Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
522 AM EST Mon Nov 20 2017 High pressure centered over Tennessee reaches well to the southwest into the southern Gulf of Mexico. Along the southern flank of the high, a cold front stretches from southern Florida to the Bay of Campeche. Long duration loops of radar and satellite indicate the cold front is slowing down, signaling its imminent stall. The front will transition tonight and move northward as a developing warm front. At the same time, a short wave trough currently near southwest Texas, will set the equatorward base of a long wave trough deep into the Gulf of Mexico.
Wind backing to the SW as the high pressure moves in from the SW. Clear skies and light wind in the east will allow temps to drop into the 20s while the SW breeze keeps the higher elevs in the SW in the lower 30s. We'll be under the thermal ridge Tuesday and will get into the u40s to l50s.
326 AM MST Mon Nov 20 2017 Early morning satellite imagery and u/a hand analysis shows a moderately strong atmospheric river approaching the central coast of NOAM with a low pressure system just off the left coast of N. Top down saturation will need to occur to get the lower atmosphere primed and the jet will help but the fast movement of this storm will not leave much time to make a big snow storm. So again the high peaks will stand the best chance of seeing accumulating snow. It will be cold enough for snow in the lower elevations but accums look to be 2 inches or less with possibly some sleet mixed in during the pre-dawn hours as the most convective part of the storm passes through.
552 AM EST Mon Nov 20 2017 High pressure across the Ohio Valley this morning will move to the Carolinas this evening. A cold front will move east into the western Great Lakes tonight, and then across the remainder of the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley Tuesday into Tuesday night.
Upper low visible on water vapor imagery this morning tracking across northern Montana and as expected, winds are really going to town out west. Dry, mild and windy for the holiday with brisk northwest flow aloft and decent surface lee troughing.
coast and mid/upper level troughing amplifies over the Gulf of Mexico leading to increasing clouds and possibly a few showers late tonight south of Interstate 4.
1053 AM EST Mon Nov 20 2017 Winds have tipped to the northeast as the cold front has sagged just south of the island chain this morning.
Flow pattern through the mid and upper levels is from the northwest, with more of a northerly pull the upper high you go towards jet level. Cloud cover will continue to filter across southeast CA and Arizona today and Tuesday before strong ridging lifts the storm track well to our north.
This is a very warm airmass with freezing levels rising to over 10,000 feet. 75 inches of rain over the higher terrain.
The resulting continental polar airmass intrusions will keep temperatures cooler and dry conditions in place. After sunrise, temperatures should gradually rebound into the low to mid 50s today underneath a sunny to mostly sunny sky. The high pressure system should move east today causing weak northerly winds (around 5 MPH) to veer to the southeast. Antecedent southeasterly flow will advect modified air towards the TN Valley on Tuesday which combined with the daytime heating will mean daytime highs should reach into the low 60s.
A broad area of high pressure will rule the lower levels. Overall have kept just slight chance over the area given weak lift and weak lower level ridge influence. Southern stream energy is quite strong as it rotates through the lower Mississippi Valley and warrants slight chance to low end chance pops despite the limited moisture.
314 AM MST Mon Nov 20 2017 Water vapor shows large ridge over the western CONUS, with a trof extending from Alta southwestward to just offshore the Pac NW. At the surface, low center is over southern Sask with broad trof over the Northern Plains, and associated cold front over southern Alta. Thickness ridge is expected to peak over the cwfa today, with gusty w/nw boundary layer flow pushing temps into the 60s east of the Black Hills. Cold front is then expected to drop into the cwfa late this afternoon into tonight. Upper ridge quickly rebuilds across the western CONUS and leads to dry and very mild conditions mid to late week.
639 AM EST Mon Nov 20 2017 High pressure is moving in. A mainly-dry cold front will move in Tuesday night, and cool temps off to near seasonal levels for the rest of the week. Wind backing to the SW as the high pressure moves in from the SW. Clear skies and light wind in the east will allow temps to drop into the 20s while the SW breeze keeps the higher elevs in the SW in the lower 30s. We'll be under the thermal ridge Tuesday and will get into the u40s to l50s.
529 AM EST Mon Nov 20 2017 Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb trough in the ern U. this morning and a trough off the Pacific NW coast and another in the Canadian Rockies. This trough in the Canadian Rockies digs quickly southeast into the northern plains tonight and is poised to move into the upper Great Lakes.
On Tuesday we will have a low pressure system approaching from the Great Lakes region which will eventually pass well North of our forecast area.
939 AM EST Mon Nov 20 2017 High pressure across the Ohio Valley this morning will move to the Carolinas this evening. A cold front will move east into the western Great Lakes tonight, and then across the remainder of the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley Tuesday into Tuesday night.
Next cold front will move into northeast Oklahoma Tuesday morning, sweeping south into the ARKLATX region by early evening.
1038 AM EST Mon Nov 20 2017 Temps/dewpts largely on track for near term so no changes made with a mostly clear and dry ridge dominated Monday on tap. A broad area of high pressure will rule the lower levels. Overall have kept just slight chance over the area given weak lift and weak lower level ridge influence. Southern stream energy is quite strong as it rotates through the lower Mississippi Valley and warrants slight chance to low end chance pops despite the limited moisture.
Otherwise, a ridge of high pressure builds over the region through the week. Large area of high pressure over the region will hold in through the week. A cold front moving into the PACNW is bringing clouds and precip into NRNCA.
/issued 320 AM CST Mon Nov 20 2017/ WV imagery this morning shows synoptic scale upper trof departing off of the East Coast, as another disturbance undercutting the upper ridge present across much of the wrn CONUS shifts ewd into the srn Plains. Trof will continue to deepen just to our e, leaving us under dry nw flow aloft.
BMickelson Previous short term discussion: Synoptic Setup: Forecast begins with an exiting meso-ridge over the High Plains of Montana and southern Alberta and the Dakotas. Farther upstream, another pacific ridge- trough couplet sets up, off the coast of British Columbia. Meanwhile, off the coast of California, a surge of warm air is forming into a synoptic ridge. As the cold front moves through the CWA during the afternoon, temperatures will begin to fall and winds will become gusty.
934 AM EST Mon Nov 20 2017 High pressure over the Lower Mississippi valley will move east and off the southeast coast tonight.
On the ground light northeasterly winds this morning will shift out of the south during the early to mid afternoon as high pressure to the northeast continues to work its way off the eastern seaboard. /issued 350 AM CST Mon Nov 20 2017/ Early morning sfc analysis shows high pressure centered over the lower Mississippi Valley, ridging swwd across the forecast area with a light nerly low-level flow in place helping maintain our recent cool conditions with observations showing temps ranging from near freezing nern zones to lower 40s srn zones.
406 AM CST Mon Nov 20 2017 An upper level trough will translate across the area this morning. The downslope component will lead to warmer than normal high temperatures and decreased RH value. On Tuesday, an upper level ridge begins to amplify west of the area.
516 AM CST Mon Nov 20 2017 High pressure was southeast of the CWA early this morning and surface winds have been out of the south this evening and so far overnight. Further west, temperatures remain in the low 40s. The front will not make it into the area tonight, so overnight lows will be more mild in the low to mid 40s with steady southerly winds. It looks pretty cold on Tuesday night as the cold air advects in with the Canadian high pressure system.
Latest model data continues to keep the higher winds below 70 mph so will not issue any wind hilites, especially given approach of upper jet and increased shear profile, and lack of any strong subsidence today. Temperatures will be a little warmer today but will go a few degrees below MOS guidance given quite a bit of cloud cover upstream which will continue to spread over the area. The energy may produce a few showers over the plains as a cold front pushes down as well. The Jet core will push east of the area Tuesday evening with the upper ridge over the western states to push closer. A surface lee trough will develop overnight to keep minimum temperatures moderated in and against the foothills.
922 AM EST Mon Nov 20 2017 High pressure will prevail into Tuesday.
509 AM EST Mon Nov 20 2017 Dry and cool high pressure will build across the area today. Moisture will return beginning Tuesday as weak low pressure develops over the Gulf of Mexico and bring isolated showers to the region Tuesday and Tuesday night. Upper trough will dive into the Gulf of Mexico tonight. Isentropic lift will interact with a stalled front to our south and is expected to provide some increase in lower to mid level cloudiness into portions of our forecast area late tonight from the south, with some indications of a coastal trough developing late tonight.
634 AM EST Mon Nov 20 2017 High pressure will prevail into Tuesday.
630 AM EST Mon Nov 20 2017 High pressure over the Lower Mississippi valley will move east and off the southeast coast tonight.
556 AM EST Mon Nov 20 2017 High pressure today yields to southwest flow tonight and Tuesday. Cold front crosses Tuesday night. High pressure again through Thanksgiving.
Cloud cover will be significant enough to keep high temperatures limited to near normal values in the lower/mid 70s most locations this afternoon. For Tuesday, the low levels continue to dry further as the flow becomes southwest, then west, as a dry cold front approaches the area from the north. The drying low levels and dry northwest flow aloft will result in mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies for Tuesday with temperatures jumping up to well above normal values in the lower to mid 80s area-wide, which will roughly be 6 to 11 degrees above normal.
441 AM MST Mon Nov 20 2017 Water vapor shows large ridge over the western CONUS, with a trof extending from Alta southwestward to just offshore the Pac NW. At the surface, low center is over southern Sask with broad trof over the Northern Plains, and associated cold front over southern Alta. Thickness ridge is expected to peak over the cwfa today, with gusty w/nw boundary layer flow pushing temps into the 60s east of the Black Hills. Cold front is then expected to drop into the cwfa late this afternoon into tonight. Upper ridge quickly rebuilds across the western CONUS and leads to dry and very mild conditions mid to late week.
The warm front that is supposed to move into the region on Tuesday has been trending slower with recent model runs, so Tuesday morning looks to be drier than previous forecasts.
A cold front will bring a wind shift to northwest Oklahoma after 6Z Tuesday. A cold front will also move across the area on Tuesday, with breezy northerly winds developing behind the front.
503 AM CST Mon Nov 20 2017 A longwave upper TROF was over eastern North America early this morning, resulting in NW flow aloft over our region. At the surface, high pressure has moved off into the Mid and Deep South regions, resulting in a southerly flow for our region. At the same time, a tightening pressure gradient will result in strengthening southerly winds to 15-25mph with gusts to 35mph, with the highest wind speeds in northeast MO. TES An upper level trough will move eastward through the Great Lakes region and send a cold front southeastward through our forecast area Tuesday.
Winds will decrease with sunset to 10 knots or less and then a cold front will move through switching the winds around to the northwest late in this forecast. At GUY and DHT, southwest to west winds at speeds around 10 knots or less will prevail through this evening and then a cold front will move through around midnight switching the winds around to the northwest. A cold front is on track to sweep across the Panhandles late tonight into Tuesday morning. While our temperatures will run roughly ten degrees cooler compared to Today's highs, we will still be a few degrees above average for late November.
957 AM EST Mon Nov 20 2017 High pressure today yields to southwest flow tonight and Tuesday. Cold front crosses Tuesday night. High pressure again through Thanksgiving.
Although morning lows were cooler in most areas than expected, the extremely dry airmass and ample sunshine will allow temperatures to climb into the mid 60s to near 70. Surface ridging will move east across the Southeast underneath a broad full CONUS trough. Low level flow will become easterly today as the ridge moves east, resulting in an increase in low-level moisture and the development of low cloudiness.
312 AM PST Mon Nov 20 2017 High pressure aloft along the West Coast will bring unseasonably warm weather this week.
Temperatures will still be cool and range from about 80 at Chattanooga to the lower to mid 70s lower elevations.
High pressure is once again building over the western CONUS and Canada. Dewpoints have rebounded some today, but as the ridge continues to move over the area drier conditions will prevail. With that being the case, elevated fire weather conditions due to the low relative humidities are a concern through Saturday, but the relatively light winds will be a limiting factor.
315 PM CDT Fri Sep 1 2017 The Northland was between high pressure off to the east with a trough of low pressure and frontal boundaries over the Northern Plains into Manitoba this afternoon. Additional development will be possible during the day with steep lapse rates over far northern Minnesota into northwest Wisconsin combined with the upper trough. Clouds will keep temperatures warmer tonight for most areas with lows from the upper forties across Price/southern Iron Counties.
A second area of weak low pressure will move across Lake Erie tomorrow night.
High pressure will largely keep winds light and variable again through the TAF period - if anything, a slight preference for easterly or southeasterly winds would be seen.
144 PM MDT Fri Sep 1 2017 Water vapor shows massive upper ridge building through the western CONUS, with surface analysis placing frontal boundary across the central Dakotas. Upper ridge will bring very warm and dry conditions to the region through the weekend, with main concerns being fire weather (see fire weather discussing below).
Saturday night high pressure will build into the Tennessee Valley. A weak cold front will approach from the northwest, but the high should keep us dry.
None of the high resolution CAMs have this line, so I'm uncertain on just how long it will last. Some light rain remains near the center, rotating around the backside of the low. With the extra cloud cover and rain chances in the north, the northernmost counties will likely remain in the low to mid 70s for high temperatures. The close proximity to Harvey's central low pressure has set up a fairly tight pressure gradient across the area.
313 PM EDT Fri Sep 1 2017 Skies cleared late this morning and the Florida Keys were enjoying a rain free afternoon with temperatures in the lower 90s with dew points near 80. A high pressure over the western Atlantic will continue to extend towards the Florida peninsula tonight into tomorrow. Later tomorrow it will shift to the east and the ridge will lift north.
Weak mid and upper level ridging will begin to breakdown over the weekend as the longwave pattern becomes higher amplitude, with a sharp ridge over the Western States and a deep trough over the Mississippi and Ohio River Valleys.
Current radar shows a few low-intensity showers and thunderstorms along the Coconino Plateau and Mogollon Rim, gradually developing southwest toward the lower elevations. Given the position of the strong high pressure circulation over the western United States, we expect that northward movement of moisture associated with Lidia will be limited.
450 PM EDT Fri Sep 1 2017 A stalled west to east frontal zone across central NC will lift north as a warm front late tonight as Harvey's remnants track slowly northeast into Ohio Valley. A cold front will move slowly west to east through the area on Saturday.
The remnants of Harvey slides northeastward across the Ohio Valley with an upper trough swinging from the central to the eastern Gulf of Mexico. An upper ridge initially reaching across FL from the Atlantic pulls away to the east. The subtropical ridge centered in the open Atlantic. The troughiness approaching from the west and the ridging over and just east of the area will result in 1000-700 MB flow veering from southerly to southwesterly later tonight and for Sat. Temperatures will be a degree or two above normal for the lows while the highs will be around normal. Models in good agreement with progressive pattern as upper trough lifts out of thru the Mid- Atlantic states while upper ridging nudging into the area from the Western Atlantic through Labor Day.
333 PM CDT Fri Sep 1 2017 Main cold front/NW Wind shif t approaching Langdon and Devils Lake at 2030 UTC. Low clouds holding in the Red River valley ahead of the cold front and preventing much heating ahead of the front.
1134 AM MDT Fri Sep 1 2017 Current surface analysis shows low pressure over far eastern MT, with cool front stretching southwest across WY. Above average temps can be expected across the area over the weekend as ridge rebuilds over the western US.
221 PM MDT Fri Sep 1 2017 A weak trough continues to weaken and slide south and east of the central Rockies this Friday afternoon. Southwestern Colorado still appears to be holding on to a bit more moisture along and behind the decaying trough per SPC Mesoanalysis and a few showers have formed along the Continental Divide, aided by slightly stronger westerly flow aloft. Dry air will continue to move southward as high pressure builds in from the west.
1215 PM MDT Fri Sep 1 2017 Imagery shows overly complex upper level pattern with high pressure out over the EPAC and a low pressure trof stretching from the nrn high plains through nern/cntrl WY and into UT. The SFC has a deep trof that stretches from low P centered over nern MT down through the High Plains to nearly nrn TX. High pressure exists between these two low pressure areas with weak(ening) low pressure over the Desert SW. Today through the end of the forecast period another extended dry period begins as a broad upper level high pressure ridge overtakes much of the western CONUS.
Water vapor imagery shows strong ridging over the Pacific NW with heights building into MT. This ridge will bring hot and dry conditions through the weekend.
1113 AM MDT Fri Sep 1 2017 Upper trough swinging through the central Rockies early this morning, with a few showers/sprinkles still lingering across the region as of 10z. Trough will drop sewd through CO today, pushing the cold front through the plains this morning, with boundary reaching the NM border by afternoon.
Model consensus timing of associated cold front indicates that the front will pass through early in the day, keeping temps from rising any higher than the upper 60s/lower 70s before at least slowly falling after fropa. Models advertise much cooler/fall conditions will follow on Tue under blustery n to nw winds/mostly cloudy skies and isolated/scattered showers. Expect dry/warmer conditions on Thu under westerly flow to the s of low pres moving e across far northern Ontario. As high pressure slowly shifts to the east, VFR conditions are expected through tonight with lingering dry air over the region. Ahead of a cold front that will push east across the lake on Saturday, winds will become S-SW and increase to 20 to 30 knots tonight and Saturday.
Upper ridge to the north of the region is providing a strong easterly flow across central california interior today.
A ridge of high pressure will build over the Northern Rockies this weekend, allowing for the hot and very dry conditions to return. High temperatures will likely reach the low 90s for many valleys of western Montana and north-central Idaho starting tomorrow.
156 PM MDT Fri Sep 1 2017 Back edge of upper trof moving across southern and eastern portions of CWA this afternoon with drier and subsident airmass moving into Northern Colorado. Mainly clear skies tonight with cooler overnight lows. The upper ridge will continue to build over the Great Basin on Saturday with warmer temperatures and mainly dry conditions over Colorado.
340 PM EDT Fri Sep 1 2017 Tonight and Saturday will be mainly dry and cool as high pressure resides over the region.
348 PM CDT Fri Sep 1 2017 Trough continues advancing eastward, with a narrow zone of moisture and precip from Lake of the Woods to eastern Nebraska. Models have been pretty consistent in maintaining the modest strength of the upper trough, but system is somewhat disjointed, and total moisture actually lessens as it moves east.
SHORT TERM (Tonight through Saturday night): With the deeper H5 trough departing to the east coast, Deep South Texas will remain in variable midlevel flow, between ridges and troughs.
Broad upper high will move east across southern Oregon and southern Idaho tonight through Saturday night, then center itself over Utah several more days. Ridge will bring clear, hot, and dry weather to our CWA.
301 PM CDT Fri Sep 1 2017 A short wave trough seen on water vapor imagery is currently over the Rockies, sitting between two upper level ridges. This short wave will continue to move around the eastern most ridge tonight. A minor upper level jet max will develop on the downwind side of the trough when the short wave emerges from the Rockies later today. Unfortunately, most of the lift associated with this trough will be directed over the Texas Panhandle into western Oklahoma and will only skirt the FA. A western CONUS ridge will intensify bringing extreme heat to the western United States. On the other side of the country, a deep long wave trough will dig into the eastern CONUS.
* None Strong Canadian high pressure establishes firm control to finish the work week, as the 1026 mb high center slowly expands across lake Huron through the day. This high tucked beneath confluent mid level northwest flow will sustain deep layered dry and stable conditions. Greater prospects for unfiltered sunshine with northwest extent, increasing the probability for warmer readings to focus over the Tri- cities.
210 PM CDT Fri Sep 1 2017 An upper level trough will sweep southeast across the Panhandles tonight. However, a strong upper level short wave trough will dive southward through the central and eastern U.
The high resolution models such as the 01/12Z Univ of AZ WRF-NAM and WRF-GFS suggest that scattered showers/tstms will develop Saturday afternoon mostly across western/central Pima County.
Ahead of this trough, the airmass remains moist and unstable with PWAT values near 2 inches. Overnight lows are generally expected to be in the low to mid 70s.
Winds were light along the I-65 corridor, but away from the low pressure center, winds were gusting over 30 mph. As the low pressure center drifts northeast through the day, the gusty winds will continue to spread into Mid TN areas away from the center of the low. Temps will not change much as clouds and showers hang around and cooler air wraps in from the northwest during the afternoon. The low will continue to lift northeast through the rest of the day. As the low departs, expect gusty NW winds to 25KT to continue at CKV and develop at BNA/MQY.