Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
607 AM CST Wed Dec 28 2016 H5 analysis from 00z tonight has a broad low amplitude pattern across the lower 48. Winds INVOF of the trough were westerly and northwesterly overnight. Strong H85 winds are present behind the trough, however, cool air advection is weak today, so mixing potential is marginal. This yielded highs in the lower to middle 40s in the south and eastern CWA vs. For tonight: High pressure will build into Wyoming and the western panhandle. Wind will continue to be on the breezy to windy side Thursday, as a tight pressure gradient between higher pressure across the Rockies and low pressure moving across Canada. The gradient quickly relaxes by Thursday afternoon as high pressure builds eastward from the Rockies.
428 AM CST Wed Dec 28 2016 The forecast area will be under confluent upper level flow as short wave ridging in the southern branch of the jet stream will extend across northern Mexico into the desert southwest while an upper trough in the northern branch moves across the northern plains. This latter feature will push a cold front southward into the forecast area in a backdoor fashion this afternoon bringing cooler air into the northeastern third of the forecast area by the end of the day. Widespread high cloud may be thick enough to retard wind speed potential a bit, so will keep speeds near or just below the higher GFS-based objective guidance. A blend of MOS with a lean toward the warmer MET numbers in line with the inherited forecast looks good at this time.
Highs in the low to mid 50s are expected Thursday, with widespread lows at or below the freezing mark Thursday night.
The front will remain to our north so we will be in the warm sector with S/SW flow producing near record highs in the lower 90s (see below).
Scattered showers have increased across portions of the fa over the last few hours as lift associated with the upper low has spread into the area. Showers and thunderstorms will remain possible across portions of the area into tonight but gradually end overnight into early Wednesday as the upper low moves away from the fa.
For the rest of tonight, the area will be missed by the low developing over the Central Plains tonight and then lifting northeast into the Lower Great Lakes region tomorrow night.
Lingering shower and thunderstorm activity over the Nature Coast this evening should come to an end as ridging surface and aloft builds back in across Florida. Meanwhile, a rather potent spring storm system will be taking shape over the Central Plains and Mid Mississippi Valley tonight as a vigorous upper-level trough pushes eastward. A strengthening cold front will move into the north-central Gulf of Mexico Wednesday afternoon, but any impacts in our region will likely not occur until after Wednesday evening. It will remain very warm and humid through Wednesday, with temperatures remaining near or above 70 degrees tonight along the coast, then climbing through the lower 90s inland Wednesday afternoon.
Main highlight this period is the ongoing well-above normal temperatures this afternoon and then the nice cool down expected for tomorrow due to a dry cold frontal passage overnight. By peak heating in a few hours, locations across the Rio Grande Plains could be upwards of the low to mid 90s with upper 80s most other locations (other than the Hill Country which will still push into the mid 80s). Despite this potent system, the atmosphere over south-central Texas remains too dry in the low- and mid-levels to support much cloud generation, much less any rain or thunderstorm chances. The system will force a weak cold front southward overnight. Given the stronger forcing of the system will stay north and the low moisture content of the atmosphere, the front will be dry as moves through overnight.
morning as the h5 trough tracks into Iowa. Have the highest pops near the KS/MO borders and the precipitation generally remains south of I80.
227 PM EDT Tue Apr 4 2017 High pressure builds over the area tonight into Wednesday.
A ridge of high pressure will be building over the Northern Rockies the rest of today through tomorrow. This ridge will cause steady warming each day with some of the warmest temperatures felt this year. This ridge does not appear to be as dry as previously forecasted. High levels clouds will be steadily streaming to the area tonight, which should keep temperatures slightly warmer.
234 PM CDT Tue Apr 4 2017 Upper low continues to churn its way ewd across the srn plains this afternoon, and a lack of cloud cover downstream per visible satellite confirms the lack of moisture that our 12Z and 18Z soundings show. Nevertheless, models indicate that at least some recovery will accompany the trof as it moves into central OK later this afternoon/evening. Thunderstorms and the threat for severe weather will come to an end prior to sunrise, but a few shwrs may remain possible as moisture wraps around the back side of the low. Sharpening pressure gradient will accompany the low and will make for some very gusty winds Wed. Cooler and drier air will filter in behind the low late Wed as it finally pushes ewd and leaves us under nw flow aloft.
124 PM EDT Tue Apr 4 2017 Scattered showers will linger today as one low pressure system departs.
There is a limited tornado threat with any supercells that develop near the warm front across NE OK, however the main inhibiting factor remains the lack of deeper low level moisture.
12Z/18Z short range model consensus progs the upper low to track east across the south-central Great Plains and lower MO/OH valleys during the next 24 hours.
405 PM EDT Tue Apr 4 2017 Mainly dry and warm conditions are expected through much of Wednesday before the next low pressure system approaches.
302 PM CDT Tue Apr 4 2017 An upper level low will shift east into central ND this evening, before digging into the southern James River Valley this later tonight. In doing so, a surface cold front will shift from north to south through 00z Wednesday. Expecting the highest pops closest to the mid level low circulation across central and southern North Dakota.
Overall we will see showers diminish and skies clear from west to east between now and 03z as the trof moves east to the Dakotas. Warmer and dry conditions will prevail the next two days as Pacific northwest ridge spreads east over the northern Rockies.
A cold front pushing into west central Texas will come across the region during the overnight early Wednesday morning hours.
With an upper trough over the Northern Plains and an upper ridge over the Pacific NW, northeast Montana lies in NW flow.
A 90-100 kt left jet exit region is pointed at the western Panhandles this morning as an upper level low approaches the region from New Mexico. Temperatures in the northwestern Panhandles were higher than currently forecasted, with Dalhart still in the lower 40s, but Clayton dropping into the lower 30s.
145 PM PDT Tue Apr 4 2017 High pressure aloft will bring another sunny and warm day Wednesday.
Impressive upper jet dynamics coming together with rich 850 mb theta e ridging overlaid with surface isodrosothermal ridging albeit just to our east. Anticipate strong to svr storms developing during heat of day in warm sector ahead of developing cold front, as Low tracks and deepens across cntrl MO/IL/IN.
Looks like a mild night tonight, followed by the possibility of severe storms on Wednesday, as a pre-frontal trough sweeps across the area. The trough axis is forecast to be near the Tennessee River at 18z tomorrow, and on the Cumberland Plateau by 00z Thur. Expect mainly isolated to scattered convection to develop over western parts of Middle Tennessee during the early afternoon, with coverage becoming more widespread as the afternoon wears on and the trough cuts into an area of deeper atmospheric moisture. Surface dew points will quickly fall through the 50s and into the upper 40s after the trough passes tomorrow, with chilly air spreading into our region Wednesday night behind the cold front.
A stalled front to our south will begin to return northward tonight as a classic 500 mb trough takes shape over the Plains. Before that occurs, a warm front will move inland and accelerate northward early Wednesday morning across the forecast area. Scattered storms are expected to develop around 4 AM as warm/moisture advection occurs near the warm front. One possible outcome is storms becoming organized and moving into Georgia, focusing the low-level jet to the east with veering surface winds to the west across Alabama. If the warm sector remains preserved, very strong instability and shear would develop across much of the area, possibly leading to an outbreak of long-track, destructive tornadoes trough 9 PM.
VFR conditions are expected the next 24 hours as strong high pressure ridging builds over the region for the next 24 hours. An upper trough will exit our region to the east today and be followed by upper high pressure ridging building-in from the Pac NW through Wednesday.
We cannot rule out a tornado threat here, but think the better chance for that will be closer to the warm front, just north of the region. Then for Wednesday night, the cold front will swing through overnight, likely bringing us lows by daybreak in the lower 40s. Light Snow and Freezing Temperatures Return.
Ridge of high pressure will be moving into the region today from the west. However, there will be a lot of high and mid levels clouds moving through the ridge so mostly cloudy conditions will prevail. A weak warm front will move across the forecast area overnight with some possible light rain.
Fairly steady cold advection overnight so low temperatures should fall blo freezing over all but the far south. With cooler column temperatures should range closer to average. As dominant upper ridging builds into the central portion of the CONUS, quiet conditions will prevail across the area for the second half of the work week and heading into the weekend.
Expect highs here to only reach into the low to mid 40s. For tonight, skies remain mostly cloudy through midnight before clouds begin to diminish as the low pressure system to the south moves eastward. Strong high pressure builds into the northern US from southern Canada on Wednesday. Slightly cooler temperatures and dry conditions will be in store across the central US as a result. Despite mostly clear skies on Wednesday, high temperatures will only rise into the low to mid 50s.
The highest chances for rain/storms will be across portions of northern and central Oklahoma.
Upper level low currently over the Texas Panhandle with dryline progressing into the forecast area. Cold front is still well north of the area and is progged to move through South Texas between midnight and 6am, pushing offshore by sunrise.
The upper level low that has been responsible for this has slowly eased its way from New Mexico into the Panhandles and is expected to continue pushing eastward over night. After its exit, the weather for the rest of the work week and into the weekend becomes quite benign as high pressure settle over the central CONUS.
The cold front will move slowly inland on Wednesday before stalling and weakening.
Diabatic warming ahead of this line in combination with large scale ascent from approaching trough has weakened CIN, and the environment over south-central and southeast Oklahoma has become modestly unstable with MLCAPE approaching 1,000 J/kg. Scattered showers have increased across portions of the fa over the last few hours as lift associated with the upper low has spread into the area. Showers and thunderstorms will remain possible across portions of the area into tonight but gradually end overnight into early Wednesday as the upper low moves away from the fa.
Northwest winds will be gusty behind the frontal boundary much of the night, and will usher in cooler air. It will be cooler areawide Wednesday, particularly due to gusty northwesterly winds under cyclonic flow aloft on the backside of the departing upper trough.
A warm front will push across the region overnight ahead of an approaching front. As far as temps are concern with warm advection in place lows will be in the lower to middle 60s. Highs for Wednesday will be cool with readings from the upper 60s northwest to the lower 80s southeast. A drier, cooler airmass will begin to filter into the region Wednesday night behind the cold front.
625 PM EDT Tue Apr 4 2017 Mainly dry and warm conditions are expected through much of Wednesday before the next low pressure system approaches.
General consensus is for the highest chance to be in the afternoon in the southeast third to half of the area. an upper level low pressure area currently approaching north central New Mexico/south central Colorado this morning is forecast to move east today reaching southwest Kansas/northwest Oklahoma then east-northeast toward St. High temperatures in the low 40s south where precipitation chances highest to the low/mid 50s far northern zones where precipitation chances much less. high amplitude ridge axis moves toward the area in between storm systems across the east and off the west coast. High temperatures forecast to be in the low to upper 50s with lows in the mid 20s to low 30s.
334 PM CDT Tue Apr 4 2017 Following a sunny and mild day today, a little more active weather will arrive to the Midsouth on Wednesday, courtesy of an upper level low lifting from the southern high plains into MO. The surface reflection of this low will deepen to 998 mb as it passes near St. The overall upper trof will maintain a neutral to positive orientation until a vorticity lobe ejects across the Midsouth Wednesday afternoon. A few elevated storms will possible north of I-40, nearer to the upper low and where midlevel lapse rates exceed 6 C/KM.
High pressure will build with a warming trend through midweek. A low pressure system will bring a chance of rain and cooler temperatures late in the week. Temps warmer today but just a few degrees, and mainly inland. With the ridge overhead it should be less deep and likely not as much valley intrusion, but coastal areas likely will again see overnight low clouds and fog. ***From previous discussion*** The ridge will shift east Wednesday night in response to a trough approaching from the west.
The WRF/NMM/ARW show the advection of these rain showers northward with the mean flow, as well as additional frontogentically forced rains (if temperatures are maintained above freezing) moving through the bulk of the CWA through roughly mid-evening. The lower clouds will become scoured out after midnight, allowing for decent radiational cooling towards 12Z Wednesday. Looking ahead, no true cold advection develops even tomorrow under the northwest surface winds, so models bring highs in the afternoon to near 60s degrees in the lower plains.
352 PM MDT Tue Apr 4 2017 Satellite images this afternoon are showing the upper level low over the OK panhandle. Radar shows some convective snow showers wrapping around the low into southeast CO. Tonight the upper level low will continue its eastward track away from southern CO, however a weather disturbance to our north will be moving south through CO and is expected to bring another round of snow, mainly to the central CO mtns, Pikes Peak, Teller county, the Sangre de Cristo and Wet mtns, and the I-25 corridor. Will downgrade remaining Warnings to Advisories and will remove the highlights for the southwest mtns. Wed will be a dry day as an upper ridge starts to build over the area. Temps are expected to warm into the 40s and 50s at the lower elevations.
1219 PM CDT Tue Apr 4 2017 A cold front extends across the TX panhandle and this feature will move SE and across the state. A cold frontal passage during the early pre-dawn Wednesday morning hours will give us a brief respite from the recent above seasonal afternoon warmth. Cooler and drier air advection will regulate warmth into the afternoon lower to middle 70s.
247 PM MDT Tue Apr 4 2017 Upper level analysis has large trof across the central CONUS, with ridge building across the western US. At the surface, low pressure resides in the southern Plains, with high pressure over the northern Rockies. Upper level trof will continue to shift east this afternoon and evening. Showers will dissipate early this evening as the trough shifts eastward, leaving partly cloudy skies after midnight. Upper ridge will start to build into the area Wednesday night.
218 PM MDT Tue Apr 4 2017 Nearly clear skies tonight will allow for a significant cool off with overnight low temps dropping well below freezing in the valleys. Scattered snow showers will continue over the higher mountains of the Continental Divide through this evening, then dissipate overnight. A small vort max dropping down the west side of the trough within the cold advection and instability behind the trough, over NE Utah and NW CO, will produce isolated showers there until about sunset. ridging will take over bringing about a significant warming trend. night will be 5-10 degrees warmer than today and tonight.
440 PM CDT Tue Apr 4 2017 Sunny and warm across the forecast area this afternoon, with temperatures reaching up into the lower/mid 80s away from the immediate coast. A vigorous upper trof noted in water vapor satellite imagery over the TX/OK panhandles will continue translating generally ENE tonight reaching NW MO early WED. Winds will subside inland by tomorrow evening, with the effect of the cooler and drier continental airmass apparent in low temperatures WED night/THU am falling into the upper 40s/lower 50s. A cold front is forecast to sweep through the area Wednesday morning. A tight pressure gradient behind the front coupled with strong winds within the lowest few thousand feet above ground level will result in a period of sustained winds of 15 to 20 knots with frequent gusts of 25 to 30 knots.
225 PM EDT Tue Apr 4 2017 Decreasing shower activity today with weak high pressure building tonight.
This location and the strength of the low creating a menagerie of weather across the forecast area. South of the trough/front west winds were on the gusty side, although advisory level winds are confined to the far southwestern and south central part of the forecast area. The upper low will move across the Panhandle this evening to a position between OKC and Wichita by midnight. The cold front will sweep pretty quickly southward, clearing the forecast area by 9 pm. While it will remain breezy to windy this afternoon ahead of and then behind the cold front, think a sustained period of advisory level winds will be difficult to achieve this afternoon. Post-frontal airmass and northwest flow aloft behind the exiting system to our east will keep Wednesdays high temperatures 5-10 degrees cooler than normal despite mostly sunny skies.
Places north of I-40 may be a few degrees cooler as clouds slowly increase over the north today.
High clouds continue to move into the area, keeping temperatures slightly below normal for this time of year, despite the long wave ridge situated over the PacNW. The area will soon move into a more progressive pattern as the ridge moves eastward.
Low pressure will emerge from the southern plains tonight and deepen as it moves into southern IL Wednesday afternoon and northeast into IN Wednesday evening. The associated warm front will lift northeast across the area Wednesday with the trailing cold front pushing across eastern KY Wednesday night. However, once the warm front lifts north of the area and winds become more southerly in the afternoon low level moisture will begin to increase with surface dewpoints eventually reaching the middle to upper 50s. It appears there will be a narrow ribbon of surface based instability just ahead of the approaching cold front that will support severe storms, with instability greatest in the western part of the forecast area with less instability in the east.
SHORT TERM (Tonight through Wednesday Night): 500mb low across northeast New Mexico and Texas panhandle this afternoon will move eastward across the southern plains tonight and open up as a 500mb trough across the midwest United States and east TX Wed afternoon. The pressure gradient will increase across the lower TX coast Wednesday and wind advisories will likely be needed for the coastal counties as a result.
203 PM MDT Tue Apr 4 2017 Upper ridging approaches from the west tonight with clear skies, thus allowing for optimal radiational cooling especially over sheltered valleys of Southwest Montana. As stout upper-level ridging moves directly over the area from the west Wednesday temperatures will warm about 10 degrees from today's highs over our region.
/issued 334 AM CST Sun Jan 22 2017/ Upper trough passing over East TX this morning will continue to move away from the region through the day. As it does an upper ridge will build in from the west.
302 PM CST Sun Jan 22 2017 20Z water vapor imagery shows the upper low now over the lower MS river valley and continuing to move east. Another upper low was seen just off the Pacific northwest coast with upper ridging moving over the Rockies. For tonight and Monday, low level moisture remains the main headache as models have not handled the low level stratus very well.
Showers and possibly some isolated thunderstorm activity is likely across much of the area this afternoon into the evening as the low passes over the area. Warmer moist air being wrapped back into the low and quickly cooling mid levels should be enough to keep at least a few hundred J/kg of MUCAPE present through the middle of the day. By the evening, we'll be on the back side of the low with cooling throughout the atmospheric column, and any precip by that point will be rain showers. A tight pressure gradient on the back side of the low will bring in breezy north winds after sunset.
Low pressure system moving away from the area, along with dry air advecting into the region, has ended all precip chances across the Panhandles. /Issued 409 AM CST Sun Jan 22 2017/ As the main upper level low pressure system continues to move east along the Red River, moisture wrapped around the system will continue to bring showers across the region. With current temperatures still well above freezing, precipitation types have consistency reflected just rain across the Panhandles. Once we go into the afternoon hours on Sunday, winds will begin to diminish slowly throughout the day as an upper level ridge axis moves east towards the Panhandles region. With some good downsloping off the high terrain to our west, high temperatures will rebound to lower and perhaps even a few mid 70s for parts of the southern TX Panhandle by Monday.
1019 AM CST Sun Jan 22 2017 Update includes the addition of freezing drizzle moving into north central SD later this morning/early this afternoon, from BIS. An area of low pressure over North Dakota will bring westerly winds and somewhat drier air into the CWA today. Will the low clouds and fog come back again tonight? A majority of the models suggest the fog will finally leave the CWA as much drier air moves into the region from the west. A deep trough currently off the west coast will send upper level energy into the Central Rockies by tonight. The upper level jet support will cause the development of a lee side trough over the front range of the Rockies by Monday.
With weak cold advection temperatures will be cooler than previous nights with minimums blo freezing overnight so any wet roadways may get slick. Monday should be mainly quiet with temperatures generally at or blo freezing. VSBY more variable with the lowest vsby just east of the valley.
/Issued 1041 AM CST Sun Jan 22 2017/ Upper low currently sliding e-se across southern Arkansas this morning. With the forecast area now on the backside of the upper low.
255 PM CST Sun Jan 22 2017 Quite the uneventful next 24 hours over this region as there's deep upper level troughs over each CONUS coast with weak ridging over the central states along with weak high pressure moving in from the west. After daybreak Monday, the rate of clearing will improve as drier air will be advected in from the west, aiding in visibility first then scouring out the low clouds. With some clearing and drier air in western MN, lows will be a bit cooler, dropping to the mid 20s to lower 30s.