Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Old cold front over the Gulf waters is transitioning into a warm frontal boundary and will push north toward the forecast area tonight and into the forecast area on Tuesday. Therefore, pre-warm frontal weather is likely for the terminals. /issued 340 PM CST Mon Feb 5 2018/ Mid-afternoon sfc analysis shows the forecast area caught between a pair of weak boundaries, the first the remains of yesterday's cold front lingering just beyond the outer coastal waters and the other a sfc trof/weak cool front extending through the cntl/srn Plains states. and the retreating warm front could help produce a few showers starting this evening, especially over the srn 1/2 of the area. Temperatures across the srn zones are likely to stabilize not long after sunset and hold relatively steady the remainder of the night as the warm front passes.
FOR 00Z Aviation discussion below Clearing taking place across eastern MN as the trough exits the region. High pressure builds across the area tonight and should provide a mostly clear sky and decreasing winds.
954 PM EST Mon Feb 5 2018 Chilly high pressure will extend into the area through tonight, before moving offshore Tuesday.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 37 52 48 55 / 20 50 90 100 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 32 49 43 53 / 20 30 80 90 Oak Ridge, TN 33 49 43 54 / 20 30 90 90 Tri Cities Airport, TN 29 46 39 52 / 20 20 60 100.
413 PM CST Mon Feb 5 2018 Reports of snow with pockets of freezing drizzle have been coming in across much of the forecast area. Couple those factors with the fact that we're sitting at 20 degrees at the office this afternoon, overnight lows in the low to mid single digits again seem plausible. What a difference from last week's model presentation, which originally showed a leeside low lifting north from the southern High Plains, with a cold front and associated frontogenesis max approaching from north, which were to both act as additional forcing mechanisms for precip production.
Zonal flow aloft will occur over the next 24 hours as westerly winds persist above 700MB as the base of an upper longwave trough remains over the region.
1050 AM CDT Fri May 12 2017 Upper level low currently spinning over extreme southeast Oklahoma and Southwest Arkansas will continue to drift to the southeast Today.
Surface winds will be shifting from the South and Southwest ahead of the cold front to the West and Northwest with and in wake of the cold front. /issued 524 AM CDT Fri May 12 2017/ Our air temps are in the low to mid 60s under several decks of clouds and we are looking forward to all of the rain totals to come. The cold front is just now edging into our NE TX counties, but will drop in the front door quickly mid to late morning.
950 AM EDT Fri May 12 2017 The view from space shows an upper Level low spinning across the Ozarks. High pressure is currently centered over the central Gulf of Mexico and the Florida Peninsula. The marine reporting stations including Smith Shoal, Sand Key, and Pulaski Shoal are out of the southeast to south near 15 knots, while east of the Lower Keys off shore we have south at 5 to 10 knots. Little change in the current forecast with high pressure dominating the area through Saturday evening. The trough to north will become negatively tilted Saturday afternoon.
Lingering instability along weak sfc trof may trigger a few more showers later this morning and afternoon. Showers have also been confined near lingering weak inverted trof/sfc convergent area. Inverted surface trof weakens and sags southeast through the day. Similar to yesterday, forecast soundings show the low levels remaining dry below 3k ft, but can not rule out a few light showers developing along this weak convergence zone.
903 AM EDT Fri May 12 2017 The region will be between low pressure to the Northeast and high pressure to the Southwest Today.
At the surface, an area of low pressure is spinning over Arkansas with a trailing cold front extending into Texas. High pressure over the Atlantic extends westward over Florida, with its axis over south Florida. This will keep temperatures a bit cooler at the coast, but inland regions will get into the lower 90s. High pressure will slowly sink southward today as a cold front approaches from the northeast.
1042 AM EDT Fri May 12 2017 We'll experience one more rain-free day, under the influence of high pressure.
Otherwise, VFR condtions will prevail during the next 24 hours as an upper level ridge builds overhead. Southwest breezes are forecast over the weekend, with only a sight chance for showers or storms and mainly over the higher terrain.
This portion of the ridge will weaken today ahead of approaching frontal system across the southern states/Gulf of Mexico. This type of flow regime focuses the warmest temps on the east side of the peninsula and don't expect the cirrus to inhibit temps from reaching the lower-mid 90s. A high pressure ridge to our south along with lowering pressures to the north will lead to slightly increased pressure gradient.
1003 AM EDT Fri May 12 2017 Low pressure will drift east across the Lower Ohio Valley today into tonight.
Maliawco An upper low will be over the Pacific NW and British Columbia today and generally remain there over the weekend. Upper ridge over Eastern Montana will bring a warm and dry day to the forecast area. The ridge moves east into the Dakotas tonight. A cold front move across the forecast area tonight. Northwest winds behind the cold front tonight will initially be strong enough to maintain the Lake Wind Advisory but the winds will diminish by Saturday morning and current forecast have NW winds staying below Lake Wind Advisory criteria of 20 mph on Saturday. Saturday will be dry for the most part with Northeast Montana between systems in SW flow aloft with cooler temperatures.
949 AM CDT Fri May 12 2017 Prefrontal trof and portions of the front are now off the coast.
/issued 355 AM EDT Fri May 12 2017/ Today: upper level ridge that has been dominating the weather pattern most of the week across South Florida gradually shifts east into the Atlantic waters this weekend.
1146 AM CDT Fri May 12 2017 Vigorous upper low continue to spin across Southern Arkansas late this morning and this feature is forecast to continue moving east southeast into Central Mississippi late this evening. Strong PVA in association with this trough will likely result in scattered showers and a few isolated thunderstorms later today, possibly affecting the TXK/ELD/SHV and MLU terminals. Made mention of this in the 18z taf package with VCSH or VCTS through the afternoon and early evening hours before the precip dissipates with the upper low ejecting eastward. Cloud cover will continue to fill in underneath the upper level low with MVFR ceilings maybe being stubborn to lift at the TXK/ELD terminals. Strong pressure gradient remains in place underneath the upper low today with northwest winds sustained near 10-14kts with higher gusts.
An upper level ridge will move across the state today and be east of Colorado tonight. There may be enough moisture and instability for a few high based showers and storms over the higher terrain along and south on I-70. This will help keep temperatures up with lows in the lower 50s possible in places.
702 AM EDT Fri May 12 2017 We'll experience one more rain-free day, under the influence of high pressure.
General forecast on track with cold front tightening up across the area.
The highest chance of rainfall across most of our area, as showers and thunderstorms will be likely during this time along/ahead of a cold front. A closed upper low over Oklahoma early this morning will translate east southeastward into northern Mississippi this evening. At that time, the associated cold front will extend southwestward from a low over central Mississippi to the western Gulf.
1235 PM EDT Fri May 12 2017 Low pressure will drift east across the Lower Ohio Valley today into tonight.
911 AM EDT Fri May 12 2017 High pressure will build across the area today and Saturday.
1047 AM CDT Fri May 12 2017 Upper low will continue to move away from the area. As the low moves away, clouds will slowly exit the rest of the area this afternoon. A few isolated light showers or sprinkles rotating around the backside of the low may still affect far SE portions of the fa over the next few hours as well. /issued 326 AM CDT Fri May 12 2017/ The upper low that brought storms the last 2 days is moving away from central Oklahoma early this morning.
There could even be a break in the precip this afternoon before the upper low pivots southeast into MS and brings the warm conveyor/deformation zone into north AL/southern TN. With the low across central MS/W AL and the TN Valley on the northern side of the system, any thunderstorms chances will end fairly quickly this evening. Showers then gradually end from west to east tonight through Saturday morning as drier and cooler air filters in. While it will be sunny the CAA behind the low is forecast to keep temps in the low to mid 70s for Saturday.
A dry cold front will move through the area late today bringing windy conditions ahead of and behind the front. Morning satellite and H5 analysis has the upper level trough swinging through the Pacific Northwest with a strong jet axis extending from northern California into northern Idaho. The dry cold front expected this afternoon to cross into northwest Utah will bring a sharp wind shift to the northwest and post- frontal winds should remain as strong into the evening hours. Temperatures this weekend will be much cooler across northern Utah and this will slow runoff into area rivers. A cold front will cross the terminal between 02Z and 04Z tonight with winds shifting to northwest and remaining gusty for an hour or so behind the front.
The main focus for today through Saturday will be a weak warm front that is becoming established across the Red River Valley. The warm front will continue to set off a few showers or sprinkles across mainly our southern portions of the CWA today. Lows tonight will range from 30 north to the lower 40s south, with highs on Saturday ranging from the mid 60s northeast to the upper 70s southwest. It will be cooler near Lake Superior. But first, an upper ridge of high pressure over the northland at the beginning of this period will gradually break down as a deep upper low makes landfall over the Pacific Northwest. This will result in height falls over the midwest and contribute to the formation of a lee low pressure area as the upper low digs a trof over the western U.
543 AM MDT Fri May 12 2017 Ridge axis centered along the spine of the Rockies early this morning will slowly translate east toward the plains today. Large scale subsidence combined with a dry air mass in place will yield sunny, dry and warmer conditions today. Mid/upper-level flow backs to the southwest tonight & Saturday as trough across the PacNW and W Coast inches east as the bulk of the energy lifts northeast into Canada. At the sfc, a deepening lee- side pressure trof will interact with the right entrance region of the 100+KT H3 jet-streak to spark a few afternoon and early evening shower/thunderstorms on Saturday from the Laramie Range east into the NW Nebraska Panhandle.
732 AM EDT Fri May 12 2017 Low pressure will drift east across the Lower Ohio Valley today into tonight.
1205 PM EDT Fri May 12 2017 High pressure will build across the area today and Saturday.
Today will be the warmest day in nearly a week as an area of high pressure moves by to the east.
Phasing of the emerging southern stream low and the Central Canadian to Great Lakes trough is expected to pull moisture into the inverted trough axis later today, which is analyzed from HLG to FKL. Trough axis and the bulk of the deep moisture will shift eastward by early Sat morning. troughing is expected to moderate and dry conditions for the first half of the new week. The aforementioned western trough is projected to amplify and maintain a Central CONUS, to Great Lakes and Upper Ohio ridge as the week begins to wane. Ceilings will remain mostly MVFR this morning, and little improvement is expected as moisture will be refunneled over the region via deepening low pressure.
626 AM CDT Fri May 12 2017 330 AM CDT Early morning surface analysis depicts a subtle inverted trough and moisture axis from central Wisconsin to the mid-Mississippi Valley of western Illinois and eastern Missouri. Partly sunny/mostly cloudy skies expected across north central IL near the trough, while areas farther east/southeast should see more sun. Weak trough axis continues to wash out across the area tonight with some lingering patchy cloud cover.
The primary concern for severe weather potential will be redevelopment of storms later this afternoon and into the early evening as the upper low moves into the ArkLaMiss region.
/Issued 510 AM CDT Fri May 12 2017/ Upper level low pressure system will exit the area today with dry northerly flow in place. Temperatures will continue on the rise over the next few days, as the ridge of high pressure moves over the central CONUS.
617 AM CDT Fri May 12 2017 An elongated area of high pressure extends from Minnesota down towards the panhandle of Texas.
100 PM EDT Fri May 12 2017 Low pressure will drift east across the Lower Ohio Valley today into tonight.
PoPs will be lowered through 18Z, but we will see increasing coverage after that time as all short term models point toward convection developing near the Plateau in the next few hours and tracking east through the afternoon ahead of a cold front currently across KY.
A cold front, that was located near CKV at 11z this morning, will move southward across the Mid-State today.
703 AM EST Wed Dec 6 2017 Today through the end of the week will trend cooler as a front clears the area and moves to the east. A cold front and its attendant precipitation has cleared the forecast area to the east, kicking off a drying and cooling trend for northern New York and Vermont this morning. The moist, southerly flow ahead of the front that brought above normal temperatures to begin the work week has yielded to drier, cooler southwesterly flow behind the front. The low pressure system driving the front remains over Ontario, so the majority of the colder air associated with this system will stay well to the north of the International Border.
High pressure is dominating western states weather. Unlike yesterday, the low clouds aren't very low, mostly at or slightly above 2000ft AGL.
/Issued 326 AM EST Wed Dec 6 2017/ A strong cold front will continue to move southward out of the CWA with rain slowly ending across north GA early this morning. The front will stall as another short wave develops and moves along the cold front this afternoon. However can't totally rule out a flurry or two late tonight/early Thursday in the higher elevations of the northeast mountains. Elongated upper level trough will continue to sit over the eastern U.
The northern stream and southern stream waves look to merge into a longwave trough tonight with the forecast area remaining in a warm advection regime. Meanwhile in the lower levels, cold air advection continues to supply fresh cool/dry air from the north serving to maintain the isentropic ramp aloft. /26/ Thursday: Another cold/wet/raw day is in order, particularly across the Pine Belt, as a cooler and drier airmass continues to seep into the area. With a broad and deep upper trough remaining elongated from the Baja of Mexico northeastward through the Great Lakes, our region will be on the downstream side of this feature under the divergent entrance region of an upper jet max.
While dry air will remain in place in the lower levels of the atmosphere. Even though there is an upper level wave moving through yet Thursday and Thursday night, the low level moisture decreases and skies will be mostly clear. Behind the wave, there will be another push of cold air and Thursday will be cooler.
Subjective 00Z upper-air analysis indicates a stacked low centered in northern ON, with the trough extending from the northern Rockies to the mid-Atlantic, and with a southwestern US weak upper low that was largely cut off from the main flow. An upper-level ridge was centered off the coast of OR/northern CA. In wake of the cold air push today and tonight, 850mb temperatures will fall into the lower teens below zero into Thursday. Updated forecast continues to hold high temperatures below freezing for the first time this cold season. Climatologically, the average first day with a high below freezing is around November 15-20, and a December 7 occurrence would be around the 5th to 15th latest on record across the area.
High pressure will remain in control until further notice.
The clouds overnight have kept temperatures warmer than normal in these areas. Meanwhile, across southwest Montana, Lemhi county and central Idaho, clear skies has led to temperatures in the low teens to single digits this morning. For southwest Montana, Lemhi county and central Idaho, ample sunshine will warm the valleys but due to the low sun angle this time of year, high temperatures will still struggle to get above freezing.
937 AM EST Wed Dec 6 2017 A strong cold front slowly crossing the forecast area will reach the coast this afternoon.
A pool of cold and stable air has advected into the low levels on the back of strong 30+ knot winds residing below 900mb. Isentropic forcing over the low level cold pool will continue to produce overcast skies and stratiform rain until the southwest flow aloft shifts to the northwest.
Tonight and Thursday, a dry cold front from the north pushes through the region bringing significantly stronger winds. It will also lead to cooler temperatures.
A cool and breezy day is expected as high pressure builds across the region. Light snow across southwest North Dakota will continue to diminish this morning as high pressure moves in. Northwesterly wind gusts of 20-30kts are expected across most of western and central North Dakota today as high pressure builds into the area.
Will maintain the low pops in the far southwest and keep at least the possibility of mixed precip in for a few hours this morning, but still expect it to mostly be sprinkles. As we have been describing for the last few days, the area will remain under the influence of northwest/north flow aloft, and this pattern will keep us dry and with occasional cold fronts sweeping down the Plains. One cold front will move through today with a 1035-1040 mb ridge settling into the Plains, so Thursday may be the coolest day that we've seen this season.
722 AM CST Wed Dec 6 2017 Dry and seasonably chilly weather will prevail today ahead of an reinforcing cold front. Strong cold air advection with 850 MB temperatures around minus 10 degrees Celsius will allow temperatures Thursday to only reach the lower and middle 30s.
352 AM MST Wed Dec 6 2017 Upper level analysis has highly amplified flow with large trof across the central and eastern CONUS, and sharp ridge along the West Coast. Clipper system and associated cold front will drop south through the forecast area this morning, bringing continued light snow for much of the area, along with gusty northwest winds.
954 AM EST Wed Dec 6 2017 Current light rain shower echoes on KBYX Doppler radar are pushing slowly west/northwestward in the offshore Atlantic waters well south/southwest of the Lower Keys. A few light showers wet portions of the Lower Keys earlier this morning. Moisture is limited to the lowest layers, no surprise there, but the value is elevated thanks to the nearby shower activity at the time of launch.
1001 AM EST Wed Dec 6 2017 Today through the end of the week will trend cooler as a front clears the area and moves to the east. A cold front and its attendant precipitation has cleared the forecast area to the east, kicking off a drying and cooling trend for northern New York and Vermont this morning. The moist, southerly flow ahead of the front that brought above normal temperatures to begin the work week has yielded to drier, cooler southwesterly flow behind the front. The low pressure system driving the front remains over Ontario, so the majority of the colder air associated with this system will stay well to the north of the International Border.
SHORT TERM (Today through Thursday): A cold front has completed its transition through the inland portion of the BRO CWFA and through most of the adjacent coastal waters, and light precipitation is developing in the wake of the front. Although the precipitation will be scattered in coverage today and early tonight, it will become more widespread and numerous later tonight through Thursday as a 500 mb trough transitions from the Desert Southwest to the far western portion of the Lone Star State. With overcast skies accompanying the scattered to numerous precipitation and generally northerly winds prevailing in the wake of the cold front, well below normal temperatures are likely, with not much of a temperature range from overnight lows to daytime highs.
Northerly flow aloft will continue today as high pressure builds into the forecast area. High pressure builds into the area tonight with diminishing winds. Mid and high level moisture spilling over the ridge will bring some mid and highs clouds over the area. West coast upper ridge expands into Montana on Thursday with dry weather and warmer temperatures. A large upper level ridge will remain over the Pacific Coast during the entire period. There will be a deep upper trough to the east with Montana in varying degrees of NW flow aloft.
835 AM EST Wed Dec 6 2017 High pressure will hold on today with light southeasterly winds shifting to southwest this afternoon. The cold front will move into continue to move slowly southeast across north Florida reaching our northern waters and Levy county toward evening. Winds and seas begin to increase tonight through the end of the week, as a cold front moves slowly southward across the waters, with periods of cautionary to advisory conditions and showers likely.
The lower clouds that briefly set up over the nrn mtns have begun to move to the east. Wind may relax for a bit with a weak bump of high pressure moving over. Global model and ensemble guidance remains in very good agreement on the maintenance of high latitude blocking pattern featuring an amplified ridge-trough configuration over the West Coast and eastern NOAM. Finally, there appears to be multiple waves of low pressure lifting north along a western Atlantic front from late week into the early weekend timeframe, with guidance varying on specifics. Most of the lower clouds are out of the area now, as the cold fromt is east of the area.
856 AM EST Wed Dec 6 2017 High pressure will hold on today with light southeasterly winds shifting to southwest this afternoon. The cold front will continue to move slowly southeast across north Florida reaching our northern waters and Levy county toward evening. Winds and seas begin to increase tonight through the end of the week, as a cold front moves slowly southward across the waters, with periods of cautionary to advisory conditions and showers likely.
Northerly winds around 10 knots early this morning increase to 10 to 20 knots by mid morning, with the higher winds expected near the coast.
The lower clouds that briefly set up over the nrn mtns have begun to move to the east. Wind may relax for a bit with a weak bump of high pressure moving over. Global model and ensemble guidance remains in very good agreement on the maintenance of high latitude blocking pattern featuring an amplified ridge-trough configuration over the West Coast and eastern NOAM. Finally, there appears to be multiple waves of low pressure lifting north along a western Atlantic front from late week into the early weekend timeframe, with guidance varying on specifics.