Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
310 AM MDT Sun Sep 13 2020 The upper level high will build east across Utah and Colorado today.
High pressure passing overhead will bring temperatures back to and above seasonal normals. Midweek, a trough will dip down from the Pacific Northwest and bring with it cooler temperatures and breezy winds for the latter half of the week.
856 AM MDT Sun Sep 13 2020 Tranquil weather is expected through the short term period as a large upper ridge translates from the Great Basin to the central plains.
This will keep the ridging over the region and keep temperatures on the uptick into the start of the new work week. The ridge will also keep weather conditions dry and quiet today and tomorrow, with two rather incendiary exceptions (pun intended). The smoke will also continue to move eastward, following the southwest flow pattern present with the ridge. With the ridge in place, RHs will be very low and temps will be much above average with 90s not out of the question for some. Again, the smoke will keep temps slightly milder than guidance, but the ridge may win out here with temps, as the smoke is expected to have moved east and thinned out by Monday afternoon.
After another hazy morning, high pressure over Nevada will move east into Utah allowing for a downward trend in the smoke over the next few days and a modest upward trend in moisture. A couple of things will start to change today as the high center over Nevada shifts eastward into Utah. This is coincident with a 700mb theta-e ridge nosing in through Santa Cruz county from Sonora. We will maintain a week flow through most of the week, and may once again see a westerly flow return as a ridge builds over the desert southwest the second half of the week.
With the center of the high remaining north of us, models do show somewhat of a pressure gradient across the area tonight, with northeast winds expected between 5 and 10 mph.
148 PM EDT Sun Sep 13 2020 Scattered showers and thunderstorms this morning will taper off through the day as a cold front moves through the Ohio Valley. High pressure and a dry airmass will then build into the region through the early part of the work week. Cold front is pushing across the fa attm. High pressure will shift from north of the region to northeast of the area.
Immediate term concern is the low potential for a shower or thunderstorm this afternoon. With fog occurring across our east early this morning, light winds, and the fact that the low level moisture hasn't gone anywhere, thinking some fog may potentially develop across our east during the early morning hours. Weak upper low, currently over the Big Bend, will continue to move northeast through Monday night. Given this, have shaded just a bit below NBM highs for Monday, with most locations reaching the lower 80s.
Tracking a cold front slowly sinking southward out of southern ND into our CWA late this morning. Things look pretty quiet otherwise through the forecast period as upper level high pressure over most of the southwestern/south central CONUS lead to increasing heights over the region. This is leading to warmer temperatures for the next few days where the northern two thirds of the forecast area will see around average highs (mid 70s) today while highs for the southern third will be above average (mid to upper 80s). Everywhere will see well above average highs Monday as highs range from the low 80s to the low 90s. The period starts out with modest upper level high pressure over the western U. with ridging extending northward into western Canada.
High pressure will build over the next few days as the front that moved through the area last night continues to slowly move to the east.
Will see temps fall into the low to mid 30s for the Lake of the Woods and Red Lakes area under the ideal radiative cooling environment. Elsewhere lows will hold a bit warmer with some light mixing and a slightly warmer blyr.
235 PM CDT Sun Sep 13 2020 18Z surface data has high pressure from the western Great Lakes into the central Plains. A cold front ran from Wyoming east into Michigan.
Lows tonight look to remain in the lower 50s. For Monday, weak high pressure will shift off to the east with very weak lee troughing resuming. Highs tomorrow are expected to range from the upper 70s across the eastern zones to the lower 80s across the western zones.
/Tonight through Monday Night/ A weak inverted upper-level trough remains co-located with a weak stationary front from near Tyler TX, to El Dorado AR, to Memphis TN.
244 PM CDT Sun Sep 13 2020 A few showers and a possible late afternoon thunderstorm or two along the Tennessee-adjacent counties of Kentucky are all that remain from a cold front that has worked its way through the forecast area today. High pressure in NW Missouri will move towards the Great Lakes, resulting in the light northerly winds today, shifting towards northeasterly for tomorrow.
Water vapor shows upper ridge over the western CONUS with a short wave tracking eastward across southern SASK. At the surface, cold front associated with short wave extending from eastern MT through western ND. Cold front will sag into our northern half of zones and will limit highs across northwest SD, but very warm conditions expected across the rest of the area as upper ridge begins building into the Northern Plains. Warm front lifts eastward on Monday with deep mixing and breezy/dry southwest winds bringing potential Red Flag conditions to all but our far eastern zones.
Weak upper ridging will begin to breakdown with more northwest digging south but remain just north of the area.
The upper ridge is ruling the roost. The upper level high will build east across Utah and Colorado today.
Heavy rain continues across the Flash Flood Watch area just ahead of the cold front.
A cold front will edge into northeast AR, MO bootheel and far northwest TN tonight. The cold front will make little or no southward progress through the Midsouth on Monday, but winds will back to the norheast areawide toward late afternoon with the approach of what will be Hurricane Sally near the LA delta.
On Monday, a warmer day is on tap as southerly winds usher in warmer air.
1251 PM MDT Sun Sep 13 2020 Overview: An upper level ridge. Height rises /synoptic subsidence/ associated with the aforementioned upper ridge will foster dry conditions, clear skies, and above normal temperatures -- with daytime highs in the mid-to-upper 80s and overnight lows ranging from the upper 40s to mid 50s.
Although they get to it different ways, most deterministic and ensemble solutions suggest low PoPs at least NW Thu Night, and then also late Sun again NW ahead of a cold front where there is somewhat better model agreement.
200 PM PDT Sun Sep 13 2020 High pressure aloft will remain in control of the weather over the Southwest much of this week. The center will shift farther south by midweek, which will result in warmer weather here, and should help reduce the areas of smoke and haze. Cooler weather will arrive late in the week with an incoming Pacific trough.
158 PM MDT Sun Sep 13 2020 Overview: An upper level ridge. Height rises /synoptic subsidence/ associated with the aforementioned upper ridge will foster dry conditions, clear skies, and above normal temperatures -- with daytime highs in the mid-to-upper 80s and overnight lows ranging from the upper 40s to mid 50s.
1245 PM EDT Sun Sep 13 2020 A cold front moves through this afternoon and tonight. A cold front was pushing into southeast Ohio this afternoon and will continue to push slowly southeastward this afternoon and tonight. A high pressure will build in behind the front tonight and Monday, bringing drier and cooler air into the region.
As this high has built across the area today, skies have become sunny.
A dry cold front will move through the area Monday night.
Cold front continues to work southward thru northern SD and will begin to bring a shift to north or northeasterly winds behind it before stalling out. Lows should sneak into the lower to mid 50s in most locations Surface pressure gradient tightens for the daytime hours Monday with breezy to gusty southerly winds expected.
208 PM CDT Sun Sep 13 2020 Drier air is moving into eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas today in the wake of a cold front that currently resides across northern Texas.
1242 PM CDT Sun Sep 13 2020 Forecast on track as skies have cleared with a few cumulus developing across NW MN in the cooler blyr. Monday will bring much warmer high temperatures in the low 70s near the International Border, to low 80s near the South Dakota Border.
Smoke should begin to thin a little as the flow gets cut-off by an inverted trough that moves north into the desert southwest from Mexico. The broad ridging over CONUS will be interrupted midweek when Sally lifts north and interacts with the Polar Jet.
The cold front that is pushing this rain out is currently along a line from Logan to Harrison Counties in Kentucky. Through the rest of the night, as high pressure builds in from the northwest, skies will go clear, but it's going to take all night to clear out places in the Cumberland, Russell, and Clinton County area. Lows in southern Indiana will likely fall to the upper 50 and temperatures will taper warmer towards the south/southeast where south central Kentucky can expect to see the mid to upper 60s for lows in the morning.
The trough will linger just off of the coast Monday and Monday night which, when combined with the deep tropical moisture, will increase convection coverage to scattered to numerous. Increased cloud cover and precipitation will keep temperatures cooler Monday with highs barely reaching into the mid 90s.
Another cool evening is in store with lows in the low to mid 50s with patchy fog developing, especially in the favored cold air drainage areas.
211 PM MDT Sun Sep 13 2020 A ridge of high pressure over the Intermountain West will continue to dominate the weather pattern through the short term period. Unseasonably warm afternoon temperatures can be expected on Monday as the ridge of high pressure expands eastward. High pressure will remain over the the forecast area through most of the work week bringing mainly dry conditions and unseasonably warm temperatures to the region.
The boundary will lift back to the north during the day on Monday as low pressure organizes and deepens to our west and high pressure slides east of our area. So, going for highs into the 80s for the entire CWA, with warmest readings in the low-mid 90s in our west/southwest zones. The mid-level pattern over North America will favor a moderate ridge over the western CONUS, and trof over the eastern CONUS/eastern Canada. At that time, a decent chunk of energy will drive an upper trof east through the Rockies, and into the Northern Plains. That is when the area probably has the highest potential for seeing measurable rain.
A system brings strongs winds, cooler temperatures, and possibly some precipitation by end of the work week.
For this evening, low-mid level southerly flow is still strong enough that it will push Cuba's afternoon convection north across the Straits early this evening, reaching the Lower and possibly Middle Keys.
932 AM PDT Sun Sep 13 2020 High pressure aloft will remain in control of the weather over the Southwest much of this week. The center will shift farther south by midweek, which will result in warmer weather here, and should help reduce the areas of smoke and haze. Cooler weather will arrive late in the week with an incoming Pacific trough. Areas of haze and smoke are likley again today as flow around a large area of high pressure aloft continues to steer stagnated smoke high in the atmosphere south across SoCal. Lower level flow will also turn more southeasterly, which should help improve air quality in the lower atmosphere as well.
However, guidance suggests the front will accelerate this evening as another jetmax moves into the mean trough across the Upper Midwest. BW Chattanooga Airport, TN 87 70 86 69 84 / 30 20 50 10 30 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 83 69 84 66 84 / 60 40 40 10 20 Oak Ridge, TN 83 69 84 65 84 / 60 40 30 0 20 Tri Cities Airport, TN 82 66 81 61 81 / 60 30 30 0 10.
243 PM MDT Sun Sep 13 2020 An upper level ridge will be over the area tonight and Monday. Lows tonight should mostly be in the upper 40s to around 50 over the plains, with 30s to lower 40s in the high valleys. Highs on Mon should be in the 80s over the plains with mostly 70s in the high valleys.
(Tonight and Monday) Combination of a weak cold front moving through the area and a weak upper level disturbance is helping create scattered to numerous convection across portions of the area. A little cooler behind the front, with lows in the low to mid 60s and highs in the upper 70s and lower 80s. Areas around Junction and Mason, that saw less rain last week and have drier soil conditions, may be a couple degrees warmer.
A secondary cold front will backdoor into Southeast Michigan between 06-12Z tonight which will finally allow surface dewpoints to drop into the 40s.
253 PM EDT Sun Sep 13 2020 Synopsis/Discussion/Marine - Diminishing clouds this evening - Dry weather for most of the period - Cool down for the end of the week - Diminishing clouds this evening A ridge of high pressure in WI is forecast to build into MI this evening.
There is an upper level trough over the western part of the country and the flow over Texas is from the southwest. There is a weak cold front stretched across North Texas and a trough over the Gulf. Temperatures are a few degrees warmer than yesterday and dewpoints are about the same to a few degrees warmer. The upper trough in the west is generating showers and thunderstorms over the northwestern part of our CWA and the trough over the Gulf is pushing convection into our eastern area. The weak cold front will push through South Central Texas late tonight and early Monday.
217 PM EDT Sun Sep 13 2020 An upper trough and associated front will push through the region later today.
High pressure will bringing a period of warmer weather through the week. No other changes were made to the forecast this morning with a building area of high pressure likely bringing warmer temperatures through this work week.
Upper trofing from eastern Canada into the eastern U. This will occur amidst a background of slowing rising heights as the upper ridge in the western U. With high pressure in control, we will see temperatures near to slight below normal and comfortable humidity levels on Sunday. The other interesting item is the southern half or so of Missouri and Illinois will continue to have a milky looking sky, as a result of smoke from the western fires transported in southwest flow in the high altitudes of the atmosphere.
306 PM CDT Sun Sep 13 2020 High pressure is currently building into the region this afternoon as the main frontal system which came through last week continues to push off to the south and east.
1014 AM MDT Sun Sep 13 2020 High pressure will become centered across the eastern Great Basin today, then remain in place through much of the upcoming week.
An upper level ridge over the western United States today will slide east and flatten out over the center of the country early this week.
However, guidance suggests the front will accelerate this evening as another jetmax moves into the mean trough across the Upper Midwest. VFR with MVFR (possibly IFR) during this taf cycle as a cold front works through the region. CDG Chattanooga Airport, TN 71 87 69 84 67 / 20 30 10 30 20 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 70 84 66 84 65 / 40 30 10 20 10 Oak Ridge, TN 70 84 65 84 65 / 30 20 0 20 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 67 82 61 81 59 / 50 20 0 10 10.
328 PM EDT Sun Sep 13 2020 An upper trough and associated front will push through the region late today.
Afternoon temperatures should be around 10 to 15 degrees above seasonal averages on Monday, with slightly cooler air expected to move into the region for the remainder of the week. However, there could be a few factors that may mitigate the high temperatures and low RH that are expected Monday afternoon. Monday evening will see a weak surface cold front push across the international border from Canada.
505 PM MDT Sun Sep 13 2020 00Z TAF CYCLE Upper high stretched over the Great Basin and CO with a weak ely wave over se NM, initiating a few showers and tstms over the nrn high terrain and se NM plains.
Models still indicate that the CWA will be under the ridge axis for the next few days. Models keep the Upper ridge over the CWA tonight an Monday. The low level winds should be normal drainage patterns overnight with south easterlies on Monday. 5 C warmer than today's highs. There's a slight trend in the models toward a stronger ridge just upstream of us through the week.
18Z surface data has high pressure from the western Great Lakes into the central Plains. A cold front ran from Wyoming east into Michigan.
540 PM MDT Sun Sep 13 2020 Overview: An upper level ridge. Height rises /synoptic subsidence/ associated with the aforementioned upper ridge will foster dry conditions, clear skies, and above normal temperatures -- with daytime highs in the mid-to-upper 80s and overnight lows ranging from the upper 40s to mid 50s.
812 PM EDT Sun Sep 13 2020 An upper trough and associated front will push through the region tonight. Canadian high pressure will build into the region the first half of this week.
The inverted 500 mb trough axis and the associated surface troffing that brought rainfall to much of SW LA/Far eastern TX yesterday has moved SW and is approaching the TX coastline this afternoon. Sally is still expected to move along the base of a narrow 500 mb ridge axis with the system eventually slowing down and turning north during and after landfall. Some of the higher amounts could spill over into the far eastern parishes with 1 to 3 inches of rainfall associated with Sally through Mon and Tues. A 500 mb ridge axis then builds over the mid Gulf coast towards near weekend which will allow for a return of hotte and more rain free conditions.
Smoke conditions are forecast to improve as southwest winds aloft arrive in response to a deepening trough over the Eastern Pacific.
410 PM PDT Sun Sep 13 2020 Thick smoke will envelop the region through at least early Monday under ridging of high pressure. Low pressure over the eastern Pacific will allow for a weak system to move in off the coast tomorrow increasing cloud coverage and bringing chances for precipitation to the region in the evening.
855 PM EDT Sun Sep 13 2020 High pressure will remain over the Carolinas through tonight. Meanwhile, a cold front will approach from the northwest and cross the region on Monday. Canadian high pressure will follow and build across and offshore the middle Atlantic through mid week. A cold front initially over n-cntl and wrn VA will settle sewd across cntl NC Mon afternoon and into SC by by Mon evening. A strong, 1030 mb high pressure Canadian high will follow and build across the nrn middle Atlantic through 12Z Tue, with an associated noticeable nely breeze and cooler and drier conditions in the upr 50s to lwr-mid 60s.
Meanwhile, lower level ridging is nosing its way westward across the Bahamas and Cuba. Broad ridging will build westward across the Bahamas and Cuba towards the Keys and will maintain a light to gentle southeast breeze across Keys waters.
North to northeast winds to prevail through the Monday due to high pressure centered across Missouri. /Tonight through Monday Night/ A weak inverted upper-level trough remains co-located with a weak stationary front from near Tyler TX, to El Dorado AR, to Memphis TN.
Later in the week into the early part of the weekend it will be dry with warmer than normal high temperatures returning to the area.
700 PM EDT Sun Sep 13 2020 An upper trough and associated front will push through the region tonight. Canadian high pressure will build into the region the first half of this week.
Models keep the Upper ridge over the CWA tonight an Monday. The low level winds should be normal drainage patterns overnight with south easterlies on Monday. 5 C warmer than today's highs. There's a slight trend in the models toward a stronger ridge just upstream of us through the week.
High pressure is currently building into the region this afternoon as the main frontal system which came through last week continues to push off to the south and east.
Since then, a cooler, stable nocturnal boundary layer has settled in and only a few remnant light showers remain in Southern Middle Tennessee.
Upper trofing from eastern Canada into the eastern U. This will occur amidst a background of slowing rising heights as the upper ridge in the western U. With high pressure in control, we will see temperatures near to slight below normal and comfortable humidity levels on Monday. The other interesting item is the southern half or so of Missouri and Illinois will continue to have a milky looking sky, as a result of smoke from the western fires transported in southwest flow in the high altitudes of the atmosphere.
949 PM EDT Sun Sep 13 2020 An upper trough and associated front will pass through the region tonight. Canadian high pressure will build into the region the first half of this week.
Net result may end up being a tad warmer on lows in NW MN than we have but not worth changing the frost headlines. Will see temps fall into the low to mid 30s for the Lake of the Woods and Red Lakes area under the ideal radiative cooling environment. Elsewhere lows will hold a bit warmer with some light mixing and a slightly warmer blyr.
247 PM PDT Sun Sep 13 2020 Thick smoke will envelop the region through at least early Monday under ridging of high pressure. Low pressure over the eastern Pacific will allow for a weak system to move in off the coast tomorrow increasing cloud coverage and bringing chances for precipitation to the region in the evening.
/Issued 208 PM CDT Sun Sep 13 2020/ Drier air is moving into eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas today in the wake of a cold front that currently resides across northern Texas.
552 PM MDT Sun Sep 13 2020 A ridge of high pressure over the Intermountain West will continue to dominate the weather pattern through the short term period. Unseasonably warm afternoon temperatures can be expected on Monday as the ridge of high pressure expands eastward. High pressure will remain over the the forecast area through most of the work week bringing mainly dry conditions and unseasonably warm temperatures to the region.
717 PM EDT Sun Sep 13 2020 Northwest flow will weaken and become northeast by Monday as high pressure builds into the area behind cold front. This high will also provide VFR conditions with just thin cirrus. A secondary cold front will backdoor into Southeast Michigan between 06-12Z tonight which will finally allow surface dewpoints to drop into the 40s.
628 PM CDT Sun Sep 13 2020 (Tonight and Monday) Combination of a weak cold front moving through the area and a weak upper level disturbance is helping create scattered to numerous convection across portions of the area. A little cooler behind the front, with lows in the low to mid 60s and highs in the upper 70s and lower 80s. Areas around Junction and Mason, that saw less rain last week and have drier soil conditions, may be a couple degrees warmer.
Fire concerns will linger into the extended as the upper ridge remains anchored across the west.
808 PM EDT Sun Sep 13 2020 Aviation - Diminishing clouds this evening - Dry weather for most of the period - Cool down for the end of the week - Diminishing clouds this evening A ridge of high pressure in WI is forecast to build into MI this evening.
A cold front will start to move into the northwest portion of the CWA tonight. A cold front will edge into northeast AR, MO bootheel and far northwest TN tonight. The cold front will make little or no southward progress through the Midsouth on Monday, but winds will back to the norheast areawide toward late afternoon with the approach of what will be Hurricane Sally near the LA delta.