Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Expect highs in the low to mid 80s today with lows tonight from the mid 50s east to the mid 60s west. The upper trough that has been influencing the area will move east as upper level flow starts to flatten. This will bring an influx of warmer air from the west.
At the surface, a trough stretches over our region, with high pressure pushing in from the west. Mostly dry weather can be expected Thursday as the upper ridge rebuilds; however, can't rule out a storm or two, especially over the Black Hills.
An unseasonably strong upper-level trough over the Ohio Valley will have little impact on our sensible weather, mainly due to dry north to northeast flow.
Temperatures warmed into the lower 80s across the area today and have since hovered in the upper 70s to lower 80s under passing fair weather cumulus. Similar conditions can be expected tomorrow, perhaps a tad warmer with highs in the lower to mid 80s.
Our pattern with the trough to our east and the ridge to our west will hold steady over the next few days with E to SE flow.
Excessive Heat Warnings are in effect through Thursday as strong high pressure builds over southern Nevada and results in dangerously hot conditions across the region.
Dangerously hot weather is expected the next couple days across the Mojave Desert as strong high pressure sits overtop the region. High pressure will weaken late in the week giving way to increased southwesterly breezes and moderating temperatures.
Dry weather is expected through the short term period with a continued pattern of troughing across much of the Midwestern States and ridging across the West. Could see afternoon temperatures a degree or two higher compared to today as the upper level trough finally begins to lose its hold on the region but not expecting any significant weather pattern changes until later this week. Expect highs in the low 80s tomorrow with lows dropping into the upper 50s to low 60s tomorrow night as surface dew points gradually creep higher due to the loss of northerly to northeasterly flow. High Pressure looks to be in place at the surface east of Indiana. allowing a warmer and more humid southerly flow to the Ohio Valley.
Cold frontal boundary is currently situated near the Gulf coast, and is expected to remain mostly stationary through this TAF period.
326 AM CDT Wed Aug 4 2021 Upper troughing remains through the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys with upper ridging over the Desert Southwest. At the surface, weak upper ridging extends from the Southern Great Lakes into the Mid Mississippi Valley. By Fri morning, upper trough will extend from the Mid Mississippi Valley into the Ozark region with subsidence settling over the forecast area. At this time it appears the low/mid 70 dews will stay over southeast KS for Fri and Sat but there is some agreement that it will try and work back to the west for Sun-Mon.
/issued 213 PM CDT Tue Aug 3 2021/ We are in the midst of a pretty nice afternoon with 1:30 PM temperatures mostly in the low 80s and sunny skies. A disturbance noted on mid-level water vapor imagery over central Colorado as of 1:30 PM will continue to rotate around the periphery of an upper high currently centered over southern Nevada. This disturbance will move south over the higher terrain of New Mexico late this afternoon, supporting the development of showers and thunderstorms there.
-Scattered showers and thunderstorms today will diminish tonight -Temperatures remaining below normal The axis of longwave upper trough just to our west will shift gradually east through the period. There will be mainly scattered convection again today, and while there will be afternoon thunder around convective energy remains somewhat limited keeping the chance for stronger storms on the low side. The axis of the upper trough will shift to our east later tonight and heights will begin to rise.
313 AM CDT Wed Aug 4 2021 An upper level trough over northeast New Mexico is expected to slowly slide east southeast across the Panhandles today and this evening.
/issued 212 PM EDT Tue Aug 3 2021/ Mid to upper level troughing extends south through the Ohio River Valley and into the northeast Gulf of Mexico pushing the upper ridge over southern Florida.
Surface dewpoints prevailed in the lower to mid 60s. Afternoon highs are in the low 80s to upper 70s with dewpoint temperatures in the low 60s. Expect temperatures to drop to the low 60s tonight with light winds. Get outside while you can! Expect cooler temperatures through Thursday.
The return of southerly flow will lead to increasing humidity and slightly warmer temperatures both during the day Wednesday and overnight Wednesday night. /Issued 314 PM CDT Tue Aug 3 2021/ /Wednesday Night Onward/ A mid-level trough will swing from the Texas Panhandle into North Texas by Thursday morning. Broad ascent associated with the trough may provide just enough lift for a few showers and thunderstorms to develop by Thursday afternoon, coinciding with peak heating.
245 AM EDT Wed Aug 4 2021 An upper level trough will persist across the eastern U. Satellite imagery shows an exiting short wave trough moving northeast toward the northern NC and VA coast. Lows tonight will range in the lower to mid 60s. Meanwhile, another trough will rotate through the Tennessee Valley into the central Piedmont tomorrow afternoon. A few showers are possible just east of the mountains but by the time the trough arrives, the overwhelming majority of deeper moisture will already be located offshore and most of the global-scale guidance indicates storms dissipating before they make it into the NW Piedmont. Temperatures will be warmer tomorrow, but still below normal. Highs in the low to mid 80s, lows near normal in the mid to upper 60s.
122 AM EDT Wed Aug 4 2021 A weak trough of low pressure may trigger a few showers and thunderstorms today.
The mid-level pattern over the CONUS appears to be a bit more progressive vs the recent past, but with ridging holding over the southern CONUS during the time period.
Lows tonight are forecast in the upper 50s to lower 60s with the Twin Cities heat island remaining a couple degrees warmer. These building clouds will be caused by a mid-level trough impinging from the west. As the mid-level trough slides through MN and WI Wednesday night, forecast models develop isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms along the accompanying cold front.
310 AM EDT Wed Aug 4 2021 An upper level trough will persist across the eastern U.
328 AM EDT Wed Aug 4 2021 High pressure will continue to be over the area through the end of the week. Temperatures will become warmer and a chance of showers and storms will be possible over the weekend. High pressure will be in control through the period. An upper level trough will also be overhead and can't completely rule out an isolated shower either this afternoon or tomorrow afternoon.
651 AM EDT Wed Aug 4 2021 High pressure will continue to be over the area through the end of the week. Temperatures will become warmer and a chance of showers and storms will be possible over the weekend. High pressure will be in control through the period. An upper level trough will also be overhead and can't completely rule out an isolated shower either this afternoon or tomorrow afternoon.
630 AM CDT Wed Aug 4 2021 High pressure will continue over the area today. Today Through Thursday Night The upper level high pressure continues over the desert southwest with an upper trough over the eastern U. A short wave trough will develop in the Plains Thursday and move through Arkansas Thursday night. Highs today will be in the mid to upper 80s and just a bit warmer Thursday as southern sections approach 90 degrees.
650 AM EDT Wed Aug 4 2021 A weak trough of low pressure may trigger a few showers and thunderstorms today.
/Issued 313 AM CDT Wed Aug 4 2021/ An upper level trough over northeast New Mexico is expected to slowly slide east southeast across the Panhandles today and this evening.
As the early morning precipitation moves eastward, it is possible another line of convection will develop east of a trough at the surface and aloft.
650 AM CDT Wed Aug 4 2021 Upper troughing remains through the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys with upper ridging over the Desert Southwest. At the surface, weak upper ridging extends from the Southern Great Lakes into the Mid Mississippi Valley. By Fri morning, upper trough will extend from the Mid Mississippi Valley into the Ozark region with subsidence settling over the forecast area. At this time it appears the low/mid 70 dews will stay over southeast KS for Fri and Sat but there is some agreement that it will try and work back to the west for Sun-Mon.
(Today and tonight) A weak upper level trough tracks through the area today bringing a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly along and south of the I-10 corridor through Thursday morning. Otherwise, expect a continued benign weather pattern through the end of the week as high pressure settles in over the region.
A upper level low moving across north-central Washington will continue to allow for isolated showers and thunderstorms to develop across northwest Montana this morning. Stay weather aware this afternoon and have a way to receive warnings! High temperatures today will remain above average, with highs reaching into the 90s across western Montana and into the low 100s across central Idaho valleys.
/Issued 305 AM CDT Wed Aug 4 2021/ Temperatures below seasonal averages once again are expected today, along with hazy conditions with the high amplitude northerly flow upper pattern remaining in place. Isolated showers/thunderstorms in the higher terrain is not out of the question today, however coverage will likely remain low enough to keep mention out of the zones.
The upper ridge is pushed eastward and decreases in amplitude as a series of short wave troughs moving out of the eastern Pacific and the Gulf of Alaska move into western Canada and the northern California area Thursday evening and the northwest U.
An upper trough from the eastern Great Lakes to the central Gulf Coast will slowly move overhead today, while at the surface a broad inverted trough will line up along the western slope of the Appalachians. DCAPE is progged to be less than 1000 J/kg with weak-moderate mid-level lapse rates, lack of storm organization, and the upper trough will be positively tilted and weakening slightly. Convection will dissipate this evening with loss of daytime heating and the axis of the upper trough moving off to the east.
/issued 252 AM CDT Wed Aug 4 2021/ A weak upper level short wave trough over northeastern New Mexico is helping sustain thunderstorms on the Sacramentos as well as a weaker batch of showers in east-central New Mexico. This trough will move slowly eastward through the day with the potential for the eastern New Mexico showers to make their way into the northwestern counties later this morning. The weakness aloft should remain over the Panhandle to South Plains early evening with the potential for some isolated weak shower or thunderstorm activity developing in the vicinity of the trough, but concerns similar to those above should still be present.
Yet another quiet night across the region as we remained between upper level ridging over the western CONUS and an upper level trough to the east. Otherwise, much of today should remain nice and quiet, with highs topping out in the lower to mid 80s. A few spots could even make a run into the low 90s. The warming trend continues into the weekend as upper level ridging builds in.
Highs today will be a bit cooler than yesterday with most in the mid to upper 80s with increasing clouds and humidity. By tomorrow afternoon highs will be a bit cooler with another round of showers and thunderstorms may redevelop along the eastern edge of forecast area bringing a short period of rain chances before the activity quickly spreads east.
913 AM EDT Wed Aug 4 2021 High pressure will continue to be over the area through the end of the week. Temperatures will become warmer with a chance of showers and storms possible over the weekend. High pressure will be in control through the period. An upper level trough will also be overhead and can't completely rule out an isolated shower either this afternoon or tomorrow afternoon.
Another below average temperature day is expected for Wednesday, with high temps in the upper 80s and low 90s, as well as low temps in the low to mid 60s.
635 AM EDT Wed Aug 4 2021 An upper level trough will persist across the eastern U.
Broad troughing persists from Southeast Canada that extends south over the Ohio River Valley and across the Tennessee Valley region. Ridging was located over Nevada and over much of the Western Atlantic. Toward the surface, a weak cold front was draped across the Northern Gulf of Mexico while a weak trough was analyzed from West Virginia southwest into Eastern Alabama. Highs today will range from the mid 80s north and in the higher elevations east to readings around 90 south and west. For Thursday, an inverted low level trough will develop near a Mobile to Gadsden line. This trof will help usher in deeper moisture from the east.
/Issued 402 AM EDT Wed Aug 4 2021/ As upper trough axis stays west of the area today, some PVA or weak impulses traversing the flow could aid convective triggering. Trough energy ejects NE of the area for Thursday leaving mainly zonal flow aloft.
A pleasant morning so far as temperatures are mostly in the lower to mid 60s other than the Twin Cities heat island. This brings our first chance of rain as models develop scattered showers and thunderstorms along the cold front. Thursday will be cooler and cloudier with highs in the upper 70s and lower 80s.
The drier air from the southwest has moved in thanks to the high near the southern Great Basin. A trough just off the west CONUS coast will slowly slide eastward on Thursday, allowing for hot and dry temperatures with the ridge axis overhead.
The sky was clear across SE AZ early this morning with strong high pressure ridge over the desert SW. Thursday; The orientation of the upper ridge over the desert SW becomes more SW-NE thanks to an upper trof moving by well north of the area. With weak NE steering flow, some of these storms will move off the higher terrain into the lower elevations.
This is keeping the Atlc ridge axis surpressed south of ECFL. The mid/upper level trough across the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys will keep the aforementioned surface boundary lingering across the north Gulf and north FL through the period. The Atlc high pressure ridge axis continues southward with a weak frontal boundary draped across north FL allowing deep moisture to pool across the area.
342 AM MDT Wed Aug 4 2021 Today will be a bit more mild than yesterday as an upper high pressure system begins to build into the area. However, given the lack of large-scale forcing mechanisms and the relatively cooler and drier air in place over the region, confidence on the flash flood concern for today was too low to issue any flash flood watches. Mid-level ridging comes back into the region allowing for a much drier atmospheric column.
The upper ridge that will be over the area today will start to break down on Thursday with strong energy moving into western zones in the late afternoon and early evening.
Another cool morning across the mid state with current temps in the low to mid 60s. Upper trough continues to dig southward with slow eastward progression today, which will allow for precip chances in the east especially on the Plateau. Models still want to sneak some isolated showers and storms on the Plateau Thursday afternoon, but as the trough moves out, the story will be rising temps.
NorCal remains between high pressure centered over the Desert Southwest and trough approaching from the eastern Pacific.
635 AM CDT Wed Aug 4 2021 (Today and tonight) A weak upper level trough tracks through the area today bringing a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly along and south of the I-10 corridor through Thursday morning. Otherwise, expect a continued benign weather pattern through the end of the week as high pressure settles in over the region.
612 AM CDT Wed Aug 4 2021 Early morning satellite imagery shows increased cloud coverage over central SD, slowly moving eastwards under the influence of the ridge aloft. At the surface, a high pressure is still sitting off to our southeast, and due to the approaching wave to the west the surface pressure gradient will increase this morning leading to wind gusts up to 25 mph. Aloft, smoke looks to remain moderate/heavy, so have kept cloud coverage on the higher end to account for that.
136 PM CDT Wed Aug 4 2021 Moisture is pooling ahead of a trof moving slowly through the panhandle and into central Nebraska this afternoon. Anticipate thunderstorms will develop ahead of the trof in the destabilizing airmass late this afternoon/early this evening. Trof axis will be lingering across eastern Nebraska on Thursday and will be slow enough to keep a chance of showers/thunderstorms in the forecast generally from North Platte and Valentine eastward Thursday afternoon.
1215 PM CDT Wed Aug 4 2021 (Today and tonight) A weak upper level trough tracks through the area today bringing a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly along and south of the I-10 corridor through Thursday morning. Otherwise, expect a continued benign weather pattern through the end of the week as high pressure settles in over the region.
Dangerously hot weather is expected at least one more day as strong high pressure sits over the region. High pressure will weaken late in the week giving way to increased southwesterly breezes and moderating temperatures.
As the upper high builds, flow aloft will become northerly and drier mid-level air will begin to advect into the region resulting in mostly sunny skies. 500 mb heights will increase some tomorrow, bringing warmer temperatures than today. Further northwest, another low pressure core is expected off the BC coast NW of Prince Rupert.
The high pressure aloft producing our inland heat wave has migrated to center itself over the Las Vegas area today. Then it gets somewhat squashed Thursday by a low pressure trough going through the northwest states. All areas will begin to dial back the heat Thursday as the high pressure relaxes slightly, more noticeable west of the mountains.
1149 AM CDT Wed Aug 4 2021 Upper troughing remains through the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys with upper ridging over the Desert Southwest. At the surface, weak upper ridging extends from the Southern Great Lakes into the Mid Mississippi Valley. By Fri morning, upper trough will extend from the Mid Mississippi Valley into the Ozark region with subsidence settling over the forecast area. At this time it appears the low/mid 70 dews will stay over southeast KS for Fri and Sat but there is some agreement that it will try and work back to the west for Sun-Mon.
At the mid levels of the atms, the conv potential may be limited a bit as the 500 mb ridging starts edging into the region from the east.
1158 AM MDT Wed Aug 4 2021 Today will be a bit more mild than yesterday as an upper high pressure system begins to build into the area. However, given the lack of large-scale forcing mechanisms and the relatively cooler and drier air in place over the region, confidence on the flash flood concern for today was too low to issue any flash flood watches. Mid-level ridging comes back into the region allowing for a much drier atmospheric column.
Otherwise, Thursday will shape up to generally be a dry and hot day with less chances for precipitation as this ridge of high pressure briefly rebounds.
1105 AM EDT Wed Aug 4 2021 A weak trough of low pressure may trigger a few showers and thunderstorms today.
Upper level ridge passing overhead today. Then the low off the CA coast approaches tomorrow, bringing more shear and organization to the thunderstorms.
The upper-high is expected to weaken and reposition as a series of troughs pass by to the north of our region. An inverted trough over Sonora should keep reinforcing our low-level moisture.
Forecast soundings vary in the amount of instability, with the NAM being on the end and the GFS the low end.
Undercut guidance slightly for tonight given the recent cool mornings, but it will still be warmer tonight than we have seen the last few nights.
133 PM EDT Wed Aug 4 2021 A weak trough of low pressure may trigger a few showers and thunderstorms today.
Then the pattern change begins as upper level ridge shifts eastward into the region.
Dangerously hot weather is expected the next couple days across the Mojave Desert as strong high pressure sits overtop the region. High pressure will weaken late in the week giving way to increased southwesterly breezes and moderating temperatures. Expecting this to persist through the afternoon, with only a few clouds over the higher terrain at times.
An anomalous deep trough aloft is currently in place over the eastern CONUS with our region in its base. This trough will progress east through tonight before lifting out to the northeast on Thursday, with another trough beginning to dig into the Central Plains while progressing east. Going into tonight and Thursday the surface boundary general remains stalled just off the coast, however, there are guidance differences in whether the low is maintained over the north-Central Gulf, or organizes into a more pronounced low that heads towards the western Florida panhandle. For temps, highs through the period remain generally in the upper 80s to low 90s across the region, with the cooler temps closer to the coast.
310 PM EDT Wed Aug 4 2021 Latest analysis shows an upper level trough currently moving across the area, with a frontal boundary just off the SE and Gulf coast, with multiple areas of low pressure along the front. Additional storms are expected through this evening until the upper level trough axis moves off to the east late tonight.
Upper level ridge will remain dominant on Thursday, bringing another hot and dry day with temps into the 90s. Pacific trof will move into the northern Great Basin and resultant onset of height falls/backing winds will open the door to thunderstorm activity in our far west by afternoon.
Model forecast soundings show a more supportive environment for surface based convection tomorrow afternoon as diurnal heating/destabilization occur and mid-levels cool slightly with the approach of the trough.
This synoptic trough will continue to shift across our region Today and Tonight. The only areas where any sort of surface based convection will probably remains to the north and west of our area (nw KS and NE CO), however a few isolated more elevated storms can't be ruled out as the trough moves dead center over the DDC area in the evening bringing some weak elevated MUCAPE with it. Extensive mid level cloudiness will have an impact on the overnight temperatures, especially across the lower plains eastern sections of our forecast area (warmer lows in the mid to upper 60s). Cooler air advection and longwave radiational cooling behind the trough should ensure cooler temperatures by Wednesday morning in the 50s out west. The upper level ridge will be in place across the greater region.
The cooler dry weather will continue for tomorrow across the Mid South.
1245 PM CDT Wed Aug 4 2021 High pressure will remain over the area this afternoon and tonight. Today Through Thursday Night The upper level high pressure continues over the desert southwest with an upper trough over the eastern U. A short wave trough will develop in the Plains Thursday and move through Arkansas Thursday night. Highs today will be in the mid to upper 80s and just a bit warmer Thursday as southern sections approach 90 degrees.
A synoptic pattern shift arrives on Thursday as a longwave trough becomes the dominant feature over the central CONUS. With the base of the trough axis pushing into central TX by tomorrow afternoon and SE TX by the evening, another round of showers and storms is possible during the day though development north of I-10 will be stifled by relatively lower moisture availability (PWs look unlikely to recover to much higher than 1.