Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
418 AM CDT Wed Jul 15 2020 An upper level ridge centered over Texas continues to get suppressed by a broad trough out of Canada tracking eastward across the northern third of the country. MEFFER The forecast looks to continue to transition into a more typical summertime environment moving into the latter half of the week and weekend as broad but weaker ridging encompasses the southern half of the country. In addition to that we also look to have slightly cooler LL temps so the combination of all of these should keep highs in the lower to mid 90s. Now again it will still be somewhat miserable as the humidity is not going to go anywhere so until showers and thunderstorms develop it will be quite muggy with heat indices climbing into the lower to mid 100s each day.
922 AM EDT Wed Jul 15 2020 High pressure will build down from the north today then crest over the area tonight through Thursday.
Embedded within the stratus and fog is a nearly stationary and weak trough of low pressure from the surface up to the 925 mb and 850 mb levels, deepest to the south where recent cooling in the vertical and marine layer depth has generally been greatest. Over the weekend more inland 90s can be expected with a slight increase in 500 mb height ridging and less onshore winds.
Temperatures will be a little warmer today with highs in the low to mid 90s. By tonight, a weak cold front will drop south across southern Missouri. The cold front will edge closer to the Mid-South on Thursday with thunderstorms possible across the entire region. Temperatures will remain on the hot side with highs in the low to mid 90s.
Moisture will gradually return to the region tonight through Thursday with the approach of a mid-level inverted trough/low. Temperatures for Thursday are expected to drop another degree or so, but with the increased moisture from the trough, heat index values may spike again to heat advisory criteria for areas west I-37.
/issued 300 AM CDT Wed Jul 15 2020/ (Today and Tonight) The upper level ridge, centered over West Central Texas today, will weaken slightly today while the 850 mb thermal ridge weakens as well, with 850 mb temperatures decreasing to 26-30 deg C. This, in addition to the low level/surface flow switching to the southeast direction (resulting in higher dewpoints this afternoon in the 50s), will result in temperatures not quite as hot as the last few days. (Thursday through Wednesday) The high pressure ridge is expected to remain in place leaving hot and dry conditions across the region.
An Excessive Heat Warning remains in effect for the lower elevations of the Grand Canyon.
1023 AM EDT Wed Jul 15 2020 High pressure aloft will keep us above normal for temperatures into the end of the week.
Cooler than average temperatures will continue today with highs around 80 across the forecast area. Weak westerly flow around the high pressure area aloft over the southern plains will bring a disturbance off the southern Rockies and across the plains states this evening.
Hourly temps were running a few degrees warmer than forecast in some spots so adjusted those but still expect the same afternoon max temps previously issued. The upper ridge axis over our area will slowly shift off just to to our east by tonight. With high pressure continuing to dominate our weather, expect another hot and dry day with plenty of sunshine today, followed by a mostly clear night tonight. Temperatures are expected to climb into the low to mid 90s today in most valley areas, but again humidity levels should be low enough that heat index values will be close to the actual temperatures.
615 AM CDT Wed Jul 15 2020 Cold front and bulk of shower/thunderstorm activity now south and east of the immediate forecast area with even some clearing across northcentral WI into southeast MN. Precipitation and cloud cover pushes southeast of the area tonight as high pressure builds in. High pressure shifts southeast of the area Thursday which sets warm air advection up across our area. A weak cold front pushes southeast out of northern MN into northern WI Thursday night but it appears and showers/storms should stay north of our area.
Dry and slightly warmer weather will continue today.
609 AM EDT Wed Jul 15 2020 High pressure will build down from the north today then crest over the area tonight through Thursday.
The hot spell begins today with the upper high strengthening over the region. It appears as the upper high will win over, and hold the precip chances off area wide until Thursday afternoon, when diurnal help can cause showers and storms to develop. This will lower temps a degree or two, which is good since earlier model runs had this high a bit stronger placing warmer temps and heat index values over the mid state.
521 AM EDT Wed Jul 15 2020 High pressure will build down from the north today then crest over the area tonight through Thursday.
357 PM EDT Wed Jul 15 2020 A low pressure system and associated frontal boundary will approach the region Wednesday night and move through on Thursday.
1215 PM EDT Wed Jul 15 2020 High pressure will build down from the north today then crest over the area tonight through Thursday.
High pressure will then dominate the weather during the day on Thursday with mostly sunny skies expected.
Surface and upper ridge have slipped east of Middle Tennessee, so return southerly flow is underway, and that means generally light winds today and tonight with increasing temperatures and dew points.
And, while there are some lingering showers and bubbling thunderstorms in Central Missouri this afternoon in the troughs wake, that activity wont persist much longer before moving well east, leaving behind a really nice evening for eastern Kansas and northern Missouri in mid-July. This will allow ample opportunity for southerly winds of various flavors to bring warmer temperatures and higher humidity values to our section of the Plains States.
This will dissipate by mid morning with a pleasant day on tap for Thursday as highs top out in the low to mid 80s.
Other than a stray shower across the high terrain late this afternoon, a dry forecast is in store tonight as high pressure resides over the area. The ridge flattens tomorrow in response to a short wave that will move through the Ohio River Valley. With another day of temps in the low to mid 90s, the uptick in moisture will allow Heat Index values to climb into the upper 90s to near 100 for some central valley locations and lower 100s for southern valley locations. Surface ridging east of the Appalachians combined with this front to our northwest will result in continued southerly flow locally Thu night into Fri.
A cloud line over the Lower Keys is drifting over the Hawk Channel waters and within the last hour has begun to try and produce showers. Temperatures are in the lower 90s with dew points in the mid 70s.
1259 PM CDT Wed Jul 15 2020 Cold front and bulk of shower/thunderstorm activity now south and east of the immediate forecast area with even some clearing across northcentral WI into southeast MN. Precipitation and cloud cover pushes southeast of the area tonight as high pressure builds in. High pressure shifts southeast of the area Thursday which sets warm air advection up across our area. A weak cold front pushes southeast out of northern MN into northern WI Thursday night but it appears and showers/storms should stay north of our area.
Warming trend through this weekend as high pressure builds over the area with several days of widespread triple digit heat expected. Near normal high temperatures in the upper 90s across the San Joaquin Valley today as a weak upper low spinning off to our southwest along the coast persists. Warming trend will continue tomorrow as widespread triple digit heat returns as a ridge of high pressure drifts west towards California.
12z HREF members generally agreed in keeping most of this activity across nwrn SD, with preferred initiation near and north of the Black Hills in a zone of convergence associated with an inverted trof and theta-E ridge. Theta-E advection shifts southeastward to cntrl/s cntrl with the trof/wave and developing LLJ late this evening, with renewed elevated convection possible there late tonight into Thursday AM. Mid-upper ridging moves over the region on Thursday, which will help keep much of the area dry and toasty. However, approaching low-level trof will provide continued low-level theta-E advection, leading to considerable CAPE with limited capping over s cntrl SD tomorrow aftn/eve.
336 PM CDT Wed Jul 15 2020 Weak mid level ridging was ongoing near the CO/KS line with an uncapped surface layer from Dodge City westward this afternoon.
1128 AM MDT Wed Jul 15 2020 Longwave trough continues to progress across Canada, with WNW flow aloft in its wake. This will help bring weak ridging across the northern Rockies during the next 36 hours. Hot, dry, and breezy conditions look to close out the week, with weak ridging in place.
Daytime high temperatures will be trending slightly warmer going into the weekend.
Meanwhile the upper ridge builds from the Southern High Plains east into the Southeast US.
A weak surface circulation is between KHAE and KMBY in northeast Missouri roughly where a warm front is present.
Aside from that, today looks like a carbon copy of yesterday, though a degree or two cooler and a little slower on the clearing.
1216 PM EDT Wed Jul 15 2020 High pressure will build down from the north today then crest over the area tonight through Thursday.
Flow backs to more westerly tonight in advance of approaching front/trough that will swing through the region tomorrow.
This will also result in slightly warmer min temps. High pressure aloft will begin to weaken and shift northwest as a mid/upper level easterly wave approaches TX through the day Thursday. The high pressure will still provide a subsident airmass which will inhibit convective development, but can not rule out a rogue shower or two along the sea breeze on Thu. The max temps will be a couple of degrees cooler Thu.
Most locations have reached the lower 90s today but with dewpoints in the 70s, heat indices have exceeded 100 degrees. Tomorrow will be another day of hot and humid conditions as temperatures return to the 90s with broad ridging aloft.
Temperatures will continue to be warmer than normal the rest of the week, dropping to near normal this weekend.
More focus will be placed on coastal AL and MS on Thursday (as opposed to the FL panhandle and south-central Alabama this morning) since the upper low supporting this thunderstorm activity retrogrades southwest over the central Gulf and opens up into a weak inverted trough through that time. Temperatures continue to run a few degrees cooler than recent days, thanks in large part to the increase in shower and thunderstorm coverage.
The storms will diminish by midnight leaving low temperatures in the lower to mid 70s.
Look for another round of hot weather today, and the Excessive Heat Warning continues for the lower elevations of the Grand Canyon.
Somewhat cooler temperatures will fill in behind the front which is currently draped across southwest to central Oklahoma.
228 PM CDT Wed Jul 15 2020 A closed low was over central Manitoba this afternoon with an upper trough extending south across the Northern Plains into the Great Lakes. A disturbance embedded within the upper trough was indicated across central MT into western WY and is forecast to move east southeast into western Nebraska tonight. A warm front will setup across northern Nebraska in the afternoon, with a chance for thunderstorms to develop. A subtropical ridge will remain centered across the Southern U.
An increase in the activity is anticipated, with the highest PoPs north and east areas of the CWFA, tapering off to slight chances to no precip along the AR border and bordering NE OK.
Places with heavy smoke and haze will be several degrees cooler than those with full sunshine. Thus expect the marine layer to remain fairly deep with slight troughing aloft. Over the weekend more inland 90s can be expected with a slight increase in 500 mb height ridging and less onshore winds. SFO Bridge Approach.
136 PM EDT Wed Jul 15 2020 High pressure aloft will keep us above normal for temperatures into the end of the week.
1222 PM CDT Wed Jul 15 2020 (Today and tonight) Another day, another forecast of thunderstorms moving out of the High Plains. Additional thunderstorms are expected to develop in the Colorado/New Mexico High Plains again this afternoon with good upslope flow developing north of the cold front that will be moving south through Oklahoma and Texas this afternoon. As far as temperatures, the cold front will definitely be noticable with high temperatures 10 degrees lower today than yesterday across many areas.
a slight chance of thunderstorms develops by mid to late afternoon mainly across far eastern Colorado as another weather system rounds the top of an upper high centered over northern Texas. High temperatures return to normal levels for this time of year in the low 90s. Low temperatures look to be above normal in the low 60s to around 70.
Hourly temps were running a few degrees warmer than forecast in some spots so adjusted those but still expect the same afternoon max temps previously issued. High pressure flattens out tomorrow as a weak upper trough approaches from the northwest. The upper ridge axis over our area will slowly shift off just to to our east by tonight. With high pressure continuing to dominate our weather, expect another hot and dry day with plenty of sunshine today, followed by a mostly clear night tonight. Temperatures are expected to climb into the low to mid 90s today in most valley areas, but again humidity levels should be low enough that heat index values will be close to the actual temperatures.
1125 AM EDT Wed Jul 15 2020 High pressure will provide fair warm weather across the region through tonight.
High pressure will move in behind the front and promote gradually clearing skies tomorrow.
Upper level ridging will be main player throughout entire forecast period. Some days maybe a weak disturbance breaks down the upper level ridging pattern temporarily with more showers and storms than other days, but the pattern will be persistent. Surface and upper ridge have slipped east of Middle Tennessee, so return southerly flow is underway, and that means generally light winds today and tonight with increasing temperatures and dew points.
/issued 418 AM CDT Wed Jul 15 2020/ An upper level ridge centered over Texas continues to get suppressed by a broad trough out of Canada tracking eastward across the northern third of the country. MEFFER The forecast looks to continue to transition into a more typical summertime environment moving into the latter half of the week and weekend as broad but weaker ridging encompasses the southern half of the country. In addition to that we also look to have slightly cooler LL temps so the combination of all of these should keep highs in the lower to mid 90s. Now again it will still be somewhat miserable as the humidity is not going to go anywhere so until showers and thunderstorms develop it will be quite muggy with heat indices climbing into the lower to mid 100s each day.
215 PM EDT Wed Jul 15 2020 High pressure aloft will keep us above normal for temperatures into the end of the week.
253 PM EDT Wed Jul 15 2020 Much heralded return to more typical summer rainy season pattern over the state with increased showers and thunderstorms underway this afternoon as high pressure gradually shifts north across the peninsula with easterly flow setting up for the duration of the forecast period. Troughing aloft is finally exiting the eastern CONUS allowing high pressure to build across the central and eastern CONUS, favoring development of deep easterly flow over the state as surface ridging lifts north of the region.
Issued by National Weather Service Wakefield VA 404 PM EDT Wed Jul 15 2020 High pressure ridging in from the north today into tonight will gradually shift offshore through late week. Will maintain the 20 PoP focusing on areas just inland although models do suggest better ridging down the coast on Thursday which may prohibit any activity.
1110 AM EDT Wed Jul 15 2020 Upper level ridge will remain over the region through the weekend. An upper ridge overhead. Lows tonight in the low to mid 70s.
Scattered low-level cumulus has developed across the higher terrain over the past hour or two, but GOES-16 visible satellite imagery shows very little in the way of vertical development.
Increased ridging in response to a digging Midwest trough will support warm and dry weather tonight; however, with the development of as swly flow regime in the wake of the crossing ridge-axis, further advection warm, moist air should be anticipated.
With forcing/shear toward the weaker side of the spectrum, severe/organized storms not anticipated, although lower freezing levels across the region could lead to hail near an inch during initial updraft stages. Water vapor imagery indicates the next upper wave upstream across Montana and will likely lead to isolated/scattered thunderstorms later tonight as forcing interacts with increasing low/mid level moisture ahead of an associated trough. High pressure builds into the region Thursday/Thursday night with quiet weather and near normal temperatures anticipated as a result.
Most of the low level clouds from this morning have dissipated, but some mid to upper level clouds are still lingering around the northern and eastern parts of South Central Texas as of this writing. Afternoon temperatures are ranging from the lower 90s across the Hill Country to upper 90s/near 100 along the Rio Grande as of 2 PM. Temperatures will continue to go down a few degrees for the next several days as the high pressure in control weakens and pushes to the northeast part of Texas.
1239 PM CDT Wed Jul 15 2020 A cold front with a line of showers and thunderstorms is expected to move south into the Kansas City metropolitan area early this morning. The good news (besides the much needed rain) is that temperatures will be much cooler with highs only in the mid to upper 80s.
Thursday afternoon and evening, a weak cold front will move across northwest Montana, preceded by widely scattered showers and thunderstorms along the Canada border and over Glacier Park.
937 PM CDT Wed Jul 15 2020 Short wave trough still looks to bring some showers/storms later tonight to mainly northeast sd and west central mn.
Much warmer temperatures are expected Thursday as 700mb temperatures warm to 16-17C. Most locations will see a return to the low to mid 90s across the I-25 corridor, with cooler temperatures in the mountains. The trend through the first part of the weekend will be warmer and drier conditions with just a slight chance of late day storms, especially in the mountains and higher terrain areas. High pressure aloft which is now centered over the southern high plains will expand through the desert southwest.
A mid to upper level ridge has kept a lid on convection through the afternoon and evening, and activity over GA has remained to our south. Other than a stray shower across the high terrain late this afternoon, a dry forecast is in store tonight as high pressure resides over the area. The ridge flattens tomorrow in response to a short wave that will move through the Ohio River Valley. With another day of temps in the low to mid 90s, the uptick in moisture will allow Heat Index values to climb into the upper 90s to near 100 for some central valley locations and lower 100s for southern valley locations. Surface ridging east of the Appalachians combined with this front to our northwest will result in continued southerly flow locally Thu night into Fri.
950 PM CDT Wed Jul 15 2020 Weak cold front extends across southern Missouri and northern Oklahoma this evening. Precip chances also across nern OK late tonight as ongoing convection in the High Plains spreads eastward overnight.
1007 PM EDT Wed Jul 15 2020 High pressure ridging in from the north today into tonight will gradually shift offshore through late week. Upper ridging will lead to pred dry night. Overnight lows in the low-70s inland and upper- 70s along the coast. Inland areas will see a near carbon copy to the forecast on Wed with high pressure building into the area, limiting afternoon convection to mostly sea breeze development with overall coverage remaining low. Along the outer banks, a weak coastal trough attempts to become better-established over the gulf stream in the afternoon. Highs will be in the mid to upper 80s in the NE, and up to the low 90s in the southwest. Very zonal pattern aloft with upper ridging continues through much of the week.
645 PM CDT Wed Jul 15 2020 A closed low was over central Manitoba this afternoon with an upper trough extending south across the Northern Plains into the Great Lakes. A disturbance embedded within the upper trough was indicated across central MT into western WY and is forecast to move east southeast into western Nebraska tonight. A warm front will setup across northern Nebraska in the afternoon, with a chance for thunderstorms to develop. A subtropical ridge will remain centered across the Southern U.
High pressure drifts over the area Thursday, which should bring clearing skies, although some lingering isolated showers/thunderstorms could remain near I-70 southward. Highs should be in the mid 80s with the cold front pushed south of central IL.
Otherwise, light winds tonight, with morning lows in the low to mid 70s, except for the upper 70s along the southern Treasure Coast.
High pressure will expand west into the Great Basin heading into the upcoming weekend.
Dew point temperatures across the plains are lingering in the lower and mid 50s, so air temperatures will have a tough time cooling off too far overnight. Much warmer temperatures are expected Thursday as 700mb temperatures warm to 16-17C. Most locations will see a return to the low to mid 90s across the I-25 corridor, with cooler temperatures in the mountains. The trend through the first part of the weekend will be warmer and drier conditions with just a slight chance of late day storms, especially in the mountains and higher terrain areas. High pressure aloft which is now centered over the southern high plains will expand through the desert southwest.
Weak high pressure ridging will keep the area dry and mostly clear through Thursday.
However, a thermal trough bringing warmer temperatures to coastal Del Norte and Humboldt counties will begin to ease a bit.
336 PM MDT Wed Jul 15 2020 The longwave trough to our north will keep dry westerly flow over the area through Thursday. Concurrently, ridging to our south will aid in bringing warmer temperatures back today and tomorrow, with highs Thursday peaking into the mid to upper 90s east of the Divide.
Increased ridging in response to a digging Midwest trough will support warm and dry weather tonight; however, with the development of swly flow in the wake of the crossing ridge-axis, further advection of warm, moist air should be anticipated.
Weak mid level ridging was ongoing near the CO/KS line with an uncapped surface layer from Dodge City westward this afternoon.
Upper level ridging will be main player throughout entire forecast period. Some days maybe a weak disturbance breaks down the upper level ridging pattern temporarily with more showers and storms than other days, but the pattern will be persistent.
Temperatures here have climbed into the low to mid 80s thanks to the sunnier skies, though this is still cool compared to typical July high temperatures. Light northerly winds continue to advect slightly drier air into the region, so the heat index feels a good 15-20 degrees cooler compared to this time yesterday. Despite the sun, cooler than average 850 mb temperatures should keep highs in the upper 80s - one last relatively cool day before the heat really builds in. The longwave upper ridge over the southern US will gradually expand, with the low-level thermal ridge axis setting up over the central Plains.