Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
SW GRADIENT WINDS WILL BE FELT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN ON SATURDAY THOUGH DEEPER VALLEY INVERSIONS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE.
A RETURN TOWARD WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN SUNDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS.
AND HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVERTOP HAS ALLOWED TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S/LOWER 30S. THE BEGINNINGS OF WARM WEATHER WILL COMMENCE TODAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER SHIFTS EAST AND RIDGING OCCURS ALOFT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE FAR ENOUGH EAST BY SUNDAY TO ALLOW THE GULF TO OPEN UP AND WITH FLOW BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY ALOFT.
1003 PM CST FRI DEC 18 2015 HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC HAS SETTLED IN OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. WE SHOULD SEE TEMPS FALL IN THE THE LOWER 30S OVERNIGHT. /ISSUED 316 PM CST FRI DEC 18 2015/ A 1030MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER REMAINS AT TEMPLE TEXAS. WHICH MAY REACH THE FREEZING MARK AROUND MIDNIGHT WITH CALM WIND AND STILL PERHAPS A RISING BAROMETER. THE MODELS ARE A TAD QUICKER LOWERING PRESSURES BY DAYBREAK FOR THE ENTIRE AREA WITH A WARMER TREND UNFOLDING ON SOUTHERLY WINDS. EVEN WARMER SOUTHERLY FLOW BY EARLY CHRISTMAS WEEK WILL OPEN UP THE GULF AS A TROUGH APPROACHES.
AND COOLER TEMPERATURES IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
SHORT TERM: (Through Late Tonight) High pressure centered over east Texas will continue to drift east into the Lower Mississippi Valley. The ridge axis will move from eastern Kansas to near Columbia by 12Z Saturday morning. Gusty wind this afternoon will diminish as the ridge axis approaches. Guidance is showing lows in the upper teens to mid 20s, and this looks reasonable given the low dewpoints over the area and the aforementioned good radiational cooling conditions.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN SETTLE OVER IOWA REDUCING WINDS AND CLEARING THE SKY. RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AND WILL LEAD TO A COLD START FOR THE DAY. WARM ADVECTION WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE STATE AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS TO THE EAST AS A MUCH LARGER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BECOMES ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. THIS WILL BE A RESULT OF THE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE TO THE WEST. GOOD FORCING IN THE LOW LEVEL SATURATED LEVEL SUGGESTS THIS WILL TURN INTO A DRIZZLE AND POSSIBLE AN ADVECTION FOG EVENT. THEREFORE THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE SWITCHING TO RAIN OR SNOW AT TIMES WITH POSSIBLE DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE. WINDS WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO IOWA BY DAYBREAK.
BASED ON THE UPGRADED CONDITIONS AND WARMER TEMPS. THE WARM UP WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN US. THE RIDGE WILL GIVE WAY TO A TROUGH BY SUNDAY. INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND INTO THE PLAINS. WITH SEVERAL INCHES IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
For today, some patchy areas of ground fog from Scott City to Hays is possible early this morning, otherwise skies will be clear this morning with upper level ridging. As lee troughing continues, light south to southwest winds will increase to 10 to 20 mph by mid to late afternoon. Lows will be warmer with good mixing and thickening cirrus. Any remaining snow cover at places such as Jetmore and Dodge City may still result in slight cooler temperatures there.
106 AM EST SAT DEC 19 2015 A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS EASTERN CANADA LIFTS NORTHEAST THROUGH WEEKEND WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY AND THEN MOVE OFF TO THE EAST ON SUNDAY. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES HAVE PUSHED EAST THIS EVENING AS TROUGH AXIS MOVES OUT OF THE AREA. THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS WILL THEN HEAD OFF TO THE EAST BRINGING DRY NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW TO THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE IN THE DAY AND THEN MOVE EAST SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN SOUTHERLY FLOW ON SUNDAY WHICH WILL SLOWLY INCREASE AS PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS DUE TO A SLOWLY APPROACHING COLD FRONT. FAVORED COOLER NAM MOS NUMBERS ON SUNDAY.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDED ALONG THE FRONT RANGE AND WESTERN PLAINS. WITH WARMER AIR TO THE WEST.
06Z TAFS VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE SOUTHEAST U.
215 AM EST SAT DEC 19 2015 HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST TODAY WILL BE OVER THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
UPPER TROUGH MOVING FROM THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TODAY WITH THE REGION ON THE BACK SIDE OF TROUGH WITH DRY WNW FLOW ALOFT MOVING THINNING CIRRUS CLOUDS TO THE SE. COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE DEEP SOUTH AND FRONT IN THE FL STRAITS CREATING TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT TO KEEP BREEZY NE WINDS OVER THE AREA TODAY. TEMPERATURES FINALLY BELOW NORMAL IN THE AREA AFTER THIS COOL MORNING DAYTIME CONDITIONS ONLY WARMING INTO THE LOWER 60S IN THE NATURE COAST TO LOWER 70S IN SW FL WHICH IS AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS. WARMING AND MODERATING TREND TO BEGIN SUNDAY SLIGHT UPPER RIDGING BEGINS AND LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERS INCREASING ATLANTIC MOISTURE FOR TEMP AROUND NORMAL.
HIGH SKIES ARE CLEARING OUT ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A BROAD SURFACE TO MID LEVEL TROUGH IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE US/SOUTHEAST CANADA. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST IN THE 15-25MPH RANGE THROUGH THE REST OF THIS MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PROPAGATING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. 06Z RAP/NAM MOISTURE PROFILES LOOK FAIRLY DRY FOR TODAY WITH A HINT OF SOME HIGHER MOISTURE COMING IN THE HIGH LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BRIEFLY DROP OFF LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE RIDGE MOVES THROUGH. THE SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL ADVECT A WARMER AIR MASS INTO THE REGION TONIGHT WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES LIKELY BEING HIT IN THE EVENING BEFORE STABILIZING AND PERHAPS INCREASING TOWARD DAYBREAK.
THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN. WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER/MID 30S FOR INLAND LOCATIONS AND 40S ALONG THE COAST. ONSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. A MOISTENING RETURN FLOW AND WEAKENING RIDGE ALOFT WILL INCREASE MOISTURE GRADUALLY ACROSS THE AREA. ISOLATED COASTAL SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT AS ONSHORE WINDS INCREASE WITH DEVELOPING COASTAL TROUGH.
SURFACE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING GIVES WAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OFF THE WEST COAST MOVES TO THE GREAT BASIN AREA AS IT WEAKENS WITH SURFACE PRESSURES FALLING IN THE HIGH PLAINS.
WHILE UPPER TROUGHING PUSHES INTO THE WESTERN STATES. IN THE LOWER-MIDDLE 20S. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. AHEAD OF THE PACIFIC COLD FRONT.
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/VORTICITY AXIS AND PLUME OF STEEPER LAPSE RATES ARE RESPONSIBLE FOR SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES FROM THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS/SOUTH CENTRAL RIDGES INTO THE LOWER SUSQ. A QUICK DUSTING AND REFREEZING WILL LEAD TO SOME SLICK SPOTS ON UNTREATED ROADS THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING AOB FREEZING/32F IN AND AROUND THE HAR/YORK/LNS AREAS SHOULD RISK IS A BIT LOWER THAN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS TO THE NW. IT WILL BE WINDY AND COLD WITH APPARENT TEMPERATURES/WIND CHILL FACTOR IN THE LOW TEENS OVER THE ALLEGHENIES TO MID 20S IN THE SOUTHEAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL DRIFT EAST ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH ON SUNDAY.
LEAVING CLEARING SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS BY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. WINDS THEN DIMINISH/BACK UNDER A MAINLY CLEAR SKY BY LATE AFTERNOON/TONIGHT AS LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WORKS IN UNDER BUILDING HEIGHTS ALOFT. BRIEF/WK SFC RIDGING FOLLOWS TUE AHD OF NXT MORE POTENT AMPLIFYING THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS. AGAIN RICH LL MSTR FOR DEC XPCD TO CARRY NWD AHD OF ATTENDANT EWD SWEEPING FNTL ZONE W/RAIN LIKELY AGAIN WED FOLLOWED BY REPEAT WK SFC RIDGING THU-FRI BEFORE PATTN RELOADS YET AGAIN LT PD. GENERALLY IN THE HIGH MVFR TO LOW VFR RANGE.
336 AM CST SAT DEC 19 2015 FLAT UPPER RIDGING WILL SKIRT ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS THIS MORNING. FURTHER DEEPENING LEE TROUGHING ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE. SUBSEQUENT DOWNSLOPE BREEZES IN TANDEM WITH AN H85 THERMAL RIDGE LYING SQUARELY ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS/ROLLING PLAINS BY HIGH NOON SHOULD ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO SOAR INTO THE LOW-MID 60S BY EARLY AFTERNOON. FLOW ALOFT WILL THEN BACK TO TAKE ON A CYCLONIC NATURE AS RIDGING SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS AND UPPER TROUGHING PUSHES ONSHORE THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA. BREEZY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT COMBINED WITH THE INCREASING CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S ON MUCH OF THE CAPROCK WHILE LOCALES EAST OF THE ESCARPMENT REMAIN IN THE LOW-MID 40S.
401 AM EST SAT DEC 19 2015 STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST THROUGH SUNDAY.
/issued 147 PM CST FRI DEC 18 2015/ Flat upper ridging over the region today will transition to southwesterly Saturday ahead of the next ua trough. Near normal temperatures will persist through Saturday with temperatures rising well above normal Sunday as the said ua trough passes by to the north of the region. Dynamics associated with the trough will be too far north to allow for any rain chances in our area. A broad upper trough will remain over the ConUS through Christmas Day with above normal temperatures persisting over the region for the duration.
1241 AM EST SAT DEC 19 2015 A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PASS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA EARLY THIS MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER MS AND AL THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EASTWARD IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. TONIGHT THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL NEARLY BE CENTERED OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
1114 PM CST FRI DEC 18 2015 FOR 06Z TAFS /ISSUED 933 PM CST FRI DEC 18 2015/ THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WAS OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.
AS WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION IS NOTED FROM A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED OVER EASTERN TEXAS. SOME PATCHY FROST AND NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTED IN THE USUAL COOLER SPOTS NORTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR. THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE TO THE MID ATLANTIC BY SUNDAY WITH LOW PRESSURE FORMING EAST OF THE ROCKIES. SHORT WAVE WILL TAKE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NORTHEAST. AND SURFACE FRONT TRAILING FROM THE LOW.
906 PM MST FRI DEC 18 2015 WARMER WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY WITH BEFORE A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEMS CROSS ARIZONA ON SUNDAY AND BRINGS COOLER BUT STILL SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES TO THE SOUTHWEST. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING TO A GOOD PORTION OF THE INTERIOR WEST AND SOUTHWEST STATES TODAY PEAKED TEMPERATURES TO THEIR WARMEST READINGS COMPARED TO THE LAST FEW CHILLY DAYS ACROSS THE REGION. BUT SOME MOISTURE FROM THE SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE FEED AND JET HAS BROKEN INTO THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE FLOW.
CURRENT ANALYSIS SHOWS AXIS OF THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE THAT EXTENDS ACROSS THE ENTIRE STATE IS RIGHT OVER CENTRAL MT THIS AFTN. WITH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BECOMING MORE ESTABLISHED TONIGHT, WARMER TEMPS SHOULD CONTINUE TO PUSH SLOWLY NORTHWARD, BUT TOO LATE IN THE DAY TO PROVIDE MUCH RELIEF OVER HILINE COUNTIES, THOUGH IT SHOULD ALLOW THEIR OVERNIGHT TEMPS TO BE WARMER THAN THE PAST FEW NIGHTS. WEAK RIDGING BEHIND THE TROF WILL BRING CLEARING SKIES FOR THE HILINE AND CENTRAL COUNTIES, BUT CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER OVER SOUTHWEST MT INTO SUN EVENING. PERIOD STARTS OFF WITH MODELS IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH LARGE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH COVERING MUCH OF WEST AND CENTRAL UNITED STATES KEEPING TEMPERATURES SEASONABLY COOL. SEVERAL WEATHER SYSTEMS EMBEDDED IN THE TROUGH WILL BE PUSHING INLAND AND ACROSS MONTANA.
500MB RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE CWA TODAY EVEN AS AN ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS AT THE SURFACE THIS AFTERNOON. LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE STATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS A 500MB TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE UNITED STATES.
414 AM EST SAT DEC 19 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TODAY. THE HIGH WILL GRADUALLY MOVE OFF TO THE EAST TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.
1132 PM CST FRI DEC 18 2015 HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH A TROUGH/WARM FRONT ALONG THE FRONT RANGE. UPPER LEVEL BROAD RIDGE ACROSS THE ROCKIES WITH A TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND ANOTHER ONE ALONG THE PACIFIC WEST COAST. WITH THE LOWER TO MID 30S ELSEWHERE. THE NORTHERN PLAINS HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA THIS EVENING. IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE. OVERNIGHT THE TROUGH ALONG THE FRONT RANGE WILL LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AS A WARM FRONT AND WILL HALT THE FALL OF TEMPS. FOR TOMORROW THE RIDGE AXIS WILL BE OVERHEAD.
212 AM EST SAT DEC 19 2015 SNOW SHOWERS TAPER OFF TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE TAKES HOLD THROUGH SUNDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE PEASANT FLIGHT CONDITIONS IN THE ARKLATEX AIRSPACE.
At 20Z an upper trough was over the Great Lakes and the OH river valley. A second upper trough was just off the Pacific Northwest Coast. In between the two troughs, ridging was found over the Rockies. At the surface, a general high pressure system was influencing the Great Plains with any hint of low level moisture well off the gulf coast. If the boundary layer mixes deeper, surface temps could be warmer. Gusty southwest winds ahead of a cold front increase between 15 and 20 mph sustained, with gusts in upwards of 30 mph. Lift enhances in the lower levels along and ahead of the front during the late afternoon/early evening Sunday time frame.
AS THE SHORT WAVE AND COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH. CREATING SOME INSTABILITY IN THE LOWEST KILOMETER. OTHERWISE AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN U. SUNDAY WILL BRING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA AS THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF WEAK AND RAPIDLY MOVING UPPER WAVES CROSSES THE AREA. SOME DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE OR FLURRIES COULD BE A THOUGHT FOR LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. BUT THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DOES NOT LOOK VERY DEEP ON MODEL BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AND WILL LIKEWISE NOT MENTION. TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL MIX OUT TO HIGHS AROUND 30 NORTHWEST TO THE LOWER 40S IN NORTHWEST IOWA BEFORE STARTING TO COOL BEFORE VERY MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON HAS GONE.
1143 PM CST FRI DEC 18 2015 LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT ALL LOCATIONS DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE. /ISSUED 850 PM CST FRI DEC 18 2015/ HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO KEEP SKIES CLEAR OVER THE AREA.
THE LEADING EDGE OF A COLD FRONT PUSHED THROUGH THE FLORIDA KEYS LAST EVENING. DEWPOINTS HAVE FALLEN INTO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. WHILE DADE COUNTY REMAINS IN THE LOWER 60S.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THE AIRMASS DRY WITH ONLY A FEW CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALSO WARM THE AIRMASS AND SOME LOCATIONS WILL SEE NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL KEEP THE AIRMASS DRY AND STABLE TODAY. A WEAK, UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY AND A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE CANADIAN BORDER SATURDAY MORNING.
H5 TROUGH COMING ASHORE ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY IN THE LOWER 80S AS CLOUD COVER HOLDS DOWN THE HEATING SOME.
NEXT IMPULSE IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL GENERATE CONVECTION IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
214 PM PDT FRI APR 8 2016 High pressure will be briefly sullied by a cold front tonight into Saturday, but the threat of precipitation will be limited.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE TO THE EAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
BEST CHANCE FOR NEAR ADVISORY LVL SNOW WILL BE IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS WITH THE LEAST IMPACT.
COOLER AND WINDY CONDITIONS TODAY LOOK TO CONTINUE THIS EVENING. SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE NORTHEAST HAS PRODUCED SOME SLEET/GRAUPEL THANKS TO SOME DECENT LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT. HOWEVER THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT THE SOUTHWEST AND PARTS AROUND THE NASHVILLE AREA WILL STAY ABOVE FREEZING DUE TO WIND SPEEDS STAYING UP OVERNIGHT. TEMPS SHOULD DROP TO FREEZING OR JUST BELOW. TEMPS MAY NOT GET BELOW FREEZING.
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR DRY AND COOLER WEATHER REMAINS ABOUT THE SAME AS WE GO INTO THE WEEKEND. THE FRINGES OF AN ANOMALOUSLY COLD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL BE FELT IN THE ARKLAMISS.
243 PM CDT FRI APR 8 2016 A LEAD UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS ARIZONA.
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AT HIGH LEVELS OVER THE EASTERN US TONIGHT BEGINS LIFTING NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. THE HIGH LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW OVER OUR AREA BEGINS TO FLATTEN. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS MOVES SOUTHEAST OVER LOUISIANA TONIGHT. WILL BE COOLER WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS WELL BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS.
334 PM CDT FRI APR 8 2016 INFLUX OF PACIFIC MOISTURE ALOFT CONTINUED THIS AFTERNOON WELL IN ADVANCE OF A TROUGH FOUND LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. EVEN WITH A DIRTY RIDGE ATOP THE REGION. HIGH TEMPS IN THE ROLLING PLAINS LOOK TO FARE QUITE A BIT COOLER IN THAN FARTHER WEST.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH SNOW OVER THE HIGH SIERRA. SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW LOTS OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS CENTRAL CA AND A WEAK UPPER TROUGH OVER KERN COUNTY AND THE HIGH DESERT. THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE LIFTING NORTH WITH A CONTINUED THREAT OF ADDITIONAL STORMS TOWARDS THE CENTRAL VALLEY THIS EVENING. A STRONGER UPSTREAM UPPER LOW WILL FOLLOW A SIMILAR PATH AND APPROACH THE SOCAL COAST ON SATURDAY. THE LOW TRACKS SE OFF THE SCAL COAST WITH THE BEST LOCAL DYNAMIC LIFT TOWARDS THE KERN COUNTY.
AND TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 70S. WITH UPPER-RIDGE SHIFTING EAST.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT.
243 PM CDT FRI APR 8 2016 COOLER AND WINDY CONDITIONS TODAY LOOK TO CONTINUE THIS EVENING. SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE NORTHEAST HAS PRODUCED SOME SLEET/GRAUPEL THANKS TO SOME DECENT LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT. HOWEVER THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT THE SOUTHWEST AND PARTS AROUND THE NASHVILLE AREA WILL STAY ABOVE FREEZING DUE TO WIND SPEEDS STAYING UP OVERNIGHT. TEMPS SHOULD DROP TO FREEZING OR JUST BELOW. TEMPS MAY NOT GET BELOW FREEZING.
BRIEF BREAK IS TAKING PLACE BETWEEN SYSTEMS TODAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TAKES PLACE. THIS INITIAL PUSH IN PRECIPITATION IS ANTICIPATED TO BE RAIN WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE FREEZING AND SOME WEAK WARM ADVECTION TAKING PLACE. THINK THE BULK OF THE SNOW THAT FALLS IN THE RIDGES WILL BE FROM THE NW FLOW AS THE SYSTEM SHIFTS TO THE EAST. AND ESPECIALLY IN THE RIDGES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION WILL END BY SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.
435 PM EDT FRI APR 8 2016 COLD UPPER TROF WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO MINNESOTA FROM THE WEST ON SATURDAY NIGHT. A MAJOR TROUGH WILL CARVE ITSELF OUT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BRING UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR INTO THE REGION.
330 PM CDT FRI APR 8 2016 High pressure over Manitoba will quickly make its way into eastern Iowa and Missouri late tonight bringing an end to the gusty winds. This combined with clear skies overnight will allow temperatures to drop to near or below freezing across much of the forecast area, including a hard freeze over northern Missouri where temperatures could drop into the mid 20s. High pressure shifting to the east on Saturday will bring winds around from the southeast. However these winds and increasing clouds will keep temperatures quite a bit warmer Saturday night with lows in the upper 40s to mid 50s.
Temperatures running much cooler across northern portions of the Valley which were not spared by the Delta breeze yesterday. Next low pressure system, currently off the SoCal coast will begin to move inland this evening into the weekend.
WITH A DOWNSTREAM LONG-WAVE TROUGH PRESENT OVER ERN NORTH AMERICA. IN THE LOW LEVELS.
OTHERWISE NOT GOING WITH A LOT OF CHANGES WITH THE OVERALL FCST AS MODELS REMAIN ON TRACK WITH THE DEVELOPMENT/EVE- NTUAL TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW FROM THE WEST. BEST POPS LOOK TO BE ON MON WITH THE APPROACH/PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT ALONG WITH THE 1ST UPPER TROF (WHICH COULD BE COMING IN AS AN OPEN WAVE). BUT POPS COULD PERSIST INTO TUES/WEDS AS ANOTHER UPPER TROF MOVES IN FROM THE WEST.
319 PM CDT FRI APR 8 2016 AN ANOMALOUSLY LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND AS LONGWAVE TROUGHING PREVAILS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. THIS PATTERN WILL RESULT IN A REINFORCING DRY COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE TN VALLEY LATE TONIGHT. THE PRIMARY DRIVER WITH THE COLD AIR IS A REINFORCING DRY COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST AND THE CAA ALREADY OCCURRING ACROSS THE TN/OH/MS RIVER VALLEYS. THOUGH TEMPERATURES MAY APPROACH FREEZING OVER SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN, THE WINDS WILL LIKELY STAY HIGH ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE FROST DEVELOPMENT. FURTHERMORE, IT APPEARS THAT ONLY PROTECTED VALLEYS MAY APPROACH FREEZING AS DECOUPLING MAY NOT ACTUALLY OCCUR. NW WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SHIFTS SE ACROSS THE TN VALLEY.
543 PM CDT FRI APR 8 2016 FOR 00Z TAFS /ISSUED 319 PM CDT FRI APR 8 2016/ AN ANOMALOUSLY LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND AS LONGWAVE TROUGHING PREVAILS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. THIS PATTERN WILL RESULT IN A REINFORCING DRY COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE TN VALLEY LATE TONIGHT. THE PRIMARY DRIVER WITH THE COLD AIR IS A REINFORCING DRY COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST AND THE CAA ALREADY OCCURRING ACROSS THE TN/OH/MS RIVER VALLEYS. THOUGH TEMPERATURES MAY APPROACH FREEZING OVER SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN, THE WINDS WILL LIKELY STAY HIGH ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE FROST DEVELOPMENT. FURTHERMORE, IT APPEARS THAT ONLY PROTECTED VALLEYS MAY APPROACH FREEZING AS DECOUPLING MAY NOT ACTUALLY OCCUR. NW WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SHIFTS SE ACROSS THE TN VALLEY.
THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS LARGE SCALE TROF COVERING THE EASTERN CONUS. WITH RIDGE FROM THE ROCKIES INTO THE PACIFIC NW. MUCH WARMER AIR IS ON THE WAY FOR SATURDAY AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE WEST MOVES EAST AS A WARM FRONT LATER TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST FROM WEST TO EAST LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FURTHER EAST OF THE REGION. THE PINE RIDGE. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA MIDDAY. SOME SNOW COULD MIX IN LATE AT NIGHT OVER THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE BLACK HILLS.
Despite winds staying up overnight, trajectories and model 2m temps suggest we will be able to fall to freezing or lower. Saturday will be dry and quiet with high pressure ridge axis moving across the region.
505 PM EDT FRI APR 8 2016 COLD UPPER TROF WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY.
COOLER DRIER AIR WILL PERSIST WITH WINDS OUT OF THE NNE TO NE AT 5 TO 15 KTS WITH HIGHER GUST OF 20 KTS.
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS UP TO 6 INCHES OR MORE ABOVE THIS LEVEL BUT IMPACTS WILL BE MINIMAL FOR THE HIGH PASSES IN THE SAN JUANS SO HAVE NO PLANS TO HOIST WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WITH THIS PACKAGE.
RIDGING OVER INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TODAY WILL BE BROKEN DOWN THIS WEEKEND AS SHORT WAVE TROUGH TRACKS ACROSS CANADA AND DRAGS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR REGION SATURDAY EVENING. AIDED BY BRISK DOWNSLOPE FLOW OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
1220 PM CDT FRI APR 8 2016 EARLY MORNING WV IMAGERY INDICATED A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES. ANOTHER SHRTWV TROUGH WITHIN THE MEAN TROUGH WAS LOCATED OVER THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY THIS MRNG. BUT NEVERTHELESS WE ARE EXPECTING FREEZING TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA. LIMITED MIXING IS EXPECTED WITH THIS PATTERN BUT WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES ALOFT WE SHOULD SEE HIGHS ON SAT A CAT OR TWO WARMER THAN TODAY. THE WAA PATTERN WILL CONT INTO SAT NIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS/SRN CANADA. MAINLY IN THE ERN CWA AS THE SFC COLD FRONT SHIFTS SEWD THROUGH FA.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE FA TONIGHT WITH DIMINISHING WINDS AND CLOUD COVER. WITH CURRENT T VALUES BLO FREEZING AND DEWPOINTS BARELY OUT OF THE SINGLE DIGITS WILL BE A COLD NIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY FROM 10 TO 20 DEGREES. WITH WARMER COLUMN AND MIXING TEMPERATURES NOT NEAR AS COLD.