Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
/Issued 418 AM CST Fri Jan 19 2018/ Upper ridge over the Panhandles today will move east tonight and Saturday. Developing low pressure to the lee of the Rockies will become established over southeastern and eastern Colorado later today through Saturday and should gradually deepen.
221 PM EST Fri Jan 19 2018 High pressure will move east through the southeast states this weekend.
A cold front moving eastward across the area will bring valley rain and mountain snow especially Saturday afternoon and evening.
230 PM MST Fri Jan 19 2018 Water vapor shows digging trof as it moves onshore the west coast, with broad sw flow across much of the western CONUS extending into the Northern Plains. Radar echoes extend eastward into southeastern MT and north central WY, but any precip reaching the ground is relatively light (outside of the higher elevations). Upper trof will continue to dig overnight as it progresses eastward, with upper low beginning to cut off over the Desert Southwest. Light snow will begin to spread into our western zones with northern stream trof working through the Northern Rockies. Splitting trof continues to work slowly eastward on Saturday with broad lift associated with right entrance region of jet and lower/mid level frontogenesis spreading across our area.
Potential MVFR conditions enter the forecast by around 12Z tomorrow as a push of warm air advection with a warm front will lift across the terminals.
244 PM EST Fri Jan 19 2018 With high pressure passing south of the area, a southwest flow will bring milder air through the weekend, with a warm front passing Saturday.
A warmer air mass is spreading into the area as temperatures this afternoon are currently in the lower to middle 50s. The increasing clouds, southerly winds, and warmer air mass will keep lows in the middle 30s to the lower 40s tonight.
Some middle and high clouds will inhibit mixing and keep it from getting warmer than it could be.
1254 PM EST Fri Jan 19 2018 High pressure will prevail through the weekend.
Cooler air will begin filtering in tomorrow afternoon and we will return to near normal conditions.
Low temperatures should range from the low/mid 20s across the far northeast/east/southwest to around 30 across the west and along the CO/KS border. On Saturday surface winds will start to shift to the northeast (along and north of the interstate) by 18z and a little further south by late in the day as some cooler air filters in from the northeast.
across the area while high pressure on the central Gulf coast provides northeasterly low level flow. High pressure north of the waters will provide prevailing northeast winds of 15 knots or less today.
212 PM CST Fri Jan 19 2018 Mostly sunny early this afternoon and finally above freezing area wide.
This welcomed push of warmer air has helped today's high temperatures climb into the upper 40s and possibly the lower 50s in places. These above average temperatures will continue into Saturday but will be slightly cooler than today as a low cloud deck and reduced visibility in drizzle move into the region from the south.
Air and surface road temperatures have risen well above freezing, so roads were becoming more wet and less slick. The majority of the energy with this trough will stay south of the area.
This in response to a large upper level trough offshore with several vorticies moving through it.
By Saturday night, a deep mid-level low will be digging into the southwest US while, at the surface, a low pressure continues to amplify in southeast Colorado.
A surface cold front will pass through tonight and by Saturday, temperatures will be noticeably a bit colder with highs in the 40s.
327 PM EST Fri Jan 19 2018 High pressure will provide for mainly dry and mild weather through the weekend.
Incoming upper trough will split today with the stronger part going well south of us, and the weaker part continuing a slight chance of snow showers in our mountains into Saturday. Today will be quite a bit cooler than yesterday, but only cooling to normal for mid-January. Saturday looks about two degrees cooler than today. However, these systems lack significant cold air limiting snowfall potential for the lower valleys.
223 PM EST Fri Jan 19 2018 High pressure to the south will dominate the weather through the weekend.
scattered high clouds should continue to pass through the region while the low clouds remain confined to far Southeast Oklahoma. Current thinking is that the low clouds should begin to spread over the CWA this evening.
/issued 1005 AM CST Fri Jan 19 2018/ High pressure remains centered over Alabama this morning. Southerly winds on the back side of the high have already warmed temperatures into the 30s across the Mid-South. /issued 301 AM CST Fri Jan 19 2018/ Temperatures are in the low to middle 20s across most of the Midsouth, likely cooling another 2-4 degrees by sunrise. Temperatures will warm quickly, with moist of the region above freezing before midday. Temperatures will remain above freezing for several days. still a little below normal at most locations, but much warmer than we have endured for most of 2018. Clouds will return to the Midsouth tonight as a low latitude trough tracks along the Gulf Coast.
A mid level trough is forecast to move onshore, reaching the western CONUS, tonight.
323 PM EST Fri Jan 19 2018 High pressure will prevail through the weekend.
With the moderating easterly flow, overnight lows will be 10-15 degrees warmer than last night. THIS WEEKEND: High pressure to our north slides east on Saturday, leaving the area under moderate low level easterly flow.
upper level ridging over the central portion of the country is beginning to flatten out ahead of a low pressure system set to move into the west coast today.
1138 AM CST Fri Jan 19 2018 High pressure to the east will maintain south winds around 5 to 10 knots across the region through the forecast period. /issued 1123 AM CST Fri Jan 19 2018/ Clouds looking to hold firm across the region today, as an upper low moves ovhd.
Low amplitude trough is currently residing over the Northern Rockies.
227 PM CST Fri Jan 19 2018 Closed upper low currently noted in wv imagery skirting across our srn areas, parallel to the nrn Gulf coastline, to continue ewd tonight. Models suggest that a few shwrs could accompany the low tonight/Saturday as it drifts ewd, with areas in its wake experiencing some light shwrs/drizzle. Sly sfc flow to continue increasing across our region through Saturday, as lee trof deepens ahead of an approaching upper trof over srn CA/NV.
with a 10 degree jump in an hour! With the ridge still overhead for the first part of Saturday, expect temps to top out in the 40s as mixing is slightly weaker.
Mid-level ridging temporarily builds over the area on Saturday allowing most areas to dry out and warm up. The only chance for rain will be confined to the Highway 77 corridor. Southerly flow in the low-levels begins to increase Saturday night in response to an upper low moving in from the west.
Still on track for a slightly cooler day Saturday, but still above normal for mid to late January.
Upper air analysis last evening showed a trough over Texas. At the surface, high pressure was centered to the east and winds were generally light from the southeast. This low level flow has brought in warmer, moister air. The upper level trough axis will swing across our CWA today and tonight. Saturday an upper level ridge will move in pushing any rain chances off to the east. This will bring a big warm up with high temperatures Saturday around 20 degrees warmer than Friday.
Temperatures are on the rise from morning lows in the lower to mid 20s.
Toward the surface, a sprawling 1029mb high pressure area was analyzed over interior southwest Alabama just west of Evergreen. The combination of gradual increasing clouds from west to east along with weak warm air advection will help keep overnight lows much warmer from previous nights with readings ranging from the upper 20's northwest to near the freezing mark southwest. Adhered to the cooler side of guidance overnight due to the continued trend of temperatures averaging cooler at night/warmer during the day as has been observed the past few days. The higher than usual temperature swings could be attributed to some influence by the persistently dry surface soil conditions as depicted in recent drought monitor outlooks. Dry conditions will persist through the short-term period as despite increased amounts of moisture aloft the lower levels remain too dry to support any precipitation.
Road temps are expected to warm a bit today to above freezing from the road temp forecasts, and with any precip very light dont foresee any issues.
1045 AM MST Fri Jan 19 2018 Current surface shows weak cold front across eastern Montana into northern Wyoming. Low level thermal ridge shifts east today as weak cold front slides through forecast area. Upper trof moving into western CONUS slides through the Rockies on Saturday, with cut off low developing over the four corners region.
A weak frontal boundary associated with an area of low pressure will bring northwesterly winds into the CWA today.
Warming trend will continue, with afternoon highs climbing into the low to mid 60s.
Late morning temps had risen above freezing across all of Mid TN. The high will be centered over the southeast states, so SSW are expected, mainly less than 10KT. Clouds from the lower Ms Valley will spread into the area late tonight and Saturday, with cigs above 3kft.
Conditions will improve around sunset this evening as low pressure moves away from the Lower Texas Coast and takes the precipitation with it. Dry weather with plenty of sunshine will then prevail for Saturday as building mid-level high pressure replaces the closed 500 mb low.
312 PM EST Fri Jan 19 2018 High pressure will push off to the east through tonight.
We have continued our warming trend with 09z temps generally 10-15 degrees warmer than this time yesterday.
Quiet weather for the region early this morning, save for some light south to southwest winds that are keeping us warmer than the past few nights.
Precipitation will slowly change over to all snow as temperatures drop to near freezing towards sunset. A storm system located across the Great Basin early Saturday evening, will track east overnight and exhibit a neutral tilt as a closed low develops just east of the Four Corners.
Today Through Saturday Night Cold air is leaving the building as Arctic high pressure departs toward the southeast United States. Clockwise flow around the high will provide a southwest wind, and a warming trend through the near term.
Low clouds across the Lower Mississippi Valley and Southern Plains will build north impacting much of southeast KS tonight. As a vigorous mid/upper trough moves over the Southern Rockies Sat. night, a cold front is progged to move south bisecting central KS during the overnight hours. As the pbl moistens late Sat night into early Sun morning we may see some areas of drizzle/freezing drizzle across portions of central KS.
947 AM MST Fri Jan 19 2018 Busy morning with freezing rain causing problems over much of south central Montana with many slide offs reported. The majority of the energy with this trough will stay south of the area.
A similar abrupt warmup is forecast Friday across the southwestern half of the area, as temperatures once again warm into the low 70s, with more limited 50s in central Kansas. Either way the surface winds will be strong post cold frontal, around 30 mph with gusts near 40.
853 AM EST Fri Feb 2 2018 Cold front was moving through the region this morning, and a line of light to moderate showers was moving along it, with a few sprinkles behind the boundary. Temperatures will be cooler today, with highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s across southeast Georgia and the mid 60s to lower 70s across northeast Florida. A few showers are possible ahead a cold front this morning into the early afternoon. Light winds this morning will become northwesterly and then northerly behind the cold front and increase to 10-15 knots with higher gusts. Winds are expected to increase to 20 to 25 knots out of the north behind a cold front this afternoon and continue through Saturday morning for offshore waters beyond 20nm offshore.
High pressure will build across the region offering dry conditions into Saturday.
First, for today high pressure scoots to the southeast with a warm front and associated low level warm air advection/isentropic upglide sliding in from the west this afternoon/evening. Meso models are the only ones that suggest there would be enough lift to work on the low level saturation (per bufkit soundings) to trigger snow showers. Tonight the warm front takes a more west-east orientation from southern MN into central WI later tonight. Current track favors keeping the higher chances along and north of I-90 with the Canadian more of an outlier, shifting higher chances south. 1 to 3 inches over a 24 hour period looking reasonable, with the higher amounts favored east of the Mississippi river.
Temps should reach the upper teens and lower 20s by late evening with low temps only a few degrees cooler (15-20 degrees) as clouds move in later in the overnight period as well as a weak return flow. For Saturday, expect a mostly cloudy but warmer day head of the next weather system. Highs should range through the lower 40s.
An exiting upper trough will keep showers across the e-central Oregon and w-central Idaho mountains through mid-morning.
Moisture levels ahead of the trough jump to near 4 g/kg at the 7H level while WAA ceases and light cold air advection sets in. All models indicated snowfall will continue into Saturday afternoon, though moisture levels were indicated to fall in the wake of the trough passage.
Cold advection in wake of yesterday's frontal passage in combination with increasing cloudiness ahead of an upper level disturbance will make for much cooler, below normal temperatures today.
Aloft, a large H500 trough was analyzed across the eastern third of the CONUS. As the upper trough continues pushing east, surface ridging will slide into the TN Valley and with southwesterly surface flow returning by Saturday.
The consensus is highs in the lower 60's with the GFS being the outlier putting highs around 66 for Medford in the 6z run. Decided to go with the consensus with highs in the lower 60's.
/issued 246 AM CST Fri Feb 2 2018/ Cold front has pushed well south of our region but a tight post frontal gradient remains with some stronger northeast wind gusts still being reported along and south of the I-20 Corridor.
Northerly flow has developed in wake of the cold front. Northerly flow behind the departing cold front will bring in cooler and drier air today. Temperatures will continue to fall this morning as the cooler air filters in from the north, but there will become a point later this afternoon where the temperatures level off. Coastal troughing looks to develop so conditions and deepen into a weak coastal low pressure. Warm front associated with the developing low moves through allowing temperatures to rebound a bit but still below average.
With the cloud cover, and increasing moisture, lows tonight will be 5 to 10 degrees warmer across the area.
Soundings suggest that if anything can make it to the ground that it could either be flurries or very light freezing drizzle. WV imagery this morning showing a well amplified ridge sitting off the west coast with Pacific moisture spreading sewd in the northern Plains. strong high pressure was in control over the cntrl CONUS. Models are in rather good agreement a broad upper level trof will prevail across the CONUS over the next several days. This large scale pattern will be favorable for another cold air intrusion into the lower 48 this weekend.
445 AM MST Fri Feb 2 2018 Main concerns through Friday will be with winds in the wind prone areas, then with increasing snow over the higher mtns. Warmer Friday as the cold surface airmass banked up against the mtns erodes east and warmer downslope flow ensues.
955 AM EST Fri Feb 2 2018 Surface cold front will move through the nrn FL peninsula this morning and progress southward across east central FL by late afternoon and evening.
The frontal boundary will stall over the region as high pressure slides eastward north of the region.
A strong upper level ridge of high pressure will remain anchored along the West coast for several more days and bring dry weather and well above normal afternoon temperatures to the central California interior. Blame it on a strong, resilient upper level ridge of high pressure that will remain parked along the West coast. The GFS is trying to break down this ridge by the second weekend of February by retrograding a closed low in the Great Basin southwestward into central or southern California, but this is an outlier to any of the other models, so it's being discounted.
608 AM EST Fri Feb 2 2018 A cold front currently crossing the forecast area will move offshore late this morning. High pressure along with cooler and drier air will briefly return to the region this afternoon through Saturday.
Atmosphere is VERY dendritic in the lower half of the atmosphere, so it shouldn't take much to produce precipitation.
555 AM CST Fri Feb 2 2018 High pressure is centered across MO/IA this morning with light NWly flow across AR. As this high moves east through the period, winds will gradually shift to the west with SWly winds at northern terminals after 03/00Z. Aloft, a large H500 trough was analyzed across the eastern third of the CONUS. As the upper trough continues pushing east, surface ridging will slide into the TN Valley and with southwesterly surface flow returning by Saturday.
The upper trough, combined with lake and terrain enhancement, should maintain snow showers at least into the afternoon. Increasing clouds are expected Saturday, in warm advection ahead of an approaching trough advancing out of the Plains.
High pressure will start to take over this afternoon, which will calm winds down and while it'll be cold, there will be plenty of sun. Unless it was 30 degrees warmer, you couldn't ask for a better day. Dry air settling into the region behind yesterdays passing cold front has swept precip and low clouds out the of the mid-state.
1005 AM EST Fri Feb 2 2018 Latest satellite imagery and observations show the cold front currently moving across the panhandle of Florida while light and variable winds prevail to the south. Temperatures will remain in the mid to upper 70s across the area during the day and start to cool down tonight into the mid 60s for the east coast and the low 50s interior. The frontal boundary will stall over the region as high pressure slides eastward north of the region.
538 AM CST Fri Feb 2 2018 Low clouds are impacting the lows this morning as they move east northeast across the area. Lows dropped into the low single digits over northeastern parts of the forecast area before the clouds moved in.
Early morning surface analysis had a cold front along the Gulf coast with a 1038mb high centered over western Missouri. This high will shift east southeast across the Tennessee valley today then become centered over the Carolinas by Saturday morning. This will maintain a cool dry airmass over our CWA that was ushered in last night by the cold front. Tonight a light northeast wind and high clouds will hinder radiational cooling but morning lows Saturday will be below freezing at most locations.
Northerly flow behind the departing cold front will bring in cooler and drier air today. Temperatures will continue to fall this morning as the cooler air filters in from the north, but there will become a point later this afternoon where the temperatures level off. Coastal troughing looks to develop so conditions and deepen into a weak coastal low pressure. Warm front associated with the developing low moves through allowing temperatures to rebound a bit but still below average.
1007 AM EST Fri Feb 2 2018 Latest satellite imagery and observations show the cold front currently moving across the panhandle of Florida while light and variable winds prevail to the south. Temperatures will remain in the mid to upper 70s across the area during the day and start to cool down tonight into the mid 60s for the east coast and the low 50s interior. The frontal boundary will stall over the region as high pressure slides eastward north of the region.
936 AM CST Fri Feb 2 2018 High pressure continues to build across the region this morning leading to cooler temps. Northerly flow has developed in wake of the cold front. Northerly flow behind the departing cold front will bring in cooler and drier air today. Temperatures will continue to fall this morning as the cooler air filters in from the north, but there will become a point later this afternoon where the temperatures level off. Coastal troughing looks to develop so conditions and deepen into a weak coastal low pressure. Warm front associated with the developing low moves through allowing temperatures to rebound a bit but still below average.
417 AM MST Fri Feb 2 2018 Upper level analysis shows a trough over the eastern CONUS, with northwest flow over the northern plains. At the surface, a warm front is draped across the CWA.
926 AM CST Fri Feb 2 2018 Mostly sunny skies will continue through the remainder of the day under high pressure.
We do expect the fog and stratus deck to shift northward early this morning as lee troughing begins to develop and south/southwest winds develop over metro Denver. Otherwise, warmer downslope flow should boost the Denver area and Palmer Divide temps well into the 50s today. We're not terribly confident in the amount of moisture but a Winter Weather Advisory may be necessary in the high country of northern Colorado for potential snow/blowing snow impacts later tonight into Saturday. The hemispheric flow pattern seems to be stuck in this pattern with a blocking ridge over Alaska and a deep trough over Hudson's Bay.
High pressure in place today with slightly warmer air moving into the region.
The possibility also exists of freezing rain/drizzle as the cold air first moves into an area.
Cold Canadian high pressure will continue to press southeast into the region today. The high will then begin to shift off to the east tonight/Saturday as the next system approaches from the west. It now appears that low pressure to our north will help continue to warm the lower levels of the atmosphere into Saturday night as precip moves in from the s/w along with a trof of low pressure. As a result, will likely not see surface temps drop significantly overnight, but some of our northern locations may get very close to freezing for awhile. Biggest concern may be for a period of sleet or freezing rain up along the I-64 corridor overnight with temps holding close to the freezing mark.
High pressure will build into the state tonight and and Saturday.
915 AM EST Fri Feb 2 2018 High pressure along with cooler and drier air overspreading the region through Saturday.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 38 23 47 37 / 0 0 10 80 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 33 18 45 34 / 0 0 10 80 Oak Ridge, TN 33 18 45 34 / 10 0 10 80 Tri Cities Airport, TN 29 14 43 31 / 10 0 10 60.
There, highs are expected to rise into the 30s to around 40 degrees, while cooler readings in the 20s will be found over the eastern CWA. For tonight, will be watching arrival of low pressure as it moves into western SD. In fact, have a feeling some of the low POPs across the southern CWA late tonight may have to be removed completely. Broad upper troughing will dominate the extended into the middle of the next work week. At the sfc, Arctic high pressure will settle in for the period starting Sat afternoon.
These warmer temperatures may be accompanied by elevated/critical fire weather conditions which is covered further in the discussion below.
The latest water vapor imagery loop shows a stationary Hudson Bay Low, along with a closed upper high in eastern Russia.