Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
905 PM CST SAT JAN 30 2016 SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOWER 50S TO THE LOWER 60S. TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE LOW 60S TO LOW 70S.
The upper level trough over the eastern U. Hurricane Joaquin is progged to reach its westernmost point in the Central Bahamas by 00Z and then make a sharp northward turn as it comes under the influence of the approaching upper trough.
A WEAKENING UPPER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA TODAY AND TONIGHT. A PLUME OF MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL MOVE NORTH ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.
STILL A SMALL CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS OR A WEAK STORM OR TWO INTO THIS EVENING OVER THE HIGHER MTNS. OTHERWISE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EAST OVER THE CWA THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT WHILE AN UPPER LOW MOVES ONSHORE OVER CALIFORNIA INTO NEVADA BY FRIDAY MORNING. A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVER THE PLAINS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS A SFC FRONT LIES ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND A WEAK IMPULSE RIDES OVER THE RIDGE. UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO APPROACH THE CWA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH MODELS HINTING AT A BATCH OF PCPN OVER THE PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT THEN SOME DRY SLOTTING FRIDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD ACROSS THE CWA THURSDAY THEN COOLER FRIDAY ESPECIALLY OVER THE PLAINS WITH PCPN AND CLOUD COVER.
CURRENT WEATHER PATTERN SHOWS A DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH/CUT OFF LOW OVER THE REGION WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO PULL IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND PROVIDE SUFFICIENT LIFT FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS TAF PERIOD.
336 AM CDT THU OCT 1 2015 A large area of high pressure to our north has brought a rather chilly start to the new month as temperatures have dipped into the lower 40s over our northern counties as of 200 am. An upper level low situated over extreme southern IL this morning will drift southeast with additional energy forecast to move into the base of the trof later today helping to intensify the upper low. 00Z forecast models continue to deepen upper level trof over the lower TN/OH river valleys southward into a cutoff low over AL and FL panhandle Thu night into Friday. This trough will influence the track of major hurricane Joaquin with winds up to 120 mph and near the eastern Bahamas.
443 AM EDT THU OCT 1 2015 SEVERAL DISTURBANCES WILL ROTATE AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THROUGH FRIDAY.
151 AM EDT THU OCT 1 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND A MOIST ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT OUR REGION INTO THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA FROM NORTH TO SOUTH OVERNIGHT. DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TO THE GULF COAST WILL CLOSE OFF OVERNIGHT AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST. SEVERAL WEAK SHORT SHORT WAVE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST FROM THE GULF COAST REGION AHEAD OF TROUGH OVERNIGHT. SURFACE COLD FRONT EXTENDING THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA INTO THE UPSTATE OF SOUTH CAROLINA THIS EVENING. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE DIGGING SOUTHWARD THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES.
650 AM EDT THU OCT 1 2015 SEVERAL DISTURBANCES WILL ROTATE AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THROUGH FRIDAY.
INCREASING CLOUDS AND LOWERING HIGH CLOUD CEILINGS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ON TO THE WEST COAST AND FLOW ALOFT TURNS SOUTHERLY. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE REGION WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY WESTWARD TODAY BEFORE TAKING A NORTHWARD TURN ON FRIDAY, THANKS TO AN INCOMING TROUGH WHICH IS EXPECTED TO CLOSE OFF OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES.
502 AM EDT THU OCT 1 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF MAINE TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
242 AM MDT THU OCT 1 2015 A RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE ROCKIES THROUGH TONIGHT. AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST A TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE ROCKIES FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT.
WITH A WEAK MORNING COLD FRONT PASSAGE DOWN THE TEXAS COASTLINE. A DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MASS HAS DESCENDED INTO AREA. WEEKEND INTO EARLY WEEK WEATHER WILL BE INFLUENCED BY CENTRAL CONUS RIDGING PLANTED WITHIN A NATIONAL OMEGA BLOCKING PATTERN.
124 AM EDT THU OCT 1 2015 RAINFALL WILL COME TO AN END THIS EVENING AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SLOWLY SOUTH FROM CENTRAL CANADA. THIS HIGH WILL DOMINATE REGIONAL WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES.
327 AM PDT THU OCT 1 2015 LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN NEVADA TODAY WILL BRING RAIN, WITH RAIN AND SNOW FOR THE HIGHER PEAKS OF THE SIERRA.
218 AM EDT THU OCT 1 2015 PLENTY OF LINGERING MOISTURE WITH MAIN TROF AXIS STILL TO OUR WEST.
/issued 310 AM CDT THU OCT 1 2015/ A quiet weather pattern will continue through the day Friday as an upper level ridge of high pressure remains over the area. High temperatures will generally remain much above normal under the ridge. The exception will be the extreme western Low Rolling Plains Friday afternoon where surface ridging will feed cooler easterly low level flow into that area.
OVERVIEW: CUTOFF LOW FINALLY PUSHING INTO THE WEST COAST THIS MORNING WITH DOWNSTREAM RIDGING ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. BROAD TROUGHING AND COOLER CONDITIONS REMAINS ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS WITH AN ONGOING FEED OF DEEPER MOISTURE RUNNING UP THE EAST COAST. WAITING TO SEE JUST WHAT TRACK IT WILL TAKE AS DEEPENING CUTOFF TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS INTERACTS WITH THIS STORM. LARGE EXPANSE OF HIGH PRESSURE/DRY WEATHER REMAINS ACROSS THE NRN GREAT LAKES INTO THE MIDWEST. HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM AND DRY AIR WILL REMAIN THE DOMINATE PLAYER FOR THE BALANCE OF THE WORK WEEK. FROM THE LOWER 30S (AND ISOLATED UPPER 20S) TO NEAR 50 IMMEDIATELY DOWNWIND OF THE LAKES. FORECAST IS STILL ON TRACK WITH THE LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER QUEBEC FINALLY GIVING WAY TO A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES.
AS SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY WITH ONLY ISOLATED SMALL SHOWERS BEING DETECTED ON THE OUTER STRAITS BEYOND 20 NM SOUTH OF THE LOWER KEYS. TEMPERATURES ARE HOLDING IN THE LOWER 80S ALONG THE ISLAND CHAIN. WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DRAPED ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA AND THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC AND GULF WATERS.
SURFACE RIDGING MAINTAINS N TO NE WINDS OF 10 KTS OR LESS MOST AREAS. A WEAK AND POORLY DEFINED COLD FRONT IS IN THE PROCESS OF MOVING THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS TODAY AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES AND MEXICO BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. LOW TEMPS WILL DIP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S TONIGHT AND DECREASE EVEN FURTHER INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S JUST BELOW CLIMATE NORMALS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY WILL ALSO BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY.
SHORT TERM FORECAST REVOLVES AROUND TWO UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS AND THEIR INTERACTION. THE SECOND UPPER LEVEL LOW DEVELOPS OVER SW BRITISH COLUMBIA AND BOMBS OUT AS IT DROPS SOUTH ALONG THE WEST COAST. YESTERDAYS MODEL RUNS WERE TRACKING THE SYSTEM THROUGH EASTERN WASHINGTON AND OREGON WHICH SIPHONED OFF A GOOD DEAL OF ENERGY FROM THE LOW ENTERING WYOMING ON FRIDAY. WEAKENING IT AND RESULTING IN LESS PRECIPITATION AND A WARMER FORECAST. WITH THE TRACK NOW FURTHER WEST THE ENERGY OVER WYOMING RETAINS CLOSED LOW CHARACTERISTICS FOR LONGER AND ALSO RESIDES OVER NORTHERN WYOMING AND SOUTHERN MONTANA LONGER RESULTING IN MORE PRECIPITATION AND A LONGER DURATION EVENT.
320 AM CDT THU OCT 1 2015 THE NORTHLAND WILL BE IN A PERSISTENT BLOCKING PATTERN THROUGH FRIDAY AND BEYOND. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED NEAR JAMES BAY IN CANADA BOTH TODAY AND TOMORROW. THE FLOW FROM LAKE SUPERIOR WILL KEEP AREAS CLOSER TO THE LAKE COOLER THAN AREAS FARTHER INLAND. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COOLER ON FRIDAY.
A WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH JUST EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WILL SHARPEN WITH LITTLE MOVEMENT. SOME PATCHY FROST POSSIBLE IN THE LOW AREAS MAINLY OF SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN NORTHWEST OF MADISON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES.
Expect highs today ranging from the mid 80s across the northern Big Country to the lower 90s across the Concho Valley and I-10 corridor. This will keep temperatures a bit warmer tonight across the southern portion of the CWA. However, a back door cold front will provide cooler conditions and slightly drier air over the Big Country. A few showers will be possible north of the cold front after midnight.
AT 2 AM, TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE UPPER 50S INTO THE LOWER 60S. MODELS CONTINUE TO PAINT THE SAME PICTURE FOR OUR WEATHER OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, DEEPENING THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY, CLOSING OFF A CENTER AROUND BNA THIS AFTERNOON, THEN SINKING ALL THE WAY SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHWESTFLORIDA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE EAST OF UPPER TROUGH AXIS, WHICH PUTS MOST SHOWERS TODAY OVER THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE MID STATE. HOWEVER, AS UPPER LOW MOVES SOUTHWARD, AND TROUGH AXIS PIVOTS WESTWARD, DEEP MOISTURE WORKS INTO OUR REGION FROM THE EAST AND INCREASES OUR RAIN CHANCES TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.
BUT UPPER LOW OFF THE NW CALIF COAST WILL COME INLAND TODAY ALONG 40N AND SHOWERS WILL INCREASE. SHOWERS WILL INCREASE IN OUR CWA AS THE LOW MOVES IN. A FEW DEGS WARMER FRIDAY ESPECIALLY IN OREGON WHERE SUNSHINE WILL BE GREATER.
131 AM EDT THU OCT 1 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND A MOIST ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT OUR REGION INTO THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA FROM NORTH TO SOUTH OVERNIGHT. DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TO THE GULF COAST WILL CLOSE OFF OVERNIGHT AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST. SEVERAL WEAK SHORT SHORT WAVE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST FROM THE GULF COAST REGION AHEAD OF TROUGH OVERNIGHT. SURFACE COLD FRONT EXTENDING THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA INTO THE UPSTATE OF SOUTH CAROLINA THIS EVENING. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE DIGGING SOUTHWARD THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES.
THE SURFACE REFLECTION OF THE LOW LEVEL JET IN THE FORM OF A WARM FRONT EXTENDED FROM A LOW OVER CENTRAL WYOMING NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS DICKINSON TO BETWEEN WILLISTON AND MINOT. SHORT TERM MODELS INDICATE ENHANCEMENT FROM SMALL-SCALE IMPULSES ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON WITH IMPULSES WANING. TONIGHT ATTENTION TURNS TO OUR SOUTHWEST WHERE A LONGWAVE TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST THIS MORNING MOVES INTO THE ROCKIES TONIGHT AND THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES REACHES WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA LATE TONIGHT.
647 AM EDT THU OCT 1 2015 PLENTY OF LINGERING MOISTURE WITH MAIN TROF AXIS STILL TO OUR WEST. UPPER LEVEL LOW BRINGS RAIN ON FRIDAY. DRIER AIR ADVECTING IN NE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL AT LEAST ALLOW THE LOW CLOUDS TO LIFT A BIT TODAY AND BECOME MORE BKN IN NATURE. ELECTED TO GO TOWARD THE WARMER SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL PRODUCE RAIN OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY. ESPECIALLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE INTERACTION OF THE UPPER LOW AND THE TROPICAL SYSTEM. THE ECMWF HAS CONTINUED WITH A FORECAST THAT KEEPS JOAQUIN OUT TO SEA AND THE UPPER LOW REMAINS SOUTH OF US. THE GFS HAS CONTINUED ITS TREND OF INGESTING THE TROPICAL SYSTEM INTO THE UPPER LOW.
1226 AM CDT THU OCT 1 2015 The cold front moved through the Ozarks last night and Canadian air was filtering into the region with temperatures this afternoon in the 60s under the cloud cover to lower 70s where the sun was shining.
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MAKE IT'S WAY FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA TODAY. AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH SOUTH FLOW WILL ESCORT HIGHER PW AIR INTO THE REGION EAST OF THE CASCADES WHERE UP TO 1/2" OR MORE OF RAIN IS BEING FORECAST BY SEVERAL MODELS. EAST OF THE CASCADES IN THE THICKER CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES COOLER TODAY. ABOUT 5 DEGREES COOLER.
246 AM EDT THU OCT 1 2015 PLENTY OF LINGERING MOISTURE WITH MAIN TROF AXIS STILL TO OUR WEST. UPPER LEVEL LOW BRINGS RAIN ON FRIDAY. DRIER AIR ADVECTING IN NE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL AT LEAST ALLOW THE LOW CLOUDS TO LIFT A BIT TODAY AND BECOME MORE BKN IN NATURE. ELECTED TO GO TOWARD THE WARMER SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL PRODUCE RAIN OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY. ESPECIALLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE INTERACTION OF THE UPPER LOW AND THE TROPICAL SYSTEM. THE ECMWF HAS CONTINUED WITH A FORECAST THAT KEEPS JOAQUIN OUT TO SEA AND THE UPPER LOW REMAINS SOUTH OF US. THE GFS HAS CONTINUED ITS TREND OF INGESTING THE TROPICAL SYSTEM INTO THE UPPER LOW.
330 AM CDT THU OCT 1 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REMAIN IN PLACE. WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHWEST INTO KANSAS. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOWER TO UPPER 40S AS OF 2 AM. AS THE RIDGE AXIS REMAINS NORTH OF THE CWA. HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S SHOULD SHOULD BE FOUND UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. GUSTING TO THE LOWER 20S.
313 AM CDT THU OCT 1 2015 UPPER RIDGE TO MOVE EWD TODAY TO A POSITION OVER CNTL NM AND COLO BY THE END OF THE DAY AND OVER THE WRN PANHANDLE AND SOUTH PLAINS LATE TONIGHT. RESULTING INCREASE IN THICKNESSES SUGGEST 1-3 DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. MODELS BECOMING MORE AGGRESSIVE IN DEVELOPING ELEVATED CONVECTION LATE TONIGHT FROM SWRN KS THRU THE ERN PANHANDLE TO THE ROLLING PLAINS AS MID LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS JUST DOWNSTREAM FROM THE RIDGE AXIS.
REGION REMAINS WITHIN A BROAD ZONE OF SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IN ADVANCE OF A TROUGH/ELONGATED CLOSED CIRCULATION OFF OF THE US WEST COAST. THE TROUGH/CLOSED CIRCULATION WILL MOVE ASHORE ACROSS NORTHERN CA TOMORROW AS A 100KT JET ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS THEN EXPECTED ACROSS ALL OF SE IDAHO ON FRIDAY AS THE TROUGH MOVES OVERHEAD. LIMITING SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TO PEAKS AND RIDGETOPS. MODELS AND THEIR ENSEMBLE MEMBERS CONTINUE TO SHOW REASONABLE AGREEMENT IN THE TRACK AND TIMING OF A SECOND CLOSED LOW THAT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE PACNW THIS WEEKEND.
TEMPS WILL GENERALLY FALL INTO THE LOW/MID 60S BY SUNRISE THURSDAY. THE LOWERING OF THE LOW CLOUDS HAS BEEN AT A SLOWER PACE THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. /61/ SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON SOUTH OF I-85 AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
STEADY SOUTHEAST BREEZES WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE NIGHT ALLOWING FOR A MILD FIRST MORNING OF OCTOBER WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE MID 40S TO THE LOWER 50S. DRIER AIR TO THE EAST WILL BE DIFFICULT TO OVERCOME UNTIL THE UPPER TROUGH FINALLY TRANSITIONS EAST. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL IMPACT TEMPERATURES THOUGH WITH HIGHS ONLY EXPECTED TO TOP OUT IN THE LOWER 60S UNDER CLOUD COVER ON FRIDAY. THE MODELS AGREE WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHING INTO THE WESTERN CONUS AND SPREADING SOME ENERGY AND MOISTURE INTO MAINLY THE WESTERN HALF OF SD. HOW FAR EAST THIS PRECIPITATION GETS IS UNCERTAIN AS MODELS START TO DIFFERENTIATE ON THE CLOSED LOW OVER THE SW AND THE NW FLOW ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THIS SOLUTION IS MUCH MORE ROBUST WITH PRECIP THAN THE MUCH WEAKER ECWMF WHICH LEAVES A CUT-OFF LOW OVER UT/CO.
HURRICANE JOAQUIN IS JUST EAST OF THE BAHAMAS THIS MORNING AND A STALLED FRONT IS DRAPED ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH KEEPING TROUGHING IN PLACE ACROSS THE STATE. ALOFT A TROUGH IS IN PLACE TO THE WEST OF THE STATE. THE LOW ALOFT WILL DIG DOWN TO OVER THE PANHANDLE THROUGH FRIDAY. WITH HIGHS TODAY EXPECTED IN THE MID 80S COASTAL TO THE LOWER 90S INLAND. LOWERING TO THE LOWER 80S NORTH TO UPPER 80S SOUTH FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
310 AM CDT THU OCT 1 2015 A quiet weather pattern will continue through the day Friday as an upper level ridge of high pressure remains over the area. High temperatures will generally remain much above normal under the ridge. The exception will be the extreme western Low Rolling Plains Friday afternoon where surface ridging will feed cooler easterly low level flow into that area.
447 AM MDT THU OCT 1 2015 A RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE ROCKIES THROUGH TONIGHT. AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST A TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE ROCKIES FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT.
SURFACE RIDGING MAINTAINS NELY WINDS OF 10 KTS OR LESS MOST AREAS. A DRIER AND COOLER AIRMASS IS FORECAST TO PUSH FROM NORTHEAST TEXAS TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST AND INTO OUR AREA FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A NEW SURGE OF COOLER AND DRIER AIR COMES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S ACROSS THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS.
605 AM EDT THU OCT 1 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF MAINE TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
THIS PRECIPITATION WILL FALL FROM MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND GIVEN THE DRIER AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS. LOWER DEWPOINTS WILL WORK THEIR WAY IN FROM THE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. EXPECT IT TO REALLY FEEL LIKE AUTUMN THIS WEEKEND WITH DRY AND COOLER THAN NORMAL WEATHER.
WITH SOME RETREAT NORTHWARD TODAY THEN A MORE SUBSTANTIAL REINFORCEMENT OF COOLER AIR TOMORROW NIGHT. WHEREAS MODELS HAD STRUGGLED TO RESOLVE HOW FAR SOUTH AND EAST THE INITIAL UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WOULD MAKE IT.
239 AM CDT THU OCT 1 2015 CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION TODAY ALLOWING FOR WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS SOME AREAS ALONG WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY TO CLIMB INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S. ENHANCED PRESSURE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE TO ALLOW FOR WINDS TO INCREASE TO AROUND 20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS LATER TODAY.
DUE TO THE COOLER AIR ADVECTING INTO THE REGION AN INVERSION IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP AND VARY FROM AROUND 850-700MB TONIGHT. THIS WILL PREVENT THE LOWER LEVELS FROM MIXING OUT TONIGHT AND SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY SATURATED. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO DROP SOUTH OUT OF THE MIDWEST AND BECOME CUTOFF OVER THE TN VALLEY BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT SHOULD LOWER A FEW MORE DEGREES FROM CURRENT VALUES AND BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOWER 60S. STUMPF AN INVERSION HAS DEVELOPED DUE TO THE COOLER AIR ADVECTING INTO THE AREA.
CURRENT WEATHER PATTERN SHOWS A DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH/CUT OFF LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE REGION WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO PULL IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND PROVIDE SUFFICIENT LIFT FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.
132 AM EDT THU OCT 1 2015 RAINFALL WILL COME TO AN END THIS EVENING AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SLOWLY SOUTH FROM CENTRAL CANADA. THIS HIGH WILL DOMINATE REGIONAL WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES.
AT 2 AM, TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE UPPER 50S INTO THE LOWER 60S. MODELS CONTINUE TO PAINT THE SAME PICTURE FOR OUR WEATHER OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, DEEPENING THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY, CLOSING OFF A CENTER AROUND BNA THIS AFTERNOON, THEN SINKING IT ALL THE WAY SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHWEST FLORIDA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE EAST OF UPPER TROUGH AXIS, WHICH PUTS MOST SHOWERS TODAY OVER THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE MID STATE. HOWEVER, AS UPPER LOW MOVES SOUTHWARD, AND TROUGH AXIS PIVOTS WESTWARD, DEEP MOISTURE WORKS INTO OUR REGION FROM THE EAST AND INCREASES OUR RAIN CHANCES TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.
FEW-SCT 5KFT WILL BE POSSIBLE AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PIVOTS BACK WESTWARD INTO AREA BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND LOWER PRESSURE OVER THE DEEP SOUTH.
THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN SHOWS GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OPERATIONAL MODELS WITH A RIDGE AT H5 OVER THE ROCKIES INTO THE WESTERN PLAINS. BREAKING DOWN FROM THE WEST AS THE TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST HEADS EAST ACROSS CA/NV/UT AND LIFTS NORTH INTO WY AND EVENTUALLY PARTS OF NEBRASKA.
428 AM MDT THU OCT 1 2015 PREDAWN WATER VAPOR LOOP REVEALED UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS FROM THE GREAT WITH A UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS FROM THE FOUR CORNERS INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. AREAS OF FOG/PATCHY DRIZZLE DEVELOPED OVER THE HIGH PLAINS UNDER A MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TRANSLATING EAST ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE AND HIGH PLAINS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WITH A RIDGE CENTERED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CO. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE FRONT AND A STRONGER RIDGE TO THE EAST WILL YIELD RATHER GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES WY TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.
148 AM EDT THU OCT 1 2015 A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS CENTRAL ONTARIO TO CENTRAL QUEBEC BY FRIDAY EVENING. THE HIGH WILL EXTEND A RIDGE SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS SHOULD ERODE A BIT MORE OF THE CLOUD COVER BUT BELIEVE THERE WILL BE A BAND OF CLOUDS OFF OF THE WESTERN HALF OF THE LAKE THAT WILL CAUSE A SWATH OF COOLER HIGHS ON THURSDAY. MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD GO PARTLY CLOUDY BY THURSDAY NIGHT BUT THAT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW TAKES SHAPE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN US.
231 AM CDT THU OCT 1 2015 High pressure has built into the region with a cooler and drier air mass. Temperatures early this morning were in the upper 40s to mid 50s and dewpoints were in the low to mid 40s under a clear sky. Below normal temperatures are expected today despite plenty of early Autumn sunshine as high pressure to our north brings in a cooler and drier airmass. Highs today will range from the mid 60s to around 70, with lows tonight in the low to mid 40s.
347 AM MDT THU OCT 1 2015 CHANGE IS IN THE WINGS AS LOW PRESSURE OFF THE LEFT COAST WILL BE KICKED ONSHORE TODAY BY ENERGY DROPPING SOUTHWARD FROM THE HIGHER LATITUDES OF WESTERN CANADA. THE DOWNSTREAM RIDGE OVER US WILL RESPOND BY AMPLIFYING OVER THE ROCKIES THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE BEING REPLACED BY LOW PRESSURE LATE TOMORROW. HOWEVER THIS WAS MAINLY IN THE FORM OF HIGH CLOUDINESS YESTERDAY WHICH WILL BE PUSHED NORTHWARD TODAY AS THE RIDGE AMPLIFIES. BREEZY CONDITIONS IN THE HIGH COUNTRY WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES UP AS THE JET SHIFT OVERHEAD. THIS JET AS APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SUPPLIES SIGNIFICANT FORCING FOR ASCENT ON FRIDAY BUT VERY LITTLE MID TO LOW LEVEL FOCUS IS IN PLACE UNTIL THE FRONT ARRIVES TO THE NORTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON.
333 AM CDT THU OCT 1 2015 ISSUED 333 AM CDT THU OCT 1 2015 WATER VAPOR/UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS A LARGE LONGWAVE TROUGH IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS INCLUDING THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGION. HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM HUDSON BAY CANADA. TEMPERATURES AS OF 3 AM RANGED FROM THE LOWER 30S IN THE SAND COUNTRY OF CENTRAL WI. TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 40S ELSEWHERE. THINKING TEMPERATURES MAY BE A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN THIS MORNING AS MODELS SHOWING A LITTLE MORE PRESSURE GRADIENT FOR SOME WIND. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL INTO THE WEEKEND FOR COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS.
138 AM EDT FRI JUL 17 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER INTO FRIDAY MORNING, KEEPING IT DRY AND QUIET. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER UPSTATE NY WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST INTO NEW ENGLAND THE NEXT 12 HOURS. FRI AFTERNOON WITH WARM MOIST AIR COMING IN AHEAD OF A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROF AND SHORT WAVE, AND A SURFACE BOUNDARY.
437 AM EDT FRI JUL 17 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST TO NEW ENGLAND TODAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR INTO THE REGION TODAY. AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT WILL VEER THE WINDS FROM SOUTHEASTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE MORNING. EXPECT MAINLY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AS THE REGION OF LOW PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT CROSS THE EASTERN LAKES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE HIGH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S AND CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION ON SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL MAINTAIN A WARM AND MUGGY OVERNIGHT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES NOT FALLING MUCH BELOW THE MID 60S TO THE LOWER 70S.
LOW CLOUDS COULD EXPAND THROUGH THE FRONTAL TROUGH AND INCREASE CLOUDS TOWARD DAYBREAK TO THE NORTH OF I-16. A WEAK SURFACE INLAND TROF AND THE EASTWARD EDGE OF A STRONG MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THE MID/UPPER RIDGE AXIS NOW EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH, WITH A NOTABLE PAUCITY OF ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE FROM OUR DELTA SW'WARD INTO TEXAS PER LATEST WV IMAGERY AND U/A ANALYSIS.
WILL CONTINUE WITH THE LOW-END MORNING POPS FOR PARTS OF NORTHEAST OK.