Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
A WEAKENING UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO OPEN AND MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY THIS MORNING. AS THE UPPER DISTURBANCE DEPARTS WHILE WEAKENING A DRIER AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER IN AND WEAK RIDGING WILL BUILD IN.
1042 AM EST MON NOV 2 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK TO THE SOUTH TODAY.
435 AM MST MON NOV 2 2015 UPDATE TO AVIATION DISCUSSION UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING INLAND IN THE NW U. CONTINUING AT LEAST ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS MOISTURE WRAPS AROUND THE LOW MOVING THROUGH EASTERN MT. LOWER CONFIDENCE STILL EXISTS WITH LOWER ELEVATION SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION FORECASTS AS TEMPERATURES AND SNOW LEVELS WILL BE SOMEWHAT MARGINAL INITIALLY WITH WARMER GROUND TEMPERATURES ALSO LIKELY LIMITING ACCUMULATION ON ROADWAYS THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
Will continue with the current Dense Fog Advisory until 9 am for southeast Illinois and keep an eye on the potential northward expansion of the lower visibilities. The past few runs of the RAP and HRRR expand the lower vsbys north/northwest to the I-74 corridor whereas the Hi-res NAM holds the lower vsbys along and south of I-72 with more of a patchy look to the fog along the river valleys further north by 11z, which looks more reasonable.
FLOODING THREAT CONTINUES INTO THIS EVENING FOR MUCH OF NORTH AND WEST CENTRAL GEORGIA ALONG WITH ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT FOR UPPER LOW OVER EAST TX THIS MORNING FORECAST TO PULL NORTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS TONIGHT. THE NORTH REMAINS IN A WEDGE PATTERN WHILE THE SURFACE WARM FRONT PERSISTS VICINITY OF CENTRAL GA. MODELS INDICATE THE WARM FRONT MAY BE ALMOST STATIONARY AND THE WEDGE WILL PERSIST OVER THE NORTH THROUGH TONIGHT. ENOUGH SHEAR AND INSTABILITY EXIST IN THE WARM FRONT AREA TO SUPPORT A FEW STRONG OR POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL GA TODAY AND TONIGHT.
IN ASSOCIATION WITH A S/W TROF AND MID- LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING. AS THE PREVIOUSLY-MENTIONED S/W TROF AND FRONTOGENETIC FORCING BRUSHES THROUGH THE REGION. SFC/H8 WARM FRONTS WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY TUESDAY.
1027 AM EST MON NOV 2 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TODAY AND CREST OVERHEAD TONIGHT.
THESE HIGH AND A FEW MID CLOUDS SHOULD DECREASE TONIGHT UNDER UPPER RIDGING AS A STRONG WAVE BEGINS TO DIG A TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN USA. WILL KEEP HIGHS TODAY IN THE MID 60S NORTH TO THE LOWER 70S SOUTHEAST. TEMPERATURES COULD GET A LITTLE WARMER IF THE CLOUD COVER TURNS OUT TO BE THINNER THAN EXPECTED.
613 AM EST MON NOV 2 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.
914 AM EST MON NOV 2 2015 A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES MONDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE MIDWEEK WITH LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN SOUTH.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
815 AM MST MON NOV 2 2015 A STRONG PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE ENTIRE REGION TOMORROW.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING EAST NORTHEAST ACROSS EAST TEXAS AND NORTHERN LOUISIANA. LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WITH APPENDANT COLD FRONT FROM THERE SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL GULF AND WARM FROM NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND GEORGIA. THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE MOVING NORTHEAST TODAY. CURRENT SHOWERS AROUND THE LOCAL AREA ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW AND WILL BE MORE OF A NUISANCE THAN ANYTHING. AS THE UPPER TROUGH NEAR THE AREA TODAY SHIFTS EAST. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL QUICKLY BUILD IN OVER THE AREA AND SPREAD ACROSS THE ENTIRE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AND GULF OF MEXICO.
709 AM EST MON NOV 2 2015 CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING FEATURE CLOUD COVER OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF KENTUCKY ASSOCIATED WITH A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE AS IT CONTINUES TO TRACK EAST INTO THE LOWER APPALACHIAN REGION. AS THE CLOSED LOW OVER THE WESTERN GULF STATE OPEN AND EXIT THE NORTHEAST. CLEARING WILL BEGIN LATER THIS EVENING AS THE LOW EXITS TO THE EAST. IN FACT TIMING OF THE 500MB TROUGH EXITING BY 06Z TONIGHT WILL LEAD TO CLEARING AND DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT AGAIN TONIGHT. AS CLEARING CONTINUES INTO THE DAY ON TUESDAY AND MID LEVEL RIDGING SETS UP. SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW SWITCHING TO SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR WARMING TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER 70S ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE EXTENDED AS MODERATE RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE REGION.
507 AM CST MON NOV 2 2015 FOR 12Z TAFS /ISSUED 137 AM CST MON NOV 2 2015/ MID AND UPPER LEVEL LOW IS DEPICTED BY SATELLITE LOOPS IN SERN TX AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST TODAY AS AN OPEN WAVE. IN ADVANCE OF THE WAVE, A RATHER DISTINCT 8H WARM FRONT WAS FOCUSING CONVERGENCE ALONG AND NEAR THE I-20 CORRIDOR IN MS/AL/GA WITH 35-40KT FLOW RUNNING INTO IT FROM THE SOUTH.
A BROAD RIDGE WILL PROGRESS THRU THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVE. AHEAD OF A TROF THAT WILL MOVE IN FROM THE PAC LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. IT THEN WILL LIFT BACK N AS A WARM FRONT TONIGHT.
A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION TODAY WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD RAINFALL THIS MORNING AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION AND PERSIST THROUGH MIDWEEK. A COLD FRONT THAT HAD BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA YESTERDAY EVENING IS CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTHWARD THROUGH SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA THIS MORNING. PRECIPITATION ALONG THE BOUNDARY HAS INCREASED IN AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS AS THE MAIN MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT AS THE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE SHIFTS INLAND. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE NOTICEABLY COOLER TODAY AS THE COLDER AIR MASS SETTLES INTO THE REGION.
823 AM CST MON NOV 2 2015 TEMPERATURES HAVE CLIMBED ABOVE FREEZING THIS MORNING. SO UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REMOVE THE MENTION OF FREEZING RAIN IN THE JAMESTOWN AND CARRINGTON AREAS. GIVEN SUB FREEZING TEMPERATURES AS OF 12 UTC IN THE JAMESTOWN AND CARRINGTON AREAS. ADDED A MENTION OF FREEZING RAIN THROUGH 14 UTC WITH THIS UPDATE. MOSTLY CLOUDY ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS WITH THE SKY TRENDING CLEAR TO SCATTERED IN ITS WAKE ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA. FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONS FROM ZONAL TO MORE SOUTHWESTERLY TONIGHT AS A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE WESTERN CONUS.
528 AM CST MON NOV 2 2015 UPPER LOW OVER TEXAS. RIDGING SPANS THE OHIO VALLEY AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE RESIDES OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AND STARTING OUT A FEW DEGREES WARMER. SHOULD EASILY CLIMB 3-4 DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY.
It will bring the first significant snow event of the season to the High Sierra with widespread rain elsewhere. Still looks like a good bet that precipitation will ramp up this morning as large scale ascent increases along the front with the approach of the upper trough. Travel impacts will likely be increasing across the high passes over the northern Sierra (including I-80 and US-50) this morning as well as snow levels lower and moderate to heavy precipitation continues. Trough shifts east by Tuesday with some showers lingering along the Sierra crest. Ridging returns Wed/Thu with dry weather.
1016 AM EST MON NOV 2 2015 LOW PRESSURE LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD WILL WEAKEN IN GEORGIA THROUGH TONIGHT.
SOUTH FLORIDA WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DEEP RIDGE OVERHEAD. MORNING SOUNDING SHOWS INVERSION AROUND 700MB AND FAIRLY DRY AIRMASS ABOVE THE LOWEST LEVELS. LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL BE JUST TO THE NORTH KEEPING THE LOCAL WATERS UNDER LIGHT EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW AT 5-10KTS. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE FOR SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS RIDGE WILL KEEP TEMPS ABOVE AVERAGE WITH ADDITIONAL RECORDS POSSIBLE. DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S, SO IT'LL BE SULTRY WITH ONLY THE CALENDAR SAYING THAT IT'S FALL. THE RIDGE WILL KEEP LOWS/FRONTS WELL OFF TO OUR NORTH. SHOWER CHANCES INCREASE SLIGHTLY MID WEEK AS SOME CONVERGENCE AND INCREASED MOISTURE OCCURS NORTH OF A PASSING TROUGH MOVING WEST ACROSS THE CARIB.
A DEEP AND WELL STACKED ANTICYCLONE REMAINS ACROSS THE EXTREME WESTERN ATLANTIC. ASIDE FROM THE DEFORMATION OF THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS BY A WESTERN MOVING TROUGH NEAR EASTERN CUBA. CORRESPONDING TO THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE ANTICYCLONE TO OUR NORTHEAST AND THE UPPER TROUGH TO OUR SOUTHEAST. AN ATLANTIC RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
An upper level trough was over the Pacific Northwest. At the surface, relative high pressure had shifted east across the OH river valley with a general area of low pressure from the southern high plains through the northern plains. With the warm air advection and potential increase in clouds, have also bumped up lows into the lower 50s. Pressure gradient through the column becomes very tight through the region as the southwest trough deepens over the Four Corners Region.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE CLOSER TO THE LOW TRACK OVER SE GA.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN ALONG THE WEST COAST OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.
1042 AM EST MON NOV 2 2015 HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA WILL SHIFT TO ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AS A WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS AL/GA/CAROLINAS TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH THE WEAK FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH IT SETTLING INTO THE AREA AND WASHING OUT TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT.
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA TODAY AND GENERATE ISOLATED SHOWERS. A FEW SHOWERS WILL PROBABLY STILL SPRING UP WITH THE HEATING OF THE DAY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND INLAND. WED IS STILL LOOKING DRY AND STABLE AS A RIDGE ALOFT BUILDS CLOSER TO THE WEST COAST. THE MAIN IMPACT THROUGH MID WEEK WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR FROST AND FREEZING OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES IN THE INTERIOR AS THE AIR MASS SLOWLY DRIES OUT THROUGH MID WEEK. HOWEVER AREAS OF LATE NIGHT FROST AND FREEZING EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES IN SOME OF THE INTERIOR VALLEY ARE EXPECTED. RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVING THROUGH THE AREA HAS GRADUALLY SHIFTED SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS MENDOCINO COUNTY.
945 AM EST MON NOV 2 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.
627 AM EST MON NOV 2 2015 LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST TO CROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES TODAY. ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO RIDGE IN FROM THE NORTH.
THE 300MB JET WILL SHIFT NORTH OF MINNESOTA AS IT DIGS A DEEP TROF ACROSS THE WEST COAST. THE WEAK SFC COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD. THE STRONG ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL MAKE A SHARP CHANGE ON TUESDAY AS A STRONG LONG WAVE TROF DIGS INTO THE SOUTHWEST STATES.
AND ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE IN THE HIGH COUNTRY.
PUSHING E/ENE ALONG AND NORTH OF A WARM FRONT FROM SD TO IA. SYNOPTIC PATTERN EVOLUTION AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER: THE WARM FRONT AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES ALOFT PUSH INTO NRN MICHIGAN TODAY. WITH THE LOWER HALF OF THE 60S IN NRN LOWER. THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF US TONIGHT WITH RISING MID LEVEL HEIGHTS AND NO EXPECTATION FOR ANY RAINFALL. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 40S. ON TOP OF THE WARM FRONT MOVING NORTH, THE 500 MB RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AS WELL.
640 AM CST MON NOV 2 2015 GIVEN SUB FREEZING TEMPERATURES AS OF 12 UTC IN THE JAMESTOWN AND CARRINGTON AREAS. ADDED A MENTION OF FREEZING RAIN THROUGH 14 UTC WITH THIS UPDATE. MOSTLY CLOUDY ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS WITH THE SKY TRENDING CLEAR TO SCATTERED IN ITS WAKE ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA. FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONS FROM ZONAL TO MORE SOUTHWESTERLY TONIGHT AS A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE WESTERN CONUS.
EXCEPT AT THE HIGHEST POINTS OF THE FRONT RANGE WHERE GUSTS IN THE 40-50 MPH RANGE. WITH THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING TO OUR EAST AND THE SHARP UPPER TROUGH SWINGING DOWN OVER THE GREAT BASIN. COULD SEE SIMILAR CONDITIONS DEVELOP FOR A FEW HOURS IN THE FOOTHILLS OF DOUGLAS/SRN JEFFERSON COUNTIES AND IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF ERN PARK COUNTY. FOR TUESDAY THERE WILL BE AN INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH THE DEEPENING TROF OVER THE GREAT BASIN.
COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE AREA YESTERDAY IS NOW STALLED OUT IN THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA. TROUGH AXIS IS NOW JUST OFF THE PACIFIC COAST AND IS MOVING INLAND. BY TUESDAY MIDDAY THE TROUGH AXIS IS EXPECTED TO BE SHIFTING TO THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CWA.
Through tonight the upper flow over the central Plains will gradually back to the southwest as an upper level trough digs into the western states. This will force lee troughing at the surface along the eastern slopes of the Rockies, resulting in a tightening pressure gradient and increasing southerly flow over the central and southern Plains.
TOMORROW IS LOOKING A BIT WARMER YET THAN THIS AFTERNOON. A BROAD RIDGE WILL PROGRESS THRU THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVE. AHEAD OF A TROF THAT WILL MOVE IN FROM THE PAC LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. IT THEN WILL LIFT BACK N AS A WARM FRONT TONIGHT.
701 AM EST MON NOV 2 2015 A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY THIS WEEK.
615 AM EST MON NOV 2 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
602 AM EST MON NOV 2 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE SLOWLY TO THE EAST COAST AND A WARM SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE MUCH OF THE WEEK.
SUNNY AND DRY CONDITIONS WL THEN PREVAIL DUE TO WEAK HIGH PRESSURE. DRY AND PLEASANT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY AS RIDGING AT ALL LVLS DOMINATES. GENERALLY WENT WITH THE WARMER ENVELOPE OF TEMPS FOR THE HIGHS AND COOLER ENVELOPE FOR THE LOWS TNT.
An upper level low centered over eastern TX/western LA continues to move northeast away from the area. In its wake, we will have very dry air aloft with zonal flow today, while at the surface, high pressure will slowly move east as well. The departing high pressure will turn our winds to the south/southwest today at the surface. With mainly sunny skies, and south winds, we can expect a warmer day with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s. To our west, an upper level trough is strengthening off the west coast. As this trough deepens, our flow will become increasingly southwest aloft, maintaining a surface lee trough to the northwest through tonight. This will keep southerly flow in place tonight, and allow for slightly warmer temperatures for overnight lows.
We have issued a Winter Storm Watch for locations above 6000ft in southern Lemhi County (beginning this evening), as well as for the benches around Butte and the higher elevation valleys of Philipsburg & Georgetown Lake (both beginning early Tuesday morning). Farther north, models still struggle a bit in handling the wrap around moisture, but we believe sufficient snowfall will fall near/around Butte, and especially in the higher terrain surrounding the Butte region (Georgetown Lake, Philipsburg & Homestake Pass) - enough to pose a significant impact to travel. 4 to 6 inches (locally up to 8 inches near the Continental Divide) of snow are expected across the higher terrain, with a slushy 2 to 4 inches of snow in Butte proper.
924 AM EST MON NOV 2 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE SLOWLY TO THE EAST COAST AND A WARM SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE MUCH OF THE WEEK.
/ISSUED 210 AM CST MON NOV 2 2015/ UPPER-LOW/TROUGH CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND MIGRATE EAST ACROSS THE REGION.
WV imagery shows dry, NW flow aloft in the wake of an upper-lvl trough entering the lwr MS valley. Temps should top out this afternoon and Tuesday a couple of cats above normal, before dropping off during the week as thicknesses decrease w/the approach of the trough.
733 AM EST MON NOV 2 2015 AN ANOMALOUS UPPER LVL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS THIS WEEK.
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL INCREASE TODAY AS A STRONG TROUGH AND CLOSED LOW AMPLIFY OVER THE WESTERN US BRINGING WELL ABOVE HIGH TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE INCOMING WEATHER SYSTEM'S ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. TUESDAY WILL BE A PARTICULARLY WINDY DAY AHEAD OF THE STRONG COLD FRONT SITUATED OVER THE WASATCH RANGE BY MIDDAY TUESDAY THANKS TO A STRONG TEMPERATURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE WARM HIGH PRESSURE AND THE -25C COLD CORE LOW. STRONG COLD FRONT BRINGS WINTER LIKE WEATHER TO THE HIGH COUNTRY WITH ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL LIKELY.
627 AM EST MON NOV 2 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TODAY BRINGING DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH SOME CLOUDS AND HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S.
AHEAD OF A PACIFIC TROUGH WHICH WILL SETTLE INTO THE GREAT BASIN FOR THE MIDWEEK PERIOD. FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE WEEKEND.
DRY AND PLEASANT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY AS RIDGING AT ALL LVLS DOMINATES. GENERALLY WENT WITH THE WARMER ENVELOPE OF TEMPS FOR THE HIGHS AND COOLER ENVELOPE FOR THE LOWS TNT.
A MID LEVEL TROUGH IS PUSHING INTO THE MIDSOUTH THIS MORNING WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY SOUTH OF I-40. THE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH EAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH RAIN CHANCES COMING TO AN END BUT LOW CLOUDS WILL REMAIN TRAPPED ACROSS THE AREA. THIS IS TYPICALLY UNDER WEAK SURFACE RIDGING WITH LITTLE/WEAK ADVECTION AS WE HEAD INTO THE COOL SEASON. WEAK SURFACE RIDGING CONTINUES WITH LITTLE TO PUSH OR MIX THE CLOUDS OUT.
935 AM EST MON NOV 2 2015 AN ANOMALOUS UPPER LVL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS THIS WEEK.
LIGHT NORTHERLIES WILL BECOME VARIABLE AS HIGH PRESSURE TRANSITIONS ACROSS EAST TEXAS.
Temperatures today/tonight will be similar to slightly warmer than yesterday. The flow is expected to become more amplified through mid-week, with ridge axis from the southeast U. into the upper Mississippi valley, while a deep large scale trough sets up over the western U.
942 AM EST MON NOV 2 2015 A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY THIS WEEK.
WITH STRONG UPPER TROUGHING DIGGING THROUGH THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND HEADING TOWARD THE DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO MIDWEEK. BROAD CONFLUENT/ZONAL FLOW RESIDES OVER MUCH OF THE LOWER 48 AT THE MOMENT. WITH ANOTHER BOUT OF DEEPER LAYER FGEN FORCING PROGGED TO LAY OUT JUST NORTH OF A SURFACE AND ELEVATED WARM FRONT WORKING THROUGH THE AREA. SAID CLOUDS AND LIMITED MIXING NORTH OF THE SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL LIKELY AID IN HOLDING DOWN TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES. EFFECTIVELY PUNTING THE SURFACE WARM FRONT NORTH OF THE CWA AND PUSHING ALL OF US SQUARELY IN THE WARM (AND CLOUD FREE) SECTOR.
721 AM EST MON NOV 2 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE SLOWLY TO THE EAST COAST AND A WARM SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE MUCH OF THE WEEK.
844 AM EST MON NOV 2 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL TAKE CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER THROUGH MID-WEEK WITH FAIR SKIES AND INCREASINGLY MILD AIR.
EXPECT STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN ARIZONA AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES.
A WARM FRONT INVOF THE IA-MN BORDER WILL MAKE SLIGHT NORTHWARD PROGRESS. WITH VALUES IN THE LOWER 80S.
354 AM MST MON NOV 2 2015 UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING INLAND IN THE NW U. CONTINUING AT LEAST ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS MOISTURE WRAPS AROUND THE LOW MOVING THROUGH EASTERN MT. LOWER CONFIDENCE STILL EXISTS WITH LOWER ELEVATION SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION FORECASTS AS TEMPERATURES AND SNOW LEVELS WILL BE SOMEWHAT MARGINAL INITIALLY WITH WARMER GROUND TEMPERATURES ALSO LIKELY LIMITING ACCUMULATION ON ROADWAYS THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
719 AM CST MON NOV 2 2015 THE 12Z SOUNDING CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME LINGERING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG BELOW A WEAK INVERSION AND THERMAL TROUGH THIS MORNING. THE THERMAL TROUGH SHOULD ERODE THIS MORNING.
FAIRLY STRONG NEARLY ZONAL FLOW WAS IN PLACE AT 500 MB OVER THE NRN HALF OF THE LOWER 48S AT 00Z. A STRONG TROUGH WAS OFF THE WEST COAST. AS OF 06Z IT APPEARED THAT THE TROUGH WAS STRENGTHENING AND 12 HOUR HEIGHT FALLS WERE NOW OVER 120 METERS. THE NAM IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE LOW LEVEL RH.
Cooler temperatures will likely result as well today. Weakening upper low will continue to move northeast from the Lower Mississippi Valley into the Tennessee Valley today.
632 AM EST MON NOV 2 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TODAY BRINGING DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH SOME CLOUDS AND HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S.
THE COLD FRONT THAT HAS BEEN ADVERTISED IS SLOWLY SLIDING INTO THE FORECAST AREA. WITH SOME LOCATIONS TRENDED TOWARDS THE HIGHER MEMBERS OF THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS OF THE HRRR AND SREF. THE UPPER TROUGH THAT HAS BROUGHT ALL THIS TO US WILL PUSH THROUGH OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW NIGHT. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL SPREAD PRECIPITATION FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY. WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 KTS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE RIDGES AND ACROSS THE EASTERN KERN COUNTY DESERT.
537 AM EST MON NOV 2 2015 A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES MONDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE MIDWEEK WITH LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN SOUTH.
626 AM EST MON NOV 2 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL TAKE CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER THROUGH MID-WEEK WITH FAIR SKIES AND INCREASINGLY MILD AIR.
/ISSUED 313 AM CST MON NOV 2 2015/ EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS AN UPPER LOW MOVING INTO EAST/SOUTHEAST TEXAS WHILE THE IR LOOP SHOWS CLEARING SKIES GENERALLY WEST OF I-35. THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST TODAY AS WEAK UPPER RIDGING AND DRY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT MOVE OVER THE REGION AHEAD OF OUR NEXT UPPER SYSTEM.
1014 AM EST MON NOV 2 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TODAY BRINGING DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH SOME CLOUDS AND HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S.
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK BY TO OUR SOUTHEAST.
650 AM EST MON NOV 2 2015 AN ANOMALOUS UPPER LVL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS THIS WEEK.
AHEAD OF A PACIFIC TROUGH WHICH WILL SETTLE INTO THE GREAT BASIN FOR THE MIDWEEK PERIOD. FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE WEEKEND. PACIFIC TROUGH IS CURRENTLY DIGGING ALONG THE WEST COAST THIS MORNING. AS THE PACIFIC TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG ALONG THE COAST TODAY. AS THE TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE INLAND TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. MAY NEED TO CONSIDER EXTENDING THE HIGH WARNINGS IN BOTH AREA AND TIME WITH THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE.
620 AM EST MON NOV 2 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TODAY AND CREST OVERHEAD TONIGHT.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE FOR SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS RIDGE WILL KEEP TEMPS ABOVE AVERAGE WITH ADDITIONAL RECORDS POSSIBLE. DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S, SO IT'LL BE SULTRY WITH ONLY THE CALENDAR SAYING THAT IT'S FALL. THE RIDGE WILL KEEP LOWS/FRONTS WELL OFF TO OUR NORTH. SHOWER CHANCES INCREASE SLIGHTLY MID WEEK AS SOME CONVERGENCE AND INCREASED MOISTURE OCCURS NORTH OF A PASSING TROUGH MOVING WEST ACROSS THE CARIB.
Weakening upper low will continue to move northeast from the Lower Mississippi Valley into the Tennessee Valley today.
235 PM CST WED FEB 17 2016 WEAK RIDGE AXIS REMAINS POSITIONED FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE NORTHWESTERN GULF. THE HUNTSVILLE CWA IS ON THE SOUTHERN EXPANSE OF THIS CLOUD DECK WHICH IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE H9-H8 THERMAL TROUGH. THIS TROUGH SHOULD BE EXITING OFF TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS THE MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF TIME.
343 PM EST WED FEB 17 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO NORTH CAROLINA FROM THE NORTH THROUGH THURSDAY. BUT WITH THE LOW-LEVEL THERMAL THROUGH CENTERED OVER THE AREA.
329 PM CST WED FEB 17 2016 PATCHY FOG AND POSSIBLE LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE IS IN THE FORECAST TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY AHEAD OF A MILD THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WE CHOSE TO KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THE FORECAST OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL ND TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING IN RESPECT TO THE DEEPENING MOIST LAYER BENEATH THE INVERSION SEEN ON MODEL-DERIVED FORECAST SOUNDINGS. WHICH IS SUGGESTIVE OF A VERY LOW PROBABILITY OF BONAFIDE LIGHT FREEZING RAIN NEAR THE PEAK OF THE WARM-ADVECTIVE REGIME. WE THUS ARE NOT PARTICULARLY IMPRESSED WITH FREEZING DRIZZLE RISK EVEN THOUGH IT WAS HIGH ENOUGH TO STILL INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST. FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR THE MAGIC FREEZING THRESHOLD AND THEREFORE A MIX OF RAIN. FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW APPEARS POSSIBLE.