Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
520 PM MDT Wed Nov 3 2021 Clouds continue to linger across the northern and central mountains this afternoon, with maybe a shower or two still possible across the highest peaks. This won't be the case tomorrow, as the ridge currently building into the Intermountain West will strengthen and move east, bringing warmer air and even drier conditions.
Latest surface analysis places an expansive 1033mb high pressure over much of the eastern US while satellite shows mid and high cloud streaming over the OH Valley. Over the next 24 hours, the upper level trough axis will continue to push east resulting in amplified meridional flow with winds aloft going from westerly to northwesterly. Mostly clear skies with light NNE winds will continue Thursday as the high centers itself over the OH Valley. Expect afternoon highs to limp into the low 50s.
High pressure ridge axis is shifting east of California today as an upper level trough approaches the West Coast. Visible satellite imagery shows high clouds streaming into the northern counties today ahead of the approaching trough. This trough will bring the next round of precipitation to northern California tonight. Daytime temperatures will be a few degrees cooler, but clear skies will cause much cooler overnight temperatures.
733 PM EDT Wed Nov 3 2021 Dry weather is forecast to persist through the weekend as high pressure slowly works across the Ohio Valley. Expect temperatures to exhibit a gradual warming trend as the high travels east. Warmer temps under clouds and cooler where skies go entirely clear. High pressure will drive the weather to be sunny and dry for another day with ever so slightly warmer temperatures rising into the upper 40s to around 50 degrees.
605 PM CDT Wed Nov 3 2021 Sprawling high pressure stretches from the Great Plains across the eastern half of the CONUS this afternoon. This high is sitting beneath a long wave trough aloft which will take the rest of the week to drift off the East Coast. There were even some freezing temperatures reported in protected areas across the eastern Ozarks this morning.
The lower 50s are seen in observations, mainly where some spotty breaks in cloud cover have occurred and the sun has peaked through.
/Issued 317 PM CDT Wed Nov 3 2021/ The extent of clearing tonight presents the biggest forecast problem with respect to freeze headlines and also possible fog/freezing fog development.
Upper level ridging currently over the western CONUS will gradually spread across and into the Northern Plains tonight and Thursday.
Early this afternoon, the Northern Plains sit between an upper level longwave trough over eastern Canada and a building ridge over the western CONUS. Expect another night of sub-freezing temperatures, with lows mainly in the 20s. Increasing southerly flow in response to rising heights will allow temperatures to rise above normal, with Thursday afternoon highs reaching the lower 60s in southwest North Dakota, and 50s elsewhere.
Max temps a bit cooler with the extra cloud cover putting highs in the upper 70s to low 80s. High astronomical tides, occurring at the same time as strong northeast winds that develop behind the cold front, could lead to coastal flooding in some locations this weekend.
Nam soundings do indicate SBcapes aoa 50 J/kg underneath the trough axis on Thursday (15z Rap suggests over 100 J/kg), with half of the cape in the DGZ, as EQL heights reach 8 kft. to around freezing in the urban heat island of Detroit.
923 PM EDT Wed Nov 3 2021 Dry weather is forecast to persist through the weekend as high pressure slowly works across the Ohio Valley. Expect temperatures to exhibit a gradual warming trend as the high travels east. High pressure will drive the weather to be sunny and dry for another day with ever so slightly warmer temperatures rising into the upper 40s to around 50 degrees.
At the surface, high pressure will remain centered across the Ohio Valley with the ridge stretching from northern TX to the far northeast. This ridge will also keep the weak frontal boundary over the southeastern U.
Broad upper level trough will move through the Ohio Valley through tomorrow. Embedded is a short wave trough to the south that is providing some very light showers across portions of Middle TN. This trough is brining with it the advertised colder air.
At the surface, the CWA finds itself on the western edge of high pressure, centered over central Illinois with southwesterly winds at the surface. With low temperatures hovering around freezing for much of the area, freezing fog isn't out of the question just before sunrise (although fog development could hold temperatures just above freezing with the active latent heat release).
645 PM CDT Wed Nov 3 2021 200 PM CDT Wed Nov 03 Our cool spell continues in the short term, although temperatures tonight should end up a few degrees "warmer" than they were this morning thanks to an anticipated thickening stratus deck with time. Things will clear out through Thursday afternoon and overnight yielding another seasonably cool night with sub-freezing temperatures nearly area-wide.
939 PM EDT Wed Nov 3 2021 High pressure will build eastward from the Midwest through Thursday.
The cold front is pushing southward towards the coast, it just passed through Wharton and will push offshore late this afternoon.
At the surface, high pressure is situated over the Mid Mississippi Valley into the southwestern Great Lakes. Any location that is able to see clearing overnight will likely see temps several degrees cooler. This will allow Lee troughing to continue to develop and will get the area back into some light return flow and warming temps. Warming trend will continue into Fri as a weak upper impulse slides across the Northern Plains which will further reinforce Lee troughing. By Sat morning, upper impulse will be moving into the Great Lakes region with some upper ridging moving into the area.
High pressure is in place over the region, in the favorable region of subsidence on the back side of a large upper trough over the eastern CONUS. This should keep temperatures a bit warmer than last night, with lows generally in the mid 30s. Tomorrow, skies will begin to clear more as high pressure slides farther east and winds become more southerly.
303 PM MDT Wed Nov 3 2021 Clouds continue to linger across the northern and central mountains this afternoon, with maybe a shower or two still possible across the highest peaks. This won't be the case tomorrow, as the ridge currently building into the Intermountain West will strengthen and move east, bringing warmer air and even drier conditions.
The low clouds that have been entrenched along and south of I-40 for much of the day continue to slowly erode, and KROW will likely see an improvement in cigs late this evening. Patchy fog with decreased vsbys will also be possible with the highest confidence at KROW. Then a ridge of high pressure will cross with warming temperatures during the latter half of the week and the weekend.
Temperatures will begin to warm into the high 40s to mid-50s on Thursday as 850mb warm air advection ramps up.
Warmer than average temperatures are expected through the weekend. At this time it appears that the warmest days will be Fri and Sat with lower 90s across the lower deserts from Tucson west.
Large upper ridge still over the western US, with the trough in our east that is relatively stationary. This will provide us with some weak warm advection overnight, keeping the clouds around and allowing temperatures to stay a little warmer than they were last night. Upper level flow will be northwesterly, as the ridge in the west slowly begins to break down and sag southeast. With weak warm advection in the lower levels, we will likely see another day with a mix of clouds and sun. With increasing southerly flow in the low levels, we can start to see some gustier winds, as we begin to mix in winds from aloft. Upper ridge moves over the region and also starts to deteriorate, as a potent little wave moves in from the northwest.
This precipitation is expected to wane by evening as a ridge of high pressure at the surface shifts over the region. Widespread cloud cover associated with an 850 mb thermal trough is also expected to shift east and scatter out this evening, though WAA may bring more cloud cover to the southwest part of the forecast area late tonight. Upper level ridging will occur across the western Great Lakes region on Thursday, resulting in a dry day.
636 PM CDT Wed Nov 3 2021 Low clouds overnight will continue to keep conditions in the MVFR/IFR range with LIFR possible in the hours around sunrise tomorrow when fog or freezing fog is expected to develop and drop visibilities to as low as a quarter of a mile. The timing of clouds clearing will have an impact on temps with many areas possibly dipping to near/below freezing.
826 PM MDT Wed Nov 3 2021 High pressure over the region will continue to bring dry and mild conditions this evening leading into Thursday.
High pressure will build back into the region today.
However, these clouds will likely be our saving grace in keeping our temperatures fairly comfortably above the freezing mark.
The bigger story continues to be the cold air and expected freezing temperatures tonight. However, if the clouds decide to hang tough, those freezing temperatures could be hard to come by. Either way, it's still going to be very chilly by daybreak and even if we don't get to the freezing mark, frost will definitely be likely. The sun returns tomorrow but we'll only top out in the low 50s, so if you've been procrastinating on getting the jacket out, you might as well do it now.
During the day tomorrow, the main trough axis will push southeast into the Hill Country. Despite the increasing sunshine tomorrow afternoon, high temperatures will only reach the low to mid 50s.
High pressure will bring dry and stable condition across the area through the remainder of the week, with a weak weather system expected to pass north of the area late Thursday.
High pressure over the region will continue to bring dry and mild conditions this evening leading into Thursday.
635 PM CDT Wed Nov 3 2021 High pressure will continue to keep our weather quiet for a few more days. This will result in highs returning to the lower 50s as early as Thursday, and reaching the 60s later this weekend. The center of the high pressure remains just west of the CWA, and should drift through our area tonight. However, with a southwest flow setting up behind the high, more of the CWA should be able to reach around 50 degrees for Thursday's highs. Temperatures rise into the 60s this weekend as upper level ridging amplifies across the central U. High pressure will be over central Illinois through the period providing light and variable winds and VFR conditions. As the ridge axis settles to the southeast, a light SSW wind will develop at PIA/BMI Thursday.
Tranquil conditions will continue tonight into Thursday as weak ridging aloft moves out of the Colorado Rockies into the Western High Plains. Although a quickly developing lee side trough in eastern Colorado will return a southwesterly flow to western Kansas by late this evening, winds are expected to remain fairly light. Combined with clearing skies across much of the area, expect lows down into the mid/upper 20s(F) in west central Kansas and portions of southwest Kansas with the lower/mid 30s(F) more likely toward south central Kansas. High temperatures will continue a warming trend Thursday as prevailing southerlies pull warmer air into the high plains with H85 temperatures ranging from around 10C in central Kansas to a little above 12C out near the Colorado border.
Prev Disc: Showers will exit off the coast tonight and skies will clear behind the trough. As winds diminish into the overnight hours, temperatures will plummet to what may become the coldest night of the season so far, with low temperatures falling into the upper 20s Downeast and the lower 20s across the north. High pressure will most of the region on Thursday. High temperatures will be similar to today, with highs around 40 degrees across the north and slightly cooler Downeast with highs into the mid-40s.
Current fcst of lows in the low to mid 20s look good. Minimal impacts are expected in the short term, as ridging continues to influence our overall weather pattern. Temperatures will continue to warm through the end of the week, as westerly winds advect warmer air into the area. Thursday will be slightly different, but warmer.
1032 PM EDT Wed Nov 3 2021 Currently - A large high pressure system is located over the eastern United States. A subtle surface through lower level trough is riding westward across our area within the southern flank of this high. Expect overnight lows broadly in the lower 70s with dew points holding near 70.
506 PM MDT Wed Nov 3 2021 19Z analysis showed an upper ridge building over the region from the west. The upper ridge will continue to build over the region tonight and on Thursday resulting in high temperatures on Thursday ranging from 5 to 10F warmer than average, with periods of mid/high clouds.
Cold front continues to slide south toward the coast this evening, with LA sites reporting N-NE winds. This activity will likely struggle to reach LFT/ARA where the lower levels have been relatively drier.
Yesterday's cold front is currently to the south of the region and is interacting with a pocket of higher instability just offshore the Deep South Texas coast (per LAPS analysis). Low level moisture trapped beneath an inversion will lead to cloudy skies today which will keep our temperatures on the cooler side.
138 AM MDT Thu Nov 4 2021 The latest analysis has an upper ridge across the lee of the Rockies with an upper low off the WA Coast. Considerable high clouds were streaming toward the CWA, but much of these were dissipating as they are coming off the Rockies downstream of the ridge, leaving clear skies across the CWA at the moment. A low- level thermal ridge over the CWA will lead to a mild day and another mild night Thursday night/Friday morning. No major impactful weather is expected over the coming week, with the main item being gusty northwest winds behind a cold front on Friday.
High pressure at the surface will remain a significant influence.
Breezy conditions can be expected for Friday, which will make it feel cooler than the observed temperatures. This will place northeast Wisconsin on the inflection point between the departing upper-level trough to the east and ridging to the west. Tonight and Friday: Upper-level ridging will continue to increase across the area through this time period, allowing the steady warming trend to continue.
At 500 mb a trough extended from the Great Lakes down into TX, a ridge extended from southern CA up into Saskatchewan/Manitoba, and another trough was crashing into the Pacific Northwest. South/southwest winds and a warmer boundary layer should help push highs to the lower and mid 50s in western IA, ranging to around 60 west of Highway 81 in eastern NE.
This is also keeping temps above freezing so far at least, but as we still have some time before sunrise will allow the current freeze warning to run as is with temps falling through the 30s. A trend toward warmer temperatures will commence Friday with increasing southerly low level flow and rising heights across the southern plains.
Most locations experienced temperatures in the low to mid 30s, under partly cloudy skies and calm winds. Mid level heights will steadily rise from Friday into next work week as a broad ridge of upper level high pressure builds in from the west. As deep troughing continues over the southeast portion of the United States, Gulf moisture will be scoured out with northerly trajectories persisting through the Yucatan Peninsula.
233 AM CDT Thu Nov 4 2021 The deep trough that brought the cold weather to the CWA for the past week is now pushing off into Middle Mississippi Valley this morning.
256 AM EDT Thu Nov 4 2021 Surface analysis early this morning shows strong high pressure in place stretching from NY state to Indiana and then to SE MO. Aloft water vapor shows a trough over the Great Lakes with an associated trough axis stretching SW across Illinois and MO. Strong ridging was found across the Rockies along with subsidence across the plains. The models suggest the trough axis aloft will push east of Indiana this afternoon and ridging will build across the northern plains. Given the slight increase in 850mb temps will trend highs slightly warmer than persistence. Ridging over the plains states is expected to make progress to the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley by Friday afternoon.
247 AM EDT Thu Nov 4 2021 An upper level trough will swing over the region this morning, bringing a few thin high clouds in addition to the lingering thin cirrus exiting the Lake Cumberland region. Temperatures will quickly jump back above freezing mid-morning and max out in the low to mid 50s this afternoon. Nevertheless, tonight will again be chilly with lows below freezing.
The ridging aloft will also support the beginning of a warming trend.
Warm and dry weekend ahead with a ridge axis building northward across the central CONUS bringing a southeasterly flow across Wyoming.
Lows will dip below freezing in much of our CWA for the next several nights, thus warranting a Freeze Warning for all of our AR, MO, TN, and northern MS counties from 1AM-9AM CDT on Friday morning. High pressure will settle in over the weekend, encouraging more nighttime radiational cooling due to clear skies and light winds at night.
220 AM MDT Thu Nov 4 2021 An upper ridge will be over eastern Montana today with a thermal ridge. Temperatures have been warmer than the models and ensembles have been forecasting lately and this trend should continue today. Will see some mid and high clouds at times today as mid and high level moisture moves over the ridge. A cold front moves through the area tonight with enough moisture for a chance of rain showers. Gusty west winds are expected behind the cold front on Friday and a Lake Wind Advisory is likely for Fort Peck Lake. Highs on Friday will be 5 to 10 degrees cooler than today.
141 AM EDT Thu Nov 4 2021 Dry weather is forecast to persist through the weekend as high pressure slowly works across the Ohio Valley. Expect temperatures to exhibit a gradual warming trend as the high travels east. High pressure will drive the weather to be sunny and dry for another day with ever so slightly warmer temperatures rising into the upper 40s to around 50 degrees.
The cold front continues to move slowly southward. Thursday night will be dry with high pressure moving in. The airmass behind the front is much cooler and drier.
An elongated positive tilt upper level trough will continue to slowly move toward the area through tonight. The upper level trough will split on Thursday with the northern portions ejecting rapidly northeast while the southern portions remains over the western Gulf into Louisiana. An isolated shower will be possible near the coast on Friday, however the higher rain chances remain offshore. Highs Thursday and Friday will range from the mid to upper 60s even low 70s along and southeast of I-65 and highs in the low 60s northwest of I-65.
West of the line, where skies have cleared, temperatures have dropped to and below the freezing mark at most locations, with mid-upper 20s in spots across the southwest Texas Panhandle and northwest South Plains. Where skies have cleared and temperatures are falling into the dewpoint, we could see areas of fog and freezing fog form, though weak downslope flow could tend to mitigate this somewhat. The return of sunshine and light southerly breezes this afternoon will promote a nice warm up, though highs will end up 5-10 degrees below average (but around 15 degrees warmer than yesterday). An upper-level ridge will slide east towards the region Friday, increasing upper heights.
Where skies do fully clear early this morning, they will have the risk for the development of fog/freezing fog toward morning. The timing of clouds clearing will have an impact on temps with many areas possibly dipping to near/below freezing.
1024 PM CDT Wed Nov 3 2021 Sprawling high pressure stretches from the Great Plains across the eastern half of the CONUS this afternoon. This high is sitting beneath a long wave trough aloft which will take the rest of the week to drift off the East Coast. There were even some freezing temperatures reported in protected areas across the eastern Ozarks this morning.
The south winds hold up tonight, so despite having minimal cloud cover, lows should stay above freezing. For at least most of Friday, the FA should be in the warm sector, before late in the day when a cold front pushes in. Timing of these features will be key, but often there is still good warming even as the cold front moves in (with the push of southwest to west winds).
Minimal impacts are expected in the short term, as ridging continues to influence our overall weather pattern. Temperatures will continue to warm through the end of the week, as westerly winds advect warmer air into the area. Thursday will be slightly different, but warmer.
However, these clouds will likely be our saving grace in keeping our temperatures fairly comfortably above the freezing mark. A large high pressure drops southward from the Great Lakes region Thursday night into Friday morning. Friday into Friday night, upper level ridging builds eastward into the area. This should bring more sunshine and warmer temperatures back to the region.
This will occur while a flattening midlevel ridge approaches and overspreads the area through Thursday. Any lingering precipitation over the eastern mountains should dissipate by early this evening, as subsidence downstream of the ridge continues overspreading the forecast area. For tonight, clear skies supporting efficient radiational cooling will yield sub- freezing low temperatures across most of the region. Overnight low temperatures tonight are expected to range from the upper teens across the San Luis Valley and across portions of the highest terrain, with readings in the 20s and lower 30s elsewhere. There will be a small chance for patchy freezing fog to affect the San Luis Valley late tonight into Thursday morning, in association with the residual stable, cold air mass.
307 AM EDT Thu Nov 4 2021 High pressure and a dry airmass will remain in place across the region through the weekend. Clouds should then decrease from the west through the afternoon as we get on the back side of the mid level trough axis. The high will begin to shift slowly east through the day on Friday. The position of the high will allow surface winds to shift from the south, but the weak pressure gradient will keep winds light. With the widespread subsidence, skies continue to remain mostly clear, offering a favorable radiative cooling setup to allow lows to dip below freezing once again.
With the clear skies and relatively light winds, temperatures are expected to be cooler than last night with lows in the 20's and maybe a few lower 30's. Tomorrow, ridging at 500mb begins to move into the area from the Rocky Mountain region. While the winds will still drop to speeds of 5-10mph, they will still help the relatively warmer air mass in place keep lows above freezing for most of the area.
1103 PM CDT Wed Nov 3 2021 The short term forecast remains unchanged as high pressure remains dominant over the central CONUS, sliding eastwards towards the end of the period that will do little besides increase winds later in the day on Thursday into Friday.
Model soundings indicate that most of this moisture is in the low and mid-levels. With this persistent cloud cover, expect cooler highs across northeast Alabama. Highs will range from the low 50s across northeast Alabama to the mid to upper 50s for northwest Alabama and southern middle Tennessee. Temperatures will drop around to just below freezing across southern middle Tennessee and have issued a freeze warning for Franklin, Moore, and Lincoln counties in Tennessee. Do not expect below freezing temperatures across Alabama. Overnight lows tonight will range from the low 30s to the low 40s.