Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
751 PM EDT MON SEP 21 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEK. VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AND GENERAL EAST TO NE WINDS.
NOT MUCH TO UPDATE THIS EVENING AS CLOUD COVER IS JUST OFF TO THE EAST AND RIDGING IS BUILDING IN. ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES A BIT TO MATCH CURRENT TRENDS WHICH ARE A BIT COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
/ISSUED 1122 PM CDT MON SEP 21 2015/ HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE MID SOUTH TONIGHT WHICH WILL KEEP CLEAR SKIES AND COOL TEMPERATURES IN PLACE. MODELS CONTINUE WITH THE GENERAL TREND OF AN UPPER LOW CLOSING OFF OVER THE SE U. WITH RIDGING BUILDING TOWARD THE MID-SOUTH. THE NAM-BASED GUIDANCE IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH RETROGRADING THE UPPER LOW TOWARD OUR AREA BY MID-WEEK. MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS CLOUDS/MOISTURE FROM SE UPPER LOW MOVING INTO OUR CWA IN THE FRI/FRI NIGHT TIME FRAME. WEEKEND TEMPS SHOULD BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER GIVEN LOWER HEIGHTS AND INCREASED CLOUDS/MOISTURE.
WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT SWEEPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL UNITED STATES AND APPROACHING/REACHING THE NORTHWEST CWA BY 12Z TUE. APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND WEAK PVA WILL PROVIDE SOME WEAK LIFT TONIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN CWA. WEAK COLD FRONT PROGGED TO BE AROUND THE NORTHERN CWA BORDER AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. THE BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTH LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A SURFACE CYCLONE DEVELOPS IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. UNCERTAINTY STILL LIES IN THE PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER LOW ONCE IT CROSSES THE ROCKIES.
1157 PM CDT MON SEP 21 2015 FOR 06Z TAFS /ISSUED 1001 PM CDT MON SEP 21 2015/ LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO SHIFT SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD AND AWAY FROM THE REGION THIS EVENING. WHERE MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND SOME PATCHY LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT -- AS THE TROUGH BRIEFLY BECOMES STATIONARY BEFORE BEGINNING TO CUTOFF INTO A LOW ACROSS SE ALABAMA/SW GEORGIA TOMORROW. AND HAVE LOWERED MINIMUM TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER/MID 50S AS A RESULT. BUT SLIGHTLY ELEVATED WINDS SHOULD KEEP VSBY REDUCTIONS IN THE HIGH-MVFR RANGE.
A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL WEAKEN AND VERY SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD.
A MID- LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IS HELPING PUSH ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA.
WITH DECREASING CLOUD COVER OVER SOUTHEAST MS AS AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS SLOWLY MOVING EASTWARD OVER THE REGION. OR NEAR THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE AREA.
1033 PM EDT MON SEP 21 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER FOR THE REST OF THE WORKWEEK. THE HIGH CLOUDS ARE STREAMING NORTHWARD FROM A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION LATE TUESDAY AND PROVIDE DRY TRANQUIL WEATHER WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM. WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT BREAKING DOWN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA ALOFT WILL CONTINUE A CHANCE OF SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
1240 AM EDT TUE SEP 22 2015 TEMPERATURES IN THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA HAVE DROPPED OFF A BIT COOLER THAN FORECAST. SOME MID TO UPPER 40S LOOK LIKELY IN THE SOME OF THE COOLER VALLEYS UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND RELATIVELY CALM WINDS. A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL WEAKEN AND VERY SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD.
WINDS SHOULD NOT GO CALM DUE TO CLOUD COVER NOT ALLOWING SIGNIFICANT DECOUPLING OF THE LOWEST LAYER AFTER MIDNIGHT. /ISSUED 235 EDT MON SEP 21 2015/ UNSEASONABLY DRY DAY TODAY WITH PWAT VALUES NOT MUCH OVER 1 INCH AND SFC DEW POINTS ACROSS NORTH SECTIONS IN THE LOWER 60S. MOISTURE VALUES INCREASE THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS WEAKENING LOW LEVEL TROUGH BACKS CLOSER TO THE STATE FROM THE WRN ATLC.
1152 PM CDT MON SEP 21 2015 Another quiet night is expected across central and southeast Illinois, with high pressure still in control of the local weather. So, expect overnight lows to be a bit warmer tonight than the past two. High pressure for Central Illinois will remain the main story for the entire forecast, and the short term is no exception. Ridge axis stretched from Maine and the eastern Great Lakes back into Missouri/Arkansas. Winds will become light and variable under the ridge, with temps dropping into the upper 40s and lower 50s.
702 PM EDT MON SEP 21 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THROUGH TONIGHT ANOTHER QUIET NIGHT IN STORE AS EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO RESIDE OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH HAS DRIFTED NE OVER THE NEW ENGLAND STATES BUT EXTENDS SW ALL THE WAY INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE WILL BE INCREASING THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE RIDGE CONTINUES ITS PUSH EAST TOWARD THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE STATE BY AROUND 12Z TUESDAY. THINK A FEW OF THE TYPICALLY COOLER/FOGGIER LOCATIONS WILL SEE SOME SHALLOW PATCHY FOG BUT TOO ISOLATED TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST.
SOME MVFR CATEGORY FOG MAY ALSO DEVELOP AS SLIGHTLY COOLER NORTHEAST FLOW CHILLS THE AIRMASS. THE LOWER CLOUDS SHOULD MOVE INTO TRI VICINITY ABOUT 4Z AND POSSIBLY AS FAR SOUTH AS TYS AROUND 9Z.
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER WILL HELP KEEP TONIGHTS LOWS ON THE HIGHER SIDE OF GUIDANCE.
AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER MAINE WILL PROVIDE OUR REGION WITH FAIR EARLY FALL WEATHER. THIS WILL KEEP FAIR WEATHER IN PLACE WHILE SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR ALOFT WILL ALLOW AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO REACH INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING ACROSS THE REGION AT BOTH THE LOW AND MID LEVELS WILL MAINTAIN PLEASANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.
949 PM PDT MON SEP 21 2015 Cooling trend to near normal temperatures through Wednesday as high pressure weakens over the area.
/ISSUED 333 PM CDT MON SEP 21 2015/ UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE HAS BEEN AMPLIFYING ACROSS THE AREA TODAY IN ADVANCE OF A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE LIFTING NORTH-NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHEAST ARIZONA. HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING OVER THE RIDGE WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A MID DECK LATER TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING MAINLY WESTERN ZONES. RMCQUEEN THE LINGERING SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE OUT AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT SLOWLY MOVES FROM THE DESSERT SOUTHWEST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL LINGER IN OUR VICINITY WEDNESDAY.
This may help temperatures stay milder than without the clouds but even without them, the warm advection pattern should keep temperatures over eastern Kansas and western Missouri in the low to mid 60s. With it looking like the cloud cover will either be mixed out and/or shifted to the east, temperatures look to warm back into the low to mid 80s under persistent southerly flow. The rest of the forecast looks dry as we become influenced by a high pressure over the Great Lakes.
Dry conditions are likely across western Kansas through Tuesday afternoon as short range models indicate a weak upper level ridge of high pressure lifting northeast across the Western High Plains during the period. Although a modest amount of instability will be present, precip will remain absent across the region through Tuesday afternoon as the ridge axis moves across western Kansas. Well above seasonal temperatures are expected tonight as a prevailing southerly flow continues to draw warmer air northward into the area. Precip chances return to western Kansas early Wednesday as the remnants of a tropical depression associated with an upper level trough of low pressure lifts slowly northeast across the Desert Southwest into the Western High Plains.
1020 PM EDT MON SEP 21 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.
PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS NOW AT TYLER AND LUFKIN WILL LIKELY OCCUR DEEPER INTO EAST TEXAS OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES ROTATES DOWN FEW MID DECK AND SCATTERED CIRRUS ON THE N/NW FLOW ALOFT. WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE TO KEEP SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS LIGHT AND VRBL FOR THE MOST PART. THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN MOSTLY DRY DUE TO AN UPPER RIDGE STAYING PARKED JUST OFF TO OUR W/SW. ALTHOUGH AN UPPER TROF TO THE EAST WILL START TO RETROGRADE SOMEWHAT AND MAY HELP INITIATE SOME VERY ISOLD CONVECTION NEAR OUR FAR SRN ZONES BY LATE WEEK AS THE UPPER RIDGE SLIDES FARTHER TO THE W/SW.
OTHERWISE THE WEEK WILL BE DOMINATED BY HIGH PRESSURE AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES. AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH LIFTING OVER LAKE ERIE COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC HAS GENERATED AN AREA OF ISENTROPIC LIFT THAT SPAWNED AN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN/SHOWERS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. THEN A MASSIVE RIDGE FROM OLD MEXICO UP INTO THE CENTRAL U. INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT SURFACE AND ALOFT CONTINUES TUE NIGHT.
An upper level trough is dipping into the northern Gulf coast along the TX-LA border, with a ribbon of cloud cover across the southeastern states. A mid-upper level trough will stall out over the area, perhaps even becoming a broad closed low centered approximately over Georgia by Wednesday Night.
1203 AM EDT TUE SEP 22 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN CLEAR AND CALM CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. AS THE MAIN HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED TO THE EAST. THROUGH TONIGHT ANOTHER QUIET NIGHT IN STORE AS EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO RESIDE OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH HAS DRIFTED NE OVER THE NEW ENGLAND STATES BUT EXTENDS SW ALL THE WAY INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE WILL BE INCREASING THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE RIDGE CONTINUES ITS PUSH EAST TOWARD THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE STATE BY AROUND 12Z TUESDAY. THINK A FEW OF THE TYPICALLY COOLER/FOGGIER LOCATIONS WILL SEE SOME SHALLOW PATCHY FOG BUT TOO ISOLATED TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST.
THE HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT SHOULD AT LEAST LEAD TO AREAS OF FOG LATE TUE TNT. HIGH SKIES WILL LIKELY REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT UNDER HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL TO THE EAST OF THE STATE. A WEST UPPER JET MOVES JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE LAKE SUPERIOR AREA WITH THE LARGE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS TEXAS TOWARD THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE HIGHER 700 RH STAYS TO THE NORTH. THE GFS DROPS THE COLD FRONT TO NEAR MADISON TO MILWAUKEE BEFORE STALLING WEDNESDAY MORNING.
917 PM EDT MON SEP 21 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED ACROSS OUR AREA TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER COOLER RIDGE OF DRY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH INTO THE AREA WITH CONTINUED MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES RETURNING FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS AS THE GUIDANCE IS NOT CAPTURING THE DRY MID LEVELS (KMWN) OR THE COOLER SURFACE TEMPERATURES WELL. HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES. MODELS ARE MAINLY DRY WITH A COUPLE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGES THRU THE WEEKEND. THE EXCEPTIONS WILL BE A COUPLE COLD FRONTS THAT TRY AND CROSS THE WATERS.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE INLAND OVER THE NORTHERN BAJA ON TUESDAY. SATELLITE LOOP SHOWED UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING NEAR 30N 120W WITH THUNDERSTORMS IN ITS NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. THE MODELS ALSO AGREE ON WEAKENING THE UPPER LOW MORE QUICKLY THAN PREVIOUS RUNS AND TRACKING ITS REMNANTS FARTHER SOUTH ON TUESDAY. AFTER THE LOW PASSES BY TUESDAY EVENING.
LOCAL RADARS STILL SHOWED A FEW SHOWERS OVER OUR SOUTHEAST ZONES AT 3 PM BUT THE TROUGH AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST BY THIS EVENING AND BRING AN END TO THE RAIN. THE DRIER AIR AND SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH WILL BRING CLEARING SKIES AS WELL. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A RIDGE AXIS TO OUR NORTH ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO BOTTOM OUT SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL TUESDAY MORNING IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT COMBINE WITH THE DRY AIR MASS WILL TRANSLATE INTO A WARM AND DRY TUESDAY. AIDED BY THE CLOSED LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS.
BACK EDGE OF UPPER TROUGH LIES OVER THE EASTERN TN VALLEY WITH CLEARING SKIES JUST TO THE WEST. OVERNIGHT THE CLEARING SHOULD CONTINUE IN THE WEST BUT STAY MOSTLY CLOUDY EAST AND NORTHEAST AS UPPER TROUGHING LINGERS ALONG THE APPALACHIAN CREST AND UPSLOPE FLOW CONTINUES ALONG THE MOUNTAIN CREST AND EAST.
MODELS AND CURRENT RADAR SHOWING SCATTERED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT WEST OF BILLINGS IN THE VICINITY OF COLD FRONTAL CONVERGENCE ZONE. 310-315K ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES THROUGH THE NIGHT OVER WESTERN AND THEN NORTHERN ZONES AS COOLER AIR DEEPENS AND PACIFIC FLOW ALOFT OVER RUNS IT. THESE ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT IS SLOWLY SAGGING SOUTH AND WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL COOL DOWN INTO THE LOWER 70S ACROSS THE FAR EAST WITH MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S ELSEWHERE.
720 PM EDT MON SEP 21 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.
NOT MUCH TO UPDATE THIS EVENING AS CLOUD COVER IS JUST OFF TO THE EAST AND RIDGING IS BUILDING IN. ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES A BIT TO MATCH CURRENT TRENDS WHICH ARE A BIT COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT NE WINDS ARE EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO MIDDLE TN.
1033 PM EDT MON SEP 21 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEK. ALSO SOME OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT NORTHEAST WINDS OFF OF LAKE ERIE COULD RESULT IN SOME FOG DEVELOPING AND SPREADING INTO NORTHERN COUNTIES LATE TONIGHT. VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AND GENERAL EAST TO NE WINDS.
859 PM CDT MON SEP 21 2015 Another quiet night is expected across central and southeast Illinois, with high pressure still in control of the local weather. So, expect overnight lows to be a bit warmer tonight than the past two. High pressure for Central Illinois will remain the main story for the entire forecast, and the short term is no exception. Ridge axis stretched from Maine and the eastern Great Lakes back into Missouri/Arkansas. Winds will become light and variable under the ridge, with temps dropping into the upper 40s and lower 50s.
Temperatures are a tad warmer today than yesterday. An upper level trof continues to shift eastward and will eventually be replaced by upper level ridge that should build into the region from the southwest. Lee-side trofing will cause some scattered convection to develop, however, this activity should stay well west of the region. Initially, it appears ridging will be in place across the eastern US with the main storm track being west of our area. To make the upper level pattern more interesting, globals are still closing off an upper level low across the southern Appalachians/Cumberland Plateau by this weekend. Expecting VFR conditions to prevail through the period with upper level ridge building into the area.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS CONTINUES TO PIVOT EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHWEST AL AND THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO THIS EVENING. WITH DECREASING CLOUD COVER OVER SOUTHEAST MS AS AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS SLOWLY MOVING EASTWARD OVER THE REGION. OR NEAR THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE AREA.
THE LOW IN THE ERN PAC OFF NRN BAJA IS BEGINNING TO SHIFT NEWD AS THE SHORT WAVE CONTAINING THE REMAINS OF TD SIXTEEN-E LIFTS UP THE E SIDE OF THE LOW NWD THRU AZ. THE LOW AND THE LEADING SHORT WAVE FORM A POS TILT SHEAR AXIS BY MIDDAY TOMORROW EXTENDING FROM NEAR 4 CORNERS TO OFF NRN BAJA. RIDGING RETURNS TO THE CWA BY LATE WED AND A LITTLE MOISTURE LINGERS KEEPING A SMALL THREAT OF TERRAIN BASED CONVECTION GOING OVER MAINLY THE SOUTH.
RESULTING IN SLIGHTLY COOLER AND MORE COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS DRIFTING SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF THIS AFTERNOON WITH A SOMEWHAT COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS FILTERING INTO SE TX AND LA. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL WILL EXTEND FROM NORTH MEX ACROSS TX AND LA THROUGH MID WEEK, HOWEVER THIS FEATURE WILL ERODE LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER TROF DIGS INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AND RETROGRADES SLIGHTLY. A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH LIGHT NE TO EAST FLOW REMAINING IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEK.
WEAK RIDGING/SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR CONTINUING TO FILTER INTO THE AREA FROM THE NE TONIGHT/OVERNIGHT.
938 PM EDT MON SEP 21 2015 THE COMBINATION OF LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES IS BRINGING LIGHT RAIN TO THE MID ATLANTIC. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHEAST U. MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY DEPART TO THE EAST LEAVING AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE IN A MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT FAVORING MORE DRIZZLE THAN RAIN IN THOSE AREAS. RIDGES COULD EXPERIENCE LOW CEILING AND VISIBILITY ISSUES. WITH LOW PRESSURE RESIDING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
815 PM EDT MON SEP 21 2015 A COLD FRONT IN THE CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE WILL SLOWLY SINK SOUTHWARD AND THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. MODELS SHOW AN UPPER TROUGH THAT CLOSES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND LINGERS FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. THE LOW LEVEL SURFACE FLOW COMBINED WITH THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PRODUCE SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AND THEN DIMINISHING TUESDAY NIGHT. A WEAK UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES THROUGH THE WORK WEEK AND WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT RETROGRADES WESTWARD OVER THE WEEKEND. AN INVERTED TROUGH OR WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WITH A LONG-FETCH ONSHORE FLOW.
1253 AM EDT TUE SEP 22 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.
NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD DECREASE THIS EVENING AND BECOME NORTHERLY AS HIGH PRESSURE THAT WAS CENTERED OVER THE FRONT RANGE OF ALBERTA PUSHES INTO THE REGION. CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES LOW OVER NORTHEAST MANITOBA INTO NORTHWEST ONTARIO WITH COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHEASTERLY INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE WAKE OF THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH. COOL HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA OVERNIGHT. A NOTABLY COOLER DAY IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL TRY AND REBOUND A BIT AS SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW INCREASES AS A TROUGH DEVELOPS TO THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL WESTERN TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE REGION.
MODELS CONTINUE WITH THE GENERAL TREND OF AN UPPER LOW CLOSING OFF OVER THE SE U. WITH RIDGING BUILDING TOWARD THE MID-SOUTH. THE NAM-BASED GUIDANCE IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH RETROGRADING THE UPPER LOW TOWARD OUR AREA BY MID-WEEK. MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS CLOUDS/MOISTURE FROM SE UPPER LOW MOVING INTO OUR CWA IN THE FRI/FRI NIGHT TIME FRAME. WEEKEND TEMPS SHOULD BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER GIVEN LOWER HEIGHTS AND INCREASED CLOUDS/MOISTURE.
TEMPERATURES AT 9 PM CDT WERE IN THE MID 40S FAR NORTHWEST TO THE LOWER 70S IN THE JAMES VALLEY. NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD DECREASE THIS EVENING AND BECOME NORTHERLY AS HIGH PRESSURE THAT WAS CENTERED OVER THE FRONT RANGE OF ALBERTA PUSHES INTO THE REGION. CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES LOW OVER NORTHEAST MANITOBA INTO NORTHWEST ONTARIO WITH COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHEASTERLY INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE WAKE OF THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH. COOL HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA OVERNIGHT. A NOTABLY COOLER DAY IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL TRY AND REBOUND A BIT AS SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW INCREASES AS A TROUGH DEVELOPS TO THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL WESTERN TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE REGION.
WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE TO KEEP SKIES CLEAR ASIDE FROM HI CI OVER E TX. PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS NOW AT TYLER AND LUFKIN WILL LIKELY OCCUR DEEPER INTO EAST TEXAS OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES ROTATES DOWN FEW MID DECK AND SCATTERED CIRRUS ON THE N/NW FLOW ALOFT.
LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL HINDER THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANY SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH TUESDAY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS MID/UPPER LEVEL DRYING ACROSS NORTH TEXAS AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. SOME OF THIS HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE MAY MAKE IT INTO NORTH TEXAS DURING THE DAY TOMORROW MAINLY AS AN INCREASE IN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS. MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL DOMINATE NORTH TEXAS WEATHER THROUGH MID WEEK WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 90S. THE MAIN INFLUENCE OF THIS HIGH PRESSURE INTRUSION WILL BE TO SEND DRIER AIR INTO NORTH TEXAS. THE DRIER AIR WILL ALLOW OVERNIGHT LOWS TO FALL INTO THE LOW/MID 60S WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
An amplified upper level trough across central Canada will dig southeast into the northern plains and upper Midwest by Monday Afternoon. A weak lead upper level trough will dig southeast across central NE and across northeast KS and northwest MO through the mid and late morning hours of Monday. A southern stream upper level trough will move southeast across southern TX. Expect warmer temperatures with afternoon highs on Monday reaching the upper 30s to lower 40s.
AS A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PASS INTO SOUTH FLORIDA. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO SOUTH FL TONIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA.
THE MERCURY REGISTERED -12 AT LARAMIE WITH 1/2SM VIS IN FREEZING FOG.
WILL BE RATHER ON THE COLD SIDE TONIGHT AS CENTER OF THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM NEARS THE FORECAST AREA PROVIDING LIGHT WINDS. THE HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS MAY INDEED HOLD TEMPERATURES UP SOME. WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH TO MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY NIGHT.
H5 ANALYSIS AT 12Z SHOWED A WELL DEVELOPED OMEGA RIDGE OVER THE LEFT COAST. THIS RIDGE PATTERN WILL GET DEFORMED THROUGH EARLY WEEK AS STORM SYSTEMS ENTER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND ARE SHUNTED NORTHEAST.
Mid clouds are thickeing ahead of a shrtwv trof and clouds will eventaully lower to around 6kft AGL between 09Z-12Z. As trof passes Mon surface winds will turn to the W-NW, but 10kts or less. A fast moving upper level trough will move southeast out of the Rockies tonight and could provide a few flurries from the Davis Mountains into the Permian Basin. However lift associated with the trough will be weak and do not see the instability needed for anything more than a light dusting. Models show several troughs moving across the southwestern U.
627 PM EST SUN JAN 10 2016 COLDER AIR TONIGHT WITH DIMINISHING WIND GUSTS IN WAKE OF COLD FRONT.
BUT WIND CHILLS WILL STILL BE THE LOWEST OF THE SEASON TO OCCUR ON A SCHOOL DAY AND THIS WINTER HAS BEEN MUCH WARMER THAN NORMAL SO FAR. MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY OVERALL BROAD COLD UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE MID SECTION OF THE COUNTRY THROUGH MID WEEK.
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST TONIGHT. THEN SETTLE TO THE SOUTH MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS SWIFTLY EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID- ATLANTIC.
/ISSUED 332 PM CST SUN JAN 10 2016/ SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS AFTERNOON AT 3PM HAS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE S PLAINS WITH GENERALLY MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS OVER THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD MOVE OVER THE ARKLATEX AND EASTWARD TONIGHT. FREEZING TEMPS FOR PART OF THE AREA MON MORNING LOOK POSSIBLE BUT LARGELY DEPEND ON CLOUD COVER. SATELLITE IMAGERY PICKING UP ON SOME HIGH CLOUDS THAT COULD MOVE INTO THE AREA AND KEEP MIN TEMPS MORE IN THE LOW/MID 30S INSTEAD OF UPPER 20S/LOW 30S. BUMPED MIN TEMPS UP A DEGREE OR TWO WITH THE IDEA TEMPS WILL BE NEAR OR AT FREEZING ACROSS THE AREA. BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER CANADA INTO THE GREAT LAKES. A FEW SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WILL BE ROTATING THROUGH THE MAIN FLOW.
515 PM CST SUN JAN 10 2016 LEADING EDGE OF A WARM FRONT IS DRAPED VERY CLOSE TO GREGORY COUNTY AT THIS TIME. WITH MILD TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING NOTED IN NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. IT IS EXPECTED THAT THE WARM FRONT WILL NOT MAKE ANY EASTWARD PROGRESS TONIGHT STAYING GENERALLY BOTTLED UP IN SOUTH CENTRAL SD. THE LEADING EDGE OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO NUDGE INTO OUR FAR NORTHERN ZONES BY VERY LATE AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY IS AVAILABLE IN THE LOWEST REACHES OF THE ATMOSPHERE THROUGH ABOUT 925-900MB.
SKIES WILL BE CLEAR WITH THE LOWS DROPPING INTO THE -10 TO -20 LEVEL.
OUR FORECAST AREA REMAINS ON THE BASE OF A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT ENCOMPASSES MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS AND A DRY SURFACE AIRMASS WILL RESULT IN SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. WE EXPECT LOWS TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 20S ACROSS MUCH OF OUR INTERIOR TO THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S NEAR THE COAST. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO THE LOWER 50S.