Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
622 AM EDT Tue Nov 1 2016 A backdoor cold front will dissipate in the forecast area today as high pressure ridges into the area from the north. The ridge will dominate through Wednesday.
359 AM CDT Tue Nov 1 2016 Water vapor loop indicated an upper level low was over northeast ND and was moving to the east about 20 knots. Another upper low was located over western Ontario. Upper trough over northern ALTA will move across Canada Wed. Cooler air will edge into the forecast area Wed as flow aloft becomes northwest. Upper level ridge will build over over western North America, then upper ridge will shift into the Northern Plains by Thu night.
At the surface, a weak cold front continues to slowly slide southeast across the forecast area as high pressure builds east across the High Plains. The above mentioned cold front is forecast to become quasi-stationary and extend northeast from western Kansas into southwest Iowa today leaving much of the forecast area on the 'cool' side. The surface front will finally be kicked south of the region by late Wednesday night as a deeper mid level trough drops out of the Dakotas.
344 AM EDT Tue Nov 1 2016 A backdoor cold front will dissipate in the forecast area today as high pressure ridges into the area from the north. The ridge will dominate through Wednesday.
A trof was moving onshore off the Pac. This trof will still be NW of the fcst area at dawn tomorrow. WAA/convergence will increase at the nose of the low-lvl jet in vicinity of the front tonight. Today will be cooler than yesterday. when an upper level low pressure systems ejects out of the desert southwest and spreads precipitation chances across the entire forecast area. a ridge of high pressure will amplify across the region for the latter part of the week as the aforementioned low pressure system cuts off across the desert southwest. While model guidance is in good agreement cutting off this area of low pressure across Arizona late in the work week. models begin to diverge with the handling of this low as it moves out of the southwest over the upcoming weekend.
Does look like there will be some wraparound clouds that will move into the area this morning and then move out this afternoon as the low pressure passes to the north and put in some higher sky cover to account for this. Models suggest that a mainly zonal pattern across the nrn CONUS will give way to a building ridge from the plains into central Canada.
An upper trough entering the west coast will dive southeast later today and tonight, with a closed low developing over northwestern Arizona by early Tuesday morning.
A weakening upper level trough is moving across Oregon this evening and tonight. An upper ridge will start building into the region Tuesday with gradual clearing by afternoon. The ridge will maintain partly cloudy skies Tue night into Wednesday. The low level airmass is much warmer Wed and should see high temps into the 60s for many locations. An upper low moving east along 40N latitude will continue east across northern California tonight reaching northern Nevada by late morning Tuesday. A weak piece of energy north of this low will be responsible for isolated to scattered showers elsewhere tonight into Tuesday morning as it moves across the region. An upper ridge will begin to build over the region Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night. The upper ridge will keep the area mostly dry Tuesday night into Wednesday.
The persistent ridge of high pressure remains over the area allowing for abundant sunshine, generally light winds, and temperatures near or at record highs early this afternoon.
Warm air advection is neutral with h850mb temperatures in the lower teens to around 10C. Ridge across the western CONUS with the exception to a closed low across southern Arizona mid week. The low will be the main focus as it eventually lifts to the northeast. Models still struggling with the timing and track of the low, which is not surprising as they typically struggle with a system like this. One thing models agree on is the cold air remains well to the north so even on the back side of the low temperatures remain above climo. If the low tracks further north, as the latest EC suggests cooler and a better chance for precip.
Water Vapor Satellite/00Z upper air analysis places a ridge of high pressure over the Southern Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley. A persistence forecast will continue across the Mid-South today as an upper level ridge of high pressure will bring sunny skies and continued near record to record high temperatures in the 80s at most locations. Normal high temperatures for early November are typically 20 degrees cooler in the middle to upper 60s. Short term models indicate the upper level ridge will shift slightly east on Wednesday with record to near record warmth to persist with highs in the lower to middle 80s.
854 PM EST Sat Dec 17 2016 Update A period of freezing drizzle will continue this afternoon across the southern forecast area.
This high will continue to slip southeast, and eventually turn our wind back to the southwest for Sunday, giving us some warm air advection.
Cold morning in store for all of southeast Arizona with most areas seeing low temperatures below freezing.
The ridge axis will remain across central Florida tonight, with a light south to southwesterly low level flow, and stronger southwesterly flow above the surface. Lows are forecast to be much warmer than last night, in the upper 50s to mid 60s. Temperatures are forecast to be warmer tonight, and not fall through their crossover temperatures significantly, or at all.
1148 PM EST Sat Dec 17 2016 Next surge of arctic air will spill into area overnight with mvfr stratus spreading back through terminals along cold front. Widespread virga prevalent at press time with sporadic obs of freezing drizzle mixed in. Temperatures remain firmly in the 20z making any non-freezing liquid precip difficult to come by this evening except perhaps the furthest south and east portions of the area. Given current temperature obs, this will set the stage for one more round of either light freezing rain or snow pellets south and east of the glacial ridge. HRRR output suggests light freezing rain, as opposed to freezing drizzle, given sufficient saturation this go around. Another packet of energy emerging from the southern plains will rapidly propagate northeast along the east flank of the upper trough approaching the northern Great Lakes.
An intense cold front will advance west to east across the forecast area overnight. An intense cold front will advance west to east across the forecast area overnight. A very sharp cold front is quickly pushing south across North Texas and Arkansas. Texas is home to a plethora of extremes this afternoon with the front draped across the state, temperatures in the low 90s in the deep south, single digits and snow in the panhandle, and blowing dust with winds gusting near 50mph out west along the front.
226 AM EST Sun Dec 18 2016 Above normal temperatures are expected to occur today given warm advection ahead of an approaching cold front. The cold front will cross the region late this afternoon, bringing showers to the area.
Should also be a fair amount of sunshine to start the day, which will actually inhibit warming some given the high albedo of the fresh snow. This again will be most pronounced in downslope areas east of the Buffalo Ridge. The stronger southwest winds will continue along and east of the Ridge tonight as well, and with the loose fresh snow across the region, the enhanced winds could result in some blowing and more certainly drifting snow.
UPDATE Arctic high pressure reigns supreme over the Northern Plains.
Areas that remain clear overnight will see lows around zero while areas that have clouds will be slightly warmer. Temperatures will warm slightly on Sunday and will see some increasing south winds over the higher terrain of eastern Oregon especially in the southern Grande Ronde Valley. Upper level ridge centered offshore with a northwest flow over the area.
1042 PM EST Sat Dec 17 2016 Another arctic cold front will push east across the area tonight.
A digging upper level trough early in the period will tend to flatten out and ride over the Bermuda-Azores Ridge which will extend over the Florida Peninsula.
/issued 655 PM EST Sat Dec 17 2016/ High pressure to the northeast, and a fairly tight pressure gradient over the region, will keep the wind out of the southeast through the TAF period. Temperatures will eventually wane past sundown but are maxing out in the low 80s along the immediate east coast to mid 80s inland. Similar conditions are on tap for tomorrow as upper level high pressure dominates the weather pattern.
332 AM EST Sun Dec 18 2016 Strong cold front knocking on the door of the NW CWA this morning with an isolated severe threat of damaging winds and possible brief tornado given the high shear low CAPE environment. a change from near the low 60s to 30s and 40s by afternoon. The NW tier may even reach the freezing mark by late morning which brings a slight chance for some black ice given any lingering sfc moisture. since the thermal columns indicate a quick loss of saturation within the low/mid levels.
As soon as you start to feel the cooler temperatures, the severe weather threat will be over for you. Below freezing temperatures are not far away and with the warm air aloft, we're still expecting a brief period of freezing rain and/or sleet for everyone on the back side of the line of showers/thunderstorms. As much rain is falling and considering the warmer temperatures we saw earlier today, the ice is going to have a very difficult time accumulating. However, there still will be a concern for elevated surfaces, such as bridges and overpasses to glaze over until the sun can melt any ice that forms after daybreak.
811 PM EST Sat Dec 17 2016 Passing rain, and freezing rain showers this evening will become a steadier rain later tonight in advance of an approaching cold front.
Strong high pressure near Bermuda continues to ridge southwest over Florida keeping a southeast wind flow over the area. High pressure near Bermuda will continue to produce southeast winds with warm and humid conditions that will lead to areas of dense sea fog through the remainder of the weekend.
1240 AM EST Sun Dec 18 2016 Another arctic cold front will push east across the area tonight.
Otherwise forecast is in good shape with high pressure exiting the region. Proton Previous Discussion Arctic high pressure moves out of Montana and into the central Plains tonight.
341 AM CST Sun Dec 18 2016 Arctic high pressure currently expands through much of the central U.
904 PM EST Sat Dec 17 2016 A warm front will move north across the Midlands tonight. Above normal temperatures are expected into Sunday with ridge along the coast and south low level flow. A cold front will cross the region late Sunday and cold air damming will again develop.
Thus, a non diurnal temperature curve is expected with the highest temperatures already observed. The winter weather advisory mentions snow amounts, blowing snow, and the low wind chills for today and tomorrow. Since start out cold in the first place, think a cooler solution is the way to go. Light and variable with high pressure.
It is near the back edge of the northern band where conditions will have to be monitored for a brief period of light freezing rain. Great detail has been given to the forecast through 18Z which appears to be the end of any freezing rain potential across the extreme Northwest which includes Marion and Winston Counties.
Temperatures quickly dropped after sunset (in fact Monterey cooled to the lower 40s around 6 PM). Temperatures are now mostly in the 30s to the lower 40s with a few spots already at or below freezing.
The cold front has moved through the Laredo and Corpus Christi areas and is pushing south towards the RGV likely clearing through the RGV airports between 4 to 6 am.
we are still seeing a few bands of "lake effect" snow flurries and snow showers along the Ozark Plateau coming off the relative warmer nearby lakes.
This will not last long though as the winds will start to pick up out of the southwest on the back side of the ridge axis, which will push the wind chills back into the advisory range by late this afternoon.
Areas that remain clear overnight will see lows around zero while areas that have clouds will be slightly warmer. Temperatures will warm slightly on Sunday and will see some increasing south winds over the higher terrain of eastern Oregon especially in the southern Grande Ronde Valley. Mostly VFR conditions with patchy IFR/LIFR due to freezing fog and low clouds. Upper level ridge centered offshore with a northwest flow over the area.
400 AM CST Sun Dec 18 2016 A sprawling arctic high pressure area now dominates over half the United States early this morning, including all of Texas save the lower Rio Grande Valley.
A prolonged period of freezing drizzle made a complete mess of the roads late this afternoon and into the evening across parts of northwest Arkansas back into northeast Oklahoma.
Tonight will be the colder than last night in most locations as sfc anticyclone slowly moves east across the mid-Mississippi Valley overnight tonight. Leaned toward cooler MAV guidance tonight due to the aforementioned favorable conditions.
High pressure will build in the Midwest on Sunday and nose into the Ohio Valley Sunday night.
Expect cold overnight low temperatures with single digits to teens across much of the high country. Cold and clear conditions will continue to dominate the forecast behind the cold front that moved through the area. An elongated trough will eventually close off east of the Baja Peninsula. With the separation of low from the long wave trough, zonal flow will once again flow over the region.
cold Canadian high pressure will continue settling over the region today which will result in the coldest day of the winter season so far with many locations east of the KC metro struggling to reach to double digits for high temps.
248 AM CST Sun Dec 18 2016 A positively tilted mid-level trough stretching from the upper Great Lakes to southern Plains early this morning will de-amplify as it accelerates northeast into an increasingly confluent flow regime, with building upstream heights over the north-central states.
334 AM CST Sun Dec 18 2016 Arctic cold front is now just exiting extreme se cwa, quickly replacing record high aftn temps for the date at svrl locations, with bitterly cold air.
Temperatures bottom out again this evening, then rise slightly after midnight as we start to get into a warmer (relatively speaking) southwest flow regime.
A few teens are possible under the influence of the high across the eastern zones.
Today will remain somewhat chilly with morning lows flirting with the freezing mark. Meanwhile, upstream pressure rises over the Great Basin allowed seasonably chilly air (and a quite dry airmass as well) to spill from the higher terrain of northern Arizona into lower desert communities yesterday; and with clear skies and light winds, ambient air temperatures have already plummeted into the 30s and lower 40s by midnight. Otherwise, heights and thicknesses begin to moderate during the day and confidence is good that afternoon highs will be realized slightly warmer than experienced Saturday.
249 AM MST Sun Dec 18 2016 Broad upper trough centered over the nation/s mid section with fast west-northwest flow aloft across the CWA. -15 to -25, were over the high plains with wind chills from -25 to -40.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 43 43 27 43 / 80 90 10 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 41 41 27 41 / 80 100 10 10 Oak Ridge, TN 40 41 26 41 / 80 100 10 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 44 46 25 42 / 80 90 10 10 TN.
Rain and a few thunderstorms are in place across the east, a mixture of rain, freezing rain, sleet and a snowflake or two across the west. The cold front is currently located about 20 miles east of Cumberland county. The freezing line extends from Portland to just west of Nashville and then just south of Waverly. To the northwest of this line is where the freezing rain and a little sleet and snow exists. Thus, will need to include a slight chance of snow and sleet in addition to the better chance of freezing rain, which still looks as though it will be the dominant precip type for our advisories.
1258 AM EST Sun Dec 18 2016 Passing rain, and freezing rain showers this evening will become a steadier rain later tonight in advance of an approaching cold front.
Highs will rise into the teens above zero west of the missouri river but remain cooler.
This is also the lowest temperature recorded at Lubbock since it dropped to 7 degrees on February 6th of 2014. Even with near full insolation highs will remain below freezing in the middle to upper 20s for most spots.
If this wasn't bad enough, dewpoints in the low 70s will make it feel 90+ degrees in many spots today and tomorrow.
If this wasn't bad enough, dewpoints in the low 70s will make it feel 90+ degrees in many spots tomorrow.
Expect substantial variability in temperatures based on specific location as hilltops could be several degrees warmer than low areas. The first half of the week will be quiet weather-wise with split upper level flow and broad surface ridging to the south and east of the state.
245 AM CST Sun Dec 18 2016 The 00Z/18th upper air analysis depicted a deep longwave upper trough, extending from Hudson Bay through the Central/Southwestern CONUS.
1009 PM MST Sat Dec 17 2016 Current surface analysis shows arctic high pressure centered over western ND. Lows tonight across northeast WY and much of far western SD will likely be in the late evening, with steady or slowly rising temperatures after midnight, as arctic high moves east of the area and west- southwest winds start to bring warmer air and some clouds into the area.
140 AM MST Sun Dec 18 2016 Today will remain somewhat chilly with morning lows flirting with the freezing mark. Meanwhile, upstream pressure rises over the Great Basin allowed seasonably chilly air (and a quite dry airmass as well) to spill from the higher terrain of northern Arizona into lower desert communities yesterday; and with clear skies and light winds, ambient air temperatures have already plummeted into the 30s and lower 40s by midnight. Otherwise, heights and thicknesses begin to moderate during the day and confidence is good that afternoon highs will be realized slightly warmer than experienced Saturday.
1147 PM EST Sat Dec 17 2016 Another arctic cold front will push east across the area tonight.
It is looking like we will probably see fairly widespread freezing temperatures in the Cadiz Basin zone of southeast San Bernardino County.
1044 PM EST Sat Dec 17 2016 A warm front will move north across the Midlands tonight. Above normal temperatures are expected Sunday given warm advection ahead of an approaching cold front. The cold front will cross the region late Sunday and cold air damming will again develop.
253 AM CST Sun Dec 18 2016 Upper trough that brought the very cold wx to the area pushing east as secondary wave moves down across the Rockies.
The deep, cold long wave trough continues to settle into the central CONUS with water vapor imagery showing short waves/PV anomalies through IL and MN/WI.
Expect cold overnight low temperatures with single digits to teens across much of the high country. Look for cold temperatures tonight as light winds and clear skies allow temperatures to drop into the single digits to teens across much of the high country.
A broad high pressure system centered over the Western North Atlantic stretches west across the Florida Peninsula. Temperatures are in the upper 70s with dewpoints in the lower to mid 70s.
Upper ridging across the western third of the CONUS is bringing warmer temperatures into those regions and soon into the northern plains. Wind chills in areas where temps have remained well below freezing remain in warning criteria so will keep headlines out for now. The coldest highs will be over central SD where it will take longer for the warmer air to advect in.
348 AM EST Sun Dec 18 2016 Light snow associated with the upper level trough moving through the Great Lakes exited eastward by press time. It will take much of the day before the low level thermal trough builds fully over the Great Lakes, and it will be retreating back into Canada as it does build eastward. There is also a nose of high pressure shown building into Lower Michigan overnight.
More of the same expected today as a large upper ridge remains in control over the lower MS/OH Valleys. The ridge is expected to slowly break down over late in the work week and this will allow a weak cold front will sag south toward the region.
536 AM MDT WED SEP 7 2016 An upper trough crossing the northern plains today will bring isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms to the forecast area from this morning into the afternoon. The area with the highest PoPs today will be located from the Black Hills northward across northwestern South Dakota from this morning into the early afternoon in the region of the strongest mid-level frontogenesis.
High pressure overhead with moisture confined to only the lower levels will limit shower and thunderstorm activity today. Temperatures cooled into the low to mid 70s northern areas to the upper 70s along the I-10 corridor to the lower 80s along the immediate coast. The weaker mid level flow around the dome of high pressure is now upon us with the moisture rich deeper and stronger mid level flow now across the central Gulf extended west into southern and central Texas.
High temperatures forecast to climb into the low to mid 90s today.
/Issued 349 AM EDT WED SEP 7 2016/ High pressure and dry weather will continue to dominate the sensible weather through Thursday. A weak low pressure trough will settle across portions of northern GA by tomorrow as the high center gets shunted a little south, but moisture is so limited, pops are not expected. NListemaa Dry weather continues into the extended periods as upper-level ridging persists. Ridge weakens across the southeast through the weekend as a strong short wave pushes into the Great Lakes region. Southern portions of long wave trough will help move associated cold front to the south and east.
The low clouds and fog have dissipated and only high clouds from the remnants of Hurricane Newton remain today. With the dry air and diurnal gusty winds in the higher country, the red flag warning issued for this afternoon is appropriate. Still some fire weather concerns for the high country - see Fire Weather section for details. For tonight, the high level cloud deck is expected to shift back slowly eastward with forward progression of the northern U. trough. Dry westerly flow will be over the region on Thursday ahead of an upper level trough over the Pacific NW.
945 AM EDT WED SEP 7 2016 High pressure will extend over the area from the south through the end of the week with low pressure well to the north.
Upper level low west of the Dry Tortugas will push west/southwest farther away from the area while subsidence/drying aloft holds sway over the north half of the peninsula. Divergence on east side of upper level low will pull farther away though, so support for convection looks a little weaker than yesterday.
404 AM PDT WED SEP 7 2016 Upper level high pressure over the area is expected across the Central California Interior for the next several days.
The upper level trough over the Great Basin will exit the area today.
As of the latest 07/00Z data, there is some agreement to the global models and probabilistic data showing a upper level trough setting up over southern New Mexico advecting moisture from Hurricane Newton into our region with the 700 hPa theta-e axis set up across the central Panhandles by Wednesday afternoon. Best chances of precipitation at this time as seen in the latest 00Z data will be across the central and eastern Panhandles downstream of the main trough axis in the SW 850-700 hPa mean flow. As the upper level high pressure compresses across the southeastern CONUS, the moisture transport form the tropical system will also shift further to the southeast as we go through the work week.