Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
At KMLU and KELD, VCSH and -RA have been included past 22/03z to account for any wraparound precipitation as the closed low continues on its eastward trek. /Today through Sunday/ Strong vertical ascent associated with a potent upper trough over Southern Oklahoma continues to result in scattered areas of light rain across much of the area. However, rain should finally begin reaching the surface as the low-levels slowly become saturated. Very little change in precipitation coverage is expected for much of today as the upper trough slowly moves east into Southeast Oklahoma. Tonight and early Sunday morning, the upper trough will move south through East Texas and eventually southeast towards Southeast Louisiana/Southwest Mississippi.
Quiet and unseasonably mild conditions will persist as the local area remains in between low pressure tracking east through the Deep South and higher latitude westerlies.
/issued 550 AM CST Sat Dec 21 2019/ For the 21/12z TAFs, scattered showers will be possible across much of the ArkLaTex through 22/00z as a strong upper trough remains centered over Southeast Oklahoma and Northeast Texas. /Today through Sunday/ Strong vertical ascent associated with a potent upper trough over Southern Oklahoma continues to result in scattered areas of light rain across much of the area. However, rain should finally begin reaching the surface as the low-levels slowly become saturated. Very little change in precipitation coverage is expected for much of today as the upper trough slowly moves east into Southeast Oklahoma. Tonight and early Sunday morning, the upper trough will move south through East Texas and eventually southeast towards Southeast Louisiana/Southwest Mississippi.
1059 AM MST Sat Dec 21 2019 An upper level ridge will be over the central and southern Rockies today. The ridge axis will pull into the Plains on Sunday with a strong southwest flow aloft across the forecast area. A mountain wave will occur over the Absaroka Mountains and adjacent Cody Foothills, but this wave doesn't appear to break not allowing the high winds to push into the adjacent foothills. Overall temperatures will be slightly warmer each day this weekend.
High pressure will shift east of the area this weekend, resulting in increasing southwest flow aloft which should help weaken inversions. High pressure is centered over the forecast area this morning, resulting in dry and stable conditions. This will result in another mild day across the higher terrain, with inversions limiting warming for valley locations. The ridge axis will make its way east of the area this afternoon and this evening as a Pacific storm system approaches the California coast. The trough will move onshore over California tomorrow afternoon before lifting north in the Pacific Northwest. Current guidance indicates this may not be quite enough to mix out the lowest part of the valleys, but most areas will see at least considerable improvement.
1145 AM CST Sat Dec 21 2019 Early morning GOES 16 WV Imagery indicates an upper-level closed low spinning over NE Oklahoma. By tonight, this upper-level low will cut- off from the main flow as the ridge off to our west becomes more amplified in response to a long-wave trough/pineapple express coming onshore the west coast. Additionally, there will not be adequate warm- air advection to pump warmer temperatures into the region; and, given the clouds, afternoon temperatures will likely only warm to around 50.
243 PM CST Sat Dec 21 2019 An upper level low moving across Arkansas today will continue to move east through this evening and overnight. An upper level ridge will push across the plains and the Ozarks to start the work week. By the middle of the week the ridge will shift east and upper level southwesterly flow will be in place over the region.
Normal highs for this time of year are in the lower and mid 30s.
These conditions will be associated with what looks to be a continuation of broad upper ridging east of the Rockies. Fog could be dense in spots Sunday morning, especially where Lake Michigan modified air with dewpoints above freezing intersects any remaining snowpack.
Mostly clear skies will be seen across western Kansas though tomorrow as upper level ridging slides eastward from the Rockies into the Plains. A trough of low pressure at the surface will be located across eastern Colorado creating south to southwesterly winds through tomorrow. As for temperatures, lows tonight will drop into the 20s with highs tomorrow in the low to mid 60s.
These showers will continue to build slowly northeastward tonight as a mid level low pressure center moves across the Lower Ms.
1131 AM CST Sat Dec 21 2019 Upper level ridging will start to build into the area on the backside of a cut-off low over southern OK as it progresses to the east.
Surface ridging continues to infiltrate the region with drier north winds.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 52 41 50 44 / 10 30 80 80 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 52 38 52 42 / 0 10 60 70 Oak Ridge, TN 53 37 52 42 / 0 10 60 60 Tri Cities Airport, TN 53 34 53 39 / 0 0 40 50.
1029 AM MST Sat Dec 21 2019 Upper ridge builds over Colorado today and tonight, bringing warmer temperatures to most of the region.
156 PM EST Sat Dec 21 2019 High pressure will keep control of the weather over PA through the entire upcoming work week.
As of this afternoon, temperatures were in the low to mid 50s under cloudy skies. Aloft, a closed low continues to move slowly through the lower Mississippi valley with lower pressure at the surface across the GoM. As the low pressure at the surface deepens this will finally strengthen isentropic ascent and begin to moisten the low levels of the atmosphere. An upper level closed low will be located near the Florida Panhandle Sunday night with surface cyclogenesis across S GA. Drier NE surface flow will limit QPF across our northern counties with a distinct N-S gradient in QPF and PoPs with the highest QPF and PoPs being near the GA border.
In fact, even warmer air aloft will be present (850mb temps of ~2 standard deviations above climo), but the same negating effects for maximum heating at the surface that we saw today will be in play: snow cover, light though westerly winds/a shallow mixed layer, and potential occasional cloud cover. A cool front moves from north to south across the CWA Sunday night, and slightly cooler air as well as some low cloud cover should follow in behind.
249 PM CST Sat Dec 21 2019 (Tonight and Sunday) Generally quiet weather through Sunday with warmer temperatures for most areas tomorrow. The upper level low currently in southeastern OK this afternoon will move south/southeast into southeastern Louisiana by Sunday afternoon. Strengthening lee low pressure will cause winds to become more organized out of the south to southwest tomorrow afternoon. These warmer winds, along with mostly sunny skies will allow for highs to warm well into the 60s for the southwestern half of the CWA.
Bigelbach PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: Upper ridge will keep the forecast area warm and dry today.
Due to high pressure to the east, quiet weather continues for the Quad State region with light winds. Cloud cover ahead of the low will move in from the south overnight with conditions partly cloudy near the I-64 corridor and more cloudy to the south.
626 PM EST Sat Dec 21 2019 High pressure will keep control of the weather over PA through the entire upcoming work week.
/issued 249 PM CST Sat Dec 21 2019/ (Tonight and Sunday) Generally quiet weather through Sunday with warmer temperatures for most areas tomorrow. The upper level low currently in southeastern OK this afternoon will move south/southeast into southeastern Louisiana by Sunday afternoon. Strengthening lee low pressure will cause winds to become more organized out of the south to southwest tomorrow afternoon. These warmer winds, along with mostly sunny skies will allow for highs to warm well into the 60s for the southwestern half of the CWA.
312 PM MST Sat Dec 21 2019 The upper ridge axis will shift across Colorado through Sunday as the flow shifts and increases from the southwest.
Extensive stratus deck persists generally to the west of US 75 this afternoon, while an upper low centered over far southeast OK continues to migrate south, with precip now shifted east of the forecast area. Some concern about temperatures overnight and the possibility of freezing fog in some areas. With strong ridging overhead and continued weak low level flow, fog will be stubborn to burn off despite lack of cloud cover.
648 PM EST Sat Dec 21 2019 Quiet weather continues as high pressure slides east through the weekend.
Models indicate this light rain will continue through the night and the entire day tomorrow as the upper low passes to our south.
22/00Z Through the next 24 hours, upper low over southeast Oklahoma will shift south and southeast. Over the southeast, expect occasional light rain to persist as the upper low passes tonight and Sunday.
934 PM EST Sat Dec 21 2019 High pressure will stay in control through Sunday.
Upper level trough continues to spin across SE OK into NE TX attm with this feature expected to dive southward into Deep East Texas by 12z SUN and across the SE LA Coast by 00z MON. Look for this activity to continue over the short term period, and eventually taper off with the progression of the low pressure to the east.
943 PM EST Sat Dec 21 2019 Convection associated with a developing low pressure over the eastern Gulf of Mexico has increased tonight. This low will strengthen overnight and lift northeast towards the FL panhandle. As it does this, a warm front will be lifted north over the FL peninsula on Sun and Sun night. Seas and winds have come down today as the pressure gradient relaxed but as the low pressure strengthens over the northeast Gulf and lifts to the northeast tonight and Sunday, winds will veer from east to southeast and increase to 20-25 kt on Sunday and 25-30 kt on Sun night.
/issued 347 PM CST Sat Dec 21 2019/ Current satellite imagery shows clouds continuing to spread across the Mid-South with temperatures generally in the lower 50s. Low temperatures tonight will generally be in the lower 40s.
948 PM EST Sat Dec 21 2019 Quiet weather continues as high pressure slides east through the weekend.
Radar trends show that precip over central AL is having a difficult time spreading farther north as it encounters dry air through the low and midlevels. As of this afternoon, temperatures were in the low to mid 50s under cloudy skies. Aloft, a closed low continues to move slowly through the lower Mississippi valley with lower pressure at the surface across the GoM. As the low pressure at the surface deepens this will finally strengthen isentropic ascent and begin to moisten the low levels of the atmosphere. An upper level closed low will be located near the Florida Panhandle Sunday night with surface cyclogenesis across S GA. Drier NE surface flow will limit QPF across our northern counties with a distinct N-S gradient in QPF and PoPs with the highest QPF and PoPs being near the GA border.
517 PM CST Sat Dec 21 2019 An upper level low moving across Arkansas today will continue to move east through this evening and overnight. An upper level ridge will push across the plains and the Ozarks to start the work week. By the middle of the week the ridge will shift east and upper level southwesterly flow will be in place over the region.
/issued 202 PM CST Sat Dec 21 2019/ The weekend is off to quite the pleasant start today, with temperatures on track to top out in the lower to middle 60s this afternoon. The midlevel ridge currently anchored across the Desert Southwest will translate eastward on Sunday, and with the ridge axis overhead and downslope warming at the surface, temperatures will climb at least a few degrees warmer than today, with highs in the 60s to around 70 degrees areawide. The pattern begins to shift early in the week as a large trough digs southward off of the California Coast, resulting in a transition to southwesterly flow aloft over Southeast New Mexico and West Texas.
525 PM CST Sat Dec 21 2019 Temperature is the primary forecast challenge with strong warm air advection underway, a nearly depleted snowpack, a progressive upper ridge, and an approaching cold front. Very dry air remains in the low levels with nearly 30C dew point depressions and H85 and very steep surface inversions. The main story this week is the transition from unseasonably mild weather with upper ridge passage to the return of normal temps (highs near 40F) in the wake of a strong cold front and the digging of the Western US upper trough. Winds will remain light with ridging to west over the southern/central Rockies. Forecast highs reach the lower to mid 60s with 65F at Imperial (record 68), 61F at Valentine (record 65), and 60F at North Platte and Broken Bow (records 67 and 71).
Current weather pattern is dominated by a broad h500 ridge that has set up a mild Chinook pattern bringing southwest flow across the Northern Plains tonight into Sunday. Low pressure will track across the Prairie Provinces of Canada through Sunday, dragging a weak cold front through the region Sunday afternoon. So will settle for highs in the lower 50s southwest today, and the 30s to mid 40s elsewhere. Tonight have accepted the model blend for lows, but again there will be uncertainty, with the valley areas cooler with the higher elevations significantly warmer. Sunday the dry cold front will pass through, with the cold advection lagging behind so another mild day. As the h500 ridge moves east with time, we expect a slow return to move normal temperatures for Christmas week.
Intense southwest flow aloft and a southeast surface pressure gradient have allowed temperatures to soar into the 50s and 60s across much of the low elevations of north central Idaho and western Montana this afternoon. Anticipate the warmth to continue through the overnight tonight, with many locations barely cooling to freezing.
640 PM EST Sat Dec 21 2019 A warm front moves across the region tonight.
An area of low pressure is developing in the north gulf, south of the Mississippi Delta.
Model guidance came in a bit slower today, which likely means we won't see any precip move in until later this evening and into tonight as the cold front enters the region.
High pressure will shift east of the area tonight into tomorrow, resulting in increasing southwest flow aloft which should help weaken inversions. High pressure centered over the forecast area is shifting east this afternoon as a storm system approaches the California coast.
GOES-16 Water Vapor Satellite/Infrared trends place an upper level low just WNW of Texarkana with a warm conveyor belt of moisture advecting up from the Gulf of Mexico. /issued 347 PM CST Sat Dec 21 2019/ Current satellite imagery shows clouds continuing to spread across the Mid-South with temperatures generally in the lower 50s. Low temperatures tonight will generally be in the lower 40s.
347 PM CST Sat Dec 21 2019 Current satellite imagery shows clouds continuing to spread across the Mid-South with temperatures generally in the lower 50s. Low temperatures tonight will generally be in the lower 40s.
Look for this activity to continue over the short term period, and eventually taper off with the progression of the low pressure to the east.
Looking at current water vapor imagery, high pressure is centered just south of Southern California and Southern Arizona with southwest flow aloft over our area. There is stagnant air over our extreme Southeast areas near Bear Lake this morning with overall high pressure in place. Models show high pressure moving east Sunday and weakening slightly. The high pressure starts to break down slightly Sunday night as a weak trough starts moving into the area.
703 PM EST Sat Dec 21 2019 Update/Aviation - Dry and warm conditions through Christmas increasingly likely - Precipitation chances increase after Christmas Will be updating to go with a more optimistic sky fcst on Sunday and will increase the high temps a tad as well. These conditions will be associated with what looks to be a continuation of broad upper ridging east of the Rockies. Fog could be dense in spots Sunday morning, especially where Lake Michigan modified air with dewpoints above freezing intersects any remaining snowpack.
Water vapor imagery indicates the upper low has translated into nern TX, and the latest surface analysis indicates high pressure over ern OK and nwrn AR. Included areas of freezing fog across nern OK and nwrn AR tonight and Sunday morning.
1119 PM EST Sat Dec 21 2019 High pressure will keep control of the weather over PA through the entire upcoming work week.
1056 PM CST Sat Dec 21 2019 CAVU with light winds throughout the forecast period, as high pressure centers over Texas.
Overall quiet conditions for the weather today as an upper level ridge continues to slowly move eastward from the desert southwest to the central plains. Afternoon highs should reach into the lower to mid 60s.
1040 PM EST Sat Dec 21 2019 High pressure will keep control of the weather over PA through the entire upcoming work week.
1228 AM EST Sun Dec 22 2019 Aviation - Dry and warm conditions through Christmas increasingly likely - Precipitation chances increase after Christmas Will be updating to go with a more optimistic sky fcst on Sunday and will increase the high temps a tad as well. These conditions will be associated with what looks to be a continuation of broad upper ridging east of the Rockies. Fog could be dense in spots Sunday morning, especially where Lake Michigan modified air with dewpoints above freezing intersects any remaining snowpack.
228 AM CST Sun Dec 22 2019 The combination of an inverted trough to our east and a closed low to our west continues stream moisture northward from the Gulf this morning. The upper low to our west is fairly impressive in the GOES-16 water vapor this morning.
This area includes western Placer County, eastern Sacramento County, eastern San Joaquin County and eastern Stanislaus County and the lower levels of the adjacent Motherlode. Temperatures will be about the same as yesterday except for the northern Sacramento Valley, where it should be about 5 to 10 degrees warmer. The Lassen Park and western Plumas County higher mountains could see 3 to 6 inches of snow, as well as the higher peaks in northern Shasta County. Dry conditions return to the region for the weekend with morning fog likely to return as an upper level ridge begins to set up residence over the West Coast.
While temperatures will likely fall to near or slightly below freezing, the biggest source of uncertainty will be whether or not temperatures will fall as low as -10 C within the cloud layer, as this will make cloud ice and flurries more likely.
344 AM MST Thu Jan 7 2021 A small ridge aloft is currently over our forecast area with mostly clear skies. The high level clouds will move across our forecast area during the daylight hours today and may be enhanced by a mountain wave. This may keep temperatures a degree or two cooler than previously expected and highs were adjusted accordingly. A weak cold front will push across the plains in the morning, but only slight cold advection will occur and a good amount of sunshine should offset most of this cooling. Highs on most of the plains should be able to reach the lower to mid 40s.
938 AM EST Thu Jan 7 2021 An upper level low pressure system passing south of the region as it moves eastward will bring a chance of flurries along and south of the Ohio River tonight. High pressure keeps the atmosphere stable through the period - highlighted by the surface inversion on the 12z sounding. Only notable mention is that saturation remains in the lower-levels, keeping a low stratus deck in place across most of the counties today. The upper low will bring some moisture and ascent to areas south of the Ohio River as it pushes into the western Tennessee Valley this evening.
Temperatures are expected to remain above freezing for most areas making rain the dominant p-type; however, a little bit of snow mixing in is possible. An upper level high proceeds swiftly across the US/Canadian border meeting up with an upper level low along the east coast. Dry air working in to western Missouri from the east has eaten away at the low clouds for now.
Reimer Pacific energy arrives this morning from the west and will push a cold front through the area today. Further east a combination of the stalled out cold front providing surface convergence and jet interactions aloft generating divergence will produce the best precipitation chances along end east of a Forsyth to Hardin to Sheridan WY line from late afternoon through tonight.
Temperatures are already warming up, currently in the low 70s across the island chain with dew points in the low 60s. Satellite imagery show a large low pressure system moving eastward across the Mississippi River Valley and a trailing cold front extending to the southern Gulf. The shower activity south of the Lower Keys has been diminishing as it moves into the drier air. From synopsis, a large low pressure system located over the Mississippi River Valley is moving eastward and expected to sweep across the southeastern United States on Friday. Meanwhile, an accompanying cold front will move southeast across the Gulf this afternoon and tonight, crossing the Florida Keys Friday morning.
Cloud cover will remain entrenched across the region through Friday but signs point to clearing skies during the weekend as a low pressure system over the Canadian maritimes finally exits eastward. Cannot rule out a few passing flurries or freezing drizzle thru this aftn, especially east side of the CPV and mid slope locations of the Green and Dacks. Otherwise, pic atop Whiteface shows summit is in the sunshine and above the low clouds. As with previous nights, pockets of flurries or very light freezing drizzle will be possible but no accumulations or impacts are expected from this very light precipitation. Based on the low Froude numbers, this seems like a hard feat to do but pockets of sun will be possible Friday afternoon.
250 PM CST Thu Jan 7 2021 Plenty of low stratus remains in place across the region this afternoon on the back side of the mid to upper level low currently located over northern Mississippi.
A small ridge aloft is currently over our forecast area with mostly clear skies. The high level clouds will move across our forecast area during the daylight hours today and may be enhanced by a mountain wave. This may keep temperatures a degree or two cooler than previously expected and highs were adjusted accordingly. A weak cold front will push across the plains in the morning, but only slight cold advection will occur and a good amount of sunshine should offset most of this cooling. Highs on most of the plains should be able to reach the lower to mid 40s.
253 PM EST Thu Jan 7 2021 High pressure located over central Canada will slowly build toward the North Country on Friday into this upcoming weekend. Still cannot completely rule out a few passing light snow flurries or patches of freezing drizzle across the higher terrain tonight into early Friday. Water vapor shows large scale blocking type pattern with ridge over low acrs the central conus, while closed cutoff circulation over eastern Canada continues to retrograde back westward toward northern ME.
1010 AM CST Thu Jan 7 2021 Most of the heavier rain has shifted east of the area this morning, but showers will continue across much of the area, as the upper low moves from the delta into Northeast Mississippi by this evening. /15/ 12Z TAF discussion: A low pressure system moving across the region today will bring persistent low stratus deck to most locations, with ceilings either currently or soon to drop into the MVFR and then IFR or lower range. Winds will be gusty at times, with directions subject to change quickly as the low pressure system passes through the region.
Sprawling high pressure from southeastern Canada through the Upper Midwest and central Plains won't move much into the weekend. It should also be noted even the cooler parts of this forecast period look to remain above normal.