Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
THE 18Z GFS STRENGTHENS THE LOW AND MOVES IT NE TO THE FL PANHANDLE FRIDAY MORNING AND INTO SE GA FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA BY AROUND DAWN FRIDAY AND END DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA. WITH CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVING IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXIT TO THE EAST TONIGHT. AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS AREA WATERS FRIDAY. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER AND INCREASE TONIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES FURTHER BETWEEN THE DEPARTING HIGH AND LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE GULF.
ONE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK EAST ALONG THE GULF COAST TONIGHT. WHILE WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM THE NORTHERN LOW PULLS MOISTURE NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE FRONT. LIGHT PRECIP MAY LINGER THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION AND UPSLOPE FLOW.
Breezy southerly winds should slowly decrease this evening as cloud cover increases ahead of a cold front approaching the CWA. The cold front is expected to enter into the CWA late this evening and exit Friday morning. Still expect scattered showers to develop this evening within relative moist axis ahead of Pacific cold front which will sweep through the area overnight.
327 PM MST THU JAN 14 2016 STILL HAVE THE HIGH WIND WARNING GOING FOR SEVERAL AREAS WEST AND NORTH OF CHEYENNE WHERE WE ARE GETTING PERIODIC GUSTS 50 TO 60 MPH. FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE THE POSITION AND MOVEMENT OF AN ARCTIC BOUNDARY ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS.
COLD FRONT SITUATED ACROSS AREA SHIFTS A BIT EAST LATER TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.
617 PM EST THU JAN 14 2016 CHANCES OF RAIN INCREASE LATE TONIGHT WITH OCCASIONAL RAIN ON FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND COLD FRONT TRACK INTO AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY STEADY OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE LOWER 40S ON FRIDAY.
707 PM EST THU JAN 14 2016 LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AND BRING RAIN TO THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY. THE LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA FRIDAY EVENING.
OTHERWISE A COLD FRONT WILL BRING COLDER AIR TO THE REGION ON FRIDAY WHICH WILL DROP HIGHS TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES FOR MID JANUARY.
EARLY EVENING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A RIDGE OFF THE SOUTHEAST US COAST WITH A LOW POSITIONED ACROSS IOWA. TEMPS WERE RATHER MILD FOR A MID JANUARY EVENING RANGING FROM THE LOWER 40S ACROSS NORTHEAST ALABAMA TO UPPER 40S/AROUND 50 IN THE SHOALS. KBMX 00Z RADIOSONDE SHOWED VERY DRY AIR BELOW 500 MB SO IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO SATURATE THE LOWEST 5-6 KM TONIGHT.
AN APPROACHING WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE TOWARDS WESTERN WYOMING. THOUGH IT LOOKS LIKE THIS BREAK WILL BE TEMPORARY AS ADDITIONAL MOISTURE WORKS TO MOVE ALONG THE RIDGE TOWARDS NORTHWESTERN WYOMING FRIDAY AFTERNOON. FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY THERE REMAINS SUPPORT FOR A LONG WAVE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN U. WITH A LONG WAVE TROUGH ROUGHLY CENTERED ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. WITH ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE PACIFIC WITH FAST MOVING TROUGHS SPLITTING AS THEY APPROACH THE LONG WAVE RIDGE.
559 PM CST THU JAN 14 2016 A very warm air mass is over the region as highs in the low to middle 60s are currently being observed across the area. An upper level short wave trough and cold front are currently located across the central Plains. A cooler air mass will start to spread into the area on Friday with highs in the 40s with northwesterly winds.
558 PM CST THU JAN 14 2016 MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WAS FOCUSED ON SNOW CHANCES OVERNIGHT WITH STRONG CLIPPER SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED SHARP COLD FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS THE STATE. SHORT WAVE TOPPING RIDGE WILL CROSS THE NWRN CANADIAN PROVINCES AND DROP INTO INTO MANITOBA LONG WAVE LOW CENTER AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING WELL TO THE NORTH OF TN WILL HELP BRING THE MOISTURE NORTHWARD.
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON WITH A RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN U. THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH WILL DIVE INTO THE ROCKIES LATE FRIDAY AND THEN INTO THE PLAINS. THIS WILL BRING INCREASING RAIN CHANCES TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST AND ENTERS NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AFTER 06Z. AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT FRIDAY. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE STATE.
THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO QUICKLY LIFT EAST- NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF TONIGHT AND THEN INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES BY FRIDAY MORNING. A FEW STRONG STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT OVERNIGHT. AND IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST. STILL EXPECT RAIN TO SPREAD OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF.
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS 500MB TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER WEST CENTRAL TEXAS WILL BE MOVING EAST AND EXIST THE STATE DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. COASTAL TROUGH GENERATED BY THIS TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ALONG THE GULF COAST AND CONTINUE TO ENHANCE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS. THE CLOUD COVER IN ADDITION TO THE LOCATION OF THE TROUGH IS NOT FAVORABLY FOR ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE MID 70S AREAS ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE LOW 70S FURTHER INLAND. AS THE TROUGH MOVES EAST. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT RETURNS AS RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION. A WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW NEAR THE SURFACE WITH ABUNDANT DRY SLOT IN THE AREA WILL FAVOR WARMER TEMPERATURES FRIDAY.
STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING INLAND THIS EVENING A LITTLE FASTER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO A BIT WARMER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST ESPECIALLY IN THE TREASURE VALLEY WHERE TEMPS REMAIN IN THE MID 30S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 20S. 00Z SOUNDING ALSO SHOWED TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH 850 MB.
RADAR SHOWS A BAND OF STRONG STORMS NEAR THE LOW CNTR. AND A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVES OVER AND EAST OF THE AREA. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE FRIDAY.
The pressure gradient between these two features will continue to provide a warm/southerly flow across central Illinois tonight, which will keep temperatures several degrees warmer than in previous nights. As the South Dakota low tracks eastward into Wisconsin, it will pull a cold front toward the region later tonight. Models in good agreement with the system that will be moving through the CWA Friday, as the low pressure area moves across the Great Lakes with the trailing cold front sliding across the state during the morning.
616 PM CST THU JAN 14 2016 AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW ARE EXPECTED TO FOLLOW THE COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE EAST/SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. WIND CHILLS WILL HOLD WARMER THAN ADVISORY LEVELS. COOLER ATMOSPHERE BEHIND THE BOUNDARY IS FAIRLY EFFICIENT AT PRODUCING PRECIPITATION.
411 PM CST THU JAN 14 2016 LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED AN INVERTED TROUGH/LOW OVER NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO AND 1021MB HIGH OVER GEORGIA/SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. RIDGE AXIS EXTENDED FROM THE HIGH TO NORTH HALF OF LOUISIANA.
154 AM PDT SAT APR 25 2015 RAIN AND SNOW WILL DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO EASTERN NEVADA.
341 AM PDT SAT APR 25 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING AND BRING PRECIPITATION TO MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL LINGER BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.
A STRONGER MID LEVEL TROUGH AS 500 MB PUSHES MAINLY EAST BEFORE THE NORTHEAST U. AND SOUTHEAST CANADA TROUGH ROTATES ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES FROM THE NORTHEAST. LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND KENTUCKY REGION TODAY MAY BRUSH THE FAR SOUTH WITH LIGHT RAIN.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER DURING THE DAY, AND THE MORE NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND IT MAY BRING LOWER CLOUDS (POSSIBLY MVFR) TO THE HI- LINE AREA (INCLUDING KCTB AND KHVR) AFTER 02Z.
NORTHERN EXTENT OF A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WILL HOLD OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TODAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. AND WILL GRADUALLY BE ABSORBED BY A BROAD NORTHERN STREAM CUT-OFF LOW OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL SINK SOUTH ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST AND NORTH FLORIDA LATE TODAY WITH AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WITH STRONG ZONAL FLOW EXTENDING FROM THE BASE OF THE TROUGH OVER NORTHERN MEXICO ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA.
/ISSUED 319 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015/ HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD THIS WEEKEND. ALSO, WITH THE HIGH BUILDING, THE FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST, ALLOWING FOR TEMPERATURES TO BE VERY WARM THIS WEEKEND, WITH HIGHS SUNDAY REACHING INTO THE 90S ACROSS MOST OF SOUTH FLORIDA.
432 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015 EARLY MORNING GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A CLOSED UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER NORTHEAST KS. AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW. WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHEAST TO NEAR ST LOUIS. A MARINE WARM FRONT WAS LOCATED ALONG THE I20 CORRIDOR OF MS. EXPECT THE UPPER LOW TO LIFT EAST INTO THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY. WITH STORMS DEVELOPING EAST OF THE LOW ALONG THE NORTHERN WARM FRONT. BUT CONFIDENCE IS LIMITED GIVEN WEAKER CAPPING AND BETTER POSITIONED WARM FRONT IN THE OHIO VALLEY.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST CONTINUES ITS EASTWARD MOVEMENT TOWARD MONTANA OVERNIGHT. A DISTURBANCE IN THE MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BRING WIDESPREAD MOUNTAIN OBSCURING RAIN AND SNOW WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS TO SOUTHWEST MONTANA THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
A LOW AMPLITUDE BUT DEEP LAYERED UPPER RIDGE WILL EASE OVERHEAD FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT THROUGH THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGHER SURFACE PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE PULLS AWAY FROM THE CAROLINA COAST.
625 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015 UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL KEEP UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF MAINE. THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTH AND WEST AND AS WELL AS THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS(<1").
THIS MORNING A WARM FRONT WAS MOVING INTO PARTS OF DEEP EAST TEXAS AND LOWER PARTS OF NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND HAD TEMPERATURES IN THE 70/S AND DEW POINTS WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO. AS THE UPPER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE TRAILING SOUTHWEST FROM KANSAS AND INTO NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS AND ON TO NEAR THE BIG BEND AREA OF WEST TEXAS SHIFTS EAST.
654 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015 LOW PRESSURE TRACKING THROUGH KENTUCKY WILL PROVIDE CHANCES FOR RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT. BEST INSTBY AND SHEAR LOOKS TO STAY TO OUR SOUTH BUT WITH WARM FRONT INVOF OF OUR FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF PSBL SVR ACRS THE FAR SOUTH. AS THE LOW SLIDES ESE PCPN WILL END FROM NW TO SE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. AS DRIER AIR AND CLEARING DEVELOPS COOLER AIR WILL FILTER IN. HIGHS SUNDAY TO RANGE FROM THE MID/UPPER 50S NORTHWEST TO THE LOWER 60S SOUTHEAST.
500 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015 UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL KANSAS WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST AS A BRIEF PERIOD OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE PANHANDLES. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS DIGGING OVER THE GREAT BASIN AREA TODAY. AND BY SUNDAY A CLOSED LOW DEVELOPS NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION.
COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY AS A STRONG TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION. BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN THE LAS VEGAS VALLEY WILL BE IN THE 5PM TO 10PM TIME FRAME AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA. BY LATE SATURDAY EVENING THE TROUGH WILL SHIFT EASTWARD INTO ARIZONA WITH PRECIPITATION BECOMING LIMITED TO MOHAVE COUNTY.
355 AM CDT Sat Apr 25 2015 Latest water vapor satellite loop at 08Z shows the upper low over northeast Kansas. Regional radar loop shows precipitation circulating around the low centered over the Washington and Marshall county border. Rather broad swath of showers and thunderstorms around the upper low. Expect a period of showers and thunderstorms to persist in the deformation zone as the upper low slowly moves off to the east through the day. High pressure over the northern Plains and into the Great Lakes region will keep winds from the east this evening and overnight. Highs today will range from near 60 in the far northeast to the lower 70s near central and southeast Kansas.
KEPT HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID 50S. WITH DOWNSTREAM RIDGING AND A VERY DRY COLUMN TO THE EAST.
501 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015 LOW PRESSURE TRACKING THROUGH KENTUCKY WILL PROVIDE CHANCES FOR RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT. BEST INSTBY AND SHEAR LOOKS TO STAY TO OUR SOUTH BUT WITH WARM FRONT INVOF OF OUR FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF PSBL SVR ACRS THE FAR SOUTH. AS THE LOW SLIDES ESE PCPN WILL END FROM NW TO SE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. AS DRIER AIR AND CLEARING DEVELOPS COOLER AIR WILL FILTER IN. HIGHS SUNDAY TO RANGE FROM THE MID/UPPER 50S NORTHWEST TO THE LOWER 60S SOUTHEAST.
1202 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015 CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES WENT DOWN TO LIFR NORTHWEST AND NORTH OF THE METROPLEX 02-04Z BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THE LOWEST CONDITIONS MAY REMAIN TO JUST NORTH OF THE METROPLEX TAF SITES.
507 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015 A LOW PRESSURE CENTER APPROACHING THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO MOST OF THE AREA. THE LOW WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT AS RAIN ENDS ACROSS THE REGION.
325 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015 THE 07Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A NUMBER OF SURFACE BOUNDARIES ON THE HIGH PLAINS. THE OTHER IS A FRONT AND INVERTED TROUGH ACROSS MONTANA AND NORTHWEST WYOMING. THE WYOMING SYSTEM WAS ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ALONG THE WYOMING-MONTANA BORDER AND ANOTHER NORTH OF RIVERTON. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE THE BREAKDOWN OF AN TRANSITORY UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ON SUNDAY AS A TROUGH ADVANCES ACROSS THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST. THE TROUGH WILL ADVANCE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS THROUGH MID-WEEK AND CLOSE A LOW OFF OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGING IS THEN PROGGED TO SPREAD ATOP THE PLAINS. THE GREATEST CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION IN THE EXTENDED OCCUR ON SUNDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH ADVANCES SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES.
154 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015 A LOW PRESSURE AREA AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL KEEP THE NORTH COUNTRY UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. CRNT RADAR SHOWS LIGHT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY MAINLY ALONG THE HIGHER TRRN OF NORTHERN NY/VT AND WILL CONT TO MENTION CHC/LOW LIKELY POPS.
229 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015 LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NORTHEAST KANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN KS THIS PM/EVE. COOLER AIR WILL FILTER SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY VIA BRISK NORTHEASTERLY WINDS.
248 AM CDT Sat Apr 25 2015 A nearly vertically-stacked area of low pressure is located over northeastern Kansas early this morning. As that area of low pressure slowly moves east across central Missouri today, a cold front will begin to push south toward the area. Temperatures Sunday will be on the cool side of seasonable, with highs in the low 60s.
PROGGED STP VALUES THE HIGHEST WE CAN REMEMBER IN THE LAST 2-3 YEARS AND HAS WORKED WELL WITH PREVIOUS HIGH END EVENTS. THIS EVENT REMINDS ME OF 15 MARCH 2008 WHEN WARM FRONT HELP FOCUS PERIOD OF PROLIFIC SUPERCELLS OVER NORTH GA AND SEVERAL TORNADOES. 17 WEAK SFC RIDGING WILL ALLOW FOR A SHORT DRY PERIOD.
454 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015 UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL KEEP UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF MAINE. THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTH AND WEST AND AS WELL AS THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS(<1").
BUT REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD TO NORTHERN QUARTER OF THE FORECAST AREA DUE TO THE CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE UPPER LOW WHICH WILL REMAIN OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. ALTHOUGH THE UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN IN THE VICINITY OF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AND WARMER TEMPS.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION WITH A WEAK FRONT WASHING OUT AS IT APPROACHES THE COAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PACNW WILL KEEP THE CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE PACNW WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY.
218 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015 WARM FRONT CURRENTLY TO OUR SOUTH WILL LIFT NORTH AS WE GO TOWARD DAYBREAK PASSING THROUGH THE NASHVILLE AREA 12Z TO 13Z (7 AM CDT TO 8 AM CDT) AND THEN WORKING NORTH INTO KENTUCKY DURING THE MORNING. WITH MID STATE IN WARM SECTOR AND THE APPROACHING SURFACE CYCLONE FROM MISSOURI VALLEY PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE TIGHTENING UP SO AM LOOKING FOR WINDS TO PICK UP IN SPEED AND BECOME QUITE GUSTY BY MIDDAY. THINK GREATEST THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40 BUT STORMS LOOK TO BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AT BEST SINCE AIR MASS IS DRYING OUT AS WE GO THROUGH THE DAY AS UPPER TROUGH FLATTENS OUT. THUNDERSTORMS STILL AROUND TONIGHT WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AFTER MIDNIGHT.
400 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW YORK WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TODAY. LOW PRESSURE OVER MISSOURI WILL TRACK TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
AN UPPER LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY FOR MORE SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ON SUNDAY BUT A WARM FRONT WILL REACH THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY.
233 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015 A LOW PRESSURE CENTER APPROACHING THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO MOST OF THE AREA. THE LOW WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT AS RAIN ENDS ACROSS THE REGION. STRONGER LOW LEVEL THETAE SURGE STILL APPEARS TO BE DELAYED UNTIL WELL AFTER 12Z FOLLOWING THE EVOLUTION OF SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY WORKING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. OR PERHAPS LOWER 50S IF A SLOWER THAN CURRENT FORECAST EVOLUTION MATERIALIZES IN REGARDS TO SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH.
112 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015 SKIES WILL CLEAR OVERNIGHT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHEASTWARD.
400 AM PDT SAT APR 25 2015 A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL MOVE INLAND THROUGH CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA TODAY BRINGING STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW WITH STRONG GUSTY WEST WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS THROUGH THIS EVENING. WARMER AND DRY FOR SUNDAY.
AS THE UPPER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE TRAILING SOUTHWEST FROM KANSAS AND INTO NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS AND ON TO NEAR THE BIG BEND AREA OF WEST TEXAS SHIFTS EAST.
THE MAIN WARM FRONT IS STILL IN SW MS AND NE LOUISIANA WITH AN UPPER TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE TX PANHANDLE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING ALONG THE WARM FRONT BOUNDARY AND THROUGH EASTERN TEXAS. THIS ALONG WITH THE APPROACHING WARM FRONT IS STILL LOOKING TO BE THE FOCUS OF HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. THE TEMPS WERE RUNNING A LITTLE COOLER THAN FORECAST AND DO NOT EXPECT THEM TO VARY MUCH OVERNIGHT.
159 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015 A VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY SLIDING EAST OVER CENTRAL KS THIS MORNING. A PACIFIC COOL FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS OUR REGION THIS MORNING ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE LOW. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH INTO THE REGION TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER SYSTEM.
WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT PLACING MID STATE IN WIDESPREAD RAIN MOVING ACROSS A GOOD PART OF TENNESSEE.
202 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015 MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TODAY AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT. CLOUD COVER SHOULD BE ON THE INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. STRONG KINEMATIC FIELDS SHIFT OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITH SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET OF 50-60 KNOTS COMBINED WITH SOME DIRECTIONAL WIND SHEAR WILL SUPPORT THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION. ON MON/TUE THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE BETWEEN THE DEPARTING SYSTEM OFF THE EAST COAST AND YET ANOTHER SLOW MOVING CLOSED UPPER LOW EJECTING EASTWARD OUT OF THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES.
THIS SEEMS LIKELY TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE ACTUAL WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE. STILL HAVE SOME QUESTION ON JUST WHERE WARM FRONT WILL SETUP DURING THE DAY ONCE IT GETS NORTH OF KENTUCKY BORDER. ALSO ENSEMBLE SHOWS SURFACE CYCLONE RIDING DOWN FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH TRACKS THROUGH SOUTHERN KENTUCKY AND INTO NORTHEASTERN TENNESSEE BY LATE EVENING. SURFACE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH SURFACE CYCLONE FINALLY MOVES DOWN INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WITH THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING STRUNG OUT JUST AHEAD OF FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN KENTUCKY.
644 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015 A LOW PRESSURE CENTER APPROACHING THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO MOST OF THE AREA. THE LOW WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT AS RAIN ENDS ACROSS THE REGION.
429 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015 THE MAIN SYNOPTIC FEATURES ACROSS THE REGION INCLUDE A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE JUST OFF THE GEORGIA COASTLINE AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF AND ACROSS MUCH OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO PLAY A STABILIZING ROLE FOR TODAY. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TODAY WITH THE STABILIZING EFFECT OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.
543 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER MAINE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TODAY. LOW PRESSURE OVER MISSOURI WILL TRACK TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH NORTHERN OKLAHOMA LATE TODAY AND PUSH SOUTH INTO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA BY SUNDAY AFTN.
BUT THE MAIN TROUGH. TROUGH WILL NARROW AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST. TROUGH WILL STILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TONIGHT FOR SHOWERS TO CONTINUE IN IDAHO MOUNTAINS BUT THEY WILL GRADUALLY RETREAT EAST OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE SUNDAY AS THE TROUGH MOVES AWAY.
325 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015 LOW PRESSURE OVER NERN KANSAS WILL MOVE EAST SOUTHEAST TODAY AND REMAINS SOUTH OF IA. ALL MODELS ARE CLOSE TOGETHER WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE LOW. SAT PIX AND AND RADAR SHOW A NICELY ORGANIZED UPPER LOW AND THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE CIRCULATION WILL IMPACT THE SOUTH HALF TO THIRD OF IA THIS MORNING WITH MORE SCATTERED PRECIP OVER THE NORTH. INSTABILITY DECREASES WITH TIME AS THE LOW MOVES EAST AND IS PAST US BY THE TIME PEAK HEATING OCCURS.
SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA TODAY. HIGHER INSTABILITY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT WILL MIGRATE EAST FROM MIDDLE TN BY THIS AFTERNOON. A LOWERING FREEZING LEVEL LEADS TO AN INCREASING POSSIBILITY OF LARGE HAIL. LOW LEVEL HELICITY AND LOWERING LCL ALONG WARM FRONT LEADS TO THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES.
Lee trough deepening rapidly in eastern Colorado, providing strong SW winds and strong downslope components this afternoon. All model guidance sweeps associated dry cold front through SW KS between midnight and 6 AM Sunday. With all the mixing, morning temperatures Sunday will be very mild for late February, with most locales holding in the low to mid 40s /some 15 degrees above normal/. Very modest cool advection behind the cold front will "cool" afternoon temperatures 10-15 degrees from Saturday's readings, with highs in the 60s. Highs on Sunday will be cooler and in the low to mid 60s. Warmer mid 60s to around 70 will be near the Oklahoma border from Liberal to Medicine Lodge.
THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT COLD FRONT FROM LOW IN SOUTHERN CANADA JUST NORTH OF MT-ND BORDER ACROSS EASTERN MT INTO WESTERN WY WILL CROSS FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS MAY ALSO OCCUR AS THE UPPER TROF CROSSES NORTHERN PLAINS. SOME SNOW MAY MIX WITH THE RAIN OVER THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE BLACK HILLS TOWARD MORNING. TROF WILL MOVE QUICKLY EASTWARD SUNDAY WITH SOME LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE MORNING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD AND NORTHERN BLACK HILLS.
356 PM CST SAT FEB 27 2016 A COLD FRONT IS THE PRIMARY FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM. IN THE LOWER AND MID LEVELS. AS THE TROUGH LIFTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN BORDER OF NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT. IN POST FRONTAL CONDITIONS TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER. SUNDAY NIGHT A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE CROSSING THE ROCKIES.
H5 TROF WILL DIG SE FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TOWARD THE EAST COAST MON-WED. 47 THE RETREATING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WAS HELPING TO KEEP WINDS DOWN THIS AFTERNOON.