Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Ensembles indicate the 500mb ridge will start to amplify but become oriented from northwest to southeast with a stubborn trough axis parked across the Northern Rockies. With the trough axis starting to drift east Tue, the quasi-stationary frontal boundary will advect north with warm/humid conditions lifting across the Upper Peninsula.
Overnight lows will generally be in the low to mid 70s across the area. Deep layer ridging to our east will continue to pump deep layer moisture into the area for the next several days as an upper low over Southeast Texas drifts east and weakens. Overnight lows will be slightly above normal in the lower 70s.
High pressure over Bermuda and the southeastern United States will allow for a warm and moist flow of air over the Ohio Valley this week. With the persistent surface pattern, above normal temperatures are expected to continue with highs today and Tuesday in the lower 90s. MOdels in good agreement that the upper ridge will hold over the east coast with zonal flow over the Great Lakes. Looking at low level thermal progs and with plenty of sunshine, temperatures should max out in the lower 90s.
Given stronger westerly momentum aloft later on today with the approach of a strong trough, the dryline may make a run on the U283 corridor. Surface winds will again stay up in the 15 to 25 mph range through the night with the lee trough positioned from western Nebraska to southeastern Colorado.
Highs today should be close to where they were at yesterday, with most sites toping out in the low to mid 90s. Upper low will continue to lift northeast and will move out into the western high Plains by late Tue afternoon. As this occurs, a cold front is expected to push east and by late Tue afternoon will stretch from eastern Nebraska to west of I-135 and eventually into western OK. Upper pattern will flatten out Wed as the upper low lifts into south central Canada with the surface front moving slightly east, from northwest IA to nw of Wichita and into the TX panhandle.
306 AM EDT Mon Jun 12 2017 High pressure will maintain dry and warm weather today. A broad upper high along the central East Coast should maintain dry and warm weather today. Dry weather should continue tonight under the upper high.
The 00z models remain consistent in depicting the progression of an upper low into the northern High Plains on Tuesday, while a trailing vorticity lobe pivots across the mid MO Valley. In the low levels, a trough or dryline-type boundary will advance across NE, likely serving as the focus for thunderstorm development across our area by late afternoon or early evening.
Latest models focus the low level jet across the eastern Panhandle by midnight, leaving LBB and PVW with less wind shear potential. Warm and drier mid-level southwest flow aloft associated with the upper low will keep temperatures aloft very warm and should keep any widespread showers and thunderstorm development from occurring. The focus of showers and storms gradually shifts east into the Rolling Plains and beyond by late in the week as the trough flattens. Guidance is not letting go of the above normal heat through the week as we await the evolution of the ridge behind the upper level low impacting our weather this week.
Upper ridge slowly breaks down Tuesday onward with thunderstorm chances on the increase through rest of the week. High pressure remains in control with dry conditions across the eastern third of the U.
302 AM EDT Mon Jun 12 2017 High pressure will continue to persist over the area maintaining fair weather through Tuesday, with temperatures slightly above normal.
This most likely due to the centers of the surface and upper ridges being just east of the forecast area. A slight shift in the upper pattern for Tuesday with a ridge over the lower MS to the TN valley and over the western Atlantic with a weak upper trough in between over the far se cwa. yet somewhat messy ridge pattern across the eastern 2/3rds of the country as a closed low emerges out of the northern Rockies into the Northern Plains and carries on a negative tilt.
155 AM EDT Mon Jun 12 2017 Sub-tropical ridge of high pressure will extend into the Southeast through the middle of the week.
314 AM CDT Mon Jun 12 2017 An upper-level ridge continues to build over the southeast CONUS this morning while a deep trough digs over the west. A mid-level, cut-off low is sitting over the northwest Gulf of Mexico at this time and will meander in that general vicinity for the next few days. The combination of this upper low and the southerly winds on the backside of the building ridge will help advect deep moisture into the Mid-South this week. Dewpoints are already in the mid 60s to near 70 degrees and will generally remain in the lower 70s throughout the forecast period. By midweek, the western CONUS trough is progged to lift northeast into the Prairie Provinces before eventually shifting east later in the week.
7 to 2+ inches & K indices hovering low-mid 30s, with the higher amounts of both TPW & K-indices in our west. The storms that develop to the south look to be near the Highway 84 corridor by mid-late morning and more widespread convection and storms areawide by this afternoon. Due to prevalent cloud cover and high dewpoints near 70+ degrees, lows will still hover in the low 70s. Surface ridging to our east (centered over the Appalachians) will slowly build to the west tonight, which could dry us out only slightly, maybe closer to an inch and three quarters. This could help lows to be a touch cooler tonight than this morning.
Temperatures this evening will cool back into the lower 80s.
Today: An east/west warm front extending into eastern SD could become a focal point for convection this afternoon. Tonight: A large upper level trough of low pressure currently bringing snow to the Sierra Mountains, will lift east-northeast today through tonight.
1120 PM MDT Sun Jun 11 2017 PAC NW Upper trough will eject toward the region the next 24 hours, supporting a vigorous storm system into the region Monday evening and overnight. Main upper low will begin to push toward the region tonight, supporting elevated pos theta-e adv over the region esp NE WY where a subtle impulse will advect north through the area tonight. Height falls will be ongoing Monday and low level moisture adv will begin to slowly ramp up Monday as pos theta-e adv continues through Monday (being focused along an elevated trough) ahead of the advancing upper low. Main upper trough will push into the region, supporting strong large scale ascent, with a potent 50-70 knot mid level jet streak. Upper low will linger over the region Tuesday with gusty SW winds expected.
This boundary is giving a wide range of temps to area locales from the low to mid 60s over western zones.
A closed upper level low pressure system tracking northeast will bring with it showers and thunderstorms to northeast Montana as early as this afternoon and evening. Rain will be steadiest tonight as the closed low reaches southern Montana before a dry slot works in from the south on Tuesday. Upper low will be lifting from the Great Basin northeast across Montana over the next few days.
Tonight an upper level low will move from along the central CA coast, northeastward into northern NV, and then on Mon it should move over southern ID. The high level clouds that have been covering much of the area today, are expected to move out of the area early this evening. Mon will be another dry and warmer than average day across southeast and south central CO.
however an upper ridge and north-to-easterly turning winds will help keep any precip to the west of the FA as the ridge axis shifts over the valley by 18Z.
224 AM MDT Mon Jun 12 2017 A strong low pressure system continues to move into the region. This area of precipitation will continue east and overspread most of the area by Tuesday morning as the low tracks through east Idaho.
314 AM EDT Mon Jun 12 2017 Sub-tropical ridge of high pressure will extend into the Southeast through the middle of the week.
WV imagery shows West Texas and Southeast New Mexico still sitting under an elongated ridge extending NE into the region. A look at vis sat imagery shows very little cu development this afternoon, and convective initiation looks unlikely this afternoon with the ridge as strong as it is. However, the ridge is forecast to weaken over the next few days, w/models sharpening up a dryline each afternoon similar to today's. Beyond Wed, once the west coast trough ejects NE into Canada, the ridge builds north into the SW CONUS, decreasing chances into the extended. Thicknesses dip slightly Tuesday as the west coast trough passes north, but otherwise temps should top out in the triple digits many locations thru at least the end of the work week.
There is some concern for locally heavy rainfall given the high atmospheric moisture and the low level boundary not expected to budge much.
The deep western trough has induced strong downstream ridging from the southern Plains to the mid Atlantic coast. Ridge axis will remain well north of the forecast area which will continue large fetch east to southeast boundary layer flow across the Florida peninsula.
659 AM EDT Mon Jun 12 2017 Bermuda high pressure will remain anchored off the coast through the middle of this week.
The 850 front begins to lift back north again tonight into Tuesday as the broad upper low system works into the Northern Plains and the flow aloft becomes more southwest again. Will taper off the convection tuesday afternoon as the 850 warm front is progged to lift north of the state. These storms will likely be more elevated across the north as the surface front remains south of the area through Tuesday and leaves much of the area in a easterly flow with cooler but near normal temperatures.
226 AM MDT Mon Jun 12 2017 A closed 550mb low pressure center was located over northern California early this afternoon with broad southwest flow ahead of it covering much of the country. At the surface a cold front extended from northeast Nebraska through Oberlin and Tribune Kansas into southeast Colorado. On Monday the upper low is forecast to be over much of Nevada and during the day is expected to pivot its way into southern Idaho.
229 AM EDT Mon Jun 12 2017 Bermuda high pressure will remain anchored off the coast through the middle of this week.
646 AM EDT Mon Jun 12 2017 High pressure will remain in control of our weather bringing warm and dry conditions through this evening. On Tuesday, a cold front will drop into the area from Canada bringing showers and thunderstorms.
Locally breezy and cool conditions will persist today as an upper level trough begins to shift inland away from the coast.
Slow moving upper low will track through northeast NV into eastern ID today. Precipitation will continue to focus to the north and west of the low center, placing far southeast Oregon and southwest Idaho under the corridor of heaviest precipitation. Snow levels will range between 7k-9k feet, so any accumulation will be limited to the higher peaks. Baker county and northern Harney and Malhuer counties will be the first to dry out as the low lifts northeastward today. The back edge of the precipitation works east overnight as the upper low lifts into southwest MT by Tuesday morning.
Southwesterly flow remains at 500mb, as the low over northern CA slides into southern ID by the end of the period, building a ridge across the Dakotas and western MN. Expect nearly a carbon copy for temperatures Monday as today, topping out in the low to mid 80s. MLCAPE values generally stay below 500 j/kg ahead of the warm front for all but our southern tier counties through this short term period. Upper low will cross the Rockies and move northeast toward south central Canada through mid week. This could lead to cooler temperatures toward the end of the period.
Upper ridge slowly breaks down Tuesday onward with thunderstorm chances on the increase through rest of the week. This period is characterized by the models replacing the upper ridge over the Ohio valley with the southern edge of a very weak westerly flow aloft.
Upper low is shifting east into the Great Basin. Wrap-around showers continue on the backside of the low across the northern Sierra Nevada where light snow is currently being reported at KBLU and KTRK. Current temperatures are running around 4-8 degrees cooler across most of the region compared to 24 hours ago and generally range from the upper 20s and 30s in the mountains to the 40s to mid 50s elsewhere. Temperatures will be a little milder today as the low moves further east and subsidence begins to increase in its wake across interior NorCal.
306 AM EDT Mon Jun 12 2017 High pressure will remain in control of our weather bringing warm and dry conditions through Monday. On Tuesday, a cold front will drop into the area from Canada bringing showers and thunderstorms. High pressure with ridging surface and aloft will keep the area dry despite strong heating. Tuesday night, the surface cold front should drop into the mid- Atlantic states, with dry air advection gradually ending the threat for convection from north to south.
327 AM CDT Mon Jun 12 2017 Hot weather pattern to continue with upper ridge to the east and SW flow aloft across the region. Things get a little more interesting Tuesday as upper low over the northern Rockies lifts northeastward into the Northern Plains late Tuesday. Tail end of this upper trof will result in: increasing flow aloft.
Embedded S/WV impulse lifting north-northeast through the ridge across the high plains resulting in an area of showers and a few thunderstorms southwest of North Dakota. Mid level ridge moves over the Northern Plains for today resulting in a mainly dry afternoon with possibly some lingering showers from the morning.
SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday): South Texas will remain between the weak cutoff lo along the SE Texas coast and the H5 ridge trying to build into the region from the west. Southeast winds at the surface continue to bring shallow moisture into the lowest layers, but still not enough today for anything more than scattered clouds. Tuesday will be a conflict between deep dry air aloft and the arrival of some dense moisture in the lower levels.
127 AM EDT Mon Jun 12 2017 High pressure will remain in control of our weather bringing warm and dry conditions through tomorrow. On Tuesday, a cold front will drop into the area from Canada bringing showers and thunderstorms. High pressure with ridging surface and aloft will keep the area dry despite strong heating. Tuesday night, the surface cold front should drop into the mid- Atlantic states, with dry air advection gradually ending the threat for convection from north to south.
Meanwhile at upper levels a ridge will continue to build over the western Plains upstream of a strong closed low over northern California. At the surface, dry high pressure moves from Montana into North Dakota tonight, with the high center progged to be in eastern North Dakota by daybreak. This is when we should see a return southeasterly wind flow and increasing low level moisture thanks to an increasing southerly low level jet as the upper low moves into the Rockies near Idaho and the southerly h500 flow becomes southwesterly over North Dakota.
Locally, temperatures were quite mild with readings in the low to mid 70s.
507 AM EDT Mon Jun 12 2017 WV imagery and RAP analysis indicated mid/upper level troughs over CA/NV and from n cntrl Canada into nw Ontario and a ridge over the se CONUS resulting in confluent wrly flow from nrn MN through the nrn Great Lakes. At the surface, high pressure was building into the region from the Saskatchewan and the nrn plains helping to push the frontal boundary into cnrtl WI. Tonight, The models have trended slightly slower with the northward advance of pcpn associated with the warm front lifting to the north from srn WI in response to the deepening plains trough. Eventually conditions will become more IFR for a time at all the sites in low clouds and fog as frontal boundary producing the convection settles south of the area and cooler/moist airmass moves into the region.
Upper low moves across the northern U. S Rockies on Tuesday dragging cooler air aloft across the region. One area of potential concern is for a brief light freeze across portions of the San Luis valley where cooler air aloft combined with clear skies and dry sfc dew points will allow for efficient radiational cooling. Have seen several mos guidance runs in a row suggesting freezing temperatures for the San Luis valley and have bumped low temperatures down to account. Any freezing temperatures should stay confined to the trapping high valleys.
The overall forecast scenario has not changed much over the past few days, with each day ending up a little warmer than the previous one. High pressure over the southeast has maintained the quiet and warm weather pattern for the weekend.
Upper level ridge weakens across the Tennessee Valley and southern Appalachians today. Warm temperatures in the lower to mid 70s are across the central and southern sections of the forecast area early this morning.
545 AM EDT Mon Jun 12 2017 High pressure will maintain dry and warm weather today. A broad upper high along the central East Coast should maintain dry and warm weather today. Dry weather should continue tonight under the upper high.
Eventually conditions will become more IFR for a time at all the sites in low clouds and fog as frontal boundary producing the convection settles south of the area and cooler/moist airmass moves into the region.
Today will likely be the hottest of with high temperatures into the lower to middle 90s, and around 90 Tuesday.
405 AM EDT Mon Jun 12 2017 High pressure will remain in control of our weather bringing warm and dry conditions through this evening. On Tuesday, a cold front will drop into the area from Canada bringing showers and thunderstorms.
This will yield afternoon high temperatures in the lower 90s. Mostly clear and warm conditions will persist through tonight, with overnight lows in the lower to middle 70s. As boundary layer moisture slowly increases and surface dewpoints reach the lower 70s, several models continue to generate widely scattered convection by Tuesday afternoon.
The Gulf flow is opening up across Alabama today with a high pressure ridge well to the east over the Western Atlantic and south to southeast low level flow over us in Central Alabama. In addition, we have weak southerly flow aloft wedged between an upper low over Texas and an upper ridge stretching from the Carolinas to the Caribbean.
Temp trends mainly in the lower/mid 70s, coupled with dew pts in the upper 60s/lower 70s, are making for some humid conditions in place at the present, which are likely to be a precursor of things to come later today. Subtropical ridge is well entrenched across the srn Atlantic leading into the SE states, with sly flow below H7 in place over much of the region. With an upper ridge pattern also building ewd into the wrn/cntrl Gulf region, seasonably warm and humid conditions look to continue well into the daytime period, as afternoon highs climb mainly into the mid/upper 80s for most locations. Overall wx pattern remains fairly stagnant into the middle of the week, with the subtropical ridge remaining in place over the srn Atlantic while upper ridging continues to build across the region.
326 AM EDT Mon Jun 12 2017 High pressure will remain over the area, maintaining fair weather through Tuesday, with temperatures slightly above normal.
636 AM EDT Mon Jun 12 2017 High pressure will remain over the area, maintaining fair weather through Tuesday, with temperatures slightly above normal.
329 AM CDT Mon Jun 12 2017 Main forecast challenge today will be thunderstorm chances given the slight risk over most of the cwa and a good chunk of enhanced to the northwest and moderate over the Pine Ridge of northern Sheridan County. Deep trough to the west over Nevada early this morning with upper jet and diffluence aloft already sparking off thunderstorms from northern Wyoming into Montana and northwest South Dakota. Substantial moisture moving northwest into western Nebraska with td's in the mid to upper 60s with good upglide flow to the north of the low. Timing of stronger wave moving out of the upper low will bring chances for precipitation over western Nebraska beginning this afternoon and best chances over northwest 00z thru 06z.
The upper trough will push quickly across the area Tuesday morning allowing for gusty west winds across the area through the day and cooler temperatures.
236 AM CDT Mon Jun 12 2017 Another warm day is on tap as the area remains on the western edge of the mid level ridge.
High temperatures on Monday will reach into the lower to mid 90s, and into the upper 80s to lower 90s on Tuesday.
104 AM EDT Mon Jun 12 2017 High pressure will continue to extend into the Ohio valley from the mid Atlantic coast through Monday night. Tuesday evening a weak cold front will drop into the area from the northeast.
319 AM CDT Mon Jun 12 2017 A deep layer ridge will remain anchored in the southeastern U. Temperatures today look a tad warmer than yesterday. Increasing low level moisture/dew points in response to southerly flow around the western periphery of the low level anticyclone will result in slightly higher humidity than yesterday, but not quite as high as some of the deterministic solutions prog.
346 AM EDT Mon Jun 12 2017 Southeast Michigan remains under the influence of a broad subtropical ridge this morning. Today should be the warmest day yet with highs in the low 90s areawide and mid 90s in the Detroit metro area. Forecast soundings confirm the expectation for a strong capping inversion beneath the mid-level ridge, ensuring another dry day for most of the area. Eastward progression of the upper low will into Tuesday will allow steeper lapse rates to encroach on Lower Michigan. 3km NAM buffer sounding offers a glimpse into the high density instability profiles that will be available, particularly further west. Pervasive convective chances in the forecast for the remainder of the week as the upper low lifts into southern Canada.
But surface temperatures will be a tad warmer today than yesterday, so this may help on the instability side. Shower and thunderstorm chances may be a little better on Tuesday and Tuesday night as the winds aloft increase and upper heights decrease some with a passing trough to our north.
354 AM CDT Mon Jun 12 2017 An upper level ridge is currently centered northeast of the area over the Carolinas. Clockwise flow around this high pressure is pumping in deep tropical moisture to the region.
318 AM CDT Mon Jun 12 2017 Upper low over the Great Basin and southwest flow east into the central CONUS is dominating the upper levels this morning. This should bring another day of highs in the lower 90s and combine with dewpoints around 70 for apparent temps to reach the mid 90s to around 102. There are some signals of low cloud developing farther northwest tonight and have suggested increasing clouds in the east late in the night but dry conditions with lows again in the low to mid 70s should persist as the upper low enters the Rockies.
Monday will be more of the same, with high temperatures a few degrees higher for many - along with dewpoints also nudging slowly upward will yield heat indices in the lower to mid 90s over much of my SERN forecast area. Lows Mon night will also be a couple degrees warmer than tonight, with mins around 70 in the SE.
321 AM CDT Mon Jun 12 2017 Ridge rules. High pressure will continue to dominate the wx pattern this week even as upper low over the Great Basin this morning moves east.
118 AM EDT Mon Jun 12 2017 High pressure will result in dry and warm weather for the start of the new week. A broad upper high should maintain dry and warm weather tonight, with lows around 10 degrees above the seasonal average. By Tuesday, ridge erosion via a deepening Hudson Bay-to-Canadian Maritimes trough is progged with encroachment of the associated backdoor front toward the I 80 corridor.
540 AM EDT Mon Jun 12 2017 High pressure will maintain dry and warm weather today. A broad upper high along the central East Coast should maintain dry and warm weather today. Dry weather should continue tonight under the upper high.