Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
209 AM EDT Sun Aug 7 2022 A weak upper trof will cause an increase in coverage of showers and thunderstorms Sunday.
This activity should wane this morning as the low level flow veers and weakens.
This is in response to a building low-level ridge across the North Atlantic, counteracted by a tropical upper-tropospheric trough (TUTT) anchored just north of the Bahamas. From synopsis, high pressure across the southeastern United States will maintain moderate to fresh breezes across the Florida Keys coastal waters.
Forecast highlights in the short term period will be another day of cooler temperatures along with chances for showers.
1002 AM EDT Sun Aug 7 2022 High pressure east of Bermuda will bring seasonable heat and isolated to widely scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms over the next several days.
655 AM EDT Sun Aug 7 2022 Persistent high pressure centered near Bermuda will extend into the Southeast US through the beginning of the week. A cold front should move across the state in the middle of the week. This should keep most pops across western counties with the Piedmont trough and across the south with a sea breeze. Think that temperatures will come down a degree or two from yesterday's values, although most locations should still reach the lower 90s.
This synoptic pattern that we have seen for the past few weeks will persist through the short term with an upper level ridge spread across the southern CONUS. Highs today will be a couple degrees warmer than yesterday with highs in the low 90s along the coast, mid 90s along the I-10 corridor, and upper 90s across the north. Overnight lows will continue to be mild with temperatures in the mid to upper 70s for most of the area, and only into the low 80s along the coast.
(Rest of Today) An upper low is indicated in water vapor imagery and 4-2h streamflow analysis centered over western TN. The low is shifting west as a ridge pushes westward from the east-southeast CONUS. Favored locations may be in northwest AL into middle TN closer to the upper low, but outflow boundaries and the Cumberland Plateau may also serve as a focus as well.
353 AM MDT Sun Aug 7 2022 Sunny and calm conditions are expected the next few days as a series of high pressure systems exert influence on the region.
This front is expected to drift north this morning, as a low pressure system pushes into western Kansas and southern Nebraska. Dewpoints in the lower to mid 70s will allow heat indices to reach 100 to 105 by this afternoon.
634 AM CDT Sun Aug 7 2022 (Today and tonight) Broad upper level ridge will remain over our area today. 850 mb thermal ridge is slightly weaker compared to yesterday and with afternoon cloud cover the temperature may remain just below the century mark but it will be close.
(Sunday through Monday) Temperatures the next few days will remain near normal with widespread 90s and triple-digits confined to the lower RGV.
Cloud cover and scattered thunderstorms will keep temperatures along and north of I-72 a few degrees cooler than they were yesterday. Cold front will gradually settle southward into Illinois on Monday.
The longwave pattern over the region remains the same overnight - an upper level low spinning off the NorCal Coast and an upper level ridge of high pressure over the Four Corners/Desert SW region.
436 AM CDT Sun Aug 7 2022 Today through tonight: seasonably strong ridging aloft and moist southerly low level flow will maintain a very warm and humid airmass and a favorable diurnal convective regime over the forecast area this afternoon into early evening due to onshore flow and the potential for more seabreeze enhancement. Through much of the week, an upper ridge will be centered across the western part of the United States, with troughing across the east. Heading into the weekend, the pattern shifts some as the upper trough starts to push further east and we get a little more influence from the expanding upper ridge.
(Today and tonight) Broad upper level ridge will remain over our area today. 850 mb thermal ridge is slightly weaker compared to yesterday and with afternoon cloud cover the temperature may remain just below the century mark but it will be close.
This evening's thunderstorm activity across the lower deserts of Arizona and Sonora is a testament to the ongoing moisture surge. Storms will likely form first over the high country before pushing off to the west and impacting the low country.
Moving into Monday, a clean slate is expected as high pressure remains firmly in place over the northern Plains and, in tandem, upper level ridging begins to build into the central Plains. While the main lobe of upper level ridging looks to remain to the south of the FA, temperatures, nonetheless, will begin to warm up to near normal in the upper 70s to low 80s on Monday.
A more favorable flow pattern for daily thunderstorms will persist through this coming week as the upper high becomes centered over the Four Corners region. An inverted trough approaching from the east was helping sustain the scattered showers and thunderstorms overnight/ early this morning. The inverted trough will continue to influence the thunderstorm potential through the day. Otherwise, models continued to depict a favorable flow pattern for daily scattered showers and thunderstorms through much of this coming week as the upper high sets up over the Four Corners region.
The trough will quickly exit tonight and heights will rise again aloft with high pressure settling in at the sfc for Monday. For temperatures, this means today is expected to be cooler than normal with highs about 10 to 15 degrees below seasonal averages. This period looks to feature warmer temperatures, increasing levels of humidity and mainly dry conditions as an upper ridge builds into the region during the week.
515 AM MDT Sun Aug 7 2022 Sunny and calm conditions are expected the next few days as a series of high pressure systems exert influence on the region.
1031 AM EDT Sun Aug 7 2022 Morning sounding at the Cape continues to show a prevailing easterly flow in the low to mid levels below 500mb, and a PW value of 1. An approaching inverted mid-level trough/upper low should increase shower/storm activity some over the coastal waters through this afternoon. Temps will be a tad cooler aloft, around -7 to -8C at 500mb, with lingering drier air aloft, which could still lead to isolated stronger storms this afternoon.
621 AM EDT Sun Aug 7 2022 High pressure east of Bermuda will bring seasonable heat and isolated to widely scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms over the next several days.
Weather during the short term will continue to be influenced by a weak shear axis within a broad upper level ridge spanning from the central to eastern U. Similar to yesterday, this weakness in the ridge may help to focus slightly better coverage of shower and thunderstorm activity across portions of southwest Indiana and western Kentucky today. Monday appears to be largely a repeat of the weekend, with widely scattered mainly heat of the day storms, but slightly better chances begin to shift back into southeast Missouri and southern Illinois ahead of an approaching upper level trough.
403 AM CDT Sun Aug 7 2022 Summary: Cooler today, particularly near the Lake Superior shore. Drier Monday and a little warmer.
/86/ Prior discussion below: Today through tonight: seasonably strong ridging aloft and moist southerly low level flow will maintain a very warm and humid airmass and a favorable diurnal convective regime over the forecast area this afternoon into early evening due to onshore flow and the potential for more seabreeze enhancement. Through much of the week, an upper ridge will be centered across the western part of the United States, with troughing across the east. Heading into the weekend, the pattern shifts some as the upper trough starts to push further east and we get a little more influence from the expanding upper ridge.
522 AM EDT Sun Aug 7 2022 A weak upper trough will cause an increase in shower and thunderstorm coverage today with locally heavy rainfall possible.
637 AM CDT Sun Aug 7 2022 Summary: Cooler today, particularly near the Lake Superior shore. Drier Monday and a little warmer.
The subtropical upper level height ridge over the central plains will amplify and retrograde to the central Rockies by midweek. North-northwest flow aloft will develop over the Midsouth, between the upper ridge and a low amplitude upper trof over eastern Canada and the Great Lakes.
An upper level low persists about 350 mi off the coast through early this week.
555 AM CDT Sun Aug 7 2022 (Today through Monday) Although the inverted trough moves away across northern Mexico, the Subtropical Ridge will have a little less influence over our area than most of this summer.
911 AM EDT Sun Aug 7 2022 A weak upper trough will cause an increase in shower and thunderstorm coverage today with locally heavy rainfall possible.
518 AM MDT Sun Aug 7 2022 The trough that has been drawing moisture northward the past couple days is now directly north of western Wyoming, and will continue to sweep east today. The only remaining activity may be along the highest elevations of the Bighorn range and atop Casper Mountain, but these showers will be minimal and brief without added lift from the departing trough.
417 AM MDT Sun Aug 7 2022 Significantly cooler & drier air has worked into southeast Wyoming and the western Nebraska Panhandle over the last 12-24 hours, with H7 temperatures falling to between +8 and +12 deg C.
550 AM MDT Sun Aug 7 2022 Significantly cooler & drier air has worked into southeast Wyoming and the western Nebraska Panhandle over the last 12-24 hours, with H7 temperatures falling to between +8 and +12 deg C.
639 AM EDT Sun Aug 7 2022 A weak upper trough will cause an increase in shower and thunderstorm coverage today with locally heavy rainfall possible.
A combination of hot afternoon temperatures, upslope along the eastern edge of the Caprock, and an inverted trough rotating around the southern edge of an upper high to our north will promote the formation of isolated to maybe widely scattered thunderstorms over the area, with the best chance being over the southern half of the South Plains and Rolling Plains. At the surface, guidance continues to wobble with the location and strength of a cold front on Monday. With the increased moisture and cloud cover temperatures will be just a touch cooler as well on Monday with most locations topping out in the 90s.
Today through tonight: seasonably strong ridging aloft and moist southerly low level flow will maintain a very warm and humid airmass and a favorable diurnal convective regime over the forecast area this afternoon into early evening due to onshore flow and the potential for more seabreeze enhancement. Through much of the week, an upper ridge will be centered across the western part of the United States, with troughing across the east. Heading into the weekend, the pattern shifts some as the upper trough starts to push further east and we get a little more influence from the expanding upper ridge.
The increased coverage of convection may allow for temps to be a couple deg cooler. but due to slightly cooler temps.
910 AM EDT Sun Aug 7 2022 High pressure will extend across the region into the week. A cold front could approach from the north by the end of this week.
308 AM MDT Sun Aug 7 2022 MORNING DISCUSSION: An upper ridge pattern is still set to build across the western U.
Otherwise, a ridge of high pressure is building into the region with mostly clear skies, warming temps, and very light winds for the next several days.
(The rest of today ) Latest surface analysis indicates low pressure centered over ern CO with a fairly tight pressure gradient across the Srn Plains. This morning's upper air analyses indicated mid/upper level high pressure centered over KS.
157 PM MDT Sun Aug 7 2022 Sunny and calm conditions are expected the next few days as a strong upper-level high pressure system exerts influence on the region.
242 PM MDT Sun Aug 7 2022 Upper trough has exited the area, with clearing skies gradually building from west to east. Upper ridging axis will sit across the northern Rockies, ahead of a stationary upper low off the NW Pac coast.
Heavy rainfall continues to be the main concern, with freezing levels near 16,000 ft and a deep layer of moisture. Expect highs today on the cooler side with plenty of clouds, in the 70s to lower 80s (warmest in northwestern IA). Temperatures remain on the cooler side, in the mid 70s to lower 80s. Not much change to the flow pattern through the extended, as high pressure and ridging aloft builds across the southwestern CONUS, slowly sliding northeastward through the week. This keeps the upper level jet to our north, with the ridge axis overhead by late week.
(Today through Monday) Although the inverted trough moves away across northern Mexico, the Subtropical Ridge will have a little less influence over our area than most of this summer.
1130 AM MDT Sun Aug 7 2022 The trough that has been drawing moisture northward the past couple days is now directly north of western Wyoming, and will continue to sweep east today. The only remaining activity may be along the highest elevations of the Bighorn range and atop Casper Mountain, but these showers will be minimal and brief without added lift from the departing trough.
High pressure will remain in control of the weather for the next few days.
The low ceilings will be slower to scatter out across the high plains this morning. Significantly cooler & drier air has worked into southeast Wyoming and the western Nebraska Panhandle over the last 12-24 hours, with H7 temperatures falling to between +8 and +12 deg C.
(Monday through Sunday) Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible Monday into mid-week as a cold front manages to move into the area Monday night and linger for a couple of days in a weakened state as the eastern periphery of the upper level ridge breaks down. The heat will return late in the week and into the weekend as the upper level ridge builds back over the region. Cold front over nrn KS at this time expected to push southward today/tonight, and may reach far nern OK by the end of the forecast period.
A cold front associated with this trough is expected to approach the CWA tomorrow afternoon and bring greater chances for thunderstorm development. The latitudinal position of the front will help determine which areas see the highest coverage of thunderstorms in the FA during the afternoon. Locations that receive precipitation during the day will have slightly cooler afternoon temperatures but for the most part, high temps are expected to be in the 90s areawide.
Today and Tonight: A rather stagnant large-scale pattern will persist with upper low pressure spinning of NorCal and mid-level high pressure across the Four Corners and Desert Southwest. Seasonal temperatures will prevail for the coast and bays (highs in the 60s and 70s) with slightly cooler than average values farther inland (80s to lower 90s--outside of a few mid to upper 90s in far southern inland Monterey County). Minimal height/thermal changes in the low levels would argue for maintaining our rather deep (~2. Monday through Sunday: The upper low will gradually be drawn poleward by mid to late week as downstream ridging builds across the interior west. While residual troughing remains offshore, the upper ridge will exert more influence on our weather during this time.
315 PM EDT Sun Aug 7 2022 High pressure will prevail across the region through the week. A cold front could approach from the north by the end of this week. Lows will range from the lower-mid 70s inland with lower 80s at the beaches and Downtown Charleston. Deep Atlantic high pressure and weak upper flow will prevail through the short-term period. An upper low over Northern Florida will continue to shift south Monday. Highs will reach the upper 80s/low 90s Monday and will trend a couple of degrees warmer each day.
129 PM EDT Sun Aug 7 2022 Scattered thunderstorms, favoring that afternoon to evening hours, are expected until a mid-week cold front ushers in cooler, drier air ahead of the weekend. The region remains wedged between high pressure to the southeast and a weak trough over the Great Lakes, which is helping to maintain the funneling of moist gulf air into the region. Enough jet ascent with this trough should create a most focused area for convection north of Pittsburgh, while also providing faster eastward storm mean flow.
(This evening through Monday) Cirrus will continue to enter our area from the east near the nose of an upper jet, as a retrograding upper closed low on the southern fringe of an upper high enters AR. Late tonight to near sunrise, a cold front will approach the northern OK border. As the front sags southward a bit throughout the day, and the upper low continues to progress westward, widely scattered showers and thunderstorms should develop.
300 PM CDT Sun Aug 7 2022 Key Points: - A cold front will move into the area tonight bringing scattered showers and thunderstorms and cooler temperatures to start off the workweek. This axis of hot temperatures corresponds nicely with the placement of the 850-700 mb thermal ridge axis ahead of an approaching cold front. The upper-level ridge is directly over the region as noted in current water vapor imagery. This feature will bring a cold front into our area late tonight accompanied by scattered showers and thunderstorms. Cooler temperatures will move in behind the front and with several reinforcing waves moving through the flow, temperatures should hover around normal readings for much of the week. A cold front will be pushing down out of NE/IA overnight and start to approach terminals between 10-13Z Monday.
Tonight will be cool with lows mostly in the low to mid 50s. Monday will be much warmer as a developing west CONUS ridge works towards the area and advects warmer air aloft into the region. Expect highs Monday to range from the low 80s east to the low 90s west.
130 PM EDT Sun Aug 7 2022 Little change in the weather pattern is expected for much of the week, with high pressure from the western Atlantic into the southeast United States and a daily chance of showers and thunderstorms, especially each afternoon and evening.
An upper ridge will bring a couple of very warm days today and Monday, especially for the interior.
An extensive east-west ridge aloft, from the Four Corners area across the southern Plains to the North Carolina/South Carolina coast will remain in place through Monday. The western portion of this ridge will begin to build north into the Intermountain West on Monday. With the ridge axis north of our area and a relatively moist airmass (precipitable water values 1.
An upper level ridge will build into the area today, bringing warmer temperatures. Moisture will continue to increase over the next several days as a trough off the CA coast slowly approaches.
238 PM CDT Sun Aug 7 2022 Dry high pressure residing from eastern ND and central SD will continue to expand across the area. The 500mb trough over central ND through the western half of SD this afternoon will shift across MN by 06Z.
Today Currently, early this morning, an upper low is located over West Tennessee with a surface frontal boundary in the Upper Midwest. As such, diurnal heating and continued above normal moisture will all be sufficient for scattered to numerous convection, initially forming over the higher terrain.
245 PM EDT Sun Aug 7 2022 Available surface observations place high pressure centered off the Carolina coastline, with the ridge axis bisecting near the Florida- Georgia line. Aloft, an tropical upper-tropospheric trough (TUTT) extends from just north of the Bahamas southwestward into the southern Gulf of Mexico.
SHORT TERM (Now through Monday Night): A subtle inverted trough moving east to west across the region helped produce isolated to scattered showers and storms along the sea breeze this afternoon. Another subtle inverted trough passes overhead Monday along with precipitable water values (PWATs) remaining in the 1. The highest rain chances (around 30 percent) remains along the I-69E/US-77 corridor with lower chances the more west you go.
327 PM EDT Sun Aug 7 2022 High pressure east of Bermuda will bring seasonable heat and isolated to widely scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms over the next several days.
1158 AM EDT Sun Aug 7 2022 High pressure will extend across the region into the week. A cold front could approach from the north by the end of this week.
Cold front will begin to sweep slowly SE into the area Mon afternoon through Monday night with increased forcing likely to spark off more widespread convection.
Monday finds an upper-level ridge centered to our south building north into Wyoming. This ridge keeps conditions dry through Monday night. Wind will generally follow climatological diurnal patterns given the presence of the ridge.
212 PM EDT Sun Aug 7 2022 An upper level low will pass by to the south on Monday, supporting lots of clouds and plentiful afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms.
(Tonight) The upper low has moved east to near the MS River, with clusters of thunderstorms forming within the dry slot from NW AL into northwest middle TN. Overnight lows depending on the eventual high cloud canopy from today's storms, will be in the lower 70s. These could be warmer if clouds hang on tonight.
Despite an extremely weak/disorganized flow aloft induced by high pressure spreading back west through much of Kansas, a few diurnally driven thunderstorms, mainly isolated in nature, will be possible early this evening in vicinity of the aforementioned frontal boundary as it pushes through west central Kansas and into portions of southwest and central Kansas. Slightly lower temperatures are likely tonight as cooler air filters southward into western Kansas behind a weak cold frontal passage expected by daybreak Monday.
235 PM CDT Sun Aug 7 2022 A cold front was pushing southward across southeast Colorado and southwest Kansas. The severe threat should diminish by late this evening, but if thunderstorms can continue to generate on the cold front overnight, then they will likely bring areas of heavy rain. On Monday, the cold front is expected to be lingering in the southern Texas Panhandle, so again, this should provide a focus for added showers and thunderstorms through Monday night.
Currently, we have an upper high centered over the Central Plains and an upper wave moving east across the Dakotas. Later tonight, a few showers and perhaps some thunderstorms may redevelop across central IL ahead of an approaching cold front and in the vicinity of an 850 mb low level jet. The better chance will come with the cold front, which is expected to move from Galesburg late in the morning.
1128 AM CDT Sun Aug 7 2022 (Rest of Today) An upper low is indicated in water vapor imagery and 4-2h streamflow analysis centered over western TN. The low is shifting west as a ridge pushes westward from the east-southeast CONUS. Favored locations may be in northwest AL into middle TN closer to the upper low, but outflow boundaries and the Cumberland Plateau may also serve as a focus as well.
229 PM MDT Sun Aug 7 2022 Afternoon Update (2030Z): The continuance of mostly quiet weather, along with the warming trend this coming week, remains the highlight of the forecast, and is still well represented this afternoon from this morning. Cliff MORNING DISCUSSION: An upper ridge pattern is still set to build across the western U.
132 PM EDT Sun Aug 7 2022 High pressure east of Bermuda will bring seasonable heat and isolated to widely scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms over the next several days.
232 PM MDT Sun Aug 7 2022 An upper ridge is moving eastward to the Northern Rockies today. Once the ridge moves overhead it will largely be over the region for much of this week. As a result of the approaching ridge, much of the area is experiencing sunny skies this afternoon. There are some breezy conditions southeast of Billings this afternoon as winds mix down to the surface, but these breezes should dissipate this evening as the ridge moves in and winds aloft weaken.