Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
One or more low pressure systems are expected to develop off the mid Atlantic coast midweek and currently look to pass far enough south of our area to keep us dry. Light freezing spray was included for the marine forecast update as well.
dry conditions are expected to persist thru the day today with region in between high pressure to the east and an approaching surface/upper low currently moving thru the Rockies. Weak instability out ahead of the low continues to give the chance for thunder for the area. as the lows transition eastward.
Currently quiet across the CWA ahead of an upper trough with two circulation centers, one over western Montana and the other over the southern Nevada area. Lee cyclone will deepen over southeastern Colorado today allowing for cooler air to push south across the CWA.
A weak cold front moved through the area yesterday and is expected to stall to our south this morning, eventually lifting back north this afternoon and overnight as a warm front. This convection looks to be the response from mid-level frontogenesis along the warm front aloft which tilts back over the cooler air mass. Hodographs east of a Pacific cold front suggest the potential for supercells but any storms that initiate should move quickly into middle TN and north AL. The cold front will move across the Mid-South during the late morning and afternoon, ending thunderstorms from west to east and advecting much drier air into the region. Additional moisture will wrap around the cyclone Monday night resulting in light rain showers or perhaps drizzle.
A weak area of high pressure to our north will control our weather for today. Temperatures will be cooler than yesterday with highs in the 60s. A closer look at the mslp structure indicates a west to east elongation as the low tracks directly over the mid state. However, the associated upper low will move across northern areas of the mid state.
These echoes are moving north along an inverted trough axis over the western Panhandle. southeast flow and upslope along the trough axis. Winds shift to the north through the evening and with upper support and cooler air moving in a changeover to snow through the late evening. The primary forecast challenge deals with the winter weather event stemming from a closed upper low crossing the central/southern Plains Sunday into Monday. Northwest flow then takes over aloft as a ridge builds across the Western U. The ridge then breaks down, bringing the next chance of precip. The closed upper low is slated to reach the Ozarks by midday, but continuous moisture advection and mid level fgen over the central Plains keep precip in Neb. Despite CAA on the backside of the low, H85 temps remain relatively mild (around -3C by 00z).
The resulting low pressure system will slide through OK tonight and is expected to be near the OK/MO border by 12z Mon. Although the surface warm and cold fronts associated with this feature will remain south of the region, moisture convergence along the elevated warm frontal boundary will produce areas of showers and isolated thunderstorms from late afternoon through tonight. The rain will move into the area from southwest to northeast as the warm front lifts northward, and favorable LER jet dynamics aloft will provide additional lift after midnight. Temperatures will be 5-10 degrees warmer today across nearly all of the CWA. The presence of clouds tonight, as well as precipitation across at least the southwestern one-third to one-half of the CWA, will keep overnight lows around 5-7 degrees warmer than last night.
Patchy fog has also developed this morning with LFT and ARA seeing the lowest visibility restrictions. A cold front will begin to push through the area near the end of the TAF period and while confidence in timing is not high enough yet to flesh out the wind shift, it is worth noting that scattered showers and thunderstorms may begin to affect BPT around or just beyond 12Z Monday. deep troughing across the Western United States continued to migrate eastward allowing for disturbances to be kicked out into central Texas where development occurred last night and has now moved east into interior southeast Texas. A dry front then advances across the area Monday as low pressure tracks across the plains and thru the mid-Mississippi valley bringing a significant lowering of dew points on a westerly flow.
1119 AM CDT Sun Mar 18 2018 Water vapor satellite imagery and 12z upper air data indicate a strong short wave trough translating through AZ this morning with a much weaker wave over WTX. 15z surface analysis indicates low pressure centered over sern CO with a trough extending southward across ern NM into WTX.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 70 53 67 51 / 10 70 80 70 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 65 49 64 49 / 0 50 60 90 Oak Ridge, TN 65 49 63 49 / 0 60 80 80 Tri Cities Airport, TN 61 41 59 45 / 0 10 50 80.
We have issued a winter weather advisory for snow and light freezing drizzle for this afternoon, tonight and Monday morning. Consensus among models focus the highest snow amounts across the west and north central, from Dickinson northeast to Minot where 3 to 5 inches are forecast, with an isolated 6 inch amount possible. Temperatures are forecast to be a few degrees cooler today than previously thought, which will keep most of the precipitation as snow, although some rain will mix in at first across the south. Some patchy freezing drizzle is possible southwest today, then mainly snow tonight and Monday.
1113 AM EDT Sun Mar 18 2018 An unseasonably cold air mass will remain in place across the region through early this week as high pressure slowly builds to the south of the area.
The latest water vapor images revealed a large, complex upper low/trough over the western CONUS, with multiple circulation centers. An initially warm lower-troposphere will give way to cooling as the thermal ridge moves southeast. Else- where, a mix of rain and snow is expected, with some concern for a little freezing rain and sleet given the low-level warm layer. This will be something to watch for if freezing rain becomes the more dominant precipitation type.
Clouds clearing out of northern Mohave County revealing snowfield from the higher plateaus surrounding the Colorado River in central Mohave County northeast to Colorado City/Pipe Spring Natl Monument. Behind that wave, a weak ridge will build into the region, though it will be a "dirty" ridge with periods of mid and high cloud cover streaming through at times. Temperatures today will be ~10 degrees below normal behind the departing cold front, and will warm a few degrees Monday but remain cooler than normal.
909 AM PDT Sun Mar 18 2018 Rain and mountain snow will linger over the Idaho Panhandle today as a slow moving low pressure system exits the region.
Surface ridging will produce light winds across the Tennessee Valley today and tonight.
Very Warm Today and Tomorrow Ahead of A Strong Cold Front Recent obs overlaid on high resolution imagery from GOES-16 show low clouds and some fog across the west central peninsula, including parts of Lake, Osceola, and Okeechobee counties. Temperatures will warm into the low (coastal) to mid (inland) 80s, slightly cooler along the beaches behind the Atlantic sea breeze.
Satellite imagery shows the short wave trough from West Texas south into northern Coahuila. This short wave trough will continue to move northeast across North Texas this afternoon to near Arklatex region by early this evening. A weak extension of the short wave trough will move into South Texas this afternoon. Only thing is that pre-frontal troughs ahead of cold fronts at times can drop VSBYS a bit, but think that we will mainly see MVFR VSBYs eastern terminals with IFR/LIFR CIGS.
The clouds are keeping temperatures from falling with many locations in the lower 30s. The lowest visibility is confined to western SD at this time. Later this afternoon, an area of low pressure will strengthen over eastern Colorado.
Due to the cloud cover and light showers in the vicinity, temperatures are in the lower to mid 70s but with uncomfortable dewpoint readings near 70 degrees. Surface wise, a broad Western Atlantic ridge lies across the Florida peninsula, resulting in variable to east winds at 6 knots or less except near 10 knots on the Straits of Florida. Under partly to mostly sunny skies and light winds, high temperature should climb into the lower 80s in most island locations.
1029 AM EDT Sun Mar 18 2018 High pressure will maintain dry weather and seasonal temperature into Monday.
High pressure is sitting east of Florida with perfect boating conditions today.
High pressure moving east out of the upper OH Valley region will bring a dry day to the region to end the weekend. Main show in the short term will come as a mid level low pressure and associated surface front move east across the region Monday. the Surface warm front ahead of the low still looks as though it will stay down across cntrl TN, with the h850 low stretching from near PAH to BWG KY Monday afternoon.
And even if/when the low clouds erode, it looks likely that higher level clouds will be moving in.
By tonight an upper level trough pushes eastward out of the Rockies, and may see light rain and snow develop through south central SD overnight.
1109 AM EDT Sun Mar 18 2018 High pressure through Monday. Updated to lower afternoon temperatures starting with latest obs and few degrees lower than the high resolution arw models. A high pressure system moves in from the northwest today with mostly clear skies and light winds. The mid-March sunshine should help warm temperatures into the mid 50s across the lowlands and 40s to low 50s in the WV mountains. Southeasterly flow and moisture increases across the area early Monday out ahead of an approaching low pressure system. Low will move off to the east Monday evening, with colder air taking hold, and a change over to snow, particularly across the higher terrain, where light to moderate accumulations are expected.
The higher surface moisture and light wind will combine to create the potential for fog again overnight.
926 AM EDT Sun Mar 18 2018 Weak low pressure will move across the central Great Lakes today with a cold front crossing the region this evening. High pressure will then ridge into the area from Ontario as low pressure tracks eastward between the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys Monday and Monday night.
1005 AM EDT Sun Mar 18 2018 High pressure will maintain dry weather and seasonal temperature into Monday.
A few of the high resolution models are hinting at more widespread dense fog after 10Z so will need to monitor obs for the possibility of an advisory. Lowered highs today by a few degrees into the low and middle 50s due to the likelihood of cloud cover holding across far northeast and east central areas during the afternoon. As lee cyclogenesis commences with the upper low deepening over the KS and OK border during the evening hours, strong ascent in conjunction with steepening mid level lapse rates results in elevated CAPE at or less than 400 J/KG. Track of the low axis has slightly shifted further north, with a consensus for a few heavier downpours south of Interstate 70 after midnight when rain chances are highest.
Today Through Monday Night An area of convection is lifting slowly north into far SRN sections of the CWA early this Sun morning as an upper level disturbance rotates around the upper ridge over the state. but may be difficult to get downburst winds through the lower level inversion. with a cold frontal trough shifting east through the state by early Mon afternoon.
1000 AM PDT Sun Mar 18 2018 Fair weather will prevail through Monday with another cool day today, then slightly warmer Monday.
A trough juts west from here through the Alberta front range where it gains a pacific characteristic over southern British Columbia and the Pacific Northwest. Weak ridging over the southern US Rockies and southern US Plains contrasts this cold air in southwest flow that runs up into eastern Montana. Upstream a meso-ridge resides over northern BC with a meso-trough behind it in Yukon territory and the Alaskan Panhandle. Today through tonight: A closed low aloft has formed up in the southwest flow and is driving many of the mesoscale features over Montana including weak showers over low stratus. Monday through Monday night: By Monday a large chunk of the low stratus should begin lifting and dissipating as the northern BC meso-ridge moves through. Meanwhile a ridge off the coast of California will move inland.
Upper low is continuing to pull away from the region this morning. Showers mainly across the higher elevations. Upper trough situated over the area this morning continues to support snow showers, mainly in the Boise/West Central Mountains where a Winter Weather Advisory is in effect until noon. A weak upper ridge with drier conditions in southeast Oregon will move into southwest Idaho this evening. Limited moisture within a northwest flow aloft will be enough for a chance of snow showers over the higher terrain Monday afternoon, mainly in the north. The departing trough and weak ridging will result in a warming trend through Monday, although temperatures will remain slightly below normal.
Another warm day with above normal high temps in the lower 80s inland, upper 70s coast. Model guidance shows warm front slowly working northward over southern GA Tonight.
1058 AM CDT Sun Mar 18 2018 The low clouds do not appear to be going anywhere, and even the little bit of clearing in southwest Indiana is likely to disappear through the afternoon. High pressure moving east out of the upper OH Valley region will bring a dry day to the region to end the weekend. Main show in the short term will come as a mid level low pressure and associated surface front move east across the region Monday. the Surface warm front ahead of the low still looks as though it will stay down across cntrl TN, with the h850 low stretching from near PAH to BWG KY Monday afternoon.
1153 AM EDT Sun Mar 18 2018 SKC with wind gradually backing from WSW to WNW during the afternoon and turning NE overnight as high pressure transits Ontario. Weak high pressure will move from the Plains into the Ohio valley today while low pressure ripples along a polar front stalled over the northern Great Lakes. Low level temperature fields in the models indicate the flow will build the thermal ridge into central Lower Michigan early in the day and expand it southward through the afternoon. The NAM and GFS are closer to 850 mb which is the difference between high temps in the lower 50s versus the mid 50s suggested by the RAP. Prefer to lean the forecast toward the warmer end of the spectrum considering how temperatures responded to full mid March sun yesterday afternoon once the high clouds exited the region.
As it does a warm front will lift into a portion of southern KY. The low pressure system will be moving out on Monday night with rain ending for a short period.
High pressure aloft will return to the area tonight and remain through Sunday. Much drier air in its wake has brought and end to precipitation as well as allowed skies to clear out, with the exception of a little cloud cover banked along the higher terrain. Mid level ridging forecast to build across the area late tonight through Sunday should bump temps back above normal Sunday afternoon.
As with last night, temperature profiles indicate below freezing air near the surface across my far northern counties during the nighttime hours. After coordinating with northern neighbors, a Winter Weather Advisory for freezing rain will last from sunset through just after sunrise Sunday. For Sunday there is agreement in the system becoming better organized with a cold front settling south through the region during the afternoon and evening.
Latest satellite imagery depicts westerly flow downstream of a long wave trough over the Central Rockies. Water vapor imagery showed higher moisture continuing to advect in over the Central Plains ahead of the trough. During the latter half of the afternoon am still expecting the upper level short wave trough following the snow to split, with one piece moving northeast of the area and the other to the southwest. Sunday southwest winds will bring warmer air into the forecast area. Due to the expected snowfall today, trended the high on the cooler side of most model data.
732 PM EST Sat Feb 10 2018 High pressure in place across the area through the weekend will keep warm conditions in place with S/SE winds becoming S/SW in the afternoons. Current forecast is on track with all of this and temperatures are on track to fall into the lower to mid 60s. High pressure will keep this in place through the weekend.
1039 PM EST Sat Feb 10 2018 Currently - Deep layered is in place across the area, with a large Atlantic high extending a broad ridge across the Florida Peninsula and the Gulf of Mexico. Short Term Update - Ridging will remain in place across the Keys, keeping winds moderate out of the east to east southeast. This increased lower level lift will have to battle quite a bit of dry air through the lower levels. Expect overnight lows in the mid 70s with dew points creeping into the lower 70s. High pressure extending southwestward across the Florida Peninsula and the Gulf of Mexico will maintain moderate to fresh breezes across Florida Keys waters.
430 PM MST Sat Feb 10 2018 Latest satellite imagery depicts westerly flow downstream of a long wave trough over the Central Rockies. Water vapor imagery showed higher moisture continuing to advect in over the Central Plains ahead of the trough. During the latter half of the afternoon am still expecting the upper level short wave trough following the snow to split, with one piece moving northeast of the area and the other to the southwest. Sunday southwest winds will bring warmer air into the forecast area. Due to the expected snowfall today, trended the high on the cooler side of most model data.
Any shower activity has pushed off to the southeast with widespread drizzle continuing in the wake of the strong cold front that is now located over the far south. Cold air continues to push into the state but sub freezing air still is confined to the northern parts of the state and will have a difficult time getting into central sections tonight. I am still expecting some light accretion of ice across the north but impacts are still expected to be minimal and confined to elevated surfaces such as trees, bridges and overpasses. Of greater concern may be the fog than any freezing precipitation. Freezing drizzle will remain possible for the northern sites with liquid precipitation for the central and southern terminals.
As a cold front exits the Silver State, many locations will see the coldest temperatures this year by early Sunday morning.
A cold front is on its way currently draped, as of writing, from La Grange to Junction. However, fog may erode quickly overnight with much cooler and drier air filtering in. As for temperatures, did lean close with the NAM and kept much cooler (even colder) temperatures across South Texas. Some improvements to visibilities have been noted across waters generally south of Port Aransas as warmer and slightly drier conditions have developed, while north of Port Aransas, temperatures remain cool and sea fog remains thick. A cold front is expected to move through tonight which should bring much drier air and allow for improvements to visibilities.
/issued 243 PM CST Sat Feb 10 2018/ Temperatures this afternoon are around 30 degrees cooler than yesterday behind the strong front that moved through last night. Further to the southeast, freezing rain is possible, but have kept PoPs low.
Winds back from WSW to SW in the low levels, which is also unfavorable for severe weather.
940 PM CST Sat Feb 10 2018 While the strong cold front is nearly to the coast this evening, we are still seeing some light rains in its wake across central portions of the CWA. Colder/ slightly drier air will continue to filter down from the Plains overnight with temperatures falling to near freezing across our northern tier of counties. /ISSUED 403 PM CST Sat Feb 10 2018/ Light shower activity over the southeastern forecast area leading an approaching cold front now moving across the northwestern forecast area.
Some gusty southerly winds in the 20 to 30 mph range have developed over the coastal counties associated with a weak coastal trough moving off to the southeast.
The surface cold front that had moved thru our region yesterday was now well to the south of the area, with all areas in a cold northerly low level flow. Most pcpn-types have been freezing liquid (drizzle/light rain) but a few have also included some snow/graupel for areas north and west of STL metro. Much of the resultant increased lift will eventually settle on the northern CWA where it should supply needed cloud ice aloft to tilt the pcpn types to snow, but it will struggle elsewhere, more favoring freezing liquid pcpn (drizzle/light rain) with lesser chances for snow or sleet. Total ice accums from freezing drizzle/rain could reach up to a tenth of an inch in most areas with higher amounts possible mainly in southeast or central MO.
Fog and low ceilings within IFR/LIFR will prevail overnight, while rains gradually diminish from west to east with the passage of a cold front. southeast Texas and the coastal waters ahead of a cold front that is projected into the coastal waters after sunrise. The cold front will push colder temperatures into the region by the late morning hours. As a result daytime highs are not projected to climb out of the low 60s.
Rest Of Tonight: Freezing drizzle is now occurring across of most South-Central KS. The freezing drizzle occurring across South-Central KS is occasionally mixing with light snow & should change to all snow by mid-night. Cold front has pushed all the way down into TX with unseasonably cold air continuing to spill-in from the north. This has resulted in pockets of flurries and light freezing drizzle over far se KS, where it's still not cold enough to result in all snow. Models have remained very consistent in tracking this band generally north of I-70 this evening which is where the higher snow amounts should remain with 1-3 inches possible, with slightly higher amounts closer to the Nebraska border. CIGS & VSBYS would greatly improve late tonight/early Sun morning in a N-S manner as fairly strong high pressure spreads S/SE toward KS.
At moment, freezing temperatures are not expected to coincide with measurable precip. Model runs remain in decent agreement with a southeastward trend of higher qpf over the past 24-36hours, and the highest amounts well to our southeast. Cold front will finally slide accross the upper Ohio Valley Sunday night.
Gusty southwest winds will continue into the early evening, with a cold front then moving across the area tonight with a chance of rain and snow showers over northeast Arizona.
Low pressure will track north along this boundary on Sunday lifting it northward during the day. Low pressure will shift into the maritimes Sunday night driving a trailing cold front through the region.
Have maintained a slight chance for freezing rain over the extreme northern tier of zones, but as before, measurable precip for those areas is on the wane and any ice will be light and likely elevated as per the warmer ground- sfc. At moment, freezing temperatures are not expected to coincide with measurable precip. Model runs remain in decent agreement with a southeastward trend of higher qpf over the past 24-36hours, and the highest amounts well to our southeast. Cold front will finally slide accross the upper Ohio Valley Sunday night.
647 PM EST Sat Feb 10 2018 Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb trough across the central U. This trough amplifies over the cewntral U. In the extended, GFS and ECMWF show a 500 mb closed low off the CA coast with zonal flow across most of the U. Cold air comes into the area again 12z Thu with a trough that digs into the upper Great Lakes. This cold air and deeper amplified trough remain through Saturday.
333 PM MST Sat Feb 10 2018 Current surface analysis shows high pressure centered over northeast NE, with arctic boundary well south and west of the region.