Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
/Issued 349 AM CDT Tue Oct 5 2021/ Highly amplified blocking pattern in place across the CONUS with the notable local feature being the upper low currently centered over SE AR.
456 AM MDT Tue Oct 5 2021 High pressure over the Tri State region at this early morning hour is currently giving the area clear skies, with light winds and temps ranging from the mid 40s into the mid 50s. The latest RAP40 500mb analysis, in tandem with the latest mid level water vapor imagery, is showing an elongated upper ridge through the Plains region. As with the past few days of guidance, this upper ridge will continue to play a role in the wx over the area for the entire short term period. A cutoff low over the southeast, and a system coming onshore in the Desert SW, will aid in keeping the ridge in place over the area.
615 AM EDT Tue Oct 5 2021 High pressure will ridge across the region through mid week with a nearly stationary frontal boundary remaining to the south.
609 AM CDT Tue Oct 5 2021 (Today and tonight) A little cooler today across the eastern portions of the area, as weak low level east and northeast flow brings a slightly cooler air mass into the area.
A North Pacific trof remains along the U. Wednesday, marks the beginning of a transition to a cooler and wetter weather pattern. The northern portion of the upstream upper level trof moves onshore the Canadian west coast. The southern portion of this trof follows, entering the U.
1059 AM EDT Tue Oct 5 2021 Isolated showers and thunderstorm chances will continue this week within a warm, humid airmass ahead of low pressure. As diurnal mixing improves visibility by midday, dry conditions should prevail for most of the region today under a building ridge. This is in response to a split flow pattern, will persist today as elongated, southern stream low pressure deepens near the lower Mississippi River Valley. The exception would be across the far sern ridges in WV; where a few terrain-driven showers, due to low-level easterly flow, are possible this afternoon. By Wednesday, ridging overhead will begin to erode late in the day as a trough digs across the Pacific Northwest region and shunts the southern stream, closed low farther east.
727 AM EDT Tue Oct 5 2021 Isolated showers and thunderstorm chances will continue this week within a warm, humid airmass ahead of low pressure. With the lower, autumn sun angle, expect foggy conditions to persist through mid morning before diurnal mixing eventually improves visibility. Dry conditions should otherwise prevail for most of the region today under a building ridge. A split flow pattern will persist today as elongated, southern stream low pressure deepens near the lower Mississippi River Valley and begins to slowly retrograde late today. The exception would be across the far sern ridges in WV; where a few terrain-driven showers, due to low-level easterly flow, are possible this afternoon. By Wednesday, ridging overhead will begin to erode late in the day as a trough digs across the Pacific Northwest region and shunts the southern stream, closed low farther east.
327 AM MDT Tue Oct 5 2021 Clear skies observed this morning as the upper level ridge axis begins to shift east out of the Front Range. Surface observations show relatively mild temperatures for early October with readings in the 50s, and even the low 60s, across most of the I-25 corridor eastward into the western Nebraska panhandle early this morning. Of course, the typical cooler spots still show more seasonable early morning temperatures in the upper 30s to middle 40s. Expect another pleasant day today as the ridge axis slowly drifts east across the high plains. Models show the next weak disorganized upper level trough pushing northeast across the southern Calif coastline today.
822 AM EDT Tue Oct 5 2021 High pressure will ridge across the region through mid week with a nearly stationary frontal boundary remaining to the south.
901 AM EDT Tue Oct 5 2021 Florida will be sandwhiched between a large upper-level low over the northern Gulf Coast states and an upper-level ridge over the Bahamas. At the surface, a weak frontal boundary supported by the upper-level low/trough extends from south of New England, southwestward through the mid-Atlantic states and into the central Gulf. The 12Z sounding from TBW shows moderate southeasterly flow still in place south of the ridge axis through about 6000 feet followed by more south then southwesterly flow as you move up through the column where the upper-level trough is having more of an influence.
958 AM EDT Tue Oct 5 2021 Our region will be between a frontal boundary to the south and High pressure to the north. High pressure builds further south into the area for the middle of the week. The next chance of showers and associated low pressure looks to hold off till the end of the week. High pressure will slowly build southward into the region today and through the day Wednesday. Clouds should keep the lows from falling much below the mid and upper 50's. More clearing Wednesday as the high pressure system continues building southeast and slightly warmer daytime highs as a result. Upstream is a closed upper level low over Missouri which fills and lifts slowly northeast into the western Great Lakes.
We are situated on the back side of a cut(ting)off low over the Southeastern CONUS with dry northerly flow and surface ridging overtop of us. Tuesday night and Wednesday will be similar to today's weather but slightly warmer and cooler, respectively, largely due to slightly increased cloud cover as the low slowly fills and pulls north. As the western side of the low exits overhead, a ridging pattern will set in, leaving North & Central Texas with continued subsidence. The mid-to-upper level ridging will act to increase the already slightly above normal temperatures we've been experiencing in recent days to well above normal highs reaching the low to mid 90s.
655 AM EDT Tue Oct 5 2021 Our region will be between a frontal boundary to the south and High pressure to the north. High pressure builds further south into the area for the middle of the week. The next chance of showers and associated low pressure looks to hold off till the end of the week. High pressure will slowly build southward into the region today and through the day Wednesday. Clouds should keep the lows from falling much below the mid and upper 50's. More clearing Wednesday as the high pressure system continues building southeast and slightly warmer daytime highs as a result. Upstream is a closed upper level low over Missouri which fills and lifts slowly northeast into the western Great Lakes.
The recent stretch of above normal temperatures will come to an end today as a cold front approaches the forecast area.
518 AM MDT Tue Oct 5 2021 Clear skies observed this morning as the upper level ridge axis begins to shift east out of the Front Range. Surface observations show relatively mild temperatures for early October with readings in the 50s, and even the low 60s, across most of the I-25 corridor eastward into the western Nebraska panhandle early this morning. Of course, the typical cooler spots still show more seasonable early morning temperatures in the upper 30s to middle 40s. Expect another pleasant day today as the ridge axis slowly drifts east across the high plains. Models show the next weak disorganized upper level trough pushing northeast across the southern Calif coastline today.
330 AM PDT Tue Oct 5 2021 A weak low pressure system will approach southern California and bring a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms to southern Kern County through early this Tuesday morning. A Pacific storm system is expected to bring much cooler temperatures and a chance of mainly light precipitation later this week. Another warm day expected across the Central California Interior ahead of a disturbance that will usher in much cooler conditions later this week.
The small showers are likely due to nocturnal marine boundary layer instability, and will likely dissipate when the mainland and Cuba begin to heat up this morning and the Straits become a bit more diffluent in the lower boundary layer.
957 AM CDT Tue Oct 5 2021 Mid-level cloud decks continue to rotate into the Ark-La-Tex from the north on the west side of an upper low, now centered over Northern Mississippi. Afternoon highs in the low to mid-80s are expected with warmer conditions in our western zones. The nearby upper low over the ArkLaMiss will rotate in some turning aloft, helping to gather the very limited moisture on this side of the low. Otherwise another quiet night and the low lifting away for midweek.
Rain chances gradually increase Wednesday as the upper low starts to move back north. Models have the upper level low propagating northwards tonight, increasing moisture in the lower and middle levels of the troposphere. Shower chances continue to increase through Wednesday afternoon as the upper low travels further north. Cannot rule out some embedded thunderstorms as instability increases and the low-level thermodynamics improve.
/issued 230 AM CDT Tue Oct 5 2021/ Another nice day is upcoming for West Texas as we'll remain positioned east of a narrow high-amplitude ridge axis and on the western fringes of a broad closed low centered over the southern Mississippi River Valley. The developing upslope flow and weak CAA will secure slightly cooler temperatures than experienced yesterday for all but the southwestern zones, where the cooler easterly flow won't reach until late afternoon or early evening. Dry weather is expected through the rest of the week as an upper ridge will dominate the pattern over the region. 500 mb heights will increase over the area through this week as an upper-level high builds to our south, and an upper trough deepens over the west coast, resulting in increasing temperatures through the end of this workweek.
1007 AM EDT Tue Oct 5 2021 High pressure will ridge across the region through mid week with a nearly stationary frontal boundary remaining to the south.
1100 AM EDT Tue Oct 5 2021 While strong high pressure will remain centered to our north for much of the week, clouds will be slow to clear across the region. A Rex block developing over the center of the country today will maintain expansive high pressure that will be centered over Quebec for the next few days.
The upper level ridge will continue to be the main influence with a dry, warm and subsident airmass in place. Tonight will remain dry as well, although the ridge that has been over the region, will shift into the Northern Plains by 12z Wed. For Wednesday, an upper level trough will lift north-northeast from the Four Corners region to eastern Wyoming. The trough will be weakening as it moves across Colorado.
1219 PM EDT Tue Oct 5 2021 High pressure will ridge across the region through mid week with a nearly stationary frontal boundary remaining to the south.
148 PM EDT Tue Oct 5 2021 While strong high pressure will remain centered to our north for much of the week, clouds will be slow to clear across the region. A Rex block developing over the center of the country today will maintain expansive high pressure that will be centered over Quebec for the next few days. Through this period a closed low will slowly drift northward from the mid Mississippi Valley to the Central Great Lakes as it nears the cresting point of an established upper level ridge of high pressure.
At the surface, a very pronounced inverted trough separates a zone of light north winds to the west of its axis from east to southeast winds east of its axis. , with respect to the mid- and upper low). During the next 24 hours,the mid- and upper low fills very little as it retrogrades NWWD into SE Arkansas. Lows tonight will range from the mid- and upper 60s inland to the lower 70s along the beaches of the western FL Panhandle.
330 PM EDT Tue Oct 5 2021 High pressure will ridge across the region through mid week with a nearly stationary frontal boundary remaining to the south.
132 PM EDT Tue Oct 5 2021 Isolated showers and thunderstorm chances will continue this week within a warm, humid airmass ahead of low pressure. Dry conditions should prevail for most of the region through the remainder of the day under a building ridge. This is in response to a split flow pattern, will persist today as elongated, southern stream low pressure deepens near the lower Mississippi River Valley. The exception would be across the far sern ridges in WV; where a few terrain-driven showers, due to low-level easterly flow, are possible this afternoon. By Wednesday, ridging overhead will begin to erode late in the day as a trough digs across the Pacific Northwest region and shunts the southern stream, closed low farther east.
Upper level energy will rotate NNW around the low and supply the lift necessary for the showers and storms to continue and spread NW across the area through the evening and overnight. Given the close proximity of the low, the chance will continue through Wednesday, though there may be a late night early morning lull working northward in the wake of the initial batch of energy.
MVFR ceilings will be possible across Arkansas sites this afternoon as moisture moves west around large upper low over the southern MS river valley. /Issued 349 AM CDT Tue Oct 5 2021/ Highly amplified blocking pattern in place across the CONUS with the notable local feature being the upper low currently centered over SE AR.
114 PM MDT Tue Oct 5 2021 High pressure over the Tri State region at this early morning hour is currently giving the area clear skies, with light winds and temps ranging from the mid 40s into the mid 50s. The latest RAP40 500mb analysis, in tandem with the latest mid level water vapor imagery, is showing an elongated upper ridge through the Plains region. As with the past few days of guidance, this upper ridge will continue to play a role in the wx over the area for the entire short term period. A cutoff low over the southeast, and a system coming onshore in the Desert SW, will aid in keeping the ridge in place over the area.
255 PM CDT Tue Oct 5 2021 Cloud cover was increasing from the east early this afternoon as increased moisture pushes west between high pressure centered to the northeast and a weak low under a modest cutoff low over northwest Mississippi. The increased moisture and cloud cover should lead to warmer overnight period tonight. The upper low retrogrades north-northwest into Wednesday evening and brings deeper moisture into eastern Kansas.
1056 AM MDT Tue Oct 5 2021 High pressure over the Tri State region at this early morning hour is currently giving the area clear skies, with light winds and temps ranging from the mid 40s into the mid 50s. The latest RAP40 500mb analysis, in tandem with the latest mid level water vapor imagery, is showing an elongated upper ridge through the Plains region. As with the past few days of guidance, this upper ridge will continue to play a role in the wx over the area for the entire short term period. A cutoff low over the southeast, and a system coming onshore in the Desert SW, will aid in keeping the ridge in place over the area.
157 PM PDT Tue Oct 5 2021 A Pacific storm system will bring much cooler temperatures and a chance of mainly light precipitation later this week into this weekend.
226 PM EDT Tue Oct 5 2021 Large upper-level low and associated trough over the northern Gulf coast states has basically reached as far south as it's going to go.
335 PM EDT Tue Oct 5 2021 High pressure moves into the area today and lasts for much of the coming week.
245 PM CDT Tue Oct 5 2021 A cut off low in the lower Mississippi River Valley will slowly lift northwest tonight into Wednesday, reaching south central Missouri by late Wednesday afternoon. Isolated showers will be possible this evening manly across the eastern Ozarks, but CAMs models showing more widespread showers/isolated thunderstorms moving into the eastern Ozarks late tonight then spread eastward as the low lifts north. With the clouds and rain temperatures will drop into the upper 50s tonight and into the low to mid 70s for highs on Wednesday.
Upper level pattern continues to have a couple of upper lows in the southeast and southwest US with our upper level winds coming out of the north to northeast. For tonight weak flow will continue aloft and at the surface so not much mixing is expected and combined with mostly clear skies we should have efficient cooling as I continued the previous forecaster's idea of cooler than guidance temperatures tonight with lows in the 40s. We should see warmer temperatures near the Colorado border with mid 80s possible and temperatures around 80 degrees in our eastern counties.
259 PM CDT Tue Oct 5 2021 Light showers will continue to move across the area this evening, but dry conditions and lows in the lower 60s should prevail the rest of the night.
High pressure will be to the northeast, with an area of low pressure over the central Gulf coast this period. An inverted trough will build over the coastal waters Tonight through Wednesday. Lows in the lower 70s Tonight, with highs in the lower to middle 80s Wednesday.
438 PM EDT Tue Oct 5 2021 Isolated showers and thunderstorm chances will continue this week within a warm, humid airmass ahead of low pressure. Dry conditions will prevail tonight with the area under a building ridge. This is in response to a split flow pattern with elongated, southern stream low pressure deepening over the lower Mississippi River Valley. The exception would be across the far sern ridges in WV; where a few terrain-driven showers, due to low- level easterly flow, are possible early this eve. By Wednesday, ridging overhead will begin to erode late in the day as a trough digs across the Pacific Northwest region and shunts the southern stream, closed low farther east.
314 PM EDT Tue Oct 5 2021 Closed upper low over western Mississippi will retrograde NW into the Ozarks by Wed evening, with a sfc warm front pivoting N/NW into Kentucky tonight. Later in the night precip will be more focused to the south and west of Bowling Green, directed more in line with the low-level jet. Veering flow is expected on Wednesday, with a vort lobe swinging around the east side of the closed low late.
A mid-level low spinning across the Southeast US will push northward tomorrow night as high pressure settles in across Texas behind it. NVA across our area will transition to upper- level ridging which all point to a continued dry pattern for us. Tonight, clear skies will enhance radiative cooling as overnight temps reach the low to mid 60s across Southeast Texas. By tomorrow night as ridging settles in, dewpoints gradually climb to the mid 60s across our southern counties and some ensemble guidance is hinting at some patchy fog for these areas.
1213 PM CDT Tue Oct 5 2021 (Today and tonight) Expect a fairly nice day out there today as a closed low to our east maintains dry northerly flow over the area, keeping skies mostly clear and temperatures in the low 80s for highs this afternoon. The light winds and clear skies will produce excellent radiational cooling conditions tonight, allowing lows to fall into the low to mid 50s, with a few upper 40s possible in northwest Oklahoma.
142 PM MDT Tue Oct 5 2021 Water vapor shows upper ridge shifting into the Upper Midwest, with strong upper low just offshore the Pac NW. Embedded in the southwest flow in-between, a dry upper low is lifting northeast through southern ALTA, with another upper low over far southern CA. At the surface, fairly broad trof over the Northern Rockies/Northern Plains with very warm and breezy conditions across the area. Breezy southwest winds expected over northeast WY with some modest downslope winds in favored areas of the Northern Black Region as trof deepens in the lee of the Rockies ahead of ejecting upper low currently over southern CA. On Wednesday, lee trof advances into far eastern MT/WY during the afternoon as upper low/trof lifts into the Central Rockies.
1117 AM CDT Tue Oct 5 2021 A broad upper low over the Lower Mississippi Valley has become cutoff from the stronger westerlies that have retreated well north of the region.
210 PM CDT Tue Oct 5 2021 High pressure both at the sfc and a loft will remain the main weather feature across northern parts of the region through the better part of Wed. Southward, a cutoff upper level low sits across the lower mississippi river valley, but cyclonic flow north of the low will provide steady east/southeasterly flow - along with ample saturation. WED NIGHT-FRI: closed upper level low over TX will get a kick northward, meandering slowly over the western great lakes by 00z Sat, then east as it gets more caught up in the upper level flow and ahead of 100 kt 300 mb jet.
306 PM CDT Tue Oct 5 2021 Quiet weather continues across the region under amplified upper-level ridging.
The stacked upper low will begin to track north on Wednesday, bringing additional waves of showers and storms northeast.
12Z upper air analysis/GOES-16 Satellite trends this morning places an upper level low over the Lower Mississippi River Valley this morning. An upper level low has been developing over southeast Arkansas. This low is expected to move slowly east today into northwest Mississippi. Tonight, the upper low will start to wander more northwest into northeast Arkansas. Temperatures will be slightly above normal tonight with lows Wednesday morning in the low to mid 60s. The upper low will continue to move slowly north on Wednesday moving into southeast Missouri with more showers and isolated thunderstorms expected mainly over northern sections of the Mid- South. Temperatures will be a little cooler on Wednesday with highs in the mid to upper 70s. As the upper low moves into central Missouri Wednesday night, rain should be confined to far eastern sections of the Mid-South.
Wood (Issued 345 AM CDT Tue Oct 5 2021) Today and tonight: High pressure to the north will strengthen a bit today, but decent low level moisture will linger across northern Wisconsin. There may be some breaks in the clouds at times today into tonight, especially in the north towards the high.
1057 AM MDT Tue Oct 5 2021 Clear skies observed this morning as the upper level ridge axis begins to shift east out of the Front Range. Surface observations show relatively mild temperatures for early October with readings in the 50s, and even the low 60s, across most of the I-25 corridor eastward into the western Nebraska panhandle early this morning. Of course, the typical cooler spots still show more seasonable early morning temperatures in the upper 30s to middle 40s. Expect another pleasant day today as the ridge axis slowly drifts east across the high plains. Models show the next weak disorganized upper level trough pushing northeast across the southern Calif coastline today.
247 PM CDT Tue Oct 5 2021 Satellite imagery showed a large shield of stratus clouds to the north of a cut-off low over the Mid to Lower Mississippi Valley. The big cut- off upper low to our south will edge northward on Wednesday, eventually pulling showers into the region. Heading into Wednesday evening, the spotty showers should lift further north, potentially reaching near or north of the highway 30 corridor.
GOES-16 Satellite trends place an upper level low over West Central Mississippi. KNQA/KGWX WSR-88D radar trends have indicated showers and a few thunderstorms have developed around this upper level low with the best coverage occurring over North Mississippi thus far. As of 2 PM CDT, temperatures across the Mid-South are in the 70s to lower 80s with the cooler temperatures associated with recent rainfall over the past hour or two. Moderately steep 700-500 mb layer mid-level lapse rates, cold air aloft due to the upper level low and mixed layer CAPE values between 1500-2000 J/kg may result in the development of a few strong thunderstorms to perhaps an isolated severe thunderstorm. This aforementioned upper level low is expected to gradually retrograde a bit northwest into Arkansas on Wednesday.