Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
421 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION AND WILL PUSH OFFSHORE THIS EVENING.
TO THE WEST A WELL DEFINED MID TO UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE CENTRAL U. WHICH HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY EAST IN THE PAST 24 HOURS WHICH IS EVIDENT IN THE LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SHOWING A NOSE OF WARMER/DRYER AIR GENERALLY BETWEEN 700 AND 500 MB PUSHING IN FROM THE WEST. AS FOR TEMPS WILL CONTINUE LEAN TOWARDS THE WARMER MAV/ECS THROUGH FRI AFT DUE TO MORE STABLE AIR ALOFT MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. LOWS TONIGHT WILL FALL TO THE LOWER 70S FOR MOST INLAND AREAS AND THE MIDDLE 70S CLOSER TO THE COAST.
EXPECTED TO BE HIGHEST OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS TO THE EAST AND IN THE OHIO VALLEY. THE GREAT LAKES TO THE MID ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT WEAKNESSES IN THE 500MB RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN PARKED OVER THE AREA. STAGNANT PATTERN THIS WEEKEND AMID UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE E CONUS.
DEW POINTS ONCE AGAIN HAVE MIXED DOWN INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S WHILE EARLY AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE LOWER 90S PRODUCING HEAT INDEX VALUES MOSTLY IN THE MIDDLE 90S. EXCEPT FOR THE NCEP WRF-NMM, MOST OF THE HIGH RES MODELS SUGGEST THE BULK OF THE CONVECTION WILL STAY NORTH OF THE AREA THIS EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING TOWARDS MIDNIGHT, SO WILL NOT ADD ANY MENTION ACROSS OUR NORTH AND NORTHEAST AT THIS TIME.
330 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND DRIFT SOUTHWEST AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER WEST TEXAS SHIFTS SLIGHTLY EASTWARD INTO THE WEEKEND.
A large upper level ridge over the central U. The upper ridge will remain in place through Sat as a high amplitude pattern remains in place with a strong storm system along the west coast.
OVER THE WEEKEND, A SFC/8H ANTICYCLONE WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE MIDDLE AND LOWER OHIO VALLEY. THERE WILL ALSO BE A CONTINUED PRESENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE CAROLINA COASTLINE WITH A FEW SPOKES OF VORTICITY CIRCULATING ON ITS NORTHERN QUADRANT.
THE WEAK 500MB LOW/INVERTED TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE WEST AND SOUTHWEST INTO EASTERN MEXICO TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE 500MB RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES.
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGE SHOWS THE UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR NORTHWEST WASHINGTON. FRIDAY WILL BE THE MOST ACTIVE DAY IN THE PERIOD AS THE UPPER LOW AND COLD AIR ALOFT MOVES OVERHEAD WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY FOR MANY WESTSIDE VALLEY LOCATIONS WILL BARELY GET INTO THE LOWER 70S WHICH WILL BE THE COOLEST AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WE HAVE SEEN IN QUITE SOME TIME. THE MODELS SHOW THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY MOVING EAST OF THE CASCADES FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS ALONG WITH A COOL AIR MASS ALOFT AND SURFACE COULD RESULT IN A RAIN/WET SNOW MIX OR JUST WET SNOW OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN EASTERN KLAMATH AND LAKE COUNTY.
SUBJECTIVE 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES BROAD UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL US. WITH DIGGING UPPER LOW IN THE WEST. THERMAL RIDGE AT 850MB WAS FIRMLY LOCKED OVER THE CENTRAL TO HIGH PLAINS AND CENTRAL ROCKIES. WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES LOOMING IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
1243 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015 SURFACE MAP EARLY THIS MORNING HAS A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN MN EASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN WI. THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STAY PUT WHILE A MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND PUSH OF MID-LEVEL PV-ADVECTION DRIFTS SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL WI BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND FORCING FROM MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO FIRE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. LINGERING ISOLATED STORMS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS //MAINLY EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER// AS THAT MID-LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. KEPT A SMALL-END CHANCE IN FOR EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER IN THE AFTERNOON AS THERE WILL STILL BE SOME WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND TROUGHINESS ALOFT WITH FAIRLY STEEP LAPSE RATES.
THE BACK EDGE OF PRECIPITATION IS VERY CLOSE TO A WELL DEFINED COLD FRONT. /ISSUED 645 PM CST SUN DEC 13 2015/ RAIN WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD TODAY AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH ARKANSAS FROM THE PLAINS.
THE LOW LEVELS WILL BE LAST TO DRY OUT AND MAY SUPPORT A FEW FLURRIES OR SPRINKLES. MIN TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING DUE TO LINGERING CLOUDS.
1112 AM CST SUN DEC 13 2015 A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR TULSA OKLAHOMA. A TRAILING COLD FRONT EXTENDS SOUTHWARD FROM THE LOW. THE LOW IS IN THE PROCESS OF BECOMING OCCLUDED. STRONG GRADIENT WINDS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE ENTIRE MIDSOUTH AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. THE AIRMASS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IS PACIFIC IN NATURE.
The strongest winds should happen right along and out ahead of the main band of showers and cold front that will move across the area.
1142 AM CST SUN DEC 13 2015 /18Z TAFS/ MOST OF THE RAIN HAS MOVED HAS MOVED EAST OF THE MAJOR AIRPORTS THIS MORNING ALTHOUGH SOME SPOTTY VERY LIGHT RAIN MAY PERSIST FOR ANOTHER SEVERAL HOURS AS THE MAIN UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO CROSS THE REGION. THE CORE OF THE UPPER LOW IS VERY COLD AND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT WILL KEEP SCT/BKN CLOUDS IN FOR MOST OF THE REST OF THE DAY ALTHOUGH CLEARING SHOULD TAKE PLACE BY THIS EVENING. THE HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR TODAY HAS ALREADY BEEN ACHIEVED. AS DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE LIMITED TO THE LOWER 60S. THE UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST AND BRING THIS RAIN TO AN END.
COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH EASTERN TEXAS AND INTO LOUISIANA AS OF NOON. THE LOW LEVEL JET AT 925MB IS ALREADY APPROACHING 40 KNOTS ACROSS OUR WESTERN AND NORTHWEST COUNTIES AT THIS HOUR. THE LOW LEVEL JET IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE CLOSE TO 60 KNOTS JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT LATE THIS EVENING AND AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. IFR CIGS WILL MOVE INTO ALABAMA AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE STATE OVERNIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD RAINS. A LINE OF SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL PASS THROUGH CENTRAL ALABAMA TONIGHT NEAR A COLD FRONT.
WE DID ISSUE A BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT EARLIER THIS MORNING TO COVER THE HIGH SURF/TIDES/RIP CURRENTS.
GUSTY COLD FRONT MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE MID WEEK. A STRONG COLD FRONT LATE IN THE WEEK. DEEPER SHELTERED VALLEYS GETTING COOLER THAN FORECAST ON THIS LONG DEC PREDAWN IN WEST VIRGINIA.
348 PM CST SUN DEC 13 2015 (Tonight and Monday) The upper level low that brought thunderstorms to the area last night and windy conditions today is in the eastern TX panhandle this afternoon, and will move northeast into the Great Lakes region by Monday afternoon. While there is some cloud cover wrapping around the low this afternoon and evening into our CWA, these clouds are expected to clear out by midnight tonight. Winds will also be fairly light, which with the drier, cooler air moving in should allow for good cooling in valley areas. Lows will mainly be in the mid to upper 30s, but a few locations could see lows near freezing in valley areas.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE WEATHER THROUGH TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY.
SKIES REMAIN CLOUDY AS REGION LIES NORTH OF CUTOFF UPPER LOW CURRENTLY MOVING SLOWLY EASTWARD THRU THE TX PANHANDLE. THIS SYSTEM HAS NOT BROUGHT THE EXPECTED AMOUNT OF SNOW AS FORECAST IN OUR ADVISORY/WARNING AREAS DUE TO A COMBINATION OF EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER LOW. THIS HAS KEPT THE FOCUS FOR PRECIP AROUND/NEAR THE LOW CIRCULATION. MODELS STILL DO LIFT UPPER LOW INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN PORTIONS OF KANSAS. PROVIDING SUNNY CONDITIONS OVER THE REGION WITH A LEE-SIDE TROUGH SETTING UP TO OUR WEST THRU THE DAY. AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST. WITH SURFACE/MID-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING OVER THE REGION MONDAY.
TYPICALLY HEAVY SNOW EVENTS OCCUR NEAR THIS LOW TRACK. SOME RAIN SHOWERS MAY FOR UNDERNEATH TO MID/UPPER LOW THIS AFTERNOON AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF OKLAHOMA. A SHARP COLD FRONT EXTENDED THROUGH THE CENTER OF OKLAHOMA. SEPARATING MILD AND HUMID AIR TO THE EAST FROM MUCH COOLER AIR TO THE WEST. THE COOLER AIR WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REST OF OKLAHOMA DURING THE DAY TODAY.
WINTER STORM IN PROGRESS ACROSS THE COMBINED PANHANDLE REGION AS AN UPPER LOW BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. GIVEN THE ORIENTATION OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO NEAR FREEZING ACROSS THE ENTIRE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES. A SHORT WAVE RIDGE WILL ENTER THE REGION ON MONDAY AND INDUCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LEE SIDE TROUGH IN EASTERN NEW MEXICO. HELPING BRING IN WARMER AIR INTO THE REGION. AS THE NEXT UPPER LOW SLIDES JUST TO OUR NORTH.
HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THIS MORNING. WITH A STRONG LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER OK/KS. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS STRENGTHENING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
The surface reflection is expected to be pulled underneath the upper low as the system becomes vertically stacked. The associated cold front will reach our Alabama and Florida Panhandle counties by morning, but little to no rain is expected overnight.
1009 AM MST SUN DEC 13 2015 STILL SEEING QUITE A BIT OF MOISTURE ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO WHICH IS WRAPPING AROUND THE UPPER LOW OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. INCREASING MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE WILL SPREAD INTO THE CWA FROM THE NORTH AND WEST AS A SHORT WAVE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE STATE. THE MDLS DO HINT AT SOME PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING AS THE LOW CLOUD COVER BREAKS UP. NEXT SYSTEM WL NOT IMPACT THE REGION UNTIL MONDAY SO WL HOLD OFF INTRODUCING ANY POPS TO THE HIGH COUNTRY TONIGHT. WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT WITH A WEAKER MID LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE INCOMING RIDGE. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER NEVADA MONDAY MORNING WILL MOVE EAST INTO UTAH DURING THE DAY AND STRENGTHEN INTO A CLOSED LOW.
A COLD FRONT STRETCHES SOUTH FROM THIS LOW THROUGH EASTERN TEXAS. AN AREA OF SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE LOW OVER NE MISSOURI INTO INDIANA AND ILLINOIS. THE TENNESSEE VALLEY IS CAUGHT IN BETWEEN THIS LOW AND A STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CAROLINAS. THIS WILL ONLY ALLOW WIND GUSTS TO TAP INTO WINDS JUST ALOFT AROUND 40 MPH UNTIL THE SURFACE TEMPERATURE REACHES THE LOW 70S. SSW WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE CLOSE TO 17KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS THIS EVENING AHEAD OF AN ONCOMING COLD FRONT.
246 PM MST SUN DEC 13 2015 DEEP CLOSED LOW ACROSS TEXAS PANHANDLE WITH NORTHEAST FLOW ALOFT. THE UPPER LOW OVER UTAH WILL PUSH STRONG SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ALOFT OVER THE AREA AND INCREASE THE QG LIFT ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW SNOW TO INCREASE OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY.
Record warmth is ensconced across the area with deep upper low over Sooner State with highly anomalous wind fields. Lots of PIREPS for moderate mid and upper level chop and wind field will be on the increase as trough and upper jet kick out. Like the high res NMM of upper trough swinging thru with isol to sct shra from 18-00z Monday too.
Tonight a weakening low pressure system currently near Vancouver Isle will migrate over the region and trigger snow showers over and near the eastern TAF sites with at least occasional IFR cigs in -SHSN after 06Z.
ADVANCING CONVECTIVE AREA IN THE FACE OF THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD HAS PRODUCED STRONG CONVERGENCE RESULTING IN LOCALIZED DAMAGING WINDS OVER N LA EARLIER.
SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SHOWING RAPID CLEARING OVER THE WESTERN ZONES OF THE FORECAST AREA AS THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWEEPS INTO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS FROM THE WEST. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE FROM WEST TO EAST AS MUCH DRIER MID-LEVEL AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BRING TEMPS UP A FAIR AMOUNT ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN AND HAVE TRENDED TOWARD WARMER MAV GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS.
GENERALLY EXPECT THE LOWEST CEILINGS. ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND THE HIGHEST CEILINGS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. TYPICALLY HEAVY SNOW EVENTS OCCUR NEAR THIS LOW TRACK. SOME RAIN SHOWERS MAY FOR UNDERNEATH TO MID/UPPER LOW THIS AFTERNOON AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF OKLAHOMA. A SHARP COLD FRONT EXTENDED THROUGH THE CENTER OF OKLAHOMA. SEPARATING MILD AND HUMID AIR TO THE EAST FROM MUCH COOLER AIR TO THE WEST. THE COOLER AIR WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REST OF OKLAHOMA DURING THE DAY TODAY.
A COLD FRONT STRETCHES SOUTH FROM THIS LOW THROUGH EASTERN TEXAS. AN AREA OF SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE LOW OVER NE MISSOURI INTO INDIANA AND ILLINOIS. THE TENNESSEE VALLEY IS CAUGHT IN BETWEEN THIS LOW AND A STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CAROLINAS. THIS WILL ONLY ALLOW WIND GUSTS TO TAP INTO WINDS JUST ALOFT AROUND 40 MPH UNTIL THE SURFACE TEMPERATURE REACHES THE LOW 70S. BUT EXPECT SOLID BAND OF +SHRA ALONG COLD FRONT TO ARRIVE AT MSL-06Z AND HSV-08Z WITH SUBSEQUENT DROPS IN BOTH CIG/VSBY.
348 PM EST SUN DEC 13 2015 AN APPROACHING WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA LATE MONDAY.
BEHIND THE WARM FRONT THAT BROUGHT THE HEAVY MOUNTAIN SNOW AND VALLEY RAIN LAST NIGHT. AND THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE IN THIS EVENING WITH MORE PCPN. AT 2 PM MST THE COLD FRONT WAS IN BAKER AND HARNEY COUNTIES IN OREGON.
221 PM CST SUN DEC 13 2015 THE UPPER LOW OVER THE TX PANHANDLE WILL PICK UP FORWARD SPEED AS THE CYCLONIC JET MAX ROTATES DOWNSTREAM OF THE SYSTEM. A SECONDARY SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS WILL LOSE SOME STEAM AS IT MOVES INTO THE AREA LATER TONIGHT AND MONDAY.
GUSTY COLD FRONT MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE MID WEEK. A STRONG COLD FRONT LATE IN THE WEEK. COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE EAST OF THE CWA AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. EVEN ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
230 PM EST SUN DEC 13 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE FAIR AND WARM WEATHER TODAY.
/ISSUED 1112 AM CST SUN DEC 13 2015/ A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR TULSA OKLAHOMA. A TRAILING COLD FRONT EXTENDS SOUTHWARD FROM THE LOW. THE LOW IS IN THE PROCESS OF BECOMING OCCLUDED. STRONG GRADIENT WINDS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE ENTIRE MIDSOUTH AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. THE AIRMASS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IS PACIFIC IN NATURE.
GUSTY COLD FRONT MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE MID WEEK. A STRONG COLD FRONT LATE IN THE WEEK. FOLLOWED BY COOLER HIGH PRESSURE. AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES. COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE EAST OF THE CWA AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. EVEN ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
405 PM EST SUN DEC 13 2015 A STORM WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY.
WITH AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING THE UPPER LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS WEEKEND/S UNSETTLED WEATHER LOCATED OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT TO SEE SCATTERED LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON HOWEVER IN RESPONSE TO THE REGION/S PROXIMITY TO THE POTENT UPPER LOW OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. A DOWNRIGHT PLEASANT DECEMBER DAY LOOKS TO BE ON TAP FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS ON MONDAY WITH DRY WEATHER IN PLACE AND HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
253 PM CST SUN DEC 13 2015 A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM NEAR SPRINGFIELD MISSOURI TO MONROE LOUISIANA. CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS MAY LINGER ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE CWA DUE TO WRAP AROUND FROM THE UPPER LOW THAT WILL BE TRACKING ACROSS MISSOURI NORTHEASTWARD TO THE GREAT LAKES.
NEXT UPPER TROUGH ALREADY DROPPING INTO THE GREAT BASIN MON. WITH CLOSED LOW DEEPENING OVER UTAH BY MON EVENING. THOUGH WINDOW FOR HEAVY SNOW IS RATHER SMALL AS UPPER LOW IS ALREADY INTO WRN CO MON NIGHT WITH FLOW BECOMING W-NW BY MIDNIGHT. UPPER LOW THEN TRACKS ACROSS COLORADO MON NIGHT INTO EARLY TUE. WON'T TAKE MUCH MORE OF SOUTHWARD SHIFT OF THE LOW TRACK TO PUT THE PALMER DIVIDE AND THE EASTERN PLAINS NORTH OF THE ARKANSAS RIVER UNDER THE GUN FOR HEAVIER SNOW AND WIND. MAIN UPPER LOW THEN LIFTS NORTHWARD INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST WED- THU. LARGE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE ROCKIES. KCOS AND KPUB WILL EXPERIENCE VFR CONDITIONS INTO MONDAY AS TRANSITORY UPPER RIDGING MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO.
337 PM EST SUN DEC 13 2015 A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT AND MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION.
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATE A DEEP CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS STILL PRESENT JUST OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST WITH HIGH HEIGHTS AND SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUING ACROSS THE AREA. A COLD FRONT IS NOW PAST THE ARKLATEX REGION AND MAKING ITS WAY TOWARDS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. DO NOT EXPECT THE ENTIRE AREA WILL REACH CRITERIA BUT THE FOCUS IS MAINLY ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN. COULD SEE A FEW GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ACROSS SOME OF THE VALLEY LOCATIONS WITH GUSTS UP TO 50-60 MPH POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. 75 INCHES WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA ALONG THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU. A VERY WEAK COLD FRONT WITH THIS SYSTEM.
SO FREEZING DRIZZLE/DRIZZLE ALSO BECOMING AN EVOLVING PROBLEM. WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION. BUT THINK CIGS WILL GO BACK DOWN TO IFR AS MAIN UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE OK PANHANDLE PULLS EAST ACROSS OK INTO ERN KS. AS THE UPPER LOW PULLS NE. WITH SOME AREAS ACTUALLY SEEING SNOW POTENTIALLY SWITCHING BACK TO DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE. WILL ONLY MENTION THE DRIZZLE NEAR KICT AS THEY REMAIN UNDER THE UPPER LOW THE LONGEST.
121 PM EST SUN DEC 13 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE FAIR AND WARM WEATHER TODAY.
Strong cold front moving through interior NorCal this morning. We'll likely see some brief very heavy rain and some thunder along the cold frontal rain band.
1254 PM EST SUN DEC 13 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY.
210 PM CST SUN DEC 13 2015 COLD FRONT HAS JUST EXITED EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION. INDICATING THAT DRY SLOTTING WILL OCCUR RAPIDLY ONCE THE UPPER LOW OVER OKLAHOMA BEGINS TO MOVE TO THE NE. THESE CLEAR SKIES WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS ANOTHER CLOSED UPPER LOW.
THE BACK EDGE OF PRECIPITATION IS VERY CLOSE TO A WELL DEFINED COLD FRONT.
AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE TROF WILL BRING WIDESPREAD SNOW ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA. TO THE NORTH, A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE CANADIAN BORDER AFTER MIDNIGHT AND BRING LIGHT SNOW AND AREAS OF IFR CIGS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MONTANA, INCLUDING KCTB AND KHVR. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH A BIT AND SHIFT TO THE NORTH TONIGHT AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN MT.
318 PM EST SUN DEC 13 2015 A WARM FRONT NORTH OF LAKE ERIE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE LOCAL AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.
INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AS AN UPPER TROF INTENSIFIES OVER THE WEST COAST. AS THE TROF MOVES EAST, SNOW WILL DEVELOP AFTER 21Z OVER SOUTHWEST MONTANA AND MOVE NORTH AND EAST OVERNIGHT. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH A BIT AND SHIFT TO THE NORTH TONIGHT AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN MT.
BELIEVE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL FORM ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA AS THE MID/UPPER LOW MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. NEAR AND JUST NORTH OF THE MID/UPPER LOW TRACK.
HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THIS MORNING. WITH A STRONG LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER OK/KS.
Precip chances pick up significantly tonight as short range models indicate the strong closed off upper level low lifting northeast into eastern Kansas. The highest potential snow accumulations are expected upward of 6-9 inches in a small confined band with lesser amounts elsewhere, especially in west central, extreme southwest, and in south central Kansas. Depending on where the higher snow accumulations occur tonight, the highs on Monday could struggle to climb out of the 30s(F) where the snow field sets up to the 40s(F) elsewhere. The lower 50s(F) could be possible in south central Kansas if cloud cover clears up in time. Atmosphere will warm significantly, but lowered high temperatures several degrees, mainly to the lower 40s, in anticipation of a melting snowpack.
303 PM EST SUN DEC 13 2015 THE WEAK LOW-LEVEL TROUGH THAT WAS OVER THE BAHAMAS YESTERDAY HAS BEEN MOVING THROUGH THE KEYS TODAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING RAIN MONDAY BUT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL UNTIL THE END OF THE WEEK. THE MODELS DO CLEAR OUT THE LOW DECK BY AFTERNOON. AS THE COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO APPROACH AFTER SUNRISE TOMORROW. FOCUS WILL TURN TO A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL SWING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. WITH EACH MODEL RUN THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW LEVEL JET WEAKENS.
355 PM EST SUN DEC 13 2015 UPPER LOW OVER DRIFTING WSW OVER EASTERN CUBA CONTINUES TO WEAKEN WITH TIME.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AFTER 00Z AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
359 PM EST SUN DEC 13 2015 AVIATION SECTIONS UPDATED A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MID WEEK WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND COOLER WEATHER WILL ACCOMPANY IT. AND WILL TAPER POPS THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS THE LOW MOVES FURTHER AWAY.
WILL WARM TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER 70S FOR MOST OF MID TN. 12Z TAFS VERY LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED TO THE RECENT PATTERN AS DRY AIR AND HIGH PRESSURE HOLD STEADY ACROSS THE REGION.
100 PM EDT TUE OCT 20 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY TODAY. THE FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST AS A WARM FRONT WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES.
1257 PM EDT TUE OCT 20 2015 HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH MID WEEK.
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CAROLINAS WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TODAY.
DRY AND WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN US WILL FORM INTO A CUTOFF LOW OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TODAY. AS THE LOW MOVES EAST INTO ARIZONA AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA. THE COMBINATION OF THE OFFSHORE FLOW AND THE UPPER RIDGE WILL RESULT IN 5 TO 10 DEGREES OF WARMING TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN LATE IN THE WEEK AND TEMPERATURES WILL LEVEL OFF OR COOL A LITTLE. KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH. GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFF THE COAST OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA.
1016 AM CDT TUE OCT 20 2015 WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S TO THE LOWER 70S STILL LOOK GOOD FOR THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME CIRRUS CLOUDS. SOUTH AND THEN WESTERLY BY THE LATE AFTERNOON FOR THE WESTERN CWA AND OVERNIGHT IN THE EAST AS A 1024MB HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
HIGH PRESSURE AND CLEAR SKIES WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE DAY. CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 69 44 74 48 / 0 0 0 0 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 68 42 72 46 / 0 0 0 0 OAK RIDGE, TN 68 41 73 46 / 0 0 0 0 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 67 38 72 42 / 0 0 0 0.
TO RAISE TEMPERATURES RIDGING CONTINUES TO EXTEND SOUTHWEST INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY FROM AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE WEST VIRGINIA AREA AND THE CAROLINAS. THE HIGH HAS PUSHED FAR ENOUGH EAST TO BRING SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS BACK INTO OUR FORECAST. THIS IS ADVECTING WARMER AND SLIGHTLY MORE MOIST AIR INTO NORTHERN ALABAMA/SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN. THE STRONG CAP PROVIDED BY THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND THE LIGHT FLOW EXPECTED IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD KEEP DEWPOINTS FROM MIXING OUT THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S IN MOST LOCATIONS.
745 AM CDT TUE OCT 20 2015 EARLY THIS MORNING SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS RETURNING MORE GULF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION AND MAY PROVIDE FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS AND MIST/BR MAINLY OVER PARTS OF DEEP EAST TEXAS AND EAST TEXAS. NOT CONFIDENT ABOUT THE LOWER CONDITIONS ACROSS REMAINING TERMINALS OF NORTH LOUISIANA AND SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS.
743 AM EDT TUE OCT 20 2015 AVIATION LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN GREAT LAKES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN AT TIMES WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE COMING TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.