Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Obviously very heavy snow is falling over the high country and the Winter Storm Warning will remain in effect. By tonight this AR #1 event should come to an end with some brief ridging and drying for Friday and Friday Night.
A weak ridge of high pressure will remain over the state through Friday morning, then move out into the Atlantic Friday afternoon. Some fog is possible again tonight with high pressure parked overhead and still plenty of low-level moisture.
S/SW winds this morning will shift to the NE as a cold front moves through the area today. /issued 410 AM CST Thu Jan 5 2017/ In the upper levels a West Coast trough will quickly swing east today moving across the Panhandle on Friday.
For the weekend a flat upper level ridge will build over the area with dry conditions on Sat along with warmer temps. Aftn highs over nern CO will range from the 20s north of a Denver to Akron line while further south highs will be in the lower to mid 30s. By Mon night into Tue an upper level trough will move quickly across nrn CO which will bring more snow to the mtns.
A bit "warmer" Friday with highs a few degrees above zero in east-central Minnesota into parts of northwest Wisconsin, but remaining below zero for areas along and north of the Iron Range. Over the next 36 hours an additional inch or two is expected across the higher terrain of northern Bayfield county given the persistent low level winds expected through the short term.
341 AM MST Thu Jan 5 2017 Strong cold front making very slow progress south this morning and currently sits just north of a line from Grand Junction to DeBeque to Glenwood Springs and Eagle. South of the front, still seeing plenty of action across the higher elevations and in the Gunnison area where snow continues to fall. The current Winter Weather Advisories have yet to pan out, but patience is sometime the key with these slow moving front and will not drop the highlights just yet. Low temps in the lower valleys around Craig and Hayden will make a run for 30F below zero tonight with -10 to +10 common elsewhere. Very cold conditions expected Friday night with clear skies and light winds settling in as transitional ridging slides over.
1009 AM EST Thu Jan 5 2017 A fast-moving system will spread snow across the region this afternoon and tonight, with the highest accumulations expected south of I-70. This is not the main event, as snow will ramp up in intensity later this morning/afternoon as a wave digs through the broad and cold upper trough, pulling some mid level continental moisture northward. Snow will continue overnight with the highest snowfall expected in and along the terrain with some upslope enhancement.
722 AM EST Thu Jan 5 2017 Fast-moving light snow event will impact the area this evening through tonight, with the highest snowfall amounts in the Laurel Highlands. Radar and HI RES models show the main LES band shifting to the north of Warren County this morning, as the low level flow continues to back to the WSW in advance of positive tilt northern stream trough driving arctic cold dome from the Upper Midwest into the Great Lakes and Northeast by the end of the period. Will allow dayshift to collaborate with PHI/LWX on possible advy for the Lower Susq. High pressure ridge will keep the weather pretty quiet on Day 2 and 3.
530 AM CST Thu Jan 5 2017 A cold front has pushed through all three terminals and breezy northeasterlies are expected with quite chilly temperatures for this part of the country. /issued 327 AM CST Thu Jan 5 2017/ As is often the case with deep cold air masses, the cold front is many hours ahead of where models placed it last night. Strong northerly flow is noted at H5 across MT and the Dakotas with a near latitudinal trough across SRN ID/OR. Flow across WTX remains near zonal even with the approach of the ID/OR trough into Friday morning. This trough will provide lift which will bring some decent snowfall to the northern Panhandle of Texas.
Light winds will prevail today, but a cold front is expected tonight. As a result, some fog and lower ceilings may develop across the Lower Valley this evening ahead of the front, with conditions degrading to IFR, mainly for ceilings. A strong cold front will arrive tonight, however, changing things up a bit. Light rain and or drizzle will have a chance of developing tonight and Friday as the colder air provides weak lift and underruns the warmer and moister air in place.
510 AM EST Thu Jan 5 2017 Fast-moving light snow event will impact the area this evening through tonight, with the highest snowfall amounts in the Laurel Highlands. Radar and HI RES models show the main LES band shifting to the north of Warren County this morning, as the low level flow continues to back to the WSW in advance of positive tilt northern stream trough driving arctic cold dome from the Upper Midwest into the Great Lakes and Northeast by the end of the period. Will allow dayshift to collaborate with PHI/LWX on possible advy for the Lower Susq. High pressure ridge will keep the weather pretty quiet on Day 2 and 3.
Below freezing temperatures in the valley Friday morning.
557 AM EST Thu Jan 5 2017 Quiet, VFR weather is forecast through the TAF period, behind a cold front which is now just south of the Florida Keys. Surface analysis for the past several hours depicts a cold front exiting our region with drier air filtering in behind. A rather benign weather pattern is on tap through Friday evening as the aforementioned cold front pushes further out to sea. Expect partly cloudy skies, lower relative humidity, and slightly cooler weather. High temperatures across the region will max out right around 80 degrees, which is still around 5 degrees warmer than normal for this time of year. Another cold front, a bit more potent, should begin to approach South Florida by Friday night.
452 AM CST Thu Jan 5 2017 A bit warmer today as onshore winds return ahead of the next cold front. Models remain (mostly) on track with the next cold front moving off the upper TX coast by this evening with freezing/near freezing temps possible across the northern FA overnight into Fri morning. So no real arguments with what we had previously where POPS remain on the low side (20-30%) and clearing out a bit sooner for Fri night. The next best chance of rain could be Tues/Wed with the passage of a sharp upper trof. Cold front marching south (currently over eastern Oklahoma trailing down to near Childress.
A slow moving cold front will continue to push south in southern Utah today.
A strong cold front will arrive tonight, however, changing things up a bit. Light rain and or drizzle will have a chance of developing tonight and Friday as the colder air provides weak lift and underruns the warmer and moister air in place.
The latest guidance continues to suggest frost potential across our western zones, southwest Nebraska and along the Platte river system overnight, with lows in the lower to mid 30s. The guidance did however trend slightly warmer from previous runs, which introduces some uncertainty in the forecast. With the region being under the influence of high pressure at the surface and aloft, precipitation chances are nil over the next 24 hours.
817 AM EDT Sun Sep 25 2016 High pressure moving out of Canada will bring cooler temperatures and drier air to the region through tonight. Most towns in the area will see their first frost or freezing temperatures tonight.
629 AM CDT SUN SEP 25 2016 Cold front was making steady progress through the forecast area, located from about Sioux City, IA southwestward to Hebron, NE at 07z. Then the upper trough moves through the area this afternoon. It will be significantly cooler than yesterday with highs 68-71 and breezy northwesterly conditions. The remainder of the short term will be dry and quiet with high pressure prevailing.
1002 AM EDT Sun Sep 25 2016 Showers and scattered thunderstorms can be expected with a Monday cold front. No major changes were needed for the late morning update as dry high pressure will continue to suppress clouds and precip into Monday. A deepening mid level trough is projected to close over the Northern Great Lakes on Monday as it drives a cold front across the Upper Ohio.
102 PM EDT SUN SEP 25 2016 Hydro Enjoy the mild weather today because a cold front passage tonight will usher in more fall like weather for a few days.
Weak high pressure remains stretched across the northern gulf and southeast states this morning. Aloft, the ridging that has been in place the last few days continues to break down and shift east. A large trough stretches from Canada, across the mountain west, and into Mexico.
234 PM EDT Sun Sep 25 2016 A large area of high pressure over the area will result in another cool night across the Keystone state.
A cold front is currently moving through the Panhandles and bringing improving ceilings. Once the cold front across the NW zones moves through later this morning we will see visibilities improve once again. /Issued 258 AM CDT SUN SEP 25 2016/ One upper level trough extended from an upper low over the North Dakota/South Dakota state line southwestward into southeast Colorado. Another upper level low was just about ready to cutoff from the flow over northern Mexico. The northern stream trough will help to drive a cold front southward across the panhandles this morning. Winds will decrease into the 5 to 10 mph range tonight as high pressure starts to build in.
Upper level ridge will continue to build across the Intermountain West through Monday. Monday, temperatures will reach the low 80s in the lower valleys which is about 8-10 degrees above normal. An upper level ridge will bring clear skies and afternoon temperatures about 10 degrees above normal through midweek.
A weak upper level low will linger across the area today. The combination of the upper low and better deep layer moisture levels will allow for a slightly better chance of showers and thunderstorms, especially across eastern zones under the upper low.
Larger upper level low remains over the FL Panhandle this morning with a weaker vort max offshore the East Central FL coast. There is a nearly stationary upper level low across the Florida panhandle. On the eastern periphery of that a mid-level trough and 500 hpa vorticity maximum is across portions of Martin and Palm Beach counties and extends eastward into the adjacent Atlantic waters. However the upper low across the eastern Gulf is expected to remain mainly stationary today. Similar to the last several days tropical moisture will continue to dominate the region and cooler than normal mid-level temperatures will continue as well. Forecast soundings indicate the low level wind profile will be favorable and recent satellite imagery indicates cloud convergence bands across portions of the Gulf and Atlantic waters.
Gradual warmup continues across the district as EPAC ridge builds in from the west. Trending up 3-6 degrees today, with another 3-6 degrees on Monday as the ridge axis will be overhead.
Slightly more than expected activity is seen across GA and AL in the broad synoptic ascent region of the upper low centered over the Florida panhandle.
/Today/ Precipitation continuing to move across the forecast early this morning in advance of cold front currently entering western Iowa. Otherwise, much cooler and drier air will overspread the state today behind the front with west winds picking up by this afternoon, especially in the north and west. There will be some brief clearing the in west this morning, however with cooler air aloft, anticipate and expansive shield of cumulus to form by midday into the afternoon with mostly cloudy conditions in most locations.
An upper level ridge extends north from the Gulf of Mexico into the Ohio River Valley. However, water vapor imagery highlights a cut-off low which has hijacked the base of the ridge axis. Aside from the low, the upper levels are diffuse and chaotic. The mean lower tropospheric analysis from CIMSS indicates a weak ridge extends from the Bahamas northwest into the southeastern United States. The mid section of this ridge has been weakened by both the upper level low and the diurnal thermal trough along the Florida Peninsula.
Upper level ridge axis that has slowly been working its way towards the area this week will finally move east of the region later today. Approaching trough in the Midwest will help push the ridge east and bring precip chances to the area on Monday.
210 PM CDT Sun Sep 25 2016 Surface cold front associated with an upper level trough will continue its march eastward tonight, firing showers and a few thunderstorms along and ahead of it.
WV imagery this morning depicts an upper low centered over the Florida Panhandle. This front, with support from the upper low, have sparked a few storms across the NE Gulf and SE Big Bend this morning. Later this afternoon it will be a weak seabreeze circulation combining with the low to initiate convection. Elsewhere across AL and GA, a stray shower or thunderstorm can't be ruled out due to the influence of the upper low, though coverage will be much less than across north Florida.
Showers and thunderstorms have filled in a little over the forecast area this afternoon, especially a cold front moving south into the region.
An approaching cold front will bring higher coverage of showers and thunderstorms late tonight/early Monday and through the end of the period. Winds will take on an easterly direction in the morning ahead of the approaching cold front.
940 AM EDT SUN SEP 25 2016 Morning water vapor satellite imagery is showing an upper level low spinning over the Florida Panhandle, while a plume of moisture produces showers and thunderstorms off the southeast coast of Florida and western Bahamas. KTBW 12Z sounding shows that the low levels remained moist, with light and somewhat variable flow. The low level moisture will be enough for isolated thunderstorms to develop early this afternoon, increasing to scattered coverage during the late afternoon and early evening. The highest chances for category restrictions will be during the late afternoon and early evening hours as thunderstorms build back to the coast. Weak high pressure will hold north of the waters through the first half of the week, with light and generally easterly flow turning onshore each afternoon near the coast with the sea breeze.
113 PM EDT SUN SEP 25 2016 Aviation Enjoy the mild weather today because a cold front passage tonight will usher in more fall like weather for a few days.
1140 AM CDT SUN SEP 25 2016 A cold front currently over the eastern Great Plains will move slowly eastward into Missouri this afternoon and into Illinois this evening. The area is still on the western periphery of a strong mid and upper level ridge which is providing synoptic scale subsidence for much of the area. Models have this ridge weakening through the day as the longwave trof over the Plains continues moving east. The front should be near the I-44 Missouri/I-55 Illinois corridor by early evening with rain ending behind it as cooler and drier air pushes in from the northern Plains.
523 AM MDT SUN SEP 25 2016 The current satellite water vapor image is showing yesterday's storm system now centered over central North Dakota dragging it's cold front through the Great Plains. High pressure is now building in over the Western CONUS. All three models show high pressure steadily building over the western states, providing clear skies and dry weather through Monday night.
The deep upper low that brought significant precipitation to most of southern Montana and northern Wyoming the last few days has moved into the Dakotas this morning.
San Angelo and Abilene ceilings are expected to IFR this afternoon as a cold front moves through. An upper low west of El Paso will continue to bring upper level divergence over the region. A cold front will push through the region this afternoon, providing a low level focus for development.
408 AM EDT Sun Sep 25 2016 A large area of high pressure near James Bay Canada will drift south and become centered over the northeastern US Sunday. A cold front will push through the region late Monday and Monday night. Clouds increase Monday ahead of significant cold front headed our way.
The first challenge for today will be timing the final wave of precipitation swinging around the back side of an upper low progged to pass through the region. Therefore, continued with the highest PoPs across the northern third of the forecast area with decreasing chances further south. With high pressure then building into the High Plains, a fairly tight pressure gradient will set up across the area.
The weak mid/upper level trough will remain near the region through Monday. Changes are underway as a deep amplitude upper level trough digs south into the Great Lakes and pinches off an upper level low that drops southward as well. This upper low and trough combo is going to rotate around the eastern seaboard through the forecast period.
High pressure is rapidly building into the region.
The rain will continue through the afternoon ahead of a cold front. San Angelo and Abilene ceilings are expected to IFR this afternoon as a cold front moves through. An upper low west of El Paso will continue to bring upper level divergence over the region. A cold front will push through the region this afternoon, providing a low level focus for development.
636 AM EDT Sun Sep 25 2016 Dry and mild conditions are expected under an upper level ridge today. Rain showers will likely accompany a strong cold front tonight into early Monday morning.
1232 PM CDT SUN SEP 25 2016 An upper level trough continues to swing across the Northern Plains very early this morning, with the surface cold front presently situated along the Interstate 29 corridor. It will be drastically cooler today, with readings a good 10 to 20 degrees cooler than yesterday, with highs remaining in the 60s. Clouds clear out tonight with winds slowly dropping off as surface ridging nudges eastward into the Northern Plains. Do think that winds will remain just strong enough to prevent temperatures from completely bottoming out in the cool airmass, though will still reach normal levels for this time of year - in the lower to mid 40s. Large trough digging in across the northern Great Lakes will keep the area in a mixy northwest flow through Monday.
513 AM MDT SUN SEP 25 2016 Upper level trough extends from the Northern Plains.
246 PM CDT SUN SEP 25 2016 Manual upper-air analysis at 12z revealed a vigorous mid-level trough from central Canada into the north-central U. At the surface, a cold front stretched from the upper Midwest through the Ozarks into southern Plains as of early afternoon. These winds will diminish by evening with clearing skies allowing overnight lows to fall into the lower to mid 40s. The upper-air system passing to our north today will evolve into a closed low over the Great Lakes early this week with the mid Missouri Valley remaining in northwest flow aloft.
SHORT TERM (Tonight through Monday Night): A negative tilt H5 trough is moving laterally from west to east across the upper plains today. High pressure is over the central high plains and a cold front is pushing out ahead of that high pressure over North Central Texas. High pressure is also over the Gulf of Mex, driving a moderate southeast flow over the CWA, pumping moisture ashore. The NAM starts out the work week Monday morning with ongoing Gulf showers and streamers moving onto the coast and over the Lower Valley, even reaching the southern Mid Valley. Overnight low temperatures will be a bit less than tonight, in the lower to mid 70s.
228 PM CDT SUN SEP 25 2016 Strong cold front to bring an end to the rain and much cooler temps to the area. Cold front cont to push south through the area this afternoon with drier and cooler air filtering south in its wake.
911 AM EDT SUN SEP 25 2016 An upper-level ridge will continue to build east into the area through today. A cold front will approach from the north today and stall across the area Monday providing a focus for scattered showers and thunderstorms.
415 AM CDT SUN SEP 25 2016 Upper level ridge that encompasses most of the southeastern United States is beginning to compress and weaken as a trough is moving northeast across the high plains. The weakening of the ridge will allow for scattered convection to develop and become slightly more widespread today. Surface analysis shows a weak inverted trough developing over southern Mississippi and Alabama. Highs will be about the same as yesterday in the lower 90s which is several degrees above normal. The ridge overhead will continue to suppress Monday which will allow the trough to the north to dig further south. Rain chances should remain in the low end change category as the first significant cold front since last spring approaches the region.
Today: Latest water vapor loop was showing the upper level trof that gave us rain/snow last night now near the North Dakota/Manitoba border. Temperatures will be about 5 degrees cooler in the panhandle today due to the colder air aloft from the upper level trof. Beyond this timeframe we are looking at mild temperatures and light winds due to the influence of the upper level ridge building across the Rockies.
Much of the overnight rain is staying west of Highway 83 within the shear axis to the east of the upper level trough. By late this afternoon, the upper low will begin to retreat to the west which will slightly weaken the upper support for convection. At the same time, the main trough in the northern plains will continue to move east. This feature will send a cold front into Texas this afternoon and the front will approach the northern CWA around midnight tonight. Temperatures behind the front Monday will be in the lower 70s to middle 80s with lingering rain chances. The threat of heavy rainfall will be less on Monday as the cold front pushes south of the area by the afternoon hours and the best lift will be weak isentropic lift on top of the frontal layer.
325 AM CDT Sun Sep 25 2016 Showers and scattered thunderstorms across eastern Kansas early this morning will slowly move to the east through today as a slow moving cold front makes its way through the Ozarks. The cooling trend and fall temperatures will begin Monday as cool Canadian high pressure filters into the Ozarks behind the cold front. As the ridge moves over the region a sprawling area of high pressure will spill across the plains all the way to the Gulf coast. This will bring very nice weather to the region with sunny skies, mild temperature in the lower to middle 70s, and lower humidities through the end of the week.
An upper low west of El Paso will continue to bring upper level divergence over the region. A cold front will push through the region this afternoon, providing a low level focus for development.
635 AM CDT Sun Sep 25 2016 Showers continue to quickly push towards the east through central North Dakota into the James River Valley, while cold front is now working its way through the James River Valley. Under a weak wind and clear sky tonight have opted to follow the cooler MAV guidance more closely for overnight lows. The lowest we went was 35 around Hettinger, so no freeze, but patchy frost. Strong mid level ridging follows for much of this week.
There is a nearly stationary upper level low across the Florida panhandle. On the eastern periphery of that a mid-level trough and 500 hpa vorticity maximum is across portions of Martin and Palm Beach counties and extends eastward into the adjacent Atlantic waters. However the upper low across the eastern Gulf is expected to remain mainly stationary today. Similar to the last several days tropical moisture will continue to dominate the region and cooler than normal mid-level temperatures will continue as well. Forecast soundings indicate the low level wind profile will be favorable and recent satellite imagery indicates cloud convergence bands across portions of the Gulf and Atlantic waters.