Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Aloft the ridge that has suppressed convection is shifting east while an upper low moves slowly east across northern Mexico. The upper pattern over East Texas is becoming more divergent ahead of this upper low. Lesser rain chances can be expected over Louisiana, especially lower Acadiana, closer to the upper ridge. Thursday the upper low will cut off over South Texas while a weak frontal boundary moves into North LA/North TX. While the best lift with the upper low will remain to the east of the area, but rain chances will gradually increase as moisture remains high and lift increases.
931 AM EDT WED JUN 1 2016 Canadian high pressure will build into the region today, and will move east of the area Thursday.
633 AM CDT WED JUN 1 2016 Showers and occasional thunderstorms will be in the forecast for the foreseeable future due to a saturated airmass and persistent lift generated by an approaching upper level low. Additional thunderstorms are possible overnight tonight as the upper low nears, but coverage and timing will likely depend on what transpires this afternoon and evening. Water vapor satellite imagery this morning indicates that an upper level low was located southwest of Tucson, Arizona over the northern part of the Mexican state of Sonora.
931 AM EDT WED JUN 1 2016 12Z sounding this morning showed higher moisture levels and slightly cooler temperatures aloft compared to yesterday, with precipitable water values around 1. This will lead to another hot day with temperatures in the low to mid 90s away from the immediate coastline. SW winds will increase to near SCEC levels this weekend due to nocturnal surges ahead of approaching cold front to the NW.
1030 AM EDT WED JUN 1 2016 A low pressure system will begin to approach the area today. 500 mb 50 kt wind max rotating around this low results in a s/w axis which pivots thru Western Ohio late this aftn. This upper level support induces a convergent pre-frontal surface trof. Lean toward soln closer to GFS soln with scattered convection developing invof sfc trof by mid aftn over Eastern Indiana and Western Ohio and then weakening as it moves east into a less favorable environment. Went just slightly warmer than guidance with temperatures starting out pretty warm already this morning. A cold front will begin to approach the region tonight and move through on Thursday.
Upper level ridging will strengthen today, but will not shut-off convection this afternoon.
610 AM CDT WED JUN 1 2016 A weak cold front will move into the area today accompanied by some shower and thunderstorm activity.
A slow moving cold front will approach the forecast area over the weekend. Temperatures have been rapidly warming this morning with CAE already up to 87 degrees and max temperatures expected in the lower 90s to around 90 this afternoon. The models display a weak trough in or just south of the forecast area on Thursday. The trough extended southwestward from the post tropical system Bonnie which is forecast to remain near the North Carolina coast through Thursday. allowing the upper ridge to strengthen slightly across the southeastern states.
While a lot of perimeter areas only saw a little rain or no rain at all, a much larger area, centered over the lower Arkansas River Valley, saw appreciable rainfall amounts.
Through Thursday, the highest rainfall totals are expected to be across southern Oklahoma and adjacent north Texas, in association with the greatest isentropic ascent and the closer proximity to the closed upper-level low and greater precipitable waters.
A cold front will usher in breezy conditions by this evening and into Thursday. A slight increase in winds today then increasing further for tonight and Thursday as a stronger cold front presses through the Pac NW. /sb 12Z TAFS: Middle to high cloud will impact the TAF sites over the next 24 hours as as mainly dry cold front pushes in.
A weak surface cold front will produce light winds across West Central Texas today from the north.
These areas will likely continue through sunrise, however winds from the west wind push of cooler and drier air will begin to erode the western edge prior to that time and shrink overall coverage. Temperatures will be cooler with less humid conditions as Canadian airmass filters across the state.
The low level ridge which has been located to the west of Alabama the past few days will shift the eastward and the flow will become southwesterly. The models have been showing a zone of deeper moisture shifting northeast across Alabama today, and the higher concentration of convection should be across the northern half of central Alabama today.
High pressure will strengthen across the region through Thursday bringing a warming trend. This high will remain in place through the upcoming weekend maintaining very warm and dry conditions. The first day of meteorological summer will bring warm weather and sunny skies to Utah and southwest Wyoming, as a high pressure ridge builds over the Great Basin. Some weak cumulus development is expected over the higher terrain this afternoon, but the airmass should be too dry to produce precipitation.
A slow moving cold front will approach the forecast area over the weekend. The models display a weak trough in or just south of the forecast area on Thursday. The trough extended southwestward from the post tropical system Bonnie which is forecast to remain near the North Carolina coast through Thursday. allowing the upper ridge to strengthen slightly across the southeastern states.
Convection continues to slowly and steadily push east early this morning, progressing through storm outflow rather than the synoptic cold front, which is still well west of the cwa. Tonight, with clear skies, and light northwest winds, lows should drop to the lower 50s north to upper 50s south. The quiet and dry conditions will continue Thursday evening as high pressure moves into the Great Lakes.
The area continues to be dominated by a relaxed high pressure ridge reaching across central FL. Current forecasts have isolated storms early in the afternoon becoming scattered later and with the highest chances inland. Atlantic high pressure ridges across the waters.
Surface and upper level low is situated over far northwest Minnesota with wrap around moisture extending back into central ND. Cyclonic flow transitions to broad ridging this afternoon west, and into central Thursday as mid to upper level height rises commence.
1136 AM EDT WED JUN 1 2016 A cold front will increase shower and thunderstorm chances for tonight and Thursday. The forecast for tonight remains on track with gradual pop escalation as that trough draws closer.
focusing the higher pops up north near the boundary and lower pops in the south where there is weaker forcing. The surface boundary will eventually sag farther south as a slow moving upper low ejects out of the southwest. The upper low is forecast to stall across TX late this week and possibly drift even farther south which should shift the shear axis out of the area.
A strong upper low situated along the US/Canadian border near Grand Forks, ND will move off to the east northeast today into the southern portion of Quebec province. At the same time, an upper trough will move slowly east through the southern Plains. The High Plains from eastern Colorado across Kansas will be under west northwesterly cyclonic flow aloft with the northern extent of the southern Plains trough extending into the region. The upper level trough/low pressure systems will continue to move east through the end of the week.
1030 AM EDT WED JUN 1 2016 High pressure over eastern Canada will provide one more fair and mainly dry day for the Commonwealth today.
651 AM CDT WED JUN 1 2016 Upper level low continues to move across the Northern Plains with trough axis extending into eastern Nebraska early this morning. At the surface, a weak cold front was quickly dropping through the CWA providing a brief increase in northwest winds behind it. High pressure will build overhead today and remain over the area through early Thursday when return flow begins to set up.
702 AM EDT WED JUN 1 2016 Warm front located from northern Illinois to southern Ohio will move northward toward northern Ohio today. This boundary is expected to move across the area this evening with a cold front following closely behind for the overnight hours. The cold front may not move east of the Ohio/Pennsylvania border until late thursday afternoon.
1129 AM EDT WED JUN 1 2016 High pressure builds in from the north and shifts offshore tonight. A warm front will approach by Thursday morning increasing the chance of showers.
That being said will need to keep an eye on a weak cold front today that will likely define where new afternoon/evening convection will form. Yesterday's cold front has weakened considerably over the past 24 hours and appears to lie across the far southeastern counties. A second cold front extends from northeast KS southwestward across far southeast NE.
/issued 440 AM CDT WED JUN 1 2016/ Drier air works its way north over the northern Gulf and north- central Gulf coast through tonight around a weakly organized low level ridge stretching west over the northern Gulf coast. /16 An upper low over the Desert Southwest this morning is expected to move into Texas Thursday, pushing a cold front toward the Mid-South and Lower Mississippi River Valleys.
1124 AM EDT WED JUN 1 2016 A cold front will increase shower and thunderstorm chances for tonight and Thursday. Dry and warm weather can be expected today under slowly- eroding high pressure.
Air mass over the higher terrain in Mexico expected to become more unstable. Water vapor imagery shows the upper low southwest of the New Mexico bootheel with a short wave trough from just east of the Texas Big Bend to southern Chihuahua with enhancement in clouds over Coahuila. This short wave trough will move northeast into the Hill Country/Brush Country this evening as the upper low moves southeast into Chihuahua.
A cold front will bring chances for showers and thunderstorms to central Indiana today into tonight.
144 AM EST Mon Nov 28 2016 High pressure will move off to the east on Monday. Periods of rain with several waves of low pressure Monday night and mid week. Cooler high pressure to end the week.
SW KS is sitting in the large dryslot of an impressive cyclone centered over South Dakota this morning. Raised high temperatures this afternoon several degrees across the board, into the lower 60s, as downslope components offset weak cold advection, and dry ground aids in the warming.
1023 PM MST Sun Nov 27 2016 A cold front continues to traverse the region this afternoon. High temperatures Monday will be cooler with highs generally in the upper 40s to lower 50s. another batch of moisture/clouds moves down toward the interstate from the north during the night and completely covers the area from northwest to southeast during the day as upper axis attached to upper low centered over Minnesota moves through.
The mixing layer is not very deep (2,000ft), but with 35-40mph of wind just above the surface, higher southerly winds 20-25mph and gusts of 30-35mph are likely until the cold front pushes through late Monday morning. Ahead of the cold front over central Kansas, a line of showers has developed and will continue to advect to the east into the MO/KS keeping likely PoPs in the grids through 03-04Z.
211 AM EST Mon Nov 28 2016 Today will be dry and seasonable, with high pressure still in control of our weather.
Showers will exit from SW to NE around midnight as that upper trough gets through.
Ramsey and Towner counties (some scattered warmer temps around 34 F), so the northern portion of the advisory has the best risk for some freezing rain with some light ice accumulations on untreated surfaces. The highest snowfall impacts continue to be in far western Benson and Towner counties, with western Benson seeing 3 to 5 inches by midnight very possible, and rapidly increasing amounts by the time you get to Rugby. The low begins to eject out into the arrowhead on Tuesday morning, pulling the deformation zone further into the western counties of our CWA and pulling snow further to the east on Tuesday. Decreasing overnight lows and colder air being pulled into the back of the low will cause a gradual changeover from rain to snow overnight Tuesday.
While the bulk of the energy will remain over New Mexico, substantial moisture and orographic lift will keep snow falling over the higher terrain. The rest of the highlights look good and will continue through their respective expiration times.
The large upper level trough is advancing east out of the Rockies and into the Plains early this morning. Energetic mid and upper level flow in the base of the trough is moving through northern half of the state this morning.
430 AM EST Mon Nov 28 2016 Currently - High pressure sliding eastward off the Mid Atlantic Coast is responsible for gentle to moderate northeast to east breezes across the forecast area. Temperatures have settled into the lower 70s with dew points in the upper 60s. An associated ridge axis will pivot northwards into the Florida Peninsula heading into mid week, bringing a tighter pressure gradient across the Keys. Deep layered ridging will remain in place. Winds will relax significantly through the back half of the week as the high migrates further off into the Atlantic and a mid latitude trough pushes off the Atlantic seaboard, leaving the Keys in a fairly flat pressure gradient.
126 AM EST Mon Nov 28 2016 A narrow north to south ridge of high pressure will slide east across Pennsylvania tonight and Monday, accompanied by dry weather with light wind. A frontal system will develop over the plains states and push a cold front through PA on Tuesday. It will be mild and wet in the middle of the week, with cooler air and lake effect snow showers returning for the end of the week. The high cloud shield will also help to level off temps overnight with mins ranging from the mid 20s to around 30F. A sprinkle may occur over the nrn mtns late in the day as moisture associated with warm advection from the next system spills over the migratory upper ridge.
Surface analysis still has the low pressure system near the Nebraska/Kansas/Colorado borders. Temperatures will warm back into the lower 50s during the afternoon. Have kept the forecast dry through the period, but each of the waves brings an increase in cloud cover and a weak cold front. Temperatures will be cooler Tuesday and there will be a few more clouds around.
Temperatures were in the middle or upper 30s north and west of the Fox Valley, and in the lower to middle 40s from the Fox Valley and lakeshore region. Increasing southeast winds will usher in warmer air, thus temperatures should remain steady or slowly rise.
1115 PM CST Sun Nov 27 2016 Upper trough axis continues to move toward the forecast area with strongest push of large scale motion for ascent occurring this afternoon over our forecast area just ahead of the trough axis. Latest surface analysis shows center of the low over south central Nebraska and this continues to quickly move northeast. Near-term CAM's support this and do indicate some heavier QPF values spreading across northeast Nebraska through 03Z where strongest large scale lift will reside as the upper trough continues into the eastern Dakotas.
Band of showers developing within low level theta ridge under weakly diffluent flow aloft to move eastward into the forecast area during the late afternoon/early evening. Anticipate bulk of rain to be exiting into the Ohio Valley by mid afternoon with some patchy light rain continuing until the upper trough passes. Upper low will continue to wobble around the northern plains into midweek leaving the region within a dry and seasonably cool southwest flow.
A surface cyclone over eastern Colorado will rapidly intensify as an upper level system ejects north-northeastward into the northern plains today. Mid level cooling and daytime heating will result in steep lapse rates so that strong winds should mix to the surface behind the cold front that has been modified by downslope. Cooler air will persist in the wake of the system for a few days as deep upper level troughing remains across the central and northern plains.
112 AM EST Mon Nov 28 2016 Widespread rain due to a deep low pressure center moving from the northern Rockies into eastern South Dakota will overspread the region late tonight from west to east.
However, I believe we are near the low the for the night now, and temperatures should hold steady or even rise for the remainder of the overnight hours. Severe weather threat will increase significantly by Monday afternoon and evening as the large and intense sfc and upper level cyclone moves over the midwest.
Much of the week will feature considerable cloudiness and occasional light rain and/or snow showers as an upper low slowly moves east across Minnesota and Wisconsin early to mid week.
A high pressure system will influence the region with dry weather on Tuesday. This is way ahead of some of the higher resolution QFP progs from today. Precipitation should end Monday afternoon as an area of high pressure influences northern California to bring dry weather ahead of another quick weather making system that will pass through the forecast area for additional chances for rain and mountain snow.
Scattered thunderstorms will develop later tonight as an upper wave and cold front approach. VFR conditions will prevail once the cold front passes and drier conditions ensue as w-sw winds develop behind the boundary. Potent wave rotating around the southern base of the larger Northern Plains cyclone is currently passing across Arizona and will begin to influence weather across the Southern Plains late tonight through Monday morning.
Temperatures have stayed in the lower to middle 40s which was the concern yesterday ahead of the system due to thick low clouds. Rainy and breezy with nearly steady temperatures in the lower to middle 40s all night. The cold front associated with the system tonight and tomorrow will slowly sag through the area on Tuesday.
The highest amounts will come across the mountains of southwest Montana and the higher mountain passes. A strong and deep upper level trough will continue to develop over western and central portions of the USA tonight and Monday. This feature then moves slowly eastward Monday night and Tuesday as short wave ridging builds along the West Coast. Despite being outside of the storm system's main impact area, the higher mountain ranges of Southwest Montana will likely receive several inches of snow.
231 AM MST Mon Nov 28 2016 The last wave to affect the area is now exiting the region though favorable northwest flow will allow orographics to keep snowfall in the picture over the higher terrain. Cross sections show the highest omega values through and above the dendritic growth region which should make for some efficient snow making.
427 AM EST Mon Nov 28 2016 Presently, we have a mid/upper level ridge across the eastern CONUS with a stacked low sitting over the northern plains. A cold front is advancing east across the plains. With south-southeast flow off the high terrain, temperatures should still recover nicely despite the cloud cover into the upper 50s to lower 60s. Tonight, the cold front will work east across the area with widespread rain accompanying the front. For system number one, a large stacked low pressure system will still be centered over the north central CONUS Tuesday evening, beginning to accelerate eastward.
144 AM MST Mon Nov 28 2016 A cold front continues to traverse the region this afternoon. High temperatures Monday will be cooler with highs generally in the upper 40s to lower 50s. Models differ on the evolution of the upper trough that develops to our west and where does the upper low at the bottom of this trough go. High clouds will continue to move through the region, wrapping around the upper low which is lifting into the northern plains.
Enough instability has developed just ahead of the cold front to support scattered surface based thunderstorm development. Wrap around light snow is possible on the southwestern periphery of the precipitation area, with the higher pops from 40 to 50 percent near the South dakota border. The highest likely pops near 60 percent are placed across the Pine Ridge into northwest Cherry county.
An upper level low combined with a couple of fronts will keep rain chances in the area at times from tonight into mid week. Surface analysis shows strong Low pressure over the Northern Plains states. Trended slightly warmer than expected wetbulbs.
255 AM EST Mon Nov 28 2016 Areas of low pressure will return periodic rain chances to the forecast tonight through mid week. The low level jet should also result in gusty winds at the surface, though model soundings show the strongest winds remaining capped above the surface.
945 PM PST Sun Nov 27 2016 A cooler weather system will bring light snow accumulations to the mountains and lowlands overnight into Monday morning.
1135 PM CST Sun Nov 27 2016 The initial heavier rain band is lifting north of the Interstate 94 corridor now and is arriving in the highway 2 corridor. Low pressure centered near the Colorado/Nebraska border is on track to deepen and slowly propagate northwards towards the Red River Valley overnight. Temperatures along and east of the valley will stay above freezing tonight and warm into the low to mid 40s on Monday. Above freezing air at the sfc to 850 mb will remain over most areas through Monday night then start to cool slowly Tuesday. Thus upper level low by Monday night will lose most of its moisture source as drier air cuts it off the south but do expect areas of light rain and drizzle.
1145 PM CST Sun Nov 27 2016 Low pressure continues to approach from the Plains. Low pressure is approaching with a very tight pressure gradient and a cold front. Expect the cold front to move through central Arkansas during mid day Monday. High pressure currently centered over the state will begin to shift to the east allowing moisture levels to increase across the area. Currently dewpoints are in the 30's and 40's, however as high pressure. The increase in moisture will set the stage for showers and thunderstorms to move through the state ahead of an approaching cold front.
Vigorous upper level trough was providing the region with widespread rain and snow, with snow levels averaging 3000 feet. A mix of rain and snow was reported at the Boise airport but with no accumulation as temperatures were above freezing. A cold front situated in Oregon just west of Baker City and Burns will move rapidly through SE Oregon and SW Idaho this morning. The bulk of the showers will occur in the higher elevations. Additional snow accumulations of 1-3 inches are expected in the higher elevations. Northerly flow aloft will slide into the region, situated between the departing upper trough and an upper ridge off the west coast. Snow showers will linger in the higher elevations tonight, but with little additional accumulation. The upper ridge off the coast will move into the PacNW for drier conditions and lighter winds on Tuesday.
400 AM EST Mon Nov 28 2016 High pressure will move offshore today.
Will likely have to end the Winter Weather Advisory early across some of the lower elevations of Carbon county since consistent snowfall has struggled to develop outside of the mountains. and this latest band is not impacting the lower elevations too much. Heaviest and most widespread snow to occur tonight as that secondary low pressure system tracks across Carbon County.
The upper level trough associated with the system will keep meandering around the Great Plains for the beginning of the work week. A cold front Tuesday will keep a bit of a chill in the air with northerly winds, but the front looks to have a dry passage. The interesting time frame will be the end of the work week into the weekend as a trough digs far into the Baja Peninsula and cuts off from the main flow. The current thinking would be for the southeast area to start off with some rain and then as moisture continues surging northward as the low comes closer, and the air gets cooler overnight, the rain would transition to snow.