Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
609 PM EST Mon Feb 8 2021 High pressure over the region this afternoon will give way to a weak wave of low pressure passing south of the region tonight that will bring a light snow event to the North Country on Tuesday.
422 PM MST Mon Feb 8 2021 Upper trough is persisting across the CONUS today, with arctic air sitting across the CWA. Highs today have been in the single digits, except up in the higher Black Hills, where temps are in the teens to around 20.
552 PM CST Mon Feb 8 2021 Another day with widespread freezing drizzle and a cold front pinned along the I-44 corridor. North of the front, temperatures are in the teens with freezing drizzle causing road impacts. Road conditions have improved south of the front where temperatures are in the low 30s with peak solar insolation. As freezing drizzle continues through the evening, expect road conditions to deteriorate as the sun sets. Overall, freezing drizzle will taper off over the west late this evening and will diminish, while not stopping completely, over the rest of the area later tonight. Tuesday may see some linger very light freezing drizzle over the SE in the morning, but should be more of a break.
646 PM EST Mon Feb 8 2021 High pressure over the region this afternoon will give way to a weak wave of low pressure passing south of the region tonight that will bring a light snow event to the North Country on Tuesday.
Should overall see a stratocu deck build in with min temps being capped to decently above normal in the low to upper 40s for most areas and an increased chance for some showers mainly across central GA. Limited some of the lower end pop extent across the north given more southern trend seen in hi- res consensus and focused moisture axis/upglide zone. Should be enough WAA and moisture in the low levels to squeeze out a few showers with the system across the area, with better chances further to the south across central GA. Still a fair amount of divergence amongst the models with respect to the smaller-scale features providing some uncertainty about the timing and path of the higher precipitation amounts.
140 PM PST Mon Feb 8 2021 A fair and cooler day is in store for SoCal today. For the end of the week and the weekend, a series of troughs will move through, bringing chances for precipitation to SoCal.
Issued by National Weather Service Little Rock AR 406 PM CST Mon Feb 8 2021 A broad trough exists across much of the CONUS this afternoon. Temperatures have struggled to reach forecast highs today north of the slowly retreating warm front but clouds have cleared for most areas south of Interstate 40. The good news is temperatures will remain above freezing for most of the CWA but some locations from Paragould to Tiptonville may be just cold enough for some patchy, light freezing rain.
Tonight and Tuesday: A ridge over the coast is pushing cold, dry Arctic air in the region. The highs will be in the 20s and low 30s.
140 PM PST Mon Feb 8 2021 Pattern change this week with unsettled weather and cooler daytime temperatures in the forecast. This system lacks any significant moisture with it, but the high Sierra maybe to squeak out a few showers late tonight and into tomorrow. In addition to the cloud cover and mountain precip, cooler weather will prevail.
Snow will develop and increase in coverage and intensity over the higher elevations of Carbon and Albany counties overnight tonight into Tuesday morning, and persist through Tuesday night.
The southern extremity of arctic high pressure was located across the southern plains from Amarillo to southern Oklahoma. However, in extreme western Kansas, dense freezing fog may develop for a few hours as dewpoints on the high plains will be higher, along with stronger upslope lift. Tuesday will be similar to today, with highs in the teens and 20s as the low levels remain in easterly upslope flow.
642 PM EST Mon Feb 8 2021 Increasing clouds with patchy light rain or drizzle will precede a warm front Tuesday, with a big warm up Tuesday afternoon well above normal.
A change to unsettled and cooler weather appears to be shaping up for the holiday weekend as a broad Pacific System moves inland.
550 PM CST Mon Feb 8 2021 Another day with widespread freezing drizzle and a cold front pinned along the I-44 corridor. North of the front, temperatures are in the teens with freezing drizzle causing road impacts. Road conditions have improved south of the front where temperatures are in the low 30s with peak solar insolation. As freezing drizzle continues through the evening, expect road conditions to deteriorate as the sun sets. Overall, freezing drizzle will taper off over the west late this evening and will diminish, while not stopping completely, over the rest of the area later tonight. Tuesday may see some linger very light freezing drizzle over the SE in the morning, but should be more of a break.
A warm front is parked over E TX for now and snakes back off shore across S LA into the Gulf. So with warmer temps tonight it is likely we will see more even patchy/dense fog overnight. The low clouds too, but rain will keep out of the picture for most of us through tonight. A few showers will graze by our northern most counties tonight with somewhat more expected as the next cold front seeps down into the region. The cold high pressure of 1034mb now over IA will be fortified from NW tomorrow as another air mass feeds down the front range and helps the front move into our four state area.
Moisture quality isn't impressive with this system as specific humidity values increase to or just below 2g/kg with moist isentropic working to enhance saturation in the low to mid-levels. Overall, the forecast remains on track to see between 1-2 inches of snowfall around the m59 corridor and south, with the higher end totals of the above range more likely across the south Metro region. Mid-level subsidence on the leading edge of a dry and arctic high pressure system will end all snow chances by the mid to late morning hours on Tuesday and will likely aid in eroding cloud cover given the nature of the incoming dry air mass.
247 PM MST Mon Feb 8 2021 Upper trough is persisting across the CONUS today, with arctic air sitting across the CWA. Highs today have been in the single digits, except up in the higher Black Hills, where temps are in the teens to around 20.
1114 PM CST Mon Feb 8 2021 Another day with widespread freezing drizzle and a cold front pinned along the I-44 corridor. North of the front, temperatures are in the teens with freezing drizzle causing road impacts. Road conditions have improved south of the front where temperatures are in the low 30s with peak solar insolation. As freezing drizzle continues through the evening, expect road conditions to deteriorate as the sun sets. Overall, freezing drizzle will taper off over the west late this evening and will diminish, while not stopping completely, over the rest of the area later tonight. Tuesday may see some linger very light freezing drizzle over the SE in the morning, but should be more of a break.
Currently a frontal boundary laid out northwest of the region across Central Kentucky with broad mid-level troughing over the eastern half of the U. Other weather of note overnight is the strong winds in the higher elevations of the southern Appalachian Mountains, mainly above 3,000 feet. An SPS is in effect for the higher terrain to give a heads up, and models indicate that low level jet winds should begin to decrease shortly before sunrise as the stronger forcing with this jet pulls out to the northeast.
A change to unsettled and cooler weather appears to be shaping up for the holiday weekend as a broad Pacific System moves inland. High clouds will continue to stream in this evening as a weak trough meanders through the Desert Southwest. Overnight temperatures will be a bit warmer due to the cloud cover, but should still warm up to above-average territory in the afternoon.
1051 PM CST Mon Feb 8 2021 (Tonight through Tuesday) Cold front continues to sag south, with low clouds following across the northern Big Country.
131 AM MST Tue Feb 9 2021 Persistent upper trough sits over the CONUS, as the upper low spins over central Canada. At the surface, high pressure continues to stretch across MT and the Dakotas, resulting in light winds and cold air over the region.
Therefore the winter weather advisory for freezing drizzle has been allowed to expire. Can't rule out freezing drizzle as well. The thinner cloud may allow for slightly warmer temps.
One a low off the southeast coast with mainly light rain, possibly light freezing rain/sleet or snow, but not expecting any accumulation with this, with pops running 20-30 percent. A front to the west is the other issue bringing slight to low chance pops of mainly rain showers to the mountains, possibly some snow at the higher elevations toward noon.
1021 PM MST Mon Feb 8 2021 Upper trough is persisting across the CONUS today, with arctic air sitting across the CWA. Highs today have been in the single digits, except up in the higher Black Hills, where temps are in the teens to around 20.
Drizzle and freezing drizzle will be ending overnight, with improving visibilities. Regardless, with temperatures falling quickly across much of eastern Oklahoma and far northwestern Arkansas, roads, especially bridges and overpasses, will become slick and hazardous.
Deespite the northerly flow, temperatures will continue to warm a bit today, up to around 20, as high pressure builds in and creates some weak compressional heating.
Increasing low level isentropic upglide induced showers north of the stalled boundary will overspread the forecast area tonight as the upper trough approaches, then move east of the forecast area Tuesday as the axis of the trough moves east of the area. As the upper trough moves over the area, guidance is advertising the mid levels destabilizing, with MUCapes rising to around 1500 J/kg above the inversion, and mid level lapse rates rising to 7-8. Temperatures tonight will see a drop of a few more degrees, bottoming out in the low to mid 50s over the forecast area by midnight, then remaining steady into Tuesday.
leaning heavily on the high side of both QPF and snow ratios still yields only about 2" and just can't justify an advisory for such low amounts. Confidence remains on the low side at this point given such a brief, tenuous signal so will hold with around 4" storm total in Berrien and just an advisory for now. At both sites, there is an opportunity for VFR improvement after 00z with a low-level ridge nosing in.
For the end of the week and the weekend, a series of troughs will move through, bringing chances for precipitation to SoCal.
Mid-to-high clouds continue to stream over the region tonight and tomorrow as a weak trough passes through the Desert Southwest, though mild temperatures will continue.
1035 PM MST Mon Feb 8 2021 Allowed some of the lower elevation warnings to expire at 5PM this afternoon. Snow will develop and increase in coverage and intensity over the higher elevations of Carbon and Albany counties overnight tonight into Tuesday morning, and persist through Tuesday night.
Temperatures along the Keys are in the lower to mid 70s, with sticky dewpoints in the lower 70s, and winds on land are mostly from the east at 5 to 10 mph. Aloft, water vapor imagery shows a deep ridge building northward from the Caribbean into our area. It is unclear if this fog will be able to advect into parts of the Keys late tonight, as the prevailing easterly background flow may or may not be just strong enough to prevent the tendency for light ENE flow to push from the cooler Gulf waters into parts of the Keys during the overnight hours. Have updated the forecast to mention patchy late night and early morning fog for the Lower Keys.
While much of the lower clouds will gradually erode as we head through the late morning hours, upper level moisture is expected to spread across the northern half of the area, resulting in high cirrus across the area.
A warm front boundary continues to lift north over the region, with at least -SHRA or VCSH expected over the next few hours.
With the warm front to our south still, a stable layer at the surface will keep any thunderstorm development elevated with the main threats being small hail, heavy rainfall, and lightning.
Despite the cloud cover, WAA from southwest flow will warm temperatures this afternoon into the low to mid 60s. Otherwise, a seasonal night in store for the Tennessee Valley with overnight lows in the lower 40s.
This is due to a warm front across southern Missouri with decent low level WAA, moisture and lift. However, loss of ice crystals aloft in the dendritic growth zone over the past couple of hours has allowed the snow to transition to a wintry mix of snow, sleet and freezing rain. On Tuesday, dry, cloudy and cold with highs in the low teens to upper 20s.
Regardless, with temperatures falling quickly across much of eastern Oklahoma and far northwestern Arkansas, roads, especially bridges and overpasses, will become slick and hazardous.
1228 AM EST Tue Feb 9 2021 Increasing clouds with patchy light rain or drizzle will precede a warm front Tuesday, with a big warm up Tuesday afternoon well above normal.
Cannot rule out brief fog but favoring stratus vs fog given the higher cloud cover.
1033 PM EST Mon Feb 8 2021 High pressure over the region this afternoon will give way to a weak wave of low pressure passing south of the region tonight that will bring a light snow event to the North Country on Tuesday.
Vertical profiles suggests some freezing drizzle possibly mixing in with the light snow with very light accumulations possible.
1241 AM EST Tue Feb 9 2021 High pressure over the region this afternoon will give way to a weak wave of low pressure passing south of the region tonight that will bring a light snow event to the North Country on Tuesday.
Light freezing fog will diminish through the morning.
While it will be mostly dry today, some patchy light freezing drizzle/freezing rain may develop tonight in portions of northern Arkansas. Today Through Wednesday Night Pretty quiet this morning, with some freezing fog in localized areas of the Ozark Mountains.
Today Through Wednesday Night Pretty quiet this morning, with some freezing fog in localized areas of the Ozark Mountains.
Another mild day expected Wednesday as warm front races north, ushering in even more humidity and some mid range PoPs.
Drier air is being advected in from the north parching the low layers discouraging the development of snow. A large high pressure dome manipulates upper level flow resulting in storm systems following along the edge of the ridge/ring. The edge of this polar high pressure ring is just south and west of our region. Common with both is the placement of the high pressure center, and how it affects the edges or the ring. Tomorrow the high sags a little bit south pushing the boundary along with it. This area becomes increasing unstable as the low deepens.
The recent mid-level pattern featuring an eastern Pacific ridge, and downstream trof over the central/eastern CONUS looks to remain mostly in place through the upcoming weekend.
Fog and low CIGS will likely move back into KLBB and KPVW early Wednesday behind a slow moving cold front along with strong winds just off the deck. /issued 334 AM CST Tue Feb 9 2021/ There is significantly more coverage to the low stratus/fog early this morning behind an advancing shallow arctic air mass. Although, the low stratus/fog may only briefly make it into the southwestern South Plains. An upper trough will be pushing eastward across the southwestern US tomorrow and will pull the seemingly permanent cold front westward through the day. The front is expected to be west of the Texas/New Mexico by tomorrow evening allowing our western zones to enjoy one last day of warm temps before the frigid cold front takes over.
404 AM CST Tue Feb 9 2021 A broad upper trough is over the northern half of the country with a very cold, arctic airmass in place. The colder air will have a hard time moving westward today resulting in much cooler temperatures across mainly the Permian Basin from the rest of the area.
339 AM MST Tue Feb 9 2021 Arctic high pressure anchored over Alberta is now expanding southeastward into Montana. This evolution means that we will keep the cold air coming this week, but in the short term we will also have drier conditions due to the sinking, drier air associated with the high pressure. Wednesday night, a cold front looks to cross the region and bring even colder air to the area. Accumulation will be light, generally an inch or less for the lower elevations and a few inches in the mountains.
Despite the northerly flow, temperatures will continue to warm a bit today, up to around 20, as high pressure builds in and creates some weak compressional heating.
A weak cold front will move southward through the central California interior today with little more than sprinkles in the valley and foothills and isolated showers in the Sierra north of Kings Canyon.
300 AM PST Tue Feb 9 2021 Pattern change this week with unsettled weather and cooler daytime temperatures in the forecast. A few light showers are occurring over the mountains as a very weak system breaks under the eastern Pacific ridge and moves into NorCal. Elsewhere, some sprinkles have been reported at times across the lower elevations.
402 AM PST Tue Feb 9 2021 A series of low pressure systems moving through southwestern California will bring stronger onshore flow with cooling and more clouds, gusty west winds in the mountains and deserts, and chances for precipitation.
Light freezing fog will diminish through the morning. This will be the beginning of freezing drizzle and light freezing rain over the southern half or two-thirds of OK from Wednesday. For the first six hours of Wednesday, freezing drizzle and the chance for freezing rain will move north from the Red River area.
Arctic high pressure was centered over eastern Nebraska early this morning. The far southwest corner of the forecast area around Elkhart continues to be the least impacted by the cold and is expected to see relatively warmer temperatures in the mid 20s today.
540 AM CST Tue Feb 9 2021 Cloud cover across wrn Nebraska is disrupting the radiational cooling process and sfc temperatures have warmed into the low single digits to around zero. A developing warm front is producing the cloud cover and this front will lift into nrn Nebraska today and tonight.
Today: Arctic high pressure will bring a sunny day for a change over most of the cwa except in our far southern counties where clouds may prevail. Wednesday Arctic air will remain over the area as strong high pressure to the NW maintains low-level cold air advection locally on N to NE surface winds.
Slick roadways and bridges will be possible through the morning commute, especially on untreated surfaces. This system will bring the chance for freezing drizzle, freezing rain, sleet, and light snow to the Ozarks region. Intermittent pockets of freezing drizzle and freezing rain could still impact portions of south central and southwest Missouri. This generally includes locations along and south of the Highway 60 corridor.
The 12Z APX sounding did show a respectable depth to the low level inversion, ideal for ducting these clouds inland. The low level flow will remain fairly difluent across Se Mi today as sfc ridging expands into the area from the west.
223 AM MST Tue Feb 9 2021 Latest upper air analysis continues to show the long wave trough over the CONUS. Moisture advection over Eastern Colorado along the cold front has lead to warming temperatures and fog. Today the cold front will not move much from where it is in Eastern Colorado. Wednesday the cold front may move closer to the CO/KS border than today. This will cause highs to be a few degrees warmer than today. Lows will be a few degrees warmer than tonight due to the moisture advection. The past few days guidance has been warmer than reality in regard to the actual temperatures.
440 AM MST Tue Feb 9 2021 Latest upper air analysis continues to show the long wave trough over the CONUS. Moisture advection over Eastern Colorado along the cold front has lead to warming temperatures and fog. Today the cold front will not move much from where it is in Eastern Colorado. Wednesday the cold front may move closer to the CO/KS border than today. This will cause highs to be a few degrees warmer than today. Lows will be a few degrees warmer than tonight due to the moisture advection. The past few days guidance has been warmer than reality in regard to the actual temperatures.
334 AM CST Tue Feb 9 2021 There is significantly more coverage to the low stratus/fog early this morning behind an advancing shallow arctic air mass. Although, the low stratus/fog may only briefly make it into the southwestern South Plains. An upper trough will be pushing eastward across the southwestern US tomorrow and will pull the seemingly permanent cold front westward through the day. The front is expected to be west of the Texas/New Mexico by tomorrow evening allowing our western zones to enjoy one last day of warm temps before the frigid cold front takes over.
437 AM CST Tue Feb 9 2021 Most recent surface analysis shows weak high pressure over the area, with a bank of clouds rolling through the southern half of MN.
RMS Arctic high pressure anchored over Alberta is now expanding southeastward into Montana. This evolution means that we will keep the cold air coming this week, but in the short term we will also have drier conditions due to the sinking, drier air associated with the high pressure. Wednesday night, a cold front looks to cross the region and bring even colder air to the area. Accumulation will be light, generally an inch or less for the lower elevations and a few inches in the mountains.
353 AM CST Tue Feb 9 2021 Cloud cover across wrn Nebraska is disrupting the radiational cooling process and sfc temperatures have warmed into the low single digits to around zero. A developing warm front is producing the cloud cover and this front will lift into nrn Nebraska today and tonight.
550 AM CST Tue Feb 9 2021 Life threatening wind chills continue to be the main impact in the short term period, especially along and north of the Highway 200 corridor. The only saving graces will be light winds coupled with any cloud cover, which this morning is across the southern valley where afternoon highs may be able to break into the low single digits ABOVE zero. However breezy west winds will pretty much kill off any perception of warmer temperatures.
Life threatening wind chills continue to be the main impact in the short term period, especially along and north of the Highway 200 corridor. The only saving graces will be light winds coupled with any cloud cover, which this morning is across the southern valley where afternoon highs may be able to break into the low single digits ABOVE zero. However breezy west winds will pretty much kill off any perception of warmer temperatures.
422 AM CST Tue Feb 9 2021 Life threatening wind chills continue to be the main impact in the short term period, especially along and north of the Highway 200 corridor. The only saving graces will be light winds coupled with any cloud cover, which this morning is across the southern valley where afternoon highs may be able to break into the low single digits ABOVE zero. However breezy west winds will pretty much kill off any perception of warmer temperatures.
/issued Issued by National Weather Service Little Rock AR/ Cold frontal boundary continues to slowly sag SE across the CWA early this Tue morning. with temps dropping into the low 30s to low 40s behind this front. the NWRN portions of the CWA will see temps hovering around or just below freezing for at least some portion of this timeframe. but given temps hovering around freezing in this zone.
Issued by National Weather Service Little Rock AR 357 AM CST Tue Feb 9 2021 Cold frontal boundary continues to slowly sag SE across the CWA early this Tue morning. with temps dropping into the low 30s to low 40s behind this front. the NWRN portions of the CWA will see temps hovering around or just below freezing for at least some portion of this timeframe. but given temps hovering around freezing in this zone.