Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
VFR expected today and tonight as high pressure at the surface and aloft builds into the region. Aloft a 500mb ridge building north from Mexico into West Texas extends well north through the Rockies providing a dry and somewhat cool northwest flow over the State. The mid-level ridge remains in place through tomorrow providing fair and benign conditions for our region.
Between the two features, northwesterly flow continues to funnel colder air into the area with temperatures in the low to mid-30s. The upper level trough will continue to southeast over the eastern seaboard through the day today. Northerly flow and lack of sunshine will hold temperatures in the low to mid-30s.
559 AM CST Mon Feb 1 2021 High pressure will build in from the west today and Tuesday, resulting in dry weather and seasonable temperatures across central and southeast IL. Early morning surface and upper air data indicated stacked low pressure over the upper Ohio Valley, while elongated 1030 mb high pressure stretched the length of the Plains. Northwest winds to remain brisk as gradient persists ahead of the incoming ridge, with 20-25 mph gusts common. 925 mb temps running near -5C should produce seasonable highs in the low/mid 30s. Tonight under mainly clear skies, cooler lows expected in the teens to low 20s. 1025 mb high pressure expands into the Mississippi River Valley on Tuesday and east across the state overnight.
High pressure will bring dry conditions and a strong warming trend to start the week. Another winter weather system will bring cooler temperatures, gusty winds, and a slight chance of valley rain showers and mountain snow showers the second half of the week.
319 AM CST Mon Feb 1 2021 High pressure over the central US will be the dominating weather pattern for us to start this week. As the axis of the high is to our west, winds will continue to be out of the north today. Tonight expect to see low temperatures around freezing in central Louisiana. The high pressure will slowly shift east this week, so a return to southerly winds is anticipated by Tuesday.
A cold front will spread rain from north to south across the forecast area from midday Monday through Tuesday.
306 AM MST Mon Feb 1 2021 Current surface analysis shows high pressure centered to the east-southeast of the area, with a trough to the east of the Rockies from central MT to eastern WY. Upper level analysis shows trough over the eastern US, with ridging centered over the Rockies and a trough off the west coast.
The warmer locations across northeast and east- central Wisconsin were in the lower 20s. The low clouds have disappeared for the moment. However, an upper trough will swing across eastern Wisconsin from the late morning and afternoon. The combination of daytime heating, low level moisture and the lift from the upper trough should allow for the low clouds to reform by mid to late morning.
Winds will shift to the south today as lee troughing develops across eastern Colorado.
318 AM MST Mon Feb 1 2021 The mid-level ridge over the region has become 'dirtied' by high clouds pushing over the area from the southwest. Over the next 36 hours the ridge axis will be driven slowly east of the Continental Divide by a trough approaching the west coast. Ensemble and deterministic models were honing in on the northern stream trough/southern stream cutoff low solution mentioned in previous discussions.
631 AM CST Mon Feb 1 2021 Based on the low temperatures coming in warmer across northeast Iowa and southeast Minnesota early this morning, decided to raise the high temperatures to around 30 degrees for today. Temperatures ranged from the lower 20s to lower 30s. 00z models are in good agreement that an upper level ridge will build east across the area. As a result, the low level moisture will likely remain across the area. With the 925 and 850 mb ridge axis remaining to our west through tonight, kept the low clouds across the area. Due to these clouds, there was some concern that the NBM was too cold, so raised the low temperatures tonight.
542 AM EST Mon Feb 1 2021 [Through 12Z Tuesday] MVFR cigs will prevail behind a strong cold front that moved through the area early this morning. High temperatures for the day are expected to reach into the lower to mid 50s for southeast Georgia and in the mid 50s and lower 60s for northeast Florida. Overnight low temperatures will drop into the lower 30s, however frost developments are not expected due to the high wind speeds.
Performed a minor update for the early to mid morning temperature to reflect the higher values before they are expected to come in line for the highs later today.
645 AM EST Mon Feb 1 2021 A strong upper level trough will cross the region through the evening.
347 AM PST Mon Feb 1 2021 A low pressure system off the West Coast will draw mid and high level subtropical moisture northward across the area today with a few sprinkles or light showers possible today, mainly over the mountains.
01" the most likely scenario, particularly in the higher elevations.
Warmer temperatures are expected Tuesday with highs in the mid 50s to upper 60s.
252 PM EST Mon Feb 1 2021 Slow-moving low pressure will continue to generate snow into Tuesday morning.
All the while, upper level ridging intensifies to our west and becomes the dominant feature. Once return flow commences and upper level ridging takes hold, a warming trend takes place heading into mid week.
1238 PM EST Mon Feb 1 2021 Slow-moving low pressure will continue to generate snow into Tuesday morning.
Strong cold air advection continues as intense low pressure off the NJ coast continues to deepen. Strong winds will combine with temperatures in the low/mid 30s tonight to produce wind chill temperatures in the mid 20s. Blustery conditions will continue on Tuesday with highs only reaching the lower 50s.
Snowfall rates have increased across the eastern parts of the Lower Susquehanna Valley (LSV) with visby below 1SM. Slow moving upper low pivoting over the northern Mid Atlantic states toward New England will keep light snow going over most of CPA for Groundhog Day.
1129 AM CST Mon Feb 1 2021 High pressure will build into East Texas this afternoon and bring VFR conditions to area TAF sites. Another day of mild highs is on tap, with most locations seeing values in the low 60s. With another clear and dry night this evening, lows will once again drop into the mid 30s to low 40s, with the northernmost portions of the area nearing the freezing mark. A longwave ridge will dominate aloft over the central U.
This seems reasonable as south winds advect warmer and relatively moist air northward from KS across remaining snowpack. The combination of south winds and remaining snowpack will likely help the lower stratus deck and fog to linger through much of the morning, then slowly erode to the east during the afternoon. H85 temps approach 12C across far western Nebraska, and should see highs reach into the lower 60s and mid 60s where no snow cover exists.
236 PM CST Mon Feb 1 2021 Snow has decreased in coverage this afternoon, but another lobe of the upper trough looks to dive southward later this afternoon and evening, giving the Plateau a shot at additional snow accumulation. Consensus shows the highest elevations between 1 to 2 inches, and around a half inch to an inch elsewhere in the winter weather advisory area.
Deep upper troughing over the eastern CONUS slowly pushes east through the period, with the trough axis reaching the east coast by Tuesday. This leaves the local area in a deep-layer northwesterly flow as a ridge builds upstream over the central CONUS. This shift also ushers in drier air in the low-levels, which should help to erode this pesky cloud cover that has plagued the area today. Lows tonight dip into the upper 20s inland to low 30s along the coast, but with winds hovering in the 5-10 knot range, expect apparent temps to drop to the low to mid 20s across the entire area. Highs Tuesday only reach the low 50s, though with lighter winds and sunnier skies it will feel much nicer than today.
High pressure will reside across the area through the early portion of the week. Another low pressure system is expected to cross the region during the midweek period. Upstream the next trough of note remains off the PacNW coast, while a reinforcing upstream short wave dropping south from the Britcol region (and along its western periphery) is poised to further deepen it.
Current satellite imagery is showing a low pressure circulation off the coast of British Columbia sending moisture onshore in the Pacific Northwest. This system will migrate south and east overnight tonight, bringing an associated cold front and the chance for some rain and snow to the Northern Rockies by Tuesday afternoon. One implication on the timing of the front will be the potential for freezing road surfaces, as the the cold air will arrive after the chance for liquid precipitation in the afternoon.
Low clouds and breezy conditions are expected to continue into tonight behind a cold front.
116 PM MST Mon Feb 1 2021 High amplitude flow exists across the CONUS, with deep troffing (and a major snowstorm) in the east, and a strong ridge in the west, with next upstream trof evolving over the eastern Pacific. Ridge in our region will drift slowly east and dominate our weather thru tomorrow. Gusts today have been somewhat limited by fairly weak mid level winds, but flow aloft will increase tomorrow as Pacific trof begins to move inland. Gusty winds should continue until a cold front arrives from the west late Tuesday night. Increasing synoptic scale ascent will lead to a chance of snow behind the Pacific cold front in our west late Tuesday night.
916 AM MST Mon Feb 1 2021 Strong ridge aloft will dominate our weather today, with occasional high clouds and mild temperatures. JKL A strong 500mb ridge will dominate the weather pattern over our region today through Tuesday. The upper ridge will induce lee-side pressure falls leading to a decent pressure gradient across the Beartooth foothills through the period. By Tuesday night the mid level winds will have backed to the southwest as the ridge axis shifts east.
On Tuesday, the high will still be close enough to influence area weather with generally clear skies and cool early February temperatures MaxT values should be similar to todays values or maybe a degree or so warmer.
JLN has made it up to the upper 30s, but most locations remain in the low to mid 30s. The upper level low over the OH valley was slow to push eastward. Lows tonight will be in the low to mid 20s. Will have rising upper heights as the upper level ridge begins to build eastward into the plains.
The upper low continues to pass by to the northeast which will foster nwly/nly veering through the entire profile. Otherwise, light snow showers will persist across much of the region, really with little/no accumulation in the lower elevations, especially in the valley south of I40. No sig changes in the higher elevations of the East TN and southwest VA/NC mountains. CDG Chattanooga Airport, TN 29 41 25 47 30 / 20 10 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 28 38 23 41 25 / 40 10 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 28 38 24 43 26 / 30 10 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 26 34 20 38 21 / 60 10 0 0 0 NC.
342 PM EST Mon Feb 1 2021 Snow will increase in intensity across the region late today into Tuesday as low pressure tracks up the east coast.
359 PM EST Mon Feb 1 2021 A strong upper level trough will cross the region through the evening.
The upper low continues to pass by to the northeast which will foster nwly/nly veering through the entire profile. Otherwise, light snow showers will persist across much of the region, really with little/no accumulation in the lower elevations, especially in the valley south of I40. No sig changes in the higher elevations of the East TN and southwest VA/NC mountains. Diegan Chattanooga Airport, TN 37 29 41 25 47 / 30 20 10 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 35 28 38 23 41 / 60 40 10 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 35 28 38 24 43 / 60 30 10 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 34 26 34 20 38 / 80 60 10 0 0 NC.
1150 AM CST Mon Feb 1 2021 Benign weather is expected today & Tuesday, as a ridge of high pressure sets up over the Upper Midwest. Winds will be light under this ridge which means little in the way of mixing, so stratus will likely continue to persist through the day today and potentially into Tuesday. NBM guidance is optimistic in clearing and drops lows Tuesday morning well into single digits and low teens, while persistent cloud cover would likely keep temperatures around 10 degrees warmer.
The upper level pattern features a closed upper level low centered over the southern and central Appalachians. Further to the west, a ridge extends from the Desert Southwest into the northern Rockies. Due to this, have light snow chances continuing into the overnight for the higher elevations of southern Middle Tennessee and northeast Alabama. For these locations, there could be up to half an inch of snow possible with the highest elevations like Sewanee possibly seeing up to an inch of snow.
Expect warmer weather Tuesday with highs in the mid to upper 60s.
Upper level analysis places ridge over the central Rockies into the Northern Plains. The west should warm up quite nicely with ridge overhead, with some locations pushing over 50. The question is further east on whether and how much the low clouds can erode as the moisture will still be in place.
This effectively sandwiches moisture into the lowest 2000ft of the atmosphere preventing it from mixing out during the overnight. There are still some uncertainties as the inversion and cloud cover could slow overnight cooling resulting in warmer temperatures.
This will keep high temperatures a couple degrees cooler than previously forecast. An upper level ridge and continued warm advection will bring further warming, and winds will remain relatively light given weak mid level flow and pressure gradients. The area will remain warm and dry Tuesday under the upper ridge. Mostly clear skies and some downslope warming will allow for very warm afternoon highs in the low to mid 60s on the plains and low 40s in the mountains.
Roxy PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: Upper ridge over the west will bring warm and dry conditions to the region for today and Tuesday.
1125 AM EST Mon Feb 1 2021 A significant change to very windy and cooler weather is occurring right now, following the passage of a strong cold front around 9-10 am across the Florida Keys. Pressure gradients will continue to tighten through this evening between a deepening low off the South Carolina coast and a ridge of continental polar high pressure that is driving down the Plains into North Texas. Strong to near-gale northwest breezes will follow a strong cold front which passed the waters late this morning.
1055 AM MST Mon Feb 1 2021 Current surface analysis shows high pressure centered to the east-southeast of the area, with a trough to the east of the Rockies from central MT to eastern WY. Upper level analysis shows trough over the eastern US, with ridging centered over the Rockies and a trough off the west coast.
Continued weak flow under the ridge will support an array of temps across the area again Tues, with areas toward Central SD struggling once again to mix out the inversion under weak Jan insolation. Thermal ridge will move over the area Tues, with temps expected to be a couple degrees warmer than today, esp in the west. Quiet weather will continue with the only impactful weather being areas of freezing fog toward central SD tonight given moist easterly flow. Massive eastern PAC ridging toward the middle of the week will help support a pattern change per upper flow, with the ridge dislodging arctic air over northern Canada, directing it due south into the region by this weekend, per two cold fronts/systems.
Otherwise, breezy wind speeds are expected this afternoon, as well as the high clouds anticipated to infiltrate the Panhandles through tonight. Upper level ridging brings northwesterly flow aloft with southwest surface winds. A lee side trough today will bring some gusty winds of 10 to 20 mph mainly in the west and northwest Panhandles. All in all, a warming trend is expected with temperatures expected to be even warmer tomorrow than they are today.
with height rises arriving Tuesday afternoon as short wave ridging folds over into Michigan.
Overall, the short term is looking very reasonable for the beginning of February as a ridge of high pressure builds in aloft and dominates the weather pattern.
/NEW/ /Through Tuesday/ Another cool and dry day today as high pressure continues to dominate the central third of the CONUS. The axis of this ridge of high pressure will continue to move east during the next 24 hours. As this occurs, and a weak trough of low pressure develops along the lee of the Rockies, winds should veer gradually, becoming southeasterly late tonight, then out of the south by Tuesday late morning. Lows will be in the 30s once again tonight, but should be a few degrees warmer than they were last night. South winds on Tuesday should allow temperatures to be a little warmer still than they will be today, with highs forecast to reach the 60s for most locations.
945 AM PST Mon Feb 1 2021 A low pressure system off the West Coast will draw mid and high level subtropical moisture northward across the area today with a few sprinkles or light showers possible today, especially over the mountains.
We're more than 30 degrees colder currently than we were yesterday at this time, with temps ranging from the mid 30s north to the lower 40s south. Unfortunately, the low stratus clouds aren't going anywhere anytime soon, and we've updated the forecast to keep much of Central Alabama with overcast to broken skies overnight tonight. Cold air advection will bring temps below freezing areawide. Breezy conditions will continue, as Central Alabama will remain within a decent pressure gradient between the east coast system and surface ridging to our west.
Tranquil conditions will continue tonight into Tuesday as ridging aloft moves slowly out of the Colorado Rockies into the Western High Plains. Although northwesterlies aloft are expected to intensify during the period, much drier air in the lower/mid levels will keep precip chances out of the area through late Tuesday. Prevailing southerlies in the lower levels will draw slightly warmer air into southwest and central Kansas tonight. Expect lows down into the 20s(F) in west central and central Kansas to the lower/mid 30s(F) farther south closer to the Oklahoma border. An ongoing warming trend will push highs well into the 50s(F) across central and portions of southwest Kansas Tuesday afternoon with the lower/mid 60s(F) likely in extreme southwest Kansas.
Snowfall rates have increased across the eastern parts of the Lower Susquehanna Valley (LSV) with vsby below 1SM. Slow moving upper low pivoting over the northern Mid Atlantic states toward New England will keep light snow going over most of CPA for Groundhog Day.
1027 AM MST Mon Feb 1 2021 The mid-level ridge over the region has become 'dirtied' by high clouds pushing over the area from the southwest. Over the next 36 hours the ridge axis will be driven slowly east of the Continental Divide by a trough approaching the west coast. Ensemble and deterministic models were honing in on the northern stream trough/southern stream cutoff low solution mentioned in previous discussions.
Therefore the clouds will likely stick around for most of the day, until the upper level trough moves further to the east of the area.
312 PM EST Mon Feb 1 2021 A strong upper level trough will cross the region through the evening.
/Issued 1128 AM CST Mon Feb 1 2021/ /Through Tuesday/ Another cool and dry day today as high pressure continues to dominate the central third of the CONUS. The axis of this ridge of high pressure will continue to move east during the next 24 hours. As this occurs, and a weak trough of low pressure develops along the lee of the Rockies, winds should veer gradually, becoming southeasterly late tonight, then out of the south by Tuesday late morning. Lows will be in the 30s once again tonight, but should be a few degrees warmer than they were last night. South winds on Tuesday should allow temperatures to be a little warmer still than they will be today, with highs forecast to reach the 60s for most locations.
101 PM CST Mon Feb 1 2021 Persistent cloud cover and CAA along northwest flow has kept temperatures in the low to mid 30s across the region.
254 PM CST Mon Feb 1 2021 An upper level high pressure ridge will remain just west of the area tonight and Tuesday, but not quite sharp enough to block a few passing high and mid level clouds.
Given the stratus/fog, have increased lows a couple of degrees for tonight in the mid teens to lower 20s, with warmer points in the west thanks to WAA. For example, obs and satellite this afternoon show Winner, SD reaching the lower 40s with little snow cover and no stratus. Do still expect those along/west of the James River to remain warmer than points further east with the WAA through Tuesday. Calm and variable winds will turn more southeasterly through tonight, and increase slightly as high pressure slides off to the east through Tuesday. Lows are likely to remain on the warmer side in the 20s.
404 PM MST Mon Feb 1 2021 A strong upper level ridge is expected to continue moving across the High Plains today and tomorrow bringing dry conditions and above normal temperatures for the period. The trough is expected to deepen throughout the period, extending from Montana to the Texas Panhandle. Forecasted highs are expected to range from the mid 40s to mid 50s, with cooler temperatures expected in the northeast corner of the CWA. Patchy fog could progress as far west as a line from Haigler to Brewster to Gove; however, my confidence is not as high due to the lower amounts of snow cover. Highs on Tuesday are forecasted to range from the 40s east of Hwy-83 to the lower 60s in portions of east-central Colorado.
237 PM MST Mon Feb 1 2021 The axis of an upper level ridge will continue to be over Colorado tonight and tomorrow as dry weather is expected. These clouds kept temperatures a couple degrees cooler than they would have been with sunny conditions today. Highs across the urban corridor and plains will be in the low to mid 60s. The only other change to the forecast was to increase winds across the northern Front Range foothills and Cheyenne Ridge.
VFR will continue tonight into Tuesday as high pressure settles in across the region. South Texas will remain between a large upper trough out to the east and a stable ridge out to the west. Excellent radiational cooling is forecast tonight, with temperatures generally falling into the lower/mid 40s by Tuesday morning, though a few upper 30s are likely across the inland prairies between 281 and 77.
On Tue the upper ridge flattens out over the area.
/issued 254 PM CST Mon Feb 1 2021/ An upper level high pressure ridge will remain just west of the area tonight and Tuesday, but not quite sharp enough to block a few passing high and mid level clouds.
Winds have remained a bit gusty out of the NNW, but pressure gradient will finally begin to relax this evening and into the overnight hours as high pressure nudges closer to the region. Temperatures on Monday max out at similar values to what was seen today, but with high pressure firmly over the region, winds will be light and variable.
454 PM EST Mon Feb 1 2021 Slow-moving low pressure will continue to generate snow into Tuesday morning.
807 PM CST Mon Feb 1 2021 High pressure will result in dry weather and seasonable temperatures the next few days.
710 PM EST Mon Feb 1 2021 A strong upper level trough will cross the region through the evening.
An upper level wave will swing south through the broad upper level low this evening. Tuesday, we will see upslope snow showers and flurries continue along the higher terrain. The clouds stick around much of the day and northwest flow will help keep highs suppressed in the low to mid 30s. Tuesday night, this lobe of vorticity and shallow inversion will trap a thin layer of moisture in the low levels Tuesday night. Overall clouds and northwest flow will keep typical cold locations bottoming out, with lows more uniform in the lower 20s.