Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1110 AM MST TUE FEB 10 2015 POORLY ORGANIZED AND FRACTURED TROUGH WILL DROP SOUTHEAST INTO THE ROCKIES AND NRN PLAINS TODAY DRAGGING A SERIES OF COLD FRONTAL SURGES THRU THE CWA. THOUGH AT LEAST THE ECMWF SUGGESTS THIS MAY CHANGE IN THE VICINITY OF THE PINE RIDGE THIS MORNING.
355 PM EST TUE FEB 10 2015 CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
113 PM EST TUE FEB 10 2015 A PRESSURE RIDGE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL EXTEND THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
1209 PM CST TUE FEB 10 2015 COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE STEADY PROGRESS ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AND INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS THIS AFTN. THE EFFECTS OF THIS LOW ARE MORE NOTICEABLE AT H8 WHERE MUCH STRONGER WINDS ARE NOTED IN WAA REGIME OVER NTX. THE HIGHER SPEEDS WILL BE OUT ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS BUT EVEN THEN. MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL THUS BE IN STORE WHEN COMPARED TO THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. BUT DOWNGLIDE AND DECREASING OMEGA FIELDS SHOULD QUICKLY ENSUE BY SOMETIME LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING BEHIND THE UPPER TROUGH.
340 PM CST TUE FEB 10 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS TOMORROW.
MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH EVOLUTION OF WAVE APPROACHING THE CENTRAL ROCKIES MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND EVOLVING INTO A RETROGRADING CLOSED LOW. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR A BAND OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE PANHANDLES DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY WITH THE HIGHER PROBABILITY OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION BEING CONFINED TO ROUGHLY THE SOUTHWESTERN HALF OF THE AREA. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PERSISTS INTO THE WEEKEND BETWEEN EASTERN CONUS TROUGHING AND RIDGING IN THE WEST. WE WILL REMAIN ON THE FRINGE OF WESTERN CONUS RIDGE WITH MODEST HEIGHT RISES TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.
1137 AM CST TUE FEB 10 2015 GOING TO ADD IN SOME PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE FOR A FEW HOURS LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON TOO. THINKING THIS COULD BRING AN INCH OR SO TO AREAS ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER TAPERING TO A DUSTING ALONG THE HIGHWAY 2 CORRIDOR. QPF MAXIMA EXPECTED TO BE PLACED JUST NORTH OF THE LOW TRACK. ALTHOUGH THE HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH LOWER SNOW RATIOS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE THE TERMINALS WITH LIGHT WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE STATE ON WEDNESDAY WITH WINDS SHIFTING NORTHWEST BUT REMAINING LIGHT.
There is an upper trough over the four corners region with southwest flow over the CWA. A cold front associated with an upper trough moving over the Great Lakes region will move into the area on Wednesday. The upper trough over the four corners region will move southward over southern New Mexico by Wednesday evening.
HIGH PRESSURE. A TURN TOWARDS COOLER TEMPERATURES AND MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER IS POSSIBLE BY THE WEEKEND. UPPER RIDGE HEIGHTS SLOWLY CONTINUE TO RECEDE AS BROAD TROUGHING DEVELOPING ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN CONUS. EVEN WITH THE LOWERING HEIGHTS AND SUBTLY COOLER AIR UPSTREAM NOTED ON AM SOUNDINGS.
A strong cold front will move into the area late tonight with gusty northerly winds and MVFR ceilings behind it. /ISSUED 430 AM CST Tue Feb 10 2015/ WV imagery shows the upper ridge centered just south of Texas, bounded by a weak trough well off the Baja coast in the west, and a trough along the eastern seaboard in the east. W/the upper ridge overhead and return flow continuing, expect another day of unseasonably warm temperatures this afternoon. Unfortunately, this comes to an end Wednesday, as an upper trough moving into the Great Lakes region overnight pushes a backdoor cold front into West Texas/Southeast New Mexico Wednesday.
149 PM PST TUE FEB 10 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL MOVE OVER THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA TOMORROW.
AROUND 12Z TOMORROW A COLD FRONT WILL BLAST THROUGH THE PANHANDLES TO SHIFT WINDS OUT OF THE NORTH. AN UPPER TROUGH. MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS WITH BELOW SEASONABLE NORMS WEDNESDAY AFTER ONE LAST DAY OF ABOVE NORMAL CONDITIONS TODAY.
1130 AM CST TUE FEB 10 2015 VFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PERSIST INTO THIS EVENING OVER ALL THE SITES AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS OVERHEAD AND EAST OF THE AREA.
MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE AS LOW CLOUDS DEVELOP BEHIND A COLD FRONT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS LATE TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
THINKING THIS COULD BRING AN INCH OR SO TO AREAS ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER TAPERING TO A DUSTING ALONG THE HIGHWAY 2 CORRIDOR. QPF MAXIMA EXPECTED TO BE PLACED JUST NORTH OF THE LOW TRACK. ALTHOUGH THE HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH LOWER SNOW RATIOS.
UPPER FLOW WILL BE WESTERLY TODAY AS A TROUGH MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE SOUTHERN END OF THE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT AND THEN EXIT THE REGION WEDNESDAY.
/ISSUED 1005 AM CST TUE FEB 10 2015/ CLOUD COVER SO FAR THIS MORNING HAS BEEN SLOW TO BURN OFF AND HAS EFFECTIVELY KEPT TEMPERATURES COOLER THAN FORECAST. 09Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE BACK THROUGH THE NORTHERN GULF COAST AND CAROLINA COAST.
TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT UPPER TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERN CONUS. SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS ACROSS NORTHWEST SD MAY BE AIDING IN SOME LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS WITH ANY RAIN THAT MAY BE FREEZING TO SURFACES. COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN MOVING THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING. SOME LIGHT RAIN/SNOW IS POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST WY AND THE BLACK HILLS TODAY INTO THIS EVENING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. HIGHS TODAY SHOULD MANAGE TO REACH THE 50S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BEFORE THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. UPPER RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS ON WEDNESDAY. AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION.
PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF AS THE DAY PROGRESSES AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT.
324 PM EST TUE FEB 10 2015 TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT. THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE RETURN OF CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT RESULTS IN UNCERTAINTY IN THE LOW TEMPERATURES. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE COOLER THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY FORECAST EVEN WITH A RETURN OF SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL MAKE IT'S APPROACH LATE WEDNESDAY.
345 PM CST Tue Feb 10 2015 (Tonight and Wednesday) A surface lee side trough was located just west of our area was helping produce gusty south winds and very warm temperatures this afternoon. Temperatures across West Central Texas were in the lower 80s, which is running 15 to 20 degrees above normal. The weather will be a little more interesting on Wednesday as a cold front moves south across West Central Texas. Also, gusty north-northeast winds are expected behind the cold front, with gusts to 30 mph possible. 21 (Wednesday night through next Tuesday) For Wednesday night, models continue to show weak lift crossing the area as an upper level low moves through the four corners region southward into northwestern Mexico.
1202 PM CST Tue Feb 10 2015 Warmer temperatures are expected to return this afternoon for much of the region as southerly winds mix down increasing 925 hPa temps as warm as +8 C across eastern KS and far western MO, resulting in high temperatures in the lower to mid 50s. A strong cold front will sweep through the region late tonight into early Wednesday morning, resulting in falling temperatures through much of the day Wednesday.
High pressure is expected to build over the Inland Northwest tonight and Wednesday bringing generally mild and dry conditions with some areas of low clouds and fog.
A LARGE RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE UNITED STATES.
303 PM CST TUE FEB 10 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL SURGE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WITH DAYTIME HIGHS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY AND BRISK NORTH WINDS MAKING IT FEEL COLDER.
ALTHOUGH THE LOW LEVELS WILL SATURATE TONIGHT. WE HAVE LOWERED THE POTENTIAL FOR A STRATUS SURGE AS THE LOW LEVELS REMAIN MIXED. THIS FRONT WILL ALSO PULL COOLER AIR.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT. THIS CLEARING MAY HELP TO MODERATE TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES WARMER TODAY THAN ORIGINALLY ANTICIPATED. WHILE THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE EASTWARD TONIGHT. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND UPPER MIDWEST WEDNESDAY MORNING AND REACH CENTRAL OHIO BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. BUT A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WILL BEGIN THE COLD AIR ADVECTION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ANY PRECIP THAT FALLS WITH THE TROUGH WILL BE LIGHT. THE FIRST FRONT WILL CLEAR THE AREA WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH THE EXITING TROUGH.
OTHERWISE, BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL MEAN WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HOWEVER ANY MVFR OR IFR CIGS THAT FORM WILL BURN OFF TO VFR RATHER QUICKLY AS THE TREND IS FOR HIGH PRESSURE TO DRY THE ATMOSPHERE OUT. HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING OVER THE AREA TODAY BUT SEAS WILL REMAIN HAZARDOUS THROUGH MID MORNING DUE TO MODERATELY HIGH WEST SWELLS.
253 PM MST TUE FEB 10 2015 RADAR ECHOES THIS AFTERNOON LOOKING MORE LIKE THE END OF APRIL THAN EARLY FEBRUARY! INSTABILITY TODAY HAS HELPED TO FIRE OFF SOME SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF EAST-CENTRAL UTAH AND WEST- CENTRAL COLORADO. THE SNOW LEVEL HAS HUNG AROUND 7500 FEET TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING AT MANY LOCATIONS THAT ARE REPORTING SNOW. A WEAK CLOSED LOW AT MID LEVELS WILL DEVELOP EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND BRING SUB- ADVISORY SNOW AMOUNTS TO AREAS MAINLY EAST OF LAKE CITY FROM ABOUT MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE CENTER OF THE LOW DROPS SOUTH INTO NEW MEXICO DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS WILL BE ON THE LOW SIDE AND WITH TOVER VALUES NEAR 0 FOR THE PLATEAU. WE COULD SEE SOME FREEZING FOG OVERNIGHT FOR THAT AREA. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AT THE SFC AND ALLOW FOR A SEASONABLY COLD NIGHT TONIGHT. THE 1ST ARCTIC FRONT WILL BE LOCATED UPSTREAM AND ALLOW OUR TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE LOWER 50S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.
A cold front will move through the KARI terminal at 13Z Wednesday, switching the wind to a northerly direction. Have adjusted the highs up a few degrees across our northern counties, given the low-level thermal ridging pattern across that area. A cold front will move south into our northern counties overnight, but the bulk of the cold air advection will hold off until during the day Wednesday. Cold front dropping through the area Wednesday afternoon will end the well above temperatures temporarily.
332 PM EST TUE FEB 10 2015 A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS HAS ARRIVED TODAY ON THE HEELS NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 30 MPH, A RESULT OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE MOVING AWAY FROM THE CAROLINA COAST.
THE NAM MODEL SHOWS LOTS OF TRAPPED MOISTURE FROM DODGE CITY AND EAST WITH MUCH COOLER HIGHS, WHILE THE GFS MIXES THIS AREA OUT A BIT MORE. FOR TONIGHT, A COLD FRONT PASSES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE PLAINS WITH NORTH WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH. AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE OVER NORTH AMERICA THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
337 PM CST TUE FEB 10 2015 ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON -- BETWEEN A TROUGH SHIFTING EASTWARD OFF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS AND A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. AS THE RIDGE TRANSLATES EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF -- DOWNSTREAM FROM A MID-LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. A RIDGE AXIS REMAINS ALIGNED ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA. AN AMPLIFYING NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE GREAT LAKES LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
A COLD FRONT WILL ALSO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY.
208 PM MST TUE FEB 10 2015 Scattered light showers over the higher terrain will dissipate this evening with partial clearing for many locations. A ridge of high pressure will develop on Wednesday.
I WILL PROLONG THE HIGHER AMOUNTS OF CLOUD COVER BY A COUPLE/FEW HOURS. 05/MA /ISSUED 517 AM CST TUE FEB 10 2015/ LARGE POLAR VORTEX OVER HUDSONS BAY KEEPS A MEAN TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA AND INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES MUCH OF THE PERIOD. WITH AN UPPER RIDGE REMAINING NEAR THE WEST COAST.
LAYER OF STRATOCU PREVIOUSLY COVERING THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE CWFA IS ERODING RAPIDLY WITH SUNSHINE AND BUILDING RIDGES. CONTINUED DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY AND TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL WEAKEN OVER OUR CWA TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR NEAR CALM WINDS AND STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING. MORNING LOWS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF OUR AREA WILL BE NEAR FREEZING WITH MID 30S TO THE WEST.
303 PM CST TUE FEB 10 2015 LOW PRESSURE DRIFTING SE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT HAVING PUSHED INTO S DAKOTA AND NORTHEASTERN WYOMING. THERMAL RIDGE AHEAD OF THE FRONT HELPING TO WARM TEMPS INTO THE LOWER AND MID 60S. MAIN FOCUS WILL BE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT. NOTICEABLY COOLER DAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 30S ACROSS N CENTRAL. THE COLDEST AIR ALOFT WILL REMAIN ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA AND AS THOSE LOCATIONS WILL BE CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF THE HIGH. FROM THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS NORTHEAST TO NEAR 20 FAR SOUTHWEST.
FAST UPPER SUPPORT TO PUSH SERIES OF DRY COLD FRONTS AND ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE AREAS THROUGH THE AREA EVERY FEW DAYS. COLD AND DRY FORECAST TO KEEP TEMPERATURES 10-15+ DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AREAWIDE MOST DAYS WITH FREEZING OVERNIGHT CONDITIONS OVER THE NATURE COAST FRI/SAT TIMEFRAME THEN AGAIN MON. WILL KEEP FREEZING TEMPS NORTH OF THE TAMPA BAY AREA ATTM. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.
SEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NEVADA TONIGHT ALONG WITH PATCHY AREAS OF FREEZING FOG. VERY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD QUICKLY INTO NEVADA WEDNESDAY WITH FEW CLOUDS AND LIGHT WINDS.
AM GOING A BIT WARMER OVERNIGHT TONIGHT GIVEN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WIND INCREASE AND ONSHORE FLOW ADVECTING WARMER AND MOISTER AIR.
320 PM CST Tue Feb 10 2015 Fair conditions dominating this afternoon all in advance of cold front that will pass across the region during the overnight hrs tonight. latest ACARS soundings from MCI only showing effective mixing up through the lowest 2 kft feet of the atmosphere. expect mostly clear skies with weakening winds as the frontal trough approaches. with fcst soundings more than suggestive that low stratus will take up shop across the lower Missouri Vly during the early morning hrs as cold air advection commences. have sided with the cooler MET guidance for temp trends through the period.
WITH THIS WIND SWITCH TO THE NW OUT THERE DO NOT EXPECT ANY MORE FREEZING PCPN. AS THE WIND SWITCH TO THE NW COMES INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO THE THREAT FOR ANY MORE FREEZING PCPN WILL ALSO END. OF A BIGGER CONCERN NOW MAY BE A PERIOD FOG AND FREEZING DRIZZLE THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. GETTING QUITE A FEW REPORTS OF FZDZ AND EVEN VERY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE SECOND WAVE.
READINGS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S IN THE VALLEYS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WAS SUPPORTING SHOWERS IN PORTIONS OF SE OREGON AND SW IDAHO EARLY THIS MORNING. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY ACROSS THE WESTERN U.
1256 PM EST TUE FEB 10 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN LAKES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TODAY.
PRECIPITATION IN MINNESOTA STARTED OUT AS FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET BEFORE CHANGING TO MOSTLY SNOW. THIS SEEMS CONSISTENT WITH THE DRY LAYER ON THEIR SOUNDING BECOMING SATURATED AND COOLING BELOW FREEZING. BUT AM CONCERNED ENOUGH ABOUT THE WARM LAYER GETTING ABOVE 0C TO ADD SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE. SO HAVE FREEZING DRIZZLE CHANCES SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THE HIGH AMPLITUDE FLOW AND WESTERN RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A PATTERN OF COLD ARCTIC INTRUSIONS INTO THE AREA.
UPPER LEVEL JET MAX OVER NORTHERN COLORADO WL SHIFT EASTWARD OVERNIGHT AS THE TROUGH AXIS SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION.
A 25-30 KNOT SW LLJ SHOULD ALSO HELP IN CEILINGS AROUND 4 KFT ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING WEDNESDAY. /ISSUED 459 AM CST TUE FEB 10 2015/ CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR WITH JUST A FEW INTERMITTENT CLOUDS FEATHERING INTO OUR EASTERN ZONES IN THE WAKE OF THIS BACK DOOR COLD FRONT. THIS COLD FRONT IS ALREADY WELL TO OUR SOUTHWEST WITH THE NEXT HIGH PRESSURE AREA FOR MIDWEEK LOOKING A BIT COLDER STILL COMING DOWN THE FRONT RANGE.
411 PM EST TUE FEB 10 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN LAKES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TODAY.
1045 PM CDT MON APR 13 2015 A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. AS THE HIGH PULLS OFF TO THE EAST. A STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP ON TUESDAY AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS IN RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS AND MIXED LAYER WINDS INCREASE.
809 PM EDT MON APR 13 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING.
1206 AM EDT TUE APR 14 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING.
THE EVENING CONVECTION WILL BE THE FIRST ISSUE FOR THE EVENING TAFS WITH THE CONV MAINLY FIRING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHEAST MEXICO WHERE SOME BETTER CAPE VALUES RESIDE. LATER IN THE TAF PERIOD EXPECT A COLD FRONT TO PUSH STEADILY SOUTH TOWARDS THE RGV INCREASING THE CONV POTENTIAL FOR THE RGV AIRPORTS AFTER 12Z TOMORROW. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH DEEP SOUTH TEXAS LATE TONIGHT OR TOMORROW MORNING.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS EXPECTED INTO TUESDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH MAIN UPPER LOW. /ISSUED 337 PM CDT MON APR 13 2015/ THE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH THE ENTIRE AREA. NEXT ROUND OF PRECIP SHOULD FOCUS ACROSS SE OK/ WC AFTER 06Z TONIGHT AS ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ROTATES AROUND THE APPROACHING UPPER LOW.
THE ROTATIONAL SPIN OF THE LOW IS BEGINNING TO SPIN UP ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EAST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI. CAUSES QUITE AN INTERESTING FORECAST FOR THE WEATHER VERSUS POP FORECAST AND TRIED GO WITH THE HIGHEST COVERAGE IN THE NORTHWEST AND THEN DROP FROM THERE.
1039 PM EDT MON APR 13 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL RAPIDLY APPROACH OVERNIGHT AND CROSS THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
The storms were developing along and behind a Cold front that extended from just north of San Angelo and Brady. Slow moving thunderstorms along and north of a cold front will produce quick heavy rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches. /ISSUED 353 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2015/ (Tonight and Tuesday) Scattered showers and thunderstorms were developing along and north of a cold front from Mertzon to San Angelo to Brownwood at 3 PM. With an upper low to the northwest in the South Plains, there is also a low potential for a land spout or brief tornado.
HIGHS FOR THE CALENDAR DAY ON TUESDAY WILL OCCUR JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT AHEAD OF THE STRONG COLD FRONT. THE TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL SUPPORT STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS.
/ISSUED 329 PM CDT MON APR 13 2015/ CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER WEST TEXAS TONIGHT FORECAST TO LIFT NORTH AND EAST INTO OKLAHOMA AND THEN THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES TUESDAY.
659 PM CDT MON APR 13 2015 A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. AS THE HIGH PULLS OFF TO THE EAST. A STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP ON TUESDAY AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS IN RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS AND MIXED LAYER WINDS INCREASE.
SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS EVENING REVEALS A WELL DEFINED UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST STATES AHEAD OF THE CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER WEST TEXAS.
HAVE POSTED AN FFA FOR THE BRO CWA IN ANTICIPATION OF THE APPROACH OF THE COLD FRONT TOMORROW INCREASING THE SURFACE CONVERGENCE/CONV POTENTIAL. THE EVENING CONVECTION WILL BE THE FIRST ISSUE FOR THE EVENING TAFS WITH THE CONV MAINLY FIRING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHEAST MEXICO WHERE SOME BETTER CAPE VALUES RESIDE. LATER IN THE TAF PERIOD EXPECT A COLD FRONT TO PUSH STEADILY SOUTH TOWARDS THE RGV INCREASING THE CONV POTENTIAL FOR THE RGV AIRPORTS AFTER 12Z TOMORROW. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH DEEP SOUTH TEXAS LATE TONIGHT OR TOMORROW MORNING.
THE WATERS WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE WITH WINDS AND SEAS BELOW HEADLINE CRITERIA.
744 PM EDT MON APR 13 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT.
CURRENT LARGE SCALE PATTERN SHOWS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE US WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GULF AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA. AT THE SURFACE AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW OVER THE SOUTH FLORIDA.
TONIGHT-TUE: LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO FLIRT WITH BORDER AREA IN SOUTHEAST KS AS VORTICITY LOBE OVER SOUTHEAST OK ROTATES AROUND UPPER LOW. TUE NIGHT-WED: PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE AS REMNANTS OF UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS SOUTHEAST KS. BUT PRECIPITATION AND CLOUDS WILL KEEP MAXES A BIT COOLER. WITH EITHER STRONG RETURN FLOW OR DIFFUSE WARM FRONT OVER MUCH OF AREA. GFS IS FASTER WITH UPPER LOW.
1054 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2015 Extensive area of mid and high level cloudiness across central through southeast Illinois as low pressure tracks well to our south tonight. Further north, high pressure will move across the southern Great Lakes with quite a bit of dry air advecting south into our region overnight. 19z/2pm surface analysis shows cold front departing the far SE KILX CWA, with showers lingering along and just behind the boundary. However, there are still a few differences with the disposition of this low later in the week. Main storm track will be along the Canadian border and upper Midwest, resulting in the low generally meandering northeast.
918 PM EDT MON APR 13 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT.
A DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND BE FOLLOWED BY SLIGHTLY COOLER AND BREEZY WEATHER ON TUESDAY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP WILL EXIST OVERNIGHT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SIERRA NEVADA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A RETURN OF DRY AND WARMER WEATHER FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. ONSHORE FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT IS FORCING WINDS THROUGH THE WESTSIDE PASSES AND INTO THE VALLEY AS A MARINE AIR PUSH MAKES ITS IMPACTS ON THE VALLEY ATTM. BUT PICK UP AGAIN AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. A BAND OF CLOUDS MARKS THE LOCATION OF THE APPROACHING UPPER- LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL BRING CENTRAL CALIFORNIA BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
1022 PM EDT MON APR 13 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING.
ON THE HEELS OF THE DEPARTING BOUNDARY IS A BROAD ANTI-CYCLONIC RIDGE. TEMPS BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ARE RATHER UNIFORM IN THE LOW/MID 60S WITH DEW POINTS FALLING INTO THE LOW 30S. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE MINIMAL CLOUD COVER THRU TUE NGT. LIKELY KEEPING MUCH COOLER TEMPS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE LAKESHORE. BEACHLER 210 PM CDT A DEVELOPING 500MB TROUGH ACROSS THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION OF THE CONUS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST BY TUESDAY MORNING AND WILL BECOME MORE TRUE NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY AS THE HIGH LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THE GRADIENT WILL BE WEAK WITH LIGHT WINDS NEAR THE CENTER OF THE HIGH MIDDAY.
WITH THE LOW CLOUDS DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE DEEP EAST TEXAS AND NORTH LOUISIANA REGION OVERNIGHT. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY 3-7 KNOTS AHEAD OF THE LOW AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND SHIFTING THE WEST AND NORTHERLY IN ITS WAKE. /ISSUED 250 PM CDT MON APR 13 2015/ COLD FRONT HAS SLOWLY MOVED EAST OF I-35 TO NEAR EDGE OF CWA. A DEEP CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL DIG SWD ACROSS ROCKIES ON THURDAY. WITH A COLD FRONT RETURNING TO THE AREA. AND STG UPPER DIFLUENCE AHEAD OF THIS LOW.
1217 AM EDT TUE APR 14 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL RAPIDLY APPROACH OVERNIGHT AND CROSS THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. A LEE TROUGH IS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED OVER WEST TEXAS. A LEE TROUGH RAPIDLY DEEPENS TOMORROW WITH PERSISTENT PRESSURE FALLS EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SPLIT FLOW WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH A RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND A TROUGH IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.