Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Conditions are more favorable for severe storms tomorrow as an upper trough moves into southern California backing upper flow, increasing instability and shear, and causing a dryline to develop providing a low level focus. The trough will quickly move across the southwestern U. Strong winds on the southern periphery of the trough will mix into the higher elevations of the Guadalupe Mountains and a High Wind Watch may be needed to highlight this threat.
Thicknesses will begin to rise as a mid/upper ridge begins to build into the area. With the high moving offshore this afternoon. Max temps will reach the lower 90s well inland while coastal areas will be in the lower to mid 80s before the seabreeze develops. Min temps tonight in the lower 60s inland to upper 60s to near 70 along the coast.
Showers have all but ended for the night, with only eastern half of Miami metropolitan area with realistic chance for showers through about 10 PM as cold front slides off the southern Peninsula thereafter. /issued 415 PM EDT Sun May 14 2017/ SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/ Weak cold front passing through South Florida this afternoon and evening is spawning a few showers and even isolated thunderstorm or two from Broward County into Miami-Dade County. High pressure will then settle overhead for Monday, before a prolonged period of easterly flow takes hold Tuesday as the center of the high moves east and expands across the western Atlantic.
Deep layer ridging will prevail today with mostly clear skies and highs around 90 degrees.
A high amplitude upper level ridge will continue to build into the region. Some mid-level clouds were spilling over the ridge near Chicago, and the Bluegrass region could see a few of these clouds pass over around 12z. Most locations will see highs in the mid 80s today, although a portion of the Bluegrass could stay in the low 80s. A modest SW breeze will kick up at 850 mb, advecting in warmer air aloft.
111 AM EDT Mon May 15 2017 Low pressure will continue to wobble off the New England coast through Monday. High pressure will build across the area with the weather pattern becoming more summer-like heading into midweek.
Surface wise, a subtle trough is aligned on the far eastern Florida Straits with a nebulous pressure pattern covering the rest of our county warning area. A southern stream mid and upper level trough will sharpen over the the Florida peninsula and into the northwestern Caribbean Sea and linger nearby over the next couple of days. Meanwhile, a low level trough over the far eastern straits and the Bahamian chain will be nearly stationary before amplifying some on Tuesday. This low level perturbation accompanied by an easterly wind surge and higher moisture will likely track across our region Tuesday night into Wedneday.
Upper level ridge will continue to slowly shift to the east during the short term as upper trough moves into the southwest US. Moisture increases further by Monday night ahead of upper trough with PW values climbing at or above 1. Convection should develop over the higher terrain of Mexico along the dryline and propagate eastward.
546 AM EDT Mon May 15 2017 High pressure Monday and Tuesday. A cold front will push slowly southward early this morning before washing out over southwestern VA as high pressure builds into the area. High pressure will gradually slide eastward tonight.
Otherwise 850mb temperatures warm about 6F to 11F across the area supporting highs in the low to mid 80s in far eastern Colorado, upper 80s to low 90s elsewhere.
348 AM EDT Mon May 15 2017 Upper level ridge over the Southeast Plains will gradually build across South Florida early this week before continuing to move east into the Atlantic by the latter part of this week. Inverted trough over the Central Bahamas will enhance a few to scattered showers along the southeast coast. Chance of rain begin to increase by the end of the week and early weekend as higher moisture in the southern periphery of the high surges west into South Florida. This is associated to an inverted trough over the Bahamas later in the week. Inverted trough over Bahamas will enhance shower activity over the Atlantic waters through the week and increase to more scattered by the end of the week.
The highest gusts are expected well behind the dryline which will be KDHT.
119 AM EDT Mon May 15 2017 High pressure Monday and Tuesday. A cold front will push slowly southward early this morning before washing out over southwestern VA as high pressure builds into the area. High pressure will gradually slide eastward tonight. High Pressure moving southeastward across the area Monday night will provide good radiative cooling per clear sky and light wind, along with some valley fog.
409 AM EDT Mon May 15 2017 A ridge of high pressure will allow for warm and dry conditions through the middle of the week. With the upper level ridge in place expect above normal temperatures for the short term. Upper ridge over the region combined with southerly low level flow will lead to very warm temperatures at the beginning of the period.
Lee trof should keep westerly drainage winds across the area resulting in a warmer night than last night along the east slopes and plains. Mountain areas will see min temps similar to slightly warmer than last night as well. Warmer temperatures can be expected for Monday as southwest flow aloft mixes down in the afternoon ahead of the closed low taking shape across the desert southwest.
Decent low and mid level theta-e ridge axis develops over our northeast counties. Somewhat cooler due to more cloud cover. A cold, wet, and likely wintry (for elevations above 6000 feet) latter half of the week ahead as a slow moving closed low pressure area meanders across the north-central Rockies.
Light showers will continue this morning across Eastern Treasure Valley and the Western Treasure Valley as a weak trough moves over the region. The showers will by early afternoon as the upper trough shifts eastward into South Central Idaho. Next upper level low expected to bring widespread precipitation late Tuesday morning in Southeast Oregon and Tuesday afternoon in Southwest Idaho. Snow level remain quite high ahead of a strong cold frontal passage late Tuesday, around 6000-7000 feet.
700 AM EDT Mon May 15 2017 High pressure from eastern Canada will build south across the eastern Great Lakes today. A warm front over the Ohio Valley will move north across the area on Tuesday bringing summer type temperatures for mid week.
557 AM CDT Mon May 15 2017 This morning an upper level ridge of high pressure extended from South Texas and the Western Gulf of Mexico, Northeast across the Four State Region, the Upper Mid-West and Great Lakes and into Canada. Upper level ridging will prevail over the forecast area through most of the first half of the week until an upper level closed low pressure system, now over California, shifts into the the Four Corners Region and becomes an open wave as it moves into the upper ridge. This will tend to weaken the ridge returning a Southwest flow pattern with a series of disturbances moving Northeast from the base of the trough as it advances across the Central and Southern Plains.
1248 AM CDT Mon May 15 2017 High pressure has moved off to the east and winds are light southerly. Winds will remain light overnight but models indicating a warm front beginning to develop over the area. Upper level ridging continues to edge eastward toward the Mississippi Valley this afternoon. Most widespread precipitation will be over Iowa into Wisconsin closer to the track of this low, with more of a scattered nature of the precipitation over our area.
644 AM EDT Mon May 15 2017 A ridge of high pressure will allow for warm and dry conditions through the middle of the week. With the upper level ridge in place expect above normal temperatures for the short term. Upper ridge over the region combined with southerly low level flow will lead to very warm temperatures at the beginning of the period.
A strong upper trough will approach Oklahoma from the west late Tuesday.
310 AM EDT Mon May 15 2017 Low pressure will meander over the Gulf of Maine today before shifting well east into the maritimes tonight. A ridge of high pressure follows this system for late tonight into Tuesday.
312 AM MDT Mon May 15 2017 Current surface analysis shows low pressure over southwest MN, with frontal boundary extending west-southwest across the Central Plains to another area of low pressure over south central WY. Upper level analysis continues to show trough along the west coast, with active southwest flow from the Rockies into the Northern and Central Plains. Low pressure along the boundary will drift northeast into the BH area late this afternoon and evening, with drier air moving into northeast WY to the southwest of the low. The best chances for showers and storms and the risk for some strong to severe storms will generally be near and to the north and east of the low from the Black Hills to northwest and central SD during the late afternoon and evening hours.
Winds will also pick up across the region today as high pressure shifts east and lee trough deepens further west.
The mid/upper level ridge will continue to build east over the area, keeping our weather tranquil through the short term period.
upper ridge aloft gets shoved to the east as a west coast system digs farther south through over the Great Basin before bottoming out Tuesday afternoon south of the 4 corners region.
Mostly sunny, dry, and warm conditions prevail across our forecast area this afternoon as high pressure continues to build from the Mississippi Valley to the central Gulf Coast region. There is still some opportunity for a few of the typically warmer spots to reach around 90 this afternoon. Highs Monday will be very warm, ranging from around 90 to the lower 90s inland, and in the mid to upper 80s along the beaches and immediate coast.
107 AM EDT Mon May 15 2017 Weak low pressure and a cold front over Lake Erie will drop to the Ohio Valley today and become nearly stationary. High pressure from eastern Canada will build south across the area later today into Monday. The stalled front will move back north as a warm front on Tuesday bringing above normal temperatures for mid week. Upper level low over Ontario will deepen as it moves off the east coast tonight. Cold advection will occur overnight ahead of the high pressure building in from the north. A dry airmass with high pressure at the surface and northwest flow aloft will remain overhead on Monday. Temperatures will be slightly below normal in the lower 60s in NW PA while tapering up to lower 70s in NW Ohio.
201 AM EDT Mon May 15 2017 An anomalous upper ridge will migrate from the Mississippi Valley to the east coast through late week and produce much warmer and drier days.
Tonight Through Monday Night High pressure will continue to build over Arkansas during the short term. Clear skies are expected under the high pressure. Temperatures will be a bit warmer on Monday. Lows tonight will be in the 50s and 60s and then in the lower to mid 60s Monday night.
608 AM EDT Mon May 15 2017 High pressure Monday and Tuesday. A cold front will push slowly southward early this morning before washing out over southwestern VA as high pressure builds into the area. High pressure will gradually slide eastward tonight.
Dry high pressure over northern ND expected to keep most shower activity to over the south this AM. Model analysis puts cloud bases at around 10-12K feet AGL so I kept precipitation chances on the low end for this morning, more scattered to isolated chances. This will bring cooler and drier air and a decrease in wind speeds. Return flow quickly kicks in tomorrow as a trough develops across the western Dakotas.
547 AM EDT Mon May 15 2017 Dry and warmer weather is expected for the first half of the week under high pressure. Building high pressure should result in mainly clear skies and dry weather today, with highs near the seasonal average. Dry weather should continue Wed/Wed night under ridging and capping warmth aloft. Upper ridging is progged to break down and shift S/E by late in the week as a wrn CONUS trough begins it's track E.
High pressure building into the area will keep the short term forecast warm and dry with light winds through the period. Temps are expected to be a bit warmer than seasonal norms with highs in the Mid to Upper 80s across most of the area and some lower 90s across extreme southern sections of the CWA.
Tuesday looks to be the coolest and wettest day as a deep low pressure system spreads a band of rain and even some mountain snow into the region.
Slow and steady moistening of the low levels will continue this morning on broad southeasterlies, but aloft it appears likely that temps from 700-500mb will undergo gradual warming. While this fact is not so clear on models, 00Z RAOB analyses clearly show 500mb temps at ELP are 3*C warmer than MAF and AMA within SW flow.
249 AM CDT Mon May 15 2017 An upper level ridge is currently over the region early this morning. Temperatures are currently in the low to mid 60s and will drop into the upper 50s to lower 60s for morning lows. Lows tonight will generally be in the lower to middle 60s. An upper level trough currently across the west coast will start to spread east on Tuesday, remaining well west of the area. The trough will help to start to nudge the ridge to the east. Temperatures will still warm into the lower to middle 80s and no rain will occur as the ridge will remain in control.
304 AM EDT Mon May 15 2017 Dry and warmer weather is expected for the first half of the week under high pressure. Building high pressure should result in mainly clear skies and dry weather today, with highs near the seasonal average.
Better storm chances will come tomorrow afternoon/evening as better upper level diffluence moved in ahead of an upper low.
157 AM EDT Mon May 15 2017 High pressure will hold dry weather and above normal temperatures across the area through the work-week. There is northwest flow aloft across the region with strengthening low-level inversions as high pressure builds in from the west. An anomalously deep upper low will move northeast off the New England coast. A weak short wave trough is forecast to move through the area during the day Monday, but air mass appears dry and with weak instability. The upper ridge over the central CONUS will gradually move east across the region through Tuesday.
307 AM PDT Mon May 15 2017 Slow moving low pressure will bring a chance for showers and a few thunderstorms today, mainly over Mono, Mineral and Southern Lyon counties. Another area of low pressure will bring gusty winds Tuesday and Tuesday night with a chance for light rain and snow.
High pressure centered over Western ND nosing into the area after fropa earlier today. The apex of the 500mb ridge across MN-Manitoba will continue to shift east in response to the large trough setting up across the western states. The initial low pressure system over the SD/MN border late this afternoon will sink across far southern SD and northwestern IA by daybreak. This will be while the next low rides up along the trough and ejects out of CO and eastern WY late in the day. A couple of boundaries/troughs will be set up across our region, which will likely be the focus for mainly elevated type showers and thunderstorms Monday afternoon.
Temperatures at 3 AM are in the lower to mid 60s inland and in the lower 70s at the coast with some high clouds streaming across the area from the northwest. Skies will be partly cloudy today as afternoon high temperatures peak in the mid to upper 80s inland and in the lower to mid 80s at the beaches.
A weak cold front associated with this low will move across the CWA during peak heating.
Weak high pressure will move southeast of the area, with return southerly flow developing. Favored warmer numbers seen mainly in the GFS/EC MOS.
Monday looks like the warmer of the two days with warmer temperatures at the top of the mixing layer despite both days mixing to around 850 mb. Highs across northwestern MO may top out in the lower 90s if deeper mixing occurs. For tonight, similar to this morning, an area of precipitation may develop on the nose of the low level jet over central KS, and move northeastward through the morning hours.
Under mostly clear skies, overnight lows in the lower-mid 60s are expected inland with upper 60s along the Gulf Coast. Deep layer ridging will build across our area Monday and Tuesday, and mid-level dry air will remain in place leading to PWAT values under 1" across our area. Hotter temperatures will also occur with increasing thicknesses under the aforementioned ridge, with highs rising into the low-mid 90s under mostly sunny skies each day.
At 3 AM, water vapor satellite imagery showed an upper level trough moving into the west coast of the United States. This feature and an upper level low currently over the Gulf of Alaska will bring storm chances to the region starting Tuesday night and continuing into the weekend. As the upper level trough that is moving into west coast this morning moves east into New Mexico Tuesday afternoon, a dryline will move to just west of the forecast area by late Tuesday afternoon. Although most of North and Central Texas will likely remain capped into the evening hours, as the upper level trough moves northeast across West Texas into Oklahoma and Kansas, the cap should erode and allow thunderstorms to move into areas west of I-35 late Tuesday evening.
131 AM EDT Mon May 15 2017 High pressure over the Great Lakes will provide fair weather and seasonably mild temperatures through Monday. A warm front will move through the area Monday night bringing a low chance of thunderstorms.
1138 PM MDT Sun May 14 2017 The upper analysis shows a broad ridge over the Great Plains, with an upper trough over the western CONUS, resulting in southwesterly flow aloft over the forecast area. Latest sfc analysis depicts high pressure over eastern Montana and the western Dakotas, surrounded by low pressure arcing eastward from Saskatchewan into the eastern Dakotas/Nebraska, then back westward into western Kansas and then into southeastern Colorado. The upper trough will continue to dig southeastward into the four corners region on Monday, with more disturbances in the southwesterly flow aloft affecting the forecast area. This will aid convective development in the convergence zone over the higher terrain during the afternoon.
345 AM EDT Mon May 15 2017 Approaching ridge axis will shield the area from any clouds today yielding full insolation for the balance of the day. Pronounced longwave trough over the southwestern US will trigger lee cyclogenesis over NE Colorado tonight as height falls emerge across the Front Range. Deep layer isentropic ascent ramps up mainly after 06z tonight as resident upper ridge shifts east. Antecedent dry conditions may yield virga at times, but a few hundred j/kg MUCAPE for parcels originating off the low-level warm nose will support some organized shower/possible t-storm activity as the warm front lifts through the CWA mainly 06-15z tonight into Tues morning.
214 AM PDT Mon May 15 2017 A couple of weather systems will maintain an onshore flow bringing breezy conditions and cooler than normal temepratures through mid week. Satellite imagery shows a mid/upper trough over central California this morning and models indicate that the low will remain over the region this afternoon before moving east. There is also the possibility of a few thunderstorms this afternoon and evening as the center of the upper trough and cold air aloft move overhead.
The upper level trough will continue to shift east today. Highs will be a few degrees warmer than yesterday and closer to 70 for the Rogue Valley. The weather is expected to turn wetter and cooler again tonight into Tuesday as an upper level low pressure drops into the Pac NW. A surface warm front could bring light rain to the Oregon coast down to around Gold Beach this afternoon. By tonight the trailing cold front will bring widespread rain to practically all of our forecast area, including Lakeview and Alturas. The cold front is expected to move into Douglas County early Tuesday morning.
451 AM CDT Mon May 15 2017 An upper level RIDGE dominated the central CONUS early this morning. Temps in most areas were in the lower 60s and upper 50s. The axis of the upper level RIDGE will slowly translate east thru tonight, and will result in the beginnings of SW flow aloft by late tonight, with the absence of any disturbances affecting our region continuing. The surface stationary front just to our northeast is anticipated to continue in its current position thru about midday before beginning to advance away as a warm front in response to flow aloft becoming more southwesterly. Elevated convection may spread into northeast and central MO late Tuesday night ahead of a negatively tilted upper level trough moving through the central Plains. Upper level divergence will be increasing over this area ahead of the upper level trough.
Initial mid level clouds will remain just south of I-94 terminals as high pressure holds sway. As a result, full or nearly full insolation will support overachieving high temps ranging from the low 70s in the Saginaw Valley to approaching 80 in portions of the Metro Area.
306 AM EDT Thu Oct 5 2017 The pattern in the short term will be dominated by roughly zonal flow across the central and northern Plains eastward across the Great Lakes and OH Valley, with an elongated ridge axis from the southern Plains to TN Valley and Carolinas. With average high temperatures in the lower to mid 70s, today's highs again will be several degrees above normal. Afternoon highs in the lower and mid 80s will be about 10 degrees warmer than normal.
405 AM CDT Thu Oct 5 2017 Quiet weather today and tonight as high pressure moves in. Therefore, for this forecast the lower end of model guidance was used, but this still may not be quite low enough in some spots. The current forecast keeps most locations at or above freezing tonight, so no freeze headlines were issued for tonight.
257 AM EDT Thu Oct 5 2017 Partly sunny and warmer than average temperatures are expected today with weak high pressure building into the region.
As for the remainder of Thursday, we'll see the cold trough move eastward resulting in clearing skies.
Satellite shows clouds rotating around the upper low in Idaho are moving into eastern Oregon and eastern Washington. Mostly cloudy conditions for the northeast Oregon mountains which are closer to the low center. Cloud cover will impact lows for some locations keeping them a little warmer than last night. The low remains nearly stationary Thursday with partly to mostly sunny skies across the forecast area. An upper level ridge will build over the region Thursday night into Friday with mainly clear skies and warmer temperatures.
A low pressure system currently over Lemhi county will slowly move off to the east throughout the day and tonight.
301 AM MDT Thu Oct 5 2017 Current surface analysis shows weak low pressure over southwest SD, with weak cold front/trough trailing southwest into western CO. Upper level analysis continues to show trough over the western US, with low pressure centered over ID. Isolated showers and possibly a thunderstorm will continue to develop near the low across south central SD through the early morning hours before exiting the area. Periods of unsettled weather will continue through Friday as trough to the west eventually moves east across the region. Could see a mix of rain and snow across the highest elevations of the Black Hills late tonight into early Friday. Highs today will be in the mid 50s to mid 60s, with slightly cooler temps on Friday, especially from northeast WY to south central SD.
However, that's the extent of the atmospheric moisture we'll see, and it probably won't be enough to keep us from, once again, topping out in the lower and middle 80s in areas west of the Cumberland Plateau. Temperatures at 2 am ranged from the lower 50s along the Cumberland Plateau to the upper 50s and lower 60s elsewhere.
On Friday, a Pacific front will approach the region, resulting in warmer air moving into the area for one day, along with windy conditions developing by late in the day.