Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1000 PM CST Sat Feb 8 2020 Sfc analysis shows the front which crossed the area overnight/this morning has started lifting back nwd as a warm front with srly flow well established behind it across much of the area. Light east northeast winds less than 5 mph with slightly cooler and drier air continues north of the boundary, with temperatures in the mid to upper 60s and dewpoints in the 30s/40s. South of the boundary, southeast winds and higher dewpoints in the 50s will slowly return northward behind the northward moving warm front.
Main upper trof that has been hanging over much of the eastern conus for the last 36 to 48 hrs will continue to move off to the east this morning leading to a better zonal flow aloft across the northern Gulf states through tonight. The light rain is mostly located ahead and along the weakening frontal boundary moving in from the west combined with weak isentropic upglide developing on the back side of the departing ridge to the east.
Current IR satellite imagery indicates a fetch of moisture increasing over the low rolling plains and eastern Permian Basin with MVFR cigs developing near SJT. Highs in the 60's and 70's will be common over west TX and Southeast NM ahead of a cold front that will be pressing south across the Panhandle.
Also look for LLWS to set up by this evening as the low- level jet intensifies.
There could be up to an inch of snow in some of the lower valleys, especially along the I-90 corridor from Missoula to Drummond and down to Butte.
/Issued 323 AM EST Sun Feb 9 2020/ Dense freezing fog and dense fog advisory until 900 am this morning. The next round of wet weather will begin on Monday as a slow moving cold front drifts toward the area with deep moisture in the SW flow aloft moving over N GA and maybe portions of central GA by days end.
Split flow pattern becomes more apparent in mid levels through tonight as 500mb trough digs south along west coast. Nearly zonal flow as noted on 00z KAMA RAOB will gradually back to southwesterly as 500mb trough strengthens and begins to cutoff near southern CA. A separate wave will eject out ahead of the low from the southern tip of Baja, further enhancing return flow going into Monday. At the surface, a cold front is already advancing south through KGLD and KPUX.
A ridge of high pressure will build into the region with dry conditions expected.
335 AM MST Sun Feb 9 2020 As expected, the cold front moved through overnight bringing plenty of snow to our northern valleys and mountains. I'd expect that by 10AM the highway should just be wet as all the snow melts, if not a bit before. Even as the cold front weakens, there'll still be enough frontogenetical forcing to keep some precip going. Flow around the closed low to our west will cause southwesterly flow over the San Juans and with the cold front/boundary dropping into that area, some decent snow production is expected.
Currently, a mid level S/WV is moving south across the region behind a potent low pressure system that brought accumulating snowfall to southwest North Dakota the past 12-18 hours. Strong mid level S/WV swings southeast into the Northern Plains tonight, dragging another cold front south into the region.
428 AM MST Sun Feb 9 2020 Current IR Satellite loop across the western half of the United States shows an elongated upper level trough across the state of Wyoming with the trough axis extending from the Dakotas westward into the northern Great Basin region. Energy associated with the trough has split with the clear indication of the northern branch of the more vigorous upper level energy translating east across the Dakotas into Minnesota/Iowa region this morning. The poorly organized southern branch of the trough will continue digging south into the southern Great Basin region or stall over southern California or Baja California later today/early Monday. Again, not expect much, if any, snow accumulation with this progressive trough and associated cold front, with any accumulations generally below one inch outside of the mountains.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 55 43 57 54 63 / 10 20 100 100 70 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 53 40 53 50 60 / 10 10 100 100 70 Oak Ridge, TN 53 40 52 49 59 / 10 20 100 100 50 Tri Cities Airport, TN 52 36 52 48 57 / 10 10 100 100 70 NC.
With an upper trough digging south across the western CONUS, a closed low will develop and drop south to near the border of southern California and northern Baja by 6 AM Monday. Well out ahead of this trough/low, the flow aloft will become southwesterly over our area. With the aforementioned possibility of the approach of the weak, embedded disturbance, a few showers and thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening across some of our eastern and southeastern counties, ahead of the approaching cold front. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible tonight in the vicinity of the cold front, as it moves through our Heartland counties, and into the southern part of our area overnight. Today will feel early spring-like with highs in the lower to mid 70s and dewpoints in the 50s to lower 60s.
318 AM CST Sun Feb 9 2020 Today: The cold front is on our doorsteps as of 3am and will traverse through the forecast area over the next few hours. This cold front will bring in cooler air and temperatures will in the 30s across the area. The combination of the cooler air and wind will cause wind chill temps to be in the teens to low 20s across the area.
Fine weather expected today with a good bit of sun and warm temps, as SFC/LL high vacate and weak ridging aloft shifts southwest. Deep upper low will move very slowly across the southwest US while SFC/LL high moves across the OH valley. Early Wed however, upper low across the southwest opens and accelerates east, going negative Wed night. This will initially drag a warm north, with a trailing cold front passing Wed night. Also look for LLWS to set up by this evening as the low- level jet intensifies.
232 AM MST Sun Feb 9 2020 Current IR Satellite loop across the western half of the United States shows an elongated upper level trough across the state of Wyoming with the trough axis extending from the Dakotas westward into the northern Great Basin region. Energy associated with the trough has split with the clear indication of the northern branch of the more vigorous upper level energy translating east across the Dakotas into Minnesota/Iowa region this morning. The poorly organized southern branch of the trough will continue digging south into the southern Great Basin region or stall over southern California or Baja California later today/early Monday. Again, not expect much, if any, snow accumulation with this progressive trough and associated cold front, with any accumulations generally below one inch outside of the mountains.
Generally, more zonal flow is being observed across most of the CONUS, with a pronounced positively tilted trough over the western U. As the day progresses, the trough will move south and become a closed low. Moisture and warmer temperatures are already advecting into the area. East of I-35, there will be more moisture to work with, so light rain is expected for most of the day, with it moving out with the cold front early this evening.
High pressure builds in behind the snow today, so the winds will diminish rather quickly this afternoon. However, clouds will increase Monday afternoon as an upper trough dips into the Dakotas.
201 AM MST Sun Feb 9 2020 Upper air analysis depicts a positively tilted trough axis centered over the Northern Plains, trailing back toward the California coast. Broad surface to 700mb frontogenesis continues along the northwestern periphery of the low, providing continued ascent for areas of light-to-moderate snow showers this morning.
411 AM MST Sun Feb 9 2020 Upper air analysis depicts a positively tilted trough axis centered over the Northern Plains, trailing back toward the California coast. Broad surface to 700mb frontogenesis continues along the northwestern periphery of the low, providing continued ascent for areas of light-to-moderate snow showers this morning.
At the surface, cold front pushed south across the area last evening. Expect a chilly night with lows in the lower teens and single digits.
959 AM EST Sun Feb 9 2020 High pressure will prevail into Monday before a cold front nears and then stalls.
This is based mostly by the low level jet and moisture transport being centered over the area toward 00z. Light snow will develop early this afternoon and become locally heavy by late afternoon when the low level jet arrives. Fortunately, most temperatures will be above freezing by then, so it should be just plain drizzle vs. freezing drizzle. There is a concern for Monday morning as the above freezing temperatures will drop below freezing just prior to daybreak.
Weather concerns over the next 24 hours will focus mainly on the strong northwesterly flow that is overspreading the CWA behind the cold front pushing thru the area.
657 AM EST Sun Feb 9 2020 A weak area of low pressure will track south of Pennsylvania tonight.
538 AM EST Sun Feb 9 2020 High pressure will prevail into Monday before a cold front nears and then stalls.
Meanwhile, an expansive western Atlantic ridge will extend across the Southeast United States, before sagging southward and over the Sunshine State toward the middle of this week.
551 AM EST Sun Feb 9 2020 High pressure should return mainly dry conditions most of today until crossing low pressure results in widespread precipitation tonight night through Monday. NW PA, N of a FKL to DUJ line, should see the highest accumulation.
Dry conditions and warmer temperatures are expected mid- week. Light snow showers continue in the higher elevations of northern and eastern Elko county above 6500 ft. Dry conditions and warmer temperatures are expected mid- week. Today and Tuesday An upper level low will continue to bring valley rain and mountain snow showers to northern Nevada today. Tomorrow, the upper level low will continue to cause precipitation in eastern Nevada. Lows into Tuesday will once again drop below freezing in most places but rebound into the 50s to 70s north to south.
A warming trend will begin today as high pressure shifts toward the West Coast. Temperatures will begin a warming trend through midweek as high pressure moves over the West Coast. Winds will continue to be breezy along the coast and across interior ridges. The combination of drier northerly flow and and breezy ridgetop winds will lead to some elevated conditions for fire weather in eastern Lake County.
Strong upper level low will lift north/northeast across the Dakotas and western Minnesota and into southern Canada overnight. This low will produce a tight pressure gradient across the region and with a well mixed boundary layer below the capping inversion, it will be another day with strong and gusty winds. Forecast soundings suggest the cap will remain in place through the early evening, so initially a wind and hail threat, but the as the evening/night progresses, the cap looks to erode allowing the lowest levels to come into play. TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY: Showers and possibly storms from Monday night's weather will linger into Tuesday as the cold front continues to move across the area.
/issued 445 AM EDT Mon May 30 2022/ Increased rain chances over the next few days as ridging aloft to our north over the E CONUS and surface ridging over the W Atlantic provide moisture influx via E/SE flow across the peninsula. Increasing late afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms expected during the first half of the week with high pressure over the Atlantic favoring southeast and east flow over the waters.
A low pressure system continues to linger over southern Idaho causing wrap around precipitation into the Northern Rockies. The heaviest precipitation is mainly occurring south of the I-90 corridor with snow mainly impacting the higher terrain of Lemhi county into southwest Montana. The low will slowly exit out of the region today leaving behind a cool and unstable atmosphere.
The attendant cold front will move across Kansas and Nebraska today, and generally extending across northeast Kansas, northwest Missouri, and on up into western Iowa by late this afternoon and evening.
Thereafter, high pressure aloft will build over the Desert Southwest resulting in daytime temperatures peaking several degrees above seasonal averages.
1037 AM EDT Mon May 30 2022 Increasing moisture over south central FL, a weak inverted trough off the coast, and unsettled pattern aloft is helping generate numerous showers and storms over the Treasure Coast waters this morning. Numerous showers and storms are ongoing across the Treasure Coast waters near a weak inverted trough off the coast this morning.
607 AM CDT Mon May 30 2022 The CWA remains positioned between a building ridge to the east and a deepening trough to the west. The main focus in the short-term period remains an approaching cold front and severe storm chances on Tuesday. In turn, a cold front will swing southeastward through the Middle Mississippi Valley. While the main forcing from the trough will remain north of the front, lift from the upper-level jet as it glances the CWA and forcing from the front will help initiate convection in this unstable airmass during the late afternoon/early evening time frame across portions of central and northeastern Missouri as well as west-central Illinois. One final point with this severe threat: The trend over the last several model initializations is for a faster cold front that is positioned further southeastward when convection develops.
Around mid to late afternoon there will be a slight chance of light showers in northeastern Lake county as a short wave swings around an upper low that shifts from north of or area to east of our region. An upper ridge builds in rapidly Tuesday, resulting in a thermal trough deepening rapidly on the coast and east winds spreading across the entire region by Tuesday morning. As we head into mid week models are showing a deepening upper low developing and possibly shifting into a Hudson bay upper low pattern towards the end of the week.
(This evening through Monday) South winds of 20 to 30 mph were gusting over 40 mph at times this afternoon, with the higher gusts in the Big Country. Breezy south winds will continue overnight into Monday, with a lee trough remaining along the Texas and New Mexico state line. Gusty south winds tonight will keep the atmosphere mixed and overnight lows in the lower 70s.
- Cold front passage will result in below normal temperatures for most of the week. Mostly sunny skies are expected this afternoon, however temperatures at the 850 hPa level will be much cooler today. An upper level low associated with 100 kt mid-level jet will move off of the Rocky Mountains to the north-northeast into Nebraska and into the Dakotas. If the dryline doesn't result in storm initiation, CAMs are in good agreement in initiation along the cold front much later in the evening (around 9 PM).
Itâs hard to imagine a scenario where nothing occurs will all the dynamic forcing at play â negatively tilted upper level trough, stacked low, triple point, strong LLJ, strong shear, high buoyancy, and PWATs of 1. The rest of the forecast turns to high pressure and northwesterly flow for the most part.
By the mid-afternoon, thunderstorms should be to the north and east of the forecast area as the front moves east with the low. Energy from upper level low rotates through that area during the day and sufficient moisture is present at the surface with dew points in the 50s. The weather pattern becomes less active Monday night into Tuesday as the surface and upper level lows continue north out of Minnesota into Canada.
High pressure continues to bring mostly clear and dry weather. Discussion: Upper ridge axis will continue to strengthen across the area with 500mb heights increasing to 588 dam this afternoon. With the strengthening ridge, temperatures will climb above average.
600 AM CDT Mon May 30 2022 (Today through Tuesday) High pressure remains anchored near the East Coast both at the surface and aloft. This means a persistent warm, moist flow across Middle Tennessee that is advecting ever-warmer air into the region. Temperatures will be warmer today than yesterday and even warmer tomorrow.
514 AM CDT Mon May 30 2022 Warmer weather is expected to start off the new week with high temperatures nearing 90 degrees both today and Tuesday. Shower and storm chances hold off until Tuesday evening as a cold front works into the area. Temperatures today will be slightly warmer than yesterday with highs peaking in the upper 80s to near 90. The strong low over the central Plains will lift into the Upper Mississippi River Valley and then eventually into ONtario on Tuesday with an associated cold front stretched southward from there.
SHORT TERM (Today through Tuesday): The ridge over the Ohio River Valley continues to control our weather pattern through the Short Term period. Tonight will be another muggy one with lows in the 80s for the valley! NBM did not do well with last night's lows, so manually adjusted forecast a couple of degrees warmer than what NBM suggested for tonight.
644 AM EDT Mon May 30 2022 Warm and dry weather will persist today through Tuesday in the circulation around high pressure centered to the southeast.
627 AM CDT Mon May 30 2022 (Today through Tuesday) The mid to upper level subtropical ridge will remain over Texas through the short term period. The low level flow will continue to be from the southeast keeping a warm, moist airmass in place across South Central Texas.
645 AM EDT Mon May 30 2022 High pressure across the region through midweek with above normal temperatures.
/issued 435 AM CDT Mon May 30 2022/ SHORT TERM (Today through Tuesday): The ridge over the Ohio River Valley continues to control our weather pattern through the Short Term period. Tonight will be another muggy one with lows in the 80s for the valley! NBM did not do well with last night's lows, so manually adjusted forecast a couple of degrees warmer than what NBM suggested for tonight.
/issued 353 AM CDT Mon May 30 2022/ Dry, confluent upper level flow will cover the area today behind the upper low that will be spinning into the northern plains.
In the lower levels, there are a few isolated showers moving northward across the Straits of Florida, Hawk Channel waters, and across portions of the Lower Keys. In the upper levels we still have a cut-off upper level low situated near the GA/FL line. From synopsis: high pressure over the western Atlantic will remain through much of the week.
As core of upper level ridge moves closer to the region, we should see another bump in afternoon temperatures. A large upper trough will lie southwest from the western Great Lakes towards southern California. Gusts over our southern Indiana and northern Kentucky counties could reach into the low 20 mph range.
437 AM MDT Mon May 30 2022 Scattered showers and thunderstorms have intensified across portions of Lincoln and Washington counties during the past hour, just ahead of the trof axis which will be lifting northeast across Colorado this morning. The upper low will rapidly lift northeast across Nebraska and into the Dakota's later this afternoon and evening. Behind the low, moderate westerly flow will develop over much of Colorado. Cross sections the low to mid level flow is not all that strong, ranging from 25-40kt range. Scattered showers will continue across the high country during the daytime Tuesday, with more widespread precipitation developing later Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night.
(Rest of Today) A warm Memorial Day will unfold this afternoon as a stacked ridge over the Mid Atlantic maintains influence over the Southeast. With southerly flow over the Lower Mississippi Valley, low-level moisture advection was causing a cumulostratus deck to overspread northwest Alabama.
Then late this afternoon, the cold front will push through turning winds to the northwest for the evening and overnight. This cold front is expected to be the center of convective development tonight, and fortunately, it looks to push most, if not all, of the way through the area by the time of initiation (mainly after 10pm).
Lighter winds return on Tuesday, along with warming temperatures as high pressure builds into the region for much of the week. The bulk of the energy with the longwave trough over the western US begins to move eastward today into the Central Plains. As a result, winds lighten up a bit (though still remaining breezy) along with slightly cooler temperatures around 5-10 degrees below normal. As the trough begins to lift northward on Tuesday, temperatures begin to rise again by a few degrees over today and winds remain light with locally breezy conditions over the high terrain.
736 AM EDT Mon May 30 2022 Another dry day is expected for the North Country as high pressure remains over the region. Temperatures will be a couple of degrees warmer than yesterday. Tuesday will also start out dry, but a backdoor cold front will move into the area from the northeast and bring cooler conditions along with the potential for some light rain showers.
655 AM CDT Mon May 30 2022 Very complex forecast over the next 18-24 hours, with multiple waves of storms possibly rotating northward across the forecast area through this afternoon/early evening, as an intensifying mid-upper level trough lifts from Nebraska into South Dakota. However, as storms approaching a northward moving warm front, or develop along an eastward moving dry line, enhanced low level shear may favor a more concentrated tornadic potential. Tonight, the surface/upper low lift north of the area, with cooler westerly flow taking over. Cooler air will dominate through midweek as the upper low lifts into Canada and a cool front pushes southeast through the region on Tuesday. Also some uncertainty in strength of this jet, though potential for 55-60kt or higher within the lowest 2kft AGL.
631 AM CDT Mon May 30 2022 (Today and tonight) Morning water vapor imagery shows a large cutoff off over the Great Basin, with upper level ridging over the eastern CONUS. Overnight lows will only drop off into the lower to mid 70s.
1047 AM EDT Mon May 30 2022 Warm high pressure will persist over our region through most of the week.
528 AM MDT Mon May 30 2022 Current surface map places stalled front over the eastern Dakotas with pressure falling across the high plains in response to upper low moving across the central Rockies.
458 AM CDT Mon May 30 2022 An upper level ridge of high pressure across the Southeast and lower MS River valley will continue to bring midsummer-like temperatures to the Midsouth today and Tuesday.
The next round of shower/storm chances moves in after midnight along a cold front, but CAMs suggest activity dies while moving into our CWA. This cold front continues moving east through Tuesday and may initiate shower/thunderstorm activity across the east Tuesday afternoon. A much cooler and drier air mass moves in Tuesday night resulting in a stretch of pleasant spring weather.
Fairly light onshore flow overhead will continue today with a warm front to our north continuing to push further away. Temperatures are forecast to rise into the low to mid 90s across most of the area this afternoon.
Itâs hard to imagine a scenario where nothing occurs will all the dynamic forcing at play â negatively tilted upper level trough, stacked low, triple point, strong LLJ, strong shear, high buoyancy, and PWATs of 1. The rest of the forecast turns to high pressure and northwesterly flow for the most part. Severe storm potential decreases after midnight, but some showers still will float through with the low.
/issued 458 AM CDT Mon May 30 2022/ An upper level ridge of high pressure across the Southeast and lower MS River valley will continue to bring midsummer-like temperatures to the Midsouth today and Tuesday.