Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
242 PM CDT Sun Aug 2 2020 A cold front is moving southern Iowa and west central Illinois this afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms have formed ahead of the front, and also further south over the Ozarks in response to a lobe of vorticity moving around the base of the upper level long wave trough as well as low level moisture convergence/warm advection ahead of the front. The front will continue to move southeast tonight into Monday, but since the upper level support for the front is the nearly stationary long wave trough aloft, it's going to take its time.
On Monday, expect another afternoon with scattered convection as temps reach the lower to mid 90s.
407 PM CDT Sun Aug 2 2020 Upper air analysis showed a trough axis from Hudson Bay to northwest Gulf of Mexico and west to southwest flow over Lower Mississippi Valley. Surface analysis showed a frontal boundary from north Georgia to southwest Mississippi and a cold front from Lake Michigan to northeast Texas to west Texas. Initial precipitable water field showed moisture pooling along ahead of the main trough with values around 2 inches from central Alabama to Lake Pontchartrain to northwest Gulf. The trough axis and secondary boundary will push through late Monday. Dry air ahead of the front and main trough will push south diminish most rain chances late tonight and Monday.
Current temperatures are already in the low 70s across portions of the Midsouth most of the area in the Mid 70s.
559 PM CDT Sun Aug 2 2020 First things first, isolated light showers clearly associated with the coldest air aloft this afternoon in parts of west central and southwest MN toward the Highway 14 corridor in SD will not have much more time as diurnal support wanes toward evening. A smattering of models suggest that could bubble up a couple of light showers or sprinkles ahead of the ridge axis toward Highway 60 and east, but given that temps aloft will be warming somewhat and flow much less cyclonic, will keep it at a decent cumulus field.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms have developed this afternoon near and behind a passing surface cold front. Some additional shower development will remain possible overnight as a 500 mb trough axis approaches from the northwest. We went with the NBM for lows with most areas falling into the lower 60s. Highs should range from the middle 70s across portions of central Missouri to the lower 80s around Joplin and Pineville.
655 PM CDT Sun Aug 2 2020 Temperatures will remain below early August climo through early this week within the northerly flow regime on the back side of the eastern CONUS longwave upper trof.
There is some PVA associated with a wave moving out ahead of the main trough and therefore some larger scale lift around.
627 PM CDT Sun Aug 2 2020 The cold front has shifted through the area and the broad line of showers, and a few isolated thunderstorms has shifted into eastern WI. Upper level troughing dominates this period with SCT-BKN cumulus in ~2kft layer of instability under the mid-level cap. Low-level ridging will provide at least a few thousand feet of light winds to allow for the possibility of valley fog for Tue/Wed mornings. This period is characterized by a bit more zonal-to-ridging pattern as the longwave amplitude across North America decrease.
955 PM CDT Sun Aug 2 2020 Daytime heating, higher moisture levels, a stronger spoke of vorticity passing across the back side of the mid level trof, and outflow/seabreeze interactions led to higher precip coverage and stronger storms than earlier anticipated.
Isolated showers will continue to be possible overnight in these areas ahead of an approaching 500mb trough and surface cold front, in a corridor of slightly increased low level moisture supply. This is in spite of another round of showers and thunderstorms set to move through Monday in association with a weak cold front currently stretching from the Great Lakes to central Missouri. Monday's highs will be mainly in the low to mid 80s, though increasing cloud cover and showers could hold some into the upper 70s. An upper level trough will remain in place over the region to begin the period Monday night. A weak cold front will be draped from Michigan southwest through the Lower Ohio Valley.
Strong high pressure aloft centered over the interior west will maintain hot and dry conditions through Monday. Infrared satellite imagery this evening shows a clockwise flow around a ridge axis parked nearly overhead of us. The CIRA GeoColor product shows quite a bit of smoke from the Apple Fire in SoCal being transported by southwesterly flow on the upstream side of the ridge into far southwest Utah, currently impacting St George. Satellite imagery also shows terrain-driven cumulus over the high terrain generally east of I-15 and over far northeast Nevada which are winding down as of this writing.
916 PM EDT Sun Aug 2 2020 Weak high pressure will quickly slide across the region overnight. A cold front will approach from the west on Monday and cross the area Monday night. High pressure will then build in for mid week. However, suppose it will be tough to rule out a few showers through the night and especially across our far west late tonight as the upper level trough axis continues to push east toward our area. Overnight lows will be in the lower to mid 60s. Energy moving through a mid level trough axis to our west will push into the region on Monday. This will also cause a weak cold front to approach the area. Temperatures will range from the upper 70s to mid 80s on Monday with lows back into the lower to mid 60s.
736 PM EDT Sun Aug 2 2020 Weak high pressure will quickly slide across the region overnight. A cold front will approach from the west on Monday and cross the area Monday night. High pressure will then build in for mid week. Lows will be in the lower to mid 60s. Energy moving through a mid level trough axis to our west will push into the region on Monday. This will also cause a weak cold front to approach the area. Temperatures will range from the upper 70s to mid 80s on Monday with lows back into the lower to mid 60s.
Near the bay and Lake Michigan, northeast winds off the relatively warmer waters along with 850mb temperatures of +6C to +8C will give temperatures differences of 13C to 15C.
BW Chattanooga Airport, TN 70 90 68 89 67 / 30 40 30 30 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 70 86 67 87 66 / 40 50 40 30 0 Oak Ridge, TN 68 87 66 86 65 / 30 40 30 30 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 67 81 64 83 63 / 50 60 50 40 10.
907 PM CDT Sun Aug 2 2020 Weak high pressure with drier air remains situated over the TN Valley this evening between a stalled boundary to the southeast and an approaching cold front to the northwest. An isolated shower or thunderstorm will be possible overnight, as subsidence is not as strong underneath the longwave trough settling over the Mid-MS Valley. Dew points in the low 60s will progress into the region overnight, causing dew point depressions to remain too large for fog development.
High pressure will slowly weaken tonight and Monday before a trough of low pressure moves into the region. Much cooler weather will be the rule this week with below seasonal normal temperatures.
As ridge of high pressure has already settled over Middle Tennessee, but a strong upper trough remains situated to our west.
A stronger trough is finally moving onto the upstream coast and the amplified ridge over the West is being nudged eastward. This shift in the ridge will be advecting in drier air for Monday as winds aloft become more westerly in the afternoon. This really looks to bring a downturn to the coverage of storms in the West with most of the activity pinned up to the higher Colorado ranges. Monday could be one of the hottest days in some of the lower valleys as the thermal ridge sits aloft. Not that one of two degrees more is much difference to the triple digit string of days we have had in the lower desert valleys.
Will see temps fall into the upper 40s in the some of the cooler locales in the MN trees as dewpoints are in the upper 40s and low 50s. North to northwest flow aloft will continue as upper ridging builds to the west of our area. The upper level low. will fill a bit as the upper level ridge over the intermountain west begins to build.
305 PM MDT Sun Aug 2 2020 Low levels remain generally capped across our region due to brisk easterly low level flow under a dominant upper ridge.
/issued 239 PM CDT Sun Aug 2 2020/ (Today and Tonight) Still expecting convection to develop across the higher terrain to our northwest this afternoon and evening, with this activity moving southeast in northwest flow aloft overnight. Temperatures will be cooler behind the front, with highs in the lower to mid 90s across the Big Country and in the upper 90s elsewhere. Lows tonight will be in the lower 70s. (Monday Night through Sunday) Hot and dry conditions are forecast across West Central Texas through this weekend, as an upper level ridge builds across the area. No rain is forecast through Sunday as the upper level ridge remains entrenched across the region.
The swirl of low pressure seen over central MO will make its way toward and ultimately across the PAH FA during the next 24 to 48 hours. Showers and some thunder here and there will be assisted diurnally with heating, but the low's energy alone/presence will keep the pop going thru the night as well, as it translates west to east across the area tonight and into/thru the day tmrw. Another convective flare-up along/east of the best boundary layer moisture axis can be expected again tmrw pm with heating, as a 2ndary axis of within trof energy rounds the base of the mean long wave late in the day. Pops ultimately wane at night (Mon night) with loss of diurnal assistance and the eventual eastward departure of the trof energy.
A few thunderstorms tried to move southeast of the Little Belt mountains this evening, but rapidly fell apart as they came off the higher terrain. Smoke from the fire will work into the lower elevations of SC MT overnight, so added mention into the forecast. Chambers Low levels remain generally capped across our region due to brisk easterly low level flow under a dominant upper ridge.
High pressure over the Desert Southwest will give way over the next 24 hours to the trough of low pressure off the West Coast.
/Issued 322 PM EDT Sun Aug 2 2020/ A broad upper trough extending from the Great Lakes to the Gulf will persist through the short term. Increased cloud cover and convection on Monday will keep temperatures notably cooler over much of northern and eastern Georgia. being the farthest from the storm's influence can expect to warm back into the low mid 90s.
An upper trough will move inland this evening, resulting in some light rain along the coast and over the Olympic Peninsula this evening and tonight. This prospect for rain will spread further inland Monday as the trough crosses the area.
Quiet pattern continues across interior NorCal as the region remains sandwiched between the southwest ridge and a trough along the PacNW. Daytime temperatures on Monday will trend a degree or two cooler from today's highs. The upper trough is still slated to move through NorCal heading into mid-week, resulting in a cooling trend and increased onshore flow.
97 Today is the last day for fair weather as the upper ridge breaks down and a trough from the west moves into the area on Monday. A couple CAMS models indicate the possibility of a convective shower late this evening ahead of the main trough. Gusty winds today may continue after dark tonight as the low level jet and the diurnal inversion strengthens. Instability associated with the trough will increase on Monday. Further monitoring of the low level moisture and model updates will be necessary for location, timing, and total QPF. Once convective inhibition lifts, thunderstorms may develop over higher terrain of central Montana during the early afternoon and move eastward with the highest chances of convective activity across the southern portions of the CWA.
Currently there is high pressure at H5 over AZ, NV, UT, southern CA and far west NM. A positively tilted trough axis expands from eastern TX all the way up to the Hudson Bay. Winds at the surface have been out of the northeast to east helping to bring surface moisture up into the higher terrain. With freezing/melting levels around 10,000 feet, one inch hail making it to the ground will most likely be an isolated event if a storm manages to produce severe hail.
738 PM CDT Sun Aug 2 2020 We've worked our way to the west side of a positively tilted h5 trough that extends from Hudson Bay southwest into east TX. It will be a little warmer in MN, so STC and MSP lows look very safe both mornings. Given the cool morning temperatures expected, anywhere near a warmer body of water will see fog develop both nights, but dryness of the atmosphere looks to keep any widespread fog from occurring.
Winds will be much calmer tonight, thanks to a slackening surface pressure gradient as an area of high pressure builds in. Some of the traditionally cool spots in our area my even see lows in the lower 40s! Monday looks to continue the calm trend, despite an upper-level low that will dive southward from Hudson Bay, which may graze the eastern reaches of our region. Monday's highs will warm up to the lower to middle 70s. Lows Monday night will be in the lower to middle 40s once again.
Hot weather is ending as a Pacific cold front approaches. Monday will be breezy and cooler, i.
With upper level trough moving east to the forecast area keeping mainly a dry northwest flow aloft, expecting mainly VFR conditions to prevail into Monday. /issued 335 PM CDT Sun Aug 2 2020/ Latest sfc analysis shows a rather diffuse front lying along the coast this afternoon, while high pressure remains centered over the cntl/wrn Gulf. Water vapor imagery shows mid/upper-level trof axis in place just west of the forecast area.
The surface cold front/wind shift line has passed through much of the CWA associated with a line of scattered showers and thunderstorms. Drier and cooler air was filtering in behind the front, but a deck of low clouds further north is poised to drop south over the area. Spotty diurnally enhanced convection will fade later this evening as the cold front continues to progress southeastward. Cooler and drier air filtering into the area will help push lows into the 50s in most areas overnight. 2) Warmer temperatures return for the weekend, along with chances of precipitation.
High pressure remains sandwiched over the region between two frontal boundaries.
620 PM CDT Sun Aug 2 2020 A cold front is moving southern Iowa and west central Illinois this afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms have formed ahead of the front, and also further south over the Ozarks in response to a lobe of vorticity moving around the base of the upper level long wave trough as well as low level moisture convergence/warm advection ahead of the front. The front will continue to move southeast tonight into Monday, but since the upper level support for the front is the nearly stationary long wave trough aloft, it's going to take its time.
/issued 204 PM CDT Sun Aug 2 2020/ Another unseasonably warm day is expected today, with temperatures this afternoon expected to top out close to yesterday, with highs ranging from the middle 90s to around 100 degrees for most (cooler in the mountains, hotter through the Rio Grande Valley). There remains a decent spread on model guidance for afternoon temperatures Monday, but have continued to trend warmer given latest trends and maintained above normal temperatures for Monday afternoon in the mid 90s to lower 100s. Rain chances Monday afternoon and evening will generally be confined to the higher terrain, though any lingering boundaries from prior convection may act as a focus for diurnally driven storms elsewhere.
Strong high pressure aloft centered over the interior west will maintain hot and dry conditions through Monday.
Westerly flow will establish Monday and continue through mid-week with high pressure ridge axis to the south of the area.
It appears the instability axis is farther north than anticipated and with the noted lift ahead of the trough, added pops farther north and kept it in most of the overnight. Not really expecting anything severe but some of the storms may produce some gusty winds or small hail due to temperature trough approaching. Low-level thicknesses should increase enough tomorrow afternoon to allow high temps to generally reach the low to mid 90s.
Deitsch A cold front is moving southern Iowa and west central Illinois this afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms have formed ahead of the front, and also further south over the Ozarks in response to a lobe of vorticity moving around the base of the upper level long wave trough as well as low level moisture convergence/warm advection ahead of the front. The front will continue to move southeast tonight into Monday, but since the upper level support for the front is the nearly stationary long wave trough aloft, it's going to take its time.
/GG/ As that cold front slowly edges through southeastern MS and towards the coast, drier air is settling in across the region. the mid level stream of clouds over the region will keep the overnight lows from getting out of the low 70s south of I-20 and in the Delta in most locations. Given the drop in the dewpoints today, there is little in the high res models that is coming back with a strong significant fog signal.
Upper trough will sneak eastward overnight, and with the tropical storm working its way up the eastern coast, chances for showers will increase in the northwest and eastern zones by late morning and spread across the area during the afternoon. High pressure will provide VFR with light south winds through this evening.
the cold front that had moved through Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas during the day was positioned just east of the CWA.
311 PM MDT Sun Aug 2 2020 Today is the last day for fair weather as the upper ridge breaks down and a trough from the west moves into the area on Monday. A couple CAMS models indicate the possibility of a convective shower late this evening ahead of the main trough. Gusty winds today may continue after dark tonight as the low level jet and the diurnal inversion strengthens. Instability associated with the trough will increase on Monday. Further monitoring of the low level moisture and model updates will be necessary for location, timing, and total QPF. Once convective inhibition lifts, thunderstorms may develop over higher terrain of central Montana during the early afternoon and move eastward with the highest chances of convective activity across the southern portions of the CWA.
High pressure building in keeping most thunderstorm activity at a minimum and light onshore flow. 35 Daytime heating, higher moisture levels, a stronger spoke of vorticity passing across the back side of the mid level trof, and outflow/seabreeze interactions led to higher precip coverage and stronger storms than earlier anticipated.
Though the front and the more moist airmass are now pushing out of the area, an anomalously deep upper trough remains over the Mississippi Valley. This will help kick off mainly diurnal isolated convection today, with the greatest odds up in the Delta where somewhat better instability and greater deep layer moisture will exist under the upper trough axis.
Another cool day with chances for showers or a thunderstorm is expected today as a weak area of low pressure and an accompanying cold front cross Indiana. High pressure is expected to build across Indiana tonight. Surface analysis early this morning shows a weak cold front stretching from Lower Michigan. water vapor showed a large trough in place across the Great Lakes to the Mississippi delta. Water Vapor showed strong subsidence behind the trough axis. The GFS and NAM finally suggest the upper trough axis to our west will progress east of Indiana by late today. This will be aided by the previously mentioned cold front that is expected to push across Indiana this afternoon. GFS and NAM shows the large trough axis pushing east of Indiana tonight. as deep low pressure remains aloft over Ontario.
230 AM MDT Mon Aug 3 2020 Current surface analysis shows nearly stationary frontal boundary still west and southwest of the area, with high pressure centered over eastern ND. Upper level analysis shows ridge axis centered over the northern Rockies, with a trough along the Pacific NW coast. Skies are clear to partly cloudy with temps mostly in the mid 50s to mid 60s, cooler over the higher Black Hills and some valley locations on the plains. Today will be a bit warmer than yesterday, but still near to slightly below average, with highs in the upper 70s and 80s.
Early this morning, an upper ridge axis was placed over southern Saskatchewan, with northwest flow over the Northern Plains. A deep trough was located over the eastern half of CONUS, with low- amplitude troughing over the northwest. At the surface, high pressure was centered over eastern North Dakota, with a few high clouds streaming over western North Dakota from an impulse moving through the upper flow.
245 AM CDT Mon Aug 3 2020 The next 48 hours will be dry with light winds and temperatures slightly cooler than the seasonal average for early August.
As the aforementioned high pressure continues to slide southwards overnight, surface winds will advect cooler and drier air into the region.
350 AM CDT Mon Aug 3 2020 High pressure and northwest flow dominate the next 3 days bringing unseasonably cool but welcome conditions for the area.
Aloft the upper level ridge extended from the desert southwest into the northern Rockies with a trough from Hudson Bay into the lower Mississippi River Valley.
Today otherwise will be slightly cooler with a rain-cooled start to the day and expected to warm only to around normal most areas. Upstream, we are expecting additional thunderstorm development over the higher terrain of northeast New Mexico and southern Colorado this afternoon, with storms and outflows tending south-southeast through the New Mexico highlands into the early evening.
134 AM EDT Mon Aug 3 2020 Weak high pressure will quickly slide across the region overnight. A cold front will approach from the west on Monday and cross the area Monday night. High pressure will then build in for mid week. However, suppose it will be tough to rule out a few showers through the night and especially across our far west late tonight as the upper level trough axis continues to push east toward our area. Overnight lows will be in the lower to mid 60s. Energy moving through a mid level trough axis to our west will push into the region on Monday. This will also cause a weak cold front to approach the area. Temperatures will range from the upper 70s to mid 80s on Monday with lows back into the lower to mid 60s.
Mid level energy within the amplified 500mb trough pivots through the region today.
1139 PM CDT Sun Aug 2 2020 Isolated convection has dissipated across NE TX attm and while we cannot rule out some redevelopment during the overnight hours along and in the wake of a slow moving cold front, chances are very limited and will therefore not be retained in the 06z TAF package. After sunrise, will continue to watch the cold front move south and east through the remainder of our terminal airspace.
1042 PM CDT Sun Aug 2 2020 First things first, isolated light showers clearly associated with the coldest air aloft this afternoon in parts of west central and southwest MN toward the Highway 14 corridor in SD will not have much more time as diurnal support wanes toward evening. A smattering of models suggest that could bubble up a couple of light showers or sprinkles ahead of the ridge axis toward Highway 60 and east, but given that temps aloft will be warming somewhat and flow much less cyclonic, will keep it at a decent cumulus field.
The broad upper trough west of the area will slowly move eastward through the period with the base of the trough over the area during the afternoon. This will send a weak cold front through the area during the afternoon with drier air moving in from the northwest. Temperatures remain hot with highs in the low to mid 90s, although with lower humidity. Lows will fall into the low 70s inland to mid and upper 70s along the coast.