Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Low amplitude upper level trough continues to shift east across the Northern Rockies this evening, producing bands of snow showers primarily across SW MT and western portions of central and north- central MT.
/issued 845 PM EST Tue Jan 14 2020/ No sig change in the current WX pattern as an H100-H70 high pres ridge extending from Bermuda into the nrn GOMex maintains a light southerly sfc/bndry lyr flow over central FL. Light/variable sfc/bndry lyr winds with the ridge axis overhead coupled with clearing skies will allow areas of fog to dvlp over the interior, especially along and north of the I-4 Corridor.
A wind shift from the north will accompany a cold front around 15Z.
an advisory was issued for the aforementioned area and is valid until 10AM when the 850mb ridge axis shifts east and low level mixing increases. Some ice could deposit on elevated surfaces with a couple pockets of subfreezing and saturated sfc conditions as well. but all roadway sensors are reporting ground/road temperatures at least several degrees above freezing at this time.
315 AM EST Wed Jan 15 2020 Synopsis/Discussion/Marine Weak low pressure will bring light snow and rain today.
216 AM EST Wed Jan 15 2020 A cold front will move into the area tonight with warm weather expected ahead of the front today.
There is a chance that the warm front across northern Texas will lift north into far southeast Oklahoma by Wednesday morning, ending the dense fog threat early, but this is not guaranteed.
This fog is occurring just north of the warm front located near the Tennessee/Alabama border. With the warm front gradually shifting northward through the night and temperatures/dewpoints slowly rising, this area of fog will likely also shift northward but become less dense with time - so not planning on an advisory attm. A warm front continues to nose its way into Middle Tennessee from the south, with a nearly saturated boundary layer and rising dew points.
242 AM EST Wed Jan 15 2020 The pocket of very cold air currently over the Canadian Rockies and Northern Plains will split with part of the cold air moving East developing an East Coast Trough. This trough will push the deep layer ridge over Florida south into the Caribbean.
253 AM EST Wed Jan 15 2020 High pressure will briefly slide across NY and PA Wednesday, bringing fair weather for the daytime hours.
1027 PM EST Tue Jan 14 2020 A remarkably stubborn mean-layer ridge persists across the Western Caribbean, displaced somewhat to the south compared to 24 hours ago. High pressure centered southeast of Bermuda reaches west across Florida and supports moderate easterly breezes across the coastal waters of the Florida Keys. From synopsis, high pressure will remain over the western Atlantic and Florida tonight through Wednesday.
841 PM MST Tue Jan 14 2020 Low amplitude upper level trough continues to shift east across the Northern Rockies this evening, producing bands of snow showers primarily across SW MT and western portions of central and north- central MT.
CD Chattanooga Airport, TN 72 49 58 38 52 / 70 50 0 10 20 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 69 47 56 34 49 / 60 60 10 10 20 Oak Ridge, TN 69 44 54 33 48 / 50 50 0 10 20 Tri Cities Airport, TN 66 44 52 28 48 / 60 60 0 10 20.
Improvement to visibility is expected late in the small hours as winds increase and shift to northwest as a cold front advances south. The cold front moving in late evening and overnight will push any fog east of the area by 09Z and stratus soon to follow.
As of 8:30 pm MST, that area has moved east out of the western Magic Valley, and in the lower elevations only light snow showers remain. Isolated IFR/LIFR in snow and freezing fog. Wednesday morning will be dry but a warm front ahead of the next Pacific storm will move across eastern Oregon Wednesday afternoon and western Idaho Wednesday evening, with more snow mainly in northern areas.
Improving cigs forecast at least across northeast OK by the early afternoon as a cold front drops through the region. There is a chance that the warm front across northern Texas will lift north into far southeast Oklahoma by Wednesday morning, ending the dense fog threat early, but this is not guaranteed.
Cold front pushes in from the northwest after 15/18Z with SW winds veering to the N/NE as the boundary moves southeast.
Return flow on back side of the high will bring increasing southeast winds tonight. Upper ridge builds across the Northern Plains and the Dakotas Thursday.
446 AM CST Wed Jan 15 2020 A cold front currently located across southeast Colorado into southwest Kansas is forecast to move across the OK and TX Panhandles today.
Conditions should improve my mid to late morning once more, before conditions deteriorate behind a cold front tonight.
Gust potential is highly uncertain, as the arctic cold front is already starting to push southward across the northern Nebraska Panhandle, with substantial pressure rises occurring in its wake. Broad upper-level ridging will keep things dry on Thursday.
341 AM PST Wed Jan 15 2020 A trough of low pressure off the West Coast will maintain onshore flow and below average temperatures today. On late Thursday and Thursday night, a fast-moving low pressure system will bring stronger and gusty southwest to west winds to the mountains and deserts and a period of precipitation, mainly from the coast to the mountains.
The surface, currently located near the OK/KS border in south-central Kansas, will lift into eastern Kansas this morning and then quickly translating up towards the Lower Ohio River Valley by early afternoon. Behind the associated cold front, a surge of cold will drop temperatures into upper single digits to mid teens north of the Missouri River and upper teens to lower 20s south of the river.
359 AM CST Wed Jan 15 2020 A surface warm front continues to slowly inch northward this morning. Temperatures will be warmer today due to strengthening southwesterly winds. Showers and storms will exit the Mid- South by sunrise on Thursday as an arctic cold front drops southward. High pressure and upper ridging will prevail on Thursday allowing for a brief period of dry weather and cooler temperatures.
353 AM CST Wed Jan 15 2020 One more day of above normal temperatures is on tap today, as the region remains under weak southwesterly flow aloft between a developing trough off the West Coast and building high pressure over the Gulf of Mexico. A cold front currently located over the Central Plains will push south today, edging into northern portions of the area by early this afternoon, progressing southward to the Rio Grande tonight. Temperatures today will be cooler than the past couple of days, though highs in the 60s north and 70s for most of the rest of the area look to be reasonable for this afternoon. Increasing low and midlevel moisture associated with the front and developing isentropic upglide will yield increasing cloudcover tonight, along with increasing rain chances, first across the Lower Trans Pecos and Stockton Plateau.
High temperatures will range from the lower 40s around Galesburg to the middle 50s south of I-70. A weak area of low pressure will track from eastern Kansas early this morning. Once the low tracks into the eastern Great Lakes, a colder/drier airmass will filter into the region on gusty NW winds late this afternoon through tonight. After a cold/dry day on Thursday with high temperatures remaining below freezing across the northern two-thirds of the KILX CWA, attention will turn to a developing storm system for the end of the week.
Visby has just dropped to 1/4SM at SPS but this should be short lived as winds shift from the SW and then north with a cold front moving into the area late this morning through this afternoon. /issued 322 AM CST Wed Jan 15 2020/ Stratus and fog will continue into the early morning hours ahead of the approaching cold front until winds begin to veer around 12-14Z within prefrontal trough. Breezy north winds will follow the cold front late this morning thru this afternoon over much of OK but speeds will remain below advisory level.
346 AM MST Wed Jan 15 2020 After another day of above normal temperatures today, a weak weather system will bring cooler conditions and increased cloudiness on Thursday.
645 AM EST Wed Jan 15 2020 A cold front will move into the area tonight with warm weather expected ahead of the front today.
330 AM CST Wed Jan 15 2020 Lift from a second pv anomaly/short wave trough showing up early this morning as radar returns were increasing along with webcams and obs showing snowfall.
IFR to MVFR conditions across the region this morning will slowly improve later this morning and afternoon as a cold front moves across the area. /Issued 346 AM CST Wed Jan 15 2020/ Sfc warm front near the Red River Valley of SE OK with areas of dense fog ongoing north of the frontal boundary. Cold front currently through western KS will move through the area today with veering low level winds expected ahead of the front. Combination of cloud cover and expanding precip atop the cold dome will keep temps noticeably cooler Thursday.
As we have seen over the past week, temperatures will once again soar well above average topping out in the low to mid 80's.
Summary: A cold front will move through the area today with gusty northwest winds and falling temperatures occurring in its wake.
324 AM PST Wed Jan 15 2020 Near freezing temperatures are expected in the San Joaquin Valley tonight.
However, 700mb temperatures will drop by 2 to 4 degrees in the wake of the departing trough, allowing for daytime highs to feel noticeably cooler for the majority of the region, particularly across the north. This transition is all thanks to the gradual progression of the next Pacific trough inland along the west coast. Model guidance is not handling surface temperatures well with upwards of 10 degrees spread between different models, so tried to go for a happy medium for high temperatures until the aforementioned trough gets closer.
an advisory was issued for the aforementioned area and is valid until 10AM when the 850mb ridge axis shifts east and low level mixing increases. Some ice could deposit on elevated surfaces with a couple pockets of subfreezing and saturated sfc conditions as well. but all roadway sensors are reporting ground/road temperatures at least several degrees above freezing at this time any slick spots should be limited to bridges and overpasses. Well above normal temperatures are expected once again with the cold front not expected to begin to move through until mid/late evening. strong cold advection on the backside of the front will result in gusty winds and daytime highs on Thursday 15-20 degrees cooler than expected today.
As these low clouds move into the area, freezing drizzle will spread into the area.
415 AM CST Wed Jan 15 2020 A surface warm front continues to slowly inch northward this morning. Temperatures will be warmer today due to strengthening southwesterly winds. With the progression of this feature, a cold front will move towards the Mid- South this evening. Showers and storms will exit the Mid- South by sunrise on Thursday as the arctic cold front drops southward. High pressure and upper ridging will prevail on Thursday allowing for a brief period of dry weather and cooler temperatures.
Some residual snow showers in the high country should diminish around 12z, as the moisture decreases and the subsidence increases. Temperatures will be a little cooler today vs yesterday, and near normal for this time of year. An upper level ridge over the middle of the country and a trough moving onto the west coast will produce a southwest flow aloft over Colorado Thursday. The southwest flow will transport warmer air into the area. However, cooler air may linger over the eastern plains.
The light snow or flurries will gradually end this morning as the trough exits the west, then dry the rest of the day out west with some sunshine. In the northern zones, where the shallow cold air exists, there should be a decent recovery this afternoon, but did trim a few degrees off the highs. A transitory upper level ridge passes by tonight and the flow aloft is southwest on Thursday. Warmer temperatures aloft will translate to milder high temperatures over most of the region on Thursday.
/issued 242 AM EST Wed Jan 15 2020/ The pocket of very cold air currently over the Canadian Rockies and Northern Plains will split with part of the cold air moving East developing an East Coast Trough. This trough will push the deep layer ridge over Florida south into the Caribbean.
SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday): A rather blase forecast is expected during this period, with both surface and mid-level high pressure in control over Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley.
322 AM CST Wed Jan 15 2020 Stratus and fog will continue into the early morning hours ahead of the approaching cold front until winds begin to veer around 12-14Z within prefrontal trough. Breezy north winds will follow the cold front late this morning thru this afternoon over much of OK but speeds will remain below advisory level.
646 AM EST Wed Jan 15 2020 A cold front will move into the area tonight with warm weather expected ahead of the front today.
624 AM EST Wed Jan 15 2020 High pressure will briefly slide across NY and PA Wednesday, bringing fair weather for the daytime hours. High pressure will yield fair weather today as the region experiences one last day of milder than normal temperatures. An unstable boundary layer will combine with a strong cold front on Thursday to create conditions favorable for snow squalls. Temperatures will reach the lower 30s on Thursday. High pressure with cold and very dry air will build in for the remainder of the period setting the stage for the weekend storm.
546 AM CST Wed Jan 15 2020 For the 12Z TAFs,a cold front will move across the terminal sites this morning with winds becoming northwest to north and eventually northeast behind it. /Issued 446 AM CST Wed Jan 15 2020/ A cold front currently located across southeast Colorado into southwest Kansas is forecast to move across the OK and TX Panhandles today.
Elsewhere south winds around 10 mph are helping to keep the low levels mixed and limit fog development, but stratus is pretty widespread with ceilings between 500 and 1000 feet. Expect temperatures to drop below freezing by late tonight with a cold advection pattern setting up as high pressure builds southward from the northern Plains.
After another day of above normal temperatures today, a weak weather system will bring cooler conditions and increased cloudiness on Thursday.
Ridge will begin to build into the state today, pushing the snow east and again clearing skies. With the cold air remaining over the region, and high pressure in the Dakotas, temperatures tonight will again drop to near or below minus 20. Temperatures will be warming on Thursday with the ridge sliding into the plains.
520 AM EST Wed Jan 15 2020 Temperatures are in the mid 70s across the Florida Keys this morning with dew points now comfortably in the lower to mid 60s.
Much cooler weather is expected thereafter, with a weekend winter system bringing a wintry mix to the region. Areas of dense fog across southeast OH, far northern WV and far southwest PA will slowly dissipate through the morning as the 850mb ridge axis shifts east, allowing for a increase in low level mixing. Some ice could deposit onto roadways as area temperatures dip below freezing, but warm roadway temperature should alleviate significant issues. That said, extra caution should still be used, especially driving along bridges and overpasses. Warm advection within increasing southerly flow as the high shifts east will allow high temperature to become well above normal again. Strong cold advection on the backside of the front will result in gusty winds and daytime highs on Thursday 15-20 degrees cooler than expected today.
934 AM EST Wed Jan 15 2020 A cold front will move into the area tonight with warm weather expected ahead of the front today.
Lift from a second pv anomaly/short wave trough showing up early this morning as radar returns were increasing along with webcams and obs showing snowfall.
/issued 415 AM CST Wed Jan 15 2020/ A surface warm front continues to slowly inch northward this morning. Temperatures will be warmer today due to strengthening southwesterly winds. With the progression of this feature, a cold front will move towards the Mid- South this evening. Showers and storms will exit the Mid- South by sunrise on Thursday as the arctic cold front drops southward. High pressure and upper ridging will prevail on Thursday allowing for a brief period of dry weather and cooler temperatures.
An amplifying upper level trough over the eastern Pacific will generate an increasingly strong and mild southwest flow across the Great Basin through Thursday.
656 AM EST Wed Jan 15 2020 Aviation Weak low pressure will bring light snow and rain today.
346 AM CST Wed Jan 15 2020 Sfc warm front near the Red River Valley of SE OK with areas of dense fog ongoing north of the frontal boundary. Cold front currently through western KS will move through the area today with veering low level winds expected ahead of the front. Combination of cloud cover and expanding precip atop the cold dome will keep temps noticeably cooler Thursday.
The ridge axis will move a little southward late tonight as the tail end of a weak back-door front slides across the I-4 corridor by around daybreak Thu morning. Overnight lows generally in the L-M60s again, though some normally cooler interior locales could realize U50s for mins. With an inversion developing again overnight/moisture trapped beneath in the low-levels and light/calm winds; we may have a greater chance late tonight into early Thu morning of some locally dense fog development especially across interior (along/north of I- 4). Warmer than normal temperatures expected to persist across the area today. Best potential for record highs will be at Leesburg and Sanford again today, as highs are expected to reach the low 80s. Dispersion values will be poor both today and Thursday with high pressure ridging overhead providing for a very weak pressure gradient.
The interaction between high and low pressure will create moderate to breezy winds today with rising cloud decks. /issued 340 AM CST Wed Jan 15 2020/ SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday): A rather blase forecast is expected during this period, with both surface and mid-level high pressure in control over Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley.
255 PM CST Wed Jan 15 2020 A breezy night is in store for the region in the wake of a cold front that moved through the area. Overnight lows will drop into the lower 20s across central Missouri to around 30 along the Arkansas border, where more clearing will take place. Expect highs on Thursday to range from the middle 30s over central Missouri to the lower to middle 40s near the Arkansas border.
The one caveat is how fast does the high level cloudiness come in and makes a big enough difference to keep the bottom from dropping out. As a warm front approaches Thursday night, models are in good agreement of an isentropic lift event. Precipitation type can be challenging with this, but for now, we are trending cool enough in the warm layer aloft, that it appears to be a mainly snow/sleet event, and perhaps some freezing drizzle if we lose our elevated saturation layer. It is looking less likely that even in our south will see much of a chance of freezing rain, but we could get a fair amount of sleet, with perhaps some snow, if current trends continue. Keep in mind that only a few degrees warmer aloft can make this a mess, with ice accumulation more likely.
Forecast amounts came down slightly, but still looks like 2 to 6 inches with the heaviest amounts on mountain passes and ridgetop level.
111 PM MST Wed Jan 15 2020 Water vapor shows relatively flat upper ridge building into the northern rockies with next trof just offshore the Pac NW. Upper ridge builds eastward into the northern plains on Thursday with warm advection pushing temps well into the 40s across northeast WY, the Black Hills, and southwest SD.
Much cooler weather is expected thereafter, with a weekend winter system bringing a wintry mix to the region. Warm advection within increasing southerly flow as the high shifts east will allow high temperature to become well above normal again. Strong cold advection on the backside of the front will result in gusty winds and daytime highs on Thursday 15-20 degrees cooler than expected today.
1255 PM CST Wed Jan 15 2020 Freezing drizzle and rain event were beginning to come to an end this afternoon. Some of this dense fog was freezing in nature. This cold front and arctic airmass look to drive the weather in the short term period. There is a chance that the clouds could be slower and thus temps earlier in the night will stay warmer.
Deep layer ridge across s Fl has resulted in another warm day with near record high temperature this afternoon. On Thursday a cold front will approach and move across the area during the afternoon and early evening hours.
After the fog dissipates we expect skies to be mostly cloudy with moist southerly flow in the low levels and westerly flow aloft.
1037 AM MST Wed Jan 15 2020 Across the Tri State region this morning, main issue for a good portion of the CWA remains the low cloud shield and associated dense fog. Latest model trend has a sunny sky for all areas with strong 500/700 mb ridge pushing into the Plains region.
According to regional observations, the cold front is currently draped between French Lick (with a current temp of 50) and Louisville (current temp 67). Some breaks in the clouds have allowed for some insolation that could aid some showery activity this evening ahead of and along the cold front. Winds will continue to veer westerly ahead of the front gusting into the low 20mph range before dying down tonight behind the front. Thursday morning lows will dip into the low 30s across southern Indiana and north central KY and into the mid to upper 30s across central KY.
1141 AM CST Wed Jan 15 2020 Low pressure over Kansas this morning will move east-northeast today along a stalled front which is currently draped across northern Missouri and central Illinois. The low is forecast to be in the Ohio Valley by mid to late afternoon, and northwest flow behind the low will push the front southeast through Missouri and Illinois by 21-00Z.
Arctic high pressure remains centered over North Dakota this afternoon. Warm advection begins to scour out the arctic air on Thursday, as southeasterly winds on the west side of the arctic high develop and increase ahead of developing low pressure over the Rockies.
Dewpoints in the lower to mid 60s are providing very pleasant conditions, compared to the more humid weather we saw for the past couple of days. Surface analysis shows an east-west high pressure ridge extending from the western Atlantic across the northern Bahamas and central Florida. Aloft, water vapor imagery depicts a strong deep layered ridge centered over South Florida and the Keys, and extending from the western Atlantic into the southern Gulf of Mexico. The 12Z Key West sounding clearly reflects the strength of this ridge, with a formidable 6C inversion at 4000 feet, and PW of only 0.
Conditions will be dry through Thursday, as a transitory ridge builds over the region late this afternoon through tonight. Temperatures will be warmer for many locations Thursday, with readings in the lower to middle 40s for Johnson/Natrona counties and the Cody Foothills. However, the Green River and Wind River basins will remain to have cold air trapped due to the ridge and warmer 700mb temperatures strengthening the surface inversions.
The cold front that will move through later is still back in western Arkansas extending north northeastward into central Missouri. The cold front will completely move through the area by 06-09z tonight which will shut off rain chances for at least 36 hours. Thursday will be cooler with highs in the mid 40s to low 50s.
1120 AM EST Wed Jan 15 2020 Update Weak low pressure will bring light snow and rain today.