Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Focus remains on upper low ejecting ENE moving out of western NE and its impacts on the area late tonight into Friday. with regards to ptype, later onset of the start does lower the chances for snow, but doesn't eliminate them with a quick burst of wet snow or rain/snow mix possible in the NW and N (Toll road north) prior to wet bulb zeros and sfc temps climbing above freezing. Next trough will quickly move in for Sat afternoon into Sat evening with chc pops maintained as system will generally be cut off from deeper moisture so close to the short term system.
155 AM CST Fri Dec 9 2022 - Near normal today, with highs in the lower 40s.
1045 PM CST Thu Dec 8 2022 (This afternoon through Friday night) An upper level trough is moving into the Central Plains and will move towards the Great Lakes area on Friday. Another upper trough will move from the West Coast tonight to the Central and Northern Plains on Saturday morning. A northerly wind shift across Southeast New Mexico and the northern Permian Basin tonight will bring cooler temperatures to these areas. Low temperatures tonight will range from the 30s across portions of Southeast New Mexico to the 60s across the Lower Trans Pecos and Rio Grande.
Currently have an upper level wave over the high plains with active jet energy from the desert southwest into the plains and all the way into the northeast U. This should become more widespread across the area during the overnight into into Saturday, with the highest pops and qpf expected in the southwest CWA.
As this occurs, low/mid-level flow across the TN Valley will veer to west- northwest, allowing a weak cold front to slip southeastward into our area Friday afternoon. As noted yesterday, the southward advection of cooler/drier air in the wake of the front will not be very strong, and with lingering cloud cover, lows should only fall into the u40s-l50s Saturday morning.
447 AM EST Fri Dec 9 2022 High pressure to our north will bring several days of dry and gradually colder weather into Saturday.
Wedge of high pressure has nosed slightly cooler air mass into northeast GA this morning, and afternoon temperatures will be highly dependent on where wedge front sets up.
Fog and stratus along and east of the Missouri river in north central South Dakota and into the James valley persist this morning, as well as pockets over the Sisseton hills, where a little freezing drizzle has been observed on webcams and via MPING reports. We also will see increased mid and high clouds associated with a mid level trough.
Temperatures are floating around the low to mid 70s across the island chain with gentle northeasterly winds reported across our offshore marine platforms. Our sensible weather for the next several days will continue to be driven by a deep layer mean anticyclone currently located in the central Gulf of Mexico. Saturday evening, this high is progged to drift over Florida resulting in further slackening winds across our area.
Key Messages: * Most locations will warm above freezing by 11 AM and with sunshine any ice should melt off fairly quickly this morning.
Better chance of mixing by Saturday following a warm frontal passage overnight, and winds switching to the west even as they remain fairly light.
Current surface analysis reveals a W-E oriented quasi-stationary frontal boundary draped along the southern TN border while to our west, an area of low pressure is centered over the IA/MO border. Expect mild high temperatures ranging from the lower 50s across southern IN to the upper 50s/lower 60s over southern KY. Surface flow will shift to the NW by tonight as the area of low pressure begins to move off to the east. Overnight lows will be slightly cooler in the lower to mid 40s. Saturday morning looks to start off dry, but an approaching system and surface cold front from the west will likely result in showers developing by the afternoon for some. Model soundings reveal some drier air up north in the lowest levels that might take a little longer to saturate vs down south across southern Kentucky.
310 AM MST Fri Dec 9 2022 Current surface analysis shows low pressure over western IA, with weak high pressure centered over the central Plains. Chances for pcpn will be rather low as it moves into the high plains, but have added some slight chances for snow showers this evening across northeast WY and into parts of the Black Hills overnight.
Vigorous upper low noted on 08z/2am water vapor imagery over western Iowa will track E/NE into the Great Lakes today. Based on radar trends and latest CAM guidance, the highest PoPs will be focused north of the I-70 corridor through mid-morning.
NBM guidance indicates around a 70 percent chance that new snowfall today will exceed one inch, with lesser amounts in the lower Southwest valleys. A strong but shallow temperature inversion in the lower Milk River valley presents a difficult forecast challenge today for locations east of Havre.
220 AM MST Fri Dec 9 2022 A trough over the Intermountain West early this morning will quickly pull across the central and northern Rockies today. A transitory ridge is then expected tonight, exiting the area Saturday morning.
433 AM MST Fri Dec 9 2022 A trough over the Intermountain West early this morning will quickly pull across the central and northern Rockies today. A transitory ridge is then expected tonight, exiting the area Saturday morning.
Forecast Discussion: A compact upper low is spinning over Iowa early this morning.
339 AM MST Fri Dec 9 2022 Current surface analysis shows low pressure over western IA, with weak high pressure centered over the central Plains. Chances for pcpn will be rather low as it moves into the high plains, but have added some slight chances for snow showers this evening across northeast WY and into parts of the Black Hills overnight.
706 AM EST Fri Dec 9 2022 High pressure to our north will bring several days of dry and gradually colder weather into Saturday.
555 AM CST Fri Dec 9 2022 (Today and tonight) A cold front continues to push into north Texas early this morning.
A quick moving upper-level trough will is swing through the area producing snow across western Idaho during the overnight and this will gradually overspread our area around 5 AM and will continue through mid-afternoon. As fast as the snow begins, it quickly comes to an end as the trough departs to the east and weak ridging builds back in.
525 AM CST Fri Dec 9 2022 - Near normal today, with highs in the lower 40s.
A trough and cold front moving across the region today is causing some snow, mostly in the mountains but some valley locations could receive around an inch or less. Right behind that trough is a cut-off low diving south along the U.
Temperatures from the Flint Hills on west are at or below freezing, so patchy slick spots are likely due to the dense fog freezing on area roads and bridge decks. Once clouds clear from the west, temperatures this weekend will be seasonably warm mostly in the low-mid 50s under mostly clear/sunny skies.
633 AM EST Fri Dec 9 2022 (Today through Saturday) Deep layer ridging will result in mostly benign sensible weather conditions over the next couple of days.
An area of high pressure aloft over the Gulf of Mexico with a broad ridge over the Deep South will persist through Saturday afternoon.
(This afternoon through Saturday night) A weak cold front/boundary is currently across the Permian Basin with an abundant supply of moisture. Low temperatures tonight will range from the 30s across portions of Southeast New Mexico to the 60s across the Lower Trans Pecos and southern Permian Basin.
Mid level ridging remains in control across the Gulf of Mexico and this feature will continue to maintain dry and warm conditions through this evening. Otherwise, fog and low clouds should once again gradually erode by late morning on Saturday with mainly sunny and warm weather once again as mid level ridging remains established across the area.
Between the cold front in northwest Oklahoma and cloud cover / showers elsewhere, afternoon highs will be relegated to the cool 50s.
1045 AM EST Fri Dec 9 2022 After a sunny Friday, an area of low pressure will bring rain and perhaps some light ice to portions of the area Saturday morning.
Cooler and drier air has filtered into the region and the fog has lifted in most areas.
(Saturday through Friday) Widespread showers and isolated/scattered thunderstorms will be ongoing Saturday morning with the activity spreading southeastward during the day as a cold front associated with a northern stream system moving into the upper mid-west moves into the area.
Mid level ridging will shift quickly east across the area through Saturday morning before another weak mid level short wave moves quickly east across the area Saturday afternoon into Saturday night.
1030 AM MST Fri Dec 9 2022 Current surface analysis shows low pressure over western IA, with weak high pressure centered over the central Plains. Chances for pcpn will be rather low as it moves into the high plains, but have added some slight chances for snow showers this evening across northeast WY and into parts of the Black Hills overnight.
We remain on the western periphery of the mid-level ridge with GFS and NAM indicating slightly deeper moisture in the east. Highs today and Saturday in the low to mid 80s (mid to upper 70s beaches) with lows tonight upper 60s to lower 70s.
1142 AM CST Fri Dec 9 2022 - Near normal today, with highs in the lower 40s.
Lows tonight will mainly be in the upper 50s and lower 60s, with highs Saturday ranging from the low to mid 60s across the Big Country, to the upper 60s and lower 70s elsewhere.
1101 AM EST Fri Dec 9 2022 After a sunny Friday, an area of low pressure will bring rain and perhaps some light ice to portions of the area Saturday morning.
Aloft over deep South Texas and the Gulf will be a mid level ridge. High pressure will control the North Gulf of Mexico, providing a persistent southeast to south flow. A weak Southern Plains front ahead of the trough may get a push Saturday into Saturday night, pushing into South Texas but no farther by the end of the short term.
Best chances for fog overnight will be south of the boundary, as winds along and north of it will stir, keeping the lower levels somewhat mixed.
As we being the week, the deep layer ridge dominates with a benign weather pattern. High temperatures will remain in the lower 80s across South Florida.
The upper system weakens and shears out this evening and moisture becomes shallower, but some omega/lift does linger in the low cloud deck per Bufkit overviews. A risk of patchy drizzle therefore develops after the snow winds down, and some of this may be freezing drizzle where sfc temps dip below zero. Moisture is shallow enough near and south of I-96 that precip would probably more drizzle/freezing drizzle than snow. Meanwhile to the north of I-96 where moisture is a bit deeper and closer to the track of the upper low, snow should be more dominant and up to 1" may accumulate.
Have the highest pops in this area. The lingering clouds/marginal moisture advection across the SE counties will could lead to warmer lows here (30s). To the northwest in the drier air/under high pressure center. Pops tomorrow will remain at zero percent as high pressure prevails across the greater region. Highs in the lows 60s across the southwest zones to 50s elsewhere will close out the weekend. The lee trough will continue to deepen through this period, so winds will remain seasonably breezy to gusty at times.
1120 AM EST Fri Dec 9 2022 After a sunny Friday, an area of low pressure will bring rain and perhaps some light ice to portions of the area Saturday morning.
Temperatures this afternoon have risen to near and into the lower 80s for the island communities. Deep layer ridging across the entirety of the Gulf of Mexico will hold firm through Saturday.
217 PM CST Fri Dec 9 2022 A persistent stratus layer with some embedded freezing fog will remain a forecast challenge through Saturday morning. The hi-res models all exit it to the east Saturday afternoon as high pressure and northwest flow briefly move in. Saturday does appear to have the potential to be much warmer with dry mid levels and an upper ridge transitioning in. Southerly winds will increase Saturday night ahead of low pressure along the lee of the Rockies.
Despite the influx in moisture, however, we still remain heavily entrenched under a deep mean layer ridge. High pressure remains situated over the entirety of the Gulf of Mexico and will continue to promote gentle to moderate breezes through Saturday.
Lows tonight should range from the mid 30s in the far north to the lower 40s in the south, so this will be a cold rainfall. Highs on Saturday will range from the lower 50s in the southwest to the mid 40s in the east.
A persistent stratus layer with some embedded freezing fog will remain a forecast challenge through Saturday morning. The hi-res models all exit it to the east Saturday afternoon as high pressure and northwest flow briefly move in. Saturday does appear to have the potential to be much warmer with dry mid levels and an upper ridge transitioning in. Southerly winds will increase Saturday night ahead of low pressure along the lee of the Rockies.
The rain chances will taper off during the afternoon as the trough axis passes off to the east allowing subsidence to set in, though the clouds will be slow clear out into Saturday night.
Temperatures in the far northern CWA have been trending a little cooler than the previous forecast, so some downward adjustments were made there. Mid level ridging will shift quickly east across the area through Saturday morning before another weak mid level short wave moves quickly east across the area Saturday afternoon into Saturday night.
Warm moist air in the low 70 is currently being lifted over a stalled frontal boundary just south of I-20, where temperatures are stuck in the 50s. The continuous feed of warm moist air over this cooler airmass is resulting in a sharp contrast which will likely keep fog and low clouds in place through most of the night. Lows tonight will mainly be in the upper 50s and lower 60s, with highs Saturday ranging from the low to mid 60s across the Big Country, to the upper 60s and lower 70s elsewhere.
538 PM CST Fri Dec 9 2022 (This afternoon through Saturday night) A weak cold front/boundary is currently across the Permian Basin with an abundant supply of moisture. Low temperatures tonight will range from the 30s across portions of Southeast New Mexico to the 60s across the Lower Trans Pecos and southern Permian Basin.
655 PM EST Fri Dec 9 2022 An area of low pressure will bring rain and perhaps some light ice to portions of the area tonight.
Baker Building upper ridging will continue to bring warming temperatures through late week while Atlantic high pressure noses into the area at the surface.
Western flank to H3-H5 ridging will remain over Southeast Michigan to begin the period Wednesday. Otherwise, persistent neutral to anticyclonic flow trajectories with subsaturated air mass in the lowest 16. Lack of true southwesterly trajectory signals lack of mixing height which tempers expectations for overachieving on the high side.
407 PM EST Tue Mar 9 2021 High pressure will remain nearly stationary off the Carolina coast this week bringing dry weather and a steady warmup. A cold front will move south and may stall near the area this weekend, with little precipitation expected. Quiet weather will continue as high pressure meanders offshore through the end of the week. Current forecast keeps overnight lows in the low 40s or upper 30s. Pristine spring weather continues on Wednesday with the high pressure holding near the area. Sunny with highs in the lower 70s should make for an excellent day with warming trend to continue through the remainder of the week.
Challenge and impacts in the short term revolve around cold frontal passage this afternoon and evening which escorts the well above normal temperatures from the area for the foreseeable future and then the snow potential tomorrow afternoon and evening as a short wave and associated def zone with potential mesoscale banding develops. This evening into the overnight will see the continued push of cold air advection with cold front rapidly moving across the area.
Tonight will remain mild most of the night, but a weak cold front will slide through the area and bring colder temperatures by morning and a few sprinkles/light rain showers to far northern Minnesota.
428 PM MST Tue Mar 9 2021 Water shows large trof over the western CONUS. At the surface, cold front has swept through our entire CWFA with gusty northwest winds. Another band of heavy snow now looks more likely from the NEB panhandle northeast through southwest SD, especially from around Pine Ridge northeastward to south of Philip.
Dry and warm weather continues today thanks to weak ridging overhead. The higher dewpoints would be a relief to the marginal fire danger we've been highlighting if it weren't for the increased southerly winds, but because of that we'll likely continue to see marginal fire weather conditions for at least the eastern half of the area tomorrow afternoon.
Once again, the atmosphere will become unstable to support scattered showers that would be mainly confined to the higher terrain. A ridge of high pressure will be the dominant feature over the Northern Rockies for the latter part of the work week into the weekend. This ridge will keep conditions fairly dry as temperatures warm a few degrees each day.
It will be a warm start to the day, but the low cloud cover will limit heating potential quite a bit and we have highs in the upper 60s to low 70s.
At the surface, a circulation rounding high pressure situated along the East Coast was providing light SSE winds. Highs on Wednesday should reach the middle 70s for most (lower 70s atop the higher plateaus).
The cold upper level closed low continues to move slowly south off of the West Coast. The next impulse along the trough is bringing the current round of precipitation to NorCal. As the closed low moves onshore tomorrow through Central California, precipitation is expected to become more isolated showers in nature. Thunderstorms on Wednesday will be more discrete as the closed low moves through Central CA. Showers expected to diminish from the north by Wednesday evening as the low shifts south.
Initially tonight, a fairly quick moving right entrance region of the upper jet will lift northeast of the area, which will back winds a bit in the low and mid levels. This will help keep low to mid level winds backed a bit as low pressure moves northeast at the surface through northwest IA into southeast MN. Parts of northwest IA late afternoon and early evening could see westerly winds gust to around 40 mph as deeper mixing sets up on the south side of the lifting low pressure. Once this system exits cooler air will remain in place into the weekend, but temperatures will still be above normal with highs mainly in the 40s and lows mainly in the 20s as a trough of low pressure develops over the Rockies.
Afternoon highs tomorrow may push over 80 degrees in some areas, and overnight lows will only drop down into the low to mid 60s.
High pressure will maintain a generally dry pattern. Winds increase from the east at 10-15 kts with gusts in the low 20s aft 10/15z.
622 PM EST Tue Mar 9 2021 High pressure keeps conditions dry through Wednesday, with temperatures trending much warmer than average.
205 AM EST Wed Mar 10 2021 A deep layer ridge stretching from Central Mexico across the Florida Peninsula Will build in response to a digging trough in the Western U.
333 AM EST Wed Mar 10 2021 Did a quick update to the T/Td grids per the latest obs and trends capturing the ongoing large ridge to valley temperature differences. Have tweaked the hourly temperature grids to account for this trend, but the lows still look to be on track. A large scale positively tilted trough aloft was over the western and north central CONUS. Ridge/valley differences can be expected with the dry air mass and warm air advection, but exactly which valleys can decouple and where temperatures settle is the question. A large area of low pressure is expected to form along the western end of the front over the central Plains. This low will eventually move off to the east, and may bring renewed rounds of rain to the forecast area.
Winter Storm Warnings over east central Wyoming and points eastward into the northern Nebraska Panhandle appear to be in good shape w/ widespread 5-10 inch amounts likely, especially along the Pine Ridge. Cold front just about to move into the southern Panhandle this afternoon. 700mb low closes off over Sweetwater County into northwestern Colorado at this time with widespread snow developing to the north and east of this low.
A mid-upper level ridge over the Gulf of Mexico and mid-upper level trough over the Bahamas puts the local area under a convergent pattern, promoting stability and fair weather. A mid to upper level trough over the Bahamas with the ridge over the Gulf of Mexico, will promote convergence and stability over the local area. Daytime high temperatures will be in the low to mid 70s and the overnight low temperatures will range from the low 50s over the NW interior to the low 60s across coastal Saint Lucie and Martin Counties.
1204 AM EST Wed Mar 10 2021 Dry and warm conditions are expected until rain chance returns on Thursday with a slow moving cold front. Deepening west coast low pressure will enhance warm advection in swly flow aloft over the region by Wednesday as the aforementioned ridge amplifies, with sufficient boundary layer mixing to generate gusts at, or a bit above 20s kts.
Southward-moving upper low off northern California will eject a weak short wave trough across southern Oregon tonight and Wednesday morning resulting in scattered snow showers tonight across southern Harney and Malheur Counties, then along the NV/ID border Wednesday. Skies will clear from north to south Wednesday night as the upper low moves farther south.
Temperatures will end up being a few degrees warmer this afternoon than yesterday. The warming trend will also continue, with temperatures expected to reach into the 70s in most places, and as warm as the lower 80s along and north of I-20 where there will be more heating from sunshine during the afternoon.
High temperatures will reach the higher side of guidance. Expecting highs across the area in the low 70s. The higher winds will keep things well mix and limit lows to the mild 50s or even low 60s by Thursday morning. The advancing cold front to our northwest will bring light rainfall to southern Indiana before sunrise on Thursday.
Behind the dryline where deeper mixing is expected, leaned into the RAP for dewpoints(much drier), used NBM 50th percentile for MaxT (warmer), and nudged toward NBM 90th percentile for winds. Modest 850mb flow (models have trended weaker with the low level jet) will be a limiting factor for wind speeds.
The low level jet is currently in high gear over NE OK with VAD wind profile data reading winds from the south at around 45 to 50kts between 1000 and 2000 feet above the surface. Skies are expected to cloud up shortly after sunset with the low level jet reintensifying by 03 or 04Z over the area.
101 AM EST Wed Mar 10 2021 A strong ridge of high pressure across the Middle Atlantic this evening will move offshore tonight and into Wednesday. This high will remain in place through late-week.
Tonight will remain mild most of the night, but a weak cold front will slide through the area and bring colder temperatures by morning and a few sprinkles/light rain showers to far northern Minnesota. Of main concern, we should have just enough warmth aloft to produce melting aloft, and temperatures near or just below freezing at the surface for a few hours Wednesday evening before transitioning to all snow shortly after midnight. The thermal profiles over northwest Wisconsin continue to support rain changing to a wintry mix of freezing rain and sleet before becoming all snow Wednesday afternoon and night, and while I have ended up lowering the ice accumulation, am concerned mainly for elevated surfaces with this event.