Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
345 AM EDT Thu Apr 28 2022 Dry and cooler conditions will continue again today as high pressure remains over the area. Pressure ridge centered to the northwest will extend into the region today. Continued surface ridging tonight. Guidance consistent with Overnight low temps a little warmer in the low to mid 50s. Consequently we will see surface ridging and an offshore 850mb high develop and strengthen throughout the day.
An upper trough off the west coast will move inland tonight and reach our area on Thursday. The instability will be more favorable for thunderstorms in far southwest and south-central Idaho ahead of a cold front. Temperatures will be cooler across most of the area due to the showers and arrival of the cold front. The next trough will introduce showers to southeastern Oregon on Thursday morning, with showers spreading east through the afternoon. This next trough will move east of the forecast area Thursday night, with some showers lingering over the central Idaho mountains through Friday.
A few deeper convective cells may develop over scentral SD this morning as the main theta-e ridge pushes east per the advecting impulse aloft. Main upper trough will dig into the central Rockies and eject into the central Plains Friday, supporting broad lift over the region and associated shower activity. Models have continued the trend of shifting the upper low track and associated sfc reflection SE.
Wind speeds will gradually for valleys overnight but will remain enhanced over the higher terrain ahead of the approaching trough along the West Coast. Some bands of high clouds will also continue developing ahead of the trough.
Quiet weather in store with broad high pressure over the region. IR Satellite reveals some high-level clouds pushing in from the west/northwest, and that combined with light northeasterly/easterly winds which should help to keep tomorrow morning lows about 5-10 degrees warmer than what they were this AM. Winds are expected to stay up overnight and that will keep overnight minimum temps a bit warmer. Lows will range from the upper 30s to the lower 40s over SE Indiana and into the Bluegrass region. Lift and low-level saturation both increase on Friday on the cool side of the warm frontal boundary.
Surface analysis shows mid 50s dewpoints have moved into north central Kansas while a weak trough and dryline was over southeast Colorado into New Mexico. The negative tilt mid level trough along with a mid level jet will traverse eastward across Kansas Friday and Friday night. Forecast soundings show capping inversion eroding by late afternoon and given forecast shear, instability and good turning in the lower atmosphere per hodographs all modes of severe weather will be possible. As the cold front moves across the area overnight additional lines of storms will affect the area.
An upper level ridge will continue to slowly build into the area through Friday. At the surface, high pressure will continue to translate east and off the Mid-Atlantic coast by Thursday afternoon. Highs Thursday and Friday will be in the low to mid 80s inland with upper 70s along the coast. Lows Thursday night will be much warmer as moisture increases with upper 50s and and low 60s inland to upper 60s along the coast.
122 AM EDT Thu Apr 28 2022 Chilly weather continues tonight with sub-freezing lows over parts of southern Michigan into northwest Ohio.
Meanwhile, ridging aloft will build eastward. Within this airmass, temperatures will climb into the upper 70s to low 80s each day as dewpoints and morning lows remain in the low to mid 60s. This will take the form of a couple cold fronts extending from mid-latitude cyclones in the Great Plains that will push into the Tennessee River Valley and stall.
While tomorrow morning will not be quite as cold as this morning, it will still be cool under a clear sky with morning lows in the lower 40s across the higher terrain of north Georgia and mid-40s to lower 50s elsewhere. High pressure will persist tomorrow as an upper-level ridge centered on the CONUS continues to promote subsidence over the Southeast. Highs tomorrow will be in the mid-70s to lower 80s -- in general, a couple degrees warmer than today. This high will turn our surface flow to the south allowing moisture to be advected into the area creeping dewpoints upwards. Simultaneously, aloft a low amplitude upper ridge will develop over the Gulf States. In response to the upper ridge a slow warming trend will occur through the weekend.
Tonight Through Friday Broad mid/upper level ridging to prevail over the eastern half of the US, as well as the forecast area, through the period. At the low levels, southerly flow will gradually increase from Thursday into Friday causing a day to day warming trend. Highs on Friday will range from the lower 70s over the northern higher terrain to the mid 80s over the far south.
Will continue the freeze warning this morning in the counties where the growing season has begun, as clearing occurs and temperatures fall to at or below freezing.
Temperatures will trend warmer leading into the weekend. High pressure is in control across the Mid-South with sunny skies, a dry airmass and temps in the lower 70s. Weak upper ridging will prevail over the area. A warm front will develop north of the region and upper level disturbances moving over the upper ridge will result in showers and thunderstorms forming over KS/MO and tracking ESE along the front. Highs will continue to gradually warm through the 70s Thursday and into the lower 80s by Friday afternoon.
An upper trough will maintain a chance of showers through Thursday then high pressure will bring a brief dry spell on Friday.
A dry reinforcing cold front will push south across the area before sunrise. Aside from some cirrus this morning, skies should remain sunny and highs are expected to reach the low-mid 70s for most locations, warmest across the SC Pee Dee region. High pressure will build south from the Great Lakes tonight providing light and slowly veering winds. Near normal temps on Friday in the mid to upper 70s away from the coast with low-level high pressure ridging from the northwest. The high splits on Friday, with new center developing off the SE coast. Will see increase of clouds from the northwest between the two high pressures.
Highs will be a touch cooler ranging between the low 50s in southwest Minnesota to mid to upper 60s across the Missouri River due to the cloud cover. The GFS and Canadian keep the low south of the forecast area while the Euro and NAM bring the low into the the southwest portions of the forecast area late Friday. If the low tracks further north, then portions of the southern CWA may break into the warm sector. However, if the low stays further south, then severe weather may be limited.
The stratus deck seen in southwest Oklahoma builds north late tonight through the day and, along with any continued precip, makes for a cooler day. Better coverage of thunderstorms is likely in the evening into early overnight hours as a cold front sweeps through with some severe potential with these storms as well.
Surface ridging and dry northwest flow aloft is producing clear sky and light/calm winds. Chattanooga Airport, TN 78 53 80 59 82 / 0 0 10 20 20 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 74 51 76 56 80 / 0 0 20 40 30 Oak Ridge, TN 75 51 74 55 80 / 0 0 20 40 30 Tri Cities Airport, TN 69 46 69 53 75 / 0 0 20 50 50.
It remains possible that we see a wintry mix overnight as temperatures wet-bulb down to around freezing. But as the evening progresses moisture in the low levels will increase with continued WAA and some fgen bringing the lift necessary for some precip to reach the surface, especially by the late overnight hours. Kuroski (Issued 230 PM CDT Wed Apr 27 2022) Friday through Friday night: SSE low level flow will be in place ahead of low pressure in the Plains. Mid level ridging will be amplifying across the state.
110 AM EDT Thu Apr 28 2022 High pressure north of Lake Superior will start to gain some control of our weather tonight.
1248 AM EDT Thu Apr 28 2022 High pressure will prevail into late week. Aloft, the axis of a mid/upper ridge across the Central US will gradually propagate toward the forecast area. A cold front is then expected to stall just north of the area on Friday. Return flow from offshore high pressure will begin to enhance moisture with PWATs increasing to around 1.
By early Friday, a warm front will drape itself to our immediate north, and this may kick off a few showers across our northern zones on Friday.
A strong upper level trough will dig in to the Central Plains Friday with low pressure at the surface strengthening across western Kansas and shifting eastward as the day progresses. Strong southwesterly winds are expected behind this low and bring very dry conditions to southwest Kansas. A cold front is then expected to more through the area by Friday evening bringing strong northwesterly.
In the low levels, breezier SE flow will keep PWATs around 1/4" above normal for late April, yet thermal profiles will become too hostile for precip thanks to a stronger EML from 850-700 mb.
By late Thursday afternoon, energy streaming east from the Plains over top the ridge will combine with warm advection north of a warm front extending from low pressure developing over the Plains to yield a slight chance of showers over far western portions of southeast Missouri and southern Illinois late Thursday afternoon. With the warm front in the region, a tighter gradient is expected by Friday with highs ranging from the upper 60s north to the upper 70s south.
Another picture perfect evening with mostly clear skies and light winds as high pressure remains overhead. Overnight lows will drop down into the mid 40s, which is a few degrees warmer than last night. Still, expect mostly sunny and dry conditions in place and subsequently a warmer day thanks to the southerly flow as highs in the 75 to 80 degree range will be common. However, with plenty of sunshine/heating expect an even warmer day with highs climbing into the lower 80s in most locations.
/DC/ Today and Tonight: Today: Per 00Z UA & RAP analysis, low-level ridge axis is centered over TN Valley, with mean mid-level ridge axis further W. Efficient mixing is expected & based on how well the humidity mixed out yesterday into the low 20% RH, similar RH levels are anticipated today.
High pressure still has an influence on our weather today resulting in mostly clear skies and light winds. Chattanooga Airport, TN 79 53 80 59 80 / 0 10 10 10 30 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 76 51 77 56 80 / 0 10 20 30 40 Oak Ridge, TN 76 51 76 55 80 / 0 10 20 30 40 Tri Cities Airport, TN 70 48 71 53 75 / 0 10 20 50 60.
An upper level ridge will continue to slowly build into the area through Friday. At the surface, high pressure will continue to translate east and off the Mid-Atlantic coast by this afternoon. Highs both today and Friday will be in the low to mid 80s inland with upper 70s along the coast. Lows tonight will be warmer than past few nights as moisture increases, ranging from the upper 50s and and low 60s inland to upper 60s along the coast.
Another trough will push off the Front Ranges by early evening and into an environment with sufficient instability to support some isolated storms. Showers and thunderstorms gradually push eastward throughout Thursday night and into Friday with an upper level low deepening through this timeframe as well.
831 AM CDT Thu Apr 28 2022 Another beautiful day is on tap across the Tennessee Valley, with an area of high pressure promoting a clear sky and light winds once again. Winds will veer to the south, today which combined with the aboundant sunshine will make for a warmer day today, with temperatures climbing into the upper 70s by the afternoon. A few locations across portions of the valley could creep into the lower 80s. Despite the higher moisture content, the upper level ridge will move into the area and should prevent any showers or precipitation from forming overnight. Lows will also be warmer tonight in the low to mid 50s for most locations. A warm front will lift northwards through the area on Friday and there are a few models that hint at a few light showers developing along this boundary.
723 AM EDT Thu Apr 28 2022 Dry and cooler conditions will continue again today as high pressure remains over the area. Pressure ridge centered to the northwest will extend into the region today. Continued surface ridging tonight. Guidance consistent with Overnight low temps a little warmer in the low to mid 50s. Consequently we will see surface ridging and an offshore 850mb high develop and strengthen throughout the day.
443 AM CDT Thu Apr 28 2022 Today and Tonight: Today: Per 00Z UA & RAP analysis, low-level ridge axis is centered over TN Valley, with mean mid-level ridge axis further W. Efficient mixing is expected & based on how well the humidity mixed out yesterday into the low 20% RH, similar RH levels are anticipated today.
Otherwise, insolation will drive temperature into the 50s for areas off the ridges - still about 10 degrees below average with the influence of upper troughing.
A better chance for showers will overspread the area Friday afternoon into Friday night as a warm front lifts northeast across the Ohio Valley. Additional mid level energy will move east across the lower Ohio Valley through the day on Friday. As it does, a low level boundary/warm front will begin to lift northeast into the region. Highs on Friday will be mostly in the lower 60s.
A passing upper level trough and associated surface boundary will continue to produce gusty winds around the Bay Area and Central Coast.
Clouds will begin to gradually increase from the northwest today, but otherwise no weather impacts are anticipated with highs reaching the low 70s on the Plateau and mid 70s to around 80 elsewhere.
As such, the Fire Danger Statement for the entire forecast area excluding the higher terrain of north-central and northeast Georgia looks good. Meanwhile, ridging aloft will build eastward. Within this airmass, temperatures will climb into the upper 70s to low 80s each day as dewpoints and morning lows remain in the low to mid 60s. This will take the form of a couple cold fronts extending from mid-latitude cyclones in the Great Plains that will push into the Tennessee River Valley and stall.
632 AM EDT Thu Apr 28 2022 A backdoor cold front will move through early this morning. Cool high pressure will build over the area through late week. A warm front will move slowly north into the area over the weekend. Latest analysis shows complex low pressure off the New England coast with backdoor front pushing through SE NC. The backdoor cold front will push through eastern NC early this morning, with strong high pressure building in from the NNW behind it. High pressure will remain in control overnight with upper trough pushing off the eastern US. Leaned towards the cooler side of guidance with lows falling into the upper 30s/low 40s inland and low/mid 40s along the coast. Think will see increasing high clouds towards sunrise with moisture riding over the ridge in the central US.
644 AM EDT Thu Apr 28 2022 High pressure will expand across the eastern Great Lakes today. The airmass associated with this high is very dry and will therefore lead to clear skies today. Sprawling high pressure (1030 MB) established over the Great Lakes region/Ontario this morning providing optimal radiating conditions (outside of some high clouds earlier across the far southwest part of CWA/Lenawee county). The very cold airmass (also indicated by yesterday's daily record low 850 MB temp of -11 C per 12z DTX Raob) will be slowly moderating today and Friday (full/near full insolation allowing temps to rise into the 50s), with building upper level ridge axis moving over the Central Great Lakes on Friday night.
/CME/ Prior discussion below: Today and Tonight: Today: Per 00Z UA & RAP analysis, low-level ridge axis is centered over TN Valley, with mean mid-level ridge axis further W. Efficient mixing is expected & based on how well the humidity mixed out yesterday into the low 20% RH, similar RH levels are anticipated today.
A weather disturbance and cold front passing through the region will result in gusty winds, areas of blowing dust and some shower and thunderstorm activity mainly along and north of I-80.
Today and Thursday: Mid-level water vapor imagery this morning shows the weak ridge over the central CONUS beginning to depart to the east as lower heights associated with a deepening trough intrude on the far western CONUS. Looking at surface observations locally, a warm front currently saddles I-80 from central Nebraska into far southwest Iowa. CAMs this morning have tended to focus storm clusters along the warm front across eastern Nebraska, and taper them off by 4-6 AM.
Afternoon highs will not be as warm as yesterday due to the increased cloud cover and breezy onshore flow, with forecast highs reaching in the low to mid 80s.
SHORT TERM (Now through Friday): A modest 500mb ridge over the region will provide subsidence and a nearly zonal flow aloft through much of the period. Low pressure across the Plains will strengthen the pressure gradient through the short term resulting in breezy southeast winds today and especially on Friday. Highs today will range from the 70s near the immediate coast to the mid to upper 80s inland and the lower 90s across Zapata and Starr Counties. Lows tonight will fall into the upper 60s to the lower 70s. Friday will be a few degrees warmer with highs in the mid to upper 80s near the coast and the lower Valley to the low to mid 90s across the upper Valley, Rio Grande Plains and portions of the northern Ranchlands.
403 AM CDT Thu Apr 28 2022 Upper troughs over the Atlantic and Pacific coasts this morning with mainly ridging over the center of the country. At the surface, high pressure extended from the Great Lakes southward to Florida with a weak extension southwest into the western Gulf of Mexico. Away from marine influences, temperatures have fallen into the upper 40s to mid 50s at 3 AM CDT, but areas that are seeing winds off nearby warmer waters, such as New Orleans, are reporting temperatures in the 60s.
946 AM CDT Thu Apr 28 2022 Radar returns across central ND continue to advect east with short wave trough passing across the northern plains.
The main issue remains the low relative humidity values along with the strong, southwest winds each afternoon keeping us with near- critical fire weather conditions. Mainly high clouds will develop across the region as upper level moisture increase just ahead of the approaching trough.
and a mininum temperature near 65F in the northern interior of Big Pine Key, sunshine and was helping warm temperatures quickly from the into the lower to mid 80s, with light east to southeast winds near 5 mph.
650 AM EDT Thu Apr 28 2022 High pressure will dominate the region through the rest of the work week. Water vapor satellite showed an upper-level low spinning just east of New England, and an upper-ridge building into the Midwest. Heights aloft will slightly build today as the ridge to our west pushes east. The upper ridge will build across the TN Valley and Great Lakes region Friday, and amplify as the upper low lingers near New England and another upper trough digs across the Rockies. At the surface, the backdoor front will stall and linger to our south across SC, with high pressure to our north developing cold air damming across the region and widespread cloudiness.
749 AM EDT Thu Apr 28 2022 [Through 12Z Friday] VFR conditions expected through the 12Z TAF period as high pressure builds north of the region today. Winds will gradually lighten after 02Z this evening and become easterly with only a few high clouds overnight over the northeast florida terminals as high pressure northeast of the region. Temperatures will be mild today with highs in the upper 70s and lower 80s, cooler at the coast and warmer inland. Overnight lows tonight will range from the lower 50s in inland SE GA to the lower 60s in north central FL. Lows will be slightly warmer in the middle 60s along the coast.
Southwest flow aloft will trend up today, with a deepening lee side trough as an upper level trough races east from the west coast toward the Great Basin and Desert Southwest. Locally windy conditions will persist overnight as the upper level trough continues east toward the southern Rockies. Winds will pick up quickly on Friday as strong westerlies are steered over northern New Mexico with the upper level trough ejecting out of the Rockies and into the plains. Temperatures will drop a few degrees Friday given weak cold air advection with the trough passage, but will still be above normal most areas.
/issued 434 AM CDT Thu Apr 28 2022/ SHORT TERM (Now through Friday): A modest 500mb ridge over the region will provide subsidence and a nearly zonal flow aloft through much of the period. Low pressure across the Plains will strengthen the pressure gradient through the short term resulting in breezy southeast winds today and especially on Friday. Highs today will range from the 70s near the immediate coast to the mid to upper 80s inland and the lower 90s across Zapata and Starr Counties. Lows tonight will fall into the upper 60s to the lower 70s. Friday will be a few degrees warmer with highs in the mid to upper 80s near the coast and the lower Valley to the low to mid 90s across the upper Valley, Rio Grande Plains and portions of the northern Ranchlands.
323 PM EDT Thu Apr 28 2022 Outside of a few snow showers across the northwestern slopes of the higher terrain this morning, we are looking at dry conditions today and continuing through the weekend.
High pressure will build to the north northeast through the night.
Breezy southwesterly winds will continue through the afternoon and into the evening hours before shifting to a more northerly direction during the overnight hours as the trough axis passes over us. Current water vapor imagery shows a trough continuing to push inland over the West Coast and into the Great Basin Region. This trough is responsible for this mornings cloud cover and this afternoon's gusty southwesterly winds. As this trough approached the region yesterday, weak downslope winds were observed in the slopes of the eastern Sierra with gusts around 40 mph recorded. Winds will shift to a more northerly direction overnight as the trough continues its eastward propagation and its axis passes over us. Temperatures tomorrow will be similar to today with the cold air advection in the wake of the trough serving as the limiting factor.
High pressure still has an influence on our weather today resulting in mostly clear skies and light winds. Diegan Chattanooga Airport, TN 53 80 59 80 63 / 0 10 10 30 60 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 51 77 56 80 61 / 0 20 30 40 50 Oak Ridge, TN 51 76 55 80 60 / 0 20 30 40 60 Tri Cities Airport, TN 48 71 53 75 56 / 10 20 50 60 40.
Variable to southeasterly flow will continue today as high pressure slides east of the region.
Weak ridging aloft continues to build into the region with zonal flow through Friday.
Capped precip chances at 50 percent given the current uncertainty, with the highest values in the north. The best chance for the warmer conditions will be across the southwest half of the forecast area, as breezy east to southeast winds will keep a cooler airmass flowing in from lake Michigan in the east/northeast. Moisture will continue to increase Friday evening into Friday night ahead of an approaching low pressure system.
120 PM EDT Thu Apr 28 2022 Dry and cooler conditions will continue again today as high pressure remains over the area. High pressure centered to the north of the forecast area will continue to shift closer to the area this evening as winds decrease. Temperatures expected to be a few degrees warmer tonight than last night with lows in the upper 40s to low 50s. Consequently we will see surface ridging and an offshore 850mb high develop and strengthen throughout the day.
High pressure will remain in the Lk Huron area thru tonight. Going a touch warmer than chilly MOS guidance worked decently last night, and will follow the same idea tonight.
Temperatures are a bit cooler in the northwest where the cloud cover is a bit more dense.