Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
237 PM CST Sat Dec 24 2016 A deep upper level trough has arrived over California and will move into the Four Corners region overnight pusing a Pacific cold front through the area Sunday. Strong winds on the southern periphery of the trough will mix down into the Guadalupe Mountains where a High Wind Warning is in effect. On the one hand the timing of the trough (early morning) is not favorable for daytime heating to mix elevated winds to the surface and the surface pressure gradient will only support about 20kts.
The fog would likely stick around until the front lifts north of the region as a warm front Christmas morning.
Temperatures remain mild and above freezing ahead of the next system tonight. particularly with the cold front overnight.
Colder air will continue to sag southward mainly across the north with temperatures over the remainder of the fa in the low to mid 20s. If guidance continues to maintain warmer column and a westward shift of low track, rain/freezing rain not snow accumulations will be the main impact. Later Sunday night as the low lifts through the forecast area winds could diminish then pick up again late as the low departs.
The deep troughing over the western CONUS will push eastward over the next 24 hours and leave the region in a southwest flow regime while it takes a negative tilt turning north. While the low level wind field and moisture flux are strong, very strong capping and a lack of moisture above 850 mb, as indicated by proximity soundings on the RAP at KDRT, should prevent much in the way of any QPF generation beyond some sporadic showers and drizzle overnight.
removed much of the fog with the exception of the somewhat persistent sea fog over the cooler nearshore waters (low to mid 60s) compared with the unseasonably warm and humid air still riding overtop of them. As of 1130 AM the main streamer was exiting northeast of the Lower Valley and expect the weaker activity in northeast Tamaulipas to become overwhelmed by dry air surging north/northeast as 500 mb ridging gradually builds. mentioned this at McAllen where ceilings may be a smidge lower than in the Lower Valley; overall have ceilings between 800 and 1200 feet based on latest model soundings and expect the low MVFR to arrive as early as 8 to 10 PM.
A weak quasi-stationary front over northern Middle Tennessee, will begin to lift northward tonight as a warm front.
For Christmas Day, the warm front will really push north through the area. The latest guidance has slowed it down just a bit, which would mean temps would be on the cooler side north of I-64.
Renewed surge of NE winds pushing down the coast as High Pressure re-builds over the Mid Atlc Region and this should allow for any dense fog to disperse a bit faster than today during the mid morning hours. Otherwise expect partly to mostly cloudy skies with above normal temps continuing although a bit cooler along the coast with highs in the lower/middle 70s and highs near 80 further inland. Strong high pressure will build North of the area on Sunday, with the combination of onshore flow and weak coastal troughing leading to a few coastal showers into Sunday night.
weak forcing and a saturated low level airmass should lead to freezing drizzle potential Sunday morning.
147 PM EST Sat Dec 24 2016 High pressure will build over the region tonight and Christmas Day.
As warm front lifts north through the state overnight, we currently expect dense fog to erode from south to north, hence the segmented dense fog advisory for tonight. As Pacific Cold Front/dryline progresses eastward tomorrow afternoon over western parts of Oklahoma, we could flirt briefly with high wind warning conditions. Overall severe storm potential appears to be on the low side given very meager instability.
236 PM EST Sat Dec 24 2016 High pressure builds into the area through Christmas Day.
355 PM CST Sat Dec 24 2016 Pleasant but maybe breezy Christmas Eve continues for remainder of daylight hours as base of potent trough, currently over Baja of California, works through northern Mexico toward West Texas by early Christmas morning and into the Northern Plains by Sunday night. After sunset tonight a moderate southerly LLJ (30-40kts) develops as the upper level trough across the desert southwest deepens and pushes east. With deep boundary layer moisture and a potent trough it won't take much to lift to produce some light rain across much of the area from just before sunrise Christmas morning and mid-morning hours. The westerly breezes will relax quickly Sunday evening as the upper low races on toward the midwest.
A more pronounced cold front ran from the arrowhead of Minnesota into South Dakota. Dew points were in the 30s or higher from the Great Lakes into the lower Mississippi Valley. Light winds and moisture trapped in the lowest levels will allow patchy fog to persist through sunrise. Some drizzle may be possible as temperatures remain at or above freezing.
350 PM EST Sat Dec 24 2016 Weak high pressure will prevail tonight.
1226 PM CST Sat Dec 24 2016 Just a quick update to add Lyman county to headlines for morning freezing drizzle Sunday. Not much change in model guidance with the 12Z runs - the NAM remains in its own camp, refusing to warm the low levels above freezing - while the GFS/EC/Canadian are all above freezing during the day allowing for any ice that accumulates in the morning to melt off. All eyes are on a deep trough along with west coast with upper level ridging over the central conus.
Indiana should be under high pressure today and tonight.
We also have a high pressure axis over the state which is keeping this frontal boundary from moving to far south into the region. Models show this frontal system staying just north of the state before rotating back northward as a warm front Sunday night.
Upper troughing continues across the eastern U. Temps will be a few degrees cooler on Sunday due to more cloud cover and winds that will be more northwesterly and gusty at times.
An upper level ridge will bring another day of seasonably mild temperatures and filtered sunshine today. A weak cold front will cross the area Sunday and Sunday evening for a chance of light rain.
The good news is temperatures will warm just enough during the daylight hours on Sunday to mitigate any travel hazards, but by Sunday evening as temperatures fall back below freezing, some travel impacts could begin due to slick spots on mainly secondary roads.
With some drying taking place aloft, as is apparent on this mornings sounding, some spotty freezing drizzle may also be possible. Weak warm advection/southwest flow will support temperatures approaching freezing this afternoon. As is usually the case, the more efficient snow will be along the higher terrain and north of I-80 with enhancement from upslope/lake moisture.
A series of upper-level impulses rotating around a large area of low pressure over eastern Canada deepens a broad longwave trough and push it southeast over the eastern CONUS through the day Saturday. As this trough begins to push off into the western Atlantic Saturday night, zonal flow over the Deep South is replaced by northwest flow which will support another reinforcing blast of cool air Saturday night as a dry surface cold front passes through the local area and high pressure builds in from the west. Mid and upper level clouds and cooler-than- seasonal temps (mid to upper 50's areawide) will continue Saturday afternoon before the clouds clear some Saturday night and temperatures drop into the upper 20's to low 30's inland and mid to upper 30's near the coast.
Sunday will be significantly warmer with continued breezy conditions and abundant sunshine. It is worth noting that even with the higher mixing levels, around 650mb, Sunday's winds will not be quite as strong as today's due to slightly weaker flow aloft.
A trough of low pressure crosses the area Sunday night.
/19/ Quiet and cool conditions are expected across the forecast area today, with high pressure wedged into the region from the west.
1256 PM EST Sat Jan 28 2017 A trough of low pressure will move across the local area later today. It will be followed by a cold front late Sunday.
/Issued 316 AM CST Sat Jan 28 2017/ Upper trough axis to swing through the area today.
A fairly strong upper trough will move across Ontario Canada and the nrn Great Lakes today with its cold front moving south through srn WI later this morning.
227 PM CST Sat Jan 28 2017 Several disturbances within a NW flow pattern aloft will move across the area tonight and tomorrow, bringing periods of clouds and flurries to parts of MO/IL as well as contributing to the development of a trough over the East Coast. Low temperatures will be slightly warmer than average tonight and highs will be near average tomorrow across most of the area.
This, along with slightly warmer temperatures, will create elevated wildfire conditions.
Meanwhile, the mid-level flow will gradually increase across the area today into Sunday becoming more unidirectional down through the lower levels. Diurnal heating will result in steeper lapse rates/deeper mixing across the higher terrain of central Kansas each afternoon for rather gusty winds.
Metar plots shows that the winds have picked up to our west from a tightening pressure gradient between the high and low pressure. Otherwise, the forecast is on track with another frontal passage later today with a re-enforcing shot of cooler air.
After our first freeze since January 9th, temperatures are now climbing into the lower to middle 30s at most locations. Clouds will begin to push in during the evening hours and will prevent our lows from dropping too significantly, however with winds taking on a more northwest component, weak CAA will help them fall to near or slightly below freezing by Sunday morning. Temperatures will quickly rise above freezing prior to the onset of the precip, which will begin as liquid during the late morning hours.
A 500 mb ridge extended from off the California coast up into western Canada, while a trough curved from northeast of the Great Lakes down into the southern Plains. Low level flow will turn more westerly from later Sunday into Sunday night, bringing in some warmer air.
Quiet and cool conditions are expected across the forecast area today, with high pressure wedged into the region from the west. /19/ Prior discussion below: Continued slightly cooler than normal and dry. Early morning surface analysis had a 1031mb high centered over west Texas ridging east across the northern Gulf coast.
Otherwise, the main highlight tonight will be another band of light snow developing along and ahead of an advancing warm front.
Highs tomorrow will be warmer with the downslope flow and warmer 850-hPa temperatures.
The cold front which passed through the Keys yesterday evening has stalled across the Straits of Florida already. Dewpoint temperatures are in the lower 50s, and Key West Doppler radar is void of any precipitation echoes. Meanwhile, an area of high pressure will build southward, across the Gulf of Mexico and Florida Peninsula.
With clouds out of the picture for the most part, temperatures will likely be a little cooler than last night. Area is entering a broad trough axis across the eastern U.
/issued 330 AM CST Sat Jan 28 2017/ A resurgence of continental high pressure from the west will maintain cool and dry conditions over land areas today and Sunday.
Occasional light rain will persist as high pressure pushes into the area this morning, with overrunning southwest flow above the deck. Skies will clear at the lower levels from west to east later today, with some residual high cloudiness. will persist this morning as high pressure surges across the area. Drier air from upstream will gain the upper hand later today along with the mid level trough axis moving overhead, shifting flow aloft to a drier northwest direction.
An area of high pressure will provide a continuation of dry conditions and some additional warming through mid week.
Models are stingy with the amount of the QPF associated with the passage of the upper trough, but with significant cloud cover in the lower levels, some mid level forcing will indicate scattered snow shower activity throughout the region this evening.
Overall the higher resolution, near term models have shifted light snow associated with the next jet max slightly westerly however NAM/GFS indicate some areas of low QPF throughout the CWA. With the clearing in the northeast, temps there will be 5 to 10 deg cooler than last night with majority of the remaining area seeing temps similar to last night, up to the mid twenties in the west. Another day where a pretty decent temp gradient will exist from west to east as winds around Devils Lake turn westerly by mid-aftn and temps rise to near the freezing mark, but the cold start to the day around Baudette may limit daytime highs to the upper teens.
345 PM EST Sat Jan 28 2017 A dry cold front is expected to sweep across South Carolina and Georgia late Sunday afternoon and evening. Large high pressure sourced over the Gulf of Mexico will spread across the southeast portion of the country through mid week.
Pine Ridge and some of the higher areas of Ncntl Neb would be candidate zones for light snow.
The upper ridge will move slowly east through mid week which will keep Texas in dry northwest flow aloft.
Although moistening is occurring aloft the low levels remain quite dry so before low levels moisten sufficiently, expect a period of virga; that is, rain evaporating before reaching the ground. As the low levels moisten, evaporative cooling will occur allowing temperatures to fall into the low and mid 40s tonight.
High temperatures today will be slightly warmer than the previous day, and near normal for late January.
1123 AM EST Sat Jan 28 2017 A PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE SOUTH WILL DIRECT A DRY WESTERLY FLOW INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH SUNDAY. The pressure gradient between the ridge and low pressure well to the north will help cause breezy conditions during the late mornings and afternoons. A pressure ridge along the Gulf Coast will direct a dry westerly flow into the forecast area. A pressure ridge along the Gulf Coast will direct a dry westerly flow into the forecast area.
Deep upper trough focused across much of the conus with a few embedded vorticity maxima traversing through the mean flow.
310 PM CST Sat Jan 28 2017 The region was under meridional flow today with a broad mid-level trough stretched across the eastern U. with a large ridge over the western U. While the low clouds may linger across eastern KS through the day, expect some clearing skies across central KS Sunday afternoon.
Cold air advection from the north has led to a much cooler and drier day as compared to yesterday. Maximum temperatures have struggled to rise into the low 70s. Tonight, global models begin to deepen a long wave trough over the southeast CONUS.
12Z Denver sounding shows a very shallow stable layer and we are already mixing through that with temperatures pushing into the lower 40s along portions of the Front Range. Lower levels will be rather dry so outside of cloud cover most areas will be dry although the higher mtn peaks over zn 31 and 33 could see a few -shsn late this aftn into the early evening hours.
A few light returns are showing up on regional radars across the northern Gulf of Mexico but the low levels are fairly dry per 12Z TAE RAOB.
327 PM CST Sat Jan 28 2017 A very amplified pattern across North America today with a ridge across the western CONUS and longwave trough centered over the Great Lakes Region.
Think the cloud cover will be slower to reach into Kansas counties and have increased temperatures slightly over north central Kansas, while keeping areas in central Nebraska cooler due to cloud cover most of the day.
MORNING UPDATE: Changes to the forecast this morning were first focused on Temperatures which were warmer than anticipated due to excess overnight cloud cover. Due to this warmer start daytime highs will not need to climb as far to reach highs and therefore highers were raise a up to 5 degrees for most location across the west. Somewhat tight surface gradient today between low pressure to the east and high pressure to the west will bring breezy west to northwest winds to the forecast area today. Temperatures will be warm today as upper ridge to the west brings warmer air into the area. The ridge builds into Montana tonight and Sunday with warm and mainly dry weather.
309 PM CST Sat Jan 28 2017 Light snow chances tonight, then warmer temperatures for the beginning of the work week, are the main highlights of the forecast.
So, while colder air will be advecting into the low levels, drier air will be, too; thus, I'm not seeing any overlap of freezing temperatures/potential for sufficient trailing moisture to yield an occurrence of flurries over the far northeastern areas of our forecast area.
Temps mainly support only the higher NE elevations to have any light accumulations. Will need to watch if any short term guidance starts to trend higher however given some of the low level conditional instability esp later Sunday. Baker A broad upper level trough looks to continue over the area Sunday night with all in all limited moisture but possibly enough for light snow over the far northern counties as a rather cold airmass will be across the area.
An approaching large-scale trough and attendant forcing for ascent will induce thickening and lowering cloud decks, including increasing sheared nimbostratus and altostratus later tonight and most of Sunday. Meanwhile, an area of high pressure will build southward, across the Gulf of Mexico and Florida Peninsula.
Forecast on track with forecast area in a break between short wave troughs. Back edge of the stratus eroding nicely as the low level thermal trof passes. after which will quickly diminish from west to east with passage of the low level thermal trof. most notably across the mountains this evening as a weak s/w trof passes thru. Accumulations in the near term will primarily be confined to the high terrain aside from some skiffs here or there in the Lowlands early this morning and once again tonight. Elsewhere 30s will be the rule with some 20s in the high terrain. Temps will drop back below freezing all places tonight. An upper level trough will move over the area Sunday and Sunday night.
These cold temperatures are especially evident in snow-covered valleys along the divide where strong inversions persist and the higher mountain locations in western Colorado, including but not limited to Gunnison, Crested Butte and Silverton to name a few of the extremely cold spots.
sfc flow becomes more westerly as elongated high pressure axis extends southeastward into the region. am banking on enough weakening of the sfc winds to allow for temps to fall to the lower end of guidance /if not slightly below guidance values/. Isolated locations may briefly approach the freezing mark late in the night. Some downsloping/adiabatic processing from the NW flow should result in temps warming into the low 70s in the afternoon across inland areas /60s along the immediate coast/.
These features apparently have caused the low stratus that was clearing from the west to come to a grinding halt. These clouds were associated with a digging upper level trough into the Great Lakes region, a cyclonic flow and very cold air aloft. Will mention a chance of flurries from late morning through tonight as the low stratus will remain over the cwa. Lows should be in the lower to mid 20s.
1242 PM MST Sat Jan 28 2017 Updated forecast to reflect a drier and warmer afternoon based on satellite imagery and observations. Otherwise, mainly dry weather can be expected through the weekend with heights building aloft as ridging intensifies across the West.
Further east, forecast soundings showing some drying occurring above 850 mb but feel with the deep cyclonic flow and weak low level cold advection, the lower cloud field will hold together and possibly produce a few flurries as early morning lows drop into the low to mid 20s.
Behind this rain, clearing skies resulting in cooling in the low levels with new low cloud development spreading east/southeast into our area. However, with northwest flow developing from the surface into the mid and upper levels, this low level moisture will likely mix out by mid to late morning, resulting in mostly sunny skies developing by late morning or early afternoon. Warmer temperatures with highs mainly in the 50s will result from clearing skies and downsloping westerly winds.
High amplitude U/L pattern persists with a positively tilted L/W trough extending from the Great Lakes, across the southern plains, to Baja California. A sharp U/L ridge was located upstream of the trough over western North America. The trough will rotate east tonight and Sunday and will extend from the Great Lakes to the Gulf of Mexico. The trough will rotate east tonight and Sunday and will be located from the Great Lakes to the Gulf of Mexico. An U/L disturbance will ride through the base of the trough across the Gulf of Mexico tonight and Sunday. long wave trough will be pivoting east into the Atlantic, with a less amplified long wave trough expected to persist over the eastern U.
mid to upper level trough axis will swing eastward through the day with better lift and moisture quickly ejecting east and southeast of the forecast area.
A short wave trough moving across the lower Mississippi Valley and through the mean upper trough over the eastern conus late today was responsible for some very light rain or virga over parts of the coastal waters as well as considerable cloudiness across the area. In the wake of this system, cooler air will be reinforced across the central Gulf Coast region for the end of the weekend and beginning of the new work week. A short wave trough moving through the Great Lakes region and into New England late in the work week will push a cold front into the southeast U.
251 PM EST Sat Jan 28 2017 A cold front will approach from the northwest tonight and move through the region Sunday.
A trough of low pressure will be approaching the area Sunday morning, and showers associated with it are expected at the TAF sites around 12Z.
Webcams in the southwest show little if any drifting snow across the highways at this time. High temperatures today in the lower 30s should limit the blowing snow threat marked by 30-45 kt 0.
Northwesterly flow will continue to dominate as a deep positively tilted trough extending from eastern Canada through Texas continues to move east with an upper level ridge moving in over the West Coast. Tomorrow, the aforementioned upper level trough will move out of the area, allowing skies to slowly clear and temperatures to reach the upper 30s to mid 40s.
300 PM MST Sat Jan 28 2017 A broad area of high pressure aloft will move towards the region.
A strong upper low will remain over eastern Canada with a broad upper trough extending south into the great lakes.
With precip coverage diminishing and moving into an area of a slightly warmer thermal profile.
Given this, still think there is a possibility of freezing drizzle, especially in the Sisseton Hills region where a little topographical lift may be present. High temperatures on Sunday should again rise into the low 30s across the northeast CWA to near 40 across the southwest CWA.
A band of clouds behind the trough will swing through roughly the northeast half (maybe a little more) of the cwfa over the next few hours. This trough will veer winds to the nw today. The highly amplified upper level pattern now over the CONUS with a western ridge/eastern trough will gradually flatten out and become more zonal as the week progresses.
Relatively tranquil conditions across the area this afternoon with area at the surface sandwiched between strong low pressure over eastern Canada and an equally strong counterpart over the western states in the form of a 1050mb high. With east coast mid and upper level trough in place. this all translates to generally a dusting to a half inch max in the valleys of far North GA while could see a half inch up to a max 1 inch in the highest elevations.
207 PM MST Sat Jan 28 2017 Western CONUS ridge continues to shift east into the high plains. Warmer and dry for the area on Sunday, though it will still be breezy across the plains.