Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
High pressure will follow and build from the mid MS Valley east to the middle Atlantic states Thu and Fri. Expect low temperatures a few degrees warmer than last night given the warmer daytime highs observed today. Lows generally in the low to mid 60s. An amplifying mid/upper level trough Tuesday over the Great Lakes will propel a sfc cold front southeast toward central NC. This trough will also back the mid-upper level flow to a sw direction and begin to pump Gulf moisture into our region. Tuesday night, the proximity of the mid level trough and attendant sfc front will lead to an increase in PoPs across the region west-to- east.
An approaching cold front will push through the area today and will exit by early this evening. As the upper trough digs into the region tonight, showers will linger especially east and northeast areas, aided by divergence aloft associated with the right entrance region of the upper jet.
338 AM EDT Tue Sep 5 2017 Much cooler conditions are expected today with highs generally in the upper 60s to near 70. A few light rain showers are possible during the day but much better chances for rain are expected overnight into Wednesday with the highest chances near Lake Michigan.
Modest moisture levels will keep a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms mainly over the higher terrain of eastern and central Arizona through the middle of this week.
As a result, pulled all formal mention of measurable PoPs for the overnight/early morning hours, but did leave in a generic "chance of sprinkles" for parts of our far southwest, mainly southwest of a line from Cambridge-Smith Center-Beloit, just in case light precip does form a touch farther northeast than models currently depict. Northerly flow and below normal temperatures are anticipated to start the extended periods as an amplified area of high pressure stretches into the Pacific Northwest. This ridge is anticipated to give way to an upper level disturbance late in the week.
542 AM EDT Tue Sep 5 2017 A cold front will progress very slowly across the state during the day Tuesday, bringing showers and some strong thunderstorms.
/Today through Tonight/ An amplifying upper ridge across the western CONUS combined with a a large upper low just south of Hudson Bay, will lead to a large trough being carved out across the eastern CONUS. A large area of high pressure will move into the Dakotas and Nebraska tonight.
Strong cold front dropping SE into the Ohio Valley overnight.
230 AM CDT Tue Sep 5 2017 Cold front currently bisects the CWA with ongoing convection across the mid section of the area. as a large upper trough digs deeper into the deep south today. We will see highs at least 10 degrees cooler today than yesterday with readings mainly in the mid to upper 70s. Light winds and mostly clear skies will result in lows plummeting into the lower 50s tonight. Any cloudiness will also help keep temperatures down as well, which will struggle to get out of the lower to mid 70s as it is. Cooler readings will be found in the eastern sections with southeast MO being the warmest.
Forecast - The ridge to our north will be assaulted daily by day time heating over the peninsula while also gradually weakening due to a trough digging into the southeastern United States. The lower level swath of moisture near our area will gradually ease off west and northwestward by this evening.
314 AM CDT Tue Sep 5 2017 The long awaited cold front was located across Central Oklahoma at 230 AM. Moisture and large scale forcing for ascent associated with a long wave trough will be best generally east and northeast of the forecast area. All precipitation should end by sunrise Wednesday with increasing large scale subsidence and cold/dry air advection in the low levels of the atmosphere. Upper level high pressure will build over the Central and Southern Plains Wednesday through the weekend, keeping dry and subsident air in place. /Issued 1151 PM CDT Mon Sep 4 2017/ /06Z TAFs/ A cold front continues down the Southern Plains heading for North and Central Texas. South winds overnight will turn westerly in the morning as the front approaches, and then northerly with a pre-frontal trough.
621 AM EDT Tue Sep 5 2017 High pressure will remain off the coast today while a cold front approaches from the northwest.
This evening's surface analysis showed a cold front moving southeastward across the Upper Midwest and Central Plains, and a weak area of high pressure across the Southeast. Upper level troughing will deepen over the eastern CONUS, pushing a cold front into the southeast. The cold front will reach our area Wednesday, exiting the area Wednesday night. Highs will be in the upper 80s once again tomorrow, with Tuesday night lows in the low 70s. On Wednesday, temperatures will be moderated by cloud coverage and peak in the mid to upper 80s, then drop into the 60s behind the cold front.
Broken line of storms currently stretches from northwestern Ohio to central Missouri ahead of a strong cold front that is advancing toward the region. A strong cold front will approach the Ohio Valley late tonight bringing a broken line of showers/storms to southern IN/central KY late tonight through Tues morning. The cold front and storms should push through Tues morning with lingering post-frontal showers slowly moving out Tues afternoon. Tuesday highs should fall back into the lower 70s. Mainly dry conditions are expected Tue night with lows dropping into the lower 50s with a few upper 40s readings expected.
Main cold front continues to push east away from Michigan early this morning. Two separate waves riding SE thru the deep upper level trough axis are providing enough synoptic support to produce areas of shower activity. ushering even cooler air into the region while shifting winds to a more northerly direction. Overnight lows will generally cool into the low to mid 40s.
Aloft, a highly amplified ridge to the west of us will continue to usher in much cooler temperatures.
There was little backing of winds at low levels, but decent deep layer shear and some turning and considerable speed increases in the lowest 1-3 km would support organized convection and the continued threat of severe storms, mainly from wind and hail. - Lenning 129 PM CDT The upper air pattern will remain meridional with an expansive ridge across the west. The anomalously deep upper trough across the Great Lakes region will take a nose dive southward into the heart of the Midwest Tuesday night into Wednesday, bringing in a secondary surge of autumn-like air into the region.
While eyes remain on Irma in the Atlantic, we will see a legitimate cold front move through the area beginning this afternoon and then exiting by Wednesday afternoon.
Beyond the 24 hour point a cold front will move through the region turning winds to the north or northeast. Low temperatures tonight should be a little warmer with lows in the middle 60s to lower 70s. Southerly flow and increasing dewpoints will be the cause for the slightly warmer night time lows. Highs should also be a degree or two warmer given the warmer start and persistent conditions. A deep trough moving through the Ohio Valley will send our first decent cold front of the season southward into our area beginning late Tuesday night.
530 AM EDT Tue Sep 5 2017 A cold front has brought showers and storms to the region this morning. The morning update featured further, but primarily cosmetic adjustments to POPs and weather as showers and storms will continue with the encroachment of a cold front/associated upper trough. As that upper trough amplifies over the Midwest/Great Lakes today, eastward frontal penetration power will be compromised by southwest/semi-parallel flow aloft.
506 AM EDT Tue Sep 5 2017 Water vapor loop and RAP analysis shows a broad mid-upper level trough deepening over the Upper Great Lakes this morning. This trough is expected to remain entrenched over the Upper Great Lakes into midweek resulting in periods of scattered showers and cooler than normal temps. With all the clouds and showers and flow off Lk Superior temps will struggle to reach the lower 50s inland west to the low to mid 50s elsewhere closer to Lk Superior.
North-south band of light rain roughly along I- 65 is producing only trace amounts, and convection along the effective boundary ahead of the cold front is quite isolated. Strong cold front dropping SE into the Ohio Valley overnight.
219 AM EDT Tue Sep 5 2017 A cold front will move into the northwest part of the state tonight, then progress very slowly to the east during the day Tuesday. A deepening upper level trough will march east across the commonwealth Wednesday leading to cooler than normal temperatures and scattered showers. The upper flow gradually backs from the west to the southwest on Wednesday helping to slow the cold front to a crawl with an area of anafrontal rain blossoming and moving NE across the southeast part of the region Tuesday night. Cold front moves into the area later Tuesday and slows down as a longwave trough drops over the Great Lakes and becomes stationary.
231 AM CDT Tue Sep 5 2017 Today should be the last warm day for a little while as a cold front is set to move through the ArkLaMiss region today through Wednesday. As the upper trough continues to dig south into our area, this will help push the cold front south through the rest of the afternoon into the evening and night hours tonight. Drier air should start pushing into the northern parts of the region overnight with temperatures dropping into the lower 60s for locations along and north of the Highway 82 corridor. /28/ For the beginning of the period a strong fall like amplified trough will be located over the Lower Mississippi Valley. The associated cold front will be south of the region as the last of rains exit the region during Wednesday morning.
244 AM EDT Tue Sep 5 2017 High pressure will remain off the coast today while a cold front approaches from the northwest.
Currently the area is seeing a range mainly in the lower to mid 80s. Models trending less and less for some precip to develop on the back side of the front with the approach of the ridge. H5 ridge remains off to the west and amplifies thru the day. Cooler airmass will entrench into the region for a nice cool down from the past several days. Looking for overnight lows in the lower to mid 50s. Lows should reach the lower 40s for most areas with a few upper 30s across our Nebraska counties.
403 AM CDT Tue Sep 5 2017 (Today and Tonight) A cold front will move south across West Central Texas this morning through early this evening. Temperatures will have a chance to warm ahead of the front across the southern half the area, with afternoon highs in the lower to mid 90s. The combination of some boundary layer moisture(surface dewpoints in the lower 60s) and weak instability will a bring isolated to widely scattered showers and a few thunderstorms to much of the area this afternoon and evening. It will be cooler tonight due to weak low level cold air advection and a drier airmass.
Currently the area is seeing a range mainly in the lower to mid 80s. Models trending less and less for some precip to develop on the back side of the front with the approach of the ridge. H5 ridge remains off to the west and amplifies thru the day. Cooler airmass will entrench into the region for a nice cool down from the past several days. Looking for overnight lows in the lower to mid 50s. An upper trough is located over New England and the Great Lakes region at the start of the period, along with ridging across the western CONUS.
With the high center north of the area and the ridge axis oriented from the Desert Southwest through the Pacific Northwest, today is similar to yesterday.
258 AM MDT Tue Sep 5 2017 Currently, the ridge off to our west has continued to dominate our area. Expecting a slightly cooler and dryer trend for the area due to an airmass being brought in today from the north.
Canadian high pressure slided across eastern Montana today and then through the northern plains on Wednesday. Cool temperatures and light winds anticipated today under the high, and good radiational cooling will again drop temperatures into the 40s or perhaps a little lower tonight. Winds turn around to the southeast on Wednesday with the high across the plains. Temperatures head back to near or slightly above normal with upper ridge over the Rockies translating eastward slightly.
Near record high temperatures to continue through today with cooler temperatures latter in the week.
224 AM MDT Tue Sep 5 2017 08z surface analysis had a lovely sprawling ridge from southern MB/SK into NE. Water vapour had large upper ridge over the western third of the CONUS and trough over the east resulting in northerly flow aloft over the CWA. Patchy frost put into the forecast for late tonight/early Wednesday for the higher elevations of the Black Hills into southwest SD.
Highs will be much cooler today with upper 60s to mid 70s over northeast Colorado. The cold front clear out most of the smoke, that was over the area yesterday. Most locations are expected to drop into the lower to mid 40s over northeast Colorado. Strong late summer blocking upper ridge pattern over the western CONUS shows little signs of breaking down during the latter half of the week.
High pressure remains anchored over the Pacific Northwest, with warm conditions expected. Smoke across the area could result in an inability for temperatures to reach their full potential today, though conditions will still be well above normal, 10-15 degrees warmer than normal at many locations.
With ample insolation and deep mixing to above 800mb, have trended temps at or just above the warmer guidance. However, mdls show the upper trof digging into the area late tonight, which shud bring along patches of clouds. In the end, have gone aob the cooler guidance for tonight, but this still may not be cold enuf in some areas.
332 AM CDT Tue Sep 5 2017 Last warm day today ahead of a much advertised cold front which as of 08z was located across northern Oklahoma into Northern Arkansas. The big story with this weather system will continue be the strong cold air advection present in the wake of the boundary on Wednesday and especially Wed Night as sfc ridging should allow winds to fall which will help to maximize radiational cooling. These low temperatures are some 10 to 15 degrees below normal for early September with daytime highs mostly in the lower 80s through the end of the week.
225 AM CDT Tue Sep 5 2017 The long-awaited cold front is on the doorstep early this morning, south of I-40 at the time of writing. The front should be south of the forecast area by 9 AM, and with high pressure building in behind the front northeast winds will become breezy. Surface ridging will shift east of the area during the day Wednesday with return flow setting up during the afternoon and temperatures at or a bit above those expected for today.
130 AM CDT Tue Sep 5 2017 Cold front has brought surface wind shift to northeast at all terminals. /Issued 314 PM CDT Mon Sep 4 2017/ Another fairly warm day across the Panhandles with much cooler weather on the horizon. A pre-frontal trough is already on our northern border which has switched winds out of the north across southwestern Kansas. We've also seen a denser cloud of smoke moving south behind the trough. As the cold front pushes south of the area Tuesday daytime will bring much cooler temperatures to the area.
330 AM CDT Tue Sep 5 2017 A strong cold front near the Ohio river will push se across KY/TN this morning, with breezy nw winds ushering in drier and cooler air into central and southeast IL today. A strong 541 dm 500 mb low over James Bay Canada has a strong upper level trof digging southward into the upper MS river valley and western Great Lakes today. Highs in the low to mid 70s, with Lawrenceville the warm spot near 77F. NW winds gusting 20-30 mph will make it feel cooler. A deep upper level trof over the Great Lakes and into the OH/TN river valley on Wed will continue the fall like weather over central IL. Upper level trof starts to pull slowly away from IL on Thu as it moves into the eastern Great Lakes region by sunset Thu.
The upper level trough will further settle into the Great Lakes on Tuesday. The models generally agree that the eastern half to two thirds of the CWA will see the highest potential for showers on Tuesday, especially in the afternoon. The extended begins with cyclonic flow across the region due to a trough digging into the central Great Lakes and Ohio River Valley.
307 AM EDT Tue Sep 5 2017 A cold front has brought showers and storms to the region this morning. The morning update featured further, but primarily cosmetic adjustments to POPs and weather as showers and storms will continue with the encroachment of a cold front/associated upper trough. As that upper trough amplifies over the Midwest/Great Lakes today, eastward frontal penetration power will be compromised by southwest/semi-parallel flow aloft.
557 AM CDT Tue Sep 5 2017 A strong cold front near the Ohio river will push se across KY/TN this morning, with breezy nw winds ushering in drier and cooler air into central and southeast IL today. A strong 541 dm 500 mb low over James Bay Canada has a strong upper level trof digging southward into the upper MS river valley and western Great Lakes today. Highs in the low to mid 70s, with Lawrenceville the warm spot near 77F. NW winds gusting 20-30 mph will make it feel cooler. A deep upper level trof over the Great Lakes and into the OH/TN river valley on Wed will continue the fall like weather over central IL. Upper level trof starts to pull slowly away from IL on Thu as it moves into the eastern Great Lakes region by sunset Thu.
558 AM EDT Fri Apr 21 2017 Low pressure will move slowly east into New England today. The approaching low and a cool onshore flow will provide rain to the region through tonight with some wet snow and sleet possible across the higher terrain near the international border.
A cold front is present just north of Memphis, stretching from western Arkansas up towards the Great Lakes. The surface front will begin to retreat northward as a warm front this afternoon as low level southerly flow increases ahead of an approaching cold front from the west associated with an upper level closed low entering the Mid-Mississippi River Valley.
1104 PM MDT Thu Apr 20 2017 Current surface analysis shows an area of low pressure over the Great Lakes region with high pressure centered over eastern Wyoming and the western Dakotas. Upper level analysis has a ridge over the northern plains with a trough extending down the west side of the Rockies. Some light snow could mix in with any showers early Friday, especially over the higher elevations in the hills. A few showers will likely stick around into Saturday morning across northeast Wyoming and possibly the Black Hills before high pressure builds in and pushes the lingering energy out of the area. An upper ridge will set-up across the western CONUS for the weekend, allowing warmer and drier conditions to return.
It will also be noticeably cooler with some locations not even getting above 50 degrees.
Otherwise, showers will continue across the terrain throughout the day as an upper level trough leads to a cool and unstable atmosphere. Precipitation is expected be more focused along the Divide today, particularly in the Glacier Park area as a weak backdoor cold front enhances precipitation through the afternoon hours. High pressure ridging builds in tonight and remains on Saturday for dry and stable conditions. Saturday will start off chilly with valley temperatures in the upper 20s to around freezing but quickly warm well into the 60s for the afternoon leading to a pleasant day overall.
Synoptic Setup: Short term begins with a series of ridge trough couplets strung out over the northern CONUS and southern Canada. The first couplet starts with a ridge over the Dakotas exiting and a trough over western Montana moving in today. The next couplet has its ridge running from northern California to central British Columbia with the trough just off shore. By the evening hours the trough aloft will create a pulling function on the modified arctic air to north driving it south with an increase in winds across the northern zones. Saturday through Saturday night: Ridge will move into western Montana shallowing out cold air across the region. With minimal mechanical mixing aloft to do the job, cold air will likely stay in place overnight even as the next sub-synoptic ridge passes over.
The low clouds have pushed northward over the last hour or two out of Lubbock county. For the moment the trend around KLBB appears to be continued clearing so have pulled the low ceiling out. A break in the low stratus may occur at KLBB for the next few hours before filling back in. Early on Friday evening, a strong cold front will move through bringing strong northerly winds at all TAF sites. An upper level trough will pull out of the Rockies and across the central high plains midday Friday, with upper heights expected to fall our area during the night. But looming to the north will be a rather notable cold front expected to move into our northern zones late in the afternoon, and central areas probably by early evening.
and Saturday Light precipitation will continue to exit east as a mid level PV anomaly associated with a mid level trof moves through the western Great Lakes. This will clear out the clouds from west to east today as high pressure builds in across the western Great Lakes region this afternoon. Dry weather is expected to continue into Saturday as return flow and abundant sunshine allow highs to soar into the low 60s away from Lake Michigan during the afternoon hours.
Aloft we still have a sharp mid level trough drifting across the area at midday. There is some clearing across the west early this morning, but the cold air aloft and the trough should conspire to fill that back in with normal diurnal trends. Subsidence and drying in the wake of the trough, coupled with loss of heating will allow things to clear out tonight. Northeast winds by Lake Michigan will keep it cooler there vs west of Madison today.
Strong cold front is expected to push south through the area late afternoon into this evening and bring colder temperatures tonight. Lipe Saturday morning will see northwesterly flow aloft with a disturbance across the central plains that will morph into a dragging trough Saturday night.
Short wave trough axis will be over northeast Oklahoma tonight, which will drive the boundary south and bring an end to the rain by early Saturday morning.
548 AM EDT Fri Apr 21 2017 Shower chances will continue early this morning as a cold front completes its passage. Otherwise, dry weather is expected today under weak high pressure. Rain chances return mainly south of I 70 with weekend low pressure. Isolated to scattered showers should continue early this morning with a crossing cold front. The front is expected to exit the region by mid morning with dry weather expected the remainder of the day under weak surface ridging. A northern stream upper trough is progged for approach and passage tonight and Saturday as a deepening upper low tracks from the srn Plains to the Upper MS/lwr OH valley region.
A weak upper trough will be in place across the western Gulf through the period. High pressure at the surface will ridge across the area through the period as an inverted trough over the southeast Gulf lifts deep moisture and a chance for rain across the area Saturday afternoon.
With high pressure moving through far northeast ND over the next few hours, near calm winds will only aid fog development and duration. Expect low temperatures this morning near to just above the freezing mark. This boundary will make for a tight temperature gradient Saturday afternoon from cool and cloudy with highs in the 40s in the north to significantly warmer and highs perhaps into the 60s in the south.