Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
639 AM CST THU JAN 28 2016 Satellite and radar show mid clouds and a possibly few sprinkles across Indiana into much of southern Illinois and southern Missouri, associated with a weak cold front. Winds will shift to the northwest this afternoon, but with no significantly cooler air right behind the front and plenty of sunshine, we will still see milder temperatures than yesterday. A weak ridge of high pressure will slide across our area tonight into Friday. Winds will shift back to the south on Friday as the ridge moves east of the PAH forecast area.
958 AM EST THU JAN 28 2016 SNOW SHOWER CHANCES RETURN WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT TODAY. WARMER TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES WERE INCREASED WELL ABOVE GUIDANCE INTO THE LOWER 40S FOR MANY AREAS. A BETTER CHC FOR SNOW SHOWERS IS EXPECTED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT THIS EVE. COLD UPR TROFG. MARGINAL LLVL LAPSE RATES AND TROF PROGRESSION ARE EXPECTED TO LIMIT ACCUMULATION TO AROUND A COUPLE OF INCHES FOR AREAS ALNG AND N OF I 80 AND IN THE RIDGES. SNOW SHOWERS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH AS THE TROF EXITS AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ON FRI AFTN.
734 AM EST THU JAN 28 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA TODAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXIT TO THE EAST THIS MORNING. WITH LOW PRESSURE STARTING TO APPROACH WESTERN NEW ENGLAND FROM THE GREAT LAKES LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THE LOW APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN TONIGHT WHILE AN OCEAN LOW INTENSIFIES SOUTHEAST OF THE GULF OF MAINE. WITH A TROF DEVELOPING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND BETWEEN THE LOWS. INTENSE LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY AS ANOTHER LOW APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES.
1010 AM EST THU JAN 28 2016 MOISTURE WILL REMAIN HIGH ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OVER THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL. MOISTURE WILL REMAIN HIGH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AND COASTAL FRONT. THE RAIN WAS MAINLY BEING SUPPORTED BY THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND JET.
UPPER LOW TRACKING EWD ACROSS WRN SD THIS EVENING. THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER FAR SOUTHWEST SK. WITH WARM FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHEAST INTO WESTERN SD. COLD FRONT EXTENDS SOUTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN MT INTO NORTHEAST WY. THE FREEZING LINE RIGHT NOW EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN HARDING COUNTY TO NEAR FAITH AND THEN SOUTH INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SD. PCPN OVER FAR NORTHWEST SD INTO NORTH CENTRAL SD IS LIKELY FALLING IN THE FORM OF FREEZING RAIN AND POSSIBLY SOME SNOW. WINDS WITH THE FRONT SHOULD DIMINISH AS THE FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE BLACK HILLS INTO COOLER AND MORE STABLE AIR TO THE EAST. RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED OVER MOST OF THE CWA AS WARM FRONT MOVES EAST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW IS STILL POSSIBLE WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS.
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE NEAR FREEZING ACROSS THE FAR NORTH AT MID-MORNING WHEN THIS MOISTURE APPROACHES. RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE IN THE NORTHWEST/WEST SUNDAY NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT DEVELOPS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA AND A LOW-LEVEL JET DEVELOPS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
EXPECT HIGHS TOMORROW ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS TO BE IN THE 40S ACROSS EL PASO COUNTY.
A WARM FRONT IS BRINGING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION OVER WASHINGTON AND NORTHERN OREGON THIS EVENING. MAINLY ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE WA CASCADES AND EAST OF THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN. PRECIPITATION IS LIGHT OVER MOST OF THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN AND DOWN TOWARD THE COLUMBIA DESCHUTES PLATEAU WHERE RAIN SHADOWING IS TAKING PLACE EAST OF THE CASCADE RANGE. DUE TO A WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PROVIDING RAIN SHADOWING OFF THE CASCADE RANGE AND A FLAT HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER SOUTHERN OREGON.
WHILE ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SHIFTING EAST OF THE AREA THIS MORNING. SOUTHEAST FLOW BACK OFF THIS HIGH.
322 AM EST SUN FEB 14 2016 A PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TODAY WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST TONIGHT WITH A WARM FRONT DEVELOPING SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY OF HOW FAST THE ABOVE FREEZING TEMPS MOVE IN.
1105 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016 SOUTH WINDS WILL VEER TOWARD WEST THEN NORTH AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTH PLAINS AREA SUNDAY MORNING. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FCST AREA AROUND SUNRISE SUNDAY WITH NORTH WINDS AT OR JUST ABOVE 12 KTS THROUGH INTO EARLY AFTN. SURFACE WINDS HAVE ALREADY VEERED TO A MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION IN RESPONSE TO A LEE TROF. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER UNTIL THEY ARE NORTHERLY LATER TONIGHT INTO LATE TOMORROW MORNING AS THE TROF PUSHES THROUGH AS A WEAK FRONT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO BE ON AVERAGE 10 DEGREES COOLER TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
339 AM EST SUN FEB 14 2016 ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE THE REGION WITH DRY CONDITIONS.
1138 PM EST SAT FEB 13 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE INTO THE REGION FROM THE MIDWEST TONIGHT. AS THE HIGH PASSES BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON IT WILL ALLOW A WEAKENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.
403 AM EST SUN FEB 14 2016 COLD FRONT HAS MOVED WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT, WITH N/NE WINDS FILLING IN ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA BEHIND THE FRONT. COLDEST TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING NORTH AND WEST OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE WITH A TIGHT TEMPERATURE GRADIENT BETWEEN LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND THE ATLANTIC COAST WHERE A SLIGHT ONSHORE COMPONENT IS KEEPING TEMPERATURES IN THE PALM BEACHES IN THE LOWER 60S. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER THAN YESTERDAY WITH A STEADY NORTHEAST BREEZE AND LESS SUNSHINE THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS.
315 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2016 SKIES ARE CLOUDY OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 20S TO THE LOWER 30S. THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHEAST TODAY INTO NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS BY THIS EVENING. AHEAD OF THIS LOW WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY WHICH WILL BRING MOISTURE NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF. WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW FREEZING IN NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED. 1 INCH OF FREEZING RAIN. BY TONIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES EAST INTO SOUTHERN ARKANSAS PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE OVER TO RAIN IN THE AREAS THAT WILL BE EXPERIENCING WINTER PRECIPITATION TODAY.
By late tonight precipitation chances will increase but due to a bulge of warm air in the lower levels a mix of freezing rain/sleet will begin moving into far western sections of southeast Missouri. Snowfall is expected to increase through the morning hours over the northeast two thirds of the CWA while the mixture of freezing rain/sleet will migrate farther east into far western Kentucky. Snowfall should begin to slowly taper off from west to east in the afternoon but the freezing rain/sleet mixture will push farther east. Sunday night a rain/freezing rain mixture over the entire area should transition to all rain except over portions of southeast Illinois and southwest Indiana. Ice accumulations should be light and generally limited to the southwest half of the CWA, but could cause problems on elevated surfaces such as bridges and overpasses.
316 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2016 MAIN CHALLENGE IS WHETHER ANY LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL DEVELOP THIS MORNING ACROSS THE FLINT HILLS AND PARTS OF SOUTHEAST KANSAS. WHILE LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING UPPER TROF HAS MANIFEST THE RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS CIGS. THE WINDOW TO SUFFICIENTLY SATURATE THE NEAR SURFACE LAYER TO PROMOTE THE LIGHT DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE IS NARROWING IN SPACE AND TIME.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES RIDGES SOUTH OVER THE AREA PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER FOR TONIGHT AND ON SUNDAY. INTERACTION BETWEEN A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH IS PRODUCING GUSTY NORTH NORTHEAST WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.
The latter area should continue to expand into west central and into central Missouri through the morning, where forecast soundings suggest a mix of sleet and snow, and possibly light freezing rain or freezing drizzle as well. However, if freezing rain/drizzle starts to dominate then a winter weather advisory may need to be expanded into areas near and south of US 50.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS 2 SHORT WAVE TROUGHS. THE FIRST WAVE HAS INITIATED LEE TROUGHING WHICH HAS INCREASED SOUTHERLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW FROM THE GULF.
341 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2016 COLD FRONT IN THE NORTHERN TX PANHANDLE AT 3 AM REMAINS ON TRACK TO EXIT THE CWA BY MID/LATE MORNING. THE PARENT TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS FRONT SUPPORTED AN IMPRESSIVE DISPLAY OF THUNDERSNOW. OUR WEATHER FALLS WELL SHORT OF THAT GRANDEUR AS DRY SURFACE RIDGING WILL ONLY AMPLIFY THROUGH THE DAY AND LINGER TONIGHT.
1210 AM EST SUN FEB 14 2016 ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE THE REGION WITH DRY CONDITIONS.
ALTHOUGH BISMARCK RADAR INDICATING AN AREA OF FREEZING DRIZZLE IS FOLLOWING CLOSE BEHIND SNOWFALL. AND A WEAK WAVE MOVING OVERTOP THE RIDGE.
LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE SHOWING GOOD AGREEMENT THE 800/500HPA TROUGH HOLDS OFF ON MOVING INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA UNTIL SUNDAY MORNING. AS THE RIDGE GRADUALLY SHIFTS EAST THIS EVENING. THE LOWEST TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE IRON RANGE AND OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN.
1022 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TAF SITES OVERNIGHT WITH NORTH WINDS IN THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE WITH HIGHER GUSTS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT WHICH WILL MAKE THE WINDS GUSTY AGAIN FROM THE NORTH. BROAD NW FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY AS UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE WEATHER. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND NORTH WINDS IN ITS WAKE.
THINK IT IS BEST TO KEEP 20% POPS IN TODAY'S FORECAST WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S. LOW RAIN CHANCES REMAIN IN THE FORECAST INTO TONIGHT AND TOMORROW WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER NUMBERS ACROSS PARTS OF OUR NORTH AND NORTHEAST COUNTIES WHERE SOME DEEPER MOISTURE LEVELS AND BETTER LIFT WILL BE FOUND AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE AREA.
WILL SEE THIS DISTURBANCE SLIDE BETWEEN THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
ONLY CHANGES WERE WITH STRONG WAA AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT SUNDAY AFTERNOON WAS TO BRING CIGS INTO VFR BY MIDDAY AND SEE OFF AND ON VFR CIGS THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. BUT WANE WITH THE APPROACH OF THE COLD FRONT LATER SUNDAY. THE BEST LARGE SCALE LIFT WILL RESIDE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST ZONES SO WILL KEEP THE HIGHEST POPS GENERALLY EAST OF INTERSTATE 35 AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20.
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO THE LOWER LEVELS TODAY AND TONIGHT.
1218 AM EST SUN FEB 14 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE INTO THE REGION FROM THE MIDWEST TONIGHT. AS THE HIGH PASSES BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON IT WILL ALLOW A WEAKENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.
Then, another cold front will begin to move across West Central Texas tomorrow afternoon. Dewpoints are expected to eventually rise into the lower 50s for the southern 2/3 of the area by late tonight. This will result in warmer overnight temperatures and lows in the 40s to lower 50s.
with temperatures warming above freezing by early afternoon.
A COLD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U. WILL MOVE ON TO THE EAST AND A BROAD UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD IN OVER MUCH OF THE U.
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
A MUCH BREEZIER DAY EXPECTED SUNDAY AS GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN STRONG HI PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. MID LEVEL RIDGE GRADUALLY DRIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE GULF WHILE SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVES ACROSS THE EASTERN ROCKIES. LEE SIDE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL STRENGTHEN INTERACTING WITH BROAD 1036 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EAST.
341 AM EST SUN FEB 14 2016 ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE THE REGION WITH DRY CONDITIONS.
/ISSUED 225 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016/ CURRENT SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY RIDGING SWD WHICH IS ALLOWING A RETURN FLOW TO SET UP OVER THE WRN GULF REGION. WITH MINS LIKELY CLOSER TO MIDNIGHT THEN INCHING UPWARD AS WARMER GULF AIR SPREADS EWD.
1155 PM EST SAT FEB 13 2016 AVIATION THE ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT HAS BROUGHT OUR COLDEST WEATHER OF THE MONTH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE STATE OF MICHIGAN TONIGHT. THE NEXT SYSTEM TO BRING SNOW TO THE AREA IS FOR THE MOST PART A WARM FRONT TYPE SYSTEM.
WARM AND MOIST AIR WILL BE STREAMING IN OVER THE COOLER RESIDENT AIRMASS ACROSS THE GREAT VALLEY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN STATES INTO THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK.
Best chances for freezing rain/drizzle across nwrn AR sites. The main threat for light freezing rain, and maybe eventually light freezing drizzle, will be in the deepest valleys of far northwest Arkansas, especially in parts of Carroll, Madison, and Franklin Counties.
COURTESY OF A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVING EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL STATES/OHIO VALLEY TO THE ATLANTIC COAST. A PREDOMINATE TROUGH WEST AND RIDGE EAST PATTERN WAS BREAKING DOWN SOMEWHAT IN COMPARISON TO HOW IT APPEARED YESTERDAY. ITS EASTERN CANADIAN UPPER LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR THE TROUGH HAS MOVED FURTHER TO THE NORTH AND EAST. A DISTURBANCE IN THE POLAR FLOW HAS FLATTENED THE RIDGE. THE DISTURBANCE THAT WEAKENED THE RIDGE WAS MOVING EAST OF THE CO/WY ROCKIES. MAINLY A RAIN/FREEZING RAIN MIX. WINDS BECOMING SOUTHERLY AND A WARMER TEMPERATURE PATTERN SHOULD RESULT IN THE PRECIP BECOMING ALL RAIN EARLY SUN AFTERNOON.
BRIEF MVFR/IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA NEAR THE COLD FRONT 08-16Z. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH AT ALL SITES.
The main story for tonight into early tomorrow will be the threat of a light wintry mix and freezing drizzle. The freezing line will settle somewhere near the Missouri and Kansas border tonight before it begins to retreat eastward during the morning hours. Freezing drizzle and some light sleet is expected across the western half of the area and a wintry mix with some light snow is expected across the eastern half of the area early on. it does not take much freezing drizzle to cause big travel problems in the Ozarks region. A dusting of light sleet or light snow can be expected east of Highway 65 with up to an inch of snow possible from the Highway 63 corridor and eastward. Most area will warm up above freezing by Sunday afternoon with some areas out across far western Missouri near 50.
Meanwhile, an attendant cold front is projected to push southeast through western Kansas early Sunday morning. However, a less than robust flow aloft combined with much drier air in the lower/mid levels will keep conditions fairly dry through Sunday afternoon. As for temperatures tonight, a prevailing low level southerly flow will help erode the colder air mass across the high plains before a cold front begins to push into western Kansas early Sunday morning. For Sunday, highs may struggle to reach the 50s(F) near the I-70 corridor as cooler air filters southward into western Kansas during the day. Dry conditions will persist across western Kansas through much of the period as medium range models indicate a prevailing northwesterly flow aloft early in the period giving way to upper level ridging moving out of the Rockies by mid week.
AS EAST TO SE WINDS PICKING UP IN RESPONSE TO A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH ACROSS EAST TX.
418 AM EST SUN FEB 14 2016 A PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TODAY WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST TONIGHT WITH A WARM FRONT DEVELOPING SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
316 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2016 Cold front moving through the area early this morning bumping winds briefly behind the boundary to gusts in the 20 knots range locally. The models are a few degrees warmer than most MOS solutions.
358 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2016 A MILD COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS OKLAHOMA TODAY BRINGING LITTLE IN THE WAY OF COLD AIR. WHEN THIS FRONT AND A WEAK UPPER TROUGH PASS OVER SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON, THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT RAIN.
440 AM EST SUN FEB 14 2016 A PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TODAY WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST TONIGHT WITH A WARM FRONT DEVELOPING SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
FREEZING FOG IS WANING AS TEMPERATURES WARM SLIGHTLY AND WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 10 TO 20 MPH. A LEE TROUGH IS LOCATED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL COLORADO AND NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO. ANOTHER BOUT OF FREEZING FOG IS POSSIBLE. ADDED PATCHY FREEZING FOG TO THE FORECAST FOR THIS EVENING. ANTICIPATING WARMER TEMPERATURES.
A LARGE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION.
1017 PM EDT THU JUL 16 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT SLOWLY TO THE EAST AND KEEP OUR WEATHER FAIR AND DRY THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY. SOME THIN CIRRUS CLOUDS ARE TRYING TO TOP THE RIDGE TO OUR WEST. LOWS WILL BE SOME 5-10 DEG WARMER THAN THIS MORNING THANKS TO DEWPOINTS THAT ARE GRADUALLY CREEPING HIGHER. TEMPS WILL GET BACK TO SEASONAL NORMALS ON FRIDAY AFTER A SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL START TO THE DAY THANKS TO THE VERY LIGHT SRLY WIND.
THE UPPER RIDGE IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AND PUSH SLIGHTLY EASTWARD. THE LOW/MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL ALSO BEGIN LIFTING NORTHWARD. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER GEORGIA IS FORECAST TO SLIDE SLOWLY WESTWARD ON FRIDAY AS WELL.
The synoptic pattern this afternoon features zonal to slight northwest flow aloft over the Ohio Valley, which will slowly transition to more ridging aloft by Friday. Surface ridging will slowly side northeast tonight, allowing for weak return flow to commence towards dawn Friday. Dewpoints will rise back into the low to mid 70s. High temperatures will top out in the low to mid 90s, with the highest heat expected across the southwestern CWA.
UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHEAST ALBERTA CONTINUES TO PUSH SLOWLY SOUTH AND EAST. CIRCULATION AROUND THE LOW CONTINUES TO GENERATE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE HI-LINE AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO THROUGH 07Z. COOL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED OVERNIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE.
AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION DRIFTS EWD. RSB /ISSUED 331 PM CDT THU JUL 16 2015/ SATELLITE AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS THIS AFTERNOON SHOW THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS LOCATED OVER THE ARKLATEX REGION. A PSEUDO COLD FRONT/STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS TO OUR W/SW AND WITH SURFACE WINDS OUT OF THE N/NE.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL EXTEND INTO CENTRAL NC TONIGHT AND THEN DRIFT EAST FRIDAY. FLOW WILL BE VERY WEAK BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT AS THE STATE REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE DEEP SOUTH. ALL THIS ADDS UP TO A FAIRLY GOOD CONFIDENCE OF A DRY FORECAST A LITTLE WARMER THAN TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. WE INITIALLY WILL BE UNDER THE NORTHEAST PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE LOWER MIDWEST.
1147 PM CDT THU JUL 16 2015 UPDATED AVIATION SECTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE UPPER HIGH PRESSURE DOME WILL BE MAIN SHORT TERM WEATHER INFLUENCE.
/ISSUED 345 PM EDT THU JUL 16 2015/ RAIN CHANCES RELATIVELY LIMITED THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH DRY AIR SETTLING OVER THE STATE AND THE UPPER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE FROM THE WEST. WITH HIGHS FRIDAY EXPECTED TO CLIMB BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S.
1226 AM EDT FRI JUL 17 2015 HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY SLIDES OFFSHORE THROUGH FRIDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FRIDAY NIGHT.
613 PM CDT THU JUL 16 2015 WESTERLY FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS WILL BACK TO THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS NORTHEAST OVER THE HIGH PLAINS INTO CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. OTHERWISE BRIEF TRANSITORY RIDGING WILL BUILD ATOP THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON FRIDAY. THE EXCEPTION BEING NORTHWEST NEBRASKA WHERE A FRONT WILL KEEP T/S IN THE LOWER 90S. FORECAST CHALLENGE IS POPS AS THE CLOSED UPPER HIGH CENTER REMAINS ANCHORED OVER EASTERN TEXAS AND LINGERS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD.
901 PM EDT THU JUL 16 2015 HIGH PRESSURE IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE FL STRAITS WITH A STALLED BOUNDARY ACROSS THE SE US TO THE NORTH.
WV IMAGERY AND 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATE A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE ARK-LA-TEX REGION. NEAR THE SURFACE, A LEE SIDE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS DEVELOPING NEAR AND ALONG THE KANSAS AND COLORADO BORDER. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THIS TROUGH LINE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT BECOME LIGHT SOUTH AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE TROUGH SHIFTS BACK NORTHWARD. FOR FRIDAY, A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS IN EASTERN COLORADO WITH INCREASING SOUTH WINDS INTO WESTERN KANSAS OF 15 TO 25 MPH.
739 PM EDT THU JUL 16 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER INTO FRIDAY MORNING, KEEPING IT DRY AND QUIET. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER UPSTATE NY WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST INTO NEW ENGLAND THE NEXT 12 HOURS. FRI AFTERNOON WITH WARM MOIST AIR COMING IN AHEAD OF A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROF AND SHORT WAVE, AND A SURFACE BOUNDARY.
THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF AN UPPER RIDGE OVERNIGHT WHILE AT THE SURFACE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S. THE GFS AND ECMWF DISPLAY THE UPPER RIDGING SHIFTING FARTHER WEST OVER THE WEEKEND.
635 PM CDT THU JUL 16 2015 FOR 00Z TAFS /ISSUED 331 PM CDT THU JUL 16 2015/ SATELLITE AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS THIS AFTERNOON SHOW THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS LOCATED OVER THE ARKLATEX REGION. A PSEUDO COLD FRONT/STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS TO OUR W/SW AND WITH SURFACE WINDS OUT OF THE N/NE.
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES LOW OVER CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN WITH COLD FRONT DROPPING TO THE SOUTH. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES SHORT WAVE SLIDING THROUGH THE DAKOTAS WITH UPPER LOW OVER WESTERN ALBERTA. WEAK RIDGING PASSES OVER THE AREA BEHIND THE SHORT WAVE TO BRING A BRIEF QUIET PERIOD. UPPER LOW WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN. UPPER FLOW SHIFTS SOUTHWESTERLY WHILE THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WORKS INTO WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA. UPPER LOW SETTLES SOUTHEAST THROUGH SASKATCHEWAN BRINGING BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW TO OUR AREA AS COLD FRONT CONTINUES ITS PROGRESSION. ONLY AREA WITH POTENTIAL SEVERE CONCERNS WILL AGAIN BE OVER THE LOWER JAMES RIVER VALLEY WHERE MODEST INSTABILITY/SHEAR ARE NOTED. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTABLY COOLER.
713 PM EDT THU JUL 16 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT SLOWLY TO THE EAST AND KEEP OUR WEATHER FAIR AND DRY THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY. SOME CIRRUS CLOUDS ARE TRYING TO TOP THE RIDGE TO OUR WEST. LOWS WILL BE SOME 5-10 DEG WARMER THAN THIS MORNING THANKS TO DEWPOINTS THAT ARE GRADUALLY CREEPING HIGHER. TEMPS WILL GET BACK TO SEASONAL NORMALS ON FRIDAY AFTER A SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL START TO THE DAY THANKS TO THE VERY LIGHT SRLY WIND.
TENDING EAST TO SOUTHEAST ON THE FLORIDA STRAITS DUE TO A RATHER FLAT PRESSURE PATTERN AND A RIDGE AXIS RUNNING ACROSS THE AREA. THIS IS ALSO THE LOWEST TEMPERATURE EVER RECORDED IN JULY.
/ISSUED 303 PM CDT THU JUL 16 2015/ 12Z ANALYSIS AND WATER VAPOR SHOWS OUR REGION ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-UPPER RIDGE WITH A DISTINCT MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME ACROSS THE AREA.
814 PM EDT THU JUL 16 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER INTO FRIDAY MORNING, KEEPING IT DRY AND QUIET. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER UPSTATE NY WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST INTO NEW ENGLAND THE NEXT 12 HOURS. FRI AFTERNOON WITH WARM MOIST AIR COMING IN AHEAD OF A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROF AND SHORT WAVE, AND A SURFACE BOUNDARY.
HIGH PRESSURE KEPT SKIES MOSTLY SUNNY AGAIN TODAY AND THIS EVENING.
729 PM CDT THU JUL 16 2015 UPPER RIDGE HAS STRENGTHENED ACROSS OUR AREA WHICH WILL KEEP MCS'S WELL NORTH OF MY CWA NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. WARM FRONT DRAPED FROM NORTHERN ALABAMA UP THROUGH FAR WESTERN TENNESSEE THEN NORTHWARD TO MINNESOTA WILL UNDERGO FRONTOLYSIS ON SOUTH END NEXT 24 HOURS.
UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHEAST ALBERTA CONTINUES TO PUSH SLOWLY SOUTH AND EAST. CIRCULATION AROUND THE LOW CONTINUES TO GENERATE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE HI-LINE AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO THROUGH 07Z. COOL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED OVERNIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE. UPPER DISTURBANCE OVER SOUTHERN ALBERTA HAS PUSHED A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND IT CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA.