Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
/issued 445 AM CST Wed Dec 25 2019/ Deep layer ridge centered to our east over the north central Gulf Coast states this morning, with high pressure prevailing at the surface. This has also resulted in temperatures warming a bit over the past couple of hours into the lower/mid 50s, with readings elsewhere generally in the mid/upper 40s. Mid/upper ridge is progged to continue sliding off to the east over the next few days, with the region falling under increasingly active SW flow aloft. WRN CONUS trof expected to swing through the Plains SAT into SUN, sending a CDFNT through the region late SAT into SUN morning.
444 AM CST Wed Dec 25 2019 Current surface analysis places low to the lee of the central Rockies, with ridging over Manitoba into northern Ontario. Upper level analysis places ridge over the eastern CONUS with trough over the west coast placing us in southwest flow. Still anticipate a possibility of a snow/freezing drizzle mix as forecast soundings continue to indicate a lack of ice aloft. Chances of precipitation begin to favor KJMS after 10z Wednesday with possible sleet or light freezing drizzle, then a chance of light snow after 00z Thursday.
/issued 407 AM CST Wed Dec 25 2019/ A strong ridge is currently sitting over eastern CONUS - just to the east of the Mid-South. Now that we're on the downstream side of the ridge, we have a southerly flow which will help our temperatures warm even more today than yesterday.
A broad deepening upper level low pressure system along the CA coast is progged to continue deepening as it digs southward.
445 AM CST Wed Dec 25 2019 Deep layer ridge centered to our east over the north central Gulf Coast states this morning, with high pressure prevailing at the surface. This has also resulted in temperatures warming a bit over the past couple of hours into the lower/mid 50s, with readings elsewhere generally in the mid/upper 40s. Mid/upper ridge is progged to continue sliding off to the east over the next few days, with the region falling under increasingly active SW flow aloft. WRN CONUS trof expected to swing through the Plains SAT into SUN, sending a CDFNT through the region late SAT into SUN morning.
The precipitation is expected to be mainly snow, but latest guidance and model soundings continue to hint at some light freezing precipitation mixing in with snow at times over southeast Montana today. Have continued the mention of light freezing rain in the going forecast.
335 AM CST Wed Dec 25 2019 Our warmer than normal weather will continue today thanks to strong ridging over the eastern U. Skies will be mostly clear this morning, but as the upper ridge begins to break down we should see a few more clouds slide in from the west this evening and overnight tonight. Overnight lows tonight are expected to be several degrees warmer thanks to the cloud cover over the west and increased warm air advection.
306 AM CST Wed Dec 25 2019 (Today and Tonight) Fairly quiet weather pattern expected over the next twenty-four hours as an upper-level ridge over the southern Plains starts to shift eastward. That being said, high temperatures may be a couple of degrees higher today than yesterday, due to slightly warmer air moving in from northern Mexico.
Current temperatures are considerably milder compared to 24 hours across most of the area and range from the 20s and 30s in the mountains to the lower to mid 40s across the Central Valley. Snow levels will be quite low with this system down to 2-3K ft, but the low moisture amounts will only result in an inch or two of accumulation over the Sierra.
238 AM MST Wed Dec 25 2019 Broad upper trough continues to push eastward with embedded waves ejecting northward out of the SW US. Light, easterly upslope flow at the surface has resulted in areas of dense fog/freezing fog across the western SD plains. A mid-level band of deformation on the backside of the low coupled with large-scale ascent will provide enough lift for light snow across much of the region.
Otherwise drier and cooler weather will prevail into the weekend as a storm system slides by to our south.
With a 500 mb ridge moving off to the east and a deep trough moving into the western CONUS, Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley will remain under weak surface ridging.
439 AM EST Wed Dec 25 2019 An anomalous upper level ridge will continue to bring a lack of cloud cover and mild temperatures to the region for the next couple days.
Forecast challenge for the short term will be the system moving through the region later today as an upper trough moves through the midwest. This could impact any travel christmas night, especially near the coteau area, which could get around a tenth of freezing precipitation.
414 AM MST Wed Dec 25 2019 Broad upper trough continues to push eastward with embedded waves ejecting northward out of the SW US. Light, easterly upslope flow at the surface has resulted in areas of dense fog/freezing fog across the western SD plains. A mid-level band of deformation on the backside of the low coupled with large-scale ascent will provide enough lift for light snow across much of the region.
624 AM EST Wed Dec 25 2019 An anomalous upper level ridge will build over the eastern conus the second half of this week.
Initially, we will remain in the warm sector with southwest flow aloft holding in advance of a tightly wound low pressure system moving southward along the California coastline tonight and Thursday.
234 PM EST Wed Dec 25 2019 Ridging that has been responsible for the long stretch of sunny and dry weather will begin to break down on Thursday, but not before another nice day tomorrow with mild temperatures.
A nocturnal warming trend will begin tonight with mins expected to be a good 8 to 10 degrees warmer than this mornings lows.
1125 AM EST Wed Dec 25 2019 An anomalous upper level ridge will build over the eastern conus the second half of this week.
Temperatures today will be slightly warmer and near normal readings today for areas not in fog or low clouds. Anglin Areas of dense freezing fog and a few light snow showers will linger through Christmas morning before skies begin to clear from the north and west. /ISSUED 412 AM MST Wed Dec 25 2019/ Weak flow at the surface and aloft combined with abundant low-level moisture continues to result in large swaths of dense freezing fog across north-central and parts of southwest Montana. Meanwhile, over southwest Montana skies are likely to remain on the cloudy side with continued patchy light snow and some areas of freezing fog lingering through tonight.
Cooler temperatures and rain chances returning. As another unseasonably warm day comes to an end, a closed low is moving onto the Pacific coast bringing tidings of rain and cooler weather toward the weekend. Rain chances will start to increase late Thursday night as effects of the upper level low start to be felt.
Gusty southerly winds will subside through the evening hours as the aforementioned low pressure system slides to our north. For Thursday, we will see temperatures climb well above normal once again into the the lower to middle 60s. However, we will see overcast skies to go along with the warmer temperatures on Thursday ahead of dry frontal passage.
1040 AM MST Wed Dec 25 2019 Broad upper trough continues to push eastward with embedded waves ejecting northward out of the SW US. Light, easterly upslope flow at the surface has resulted in areas of dense fog/freezing fog across the western SD plains. A mid-level band of deformation on the backside of the low coupled with large-scale ascent will provide enough lift for light snow across much of the region.
Meanwhile, an extensive cirrus shield noted over the region within the SW flow should persist through much of the day, but looks to gradually diminish this afternoon over SE OK/adjacent SW AR/NE TX ahead of a deep wedge of dry air aloft noted over much of Cntrl OK/TX, and longwave troughing/associated jet streak noted from Nrn MX into the Srn Rockies into far W TX/TX and OK panhandles.
High pressure aloft over the SE US and at the surface extending down the east coast into southern Appalachia will dominate the weather through Thursday.
Relatively little change is expected in the overall weather pattern for the next 24 hours, despite the arrival of a weak cold front across the northern half of Oklahoma tonight/Thursday.
Water vapor imagery this afternoon showing a large upper trough pretty much encompassing the western half of the CONUS while a well amplified ridge was situated over the eastern half. Current temperatures northwest of the boundary were generally in the low 30s while southeast of the boundary in the upper 50s/low 60s.
The lower clouds are keeping temperatures in the mid 60s in the Middle and Upper Keys. In the Lower Keys where the lower clouds have yet to reach, temperatures are in the lower 70s. Winds will slightly veer from north to the northeast this afternoon as high pressure slides southeast. High pressure will then slide eastward, resulting in a freshening and veering easterly flow through the end of the week.
southerly winds were increasing as the CWA was between high pressure located over the Southeast U. and an area of low pressure across Eastern Colorado and Western Kansas.
223 PM EST Wed Dec 25 2019 An anomalous upper level ridge will build over the eastern conus the second half of this week.
Expect a repeat tonight and Thursday morning, as little will change in the lower half of the atmosphere.
The broad upper level trough across the western states will bring a couple of additional weather disturbances across Utah through tonight.
Upper level ridging in addition to high pressure at the surface should keep chances for rain low through the rest of the day today. For Thursday, a slight increase in moisture is expected across the area as high pressure aloft begins to shift east, but should just translate into additional cloud cover.
Areas of accumulating mountain snow and rain at the lowest elevations will continue today as an additional weather disturbance moves across northern Arizona.
Broad upper trough continues to push eastward with embedded waves ejecting northward out of the SW US. Light, easterly upslope flow at the surface has resulted in areas of dense fog/freezing fog across the western SD plains. A mid-level band of deformation on the backside of the low coupled with large-scale ascent will provide enough lift for light snow across much of the region.
144 PM EST Wed Dec 25 2019 Upper level ridge provides dry weather with unseasonably warm afternoons through Thursday.
A weak upper trough was providing just enough support for isolated light snow showers this morning, including the Upper Treasure Valley. Expect mainly VFR this afternoon, but local MVFR conditions could persist in the lower Treasure and Magic Valleys, including KEUL, KJER and KTWF.
Mild conditions expected again for Thursday, although a cold front should nudge into parts of northeast OK late in the day.
A broad upper trough remains over the West Coast, with southeast low level flow across central and southeast Texas. Moisture continues to increase, with dewpoints already in the lower 50s across the Hill Country.
The other option would be to go with a winter weather advisory for the same area as they will also experience some patchy freezing drizzle starting this afternoon as mid level forcing ramps up. Current surface analysis places low to the lee of the central Rockies, with ridging over Manitoba into northern Ontario. Upper level analysis places ridge over the eastern CONUS with trough over the west coast placing us in southwest flow. Still anticipate a possibility of a snow/freezing drizzle mix as forecast soundings continue to indicate a lack of ice aloft.
Low pressure system dropping south along the coast will keep scattered mainly mountain showers going through the evening.
Freezing drizzle has also materialized over the past couple hours as evidenced by web cams and surface observations.
Today we continue with the southwest flow aloft as an upper level ridge is sitting to the east of the Mid-South and a trough out west. The southwest flow aloft will remain through much of the weekend as a slow moving upper-level trough slowly pushes eastward from the west coast.
958 PM EST Wed Dec 25 2019 Ridging that has been responsible for the long stretch of sunny and dry weather will begin to break down on Thursday, but not before another nice day tomorrow with mild temperatures.
A dry cold frontal passage Thursday night will put an end to the record warmth, but above normal temperatures look to continue through the weekend.
410 PM CST Wed Dec 25 2019 It has been a quiet day today as high pressure continues to ridge down from the New England states this afternoon. Temps will be a bit warmer overnight than last night. Thursday will be pretty much the same as today but warmer afternoon temperatures with highs into the lower 70s.
/issued 410 PM CST Wed Dec 25 2019/ It has been a quiet day today as high pressure continues to ridge down from the New England states this afternoon. Temps will be a bit warmer overnight than last night. Thursday will be pretty much the same as today but warmer afternoon temperatures with highs into the lower 70s.
856 PM CST Wed Dec 25 2019 A warm evening is occurring across the Mid-South as an upper ridge of high pressure remains over the area. Today we continue with the southwest flow aloft as an upper level ridge is sitting to the east of the Mid-South and a trough out west. The southwest flow aloft will remain through much of the weekend as a slow moving upper-level trough slowly pushes eastward from the west coast.
227 PM MST Wed Dec 25 2019 Afternoon WV/IR imagery depicted a broad upper trough over the western CONUS. The lower elevations of Carbon County can expect total accumulations of 3 to 5 inches.
Current temperature trends supporting low temperatures a few degrees warmer than previously forecasted.
Weak Pacific high pressure will build into wrn and ncntl Nebraska tonight through Thursday night. Skies should slowly clear late tonight and Thursday from south to north as the high pressure builds into and across wrn and ncntl Nebraska. High temperatures Thursday came in a few degrees cooler than the previous forecast.
750 PM EST Wed Dec 25 2019 The mid level ridge at 500 mbs remains over central FL this evening with 700 mb ridge center across SE GA. Lows will be mild, mainly in the 60s, with some cooler late night temps in the upper 50s northwest of the I-4 corridor.
Looking at visibility ensembles, will include the lowest visibility at TRI and TYS but not as low as last nights. Surface ridging into the southern Appalachians will keep winds light. Chattanooga Airport, TN 43 64 46 62 49 / 0 0 10 10 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 41 63 44 61 45 / 0 0 0 10 10 Oak Ridge, TN 40 63 44 60 44 / 0 0 10 10 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 36 66 41 60 42 / 0 0 0 10 10.
409 PM MST Wed Dec 25 2019 Afternoon WV/IR imagery depicted a broad upper trough over the western CONUS. The lower elevations of Carbon County can expect total accumulations of 3 to 5 inches.
A surface area of low pressure across the southern high plains will lift to the northeast tonight, with no major impacts to South Texas other than keeping winds weak through the period. Chances for rain will slowly increase late Thursday night, mainly across the western Brush Country, as the main mid-level trough nudges to the east.
Otherwise, today panned out as a cool and relatively clear one for Humboldt and Del Norte, and these conditions are expected to spread across the rest region and continue into the weekend as high pressure builds overhead.
Otherwise, look for lows tonight to only fall into the low and middle 50s.
The main impacts of the troughs will be to dip temperatures slightly below normals by a couple of degrees and to scour out the low clouds and fog that have been lingering over the last several days.
Western Montana and north central Idaho will remain under the influence of a trough of low pressure through Thursday, with most of the energy associated with this trough digging well into the southwest US.
Lows will be in the lower 50s area-wide. Otherwise, look for lows tonight to only fall into the low and middle 50s.
Ceilings have been a little difficult this evening, but for the most part with the warming trend in the lower boundary layer have lifted well above IFR and MVFR status seen earlier in the day. The lower boundary layer is somewhat decoupled at present in the low shear laminar flow, which may hold wind speeds down a bit until after sunrise.
Currently a deck at around 050 is in place across the terminals, but closer to morning, the lower deck around 010 in place across the northern half of the peninsula is likely to settle into the northern terminals.
1021 PM EST Wed Dec 25 2019 Ridging that has been responsible for the long stretch of sunny and dry weather will begin to break down on Thursday, but not before another nice day tomorrow with mild temperatures. Many areas will stay close to or above freezing for lows. An increasingly moist low level southeast flow between high pressure over New England and an approaching warm front over the Ohio Valley will result in developing low clouds tomorrow, especially across norther areas. Areas of light rain/drizzle possible in the northern mountains into early Friday as a warm front pushes north.
The upper level ridging will shift east into the Atlantic by Friday morning. Have held off on the lower to mid clouds until later this afternoon/evening.
Initially, we will remain in the warm sector with southwest flow aloft holding in advance of a tightly wound low pressure system moving southward along the California coastline tonight and Thursday. By late Friday, a strong mid level wind maximum will steer northeast around the upper low or by now a more open upper trough but into our area and with enough instability for rain to transition to some amount of convection or thunderstorms. Solutions still unclear where a band of thunder will form late Friday, probably along an advancing Pacific Cold front, though appears likely will be near the western or central South Plains.
239 AM CST Thu Dec 26 2019 Water vapor shows a cold upper low INVOF srn Calif coast with a long fetch of subtropical upper-level moisture streaming newd out MX into W TX. Meanwhile the aforementioned upper low will have moved INVOF SE AZ by 21Z Fri and bit a sfc moisture gradient sets up with M50s dewpoints across much of the PB. Mid/upper level height falls will overspread the area and as the jet/cold front move into the more moist atmosphere TSRA may develop into a line along the cold front, ECMWF is a little farther w with initiation. Thereafter Sun-Tue temps will likely be below normal with some precip possible across the far s-sw depending on upper low.
1238 AM EST Thu Dec 26 2019 Ridging that has been responsible for the long stretch of sunny and dry weather will begin to break down on Thursday, but not before another nice day tomorrow with mild temperatures. Many areas will stay close to or above freezing for lows. An increasingly moist low level southeast flow between high pressure over New England and an approaching warm front over the Ohio Valley will result in developing low clouds tomorrow, especially across norther areas. Areas of light rain/drizzle possible in the northern mountains into early Friday as a warm front pushes north.
/issued 856 PM CST Wed Dec 25 2019/ A warm evening is occurring across the Mid-South as an upper ridge of high pressure remains over the area. Today we continue with the southwest flow aloft as an upper level ridge is sitting to the east of the Mid-South and a trough out west. The southwest flow aloft will remain through much of the weekend as a slow moving upper-level trough slowly pushes eastward from the west coast.
Scattered showers return with a low pressure trough on Friday. Large scale ascent won't be anything remarkable given our relative distance from this trough, but a southwesterly jet streak and broad isentropic lift within warm air advection should be enough to generate drizzle or scattered light showers Thursday night into Friday morning.
Upper level ridging in addition to high pressure at the surface should keep chances for rain low through the rest of the day today. For Thursday, a slight increase in moisture is expected across the area as high pressure aloft begins to shift east, but should just translate into additional cloud cover. Otherwise, the main feature of interest continues to be the next cold front by the coming weekend.
The last in the series of weather disturbances associated with the western states upper level trough will cross Utah tonight. A low pressure system over southern Arizona could bring showers back to extreme southern and eastern Utah Friday, followed a colder and somewhat drier northerly flow aloft this weekend. However there is a 30 percent chance this stratus scatters out allowing CIGS to improve into the low end VFR range overnight.
Cold front currently across central KS will move into NE OK by mid morning and current progs limit post frontal cloudiness but this is also an area of uncertainty. Otherwise, cold front is currently located from nern KS through swrn KS.
Otherwise, cold front is currently located from nern KS through swrn KS.
As the upper ridge axis begins to push off to the east today, southwesterly flow will help bring increased low-level moisture from the Gulf across the area ahead of an approaching cold front. Despite the mostly cloudy skies today, southerly surface winds will help push high temperatures into the low to mid 60s. A weakening cold front will move in on Friday.
Water vapor imagery this afternoon showing a large upper trough pretty much encompassing the western half of the CONUS while a well amplified ridge was situated over the eastern half. Current temperatures northwest of the boundary were generally in the low 30s while southeast of the boundary in the upper 50s/low 60s. On friday highs will top out in the low/mid 40s.
325 AM EST Thu Dec 26 2019 An anomalous upper level ridge will build over the eastern conus late this week.
1248 AM EST Thu Dec 26 2019 An upper level ridge provides dry weather, with another unseasonably warm afternoon today. A weak cold front passes on Friday.
/issued 219 PM CST Wed Dec 25 2019/ As another unseasonably warm day comes to an end, a closed low is moving onto the Pacific coast bringing tidings of rain and cooler weather toward the weekend. Rain chances will start to increase late Thursday night as effects of the upper level low start to be felt. Most models (with the exception of the NAM) try to erode the shallow cold front on Friday fairly quickly, but this tends to be a bias in the models.
As sfc/upper level ridging influences move ewd, increased atm moisture in low/mid levels should commence supporting generally bkn AC transitioning to bkn CU CKV/BNA/MQY by no later than 26/17Z.
Gusty southerly winds will subside through the evening hours as the aforementioned low pressure system slides to our north. For Thursday, we will see temperatures climb well above normal once again into the the lower to middle 60s. However, we will see overcast skies to go along with the warmer temperatures on Thursday ahead of dry frontal passage. Highs on Friday will still be above normal, yet cooler than the first part of the week, with temperatures topping out in the 50s.
A weak cold front is expected to pass through the area late tonight and early Friday. More cloud cover expected today compared to previous few days as a weak cold front approaches. Temps will be a little cooler Friday behind cold front but still well above normal for late December. Upstream obs show quite a bit of low clouds and would not be surprised to see this occur Friday with models being too optimistic with clearing despite high pressure building into the region.
339 AM CST Thu Dec 26 2019 Pleasantly warm weather continues today as highs stay several degrees above normal, but just a little cooler than the last couple of days. The upper ridge will continue to break down over the east coast and allow for a small chance of spotty light showers during the day on Friday as a weak boundary passes through the mid state.