Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
943 PM CST Thu Nov 10 2016 Still dealing with mid and high level cloud cover streaming ovhd from the south and southwest due in part to a stubborn area of low pressure across old Mexico and ssw flow aloft downstream of the trough across our region.
Unseasonably warm and record-breaking temperatures will be returned to normal levels in the wake of a cold frontal passage this evening. With H8 temperatures dropping from 13 to 15 C today to -5 to -8 C tomorrow, expect high temperatures to be 15 to 25 degrees cooler. Clouds will decrease from west to east during the late morning and afternoon as high pressure builds into the region. Gusty north to northwest winds behind the front will also subside as the high arrives. Friday Night Through Thursday 500MB ridge across the central plains will flatten this weekend with zonal flow expected over the western Great Lakes.
The wind direction will be primarily westerly until a cold front veers the wind to the north Friday afternoon. /ISSUED 321 PM CST Thu Nov 10 2016/ An upper low can be seen on satellite spinning over Northern Mexico this afternoon, providing a steady stream of Pacific moisture and associated high cloudcover northeastward across Central and South Texas. At the surface, a high pressure ridge extends from North Texas into Arkansas. Weak isentropic ascent continues over our far southern counties above the cool high pressure dome, but moisture and lift appear too minimal for anything more than some low clouds and a few sprinkles. A seasonably cool and mostly clear night tonight will give way to mostly sunny and warmer conditions (highs in the mid 70s) Friday.
750 PM MST Thu Nov 10 2016 High pressure at the surface and aloft continues to maintain clear skies and light winds across the forecast area. Central and Southwest Montana are under a high pressure ridge which will keep the air mass dry and stable.
Quiet weather will continue across the ArkLaMiss region as a cooler and drier airmass remains in place influenced by high pressure at the surface and aloft. Sunny skies and light north winds will keep conditions on the cool side during the day with highs in the lower 70s expected once again on Friday. Some high clouds could be expected across western counties and parishes which would disrupt these ideal cooling conditions and result in lows dipping to the lower to mid 40s.
There is a cold front that is moving through the area. The cold front will continue to move through the forecast area this afternoon and by evening, should be most of the way through the forecast area. Clear skies are expected to continue tonight into Friday, but after the front moves through today, the temperatures will be cooler.
1039 PM EST Thu Nov 10 2016 A gusty southwesterly flow of mild air will persist tonight into early Friday, before a strong but relatively dry cold front drops south through the state.
Overnight lows either side of 40 degrees (F) are forecast, with a few locations that could fall just outside the lower end of this range. Upper-level moisture fields show a plume of higher humidity values advecting toward Alabama this evening and Friday around a meandering upper low centered along the Mexico and Arizona/New Mexico border land.
Our breezy northerly winds gusting to 20-25kts will quickly diminish with the loss of daytime heating, as cool/dry high pressure builds in from the northwest. Continued to go on the low side, or even lower than guidance for temps tonight as PW values fall to around 0.
822 PM EST Thu Nov 10 2016 Ideal radiational cooling conditions tonight, with cool and dry high pressure centered over the region, will support a chilly night with min temps about 10 degrees below normal for most locations. After a chilly start, a large diurnal temperature swing is expected for Friday as ample sunshine and mid level ridging give temps a boost into the upper 70s, a few degrees above normal.
907 PM EST Thu Nov 10 2016 A gusty southwesterly flow of mild air will persist tonight into early Friday, before a strong but relatively dry cold front drops south through the state.
620 PM EST Thu Nov 10 2016 A cold front will pass through the region Friday bringing the coldest air of the season to the area Friday night with a widespread freeze expected. Lows tonight will bottom out in the low to mid 40s. Mild swrly flow this aftn will swing around to the north late tonight in association with a fast moving cold front trailing from short amplitude trough shifting through srn QB. Cold front will cross the area overnight but abundant dry air will prevent any significant aviation impact.
High pressure from Saskatchewan and eastern Montana will move east across western and central North Dakota tonight and then into Minnesota on Friday.
348 PM MST Thu Nov 10 2016 High pressure continues to dominate the forecast over the central Rockies on Thursday afternoon.
947 PM EST Thu Nov 10 2016 High pressure will build over the region through mid week. A strong cold front will sweep through area Friday morning, followed by cooler continental high pressure filling in over the weekend. High pressure will hold across the region overnight as a weak lee-side trough develops across the Carolina Foothills. Surface dew points have rebounded into the lower to mid 40s at many observation sites at 02Z and recent trends suggest our forecast temps should be in good shape overall.
After looking at current temps, decided to decrease the lows in a couple of locations.
943 PM EST Thu Nov 10 2016 A cold front will bring a few light showers to central New York Friday morning.
647 PM CST Thu Nov 10 2016 Coolest air behind today's cold front arrives tonight and the leading edge of the airmass is moving into far southeastern Manitoba. A secondary cold front dropping through southern Mb/Ontario will clip nw Mn overnight bringing another shot of cold advection to this area. High pressure centered over the fa Friday morning will shift east during the day with some weak return flow/warm advection mainly from the valley west. With cooler thermal profile temperatures will be much closer to seasonal averages but still on the warm side of averages.
An upper trof swings across the Great Lakes region and into the interior eastern states, meanwhile beginning to phase with a weakening cut off low centered near the New Mexico/Mexico border. Lows tonight will range from the upper 30s inland to the lower 40s closer to the coast. Highs on Friday will be in the lower to mid 70s.
A cold front is moving into the area though, which will bring cooler temperatures the next 3 days. We dip below freezing Friday night with high pressure overhead, when lows again drop into the mid to upper 20s.
As the mid Mississippi River valley remains fixed between a closed upper low in the Southwest and a deep trough in the Northeast, we'll continue receiving dry northwest flow aloft and a dry forecast through the weekend.
The upper level low remains positioned over northern Mexico. This upper level low will gradually open up and lift further away from the region as an upper trough moves down into the Great Lakes and Northeast. Less cloud cover tonight in Friday will allow for cooler temperatures tonight (mid 50s to lower 60s) and warmer highs (mid 70s).
A dry cold front will pass through the area overnight, bringing a cool down for the weekend. A cold front will sag through the area but with no moisture to work with will not result in precipitation. The quiet fall weather pattern will continue throughout the extended as high pressure largely remains in control across the region.
Upper ridge remains in place tonight through Friday night with mostly clear skies and temperatures remaining above normal.
The longwave ridge remains anchored over the western U. Skies will stay mostly clear on Friday, with afternoon temperatures nearing 70 degrees in the lower valleys.
1025 PM EST Thu Nov 10 2016 High pressure will continue to build into the region through Friday. A cold front with limited moisture will cross the region Friday night, ushering in dry and much cooler weather for the weekend.
601 PM CST Thu Nov 10 2016 1027 mb high pressure over central Texas and ridging northeast into KY/WV was providing a sunny, breezy and seasonably mild afternoon across central IL. A cold front extended from nw parts of IA/WI into nw KS. Nearby high pressure aloft and at the surface was giving sunny skies across IL and Midwest today. Latest forecast models sweep the cold front southeast across central IL later this evening and thru southeast IL overnight. Winds could be gusting 15-25 mph on Friday and bringing in cooler air. Lows overnight will be mostly in the lower 40s. Highs Friday range from the low to mid 50s from I-72 north to the upper 50s to near 60F in southeast IL.
615 PM EST Thu Nov 10 2016 High pressure will build over the region through mid week. A strong cold front will sweep through area Friday morning, followed by cooler continental high pressure filling in over the weekend. High pressure will hold across the region tonight as a weak lee-side trough develops across the Carolina Foothills. The pressure gradient is forecast to tighten a bit closer to sunrise in response to a sharpening of the lee- side trough, but suspect the nocturnal inversion will be strong enough by that point to preclude any significant boundary layer recoupling.
Update No major update tonight with high pressure in control of the weather overnight.
702 PM EST Thu Nov 10 2016 Aviation Gusty southwest winds continued this afternoon across the lower peninsula of Michigan in advance of a cold front.
With drier air in the lower levels, VFR conditions are expected to persist through the period with high clouds gradually diminishing during the day Friday.
810 PM EST Thu Nov 10 2016 A mostly dry cold front crosses Friday, with very dry and much cooler air for the weekend.
High pressure will maintain dry and mild weather through Friday.
Gusts in southwesterly flow ahead of a southward slinking cold front seem to mainly continue to be contained to upslope areas this evening. However, with the 850 hPa jet diving southward overnight, this will likely allow for some uptick in the winds over the ridges, but it would be surprising if much of this mixed down to the surface through the nighttime hours. A few showers will be possible with this, however given the lean moisture profiles, generally just PoPs for isolated showers, especially in the ridges, seem like the most favored scenario. Fries Sprawling high pressure will push southeast Friday evening, quickly drying out any remaining moisture and therefore bringing an end to remaining showers and clouds.
317 PM MST Thu Nov 10 2016 High pressure at the surface and aloft have brought another sunny day to the state. Cooler northerly winds have prevailed this afternoon, but temperatures still made it to the lower 70s in a couple spots. Cooler temperatures are expected to continue through tomorrow as northerly flow brings more air from the northern plains this evening. Morning temperatures will drop to the lower 30s, then afternoon temperatures should rise back to the mid and upper 50s. Upper level ridging will be over the state as the upper low shifts to the south.
A cool northerly flow will produce low temps in the low to mid 50s across most of east central FL which is 5 to 7 degrees below normal. High pressure ridge well north of Florida will keep conditions dry over the next 24 hours.
The upper level ridge will continue to dominate the forecast in the short term.
Isolated showers continue along the western periphery of an upper level low that is centered over the northern state of Chihuahua, mainly affecting Crockett County. High temperatures on Friday will range from the upper 60s across the western counties (where more cloud cover is forecast), to the low 70s elsewhere.
552 PM CST Thu Nov 10 2016 Initial cold front or wind shift line moved across central and southern Minnesota this afternoon. A secondary cold front and associated short wave, was evident across northern Manitoba this afternoon. Highs tomorrow will be closer to normal with readings in the low to mid 40s.
Thus, have lowered overnight lows into the lower to mid 20s for much of western and central North Dakota per these observed trends. High pressure from Saskatchewan and eastern Montana will move east across western and central North Dakota tonight and then into Minnesota on Friday.
Temperatures are expected to be slightly warmer overnight tonight, negating the chance for widespread frost forming. Lows will bottom out in the low to mid 40s, with a few areas touching the upper 30s near the Tennessee River Valley where patchy frost is possible. Upper level flow will shift northwesterly during the day tomorrow and allow a weak dry cold front to move through the region.
620 PM EST Thu Nov 10 2016 High pressure will slide south of the area tonight. A strong, dry cold front will approach Friday morning and move offshore late Friday. Cool high pressure will build in from the northwest over the weekend.
An upper level ridge and low level offshore flow will produce dry and mild weather through Friday morning.
In between these two features, an mid- upper level ridge is gaining real estate into the Mississippi River valley and the southern Appalachians (see 12-hr height changes 00Z RAOBS). From synopsis, high pressure will remain in place over the Southeastern United States overnight. Meanwhile, a weak cold front will pass through the Florida Keys early Friday.
515 PM EST Thu Nov 10 2016 A mostly dry cold front crosses Friday, with very dry and much cooler air for the weekend.
At the surface, a cold front was moving through northwest KS. The weak forcing associated with the closed upper low that may try to move into southern KS overnight should not have much moisture to work with. The cold front should move through by sunrise Friday with some weak cold air advection impacting central KS through the day. So have gone a few degrees warmer than what simple mixing would suggest with highs ranging from the mid 50s across central KS to the lower 60s along the OK state line. Lows tonight should not be as cool since models keep the boundary layer better mixed behind the cold front.
940 PM EST Thu Nov 10 2016 High pressure will slide south of the area tonight. A strong, dry cold front will approach Friday morning and move offshore late Friday. Cool high pressure will build in from the northwest over the weekend.
547 PM MST Thu Nov 10 2016 High pressure continues to dominate the forecast over the central Rockies on Thursday afternoon.
There also are indications among hi res guidance that elevated showers could develop across the western CWA tomorrow as a weak disturbance pivots through the base of the low across Mexico and into the region. The large upper level low continues to spin nearly stationary to our west. The main story in the short-term forecast will be the continued cloud cover and cooler temperatures.
The 7 pm EDT regional surface analysis showed an area of high pressure across the Southeast, as upper level heights were on the rise. Although the airmass across our region was not "cool" by autumn standards, it was quite dry, and this combination of dry air and light winds will allow temperatures to cool to the lower to mid 40s by dawn.
A cold front is expected to pass thru dry later tonight as the column is too dry now with far too little opportunity to moisten up before FROPA. Due to the late passage of the front tonight, min temps should be several degrees higher than last night, with most locations in the lower to mid 40s with some of the better sheltered areas still able to dip into the 30s. North to northeast surface winds behind the cold front will prevail on Friday with skies remaining clear.
918 PM EST Thu Nov 10 2016 High pressure centered over the lower Mississippi Valley will extend into our area through tonight. A dry cold front will move across North Carolina on Friday. Cool Canadian high pressure will build into the region for the weekend. After recording afternoon highs in the low and mid 60s, temperatures at mid evening across most of the region were already in the 40s.
656 PM EST Thu Nov 10 2016 High pressure will continue to build into the region through Friday. A cold front with limited moisture will cross the region Friday night, ushering in dry and much cooler weather for the weekend.
A dry cold front will pass through the area overnight, bringing a cool down for the weekend. but the cooler air is well behind the front. Still looks like overnight low temperatures in the lower or middle 40s. The quiet fall weather pattern will continue throughout the extended as high pressure largely remains in control across the region.
852 PM EST Thu Nov 10 2016 High pressure will shift south of the region tonight, as a weak cold front moves through the area early on Friday, with no precipitation expected. This cold front will cross the Ohio Valley early Friday morning, keeping overnight lows relatively warm around 40 degrees compared to last night's low to mid 30s. High amplitude troughing over the eastern half of the US and Canada is gradually moving east, with one segment shearing out as it enters the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley regions. A reasonably-well-defined cold front is expected to move through the region Friday morning, but with the very dry air mass in place, very little impact is expected to the weather. Despite the presence of the cold front on Friday, temperatures are still expected to be generally diurnal, though cooler than on Thursday.
and will not be expecting any given the very dry airmass at the lower-levels. /ISSUED 310 PM CST Thu Nov 10 2016/ Afternoon water vapor imagery shows an upper low churning near the New Mexico bootheel, with southwest flow aloft around this feature channeling Pacific moisture in the form of mid and high clouds across Southeast Texas.
/Tonight through Friday/ A weak cold front will progress across the forecast area and be East and South of the state between 03Z and 06Z. We will be in between systems Friday with a building ridge to the West and a trough to the East that will undercut the ridge. Lows tonight will not be as cold as Friday night with readings mainly in the lower to mid 30's to around 40 across the far South. Canadian high pressure will be over the state Friday night and will set the stage for prime radiational cooling conditions.
This leaves the forecast area within a relative upper ridge or col point within the flow. At the surface, a cold front was moving through the plains and moving into northwest KS at 2030Z. A prefrontal trough was noted across central KS into the upper midwest. The 12Z TOP RAOB shows a dry airmass over the area and the cold front to the northwest is progged to move through late tonight. Because of this lows are forecast to be around 40. With this in mind, have highs in the mid and upper 50s which is a couple degrees warmer than what simple mixing would suggest.
Closed low spinning stationary near the New Mexico bootheel, with any clouds associated with the cyclonic circulation remaining to our south. Comfortable temperatures in the lower 70s this afternoon, courtesy of downslope prefrontal compression and SW winds of 10-20 mph. A dry cold front passage is expected across SW KS tonight. After several hours of light and variable winds this evening, winds will becoming NE and increase in velocity behind the cold front overnight. Much cooler. This will ensure most locations remain in the 50s Friday, some 15 degrees cooler than Thursday's readings.
Winds will start decreasing by mid evening as the pressure gradient relaxes behind this morning's cold frontal passage.
400 PM MST Thu Nov 10 2016 Latest upper air analysis shows the cut-off low nearly stationary over Northern Mexico with a ridge arching over the Intermountain West. At the surface a cold front was over the Northern Plains accompanying a subtle upper level short wave trough southward. Behind the trough winds had turned to the north and were breezy at times. Tonight the cold front will move through the area. Highs will be 15-20 degrees cooler than today.
Low temperatures will fall into the lower 40s across a greater portion of the area than previously expected. Increasing cirrus across the northwest will likely slow the temperature fall later this evening and through the night, but a few locations may still fall to around 40 as a weak cold front progresses through late tonight. Cold front will move into far northwest Oklahoma toward 12Z and continue southward over rest of terminals through 18Z.
549 PM CST Thu Nov 10 2016 For the 00Z TAFs, a cold front will move across the terminal sites later tonight with north winds in its wake.
Scattered/broken high clouds will spread into the area tonight in deformation zone located well northeast of main upper low currently west of El Paso.
Cold front will move into far northwest Oklahoma toward 12Z and continue southward over rest of terminals through 18Z.
A midlevel trough and a weak cold front approaching from the north late in the day will bring some scattered to broken clouds around 5 kft to TRI and TYS late in the TAF period, along with a shift of winds to the N and an increase to around 10 kts.
854 PM EST Thu Nov 10 2016 A dry and cooler air mass continues to filter into the region in the wake of a frontal passage.
Southwesterly flow ahead of a southward slinking cold front is generally on the decrease this evening as incipient inversions have formed across the area. However, with the 850 hPa jet diving southward overnight, this will likely allow for some uptick in the winds over the ridges, but it would be surprising if much of this mixed down to the surface through the nighttime hours. Fries Sprawling high pressure will push southeast Friday evening, quickly drying out any remaining moisture and therefore bringing an end to remaining showers and clouds.
A colder night is expected in the wake of the dry cold frontal passage today. Temperatures even a bit cooler than today as cooler air invades our area behind the passing cold front of today.
625 PM EST Thu Nov 10 2016 High pressure centered over the lower Mississippi Valley will extend into our area through tonight. A dry cold front will move across North Carolina on Friday. Cool Canadian high pressure will build into the region for the weekend.
A dry sfc front will move through the area late tonight with high pressure beginning to build in from the north on Friday. Daytime highs will be cooler Fri compared to today.
An approaching trough will send increased cloud cover across the area today, with best coverage anticipated over SE Oregon. Increasing pressure gradient with the impending arrival of the trough will aid in the development of areas of increased wind this afternoon, though should not be of any significance across the valleys. A cold front will be associated with this trough, and this will help cool the max temperatures 5 to 10 degrees Sunday when compared to today. Clouds will begin to clear from west to east late Sunday as the trough moves off into Montana. Upper level ridge returns to the Intermountain West for dry conditions under a southwesterly flow aloft.
In the wake of yesterday's cold front, a cooler and drier airmass will remain in place across the ArkLaMiss region today. Although afternoon temperatures should still climb into the mid 70s areawide (5-10 degrees above normal), the cooler weather and light northeast winds should make it a pleasant day.
628 AM CDT Sat Nov 5 2016 Deep ridge over the center of the country will be slow to move over the weekend maintaining this prolonged stretch of above average temperatures. Highs today will again reach the lower 70s, while a slight drop in 850 hPa temps on Sunday will bring a slight cool down with highs in the middle to upper 60s.
Although the upper disturbance responsible for the activity will continue moving north this morning, it will begin competing with dry advection from the east in the low levels. The mastermind behind these rainmakers, an upper low currently over the Four Corners, will transition into a broad trough as it begins creeping eastward.
Hydrolapse plots show increasing moisture with height in the lowest layer of the air mass, which is one primary indicator of fog formation. Lows tonight should bottom out in the lower 40s, based on expected lowest afternoon dewpoints.