Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Made some minor adjustments earlier this morning for some of the low clouds and fog that was occurring across portions of the Missouri Valley. By midnight tonight, forecast sounding profiles indicate sub-freezing wet bulb temperatures for the James River Valley and east. A low pressure system will be over the Rockies Sunday evening, then gradually pushes northeastward Sunday night, with an area of precipitation north of it over the Dakotas.
/Issued 301 PM EDT Sat Apr 24 2021/ Warm front looks to be along or just north of the I-20 corridor. With some ascent provided by a 500mb trough/cold pool, do expect additional thunderstorms to develop. High pressure and dry conditions anticipated for the remainder of the short term period of the forecast. This ridge will be the primary weather inhibitor that keeps the area PoP free through the most of the extended.
Expect improving conditions as a low pressure system moves away from the region this afternoon. Some data is hinting at fog development, with the strongest signal in the lower Ark River valley at KFSM. Low pressure over AR will continue to move east away from the region.
153 PM MDT Sat Apr 24 2021 Low clouds and fog have scattered out early this afternoon with sunshine allowing for a warmer afternoon than yesterday as highs push into the 50s. Water vapor imagery shows a compact wave pushing through central Wyoming this afternoon, flattening the upper level ridge. Warm air advection and upper ridging will result in a warmer day Sunday with highs in the 60s and 70s; cooler in the Black Hills and far NW South Dakota along the northern periphery of the baroclinic zone.
(This evening through Sunday) A subtle wave embedded within the upper ridge will move across the central plains resulting in some high clouds for northern Oklahoma tonight and tomorrow. Temperatures will be much warmer with highs in the 70s (central/eastern OK) and 80s (western OK/TX).
After this afternoon's very warm temperatures (including a record breaking 89 degree high so far in Galveston - see climate section below for info), the area will have a nice cooldown tonight under mostly clear to clear skies with lows ranging from mid to upper 50s inland to the low to mid 60s at the coast. This onshore flow (along with very little cloud development) will help to warm temperatures into the low to mid 80s for most of the area. Sunday night's lows are expected to be just a couple degrees warmer than tonight's low.
245 PM MDT Sat Apr 24 2021 20 UTC Water Vapor Imagery indicated short wave ridging in place across the area with short wave trough moving across southern Idaho and towards the region. Confidence is high that temperatures will climb into the low 80s with afternoon RH values falling to 10-15 percent. The forecast period starts out with the Central High Plains under southwest flow aloft as a ridge sits over Minnesota and Wisconsin. A lee trough will be in place over southeastern Colorado and southwestern Kansas.
Surface front/trough is also slowly sliding through the region this afternoon. The actual cold front/dryline feature will not arrive and move across the forecast area until this afternoon. High pressure will then build into the forecast area with rather cool night, followed by plenty of sunshine and pleasant temperatures on Sunday.
/Tonight through Tomorrow Night/ Much calmer weather is in store for the Four-States region in the wake of this low pressure and weak cold front. By tonight, surface winds will begin to transition back to the south, and upper level ridging begins to move east. This ridging will quickly settle in and take hold, dominating the weather pattern over the course of this short-term. However, this ridging will do a decent job of warming things up in the short-term.
1146 AM MDT Sat Apr 24 2021 Another update this morning now that the low stratus is well on its way out to update temperature trends. It will be drier today as the wave of a weak trough exiting the state. On Sunday, a flat upper level ridge will slide east of Colorado with flow aloft slowly backing to the southwest. At the surface, a lee side trough deepens across eastern Colorado.
Highs will still warm into the 80s across the coastal areas east of Highway 77, but west of the highway, highs are expected to warm into the 90s, with upper 90s across the Rio Grande Plains.
1220 PM CDT Sat Apr 24 2021 Cold front sliding across the local area this morning, with a smattering of light pcpn just ahead of it. A ripple in the upper level flow expected to move along with the warming, with some sloping frontogenetic lift added to the mix, extending NE from a sfc warm front. The better forcing is generally focused across MN into northwest WI, and thus so is the higher QPF.
Warmer, highs in the mid 60s F today, lower to mid 70s F Sunday.
In addition to this, these supercells have exhibited strong rotation, and given the high low level CAPE present and potential enhanced low level stretching isolated tornadoes remain possible with any thunderstorm this afternoon into evening. SBCAPE values continue to remain in the 2,000 to 4,000j/kg range, highest southwest where higher surface dewpoints in the lower to middle 70's overlap temperatures in the upper 70's to lower 80's.
1115 AM MDT Sat Apr 24 2021 A transitory ridge is building in across eastern Utah and western Colorado this morning, bringing warmer temperatures and mostly sunny skies with it.
300 PM CDT Sat Apr 24 2021 Rain will continue to exit the southeastern half of the forecast area this evening from northwest to southeast as the axis of an upper-level trough responsible for precip shifts east of the region and mid-level heights begin to rise.
After this activity moves out, expecting the lower atmosphere to be pretty saturated. Sunday will see the weak ridging start to move of to the east.
123 PM EDT Sat Apr 24 2021 Low pressure passing to our south will provide rain chances late today and tonight, with the highest rain totals southeast of Pittsburgh.
1124 AM MDT Sat Apr 24 2021 Early morning upper level analysis has broad northern CONUS trof slowly shifting east as weak ridge builds over the northern Rockies. As the surface, Canadian high pressure resides over the Dakotas, with light and variable winds across much of the area. Temperatures will be a bit warmer today, in the 50s under variably cloudy skies. Upper ridge shifts into the northern Plains tonight as strong warm advection occurs over the South Dakota plains. Sunday will be very warm and dry as upper ridge axis crosses the northern Plains. A strong trof develops over the western CONUS on Sunday, shifting into the Great Basin area by Sunday night.
321 PM EDT Sat Apr 24 2021 High pressure and dry conditions will build into the region on Sunday with dry conditions and a warming trend through the middle of the week. Rain chances increase late in the week as a low pressure system crosses the area. Later tonight, low pressure will east of the area, with drying expected by morning. Overnight lows will range from the lower 50s west to the upper 50s east. Low pressure will be off the mid Atlantic Coast Sunday morning and continuing to track away from the area. This will allow high pressure along with drier air and northwest winds to build into the region with clearing skies through early afternoon.
The northern boundary of the precipitation shield could see some brief freezing rain mixed in at the onset, but no ice accumulation is expected. Regarding temperatures, expect lows tonight in the low to mid 30s with Sunday highs ranging from the lower 40s to lower 50s.
1042 AM CDT Sat Apr 24 2021 A low pressure system currently located over Eastern Arkansas will continue to track across the area today. The highest totals have occurred over East Arkansas and the delta area of north Mississippi where 1 to 1. Even where the highest totals exist this accounts for only about 25% of flash flood guidance. The trough axis associated with this storm system should shift into middle Tennessee and Alabama mid afternoon resulting in even less chance of thunderstorms.
1148 AM MDT Sat Apr 24 2021 Flow aloft flattens across the area today, with increasing winds at all levels this afternoon as surface lee trough deepens along I-25.
High pressure will build into the region overnight allowing for calm and pleasant weather tomorrow. However a weak cold front has entered the state and is pushing showers southeast as high pressure dries the the boundary layer. High pressure builds into the state tomorrow and temperatures will rebound into the mid-60s. Sunday night high pressure shifts eastward and an 850mb jet surges into the region.
220 PM CDT Sat Apr 24 2021 An upper level trough is to the east of the region with west upper level winds over West Texas and Southeast New Mexico.
This likely due to the veering of the low level winds and decreasing moisture. Some cold air stratocumulus will spread across the area late this afternoon and evening, but the rapid eastward movement of the cold core followed by ridging from the west will help the low level thermal trough shift east and the clouds to move out prior to dawn Sunday.
The swath of heaviest rain is now moving into central KY, and is associated with deformation just to the north of the upper low. Temperatures will continue to struggle in the low to mid 50s this afternoon under light easterly flow, heavy cloud cover, and widespread precipitation. Given the sunshine, temps are expected to recover to the low to mid 60s in spots, with a few upper 60s possible in the warmest spots.
432 PM EDT Sat Apr 24 2021 Passage of a trough will provide rain chances late today and tonight.
The area of low pressure to our south will continue to move east through southern TN dragging the inverted trough east with it. High pressure will move overtop of the region on Sunday giving us abundant sunshine. The GFS has been more consolidated with the mean upper trof forecast to move toward and over the region while the CMC and EC solutions and their ensemble means show more of a split flow evolution, with a low over the southern Plains in time, with more progression in the northern stream.
1129 AM CDT Sat Apr 24 2021 Updated for 18Z aviation discussion 18Z TAF discussion: Following a cold front that will move through the area this afternoon into this evening, MVFR ceilings will spread in and linger at most locations overnight. /15/ By Sunday morning, all of the precipitation will be east of our region and high pressure will be wedging south into the region from the north.
Dry conditions are prevailing across the area this afternoon after a cold front pushed through the area this morning.
A weak cold front will move through the area this afternoon, affecting mainly eastern terminals.
207 PM MDT Sat Apr 24 2021 The Pacific trough is swinging northward across western Wyoming and will spread showers across the area this afternoon.
Meanwhile, showers and storms continue across the far southeasT keeping temps relatively cooler at Troy and Eufaula. Best severe weather chances will continue to remain along and south of the current warm front, which is analyzed from Pickens County eastward to Lee County. PoPs remain highest south of the warm front, with scattered activity mentioned throughout the rest of the day elsewhere across Central Alabama. Shower and storm activity will continue to push off to the east overnight tonight, with increasing clouds expected as the low pressure system moves off to our east.
So, while we will have clear skies and dry air, winds will likely remain in the 5 to 10 mph ridge. This will keep temperatures from completely dropping off a cliff tonight, with lows in the upper 40s to lower 50s tonight, which will be slightly cooler than normal. For Sunday, although a cold front just moved through the area yesterday, temperatures will quickly rebound to warmer than normal, due to sunny skies and warm south to southwest winds of 15 to 25 mph.
Low amplitude ridging overhead will continue through the day tomorrow. The next upper level trough will be moving onshore on Sunday. Surface cyclogenesis in lee of the Rockies will develop in response to this trough moving into the western CONUS. The local weather will be affected in two ways from this: strong winds and warmer temperatures.
East to southeast winds this afternoon will switch to northwest later this afternoon into the evening as an area of low pressure shifts eastward through the region.
306 PM EDT Sat Apr 24 2021 High pressure centered near Bermuda supports moderate southeast to south breezes across the coastal waters of the Florida Keys. Temperatures are in the mid to upper 80s (88 in BPK), with dewpoints in the lower to mid 70s.
350 PM EDT Sat Apr 24 2021 Low pressure will track from the Tennessee Valley to the East Coast tonight.
510 PM EDT Sat Apr 24 2021 A dry and warmer day will continue today before some rain showers arrive late tonight into Sunday due to the passage of a cold front.
532 PM MDT Sat Apr 24 2021 20 UTC Water Vapor Imagery indicated short wave ridging in place across the area with short wave trough moving across southern Idaho and towards the region. Confidence is high that temperatures will climb into the low 80s with afternoon RH values falling to 10-15 percent. The forecast period starts out with the Central High Plains under southwest flow aloft as a ridge sits over Minnesota and Wisconsin. A lee trough will be in place over southeastern Colorado and southwestern Kansas.
We will move under weak northwest flow for about 24 hours as a ridge slowly builds over the west Gulf and stretches into the MS Valley region.
Cold front moving through our IL counties with gusty NW winds in the wake of the front. 2) A chance of showers north and cooler. Details: Tonight: High pressure building into the cwa with a window of clear skies, light winds and very dry airmass. This should allow for widespread frost and near freezing temperatures. Some valley/low spots may actually drop just below freezing for several hours. Sunday: High pressure shifts east with warm air advection light showers possible in our north later in the morning into the early afternoon. Mostly cloudy and cooler with highs near 50 along Hwy 20 to the lower 60s south.
/Issued 231 PM CDT Sat Apr 24 2021/ Clouds continue to clear the area this afternoon as the upper low that affected the area yesterday moves off to the east.
As high pressure settles in overnight, look for winds to decouple with near calm conditions areawide under mostly clear skies. As the high shifts to the east on Sunday, look for winds to shift back around to the SE between 5-10 kts with SKC prevailing through the remainder of the period. /Tonight through Tomorrow Night/ Much calmer weather is in store for the Four-States region in the wake of this low pressure and weak cold front. By tonight, surface winds will begin to transition back to the south, and upper level ridging begins to move east. This ridging will quickly settle in and take hold, dominating the weather pattern over the course of this short-term. However, this ridging will do a decent job of warming things up in the short-term.
A cold front approaching the FL panhandle this evening will continue to push to the southeast and will bring showers and isolated lightning storms early Sunday morning to northern Lake and Volusia.
717 PM EDT Sat Apr 24 2021 Low pressure will track from the Tennessee Valley to the East Coast tonight.
606 PM CDT Sat Apr 24 2021 (This evening through Sunday) A subtle wave embedded within the upper ridge will move across the central plains resulting in some high clouds for northern Oklahoma tonight and tomorrow. Temperatures will be much warmer with highs in the 70s (central/eastern OK) and 80s (western OK/TX).
714 PM CDT Sat Apr 24 2021 Cold front near a Slidell to Reserve to Patterson line at 7 PM CDT. We will move under weak northwest flow for about 24 hours as a ridge slowly builds over the west Gulf and stretches into the MS Valley region.
Surface analysis early this afternoon shows low pressure in place across Central Tennessee. allowing some dry air to arrive within the lower levels. allowing high pressure over the Plains states to build across the area overnight. Thus will trend for some low pops this afternoon and evening as the low departs. Meanwhile cool high pressure will be building across the surface and forecast soundings show a lack of moisture along with a mid level inversion that should prevent any convection. the models suggest broad ridging building aloft over the plains states with subsidence in place over the high valley.
A cold front with little moisture will pass through Sunday afternoon. Main rain shield will be exiting to the east by around 12Z as the low to our south slides off-shore. A mainly dry cold front from the aforementioned Canadian low will push across the CWA from mid- morning to the early afternoon. Cold front will deliver drier airmass with minimal cooling.
405 PM CDT Sat Apr 24 2021 A warm front will lift across northern NE into the Dakotas tonight as a weak disturbance moves across a flattened upper ridge. On Sunday, a thermal ridge will build into the region with h85 temperatures climbing to 16-21C by late afternoon.
The shower coverage is expected to increase within a moist southwest flow aloft late tonight and continue through Sunday as an upper trough off the coast moves inland. Instability near the trough will support a slight chance of afternoon thunderstorms in southeast Oregon. Temperatures will be several degrees cooler on Sunday, with highs only in the 40s and 50s.
549 PM CDT Sat Apr 24 2021 Rain will continue to exit the southeastern half of the forecast area this evening from northwest to southeast as the axis of an upper-level trough responsible for precip shifts east of the region and mid-level heights begin to rise.
could pick up briefly out of the ne/e tomorrow morning before settling again with high pressure building over the area.
955 PM CDT Sat Apr 24 2021 Regional 00z soundings show a drying airmass behind the departing cool front and mid/upper-level trof axis taking shape across the area which is corroborated by clearing skies. The dry airmass and clearing skies should also allow temps to drop to significantly cooler mins than what we saw this morning although with winds staying up a few mph should keep them from dipping all the way to saturation. could pick up briefly out of the ne/e tomorrow morning before settling again with high pressure building over the area.
/issued 220 PM CDT Sat Apr 24 2021/ An upper level trough is to the east of the region with west upper level winds over West Texas and Southeast New Mexico.
A cold front with little moisture will pass through Sunday afternoon. Main rain shield will be exiting stage right about 12Z as the low to our south slides off-shore. The mainly dry cold front from the Canadian low will push across the CWA from mid-morning to the early afternoon. The cold front doesn't hold any real punch of cold to it, mainly a good, steady drop to the dewpoints.
946 PM EDT Sat Apr 24 2021 Low pressure will track from the Tennessee Valley to the East Coast tonight. High pressure will then build into the Upper Midwest on Sunday.
737 PM EDT Sat Apr 24 2021 High pressure and dry conditions will build into the region on Sunday with dry conditions and a warming trend through the middle of the week. Rain chances increase late in the week as a low pressure system crosses the area. Surface warm front has shifted into the northern forecast area, close to the NC/SC state line. Storms from central GA will shift into this area over the next few hours with steepening mid-level lapse rates courtesy of a 500mb trough pushing eastward. Low pressure will be off the mid Atlantic Coast Sunday morning and continuing to track away from the area. This will allow high pressure along with drier air and northwest winds to build into the region with clearing skies through early afternoon.
420 PM CDT Sat Apr 24 2021 A warm front will lift across northern NE into the Dakotas tonight as a weak disturbance moves across a flattened upper ridge. On Sunday, a thermal ridge will build into the region with h85 temperatures climbing to 16-21C by late afternoon.
623 PM CDT Sat Apr 24 2021 Low pressure will continue to move away from the area, with winds decreasing over the next few hours.
After this activity moves out, expecting the lower atmosphere to be pretty saturated. Sunday will see the weak ridging start to move off to the east.
A broken line of thunderstorms which currently extends from near a Brantley, AL to Lucedale, MS line are oriented along a cold front. The cold front and line of storms will continue eastward out of the area early this evening.
Below normal temperatures will continue the remainder of the weekend as a cold front is still expected to move through late tonight and Sunday.
As the high shifts to the east on Sunday, look for winds to shift back around to the SE between 5-10 kts with SKC prevailing through the remainder of the period. /Tonight through Tomorrow Night/ Much calmer weather is in store for the Four-States region in the wake of this low pressure and weak cold front. By tonight, surface winds will begin to transition back to the south, and upper level ridging begins to move east. This ridging will quickly settle in and take hold, dominating the weather pattern over the course of this short-term. However, this ridging will do a decent job of warming things up in the short-term.
408 PM CDT Sat Apr 24 2021 A warm front will lift across northern NE into the Dakotas tonight as a weak disturbance moves across a flattened upper ridge. On Sunday, a thermal ridge will build into the region with h85 temperatures climbing to 16-21C by late afternoon.
517 PM MDT Sat Apr 24 2021 Low clouds and fog have scattered out early this afternoon with sunshine allowing for a warmer afternoon than yesterday as highs push into the 50s. Water vapor imagery shows a compact wave pushing through central Wyoming this afternoon, flattening the upper level ridge. Warm air advection and upper ridging will result in a warmer day Sunday with highs in the 60s and 70s; cooler in the Black Hills and far NW South Dakota along the northern periphery of the baroclinic zone.
A cold front currently located near I-65 continues through the remainder of the area this evening. A broken line of thunderstorms which currently extends from near a Brantley, AL to Lucedale, MS line are oriented along a cold front. The cold front and line of storms will continue eastward out of the area early this evening.
638 PM CDT Sat Apr 24 2021 A warm front will lift across northern NE into the Dakotas tonight as a weak disturbance moves across a flattened upper ridge. On Sunday, a thermal ridge will build into the region with h85 temperatures climbing to 16-21C by late afternoon.
Otw, winds are now northwesterly across the area with cooler air working in.
This evening through Sunday night The Pacific trough is swinging northward across western Wyoming and will spread showers across the area this afternoon.
Strong low-level wind shear (LLWS) is expected through the mid-morning hours at all terminals with nearly 50 kt of LLWS in the lowest 700 feet. Low amplitude ridging overhead will continue through the day tomorrow. The next upper level trough will be moving onshore on Sunday. Surface cyclogenesis in lee of the Rockies will develop in response to this trough moving into the western CONUS. The local weather will be affected in two ways from this: strong winds and warmer temperatures.
342 AM CDT Sun Apr 25 2021 The main challenge in the near term is precipitation potential with a system currently developing between exiting high pressure and low pressure approaching from the west. Due to the fairly progressive nature of the system, do not feel the higher amounts are a possibility, and have opted to stick closer to the mean ensemble value and previous forecasts, with a general one to three inches of snowfall.
Heading into the evening, a northern stream trough will send a cold front into southern MI. Northwest flow sets up in the wake of the cold front late tonight into Sunday. Expect mostly clear skies through much of the day with confluent mid level flow and high pressure at the surface.