Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
A FEW SPOTS ARE EXPERIENCING A COMBINATION OF FREEZING DRIZZLE/VERY LIGHT SNOW. AS FORCING INCREASES AHEAD OF THE LOW TODAY. GUIDANCE QPF HINT AT AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE OF FREEZING DRIZZLE.
HAND ANALYSIS OF THE 08Z MSL DATA AND THREE-HOUR PRESSURE FALLS INDICATE A DEVELOPING CYCLONE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TO SOUTHEAST COLORADO. ALSO ADDED IN MENTION OF PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE MAINLY NEAR AND EAST OF A LINE FROM NORTH PLATTE THROUGH BASSETT INTO THIS AFTERNOON. THE CYCLONE MAKES ITS WAY INTO CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA WITH WRAPAROUND ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE SANDHILLS.
THE 500 MB CLOSED LOW OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL PUSH EAST AND NORTHEAST THROUGH WED. THE PROGRESS OF THE 500 MB LOW WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE RGV LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY WED MORNING. THE HIGH TEMP TOMORROW WILL LIKELY OCCUR BEFORE OR JUST AROUND SUNRISE WITH TEMPS HOLDING STEADY OF SLOWLY FALLING LATER IN THE DAY AS THE CAA BUILDS IN OVER THE REGION.
CLOUDS WILL THICKEN TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT ARRIVES FROM THE PLAINS.
357 PM CST TUE DEC 15 2015 A RESERVOIR OF VERY MOIST AIR OVER THE NRN/CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO WILL BE DRAWN QUICKLY NORTHWARD AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE ARKLAMISS REGION WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
Used ensemble MOS for hourly temperatures tonight ahead of the cold front.
A cold front moving east through the area today will shift winds to the west gusting to 20 to 25 knots at the northern terminals this morning and through the afternoon hours. /issued 340 AM CST TUE DEC 15 2015/ (Today and Tonight) An upper low now centered over eastern Colorado will lift northeast across the Central Plains through tonight. Surface winds will become gusty this afternoon in the wake of the cold front as it moves east but winds will subside quickly overnight. Highs today under mostly sunny skies will range from the lower 60s over the western CWA to the upper 60s over the eastern CWA, reflecting the eastern progression of the cold front. Wednesday morning lows will generally be in the lower to mid 30s given the good radiational cooling conditions of clear skies and light winds.
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS NEAR MCCALL AND SOUTH OF TWIN FALLS WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES FURTHER AWAY TO OUR EAST. AN UPPER RIDGE JUST NORTH OF THE AREA WILL SLIDE SOUTH FOR MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING. CLOUDINESS ACROSS MOST OF SE OREGON/SW IDAHO AS OF 3 AM IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE FROM THE NW AS THE UPPER LOW AND UPSLOPE FLOW PULL AWAY FROM THE AREA. COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE ID PANHANDLE LATE TODAY WILL SPREAD A LOW CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS TO THE MOUNTAINS NORTH OF A LINE FROM BURNS TO CAMBRIDGE AND MCCALL TO BANNER SUMMIT AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE FRONTAL TROUGH WILL SHIFT INTO SE ID WEDNESDAY LEAVING HARNEY/MALHEUR COUNTIES CLOUDY BUT MOSTLY PRECIP- FREE.
1120 AM EST TUE DEC 15 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD.
BRIEF RIDGING OVER THE AREA WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ARE PROGGED TO ARRIVE ON WEDNESDAY.
243 PM CST TUE DEC 15 2015 Weak high pressure is gradually weakending as the southeast low level flow begins to strengthen around a deepening low center over the west central plains. Weather system to the west and northwest of the CWA will continue to move northeast into the western Great Lakes region Wednesday with a trailing cold front sweeping through the area.
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS CENTERED OVER WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON BUT THERE WAS STILL QUITE A BIT OF CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AT 20Z.
1237 PM EST TUE DEC 15 2015 A COLD FRONT EXITS THE MID ATLANTIC COAST EARLY THIS MORNING.
1235 PM EST TUE DEC 15 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD.
COLD FRONT IS SLOWLY MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE EDWARDS PLATEAU AND VERY NEARLY IMPACTING THE KDRT TERMINAL AT TAF ISSUANCE. UNTIL THE COLD FRONT PASSES WHICH SHOULD BE AT OR JUST BEFORE MIDNIGHT AS ITS PROJECTED TO SLOW ITS EASTWARD MOVEMENT. WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS A PACIFIC COLD FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. THE COLD FRONT DOES SLOW IT/S EASTWARD PROGRESS TONIGHT AND WITH INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT EXPECTED. DRY WEATHER AND COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE IN STORE FOR ALL AREAS ON WEDNESDAY AS NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE.
1213 PM CST TUE DEC 15 2015 ALL EYES ARE ON THE CLOSED LOW OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKY MOUNTAINS THAT WILL RACE NORTHEAST AND AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH WARMER AIR OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL MN AND WEST CENTRAL WI WILL LIKELY INHIBIT A FULL TRANSITION TO SNOW DURING THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD. ALTHOUGH SFC TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO FALL THRU THE LOW TO MID 30S. AND ROAD TEMPS ABV FREEZING. TIME WILL TELL! SOME PATCHY FOG AND LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE REMAINS OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL MN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM EASTERLY TO SOUTHERLY EARLY TOMORROW MORNING AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
REGION AT 2 AM UNDER A THICK MANTLE OF LOW CLOUDS WITH SURFACE RIDGING OVER CENTRAL IOWA.
251 PM EST TUE DEC 15 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE.
317 PM CST TUE DEC 15 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL HELP KEEP CONDITIONS CLEAR ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA OVERNIGHT.
The above average temperatures will be replaced with more seasonable temperatures Wednesday as a cold front and parent upper level push through. Behind the frontal boundary, clouds should begin receding, but again, temperatures will be noticeably cooler as brisk northerly winds advect a polar air mass into the region on Wednesday.
/ISSUED 623 AM EST TUE DEC 15 2015/ COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CWA AND HIGH PRESSURE HAS MOVED INTO THE REGION. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL PUSH EASTWARD THROUGH WEDNESDAY. GUIDED BY LONGWAVE TROUGH BEHIND IT.
WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE CWA. WITH ANOTHER APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF TO THE SOUTHWEST ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES. WINDS TO SHIFT AROUND TO THE EAST SOUTHEAST TODAY AS THE LOW APPROACHES THE AREA AND THE HIGH SHIFTS AWAY.
At the surface, gusty westerly winds in the wake of a Pacific cold front will persist until sunset, with gusts as high as 30 kts possible.
311 PM CST TUE DEC 15 2015 Currently, 20z hour WV and Visible satellite imagery shows a mid- upper level low swirling over northwest KS, southwest NE and northeast CO vicinity. Have lowered temps into the upper 20s over east central KS and lower 30s over the rest of northeastern KS due to a west/northwest wind developing as the low pressure system previously mentioned lifts to the northeast through eastern Nebraska dragging a cold front through as well.
219 PM CST TUE DEC 15 2015 COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA.
THOUGH WINDS TONIGHT WILL BE EVEN LIGHTER IN THE LOWEST 5 KM. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE WELL ADVERTISED COLD FRONT AT THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
1139 AM CST TUE DEC 15 2015 LOOKING LIKE A WIDESPREAD LIGHT PRECIPITATION SYSTEM COMING IN OVERNIGHT WITH SOME FREEZING RAIN CHANCES IN THE FAR NORTH. SURFACE PRESSURES HAVE BEEN FALLING IN THAT SAME AREA AS LOW PRESSURE WILL EJECT THROUGH MN. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR I-70 WILL BE WORKED NORTH WITH A MOIST SURGE SOUTHEAST OF THE CYCLONE TRACK. ESPECIALLY IN THE LOW-LEVELS. BELIEVE MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING. BEFORE WARM ADVECTION KICKS TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING /AFTER 09Z/.
WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE ALONG IT. WITH THE BEST CHANCES OF SEEING TSRA ALONG AND SE OF THE LOW AND FROPA. PRECIP WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR FILTERS BEHIND THE FRONT. DML LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT CROSSING TEXAS. WINDS WILL BRIEFLY SUBSIDE AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE FORMS ALONG THE FRONT WEDNESDAY.
200 PM EST TUE DEC 15 2015 DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
304 PM CST TUE DEC 15 2015 A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WAS EXTENDING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO WESTERN IOWA/SOUTHERN MINNESOTA BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL AGAIN RESULT IN A COLD FRONT MOVING WELL OUT AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE AREA TO ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER DURING THIS SAME TIME PERIOD. THE MODELS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR INVOLVING INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG AND NEAR THE COLD FRONT.
1125 AM EST TUE DEC 15 2015 THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW BRIEF RIDGING OVER THE AREA WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ARE PROGGED TO ARRIVE ON WEDNESDAY.
THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE BEFORE THE MAIN SNOW BAND ARRIVES FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. IN ADDITION TO ANY FREEZING DRIZZLE THAT FALLS PRECEDING THE SNOW.
328 PM CST TUE DEC 15 2015 DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE MISSOURI VALLEY INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATE WEDNESDAY. A WEAK EXTENSION OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL STAY OVERHEAD THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WE ALLOWED FOR A SLIGHT MODIFICATION FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR THIS AREA.
THIS CLEARING AND A RIDGE SPREADING IN OVERHEAD SHOULD ALLOW FOR EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT WITH VALLEYS FALLING INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S TONIGHT. FOG WON'T BE QUICK TO BURN OFF WITH THE LOWER SUN ANGLE THIS TIME OF YEAR. WENT CLOSER TO THE MET GUIDANCE IN THE MID 60S FOR HIGHS AS THE LOW SUN ANGLE AND EARLY MORNING FOG WILL MAKE IT HARD TO REACH THE MAV NUMBERS CLOSER TO 70. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. A PROGRESSIVE SYNOPTIC SCALE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE NATION AS THE PERIOD STARTS. WITH ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVING EASTWARD THROUGH KY.
A developing warm front is expected to lift northeast through the CWA this afternoon. The rest of the work week looks pretty tame with a broad but dry upper trough slowly plodding east through the central U. Cooler and drier air will sweep in behind today's storm system for the next few days. The GFS/ECMWF develop upper level ridging over the Rockies and shift it east.
102 PM EST TUE DEC 15 2015 HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
1258 PM EST TUE DEC 15 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN.
AS AN UPPER LOW IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS EJECTS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. A PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL BE FORCED EASTWARD ACROSS THE LONE STAR STATE. NOTICEABLY COOLER WEATHER WILL SETTLE INTO NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS ON WEDNESDAY. A COUPLE OF MID-LEVEL TROUGHS WILL SWING THROUGH THE REGION.
RIDGING OVER THE AREA WILL KEEP US DRY TONIGHT. THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALREADY HAS NARROW CLOUD BAND SPREADING NORTHEAST FROM TEXAS.
1007 AM CST TUE DEC 15 2015 WE ARE GETTING REPORTS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE FROM NEAR PKD WEST INTO THE SOUTHERN VALLEY. THIS MAY OCCUR OVER MOST AREAS TONIGHT WITH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WARMER THAN +10C AND DRY AIR ABOVE BEFORE WE TOTALLY SATURATE.
326 PM EST TUE DEC 15 2015 A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TONIGHT.
THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE AREA WIDE LATER TODAY AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROF EJECTING EAST FROM THE ROCKIES. HAVE ONLY TAKEN POPS INTO THE HIGH CHANCE CATEGORY.
WARM FRONT IS MOVING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING AND CLOUDS SHOULD GRADUALLY BREAK UP FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER GULF WATERS IN RESPONSE TO CYCLOGENESIS IN FRONT RANGE OF ROCKIES WILL SUBSIDE THIS AFTERNOON AS PREFRONTAL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE AREA.
A COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT WINDS TO NORTHWESTERLY OVERNIGHT.
311 PM CST TUE DEC 15 2015 WEAK SHOWERS CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AHEAD OF COLD FRONT PUSHING ACROSS CENTRAL TX LATE THIS AFTERNOON. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE SHUNTED AWAY FROM THE AREA AND USHER IN COOLER AND DRIER AIR. MAX TEMPS WEDNESDAY WILL BE 5-10 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY.
358 PM CST TUE DEC 15 2015 ACTIVE SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SET TO MOVE THROUGH REGION TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW. STRONG UPPER LOW IS LIFTING INTO NEBRASKA FROM COLORADO. THE LOW WILL THEN CONTINUE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. OUR OPPORTUNITY TO SEE PRECIP WILL BE IN THE WARM AIR ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT INDUCED BAND OF PRECIP OUT AHEAD OF THE LOW MAINLY OVERNIGHT. SOME SPOTS COULD SEE FREEZING DRIZZLE THIS EVENING ESPECIALLY NEAR NORTHWESTERN WI. OTHERWISE TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW WILL ALLOW MOSTLY RAIN OR DRIZZLE TO FALL.
High pressure at the surface and weak ridging aloft today should keep the region dry. Beyond that the forecast is dry due to high pressure at the surface, however with broad cyclonic flow aloft, small precipitation chances may have to be added later as short waves rotate through the flow.
ALONG WITH EXTENT OF FREEZING PRECIPITATION. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AND GUSTY WINDS RELATED TO THE STORM SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS. SURFACE TEMPERATURES WERE MOSTLY AT OR ABOVE FREEZING. BUT HAD SWITCHED OVER THE DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE. THE 12Z OAX SOUNDING WAS SATURATED IN THE LOWEST 2500FT WITH 0. SURFACE TEMPERATURES WERE ABOVE FREEZING. TEMPERATURES WERE BELOW FREEZING.
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT EACH TAF SITE THROUGH THE DAY AND NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND CLEAR SKIES CONTINUING OVER THE AREA.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. A COLD FRONT WILL BE PUSHING THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
255 PM CST TUE DEC 15 2015 Unseasonably warm conditions prevail across the region today, with increasing southerly winds ahead of a cold front that will traverse area tonight.
Mid/upper level low pressure over the central Rockies is forecast to lift out over the plains later today and into tonight. At the surface a lee side low pressure will deepen in western KS, and track northeastward through north central KS this evening. As the low pressure moves eastward a warm front will lift out of the Panhandles. Closer to the low pressure track the clouds may linger much longer. Soundings show low level saturation and increasing low level lift may support light rain with the low passage in these same areas. Although the warm front is forecast to lift through the area so this may support a warm up later today regardless.
STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL SHIFT NORTHEAST FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA TONIGHT. THE LOW LEVEL JET NOSE WILL POINT INTO THE AREA LATER TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AS WELL.
Late this morning, fairly strong cold advection was occurring in the 800-700mb layer, but below this layer the cold advection was being masked by downslope given the fairly strong cross-terrain component as the mid level cyclone tracks north of southwest KS. With the colder airmass in place, though, we should see lows bottom out in the lower to mid 20s for most locations and upper teens across far southwest and west central KS.
WHILE WARMER AIR ALOFT AND GOOD MIXING WILL RESULT IN SOME 60S IN SOUTHEAST KS. -HOWERTON STRONG LOW PRESSURE OVER WEST-CENTRAL KANSAS WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD TO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. BOUNDARY LAYER TO 850 MB MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW PRESSURE.
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY MORNING. /ISSUED 252 AM CST TUE DEC 15 2015/ LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE MILD ONCE AGAIN WITH HIGHS FROM THE MIDDLE 60S TO THE LOWER 70S. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD STALL NEAR OR JUST EAST OF THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON UNTIL A SECONDARY PUSH OF COOL AND DRY AIR ARRIVES OVERNIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY ACROSS THE WESTERN U.
SURFACE MAP SHOWING DEEPENING COLORADO CYCLONE WITH DEVELOPING SURFACE WAVE FAR SOUTH TEXAS. COLORADO CYCLONE LIFTS INTO MINNESOTA BY THIS TIME WEDNESDAY WITH COLD FRONT OUT OF LOW DOWN ALONG MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
LONGWAVE TROUGHING WAS DOMINATING MUCH OF THE CENTRAL US WITH RIDGING OFF BOTH COASTS. THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE CYCLONE CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AS IT TRANSLATES NORTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MOISTURE DOES TRY TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT BUT SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE REMAINS CONFINED TO THE GULF COAST. THE FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE THROUGH THE AS THE LOW PRESSURE MOVES MORE NORTHEAST THAN EAST.
The low-level ridge axis will transition off the Atlantic seaboard by tonight, with the southern periphery of the ridge eroding. High temperatures peaking into the mid 70s this afternoon will quickly fall into the 50s this evening as the boundary layer decouples prior to the arrival of the low clouds.
A COLD FRONT IS LOCATED ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY MOVING SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT A SUNNY DAY WEDNESDAY BUT TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER AS 925MB TEMPS FALL FROM NEAR 16-18C TODAY DOWN TO 10-12C TOMORROW.
QUITE COOLER THIS MORNING! OVERNIGHT LOWS WERE 10 DEGREES OR MORE COOLER THIS MORNING THAN YESTERDAYS. NOW TEMPS ARE IN THE LOWER 40S WITH A FEW OF THE COOLER VALLEY LOCATIONS DROPPING BELOW 40 DEGREES THIS MORNING. THE HIGH PRESSURE THAT IS CURRENTLY OVER THE AREA WILL BEGIN TO TRANSITION TO THE ATLANTIC COAST THIS EVENING SETTING UP AN EASTERLY WIND COMPONENT OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA. THE TROUGH THAT IS OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THIS MORNING WILL LIFT NEWRD INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BY WED.
However, A vigorous upper level low pressure system lifting northeast from the Plain into the Midwest overnight will push a cold front into the region on Wednesday. Though the mid level trof looks formidable, little chc for deep moisture return and weak convergence in the lower levels will likely limit and any precip to areas of light rain.
THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS HAS DEEP TROF ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND NORTHERN PLAINS. WITH CLOSED LOW LIFTING NORTH THROUGH WESTERN NEBRASKA. STRONG LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED OVER NORTHWEST KANSAS. WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.
329 PM EST TUE DEC 15 2015 DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
1129 AM CST TUE DEC 15 2015 MODEST WINDY DAY ACROSS THE TERMINALS ENDING EARLY IN THE EVENING AS UPPER LOW NORTHWEST KANSAS ROTATES NORTHEAST TOWARDS UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY TOMORROW MIDDAY. /ISSUED 151 AM CST TUE DEC 15 2015/ A DYNAMIC UPPER LOW CENTERED JUST TO THE NE OF THE 4-CORNERS OVER SWRN COLORADO EARLY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE EAST TO THE FRONT RANGE AT 12Z. THIS WILL RESULT IN A DRY COLD FRONT OF PACIFIC ORIGIN TO MOVE ACROSS THE FCST AREA. WILL FAVOR WARMER MAV NUMBERS FOR TODAYS HIGHS. WHICH WILL HELP TO OOZE DOWN A COOLER CANADIAN AIRMASS /HIGHS DROPPING DOWN INTO THE 40S AND 50S/.
1127 AM CST TUE DEC 15 2015 FOR 18Z TAFS /ISSUED 1019 AM CST TUE DEC 15 2015/ QUITE COOLER THIS MORNING! OVERNIGHT LOWS WERE 10 DEGREES OR MORE COOLER THIS MORNING THAN YESTERDAYS.
1130 AM CST TUE DEC 15 2015 RATHER IMPRESSIVE CLOSED LOW AT 500 MB WAS OVER THE ERN CO/NWRN KS BORDER AREA LATE THIS MORNING. DECENT 300 MB JET NOTED SOUTH OF THE LOW FROM SONORA MEXICO INTO THE TX PNHDL. THIS LOW WILL TRACK NEWD THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT. THUS EXPECT DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE AS LARGE SCALE LIFT MOVES INTO THE AREA THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY.
AS THIS LOW MOVES NWD ACROSS MN ON WEDNESDAY. COOLER TEMPS AND DRY AIR WILL MOVE IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT THRU THE WEEKEND. AS THIS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEKEND. HAVE INCLUDED MENTION OF VCSH GIVEN THE LOW CONFIDENCE OF THUNDER. ALTHOUGH CIGS MAY BECOME IFR AND VSBYS REDUCED LATE AS A WEAK COLD FRONT DRIFTS E INTO SW AR/E TX THIS EVENING AND INTO NW LA JUST PRIOR TO 12Z.
245 PM CST TUE DEC 15 2015 WV imagery shows the upper trough ejecting into the upper Midwest, trailing a Pac front which sfc analysis places in central Texas at 18Z. Indeed, NAM H85 temps are colder than both the GFS and ECMWF in the short term, and so we've opted to stay toward the warmer end of guidance.
AND LIGHT FOG AND AREAS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE AND SNOW FLURRIES RESIDE WHERE THE SNOW IS NOT FALLING. THE HIGHEST SNOW ACCUMS /6 TO 12 INCHES/ WITH THIS STORM WILL BE WHERE THE DEFORMATION ZONE PRECIPITATION IS SETTING UP SHOP ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. THERE MAY BE SOME FINE SNOW /VERY SMALL FLAKES/ OR PERHAPS P-TYPE CHANGES BACK TO MORE FREEZING DRIZZLE AND FOG ACROSS THESE AREAS. IF PRECIP DEVELOPS WITHIN THIS REGION OF THE UPPER LOW CIRCULATION.
HAVE INCLUDED MENTION OF VCSH GIVEN THE LOW CONFIDENCE OF THUNDER. ALTHOUGH CIGS MAY BECOME IFR AND VSBYS REDUCED LATE AS A WEAK COLD FRONT DRIFTS E INTO SW AR/E TX THIS EVENING AND INTO NW LA JUST PRIOR TO 12Z.
1150 AM EST TUE DEC 15 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA TODAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY YET ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
CLEARING LINE IS NOW APPROACHING I-37 CORRIDOR WITH TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S ACROSS THE BRUSH COUNTRY AND RIO GRANDE PLAINS. TEMPS ARE COOLER IN THE MID-UPPER 70S. THE COLD FRONT WAS ON THE MOVE ACROSS THE STATE AND LOCATED ALONG A LINE FROM EAGLE PASS TO KERRVILLE. EXPECT A CHILLY NIGHT WED NGT WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE REGION.
AND THE COLD CORE CLOSED LOW WILL REACH SERN COLORADO AROUND DAYBREAK. THIS LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR ENHANCED SNOWFALL. GRADIENT FLOW WILL BE CONSIDERABLY WEAKER BY TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE CLOSED LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST TOWARD LAKE SUPERIOR. THE CHANGE IN AIR MASS BRINGS COLDER TEMPERATURES WITH MOST VALLEY SPOTS STAYING BELOW FREEZING FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS WITH WEDNESDAY BEING THE COLDEST DAY OF THE WEEK.
WILL KEEP THE HIGHLIGHTS IN TACT FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WITH MINIMUM TEMPS IN THE LOW TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS IN SOME AREAS. THE LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN US WILL DEEPEN AS THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES IN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. THE REAL STORY WILL BE THE LOW TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
242 PM EST TUE DEC 15 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER AND WARMING TEMPS WEDNESDAY.
416 PM EST TUE DEC 15 2015 HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
A RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND A LOW OVER THE ROCKIES IS KEEPING A COLD DRY NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA. TONIGHT A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS OVER THE RIDGE AND INTO THE AREA WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND CENTRAL OREGON. LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY WITH LIGHT AMOUNTS IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND ANOTHER INCH OR TWO IN THE MOUNTAINS. WEDNESDAY NIGHT A STRONGER SYSTEM WITH A GENEROUS TAP OF MOISTURE WILL FLATTEN THE RIDGE AND MOVE INTO THE AREA. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE WARMER THAN PREVIOUS SYSTEMS. IT WILL BRING A RAIN AND SNOW MIX TO THE AREA AND WITH COLDER AIR AT THE SURFACE, THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR FREEZING RAIN FROM CENTRAL OREGON NORTH TO THE COLUMBIA GORGE AND COLUMBIA BASIN.
CLEAR AND COLD AGAIN TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW AT THE SURFACE.
MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO BKN/OVC CLOUD DECK WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR MOST AREAS BY 21Z THIS AFTERNOON AS PREFRONTAL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE AREA AND TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE MID/UPR 70S. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH A LRD-COT LINE BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. WARM FRONT IS MOVING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING AND CLOUDS SHOULD GRADUALLY BREAK UP FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER GULF WATERS IN RESPONSE TO CYCLOGENESIS IN FRONT RANGE OF ROCKIES WILL SUBSIDE THIS AFTERNOON AS PREFRONTAL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE AREA.
147 PM EST TUE DEC 15 2015 HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR WILL GIVE WAY TO A VERY MOIST WAVE ALONG THE APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGING PRECIP INTO NORTH AND CENTRAL GA WED AFTERNOON/EVENING. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL PUSH EASTWARD THROUGH WEDNESDAY. GUIDED BY LONGWAVE TROUGH BEHIND IT.
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW WHILE AT THE SURFACE. THE WEAK FRONT THAT MOVED INTO OUR AREA HAS STALLED AND IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT NORTHWARD TONIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO TOP OUT IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.
Thus, trended toward the cooler NAM MOS guidance. Most areas should fall around the freezing mark.