Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Features include a weak area of low pressure along the southern periphery of the jet stream in western Texas, a powerful longwave trough in the vicinity of the Upper Midwest, and a formidable anticyclone centered in the Western Atlantic. Locally, owed to the proximity to this anticyclone, skies are mostly sunny to partly cloudy across the island chain, and KBYX radar is echo- free. Current temperatures are generally in the lower 80s at most island communities. The area of high pressure associated with the aforementioned anticylonic flow across the Florida Peninsula will slowly trek eastward over the next several days. This will occur as the disturbance over Texas will gradually merge with the longwave trough, allowing for the trough to continue to become strongly negatively tilted.
242 PM EDT Tue Apr 12 2022 Warmer through Wednesday with a chance of scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms.
Ahead of the low, rain and isolated storm chances will continue. The environment will be conducive for organized severe storms as the low pushes across however, the later the evening/night becomes the less instability there will be. Storms should get pushed south and east as a cold front catches up to the evening activity.
1205 PM EDT Tue Apr 12 2022 Weak cold front early this morning, quickly returning as a warm front Tuesday/Tuesday night.
Cooler Weather Returns. The big question that is becoming a bit more clear is the northern location of the warm front around initiation time. With SBCAPE over 3200 j/kg into the early evening along the retreating warm front and 0-1km SRH over 300 to 500 m2/s2 and long hodographs, there remains a potential for discrete supercells and a strong and relatively longer lived tornado or two in that area. If storms develop slightly north of the warm front, then a large hail threat would likely dominate the mode. Any supercells that develop will move northeast/east with time along or near the warm front. Lows tonight will drop to the mid 30s west to the lower 50s east.
158 PM EDT Tue Apr 12 2022 Weak cold front early this morning, quickly returning as a warm front Tuesday/Tuesday night.
A potent upper low will move from the Intermountain West to southeastern Montana today, and into the northern Plains tonight. Given the strength of the 850mb thermal ridge and with strong insolation, temperatures will soar into the 90s this afternoon.
1130 AM MDT Tue Apr 12 2022 The approaching trough continues to sweep to the east, currently located in far southern MT just west of YNP. 5 inches have been observed just east of RIW overnight, while KLND remains in light precip just above freezing, resulting in mostly liquid precip. This portion of the winter storm threat will be most evident along I-90, which is prone to perpendicular north winds and remnant snowfall closer to the main deepening trough. The trough moves into the Dakotas tonight, allowing snowfall to end.
The broadening trough across the southwest CONUS is producing a wide swath of southwest upper level flow that will continue to mix down toward the surface for the remainder of this afternoon and early evening evening. A much cooler and drier airmass will be in place tomorrow, with surface dewpoints dropping into negative values. A Fire Weather Watch for tomorrow has been upgraded to a Red Flag Warning despite cooler temperatures. Ejection of the potent upper low and trough east of the area late Wednesday will leave behind a lower amplitude mostly zonal westerly flow aloft.
Light snow showers will persist over the higher elevations through the remainder of this morning. Instability associated with an upper trough will promote more snow showers this afternoon. Some of those showers will produce bursts of moderate to heavy snowfall, especially over the higher terrain. A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect for the remainder of today for the higher elevations in southwest Idaho.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 62 82 58 73 48 / 20 20 90 30 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 62 82 58 71 45 / 20 20 80 40 10 Oak Ridge, TN 60 81 56 72 45 / 20 30 80 30 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 55 79 56 69 42 / 10 20 50 50 10.
Currently, a deep upper low continues to progress into the northern Plains. This has lead to continuing critical fire weather conditions, as the primary cold front and colder temperatures lagging in the Panhandle. The cold advection continues into tomorrow and this (along with H85 temps remaining below freezing) helps to keep temperatures on the cooler side tomorrow. Unfortunately, even with highs remaining cooler, the exceptionally dry air will continue to lead to a fire weather threat. Elevated H7-H85 flow on the order of 35-45kts will lead to strong northwesterly winds as the higher flow is mechanically mixed to the surface.
A large area of low pressure continues to bring wintry weather and gusty winds to the Northern Rockies.
115 PM MST Tue Apr 12 2022 High pressure will build into the region the remainder of the week resulting in widespread dry weather and gradually warming temperatures. A seasonally deep PV anomaly was progressing through the Great Basin early this afternoon with the trailing trough axis and midtropospheric front only slowing descending through northern Arizona.
Strong and gusty south winds have persisted across northeast Ok this afternoon and with a mixed BL underneath the cap, expect wind gusts to persist likely beyond 00z until sfc gradient begins to relax in closer proximity to approaching cold front. At the same time a sharp dry line was located across far western OK, and is not expected to move much before eventually being overtaken by cold front later tonight. Later tonight the front will push into northeast OK and this will offer the highest probability of storms, with a more linear mode. Considerably cooler temps should preclude a Red Flag warning.
Wednesday will be much cooler compared to today behind the Pacific front.
Will see snow showers continue to wrap directly around the low in the Devils Lake area then spread east into the afternoon and evening.
A cool upper level trough will keep showery weather and a low snow level over Western Washington through the end of the week.
Models show a cold front moving across the area tonight into Wednesday with winds shifting to the NW/N. Despite cooler temperatures (highs 60s and 70s) Wednesday, gusty winds, low RH, and dry fuels will lead to near critical/critical fire weather conditions across western portions of the area.
Much warmer overnight temperatures are expected late week. In any case, be prepared for another round of sub-freezing temperatures in warmer locations tonight, with hard freezes (below 28 degrees) in colder lower valleys and in Sierra valleys.
55 A warm front continues near the Missouri border and continues to move north. A cold front will be approaching from the Plains. Today Through Wednesday Night An upper low over the northwest U. This upper low will continue to move east today as an upper ridge builds over the east coast. A warm front in the north part of the state will move into Missouri this morning. Patchy fog is expected north of the warm front. A cold front in the Rockies will move into the Plains tonight. The warm and moist air ahead of the cold front will destabilize the atmosphere again this afternoon for more showers and thunderstorms. Another round of thunderstorms is expected on Wednesday as the cold front moves through the state.
Wednesday will be a much cooler day with highs generally in the 50's and 60's.
More of the same tomorrow, but with slightly warmer afternoon temps in the upper 30s to lower 50s. An additional inch or so looks possible for elevations near 6000ft with 3-4" expected for the highest elevations.
Currently, upper level low centered over Billings MT/Big Horn Mountain area bringing south/southwesterly flow aloft across the Dakotas. Multiple embedded waves lifting north/northeast aloft and ahead of the main upper low will interact with mid level frontogensis to maintain the moderate to heavy snow this afternoon and evening, with some decrease in intensity across southern areas by early this evening. The track of the upper low along the ND/SD border area will maintain snow over all of ND through tonight, just more intense farther north. Upper low stalls over central ND/SD Wed morning, then starts to lift slowly east-northeast during the day Wed through Wed night. As the low starts to move east-northeast Wed night, will see snow intensities wind down but still will see wrap around with additional accumulations, highest north central and northeast.
Mainly dry and warmer weather is expected for Tuesday.
618 PM EDT Tue Apr 12 2022 Warmer through Wednesday with a chance of scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms.
1021 PM EDT Tue Apr 12 2022 A mean layer ridge continues to spin across the Western Caribbean. High pressure over the western North Atlantic will result in moderate to fresh east to southeast breezes tonight through Wednesday night.
743 PM EDT Tue Apr 12 2022 Warmer through Wednesday with a chance of scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms.
618 PM CDT Tue Apr 12 2022 Key Points: * Severe weather expected tonight as strong cold front barrels through the area.
The passage of the convection has left some breaks in the low clouds, resulting in what is expected to be a brief period of VFR conditions early this evening. HRRR soundings also show significant moisture from the low-levels to the upper-levels.
403 PM CDT Tue Apr 12 2022 Mid level short wave energy ahead of a deep trof out over the Rockies and northern Plains will lift northeast through the lower/mid MS River and lower OH Valley regions later tonight within a warm sector regime that has become established over much of the forecast area. A strong mid level short wave is expected to eject northeast around the parent upper low over the Dakotas Wednesday afternoon and evening. The severe threat will likely begin by early afternoon out in SEMO, then progress east through the lower OH River Valley during the early to mid evening hours.
As the cold front invades during the predawn hours, additional (albeit non-severe) showers and storms may develop along it. Cool, dry advection behind the front will result in a sunny but noticeably cooler day.
Discussion: We start the period with an upper low over the Northern Plains and a ridge centered to our east. The upper low will deepen and move east during the period and the upper trough to our west will approach the Mississippi Valley. At the surface a cold front will move in the Mississippi Valley by late Wednesday. Some weak short wave energy ejecting out ahead of the main upper trough will brush by to our west/northwest and may bring some showers to our area late tonight/early Wednesday especially north and western counties. Winds on Wednesday will become gusty from the south and southwest by afternoon as the pressure gradient tightens out ahead of the approaching cold front.
635 PM CDT Tue Apr 12 2022 Expect scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms areawide, with the highest potential over central and southern Arkansas.
725 PM EDT Tue Apr 12 2022 Low level southeast winds will continue across the area with ridge axis of high pressure over the west Atlantic remaining just north of the area into tonight. This will continue to moderate temps, with lows tonight again higher than the previous night, ranging from the low to mid 60s over much of the area, and potentially in the upper 60s to near 70 degrees along coastal areas south of the Cape where onshore flow remains elevated.
Mid level short wave energy ahead of a deep trof out over the Rockies and northern Plains will lift northeast through the lower/mid MS River and lower OH Valley regions later tonight within a warm sector regime that has become established over much of the forecast area. A strong mid level short wave is expected to eject northeast around the parent upper low over the Dakotas Wednesday afternoon and evening. The severe threat will likely begin by early afternoon out in SEMO, then progress east through the lower OH River Valley during the early to mid evening hours.
1049 PM EDT Tue Apr 12 2022 Retreating high pressure will shift to the East Coast overnight.
still in the 70s but much cooler over much of the region now in the lower to mid 60s. Did have to raise low temperatures southern two thirds of the forecast area with current guidance a few degrees warmer.
The cool and and unsettled weather will continue, as troughing remains across the Pacific NW.
814 PM EDT Tue Apr 12 2022 Ridging over Florida both at the surface and aloft kept conditions warm and dry today.
Cold front will move into northeast Oklahoma after Midnight with strong to potentially severe storms developing along/north of boundary late tonight. There may be a small window by late morning for an enhanced tornado threat as surface based instability increases but obviously the higher threat will likely be east of CWA. Considerably cooler temps should preclude a Red Flag warning.
750 PM EDT Tue Apr 12 2022 Retreating high pressure will shift to the East Coast overnight. The Ohio Valley will be in the warm sector tonight ahead of approaching low pressure located over the upper Midwest.
HRRR soundings also show significant moisture from the low-levels to the upper-levels.
A line of thunderstorms is expected to develop over Iowa and southern MN this evening along a cold front. If we can manage that, then the low level shear is strong and would support a brief spin-up tornado if we can get a good enough storm.
615 PM EDT Tue Apr 12 2022 Warmer weather will continue into Wednesday after a warm front passes through the area tonight. A few showers are possible late Wednesday ahead of an approaching cold front.
743 PM EDT Tue Apr 12 2022 Warmer weather will continue into Wednesday after a warm front passes through the area tonight. A few showers are possible late Wednesday ahead of an approaching cold front.
High pressure will build into the region the remainder of the week resulting in widespread dry weather and gradually warming temperatures. A seasonally deep PV anomaly was progressing through the Great Basin early this afternoon with the trailing trough axis and midtropospheric front only slowing descending through northern Arizona.
NListemaa Thursday night, the cold front will exit the area and zonal upper level flow will move in for the weekend.
This is going to fuel (at a minimum) a robust line of showers and thunderstorms along a cold front due to pass through Middle TN this evening.
1232 AM MST Wed Apr 13 2022 High pressure will build into the region the remainder of the week resulting in widespread dry weather and gradually warming temperatures.
A very cold start to the morning will give way to breezy, dry and warmer conditions later today through the weekend.
This, along with forcing from the mid level closed low and strong low level frontogensis, will keep snowfall rates in the moderate to heavy categories here through much of the day and into the evening. The low starts to become stacked as it drifts east through the day, nearly stalling out which will keep light snow lingering over much of the west and central into Thursday. By Thursday night, the low finally kicks out into the Upper Great Lakes and snow diminishes to the northeast. Highs will only reach into the lower 20s to lower 30s today with another round of strong gusty winds.
136 AM EDT Wed Apr 13 2022 Warmer today with a chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms. A strong cold front Wednesday night into Thursday morning brings more showers and isolated thunderstorms.
Look for this low to continue to slide east-northeast, dragging the MCS a touch more northward over the next several hours, while weakening in over strength as well.
(Today and tonight) Cold front continues to progress southward this morning, with shower and thunderstorm activity so far mainly confined to Kansas outside of some earlier activity across Woods/Alfalfa counties. With a very dry airmass remaining in place this will help temperatures drop quickly tonight, with some areas across northern/western Oklahoma approaching the freezing mark in some of the usual colder locations. Given some remaining uncertainty regarding the coverage of freezing temperatures will opt to allow the day shift to continue to refine the forecast and decide on any freeze products.
There should be a lull in thunderstorm activity between this system and the cold front which will be approaching from the west. Expect scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms areawide, with the highest potential over central and southern Arkansas.
308 AM CDT Wed Apr 13 2022 The cold front is currently making its way southward across the southern Texas Panhandle/northerly South Plains. This will result in relative humidity dropping into the low to mid single digits despite cooler temps. This will allow for temps to drop into the low/mid 30s on the Caprock and mid/upper 30s across the Rolling Plains. At the surface, the 1018 mb anticyclone is expected to be located across the middle Mississippi River Valley, veering winds to the south over the High Plains region. Temperatures will respond accordingly, with highs about 5-10 deg F warmer than the previous day.
Currently, a deep upper low continues to progress into the northern Plains. This has lead to continuing critical fire weather conditions, as the primary cold front and colder temperatures lagging in the Panhandle. The cold advection continues into tomorrow and this (along with H85 temps remaining below freezing) helps to keep temperatures on the cooler side tomorrow. Unfortunately, even with highs remaining cooler, the exceptionally dry air will continue to lead to a fire weather threat. Elevated H7-H85 flow on the order of 35-45kts will lead to strong northwesterly winds as the higher flow is mechanically mixed to the surface. Flow aloft remains elevated as the parent upper low continues to slowly exit off to the east. Behind the aforementioned storm system, flow briefly transitions zonal aloft before heights rise and an upper ridge begins to build across the Rockies.
Subsidence behind the departing MCS will allow for at least partial clearing and good warming this afternoon into the lower 80s.
Above this extra moisture is flowing into the region allowing snow to form over the area in the northwest quadrant of the low.
The cap will mix out later this morning leaving steep lapse rates over the area thus setting the state for potentially two severe weather episodes as an upper level trof becomes negatively tilted and approaches the area. The negative tilt of the trof will allow for favorable large scale upper motion.
(Today) A cold front has entered northeast Oklahoma early this morning and is approaching the Interstate 44 corridor at this time.
As far as temperatures, sub-zero 925mb temperatures are prevalent throughout the forecast area from daybreak Wednesday through midday Thursday, briefly mixing a few degrees above freezing over southern portions of the area during the afternoon/early evening. Meanwhile, 850mb temperatures fall to several degrees below 0C, with ensembles showing these values to be in the lowest 5% of climatology for mid April.
A cold upper level trough will keep showery weather and a low snow level over Western Washington through the end of the week.
This low will lift northeast through this evening, and should bring the warm frontal boundary into far southern and southeast Minnesota after 00Z.
Today Through Wednesday Night An upper low over the northern Plains continues to move east. This upper low will move into the Midwest tonight as an upper ridge builds over the east coast. Warm and moist air will continue filtering into Arkansas today ahead of an approaching cold front. The warm and moist air ahead of the cold front will destabilize the atmosphere again this afternoon for more showers and thunderstorms.
222 AM CDT Wed Apr 13 2022 The upper low that brought showers and storms to our region will exit the Northern Plains today and leave westerly flow aloft behind it. Thursday morning lows will be near or below freezing.
259 AM CDT Wed Apr 13 2022 Failed to mention in the primary discussion, the potential for a freezing temperatures across northern Missouri and northeastern Kansas Tonight. Anticipate Lows to dip below freezing early Thursday morning, remaining so for several hours in some locations.
1151 PM CDT Tue Apr 12 2022 Key Points: * Severe weather expected tonight as strong cold front barrels through the area. * Sub-freezing temperatures expected Wednesday night- Thursday morning. This low is expected to move east into the evening and overnight hours, with trailing cold front moving through the forecast area overnight. Expect storms to develop near low center towards 20Z, then build southward along the cold front across eastern Nebraska. Temperatures look to be much cooler across the area, generally in the 40s-lower 50s. With 925 hpa temperatures near or below zero along and north of Highway 36, will need to keep an eye on the potential for sub-freezing temperatures across northern Missouri, and the potential for frost farther south.
103 AM EDT Wed Apr 13 2022 Cloud cover has increased throughout the day today as a low pressure over the Central Plains has progged NE towards the Upper Mississippi Valley. As the warm front of the low begins to move into Upper MI this afternoon, expect rain (with possibly a few thunderstorms embedded at spots) to move through the region, as instability develops aloft in the middle and upper atmosphere with the passage of the warm front. As the cold front overtakes the area Wednesday evening, thunderstorm chances will wane from west to east with just low chances over the eastern counties late Wednesday night.
The large closed low complex will gyrate acrs the upper MS RVR Valley and NW GRT LKS, driving a strong wind machine on it's southern flank gradient for Thu.
Most of the area will see dry conditions today as the low swings northward over eastern North Dakota and northern Minnesota. Will also not make any changes to the High Wind Warning, though there may be a bit of a slackening in the gradient beginning Thursday afternoon. Departing system has moved far enough east that the only lingering effect will be daytime mixed winds topping out around 30kts in the east and with the low level cold airmass, some shallow cumulus/stratocumulus which doesn't appear deep enough (at just a few hundred feet) for any precipitation to get generated.
308 AM EDT Wed Apr 13 2022 Warm conditions will prevail ahead of a cold front, which may bring isolated severe thunderstorms late Thursday.
352 AM EDT Wed Apr 13 2022 Ridging at the surface and aloft has promoted dry and relatively stable weather conditions last night and this morning, with fresh to moderate breezes prevailing over the local waters. Numerical guidance slowly shifts the ridge eastward and away from Florida over the next several days as a longwave trough and associated cold front marches into the central and eastern U. Thursday, the longwave trough will swing a frontal boundary into northern Florida and push the ridge into the central Atlantic waters resulting in deep layer moisture lifting across the Keys and southern and central Florida.
Cold front will move into northeast Oklahoma after Midnight with strong to potentially severe storms developing along/north of boundary late tonight. There may be a small window by late morning for an enhanced tornado threat as surface based instability increases but obviously the higher threat will likely be east of CWA.
still in the 70s but much cooler over much of the region now in the lower to mid 60s. Did have to raise low temperatures southern two thirds of the forecast area with current guidance a few degrees warmer. Chattanooga Airport, TN 81 58 72 47 77 / 20 90 30 10 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 81 56 70 44 76 / 20 80 40 10 10 Oak Ridge, TN 80 54 70 44 76 / 30 90 30 10 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 79 56 67 41 73 / 20 30 60 10 10.