Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
As the work week approaches, the upper-level pattern begins to amplify as a positively-tilted trough axis digs and intensifies, propagating eastward in the process. More clouds, at least some rain chances, and maybe - just maybe - some slightly cooler air may be able to filter in. High pressure remains in control with light northerly flow and seas of 2 feet or less through the weekend.
Key Messages: - Winter Weather Advisory in effect - Snow accumulations a bit less overall - Freezing rain/ice accumulation still a threat Water vapor imagery this morning was showing feature of concern being a vigorous vort max currently over the Great Basin pushing into the central Rockies. At the surface, cold front extended from southwest MO to southwest OK. And given soundings show a sufficient deep/warm layer will be present, the dominate precip type at onset favors freezing rain with areas of freezing drizzle this morning for areas along/south of I-80. North of I-80 this morning, sounding generally favor snow/freezing drizzle event.
335 AM EST Thu Dec 8 2022 High pressure will maintain mainly dry, but mostly cloudy weather today, though a weak disturbance could result in light precipitation chances south of Pittsburgh this evening and tonight.
1154 PM EST Wed Dec 7 2022 An area of light to occasionally moderate snow continues to sweep eastward through the area, now generally east of M95, with a passing cold front.
Rest of tonight: 591-592DM subtropical ridge is centered over the NE Gulf of Mexico, with moist SW return flow analyzed across the region. Ridge will be strong overnight & with slightly drier air, most areas will remain rain free.
Overnight lows will stay near current readings, with temperatures rising a few degrees, especially across southern zones as the warm front lifts north through those locations.
1246 AM EST Thu Dec 8 2022 High pressure will nose southeast from the Great Lakes tonight into Thursday.
1244 AM CST Thu Dec 8 2022 Rest of tonight: 591-592DM subtropical ridge is centered over the NE Gulf of Mexico, with moist SW return flow analyzed across the region. Ridge will be strong overnight & with slightly drier air, most areas will remain rain free.
However, with ridging and dry air moving in tonight, expect LES to cease by around 4 or 5 AM EST.
Expect some breaks in the cloud cover this afternoon, with temperatures topping out in the low to mid 70s. A weak cold front remains stalled across the Big Country, but should begin to lift north by mid morning into this afternoon. A weak cold front will move into the Big Country after midnight, but lows will remain well above seasonal normals.
527 AM CST Thu Dec 8 2022 (Today through Friday) A persistent subtropical 500 mb ridge over the Gulf of Mexico will continue to provide subsidence across Deep South Texas through the period. Lows tonight will fall into the mid 60s to the lower 70s. Isolated showers will be possible along the Lower Texas Coast late tonight into Friday due to a slight uptick in moisture. However, surface observations, satellite images and webcameras early this morning indicate that some patchy fog has developed along the Lower Texas coast.
(Today through Friday) A persistent subtropical 500 mb ridge over the Gulf of Mexico will continue to provide subsidence across Deep South Texas through the period. Lows tonight will fall into the mid 60s to the lower 70s. Isolated showers will be possible along the Lower Texas Coast late tonight into Friday due to a slight uptick in moisture. However, surface observations, satellite images and webcameras early this morning indicate that some patchy fog has developed along the Lower Texas coast.
Temps and dew points were in the mid 50s to around 60 on the cooler side of the front. Temperatures through Friday will remain warmer than normal for this time of year.
With this high currently situated over the Gulf, SW return flow should continue over the forecast area. By tonight, the ongoing cloud cover along with sufficient mixing from the lower levels should help keep overnight temperatures in the 60s.
538 AM CST Thu Dec 8 2022 (Today through Friday afternoon) Upper low over WY this morning with a ridge centered over the Gulf. This low will pass onto the plains today as the next upper trough sets up along the West Coast. The trough will quickly move inland Friday as the low moves off keeping SW aloft over the region.
229 AM PST Thu Dec 8 2022 A weak trough along the West Coast will maintain cool weather for the remainder of the week under fair skies. Much colder air dropping south, into the trough this weekend will send a strong cold front across the State.
531 AM CST Thu Dec 8 2022 (Today and tonight) The last bit of shower activity is working its way across the southeastern part of the forecast area as an upper level jet streak ejects from northeastern New Mexico and the northern Texas Panhandle, taking an upper level trough with it across the central Plains today.
Light flow will allow the sea breeze to develop and move inland keeping coastal areas cooler in the mid 70s, with lower to middle 80s inland. As the work week approaches, the upper-level pattern begins to amplify as a positively-tilted trough axis digs and intensifies, propagating eastward in the process. More clouds, at least some rain chances, and maybe - just maybe - some slightly cooler air may be able to filter in. High pressure remains in control with light northerly flow and seas of 2 feet or less through the weekend.
Could see some low stratus this morning across portions of southeastern North Dakota as warmer air advects over a cold snowpack. Highs today will be substantially warmer than yesterday, with widespread teens to low 20s.
Most areas are expected to remain cloudy with highs ranging from the low-60s to low-70s. Winds shift to the WNW over northwest OK early afternoon with the passage of the trough axis.
High pressure will build over the region tonight allowing decent radiational cooling with lows falling into the low 20s over central KS while far southeast KS holds onto some 30s. Seasonably mild temperatures are anticipated through the period with highs in the low 50s. A vigorous mid/upper trough is progged to dig southward across California at the start of the period while a mid/upper ridge builds across the central CONUS supporting mild Dec temperatures on Sun-Mon.
Skies should start out clear this evening, but clouds will increase from southwest to northeast overnight as a weak low pressure system approaches from Iowa.
It has been another quiet and dry night in the Florida Keys with temperatures holding around the lower to mid 70s across the island chain. Winds on offshore marine platforms continue to hold steady at around 15 knots out of the northeast due to a ridge axis extending down across Florida from the western Atlantic. The ridge currently driving our moderate to occasionally fresh northeast to east breezes will start to decay Thursday night and into Friday resulting in slackening winds across our CWA. A deep anticyclone currently located in the Gulf of Mexico will stick around for the weekend. From synopsis, a ridge axis across the western Atlantic will promote moderate to occasionally fresh northeast to east breezes today and tonight across the Keys coastal waters. Winds will back and gradually slacken as the ridge relaxes this weekend.
Latest surface analysis has high pressure centered just south of James Bay with ridge axis extending down into the northern Great Lakes while quasi-stationary boundary remains over the TN valley. Decent mid-level forcing as upper trof moves toward the area Friday morning with good isentropic ascent along the 300K surface will provide a modest influx of moisture to support a widespread but mainly light precip event. NBM still seems to be running a little cool with the extent of rain/snow mix Friday morning as ensemble means still have rain as dominant precip type and forecast soundings have sufficient above freezing surface base layer to support mainly rain as well.
(Today and tonight) The last bit of shower activity is working its way across the southeastern part of the forecast area as an upper level jet streak ejects from northeastern New Mexico and the northern Texas Panhandle, taking an upper level trough with it across the central Plains today.
A weak ridge of high pres wl bring a brief respite fm the wet weather pattern to the much of the remainder of the state Fri aftn and evening.
Temperatures this afternoon and tomorrow afternoon will climb into the low 80s along the coast and up to the mid 80s inland bringing additional record high temperatures to the cities of Houston and Galveston, and for Houston- Hobby and Palacios.
250 AM MST Thu Dec 8 2022 Synoptic Setup: On the large scale the forecast begins with a ridge running down the front range from northern British Columbia to Wyoming which is trapped in a progressive pattern. Just off the coast lies the trough jogging south from off of BC to off of northern California.
Calm winds and mostly clear skies have allowed temperatures to drop quickly overnight with readings 8-12 degrees cooler than the previous night. A weak short wave trough will pass north of Alabama later tonight and push the frontal boundary southward on Friday.
(Today through Friday afternoon) Upper low over WY this morning with a ridge centered over the Gulf. This low will pass onto the plains today as the next upper trough sets up along the West Coast. The trough will quickly move inland Friday as the low moves off keeping SW aloft over the region.
420 AM MST Thu Dec 8 2022 The upper level trough continues to sweep across southern WY this morning, and is spreading winter weather across Sweetwater County. The trough will quickly trek east along southern WY, and should be moving out of western WY by noon today. The next trough will be right on its heels late tonight into Friday. This trough is broader than this morning's wave, so it will be tapping more Pacific moisture as it reaches the western mountains Friday morning.
A transitory low amplitude ridge will shift overhead today.
With full cloud cover not expecting much temperature increase today, only perhaps into the lower 50s and the front to the south should remain well to the south today. Friday ridging builds in aloft and we get a bit more large scale subsidence, which should keep precip mostly at bay.
This lowers the ceilings for aviation. Could see some low stratus this morning across portions of southeastern North Dakota as warmer air advects over a cold snowpack. Highs today will be substantially warmer than yesterday, with widespread teens to low 20s.
325 PM EST Thu Dec 8 2022 Discussion/Marine -- Some accumulating snow Friday, freezing drizzle Friday night -- Models are trending slower and lighter with accumulations overall, although we do see an uptick in amounts near the I-94 corridor per some of the 12Z deterministic runs. Specifically, this low now looks like it could undergo a cyclonic wave break almost right over the forecast area close to the I-94 corridor. As noted previously, our subsequent concerns on Friday night would be freeze-up conditions and freezing drizzle. Air temperatures would probably not drop substantially below freezing until well after midnight Friday night. Any freezing drizzle that occurs would be more likely over the southern forecast area -- where snowy surfaces and wet/slushy roadways will already be present.
930 AM PST Thu Dec 8 2022 A weak trough along the West Coast will maintain cool weather for the remainder of the week under fair skies. Much colder air dropping south, into the trough this weekend will send a strong cold front across the State.
1122 AM CST Thu Dec 8 2022 (Today and tonight) The last bit of shower activity is working its way across the southeastern part of the forecast area as an upper level jet streak ejects from northeastern New Mexico and the northern Texas Panhandle, taking an upper level trough with it across the central Plains today.
An upper-level composite analysis this afternoon reveals a deep layer mean warm anticyclone centered over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico just west of the Florida Keys. The deep layer mean anticyclone will persist in a steady state through the next few days, before weakening under assault from cyclonic vorticity advections of midlatitude origin. A ridge axis across the western Atlantic will promote moderate to occasionally fresh northeast to east breezes this evening across the Keys coastal waters. Winds will back and gradually slacken as the ridge relaxes this weekend.
High pressure remains rooted in place over the area through Friday morning. This will mean highs only make it into the lower 80's today versus the middle 80's we saw yesterday. Highs Friday afternoon should top out in the lower 80's for most locations.
With conditions continuing to clear and temperatures steadily increasing, highs today will be in the high 70s and low 80s yielding another warmer than average day. Another unseasonably warm day is expected this afternoon with another record high forecast at Tallahassee in the lower 80s.
Winds will switch to a more northerly direction in its wake, advecting cooler and drier air into the region late tonight into Friday.
This profile suggests that neither the polar nor subtropical jet streams are nearby, with a likely deep layer mean anticyclone centered to the west of Key West (confirmed by an upper-level composite analysis).
Presuming that some breaks in the overcast stratus deck materialize (as indicated in forecast soundings), highs should be a couple of degrees warmer today, reaching the l-m 70s in most valley locations.
Winds near the east coast could stir enough due to the cold front to limit fog production there.
Light flow will allow the sea breeze to develop and move inland keeping coastal areas cooler in the mid 70s, with lower to middle 80s inland.
1042 AM CST Thu Dec 8 2022 (Today through Friday) A persistent subtropical 500 mb ridge over the Gulf of Mexico will continue to provide subsidence across Deep South Texas through the period. Lows tonight will fall into the mid 60s to the lower 70s. Isolated showers will be possible along the Lower Texas Coast late tonight into Friday due to a slight uptick in moisture. However, surface observations, satellite images and webcameras early this morning indicate that some patchy fog has developed along the Lower Texas coast.
(This afternoon through Friday night) An upper level trough is moving into the Central Plains and will move towards the Great Lakes area on Friday.
High pressure at the surface and aloft will continue to dominate through the weekend with fair dry weather expected.
A weak wave of low pressure rippling across the boundary will keep rain in the forecast through the overnight hours. Another wave of low pressure will ripple east along the front on Friday.
Given the absence of a true cold air source in vicinity of western Kansas, we will be seeing seasonal highs in the lower 50s tomorrow with lows both tonight and Friday Night generally in the 20s for most of the DDC forecast area.
By afternoon, there should be some more light snow showers in the high country. Models show a weak upper trough pushing eastward out of the eastern CWA Friday evening.
523 PM CST Thu Dec 8 2022 (This afternoon through Friday night) An upper level trough is moving into the Central Plains and will move towards the Great Lakes area on Friday.
Early evening water vapor satellite imagery is showing a dry airmass aloft associated with a broad ridge of high pressure. The highest chances for fog will be over the Nature Coast, but locations farther south could see some patchy fog as well. High pressure over the northern Gulf of Mexico will keep light winds and rain free conditions in place through the weekend.
A mid level ridge dominated the Keys sensible weather today and promoted dry and stable weather conditions over the island chains. Fair and stable weather and nil rain chances will continue late tonight and tomorrow as the high continues to exert it's force throughout the Keys. Overnight temperatures will be near the lower 70s and daytime high temperatures in the lower 80s, with northeast to east winds at 5 to 8 mph.
425 PM MST Thu Dec 8 2022 Near zonal flow in the upper levels has developed across the region, while a compact upper low embedded in the flow pushes eastward across central Nebraska. Just north of the low center, strong forcing is bringing a band of snow to southwest SD, and beginning to transition into south central SD. Surface obs and webcams across Fall River County show snowfall not accumulating because of temps just above freezing.
High pressure centered over the northern Gulf coast will continue to extend across central FL into tonight. Otherwise, dry conditions will prevail, as high pressure dominates at the surface and aloft, with skies mostly clear to partly cloudy. It will be slightly cooler into tonight, with lows in the upper 50s to low 60s across the interior and low 60s along much of the coast. Winds will be rather light and variable with high pressure extending across the area tonight, becoming NNW to NNE around 5 to 10 mph into tomorrow.
655 PM EST Thu Dec 8 2022 Aviation -- Some accumulating snow Friday, freezing drizzle Friday night -- Models are trending slower and lighter with accumulations overall, although we do see an uptick in amounts near the I-94 corridor per some of the 12Z deterministic runs. Specifically, this low now looks like it could undergo a cyclonic wave break almost right over the forecast area close to the I-94 corridor. As noted previously, our subsequent concerns on Friday night would be freeze-up conditions and freezing drizzle. Air temperatures would probably not drop substantially below freezing until well after midnight Friday night. Any freezing drizzle that occurs would be more likely over the southern forecast area -- where snowy surfaces and wet/slushy roadways will already be present.
228 PM MST Thu Dec 8 2022 Near zonal flow in the upper levels has developed across the region, while a compact upper low embedded in the flow pushes eastward across central Nebraska. Just north of the low center, strong forcing is bringing a band of snow to southwest SD, and beginning to transition into south central SD. Surface obs and webcams across Fall River County show snowfall not accumulating because of temps just above freezing.
A weak cold front will be making its way through the region tonight through Friday morning.
A back door cold front and cold air wedge will bring temperatures closer to normal Friday.
SREF and other models showed an upper trough moving into the area on Friday. The trough moves off to the E Fri. night and upper ridging builds into the area.
High pressure centered over Ern Canada is progged to ridge further across the Upper Ohio Valley region Friday, with mainly dry weather expected to start the day. However, the NBM over the last 12 to 24 hours has been trending down on precip chances/overall QPF due to the influence of the ridge. Note, areas along the highest terrain of the Laurel Highland and WV could see a brief period of light freezing rain with colder temperatures in upsloping erly flow if precip does form. Temperatures for both Friday/Saturday should remain seasonable or slightly above average with a building ridge.
120 AM CST Fri Dec 9 2022 Vertically stacked closed low over northwest Missouri this morning. Today the low over Missouri will sweep a front through that will dry out the lower layers just a bit and also provide enough subsidence to give us some sunshine this afternoon. That rain departs by evening and lower and mid level ridging starts to work in from the north.
1243 AM EST Fri Dec 9 2022 Aviation -- Some accumulating snow Friday, freezing drizzle Friday night -- Models are trending slower and lighter with accumulations overall, although we do see an uptick in amounts near the I-94 corridor per some of the 12Z deterministic runs. Specifically, this low now looks like it could undergo a cyclonic wave break almost right over the forecast area close to the I-94 corridor. As noted previously, our subsequent concerns on Friday night would be freeze-up conditions and freezing drizzle. Air temperatures would probably not drop substantially below freezing until well after midnight Friday night. Any freezing drizzle that occurs would be more likely over the southern forecast area -- where snowy surfaces and wet/slushy roadways will already be present.
(Today through Saturday) Deep layer ridging will result in mostly benign sensible weather conditions over the next couple of days.
329 AM EST Fri Dec 9 2022 High pressure to our north will bring several days of dry and gradually colder weather into Saturday.
Early morning lows in the lower 50s to lower 60s will quickly rise into the lower to mid 70s this afternoon.
The sfc pattern shows low pressure in the OK/TX panhandles with a diffuse stationary boundary extending into southeast KS. As the system exits the area this evening, dry air on the backside should scour out the low clouds and allow for clearing west to east tonight. The aforementioned upper wave is progged to move across the Rockies with its trough axis into the Dakotas and NE by early Saturday morning, though the better moisture appears to be with a weaker vort max within the southwest flow coming out of OK. HREF data tends to favor areas along and southeast of the KS Turnpike for the highest precip chances, and temperatures profiles would favor all rain. The rest of the weekend looks quiet with gradual warming ahead of the next trough as it digs into the western CONUS.
144 AM EST Fri Dec 9 2022 High pressure to our north will bring several days of dry and gradually colder weather into Saturday.
1157 PM CST Thu Dec 8 2022 (This evening through Saturday) A warm front in southern Arkansas will lift to the north overnight. This will be followed by a cold front from the Plains late tonight/Friday, with the latter front settling close to the Arkansas/Louisiana border.
Patchy valley fog (and patchy freezing fog where temperatures are <=32F) should dissipate by mid- morning. The next trough should return rain to the region Saturday night, with critical thicknesses and model soundings indicating a period of snow or rain/snow mix is possible in the higher terrain and areas N of I 80.
Near zonal flow in the upper levels has developed across the region, while a compact upper low embedded in the flow pushes eastward across central Nebraska. Just north of the low center, strong forcing is bringing a band of snow to southwest SD, and beginning to transition into south central SD. Surface obs and webcams across Fall River County show snowfall not accumulating because of temps just above freezing.
1118 PM EST Thu Dec 8 2022 High pressure to our north will bring several days of dry and gradually colder weather into Saturday.
221 AM CST Fri Dec 9 2022 Fog and stratus along and east of the Missouri river in north central South Dakota and into the James valley persist this morning, as well as pockets over the Sisseton hills, where a little freezing drizzle has been observed on webcams and via MPING reports. We also will see increased mid and high clouds associated with a mid level trough.
1131 PM EST Thu Dec 8 2022 High pressure to our north will bring several days of dry and gradually colder weather into Saturday.
Although forcing has mostly departed as a wave has moved east through Kentucky, weak ENE surface flow is only very slowly leading to some erosion of the low level moisture. The end result is that the northeastern portion of the ILN CWA is seeing a scattering out of the low clouds, while they remain more entrenched over the southern portions. Weak mid level ridging will shift east across the area Friday morning ahead of a weakening mid level short wave moving from the upper Mississippi Valley into the Southern Great Lakes Friday afternoon into Friday night.