Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
With continued feed of low level moisture over the cooler surface air mass, improving conditions will only slowly occur today. This will continue through the morning hours, although models are suggesting that the warmer air just above the surface will begin to erode the cooler surface air mass. Some breakup of the low clouds will be possible across the western half of the area for the afternoon. Temperatures will be warmer across all of the area, with the warmest conditions across those western areas that may see a little afternoon sun. Models have some differences in whether the low clouds persist into tonight, or even redevelop a little bit farther to the west. Better low level moisture in place areawide will lead to warmer overnight temperatures.
Went ahead and added the eastern Platte zone to the High Wind Warning.
643 AM EST Sat Feb 4 2017 High pressure will bring dry conditions and below normal temperatures today.
433 AM MST Sat Feb 4 2017 Latest upper air analysis depicts nearly zonal flow across the CONUS, with a subtle short wave trough moving onto the Plains. At the surface a warm front was beginning to progress east across the Tri-State Area as winds shifted from south to west. Today the warm front will be east of the Tri-State Area before mid morning. Highs today will much warmer than yesterday, nearing record values for Goodland and Burlington.
A weak cold front will move through the region on Sunday keeping below normal temperatures in place.
423 AM PST Sat Feb 4 2017 A weak low pressure system moving inland across Southern California will bring a few light showers this morning along and west of the mountains. Dry and a little warmer for Sunday under weak high pressure.
Much warmer and windier today. Over the mountains, weak wave was pushing light snow toward the Continental Divide as of 11z, and expect occasional snow showers through today over mainly the central mountains, with some local accums of an inch or two over the higher peaks. Brisk westerly flow aloft through the day, then shifting to the southwest as the next upper trough nears the West Coast. Dry, with max temps climbing into the 40s and 50s for the high valleys, and upper 50s to lower 60s for the eastern plains.
505 AM EST Sat Feb 4 2017 High pressure will cross the region today then move east tonight.
Winds have already turned southerly across all of eastern Nebraska and southwest Iowa this morning as high pressure had shifted well to our southeast.
Despite more widespread warm air advection and modest isentropic lift on the 285K surface, areas farther south and west are too dry in the low-mid levels for precipitation. Removed all mention of freezing drizzle later tonight as guidance now suggests that precipitation will end before loss of ice in the cloud. Temperatures today will be noticeably warmer compared to yesterday, topping out in the mid 20s to mid 30s.
1039 AM EST Sat Feb 4 2017 Canadian high pressure will build into and over the region through today. The high will move out to sea tonight as a trough of low pressure develops along the Mid Atlantic coast into Sunday. A dry cold front crosses the area Sunday night.
1027 AM EST Sat Feb 4 2017 High pressure will begin retreating to the east today, allowing southerly flow and warming temperatures on the back side of the high.
An upper level blocking pattern was in place across the central North Pacific. This was resulting in a split flow flow entering the west coast - mainly rounding upper ridging situated over Alaska, and south of a low west of Vancouver. Another upper low further to the south near 35N150W was progressing eastward towards the California coast. Average highs for today are around 53, so a tad cooler than seasonable norms. With a southerly flow, lows will be warmer - into the upper 30s and around 40.
While high pressure will still be exerting its influence to start the day, a frontal system from the Plains will quickly push into the area by tonight. However, condensation pressure deficits remain high, and forecast soundings also suggest at least the low to mid levels of the atmosphere remaining fairly dry.
1010 AM EST Sat Feb 4 2017 Hydro Low pressure will track north of Lower Michigan tonight bringing light snow into early Sunday.
Upper air analysis last evening showed a low amplitude ridge over northern Mexico and Texas. At the surface, high pressure was centered to the northeast and winds were generally from the east through northeast across our CWA.
536 AM EST Sat Feb 4 2017 Upstream cloud cover associated with the southwestward moving lee trough has decreased considerably over the past several hours. Zonal flow will prevail aloft today, while the main low-level ridge center will slide from the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys into the Mid- Atlantic. As the ridge moves east, northeast flow will become established down the Eastern Seaboard and will force a lee trough through the Tri-State region today. Low-clouds are expected along and ahead of the trough axis this morning, followed by low clouds filling in from the southeast as low-level transport shifts southeast over yesterday's frontal boundary. Expect highs to range from the upper 50s to low 60s across Georgia and Alabama, to the low to mid 60s across north Florida.
534 AM CST Sat Feb 4 2017 As high pressure continues to translate eastward away from the area and low pressure deepens across the Central Plains, breezy southwest winds will develop across much of the area today. Low clouds may dampen the diurnal rise but temperatures are still expected to rise well above normal for early Feb with highs ranging from around 50 in extreme Southeast KS to the low 60s over Central KS.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 50 37 55 42 / 0 20 20 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 46 34 52 38 / 0 10 10 10 Oak Ridge, TN 47 34 52 39 / 0 10 10 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 44 27 49 34 / 0 10 10 10.
Weak ridging will take place over the Great Basin and Central Rockies tonight and bring drier conditions to the mountains. Models have been too quick to flush out the low clouds and fog so will keep some in the forecast through mid morning from Greeley to Sterling. Highs will be much warmer today over northeast Colorado with most locations reaching the 50s. There is flat upper ridging and strong zonal flow aloft for the CWA on Sunday.
645 AM EST Sat Feb 4 2017 Canadian high pressure will build into and over the region through today. The high will move out to sea tonight as a trough of low pressure develops along the Mid Atlantic coast into Sunday. A dry cold front crosses the area Sunday night.
628 AM EST Sat Feb 4 2017 Aviation Low pressure will track north of Lower Michigan tonight bringing light snow into early Sunday.
Synoptic Setup: Short term begins with the high plains of the CONUS in a zonal flow pattern with relatively warmer air. Upstream, flow over British Columbia becomes a trough which dips off the coast into a low. Over the Pacific Northwest a meso-ridge has formed in response.
955 AM EST Sat Feb 4 2017 Cold front has worked its way south of the I-4 Corridor. Tight pgrad behind the front due to a strong high pres ridge building over the Mid Atlc coast. Latest analysis shows the cold front pushing south of Cape Canaveral as of mid mrng with the advertised wind surge working its way into the lcl Atlc.
This AM, we have a high pressure ridge over Eastern Conus with only high cirrus to note on satellite and only light winds and much cooler temperatures to note. Looking for mostly sunny skies today as ridging remains over the area for the most part, but the ridge center does shift toward the Atlantic Seaboard by this evening. This will set us up for low level return flow tonight around the retreating ridge, moisture advection, and isentropic lift to yield some late night rain showers across generally the northwest half of the state after midnight tonight. Look for warmer, but still cool readings tonight with dew points rising, cloudiness increasing, etc ahead of the shower activity. Some light rain showers will be possible due to isentropic lift on Sunday ahead of a weak trough building in the Rockies.
These gusty winds will persist through the morning hours over eastern areas, ahead of an approaching cold front. Warmer temperatures will also surge northward into the eastern CWA today, and have already seen temps rising through the overnight hours. By later this morning, cold front will already be making progress into central SD with cold air advection setting in. Therefore, highs over north-central SD will be coolest today as the rest of the CWA warms into the low to mid 30s.
THICKNESS HEIGHTS LOWER WITH 850MB TEMPS (12 TO 15DEG) IN ADDITION TO THE CLOUD DECK WILL EXPECT TEMPS TO WARM UP INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE ARE TODAY. LOW TEMPS WILL RANGE BETWEEN THE LOW TO MID 60S AND UPPER 50S OVER THE N RANCHLANDS. WEDNESDAY RIDGE BUILDS WITH MUCH DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA. DEW POINTS LOWER INTO THE LOW 40S AND 50S NEAR THE COAST WITH MINIMUM RH VALUES TO REACH THE LOWER 20S OUT WEST AND 30 PERCENT NEAR THE COAST.
STRONG UPPER RIDGING WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE AREA THROUGH WED NIGHT. WITH WEAK ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE RIDGE.
THE STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA BEGINNING WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH A POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS AND A RISK OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES.
734 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016 WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL DROP INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THE LOW WILL MOVE INTO OHIO WEDNESDAY DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ALONG WITH IT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL FADE THIS EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THE LOW SHOULD BE OVER CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN BY 12Z WED. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING THE DAY.
721 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016 AVIATION A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN TONIGHT. MUCH COOLER AIR WILL FLOW OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH THE MID 50S.
BKN-OVC050 CIGS WILL BECOME SCT-BKN IN NATURE THIS AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS PASSES OVERHEAD.
AN OMEGA BLOCKING PATTERN HAS SET UP FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND ACROSS THE U. AN ELONGATED HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE HAS SHIFTED EASTWARD. MOISTURE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY MAKE ITS WAY EASTWARD AND BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG THE CASCADE RANGE AND AS FAR EAST AS BICKLETON. WITH NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN AND THE YAKIMA VALLEY.
STRONG UPPER RIDGE HOLDS ITS POSITION OVER THE AREA PROVIDING DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE WAS SETTING UP OVER THE WRN CONUS. HIGH PRES WAS BUILDING IN BEHIND A COLD FRONT NOW SITUATED ACRS SERN LA.
/issued 327 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016/ An upper trough extending from the Great Lakes back across the Central Plains this morning will swing south today and tonight. An upper ridge will build in behind this trough and remain over the area the rest of the work week.
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE POSITIVE UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO SWING EASTWARD AS THE UPPER JET'S MOMENTUM EJECTS NORTHEASTWARD. WITH DAYTIME HEATING ADDED IN THIS SHOULD REINVIGORATE THE COLD FRONT ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES MAINLY ALONG THE I-85 CORRIDOR AND FURTHER SOUTH.
THE STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA BEGINNING WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH A POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS AND A RISK OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.
Early this morning a short wave upper level trough was digging southward across western NE into western KS. This short wave trough will dig south-southeast across western OK into northeast TX Tonight. The stronger ascent with this upper trough will remain well west and southwest of the CWA. As the upper trough digs into western OK, skies should begin to clear during the late morning and afternoon hours. AS the Great Lakes upper trough amplifies the flow aloft over eastern KS will become northwesterly. A weak cold front will switch winds to the northwest late tonight. On Wednesday a mid/upper trough over the Great Lakes will continue to amplify and dig over the southeast US.
WATCHING THE TROUGH AXIS TO THE NORTH OVER CENTRAL INDIANA AND SOUTHERN OHIO START TO LIGHT UP WITH SOME LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY. COLD FRONT HAS NOW SLIPPED INTO SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY AND WILL CONTINUE TO SLIP JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE KENTUCKY BY DAYBREAK. FREEZING LEVELS SHOULD BE COMING DOWN WITH THE FRONT. WITH THE FREEZING LEVELS ONLY ABOUT 5. TODAY WILL BE MUCH COOLER AS CLOUDS WILL LIKELY STAY IN PLACE WITH THE TROUGH AXIS. WILL ALSO GO SLIGHTLY WARMER WITH LESS VALLEY/RIDGE DISPARITY FOR TONIGHT WITH ANTICIPATED CLOUD COVER. WE MAY BE ABLE TO WARM UP BRIEFLY BY MIDDAY BEFORE THE COLD FRONT BRINGS FALLING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS ALONG WITH THE RAIN SHOWERS. AS A DEEP UPPER LOW DESCENDS SOUTH OVER KY.
1000 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016 WX MAP SHOWING HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS TX INTO LA. A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE WAS SETTING UP OVER THE WRN CONUS. HIGH PRES WAS BUILDING IN BEHIND A COLD FRONT NOW SITUATED ACRS SERN LA.
Upper low will slide south of us over the next few days.
WE WILL FEEL THE DIFFERENCE WITH SOME DRIER AIR FILTERING INTO THE REGION AND MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES.
1044 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016 STG ZONAL FLOW UNDERNEATH BASE OF UPPER TROUGH. LATE MORNING TEMPS IN THE 60S WILL RISE EASILY TO THE LOWER TO MID 70S THIS AFTN. EXPECT INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT WITH THE ARRIVAL OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST. /ISSUED 419 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016/ A WELCOME CHANGE IN OUR WEATHER PATTERN IS BEGINNING TO TAKE SHAPE AS A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD EWD OVER THE ROCKIES. AN UPPER TROUGH IS SEEN DIVING SWD ACROSS THE PLAINS PER THE LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP. THIS TROUGH WILL QUICKLY TRAVERSE OUR REGION TODAY AND LEAVE DEEP NW FLOW IN ITS WAKE BUT EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE DURING THE DAY BEFORE THE TROUGH PIVOTS EAST OF THE REGION.
HIGH PRESSURE IS FINALLY HERE. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ON TAP WITH SOME CUMULUS OVER RIDGES BUT COVERAGE WILL BE MINIMAL. A FEW SHOWERS MAY ALSO FORM OVER THE HIGHEST PORTIONS OF THE SAN JUANS LATER THIS AFTERNOON BUT BY AND LARGE. SIMILAR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AGAIN WEDNESDAY AS THE HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD.
TRIED TO PAINT THE HIGHEST POPS/QPF IN THIS GENERAL AREA FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE DAY. MODELS ARE IN AVERAGE AGREEMENT IN TAKING A CLOSED LOW SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY ON WED INTO THE SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC BY THURS. LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL BE A PERSISTENT FEATURE WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING WWD INTO THE UPPER OH VALLEY.
STRONG UPPER RIDGE HOLDS ITS POSITION OVER THE AREA PROVIDING DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN PLACE.
Mdls are in fairly good agreement with phasing of the upper trof and pushing swd thru the area today. Have therefore trended aob the cooler guidance for today in these areas. On Wednesday, cold front to exit forecast area with some lingering precipitation over eastern portions of forecast area.
WITH THE STRONGER UPPER DYNAMICS BRINGING IN A COOLER AIRMASS OVER THE AREA.
MID LEVEL FLOW HAS BECOME MORE ZONAL WITH AN UPPER LOW SITUATED NNW OF THE REGION WHILE THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS CENTERS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST OF THE LOCAL FA WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE EAST AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE SE. BY WEDNESDAY AN AMPLIFYING UPPER WAVE TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION WITH A CLOSED UPPER LOW MOVING JUST TO THE NE OF THE FA BY LATE IN THE DAY. WEDNESDAY HIGHS WILL PROVE A BIT WARMER THAN TODAY AS WE LOSE MUCH OF THE CLOUD COVER.
1142 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016 AVIATION A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN TONIGHT. MUCH COOLER AIR WILL FLOW OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH THE MID 50S.
1220 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016 HYDRO A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN TONIGHT. MUCH COOLER AIR WILL FLOW OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH THE MID 50S.
943 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016 WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL DROP INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THE LOW WILL MOVE INTO OHIO WEDNESDAY DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ALONG WITH IT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL FADE THIS EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THE LOW SHOULD BE OVER CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN BY 12Z WED. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING THE DAY.
803 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016 A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
WITH NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE FIRST 2000 FT BECOMING WESTERLY ALOFT THE COLD FRONT HAS ALREADY CROSSED MOST OF THE AREA. AS A DEEP TROUGH DIGS INTO THE SOUTHEAST TEMPERATUES WILL ALSO BE COOLER THAN WE HAVE SEEN RECENTLY AND LIKELY A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL DURING THE DAY. A PERIOD OF EXERCISE CAUTION WINDS AROUND 15 TO 20 KNOTS COULD DEVELOP TONIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH TOMORROW AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR ADVECTS IN FROM THE NORTH.
SUNNY AND WARM WEATHER WILL PREVAIL TODAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND RESULT IN COOLING AND MORE CLOUDS WEDNESDAY.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH THAT A SLOW-MOVING UPPER TROUGH/CLOSED LOW FEATURE WILL IMPACT THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY FOR THE REST OF THE SHORT-TERM PERIOD, WITHIN A BLOCKY, ALTHOUGH SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE LARGE-SCALE REGIME. PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER, ALONG WITH COOL AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW, SHOULD CONTINUE TO PRODUCE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY MAY (DAILY HIGHS IN THE 50S-LOWER 60S). MODELS AGREE THAT A MEAN TROF / BLOCKY PATTERN WILL PERSIST OVER THE NORTHEASTERN U. A CLOSED LOW IS FORECAST TO ROTATE FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TOWARD NEW ENGLAND LATE THIS WEEK.
956 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016 CLOUD COVER ALONG THE INITIAL COLD FRONT LOOKS PRETTY MINIMAL. A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH AS WELL. THE PUSH OF COOLER AIR WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE 60S IN MOST AREAS TODAY. THE DRY AIR AND GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT HAS RAISED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE SETTLES INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL INCH EASTWARD ACROSS THE ROCKIES ON WEDNESDAY.
AMPLIFIED RIDGE ACROSS THE ROCKIES BEGINS TO EXPAND ONTO THE PLAINS. HOWEVER TODAY WILL STILL BE SEASONALLY COOL AS WEAK TROUGH BROUGHT A REINFORCING COOL POCKET OF AIR. THE WARMER AIR IS NOTICED TONIGHT AS LOWS GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE 40S EVEN WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.
NOTICEABLY DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO SPILL INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT CURRENTLY RESIDES ALONG THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST. THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. WITH A COLD FRONT NOW DRAPED ALONG THE GULF COAST. DEWPOINTS WERE STILL IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S FROM MCCOMB TO MERIDIAN. STILL LOOKS LIKE COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL SETTLE INTO THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE NAM CONTINUES TO SHOW CONVECTION WITH THE COLD FRONT THAT PASSES QUICKLY WEDNESDAY. BUT KEPT THE LOWER POPS FOR NOW.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A WARMING TREND THROUGH MIDWEEK. THE NEXT PACIFIC TROUGH WILL ADVANCE INTO THE GREAT BASIN LATE IN THE WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE INTERIOR WEST.
DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE TODAY AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY RESIDES OVER THE MID SOUTH MOVING INTO NORTH GA AND CENTRAL ALABAMA. WITH SHOWERS INCREASING ONCE AGAIN OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH INTERIOR SE GA DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS AND ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA DURING THE EARLY DAYLIGHT HOURS. S-SW FLOW AROUND 15KT TODAY WILL VEER TO SW AND THEN W TONIGHT AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. RIP CURRENTS: S-SW FLOW AROUND 15KT TODAY WILL VEER TO SW AND THEN W TONIGHT AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA.
NW winds will increase some this afternoon behind the trough passage, averaging 15-25 mph across the western zones, with much lighter winds east of Dodge City.
Next chance of rain with a cold front dropping down late tonight looks wetter than before, and have boosted PoPs to higher-end chance and even some likelys for areas mainly east of the MS river after midnight. Mdls are in fairly good agreement with phasing of the upper trof and pushing swd thru the area today. Have therefore trended aob the cooler guidance for today in these areas. On Wednesday, cold front to exit forecast area with some lingering precipitation over eastern portions of forecast area.
UPPER RIDGE IN PLACE TODAY WITH A SURFACE THERMAL TROUGH OVER SOUTHEAST OREGON. THE THERMAL TROUGH WILL DRIVE AN EASTERLY WIND THROUGH THE SNAKE RIVER HELPING TO FURTHER WARM TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE LOWER SNAKE PLAIN. A HIGH-AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL PROVIDE THE REGION WITH CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING. AN UPPER TROUGH IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC WAS SLOWLY APPROACHING THE WEST COAST. THE UPPER RIDGE AND TROUGH. SOUTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND TROUGH WILL RESIDE OVER SE OREGON AND SW IDAHO. HIGHS IN THE LOWER VALLEYS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 80S TODAY AND MID 80S ON WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE NEAR THE LEADING EDGE OF THE TROUGH WILL LEAD TO A SLIGHT CHANCE AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN HARNEY COUNTY. AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SW IDAHO.
THE AXIS OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGH TONIGHT. WE COULD SEE SOME UPPER LIFT MOVE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS. THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL BE WELL EAST OF THE REGION. WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SET TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST.
903 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016 WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY AND THEN WEAKEN AS A LOW PRESSURE CENTER DEVELOPS OVER THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL BE DIGGING AND ELONGATING WITH A N-S AXIS OVER THE IN/OH BORDER. THE LOW WILL STRENGTHEN UNDERNEATH THE UPPER LEVEL STRENGTHENING L/W TROUGH WHICH SHOULD CUTOFF OVER NORTHERN INDIANA IN THE AFTERNOON. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE HARD PRESSED TO GET OUT OF THE LOWER 60S TODAY AND THEN REMAIN IN THE 50S FOR WED AND THURS.
Forecast area remains under the influence of a sheared trof axis aloft, and weakly cyclonic flow at the surface. A piece of energy within the sheared trof is coming through the area at the moment with little fanfare, although there are a few very weak/spotty radar returns. Current upper ridge already in place with high pressure centered over southern Alberta. As the current system over the central Plains and mid-Mississippi Valley drops southward today, it will yield to an upper low that is now in northwest Ontario and is projected to reach Lake Michigan on Wednesday morning.
944 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016 A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY RETURN WEDNESDAY.
AND DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL LOW DROPS OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY.
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE REGION WITH CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS. TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE LOWER 40S AT 2 AM CDT.
/ISSUED 454 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016/ MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR OUT OF SE TX TODAY BUT WE SHOULD SEE THE LAST OF THEM LATE THIS AFTN/EVENING AS THE UPPER RIDGE FINALLY BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. WE SHOULD ALSO BE SEEING CHANGES ALOFT AS THE RIDGE SQUEEZED BE- TWEEN THE TWO BULLSEYE UPPER LOWS ON BOTH COASTS BEGINS TO FLAT- TEN AS THE SYSTEM OUT WEST BEGINS TO MOVE EAST OVER THE WEEKEND. 41 MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING AND MAY GET A NUDGE UP AS 850 COLD FRONT ARRIVES THIS MORNING AND THE HAPHAZARD CAA IN PLACE GETS REINFORCED.
LOW CLOUD DECK IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FOR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES NEAR I-85 CORRIDOR WITH THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY DRIFTING SOUTHWARD. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN FOR ALL COUNTIES ONCE THE EVENING BEGINS AND ARE EXPECTED FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS 92 A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH CENTRAL ALABAMA TODAY AND WILL TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.