Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Clouds will be increasing through the day as isentropic lift strengthens ahead of the approaching low pressure system, which is now near the KS/MO border.
KABI is rather gusty right now as the low level jet has kicked in, but the remainder of the terminals are generally light. However, the main concerns will be associated with the passing of a cold front Saturday morning. However, the main concerns will be associated with the passing of a cold front Saturday morning. A few high clouds will move in from the northwest ahead of the cold front. A cold front will move through the area during the day on Saturday. The front will bring cooler temperatures and strong winds. Temperatures will top out in the upper 60s with areas along the I-10 corridor seeing temperatures in the lower 70s.
SHORT TERM (Today through Sunday): The latest surface analysis shows a cold front across Oklahoma with a dry line extending into west Texas. Water vapor imagery and satellite total Precipitable water continues to indicate a dry air mass remains in place across much of Texas courtesy of mid level ridging anchored over northern Mexico. The cold front is forecast to move south across Texas today and approach the northern ranchlands this evening. Ahead of the cold front, a very warm day with above normal temperatures are expected across deep south Texas today. The strong cold front is expected to move through deep south Texas this evening. Low temperatures tonight will range from the low 50s across the northern ranchlands to the lower 60s along the beaches.
The southwest half of the forecast area will be breezy this afternoon where better mixing is expected along a lee side trough. Upper ridge builds into Montana tonight and Sunday with warmer air mass. This will bring dry weather and warmer temperatures which will be above normal temperatures on Sunday.
113 AM EST Sat Nov 18 2017 Low pressure over central Kansas early this morning will deepen rapidly as it streaks northeast into northern Ohio by evening. Cold air settles in the wake of the low Sunday.
MVFR ceilings to increase in coverage areawide through 18/18Z before becoming VFR as a cold front moves across the region from the northwest. /issued 856 PM CST Fri Nov 17 2017/ South winds to gradually increase across area as cold front moves south across central plains. Do not expect this front to reach se OK until just after daybreak so the overnight fcst only involves near steady to very slow falls on current temps mainly in the lower 70s to fall into the mid to upper 60s as winds and gradually increasing cloud cover inhibit cooling.
450 AM EST Sat Nov 18 2017 The mean layer ridge persists over central Mexico, meanwhile the latest short wave trough complex is pushing southeast across Cuba. Temperatures are in the lower 70s with dewpoints in the lower 60s (dps several degrees lower than expected). On Sunday, a vigorous cold front over the Gulf of Mexico will quickly lose its gusto as it works southeast towards the Keys. This front will stall across the Keys Sunday night as the high developing in the southeastern United States bridges the boundary.
VFR conditions will return by around 14z with gusty south to southwest winds developing ahead of an approaching cold front. The highest gusts are expected at DHN. Deep layer ridging will build across our area tonight, resulting in continued dry conditions. The short wave trough over the Great Basin will sweep east across the country this weekend reaching the Eastern Seaboard Sunday night. Cooler air will arrive behind the system for Sunday and Sunday night with temps at mid-winter levels. It is possible that areas north of Albany could approach freezing.
1153 PM EST Fri Nov 17 2017 A low pressure system brings showers that will continue into Saturday along with a thunderstorm. Behind the low, cooler air arrives so rain may mix with or turn to light snow for a period before shutting off Sunday afternoon. Tonight's lows will drop into the low to mid 40s before rebounding towards the upper 40s to mid 50s on Saturday. Cold air settles in the wake of the low Sunday.
A strong cold front will approach the area this morning and move through this afternoon into the early evening hours. The peak time frame for the higher gusts looks to be 2-8 PM. Temperatures will be on the warmer side today, topping out in the mid 60s. However, they will quickly drop into the 40s behind the front with lows tonight in the low to mid 30s. Tomorrow will be much cooler with highs in the lower to mid 40s.
312 AM CST Sat Nov 18 2017 Positively tilted trough swinging through the region this morning will exit to the east by midday today. This will lead to cooler nighttime lows, in the upper teens to mid 20s.
Southerly winds and cloudy skies have kept temperatures in the lower to mid 60s. Currently a cold front extends from northeast Kansas and into eastern Colorado. The cold front will move through the region on Saturday. The cold front will be out of the region by Saturday night with rain ending over eastern sections of the forecast area. High pressure will be in place by Sunday morning bringing dry weather and below normal temperatures with highs from the mid 40s to mid 50s.
Temps will continue to warm thru the overnight hrs and should be in the lower 60s, mid to upper 50s Cumberland Plateau Region by 18/12Z as sfc pressure gradient influences continue to strengthen. Winds will continue to increase and become gusty with the approach of a strong cold front.
A cold upper level trough will move out of Utah tonight. High pressure aloft will spread across the region this weekend.
1017 PM CST Fri Nov 17 2017 Although VFR is expected through the TAF period a very strong cold front will move through around daybreak on Saturday morning. This will change early Saturday as a storm system currently moving through the Intermountain West emerges over the High Plains and allows surface ridging to spill southward through the South Plains.
Winds will be light out of the southwest to west overnight then a cold front will move into the area Saturday morning. /issued 133 PM CST Fri Nov 17 2017/ Upper level trough moving across the central Rockies and Plains will drag a cold front through the forecast area late tonight and Saturday. Temperatures will fall to near freezing with a freeze possible in portions of the northern and central Permian Basin that have yet to see freezing temperatures this fall. Beyond Saturday night the weather looks quiet through the next work week as a northwest to northerly flow aloft regime takes place between a west coast upper ridge and eastern trough.
Current water vapor imagery shows a longwave trough moving through the Central Plains. This system is sending a cold front south with its current location in the Texas Panhandle and northwestern Oklahoma. Highs today will be in the 70s and 80s with the peak temperature likely occurring just before the passage of the cold front.
1001 PM MST Fri Nov 17 2017 Current surface analysis shows initial cold front south of the forecast area, with a secondary front edging into northern SD. Upper level analysis shows fast zonal flow across the area, with a trough moving quickly east-southeast across the central Rockies. Jet energy ahead of the trough is helping to produce areas of pcpn across the forecast area. Temps across the forecast area range from the mid 30s over northeast WY and the higher Black Hills to the upper 40s over south central SD. North- northwest winds will become breezy in many areas tonight as area of low pressure passes southeast of the region and secondary front passes through at least northern and eastern portions of the area.
435 AM EST Sat Nov 18 2017 With onshore/upslope flow today, expect some drizzle and freezing drizzle.
Based on model soundings, much drier air will remain prevalent in the lower levels as a westerly downslope flow persists across the area behind an advancing dryline in central Kansas. A drier period can be expected Sunday through the middle part of the week as medium range models show weak ridging aloft breaking down as it moves out of the Intermountain West into the Central Plains, giving way to yet another more amplified ridge building across the Intermountain West toward Sunday.
The rest of the weekend wl be drier and much cooler as high pressure settles into the region.
350 AM CST Sat Nov 18 2017 Today and Tonight: Warm advection stratus has overspread the majority of the forecast area this morning ahead of a cold front quickly diving south out of the Central Plains. Very little in the way of precipitation falling out of the shallow ascent of yet, but that should change as the boundary encounters the deeper moisture in place over the lower MS valley later today. Near stationary high pressure along the east coast and low pressure moving across the MS valley has resulted in a strengthening gradient with some rather gusty winds, primarily over the ArkLaMiss Delta region.
421 AM EST Sat Nov 18 2017 High pressure over the area will move off the coast this afternoon. This will result in warmer conditions and an increase in moisture by late in the day. A cold front will move rapidly across the region tonight with scattered showers and breezy conditions.
Low pressure was located in northeast Kansas with a warm front into central MO. Low pressure will be tracking across northern MO into central IL, pulling a strong cold front southeast into the dvn cwa after midnight. Northwest winds will gust to 35 to 40 mph during the day as the cyclone deepens as it tracks into the eastern Great Lakes region by later in the day.
Strengthening low pressure passing by well to the south today. Associated with the low is a sharpening mid-level short wave and area of mid-level frontogenetical forcing that will pass across southern Wisconsin this morning. Increasing northerly winds in the low levels will pull colder air across southern Wisconsin through the morning. Pavement temperatures will remain above freezing, but strength of sloping frontogenetical forcing may result in a burst of wet snow and reduced visibilities with rapid accumulations on grassy and colder surfaces.
A cold front will push through the region from the northwest, and will trigger isolated to scattered showers and a thunderstorm or two. A warm front has lifted into AR, with elevated south winds at 10 to 20 mph with some gusts. Temperatures have warmed behind the warm front and are from the mid and lower 70s south, around 70 central and 60s north. Models are close in timing of the cold front into AR, with around 12Z into far northwest AR, around 15-18Z near LIT, then 18Z-00Z to eastern AR and out of the state. By evening, most of the convection will be east and drier and cooler air will filter into AR.
Cold front still on schedule to move through northeast OK 11-13Z and into southeast OK/northwest AR 14-16Z.
A ridge will be over the area on Saturday with some mid and high clouds moving through the ridge and some showers possible along the Washington Cascades. Mid and high level clouds will continue to spread across the area tonight and Saturday as a flat ridge of high pressure moves into the area. An upper level ridge will build over the Pacific Northwest this evening. This upper ridge will remain over the region Saturday and Saturday night. The ridge will be low amplitude, thus varying amounts of mid and high level cloudiness will persist over the region through Saturday night. A disturbance will break down the upper ridge Sunday and then swing into the region Sunday night.
The main weather feature today will be a strong cold front that will move across the area, bringing gusty north winds and cooler temperatures areawide. Temperatures will be much cooler today, with highs ranging from the lower 60s north, to the lower 70s along the I-10 corridor. The light winds, clear skies and a dry airmass will promote ideal radiational cooling overnight, allowing temperatures to fall into the low to mid 30s by daybreak Sunday.
Winds will remain strong, however, so strong moisture advection in the low levels ahead of the front may be enough to overcome the decreasing diurnal support, so kept in mention of thunderstorms into the late afternoon and even early evening over the Plateau region in case the front has a little slower progression this evening.
In its wake a dry cold front will continue to progress steadily south. based on radar from Amarillo and sfc obs the cold front is right on Amarillo's doorstep. Both the high resolution models HRRR and RAP13 show the cold front reaching the Northern CWA around 14Z. The cold front looks to make it to the Rio Grande around 18Z. but with the coldest air to the north and with a light breeze have kept temps tonight near or a little below freezing in the north and in the mountains. but left most of the area above freezing (including MAF - see climate section below). Ridging will build over the weekend from Baja California north thru the Intermountain West into the Canadian Rockies. As a result there will be a deep trof in the eastern US.
Winds are expected to decrease through Sat morning ahead of a cold front.
359 AM CST Sat Nov 18 2017 Cold front has just about pushed through the southern portions of the forecast area as of early this morning. The other aspect to the day will be the windy conditions, with the highest gusts likely occurring during the morning into early afternoon hours. Otherwise, with the cooler airmass in place along with clear skies and winds becoming light, overnight lows for tonight will fall back down into the middle 20s to near 30.
310 AM CST Sat Nov 18 2017 After record high temperatures yesterday, a cold front will usher in much cooler and drier air to the southern Plains. Although temperatures will be much cooler today, very strong winds and low afternoon humidity will result in elevated to near- critical fire weather conditions. The wind will quickly decrease after 4 pm and with very dry air and clear skies, freezing temperatures will be possible by sunrise Sunday.
319 AM CST Thu Dec 21 2017 Freezing drizzle and light snow will be the main impact for today. A strong cold front will sweep through the area, dropping temperatures below freezing, resulting in freezing drizzle. Temperatures are currently above freezing across the entire area. Sub-freezing temperatures are expected to move into northwestern edges of the forecast area by 6-7AM, steadily progressing southeast across the area through the morning and early afternoon. Highs on Friday in the low to mid 30s should be sufficient to melt any snow or ice accumulations from today.
209 AM MST Thu Dec 21 2017 High pressure will be over Eastern Montana this morning. The high will quickly move to the southeast this afternoon. Skies will become cloudy this afternoon ahead of a cold front that will move through the forecast area tonight. Cold Canadian high pressure builds into the forecast area on Friday but clouds will linger over the area as atmosphere remains moist with upper trough over the region.
328 AM EST Thu Dec 21 2017 Dry weather is expected until low pressure returns precipitation chances to the region tonight through part of the weekend. Low pressure is progged to track from the Plains to the Upper Midwest/Western Great Lakes area tonight and Friday. The low's associated warm front is expected to move N across the area tonight and early Friday, returning rain chances to the area. There is a chance of a brief period of freezing rain at the onset tonight mainly toward Forest and Jefferson counties, though with sufficient warm advection think temperatures should be above freezing with a non-diurnal temperature trend before most precip starts.
/issued 805 PM EST Wed Dec 20 2017/ Evening IR satellite imagery is showing the approaching cold front moving south through the Florida Panhandle as the front gradually weakens. A weak cold front will move south through the coastal waters tonight and Thursday morning. High pressure and calm conditions will then build back in behind the front through late in the weekend.
1119 PM EST Wed Dec 20 2017 High pressure will build across the region later tonight through early Friday.
In those areas the precipitation will start later, thus temperatures will be warmer and by the time the front arrives in south-central CO it will be weaker.
Winds will then briefly die back and possibly become light and variable ahead of a cold front that will move across the TAF sites at the end of this TAF cycle. It still appears that the upper low will elongate and remain mostly positively tilted as it approaches on Friday, though some solutions have been showing more closed height contours and overspreading precipitation chances further north and west than had been anticipated. Otherwise, looking for a sharp cold front to dive southward Thursday night with about a 30 degree drop Thursday to Friday. A warm layer aloft should dissolve by late Friday as the upper trough approaches, so trending more towards frozen phase, vs mixed phase precipitation early Friday. Upper low/trough will steer off to the east late Friday night with layered drying and low level flow veering more westerly.
308 AM CST Thu Dec 21 2017 A warm front will continue to lift northeast through central Missouri early this morning. A sharp cold front will then move through the Ozarks this evening. Areas of west-central Missouri should fall into the lower and middle 30s while areas of south-central Missouri only fall into the middle to upper 40s.
1024 PM MST Wed Dec 20 2017 Upper trough dropping into the Great Basin this afternoon with very warm and dry southwest flow ahead of it over all of srn CO. Tonight, trough digs southward toward the four corners, with mid level low closing off over srn UT by early Thu morning. Cold front drops south through the plains toward sunrise, then banks up against the eastern mountains by midday Thu. On Thu, upper low moves slowly eastward into CO, with system weakening and taking on a more positive tilt by late afternoon as it tracks along the CO/NM border. I-25 corridor amounts in general look spotty and light, with perhaps an inch or 2 along the Palmer Divide and across the higher terrain south of Pueblo.
High pressure keeps things dry and seasonable through the weekend.
Initial Canadian cold front has swept across our forecast area with blustery north winds ushering in cold Canadian airmass with temperatures in the teens to middle 20s. Widespread snow expected to continue to develop and spread southward this morning across our counties with widespread amounts of 2 to 4 inches with locally higher amounts near the Pine Ridge and over the Nebraska Panhandle from Scottsbluff to Alliance. Secondary Canadian cold frontal intrusion takes place from north to south with minimum temperatures dropping off into the single digits and lower teens.
149 AM PST Thu Dec 21 2017 Gusty east winds will be in place this morning across the Sierra ridgetops before diminishing this evening. Thereafter, high pressure returns with light winds and valley inversions developing. Gusty east winds up to 75 mph are expected across the Sierra ridgetops this morning due to mid-upper level jet winds on the backside of our recent low pressure system. Thereafter, our persistent upper level ridge will once again build into the weekend providing drier conditions and valley inversions.
149 AM EST Thu Dec 21 2017 A ridge of high pressure will build across the region today.
Until then, dry conditions remain in place to allow for cooler temperatures. The lower visibilities really depend on the amount of moisture return overnight.
Should be drier in the low-levels at TRI with VFR expected to continue through the night.
A low pressure system and associated precipitation will begin to approach Thursday night bringing the beginning of an unsettled pattern to the region. With the combination of WAA and increase in cloud cover went close to the warmer guidance values and away from the superblend. The warm front will remain along or just north of our northern forecast area through much of the day on Friday.
1228 AM EST Thu Dec 21 2017 High pressure will build over the region tonight then move east on Thursday.
We're expecting that to clear out a bit tonight with some of the low level flow turning easterly. So freezing fog remains a concern tonight like we saw during the start of December. We expect clouds and showers to diminish in coverage this evening and this is likely to lead to valley LIFR with freezing fog overnight into Thursday morning.
/Issued 825 PM EST Wed Dec 20 2017/ Upper disturbance axis and attendant low pressure center just impinging upon NW extent of CWA as of this update. as the front/low center move east of the state we will see a wedge of high pressure quickly build in across the CWA with the surface flow turning eastward over night.
349 AM CST Thu Dec 21 2017 Upper low over the Great Basin this morning will swing east and open to a trough Friday as it crosses the Rockies.
307 AM CST Thu Dec 21 2017 Current GOES water vapor showing well developed trough of low pressure moving across the Dakotas into MN. Meanwhile, a closed low was pushing toward the central Rockies. The f-gen band of light snow slowly sinks south/weakens later this afternoon into this evening while portions of far southwest WI/northeast IA moisten up in the lowest 2-4kft with no cloud ice. This could shake out some light drizzle/freezing drizzle for areas generally south of a line from Richland Center WI to Waukon and New Hampton IA late this afternoon into this evening which could impact the commute.
High pressure covers the rest of the region for much of the day. Friday afternoon and evening could bring some chances of light snow over our northern counties as a cold front makes its way through the Northland.
skies will be clearing from the northwest as cold high pressure fills into the area. But temps will hold steady as the cold front pushes through the area on Friday. Upper level ridge extended from off the West Coast to AK. Ridge will continue to build north. An upper level trough over northern Hudson Bay will move to the southwest Hudson Bay. Long wave ridge over the eastern Pacific broadens farther west while an upper level trough centered over south central Canada will shift into southeastern Canada by next Thu. A short wave break through base of west coast ridge on Sun. with areas of IFR CIGS and VSBYS mainly between the Highway 200 and Highway 10 corridors.
343 AM CST Thu Dec 21 2017 Water vapor imagery this morning was showing a positive longwave trof extending from central Canada to the southwestern CONUS, with an embedded circulation centered over the Great Basin. Attendant warm front extended from northwest IA into southern MO. Main obstacle to overcome is timing liquid/freezing/frozen precip today. Timing push of cold air advection in to the northern CWA suggests freezing drizzle will be the initial threat this morning through mid afternoon before change over to all light snow when the column goes below zero. Given the potential for prolonged freezing drizzle. However, expect the cold air advection to shove the demarcation of drizzle/freezing drizzle to roughly the I-80 corridor by early afternoon, then expand a bit more south.
1232 AM EST Thu Dec 21 2017 Dry conditions can be expected until low pressure returns precipitation to the region on Friday into the weekend. Dry weather should continue overnight under high pressure, though an increase in mid level clouds is expected in warm advection. Precipitation chances will increase Friday as a warm front lifts north over the forecast area. Will need to watch temperature trends Friday morning as any early morning precip may pose brief freezing rain problems.
00Z NAM depicts isentropic lift in the 290-300K layer increasing toward sunrise, but this would be above the low cloud layer. Any drizzle from the lower cloud layer overnight should be very light. Zonal/weak ridging at 500mb Thursday should result in warmer temps, southerly surface flow, and at least some breaks in the clouds. Surface cold front to move into CWA Friday morning, bisecting the area from SW-NE by late Friday.
1118 PM EST Wed Dec 20 2017 A ridge of high pressure will build across the region today.