Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
TEMPS A LITTLE WARMER THIS MORNING. PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER/MID 90S. LESS THAN 10% THE WX PATTERN OVER THE REGION WILL BE DOMINATED BY UPPER LOWS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF THIS WEEK. THE CURRENT UPPER LOW OFF THE FL PANHANDLE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NE TODAY. DML A LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER THE GULF WATERS THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK AS THE REGION REMAINS ON THE SOUTHWEST FLANK OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THIS WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DIGS INTO EAST TEXAS AND MOVES SLOWLY EAST.
THE TREND WILL BE FOR A BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES.
CONVECTION THAT DID OCCUR JUST OUTSIDE THE FORECAST AREA YESTERDAY SEEMED TO BE ANCHORED TO 500MB TROUGH. MON-TUE: ADVERTISED RIDGING STILL LOOKS GOOD THIS PERIOD. WARMER TEMPERATURES STILL APPEAR ON TRACK. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN INITIALIZATION GRIDS.
GFS AND ITS ASSOCIATED MOS ALSO CONTINUES ITS RECENT WARM BIAS SO STAYED CLOSER TO COOLER NAM MOS. THE 500 MB SYNOPTIC PATTERN FOR THE COMING WEEK IS CHARACTERIZED BY A LARGE WARM AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN U. AND LONGWAVE TROUGHING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND PACIFIC COAST. IF THE RIDGE HOLDS STRONG.
STILL SOME MIXED SIGNALS FOR REDEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON IN THE SOUTHEAST AND WILL LEAVE THE LOW AFTERNOON POPS IN THE SOUTHEAST. THE MOST WIDESPREAD AND POSSIBLY DENSE FOG WILL BE OVER FAR NORTH/NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA NEAREST LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS. INITIALIZATIONS CAME IN A FEW DEGREES COOLER MAINLY OVER NORTHERN AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA. GFS AND ECM HAVE TRENDED WEAKER WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND HAVE GENERALLY UNDERFORECAST STRENGTH/PERSISTENCE OF LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS JUST TO OUR EAST. THIS WILL YIELD SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS THROUGH THE WEEK MOST AREAS AND ALTHOUGH POPS ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR WEAK STORM ESPECIALLY FAR NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA CLOSER TO POSSIBLE HIGH PLAINS REMNANTS AND FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA CLOSER TO UPPER TROUGH.
THIS TROF WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE VICINITY FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. GOES SOUNDER IMAGERY STILL SHOWING THE HIGHER PW'S CONFINED OFFSHORE. OVERALL CHANCES SHOULD DIMINISH DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AS THE TROF AXIS MEANDERS EASTWARD. 47 NOT A LOT OF CHANGES WITH THE UPCOMING FCST AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST HELPS TO MAINTAIN MAINLY LIGHT (TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE) S/SE WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THRU MUCH OF THIS WEEK.
A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IS ALSO STILL ON TRACK FOR THIS EVENING. AN UPPER LOW AND TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST TODAY IT WILL BRING A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES ALONG AND WEST OF A ROUNDUP- BILLINGS- SHERIDAN LINE. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN YESTERDAY BUT STILL VERY WARM WITH 80S TO LOWER 90S COMMON.
PERHAPS A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER IN THE MIDDLE 80S. THE EXTENDED LOOKS WARM AND DRY AS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING DOMINATES THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A SLIGHT WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE APPEARS TO DEVELOP ACROSS ILLINOIS INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.
UPPER LOW STILL MIGRATING SLOWLY NORTH AND CONTINUING TO INCREASE MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA. CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 81 67 85 68 / 50 30 30 10 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 83 65 86 67 / 40 30 20 10 OAK RIDGE, TN 82 65 86 67 / 40 30 20 10 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 81 61 84 64 / 30 30 30 10.
THEREAFTER, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTHEAST EARLY THIS WEEK PROVIDING ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND WARM TEMPERATURES.
1027 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015 WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING SHOWER CHANCES TODAY ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION. SHOWER/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH THE APPROACH OF A SLOW MOVING UPPER TROUGH. PROXIMITY TO VORT LOBE PLUS TERRAIN EFFECTS MAY ALLOW FOR A BIT BETTER COVERAGE ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN RIDGES.
THE 12Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED AN INVERTED TROUGH (REMNANTS OF ERIKA) EXTENDING FROM THE LOWER KEYS TO SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS LOW LEVEL TROUGH LIKELY EXTENDED EVEN FARTHER NORTHWARD TO NEAR CAPE CANAVERAL SINCE THE BUOYS OFFSHORE WERE SHOWING BREEZY SOUTHEAST FLOW WHILE OUR NORTHERN LAND AREAS WERE LIGHT IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. EXPECT WITH THE HIGH MOISTURE IN PLACE AND MODEST HEATING THROUGH LATE MORNING THERE WILL BE A RATHER LARGE CLUSTER OF STORMS DEVELOPING. POOR TO HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AS REMNANT LOW PRESSURE TROUGH FROM ERIKA.
FAIR AND WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK.
1000 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015 WEAK LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST WILL DRIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST TODAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP THE COAST MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS INTO THE AREA THROUGH LATE WEEK.
712 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015 WEAK LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST WILL DRIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST TODAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP THE COAST MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS INTO THE AREA THROUGH LATE WEEK.
AS WELL AS A LOW PRESSURE CENTER OFF OF THE MS/AL GULF COAST. THE INFAMOUS UPPER LEVEL HIGH HAS MOVED OVER INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL INCREASINGLY BECOME SHEARED TODAY AND SOME OF THE BETTER MOISTURE WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE AREA.
THIS SURGE OF WARMER AND MOIST AIR WILL CONTINUE INTO THE DAY TODAY AS THE LOW TRACKS NORTH AND EAST OVER THE CAROLINAS. THIS IS OCCURRING UNDERNEATH A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND WILL BE FOR THE SHORT TERM. TROUGHING WILL BE INCREASINGLY ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE LOWER 48. WITH RIDGING TAKING HOLD ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION.
WE ARE STILL SEEING STRONGER WINDS OVER THE RIDGES THIS MORNING AND A LITTLE WAVE ACTION ALOFT. /ISSUED 253 AM PDT SUN AUG 30 2015/ HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THROUGH MID WEEK AS DRY WEATHER PREVAILS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. IN THE INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW IT WILL BE WARMER TODAY. HIGHS EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOWER 90S THROUGH OUR SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA ZONES. WITH LIGHTER WINDS THROUGH THE LOWER MO RIVER VALLEY INTO NORTHWESTERN IOWA. BECOMING WINDY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SD WHERE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP DUE TO STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE IN WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. SOME LINGERING MORNING CLOUDS AND WEAKER MIXING WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY COOLER IN THE LOWER 80S. THE AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS SLIDES EAST AND SQUASHES THE UPPER RIDGE ON MONDAY.
THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE EAST OF THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER TO SUPPORT ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS TODAY.
NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON.
A broad trough will remain over the region today. Temperatures are running a little cooler today down 5 to 10 degrees from yesterday.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THIS WEEK.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR THE REST OF THIS WEEK. AN UPPER TROUGH. WHILE THE UPPER TROUGH LINGERS. MODELS SUGGEST THE UPPER TROUGH WILL GET SHEARED OUT DURING THE LATER PERIODS.
A WEAK COLD FRONT REMAINS WELL NW OF THE AREA ACROSS OK. COMBINED WITH ADDITIONAL ASCENT FROM AN UPPER TROUGH OVER CNTRL TX. OUR SOUNDING LAST NIGHT HAD AN INVERSION JUST ABOVE 6KFT AND A SECOND JUST ABOVE THE FREEZING LEVEL. THE WATER VAPOR SHOWS TWO UPPER LOWS SPINNING OVER THE SOUTH WITH ONE OVER SE AL AND ONE OVER W TX. BOTH THE GFS AND EURO ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AS THE SHEAR AXIS AND WEAK UPPER LOW APPEAR TO BE IN NOW HURRY ACROSS THE MID SOUTH.
AN UPPER LOW TO OUR SOUTHEAST CONTINUES TO PUSH MOISTURE INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE WHILE A WEAK SURFACE FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW. WILL HANDLE THE LOWER POP'S AT BNA AND CKV WITH VCSH REMARKS ONLY, TEMPO SHOWERS AROUND MIDDAY AT CSV. A CLOSED-LOW TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE GULF COAST WILL PULL TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY. ESPECIALLY THOSE WEST OF I-65 WILL ONLY REACH THE LOW 80S. BUT WITH THE PASSAGE THE UPPER LOW. AS THE UPPER LOW PULLS AWAY FROM MIDDLE TN AND IS REPLACED BY WEAK RIDGING ALOFT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR THE REST OF THIS WEEK. FINALLY BY MID AFTERNOON REACH THE HIGH CHANCE POPS OF ORIGINAL FORECAST AND CARRY THOSE UNTIL EVENING. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 80S STILL LOOK ON TRACK SO NO ADJUSTMENTS MADE THERE. AN UPPER TROUGH. WHILE THE UPPER TROUGH LINGERS. MODELS SUGGEST THE UPPER TROUGH WILL GET SHEARED OUT DURING THE LATER PERIODS.
1246 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015 WEAK LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST WILL DRIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST TODAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP THE COAST MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS INTO THE AREA THROUGH LATE WEEK.
AS A BROAD LONGWAVE MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY DRIFTS WEST WITH NORTHERLY STEERING CURRENTS ALOFT OVER NORTH TEXAS. AS WELL AS A LOW PRESSURE CENTER OFF OF THE MS/AL GULF COAST. THE INFAMOUS UPPER LEVEL HIGH HAS MOVED OVER INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
Morning forecast update: The 700 mb cold front is just now beginning to cross east of the Cascade crest at 9:00 AM this morning. Low levels have moistened up considerably after yesterday's cold front passage. This will result in better surface heating that will combine with a relatively moist boundary layer with dew points in the low to mid 50s. We will see the possibility for thunderstorms increasing eastward through the afternoon as the upper level trough pushes across the region. Winds will generally be breezy with gusts to around 30 mph with today's cold front passage.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE MIDSOUTH WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD TODAY LEAVING A WEAKNESS IN THE UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS ACROSS THE REGION. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW ALONG THE ALABAMA COAST WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH CENTRAL AL THEN INTO NORTHERN GA BY EARLY THIS EVENING. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE LOCATED TO THE WEST OF THE MIDSOUTH WHILE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING INCREASES TO THE EAST. DID MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST AR AND THE MO BOOTHEEL CLOSER TO THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SINCE BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS INDICATE THIS POSSIBILITY.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL ALSO MOVE INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA MONDAY AFTERNOON BRINGING A THREAT FOR SHOWERS/STORMS TO OUR WESTERN ZONES. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE NORTHLAND TODAY AND PASS TO THE EAST TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. WE EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE MONDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS LATE IN THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FROM WEST TO EAST. ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE A LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN IN THE WEST WHILE A WEAK RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE EAST.
THE MOST WIDESPREAD AND POSSIBLY DENSE FOG WILL BE OVER FAR NORTH/NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA NEAREST LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS. INITIALIZATIONS CAME IN A FEW DEGREES COOLER MAINLY OVER NORTHERN AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA. GFS AND ECM HAVE TRENDED WEAKER WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND HAVE GENERALLY UNDERFORECAST STRENGTH/PERSISTENCE OF LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS JUST TO OUR EAST. THIS WILL YIELD SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS THROUGH THE WEEK MOST AREAS AND ALTHOUGH POPS ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR WEAK STORM ESPECIALLY FAR NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA CLOSER TO POSSIBLE HIGH PLAINS REMNANTS AND FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA CLOSER TO UPPER TROUGH.
1107 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015 A BROAD UPPER TROF REMAINS OVER THE MIDSOUTH THIS MORNING. THE TROF MAY PRODUCE ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AROUND PEAK HEATING. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE MIDSOUTH WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD TODAY LEAVING A WEAKNESS IN THE UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS ACROSS THE REGION. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW ALONG THE ALABAMA COAST WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH CENTRAL AL THEN INTO NORTHERN GA BY EARLY THIS EVENING. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE LOCATED TO THE WEST OF THE MIDSOUTH WHILE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING INCREASES TO THE EAST. DID MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST AR AND THE MO BOOTHEEL CLOSER TO THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SINCE BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS INDICATE THIS POSSIBILITY.
814 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015 WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING SHOWER CHANCES TODAY ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION. KEPT THE HIGHEST POPS THIS MORNING NEAR AND NORTH OF I 80 WHERE BEST UPPER DIVERGENCE IS LOCATED. PROXIMITY TO VORT LOBE PLUS TERRAIN EFFECTS MAY ALLOW FOR A BIT BETTER COVERAGE ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN RIDGES.
630 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015 CONSENSUS AMONGST THE MEDIUM RANGE MODEL INDICATE THAT THE UPPER LVL LONGWAVE TROF STRETCHING FROM ALASKA TO THE PACIFIC NW WILL BROADEN JUST A BIT WHEN IT MOVES INTO WRN CANADA LATER ON MID WEEK. A VERY BROAD UPPER RIDGE WILL ENCOMPASS THE CNTRL AND ERN CONUS.
MONDAY WILL BE WARMER THAN THE AVERAGE MID SUMMER DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S.
BETTER MIXING AND WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL LEAD TO HIGHS IN THE 90S TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD MONDAY NIGHT.
THE TREND WILL BE FOR A BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN YESTERDAY.
A BROAD LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE GREAT BASIN AND MOJAVE DESERT REGION WILL BRING DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH COOLER AND BREEZY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE COMING WEEK AND INTO THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND.
/ISSUED 338 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/ (Today and Tonight) An upper level low/weakness will remain across West Central Texas today and slowly drift south. Temperatures are forecast to range from the mid 90s across the Big Country, where less cloud cover is expected, to the low 90s across the Interstate 10 corridor.
1130 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015 WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING SHOWER CHANCES TODAY ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION. SHOWER/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH THE APPROACH OF A SLOW MOVING UPPER TROUGH. PROXIMITY TO VORT LOBE PLUS TERRAIN EFFECTS MAY ALLOW FOR A BIT BETTER COVERAGE ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN RIDGES.
A 12 DEGREE TEMP RISE FROM MOST 10 AM READINGS WILL YIELD AFTN HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S WHICH ONCE AGAIN APPEARS ON TRACK FOR TODAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT REMAINS WELL NW OF THE AREA ACROSS OK. COMBINED WITH ADDITIONAL ASCENT FROM AN UPPER TROUGH OVER CNTRL TX. OUR SOUNDING LAST NIGHT HAD AN INVERSION JUST ABOVE 6KFT AND A SECOND JUST ABOVE THE FREEZING LEVEL. THE WATER VAPOR SHOWS TWO UPPER LOWS SPINNING OVER THE SOUTH WITH ONE OVER SE AL AND ONE OVER W TX. BOTH THE GFS AND EURO ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AS THE SHEAR AXIS AND WEAK UPPER LOW APPEAR TO BE IN NOW HURRY ACROSS THE MID SOUTH.
A slowly increasing pressure gradient over the high plains should bring a steady decrease in fog and stratus as winds pick up, but stayed below most guidance for highs. Further increases in winds tonight should keep any redevelopment of fog in check with again somewhat warmer temps anticipated.
An upper level ridge along with downslope low level southwesterly winds will lead to hot temperatures with values well into the 90s.
ABUNDANT MOISTURE IS BEGINNING TO STREAM OVER THE CENTRAL PENINSULA THANKS TO THE LINGERING UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE PANHANDLE AND THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA OVER THE FL STRAITS. GIVEN THE HIGHLY SATURATED SOILS AND SEVERAL RIVERS AT OR NEAR FLOOD STAGE IT WILL NOT TAKE LONG FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING TO OCCUR NEAR STREAMS OR IN URBAN AREAS.
As temperatures warm this afternoon and the weak upper level low remains across the area, isolated embedded thunderstorms will continue to be possible, so thunder was added to the grids. /ISSUED 338 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/ (Today and Tonight) An upper level low/weakness will remain across West Central Texas today and slowly drift south. Temperatures are forecast to range from the mid 90s across the Big Country, where less cloud cover is expected, to the low 90s across the Interstate 10 corridor.
A LONG WAVE TROUGH IS NOW MOVING ONSHORE. THAT TROUGH WILL KICK INLAND TO THE EAST OF THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
MOISTURE WAS ALSO PRIMARILY CONFINED TO THE LOWEST 6 KFT WITH VERY DRY AIR ABOVE UP TO NEAR 20 KFT. AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS FORECAST AN UPPER TROUGH KICKS OUT TODAY AS ANOTHER ONE DEVELOPS OVER TEXAS BY LATE TOMORROW AND THAT IS EXPECTED TO CUT OFF OVER THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND AS WE START CLIMBING INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S FOR DAYTIME HIGHS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
1020 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015 HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. H5 TROF AXIS WL PROGRESS E OF AREA BY LT DAY.
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTH AL BEGINNING TO LIFT OUT TO THE NE. /ISSUED 412 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/ WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS A WELL-DEFINED UPPER LOW MOVING SLOWLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST THIS MORNING. 5 INCHES) AROUND THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE LOW AND THIS IS HELPING TO INCREASE CONVECTIVE RAINFALL POTENTIAL OVER NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI. MODELS FORECAST THE LOW TO MOVE NORTHEAST AND LIFT OUT AS AN UPSTREAM WAVE DIGS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE OZARK REGION. /EC/ GLOBAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SHOW A PATTERN CHANGE OVER THE CONUS FOR THE PERIOD WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER WESTERN CONUS AND STRONG SUBTROPICAL UPPER RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. OVER THE REGION A WEAK CUT OFF UPPER LOW WILL MEANDER ACROSS THE REGION UNDER THE MEAN UPPER RIDGE.
617 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015 FOR 12Z TAFS /ISSUED 306 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/ EARLY THIS MRNG THERE IS A WEAK UPPER LOW CIRCULATION OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE ALONG WITH AN UPPER TROF OVER PORTIONS OF THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS PCPN IS ASSOCIATED MORE WITH THE WEAK UPPER LOW. THE WEAK UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NE TODAY AS IT BEGINS TO OPEN UP BY TONIGHT. THE BEST CHC OF REACHING THE LOWER 80S WILL BE OVER NW AL WHERE THE CHC OF PCPN IS NOT THAT GREAT.
AND NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH HAS YET TO REACH NRN OREGON ZONES FROM THE WSW. TEMPS DROPPED TO THE LOWER TO MID 50S IN THE TREASURE VALLEY AND UPPER 40S AT MCCALL. THE NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL BRING MORE SHOWERS TO NRN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON. SO THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH THAT BRINGS PRECIP FROM THE WEST COAST THIS MORNING. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE DOWN 8-18 DEGREES TODAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH.
A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM AS A RELATIVELY WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS IS OVER THE COOLER WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN.
AN UPPER LOW WAS MOVING ACROSS AL TOWARD GA. SHORT RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 65 THROUGH THE DAY. AN UPPER LOW TO OUR SOUTHEAST CONTINUES TO PUSH MOISTURE INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE WHILE A WEAK SURFACE FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW. WILL HANDLE THE LOWER POPS AT BNA AND CKV WITH VCSH REMARKS ONLY, TEMPO SHOWERS AROUND MIDDAY AT CSV. A CLOSED-LOW TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE GULF COAST WILL PULL TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY. ESPECIALLY THOSE WEST OF I-65 WILL ONLY REACH THE LOW 80S. BUT WITH THE PASSAGE THE UPPER LOW. AS THE UPPER LOW PULLS AWAY FROM MIDDLE TN AND IS REPLACED BY WEAK RIDGING ALOFT.
AM CONCERNED THAT SOME FOG MAY FORM IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS RIDGE AXIS. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO THE GREAT LAKES WILL KEEP MOST OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR WEST TODAY.
SEEING SOME HIGH CLOUDS STREAKING EAST INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROF DIGGING INTO EAST TX. TEMPS A LITTLE WARMER THIS MORNING. PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER/MID 90S. LESS THAN 10% THE WX PATTERN OVER THE REGION WILL BE DOMINATED BY UPPER LOWS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF THIS WEEK. THE CURRENT UPPER LOW OFF THE FL PANHANDLE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NE TODAY. DML A LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER THE GULF WATERS THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK AS THE REGION REMAINS ON THE SOUTHWEST FLANK OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THIS WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DIGS INTO EAST TEXAS AND MOVES SLOWLY EAST.
729 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015 HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS JUST OFFSHORE TODAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH WHICH WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE THEN PASSES TO THE NORTH ACROSS EASTERN CANADA ON MONDAY.
MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL BE MINIMAL INTO THE PANHANDLE AND WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN CAPPED LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE UNITED STATES SUNDAY. THIS WILL DRIVE A WEAK COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA MONDAY. THE FRONT SHOULD STALL MONDAY EVENING AND BEGIN TO LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT MONDAY NIGHT.
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXITING THE REGION WILL LEAD TO CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT WITH PERHAPS A SHOWER OR TWO LINGERING IN THE CENTRAL OREGON CASCADES INTO THURSDAY.
With less cloud coverage in the afternoon, highs will be in the lower 80s today.
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC WILL ACT TO KEEP EAST TO NORTHEAST LOW-LEVEL FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
THE MAIN UPPER CIRCULATION WITHIN THE LONGWAVE TROF IS LOCATED OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA.
355 PM EDT WED MAY 6 2015 A DIFFUSE NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL OHIO WILL DRIFT NORTH OVERNIGHT AND DISSIPATE AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES.
MOSTLY SUNNY WITH HIGHS ONCE AGAIN IN THE LOW/MID 80S.
A COLD UPPER LOW WILL MOVE SOUTH FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND SETTLE INTO THE GREAT BASIN FOR THE WEEKEND MAINTAINING ACTIVE WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION. A DEEP UPPER LOW CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER OREGON CONTINUES TO CHURN SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK UPPER DIVERGENCE ON THE DOWNSTREAM SIDE OF THIS TROUGH EXISTS OVER NORTHWESTERN UTAH. CONTINUED SOUTHERLY TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW INTO NORCAL TONIGHT WILL FURTHER TIGHTEN UPSTREAM BAROCLINICITY ACROSS NE NEVADA AND SO. DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT WILL INCREASE TOMORROW ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO PROGRESS INTO CENTRAL CAL.
AHEAD OF WARM FRONT OVER IOWA. THEN ACTIVITY SHOULD WANE INTO THE LATE EVENING BEFORE THE BRUNT OF THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE AREA LATER TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW THE WARM FRONT TO SURGE NORTHWARD AND SHOULD LEAD TO WIDE-REACHING SHOWERS AND WEAK THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY MORNING. THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON THURSDAY AND THERE IS ALSO GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG GUIDANCE TO LIGHT UP A LOT OF CONVECTION ALONG THE COLD FRONT IN MN THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
UPPER RIDGING WILL KEEP DRY WEATHER AND WARM TEMPERATURES ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE THE DOMINANT FACTOR ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TOMORROW EVENING.
342 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2015 DIURNAL CU THE RULE ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S.
1057 AM PDT WED MAY 6 2015 A low pressure system will result in afternoon convection once again today.
6" PWS, CAPES 2000-3000 J/KG, -7 LI'S AND ANY WARMING UP TO THE LOW-MID 80S MIGHT TRIGGER SOME ADDITIONAL SCT DEVELOPMENT.
Other than that, above normal temps will continue with highs in the low to mid 80s today and Thurs, and lows in the mid 50s to lower 60s tonight.
FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED. THE UPPER LOW MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA TOMORROW AND INITIATES A WARMUP.
WITH A SLOWLY EJECTING UPPER TROF OUT ACROSS THE PLAINS WHILE A WEAK UPPER RIDGE REMAINS PARKED OVER MUCH OF THE SERN STATES. THIS SETUP CONTINUES TO FAVOR MORE DIURNAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE WRN HALF OF OUR REGION WHERE MORE LIFT IS OCCURRING DOWNSTREAM OF THE UPPER TROF IN ADDITION TO SOME WEAK UPPER DIVERGENCE. THE FORECAST DOES NOT LOOK TO BE CHANGING MUCH UNTIL LATE IN THE WEEKEND WITH A COLD FRONT DRIVING SOUTH INTO THE REGION.
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA CLOSER TO THE NEGATIVELY TILTED TROF. THE LOW LEVEL AND H85 FLOW BACKS AND TENDS TO FOCUS THE STRONGER STORMS TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND IN KANSAS. RIPPLES IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUE FOR THURSDAY WITH THE COLD FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.