Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
(Tonight) Potent cold front continues to inch closer to NW AL this Veterans Day afternoon, as evidenced by NW flow becoming more entrenched across the Mid South area. Additional rainfall will also spread back into the region behind the departing front, aided by an upper trough axis lifting ENE out of the Plains states.
A cold front crossing the area will bring rain showers through the early evening with light snow possible on interior mountains. A low pressure system currently moving southeast off Central Oregon has spun up a well defined cold front right along shore. High resolution models bring another round of showers through Saturday morning as the low itself makes landfall. Tapping into more tropical air ahead of the front, snow levels are expected to stay above 4000 feet during the bulk of precipitation, confining snow impacts to upper elevation ridges where around 6 inches could fall.
627 PM EST Fri Nov 11 2022 Periods of moderate to heavy rain are expected through tonight before the tropical remnants shift east of the area ahead of a cold front. Rain will continue through the evening as the remnant low of Nicole, and a crossing sfc cold front, complete their passage across the region. Rainfall intensity should gradually diminish after the passage of the front, and should eventually exit the region from W-E as the low and cold front track out of the area.
Current water vapor imagery depicts broad troughing over the central CONUS. Sfc ridging extends from northern Manitoba southward thru the central Plains. Temperatures are chilly, ranging from the single digits in our northeast to the lower 30s over far southwestern SD. Ensemble consensus suggests a high likelihood of troughing across most of the central and eastern CONUS through the week, favoring below to well below average temperatures. WPC clusters suggest high confidence in this pattern, with spread across clusters mainly attributable to differences in the location and amplitude of the trof axis, rather than any significant changes in the depiction of large-scale setup.
611 PM CST Fri Nov 11 2022 (Tonight) Potent cold front continues to inch closer to NW AL this Veterans Day afternoon, as evidenced by NW flow becoming more entrenched across the Mid South area. Additional rainfall will also spread back into the region behind the departing front, aided by an upper trough axis lifting ENE out of the Plains states.
Through 1 PM, daytime highs have only recovered about 5 degrees from the mid morning minimum temperatures, which in most cases is keeping Iowa in the upper 20s to near 30, and Illinois in the lower to upper 30s. Through 1 PM, daytime highs have only recovered about 5 degrees from the mid morning minimum temperatures, which in most cases is keeping Iowa in the upper 20s to near 30, and Illinois in the lower to upper 30s.
Low temperatures tonight still might change depending on how the low stratus deck sets up overnight. To start the short term period, cold high pressure will build at the surface across the Dakotas. Forecast highs range from the low- mid teens north and central, to the low 20s far southwest where winds should be southerly.
318 PM CST Fri Nov 11 2022 1032 mb high pressure centered over wrn SD/ND this afternoon will ridge south into cntl Nebraska tonight setting the stage for light drainage winds and strong radiational cooling. The forecast assumes the strong high pressure and subsidence will produce generally clear skies. This forecast is slightly warmer than the coolest guidance, the MET guidance, but splits with the NBM 50th percentile which is cooler north, and warmer south. Very dry air will remain across wrn and ncntl Nebraska Saturday but then moisten up Saturday night as the high pressure builds east into the MO-IA-MN midwest region. The guidance blend, which was warmer the than the NBM 50th, suggested highs in the 20s, 30s and 40s. A warm front will push east, part way into wrn Neb.
Initially Eastern Washington and North Idaho remain between a col/saddle point as an area of low pressure dives southeast through Oregon and into the Great Basin. By Saturday this low and the open trof it is nested in moves far enough east that the positively tilted ridging moving in, and its associated drier northerly flow, will have greater influence. Over the weekend this pattern reorients to more of a general northerly flow as broader ridging with axis placement off the coast takes shape. This ridge expands in wavelength and shows some amplification heading into the middle of the workweek with the axis remaining positioned offshore, thus the cold northerly flow on the east edge of the ridge persists over Eastern Washington and North Idaho.
A strong cold front will sweep across the region Saturday, with high pressure building in its wake. Temperatures have generally remained a bit warmer than expected this evening, I will align hourly temperatures with recent observations. An upper level trough positioned over the Mississippi River Valley will dig and deepen as it progresses eastward Saturday. The remnants of Tropical Cyclone Nicole will continue to move northward, well out of our forecast area by Saturday. As the upper level trough swings eastward a cold front at the surface will pass through the region.
145 AM MST Sat Nov 12 2022 A midlevel ridge will quickly move over the area today, and as a result some locations will see a rise in temperatures. This will mainly occur in the higher elevations by about 5 to 10 degrees. The next low pressure begins to move over the Great Basin, and by tomorrow becomes centered over Nevada. Breezy conditions will develop in the southwest flow ahead of this system, but mainly in the higher elevations. Late tomorrow the low pressure passes just southwest of the Four Corners. The bulk of snow should occur between sunset and sunrise with the highest amounts in the West Elks and San Juans.
Highs today reach into the lower to mid 80s, and lows fall into the mid 50s north to upper 60s at the coast central and south. A cold front will then move through the area Sunday, gradually stalling across south FL Sunday night with a few showers possible with it. Highs Sunday range from the lower 70s north to the lower 80s south as cooler and drier air moves in behind the front through the day.
158 AM EST Sat Nov 12 2022 A weak cold front will move out to sea this morning. An area of low pressure and its associated cold front will cross the local area tonight.
A strong cold front will sweep across the region Saturday, with high pressure building in its wake. Temperatures have generally remained a bit warmer than expected this evening, I will align hourly temperatures with recent observations. An upper level trough positioned over the Mississippi River Valley will dig and deepen as it progresses eastward Saturday. The remnants of Tropical Cyclone Nicole will continue to move northward, well out of our forecast area by Saturday. As the upper level trough swings eastward a cold front at the surface will pass through the region. The aforementioned trough should push off the East Coast Sunday and into Sunday night.
1113 PM CST Fri Nov 11 2022 Much below normal temperatures prevailed across the Central CONUS today as we remain within a mid/upper level trough. Below normal temperatures will prevail through the weekend with the lowest values expected on Saturday with most areas seeing highs in the 15-20 degrees below normal range. Moderating temperatures are anticipated as we move into Sunday as a mid/upper ridge translates eastward while dampening and southerly flow allows H85 temperatures to increase especially across central and western KS.
The deepening upper level trough will sweep across the state Saturday into Sunday. This will give better fetch and elongate the time of the colder air over the warmer lake. A trough of negatively tilted temperatures at 850 mb could bring as low as -12C air into the region. So expect 1 to 3 inches in Kalamazoo County with the highest amounts the further west you go over the totality of the event.
A closed low will push across Oregon on Saturday as a transitory ridge moves across the forecast area. This closed low will drop south across Nevada on Saturday night. The closed low over Nevada will slowly move southeast and weaken on Sunday. An increased southwest gradient will allow breezy conditions to continue during the day, especially over the higher terrain.
An area of low pressure is moving onto the Oregon Coast this evening.
The small scale ridge that will provide dry weather today, will gets pushed southeast by an approaching upper low from the north that will slide into northeast Montana late tonight, then across southeast Montana Sunday. TWH Overall the pattern in the extended remains the same, with a high amplitude ridge over the west coast, and troughing over the central plains.
Temps will be chilly by sunrise as temps are already below freezing area wide as of 1 AM. Weak upper ridging will begin to move into the Central and Southern Plains late this afternoon into the evening ahead of a closed low that is currently over the Pacific Northwest and is progged to dig southward into Nevada. A lee trough will begin to develop ahead of this system and will shift winds to out of the south around 5-10 mph by the late afternoon. This will do little to warm temps this afternoon with highs only expected to reach into the low 50s.
1032 PM CST Fri Nov 11 2022 (This afternoon through Saturday night) The cold front has cleared south of the Rio Grande this morning, leaving north-northeasterly flow in its wake. Expect temperatures to fall below freezing as far south as the I-10 corridor. As weak upper level ridging starts to build in Saturday, subtle height rises, abundant sunshine, and the return of southeasterly low level flow will help temperatures recover some. Saturday night won't be as cool as tonight with only the northern tier and higher elevations dipping below freezing.
12z models are continuing to struggle on the steepness of the low level lapse rates and the depth of moisture over the region. With the 850 mb ridge axis still west of the area until Sunday afternoon, concerned that the models are clearing things out far too quickly. Both of these have the lows more in the 20s.
Overall at least another 5 degrees warmer from around 60s degrees west to the low 50s in the Lower Plains counties of central Kansas.
1255 AM EST Sat Nov 12 2022 Rain will end tonight as low pressure exits the region. Showers will taper off through the day Sunday as high pressure builds in from west and subsidence develops aloft behind the exiting trough. Showers will linger longest near I-80 and the higher terrain due to enhancement from warm lake waters and orographic lift, respectively.
This is leaving the Keys within the baggy western flank of an Atlantic ridge. Dew points remain broadly in the lower 70s with temperatures slowly falling into the 70s. Expect broadly in the lower 70s.
An upper low off the Oregon coast will move inland tonight and across southern Oregon on Saturday. The latest models are on track with previous solutions in depicting snow showers accompanying the low in Harney County and southern Malheur County late tonight through Saturday. The upper low will track further south and away from the area on Sunday.
1148 PM EST Fri Nov 11 2022 Rain will gradually end tonight as low pressure exits the region. Showers will taper off through the day Sunday as high pressure builds in from west and subsidence develops aloft behind the exiting trough. Showers will linger longest near I-80 and the higher terrain due to enhancement from warm lake waters and orographic lift, respectively.
Showers will taper off through the day Sunday as high pressure builds in from west and subsidence develops aloft behind the exiting trough. Showers will linger longest near I-80 and the higher terrain due to enhancement from warm lake waters and orographic lift, respectively.
1044 PM CST Fri Nov 11 2022 (This evening through Saturday) Skies are gradually clearing out this afternoon in the wake of the strong cold front that went through the area early this morning. Low temperatures will likely fall to around freezing late tonight, with low spots being the coldest. While this is NOT a Hard Freeze, sensitive plants could be still be affected by the freezing temperatures. Tomorrow, high pressure will continue to be the main feature across most of Texas. Despite the sunshine, high temperatures will only reach the low to mid 50s.
Still some very weak forcing and a bit of the stratus layer within the dendritic layer near the Buffalo Ridge into parts of northwest IA would not be surprised if we see flurries into the afternoon. Upper level troughiness digs into the Northern and Central Rockies tonight and should allow some high clouds to begin spreading into the area.
1030 PM CST Fri Nov 11 2022 Yesterdays low pressure system continues to move off to the northeast this afternoon. Northwesterly flow on the backside of the low is blanketing the entire region in low level stratus while producing flurries.
Breezy northwest winds return Sunday as low pressure moves over the area. Despite the increase in cloud cover, many locations are trending slightly cooler than this time last evening as winds are lighter and a slightly cooler air mass has moved into the region.
Current water vapor imagery depicts broad troughing over the central CONUS. Sfc ridging extends from northern Manitoba southward thru the central Plains. Temperatures are chilly, ranging from the single digits in our northeast to the lower 30s over far southwestern SD. Ensemble consensus suggests a high likelihood of troughing across most of the central and eastern CONUS through the week, favoring below to well below average temperatures.
A strong cold front will sweep across the region Saturday, with high pressure building in its wake. With southwest flow and the cloud cover, expect a mild night with lows only falling into the low to mid 60s. An upper level trough positioned over the Mississippi River Valley will dig and deepen as it progresses eastward Saturday. The remnants of Tropical Cyclone Nicole will continue to move northward, well out of our forecast area by Saturday. As the upper level trough swings eastward a cold front at the surface will pass through the region. The aforementioned trough should push off the East Coast Sunday and into Sunday night.
Warmer today, about 2 to 6 degrees versus yesterday, but still running a few degrees below normal. Sunday: Gusty southwest winds in advance of an approaching upper level trof. Highs east of Tucson 1-2 degrees warmer than today while from Tucson west highs may end up 2-4 degrees cooler than today. Sunday night: As the main trof axis moves across the area and even with its limited amount of moisture, there will be a slight chance of snow showers/flurries across the White mountains.
The departure of a cold front and the remnants of Nicole left a tight surface pressure gradient and associated wind gusts up to 18 knots under northwest flow. This feature will bring precipitation in the form of rain across the lowlands. Then, temperatures will drop into the upper 30s by late afternoon or evening, and even into the lower 30s by Sunday morning. Could even see some light snow showers across parts of the lower elevations, provided enough moisture remains, but better chances across the northern mountains, where light accumulations, a general inch or two, will be possible. It will be rather blustery feeling on Sunday, with the combination of high temperatures mainly in the 30s to lower 40s and gusty winds, as high pressure gradually tarts to build in behind departing wave.
On Sunday a trough moving across the area will bring cooler weather, more clouds and gusty mountain and desert winds.
518 AM CST Sat Nov 12 2022 (Today) Upper trough axis shifting east of the area this morning with clearing skies.
516 AM CST Sat Nov 12 2022 Ridge continues to amplify out in the Gulf of Alaska, providing us with a NW flow aloft within the 250mb level. This allows for waves to ride along the ridge and move into our region at times. Underneath the cloud deck temperatures are staying in the lower teens.
Moist airmass remains in place in the low levels and with skies clearing last night we saw areas of dense fog develop. Tonight will start out fair then we'll see some more clouds and a few showers will move in from the northwest ahead of a cold front. Highs today reach into the lower to mid 80s, and lows fall into the mid 50s north to upper 60s at the coast central and south. A cold front will then move through the area Sunday, gradually stalling across south FL Sunday night with a few showers possible with it. Highs Sunday range from the lower 70s north to the lower 80s south as cooler and drier air moves in behind the front through the day.
Current surface analysis places high pressure through the plains. Upper level analysis places ridging over the northern Rockies, with low over Ontario. Highs for this time of year are normally in the low 40s, while our forecast for today has some locations in western and central North Dakota struggling to get out of the single digits.
A mix of valley freezing and fog this morning will partially clear by this afternoon.
447 AM CST Sat Nov 12 2022 Current surface analysis places high pressure through the plains. Upper level analysis places ridging over the northern Rockies, with low over Ontario. Highs for this time of year are normally in the low 40s, while our forecast for today has some locations in western and central North Dakota struggling to get out of the single digits.
Discussion: Early morning radar continues to show persistent light snow and flurries falling from the low deck of stratus clouds, which have basically not moved over the last 24 hours.
High pressure will build into the region beneath building heights aloft. Sunday will be slightly warmer than today as highs south of I-70 reach the low 40s. Jaja Through the weekend, an upper level trough currently over the West Coast will dig through the Intermountain West.
A cyclone aloft will pass east of California this weekend, resulting in a few snow showers in the Sierra Nevada tonight.
325 AM CST Sat Nov 12 2022 Ridge continues to amplify out in the Gulf of Alaska, providing us with a NW flow aloft within the 250mb level. This allows for waves to ride along the ridge and move into our region at times. Underneath the cloud deck temperatures are staying in the lower teens.
545 AM CST Sat Nov 12 2022 (Today and tonight) High pressure will dominate our weather the next 24 hours, with below normal temperatures persisting. Temperatures as of 3 AM were in the low to mid 30s and with several more hours of cooling, most areas should see temperatures dip at or just below freezing prior to sunrise. Skies will be mostly sunny today, with afternoon highs only in the low to mid 50s.
There will be enough moisture with this system on Sunday for a chance of light snow and temperatures will be somewhat warmer.
(Today) Upper trough axis shifting east of the area this morning with clearing skies.
The low level winds back slightly this afternoon but a favorable northerly fetch will continue tonight so we extended the Warning and Advisory for Iron and Ashland Counties through 6 AM Sunday. High pressure will nose into the region on Sunday and drier air should aid in diminishing the South Shore snow showers.
613 AM CST Sat Nov 12 2022 (Today) A broad longwave trough is progressing eastward from the Ozarks into the Mid South and eventually Ohio Valley this morning. Its associated cold front is currently draped just east of the I-55 corridor in Mississippi and will make it into northwest Alabama by 12z early this morning. As mentioned, a cold front will push eastward into and through the area today, bringing with it scattered to numerous showers (50-70% coverage), especially during the 12-18z window. The combination of the dense cloud cover/precipitation and gusty NW winds behind the front will result in a much, much cooler day that what we've seen in recent weeks.
Upper trough continues to shift south and east away from our area early this morning. Current cloud cover could have a hard time eroding today trapped underneath this high as low levels remain not well mixed. A wind direction change to more southeasterly by afternoon may help to draw in some relatively warmer air, but not too confident in any meaningful warm ups.
A low pressure system will move over the forecast area tonight into Sunday, resulting in increased north winds Sunday afternoon. A 557 mb closed low will approach the western fringes of our forecast area tonight into Sunday morning. Otherwise, gusty north-northwest winds will set up as the low pushes through our forecast area.
Colorado will be under a moderate northwest flow regime this morning with ridge axis still over the Great Basin. With time the ridge axis will shift east over eastern Colorado and the central plains tonight as flow begins to back around southwest in advance of upper low diving into the Great Basin. There is already a batch of high clouds ahead of the low and these will increase the cloud cover over Colorado during the day. Moisture increase will be at the high levels with dry low levels so no precipitation expected through tonight. The breezy conditions will also result in warmer overnight lows over wind prone areas in the mountains and base of the foothills.
(Today and tonight) High pressure will dominate our weather the next 24 hours, with below normal temperatures persisting. Temperatures as of 3 AM were in the low to mid 30s and with several more hours of cooling, most areas should see temperatures dip at or just below freezing prior to sunrise. Skies will be mostly sunny today, with afternoon highs only in the low to mid 50s.
(Today) A broad longwave trough is progressing eastward from the Ozarks into the Mid South and eventually Ohio Valley this morning. Its associated cold front is currently draped just east of the I-55 corridor in Mississippi and will make it into northwest Alabama by 12z early this morning. As mentioned, a cold front will push eastward into and through the area today, bringing with it scattered to numerous showers (50-70% coverage), especially during the 12-18z window. The combination of the dense cloud cover/precipitation and gusty NW winds behind the front will result in a much, much cooler day that what we've seen in recent weeks.
353 AM MST Sat Nov 12 2022 A midlevel ridge will quickly move over the area today, and as a result some locations will see a rise in temperatures. This will mainly occur in the higher elevations by about 5 to 10 degrees. The next low pressure begins to move over the Great Basin, and by tomorrow becomes centered over Nevada. Breezy conditions will develop in the southwest flow ahead of this system, but mainly in the higher elevations. Late tomorrow the low pressure passes just southwest of the Four Corners. The bulk of snow should occur between sunset and sunrise with the highest amounts in the West Elks and San Juans.
Front continues to weaken as it moves through this morning as associated 548 DM upper low moves across NE part of CA today. Few inches of snow possible over the higher elevations otherwise little to no accumulations expected. Upper low progged into the Great Basin tonight as short wave upper ridging moves into NorCal.
300 AM MST Sat Nov 12 2022 Not too much change today as ridging will be over the area today and bring mainly quiet weather. However, it should be a couple of degrees warmer with the air mass slowly modifying.