Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Little change is expected as upper level ridging builds over the region, bringing dry weather. Temperatures in locations with fog are a little cooler than yesterday, but this is expected to change as the fog disperses. Afternoon highs in the Central Valley expected to range in the low to mid 60s.
1118 AM CST Tue Jan 30 2018 Cold high pressure is providing mostly sunny skies across central Illinois. Highs should climb to near normal for this time of year, with temps reaching into the lower 30s in our NE counties near Danville and the upper 30s in our SW counties toward Jacksonville. An axis of high pressure, centered just west of the Mississippi River early this morning, will edge eastward across the state today. Some higher clouds will spread in later today, associated with a warm front, but dry conditions will prevail. With the warm front, lows should occur early in the evening, with gusty southerly winds keeping temperatures fairly steady much of the night.
Winds will diminish toward morning as surface pressure gradient weakens ahead of a cold front.
1212 PM CST Tue Jan 30 2018 For the ArkLaTex, high pressure is centered now over the MS river near KGLH and with that we are going to see our NE/E winds veer to E/SE. Speeds will be increasing as the gradient picks up ahead of our next developing low pressure area and approaching cold front. Scattered showers will accompany a cold front along with a shift to NW/N for most terminals by mid afternoon 31/21Z. The ridge is moving quickly eastward and that should allow for more of a southerly component to develop at least across our western 2/3rds for this afternoon which should allow temps to rebound and reach our forecast max temps for the day.
High pressure over the western states will result in dry weather and well above average temperatures through the coming week. Quiet weather will persist through the week across the Southwest US as high pressure stays anchored over the area.
Low pressure south of Nova Scotia will track into the eastern Maritimes tonight as high pressure builds in from the west. High pressure will crest over the region on Wednesday then a warm front will lift into the area Wednesday night. The low pressure system which has been bringing significant snow Downeast will lift northeast, east of Nova Scotia tonight as high pressure begins to build in from the west. Wednesday morning will be sunny and cold as high pressure crests over the region. Low pressure tracking through eastern Ontario will then pull a warm front toward the area late Wednesday. High pressure will be moving to the east of the region Wednesday Night. At the same time intense low pressure will moving eastward across Canada.
High pressure weakens and moves offshore during mid to late week with no headlines expected.
242 PM EST Tue Jan 30 2018 A longwave trough was moving off the east coast this afternoon as high pressure was building across the southeast.
SHORT TERM (Tonight through Wednesday Night): Extension of large and moderating high pressure area over the southeastern United States maintaining dry and near normal conditions across the Lower Rio Grande Valley. A warmer day expected Wednesday as winds turn more southerly.
255 PM CST Tue Jan 30 2018 Forecast issues will focus on fire weather concerns tomorrow and a strong cold front/potential winter weather late in the weekend. Despite the improving low-level moisture, much warmer afternoon temps will yield very low RH values again, with readings less than 30-35% across much of the area.
Satellite shows mid level cloud shield working through the region, with thinning behind cold front passing into Snake Plain.
Will not be seeing the warmth of yesterday but still a rather pleasant day with afternoon highs in the low to mid 50s. Lighter winds can also be expected with the high pressure ridge approaching and moving across the area. /issued 516 AM CST Tue Jan 30 2018/ VFR conditions will prevail over the next 24 hours with high pressure over the region. With high pressure continuing to build across the region today, visibility should remain nearly ideal for moon gazers. Wednesday is also shaping up to be a rather pleasant day although with the high shifting off to the east and winds turning back out of the southeast, low level moisture will be a bit higher likely leading to a bit more in the way of cloud cover.
High pressure will build into the Carolinas with light north to northeast surface winds. Mostly clear skies are expected with overnight lows dipping to near freezing away from the coast. Forecast RH values appear just low enough to keep frost from becoming too widespread, and any areas that hit freezing in northeast Florida are expected to do so only briefly.
High pressure over the Great Basin will weaken today. A dry cold front will cross the area tonight into Wednesday. High pressure will strengthen along the West Coast late in the week. A trough will continue to transverse the northern Intermountain Region and far northern Rockies today. The associated dry cold front will cross the state later this afternoon into Wednesday. While this cold front will cool the state down, the upper level ridge will quickly rebound across the West Coast by late in the week. A dry cold front is expected to pass through the terminal between 05-07z bringing light northerly winds to the terminal for the latter half of the night.
The breezy and slightly more moist conditions will keep temperatures a bit warmer than the past few nights with lows generally in the 40s.
forecast confidence is medium The main focus initially is on snow chances this afternoon into the early evening hours as a north to south oriented warm front pushes through Wisconsin. Trends then show this band picking up in intensity as the warm front moves into the eastern half of WI into the early evening hours. After briefly being in the warm sector on Wednesday, an initial cold front will drag through in the morning and could provide some light snow showers in central Wisconsin though converage will be more widespread further north.
1155 AM CST Tue Jan 30 2018 Cold high pressure is providing mostly sunny skies across central Illinois. Highs should climb to near normal for this time of year, with temps reaching into the lower 30s in our NE counties near Danville and the upper 30s in our SW counties toward Jacksonville. An axis of high pressure, centered just west of the Mississippi River early this morning, will edge eastward across the state today. Some higher clouds will spread in later today, associated with a warm front, but dry conditions will prevail. With the warm front, lows should occur early in the evening, with gusty southerly winds keeping temperatures fairly steady much of the night.
There is a chance for rain showers Wednesday afternoon as high temperatures reach into the low 40s.
Morning update Temperatures have warmed to near or slightly above freezing across most of the Midsouth. Afternoon highs should be about 10 degrees warmer than current readings. /issued 537 AM CST Tue Jan 30 2018/ Canadian high pressure will continue to settle over the Mid South today with continued dry conditions along with below normal temperatures. The high pressure will shift east tonight with low level southerly flow returning by Wednesday with much warmer temperatures in the middle to upper 50s anticipated.
313 PM EST Tue Jan 30 2018 High pressure will keep dry weather over the region tonight and Wednesday.
1114 AM CST Tue Jan 30 2018 Northwesterly flow aloft continues overhead as we remain between ridging over the Rockies and troughing across the eastern states. At the surface, a high pressure ridge axis continues to move east of the forecast area allowing southerly return flow.
Snow showers will be possible for the mountains today as a cold front moves out of the region. Predominant Northwest flow will push cooler drier air into the region as the cold front that affected the area continues to push out of the region. The highs for today were bumped a degree or two lower and a few knots were shaved off the winds in the Palouse and Camas Prairie areas.
318 PM EST Tue Jan 30 2018 A ridge of high pressure will pass through the area tonight and Wednesday morning.
1249 PM EST Tue Jan 30 2018 A weak low pressure system in eastern Pennsylvania will bring the area a period of light snow through early afternoon. In general, snowfall will range from 1 to 3 inches with the highest amounts in the central southern tier and Finger Lakes region. A weak area of low pressure resides over eastern Pennsylvania with an inverted trough back through central New York. Elsewhere highs will range in the lower to middle 20s under brisk flow this afternoon. Any lingering lake effect snow showers southeast of Lake Ontario will end by midnight due to surface ridging. A slow moving storm system will pull a cold front across NY and PA during the short term period.
As a result have extended the Small Craft Advisory for the open gulf waters of AL and NWFl from 0 to 60 nm out and the lower end of Mobile Bay including the Mississippi Sound east of Pascagoula through 00z Wed or 6 PM CST today. A deep layer dry northwesterly flow pattern aloft prevails across our region early this morning in the wake of a deep upper level trough axis approaching the Eastern Seaboard.
Pressure gradient will tighten up as high pressure shifts eastward, and a cold front approaches from the plains.
Otherwise, temperatures wont move much today as a weak cold front swings across the area. KLG A cold front associated with a strengthening low pressure system tracking east across the Canadian Prairies will sweep across the region this morning, bringing strong winds followed by somewhat cooler but still above average temperatures this afternoon. A cooler airmass from Canada begins to work south into the region late Wednesday with cooler conditions continuing into the weekend.
227 PM CST Tue Jan 30 2018 Gusty winds have been observed this afternoon ahead of an approaching trough over the Dakotas. The warm front attendant to the system with weak isentropic lift is generating light snow from east central MN across west central WI. We could see some light freezing drizzle with the overnight round as we lose saturation in the dendritic layer.
The next cold front will be approaching from Midwest during the period, resulting in a tightening pressure gradient tonight into Wednesday, bringing an increase in low level winds. Clouds will eventually be increasing/thickening on Wednesday night as the cold front nears, but before this happens our eastern valleys will probably decouple and chill again.
Looking for temperatures a few degrees cooler tonight. Less further south with slightly warmer temperatures.
A ridge of high pressure and dry air aloft will produce a quiet forecast through Wednesday. Surface ridging will move off to the east of the area during the day on Wednesday allowing to return out of the south by noon.
Upper level ridge slowly building into the region. Westerly flow over the top of the ridge is spreading mid and high level clouds across the forecast area this evening. As the ridge continues to build clouds will push northward and skies will become sunny during the day. The ridge axis moves off to the east Monday with the flow aloft becoming southwesterly.
A broken line of showers and thunderstorms resulting from the trough of low pressure to the west continues to move eastward across the region at this hour. Overnight lows will bottom out in the lower 70s inland and mid 70s along coastal locales. The upper level trough across the southeast weakens overnight with the axis of the upper level ridge over the Atlantic nosing back into the CWA. At the surface, the CWA also remains on the western edge of the ridge. The GFS brings the low and moisture northward on Monday whereas the ECWMF and UKMET keep the disturbance further south and west.
328 AM CDT Sun Jun 18 2017 Today-tonight: Will linger rain showers/thunderstorm into the morning when combo of upper trough/diffluence and drier air finally shuts down precipitation.
119 AM EDT Sun Jun 18 2017 Widespread thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening with the approach of a cold front. Strong convection is expected to wane overnight, but the cold front will not pass through the region until Monday. As such, the delay in the passage of the cold front will prolong the exit of precipitation, and may lead to several rounds of convection, albeit not as intense. Although the deep moisture is vacated, a mean upper trough will be maintained in the Great Lakes region. This trough will create a progressive flow across the Ohio Valley, leading to daily chances for showers and storms through much of the week.
340 AM CDT Sun Jun 18 2017 Cooler air has spread across the area with temperatures in the mid 50s early this morning. Weak mid level convergence, a small ridge of warmer temperatures near the mid level moist layer and the surface heating will allow for CAPE values around 500 J/kg. One reason for a threat for small hail with such minor instability is a freezing level around 8000-8500 feet AGL. With the cool dry air in place lows will fall into the lower to mid 50s in most locations by early Monday morning. The first half of the week will be characterized by a warm up as upper level ridge works east into the plains.
350 AM MDT Sun Jun 18 2017 Upper level analysis has broad trof continuing to shift east into the Great Lakes region, while western ridge shifts onto the West Coast. At the surface, high pressure resides across the northern Rockies. Western CONUS upper ridge will build into the Great Basin, and a warming trend will begin across the area. Upper ridge will continue to build tonight, with mostly clear skies expected. For the upcoming week, strong upper ridging will keep weather mainly warm and dry.
448 AM EDT Sun Jun 18 2017 A cold front will approach and move through the region today into tonight. During the daytime hours today winds will pick up and thunderstorms will increase in coverage in advance of a cold frontal boundary. Cooler air will work into the region for Monday. Troughing across the region will pull out towards mid week with nearly zonal flow ensuing through the rest of the period.
A cold front will move through Sunday night and bring cooler and less humid air to the area into mid week. MCV tracked from N Illinois into Lower Michigan along a warm front allowing for some showers and storms to form there. Leading edge of upper level trough was entering western Iowa bringing increasing height falls and dynamics which should help coverage and intensity of storms increase. Cold front should be generally clear of the forecast area by late Sunday night with cooler and less humid conditions settling in for a few days. Weak disturbances will rotate around the upper low resulting in a few chances for mainly diurnal showers/few storms given cold air aloft.
Clouds and showers will be on the decrease this afternoon as a ridge of high pressure builds over the Northern Rockies. High pressure will further strengthen on Monday and temperatures will warm up into the 80s for many valleys across western Montana and into the low 90s for the lower elevation valleys of central Idaho.
WV imagery shows an upper-lvl trough approaching the Great Lakes/MS Valley, and trailing a cold front into the Srn Plains. Latest sfc analysis shows the cold front in the Texas Panhandle, and hi-res models bring fropa to KMAF at around 14Z or so. Given temps over the past couple of days, and the fact that it is 85F at KMAF at 09Z, the cooler solutions seem unlikely.
423 AM EDT Sun Jun 18 2017 Under partly to mostly cloudy skies and increasing southeast winds, temperatures are holding in the lower to mid 80s along the island chain. Surface wise, an expansive western Atlantic ridge is draped across the Florida peninsula with a large and disorganized area of low pressure in the western Caribbean Sea. Over the next couple of days, a large and broad area of low pressure with an associated trough axis in the western Caribbean sea will lift northwestward into the southern Gulf of Mexico.
modest 30-40kt low level southwest jet along axis of theta- e ridge aiding in additional shower and thunderstorm development ahead of main frontal boundary along with gusty sfc winds of 20 to 30 mph. Additional tsra development expected from late morning to mid afternoon but likely confined to our far southeast near frontal boundary with daytime heating as short wave trough swings through. Highs will be noticeably cooler reaching near 80 today. Cooler and less humid air tonight with lows around 60. Hires guidance hinting at some light showers developing with troughiness aloft over the area. Deep trough over the area to start the period with upper low centered over Ontario. Warm front and moisture surge mid week will bring muggy conditions back to the region along with higher TSRA chances with potential stalled frontal boundary late week.
652 AM EDT Sun Jun 18 2017 A cold front will approach and move through the region today into tonight. During the daytime hours today winds will pick up and thunderstorms will increase in coverage in advance of a cold frontal boundary. Cooler air will work into the region for Monday. Troughing across the region will pull out towards mid week with nearly zonal flow ensuing through the rest of the period.
251 AM CDT Sun Jun 18 2017 Complex of thunderstorms that moved across much of the area has pushed southeast of the CWA as the cold front continues to move to the southeast. Lingering showers and a few thunderstorms will be possible through midday over the southeast half of the CWA as there will still be some ascent ahead of mid-level trough that will move across Missouri and Illinois later in the day. Clouds will clear out slowly today and there will be some cold air advection which will allow for cooler temperatures than yesterday. Skies will turn mostly clear behind the mid level trough axis tonight.
A cirrus shield which remained from overnight thunderstorms has acted to keep temperatures a bit cooler early this afternoon. Explosive thunderstorm development will occur as a cold front translates south across that area. Showers and thunderstorms will then end from north to south across the Ozarks on Sunday as that cold front shifts south of the region. A cooler and drier air mass will also begin filtering into the area with highs Sunday afternoon around 80 degrees.
335 AM EDT Sun Jun 18 2017 An upper level trough will shift east across the Great Lakes, pushing a cold front through Pennsylvania on Monday.
The latest surface map features a cold front aligned from the Great Lakes down into the southern Plains. Aloft, cyclonic flow rules across the north central CONUS, with a stout short wave trough moving into the northern Plains. Lows will generally range from the mid to upper 60s in the valleys, to near 70 on the ridges. A cold front will begin to push towards the area Sunday afternoon, with more organized meso-scale convection threatening from northwest to southeast later in the day. The higher resolution model guidance is varying on the convective scenarios. Instability will be moderate, with modest 0-6km shear in place, most of which is in the lowest 3km, supporting some potential bowing segments with damaging wind gusts.
Hence, will maintain the basic precipitation forecast as is with relatively high precip chances into mid morning tapering off midday into the afternoon before ending mid/late afternoon as upper trough axis passes through the region. Otherwise, temperatures in/around 80 will be common before cooler air begins to make inroads late today into this evening.
The weather across the Northern Rockies will continue to be dominated by a building ridge. With the building heights temperatures will continue warm up, but this will be gradual as the main ridge axis stays west of the state.
622 AM EDT Sun Jun 18 2017 An upper level trough will shift east across the Great Lakes, pushing a cold front through Pennsylvania on Monday.
328 AM CDT Sun Jun 18 2017 A deepening semi-vertically-stacked area of low pressure over northeast Wisconsin and western Upper Michigan will lifting and exiting to the east this morning. Rain showers associated with the passing upper trough/low will linger over northwest Wisconsin and parts of the Arrowhead through mid morning. Temperatures will be nearly 10 degrees below seasonal normals, with highs in the low to middle 60s. The beginning of the extended periods on Monday night should see the western Great Lakes region underneath northwest flow aloft on the western periphery of the larger scale mid level trof over eastern Canada.
357 AM MDT Sun Jun 18 2017 In the wake of a cold front that moved thru the southeast plains last evening, low level upslope winds and a cloud layer have developed. Temps today acrs the southeast plains will be much cooler than yesterday, with highs mostly in the upper 70s to lower 80s, but a little cooler over northern El Paso county where highs will be in the lower to mid 70s. With a cooler and more stable air mass over the southeast plains, the weather is expected to be dry.
A cold front working across the area from about 14-18Z will provide some focus for showers and thunderstorms but models have been decreasing coverage of late. Hence, will maintain the basic precipitation forecast as is with relatively high precip chances into mid morning tapering off midday into the afternoon before ending mid/late afternoon as upper trough axis passes through the region. Otherwise, temperatures in/around 80 will be common before cooler air begins to make inroads late today into this evening.
145 AM EDT Sun Jun 18 2017 A cold front will move east through the area Sunday into Sunday night.
505 AM EDT Sun Jun 18 2017 A very warm and humid air mass will remain in place through Monday until a cold front clears the area Monday night. Weak high pressure will build over the area for the middle of the week. This gives temperatures in the mid 90s with dewpoints in the low to mid 70s and heat indices around 105F for a couple of hours. A stratus layer has developed east of the Blue Ridge mountains early this morning as seen on nighttime microphysics RGB with some patchy fog over some of the valleys in eastern WV. An upper level trough will be moving across the eastern Great Lks Mon pushing a cdfnt into the area.
1137 PM MDT Sat Jun 17 2017 Cold front was moving across the Palmer Divide at 2 pm and was progressing southward. Up in NE CO, current temps have fallen into the lower 70s. Cold front will move across the SE CO plains the rest of this afternoon and should reach the CO/NM border by late afternoon or early evening. It will be noticeably cooler across the plains, with highs only in the U70s to M80s. Mtns will also be a bit cooler than today, but except for the regions mentioned above, they will be dry.
313 AM CDT Sun Jun 18 2017 (Today and Tonight) Trailing portion of a cold front, associated with an upper trough over the Midwest and Great Lakes, will move south across roughly the northern third of west central Texas today. Consensus model approach has the cold front reaching a Cisco to Water Valley to Big Lake line by 5 PM. Behind the front, temperatures will be a little cooler, especially across the area north and northwest of Abilene where highs will be in the lower to mid 90s. Uncertain to some extent on how far south the cold front will progress tonight.
Cold front barreling south towards I-40 is on track for FROPA times of 4 AM and 5 AM at PVW/CDS and LBB, respectively. The GFS MOS is right in the middle of the much cooler NAM and warmer ECMWF so will settle on those numbers, generally in the mid 80s with a few 90s in our border counties to the east and south.
252 AM CDT Sun Jun 18 2017 A much needed, much quieter day is on tap in the wake of last evening's cold front. Sunshine should arrive in time to allow sufficient diurnal heating during the afternoon, but this surface heating will battle increasing northwest winds/CAA and only allow highs to reach the low 80s.