Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
120 AM EST TUE DEC 8 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. NEGATIVE FACTORS INCLUDE THE LOWEST CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS STAYING NORTH/NW OF THE CWFA AND THE WARM GROUND TEMPS. WITH SOME EXPANSION OF THE LOW STRATUS TO THE NORTH AND LATEST GUIDANCE HITTING THE FOG EVEN MORESO THAN EARLIER.
SHOULD BE CAREFUL TO NOTICE RUN TO RUN MODEL CONSISTENCY FOR THIS HIGH WIND SUPPORT. THIS LOW DEVELOPS OVER ALBERTA TUESDAY THEN MOVES THROUGH SASK TUESDAY NIGHT AND MANITOBA WEDNESDAY. 850 MB WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT TO 50-60 KTS AND LAPSE RATES SUPPORT AT LEAST SOME MIXING TO THE SURFACE THAT LASTS INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
AS ANOTHER STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE TN/OH VALLEY STATES. UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE LAYERED ACROSS THE TN/OH VALLEY REGIONS.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TODAY. THE WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHWESTERLY PART OF THE FORECAST AREA BEFORE SUNSET TODAY AND BECOME MORE DIFFUSE AS IT MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF TO OUR EAST WITH ADDITIONAL MOISTURE ADVECTION PERSISTING UNTIL THE WEEKEND.
SURFACE/MESONET OBS SHOW NRLY SURGE OF COOLER/DRIER AIR PUSHED THROUGH THE SRN CWA AS U50S TO L60S HAVE REACHED MARTIN CO. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE NORTH OF FL WILL SLIDE EWD OVER THE NEXT H24. WEAK RIPPLE IN THE SUBTROPICAL JETSTREAM MOVING INTO THE EASTERN GOMEX BY TONIGHT WILL INDUCE A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH TO FORM IN THE THE FL KEYS/STRAITS. SURFACE REFLECTION OF TROUGHING OVER SOUTHEAST FLORIDA AND NORTHERN BAHAMA ISLANDS AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH ON WED IS MAINTAINED THROUGH FRI. LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 50S INTERIOR. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST U. SOUTHWEST WINDS EARLY MON BECOME NORTHWEST THEN NORTHEAST MON NIGHT AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES DOWN THE PENINSULA INTO SOUTH FLORIDA AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST BUILDS OVER FLORIDA. TROUGHING DAMPENS ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD SOUTH.
429 AM EST TUE DEC 8 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT. DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE PRESENT TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN EFFECT.
AS RIDGE AXIS WILL AGAIN RAPIDLY PUSH ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND BECOME CENTERED OVER THE CWA BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE MORE WEST TO SOUTHWEST THE LOW LEVEL WINDS.
1139 PM CST MON DEC 7 2015 A seasonably warm day is underway across the region this afternoon, with temperatures topping out in the low 60s in many spots--some 10-15 degrees above average. Temperatures may see a degree or two boost, with highs in the low to perhaps mid 60s area-wide. Despite the (dry) passage of a cold front associated with this wave, temperatures on Wednesday will remain well above normal, as winds become southwesterly once again across the area.
WEAK RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH TOMORROW. SUBSIDENCE ALONG THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF THIS RIDGE WILL PROMOTE CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CWA. THE HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY WILL BE DEPENDENT UPON THE CLOUD COVER SITUATION AS MOST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT CLOUD COVER WILL BE SLOW TO EXIT THE REGION. HIGHS WILL LIKELY REACH THE LOWER 60S.
/ISSUED 951 PM CST MON DEC 7 2015/ EVENING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED WEAK SURFACE RIDGING IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION.
STILL MAY BE SOME LIGHT RAIN OR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IN THE FAR NORTHWEST CWA LATE TONIGHT. PRECIPITATION TYPE EARLY ON IS A BIT TRICKY AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES MAY BE JUST COOL ENOUGH FOR SOME FREEZING RAIN. RIDGING WILL KEEP THINGS DRY TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
WEAK RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH TOMORROW. SUBSIDENCE ALONG THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF THIS RIDGE WILL PROMOTE CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CWA. THE HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY WILL BE DEPENDENT UPON THE CLOUD COVER SITUATION AS MOST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT CLOUD COVER WILL BE SLOW TO EXIT THE REGION. HIGHS WILL LIKELY REACH THE LOWER 60S. MOST OF THIS PERIOD WILL BE DRY WITH WARMING HIGH TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO 30 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY WITH THE LONG WAVE RIDGE TO THE WEST.
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS WITH HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL GIVE US A COOLER MORNING THAN WE HAVE SEEN THE PAST COUPE OF DAYS. NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL GRADUALLY AMPLIFY AS A TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY WHILE AT THE SURFACE. AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH MODELS SHOWING AN INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPING LATE IN THE DAY.
202 AM EST TUE DEC 8 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL.
407 AM EST TUE DEC 8 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL.
South to southwest wind gusts of 18-20 KTS are possible at KABI and KSJT from late morning into mid afternoon, as lee trough develops. /issued 546 PM CST MON DEC 7 2015/ /00Z TAFS/ Lee trough will be increasing Tuesday, with wind gusts of 18-20 KTS developing at KABI and KSJT towards noon Tuesday. /issued 343 PM CST MON DEC 7 2015/ (Tonight and Tuesday) Look for beautiful weather to continue for the next 24 hours, as high pressure dominates. Lows tonight will be slightly warmer than last night, as low-level flow from the south brings warmer air into West Central Texas. Highs tomorrow will be even warmer than today, mainly in the lower to mid 70s.
Cooler temperatures by the end of the week can bring snow to the low elevations of the Columbia Basin. Given the track of the low was a bit further south than expected. 20 degrees above average for this time of the year! Given the more southern track of the low we are not expecting the breezy winds across the Spokane area tonight. Locations closer to the vicinity of the low will continue to see breezy winds through the evening.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH OF THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND RESULTING IN WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. STRATUS LAYER COVERS AREAS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MTNS WHILE SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG IS EVIDENT OVER AUGUSTA AND ROCKINGHAM COUNTIES. THERE WILL ALSO BE HIGH CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE LOCAL AREA WELL AHEAD OF NEXT MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FCST TO SWING THROUGH THE AREA WED NIGHT.
311 AM CST TUE DEC 8 2015 VISIBILITIES TO 1/4 MILE OR LESS ARE BECOMING INCREASINGLY COMMON WITH EXPANSIVE FOG OR FREEZING FOG AREA WIDE. WILL UPGRADE FROM SPS AND ISSUE FOG ADVISORY AND HIT UPON EMBEDDED AREAS OF FREEZING FOG CREATING SLICK ROADWAY CONDITIONS AT TIMES. A TROF PASSAGE LATER TONIGHT-WEDNESDAY COULD MEAN SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES. Had to update/amend and pretty much sock all sites in with Fog or Freezing Fog/LIFR cigs this morning.
AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGREES WARMER ALONG THE RIVER AND COAST DUE TO THE WARMER WATERS. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE REGION BUT THE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN TOO DRY TO SUPPORT ANY PCP. APPEARS THE NAM OVER DEVELOPS AN INVERTED TROUGH ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA AND GENERATES SCATTERED/NUMEROUS SHOWERS. PREFER THE DRIER GFS/ECMWF THAT KEEPS THE INVERTED TROUGH AND DEEP MOISTURE WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA. INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S INLAND TO NEAR 70 ALONG THE COAST WITH AN AFTERNOON SEABREEZE.
LATEST GUIDANCE HAS SHOWN A SLIGHTLY DEEPER TROUGH THAN PREVIOUS RUNS AND IS NOW SHOWING SOME LIGHT QPF OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA.
214 AM EST TUE DEC 8 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 35 62 38 58 / 0 0 10 10 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 34 58 38 57 / 0 0 10 10 OAK RIDGE, TN 33 59 37 56 / 0 0 10 10 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 31 56 32 55 / 10 0 10 10.
349 AM EST TUE DEC 8 2015 LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER AL AND WEST TN AND DRIFTING EAST. A LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO CLIMB INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S TODAY.
/ISSUED 916 PM CST MON DEC 7 2015/ MIDEVENING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A PRESSURE RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL COVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN U. DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S AND LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL AS THE AIR BEHIND THE FRONT IS NOT MUCH COOLER THAN AHEAD OF IT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.
Low level moisture/clouds will continue to erode from the west as drier high pressure overspreads the region. As the high pressure slides off to the east Tuesday a short wave will pull/push a frontal boundary across the area Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Beyond that high pressure at the surface and zonal flow aloft should keep the region dry with above normal temperatures through the remainder of the period.
1135 PM CST MON DEC 7 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE WITH WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING. /ISSUED 539 PM CST MON DEC 7 2015/ HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. WHILE ALOFT AN UPPER RIDGE WILL THROUGH THE REGION.
220 AM CST TUE DEC 8 2015 WX MAP SHOWS 1022MB HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS OVER SE TX/LA/MS THIS MORNING. AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST BY THIS EVENING. HIGHS WED SHOULD REACH THE LOWER/MID 70S. COURSE OF LEAST REGRET THIS FAR OUT IS TO CONTINUE WITH SUPERBLEND WITH THE HIGHEST POPS LATE SAT/EARLY SUN (~50-60%).
216 AM MDT FRI OCT 16 2015 UPPER PATTERN WILL CHANGE VERY LITTLE THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A RIDGE AXIS FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TO TEXAS AND TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST CONUS. COLDEST MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S AND CAN FIND NO REASON TO DEVIATE SO THE CURRENT FROST ADVISORY LOOKS OK. THIS WILL BE RECIRCULATED COLD AIR THAT HAS ONLY BEEN SLIGHTLY MODIFIED RESULTING IN AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
CLEAR SKIES WITH FREEZING TEMPS TONIGHT. FREEZING TEMPERATURES TONIGHT HIGHLIGHT THE SHORT TERM FORECAST. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING AND INTO THE NIGHT. THE COOLER EDGE OF GUIDANCE WAS FAVORED FOR LOWS TONIGHT PER RECENT VERIFICATION. DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE WESTERN RIDGE MOVES INTO THE REGION BY SATURDAY EVENING.
RESULTING IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL AS COOLER TEMPERATURES. THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS SHOWED THE CLOSED UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA WEAKENING AND BECOMING AN OPEN WAVE BY TONIGHT.
A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA TODAY. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
ANOTHER NIGHT OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND NEAR-FREEZING LOW TEMPERATURES ON THE WAY, AS REGION REMAINS UNDER DRY, STABLE CONDITIONS FROM HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING CURRENTLY CENTERED ALONG THE WA/OR/ID BORDER. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE, CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM THE 4-CORNERS REGION TO THE PACIFIC NW, WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, REACHING A POSITION JUST EAST OF THE U. DRY CONDITIONS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WITH SOME INCREASE IN CLOUD-COVER SATURDAY AS THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES AND NORTHERN PLAINS STATES WILL SLOWLY SLIDE EAST WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND GREAT BASIN BY SATURDAY.
A FEW AREAS HAVE ALREADY SEEN LOW TEMPERATURES THIS SEASON AT OR A LITTLE BELOW FREEZING BUT MOST AREAS HAVE NOT. NEAR TO SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED OVER MANY AREAS PARTICULARLY EC WYOMING INTO THE NEB PANHANDLE AND HAVE POSTED FROST ADVY/FREEZE WARNINGS WHERE THIS SHOULD OCCUR. RIDGE AXIS SHOULD SLIP EAST OF THE CWA SAT NIGHT ALLOWING FOR A BIT OF MOISTURE TO ADVECT OVER THE AREA FROM THE SW WITH A FEW SHOWERS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION OVER THE HIGHER MTNS LATE SATURDAY.
WHEN LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL MOVED OVER THE LOWER AND MIDDLE KEYS WITH MINOR ACCUMULATIONS. AN 850 TO 700 MB HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE LOUISIANA AREA TODAY WILL SLIGHTLY SHIFT WESTWARD TONIGHT.
443 AM EDT FRI OCT 16 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TODAY. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL BRING MUCH COLDER AIR TO THE NORTH COUNTRY LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREEN MOUNTAINS.
FROST AND FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. FORECAST ISSUES IN THE NEAR TERM INCLUDE PRECIP TYPE TODAY INTO SATURDAY AND THE EXTENT OF FROST AND FREEZING TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT. WITH THE TROUGH AXIS SHIFTING EAST AND SFC RIDGING BUILDING IN ON SATURDAY. CLOUDS TONIGHT WILL LIMIT FROST BUT THE AIRMASS IS COLD ENOUGH THAT SOME PLACES AWAY FROM THE LAKE COULD GET DOWN TO FREEZING OR BELOW. TEMPS ATTM ARE ALREADY CLOSE TO FREEZING ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN DESPITE EXTENSIVE CLOUDS AND WIND.
531 AM EDT FRI OCT 16 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. IN ITS WAKE HIGH PRESSURE FROM CANADA WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION RESULTING IN COLDER TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND. COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE OF OUR WEATHER PATTERN THIS PERIOD. GUSTIER WINDS FROM FRIDAY NIGHT WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH ON SATURDAY AS THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS OVER THE CENTRAL OHIO RIVER VALLEY.
Ahead of this feature, a cold front also will approach the region, passing the region overnight. This high will make it to the MO/IL/IA border by daybreak Saturday.
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY OVER THE REGION TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM MID-ATLANTIC.
EXPECT THE SHOWERS TO CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING AS THE CORE OF COLDEST AIR WITH H85 TEMPS APPROACHING -10C REACHES THE FORECAST AREA AND LATEST NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW LINGERING SMALL CAPE VALUES IN THE SATURATED LAYER ABOVE THE FREEZING LEVEL THROUGH MIDNIGHT. ONLY LIGHT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR LESS ARE EXPECTED IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS THAT FAVOR LES. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY EVENING AS RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILDS INTO THE REGION. TEMPS ALOFT WILL TREND SLIGHTLY WARMER AND WIND SHEAR WILL INCREASE AS SURFACE WINDS BACK WESTERLY WHILE FLOW ALOFT REMAINS NORTH- WESTERLY. RIDGING WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND LEADING TO MAINLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST. ALLOWING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO APPROACH THE AREA.
300 AM CDT FRI OCT 16 2015 HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY FOR THE WEEKEND. THE HIGH WILL ALSO HELP USHER IN SOME COLDER.
307 AM CDT FRI OCT 16 2015 Breezy and much cooler conditions will be noted across central Illinois today, as a strong cold front settles southward toward the Gulf Coast. Strong 1032mb Canadian high pressure will settle southeastward to near the Mississippi River tonight. excellent radiational cooling conditions will result in freezing temperatures across much of the area by dawn Saturday. Think coldest readings in the upper 20s will generally be focused along/west of the I-55 corridor where winds will be lightest, with warmest temps in the lower 30s further southeast toward the Indiana border. With freezing conditions likely. Further south where temps will hover near or slightly above freezing. High pressure will drift overhead on Saturday, providing sunny but very cool weather with highs only reaching the 50s.
HIGH PRESSURE. TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING HAVE FALLEN WELL BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY FALL BELOW FREEZING AGAIN. HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL BE INITIALLY IN PLACE OVER NORTH AMERICA WITH LONGWAVE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE WEST AND TROUGH ALONG THE EAST COAST. THE PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE PUSHES EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA AS A TROUGH MOVES INTO WESTERN CONUS.
415 AM MDT FRI OCT 16 2015 THE PACIFIC LOW WILL MOVE OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TODAY AS A KICKER LOW PRESSURE TROUGH APPROACHES THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS JUST UPSTREAM OF THE LOW INDICATE THAT PLENTY OF MOISTURE HAS BEEN ENTRAINED IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE DISTURBANCE ACROSS SOUTHERN CA/NV.
ONE MORE DAY FOR THE UPPER RIDGE AND THE ACCOMPANYING DRY WEATHER AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. A SPLITTING UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES THE WEST COAST ON SATURDAY. THE NEGATIVE TILT TROUGH AND PROCESS OF CUTTING OFF FAVOR A SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESSION AND FORECAST MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLOWER WITH THIS SYSTEM.
/ISSUED 654 PM CDT THU OCT 15 2015/ A COLD FRONT IS WORKING ITS WAY INTO NORTH ARKANSAS THIS EVENING.
1206 AM CDT FRI OCT 16 2015 FOR 06Z TAFS /ISSUED 959 PM CDT THU OCT 15 2015/ PRIMARY FEATURE OF INTEREST FOR THE FORECAST TONIGHT CONTINUES TO BE A SEASONABLY STRONG COLD FRONT CURRENTLY PUSHING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/OZARKS -- WHICH SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA BETWEEN 06-10Z. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY AVERAGE 5-10 DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT DUE TO CLOUDS/WIND AND LAG TIME OF COLD AIR ADVECTION IN WAKE OF THE FRONT. STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO APPROACH FROM THE NW THIS EVENING.
142 AM EDT FRI OCT 16 2015 SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY A COLD FRONT TONIGHT. RAIN IS HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME MAKING MUCH SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION AS THE LOWER LEVEL AIRMASS IS QUITE DRY. INCREASED CLOUD COVER CAN BE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. POPS WERE TAPERED OFF IN THE PREDAWN HOURS AS PER NAM TIMING OF EXITING MID LVL TROUGH/PCPN SUPPORT. HIGH AMPLITUDE ERN CONUS TROUGHING IS STILL PROGGED FOR THE WEEKEND.
In the near term, surface cold front is just south of the Ohio River this morning. For today, an expansive area of high pressure will drop into the Midwest from Canada. On the heels of the cold front, northwesterly winds will allow an influx of cool and very dry Canadian air into the region. Highs today look to warm into the lower 60s in the north with lower-mid 60s across the south. Latest guidance is fairly consistent with the previous guidance dropping temperatures into the lower-middle 30s across the region. High pressure will continue to drop south and east during the day on Saturday.
THAT LONG WAVE RIDGE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST TODAY AND AN OFFSHORE KICKER TROUGH WILL LIFT THE LOW PORTION OF THE BLOCK NORTH. BUT SHORT WAVES EJECTING FROM THE LOW ALONG WITH SURFACE HEATING WILL SUPPORT SOME SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TODAY. ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE OFFSHORE TROUGH WILL MOVE ONSHORE SATURDAY. IT WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT ONSHORE SATURDAY.
NORTHWEST CA REMAINS IN THE AREA OF HIGHER PRESSURE BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL LOW TO SOUTH AND AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL PUSH SLOWLY OFF TO THE EAST AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. 5 INCHES IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF DEL NORTE COUNTY. THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO BRING MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND. BUT SOME OF THE MODELS HAVE THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER MOVING DIRECTLY OVER THE AREA WHICH WOULD IMPROVE THE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRING LIGHT RAIN TO MUCH OF THE REGION ALONG WITH COOLING TEMPERATURES. NORTHWEST CA REMAINS IN THE AREA OF HIGHER PRESSURE BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL LOW TO SOUTH AND AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL PUSH SLOWLY OFF TO THE EAST AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. 5 INCHES IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF DEL NORTE COUNTY. THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO BRING MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND. BUT SOME OF THE MODELS HAVE THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER MOVING DIRECTLY OVER THE AREA WHICH WOULD IMPROVE THE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
138 AM EDT FRI OCT 16 2015 41 LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL OF THE LOCAL WEATHER WITH CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS AND SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. MUCH COOLER TEMPS BEHIND THE FRONT UPPER 30S LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF THE NE MOUNTAINS.
342 AM CDT FRI OCT 16 2015 MAIN CONCERNS IN THIS FORECAST CYCLE REMAIN THE HIGH WILD FIRE DANGER. EARLY THIS MORNING THE COLD FRONT HAD PUSHED TO NEAR MENA.
411 AM CDT FRI OCT 16 2015 (Today and Tonight) A cold front is currently moving south through west and northwest Texas early this morning. Behind the front, cooler and generally drier air will move in. With the slowing of the front, the Big Country will benefit most from the effects of the front with highs ranging from the upper 70s to the lower 80s. The Concho Valley and Heartland areas should be a few degrees cooler with highs in the mid to upper 80s, and the I-10 corridor will range from the upper 80s to lower 90s. Northeast flow will eventually spread through the rest of the area by this evening, filtering the drier, cooler air into the rest of the CWA by Saturday morning.
557 AM CDT FRI OCT 16 2015 FOR 12Z TAFS /ISSUED 254 AM CDT FRI OCT 16 2015/ THE WELL ADVERTISED COLD FRONT IS ON OUR DOORSTEP JUST TO THE NORTHWEST. LIKELY DUE TO THE STRONG ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL BE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH TODAY AND UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE TIMING OF ITS ARRIVAL. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH SUN TO PUSH HIGHS INTO THE LOWER 70S TODAY. THE FIRST FROST OF THE SEASON FOR TONIGHT HAS BEEN WELL ADVERTISED BUT THINKING THAT IT WILL BE CONFINED TO THE TN COUNTIES AND MAYBE JUST SOME PATCHY FROST IN COOLER VALLEYS ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA. THE COLD AIR WILL BE WELL IN PLACE AT THIS TIME AND HIGHS WILL BARELY MAKE IT INTO THE MIDDLE 60S AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE REGION.
TROUGH LEADING TO BROKEN TO OVERCAST MID AND HIGH CLOUDS SPREADING ACROSS MUCH OF REGION DURING THE DAY. MEANWHILE THE LOW LEVEL EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE BRINGING SOME ATLANTIC MOISTURE WESTWARD BUMPING DEW POINTS UP A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY. TONIGHT WE WILL SEE THE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS BEGIN TO SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST AS THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES BY WITH SKIES PARTLY CLOUDY NORTH TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SOUTH. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS MUCH OF THE NATURE COAST TO THE LOWER 70S NEAR THE COAST FROM AROUND TAMPA BAY SOUTHWARD. ON SATURDAY A COOL FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO NORTH FLORIDA DURING THE DAY WITH THE LOW LEVEL EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW CONTINUING.
A low-level ridge axis will be situated across the forecast area today in advance of a surface cold front.
NOT AS COLD IN MOST LOCATIONS AS THE AIRMASS CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MODERATE AFTER OUR RECENT COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
AUTUMN WEATHER LOOKS TO FINALLY ARRIVE TO THE REGION AS THE UPPER RIDGE THAT BROUGHT RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA SHIFTS EAST. A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OFFSHORE BRINGS INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW. THE UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS WITH A CUTOFF LOW FORMING AND MOVING TO THE COAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE GFS HAS THIS LOW ON THE STATE LINE AND THE NAM12 BRINGING THE LOW NEAR COOS BAY. WITH THE INCREASED SOUTHERLY FLOW AND THE UPPER LOW BRINING A COLD POOL INTO NW CALIFORNIA INSTABLITY SPREADS FROM THE EAST SIDE TO NW CA/EXTREME SW OREGON AND HAVE ADDED THUNDERSTORMS TO THAT AREA AS WELL.
343 AM CDT FRI OCT 16 2015 RELIEF FROM THE RECORD BREAKING HEAT WE HAVE EXPERIENCED THIS WEEK IS ARRIVING IN NORTH TEXAS IN THE FORM OF A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S ACROSS OUR FAR NORTH AND NORTHWEST COUNTIES TO THE LOWER 90S IN OUR FAR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES. EVEN WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NW EARLY THIS MORNING AS A SECONDARY COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. LOW TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM NEAR FREEZING AT THE LAKE TO MID TO UPPER 20S INLAND AND OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WI.
332 AM CDT FRI OCT 16 2015 High thin cirrus moving though western Kansas has contributed to slightly warmer temperatures through mid morning. The latest Rapid Refresh hourly temperatures by a few hours out indicates slightly warmer temperatures than were forecast as well, and suggests lows across the north likely in the low 40s. As winds shift to the south on Saturday, ending the weak cold advection pattern, highs can be expected to be at least a category or two warmer.