Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
330 AM CDT FRI AUG 5 2016 A large flat ridge remains firmly ensconced over the southern tier of states early this morning with a series of weak impulses moving along within the flow. a cold front extends from Northwestern Illinois through Northwestern Missouri to a low over Southcentral Kansas. These two features are working to set off complexes of thunderstorms around the periphery of the upper level ridge. The surface front is progged to make it to about the Highway 60 corridor by early this evening and will eventually stall out along the Missouri-Arkansas border.
243 AM PDT Fri Aug 5 2016 After a hot and sunny Friday, a strong slow moving low pressure system will move into the area Friday night.
344 AM CDT FRI AUG 5 2016 A mid-level perturbation on the northern periphery of the ridge axis was observed lifting eastward across Kansas this morning. Persistent cool advection from the northeast will provide the much needed relief from the heat with highs in the lower to middle 80s. During the late evening Friday, moisture convergence increases along the front as another weak mid level embedded trough lifts through the area. On Saturday an upper level trough will move into the west coast from the Eastern Pacific while a downstream ridge builds over the the Rockies.
649 AM EDT FRI AUG 5 2016 A weak frontal boundary along the southeast coast will remain well south of the local area through today, as high pressure becomes centered well off the New England coast.
mesoanalysis shows mid level trough axis and PVA nearly centered across eastern KY this AM. PWAT are expected to push into the 2 inch range and high freezing levels, so heavy rainfall threat will have to once again be watched. A cold front will be dropping south through our warm and humid air mass as the period starts.
However, there is dry air in the lower-levels below 700 hPa that will complicate matters. Satellite continues to show plentiful monsoon moisture across the 4 corners region that will drift to the northeast/clockwise around the southern plains ridge. Some dry air in the low levels initially however models top down saturate quickly with Saturday morning into the afternoon seeing a swath of showers to lift across the CWA.
358 AM CDT FRI AUG 5 2016 Not unlike yesterday morning, scattered showers and thunderstorms over the northwest half of Oklahoma are expected to gradually dissipate through the morning as they move slowly east into closer proximity to the upper high pressure cell. This broad upper high over Texas, Louisiana, Oklahoma, and Arkansas will keep extremely hot and humid conditions around for at least another day or two.
Temperatures are 5 to 15 degrees cooler versus 24 hours ago.
A cold front crosses late Friday night into Saturday.
An upper level low is centered on the British Columbia coast near northern Vancouver Island early this morning.
A weakness in the upper level pattern between a Southern Plains Ridge and the subtropical Atlantic ridge will remain in place over the local region for the next couple of days.
Averaging the better performing bias corrected grids the past few days along with 850mb temperatures suggests high temperatures in the low to mid 70s in far eastern Colorado with mid 70s to near 80 elsewhere. Quite a bit of moisture below the mid levels suggesting a mostly cloudy/cloudy sky which will make the high temperature forecast rather troublesome.
141 AM EDT FRI AUG 5 2016 High pressure slowly slides offshore through Friday. Showers and thunderstorms, some possibly strong, are likely for Saturday as a cold front approaches.
229 AM EDT FRI AUG 5 2016 A weak frontal boundary along the southeast coast will remain well south of the local area through Friday, as high pressure becomes centered well off the New England coast.
Going fcst assumes SHRAs/TSTMs will dvlp along the cold front near the I-70 corridor around 18Z and then move S thru the aftn. This area stands the best chance of getting PM TSTMs though which puts the high temp fcst in question.
309 AM CDT FRI AUG 5 2016 Broad high pressure will settle over the area today and tonight, with a very modest northerly breeze pretty much dying to near calm tonight. High temperatures today will range from 78 to 84, with the warmer readings northwest, HON/9V9/MHE area.
General pattern is upper level high over southern US. The high is currently centered over eastern Texas and is not expected to change much. By late in the weekend the upper level high will weaken just enough to have just an elongated high over the southern US, from coast to coast.
333 AM EDT FRI AUG 5 2016 A cold front. Canadian high pressure will move SE across the Great Lakes this weekend.
Humidities in the low teens and single digits today will mean that localized Red Flag conditions may occur in wind prone and exposed locations along the Sierra Front but widespread critical fire weather is not expected.
In the middle and upper levels (700-200 mb), Latest IR imager overlaid with model streamline analysis as of 300 am depict a ridge axis positioned from Southern Louisiana eastward to the Western Atlantic near 32 North 70 West. Southeast of that feature, The center of a well defined middle and upper level low pressure system was located near the Turks & Caicos Islands but migrating slowly westward. Temperatures across the islands are in the lower to middle 80s with dewpoints in the middle to upper 70s.
409 AM EDT FRI AUG 5 2016 Early this morning we will be dealing with low cloud deck from Atlantic moisture interacting with lingering wedge marked by inverted ridging and NE sfc fetch. Still main threat of wet microburst and localized flooding given the high PWATs generally in 1.
Weak sfc ridging continues along the Gulf coast while aloft the prevailing large high pres system continues to sit over TX ridging east into LA. The ridge aloft will continue to dominate much of the area through the weekend, especially acrs the wrn half of the area where shower and tstm chcs will remain low as subsidence limits convective development. Rain chcs will increase some to the east of the Sabine River as the influence of the upper ridge becomes weaker and outflow boundaries from convection to the ne and east of the area interact with the northward moving sea/bay breeze acrs our ern zones.
Cooler than normal temperatures and extensive night and morning inland low cloud coverage can be expected for the remainder of the week and upcoming weekend. An upper level low over western British Columbia will drop slowly southeast into the Pacific Northwest during the weekend. A second upper trough is forecast to move through the area Saturday maintaining the deep marine layer. This trough is a little stronger and does bring increasing instability to northern California.
406 AM EDT FRI AUG 5 2016 A cold front will approach from the northwest today and move through the area tonight. High pressure will build in for the weekend. A few showers will remain in far southeast parts of the forecast area early this morning as a weak upper low continues off to the east. This along with a pre-frontal trough will result in scattered convection developing this afternoon especially in western counties. Showers and thunderstorms will continue through the night as a cold front slides southeast. Otherwise high pressure will build in with a drier and somewhat cooler airmass. Preferred warmer lows tonight. Used a MOS blend leaning slightly towards warmer numbers for the remainder of the periods. Flat upper ridge will build a bit further north for the first half of the week.
Weak upper level trough off the northern California coast is now moving inland from a parent upper level low in the southeast Gulf of Alaska. A slight chance of thunderstorms will be possible mainly over the higher terrain on Saturday afternoon.
At long last a cold front diving through the Upper Midwest is poised to push through the Ohio Valley, and ahead of it a MCS is currently gusting out over central Illinois.
143 AM EDT FRI AUG 5 2016 A weak frontal boundary along the southeast coast will remain well south of the local area through Friday, as high pressure becomes centered well off the New England coast.
Then as next system approaches later this evening, will see an increase in clouds with storms developing ahead of cold front. Overnight lows will be mild in the low to mid 70s. Byrd Convection is expected on Friday as a cold front drops southeastward through our forecast area. These storms are occurring because of a cold front that is moving from north to south across the area. still expect mainly dry and VFR conditions through midday on Friday before a cold front moves through the area.
411 AM EDT FRI AUG 5 2016 A weak frontal boundary along the southeast coast will remain well south of the local area through today, as high pressure becomes centered well off the New England coast.
528 AM EDT FRI AUG 5 2016 A cold front will result in increasing shower and thunderstorm chances until its late night or early Saturday morning passage. A cold front is progged for approach and passage tonight through early Saturday.
348 AM CDT FRI AUG 5 2016 348 AM CDT Main focus in the near term is precipitation trends today as cold front moves southeast across the forecast area, then milder temperatures and somewhat lower humidity over the weekend. A cold front trailing from this low extended from the eastern Upper Peninsula of Michigan to eastern Iowa. Temps today should range from the low-mid 80s north to the upper 80s ahead of the front in the south.
626 AM EDT FRI AUG 5 2016 A cold front over the Great Lakes this morning will track across Pennsylvania Saturday morning.
421 AM CDT FRI AUG 5 2016 Upper level ridging continues across the region with upper troughs moving over the northern half of the country. There is a slight chance of thunderstorms today and this evening across the higher terrain of West Texas and southeast New Mexico.
315 AM EDT FRI AUG 5 2016 A cold front will result in increasing shower and thunderstorm chances until its late night or early Saturday morning passage. A cold front is progged for approach and passage tonight through early Saturday.
High pressure will build over western and central ND tonight under mostly clear skies.
Northwest winds will decrease this evening as high pressure settles in over the region. Overnight lows will be rather cool with most locations dropping into the low to mid 50s. This high will remain in place on Friday with generally light winds across the area. The high begins to move off to the east on Saturday with east to southeast winds developing.
VFR conditions will prevail through Friday with persistence being the best forecast indicator as the upper level ridge of high pressure continues to dominate.
/issued 811 PM EDT THU AUG 4 2016/ Water vapor satellite imagery is showing an upper level low spinning over and just east of the Bahamas, which is forecast to very slowly drift west towards Florida through the upcoming weekend. Meanwhile, a stalled trough boundary over northern Florida is contributing to an unsettled weather pattern, with deep moisture and scattered to numerous daily thunderstorms. High pressure will continue to ridge over the eastern Gulf of Mexico through the weekend, then gradually sink south during the first half of the week.
533 AM EDT FRI AUG 5 2016 A cold front over the Great Lakes this morning will track across Pennsylvania Saturday morning.
555 AM CDT FRI AUG 5 2016 A large flat ridge remains firmly ensconced over the southern tier of states early this morning with a series of weak impulses moving along within the flow. a cold front extends from Northwestern Illinois through Northwestern Missouri to a low over Southcentral Kansas. These two features are working to set off complexes of thunderstorms around the periphery of the upper level ridge. The surface front is progged to make it to about the Highway 60 corridor by early this evening and will eventually stall out along the Missouri-Arkansas border.
348 AM CDT FRI AUG 5 2016 (Today and Tonight) Dry and hot weather will continue again today with the upper level high centered overhead.
The high pressure system that has brought the dry weather to the region the past couple of days will finally move east Friday night and this will bring a cold front into the region. Cooler temperatures are expected for the weekend.
/issued 421 AM CDT FRI AUG 5 2016/ Upper level ridging continues across the region with upper troughs moving over the northern half of the country. There is a slight chance of thunderstorms today and this evening across the higher terrain of West Texas and southeast New Mexico.
Then as next system approaches later this evening, will see an increase in clouds with storms developing ahead of cold front. Overnight lows will be mild in the low to mid 70s.
150 AM EDT FRI AUG 5 2016 A weak frontal boundary along the southeast coast will remain well south of the local area through Friday, as high pressure becomes centered well off the New England coast.
1259 AM CDT FRI AUG 5 2016 Cold front is making steady progress across MN this afternoon, with dewpoints eventually falling into the upper 50s across western MN. Tonight and tomorrow, persistent NW winds from high pressure coming out of the nrn/Canadian Rockies will bring in much more pleasant air for the rest of the short term. High pressure will be in full control by tomorrow evening and will make for a very quiet weekend weather wise.
The area remains between high pressure to both our east and west allowing for another day today of scattered shower and thunderstorm activity. Outside of the convection that develops, temperatures will climb into the low to mid 90s with heat index values of 105 to 107 in the hottest part of the day. The 850mb trough will remain stalled along the coast for the next several days. Showers and thunderstorms continue to fire along this boundary and move west along the trough interface.
mesoanalysis shows mid level trough axis and PVA nearly centered across eastern KY this AM. PWAT are expected to push into the 2 inch range and high freezing levels, so heavy rainfall threat will have to once again be watched.
246 AM EDT FRI AUG 5 2016 High pressure will bring dry and seasonably warm weather with low humidity today. A cold front will sweep New England Saturday bringing strong to severe thunderstorms.
607 AM EDT FRI AUG 5 2016 A cold front. Canadian high pressure will move SE across the Great Lakes this weekend.
Today, ridging begins to slide north as divergent southwest monsoonal flow pushes into the region. 850 mb trough development over central Montana late afternoon on Saturday will increase southerly flow over southeast Montana. This pattern favors an easterly flow into the area in the low levels, advecting plains moisture into the area and pushing precipitation potential above climatology levels.
A ridge of high pressure continues over the Northern Rockies will bring generally hot and dry conditions today. A strong low pressure system will be settling over the Olympic peninsula this weekend creating the upper level flow to become southwesterly over the Northern Rockies.
641 AM EDT FRI AUG 5 2016 A cold front will approach from the northwest today and move through the area tonight. High pressure will build in for the weekend. A few showers will remain in far southeast parts of the forecast area early this morning as a weak upper low continues off to the east. This along with a pre-frontal trough will result in scattered convection developing this afternoon especially in western counties. Showers and thunderstorms will continue through the night as a cold front slides southeast. Otherwise high pressure will build in with a drier and somewhat cooler airmass. Preferred warmer lows tonight. Used a MOS blend leaning slightly towards warmer numbers for the remainder of the periods. Flat upper ridge will build a bit further north for the first half of the week.
As far as temperatures go, we will continue to see a falling of both overnight lows and daytime highs as cooler northerly air filters into north central Nebraska.
Cooler than normal temperatures and extensive night and morning inland low cloud coverage can be expected for the remainder of the week and upcoming weekend.
402 AM CDT FRI AUG 5 2016 A decaying convective complex is depicted on water vapor imagery along a cold front draped across eastern Iowa extending southwest into southeastern Kansas. Cloud cover combined with a cooler air mass behind the boundary will result in below normal temperatures throughout much of the CWA Friday afternoon. Temperatures across northern Missouri will only top the low 80s with temperatures in the mid to upper 80s expected over areas south of the Missouri River, near and ahead of the frontal boundary.
551 AM CDT FRI AUG 5 2016 A decaying convective complex is depicted on water vapor imagery along a cold front draped across eastern Iowa extending southwest into southeastern Kansas. Cloud cover combined with a cooler air mass behind the boundary will result in below normal temperatures throughout much of the CWA Friday afternoon. Temperatures across northern Missouri will only top the low 80s with temperatures in the mid to upper 80s expected over areas south of the Missouri River, near and ahead of the frontal boundary.
Multiple MCVS can be seen under a broader, but weak upper low, along with outflow boundaries moving from nearly every direction. Complicating things is warmer and drier southwest flow developing over the west, which will begin to stabilize the airmass further and start to dry the boundary layer. This could induce a surge and depending on the position of trough in the Great Basin, Arizona could moisten up again sooner than later.
Some locations in the higher southwest valleys had overnight lows dropped nearly 10 degrees. The high pressure ridge aloft will gradually shift east into Eastern Montana over the next 24 hours, allowing an increasingly moist and unstable southwest flow aloft to bring scattered to broken mid/high level cloudiness to Central and Southwest Montana. Moisture appears to be very limited in the low levels on Saturday, particularly over SW MT where little in the way of wetting rain is possible with Saturdays thunderstorms. Water vapor and model analyses reveal clear skies and high pressure over the forecast area this afternoon. Isolated nocturnal convection remains possible Friday night as heights fall due to a deep trough moving into the Pacific Northwest.
321 AM CDT FRI AUG 5 2016 Large complex of thunderstorms that developed in advance of a cold front across Iowa last evening and spilled into west-central Illinois overnight is currently ongoing along/west of I-55. it appears likely that storms will redevelop along this boundary rather than the approaching cold front. Cold front will sink southward through the area this afternoon and evening, eventually pushing the higher rain chances into the Ohio River Valley later tonight.
Upper low over British Columbia will be slowly spinning southward into the Pacific Northwest through the weekend. This will build a ridge over the northern plains today before opening the region to southwest flow aloft. Low level return flow will also be setting up over the high plains, but Gulf moisture stream will be interrupted by wave moving across the central plains. Dry and warmer conditions expected today with upper ridge building over the state. Lee trof begins forming by Saturday with southeast winds increasing into the region.
The lows will lower temperatures to around normal with an overnight marine layer at the coast and into some valleys. At upper levels, several troughs will move across the West Coast.
A passing cold front, will bring the likelihood of showers and thunderstorms to the entire region, from later tonight into Saturday. For the latter part of the weekend, we should see drier and cooler weather. Early morning water vapor imagery shows upper-level ridging cresting over the region. As this feature slowly translates eastward today, and as the main surface cold front upstream slowly pushes into southern Ontario this afternoon, isolated diurnal activity may develop again. The most likely time frame for showers and thunderstorms across central NY continues to look like late tonight, as forced lift and positive low-level theta-e advection maximize ahead of the above mentioned cold front. On Saturday, model agreement is quite good that the surface cold front will gradually move southeastward across the forecast area.
A weak disturbance dropping south down the backside of the persistent upper level "heat" ridge centered to our west was responsible for a fair amount of thunderstorm activity late yesterday (especially across central and eastern Mississippi). The mentioned cold front will be slowly approaching northern zones tomorrow evening through overnight and could keep some shower and storm chances going for locations near the Highway 82 corridor well into the night.
Also, the NAM is highlighting an upper level trough to move over our area this afternoon which will provide some forcing and upward motion. The GFS also shows this trough but it's not so distinct. As has been the case over the last few days, the heaviest precipitation will be over our southern regions where the highest moisture content resides.
226 AM EDT FRI AUG 5 2016 High pressure will continue to nose down from eastern Canada and New England, influencing our weather today. The high shifts east as a cold front approaches from the west. The cold front will cross the region later Saturday. High pressure will return behind the front and persist through midweek. This near term portion of the forecast was a 50 50 blend of the 00z/5 gfs/nam mos except relying on the warmer guidance for the max temps, blended with the previous 930 Pm forecast. A cold front attached to low pressure across canada will move across the area. Sct showers and tstms will roll in during the afternoon and continue into the evening with cold front.
258 AM CDT FRI AUG 5 2016 Cold front associated with passing wave across Ontario making progress with drier air starting to advect in overnight. Cooler airmass as well so temperatures will flip to below normal for a change, with far lower humidity levels. Relatively quiet northwest flow or even slight ridging expected for weekend.
955 AM EDT Fri Mar 24 2017 A warm front will drift northeast from the Ohio River Valley today, and we could see a brief period of freezing rain this morning followed by a rapid warm up.
954 AM CDT Fri Mar 24 2017 Pacific cold front has entered far western areas of the CWA.
Water vapor loop showed an upper ridge building into the area with a baroclinic leaf over the Pacific NW heralding the approach of the next system which will move into the area tonight. Winds were in good shape with gusty winds expected in KLVM today into tonight due to lee troughing. Today should be a quiet, dry day across Montana as a ridge builds into the area. Saturday the ridge will give way to another trough. A cold front will move through during the morning which will lead to cooler temperatures and scattered rain showers. Precip chances will continue overnight as the front stalls out and the main trough axis moves across the northern Rockies.
The upper trough with this system will take on a neutral to maybe a slight negative tilt by Saturday as it nears the southern Mississippi Valley. Again given the neutral trough and decent shear, moisture recovery (dewpoints rising into the mid 50s), some of the storms could become strong to severe in intensity. Despite the good chances for showers, a warm end of the week is expected with highs warming into the lower 70s. More breaks in the cloud cover or delay with showers starting could result in even warmer temperatures, and greater odds for strong and/or severe weather.
however high res models across the south are about 2 deg cooler than current forecast advertises.
Satellite imagery shows the approaching trough off the Pacific Northwest coast with an impressive baroclinic zone. 4 to 8 inches of snow is possible down to 7000 feet with local amounts around 12 inches over the higher elevations.
High clouds are starting to stream in as a result of exiting high pressure ridge. A moist southwest flow aloft ahead of an upper level trough will bring increasing mid and high level clouds mainly after 18Z.