Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Currently, a cold front extends from central Indiana into central Missouri with a few light showers over portions of southeast Missouri and northeast Arkansas. Temperatures will remain on the hot side ahead of the front but will be cooler behind it with highs from the mid 80s to mid 90s. The cold front should be south of the region by Monday night with dry weather expected.
High pressure building into the region from the east should make for a drier/more subsident pattern for tomorrow. As a disorganized Gulf low moves onto the lower Texas coast, there is not a whole lot left for us here farther up the coast. Tomorrow, we head into a much less rainy scenario as high pressure takes hold. Tomorrow, as high pressure begins to really assert itself over the area, we should see subsidence do a better job of suppressing cloud cover. With more sun and isolated rain coverage at best, temperatures should be a touch warmer.
1138 AM EDT Sun Aug 14 2022 High pressure along with drier and slightly cooler air will remain over the region for one more day. After a cool start this morning in the lower 60s, even had some COOP locations in the 50s, temperatures are warming up into the 80s under mostly sunny skies. Temperatures should be a bit warmer than yesterday with air mass modification and some downsloping flow with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s. As a result, overnight lows should be about a category warmer than this morning with lows in the mid 60s. A broad upper level trough persists over the Northeast U. This trough pushes a cold front into The Midlands and CSRA during the same time period.
Current analysis is that upsloping may very well keep the clouds around for much of the rest of the afternoon within the higher terrain, but the sun is still able to increasingly peak through well into the Wrn portions of the U. Back to the temp discussion, have lowered highs for today, with the highest highs looking to occur in the E, as alluded to. Broad surface ridging persists across James Bay through mid-week resulting in east-northeast winds across Upper MI. A long fetch across Lake Superior and cloud/precip chances keep western locations slightly cooler than normal.
No changes in the strong upper high are expected either.
(Through tonight ) Dome of high pressure remained in place across the region this afternoon with mostly clear to some scattered mid clouds across Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas. These conditions were aiding in temps climbing into the low 90s to around 100 deg across the CWA. Heat index values were staying in check for most locations with dewpoints in the low/mid 60s. (Tomorrow through Sunday) Ridge of high pressure continues Monday. This puts Northwest Arkansas more on the eastern periphery of the ridge.
A weakening cold front over Marion county will dissipate overnight.
326 PM EDT Sun Aug 14 2022 A series of weak low pressure systems will bring a chance of showers to the area for the next couple of days. Cool and cloudy day with low pressure passing south of the area on Monday. The northern tier will be warmer with sun and drier conditions.
At the surface, low pressure was situated near Champaign IL with a trailing cold front through central MO and KS. But for today, look for a dry and warmer day.
Upper level analysis places broad ridging over the plains, but various short waves continue to rotate through the flow, with one noted over eastern Montana, and another over southwest/south central North Dakota. Ridging to the west amplifies some, but still a few weak disturbances will be moving through the flow. Models are trying to drop a rather aggressive system down the face of the ridge for late in the work week, but expect that to remain mainly east of our area, possibly bringing some precipitation to our eastern areas.
235 PM EDT Sun Aug 14 2022 Aloft, a deep trough will remain in place over the eastern US coast through at least through mid-week. At the surface, a weak frontal boundary will sink and stall in N Florida as the weak high pressure continues to ridge south of the state generating westerly wind flow for the upcoming days. Temperatures are expected to reach generally the lower 90s.
(This afternoon through Monday night) High pressure centered over the Southcentral Plains continues advecting moist air from the Gulf of Mexico into the Permian Basin. If any do form the best rain chances will be in the higher elevations of the Big Bend. The highest rain chances again will be in the southern CWA, especially south of Highway 90 beginning Monday before increasing Monday night.
Another pleasant summer day is on tap for the region with conditions very similar to yesterday, although afternoon temperatures will trend a few degrees warmer.
Quiet weather will come to an end Monday as high pressure moves offshore and an mid level impulse moves into the area Monday.
The upper level ridge axis will then get shifted east as the ridge gets flattened tonight into Monday.
/Issued 633 AM CDT Sun Aug 14 2022/ High pressure and dry atmosphere remain in control. A little bit of a theta-e ridge will begin setting up by Monday over the area as the high settles just south of the area, but soundings suggest the atmosphere will remain capped by warm -3 deg C H5 temps for all but perhaps the far NW where some modest mid level cooling can be seen due to those areas being further removed from the high center.
The longwave flow stagnation continues with an amplified ridge over the Intermountain West and deeper broad troughing over the eastern CONUS.
With that being said, storms that do develop will carry a high flash flood threat and favor the higher elevations. Looking forward, the overall pattern highlights dual centers of the ridge with one remaining over the Great Basin and the other over the Texas panhandle through mid-week.
As the longwave trough digs across the eastern US coast, unsettled weather continues with more widespread showers and scattered thunderstorms.
Further south along the lower Texas coast, convection associated with a loosely organized low pressure area moving onshore in the NW Gulf (formerly Invest 98L) is continuing to gradually spread inland. The main roadblocks inhibiting the northward expansion of this convection will be the increasing subsidence from the building ridge overhead, additional subsidence present along the periphery of the coastal disturbance, and the steep inland gradient of deep tropical moisture. Otherwise, above-normal temperatures will prevail this afternoon and again Monday as the strong mid/upper-level ridge becomes better established over the southern High Plains.
249 PM EDT Sun Aug 14 2022 A series of weak low pressure systems will bring a chance of showers to the area for the next couple of days. Cool and cloudy day with low pressure passing south of the area on Monday. The northern tier will be warmer with sun and drier conditions.
218 PM MDT Sun Aug 14 2022 Current sfc analysis shows a weak warm front oriented north to south over western SD. Upper level ridge has somewhat flattened out over the northern US a weak upper level high still sits to our south over western OK/TX. Monsoon moisture wraps around the high and flows over the region, bringing mostly cloudy skies and some weakening shower activity over western SD. Conditions will dry out as a ridge builds back up to our west and brings in northwesterly flow.
Hot and dry conditions will continue to the be the story for the short term with higher heights centered across the Rockies spreading weak northwesterly flow aloft for the high plains and western Kansas. Weak leeside troughing over eastern Colorado will give way to some downslope warming allowing for temperatures to push into the triple digits once again with south to southwest winds 10-20 mph. With daytime heating and mixing to the surface, the aforementioned leeside trough will deepen a little more so as Sunday allowing to south to southwest wind gusts to push up to 20-30 mph.
---BMickelson PREVIOUS MORNING DISCUSSION: Synoptic Setup: Hot high pressure lies centered over the Four Corners with a ridge riding north out of it through eastern Montana and onto the Plains of Saskatchewan. The backside of ridge contains a large area of southwest flow running from western Montana back down to northern California and off shore where it is picking up moisture and transporting it to the region. At the surface a lee side trough has set up over central Montana and is dividing dry surface air to the west from increased moisture at the surface to the east. Today through Monday: Southwest flow holds for a short period until the ridge migrates back west by Monday.
Weak ridging over the area has brought in slightly drier air and kept rain coverage down for the most part today. As we begin the new work week, rain chances will continue on the lower side, especially compared to the recent norms as ridging tries to hold in place. Lower rain chances does mean temperatures will rise into the lower 90s in most locations with enough moisture still around to make heat index values noticeable.
255 PM EDT Sun Aug 14 2022 Mean layer ridging remains over the Central US, upstream from a nearly stationary and broad long wave trough complex over the Eastern US and the western North Atlantic. High temperatures are in the lower 90s with dewpoints in the lower to mid 70s. The low level kinematics will remain weak, and at times variable.
Current analysis is that upsloping may very well keep the clouds around for much of the rest of the afternoon within the higher terrain, but the sun is still able to increasingly peak through well into the Wrn portions of the U. Back to the temp discussion, have lowered highs for today, with the highest highs looking to occur in the E, as alluded to. Broad troughing up the east coast with ridging upstream across western CONUS will position the forecast area in mostly northwest flow aloft in the coming forecast period. At the surface, a high shifting east through Ontario will extend a ridge south and southwestward over the Upper Great Lakes. Guidance continues to suggest ridging over Lake Superior will dominate the region through at least the middle of the coming week.
Riding across the plains and a 592dam High pressure to our west has helped to suppress most rain chances across the region however a stalled boundary treading along the I-20 corridor will confine any rain and storm chances to the far south today. Mostly clear skies will prevail this evening with lows in the lower 70s.
We'll see one last fairly hot day tomorrow mainly south of I-80 and into north central Kansas south of a strong cold front and then one of our better chances for several strong to severe thunderstorms from Monday afternoon into Monday evening.
243 PM CDT Sun Aug 14 2022 A cold front is on track to move through the FA this evening. Behind the front, Monday will be cooler due to northerly flow at the sfc. Highs will be a bit below average and will range from the low to mid 80s.
It will, however, feel a bit more humid into Monday as the dewpoints rise into the lower to mid 60s.
253 PM MDT Sun Aug 14 2022 A ridge of high pressure will continue to build over the Northern Rockies today, and strengthen through much of the coming week.
1247 PM CDT Sun Aug 14 2022 Water vapor shows large upper ridge axis extending into the Central/Northern Plains, with southern edge of the monsoonal moisture plume across the CWA. At the surface, high pressure is located over the Upper Midwest with surface trof extending from the far western Dakotas southward through the NEB panhandle into eastern CO. A more robust short wave approaches later this afternoon tonight and tonight, with convection initiating in the NEB panhandle in closer proximity to the aforementioned surface trof, then spreading eastward across western/northern portions of the forecast area tonight. If there is enough clearing/heating, then another round of storms will likely develop at least in the eastern half of zones along a weak cold front.
A mid-level ridge axis is passing over the area today with 1000-850mb thicknesses slightly higher than they were yesterday. Expect highs to be a couple degrees warmer with dewpoints mixing into the upper 60s at most locations. More instability would be available if dewpoints remain in the lower 70s while the threat would be lessened if the dewpoints are able to mix into the 60s again, so trends will be watched closely. I leaned more on the warmer side for dewpoints based on how they are evolving today and with the expected moisture advection tomorrow.
1114 AM MDT Sun Aug 14 2022 Temperatures today will be about 5 degrees cooler than yesterday, given lower heights and increased cloud cover. A few showers/storms can't be ruled out, but these would be weak and mainly confined to the high terrain. Wyoming continues to be under the influence of the H5 ridge, which will be rebuilding to the west into Idaho.
(This afternoon through Monday Night) A bit warmer today with temps in the upper 80s to around 90 with southwest winds bringing in some additional heat and moisture to the mid state.
The upper level pattern will largely remain the same through the near term period, with an upper ridge over the central CONUS and an upper trough over the east coast. Temperatures will merely drop into the lower to mid 70s tonight, followed by slightly warmer highs Monday afternoon (lower to mid 90s north of I-10 and upper 80s to lower 90s south).
This pcpn is likely associated with a mid level wave moving through the ridge aloft.
This is progged to help push a lee trough in the High Plains east and perhaps some weak sfc cyclogenesis over the eastern Dakotas by Mon evening. Modified monsoonal moisture easily discernible in water vapor imagery via GOES and polar orbiting microwave products can be seen streaming underneath the crest of upper ridging across the Dakotas.
Otherwise, temperatures expected to be slightly warmer across the area, with above normal values expected.
103 PM EDT Sun Aug 14 2022 High pressure will prevail inland as a weak area of low pressure sits offshore.
Showers and thunderstorms have develop across much of the high terrain this afternoon.
An amplifying ridge of high pressure Mon will kick off what should be a 3-day period of dry and low- impact conditions for SE Idaho, with high temps warming with time.
1205 PM CDT Sun Aug 14 2022 (Today through Monday afternoon) The upper ridge has slid a little south in the last 24hrs with a tropical wave moving into the southeast TX coast riding along the easterlies.
109 PM EDT Sun Aug 14 2022 Scattered showers and cooler than average temperatures return for the first half of the week under upper level low pressure. Upper troughing over the NE CONUS will deepen as a jet streak apparent in latest WV imagery crosses the upstream inflection point and begins to round the base of the trough.
210 PM CDT Sun Aug 14 2022 (Issued 210 PM CDT Sun Aug 14 2022) Tonight through Monday night: Low pressure continues to head southeast away from the area though the cool and moist northeast flow continues keep the cloud cover in place and is still expected to wrap at least some moisture across the area into tonight. With at least a mix of clouds and sun expected Monday we should see temps climb back into the 70s with some cooler readings near Lake Michigan as the onshore flow will continue. High pressure continues to ridge into the area for Monday night.
339 PM EDT Sun Aug 14 2022 Low pressure will track into the eastern Maritimes tonight. High pressure will build into the area through Monday night.
More clouds means a little cooler, with highs below 100 for most areas.
1122 AM EDT Sun Aug 14 2022 A series of weak low pressure systems will track from just southwest of Lake Michigan, to just off the Mid Atlantic Coast by mid week. This will put a cap on the high temperatures this afternoon.
It will be interesting to see if a boundary associated with this low helps focus any heavier precip over the far northeastern corner of our forecast area on Monday as suggested by NAM QPF alone.
WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO High debris clouds covered some of the high desert this morning, while patchy low clouds touched the coast. The low clouds had greater coverage over the water, but little appearing over land.
1242 PM EDT Sun Aug 14 2022 Scattered showers and cooler than average temperatures return for the first half of the week under upper level low pressure. Upper troughing over the NE CONUS will deepen as a jet streak apparent in latest WV imagery crosses the upstream inflection point and begins to round the base of the trough.
Embedded waves riding over a mid level ridge will interact with this boundary to continue to trigger scattered showers and storms tonight. Upper level analysis places broad ridging over the plains, but various short waves continue to rotate through the flow, with one noted over eastern Montana, and another over southwest/south central North Dakota. Ridging to the west amplifies some, but still a few weak disturbances will be moving through the flow. Models are trying to drop a rather aggressive system down the face of the ridge for late in the work week, but expect that to remain mainly east of our area, possibly bringing some precipitation to our eastern areas.
This will be contingent on the clearing happening and temps falling into the upper 50s (past the crossover temps in the lower 60s).
805 PM EDT Sun Aug 14 2022 Low pressure will track into the eastern Maritimes tonight. High pressure will build into the area through Monday night.
1056 PM EDT Sun Aug 14 2022 A deepening upper level trough over the northeast conus will transition to a cut off low in the vicinity of Pennsylvania the first half of this week. The upper low will lift out late this week. Evening radar loop shows scattered showers falling across south central Pa along axis of low level jet and modest instability preceding a deepening upstream trough. Cloud cover and warm advection should result in a milder night than those recently, with overnight lows ranging from the mid 50s over the northern mountains, to the mid 60s across parts of the Lower Susq Valley. Slightly milder conditions are expected elsewhere, but cool temps aloft associated with deepening upper trough will result in highs 5-10F below average Any diurnally-driven showers over northern Pa should dissipate Monday evening.
Aloft, a deep trough will remain in place over the eastern US coast through at least through mid-week. At the surface, a weak frontal boundary will sink and stall in N Florida as the weak high pressure continues to ridge south of the state generating westerly wind flow for the upcoming days. Temperatures are expected to reach generally the lower 90s.
Showers and thunderstorms have developed across much of the high terrain this afternoon.
7â or greater remain and dew points are in the low 50s.
The region will see near seasonal temperatures for the next couple of days also before a building ridge warm things up towards midweek.
Relatively dry air over the region is also being observed with relative humidity values in the low teens to 20s across interior Northern California. Ensemble guidance is in good agreement this building high pressure over the region will lead to hot weather with widespread triple digit highs for much of the week in the Valley.
By late Monday the ridge axis will rebound over the western US.
Models have the upper ridge flatten over the CWA as a weak upper trough pushes across overnight into Monday morning. By late Monday afternoon, the upper ridge is building back to the northwest of Colorado. There is some synoptic scale energy with the trough tonight and early Monday morning, but not much by Monday afternoon. For temperatures, Monday's high look to be 4-6 C cooler than today's highs.
1014 PM EDT Sun Aug 14 2022 Low pressure will track into the eastern Maritimes tonight. High pressure will build into the area through Monday night.
630 PM CDT Sun Aug 14 2022 (This afternoon through Monday Night) A bit warmer today with temps in the upper 80s to around 90 with southwest winds bringing in some additional heat and moisture to the mid state.
A weak frontal boundary/trough that moved into central FL will remain stalled across the area tonight, and may help initiate additional showers and isolated storms mainly over the coastal waters of Brevard County and the Treasure Coast overnight. Otherwise, mostly dry conditions expected, with any higher clouds diminishing and lows falling into the low to mid 70s. Outside of storms, winds will be light with a weak frontal boundary/trough across the waters, wind speeds will be 5-10 knots out of the N/NE generally north of Sebastian Inlet and W/NW to the south.
622 PM CDT Sun Aug 14 2022 (This afternoon through Monday night) High pressure centered over the Southcentral Plains continues advecting moist air from the Gulf of Mexico into the Permian Basin. If any do form the best rain chances will be in the higher elevations of the Big Bend. The highest rain chances again will be in the southern CWA, especially south of Highway 90 beginning Monday before increasing Monday night.
GOES-16 satellite trends this evening shows the Mid-South on the western periphery of an upper level trough axis. This is resulting in northerly mid/upper level flow aloft across the Lower Mississippi Valley. Meanwhile, at the surface a cold front extends from the Ohio Valley back through Southern Missouri and into the Central and Northern Plains. Currently, a cold front extends from central Indiana into central Missouri with a few light showers over portions of southeast Missouri and northeast Arkansas. Temperatures will remain on the hot side ahead of the front but will be cooler behind it with highs from the mid 80s to mid 90s. The cold front should be south of the region by Monday night with dry weather expected.
A dry southwest flow aloft will maintain the mostly clear skies through Monday as high pressure aloft builds over the Great Basin.
514 PM MDT Sun Aug 14 2022 Current sfc analysis shows a weak warm front oriented north to south over western SD. Upper level ridge has somewhat flattened out over the northern US a weak upper level high still sits to our south over western OK/TX. Monsoon moisture wraps around the high and flows over the region, bringing mostly cloudy skies and some weakening shower activity over western SD. Conditions will dry out as a ridge builds back up to our west and brings in northwesterly flow.
The drier airmass will heat up quickly with highs in the lower to middle 90s inland and upper 80s at the Atlantic beaches with a East Coast sea breeze pushing inland to around the US 301 corridor or so, but likely not enough moisture aloft to trigger any afternoon convection. A weakening cold front over Marion county will dissipate overnight.
707 PM EDT Sun Aug 14 2022 Lower VFR cigs in the 5-7kft layer will persist within east to northeast flow north of low pressure now sinking south through the Ohio Valley. The trend on Monday will be for less cloudiness as drier air edges into the area on north to northeast flow from high pressure to the north.
658 PM EDT Sun Aug 14 2022 Low pressure will track into the eastern Maritimes tonight. High pressure will build into the area through Monday night.
This moisture is monsoonal in nature, moving around an anticyclonic circulation out of Arizona, through Utah and Wyoming, then east into the High Plains. On Monday, the low level jet along with a strengthening mid level jet will help rainfall continue in the morning. Cooler temperatures are also in the forecast early this week. A surface cold front will bisect the forecast area by tomorrow. Given the position of the cold front, there will be a strong gradient of highs, with temperatures in the upper 90s in far southwest Nebraska, and around 80 along the South Dakota state line. Precise timing of the cold front will have a large impact on temperatures. With the passage of the cold front on Monday, expect lows on Monday night to fall into the 50s to low 60s.
306 AM EDT Mon Aug 15 2022 Scattered showers will continue through mid week under upper level low pressure. Dry weather should return by the end of the week under high pressure. A trough across the Ern CONUS will continue to gradually deepen today.