Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
/issued 253 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2020/ A cold front made it's way through our area early this morning, resulting in northeasterly winds that will keep our high temps in the 70's today and tomorrow. The High Wind Warning for the Guadalupe Mountains has also been allowed to expire even though elevated gap winds will continue at Guadalupe Pass though remaining just below High Wind Warning criteria. Cooler NE flow will hold our low temps tonight in the 40's and Friday night in the 50's where they should remain for the coming week. An upper level trough will dive out of the high plains towards the midwest Saturday tightening the sfc pressure gradient allowing for breezy southwesterly to westerly downsloping winds over the area.
300 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2020 A shallow cold front pushed through the area yesterday evening with southwesterly flow aloft. Combined with increasing cold air advection, expect a brisk day with high temperatures only peaking in the low 60s, and some areas may struggle to get out of the 50s. As this much drier air mass progresses into the region, dew points will likely fall into the low 30s, although 00z deterministic and ensemble guidance suggest that dew points in the mid 20s are possible. Should the drier air reach the area, then expect overnight low temperatures to drop even lower, potentially near freezing. While near-freezing temperatures are not the most likely scenario at this point, those with agricultural interests should closely monitor the forecast over the next 24 hours.
/issued Issued by National Weather Service Little Rock AR/ A cold front moved through the forecast area today, with cooler, drier air behind. High pressure and fair weather will be expected Friday and Saturday, with highs in the 60s to lower 70s and lows warming into the 40s to lower 50s for the entire CWA by Saturday morning.
312 AM EDT Fri Oct 16 2020 A cold front will push through the forecast area today with isolated to scattered showers. An upper-level trough will dig into the eastern portions of the CONUS today. The associated cold front will move across the Appalachians and through the forecast area during the near term. The high temperature forecast will be a bit tricky since the front will push through in the afternoon. For northern portions of the forecast area, temperatures may be warmer this morning than during the afternoon. It will be significantly cooler tonight than the previous night.
Tonight Through Saturday A large upper trough continues to push south through the Plains this afternoon. With high pressure in place, dry conditions will continue for Friday and Saturday.
A dry cold front was moving through northern Georgia early this morning. Light winds this morning will become northwesterly and increase to 10-15 mph behind the cold front. Winds will remain elevated overnight, shifting to the northeast after midnight as high pressure builds over the Appalachians. Cooler conditions are expected tonight, especially across interior southeast Georgia where temperatures in the low to mid 50s are forecast.
The cold front is currently moving through South Texas. However, high pressure building in will keep most of us dry.
ENHANCE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS EAST COAST BEACHES THROUGH EARLY Short Term (Friday - Saturday): Models continue to depict a mid level trough migrating eastward across the SE CONUS, with an associated sfc frontal boundary reaching the Florida panhandle today. The air mass over SoFlo will gradually destabilize with cooler temps aloft (around -8C) ahead of the aforementioned front/trough complex. For Saturday, the forecast scenario hasn't changed much from inherited philosophy, with global models pushing the cold front into the Lake region by the early morning hours.
1006 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2020 Leading edge of cold front situated from roughly Columbus- Huntsville-Lufkin will continue to make gradual southward progress and off the coast later tonight.
Additionally this high wind danger will move into parts of the Laramie Range creating wind gust up to 60 MPH for portions of Albany and Laramie county.
Clouds have increased last several hours as cold front moving onto the plateau and about to move into the central valley. A band of scattered showers in the wake of a cold front will affect all terminals early this morning bringing periods of MVFR cigs and vis. VFR will then persist through tonight as high pressure builds into the region. Garuckas Chattanooga Airport, TN 64 41 66 47 71 / 10 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 60 39 64 42 70 / 20 0 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 61 38 64 42 69 / 20 0 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 57 33 61 39 67 / 30 0 0 0 0 TN.
1035 AM EDT Fri Oct 16 2020 A cold front will move through the region this morning.
While strongest winds should remain confined to the higher peaks and lee slopes north of our CWA overnight, HRRR does hint at some stronger (30-40 kt) gusts spreading into the upper Arkansas Valley toward Sat morning, especially from Salida north to Buena Vista. Increasing west to northwest flow aloft ahead of an approaching cold front means another warm, dry and windy day across the forecast area. Latest model runs still are pointing to the cold front surging south across the Palmer Divide some time between 3 and 6 pm, with wind gusts along and behind the front in the 30 to 35 mph range. Expect high temps on Sat in the 60s to around 70F for the high valleys, and mid 70s to lower 80s for the plains.
For today, a weak cold front passes through the area, bringing breezy west to northwest winds with gusts of 15-25 mph. The strong southerly flow will pull warmer air into the area with highs in the upper 60s to mid 70s.
The questions turn to the north-south placement of the generally west to east oriented QPF field in guidance as well as the high-end ceiling. The major difference is the high end precipitation potential within this band depicted by CAMs (well displayed by the HREF) where the mesoscale banding potential is producing pockets of even greater QPF. Depending on the strength of the cyclone and associated warm air advection, the switch to snow may take longer than expected into the overnight hours, possibly impacting the accumulation forecast. Some areas may see some blowing snow in the morning and early afternoon as temperatures may struggle to rise above freezing in the north.
Slightly cooler temperatures will setup this afternoon across the Arizona high country, most notable in the Four Corners region. These slightly cooler temperatures will not last long though as another weak high pressure builds back across the Southwest this weekend. Temperatures are expected to increase around 5 degrees between today and Saturday as a result of that returning area of high pressure.
Coastal showers this morning mainly from VRB south to SUA, and this will be the area with the highest rain and lightning storm coverage this afternoon. Boating conditions remain favorable through this evening, then a cold front pushes across the local waters this weekend.
434 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2020 A cold front has made its way through the ArkLaMiss region this morning. In its wake, cooler air is moving into the region. Temperature this morning are in the mid to upper 50s and lower 60s for most locations, expect the Delta which has dropped into the lower 50s. Overnight lows will be cool in the lower to mid 40s, though some upper 30s in the northeast won't be out of the question.
The cold front is making steady progress across the forecast area this morning and is delineated by the by a narrow band of clouds and a more northerly wind shift. At 14 UTC, the front stretched from near the Walton/Bay County line northeast to near Marianna and Bainbridge to Tifton. An upper level trough axis will pass over the region today with zonal flow in its wake tonight. A drier and cooler air mass will arrive behind the cold front. A cold front will push across the area today, bringing breezy winds and elevated seas in its wake.
/issued 351 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2020/ The synoptic pattern doesn't look to change much over the next several days as the Rex Block off the west coast will persist with a broad trough prevailing over the central/eastern CONUS.
But, based on upstream temps this morning and the placement of the ridge directly over the area tonight, radiational cooling will be quite good. There will be a lot of variability between the ridges and valleys, so not every spot will have frost. The chilly air will be short-lived as the center of high pressure moves east of our area tomorrow morning.
Cooler air from eastern New Mexico has pushed into the Rio Grande Valley this morning. This cooler air will continue to move to the west today.
A shallow cold front pushed through the area yesterday evening with southwesterly flow aloft. Combined with increasing cold air advection, expect a brisk day with high temperatures only peaking in the low 60s, and some areas may struggle to get out of the 50s. As this much drier air mass progresses into the region, dew points will likely fall into the low 30s, although 00z deterministic and ensemble guidance suggest that dew points in the mid 20s are possible. Should the drier air reach the area, then expect overnight low temperatures to drop even lower, potentially near freezing. While near-freezing temperatures are not the most likely scenario at this point, those with agricultural interests should closely monitor the forecast over the next 24 hours.
516 AM MDT Fri Oct 16 2020 Pattern change in store this weekend as a massive ridge will build into the eastern Pac forcing a large pocket of arctic air south into the CONUS. This will allow for warmer temps, perhaps the warmest day in the next 7 days or more. However, the track of this system has shifted south some given the location of the upper jet and sfc front, with slightly cooler highs that previous model runs have suggested. Strong cold front will advect through the region Sat morning, with strong convergence supporting a decent chance for rain and snow with some accums expected Sat night across the SW 2/3 of the FA.
419 AM MDT Fri Oct 16 2020 The northwesterly flow will continue at the mid-levels as the downstream trough moves east across the Midwest. At the 700mb level, the flow is a bit more westerly, which will help to advect dry and warmer air to the area today. The cold front will approach northern areas Friday night, and some precipitation is likely to occur in the Bighorns and Absarokas before midnight. Areas to the north can expect cooler temperatures with batches of rain or snow showers.
Issued by National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 436 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2020 A surface cold front has moved through the area and into the offshore waters over the past few hours, with land based stations now reporting a shift to north/northeasterly winds in the wake of its passage.
621 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2020 Updated for 12Z aviation discussion 12Z TAF discussion: A cold front has pushed through the region, which shifted winds out of the north. /28/ A cold front has made its way through the ArkLaMiss region this morning. In its wake, cooler air is moving into the region. Temperature this morning are in the mid to upper 50s and lower 60s for most locations, expect the Delta which has dropped into the lower 50s. Overnight lows will be cool in the lower to mid 40s, though some upper 30s in the northeast won't be out of the question.
Today Through Saturday Night High pressure will build over Arkansas from the Plains today. High pressure will depart to the southeast on Saturday. Moisture levels will come up Saturday night as a new cold front approaches from the northwest.
As of 08z this morning, a broad trough was present over the central CONUS with northwest flow prevalent over the Central Plains. Winds have remained light overnight with clear skies allowing temperatures to fall into the low to mid 30s except for in north-central Kansas where mid-level clouds have kept temperatures in the upper 30s. Highs will be a few degrees warmer than yesterday, but WAA remains limited. The tight pressure gradient along with the development of a strong 55-65 kts LLJ will keep winds strong overnight ahead of an approaching cold front. Winds weaken slightly Saturday afternoon, but southwest winds will remain strong ahead of the cold front with gusts of 30-35 mph possible. Highs will reach the mid 70s on Saturday before the cold front moves through the area late Saturday, ushering in cooler temperatures to begin the week.
600 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2020 (Today and tonight) Early this morning, water vapor satellite imagery shows a long-wave upper trough over the Northern U. resulting in northwest flow aloft on the southern periphery of the trough over West Central Texas. At the surface, cool high pressure over the Central Plains is expanding into our region and post-frontal northeast surface winds continue to bring cooler air, with temperatures as of 1 am this morning in the mid 50s to mid 60s, which is generally 15-20 degrees cooler than at this time 24 hours ago. We will see cooler than normal high temperatures today, with highs in the low to mid 70s and mostly sunny skies. Tonight, the surface and 850 mb ridge will move east into the Mississippi Valley, resulting in south flow returning.
642 AM EDT Fri Oct 16 2020 Following a stretch of mild autumn days, expect a much cooler and damp end to the week with frost/freeze conditions possible in some areas tonight into Saturday morning.
/issued 201 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2020/ The surface anticyclone was being re-enforced this morning as a mid-level jet max moves thru the dry nw flow aloft. Yet another mid-level speed max moves thru the nw flow pushing a cold front to near the TX/OK Panhandles by 06Z/Sun and into the PB around or just before 18Z Sun. The front seems to lose its push sw as the parent anticyclone remains well off the ne.
526 AM MDT Fri Oct 16 2020 The northwesterly flow will continue at the mid-levels as the downstream trough moves east across the Midwest. At the 700mb level, the flow is a bit more westerly, which will help to advect dry and warmer air to the area today. The cold front will approach northern areas Friday night, and some precipitation is likely to occur in the Bighorns and Absarokas before midnight. Areas to the north can expect cooler temperatures with batches of rain or snow showers.
520 AM MDT Fri Oct 16 2020 Temperatures are running cooler than 24 hours ago and we have hit at least the freezing mark in some of the warned valleys. This keeps the polar jet stream and cooler air just off to our north.
A cold front is still on track to push eastward into the region later tonight into Saturday. The cold front appears to stall along the I-90 corridor from Lookout pass to MacDonald pass.
728 AM EDT Fri Oct 16 2020 Following a stretch of mild autumn days, expect a much cooler and damp end to the week with frost/freeze conditions possible in some areas tonight into Saturday morning.
The drier air to the southeast is depicted well in guidance at 700 mb but is not progged to make much more northward progress today as the mid-level ridging to our east retreats. The favored areas for more rain coverage will continue to be north and west, and some boosting of rain chances was conducted over the Lower/western Straits Light east to southeast winds will back to northeast late this afternoon, with a slight increase over the offshore Gulf waters and Dry Tortugas late this afternoon.
526 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2020 The cold front has pushed though the CWA and entering the coastal waters. The cold front has finally pushed through the CWA and cooler temperatures with it. Tonight the winds will veer to a more easterly to southeaster tomorrow making the highs just back into the low 80s and lows tomorrow night around 70.
353 AM MDT Fri Oct 16 2020 Temperatures are running cooler than 24 hours ago and we have hit at least the freezing mark in some of the warned valleys. This keeps the polar jet stream and cooler air just off to our north.
Strong high pressure will dominate our weather pattern, with some flavor of ridge near the west coast and a secondary high consolidation near Baja. A broad trough anchored from Canada downstream with a dry northwesterly flow for our area. Above average heights on the eastern flank of the ridge will continue to support temperatures 7 to 10 degrees above average most days.
1236 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2020 (Today and tonight) Early this morning, water vapor satellite imagery shows a long-wave upper trough over the Northern U. resulting in northwest flow aloft on the southern periphery of the trough over West Central Texas. At the surface, cool high pressure over the Central Plains is expanding into our region and post-frontal northeast surface winds continue to bring cooler air, with temperatures as of 1 am this morning in the mid 50s to mid 60s, which is generally 15-20 degrees cooler than at this time 24 hours ago. We will see cooler than normal high temperatures today, with highs in the low to mid 70s and mostly sunny skies. Tonight, the surface and 850 mb ridge will move east into the Mississippi Valley, resulting in south flow returning.
Winds will generally be light out of the west to southwest with breezier winds over the higher terrain of Yavapai, and southern Coconino, Navajo and Apache Counties. Slightly cooler temperatures will setup this afternoon across the Arizona high country, most notable in the Four Corners region. These slightly cooler temperatures will not last long though as another weak high pressure builds back across the Southwest this weekend. Temperatures are expected to increase around 5 degrees between today and Saturday as a result of that returning area of high pressure.
Wind may actually back off a little near sunset as the low-level lapse rate slacks off and a warm front approaches from the southwest. However, wind speeds will likely pick back up again in advance of an approaching trough from the northwest, and we could actually get some pretty good south/southwest wind gusts 20-30 mph probably common (maybe some 35 mph wind gusts in our southeast), as a very strong low-level jet develops, with 50-50kts expected a 850 mb for much of the area tonight. The timing of the cold front on Saturday appears to be on a fast track to keep temperatures from getting as warm as earlier forecasts indicated.
332 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2020 Surface cold front well out into the Gulf of Mexico this afternoon, but cold air has really only pushed to near and north of the Interstate 10/12 corridor. High pressure currently centered near Tulsa will shift eastward over the weekend, feeding cool air into the area through about midday Saturday before surface winds regain somewhat of an onshore component.
230 PM MDT Fri Oct 16 2020 Fast northwest flow continues between a upper trough over the MS Valley and upper ridge over the eastern Pacific.
Breezy south to southwest winds are expected Saturday as the pressure gradient increases due to a lee cyclone developing. Saturday will be warmer with temperatures reaching near or above average (mid 70s to mid 80s highs).
/Updated at 1156 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2020/ Fall conditions will persist over the next 24 hours or so as the early morning cold front has now cleared the area. Cloud cover, winds, and a few sprinkles have made it feel that much cooler when compared to yesterday. We are expecting to clear overnight with calming winds, so many spots will be squarely in the 30s by morning, with the metro areas remaining in the lower 40s.
204 PM EDT Fri Oct 16 2020 Following a stretch of mild autumn days, expect a much cooler and damp end to the week with frost/freeze conditions possible in some areas tonight into Saturday morning.
Multiple concerns through the short term, ranging from frost/freeze headlines, to gusty winds/enhanced fire weather potential, and finally a cold front accompanied by a much needed healthy rain. Despite plenty of sunshine today, highs will only manage to reach into the lower 60s. The most likely area for frost will probably be across our eastern counties, and possibly the higher terrain of the Ozark Foothills. This will lead to enhanced fire weather concerns due to the low RH's in place.
BW Chattanooga Airport, TN 41 66 46 71 55 / 0 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 39 64 42 70 51 / 0 0 0 0 10 Oak Ridge, TN 38 63 41 69 52 / 0 0 0 0 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 34 61 38 67 47 / 0 0 0 0 0 NC.
245 PM EDT Fri Oct 16 2020 Clear and cold tonight under high pressure. Skies will continue to clear during the remainder of the day as surface level high pressure continues to build into the area. Temperatures will range from upper 20s to mid 30s tonight, with the lowest temperatures expected to occur in the mountains, lowland valleys, and in sheltered areas. With a large portion of the CWA at or below freezing, have issued a Freeze Warning for the entire CWA for late tonight into Saturday morning. Saturday looks to be a beautiful day with dry conditions persisting as high pressure remains in control. Dry weather expected in the short term period with high pressure in control.
As colder air filters in behind a cold front tonight, this will lead to a swath of accumulating snow across portions of northern Valley, Daniels, and Sheridan Counties. As the cold front moves south through the area tonight, northerly winds will ramp up behind the front with gusts of 30 to 40 mph possible for a couple hour period. High pressure will bring dry and colder weather to most of the region on Saturday and Saturday Night. Light snow will linger in parts of the southwest which will be on the northeast fringes of the moisture from the cold front which will be over southern and SW Montana.
1158 AM MDT Fri Oct 16 2020 The northwesterly flow will continue at the mid-levels as the downstream trough moves east across the Midwest. At the 700mb level, the flow is a bit more westerly, which will help to advect dry and warmer air to the area today. The cold front will approach northern areas Friday night, and some precipitation is likely to occur in the Bighorns and Absarokas before midnight. Areas to the north can expect cooler temperatures with batches of rain or snow showers.
The surface cold front has pushed through the area this morning and is now well offshore. Dewpoints have dropped into the low 50s and are expected to continue to fall into the 40s by this afternoon or evening. A few clouds will linger through the morning until the subsidence from the building mid-level ridge really cranks in this afternoon and evening and any lingering moisture gets advected out of the area. With an overall dry airmass and low level cold advection tonight, we will probably see our coldest temperatures of the fall with some locations north of highway 84 dropping into the low 40s (If you're lucky/unlucky you might see a 39 mix in).
207 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2020 Thanks to yesterday's cold front passage, today's temperatures were in the cooler mid 50s to lower 60s under sunny skies. Dry high pressure will continue to move into Middle Tennessee tonight with clear skies. Some parts of the Upper Cumberland could touch freezing by daybreak, but any freeze will be very brief, so we do not think a freeze warning is needed.
1133 AM MDT Fri Oct 16 2020 Temperatures are running cooler than 24 hours ago and we have hit at least the freezing mark in some of the warned valleys. This keeps the polar jet stream and cooler air just off to our north.
309 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2020 Its a spectacular day outside, take my word for it and go out there! Current temperatures are in the the lower 60s with clear skies. The big story tonight is the low temperatures. Temperatures tonight will plummet into the lower 40s with parts of west Tennessee and northern Mississippi getting down the low to mid 30s. Highs will be in the lower 60s and skies will be mostly clear.
207 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2020 A cool, dry air mass will settle into the region this evening and overnight as high pressure continues to build into the Tennessee Valley from the northwest.
Strong warm air advection, sufficient sunshine, and dry air will allow for high temperatures to reach the low to even mid 70s tomorrow afternoon.