Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
High pressure is centered over Iowa this evening, keeping Middle Tennessee under the effects of a dry Arctic air mass.
446 AM EST Tue Jan 2 2018 Bitterly cold and very dangerous wind chills can be expected this morning as arctic high pressure remains entrenched over the Midwest.
1113 PM CST Mon Jan 1 2018 Quiet forecast over the next several days as the upper trough and surface ridging gradually loosen their icy grip on the forecast area. Slightly warmer temperatures are expected Tuesday as weak southerly flow and gradually increasing temperatures aloft help highs stretch to the upper teens to low 20s, and these cold-but- not-as-awful temperatures will continue through the rest of the work week, then warmer conditions are possible this weekend as the upper pattern shifts to the east and thermal ridging builds in from the west. VFR conditions to dominate through the fcst period with high pressure in firm control of the local weather pattern.
As we go through the day the ridge will push eastward, which will bring some return flow southerly winds. Mid level trough should dive through the area later today, which may increase cloudiness through the day, but not enough moisture appears to be present for this trough to produce much in the way of precipitation, if any.
Sub zero wind chills are ongoing with the lowest values of -8 in both Clarksville and Crossville.
With this shallow, Arctic air and the low solar insolation in early January, do not expect any quick moderation in this airmass. The increasing clouds and warming 850mb temperatures should keep minimum temperatures "warmer" across the entire area.
Temperatures struggled to reach the lower to middle 20s across the region today with some locations across southern Tennessee not even reaching 20 degrees. Given the prolonged sub freezing conditions it is certainly advised to keep faucets dripping or cabinets open to avoid frozen/burst pipes. Still not expected to get above freezing. The clouds will also help keep the lows from bottoming out and they will fall to the teens Tue night.
309 AM CST Tue Jan 2 2018 High pressure was centered over northwest Missouri at 08Z with ridge axis still located along the IA/NE border. Will continue wind chill advisory into the morning as temperatures remain quite cold and winds should increase after sunrise as the high moves further south. Winds will become southwest and increase into the afternoon bringing some moderation to the bitter cold of the past couple of days before the next cold front arrives late this afternoon and this evening.
Tuesday will be warmer with a southwest and west wind, however, most areas will remain below freezing.
Early morning clouds will give way to clearing skies later today as subsidence develops behind an upper level trough that will be crossing western Kansas during the afternoon. Tonight will not be as cool as the past several nights despite a weak cold front/surface boundary trying to work its way into western Kansas.
Low pressure passing by to the north of the area Tuesday night will drag a cold front through southern Wisconsin after midnight.
1029 PM MST Mon Jan 1 2018 Upper trof across SE MT/NW WY will continue to drop southeastward across eastern CO tonight. In spite of this, low temperatures tonight may actually be a tad warmer than last night as increasing mid/high cloudiness along with some winds which pick up after midnight may help hold temperatures up a few degrees. There will also be a brief shot of some snow showers across the central mountains tonight but overall any accumulations will remain spotty and light with amounts generally under 2 inches for the higher peaks north of Cottonwood Pass.
1015 PM EDT Tue Aug 1 2017 Weak high pressure remains in place through Wednesday night with a weak low pressure trough developing on Wednesday.
Water vapor loop indicated an upper level trough over northwest MT and another upper trough over central ALTA.
645 PM PDT Tue Aug 1 2017 August will begin with much warmer than average temperatures.
959 PM EDT Tue Aug 1 2017 High pressure will gradually slide offshore through the middle of the week.
Little change today from past two days with slightly warmer temperatures and more humid with some very isolated showers and storms in far SE sections. Temperatures ranging mostly in the lower 80s at 2 PM CDT.
/issued 757 PM CDT Tue Aug 1 2017/ A broad upper-level trough continues to affect the eastern CONUS. GFS 500-700mb layer moisture prog depicts this moisture dropping south to nearer to the Gulf coast on Wednesday, near the base of a bread midlevel height trof.
1039 PM EDT Tue Aug 1 2017 High pressure will keep the weather mainly fair through midweek, though slowly increasing humidity will bring isolated to scattered thunderstorms each afternoon.
1153 PM EDT Tue Aug 1 2017 High pressure will keep the weather mainly fair through midweek, though slowly increasing humidity will bring isolated to scattered thunderstorms each afternoon.
903 PM EDT Tue Aug 1 2017 High pressure will keep the weather mainly fair through midweek, though slowly increasing humidity will bring isolated to scattered thunderstorms each afternoon.
1233 AM EDT Wed Aug 2 2017 Humidity will return late in the week as a cold front approaches from the northwest.
The clouds present will help keep overnight lows warmer than they have been the past few nights. The models indicate the next lobe of vorticity within the trough will shift from OK/AR southeast into central MS and AL. Convergence along an approaching (and weakening) cold front will produce showers and thunderstorms across the lower OH and mid MS valley as well.
Strong high pressure aloft centered over the western Great Basin will remain the dominant feature for Utah through the balance of the week. High pressure is centered to the west of Utah this evening, allowing for a net drying trend over the area. Moisture is expected to increase across the far south tomorrow as the low-level flow turns more southerly.
Ridge of high pressure will continue to grip the region.
800 PM EDT Tue Aug 1 2017 High pressure over the local area will move slowly east through Wednesday.
957 PM EDT Tue Aug 1 2017 Dry high pressure will prevail tonight while Tropical Depression Emily passes well offshore.
Our VAD wind profiler is showing good moisture flow in the lower levels feeding this subtle overrunning with W/NW flow aloft.
522 PM PDT Tue Aug 1 2017 Upper level ridge will build in over the region through the week with above normal temperatures expected.
951 PM EDT Tue Aug 1 2017 High pressure will push east of the region tonight.
1223 AM EDT Wed Aug 2 2017 Weak high pressure remains in place through Wednesday night with a weak low pressure trough developing on Wednesday.
1046 PM MDT Tue Aug 1 2017 A nearly stationary large high pressure ridge aloft will remain over the Western U.
For now have brought the low clouds into MAF/FST but it could extend east to INK/HOB as well. Wednesday will be a few degrees warmer as cloud clear a bit. Thunderstorm chances look to remain across the southern areas where a surface boundary may reside invof mid level theta-e ridge.
The deterministic runs predict and the GFS ensemble mean predicts an upper trough axis to enter the region from the N during the period with the N-S axis over or just east of the CWA Wednesday, then more confidently just offshore Wednesday Night. Although the CWA may be located under the subsident side of the trough axis by Wednesday night, the bulk of the associated 700-300mb Q-vector divergence predicted to remain N and NW of the CWA/MSA during the period. Thus, the combination of the upper trough and copious moisture may result in an increasing chance for convection over the CWA/MSA during the period.
757 PM CDT Tue Aug 1 2017 A broad upper-level trough continues to affect the eastern CONUS. GFS 500-700mb layer moisture prog depicts this moisture dropping south to nearer to the Gulf coast on Wednesday, near the base of a bread midlevel height trof.
1021 PM EDT Tue Aug 1 2017 Humidity will return late in the week as a cold front approaches from the northwest.
626 PM CDT Tue Aug 1 2017 Very good agreement and consistency with the models with a significant short wave trough dropping into the region from the northwest tonight into Wednesday. A leading weaker short wave trough from the west tonight and Wednesday along with waa will bring the first shot of showers and storms after midnight out west. With the clouds, rainfall, and northeast winds it will also be cooler mainly in the 70s for highs on Wednesday.
with an upper level trough still over that area and multiple intersecting outflow boundaries from afternoon/evening convection, should still be a decent chance of thunderstorms developing back into the I-70 and southward area late this evening. The precip will diminish during the evening hours with precip in the east lasting the longest since the upper level trough is slowly pushing east. The trough will still be around tomorrow and with the upper level pattern still showing cyclonic flow a little bit of precip is still possible tomorrow.
/Issued 326 PM CDT Tue Aug 1 2017/ Current upper level analysis shows high pressure spinning over the Great Basin region with weak low pressure near the OH Valley. Dry subsiding air is moving into the Panhandle region in the wake of the upper low, as seen on the latest water vapor imagery. along the intersection of the invading dry air aloft, and where some low level convergence is noted along a weak lee trough. Shallow low level moisture and light winds should result in at least some patchy fog early Wednesday morning before warming well into the high 80s.
Very good agreement and consistency with the models with a significant short wave trough dropping into the region from the northwest tonight into Wednesday. A leading weaker short wave trough from the west tonight and Wednesday along with waa will bring the first shot of showers and storms after midnight out west. With the clouds, rainfall, and northeast winds it will also be cooler mainly in the 70s for highs on Wednesday.
The cool trend continues as northerly flow aloft continues to usher cooler air southward into the plains.
712 PM EDT Tue Aug 1 2017 Dry high pressure will prevail tonight while Tropical Depression Emily passes well offshore.
1248 AM EDT Wed Aug 2 2017 Dry and partly cloudy conditions this morning will give way to scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon as a weak trough moves in. Highs today will once again reach the low to mid 80s.
With weak vort maxes moving through the base of the upper trough, some isolated showers may continue in northern sections overnight.
Much cooler temps are expected for Wednesday. Cold front moves through the region overnight with a second area of precipitation trailing the front and moving through during the day Wednesday.
Upper troughing is in place across the mid state this afternoon. Upper troughing will continue and possibly even deepen across wrn portions approaching 03/06Z.
Late Wednesday, high pressure will move away from the region allowing southerly flow to return and begin pushing moisture back into the region.
Upper troughing is in place across the mid state this afternoon. Upper troughing will continue and possibly even deepen across wrn portions approaching 02/24Z.
722 PM EDT Tue Aug 1 2017 Humidity will return late in the week as a cold front approaches from the northwest.
1231 AM EDT Wed Aug 2 2017 Humidity will return late in the week as a cold front approaches from the northwest.
624 PM CDT Tue Aug 1 2017 H5 Ridging across the western CONUS continues this morning and has shifted slightly west over the past 24 hours. High pressure extended from northern Nevada west to off the coast of California. A ridge extended north into the Alaska panhandle and the Yukon this morning. Downstream of this ridge, a closed low was present over far northern Canada with a trough of low pressure extending south to Hudson Bay. convection will linger across northern Nebraska Wednesday morning, then redevelop Wednesday afternoon as a cold front approaches northern Nebraska. Further south and west, thunderstorm chances do not look nearly as probable, but given the strength of the cold front, felt at least a slight chance mention in the southwest was warranted here.
641 PM CDT Tue Aug 1 2017 A broad and slow-moving upper level trough will provide periods of precipitation across North and Central Texas for about the next 24 hours. A weak cold front is expected to move in from the north early Wednesday morning, providing a source of lift for showers and isolated thunderstorms. The highest risk for heavy rain will be for areas generally east of Interstate 35 and south of Interstate 20.
Upper troughing is in place across the mid state this afternoon.
1051 PM CDT Tue Aug 1 2017 Given the strength of the upper level wave and QPF signals in the 18-00 UTC global guidance, backed up by CAMs through the 01 UTC HRRR/RAP, trended towards the higher edge of QPF guidance for Wednesday.
As such, the center of a deep warm core west to east oriented anticyclone is over Northern Old Mexico, with the associated attendant eastern ridge reaching across the Gulf to South Florida but just west of the Keys. Still seems that weaker ridging will make a return across South Florida from the northeast during the day on Wednesday.
The old frontal boundary across central Florida will lift northward, with a broad area of low pressure moving into the northeast Gulf along the boundary by early morning.
902 PM EDT Tue Aug 1 2017 High pressure will push east of the region tonight.
Wednesday will be warmer with highs in the mid to upper 70s most locations.
The upper level low that brought widespread rainfall to the Central Coast continues to make its way out of the region. Mining Ridge along Big Sur saw 10.
Warmer/breezy conditions expected during the day Wednesday in advance of upper trough that becomes highly amplified as system moves through the desert southwest.
1023 PM EST Tue Jan 9 2018 A warm front may bring light precipitation Wednesday morning.
702 PM EST Tue Jan 9 2018 A warm front may bring light precipitation Wednesday morning.
1043 PM EST Tue Jan 9 2018 High pressure will cross the region overnight and move east of the area Wednesday.
808 PM EST Tue Jan 9 2018 Latest IR satellite continues to show the center of a low pressure system spinning in the eastern Gulf with a moisture plume out ahead of it moving from southwest to northeast. /issued 443 PM EST Tue Jan 9 2018/ Latest water vapor loop depicts a closed low spinning counter clockwise in the easter Gulf of Mexico with a plume of moisture thrust northeastward, ahead of the feature. By Wednesday morning, models push the aforementioned low pressure system southeastward, towards the Florida Keys. Out ahead of the low, winds will remain light and easterly, continuing to advect low level moisture into South Florida. Maximum temperatures on Wednesday are forecast in the upper 70s, a few degrees warmer than seasonal norms.
Early afternoon temperatures ranged from the middle to upper 40s, where the clouds were hanging toughest, with the lower and middle 50s where thin spots were observed.
The low pressure system will track east across the desert southwest tonight through early Wednesday.
746 PM EST Tue Jan 9 2018 High pressure will cross the region overnight and move east of the area Wednesday.
The low pressure system in southeast CO is deepening which is keeping southerly winds rather gusty at some locations, with recent gusts over 25 mph at TUL. The low clouds scattered out across northwest Arkansas, and far northeast Oklahoma. Latest water vapor/satellite imagery are sampling the upper level low pressure system across southern CA this evening.
/Issued 336 PM CST Tue Jan 9 2018/ A strong upper low will track east across the Four Corners region and the southern Rockies Wednesday.
553 PM CST Tue Jan 9 2018 High pressure ridge sliding to the east today, and mostly zonal flow aloft with warmer temperatures advecting into the region continues the influence of a strong temperature inversion trapping a moisture rich airmass in place. Pattern shift as the low over the desert SW deepens and the flow across the CONUS amplifies.
While just about everywhere has climbed above freezing, we still have a wide range of temperatures early this afternoon; from mid 40s where it has cleared out to just above freezing in VIH.
Areas of fog are also likely, but confidence in dense fog for land areas is too low at this time to issue a dense fog advisory, as the pressure gradient with the surface ridging will maintain an east to northeast breeze through much of the night. The chance of measurable precip looks low given all of the moisture is confined in the lowest 2000-3000 ft of the atmosphere.
An upper low will track east across northern Arizona tonight through Wednesday morning spreading moisture north into Utah.
A cold front is working its way east through the CWA, and having moved through most of southeast Oregon already, will clear southwest Idaho by 5 am MST.
610 PM CST Tue Jan 9 2018 Wound-up upper low over Los Angeles, California is expected to move eastward across the southern Rockies to near the western Texas Panhandle late Wednesday.
/issued 443 PM EST Tue Jan 9 2018/ Latest water vapor loop depicts a closed low spinning counter clockwise in the easter Gulf of Mexico with a plume of moisture thrust northeastward, ahead of the feature. By Wednesday morning, models push the aforementioned low pressure system southeastward, towards the Florida Keys. Out ahead of the low, winds will remain light and easterly, continuing to advect low level moisture into South Florida. Maximum temperatures on Wednesday are forecast in the upper 70s, a few degrees warmer than seasonal norms.
1035 PM EST Tue Jan 9 2018 Late evening surface analysis depicts weak low pressure (1014 millibars) over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico, with a stationary frontal boundary extending northeastward from this feature across the Florida Big Bend, Interstate 10 corridor, and into the adjacent Atlantic waters. Meanwhile, high pressure (1028 millibars) blankets the Mid-Atlantic States. a mid and upper level cyclone is spinning slowly eastward across the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. Mostly cloudy skies prevail elsewhere, with temperatures and dewpoints ranging from the mid 50s to the lower 60s. The presence of the coastal trough over the near shore waters and a tightening local pressure gradient may prevent sea fog from forming overnight. High pressure centered over the Mid-Atlantic states this evening will move slowly northeastward on Wednesday, pushing off the New England coast by Wednesday night.
A strong cold front will then arrive Wednesday evening/night, bringing much stronger winds and much cooler conditions.
18Z surface data has high pressure over the Ohio Valley with a developing storm system in the Rockies. Tonight, the low will likely occur between 7 and 9 PM. There may or may not be some patchy freezing drizzle north of highway 30. The first, the above freezing temps with rain the second post cold front environment with cold temperatures and chances for clippers through the period.
The local area currently resides under the subsidence region behind a large upper low moving through the eastern Gulf.
/issued 240 PM CST Tue Jan 9 2018/ The pleasantly, mild temperatures over the region today under a transient upper ridge will be switch to windy, but still mild, conditions Wednesday as a compact upper low coming ashore over SoCal this afternoon opens tonight, then ejects east, northeastward over the Texas Panhandle. It will still be windy tomorrow, but the uncertainty created by these above mentioned differences will prompt the continuation of the High Wind Watches, and Fire Weather Watches over southeastern New Mexico and West Texas for Wednesday and Wednesday night. Light rain could also occur, but it appears Southeast New Mexico will see the best chance of measurable rain due to their proximity to the ua trough.
These winds are still forecast to be strongest in the north, so the highest rain chances should be along the Volusia and north Brevard coast (40%). Guidance suggests the low clouds will persist until mid-late morning on Wed. High pressure centered well to the north will strengthen while a weak inverted trough develops tonight near the northern Bahamas.
931 PM EST Tue Jan 9 2018 High pressure will continue overnight across the outlook area.
751 PM CST Tue Jan 9 2018 The southeasterly winds over the cooler waters have advected a cool marine layer inland across the Coastal Bend a bit quicker than expected this evening. Wednesday will be warmer with highs in the mid to upper 70s most locations.
Otherwise, the lower overcast clouds and fog remain over much of AR tonight, with lows in the upper 30s north to mid and upper 40s central to south. Wednesday morning, the low clouds and fog will slowly lift and thin a bit, but still remain mostly cloudy. Wednesday morning, the low ceilings and fog will be seen with mainly IFR conditions.
High pressure will then rebuild over the region beginning Wednesday for a return to dry weather. Models have handled the trajectory of the Lows center very well satellite imagery and radar data show the center near the Channel Islands and Santa Barbara.
Wednesday morning, the low ceilings and fog will be seen with mainly IFR conditions.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 41 59 51 61 / 20 20 20 50 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 40 62 47 63 / 0 10 10 40 Oak Ridge, TN 41 60 48 62 / 0 10 10 50 Tri Cities Airport, TN 38 60 43 61 / 0 10 10 40.
Not too much to update this evening with cloud cover and light winds over the mid state, along with a warm front still draped over the area. Warm front looks to currently be cutting the area in half, dividing the mid state into a northwest half and southeast half. Higher potential for fog exists north of the warm front, and for any areas south of the front that see decreased cloud cover. Weak warm front across the Mid State will slowly shift northward this TAF period, with VFR conditions expected at BNA/MQY/CSV through late tonight before a return to MVFR.
With that said, we will remain on the moist east side of the trough and there will be a chance for measurable precipitation. As a result, high pressure to our north will try to spread southwards.
Overall trends indicate that temperatures will likely remain in the 40s over most interior areas today (perhaps around 40 to the lower 40s over the northwest), while locations near the immediate coast could remain around 50 to the lower 50s.
Hudson Bay upper low will move to the west today turn the NW flow aloft over Montana to a more WNW direction. Lake effect clouds and light snow around Fort Peck Lake will diminish somewhat today with somewhat warmer temperatures.
Offshore winds will continue to increase early this morning to SCA levels as high pressure builds and cold air advection continues through the day.
416 AM CST Wed Dec 27 2017 A combination of a weak area of low pressure moving across the coastal waters and an approaching cold front will keep rain chances in play throughout the day today, making for another raw weather day. Temperatures will generally be in the 40s across the area with lows tonight reaching the mid 30s north and the low 40s south of the tidal lakes.
Most of the temperatures remained at or above freezing but the dew points over the north half of GA were mostly below freezing. This was producing an environment for rain mixed with some sleet or freezing rain. at onset Thursday morning there could be a strip of rain mixed with freezing rain. Dew points will remain low and temperatures once again should be around freezing for a part central GA. 41 Chaotic forecast period is in store for the extended as polar lows continue to plague the Hudson Bay region and reinforce the broad eastern US trough. Remaining areas of precip across southern and eastern Georgia will likely be a mix of rain and freezing per Bufr sounding data. Accumulations during this time are unlikely given sfc temp trends hovering right around freezing.