Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Breezy to gusty conditions have also been reported this morning across portions of central OR and the Basin, with strongest gusts coinciding with cold front passage earlier this morning. Late tonight, a weak upper ridge will build over the region, bringing dry conditions and locally breezy winds through tomorrow afternoon.
Unfortunately, this wont last long as a cold front will move through early tomorrow morning.
Though cloud cover will likely stick around for a good portion of the day Thursday, it will be the driest day for the next several days as a series of waves of moisture ejecting from a Pacific trough enters the Intermountain West.
A center of high pressure will continue to sink southward across the plains through the morning. In response to the high, the northwest winds will eventually weaken towards dusk. Some guidance is warmer, some is cooler.
(This evening through Thursday) High pressure will build across the forecast area in wake of the cold frontal passage today.
For today, upper low will continue to slowly move east/northeast across western South Dakota/Nebraska mid to late afternoon, sliding over the Iowa/Nebraska border by evening. This will result in the coldest night we have had so far over the area, with widespread lows in the lower to mid 20s. High pressure lingers over the region for Thursday, resulting in a mostly sunny sky, lighter winds, and daytime high temperatures ranging from the low 40s east to mid 50s southwest.
615 PM CDT Wed Oct 20 2021 (This evening through Thursday) High pressure will build across the forecast area in wake of the cold frontal passage today.
840 PM CDT Wed Oct 20 2021 A cold front extends from extreme southeast Kansas to near Okmulgee and into south-central Oklahoma this evening.
1003 PM EDT Wed Oct 20 2021 High pressure continues to usher in dry air across much of Florida with an upper-level ridge building over eastern CONUS. Temperatures will be similar to what we saw yesterday with lows dropping down into the low to mid 60s across inland locations. Locations along the coast will see slightly warmer temperatures with lows forecast in the upper 60s to mid 70s near the Treasure Coast. As a high pressure remains to our north and in control of the nice weather we have been having, tonight will be another night with mostly clear to partly cloudy skies. The latter portion of the week features loss of influence of Atlc high pressure, as it retreats to the east over the open Atlantic.
/Issued 330 PM EDT Wed Oct 20 2021/ Precipitation chances return overnight and through the short-term forecast period as the upper-level ridging flattens in response to the short wave moving through the Great Lakes region. Associated cold front approaches during the day Thursday and settles into the forecast area Thursday night.
Mid and high clouds increase overnight in advance of a cold front.
Showers will be most likely along the cold front with more spotty activity out ahead of it in the warm sector. Winds will shift from the west and northwest in the wake of this front with slightly cooler air advecting into the region during the day. Instability along/ahead of the cold front may support a few thunderstorms tomorrow late morning into the afternoon, mainly across north MS and portions of southwest TN. Unfortunately, this wont last long as a cold front will move through early tomorrow morning.
634 PM CDT Wed Oct 20 2021 Cold front approaching northwest AR at this time is expected to pass across the SE terminals by the end of the day.
High temperatures will trend warmer each day through the weekend.
857 PM EDT Wed Oct 20 2021 A cold front will bring showers on Thursday. No changes were needed for the even update as eroding high pressure wl maintain dry weather tonight although strengthening WSW flow aloft will increase high, and eventually mid level cloudiness.
902 PM CDT Wed Oct 20 2021 Upper low continues to advect east this evening. Winds remain gusty as well, with the gradient persisting through 03-06Z, but weakening thereafter (though mixing and high humidity will keep temperatures probably above freezing despite clearing).
517 PM MDT Wed Oct 20 2021 Current surface analysis shows low over far southern MN, with high pressure centered to the north of the region. Milder and drier weather will return for the next several days, at least through the weekend, as a building ridge over the Great Basin and Rockies will hold on for a while.
Skies have mostly cleared across north central Kansas today with persistent cloud cover still lingering across much of south central Nebraska behind a departing area of low pressure. surface temperatures are expected to drop into the lower to middle 30s across much of the area overnight.
Clear skies have developed early this afternoon as drier air and subsidence spread east behind this morning's cold front and on the south side of the upper low near FSD. Guidance remains rather consistent with lows in the upper 30s to lower 40s, coolest in the west where the high cloud would move in first. Have shaded temps on the cooler side of model means for Thursday and Thursday night with high cloud spreading east and thickening through the day, then clearing in the evening with modest north-northwest winds becoming light overnight.
Abundant moisture remains present in the lower-levels and calm winds are expected.
There is a well-mixed layer present in the lower-levels, which indicates good instability. Easterly winds continue to remain in the background with the ridge axis centered to the north of the peninsula.
818 PM EDT Wed Oct 20 2021 Another beautiful evening has made itself present across the Florida Keys! Temperatures across the island chain are currently in the low 80s and dew points in the upper 60s. A high pressure system over the southeastern United States is continuing to feed dry air and pleasant, yet breezy, conditions across the island chain and coastal wasters. From synopsis, a high pressure system centered over the southeastern United States will move east over the western Atlantic tonight, resulting in breezy conditions.
530 PM CDT Wed Oct 20 2021 Rounds of showers and storms today will continue into the overnight hours as a low pressure system currently situated on the Iowa/Minnesota boarder moves east into Wisconsin tonight. As the cyclone moves east tonight, its cold front will pass through providing forcing for additional showers. The cyclone begins to occlude as it approaches helping the rain shield to wrap around the northwestern quadrant of the cyclone. Cooler temperatures and gusty winds are expected tomorrow thanks to northerly flow behind the cold front. Most areas will see high temperatures in the low to mid 50s with sustained winds of 10-15 knots and gusts up to 20-25 knots. Once the system currently impacting the area moves out of the region, a large area of high pressure looks to settle in for a couple of days.
Weak mid level ridging has moved across S TX but will be followed by another short wave tonight.
658 PM CDT Wed Oct 20 2021 A cold front will sweep across the state today bringing widely scattered showers and a few storms this evening followed by cooler temperatures the remainder of the week.
328 PM MDT Wed Oct 20 2021 Mostly clear skies and light winds will optimize radiational cooling tonight, as low-amplitude midlevel ridging affects the region. Low temperatures tonight are expected to range from the upper teens and lower/middle 20s over the San Luis Valley and the mountains, to the lower/middle 30s over the plains, to the upper 30s and lower 40s over the eastern slopes of the southeastern Colorado mountains. On Thursday, midlevel ridging will amplify over the Great Basin, with downstream subsident flow supporting the continuation of dry conditions and mostly clear skies. Temperatures will moderate to some extent on Thursday, with Thursday high temperatures expected to be in the lower 60s over the San Luis Valley and in the upper 60s to the lower 70s over the plains, while ranging from the 30s to the 50s over the mountains.
Dry weather will likely follow the front for the weekend with some cooler temperatures. Weak convergence along a lee side trough and modest moisture advection may allow for isolated showers to develop. A cold front pushes through The Midlands and CSRA on Friday. High pressure builds into the Southeast U.
Lingering high clouds are having little impact on radiational cooling and temperatures are in the low to mid 20s across our northwest and still falling out of the 30s further south as lower clouds clear. Relatively quiet today with less wind and cooler highs in the 40s as northerly flow maintains the cold air mass aloft. The clouds associated with this wave may limit radiational cooling and where it tracks lows may hold just below freezing rather than the 20s which are still likely where it remains clear.
1143 PM CDT Wed Oct 20 2021 Quiet weather and cold temperatures continue, with the coldest readings occurring in a clear area from near Crosby south- southeast through Glen Ullin where some areas have dipped into the lower 20s. For today, upper low will continue to slowly move east/northeast across western South Dakota/Nebraska mid to late afternoon, sliding over the Iowa/Nebraska border by evening. This will result in the coldest night we have had so far over the area, with widespread lows in the lower to mid 20s. High pressure lingers over the region for Thursday, resulting in a mostly sunny sky, lighter winds, and daytime high temperatures ranging from the low 40s east to mid 50s southwest.
1118 PM EDT Wed Oct 20 2021 High pressure over the Carolinas will slide off the east coast the second half of this week, keeping temperatures above normal through Thursday. Low pressure will track north of Pennsylvania late Thursday, dragging a cold front through the area.
) Slightly cooler temperatures on Thursday, before a warming trend begins Friday.
/Issued 330 PM EDT Wed Oct 20 2021/ Precipitation chances return overnight and through the short-term forecast period as the upper-level ridging flattens in response to the short wave moving through the Great Lakes region. Associated cold front approaches during the day Thursday and settles into the forecast area Thursday night. 20 The cold front mentioned in the short term forecast discussion should be positioned in the vicinity of the I-85/I-20 corridors on Friday.
954 PM MDT Wed Oct 20 2021 Current surface analysis shows low over far southern MN, with high pressure centered to the north of the region. Milder and drier weather will return for the next several days, at least through the weekend, as a building ridge over the Great Basin and Rockies will hold on for a while.
1048 PM CDT Wed Oct 20 2021 (This evening through Thursday) High pressure will build across the forecast area in wake of the cold frontal passage today.
In it's wake, a ridge of high pressure at the surface is progged to nose into the Central Plains later tonight bringing decreasing wind speeds and some enhanced radiational cooling to portions of the area. Low level southerly flow will return from west to east on Friday as high pressure shifts east/southeast across the Mississippi Valley area and pressure falls occur across the High Plains. Moderating temperatures are anticipated with highs climbing into the low to mid 70s. Any storm activity Sat night should focus north of our area as the warm front propagates into northeast KS/southeast NE.
246 AM CDT Thu Oct 21 2021 Increasing cloudiness overnight ahead of a cold front expected to move through the area later today. Shower/t'storm coverage will begin to increase this afternoon starting in our northwest and moving eastward as the cold front draws closer to our area. Expect for temps to be slightly cooler today than yesterday as additional cloud coverage will be present. As the cold front moves through this afternoon into the early evening hours, there will be a small window for some strong to severe t'storms to develop mainly on the Plateau. Behind today's cold front will be a short-lived burst of much cooler temperatures with highs sticking in the 60s.
Friday should be dry and cooler as temperatures will be in the lower 70s.
(Today through Tonight) Forecast Messages: 1) Cooler temperatures today and warmer temperatures Friday.
WV imagery indicates a closed upper low shifting east through the Upper Midwest. Meanwhile, ridging aloft is slowly building across the Intermountain West. Near the surface, high pressure extends from the Dakotas southward into the high plains of western Kansas. A center of high pressure will continue to sink southward across the plains through the morning. In response to the high, the northwest winds will eventually weaken towards dusk. Some guidance is warmer, some is cooler.
An upper low and trough has moved into southern Canada and northern Montana this evening and ridging is beginning to develop over the area. Skies remain broken to overcast and expect that will continue through the night though the clouds will lift to 10K feet and above as the ridge build over the region. Lows tonight will be cooler tonight than last night as cloudiness decreases late in the night. Highs tomorrow will be a few degrees warmer than today due to the ridging and especially in the Blue Mountain Foothills which will also have downsloping southerly winds of around 10 mph. Most of the area will be in the mid 60s to mid 70s with upper 50s to mid 60s in the higher mountains.
Showers will be most likely along the cold front with more spotty activity out ahead of it in the warm sector. Winds will shift from the west and northwest in the wake of this front with slightly cooler air advecting into the region during the day. Instability along/ahead of the cold front may support a few thunderstorms tomorrow late morning into the afternoon, mainly across north MS and portions of southwest TN. Unfortunately, this wont last long as a cold front will move through early tomorrow morning. We'll see nice temperatures again Thursday night into Friday with temperatures in the lower 70s by Friday.
Tranquil conditions will persist today and tonight as ridging aloft slowly builds in the Intermountain West, setting up a northwest flow across the Western High Plains. Expect highs up into the lower/mid 70s(F) across much of southwest Kansas with the mid/upper 60s(F) still possible in central Kansas.
TODAY: The large upper level low continues to spin across the Tri- state area early this afternoon. We're continuing to see scattered convection redevelop on the eastward side of the upper low, in an area of slightly enhanced mid-lvl lapse rates. TONIGHT: The upper low will continue to move eastward tonight, though eventually moisture aloft will start to dissipate. Clouds should hold temperatures upwards through the night, but gradual cold advection at the surface will still push lows towards the lower to middle 30s. Friday itself will be cooler once again with highs in the 40s in most locations.
127 AM EDT Thu Oct 21 2021 A cold front pushes through today with showers and a chance of thunderstorms. Slightly cooler weekend ahead. An upper level trough and an associated cold front will push through the area today and this evening. Most of the energy from the upper level low will pass north of the region, but the cold front is pretty vigorous and will provide decent low level lift. Showers associated with the cold front will wrap up along the higher terrain as we open up the forecast period.
A nearly zonal flow pattern will be in place over the forecast area through Thursday, after which the eastern states upper trof pattern amplifies through Friday. Dry conditions are expected on Friday as progressively drier deep layer air flows into the area as the eastern states upper trof continues to amplify. Highs on Thursday will be around 80 to the lower 80s, then highs on Friday range from the mid to upper 70s well inland to the lower 80s elsewhere.
415 AM EDT Thu Oct 21 2021 Showers and thunderstorms return this afternoon and evening with a cold front. Sfc and coupled upper low pressure is centered over Wisconsin this morning, beginning to push across the Great Lakes as an associated cold front trails across the Midwest. The Upper Ohio Valley remains in the warm sector, with a warm frontal boundary analyzed well to the north across southern Ontario. Instability continues to be the limiting factor for more than an isolated strong to severe storm threat, though sfc heating may be aided a bit by the general lack of showers through the morning and early afternoon hours in advance of the cold front.
A weak cold front across Northwest and North Texas is forecast to slow its southward progress, remaining just north of the CWA through the day. The front is forecast to lift back north as a warm front on Friday.
The low-level flow will gradually veer from easterly to southerly tonight as high pressure moves east of the area. Within this broad cyclonic flow across the southeast, a weak upper level trough and associated cold front will pass through the region late Friday night.
1119 PM EDT Wed Oct 20 2021 A cold front will bring showers on Thursday. No changes were needed for the even update as eroding high pressure wl maintain dry weather tonight although strengthening WSW flow aloft will increase high, and eventually mid level cloudiness. Beyond Thursday evening, upper level low pressure will continue to meander near the southern tip of Hudson Bay. A weak secondary cold front may provide isolated showers late Thursday night/Friday morning.
Clear skies have developed early this afternoon as drier air and subsidence spread east behind this morning's cold front and on the south side of the upper low near FSD. Guidance remains rather consistent with lows in the upper 30s to lower 40s, coolest in the west where the high cloud would move in first. Have shaded temps on the cooler side of model means for Thursday and Thursday night with high cloud spreading east and thickening through the day, then clearing in the evening with modest north-northwest winds becoming light overnight. A weak wave in the northwest flow moves through the upper Missouri Valley Friday and brings weak 850 mb warm-air advection into Kansas for a warmer day.
The Midwestern system's cold front is forecast to arrive in southeastern Arkansas around Noon tomorrow before ultimately moving southeast across our whole forecast area.
Friday will be warmer, but still pleasant and dry. Northwest winds and CAA will hold temperatures in the low to mid 60s this afternoon. A warmer day is expected on Friday as southerly flow and WAA return.
The greatest chance for tstms and showers will remain E of I-55, but will most likely diminish by the early evening hours as a cold front makes its way SE through the region. /AJ/ Flow aloft will gradually become more quasi-zonal across the region through the course of the upcoming weekend, as troughing exits and ridging builds in from the west. High pressure at the surface will steadily build east through the forecast area during this time.
419 AM EDT Thu Oct 21 2021 Notably cooler today with nearly steady temperatures.
Meanwhile mid-level water vapor shows a well defined shrtwv trof across nrn MX. Downstream of shrtwv trof mid/upper level clouds have spread into the Trans Pecos.
Upper low continues to advect east this evening. Winds remain gusty as well, with the gradient persisting through 03-06Z, but weakening thereafter (though mixing and high humidity will keep temperatures probably above freezing despite clearing). Temperatures will dip below freezing for early Friday however a mid level wave will pass overhead early in the morning, with mid level moisture and ascent in the dendritic growth zone.
At the surface, high pressure axis is moving farther east. resulting in a gradual veering of the low level wind flow to the southeast, and eventually light southerly this afternoon.
A weak cold front will begin to move into the area overnight and as it progresses southward, we could see some MVFR to low VFR cigs.
High pressure will then start to build into the area, causing skies to become mostly clear by 00Z. An upper level ridge amplifies over the region on Thursday, yielding fair and mild weather. Fair and breezy weather continues into Friday as this upper level ridge moves away to the east.
Improving conditions should occur closer to daybreak as the slow moving cold front makes farther southward progress through the night. /Issued 840 PM CDT Wed Oct 20 2021/ A cold front extends from extreme southeast Kansas to near Okmulgee and into south-central Oklahoma this evening.
Tranquil conditions will persist today and tonight as ridging aloft slowly builds in the Intermountain West, setting up a northwest flow across the Western High Plains. Expect highs up into the lower/mid 70s(F) across much of southwest Kansas with the mid/upper 60s(F) still possible in central Kansas. A dry pattern will continue Friday into the early part of the weekend as weak ridging aloft moves out of the Colorado Rockies into the Western High Plains.
Mostly low VFR and MVFR through the period as swly moisture advection prevails ahead of an approaching cold front. The highest probabilities for tsra will be at CHA/TYS, possibly +tsra at these two sites albeit not mentioned in taf at this time. CDG Chattanooga Airport, TN 75 51 69 50 73 / 60 60 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 73 51 66 49 70 / 60 70 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 71 49 66 48 70 / 70 60 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 72 50 63 47 66 / 40 60 10 10 0.
Otherwise, expect high pressure to build into the region and dominate over the area through Friday.
This weekend, a weak frontal boundary will move over Florida and dissipate, with weak high pressure building over the southeastern U.
The wave will bring a dry warm front today that warm temperatures 10 to 15 degrees above where they were yesterday for highs.
Increasing cloudiness overnight ahead of a cold front expected to move through the area later today. Shower/t'storm coverage will begin to increase this afternoon starting in our northwest and moving eastward as the cold front draws closer to our area. Expect for temps to be slightly cooler today than yesterday as additional cloud coverage will be present. As the cold front moves through this afternoon into the early evening hours, there will be a small window for some strong to severe t'storms to develop mainly on the Plateau. Behind today's cold front will be a short-lived burst of much cooler temperatures with highs sticking in the 60s.
612 AM CDT Thu Oct 21 2021 Temperatures range from the low to upper 20s across much of our CWA, with temps right at 30 in our far east where ti too longer for mid level clouds to clear. Lingering high clouds are having little impact on radiational cooling and temperatures are in the low to mid 20s across our northwest and still falling out of the 30s further south as lower clouds clear. Relatively quiet today with less wind and cooler highs in the 40s as northerly flow maintains the cold air mass aloft. The clouds associated with this wave may limit radiational cooling and where it tracks lows may hold just below freezing rather than the 20s which are still likely where it remains clear.
Upper level analysis places modest ridging over the southern and central Rockies, with a compact low noted over the Alberta plains. For today, quiet weather starts the day, but clouds will be on the increase this afternoon as the compact upper low over Alberta ejects easterly into Saskatchewan and opens up. For tonight, aforementioned system zips towards the southeast down the front side of a ridge building over the Rockies as it gets wrapped into the flow of an upper low over James Bay. Quiet weather expected Friday with upper ridge to the west. Warmest temperatures expected over the southwest, cooler to the east.
Skies are expected to clear and become mostly sunny by mid afternoon as the ridge of high pressure re-establishes itself across the Great Basin. Highs today will be warmer than yesterday but still a few degrees below normal. High clouds will move across the CWA from the southwest as the Pacific trough pushes onshore by Friday afternoon, allowing the ridge axis to also shift directly overhead. Our CWA will barely get clipped by this trough, resulting in perhaps some breezy winds across northeast Utah and northwest Colorado.