Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
A weak cold front will accompany the upper wave with winds becoming nnely during the afternoon. Before the passage of the cold front, temps should be able to warm into the lower 60s. A large high pressure area will then build from Canada into srn WI by 12z Fri.
201 AM EDT Thu Nov 3 2016 A cold front crosses Thursday. High pressure brings dry, cooler weather for Friday through the weekend and into the next work week. For Thursday we will be tracking a strong cold front that will progress through the region. Temps will bounce up in the lower 70s perhaps across the WV Lowlands before the front arrives. Showers should be ending Thursday evening as the cold front moves off to the east. Much cooler air moves in behind the front for Friday and Friday night.
224 AM PDT Thu Nov 3 2016 High pressure will bring dry weather the rest of the week with valley inversions and the potential for patchy early morning freezing fog in some valleys.
The main change during the period will be the consolidation/ strengthening of a deep upper trough near 140W. That will lead to a gradual increase in the downstream ridging over the central portion of North America. Given the position of the forecast area near the longwave ridge position, precipitation amounts are likely to end up well below normal for the period.
239 AM EDT Thu Nov 3 2016 The region is ahead of an approaching cold front tonight. High pressure will bring quieter and more seasonal temperatures to the region by Friday and continue into the weekend. However, across the southeast counties expect readings to rise into the lower 70s before arrival of front in the afternoon. Friday looks like a cool day for early November, as sharp upper level trough exits the area.
/issued 342 PM EDT Wed Nov 2 2016/ Over the next day or so, high pressure will retrograde and weaken ahead of an approaching cold front.
605 AM EDT Thu Nov 3 2016 High pressure over the region will weaken ahead of an approaching cold front today. The cold front will move through the area late tonight. Cooler weather will occur behind the front over the weekend. It will be a warm day ahead of the approaching cold front. The cold front is forecast to move through the area during the 06z to 12z time frame tonight. Moisture should remain limited with h85 westerly flow ahead of the cold front. A little more moisture and lift associated with the upper trough supports the higher pop in the north. Otherwise, it should be dry behind the cold front. The GFS and ECMWF displayed ridging dominating through the medium-range period.
358 AM CDT Thu Nov 3 2016 Cold front extending from near PPQ southwest through JEF will continue moving southeastward today. Cooler temperatures can be expected today due to the low level cold air advection behind the cold front along with low level cloudiness inhibiting solar insolation this morning. Although temperatures will be much cooler compared to the recent stretch of unseasonably warm weather, the highs today will still be about 10 degrees above normal with the lows tonight about 5 degrees above normal for early November.
All have the cold front moving into north Georgia around 06z Friday and into central Georgia by 12Z Friday. mainly in the higher elevations with some areas reaching Wind Advisory criteria. Strong CAA kicking in behind with a very dry airmass setting up shop for the weekend as the H5 ridge amplifies into the Great Lakes.
310 AM PDT Thu Nov 3 2016 High pressure will persist through at least the weekend, so dry conditions are expected.
High pressure aloft will maintain dry conditions and seasonal temperatures across Utah today.
330 AM MDT Thu Nov 3 2016 With no real kicker in place, the closed low over southern Arizona will remain stationary for most of the day keeping our forecast area dry for the most part. By daybreak Friday, the low will have moved slightly eastward allowing flow to become more south to southeasterly which will allow moisture to move in. However, upper level support looks to be lacking with this system and with the strongest forcing being the area of low pressure itself, the best forcing remains to our south.
146 AM EDT Thu Nov 3 2016 A cold front will move through the area late tonight into Thursday, bringing showers and possibly a thunderstorm, along with a transition to cooler conditions. A dry area of high pressure will slowly move through the region from Friday and into the weekend. The cold front will begin to move through the area overnight. This run of the models is not a impressive with the low level convergence along the front and therefore they are much for scattered with the pcpn as the period begins. Highs on Thursday will be much cooler than today, but still a few degrees above normal. High pressure will begin to build in Thursday night. High pressure will build in for Friday and the skies will be mostly sunny.
Forcing will continue to translate east, bringing an end to rain over the far eastern counties by around 12z as lead energy is swept north and east in advance of the approaching trough. Lowered highs just a touch into the mid to upper 50s, coldest in the thumb and along the glacial ridge. Arrival of the upper trough may provide sufficient forcing to act on residual moisture lower in the column, but nothing more than a low chc pop warranted attm. Prolonged stretch of quiet weather in the offing as strongly confluent NW flow dominates for the remainder of the week followed by another round of aggressive height rises in response to western US troughing.
327 AM EDT Thu Nov 3 2016 A crossing cold front will generate showers today and will usher in more seasonable temperature.
Currently, it's fairly uncomfortable for early November, 02/20z surface observations reveal dew points well into the mid to upper 60s along with temperatures in the low 80s ahead of the surface boundary that continues to slowly push eastward off the panhandles. For tomorrow into the weekend, expect relatively dry conditions through Friday as brief ridging over the southern half of the plains keeps the approaching western 500mb low parked over the desert southwest.
320 AM EDT Thu Nov 3 2016 High pressure over the region will weaken ahead of an approaching cold front today. The cold front will move through the area late tonight. Cooler weather will occur behind the front over the weekend. It will be a warm day ahead of the approaching cold front. The cold front is forecast to move through the area during the 06z to 12z time frame tonight. Moisture should remain limited with h85 westerly flow ahead of the cold front. A little more moisture and lift associated with the upper trough supports the higher pop in the north. Otherwise, it should be dry behind the cold front. The GFS and ECMWF displayed ridging dominating through the medium-range period.
/issued 836 PM EDT Wed Nov 2 2016/ High pressure continues across the region with slowly increasing moisture and a slowly relaxing pressure gradient. E/NE flow should lighten over the next couple of days as high pressure weakens ahead of an approaching cold front for later Friday. High pressure will continue over the waters with the pressure gradient gradually weakening as a cold front approaches the state through Friday. The front will then push through the area later Friday with high pressure building into the area behind the front for the weekend.
The first is currently over WY and this trof will cross SD and Nrn Neb today. This trof is a little stronger and will move into the Dakota's tonight. with the highest instability over Nrn KS.
Surface cold front then sags into the area on Friday afternoon into Friday evening with renewed chances of showers and storms. Instability will be less than today given lower dewpoints in the lower to mid 60s. Highs mainly in the lower to mid 80s.
Low pressure approaching the Pacific Northwest is likely to produce slightly cooler and breezier conditions for the weekend. Ridge axis near the U. Temperatures will remain slightly above average through Friday, with highs in the 90s to near 100 degrees in the lower valleys and 80s for Sierra valleys.
Dewpoints across all of Lower Michigan remain firmly in the upper 60s and low 70s this morning and the thermal ridge featuring 850mb temperatures of 16 to 17C remains over head for the time being. This airmass will slowly shift east through today as the trough currently centered over Minnesota shifts east. Over the SE CWA, increasing forcing along the lead edge of the trough will allow for an opportunity for scattered thunderstorm development between about noon and 4pm before instability and forcing shifts east. Benign cold advection type showers may impinge on the Saginaw Valley region by late afternoon as cooler cyclonic flow works into the Central Great Lakes.
640 AM EDT THU JUL 14 2016 A cold front will move southeast across our area today, possibly causing scattered thunderstorms this afternoon. Fair weather is expected behind the front tonight with temperatures falling into the lower to middle 60s. Another cold front will move through the area friday, possibly causing a few showers over southern michigan, northeast indiana, and northwest ohio. Highs friday will be below normal, ranging from the mid 70s to the lower 80s. Frontal boundary rather broad/ill defined attm and will prbly become more diffuse today as wswly flow mixes down today with main upr level shrtwv movg through base of longwave trof bypassing our area to the north. Temps should be considerably cooler with more cloudiness and highs ranging from the m70s nw to the l80s se.
252 AM CDT THU JUL 14 2016 (Today and Tonight) Upper ridging over Texas will keep the forecast area hot, dry and sunny today.
1222 AM CDT THU JUL 14 2016 Behind this evening's squall line cooler and much more stable conditions have developed across central IL however SPC mesoanalysis showing some return of instability south of a Springfield to Lawrenceville line and additional thunderstorms are developing in that area. A cold front and broad upper level trough continues to approach from the northwest. Dewpoints in the low to mid 70s and temps in the mid 80s to lower 90s was supporting these higher CAPES. Muggy lows overnight mostly in the lower 70s with some upper 60s nw of IL river. Cooler highs around 80F from I-74 north on Friday with mid 80s southeast of I-70.
Early morning update to adjust pops downward this morning as debris clouds and rain cooled air will limit showers first part of the morning, but as main front and mid level trough approach by afternoon still expect increasing showers and storms, especially south and east of Pittsburgh where better low level moisture and instability looks to reside. System will cross east of the ridges tonight with showers diminishing northwest to southeast as the night progresses.
A shallow, mid level spot low over the Lower Mississippi Valley will drift out over the North Gulf through Friday, but not seeing much immediate impact. The 1016 mb isobar over the west Gulf will shift east under the low on Friday, with slightly weaker winds possible as a result of the resulting looser pressure gradient with lower upstream pressure. Heat index values will again be above the century mark this afternoon, with the higher values ranging from 105 to 108 degrees west of U.
A warming trend for inland areas will continue through Friday as an upper level ridge builds in from the Desert Southwest. These warm conditions will persist through late in the week as cooler temperatures continue near the coast. Inland temperatures will cool back to near seasonal averages over the weekend as an upper level trough develops off of the West Coast. Current 24-hour temperature trends are indicating warmer conditions at area airports except for those along the Monterey Bay, where coastal stratus is present.
More pronounced West Coast troughing and development of a Pacific Northwest low will allow for winds aloft to back more southwesterly over the weekend.
130 AM EDT THU JUL 14 2016 A typical summer pattern will persist over the next few days with high pressure well offshore and a trough of low pressure inland. A weak trough will linger across eastern North Carolina over the weekend.
322 AM CDT THU JUL 14 2016 The air mass across the region will remain unstable across the region today as a cold front approaches from the northwest.
153 AM EDT THU JUL 14 2016 High pressure over the central and southern Appalachians will drift south and weaken. cold front will move southeast toward the area Thursday. A trough of low pressure will move southeast across the area Friday. High pressure will then build east across the area over the weekend. a cold front is expected to sag into the region during the afternoon and make rather slow progress to the southeast.
/issued 157 PM CDT WED JUL 13 2016/ The main story for this forecast package will continue to be the persistent heat that is expected to stick around the next couple days as an upper ridge holds strong over the region. At the surface, an area of low pressure remains centered over the TX/OK Panhandles extending south through SE NM and W TX today. Strong thermal ridge looks to remain over the area through tomorrow at the very least. MOS guidance has been way too cool with the high temperatures the last couple of days so decided to go with persistence and forecast highs above guidance for Thursday. The thermal ridge looks to weaken Friday which should allow for temperatures to cool slowly through the weekend.
The storms we experience today will fire up in the vicinity of an area of low pressure and its associated frontal boundaries, all of which are currently situated over the south central plains and Ozark region and northeastward into the Great Lakes. The precipitation will become most widespread this afternoon and this evening, as a cold front dives southward out of the Great Lakes region and across the Ohio and Tennessee River valleys. They all agree that eastern troughing will retreat from Kentucky through the weekend while a strong ridge consolidates and builds over the Southern Plains.
645 AM EDT THU JUL 14 2016 Slow-moving vertically-stacked low pressure has reached James Bay early this morning. Initial cold front is in the process of moving thru our CWA attm. Narrow band of increased low level moisture along and just ahead of the cold front has provided both key ingredients. Narrow dry slot immediately behind the cold front early this morning will give way to plenty of wrap-around moisture advecting into Northern Michigan beginning mid to late morning and continuing thru the afternoon and tonight. Afternoon high temps will range from the lower 70s in Eastern Upper Michigan to the mid 80s near Saginaw Bay. as temps will be significantly cooler. A trough extending from the East coast into the Great Lakes will lead to cooler and less humid weather through the weekend.
329 AM CDT THU JUL 14 2016 The broad upper level trough continues to swing through the area this morning. A small disturbance embedded in the NW flow on the back side of the main trough will provide an increased chance for showers today. As an upper ridge begins to approach from the west tonight and Friday. A warm front looks to develop along the ND/SD border Friday night as an upper wave pushes east through the weak upper ridge centered in MT. A weak lead wave will push east along the warm front Friday night.
613 AM EDT THU JUL 14 2016 A typical summer pattern will persist over the next few days with high pressure well offshore and a trough of low pressure inland. A weak trough will linger across eastern North Carolina over the weekend. Tightened pressure gradient between offshore high pressure and inland trough will produce warm and humid conditions again tonight. Bermuda High continues to extend over from the western Atlantic and Piedmont trough inland through the forecast period. Low level thicknesses will slightly drop and 850mb temps btw 19-20 C which supports temps in the low/mid 90s inland to mid/upper 80s along the coast.
This pattern will continue through Friday before upper level ridging builds across the central plains. There could be a rejuvenation of storms this afternoon if the lower levels recover from this morning's stabilizing cool thunderstorm outflow. These could be severe as well but the details of this event will be strongly modulated by what happens with the lower level airmass leading up to Friday.
A cold front will back west across the plains early this morning advecting moisture into the plains and shifting winds northeasterly. Temperatures will be a bit cooler this afternoon with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s across the plains. Looks like another run of hot Summer weather ahead, as an upper ridge continues to dominate the weather picture for the Central Rockies. Best bet for afternoon and evening storms will be over the higher terrain, Pikes Peak region, and SE Plains. SPC currently has the area in a Marginal Risk, and this looks appropriate with the highest risk near the KS border.
Latest predawn satellite/RAP analysis had a flat subtropical ridge extending from the Lower Mississippi Valley through the Southwest Conus. This was associated with a series of short waves moving around the subtropical ridge. Over our area a weak mid level trough axis was noted over southeast Mississippi. Highs will range from the lower to middle 90s during the period. Lows will be from the lower to middle 70s.
420 AM EDT THU JUL 14 2016 Watch/Warning/Advisory Section for Marine Relief from the recent oppressive humidity is on it's way today, courtesy of a cold front sweeping through the area early this morning. A secondary cold front will drop south from Canada tonight and Friday, bringing considerable cloudiness and scattered rain showers. Highs Friday will be only in the lower to mid 70s.
A cold front may push the warm, moist air to the south on Friday. The diurnal factor alone would have the highest chance of convection this afternoon and evening. Upper trough will be settling over the region by Friday evening.
The cold front is still up over southwest Iowa and northwest Missouri. Northwest flow aloft looks like it should finally push the cold front southeast through the area by 18-21Z. Think this scenario looks reasonable if the low level jet develops as forecast.
139 AM EDT THU JUL 14 2016 A warm front will slide off the coast through tonight. High pressure becomes nearly stationary off the Southeast Coast through Friday.
A warming trend is underway for inland areas today and will continue through Friday as an upper level high builds in from the Desert Southwest. These warm conditions will persist through late in the week as cooler temperatures continue near the coast. Inland temperatures will cool back to near seasonal averages over the weekend as an upper level trough develops off of the West Coast.
A cold front will try to pass through the Mid Atlantic Region from the northwest late Thursday into Friday, then this front is forecast to stall over the Carolinas. A surface cold front extends from the western Great Lakes into the Central Plains, along the leading edge of an east bound upper level trough moving across the US Northern Plains and Canadian Prairie. Upstream activity over the Upper Midwest, Great Lakes, and Ohio Valley will remain active per clash between the tropical airmass over the Eastern Conus with the advancing upper level trough and surface cold front. For Thursday, the cold front approaches from the northwest, which will result in increasing convergence, shear and potential for organized deep convection.
625 AM EDT THU JUL 14 2016 Upper ridge across the region will weaken through early Friday with troughing moving in over the weekend. Not too much change in the overall airmass from yesterday with the upper ridge continuing to weaken a bit with an upper trough trapped beneath the ridge along the Tennessee Valley and Gulf coast states. Large hail potential will be low as temperatures aloft will remain warm and freezing level will be around 14.
Debris clouds and rain cooled air will limit showers first part of today, but as main front and mid level trough approach this afternoon still expect increasing showers and storms, especially south and east of Pittsburgh where better low level moisture and instability looks to reside. System will cross east of the ridges tonight with showers diminishing northwest to southeast as the night progresses.
Rather light winds and slight seas will continue for the next few days as weak high pressure holds across the waters.
It's upper level trough will pass through the Northland this evening. The passing trough will continue to spread showers into the Northland this afternoon into tonight, and the showers could linger continue through Thursday, but mainly south of Highway 2. While the upper trough will shift south Thursday, the cool and relatively humid flow will maintain the cloudy skies through Thursday, which will limit heating. Showers and thunderstorms will be diminishing from north to south Thursday evening as the upper trof and surface cold front exit the forecast area by 06Z Friday. High pressure covers the region on Friday. The high pressure remains over the region Friday night.
326 AM PDT THU JUL 14 2016 High pressure will provide warm and dry conditions through the end of the week. a trough will bring a cooling trend and stronger breezes during the weekend. HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD into CA today from the DESERT SOUTHWEST. EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO move into triple digits this afternoon across the high desert and San Joaquin Valley. THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO flatten and SHIFT EASTWARD during the weekend due to an upper trough moving through the Pacific NW and digging south INTO CENTRAL CA.
Temps were in the low to mid 70s. A short wave and pre-frontal trough across southeast Missouri early this morning will move southeast into the forecast area by this afternoon and expect increasing chances for scattered showers/storms. During this same time period, a trailing cold front should move southeast into central Missouri and into central Illinois areas by 00Z Tonight. The short term models indicate that the weakening cold front with another short wave at 500 millibars, should make it into west Tennessee and into south central Kentucky by 18z Friday.
With upper high in place, no rain mentioned again. Upper level ridge centered to the west will expand slightly eastward on Thursday.
Currently keeping an eye on two different MCSs located upstream, one over southern Missouri and one over southeast Oklahoma, moving southeastward along the periphery of a flat upper-level ridge extending from the Southern Plains westward to the Desert Southwest. Therefore, rain chances have been adjusted to show the highest chances in the western counties, especially the northwest.
259 AM CDT THU JUL 14 2016 Latest analysis shows fair skies with light westerly winds as drier and cooler air moves in.
230 AM PDT Thu Jul 14 2016 Drier and warmer weather is expected on Today.
1029 PM PDT Wed Jul 13 2016 Drier and warmer weather is expected on Thursday.
Otherwise, Cold front on track to move across SE Michigan during the early-mid afternoon period. Cold front arrives mid afternoon /19z-20z/. Dewpoints across all of Lower Michigan remain firmly in the upper 60s and low 70s this morning and the thermal ridge featuring 850mb temperatures of 16 to 17C remains over head for the time being. This airmass will slowly shift east through today as the trough currently centered over Minnesota shifts east. Over the SE CWA, increasing forcing along the lead edge of the trough will allow for an opportunity for scattered thunderstorm development between about noon and 4pm before instability and forcing shifts east. Benign cold advection type showers may impinge on the Saginaw Valley region by late afternoon as cooler cyclonic flow works into the Central Great Lakes.