Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
215 AM CST Mon Feb 22 2021 Dry weather and plenty of sunshine is in store for today as high pressure moves across the southern Plains into the western Gulf Coast region. Therefore, have raised temperatures above the NBM/blended model guidance with highs generally topping out in the low to mid 50s area-wide.
QPF also looks on the light side with the highest storm totals up to near 0.
Temperatures will be steady as cooler air spreads back into the area.
1040 PM MST Sun Feb 21 2021 Upper level analysis shows a trough over the central states, and ridges over the coasts.
The National Blend of Models has significantly underforecast the high temperatures the last couple of days, and that was even when we had a significant snowpack through much of the area.
Near the surface, a weak area of high pressure is drifting east through north Texas. A prevailing westerly downslope flow in the lower levels will reinforce an already relatively dry air mass throughout the high plains of western Kansas, resulting in persistent dry conditions today into tonight. As for temperatures, the aforementioned westerly downslope flow will pull warmer air into western Kansas, pushing H85 temperatures up into the mid single digits(C) in central Kansas to near 10C near and along the Colorado border in southwest Kansas. Under ample sunshine, highs are expected to push the lower/mid 60s(F) this afternoon.
VFR conditions will prevail across the region as high pressure builds into the region in the wake of a weak cold front.
1022 PM CST Sun Feb 21 2021 Satellite imagery this afternoon shows the midlevel low pressure continuing to spin in north central IA, sliding off to the east. Cooler temperatures are anticipated in areas that received fresh snowfall today. Expect highs in the upper 30s to lower 40s east of I-29 up to the lower 50s west of the MO River. Increasing flow aloft as well as a tight pressure gradient with low pressure working east, winds look to increase through the day and become strong in the afternoon. We'll see a couple of mid level waves and upper troughs swing through the Northern Plains given the predominately westerly flow.
243 AM CST Mon Feb 22 2021 Base of the upper trough axis pushing through the region this morning, ushering a swath of high clouds towards central Kansas later today. The sun returns, commencing a quick warm up as low level flow backs to the west, advecting warmer downslope flow towards central and eastern Kansas. Warmest air resides closer to central KS where highs edge into the lower 60s.
940 PM MST Sun Feb 21 2021 We have added Southwestern Yellowstone County to the High Wind Warnings through Monday at 6 PM. Atmosphere looks potentially unstable enough for some of the ridges and peaks of the northern zones to hit 60 to 65 mph gusts. Have gone ahead and upgraded the High Wind Watch to a High Wind Warning for Custer and Fallon counties.
357 AM EST Mon Feb 22 2021 A crossing cold front will support widespread rain and snow today. A warm up is then anticipated before an interruption by a midweek trough. Models are indicating that there will be enough warming in the lower levels to allow for most of the precipitation to end as rain before exiting to the east this afternoon. This warm advection likely will not be strong enough to reach the northeastern corner of the forecast area or the ridge tops. Hires model data is hinting that 1 inch an hour snowfall rates are possible in the northeast and on the ridge tops right around dawn and will continue for an hour or two.
902 PM MST Sun Feb 21 2021 High pressure will bring a warming and drying trend through Monday.
112 AM EST Mon Feb 22 2021 A weak cold front will move through late Monday, followed by high pressure. Surface analysis shows that the inland high continues to hold strong while the coastal trough takes shape just offshore. However, surface pressures are on the decline so the high is certainly weakening. As it does, the coastal trough will get closer to shore through sunrise. Low-level warm advection preceding the cold front should push temps into the upper 60s to lower 70s on Monday.
Behind the front, afternoon highs will be a bit cooler than we enjoyed today, but a far cry from the bitter cold snap of last week. High pressure ridging prevails across the area this afternoon, but a short wave and associated cold front are poised to move through overnight. High pressure will quickly build back in on Monday, with clearing skies and cooler high temperatures around 50 in the north, to near 60 in the south.
However, areas that received the heavier snowfall over the weekend may remain cooler than otherwise expected.
248 AM CST Mon Feb 22 2021 A progressive WNW mid level flow pattern will prevail, with high pressure passing south of the region.
This is giving us clear skies this morning which has or will allow our temperatures to dip below freezing once again. The first part of this week will continue to see the 850mb thermal ridge expand across the region which will translate to temperatures continuing to warm through tomorrow.
954 PM PST Sun Feb 21 2021 A storm system will bring windy weather, warmer temperatures and heavy mountain snow to the Inland Northwest today into Monday night.
/issued 345 AM CST Mon Feb 22 2021/ WV imagery shows the upper trough right over West Texas and Southeast New Mexico as it digs ESE through the region, but not having an effect on clear skies/light winds closer to home. Yesterday's cold front didn't have much of an effect either, other than a wind shift, as afternoon temperatures climbed to AOA normal most locations. NW flow aloft will transition to zonal by Tuesday, and SW sfc flow will increase even more in response to leeside troughing on the Front Range. Unfortunately, a cold front will drop into the area late Tuesday night, courtesy of a fast-moving trough traversing the upper CONUS.
A short period of snow is expected over Southwest MT tonight, as a cold front moves through the region.
Looks like the low level thermal turbulence should extend up to around 7000 AMSL this afternoon. This will create a wind field reminiscent of a cold front but on a much smaller scale. During the day the low will track eastward through the OK/TX Panhandles and deepen. Along with winds the low will advect dry and warm continental air into the area.
the surface anticyclone will quickly approach the coast this afternoon/evening, then enter the NW Gulf of Mexico tonight/Tuesday. Thus, slightly warmer today. Near surface moisture notwithstanding, cooler tonight given less moisture in the atmospheric column. Warmer Tuesday.
A warm front continues to slide through the eastern Dakotas early this morning with low pressure centered to our northeast.
235 AM PST Mon Feb 22 2021 High pressure will bring generally light winds and mild temperatures today and Tuesday.
403 AM CST Mon Feb 22 2021 Quiet and cool conditions tonight as the high pressure builds over the area. Low temperatures Tuesday will be just as cold with temps in the low/mid 40s in the southern areas and upper 30s in the northern areas. Warming trend should continue through short term period as southernly winds bring warmer air into the area.
345 AM CST Mon Feb 22 2021 WV imagery shows the upper trough right over West Texas and Southeast New Mexico as it digs ESE through the region, but not having an effect on clear skies/light winds closer to home. Yesterday's cold front didn't have much of an effect either, other than a wind shift, as afternoon temperatures climbed to AOA normal most locations. NW flow aloft will transition to zonal by Tuesday, and SW sfc flow will increase even more in response to leeside troughing on the Front Range. Unfortunately, a cold front will drop into the area late Tuesday night, courtesy of a fast-moving trough traversing the upper CONUS.
513 AM CST Mon Feb 22 2021 A cold front moved through the area overnight and left the area with VFR conditions and light northerly winds. A cold front is making its final push through the area early this morning as skies clear behind it.
High pressure building off the North Coast will lead to a period of drier weather expected to last through much of the week. A large upper high is forecast to build over the E Pacific and slowly retrograde.
Plenty of solar insolation today along with gusty southwest winds will result in warmer high temperatures, about 5 degrees above normal. Even warmer highs are expected on Tuesday as upper level heights rise with a relatively flat upper level ridge shifting eastward into the central US.
Predawn temps ranged fm the lower 30s to the mid 40s. The warming trend wl cont on Tue as the high heads to the E and winds turn Sly.
Given our recent weeks of anomalously cold weather, have strayed from the bias corrected NBM and gone with a warmer consensus of non-bias corrected blends for temperatures. Given these notable downslope winds, mostly clear skies, and recent guidance cold biases, have gone with the high end of non-bias corrected blends for Tuesday, with many locations expected to reach the lower 70s. This short wave trough is expected to dive southeast across western British Columbia and into the Pacific Northwest by Tuesday night.
The strong winds at the ridgetops will mostly maintain dry, downsloping winds within area valleys and limit precipitation. Later this evening, a powerful cold front will move across the region from the northwest, further intensifying surfaces and creating some intense bursts of snow down to valley elevations.
Upper level analysis places trough through the midwest with ridge over the Pacific coast. Further south in warmer air a rain/snow mix is anticipated.
/issued 403 AM CST Mon Feb 22 2021/ Quiet and cool conditions tonight as the high pressure builds over the area. Low temperatures Tuesday will be just as cold with temps in the low/mid 40s in the southern areas and upper 30s in the northern areas. Warming trend should continue through short term period as southernly winds bring warmer air into the area.
While a stream of moisture can be seen lifting ahead of the trough on water vapor satellite imagery, meager forcing is managing to only squeeze out light precip rates with showers along the front moving across our forecast area this morning. Temperatures are still expected to warm into the mid-50s to mid- 60s this afternoon, with clearing skies as the trough axis moves east. Min temp forecast for tonight are on the low end of guidance, and put most locations at or around freezing.
524 AM EST Mon Feb 22 2021 Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb trough over the upper Great Lakes this morning which will quickly move out of the area.
With an upper level ridge nudging in from the west, and weak offshore flow, clearing skies are bringing some fog to the inland west side valleys of Oregon. Another weak front will move into the region today, but precipitation will take a while to reach the surface in other than the very northern portions of the forecast area until late afternoon with the morning sounding at Medford indicating a very dry layer at the ridge levels and a bit above that. This front is showing precipitation down to almost the state line, but with a lack of a strong kicker or upper level dynamics the highest amounts will be in the Cascades and the coastal ranges, with little spilling over to the east side.
300 AM PST Mon Feb 22 2021 Warm and dry weather continues early this week with cooler weather expected the second half of the week.
Temperatures fluctuate between at and above normal levels before dropping into a much cooler regime this weekend. Later this afternoon as temperatures between the surface and 850mb rise above freezing, a flurry/sprinkle mix is possible through much of the CWA, which should turn back to light snow after sunset. This low, while not particularly deep, looks to develop an impressive TROWAL type feature and significant frontogenesis.
High pressure will bring a warming and drying trend to the region today.
835 AM EST Mon Feb 22 2021 Area rain and snow will diminish today with an exiting low pressure system.
357 AM MST Mon Feb 22 2021 High pressure persists and extends from the West Coast through the Four Corners, as a deep low pressure cell pushes towards the Great Lakes. Peak wind gusts along the higher peaks range from the low 80s. However, the high wind warnings might need to be extended eastward depending on how the later model runs shape up.
222 AM MST Mon Feb 22 2021 MORNING DISCUSSION: Synoptic Setup: forecast begins with a rapidly collapsing chinook ridge over the High Plains of Montana. Behind this is semi-zonal flow over the Pacific Northwest and a pacific trough off the coast of British Columbia. Multiple ridge trough couplets sit behind it over the northeast Pacific. At the edges of the chinook Wind looks just good enough to pass criteria, and therefore the rest of the High Wind Watch was finally transfered over to Warnings. The front associated with this will have a limited area between the rain and snow lines with no ice aloft and this should lead to freezing drizzle and freezing fog in the transition zone.
Base of the upper trough axis pushing through the region this morning, ushering a swath of high clouds towards central Kansas later today. The sun returns, commencing a quick warm up as low level flow backs to the west, advecting warmer downslope flow towards central and eastern Kansas. Warmest air resides closer to central KS where highs edge into the lower 60s.
High pressure will to build into the region during the afternoon bringing a period of dry weather to the Mid-South.
515 AM CST Mon Feb 22 2021 Some MVFR LIFR conditions ahead of a cold front that is past all terminals except LFT and ARA. /issued 317 AM CST Mon Feb 22 2021/ A weak cold front is working its way through our region, with a band of showers seen early this morning via radar across central Louisiana. Even though we have a cold front passage, temperatures will be quite mild behind it, as highs should be in the 60s this afternoon. High pressure will be over us Tuesday, keeping us dry.
and Tuesday Light snow will continue to wind down early this morning as a low pressure system exits off to the east. The boundary layer will initially be above freezing, with a mix of snow or drizzle possible later this afternoon as highs rise into the middle to upper 30s. Although the atmosphere will cool later tonight, moisture will be fairly meager across the region with a mix of light snow or freezing drizzle possible from Wausau and Sturgeon Bay north towards the Michigan border as temperatures fall into the middle to upper 20s across this region, with lows around 30 farther south. Any snowfall accumulation tonight will be fairly light, on the order of a dusting, with snowfall amounts being cut if more freezing drizzle occurs.
Somewhat cooler highs in the 40s are likely further east along and east of the I-29 corridor. Nevertheless, expect snow to be melting quickly today, especially given dew points near freezing.
This will create a wind field reminiscent of a cold front but on a much smaller scale. During the day the low will track eastward through the OK/TX Panhandles and deepen. Along with winds the low will advect dry and warm continental air into the area.
SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday): Some patchy fog has developed across portions of the CWA early this morning ahead of the approaching weak cold front. The weak cold front will move through the Rio Grande Valley later this morning with fog lifting and rain chances ending from west to east. Slightly cooler air will filter into deep south Texas this afternoon. Mild and breezy conditions are expected today with highs reaching the low to mid 70s across much of the area. Lows tonight will fall into the 40s across the northern Ranchlands and into the low to mid 50 across the Rio Grande Valley and along the coast.
Look for warmer temperatures today and Tuesday with mostly clear skies and light winds as a mild airmass moves across Arizona.
317 AM CST Mon Feb 22 2021 A weak cold front is working its way through our region, with a band of showers seen early this morning via radar across central Louisiana. Even though we have a cold front passage, temperatures will be quite mild behind it, as highs should be in the 60s this afternoon. High pressure will be over us Tuesday, keeping us dry.
Quiet and warmer weather is here to stay for the next couple days. We're finally under a different regime, one which will bring warmer temperatures today and tomorrow. Tomorrow will be even warmer still and with decent snow melting expected today, we could see upper 40s to even some lower 50s for south central NE, and 60s for north central KS.
Light and variable winds will prevail tonight as high pressure settles across the area. /issued 349 AM CST Mon Feb 22 2021/ SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday): Some patchy fog has developed across portions of the CWA early this morning ahead of the approaching weak cold front. The weak cold front will move through the Rio Grande Valley later this morning with fog lifting and rain chances ending from west to east. Slightly cooler air will filter into deep south Texas this afternoon. Mild and breezy conditions are expected today with highs reaching the low to mid 70s across much of the area. Lows tonight will fall into the 40s across the northern Ranchlands and into the low to mid 50 across the Rio Grande Valley and along the coast.
The low level winds and pressure fields point to downsloping winds today and much of tonight. Moisture is limited on the cross sections today and tonight and the QPF fields have a tiny bit of measurable snowfall in the high mountains today. Will go with with "slight chance"s for snow in the high mountains this morning, then dry over all areas through tonight.
This is giving us clear skies this morning which has or will allow our temperatures to dip below freezing once again. The first part of this week will continue to see the 850mb thermal ridge expand across the region which will translate to temperatures continuing to warm through tomorrow. With the snowpack all but gone for most there should be little to no resistance for temperatures to increase under the aforementioned thermal ridge and southwesterly downslope flow and associated compressional warming.
High pressure continues across the region, bringing quieter weather to all locations for the start of the work week week.
/Today through Tuesday Night/ An upper trough axis will continue to move southeast across the region today. At the surface, a cold front and associated showers should be exiting the forecast area to the east and southeast. Most locations will be a few degrees cooler today compared to yesterday, but overall, temperatures will continue to moderate with highs today ranging from the upper 50s to lower 60s.
The latest RAP40 500 mb analysis in combo with mid-level water vapor satellite loop shows the the CWA under NW flow aloft with this morning's trough continuing a trek eastward into the Midwest region. Upper level ridge over the western portion of the country giving the Tri State region its northwest flow aloft, will remain in place tonight going into Monday, but the trend through Tuesday night has latest model runs showing upper ridge breaking down allowing for zonal flow to encompass the CWA. Down to the surface, high pressure to our west will shift down south of the region overnight on the latest HRRR. Surface/850 mb trough works south along the Front Range going into Tuesday.
548 AM CST Mon Feb 22 2021 For the 22/12z TAFs, a cold front and associated cloud cover continue to exit to the southeast allowing clear skies to prevail at all terminals. /Today through Tuesday Night/ An upper trough axis will continue to move southeast across the region today. At the surface, a cold front and associated showers should be exiting the forecast area to the east and southeast. Most locations will be a few degrees cooler today compared to yesterday, but overall, temperatures will continue to moderate with highs today ranging from the upper 50s to lower 60s.
12Z TAF discussion: As a cold front moves across the region today, a period of MVFR or lower ceilings and brief reductions in visibility with SHRA can be expected. While a stream of moisture can be seen lifting ahead of the trough on water vapor satellite imagery, meager forcing is managing to only squeeze out light precip rates with showers along the front moving across our forecast area this morning. Temperatures are still expected to warm into the mid-50s to mid- 60s this afternoon, with clearing skies as the trough axis moves east. Min temp forecast for tonight are on the low end of guidance, and put most locations at or around freezing.
246 AM MST Mon Feb 22 2021 High pressure persists and extends from the West Coast through the Four Corners, as a deep low pressure cell pushes towards the Great Lakes. Peak wind gusts along the higher peaks range from the low 80s. However, the high wind warnings might need to be extended eastward depending on how the later model runs shape up.
However, areas that received the heavier snowfall over the weekend may remain cooler than otherwise expected. Mid/high clouds will stream across the region in the warm advection regime ahead of the trough, but highs still look to be in the mid 30s to mid 40s for most areas. High pressure will build back over the region for mid to late week with a slight dip in temps.
Dry weather and plenty of sunshine is in store for today as high pressure moves across the southern Plains into the western Gulf Coast region. Therefore, have raised temperatures above the NBM/blended model guidance with highs generally topping out in the low to mid 50s area-wide.
446 AM CST Mon Feb 22 2021 Quiet and warmer weather is here to stay for the next couple days. We're finally under a different regime, one which will bring warmer temperatures today and tomorrow. Tomorrow will be even warmer still and with decent snow melting expected today, we could see upper 40s to even some lower 50s for south central NE, and 60s for north central KS.
431 AM EST Mon Feb 22 2021 Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb trough over the upper Great Lakes this morning which will quickly move out of the area.
Discussion: Much warmer temperatures arrive today and continue into tomorrow as high temperatures climb 5 to 15 degrees above normal. This will result in temperatures running 5 to 10 degrees cooler than areas further south where very little snow remains. Fair weather and warmer temperatures will be a nice break from the cold temperatures of weeks past. Tuesday will be even warmer with some locations reaching for the lower 60s.
1020 AM EST Mon Feb 22 2021 Temperatures are rising through the 70s this morning with a good bit of sunshine across the Keys (particularly for the Lower Keys). Deep layer, synoptic scale ridging remains in place, centered to our northeast (near Bermuda) in the low-levels (925-700mb) with mid- to upper-level ridging centered over the Caribbean to our south. E-SE this morning, becoming SE-S this evening into the overnight, then a quick NW-N shift tomorrow as a weak cold front moves through the region. Gusty E-SE winds will gradually decrease, veering SE-S tonight before shifting northwest tomorrow morning as a weak cold front moves through the area, finally ending low chance potential for showers.
1255 PM EST Mon Feb 22 2021 Area rain and snow will diminish today with an exiting low pressure system.
High pressure will bring a short break before a weak Clipper moves across on Tuesday.
1035 AM EST Mon Feb 22 2021 Currently, clouds are increasing ahead of an approaching cold front with partly to mostly cloudy skies seen on satellite imagery. The surface analysis chart shows high pressure situated over the western Atlantic. A cold front is located over eastern TN - stretching into northern GA and eastern MS. The forecast is on track with a mostly dry day before a cold front sweeps into the area this evening and into the overnight hours. Highs are forecast to reach the low 80s with winds 5-15mph out of the south-southeast. MVFR ceilings will move in ahead of a cold front this evening and persist through the rest of the TAF period. A cold front will approach the area early this evening and move across the waters tonight.