Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
313 PM EDT Wed Apr 13 2022 KBYX Doppler radar continues to detect a belt of light, persistent band of showers over portions of the Lower Keys and the adjacent coastal waters. A frontal boundary associated with an amplified longwave trough will continue to pivot eastward, as high pressure over the west- central Atlantic pushes eastward. This will result in a weakening ridge pattern for the Florida Keys. The frontal boundary associated with the aforementioned longwave trough will stall in the vicinity of the Florida Peninsula for the weekend. This will keep the Keys in a weakly ridged pattern.
This low will drag a cold front through the Lower Mississippi Valley this evening.
Much of the area remains below freezing this afternoon, or just above it across the Magic Valley, which remains 20-25 degrees below normal for mid- April. By this point, temps SHOULD be warm enough across the lower Snake and Magic Valley to support rain or a rain/snow mix but this will be something to keep an eye on over the next 24 hours or so. Temps in this areas are forecast to top out in the low to mid 40s with mountain zones remaining in the mid to upper 30s. Across the higher terrain however, snow will remain the dominant precip type with some decent accumulations likely in the eastern highlands for tomorrow.
A cold front has pushed through the area with strong and gusty northwest winds. (This afternoon through Thursday night) A cold front pushed through the region this morning, resulting in gusty northwest winds and cooler weather. Temperatures this afternoon will be some 10-15 degrees cooler than yesterday with most areas reaching the mid 70s by late afternoon. Despite the cooler weather, very dry air and gusty winds continue resulting in continued fire weather concerns, see the Fire Weather Discussion for more details. Morning lows on Thursday are expected to fall back into the low 40s and upper 30s across much of the region. Temperatures may even fall to freezing in parts of Southeast New Mexico and the far northwestern Permian Basin.
Light snow accumulations are expected, mainly in the higher elevations. Some of the snow showers will produce brief moderate to heavy snow this afternoon due to the instability with an upper trough over the Pacific Northwest.
1244 PM CDT Wed Apr 13 2022 The upper low that brought showers and storms to our region will exit the Northern Plains today and leave westerly flow aloft behind it. Thursday morning lows will be near or below freezing.
(This evening through Thursday) Calm conditions return as storms as well as the cold front has cleared Oklahoma and western north Texas to the east. Fire weather will continue to be a concern in southwestern Oklahoma and western north Texas, although the threat is more marginal with the slower winds and some RH recovery with the cooler temperatures. Coupled with the clearing skies and the dry airmass, overnight cooling will be enhanced across the region, with areas in northern Oklahoma possibly getting close to below freezing temperatures.
/issued 308 AM CDT Wed Apr 13 2022/ The cold front is currently making its way southward across the southern Texas Panhandle/northerly South Plains. This will result in relative humidity dropping into the low to mid single digits despite cooler temps. This will allow for temps to drop into the low/mid 30s on the Caprock and mid/upper 30s across the Rolling Plains. At the surface, the 1018 mb anticyclone is expected to be located across the middle Mississippi River Valley, veering winds to the south over the High Plains region. Temperatures will respond accordingly, with highs about 5-10 deg F warmer than the previous day.
While a strong wave quickly rides from Texas to Wisconsin today around the strong upper low to our north, we are seeing widespread rain, drizzle, and a few thunderstorms with pea size hail along and west of the cold front this afternoon. After starting the day in the lower to mid 60s, we are now in the lower to mid 40s over eastern Iowa. This favors troughing in the east allowing for a wetter/cool regime.
This morning, Southeast Arizona observed cooler temperatures for the month of April with several locations dipping down below freezing. This may be the one of the last cooler days as the overall pattern starts to transition towards the summer time regime. Expect another cooler morning, but not as cold as this morning before climbing back to near to slightly above normal for April's morning temperatures.
350 PM EDT Wed Apr 13 2022 Expect some scattered showers and thunderstorms around the region this evening as a warm front continues to drift north of the area. A cold front will push through the Finger Lakes late Thursday morning, reaching the Hudson Valley by afternoon.
Much cooler weather is expected behind the front. The cold front has pushed east out of the forecast area, however trailing showers behind the front has led to flooding across portions of the Missouri Ozarks. As these showers continue to push east and eventually push out of the area later this afternoon/evening, high pressure will begin to filter into the area, raising mid level heights. As a result, can expect clear skies throughout the area, allowing for radiational cooling to lower overnight temperatures to the low to mid 30s. As the high pressure continues to build south into the area Thursday morning, can expect quiet and cooler weather, with highs in the low to mid 60s expected. Thursdays overnight lows will yield temperatures in the low to mid 40s.
231 PM EDT Wed Apr 13 2022 A strong cold front is currently on the march across the southeast however models agree the front will stall just before it reaches the west coast of Florida and remain there through the weekend. This will result in ridging remaining over the area through the weekend.
1218 PM CDT Wed Apr 13 2022 (The rest of today ) Cold front making steady progress eastward with an associated corridor of storms with an isolated strong to severe storm possible until the front clears the forecast area.
The light winds and mainly clear skies will allow low temperatures to drop into the mid 20's to the lower 30's. Critical fire weather conditions are possible across the northwest and north-central CWA on Thursday where the strongest winds will be found with the lowest relative humidity.
(Through tonight ) Storms have exited the forecast area this afternoon as strong cold front has swept the warm and moist air east, replacing it with an unseasonably cool airmass. Strong radiational cooling conditions will result in temps near or below freezing in much of the area and thus a freeze warning will be issued for areas generally N of US 412 where confidence in more widespread freezing temps is highest.
1051 AM MDT Wed Apr 13 2022 The trough continues into the Dakotas this morning, slowly releasing its grip on WY weather. Most snowfall has ended, but will likely return for the western mountains starting this afternoon, due to the combination of convective bands setting up off the higher elevations, and moisture sweeping in from the west.
356 PM CDT Wed Apr 13 2022 A trough is situated over the Northern Plains with a segment stretching along the Mississippi River Valley, and the system is deepening as it tracks to the east. After a morning wintry mix, cooler air behind the cold front that moved through last night kept Kansas well below normal (~15 degrees) with afternoon temperatures in the 40s to low 50s.
(The rest of today ) Cold front making steady progress eastward with an associated corridor of storms with an isolated strong to severe storm possible until the front clears the forecast area.
1237 PM CDT Wed Apr 13 2022 Failed to mention in the primary discussion, the potential for a freezing temperatures across northern Missouri and northeastern Kansas Tonight. Anticipate Lows to dip below freezing early Thursday morning, remaining so for several hours in some locations.
239 PM CDT Wed Apr 13 2022 Quiet weather is expected through the short term as strong upper level low pressure system remains over the northern Plains before pushing north and east. This will result in cooler than normal temperatures through Thursday night. Normal lows for this time of year are in the low to mid 30s.
128 PM EDT Wed Apr 13 2022 Showers and thunderstorms are expected tonight and into Thursday morning with the approach and passage of a cold front.
450 PM EDT Wed Apr 13 2022 Showers and thunderstorms are expected tonight and into Thursday morning with the approach and passage of a cold front.
233 PM CDT Wed Apr 13 2022 Key Messages: - Strong, gusty winds on Thursday - Well below average temps through the weekend Tonight Latest water vapor satellite imagery shows upper level closed low spinning over the Northern Plains States. Several pieces of energy are rotating around the upper level closed low per the water vapor satellite imagery.
FFG values are rather low across the northwest given the high amounts that fell yesterday.
242 PM CDT Wed Apr 13 2022 A cooler, very dry airmass has settled in behind the front that passed south of our area overnight. We've seen periods of gusty winds especially in the wake of the upper trough axis with Reese Center mesonet site gusting to 56mph at 1:15pm CDT. Tomorrow will be warmer, with only slightly higher dewpoints, thus RH values will still be very low across our FA.
626 PM CDT Wed Apr 13 2022 (This evening through Thursday) Late this afternoon, a cold front had pushed into central Texas. Temperatures will fall into the low to mid 40s tonight, and down into the 30s in some low-lying areas. High temperatures will once again reach the low to mid 80s.
632 PM CDT Wed Apr 13 2022 As of 20z, the cold front is on the St. Otherwise, weak high pressure will build in over the lower Mississippi River Valley while the closed low over the Great Lakes Region remains in place through the short term. CAA will be rather weak, so even with lows in the low to mid 30s, the period of any freezing temperatures will be very brief, thus we do not need to issue any freeze headlines at this time. However, it will be rather windy, especially across northern portions of the forecast area, closer to the closed low in the Great Lakes region. By Thursday night, a majority of the deterministic and ensemble models indicate that the closed low will begin to slide to the northeast.
622 PM CDT Wed Apr 13 2022 (Through tonight ) Storms have exited the forecast area this afternoon as strong cold front has swept the warm and moist air east, replacing it with an unseasonably cool airmass. Strong radiational cooling conditions will result in temps near or below freezing in much of the area and thus a freeze warning will be issued for areas generally N of US 412 where confidence in more widespread freezing temps is highest.
806 PM EDT Wed Apr 13 2022 Showers and thunderstorms are expected tonight and into Thursday morning with the approach and passage of a cold front.
The low is becoming vertically stacked through H5 and that is forecast to be about complete this evening.
Temperatures are still very mild because of the south winds with temperatures still in the lower 70s. Dew points are only in the lower to mid 50s so best instability is definitely west and south.
Thereafter, drier and much cooler air will rush in behind the cold front overnight. High pressure will then build in for the Thu/Thu night time frame.
The flow aloft never really amplifies into a true ridge, allowing for breezy gradients to stick around, but hghts do rise a bit above average by the weekend.
An upper level trough will remain the dominant influence across the Pacific Northwest through the majority of the week, which will continue to bring showery weather and below normal temperatures to Western Washington.
645 PM CDT Wed Apr 13 2022 Key Messages: - Strong, gusty winds on Thursday - Well below average temps through the weekend Tonight Latest water vapor satellite imagery shows upper level closed low spinning over the Northern Plains States. Several pieces of energy are rotating around the upper level closed low per the water vapor satellite imagery.
628 PM CDT Wed Apr 13 2022 (This evening through Thursday) Calm conditions return as storms as well as the cold front has cleared Oklahoma and western north Texas to the east. Fire weather will continue to be a concern in southwestern Oklahoma and western north Texas, although the threat is more marginal with the slower winds and some RH recovery with the cooler temperatures. Coupled with the clearing skies and the dry airmass, overnight cooling will be enhanced across the region, with areas in northern Oklahoma possibly getting close to below freezing temperatures.
A cold front over central Arkansas will quickly move across the Midsouth this evening ending the showers and thunderstorms from west to east.
The cold front promoting the convection will move east the state the evening, with cool conditions prevailing overnight.
(The rest of tonight) Surface winds continue to diminish this evening as ridging conditions settle in. Light winds and clear skies will allow temps to fall quickly the remainder of the night, with lows dipping to near freezing for NE OK into NW AR and lower/mid 30s elsewhere.
1030 PM EDT Wed Apr 13 2022 Currently - A robust surface through lower level ridge centered well east northeast of the Bahamas extends a ridge westward across South Florida and into the far southeastern Gulf of Mexico. The lower inversion at Key West is likely due to the arrival of some Cuban influences on a southeasterly steering flow. Short Term Update - The ridge axis across Florid will nudge a bit further south overnight as a trough swings up the Atlantic Coast. This will push the ridges tradewind belt slightly south. This along with a decent amount of moisture and some room to grow through the lower levels, a few showers will be possible. A ridge across Florida will slip slightly south overnight.
Lingering rainfall will begin to taper off from the west heading into the overnight hrs, as a cold front begins to sweep thru the mid TN Valley. Temps will also be slow to fall prior to the passage of the cold front given current readings in the upper 60s/mid 70s. Clear skies and cooler conditions will continue Thu night with lows in the low/mid 40s.
Winds will ultimately turn out of the northwest or north after a cold front moves through in the wake of storms. This low will drag a cold front through the Lower Mississippi Valley this evening.
For tonight, still expecting breezy westerly winds to mix down across the far southeast plains late this afternoon, with winds diminishing across all of the lower elevations through the evening hours. The westerly flow will also keep snow ongoing across the higher terrain of the central mts, especially north of Cotton Wood Pass, with light accumulations of a few inches possible by early Thursday morning. Otherwise, with the dry air in place and diminishing winds, will see another cool night across the area, with lows mainly in the teens and 20s across the region, coolest in the valley locales and warmest along the lower eastern slopes. This will lead to another day of breezy westerly winds of 20 to 40 mph mixing down across the lower elevations through the late morning and afternoon hours.
323 PM MDT Wed Apr 13 2022 The low pressure system remains nearly stationary over eastern North Dakota this afternoon with a tight surface pressure gradient and cold advection combining to produce strong and gusty northwest winds, especially from northwestern into south central South Dakota, where gusts over 60 mph are occurring this afternoon. The low pressure system will drift slowly eastward tonight and on Thursday. An inch or two of additional snow accumulation is possible there overnight, with the higher amounts closer to the North Dakota border. High temperatures on Thursday will be only slightly warmer than today.
1051 PM EDT Wed Apr 13 2022 Update Cold front is coming ashore as of 1030pm with Manistee and Ludington where winds have already shifted to the west. Deep layer shear in this region is on the low side. As cold front in western Illinois pushes east late this afternoon and evening there will be a window where better deep layer shear and some instability could come together in our CWA. Then from 04z to 07z a narrow line of shallow convection develops on the cold front.
631 PM CDT Wed Apr 13 2022 Quiet weather is expected through the short term as strong upper level low pressure system remains over the northern Plains before pushing north and east. This will result in cooler than normal temperatures through Thursday night. Normal lows for this time of year are in the low to mid 30s.
749 PM EDT Wed Apr 13 2022 A cold front will quickly move through the region tonight with showers and storms likely. High pressure will build in on Thursday, providing mostly sunny skies and cooler temperatures.
Temperatures will steadily warm through the first half of the weekend with unsettled conditions continuing for northern Utah, resulting in periods of showers, primarily over the higher terrain.
942 PM CDT Wed Apr 13 2022 Closed low continues to rotate over the Dakotas, with moderate snow over north central North Dakota. As the mid-level cyclone shifts east overnight, snowfall rates should fall below the 1 inch/hour that area has been experiencing for much of today. The low is becoming vertically stacked through H5 and that is forecast to be about complete this evening.
629 PM CDT Wed Apr 13 2022 Clouds associated with convection that moved through the area today will continue to clear out as high pressure moves into the region. The cold front promoting the convection will move east the state the evening, with cool conditions prevailing overnight.
So overnight lows will be warmer than last night but will still remain around 5 to 10 degrees below normal. The flow aloft never really amplifies into a true ridge, allowing for breezy gradients to stick around, but hghts do rise a bit above average by the weekend.
Winds will continue to settle this evening before some variability ensues due to high pressure overhead. (This afternoon through Thursday night) A cold front pushed through the region this morning, resulting in gusty northwest winds and cooler weather. Temperatures this afternoon will be some 10-15 degrees cooler than yesterday with most areas reaching the mid 70s by late afternoon. Despite the cooler weather, very dry air and gusty winds continue resulting in continued fire weather concerns, see the Fire Weather Discussion for more details. Morning lows on Thursday are expected to fall back into the low 40s and upper 30s across much of the region. Temperatures may even fall to freezing in parts of Southeast New Mexico and the far northwestern Permian Basin.
328 PM MDT Wed Apr 13 2022 Upper low gradually spinning east across the Dakotas continues to bring wrap-around snow into eastern Montana this afternoon.
/NEW/ /Tonight through Thursday Night/ High pressure will continue to build into North Texas tonight behind earlier storms and will allow winds to diminish quickly after sunset.
Otherwise, high pressure to our east remains in control as approaching frontal boundary continues to pull moisture over the Peninsula. /issued 231 PM EDT Wed Apr 13 2022/ A strong cold front is currently on the march across the southeast however models agree the front will stall just before it reaches the west coast of Florida and remain there through the weekend. This will result in ridging remaining over the area through the weekend.
High pressure will continue to build into the region this week resulting in widespread dry weather and gradually warming temperatures. Pronounced negative PV anomalies and deep troughing have shifted into the central Conus this afternoon with strong NW flow in its wake covering the Southwest. Through the remainder of the week, negative height anomalies will migrate into the northern tier of the United States while broad, low amplitude ridging and fast quasi- zonal flow envelops the southern states.
Did not make any changes to forecast low temps in the mid to upper 60s, except holding in the low to mid 70s along the coast due to the persistent onshore flow. The bulk of the high clouds will move east of the area overnight. As high pressure move seaward over the western Atlc flow will veer further into Thu with increasing moisture through the day.
Severe thunderstorms will be possible through this evening as a band of thunderstorms moves west to east ahead of a cold front. After 12Z Thursday, high pressure will bring quickly clearing skies and light winds.
Sfc obs and satellite imagery show the sfc cold front extending east of the I-35 corridor (along and east of a line from Austin to Corsicana) as of 2PM. lows in the low 60s along the Islands.
---BMickelson Previous discussion: Vertically stacked low pressure is nearly stalled over eastern ND this afternoon and not expected to move east until Thursday morning. NW winds will remain strong Thursday as mixing takes place while the low pulls away to our east.
As the mid-level cyclone shifts east overnight, snowfall rates should fall below the 1 inch/hour that area has been experiencing for much of today. The low is becoming vertically stacked through H5 and that is forecast to be about complete this evening.
/issued 242 PM CDT Wed Apr 13 2022/ A cooler, very dry airmass has settled in behind the front that passed south of our area overnight. We've seen periods of gusty winds especially in the wake of the upper trough axis with Reese Center mesonet site gusting to 56mph at 1:15pm CDT. Tomorrow will be warmer, with only slightly higher dewpoints, thus RH values will still be very low across our FA.
525 PM MDT Wed Apr 13 2022 The low pressure system remains nearly stationary over eastern North Dakota this afternoon with a tight surface pressure gradient and cold advection combining to produce strong and gusty northwest winds, especially from northwestern into south central South Dakota, where gusts over 60 mph are occurring this afternoon. The low pressure system will drift slowly eastward tonight and on Thursday. An inch or two of additional snow accumulation is possible there overnight, with the higher amounts closer to the North Dakota border. High temperatures on Thursday will be only slightly warmer than today.
648 PM CDT Wed Apr 13 2022 A trough is situated over the Northern Plains with a segment stretching along the Mississippi River Valley, and the system is deepening as it tracks to the east. After a morning wintry mix, cooler air behind the cold front that moved through last night kept Kansas well below normal (~15 degrees) with afternoon temperatures in the 40s to low 50s.
354 AM CDT Thu Apr 14 2022 Day three of the ongoing blizzard is the highlight of the short term. Overnight lows will be quite chilly, dropping into the single digits in western North Dakota and the lower teens in the central.
/ISSUED 540 PM MDT Wed Apr 13 2022/ Extensive cloud cover continues through tonight and into tomorrow, gradually thinning with time, as we find our region positioned under a col region with cut-off lows to the east and west. Meanwhile, broad upward motion aloft associated with an area of deformation between the two aforementioned cut-off lows and cyclonic northwesterly flow in the low-levels over north-central will help squeeze out additional light snow or flurries.
1244 AM CDT Thu Apr 14 2022 (This evening through Thursday) Late this afternoon, a cold front had pushed into central Texas. Temperatures will fall into the low to mid 40s tonight, and down into the 30s in some low-lying areas. High temperatures will once again reach the low to mid 80s.
303 AM CDT Thu Apr 14 2022 (Issued 302 AM CDT Thu Apr 14 2022) Today through Friday: Rain associated with a passing cold front has pushed well east of the area this morning.