Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1141 PM MDT Sat Jun 18 2022 Convection ahead of the next trough has been slower to get going early this afternoon as compared to yesterday. Will be cooler, but still seasonally warm tomorrow, especially across eastern zones. Our other concern today and tomorrow will be the higher rates of snowmelt. The upper trough moves across Montana and WY on Monday.
328 AM EDT Sun Jun 19 2022 Discussion/Marine -- Warm and Dry weather will dominate the weather this week -- An upper level ridge over the United States will dominate the weather pattern through the week.
255 AM EDT Sun Jun 19 2022 High pressure will build into the region today and remain in place through Monday.
Short term (Rest of Today and Sunday): A hot afternoon across South Florida as temps are in the low to mid 90s. A few strong to severe storms are possible with diurnal heating and cooler temperatures aloft.
359 AM EDT Sun Jun 19 2022 Conditions to finish the weekend period marked by building upper heights within prevailing mid level northwest flow, as a 593 dm large scale ridge centered over the middle Mississippi valley edges eastward with time. High degree of deep layer stability held within this pattern as lingering surface ridging only slowly releases eastward ensures benign weather for the daylight period. Mid level flow backs sufficiently to eventually draw an elevated warm frontal zone into lower Michigan by evening. Any lingering early day convection swept eastward as the trailing surface warm front migrates through on Monday.
Big ridge in place just means we will continue to be hot but one saving grace is the weak boundary that pushed through today will bring lower dewpoints so our heat indices might remain below 100 degrees for maybe a day. The ridge will slowly drift southward on Monday and east southeasterly surface flow will allow for the 70s dewpoints to surge back into the area. No storms are expected the next two days as overall subsidence from the ridge will inhibit any storm development.
The very slow moving upper trough over the western U. As of 9 PM, the elongated axis of the longwave trough extended from the Sierras in California into central Oregon/Washington. /GKoch 06Z TAFS: Widespread showers will persist over north central and northeast Washington through the night under a slow moving upper trough.
(Today through Monday) The upper level pattern across the CONUS throughout the short term will be an omega block with the upper level ridging centered across the Ozarks region. With South-Central Texas closer to the southern periphery of the ridge, just enough support could exist for a stray shower or convective cell this afternoon and isolated activity for Monday afternoon across areas mainly along and east of the I-35 corridor. Overnight lows remain steady too in the low to mid 70s.
The upper level ridge continues to build over the region and is currently centered over KS/MO. In fact, this high pressure is helping limit temperatures and dew points across the entire area. Our western counties can expect the low to mid 90s this afternoon with heat indices in the upper 90s up to around 103 degrees. Temperatures are back to the low to mid 90s across the area Monday with heat indices in the mid 90s to around 100 degrees.
336 AM CDT Sun Jun 19 2022 Current water vapor imagery shows a highly amplified upper-level pattern, with ridging over the center of the CONUS and troughing along both the west and east coasts. With the ridge's axis west of the CWA, weak northwesterly flow remains over the region. As a result, low-level flow will become increasingly southerly to southwesterly and begin advecting warmer air into the CWA. Temperatures at 850 mb will warm from the upper-teens into the low 20s C by the afternoon, resulting in surface temperatures in the low to mid 90s. Dew points will begin creeping up as well, with values currently expected to be in the low to mid 60s during the afternoon.
1243 AM EDT Sun Jun 19 2022 Canadian high pressure will usher drier and noticeably cooler air into the Carolinas through early Monday with below normal temperatures expected.
With a relatively "cooler" Canadian airmass aloft, 850 mb temperatures around 13C, expect another pleasant Sunday with highs reaching the low to middle 80s. High pressure shifts southeast toward the Appalachians and Mid Atlantic region on Monday while the upper level ridge axis moves directly over the midwest.
A trough emanating from an area of low pressure over the Canadian maritimes will meander around South Florida today as high pressure is pinched north and westward.
1108 PM CDT Sat Jun 18 2022 A ridge is in place from central Canada to the Gulf of Mexico. There is a trough over the Northeast and another one over the West Coast. With the ridge in place, above normal temperatures persist across Kansas by around five to ten degrees with values in the mid to upper 90s. Monday is anticipated to be a tad warmer with high temperatures approaching the century mark in north central Kansas.
Current temperatures are in the low 60s to near 70 degrees across the Midsouth.
High pressure continues across the central United States with a trough positioned over the western portion. This trough will be what continues to influence the weather for the next few days. For Sunday, the trough will continue to propagate across the state, towards New Mexico, limiting the precipitation chances to the eastern portions of Arizona. Freezing to below-freezing temperatures are a possibility from Flagstaff to the north and west. On Monday, temperatures will begin to increase as the trough begins to retreat to the north and east.
interior as a 500 mb closed cyclone has opened up into a highly amplified and sharp mid/upper-level trough per 06Z upper air analysis. This has modulated the amplitude and position of the sub-tropical ridge, currently centered over the middle Missouri and Mississippi River Valleys. The best potential for isolated to possibly widely-scattered rain showers and thunderstorms will be across the Rolling Plains where the EML, albeit weak, remains in place along the western periphery of the departing sub-tropical ridging as high-level flow veers from a 250 mb jet streak nosing into Alberta and Manitoba.
632 AM EDT Sun Jun 19 2022 High pressure will build across the area through today.
620 AM EDT Sun Jun 19 2022 High pressure brings dry, unseasonably cool weather through tonight.
A ridge of high pressure will be nudging into the area as the low pressure system that has brought all the showers exits the area. Morning frost is expected east of the Cascades, with a few places that are traditionally colder seeing brief periods of freezing temperatures possible. Conditions will turn warmer and drier as a ridge of high pressure and thermal trough builds into the area. This thermal trough may be particularly strong as it appears on the 500 mb height maps for all of the deterministic models. This will cause quite a dramatic increase in temperatures despite the ridge of high pressure largely remaining offshore.
The low level trough across the northern peninsula will slip slowly south today with favored convection ahead of the boundary and then developing into the interior by mid to late afternoon. Low level ENE flow is forecast to increase to 10-15 knots in the low layers which should focus much of the convection across the interior counties past 5 pm.
The upper level trough over the Pacific Northwest, which has brought the shower activity for the past few days, is finally shifting eastwards. The highest probability for thunderstorms exists from Lemhi County east and north towards Butte, Anaconda and MacDonald Pass through this afternoon. As the upper level low progresses eastwards over southwest Montana later tonight, widespread precipitation and cooler temperatures can be expected. 75 inches in the higher terrain along and west of the Continental Divide.
603 AM CDT Sun Jun 19 2022 Current water vapor imagery shows a highly amplified upper-level pattern, with ridging over the center of the CONUS and troughing along both the west and east coasts. With the ridge's axis west of the CWA, weak northwesterly flow remains over the region. As a result, low-level flow will become increasingly southerly to southwesterly and begin advecting warmer air into the CWA. Temperatures at 850 mb will warm from the upper-teens into the low 20s C by the afternoon, resulting in surface temperatures in the low to mid 90s. Dew points will begin creeping up as well, with values currently expected to be in the low to mid 60s during the afternoon.
520 AM MDT Sun Jun 19 2022 The blocking pattern that has slowed weather progression across the US will finally start to break down today, allowing the PacNW trough to finally shift east into the Rockies.
At the surface, the cold front has pushed into the northern Gulf with high pressure centered across the Great Lakes.
635 AM CDT Sun Jun 19 2022 Widespread VFR conditions are expected through the period as high pressure dominates. Tonight through Monday night A highly amplified pattern is in place across the country this morning with upper troughs located over the Great Basin and along the East Coast. In between is a sprawling ridge of high pressure that is located pretty much on top of the state. The upper high will remain over the region through the period and beyond. A break from the steam heat of late will occur today as a slightly cooler but considerably drier air mass is overspreading the area. Surface analysis shows the back door cold front that kicked off yesterdays convection has just about cleared the state but still has to go through the SW corner.
922 AM CDT Sun Jun 19 2022 Scattered showers and thunderstorms have developed along and south of the International Border this morning in a zone of 925 to 700 mb frontogenesis on the leading edge of a warm front. Have stuck fairly close to the NBM guidance which is a few degrees warmer than a blend of our usual deterministic guidance, and is fairly close to the bias corrected data.
An unseasonably strong upper level trough has now moved into the intermountain states and northerly flow aloft has developed over the west coast. A short wave sliding down the backside of the trough will bring isolated showers today to the northern Umpqua Basin, the northern Cascades, and the east side. A ridge is now building into the area from the west. A Chetco effect event will likely begin Monday, bringing high temperatures in the lower 80s to the Brookings area. A strong thermal trough will develop near the coast, and this will bring strong north winds to the coast and coastal waters.
645 AM EDT Sun Jun 19 2022 Upper level low pressure will slowly cross the region today then move east across the Maritimes Monday.
449 AM CDT Sun Jun 19 2022 Today and Tonight: A cold front will continue to move south through the region this early morning filtering some drier air behind it. How, you may ask? Well thanks to the previous mentioned cold front pushing across the region, dewpoint values will fall from the mid to upper 70s to the mid 60s meaning we will transition from a muggy/humid heat to a more dry heat today. While temps in the 90s are still warm, any relief is good relief! Tonight, expect lows to mainly be in the 60s with the exception of areas along and south of the Highway 84 corridor where lows will be in the low 70s.
621 AM CDT Sun Jun 19 2022 (Today through Monday) The upper level pattern across the CONUS throughout the short term will be an omega block with the upper level ridging centered across the Ozarks region. With South-Central Texas closer to the southern periphery of the ridge, just enough support could exist for a stray shower or convective cell this afternoon and isolated activity for Monday afternoon across areas mainly along and east of the I-35 corridor. Overnight lows remain steady too in the low to mid 70s.
Have stuck fairly close to the NBM guidance which is a few degrees warmer than a blend of our usual deterministic guidance, and is fairly close to the bias corrected data.
601 AM EDT Sun Jun 19 2022 High pressure maintains control of the region this morning with nearly calm wind and clear skies beneath a patchy coverage of cirrus streaming in from the north. Conditions to finish the weekend period marked by building upper heights within prevailing mid level northwest flow, as a 593 dm large scale ridge centered over the middle Mississippi valley edges eastward with time. High degree of deep layer stability held within this pattern as lingering surface ridging only slowly releases eastward ensures benign weather for the daylight period. Mid level flow backs sufficiently to eventually draw an elevated warm frontal zone into lower Michigan by evening. Any lingering early day convection swept eastward as the trailing surface warm front migrates through on Monday.
High pressure will maintain dry and cool weather today, although temperatures will be several degrees warmer than yesterday. Mid and upper level clouds will increase from the north late today, riding down the eastern side of an approaching 500mb ridge. Warm frontal passage is expected Monday around mid-day. If any precipitation does fall, it will have to overcome a deep surface dry layer in wake of the trough. Monday night will be defined by warm advection under a building ridge coincident with seasonable lows and rising dewpoints.
534 AM EDT Sun Jun 19 2022 Upper level low pressure will slowly cross the region today then move east across the Maritimes Monday.
Upper air and satellite data showing ridging remaining the primary feature across the region early this morning, with the axis running roughly from eastern TX northward into the eastern Dakotas. This ridging is sandwiched between low pressure spinning over the northeastern CONUS coast and another system digging south along the West Coast. At the surface, the CWA continues to sit between high pressure extending from Ontario southward through the Great Lakes/Midwest regions and a trough of low pressure draped through the High Plains. Models remain in good agreement showing that outside of a bit of an eastward shift of the main upper level ridge axis, no notable changes to the pattern are expected through tonight.
524 AM MDT Sun Jun 19 2022 A moist south-southwest flow aloft will continue through this evening around an upper level high off to the east and a trough over the Northern Rockies. Will see scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms move across the high country this afternoon and early evening. Still expect isolated to scattered convection due to the moist airmass and should see some convergence along outflow boundaries that begin in the higher terrain and spread eastward. Highs today will be a little cooler, especially along and west of I-25 where greater cloud cover will be. The upper level trough axis continues to sit west of Colorado pushing northward.
912 AM EDT Sun Jun 19 2022 Upper level low pressure will slowly cross the region today then move east across the Maritimes Monday.
That should add up to more sustained surface heating today, however we'll also start to see some drying from the west as the Great Basin trough lifts northeastward into the northern plains.
925 AM EDT Sun Jun 19 2022 High pressure will build across the area through today.
A trough continued to push from west to east across the western United States this morning. Moisture drawn northward ahead of this trough was producing scattered showers and thunderstorms mainly east of a Black Canyon City to Four Corners line. trough will continue to push eastward delivering a drier air mass to much of northern Arizona. Along with the trough will come relatively strong surface pressure gradients with gusty southwest winds at 20 to 30 mph over most of northern Arizona.
424 AM MDT Sun Jun 19 2022 A moist south-southwest flow aloft will continue through this evening around an upper level high off to the east and a trough over the Northern Rockies. Will see scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms move across the high country this afternoon and early evening. Still expect isolated to scattered convection due to the moist airmass and should see some convergence along outflow boundaries that begin in the higher terrain and spread eastward. Highs today will be a little cooler, especially along and west of I-25 where greater cloud cover will be. The upper level trough axis continues to sit west of Colorado pushing northward.
A familiar weather pattern, at least with respect to heat and wind, will persist over the next 24-48 hours with continued warmups through the upper 90s to around 100 degrees in the afternoons followed by a limited cooldown overnight to the low 70s. As western Kansas remains in a warm sector regime under a ridge aloft, the afternoon gustiness will return again Today as the boundary layer mixes out dry adiabatic to near 700 mb with average winds around 25 knots in the 900-800 mb layer mid afternoon. A slight breakdown in the upper ridge and increased flow aloft will allow typical June eastern Colorado convective development reaches farther east to around the Kansas line in the evening before losing diurnal heating and dissipating.
345 AM PDT Sun Jun 19 2022 Today will be mostly sunny with seasonal temperatures as a departing trough moves inland the West.
301 AM MDT Sun Jun 19 2022 Pacific trough will push through the region today. Another round of showers and thunderstorms is expected for Monday, however maximum temperatures are expected to be about 10 degrees cooler than today's highs.
354 AM MDT Sun Jun 19 2022 The blocking pattern that has slowed weather progression across the US will finally start to break down today, allowing the PacNW trough to finally shift east into the Rockies.
A low pressure system slowly lifting away to the northern Rockies will lead to diminishing winds aross our region today through Monday with temperatures well below late June normals.
315 AM MDT Sun Jun 19 2022 An active day of weather ahead as an upper trough advances toward the area and kicks strong energy across for strong, large scale ascent. Today will certainly be much cooler with clouds, showers and northeast winds. The upper trough kicks northeast into north central Montana on Monday. Temperatures will be cooler than today, with highs in the 60s west, and 70s central and east.
/JNE/ Today and Tonight: A cold front will continue to move south through the region this early morning filtering some drier air behind it. How, you may ask? Well thanks to the previous mentioned cold front pushing across the region, dewpoint values will fall from the mid to upper 70s to the mid 60s meaning we will transition from a muggy/humid heat to a more dry heat today. While temps in the 90s are still warm, any relief is good relief! Tonight, expect lows to mainly be in the 60s with the exception of areas along and south of the Highway 84 corridor where lows will be in the low 70s.
522 AM MDT Sun Jun 19 2022 The upper ridge sits east of the forecast area today, with the upper trough over The Rockies, and southwest flow aloft. Later tonight a cold front passes through the region, bringing more seasonable temperatures to start the work week, with highs Monday in the 70s and 80s for most of the forecast area.
High pressure was centered over the Great Lakes early this morning, with clear skies and comfortable conditions found over eastern Iowa, northwest Illinois, and far northeast Missouri. As of 200 AM, temperatures ranged from 51 in Sterling, to 64 in Keokuk, with the low values thanks to dry dewpoints in the 40s and 50s. [Key Messages] 1) Warm temperatures and dry conditions to close out the weekend [Discussion] High pressure will slowly move southeast through the day, and will be in place over the Ohio River Valley this evening. Warmer temperatures will follow, with highs this afternoon climbing into the mid to upper 80s and overnight lows only dropping into the 60s.
Onshore flow prevails today for a slight chance of showers and cooler conditions. A ridge will bring drier conditions on Monday.
Cooler today and tonight, with highs in the 60s, then overnight lows dropping into the low 30s or possibly even upper 20s.
Key Messages: 1) After a slightly "cooler" day today, expect hot conditions to continue this week.
611 AM EDT Sun Jun 19 2022 Dry and warmer weather can be expected for the early portions of the week.
1245 PM CDT Sun Jun 19 2022 (Today through Monday) The upper level pattern across the CONUS throughout the short term will be an omega block with the upper level ridging centered across the Ozarks region. With South-Central Texas closer to the southern periphery of the ridge, just enough support could exist for a stray shower or convective cell this afternoon and isolated activity for Monday afternoon across areas mainly along and east of the I-35 corridor. Overnight lows remain steady too in the low to mid 70s.
Lacy (Tonight through Sunday) H5 ridge will maintain control over the weather this coming week.
230 PM EDT Sun Jun 19 2022 High pressure along with cooler and drier air will remain in control of the region through Monday providing seasonable temperatures for mid-June.
218 PM EDT Sun Jun 19 2022 High pressure continues dry, unseasonably cool weather through tonight.
1218 PM CDT Sun Jun 19 2022 Current water vapor imagery shows a highly amplified upper-level pattern, with ridging over the center of the CONUS and troughing along both the west and east coasts. With the ridge's axis west of the CWA, weak northwesterly flow remains over the region. As a result, low-level flow will become increasingly southerly to southwesterly and begin advecting warmer air into the CWA. Temperatures at 850 mb will warm from the upper-teens into the low 20s C by the afternoon, resulting in surface temperatures in the low to mid 90s. Dew points will begin creeping up as well, with values currently expected to be in the low to mid 60s during the afternoon.
1116 AM MDT Sun Jun 19 2022 The upper ridge sits east of the forecast area today, with the upper trough over The Rockies, and southwest flow aloft. Later tonight a cold front passes through the region, bringing more seasonable temperatures to start the work week, with highs Monday in the 70s and 80s for most of the forecast area. MVFR and localized IFR ceilings will move into northeast WY and far northwest SD tonight behind a cold front.
(This evening through Monday) Southeasterly flow in the low levels has continued today, bringing in slightly higher moisture values across parts of the area, resulting in temperatures being a degree or two cooler so far this afternoon. Lows tonight will be similar to the last several nights, mainly in the low to mid 70s.
Discussion: High pressure centered across the Southern Appalachians tonight will result in a clear sky and calm, weak down valley winds. Upper level 500mb heights will increase to around 590 to 594 dam as the upper ridge expands eastward through the afternoon and 850mb temperatures climb 2C to 3C warmer than observed on Sunday. This will result in slightly warmer surface max temperatures during the afternoon hours. With the low-level ridge remaining centered over the Mid-South and Southern Mississippi valley, moisture return will be limited as westerly low-level flow prevails across the Tennessee Valley.
1237 PM CDT Sun Jun 19 2022 Key Messages: 1) After a slightly "cooler" day today, expect hot conditions to continue this week.
Highs are expected to be a few degrees warmer Monday with temperatures mostly ranging from the mid 90s to around 100.
The overall upper air pattern wl rmn stagnant acrs the country, with corresponding trofs acrs the Wrn U. This wl keep a persistent upper ridge ovr the MS River Valley, resulting in dry and hot conds for the foreseeable future.
1231 PM CDT Sun Jun 19 2022 High pressure remains in control for the next few days. Winds remain southerly with the high pressure ridge axis to our east.