Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
631 PM EDT Mon Sep 19 2022 A cold front pushes into the region from the north by tonight.
1057 PM EDT Mon Sep 19 2022 A cold front pushes into the region from the north by tonight.
An upper-level composite analysis this evening shows two deep layer mean anticyclones centered several hundred miles east- southeast and west-northwest of the Florida Keys, respectively, with an area of rather weak and nondescript flow locally. Currently, air temperatures in most Keys island communities are holding steady in the mid 80s, with dewpoint temperatures in the mid 70s, and heat indices in the lower to mid 90s.
(This afternoon through Tuesday) The trend of no major changes continues in the short term as high pressure reigns supreme. High temps will be on the gradual rise through the week, with highs creeping into the low 90s by tomorrow afternoon with lows in the mid to upper 60s.
747 PM EDT Mon Sep 19 2022 Weak high pressure will build into the Ohio Valley tonight and Tuesday.
Water vapor shows long wave trof moving into the far western CONUS, with northern stream wave digging over BC/ALTA and nearly cut off low just off the coast. At the surface, lee trof moving through the western Dakotas with cold front just entering northwest MT. Cold front will cross in the morning with a secondary push on Tuesday night.
Southerly flow associated with an area of low pressure off the California coast will move additional moisture across eastern Oregon on Tuesday.
521 PM MDT Mon Sep 19 2022 Water vapor shows long wave trof moving into the far western CONUS, with northern stream wave digging over BC/ALTA and nearly cut off low just off the coast. At the surface, lee trof moving through the western Dakotas with cold front just entering northwest MT. Cold front will cross in the morning with a secondary push on Tuesday night.
Showers presently over northeastern Montana are expected to begin entering northwestern North Dakota over the next few hours as a cold frontal boundary starts sliding through the forecast area. A prefrontal trough continues to move through the western part of the state mixing drier air to the surface. A cold front over north central Montana is still expected to push through the region late tonight bringing fall like weather. Precipitation is possible along the cold front tonight into Tuesday morning mainly for western North Dakota. The cold front will bring cooler temperatures to the region through the work week.
Key Messages: - Shower and storm chances increase overnight - Very warm and muggy tomorrow SHOWERS AND STORMS LATE TONIGHT: As a warm front approaches the area overnight, shower and storm chances will be on the rise-especially in central Wisconsin. A surge of warm, very moist air helps saturate the lower levels late tonight. Once the low levels are saturated, warm air advection, moisture transport, and a low level jet will all work to provide plentiful lift and initiate showers and storms in western Wisconsin. WARM AND MUGGY TOMORROW: Very warm temperatures will arrive in the wake of the warm front tomorrow with highs reaching 85-90 for most. Heat index values are currently forecast in the low to mid 90s tomorrow afternoon. COOLER WEATHER ON THE WAY.
Negligible change in the strength/position of the ridge through tomorrow will result in temperatures remaining 5 to 10 degrees above normal for most and only slightly warmer temperatures Tuesday. /Issued 248 PM CDT Mon Sep 19 2022/ /Tuesday Night Through The Weekend/ The upper level ridge will continue to dominate our sensible weather through the work week and keep temperatures 5 to 10 degrees above normal from midweek into the weekend.
806 PM EDT Mon Sep 19 2022 A cold front pushes into the region from the north by tonight.
Overnight lows should in the low to mid 70s are anticipated with a chance for some low clouds before sunrise, especially over interior areas.
The forecast area sits along the eastern edge of high pressure that is centered over the MS River Valley. While some CAMs indicate a few light showers enter far northeast AL, soundings show a lot of dry air in the low levels and the upper levels.
737 PM EDT Mon Sep 19 2022 High pressure will expand over our area from the northwest through midweek.
707 PM CDT Mon Sep 19 2022 Showers presently over northeastern Montana are expected to begin entering northwestern North Dakota over the next few hours as a cold frontal boundary starts sliding through the forecast area. A prefrontal trough continues to move through the western part of the state mixing drier air to the surface. A cold front over north central Montana is still expected to push through the region late tonight bringing fall like weather. Precipitation is possible along the cold front tonight into Tuesday morning mainly for western North Dakota. The cold front will bring cooler temperatures to the region through the work week.
Drier and warmer weather conditions are forecast to return late in the week.
741 PM CDT Mon Sep 19 2022 (This evening through Tuesday Night) The building upper level ridge (i. Despite suppression from the ridging aloft, precipitable water values nearing 1. The chance of any showers tomorrow will basically be nil as ridging suppression increases while lower level moisture decreases.
Tuesday morning lows will be a few degrees warmer than this morning. RW (This afternoon through Tuesday) The trend of no major changes continues in the short term as high pressure reigns supreme. High temps will be on the gradual rise through the week, with highs creeping into the low 90s by tomorrow afternoon with lows in the mid to upper 60s.
1012 PM EDT Mon Sep 19 2022 Weak high pressure will build into the Ohio Valley tonight and Tuesday.
1012 PM EDT Mon Sep 19 2022 High pressure will expand over our area from the northwest through midweek.
758 PM EDT Mon Sep 19 2022 Aviation -- Warm frontal showers, storms possible late tonight/Tuesday -- First order of business is a warm front that is expected to touch off some showers late tonight into Tuesday morning.
1032 PM CDT Mon Sep 19 2022 (This evening through Tuesday) The center of the upper ridge will continue to wobble near the Red River in the short term.
Weak ascent behind it is keeping lingering rain shower activity in the middle portions of the state, and a deck of low stratus is trailing behind it that will move over areas at, north, and west of Billings that will persist through the afternoon, assisting in keeping the cooler temperatures ever present that were brought in behind the front (highs not above 60 for south-central MT).
A closed upper low spins over southern Quebec with associated troughing extending south through the western Atlantic. This trough will be responsible for the NNW-NNE steering flow for Hurricane Fiona, currently located southeast of the Turks and Caicos Islands.
1221 AM CDT Tue Sep 20 2022 (The rest of tonight) Dome of high pressure remained common across the Southern Plains this evening with mostly clear skies to some passing high clouds over Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas. high pressure along with mostly clear to a few passing high clouds should continue across the CWA. low temps look to be slightly cooler for much of Northeast Oklahoma while lows across the rest of the CWA should be close to this mornings lows.
140 AM EDT Tue Sep 20 2022 A coastal trough keeps a slight chance a showers near the southern portions of the Grand Strand region today, though most should stay dry. High pressure keeps a mostly dry trend throughout the week, with high temperatures soaring into the 90s. A cold front brings a dose of fall by this weekend. Weakening coastal trough should be gone by sunset. Dry weather persists after the coastal trough moves out and upper level ridging builds in from the west.
1200 AM EDT Tue Sep 20 2022 Aviation -- Warm frontal showers, storms possible late tonight/Tuesday -- First order of business is a warm front that is expected to touch off some showers late tonight into Tuesday morning.
Upper ridging continues to build in today and the cold the front that moved through yesterday will return north as a warm front.
220 AM MDT Tue Sep 20 2022 Synoptic Overview: The mid-latitude westerlies will largely be relegated to higher latitudes (> 40N) in this period -- as an amplifying upper level ridge (over the Southern Plains) extends northward into the Central Plains. Guidance suggests that a broad/persistent lee cyclone in southeast CO may act to [initially] slow/delay the frontal passage.
(Today and tonight) Late summer pattern continues across West Central Texas with upper level high pressure dominating across the area.
115 AM EDT Tue Sep 20 2022 High pressure will expand over our area from the northwest through midweek.
Winds still rather light and variable along and ahead of the trough, with fairly high humidity in the lower levels. Cooler air lags behind the front a bit as we don't see 850 mb temps drop below +10C until tonight.
201 AM CDT Tue Sep 20 2022 A warm front is lifting through Iowa early this morning. Well to the south, in the warm sector over Missouri and Nebraska/Kansas, the dewpoints are lower, in the lower to mid 60s for the most part.
A high pressure centered over Texas is allowing a hot, dry airmass to infiltrate the ArkLaMiss region. Elsewhere, temperatures will range in the lower to middle 90s. Overnight, clear skies will be present with lows a little warmer, in the lower 70s.
Today Southwesterly flow will will advect unseasonably warm air in ahead of an approaching cold front. With the warmer air comes rising fire danger concerns.
335 AM EDT Tue Sep 20 2022 High pressure tracking across Ohio from the northwest will provide dry weather today.
500 AM EDT Tue Sep 20 2022 High pressure tracking across Ohio from the northwest will provide dry weather today.
302 AM CDT Tue Sep 20 2022 Much cooler temperatures and breezy conditions highlight the short term forecast period. A cold front extended southwest from the low across central and into southwest North Dakota. Behind the cold front, highs will be much cooler ranging from the lower 60s northwest to the mid to upper 70s across the southern James River Valley.
(Today) Upper level and surface ridging will continue to dominate the forecast for today, with high temperatures expected to climb a degree or two warmer than yesterday across the region.
It will be warm with highs in the lower to middle 80s.
211 AM MDT Tue Sep 20 2022 Current surface map places cold front across northeast Wyoming through the northern Black Hills into northwest South Dakota. Cold front will drop south of the forecast area this morning. Secondary cold front arrives tonight.
- Cooler, closer to normal for the remainder of the forecast.
Due to the lingering high pressure system, we are continuing to see hot and dry weather throughout this week.
133 AM EDT Tue Sep 20 2022 Weak high pressure will build into the Ohio Valley tonight and Tuesday.
(Today and tonight) Ridging continues to build leaving us with another summer like day in temps of temperatures, as highs soar into the low 90s.
604 AM CDT Tue Sep 20 2022 (Today) Upper level and surface ridging will continue to dominate the forecast for today, with high temperatures expected to climb a degree or two warmer than yesterday across the region.
405 AM CDT Tue Sep 20 2022 Sfc cold front will move through the area during the course of today, and extend from near Duluth to Sioux Falls at 21z. 850 mb temps cool gradually as thermal ridge shifts southeast, but main cooling awaits til overnight into Wednesday as 500 mb trough moves overhead.
643 AM CDT Tue Sep 20 2022 (Today through Wednesday) A strong upper level ridge has settled over the southern US. High pressure at the surface was centered to the east of our CWA and the winds were generally from the southeast. The upper ridge will shift a bit farther west during this period. The low level pattern will remain nearly unchanged. With the strong ridge over the area, most convection will be suppressed. Given the slight westward shift of the upper high, we will keep any mention of rain out of the forecast.
A cold front will move into the area late this afternoon and evening and there is a chance for a few thunderstorms along the front. The cold front will continue southeast and cooler air will move in from the north. Expect much cooler weather and increased chances of rain. High temperatures will be much cooler than today. only ranging from the low 60s north to the mid 70s in the warmer portions of north central Kansas.
As alluded to in the previous discussion, the main concerns today remain centered on the unseasonably warm temperatures, and whether or not an advancing cold front will put a damper on a few locations reaching record highs. Lows, as a result, will feel refreshingly crisp after today's heat - with values largely in the low to mid 50s.
It will be warm with highs in the lower to middle 80s. Thereafter, look for a significantly cooler air mass for the latter part of the workweek into the weekend.
Quasi-stationary mid/upper low continues to spin off the coast west of the Bay Area.
659 AM EDT Tue Sep 20 2022 High pressure tracking across Ohio from the northwest will provide dry weather today. Very warm temperatures are expected on Wednesday until a cold front moves in later in the day, bringing a good chance for showers and thunderstorms.
624 AM EDT Tue Sep 20 2022 Today will remain seasonably warm and dry, but conditions tomorrow will deteriorate with the approach of a cold front and strong to severe storms posing wind, hail, and tornado threats to points north and west of Pittsburgh. Dry weather will resume today in the wake of the exiting trough, with cold- air advection in nwly flow dropping area temperatures back toward seasonal average. A strong trough will advance sewd from central Canada on Wed, with renewed moisture advected into the region preceding the advancing cold front. Modest heating of a moist boundary layer and increasing cold air aloft will destabilize the highly sheared atmosphere by early-mid afternoon Wed.
Sfc cold front will move through the area during the course of today, and extend from near Duluth to Sioux Falls at 21z. 850 mb temps cool gradually as thermal ridge shifts southeast, but main cooling awaits til overnight into Wednesday as 500 mb trough moves overhead.
A dominant mean-layer ridge persists over the Plains, while the stagnant mid to upper-level trough lingers over Florida and the southeastern Gulf. The Florida Keys are within a col region between Fiona to the east and the trough over the Gulf. The lower tropospheric flow is from the east-southeast, with northwesterlies aloft. Light to gentle easterly breezes will prevail today, becoming northeast tonight as a broad trough shifts west of Florida.
614 AM CDT Tue Sep 20 2022 (Today through Wednesday Night) Summer-like conditions can be expected today as a mid to upper level ridge lingers over Eastern Texas. 500mb heights within the ridge reach 594 dam with 850mb temperatures sitting around the 18-20C range. Subsidence from the ridge and dry conditions will largely suppress rain chances today. The aforementioned mid to upper level ridge will drift west towards Central Texas on Wednesday. Increasing subsidence from the ridge and diminishing moisture will bring clear skies during the day.
Issued by National Weather Service Wilmington OH 1003 AM EDT Tue Sep 20 2022 A strong ridge of high pressure will bring dry and very pleasant weather to eastern Kentucky the next couple of days. Winds should be light and variable today and tonight, before shifting to the southwest on Wednesday at 5 to 10 mph, as high pressure shifts to the east, and a trough of low pressure aloft passes by to our north. Tonight's lows should fall into the upper 50s in our valleys the lower 60s on the surrounding ridges. The period will start with an upper level trough sinking southeast over the northeast CONUS, suppressing a strong ridge over the south central CONUS southwestward.
Drier and warmer weather conditions are forecast to return late in the week and last through the weekend. Showers and thunderstorms will increase again today into this evening as the closed upper low SW of Cape Mendocino slowly moves toward the California coast. NBM hourly rates are on the lower end of the spectrum, 0. The upper low is forecast to continue advancing northeastward across NW California on Wednesday. W and NW flow behind the low may lead to an uptick in showers for the North Coast.
634 AM CDT Tue Sep 20 2022 (Now through Wednesday) Mid-level ridging centered over the ArkLaTex region early this morning will continue to build south over the Lone State today. At the surface, broad high pressure across the northwest Gulf of Mexico will maintain light to moderate northeast to southeast winds across the region through the period.
847 AM MDT Tue Sep 20 2022 Upslope stratus has become widespread over our western forecast area this morning, in the wake of last night's cold front. This low cloud will be slow to erode in the afternoon and evening as easterly flow prevails.
(Rest of Today) A 5h anticyclone was centered over northeast TX this morning, with a prominent ridge axis in mid to upper levels extending east through the southeastern U. A few "ridge riders" have dropped through east TN into far east AL and northwest/west central GA. Have also reduced dew points a few degrees based on expected mixing in the lower atmosphere.
However we expect scattered convection to develop across portions of our area this afternoon due to gradually increasing elevated instability north of the warm front. Scattered convection is also likely to develop very late tonight and Wednesday morning along and just ahead of the approaching strong cold front. However we think the CAMs may be underdone with convection given ample low level moisture and strong omegas with the cold front in conjunction with favorable kinematics and as deep layer shear increases to 30-40 kts.
643 AM EDT Tue Sep 20 2022 (Today and tonight) Ridging continues to build leaving us with another summer like day in temps of temperatures, as highs soar into the low 90s.
1007 AM EDT Tue Sep 20 2022 High pressure tracking across Ohio from the northwest will provide dry weather today. Very warm temperatures are expected on Wednesday until a cold front moves in later in the day, bringing a good chance for showers and thunderstorms.
537 AM EDT Tue Sep 20 2022 A strong ridge of high pressure will bring dry and very pleasant weather to eastern Kentucky the next couple of days. Winds should be light and variable today and tonight, before shifting to the southwest on Wednesday at 5 to 10 mph, as high pressure shifts to the east, and a trough of low pressure aloft passes by to our north. Tonights lows should fall into the upper 50s in our valleys the lower 60s on the surrounding ridges. The period will start with an upper level trough sinking southeast over the northeast CONUS, suppressing a strong ridge over the south central CONUS southwestward.
521 AM MDT Tue Sep 20 2022 Current surface map places cold front across northeast Wyoming through the northern Black Hills into northwest South Dakota. Cold front will drop south of the forecast area this morning. Secondary cold front arrives tonight.
(Now through Wednesday) Mid-level ridging centered over the ArkLaTex region early this morning will continue to build south over the Lone State today. At the surface, broad high pressure across the northwest Gulf of Mexico will maintain light to moderate northeast to southeast winds across the region through the period.
The high pressure ridge axis over the Mid-Atlantic states and the Appalachian is weakening through the short term.
An upper level ridge remains in place over Texas and Oklahoma, extending north into the High Plains. At the surface and 850 mb, a cold front begins to approach the forecast area from the north. Less extreme temperatures can be expected in the northern Sandhills and Panhandle as cooler air begins to flow in from the north. An upper level low deepens over eastern Canada, which will send a surface cold front towards Nebraska.
Theses showers will continue to weaken and move push south as high pressure in Alberta slides into the state. The high pressure will also bring cooler temperatures, with near freezing temperatures for portions of the region on Wednesday morning.
Showers and possibly thunderstorms will be possible again today into Wednesday morning as the low stays west of San Francisco.
A warm front is lifting through Iowa early this morning. Well to the south, in the warm sector over Missouri and Nebraska/Kansas, the dewpoints are lower, in the lower to mid 60s for the most part.
620 AM CDT Tue Sep 20 2022 (Today and tonight) Late summer pattern continues across West Central Texas with upper level high pressure dominating across the area.
Rain activity over the area has generally diminished, but the chance for showers continues tomorrow into Wednesday morning as the low stays west of San Francisco.
923 AM EDT Tue Sep 20 2022 High pressure tracking across Ohio from the northwest will provide dry weather today. Very warm temperatures are expected on Wednesday until a cold front moves in later in the day, bringing a good chance for showers and thunderstorms.
- Cooler, closer to normal for the remainder of the forecast. A cold front will move through the area on Wednesday, knocking temperatures back to closer to normal. The forecast still represents a faster frontal passage and cooler midday highs, with temperatures dropping during the afternoon. The cooler temperatures will also be aided by increased cloud cover and the potential for rain across the northern two-thirds of the forecast. Have expanded chance PoPs further south to about the highway 50 corridor as there are several models showing possible showers/storms along and behind the front.
East-northeast winds will continue overnight into Wednesday morning, mainly across the higher terrain. On Wednesday, a closed low will move northward into eastern Oregon, placing the Northern Rockies under a southerly flow pattern.
752 AM EDT Tue Sep 20 2022 Today will remain seasonably warm and dry, but conditions tomorrow will deteriorate with the approach of a cold front and strong to severe storms posing wind, hail, and tornado threats to points north and west of Pittsburgh. Dry weather will resume today in the wake of the exiting trough, with cold- air advection in nwly flow dropping area temperatures back toward seasonal average. A strong trough will advance sewd from central Canada on Wed, with renewed moisture advected into the region preceding the advancing cold front. Modest heating of a moist boundary layer and increasing cold air aloft will destabilize the highly sheared atmosphere by early-mid afternoon Wed.
Gusty southerly winds develop over eastern Nevada in advance of a closed low circulation near the California coast. Cold front moves east across northern Nevada, bringing cooler weather and scattered showers. Spinning closed low circulation near the California coast very slowly moves east. Upper low ejects northeast on Wednesday, tracking across northwest Nevada before reaching central Idaho Wednesday evening. Surface cold front drags across northern Nevada, reaching east central Nevada late in the day. The strongest cooling occurs over northwest Nevada with afternoon highs 10-15 degrees cooler.
951 AM EDT Tue Sep 20 2022 Weak high pressure will build into the region through Wednesday morning.
WV imagery shows the upper trough over the south central CONUS, centered near the ArklaTex, buttressed by a trough off the coast of the Bay Area, and another over coastal ME. The ridge is forecast to develop west over the next couple of days, with thicknesses increase a bit today, adding 2-3F onto yesterday's highs. As the ridge moves farther west Wednesday, afternoon highs will increase by another degree or two, for afternoon highs averaging 6-8F above normal most locations. This process looks to repeat itself Tuesday night, with NBM suggesting lows a degree or so cooler than tonight's, but still above normal. Rain chances are slim-to-none under the ridge through Wednesday afternoon.