Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
830 PM EDT Mon May 17 2021 A warm front combined with a weak upper-level disturbance tracking southeast from the Ohio Valley will bring light rain to much of the area tonight and Tuesday. High pressure aloft will then build westward from the western Atlantic into the eastern U. Light Rain, Drizzle, and Fog Tonight and Early Tuesday, Slowly Given Way to More Summerlike Conditions Through the As high pressure aloft anchored in the western Atlantic slowly retrogrades into the Mid-Atlantic and eastern U. region during the next several days, a warm front will lift north tonight and Tuesday. In addition, riding along the warm front will be a weak upper-level disturbance tracking southeast from the Ohio Valley.
There are some stratocumulus clouds in the lee of Mount Shasta, and some are popping over ridges as well. The upper level ridge over the area has broken down in advance of an incoming long wave trough.
A general warming trend will continue with seasonably warm temperatures ranging from lows in the low 60s coast to upper 50s across inland SE GA, to highs in the low/mid 80s inland to near 80 coast. High pressure ridge will remain to the north of the waters through the week. Easterly flow will persist with high pressure situated to the north.
Overnight lows should fall into the upper 60s, except along the coast from Port Canaveral south where a steady onshore breeze moderates temps in the low 70s. Afternoon highs in the low 80s, with mid 80s possible far inland. High pressure across the region maintains persistent east winds tonight into Tuesday afternoon.
A weak cold front has allowed the marine stratus to break up with VFR ceilings, except around Cape Blanco and further offshore. Clouds will spill over the Umpqua Divide into the Rogue Valley between 09-11z with a chance for the higher terrain to become partly obscured, but VFR ceilings will continue at Medford. There are some stratocumulus clouds in the lee of Mount Shasta, and some are popping over ridges as well. The upper level ridge over the area has broken down in advance of an incoming long wave trough.
745 PM EDT Mon May 17 2021 Much warmer air begins to build into the Ohio Valley Tuesday, with increasing warmth by midweek and beyond. Temperatures will be considerably warmer Tuesday as a midlevel ridge axis begins to retrograde west into the eastern Ohio Valley. Mainly dry conditions are expected Tuesday night as the ridge axis builds further into the area.
A slow-moving low pressure system will bring scattered showers and a few thunderstorms to the area though Tuesday. Another round of windy and cooler weather is likely later this week and into the weekend. A low pressure circulation can be seen over northeast Arizona this afternoon.
An upper low to the west is expected to pass just north of NM Tuesday, bringing a nwly wind shift and showers and thunderstorms across much of the area. An upper level low will cross the CO/NM border Tuesday through Tuesday night.
236 PM PDT Mon May 17 2021 A few storms may linger in the High Sierra this evening. Otherwise, warmer and drier conditions will be in place to start the week. More active weather with breezy winds and chances for precipitation can be expected later this week with significantly cooler temperatures. As low pressure departs the area, we have warming temperatures across the region with highs into the upper 70s and low 80s for western Nevada and 60s in the Sierra valleys.
701 PM EDT Mon May 17 2021 VFR conditions will prevail as high pressure remains positioned over region. Elongated surface ridging extending in from the mid-Atlantic states and influence from the midlevel ridge to our west has kept conditions dry and quiet locally. Highs this afternoon peak in the mid 70s away from the lakes where a southeast breeze keeps conditions a bit cooler. Lower clouds dissipate tonight with lows dipping to the lower 50s amidst the relatively dry air mass. This again leads to cooler temps downwind of the big lakes, otherwise temps look to climb a few degrees higher than today's max readings - to the upper 70s to around 80 - as 850mb temps moderate slightly.
A ridge will continue to build over the eastern United States through the end of the week, although a warm front may move north across the far western portion of the forecast area Tuesday night. The near term period will generally be quiet with warming temps as high pressure builds over the eastern US. The warm front will lift north into Indiana and possibly northwestern Ohio Tuesday evening, but most guidance has the energy and moisture associated with the front dissipating before clipping the far western counties of our CWA. Ridging will begin to build west into the Midwest by Tuesday evening, which may keep showers outside of the CWA boundaries. Warm air advection will provide warmer overnight lows in the mid 50s to near 60 degrees.
606 PM CDT Mon May 17 2021 Wet weather continues across the region tonight as the warm frontal boundary lifts through. The Low pressure core will slide northeast through Missouri overnight, into the Illinois River Valley for Tuesday.
Upper low was near the Four Corners this evening and lightning has shifted southeast and out of our CWA compared to yesterday. Latest satellite pix show a cold front in WA and OR approaching our CWA ahead of an upper trough still in the Pacific. The cold front will pass through our CWA tonight with locally breezy northwest winds but no rain. Tuesday will be breezy and 10 to 15 degrees cooler than today.
418 PM CDT Mon May 17 2021 Wet weather continues across the region tonight as the warm frontal boundary lifts through. The Low pressure core will slide northeast through Missouri overnight, into the Illinois River Valley for Tuesday.
The earlier zonal flow aloft has permutated into a shallow ridge across our longitude and broad troughing over the western Gulf of Mexico. There is some dry air through the lower to mid levels. Short Term Update - Ridging will continue to dominate Keys weather through the overnight period. A ridge over the Atlantic Coast has freshened breezes across the Keys this evening.
225 PM PDT Mon May 17 2021 Brief warming trend through Tuesday as high pressure builds. A slow moving trough will impact the region later in the week, sending afternoon high temperatures down into the mid 70s and a chance of rain and snow showers over the Sierra. Afternoon highs should rebound by the weekend as the trough slowly weakens and exits the area.
738 PM EDT Mon May 17 2021 Isolated showers dissipate this evening, then high pressure will dominate the region through the week with above average temperatures and mostly dry conditions. Skies clear tonight and high pressure/ridging settles over the region tomorrow. Forecast soundings are much more stable tomorrow afternoon, with all the instability in the low levels and a strong at around 700mb. High temperatures tomorrow will increase by a few degrees with ridging overhead and more sunshine expected.
Light rain is expected tonight as a cold front moves across the region.
Another round of windy and cooler weather is likely later this week and into the weekend. A low pressure circulation can be seen over northeast Arizona this afternoon.
/EC/ Tonight and Tuesday: As the forecast area remains fixed between troughing to our west and a building ridge to our east, weak disturbances will continue to lift northeast across the region.
643 PM EDT Mon May 17 2021 High pressure dominates through the week with minimal rain chances.
/Issued 240 PM EDT Mon May 17 2021/ High pressure aloft and at the surface will continue for the remainder of the short term period of the forecast. Isold shra/tsra possible across the higher terrain of north Georgia tomorrow afternoon, otherwise dry conditions. NListemaa In short, the upcoming week will be dry with temperatures becoming gradually warmer each day. Upper ridging remains the dominating factor through the forecast period, building overhead through late week with the axis gradually shifting westward into the Mississippi Valley through the weekend.
An H5 ridge aloft will slide eastward of the area this evening into Tuesday, with an increasing south-southwest flow aloft as a an H5 low pressure system tracks into eastern Colorado. as the low pressure system and its resultant deep convection remain largely focused over the southern and central plains states. A closed low over the south central US will be pushed northeastward by a secondary closed low coming on shore from the Pacific.
933 PM EDT Mon May 17 2021 A ridge will continue to build over the eastern United States through the end of the week, although a warm front may move north across the far western portion of the forecast area Tuesday night. The near term period will generally be quiet with warming temps as high pressure builds over the eastern US. The warm front will lift north into Indiana and possibly northwestern Ohio Tuesday evening, but most guidance has the energy and moisture associated with the front dissipating before clipping the far western counties of our CWA. Ridging will begin to build west into the Midwest by Tuesday evening, which may keep showers outside of the CWA boundaries. Warm air advection will provide warmer overnight lows in the mid 50s to near 60 degrees.
332 PM MDT Mon May 17 2021 Overview: A deamplifying upper level low, presently situated over the Desert Southwest, will slowly progress eastward across the southern Rockies tonight through Tuesday night.
Next impulse to round the base of the main upper low, situated over the Rockies, will begin to lift northeast out of NM and towards KS late tonight or early on Tue morning.
754 PM EDT Mon May 17 2021 High pressure will gradually build in from the north over the next several days.
The low-end rain chances will continue today. This flow regime will continue to help keep temperatures along the Atlantic a touch cooler with some locations along the Gulf approaching 90 degrees. A stout long-wave ridge remains entrenched over the eastern third of the United States, with low-level flow remaining mostly east/northeast. The advection of a maritime airmass will allow for seasonably cooler temperatures to be realized over the eastern half of South Florida (lower/mid 80s) while temperatures remain warm over the interior/west coast (mid/upper 80s).
Chances for precipitation, concentrated during the heat of the day, will shift west as robust H5 ridging moves east towards the forecast area.
Initially this will be fighting drier air in the low to mid levels that will delay the onset of any precip in our far southwest.
/EC/ Prior discussion below: Tonight and Tuesday: As the forecast area remains fixed between troughing to our west and a building ridge to our east, weak disturbances will continue to lift northeast across the region.
114 AM EDT Tue May 18 2021 A non-progressive pattern will feature high pressure gradually building in from the north over the next several days. No big edits for overnight updates, variable clouds as over- the-ridge moisture streams in, a few showers were off the Outer Banks over warmer Gulf Stream waters, and will remain well away from our local marine and beach zones overnight. No rainfall is expected through the period and with really no air mass change, highs will be in the lower 80s or so Tuesday with morning lows in the upper 50s.
Today Currently, mid/upper ridging is centered just east of the Mississippi River with a 60 to 80kt jet streak over Ohio into the Mid Atlantic. Heading into the daytime, the front is expected to move northward with ridging shifting eastward to be nearly overhead the Tennessee Valley. Also, as the ridge shifts further to the east, some upper divergence will be noted over northeastern Tennessee/southwestern North Carolina via ageostrophic wind vectors.
Associated with the ridge axis, was a relatively dry air mass with PWATs around 0. Then, skies will increase in cloudiness through tonight, with the weak forcing with the warm front leading to a small chance of light rain showers after midnight. High temperatures today will largely be in the upper half of the 70s to around 80F, cooler near the lakeshores. Moisture rounding the upper level ridge centered to our east will stream northward into northern Michigan.
The closed low effecting the region and bringing this rain will pass to the east by tomorrow morning with a much drier airmass moving in. Current GFS model has an omega blocking pattern setting up over the central CONUS with an upper level low coming on-board in the Pacific Northwest.
1145 PM CDT Mon May 17 2021 Wet weather continues across the region tonight as the warm frontal boundary lifts through. The Low pressure core will slide northeast through Missouri overnight, into the Illinois River Valley for Tuesday.
Forecast challenges revolve around the onset for the precipitation and clouds, which will impact the high temperatures for Tuesday. Therefore, adjusted high temperatures to account for the precipitation with cooler readings in the upper 60s to lower 70s in central and east-central WI, and warmer temperatures in the middle to upper 70s in north-central and far northeast WI.
BW Chattanooga Airport, TN 80 63 85 62 85 / 20 0 0 0 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 79 60 83 59 85 / 20 0 10 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 79 58 83 58 85 / 20 0 10 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 76 55 81 55 84 / 30 0 10 0 0.
1252 AM EDT Tue May 18 2021 High pressure will bring mostly sunny skies to the region this week.
Meanwhile a possible MCV development from the overnight convection, and short range models showing a weak warm frontal boundary lifting northward should provide opportunities for storm redevelopment later this morning.
208 AM EDT Tue May 18 2021 High pressure will bring mostly sunny skies to the region this week.
858 PM PDT Mon May 17 2021 The low pressure system responsible for the clouds and showers over the past couple of days will move out of the region tonight. Some spotty, light rain and drizzle is still possible tonight, but dry and warmer weather will develop for Tuesday and Wednesday as a weak ridge develops aloft.
303 AM EDT Tue May 18 2021 A non-progressive pattern will feature high pressure gradually building in from the north over the next several days. Weak strands of vorticity aloft atop the upper ridge will face unwelcoming circumstances, as the ridge amplifies over the region, bringing about descent of dry capping layer or air later today. Maximum temperatures today not all that different from yesterday, but Wednesday should be several degrees warmer as the upper ridge works the column and thicknesses are boosted.
With our main upper trough still to the west over New Mexico, airmass recovery should be quick in the wake of this mornings activity. Dewpoints are already back in the lower 60s off to the northwest, so after a few hours of a lull in the convection later this morning, we should see additional development again off to our west. Modest instability and a little stronger shear associated with the upper trough will support a few instances of large hail and damaging winds. Backed low level flow in the vicinity of any boundaries could also enhance the low level shear profile, so a tornado or two cannot be ruled out through this evening.
Otherwise, high pressure will ensure dry weather today; temperatures will continue to stay above the climatological average. As this progresses, building high pressure over the Middle Atlantic States will impede the approach of the next weather maker keeping a dry forecast in place through Wednesday. Light winds and clearing skies will allow for warmer temps as well. With the axis of high pressure centered over the region, temperature will further increase above average values through the remainder of the week. High pressure will maintain VFR and light wind throughout the TAF period. High pressure will maintain VFR through much of the week.
Upper ridge axis just to our west will slowly shift east into our forecast area (FA) today with some weak upper disturbances passing by mainly just to our N and NE.
227 AM CDT Tue May 18 2021 Some light returns have been observed early this morning moving northward across AL, but they are likely not reaching the ground based on a lot of dry air in the low to mid levels observed on last nights soundings from Birmingham and Nashville. Showers will slowly decrease in coverage by this afternoon and end after sunset as high pressure builds in from the east of the forecast area. Overcast skies will clear out by Wednesday morning as high pressure strengthens to our east and upper level ridging amplifies across the southeast CONUS.
216 AM CDT Tue May 18 2021 Southerly component to the flow at the surface extend upwards as an upper low continues to spin over the southern Rockies. Latest Hrrr indicates that the low precip coverage will continue through the day and into early evening. Moving on, the short term trend will be that an upper high over the Carolinas will strengthen rather markedly by Wednesday.
128 AM EDT Tue May 18 2021 Much warmer air begins to build into the Ohio Valley Tuesday, with increasing warmth by midweek and beyond. Temperatures will be considerably warmer Tuesday as a midlevel ridge axis begins to retrograde west into the eastern Ohio Valley. Mainly dry conditions are expected Tuesday night as the ridge axis builds further into the area. Southerly flow will help lead to highs reaching at least the lower 80s.
Otherwise, high pressure will ensure dry weather today; temperatures will continue to stay above the climatological average. Warm, moist advection will continue to progress across the Ohio River Valley under high pressure. The elongated ridge across the CONUS will linger into early week. High pressure will maintain VFR and light wind throughout the TAF period. High pressure will maintain VFR through much of the week.
In fact, dew points across the island chain are only in the low to mid 60s, several degrees lower than what most numerical weather prediction guidance seem to advertise. As the pressure gradient increases across the Florida Keys, expect the low levels to gradually moisten up under freshening easterly flow by this afternoon.
352 AM EDT Tue May 18 2021 High pressure dominates through the week with minimal rain chances. High pressure surface and aloft will continue over the area through tonight with 60M height rises forecast from 12Z Tue to 12Z Wed as a strong upper level ridge builds over the eastern US. Radiational cooling will produce lows in the low to mid 50s inland.
Another round of windy and cooler weather is likely later this week and into the weekend. A low pressure circulation can be seen over northeast Arizona this afternoon. The pressure gradient will gradually begin to tighten as a low pressure system over the Pacific Northwest begins to move south. The broad low pressure system will impact our weather through the remainder of the forecast period as it becomes centered in the Great Basin.
High temperatures through Tuesday will reach the mid to upper 80s with cooler temps along the immediate coast. Rain chances will be very low given the subsidence from the ridge placement.
158 AM EDT Tue May 18 2021 [Through 06Z Wednesday] VFR conditions at all TAF sites will continue through the 06Z TAF period after some brief MVFR fog at KVQQ until 10Z as high pressure remains north to northeast of the region. After 15Z winds from the east will increase as the high to the north strengthens and slowly builds closer the region. Easterly flow will persist with high pressure situated to the north.
An upper level low will move above the Rockies today then start to eject northeast tonight. Meanwhile, a surface warm front will be found south of the area this morning and slide northward this afternoon. Rain chances then decrease tonight as an area of low pressure moves through the area.
Overview: A deamplifying upper level low, presently situated over the Desert Southwest, will slowly progress eastward across the southern Rockies tonight through Tuesday night.
Today Through Wednesday Night An upper level trough/closed low remains west of AR over the SRN Rockies early this Tue morning. The aforementioned upper trough/closed low will continue to meander west of AR through the short term period.
this morning featured a trough in the Southwest and a ridge over the East. Rising Rain Chances Tonight into Wednesday: The trough over the Southwest will move into the Plains, drift northward and slowly weaken during this period.
Wednesday and Wednesday night there is an upper level low that opens up and moves through the area. Another upper level low developing in the western CONUS has been a little slower to move to the east and a ridge builds to the east.
Temperatures will be noticeably cooler than yesterday due to the increased cloud cover.
314 AM EDT Tue May 18 2021 High pressure will bring mostly sunny skies to the region this week.
453 AM EDT Tue May 18 2021 GOES imagery and RAP analysis show a ridge axis over Upper Michigan as a shrtwv, that will move over the UP tonight remains, to the south near IA/MO. With 850mb temps a few degrees lower today than yesterday, temps are expected to be just a degree or two cooler than they were yesterday as well. Tonight, aforementioned shrtwv is expected to lift north along the western ridge axis, bringing some light rain and patchy fog. Models suggest that an amplified pattern will prevail into the weekend with a mid/upper level ridge over the eastern CONUS and a trough over the west. Wednesday, although confidence is limited, the ECMWF/NAM/CMC suggest that the higher pcpn chances during the morning will diminish during the afternoon as the supporting shrtwv moves out.
Temperatures will be cooler this afternoon as a cold front moves through the region. Highs across the Basin will be mostly in the low 80s with 90s along the Rio Grande.
The cooler air coming north with these clouds along with less sunshine through the day will affect the increase in temperatures. The upper level low pressure area spinning over the southwest U. Also, with more sunshine on Wednesday along with warmer low level air mixing out, increased highs a little. trough and a ridge over the southeastern part of the country. Dewpoints look to be rising into the lower 60s for the latter half of the week and into the upcoming weekend.
Main upper low was located over the Four Corners area. Tuesday the upper low will progress out into the southern Rockies with broad ascent across the southern into parts of the central Plains. Highs Tuesday look to warm into the lower to middle 70s. Wednesday the upper low fills as it moves northeast across western Kansas and into Nebraska as an open wave. Elevated storms will be possible with the low level jet each night and or storms propagating into the area.
Broad ridging over the eastern CONUS this morning will become more amplified, extending further northward into eastern Canada, as it shifts slightly eastward Wednesday. Meanwhile, a closed low over the Four Corners region will drift eastward into the Southern Plains and begin to open Wednesday. Weak impulses rotating around the closed low will continue to bring low rain chances to western Central Alabama today, where mid level moisture increases. Most of the area will be dry and warm, with highs in the lower to mid 80s. As the ridge amplifies tomorrow, heights increase across the area and drier mid level air returns.
1053 PM MDT Mon May 17 2021 Water vapor shows cut off low over the Four Corners with weak ridge over the northern tier of states. Next upper low is offshore the Pac NW coast. Southwest flow aloft will develop Tuesday and will continue through the weekend as upper low currently offshore the Pac NW slowly digs southeast through the western CONUS. The result will be near to above average temps most days this week (but a little cooler over the weekend), and daily chances for precip.
A few showers will be possible, but the main upper-level dynamics will have pushed northeastward as they rotate around an upper trough currently located over the Panhandle. Tonight, the upper trough will remain in place, but dynamics will be much weaker, allowing for much lower chances for showers and thunderstorms overnight. Low temperatures will still be mild, only in the low to mid 60s.