Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Some of the high resolution models still show some light pcpn along the ND/SD border, so will leave the low chances for down there going for now. If nothing develops in the next hour or two, may consider removing the low chances for late this afternoon and evening. With warmer start and partial solar maximum temperatures should range a few degrees warmer than yesterday. Upper ridge builds over the region Thursday. Organizing low pressure overnight across the northern high plains ahead of next upper trough will keep breezy conditions going overnight and with low level moisture flux minimums will be very mild.
109 PM EDT Wed Apr 12 2017 A weakening cold front will move into the Midlands this afternoon and move south of the CSRA overnight. High pressure will be over the area this weekend.
345 PM EDT Wed Apr 12 2017 A cold front will push offshore this evening. with cool high pressure building over the local area for Thursday into the first half of the upcoming weekend. Associated surface cold front extends from along/just off the northeast/Delmarva coast toward the Mid-Atlantic/NC Coastal Plain. The cold front pushes offshore this evening, with any showers ending before midnight for most locations. Sky clears from NW to SE behind the front tonight as weak high pressure begins to build back south across the region from the north. Expect lows in the upper 40s far northern VA counties/MD Lower Eastern Shore and in the lower 50s elsewhere.
The weak frontal boundary associated with the upper level trough axis will push through Central AL today. However, as we go into the afternoon hours, the upper level trough axis and vort max will be moving through. 1000-850mb thickness values are forecast to be around 1390m, which would support highs in the low 80s. The trough axis and vort max shift east of the area by tonight and an upper ridge builds in to the Gulf States during the overnight hours, leading to clearing skies.
At the surface a weak cold front has pushed into the far northwest part of our CWA, with a prefrontal trough axis near Tribune extending just southeast of Hill City. Thursday: A stronger negatively tilted mid level trough swings over our CWA.
144 PM EDT Wed Apr 12 2017 VFR conditions will continue throughout the TAF cycle with high pressure building in behind the departing front.
Thursday will shape up to be a mild day across the region, with upper level ridging rebounding across the northern Plains.
The winds near the surface will change to a more easterly direction by the late evening hours with a building inverted trough. Temperatures overnight will be slightly warmer with lows in the lower 40s. In the high country lows will reach into the lower to mid 30s for most areas. For Thursday the trough and upper level low will transition into SE Colorado bringing some moisture up from the south over the eastern plains. Elsewhere, over Denver a Longmont anticyclone should help to keep conditions clear and sunny for most of Thursday with light winds before the easterly push in the afternoon. Temperatures will continue to be warmer with highs reaching into the mid to upper 70s. A short wave trough will be over Nebraska and Kansas Thursday evening.
Today Through Thursday Night An upper ridge is building over the Southern Plains this morning. An upper low pressure system will be near the Pacific Northwest this afternoon and will move north tonight and Thursday as it will be blocked by the upper ridge to the east. An upper low will develop on the lee side of the Rockies late Thursday and move northeast into the Plains through late Thursday night. High pressure will continue to build over the area today and will remain over the area through Thursday. Warmer temperatures are expected with the ridge in place.
114 PM MDT Wed Apr 12 2017 Cold front lays across the Wyoming/Colorado state line area this afternoon. Temperatures are in the low 60s east of the Laramie Range with low to mid 50s west.
Paducah KY 230 PM CDT Wed Apr 12 2017 Quiet weather is expected over the next 24 hours with high pressure situated to our northeast. Winds will become southerly on Thursday, and temperatures will be even warmer in the upper 70s to lower 80s, which is around 10 degrees above normal.
With high pressure continuing to make its way ewd into the OH Valley states, this should translate into a quiet and mild night across the TN Valley. Temp trends currently in the mid/upper 70s for most locations should quickly drop off into the 60s later this evening, and eventually into the lower/mid 50s overnight under predom mostly clr skies.
The developing cold front will reach Missoula, Kalispell and the Bitterroot Valley between noon and 4 pm tomorrow afternoon bringing steady and at times, moderate valley rain.
Temp trends have begun to rebound nicely from their earlier lows this morning, with values now mainly in the lower/mid 60s compared to the mid 50s/near 60F a couple of hrs ago. Given little/any influx of cooler/drier air with this last front, seasonably warm conditions are again xpcted this afternoon, as high pressure quickly makes its way ewd across the OH Valley states. Clearing skies and light winds will help cool temperatures overnight into the lower 50s, though this is still roughly 5 degrees above normal.
Upper troughing will begin to exit stage right and ridging will begin to inch back in from the west. High pressure to the north of the area will dominate the weather pattern with a persistent easterly flow. Some coastal troughing will set up with a few showers coming from off the ocean through the weekend.
At the surface, weak low pressure was gradually taking shape over the eastern plains, leading to rather modest (dewpoints in the 30s) low level moisture return across the eastern plains.
Temperatures falling back into the lwr 60s inland a bit warmer towards the beaches.
339 PM MDT Wed Apr 12 2017 Cold front lays across the Wyoming/Colorado state line area this afternoon. Temperatures are in the low 60s east of the Laramie Range with low to mid 50s west.
Though weak, the sfc trof will none-the-less advect gradually increasing southerly moist advection thru Thu Night. The shearing of the initial wave would prevent a cold front that'll develop from the Northern to the Northwestern Plains from making sufficient SE progress with the boundary stalling as it nears the Nebraska/KS border Thu Morning. The cold front should make further SE progress, perhaps reaching the KS/OK border Sun Morning. The Front Range sfc trof will enable Southerly winds to increase considerably today, but gradually increasing moisture should keep grassland fire danger indices in check for most areas.
Cold front making its way onshore this afternoon with an excess of 3 tenths of an inch measured between 11am and 2pm at Brookings.
Meanwhile, winds are generally light and variable, but high pressure centered over the Gulf should allow for southeasterly winds through the period. There are some limiting factors however, there will be a weak ridge aloft which will generally act to suppress activity due to subsidence. Also, the lower to mid levels, from around 700mb to 400mb, remain dry.
343 PM EDT Wed Apr 12 2017 High pressure will close out the work week with drier conditions and decreasing clouds.
High pressure is over lower Michigan this afternoon. The high will keep dry weather and mild temperatures over the region tonight with lows Thursday morning from the mid 50s to around 60 degrees.
a warm weather pattern will continue with the low level thermal ridge intensifying a bit for Thursday.
The wave will then run ahead of its surface reflection/inverted trough during the afternoon and just leave some clouds around for the rest of the day through Thursday night.
Any precipitation tonight will remain well to the west of the area across the high Plains.
expect a cloudy and slightly cooler day across the local area tomorrow as the thick low level stratus is expected to persist throughout the day.
After any fog burns off, the rest of the day should be pleasant, with high pressure moving north of the region.
1112 AM MDT Wed Apr 12 2017 Weak upper ridging sits across the western to central CONUS at this time. Upper trough across the Pac NW and northern Rockies will bring active SW flow to the region. A cold front crossing the CWA will bring slight chance pops and cooler temps across northeast WY and far western SD.
155 PM EDT Wed Apr 12 2017 A cold front moves across the region today. High pressure builds tonight.
215 PM EDT Wed Apr 12 2017 High pressure dominates through Thursday.
345 PM EDT Wed Apr 12 2017 High pressure in place at the surface and aloft will provide quiet weather in the short term with just a bit of patchy fog possible in our river valleys late tonight. Bumped highs up into the low 80s for many areas.
230 PM CDT Wed Apr 12 2017 Quiet weather is expected over the next 24 hours with high pressure situated to our northeast. Winds will become southerly on Thursday, and temperatures will be even warmer in the upper 70s to lower 80s, which is around 10 degrees above normal.
By late Thursday afternoon the trough will be over the western Great Basin with a tightening pressure gradient of the forecast area.
LLJ kicks in as the quasi-cold front moves through late evening into the overnight hours.
A series of cold fronts will move through the area over the day or so. This will bring cooler temperatures tomorrow along with valley rain and mountain snow. These clouds are thanks to the upper low off the coast. This low will edge onshore over the 12 hours or so, which will push another cold front through the area.
/Issued 349 AM EDT Wed Apr 12 2017/ High pressure has moved east out of the area as the frontal boundary moves into NW GA this morning. H5 ridge builds over the region through the weekend.
An increasingly strong and warm southerly flow ahead of the upper level trough near the west coast will generate strong south winds and warm temperatures Thursday. A cold front associated with the upper trough will sweep across Utah beginning late Thursday.
12 UTC surface analysis shows a weak cold front across the Southeast from southern Mississippi northeast to near Atlanta and into the Carolina Piedmont. Vapor/IR satellite imagery show the presence of a weak upper low moving across Southwestern Alabama this morning tracking toward our region. Highs today should be in the lower 80s, except near the coast where light onshore flow will keep temperatures in the mid to upper 70s.
High pressure stretching from the Great Lakes to the mid-Atlantic will provide us with pleasant, quiet weather tonight and Thursday. Thursday night a warm front will develop from the central Great Plains to the Potomac Valley. about 10 degrees warmer than normal.
540 PM CDT Wed Apr 12 2017 Quiet weather is expected over the next 24 hours with high pressure situated to our northeast. Winds will become southerly on Thursday, and temperatures will be even warmer in the upper 70s to lower 80s, which is around 10 degrees above normal.
645 AM CDT FRI SEP 16 2016 Hit-or-miss clusters of showers/thunderstorms will affect the forecast area today, as a cold front approaches from the north and subtle upper waves approach from the west/southwest. Furthermore, weak isentropic ascent ahead of upper energy approaching from the west should allow for at least widely scattered showers/storms to eventually develop this morning over south-central and southeast KS ahead of the cold front. Thinking the convectively-reinforced cold front will tend to race southeast today faster than what NAM/GFS depict, limiting afternoon/evening thunderstorm redevelopment across the forecast area. This scenario is supported by the RAP and HRRR, and makes sense given current southward speed of outflow/cold front. Five-star weather expected across much of the area Saturday, as high pressure settles south in wake of the cold front.
Additional weakener impulses are embedded within the southwest flow ahead of this upper low and associated troffing. The surface cold front associated with this system should stay to the north/west of the forecast are for the bulk of the period, although it may begin to push into western portions of the forecast area before daybreak Saturday. A cold front will make slow progress across Illinois on Saturday, possibly only reaching I-57 by 7 pm. There will not be a significant airmass change as we head into Saturday night, however, due to the cold front not making a clean departure to the east-southeast.
Upper level low to weaken during the day and become more of an open trough by this evening. It does appear there is a time period from mid to late afternoon when a dry slot at the sfc will work into west central MN mainly Fergus Falls area and enough clearing may occur for some heating to allow sfc temps to reach lower 70s and with cooler air aloft moving in and favored location on southeast side of the upper low there is a risk of a few strong t-storms.
The cold front moving through the area later Saturday may trigger a few more thunderstorms but these will be more widely scattered and not all areas will see these storms.
An upper level ridge of high pressure over the interior Pacific Northwest will provide above normal high temperatures and sunny skies through this afternoon with today being the warmest day in reference to high temperatures experienced through the current work week.
But for now, earlier thinking is still on track with scattered convection developing near and ahead of the cold front across mainly the western portion of the area. Toward and during the afternoon hours, focus will shift to slow moving weak cold front that will move through western and northern Oklahoma.
936 AM EDT FRI SEP 16 2016 High pressure overhead this morning will shift offshore this afternoon making for a sunny day. Fair weather continues tonight as the high remains nearby. A cold front approaches late Saturday but it should remain dry during the day.
1242 PM EDT FRI SEP 16 2016 High pressure will slide southeast of the region through Saturday.
Exception is rather deep/positively tilted trough moving across the center of the country that has a closed off low over the north central portion of the country. Cold front has moved through the forecast area. Cooler high temperatures expected and changed only a little. A minor note will be the low temperatures, especially in the east. In the far eastern portion of the area the sky cover will be the least and the winds the lowest. Have pops across the entire area during the evening with the lowest over the east where that instability is the lowest.
Most of Saturday looks dry, but an upper level trough moving in from the Great Lakes region will bring increasing mid and upper level clouds.
1059 AM EDT Fri Sep 16 2016 Southerly flow on the backside of high pressure will bring an increase in humidity today, then a chance for showers and thunderstorms tonight. A muggy weekend is in store with occasional showers and thunderstorms as a cold front will be slow to advance east up the Ohio Valley. Mid level ridge to push off to the east with low traveling east from the northern plains into the western Great Lakes overnight. ranging from the lower 80s far north to the mid 80s south. Temperatures will be warmer that yesterday, ranging from the lower 80s in the north to the upper 80s across nrn KY. As the s/w works e tonight, it breaks down the upper ridge over the Ohio Valley. Temperatures on Saturday will be cooler with the pcpn and cloud cover.
748 AM EDT FRI SEP 16 2016 High pressure will slide southeast of the region through Saturday.
Upper-level ridge axis will continue to move eastward over the eastern CONUS today ahead of an upper-level trough moving through the north-central US. Mid-level flow will become more southwesterly with time in response to the trough. As mentioned in the short term, the Appalachian high pressure will eventually give way to a eastward moving upper trough. Therefore, a rain chance gradient west to east Saturday with the highest chances near the Mississippi state line.
Weak high pressure is building over Central and Southwest Montana. By Saturday afternoon winds aloft will increase ahead of an incoming Pacific storm system with an associated cold front passing through the region Saturday night.
/issued 242 AM CDT FRI SEP 16 2016/ Weak high pressure aloft across S TX extending east northeast across the Northern Gulf Coast still firmly in control of our weather pattern. Broad upper trough across the Central/Northern Plains is resulting in southwesterly flow aloft across our portion of the country attm. There is a weak inverted trough that shows up best in the elevated thetae analysis that should move northward from the SC LA Gulf Coast today which should result in enhanced diurnal tstm coverage across our eastern zones compared to our western zones where more ridging will keep pops delegated to isolated variety. Upper level ridge to our south gets pressed slightly further south on Sat allowing for a little more influence from the southwesterly flow aloft.
Low pressure is centered over the area early this morning, with showers and thunderstorms moving across the eastern CWA. Through the day, low pressure will move east across ND with continued chances for showers across mainly the northern CWA. Warmer temps aloft begin overspreading the region as well, so will see temps rebounding into the 70s and low 80s.
1002 AM EDT FRI SEP 16 2016 High pressure will extend from off the New England coast southwest through the Middle Atlantic states, including NC through Saturday. A cold front will approach from the NW late in the weekend. The cooler and moist NE low-level flow in the wake of the yesterday's evening/last nights cold front produced an extensive MVFR stratus deck across the area overnight. The ridge will extend from off New England SW into SC/GA and only slowly weaken by Saturday night. However, if stratus linger in some areas longer than expected, readings will be a bit cooler than current thinking.
1" precipitable water with light north to northeast flow behind weak frontal trough which is draped ENE-WSW across our southern counties. Weak frontal trough pushing south has reached the Treasure coast with a light north wind flow north of the boundary and light and variable winds to the south.
943 AM EDT FRI SEP 16 2016 High pressure across New england today will move off into the North Atlantic tonight. Low pressure will move from the upper Great lakes today across southern Canada this weekend.
Today will remain mostly dry, with only a very low chance of a pop-up shower near the high terrain. Southerly flow will allow temperatures to reach a few degrees warmer than yesterday's marks. A slow moving upper trough will plague the region through much of the weekend, as it nudges a weak surface boundary through.
Weak low pressure area over the offshore waters early this morning is expected to move inland during the day. Satellite imagery shows a weak mid level low/trough axis over the northwest Gulf of Mexico east of the coastal waters with scattered convection early this morning. The mid level trough axis is expected to remain over the northwest Gulf and drift to the southeast slightly on Saturday. Moisture is expected to increase over the coastal plains later today as the low pressure area moves inland with PWAT values increasing to 2 inches along the coast. But convection will develop again over the coastal waters later tonight and move inland on Saturday with the better chances rain over the Mid Coast region while drier air and building mid level ridge limits rain chances for the Coastal Bend and Brush Country.
1050 AM EDT FRI SEP 16 2016 High pressure will ridge into the forecast area from the north and Julia will linger just off the South Carolina coast through the weekend.
WV satellite showed an intense upper trough across central ND and western SD with a trough axis extending southward into western NE and northeast CO. The higher resolution models such as the WRF and exp-HRRR forecast the broad area of showers and thunderstorms across much of the CWA to weaken by 12Z and rapidly shift southeast across the CWA through the mid morning hours. The NAM, GFS and ECMWF show the widespread showers and thunderstorms across the northern and western half of the CWA to continue to expand southeast and continue into the afternoon and evening hours ahead of the the surface front and upper trough translating east across the northern and central plains. If the higher resolution models are more accurate, then POPs may be much lower across the CWA during the afternoon hours with dry conditions into the evening.
958 AM EDT FRI SEP 16 2016 With high pressure building in to the north of us a fairly strong northeasterly gradient flow will continue across the area with embedded convergent band showers impinging on the coastal areas from Saint Augustine northward.
Highs were raised a degree or 2, with most locations expected to reach the lower 90s, except mid 80s Plateau.
624 AM CDT Fri Sep 16 2016 Stacked low pressure system continues to meander over central ND this morning. Should be a nice day in the west with plenty of sunshine and highs in the lower 70s. Showers linger through the morning along and west of the Highway 83 corridor, and over eastern portions of central ND through much of the day. Cooler here as well with highs in the low to mid 60s and possibly some upper 50s around the Turtle Mountains. Will not mention it at this time but will pass along to the day shift the possibility of fog along and east of the Highway 83 corridor.
Tonight, the next cold front will move through the area. weak high pressure to bring near seasonable temperatures and moderate dewpoints for nice early fall day. Highs mostly in the 75 to 80 degree range and mins that night the lower to middle 50s with some upper 40s suggested in favored low lying areas along and especially north of I-80 corridor.
Also, looking at 12Z soundings, the still fairly strong upper level ridging over much of the area should remain in place today.
705 AM EDT FRI SEP 16 2016 Dry weather will hold through Saturday morning thanks to high pressure moving east of New England.
An upper level ridge of high pressure over the interior Pacific Northwest will provide above normal high temperatures and mostly sunny skies through this afternoon with today being the warmest day for the work week.
Upper air analysis last evening showed a broad trough over the western half of the country which had nearly zonal flow over Texas. There is an area of low pressure over the western Gulf of Mexico drifting toward the Texas coast. During this period the upper trough over the west will sharpen over the west coast while the subtropical ridge builds back over Texas.
925 AM CDT Fri Sep 16 2016 Upper low centered over south central North Dakota this morning showing up well in the radar with showers following the mid level circulation well. Stacked low pressure system continues to meander over central ND this morning. Should be a nice day in the west with plenty of sunshine and highs in the lower 70s. Showers linger through the morning along and west of the Highway 83 corridor, and over eastern portions of central ND through much of the day. Cooler here as well with highs in the low to mid 60s and possibly some upper 50s around the Turtle Mountains. Will not mention it at this time but will pass along to the day shift the possibility of fog along and east of the Highway 83 corridor.
Latest satellite imagery and upper air analysis showed the region under the upper ridge. Skies were partly cloudy to mostly clear with surface readings pushing into the lower to middle 80s. 422 AM CDT FRI SEP 16 2016 Today through Saturday night, After several days of hot and dry weather in the ArkLaMiss, we will begin to see a change in the weather pattern as the persistent southeast CONUS ridge loses some strength while energetic westerlies shift southward toward the Lower MS Valley region. Temperatures could be significantly "cooler" Saturday due to more widespread cloud cover and earlier shower/thunderstorm development that may keep some locations from reaching 90 F for the first time this month.