Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Very active upper level pattern with a closed low over California and open wave over the southern plains which is undercutting a ridge axis. At the surface, a warm front was located over northern Arkansas with temperatures in the 70s south of the front. The warm front will also start to lift northward this evening. The low level jet will increase later tonight and overrun the warm front which will set up in the northern CWA. An upper level ridge will be amplifying east of the area by the middle of the week while upper level low pressure develops over the Rockies. Additional energy moving into the area from the southwest out ahead of the main upper low will continue to bring heavy rain chances and likely excessive rain to the area through the end of the week.
Off lake winds will keep lakeside areas a bit cooler.
High pressure crossing the region will bring mild and dry weather for the rest of the weekend. Low pressure slowly approaches the Pacific Northwest early in the coming week bringing chances for showers. A better chance for showers and cooler temperatures arrive with an upper level trough of low pressure around mid week, and likely remaining through the end of the week.
244 AM CDT Sun May 16 2021 Quiet conditions were seen early Sunday with 2am temperatures/dewpoints in the low to mid 50s across the CWA. Forecast soundings keep aforementioned inversion in place until late morning/early afternoon and for this reason decided to stay on the low end of temperature guidance today. That being said, temperatures will be warmer compared to yesterday as afternoon highs reach the low 70s. If any cloud breaks develop,then we could be even warmer but is not anticipated.
High pressure remains over the East Coast and western Atlantic, resulting in continued southeasterly low-level flow across Central Alabama.
437 AM EDT Sun May 16 2021 A weak upper level disturbance moves through the area today, otherwise high pressure will strengthen through the upcoming week. Highs today will top out in the lower to mid 70s.
410 AM EDT Sun May 16 2021 An upper ridge will build over GA and surrounding states during the short term.
Cooler than normal temperatures are forecast this weekend.
Despite weak ridging aloft, that will keep much of the area capped today, steep lapse rates of 7.
1010 PM MDT Sat May 15 2021 The influences of a northern stream trough pulling across the area, as well as support from a right-entrance region of an upper jet will support convection across the entire area this afternoon and evening. The northern stream trough and associated upper jet exits the area tonight, with the main focus shifting to an upper low currently over central California. This upper low will slowly shift southward into S. This upper low should have little impact on the area except across the extreme south. Wind fields trough the atmosphere will much weaker than today, so thunderstorms are expected to be less widespread and overall weaker.
An upper level ridge over the Pacific Northwest will continue to influence western Washington through the weekend. The ridge will then weaken on Monday as an upper level low starts to drop down along the British Columbia coastline from the Gulf of Alaska. Wet, unsettled, and cooler conditions return on Monday and will persist through much of the week as the upper level low remains the dominant influence across the Pacific Northwest.
124 AM PDT Sun May 16 2021 Low pressure will move southeastward across the region today with showers and thunderstorms a good bet over the Sierra and Indian Wells Valley this afternoon. As the low moves east into the Four Corners region on Monday, left over moisture over the Sierra will allow for some additional afternoon showers and thunderstorms.
Looks like mainly dry conds for the FA on Sun as the aforementioned wrm front lifts further to the N and weak upr ridging blds briefly ovr the region.
233 AM EDT Sun May 16 2021 Short term (Today through Monday): Latest model and sfc analysis data show a stalled frontal boundary near the Florida Keys, while high pressure dominates much of the SE CONUS. Pressure gradients between the high and the boundary will remain tight enough to keep periods of breezy conditions across SoFlo today with prevailing NE flow in place. For high temperatures, the breezy NE winds should keep the east coast a little cooler than normal with max values in the low to mid 80s, while the interior and west coast should reach the upper 80s to low 90s.
Tomorrow is shaping up to be quite warm, with 00Z models coming in slightly warmer for eastern ND, where highs in the mid 80s is not out-of-the-question. Temperatures Sunday should be even warmer than today with 80s likley in the RRV. While mixed layer Td values aren't particularly low the warmer temperatures will still result in minimum RH values in the teens to lower 20s. The first half of the workweek will be quiet, as an upper level ridge holds tightly to the region. Temperatures will warm to above normal levels, with highs on Monday reaching the low to mid 80s in areas along and north of highway 2.
603 AM CDT Sun May 16 2021 Central Illinois will see increasing chances of showers and a few thunderstorms from the southwest later this afternoon and tonight, as a warm front approaches southwest IL tonight. The warm front will move into southwest IL on Monday and likely bring showers and some thunderstorms to central IL out ahead of it.
1058 AM EDT Sun May 16 2021 Atlantic high pressure will prevail this week. Temperatures have already warmed rapidly with most areas already in the low to mid 70s. Low-level thickness from the 12z KCHS RAOB supports highs in the low 80s away from the immediate coastline, which would mean we will realize an impressive 30 degree diurnal range today. At the surface, dry high pressure over the East Coast will prevail through the period.
TWH A rather weak overall flow pattern will continue over our region while an upper low over the west coast drifts toward Arizona. Temperatures will be warmer today with highs in the 70s. The upper low will drop into northern Arizona Monday and help push a little moisture further north again into western Montana.
Thanks to the increased moisture, cloud cover and southerly flow, overnight lows will be rather muggy with readings ranging from the mid 60s in the west to the lower 60s/some upper 50s remaining in the east.
A closed low now over the southern San Joaquin valley is continuing to move southeast, and the associated instability and short waves rotating around it are going southeast with it. A ridge flopping over the top of it is now the dominant weather factor over the Medford forecast area. This ridge will support a dry and hot day over almost all of the inland areas, where today will be the hottest day of the coming week. The coast will be cooler due to the dominance of the marine layer. The ridge will weaken beginning today, and flow aloft will become southwesterly Monday as the upstream long wave upper trough approaches the coast.
316 AM PDT Sun May 16 2021 An area of low pressure will move into Southern California over the next couple of days, maintaining cool conditions with gusty onshore winds over the mountains and deserts, and a deep marine layer over the coast and western valleys.
This will allow temperatures to warm into the mid 70s, while likely greater cloud cover to the north will keep temperatures slightly cooler.
405 AM CDT Sun May 16 2021 Widespread convection across the High Plains yesterday marks the presence of weak mid level troughing which will move slowly eastward today.
We continue to see weakening flow in the mid levels and the best lapse rates are progged to remain on our western flank or further west across the high plains which is expected to result in less severe weather today when compared to the past couple of days across our forecast area. Confidence in the high plains storms drifting east tonight remains low and the better nocturnal signal may clip our southeast Kansas counties or remain just east of our forecast area but forecast confidence remains fairly low for this period. A slow moving mid/upper trough over the Southwest will gradually approach the region as we move through the beginning of the week. Meanwhile storms are expected to redevelop over central Kansas along a warm front boundary this afternoon, then shift northward this evening.
508 AM PDT Sun May 16 2021 An area of low pressure will move into Southern California over the next couple of days, maintaining cool conditions with gusty onshore winds over the mountains and deserts, and a deep marine layer over the coast and western valleys.
645 AM CDT Sun May 16 2021 12Z TAFS VFR ceilings will prevail through the day before lowering to MVFR after midnight as showers and thunderstorms develop in association with the approach of an upper level trough. The tightening pressure gradient between the surface reflection of this trough and high pressure centered over the eastern U. Much more widespread convection is expected Monday as the trof axis becomes centered over the region.
1006 AM EDT Sun May 16 2021 High pressure to the north will continue an east-northeast flow across the region, with speeds still breezy up to 15 to 20 mph, especially at the coast.
Low pressure approaching the state will bring dry and windy weather today, with a decrease in daytime temperatures.
608 AM EDT Sun May 16 2021 A weak upper level disturbance moves through the area today, otherwise high pressure will strengthen through the upcoming week. Highs today will top out in the lower to mid 70s.
Later today and tonight, short term model guidance start bringing in drier and more stable air into the region from the west as the 500 mb closed low over the Desert Sw pushes into New Mex and West TX by Mon Night.
High pressure over the region and very warm temperatures will dominate the weather through Monday. High temperatures in valley locations will reach the low to mid 80s today and Monday.
325 AM PDT Sun May 16 2021 Low pressure will bring another round of showers and thunderstorms today.
1040 AM EDT Sun May 16 2021 Isolated showers were detected in the Straits south of the Lower Keys and Dry Tortugas, otherwise skies were partly sunny under mostly cirrus with continuing breezy northeast winds. High pressure continues to sprawl along the eastern seaboard with a tight, near 7 mb pressure gradient between Jacksonville to Havana. High pressure over the western Atlantic will allow for a return to winds near 20 knots tonight over all coastal waters.
636 AM EDT Sun May 16 2021 High pressure at the surface and aloft will drive sensible weather through the week.
Cooler than normal temperatures are forecast today as marine stratus intrudes inland again.
High pressure remains in control with the center shifted a bit further east than this time yesterday. High pressure remains in control, leading to breezy ENE winds.
Later tonight, showers and thunderstorms will once again move off the high plains of Texas near the northern panhandle and into western OK likely before midnight.
The only other change from yesterday is the low-end shot at some rain showers in the Southern Middle TN Counties as the remnants of a vort-max continue to meander Ewrd. This will mean that aftn highs will top out a degree or two (at least) higher than yesterday thanks to abundant sunshine, with highs expected in the lower 80s in most locations. Locations in NE AL/Srn Middle TN will top out in the upper 70s in the higher terrain. Latest short term model guidance suggests that the trend of increasing southwesterly flow aloft will continue on Monday and Monday night, as the trough advances further northeastward into eastern MO.
A low pressure system moving through southern Nevada will continue to bring showers and thunderstorms to the most of state again today. The low pressure system moving through southern Nevada will continue to bring active weather to much of central and northern Nevada today.
High pressure over the region and very warm air mass will dominate the weather through Monday. High temperatures in valley locations will reach the low to mid 80s both today and Monday.
730 AM EDT Sun May 16 2021 High pressure will bring a long stretch of seasonable and rain- free weather. Temperatures slowly warm during the week as center of the high pressure shifts east of the area. Ridging across the Plains and a longwave trough over the west- central Atlantic will maintain a northwest mid and upper level flow across the Carolinas.
Quiet conditions were seen early Sunday with 2am temperatures/dewpoints in the low to mid 50s across the CWA. Forecast soundings keep aforementioned inversion in place until late morning/early afternoon and for this reason decided to stay on the low end of temperature guidance today. That being said, temperatures will be warmer compared to yesterday as afternoon highs reach the low 70s. If any cloud breaks develop,then we could be even warmer but is not anticipated.
For this afternoon, looks like some mid to upper level ridging will increase the cap strength and result in mainly dry weather.
735 AM EDT Sun May 16 2021 An upper ridge will build over GA and surrounding states during the short term.
Eventually the highest PoPs will transition to the east and eventually the north. Ceilings should remain VFR at KTYS and KCHA, but warm front will lift north to somewhere near KTRI tonight and expect fog and/or low ceilings to form there late tonight. CD Chattanooga Airport, TN 78 57 83 62 82 / 20 0 0 10 20 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 72 56 80 59 80 / 30 10 10 10 20 Oak Ridge, TN 72 55 80 58 80 / 20 10 10 10 30 Tri Cities Airport, TN 68 55 74 54 77 / 30 30 50 20 30.
Rather non-descript flow pattern over the northern Plains early in the week trends toward a more dominant western trough/eastern ridge by midweek.
Slightly warmer temperatures are expected early this week before another cool down begins mid-week with unsettled weather returning for the end of the week. Satellite imagery shows clear to mostly cloudy skies across NorCal early this morning as the low has drifted slowly to the southeast over central California. The low will move slowly into far southern Nevada and northwest Arizona today. NorCal will remain on its backside with another round of showers and thunderstorms likely to develop over the higher terrain in the afternoon. Storm movement will be more northerly today, so it will be less likely that any make it down into the lower elevations.
Outside of any showers, the low levels will continue to remain dry with ceilings mainly above 5000 feet. Dry weather settles in tonight as the upper level ridge over the Plains builds closer to Lower MI. The low level wind field and associated thermal advection remain weak in this pattern but the building ridge supports a leg up on high temperatures to start the week.
949 AM EDT Sun May 16 2021 High pressure will bring a long stretch of seasonable and rain- free weather. Temperatures slowly warm during the week as center of the high pressure shifts east of the area. Happy Sunday! Ridging across the Plains and a longwave trough over the west- central Atlantic will maintain a northwest mid and upper level flow across the Carolinas.
242 AM PDT Sun May 16 2021 A weather system will pass across the area today and tonight leading to cooler temperatures, breezy conditions, and scattered showers and storms for portions of the area over the next couple of days.
The upper low that helped to bring thunderstorms to the region over the past several days continues to migrate southeast today. In spite of the northerly flow, with the upper ridge building over the region today's highs will be 10 to 15 degrees above normal. The upper ridge weakens tonight into Monday morning as an upper level trough approaches from the west. With the flow becoming more westerly Monday's highs will be cooler than today's, especially closer to the coast.
412 AM CDT Sun May 16 2021 Central Illinois will see increasing chances of showers and a few thunderstorms from the southwest later this afternoon and tonight, as a warm front approaches southwest IL tonight. The warm front will move into southwest IL on Monday and likely bring showers and some thunderstorms to central IL out ahead of it.
The area of showers and thunderstorms across nrn Nebraska this morning is associated with an upper low moving slowly east across ern WY. This upper low should continue moving slowly east today and weaken across nrn Nebraska tonight. A weak inverted h850mb trof should be in place for focus but the missing ingredient for storm development might be upper level support aka.
Short wave trough moving east through western SD and northwest NE has been producing scattered showers and thunderstorms overnight. Emphasis for isolated severe convection this afternoon will shift south and east, with a marginal risk east of a line from Bridgeport to Kimball where surface-based CAPE may exceed 1500 j/kg.
/Issued 405 AM CDT Sun May 16 2021/ Widespread convection across the High Plains yesterday marks the presence of weak mid level troughing which will move slowly eastward today.
331 AM MDT Sun May 16 2021 Short wave trough moving east through western SD and northwest NE has been producing scattered showers and thunderstorms overnight. Emphasis for isolated severe convection this afternoon will shift south and east, with a marginal risk east of a line from Bridgeport to Kimball where surface-based CAPE may exceed 1500 j/kg.
Short term (Today through Monday): Latest model and sfc analysis data show a stalled frontal boundary near the Florida Keys, while high pressure dominates much of the SE CONUS. Pressure gradients between the high and the boundary will remain tight enough to keep periods of breezy conditions across SoFlo today with prevailing NE flow in place. For high temperatures, the breezy NE winds should keep the east coast a little cooler than normal with max values in the low to mid 80s, while the interior and west coast should reach the upper 80s to low 90s.
1020 AM EDT Sun May 16 2021 A front will stall nearby today while an upper level trough impacts the region through Monday. A upper level ridge builds overhead through the rest of the week bringing much warmer conditions to the region. Overall, chance of rain east of the Blue Ridge not looking too promising and, if anything, it would be a trace to one hundredth of an inch.
337 AM MDT Sun May 16 2021 A rather weak overall flow pattern will continue over our region while an upper low over the west coast drifts toward Arizona. Temperatures will be warmer today with highs in the 70s. The upper low will drop into northern Arizona Monday and help push a little moisture further north again into western and central Montana.
Meanwhile, aloft we remain under a quasi-zonal flow with a depressed upper level ridge moving eastward across the Souther Plains.
A passing weather system will bring cooler temperatures and gusty afternoon winds.
Although a few light showers will still be possible in this same region during the afternoon, a mid-level ridge axis is expected to shift eastward across the region from the Lower MS Valley later today, and this along with weakening/backing low-level flow should reduce the chance for light rain even further by late this afternoon. Otherwise, a modest increase in southwesterly flow in the boundary layer will work in conjunction with clearing skies late this morning/early this afternoon to provide another warm day, with highs in the m-u 70s in higher terrain and in the lower 80s in valley locations. Latest short term model guidance suggests that the trend of increasing southwesterly flow aloft will continue on Monday and Monday night, as the trough advances further northeastward into eastern MO.
243 PM EDT Sun May 16 2021 A warm front affects the area first half of the work week, bringing rain chances back to parts of the area starting Monday. High pressure and a notable warming trend start mid-week. Partly could skies should allow temperatures to drop into the mid 40s to low 50s for the lowlands, while the mountains dip into the upper 30s to mid 40s. Warm front currently situated to the southwest of the area will gradually lift northward through the overnight, bringing with it an increasing threat for showers near dawn Monday across the far southern areas. Primarily diurnally driven showers/thundershowers are expected in the short term period with coverage tied to a weakening elevated warm front.
228 PM EDT Sun May 16 2021 A weak warm front slowly drifting across Kentucky will be the main focus of shower and thunderstorm chances during the short term. Overnight showers and storms will develop from the Plains into the Midwest ahead of low pressure over Kansas and a low level jet poking northward into Missouri. Some shower and elevated thunder activity will develop eastward along the warm front, with the best chances for rain locally being over southern Indiana and north central Kentucky. Will go a bit under guidance on the cool side of the warm front, more in the 70 to 75 degree range.
213 PM MDT Sun May 16 2021 The main features across the region are a mid-level shear axis over the north, and some weak diffluence across the south/southwest portions of the forecast area from an upper low over south-central California. By 18Z Monday the upper low is expected to be just south of the Four Corners Region. Diurnal convection is still expected, but the focus will be over the south again closer to the upper low with possibly a weak wave rotating around the upper low clipping the far south. High temperatures are expected to be about 5+ degrees warmer on Monday than highs today.
High temperatures on Monday will reach the mid 70s, to the lower 80s. The period starts of with a trof over the southwest CONUS, ridge over the upper Mississippi valley, and another trof moving into the Pacific NW. The pattern evolution should feature that Pac NW trof digging into the western CONUS. As that occurs, the upper trof over the southwest begins shearing out to the northeast in pieces.
153 PM MDT Sun May 16 2021 19z surface analysis had weak high over northwest half of CWA with weak trough from the central plains into the Black Hills. Water vapour had northern stream energy shearing out over the northern plains and upper low spinning over southwest NV.
Locally heavy rainfall will be possible as a warm frontal boundary lifts into the Midwest, stalling out for the next couple of days.
Weak WAA continues across the Western Great Lakes region this afternoon well in advance of low pressure developing over the Central Plains. Associated warm front extends eastward from the low thru the Mid Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley. Plenty of low/mid moisture/clouds continue to stream into Michigan well north of the warm front. Stronger northern stream flow will continue to drive upper-level ridging across the northern half of the CONUS.
Broad ridging will prevail over and to the east of the area tonight. Expect mostly clear skies overnight with lows ranging from the lower 50s east to near 60 west, where a few more clouds are expected. A disturbance aloft will approach from the northwest, but is expected to rapidly weaken with time as it penetrates the broad ridging over much of the Southeast. Highs will range from the low 80s north and in the higher elevations east to readings in the lower to middle 80s elsewhere.
238 PM CDT Sun May 16 2021 The surface warm front has since passed through the Mid-South and lies just to the north of the KY/TN stateline draped back west through MO. Rain chances for this week continue the downward trend as model guidance and ensembles maintain a building upper ridging across the southeastern CONUS. This will result warmer temperatures and overall limit rain chances.
Weak upper level ridging persists over the region during the period today into Monday. Temperatures will remain warm, generally in the lower 80's for most spots both today and Monday. Lows will be in the lower 60's to perhaps some upper 50's inland tonight.