Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
The upper level trough remains offshore this morning and the area is currently seeing a break in the showers. Showers will continue much of the night as the upper level trough moves through.
Quiet Saturday is expected across the region, with low pressure passing by well to the south bringing just an increase in high cloud cover especially south of the I-69 corridor. Extensive surface ridging will remain in place across the area both today and Sunday as a large high pressure system builds expands into southern Quebec in the wake of aforementioned upper low pressure over the northeast CONUS (as it shift southeast over the western Atlantic ocean and become cutoff from the northern stream storm track).
The warm front that moved northward last night is draped across southern KY, apparent by the colder temperatures to the north, a fairly prevalent wind shift and a few thunderstorms that have been traversing the front in southern KY over the last couple of hours. I still think the best chance for soaking rain is going to be relegated to areas along and north of the I-40 corridor due to the location of the warm front.
925 AM EDT Sat Mar 24 2018 Weak high pressure will be in control of the area today. Low pressure will move across the southeast states tonight.
Warmer and Continued Dry. Current forecast for high temperatures in the mid/upper 70s inland was on track with an afternoon sea breeze expected to bring cooler temperatures to the coast where high temps will top out in the low/mid 70s. Passing mid and high clouds will continue to settle farther south across SE GA this morning and across parts of NE FL into the afternoon with some diurnally enhanced low level cumulus popping as low level ridge across FL edges farther ESE through the afternoon.
00Z run of the NAM has cooled 2-3 C in the 925-850 mb layer suggesting the entire profile would remain below freezing, while the GFS continues to maintain the warm nose in this layer.
A cold front will disrupt southerly flow across the area, bringing north/northeast winds into the area late morning into early afternoon. An upper level low currently moving across the central plains will send a weak cold front into the region tomorrow.
721 AM EDT Sat Mar 24 2018 A trough of low pressure will drop southwest through the region today and will push into southern New England overnight.
718 AM EDT Sat Mar 24 2018 Expansive high pressure centered over Hudson Bay will nose south across our region this weekend.
628 AM CDT Sat Mar 24 2018 Snow extends east of the James valley at 3am, with Dual Pol supporting snow as the main P-type, though profiles do lose ice in the dendritic growth zone as the morning progresses from west to east, but with loss of forcing any additional freezing drizzle will be very light. Thankfully temperatures are hovering around freezing so despite stratus, late March sunshine should be good enough to get us into the mid 30s.
MVFR cigs are expected to dvlp tonight as a weak cold front drops into the area. /22/ Today and tonight: early morning surface analysis had an 1001mb low centered over eastern Kansas and an 1024mb high centered over the Florida Peninsula ridging back to the west across the northern Gulf. Both of these features will weaken through tonight and drop a weak cold front into our CWA that is still expected to stall near the Interstate 20 corridor by Sunday morning. This activity is expected to expand across the Highway 82 corridor today and then farther south after midnight tonight when the cold front drops in. The cooler air in the wake of the cold front tonight will allow our northern zones to bottom out in the 50s but morning lows will be well above normal elsewhere, in the lower 60s.
Temperatures were a little chilly this morning again, but were 5-8 degrees warmer than 24 hours ago and will continue to warm through the day topping out in the mid 70's to around 80 this afternoon. High pressure over the region today will shift out into the Atlantic on Sunday with light winds and seas through the weekend. Another area of high pressure over the northeast will extend southward across the region through the early part of the week, with an easterly flow setting up.
Meanwhile, a trailing cold front is located over Oklahoma. As of 10 AM CDT, temperatures across the Mid-South are in the lower to middle 60s across most locations. A cold front extends SW into the Red River Valley. Temps are in the lower to mid 50s north of the front and 60s are found to the south. A few warm air advection showers are popping up over eastern Arkansas though the significant rain at this hour is well north of the warm front across the Ohio Valley. The cold front will drop south across the area late this afternoon into this evening. The cold front will stall near the southern part of the forecast area resulting in a mostly rain free day.
A cold front will spread rain from north to south across much of the region through Saturday morning.
Cold front pushing into northwest Arkansas/southeast Oklahoma late this morning, currently located near a Bentonville/MKO/Stuart line.
A closed low over northwest Iowa will move into northern Illinois by late this afternoon. Cooler air behind the departing low will bring cooler temperatures to western Nebraska today. Highs remain near or slightly cooler than previous forecast, from near 40 in the northeast, to near 60 in the far southwest. Given that the moisture will be limited to below 800mb, and temperature profiles from 2C to -4C, any weak lift may result in drizzle or freezing drizzle.
Gusty east to northeast winds are anticipated today, as the pressure gradient strengthens between the Hudson Bay high and low pressure tracking through the Upper Midwest. Minor CAA will result in temperatures a couple degrees cooler than yesterday.
In the upper levels, slight ridging will be over the Southeast today. At the surface, weak high pressure is just off the Atlantic Coast of Florida. A low will be over Missouri today with a cold front extending through Texas.
Otherwise, shower activity remains possible today with an area of low pressure moves along the Pacific coastline. An upper level trough sitting off the Pacific Coast will begin its slow swing into the region today, bringing still more precipitation to the region this weekend. Today's focus of precipitation will fall across the west central Idaho mountains and along the Nevada border; however, as the trough axis moves across the region Sunday, most areas will see a flake or two. With a cold pool aloft and an unstable environment associated with the upper level trough axis, a slight chance for afternoon thunderstorms Sunday cannot be ruled out and has been added to the forecast. Northwest flow will follow the trough as it exits early in the week. The best chance for precipitation comes late Tue/Wed as a weak trough passes north of the area.
Surface reflection from the trough is shifting east across Kansas, following the baroclinic zone stretching from east central Kansas into south central Missouri. Unfortunately, our section of Kansas and Missouri will be on the cool side of the low as it tracks east today, keeping highs limited to the 40s and 50s this afternoon as the shower and thunderstorm activity shifts east. By Sunday, a large east Pacific trough will have moved onshore, where it is expected to deepen and slow as it makes its way across the mountainous west.
An upper trough will be over the western U. An upper low within this trough, currently off the Oregon coast, will weaken and move to the California/Oregon/Nevada border area by daybreak Sunday. These showers will be mainly over the higher terrain, and most of these showers will produce snow (possibly mixed with small hail). The medium to long range models are in good agreement in building an upper high pressure system off the northern California coast with a northwest flow ahead of it over the forecast area.
A cold front extends SW into the Red River Valley. Temps are in the lower to mid 50s north of the front and 60s are found to the south. A few warm air advection showers are popping up over eastern Arkansas though the significant rain at this hour is well north of the warm front across the Ohio Valley. The cold front will drop south across the area late this afternoon into this evening. The cold front will stall near the southern part of the forecast area resulting in a mostly rain free day.
/issued 411 AM CDT Sat Mar 24 2018/ After two consecutive days of record-breaking temperatures, we should finally see a bit of relief as a weak cold front pushes in from the northeast through the day.
Precip chances will remain absent across western Kansas today into tonight as weak upper level ridging moves eastward out of the Colorado Rockies into the Central Plains during the period. Regardless of a slowly intensifying westerly flow aloft, much drier air in the lower/mid levels and a lack of instability will keep precip chances out of the region through the first half of the weekend. Much cooler air filtering into western Kansas today will result in more seasonal high temperatures this afternoon. Highs in the 60s(F) are expected further south and west with the lower 70s(F) still possible near and along the Oklahoma border in southwest Kansas. As the southwest flow aloft begins to intensify somewhat, short range models show an east-southeasterly upslope flow developing across the high plains as high pressure shifts eastward across the Great Lakes.
General theme for the day will continue to focus on this sharp gradient, as temperatures hover near or just above freezing along the I-74 corridor. Forecast soundings across the northern CWA show a rather prominent warm nose between 5,000 and 10,000 feet this morning, suggesting a period of sleet or maybe some freezing rain at times. Snow/liquid ratios across the north will only be around 8:1 initially, before increasing this afternoon as the low passes to our south.
1114 AM EDT Sat Mar 24 2018 High pressure will move off the Southeast Coast today with a warm frontal boundary developing south of the area. The boundary will be south of the area on Sunday with high pressure wedged into the forecast area from the north.
However, the pressure gradient between the low and a strong polar high over James Bay, Canada will support ely wind gusts of 30-35 mph today, and remaining gusty near Lake MI tnt.
A weak low pressure system will move southeastward into the TN Valley by this evening, stretching a west to east oriented cold front through the TN Valley tonight. A weak cold front is pushing through the area on Sunday as cold air damming sets up in the Carolinas.
Fog and freezing drizzle this morning, and a potential wintry mix tonight highlight the short term forecast. Freezing drizzle will continue across central North Dakota this morning with ice loss in the column and low level omega. Extended most of the Winter Weather Advisory through 16 UTC for a longer duration threat of freezing drizzle per 07 UTC RAP soundings. If the warmer edge of guidance verifies, which is possible given the strong surface wind field and cloud cover, freezing rain/drizzle potential will be limited. However, if the cooler 00 UTC guidance consensus verifies, there will be greater potential for freezing rain/drizzle. Drizzle or freezing drizzle is possible as the column saturates, with a wintry mix thereafter of rain,freezing rain, and snow.
1032 AM EDT Sat Mar 24 2018 Expansive high pressure centered over Hudson Bay will nose south across our region this weekend.
Cooler air will advect into the region, with highs several degrees cooler than yesterday.
/issued 500 AM CDT Sat Mar 24 2018/ A cold front will pass through Oklahoma this morning shifting winds to north. /issued 309 AM CDT Sat Mar 24 2018/ A weak cold front passing through Oklahoma this morning will bring a bit milder and drier air mass, at least for a day. During Sunday the upper pattern changes such that Oklahoma is open to several waves from the southwest originating from a large scale trough over the southwestern U.
Aside from a few pockets of dense freezing fog this morning, A lingering glancing shot of mixed precipitation is expected to move north through Blaine and Phillips county with little if any impact.
Snow extends east of the James valley at 3am, with Dual Pol supporting snow as the main P-type, though profiles do lose ice in the dendritic growth zone as the morning progresses from west to east, but with loss of forcing any additional freezing drizzle will be very light. Thankfully temperatures are hovering around freezing so despite stratus, late March sunshine should be good enough to get us into the mid 30s.
849 AM PDT Sat Mar 24 2018 A low pressure trough along the West Coast will maintain onshore flow and cool weather this weekend under a deep marine layer with areas of night and morning low clouds and patchy fog extending onto the coastal slopes.
1151 AM CDT Sat Mar 24 2018 Expired Winter Weather Advisory earlier and issued Special Weather Statement for patchy freezing drizzle in our far NW CWA. Forcing within saturation is likely localized, but patchy freezing drizzle still can't be ruled out based on past obs/reports. Travel impacts continue across the area as light snow lingers in the valley and with some freezing drizzle developing to the west. In the wake of the light snow freezing drizzle and or reduced visibilities down to around 3 miles is occuring across much of central and northeastern ND. Will continue winter weather advisory with travel impacts from slippery roads as road temps remains just below freezing across the region.
An upper low and associated trough moves onto the West Coast and east into the Great Basin on Sunday, allowing moisture and energy to advect into the region.
732 AM EDT Sat Mar 24 2018 High pressure will move off the Southeast Coast today with a warm frontal boundary developing south of the area. The boundary will be south of the area on Sunday with high pressure wedged into the forecast area from the north.
Morning Cape sounding shows considerable dry air in the low levels with some moistening aloft and hi res vis sat imagery does show some cirrus streaming overhead. A little better moistening is occurring over south FL and the Treasure coast where an onshore flow has developed around high pressure centered over north FL. High pressure ridge over north FL this morning will shift east onto the Atlc waters this afternoon with winds becoming south to southeast. Guidance is showing south winds increasing 15-20 knots over the offshore waters this evening and overnight as low pressure scoots toward the Carolina coast. Quite dry air remains in the low levels especially across northern sections and combined with warming temperatures near 80 this afternoon, will yield RH values of 25-30 percent for 4 to 6 hrs across much of the interior counties.
With track of trough and per model deformation and frontogenesis. Hudson Bay high pressure dominates the weather for Sunday and Sunday night with dry easterly flow and anomalously dry easterly in the low-levels.
Northwest flow continues in the upper levels as weak ridging persists over the Plains to our west. This stalls a cold front north of our area tonight, with weak lift south of the front potentially squeezing out a few showers north of Highway 84 during overnight hours.
The area of low pressure will slide to the southeast today taking the precipitation along with it. Temperatures will remain below normal for today with highs in the low 30s northeast to the upper 30s to near 40 south. Convergence and isentropic ascent will move into western Minnesota with an approaching warm front during the afternoon. Highs climb to near normal with readings in the low to middle 30s northeast to the middle 40s south and northwest. A longwave trough enters the PacNW over the weekend and slowly translates east across the country this week.
655 AM CDT Sat Mar 24 2018 Travel impacts continue across the area as light snow lingers in the valley and with some freezing drizzle developing to the west. In the wake of the light snow freezing drizzle and or reduced visibilities down to around 3 miles is occuring across much of central and northeastern ND. Will continue winter weather advisory with travel impacts from slippery roads as road temps remains just below freezing across the region.
An upper level trough will dig into the northwest U. over the weekend, with weak ridging/zonal flow over South Texas during the period. Highs will be in the low to mid 80s across the Coastal Bend and Victoria Crossroads, and in the upper 80s to lower 90s across the Brush Country and Rio Grande Plains.
Quiet Saturday is expected across the region, with low pressure passing by well to the south bringing just an increase in high cloud cover especially south of the I-69 corridor. Strong high pressure over Ontario will maintain a stout NE gradient through the period. Extensive surface ridging will remain in place across the area both today and Sunday as a large high pressure system builds expands into southern Quebec in the wake of aforementioned upper low pressure over the northeast CONUS (as it shift southeast over the western Atlantic ocean and become cutoff from the northern stream storm track).
1238 PM EDT Sat Mar 24 2018 A trough of low pressure will drop southwest through the region today and will push into southern New England overnight.
Could see a few very light showers develop in northeast NE late tonight west of Highway 81, 09-12z, but it could be a mix of freezing rain or snow, but amounts would be quite light and generally of low concern that it would impact travel. Any rain that occurs early Sunday morning could be in the form of freezing rain or drizzle for an hour or two, but temperatures quickly warm above freezing, thus again no real concerns for any icing developing. Due to the inverted trough setting up, temps will vary widely across the forecast area, from the mid 40s on the north side, to the lower 60s along the KS/NE border.
As far as highs, temps should be a few degrees cooler across nern CO with readings in the 65 to 70 degree range.
For today, high rain chances will be in place over our northern counties within a warm frontal zone, with lower chances in the south. Also, the best chances for rain, along with isolated thunderstorms, will come in the afternoon across the area with the approach of a weakening low pressure system. Highs today will reach the low to mid 60s, except upper 50s Plateau.
Upper level trough will prevail across California this weekend with onshore flow near the surface.
936 AM EDT Sat Mar 24 2018 A trough of low pressure will drop southwest through the region today and will push into southern New England overnight.
Forecast area will remain on the leading edge of a highly amplified ridge anchored over the western U. Amplified upper ridge centered west of the forecast area will continue to dominate the weather over the area keeping temperatures above average and dry conditions in place. Downstream northerly flow occasionally pushes a clipper system diving into the plains close enough to drag a bit of cooler air into eastern zones.
Have removed any mention for additional precipitation for the day with the best forcing in association with the upper level trough expected to remain to our south and east through the remainder of the day. With the passage of the trough, we should continue seeing the cloud cover move south and east through our region as well with our southeast parishes obviously the last to clear.
An approaching cold front will bring bands of showers and a few thunderstorms, mainly after 00Z for the northern terminals and a few hours later for the southern ones.
Large upper trof over the region moves south of the area this afternoon as another upper trof and associated sfc cdfnt approaches the area. Widespread clouds are expected to move into the area ahead of this trof. With mid and high clouds, do not anticipate precip until late tonight as the main trof digs into the area with lower clouds. Have therefore still trended twd the warmer guidance for today. With the cdfnt pushing thru the area tonight, have trended cooler across nrn half of the CWA, but kept twd the warmer guidance elsewhere with front arriving shortly before sunrise. This is thanks to a blocking event over the wrn U. As for temps, have trended warmer for Sun and Mon with good agreement of SW flow and strong WAA across the region.
216 PM MST Fri Dec 8 2017 Amplified ridge-trough pattern remains in place across the CONUS, with north-northwest flow over our CWA. the region will see amplified H5/H7 ridging over the western portion of the country. w/ a cutoff upper low/trough combo over the east. but carry the dynamics north of the area before getting caught in the circulation of the trough/low to the east.
Snow showers are likely with a reinforcing cold front Saturday night. High pressure will result in dry but cool conditions overnight with cloud coverage associated with a system tracking up the coast. There is an outside chance of a few light snow showers developing early in the AM over the higher terrain of Garrett/Tucker/Preston counties associated with low pressure moving up the coast.
1024 mb high pressure over the mid MS and Ohio river valleys while a cold front was over central parts of WI/IA. The shorter range models are in good agreement with this feature reaching northwest Wisconsin by early evening, with a cold front swinging across central Illinois late in the night.
Scattered mid/high clouds will continue this afternoon in association with strong jet streak on backside of upper trough axis. Otherwise, gusty north winds will develop into the day Saturday behind cold front. The low pressure center is expected to remain over the Great Lakes region.
259 PM CST Fri Dec 8 2017 The CONUS is locked in a blocking pattern with UL ridging dominating over CA and into the Intermountain West, and troughing over the Great Lakes and into the East Coast. A gradient will setup across the forecast area tomorrow, with highs struggling to exceed the freezing mark in NE MO and low 40s dominating to the south and west of the KC area.
No change expected in the weather pattern as a strong ridge of high pressure remains over the region. This will allow inversions to keep low clouds and fog trapped in the lower elevations while sunny and warmer above the inversion. Freezing fog producing freezing drizzle will create some slick conditions for motorists and pedestrians.
Forecast confidence is high: The first widespread accumulating snowfall of the season is still expected for later this evening into tonight as low pressure quickly swings through the area. Stuck with amounts of 1-2 inches based on 12Z models, with the lower amounts in the southwest forecast area and higher amounts northeast.
244 PM CST Fri Dec 8 2017 The pattern aloft was highly amplified with an upper ridge along the western CONUS, northerly flow across the Central Plains and a trough to the east from Ontario south through the Great Lakes and Ohio valley region. A cold frontal boundary crossed our region this morning, and while cooling behind this boundary is not as cold as a day ago, the cooler air across eastern Nebraska and Kansas will hold temperatures down compared to locations to the west. Overall temperatures will be on the upswing as the cooler airmass exits farther to the east with the departing upper trough and warmer air advects onto the Central Plains in rising heights as the western upper ridge builds east.
Temperatures are in the low to mid 80s, and dew points are in the mid 70s. All eyes remain on the incoming cold front and powerful upper- level trough behind it, which has brought freezing temperatures and mixed precipitation to much of the northeast and deep south. Expect a drastic change in the weather behind the cold front tomorrow, as temperatures drop into the 60s Saturday afternoon, and within the 50 to 60 degree window Saturday night.
Patchy dense fog noted over the Lower Treasure Valley, especially west and just east of the Oregon border. The ridge and its inversion remain pinned to the area, and will continue for at least the next few days. Fog/stratus throughout the lower valleys. Fog/stratus will continue through the weekend in the lower valleys.