Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
706 AM CDT Sat Oct 30 2021 For today the two stories are the morning fog and the cold frontal passage. As the sun rises the fog will burn off and we will get our last warmer day with highs in the 50s before the cold front cools us down. For those hoping to catch the aurora Saturday night there will be an area of cloud cover moving across the region associated with the cold front that could obstruct your view. Sunday will be a much cooler day with highs in the 40s. Then a cold front will move through and bring northwest wind gusts of 25 to 30 kts, and MVFR clouds this evening and overnight. Then a cold front will move through and bring northwest wind gusts of 25 to 30 kts, and MVFR clouds this evening and overnight.
648 AM EDT Sat Oct 30 2021 Showers will continue in the forecast today as low pressure tracks to Western Pennsylvania. Dry weather is forecast to return Sunday with high pressure dominating the weather. This slow moving low pressure will continue to result in clouds and periods of rain today. Weak surface trof/front to pivot thru the area Sunday afternoon. Temperatures close to normal with highs from the upper 50s to the lower 60s.
Early this morning a mid level ridge extended from the southern Rockies across the Plains into Minnesota while a mid level trough was located over western Canada. An associated cold front extended from the low southwest into southeast Montana at 07Z. Clear skies allowing good radiational cooling with light to calm winds have seen a few locations cool to freezing at 07Z near the Nebraska border. Warm advection today on the back side of the high and ahead of the advancing frontal boundary will see temperatures warm to around 70 in central Kansas with 60s across the rest of northeast and east central Kansas.
/issued 432 AM CDT Sat Oct 30 2021/ The large upper low that brought rain, wind and well below normal temperatures to the Midsouth was centered over the middle Ohio River valley early this morning. This low level stratus will erode from the west to east today, as drier and warmer air over the southern plains mixes east. With ample sunshine under a weakening upper ridge, Sunday/Halloween should see mild temperatures and light winds. A weak cold frontal passage Sunday evening may drop mid to late evening temps a little more quickly than usual over areas north of I-40. The sunshine of Sunday will give way to increasing mid and high clouds, as a deepening upper level longwave trof over eastern Canada drops heights over much of the central and eastern CONUS.
623 AM CDT Sat Oct 30 2021 High pressure across the Central and Southern Plains this morning will move south and east away from the area today. Meanwhile, a cold front over the Northern Plains is progged to move rapidly south and east approaching the forecast area late in the day. High temperatures this afternoon will climb into the 60s and 70s ahead of the cold front with light southwest winds developing this afternoon. This front will sweep across the region tonight ushering in much cooler air across the area as we move into Sunday. High temperatures will struggle to climb out of the lower 50s for those in central Kansas. Normal highs for late October are in the the low to mid 60s.
AEX, LFT, and ARA could see a few low-level clouds early in the period (from the backend of a broad low pressure system that is continuing to move eastward over the Eastern U.
547 AM MDT Sat Oct 30 2021 08z surface analysis had cold front from central ND to KGCC, sinking southeastward. Feature driven by upper trough from central Canada into the northern Rockies per water vapour loop. Highs will be much cooler today with readings rising little behind cold front per low level cold air advection. Tonight/Sunday, upper trough saunters into the Midwest. Jet streak at base of trough increases to 110kts+ with right entrance region impinging on 800-600mb baroclinic zone in place from southern WY into NE.
632 AM CDT Sat Oct 30 2021 A cold front will move through central and western Nebraska this morning. However the low level wind field will amplify considerably and diurnal heating mixing the boundary layer ahead of the front will help bring strong gusty winds to the surface. Expect notably cooler air behind the front with highs in the low/mid 50s north of Interstate 80 but later timing of frontal passage will allow for low/mid 60s to the south.
636 AM CDT Sat Oct 30 2021 High pressure will build into the state today. Today Through Sunday Night A large upper low pressure system continues over the eastern U. with an upper ridge over the west. The upper ridge will build over Arkansas today and Sunday. High temperatures today will be in the lower 60s to lower 70s and lower 60s to mid 70s Sunday. Lows tonight will be in the low to mid 40s and upper 30s to mid 40s Sunday night.
GWO/GTR/MEI will stay in MVFR the longest today, closer to the low center. An upper level low is slowly drifting towards the southeastern Atlantic seaboard. High temps range from the lower 70s in the west. to the lower 60s in eastern MS. A high pressure will rule over the ArkLaMiss for the beginning half of the period starting this weekend.
Breezy Through This Afternoon, Turning Cooler Tonight. Drier air will begin to filter into the area through the day, as the large low pressure system over the Ohio Valley pivots northeastward into the Mid- Atlantic. Noticeably cooler temperatures expected this afternoon, with highs in the mid-70s north of Titusville/Kissimmee and upper 70s to the south. Tonight, a reinforcing trough passing southward through the local area will work to further dry conditions, ridding us of any lingering shower chances. In addition, temperatures overnight will cool, as winds veer northwesterly, with lows falling into the low to mid-50s.
422 AM CDT Sat Oct 30 2021 An upper level low is slowly drifting towards the southeastern Atlantic seaboard. High temps range from the lower 70s in the west. to the lower 60s in eastern MS. A high pressure will rule over the ArkLaMiss for the beginning half of the period starting this weekend.
Cooler temperatures with most of the area in the low 50s currently. Expect MVFR to occasional IFR cigs and visibilities as the upper low slowly spins toward the east.
413 AM MDT Sat Oct 30 2021 Flat upper level ridge over Colorado is bringing mild temperatures and clear skies this morning. A cold front is moving southward across Wyoming currently. Northeast winds behind the cold front will usher on cooler air. Due to the trough axis placement being so far north, snowfall remains concentrated north of Interstate 70 near the higher elevations.
Highs will range from the low 60s in the east to low 70s in the west this afternoon. /15/ Prior discussion below: An upper level low is slowly drifting towards the southeastern Atlantic seaboard. High temps range from the lower 70s in the west. to the lower 60s in eastern MS. A high pressure will rule over the ArkLaMiss for the beginning half of the period starting this weekend.
The area is on the extreme southwest edge of lower clouds associated with mid level trough. AEX, LFT, and ARA could see a few low-level clouds early in the period (from the backend of a broad low pressure system that is continuing to move eastward over the Eastern U.
424 AM CDT Sat Oct 30 2021 A cold front will move through central and western Nebraska this morning. However the low level wind field will amplify considerably and diurnal heating mixing the boundary layer ahead of the front will help bring strong gusty winds to the surface. Expect notably cooler air behind the front with highs in the low/mid 50s north of Interstate 80 but later timing of frontal passage will allow for low/mid 60s to the south.
647 AM CDT Sat Oct 30 2021 Well-advertised cold front extending from north central North Dakota to northwest South Dakota as of 08Z, followed by gusty northwest winds. HRRR forecast soundings show greater potential of this occurring in the higher elevations of Gregory County, and possibly eastward through the Missouri River Valley, though more uncertain for points farther east.
432 AM CDT Sat Oct 30 2021 The large upper low that brought rain, wind and well below normal temperatures to the Midsouth was centered over the middle Ohio River valley early this morning. This low level stratus will erode from the west to east today, as drier and warmer air over the southern plains mixes east. With ample sunshine under a weakening upper ridge, Sunday/Halloween should see mild temperatures and light winds. A weak cold frontal passage Sunday evening may drop mid to late evening temps a little more quickly than usual over areas north of I-40. The sunshine of Sunday will give way to increasing mid and high clouds, as a deepening upper level longwave trof over eastern Canada drops heights over much of the central and eastern CONUS.
Nearly vertically stacked SFC/upper level lows continue to be the main focus today, but these features will finally be exiting the mid- south early tonight.
As the low moves eastward a brief period of clearing skies is expected tonight into early tomorrow morning.
/This Afternoon/ The morning water vapor imagery depicts that the closed low has reformed its center and is now centered over ECntrl KY, with the low and accompanying trough finally drifting off to the E towards the Mid-Atlantic states. A deeper wedge of drier air is noted slowly spreading E across the Lower MS Valley this morning, with the attendant wrap-around cloud canopy finally exiting most of the region, aside from our Ern most counties in SCntrl AR/NCntrl LA. Otherwise, a chamber of commerce day is expected with wall-to-wall sunshine and strong insolation expected, and more importantly, lighter winds with the more relaxed pressure gradient, and sfc ridging slowly building E across the Srn Plains. This should yield max temps climbing into the lower to mid 70s (near climo) across much of the region, with little if any adjustments needed in the forecast.
252 PM MDT Sat Oct 30 2021 Current surface analysis shows cold front now south and east of the region with gusty winds gradually decreasing in most areas. Upper level analysis shows trough crossing the Northern Plains and south central Canada, with upper jet mostly from eastern MT to ND and northern SD. A colder pattern will develop over the area for the next several days as the upper trough gradually settles across the central US into the Great Lakes region. Disturbances will pass through the back side of the trough, from the northern Rockies into the central Plains, and interact with tighter baroclinic zone that will drift south across the region with time.
Much cooler temperatures for the week ahead. In the wake of this system, a cold front sweeps in late in the day. There is a low chance for a brief shower toward Lake Michigan as well late in the day as the cold front arrives; will offer a silent 10% pop for now.
A cold front has moved through the forecast area. With winds not completely dropping off tonight and some mid level clouds lingering around, not confident enough to drastically lower temperatures here, but we did blend in some of the lower MOS based temperature guidance southwest. A broad upper level trough will remain over the north central and northeast portions of the U. By mid to late in the work week upper level ridging builds over the Northern Plains.
A cold front will continue to move through the area this evening with high pressure building into the area tonight. As for temperatures, lows tonight will range from the lower 40s across west central Kansas to around 40 degrees across south central Kansas. A slight chance of precipitation is also expected as these disturbances move through the area, with a wintry mix possible when the temperature is close to or below freezing.
Northwest flow will persist over the Northern Rockies through the overnight hours tonight, with high pressure sliding southeast from the Canadian Rockies and towards the Northern High Plains. With high pressure sliding across the region, expect winds to remain light and variable through tonight. bridges, decks, etc).
340 PM CDT Sat Oct 30 2021 A cold front will continue to track across northwest Minnesota through the late afternoon with gusty northwest winds persisting across eastern ND and northwest MN during the late afternoon. Patchy mid to high level clouds are possible Sunday morning over Northwest Minnesota, with cloud cover increasing during the afternoon as a secondary cold front pushes down from central Canada.
At 1100 AM EDT the upper level low was located just to the north and northeast of eastern Tennessee.
Highs will be much warmer tomorrow with most of the area reaching the 60s.
An upper low over the eastern Conus moves off, with zonal upper flow setting up over the Southeast. A wrap-around stratus deck created by the exiting upper low will move off tonight.
1253 PM CDT Sat Oct 30 2021 For today the two stories are the morning fog and the cold frontal passage. As the sun rises the fog will burn off and we will get our last warmer day with highs in the 50s before the cold front cools us down. For those hoping to catch the aurora Saturday night there will be an area of cloud cover moving across the region associated with the cold front that could obstruct your view. Sunday will be a much cooler day with highs in the 40s. Cold front is about ready to move into AXN and will sweep across the MPX terminals through this evening.
By tonight, a mid-level ridge will quickly build across the region. This will maintain clear skies overnight as temperatures fall into the lower 40s. Low pressure continues to spin over the Ohio Valley region this morning, bringing additional shower activity to eastern Illinois. Temperatures today will peak just below seasonal averages, as weak upper level ridging starts pushing into the Midwest.
239 PM CDT Sat Oct 30 2021 A cold front will push south across the Panhandles overnight. This blanket of clouds will try to keep temperatures up, but believe the low clouds not happen until very late or even after sunrise, so still think temperatures will still have a chance to reach the 33 to 36 degree range. Sunday will be much cooler behind the front with highs in the mid 50's to the mid 60's.
245 PM EDT Sat Oct 30 2021 Geopotential heights expected to rise this period, as an upper low over the Appalachian region drifts off to the east. Cold advection, and some weak vorticity lobes rotating around the upper low, may result in some widely scattered light showers for the balance of the afternoon and early evening hours. The potential for showers will diminish with time as the upper low pulls away. Short term model data suggest the lower cloud will break up from the west later in the afternoon Sunday, and on into the evening hours, as the inversion breaks up.
1050 AM MDT Sat Oct 30 2021 08z surface analysis had cold front from central ND to KGCC, sinking southeastward. Feature driven by upper trough from central Canada into the northern Rockies per water vapour loop. Highs will be much cooler today with readings rising little behind cold front per low level cold air advection. Tonight/Sunday, upper trough saunters into the Midwest. Jet streak at base of trough increases to 110kts+ with right entrance region impinging on 800-600mb baroclinic zone in place from southern WY into NE.
212 PM MDT Sat Oct 30 2021 Latest upper air analysis show the ridge persisting over the west half of the CONUS. A small scale trough was moving around the periphery of the ridge over the Northern Plains. Satellite shows cloud cover accompanying the small scale trough. At the surface a pre-frontal trough has moved through the forecast area with gusty winds behind it. The cold front is moving through Nebraska with the short wave trough. Tonight the cold front will move through the forecast area. Sunday night a broad upper level short wave trough will move through the forecast area. There could be a brief duration of freezing rain mixed in with the snow as pockets of drier midlevel air move through.
1005 AM CDT Sat Oct 30 2021 (Issued 959 AM CDT Sat Oct 30 2021) A deep band of subsidence lies overhead in the wake of low pressure over the Ohio River Valley. So don't worry, your Halloween decorations shouldn't blow away! Cooler conditions arrive for Halloween as a cold front moves through Sunday morning resulting in highs only in the upper 40s to low 50s.
149 PM CDT Sat Oct 30 2021 An upper low continues to move slowly northeast through WV into PA. For the most part, a strong inversion will keep low clouds in place until better ridging and subsidence arrives on Sunday. High temperatures should rebound nicely into the middle to upper 60s expect for the highest plateau areas with upper 50s to around 60.
Temporary blocking pattern aloft along the coast will become more progressive beginning Sunday. Upper low currently on the southern OR coast will drift slowly east today then be absorbed into a larger eastward-moving Pacific trough on Sunday. The upper low will bring a chance of showers to eastern Oregon today, and a slight chance of showers to western Idaho tonight and Sunday.
Cold front will move into northeast OK after midnight and reach southeast OK/west central AR around 12-15Z.
A weak reinforcing cold front will move through tomorrow night.
As previous forecaster stated, there remains a very narrow window for fog development tonight in this area as latest deterministic and ensembles have very similar timing of a cold front that will move through tonight. On Sunday, northwest to north winds will become gusty with moderate CAA, thus seasonably cool temperatures with highs in the low 50s to low 60s. So with light winds and clear skies temperatures will fall into the low to mid 40s through the evening hours.
Satellite and surface observations are showing the center of high pressure currently over the Victoria Crossroads with not a cloud in the sky. With clear skies expected to continue tomorrow, highs are expected to range within the lower 80 to lower 90s. Low temperatures are expected to remain cool tonight with temperatures ranging from the lower 50s to lower 60s, warming up a few degrees tomorrow night with the slight increase in cloud cover.
Much cooler temperatures for the week ahead. The occluding system with the low centered over Ohio will continue to become cut off by downstream development.
For tonight, do not expect low temps to be quite as cold as this morning thanks to a slight increase in winds around 09-12Z behind a cold front.
1050 AM MDT Sat Oct 30 2021 A cold front is pushing west-southwestward across the plains at his time. Flat upper level ridge over Colorado is bringing mild temperatures and clear skies this morning. A cold front is moving southward across Wyoming currently. Northeast winds behind the cold front will usher on cooler air. Due to the trough axis placement being so far north, snowfall remains concentrated north of Interstate 70 near the higher elevations.
The area is on the extreme southwest edge of lower clouds associated with mid level trough.
253 PM CDT Sat Oct 30 2021 A progressive low amplitude ridge continues its pass east across the region this afternoon.
316 PM EDT Sat Oct 30 2021 Deep low pressure will affect the area until high pressure builds and generally prevails into mid week. The powerful upper low will gradually begin to lift northeast away from the area tonight.
1221 PM CDT Sat Oct 30 2021 A cold front will move through central and western Nebraska this morning. However the low level wind field will amplify considerably and diurnal heating mixing the boundary layer ahead of the front will help bring strong gusty winds to the surface. Expect notably cooler air behind the front with highs in the low/mid 50s north of Interstate 80 but later timing of frontal passage will allow for low/mid 60s to the south.
357 PM CDT Sat Oct 30 2021 (Issued 341 PM CDT Sat Oct 30 2021) Tonight through Sunday night: Lingering cu and stratcu is expected to dissipate through the remaining afternoon hours and evening as a deep cut of subsidence continues to work to eat away at the low level moisture. 500mb ridging will keep overnight temperatures comparatively mild before a cold front moves overhead after midnight and brings winds to northwesterly. Highs will be in the low 50s, although it'll feel colder with the brisk wind. Tomorrow night, winds will back of some but it'll grow cold under the clear skies with lows around 30 and wind chills into the low 20s.
344 PM CDT Sat Oct 30 2021 An extended stretch of drier and much cooler weather will arrive for the coming week.
A few cumulus clouds were trying to materialize across the far eastern forecast area within a more pronounced cyclonic upper flow pattern, but upper level ridging just to the west was tempering the daytime CU development elsewhere. However, this warmer weather will be short-lived. A cold front upstream of the region in northwestern Minnesota cruises southeastward and sweeps through the region tonight. Broad upper-level troughing influences the synoptic environment in the Mississippi River Valley for most of the week.
Before sunrise Sunday winds at HOB will become nw in advance of a cold front (ne winds) which will arrive at MAF/INK around 15Z/Sun. N of the cold front high temps Mon will be 10-15 degrees cooler than today, despite sunny skies.
1258 PM CDT Sat Oct 30 2021 High pressure across the Central and Southern Plains this morning will move south and east away from the area today. Meanwhile, a cold front over the Northern Plains is progged to move rapidly south and east approaching the forecast area late in the day. High temperatures this afternoon will climb into the 60s and 70s ahead of the cold front with light southwest winds developing this afternoon. This front will sweep across the region tonight ushering in much cooler air across the area as we move into Sunday. High temperatures will struggle to climb out of the lower 50s for those in central Kansas. Normal highs for late October are in the the low to mid 60s.
324 PM CDT Sat Oct 30 2021 Key Points: -Cooler than normal conditions expected this week as a series of disturbance introduce cooler air to the region. cold front has worked into northern and central Nebraska with gusts in the 25-35 knot range behind the front.
1214 PM CDT Sat Oct 30 2021 Well-advertised cold front extending from north central North Dakota to northwest South Dakota as of 08Z, followed by gusty northwest winds. HRRR forecast soundings show greater potential of this occurring in the higher elevations of Gregory County, and possibly eastward through the Missouri River Valley, though more uncertain for points farther east.
Settled conditions will continue into tomorrow, though temperatures across the northern half the area will cool down as a result of a cold front moving through the area, along with a period of enhanced cloud cover behind the front. Though a wind shift is expected to occur across the entire area, the cooler air will lag some, so temperatures across the southern zones will likely rival those observed today.
Highs this afternoon will mostly be in the 70s with a few spots reaching the low 80s, while light southwest winds and low humidity prevail beneath sunny skies. With the onset of light southerly flow tonight, lows should be a few degrees warmer, but will still drop into the 40s for most locations. On Sunday, a weak cold front will be oozing southward into North Texas during the daytime.
324 PM EDT Sat Oct 30 2021 Synopsis/Discussion - Brief clearing overnight into Sunday - Light showers possible Sunday - Cold air influx through the week with chance of showers -- Brief clearing overnight into Sunday -- The upper level low will move eastward as a positively tilted ridge builds over the region tonight. This ridge will allow for dry air over the region which will bring clearing skies. The overnight clearing will be short lived as the ridge aloft will give way to a deepening upper level trough. -- Light showers possible Sunday -- An upper level low situated over central Canada will have several short wave troughs associated with it.