Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
a cold front will shift winds to the northeast by late morning. /ISSUED 405 AM CDT Tue Mar 17 2015/ WV imagery shows a broad, upper-lvl ridge extending from the Gulf Coast NW to the ID panhandle, interrupted by a cut-off low over Sinaloa to the SW. Satellite imagery already shows probable convection developing on the east side of the trough, w/models bringing this activity north thru the Big Bend area later today into an area of upper-lvl divergence. Meanwhile, to the north, sfc analysis shows a cold front entering the Texas Panhandle, and models peg fropa at KMAF shortly after 18Z. This will enhance convection moving up from the south, especially overnight as the trough moves thru the FA. Given the cold front, precip, and cloud cover, temps this afternoon should come in well-blo normal.
1036 AM CDT TUE MAR 17 2015 GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL WEAKEN DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. CLEAR SKIES TODAY SHOULD YIELD HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE FROM THE NRN PLAINS TO NRN IL. 925-850 MB TEMPS SUGGEST HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S TODAY.
THIS MORNING THROUGH TONIGHT A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO TRACK SOUTH THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS MORNING. COLD AIR IS QUICKLY FILTERING IN BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT. THE CONTINUED COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND DOWNWARD ISENTROPIC MOTION WILL LEAD TO BREEZY CONDITIONS TODAY. MAKING DAYTIME TEMPERATURES FEEL 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN THE AMBIENT TEMPERATURES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TONIGHT. BRINGING A PUSH OF DRY AIR WHICH SHOULD CLEAR OUT MANY OF THE CLOUDS THIS EVENING AS THE HIGH CAUSES WINDS TO SUBSIDE. GIVEN THE IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS AND LIGHTER WINDS WENT ON THE LOW SIDE OF THE MOS GUIDANCE NUMBERS. GIVING WAY TO A FLATTING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SLIDING EAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY EVENING/NIGHT.
A WEAK VERY COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT PUSHES SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 76 46 63 48 / 10 10 10 70 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 73 40 59 45 / 10 10 10 70 OAK RIDGE, TN 73 40 59 43 / 10 0 10 70 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 67 35 57 40 / 20 0 10 70.
937 AM EDT TUE MAR 17 2015 COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO AND NW PA THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION TODAY WILL BRING LIGHT WINDS. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATER TONIGHT. A CLOSED LOW AT 700 MB.
A DECENT COLD FRONT STRETCHES FROM EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN CANADA THROUGH CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER ARKANSAS ALONG THE FRONT. SHORT RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A WEAK TROUGH AXIS OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY AHEAD OF THE FRONT FOCUSING SOME UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF SCATTERED CLOUD COVER THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE EARLY THIS EVENING (~00Z) SHIFTING WINDS FROM NW TO N AND INTRODUCING A CIG OF ~035AGL BEHIND THE FRONT. OTHERWISE A CDFNT EXTENDED ACROSS CENTRAL MO WHILE A CLOSED UPPER LOW WAS OVER MEXICO. OUR NEXT WX MAKER WILL BE THE UPPER LOW.
940 AM PDT TUE MAR 17 2015 A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS AND A COOLING TREND TO THE AREA TODAY. A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTHWEST WILL BRING INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 80S ACROSS SOME OF THE WARMER VALLEY AREAS (WHICH IS STILL AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR). THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ALSO HELP TO INDUCE A WELL DEFINED EDDY CIRCULATION ACROSS THE INNER COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT. THE CENTER OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EASTWARD TO NEAR THE LOS ANGELES/ORANGE COUNTY BORDER.
MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL SHIFT SWD TODAY WHILE MID LEVEL TROUGH WORKS OFF THE NERN U. MODERATE RISK POSSIBLE FOR WED AS FLOW TURNS ONSHORE BEHIND A COLD FRONT.
A STRETCHING AND WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH NEAR 130W THIS MORNING WILL WEAKEN FURTHER WHILE MOVING INLAND AND ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH AND AFTERNOON HEATING WILL KEEP VARYING AMOUNTS OF SHOWERS GOING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THE WEAKENED UPPER TROUGH WILL EXIT THE REGION OVERNIGHT. UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD IN LATE WEDNESDAY, WITH WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEING FAIR, DRY AND COOL.
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WAS OVER EASTERN MONTANA AND WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING SOUTHEAST TODAY.
DRIER AIR BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT ALLOWING THE LOW DECK TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE.
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 1028 AM EDT TUE MAR 17 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL BRING CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY SOME LIGHT SHOWERS TODAY.
RIDGING ALOFT STRENGTHENS TODAY WITH RETURN SOUTHEAST WINDS. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.
430 AM PDT TUE MAR 17 2015 A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL BRING A RETURN OF ONSHORE FLOW TODAY WITH COOLING SPREADING INLAND ALONG WITH GUSTY WEST WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS.
732 AM EDT TUE MAR 17 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SNOW OR RAIN SHOWERS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY.
702 AM EDT TUE MAR 17 2015 COLD FRONT NOW NEARING FAR NORTHERN KENTUCKY WITH WINDS STARTING TO TURN NORTHERLY. MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST THIS MORNING CONTINUES TO BE A COLD FRONT DIVING SOUTHWARD INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT IS HELPING TO CREATE A GOOD RIDGE/VALLEY SPLIT ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH COOL 40 DEGREE READINGS IN THE VALLEYS WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR 60 IN THE BLUEGRASS AND SOME OF THE RIDGES. THIS WILL PUT HIGHS INTO THE LOWER 60S FOR MOST AREAS TODAY. ALLOWING VALLEY LOCATIONS TO FALL WELL INTO THE 20S WITH READINGS IN THE LOWER 30S ON THE RIDGES.
951 AM EDT TUE MAR 17 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY TO HOLD ON OVER SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY. AS A WEAK COLD FRONT OVER NORTH FLORIDA MOVES SLOWLY SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA. /ISSUED 750 AM EDT TUE MAR 17 2015/ HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA LATER TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL EDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY ALLOWING A MORE WESTERLY SURFACE FLOW TO SET UP ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. UPPER RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE PENINSULA ON WEDNESDAY KEEPING DRY AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA.
1047 AM EDT TUE MAR 17 2015 COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED SOUTH OUT OF THE AREA. CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON BEFORE DRIER AIR AND SURFACE RIDGING BRING PARTIAL CLEARING.
HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL HOLD OVER WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA TODAY WITH DEEP LAYER DRY AIR OVER THE REGION WHICH WILL LEAD TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH AND BE NEAR KSPS-KADH BY 15Z. THE COLD FRONT STARTED TO PUSH INTO FAR NWRN OK THIS MORNING AROUND 2-230AM CDT. AS THE TROUGH LIFTS INTO THE UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY/TRANS PECOS REGION THIS EVENING. PRIMARILY ACROSS NRN OK AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT NUDGES SOUTH ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS AS OUR NEXT H500 TROUGH MOVES INTO THE SW U.
710 AM CDT TUE MAR 17 2015 ANY STRATUS DECK ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT WILL PROBABLY BE NARROW. A DRY SFC COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN BLASTING THROUGH THE REGION AROUND SUNRISE. HIGHS WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AGAIN WED AS A WEAKENING DEEP SOUTH LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PROVIDES SOME LIFT OF MOISTURE ALOFT. THERE WILL BE QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR HERE IN THE LOW LEVELS.
941 AM EDT TUE MAR 17 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS THE AREA FOR MID WEEK.
1134 AM CDT Tue Mar 17 2015 As of 3 AM, a strong cold front was in the process of moving south across central Missouri. Temperatures ahead of the front have remained in the 50s and even the lower 60s for much of the night.
Radar indicates most of the light showers/ sprinkles have shifted Ewd into NV with the weak upper level trof. Precip diminishing in our CWA and our prospects for additional precip with the next short wave trof along the coast looks minimal as this feature will be working with lower PW air and moving rapidly across the Nrn portion of our CWA this morning. Cloud cover is eroding behind the TPW plume in Norcal and our forecasts of clear to partly cloudy skies and warmer temps today looks on track.
753 AM EDT TUE MAR 17 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL BRING CLOUDS AND SPRINKLES THIS MORNING. COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHERN PA INTO SOUTHEAST OH.
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS NORTHERN UTAH LATE TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FOR THE LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEK. RECORD AT SLC IS 74 AND THAT IS OUR CURRENT FORECAST BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF WE REACH A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER THAN THAT.
1008 AM EDT TUE MAR 17 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
729 AM EDT TUE MAR 17 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS THE AREA FOR MID WEEK.
702 AM CDT TUE MAR 17 2015 SURFACE MAP THIS MORNING HAS STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH THE PRESSURE CENTER NEARING SW MN/NW IA BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE HIGH WILL DRIFT OVERHEAD TONIGHT WITH WINDS DECOUPLING AND TEMPERATURE DROPPING INTO THE TEENS ACROSS CENTRAL WI. WILL ALSO SEE AN INCREASE IN HIGH/MID CLOUD AFTER MIDNIGHT IN RESPONSE TO WEAK LIFT OUT AHEAD OF A MID-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE DAKOTAS. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A WEAK MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED FRONTOGENESIS.
A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROF WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO NORTH ALABAMA THIS EVENING. GIVEN THE CONFLUENT UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. RAIN AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A SHORT WAVE TROF TRACKS EASTWARD.
MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL SHIFT SWD TODAY WHILE MID LEVEL TROUGH WORKS OFF THE NERN U. THIS WILL DRIVE A DRY COLD FRONT ACROSS THE SE STATES. MODERATE RISK POSSIBLE FOR WED AS FLOW TURNS ONSHORE BEHIND A COLD FRONT.
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT HAS BEEN SITTING NEAR THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA PENINSULA WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO CHIHUAHUA TODAY AND OVER WEST TEXAS TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE 'KICKED' BY THE THE NEXT SPLITTING PACIFIC TROUGH. BUT ALSO AS COOLER AIR ALOFT MOVES OVER THE AREA. CIRCULATION AROUND THE LOW WILL KEEP PRECIPITABLE WATER LEVELS NEAR 0.
659 AM CDT Tue Mar 17 2015 As of 3 AM, a strong cold front was in the process of moving south across central Missouri. Temperatures ahead of the front have remained in the 50s and even the lower 60s for much of the night.
1113 AM EDT TUE MAR 17 2015 CLOUDS ARE SPREADING SOUTH OVER THE REGION IN ASSOCIATION WITH A COLD FRONT. COLD FRONT NOW NEARING FAR NORTHERN KENTUCKY WITH WINDS STARTING TO TURN NORTHERLY. MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST THIS MORNING CONTINUES TO BE A COLD FRONT DIVING SOUTHWARD INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT IS HELPING TO CREATE A GOOD RIDGE/VALLEY SPLIT ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH COOL 40 DEGREE READINGS IN THE VALLEYS WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR 60 IN THE BLUEGRASS AND SOME OF THE RIDGES. THIS WILL PUT HIGHS INTO THE LOWER 60S FOR MOST AREAS TODAY. ALLOWING VALLEY LOCATIONS TO FALL WELL INTO THE 20S WITH READINGS IN THE LOWER 30S ON THE RIDGES.
SURFACE WINDS ARE WEST TO NORTHWEST THIS MORNING AND THIS WAS OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT LOCATED NEAR THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL. 850 TEMPS ARE SLIGHTLY COOLER TODAY BUT LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES ARE CLOSE TO YESTERDAYS READINGS IF NOT A TAD HIGHER. A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROF WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO NORTH ALABAMA THIS EVENING. GIVEN THE CONFLUENT UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. RAIN AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A SHORT WAVE TROF TRACKS EASTWARD.
708 AM EDT TUE MAR 17 2015 UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS 500 MB TROUGH OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH THIS TROUGH DIGGING INTO NEW ENGLAND. THEY ARE VERY DRY AND WELL MIXED UP TO ABOUT 700 MB OR SO WITH INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS IN THE LOW LEVELS. THIS WOULD BE VERY HARD TO GET ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WITH THE DRY AIR ESPECIALLY IN THE LOW LEVELS AND CUT POPS BACK FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA. WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION CHANCES APPEAR ON THE LOW SIDE.
AN AXIS OF DEEP LAYER HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN JUST WEST OF THE AREA TODAY WITH DRY WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUING. INLAND AREAS WILL PEAK IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH COASTAL AREAS ABOUT 10 DEGREES COOLER.
839 AM PDT TUE MAR 17 2015 A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL BRING A RETURN OF ONSHORE FLOW TODAY WITH COOLER MARINE AIR SPREADING INLAND ON WESTERLY WINDS.
WHERE THERE WERE CLOUDS LAST NIGHT THE LOW TEMPERATURES FELL TO THE MID 70S. WHILE THE LOWER KEYS. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE TO THE EXISTING FORECAST WITH DEEP LAYER HIGH PRESSURE PARKED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. TONIGHT WILL LIKELY BE A REPEAT FROM LAST NIGHT INCLUDING OVERNIGHT LOWS DIPPING TO NEAR 70 ALONG THE LOWER KEYS UNDER CLEAR SKIES.
616 AM CDT TUE MAR 17 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER ERN MT AND WRN ND WILL MOVE INTO IA THIS EVENING. A MUCH COOLER DAY TODAY WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION. THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE 25 TO 35 DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. STRONGER SHORT WAVE OF SIMILAR TRACK WILL CROSS WRN RIDGE INTO THE MO VALLEY TOWARD MON. 17/12Z HIGH PRESSURE OVER WRN ND WILL MOVE INTO IA TONIGHT.
TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WATER VAPOR SHOWS UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING THROUGH THE PAC NW/NRN ROCKIES WITH STRONG JET STREAK OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. COULD SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT RAIN/SNOW PUSH INTO OUR NRN ZONES TONIGHT AS UPPER TROF CURRENTLY JUST OFFSHORE THE PAC NW QUICKLY PUSHES EWD INTO THE NRN ROCKIES AND BAROCLINIC ZONE NUDGES EWD. AS UPPER TROF SHIFTS OUT OF THE NRN ROCKIES INTO THE NRN PLAINS. BREEZY NW WINDS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS INVERTED SFC TROF PUSHES THROUGH. TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT 10Z DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY.
648 AM CDT TUE MAR 17 2015 A ROBUST COLD FRONT IS PUSHING INTO THE REGION HAVING JUST PASSED KCDS OVER THE PAST HOUR. COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY PUSHING THROUGH THE TEXAS PANHANDLE EARLY THIS MORNING AND SHOULD BE ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES BY 12Z THEN CLEARING THE SOUTH BY 15Z. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE SHARPLY COOLER AS COMPARED TO WHAT WE SAW YESTERDAY. LOWS WILL BE A BIT COOLER AS WELL. DECAYING UPPER TROUGH WILL BE PUSHING ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS WEDNESDAY MORNING KEEPING ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY IN PLACE INTO PERHAPS EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE SUBSIDENCE TAKES HOLD LOCALLY THEREAFTER.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE DAKOTAS THIS MORNING WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY AND TONIGHT. GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL DIMINISH DURING THE DAY AND BECOME MORE EASTERLY BY LATE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS THE HIGH SLIDES TO THE SOUTHEAST. UPPER RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES FLATTENS TONIGHT AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY IN THE NORTHERN STREAM MOVES OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
1250 PM EDT TUE MAR 17 2015 COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO AND NW PA THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
1012 AM EDT TUE MAR 17 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SNOW OR RAIN SHOWERS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY.
750 AM EDT TUE MAR 17 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA LATER TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL EDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY ALLOWING A MORE WESTERLY SURFACE FLOW TO SET UP ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. UPPER RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE PENINSULA ON WEDNESDAY KEEPING DRY AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA.
LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS FROM GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTH OF CENTRAL FLORIDA THROUGH THE DAY AHEAD OF THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
630 AM CDT Tue Mar 17 2015 07z/2am surface map shows cold front sinking southward toward the I-70 corridor. High temperatures will be about 25 degrees cooler than yesterday, generally topping out in the lower to middle 50s. High pressure will build into the region tonight, providing clear skies and diminishing winds.
705 AM EDT TUE MAR 17 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SNOW OR RAIN SHOWERS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY.
EXPECT SHOWERS TO INCREASE IN IDAHO ZONES TODAY AND DECREASE IN OREGON AS A SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVES EWD. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE IN NRN ZONES TONIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH GOES THROUGH. COOLER OVERNIGHT AND RELATIVELY COOL WED EVEN WITH GREATER SUNSHINE DUE TO NWLY FLOW ALOFT.
A weak cold front will push into West Central Texas today.
652 AM CDT TUE MAR 17 2015 GENERALLY QUIET SENSIBLE WEATHER THROUGH MID-WEEK AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS SOUTHEAST INTO THE MIDWEST. AROUND OR JUST SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN TODAY. AT MID-LEVELS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WAS PRESENT OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WHILE A BROAD RIDGE EXISTED OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 20S DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER IN PLACE AND NEAR-NEUTRAL TO SLIGHTLY WARM AIR ADVECTION OVERNIGHT. HIGHS WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN TODAY DUE TO WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION. HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 40S. THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED TIME PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY THE DEVELOPMENT OF A MAJOR UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE GREAT LAKES. A FEW OPPORTUNITIES FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL EXIST WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE REGION.
OTHERWISE A CDFNT EXTENDED ACROSS CENTRAL MO WHILE A CLOSED UPPER LOW WAS OVER MEXICO. OUR NEXT WX MAKER WILL BE THE UPPER LOW.
THE TROUGH FORCING THE SHOWERS TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WILL SHIFT EAST AND PUSH THE DEEP MOISTURE OUT.
Warmer Conditions Along with an Active Weather Pattern This Week. A warmer air mass will start to spread into the area today as highs top out in the upper 60s to the middle 70s. Gusty southerly winds will usher these warmer temperatures into the area and will gust to around 30 mph at times mainly west of Highway 65 across southeastern Kansas and western Missouri. Late this evening into the overnight hours a weak upper level disturbance will track through the region and thunderstorms will be possible as instability increases with the warmer air mass and an increase in low level moisture. This disturbance will likely track closer to the warm front which will be north of the area but may clip portions of central Missouri. Lows will only cool into the 60s tonight as a warmer air mass continues to spread north.
A MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE AREA BUILDS IN OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.
326 AM EDT MON APR 6 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
ATTENTION WILL THEN TURN TO A WARM FRONT EXPECTED TO ENTER THE STATE FROM THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THIS FRONT WILL REMAIN THE FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH MIDWEEK BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. WITH SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. SNOW AMOUNTS AT WORST LOOK TO BE 1 TO 3 INCHES THROUGH TONIGHT FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH A FEW HIGHER AMOUNTS ABOVE 2000 FEET. THE LIGHT OVERRUNNING RAIN AND SNOW WILL LINGER INTO TONIGHT BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH AND GRADUALLY NUDGES THE SURFACE FRONT A BIT FURTHER SOUTH.
THIS WILL KEEP A NORTH TO SOUTH TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS REGION WITH AREAS ACROSS I-80 CORRIDOR LOOKING TO BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES COLDER THAN AREAS ACROSS NORTHERN WV OUTSIDE OF THE RIDGES.
654 AM EDT MON APR 6 2015 AN EAST-WEST ORIENTED FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTH INTO THE AREA DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK.
CURRENT UPPER LEVEL PATTERN SYNOPSIS SHOWS A RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. A WEAK TROUGH PASSING OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND TROUGH COMING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH. A SHORT WAVE UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT FOR DECREASING SHOWERS. THE MAIN UPPER LOW RESIDING OFF THE WEST COAST WILL MOVE INLAND ON TUESDAY.
AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PUSHES INTO THE WEST COAST THE MAIN PRECIPITATION BAND WILL SLOWLY TREK ACROSS CA TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD PUSH THROUGH BETWEEN 11AM AND 4PM FOR THE SIERRA AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. THE ORIENTATION OF THE SYSTEM AND THE LOCATION OF THE JET AREN'T THE BEST FOR SPILLOVER INTO WESTERN NEVADA, BUT THERE SHOULD BE SOME RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON.
A COLD FRONT HAS STALLED ALONG THE COAST THIS PAST EVENING WITH TEMPS IN THE 60S AND A FEW 50S NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY AND 70S TO THE SOUTH. A MID TO UPPER LVL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AND LINGER OVER THE AREA INTO THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
359 AM EDT MON APR 6 2015 MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE GULF EARLY THIS WEEK AND THEN AMPLIFY ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD IN THE MID WEEK PERIOD DUE TO AN UPPER TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC EAST OF THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL STRENGTHEN TODAY AS IT SHIFTS EASTWARD. A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH WILL PUSH WESTWARD THIS MORNING.
WILL SHOW A SLOW BUT GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO VSBYS AND CEILINGS WITH SOME PARTIAL SCATTERING OUT OF THE LOW CLOUD COVER BY AFTN.
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING IT MAY VERY WELL BE MOSTLY SNOW IN OUR WESTERN AND NORTHERN ZONES WITH 850MB TEMPS NEAR FREEZING AND INITIALLY LOW DEWPOINTS. WE WILL SEE A SHORT WAVE RIDGE BUILD OVER US EARLY TUESDAY. BUT A BROAD UPPER LOW DROPPING INTO THE GREAT BASIN WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT OUR SOUTHERN BORDERS BY TUESDAY NIGHT SPINNING A SHORT WAVE OUR DIRECTION WITH INCREASING DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AS WELL.
EASTERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST. FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, SOME OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ARE HINTING FOR CONVECTIVE SHOWERS TO DEVELOP IN THE INTERIOR WEST DRIVEN BY SEA BREEZE COLLISIONS. UPPER RIDGING WILL TAKE HOLD OF THE WEATHER THROUGH MUCH OF THE COMING WEEK. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL THEN SHIFT EASTWARD ALONG THE EASTERN SEA BOARD AND WESTERN ATLANTIC BY THE END OF THE WEEK AS AN UPPER LOW PUSHES ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INCREASE EARLY THIS COMING WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA.
630 AM EDT MON APR 6 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
Much warmer temperatures, somewhat humid conditions and increased south winds are expected today, ahead of a dryline which should mix east to our far northwestern counties by late afternoon.
OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC ALL SUGGEST A STRENGTHENING UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL PROMOTE INCREASINGLY SOUTHWEST UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW OVER OUR AREA THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
400 AM PDT MON APR 6 2015 A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHWARD JUST OFF THE WEST COAST. THERE WILL ALSO BE CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION WITH THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR PRECIPITATION TUESDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
239 AM EDT MON APR 6 2015 AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL BEGIN TODAY NIGHT AS AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE INTERACT WITH THE A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
THE WEAK WAVE CAUSING THESE SPRINKLES WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY LATE MORNING AND SHORT WAVE RIDGING WILL DEVELOP IN ITS WAKE. THIS RIDGING WILL KEEP CONDITIONS MOSTLY DRY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. WEAK INSTABILITY WILL LIMIT ANY SEVERE POTENTIAL DESPITE ~40 KNOTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR ALTHOUGH A SOME SMALL HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN THE STRONGER CELLS WITH FREEZING LEVELS AROUND 10KFT. LONGWAVE PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA WILL UNDERGO A CHANGE FROM RIDGING ALONG THE WEST COAST INTO ALASKA TO MORE ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE PACIFIC AND BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN NORTH AMERICA OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS.