Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
FL PENINSULA REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A TRAILING TROUGH AXIS BOTH IN THE MID AND LOWER LEVELS. SLOWLY DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE FURTHER AWAY FROM REGION.
IR SATELLITE SHOWING SOME THIN CIRRUS OVER SE TX AND SFC ANALYSIS SHOWING WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER E TX. TEMPS ARE ALREADY IN THE LOW 70S SO THINK THERE COULD BE SOME FOG MAINLY SOUTH OF I-10 BUT COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG FOR RURAL AREAS WEST AND NORTH OF HOUSTON. AN UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER ARIZONA WAS PUSHING EASTWARD. MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING AROUND THE RIDGE OVER TEXAS WAS SEEN AS CIRRUS DRIFTING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO EXERT AT LEAST SOME INFLUENCE OVER THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE IT FLATTENS AND SHIFTS EAST IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING UPPER LOW.
1229 AM EDT WED OCT 7 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH OUT OF CANADA ON WEDNESDAY AND WILL MOVE OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
AS HIGH PRESSURE WORKS IN FROM OUR NORTHWEST. COOLER TEMEPRATURES ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.
AFTER THE COLD FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE AREA EARLY EVENING.
DEEP LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE GRADUALLY MOVING ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MAINLY EAST OF THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. SLOW PROGRESSION OF THE POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL AZ. AMDAR UL WIND FIELDS AND EARLY AFTN SATELLITE LOOPS PLOT THE LOW CIRC CENTER SPANNING ACROSS MOHAVE/YAVAPAI COUNTIES WITH LINES OF SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALONG ASCENT REGIONS/VORTICITY LOBES. WHILE MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES REMAIN OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ DESERTS. THE UL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL AZ PERSISTING THE COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT WITH 500MB TEMPERATURES NEARING MINUS 14-15C FOR WEDNESDAY.
707 PM EDT TUE OCT 6 2015 LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST WILL MOVE FARTHER OFFSHORE THROUGH TONIGHT.
CLOUDS WILL ONCE AGAIN INCREASE SOME TONIGHT AS A MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH SWING ACROSS THE REGION.
A LOW LEVEL TROF ACROSS NORTHWEST ALABAMA WILL PUSH SLOWLY SOUTHWARD AND BECOME STATIONARY NEAR THE I-20 CORRIDOR THIS EVENING.
TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING ABOUT 4-8 DEGREES WARMER THAN AT THIS TIME YESTERDAY. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL STILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE 60S DESPITE THE WARMER DAY TIME TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AS THE UPPER LOW NEARS THE REGION. WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
NW AREAS HAVE BEGUN TO WARM SOMEWHAT BACK INTO THE LOWER 60S AND MAY SQUEEZE OUT A FEW MORE DEGREES BUT WITH PEAK HEATING ALREADY HERE DON'T THINK THERE WILL BE MUCH OF A CHANGE. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT MUCH MORE QUICKLY AND ALLOW FOR WARMER CONDITIONS FOR THE AREA WITH HIGHS CLIMBING ABOVE 70S IN MOST SPOTS. NW FLOW OFF THE LAKE WILL KEEP LAKE SHORE AREAS ON THE COOLER SIDE.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER WESTERN ARIZONA WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHEAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A RIVER OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE IS FOUND ACROSS THE PANHANDLES AHEAD OF THIS UPPER LOW. A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE AND ACROSS THE PANHANDLES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SOME OF THE STORMS ON WEDNESDAY MAY GET STRONG AS THE DYNAMICS FROM THE UPPER LOW GET CLOSER. THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY START TO DECREASE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW DIVES SOUTH INTO NORTHERN MEXICO SOUTH OF THE ARIZONA/NEW MEXICO STATE LINE.
TEMPS WERE IN THE LOWER 70S ON AVG. TEMPS WILL WARM NICELY INTO THE LOWER 70S FAR NORTH TO MID/UPPER 70S ELSEWHERE. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FAR WESTERN IOWA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FINALLY COME TO AN END TONIGHT AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES ITS SOUTHEAST PROGRESSION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA ALLOWING FOR DRY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA WITH ACTIVITY STILL OCCURRING WELL EAST OF MOHAVE COUNTY.
725 PM EDT TUE OCT 6 2015 LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS WILL MOVE FARTHER OUT TO SEA THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE IN FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT WHICH WILL ALLOW WINDS TO REMAIN PRETTY LIGHT.
1102 PM EDT TUE OCT 6 2015 CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
/ISSUED 342 PM CDT TUE OCT 6 2015/ BROAD RIDGING ALOFT CENTERED OVER THE SRN PLAINS/MS VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THE WRN AZ CLOSED LOW AS IT DRIFTS ESE ALONG THE AZ/NM/NRN OLD MX BORDER. WITH THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE MOVING ATOP THE REGION WEDNESDAY. COMPRESSIONAL WARMING BENEATH THE RIDGE WILL RESULT IN EVEN HOTTER TEMPS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
730 PM EDT TUE OCT 6 2015 A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WEDNESDAY.
Ridging out ahead of this will build across the Ozarks and southeast Kansas. However, with strengthening upper ridging will see erosion of these clouds Wednesday for at least some sunshine.
Mid level ridging will continue over the PAH forecast area throughout most of the short term period while the nrn stream remains active, with shrtwv energy moving through every couple of days or so. This means dry and warmer-than-average weather can be expected for most of the period, with variable cloudiness. A more significant shrtwv is progged to swing a sfc cold front through our region early Fri. There are some timing differences in the 12Z runs of the models, notably the slow GEM (which depicts a flatter trof) and the rather quick GFS.
Went closer to the cooler MET MOS temperatures for lows tonight. There will be increasing cloudiness Wednesday afternoon, however, as an upper low in the Four Corners region digs south in south central New Mexico.
LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER WILL DRAG A FRONT THROUGH THE CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON. COMPRESSIONAL HEATING AND SLIGHTLY MORE SOLAR INSOLATION /LESSER CLOUDS/ WILL LEAD TO WARMER HIGHS. READINGS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S SHOULD PREVAIL. THE EXTENDED PERIODS WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED BY AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. MODELS BRING AN UPPER CLOSED LOW INTO FAR SERN ARIZONA BY EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING AS A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS NEBRASKA INTO THE ERN DAKOTAS. AN ACCOMPANYING WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL LIFT FOR A 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS EAST OF HWY 83. THE LOW CHANCE POPS WILL BE CONFINED TO AREAS EAST OF AINSWORTH THROUGH BURWELL.
949 PM CDT TUE OCT 6 2015 LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGE SHOWS AN UPPER LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST PART OF ARIZONA. SREF AND EVEN THE GFS ENSEMBLES ARE IN FAIR TO GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE UPPER LOW MOVEMENT/TRACK FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
PERSISTENCE OF RIDGING INFLUENCES SFC/ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN VFR/SKC CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT NLY SFC WINDS THRU 08/06ZZ. CONTINUANCE OF RIDGING INFLUENCES SFC/ALOFT SHOULD RESULT IN VFR/SKC CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT NLY SFC WINDS PERSISTING THRU 07/24Z.
HOWEVER TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING. LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S NORTHWEST TO LOWER 50S IN THE JAMES VALLEY.
911 PM CDT TUE OCT 6 2015 MINOR TWEAKS TO THE TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT/SKY COVER FORECAST QUIET AND WARM WEATHER CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE TN VALLEY TONIGHT UNDERNEATH THE EASTERN FLANK OF A BUILDING RIDGE AXIS CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. FURTHERMORE, DUE TO WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY, A SLOWER COOLING TREND IS ANTICIPATED, AND HAVE RAISED OVERNIGHT LOWS A COUPLE OF DEGREES WHILE MAINTAINING THE WARMER TEMPS OVER NW AL/COOLER TEMPS OVER NE AL TREND.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE RRV BY MIDNIGHT AND OVER ERN FCST AREA AT 12Z WED. A LIGHT WIND WILL DEVELOP AT 12Z IN THE RRV AND CLOUDS WILL INCREASE IN THE FAR WRN FCST AREA LATER TONIGHT PRODUCING A TAD WARMER CONDITIONS.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER EAST TEXAS WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES INTO THE SW U. OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S OVER THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS TO MIDDLE 60S OVER THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS.
A DRY NW FLOW ALOFT AND SURFACE RIDGING BUILDING DOWN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL RESULT IN A RAIN FREE FORECAST THROUGH MID WEEK.
WINDS AND PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENING AS ATLANTIC LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST.
TEMPS WERE FAR WARMER TODAY THAN THE PREV DAYS WITH MID 80S IN MUCH OF THE AREA. LARGE CLOSED LOW OVER SRN CA WILL DRIFT EAST INTO THE DESERT SW WITH A RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY. THE RIDGE WILL ALSO LEAD TO A CONTINUATION OF THE DRY FCST.
648 PM CDT TUE OCT 6 2015 UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW A SFC COLD FRONT WAS SLOWLY PROGRESSING THROUGH NW WI THIS AFTERNOON. CLEARING WILL CONTINUE AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE FORECAST AREA. CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTH WILL CLEAR AS WELL AS SHORT WAVE TROF MOVING THROUGH NW MN MOVES E AND EVENTUALLY OUT OF THE REGION. THE HIGH WILL COVER THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. THE HIGH WILL DRIFT OFF TO THE EAST ON WEDNESDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE GETS ORGANIZED IN THE DAKOTAS.
A MOIST UPPER LOW WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM UTAH TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THIS LOW AND PERSIST THROUGH THE LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEK. THE CLOSED LOW IS OVER W CENTRAL AZ THIS EVE AND IS DRIFTING SWD AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO NOSE INTO THE NRN GREAT BASIN. THE UPSTREAM RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WRN GREAT BASIN THRU FRI KEEPING A STABLE MOSTLY DRY NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE CWA. THE AIRMASS WARMS THRU FRI AND EVEN MORE SO SAT AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA.
LOWS WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT AND THE PROSPECT OF ANY DENSE FOG BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY DOES NOT LOOK HIGH.
SURFACE FLOW OUT AHEAD OF THE LOW IN THE CWA WAS MAINLY OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST. THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG FROM THIS MORNING HAVE MOSTLY BURNED OFF. THOUGH THERE ARE STILL SOME AREAS IN NORTHEASTERN WYOMING AND SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA WHERE THE LOW CLOUDS ARE PRESENT.
850 PM EDT TUE OCT 6 2015 A WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGH IS BRINGING CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA. BUT IN GENERAL CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY THIS WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTROLS OUR WEATHER.
856 PM PDT TUE OCT 6 2015 A ridge of high pressure will weaken tonight with light rain spreading east across the region Wednesday. Light rain with amounts around a tenth of an inch is expected for the Columbia Basin, Spokane/Coeur D'Alene area, with lighter amounts up near the Canadian border as the warm front lifts north. JW 00z TAFS: Expect thicking mid and high clouds tonight as a warm front approaches. Areas of light rain will increase on Wednesday as the warm front tracks across the region.
800 PM MDT TUE OCT 6 2015 ONLY MAJOR UPDATE TO THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WAS TO TAKE OUT THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR ISOLATED PRECIP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN FOR THE REST OF THE EVENING.
AS A MID-UPPER TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY WARMER AS COMPARED TO TODAY. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW 80S NEAR THE COAST. MORNING LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. WARMER NEAR THE COAST.
938 PM EDT TUE OCT 6 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK LEADING TO DRY CONDITIONS. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN BRIDGED ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. EXPECT CLOUDS WILL MOSTLY DISSIPATE THIS EVENING; HOWEVER, MID CLOUDS WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT DRAWS NEAR. LOWS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE LOWER 40S, THOUGH SOME OF THE USUAL COLD SPOTS WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S. THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTH ACROSS THE STATE ON WEDNESDAY.
930 PM PDT TUE OCT 6 2015 HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD THE REST OF THIS WEEK AND BRING A WARMING TREND AND FAIR WEATHER.
THE CENTRAL PLAINS SITS IN THE RIDGE BETWEEN TWO UPPER TROUGHS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHWEST AREAS OF THE CONUS. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS AT THE SURFACE OVER EASTERN KANSAS CAUSING LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE AREA.
1033 PM EDT TUE OCT 6 2015 A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WEDNESDAY.
625 PM CDT TUE OCT 6 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL SLIDE EAST TO ARKANSAS/LOUISIANA ON WEDNESDAY. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST DOWN INTO TEXAS WITH GENERALLY NORTHEAST TO EAST WIND OF 4 TO 8 KNOTS PREVAILING THROUGH WEDNESDAY. /ISSUED 254 PM CDT TUE OCT 6 2015/ QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING PERSISTS ACROSS THE AREA. BUT TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER AND SOME LOCATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO WARM CLOSE TO 90 DEGREES.
UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION IN THE COMING DAYS. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE SW UNITED STATES WAS ORIGINALLY THOUGHT TO MOVE TOWARDS ARKANSAS IN THE COMING DAYS INCREASING MOISTURE IN THE REGION. CURRENT FORECAST KEEPS THE UPPER LOW FROM MAKING ANY HEADWAY TOWARDS THE STATE.
IR SATELLITE SHOWING SOME THIN CIRRUS OVER SE TX AND SFC ANALYSIS SHOWING WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER E TX. TEMPS ARE ALREADY IN THE LOW 70S SO THINK THERE COULD BE SOME FOG MAINLY SOUTH OF I-10 BUT COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG FOR RURAL AREAS WEST AND NORTH OF HOUSTON.
AN UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER ARIZONA WAS PUSHING EASTWARD. MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING AROUND THE RIDGE OVER TEXAS WAS SEEN AS CIRRUS DRIFTING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO EXERT AT LEAST SOME INFLUENCE OVER THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE IT FLATTENS AND SHIFTS EAST IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING UPPER LOW.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. IN ADDITION EXPECT COOLER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
/ISSUED 254 PM CDT TUE OCT 6 2015/ QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING PERSISTS ACROSS THE AREA. BUT TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER AND SOME LOCATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO WARM CLOSE TO 90 DEGREES.
542 PM PDT TUE OCT 6 2015 A ridge of high pressure will weaken tonight with a chance of light rain spreading east across the region Wednesday. especially compared to last night where pockets of freezing temperatures were observed. Regarding rain chances, the low level air mass remains dry per the Spokane 00z sounding and it will take some time to moisten up. This may occur due to the subtropical moisture feed into the area and isentropic lift present with a warm front passage. JW 00z TAFS: Expect thicking mid and high clouds tonight as a warm front approaches. Areas of light rain will increase on Wednesday as the warm front tracks across the region.
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGE SHOWS A PLUME OF MOISTURE BEING DIRECTED NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH INTO NORTHWEST WASHINGTON AND WILL REMAIN THE CASE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
A WEAK NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH. /ISSUED 300 PM CDT TUE OCT 6 2015/ WX MAP SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL U. CONTINUING TO RIDGE SOUTH. MAIN FEATURE THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL BE WEAK RIDGING ALOFT OVER THE GULF STATES KEEPING AREA WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS. DML LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE AREA.
745 PM EDT TUE OCT 6 2015 LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS WILL MOVE FARTHER OUT TO SEA THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
800 PM PDT TUE OCT 6 2015 HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION THIS WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO ABOVE AVERAGE. A ridge of high pressure will remain over the area this week.
817 PM EDT TUE OCT 6 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION TODAY THROUGH THU.
RIDGING ALOFT AND FROM THE NORTH AT THE SURFACE. /ISSUED 958 PM CDT TUE OCT 6 2015/ WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS RIDGING ALOFT TAKING OVER ACROSS THE CNTL CONUS ATTM. IR IMAGERY SHOWS JUST A LITTLE CIRRUS SPILLING OVER THE RIDGE. A WEAK NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH. /ISSUED 300 PM CDT TUE OCT 6 2015/ WX MAP SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL U. CONTINUING TO RIDGE SOUTH. MAIN FEATURE THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL BE WEAK RIDGING ALOFT OVER THE GULF STATES KEEPING AREA WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS. DML LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE AREA.
958 PM CDT TUE OCT 6 2015 WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS RIDGING ALOFT TAKING OVER ACROSS THE CNTL CONUS ATTM. IR IMAGERY SHOWS JUST A LITTLE CIRRUS SPILLING OVER THE RIDGE. A WEAK NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH. /ISSUED 300 PM CDT TUE OCT 6 2015/ WX MAP SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL U. CONTINUING TO RIDGE SOUTH. MAIN FEATURE THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL BE WEAK RIDGING ALOFT OVER THE GULF STATES KEEPING AREA WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS. DML LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE AREA.
UPPER LOW IN ARIZONA IS DRIFTING SEWD AND CLOUDS HAVE DECREASED IN TWIN FALLS COUNTY.
CONTINUANCE OF RIDGING INFLUENCES SFC/ALOFT SHOULD RESULT IN VFR/SKC CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT NLY SFC WINDS PERSISTING THRU 07/24Z.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER HUDSON BAY WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AND THEN SOUTHWEST INTO THE PLAINS. THIS WILL SEND THE COLD FRONT FURTHER SOUTH THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND SOUTH OF THE GREAT LAKES BY WEDNESDAY EVENING WHERE IT WILL BEGIN TO SLOW. AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS WILL LEAVE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC DOMINATING.
710 PM EDT TUE OCT 6 2015 A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WEDNESDAY.
BROAD AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE REGION WITH AN EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS MONTANA OVERNIGHT.
AS A CLOSED LOW OVER FAR WESTERN ARIZONA MOVES SOUTHEAST. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN TRACKING THE LOW SOUTHEAST INTO MEXICO.
PERSISTENT CLOUDS AND STRATUS DECK HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES MUCH COOLER. AS A RIDGE ALOFT BEGINS BUILDING IN FROM THE PACIFIC OFF OF CALIFORNIA.
1002 PM EDT TUE OCT 6 2015 CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
856 PM EDT TUE OCT 6 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH OUT OF CANADA ON WEDNESDAY AND WILL MOVE OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
EARLIER NAM WAS INDICATING SURGE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LOWER CIGS AFFECTING SRN WI BEGINNING WED EVE BUT GFS20 MUCH DRIER IN THE LOW LEVELS.
525 PM PDT TUE OCT 6 2015 UPDATED AVIATION SECTION HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN TO WARM TEMPERATURES TO ABOVE NORMAL BY MIDWEEK.
751 PM EDT TUE OCT 6 2015 A WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGH IS BRINGING CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. BUT IN GENERAL CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY THIS WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTROLS OUR WEATHER.
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM DULUTH TO SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT. SHOULD SEE A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY WITH COOLER TEMPS.
DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ALONG WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH LATE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE CALIFORNIA COAST. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE AREA WILL MAINTAIN WARM TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY.
917 PM PDT TUE OCT 6 2015 A BUILDING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
23Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE STILL HANGING ON OVER FAR EASTERN KENTUCKY WHILE STRONG MOISTURE RETURN ON THE BACKSIDE IS LIFTING THROUGH CENTRAL KENTUCKY. THESE HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS ALONG WITH AN UPDATED ZFP HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST TONIGHT AND TOMORROW WITH MID/HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. PERHAPS LIMITING OUR RIDGE/VALLEY SPLIT TONIGHT. WILL STILL GO WITH A MODEST RIDGE/VALLEY SPLIT IN THE EAST. THIS WILL YIELD SOME GUSTY WINDS ON THE RIDGE TOPS IN SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN VERY MILD THROUGH MUCH OF TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO INCREASE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
317 AM CST TUE NOV 17 2015 Mid/upper level low pressure currently located over the CO/NM/TX borders is forecast to drift eastward today and then lift northeastward over central KS overnight. Most locations should stay in the clouds today since the low level moisture holds in place. A surface cold front beneath the mid/upper level low pressure sweeps through overnight. Although can not rule out a few flakes mixing in with the rain if temps were to be a few degrees cooler aloft.
SOME OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE IS STARTING TO INDICATE THIS NEXT BATCH OF PCPN BEING WEAKER. WEAK RIBBON OF HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP OVER CENTRAL ND LATER TUES. MUCH COOLER HIGHS FOR WED INTO THU AS WELL. WITH THE COOLER TEMPS.
335 AM EST TUE NOV 17 2015 UPPER LEVELS AT 00Z FEATURED RIDGING IN THE EASTERN MOST PORTIONS OF THE CONUS. WITH CLOSED UPPER LOW WELL ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. THROUGH THE DAY TODAY THE UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW IS POISED TO PROGRESS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS THEN EJECTS NNE INTO THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY BEFORE MORPHING INTO THE A BROADER TROUGH IN CANADA. AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGING IN THE EAST.
A VIGOROUS MID/UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES IS PROGGED TO LIFT NORTH AND EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. THIS APPEARS ON TRACK GIVEN THE VERY STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR/MERIDIONAL FLOW AND STRONG LARGE- SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT IMMEDIATELY DOWNSTREAM OF THE MID/UPPER TROUGH. LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS MAY REDEVELOP UNDER THE UPPER LOW AS IT APPROACHES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AND MAINTAINED LOW POPS FOR THIS SCENARIO.
A N-S BAND OF MODERATE TO SOMETIMES HEAVY RAIN WILL THEN SHIFT EWD ACROSS THE CWA TNT AS THE LARGE POLAR TROUGH MOVES TOWARD THE MIDDLE MO RVR VALLEY WITH A 60-70 KT SLY LLJ CONTINUING. TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS WILL RISE LATE IN THE DAY AS THE THERMAL RIDGE ARRIVES WITH VERY MILD TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS CONTINUING TNT.
PRECIP WITH THIS DISTURBANCE WILL DIMINISH BY LATE TONIGHT WITH FOCUS THEN ON APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
Southerly winds at the surface and in the low levels just off the surface will continue to advect moisture into the area ahead of the large/strong trough, which is currently over the 4-corners region as of this evening. As the trough approaches overnight moderate to potentially heavy rain will begin to overspread the area.
A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED FROM TUESDAY THROUGH LATE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC.
Precip chances pick up again today as short range models indicate a strong closed off upper level low shifting eastward across southwest Kansas and the panhandles of Oklahoma and Texas through this afternoon, then lifting northeast across eastern Kansas Tuesday night. Although low QPF amounts suggest light snow accumulations up to an inch or two through Tuesday evening, especially if preceded by a period of light rain wetting the already warmer soil, strong gusty winds are expected to develop behind the front due to a tight pressure gradient. Colder temperatures are likely Today as a cold front pushes through southwest and central Kansas through this afternoon.
100 AM EST TUE NOV 17 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST TO THE NORTH WHILE A COASTAL TROUGH LINGERS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH MID WEEK.
This afternoon, water vapor imagery showed the poignant upper trough axis rotating over the Four Corners Region while embedded vorticity maxima was noted lifting north and east from the panhandles and southern Oklahoma. Effective shear 0-6 KM will quickly increase after 00Z with the approaching trough, from 45 kts at midnight to near 60 kts by 6 AM. This amount is maximized in the lower levels as sfc winds back to the southeast at 15 to 20 mph overnight. Light showers remain possible with the highest chances over east central and far northeast Kansas. Lesser amounts of precip and higher mixing heights help to warm highs into the lower and middle 60s.
1115 PM CST MON NOV 16 2015 WV IMAGERY THIS AFTN SHOWING A LONGWAVE TROF CUTTING DOWN THE ROCKIES WITH A DEEP CLOSED OFF LOW SPINNING OVER THE 4 CORNERS REGION. MODELS PROG THE CLOSED LOW TO RAPIDLY MIGRATE EWD TONIGHT AND REACH THE CNTRL PLAINS SHORTLY BEFORE 18Z TUES WITH INTENSE SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT PRECEDING THIS SYSTEM. IN RESPONSE TO A LARGE AND BROAD UPPER TROF ENVELOPING THE MAJORITY OF THE CONUS.