Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ANALYSES/GFS AND NAM STREAMLINE OUTPUT DEPICT THE UPPER TROUGH WITH N-S AXIS NEAR THE RIO GRANDE. THE GFS/NAM DETERMINISTIC PREDICT THIS TROUGH TO MOVE SLOWLY WESTWARD DRG THE PERIOD WITH ASSOCIATED WEAK 700-300MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE MOVG WEST OF THE CWA BY TUESDAY AFTN.
146 PM EDT MON JUN 22 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES TODAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH EASTERN CANADA. THIS SYSTEM WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY THE TRAILING COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY.
THIS LINE DRIFTING SLOWLY NORTHWARD AS IT IS ANCHORED TO A WARM FRONT/TROUGH. MODELS FORECAST INCREASING ELEVATED INSTABILITY TO GO ALONG WITH THE HIGH BULK SHEAR OVER 60KTS. THE TRAILING COLD FRONT OF THE MAIN SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING THROUGH FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WILL WE HAVE TIME TO RECOVER FROM THE MORNING ACTIVITY WITH ENOUGH INSTABILITY? THE HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD FOR THIS WILL BE OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST AND EAST COUNTIES OF OUR SERVICE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE A DRY DAY ON TUESDAY.
343 PM EDT MON JUN 22 2015 FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE ENERGY EMBEDDED WITHIN A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER AND GREAT LAKES WILL BATTLE AGAINST AN ELONGATED AND FLAT RIDGE THAT WILL ATTEMPT TO NOSE ITS WAY INTO THE TN VALLEY REGION DURING THE SHORT TERM. A SFC COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MANAGE TO DIG ITS WAY SOUTHWARD INTO THE COMMONWEALTH BEFORE STALLING OUT JUST TO OUR SOUTH BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.
COLD FRONT THAT CAME THROUGH US THIS MORNING HAS PUSHED SOUTH AND IS CURRENTLY LAYING ALONG THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE. THE HIGH THEN BEGINS TO MOVE EAST DURING THE DAY. THE GFS KEEPS THE LOWER LAYERS DRY.
A STRONG UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD EAST FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS DEEPER MOISTURE COMBINED WITH A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING AROUND THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE UPPER RIDGE HAS TOUCHED OFF AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF WEST TENNESSEE AND NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL DOWN TO NEAR GUIDANCE WHICH IS A LITTLE COOLER THAN WHAT WE HAD BEEN GOING FOR.
AND HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL SHIFT EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE MS/TN VALLEY REGIONS TUESDAY.
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN TONIGHT AND BRING BETTER CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS. SPC HAS THE HIGHEST THREAT THERE. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE WARM WITH THE CLOUDS AROUND AND COOLER AIR NOT MOVING IN UNTIL LATE.
ELONGATED RIDGE FROM THE WEST DOES BEGIN AN ATTEMPT AT NOSING ITS WAY BACK INTO OUR AREA TODAY WHICH COULD EXPLAIN THE DISCONTINUITY IN NEAR TERM SOLUTIONS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY. THE LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS/STORMS IS MUCH LESS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY AS MID LEVEL CAPPING BEGINS TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH THE BUILDING RIDGE GAINING INFLUENCE ON OUR WEATHER. BUT A COLD FRONT WILL BE DROPPING SOUTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY DURING THE DAY. THE FORECAST LONG WAVE PATTERN WILL BEGIN WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE GRADUALLY DAMPENING AS IT HEADS EAST ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WITH RIDGING BECOMING ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. WITH TROUGHING IN THE EAST.
A narrow h7 vorticity lobe is likely passing across the eastern NE/western IA portion of the cold front. The cold front is expected to reach the far southwestern counties before stalling Tuesday morning. Cooler temperatures expected tomorrow due to most of the CWA being under an easterly surface wind and a good deal of cloud cover.
428 PM EDT MON JUN 22 2015 THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL AFFECT THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
LEFT AN ISOLATED MENTION OF A THUNDERSTORM WITH SBCAPES OVER 3K AND CONVECTIVE TEMPS INTO THE LOWER 90S. THE HIGHEST HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE ACROSS THE BLACK BELT REGION.
300 PM EDT MON JUN 22 2015 FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE ENERGY EMBEDDED WITHIN A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER AND GREAT LAKES WILL BATTLE AGAINST AN ELONGATED AND FLAT RIDGE THAT WILL ATTEMPT TO NOSE ITS WAY INTO THE TN VALLEY REGION DURING THE SHORT TERM. A SFC COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MANAGE TO DIG ITS WAY SOUTHWARD INTO THE COMMONWEALTH BEFORE STALLING OUT JUST TO OUR SOUTH BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.
A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS SETTLES IN TODAY AND TUESDAY. IT DOES APPEAR THAT A WESTERN CONUS RIDGE SETS UP BY THE WEEKEND. PLACING THE NORTHERN PLAINS BACK INTO A COOLER NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN.
MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THIS WEEK AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES AND AN INVERTED TROUGH MOVES INTO MEXICO. THIS INVERTED TROUGH WILL AID IN PUSHING DEEPER MOISTURE INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AROUND THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
231 PM EDT MON JUN 22 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES TODAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH EASTERN CANADA. THIS SYSTEM WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY THE TRAILING COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY.
THERE WILL BE A THERMAL RIDGE SO TEMPS SHOULD WARM FROM MONDAYS HIGHS.
THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW LEVEL JET DOES BEND TO A WSW DIRECTION AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT BY 12Z.
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. /ISSUED 319 AM CDT MON JUN 22 2015/ LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WITH RAP 500 MB ANALYSIS OVERLAY SHOWS A 596 DM UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTERED OVER CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. THE POSITION OF UPPER HIGH MAY ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE ANOTHER COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE WHAT OCCURRED YESTERDAY. THROUGH MID WEEK THE UPPER RIDGE WILL DRIFT EAST AND FLATTEN.
AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT MOVED THROUGH THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING.
406 PM EDT MON JUN 22 2015 CROSSING COLD FRONT WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
WAS SUPPORTING A WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTHWARD THROUGH KANSAS.
1239 PM CDT MON JUN 22 2015 UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE AND NEW INFORMATION ADDED TO UPDATE SECTION WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. COLD FRONT EXPECTED MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. AFTER THAT GOES BY THERE SHOULD BE SOME CLEARING OF THE ANVIL CLOUDS AND THE WARM FRONT SHOULD MOVE TO THE NORTH AND BRING MID TO UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS INTO OUR FORECAST AREA ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S. THIS SHOULD CREATE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE A SCATTERED TO BROKEN LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.
IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S. PATTERN CHANGE LATER THIS WEEK IN RESPONSE TO A LONG WAVE TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE U.
UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD EASTWARD OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY. COASTAL LOCATIONS WILL BE IN THE LOW/MID 90S.
1259 PM CDT MON JUN 22 2015 HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WITH DRIER AIRMASS ACROSS THE AREA.
MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER NORTHEAST MEXICO JUST ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE WILL SLOWLY TRANSLATE WESTWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD. AND THUS HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE FIRST 6 HOURS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS A RESULT.
222 PM MDT MON JUN 22 2015 WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOWS BROAD 597DM RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHER PLAINS WITH ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN US. WITH POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA. WITH PRIMARY CONVERGENCE ALONG PRE FRONTAL TROUGH IN SW KANSAS.
424 PM CDT MON JUN 22 2015 A WEAK SFC COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED INTO FAR NWRN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON.
FARTHER SOUTH ALONG THE COLD FRONT. TONIGHT'S LOW TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED AS WE MIGHT END UP A BIT COOLER THAN THE CURRENT FORECAST GIVEN THE CLEARING. SUBSIDENCE AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING IN ACROSS THE REGION.
MAX TEMPS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO GET INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S THIS AFTERNOON.
A COOLING TREND THROUGH MIDWEEK AS THE RIDGE OVER THE AREA MOVES EAST. HEIGHT FALLS ACCOUNT FOR THE SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS INLAND. BUT THE ONSHORE GRADIENT DRIVING THE WIND IS MUCH LESS STRONG THAN YESTERDAY SO SOME COASTAL AREAS ARE ACTUALLY AS WARM OR A BIT WARMER. AS THE UPPER HIGH CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST. A WEAK BUT BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO NRN CALIFORNIA BREAKING DOWN THE RIDGE SLIGHTLY ON TUESDAY.
WITH A COLD FRONT BRINGING RAIN CHANCES BACK TO THE REGION BY THIS WEEKEND. A WEAK COLD FRONT CAN BE SEEN MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN KS. A MID TO UPPER RIDGE WILL ALSO MOVE OVERHEAD TOMORROW. THE WARMEST AFTERNOON HIGHS TUES WILL LIKELY RESIDE UNDER THIS RIDGE ACROSS NORTHERN OK.
AS HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS THIS WEEK. A FEW OF THE WARMEST SPOTS COULD SEE TEMPERATURES APPROACH THE LOWER 90S. GRADUAL WARMING IS LIKELY AS THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN CONUS STRENGTHENS A BIT OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CA.
zonal flow prevailing across much of the Lower 48 as stout ridging remains in place over the southwestern U. latest MSAS analysis places an area of low pressure along the South Dakota/Nebraska border. this low will track east into the upper Mississippi Rvr Vly with its associated cold front expected to approach our region during the late afternoon hours. gusty south winds will continue the "blow torch" effect across the Central Plains and Lwr Missouri Vly with initial concerns focused on heat as low 70 degree dewpoints combine with temps in the low to mid 90s. modest convergence into the approaching cold front combined with steep mid-level lapse and strongly unstable conditions will set the stage for another round of convection later this afternoon and evening.
603 PM CDT Wed May 6 2015 Mid level trough currently negatively tilted over the Central Plains is moving through the area, and is responsible for the scattered showers that have formed over the forecast area this afternoon. Even with the better instability, wind shear will be on the lower end, with 20 to 30 knots of deep shear anticipated.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC THURSDAY.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER OREGON THIS EVENING WILL CONTINUE SOUTH TONIGHT. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OFFSHORE THURSDAY BRINGING A STRETCH OF SUNNY AND WARMER WEATHER TO WESTERN WASHINGTON.
900 PM EDT WED MAY 6 2015 UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE THE START OF THE WEEKEND WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON. MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. NO ANTICIPATING THESE OUTFLOWS TO TRIGGER ANY FURTHER CONVECTION AS LATEST MESOANALYSIS SHOWS INSTABILITY DECREASING SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE LOWEST 100MB AND BASED ON RADAR RETURNS THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ONLY EXTEND TO ROUGHLY BETWEEN 2-2. THERE WILL BE A LESSER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW AS RIDGING BUILDS IN ACROSS THE REGION. THE STORY WILL REMAIN MUCH THE SAME THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS THE REGION REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE.
/ISSUED 312 PM EDT WED MAY 6 2015/ UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE FORECAST AREA IN THE SHORT TERM BUT IT DOES BREAK DOWN WITH APPROACHING TROPICAL SYSTEM. WITH THE LOCATION OF THE RIDGE OVER THE REGION. INSTABILITIES DO INCREASE A BIT THU ACROSS THAT AREA BUT NOTHING MAJOR WITH HIGH PRESSURE KEEP THINGS SUBDUED. BUT ALL ARE POINTING TO SOME DEGREE OF DEEPENING AS THE LOW DRIFTS NORTH ALONG OR JUST OFF THE GA/SC COAST.
741 PM EDT WED MAY 6 2015 A DIFFUSE NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL OHIO WILL DRIFT NORTH OVERNIGHT AND DISSIPATE AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES.
TEMPERATURES ARE RANGING FROM THE LOW TO MID 60S IN MOST LOCATIONS WITH DEWPOINTS HOVERING IN THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60 DEGREES. THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY INTO THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING UP INTO THE LOW 90S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA BY THE WEEKEND.
THE HIGH PRESSURE DOME OVER MID APPALACHIA WILL GRADUALLY BREAK DOWN DURING THE SHORT TERM TIME FRAME.
THE STRONG LOW THAT MOVED OVER THE AREA LAST NIGHT AND THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE MOVING INTO THE HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT.
910 PM PDT Wed May 6 2015 Low pressure dropping southward from the Pacific Northwest will bring a chance for showers and thunderstorms, mainly to the mountains through the end of the week.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE MID SOUTH THIS EVENING WITH ALL OF THE STORMY WEATHER REMAINING OVER THE PLAINS STATES. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 80S.
632 PM MDT WED MAY 6 2015 THE STRONG LOW THAT MOVED OVER THE AREA LAST NIGHT AND THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE MOVING INTO THE HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT.
929 PM EDT WED MAY 6 2015 A DIFFUSE NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL OHIO WILL DRIFT NORTH OVERNIGHT AND DISSIPATE AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES.
1007 PM EDT WED MAY 6 2015 MID/UPPER RIDGE HOLDS IN PLACE WITH WEAK STEERING FLOW. AS WE REMAIN UNDER THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. FLOW AROUND MID LEVEL RIDGE CENTER NR HTS-CRW SHOULD ALLOW THE CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES TO MOVE WEST. UPPER RIDGE HOLDS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. WITH WARM AND HUMID AIR IN PLACE AS AREA REMAINS IN THE WARM SECTOR OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE WEST.
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI 725 PM EDT WED MAY 6 2015 AVIATION WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED THURSDAY. AS HIGHS REACH THE LOWER 80S.
1139 PM CDT Wed May 6 2015 Mid level trough currently negatively tilted over the Central Plains is moving through the area, and is responsible for the scattered showers that have formed over the forecast area this afternoon. Even with the better instability, wind shear will be on the lower end, with 20 to 30 knots of deep shear anticipated.
OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST INTO THIS WEEKEND. A THERMAL TROUGH NEAR THE COAST WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.
FLOW IS GENERALLY S TO SW WITH A KICKER UPR LVL TROF AXIS SWINGING NWD FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MID-MISS RIVER VALLEY REGION. THE CURRENT PRECIP IS MAINLY DUE TO A WEAKER UPR LVL TROF DISTURBANCE AND THE WMFNT. AS THE LARGER TROF AXIS TO THE SW APPROACHES DURING THE PRE-DAWN HRS.
1029 PM EDT WED MAY 6 2015 EVENING SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS A BROAD LOW PRESSURE CENTER (1013 MILLIBARS) LOCATED ABOUT 200 MILES EAST OF JACKSONVILLE BEACH. THIS LOW IS LARGELY DEVOID OF CONVECTION. AS LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE CONTINUES MOVING NORTHWARD. AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES FROM THE SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION TO THE NORTHEAST. WITH NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS OF 20-25 KNOTS BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY ON THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE MOVES NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE CAROLINAS.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S.
640 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2015 AREAS OF SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION AS UPPER WAVES EJECT FROM THE MAIN UPPER LOW. BUT WILL LEAVE THE HIGHER POPS SINCE MOST AREAS WILL RECEIVE PRECIP AT SOME POINT. WILL WAIT FOR THE NEXT UPDATE TO FINE TUNE THE HIGHER POPS FOR LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS THE MAIN UPPER WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. LOOK FOR NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS TO PICK UP THURSDAY AFTN IN ERN ND AS COOLER AIR MOVES IN. SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A NORTH BREEZE AND LOWS MID 30S TO LOWER 40S. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR WILL DROP SOUTH AND EAST BEHIND DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM BUT HOW FAR SOUTH WILL DRY AIR MAKE IT IS QUESTIONABLE.
1028 PM EDT WED MAY 6 2015 CURRENTLY - AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS CONTRIBUTING TO THE FORMATION OF A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE OFF THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST. THE KEYS ARE NOW WITHIN THE DESCENDING BRANCH OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO FILL IN TO THE EAST OF THE INVERTED TROUGH. THERE HAS BEEN SOME RECENT THUNDER ALONG THE INVERTED TROUGH SO CAN NOT RULE OUT THUNDER FOR BISMARCK YET LATE THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT IS JUST ENTERING FAR NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. WITH DEWPOINTS CLIMBING INTO THE LOW 60S. BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT. NORTHERLY WINDS WINDS WILL BRING IN COOLER AIR TO NORTH DAKOTA. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY FALL INTO THE THE LOW TO MID 30S. AND THESE CLOUDS MAY PREVENT LOW TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING BELOW FREEZING.
723 PM EDT WED MAY 6 2015 UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE THE START OF THE WEEKEND WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON. MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THIS BOUNDARY AND WESTERLY/UPSLOPE FLOW ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO OUR EAST SHOULD PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WITH A LESSER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE TOMORROW AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD. THE STORY WILL REMAIN MUCH THE SAME THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS THE REGION REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE.
BUT EXPECT THE HIGHER LOCALIZED GUSTS TO REMAIN RELATIVELY SHORT LIVED.
Will include the lower ceilings at all but KCNM and KPEQ, with temporary IFR ceilings at KHOB and KMAF in addition to high end MVFR visibility in fog at KHOB.
1149 PM EDT WED MAY 6 2015 AVIATION WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED THURSDAY. AS HIGHS REACH THE LOWER 80S.
THE UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER OREGON WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE TO WATCH AS IT DIVES SOUTH THROUGH THURSDAY. ESPECIALLY FROM BURNS TO BAKER CITY WHICH WILL BE FURTHEST AWAY FROM THE UPPER LOW AND IN THE DRIER AIR MASS.
AREAS OF SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION AS UPPER WAVES EJECT FROM THE MAIN UPPER LOW. BUT WILL LEAVE THE HIGHER POPS SINCE MOST AREAS WILL RECEIVE PRECIP AT SOME POINT. WILL WAIT FOR THE NEXT UPDATE TO FINE TUNE THE HIGHER POPS FOR LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS THE MAIN UPPER WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. LOOK FOR NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS TO PICK UP THURSDAY AFTN IN ERN ND AS COOLER AIR MOVES IN. SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A NORTH BREEZE AND LOWS MID 30S TO LOWER 40S. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR WILL DROP SOUTH AND EAST BEHIND DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM BUT HOW FAR SOUTH WILL DRY AIR MAKE IT IS QUESTIONABLE.
A STATIONARY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER OREGON WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS AND THIS TREND WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT.
AND WITH LOW-LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION ALONG THE LOW-LEVEL JET AXIS. HOWEVER WITH THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN. TEMPS OVERNIGHT WILL BE WARMER DUE TO THIS EXTRA MOISTURE PARTICULARLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST TX PANHANDLE WHERE MIN TEMPS WILL ONLY DROP DOWN TO THE LOW 60S. THE EXTRA MOISTURE ALSO MEANS CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA PREVENTING DAYTIME TEMPS TOMORROW FROM GOING MUCH BEYOND THE LOWER 80S.
AND SHORT TERM GUIDANCE SUGGEST LOWS REACHING DOWN INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S ACROSS THE EAST. WHILE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD ACROSS THE REGION.
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM THE SOUTHEAST SK/SOUTHWEST MB AREA INTO NORTHWEST KS THIS AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS TONIGHT.
730 PM EDT WED MAY 6 2015 MID/UPPER RIDGE HOLDS IN PLACE WITH WEAK STEERING FLOW. AS WE REMAIN UNDER THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. FLOW AROUND MID LEVEL RIDGE CENTER NR HTS-CRW SHOULD ALLOW THE CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES TO MOVE WEST. UPPER RIDGE HOLDS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. WITH WARM AND HUMID AIR IN PLACE AS AREA REMAINS IN THE WARM SECTOR OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE WEST.
SHOULD AGAIN SEE A QUICK RETURN TO THE LOW STRATUS ACROSS E TX BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND IS WORKING ITS WAY EAST ON THE NORTH SIDE OF A WARM FRONT. THE FRONT APPEARED TO EXTEND ALONG A LINE FROM BRECKENRIDGE TO PALESTINE DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A TRANSITION FROM THE ELEVATED STORMS NORTH OF THE I-20 REGION TO SURFACE BASED CONVECTION SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. THE WARMER AIRMASS SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY WILL KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES OVERNIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES OR SO COOLER ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE FRONT. THIS WILL SEND A COLD FRONT SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY.
THE LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL CONTINUE TO BE SHEARED APART. BACK DOOR COLD FRONT TRACKING THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING POTENTIALLY TRIGGERING SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS.
UPPER TROUGH AXIS AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP BEGINS TO SHIFT SOUTHWEST AND WILL BE APPROACHING THE CWA BY 12Z THURSDAY. WILL GRADUALLY SEE AN INCREASE IN PRECIP CHANCES FURTHER SOUTHWEST INTO THE JAMES VALLEY AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS CONTINUES TO SLIDE SOUTHWEST. MODELS AGREE FAIRLY WELL IN EVENTUALLY FEATURING A CLOSER UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY MID DAY FRIDAY WITH CONTINUED CHANCES FOR LIGHT PRECIP OVER THE CWA.
1210 AM MDT THU MAR 17 2016 AN UNSETTLED WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM OVER THE FORECAST AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE SITS OFF THE WEST COAST. IT APPEARS THAT THIS WAVE WILL BE JUST A LITTLE WARMER THAN THE WAVE LAST NIGHT THAT BROUGHT ROUGHLY 6-12 INCHES TO THESE MOUNTAINS. MODELS DIP SOME COOLER AIR INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY. COOLER AIRMASS.
WHILE THE LOWER ELEVATIONS CONTINUE TO DEAL WITH GUSTY WINDS. THE BIGGER CONCERN ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE WIND. UNTIL THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AND CHANGES THE AIRMASS. WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND BANKING UP ACROSS THE EASTERN MTS THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. CURRENT GRIDS HAVE A FEW INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER PEAKS OF THE CENTRAL MTS. WITH THE PASSING COLD FRONT AND DEVELOPING UPSLOPE FLOW. WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER 30S TO LOWER 40S ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS AND IN THE 20S TO 40S ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE IN THE FORECAST UNTIL AFTER A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH OUR AREA ON FRIDAY.
This will help push a cold front south across thw area as well which will usher in below normal temperatures for a change.
Strong upper ridge will control the NorCal weather through the week.
335 AM EDT THU MAR 17 2016 STRONG LOW PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL TRACK EAST AND MERGE WITH A COASTAL LOW OFF NEW ENGLAND COAST THIS EVENING. THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKES FRIDAY. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT MOVING THE LOW CENTERED OVER LAKE SUPERIOR EAST TODAY. TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL SWING ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKES FRIDAY.
252 AM CDT THU MAR 17 2016 LOW PRESSURE THAT GAVE THE AREA HEAVY RAIN/GUSTY WINDS/SNOW OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS WAS CENTERED JUST NORTH OF MARQUETTE MI OVER SOUTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/RAP ANALYSIS SHOWING ELONGATED E/W CLOSED LOW ROTATING SOUTHWARD FROM UPPER MI THROUGH NORTHERN MN/ND. CLOUDY ACROSS THE AREA WITH TEMPERATURES AS OF 2 AM IN THE LOWER 30S ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. WILL SEE THAT MID-LEVEL CLOSED LOW/TROUGH SWING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. ISOLATED RAIN CHANGING OVER TO SNOW SHOWERS LINGER ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AS THAT TROUGH CONTINUES TO SINK SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION.
656 AM EDT THU MAR 17 2016 STRONG LOW PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL TRACK EAST AND MERGE WITH A COASTAL LOW OFF NEW ENGLAND COAST THIS EVENING. THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKES FRIDAY. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT MOVING THE LOW CENTERED OVER LAKE SUPERIOR EAST TODAY. TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL SWING ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKES FRIDAY.
MVFR, and at times IFR, ceilings and MVFR visibility will affect KMAF through 17/15Z before north to northeast winds behind a cold front lift/dissipate the lower conditions. KINK could also be temporarily affected by the lower ceilings/visibility thru 17/14Z also. /issued 435 AM CDT THU MAR 17 2016/ A broad upper level trough is centered over the Upper Midwest with westerly flow over the CWA. A cold front is beginning to move into the area which will cool temperatures today closer to normal values. Another stronger cold front is expected to push into the area during the day on Friday resulting in high temperatures ranging from the lower 60s across the Western Low Rolling Plains to the 80s across the Rio Grande Valley.
354 AM CDT THU MAR 17 2016 WARM FRONT JUST TO THE NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA TO REMAIN IN THAT AREA TODAY.
INCREASING WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL RESULT IN INCREASING MOISTURE ALOFT. WHILE LOWS TONIGHT RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S TO AROUND 60. SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES LOOK ON TAP FOR FRIDAY.