Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
(This evening through Thursday) An upper level trough with an associated upper-level cyclone is currently Oklahoma/western north Texas, and is gradually exiting the region to the east. In a trough axis to the west, scattered altocumulus has developed across the Texas panhandle and through western Oklahoma and western north Texas. Skies will clear as the upper level trough moves eastward and ridging sets into the region. Thursday will be warmer due to the clear skies, with highs climbing into the mid to upper 60s.
330 PM EDT Wed Mar 23 2022 Our risk of severe weather is beginning to wind down as convection ahead of an eastwardly moving cold front continues to work itself out of the CWA. Tomorrow, as the upper trough pushes the low pressure system to the northeast, another upper low embedded in the trough surges northeast over the CWA.
145 PM CDT Wed Mar 23 2022 A large amplitude upper low/trough over the central U. is producing deep south-southwest flow across the TN valley this afternoon behind the surface cold front now crossing into GA and east TN. Gustiness will subside this evening and with temperatures sliding into the lower 40s for lows. One of the multiple vorticity maxima now associated with the trough was over OK and is forecast to eject into western KY/TN by late tonight. In advance of the trough and this wave, cold advection aloft and steep lapse rates have generated a large area of cumulus/stratocumulus across the mid South and entering the TN valley.
Upper level ridging extends northward through the western Atlantic while a large upper level low sits over the western Great Lakes region with troughing extending south through Texas. On the surface, high pressure remains in control for one more day before the weather begins to deteriorate as the next cold front moves through the Florida peninsula late tonight into Thursday. Most of the showers and storms today will be more sea breeze driven with the highest coverage over the interior during the afternoon hours. The big weather concern will be with a passing cold front that is currently extending south from an area of low pressure near the Great Lakes region.
235 PM CDT Wed Mar 23 2022 A deep broad upper low is currently situated over the Mid Mississippi Valley with a number of impulses rotating around this feature. Will continue to see periods of light precip affect eastern KS tonight into Thu morning as a few pieces of energy continue rotating around the backside of the upper low. By Thu afternoon, upper trough is expected to extend from the Great Lakes region through the Mid Mississippi Valley and into the Arklatex region. Did notice that the latest NBM did push the warmer temps slightly further to the southwest for Sun, but it still looks like fairly comfortable highs in the 60s. Warmer temps will start to overspread the region for the start of the work week as we get back into return flow ahead of our next approaching upper trough.
A slight chill may still plague the air behind yesterday's cold front; however, it should be slightly mitigated by ample sunshine throughout the afternoon. A few of our colder spots across our west could see a light freeze, though the vast majority will remain above freezing. Slightly warmer weather is expected tomorrow, with elevated to near-critical grassfire conditions expected west of I-35 Thursday afternoon. /Issued 237 AM CDT Wed Mar 23 2022/ /Thursday night Onward/ Sensible weather conditions through the weekend will remain fairly calm as the long wave trough that lead to the inclement weather conditions across the Southern Plains finally moves east. In its wake, all guidance is in fairly good agreement that upper ridging will move across the Central and Southern Plains, leading to a stretch of above normal temperatures and precipitation free conditions.
304 PM CDT Wed Mar 23 2022 The vertically stacked low pressure system currently sitting over the Mid-Mississippi Valley is slowly moving east. Below freezing air at 850 mb will be advected into the area tonight, making for a seasonably cool night. Cooler air paired with thick cloud cover will stunt highs Thursday, leaving them in the 40s areawide.
The overnight inversion mixes out by 16Z with some gustiness returning through the day on Thursday with gusts in the low 30 mph range. The ridge aloft moves in from the west as it flattens on Thursday with highs warming into the 60s ahead of the next weak cold front that sweeps through the area Thursday night.
Overall, expect somewhat cooler temperatures today, but a couple of records could be reached, particularly in northern California and east of the Cascades. Offshore high pressure will be in place Wednesday into Thursday with north winds continuing over the waters.
A cold front will move southeast into region and stall Tonight. This will continue to provide shower and thunderstorms chances, but the thunderstorms will likely be weaker as cooler and more stable air will moves in through the day. Temperatures on Thursday will fall through the day, with the high for the day in most locations occuring in the morning, with readings generally falling about 5 degrees from sunrise to sunset.
Temperatures are warming nicely today ahead of the approaching cold front, and showers are already developing in weak instability in eastern Washington through northern Idaho and northwest Montana. Showers will increase in coverage this evening and overnight as the cold front advances and passes through north- central Idaho and western Montana.
The severe storm threat will linger through early Thursday morning as a cold front moves across the Southeast.
Could possibly be a LLWS concern later tonight, but right now looks like the jet will move off around this time and hopefully winds in the lower levels of the atmosphere calm down as well. ABM Chattanooga Airport, TN 43 63 43 59 41 / 10 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 45 62 44 56 40 / 20 10 10 20 0 Oak Ridge, TN 43 62 42 57 39 / 20 0 0 10 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 45 62 40 53 38 / 30 10 10 40 30 NC.
Temperatures are in the lower to mid 80s with dewpoints a couple degrees above 70. A broad and positively tilted long wave trough reaches southwest into Mexico. Ahead of the trough, a frontal zone stretches southwest across the Gulf of Mexico. The temp/dp readings across the northern Gulf are cooler and drier, but not artic. The Cuban showers will struggle this evening, but eventually a few should round the corner and affect areas between the Lower Keys and the Dry Tortugas overnight.
/issued 1052 AM CDT Wed Mar 23 2022/ A large upper trough covers the Mid-Mississippi Valley into the Arklatex. There will be a few light showers or patchy drizzle with highs mainly in the lower 50s.
1142 AM EDT Wed Mar 23 2022 Showers and thunderstorms will plague the region through tonight with crossing low pressure.
1030 AM PDT Wed Mar 23 2022 High pressure aloft and offshore flow will continue the warming trend today.
An elongated upper-level ridge continues to build over the region, maintaining mild and dry conditions through the rest of today. A ridge of high pressure aloft will bring the warmest temperatures of the season so far before a passing trough brings a few showers, cooler temperatures, and breezy conditions for Thursday. /ISSUED 310 AM MDT Wed Mar 23 2022/ The elongated upper-level ridge extending well into Canada continues to propagate eastward across the state.
With dewpoints in the 40s over the cooler lake temperatures fog is expected to persist just off shore into the overnight hours.
Radar, obs and satellite imagery indicate the cold front was nearing the GA state line. The upper level closed low will amplify and shift further southeastward on Thursday. All of these factors will lead to cooler highs in the low 60s for most locations.
1026 AM PDT Wed Mar 23 2022 Today will be warmer with a chance for showers across the Idaho Panhandle and eastern Washington during the afternoon and evening.
244 PM CDT Wed Mar 23 2022 A secondary upper level trof will swing around the base of the main upper low located over the Midwest tonight, and then eject northeast up through the OH River Valley on Thursday, as yest another short wave rotates southeast into the MO Valley region. Model consensus seems to indicate that most of the light showers associated with this system will generally stay n/w of the first upper low track (i. The main weather story for Thursday will likely lie with the extensive cloud cover and unseasonably cool temperatures in the upper 40s to the lower half of the 50s.
830 AM PDT Wed Mar 23 2022 Wednesday will be warmer with a chance for showers across the Idaho Panhandle and eastern Washington during the afternoon and evening.
Cold front also continues moving across Middle Tennessee this afternoon, with a wide range of temperatures from around 50 along the Tennessee River to the low 70s in far eastern Cumberland County. After today, cooler and generally dry weather is anticipated the rest of the week and upcoming weekend as we become entrenched in deep northwest flow aloft.
An upper level ridge and southerly flow will bring warmer temperatures today, reaching the upper 60s to lower 70s in the lower valleys. A weak trough will move inland to our north tonight resulting in increasing clouds later this afternoon and a slight chance of rain across the far northern mountains.
Large scale trough and fractured upper low remain just to our west tonight.
1106 AM EDT Wed Mar 23 2022 Deep convection continues to thrive across the northeastern Gulf of Mexico ahead of a cold front. From synopsis, breezes will slacken this afternoon through Thursday as high pressure recedes to the east into the western North Atlantic.
A secondary upper level trof will swing around the base of the main upper low located over the Midwest tonight, and then eject northeast up through the OH River Valley on Thursday, as yest another short wave rotates southeast into the MO Valley region. Model consensus seems to indicate that most of the light showers associated with this system will generally stay n/w of the first upper low track (i. The main weather story for Thursday will likely lie with the extensive cloud cover and unseasonably cool temperatures in the upper 40s to the lower half of the 50s.
Increased clouds this evening with passage of a weak trough to our north. Otherwise, skies will clear overnight with the upper level ridge rebuilding on Thursday. Slightly cooler temperatures expected on Thursday but record to near record high temperatures expected this weekend.
While the low level shear has been very strong it's mostly been unidirectional which isn't allowing most of these storms to maintain and mature. Temperatures will be cooler tomorrow without the jet bringing in the warm air from the south.
530 PM EDT Wed Mar 23 2022 20Z sfc analysis shows a deep and mature area of low pressure to the north of Kentucky with its occluded front now east of the state. Now they have turned more completely southwest bringing in cooler air but not before temperatures were able to peak in the mid to upper 70s and even a few lower 80s this afternoon.
746 PM EDT Wed Mar 23 2022 Severe weather threat continues this afternoon as potent low pressure tracks to the Great Lakes. Drier and cooler air circulating around the low will bring an end to showers and thunderstorms tonight.
Eventually the high pressure will win out but how long that takes is uncertain in regards to sky cover.
20Z sfc analysis shows a deep and mature area of low pressure to the north of Kentucky with its occluded front now east of the state. Now they have turned more completely southwest bringing in cooler air but not before temperatures were able to peak in the mid to upper 70s and even a few lower 80s this afternoon.
Clouds are going to hang tough for several more hours, though, so while temperatures will remain mild, the remaining breeze will make it feel much cooler this evening. Winds will increase again during the day on Thursday as an upper low continues to spin to our northwest.
933 PM EDT Wed Mar 23 2022 A frontal boundary over the southern United States will continue to move east/southeast through the end of the work-week and cause high pressure over the Western Atlantic to retreat further to the east. We should see showers develop near the Lower Keys and the Dry Tortugas during the overnight hours, which the CAMs-CAR depicts. Breezes have slacken tonight as the high pressure continues to slide east into the western Atlantic.
As upper trough/thermal trough passes over north-central Oklahoma this evening and overnight, light precipitation will be possible. (This evening through Thursday) An upper level trough with an associated upper-level cyclone is currently Oklahoma/western north Texas, and is gradually exiting the region to the east. In a trough axis to the west, scattered altocumulus has developed across the Texas panhandle and through western Oklahoma and western north Texas. Skies will clear as the upper level trough moves eastward and ridging sets into the region. Thursday will be warmer due to the clear skies, with highs climbing into the mid to upper 60s.
Ridging aloft will continue to build into the region this evening and overnight, resulting in calm and cool conditions. Tomorrow, a northeast orientated ridge is going to settle over west central portions of North Dakota. A short wave trough over Saskatchewan will dig into the northern plains by the evening hours Thursday. High temperatures are forecast to warm up into the 50s to 60s due to compressional warming from an advancing cold front.
Sfc cold front that sparked afternoon showers and a few storms across our region has pushed off to the east, yet our winds remain mostly a southwesterly component and gusty. Expect temps to bottom out in the low 40s by tomorrow morning with breezy southwest winds. Our risk of severe weather is beginning to wind down as convection ahead of an eastwardly moving cold front continues to work itself out of the CWA. Tomorrow, as the upper trough pushes the low pressure system to the northeast, another upper low embedded in the trough surges northeast over the CWA.
A cold front is moving across the area this afternoon with showers into this evening.
High pressure at the surface will begin to move into the region from the southwest and subsidence from this feature should help create mostly clear conditions late tonight into Thursday morning. Lows tonight will run considerably cooler than last night thanks to the cooler, drier air mass that is filtering into the region. Elsewhere, lows in the lower 40s will be common.
1004 PM EDT Wed Mar 23 2022 A cold front will move to the Carolina coast on Thursday.
STP The first half of the extended will be dominated by a building high pressure over the western US.
410 PM CDT Wed Mar 23 2022 Overall much more benign with cool and dry weather is in store for the area through the short term as the upper level trough currently in the middle of the US continues to move towards the east coast.
One saving grace may be that a low pressure trough is expected to bring cloudy skies and slightly more moist air through the region during the day. ----BMickelson Previous discussion: Upper ridge over the area today will be flattened by a disturbance that sends a cold front east through the area early tomorrow (Thursday). The cold front will kick up northwest winds by the afternoon with gusts of 45 to possibly 50 mph.
A large amplitude upper low/trough over the central U. is producing deep south-southwest flow across the TN valley this afternoon behind the surface cold front now crossing into GA and east TN. Gustiness will subside this evening and with temperatures sliding into the lower 40s for lows. One of the multiple vorticity maxima now associated with the trough was over OK and is forecast to eject into western KY/TN by late tonight. In advance of the trough and this wave, cold advection aloft and steep lapse rates have generated a large area of cumulus/stratocumulus across the mid South and entering the TN valley.
Our risk of severe weather is beginning to wind down as convection ahead of an eastwardly moving cold front continues to work itself out of the CWA. Tomorrow, as the upper trough pushes the low pressure system to the northeast, another upper low embedded in the trough surges northeast over the CWA.
607 PM EDT Wed Mar 23 2022 A cold front will move to the Carolina coast on Thursday.
(The rest of tonight) Slight chance pops were added for a light rain/snow mix across portions of northeast Oklahoma overnight in association with approaching mid level short wave on backside of upper trough. The upper low plaguing the area currently will finally pull away from the region tomorrow, leading to an overall decrease in cloud cover by the end of the day in addition to decreasing light rain chances in northwest Arkansas. Expect a good gradient in high temperatures from west to east, with cooler temperatures in northwest Arkansas which will remain in cloud cover for a longer period of time. With clearing skies and decreasing wind speeds, overnight lows tomorrow should be the coolest of the period, featuring values near to just above freezing in some areas.
531 PM MDT Wed Mar 23 2022 High pressure has taken the controls for the near future across western Colorado and eastern Utah. With mostly clear skies and light winds, temperatures will drop to freezing in low valleys tonight and elevated valleys will see 15 to 20 degrees. As high pressure builds in, models are nudging up temperatures run to run. This is when the EPac Ridge is forced across the Intermountain West to the lee of the Rockies.
313 PM PDT Wed Mar 23 2022 Record high temperatures will be possible for the next several days as an upper level ridge of high pressure builds in over the silver state.
457 PM CDT Wed Mar 23 2022 Summary: Light snow, possibly mixed with drizzle or freezing drizzle, will taper off tonight.
Mainly widely scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms expected midweek with weaker forcing and upper ridging. Overnight lows will be in the low to mid 70s. An area of low pressure is expected to form off the Southeast coast and move northeastward. Overnight lows in the lower 70s.
Late tomorrow morning a cold front will slide south through the area leading to a wind shift and the potential for more shower and thunderstorm development. /issued 237 PM CDT Sun Aug 30 2020/ Late afternoon/early evening thunderstorms expected to develop along a weak trough axis across the southeastern Panhandle, assuming flow to its north can back sufficiently to generate some low level convergence. The beginning in the change in pattern occurs tomorrow as a sharp upper level short wave trough moves across the northern Plains driving a cold front south into the forecast after sunrise Monday. With the front expected to stall the warmer end of guidance looks the more likely at this time. The first hints of the upper level low impacting our weather this week, will be seen in the form of snow across the northern Rockies tomorrow afternoon.
934 PM EDT Sun Aug 30 2020 Weak high pressure builds in from the north into Monday.
Cold front will continue to push across the state this afternoon/evening bringing some breezy winds and scattered showers and thunderstorms. Currently the cold front has moved across much of the CWA with James River Valley being the last hold out.
The highest rain chances later tonight will be over the northern coastal waters moving into the Nature Coast, then from around the Tampa Bay area northward during Monday morning before spreading inland and into the interior during Monday afternoon.
522 PM EDT Sun Aug 30 2020 Rain chances increase tomorrow, mainly southeast of Pittsburgh, as low pressure tracks into the central Appalachians. Dry conditions will persist overnight under high pressure. An incoming low pressure system will increase cloud coverage from the south after midnight. Some uncertainty in the trough positioning remains, with potential for slightly farther northern and delayed track that may allow for isolated convection farther west. Remnant cooler air plus increasing cloud cover will provide near to below average temperatures Monday.
A cold front was also occurring with the area of low pressure. An upper level trough extended south into Montana this afternoon and will move into the Northland along with the low and front. Dry conditions will continue into Monday night and it will be cool with lows from the lower to mid forties far north to the mid forties to around fifty south.
The cold front is currently about mid-way through western KS/eastern CO and is pushing south. As for the high temps today, the cooler air filtering in behind the front will bring highs in the 70s to the northern zones and 80s to the southern zones.
Tonight the main weather feature will be a cold front moving through southwest Kansas after midnight.
/issued 237 PM CDT Sun Aug 30 2020/ Late afternoon/early evening thunderstorms expected to develop along a weak trough axis across the southeastern Panhandle, assuming flow to its north can back sufficiently to generate some low level convergence. The beginning in the change in pattern occurs tomorrow as a sharp upper level short wave trough moves across the northern Plains driving a cold front south into the forecast after sunrise Monday. With the front expected to stall the warmer end of guidance looks the more likely at this time. The first hints of the upper level low impacting our weather this week, will be seen in the form of snow across the northern Rockies tomorrow afternoon.
1035 PM MDT Sun Aug 30 2020 Cold front crossing the area is readily apparent in obs, including radar imagery, this afternoon. As temperatures cool to near freezing in the hills and the wind abates, areas of frost will likely develop in higher terrain after midnight. Mid-upper moisture increases again tomorrow as an upper trof axis approaches, then crosses, the area. Sustained winds of 20 to 35 mph with gusts as high as 55 mph are expected, with the highest gusts from Harding and Perkins southward through the Pennington and Custer plains.
Temperatures will warm a few degrees today, as southerly winds increase ahead of an approaching cold front.
The upper trough will then move from southern BC into Idaho on Monday.
Cold front will push into far northeast Oklahoma this afternoon with atmosphere becoming very unstable as low level moisture pools ahead of boundary with dew-points climbing in the upper 70s.
A low pressure system and associated cold front will arrive today.
Surface observations and radar trends reveal the cold front has just entered our area moving southeast. This front will crash through southwest Kansas over the next several hours transporting much cooler air via strong northerly winds in the 20-30 mph range with gusts in excess of 40 mph possible.
1222 AM EDT Mon Aug 31 2020 Rain chances will increase today, mainly south and east of Pittsburgh, as low pressure tracks into the central Appalachians. Dry conditions persist early this morning under high pressure, though cloud cover will continue to increase from the south with advancing low pressure. Some uncertainty in the trough positioning remains, with potential for slightly farther northern and delayed track that may allow for isolated convection farther west. Remnant cooler air plus increasing cloud cover will provide near to below average temperatures Monday.
Mainly widely scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms expected midweek with weaker forcing and upper ridging. Low pressure off the Southeast Coast will continue moving northeast. Moisture flux increase today as a low/mid level trough moves into the area from the west. High temperatures will range from the mid 80s to lower 90s with lows tonight in the low to mid 70s.
Mid level ridging is on track to spread across the area.