Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
/issued 949 PM CDT Wed Aug 16 2017/ Isolated evening convection has ended for the time being but now we begin to look upstream across Oklahoma where a line of convection currently exists along a southwest to northeast oriented cold front.
1026 PM EDT Wed Aug 16 2017 Warm air will surge into our region Thursday ahead of an approaching cold front.
850 mb temperatures in the lower 20s C, supported lows in the 50s overnight. A cold front will cross the area Thursday, but cooler air will hold off until evening, despite northwest winds by afternoon.
949 PM CDT Wed Aug 16 2017 Isolated evening convection has ended for the time being but now we begin to look upstream across Oklahoma where a line of convection currently exists along a southwest to northeast oriented cold front. In addition, a cold front will dip swd into our area early Thursday, bringing shwrs/tstms to several of our sites through the day.
Otherwise, look for lows tonight mainly in the lower to mid 70s and highs tomorrow mainly in the mid 90s.
Otherwise, somewhat cooler/drier NW winds of 15-25 mph will continue this afternoon with highs primarily in the mid 80s. Models prog this return flow to be relatively dry, with surface dewpoints only in the lower to mid 50s.
An upper ridge prevails across the southern U. Later tonight expect showers and thunderstorms to develop ahead of an approaching cold front. The convection that moves into NE AR/Missouri Bootheel later tonight will probably weaken early and then more activity will develop along boundaries and in response to the approaching upper level disturbance and cold front. The airmass will remain very humid as dewpoints may pool ahead of the cold front.
Upper level low pressure system was over eastern SD and northeast NE.
Few clouds from exiting trough have cleared out of the forecast area. Dry conditions noted under influence of high pressure.
Low pressure over the eastern Dakotas will move slowly east tonight. clouds over eastern ND will give way to clearing skies as high pressure builds over the region tonight. Warmer conditions are still in store over the upcoming weekend.
Water vapor loop indicated the upper level low was over southwest MN with the dry slot over southeast MN and southwest WI. Upper low will move into northern WI Thu morning. Upper level low pressure system was over eastern SD and northeast NE.
Drier northwest flow will bring mostly sunny skies on Thursday with isolated showers and thunderstorms confined to the higher elevations, diminishing after sunset.
For Thursday, a cold front will approach and move through the area. However, shear values will be on the lower side. These storms will move out through the overnight hours Thursday night as the cold front moves through. Low temperatures will remain on the warmer side tonight, dropping only into the lower to mid 70s. Lows tomorrow night will be cooler than tonight across mainly southern IN as the somewhat drier air filters in behind the front.
A gradual inland warming trend can be expected through late week as high pressure builds over the region. Temperatures across the region are generally running a few to several degrees warmer compared to this time yesterday as clouds cleared out more quickly and high pressure builds in from the eastern Pacific.
Deep layer ridging and a slight increase in dry air at mid-levels is leading to decreased coverage of convection across our area today (compared to the past few days). After highs mainly in the lower 90s this afternoon, overnight lows are expected to be in the mid-70s inland with upper 70s along the coast.
1010 PM MDT Wed Aug 16 2017 Current watervapor and visible satellite loop shows the upper level trough axis exiting Wyoming to the east early this afternoon as it moves into central South Dakota and Nebraska. Some low clouds and sprinkles are possible across the western Nebraska panhandle through this afternoon before drier and warmer air aloft moves eastward. This warmer air aloft has made it into southeast Wyoming and is capping most of the convection trying to develop across the mountains.
948 PM EDT Wed Aug 16 2017 A deep layered anticyclone centered over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico is pushing north into the southeastern United States, meanwhile a westward moving mid-upper level TUTT axis is nearing the eastern Bahamas. From synopsis, an Atlantic ridge will extend across Central Florida overnight through Thursday night.
As we head through the day tomorrow, a cold front will push east into the Ohio river valley and bring a line of showers and storms across eastern Kentucky through the evening hours. The upper levels will be characterized by multiple long wave troughs suppressing the ridging and upper level high well to the south. The first trough will lightly dig into the Ohio Valley with higher influence toward the Great Lakes.
844 PM MDT Wed Aug 16 2017 Upper low lifting into southwestern MN with cloud shield that had hung over central SD most of the day finally moving eastward, leaving mostly clear skies over western SD. This Evening Through Wednesday A warmer and drier airmass will move over the area for the rest of the week and most of the weekend as near zonal flow develops over the region.
710 PM MDT Wed Aug 16 2017 Quick update to cover showers/thunderstorms moving off the high terrain into Big Horn, S. A cold front will cross the area Thursday, but cooler air will hold off until evening, despite northwest winds by afternoon.
A second area of thunderstorm development will take place across central Kansas along a synoptic cold front. Synoptic scale lift along the front and ahead of an approaching short wave trough in combination with large theta-e differences between the surface and 3 km agl will favor quick upscale growth into line segments and eventually a large line of storms. Skies will then clear from west to east across the area on Thursday as high pressure builds in from the northwest. As we move into the weekend, an upper level ridge begins to build back into the intermountain west. Combined with an increase in moisture, heat index values this weekend will climb into the low to mid 90s with values approaching the mid to upper 90s along and west of Interstate 49.
The upper level ridge is centered east over the Gulf of Mexico and is expected to continue to move westward leading to drier air over our area.
An upper level impulse and weak surface boundary should keep most activity moving to our north, and a building upper ridge will keep activity from growing much around here. Otherwise, expect a muggy night with lows in the lower 70s.
645 PM CDT Wed Aug 16 2017 Widespread rain showers with a few embedded thunderstorms continue to roll over the area this afternoon as mid to upper trough and associated surface boundary moves northeast into the Upper Mississippi Valley. Early this afternoon, the IR satellite imagery showed cooler cloud tops suggesting a weakening/decaying system as it moves northward, with drier and more stable air starting to surge behind it. Highs will be in the 70s along and east of I-29, and in the lower 80s west of I-29.
Latest RAP40 analysis shows the Bermuda Ridge axis draped over central FL.
High pressure will continue to dominate the synoptic weather pattern with a few moderate wind gusts and mostly rain- free conditions. The upper air analysis this morning showed the subtropical ridge over the Gulf pushing into the southern plains. At the surface, high pressure was centered over the Gulf and winds were from the southeast keeping moist air in place. Strong subsidence under the upper ridge will keep the weather dry. The highest values will only be in isolated spots for a hour or two during the afternoon.
Meanwhile, the area of low pressure and associated front that brought the excessive heavy rainfall was pushing east of the area through mid afternoon.
Tonight and Thursday Primary issue during this period is the passage of a deep upper trough and frontal system, and associated precipitation trends and heavy rainfall potential. The forecast area remained under the influence of high pressure over the northern Great Lakes and southeast Ontario, and upper level ridging. On Thursday, the upper level trof will move into the region, and the surface cold/occluded front will track through during the day. Most of the region should see a quarter to a half inch of rain, with the most significant amounts over northern WI, closest to the track of the surface and upper lows.
Despite the proximity of the ridge center having some suppressive influence, diurnally-forced convection is expected through the remainder of this afternoon, and again on Thursday.
523 PM MDT Wed Aug 16 2017 Current watervapor and visible satellite loop shows the upper level trough axis exiting Wyoming to the east early this afternoon as it moves into central South Dakota and Nebraska. Some low clouds and sprinkles are possible across the western Nebraska panhandle through this afternoon before drier and warmer air aloft moves eastward. This warmer air aloft has made it into southeast Wyoming and is capping most of the convection trying to develop across the mountains.
There will be a split trough arrangement with the northern wave extending east through the prairie provinces. The end result should be 15-20kt gusts with the cold front in the afternoon and early evening.
By Thu night, upper low closed off in Great lakes region and frontal zone has moved through. Weak short wave shows up in all operational models, sliding down back side of upper trof and bringing quick chance of more pcpn into central IL Fri night. Spotty showers and thunderstorms are expected tonight ahead of an advancing cold front.
Line of strong to severe storms extends this evening from just south of Kansas City southwest into northwest Oklahoma along a cold front. Thunderstorms are expected to develop perhaps as early as late afternoon ahead of a cold front that will pass through the region overnight tonight.
This Evening Through Wednesday Current surface analysis shows low pressure now over western IA, with showers exiting south central SD. Upper level analysis shows upper trough from eastern SD to western KS. A warmer and drier airmass will move over the area for the rest of the week and most of the weekend as near zonal flow develops over the region.
619 PM CDT Wed Aug 16 2017 Main concern this afternoon involves new convective development as long awaited surface cold front begins moving through the area. Deep-layer shear will continue to increase this afternoon as midlevel speed max associated with main trough axis across the Central Plains also moves east with time. Considering this, along with the ample amounts of buoyancy that appear present, initial development in the form of discrete cells to the west of the KC Metro will support both a large hail and strong wind threat, with activity migrating more towards a linear configuration in response to deep layer shear values remaining largely parallel to the incoming cold frontal boundary.
So lowered the lows a little with the eastern portion of the area having the potential to be cooler.
Thursday onward, the pattern will be dominated by a broad upper ridge currently located across the Gulf Coast, which will slowly build westward across the region.
Current water vapor imagery from GOES-16 showing the mid level trough from central SDak and into western Neb & KS continues to slowly churn to the east. At the current speed, the trough axis should be near the eastern edge of the CWA around sunset. Meanwhile at the surface, low pressure was located about 30 miles NNE of OMA with cold front extending south into northeast KS, and then curving SW into northern OK. Dewpoints in the low to mid 70s ahead of the front, with lower 60s behind the front across our CWA. Given our CWA will still be ahead of the mid level trough axis this afternoon and we will still have modest instability with mu-CAPE values around 1000 J/Kg, expect isolated thunderstorms until this evening when trough moves east and we lose diurnal heating.
Weak qg ascent will occur in the afternoon as short wave trough embedded in the flow aloft brushes across the cwa in the afternoon. Should see improving conditions behind that trough axis. Warmer on Thursday with highs back in the mid 80s. Upper level NW flow returns with the ridge building over the West coast.
A cold front will finally bring an end to the unseasonably warm spell of weather across the central California interior lately. That onshore flow will strengthen today as a Pacific cold front approaches the California coast, so westerly winds through and below the passes on the west side of the valley will remain gusty through this evening and also help kick up some dust along the I-5 corridor. Sunshine today will be dimmed at times by high clouds in advance of this cold front. That cold front will move inland through central California late tonight and usher in a much cooler air mass this weekend.
Expect additional cooling today and Saturday as an upper level trough develops over our region.
The introduction of cooler and drier air aloft and the expected development of breaks in the overcast are all used to develop fairly widespread instability by mid day into the afternoon. The surface and upper upper lows will begin ejecting NE toward the region overnight, continuing the threat for widespread occasional showers.
/issued 336 AM CDT Fri May 5 2017/ Wx map shows intense low pressure at the surface and aloft spiraling across the Eastern U.
/issued 341 AM CDT Fri May 5 2017/ The occluded upper-level cyclone continues to move slowly east across the region early this morning. Rainfall amounts will remain on the low side across most of the CWA, but some areas in northwest TN could pick up another quarter inch. However, a weak cold front is progged to move south into northwest TN by Saturday afternoon, continuing south during the evening hours.
1242 PM EDT Fri May 5 2017 Low pressure over the lower Ohio Valley will slowly move northeast today and then continue to near Lake Ontario Saturday. Another upper level trough will slide southeast out of Canada and merge with this system over the Upper Great Lakes over the weekend. High amplitude ridge over the western half of the lower 48 states will persist through the weekend while deep digging trough will remain over the eastern half of the country.
Winds to quickly subside to 3 to 5 knots after 06/00Z as the atmosphere decouples and high pressure settles across the region. /issued 402 AM CDT Fri May 5 2017/ A strong upper trough over the Southeastern CONUS will continue to move away from the area and towards the Mid-Atlantic states. In its place, an amplified upper ridge axis will gradually become centered over the Plains as the central portions of a developing omega block. This blocking pattern will become well entrenched by Saturday morning and will dominate our weather for the next several days.
High pressure in place across the region resulting in mild and dry weather today.
Strong pressure gradient expected today as large low pressure north of the area and high pressure to our west creates windy conditions.
No significant updates to the TAF forecast as high pressure remains over Deep South Texas through the period. Meanwhile, northwest flow aloft will continue as Deep South Texas remains between deep troughing over the Eastern CONUS with amplified mid level ridging building over the Rockies. This ridge will shift eastward through the period with flow aloft becoming more zonal in nature. Between the high pressure and dearth of any available moisture, rain-free weather and plenty of sunshine can be be expected. although it will be cooler near the coast.
1050 AM EDT Fri May 5 2017 Strong low pressure moving into the Ohio River Valley will reach the Mid-Atlantic States today then lift farther north on Saturday.
1001 AM CDT Fri May 5 2017 At 10 AM, the back edge of the departing upper level low is nearly bisecting the Mid-South, with the cloud edge just east of the Mississippi River. /issued 341 AM CDT Fri May 5 2017/ The occluded upper-level cyclone continues to move slowly east across the region early this morning. Rainfall amounts will remain on the low side across most of the CWA, but some areas in northwest TN could pick up another quarter inch. However, a weak cold front is progged to move south into northwest TN by Saturday afternoon, continuing south during the evening hours.
754 AM EDT Fri May 5 2017 Low pressure will maintain rain chances and colder temperatures through the weekend. Low pressure will continue up the Ohio river valley this morning and is progged to be north of the forecast area by mid/late afternoon. Widespread rain ahead of the low will continue up until mid/late morning when the associated dry slot pivots over the region. Not much change is expected over the weekend as the sharp meridional pattern remains in place and maintains the large upper trough over the forecast area through the period.
623 AM CDT Fri May 5 2017 A deep-layer cyclone over the TN Valley early this morning will gradually evolve into a full-latitude trough across eastern North America, while farther to the west, an amplified ridge will shift from the Interior West to the central part of the nation. The aforementioned, mid-level ridge will remain intact over the Great Plains through the weekend, yielding dry conditions and above normal high temperatures. A mid-level ridge will be maintained through the early to middle part of the upcoming week across the central and southern Plains, downstream from a subtropical-branch upper low meandering from the southwestern U.
1016 AM EDT Fri May 5 2017 The KAMX (Miami) radar is detecting a wide swath of showers with embedded scattered thunderstorms over the extreme southeastern Gulf of Mexico, extending into the Lower Keys and the adjacent nearshore waters. Surface wise, a trough of low pressure is draped from the southwestern portion of the Sunshine State into the western portion of our county warning area, with a weak cold front lagging about 100 miles to the west. A deep cyclonic flow will provide mid and upper level ascent combined with low level forcing associated with an approaching cold front today. Under mostly cloudy skies and precipitation, high temperatures will average in the lower to mid 80s.
For the short term, a weak cold front extends across the southern Prairie Provinces of Canada. Looking aloft a nearly full latitude narrow h500 ridge extends across the central US diverting any precipitation away from the northern plains in the short term. Beneath the ridge a rather modest surface pressure pattern will maintain light winds across the region. High temperatures will be impacted by the backdoor cold front late this afternoon northeast.
/issued 320 AM CDT Fri May 5 2017/ Upper level ridge over the Western U.
747 AM EDT Fri May 5 2017 Aviation An area of low pressure will lift into the Eastern Great Lakes tonight with some lingering light rain for South Central and Southeast Lower Michigan today.
/issued 346 AM CDT Fri May 5 2017/ Northwest flow aloft will continue today as a sharp upper ridge builds over the spine of the Rockies. Surface ridging this morning will be gradually replaced from west to east by a developing lee trough with winds turning southerly on the Caprock while light winds persist in the Rolling Plains. Temperatures will warm another increment today with highs mainly in the lower 80s. Heading into the weekend, a blocky trough-ridge-trough pattern across the lower 48 will keep synoptic features moving relatively slowly.
Given the good mixing conditions in dry air mass, have favored warmer end of guidance, though not quite to the extreme seen in the RAP, which mixes to a little warmer and drier than preferred guidance. With the dry air in place, the frontal passage will largely be marked by a wind shift from west to north, along with a narrow band of mid-level clouds as indicated by many of the high-res models. With the passage of the back door cold front, Saturday will be a little cooler in an easterly low level flow. Still above seasonal norms, but slightly cooler nevertheless.
Broad upper low across the region this hour, with a smaller swirl travelling around that low and crossing the Deep South. Lows tonight will fall into the lower 40s for most locations.
satellite showing large upper level low approaching the coast with a slow moving frontal boundary over the region. Much cooler temperatures today and Saturday as well. A cold front will move through forecast are today and interact with an unstable airmass ahead of the front resulting in scattered to numerous showers in the eastern mountains along with isolated thunderstorms.
1013 AM EDT Fri May 5 2017 Low pressure will maintain rain chances and colder temperatures through the weekend. This should bring the precipitation shield north of the low generally north of the forecast area within the next few hours. Going into tonight, the reorganizing mid-level trough axis remains generally positioned around the WV panhandle. The consensus favors elevated instability remaining ahead of the mid-level trough axis with a fair amount of convective precipitation during the overnight hours. Fries Not much change is expected over the weekend as the sharp meridional pattern remains in place and maintains the large upper trough over the forecast area through the period.
Latest models show low pressure system lifting up the upper ohio valley this afternoon, reaching eastern WV by 7 pm today. Gusty NNW winds of 25-40 mph expected to continue this afternoon with strongest winds over eastern IL closer to strong low pressure system. but most areas will see ample sunshine as temperatures rebound into the lower 60s/upper 50s. a quick wave diving into the main trough will bring a chance for some showers mainly over Indiana.
Saturday will be cooler with showers lingering over the Idaho Panhandle and far eastern Washington.
Also made some slight changes to pops through the day but nothing big, still expecting on and off light showers through the day as the low rotates over the area. Did make some tweaks to hourly temps as NETN and SWVA are running a little warmer due to the current clear skies. Chattanooga Airport, TN 54 46 70 45 / 80 60 40 30 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 57 45 62 44 / 80 70 60 30 Oak Ridge, TN 57 46 62 43 / 80 70 60 30 Tri Cities Airport, TN 63 44 55 41 / 60 80 70 40.
647 AM CDT Fri May 5 2017 Aviation Discussion An anomalously deep upper low located over Tennessee will dominate our weather today. As the upper low moves eastward, a band of wrap-around rain is expected to affect the northern part of the area for the late morning into the afternoon.
This omega block style of setup will keep us positioned beneath an upper ridge with upper lows located to the east and west. We'll remain in deep northerly flow today as the downstream upper low continues to depart to the east. Most areas will see highs in the 80s over the weekend with lows in the 50s and 60s, although some highs in the low 90s are possible in western zones.
634 AM CDT Fri May 5 2017 The relatively quiet pattern will continue for the next several days across the forecast area as both surface and mid/upper level ridging dominate for the next several days. With troughing over the Great Lakes region and northwest flow aloft over the eastern half of Missouri, expect slightly cooler temperatures across central and eastern Missouri than areas further west toward eastern Kansas and western Missouri.
Clear skies, light winds and seasonably cool temperatures were found across the region early this morning as the area was under upper level subsidence northwest of a cutoff upper low over the TN Valley region. As this low opens into a longwave trough over the eastern U. , a deepening trough over the west coast and sharpening ridge in between over the rockies will result in an omega block pattern over the continental U. A weak upper level vort max topping this ridge will dive down across the western Great Lakes tonight, bringing a threat of at least sprinkles into our far eastern counties.
Behind this front temperatures in the inland areas will be significantly cooler today.
A slow moving upper trough will move through the region today through Saturday night. The trough will give mostly cloudy skies with scattered showers.