Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
But another center of high pressure is expected to move over the region tonight, keeping skies clear, winds calm, and allowing temperatures to once again fall into the single digits to near zero degrees. This will be especially true over the northeastern quadrant of the forecast area where the center of the high should be by tomorrow morning.
Shear axis will move through upper ridge in place over the Rockies bringing continued warm air advection as arctic boundary/lee trough strengthens from central MT into eastern CO. Temperatures will rise overnight over the higher terrain and become steady on the plains given partial coupling of 25-40kt low level jet east of the Black Hills.
High pressure over the southern plains is expected to push east through the Tennessee valley tonight and Sunday.
Aloft, a long wave trough is making its way towards the eastern CONUS, with ridging sharping up across the western states. Skies have cleared out across eastern Kentucky today, as high pressure builds in from the west. Temperatures range from the middle teens in the north, to the lower 20s in the far south. One more short wave trough will rotate through the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley tonight, perhaps allowing for an uptick in low clouds once again across eastern Kentucky. Still, with snow on the ground and high pressure building in the from the west, more widespread single digits look likely. Sunday will feature another mostly sunny day, with highs recovering a few degrees warmer than today, with most places making it to the low to mid 20s.
Temperatures remain in the lower 20s across our northern counties this morning with Haleyville still reporting 18 degrees. Have lowered high temperatures based on latest short range models, with all but our southeast counties staying below freezing, and areas across the north remaining in the upper 20s. As a result, the northern half of the area will be lucky to see temperatures rise above freezing today. Low temperatures should range from the mid teens North to the lower 20s south.
One more day of very cold temperatures (at least for South Texas standards), with freezing temperatures everywhere but near the immediate coast, and that may only be in a few locations. Sunday night temperatures are tricky, with some low temperatures near the coast probably not too far away from the highs on Sunday.
Today will be the last of temperatures well below average for the next several days as winds will shift to southwesterly advecting warmer temperatures into the region.
SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday Night): Northerly low level cold air advection pattern is well entrenched across deep south TX in the wake of a strong cold front that passed by to the south early this morning. The low level pressure gradient remains strong over the region and am expecting turbulent mixing to keep low temperatures in the upper 20s/lower 30s.
Belles A very cold 1040ish MB ridge is expected to drift over the midsouth tonight, thus leading to another chiller. The high is slow to move east on Sunday with another cold winter day expected, albeit milder than today.
The first wave of precipitation is expanding along a warm frontal boundary towards the Eastern Magic Valley this afternoon. Warm air also expends into this area with chance of freezing rain developing during the afternoon and early evening hours from Burley to Pocatello.
Upper air analysis this morning showed a deep trough over the eastern half of the country with a ridge over the west. At the surface, high pressure was centered to our northeast and winds were generally light from the north to northeast. High pressure will continue to dominate during this period and the main forecast challenge will be the temperatures. Highs Sunday will be around 10 degrees warmer than Saturday.
1247 PM EST Sat Jan 7 2017 Low pressure southeast of the area moves off to the east this morning.
A weak front/trough will dissipate as it crosses the region tonight. In its wake another surge of high pressure will overspread the region.
9:00 AM temperatures ranged from the lower to mid 20s over the inland areas and near 30 along the immediate coast. Warming will be slow but the temperatures are expected to reach at or above freezing at all locations by noon; although, there may be a few holdouts at the colder locations in the north until 1:00 PM.
high pressure is centered over eastern SD and will continue to drift southeast overnight. especially in the southeast where the high is in the vicinity. Believe we'll be out of criteria (warmer than -25F wind chill) by 9 AM tomorrow morning. Highs will be relatively warm on Sunday ranging from the middle single digits above zero in the Devils Lake basin to the low to mid teens in the east and south. The upper level trof begins to shift east across Ontario and the upper ridge builds back over the area.
High pressure and clear skies will allow temps to warm up into the mid to upper 20s for most areas.
The thaw has begun today with temperatures finally rising above freezing in some spots as of 2 PM, thanks to abundant sun.
327 PM CST Sat Jan 7 2017 Northwest upper flow continues across the Central Plains as a ridge builds into the Rockies. Little to no snow cover has diminished today as temperatures remained below freezing in the 20s. Sunday will see increasing warm advection through the day as southwest flow develops in the low levels. Highs Sunday will range from around 30 along the Highway 36 corridor to the mid 30s along and south of I-70.
1106 AM CST Sat Jan 7 2017 An upper level ridge continues to move in from the west as an upper trough dominates the East Coast. The arctic ridge will start to move to our east tonight allowing light southeasterly winds to return by daybreak Sunday. The upper level flow will become zonal for the early part of the week before becoming southwesterly by midweek as an upper level low moves into the West Coast.
210 PM EST Sat Jan 7 2017 Arctic high pressure dominates this weekend.
324 PM CST Sat Jan 7 2017 (Tonight and Sunday) Dry northwest flow aloft will prevail across the area the next 24 hours, with upper ridging to our west and an upper trough over the eastern CONUS. At the surface, high pressure currently over the area will move off to the east tonight and Sunday, with a lee trough developing. Tonight will be cold again but temperatures won't be as cold as last night, with lows mainly in the lower 20s.
1940Z temperatures were now above freezing at all locations except the far southwest Texas Panhandle where they were in the upper 20s and lower 30s. The venture above freezing will be a relatively short one as temperatures tumble back down into the teens and lower 20s tonight.
339 PM EST Sat Jan 7 2017 Snow ends this evening as low pressure well southeast of Long Island tracks into the Canadian Maritimes on Sunday.
1241 PM EST Sat Jan 7 2017 A ridge of Arctic high pressure will continue to extend into the region today. A weak trough of low pressure will pass across the Great Lakes tonight.
236 PM EST Sat Jan 7 2017 Low pressure will move northeast from off the Delmarva coast and reach Nova Scotia tonight. Strong high pressure builds into the region tonight through Sunday night.
The exception will be Galveston County where northeasterly winds off of Galveston Bay should keep temperatures at and below freezing but high enough to be over the hard freeze criteria. Temperatures will be slow to warm Sunday morning, but should reach above freezing by around 10:00 AM.
125 PM PST Sat Jan 7 2017 Warmer and dry weather will prevail across Southern California through Sunday as a high pressure ridge aloft deflects the Pacific moisture spigot farther to the north.
Snow showers are possible tonight into Sunday morning with the passing of an upper level disturbance, with most confined to the north and ridges. Added considerably more sunshine to the forecast across Ohio, increasing across the higher terrain of PA/WV/MD where StratoCu development is likely beneath mid level cold pool.
High High pressure will bring mostly clear skies and light winds tonight. Mid and high level clouds will eventually arrive from the west later tomorrow as warm advection increases ahead of an approaching trough.
A band of low clouds are currently oriented from Daniels to Prairie county zones to the east were several degrees below expected while temperatures to the west of this band are experiencing weak downslope and were mildly warmer than anticipated. GAH PREVIOUS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION: A broad upper low extends from the Mid West north into northern Canada and Greenland. There is a trough extension from that out into the Gulf of Alaska. A ridge extends from the Baja north into British Columbia, resulting in northwest flow aloft over Northeast Montana. Today and tonight and Sunday the ridge will dominate, bringing dry conditions and light winds.
Temperatures remain in the lower 20s across our northern counties this morning with Haleyville still reporting 18 degrees. Have lowered high temperatures based on latest short range models, with all but our southeast counties staying below freezing, and areas across the north remaining in the upper 20s.
107 PM EST Sat Jan 7 2017 Low pressure will move across north Florida early this morning and into the Atlantic Ocean later today.
343 PM CST Sat Jan 7 2017 Another bitter night is on tap as strong high pressure continues to build into the Gulf Coast region with very cold and dry air.
Current surface analysis indicates the arctic high pressure system centered over eastern SD this afternoon with northwest flow aloft ovr the Northern Plains.
239 PM CST Sat Jan 7 2017 High pressure at the surface centered over Texas has brought our winds around to a southwesterly direction which will all a warming trend to begin.
1037 AM MST Sat Jan 7 2017 Deep NE Pac upper trough will support downstream ridging into the Northern Plains in the period. This will support a WAA regime over much of the region, esp affecting the higher terrain areas. Cold high pressure is now skirting the region, with a quasi- stationary frontal boundary over the fa separating arctic air from CP air. Deep upper trough will shift east Sunday and support a strong WAA/FGEN response aloft. WAA will begin to affect the high terrain with NE WY and the Black Hills seeing the warmest readings, with rising temps expected tonight. Warmer conds on track for Sunday, with most of NE WY and locations in and around the Black Hills rising above freezing for the first time a long while.
Warmer and dry for Sunday under a high pressure ridge.
351 PM CST Sat Jan 7 2017 North Texas remains under northwest flow aloft with an upper level ridge to our west and a trough to our east.
1133 AM CST Sat Jan 7 2017 High pressure over the region has brought clear skies and light to calm winds overnight. A reinforcing round of high pressure will aid in keeping temperatures cold today. This will allow temperatures to climb above freezing Sunday afternoon.
1124 AM CST Sat Jan 7 2017 Ridge of high pressure extending from central Oklahoma northeast through Missouri into Illinois will drift eastward over the next 24 hours. Light west wind will prevail today as the ridge axis transits into the Ohio Valley. This reinforcing shot of cold air will dump temperatures into the low teens and single digits once again tonight.
1150 AM CST Sat Jan 7 2017 Quiet weather today as high pressure settles over the forecast area. High pressure shifts east tonight with surface flow returning to the southeast then south on Sunday.
This is being caused by a slowly approaching warm front, and will cause light snow tonight through much of tomorrow. Tomorrow, as more warm air moves into the area, some occasional freezing rain or sleet will impact portions of Central Idaho as the warm air overruns an entrenched cold air mass.
/Tonight through Sunday/ Tranquil but cold weather overnight as high pressure settles into the state. The dry polar airmass associated with the high will lead to clear skies overnight and with light winds, plenty of radiational cooling. Ridging dominating over the intermountain west at 500mb and above.
A trough of colder air extends off from here over the Gulf of Alaska. A ridge runs from off the coast of southern British Columbia down to California with a large gradient of northwest flow extending between that and the arctic air over Canada. Northeast Montana lies on the cooler side of this gradient enveloped in modified arctic air. This afternoon through Sunday: A weak meso-ridge in the northwest flow will pass through the area overnight allowing for a slight downsloping component. this will lead to warmer conditions across the area tonight and should keep conditions dry for most of the CWA.
537 AM EST Fri Jan 13 2017 Colder air will be moving into the area today behind a cold front that has exited the North Country. High pressure builds down from Canada tonight and Saturday. colder air continues to move into the area early this morning with cold front now well east of the area. Skies become clear tonight and winds will taper off as high pressure builds into the region. No precipitation is expected tonight or Saturday for that matter with high pressure over the area. A broad dome of high pressure will be cresting aloft leading to quiet sensible weather and mostly clear skies.
Today-Tonight: Upper low is already deepening over central California with SW flow aloft extending out of the plains. Post frontal air mass remains in place and with limited diurnal heating expect highs around or below freezing.
334 AM PST Fri Jan 13 2017 A low pressure system will move from near Point Conception this morning to northern and central Baja Saturday.
The focus for the short term is a closed low moving south just off the California coast. roughly between the low center and jet streak on eastern side of the low.
A low pressure system moving south along the California coast will continue to spread moisture into the region through tonight.
As of 2 AM, the freezing line stretched from Pineville to Branson to Willow Springs and Eminence; for areas along and north of this line, precip is falling as freezing drizzle and freezing rain. All attention will be on the exact progression of the freezing line, which continues to be a tricky forecast. Cold air advection and evaporative cooling should offset a good deal of the latent heat release from the freezing rain, keeping the northward progression of the freezing line on the slow side today. The slow northward progression of the freezing line will continue Saturday and Saturday night.
Surface observations this morning place a cold front along the northwestern border of the JAN CWA. Temperatures for most of the region will once again reach the mid to upper 70's, threatening record highs once again as an upper heights begin to build over the region in response to a strengthening upper ridge over the Gulf. All this thanks to the strengthening southeast CONUS ridge, which will be keeping widespread inclement weather out in the Plains and Mid Mississippi Valley.
A busy day ahead starting with lingering showers from yesterdays cold front which eventually turns into a stationary front and ushers in more precipitation over the region today. Meanwhile cold air from the north funnels down and should pose a freezing rain threat for the northern portions of our forecast area (generally north of I-64) as we transition into Saturday. Issued a Freezing Rain Advisory for this. NAM model soundings in the area are solid freezing rain profiles for at least 10 hours. Have continued freezing rain across the northern third of the CWA to start the period, but temperatures should warm up through Saturday morning -- as a front noses north -- with a transition to rain.
As expected at this range there are some significant differences in the deterministic guidance to the track of the upper-level cyclone and in the thermal fields.
As of 3 AM the cold front has made it down to the TN/AL border and stretches northeastward. The front will not make much more progress over the next 24 hours as upper high to the southeast builds in. Sfc boundary will waffle back and forth this weekend but will eventually lift north of the area before it is kicked out by incoming upper low. The sfc boundary will finally be kicked out ahead of upper low that will eject out of the Baja region.
813 AM EST Fri Jan 13 2017 A strong cold front will cross the region this morning. High pressure will then build across the region through the weekend. A strong cold front will cross the region this morning. High temperatures will occur early today then fall in the wake of the cold front. High pressure will build east toward the region later tonight. High temperatures will occur early today ranging through the 20s to lower 30s north, with upper 30s Bangor and interior Downeast with around 40 to the lower 40s along the Downeast coast. High pressure will crest over the area Saturday then move to the east. A weak area of low pressure will approach from the west and move to the north of the state Saturday night and bring some snow showers.
636 AM EST Fri Jan 13 2017 Colder air will be moving into the area today behind a cold front that has exited the North Country. High pressure builds down from Canada tonight and Saturday. colder air continues to move into the area early this morning with cold front now well east of the area. Skies become clear tonight and winds will taper off as high pressure builds into the region. No precipitation is expected tonight or Saturday for that matter with high pressure over the area. A broad dome of high pressure will be cresting aloft leading to quiet sensible weather and mostly clear skies.
645 AM EST Fri Jan 13 2017 Aviation A large area of high pressure centered over the Upper Mississippi Valley will build eastward into the Great Lakes Region today and tonight. With high pressure mostly in control of our weather in the short term. One wave of low pressure pulls out of the Central Rockies today and weakens as it moves into confluent flow aloft.
Deep layer ridging will bring another mostly sunny and unseasonably warm day to the region. However, onshore flow over cooler shelf waters will keep temps from getting much above 70 degrees at the immediate coast from the Apalachee Bay westward.
Arctic high pressure was centered over Minnesota. The lowest temperatures in ND were over central and eastern ND where temperatures were in the teens and 20s below zero. Over southwestern ND warm advection was taking place with southerly winds of 5 to 15 mph were allowing the low/surface level to mix with the warming aloft.
501 AM CST Fri Jan 13 2017 Cold front continues to slowly seep farther south toward the I-20 corridor of northeast Texas this morning as it corkscrews back to the northeast along I-30.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 67 54 66 51 / 20 20 20 20 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 63 51 63 50 / 20 20 20 20 Oak Ridge, TN 61 50 63 50 / 20 20 20 20 Tri Cities Airport, TN 59 49 60 48 / 30 30 30 30.
Temperatures today a little cooler than normal with varying amounts of high cloudiness in the 500-300 mb layer moving over the region ahead of the developing storm system over southern California. The upper level low that will affect the region will move across the Baja Peninsula Saturday and across northern Mexico Saturday night.
709 AM EST Fri Jan 13 2017 A cold front passed through the region overnight, and was about to stall early this morning as it tried to make its way through TN.
The upper flow pattern will feature a split flow regime into the weekend as a closed low and upper trough presently centered over southern California with the southern stream shifts east and a zonal to northwest upper flow in the northern stream eventually carving out a gradual ridge. This will favor rising heights and warmer temperatures over the next couple of days. This is where cold air will pool beneath an inversion with warmer temperatures reaching the ridge tops.
Could see a bit of an increase in coverage northwest late in the day if cold front to the north drifts toward the area.
410 AM CST Fri Jan 13 2017 At 3 AM, a cold front from just north of Shreveport to Corsicana to Ozone was moving slowly south and is expected to become stationary close to its current position.
Also there is some reasonably good consensus for sub-freezing highs across the entire forecast area today, outside of the outlier WRF-NMM which develops warmer high well above freezing over southwestern section. In additions to the temperatures and timing/northward extend of stratus, the onset of precipitation, at least in light brief periods appears from the 12km WRF and to develop as early as 00 UTC, and more favored in the east or south east, certainly qualifying as freezing drizzle or freezing rain at that time. The greatest threat areas for any light freezing rain will be overnight mainly along the KS/OK line. Highs out in our western counties will may rise above freezing, maybe approaching 40 degrees in the afternoon, however crashing quickly towards evening.
Regarding the wind, the lee-side trough from last night will continue to weaken this morning allowing the pressure gradient at the SFC to continue relaxing. The lee-side trough then strengthens again tonight through Saturday night with an increase in the wind expected once again.
Upper closed low off the west coast continues southward through the day on Friday and Friday night, This pushes a ridge north into western Nebraska. Temperatures fall into the low teens.
The surface freezing line runs from near Miami to just north of Tulsa to Okemah. There is some freezing rain occurring north of that line from Pawnee through Ottawa Counties. Forecast is dependent on placement of surface freezing line and QPF amounts. Within the freezing rain advisory area. light amounts of rain or freezing rain are expected today. Temperatures are also expected to remain in the low 30s. Synoptic scale lift will increase by late Friday evening/Saturday as western upper low approaches the region. This should provide the large scale support for more rain and freezing rain.
Overnight lows the next few nights may drop down to around freezing in the coolest inland valleys.
HRRR and NAM show hourly temperatures slowly falling today, with areas across the northern Big Country north of a Roby to Haskell line flirting with the freezing line by late this morning and then remaining nearly steady into the overnight hours. Will include a mention of rain or freezing rain north of a Roby to Stamford to Throckmorton line for today and tonight.
Models nailed the area of low pressure centered over central California and also location of precipitation over the CWA. The low is still progged to drop southward through the day, dropping into old Mexico by late tonight. Not much advection will take place today at the surface or aloft thanks to the trajectory of the low pressure so no big changes as far as high or low temperatures are concerned. Some residual showers are possible over the Flat Tops and the Park and Gore ranges but amounts look to be on the low side.
910 AM EST Fri Jan 13 2017 KBYX detects widely separated showers over the Lower Keys, as well as over nearshore and offshore waters surrounding the Lower Keys. Temperatures range from the lower 70s in rain cooled areas to the upper 70s elsewhere. In the low levels of the atmosphere, an elongated ridge of high pressure will be located over the southeastern United States this afternoon. In the mid levels of the atmosphere, an area of high pressure will be centered over north Florida today. In the upper levels of the atmosphere, an area of low pressure will be located over Andros Island this afternoon.
1041 hPa high pressure located over east central MN and NW WI this morning lead to temperatures from 4 degrees across the northern CWA to upper teens across the southern CWA. Short term forecast focuses on a quiet day today with the introduction some freezing rain across the very south tonight. Impacts from any freezing rain would be very minor in nature. Regardless, any impacts would be minor if the freezing rain occurs.