Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
High pressure will build in and result in dry wx and near normal temperatures for mid November. High pressure will move east Friday night. A vigorous upper trof will take shape over the Upper Midwest Friday night and move east across the Great Lakes and into the NE U.
1202 AM CST THU NOV 19 2015 COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA RIGHT NOW. THIS LIKELY IS DUE TO INCREASED WINDS SPEEDS MIXING WARMER AIR JUST ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO THE SURFACE. MOST LOCATIONS LOW TEMPERATURES ARE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. /ISSUED 349 PM CST WED NOV 18 2015/ A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. A MUCH STRONGER FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS FRIDAY NIGHT AS A TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST.
1101 PM CST WED NOV 18 2015 Latest surface map indicating a secondary cold front over far western Iowa, expected to push across our area Thursday morning with a few clouds and gusty winds.
257 AM CST THU NOV 19 2015 MUCH COOLER THIS MORNING VERSUS YESTERDAY WITH CURRENT TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
1121 PM CST WED NOV 18 2015 NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY FOR A PERIOD EARLY THIS MORNING BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT. THE WINDS HAVE HELPED PUSH TEMPS UP WELL INTO THE 60S FOR MOST LOCATIONS AND WE/LL LIKELY SEE A FEW HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S IN THE SRN AREAS BEFORE TEMPS START COMING DOWN AROUND 5 PM OR SO. A COLD FRONT WILL ALSO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S DUE TO THE COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT.
246 AM CST THU NOV 19 2015 Two cold fronts will pass through our region over the next 48 to 60 hours.
EARLY MORNING IR SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SHOWING A DRAMATIC AIRMASS CHANGE ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH DRIER AIR ALOFT ENTERING THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS WELL TO THE NORTH OF FLORIDA AS IT SWINGS THROUGH THE EASTERN CONUS TODAY AND FRIDAY. ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 4 WHERE THE MOISTURE WILL REMAIN THE HIGHEST.
900 PM PST WED NOV 18 2015 HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND WEAK TO MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BRING FAIR WEATHER.
246 AM CST THU NOV 19 2015 Cold front finally moving through the CWA early this morning, switching winds to west-northwesterly today. So, looking for afternoon highs in the middle 40s up north, to the lower 50s in the southeast. The cold front will also usher in drier air into the region today. In the wake of the recent storm system, a broad upper trough covers most of the lower 48 states this morning.
/ISSUED 922 PM CST WED NOV 18 2015/ Weak cold front to move through the area overnight.
1129 PM CST WED NOV 18 2015 STRONG PACIFIC COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH IS OFF TO THE SW AND MODELS KEEPS WINDS AROUND 10 MPH. TOMORROW THE HIGH WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH WITH WINDS SLOWING TURNING MORE TO THE WEST DURING THE DAY. COOLER AIR IN PLACE WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO GET INTO THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS LIMITED TO THE LOW 30S NCTRL AND MID 30S SOUTH.
AND HELP CARVE OUT AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN U. WHILE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OCCURS OVER THE WESTERN U.
1143 PM EST WED NOV 18 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
229 AM CST THU NOV 19 2015 A cold front moving south thru W TX/E NM plains is being followed by a waning 5mb/3hr isallobaric high. There will be some wind to follow the front though at 15-20 mph and it will be noticeably cooler today, a good 10 degrees in most areas N of I-10. Nice wx Fri won't last long as the next and probably the strongest cold front thus far will be racing s thru the plains Fri night/Sat AM as a 130kt 3h jet moves thru the base of the trof to the n and as a 1040mb high comes over the front range of the Rocky Mtns. A 4mb/60nm gradient is impressive as is the 8-9mb/3hr isallobaric anticyclone depicted on the NAM12.
A WEAK COLD FRONT IS APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WHILE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SITS OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL DOWN TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS WITH LOWS THURSDAY MORNING IN THE LOW TO MID 40S. A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT BRINGING COLDER AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NEAR THE REGION ON FRIDAY WITH DRY WEATHER AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
HAVE DECIDE TO LET THE HIGH WIND WARNING CONTINUE. NO CHANGE TO THE HIGH WIND WARNING NEEDED AT THIS TIME.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL VEER TO EAST-SOUTHEAST LATER TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS LEE OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. WENT NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW COOLER NAM GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS.
1029 PM CST WED NOV 18 2015 BRIEF GUSTINESS EXPECTED FOF A FEW HOURS FOLLOWING PASSAGE OF WEAK COLD FRONT. WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CAUSE SURFACE WINDS TO VEER TO NORTHEAST AND INCREASE IN SPEED THIS EVENING. AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT WINDS WILL TURN OUT OF THE NORTH AGAIN.
309 AM CST THU NOV 19 2015 A weak cold front is in the process of moving through the Tulsa forecast area this morning and is currently located near a Rogers, Arkansas to Okemah, Oklahoma line.
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL TURN WINDS NORTHERLY THURSDAY NIGHT AND ANOTHER ROUND OF COLD AIR ADVECTION. THERE IS STILL A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE PLACEMENT OF THE HIGHEST QPF.
ISSUED BY CHARLESTON WV 155 AM EST THU NOV 19 2015 SECONDARY COLD FRONT OR TROF SWINGING ESE INTO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL KY NEAR FGX TO LEX TO FTK AT 18Z. WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST AND DIMINISHING WINDS 06Z TO 12Z FRIDAY.
353 AM CST THU NOV 19 2015 SURFACE COLD FRONT WAS JUST PASSING THROUGH EUFAULA AT THIS WRITING. THE CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT STARTED CLEARING ABOUT SUNSET WEST LAST NIGHT. A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT WILL ZIP INTO THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL BARELY BE NOTICEABLE.
1105 PM EST WED NOV 18 2015 MODERATE RAIN IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT BEFORE A COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA ON THURSDAY. IT WILL DRY OUT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEKEND. THAT IS ACTUALLY THE HIGHEST GUST WE HAVE SEEN ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FRIDAY WITH COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER.
ISSUED BY CHARLESTON WV 1240 AM EST THU NOV 19 2015 SECONDARY COLD FRONT OR TROF SWINGING EAST INTO NORTH CENTRAL KY NEAR SDF AND WESTERN OHIO AT 16Z.
The 10 pm EST regional surface analysis showed a weak cold front from the northern AL-GA border, through Pensacola, and into the Gulf of Mexico. The latest NWP consensus, fro MOS to the CAMs, indicate that the end of the rain will be a rather slow process as the upper level long wave trough translates slowly eastward. Since the cold front won't bring any cooler, drier air to our eastern region until this evening, thunderstorms remain possible there, along with occasionally heavy rain.
304 AM CST THU NOV 19 2015 MAIN CHALLENGE IS TIMING OF THE POLAR COLD FRONT LATE FRIDAY. AS THE UPPER TROF ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST ROTATES EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO EASTERN CANADA.
BILLINGS WRIGHT A SECONDARY UPPER WAVE WILL DIVE INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. A SECONDARY FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THURSDAY. HIGHS WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER ON THURSDAY. BY FRIDAY THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE WITH A MORE POTENT COLD FRONT.
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS, PRIMARILY OVER CENTRAL MT THIS EVENING, WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT WITH PARTIAL CLEARING OF THE LOWER TO MID LEVEL CLOUD-COVER.
308 AM CST THU NOV 19 2015 A 970 MB LOW OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO HAD A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD THROUGH ILLINOIS INTO WEST TEXAS. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER MISSISSIPPI EARLY THIS MORNING. THE WEAK COLD FRONT TO OUR NORTHWEST WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON.
A WELL-DEFINED COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING INTO EASTERN OHIO WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST TODAY WITH A BROAD AREA OF RAIN AHEAD OF THE FRONT. MODEL FORECASTS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT. THIS WOULD FAVOR THE EAST-CENTRAL RIDGES INTO THE SOUTHERN POCONOS/ENDLESS MTNS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FRIDAY WITH COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER.
A weak cold front will move across the area late tonight and early Thursday, shifting winds to the north and northeast. A weak cold front will move across the area overnight, shifting winds to the north and northeast for Thursday. /issued 352 PM CST WED NOV 18 2015/ (Tonight and Thursday) Northwest flow is in place aloft as an upper level low moves north through eastern MN/western WI this afternoon. However, expect temperatures to be just a few degrees warmer than last night, so will not issue another Frost Advisory tonight. Although a cold front will move into the area early tomorrow morning, temperatures will still be relatively mild with highs from the lower 60s north of I-20 to near 70s along and south of the I-10 corridor.
1233 AM EST THU NOV 19 2015 MODERATE RAIN IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT BEFORE A COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA ON THURSDAY. IT WILL DRY OUT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FRIDAY WITH COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER.
1134 PM CST WED NOV 18 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO ARKANSAS THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO ARKANSAS THROUGH THURSDAY. BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE EARLY MORNING.
243 AM CST THU NOV 19 2015 A cold front was in the process of moving southeast across the Missouri Ozarks during the predawn hours. Despite a day with weak cold air advection, high temperatures should still make it into the lower 50s over most areas with plenty of sunshine around. Areas of the eastern Ozarks may not warm out of the lower 50s.
AS COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE MID STATE ON THUR, THERE WILL PROBABLY BE SOME SCATTERED STRATOCU WITH BASES AROUND 5K FT.
LEADING TO A COLD FRONT PASSAGE WITH A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION.
The old upper system was moving quickly northeast into the Great Lakes today, but another wave, though much weaker, was rotating in behind over the High Plains. The cloud and moderate southwest winds should keep temps well above freezing during any precip for a liquid event. Clearing skies overnight should allow for lows near to just below freezing. Weak high pressure builds into the Central Plains Thursday with deep west to northwest flow resulting.
Westerly winds early tonight will slowly veer to the NW over the next several hours ahead of an approaching cold front.
125 AM EST THU NOV 19 2015 SHOWERS WILL END THIS MORNING WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. COLDER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THE LATTER HALF THE WEEKEND AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. CLOUDS AND SHOWER CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE LATER SAT/SAT NIGHT WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. BUT DRY EARLY WEEK WEATHER WITH A PROGRESSIVE UPR TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MODERATE TOWARD SEASONAL READINGS BY MIDWEEK AS HEIGHTS RISE/FLATTEN IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER WRN CONUS LOW. SHOWERS AND AND AREAS OF PRIMARILY MVFR DEGRADATION WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.
454 AM EST THU NOV 19 2015 ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. THE FRONT SHOULD JUST BE ACCOMPANIED BY AN INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S NORTHWEST AND LOWER 50S SOUTHEAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT PROVIDING MOSTLY EXCEPT SLIGHTLY WARMER NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN. THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE FAIR AND COLD WEATHER ACROSS OUR AREA FRIDAY.
WE WILL LET THE HIGH WIND WARNING EXPIRE IN THE WEST AT 6Z. GOOD PUSH OF COLD ADVECTION ENTERING FAR WESTERN FA ATTM BEHIND COLD FRONT. BEHIND COLD FRONT GOOD UNIDIRECTIONAL NW FLOW WILL AFFECT AREAS FROM THE VALLEY WEST TONIGHT.
118 AM EST THU NOV 19 2015 A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR AREA THURSDAY, BRINGING WINDY CONDITIONS WITH RAIN SHOWERS. COOLER AIR WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT FOR THE WEEKEND WITH RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. TGT GRADIENT WILL KEEP THE LOW CLDS AND WINDS UP OVRNGT. HIGHEST GUSTS WILL CONT TO BE OVER THE HIGHER RIDGES OF THE FINGER LAKES. AREA REMAINS IN A BROAD UPR TROF CNTRD OVER CNTRL LAKES.
CLOUD DEBRIS FROM ONGOING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES LOWER OVER FL WITH SOME AREAS ONLY REACHING THE LOW TO MID 80S.
NAM SHOWS A STRONG 500 MB RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES WITH TROUGHING ACROSS THE EAST HALF OF THE U. UPPER PATTERN DOES NOT CHANGE MUCH THROUGH 12Z TUE AS UPPER FLOW CONTINUES FROM THE NW AND AREA REMAINS IN THE UPPER TROUGH. GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND ANOTHER IN THE PACIFIC NW WITH A BROAD 500 MB RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U. THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES 12Z WED. TROUGHING STILL REMAINS OVERHEAD 12Z THU. ECMWF THEN SHOWS THE 500 MB RIDGE BUILDING BACK NORTHWARD INTO THE PLAINS 12Z FRI WITH SFC RIDGING REMAINING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THIS WHOLE FORECAST PERIOD. A LOW SPINNING OVER SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY WILL SWEEP A SERIES OF TROUGH ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO STREAM ACROSS THE STATE AS MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS SITUATED TO OUR EAST OVER NEW MEXICO AND TEXAS. LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS BEEN DEVELOPING THIS MORNING FROM CENTRAL INTO NORTHERN ARIZONA AHEAD OF AN INVERTED TROUGH FEATURE OVER SOUTHWEST ARIZONA. THIS TROUGH LIFTS NORTH TODAY ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE. WEAK LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO FUEL SHOWERS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THE TROUGH WILL ROTATE THROUGH NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND INTO SOUTHERN NEVADA TONIGHT.
/ISSUED 311 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015/ QUIET CONDITIONS CONTINUE TONIGHT ACROSS THE REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN.
1232 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015 LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ROTATING ON HUDSON BAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. AND DEW PTS WERE IN THE LOWER 60S TO MID 50S. THESE ELEVATED NOCTURNAL STORMS WILL GET AN ADDED BOOST BY THE LOW LEVEL JET.
An Unsettled Weather It is a fairly quiet morning across the Missouri Ozarks with mostly clear skies and temperatures rather pleasant in the lower to middle 60s. Temperatures will be in the lower 90s. The upper level ridge remains west of the region with the center near the west Texas area and the Missouri Ozarks region will be in a northwest flow.
255 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015 WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS THE UPPER RIDGE NOW CENTERED TO OUR WEST WITH A COUPLE OF CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION RIDING EAST-SOUTHEAST AROUND IT PRIMARILY AFFECTING THE PANHANDLE. TEMPERATURES HAVE COOLED INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S OUTSIDE OF URBAN AREAS BUT THERE IS A NOTICEABLE DIFFERENCE IN MOISTURE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION. MOISTURE WILL BE POOLED ALONG THE REMNANTS OF THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND THERE WILL BE SOME WEAK UPPER FORCING SPREADING SOUTH AROUND THE RIDGE. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM BY A FEW DEGREES AS THE RIDGE BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA.
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM AROUND THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING SHOW DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S F. WITH SEVERAL HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS STRUNG OUT ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE TRANS-PECOS REGION OF TEXAS. SOME ISSUES TO CONTEND WITH FOR TODAY'S FORECAST REVOLVE AROUND SLIGHTLY WARMER MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES.
439 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY. THE HIGH WILL GRADUALLY MOVE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. AS THE HIGH CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM OUR REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST.
617 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015 DRY THIS WEEKEND UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE.
THE SURFACE/LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL PUSH SLOWLY NORTHWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 96-102 DEGREE RANGE WITH THE COOLER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY AND THE WARMER TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO THE RIO GRANDE.
148 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015 A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MORNING. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL ONTARIO FORCING A COLD FRONT EAST ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT.
BUT MOSTLY DRY THIS WEEKEND UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE.
IMPACTS INCLUDE TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO UPPER 90S IN THE LOWER VALLEYS. MONSOON FLOW IS SLOWLY MOVING OUR WAY FROM THE GREAT BASIN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE.
WV imagery shows the upper ridge centered over the Four Corners region, courtesy of an amplifying trough over the eastern seaboard. At the sfc, obs show a weak boundary has moved into the Wrn Low Rolling Plains/Permian Basin, resulting in cooler easterly flow into the area. W/the upper ridge having moved to the NW, this has allowed a richer theta-e ridge axis to nudge into the eastern zones. Both the NAM and GFS continue migrating the theta-e ridge westward thru the weekend, and w/residual boundaries from earlier activity, current POPs look justified.
346 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015 A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY, FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE INFLUENCING THE MID ATLANTIC STATES ON SUNDAY.
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT BROAD UPPER RIDGING WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE WRN CONUS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND.
130 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015 A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DISSIPATE AS IT PUSHES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT AND WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS FROM THE LOWER 80S NORTH TO THE MID 80S SOUTH.
258 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA INTO SUNDAY EVENING.
COMPLEX WAS LIKELY GENERATED BY SHRTWAVE EJECTED OUT AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE WHICH DRIFTED INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF LAST NIGHT. DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO ARRIVE ON SUNDAY WITH THE RIDGE AXIS STILL DRIFTING NORTH, AND LOWER POPS FORECAST.
1125 PM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015 PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE PATTERN ACROSS WESTERN US THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. WITH WEAK FLOW AND A SECONDARY WEAK TROUGH AXIS/SURFACE CONVERGENT ZONE ALONG THE KS CO BORDER EXTENDING SOUTH INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KS. THE ENTIRE TRI STATE REGION WILL SEE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BROUGHT ABOUT BY A STRONG AMPLIFIED 500/700 MB RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY.
310 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015 DRY THIS WEEKEND UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE.
WEAK RIDGING WILL BRING DRY WEATHER FOR TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION THROUGH THIS PERIOD. HEIGHTS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS DUE TO AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE TROUGH.
149 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015 A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL KEEP THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST MIDLANDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. UPPER RIDGE OUT WEST WITH BROADEN TROUGH FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE EAST COAST. HAVE FORECAST SLIGHTLY COOLER OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT SHOWING A RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL US WITH A BROAD TROUGH ALONG THE EAST COAST.
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER MO THIS MORNING WILL DRIFT EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY REGION TODAY.
330 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015 A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL KEEP THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST MIDLANDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. UPPER RIDGE OUT WEST WITH BROAD TROUGH FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE EAST COAST. APPROACH OF WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY SUPPORTS LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE SOUTHEAST MIDLANDS. MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT SHOWING A RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL US WITH A BROAD TROUGH ALONG THE EAST COAST.
311 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015 QUIET CONDITIONS CONTINUE TONIGHT ACROSS THE REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN.
HIGH PRESSURE AND A FAIRLY DRY ATMOSPHERE WILL PROVIDE FOR VFR CONDITIONS THRU THE FCST PERIOD FOR BOTH KMSL AND KHSV.
113 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TONIGHT. THIS HIGH CENTER WILL STAY OVER MOST OF REGION THIS WEEKEND. LEANED TOWARDS THE COOLER MOS COOP GUIDANCE FOR LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 50 DEGREES IN THE COLDEST DEEPER VALLEYS TO THE LOWER 60S IN THE PIEDMONT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING LOWER HUMIDITY AGAIN SATURDAY. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND LIGHT DOWNSLOPE WIND FLOW WILL WARM HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY INTO THE UPPER 70S IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 90S.
PINE RIDGE. AND W-E ALONG A CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY THAT FORMED JUST NORTH OF THE CHEYENNE RIDGE IN NORTHERN LARAMIE COUNTY. MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW FED THIS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITH SBCAPES INITIALLY IN THE 1000-2000 J/KG RANGE ACROSS LARAMIE COUNTY AND ALONG THE PINE RIDGE. A FEW STRONGER PULSE STORMS REMAIN ALONG THE PINE RIDGE AT THIS HOUR. INDUCING PRESSURE FALLS IN THE HIGH COUNTRY AND REINSTATING MOIST EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW TO THE PLAINS BY THE AFTERNOON. THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION LOOKS TO BE OVER THE HIGHER PEAKS AND ALONG THE LARAMIE RANGE AND NEARBY EASTERN PLAINS.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL GIVE MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURES TONIGHT.
THE MOST RECENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS A WESTWARD MOVING TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) ACROSS THE BAHAMAS. THE WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE HAS BUILT INTO THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA. MIRRORING THE RETROGRADE OF THE LARGE ANTICYCLONE. BETWEEN THE TUTT AND THE SOUTHEASTERN FRINGES OF THE ANTICYCLONE.
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN FEATURES RIDGING TO THE EAST. UPPER RIDGE MOVES ON EAST AND OPENS THE DOOR FOR MONSOON MOISTURE TO PERSIST LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS A WELL DEFINED DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER NM/CO AND A DEEP FETCH OF MOISTURE RUNNING UP THE SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTAL AND INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT CONTINUES TO KEEP THE WEATHER VERY WARM BUT RELATIVELY QUIET. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND MT THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WHILE A THERMAL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT BASIN GRADUALLY DEEPENS.
549 AM CDT Sat Aug 1 2015 It is a fairly quiet morning across the Missouri Ozarks with mostly clear skies and temperatures rather pleasant in the lower to middle 60s. Temperatures will be in the lower 90s. The upper level ridge remains west of the region with the center near the west Texas area and the Missouri Ozarks region will be in a northwest flow.
449 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015 UPPER LAKES REMAINS ON EDGE OF TROUGH ALOFT CENTERED OVER HUDSON BAY.
WEAK 500MB LOW/INVERTED TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS NORTHEAST MEXICO INTO THE WESTERN GULF TODAY. THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WESTWARD ACROSS NORTHEAST MEXICO TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AND THIS WILL PROVIDE A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOWER PORTIONS OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY ON SUNDAY.
THE TREND FOR WEAK AND ISOLD CONVECTION WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW AS MOST OF THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE IS TRAPPED TO OUR SOUTH BENEATH A STRENGTHENING UPPER RIDGE. WILL SEE A MODEST RISE IN TEMPS ALOFT WITH THE STRENGTHENING UPPER HIGH. ROSE UPPER RIDGE AND MONSOON MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY.
641 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015 A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL KEEP THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST MIDLANDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. UPPER RIDGE OUT WEST WITH BROAD TROUGH FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE EAST COAST. APPROACH OF WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY SUPPORTS LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE SOUTHEAST MIDLANDS. MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT SHOWING A RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL US WITH A BROAD TROUGH ALONG THE EAST COAST.