Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
424 AM EDT Wed Aug 17 2022 A departing slow moving area of low pressure will bring another round of scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon to the area. The upper low will be moving into the Canadian Maritimes Thursday night, with a trough trailing back across northern New England and eastern New York.
CD Chattanooga Airport, TN 83 67 84 68 82 / 10 20 30 30 60 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 82 64 84 66 84 / 10 10 30 20 60 Oak Ridge, TN 81 64 84 65 82 / 10 10 20 20 50 Tri Cities Airport, TN 79 61 82 61 82 / 30 10 30 10 50.
This CAM signal of more limited coverage today seems reasonable, given the closer proximity of the low-level ridge axis today. This feature will dig southeastward through Thu, likely evolving into a compact closed low on Thu night. Nevertheless, deep moisture, tall/skinny CAPE profiles, and somewhat slow storm motion in the vicinity of the low may support locally heavy rainfall on Sun. Farther ahead, chance PoPs will be carried for Mon and Tue as the upper low/trough slowly meanders eastward. A ridge of high pressure draped over the northern Great Lakes will maintain light and generally offshore winds through Thu. Winds will become southerly on Thu night as an area of low pressure develops over MN.
Cooler temperatures overspread the area the next several days. Locations along and north of the Highway 54 corridor may warm into the low 80s with more sunshine up north.
1243 AM CDT Wed Aug 17 2022 (This evening through Wednesday) An upper level low is currently located west of the Big Bend region and is forecast to continue to move west. Expect overnight low temperatures in the low to mid 70s for most locations.
(Tonight through Thursday Night): Low pressure that moved across the region yesterday (8/15) continues west and is currently centered roughly 100 miles southeast of El Paso this afternoon. Ridging aloft will build south through Texas Wednesday and into Thursday while PWATs gradually decrease.
But upper levels there isnt going to be much around as the 500 mb trough axis shifts a bit more east.
Low clouds and patchy valley fog have developed once again in a persistent low pressure pattern. Dynamics are expected to be weaker today as the parent upper low begins to lift northeast this afternoon. There is some uncertainty on rain coverage, as the trough axis that was set across our mountain foothills during the previous days, completely weakens by the afternoon. Rain activity tapers off by early tonight with patchy valley fog expected late as weak ridging builds across from the west. 500mb heights gradually rise overhead as a low pressure system centered over New England lifts northeast out of the country by the end of the work week.
(Today and tonight) A weak cold front 30 miles north of Haskell and Throckmorton counties at 3 AM CDT will continue to move slowly south today. While upper ridging will suppress most shower and thunderstorm development today, the ridge will be weakening from north to south this later this afternoon and tonight.
The focus this afternoon will be closer to the cold front across southeast Oklahoma into west-central Arkansas. Temperatures are forecast to be considerably cooler across most of the area today with the exception of extreme southeast Oklahoma where temperatures are still forecast to rise into the mid 90s.
Mostly cloudy skies persist across the region with mid and high level clouds rotating through the base of the upper trough. Closed upper low to continue over the NE US with upper trough axis extending SW to the Gulf Coast, providing NW upper flow over our region. Closed upper low over the NE progged to open and lift NE while an upper trough to dig into the N Plains/Upper Midwest and cut off Thu/Fri and slowly shift east across the Great Lakes region Sat through Mon.
233 AM CDT Wed Aug 17 2022 A large ridge of high pressure will bring quiet weather and seasonable temperatures to central and southeast IL through Thursday.
There is another weak trough/front moving into the area Thursday afternoon/night.
210 AM CDT Wed Aug 17 2022 High pressure is found over the region, with light east winds and mostly clear skies. Thursday will be another pleasant day with highs in the lower 80s.
- Precipitation-wise, maintained a mention of generic "patchy drizzle" for several western/southwestern counties through the night where the lowest stratus still remains, but any of this pesky light precip potential has ended for especially our northern/eastern zones where clearing and/or rising cloud heights have occurred. As a result high temperatures will return to the low 80s for most. On Thursday, a deepening upper low will drop out into the Dakotas, pushing a cold front towards the area by Thursday evening. Models continue to indicate potential for scattered showers and thunderstorms along this boundary late Thursday afternoon through the overnight, but it appears the highest chances for rain/storms will remain to our northeast where there is stronger forcing from the upper low.
1214 AM CDT Wed Aug 17 2022 High pressure was in control over the Midwest which has led to comfortable conditions this afternoon with temperatures in the upper 70s to low 80s. Thursday: Another nice day is in store with highs in the lower 80s and comfortable humidity levels. An upper low will temporarily rotate over the area late this week. Once we get to Thursday night, the upper low will begin to develop, as a strong short wave drops into the west side of the mean upper trof (generally through the Dakotas). This will bring lift, and moisture to the region, but with the low persisting for several days, it's difficult to time in any high confidence periods of rainfall.
A cold front continues to move southward across Arkansas. Flight category will deteriorate to MVFR/IFR conds across all terminals as the rain and isolated thunderstorm activity associated w/ the cold front tracks southward across the state into the early morning hours Wednesday. Later this evening, as we lose the heat of the day, upper trough in the plains will shift further southward, and this will push the stalled/quasi-stationary frontal boundary through more of the state. The front will slow down later tonight and into Wednesday as it hits the southeast extent of the upper ridge centered invof west Texas and New Mexico. Precip axis should shift even further south/southwestward on Thursday as the surface boundary shifts toward the Gulf and cooler air works in to northeast Arkansas.
(Today through Thursday) High pressure is building in from the north this morning as the moisture band that brought yesterday's light showers has slipped mostly to our south.
Cooler temperatures are also expected this weekend. Daily scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected each afternoon through Thursday, especially over the higher terrain.
1240 AM CDT Wed Aug 17 2022 A cold front was currently moving through the southern Texas Panhandle and is expected to move through the TAF sites early Wednesday morning. No precip is expected tonight through mid-day tomorrow as the upper ridge continues to remain overhead. Even if there is not precip to be had tomorrow, one plus from the front will be cooler temps with highs ranging in the upper 80s/90s.
Overall moisture in the lowest levels remain lacking though, and with limited forcing in play, do not believe we'll see much of anything make it to the sfc. Otherwise, look for lows to remain fairly mild, as temperatures only fall into the lower 60s. Rain chances return heading into the latter half of the week, as a pronounced upper level low over central Canada dives southeastward across the Northern Plains.
355 AM EDT Wed Aug 17 2022 Periodic showers and perhaps a thunderstorm chances will continue until dry conditions return later in the week with building high pressure. No change in the weather expected today as the low/trough remains near the nern CONUS.
(Today and tonight) A weak cold front 30 miles north of Haskell and Throckmorton counties at 3 AM CDT will continue to move slowly south today. While upper ridging will suppresses most showers and thunderstorms today, the ridge will be weakening from north to south this later this afternoon and tonight.
Other than few/scattered diurnal cumulus later today, plenty of sunshine should be expected across the area as high temperatures reach into the low to mid 80s. Highs should be a couple of degrees warmer compared to this afternoon however as the air mass modifies. Due to the aforementioned clouds, low temperatures are likely to be about 2-4 degrees warmer compared to tonight's values but still slightly below normal for this time of year.
124 AM EDT Wed Aug 17 2022 Upper level low pressure will remain in place over the northeastern states, with below normal temperatures continuing across the Ohio Valley. Warmer temperatures and increasing chances for rain are expected over the weekend, as another area of low pressure moves in from the west. Clearing skies through this evening, with light NNE flow as the region remains on the backside of a trough of low pressure over WV. Expecting some locally dense fog in some of the river valley areas with very light winds and a developing inversion late tonight, with surface dewpoints across the south to remain in the lower 60s.
High pressure at the surface will work to limit precip progression into our region, but dinurally driven instability upstream in MN progressing into the far western portions of Lake Superior, as well as instability across parts of the interior west may support some scattered showers and maybe a rumble of thunder by afternoon. The pattern for the upcoming week is characterized by downstream broad troughing and upstream ridging over the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies.
344 AM EDT Wed Aug 17 2022 Upper level low pressure will remain in place over the northeastern states, with below normal temperatures continuing across the Ohio Valley. Warmer temperatures and increasing chances for rain are expected over the weekend, as another area of low pressure moves in from the west. An upper level trough stays centered to the east with northwesterly flow over Ohio Valley. High pressure also starts building in from the northwest overnight. High pressure moves overhead on Thursday bringing tranquil weather to the Ohio Valley.
446 AM EDT Wed Aug 17 2022 An upper-level composite analysis early this morning shows a weaker-than-average deep layer mean anticyclone centered over the western North Atlantic just north of the Greater Antilles. A ridge extends westward to about the Florida Keys, with a large col region over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. The current weak pressure pattern will gradually give way to increased gradient flow as a low-level ridge builds westward and then shifts northward leading to an increasingly more moist and higher- momentum east-southeasterly flow. Thereafter, an Atlantic high pressure ridge will build westward, and shift northward, resulting in freshening east to southeast breezes and increased shower coverage this weekend.
and Thursday High pressure remained over the forecast area early this morning, but mid/upper level clouds were gradually increasing over the region.
250 AM MDT Wed Aug 17 2022 Current surface analysis shows low pressure over southern SK, with a warm front stretching southward across eastern MT into eastern WY and a cold front across northwestern MT. Upper level analysis shows ridge building across the western US, with northwesterly flow now across the northern and central Plains. Temps are mostly in the 60s, with some 50s over the higher Black Hills. Warmer air will advect into the area, ahead of the approaching cold front, with highs mostly in the mid 80s to mid 90s.
221 AM EDT Wed Aug 17 2022 A persistent upper trough will cut off overhead today and slowly migrate northeast through the rest of the week. Temperatures will trend gradually warmer to near average values by late week as the upper low moves up the coast into the Canadian Maritime provinces.
Cold front remains south of the area with moisture remaining in place with PWATs around 1. With lowering heights, expect below normal temperatures once again today with highs in the low to mid 80s.
1104 PM CDT Tue Aug 16 2022 (This evening through Wednesday) A cold front will begin to accelerate later this afternoon from northwestern Oklahoma into central Oklahoma. Although rather isolated, these storms near the southward-moving cold front would probably impact the greater OKC area 4 PM - 7 PM or so. Overnight, there is a signal for rain and thunderstorms over northwestern Oklahoma associated with the passage of the southern extent of the weak trough passing through the westerlies.
1113 PM EDT Tue Aug 16 2022 A persistent upper trough will cut off overhead today and slowly migrate northeast through the rest of the week. Temperatures will trend gradually warmer to near average values by late week as the upper low moves up the coast into the Canadian Maritime provinces.
453 AM EDT Wed Aug 17 2022 Today will mark an atmospheric change as a low pressure system reintroduces moisture to the area. A low pressure of the the gulf will kick off the main event of heavy rain beginning tomorrow as tropical moisture surges into the south east.
1256 AM EDT Wed Aug 17 2022 Periodic showers and perhaps a thunderstorm chances will continue until dry conditions return later in the week with building high pressure. No change in the weather expected today as the low/trough remains near the nern CONUS.
The largest system for the week will be with a closed upper level low moves southward through the Upper Midwest Thursday evening and into the weekend.
Today through Thursday An upper trof begins to move into northern California today and this will begin to generate some shower and isolated thunderstorm activity in mainly northern Nye County this afternoon in an area of upper divergence. Later this evening the trof begins to progress eastward and precipitation will start to expand northeastward into Eureka, Lander, and Humboldt counties. By afternoon, the trof will be moving into eastern Nevada and daytime heating will allow for stronger storms to form with a good increase in instability. Cooler highs are expected with the temporary lower heights and cloud cover, with highs in the mid 70's to mid 80's.
Not much overall adjustment to the extended which will feature a pronounced upper low drifting south out of Canada and lingering across eastern South Dakota and Minnesota.
A cold front will be stalled across the area this period, located near the GA/FL line.
(Wednesday through Thursday night) The Tennessee Valley will remain wedged between an upper ridge over the Great Plains and a trough over the northern Atlantic Coast. This will keep northwesterly flow anchored aloft, favoring a cooler but more active pattern. Temperatures will remain below normal through the remainder of the short term period, with lows in the low to mid 60s and highs in the low to mid 80s.
Expect for tomorrow to be slightly warmer and drier than today, but still could see an isolated storm or two mainly over our southwestern counties.
(Today and tonight) Today will feature a welcomed relief from triple digit temperatures as clouds and a few showers linger behind the cold front that is continuing to push southward into Texas.
629 AM CDT Wed Aug 17 2022 A cold front was currently moving through the area shifting light surface winds to the northeast.
Tomorrow, much warmer with highs near 90 under clear skies and with the cooler air mass away from the area.
/Issued 453 AM EDT Wed Aug 17 2022/ Today will mark an atmospheric change as a low pressure system reintroduces moisture to the area. A low pressure of the the gulf will kick off the main event of heavy rain beginning tomorrow as tropical moisture surges into the south east.
622 AM CDT Wed Aug 17 2022 (Today and tonight) Today will feature a welcomed relief from triple digit temperatures as clouds and a few showers linger behind the cold front that is continuing to push southward into Texas.
543 AM EDT Wed Aug 17 2022 Periodic showers and perhaps a thunderstorm chances will continue until dry conditions return later in the week with building high pressure. No change in the weather expected today as the low/trough remains near the nern CONUS.
With quite a bit of surface moisture across the region, low stratus clouds and fog will persist much of the morning, some of which may reduce visibility to less than a mile, particularly along and north of the I-80 corridor and along and west of the Highway 281 corridor. Thursday, an area of low pressure will move south from Canada into the northern Plains, dragging a front across our outlook area.
630 AM EDT Wed Aug 17 2022 Upper level low pressure will remain in place over the northeastern states, with below normal temperatures continuing across the Ohio Valley. Warmer temperatures and increasing chances for rain are expected over the weekend, as another area of low pressure moves in from the west. An upper level trough stays centered to the east with northwesterly flow over Ohio Valley. High pressure also starts building in from the northwest overnight. High pressure moves overhead on Thursday bringing tranquil weather to the Ohio Valley.
459 AM MDT Wed Aug 17 2022 Current surface analysis shows low pressure over southern SK, with a warm front stretching southward across eastern MT into eastern WY and a cold front across northwestern MT. Upper level analysis shows ridge building across the western US, with northwesterly flow now across the northern and central Plains. Temps are mostly in the 60s, with some 50s over the higher Black Hills. Warmer air will advect into the area, ahead of the approaching cold front, with highs mostly in the mid 80s to mid 90s.
Short term forecast remains under the influence of an area of high pressure building across much of the Intermountain West. This area of high pressure has shutoff the moisture tap and brought in some dry air into the region. Models are beginning to trend toward this area of high pressure remaining the main weather feature as latest model runs want to stall out the high pressure system keeping the better moisture well south of our area.
500 AM CDT Wed Aug 17 2022 A large ridge of high pressure will bring quiet weather and seasonable temperatures to central and southeast IL through Thursday.
As a result, I think these areas will warm into the low and (maybe) mid 80s, with the central Midlands staying in the upper 70s to around 80F.
614 AM CDT Wed Aug 17 2022 High pressure is found over the region, with light east winds and mostly clear skies. Thursday will be another pleasant day with highs in the lower 80s.
626 AM CDT Wed Aug 17 2022 (Today through Thursday) High pressure is building in from the north this morning as the moisture band that brought yesterday's light showers has slipped mostly to our south.
720 AM EDT Wed Aug 17 2022 Periodic showers and perhaps a thunderstorm chances will continue until dry conditions return later in the week with building high pressure. Another day under the northeast CONUS trough means another day with below-normal temperature and scattered showers/isolated thunderstorms. The morning showers are courtesy of a lobe of vorticity rotating in a southerly direction through the base of the trough.
Made a few tweaks to best capture temperature trends given persistent deck of low clouds (likely to be just a tick cooler today than previously forecasted) and to use 12Z HiRes model guidance for PoPs. /Issued 453 AM EDT Wed Aug 17 2022/ Today will mark an atmospheric change as a low pressure system reintroduces moisture to the area. A low pressure of the the gulf will kick off the main event of heavy rain beginning tomorrow as tropical moisture surges into the south east.
Temperatures remain very mild early this morning with current readings mainly in the 70s to mid 80s across the Central Valley, around 3-7 degrees warmer compared to 24 hours ago. The low along the coast may provide enough lift for some high-based storms this morning over the Central Valley (hi-res CAMs indicate best potential south of I-80 early this morning, then spreading north by late morning).
Thereafter, an Atlantic high pressure ridge will build westward, and shift northward, resulting in freshening east to southeast breezes and increased shower coverage this weekend.
617 AM CDT Wed Aug 17 2022 (Today and tonight) A weak cold front 30 miles north of Haskell and Throckmorton counties at 3 AM CDT will continue to move slowly south today. While upper ridging will suppress most shower and thunderstorm development today, the ridge will be weakening from north to south this later this afternoon and tonight.
318 PM EDT Wed Aug 17 2022 Upper level low pressure will remain in place over the northeastern states, with below normal temperatures continuing across the Ohio Valley.
These "pleasant for August" temperatures are occurring in response to NNW flow between a large upper level trough over the eastern states and a big hot ridge out west. Temperatures will be similar to last night with lows mostly in the lower 60s, but some upper 50s for valleys and the Plateau. A low pressure system will move into the Mid Ms Valley helping to turn our winds more southerly, and this will start to draw some warmer air and moisture back into Tennessee.
(Through tonight ) Temperatures running 25 to 30 degrees cooler than yesterday at this time across much of the area, behind cold front, as light precipitation continues with overcast conditions.
Lows tonight will dip into the lower to middle 70's, warmest nearer the coast.
242 PM CDT Wed Aug 17 2022 The cold front has pushed through the FA with temps ranging from the low to upper 80s as of 1 PM. Temps will likely warm by a few more degrees but will otherwise be kept in check by the cold front. As expected, the upper ridge has kept precip out of the CWA thus far.
Another morning under northwest flow aloft in-between the broad closed upper low over the Northeast into Mid Atlantic and an even broader upper ridge over the western United States. The boundary layer is forecast to be a tad more moist than yesterday, and some guidance such as the 3km NAM even advertises widespread dew points in the lower 60s. Aloft there is slightly cooler mid-level air advecting in from the east-northeast today, with +4C at DVN last evening and +1C at upstream DTX. Gradually weakening 1016 mb high pressure will settle directly over the area by overnight into Thursday morning. Guidance is then in pretty good agreement in closing off a mid-upper level low with this wave as it tracks slowly toward our area, just in time for the weekend.
1051 AM MDT Wed Aug 17 2022 Current surface analysis shows low pressure over southern SK, with a warm front stretching southward across eastern MT into eastern WY and a cold front across northwestern MT. Upper level analysis shows ridge building across the western US, with northwesterly flow now across the northern and central Plains. Temps are mostly in the 60s, with some 50s over the higher Black Hills. Warmer air will advect into the area, ahead of the approaching cold front, with highs mostly in the mid 80s to mid 90s.
Looking at tonight and Thursday, the upper ridge is stretched from the western Gulf of Mexico to British Columbia, right across Colorado.
This will set the stage for fog late tonight into Thursday morning, (Today through Thursday) High pressure is building in from the north this morning as the moisture band that brought yesterday's light showers has slipped mostly to our south.
The lower valleys of north-central Idaho are where overnight lows will continue to be uncomfortable, running 65 to 75F.
With the airmass behind the cold front and the cloud cover, temperatures will remain fairly cool compared to recent weather.
317 PM CDT Wed Aug 17 2022 A mid/upper ridge remains situated over the Central Great Basin and Northern Intermountain region while an upper level trough was lifting over the Northeast.
Overnight lows will fall to the low to mid 60s under light northerly flow.
The upper-level ridge still dominates over western CONUS on Thursday.