Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
923 PM EDT MON AUG 17 2015 ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL INTO LATE WEEK WHILE AN INLAND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AND WEAK COLD FRONT EVENTUALLY APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST THE CORRIDOR FROM ROUGHLY TYBEE ISLAND NORTH TO THE CHARLESTON METRO AREA IS THE MOST LIKELY AREA TO SEE MEASURABLE RAINFALL EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AS THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW VEERS TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST. LOWS FROM THE LOWER-MID 70S INLAND WITH MID-UPPER 70S COAST LOOK ON TRACK.
657 PM CDT MON AUG 17 2015 WEAK AND OPEN UPPER LOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THE WEAK UPPER LOW AND THE COLD FRONT ARE DRIVING THE WEATHER FOR CENTRAL ILLINOIS, WITH WEAK VERTICAL ASCENT OF A HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS. WITH THE COLD FRONT EDGING TOWARDS THE AREA, CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AS WELL AS THE CHANCES FOR RAIN. A LOW PRESSURE AREA WITH ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE PLAINS AND CLOSER TO THE AREA. AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT.
A TROUGH GRAZING NORTHEAST UTAH WILL SEND A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. THIS WAVE NUDGED ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THROUGH MUCH OF UTAH. CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH DRIFTS WEST TOWARD SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA ON TUE KEEPING UTAH UNDER A DRY NW FLOW. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY/S.
SOUTH WINDS CONTINUE TO MOISTEN THE LOW LEVELS AND ALLOW FOR MUGGY CONDITIONS WITH DEW POINTS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S. LOWS WILL ONLY SETTLE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S ON TUESDAY MORNING WITH MAYBE A FEW ISOLD UPPER 60S OVER THE FAR NORTHERN TIER OF OUR CWA IN SE OK AND ADJACENT SW AR. /ISSUED 204 PM CDT MON AUG 17 2015/ A COUPLE OF WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARIES COMBINED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE ARKLATEX ALLOWING FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY IN THE LOWER 90S WITH LOW-LEVEL CUMULUS FIELD COVERING THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. BECAUSE THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVERNIGHT.
1002 PM MDT MON AUG 17 2015 THE DRY COLD FRONT WORKED THROUGH THE I-70 CORRIDOR AROUND 8-10PM. WITH UPSTREAM TROUGH OVER THE NRN ROCKIES APPROACHING THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. STORMS WILL NOT BE FAVORED IN THIS REGION AS THE MOIST ENVIRONMENT GETS PUSHED EASTWARD BY UPSTREAM TROUGH. COOLER AND MUCH DRIER AIR UNDER NW FLOW OVER THE AREA TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD RESULT IN MAX TEMPERATURES 5-10 DEGREES F LOWER THAN TODAY.
1018 PM EDT MON AUG 17 2015 THE SOUTH FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING HIGH MOISTURE TO THE FORECAST AREAS THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. THE MOISTURE IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTH FLOW CIRCULATING AROUND OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE. 25 OF AN INCH THROUGH TONIGHT WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS MAINLY TOWARDS THE UPSTATE. OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 70S. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL RETROGRADE WESTWARD AND PW VALUES WILL REMAIN HIGH THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS KEEP UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO THE WEST OF THE AREA WITH WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW OVER SC. A COUPLE OF WEAK SHORT WAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE DURING THE TAF PERIOD ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTH FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE.
1041 PM EDT MON AUG 17 2015 CURRENTLY - A BROAD ATLANTIC RIDGE STRETCHES WESTWARD INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS RIDGE IS SUPPORTING GENTLE TO MODERATE EAST BREEZES ACROSS THE KEYS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOWER 80S WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID 70S. GENTLE TO MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST BREEZES WILL PREVAIL ON KEYS WATERS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS A BROAD RIDGE REMAINS WELL NORTH OF OUR AREA.
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEATHER DISTURBANCE ALOFT ANOTHER CANADIAN COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE BORDER AFTER MIDNIGHT SO HAVE ADJUSTED WINDS IN THE FAR NW TO REFLECT THAT THINKING. FORECAST LOWS FOR TONIGHT LOOK PRETTY GOOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE BIG HOLE VALLEY WHERE THE LOW MONDAY MORNING AT WISDOM WAS 27 AND DO NOT EXPECT MUCH CHANGE FROM THAT TONIGHT AS SKIES SHOULD REMAIN CLEAR OR MOSTLY CLEAR IN THAT AREA.
518 PM MDT MON AUG 17 2015 ADVANCING COLD FRONT/COLD POOL FROM THE NORTHEAST HAS CLEARED ST FRANCIS AND COLBY AND RAPIDLY HEADING TOWARDS THE GLD AREA. MESOANALYSIS INDICATES STRONG CINH IN COOLER AIR TO THE NORTH. EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOW STRENGTHENING TROUGH ACROSS MONTANA WITH SHARP PV HEIGHT ANOMALY DIGGING INTO NORTHWESTERN WYOMING. AS THE UPPER LOW DEEPENS AND EVENTUALLY CLOSES OFF OVER NEBRASKA DRY SLOT/SUBSIDENT REGION WILL MOVE OVER OUR CWA WHICH SHOULD RAPIDLY DECREASE ANY SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. STRONG COLD FRONT WILL DROP DOWN ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY MORNING AND COMBINED WITH INCREASING SUBSIDENCE BRING MILD/WINDY (VERY FALL-LIKE) CONDITIONS TO OUR CWA.
NEXT DRY UPPER TROUGH OF INTEREST MOVES INTO OREGON BY THE WEEKEND BUT LATEST TRENDS SUGGEST IT SLIDES INTO THE GREAT BASIN WHICH WOULD SET UP ANOTHER ROUND OF WARM TO HOT WEATHER WITH THE THERMAL TROUGH SHIFTING TO THE COAST. KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH. WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WILL STRENGTHEN IN THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK AS THE THERMAL TROUGH SHIFTS EAST.
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 70 83 72 85 / 80 60 60 70 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 69 82 71 84 / 70 60 60 60 OAK RIDGE, TN 70 80 70 84 / 70 60 60 60 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 69 80 67 83 / 70 60 50 60.
644 PM CDT MON AUG 17 2015 UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSING THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES THIS AFTERNOON. MAIN FOCUS WILL BE THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AS IT DIGS ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS OVERNIGHT AND TOMORROW. MODELS IN BETTER AGREEMENT ON CREATING A CLOSED LOW BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON OVER CENTRAL S DAKOTA. INSTABILITY/SHEAR ARE NOT GREAT HOWEVER FREEZING LEVEL IS FAIRLY LOW /LESS THAN 12K FT/ SO STRONGER STORMS COULD PRODUCE SOME HAIL. TOMORROW MORNING THE COMPLEX SHOULD BE PUSHING EAST AND MODELS HAVE SOME LINGER ACTIVITY AROUND THE LOW. COLD AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH AND CLOUDS GOING TO KEEP TEMPS DOWN AGAIN.
STEEP HEIGHT FALLS DEVELOPING IN THE HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT ALONG WITH DEEPENING CYCLOGENESIS IN NORTHEAST COLORADO SET UP FOR INCREASING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES OVERNIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ON TUESDAY. TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO WRAP UP TUESDAY NIGHT AS AXIS PASSES ACROSS THE CWA WITH ALMOST A.
COOLER MIDLEVEL TEMPS FARTHER NORTH INTO EAST CENTRAL WY COULD RESULT IN A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS THROUGH LATE EVENING ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE NORTHERN COMPLEX OF STORMS. NIOBRARA COUNTIES IN EAST CENTRAL WYOMING AND THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE HAS BEGUN TO BREAK OUT WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE LOW 70S AS OF 1 PM. THERE IS A BRIEF PERIOD THIS EVENING BEFORE THE SURFACE FRONT/TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHERN CWFA WHERE WE SEE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS.
1237 AM EDT TUE AUG 18 2015 A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH OVERNIGHT THEN STALL ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE TUESDAY.
742 PM EDT MON AUG 17 2015 THE SOUTH FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING HIGH MOISTURE TO THE FORECAST AREAS THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. THE MOISTURE IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTH FLOW CIRCULATING AROUND OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE. 25 OF AN INCH THROUGH TONIGHT WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS MAINLY TOWARDS THE UPSTATE. CLOUDINESS FAVORS THE WARMER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE TONIGHT. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL RETROGRADE WESTWARD AND PW VALUES WILL REMAIN HIGH THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS KEEP UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO THE WEST OF THE AREA WITH WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW OVER SC. A COUPLE OF WEAK SHORT WAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE DURING THE TAF PERIOD ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTH FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE.
AR HAS BEEN IN BETWEEN UPPER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING TO THE SE AND A W TO NW UPPER FLOW OVER THE UPPER PLAINS.
942 PM CDT MON AUG 17 2015 VERY WEAK UPPER TROUGHING REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA. MEANWHILE, EXPECT THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO PUSH FURTHER TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OVERNIGHT, AS UPPER LEVEL LOW LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD AND WEAKENS.
732 PM EDT MON AUG 17 2015 A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH TONIGHT AND THEN STALL ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE TUESDAY.
/ISSUED 326 PM CDT MON AUG 17 2015/ THE NEXT FEW DAYS SHOULD BRING COOLER AND WETTER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS FOR MID/LATE AUGUST.
The hottest weather will be early in the week, then cooler, near normal temperatures are expected from mid-week on. We should get a better stratus layer building into the Bay Area tonight to help start to send some cooler air in through the delta.
NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN NWLY FLOW ALOFT TUESDAY WILL BE WEAKER THAN TODAY/S TROUGH SO LESS WINDY TUESDAY.
COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO PASS KDHT AND KGUY AROUND 16Z TUESDAY. GENERALLY CLEAR SKY EXPECTED BEHIND COLD FRONT. COLD FRONT SHIFTS SURFACE WIND TO NORTH AROUND 16Z TUESDAY AT KDHT AND KGUY. TOMORROW THE AREA WILL SEE A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AS WELL.
FOCUSED ALONG THE LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY. /ISSUED 326 PM CDT MON AUG 17 2015/ THE NEXT FEW DAYS SHOULD BRING COOLER AND WETTER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS FOR MID/LATE AUGUST.
/ISSUED 942 PM CDT MON AUG 17 2015/ VERY WEAK UPPER TROUGHING REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA.
UPPER IMPULSE RIDING OVER THE RIDGE TO THE SOUTH ALONG WITH SEABREEZES/BOUNDARIES PRODUCED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE EAST OF THE AREA WILL MAINTAIN AN S TO SE FLOW THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
939 PM EDT MON AUG 17 2015 A SMALL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT WITH WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUING. A SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTH ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
/ISSUED 204 PM CDT MON AUG 17 2015/ A COUPLE OF WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARIES COMBINED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE ARKLATEX ALLOWING FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY IN THE LOWER 90S WITH LOW-LEVEL CUMULUS FIELD COVERING THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. BECAUSE THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVERNIGHT.
WEAK AND OPEN UPPER LOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THE WEAK UPPER LOW AND THE COLD FRONT ARE DRIVING THE WEATHER FOR CENTRAL ILLINOIS, WITH WEAK VERTICAL ASCENT OF A HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS. WITH THE COLD FRONT EDGING TOWARDS THE AREA, CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AS WELL AS THE CHANCES FOR RAIN. A LOW PRESSURE AREA WITH ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE PLAINS AND CLOSER TO THE AREA. AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT.
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES COOL HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES BROAD TROUGH OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS WITH POTENT SHORT WAVE DIGGING OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THE HIGHEST CHANCES ALONG THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE STATE. WHILE AREAS TO THE NORTH MAY PUSH INTO THE LOWER 70S. AS A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES DIGGING EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
AN UPPER LOW OVER THE MID SECTION OF THE COUNTRY WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SCT SHRA/TSRA ACROSS THE TAF SITES FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC BASIN AND TROUGH OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL KEEP US UNDER SOUTHERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.
RIDGE AXIS WILL SETTLE A BIT SOUTH RESULTING IN A LIGHTER WIND FLOW AND SLOWER SEA BREEZE.
WED-THU: DRIER AND MUCH COOLER AIR WILL FILTER IN ON WED WITH WEAK DOWNSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPING ON WED. AFTER RIDGE PASSAGE WED NIGHT. RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS ON THU WITH WARMER. ANOTHER SHOT OF COOLER AIR IS EXPECTED ON MON IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT. WITH RENEWED ISOLATED-SCATTERED STRONG-SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE TO THE WEST ALONG THE COLD FRONT IN CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL KS (21-00Z TIMEFRAME).
ALOFT SW 15-30KTS AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH WITH A FROPA MID WEEK WITH SCT/NUM TSTMS. SOUTH WINDS CONTINUE TO MOISTEN THE LOW LEVELS AND ALLOW FOR MUGGY CONDITIONS WITH DEW POINTS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S. LOWS WILL ONLY SETTLE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S ON TUESDAY MORNING WITH MAYBE A FEW ISOLD UPPER 60S OVER THE FAR NORTHERN TIER OF OUR CWA IN SE OK AND ADJACENT SW AR. /ISSUED 204 PM CDT MON AUG 17 2015/ A COUPLE OF WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARIES COMBINED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE ARKLATEX ALLOWING FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY IN THE LOWER 90S WITH LOW-LEVEL CUMULUS FIELD COVERING THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. BECAUSE THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVERNIGHT.
1016 PM EDT MON AUG 17 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST AS A DIFFUSE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY.
833 PM EDT MON AUG 17 2015 SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING AS A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT.
Upper level ridging across the southern tier of states is interrupted by a weak trough over the Southern Plains. Surface analysis shows high pressure centered off the Mid Atlantic coast with a weak trough over the western FL Peninsula.
1144 PM CDT MON AUG 17 2015 UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSING THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES THIS AFTERNOON. MAIN FOCUS WILL BE THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AS IT DIGS ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS OVERNIGHT AND TOMORROW. MODELS IN BETTER AGREEMENT ON CREATING A CLOSED LOW BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON OVER CENTRAL S DAKOTA. INSTABILITY/SHEAR ARE NOT GREAT HOWEVER FREEZING LEVEL IS FAIRLY LOW /LESS THAN 12K FT/ SO STRONGER STORMS COULD PRODUCE SOME HAIL. TOMORROW MORNING THE COMPLEX SHOULD BE PUSHING EAST AND MODELS HAVE SOME LINGER ACTIVITY AROUND THE LOW. COLD AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH AND CLOUDS GOING TO KEEP TEMPS DOWN AGAIN.
WED-THU: DRIER AND MUCH COOLER AIR WILL FILTER IN ON WED WITH WEAK DOWNSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPING ON WED. AFTER RIDGE PASSAGE WED NIGHT. RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS ON THU WITH WARMER. ANOTHER SHOT OF COOLER AIR IS EXPECTED ON MON IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT. ISOLATED-SCATTERED STRONG-SEVERE STORMS MAY REDEVELOP TO THE WEST ALONG THE COLD FRONT IN CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL KS IN THE 21-00Z TIMEFRAME.
1004 PM EDT MON AUG 17 2015 A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH TONIGHT AND THEN STALL ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE TUESDAY.
STILL EXPECTING BEST CHANCE AT PRECIP TO BE AT THE LOWER ACADIANA TERMINALS WHERE COMBO OF BEST MOISTURE AND SEA/BAY BREEZES.
941 PM EDT MON AUG 17 2015 A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE HOT HUMID AND HAZY CONDITIONS THROUGH MID WEEK.
709 PM EDT MON AUG 17 2015 A SMALL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT WITH WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUING. A SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTH ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA TUESDAY EVENING.
538 PM CST FRI NOV 27 2015 QUIET WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND AS A STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO MID/UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE THE MAIN FEATURE OF NOTE IS THE STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED OVER SOUTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS HIGH GRADUALLY MIGRATES EASTWARD INTO THE MID/UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IT WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE LOW TEENS TO SINGLE DIGITS. COLDEST FROM THE TWIN PORTS EAST ACROSS NORTHWEST WISCONSIN WHERE THE LOW-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IS EXPECTED TO BE OVERNIGHT. HIGHS IN THE LOW 30S ON SATURDAY.
COLD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MEANDER AROUND THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND FOR CONTINUED VERY COLD TEMPERATURES AND A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OVER EASTERN NEVADA.
Look for temperatures to slowly rise above freezing Saturday afternoon with precip becoming all rain at the terminals except for possible KHOB. Latest sfc analysis shows the cold front has made it to the Presidio Valley/Big Bend, a little faster than models anticipated. Only limiting factor attm is sfc temps, which will hover right around freezing overnight for many locations. Further south/west, we've opted to merge the watch with the advisory, mainly to account for light ice accumulations overnight as freezing temps are reached.
526 PM CST FRI NOV 27 2015 INCREASING CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW AND LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE HEADLINE THE SHORT TERM FORECAST. THIS ACTIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THE UPPER LOW MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
656 PM EST FRI NOV 27 2015 COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM SE LOWER MI TO NW AR WILL CONTINUE TO SAG VERY SLOWLY SOUTHEAST. THERE WAS ANOTHER LARGE TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE RIDGES AND VALLEYS LAST NIGHT. TONIGHT THE COLDER VALLEY LOCATIONS WILL ONLY BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN RIDGE LOCATIONS. CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES A LITTLE COOLER ON SATURDAY THAN TODAY. A LARGE UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. WHICH WILL PULL THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTH AS A WARM FRONT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THE AIRMASS DRY. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL GENERALLY KEEP THE AIRMASS DRY WITH CLEAR SKIES.
632 PM CST FRI NOV 27 2015 INCREASING CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW AND LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE HEADLINE THE SHORT TERM FORECAST. THIS ACTIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THE UPPER LOW MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
823 PM EST FRI NOV 27 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SLOWLY TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. COLD FRONT ABOUT TO ENTER NW COUNTIES AT 02Z WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS TO THE SE THROUGH SAT. SINCE THE SFC REFLECTION OF THE LOW PRESSURE IS SO WEAK AND THE DRIVING FORCE IS A FAST-MOVING THING. IT MAY EITHER BUBBLE UP SOME LIGHT RAIN INTO THE NORTH - OR THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COULD MAKE FOR SOME DZ. COLD FRONT SAGS TO THE SOUTH OF PA WITH DIMINISHING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTH.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH SE TX SAT. WITH HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENING OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. AND THE APPROACH OF LOW PRESSURE AND ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT OVER EAST TEXAS.
842 PM EST FRI NOV 27 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL SINK SOUTHWARD TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT.
936 PM CST FRI NOV 27 2015 Added Creek and Washington counties to the freezing rain advisory for tonight based on current observations and hi res model sfc temp forecast for the next several hours. however radar trends showing expanding area of light/moderate freezing rain from southwest into north central Oklahoma. Sfc freezing line running from about Copan to Oilton to Chandler right now per OK Mesonet. THE TEMPERATURE AT KBVO IS NEAR FREEZING. WE DO NOT EXPECT BUT IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN COULD OCCUR THERE. Thus, will keep the freezing rain advisory where it is now, but as mentioned even a one degree drop will require expansion to the southeast.
803 PM EST FRI NOV 27 2015 RAIN CHANCES RETURN TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE ADVANCE AND PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. REGIONAL OBSERVATIONS INDICATE A FAIRLY ABRUPT SHIFT IN THE WIND TO THE NORTH ALONG A SLOWLY SOUTHWARD SAGGING COLD FRONT THAT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL INDIANA TO THE CLEVELAND AREA. MODEL PROJECTIONS INDICATE MID AND UPPER FLOW WILL START TO BECOME INCREASINGLY PARALLEL TO THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE SLOW DISPLACEMENT OF THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET STREAK ON THE DOWNSTREAM SIDE OF THE UPPER WAVE WILL BE THE MAIN FACTOR IN THE SOUTHWARD SLOG OF THE COLD FRONT. COOLER/SEASONAL TEMPS WILL FILTER OVR THE NRN COUNTIES AND SWD FOR THE START OF THE NEW WEEK.
/ISSUED 317 PM CST FRI NOV 27 2015/ THE SURFACE FREEZING LINE HAS SHIFTED SLOWLY EAST/SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY. AND SLEET REPORTS SUGGEST THAT THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE MAY BE SOMEWHAT COOLER THAN THE MODELS ACKNOWLEDGE. WITH THE FARTHER EAST/SOUTHEAST PROGRESSION OF SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES. AND SLIPPERY BRIDGES/OVERPASSES. THE FREEZING LINE SHOULD EDGE BACK WEST/NORTH TOMORROW. BUT FREEZING RAIN WILL CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF THE ICE STORM WARNING AREA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS NORTH OF THE FREEZING LINE ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TOMORROW AFTERNOON. DEPENDING ON THE POSITION OF THE SURFACE FREEZING LINE AND SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION.
556 PM CST FRI NOV 27 2015 The cold front draped across the eastern half of the country has almost made it all the way through ILXs area this afternoon, and is currently in the vicinity of I-70. The forward progression of the cooler air is also working against the rainfall as it is much drier than the airmass over Central Illinois. Even in the NW where the rain chances may recede after midnight, the low clouds and potential for a misty night remain. Forecast soundings not very supporting of any precip further north during the day so we will see a gradual shift south with the higher POPs as the boundary gets a nudge to the south by afternoon.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA THIS EVENING WITH RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS FROM FLAGSTAFF WESTWARD. LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL HAVE AT LEAST TWO MORE S/WVS MOVE THROUGH NORTHERN ARIZONA THIS WEEKEND.
934 PM CST FRI NOV 27 2015 SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE GULF ARE STREAMING INTO SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS THIS EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH SE TX SAT. WITH HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENING OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. AND THE APPROACH OF LOW PRESSURE AND ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT OVER EAST TEXAS.
HI PRES RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLC REMAINS THE DOMINANT WX FEATURE FOR THE FL PENINSULA. THE HI PRES RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN A DEEP CAP ON THE LCL AIRMASS WITH LAPSE RATES AVERAGING 4. SCA CONDITIONS PREVAIL AS THE PERSISTENT HI PRES RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLC MAINTAINS A MODERATE TO FRESH NE BREEZE ACRS THE LCL ATLC.
545 PM EST FRI NOV 27 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SLOWLY TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. SINCE THE SFC REFLECTION OF THE LOW PRESSURE IS SO WEAK AND THE DRIVING FORCE IS A FAST-MOVING THING. IT MAY EITHER BUBBLE UP SOME LIGHT RAIN INTO THE NORTH - OR THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COULD MAKE FOR SOME DZ. COLD FRONT SAGS TO THE SOUTH OF PA WITH DIMINISHING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTH.
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES TO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO HAS BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY TODAY AND IS EXPECTED THAT IT WILL STAY OVER THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND ON SATURDAY.
518 PM EST FRI NOV 27 2015 RAIN CHANCES RETURN TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE ADVANCE AND PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. REGIONAL OBSERVATIONS INDICATE A FAIRLY ABRUPT SHIFT IN THE WIND TO THE NORTH ALONG A SLOWLY SOUTHWARD SAGGING COLD FRONT THAT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL INDIANA INTO NORTHWEST OHIO. MODEL PROJECTIONS INDICATE MID AND UPPER FLOW WILL START TO BECOME INCREASINGLY PARALLEL TO THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE SLOW DISPLACEMENT OF THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET STREAK ON THE DOWNSTREAM SIDE OF THE UPPER WAVE WILL BE THE MAIN FACTOR IN THE SOUTHWARD SLOG OF THE COLD FRONT. COOLER/SEASONAL TEMPS WILL FILTER OVR THE NRN COUNTIES AND SWD FOR THE START OF THE NEW WEEK.
526 PM MST FRI NOV 27 2015 CURRENT COVERAGE OF PRECIP OVER WRN CO AND ERN UT ASSOCIATED WITH VORTICITY MAXIMIA ROTATING AROUND THE GREAT BASIN CUT-OFF LOW HAS INCREASED AND MODELS KEEP THIS AREA UNDER PRECIPITATION IN LARGE PART FOR THE NEXT 6 HOURS. THE CLOSED LOW IN ITS RETROGRADE WEST TODAY IS PULLING ENERGY A LITTLE FURTHER WEST THAN IT HAS BEEN THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. BUT THE NAM12 ACTUALLY CLOSED IT OFF AT 500 MB OVER SW WYOMING THIS MORNING AND IS PROJECTING THIS TROUGH TO BECOME THE STRONGER COMPONENT OF THE SYSTEM TONIGHT. THE OTHER MODELS CATCH UP WITH THIS AND BY LATE SAT NIGHT THE SW COMPONENT OF THIS MULTI-CENTERED TROUGH THAT EXTENDS OVER UTAH WILL BE WEAKEN AND BE DRAWN EAST BEGINNING LATE SAT NIGHT.
630 PM EST FRI NOV 27 2015 RAIN CHANCES RETURN TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE ADVANCE AND PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. REGIONAL OBSERVATIONS INDICATE A FAIRLY ABRUPT SHIFT IN THE WIND TO THE NORTH ALONG A SLOWLY SOUTHWARD SAGGING COLD FRONT THAT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL INDIANA INTO NORTHWEST OHIO. MODEL PROJECTIONS INDICATE MID AND UPPER FLOW WILL START TO BECOME INCREASINGLY PARALLEL TO THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE SLOW DISPLACEMENT OF THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET STREAK ON THE DOWNSTREAM SIDE OF THE UPPER WAVE WILL BE THE MAIN FACTOR IN THE SOUTHWARD SLOG OF THE COLD FRONT. COOLER/SEASONAL TEMPS WILL FILTER OVR THE NRN COUNTIES AND SWD FOR THE START OF THE NEW WEEK.