Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Dry weather will continue through tonight, but temperatures should be a few degrees warmer as winds become more southerly and cloud cover increases from the west. As an upper trough moves across the region and sends a frontal boundary toward us, this will allow for pretty much daily shower and thunderstorm chances for our region through the week into the weekend. The trough won't be quick to move through the region but should be exiting stage east by the weekend. This will bring high pressure at the surface and upper ridging back to the region.
Most sites are a little warmer in the mid to upper 50s north of I-20 and then even mixing in some warmer 60s in deep E Texas. The upper trough will push a little farther to the east and bring better focus to the SW flow aloft.
657 AM EDT Mon May 31 2021 High pressure centered over the Upper Ohio Valley and Mid Atlantic region will gain even more control of our weather to end the long holiday weekend. This low will continue to shift northeast along the Atlantic coast line in New England. Temperatures will be pleasant with highs a tad cooler than normal, but perfect to be outside in. Latest guidance suggesting a weak short wave trough will cross the region late Monday night and early tuesday. This wave will exit east by Tuesday afternoon with increasing sunshine and temperatures reaching the lower to mid 70s.
Temperatures are running anywhere from 5 to 15 degrees warmer than this time yesterday. Ensemble guidance is in very good agreement high pressure over the region will lead to a dangerously hot Memorial Day with record highs possible across interior Northern California. Ensemble guidance also indicates a possible low pressure system edging into the Pacific Northwest by mid to late week weakening the upper-level ridge.
/issued 328 AM CDT Mon May 31 2021/ A weak ridge should keep conditions dry today. Temperatures will be a bit warmer, climbing into the low 80s across most of the Midsouth. A deepening trough over the southwestern US will strengthen southwest flow over the Southern Plains and across the lower and middle Mississippi River valley. The ridge will slowly break down and shift east this afternoon and overnight. This feature along with an attendant surface cold front will bring a round of showers and thunderstorms into eastern Arkansas early Tuesday.
The lowest ceilings appear to be affecting areas from KPVW north and northwest with the potential to sag southward toward KLBB. Low level focus for additional convective development this evening to overnight should begin to shift further south as reinforced outflow shifts southward and cooler air mass across the forecast area gets a bit deeper. The base of the upper trough to our west is progged to cut off over Baja California by midweek with the remainder of the upper trough expected to shift slowly eastward toward the Mississippi Valley. Meanwhile, an amplifying ridge over the West Coast will begin to expand eastward toward the Great Plains late in the week.
726 AM EDT Mon May 31 2021 Following a dismal holiday weekend, Memorial Day will be dry and much warmer across Central Pennsylvania.
Dry weather will continue today as high pressure remains in control across the region. Dry weather will continue through tonight, but temperatures should be a few degrees warmer as winds become more southerly and cloud cover increases from the west. As an upper trough moves across the region and sends a frontal boundary toward us, this will allow for pretty much daily shower and thunderstorm chances for our region through the week into the weekend. The trough won't be quick to move through the region but should be exiting stage east by the weekend. This will bring high pressure at the surface and upper ridging back to the region.
A stationary front was located across the central Florida peninsula this morning, while a weak upper level low was also noted over east central Florida drifting southeast. High pressure well north of the waters will maintain a light easterly wind flow with slight seas over the Gulf waters the remainder of today with winds becoming onshore along the coast with the sea breeze during the afternoon.
352 AM MDT Mon May 31 2021 A large upper level ridge pattern setting up across the western U. Thanks to the associated large scale subsidence, this weather pattern will hold until the ridge axis translates downstream and diffluent upper level southwest flow sets up over the Northern High Plains late in the week.
Temperatures will again show little diurnal range, holding in the lower 50s for many. Models agree the primary cool mid level trough axis will bisect SW KS through Tuesday.
We could see very light precip as early as this afternoon over our far western counties, but with dry air still in place the high based ceilings will have a tough time of it getting much appreciable rainfall through early this evening.
259 AM PDT Mon May 31 2021 High pressure strengthens over the region through midweek with building heat as high temperatures rise several degrees each day.
1042 AM EDT Mon May 31 2021 High pressure will control the weather pattern across the lower mid-Atlantic today and Tuesday, resulting in warmer temperatures and drier conditions.
It is very chilly for the last day of May, with a handful of locations reporting sub-freezing overnight lows. High pressure sits over the Northern Plains this morning, which has allowed temperatures to fall near freezing in low lying areas across western and north central North Dakota. The high will slowly drift off to the south and east today as a transient upper ridge passes through. Aside from this potential, Tuesday will mark the beginning of a warming trend with dry weather through the end of the work week as upper level ridging builds over the western CONUS and then shifts into the Northern Plains.
Surface ridging emanating north of a 1028 mb anticyclone anchored over the lower Ohio valley will continue to govern conditions throughout the Memorial holiday. A dry and seasonable environment will mark conditions Tuesday as low- mid level ridging briefly takes hold.
Boxell (Issued 320 AM CDT Mon May 31 2021) Today through Tuesday: Temperatures are starting out much more mild today, with early morning readings in the low to mid 50s.
632 AM EDT Mon May 31 2021 High pressure centered over the area today will move off to the mid-Atlantic coast tonight.
701 AM EDT Mon May 31 2021 High pressure will control the weather pattern across the lower mid-Atlantic today and Tuesday, resulting in warmer temperatures and drier conditions.
1025 AM EDT Mon May 31 2021 Active convection continues across the Atlantic waters this morning near a mid level trough aloft that will slide slowly southeast toward southeast FL this afternoon. A weak front stalled across the area will gradually fade, with high pressure to the north generating E/NE winds up to 10- 15 knots over the waters by this afternoon.
AM MDT Mon May 31 2021 An upper level positive tilted trough is expected to track eastward towards the Midwest, with a ridge of high pressure coming on-board from the western seaboard. However, high-resolution models remain in fairly good agreement that much of the precipitation is expected to remain to the south, with better chances along the higher terrains and in the Rockie Mountains.
216 PM CDT Mon May 31 2021 It's an absolutely perfect Memorial Day afternoon with very little cloud cover and temperatures in the low to mid 70s. We are situated within zonal flow with an upper trough approaching the Great Lakes and very broad troughing in the Southwest. The northern trough will pass to the north with no consequences to our area. The broad troughing to the west will impact the weather over the next few days. The general trough axis will slowly slide eastward with a couple impulses ejecting.
806 AM PDT Mon May 31 2021 A stable Spring weather pattern will prevail this week over Southern California with low pressure to the south and high pressure to the north.
353 PM EDT Mon May 31 2021 High pressure over the Ohio Valley will shift off to the east tonight.
400 PM EDT Mon May 31 2021 Tonight brings one last round of cooler air before a warming trend returns temperatures back to where they are supposed to be for meteorological summer. High pressure moves offshore, creating strong return flow for the coastal Carolinas. Quiet near term period thanks to high pressure centered near the area. Area warms up tomorrow with highs in the low to mid 80s and scattered afternoon cumulus clouds. Lows Tuesday night in the low 60s away from the coast.
The upper level trough supporting the convection will slowly move east tomorrow allowing PoPs to diminish the remainder of the week. However the trough will deposit a cutoff low over Mexico that will linger for several days continuing some chance for scattered showers.
Clouds will be on the decrease again Tuesday night as the highly amplified ridge to our west tries to start nudging in. The warmup continues through the end of the work week with only minimal chances of precipitation from weak waves moving down the ridge centered to our west.
A layer of dry air around 700mb associated with ridging over the SE CONUS is helping suppress activity so far today, with the exception of maybe one or two very brief showers noted on radar. Overnight into Tuesday, broad mid/upper troughing develops from the central Plains into the east CONUS. Combined with PVA around the base of the aforementioned trough and diurnal heating, much more support exists for more widespread activity. NASA SPoRT shows soil is unsurprisingly still quite moist, so given the high PWATS and instability, convection will be capable of periodically heavy rainfall and the threat of some localized ponding/flooding will need to be monitored.
336 PM EDT Mon May 31 2021 High pressure centered over the area will move off to the mid- Atlantic coast tonight.
High pressure centered over the area today will move off to the mid-Atlantic coast tonight.
A midlevel trough axis passes overhead early Tuesday with ceilings clearing out during the morning. Surface ridging emanating north of a 1028 mb anticyclone anchored over the lower Ohio valley will continue to govern conditions throughout the Memorial holiday. A dry and seasonable environment will mark conditions Tuesday as low- mid level ridging briefly takes hold.
303 PM CDT Mon May 31 2021 20Z water vapor and profiler data suggests a couple vort maximum within a broader upper trough over the southern U. And surface obs show an inverted trough over the southern plains with high pressure across northern KS.
1135 AM MDT Mon May 31 2021 H5 ridge continues to build along the West Coast during the next 36 hours, keeping western and central WY in northwesterly flow aloft. Although there may be some slight lift with this, the lack of surface focusing and moisture will minimize any convective development, and limit it to the highest elevations of the Winds, Absarokas, and Big Horns during peak heating. With strengthening ridge and increasing midlevel temps, highs will continue to recover into the 70s today and Tuesday. with 60s across the Parks and 50s for the highest elevations. The beginning of the period has a ridge axis located across western portions of Oregon and Washington with northwesterly flow over the CWA.
The high pressure will gradually drift eastward as the day wears on, but will remain the main player for the TN Valley today. Low-level temps, NBM guidance, and morning rules of thumb all point to highs warming nicely into the lower (and perhaps a few mid) 80s this afternoon. A quasi-zonal upper flow pattern across the region today will gradually evolve into SW-NE upper flow as a trough develops in the Central CONUS. Deepening S-SW flow in the low-mid levels will occur on Tuesday as the trough moves closer to the region.
The upper low currently over the southwestern CONUS will cut off over Baja California on Tuesday and remain there for much of this week. We will come under the influence of westerly/northwesterly flow aloft as an upper level trough moves across the Plains. An upper ridge building over the western CONUS on Tuesday will develop a pseudo like rex blocking pattern for the next several days.
245 PM CDT Mon May 31 2021 Presently, high pressure sits over the region leading to calm winds and sunny skies. A gradual warming trend takes place through the period as a west CONUS ridge, along with southerly flow in the lower levels, gradually works its way eastward through the week.
233 PM MDT Mon May 31 2021 Upper northwest flow continues over the area today and Tuesday as the ridge continues to strengthen over the western CONUS. Temperatures will begin warming in earnest Tuesday as the ridging builds further, with highs over 5 degrees above normal at many locations.
At the surface, a low pressure system was situated across south-central Oklahoma with a shield of showery precipitation extending northward from the low into northern Oklahoma and eastern Kansas. In total, the highest rainfall amounts should set up south of the Highway 60 corridor, generally ranging from 1-2 inches, with localized higher amounts possible through Tuesday night. Rainfall amounts should taper off with with northward extent, generally around 1 inch or less to the north of the Highway 60 corridor.
VFR conditions at all terminals through the period as high pressure is centered just off to our southeast. Fog not expected to be an issue tonight with the warmer overnight temperatures and increasing high clouds late in the night. SR Chattanooga Airport, TN 60 85 65 86 67 / 0 0 10 20 40 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 57 83 63 84 66 / 0 0 10 20 40 Oak Ridge, TN 57 82 61 83 64 / 0 0 10 30 40 Tri Cities Airport, TN 53 81 60 82 63 / 0 10 10 20 30.
312 PM EDT Mon May 31 2021 A quiet night is in store with low temperatures primarily in the lower 50s.
Patterson (Issued 320 AM CDT Mon May 31 2021) Today through Tuesday: Temperatures are starting out much more mild today, with early morning readings in the low to mid 50s.
Ridging and dry air in the mid-levels will hinder most chances of precipitation until later this evening. Most sites are a little warmer in the mid to upper 50s north of I-20 and then even mixing in some warmer 60s in deep E Texas. The upper trough will push a little farther to the east and bring better focus to the SW flow aloft.
157 PM MDT Mon May 31 2021 Latest surface analysis shows high pressure over the eastern Dakotas/Nebraska with a weakly defined area of low pressure over central Montana/western Wyoming, tightening the surface pressure gradient and creating breezy southerly winds over the forecast area.
251 PM EDT Mon May 31 2021 High pressure and unremarkable zonal flow aloft will continue to keep us dry this evening and tonight. The mid and upper pattern will transition to a more SW deep layer flow over our region by Tuesday in response to an amplifying central CONUS trough.
If the cirrus is thick enough, soon enough, much of the area could end up warmer.
For a few hours late this afternoon we will still have the influence of colder temperatures aloft with the passing mid-level trough, so any stronger updrafts might be able to muster up some small hail along with sub-severe wind gusts.
/issued 920 AM CDT Mon May 31 2021/ Convectively enhanced cold front will continue to move south this morning through the afternoon and will likely be the focus for severe convection this afternoon. Low level focus for additional convective development this evening to overnight should begin to shift further south as reinforced outflow shifts southward and cooler air mass across the forecast area gets a bit deeper. The base of the upper trough to our west is progged to cut off over Baja California by midweek with the remainder of the upper trough expected to shift slowly eastward toward the Mississippi Valley. Meanwhile, an amplifying ridge over the West Coast will begin to expand eastward toward the Great Plains late in the week.
To the south of the Red River, a small complex of storms is ongoing over western north TX, and is expected to evolve into a larger scale MCS and sweep east and south roughly along the surface warm front. To the north of this tonight across our area, the HRRR has been fairly consistent in showing an axis of showers and storms setting up near or south of the I-44 corridor in NE OK and spreading into NW AR toward Tuesday morning, near the elevated warm front and in advance of the low/MCV moving east from western OK.
159 PM MDT Mon May 31 2021 Upper level ridge has built into the area and a warming trend has commenced.
Ridging and dry air in the mid-levels will hinder most chances of precipitation until later this evening.
221 PM CDT Mon May 31 2021 Quiet weather with few impacts in the short term as the center of a high pressure system lingers over south central ND. High pressure slides off to the southeast tonight and will set up return flow into eastern North Dakota tomorrow. Fire weather concerns will be very dependent on extent of cloud cover and my thinking is temperatures will be a few degrees cooler than previously thought, resulting in humidity values in the upper 20s.
The water vapor loop this morning is showing a trough of low pressure over Arizona this morning. The southern part of this trough over southern Arizona and across The Baja is very dry. Trough remains remains in control of the weather through today, with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms developing over the higher terrain this afternoon. The upper-level low nearly remaining locked in place over to the south over the Baja California Peninsula through the week and high pressure building north and west of Arizona. The greatest chance for precipitation looks to be over the higher terrain along the Rim and into the White Mountains.
RAP forecast analysis indicates modest ridging ~700mb holding over the SE CONUS today, which results in a good dry layer and suppression of most activity. Temperatures range from the upper 50s in central Louisiana to the lower 70s near the coast.
The upper trough axis is still well west of Colorado at this time. Models show the trough axis over the CWA from our northeast corner to the southwest corner by mid afternoon. There may be just enough moisture and instability, for a slight chc of showers and storms, over the higher terrain. For Thu into Fri, an upper level high will build into the area. The GFS continues to show some moisture affecting the higher terrain while the ECMWF is drier. Highs will be even warmer as readings will be in the 80's both days over nern CO.
234 PM EDT Mon May 31 2021 The progressive pattern will continue throughout the short term, as the previous day's ridge has now exited the region. Behind the ridge, some increased winds aloft and moisture downstream of the loft has lead to mostly cloudy skies over most of central Indiana. These upper level clouds will still have some effect on the overall temperature gains this afternoon, but highs should still get into the low to mid 70s.
With the mid-level trough lingering offshore near the Bahamas, activity will likely continue over the Atlantic waters overnight and spread close to the east coast metro through the morning hours.
Pleasant conditions continue across Central AL resulting from broad ridging centered over the Mid-Atlantic coast. Now that winds are out of the south, temperature readings today will top out about 10 degrees warmer than yesterday, and warmer overnight as well with lows in the upper 50s/lower 60s. Cloud cover will be increasing through the day tomorrow ahead of an approaching trough over the Central Plains. Warm temperatures expected again tomorrow as west-southwesterly to southerly flow further establishes downstream of the trough.
230 PM EDT Mon May 31 2021 High pressure will settle over the region for the next couple of days and this will result in fair and seasonable conditions through Tuesday.
353 PM EDT Mon May 31 2021 High pressure builds over the region tonight, then moves off the mid Atlantic coast on Tuesday.
At the surface, weak ridging continues to extend west across the area from a high pressure area that is centered just off the mid Atlantic seaboard tonight, but shifts just offshore over the northern Gulf on Tuesday. Lows tonight should be slightly warmer than past several night, ranging from the upper 50s to around 60 over our inland southeast MS and southwest AL counties west of I- 65, with low to mid 60s elsewhere across the region. The exception will be along the immediate coast, where sea breeze effects will likely result in max temperatures only reaching the low to mid 80s.
(This evening through Tuesday) At this hour, a line of rain and thunderstorms was located along a cold front as it slowly moved southward. In addition, the cold front will sink further south into the Hill Country, which should provide plenty of lift for showers and thunderstorms.
Moisture will slowly be on the increase as we pull in relatively moister air from the Atlantic, especially compared to the dry, cooler airmass that has been in place.
Peak heating is expected this Memorial Day as high pressure builds inland over California. With the ridge axis building into Northern California, the hottest temperatures are likely to remain confined to the interior North Bay and East Bay where a Heat Advisory remains in effect through 9 PM this evening. Above average temperatures look to persist through much of the week as high pressure aloft gradually weakens. Ensemble guidance suggests troughing developing over the Pacific Northwest and down into Northern California by late week.
Aloft, a positively-tilted longwave trough will slowly shift eastward across the Rocky Mountains into the Great Plains by the middle of the week, steering multiple embedded disturbances through the area with southwesterly flow. Temperatures will remain near or just below average for this time of the year with lows in the middle to upper 60s and highs in the lower 80s. Thickening cloud cover and precipitation will initially moderate the diurnal curve before slightly cooler air arrives by Tuesday night.
140 PM CDT Mon May 31 2021 High pressure over south central North Dakota is resulting in full solar and fairly light winds this morning, with warmest temperatures in the upper 50s breaking into the low 60s. Today: Mid level trough continues to transition east of our CWA early this morning, with a few weak showers (isolated lighting activity) over the Lake of the Woods area closer to mid level circulation on WV imagery over north central MN. This upper level ridging will advect a warm, dry air mass into the region and in conjunction with strong WAA at the surface will result in temperatures rapidly climbing up to well above normal.
The forecast remains challenging over the next couple days as the upper trough cuts off from 500 mb and above by Tuesday over the northern Bahamas. Backing winds thorugh 10K feet may allow outflow-driven thunderstorms into the Gulf waters or even some interaction with the lower Keys cloud lines each day and evening.
Generally dry conditons are expected on Tuesday as the trough axis gradually moves to the east with northerly surface winds in its wake. A few showers may occur across northern Oklahoma in proximity of the trough and across the southeast Oklahoma as rain exits, but overall convective coverage appears limited.
228 PM EDT Mon May 31 2021 High pressure will build overhead tonight and move offshore Tuesday. An upper level trough will pass through the area at the end of the week. High pressure will build overhead tonight. Warmer with highs near 80 with humidity levels still at comfortable levels. Moisture and instability increase further on Wed with scattered mainly afternoon showers and t-storms mainly west of the Blue Ridge as an upper level trough inches closer to the area.
1123 AM MDT Mon May 31 2021 Current surface map places weak high pressure across the Dakotas. Upper ridge is building across the western CONUS, resulting in northwest flow across the Northern Plains.
Meanwhile, a cold front along the IA/MN border had triggered isolated showers and storms. Lows in the lower 50s. Tuesday should see slightly warmer temperatures than today with highs in the mid to upper 80s.