Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Surface ridging. resulting in sunny skies and warmer than normal October temps. A weak cold front is poised to our west over the Upper Mississippi Valley. Upstream cold front to our west will lean into our CWA overnight into Monday. Temps will be a bit cooler tomorrow thanks to increasing clouds and some cooler air accompanying the front. High temps Monday afternoon will range from the lower 60s in Eastern Upper Michigan to the mid 70s near Saginaw Bay. Pattern Forecast: A mid level wave carving out troughing across the Intermountain West this afternoon will be the primary feature of note through midweek as it closes off and ejects into the central plains Monday night.
411 PM CDT Sun Oct 8 2017 Tonight through Monday: Mid afternoon surface analysis had the low associated with Tropical Depression Nate over northern Alabama. Light rain associated with this low was still being observed over portions of east Mississippi as far south as Meridian. This activity is expected to end by this evening as the low tracks farther to the north northeast. Monday Morning lows will be well above normal again, generally in the lower 70s.
343 PM CDT Sun Oct 8 2017 A trough of low pressure will dig across the Rockies tonight into Monday. This will keep cooler northerly flow in place across the area through this time.
Cold front progged to advance into the area on Monday is seen over Nebraska, with temperatures in the 60s behind and falling as you go northward. How the surface pattern evolves as the upper trof drops southward into the four corners then eastward into the panhandles will be the driver for storm chances Monday afternoon into early evening. All model guidance is fairly progressive with the strong cold front racing through the CWA Monday evening. Sfc based instability remains south of the CWA, with elevated MUCAPE on the NAM being on the higher side of consensus at 1800 J/KG south of Interstate 35. The strong dynamic forcing from the incoming upper trough increases speed and directional shear through the column, in upwards of 60 kts 0-6 KM bulk shear just north of the boundary.
Southerly return flow will increase today which will provide high temps a few degrees warmer than Sat with all sites expected to be in the 80s. Precip will come to an end quickly during the day Tue as the upper low lifts into northern MO by early Tue evening. In addition to increased rainfall chances, much colder air will spill into the area behind the strong cold front. This will allow surface winds to back to the east and northeast on Monday as a strong cold front arrives through the day.
Temps will be very muggy tonight, in the low to mid 70s inland to upper 70s along the coast. Clouds and rain will keep highs on Monday from climbing above the low to mid 80s.
deep layer south-southwest flow will be over our area with low to mid level ridge south of the forecast area. A mid level ridge will be gradually building in from the south and southeast as remnants of Nate pull much further away from the southeast states. Despite ridging building in, still plenty moist for diurnal and sea breeze-driven convection.
High pressure will provide dry weather tonight and Monday.
404 PM EDT Sun Oct 8 2017 WV imagery and RAP analysis indicated a mid/upper level trough over the ern CONUS and a trough from nrn Manitoba into the Rockies resulting in sw flow through the plains and nrn Great Lakes. At the surface, a cold front extended from just west of James Bay through wrn Lake Superior. Monday, high pressure building into the area with anticyclonic nrly flow will bring mostly sunny skies and high temps into the upper 50s west and lower 60s southeast. Above normal temperatures will return towards the end of the week ahead of an approaching cold front.
142 PM EDT Sun Oct 8 2017 Aviation Despite the passage of a cold front last evening, warm weather will continue the next couple days with highs well into the 70 and mostly sunny skies.
This area of precipitation is expected to gradually drift north toward a cold front which is nearly stalled along a line from around PBZ-CMH- CVG. Cut another 2-3 degrees off the highs today as temperatures have been fairly steady.
Nearly the entire state was cloudy free today as high pressure aloft works its magic.
100 PM CDT Sun Oct 8 2017 Another nice fall day is expected across the region today as temperatures climb into the lower 70s with generally light northeasterly winds. Expect a weak cold front to stall across our northwestern counties by late afternoon.
1213 PM CDT Sun Oct 8 2017 A cold front will move eastward across the forecast area early today. Tonight, northern stream short wave trough moves into central and western ND by late at night, with a southern stream trough near the four corners area. For lows, liked the way some of the bias corrected values as well as the GEM picked up on warmer readings than previous forecasts along and west of I 29 due to thick cloud cover.
312 PM PDT Sun Oct 8 2017 Weak cold front will push through the area tonight.
Isolated showers are possible late Monday night along and east of the Interstate 69E corridor as deeper tropical moisture approaches from the southeast at the same time a cold front approaches from the northwest.
Tonight and Monday The latest RAP analysis and satellite/radar imagery show a cold front moving into northwest Wisconsin early this afternoon. The moisture starved cold front will sag southeast across the area from early evening through early overnight. Lows ranging from the low 40s in the north to mid 50s near the Lake. Temps will be cooler than todays readings, and range from near 60 in the north to the mid 60s south.
206 PM MDT Sun Oct 8 2017 Scattered rain and snow showers will dissipate overnight, as high pressure builds over the region.
Showers will continue through the afternoon and into the evening as the trough exits.
However, the lower rain chances won't last long as a new upper level low swings from the Four Corners toward the Midwest.
A cold front will slowly make its way southeast through WI overnight through Monday morning. This is out ahead of an upper trough crossing the northern Plains and central Rocky Mountains. The cooler air and gusty north winds are expected to accelerate down Lake Michigan a little faster than inland, so northeast winds will keep lakeshore areas cooler during the afternoon. Max temperatures will be limited to the mid 60s toward central WI and the lower 70s in southeast WI.
Since clouds will hold over much of the east, we'll go with the lowering of clouds there.
A strong cold front will continue southward across Utah today. Much cooler temperatures will follow the front through Monday.
Upper trough deepens into the southern Rockies tonight where it cuts off and provides Colorado with a Winter Storm. Zonal flow then ensues across the Northern Rockies Monday with a warm front moving east across Montana. With the warm front approaching the area Monday, readings will rebound back up into the 50s, except some upper 40s in the northern and eastern zones. It did seem to diminish the chance of showers late in the week with the next upper trough that moves through.
338 PM CDT Sun Oct 8 2017 Primary forecast focus is on a stout cold front moving through the region tomorrow through tomorrow night. A beautiful Sunday, temperatures have risen into the low 80s across much of Oklahoma to the mid 80s across texoma under clear skies. In response, morning lows will only dip into the lower 60s, with increasing low level moisture across southern into central Oklahoma. Short- range guidance is in decent agreement with the strengthening and push of the 500mb trough down the southern Rockies, forcing a strong cold front into northwestern Oklahoma by tomorrow morning.
The highest winds will occur in the higher elevations of east central Alabama where some trees could still go down.
248 PM EDT Sun Oct 8 2017 As remnants of Nate move through the Tennessee Valley and into the Lower Great Lakes by Monday morning, cloud cover will increase this evening. Low temperatures overnight will range from the middle to upper 50s north of Route 24 and into the lower 60s south. Overnight lows will remain mild with most locations staying around 60F (cooler to the NW with less moisture/clouds).
This is in response to an upper low/trough digging farther south from the Great Basin and into the Four Corners area. Closer to home, this will keep clouds focused over the far southern JRV until late tonight, inhibiting freezing temperatures from occurring. Of a more local effect, will likely see steam fog form near/over Lake Sakakawea late tonight/early Monday morning as the colder air moves over the warmer water. A cold front currently over northern ND, which in this case seems to line up well with the RAP13 850mb 0C isotherm, sags south this evening, shifting through central ND by 03z Monday, and clearing far southern ND including the JRV by 09z Monday. As the low level cold air arrives, BUFKIT soundings shows steep lapse rates commencing in the 950mb-850mb layer.
333 PM CDT Sun Oct 8 2017 Cooler temperatures and early week rain chances are the primary forecast concerns. A broad upper trough extending from Hudson Bay southwest into Idaho will continue to pivot east/southeast with a strong 130 kt upper-level jet dropping down the backside of the trough. A closed low is forecast to develop at the base of the trough overnight as it approaches the Four Corners region.
Today, Sunshine and mixing with 900-925 mb temps around 15C will support max readings into the lower 70s, especially where downslope wsw flow prevails. As a result, western counties and southeast shoreline locations will stay slightly cooler, in the upper 60s. Above normal temperatures will return towards the end of the week ahead of an approaching cold front.
A cold front will bring a wind shift to parts of western Oklahoma after 11 UTC. Gusty north surface winds will form behind the cold front passage after 11 UTC. /issued 317 AM CDT Sun Oct 8 2017/ A return to southerly flow will allow for steady warm-up and moistening ahead of upper trough and stronger cold front, currently progd for Monday afternoon through Monday night. This will be associated with thermal trough Monday night as it sweeps eastward over Kansas and northern portions of Oklahoma.
Meanwhile an upper low will move across nrn NM Mon with a cold front accelerating swd, especially after 00Z/10 when subsidence arrives in wake of said low as it move INVOF SW KS around 03Z/10. A isallobaric anticyclone looks to be maximized across SE NM/PB/Upper Trans Pecos 00Z/10-03Z/10 and points s after 03Z/10. MOS guidance is emphatic that high wind will occur thru GDP Pass Mon night/Tue AM and the high wind watch there looks good. By next Sat-Sun mid level moisture will have a chance to wrap around the mid level anticyclone to e, especially if timing of a shrtwv trof passing the n is favorable.
232 PM CDT Sun Oct 8 2017 Southwest flow aloft has returned to the area ahead of a deepening upper-level trough positioned over the Northern Rockies.
355 PM MDT Sun Oct 8 2017 A developing storm and its cold front will move out of the Northern Rockies and move from north to south across the area tonight and Monday.
The cold front out ahead of it is washing out along the Ohio River this hour, but providing enough convergence for a decent band of moderate rainfall. That dryness will be brief though, as a warm front will start impacting at least our southern zones by late Monday night. Northeast winds ahead of the warm front Monday night should allow our lows to drop to the lower to mid 60s.
1116 AM MDT Sun Oct 8 2017 Upper level analysis has a large trof digging through the northern Rockies. At the surface, the cold front has moved through the entire CWA, with winds out of the west to northwest. Upper trough will continue to dig south along the spine of the Rockies, with the main energy of this system remaining just to the west and south of the area. The upper trof will continue to shift east on Monday, with very light precipitation ending during the morning across far south central SD. Clear and cold conditions are expected Monday night, with freezing temperatures across the entire area. Upper ridging takes over for mid week with mostly sunny skies expected and temperatures rebounding into the 60s by midweek. Another strong trof will develop across the Pacific Northwest later in the week.
Closer to home, west-southwest flow aloft prevailed across the Four-State region, whilst at the sfc calm/variable winds were noted across portions of east TX, southeast OK and southwest AR due to a very weak quasi-stationary cold front /which has commenced to ushering a drier airmass/, while elsewhere light west-southwest winds ensued. Tonight, the weak cold front will wash out and sfc winds will back to the south thus holding on to a bit of low level moisture /PWATS ranging from 0.
555 PM CDT Sun Oct 8 2017 South/southeast winds will continue overnight before a strong cold front enters northwest Oklahoma toward 12Z Monday morning. /ISSUED 338 PM CDT Sun Oct 8 2017/ Primary forecast focus is on a stout cold front moving through the region tomorrow through tomorrow night. A beautiful Sunday, temperatures have risen into the low 80s across much of Oklahoma to the mid 80s across texoma under clear skies. In response, morning lows will only dip into the lower 60s, with increasing low level moisture across southern into central Oklahoma. Short- range guidance is in decent agreement with the strengthening and push of the 500mb trough down the southern Rockies, forcing a strong cold front into northwestern Oklahoma by tomorrow morning.
1120 AM MDT Sun Oct 8 2017 Morning water vapor loop showed the mid/upper level trough digging south into the Great Basin, with the main vorticity maximum located over western MT/northern ID. Upper trough will amplify into Utah by this afternoon with large scale ascent increasing over the CWA between 21-06Z. However, with the trough quickly moving southeastward through the night, the best forcing will move into Colorado by 09Z with precip beginning to let up. Since 2-4 inches are expected over the higher terrain ridges (5000-5500 feet) outside of the Valley, decided to issue a Winter Weather Advisory for all plains zones across southeast Wyoming, in addition to Banner/Kimball counties in the Panhandle. Will keep the Pine Ridge out of a highlight for now with generally 2-3 inches possible.
259 PM EDT Sun Oct 8 2017 An upper-level composite analysis this afternoon reveals a deep layer mean anticyclone centered over the western North Atlantic, with a deep south-southeast flow over the Florida Keys and adjacent coastal waters.
303 PM CDT Sun Oct 8 2017 A cold front will continue shifting east through northwest Wisconsin this afternoon and evening. The clearest conditions for the overall night appear to be in north-central Minnesota, where temperatures should drop into the lower 30s.
An abrupt change in the weather will occur this afternoon and evening as a cold front sweeps across the region bringing strong northerly winds and much cooler temperatures to the area. Latest 20Z mesoanalysis shows the cold front is likely somewhere near a Reno to Ely line. Anticipate that this front will continue to push southward this afternoon and overnight and strengthen as an upper level trough digs in with it. Still think that the wind advisory will easily gust to 40- 50MPH, with higher gusts to 60MPH in the high wind warning areas where north winds typically accelerate.
1258 PM EDT Sun Jul 2 2017 A weak cold front will move across the region early this morning. Did maintain a slight chance across far southern zones into the overnight, but otherwise partly cloudy and modestly cooler/drier. Compressional heating ahead of the frontal passage will bring highs in the lower 90s on Monday, upper 80s coastal zones.
/issued 346 AM CDT Sun Jul 2 2017/ Upper level high pressure dome is centered over the northern Gulf of Mexico this morning. The trough coming ashore the Pacific Coast this morning appears somewhat stronger than guidance had suggested over the past few days. Despite the high's progression westward, the mean flow remains nearly zonal through Sunday though some vorticity remains intact from the southern part of the trough which scoots across the northern periphery of the high. As the high strengthens across the desert southwest, our flow should become more northwesterly with a col between the SW high and the extension of the Bermuda high across the Gulf.
Expect convection to develop in association with this feature and a "warm front" or moisture gradient lifting north from eastern Oklahoma and Arkansas. Again, shear looks to be on the low side, however, we can't rule out a strong wind gust or two.
1046 AM CDT Sun Jul 2 2017 Forecast generally looks good today and just slight modifications to sky cover into this evening and went about 1F warmer for highs today. Weak 1020 mb high pressure over the mid MS and into the Ohio river valley wil continue to influence central/se IL weather with dry wx through sunset. A weak bubble of high pressure will bring mostly sunny and warm conditions to central Illinois today. Based on forecast soundings showing a well-mixed boundary layer up to about 6500-7000ft, afternoon high temperatures will be a couple of degrees warmer than yesterday. Meanwhile further northwest, an approaching cold front will interact with a narrow instability axis to trigger scattered strong thunderstorms across far northern Illinois into central Iowa by late afternoon into early evening.
820 AM EDT Sun Jul 2 2017 High pressure will maintain dry weather today until a cold front returns shower and thunderstorms chances to the area Monday. Otherwise, building surface ridging under a broad upper trough should result in dry and less humid weather today. The broad trough should shift E of the area Tue, as the cold front becomes stationary across Srn OH to WV.
608 AM CDT Sun Jul 2 2017 Early morning satellite imagery showed an amplified pattern in place across the Nation, with the broad trough to our east and ridge axis poking north over the Rockies to our west, leaving the region under the influence of a northwest flow.
/issued 410 AM EDT Sun Jul 2 2017/ SHORT TERM (Today through Independence Day): Deep-layer ridging continues to dominate South Florida weather this weekend, bringing very warm temperatures and slightly below average rainfall coverage. Through the holiday, this pattern will basically remain intact, although the ridge will begin to weaken and its axis drift to the north and east.
945 AM EDT Sun Jul 2 2017 A weak cold front will move across the region early this morning. Latest MSAS has the cold front near a SBY-RIC-DAN line. Did maintain a slight chance across far southern zones into the overnight, but otherwise partly cloudy and modestly cooler/drier. Compressional heating ahead of the frontal passage will bring highs in the lower 90s on Monday, upper 80s coastal zones.
1106 AM CDT Sun Jul 2 2017 with weak troughing continuing aloft.
1018 AM CDT Sun Jul 2 2017 500 mb ridge continued to build overhead this morning. /ISSUED 421 AM CDT Sun Jul 2 2017/ Upper ridging making it's presence known with slightly above normal temperatures and little if any rainfall through the 4th of July holiday.
24 hour trends has many inland locations running a few warmer than yesterday at this time.
1024 AM EDT Sun Jul 2 2017 Aviation section updated High pressure will keep the weather quiet across central Indiana through early Monday.
Satellite and radar images as well as surface observations indicate isolated showers offshore the lower Texas coast this morning with some patchy low clouds across the CWA. VFR conditions will prevail after 15Z as the combination of a 500mb ridge across west Texas and a 500mb ridge across the eastern Gulf of Mexico continues to provide subsidence across the CWA. /issued 351 AM CDT Sun Jul 2 2017/ SHORT TERM (Today through Monday): Low to mid level moisture will continue to remain limited across the CWA today through Monday with a 700mb ridge across the Gulf of Mexico keeping deeper moisture well to the south across the Bay of Campeche.
Over the next several days, a region of upper-level high pressure will relocate from the eastern Pacific to roughly the four corners region, where it will become nearly stationary and gradually build. Meanwhile, a large and persistent trough will develop across the northern Pacific, placing northwest California squarely within a regime of dry southwest flow aloft.
644 AM CDT Sun Jul 2 2017 High pressure centered over southwest Missouri will drift east today and tonight. There should be plenty of sunshine today on the western side of the ridge. Expect temperatures across central and northeast Missouri into west central Illinois to be several degrees warmer today than yesterday due to the strong sunshine and increasing return flow on the back side of the ridge.
Early this morning clear skies and high pressure were the name of the tune. To our south, high pressure was sliding to the south and east. This high pressure is expected to aide in the return of moisture to the area. Looking at the 00z OAX sounding, it appears that there is enough deep moisture that advection around the high pressure will be enough to bring us more moisture. The NAM is the highest with instability and would suggest a threat for severe hail.
Further west satellite imagery is indicating strong high pressure folding into the region, with clear skies and drying conditions. An upper level ridge will begin expanding over the intermountain region of the western U. The very warm upper level high pressure ridge which is normally anchored over the western U.
1030 AM EDT Sun Jul 2 2017 As high pressure moves into the area today, dry weather is expected. Warmer and more humid conditions are expected going into the new week, with occasional chances for storms. Otherwise, a weak area of high pressure will slide east across the region through this afternoon. As high pressure shifts southeast of the region tonight, its influence will still keep relatively calm and dry conditions over most of the ILN CWA overnight. However, attention will also turn to a weak pressure trough / wind shift moving south across the lower peninsula of Michigan.
Otherwise, clouds will thin in spots and highs today will be mostly in the 80s, with some locations seeing around 90 to the lower 90s.
1125 AM EDT Sun Jul 2 2017 Hydro A cold front will move through this afternoon with a few showers and thunderstorms. Then high pressure will provide fair weather for much of Lower Michigan through July 4th.
1201 PM EDT Sun Jul 2 2017 High pressure will maintain dry weathe this afternoon until a cold front returns shower and thunderstorms chances to the area Monday. The broad trough should shift E of the area Tue, as the cold front becomes stationary across Srn OH to WV.
1030 AM EDT Sun Jul 2 2017 A ridge of high pressure overhead will help to make the humidity lower than the past few days. A cold front will push across the state from north to south on Monday. Weaken high pressure ridge nosing in from the SW, and rather warm mid-upper levels with meager mid level lapse rates should help to negate most deeper convection. The most likely locations to see a stray TSRA would be across the northern tier of PA that will be at the southern edge of some cooler mid-upper level air and steeper mid-level lapse rates.
1009 AM EDT Sun Jul 2 2017 A weak cold front moves east of the area this morning, followed by another this evening and yet another Monday evening.
Hickford Upper ridge currently over Eastern Montana will move to the east this morning. Ridge rebounds on Monday with warmer temperatures which will start a prolonged stretch of hot and mainly dry weather.
622 AM CDT Sun Jul 2 2017 High pressure will build into the region.
A weakening trough will cross the forecast area today. High pressure will rebuild over the region beginning late Monday, with moisture increasing for the middle and latter part of the upcoming week.
As a result, it should burn off much quicker today, allowing for more sunshine and warmer temperatures for that area. In fact, the whole area will be warmer today as ridging builds and the thermal trough strengthens.