Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Height rises have been noted aloft today as a mid- level ridge centered over Mexico nudged northward. Looking elsewhere, an amplified mid-level trough is located along the Pacific Northwest coastline. Sensible conditions continue to reveal the warm and humid tropical air mass in place across the region today with afternoon obs showing temps in the low 90s and dew points near 70 degrees in most locations. Under the influence of the ridge aloft, low and mid-level temperatures and associated thickness values look to increase slightly. As messaged in previous forecast packages, concern continues regarding the maximum heat index during afternoon hours late this week given the warmer temps and continued high moisture content of our air mass. Models continue to show a wave of energy associated with the aforementioned Pacific Northwest trough will move across Montana and into south- central portions of Canada.
An upper ridge extends around the upper trof, from the Plains to across the northern Gulf and on to just off the coast of the Carolinas. A region of drier air seen best in the 850-700 mb layer, likely a result of subsidence associated with the upper ridge, currently extends over the north central Gulf into the western Florida panhandle, south central Alabama and also into southeast Alabama. Lows tonight range from the lower 70s inland to the mid 70s at the coast.
Brownsville may see less duration of the low clouds and more scattering pre-dawn, but overall broken conditions fits best for now.
The upper-level pattern is unusual for this time of year with an impressively amplified longwave trough over the West Coast and an equally stout ridge over the central CONUS. Timing-wise, the attendant cold front moves through western Wyoming during the mid afternoon before eventually impacting the central portion of the state late afternoon through the evening.
353 PM EDT Wed Jun 9 2021 A cool ridge of high pressure will build in tonight and tomorrow behind a passing cold front.
As the cold front moves through in the early morning hours tomorrow, colder air will be spilling in behind it. Afternoon temperatures are forecast to be around 15F degrees cooler than normal. As the clouds clear and winds diminish overnight Thursday night, temperatures will be allowed to lower into the low to mid 30s across many valleys in the Northern Rockies.
307 PM EDT Wed Jun 9 2021 A weak cold front dropping south this afternoon will trigger isolated to scattered showers and storms through this evening.
417 PM EDT Wed Jun 9 2021 A weak cold front dropping south this afternoon will trigger isolated to scattered showers and storms through this evening.
With the upper low still drifting across our high PW environ. NAEFS suggests 99th percentile PW's in the low 2's, with standard deviations 2+ above the norm. This correlates to our Marginal to Slight risk Excessive Rain Outlook for today, which has/will shift east slowly with time coincident to the Low's drift.
Clouds are streaming north in advance of an approaching upper level trough, with most of the clouds over eastern Oregon and the West Central Mountains as of 9:50 am MDT. Winds will increase this evening in advance of a cold front associated with the upper low, with gusts to 40 mph possible. NW winds increasing to 15 to 25 kt with gusts 25 to 40 kt across the Snake River Valley after 03Z/Thu along a cold front.
Meanwhile, the apex of an upper-level ridge is forecast to shift over MN Thursday afternoon.
1222 PM CDT Wed Jun 9 2021 (Today and tonight) The oppressive heat of summer has arrived in West Central Texas, thanks to a 594dam ridge at the 500mb level. This ridge, which is currently over northern Mexico and the Big Bend region, will strengthen and expand northeastward today. Temperatures at 850mb will be 2-3 deg C warmer than yesterday, or about 21-24 deg C across the area. This, combined with the lack of convective debris that has occurred the past two mornings, should translate to surface temperatures about 5-7 degrees warmer than yesterday.
High temperatures will be similar, if not a degree or so warmer than yesterday, with upper 80s in the west, to lower 80s in the east. The upper ridge builds in a little more Thursday and expecting even less coverage of precip.
Outside of immediate relief from rain, it will be toasty with highs in the low to mid 90s and 'feels-like' temperatures in the upper 90s everywhere and near 100 degrees south of I-10.
High pressure across the region with east to southeasterly winds will continue to prevail. Some drier air in the low to mid levels has allowed for overall limited rain chances across South Florida.
207 PM EDT Wed Jun 9 2021 An upper level ridge over the Southeast coast will slowly give way to an approaching trough from the Ohio Valley through late week.
This stratiform rain could also be enough to preclude freezing temperatures for East Side Valleys once again (although Beatty did drop to freezing temperatures this morning for a little while), will need to evaluate this more to determine if a freeze watch or warning is needed for tonight. As an upper trough continues offshore southerly ridge level winds continue to feed warm and moist air into the region at lower levels while the upper trough pattern continues to feed cooler air aloft, resulting in increasing instability through the day. The area of instability moves mostly to the east side later this evening as the upper trough axis shifts over the region. A brief weak upper ridge then builds over the region Thursday, but then shifts quickly east ahead of a front that brings precipitation to the coast by late Thursday evening.
254 PM CDT Wed Jun 9 2021 A nearly stationary broad upper low is centered over IL/IN this afternoon. One of these has a weak surface reflection - a trough axis roughly from Evansville to near St. Patchy fog looks possible after midnight as the region sits in broad low level troughing and light ambient winds - with dewpoints in the 70s. Thursday another weak upper low approaches and will likely spark another round of showers and isolated thunderstorms in the afternoon. Lapse rates steepen slightly as the trough approaches but cloud coverage should still mostly limit instability and pulse severe storm chances. Although forcing from the trough will probably increase coverage across the eastern half of the area in the afternoon.
High pressure dropping south through Ontario has strengthened the dry easterly flow into the region. The driving upper low over Ohio has also weakened with the bulk of the forcing contracting to our south now. A wave will then crest the upper level ridge Thursday which will flatten it a bit while a vort min ribbon slides down through the state. high pressure will remain off to the northeast with continued dry easterly flow into southern MI.
Models do show another round of showers and thunderstorms moving into the area after midnight tonight, as the upper level trough axis pushes further east- southeast.
Weather pattern will remain quiet and rain free through the short term as the region remains under the influence of a mid-level ridge centered across northern Mexico into west Texas. Thursday trends similar to today with high temperatures rising up into the lower to mid 90s for the majority and in excess of 100 degrees along the Rio Grande and for the Winter Garden region as clouds decrease into the afternoon with skies eventually becoming mostly sunny. Even though the heat index values will likely still be around the 100 to 105 degree range for many, the lower dew points should help step away from the heat indices that have neared the heat advisory criteria over the last several afternoons.
With the large scale ridge overhead tonight through tomorrow weather concerns will be primarily limited to very slight chances for diurnal daytime convection. A weak low pressure region will continue to keep light easterly surface winds across the region mostly keeping areas near the lake cooler with the lake breeze but the lake breeze may also be a source for additional lift in the afternoon as an area of focus for showers/storms.
1135 AM MDT Wed Jun 9 2021 Northern plains remains in southwest flow, with the persistent upper trough over the west coast. At the surface, low pressure is moving from southeastern MT to southwestern ND. Generally quiet weather can be expected today, beneath the upper ridge axis. West coast trough will approach the northern plains through the day, reaching the northern Rockies by evening. At the surface, deepening low pressure over southeastern MT will result in breezy southerly winds across the CWA, advecting hot, moist air into the western SD plains behind the warm front to our north. Upper-level support doesn't arrive until early evening, with storms expected to fire along the cold front near the SD/WY border by 00Z or so.
240 PM CDT Wed Jun 9 2021 This afternoon will be very hot over much of the area as the subtropical ridge builds over northern Mexico. Moisture this morning was very high with dewpoints in the low 70s, but this moisture is shallow and will mix out this afternoon due to drier air just above the surface. HRRR guidance has little in the way of storms outside of the higher terrain as it mixes the dryline east of MAF. With ridging in place, ascent will be limited to the dryline and higher terrain for thunderstorm development.
/issued 240 PM CDT Wed Jun 9 2021/ This afternoon will be very hot over much of the area as the subtropical ridge builds over northern Mexico. Moisture this morning was very high with dewpoints in the low 70s, but this moisture is shallow and will mix out this afternoon due to drier air just above the surface. HRRR guidance has little in the way of storms outside of the higher terrain as it mixes the dryline east of MAF. With ridging in place, ascent will be limited to the dryline and higher terrain for thunderstorm development.
We then turn up the heat on Thursday ahead of the cold front with everyone reaching highs in the lower to middle 90s and heat index values around 100F. A cold front will swing through late Thursday night with thunderstorms developing from north to south along the front.
1047 PM EDT Wed Jun 9 2021 Cold front will complete its journey across the region tonight. For the most part, a dry, cooler and less humid day in store on Thursday though an isolated shower or thunderstorm could pop-up in the afternoon along the NY/PA state line.
No precipitation is expected overnight with mostly clear to partly cloudy skies and lows in the lower 70s. SE winds 10-15 knots will diminish to 5-10 knots, veering S by daybreak as the ridge axis begins to shift southward.
PWATs hover just under 2 inches and freezing levels remain respectably high at around 14 kft.
222 PM PDT Wed Jun 9 2021 Cooler than average temperatures with breezy conditions will persist through Thursday.
410 PM CDT Wed Jun 9 2021 This afternoon a boundary was positioned from northwest to southeast across Northeast Oklahoma into Northwest Arkansas on the northeastern periphery of a building ridge expanding into the region. The highly unstable conditions will warrant a limited severe potential through this evening with large hail and locally damaging winds being the main threats. additional shower and thunderstorm chances will continue to be possible with the CWA on the northeastern periphery of the ridge. the boundary over the region today should shift northeast as the ridge continues to expand over the region. A limited severe potential may be possible as well Thursday afternoon as warmer temps and humid conditions combine with large amounts of instability over the CWA. With the ridge overhead and a capped atmosphere.
Deep troughing has set up over the west coast and the trough axis is approaching the Monterey Bay area this afternoon. This trough axis will continue to push ENE this evening into the early part of the overnight. This trough will also bring another cool day to the region and we should see daytime highs similar to yesterday. Breezy onshore winds gusting 15-30 mph will diminish this evening as the trough pushes overhead. The trough axis will be pushing to the east tomorrow and more zonal flow will developing over NorCal as troughing continues over the Gulf of Alaska.
Mostly sunny skies across the region today, as temps have warmed into the 80s for the high valleys, and mid 80s to lower 90s across the plains. Very similar pattern set-up for tomorrow as compared to today, with a low pressure system over the Pacific NW and a large upper ridge of high pressure centered over the southern US. Overnight lows tonight will remain mild, with readings in the 40s to around 50F for the high valleys, and mid 50s to mid 60s for the plains. High temps tomorrow will warm into the 80s to around 90F for the high valleys, and 90s to around 100F for the plains.
Moist southwest flow aloft around weak upper low to the north and northwest of the area will continue overnight and intensity of activity should decrease before picking up again in the morning.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are also expected over central areas later Thursday afternoon into the evening, but instability will be lower in this area due to drier air in the lower levels, so the severe threat is less (though not zero) in this area. The low will also draw in dry air from the southwest into the area Thursday afternoon, which combined with hot temperatures will produce relative humidity in the teens. Because of the possible strong winds, have continued the High Wind Watch from Thursday afternoon into Thursday night. In addition, because of the combination of hot temperatures (highs in the 90s), winds, dry air, and the cold front, have upgraded the Fire Weather Watch to a Red Flag Warning from 10 AM MDT to 10 PM MDT Thursday.
As of 8 PM MDT conditions were quiet in our CWA but cloud cover was increasing rapidly over eastern Oregon due to a deep upper trough along the coast. Snow will accumulate a couple inches in the Idaho mountains above 6000 feet MST as the upper trough comes in. An upper level trough will cross southeast Oregon and southwest Idaho from the west tonight and Thursday morning, with widespread showers, isolated thunderstorms, and areas of MVFR conditions and mountain obscuration.
640 PM CDT Wed Jun 9 2021 A nearly stationary broad upper low is centered over IL/IN this afternoon. One of these has a weak surface reflection - a trough axis roughly from Evansville to near St. Patchy fog looks possible after midnight as the region sits in broad low level troughing and light ambient winds - with dewpoints in the 70s. Thursday another weak upper low approaches and will likely spark another round of showers and isolated thunderstorms in the afternoon. Lapse rates steepen slightly as the trough approaches but cloud coverage should still mostly limit instability and pulse severe storm chances. Although forcing from the trough will probably increase coverage across the eastern half of the area in the afternoon.
938 PM EDT Wed Jun 9 2021 A back door cold front passes through the region tonight as high pressure builds from the north. High pressure then pushes off the New England coast on Thursday night.
Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms developed this afternoon mainly over central and northeast Oregon in response to the upper trough over the Pacific northwest. By Thursday afternoon this system is out of the area with westerly flow and weak ridge building in.
Said trough will move northeastward/eastward pushing the convection in the same direction toward southern Canada and northeastern Minnesota through the evening hours. Warm temperatures will continue for the region as a ridge axis pushes back northward Thursday morning allowing for above normal high temperatures. A weak cold front will drop southeastward into northeastern Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin by the afternoon hours.
Low pressure trough moves across northern California and Nevada tonight and tomorrow with strong winds continuing across the eastern Sierra and central Nevada this evening. Make sure to cover any sensitive vegetation if you live in a typically colder valley, as you could see a few hours of freezing temperatures.
64", likely due in part to modest upper ridging centered roughly over the Big Bend region of Texas. The drier mid level air along with subsidence from the high should aid in suppressing showers and thunderstorms tonight and tomorrow, so kept PoPs trimmed below mention in WX grids. That said, region is situated far enough on the periphery of the upper high that an isolated shower or two can't be totally ruled out during peak heating.
713 PM CDT Wed Jun 9 2021 (This evening through Thursday) Increasing temperatures, combined with extremely high dew point temperatures and a recent long stretch of significantly cooler than average daytime temperatures, have prompted us to issue a Heat Advisory for most of our forecast area.
835 PM EDT Wed Jun 9 2021 Cold front will complete its journey across the region tonight. For the most part, a dry, cooler and less humid day in store on Thursday though an isolated shower or thunderstorm could pop-up in the afternoon along the NY/PA state line.
Temperatures have climbed into the low to upper 80s. At the surface, a weak area of low pressure is forming in the lee of the Rockies. Aloft, the area is currently experiencing upper level ridging with a strong trough of low pressure moving into the western US. Overall, generally quiet weather is anticipated for the rest of today and tonight across the High Plains. During the overnight hours, a strong cold front. Behind the front, expect cooler temperatures and perhaps strong northwest winds.
1015 PM EDT Wed Jun 9 2021 Deep-layer ridging extending from the western Atlantic across the southeastern United States will continue to dominate the region overnight. At the surface, high pressure centered over Bermuda will support moderate to occasionally fresh east to southeast breezes. Temperatures will be in the lower 80s to near 80 degrees, with dewpoints in the lower 70s. From synopsis, High pressure centered over Bermuda will continue to produce moderate to occasionally fresh breezes through Thursday night. As high pressure breaks down towards the end of the week, breezes will slacken, becoming light to gentle.
305 PM MDT Wed Jun 9 2021 A vigorous upper-level short wave trough is expected to lift north and east from the Great Basin into the central/northern Rocky Mtns on Thursday. Sharp upper-level ridging will contribute to one more very hot & dry day across a large portion of the region in advance of the associated cold front. Two major concerns for Thursday will include the potential for widespread strong winds as well as a few severe thunderstorms along the pre-frontal trough/dryline over our eastern zones.
/Issued 255 PM EDT Wed Jun 9 2021/ High pressure remains centered across the southeast US. Highest precip chances remain across the north where there is less influence from the upper ridging across the northern GOMEX. NListemaa Tropical, summertime conditions will persist through the end of the week as low-level ridging extended from the Bermuda High continues to push a warm, moist Gulf airmass into the eastern CONUS.
/issued 344 PM CDT Wed Jun 9 2021/ The stubborn upper-level trough that has helped bringing copious rainfall to the Mid-South continues to spin overhead this afternoon. Semi-organized convection will rotate around the parent trough, though coverage and intensity are not expected to be on par with what we've been seeing the past few days.
This, coupled with temperatures in the 90s will push heat index values to the low 100s for many spots. The upper trough and associated cold front should initiate thunderstorms across western SD and perhaps southward into the Neb panhandle this evening.
Upper trough that has triggered scattered convection for the past several days continues to weaken and drift slowly eastward this morning.
1240 AM EDT Thu Jun 10 2021 A back door cold front passes through the region tonight as high pressure builds from the north. High pressure then pushes off the New England coast on Thursday night.
An upper low will continue to sit and spin over central Indiana today, and conditions should be very similar to yesterday in terms of the overall weather expected.
An upper low and its weak surface reflection will continue to wobble over the area, providing enough convergence in conjunction with modest instability for continued convective chances.
309 AM EDT Thu Jun 10 2021 High pressure will move across northern New England bringing in a pleasant and refreshing airmass.
311 AM CDT Thu Jun 10 2021 Hot and dry weather is expected again today as the upper level high pressure ridge axis remains overhead with little change since Wednesday. Very high surface dewpoints (Td) this morning in the lower to mid 70s from the central South Plains through the Rolling Plains are expected to mix a little drier than Wednesday, even on the east side of the dryline where Td should drop into the upper 60s. But temperatures will also be a couple degrees warmer over the Rolling Plains, partially offsetting the benefit of slightly lower humidity.
654 PM CDT Thu Nov 3 2022 (This evening through Friday) The WV imagery was showing a strong upper level trough over the western US with a ridge along the Gulf Coast. At the surface, southerly flow was transporting gulf moisture north across west central Texas with dewpoints in the lower to mid 60s.
(Tonight) This evening, the TN Valley remains situated beneath a mid-level ridge extending northward from a subtropical high centered across the northern Gulf of Mexico. Although this, along with a gradual increase in southeasterly winds at the surface, may reduce temperature falls close to sunrise, we still feel confident that lows will range from the lower 50s (E) to upper 50s (W), with patchy fog possible mainly in the wind- protected valleys across northeast AL.
As is often the case with late autumn closed lows and weak instability, greatest wind impacts may occur prior to the arrival of showers and thunderstorms.
657 PM CDT Thu Nov 3 2022 (Tonight) High pressure at the surface promoting tranquil weather across the Tennessee Valley, with a mostly clear sky and southerly breezes making for a very mild day. Temperatures will fall off quickly after sunset, eventually bottoming out in the low to mid 50s by early Friday morning.
Did take some of the colder valleys in the east down a few more degrees and also bumped up the lows atop the ridges, given the current trends in the observations. As the forecast period begins, a decaying surface cold front will be on the CWA's doorstep.
1018 PM MDT Thu Nov 3 2022 Water vapor shows splitting trof extending from the Northern Rockies through the Desert SW. At the surface, cold front has shifted well south/east of the forecast area with high building into eastern MT. A cold night expected areawide with widespread lows in the teens to lower 20s, and a few degrees warmer in south central SD. Next upper trof/cold front will push into the Canadian Rockies on Saturday, with dry and breezy downslope flow ahead of the cold front helping temps rise back into the 60s south/east of the Black Hills.
117 AM EDT Fri Nov 4 2022 High pressure centered north of the area Tonight will result in mostly clear skies across the forecast area, although some high- res guidance suggests development of patchy fog interior areas and low clouds spreading from coastal water over coastal counties late Tonight.
As this Low moves out through Saskatchewan it'll drag a strong cold front through the area. This will bring some strong winds through the area, with the highest gusts expected over the western half of the CWA.
322 AM EDT Fri Nov 4 2022 High pressure will provide warm weather for the remainder of the week. Showers will develop by Saturday ahead of a cold front.
Discussion: High pressure building into the region today at the surface and aloft has brought mostly sunny skies after a slower start due to patchy fog in many areas this morning.