Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1010 PM EDT Thu Mar 15 2018 Mostly dry cold front exits tonight. High pressure Friday.
1050 PM MDT Thu Mar 15 2018 A large upper level low pressure trough over the Pacific Northwest extending southeast into the Great Basin with south southwest winds aloft bringing Pacific moisture into western Wyoming will produce periods of showers with possible isolated afternoon and early evening thunderstorms may produce small hail and strong wind gusts across the southwest and west with scattered showers east of the continental divide. Snowfall amounts of 2 to 3 inches can be expected over the western mountains with rain to rain snow mix in the lower valleys limiting accumulations.
At the surface, a strengthening cyclone in lee of the Rockies is drawing Gulf moisture northward across the area. Southwest winds and dry air will allow temperatures to climb into the lower and middle 80s Friday afternoon.
Highs over the weekend will be in the lower 80s with only a whisper of wind.
There does appear to be a brief window for possible light freezing rain across extreme southwest North Dakota in the 03-06 UTC timeframe per the 18 UTC GFS/NAM Bufr soundings at Baker. Water vapor imagery depicted a large upper level trough centered off the coast of Oregon. With the upper low almost stationary and flow over Montana shifting to the northwest, the focus for synoptic forcing was focused to the west of our border. A rain-snow mix may be possible in the west where temperatures rise above freezing in the afternoon hours. East-southeast flow keeps temperatures mild on Friday with highs in the low to upper 30s.
951 PM CDT Thu Mar 15 2018 Main concern in the period is the low pressure system currently developing across eastern Colorado, which will eject eastward tonight through tomorrow and quickly become stacked. Between now and then, high pressure will continue to keep conditions quiet, with just high clouds moving through this afternoon through tonight.
VFR conditions expected through the TAF period as high pressure weakens over the Appalachians. bringing low level moisture to the area Friday ahead of a low pressure system.
A negatively tilted short wave trof presently extending from the Great Basin into the southwest states will deepen and move into the Plains. Glass The system will continue to move across the area on Friday night with the highest precipitation potential along and east of the MS River in the evening in association with the strongest large scale forcing.
Ahead of an approaching stacked low pressure area exiting the central Plains, low level moisture will be drawn up over the wedge of cooler air near the surface early Fri, resulting in rain showers spreading gradually eastward during the day. Driven by positive vorticity advection ahead of the low Fri night, high bulk shear values will combine with low level helicity but limited instability to create a marginal risk for severe weather over southeastern MO and far western KY, associated with widely scattered tstms.
606 PM CDT Thu Mar 15 2018 Main concern in the period is the low pressure system currently developing across eastern Colorado, which will eject eastward tonight through tomorrow and quickly become stacked. Between now and then, high pressure will continue to keep conditions quiet, with just high clouds moving through this afternoon through tonight.
620 PM CDT Thu Mar 15 2018 Tonight: High pressure across the Upper Mississippi Valley will bring clear skies and rather light winds to the ARX cwa.
VFR conditions for this TAF cycle as high pressure continues to dominate.
Any precipitation that does make it to the ground will likely fall as light freezing rain, assuming temperatures do not cool down to the wet-bulb in the low-level dry layer. There does appear to be a brief window for possible light freezing rain across extreme southwest North Dakota in the 03-06 UTC timeframe per the 18 UTC GFS/NAM Bufr soundings at Baker. Water vapor imagery depicted a large upper level trough centered off the coast of Oregon. With the upper low almost stationary and flow over Montana shifting to the northwest, the focus for synoptic forcing was focused to the west of our border. A rain-snow mix may be possible in the west where temperatures rise above freezing in the afternoon hours. East-southeast flow keeps temperatures mild on Friday with highs in the low to upper 30s.
Strong south winds continue to advect moisture northward this afternoon with dew points in the low-mid 40s analyzed over much of eastern OK, with mainly 30s across western AR. Some of the high-res data available beyond 24 hours continues to show an even more aggressive push of dry air into western Arkansas and while we are not yet buying this solution completely, do feel enough potential exists to warrant a Fire Weather Watch to be extended into Benton/Washington counties. Cold front will eventually move into the area Friday night with lighter winds out of the north.
As this system moves into the plains, a deep low pressure area will develop over NW KS and become vertically stacked as it moves across northern KS during the daylight hours on Fri. To the south of the low, for most of the forecast area, very strong west/northwest winds will spread much drier air from western Kansas across the state, as deep adiabatic mixing kicks in for Friday afternoon. Could see winds close to wind advisory criteria, especially for portions of central KS, closer to the low center, where the gradient will be the tightest.
Southwest winds will become west later tonight as a Pacific cold front moves across the region. Surface trof will exit eastern sections early this evening, followed by Pacific cold front, with dry southwest and west winds remaining up overnight. Secondary closed low expected to develop over eastern Colorado tonight, and to then move across northern Kansas during the day on Friday. A Wind Advisory may be needed in northeast sections on Friday, in areas closer to the low.
735 PM EDT Thu Mar 15 2018 High pressure will drift across the southeastern U.
622 PM CDT Thu Mar 15 2018 Winter storm moving through the area through Friday night will bring a variety of weather to the area, including rain, thunderstorms, freezing rain, sleet and snow.
High pressure centered over the state tonight will shift east to over the Atlantic just offshore of the state for Friday. Afternoon relative humidity values will still be quite dry even with the moderation, with minimum humidities in the lower 20 percent range mainly inland from I-4 north. Will have another night of good radiational cooling, and lows generally expected in the mid 30s to lower 40s across the nature coast, though normally colder locations may flirt with freezing temperatures, and patchy frost will be possible. A closed upper low has moved over Quebec with associated troughing extending south through the western Atlantic. A predominant west to east zonal flow is over Florida with weak ridging extending through the Mississippi River Valley.
736 PM EDT Thu Mar 15 2018 A trough of low pressure will linger across the eastern Great Lakes through Friday.
A broad upper level low will persist over the western U. Currently the low's center is off the Oregon coast. The low center will drift south to the northwest California coast by Friday afternoon.
903 PM EDT Thu Mar 15 2018 Cool dry high pressure remains in place this evening with winds becoming light and variable across the region. A few locations could briefly hit freezing over the Nature Coast and interior parts of northern Florida. High pressure will dominate the waters through the coming weekend with light winds and seas 2 feet or less.
Templer Previous Discussion: Thanks to the large and complex low pressure system now spreading from the Oregon coast through the inter-mountain west and the northern high plains, a return to winter weather conditions can be expected at least through the next few days.
Expect southwest winds to remain in the 8 to 16 mph range overnight, with lows in the low to mid 50s. A Pacific cold front will move through the area Friday morning, resulting in gusty west winds of 10 to 20 mph. Abundant cirrus will offset heating somewhat, but still expect highs in the low to mid 80s for most locations.
An upper trough is currently swinging through the Desert Southwest as a decent 500mb jet rounds the base of the trough. Weak upper forcing associated with the upper trough may be enough to generate a few thunderstorms through this evening, mainly across the Trans Pecos and eastward where we are already starting to see some light radar returns. By Friday morning, the dryline quickly mixes east as the aforementioned upper trough rotates into the Central Plains.
A cold front over the northern part of the forecast area will work its way south across the forecast area tonight. The front will then serve as a focus for precipitation as it gradually lifts north Friday night in response to low pressure moving east from the plains into the Mississippi Valley. The model trend has been for a slower onset of precipitation, and also warmer temperatures Friday night. At this time any freezing rain Friday night looks to occur north and northeast of the forecast area. Despite a gradual increase in clouds in the south and eventually the central part of the forecast area late tonight, there should still be enough radiational cooling in the valleys for at least a small ridge valley temperature difference to develop tonight.
The attendant cold front will maintain eastward progress across TX/OK overnight with isolated pre-frontal shwrs developing after midnight across our region with the upper trough pivoting out over the southern Plains. However, with any that does get going, the increased lift ahead of the trough may be enough to induce an isolated thunderstorm or two so have maintained that wording in the forecast.
743 PM EDT Thu Mar 15 2018 Aviation High pressure over western Ontario will move southeast over the Great Lakes Friday setting up a few days of sunshine.
Lighter winds and cooler tonight as a passing weather system exits to the northeast.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 44 67 55 75 / 10 30 80 30 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 43 62 50 73 / 10 30 80 40 Oak Ridge, TN 42 62 50 73 / 10 30 80 30 Tri Cities Airport, TN 39 53 42 67 / 10 10 80 70.
The latest NAM forecast soundings show that the low level moist deck will thicken up overnight through Fri morning which will allow the ceilings to lower down to IFR levels. A warming trend will continue, with low temperatures well into the 60s and high temperatures Friday pushing into the lower 90s out west.
High pressure influences have kept today nice and dry with mid- upper 60s across most of Middle Tennessee.
743 PM EDT Thu Mar 15 2018 A strong area of low pressure over the Northeast U.
737 PM EDT Thu Mar 15 2018 A strong area of low pressure over the Northeast U.
High pressure will continue to move south and east as a cold front moves across southern plains. As the high moves east southerly flow will develop and allow moisture levels to increase across the area. Dry conditions expected overnight with warmer temps due to increasing clouds and moisture. Rain will begin to move in from the west Friday morning as the upper trough moves east and sends the cold front into the lower Mississippi River Valley.
Despite initially seeing clouds move in tonight, a northeast low level fetch will result in a sub-freezing nocturnal boundary layer. As the system saturates, this may result in enough energy to melt snow, so initially we may see some freezing rain/sleet, but profiles quickly cool thanks to strong lift.
647 PM CDT Thu Mar 15 2018 A challenging forecast, with temperatures very close or just below freezing making precipitation type difficult to forecast. Most models agree that temperatures will fall to near freezing across most of north central Nebraska late tonight, and then hover in the 30 to 32 degree range most of the day Friday. So with the temperatures expected to be just below freezing, icing will likely occur.
1135 PM CDT Thu Mar 15 2018 Tonight: High pressure across the Upper Mississippi Valley will bring clear skies and rather light winds to the ARX cwa.
/issued 346 AM CST Wed Dec 13 2017/ A progressive pattern setting up over the next five days will begin rather benignly today as high pressure over the northern gulf gradually slides east beneath increasing high clouds brought on by a cut off low centered over the Baja peninsula.
554 AM EST Wed Dec 13 2017 High pressure is settling in behind last nights cold front. /issued 413 AM EST Wed Dec 13 2017/ Latest WPC surface analysis shows the center of a well defined low pressure system over Maine, with a cold front extending south southwest, draped across the far tip of South Florida. Minimum temperatures are on track to plummet into the low 40s near Lake Okeechobee this morning, to around 50 along the east coast metro.
By sunrise, a cold front should be making its way south across western Kansas.
This system will drop temperatures across lower elevations of 10 to 15 degrees with readings in the lower to mid 50s this afternoon. The high country will be clearing from north to south as well, with another half inch up to 2 inches of additional accumulation, for a storm total of 2 to 6 inches.
632 AM EST Wed Dec 13 2017 High pressure and reinforcing cold air will be moving into the region today.
/issued 351 AM CST Wed Dec 13 2017/ SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday): Weak 500 mb ridging over the BRO CWFA will quickly fade during the period and will be replaced by a west-southwest to east-northeast mid-level flow overhead as filling 500 mb low pressure drops into the Baja Peninsula. This pattern will result in rapidly increasing cloudiness, with no rain to be found until Thursday afternoon as a cold front eases into Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley. Despite the increased cloud cover, temperatures will moderate to near to above normal levels as an onshore flow redevelops and intensifies ahead of the cold front.
851 AM EST Wed Dec 13 2017 High pressure and reinforcing cold air will be moving into the region today.
Winds are forecast to become breezy out of the southwest this morning and then shift out of the west then northwest this afternoon and evening as a cold front moves across the CWA. Gusts in the 15-25KT range will be possible with the higher gusts over Northwest Arkansas during the day. shifting to west/northwest during the afternoon with a cold front) should remain below Red Flag criteria.
The cold front has made its way through the CWA, and skies are clearing behind it.
Main issue is whether to introduce rain into the forecast for Thursday for two possible reasons: energy from the upper trough and increasing moisture and/or frontal boundary. For high temperatures, generally went with a blend of the short-blend and EKDMOSBC for today, adding a bit of the GFS and HIRESWnmm for FROPA on Thursday to get a bit cooler temperatures over the NW. Went a bit warmer for lows especially near the coast for tonight given the expected dew points and cloud cover.
Ridging was present from the west coast north into eastern Alaska and the Yukon. Further east, low pressure was noted north of Hudson Bay with a deep trough of low pressure extending south into Cuba. At the surface, low pressure was located over west central Minnesota with a cold front extending to the west southwest across South Dakota. A second, arctic cold front extended to the northwest of the low into northeastern North Dakota and Manitoba. Low pressure will quickly dive southeast today.
321 AM MST Wed Dec 13 2017 Cold front will move through the area this morning, with a period of gusty north winds behind it. Relative humidity values may drop into the upper teens this afternoon, but winds will be diminishing by that time as the cold front continues south. Temperatures will warm into the lower 40s, so no accumulation is expected, but wet bulb zero heights still low enough to mention snow.
421 AM MST Wed Dec 13 2017 Cold front will move through the area this morning, with a period of gusty north winds behind it. Relative humidity values may drop into the upper teens this afternoon, but winds will be diminishing by that time as the cold front continues south. Temperatures will warm into the lower 40s, so no accumulation is expected, but wet bulb zero heights still low enough to mention snow.
except for some of the high peaks in the northern San Juans. Temperatures today nearly similar to the past several days though the high clouds may have some impact. Cooler conditions on Thursday especially in the north as this system will be pushing a surface frontal boundary through as well.
Clear skies across interior NorCal early this morning other than a few high clouds spilling over the West Coast ridge. Strong high pressure will continue the dry and mild weather pattern through the end of the week.
502 AM CST Wed Dec 13 2017 Deep upper low moving into the Upper Midwest this morning on the surface map. so expect some of the higher gusts from mid morning to early afternoon, once the inversion breaks. A cold front moving through Central IL will bring a round of sprinkles/flurries today before clearing the area after sunset. Whereas clouds tonight will help to keep the lows in the 20s, tomorrows high temps will be about a 10-15 degree departure from todays. Cold air in place for Thursday keeps the high temps just below freezing.
High pressure will continue to build eastward today, with southerly flow increasing as the pressure gradient tightens. This will help filter in slightly more moisture and warmer temperatures. The combination of the southerly flow and ample sunshine will help our highs reach into the lower 50s. After the front arrives, cooler air looks to slowly advect southward during the day. Meanwhile, an elongated longwave trough formed from the merging of sheared mid-level troughs within the southern flank of the polar jet over the Intermountain West, and another one within the subtropical jet, will move towards the MS River on Thursday.
Tonight will be not as cold as we await for the arrival/passage of our next cold front during the day tomorrow.
This system will bring a dry cold front through the area again late tonight with another reinforcing shot of colder air. Chattanooga Airport, TN 48 33 50 29 / 0 0 0 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 46 31 46 29 / 0 10 10 10 Oak Ridge, TN 45 32 45 29 / 0 10 10 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 41 27 42 27 / 0 10 10 10 TN.
A warm front ran from the low into southern Wisconsin while the main cold front was across South Dakota. After sunrise, the big question is where will the low track. Based on trends with pressure falls, it appears the low will pass close to Dubuque and then move toward possibly KGYY. If this occurs then the potential for light snow would increase in the highway 20 corridor from Dubuque on east. Flurries/light snow showers should begin developing around mid- morning and increase in areal coverage in the late morning and early afternoon as the low heads toward Lake Michigan. Any precipitation should shut down quickly from west to east during the afternoon as the main cold front sweeps through the area.
Warmer than yesterday temperatures are expected across much of the area today with highs climbing into the 60s to low 70s. The highest potential for conditions to possibly meet Red Flag Warning criteria will be in NW parts of the fa.
A cold front will move into the area after 14/00Z, resulting in a N/NE wind shift at area terminals as it progresses southward. Over the last several days we've had a west coast upper ridge and east coast upper trough delivering a steady diet of cool air via frequent dry frontal passages, followed by brief warmups. However, each successive run of deterministic models and ensembles are breaking down/retrograding the upper ridge off the west coast and digging an upper trough farther southwestward over the intermountain west.
525 AM CST Wed Dec 13 2017 Another dry cold front is poised to drop through the region today.
Strong low pressure will be near KORD around 18z, with strong low level southwest flow developing ahead of an approaching front associated with the low.
Dry and Warmer. After yesterday's cold front, temperatures today and tonight will rebound. Lows tonight will be warmer than this morning's lows, mainly in the mid 30s.
High pressure continues to produce offshore winds today with clear skies and above normal temperatures. That being said, some breezy to windy conditions prevail across the ridge tops around the Bay Area. Chews Ridge on the other side of the Salinas Valley remains at 5%. KSTS is also reporting fog so freezing fog will be possible across the North Bay Valleys. High pressure remains in place on Thursday leading to another mild and dry day.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 48 33 50 29 / 0 0 0 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 44 31 46 29 / 0 10 10 10 Oak Ridge, TN 44 32 45 29 / 0 10 10 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 39 27 42 27 / 0 10 10 10 TN.
Cooler today in the wake of the passing cold front.
High pressure over the area today with a sfc trof ovr the mts. Adjusted temps/dew points a bit based on downsloping winds east of the trof. Early morning lows in the low to mid 20 inland.
Temperatures will moderate through the day today as weak warm air advection pushes in as a warm front passes this afternoon. A weak clipper system will pass to our north tonight and drag a trailing cold front across the early during the early morning hours on Thursday. Any remaining snow should quickly come to an end as cold high pressure builds into the area.
High pressure continues to remain firmly in place over the west coast this morning.
/Issued 330 AM EST Wed Dec 13 2017/ High pressure building into the area will keep things dry with wind speeds also diminish today.
Observed trends also suggest the trough may move a bit further than forecast.
Will be able to enjoy another mild day across South Central Texas as the H5 pattern overhead undergoes a transitional period characterized by subtle ridging and westerly winds aloft. After a slightly warmer morning Thursday, our next cold front will be on approach from the north. While there is a bit of uncertainty in the arrival time in the GFS/ECMWF, the front will serve to dry out the low levels and seriously hinder the possibility for PoPs once it arrives.
906 AM EST Wed Dec 13 2017 High pressure ridging east from the western Gulf of Mexico will keep rain-free conditions, north-northeast winds and cooler temperatures over the area today. High pressure is building into the region from the west which has allowed for the winds to veer and decrease to the north-northeast around 10-15 knots this morning. As this high slips eastward, the winds will further decrease by late this evening and then shift to the southwest as the high moves east of Florida on Thursday.
1000 AM EST Wed Dec 13 2017 A strong cold front continues to push off-shore early Wednesday morning, leaving in its wake much colder temperatures and strong wind gusts. High pressure will briefly build in Wednesday ahead of a fast moving upper level disturbance expected to move just north of the region Wednesday night. Temperatures will start the day in the low 20s before rising steadily into the upper thirties west to low forties east, remaining roughly 10 degrees below normal for this time of year.
The increase in moisture aloft could help to seed the lower stratus adding to the potential for very light snow (flurries). The upper low is well east of the area by evening, returning dry conditions for tonight and Thursday.
Continue to expect the majority of the measurable precipitation to fall from north central MN across west central WI (generally north of I-94), where some light freezing precip and 1-3 inches of snow are possible. However at that time the threat for freezing precip will be diminishing and the lift waning.