Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Weak wave aloft will move over the area tonight with an associated cold front which will push southward across the plains later tonight. Saturday will be cooler behind the front but also more stable and will not include any thunderstorms. A few showers over the foothills and even perhaps over the Cheyenne and Palmer ridges may still continue into the evening with little precipitation.
301 PM EDT Fri Apr 14 2017 Currently - High pressure over the eastern United States is driving moderate to fresh northeast to east breezes across the Florida Keys and surrounding waters. A ridge will linger over the southeastern states. With the ridge drawing nearer, expect winds to trend upwards beginning this evening. Zonal flow aloft and only weak mid level ridging will not support any synoptic scale inhibition. Winds will then ease off somewhat as an associated ridge axis across the southeastern United States settles southwards into northern Florida.
Water vapor shows an upper level low over southwestern Saskatchewan with a southwest flow into ND. Greatest synoptic scale and frontogenetical forcing is in the north and this is where the highest chances for precipitation exist Saturday. Much cooler Saturday for most areas with highs in the mid 50s west to mid 60s far southern James River Valley.
257 PM CDT Fri Apr 14 2017 A warm front has settled across northern Illinois this afternoon, leaving Central IL in the upper 70s and lower 80s as warm air surges northward.
The upper level ridge axis is overhead with 500 heights around 580-584 dm. Another mild night is forecast as the ridge shifts slowly to the east. Southerly flow throughout the atmosphere is forecast on Saturday as the ridge axis pushes to the east. A weak upper level trough will pass to the north with PW values of around an inch in SW VA and NE TN. Even though the ridge axis will push to the east, upper level heights will still remain elevated and afternoon highs on Saturday will top out in the upper 70s to low 80s for most locations.
435 PM EDT Fri Apr 14 2017 Through Saturday night: Latest water vapor imagery shows ridging over the eastern CONUS with dry air aloft over the Florida peninsula. Clockwise flow around this high has produced breezy east northeast winds across our CWA today, mainly ranging from 10 to 20 mph. Mixing in the lower levels should discourage the development of fog over the interior.
Models indicated elevated CAPE, so showers and storms can be expected this evening and overnight as a warm front and a mid level short wave trough push northeast across Wisconsin. Models continued to show QPF in the area Saturday morning though little upper level forcing is evident and the cold front first reaches northwest Wisconsin around midday. Later in the day thunderstorms are expected as a mid level short wave and approaching cold front encounter some surface instability. Saturday Night Through Friday The threat for severe weather will continue Saturday night as a cold front sweeps through the western Great Lakes region. The severe weather threat drops precipitously after midnight as the cold front moves east.
A weakening low pressure system offshore will keep the threat of showers going through Saturday.
145 PM EDT Fri Apr 14 2017 High pressure will build southward into the area today and linger over the central NC through Saturday.
Saturday: With upper level ridge axis oriented more over the area. ridge influence should dominate over any diurnally induced upward motion and keep the CWA dry.
220 PM PDT Fri Apr 14 2017 Low pressure moving through the region on Friday night will promote cool, showery, and breezy conditions.
Morning sounding showed good moisture available in the lower levels, with minimal capping except for around 6000 feet. This has allowed some smaller showers to form across the area, and drift northward on low level flow and weak outflow, but have not been able to significantly punch through the cap to tap cooler air aloft for thunder.
West of the front across northwestern Wyoming, a very dry airmass is in place with dewpoints in the low to mid teens. Did go on the low side on dewpoints for Saturday and have wind gusts 35-40 MPH widespread.
A weak weather disturbance will cross northern Utah overnight, sending a cold front south across the state.
A ridge of high pressure at the surface is gradually heading east across the Atlantic coast today. The ridge will continue to drop southeast through the weekend then stall through the early portions of the week. With the ridge remaining over the Atlantic for the next several days, a warm south to southeast flow can be expected. This will keep moisture levels moderately high and afternoon temps generally in the low to mid 80s away from the immediate coast. Through the holiday weekend, upper to mid lvl troughing will keep pops elevated, but mainly across CENLA and Acadiana where moisture lvls will be higher.
Flow aloft over Montana has become westerly with much drier air in the lower levels over plains locations.
The models have a broad trough progressing through the west across the northern Rockies and into the northern plains by tomorrow.
Current conditions across the area feature high pressure still over the area but slowly shifting east. Evidence of moisture finally beginning to enter the area is apparent with cu fields in central and south central Kentucky creeping into the lower I-75 corridor. Still some dry air in place with dew points mostly in the mid 40s will allow temps tonight to drop into the lower 40s for some of the valleys. So will have a ridge to valley temperature difference again.
225 PM CDT Fri Apr 14 2017 Precip temporarily winding down as upper trough pulls away from the region and warm front lifting into northern NE through central IA. Will maintain small chances of a shower or storm across the forecast area Saturday, but the better chance comes along the cold front during the late afternoon, which by then extends from central KS through central IA.
This trough will shift east of the area by mid evening ending the chance of showers and thunderstorms. Then a chance for additional showers and thunderstorms will move back into northeast Missouri and west central Illinois late on Saturday afternoon as a cold front approaches from the northeast. Lows tonight will fall back down into the low to mid 60s.
349 PM CDT Fri Apr 14 2017 (Tonight and Tomorrow) Weather conditions for tonight and tomorrow will be dry with morning lows in the lower 60s, around 10 degrees warmer than seasonal normals, and afternoon highs in the upper 70s to the lower 80s, close to seasonal normals.
RH values will be lowered across the northeast quadrant into the lower 20s, so fire danger is a concern. Surface map at 07Z shows a ridge of high pressure near the East Coast with a weak isobaric pattern over Middle Tennessee. Temperatures will level off after today, but don't look for a pattern shift anytime soon, as high pressure to our east remains largely stationary over the next several days and offers an early glimpse of a summer-like pattern. The next cold front will approach from the west this weekend, but will rotate around the surface/upper high instead of pass through.
A large low pressure trough resides over SW Canada and NW U. The low pressure system over SW Canada and NW U.
1114 PM CDT Wed Sep 28 2016 A ridge will remain over the plains with mild and dry weather persisting through the short term. Northeast winds are expected to increase this afternoon and will then turn more southerly as a closed low across the Great Lakes Region drops south into the Ohio valley and another low in the North Pacific digs and moves on shore. The movement of these features will shift the back side of the ridge over our area and put us into southerly flow. It will remain dry and mild on Thursday with high temperatures just a few degrees cooler tomorrow as the Great Lakes low pulls down a cooler airmass.
A region of high pressure continues to bring quiet and clear weather across the region this Wednesday evening. An upper level ridge across the Northern Plains will remain in place tonight into Thursday. Under the upper level ridge, slightly above normal temperatures are expected on Thursday.
1159 PM CDT WED SEP 28 2016 Quiet weather continues in the short term with the upper low to our east continuing to spin across the Ohio Valley.
(Issued 806 PM CDT Wed Sep 28 2016) Latest observations show the cold front is entering northern Alabama as of 01Z. As the upper level low shifts south the main energy and upper level jet streak driving the showers will shift east. The strato-cu under the core of the upper level low are not expected to make it into the area until late Thursday morning. Stumpf For 06Z TAFs: The cold front has moved completely through the area. As the upper level low over the midwest shifts south tonight into Thursday expect winds to ramp back up after sunrise Thursday.
This afternoon, the prominent upper level low was located over northern Illinois/Indiana and is expected to continue drifting south through tomorrow. High temperatures today have been lowered slightly with very northeast Kansas topping out in the high 60s. Similar day tomorrow as today with dry conditions and cool temperatures expected as the upper level ridge to the west begins to move into western Kansas. Upper ridging dominates much of the region through the week as the closed low remains nearly stationary over the Midwest.
Latest observations show the cold front is entering northern Alabama as of 01Z. As the upper level low shifts south the main energy and upper level jet streak driving the showers will shift east. The strato-cu under the core of the upper level low are not expected to make it into the area until late Thursday morning. Stumpf (Issued 655 PM CDT Wed Sep 28 2016) For 00Z TAFs: Radar fine-line suggests that reinforcing cold front is currently entering nw AL, with wind shift to nnw anticipated by 01Z/MSL and 02Z/HSV.
Winds will be light initially, but will return from the north/northeast tomorrow morning as another cold front moves into the area. Overnight lows will range from the upper 50s across the Hill Country to the lower and mid 60s elsewhere. A cool night is in store for Thursday evening with overnight lows dropping to the lower 50s across the Hill Country.
725 PM EDT Wed Sep 28 2016 A cold front was located over the far NW portion of the JKL forecast area at mid afternoon, and was moving SE. Showers were occurring near and behind the front, with thunderstorms further northwest over IN where colder air aloft was located near an upper low center. Instability wanes again on Thursday night, and models agree on a dry slot of sorts wrapping around the upper low, with the result being most precip drying up during the night. Very blocky pattern will continue into the upcoming weekend with the upper level low continuing to spin over the Ohio river valley.
953 PM MDT Wed Sep 28 2016 Deep closed low will remain in place over the great lakes with nw conus troughing ongoing. Mean ridging has resulted in the northern plains. However, the nw conus trough will now be close enough to influence the region with periphery impulses. Pressure falls will ensue tonight with reflected se flow under lee side troughing.
However, drier air is expected to filter into S TX overnight as reinforcing high pressure builds into the area. This will maintain mild/cooler temps and dry conditions overnight into Thu. Reinforcing surge of high pressure/front is prog to arrive late tonight into Thursday morning.
Current showers along the trough are expected to dissipated in significant low level dry air prior to reaching terminals.
540 PM MDT WED SEP 28 2016 Clear skies over almost the entire CWA this afternoon with just some cumulus clouds over the higher mtns. These clouds indicative of a slow increase in moisture advecting from the south ahead of an upper low over the CA/AZ border area. This low will open and eject northeastward on Thursday as an upper ridge over the high plains drifts eastward.
Deep southwest flow on Thu, with plenty of moisture and 500 mb temps staying cooler than normal, point towards showers/storms marching west to east across the peninsula again.
931 PM EDT WED SEP 28 2016 Approaching upper low and associated surface front with a reinforcing shot of cold air is approaching our NW counties this evening. Chattanooga Airport, TN 55 72 52 73 / 10 20 10 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 56 70 50 70 / 20 30 20 20 Oak Ridge, TN 54 71 51 71 / 20 30 20 20 Tri Cities Airport, TN 54 70 51 70 / 20 60 40 20.
649 PM CDT WED SEP 28 2016 Upper low continues to meander southeastward toward central Indiana this afternoon. Next batch of scattered showers is starting to move into areas around Bloomington and Champaign as the next trough rotates into central Illinois. Areas further west from the low toward the Illinois River valley will see some clearing take place this evening, as clouds are more diurnal in nature in that area. Upper low will drift south into central Kentucky on Thursday, with showers on the increase by mid morning across mainly the eastern half of the CWA. Once again, clouds will be in no hurry to move out, although the Illinois River valley may see enough sunshine to boost temperatures into the lower 70s.
Cold front is clearly depicted on the latest sfc analysis. The upper trough axis is providing the post frontal lift with some pva moving through the area. Thus, will continue with the higher pops east theme for the fcst. Moving forward, the upper low will move very slowly southward through tomorrow afternoon.
659 PM CDT WED SEP 28 2016 Quiet weather continues in the short term with the upper low to our east continuing to spin across the Ohio Valley.
1146 PM CDT WED SEP 28 2016 /06Z TAFS/ A weak cold front will gradually shift winds north to northeast at 10 KTS or less tonight and early Thursday. A weak cold front along the Red River will move through West Central Texas late tonight and early Thursday morning, shifting winds to the north around 10 KTS. A cold front is sliding across Western Oklahoma and the Panhandle, with this front moving into West Central Texas late tonight and early Thursday morning. Cooler on Thursday afternoon behind the front, with highs in the mid and upper 70s. (Thursday Night through Wednesday) A quiet weather pattern is forecast through this weekend as weak upper level ridging dominates Texas.
1017 PM EDT WED SEP 28 2016 A large upper level low brings unsettled weather into the area tonight. A broad and deep upper low over the Great Lakes region will move south over the OH Valley and WV tonight.
614 PM CDT Wed Sep 28 2016 A cold front has push south through the area and is generally located near the Arkansas Missouri border early this afternoon. A cooler air mass is spreading south into the area behind the front. Lows tonight will drop into the middle 40s with some spots dropping into the lower 40s tonight. Highs on Thursday will again top out in the upper 60s to the lower 70s across the region.
the cutoff area of low pressure to our north will help move a cold front down to the south over the next 24-48 hours.
633 PM CDT Wed Sep 28 2016 A ridge will remain over the plains with mild and dry weather persisting through the short term. Northeast winds are expected to increase this afternoon and will then turn more southerly as a closed low across the Great Lakes Region drops south into the Ohio valley and another low in the North Pacific digs and moves on shore. The movement of these features will shift the back side of the ridge over our area and put us into southerly flow. It will remain dry and mild on Thursday with high temperatures just a few degrees cooler tomorrow as the Great Lakes low pulls down a cooler airmass.
Light and variable winds expected to shift to the North with the passage of a cold front overnight with winds increasing to 5-8 knots. /issued 931 PM CDT WED SEP 28 2016/ Reinforcing cold front making its way swd into our region tonight, and is roughly located along the Red River of TX/OK ewd to near Pine Bluff in AR. Cooler and even drier air will filter into the region overnight, and with clear skies expected, temps will fall into the 50s at most sites.
A weak upper low over southern California will draw moisture up from Tropical Depression Roslyn, bringing it northward across western New Mexico tonight through Thursday night.
The upper low will continue to slowly slide southeastward towards the Ohio Valley during this time, with upper ridging building across the northern plains. Expect lows generally around 40, but with some variability in temps over the region, cooler locations could potentially see some 30s and patchy frost.
725 PM EDT Wed Sep 28 2016 A large, slow moving low pressure system will settle into the Tennessee Valley tonight, then lift through the Northeast this weekend.
High pressure will keep skies clear overnight with light winds. High pressure over the area will allow dry and stable conditions to continue.
832 PM EDT WED SEP 28 2016 A cold front will slowly push into the area through tonight and Thursday. Cooler and drier more seasonable temperatures expected late in the week and over the weekend with little rain chances. Upper level low remains near the Ohio Valley with a cold front trying to cross the forecast area. Closed upper level low over the Ohio valley during the period. Guidance temperatures a little warmer than previous runs and cold advection lagging to the west.
822 PM CDT WED SEP 28 2016 For the 29/00Z terminal forecast period expecting VFR flight categories with patchy high cirrus around 25 kft at times and possibly some brief scattered clouds around 4 kft with turbulent mixing with cold frontal passage as winds shift. The surface winds will be more gusty during the late morning into the middle of the afternoon as the pressure gradient tightens as high pressure builds into the region. /issued 342 PM CDT WED SEP 28 2016/ A broad upper trough will become cut off over the middle Ohio River Valley while an upper ridge builds over the Plains. A cold front currently in Oklahoma and Arkansas will quickly move across our area by sunrise Thursday morning.
Surface dewpoints from Albany down through Dothan are still running in the lower 70s, and it appears that little additional drier air, at least at the surface, will find its way into the region overnight. However, further back upstream across the Tennessee Valley, a second drier cold front is on its way and will be bringing our first real taste of drier air this fall. Aloft, vapor imagery shows the mid level trough across the Ohio Valley continuing to drop southward. Out ahead of the main trough axis, there's still enough forcing to generate isolated convection overnight across the Florida Big Bend and over the adjacent waters in Apalachee Bay. However, further east, temperatures will remain warm, in the lower 70s overnight.
809 PM EDT WED SEP 28 2016 Aviation A large area of low pressure will remain anchored over the Great Lakes through much of the weekend. of the upper low as it tracks across Michigan and south to Indiana. This is in response to a short wave pivoting around the upper low that's anchored over indiana.
A weak cold front along the Red River will move through West Central Texas late tonight and early Thursday morning, shifting winds to the north around 10 KTS. A cold front is sliding across Western Oklahoma and the Panhandle, with this front moving into West Central Texas late tonight and early Thursday morning. Cooler on Thursday afternoon behind the front, with highs in the mid and upper 70s. (Thursday Night through Wednesday) A quiet weather pattern is forecast through this weekend as weak upper level ridging dominates Texas.
/Issued 235 PM CDT WED SEP 28 2016/ Current upper level analysis shows cutoff closed low moving into the Ohio Valley while high pressure builds into the southern Plains. A weak front in association with closed low has shifted surface winds to the northeast across the Panhandles.
1155 PM CDT Wed Sep 28 2016 A cold front has push south through the area and is generally located near the Arkansas Missouri border early this afternoon. A cooler air mass is spreading south into the area behind the front. Lows tonight will drop into the middle 40s with some spots dropping into the lower 40s tonight. Highs on Thursday will again top out in the upper 60s to the lower 70s across the region.
609 PM CDT Wed Sep 28 2016 A region of high pressure continues to bring quiet and clear weather across the region this Wednesday evening. An upper level ridge across the Northern Plains will remain in place tonight into Thursday. Under the upper level ridge, slightly above normal temperatures are expected on Thursday.
1135 PM CDT WED SEP 28 2016 Upper low is sinking south out of the Great Lakes region and into the Ohio Valley while upper ridging is strengthening over the Rockies. At the surface, a cold front extends from western KS into northern AR, with another shot of cooler air moving over the area. In addition, a cold front will also pass through during the Tue through Wed time frame which will increase rain chances. Cooler Canadian air will continue to advect south across central and eastern Kansas overnight.
/issued 327 PM CDT WED SEP 28 2016/ A cold front is moving south across the Mid-South this afternoon, extending roughly from Little Rock, to just north of Memphis, to Clarksville. Behind the cold front, winds are from the north and northwest at 10-15 mph with temperatures in the mid 70s to lower 80s. Temperatures will largely be in the low/mid 50s by 7AM Thursday. The large, cyclonic vortex associated with this cold front will remain quasi-stationary over the Ohio Valley for the next few days, maintaining northwesterly flow aloft. Enhanced moisture in the lower half of the troposphere will support a small chance for showers, mainly in the area around Paris tomorrow afternoon as a lobe of enhanced vorticity rotates around the low. Temperatures will be cooler on Thursday afternoon, with highs in the upper 60s to mid 70s.
716 PM EDT WED SEP 28 2016 A cold front will slowly push into the area through tonight and Thursday. Cooler and drier more seasonable temperatures expected late in the week and over the weekend with little rain chances. Upper level low pressure over the Ohio Valley region will sink slightly southward tonight providing southwesterly flow aloft over the forecast area. The highest coverage will shift east tonight with the front. Overnight lows are expected to be coolest west behind the front in the lower 60s with upper 60s east. Closed upper level low over the Ohio valley during the period. Guidance temperatures a little warmer than previous runs and cold advection lagging to the west.
Winds throughout much of the troposphere are from the northwest with the exception of some winds from the west in the low levels.
642 PM CDT Wed Sep 28 2016 309 PM CDT The main forecast concern continues to be with shower activity driven by the well defined upper level low pressure pivoting southward across the region. There should then be a lull followed by more at least scattered showers associated with upper low with some lake enhancement possible overnight into early Thursday. However with the upper low farther south, far north and northwest parts of the area, including Rockford and vicinity, could stay completely dry. Warming aloft should enable warmer temperatures in the 60s to around 70, though am concerned with persistent clouds and strong onshore flow, the lakeshore could be kept cooler than in current forecast. RC 316 PM CDT The upper level low that brought fall conditions to the region today will impact the region through most of the weekend.
739 PM EDT WED SEP 28 2016 A large upper level low brings unsettled weather into the area tonight. Buying into the high res models RAP/HRRR in the diminishing coverage into tonight. A broad and deep upper low over the Great Lakes region will move south over the OH Valley and WV tonight.
944 PM CDT WED SEP 28 2016 Wx map shows dry and stronger cold front moving through the Red River valley, just entering North Texas this evening.