Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
358 AM CDT Thu Apr 14 2022 Winter travel impacts to continue through the day and possibly into this evening as the slow moving upper low continues to weaken and transition east. Actual snow probabilities still favor lighter totals for all but our north and the higher terrain of MN where 2-3" is more likely. As the low pressure shifts east stronger north-northwest unidirectional gradient develops late this morning and northwest winds are likely to gust around 45 mph over parts of the Red River Valley into west central MN (outside of our current advisories).
327 AM CDT Thu Apr 14 2022 A cold front is moving through the mid state at this hour, chasing a thin band of showers across our eastern counties. It will be much cooler than yesterday, but still mild with highs in the mid 60s everywhere.
A cold front will slide through today and put an end to the rain behind it. High pressure builds in on Friday, with sunny skies and temperatures warming back into the 80s.
141 AM EDT Thu Apr 14 2022 Aviation Cold front is coming ashore as of 1030pm with Manistee and Ludington where winds have already shifted to the west. Deep layer shear in this region is on the low side. As cold front in western Illinois pushes east late this afternoon and evening there will be a window where better deep layer shear and some instability could come together in our CWA. Then from 04z to 07z a narrow line of shallow convection develops on the cold front. The arrival of the cold front has brought gusty winds with gusts upwards of 45 mph. Cigs will improve after the front passes and cooler, drier air mixes in and lifts and dissipates the low clouds.
Relative humidities will once again drop into the low to mid teens across northwestern and far western Oklahoma today.
Reimer Upper low gradually spinning east across the Dakotas continues to bring wrap-around snow into eastern Montana this afternoon. Snow amounts across the lower elevations look to be minimal at this time.
The upper low pressure system responsible for yesterday's severe weather will gradually spin eastward across the upper Midwest and into southern Canada through the short term period.
417 AM EDT Thu Apr 14 2022 Windy and cooler weather today with showers ending early.
At the surface, transient high pressure system will move from the lower Mississippi Valley towards the Mid Atlantic states with prominent presence in the lower Ohio Valley today. Overall, expect drier and cooler conditions for the next 24 hours as a weak cold front exists through the east right after sunrise. The rest of the forecast is characterized by clear skies and high temperatures falling 10 to even 20 degrees cooler than yesterday's maximum readings. Lows on Friday will fall once again to the low 40s/upper 30s, except in the metro areas where temperatures can stay a few degrees warmer. Friday looks to be the warmest day, with return flow ahead of a moisture-starved cold front. With the ridge axis overhead Sat night, we'll see temps dipping well into the mid 30s across southern Indiana and the Bluegrass region of Kentucky.
Closed low continues to rotate over the Dakotas, with moderate snow over north central North Dakota. As the mid-level cyclone shifts east overnight, snowfall rates should fall below the 1 inch/hour that area has been experiencing for much of today. The low is becoming vertically stacked through H5 and that is forecast to be about complete this evening.
1058 PM CDT Wed Apr 13 2022 Key Messages: - Strong, gusty winds on Thursday - Well below average temps through the weekend Tonight Latest water vapor satellite imagery shows upper level closed low spinning over the Northern Plains States. Several pieces of energy are rotating around the upper level closed low per the water vapor satellite imagery.
This activity will continue to spread to the northwest and could affect the Lower and Middle Keys this morning, before dissipating after sunrise. Weak ridging will encompass the Keys during the weekend, with persistent onshore flow which will advect higher moisture content into the area periodically and induce a few showers.
Will allow the High Wind Warning to expire at 06z, then replace it with a Wind Advisory until 00z Fri. The low pressure system remains nearly stationary over eastern North Dakota this afternoon with a tight surface pressure gradient and cold advection combining to produce strong and gusty northwest winds, especially from northwestern into south central South Dakota, where gusts over 60 mph are occurring this afternoon. The low pressure system will drift slowly eastward tonight and on Thursday. An inch or two of additional snow accumulation is possible there overnight, with the higher amounts closer to the North Dakota border. High temperatures on Thursday will be only slightly warmer than today.
A potent low pressure system with an area of strong warm air advection will continue to develop an area of precipitation this afternoon and evening. Some models are suggesting locally higher accumulations may be possible, though with snow initially melting on warm surfaces, and the highest accumulations expected mainly on grassy surfaces, we opted to issue Winter Weather Advisories rather than warnings for areas north and east of the Iron Range. A broad upper level trough with low to mid level cyclonic flow will continue to bring chances for snow showers through Friday.
1142 PM CDT Wed Apr 13 2022 A trough is situated over the Northern Plains with a segment stretching along the Mississippi River Valley, and the system is deepening as it tracks to the east. After a morning wintry mix, cooler air behind the cold front that moved through last night kept Kansas well below normal (~15 degrees) with afternoon temperatures in the 40s to low 50s.
323 AM EDT Thu Apr 14 2022 A cold front will push through the region today, bringing another round of showers and thunderstorms, with a few strong storms possible east of I-81. High pressure will drier weather on Friday, but gusty winds are also expected. Another cold front will bring additional showers and cooler temperatures this weekend. Short wave and associated surface cold front will push through the region today. Overall, the severe threat will be low, but can't completely be ruled out, especially across the Catskills, where the highest instability will be realized. Friday will be a dry day with ridging cresting overhead. Strong SW flow develops over the area with a tight pressure gradient between the high pressure over the Carolinas and strong low pressure in Ontario, Canada. On Friday, a broad upper trough will be over the Great Lakes.
While a strong wave quickly rides from Texas to Wisconsin today around the strong upper low to our north, we are seeing widespread rain, drizzle, and a few thunderstorms with pea size hail along and west of the cold front this afternoon. After starting the day in the lower to mid 60s, we are now in the lower to mid 40s over eastern Iowa. This favors troughing in the east allowing for a wetter/cool regime. However, moisture is quite limited in the low levels so if any rain does occur it would be minimal.
A cold moist and unsettled pattern will continue through the period as an unseasonably deep upper trough resides over the Pacific Northwest and a series of Pacific disturbances traverse our area. A disturbance and instability were resulting in snow showers (mixed with rain in the lowest valleys) this afternoon, along with an isolated thunderstorm. Snow levels will rise to between 4000 and 5000 feet south of the front (near the Nevada border) with additional snow accumulations expected in the higher elevations. There will be a drier period between systems late Thursday night through Friday, although light snow showers will linger in the higher elevations. The lower valleys will have a mix of rain and snow with little or no accumulation expected. Temperatures will trend slightly warmer each day, but still well below normal.
06Z TAF discussion: SHRA/TS are exiting the area as a cold front continues to push past the region.
317 AM CDT Thu Apr 14 2022 At 3 AM CDT, stacked low pressure was centered near the Minnesota/North Dakota border, with an occluded front into Michigan. A cold front extended from Michigan to near Huntsville to McComb and Lake Charles. Temperatures behind the line of thunderstorms had fallen into the lower and middle 60s, but north of the cold front, temperatures in northern Louisiana had fallen to around 50 degrees.
(This afternoon through Thursday night) A cold front pushed through the region this morning, resulting in gusty northwest winds and cooler weather. Temperatures this afternoon will be some 10-15 degrees cooler than yesterday with most areas reaching the mid 70s by late afternoon. Despite the cooler weather, very dry air and gusty winds continue resulting in continued fire weather concerns, see the Fire Weather Discussion for more details. Morning lows on Thursday are expected to fall back into the low 40s and upper 30s across much of the region. Temperatures may even fall to freezing in parts of Southeast New Mexico and the far northwestern Permian Basin.
West-northwest winds have started backing to a southwest direction and will continue to do so through daybreak as the high works into the Tennessee River Valley. An upper low will continue to rotate over Ontario going into the end of the week, keeping cyclonic surface flow in place across the Midwest. Dry air in the low levels should prevent much of this from reaching the ground, but cannot rule out a light shower or sprinkle throughout the day.
1148 PM EDT Wed Apr 13 2022 Showers and thunderstorms are expected tonight and into Thursday morning with the approach and passage of a cold front.
Widespread showers/scattered storms will continue as the band continues pushing ssewd to the coastal waters over the next several hours with cooler/drier air associated with the crossing cold front expected keep filling in behind it. Convection is beginning to fire across the area this afternoon ahead of the cold front extending across northeast Texas this afternoon. Much cooler, drier air will advect into the region Thursday morning on brisk northerly winds. High pressure will quickly slide across the southern plains Thursday and off the east coast by Friday morning turning winds back out of the south and lifting a warm front out of the gulf.
An intense low pressure system, moving across the eastern Dakotas and into Minnesota, will draw strong westerly winds across the forecast area today.
1028 PM CDT Wed Apr 13 2022 (This evening through Thursday) Calm conditions return as storms as well as the cold front has cleared Oklahoma and western north Texas to the east.
After a cool start to the day, temperatures will make a strong recovery today with a dry airmass, full sunshine and an 850mb thermal ridge building to our west. Highs this afternoon will be mostly in the lower to mid 80s, but a few upper 80s are possible in the Concho Valley. Temperatures will be warmer tonight with southeast to south winds.
A cold front was now entering far northwest AL into middle TN and will shift winds to the northwest. Gusts behind this will remain 20kt or less, and winds will subside this morning as high pressure builds east through AR into TN. The cell of high pressure will shift east into the middle Atlantic States tonight into Friday.
427 AM EDT Thu Apr 14 2022 The recent spring warmup will come to an end today as a cold front sweeps across central PA. Brief downpours will accompany the cold front from west to east with a threat for strong to potentially damaging thunderstorm wind gusts confined to the eastern portions of the middle to lower Susquehanna Valley. Temperatures will trend modestly cooler to near seasonal averages with a showery start to the weekend.
Dewpoints will continue to run on the low side with values only in the single digits across western Kansas to only in the upper teens across central Kansas. A backdoor cold front will start to approach the region early Friday morning. As a result, have sharpened up the high temperature gradient with only around 60 north to around 80 south. Breezy north to northeast winds are expected in the wake of the dry backdoor cold front.
Deep upper level low pressure located near the MN/ND border early this morning is in the processes of filling. The upper low progresses northeastward toward Hudson Bay region on Friday. This will drive a back door cold front southwest across the area.
Surface analysis early this morning places a cold front from Lake Huron south through Middle Tennessee, Northern/Central Alabama, and back through Southern Mississippi. GOES-16 satellite trends indicate clearing occurring across the Mid-South behind the cold front with gusty northwest winds bringing some cooler air into the forecast area.
219 AM CDT Thu Apr 14 2022 The strong upper level low the brought stormy and wet weather to our region will continue to exit northeast as its influence begins to wane over our area. A weak cold front will push southward through the region Friday afternoon keeping central Kansas cooler in the mid 60s.
Temperatures are still very mild because of the south winds with temperatures still in the lower 70s. Dew points are only in the lower to mid 50s so best instability is definitely west and south. Chattanooga Airport, TN 72 47 78 56 75 / 30 0 0 40 30 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 69 43 77 52 74 / 40 0 0 30 30 Oak Ridge, TN 70 43 76 51 74 / 40 0 0 40 30 Tri Cities Airport, TN 66 39 73 48 71 / 30 0 0 30 30 TN.
A cooler and drier start this morning in the wake of yesterday's cold front. Highs today are forecast to range from the low to mid 80s northeast to near 90 southwest under mostly sunny skies. Winds will gradually veer back to the east and southeast through the day as the low level ridge axis slides east.
435 AM EDT Thu Apr 14 2022 A cold front moves through the area today with scattered to numerous showers and a few thunderstorms. High pressure builds in tonight into Friday with dry weather and cooler temperatures.
The cold front promoting the convection will move east the state the evening, with cool conditions prevailing overnight. Another cold front will quickly approach late Friday, and will promote additional convection.
A strong pressure gradient is developing between high pressure over Arkansas and a deep closed low which will move from North Dakota into Minnesota today. Additionally the northern portion of our area will be in a saddle point of the pressure field between the southern high which will be moving Tennessee Valley, a second high beginning to build into the northwest Plains, and two lows, the one over Minnesota, and another developing trough over the Oklahoma Panhandle. Temperatures in northeast Missouri may dip to near freezing due to the cool start to the evening, but the remainder of the area should stay in the 40s.
Today Through Friday Night THURSDAY(today): A cooler and drier airmass has moved into the Natural State in wake of the FROPA. At the sfc, a parent low pressure moves across Canada w/ connecting cold front to a secondary low pressure across western Kansas. Furthermore, a warm front lifts from the Gulf Coast northward across the state later into the day. The lifting warm front advects moisture and warmer temperatures into the state. High temperatures during the day on Friday will be around 10 degrees warmer than normal for this time of the year for locations along and south of the I-40 corridor.
To start us off at 12Z Friday we'll have the large/strong surface-500mb low over Ontario with a trough extending west across the U. At the surface, high pressure will be set up across southern Saskatchewan and MT.
A cold front, associated with an occluded storm system over the northern Plains, has shifted well east of the area into western Ohio early this morning. In its wake, much cooler and drier conditions have returned to the area. The one negating factor to a more significant fire weather threat, that can typically accompany such windy and dry conditions, is the high fuel moisture from yesterdays heavy rainfall.
Tonight through Friday night: Trough will exit to the east as a zonal to northwest flow takes over.
1229 AM CDT Thu Apr 14 2022 Quiet weather is expected through the short term as strong upper level low pressure system remains over the northern Plains before pushing north and east. This will result in cooler than normal temperatures through Thursday night. Normal lows for this time of year are in the low to mid 30s.
334 AM EDT Thu Apr 14 2022 Discussion - Cold front Passage This Morning A line of showers will continue to move across Michigan this morning accompanying the passage of the cold front. The cooler and drier air should have a downsloping effect though there is some concern about how long the atmosphere will be able to mix up that high. However given the cooler, drier air that seems unlikely. - Cooler weather through the weekend The winds will diminish Thursday evening with winds increasing again on Friday.
258 AM MDT Thu Apr 14 2022 Satellite imagery overnight shows a robust cyclone continuing to spin over the ern Dakotas, promoting ongoing blizzard conditions across much of ND into nwrn SD.
High pressure and dry conditions are anticipated for Friday.
335 AM EDT Thu Apr 14 2022 - Cold front Passage This Morning A line of showers will continue to move across Michigan this morning accompanying the passage of the cold front. The cooler and drier air should have a downsloping effect though there is some concern about how long the atmosphere will be able to mix up that high. However given the cooler, drier air that seems unlikely. - Cooler weather through the weekend The winds will diminish Thursday evening with winds increasing again on Friday.
1214 AM CDT Thu Apr 14 2022 (The rest of tonight) Surface winds continue to diminish this evening as ridging conditions settle in. Light winds and clear skies will allow temps to fall quickly the remainder of the night, with lows dipping to near freezing for NE OK into NW AR and lower/mid 30s elsewhere.
Warm and dry conditions are expected today, with afternoon highs roughly 5-10 degrees cooler than yesterday. Another warm day is expected for Friday, with temperatures ranging from near 80 close to the coast to the low 90s across the western Brush Country.
/issued 317 AM CDT Thu Apr 14 2022/ At 3 AM CDT, stacked low pressure was centered near the Minnesota/North Dakota border, with an occluded front into Michigan. A cold front extended from Michigan to near Huntsville to McComb and Lake Charles. Temperatures behind the line of thunderstorms had fallen into the lower and middle 60s, but north of the cold front, temperatures in northern Louisiana had fallen to around 50 degrees.
Overnight low temperatures forecast to fall into the lower 50s. A warm front will lift north allowing for very isolated showers and thunderstorms in its wake across portions of north-central Louisiana during the afternoon hours. Temperatures on Friday to climb into the lower 80s.
High pressure provides a break in snowfall activity Friday night.
523 AM MDT Thu Apr 14 2022 Satellite imagery overnight shows a robust cyclone continuing to spin over the ern Dakotas, promoting ongoing blizzard conditions across much of ND into nwrn SD.
Amounts through this evening should range from 1-2" in the higher elevations of the North Bay Hills, to around 0. 5" across the lower elevations of the Bay Area, to 0.
635 AM CDT Thu Apr 14 2022 The strong upper level low the brought stormy and wet weather to our region will continue to exit northeast as its influence begins to wane over our area. A weak cold front will push southward through the region Friday afternoon keeping central Kansas cooler in the mid 60s.
Satellite imagery overnight shows a robust cyclone continuing to spin over the ern Dakotas, promoting ongoing blizzard conditions across much of ND into nwrn SD.
704 AM CDT Thu Apr 14 2022 Low pressure center continues to transition eastward across the southern RRV this morning, THere have been a few more organized bands near the pivot on the northwest quadrant of the mid/upper low, but this has been relatively transient. Winter travel impacts to continue through the day and possibly into this evening as the slow moving upper low continues to weaken and transition east. Actual snow probabilities still favor lighter totals for all but our north and the higher terrain of MN where 2-3" is more likely. As the low pressure shifts east stronger north-northwest unidirectional gradient develops late this morning and northwest winds are likely to gust around 45 mph over parts of the Red River Valley into west central MN (outside of our current advisories).
From a sensible weather point of view, it will be a nicer day today than yesterday as it will be 15 to 20F warmer across the plains and about 10F warmer in the SLV. Snow showers will continue in the central mtns today with very light accumulations likely at the higher elevations. Temps are expected to be several degrees warmer tonight as compared to this mornings low temps, with mainly 30s on the plains and 20s in the SLV. Winds will be light over the lowe elevations with an uptick in winds over the mtns (winds in the higher mtns will be 15 to 30 mph).
Southeast Arizona will be dominated by a zonal flow with storm systems passing well north of our area, and strong high pressure over central Mexico.
506 AM EDT Thu Apr 14 2022 High pressure will ridge across the area today as a cold front approaches from the NW. Weak high pressure builds in for the weekend, with a few afternoon storms still possible each day.
750 AM EDT Thu Apr 14 2022 Aviation - Cold front Passage This Morning A line of showers will continue to move across Michigan this morning accompanying the passage of the cold front. The cooler and drier air should have a downsloping effect though there is some concern about how long the atmosphere will be able to mix up that high. However given the cooler, drier air that seems unlikely. - Cooler weather through the weekend The winds will diminish Thursday evening with winds increasing again on Friday.
The forecast calls for slight rain chances through the afternoon, with highs in the lower to mid 80s. High pressure over the west central Atlantic will result in gentle to moderate east to southeast breezes through late tonight. The area of high pressure will slide slowly eastward through the weekend, resulting in slackening east to southeasterly breezes.
813 AM EDT Thu Apr 14 2022 Broad upper level troughing over the eastern US continues today as an embedded short wave trough moves out of the northeast Gulf of Mexico and across north FL. Atlantic high pressure stretches across the state to the eastern Gulf with a relaxed gradient. An approaching cold front settles into the area tonight. While moisture is limited there is enough for the short wave trough to produce some showers and a tstorms or two across the Nature Coast this morning. Atlantic high pressure generally dominates as a couple of weak fronts slip through.
641 AM EDT Thu Apr 14 2022 Windy and cooler weather today with showers ending early.
An upper level trough will remain the dominant influence across the Pacific Northwest for the remainder of the week and into the weekend, allowing for continued showery weather and below normal temperatures.
That clearing combined with a cold antecedent deep-layer airmass will aid in widespread freezing temperatures across many valley locations in Del Norte, Humboldt, Trinity, northern Mendocino, and northern Lake Counties. The one caveat that might preclude widespread freezing conditions will be the ever-possible valley fog development that would preclude maximal radiational cooling. Nevertheless, confidence in freezing temperatures is at or above 50 percent.
Pleasant day ahead as high pressure over Arkansas shifts east- southeast which will push the cold front in the coastal waters further south and stalls. By Friday afternoon the rain chances over the region should increase as the low levels moisten up quickly. Rain chances diminish quickly Friday evening as the upper ridge over Mexico shifts east and weakens/flattens drying out the column but with the very low levels remaining moist. A cold front over Oklahoma will be moving south with a frontal low tracking down the Red River but more on that in the longer term.