Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
550 PM EST Tue Dec 12 2017 Cold and windy conditions are expected tonight in the wake of a strong cold front. High pressure will briefly build in to the area Wednesday. Still expect temperatures to tumble shortly as upstream locations have experienced hourly temperature drops of 5-8 degrees within an hour of the passage of the 925-850mb trough.
Widespread low stratus and fog in the lower valleys, with MVFR/IFR/LIFR conditions, will persist through Wednesday.
711 PM CST Tue Dec 12 2017 For the 00Z TAFs, a cold front will move across the terminal sites Wednesday morning with gusty north winds in its wake from mid to late Wednesday morning through much of the afternoon hours. There may be a brief period of local wind shear on the order of 35 knots at around 1000 feet at the TAF sites immediately preceding the cold frontal passage. The closed mid-level ridge over Nevada is expected to slowly fill and migrate west.
High pressure will remain over the region for the next several days with continued dry weather. Very dry easterly flow aloft continues this afternoon as the rex block pattern of high pressure to the north and low pressure to the south of the Central California Interior continues. High pressure aloft has really locked in an inversion at elevations ranging from 4500 to around 7500 feet over the entire area and below this inversion there is very little mixing of air. Forecast models keep the ridge in place over the region for the next several days, and shunt any incoming Pacific weather systems well to the north.
It's associated cold front is still expected to move into the Denver area around sunrise, with increasing clouds over the northwest in the afternoon ahead of a stronger system in the northern Rockies dropping into the Front Range Wednesday night. Upper ridge upstream of Colorado will lead to a pleasant evening and into the overnight hours. A weak short wave trough will move across the northern Plains early on Wednesday and force a cold front south across the Plains of Colorado. Chances of precipitation increase significantly Wednesday evening in the mountains (and eventually Plains) as a short wave trough moves quickly south-southeast towards central Colorado. The trough will dig south given a 100-120 kt jet on the backside of the trough.
We have freezing fog included for areas farther northeast across the Snake Plain, but we didn't issue any headlines for now.
Jefferson/Clarion/Forest/Venango/Mercer will keep their respective warnings/advisories with a possible narrow Huron fetch developing as low pressure continues east, flow becomes more favorable and inversion heights stay high enough overnight.
Under clear skies, light winds and low dewpoints, effective radiational cooling processes overnight favors lows dipping to near freezing or a few degrees below freezing over the interior.
The 5 pm subjective surface analysis showed a polar cold front across central FL, and an arctic front from NJ through central AL. Vapor imagery and upper air data showed a deep long wave trough axis from the eastern Great Lakes to just off the FL east coast. With the trough axis now to our east, the core of the arctic air will remain well to our north. Lows will be in the lower 30s, except mid to upper 30s in the aforementioned, normally warmer locations.
/issued 614 PM CST Tue Dec 12 2017/ A weak cold front will bring a wind shift to all TAF sites on Wednesday. Cooler and less breezy than yesterday, Tuesday has remained calm, with afternoon temperatures slowly creeping into the lower 50s through 2 PM.
548 PM CST Tue Dec 12 2017 Quiet weather tonight with west southwest winds ahead of a strong cold front that moves into the area on Wednesday as an Alberta clipper moves out of the northern Plains.
VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours, as SW flow veers to NW as a weak cold front approaches, with a few high clouds. Minor short wave troughs embedded within the mean flow will maintain a parade of cold frontal passages over west Texas and southeastern New Mexico.
Light winds will become south-southwesterly and begin to increase near 12Z-15Z ahead of a cold front that will move through between 16-18Z. Winds will veer around to more northwesterly behind the cold front with mid-level cloud deck building in.
1021 PM EST Tue Dec 12 2017 High pressure and reinforcing cold air will be moving into the region this overnight through Wednesday.
Cooler conditions are anticipated Wednesday afternoon as heights lower across the region. Expect the low levels to see rain and the mountains could see around an inch of new snow above 6/7000 feet.
727 PM EST Tue Dec 12 2017 High pressure and reinforcing cold air will be moving into the region this overnight through Wednesday.
Light freezing rain and/or snow are possible across portions of northern and central North Dakota Wednesday morning as dry air aloft moves in and limits ice production. However, with very little lift within the low level saturated layer generally only a shallow stratus layer is expected with perhaps patchy light precipitation at times.
SW winds will increase by midday Wednesday to 12-17 kts in advance of another dry cold frontal passage Wednesday evening. The low wind speeds, clear skies and relatively dry air will allow for temperatures to drop from the 30s to around 40 degrees across the region.
253 PM PST Tue Dec 12 2017 High pressure will remain over the region for the next several days with continued dry weather. Very dry easterly flow aloft continues this afternoon as the rex block pattern of high pressure to the north and low pressure to the south of the Central California Interior continues. High pressure aloft has really locked in an inversion at elevations ranging from 4500 to around 7500 feet over the entire area and below this inversion there is very little mixing of air. Forecast models keep the ridge in place over the region for the next several days, and shunt any incoming Pacific weather systems well to the north.
630 PM EST Tue Dec 12 2017 WV imagery and RAP analysis indicated a mid/upper level trough over the wrn CONUS and a trough from nrn Quebec into the Ohio Valley resulting in nnw flow through the wrn Great Lakes. MVFR ceilings will prevail for a time tonight once the low clouds at KCMX lift, but MVFR will return as the snow arrives ahead of the clipper system, with the lowest ceilings expected during the late night and early daylight hours.
352 PM MST Tue Dec 12 2017 Yet another pleasant day on tap thanks to the high pressure to our west while temperatures are running anywhere from 1 to 6 degrees warmer than yesterday.
Strong upper-level ridge of high pressure remains in control of the region.
A cold front will bring a northerly wind shift through the terminals around midday on Wednesday. /issued 303 PM CST Tue Dec 12 2017/ Atmosphere will undergo a significant change from the blocking pattern over the western Conus that we've seen for the past few days with a more progressive pattern evolving.
Therefore, will keep precipitation chances on the low side. Light freezing rain and/or snow are possible across portions of northern and central North Dakota Wednesday morning as dry air aloft moves in and limits ice production. However, with very little lift within the low level saturated layer generally only a shallow stratus layer is expected with perhaps patchy light precipitation at times.
517 PM CST Tue Dec 12 2017 The main concern for the short-term forecast continues to be the high fire danger for tomorrow. Conditions will become windy, both ahead of a weak front/trough and even more so in the wake of that feature.
Some token low end PoPs linger over the weekend with the passage of a longer wave trough, but the primary low level baroclinicity will stay well removed to our south. The GFS and ECMWF do hint at a pattern shift beyond the valid period with western CONUS trough development and a transition to SW flow aloft, but does not look to mature enough for much precip through the end of the next work week.
958 PM EST Tue Dec 12 2017 Cold and windy conditions are expected tonight in the wake of a strong cold front. High pressure will briefly build in to the area Wednesday. The strong cold front has shifted to the east of the area this evening, with gusty northwesterly winds in its wake and mostly clear skies. Expect lows tonight will generally range from the lower 20s NW to the upper 20s S/SE.
310 PM MST Tue Dec 12 2017 Upper ridge upstream of Colorado will lead to a pleasant evening and into the overnight hours. A weak short wave trough will move across the northern Plains early on Wednesday and force a cold front south across the Plains of Colorado. Chances of precipitation increase significantly Wednesday evening in the mountains (and eventually Plains) as a short wave trough moves quickly south-southeast towards central Colorado. The trough will dig south given a 100-120 kt jet on the backside of the trough.
525 PM EST Tue Dec 12 2017 High pressure and reinforcing cold air will be moving into the region this afternoon through Wednesday.
1037 AM EDT Wed May 17 2017 An upper level low centered over Cuba remains nestled beneath the apex of a mean layered ridge centered just east of the Carolina coasts. Temperatures are in the lower to mid 80s and dewpoints have flatlined near 75.
708 AM EDT Wed May 17 2017 Strong upper level ridge will produce near record high temperatures today. A cold front will drop across the area late Thursday kicking off scattered thunderstorms and ushering in more seasonal conditions.
/ISSUED 400 AM CDT Wed May 17 2017/ An upper level low can be seen on water vapor satellite imagery over far southeastern Colorado/far southwestern Kansas. This system is moving northeast while the next upper level low over eastern Oregon is digging southeastward. The first upper level low will continue to move northeast across Kansas and into Iowa by tonight. Subsidence in the wake of the upper level low should result in rather quiet weather this afternoon and tonight.
1026 AM CDT Wed May 17 2017 Continue to watch progression of low pressure across the plains as rainfall continues moving northward. This high pressure continues to sink south Thursday, and despite the associated partial clearing, cold advection means that temperatures will again struggle to reach low 60s Thursday. Guidance lows for some locations are in the 30s, so will continue to watch for the potential for frost though timing means everything as we will also see a low lifting from the south, with isentropic upglide resulting in increased mid/high cloud cover hopefully saving us from dropping too close to the freezing mark.
An upper level low pressure area and trailing trough of low pressure was lifting to the Northeast over the Pan Handles of Texas and Oklahoma and into Southwest Kansas this morning. Southwest flow aloft will continue to deepen across the Southern Plains as another closed upper low, over the Northwest part of the country drops toward the Four Corners Region, where it becomes cut off from the Northern Stream and keeps a series of disturbances rounding its base and ejecting to the Northeast to continue our chances for convection through the end of the week. The Four State Region will see an increase in convection for the weekend as the upper low starts to eject out into the Plains and nudges a cold front into the forecast area.
927 AM PDT Wed May 17 2017 Remnant moisture and instability from a low pressure tracking through southern Idaho will lead to scattered showers and a few thunderstorms today.
An upper level low will pass to our north and east today bringing strong north winds across portions of southern Great Basin, chance for showers in northern Lincoln and Mohave Counties today and tomorrow, and keep temperatures 8 to 10 degrees below normal. Band of moisture associated with the upper low and cold front located across Lincoln, northern Mohave and far northern Clark Counties so far has not produced any measurable precipitation, at least where gauges are located.
Temperatures this morning got close to freezing in portions of the Illinois Valley and outlying areas in the Rogue Valley. The latest visible image shows clouds banked up along and north of the Umpqua Divide and east of the Cascades, especially in eastern Klamath and Lake Counties due to wraparound moisture from the departing upper low that brought cool and showery conditions to our area yesterday. The afternoon will be dry as upper ridging starts to build into the area and the upper low to our east continues to move away. These clouds will cause obscurations over the higher terrain into the early afternoon. Mountain wave clouds and associated turbulence will persist this morning across the Cascades and across the higher terrain of northern Klamath and Lake Counties.
/issued 239 AM CDT Wed May 17 2017/ Warmer night across the Midsouth. with current temperatures running in the low to mid 70s under mostly clear skies.
GAH PREVIOUS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION: Upper low will move southeast out of Washington early this morning across Idaho today and to Utah and Colorado tonight and Thursday. A rain shield to the northeast of this low will reach as far east as Chinook, Zortman, and Miles City today. Meanwhile, a tight surface gradient between high pressure in Saskatchewan and low pressure in Wyoming will create gusty east winds today. The east winds will bring very dry low level air which combined with an upper ridge over the area will limit the northeast extent of the rain shield.
It will be another quiet TAF period with high pressure in control. With the strong ridge of high pressure in place.
The unseasonally cold storm system pushed a strong cold front across northern and central utah overnight and early this morning with the current position stretching from Cedar City to about Moab. A broken band of moderate to heavy precipitation (rain and snow) continues to be associated with the cold front over the western valleys and southern mountains at this time, while scattered showers are more common with the front east of the mountains.
Strength of gradient winds ascd with proximity of high pressure to the region will reach a maxima late today and begin to diminish later tonight.
High pressure remains situated off the East Coast while a deep low develops over the Great Plains.
544 AM MDT Wed May 17 2017 The low pressure system over southwest Kansas will lift northeastward along a stationary front into eastern Nebraska by late this afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms will lift out of the forecast area by this afternoon as the low lifts into Nebraska. Additional showers are expected to move into the western sections of the forecast area overnight ahead of the next low pressure system due to move east of the Rockies by late in the week.
942 AM EDT Wed May 17 2017 Strong upper level ridge will produce near record high temperatures today. A cold front will drop across the area late Thursday kicking off scattered thunderstorms and ushering in more seasonal conditions.
655 AM CDT Wed May 17 2017 12Z TAFS A robust low pressure area centered over southern Kansas this morning will result in a gradually tightening pressure gradient over the area. /issued 415 AM CDT Wed May 17 2017/ Late night sfc analysis shows high pressure centered off the Carolina coast providing for a srly low-level flow over the forecast area. The combo of the high with low pressure over the srn Plains, as well as 30+ knot winds just off the sfc per KLCH VWP, are keeping our winds elevated this morning. Small rain chances spread ewd across the remainder of the forecast area for Thursday as the mid/upper-level ridge gets shoved farther with daytime heating serving as the main initiator for convective development.
743 AM EDT Wed May 17 2017 High pressure centered just off the southeast Atlantic Coast will provide mainly fair dry weather through Thursday.
A series of low pressure systems will move through the Desert Southwest the remainder of the week, bringing cooler temperatures, breezy conditions, and a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms to the higher terrain of eastern Arizona. For today, mostly clear skies are forecast over our area, southeast CA to south central AZ, with a warmer afternoon over yesterday, but still below normal. As it approaches today, a cold front will move into far northern AZ by evening. However, a slight chance of afternoon instability showers or thunderstorms are possible over the highest terrain of zone 24, southern Gila County bordering the White Mtns Thursday afternoon. Therefore afternoon temperatures on the lower deserts today and Thursday will settle in the mid to upper 80s, 6 to 8 degrees below normal.
/issued 655 AM CDT Wed May 17 2017/ 12Z TAFS A robust low pressure area centered over southern Kansas this morning will result in a gradually tightening pressure gradient over the area. /issued 415 AM CDT Wed May 17 2017/ Late night sfc analysis shows high pressure centered off the Carolina coast providing for a srly low-level flow over the forecast area. The combo of the high with low pressure over the srn Plains, as well as 30+ knot winds just off the sfc per KLCH VWP, are keeping our winds elevated this morning. Small rain chances spread ewd across the remainder of the forecast area for Thursday as the mid/upper-level ridge gets shoved farther with daytime heating serving as the main initiator for convective development.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 90 68 86 68 / 0 10 20 30 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 89 66 85 67 / 0 10 20 20 Oak Ridge, TN 89 66 86 67 / 0 10 20 30 Tri Cities Airport, TN 88 62 84 63 / 0 10 20 20.
The center of the upper low that is bringing this unsettled weather is currently over southeastern Idaho, and the wrap around moisture will be impacting the area today. Upper low in sern ID moving se. Snow level at the surface or 4000 feet MSL near the upper low, 5000-6000 feet MSL with increasing distance from the low. Upper level low pressure system is directly over the central mountains of Idaho area this morning will shift east into Eastern Idaho this afternoon. Showers will continue through Thursday, mainly in the higher terrain of Southwest Idaho as the low slowly moves southeast into Colorado.
1137 AM EDT Wed May 17 2017 Strong upper level ridge will produce near record high temperatures today. A cold front will drop across the area late Thursday kicking off scattered thunderstorms and ushering in more seasonal conditions.
KLRD will be VFR by 18Z if not sooner, given the movement of the trough with KLRD on the back side. With fairly respectable theta-e ridge over the area this morning, am going to keep the 20/30 POPs this morning (highest north), then diminish them in the afternoon as expect better chances for rain will only exist NE of area. Some of the models are going rather cool over the NE areas today (keying too much on convection I believe) so am going to go warmer than that. No showers in the forecast at this time, as the better theta-e ridge stays inland through the period, although some showers could approach the coastal areas through mid afternoon.
831 AM EDT Mon Jun 12 2017 High pressure will remain to the Northeast of the region Today, with a moist airmass in place.
930 AM CDT Mon Jun 12 2017 A warm and humid airmass prevailing across the Southeast and a weaker (slightly cooler) cap (~700 mb) noted on area RAOBs will increase the potential for primarily diurnally driven thunderstorms this afternoon. Overall wx pattern remains fairly stagnant into the middle of the week, with the subtropical ridge remaining in place over the srn Atlantic while upper ridging continues to build across the region.
Ceilings should slowly lift back into the low VFR range by late morning. /issued 231 AM CDT Mon Jun 12 2017/ Low-level moisture to increase today with dewpoints forecast to climb into the lower 70s. Afternoon high temperatures forecast to climb into the mid to upper 80s with heat index values in the low to mid 90s. Upper-low to gradually diminish with ridging to build in its place over the next couple of days. Afternoon showers and thunderstorms to become isolated by midweek as mid and upper-level ridge become fully established.
/issued 405 AM CDT Mon Jun 12 2017/ SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday): South Texas will remain between the weak cutoff lo along the SE Texas coast and the H5 ridge trying to build into the region from the west. Southeast winds at the surface continue to bring shallow moisture into the lowest layers, but still not enough today for anything more than scattered clouds. Tuesday will be a conflict between deep dry air aloft and the arrival of some dense moisture in the lower levels.
Main forecast challenge today will be thunderstorm chances given the slight risk over most of the cwa and a good chunk of enhanced to the northwest and moderate over the Pine Ridge of northern Sheridan County. Deep trough to the west over Nevada early this morning with upper jet and diffluence aloft already sparking off thunderstorms from northern Wyoming into Montana and northwest South Dakota. Substantial moisture moving northwest into western Nebraska with td's in the mid to upper 60s with good upglide flow to the north of the low. Timing of stronger wave moving out of the upper low will bring chances for precipitation over western Nebraska beginning this afternoon and best chances over northwest 00z thru 06z.
A strong trough remains centered over Nevada this morning with some low level wrap around moisture effecting our northern zones across the southern Great Basin. Extra cloud cover and isolated, light rain/snow showers will be possible across the northern half of Esmeralda, Lincoln, and Nye Counties through early this afternoon when the trough will begin pushing off to the northeast into southeast Idaho.
Highs today should be close to where they were at yesterday, with most sites toping out in the low to mid 90s. Upper low will continue to lift northeast and will move out into the western high Plains by late Tue afternoon. As this occurs, a cold front is expected to push east and by late Tue afternoon will stretch from eastern Nebraska to west of I-135 and eventually into western OK. Upper pattern will flatten out Wed as the upper low lifts into south central Canada with the surface front moving slightly east, from northwest IA to nw of Wichita and into the TX panhandle. S winds sustained from 17-22kts w/ 26-30kt gusts are again likely in all areas throughout the day as intense low pressure remains centered over CO.
634 AM CDT Mon Jun 12 2017 Main forecast challenge today will be thunderstorm chances given the slight risk over most of the cwa and a good chunk of enhanced to the northwest and moderate over the Pine Ridge of northern Sheridan County. Deep trough to the west over Nevada early this morning with upper jet and diffluence aloft already sparking off thunderstorms from northern Wyoming into Montana and northwest South Dakota. Substantial moisture moving northwest into western Nebraska with td's in the mid to upper 60s with good upglide flow to the north of the low. Timing of stronger wave moving out of the upper low will bring chances for precipitation over western Nebraska beginning this afternoon and best chances over northwest 00z thru 06z.
754 AM EDT Mon Jun 12 2017 Atlantic high pressure will extend across the area through mid week. An inland trough will develop late in the week as the high shifts further offshore. Deeper layer moisture around the southern periphery of the deep layer ridge over the Carolinas and the western Atlantic tries to return from the south through the day. Highs in the lower to mid 80s near the coast, and mid to upper 80s elsewhere. A deep layer ridge just north of the area. Noticed the 06z NAM seems a little less aggressive with the strength of this low tonight and further offshore. Low temperatures in the mid to 60s across portions of the Tri-County to around 70 or the lower 70s across SE GA.
1052 AM EDT Mon Jun 12 2017 High pressure will remain in control of our weather bringing warm and dry conditions through this evening. On Tuesday, a cold front will drop into the area from Canada bringing showers and thunderstorms.