Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
That area is still on track to reach the lower 70s, while mid-upper 60s are expected elsewhere. 07z/2am surface analysis shows 996mb low over North Dakota, with warm front extending southeastward across Iowa/Missouri. With pressure gradient tightening in advance of a cold front dropping through the Plains, winds will reach 10 to 20mph with gusts to around 30mph this afternoon. Plains cold front will push eastward through the area tonight, reaching the Indiana border by 12z Fri. As an upper trough currently evident on water vapor imagery over southern Saskatchewan approaches from the northwest, increasing synoptic lift will lead to a band of post-frontal precipitation on Friday.
The main cold front ran from southeast Minnesota, to near KALO, to near KTVK, and then to KMCI. After sunset, much colder temperatures arrive behind the cold front. The cold front will finish sweeping through the area during the evening hours. Brisk northwest winds and cloudy skies will limit low to the lower to mid 30s.
A strong area of low pressure crossing the region today through Friday will bring howling winds with gusts as high as 60 mph. As of 8Z, the surface cold front is pushing across the CWA with winds quickly increasing. This area will likely see the highest winds for the longest period of time.
Temperatures will continue to drop throughout the rest of today with lows tonight in the lower 20s. Dry conditions are expected Friday night through the majority of the weekend as a trough continues to move east of the region and northwest upper level flow continues over the CWA.
MSAS anaysis shows a double barrel low pressure system this afternoon, with a 999 mb low just west of DLH and an occluded front extending to a 1000 mb low in eastern IA. Precipitation has been slow to develop today, as the upper level trough/low is still well to the west, over eastern North Dakota and northwest MN, and a deep dry layer is still in place over the forecast area.
This blocking pattern is forcing all upstream moisture and energy to surge northward into inland Alaska before riding over the apex of the block and descending down the downstream portion of the ridge. Peak inland temperatures are forecast in the low to mid 90s, with 70s along the coast, and 80s for areas in between. 384-hour GFS shows a series of primarily weak but generally wet low pressure troughs descending into the region from the Gulf of Alaska.
Very dry air in both the lower and mid/upper levels will move into the region Friday with skies becoming clear. Wildfire conditions could become critical, and a Fire Weather Watch has been posted where the lowest humidity is expected across southwest and western Nebraska. A northerly meridional flow pattern will be present over the western CONUS with an upper level ridge over the West Coast to British Columbia and a broad upper level trough across the Upper Midwest-Upper Great Lakes to the Southern Plains. In general, the upper level ridge will weaken and brake down over the next 48 hours.
Ahead of this front, a pre- frontal trough leads the cold air by about 100 miles. The cold front will move across west Texas and southeastern New Mexico late this afternoon through the evening hours, with gusty northerly to northeasterly winds in its wake. High pressure will build across the southern High Plains tomorrow, and winds will decrease during the day under mostly sunny skies.
251 PM CDT Thu Oct 26 2017 19z surface analysis shows the cold front from near Blackwell to Enid to Clinton to Quanah, moving southeastward. Cold advection will continue overnight and a small section of northwest Oklahoma could see freezing or sub-freezing temperatures by morning. Pressure gradient and boundary layer mixing leads to some uncertainty on temperatures during the early morning, so confidence that all/most locations within the current Freeze Warning (Woods, Woodward, Harper and Ellis counties) will fall to or below freezing is not particularly high. Much cooler temperatures are expected tomorrow. This will cause temperatures to fall to sub-freezing lows that will be colder than we have seen across the area since last March.
A sharp upper trough to our west will swing through Wisconsin and close off into a low by Friday. There will also be plenty of DCVA as as the trough moves through, so long story short, we'll have plenty of support aloft for precip and the question comes down to the low levels.
403 PM EDT Thu Oct 26 2017 Friday will be dry, with warmer temperatures. Removed PoPs across the north as drier air in the lower levels continues to drive eastward across my CWA. Flattening ridge axis crosses overnight. Skies will be mainly clear early on, before some high clouds start to top over the ridge and move in overnight.
Warm and dry weather will persist across northwest California this week as high pressure dominates the weather pattern. High pressure over the western United States will prolong warm and dry weather across northwest California thruogh the weekend.
Temperatures are right at freezing. A tight pressure gradient from the departing low pressure system, combined with modest cold advection, will keep winds gusting in the 45 to 55 knot range through the evening hours. All areas receiving enough snow today to wet road surfaces will see road conditions begin to become icy as road surface temperatures fall to near freezing. Overnight lows will fall into the 20s by morning, with clearing skies Friday allowing daytime highs to climb into the 30s as high pressure sets in.
Cold air advection in association with a large longwave trough will continue through tonight leading many areas to reach hard freeze criterion. Surface winds should gradually die down through the day as an area of high pressure starts to move in from the north.
High pressure to the north will drift eastward overnight. Lows falling into the low-mid 50s inland and upper 50s to near 60 east coast. The high pressure along the east coast will begin to be displaced eastward by low pressure deepening into the Gulf region.
At early afternoon, the strong surface cold front was roughly just southeast of the Kansas turnpike and will continue to move across southeast Kansas thru early this evening. Unseasonably cold air will become firmly entrenched across the area Friday in the brisk northerly low level flow as the upper level trof axis rotates across eastern Kansas to the south of the closed low over the Upper Midwest.
Latest surface map shows low pressure over southeast Iowa, and this is progged to move to near Rockford by late evening. The trailing cold front will sweep through the CWA by about 3-4 am, but the initial passage will be dry. Friday morning, as the deep upper low settles southeast into western Wisconsin, a 100 knot jet streak in the broader Plains trough will ramp up rain chances over the southeast parts of the forecast area. Dry slot wrapping around the surface and upper low will push the remaining rain out of the eastern CWA by mid evening, before temperatures get cold enough for any flakes of snow.
205 PM EDT Thu Oct 26 2017 Friday will be dry, with warmer temperatures. Flattening ridge axis crosses overnight. Skies will be mainly clear early on, before some high clouds start to top over the ridge and move in overnight.
Significantly warmer temperatures can be expected overnight with warming low level southerlies reestablished. Deep low pressure currently over Minnesota will maintain a southeast trek overnight. Feature will advance a strong cold front across the forecast area through the day reaching the lakes area of interior southeast Texas toward late morning and exiting lower Acadiana by early evening. A strong cold front will advance across the near coastal waters Friday afternoon and evening. Dry high pressure will then become reestablished for the weekend with northerly winds gradually diminishing.
Accompanying trough will be moving into the lower Ohio Valley by late Friday night. A surface cold front over the upper Mississippi Valley will move quickly to the south and east and into the Commonwealth Friday.
Upper level pattern will have slight ridging over our area today as the first system centered over Pennsylvania moves northeast and the next system continues digging from southern Canada. The ridging will keep the skies generally clear and warm us up to above normal levels. Things start to change tonight as the system currently over southern Canada deepens and develops an upper level low over western Wisconsin by 12z Friday. At the surface, a strong cold front will already be more than halfway through our CWA by that time.
Then a cold front currently over the northern Plains will move east across the CWA late this afternoon and early this evening.
352 PM CDT Thu Oct 26 2017 A strong cold front will sweep across the area this evening and overnight bringing an end to the mild weather we have seen the past couple days. The freeze watch remains in effect for Friday night, with nearly all locations likely to see temperatures fall to freezing or below.
A large upper level trough over the MT/ND/Canada area will surge south today and bring a good shot of cold air to the Panhandles.
Today has been impressively windy as a strong cold front and associated strong pressure gradient surged through the region this morning. The wind and deep mixing along with cloud cover will help modify overnight temperatures a bit but still expect much of the area to be near or below freezing, and will maintain the freeze warning as it exists although temperatures in a few locations may be closer to the 32-34 range.
A ridge of high pressure will continue to bring dry weather, light winds and above normal temperatures to the central California interior for the next several days. We'll remain stuck in this pattern for another couple of days as a fairly strong upper level ridge of high pressure remains anchored along the West coast.
317 PM EDT Thu Oct 26 2017 High pressure will build over the southeastern part of the country with fair weather and moderating temperatures expected through the end of the workweek.
A weak thermal trough along the Curry County coast is expected to weaken this afternoon.
The cold front at 07Z extended from eastern North Dakota into extreme southwest South Dakota and central Wyoming with a leading trough from eastern South Dakota into central Nebraska and northwest Kansas. The front will surge rapidly southeast through the early morning and overtake the trough across eastern Nebraska by 12Z. Tonight, despite the windy conditions and cloud cover, temperatures are expected to reach at or below freezing across all of the area.
The ridge of high pressure will continue through the weekend with mild daytime temperatures for inland areas. The thermal trough continues at the coast but with light pressure gradient.
250 PM CDT Thu Oct 26 2017 The awaited cold front is moving southward through the forecast area at the time of writing, although the cold advection lags the front by a fair distance. However, a mid/upper level short wave trough is moving quickly southward across Wyoming, Utah, and Colorado and will move over eastern New Mexico and the western Panhandle later tonight. This trough should be accompanied by a decent mid level cloud deck and the potential for some sprinkles or flurries.
102 PM EDT Thu Oct 26 2017 Cool high pressure crossing the region will move offshore.
High pressure centered over the area is currently providing beautiful sunny skies and calm, variable winds with high temperatures reaching into the low-mid 70s. Through the overnight, the high pressure advances northeast resulting in a shift to on-shore flow beginning first across northeast Florida Friday morning and then southeast Georgia by Friday afternoon. By the end of the period, an upper-level trough axis will be stretched from the Great Lakes through the Central Plains. A cold front associated with an area of low pressure will move into the Southeast, ending the stretch of sunny/less humid conditions across the area.
The low temperature of 39 degrees at TLH is the coldest reading since April 8th. For today's weather, high pressure remains centered just SW of the region and as such expect mainly light winds today under clear skies. With cold advection coming to an end and heights rising in the wake of the departing trough, highs should manage to return to the low to mid 70s, which is still a few degrees below normal for this time of year.
650 PM EDT Thu Oct 26 2017 High pressure will remain over the Carolinas through Friday night.
113 PM MDT Thu Oct 26 2017 The latest analysis shows a long-wave ridge over the eastern Pacific and a long-wave trough over the central/eastern CONUS. Snow showers and some light freezing rain were occurring in the vicinity of the northern Black Hills and adjacent plains owing to the steep low-level lapse rates, marginal moisture, and cloud-top temperatures near the ice nucleation threshold. On Friday some weak low-level warm advection and upper-level ridging will lead to dry weather and slight warming, but temperatures still will be 5-10 degrees below average.
Dry airmass remains in place across the region as the area of high pressure that brought record temps to the area has shifted slightly westward. Even with slightly lower heights across the area, we're still looking at above normal temperatures this afternoon with several sites reporting lower 90s across the lower deserts (including KTUS which eclipsed the 90 degree mark yet again).
Any of those words could describe the expected weather these next few days as high pressure maintains light northerly flow over the Northern Rockies.
/issued 1042 AM EDT Thu Oct 26 2017/ Dry high pressure is settling into the state with mostly clear skies and NE winds expected. Highs are on track to get into the lower to mid 70s this afternoon. Winds become light and more easterly overnight as the high pressure center shifts a bit east. High pressure in place across the waters will keep a NE flow in place through the day. The high pressure center will gradually shift east to over the Atlantic and then NE along the eastern sea board through the next few days, which will turn winds over the coastal waters to the east and SE.
The biggest aviation concern for this TAF package will be the passage of a strong cold front that will bring gusty northwest winds to area TAF sites late this afternoon into Tonight. /Issued 1013 AM CDT Thu Oct 26 2017/ Current forecast for Today is on track with strong warming expected to take place across eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas ahead of the potent cold front that will move into northeast Oklahoma late this afternoon.
These clouds are associated with a large and potent trough that will dive south through the central plains and eventually affect much of the eastern CONUS over the next several days. Along with the high clouds and winds, a frontal boundary will work southward through the central Rockies during the afternoon. High temperatures will run around 3 to 5 degrees below seasonal averages as the forecast area sits on the western fringes of a broad longwave trough over the central plains. Expect a few high clouds drifting down from the south later in the afternoon as a very weak vorticity lobe spills over a potent ridge over the west coast. The period starts off with a large longwave trough established over the eastern U. and a strong ridge stubbornly sitting over the U.
and Friday Primary issue today into Friday centers on precipitation trends as a strong low pressure system tracks across the state. Warm air advection precipitation ahead of the low pressure system will primarily be across northern wisconsin tonight into Friday morning while a dry slot works into east central Wisconsin.
Upslope flow along the southern I-25 corridor and southern Sangres could result in 1 to 3 inches at the lower elevations and 3 to 6 inches at the higher elevations. Low temps tonight should mostly be in teh lower 20s at the lower elevations, but there could be some upper teens as well, especially over northern El Paso county. Dry weather is in store for Fri, along with cooler than average temps.
311 PM CDT Thu Oct 26 2017 A cold front, currently moving through the forecast area, is going to bring in the much cooler temperatures, many have been talking about the last few days. As previously mentioned, much cooler temps will be moving in tonight, with lows tonight forecast to be in the low to mid 30s.
Quite a chilly morning across the Mid State with lows getting well down into the low to mid 30s for many locations. High pressure over the southeast US will move east as the next cold front moves towards the area.
1121 AM MDT Thu Oct 26 2017 Have updated the forecast to remove the high wind warning for Campbell County in northeastern Wyoming. Have also bumped up snowfall just a bit for the higher Black Hills as some shallow upslope should continue through mid-afternoon. Some wind-shielded locations across the higher Black Hills could even drop into the single digits Friday morning. Strong upper ridging over the western CONUS will keep the weather generally quiet across the area through the weekend.
100 PM CDT Thu Oct 26 2017 Expect VFR conditions to hold until the actual cold front begins to push through during the overnight hours. SHV, LFK, ELD, and MLU could see MVFR ceilings starting somewhere near daybreak and lasting for the remainder of the period, until the cold front pushes well east of the region. North to northwest winds will be strong and gusting behind the cold front with some gusts greater than 30 knots. highs around 80 to the lower 80s, with no update needed.
133 PM EDT Thu Oct 26 2017 High pressure will prevail into late week.
AEX could see some MVFR ceilings as the cold front approaches. With the ridge axis shifting east over the area winds are starting to become onshore this morning with temperatures rising around 10 degrees over the past few hours at some coastal locations. Aloft a trough is over the east half of the country. Aloft a short wave will drop out of Canada and into the Central Plains along the back side of the upper trough. Friday, moisture will continue to increase as the Canadian cold front approaches.
Clouds will begin to invade the Mid-South shortly after midnight as a cold front approaches from the west. Showers will become widespread Friday morning as the cold front pushes in from the west.
320 PM EDT Thu Oct 26 2017 High pressure will prevail into Friday.
The near- surface air behind the cold front is cold but quite dry. The short wave trough and associated vertical motion is still moving quickly south across our area and any precipitation that develops should exit north to south, from Larimer/Boulder Counties around 5 PM, metro Denver 6 PM, Palmer Divide 7/8 PM, and Summit/Park County by 10 PM. Will be a cold night area-wide with lows in the low 20s across the urban heat islands, teens elsewhere. A strong trough over the northern Plains means Colorado is in NNW flow aloft. Weak troughs embedded in the northwest flow will bring reinforcing shots of cool air along with chances for light precipitation.
The change will come courtesy of a cold front that will move through the area. This morning a upper level trough has begun digging across the northern Plains and will continue to do so through the day today. It is this feature that will force the cold front through the forecast area today. Breezy southwest conditions ahead of the front will help temperatures rise into the mid 70s across the south however, strong CAA behind the front will limit highs across northern Missouri to the low to mid 60s. Strong CAA will continue on the day Friday as the upper level trough digs into the region providing mostly cloudy skies. Friday night the deep upper level trough will move through the area providing our first chance for freeze conditions CWA-wide.
The area does lie south of an approaching cold front which is currently draped across the northern Plains. Looking for first widespread hard freeze with temps dropping into the lower and mid 20s. the area will only reach into the lower and mid 40s for highs. the region will see normal numbers for temps with surface ridging off to our ESE and H5 ridging over the Rockies providing downslope mid level flow. with lows in the lower to mid 30s. Dry conditions are expected Friday night through the majority of the weekend as a trough continues to move east of the region and northwest upper level flow continues over the CWA.
Friday will end up some 5 to 10 degrees cooler than today with the highly amplified pattern in place leading to a deep northerly flow pattern. Some high and mid level cloudiness will continue to crest the upper ridge in the west and drop down over our region leaving skies partly to mostly cloudy at times.
The cold front currently extends from a McAllen to Raymondville to Port Mansfield line. The front will likely stall somewhere over the lower Texas coastal waters overnight. A cold front currently extending from Falcon Lake to east of BKS line will continue to move south through this evening. In the wake of the cold front, low ceilings between 700 to 1200 feet are expected overnight into most of Thursday with some light rain/drizzle.
Aloft, an amplified pattern remains in place, with an unseasonably strong ridge across the western Atlantic, and troughing across the West. Expect showers to gradually shift southeast with time through this morning, as a surface wave makes it way northeast along the boundary, along with a passing short wave trough traversing the Ohio Valley aloft, helping to lend some upper level support.
1031 PM MST Wed Feb 21 2018 An upper level trof will move into UT and AZ tonight, and ahead of this system snow will increase along the Continental Divide. Temps on Thu will still be below average, with mostly in the 30s over El Paso county and in the 40s over the rest of the plains, and the high valleys should see mainly 30s for highs.
Observations to our south in Kansas has indicated a wintry mix of freezing drizzle/freezing rain and snow. Areas north of the precipitation band this morning may see a lull/break from precipitation for a time or a period light freezing drizzle or flurries. Amounts are complicated given the wintry mix, as more snow vs freezing precip would lead to higher snow amounts, and more freezing precip than snow would lead to lesser snow and higher potential for icing. The wintry weather ends west to east during the evening as the mid level trough departs.
Unsettled weather of light precipitation events to continue into this weekend with southwest flow of temperatures mostly just above freezing. Most places to see light snow mixing with light freezing rain south of I-80 until late morning with snow amounts less than a half inch to an inch at most and ice mostly of a a glaze on most surfaces. For continuity will keep current advisory this morning with termination now at noon as temperatures with any remaining light precipitation to be above freezing in the south. Have issued new winter weather advisories for tonight for freezing rain or freezing drizzle. As the atmosphere cools, freezing drizzle and/or freezing rain will develop in the highway 20 corridor from the Mississippi river on west.
Clear and cold to begin the day as weak high pressure remains over the forecast area.
/issued 222 PM CST Wed Feb 21 2018/ The disturbance that brought the freezing rain to the Permian Basin this morning had moved east into central Texas. Low level moisture trapped in the lower layers in the inversion could generate some patchy freezing drizzle, patchy freezing fog tonight and Thursday morning but ice accumulations are not expected with little forcing.
Patchy freezing fog or light drizzle will remain possible overnight across E OK. This could provide some additional accumulating freezing rain, especially to parts of Pawnee, Osage, and Washington counties. Inbetween the two areas of measurable precipitation, drizzle or freezing drizzle potential will exist through much of the night and into tomorrow morning as well. As a result, parts of southeast and east central Oklahoma and western Arkansas that saw freezing rain/sleet earlier this afternoon will be unlikely to see any further freezing precipitation.