Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1216 PM EDT Wed Aug 9 2017 A few cumulus beginning to develop across southeast and south central Kentucky as dewpoints increase into the low-mid 60s. High pressure will continue shifting east across the Appalachians, allowing moisture to stream northward this afternoon with isolated showers making a run at the Lake Cumberland region later today. High pressure resides over the Ohio river valley presently, providing plenty of clear skies and light winds to the region. As the high shifts north and east today, some moisture will try to work northward across central/eastern TN. The model consensus is for the period to begin with an upper level ridge centered over the Southern Plains with ridging extending into the Rockies and portions of the Pacific Northwest and a trough encompassing much of the Central to Eastern Conus.
941 AM EDT Wed Aug 9 2017 A large area of high pressure will slowly move across the region today and tonight before exiting off the Mid Atlantic Coast Thursday. Thursday, weak low pressure will move east through the Tennessee Valley as another low moves into the western Great Lakes. Today and tonight high pressure will dominate the region. Thursday the high will drift off the east coast and low pressure will move into the western Great Lakes. Moisture will increase across the region, especially the eastern half of the area through Thursday ahead of the low.
1203 PM EDT Wed Aug 9 2017 High pressure exits early tonight. Fog and low clouds that formed overnight have dissipated, However, diurnal clouds have developed across the higher terrain. Latest guidance suggests daytime highs may be a little cooler than forecasted. High pressure continues to dominate the area, bringing mostly dry conditions, and seasonal temperatures. Temperatures should reach the low to mid 80s in the lowlands, and high 70s in the mountains, with dry conditions dominating. Humidity will be on the increase in the short term period, as a warm frontal boundary lifts north across the region. High pressure will bring about a VFR day today, once the fog is gone. Surface flow will remain light and variable per exiting high pressure, while light and variable flow aloft today becomes light south tonight.
Isolated showers and thunderstorms will increase in coverage during the afternoon hours as an upper level low across SE Texas slowly moves eastward today. 50 inches/, in addition to a cold frontal boundary draped from southeast TX northeast to across south central MS providing frontogenetical support. The UL low is progged to gradually push eastward from southeast TX to across southern LA throughout today, whilst the cold front washes out and retreats as a warm front across the region /winds veer to an upslope/southeasterly component/. Slight west- northwest flow aloft will veer further to the northwest tomorrow courtesy of the Desert southwest UA ridge shifting eastward to across central TX by late week.
701 AM EDT Wed Aug 9 2017 Quiet weather expected today and Thursday with high pressure in place. The next storm system moves through this weekend with cooler temperatures and scattered showers and thunderstorms. High pressure at the surface, zonal flow aloft and a very dry air mass will combine to create very quiet weather conditions across central NY and ne PA today and Thursday.
The region will be under mainly nw flow today as a ridge continues to build to our west. Elsewhere will see a few clouds with some slightly warmer but still below normal temperatures for today.
Weak upper troughiness to remain over the region. Surface front to remain stalled over the region, perhaps shift north some as a warm front. Upper troughiness to dig slightly over the E CONUS.
1258 PM EDT Wed Aug 9 2017 VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF period as high pressure over the Ohio Valley shifts towards the East Coast. Dry boundary layer will promote well-mixed conditions favoring another round of overachieving temps reaching the low 80s. Thursday will represent a transition day as the approaching wave shunts high pressure to the east and southerly return flow commences.
753 AM EDT Wed Aug 9 2017 Building high pressure will provide dry weather into Thursday, with a chance of rain extending through the weekend.
1043 AM MDT Wed Aug 9 2017 Current surface analysis shows low pressure over north central ND, with cold front extending southwestward to north central WY. Cold front will slowly slide southeast across the area through the morning hours, reaching southern portions of the CWA by early afternoon, then stalling out from parts of east central WY to southeast SD later this afternoon and evening.
1141 AM EDT Wed Aug 9 2017 High pressure will build in today, then pass east on Thursday.
Morning upper air and satellite imagery shows upper level low and trough over northern ND, southern Canada into southeast MT.
945 AM PDT Wed Aug 9 2017 A weak trough along the West Coast trough will bring night and morning coastal clouds through the weekend with clearing each afternoon.
955 AM EDT Wed Aug 9 2017 Subtropical ridge axis has drifted northward over the past 24hrs, now extends from Bermuda to the NE GOMex. Upstream, latest RAP40 analysis shows an easterly wave approaching the nrn Bahamas with a dry low lvl air mass/mid lvl thermal ridge riding ahead of it: H100-H70 mean RH btwn 60-70pct, H70 temps btwn 10-11C, H50 temps btwn -5/-6C, H70-H50 btwn 5. Subtropical ridge axis extending from Bermuda to the NE GOMex will maintain a light to gentle E/SE breeze acrs the lcl Atlc waters through midweek.
An upper ridge centered in the northeast Gulf of Mexico this morning and an upper low off the extreme northeast Cuban coast ease eastward today with some drier air spreading into southern then central FL. An old frontal trough along the Gulf coast will keep rain odds slightly higher for the Nature Coast. Broad high pressure will ridge across northern waters today with a relaxed gradient.
723 AM EDT Wed Aug 9 2017 High pressure will build in through Wednesday, then pass east on Thursday.
High pressure resides over the Ohio river valley presently, providing plenty of clear skies and light winds to the region. As the high shifts north and east today, some moisture will try to work northward across central/eastern TN. The model consensus is for the period to begin with an upper level ridge centered over the Southern Plains with ridging extending into the Rockies and portions of the Pacific Northwest and a trough encompassing much of the Central to Eastern Conus.
1024 AM EDT Wed Aug 9 2017 High pressure will remain over Pennsylvania the next couple of days, then push off the east coast late in the week.
A upper level trough centered off the northern California coast will continue to eject a series of weak weather disturbances across northern Utah and southwest Wyoming today and tonight. The highest precipitable water values are currently across northern Utah, surpassing the 1 inch mark, while southern Utah is about 0.
High pressure aloft will continue to dominate the weather pattern over the region through Thursday, resulting in little change in the weather conditions.
High pressure continues to reinforce from the northeast today behind the front which will help maintain weak SW flow. The warm front will continue to make its way nwd thru the mid TN Valley tonight/Thu, with additional showers/tstms possible along/S of the advancing boundary, mainly this evening and again Thu afternoon where latent heating is maximized. Weak upper impulses embedded within the broad upper trough axis will also continue to traverse ewd across much of the region and provide an added focus mech for shower/tstm development Thu night/Fri. A frontal boundary current south of the region will head northward as a warm front before this period, then become diffuse/dissipate north of the area this weekend.
Another round of showers and thunderstorms will likely develop late this afternoon across the higher terrain of ern NM and sern CO. High pressure will remain centered over southern parts of the CONUS.
/issued 317 PM CST Sat Nov 11 2017/ Skies are mostly sunny across the forecast area this afternoon with temperatures ranging from the the lower 50s to mid 60s. A weak cold front will move across Oklahoma this evening and reach northwest Arkansas by Sunday morning. The cold front will move out of the region Sunday night with a small chance of rain over far eastern sections in the evening.
656 PM EST Sat Nov 11 2017 Aviation Low pressure moving toward Lower Michigan tonight will bring a mix of precipitation from light snow to light rain to perhaps some light freezing rain that will end late Sunday. Forecast soundings suggest the pcpn will begin as snow but then try to transition to some freezing rain. This doesn't look like a classic freezing rain event. Forecast soundings tonight do show a narrow wedge of warmer air near h8, but not really pronounced. Overall, we'll probably see some light freezing rain briefly late tonight and Sunday before the sfc warms and pcpn transitions to mixed rain and snow.
828 PM EST Sat Nov 11 2017 A 5-6 MB pressure gradient between strong high pressure along the eastern seaboard and lower pressure over the Caribbean is supporting a strong northeast to easterly wind flow across the entire forecast area this evening. Temperatures will be mild and above normal the rest of tonight with lows in the lower to mid 60s inland areas, and mid to upper 60s along the coast.
826 PM MST Sat Nov 11 2017 Weak upper level trough has moved east of the area so it will be dry the rest of tonight over the higher terrain. Gusty winds of 25 to 45 mph mainly over the mountains and Cheyenne Ridge will start decreasing this evening. The disturbance will push a dry cold front down across the area this evening and overnight. Tomorrow's highs will be about 10 degrees cooler than today's readings under mostly clear skies as up upper ridge moves overhead. Surface pressure gradients will increase over the eastern plains as high pressure slips into the Great Plains, creating southerly winds with gusts to 25 mph.
High pressure builds on Sunday though lingering low level moisture should keep clouds around most of the day though there will likely be peeks of sunshine here and there.
908 PM EST Sat Nov 11 2017 Dry Canadian high pressure over the eastern half of the country will move offshore tonight.
The cloud deck in the east was associated with warm advection overtop a backdoor cold front. Also worthy of noting was the low level swirl over the northern Gulf of Mexico that was responsible some convection there.
Forecast soundings show a 5000-6000-foot above freezing warm layer and wet bulbs greater than 0C. High temperatures on Sunday will be in the lower to middle 40s.
The exception will be in the Lower Treasure Valley, including Ontario, where there is the potential for fog as the winds will remain light. Clouds will increase within a southwest flow aloft ahead of an approaching trough through Sunday, but no precipitation is expected.
On Sunday, expect more sunshine with high pressure and drier air moving in.
A cold front boundary remains stationary around the Lake area, which is the main source of showers tonight.
615 PM EST Sat Nov 11 2017 High pressure moves off the Mid Atlantic coast tonight.
934 PM EST Sat Nov 11 2017 High pressure will crest over the region tonight and will shift east on Sunday.
Fog and Drizzle Tonight with Cold Front Sunday. Ahead of another cold front tomorrow, expect low clouds, drizzle, and fog later tonight. The cold front will likely arrive at our Interstate 20 corridor a few hours after sunrise.
There is a large thermal gradient across the region from east to west, east being warmer by 15-20 degrees. This will continue to be the trend through the remainder of the evening hours though the light rain will begin to wane with the loss of the daytime heating and the trough begins to dissipate. Overnight lows will be slightly warmer owing to the cloud cover and the warmer starting point than days past. Trended a little cooler than guidance across this area but we still bring temperatures back up closer to average, a little above average for everyone else.
Moisture return is already underway on the back side of a large arctic anticyclone over the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic. Lift will increase in this moistening boundary layer ahead of the cold front tonight into Sunday.
High pressure aloft will build across the region through tonight, followed by a warm and dry southwest flow aloft to begin the new week.
730 PM EST Sat Nov 11 2017 Fair and cold conditions will prevail into Sunday as arctic high pressure overhead slides to the east.
High pressure east of Central Indiana will exit the area tonight. weak low pressure over the southern plains will begin to push toward the Ohio Valley. As the low departs on Sunday Night. another high pressure system will build across the Ohio Valley. Surface analysis shows large High pressure in place over Upstate NY. This should mainly just result in increasing clouds overnight as forecast soundings and time heights show dry air in the lower levels and saturation well aloft. The GFS shows a weak but broad trough of low pressure pushing in to the region stretching from the Great lakes to lower Mississippi Valley. Models show a cold front passing on Sunday night as surface flow becomes northwesterly. Strong High pressure over the northern Plains then begins to build across the region. Ridging aloft remains west of Indiana on Sunday night.
504 PM EST Sat Nov 11 2017 High pressure will maintain dry and cold weather through tonight. Rain chances return late Sunday as low pressure approaches. Dry conditions will continue as high pressure completes transition across the region under zonal flow aloft. but slightly warmer due to upper cloudiness and neutral, to weak warm advection.
638 PM EST Sat Nov 11 2017 Ample low level moisture combined with a remnant frontal trough across the south-central peninsula will support periods of MVFR cigs and some light showers at all of the terminal sites during the next 24 hours, otherwise VFR will prevail. Cold Arctic high pressure over the Mid Atlantic states down the Eastern Seaboard with stalling front over S FL to keep fairly tight pressure gradient over the region with NE-E low level flow in place. Weak inverted trough off the Space Coast to enhance extra lift with some overrunning and enhanced lift aloft.
241 PM PST Sat Nov 11 2017 Expect dry and mild conditions under the influence of weak high pressure through the weekend.
CVKING Active pattern this week as two upper level trofs will impact the region.
A high will build in over the weekend for warmer than nornal temperatures. The influx of thicker higher level clouds make the low cloud formation fairly low confidence.
737 PM MST Sat Nov 11 2017 Continuing analysis this evening provides higher confidence that persistent freezing fog over Blaine county will expand westward up the Milk River Valley tonight. A Freezing Fog Advisory was issued with this update, in effect through 9am Sunday. Some locations along the Milk River within the advisory area will experience dense freezing fog with visibility less than 1/4 mile. PN Building high pressure aloft will bring mostly dry and breezy conditions to the region through Sunday with temperatures remaining near seasonal averages.
906 PM EST Sat Nov 11 2017 High pressure through tonight.
A weak cold front will move south tonight with a shift to north winds behind the front. As a cold front moves across the area tonight into Sunday, drizzle or rain chances will end from north to south, with the exception of far southwest Oklahoma and western north Texas.
633 PM EST Sat Nov 11 2017 High pressure through tonight.
The advance of cloud cover and the latest MOS guidance suggest warmer temperatures than forecast, so lows will be bumped up slightly.
Highs on Sunday ranging from the low to mid 60s inland to the lower 70s farther to the south (especially for coastal areas).
Don't expect much of any precipitation as the low levels continue to remain dry, with an increase in moisture mainly at the mid and high levels, resulting in mid and high level cloud cover.
Given the weak dry air advection expected along with increasing subsidence with the approaching upper level ridge, think that fog development may not be that extensive. Will continue to go closer to the warmer MAV guidance for high temperatures.
High pressure extends from the northern gulf coast into New England this afternoon while a weak inverted trough is drifting west south of the delta. The inverted trough of the gulf will drift closer around the base of the ridge increasing winds somewhat over the coastal waters and potentially creating a few showers offshore. Near normal temperatures are expected through mid week as high pressure moves across the region. Late in the week the ridge will move to the Atlantic coast returning gulf moisture.
Sunday evening, a much stronger cold front will approach, causing stronger winds.
A large area of low clouds extended from Manitoba across northeastern ND, associated with an upper level low/trough over the border of Minnesota/Manitoba that will exit to the east tonight. Cold advection will continue pushing into North Dakota from the northwest as the high center moves southeast across the state tonight. Farther southwest, neutral temperature advection along with cloud cover should keep overnight lows into the lower 20s. On Sunday, upper level ridging returns and the cold high continues moving east towards the Great Lakes.
Will continue the low pops over mainly Jones/Lyman counties. As for the precipitation type, profiles show a layer aloft that is above freezing, but just barely so, and wet bulb effect could result in snow reaching the surface. Return flow and warm advection sets up for Sunday with a light southwest component for the James valley - and as such tuned temperatures a bit warmer for our area. Generally speaking, the flow pattern from Sunday night through Saturday is an uneventful one; brief periods of zonal flow punctuated by pendulum swings of northwest flow to southwest flow as upper level ridges and trofs take turns over the western conus.
Thus, current forecast with readings into the lower 30s seems reasonable. Much warmer temperatures will ensue tonight into Sunday morning compared to Saturday morning as warmer temperatures remain in place aloft, along with increasing/lowering cloud cover. Would expect a ridge/valley temperature split as low clouds should hold off until later tonight and a weaker pressure gradient exists compared to last night on the far western flank of surface ridging shifting into New England. Ridges should cool into the mid 30s to low 40s with valleys dropping into the low-mid 30s. The best chance of rain will come Sunday evening across the Bluegrass and northern regions of eastern Kentucky nearer the core of the upper trough.
Vis will improve around sunrise as a cold front moves through, however low clouds (MVFR/IFR) can be expected to persist through the end of the TAF period. An upper level trough will move across the Upper Midwest sending a cold front south into the CWA on Sunday. Upper ridging will move over the region on Sunday as the cold front is moving into the area.
859 PM CST Sat Nov 11 2017 A weak inverted trough embedded in the moderate easterly flow is producing a few showers near the mouth of the Mississippi River.
Tonight and Sunday Snow that moved across much of the area today was mainly in eastern and parts of central Wisconsin at 20Z, and continued to push eastward as a mid level trough passed north of the state. Plenty of low level moisture and some lift behind the departing snow resulted in areas of freezing drizzle. 12Z model time/height plots showed weak or no lift across most of the area by 00Z so any freezing drizzle should come to an end by then in most of the forecast area. Highs should be near or above freezing on Sunday.
Afternoon surface analysis also showed this inverted trough as well as a cold front stretching from near southern Kansas towards southern New Mexico. Periods of scattered to broken mid-level clouds will continue to move across the region overnight as isentropic ascent persists, keeping overnight low temperatures a few degrees warmer than this morning in the mid 50s to upper 60s. The cold front will continue making slow progress towards the region during the day on Sunday, possibly serving as a focusing area for isolated light rain showers across parts of the Brazos Valley and Piney Woods regions.
812 PM EST Sat Nov 11 2017 High pressure moves off the Mid Atlantic coast tonight.
A broad mid-level trough axis was positioned along the foothills of the Rockies. With clearing skies and surface heating, high temperatures will reach the lower 50s Sunday afternoon.
A shallow trough passing through the Upper Mississippi Valley brings a weak front into east TX late Sunday with acts to reinforce the inversion while a weak inverted trough keeps scattered light shower activity anchored over the area through Sunday evening.
Some uptick, and expansion of coverage, of light precipitation, drizzle or light rain, is expected in the area over night as a cold front approaches from the northwest. Moisture return is already underway on the back side of a large arctic anticyclone over the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic. Lift will increase in this moistening boundary layer ahead of the cold front tonight into Sunday.
642 PM EST Sat Nov 11 2017 High pressure will crest over the region tonight and will shift east on Sunday.
834 PM EST Sat Nov 11 2017 High pressure will be in control of the region's weather through Sunday.
The HRRR/RAP are among the warmer solutions for precip type overnight into Sunday, while the 12z Nam was more extreme, colder at the surface and warmer aloft. This solution resulted in more widespread freezing rain before a late change over to snow. A mix of rain, snow and possibly some patches of freezing rain on elevated surfaces, is expected from Dubuque to Freeport late tonight.
540 PM CST Sat Nov 11 2017 At 2 PM, a vigorous short wave trough was moving into the eastern South Dakota. 12z models are in agreement that as the short wave trough will move east southeast through Iowa tonight. With limited ice aloft and temperatures at or above freezing at the surface, the precipitation will be mainly in the form of rain However, on the north edge of this band will have to be watched for a wintry mix. Another thing that will have to be watched is that the dew points are still below freezing, so will have to watch for the potential of freezing rain too. High pressure settles overhead Sunday night with mostly clear skies and light winds resulting.
945 PM EST Sat Nov 11 2017 Arctic high pressure will extend across the eastern United States through Sunday.
Overnight a cold front will push through the region and conditions will deteriorate to IFR/LIFR conditions. However, a cold front will be moving through the area at the same time during the overnight hours. This cold front will only enhance the low stratus across the area especially over the Rolling Plains into the eastern South Plains where low level moisture will be best located. The low clouds will likely persist for a good portion of the daytime on Sunday keeping Sunday a fairly cool day. However, we have sided with the cooler side of guidance for maximum temperatures.
Cloud cover will become overcast in all areas by shortly after midnight, which will help to keep low temps a little warmer. Lows are expected to bottom out in the mid to upper 30s, with the cooler temps toward Danville and surround eastern areas. Winds will remain southeast overnight, ahead of developing low pressure in the Plains. Forecast soundings show a 5000-6000-foot above freezing warm layer and wet bulbs greater than 0C. High temperatures on Sunday will be in the lower to middle 40s.
848 PM MST Sat Nov 11 2017 Light precipitation has ended in our east and it will be dry through the remainder of the night as ridge builds in from the west. The fog could well back up the Yellowstone valley, but at this time, the high res models keep it from Treasure county east. Flow backs tonight and Sunday for a dry and warmer day. An upper trough moves toward the Pacific Northwest coast and allows some energy to swing across Montana for increasing clouds.