Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
518 PM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015 ALOFT: AMPLIFICATION WAS UNDERWAY WITH AN ANOMALOUS /+2 SD/ RIDGE AND SUBTROPICAL HIGH OVER THE WRN USA. THIS TROF WILL ESTABLISH DRY NW FLOW OVER THE PLAINS AS IT DEPARTS TO THE E TONIGHT. THIS HIGH WILL GRADUALLY SINK S AND SETTLE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN IS IN STORE WITH A RIDGE IN THE WEST AND TROUGH TO THE EAST. ALTHOUGH OUR CHANCES FOR RAIN APPEAR SCANT WITH THE STRONG INFLUENCE OF THE WESTERN RIDGE. ESPECIALLY TOWARD MID-LATE WEEK WHEN IMPULSES MOVING INTO THE NORTHWESTERN UNITED STATES HELP BREAK DOWN THE AMPLIFIED RIDGE A BIT.
THE WESTERN US RIDGE HAS ALREADY BEGUN TO AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN MONTANA. TEMPERATURES AT 700MB CONTINUE TO WARM THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE MAIN RIDGE AXIS DRIFTS FARTHER EAST.
HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONABLE WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE LOW 80S AND UPPER 70S THIS AFTERNOON AND LOWS TONIGHT DIPPING INTO THE LOW 60S AND UPPER 50S.
WITH A STRONG UPPER TROUGH JUST TO OUR SOUTHEAST PROVIDING UPPER CYCLONIC FLOW. IN THAT THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES TO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. SUBTLE RIDGING IS NOTED ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY ALONG THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. WENT WITH THE COOLER GUIDANCE VALUES FOR TONIGHT WITH VERY LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES. COOLING OFF A BIT TO THE LOWER 80S ALONG AND EAST OF I 29.
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ENTRENCHED OVER THE BATTLE BORN STATE RESULTING IN TRIPLE DIGIT TEMPERATURES AND ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.
1207 PM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015 FOR 18Z TAFS /ISSUED 1017 AM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015/ TEMPS ARE WARMING NICELY THIS MORNING WITH VALUES ALREADY IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S AND DEW POINTS HOLDING STEADY IN THE LOWER 70S. ANY WHERE IN THE CWA IS FAIR GAME WITH HIGH INSTABILITY AND BOUNDARIES MOVING IN AS WELL AS DISCRETE CELLS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT STRETCHING THROUGH THE MIDWEST. MORE WIDESPREAD TSRA ACTIVITY IS ANTICIPATED AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
242 PM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015 COLD FRONT MAKING PROGRESS SLOWLY SOUTH THIS AFTN WITH SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL CONTINUE TO BRING DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE CENTRAL CA INTERIOR THROUGH TODAY.
SFC COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED WELL SOUTH OF THE TERMINAL SITES WITH NORTH WINDS IN ITS WAKE. A COLD FRONT PUSHED THROUGH THE TAF SITES. /ISSUED 440 AM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015/ COLD FRONT HAS PASSED THROUGH THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE. COLD FRONT SHOULD LIE ACROSS SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. RICH MOISTURE IS LIFTED ALONG AND NEAR THE COLD FRONT WITH UPPER SUPPORT FROM MODEST CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION IN NORTHWEST FLOW. WHERE MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW BEHIND COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED.
AFTERNOON AMBIENT TEMPERATURES ACHIEVING THE LOWER 90S. MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES TO WEAKEN DOWNSTREAM OF LOWERING CENTRAL PLAINS HEIGHTS. WEAK TROUGHING DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL PLAIN STATES AS WESTERN U. RIDGING AMPLIFIES NORTHWARD INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
514 PM EDT FRI JUN 26 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES INTO THE AREA TONIGHT. THE LOW WILL SLOWLY CONTINUE NORTHEAST SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
317 PM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015 AN AMPLIFYING UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS THE LOWER 48 WILL FEATURE A DIGGING TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE COUNTRY EARLY IN THE FORECAST PERIOD WHILE A RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS PATTERN CHANGE WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT DEEP INTO THE SOUTH OVER THE WEEKEND.
322 PM CDT Fri Jun 26 2015 A cold front is currently tracking south through the area this afternoon and will continue to track south through the area this afternoon. A cooler air mass will start to spread into the area overnight as lows drop into the lower 60s tonight. Some patchy fog will be possible as moist grounds from the recent rain interacts with the cooler air mass. Cooler conditions will occur on Saturday as highs warm into the middle 70s to near the 80 degree mark under mostly sunny skies.
OVER IA INTO NORTHERN ILL IS CO-LOCATED WITH THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
TEMPS WILL BE A BIT HIGHER IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S. UPPER TROF REMAINS OVER EASTERN U. THRU SUN NIGHT WITH SURFACE TROF OVER SRN GA SUN/SUN NIGHT.
211 PM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015 ANOTHER HOT DAY WITH TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S AND HEAT INDICES ARND 100. FOR NOW WILL NOT INCLUDE ANY PCPN AFTER 00Z SATURDAY NIGHT AS A DRIER/COOLER AIRMASS SPREADS ACROSS THE TN VALLEY.
THE WARM FRONT STILL REMAINS PARKED OVER THE OH RIVER AREA DRAPED ACROSS NORTHERN KY. THE COLD FRONT WILL ACTUALLY BEGIN TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA WITH THE COOLER AIR BEHIND BEING A RATHER UNSEASONAL CHANGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. COOLER TEMPS WILL BE IN PLACE AND MORE SUBSIDENCE AS WELL. WITH A RIDGE HOLDING ACROSS THE WEST AND A TROUGH IN THE EAST.
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND SURGES OF MONSOON MOISTURE ROTATING AROUND THIS RIDGE WILL BE THE DOMINANT WEATHER PATTERN THIS WEEKEND.
WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH BUILDING NORTHWARD OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. MODELS SHOW THIS HIGH SLOWLY DRIFTING NORTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN REGION BY SATURDAY. THE ONLY MINOR FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW STRATUS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS DUE TO UPSLOPE FLOW. TSTORM POTENTIAL WILL GREATLY DEPEND ON THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH. AS THE MIDLEVEL SUBSIDENCE WILL BE TOO GREAT FOR DEEP CONVECTION CLOSER TO THE HIGH. DO NOT EXPECT TSTORM DEVELOPMENT ON SATURDAY SINCE ALL MODELS SHOW THE HIGH DRIFTING A LITTLE EASTWARD. SO KEPT POP BELOW 15 PERCENT OUTSIDE OF THE HIGHEST MOUNTAINS.
A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE WAS BUILDING OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS WITH THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM POSITIONED OVER THE GREAT BASIN AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE COOLER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL BE ADVECTED INTO THE AREA WITH DRIER AIR.
A FEW ISOLATED SHWRS THRU EARLY THIS EVE OTHERWISE A DRY WITH ALOFT: AMPLIFICATION WAS UNDERWAY WITH AN ANOMALOUS /+2 SD/ RIDGE AND SUBTROPICAL HIGH OVER THE WRN USA. THIS TROF WILL ESTABLISH DRY NW FLOW OVER THE PLAINS AS IT DEPARTS TO THE E TONIGHT. THIS HIGH WILL GRADUALLY SINK S AND SETTLE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN IS IN STORE WITH A RIDGE IN THE WEST AND TROUGH TO THE EAST. ALTHOUGH OUR CHANCES FOR RAIN APPEAR SCANT WITH THE STRONG INFLUENCE OF THE WESTERN RIDGE. ESPECIALLY TOWARD MID-LATE WEEK WHEN IMPULSES MOVING INTO THE NORTHWESTERN UNITED STATES HELP BREAK DOWN THE AMPLIFIED RIDGE A BIT.
/ISSUED 928 AM EDT FRI JUN 26 2015/ WITH DEEP-LAYER RIDGE WEAKENING TODAY. /ISSUED 324 AM EDT FRI JUN 26 2015/ A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL DEEPEN TODAY INTO SATURDAY.
ON SATURDAY TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE LOWER/MID 80S WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. WITH THE MAIN CHANGE LOOKING TO BE A RETROGRESSION OF THE WESTERN RIDGE AND EASTERN TROUGH. EXCEPT A TRANSITION TOWARD SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPERATURES TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD AS LOWER HEIGHTS WORK INTO THE REGION.
MOST OF THE PRECIP TODAY WILL FALL ALONG THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE PIKES PEAK REGION. THE RIDGE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER UTAH WILL AMPLIFY TODAY AND TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR WINDS OUT OF THE NNW ALOFT. TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH MOST LOCATIONS IN THE L80S.
525 PM EDT FRI JUN 26 2015 THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SCATTERED WELL AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THROUGH TONIGHT. CONVERGENCE INTO THE HEAT TROUGH OVER THE AREA AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM PREVIOUS CONVECTION WILL RESULT IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. SOMEWHAT SHALLOW MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER-RIDGING SHOULD HELP TO LIMIT COVERAGE. A COLD FRONT WILL BE OFF TO THE WEST OF THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY SATURDAY. COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. SATURDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S WEST TO LOWER 70S EAST AS CONVECTION COMES TO AN END BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
255 PM MDT FRI JUN 26 2015 UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL INTENSIFY OVER THE WESTERN STATES THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. COOLER TEMPERATURES BEHIND LAST NIGHT'S COLD FRONT HAVE HELPED TO STABILIZE THE AIRMASS. SO IT WILL BE TOUGH FOR CONVECTION TO FORM OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN TODAY. LOWERED POPS A LITTLE FOR THIS EVENING AND WILL KEEP THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS AND PARK COUNTY THIS EVENING. THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER THE WESTERN WILL PRODUCE WARM AIR ALOFT AND LIKELY CAP CONVECTION OVER THE PLAINS. THERE WILL BE ISOLATED STORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN SATURDAY.
RIDGE WL CONT TO BUILD NWD FM UPR ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. A SERIES OF SHRTWVS DIGGING SEWD DOWNSTREAM FM THE BUILDING RIDGE WL CARVE OUT AN UPR TROF OVER THE ONTARIO/GREAT LAKES RGN. THE AMPLITUDE OF THE ERN TROF MAY ALSO FLUCTUATE. WISCONSIN WILL BE SITTING IN THE AXIS OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND HEIGHTS WILL BE RISING AT THE SFC. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT WARMER THAN TODAY WITH LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST.
412 PM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015 SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS PARTS OF OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE COUNTRY AND INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
A BROAD WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE LIES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS.
351 PM CDT Fri Jun 26 2015 (Tonight and Saturday) A weak cold front will move south into the Big Country tonight. With unstable air and some weak upper support, scattered showers and thunderstorms are developing across the Low Rolling Plains and into the Big Country this afternoon. On Saturday, the weak cold front will progress south through our central and southern counties. The weak cold front tomorrow will serve as a potential focus for additional showers and thunderstorms, across mainly our southeastern counties, tomorrow night.
347 PM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015 THE PANHANDLES HAS BEEN RELATIVELY VOID OF STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT HAVE MOVED SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHWESTERN TEXAS.
WITH DEWPOINTS STILL IN THE LOW 70S IN MANY PLACES. ATTENTION WILL QUICKLY TURN TO THE AFTERNOON AS THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT FINALLY MAKES IT INTO THE REGION. COMBINED WITH BETTER 40-50 KT BULK SHEAR AND SOME COOLER TEMPS ALOFT/LOWER WET-BULB ZERO HGTS. COOLER TEMPS WILL BE IN STORE. A COLD FRONT WILL BE EXITING THE AREA SATURDAY EVENING AND A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER ACROSS THE REGION UNTIL AROUND MIDNIGHT. DRY AND MUCH COOLER AIR WILL PUSH IN.
NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS EXPECTED THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH THE MAIN HIGHLIGHT BEING A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING INTO AND THEN STALLING OVER THE REGION. VIS SAT ALONG WITH REGIONAL RADAR DEPICTS A WEAK OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AHEAD OF THE MAIN COLD FRONT THAT IS SITUATED ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS. THE WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS WITH RAIN AND SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF IT.
EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY IN THE TEXAS PANHANDLE WILL PROGRESS SOUTHWARD.
At the moment, vertical shear profiles indicate veered but pretty weak flow through the lowest levels so still not impressed with the initial supercell threat. However, as we move into the evening hours flow should improve across our northern CWA, increasing the threat for a few supercells, mainly closer to the warm front over central IN. Small hail may not be out of the question given the low freezing leveles and steep low and mid level lapse rates. Highs will be much cooler in the low and mid 70s.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AND THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON. FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY WITH A BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES TO LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. 5 INCHES ALONG WITH A LITTLE MORE SUBSIDENCE UNDER DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL RIDGING. ALL MODELS SHOW A RARE LATE JUNE COLD FRONT MOVING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS ON SATURDAY. AS THE RIDGE ERODES TO THE NORTHWEST.
ALL OF THIS COMES AS AN UPPER TROUGH IS NOW LOCATED ACROSS THE REGION AND TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN ABLE TO WARM INTO THE LOWER 90S. A COLD FRONT SITS ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION AND THIS IS POISED TO DROP SOUTH INTO OUR REGION LATER TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW.
312 PM MDT FRI JUN 26 2015 THE STRENGTHENING GREAT BASIN RIDGE CONTINUES TO FLEX INTO THIS FORECAST AREA WITH HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS.
655 PM EDT FRI JUN 26 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT THEN MOVE EAST SATURDAY.
130 PM EDT FRI JUN 26 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TODAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY.
BUT IT WAS COOLER H7-H5 AT CWPL AND RAP SHOWED THIS COOLING WAS MORE OVER ONTARIO AND QUEBEC VERSUS FARTHER SOUTH OVER THE UPR GREAT LAKES. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVERHEAD TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE STAYS MAIN SFC FEATURE THROUGH SATURDAY AFTN. WITH A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS AND A BIT WARMER H85 TEMPS COMPARED TO TODAY. AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A RIDGE OVER THE WRN CONUS AND A TROUGH FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE NE. HIGH PRESSURE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WILL LEAD TO WINDS STAYING BELOW 20KTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
231 PM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015 UPPER LEVEL SYNOPTIC PATTERN OVER THE CONUS HAS BECOME MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS WITH A RIDGE BUILDING WEST AND A TROUGH DIGGING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA WILL DROP INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA TONIGHT WITH QUIET AND CALM CONDITIONS EXPECTED. AND H85 WAA WILL LEAD TO A MOSTLY CLEAR AND WARMER DAY TOMORROW. STRENGTHENING UPPER HIGH MOVING INTO THE GREAT BASIN AND TROUGH MOVING THROUGH GREAT LAKES INTO NORTHEAST CONUS WILL LEAVE FORECAST AREA IN FAST NORTHWEST FLOW. 850MB TEMPERATURES UNDER THE RIDGE TO THE WEST INCREASE THROUGH THE WEEK AND SPREAD EAST INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA.
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NORTH NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALOFT BUILDS OVER THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.
AS LOW PRESSURE DRIFTS ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS.
THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS STRONG UPPER RIDGING ACROSS THE WRN CONUS WITH NW FLOW ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS. RETURN FLOW WILL BRING WARMER AIR TO THE CWA. WARMER AIR ALOFT WILL KEEP ANY CONVECTION FROM DEVELOPING.
PATTERN WILL NOT CHANGE TOO MUCH THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH IA IN TRANSITION REGION BETWEEN SWRN CONUS RIDGE AND GREAT LAKES TROUGH. FORCING WITH THE SHORT WAVE WILL BE FAIRLY DEEP WITH COLD FRONT ALOFT NOTED IN THE THETA-E CROSS SECTIONS.
220 PM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015 EARLY MORNING STORMS ARE FINALLY DISSIPATING ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN WITH NEW CONVECTION FIRING IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. A BOUNDARY LEFT OVER FROM EARLIER STORMS IS MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PERMIAN BASIN WITH A COLD FRONT NEARING LUBBUCK. THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY WILL BE ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE THE FRONT WILL LIKELY STALL OUT.
236 PM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015 COLD FRONT CURRENTLY NEAR THE INTERSTATE 44 CORRIDOR WITH THE STRONGER CONVECTION DISPLACED EVEN FURTHER SOUTHWARD FROM FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. WITH THE PASSING COLD FRONT MARKING THE END OF THE POTENTIAL.
THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WAS CURRENTLY OVER NORTHEAST KS. AT THE SURFACE, THE COLD FRONT IS NOW ACROSS CENTRAL OK AND NORTHERN AR WITH THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER WESTERN SD. THINK THAT THE ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL FALL APART THIS AFTERNOON AS TEMPS BEGIN COOLING AND THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS PASSES EAST OF THE AREA. FORECAST HIGHS ARE IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S TRENDING WARMER A DEGREE OR TWO TOWARDS THE MOS GUIDANCE CONSENSUS.
A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN MOVING THROUGH THE REGION AND WILL BRING SHWRS/TSTMS ALONG WITH IT. AS THE COLD FRONT MAKES ITS WAY SWD. /ISSUED 1136 AM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015/ MINOR CHANGES TO THE HIGHS FOR TODAY FOR PARTS OF NORTHEAST TEXAS AND ADJUSTMENTS TO THE WINDS AND DEW POINTS.
THOUGH THIS WILL CHANGE THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARMER THAN SEASONAL AVERAGES. BUT THE CLOUD COVER SHOULD ALLOW PORTIONS OF THE NATURE COAST TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER.
1017 AM PST WED NOV 18 2015 Gusty winds will decrease today as high pressure builds over the Inland Northwest with drier and cooler conditions. Dry but cooler weather will prevail for the end of the work week into the weekend. The intense low pressure system that brought high winds to the region has moved well east of the region leaving a much quieter day for the Inland NW. JW 18Z TAFS: A cold front has moved well east of the area with post- frontal west-southwest winds of 5-15 mph with locally higher gusts expected today.
AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT WINDS WILL TURN OUT OF THE NORTH AGAIN.
325 PM CST WED NOV 18 2015 STRONG PACIFIC COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH IS OFF TO THE SW AND MODELS KEEPS WINDS AROUND 10 MPH. TOMORROW THE HIGH WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH WITH WINDS SLOWING TURNING MORE TO THE WEST DURING THE DAY. COOLER AIR IN PLACE WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO GET INTO THE LOWER 40S.
203 PM CST WED NOV 18 2015 An upper level trough is currently spreading east across the central U. Gusty southwesterly winds and cooler conditions are occurring across the area this afternoon as the system passes through.
1250 PM EST WED NOV 18 2015 HYDRO A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN AND WINDY CONDITIONS TODAY.
248 PM EST WED NOV 18 2015 A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW IS TRAVELING QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WITH A TRAILING TROUGH EXTENDING TROUGH THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. THE SURFACE FRONT MOVING AHEAD OF THE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY PASSING OVER THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE. A FEW SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING IN CLOUD STREETS HEADING NORTHWEST AROUND THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF A STRONG AND LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.
COLD FRONT MOVING EAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST AND RAINS ENDING. COOLER TONIGHT WITH DRIER HIGH PRESSURE BEGINNING TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. ALSO MAINTAINED THE HIGH SURF AND ELEVATED RIP CURRENT RISKS ALONG GULF BEACHES THROUGH 6PM.
1048 AM CST WED NOV 18 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER SE TEXAS TODAY AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER COULD SEE SOME BRIEF WRAPAROUND CLOUD COVER MOVE IN TO THE NRN COUNTIES THIS AFTN AS THE MAIN UPPER LOW MARCHES INTO THE SRN PLAINS. AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. POPS ARE EXPECTED TO START/INCREASE FROM FRI NIGHT INTO SAT WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. MUCH COOLER TEMPS FCST IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT. 41 A DEEP AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL MOVE N-NE TODAY LEAVING A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON THURSDAY AND THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS TO BECOME NE ON THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST.
258 PM EST WED NOV 18 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT THEN CROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THURSDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE WEEK.
313 PM CST WED NOV 18 2015 20z/2pm surface chart shows 980mb low over southwest Ontario, with a cold front extending southeastward into the Ohio River Valley. A secondary front/trough axis is noted further west along/just west of the Mississippi River. Southerly winds have been gusting to between 30 and 40 mph this afternoon, but will veer to the southwest this evening then to the west late tonight as the trough passes. Due to cloud cover for a good portion of the night and continued gusty winds, have gone a few degrees above MAV guidance numbers, with lows ranging from the middle 30s northwest of the Illinois River to the lower 40s along/south of I-70. Morning upper air shows upper trough to move east across area today, gradually bringing drier air aloft in.
1212 PM EST WED NOV 18 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT.
WENT AHEAD AND ADDED THAT ZONE TO THE HIGH WIND WARNING. WE HAVE OPTED TO UPGRADE THE HIGH WIND WATCH TO A WARNING FOR THE REST OF THE EASTERN PLAINS OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND WESTERN NEBRASKA STARTING AT 9 AM. BELIEVE MOST LOCATIONS IN THE HIGH WIND WARNING WILL BE AT OR NEAR HIGH WIND CRITERIA. EXPECT WINDS TO DECREASE IN THE EVENING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND SOME DECOUPLING AS THE LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. BAROCLINIC BAND AND COLD FRONT PASS OUR LOCATIONS. A BROAD LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL DOMINATE THE LARGE SCALE WEATHER PATTERN.
AS A VERTICALLY-STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS CONTINUES TO LIFE NORTHEAST OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST TODAY. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL EASE INTO THE AREA BY THURSDAY MORNING.
THE PRECIP WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE REACHED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO THE RAIN COOLED AIR AND THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. ALTHOUGH THESE WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH LATER THIS MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE EWD ACROSS THE AREA.
258 PM CST WED NOV 18 2015 The old upper system was moving quickly northeast into the Great Lakes today, but another wave, though much weaker, was rotating in behind over the High Plains. The cloud and moderate southwest winds should keep temps well above freezing during any precip for a liquid event. Clearing skies overnight should allow for lows near to just below freezing. Weak high pressure builds into the Central Plains Thursday with deep west to northwest flow resulting.
THE PRECIP WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE REACHED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO THE RAIN COOLED AIR AND THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
1134 AM CST WED NOV 18 2015 HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIRMASS HAS MOVED ACROSS THE REGION.
THEN TURN TO THE NORTH AROUND 05-06 UTC AS A MODEST COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. /ISSUED 409 AM CST WED NOV 18 2015/ UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT FIELDS WERE UNWINDING THIS MORNING JUST BEHIND THE UPPER LOW SPINNING THROUGH EASTERN KANSAS. RESULT WILL BE MODESTLY BREEZY WEST WINDS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT FLUNG SOUTHWARD FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS SYSTEM. SURFACE WINDS ALSO ON THE LOW END OF BREEZY BEHIND THIS WEAKENING COLD FRONT.
FAST MOVING TROUGH CROSS THE DIVIDE AROUND NOONTIME. AFTER THE TROUGH PASSAGE. SHOWERS SHOULD INCREASE DURING THE DAY AS THE TROUGH PUSHES OVER THE NORTHERN ZONES DURING THE AFTERNOON. GENERAL TROUGHINESS TO THE NORTHWEST MAY GENERATE ADDITIONAL LIGHT SHOWERS THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
1127 AM CST WED NOV 18 2015 Water vapor imagery depicts an impressive closed upper level low pressure system near the Wichita, Kansas area. As we head into this morning, that upper level low will pull northeast towards the Corn Belt. We will actually see a weak cold front slide through the area late tonight, but it will be "dry" in nature. Temperatures will be fairly close to normal with highs in the lower to middle 50s.
THE LOW PRESSURE TROF HAS MOVED WELL EAST OF THE ZONES AND COLD AIR IS MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH. THE HIGH WIND WARNING WAS BEEN CANCELLED AND WINDS ACROSS THE REGION WILL DIMINISH AS WELL. UPDATES THIS MORNING HAVE BEEN MADE FOR THE HIGH WIND WARNING CANCELLATION, FRESHENING OF THE WIND GRIDS, AND TEMPERATURES. STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
WE DO NOT EXPECT THAT WE WILL NEED TO EXTEND THE WARNING FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN. LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE IN THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE MOISTURE WILL BE DEEP ENOUGH IN THE HIGH COUNTRY TO PRODUCE A CHANCE OF SNOW ALONG WEST FACING SLOPES BY LATE AFTN.
THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA. WITH COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED ACROSS NORTHERN MN. VERY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE BEHIND THE LOWS ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN WI AND CENTRAL SK. WINDS WILL BECOME EAST- SOUTHEASTERLY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS WY AND INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.