Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Wind gusts should max out around 20 knots through the afternoon before ridging helps decrease winds further this evening. * Low confidence in ceilings at or below 5000 ft after 18Z today Deep layer cold, weakly cyclonic west-northwest flow marking the western expanse of gradually exiting high amplitude troughing maintains control today. Waning cold air advection early this morning leaves a resident low level thermal trough characterized by 850 mb temps invof -10c for the daylight period. Moisture depth remains quite shallow with an inversion level fortified at 4-5k ft thanks to the high magnitude drying/stability above 800 mb. Stretch of dry and stable conditions will grip the region during the Tue/Wed window under building upper heights atop transient surface ridging.
512 AM CST Mon Nov 22 2021 (Today and tonight) High pressure will reign supreme today and tonight with temperatures near the seasonable averages and relatively light winds.
335 AM CST Mon Nov 22 2021 As of 09z Monday, widespread cirrus continues to stream in via northwest flow aloft, over western ridging aloft and aided by a robust jet streak. Warming commences with steadily developing WAA today as light winds turn southwesterly and strong upper ridging builds east. Lingering cirrus should become more diffuse as the ridge slides east, limiting warming some along and east of the I-29 corridor. Cooler further east today where highs will only reach the upper 30s to mid 40s, vs warmer near 50 degrees in central SD. Flattening upper ridging slides through the Central Plains on Tuesday, remaining in the top 10% of the NAEFS climatology.
515 AM CST Mon Nov 22 2021 (Today and tonight) A slow warming trend commences today with a return to southerly winds as lower level ridge weakens and slides south and east of the forecast area.
348 AM MST Mon Nov 22 2021 The high pressure that brought the blue skies and gentle breezes yesterday will be shifting eastward today as the ridge axis moves directly over our CWA this afternoon. 05 inches) will still be possible for almost the entire Western Slope as the trough moves through though it will be very isolated in nature.
/Issued 233 AM EST Mon Nov 22 2021/ Early this morning the much anticipated precipitation and cold front have begun to move across the FA. By this afternoon the cold front will be SE of the area leaving breezy NW winds in its wake. Tomorrow high pressure at the surface settles over the area trapping the cooler air in place. Behind the aforementioned cold front very dry air will also be advected into the area. 28 Tuesday night should be calm, clear, and cool with overnight temperatures hovering around freezing for a majority of the CWA.
632 AM EST Mon Nov 22 2021 High pressure building across the Eastern United States will provide chilly and dry weather today.
406 AM MST Mon Nov 22 2021 Upper level ridge currently centered over the Great Basin will weaken as it slides eastward across the Central Rockies later today. Weak northwest flow around the ridge will bring warm and dry air to the region. Above the inversion in the warmer airmass, lows are expected to be in the 30s to lower 40s. With the combination of gusty winds and a dominate ridge pattern across our area lowering relative humidity levels under 15 percent, a Fire Weather Watch is in effect Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening for parts of the urban corridor, foothills, South Park, and the Palmer Divide.
A low pressure system moving toward Baja California will bring increasing clouds to the area tonight and Tuesday with a slight chance of light showers over eastern Mohave County.
Pleasant conditions today with light winds and temperatures warming into the 60s as an upper ridge builds in aloft and the trend of dry weather continues. Heading into tomorrow, southwesterly flow returns aloft as the next trough pushes into the western CONUS. Winds will be southwest around 15 to 25 mph with the higher winds across the north central and northeast Panhandles. At this time, we are deciding to hold off on any fire headlines due to the uncertainty of the higher winds lining up with the lowest relative humidity values, along with the chance of high clouds hindering the fire weather potential.
A low pressure system will produce cloudy and cool conditions for the middle of this week, otherwise temperatures will continue to run right around normal.
High pressure persists with above normal temperatures today and lighter offshore winds. With high pressure persisting overhead, it's another clear night on satellite for the Bay Area and Central CA coast.
424 AM MST Mon Nov 22 2021 An upper ridge will spread across the northern Rockies and into the plains over the next few days. By late Tuesday afternoon, with the upper trof over the northern Rockies, a cold front will drop south across the Canadian border.
501 AM CST Mon Nov 22 2021 Expect VFR conditions to persist through this TAF period as high pressure moves over the region. Today Through Tuesday Night A cold front pushed SE through the state Sun evening. with drier cooler air filtering into the state as a result. Highs this Mon afternoon will be in the low 50s to low 60s. These SRLY winds will allow for slightly warmer temps on Tue afternoon. keeping Tue night lows warmer in the mid 30s to mid 40s.
947 AM EST Mon Nov 22 2021 High pressure building across the Eastern United States will provide chilly and dry weather today.
/issued 318 AM CST Mon Nov 22 2021/ Early morning temperatures across the Midsouth range from the low 40s near the Kentucky state line in northwest Tennessee to the middle 50s near Aberdeen in northwest Mississippi.
Surface analysis has high pressure centered over the mid-MS valley this afternoon that will slide eastward into the TN valley bringing dry and continued cool weather for the short term period.
For tonight, cool temperatures will be the highlight as lows settle into the upper 30s to low 40s. Warmer temperatures and breezy south winds will be the main change for tomorrow.
For the middle Keys it took a little longer for the low stratus to come in and remains present, although this stratus deck too is gradually thinning out. The other interesting feature is a pre-frontal trough that is moving across the region at this moment. BYX radar has been tracking a line of showers associated with this pre-frontal trough as it trekked southeast across the Gulf of Mexico. As it entered our waters, the northern end took on a brief meso-cyclone vortex. This pre-frontal trough is moving out ahead of the main front that remains draped across the northern Gulf coast. This front will push through late tonight with the help of a high pressure that is quickly trailing this front.
The upper level ridge breaks down on Tuesday. A pre-frontal trough will extend across western Nebraska. A cold front will move into the area Tuesday night as the upper ridge moves east and a longwave trough moves in.
235 PM CST Mon Nov 22 2021 The pressure gradient between the cold front pushing out of the region and high pressure across the Midwest building southeast into the region has kept breezy northerly winds in place through the day. High pressure will be overhead allowing for clear skies and light northerly winds to persist. With increasing heights, temps will be a tad warmer with daytime highs reaching the lower 50s and overnight lows hovering around freezing.
WV imagery shows an upper trough off the Pacific Coast. The trough will advance inland overnight with snow moving into the Central Mountains just after sunrise tomorrow. The associated cold front will swing through later in the afternoon. The cold front will drive winds into the 20 to 25 mph range across the Snake Plain tomorrow, and should peak between 4pm and 6pm. Snow will begin to taper off this evening as winds die down, and the upper trough will exit to the east by late tomorrow night.
Clear skies and light winds prevail overnight as high pressure builds in. Deep layer cold, weakly cyclonic west-northwest flow marking the western expanse of gradually exiting high amplitude troughing maintains control today. Waning cold air advection early this morning leaves a resident low level thermal trough characterized by 850 mb temps invof -10c for the daylight period. Moisture depth remains quite shallow with an inversion level fortified at 4-5k ft thanks to the high magnitude drying/stability above 800 mb. Stretch of dry and stable conditions will grip the region during the Tue/Wed window under building upper heights atop transient surface ridging.
323 PM EST Mon Nov 22 2021 An upper level trough was over the eastern CONUS, and ridging was over the west this afternoon. There were still some cirrus periodically in the sky due to a jet rounding through the trough, but models agree on this departing this evening. Meanwhile, ridging aloft will build in from the west, arriving on Tuesday night.
907 AM CST Mon Nov 22 2021 The cold front that brought us showers and a few thunderstorms last night is now located in central Georgia and southern Alabama. Behind the front, we have lingering few to scattered cloud cover, breezy winds and seeing that cooler/drier air filtering in. Further upstream, strong high pressure is building across the Midwest creating a pressure gradient that will keep northwesterly flow gusting up towards 20mph. Latest forecast trends have moderated this airmass a bit, but if winds subside and go calm this evening, expect temperatures to potentially drop down into the lower 20s. By Tuesday, upper level ridging to our west will gradually shift eastward.
Currently, an upper level trough axis is exiting the Ohio Valley region placing cenral Indiana in NW flow, upstream of the trough. This area is primed for surface pressure increases as moderate CAA helps cool the low to mid levels. More dry weather is expected tomorrow and tomorrow night, but the progressive pattern will alter the steering winds, pushing slightly warmer air in from the SW. This will lead to afternoon highs in the low to mid 40s. With high pressure still influencing surface conditions, winds will remain mostly calm, especially over SE central Indiana. This SW WAA will also increase dew points, helping keep temperatures slightly warmer tomorrow night, with lows near 30.
(This afternoon through Tuesday night) Short wave ridging aloft will give way to quasi-zonal flow while, at the surface, lee troughing is underway. After overnight lows from near 30 over northern Lea County NM to the lower 50s along the Rio Grande, highs tomorrow will range from the mid 60s at higher elevations of the Guadalupes to the mid 80s around Rio Grande Village.
Tonight will be cold with high pressure centered over the region by 12z Tuesday. /issued 318 AM CST Mon Nov 22 2021/ Early morning temperatures across the Midsouth range from the low 40s near the Kentucky state line in northwest Tennessee to the middle 50s near Aberdeen in northwest Mississippi.
1235 PM EST Mon Nov 22 2021 A cold front moves through the area today, bringing rain to an end and ushering in a colder air mass.
Clearing skies and northwest winds will prevail through the afternoon as dry, cooler air filter into the state. /Issued 233 AM EST Mon Nov 22 2021/ Early this morning the much anticipated precipitation and cold front have begun to move across the FA. By this afternoon the cold front will be SE of the area leaving breezy NW winds in its wake. Tomorrow high pressure at the surface settles over the area trapping the cooler air in place. Behind the aforementioned cold front very dry air will also be advected into the area. 28 Tuesday night should be calm, clear, and cool with overnight temperatures hovering around freezing for a majority of the CWA.
249 PM EST Mon Nov 22 2021 Dry, cooler air is already filtering into Georgia behind earlier frontal passage, and steady northwest flow will usher in the coldest air of the season tonight.
VFR through the period at all sites as lower cigs and visb continues to improve behind the passing cold front, the only exception being for a few hours this morning at TRI where some patchy MVFR fog prevails. CDG Chattanooga Airport, TN 53 30 50 30 56 / 0 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 50 26 46 28 55 / 0 0 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 49 25 46 27 54 / 0 0 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 47 21 42 24 52 / 10 0 0 0 0.
253 PM CST Mon Nov 22 2021 High pressure will move across the region this evening and overnight allowing winds to diminish this evening. Temperatures will drop into the lower to mid 20s tonight.
357 PM EST Mon Nov 22 2021 An upper level trough was over the eastern CONUS, and ridging was over the west this afternoon. There were still some cirrus periodically in the sky due to a jet rounding through the trough, but models agree on this departing this evening. Meanwhile, ridging aloft will build in from the west, arriving on Tuesday night.
109 PM MST Mon Nov 22 2021 Water vapor shows upper ridge axis extending through the Rockies, with surface analysis showing a deepening trof in the lee of the Rockies. Very mild weather will continue through Tuesday with upper ridge building eastward. Southwest winds will gradually increase overnight as lee trof advances eastwards. Surface trof will work across the region on Tuesday, with thermal ridge overhead resulting in high temps well into the 50s for northeast WY and northwest SD, with 60s and even some lower 70s south/east of the Black Hills. Cold front moves through Tuesday night, with gusty northwest winds and much cooler temps filtering in.
1043 AM EST Mon Nov 22 2021 We remain on the southern periphery of a long wave trough currently pinned along the entire Eastern Seaboard. Otherwise, with drier air filtering in behind the trough, chances will be low for the remaining Keys. This is because high pressure is quickly moving in from the Central Plains and ushering out the aforementioned trough.
An upper level ridge tonight will quickly move off to our east. As the ridge moves off to our east, then it will be replaced by an upper level trough over the Great Basin.
229 PM EST Mon Nov 22 2021 Mid/upper-level troughing continues across the eastern U. For tonight, much cooler and drier air will quickly move into the region as high pressure builds over the southeast on robust north- northwest winds. This setup will bring plenty of sunshine on Tuesday, but high temperatures will only reach the lower 60s to upper 60s.
231 PM CST Mon Nov 22 2021 An upper level ridge will continue to progress across the center of the CONUS this evening through tomorrow. At the same time, a short wave trough will move onshore in the Pacific Northwest Tuesday morning and then progress into the Intermountain West during the afternoon. This short wave trough will result in stronger surface lee cyclogenesis/troughing on Tuesday. This will result in an elongated positively tilted upper trough axis shifting across the central CONUS through the midweek period.
High pressure ridging is building across the area this afternoon and this will continue through the period. A cold night is on tap with lows ranging from around freezing in the Golden Triangle area to the mid 30s in the south. Surface and upper ridging will continue on Tuesday, with mainly clear skies and highs ranging from the mid 50s to mid 60s.
Elevated to near critical fire weather conditions are possible tomorrow afternoon as temperatures rise into the low 70s, RH values drop to 15-20 percent, and as wind gusts increase up to 30-40mph.
With the low level flow remaining northwest, skies should end being clear/mostly clear tonight with the general subsidence/northwest upper level confluent flow, allowing mins to fall into lower 20s/around 20 (guidance temps suggest even slightly colder) as winds go calm/nearly calm.
Clouds continue to clear this afternoon with high pressure and VFR conditions expected at all sites through the period. JB Chattanooga Airport, TN 53 30 50 30 56 / 0 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 50 26 46 28 55 / 0 0 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 49 25 46 27 54 / 0 0 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 47 21 42 24 52 / 10 0 0 0 0.
The approaching Pacific trough will begin to move into eastern Oregon on Tuesday morning, and will spread east across the forecast area through the evening hours.
While dependent on the degree of any passing high level cloud cover, a few of the low-lying colder drainage areas within the Hill Country should fall into the mid 30s. Wouldn't be surprised if an isolated locale or two, especially further to the north where high clouds could be less prevalent, nears freezing and sees local frost development. Afternoon highs are to range from the upper 60s across the Hill Country to the low to mid 70s elsewhere.
Northwesterly winds will remain light then become southerly as the ridge passes. Low temperatures tonight will mostly be in the teens east of the Mississippi River, and in the low 20s to its west. Expect winds to pick up tomorrow as the pressure gradient tightens due to a low pressure system to the west. The forecast for the holiday week/weekend looks to be relatively quiet* with a brief bout of warmer temperatures midweek. A stout southerly fetch between a lower tropospheric High Plains trough and Appalachians ridge keeps winds and temperatures on the higher side for Tuesday night. Sustained winds remain in the 10-20kt range with a few gusts pushing 30 kts while lows only fall into the lower 30s east of the Mississippi River to upper 30s to the west.
Some clouds could push through southern portions of central Indiana, on the apex of the upper trough, but overall most areas will remain mostly clear. Early this morning, colder air was flowing into central Indiana behind an exiting cold front. Aloft, an upper trough will exit the area today, allowing an upper ridge to gradually build in through Tuesday. At the surface, high pressure will move into the area from the west. Some mid and high clouds will spill across the upper ridge and into central Indiana at times through Tuesday. Warmer air will begin to return to the area on Tuesday on southerly winds.
Water vapor imagery this afternoon showed a very amplified trough across the eastern half of the nation, with an upper ridge centered over the Rockies, and western Canada.
1058 AM MST Mon Nov 22 2021 Current surface map places trough/warm front across the western Dakotas. With upper level ridge over the Rockies shifts into the plains today, with robust low level warm advection. Ridge breaks down Tuesday as upper trough approaches the Rockies.
1124 AM CST Mon Nov 22 2021 (Today and tonight) A slow warming trend commences today with a return to southerly winds as lower level ridge weakens and slides south and east of the forecast area.
1118 AM CST Mon Nov 22 2021 A slowly progressive longwave trof will continue to deepen across eastern NOAM today with northwest flow aloft across the region. Even though the high will be retreating, it will still exert an influence on cooling across the region with light winds and low dew points. This cold however will be short-lived as an upper level ridge shifts from the Plains into the MS Valley, and as low level WAA becomes established. This should translate into much warmer high temperatures on Tuesday.
921 AM MST Mon Nov 22 2021 An upper level ridge remains to the west and gradually moves eastward today. Upper level ridge currently centered over the Great Basin will weaken as it slides eastward across the Central Rockies later today. Weak northwest flow around the ridge will bring warm and dry air to the region. Above the inversion in the warmer airmass, lows are expected to be in the 30s to lower 40s. With the combination of gusty winds and a dominate ridge pattern across our area lowering relative humidity levels under 15 percent, a Fire Weather Watch is in effect Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening for parts of the urban corridor, foothills, South Park, and the Palmer Divide.
913 AM CST Mon Nov 22 2021 (Issued 914 AM CST Mon Nov 22 2021) A less windy day is expected as high pressure ridge approaches from the west. Kavinsky (Issued 312 AM CST Mon Nov 22 2021) Today and Tonight: The area of low pressure that dragged the strong cold front across Wisconsin yesterday will continue to move eastward into Quebec this morning. As the low moves out of the Great Lakes Region, the winds will gradually stay to decrease. The colder temperatures will persist through tonight as high pressure begins to move into the state. If skies remain clear tonight then temperatures could fall into the low 20s to low teens across southern Wisconsin. Given the dry low and mid levels as well as high pressure moving in, there is moderate confidence that it will stay clear.
1035 AM MST Mon Nov 22 2021 An upper level ridge remains to the west and gradually moves eastward today. Upper level ridge currently centered over the Great Basin will weaken as it slides eastward across the Central Rockies later today. Weak northwest flow around the ridge will bring warm and dry air to the region. Above the inversion in the warmer airmass, lows are expected to be in the 30s to lower 40s. With the combination of gusty winds and a dominate ridge pattern across our area lowering relative humidity levels under 15 percent, a Fire Weather Watch is in effect Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening for parts of the urban corridor, foothills, South Park, and the Palmer Divide.
312 PM EST Mon Nov 22 2021 This afternoon an upper level low was just east of James Bay with a trough extending down into the northern Great Lakes. An upper level ridge was over the northern Rockies with troughing moving into the Pacific Northwest. A trough will deepen on Tuesday from the lee of the Rockies and east into the Northern Plains.
Despite high pressure to the southwest, some weak warm advection has resulted in scattered to broken mid clouds throughout much of the day. If clear skies occur all evening/overnight, temps could be cooler than the current forecast. As high pressure moves southeast of the state this sets up return flow/warm advection for Tuesday. High temps will be warmer and near normal, with readings in the upper 30s and low 40s.
1037 AM MST Mon Nov 22 2021 The high pressure that brought the blue skies and gentle breezes yesterday will be shifting eastward today as the ridge axis moves directly over our CWA this afternoon. 05 inches) will still be possible for almost the entire Western Slope as the trough moves through though it will be very isolated in nature.
Currently, an upper ridge axis resides to our west. The ridge axis moves overhead Tuesday, bringing more mild temperatures to the region. Highs in and around the Turtle Mountains will rise into the lower 40s, while the southwest and portions of the south central will see highs up into the mid to upper 50s.
The cold front that brought us showers and a few thunderstorms last night is now located in central Georgia and southern Alabama. Behind the front, we have lingering few to scattered cloud cover, breezy winds and seeing that cooler/drier air filtering in. Further upstream, strong high pressure is building across the Midwest creating a pressure gradient that will keep northwesterly flow gusting up towards 20mph. Latest forecast trends have moderated this airmass a bit, but if winds subside and go calm this evening, expect temperatures to potentially drop down into the lower 20s. By Tuesday, upper level ridging to our west will gradually shift eastward.
248 PM EST Mon Nov 22 2021 Short term (Tonight - Tuesday): As the wind flow picks up and the morning fog dissipates at the surface, the low status will eventually give way to peeks of sunshine ahead of the cold front. The front will clear across the region tonight with drier, cooler air in its wake for Tuesday.
231 PM CST Mon Nov 22 2021 High pressure will continue to drift eastward over the Ohio Valley area tonight while pressure falls are progged across the Central High Plains region. This will correspond with rising temperatures as the low level thermal ridge expands into the Central High Plains. Some locations may struggle to fall below the low/mid 50s. After a mild beginning to the day, an advancing cold front will usher in much cooler air late in the period with a chance for showers mainly east of the Kansas Turnpike. High pressure will bring light winds making temperatures in the mid and upper 40s feel a bit more comfortable.