Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A BIT WARMER TODAY. TONIGHT-SAT: A BIT OF COOLER AIR WILL TRY TO MOVE IN FROM THE NE. NOT ENTIRELY CONVINCED ABOUT THE MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES MODELS ARE ADVERTISING. 1000-850 MILLIBAR THICKNESSES PUSHED TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER-MID 70S. -HOWERTON UPPER LOW AND TROUGH WILL MEANDER BACK INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND SPREAD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BACK INTO KS MIDWEEK.
AN AREA OF MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WAS SITUATED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE AT A MINIMUM THIS MORNING BUT REMAIN LIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS OVER THE WATERS. WINDS WILL INCREASE AND MAY REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT BRINGS MODERATE RAIN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW THIS WEEKEND WITH BUILDING NORTHWEST SWELL AND ALSO MODERATE NORTH WINDS IN THE OUTER WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO.
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 85 65 73 49 / 20 60 80 10 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 82 63 74 44 / 20 60 80 10 OAK RIDGE, TN 82 63 73 45 / 20 70 80 10 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 81 61 76 43 / 50 50 80 10.
645 AM CDT Thu Apr 9 2015 Latest surface analysis shows the warm front has lifted to the I-74 corridor early this morning with a chaotic wind field across most of the forecast area. Current thinking is that the cold front will be positioned just west of the Mississippi River by 21z with surface based convection developing ahead of the front at that time as well. Temperature-wise, with the warm front to our north this afternoon, will continue to go with the warmer guid values most areas. Despite the short forecast range, there is still some spread in the expected cold frontal timing.
THE COMBINATION AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AND WARM LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PRODUCE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AGAIN TODAY WITH MOST AREAS REACHING THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S THIS AFTERNOON. THE LOW LEVEL WINDS WEAKEN AND VEER AS THE LINE PUSHES INTO NORTH ALABAMA AND THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT PULLS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. DRIER MID LEVEL AIR WILL PUSH INTO NORTH ALABAMA FRIDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE SHORT WAVE TROF AXIS.
(PREVIOUS DISC) HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN FIRM CONTROL OF LCL WX.
HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE ATLANTIC EXTENDING INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL HOLD THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER SW KS WITH THE COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM NORTHERN MO TO NORTH OF KICT AND INTO THE LOW OVER SW KS. A DRYLINE EXTENDS SOUTH OF THE LOW THROUGH THE OK PANHANDLE AND INTO WEST TX. HIGH PRESSURE WILL ENCOMPASS THE REGION ON FRI WHICH WILL PROVIDE LIGHT WINDS. THE UPPER PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHWEST OVER THE PLAINS WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR SOME LEE TROUGHING AND MOISTURE TO WORK BACK NORTH. THE MAIN STORY THROUGH THESE EXTENDED PERIODS WILL BE THE UPPER LOW TO LIFT OUT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND HOPEFULLY BRING SOME MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL. THE TRACK OF THIS LOW WOULD BE IDEAL FOR THE REGION TO RECEIVE RAINFALL. AS A COLD FRONT SURGES SOUTHWARD WITH NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING.
A WEAK RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA INTO TONIGHT. FRIDAY WILL BE DRY AND WARMER OVER INLAND AREAS WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
AN UNUSUALLY WARM AIR MASS REMAINS SITUATED OVER MIDDLE TENNESSEE THIS MORNING WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NW. WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ISN'T EXPECTED UNTIL THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH. HOWEVER, SINCE WE ARE STARTING THE DAY SO WARM, AND THE CHANCE OF RAIN TODAY IS REASONABLY SMALL, WILL GO WITH TEMPS ABOVE MAV MOS GUIDANCE AND TAKE HIGHS BACK INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 80S FOR MOST AREAS TODAY. COLD FRONT MOVES IN TONIGHT, ALONG WITH AN ACCOMPANYING SQUALL LINE.
738 AM EDT THU APR 9 2015 A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS THIS MORNING WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY CLOUDY AND SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER BEFORE A STRONG WARM FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT WITH ADDITIONAL RAIN EXPECTED INTO FRIDAY.
MESOSCALE ANALYSIS AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS THIS MORNING ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS SHOW THE DRYLINE ADVANCING SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE HILL COUNTRY AS A SHARPER TROUGH AXIS PIVOTS ACROSS KANSAS PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. FURTHER MIXING IN THE LOW LEVELS IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE LATE TO MID AFTERNOON WITH THE CAPPING INVERSION LIKELY TO BREAK AFTER 4PM PER GFS/NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS ALONG AND NORTH OF A FREDERICKSBURG TO NEW BRAUNFELS TO LA GRANGE LINE.
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PACNW WAS PUMPING MOISTURE INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE ZONES THIS MORNING WITH SOME SHOWERS EXPECTED ACROSS THIS AREA ALONG WITH A FEW TSRA POSSIBLE.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE KBVO. /ISSUED 449 AM CDT THU APR 9 2015/ COLD FRONT.
A RATHER SOUPY AIRMASS REMAINS ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY THIS MORNING, WITH HOURLY TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S, AND DEWPOINTS IN THE MIDDLE 60S. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE TO OUR EAST IS COMBINING WITH A STRENGTHENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS, PINWHEELING GULF MOISTURE NORTH/NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST. CLOUDS ARE INCREASING FROM THE WEST AT THIS HOUR AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT, WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS IN NW AL AND MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS IN NE AL PER THE LATEST VIS SATELLITE IMAGE. WITH MID/HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUING TO STREAM INTO THE AREA WELL IN ADVANCE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE EWD TOWARD THE WRN HALF OF THE AREA AFTER 06Z FRI.
100 PM EDT THU APR 9 2015 AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE PLAINS WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL COME THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY.
1041 AM MDT THU APR 9 2015 THE UPPER TROUGH HAS PUSHES EAST AND THE PRECIPITATION OVER THE PLAINS HAS MOVED OUT OF THE CWA AS WELL. FURTHER SOUTH THE LOW LVL FLOW WILL BE MORE NNWLY SO PCPN CHANCES SHOULD BE LOWER FROM DENVER SOUTHWARD. AS FOR HIGHS WILL KEEP READINGS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S OVER NERN CO.
805 AM EDT THU APR 9 2015 CIRCULATION AROUND ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN A MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS OUR REGION INTO FRIDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL BUILD ACROSS CALIFORNIA THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK RESULTING IN WARMING TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS.
A SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS DUG INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. THE FLORIDA KEYS ARE JUST WEST OF THIS UPPER TROUGH AXIS. THIS FEATURE REMAINS DISCONNECTED WITH THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE.
1024 AM CDT THU APR 9 2015 DRY HIGH PRESSURE CONTS TO SLOWLY BUILD INTO THE NRN PLAINS. PRECIPITATION IS ON THE WANE AS A RIDGE SLIDES ALONG FRONT RANGE AND LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA FRIDAY.
612 AM CDT THU APR 9 2015 NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE WITH HIGHER GUSTS WILL PREVAIL BEHIND A COLD FRONT TODAY.
1035 AM CDT THU APR 9 2015 COLD FRONT IS NEAR A KPNC-KOKC-KFDR LINE THIS MORNING AND WILL MOVE THROUGH A GOOD DEAL OF THE TULSA COUNTY WARNING AREA BY 00Z FRIDAY.
601 AM CDT Thu Apr 9 2015 Today/Tonight: The approach of the upper trough and strengthening low-level jet has aided in sufficient ascent to generate an increase in convective development over the past 1-2 hours across parts of the Central Plains and Mid Missouri Valley. Current surface analysis point to low pressure near Great Bend, KS with an accompanying cold front stretching southwestward, and near stationary warm front northeast from the low situated over far northwest Missouri near STJ. Forecast reflects the anticipation of shallow convection to develop along the cold front prior to midday just east of the KS/MO border. High pressure builds in on Friday, with the coolest day in the near-term with highs in the middle 60s. As the high shifts east for the weekend, warmer weather and a return of southerly winds/moisture will commence.
This upper level trough will push a cold front south through the forecast area tonight and stall near the Rio Grande River Friday.
and then northeast tonight at the terminals as a cold front moves south across the area. As an upper trough continues to move east, showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms are possible, mainly across the Northwest Hill Country and Heartland today. Another cold front will begin to push into West Central Texas later today; however, this event will be mainly a wind shift, and winds from the north to northeast won't begin until overnight. Thus, overnight lows will be cooler than the last couple nights, but still in mainly the 55 to 60 range; that's 5 to 10 degrees above normals.
1032 AM EDT THU APR 9 2015 A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS THIS MORNING WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY CLOUDY AND SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER BEFORE A STRONG WARM FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT WITH ADDITIONAL RAIN EXPECTED INTO FRIDAY.
WILL BE IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT EASTWARD AND REACH WESTERN KY BY 06Z FRIDAY. LATEST GFS40 FORECAST HAS THE COLD FRONT ENTERING INTO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA BY 12Z FRIDAY. A COOLER AND LESS HUMID WEEKEND IS IN STORE FOR THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS.
645 AM CDT THU APR 9 2015 ACTIVE WEATHER CONTINUES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE CONUS IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY TRAVERSING THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AND WILL LIKELY PERSIST IN THIS REGION UNTIL THE LOW LEVEL JET MIXES OUT MID MORNING. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT SURGES SOUTH INTO NORTH TEXAS. WHEN A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION. MOST OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATE THAT THE FRONT WILL MOVE TO NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF A BONHAM TO DFW TO COMANCHE LINE BY 00Z.
THE RAP SUGGESTS HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S WHICH WAS MARKED UP TO UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50 IN SOME AREAS. THE WRN SANDHILLS WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S AS PROGGED BY THE RAP. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD TONIGHT WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES FOR LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. RETURN FLOW AIDED BY THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LEE SIDE TROUGH ON FRIDAY WILL ADVECT MOISTURE FROM THE GULF COAST NORTHWARD ONTO THE HIGH PLAINS.
VFR WILL BE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LOWEST LAYER MIXES OUT WITH GUSTY WINDS. /ISSUED 430 AM CDT THU APR 9 2015/ EARLY MORNING SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE SRN ATLANTIC COAST RIDGING WWD ACROSS THE SERN STATES. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A STRONG TROF DIGGING ACROSS THE ROCKIES THIS MORNING. IN THE SHORT TERM THE TROF WILL CONTINUE TO NUDGE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CLOSER TO THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. POPS INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY FOR FRIDAY AS THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLIP SWD THROUGH THE AREA AT THAT TIME.
THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA BRINGING WARM TEMPERATURES TO MANY LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS RIDGE WILL MOVE EASTWARD ON FRIDAY ALLOWING FOR LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO INCREASE. /ISSUED 345 AM EDT THU APR 9 2015/ MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TODAY. AND TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE LOW/MID 80S EAST AND THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S INTERIOR AND WEST. AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EASTWARD.
750 AM EDT THU APR 9 2015 A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS THIS MORNING WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY CLOUDY AND SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER BEFORE A STRONG WARM FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT WITH ADDITIONAL RAIN EXPECTED INTO FRIDAY.
/ISSUED 731 AM EDT THU APR 9 2015/ /ISSUED 357 AM EDT THU APR 9 2015/ FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM IS ON A COLD FRONT THAT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE CWA ON FRIDAY. LOW LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR ARE ON THE LOWER SIDE. NAM IS LOWER AROUND THIS TIME AND DEPICTS THE HIGHER VALUES EARLIER IN THE NIGHT AND AGAIN DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AS THE FRONT COMES THROUGH. EXPECT A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND EVEN THOUGH THE SHEAR IS ON THE LOWER SIDE.
00Z MODELS WANT TO COOL ATMOSPHERE NEAR/AT/BELOW FREEZING AND CHANGE PRECIPITATION TO ALL SNOW OR MIX SNOW IN WITH THE RAIN OVER WESTERN WISCONSIN. AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO CANADA.
ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. WHEN A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION. MOST OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATE THAT THE FRONT WILL MOVE TO NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF A BONHAM TO DFW TO COMANCHE LINE BY 00Z.
TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING VERY MILD THIS MORNING WITH READINGS MAINLY IN THE LOWER 70S ACROSS THE REGION. THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO TAKE ON A NEGATIVE TILT THIS AFTERNOON AND THE SURFACE WILL DEEPEN AS IT TRAVERSES NORTHEAST FROM OKLAHOMA TO NEAR CHICAGO ILLINOIS BY EARLY EVENING. THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY LATE EVENING.
1033 AM EDT THU APR 9 2015 PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL A COLD FRONT PASSES BY EARLY FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD ALONG THE WARM FRONT. A LULL IN PRECIPITATION CAN BE EXPECTED EARLY TONIGHT BEFORE THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE FROM THE WEST FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE AREA.
AND WITH THE WARM FRONT NOW LIFTING NORTH OF INTERSTATE 64. I AM A BIT CONCERNED NOT MUCH WILL GO ON UNTIL THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATER TODAY AND THIS EVENING. SPC HAS PLACED ALL OF THE REGION IN AN ENHANCED SLIGHT RISK AREA FOR DEEP CONVECTION THAT SHOULD FIRE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE EASTWARD MOVING COLD FRONT LATER TODAY AND THIS EVENING. BUT THINK PERIODS OF SUNSHINE WILL LEAD TO SFC TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S SOME LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON. COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR WILL MOVE IN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND TO START THE WEEKEND. AND GEM ALL MOVE A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.
AN EXITING UPPER TROUGH AND ACCOMPANYING INSTABILITY WILL KEEP SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL OREGON AND SW IDAHO MTNS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. LARGE UPPER LOW THAT MOVED BY TO OUR SOUTH YDAY IS NOW HEADING INTO THE PLAINS. TODAY WE WILL BE INFLUENCED BY A WEAK UPPER LOW OVER WASHINGTON.
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SE TODAY WILL SUPPRESS CONVECTION AND MAKE FOR A SUNNY AND WARM DAY.
AND MAY NEED TO RAISE SOME AREAS INTO THE LOW 60S WITH THE NEXT UPDATE. WITH ANTICIPATED SOLAR TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A BIT WARMER. COLUMN COLDER BUT SOME CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP MINIMUM TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF FREEZING. UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST FRIDAY SO ANY LINGERING PCPN SHOULD BE DONE BY AFTERNOON. HIGH SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST FRIDAY NIGHT SETTING UP RETURN FLOW AND INCREASING WARM ADVECTION WHICH SHOULD KEEP MINIMUMS WARMER.
Surface front lifted to the north from yesterday at this time extending over northern Missouri and back to the southwest into southwest Kansas with a dryline extending south out of the low into west Texas. Main upper level trough was centered over the Rockies with broad southwesterly flow remaining across the southern Plains into our forecast area. Thunderstorm coverage will likely increase during the remainder of the overnight as the low level jet increases over the region. High pressure should build into the area from the west with a cooler and drier air mass moving in.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE QUICKLY SE ACROSS OK/N TX TODAY. /ISSUED 348 AM CDT THU APR 9 2015/ A COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE SOUTHEAST ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS TODAY. COOLER AIR WILL FLOW INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT. AND TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN THEY HAVE BEEN FOR A FEW DAYS.
635 AM CDT THU APR 9 2015 A PACIFIC COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE FCST AREA THIS MORNING WILL BRING IN DRIER AIR LIMITING WINDOW FOR RESTRICTIONS FROM CIG AND/OR VSBY TO ONE TOO SMALL TO INSERT INTO THE TAFS ATTM. A STRONG UPPER LOW OVER COLORADO AND WYOMING EARLY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE EWD TO MINNESOTA AND IOWA BY THE END OF THE DAY THEN NEWD ACROSS WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL DRIVE A PACIFIC COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FCST AREA THIS MORNING FOLLOWED BY A MODIFIED CANADIAN AIR MASS THIS EVENING. COOL SURFACE RIDGING WILL MIGRATE EAST OF THE REGION SPURRING MOIST ISENTROPIC ASCENT. BUT WE REMAIN SKEPTICAL OF THIS RATE OF MOISTENING/SATURATION ALOFT GIVEN TONIGHT/S COLD FRONT HAS PLANS TO STALL QUITE A WAYS FARTHER SOUTH THAN MODELS INDICATED DAYS AGO.
731 AM EDT THU APR 9 2015 /ISSUED 357 AM EDT THU APR 9 2015/ FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM IS ON A COLD FRONT THAT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE CWA ON FRIDAY. LOW LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR ARE ON THE LOWER SIDE. NAM IS LOWER AROUND THIS TIME AND DEPICTS THE HIGHER VALUES EARLIER IN THE NIGHT AND AGAIN DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AS THE FRONT COMES THROUGH. EXPECT A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND EVEN THOUGH THE SHEAR IS ON THE LOWER SIDE.
626 AM CDT THU APR 9 2015 SOUTH WINDS TO INCREASE TO 15 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS TODAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST EARLY THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. FORCING THE ATTENDANT DEVELOPING COLD FRONT SEWD INTO OUR REGION BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
1256 PM EDT THU APR 9 2015 CLOUDY AND SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE A STRONG WARM FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT WITH RAIN.
THE H5 RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN DOMINATING THE GULF OF MEXICO REGION FINALLY FLATTENS DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS AS A TROUGH SWEEPS ACROSS THE US. THE COLD FRONT BEING DRAWN SOUTHWARD BY THE PASSING MIDLEVEL TROUGH WILL SLOW DOWN AND STALL JUST TO THE NORTH OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.
/ISSUED 345 AM EDT THU APR 9 2015/ MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TODAY. AND TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE LOW/MID 80S EAST AND THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S INTERIOR AND WEST. AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EASTWARD.
WITH HIGH PRESSURE ENTERING THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE LOWER 30S BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY. JUST A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN EARLIER FORECAST HIGHS BUT A GOOD RECOVERY.
THE 8 AM REGIONAL SURFACE ANALYSIS AND UPPER AIR DATA SHOWED A DEEP LAYER RIDGE OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST.
WITH ANTICIPATED SOLAR TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A BIT WARMER. COLUMN COLDER BUT SOME CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP MINIMUM TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF FREEZING. UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST FRIDAY SO ANY LINGERING PCPN SHOULD BE DONE BY AFTERNOON. HIGH SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST FRIDAY NIGHT SETTING UP RETURN FLOW AND INCREASING WARM ADVECTION WHICH SHOULD KEEP MINIMUMS WARMER.
715 AM CDT THU APR 9 2015 PRECIPITATION IS ON THE WANE AS A RIDGE SLIDES ALONG FRONT RANGE AND LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA FRIDAY.
WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP THE LOW CLOUDS AWAY BUT WILL NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH TO CREATE ANY CANYON WINDS GREATER THAN 25 MPH. FREEZE WARNING IN THE ANTELOPE VLY MAY BE A LITTLE OVERDONE BUT ALL THE DEW POINTS ARE IN THE UPPER 20S AND THE WINDS JUST WENT CALM SO THERE COULD WELL BE A QUICK DROP TO FREEZING AROUND DAWN. A LITTLE WARMER INLAND DUE TO THE HIGHER HGTS BUT COOLER ACROSS THE COASTS AND VLYS WITH THE RETURN OF ONSHORE FLOW.
819 AM MDT THU APR 9 2015 DROPPED FREEZE WARNING SINCE TEMPERATURES IN THE AFFECTED VALLEYS HAVE INCREASED ABOVE FREEZING. A NORTH FLOW HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE AREA AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVED EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE EARLY THIS MORNING. THE PHASE IS MOSTLY SNOW WITH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CO VALLEYS HOVERING NEAR FREEZING AND SLOWLY COOLING. DAYLIGHT WILL BRING A MORE RAPID DOWNTURN AS A QUICK RIDGE APPROACHES. KMTJ AND KAIB ARE APPROACHING THE FREEZING MARK.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL LEAD TO MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS TODAY WITH PERHAPS A SPOTTY SHOWER DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE AFTERNOON.
A COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND EXPECT SHRA/TSRA ALONG AND BEHIND IT AND HAVE MENTIONED VCSH AT KAUS/KSAT. NWLY 4 TO 8 KTS BEHIND THE DRYLINE AND NELY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
LOW CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT DROPS IN WITH WINDS BECOMING NORTHEAST. THERE IS ALSO A COLD FRONT POISED IN NORTH DAKOTA TO PUSH QUICKLY THROUGH THE CWA LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING. SHOULD START TO SEE A LAYER OF STRATUS WORKING DOWN INTO THE STATE OUT AHEAD OF THE NEXT CLIPPER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE /OVER B. ADDITIONAL LOW PRESSURE ENERGY /OVER THE SWRN U. AND MODELS SEEM TO THINK THAT THESE TWO SYSTEMS WILL MERGE INTO ONE LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BEFORE TRACKING OFF TOWARD THE EAST COAST.
THE LOW LEVEL MOISTENING WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING FROM SW TO NE. WITH DEW POINTS MODIFYING BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 50 ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA BY AFTERNOON. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS OF THE CWA MIDDAY SUNDAY. WITH THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT ARRIVING LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND AUSTIN AREA. LOW AND MID LEVEL FLOW TURNS WEST WITH THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH SUNDAY.
A QUICK TRANSITION WILL TAKE PLACE ON SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW AS A TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. HAVE RAISED POPS CLOSER TO 100 FOR SUNDAY AS A FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH.
SFC/LOW LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR WILL RULE THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
1105 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015 WIDESPREAD RAIN LOOKS TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE GREAT BASIN. LOCAL AMDAR/ACARS DATA ALSO DEPICT A WARM NOSE WITHIN THE LOWEST SEVERAL THOUSAND FEET. TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL INTO THE LOW-MID 30S IN THESE LOCATIONS. /ISSUED 244 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015/ PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL RAMP UP THIS EVENING AS EXPECTED WITH THE UPPER LOW TO THE WEST PUMPING UP THE MOISTURE INTO WEST TEXAS. CURRENT SHORT WAVE RIDGING HAS MADE IT DIFFICULT FOR THE COLUMN TO COMPLETELY SATURATE ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS OFF THE CAPROCK. IT IS DIFFICULT TO SEE SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL OR FREEZING PRECIPITATION. AN UPPER TROUGH PASSING JUST NORTH EARLY SUNDAY ALONG WITH A COLD FRONTAL SURGE.
THE PRECIP SHOULD ALSO SHUT OFF FASTER SUNDAY AS THE ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT DRIES OUT THE LOWER LEVELS.
LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE AWAY TO THE SOUTHEAST ON SATURDAY.
PLACING OUR REGION IN A MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW REGIME AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW NOW OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. WHILE THE PRIMARY UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN TO OUR WEST NEAR BAJA CA THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. BUT THE UPPER LOW (AND ASSOCIATED LIFT) TO OUR SW WILL EVENTUALLY EJECT EASTWARD AND SKIRT CENTRAL TEXAS LATE TUE THROUGH WED.
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE TRENDS INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED ALONG THE WEST COAST THIS EVENING. SOME HIGH CLOUDS ARE BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. /ISSUED 309 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015/ HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE MIDSOUTH TONIGHT. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST ALLOWING WINDS TO TURN AROUND TO THE SOUTH. THIS WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO GET INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S IN MUCH OF THE AREA EVEN WITH AN EXPECTED INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL TRACK FROM EASTERN OKLAHOMA INTO THE OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S WHILE HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE 50S.
1246 AM EST SAT JAN 31 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THROUGH SATURDAY.
421 AM EST SAT JAN 31 2015 HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TODAY FOR A COLD AND CLEAR SKY DAY.
359 AM EST SAT JAN 31 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA TODAY KEEPING CONDITIONS DRY.
To go along with the warmer solution on Sunday, the models have increased rainfall closer to an inch in the south, with 1/2" to 2/3" in the northeast. However, any left over puddles on roadways may freeze later Sunday night as temps fall back below freezing.
/ISSUED 417 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015/ LATEST UPPER AIR ANALYSIS/WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A DEPARTING UPPER TROF OVER THE ERN CONUS. WITH AN UPSTREAM TROF OVER THE WRN CONUS. AND RIDGING IN BETWEEN FROM THE WRN GOMEX INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY. COOLER AND DRIER AIR ACROSS THE REGION TODAY IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT THAT PASSED THROUGH LAST NIGHT. DRY WEATHER EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY AS THE RIDGING SLIDES EASTWARD. THOUGH PACIFIC MSTR WILL BEGIN TO INVADE AS THE UPPER RIDGE GRADUALLY FLATTENS. A NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WILL EFFECTIVELY CUT OFF THE BAJA TROF. AND RESULT IN A COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT.
433 AM EST SAT JAN 31 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL DEPART EASTERN NEW ENGLAND AND GIVE WAY TO HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES TONIGHT AND THEN OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY.
THE UPPER RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA WILL HELP THE DRY AND MILD WEATHER LINGER OVER THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY.