Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
836 AM EDT Tue Aug 30 2022 Showers and storms will persist until a cold frontal passage this evening. Conditions will generally be drier and cooler for the latter half of the week. Frontal/upr trough approach will continue to spread areas of showers and embedded thunderstorms over the area through much of the afternoon. Convective element speed and upr trough progression continues to inhibit a flash flood threat outside areas of isolated training. Cold frontal passage will alleviate all problems this evening and sub average temperature is expected for mrng. There is high confidence that there will be a late-week cooldown behind the aforementioned cold front.
457 AM MDT Tue Aug 30 2022 Hot and dry conditions return to the region through the long weekend with upper ridge building over the western states. Temperatures will warm quickly through midweek and with high pressure over eastern Montana, winds will remain fairly light for today and Wednesday.
/86/ Prior discussion below: Today through tonight: A seasonably strong upper level trough digging southward into the Tennessee Valley region will help send a cold front toward the forecast area. /EC/ At the surface, a cold front is expected to drop out of the north and enter the ArkLaMiss region early Wednesday morning.
A strong area of high pressure will bring hot and dry conditions throughout the upcoming weekend.
Forecast Highlights: -A slightly cooler and drier air mass works into the area today. Forecast Discussion: The large-scale synoptic pattern across the CONUS early today shows an expansive mid-level ridge over the western US and a trough over the Great Lakes region.
/EC/ Today through tonight: A seasonably strong upper level trough digging southward into the Tennessee Valley region will help send a cold front toward the forecast area. /EC/ At the surface, a cold front is expected to drop out of the north and enter the ArkLaMiss region early Wednesday morning.
An upper level ridge will persist on Tuesday along with well above average temperatures. The pattern will then begin to progress towards the weekend as the next trough over the open waters tracks inland.
Short range models show a bit of a lull after this last bit of showers pass, then scattered showers will push through this afternoon as a cold front dives from the north into the region.
Obs are showing a band of lower MVFR to near IFR (in a couple areas) in advance of the cold front slowly working across the central portions of the state. Conditions today governed by higher amplitude troughing, as strong height falls commence south of a closed mid level low pivoting across Hudson Bay. Attendant cold front arrives locally early today, ushering a modestly cooler but notably much drier airmass for the afternoon period. Deeper layer stability held within prevailing mid level northwest flow and encroaching high pressure points to dry conditions with limited diurnal cu development Wednesday.
523 AM MDT Tue Aug 30 2022 Across the Tri State region this morning, skies are clear as high pressure continues to roll south and east through the area. A broad, amplified upper ridge currently sits over the western portion of the country, allowing for west- northwest flow aloft.
- Slightly warmer tomorrow and for the rest of the week. The cold front has pushed south of the region with temperatures in the 60s for most locations. The aforementioned trough to our east slides a little further east as we head into tomorrow, allowing the western CONUS mid level ridge to nose its way in.
545 AM CDT Tue Aug 30 2022 (Today and tonight) Currently a weak cold front/surface boundary is stalled across central Kansas, but expected to be pushing into the Southern Plains later today.
902 AM EDT Tue Aug 30 2022 Shower and thunderstorm activity will decrease today as a cold front ushers in cooler and drier air. High pressure will then provide tranquil weather through the end of the week.
444 AM MDT Tue Aug 30 2022 Current upper air analysis and WV imagery shows ridge in place over the western CONUS with light northwest flow over the northern plains. A trough sits over the Great Lakes region with the upper low centered over central ON. A cold front drapes across MI and dips southwestward into MO and KS. Warmer and dry today with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s. An upper ridge will dominate the western US through most of the week, bringing some light northwest flow over the northern Plains. The winds will remain fairly light under the ridge but the temperatures will rise through the week.
608 AM CDT Tue Aug 30 2022 Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will end east of I-55 early this morning as clouds decrease with passage of a cold front, leaving ample sunshine the next few days. Cooler and less humid air will usher into central Illinois on northwest breezes today. Predawn surface map shows a cold front moving se into central sections of IN/IL/MO with dewpoint dropping through the 60s behind the front.
631 AM CDT Tue Aug 30 2022 (Tuesday through Wednesday) Upper-level trough to swing southeast across the region today allowing for diurnally enhanced showers and thunderstorms areawide. A cold front will drift south into the region overnight bringing a wind shift from the north across mainly southeast Oklahoma and southwest Arkansas by midnight and across all areas by daybreak. Overnight low temperatures tonight are forecast to fall into the low to mid 70s. Front to linger across the region on Wednesday serving as the catalyst for scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms mainly along and south of I-20 with afternoon high temperatures forecast to climb into the lower 90s areawide.
High pressure is in the driver's seat. Lower to the surface, we start with high pressure overhead, moving southeast. Will stick with NBM for highs today and Wednesday, though under favorable radiational conditions tonight will bump the lows a degree or two off NBM especially for notorious overachievers like KABR.
650 AM CDT Tue Aug 30 2022 A cold front in north Arkansas will move through the state through the day. Today Through Wednesday Night An upper ridge is over the Rockies this morning with an upper trough over the Great Lakes. By tonight, the trough will extend along the east coast. The upper ridge will expand eastward Wednesday over much of the central and southern U. Southerly flow will continue at the surface today ahead of a cold front that will move through the state. High pressure will filter into the state behind the front. Lows tonight will be in the lower 60s north to the mid 70s south and lower 60s north to upper 60s south Wednesday night.
Strong high pressure will dominate the weather across northern Arizona through the Labor Day weekend.
641 AM EDT Tue Aug 30 2022 Shower and thunderstorm activity will decrease today as a cold front ushers in cooler and drier air. High pressure will then provide tranquil weather through the end of the week.
928 AM CDT Tue Aug 30 2022 Forecast is on track with minimal weather concerns or impacts today as high pressure and sunny skies dominate the Northern Plains. Clear skies are prevailing and ideal radiational conditions resulted in some locations cooling into the 40s this morning (most other s were in the low to mid 50s as originally forecast). Large scale ridging is continuing to build to the west while the upper low has transitioned further east over Ontario, with very dry/stable northwest flow over our CWA. As temperatures are slowly moderating aloft and good mixing is anticipated we should see highs in the 80s from the RRV to the west (70s to the east) and a few degrees warmer on Wednesday with even less cloud cover due to stronger influence of the building ridge.
A large ridge of high pressure over the region will allow temperatures to climb as high as 20 degrees above seasonal averages. The heat risk product is currently suggesting warning level criteria in the lowest elevations of north-central Idaho.
416 AM CDT Tue Aug 30 2022 Today through tonight: A seasonably strong upper level trough digging southward into the Tennessee Valley region will help send a cold front toward the forecast area. /EC/ At the surface, a cold front is expected to drop out of the north and enter the ArkLaMiss region early Wednesday morning.
Still some cloudiness over Shasta County early this morning as the closed low has opened and is now lifting quickly north across northwestern California.
353 AM MDT Tue Aug 30 2022 High pressure continues to build across the western US today, bringing some late summertime heat to Wyoming. The strong ridge will also provide subsidence, keeping skies nearly clear through the day, with only daytime CU above highest mountain peaks. The high pressure in the vicinity will help keep winds down again today and tomorrow, with minimal gusts near 15 mph in isolated areas.
As high pressure strengthens north of the area, we'll see hotter afternoons much of the week. Strong high pressure is building through most of the west, with a new high center consolidating over the Great Basin to our northwest. After our initial heat jump today, most of SE AZ will be more on the edge of the strongest ridge influence, with significant weaknesses in the easterly flow around the high developing and pushing into Chihuahua and Sonora.
The synoptic pattern is dominated by an upper ridge centered over the Desert Southwest while a weakening short wave trough lifts to the north over northern California.
No updates needed at this time, today will be much warmer with temperatures in the mid to upper 80s. This is due to the high pressure in the Four Corners and the large upper level ridge. With the thermal ridge also nudging into western North Dakota, temperatures today will range from the lower 80s in the east, up to the upper 80s in the west. As the thermal ridge continues to build in, temperatures throughout the week will warm into the 90s.
437 AM CDT Tue Aug 30 2022 As the upper level trough currently entering the Great Lakes region continues east, its associated front will advance through the CWA. As the progressing trough deepens over the eastern CONUS, a ridge will build in the west. In the lower levels, cooler, drier air will advect in as high pressure builds into the region. The disparity between the cool nighttime air and warmer water temperatures will favor the development of river valley fog tonight.
As of early afternoon, temperatures have warmed into the lower 80s. As high pressure centers over the area tonight, lows will fall into the middle 50s to lower 60s under clear skies and light winds.
The upper low across West Texas into adjacent southeastern New Mexico will remain trapped down across that portion of the CONUS, and even continue to push southwest as it slowly shears out through mid-week.
147 PM EDT Tue Aug 30 2022 In the wake of a cold front, high pressure over the Midwest will bring a drier, cooler northwest flow to the Ohio Valley.
(Rest of Today) Latest model guidance suggests that an amplified mid-level vort max will dig southeastward from the Lower Lake MI vicinity into the central Appalachians today, within the flow around an upper low situated across northern Ontario. The only other change of note is that we have lowered the maximum temperature forecast to reflect highs ranging from the lower 80s (E) to upper 80s (W).
359 PM EDT Tue Aug 30 2022 In the wake of a cold front, high pressure over the Midwest will bring a drier, cooler northwest flow to the Ohio Valley.
Similar conditions are in store for Wednesday with slightly warmer temperatures as highs are expected to top out in the low to mid 80s. Yack Temperatures will gradually moderate under sprawling high pressure encompassing much of the eastern CONUS as we head into September.
As such, forecast grids for this afternoon look in good shape with the highest PoPs in the areas mentioned above, with PoPs lowering as you go further east and south across our area. Temps are approaching the lower 90s across most of the area as expected. Lows tonight are expected to range from the lower 70s over far northern inland areas, to the mid 70s across interior coastal AL and the western FL panhandle, and in the upper 70s along the immediate coast.
Strong high pressure remains over the area into Wednesday, maintaining well above normal temperatures across the interior. A weak disturbance brings slightly cooler temperatures later this week, but a more significant shift waits until the weekend when the ridge slides east and the next trough approaches the Pacific Northwest.
Hot temperatures and dry conditions will continue across most of the region into the Labor Day weekend as a dome of high pressure settles over the southwest. Temperatures will run several degrees above normal this afternoon as a dome of high pressure builds over the southwest.
The region remains on the periphery of strong western CONUS ridging and persistent yet weak troughing entrenched through the Southern Plains.
Surface moisture will stay elevated across the region in advance of an approaching cold front. Aloft, a Srn Rockies ridge was in place over the Wrn CONUS meanwhile a trough occupied the Great Lakes region. But overnight lows is where the cold front will be most notable, with readings falling into the upper 50s and 60s.
133 PM EDT Tue Aug 30 2022 A cold front will work its way east across the area through tonight. High pressure builds into the region from the northwest Wednesday, bringing lower humidity. Watching for a few strong storms in the piedmont this afternoon, Showers/embedded thunderstorms have advanced east to the I-81 corridor in area of better low level convergence while scattered storms formed early this afternoon along the southern Blue Ridge. So tonights lows, though a little cooler in the mountains will still be running close to normal with mid to upper 50s, with the piedmont in the mid 60s.
1027 AM CDT Tue Aug 30 2022 Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will end east of I-55 early this morning as clouds decrease with passage of a cold front, leaving ample sunshine the next few days. Cooler and less humid air will usher into central Illinois on northwest breezes today. Late this morning, a cold front has settled over the Ohio River Valley leaving favorable weather conditions in its wake across central Illinois. Predawn surface map shows a cold front moving se into central sections of IN/IL/MO with dewpoint dropping through the 60s behind the front.
Morning FG developed along a moist gradient ahead of an approaching cold front. This would be the area just ahead of the advancing cold front. A cold front in north Arkansas will move through the state through the day. Today Through Wednesday Night An upper ridge is over the Rockies this morning with an upper trough over the Great Lakes. By tonight, the trough will extend along the east coast. The upper ridge will expand eastward Wednesday over much of the central and southern U. Southerly flow will continue at the surface today ahead of a cold front that will move through the state. High pressure will filter into the state behind the front. Lows tonight will be in the lower 60s north to the mid 70s south and lower 60s north to upper 60s south Wednesday night.
Additional convection is expected farther north and east later this afternoon as a cold front shifts southward into the region, and the current PoP forecast well reflects this expectation. /19/ (Tuesday through Wednesday) Upper-level trough to swing southeast across the region today allowing for diurnally enhanced showers and thunderstorms areawide. A cold front will drift south into the region overnight bringing a wind shift from the north across mainly southeast Oklahoma and southwest Arkansas by midnight and across all areas by daybreak. Overnight low temperatures tonight are forecast to fall into the low to mid 70s. Front to linger across the region on Wednesday serving as the catalyst for scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms mainly along and south of I-20 with afternoon high temperatures forecast to climb into the lower 90s areawide.
1221 PM CDT Tue Aug 30 2022 Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will end east of I-55 early this morning as clouds decrease with passage of a cold front, leaving ample sunshine the next few days. Cooler and less humid air will usher into central Illinois on northwest breezes today. Late this morning, a cold front has settled over the Ohio River Valley leaving favorable weather conditions in its wake across central Illinois. Predawn surface map shows a cold front moving se into central sections of IN/IL/MO with dewpoint dropping through the 60s behind the front.
With abundant sunshine available, temperatures have been able to reach into the lower 90s this afternoon.
The highest heat risk will be west of the mountains and in the High Desert.
As high pressure strengthens north of the area, we'll see hotter afternoons much of the week. Large scale pattern is defined by a strong and expansive mid/upper level high over Colorado and Utah with southern Arizona on the southern flank of that feature. While the flow regime is favorable today to push storms off the Rim towards the lower elevations, moisture is quite marginal as PWAT values are only around 0. Anything that comes off the Rim will struggle to push into the lower elevations, though some gusty winds are possible near any storms.
1159 AM CDT Tue Aug 30 2022 (Rest of Today) Latest model guidance suggests that an amplified mid-level vort max will dig southeastward from the Lower Lake MI vicinity into the central Appalachians today, within the flow around an upper low situated across northern Ontario. The only other change of note is that we have lowered the maximum temperature forecast to reflect highs ranging from the lower 80s (E) to upper 80s (W).
An upper-level low, which separated from the upper trough over the Great Lakes last night, will spin over far west Texas and drift into northern Mexico through tomorrow evening. Meanwhile, a cold front will drop down to the I-20 corridor tonight. These features should help to keep the moisture flowing in from the Gulf of Mexico in the low-levels, resulting in mostly cloudy skies with more chances for rain showers.
257 PM CDT Tue Aug 30 2022 Tonight and Wednesday: An upper longwave trough will be moving across the eastern CONUS tonight into Wednesday. While the jet axis will remain well north of our area, height falls and a a wind shift aloft will likely signal the progress of the trough which will be just northeast of our area by midday Wednesday. Temperatures tonight fall to near seasonal averages in the lower 70s F. Highs will rise into the lower 90s F across the area Wednesday.
Aloft, water vapor imagery is clearly showing an upper low over southern New Mexico with the models showing a reflection of it at 500 mb and a closed low at 300 mb.
1141 AM MDT Tue Aug 30 2022 High pressure continues to build across the western US today, bringing some late summertime heat to Wyoming. The strong ridge will also provide subsidence, keeping skies nearly clear through the day, with only daytime CU above highest mountain peaks. The high pressure in the vicinity will help keep winds down again today and tomorrow, with minimal gusts near 15 mph in isolated areas.
This will move east this evening with ridging and subsidence increasing from the west. This drier air aloft will arrive prior to the low-level cold front tonight. High pressure at the surface and aloft will result in a clear sky and light northerly winds on Wednesday. Northerly flow and drier air arriving from the north will result in cooler temperatures and low humidity for a beautiful late summer day.
1148 AM EDT Tue Aug 30 2022 Showers and a few storms will persist until a cold frontal passage this evening. Conditions will generally be drier and cooler for the latter half of the week. Upr trough/frontall approach and passage will continue to spread areas of showers and isolated thunderstorms over the area. Lack of instability will preclude organized severe threats although an isolated wind gust is possible for the ridge-areas east and south of Pit. Cold frontal passage will alleviate all problems this evening and near-average temperature is expected for mrng. There is high confidence that there will be a late-week cooldown behind the aforementioned cold front.
More uncertainty by end of period Confidence Short Term: High High pressure west of Iowa will continue to provide for quiet weather next 36 hours. Weak cool front over Wisconsin and southern MN will drop south into the evening with a reinforcing shot of cooler air northeast through tomorrow. Otherwise, tonight will see light winds as the high moves into northern Missouri by 12z Wednesday. With light winds and a dry atmosphere, mins will fall to the mid to upper 50s over most of the region tonight with the exception of around the Des Moines metro which should be a degree or so warmer. As the high slides east of the region tomorrow afternoon, a light west southwest will set up in the southwest half of the area while the northeast will still be under the influence of northwest flow.
1138 AM EDT Tue Aug 30 2022 Showers and a few storms will persist until a cold frontal passage this evening. Conditions will generally be drier and cooler for the latter half of the week. Upr trough/frontall approach and passage will continue to spread areas of showers and isolated thunderstorms over the area. Lack of instability will preclude organized severe threats although an isolated wind gust is possible for the ridge-areas east and south of Pit. Cold frontal passage will alleviate all problems this evening and near-average temperature is expected for mrng. There is high confidence that there will be a late-week cooldown behind the aforementioned cold front.
325 PM CDT Tue Aug 30 2022 (Issued 325 PM CDT Tue Aug 30 2022) Tonight through Wednesday night: Gusty winds will ease tonight as the boundary layer decouples and high pressure expands a bit into our area. Mostly clear, dry conditions will continue into tomorrow, with highs reaching into the low 80s. Winds will become a bit gusty again during the afternoon owing to daytime mixing and a tighter pressure gradient ahead of a weak cold front that will sink southward and stall over northeast WI during the late afternoon.
Issued by National Weather Service Pueblo CO 1127 AM MDT Tue Aug 30 2022 Across the Tri State region this morning, skies are clear as high pressure continues to roll south and east through the area. A broad, amplified upper ridge currently sits over the western portion of the country, allowing for west- northwest flow aloft.
231 PM CDT Tue Aug 30 2022 A large 1022 MB high pressure was sprawled out over the northern and central Plains extending eastward into the MS River valley region. Tonight, high pressure will build eastward over the area resulting in clear skies and light/calm winds. Wednesday, high pressure will be over the region with blue skies and a lighter WNW breeze. Highs will be in the low to mid 80s along Highway 20 and east of the MS River, with upper 80s to around 90 in SE Iowa and NE Missouri.
high pressure will sit over the Great Basin through tonight. upper level high pressure will continue to spin over the Great Basin. 2) Isolated to scattered thunderstorm coverage possible every afternoon in the high country.
This trough is producing some radar returns over central Idaho and some of the HREF model members are showing isolated showers and thunderstorms developing this afternoon. The ridge may be too strong with too much of a cap in place to support much if any convection. Wednesday's highs look about 3 degrees warmer with some areas flirting with temperatures near 100 degrees.
The western trough is adding moisture over coastal waters and some of the showers are beginning to make it on shore.