Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
331 AM MDT Mon Jul 29 2019 High pressure over the region will bring dry weather conditions and seasonably warm temperatures for today. Northeast Montana will then see increasing southeast winds ahead of an approaching warm front by tonight, and a Lake Wind Advisory has been hoisted for the Fort Peck Lake Area in anticipation of breezy conditions. For the midweek, upper ridging will prevail. Precipitation chances will depend on isolated to widely scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms through this period, associated with weak upper level features embedded within the larger scale flow tracing through the ridge. Maliawco VFR conditions will prevail today across area terminals with high pressure over the region. Southeast winds will increase ahead of a warm front approaching, especially tonight.
Pleasant conditions to start the work week as temperatures will be considerably cooler than this past weekend. A weak long wave trough at 500 mb will continue to move southward down the California coast as the center of high pressure shifts over the Southern Plains. The shifting of the ridge will return temperatures to more seasonable conditions. The trough/ridge pattern looks to remain in place for the remainder of the week.
526 AM MDT Mon Jul 29 2019 Overnight WV/IR imagery showed the center of the upper level ridge over the Four Corners. The upper level ridge will gradually build over the Rocky Mountains through Tuesday. The airmass east of the dry line is forecast to become quite unstable with NAM MUCAPE from 2500-3500 j/kg over the high plains. Tuesday will be a bit drier and warmer overall with high temperatures in the upper 80s to lower 90s outside the mountains. Present thinking is the higher risk will be from northwest NE through the Black Hills and northeast WY. Medium range models/ensembles are in good agreement holding the upper level ridge over/or just east of the Rocky Mountain Front Range.
A continuous line of low and high level moisture can be seen along and ahead of an advancing cold front. The cold front is relatively weak with limited amount of forcing and lift associated with it, however enough lift will be present to generate new convection. A large area of high pressure located over the east coast will serve as a blocking mechanism to slow the advancement of the frontal system. Temperatures this afternoon will top out in the lower 80s across the north, upper 80s to near 90 central, and lower 90s across southern AR. Overnight lows will be in the mid 60s to the lower 70s.
The main upper level ridge is expected to meander across the southwest through much of the extended periods. with weak ridging locally giving way to multiple passing waves bringing small chances for showers and thunderstorms to the local area. Mostly sunny skies and light winds are expected today as an area of high pressure sinks across the local area.
/issued 338 AM CDT Mon Jul 29 2019/ A nearly stationary and sprawling upper level ridge of high pressure centered in the southern Rockies will be the main weather feature the next seven days.
/Today through Tuesday night/ A weak cold front associated a with a trough, currently located over the Texas/Oklahoma panhandles and through the central Plains, will continue to move southeastward towards the region today.
959 AM EDT Mon Jul 29 2019 High pressure will remain over the region through mid-week.
The main upper level ridge is expected to meander across the southwest through much of the extended periods. with weak ridging locally giving way to multiple passing waves bringing small chances for showers and thunderstorms to the local area.
726 AM EDT Mon Jul 29 2019 A slow-moving cold front will push through Pennsylvania on Tuesday night, then stall out along the Mid Atlantic coastline the second half of the week. Upper ridge building over the state will bring generally dry and very warm conditions today with only isolated, diurnally- driven, pulse type thunderstorms. Ensemble mean 850mb temps of 17C-18C should translate to highs from the low to mid 80s over the highest terrain, to the low 90s in the Susq Valley. A slow-moving cold front will approach the region Tuesday, accompanied by a likelihood of afternoon showers and thunderstorms.
652 AM EDT Mon Jul 29 2019 A cold front will approach today and move through Tuesday into Tuesday night. Once this system moves through, slightly cooler and drier conditions will be in place for the middle of the week. A cold front will begin to work into the region on Tuesday. With cloud cover and precipitation, temperatures will be cooler with high temperatures in the lower 80s.
HiRes guidance is aggressive with rain chances today but the lack of significant forcing coupled with lower PW values and warmer convective temperatures would suggest otherwise. The warmer convective temps means a later start for storms today and coverage should be more spotty. A weak trough north of the region could foster additional shra/tsra tonight.
The wrn flank of the Atlc ridge axis will begin to rebuild into central FL today as a weak/broad inverted trof over south FL/FL Straits works its way into the ern GOMex. Mid lvl anticyclone over S FL/FL Keys will combine with a weak mid lvl trof over the Deep South to generate a SWrly flow thru the H85-H50 steering lyr. Atlc ridge axis will begin to rebuild acrs the FL Peninsula.
519 AM MDT Mon Jul 29 2019 Mean central Rockies ridging can be expected in the period with the upper jet and general fast flow expected over the region. Meanwhile, mean NE PAC trough will direct impulses into the northern periphery of the ridge, supporting unsettled flow over the region.
316 AM PDT Mon Jul 29 2019 High pressure will move east through mid week with slow cooling spreading inland.
High temps will be a little cooler in the north where more clouds are to occur today.
A trough over the west coast will influence our weather through the work week. With the Delta Breeze and troughing also comes the possibility of some stratus penetrating into the Sacramento area.
817 AM CDT Mon Jul 29 2019 High pressure will continue to promote fairly tranquil weather across the Tennessee Valley region again today. Otherwise, expect another seasonably hot and humid day with highs in the upper 80s on the plateau to the lower 90s in the valley.
1056 AM EDT Mon Jul 29 2019 A cold front will approach today and move through Tuesday into Tuesday night. Once this system moves through, slightly cooler and drier conditions will be in place for the middle of the week. For this afternoon, an initial s/wv and a weak prefrontal trof axis at the surface will result in showers and thunderstorms to our west. A cold front will begin to work into the region on Tuesday. With cloud cover and precipitation, temperatures will be cooler with high temperatures in the lower 80s.
914 AM EDT Mon Jul 29 2019 A diffused frontal trough across the central peninsula will wash out as an inverted trough moves west across the peninsula and into the eastern Gulf through tonight. 8 inch range) and instability via 12Z raob data combined with daytime heating will allow scattered to numerous showers and storms to develop along the sea breeze boundaries during the afternoon hours with the highest storm coverage setting up over inland locations along the east/west coast sea breeze merger during the late afternoon and early evening hours.
220 AM PDT Mon Jul 29 2019 A large area of high pressure will maintain widespread triple digit heat across the San Joaquin Valley, West Side Hills and Kern County Deserts through Monday.
The axis of the highest PWAT's has shifted east of the dvn cwa, shear and CAPE are minimal, and the LLJ was pointed into central IL (this is where the storms were located). Otherwise, skies will become sunny as the day progresses as the cold front pushes east of the area, ushering drier and cooler air on northwest winds. Band of showers was moving across the dvn cwa ahead of a cold front. This will then be followed by clearing skies and less humid conditions as subsidence spreads into the area from high pressure to our northwest. Highs will be in the lower to mid 80s. Tonight: Pleasant night ahead as high pressure builds into the cwa providing clear and cooler weather with light northwest winds.
615 AM CDT Mon Jul 29 2019 At 2 AM, skies were rapidly transitioning to clear over the region as the trough that brought rain/storms yesterday continued to move eastward. Isolated areas of haze and fog were occurring along and south of Interstate 80, but this should mix out over the next couple hours as a secondary cold front continues to surge southward. Afternoon highs should be in the low to mid 80s.
555 AM CDT Mon Jul 29 2019 A cold front is in the process of moving across eastern Kansas. Instability in advance of the cold front was currently modest with around 1000 j/kg, with the NAM indicating increasing instability into this afternoon to around 2200 j/kg. High pressure will again move into the area Tuesday with dry weather expected. The region will remain on the eastern edge of an upper level ridge over the southwestern CONUS through the remainder of the week however.
and Tuesday A cold front was moving through north central and central WI early this morning. The cold front will exit eastern WI this morning, which should end the shower threat by mid-morning. Isolated/scattered showers may redevelop over north central WI in the afternoon, as a secondary cold front sags into the area. Temperatures will be cooler than yesterday, ranging from the lower 70s northwest to around 80 east. Lows will be much cooler, ranging from the upper 40s and lower 50s northwest to around 60 in the Fox Valley and lakeshore areas.
408 AM MDT Mon Jul 29 2019 Overnight WV/IR imagery showed the center of the upper level ridge over the Four Corners. The upper level ridge will gradually build over the Rocky Mountains through Tuesday. The airmass east of the dry line is forecast to become quite unstable with NAM MUCAPE from 2500-3500 j/kg over the high plains. Tuesday will be a bit drier and warmer overall with high temperatures in the upper 80s to lower 90s outside the mountains. Present thinking is the higher risk will be from northwest NE through the Black Hills and northeast WY. Medium range models/ensembles are in good agreement holding the upper level ridge over/or just east of the Rocky Mountain Front Range.
The pressure gradient will slowly weaken the frontal boundary along the east coast of central Florida diminishes and high pressure to the north of the area weakens.
An upper level trough will approach the region later tonight and produce additional cloud cover along with the potential for showers and thunderstorms by early tomorrow morning. Temperatures range from the lower 70s inland to the lower 80s on the coast. Today should be another active weather day, with showers and thunderstorms expected, especially in the afternoon, thanks to an upper level low or trough to our east.
404 AM CDT Mon Jul 29 2019 The main story for the short term will be the southeastward progression of a cold frontal zone across the region this morning and into the early afternoon hours. Along with the breezy winds, cooler air behind the front will keep temperatures down into the low to mid 70s for today. Strong radiational cooling within this cool, dry airmass will allow overnight lows to fall into the low 50s and upper 40s. As the high slowly shifts to the east through the day southerly winds will return by the afternoon.
912 AM EDT Mon Jul 29 2019 A slow-moving cold front will push through Pennsylvania on Tuesday night, then stall out along the Mid Atlantic coastline the second half of the week. Upper ridge building over the state will bring generally dry and very warm conditions today with only isolated, diurnally- driven, pulse type thunderstorms. Ensemble mean 850mb temps of 17C-18C should translate to highs from the low to mid 80s over the highest terrain, to the low 90s in the Susq Valley. A slow-moving cold front will approach the region Tuesday, accompanied by a likelihood of afternoon showers and thunderstorms.
Additional scattered convection may break out mainly across southern IL and southeastern MO through the afternoon and possibly into early evening just ahead of a mid level trof axis. Models show high pressure over the Great Lakes region for the end of the work week. Models show upper level ridging over the Rocky Mountains/Great Plains, which puts our region in northwest flow.
Models this cycle continue to position the center of an upper ridge over the desert southwest, in and around the four corners area. Given the proximity of a 850mb thermal ridge, just to the west of West Central Texas, confidence is high regarding the potential for afternoon highs ranging from the upper 90s to around 100, for much of West Central Texas.
A cold front will also push into the Ohio river valley on Tuesday. The added cloud cover and precipitation will likely keep afternoon hours more in the low to mid 80s, but still very muggy. The cold front will be slowing down as it tries to work southward across northern Kentucky Tuesday night, but a few showers will remain possible ahead of the boundary. The mean pattern will feature a trough in the eastern United States and ridging in the west. Despite the mean troughing in the east, temperatures do not look to stray too far from normal through the period.
/issued 421 AM CDT Mon Jul 29 2019/ Large but flat high pressure area dominating the southeastern U. Fringe ridge flow outside the subsidence zone would favor better convective coverage in the western half once gulf breeze convergence becomes established later this morning.
High pressure will continue to promote fairly tranquil weather across the Tennessee Valley region again today. Otherwise, expect another seasonably hot and humid day with highs in the upper 80s on the plateau to the lower 90s in the valley.
Cool and pleasant air remains for Tuesday with mostly sunny sky under the influence of high pressure.
This in response to a weak impulse riding over the top of the 4 corners upper high. Similar setup on Tuesday but the upper high looks to strengthen a bit over the area with convection looking more confined to the mtns near the Colorado border Tuesday afternoon as some warming at mid levels hinder development. Monsoonal moisture should begin returning more in earnest Weds and persist through the weekend as the upper high meanders around the 4 corners area.
/Tonight through Tuesday night/ Showers and thunderstorms to continue along a weak upper-level disturbance ahead of an approaching cold front this evening. Otherwise, high temperatures on Tuesday to range from the lower 80s across north Louisiana where rainfall is expected, to the lower 90s elsewhere. Low temperatures both tonight and Tuesday night to fall into the lowers 70s.
400 PM CDT Mon Jul 29 2019 An upper level ridge located over the desert southwest is bringing northwesterly flow aloft across eastern Oklahoma and northwestern Arkansas. There is also a notable cold front set up northeast to southwest over northeastern Oklahoma slowly moving to the southeast. The aforementioned cold front is currently located from Nowata county southwestern through northern Tulsa county, and through Creek county. This cold front will be the focus for additional shower and thunderstorm activity this afternoon and evening.
320 PM CDT Mon Jul 29 2019 A few showers have built in across portions of Central South Dakota this afternoon, but shouldn't last too long as they track further into an area of high pressure. Meanwhile, a weak disturbance riding southeast over a ridge of high pressure aloft will drop into South Dakota late tonight. By Tuesday afternoon, southeast winds will prevail, and could gust to 20-30 mph as the pressure gradient tightens some as the high pressure center shifts towards Lake Superior.
304 PM CDT Mon Jul 29 2019 Latest water vapor satellite imagery shows upper level trough over Ontario Canada and Upper Great Lakes Region. Temperatures currently are ranging from the lower 70s to the middle 80s across the forecast area.
Very dry weather conditions will continue through Tuesday as an upper level ridge dominates the region. By late Tuesday afternoon into the evening hours, a trough is expected to move across the area, enhancing the shower and thunderstorm activity. Hot and dry weather conditions are expected from mid week through at least late in the weekend, as a solid upper level ridge establish itself across the region.
Temperatures are getting up into the low 90s already so look for convection to become a bit more widespread and form where there is stronger low level convergence.
Cooler, summer, temperatures will exist through tomorrow, with highs in the mid 80s and a bit lower dew points. With the western ridge re-establishing itself into Tuesday, the region will remain under the eastern periphery, with northwest flow aloft.
1125 AM MDT Mon Jul 29 2019 18Z TAF CYCLE Upper high centered over northwest NM.
934 AM MDT Mon Jul 29 2019 High pressure will build across the region today and Tuesday.
ahead of a cold front currently just northwest of Northeast Oklahoma. Highs in the low to mid 90s are forecast for these locations.
212 PM CDT Mon Jul 29 2019 Latest surface map shows the wind shift with the cold front has reached near the I-55 corridor, however the drier air lags behind a bit in Iowa. The upper ridge over the Rockies will amplify as the week progresses, keeping the hot weather well to our west. While the highs gradually recover late this week, humidity levels are not expected to be excessive. The upper ridge will be far enough west that the nocturnal MCS's that develop are expected to remain west of the Mississippi River. However, improvement is expected later this afternoon, as a cold front pushes through the area. Will keep out a mention for now, with the higher potential south of the TAF sites.
A cold front and upper wave will move through central Indiana Tuesday and bring widespread showers and thunderstorms to the area tonight. Then, high pressure will bring dry weather to the area through the rest of the week and weekend. A weak cold front and upper trough will approach from the northwest tonight. Models in agreement that high pressure will build in from the northwest, and along with a dry column, bring dry weather and little cloud cover to the area through the entire short term. Ensembles indicate weak upper troughing will hold across the Ohio Valley through the extended, as upper ridging continues over the Rockies.
232 PM CDT Mon Jul 29 2019 Cold front sinking southeast across forecast area. As of 19z, the cold front had moved through KUIN and KCOU.
249 PM CDT Mon Jul 29 2019 Upper level pattern of ridge over the Rockies and trough to the east is in place. A consistently forecast vorticity maximum is expected to round the upper ridge late tonight into Tuesday, giving us a shot at some precip. This pattern will be stable for the rest of the forecast for the most part, with near to below temperatures and periodic small chances of rain as minor disturbances in mid-levels are allowed over our area as they round the ridge to the west.
1108 AM MDT Mon Jul 29 2019 Mean central Rockies ridging can be expected in the period with the upper jet and general fast flow expected over the region. Meanwhile, mean NE PAC trough will direct impulses into the northern periphery of the ridge, supporting unsettled flow over the region.
Really the main focus of today's forecast is the cold front moving through the Ohio River Valley that is set to move through Middle TN tomorrow.
Showers (and a few thunderstorms) have begun to form along the higher terrain across the area. Could see some isolated fog in the morning over areas that get rain this afternoon, but temperatures should be a few degrees warmer tomorrow morning, compared to yesterday morning so not expecting widespread fog.
Some isolated elevate convection was occurring in northern Nebraska and assessing this potential on southeast around the persistent southern Rockies ridge will be the main issue for the next several days. The ridge axis pushes east to along the Missouri River late tonight and on east into central portions of Iowa and Missouri Tuesday. High-level cloud over the central Rockies should move across the local area during the day and combine with easterly winds to keep high temps somewhat cooler than today.
1236 PM CDT Mon Jul 29 2019 A cold front is in the process of moving across eastern Kansas. Instability in advance of the cold front was currently modest with around 1000 j/kg, with the NAM indicating increasing instability into this afternoon to around 2200 j/kg. High pressure will again move into the area Tuesday with dry weather expected. The region will remain on the eastern edge of an upper level ridge over the southwestern CONUS through the remainder of the week however.
Temperatures will be a little warmer but still below normal with highs in the 70s.
/issued 914 AM EDT Mon Jul 29 2019/ A diffused frontal trough across the central peninsula will wash out as an inverted trough moves west across the peninsula and into the eastern Gulf through tonight. 8 inch range) and instability via 12Z raob data combined with daytime heating will allow scattered to numerous showers and storms to develop along the sea breeze boundaries during the afternoon hours with the highest storm coverage setting up over inland locations along the east/west coast sea breeze merger during the late afternoon and early evening hours.
205 PM CDT Mon Jul 29 2019 Subtropical ridge was developing ewd and is forecast to be INVOF nw- n NM by 00Z/Tue. Across SE NM/PB ne mid-level has developed and a near stationary boundary was draped across the nrn CWFA that was juxtaposed with the mid-level theta-e ridge axis. Subtropical ridge will maintain a similar location Tue/Wed and as the chance of rain diminishes high temps will trend up, U90s-N100 most areas by Wed. By Thur-Fri 7h temps will be 2-3C warmer across SE NM and Upper Trans Pecos than the PB, still with mid-level ridge centered to the n high temps will not get too out of hand, U90s-103 PB/SE NM, of course hotter along the Rio Grande.
Cooler and drier air will flow into the area in the wake of a cold front pushing east of Wisconsin this afternoon. The cold air advection, thermal trough over the area and steep low level lapse rates on Tuesday, will result in mostly cloudy conditions. Highs on Tuesday will be quite cool compared to the past several days with readings in the lower 70s.
240 PM EDT Mon Jul 29 2019 High pressure will remain over the region through mid-week.
1014 AM CDT Mon Jul 29 2019 Sfc analysis this morning shows high pres ridging over the lower MS Valley, with temperatures in the lower to middle 80s. Looking at the UA analysis, the trough over the SE states appears to have shifted east, with ridging from the west building over the area slightly, and this is likely helping provide enough subsidence to limit shower and tstm development. An upper level trough will approach the region later tonight and produce additional cloud cover along with the potential for showers and thunderstorms by early tomorrow morning. Temperatures range from the lower 70s inland to the lower 80s on the coast. Today should be another active weather day, with showers and thunderstorms expected, especially in the afternoon, thanks to an upper level low or trough to our east.
1118 AM MDT Mon Jul 29 2019 Overnight WV/IR imagery showed the center of the upper level ridge over the Four Corners. The upper level ridge will gradually build over the Rocky Mountains through Tuesday. The airmass east of the dry line is forecast to become quite unstable with NAM MUCAPE from 2500-3500 j/kg over the high plains. Tuesday will be a bit drier and warmer overall with high temperatures in the upper 80s to lower 90s outside the mountains. Present thinking is the higher risk will be from northwest NE through the Black Hills and northeast WY. Medium range models/ensembles are in good agreement holding the upper level ridge over/or just east of the Rocky Mountain Front Range.
Nighttime lows remain on the cooler side for this time of year and in the low 70s.
For example, the NAM has dew points in the low 50s at DIA Tuesday afternoon while the HRRR mixes dew points out to the low 30s.