Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1249 PM CDT SUN JUN 26 2016 Stratocumulus clouds are developing a bit faster and farther south underneath the southern periphery of the circulation associated with the upper low located near Winnipeg this morning, so we have made a few adjustments to sky cover to bring clouds farther south through the afternoon/evening.
A secondary area could be in southwest OK and north TX as upper low cont to spin across west Texas. As we move forward through the work week, we see upper ridge shift back westward and northwest flow develop across the Southern Plains.
The upper ridge will retrograde to the west resulting in stronger northwest flow over our area by the middle to latter part of the coming week.
1214 PM CDT SUN JUN 26 2016 Cold front over eastern Nebraska/western Iowa will drop down toward the I-70 corridor by this evening. Despite the passage of the weak cold front today and tonight, 850 hPa temps will remain near 20 C which will still support highs near 90 degrees both today and Monday.
Look for typical summer weather to continue with very warm readings for inland spots with cooler temperatures near the coast. Very typical late June weather across our CWA today with some inland spots going well into the 90s while coastal locations are seeing a mix of sun and clouds along with much cooler temperatures. Minor warming can be expected the next couple of days as the ridge of high pressure overhead and across much of the southern US expands to the north.
A few storms and a bit warmer tomorrow. so with the ridge continuing to strengthen expect temps to be a bit higher tomorrow, in the lower to mid 90s over the Plains, and low 80s for the high valleys.
A deeper and stronger fetch around high pressure reconsolidating to our east should push our thunderstorm coverage up as we reinforce available moisture and draw in weak inflections around the high.
200 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016 A weak cold front will push east across the area tonight into Monday. High pressure and a drier and cooler airmass will then settle into the region through mid week. Southerly flow will allow for temperatures to climb into the lower 90s today. Issued a special weather statement for the high heat index values. Weak short wave energy will continue to work its way east across our area tonight as an associated weak cold front sags down across the region later tonight into Monday. Highs on Monday will be a bit cooler with highs in the mid to upper 80s.
The inverted trof so noticeable on vapor imagery just south of the AZ border developed an west-east deformation/stretching zone replete with considerable mid/high level cloudiness.
310 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016 Warm and dry under high pressure today. Cold front Monday.
348 PM CDT SUN JUN 26 2016 Showers and storms will continue through this afternoon and evening on the eastern side of a 500 mb ridge.
Quiet/dry/cooler weather will be the rule across the region through Monday night as high pressure builds in from Canada. Scattered- broken cumulus will be seen mainly northeast of I-94 Monday afternoon with cooler/cyclonic flow aloft, incoming PV anomaly and steeper lapse rates. Lows Monday night will feel a little chilly in the upper 40s to the lower 50s.
A frontal boundary will increase chances for showers and thunderstorms later tonight and Monday, with cooler temperatures expected by the middle of the week. A strong ridge of high pressure at the surface and aloft will continue very warm temperatures through tonight. The front will be exiting southeast across the region by afternoon, with diminishing rain chances except for the ridges. With expected sunshine behind the front and weak cold advection, expect max temperatures Monday in the mid to upper 80s outside of the ridges. Showers and storms will wane quickly Monday night in the ridges as the initiating boundary and most of the low-level moisture shift southeastward.
A reinforcing shot of cooler air will begin to move in from the north on Monday as a trough drops through the forecast area.
With an upper ridge in place over the desert southwest, northwest flow will occur across the western two thirds of the forecast area.
Expect even more as the backdoor cold front approaches with clouds and hopefully some rain heat index values should not meet criteria tomorrow and therefore lack the two day requirement we will hold off on a heat advisory at this time.
None of the meso models have had a great handle on the timing of the convection overall, but the SPC SSEO page was indicating the higher chance across this area this afternoon. Did opt to hold off on a flash flood watch given the higher guidance and uncertainty on afternoon and overnight convection. Therefore did opt to add VCTS later tonight, as cold front inches closer to the region and some of the meso models have this thought. This as the cold front is expected to cross the region late Monday and went -SHRA/VCTS by 16z to 17z.
Above normal temperatures and dry conditions across Northwest California will persist this week as a ridge of high pressure remains over the western United States. An upper level ridge continues to build over the western United States resulting in warming temperatures across the interior and a strong marine layer inversion near the coast.
An 'inverted' mid-level trough and associated PVA will approach the area from the north and east overnight, likely leading to additional showers and storms over the Atlantic, especially from the Cape northward. Frontal boundary north of the area weakens, while Atlantic ridge remains east of Florida. This will produce very light winds in the low levels with sea breeze boundaries developing along both coasts and steadily moving inland through the afternoon. Lows will continue to range from the low to mid 70s. Atlantic ridge extends westward into mid to late week, with ridge axis remaining south of central Florida as another weak front moves into the southeast U.
An upper ridge will bring sunny warm weather again on Monday.
209 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016 High pressure remains in control through Monday.
High pressure aloft will continue to build, leading to another round of hot temperatures for the first part of the week.
Mid level ridge shifts further south and west bringing to the area stronger but still weaker northwest flow aloft. It looks like the old front stays to the south and west of the area due to a stronger lee trough. A ridge will be centered near the Four Corners and trough near the Great Lakes with northwest flow aloft over the central plains.
A cold front moves in late tonight and on Monday, bringing an increased likelihood for thunderstorms and mvfr conditions by mid-to-late Monday morning.
245 PM EDT Sun Jun 26 2016 High pressure will move off the coast tonight.
High pressure is expected to shift north over the next couple of days as a weak disturbance moves east across northern Mexico.
241 PM CDT SUN JUN 26 2016 Surface warm front has pushed over into eastern Middle Tennessee at early afternoon with convection a little more concentrated along the Cumberland Plateau. Isolated to scattered convection working in from the west with upper ridge built up through the Lower Mississippi River Valley. Upper ridge buckles tonight and this will allow for mid and upper level trough to develop over eastern U. By 00z Monday evening front pretty much out of my cwa but scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms may linger north of front across the south half Monday night as upper trough appears to try and dig down into my area overnight Monday night.
1058 AM PDT SUN JUN 26 2016 The upcoming week be much warmer with summer-like conditions.
Otherwise, becoming mostly clear with lows in the lower 70s.
327 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016 High pressure will extend from the Northeast coast southwest through the Mid-Atlantic tonight, then retreat on Monday.
258 PM MDT SUN JUN 26 2016 Zonal flow has developed across the area behind the departing upper low now moving eastward north of the Great Lakes. Rockies high pressure ridge will remain southwest of the region, with the northern plains on the northern periphery and fast flow aloft. Mean ne pac upper trough will remain in place, ejecting weak disturbances into westerly flow. This will support periodic disturbances into the area as general easterly upslope flow remains in place in the low levels.
Low temperatures tonight will drop back down into the 60s(F) tonight with little change to the air mass across the high plains. Thunderstorm chances will exist nearly each day through the latter part of the week as upper level ridging builds across the Intermountain West, setting up a northwesterly flow aloft across the Western High Plains. As a prevailing southeasterly upslope flow continues to draw low level moisture into Kansas, a series of H5 vort maxima will cycle off the ridge axis into the high plains during the period setting the stage for diurnally driven thunderstorm development lee of the front range late each day. Storms are likely to drift off the higher terrain into western Kansas Monday evening.
A frontal system will bring a chance for showers and thunderstorms later tonight and Monday, with much cooler temperatures by the middle of the week. A strong ridge of high pressure at the surface and aloft will continue very warm temperatures through tonight. The front will be exiting southeast across the region by afternoon with diminishing rain chances except for the ridges. With expected sunshine behind the front and weak cold advection, expect max temperatures Monday in the mid to upper 80s outside of the ridges. Shower and thunderstorms chances return later tonight as a weak and slow moving cold front approaches and drags through the area.
At the surface, high pressure will build across the region overnight and Monday with lighter winds expected. Temperatures will be much cooler on Monday as this secondary wave will usher in cool Canadian air.
Remnants of the departed trough/storm system extend back into Saskatchewan and Northeast Montana this evening. the boundary between the cooler air of Canada and the hot high pressure dome over the desert Southwest will remain to the south of Nemont.
352 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016 A cold front will dissipate south of our area tonight into Monday.
212 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016 High pressure will extend from the Northeast coast southwest through the Mid-Atlantic for the remainder of the weekend.
1155 AM MDT SUN JUN 26 2016 Upper low is over Manitoba, with zonal flow across the western CONUS. With high pressure at the surface, winds are light and variable. An upper ridge will sharpen over the western CONUS today, which will begin to put the northern plains under northwest flow for the next several days. A backdoor cold front will slide into the region tonight, shifting light winds to the northeast. Monday will be slightly cooler, with highs in the mid 70s to mid 80s. With high pressure draped over the region, generally a dry and mostly sunny day is expected. Upper ridge axis will remain to our west through the week with generally W/NW flow through the nrn plains.
15Z temps are in the mid 80s but will reach the low to mid 90s again today. Winds should slowly increase out of the 230/250 degree range in advance of the cold front after 13z.
340 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016 High pressure across the offshore waters will continue to move east tonight.
220 PM PDT SUN JUN 26 2016 The upcoming week be much warmer with summer-like conditions.
Meanwhile, out west, the usual daytime heating/destabilization is taking place over the higher terrain, w/upslope flow spawning afternoon convection. As the TUTT heads south, this will allow the upper ridge covering the srn CONUS to center/strengthen over the Four Corners area into the extended. This will allow the low-lvl theta-e ridge to remain out west for the next couple of days, promoting convection over the higher terrain each day.
256 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016 Backdoor cold front moved into the region this morning, which has sparked numerous to widespread convection. Overnight lows are forecast to be in the low to mid 70s. The weak boundary is forecast to push to near the FL/GA border overnight, and a weak trough over the Atlantic waters east of Georgia is forecast to drive much drier low/mid level air down the coast and into southeast Georgia and portions of northeast Florida tonight and Monday. Temperatures will be hot with highs in the low to mid 90s, except upper 80s near the coast.
408 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016 A weak cold front will push east across the area tonight and early Monday.
246 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016 Warm and dry under high pressure today. Cold front Monday.
A secondary cold front has dropped across eastcentral ND and northern MN through the early afternoon. with temperatures ranging from the middle 60s near the Lake of the Woods to the lower 70s near the South Dakota line.
539 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016 High pressure ridging into the forecast area from the northeast will weaken Monday. Moisture will increase Monday night ahead of a cold front.
632 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016 Broad high pressure will remain across the area through Monday.
Warmth will build once again over the weekend as a broad ridge of high pressure strengthens and expands over much of the country. This ridge will prevent any precipitation through the weekend.
However, temps have warmed up towards 90 degrees as of 16Z even with scattered to broken cloud cover in place ahead of the cold front. The cold front is currently draped across the TN border and will progress southward throughout the day. The higher chance of precip will be along and south of the TN River this afternoon with a strong to severe storm possible. This is due to the steep low-level lapse rates, plentiful CAPE, 2 inch PWATS and mid-level dry air in place ahead of the approaching cold front. as a cold front moves southward across the region.
Convective temperatures should be out of reach in most places and the low-level inversion is currently sitting right around 3000ft allowing some moisture pooling with the continued onshore flow. Once we see some better mixing, though not the extent we've had the past few days with the gusts, temperatures look to end up slightly warmer than yesterday as dewpoints mix out into the low to mid-70s. Upper level ridge will slowly shift west and strengthen.
717 AM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016 Morning analysis has upper level ridge dominating the plains. A trough off the pac NW coast with another one over New England and the mid Atlantic. Clear skies with generally light winds, however temps remain very mild due to the thermal ridge over the region. a trough is positioned from a low in S Dakota to the sw towards the front range. A cold front is still to the west. Behind the trough yet ahead of the cold front along with a low level jet will continue to bring the chance for thunderstorms. A strong area of upper level high pressure continues to dominate the weather across western and north central Nebraska, as well as much of the central and southern plains and desert southwest.
models are forecasting a back door cold front currently across eastern Missouri to make it all the way across Missouri by tonight. While the upper level high continues to dominate the weather across the area.
High pressure will dominate the area today with only some sct shallow cu expected. The dry air will be associated with high pressure building south into Illinois from the western Great Lakes. Strong mid and upper level high pressure ridge is expected to expand from the Southwest U.
Broad 500 mb high pressure centered over the state of Chihuahua in neighboring Mexico and New Mexico in the United States will remain extended over Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley, preventing the formation of any showers or thunderstorms. Near to well above normal temperatures will be guaranteed due to the lack of rainfall, limited cloudiness, and the proximity of the mid-level high pressure system.
1043 AM EDT FRI JUN 17 2016 A large high pressure system, will continue to build over the region, through the weekend. By Sat night an impressive upper level ridge will be centered over the desert southwest and a mid-lvl ridge will be centered over much of the eastern CONUS.
Upper level ridge will strengthen over the Southern Rockies today, pushing 850 mb temperatures up a couple more degrees.
Mid/upper level ridge will again be the main weather player, and this will help preclude any significant convection from forming, and with less cloud cover, air temperatures will rise into mainly the mid 90s. Changes to the pattern will begin over the weekend, as the mid/upper level ridge retrogrades to the west/northwest and away from the forecast area.
940 AM MDT FRI JUN 17 2016 Current MSLP pressure has deep low pressure system over southeast Colorado keeping increased winds in from the NNE. mostly over the higher terrain of the mountains to start then the northeastern plains. Upper level ridge axis will roughly extend from El Paso to Minneapolis today. There is a weak trough embedded in the southwest flow over eastern Colorado. This will bring slightly cooler temperatures today and increase low level moisture. Thinking the warm mid levels and cooler surface temperatures will make it difficult for thunderstorms to form today and tonight. A strong upper level ridge will be oriented southwest to northeast across CO through the weekend.
By Saturday morning, the short wave trough will have pushed the surface cold front into far south Alabama. This may develop an inverted trough and convergence slightly farther north near the Mississippi state line.
Today Through Saturday Night A cold front currently stretching from Mid-Atlantic Coast, through Southern Kentucky and up into the Plains, continues to approach the the Natural State. A drier, less humid, slightly cooler air mass will settle over the region for the weekend as a broad upper high centered over the plains increases upper level heights in our region.
roughly aligned with axis of a theta e ridge. However, a warm front across southeastern SD into southwestern MN will lift north early Saturday morning with convection forming across east central SD this evening.
Cold front will continue pushing across the mid-state this morning and out of the region later today.
Furthermore, despite the high moisture, KTBW sounding revealed a surprising amnt of dry air abv H70 that very well may enhance downdraft potential. Amplified WX pattern conts acrs the US with a mid/upr lvl trof dominating the SE CONUS. Interaction with the Atlc ridge over the Greater Antilles/NW Carib has generated a brisk W/SW flow thru the column that will prevent the formation of the east coast sea breeze this aftn. position of the the southern extent of the trough will place central FL on its ascending flank. MCS over the FL Big Bend this mrng was sparked by the mid lvl short wave trof. However, cooler temperatures aloft will support storms with the potential to produce frequent cloud-to-ground lightning strikes, wind gusts between 40 and 50 mph, and small hail.
WHICH IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT WAVE EMBEDDED IN SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF AN OFFSHORE LONG WAVE TROUGH. BUT MORE WAVES WILL FOLLOW THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS THE LONG WAVE TROUGH EDGES CLOSER TO SHORE. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE ONSHORE SATURDAY MORNING AS A STRONG SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH IT. ONCE THE TROUGH KICKS OUT TO THE EAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON. IT WILL WARM AND DRY OUT RAPIDLY AS A THERMAL TROUGH DEVELOPS NEAR THE COAST.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 92 69 89 65 / 10 10 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 86 66 87 60 / 10 10 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 87 67 87 61 / 10 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 80 60 84 55 / 30 20 0 0.
The dry air will be associated with high pressure building south into Illinois from the western Great Lakes. Strong mid and upper level high pressure ridge is expected to expand from the Southwest U.
/issued 338 AM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016/ An expansive upper level ridge today will lead to even warmer temperatures area wide but likely shy of record levels. Furthermore, the ridge will act to suppress any convective development on top of the low level convergence along the dryline. Upper level high pressure will expand northward Saturday to near the classic 4-corners position.
The upper ridge was in place this morning over the Central Plains. Tonight, there is some weak convergence across central Kansas within the low level jet and near a surface front. The more easterly winds do however bring a slightly cooler as well as drier airmass in and the potential for extreme heat index values continues to wane.
1254 PM EDT FRI JUN 17 2016 Aviation The weekend will be very warm and dry with sunny skies as high pressure dominates our weather.
/Today/ Large area of high pressure extending from Southern Ontario and south into Northern Illinois and Northeast Iowa.
Hot temperatures and high pressure will be the main concerns at the inland terminals through the late afternoon period. An 850 mb ridge was located over the northwest gulf and 850 mb temps were 24c at CRP and 22C at LCH. The upper ridge begins to push N-NW towards the 4 corners region. This creates just enough of a weakness for a weak inverted trough to undercut the ridge and slide into SE TX. A weak upper level disturbance on the periphery of the ridge will try to sneak into the region Saturday afternoon and have added PoPs for the eastern half of the region late in the day.
1104 AM EDT FRI JUN 17 2016 Update/Marine The weekend will be very warm and dry with sunny skies as high pressure dominates our weather.
740 AM EDT FRI JUN 17 2016 Aviation The weekend will be very warm and dry with sunny skies as high pressure dominates our weather.
622 AM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016 Upper level ridge axis leaning over the Great Lakes over the next couple days.
742 AM EDT FRI JUN 17 2016 A cold front will push southeast through the region today and tonight.
511 AM MDT FRI JUN 17 2016 Upper level analysis has ridge dominating the weather pattern across the central CONUS with troffing across the Pacific Northwest. The breezy north to northeast winds will bring slightly cooler temps into the area, with highs mainly in the 80s. Saturday, upper level ridge will rebuild across the northern plains bringing well above average temperatures back to the area. Upper ridge remains across the area through Saturday night, with temperatures only cooling into the 60s and 70s across the SD plains. As a quick moving upper trough moves through Canada, a cold front at the surface will push through the northern plains.
A weak cold front will slip across the plains this morning.
858 AM PDT FRI JUN 17 2016 A deep low pressure system will remain near on the Washington and Oregon coast. Expect cool and wetter conditions late tonight into Saturday with most areas will experience showers, as the low pressure system moves through the region.
The remainder of the forecast looks to be in good shape with another steamy day on tap with a back door cold front still coming in later today and tonight for some relief. Today Through Saturday Night A cold front currently stretching from Mid-Atlantic Coast, through Southern Kentucky and up into the Plains, continues to approach the the Natural State. A drier, less humid, slightly cooler air mass will settle over the region for the weekend as a broad upper high centered over the plains increases upper level heights in our region.
The cold front is currently moving through the area with northerly winds expected today.
948 AM EDT FRI JUN 17 2016 The pattern aloft this morning features a large and strong ridge across the central part of the country followed by a trough across much of the east coast, with its axis extending southward over Florida. At the surface, an area of low pressure is centered just off the coast of the Carolinas with a frontal boundary extending into the southeast. High pressure over the Atlantic extends westward to the south of the state and into the Gulf of Mexico. The high pressure axis south of the state along with a front approaching from the north will keep a westerly flow in place through today and most of Saturday.
Upper-level ridge to maintain mainly dry conditions today with southwest winds around 5 to 10 mph.