VORT CENTERS IN THE TROUGH WILL CONCENTRATE LIFT IN DIFFERENT PORTIONS OF THE FA.
OTHERWISE, A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK BEFORE CHANCES FOR RAIN AND SNOW RETURN THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. OTHERWISE, RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE WEST LATER MONDAY CONTINUING INTO THE WORK WEEK.
604 AM EST SUN JAN 24 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY.
/ISSUED 357 AM EST SUN JAN 24 2016/ MODELS ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A SHORT WAVE RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE CWA TODAY. THIS WILL SHIFT TO OUR EAST AS THE NEXT TROUGH STARTS DIGGING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
443 AM CST SUN JAN 24 2016 THE FORECAST HAS BEEN CORRECTED FOR A CHANCE OF FREEZING DRIZZLE TONIGHT. HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS THE FCST AREA TODAY AND A WEAK COLD FRONT SHOULD DROP THROUGH THE FCST AREA THIS AFTN. THE RAP WAS THE WARMEST MODEL WITH 50S SOUTH BUT THE COLD FRONT AND HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP HIGHS IN THE 40S. ALSO WILL SEE TEMPS AROUND THE FREEZING MARK FOR THE AFTERNOON WHERE STRONGEST WINDS ARE LOCATED.
COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE LOWER MISS VALLEY TODAY AND SETTLES OVER THE AREA TONIGHT PROVIDING A CONTINUATION OF UNSEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS WITH CLEAR SKIES. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND BECOME CALM TONIGHT AS THE HIGH SETTLES OVERHEAD. TEMPS RETURN TO NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE AND SHORT WAVE RIDGING.
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA AFTER 07Z. TODAY WILL BE BREEZY AND WARMER. WENT TOWARDS THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE HIGHS IN MOST LOCATIONS THINKING THE AIR WILL WARM UP RATHER WELL. A COLD FRONT MOVE INTO THE AREA MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND BE NEAR I-44 TOWARDS 6 AM. BRINGING A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR. PREFERRED THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE LOWS AS SURFACE WINDS SHOULD STAY UP. BREEZY AND COOLER CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED.
656 AM EST SUN JAN 24 2016 HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TODAY AND SHIFTS OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT.
715 AM EST SUN JAN 24 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FOR TODAY AND MONDAY.
517 AM CST SUN JAN 24 2016 LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING HAS ALLOWED FOR TEMPS TO FALL TO NEAR AND BELOW THE FREEZING MARK ACROSS MOST OF THE FOUR STATE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES AS TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 50S FOR HIGHS AND MUCH WARMER TEMPS TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER TROF WILL MOVE INTO THE I-35 CORRIDOR BY MONDAY MORNING.
An upper level trough will move into the Central Rockies today then through the Central Plains tonight. An area of low pressure will intensify across southeast Colorado and southwest Kansas today with southerly winds felt across a majority of the CWA through this afternoon. This area of low pressure and associated cold front will slide eastward this evening through tonight shifting winds to more of a northerly direction. As for temperatures, highs today look to range from the lower 40s across north central Kansas to mid 60s across far southwestern Kansas. Lows tonight are progged to range from the mid 20s across north central Kansas to around freezing along the KS/OK border. The upper level trough will move out of the area Monday with a dome of high pressure building into western Kansas behind the aforementioned cold front.
647 AM EST SUN JAN 24 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER AND SLOWLY MODERATING TEMPERATURES THROUGH MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR A QUIET WEATHER DAY.
The synoptic pattern early this morning features the strong trough that brought us our winter storm slowly pushing off the eastern seaboard, with heights building over the Ohio Valley. It appears just enough low-level moisture will be advected north ahead of the cold front associated with this system to foster some light showers, but the moisture is not very deep. The deep snowpack may throw a wrench in temperatures warming and even if surface temps rise above freezing, road temps often lag by a few hours.
947 AM EST SUN JAN 24 2016 AVIATION SECTION UPDATED DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH INDIANA FROM THE SOUTHWEST MONDAY AFTERNOON BRINGING CHANCES FOR RAIN.
354 AM MST SUN JAN 24 2016 AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS NRN CO LATER TODAY THRU THIS EVENING AND THEN EXIT THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. AT LOWER ELEVATIONS THE LOW LVL FLOW WILL BECOME NNW EAST OF THE MTNS LATER THIS AFTN INTO THE EVENING HOURS. MEANWHILE THERE WILL BE SOME MID LVL ASCENT THIS EVENING AS MAIN TROUGH MOVES ACROSS. AFTER MIDNIGHT SHOULD SEE PCPN CHANCES GRADUALLY DECREASE OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE AND PLAINS AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. THERE IS A WEAK UPPER TROUGH TO MOVE ACROSS THE CWA LATER MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AS THE MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS CROSSES THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. CENTRAL ALABAMA WILL GENERALLY BE 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. LOWS WILL DROP TO AROUND FREEZING FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.
541 AM CST SUN JAN 24 2016 Today will see warming temperatures as an upper level ridge slides across the region. Southerly winds will also help bring a warmer air mass into the Ozarks for today and tonight. Afternoon temperatures will climb into the middle to upper 40s across the area with some locations around and south of Joplin reaching into the lower 50s. A weak cold front will approach the Ozarks Monday morning and make its way through the area through the day. Ceilings will then lower late tonight as a low pressure system approaches from the west.
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH A FEW CLOUDS POSSIBLE. A FEW MORE CLOUDS TONIGHT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 60S ALONG THE COAST AND 50S INLAND. MUCH WARMER ON MONDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.
BUT WILL CONTINUE THE HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS UNTIL 4 PM AS THERE COULD BE SOME RESIDUAL WAVE ACTION INTO THIS AFTERNOON.
526 AM CST SUN JAN 24 2016 FOR 12Z TAFS /ISSUED 446 AM CST SUN JAN 24 2016/ THE LONGWAVE PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWS A TROUGH EXITING THE EAST COAST (THIS WAS THE TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR THE EASTERN SNOW STORM). WITH A RIDGE STRETCHING S-N ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES. AND ANOTHER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. A WARMING AND DRY PATTERN WILL TAKE PLACE UNDERNEATH THE ENCROACHING RIDGE FOR TODAY AND MOST OF MONDAY.
325 AM MST SUN JAN 24 2016 SATELLITE IMAGERY SEEMS TO INDICATE THE FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS IS PROGRESSIVE WITH THE EAST COAST STORM LIFTING OFF-SHORE ALLOWING THE NEXT WESTERN TROUGH TO PROGRESS FARTHER INLAND. THE DERIVED GOES PRODUCTS SUGGEST A WEAK SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE TAP AHEAD OF THE TROUGH BUT MOST OF THE MOISTURE IS MOVING IN WITH MAIN SYSTEM. QG PROGS SUGGEST TWO PIECES OF ENERGY IN THIS TROUGH WHILE TO OUR WEST. BEFORE THE SPLIT THE NORTHERN ENERGY WILL FOCUS WITH THE MAIN COLD FRONT TO SUPPLY LIFT TO NORTHWEST COLORADO. THE SNOW WILL THEN BECOME STRICTLY OROGRAPHIC IN NATURE AFTER SUNSET WHEN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND THE HIGH CENTRAL SAWATCH/ELKS WILL BE THE FOCUS.
620 AM EST SUN JAN 24 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST COAST ON MONDAY AS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ADVANCES OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS. INCREASING MIXING TONIGHT WILL YIELD MUCH WARMER MINS AND CONTD DRY AS RTN MSTR TONGUE AHD OF PLAINS LOW HOLDS WELL WEST OF THE AREA. INCREASINGLY SHEARED AND RAPIDLY DAMPENING MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL LIFT ACROSS THE REGION LATE MONDAY. THERE WILL HOWEVER BE A DECENT THETA-E SURGE AHEAD OF THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WITH MODEST 285-290K ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND MIXING RATIOS CLIMBING ABOVE 4 G/KG AT THAT LEVEL. COULD BE A VERY BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING/FROZEN PRECIP RIGHT AT THE ONSET BEFORE BECOMING ALL RAIN BY MONDAY EVENING.
/ISSUED 328 AM CST SUN JAN 24 2016/ WX MAP SHOWS 1025MB HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER LA/MS. TEMPS IN THE LOWER/MID 30S. HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY RETREAT EAST WITH A SE RETURN FLOW RESUMING ACROSS SE TX. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE MUCH WEAKER AND REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE REGION. MUCH WARMER LOWS EXPECTED MON MORNING. IN THE LOWER 40S C LA TO THE UPPER 50S SE TX. COOLER TEMPS EXPECTED BY TUE AFTERNOON. WITH CLEARING BY WED AS THE HIGH WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR FILTERS ACROSS THE REGION. DML WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST THEN SOUTHEAST TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. WINDS WILL DIMINISH BRIEFLY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT.
WHICH WILL LIKELY PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON AS MOISTURE REMAINS STUCK UNDER REMNANTS OF YESTERDAYS SURFACE TROF. IT BECOMES AN INVERTED TROUGH.
/issued 223 PM CDT TUE OCT 6 2015/ We are looking at a very active weather period the next several days for SE NM and W TX as a slow-moving upper low (currently located over AZ) approaches the region from the west, significantly increasing rain chances as well as the potential for flooding/flash flooding.
This will result in a dry forecast and perhaps a slightly cooler airmass than we've seen the past few days. High temps tomorrow should be slightly cooler than today with temps ranging through the upper 70s/lower 80s.
The atmosphere has not changed much, as the high pressure axis to our west only slowly edges eastward. Wild card will be with some altocumulus clouds currently over Wisconsin/Minnesota dropping southeast, which could slow the redevelopment of the low clouds. Another warm day expected Thu with breezy ssw winds by midday Thu giving highs in the lower 80s. MAV guidance even going mid 80s in western CWA from Decatur west but did not go this warm since there will be increasing cloud cover ahead of approaching cold front along with chances of showers and thunderstorms NW half of CWA Thu afternoon, with best chances over the IL river valley. 12Z models similar in sweeping cold front se acorss central IL during Thu night with likely chances of showers and a few thunderstorms.
Weak ridging aloft will keep conds dry overnight into Weds with light winds also expected.
DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ALONG WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH LATE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE CALIFORNIA COAST. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD BACK TO OUR REGION THROUGH THE WEEK ALONG WITH 850 MB TEMPS FORECAST TO RISE 7 TO 10C.
THE MOVEMENT OF THIS RIDGE COMPLEX WESTWARD INTO THE CWA WILL HELP TO CONFINE CHANCES FOR ANY -RW(-TRW FOR WED AFTERNOON)TO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. A WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH ARRIVES INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. TROUGH ARRIVAL IN COMBINATION WITH LIMITED QPF DUE TO BLOCKING RIDGE WILL KEEP POP CHANCES LOW AND CONFINED TO WESTERN ZONES THRU THE DAY TAPERING BY NIGHTFALL. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP DOWN INTO THE U40S WEST TO THE LOW TO MID 50S IN EASTERN ZONES.
A WARM FRONT IS APPROACHING AND SPREADING CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION. THE WARM FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH IF ANY PRECIPITATION OR CENTRAL OREGON. THE WARM FRONT WILL EXIT TO THE NORTH WEDNESDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH PRECIPITATION COMING TO AN END.
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BETWEEN AN UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST U. AND AN UPPER LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST. AT THE SURFACE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WHILE A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE NORTH GULF COAST INTO ALABAMA. A FEW SHOWERS HAVE POPPED UP OVER NORTHERN ALABAMA INVOF THIS TROUGH. TEMPS HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE LOWER AND MID 80S.
ADK THE CENTRAL PLAINS SITS IN THE RIDGE BETWEEN TWO UPPER TROUGHS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHWEST AREAS OF THE CONUS. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS AT THE SURFACE OVER EASTERN KANSAS CAUSING LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE AREA.
1230 AM EDT WED OCT 7 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK LEADING TO DRY CONDITIONS. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN BRIDGED ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. EXPECT CLOUDS WILL MOSTLY DISSIPATE THIS EVENING; HOWEVER, MID CLOUDS WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT DRAWS NEAR. LOWS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE LOWER 40S, THOUGH SOME OF THE USUAL COLD SPOTS WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S. THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTH ACROSS THE STATE ON WEDNESDAY.
This highly spatially variable features will be difficult as best in advance of the wave of warm advection aloft expected later in the overnight.
935 PM EDT TUE OCT 6 2015 LOW PRES TROF SPANNING THE LENGTH OF THE ERN SEABOARD HAS PUSHED INTO S FL WITH A NRLY H100-H85 WIND SURGE IN ITS WAKE. ISOLD SHRAS FORMING OVER THE GULFSTREAM JUST BEHIND THE TROF AXIS DUE TO LOW LVL CONVERGENCE AND LOCAL HEATING. OTHER THAN LCL MID LVL SCT-BKN DECKS ALONG THE COAST S OF THE CAPE IN THE VCNTY OF THE TROF. CONDITIONS UNLIKELY TO IMPROVE OVERNIGHT AS A LARGE CONTINENTAL RIDGE OVER THE LWR/MID MS VALLEY PRESSES EAST AND MAINTAINS A TIGHT PGRAD ACRS THE REGION. WINDS NOT AS STRONG OVER THE TREASURE COAST WATERS AS THE AXIS OF THE TROF WILL MAINTAIN A WEAKER PGRAD IN THE LCL VCNTY.
TEMPERATURES ARE WARMING THROUGH THE 60S AND IN SOME PLACES INTO THE LOW 70S. WINDS ARE LIGHT AND GENERALLY OUT OF THE NORTH UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION. THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA SLOWLY WORKING THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WILL PERMIT SOME COOLER/DRIER AIR TO FILTER DOWN INTO NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUPPORT THE COOLEST FORECAST LOW TEMPS ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST SODAK/WC MINNESOTA TONIGHT WITH SOMEWHAT WARMER READINGS FORECAST FURTHER WEST AND SOUTH AS LIGHT RETURN FLOW WINDS TRY TO GET GOING LATER TONIGHT. MODELS INDICATE SOME FAIRLY STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WINDS DEVELOP WEDNESDAY NIGHT OUT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
ALTHOUGH WE ARE STARTING THE EVENING WITH TEMPERATURES A LITTLE WARMER.
LOWS WILL BE MODULATED BY CLOUD COVER AND OVERALL STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE BLEND AND PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH COOLER LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S NORTH TO MAINLY LOWER 50S ELSEWHERE.
Weak high pressure over the Midwest at the surface will remain in place through tonight. will round the top of the ridge over southwest Canada and dive into the Great Plains Wednesday night.
Low temperatures will be a little warmer than last night as low level moisture/dew-points continue to slowly increase.