Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
High pressure will predominate across the Desert Southwest, resulting in above normal temperatures through the weekend. Slightly cooler conditions are possible late in the week and into the weekend as a low pressure system passes by to the north. Today's early afternoon visible satellite analysis looks nearly identical to yesterday's with clear skies across most of Arizona minus a few small cumulus fields over the highest peaks in northern and eastern Arizona. The White Mountains area might see an isolated thunderstorm or two later this week but overall moisture is severely lacking to expect any storms in the lower desert. Through this week, a ridge of high pressure will strengthen over the West creating a rather stagnant forecast.
Troughing continues to slowly amplify over the central US this afternoon, as several smaller disturbances move through the large scale trough. The main cold front which passed through northeast Kansas last night, is currently located across portions of Oklahoma and Missouri. After these storms and showers dissipate, high pressure should begin move in for the rest of the night, with CAA continuing. Mostly clear skies and light winds should allow for temperatures to drop into the low 60s for most. Light northerly winds and mostly sunny skies will continue during the day tomorrow, with highs reaching the low to mid 80s.
727 PM EDT Mon Jun 22 2020 A trough of low pressure will linger across the area through Tuesday.
This will continue overnight into Tuesday with strong ridge over the Pacific northwest.
921 PM EDT Mon Jun 22 2020 A trough of low pressure will linger across the area through Tuesday.
A weak associated cold front will slide into the area and stall.
High pressure will expand and strengthen across the western states through midweek.
This is normal for this time of year and the current split-ridge pattern. A fractured western Atlantic ridge axis stretches west across Florida. The upper level flow is rather nebulous across the Keys, although a trough axis is scouring lower heights across the western Gulf of Mexico. The forecast calls for only slight rain chances overnight with lows in the lower 80s.
411 PM CDT Mon Jun 22 2020 A cold front moving through central Illinois this evening will produce scattered showers and thunderstorms, some possibly severe.
Dry conditions into Tuesday with an upper ridge over the area.
912 PM CDT Mon Jun 22 2020 Showers will taper off and come to an end from west to east tonight as a cold front passes through central Illinois. A cold front currently approaching the Illinois River will settle southward to the Ohio River by dawn Tuesday. A diurnal heating boundary was located nearly parallel to the Illinois River Valley, an old outflow boundary was in central Illinois from roughly Taylorville to just east of Bloomington, and a cold front extended from extreme eastern IA into central MO. However, with the trough axis lingering across east central IL will maintain a slight chance for showers Tuesday afternoon.
746 PM EDT Mon Jun 22 2020 Upper level ridge over the region will move offshore with isolated convection expected. The upper trough will extend through the Great Lakes region southward into the Mississippi Valley region on Tuesday. At the surface, a cold front will be crossing the Mississippi and moving toward the TN Valley. Highs should be a couple of degrees cooler on Tuesday than on Monday with more cloud cover and storms around, in the lower 90s.
322 PM MDT Mon Jun 22 2020 Diurnally driven convection, aided by weak ascent aloft have supported isolated thunderstorms to develop across the higher terrain. Little to no precipitation is expected from the high based storms; though, gusty winds and dry thunderstorms are more of a concern than significant rainfall. Temperatures will run well above normal during the short term, with a slight increase in high temperatures Tuesday as the ridge of high pressure nudges closer to the CWA.
Expect continued quiet conditions over the next few hours before convection begins to reinitialize, likely before or around sunrise, in response to the next upper level disturbance working into the region around the periphery of a much larger upper level trof extending across much of the central and eastern U. The upper level disturbance will gradually move across east Texas through the day before beginning to pivot east around the axis of the broader trof near the coast.
302 AM EDT Tue Jun 23 2020 Upper air pattern has a 500 mb ridge in the western U. and a deep 500 mb trough across the central U. The trough axis is across the upper Great Lakes this morning and slowly moves east through 12z Thu into the lower Great Lakes.
These showers were associated with a cold front moving southeast through Iowa.
With forcing from the trough acting on a moist air mass, categorical PoPs will be forecast for the entire area this morning and into the early afternoon. Previously there had been concerns of flooding issues for this period, but that threat appears lower today as models show midlevel drying building in behind the trough axis this afternoon, and individual storms should have enough movement to limit localized rain amounts below FFG values. PoPs will be dropping off this evening behind the passage of the surface front and trough axis, with a westerly flow aloft supplying a drier air mass overnight.
High pressure continues to build over the region, resulting in temperatures 8 to 12 degrees above seasonal averages through the week.
153 AM EDT Tue Jun 23 2020 Numerous showers and thunderstorms will be found ahead of an approaching cold front on Tuesday with the risk for some of the storms to become quite strong. it will become cooler and more comfortable for much of the remainder of the work week. Numerous showers and thunderstorms will blossom ahead of a cold front on Tuesday. Convection will quickly drop off in the wake of the cold front Tuesday evening.
H5/H7 flow continues out of the north to northwest, influenced by a rather strong upper low situated well to our east. Instability will build through the late morning and early afternoon; however, the low to mid level shear profile is only conditionally supportive of stronger storms.
219 AM MDT Tue Jun 23 2020 Upper level analysis shows northwest flow with gradually rising heights across the northern Plains with a ridge axis centered from central Alberta/Saskatchewan SD into ID/OR.
345 AM CDT Tue Jun 23 2020 Northwesterly flow aloft will persist over the northern/central Plains as an amplified ridge remains in place across the western CONUS. A departing upper trough axis lingers across the Great Lakes region and will eventually evolve into a large closed low across southern Ontario by mid-week.
314 AM EDT Tue Jun 23 2020 A large ridge of high pressure will continue to produce hot weather inland through midweek, with the coastal plain cooled by onshore flow.
Scattered thunderstorms will then develop, with the highest chances over the interior around KLAL, and across southwest Florida around KPGD, KFMY, and KRSW. On Tuesday the mid/upper level trough over the Mississippi Valley will continue to drift east helping to bring some of the deeper moisture further north across most of the area, but the southwest to west flow will persist so the best chances of rain will continue to be over the interior and southwest parts of the forecast area. High pressure will remain over the region through the week, with light winds turning onshore with the sea breeze each afternoon.
Cloud cover this morning will linger for awhile, with the cooler air mass behind the MCS keeping afternoon highs in the upper 80s and lower 90s for many locations.
333 AM EDT Tue Jun 23 2020 Ridging aloft will maintain warm temperatures today.
250 AM CDT Tue Jun 23 2020 The short term will be dominated by an upper level trough centered over the Great Lakes region. A secondary zone of isolated showers are possible late this afternoon and early evening as weak energy rotates down around the upper trough.
435 AM EDT Tue Jun 23 2020 A cold front will move into the Mid-Atlantic today, bringing numerous showers and thunderstorms to the area this afternoon and evening.
An upper level trough over the Midwest will shift eastward today.
A short wave trof over northern Mississippi will track slowly eastward overnight and bring increasing showers and a few thunderstorms to northwest Alabama overnight.
Otherwise, the surface subtropical ridge will remain the dominant feature controlling the weather pattern through the forecast period.
342 AM CDT Tue Jun 23 2020 Embedded mid level trough within the northwest flow continues to shift through the southern plains this morning. Broken high clouds increase from the northwest during the afternoon as highs are mostly in the low to mid 80s. A midlevel trough is progged to traverse the western high plains this evening, generating scattered storms over western Kansas.
Prevailing VFR conditions are expected to return by late afternoon and evening as a cold front exits the area. DGS Chattanooga Airport, TN 82 68 83 66 85 / 80 60 40 20 20 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 82 66 82 64 84 / 80 60 30 20 10 Oak Ridge, TN 81 64 82 63 84 / 80 60 30 10 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 81 64 79 61 80 / 80 70 40 20 10.
Overall adjusted POPs to between 60 and 80 percent and moved this higher POP east into northeastern Alabama around daybreak.
245 AM CDT Tue Jun 23 2020 Northwest flow aloft and weak high pressure at the surface will build into the region today and remain overhead tonight. Quiet and cooler air will filter into the region through the period and be most noticeable tonight.
Cold front is hard to isolate, given current convection, but models bring it through most terminals 12-18Z, w/forecast soundings suggesting brief MVFR cigs at fropa. A dryline bulge extends southeast of this mesolow into the southeastern Permian Basin, then southward into the lower Trans Pecos. It's expected that the outflow boundary will push to roughly the Pecos River valley, bringing cooler weather with it to the Permian Basin and southeastern New Mexico.
1224 AM CDT Tue Jun 23 2020 Cyclonic cold air advection over the Upper Mississippi River Valley will continue tonight and Tuesday as a deep upper-level trough axis moves slowly eastward. This feature will rotate around the western portion of the trough into central Minnesota by Tuesday morning.
Northwest flow aloft continues today with a deep upper trough just to our east. Quiet again tonight with slightly warmer overnight lows as upper level ridging begins to build over central and eastern Montana and we get some weak low level warm air advection. Current forecast lows are in the low to mid 50s, with mostly clear skies.
Cooler, drier air will arrive in central Indiana today in the wake of an earlier frontal passage.
342 AM CDT Tue Jun 23 2020 Breezy and cooler weather will be the rule across central Illinois today. 08z/3am surface analysis shows a cold front pushing across the I-57 corridor. Breezy and cooler conditions will be left in its wake, resulting in afternoon high temperatures remaining in the 70s. Upper troughing will dominate the weather across the Midwest/Ohio River Valley over the next couple of days.
Severe weather risk will once again be on the low side. Overnight lows fall back into the lower to mid 60s with partly to mostly cloudy skies.
Yesterday's cold front has pushed south into northern Arkansas and northeast Oklahoma early this morning with some lingering isolated storms along its edge. The near neutral upper trough axis extends straight north into Manitoba/Ontario this morning with several embedded waves noted in WV satellite imagery.
353 AM CDT Tue Jun 23 2020 Surface analysis early this morning shows a backdoor cold front sitting over northeastern MN into northern WI with high pressure over the northern Rockies through the northern-central Plains. Aloft, deep troughing extends from Hudson Bay through the Great Lakes and just east of the Mississippi River with longwave ridging over the western CONUS, keeping NW flow over the Dakotas into MN/WI.
This combined with the lower temperatures will limit instability with MUCAPE running 1. Upper level ridging will continue to dominate the SW U. while troughing dominates the NE U.
High pressure will continue to strengthen over the region through midweek resulting in above average temperatures, especially across the interior. Meanwhile, onshore flow will persist and maintain cooler conditions near the coast through much of the week. More significant cooling occurred in Big Sur where today's high of 66 was 17 degrees cooler than yesterday. Elsewhere, temperatures today were similar to yesterday or slightly warmer as subsidence warming increased under a building upper ridge. That upper ridge, which is currently centered along the West Coast, will continue to be our dominant weather feature through the end of the work week, maintaining warm and dry conditions for our inland areas.
Additional showers and maybe some thunderstorms are likely to form later this morning ahead of a weak cold front that will push through the area from late morning into the afternoon.
1156 PM CDT Mon Jun 22 2020 Showers will taper off and come to an end from west to east tonight as a cold front passes through central Illinois. A cold front currently approaching the Illinois River will settle southward to the Ohio River by dawn Tuesday. A diurnal heating boundary was located nearly parallel to the Illinois River Valley, an old outflow boundary was in central Illinois from roughly Taylorville to just east of Bloomington, and a cold front extended from extreme eastern IA into central MO. However, with the trough axis lingering across east central IL will maintain a slight chance for showers Tuesday afternoon.
Guidance continues to advertise a weak wave dropping down the backside of the exiting trough by mid afternoon, and with a bit of weak instability, pattern recognition would suggest a blossom of Cu and perhaps a few light showers. Otherwise, expect below normal temperatures with most locations in the lower to mid 70s.
351 AM CDT Tue Jun 23 2020 Surface analysis early this morning shows a backdoor cold front sitting over northeastern MN into northern WI with high pressure over the northern Rockies through the northern-central Plains. Aloft, deep troughing extends from Hudson Bay through the Great Lakes and just east of the Mississippi River with longwave ridging over the western CONUS, keeping NW flow over the Dakotas into MN/WI.
Current WV/IR satellite shows a well developed MCS pushing south through the high plains of TX. Upper ridge centered over the SW US will keep the southern high plains on the eastern fringe of the ridge, leading to N/NW steering pattern aloft. Another area of convective focus tomorrow will be along and west of the Davis mountains where current boundary this evening will stall along the high terrain out west. Enough orographic ascent, coupled with diurnal heating will aid in some convective potential along the ridges and neighboring Marfa Plateau. The potential for severe will be limited to pulse variety as the lack of shear remains consistent under the guise of the ridge.
1115 PM CDT Mon Jun 22 2020 Cyclonic cold air advection over the Upper Mississippi River Valley will continue tonight and Tuesday as a deep upper-level trough axis moves slowly eastward. This feature will rotate around the western portion of the trough into central Minnesota by Tuesday morning.
354 AM EDT Tue Jun 23 2020 Upper air pattern has a 500 mb ridge in the western U. and a deep 500 mb trough across the central U. The trough axis is across the upper Great Lakes this morning and slowly moves east through 12z Thu into the lower Great Lakes.
This trough remains progged to slide SE into the Srn Plains overnight, where moderate instability resides indicative of MLCapes of 2000-3000+ J/Kg, which will be maintained by a developing 25-30+kt Srly low level flow over Wrn TX and the Hill Country.
Went just a tad cooler than NBM initialization in the upper 70s to near 80 for highs. Could be some thunder creep into the south overnight tonight with the approach of a warm front.
358 AM EDT Tue Jun 23 2020 Under mostly clear to partly cloudy skies and light east to southeast winds of 5 to 10 mph, temperatures are in the lower to mid 80s with dewpoint readings in the mid to upper 70s is making for steamy conditions along the island chain.
1053 PM MDT Mon Jun 22 2020 Upper trough/Canadian cut off low is slowly pushing east, north of the Great Lakes.
Low level moisture transport will again return to western KS by this evening or tonight which will lead to renewed convection over the high plains, as a weak impulse drops SE out of the Rockies. Max temps on Wed may be a bit tricky, as widespread storms suggest temps staying in the 80s, while a less widespread storm solution may lead to temps climbing back into the lower 90s. Ketcham A return to zonal flow will lead to warmer temps for both Thu and Fri, especially for Fri, as a gradual shift to SW flow will lead to breezy SW downslope flow.
A cold front is expected to move through the state through the day, which will bring west northwesterly winds. Additional precip is expected on Tuesday along and ahead of a surface cold front.
(Today and tonight) Showers and thunderstorms continue to move east across north Texas and southern Oklahoma with additional showers and storms developing from northeast into central Oklahoma ahead of a cold front. Drier and somewhat cooler filters into the area behind the front.
532 AM MDT Tue Jun 23 2020 Eastern CONUS troughing and ridging in the West is becoming more defined today leaving us in a northwest flow pattern. With the building ridge in the West temperatures will continue an upward trend by a degree or two and forecast here remains on track.
This combined with the lower temperatures will limit instability with MUCAPE running 1.
Northwest flow aloft and weak high pressure at the surface will build into the region today and remain overhead tonight. Quiet and cooler air will filter into the region through the period and be most noticeable tonight. High pressure slowly shifts off to the east on Wednesday and Wednesday night with winds coming around to the south.
Embedded mid level trough within the northwest flow continues to shift through the southern plains this morning. Broken high clouds increase from the northwest during the afternoon as highs are mostly in the low to mid 80s. A midlevel trough is progged to traverse the western high plains this evening, generating scattered storms over western Kansas.
The low-level Atlantic ridge axis will reside over south FL for the next 24 hours. The Atlantic ridge axis is across south FL.
Skies will clear overnight, with a bit of a low level gradient coupled with a little warm advection bringing slightly warmer temperatures tonight. On Wednesday, a northwesterly flow aloft will be over the forecast area with the upper level ridge centered over the Desert Southwest. The flow aloft is fairly weak but the lower levels will be quite dry.
716 AM EDT Tue Jun 23 2020 An approaching cold front will push through central Pa late today and tonight. Early morning satellite imagery is showing fairly extensive valley fog across central Pa and low clouds over the higher terrain of northern Pa. The latest HREF and LAMP guidance both indicate the low clouds and fog will mix out by around 14Z, then focus will shift toward approaching cold front. Expect convection to weaken after sunset, but the risk of a lingering shower could persist until passage of the surface cold front, which won't arrive until late this evening over the northwest mountains and almost dawn across the southeast counties.
655 AM EDT Tue Jun 23 2020 A cold front will move into the Mid-Atlantic today, bringing numerous showers and thunderstorms to the area this afternoon and evening.
High pressure ridging will continue to dominate the weather pattern this week, bringing hot temperatures. The ridge axis shifts to the east today and Wednesday as a trough passes through the Pacific Northwest, with heights lowering a little over NorCal.
547 AM CDT Tue Jun 23 2020 Breezy and cooler weather will be the rule across central Illinois today. 08z/3am surface analysis shows a cold front pushing across the I-57 corridor. Breezy and cooler conditions will be left in its wake, resulting in afternoon high temperatures remaining in the 70s. Upper troughing will dominate the weather across the Midwest/Ohio River Valley over the next couple of days.
These showers and thunderstorms are located just ahead of a cold front analyzed from Marion, Illinois west southwest through the Poplar Bluff, Missouri.
/22/ Today and Tonight: Early morning water vapor imagery showed our region at the base of a large upper level trough around a low centered over the northern Great Lakes region.
High pressure will continue to dominate the weather pattern over the region through late week resulting in above average temperatures, especially across the interior. Meanwhile, onshore flow will persist and maintain cooler conditions near the coast with night and morning low clouds likely. Aside from the marine influences impacting the coast and adjacent coastal valleys, a ridge of high pressure centered off of the southern California coast will continue to build through mid/late week. As usual with very warm and dry conditions this time of year, fire risks will be elevated across the interior and in the higher elevations. Temperatures across the interior look to cool by the upcoming weekend as a mid/upper level trough over western Canada digs southward into the West.
These showers were associated with a cold front moving southeast through Iowa. Low temperatures on Wednesday morning will be in the lower and mid-50s. Larger scale troughing will remain in place over the forecast area on Wednesday as an upper level low continues to spin north of the Great Lakes.
618 AM CDT Tue Jun 23 2020 (Today and tonight) Showers and thunderstorms continue to move east across north Texas and southern Oklahoma with additional showers and storms developing from northeast into central Oklahoma ahead of a cold front. Drier and somewhat cooler filters into the area behind the front.
Ongoing showers will gradually shift northeast with the low this morning and exit the region by the late morning. This afternoon the upper level low will continue to swing disturbances in the way of 500mb positive vorticity advection.
450 AM MDT Tue Jun 23 2020 Upper level analysis shows northwest flow with gradually rising heights across the northern Plains with a ridge axis centered from central Alberta/Saskatchewan SD into ID/OR.
353 AM MDT Tue Jun 23 2020 Eastern CONUS troughing and ridging in the West is becoming more defined today leaving us in a northwest flow pattern. With the building ridge in the West temperatures will continue an upward trend by a degree or two and forecast here remains on track.
957 AM CDT Tue Jun 23 2020 Skies mostly clear this am as temperatures have moved into the low to mid 80s.
High pressure will predominate across the Desert Southwest, resulting in above normal temperatures into the weekend.
631 AM EDT Tue Jun 23 2020 A large ridge of high pressure will continue to produce hot weather inland through midweek, with the coastal plain cooled by onshore flow.
640 AM CDT Tue Jun 23 2020 Cyclonic flow aloft continues today with the upper level pattern slowly shifting as ridge builds over the Intermountain West. A few degrees warmer then the previous day will create slightly steeper low level lapse rates. Wednesday will see the high pressure slowly moving into MN. Drier conditions at the surface as the high moves will keep showers to our south.
Went just a tad cooler than NBM initialization in the upper 70s to near 80 for highs. Could be some thunder creep into the south overnight tonight with the approach of a warm front. Warm front moves northeast across the CWA Wednesday and Wednesday night.
Northwesterly flow aloft will persist over the northern/central Plains as an amplified ridge remains in place across the western CONUS. A departing upper trough axis lingers across the Great Lakes region and will eventually evolve into a large closed low across southern Ontario by mid-week.