Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Trof aided an area of shsn that moved across northern WI. With much of the lower clouds clearing out this aftn, trended fcst toward a little less cloud cover over the w half tonight. Sunshine working on the lower albedo forested terrain should support temps rising into at least the lower 40s well inland over the w half. Warmer temperatures through the weekend with dry weather.
/issued 404 PM EST Thu Mar 1 2018/ Deep layered high pressure continues to hold over the region this afternoon.
Given temperatures will cool to the single digits to mid teens, freezing fog and resultant slick spots could occur overnight and for the Friday morning commute. Mid-level ridging and attendant warm temperatures continue into the weekend, but eventually the weather locally will become active as the amplified trough over the western CONUS ejects eastward across the central part of the country.
Dry and seasonal weather is expected over the weekend with plenty of sunshine as high pressure impacts the area.
A ridge in between the two systems is providing a quiet weather pattern for the time being over the Plains and most of Texas. At the surface, north winds behind this morning's cold front have veered slightly while falling below 10 KT during the past hour, and should remain in the 5 to 10 KT range overnight.
934 PM CST Thu Mar 1 2018 A strong upper-level trough is moving east into New England this evening.
/issued 250 PM CST Thu Mar 1 2018/ Dry and quiet short term conditions, as a low amplitude upper ridge passes overhead tonight followed by slowly increasing southwest flow aloft Friday into the weekend as the next big cold upper low edges across the west coast.
Skies will be clear overnight as mid level ridging pushes into the region.
The high clouds and light but persistent low level CAA will prevent temps from falling as low as they might otherwise. Upper level ridging will begin its amplification across the Plains on Friday. /10/ Friday Night through Thursday: With high pressure at the surface and ridging aloft, Friday night will have the chance to get chilly across the forecast area.
301 PM MST Thu Mar 1 2018 Aside from the outside chance for early morning freezing fog here and there, the main forecast challenge remains the upcoming storm system through this weekend. The large low pressure system off the coast of Oregon and Washington State is now beginning to impact land there. On Friday, as the storm system moves further inland over the PAC NW, it begins to break up and spread out into smaller circulations of low pressure energy.
511 PM CST Thu Mar 1 2018 The cold front has moved southeast of the PAH forecast, and with it, the precipitation.
800 PM EST Thu Mar 1 2018 A cold front will sweep across the region tonight. High pressure will build in over the weekend. A warm front is moving northward across the CWA this afternoon and its a tale of two weather regimes with cool temperatures and more stratiform rain to the north and breaks of sun with scattered convection in the south resulting in the potential for some thunderstorms this afternoon as there is very high shear across this area with some very weak instability present. Temperatures topping out about where they are at, in the mid 50s across the north to the low 70s in the south.
With the broad mid-level ridge centered over the central U.
while high pressure over the Plains is building slowly eastward. with readings in the lower 30s close to the Indiana border. Aside from a few high/thin clouds, abundant sunshine will prevail on Friday as high pressure moves across the region. as upper ridging builds across the Great Lakes/Midwest.
Upper ridging has been building over the Western Plains, and will continue to amplify over the region as the large upper low digs into the western CONUS. Temps should be in the low 30s across the west tomorrow where there will be more precip and clouds, with some upper 30s to low 40s in the east with the trees.
This lead wave is part of a much larger upper trough moving inland from the northwest coast. This low will linger just to the west of our area through the end of the week and into the first part of the weekend. The higher terrain will see stronger gusts but the amounts look to be below criteria.
For tonight, high pressure settles overhead for clear/quiet conditions with lows temperatures bottoming out in the teens and lower 20s. May have to watch for some fog as the lower boundary layer is fairly moist from snow melt. Besides a few passing mid-level clouds, a mild Friday is on tap for the area as a mid-level ridge builds in from the west.
1012 PM EST Thu Mar 1 2018 The cold front will continue to push to the east this evening. Prev Discussion-> The cold front continues to move across the forecast area this afternoon. High temperatures will be in the low to mid 40s on Friday. This will lead to decent ridging developing across our area and dry conditions through the weekend.
911 PM CST Thu Mar 1 2018 Cold front has pushed through the forecast area with drier/lower dew point air in the low levels moving in behind it, with just some high level clouds remaining. /issued 345 PM CST Thu Mar 1 2018/ Mid-afternoon sfc analysis/88D imagery show the cold front now sliding out of the sern zones with just a little light precipitation noted in its wake across lower Acadiana and coastal swrn LA. Drier air surging behind this next boundary tonight will cutoff whatever slim precip chances we already had and will in turn help lead to cooler days and nights into the weekend.
Cold front continues to make slow but steady progress south and east through our region this afternoon and should have cleared our southeast parishes by later this afternoon. Cloud cover should diminish from northwest to southeast overnight as well with drier air funneling into the region in the wake of the cold front.
Dry but windy and colder conditions will prevail tonight in the wake of a cold front. The area of low pressure that has been producing rainfall today has pushed farther east while a large area of high pressure strengthens over the Midwest. This area of high pressure will result in dry conditions for the weekend.
/00Z TAFS/ Dry air has mixed out the lower layers and have mixed surface dewpoints to mainly the 40s. Upper air analysis this morning showed a ridge bulging up from the Gulf with a shallow trough riding over it through the middle of the country. At the surface, there were a pair of cold fronts surrounding our CWA. The upper level ridge will remain in place during this period. The low level flow will start off northerly and turn to the east keeping the boundary layer dry. High temperatures Friday will also be cooler than Thursday.
508 PM CST Thu Mar 1 2018 Early-afternoon water vapor imagery depicted an intense mid-level trough off the Pacific Northwest coast with a downstream short- wave trough amplifying from the upper Great Lakes to lower Ohio Valley. Between these systems, a ridge axis stretched from the lee of the Canadian Rockies to central High Plains. The aforementioned upper-air system off the Pacific Northwest coast will gradually drift inland over the next 24-48 hours with the associated High Plains ridge edging east atop the Great Plains. In response to these developments, a lee cyclone will deepen over the High Plains with breezy to potentially windy conditions developing on Friday into the weekend. Initially, low- level moisture content will be limited with relative humidity values falling into the 25-30 percent range in snow-free areas Friday afternoon as temperatures warm into the lower to mid 50s.
Widespread wind gusts of 25 to 35 mph are expected, mainly over Fremont County, the lower elevations of the Southeast Mountains, and much of the far southeaster Plains, from the Raton Ridge to Kiowa County. Temperatures will be around 10 to 15 degrees warmer on Friday due to strong mixing.
Ample dry air at the onset of precipitation and temperatures a few degrees above freezing will keep snow totals low across the Fox Valley. Trended a couple degrees warmer. Friday will be a much simpler forecast as high pressure builds into the region. Mostly clear skies are expected, along with quiet weather and temperatures in the lower to middle 40s. Friday Night Through Thursday 500mb ridge will dominate the weather pattern over the weekend, bringing dry and mild conditions to the region.
528 PM CST Thu Mar 1 2018 Quiet weather will persist over the next day as an upper level ridge remains over the central US. Locations across the central state will be slightly cooler with highs only in the low 50s which is still well above normal for this time of year. Lows Thursday night will be in the upper 20s to low 30s, which is nearly 10 degrees warmer than the previous night.
844 PM CST Thu Mar 1 2018 High pressure building into the upper Midwest has brought a rapid decrease in wind speeds from this afternoon as pressure gradients relax across the area. while high pressure over the Plains is building slowly eastward. with readings in the lower 30s close to the Indiana border. Aside from a few high/thin clouds, abundant sunshine will prevail on Friday as high pressure moves across the region. as upper ridging builds across the Great Lakes/Midwest.
A ridge of high pressure now over the eastern Dakotas is expected to slide slowly east to over the area overnight tonight, and with ridging building aloft, expect skies to continue to clear this afternoon & evening. On Friday the ridge slides east of the area during the day, allowing southerly flow to set up with increasing high cloud cover moving into the area from the southwest. Temperatures to be about a category warmer than today, with highs in the mid 30s to low 40s.
546 PM CST Thu Mar 1 2018 General trend in the short term periods will see upper level ridging begin to build in. Not expecting anything dense as gradient winds are on the increase by the middle part of the night as an upper low off the Pacific Northwest coast begins to drive lee pressure falls to our west.
Temperatures are in the lower to mid 70s. In the low levels of the atmosphere, an Atlantic ridge of high pressure over South Florida will retreat eastward overnight. In the mid levels of the atmosphere, an area of high pressure will be centered over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico tonight. In the upper levels of the atmosphere, a ridge of high pressure will be located over the Florida Straits overnight.
An upper trough will bring a few showers and low snow levels the next few days.
Cold front is just now entering Middle Tennessee from the northwest, with rain tapering off from NW to SE ahead of the front.
528 PM CST Thu Mar 1 2018 Quiet weather is expected through tomorrow afternoon in the wake of a departing low pressure system. Gusty northwest winds will diminish after sunset tonight and gradually veer tomorrow in response to a ridge of high pressure moving across the region towards the Great Lakes. Kanofsky The combination of ridging aloft and the continued influence of a high pressure center at the surface will ensure quiet weather through most of the weekend.
946 PM CST Thu Mar 1 2018 Drier air in the low and mid levels continues to advect S into the region this evening, in wake of our cold frontal passage which has shifted off the SE TX/S LA coast. However, the water vapor and IR imagery indicates a substantial cirrus shield along the subtropical jet that lingers across much of S TX into the Lower MS Valley and SE states, but recent trends depict this cirrus shield gradually sinking ESE as drier air continues to advect E beneath the amplifying upper trough over the OH Valley and Mid-Atlantic states. The short term progs remain in agreement with the cirrus shield gradually diminishing from NW to SE overnight, as sfc ridging continues to build S into the area.
A few trailing very light showers continue across the forecast area east of I-65, and these should dissipate by 9 pm as drier cooler air filters in from the north. Currently a line of showers and gusty winds is south of I-65 and approaching the Gulf Coast associated with the cold frontal passage will continue southward then offshore into the early evening. Friday sees a low level 850mb ridge begin to build into the Southeast.
For Friday, High Plains lee troughing will deepen. Highs will be much warmer with values ranging from around 70F across the western zones to mid 60s across the southeastern zones.
Cold front has made its way east of I-65 and continues to progress across central Kentucky. Winds should die down by late evening, but we'll hold on to just shy of 10 kt through the night under cold advection as high pressure builds in. Quiet weather and seasonable temps Friday into Friday night as high pressure settles over the Ohio Valley. Dry and seasonable conditions expected this weekend as Canadian high pressure noses south across the Ohio Valley, but under upper ridging.
A cold front will move through late tonight and tomorrow morning, providing yet another focus for precipitation. After a relative lull this afternoon, precipitation will increase again tonight as the storm's cold front comes through from west to east. Rain in the low valleys will mix with or change to wet snow by morning but little snow accumulation is expected there as roads should stay wet.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 39 57 34 58 / 10 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 38 52 30 52 / 20 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 37 53 30 54 / 10 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 35 49 26 49 / 30 0 0 0 TN.
/issued 345 PM CST Thu Mar 1 2018/ Mid-afternoon sfc analysis/88D imagery show the cold front now sliding out of the sern zones with just a little light precipitation noted in its wake across lower Acadiana and coastal swrn LA. Drier air surging behind this next boundary tonight will cutoff whatever slim precip chances we already had and will in turn help lead to cooler days and nights into the weekend.
Front has pushed well into the Gulf with high pressure over the central Plains per surface analysis.
417 PM MST Thu Mar 1 2018 21z surface analysis had warm front from central MT into central SD. Water vapour had upper ridge building over the northern Plains with upper low spinning off the northwest CONUS coast. Tonight/Friday, upper/thermal ridge peaks over the CWA with steady warm air advection as upper low moves into the northwest CONUS. Warm front will push through entire CWA tonight on 30-45kt southerly low level jet east of the Black Hills. Temperatures will be elevated tonight over the higher terrain/downslope zones as well as the downstream ridges from KIEN to KICR.
A mesoscale ridge ("bubble-high") was progressing southeast with the trailing stratiform precipitation of the MCS. The cold front was entering central KY into northwestern TN.
Think these should stick around for the next 2-4 hrs with the low clouds. Around Midnight and after the low clouds with really start to scatter out so any very light precip should cease. Low temps should still range through the low to mid 30s tonight. Cold front has made its way east of I-65 and continues to progress across central Kentucky. Winds should die down by late evening, but we'll hold on to just shy of 10 kt through the night under cold advection as high pressure builds in. Quiet weather and seasonable temps Friday into Friday night as high pressure settles over the Ohio Valley. Dry and seasonable conditions expected this weekend as Canadian high pressure noses south across the Ohio Valley, but under upper ridging.
Turning Much Cooler Starting Friday Night with Building Seas and Tonight. We'll have one more night of above normal temperatures, with lows in the lower-mid 60s. VFR through 06Z or so then MVFR CIGs should develop first across northern terminals (LEE/DAB/SFB/MCO) as a cold front pushes into the area, then overspread remaining terminals around or shortly after sunrise. The pressure gradient will support 15-20 knot winds ahead of the cold front tonight, mainly from the southwest/west.
Cold front is now moving se across se Ga with a thin band of showers and wind gusts around 30 mph. Slightly cooler and drier air will move into the area with temperatures tonight dropping into the 50s across se Ga and lower 60s over ne Fl. Cold front near the Ga-Fl line will push through the ne Fl TAF sites between 02z-05z with sw winds shifting to the nw with gusts to around 25 knots along front. SW winds will shift to the nw this evening as cold front pushes se across the waters with a chance of showers.
Wind aloft will increase tonight with the passage of the cold front.
Currently a line of showers and gusty winds is south of I-65 and approaching the Gulf Coast associated with the cold frontal passage will continue southward then offshore into the early evening. Friday sees a low level 850mb ridge begin to build into the Southeast.
523 PM CST Thu Mar 1 2018 The large area of high pressure at the sfc this afternoon will slide across MN tonight, as low pressure organizes off the Rockies and the pressure gradient tightens overhead. Otherwise, the GFS has been an outlier painting light precipitation on the nose of the low level jet tonight into Friday.
Sfc pressure gradient influences should weaken as forecast valid period progresses as ridging influences become more established. These building sfc ridging influences sfc/aloft will also result in mostly SKC conditions 02/14Z-02/24Z.
1002 PM EST Thu Mar 1 2018 A cold front has moved through the area.
/issued 216 PM CST Thu Mar 1 2018/ It's a bit cooler this afternoon in the wake of a front that moved through the region this morning, and with a bit more sunshine, as high clouds have finally begun to shift east of the area. By tonight, moisture return will begin as winds veer to the east- southeast, and could result in some low clouds/fog Friday morning, especially across portions of the Permian Basin and the Lower Trans Pecos. Weak ridging will develop over the Central CONUS on Friday between a departing trough over the Northeast and another potent trough coming ashore over the Pacific Northwest. At the surface, southerly flow will return, yielding temperatures in the 60s and 70s, several degrees warmer than today.
Ahead of the high breezy northerly winds are occurring across the area this afternoon. The high will move over the area tonight will light winds and cooler conditions occurring. Highs will top out in the middle 50s to the lower 60s on Friday.
High pressure will start to build into the region tonight bringing a start of dry weather and cool temperatures to the area. High pressure will be over the upper Mississippi valley on Friday keeping things dry and cool. Friday night will be the coldest night in the forecast period as temperatures drop to or slightly below freezing over much of the eastern half of the forecast area.
The large area of high pressure at the sfc this afternoon will slide across MN tonight, as low pressure organizes off the Rockies and the pressure gradient tightens overhead. Otherwise, the GFS has been an outlier painting light precipitation on the nose of the low level jet tonight into Friday.
942 PM CST Thu Mar 1 2018 The cold front has moved southeast of the PAH forecast, and with it, the precipitation.
With high pressure now moving off to the east, a more onshore flow is progged with a moistening low-level expected to produce a little more cloudiness tomorrow morning. Dry weather is anticipated through the period although moisture is expected to increase beginning tonight as broad high pressure ridge lifts north of the area.
Otherwise, mostly clear skies to prevail with high temperatures forecast to climb into the lower 70s. /issued 546 AM CST Mon Nov 27 2017/ For the 27/12Z TAF period, VFR conditions continue to dominate as high pressure remains anchored at the surface.
Strong low level warm advection will continue through the overnight hours and will likely result in low temperatures 5 to 8 degrees warmer than this morning. This will intensify the flow in the low-levels, improving the quality of the moisture within the boundary layer. As the disturbance swings through Oklahoma Tuesday night, it will tug a cold front into North Texas.
Upstream high temps today in the 60s over IN/IL/IA lend high confidence in siding with the warmer guidance over SE Michigan for Tuesday. Quick-moving cold front will bring a 2-3 hour window for light showers between 21-03z followed by aggressively building high pressure.
A strengthening lee side trough of low pressure on the high Plains will bring strong south winds to the region today and tonight. /Issued 336 AM CST Mon Nov 27 2017/ Current water vapor imagery and H5 heights show broad upper ridge building into the Central Plains this morning. Fire weather concerns will continue into Tuesday ahead of incoming cold front.
With weak flow, clear sky, and dry air, believe that a strong nocturnal inversion should keep winds calm across the lower elevations with light southerly winds across higher terrain after midnight as 925-850mb southerly winds increase to 10-15 knots. This should keep the higher terrain more mixed out for most of the night with coldest temperatures in protected valleys and lower elevations by sunrise. The increased southerly flow and upper ridging will continue to keep the area under a mostly clear sky and abundant sunshine on Tuesday with temperatures expected to be about 4-5 degrees warmer than on Monday.
325 PM CST Mon Nov 27 2017 Not a whole lot happening at the surface in this period despite a warm front moving through. The parent low of the warm front is located way up in Manitoba and it will circle a cold front across the area on Tuesday, but again due to the distance from the low and a dry air intrusion, not expecting much in terms of precip here except a few -shsn near the Canadian Border. Temps remain fairly isothermal despite the normal diurnal tendency until the cold front passes Tuesday afternoon. Several troughs will move through the region, but deep Pacific or Gulf moisture return is limited.
A cold front will enter the Big Country late Tuesday afternoon. Aloft, An upper level ridge currently over Texas will be replaced by a short wave trough moving by to our north by 29/00Z. Lows tonight will be in the lower to mid 50s and highs Tuesday will mainly be in the mid 70s.
343 PM CST Mon Nov 27 2017 Cold front extending from Manitoba south into northeast ND, and then back southwest through south central ND and into western South Dakota. Temperatures were under performing in light winds ahead of the cold front, but actually increase with the mixing associated with the front. Much cooler Tuesday, but actually still above normal with temperatures ranging from the mid 30s around the Turtle Mountains to the mid 40s southwest and south central, under mostly sunny skies.
202 PM EST Mon Nov 27 2017 High pressure will bring mainly fair weather for much of the rest of the week. As the high moves east, a southwest flow will develop along with moderating temperatures. Satellite shows the low clouds have dissipated, meanwhile some mid and high clouds are streaming down out of Canada under the NW flow aloft. Sprawling high pressure will keep us dry with the partly cloudy skies and a diminishing wind. Lows will average in the low 30s which will be several deg warmer than normal over western areas, and near normal over the SE. The low level flow will become southwesterly on Tuesday bringing milder air while ridging keeps the sun shining.
239 PM EST Mon Nov 27 2017 High pressure slowly shifts off the coast through Tuesday.
Otherwise, mostly clear skies to prevail with high temperatures forecast to climb into the lower 70s.