Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
At least isolated storms seem plausible to survive from central Montana early this evening into western and central North Dakota with the low level jet. Superblend dewpoints begin to rise into the 50s to around 60 across central North Dakota Tuesday afternoon along a warm frontal boundary. An EML moves over southwest North Dakota and this should help temperatures rise into the low to mid 90s and at the same time provide a CAP to convection until late afternoon. Will hold off on the mention of severe weather until Tuesday evening when the cold front breaks the CAP. NAM/GFS models do bring in a narrow band of significant CAPE between 2 and three thousand along the cold front.
A surface and upper level trough will move through the area this afternoon and this evening, perhaps bringing a spotty shower or thunderstorm to portions of the area.
The upper ridge flattens out to near zonal Tuesday as a closed low in Alberta Canada and upper trough in the Pacific Northwest moves east. Good moisture return with dewpoints rising into the lower 60s central and east.
232 PM CDT Mon Jun 26 2017 There is an upper ridge over the southwest part of the country with an upper trough over the Great Lakes area. This will allow for a plentiful supply of low level moisture across the area with a chance of storms mainly across the higher terrain.
The higher coverage will once again be in the Coastal Plains. Lows tomorrow night will once again be in the upper 60s to lower 70s with the lower values in the Hill Country.
152 PM PDT Mon Jun 26 2017 The weather will not be as hot for the coming week as high pressure aloft relaxes and the marine layer rebuilds.
231 PM EDT Mon Jun 26 2017 The cool air will continue through tomorrow as an upper low moves slowly through the Great Lakes.
426 PM EDT Mon Jun 26 2017 A weak cold front will cross the area tonight into Tuesday morning.
The afternoon will be breezy in the wake of the exiting system, with cooler air and temperatures 10 or so degrees cooler than Monday, with highs near seasonal averages.
357 PM EDT Mon Jun 26 2017 Weak high pressure builds farther offshore tonight as a cold front approaches from the Great Lakes. High pressure will then briefly follow for the middle of the week. Anomalously strong upper trough across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley states pivots eastward the next couple of days with gradual height falls and increasing daytime instability. Airmass gradually destabilizes on Tuesday with height falls and approaching cold front over the Great Lakes. Cold front works across the area in Tuesday evening with high pressure to follow.
340 PM CDT Mon Jun 26 2017 Water vapor imagery continues to show a broad trough of low pressure over the eastern half of the US this afternoon, with a series of disturbances moving through this flow. The overall flow aloft will not change much over the next 24 hours, as this trough will remain over the region. Day time temperatures will be similar to or slightly warmer as well.
a trough axis will be located just offshore this afternoon, and scattered thunderstorms over the western siskiyous northeastward into the Cascades and East Side are expected this afternoon.
350 PM CDT Mon Jun 26 2017 As of 20Z, the region is situated under northwest flow aloft with a high pressure at the surface. This high pressure will drift southeast of the region tonight allowing for southerly winds to develop. This CWA will continue seeing windy conditions on Tuesday as a low pressure system develops west of the region. Mid-level waa will have warmed temps up enough to cap off daytime convection, but as a cold front begins to push into the region from the west early Tuesday evening, expecting at least isolated to scattered coverage of thunderstorms (supercells most likely) to develop with large hail and damaging winds possible.
259 PM CDT Mon Jun 26 2017 An upper level trough is currently spreading south across the region this afternoon.
Short wave trof will be moving across our Nrn Mtn zones this afternoon/early this evening with instability forecast over the Trinity Alps/Siskiyous, just N of our CWA where isolated-scattered convection is expected. Consensus from the higher resolution model REF and QPF progs keep the convection outside of our CWA. Less instability forecast on Tue even though weak troffing persists over the region. Break down of the ridge over the W Coast allows for a cooler air mass over our CWA and temps this afternoon were running some 5-10 degrees cooler than yesterday over the Nrn and MTN zones and less over the rest of the CWA. Near normal temps expected next couple of days with a warm up to 2 to 7 degrees above normal for the mid and latter half of the week as the West Coast ridge rebuilds.
659 PM EDT Mon Jun 26 2017 A long wave trough over the Great Lakes and eastern Canada will deepen across the region.
Daytime temperatures again should generally range in the lower 90s across much of the region, with the exception along the coast where temps in the mid to upper 80s will be possible due to the expected increase in rain and cloud coverage.
237 PM EDT Mon Jun 26 2017 A long wave trough over the Great Lakes and eastern Canada will deepen across the region.
VFR will persist through the TAF cycle though a weak cold front with a northerly to northeasterly wind shift will move through the terminals between 14-17Z Monday. /issued 334 PM CDT Sun Oct 22 2017/ Dry northwest flow will be the theme for the majority of this work week in response to persistent longwave ridging slowly amplifying along the Pacific coast.
639 PM CDT Sun Oct 22 2017 An upper level wave and surface cold front will be moving across the CWA overnight. Temperatures will be cooler on Monday as well, with highs back down into the 50s for most areas. Deep northwest to northerly flow dominates the period as upper level high pressure remains over the western U. with large low pressure troughing over the eastern U.
High pressure will continue to filter in wake of a cold front allowing for clear skies and N-NE winds. Cold front has pushed through the CWA with clearing skies and cooler temps in its wake.
However, showers are finally beginning to to break out along the MS River as an upper low begins to wind up over southwest MO. In fact, the easter part of the forecast area will likely see the highest rain totals, possibly upwards of 2 inches over the southern Pennyrile of western KY, where better upper level diffluence/upward motion will take place. Skies should temporarily clear out from west to east during the day Monday as the upper low opens up and lifts northeast around the base of a larger trof to its northwest.
Another weak cold front will move, from north to south, into West Central Texas Monday afternoon; thus, expect surface winds from the west or northwest, at the Abilene and San Angelo terminals. Expect abundant sunshine and warmer temperatures on Monday. with highs generally in the lower 80s. Another cold front will move across the Big Country by the late afternoon reinforcing the very dry airmass in place.
Latest Rap and Satellite imagery showed the closed upper low tracking across the Lower Mississippi Valley. East of GLH, -RA and variable cigs between IFR and MVFR will continue at the TAF sites along and ahead of a cold front and upper level low. As the cold front moves through the area, southerly winds will switch to northwest followed by a gradual rise in ceilings.
637 PM CDT Sun Oct 22 2017 Early this afternoon, surface analysis depicted a cold front over far eastern Wisconsin southwestward into the Mid-Mississippi Valley. By early this evening, generally clear skies are expected as high pressure briefly noses into the area. Later tonight, mid/high clouds will begin to increase from the northwest ahead of an upper trough and associated cold front approaching from the northwest. Additional isolated to scattered diurnally driven showers may swing southeastward beneath the cold upper trough by later in the afternoon. The upper level flow will continue to transition to northwest flow as the mean long wave ridge builds over the western conus. The short wave trough that will drop across the Upper Midwest Monday will help form a cut off low over the Great Lakes Monday night.
At 00z this evening, a cold front was located near the Mississippi River, and moving east. Have adjusted grids to fit more closely with current trends, which amounted to mainly adjusting dew points up a bit in the rainy areas and going with a slightly slower movement of the cold front overnight. A line of moderate to heavy showers has developed right along the surface cold front that has finally edged into Middle Tennessee.
744 PM MDT Sun Oct 22 2017 Main update this evening was to cancel the High Wind Warning for areas west and south of Liberty, Chouteau, and Judith Basin Counties. Winds have decreased dramatically early this evening with the loss of daytime heating and the exit of the cold front from the area.
This, in combination with clear skies, will result in an exceptional radiational cooling set up for much of the CWA, especially in the Hill Country where the literal center of the high pressure is progged to be positioned by 12Z tomorrow morning. These situations tend to result in guidance performing quite poorly, and with the last cold front passage, lows were too warm by 5-8 degrees in some instances.
642 PM CDT Sun Oct 22 2017 Upper low migrating slowly east across northern AR this evening.
The ridge of high pressure responsible for our recent warm and increasingly humid airmass will finally begin to weaken and move out into the Atlantic tonight. A deepening upper-level trough will be approaching the eastern states tonight and Monday, supporting our first significant cold front of the season. It will be another warm and humid day, however, with temperatures in the 80s and dew points in the lower to middle 70s.
A weak cold front will move through the area tonight, curbing the warming trend for tomorrow before high pressure rebuilds through the middle of the week.
635 PM CDT Sun Oct 22 2017 Satellite imagery shows dry air filtering in behind the cold front that passed through the area earlier today. VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the evening with the high clouds over KLFT/KARA clearing. Thus, cooler and drier air will filter across the region this evening, ending the precipitation.
Near the surface, a lee side trough of low pressure is edging slowly eastward across eastern Colorado. A shift to north winds will develop overnight as the next weak cold front moves through the High Plains, driven by a sharp upper trough moving through the Missouri Valley. Even the colder NAMmos guidance indicates above freezing temperatures in the Ark valley west of DDC to the CO line while most model output only drops lows into the mid 40s. Given the dry conditions, the raw models might be slightly too cool for highs on Monday afternoon, which the MOS consensus is warmer than by a few degrees especially west.
Expect stronger winds at lower elevations of the high wind warning, to slowly decrease overnight and especially as winds decouple in the low levels. Craig to Casper 850/700 mb height gradients remains sufficient tonight to warrant keeping the high wind warning for our wind prone locations such as Arlington, Vedauwoo and the I-80 summit. Cooler in the wake of the cold front that passes early in the day. Colder night in the wake of the cold front.
A cold front extends from extreme western Kentucky south through west Tennessee and into southern Mississippi. Thus the upper level trough is transitioning to a closed low as models predicted over the Ozarks.
The onshore flow will keep min temps elevated again in the, mid- upper 70s with interior sections in the lower-mid 70s. High pressure ridge will slide east as a frontal trough pushes across the eastern Gulf of Mexico.
1000 PM MDT Sun Oct 22 2017 The High Wind Warning were allowed to expire outside of the wind prone areas in southeast Wyoming since gusts have lowered quite a bit over the past 2 or 3 hours. A surface cold front, which is still in Montana and northern South Dakota at this hour, is expected to move southward tonight. Expect stronger winds at lower elevations of the high wind warning, to slowly decrease overnight and especially as winds decouple in the low levels. Craig to Casper 850/700 mb height gradients remains sufficient tonight to warrant keeping the high wind warning for our wind prone locations such as Arlington, Vedauwoo and the I-80 summit. Cooler in the wake of the cold front that passes early in the day. Colder night in the wake of the cold front.
646 PM CDT Sun Oct 22 2017 Tonight-Monday: Cold front will move through central KS before sunrise and across the entire forecast area by midday.
Coulston Main update this evening was to cancel the High Wind Warning for areas west and south of Liberty, Chouteau, and Judith Basin Counties. Winds have decreased dramatically early this evening with the loss of daytime heating and the exit of the cold front from the area.
739 PM CDT Sun Oct 22 2017 At 00z this evening, a cold front was located near the Mississippi River, and moving east. Have adjusted grids to fit more closely with current trends, which amounted to mainly adjusting dew points up a bit in the rainy areas and going with a slightly slower movement of the cold front overnight. There is some LLWS ahead of the front, owing in part to the close proximity of the upper low, but it doesn't quite meet the criteria for inclusion in the TAF's.
/issued 409 PM EDT Sun Oct 22 2017/ Latest WPC surface analysis shows a strong 1030 mb cell of high pressure over the mid Atlantic waters. The MFL morning sounding showed, once again, sufficient moisture in the lower levels and upper, but lacking in the mid levels. Early to mid this week: On Monday, flow will continue to veer slightly to the southeast, out ahead of an approaching cold front.
833 PM CDT Sun Oct 22 2017 Skies continue to clear and isold shwrs continue to weaken, as high pressure builds into the region in the wake of the fropa. Wrap around clouds/ceilings around 4-5 kft will continue to erode as high pressure builds into the area providing drier air. Cooler air lagging well westward of wind shift with fropa movg across area. A reinforcing cold front Monday night will whip up the nw winds on Tue, with a LWA likely required. An upper low movg across the upper midwest will drop a trough in our direction and will give us a shot of rain early next wknd.
As we approach from 18Z-19Z, winds will shift to northeasterly and behind the passing cold front, winds will be sustained around 20 kts with gusts up to 30 kts possible.
/issued 635 PM CDT Sun Oct 22 2017/ Satellite imagery shows dry air filtering in behind the cold front that passed through the area earlier today. VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the evening with the high clouds over KLFT/KARA clearing. Thus, cooler and drier air will filter across the region this evening, ending the precipitation.
704 PM CDT Sun Oct 22 2017 Upper level trough over southern Canada will move south tonight and dig into the Central Plains. Cooler air is expected to move into the area late tonight and Mon. Winds will be shifting to the northwest behind the trough axis tonight, and the pressure gradient will be rather tight. The trough moving through tonight will keep us mixed and there will be plenty of cloud cover for insolation, so kept lows in the upper 30s and 40s. The cold air advection will knock back highs on Monday into the 50s, and the cooling trend will continue with skies clearing and temps back to seasonal values near the freezing mark Monday night.
Tonight, a cold front will advance southeast across west central Nebraska.
958 PM EDT Sun Oct 22 2017 The dry and warm weather will continue into Monday, under a large area of high pressure. A cold front will approach the area Monday night bringing rain, gusty winds, and cooler conditions for much of the rest of the week. ridge finally breaks down, a complex system over the midwest will push a strong cold front toward the area. The system represents the opening event in an developing pattern change that will eventually result in a large trough over the eastern part of the country. It will be a messy transition as the ridge is slow to give up, and multiple waves rotate around the trough as it settles in.
Sharp long-wave upper level trough axis exiting the Plains this evening is progged to make steady eastward progress to the Lower MS River Delta late tonight then pivots over the heart of the forecast area by daybreak Monday. Ahead of the eastward moving trough axis this evening, the local area remains on the favored side for enhanced deep layer ascent within an anomalously high moist environment (PWAT's) ~ 2.
Also, the strong boundary jet and favorable thermal profile for damaging mountain wave high winds over the higher terrain and adjacent foothills. Chattanooga Airport, TN 63 70 48 63 / 90 100 20 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 59 69 48 61 / 60 90 40 20 Oak Ridge, TN 61 69 47 61 / 70 100 40 20 Tri Cities Airport, TN 57 71 46 62 / 30 90 70 20 TN.
West to southwest winds around 10 mph this evening will veer to the northwest and north gusting to perhaps 20 mph as a cold front moves through. Low temperatures tonight will be not as cold as this morning with readings in the low to mid 30s in far eastern Colorado, upper 30s to mid 40s elsewhere. After a cold front pushes through western Kansas early Monday, another surge of drier air will move into the high plains.
A ridge builds over the western U. Little change in 7H temperatures indicated in model data, so expect marginally warmer afternoon temperatures, largely the result of increased solar insolation.
The broad pattern this coming week will quickly evolve over the next day as the trough that brought Saturdays cold front, currently moving through the Lower Mississippi River Valley, will deepen into a deep slow moving trough over the eastern CONUS; resulting in a strong meridional flow across the Plains States.
ahead of a potent deep layer trough. This activity was associated with a coastal trough that will weaken and lift north tonight which will keep most of the activity offshore but an isolated shower still possible near the coast.
519 PM MDT Sun Oct 22 2017 Current surface analysis shows low pressure over southeast SK, with lee-side trough extending southeast across eastern MT and into the Black Hills area. Canadian cold front extends across central and western MT. Cooler weather will return for the first part of the week as the cold front slides through the forecast area tonight. A tight pressure gradient will develop between the passing front and high pressure over the Pacific NW. Highs will be in the 50s and lower 60s across much of the area, with 40s over the higher Black Hills.
918 PM EDT Sun Oct 22 2017 A cold front will return rain to the area Monday and Monday night. Low pressure will maintain shower chances and cool temperatures through mid week. Clouds should continue to increase tonight ahead of approaching low pressure. The low is progged to track through the OH Valley to the lower Great Lakes Monday, dragging a cold front through the region. A tightening pressure gradient should also result in gusty SE wind especially across the Laurel Highlands and the higher terrain of WV/MD Monday. While low pressure shifts north over Lake Huron Monday night, its cold front should race to the east.
Models are still showing weak cold front to move into the plains and lower foothills from 12Z to 15Z Monday morning. As a result, should see mountain wave increase and could see some gusts upwards of 70 mph on the higher mountain peaks and wind prone areas of the foothills. Those winds may stay occasionally gusty in proximity of mountain wave, and then a cold front arriving late tonight near the northern border. Temperatures will be a good 10 degrees cooler, leaning toward the cooler side of guidance this time of year with upslope component in place.
Gusty winds were noted over Corson county this evening, but the winds appear to have abated as the lower atmosphere moistens up due to diurnal cooling. An upper level wave and surface cold front will be moving across the CWA overnight. Temperatures will be cooler on Monday as well, with highs back down into the 50s for most areas. Deep northwest to northerly flow dominates the period as upper level high pressure remains over the western U. with large low pressure troughing over the eastern U.
Clouds will thin overnight, allowing fog to form in mountain-valley, much of the lower Treasure Valley, and a large portion of Harney County.
The 19z MSAS surface analysis showed the cold front responsible for today's rain extended from eastern Lake Superior to near Chicago. A ridge of high pressure was located from the central Plains into the Upper MS Valley with clear skies. Scattered showers will exit far eastern WI early this evening as the ridge of high pressure moves across WI and advects drier air into the region.
High pressure will build over the southwest through mid-week with above average high temperatures. Another cold front could impact the area late this week. unseasonably strong high pressure along the west coast will bring dry and clear conditions with high temperatures well above average for late October.
Thus the upper level trough is transitioning to a closed low as models predicted over the Ozarks.
601 PM CDT Sun Oct 22 2017 Clouds and light rain/drizzle are hanging on over the eastern cwfa underneath an upper low that is closing off over the region. Looks dry Monday despite the passage of the trough. Western CONUS/east Pacific upper level ridging with a downstream trough will keep the region in nw flow aloft.
1149 PM CDT Sun Oct 22 2017 Early this afternoon, surface analysis depicted a cold front over far eastern Wisconsin southwestward into the Mid-Mississippi Valley. By early this evening, generally clear skies are expected as high pressure briefly noses into the area. Later tonight, mid/high clouds will begin to increase from the northwest ahead of an upper trough and associated cold front approaching from the northwest. Additional isolated to scattered diurnally driven showers may swing southeastward beneath the cold upper trough by later in the afternoon. The upper level flow will continue to transition to northwest flow as the mean long wave ridge builds over the western conus. The short wave trough that will drop across the Upper Midwest Monday will help form a cut off low over the Great Lakes Monday night.
There could still be some isolated storms later this evening and overnight as the main forcing associated with the upstream trof approaches the area. This activity will likely fill in as the short wave trof tracks eastward, so will continue with high rain chances overnight. The cold front or wind shift should reach the AL/MS state line near midnight and the I-65 corridor around 3 am. Models are in better agreement with faster progression of the upper trough on Monday.
707 PM EDT Sun Oct 22 2017 The dry and warm weather will continue into Monday, under a large area of high pressure. A cold front will approach the area Monday night bringing rain, gusty winds, and cooler conditions for much of the rest of the week. ridge finally breaks down, a complex system over the midwest will push a strong cold front toward the area. The system represents the opening event in an developing pattern change that will eventually result in a large trough over the eastern part of the country. It will be a messy transition as the ridge is slow to give up, and multiple waves rotate around the trough as it settles in.
Wrap around clouds/ceilings around 4-5 kft will continue to erode as high pressure builds into the area providing drier air. Cooler air lagging well westward of wind shift with fropa movg across area. A reinforcing cold front Monday night will whip up the nw winds on Tue, with a LWA likely reguired. An upper low movg across the upper midwest will drop a trough in our direction and will give us a shot of rain early next wknd.