Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
314 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2019 South to southwest winds will increase across the region today ahead of an approaching cold front. As for the cold front, models continue to bring the front into the PAH forecast area tonight, though a bit slower than yesterdays's model runs. Cooler and drier air will filter in behind the cold front Monday into Monday night, with highs Monday in the upper 70s to lower 80s, and lows Monday night in the middle 50s.
Cold front and associated precip shield will move into southern Indiana late tonight, and it will be touch and go for a possible 27th consecutive day without measurable precip at SDF while day 26 is a better bet at LEX.
Although with pretty good upper level subsidence taking over on the back side of the closed low by this point, may very well go unutilized. Northwest surface winds behind the front today have already started to usher in cooler and less humid air.
A cold front will move through central Indiana starting this evening and through tonight. Cooler temperatures are expected for the beginning of the week before increasing to the 80s again by the end of the week.
211 AM EDT Sun Sep 22 2019 High pressure at the surface and aloft will dominate through Monday. A weak cold front with little moisture will move through the area Monday night. High pressure and even warmer temperatures expected for the remainder of the week. Temperatures have fallen into the low 60s to near 70 with overnight low temperatures on track for the upper 50s to lower 60s. High pressure aloft and at the surface will help keep dry condition and Monday.
311 AM EDT Sun Sep 22 2019 After a dry and warm day today under high pressure, showers are likely with a Monday cold front. Ridging and capping warmth aloft should result in dry weather today. The ridge should break down tonight ahead of an approaching Upper Midwestern trough. This trough, and its associated sfc cold front, should cross the region Monday. Maintained chance POPs late Sunday night across NW PA to Ern OH as the trough/front approaches. Maintained likely POPs for the passage of the trough and front Monday, though a lack of strong upper support may result in more scattered shower coverage. Shower chances should continue early Monday evening as the upper trough axis crosses the region.
Upper trough over the western US moves east and splits as it crosses the Rockies. Northern stream energy pushes a dry cold front through Monday night.
Attention then turns to an incoming upper trough that will cross the Rockies Sunday. This will help squash the persistent upper ridge across the southeast and will usher in a modest cold front Monday. Ridging across the Gulf will encourage the front to slow and then stall across central AR through the end of the period.
1039 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2019 As of early afternoon, distinct boundary near the Highway 60 corridor in southwest MN/northwest IA, with line of showers and embedded storms largely confined to the boundary.
317 AM EDT Sun Sep 22 2019 High pressure will prevail early this week.
1150 PM EDT Sat Sep 21 2019 After a dry and warm Sunday, showers are likely with a Monday cold front. The upper ridge will finally start to erode later on Sunday as per encroachment of Midwestern low pressure. The trough and its associated cold front are still slated to cross the Upper Ohio on Monday. Likely PoPs are still appropriate along more scattered coverage is indicated as better forcing for ascent develops north of the region with progress of the low center.
The low level lapse rates are not quite as steep as last night as well.
1053 PM MDT Sat Sep 21 2019 Water vapor shows upper low over ND with trof extending southwest into the Desert SW. Upper ridge building into the Pac NW. Upper ridge currently over the Pac NW advances quickly eastward into the Northern Rockies Sunday and Northern Plains Monday.
/ISSUED 918 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2019/ No major updates this evening with partially cloudy skies briefly becoming mostly overcast across many interior counties around and shortly after sunrise as the lower levels saturate up.
323 AM MDT Sun Sep 22 2019 With the ridge of high pressure pushing into our region from the west, forecast concerns now focus on the colder and wetter weather pattern that seems to be setting up for the latter part of this week. By Monday afternoon the short-lived high pressure ridge axis will have already pushed east of the state of Montana, ushering in the beginning of a shift to cooler temperatures across the region. This shift will be manifest later on Monday by a cold front.
538 AM EDT Sun Sep 22 2019 After a dry and warm day today under high pressure, showers are likely with a Monday cold front. Otherwise, ridging and capping warmth aloft should result in dry weather today. The ridge should break down tonight ahead of an approaching Upper Midwestern trough. This trough, and its associated sfc cold front, should cross the region Monday. Maintained chance POPs late Sunday night across NW PA to Ern OH as the trough/front approaches. Maintained likely POPs for the passage of the trough and front Monday, though a lack of strong upper support may result in more scattered shower coverage. Shower chances should continue early Monday evening as the upper trough axis crosses the region.
South to southwest winds will increase across the region today ahead of an approaching cold front. As for the cold front, models continue to bring the front into the PAH forecast area tonight, though a bit slower than yesterdays's model runs. Cooler and drier air will filter in behind the cold front Monday into Monday night, with highs Monday in the upper 70s to lower 80s, and lows Monday night in the middle 50s.
The next trough of low pressure will begin to work its way into the region late today and Monday providing an increase in southwest winds in Inyo and western San Bernardino counties this afternoon. Weather concerns begin to arise tonight into Monday as a trough off the Pacific Northwest Coast digs and spins up into a closed low over southern Nevada by Monday afternoon. The interaction with the spinning closed low raises concerns of possible organized thunderstorms with severe characteristics over central and southern Mohave County which could lead to large hail and damaging winds. Confidence is still low in such details and any slight shift of the track of the closed low toward northwest Arizona could diminish its effects for convection.
1100 AM EDT Sun Sep 22 2019 High pressure at the surface and aloft will dominate through Monday.
We'll see the rain move eastward today as a cold front and low move in from the west. As the low moves eastward Monday, we'll see high pressure build. Temperatures will still be cooler than normal Monday.
For the short term, a weak cold front will settle into the Midsouth on Monday, associated with a passing northern branch upper trof through the upper Midwest. This trof will briefly suppress the subtropical height ridge to the gulf coast. The combination of surface cold front and stronger westerlies will provide the Midsouth with scattered showers and thunderstorms, particularly during the heat of the day.
/issued 335 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2019/ One upper trough crosses the Rockies onto the plains today as the next one moves ashore the WA/OR coast.
dry weather is expected behind last nights upper trough passage. Low temperatures range from the mid 40s to around 50 in far eastern Colorado to the low and mid 50s east of the CO/KS border. an upper level trough and associated closed low pressure center is forecast to move southeast toward Las Vegas during the day then into Arizona during the night with southwest flow aloft over our area. High temperatures warm into the low to mid 80s. Overnight lows range from the low 50s in far eastern Colorado to the mid 50s to low 60s east of the CO/KS border.
559 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2019 Early this morning a cold front was approaching from Minnesota. As a result, this morning looks to have the highest potential for heavy rainfall that could trigger flash flooding. Clearing will eventually begin to work in overnight tonight as high pressure spreads across the area. The next chance for some rain will be tied to the next cold front to move across the Upper Midwest.
We should still end up with high temps in the upper 80s to lower 90s today as high pressure east of the area remains in firm control and provides a light SW flow.
An upper-level trough and its associated surface cold front will bring southerly winds and scattered showers and a few thunderstorms ahead of it through the day today. By afternoon, sufficient instability is expected to develop along and ahead of the cold front, which is expected to be just north of the I-44 corridor, for a few strong to severe storms to be possible.
A cold front has moved south across KDHT/KGUY over the last hour and the front will be passing through KAMA by 14z. /Issued 446 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2019/ For today, a cold front moving into the Oklahoma Panhandle as of this writing will continue tracking south across the forecast area this morning. Cooler max temperatures are anticipated, especially across the Oklahoma Panhandle and parts of the northern Texas Panhandle. The southern Texas Panhandle will also experience slightly cooler max temps this afternoon.
/issued 445 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2019/ (Today and Tonight) Upper level trough will lift east-northeast from the Southwest US across the Southern Plains during the next 24 hours. More cloud cover will again keep temperatures down a few more degrees, holding in the lower 90s for most areas.
446 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2019 For today, a cold front moving into the Oklahoma Panhandle as of this writing will continue tracking south across the forecast area this morning. Cooler max temperatures are anticipated, especially across the Oklahoma Panhandle and parts of the northern Texas Panhandle. The southern Texas Panhandle will also experience slightly cooler max temps this afternoon.
1052 AM EDT Sun Sep 22 2019 High pressure will prevail early this week.
745 AM EDT Sun Sep 22 2019 After unseasonable warm weather Today, the passage of a cold front Monday will bring showers and cooler air to the region. The ridge will break down tonight ahead of an approaching Upper Midwestern trough. This trough, and its associated sfc cold front, should cross the region Monday. Maintained chance POPs late Sunday night across NW PA to Ern OH as the trough/front approaches. Maintained likely POPs for the passage of the trough and front Monday, though a lack of strong upper support may result in more scattered shower coverage. Showers will taper off through Monday evening as the upper trough axis completes it sweep through the region and exits east.
A Pacific storm system and its associated cold front will move across the Northern Rockies this evening through Monday midday. A broad area of valley rain and mountain snow will occur along and behind the cold front.
Overnight, another low pressure system will begin moving through the Silver State. One more dry day, then an upper low will bring some light amounts of precipitation to most of the LKN CWFA. There is a trough of low pressure that will move onshore into California late in the day. The upper low and the trough axis will quickly move from northern California, all the way south to southern Nevada. The low will not pull in additional moisture and precipitation amounts will be on the light side due to the rapidity of the movement. The upper low feature will continue to pull south, moving over the CA/NV/AZ common border. Pacific high pressure will quickly envelop northern and central Nevada.
657 AM EDT Sun Sep 22 2019 High pressure will prevail early this week.
A weakening cold front was moving southward from the central plains into the Texas Panhandle and will pass through most of the South Plains area by early afternoon, and the southern Rolling Plains later in the afternoon. For tonight, flow aloft will back again behind a low amplitude upper ridge axis and as the next Pacific upper low digs sharply south-southeast into the western Great Basin and desert southwest. Considerable lingering surface moisture with cooler low temperatures and perhaps partial clearing may be enough for patchy ground fog to develop.
703 AM EDT Sun Sep 22 2019 High pressure will prevail early this week.
320 AM MDT Sun Sep 22 2019 An upper level trough was exiting nern CO early this morning, with some lingering precip, over the far nern plains.
South winds will be elevated at 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 25 knots, especially over the higher elevations of the Ouachitas and the Ozarks. Through the day on Sunday, the cold front will approach northern AR, however as it does so it begins to slow as it loses momentum due to H500 riding located across the northern Gulf Coast. High temperatures today will top out in the mid 80s north, around 90 central, to the lower 90s across the south. High temperatures will climb into the lower to middle 80s across northern and central AR, meanwhile lower 90s are expected across the southern several rows of counties. Aloft, troughing exits the region to the east with brief ridging building in ushering in a cold front across the northern half of the state.
739 AM EDT Sun Sep 22 2019 An area of high pressure centered over the Outer Banks area will drift east and allow a cold front to approach Pennsylvania from the Ohio Valley.
358 AM MDT Sun Sep 22 2019 trough aloft passing over the region.
445 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2019 (Today and Tonight) Upper level trough will lift east-northeast from the Southwest US across the Southern Plains during the next 24 hours. More cloud cover will again keep temperatures down a few more degrees, holding in the lower 90s for most areas.
649 AM EDT Sun Sep 22 2019 High pressure at the surface and aloft will dominate through Monday.
An upper level trough emerging from the Northern/Central Rockies has maintained a moderate low level jet to produce a few streamer showers along and east of I-35. A combination of the trough moving across the Northern Plains and the normal diurnal cycle weakens the low level jet ending any streamer showers by late morning. The seabreeze and heating may generate showers and thunderstorms this afternoon, however with the Subtropical Ridge overhead and a slightly drier airmass, areal coverage will be only isolated and near the Coastal Plains. An upper level trough off the Pacific Northwest will deepen across the western states to the California/Arizona border area by Monday afternoon while a weak inverted trough moves west into northeastern Mexico to weaken the Ridge slightly.
Radar and lightning trends would suggest this activity will gradually diminish through late morning, as the low level jet weakens. Synoptic cold front is located across north central into southwest Kansas from Salina to just south of Dodge City.
932 AM EDT Sun Sep 22 2019 A ridge of high pressure will continue to extend from the Carolinas offshore across the Atlantic waters with the pressure gradient south of the ridge supporting breezy ENE onshore winds today.
1031 AM EDT Sun Sep 22 2019 Mid to upper-level ridging centered over the northern Gulf Coast reaches northeast into the eastern United States. A high pressure cell centered over the extreme western North Atlantic stretches west to the southern Appalachians. From synopsis, strong northeast to east breezes will continue across the Florida Keys coastal waters this afternoon, between high pressure over the Southeast United States and lower pressure over the western Caribbean.
A cold front will bring unsettled weather and a wind shift to the TAF sites today. Extensive region of showers and thunderstorms in western and central Oklahoma oriented along the low level jet has begun to move into parts of eastern Oklahoma over the past hour or so. Additional development is expected during the early afternoon ahead of the approaching cold front, likely near and south of Interstate 44. The overall convective potential will sag southward tonight, with cooler and drier air briefly moving in behind the front.
Showers and thunderstorms will linger through this morning as we await the passage of the aforementioned upper level trough. Light and variable winds and fair skies should help morning lows dip into the lower 50s.
Monday will be dry and warmer with a return to light southerly winds. Highs should be back above normal in the lower to mid 80s.
1031 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2019 Main upper low centered over ND this morning, with smaller embedded vort maxima over western SD. Temperatures under the upper trough will only top out near 70. Upper ridging will build in on Monday pushing temps back up into the upper 70s.
Temperatures this hour ranged from the mid 80s to the low 90s.
134 PM MDT Sun Sep 22 2019 Water vapor shows upper low over the Northern Plains, ridge over the Northern Rockies, and next trof moving onshore the Pac NW. A few lingering showers across the CWFA early this afternoon in associated with upper trof. Dry and much warmer weather is expected for Monday with upper ridge building overhead.
Much cooler air will filter into western Kansas through tonight in wake of this morning's cold frontal passage.
Various CAM solutions suggest a modest uptick by late afternoon/early evening convection as the cold front nears, with a few strong/severe storms possible given the rather strong layered flow. The best chances of convection will shift to far southeast OK later tonight into Monday morning, with cooler/drier air briefly moving into northeast OK/northwest AR.
Taper both areas of showers by 00z as a transitory upper ridge begins to move onto the High Plains and daytime heating abates. Went with cooler end of guidance for min temps, generally lower 40s along the Pine Ridge to upper 40s north central (and mid 40s in between), which is right around normal. Temperatures should rebound nicely into the lower 80s given early sunshine, southerly near surface winds, and notable WAA at H85. The pattern for the rest of the week can be characterized by the strong northern stream bounded by the Hudson Bay low sagging south into the Dakotas, while a couple cold fronts cross the central Plains.
123 PM EDT Sun Sep 22 2019 High pressure will prevail early this week.
1058 AM MDT Sun Sep 22 2019 trough aloft passing over the region.
Later tonight, skies should slowly begin to clear as a cold front works it way southward.
218 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2019 A much quieter day across the region today as the upper trough responsible for yesterday and last night's heavy rainfall has progressed eastward into the Plains and dampened with southward extent. Monday, another trough will begin digging southward across the Great Basin, resulting in a brief period of weak ridging over West Texas and Southeast New Mexico between this trough and the departing trough.
Tonight and Monday The latest RAP analysis and satellite/radar imagery show a cold front slowly moving east over eastern WI early this morning.
219 PM EDT Sun Sep 22 2019 An area of high pressure centered off the Mid Atlantic coast will drift east and allow a cold front to approach Pennsylvania from the Ohio Valley.
347 PM EDT Sun Sep 22 2019 Temperatures will gradually warm through mid week, as Tropical Storm Jerry passes well offshore and a weak cold front drops into the Carolinas.
Temperatures have climbed into the upper 80s to around 90 degrees in most locations (except the higher elevations of northeastern Alabama). Increasing moisture advection is expected tonight ahead of an approaching cold front currently stretching from Wisconsin southwest into central Texas.
Upper ridging will dominate from late tomorrow onward into late week, but that will not fully squash rain chances as moisture will still be available if disturbances move across the upper ridge. Many of these disturbances could come from the upper low progged to move from the Pacific Northwest to southern CA/AZ.
The upper level low will continue its march eastward allowing high pressure to build and cooler air to seep in though temperatures are still above normal for this time of year.
A chance for showers and thunderstorms will increase overnight ahead of a cold front that will cross the region early Monday. Mid level trof moving into the Upper MS Valley by evening and then east across the Great Lakes tonight/Monday. Period starts with a confluent northwest flow aloft on the western flank of an upper trough positioned along the Atlantic Coast.
Main upper low centered over ND this morning, with smaller embedded vort maxima over western SD. Temperatures under the upper trough will only top out near 70. Upper ridging will build in on Monday pushing temps back up into the upper 70s.
309 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2019 This afternoon a cold front is moving through the CWA and as of 3PM is generally along the I-35 corridor. High pressure will remain over the area through the day Monday with very comfortable and seasonable highs in the mid 70s.
For this afternoon/evening, a cold front (currently across northern Oklahoma), will continue to move southward. The cold front is expected to stall along the Red River tomorrow with a continued chance for showers/storms across southern Oklahoma and north Texas.
High pressure nosing in will bring cooler and drier air into the state tonight through Monday.
212 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2019 Light westerlies beginning to pick up as the southward upper high suppression continues.
High pressure situated over the mid-Atlantic states is producing light easterly winds around 5 knots on its southern periphery.
248 PM EDT Sun Sep 22 2019 Mid to upper-level ridging centered over the northern Gulf Coast reaches northeast into the eastern United States. A high pressure cell centered over the extreme western North Atlantic stretches west to the southern Appalachians. The potent short wave currently spreading east through the Plains will squash the mean-layer ridging centered over the northern Gulf Coast tonight and Monday. The lower tropospheric anticyclone will retreat to the south in tandem with its upper level support.
339 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2019 A couple isolated showers have popped up over the past hour or two across central SD with the main upper low circulation still over the Dakotas. On Monday, upper level ridging builds across the northern plains, with 850 mb temps rising through the teens Celsius. With the warm air advection and warmer air mass in place, we'll see a bump in temperatures as highs reach the mid 70s to around 80 degrees for most locations.
Due to increasing instability/CAPE, the wave/inverted trough and low level moisture convergence on Monday, am expecting more thunderstorms to develop than has been seen today.
The few cumulus clouds we have over the higher mountains and Cheyenne Ridge should be all we get, and they may even diminish as the afternoon goes on. An upper level trough was exiting nern CO early this morning, with some lingering precip, over the far nern plains.
336 PM EDT Sun Sep 22 2019 An area of high pressure centered off the Mid Atlantic coast will drift east and allow a cold front to approach Pennsylvania from the Ohio Valley.
Water vapor imagery showing upper trough beginning to move into western MN with vorticity extension/PIVA moving into southwest MN at this time. As the upper low continues to move east overnight, expect clouds to thin some from the west and showers to end into west central WI shortly after 06z Mon. Lows Monday night should range in the low to mid 50s.
A cold front located across IL/MO/KS today will be the primary feature of the short term period, tracking toward the area tonight and tomorrow and crossing the area Monday night. Midlevel clouds will increase Monday with this trough feature but low levels remain quite dry.
Cold front may be a focus for renewed convective development this afternoon. The cold front has pushed south of a line from KEMP/KICT/KGAG as of midday. Radar and lightning trends would suggest this activity will gradually diminish through late morning, as the low level jet weakens. Synoptic cold front is located across north central into southwest Kansas from Salina to just south of Dodge City.
253 PM MDT Sun Sep 22 2019 A quiet evening & overnight period ahead w/ short wave ridging now in place across southeast WY and the western NE Panhandle.
The brief period of ridging and nice weather ends tonight.