Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
The deep reinforcing low pressure storm system centered over the Intermountain West has brought at least enough moisture to produce some scattered light to moderate showers in and around Phoenix and S-central AZ tonight. By this afternoon the precip will favor just the high terrain east of Phoenix as the low pressure trough starts to eject off to the east today. For the first half of the week broad troughing and dry cyclonic northwesterly flow aloft will dominate the region. Low temperatures will fall into the upper 30s to mid 40s across the lower deserts by Monday night and remain in the 40s into the second half of the week.
High pressure still remains across most of the eastern CONUS with a footprint extending into the Deep South. Eta still churns near the southern FL Peninsula and is heading toward the eastern Gulf as subtropical ridging across the East Coast & western Atlantic nudges it that way. As a result of the pressure gradient between Eta and high pressure to our northeast, we should continue to experience breezy easterly flow today.
Surface analysis shows a cold front just to the northwest of the forecast area. The northwest part of the forecast area can expect the high temperature to be in the morning, then temperatures should start to fall during the morning. Soundings indicate that there is a warm layer aloft that could cause there to be some freezing rain with a brief period of sleet before changing over to snow. There is also a short period of time where there is little moisture in the dendritic layer which would bring some freezing drizzle. By Tuesday morning, the northwest should be snow, while the southeast could still have some freezing rain or freezing drizzle.
Not planning on an advisory as surface temperatures may be just warm enough and soil temperatures and surface temperatures very mild after a week of warm weather so would only expect elevated surfaces to ice up a bit if any freezing precipitation occurs. Here we will continue to see a threat for sleet, freezing rain and snow, so will need to monitor for the potential for a winter weather headline of some type which would likely be in effect late tonight through mid Tuesday afternoon.
Temperatures will decrease throughout the day today in the wake of a cold front, with most of the area experiencing its daily high temperature early in the morning. This produces a northwest-southeast gradient of high temperatures from around freezing in the northeastern Panhandle to the 50s in central Nebraska. POPs begin to decrease in the afternoon before a second band of snow develops over southwest Nebraska due to the combination of a positively tilted trough drawing warm air into the region and decent convective instability as indicated by the RAP and NAM. Flow aloft will become zonal and high pressure will begin to build in at the surface over the Great Plains.
548 AM EST Mon Nov 9 2020 An anomalous upper level ridge will remain over the eastern seaboard into the first part of the week.
345 AM CST Mon Nov 9 2020 WV imagery shows the first trough of discussion the past few days has ejected into Canada, only to be replaced by a secondary trough that will pass through the Four Corners this afternoon, and has put West Texas and Southeast New Mexico under SW flow aloft. These sfc winds will veer to southwest and west today as leeside troughing strengthens on the Front Range ahead of the upper systems.
One change is that the low stratus that developed overnight in addition to the fog may stick around a little longer as the moisture fetch increases into the area due to a more southerly wind shift. Temperatures this afternoon will again climb into the low to mid 80s and then dip down into the mid to upper 60s tonight. Tuesday begins the first change in our weather pattern in several days as a weak cold front begins to approach the region from the northwest.
415 AM CST Mon Nov 9 2020 The current synoptic weather pattern across the CONUS is defined by a large, high amplitude trough across the western US with mid level ridging across the East Coast. Widespread showers and some thunderstorms are likely along and ahead of this cold front.
356 AM PST Mon Nov 9 2020 Dry weather and below average temperatures continue through mid- week, with freezing Valley temperatures expected Monday and Tuesday mornings. Upper level low over the UT/AZ border forecast to move across the Great Basin today and into/across the Plains States on Tue. The Ewd movement of the upper low will allow the Nly and Ely pressure gradients to relax and the winds to decrease this afternoon, so it won't feel as chilly today, although max temps will run some 4-10 degrees below normal in the Valley and double digits below normal in the mountains. Clear skies and light winds tonight will allow for strong radiational cooling in the Valley with min temps nearing or dropping below freezing at many locations.
Today Through Tuesday Night Surface ridging remains anchored over the eastern states with relatively warm and moist south/southeasterly flow continuing locally.
426 AM MST Mon Nov 9 2020 Western NOAM trough continues its slow eastward progression. A period of freezing drizzle may be possible in far eastern scentral SD before CAA changes all precip to snow there. Otherwise, mean upper trough will persist over the region through the week, supporting cool but seasonal and mainly dry conds in NW flow. Another cold front is progged Wed, with the bulk of CAA passing NE of the FA. This system will re-enforce cooler air for a day or so before a mild warm up late in the week.
629 AM EST Mon Nov 9 2020 Strong high pressure over the Mid-Atlantic region will shift off the Mid-Atlantic coast tonight and Tuesday.
423 AM CST Mon Nov 9 2020 Upper level low pressure system. will allow for afternoon temps to again warm into the low/mid 70s over the CWA. as the upper low lifts into the Plains. a cold front is progged to drop southeastward reaching the CWA around 12z Tuesday. The low pressure system quickly lifts northeast Tuesday morning reaching Southern Nebraska by the afternoon hours. At the same time the cold front quickly moves east southeast through Eastern Oklahoma Tuesday morning and across Northwest Arkansas early afternoon. Associated instability lifts northeast of the CWA in response to the departing upper low which will help to weaken the marginal severe potentials during the morning hours Tuesday. Behind the cold front.
718 AM EST Mon Nov 9 2020 Near-record warmth is expected for today and Tuesday but rain chance will return with approach of a cold front. Anomalously strong ridging will result in yet another day featuring near record warmth across the Upper Ohio Valley Region. Some higher clouds will increase through the day Tuesday, notably to the west, as moisture is funneled around the western Atlantic high and the approaching upper trough.
Upper level analysis across the country shows a deep longwave trough encompassing the entire CONUS west of the MS River, ridge east of there (centered just off the Carolina coast), and Eta coming into the southeastern Gulf.
Temperatures are mostly in the low 70s and should warm to near 80 degrees across most of the area. High pressure continues to be the main driver over the eastern half of the US. Warm and dry conditions can be expected today and into Tuesday before a cold front moves through Tuesday night.
1226 PM EST Mon Nov 9 2020 Near-record warmth is expected for today and Tuesday but rain chance will return with approach of a cold front. Anomalously strong ridging will result in yet another afternoon featuring near record warmth across the Upper Ohio Valley Region. Some higher clouds will increase through the day Tuesday, notably to the west, as moisture is funneled around the western Atlantic high and the approaching upper trough.
A cold front currently extends from Hamilton county NE to Ellis county. This cold front will continue to surge southward through the rest of the afternoon and evening. Much cooler highs are expected in the wake of the front with values peaking in the 50s.
A Pacific-type cold front will race across the area tonight, shifting winds to the west, then northwest, and ushering in a much drier airmass. Weak cold advection and the dry air will bring cooler temperatures tonight, although the breezy, downslope winds will counter-act that to a degree. Lows are expected to range from the lower 30s in the far southwest Texas Panhandle to lower 50s in the southern Rolling Plains.
310 PM EST Mon Nov 9 2020 Record warmth is expected again Tuesday but rain chance will return with approach of a cold front in the evening. Some higher clouds will increase through the day Tuesday, notably to the west, as moisture is funneled around the western Atlantic high and the approaching upper trough.
Otherwise, plenty of cloud cover will help result in another very mild night with lows bottoming out in the low to mid 60s. Some of this activity may be the result of weak diurnal heating (despite the mostly cloudy conditions) and have favored the highest coverage in the afternoon. Cloud cover will also help to keep temperatures more in check, with highs in the low to mid 70s being more common.
325 PM EST Mon Nov 9 2020 This afternoon we see an area of high pressure set up to our east along the Mid Atlantic coast. The upper level ridging will relent some Tuesday, as a negatively tilted trough axis pushes northward into the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes. Tuesday night, a cold front will push east toward eastern Kentucky and combined with right entrance region divergence aloft and low level jet will lead to a good shot of measurable precipitation mainly toward dawn once best moisture and lift arrive. High pressure is parked off to the east and will provide VFR conditions for the period.
A Pacific-type, dry, cold front will pass through the area tonight, shifting winds to the NW. Guidance has once again picked up a bit on shower activity across the Rolling Plains overnight as sfc winds veer NWRLY as winds ahead of the southwestern storm system mix downward further drying the lower levels. In the wake of the front drier and cooler air will fill in from the west.
101 PM CST Mon Nov 9 2020 The record breaking heat that we have experienced this first week and a half of November will come to an abrupt end tomorrow afternoon as a cold front currently stretching from the upper Midwest to the foothills of the Rockies sweeps across the bistate region. You have to go back to 1999 for a stretch of weather like this when the high temperature was at or above 75 degrees between 11/5 and 11/10. Windy Conditions on Tuesday: A strong and gusty southerly wind ahead of the cold front may approach wind advisory criteria.
A polar trough over the Wrn US eject NE into the Central Plains tonight into early Tuesday, bringing with it a weak Pacific style front late Tuesday morning. Humid conditions and lighter winds will result in some low cloudiness, patchy fog and possibly a few showers as the cold front enters the Hill County early Tuesday. With the trough ejecting NE, the late morning winds could take their time mixing to the surface, but NW winds and decreasing humidity should usher in mostly sunny skies by mid-afternoon.
It will become breezy Tuesday afternoon as a cold front approaches from the west.
Tonight, a cold front is forecast to move into northeast Oklahoma after midnight as an upper level low tracks across the Central Plains. It will be another warm and windy day today with highs reaching into the mid to upper 70s for most locations ahead of an approaching cold front set to move through the area late tonight and throughout the morning on Tuesday.
1036 AM MST Mon Nov 9 2020 Western NOAM trough continues its slow eastward progression. A period of freezing drizzle may be possible in far eastern scentral SD before CAA changes all precip to snow there. Otherwise, mean upper trough will persist over the region through the week, supporting cool but seasonal and mainly dry conds in NW flow. Another cold front is progged Wed, with the bulk of CAA passing NE of the FA. This system will re-enforce cooler air for a day or so before a mild warm up late in the week.
The low POPs over MN for part part of the weekend remain intact, but temp profiles should result in most or all of this pcpn to be of liquid variety, further reducing impactful weather chances.
Fcst max temps are in pretty good shape given the fact that we should obviously be warmer across our eastern half with the clouds breaking vs the west where they are likely to remain covered with clouds except for a peak of sun here and there.
Flurries have been seen across the area this morning, but no accumulating snow has been reported in the lower elevations.
3am discussion: Upper trough will linger of eastern Montana today. A band of snow associated with this trough will continue mainly over the northern parts and at times as far south as Petroleum and Garfield Counties this morning. Skies will become clear to partly cloudy from west to east in most areas this afternoon and evening with the high pressure.
1241 PM EST Mon Nov 9 2020 Dry weather continues as high pressure prevails into Tuesday.
So after coordination with NHC and surrounding offices, the Tropical Storm warnings have been dropped late this morning and replaced with a Gale Warning over the Atlc as tight pressure gradient persists between high pressure to the north and departing TS Eta. Warm and humid with max temps in the low to mid 80s.
West of the center of circulation, the western "eye-wall" initially was potent and squirrely, but eventually eroded as Eta moved west-northwest through the Gulf and Bayside waters of the Lower and Middle Keys. Tropical Storm force winds and rainfall were limited across the Lower and Middle Keys overnight, although this morning the southeasterlies started to crank up and the entire island chain eventually got their share of tropical storm force wind gusts. The KBYX radar detects a thicker band over Vaca Key and the Seven Mile Bride, and a thinner band over the Lower Keys.
1015 AM EST Mon Nov 9 2020 Strong high pressure over the Mid-Atlantic region will shift off the Mid-Atlantic coast tonight and Tuesday.
Issued by National Weather Service Binghamton NY 1257 PM EST Mon Nov 9 2020 Strong high pressure will remain over the eastern seaboard early this week.
1115 AM EST Mon Nov 9 2020 Dry weather continues as high pressure prevails into Tuesday.
A ridge of high pressure stretches from Atlantic east of the Carolinas into the lower Mississippi Valley. A cold front is currently pushing south and east across the plains while Tropical Storm Eta moves southwest in the gulf. Between the Atlantic ridge and the plains front moisture is being drawn north from the gulf. The ridge is also forcing Eta farther sw into the gulf. Through tonight and Tuesday the front and associated upper trough will progress east eroding the ridge. The cold front will push through the area by afternoon. Behind the cold front a cooler and drier air mass will filter back in for the remainder of the week, however temperatures will remain slightly above normal.
Although modest low level moisture is in place the main upper wave and cooler mid level temps will be displaced farther north, which will limit lapse rates and therefore instability across our area tonight. A more significant cold front will then push southeast Tuesday morning bringing cooler air into the area. Temps on Tuesday will be some 10 to 15 degrees cooler than today.
A surface cold front will enter our SEMO/SW IL counties by the end of the day, and push east across the area Tuesday evening.
Downslope flow into the TN valley has conditions quite warm for early November, with readings in the low to mid 70s already showing up in the 16z observations. DGS Chattanooga Airport, TN 80 61 75 67 76 / 0 10 30 70 70 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 80 57 77 64 75 / 0 10 20 70 90 Oak Ridge, TN 79 57 76 64 74 / 0 0 20 70 80 Tri Cities Airport, TN 79 51 75 61 74 / 0 10 20 70 90.
125 PM EST Mon Nov 9 2020 Dry weather continues as high pressure prevails into Tuesday.
131 PM MST Mon Nov 9 2020 20z surface analysis had ridge poking into the CWA pushing clouds/moisture south/east. Water vapour had mean upper trough from SK into the four corners area. Upper low spinning over the NV/CO border spewing some mid/high clouds into the far southwest.
A highly amplified upper air pattern continues over the CONUS through the near term, with a five-wave scale trough firmly entrenched over the western half of the country and a broad ridge located downstream over the eastern seaboard. At the surface, high pressure over the western Atlantic continues to ridge southwestward into the southeastern CONUS, maintaining a generally east to northeast low- level flow across the local area. Subsidence beneath the upper ridge and to the northwest of ETA's large scale cyclonic circulation will keep rain chances out of our local forecast through the next 24 hours, but moisture streaming in from Eta's broader circulation and influence will keep dewpoints elevated and allow cloud cover to linger.
1146 AM CST Mon Nov 9 2020 The current synoptic weather pattern across the CONUS is defined by a large, high amplitude trough across the western US with mid level ridging across the East Coast. Widespread showers and some thunderstorms are likely along and ahead of this cold front.
It will be another warm and windy day today with highs reaching into the mid to upper 70s for most locations ahead of an approaching cold front set to move through the area late tonight and throughout the morning on Tuesday.
(This evening through Tuesday) A weak cold front will move through the area Tuesday morning, resulting in northwest winds of 10 to 15 mph. Temperatures will warm into the mid 70s to lower 80s each afternoon, with lows ranging from the lower 40s into the mid 50s through the end of the week.
Downslope flow into the TN valley has conditions quite warm for early November, with readings in the low to mid 70s already showing up in the 16z observations. CD Chattanooga Airport, TN 61 75 67 76 62 / 10 30 70 70 50 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 57 77 64 75 62 / 10 20 70 90 60 Oak Ridge, TN 57 76 64 74 60 / 0 20 70 80 50 Tri Cities Airport, TN 51 75 61 74 61 / 10 20 70 90 80.
Issued by National Weather Service Binghamton NY 241 PM EST Mon Nov 9 2020 High pressure will move offshore tonight and Tuesday.
Temperatures vary with the amount of cloud cover, but all areas are still much warmer than normal with readings in the 60s and 70s at 1 pm. Cooler air will move in behind the front.
Currently have a large upper trough swinging through the Four Corners region this afternoon. As the upper trough begins to move NE toward the Central Plains, it will drag a Pacific front through the region later tonight. Not expecting strong winds behind this front but it will advect cooler and drier air into the region.
Strong easterly flow will start to decrease tonight as high pressure to the northeast moves further east while TC Eta drifts sw over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Temperatures will be in the lower 70s tonight and lower 80s Tuesday.
445 PM CST Mon Nov 9 2020 Rain showers moving across the CWA this afternoon are expected to continue into the evening as a cold front continues to move through. A strong temperature gradient has set up, with areas behind the front quickly dropping below freezing while areas ahead of it remain in the 60s. A flash freeze is possible this evening as roads remain wet and temperatures quickly drop below freezing. The main story in the forecast is Tuesday's low pressure system. This places the highest snow amounts of 6-8" from Burnett Count to the Apostle Islands. Ensembles further show this uncertainty as members between various models differ in placement of the highest swath of snow.
212 PM MST Mon Nov 9 2020 Weakening trof axis aloft produced some light snow this morning over east central Montana. Tonight into Tuesday sees 500 mb heights quickly building over the region ahead of another approaching trof developing over British Columbia. Winds will decrease Tuesday evening as upper trof moves into the northern Rockies and high plains.
323 PM MST Mon Nov 9 2020 20z surface analysis had ridge poking into the CWA pushing clouds/moisture south/east. Water vapour had mean upper trough from SK into the four corners area. Upper low spinning over the NV/CO border spewing some mid/high clouds into the far southwest.
315 PM MST Mon Nov 9 2020 Another cool and unsettled day across the Western Slope today as the midlevel low pressure system lifts across the region. Current temperatures are running 5 to 10 degrees cooler this afternoon, helping to generate more efficient snow rates in the higher elevations. The low will transition to an open wave this evening before quickly lifting northeast into the Plains overnight. Tuesday will see the aforementioned northwest flow become more zonal as another Pacific trough digs into the Pacific Northwest.
As a cold front approaches early Tuesday morning, winds veer to SW and W lifting CIGs to MVFR. A polar trough over the Wrn US eject NE into the Central Plains tonight into early Tuesday, bringing with it a weak Pacific style front late Tuesday morning. Humid conditions and lighter winds will result in some low cloudiness, patchy fog and possibly a few showers as the cold front enters the Hill County early Tuesday. With the trough ejecting NE, the late morning winds could take their time mixing to the surface, but NW winds and decreasing humidity should usher in mostly sunny skies by mid-afternoon.
529 PM CST Mon Nov 9 2020 The record breaking heat that we have experienced this first week and a half of November will come to an abrupt end tomorrow afternoon as a cold front currently stretching from the upper Midwest to the foothills of the Rockies sweeps across the bi-state region. You have to go back to 1999 for a stretch of weather like this when the high temperature was at or above 75 degrees between 11/5 and 11/10. Windy Conditions on Tuesday: A strong and gusty southerly wind ahead of the cold front may approach wind advisory criteria.
The positive tilt trough will transition to a negative tilt as it picks up steam and ejects northeast over the central Plains on Tuesday. At the surface, a cold front stretches from the U. The cold front approaches after 09Z, with showers and isolated thunderstorms becoming possible mainly to the north and west of Tulsa thru 12Z. MVFR ceilings will redevelop late tonight and persist into Tuesday morning until the passage of a cold front. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will accompany the cold front as it passes through. Gusty west to northwest winds and clearing skies will follow the passage of the cold front late Tuesday morning and afternoon.
Another cool and unsettled day across the Western Slope today as the midlevel low pressure system lifts across the region. Current temperatures are running 5 to 10 degrees cooler this afternoon, helping to generate more efficient snow rates in the higher elevations. The low will transition to an open wave this evening before quickly lifting northeast into the Plains overnight. Tuesday will see the aforementioned northwest flow become more zonal as another Pacific trough digs into the Pacific Northwest.
A cold front is currently draped over the westernmost portion of the state and will continue its eastward progression through the rest of the day into tomorrow. Precipitation chances aren't likely as there is an insufficient amount of forcing this far south of the trough and little moisture.
338 PM CST Mon Nov 9 2020 Stratus and strong southerly winds will remain in place across the region through the overnight ahead of a cold front that will work through the region Tuesday morning. Cooler airmass works into the region behind the front leading to falling temperatures on Tuesday.
323 PM CST Mon Nov 9 2020 Warm temperatures are here to stay for a while despite the passing of two cold fronts over the next 7 days. Ahead of an approaching cold front warm air advection will strengthen across the Midsouth.
/TAE Moisture will stream north from Eta, which is forecast to remain well to the south during this time frame, as cold front traverses the region.
653 PM EST Mon Nov 9 2020 Dry weather continues as high pressure prevails into Tuesday.