Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
As the morning continue Hi-Res model output shows this low level confluence zone shifting slowly southward with time but until it does another 1 to 3 inches of heavy rain could fall across the Tampa Bay area through late morning. With seas still running around 7 feet will maintain high surf and high rip current risk along area beaches through the afternoon as well as the high surf and large breaking wave action will support dangerous conditions along area beaches.
Meanwhile, an upper trough continues to progress eastward across the eastern U. As this trough moves eastward today. The drier airmass will create large diurnal swings in temps with highs in the low 90s temps to warm rapidly, into the upper 80s/low 90s today with overnight lows in the mid 60s across inland areas to low 70s along the coast.
A large area of hot high pressure has formed over the western half of the CONUS with a ridge stretching into British COlumbia and Alberta. Northeast Montana begins setting on the eastern side of this ridge under northwestern flow aloft. Farther west a large trough resides over the Gulf of Alaska. northeast Montana lies on the stable side of the ridge with a warming trend and dry conditions continuing. A vort max disturbance is expected to ride this boundary around the ridge and could easily generate a a few isolated to scatte4red showers and thunderstorms overnight that would likely die out Wednesday morning. ridge axis will migrate over the central montana mo0untains allowing some showers to for over them during the afternoon and evening hours.
659 AM CDT TUE JUN 7 2016 08z/3am surface analysis shows cold front settling south of the Ohio River, while 1017mb high builds into the Northern Plains. Northwesterly winds around the high will bring a cooler/drier airmass into central Illinois today. High temperatures will be considerably cooler than yesterday, only reaching the middle 70s. Big pattern change is still slated for the end of the week, as persistent upper trough over eastern Canada lifts northeastward and is replaced by a pronounced upper ridge.
1037 AM EDT TUE JUN 7 2016 Multiple disturbances, rotating around a large area of low pressure centered in eastern Canada, will keep our weather cool and unsettled through the midweek period. This activity was forming in advance of another trough which existed from the surface through middle troposphere. With this trough cold air advection will increase through the day as it works eastward across NY and PA from 850 mb and above. Sharp upper trough and very cold air aloft, to the point of 1000-500mb thickness reaching around 540 decameters, will pass directly over our region Wednesday. Wednesday night will continue to be breezy with considerable cloud cover over central NY and some scattered showers due to the lingering upper trough and moisture enhancement from the lake.
1230 PM EDT TUE JUN 7 2016 A cold front will move south of the area this morning.
1021 AM EDT TUE JUN 7 2016 A cold front will move through today. Center of high pressure crosses Wednesday night.
/Today/ Very quiet and unseasonably cool weather is in store today as a high pressure ridge slides across the area. North Northwest winds will be more modest than yesterday and temperatures will only rise into the low to mid 70s, despite sunny skies, with dewpoints ranging in the 40s.
Lows Wednesday morning several degrees above normal, courtesy of convective cloud debris and S/SE flow, in the lower 60s.
High pressure will build in from the west this afternoon and persist through late in the week. The dry air will essentially cap the atmosphere per area forecast soundings, despite highs warming into the lower 90s. There are signs that some mid- level clouds could work into western areas later this afternoon out ahead of an approaching cold front, but their impacts will be negligible. Tonight: A weak cold front will push offshore after midnight. Lows will range from the mid 60s well inland to the lower 70s at the beaches.
1234 PM EDT TUE JUN 7 2016 Cooler weather will moderate, and rain chances return as the weekend approaches. Storms that form are likely to contain hail given the aforementioned parameters, and wind gusts to about 25 mph can be expected as the low level lapse rates steepen under the cooling aloft. Sub average near-term temperature can be expected under the broad trough, with readings forecast using consensus-short guidance. The upper trough axis is then forecast to shift quickly eastward as Wednesday progresses, so the previously forecast dry and clearing trend was maintained for the afternoon.
The trough will drop slowly southward today. This area of precipitation ahead/along the trough will also be key focus for potential nuisance flooding across ECFL. Swrly flow ahead of this trough and WSW-WNW flow behind it.
Upper air maps this morning shows axis of deep layer trof digging southeast across the Appalachians. forecasters have extended the high surf advisory into the remainder of the day. Water vapor imagery shows a large area of darkening (dry slot) surging southeast across Virginia through east Texas at the base of the long wave trof. Meanwhile, an upper trough continues to progress eastward across the eastern U. As this trough moves eastward today. The drier airmass will create large diurnal swings in temps with highs in the low 90s temps to warm rapidly, into the upper 80s/low 90s today with overnight lows in the mid 60s across inland areas to low 70s along the coast.
Water vapor imagery however indicating sharply drier air incoming from the north, as flow aloft trends northerly between exiting trof and eastward expanding south-conus ridge.
Upper level ridging will slowly build across the region through the short term portion of the forecast. This ridge will bring much above normal temperatures with each day progressively warmer.
943 AM EDT TUE JUN 7 2016 A cold front will move through today. Center of high pressure crosses Wednesday night.
Temperatures will be well above normal reaching the mid 90s in the lower valleys. Storms could be better organized this evening across Harney and Baker County as increased 0-6 km shear over spreads East-Central Oregon ahead of an upper level trough. This afternoon, scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop over the higher terrain of southeast Oregon and southwest Idaho. An upper low, which has enhanced convective activity the past couple of days, will make it's way to the ID/WY border by this afternoon. Without the dynamic support of the exiting low, conditions remain too stable to support shower or thunderstorm development in the lower Snake Plain. With less cloud cover will see high temperatures several degrees warmer than today, possibly breaking some records for the date.
Dry high pressure will then build in from the northwest and linger through the remainder of the week. As of 1045 AM EDT, the pressure gradient is slowly increasing between high pressure building in from the west and the departing T. High pressure will continue to build in tonight with mostly clear skies and low temps a few degrees below normal. As of 255 AM Tuesday: on Wednesday, the region will remain under dry NW flow as the H5 trough axis swings over the Atlantic coast. At the sfc, high pressure will build across the southern Appalachians from the Mid West.
High pressure has resulted in clear skies throughout the Mid- South tonight. Temperatures today will be 1-2 degrees cooler than yesterday as the weak front pulls slightly cooler air into the region. A light jacket may even be utilized in locations near the Tennessee River where temperatures may fall to the low to mid 50s Tuesday and Wednesday night. A steep, stagnant upper level ridge will become centered over the Central U.
1005 AM EDT TUE JUN 7 2016 Early visible satellite photographs show skies are partly to mostly cloudy with temperatures in the lower to mid 80s in the lovely Florida Keys. Surface wise, a low pressure system (1001 mb) is located just offshore of the North Carolina and South Carolina coast, with an associated trough draped across north Florida into the south central Gulf of Mexico. Given a deep layered ridge just to our east and a trough covering most of the Gulf of Mexico, our area will lie within a low level confluent zone. With low pressure deepening offshore of the Southeast United States and occasional bands of showers and thunderstorms traversing north northeastward through our area, south to southwest winds will pulse considerably between 15 and 25 knots.
So yay for summer! These isolated rain chances will be continuing on into Wed/Thur as models are indicating a possible return of the upper low (from the lower TX coast) toward SE TX. *if we reach 90F today at IAH, that would tie the 4th latest date to reach 90F since 1919 and 1965 High pressure over TX with light offshore flow will continue today.
especially in the higher elevations and around Rome. A dry cold front approaching from the northwest will move into the state during the afternoon. An upper level trough sweeping through the eastern states will reinforce a drier northwest flow ahead of the front allowing for clearing skies today. 16 Long range models continue to agree on a dry forecast at least through the weekend as high pressure builds over the region and dominates.
High pressure over the mid and lower Missouri Valley this morning will begin to shift east tonight and continue to move east toward the Tennessee Valley on Wednesday.
At the surface, high pressure is firmly in control with calm conditions and mostly clear skies. Some cirrus will spill across the upper ridge out west into our region, but this should affect the rapid temperature climb expected today with highs expected to top out in the lower 90s area wide. Another weak cold front is expected slip southward late this afternoon through the evening with more or less a reinforcement of the relatively drier air we have in place. This drier air mass will provide for slightly cooler mornings with lows mainly in the 60s, but that dry air will also heat up rapidly with highs inching closer to the mid 90s by mid to late week as mostly sunny skies prevail with the upper ridge anchored out to our west.
622 AM CDT TUE JUN 7 2016 High pressure was building into the region from the Northern Plains. to the lower/middle 50s elsewhere. High pressure will slide across the region today, providing mostly sunny skies. Otherwise, plan on cooler than normal highs in the 60s. High pressure directly overhead tonight with nearly calm winds and mostly clear skies expected. This will lead to respectable amount of radiational cooling which will lead to chilly overnight lows in the lower 40s across central WI and middle/upper 40s elsewhere. High pressure will begin sliding off to the east on Wednesday for onset of warm air advection. Under mostly sunny skies, look for highs in the upper 60s northeast of I-94, and in the lower/middle 70s elsewhere.
1102 AM CDT TUE JUN 7 2016 Aloft: A Wrn ridge/Ern trof configuration was in place with NW flow over the Plains. An upr low over NV/UT/ID was cutting thru the ridge with a trof extending S into AZ. This low will lose its definition today with the remaining trof moving into WY/CO/NM tonight. The front will dislodge from the Rockies and move back into the fcst area as a warm front. Temps will be 5-10F cooler than yesterday in most places.
Meanwhile the hills above 2000 feet will remain warm and dry with high pressure aloft. By Wednesday an upper low will approach with increasing onshore winds that will last through the end of the week and allow inland temperatures to cool to a few degrees below normal.
925 AM EDT TUE JUN 7 2016 Cooler weather will moderate, and rain chances return by weeks end. Sub average temperature can be expected under the broad trough, with readings forecast using tweaked consensus-short guidance. The upper trough axis is forecast to shift quickly eastward as Wednesday progresses, so the previously forecast dry and clearing trend was maintained for the afternoon.
(Issued 238 AM CDT TUE JUN 7 2016) A more pronounced dry cold front extends from near Dayton, Ohio southwest into northwestern Kentucky and southern Missouri at this time. A few showers and storms keep developing just south of the front along a weak pre-frontal trough axis extending from the front into southwestern Kentucky. Mesoscale models weaken this pre-frontal trough axis towards daybreak as the front pushes southeast into Southern Middle Tennessee. Highs in the lower to mid 80s look pretty good. Based on upstream dewpoints near and just behind the front low temperatures in the lower to mid 50s is reasonable.
Upper ridge over the desert southwest will edge closer to the area today. Models are pretty clear in limiting the amount of convection that will develop under the ridge on the high terrain of New Mexico, rather shifting the focus northward toward southern Colorado. Upper ridge over the Rockies will push eastward by mid week and will hinder most rain chances into the weekend.
Issued by National Weather Service Jackson KY 1010 AM EDT TUE JUN 7 2016 High pressure will move from the northern plains this morning to the midwest tonight in the wake of a departing cold front.
Colin continues to rapidly move northeast at 30-35 mph with a wake low level trough extending southwest into NE FL.
Another cold front is expected to move through to the coast by the afternoon with winds picking up behind the front. /issued 359 AM CDT THU SEP 29 2016/ WV satellite imagery this morning shows the cut off upper level low currently centered over the Ohio River Valley and drifting southward. At the surface, a cold front extends from the low across the Southeast through the LA/AR border to the Red River in TX and OK. The cold front is forecast to move through the area and clear the coastal waters late tonight. High pressure behind the front will result in some of the coolest temperatures in several months for the weekend.
933 AM PDT THU SEP 29 2016 It will be a bit cooler today but still warm.
The next few days the region will be sandwiched between a low pressure system over Ohio and a west coast trough. With the region under upper level ridging, we should see dry conditions with slightly above normal temperatures. Breezy southerly winds will continue on Friday, along with warmer temperatures.
621 AM CDT THU SEP 29 2016 The upper low currently over the Ohio Valley will remain stationary for at least the next 24 hours, with this blocky pattern leading to the upper ridge building across the plains. Northerly flow on the north side of the low will lead to cold advection continuing over the area today, with mostly clear skies with afternoon temps struggling to make it into the upper 60s to lower 70s.
/issued 350 AM CDT THU SEP 29 2016/ An upper level high pressure ridge will maintain across the southern high plains today and tonight. Plenteous high clouds just west of the upper ridge axis will continue to spill over at times and may lead to opaque periods especially across western counties. Today and tonight will be cooler, courtesy of a weak cold front that was now edging slowly into the southwestern south plains.
1152 AM CDT Thu Sep 29 2016 Upper low to the east has had a substantial effect on western Nebraska's weather for the past several days and will continue to do so today and tonight. The low centered over Kentucky will continue to draw cooler air aloft into western Nebraska today with 850mb temperatures at 14c yesterday to 11c today.
623 AM CDT THU SEP 29 2016 High pressure will keep clear skies over the area today and tonight.
Expect one more day of an upper ridge providing fairly mild and dry conditions to southwest Washington and northwest Oregon today.
Main upper jet over the continent was from the Pacific Northwest into eastern Canada per water vapor imagery with blocking regime over much of the CONUS with upper ridge over the High Plains between the lows off the coast of British Columbia and over the Ohio Valley.
932 AM EDT Thu Sep 29 2016 High pressure ridge will remain across the region through the end of the week.
VCTS may affect all TAF sites, with the highest coverage from KFLL northward. /issued 411 AM EDT Thu Sep 29 2016/ Synopsis: High pressure will gradually nose westward into South Florida over the weekend, but warm, humid conditions will prevail with daily chances for thunderstorms.
720 AM EDT Thu Sep 29 2016 A cold front will advance through the forecast area today and stall along or just off the coast tonight. High pressure will then build into the region thereafter. Isolated showers and tstms associated with a pre-frontal trough have been dissipating over interior SC early this morning. Although a massive upper low will be shifting into central Tennessee today, there will be little in the way of upper forcing for precipitation. A moderate sea breeze may pop a few showers or tstms later this afternoon, then as the cold front pushes into the area this evening, some showers and storms are possible mainly over the eastern half of the area.
812 AM EDT Thu Sep 29 2016 Upper level low pressure will bring rain to our region for the rest of the week. Deep, mature, stacked low pressure continues to spin over the Mid Ohio Valley with surface occluded front objectively analyzed as curving across Central WV. These areas will be closely monitored for severe given the magnitude of deep layer shear on the eastern flank of the low.
The 29/0600Z GFS indicated the highest moisture levels this afternoon to reside in the northern portions of the CWA. VCTS may affect all TAF sites, with the highest coverage from KFLL northward. /issued 411 AM EDT Thu Sep 29 2016/ Synopsis: High pressure will gradually nose westward into South Florida over the weekend, but warm, humid conditions will prevail with daily chances for thunderstorms.
A weak reinforcing surge of high pressure will continue to settle into the region this afternoon with dwpts dropping into the 50s area wide.
Weather radar rainfall estimated the highest amounts from Breckenridge to East of the Grapevine. The highest rainfall amount was four tenths of an inch from Lamont. An initial cold front will be dry and sweep south across central ca friday night.
953 AM EDT THU SEP 29 2016 Marine Low pressure will continue to spin near and over Lower Michigan through the week and into the weekend.
A high pressure ridge south of the waters will keep southwest to west winds in place today.
An upper level trough will bring showery and cooler weather Friday night through the weekend. An upper level low moving south off the coast will turn upper flow more southerly tonight and Friday. The most noticeable change Friday may be the lowering snow level, which by afternoon will be 6000-7000 feet, down from its current level of 10000 feet or so.
Will see a slight increase in northerly winds for eastern sites this afternoon as reinforcing high pressure settles in. Weak cold front has sagged into North Texas early this morning. Dewpoint temperatures will gradually decrease through the evening leaving a relatively cool night ahead with lows in the lower 60s for a majority of the area.
The dry cold front that passed through the forecast area late yesterday and overnight, has brought a reinforcement of cool dry air to the region. Under sunny skies and a cool northerly breeze, highs this afternoon will range from the mid 70s to the lower 80s. Current GOES water vapor satellite imagery and upper air analysis depict an upper level closed low spinning just south of the Great Lakes. Closer to the ArkLaMiss, an associated reinforcing cold front is making its way through our region.
Cold front has pushed into northern Alabama and eastern Tennessee at this time and will continue move away from our area however stacked closed upper level cyclone will sink southward from current position over central Indiana next couple of days keeping clouds and shower chances on going with temps more typical of Autumn.
1225 PM EDT Thu Sep 29 2016 High pressure ridge will remain across the region through the end of the week.
It still appears that the closed upper low sinking south through central IN will be the main influence over the short term. While scattered showers will be possible again today over our n/e counties, esp in portions of sw IN, the highest pops will come on Friday as the low retrogrades back toward the forecast area.
TFJ Upper ridge currently over Eastern Montana will move into Dakotas today. This will turn flow aloft to the southwest for the remainder of the week as upper trough in the Eastern Pacific digs towards the west coast.
1259 PM EDT THU SEP 29 2016 A cold front will slowly push through the area this afternoon then stall near the coast. Drier and cooler air will filter into the region through the weekend. An upper level low over the Ohio Valley and associated cold front will bring dry weather to much of the forecast area today. The cold front will continue to move through the forecast area this afternoon pushing east of the area by Friday morning. Closed upper level low over the Ohio valley will shift to the northeast during the period. Air mass drying out during the period with dew points falling into the lower 50s.
1215 PM EDT Thu Sep 29 2016 Upper level low pressure will bring rain to our region for the rest of the week. Deep, mature, stacked low pressure continues to spin over the Mid Ohio Valley with surface occluded front objectively analyzed as curving across Central WV. These areas will be closely monitored for severe given the magnitude of deep layer shear on the eastern flank of the low.
Trough over the eastern CONUS was providing a deep westerly wind flow. Temps aloft continued cooler than normal with 500mb readings at minus 8 Celsius.
and this is expected to continue as the upper low continues to drift south southeast. Chattanooga Airport, TN 74 51 73 55 / 10 10 10 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 72 49 70 52 / 20 20 20 10 Oak Ridge, TN 71 50 71 52 / 20 20 20 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 71 51 70 48 / 50 40 20 10.
The dry cold front that moved through northern Alabama last night currently extends from South Carolina southwest into the Florida panhandle. It was a bit warmer start this morning with lows in the upper 40s to lower 50s. Otherwise, a nice day with highs in the lower 70s. Increasing cloud cover should occur later this afternoon as cloud cover associated with a larger upper level low sinks south.
Temps have remained in the lower 60s closer to Lake Michigan, primarily from the warm marine environment bleeding inland and moderating adjacent land. Further inland where less cloud cover was, temps have fallen into the low/mid 50s. With the lake waters still relatively warm, and cooler air flowing over the lake, it is possible that enough lake induced instability could develop some thunderstorms and move inland across Northeast Illinois and Northwest Indiana today. With the signal of increased cloud cover arriving earlier today, from the moist axis, have trended temps cooler or back into the 60s.
651 AM CDT THU SEP 29 2016 07z/2am water vapor imagery shows center of unseasonably deep upper low over southern Indiana, with primary mid-level moisture plume wrapping around the system from the Carolinas N/NW into southern Michigan. As this slug of moisture continues to pivot around the low, it is expected to spill into east-central Illinois today. Showery conditions will continue tonight as another vorticity max rotates around the parent upper low. As has been advertised by the last few model runs, the upper low is expected to drop southward into Kentucky today, then begin lifting back northward on Friday.
726 AM EDT THU SEP 29 2016 Aviation Low pressure will continue to spin near and over Lower Michigan through the week and into the weekend.
The forecast area was sandwiched between a high pressure ridge over the High Plains and a trough of low pressure off the West Coast.
1155 AM CDT Thu Sep 29 2016 Pesky closed low situated over southern Indiana early this morning with a ridge of high pressure folding into our region from the Plains. Ridge of high pressure holds strong across the region today for mostly sunny and pleasant conditions. Clouds spread into the area from southeast to the northwest after midnight tonight as that pesky closed low swings a trough/lobe of pv- advection toward the area.