Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
A stout midlevel ridge axis remains across the southeast US with Tropical Storm Beta lifting northwestward on the western periphery of the ridge into portions of the central TX coast. With overnight lows progged to range from 53 to 56, and surface ridging still residing across eastern KS, fog appears likely once again, especially within the river valleys. Highs will range from the low 80s north of I-70 to the mid 70s across east-central KS.
258 PM EDT Mon Sep 21 2020 Central Kentucky and southern Indiana remain positioned beneath strong mid and upper level ridging. It's another very pleasant afternoon with temperatures in the lower 70s in most places, but slightly cooler in the Bluegrass. Tonight into tomorrow, the mid level ridge weakens with time downstream of a developing wave over the southern Plains. Highs on Tuesday will be in the low to mid 70s.
345 PM EDT Mon Sep 21 2020 Dry weather with gradually warming temperature can be expected this week under high pressure. Another good radiation night under dry high pressure will support another rapid temperature drop. With dewpoints in the lower 30s, a little more moisture is available for frost formation, so an advisory was issued for the extreme northern, and ridge zones of the Upr OH Valley Region. A gradually warming trend is likely as weak warm advection resumes on the west side of high pressure in the low- levels, with each subsequent day likely being a slightly warmer than the preceding day.
Weak but mild southwesterly flow prevails across the forecast area this afternoon, downstream from a weak upper trough situated along the Pacific Coast. As the upstream trough lifts inland and brushes by the forecast area Tuesday, better forcing should yield increased coverage for showers and thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon and evening.
140 PM CDT Mon Sep 21 2020 Another dry week ahead with a couple cold fronts at the end. The moisture feed associated with these bands of clouds will keep the southeastern TX Panhandle just a bit cooler today with highs in the upper 70s.
257 PM CDT Mon Sep 21 2020 Primarily dry and seasonable conditions are expected for this week as high pressure controls the weather.
Currently, upper level low continues to push east across southern Canada, with quasi-zonal flow aloft over the Northern Plains. Southerly return flow develops from west to east tonight as high pressure drifts to the east and low pressure develops off to our west.
High pressure centered over southern Quebec will slowly start to build south and westward through the next 24 hours. However, with return flow around the western flank of high pressure, lows should stay a few degrees above last night. While high pressure maintains control over the area, upper level flow becomes a bit more zonal going into Tuesday. Satellite imagery already shows smoke making its way from the High Plains toward Chicago, and this should sag eastward toward New York tomorrow. This will have the effect of reducing our daytime high temperature expectations a couple degrees, so the forecast was adjusted a bit cooler in expectation that we have smoke filtering the insolation.
Cliff PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: Upper ridging across the region will lead to a return to dry and warm conditions through the midweek. Ensemble guidance is suggestive of the ridge shifting downstream late in the week, allowing a more active weather pattern to potential set up as a new trough arrives from the west. Expected Flight Category: VFR Synopsis: High pressure will keep mostly clear skies and dry conditions over the region through the next several days.
Windy Conditions Today with Additional Beach Erosion and Minor Tight NE pressure gradient around high pressure to the north will produce windy conditions across all of EC FL.
The persistent cloud cover and effects of surface ridging will keep temperatures well below normal in the upper 60s to lower 70s over most areas this afternoon. Lows tonight mostly range from around 60 to the lower 60s over inland areas and in the mid to upper 60s near the immediate coast. The HIGH risk of rip currents continues along area beaches for the next several days.
High pressure building over the region will bring highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s and mostly clear skies today. STP Upper ridging dominates the weather pattern through Tuesday, bringing with in downsloping winds that will help to return warm and dry conditions. Temperatures expected to return to the upper 80s and dropping humidities dropping down to the low to mid teens by Tuesday. A weak dry cold front looks to shift downslope winds to the north late Tuesday, but winds with/behind it will be relatively light.
Lows tonight will drop into the 50s to near 60 and high temperatures tomorrow will be a little warmer than today with the highs topping out in the upper 70s to lower 80s. The key message in the extended part of the forecast is the changing weather conditions that are expected over the weekend as a cold front moves through.
147 PM EDT Mon Sep 21 2020 A large area of dry high pressure will cover much of the eastern United States tonight through Tuesday.
It will be a little cooler than normal through Tuesday, with greater coverage of coastal clouds during the nights and mornings.
215 PM EDT Mon Sep 21 2020 High pressure will continue to dominate the region, providing dry and cool conditions through the middle of the week.
253 PM MDT Mon Sep 21 2020 Upper ridging will prevail over the area into Tuesday, before a weak late day cold front moves through during the late afternoon and evening. The front may bring a few isolated light showers to the higher terrain and eastern areas during the evening.
BW Chattanooga Airport, TN 51 76 57 77 59 / 0 0 0 10 40 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 48 74 55 76 58 / 0 0 0 0 20 Oak Ridge, TN 48 75 55 77 57 / 0 0 0 10 20 Tri Cities Airport, TN 42 74 48 75 53 / 0 0 0 0 10.
1117 AM EDT Mon Sep 21 2020 High pressure will continue to dominate the region, providing dry and cool conditions through the middle of the week.
338 PM EDT Mon Sep 21 2020 Satellite imagery and surface observations reveal a sharp trough axis/low-level vorticity maximum from near the Middle/Upper Keys, east- southeast through southern Andros Island.
On the last full day of Summer, strong Canadian high pressure extending down much of the Eastern Seaboard will continue to result in Fall-like conditions. The center of the high pressure will begin to weak tonight as it builds southward, becoming centered over the central and southern Appalachians Tuesday morning. Upstairs, dry NWLY flow aloft will continue as a pair of mid-level anticyclones merge over the Deep South. Lows in the lower north to upper 40s south. High pressure along the east coast will slowly weaken, but remain locked over the Appalachians and TN/OH Valley region.
Northward moving, transitioning Hurricane Teddy will pinch the high and split it into two centers, with one of them centered over the Appalachians at the end of the period. Upper level moisture from Beta will get picked up by a weak upper low moving east from New Mexico to the Ozarks during the period.
304 PM CDT Mon Sep 21 2020 General scenario is for gradual warming through the week with a building ridge.
Continued ridging will allow for more dry air across the area. A little warmer and more moist column than yesterday allows for warmer overnight lows in the mid to upper 40s. Heights fall during the day Tuesday as vorticity from an upper low moves through southern Canada and initial vorticity from Beta rises into the Ohio Valley. Troughing across the county's midsection allows vorticity from Beta approach the area from the south.
As for North and Central GA, we are still under a developing ridge of high pressure and it continues to push dry air in across our area from the NE. This ridge will continue to build into the region for the next 24 hours before beginning to break down Wed.
Along with modest synoptic forcing provided by a compact upper jet core rounding the trough may touch of a few showers tonight through Tuesday morning. Finally, a veering deep layer wind profile on Tuesday should suppress our recent smoke plume south into the lower lakes.
1216 PM EDT Mon Sep 21 2020 Dry weather with gradually warming temperature can be expected this week under high pressure. High pressure across most of the Eastern CONUS should maintain dry weather today and tonight. High pressure is progged to move south across the Ohio and Tennessee valley region through mid week, maintaining dry weather and mostly clear skies.
1040 PM EDT Mon Sep 21 2020 Currently - A weak cold front is currently draped across the Florida Straits and continues to move southward. Showers and isolated thunderstorms persist across the Lower and Middle Keys.
Central Kentucky and southern Indiana remain positioned beneath strong mid and upper level ridging. It's another very pleasant afternoon with temperatures in the lower 70s in most places, but slightly cooler in the Bluegrass. Tonight into tomorrow, the mid level ridge weakens with time downstream of a developing wave over the southern Plains. Highs on Tuesday will be in the low to mid 70s.
614 PM CDT Mon Sep 21 2020 Primarily dry and seasonable conditions are expected for this week as high pressure controls the weather.
855 PM CDT Mon Sep 21 2020 Clear skies and light winds are expected through the night with lows in the lower 50s. The nearly zonal upper flow pattern currently over the region will give way to weak ridging late tonight into the day Tuesday before a more zonal flow returns Tuesday night. At the surface, weak high pressure will remain over the area tonight and Tuesday. A low pressure system and associated frontal boundary will then approach, with the low becoming centered over the South Dakota by late Tuesday night. Low temperatures tonight will be in the lower to mid 50s, with highs on Tuesday in the 80s.
On Tuesday, a short wave trough will help to produce showers and isolated thunderstorms. The upper level ridge over the southwestern United States will continue to be the dominant feature through the upcoming week.
Today was warmer than forecast with less smoke and better mixing than expected. That together with an incoming weak upper trough will lower temps on Tuesday.
High pressure centered over southern Quebec will build south and westward through the next 24 hours. While high pressure maintains control over the area, upper level flow becomes a bit more zonal going into Tuesday. Satellite imagery already shows smoke making its way from the High Plains toward Chicago, and this should sag eastward toward New York tomorrow. This will have the effect of reducing our daytime high temperature expectations a couple degrees, so the forecast was adjusted a bit cooler in expectation that we have smoke filtering the insolation.
Low temperatures should generally range from 40-45 in valleys and in the mid to upper 40s over the ridges and Bluegrass. Northward moving, transitioning Hurricane Teddy will pinch the high and split it into two centers, with one of them centered over the Appalachians at the end of the period. Upper level moisture from Beta will get picked up by a weak upper low moving east from New Mexico to the Ozarks during the period.
The Memphis metro will lie between these two regimes, with overnight lows working out similar to last night, perhaps a degree warmer. Geopotential heights at 500 mb were at 592 dam over middle TN this morning, indicative of a seasonally strong ridge (500 mb heights > 90th percentile). This ridge will weaken over the next 24 hours, allowing TS Beta to eventually lift northeast toward MS later this week. This trend will continue on Tuesday as warm, moist air lifts poleward over the cooler surface air mass. The cloud cover and light rain will depress max temperatures with highs generally in the lower 70s.
High pressure continues to dominate across the Southern Appalchians this evening. CDG Chattanooga Airport, TN 51 75 58 76 60 / 0 0 10 10 30 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 49 74 55 76 59 / 0 0 0 10 20 Oak Ridge, TN 49 74 55 77 59 / 0 0 0 10 20 Tri Cities Airport, TN 42 73 50 76 54 / 0 0 0 0 10.
/Issued 140 PM CDT Mon Sep 21 2020/ Another dry week ahead with a couple cold fronts at the end. The moisture feed associated with these bands of clouds will keep the southeastern TX Panhandle just a bit cooler today with highs in the upper 70s.
629 PM CDT Mon Sep 21 2020 A weak cold front is entering from the west this afternoon.
732 PM EDT Mon Sep 21 2020 Canadian high pressure will slowly weaken the next few days and winds will lessen. The center of high pressure will begin to draw nearer on Tuesday allowing the winds to ease.
631 PM CDT Mon Sep 21 2020 General scenario is for gradual warming through the week with a building ridge.
The nearly zonal upper flow pattern currently over the region will give way to weak ridging late tonight into the day Tuesday before a more zonal flow returns Tuesday night. At the surface, weak high pressure will remain over the area tonight and Tuesday. A low pressure system and associated frontal boundary will then approach, with the low becoming centered over the South Dakota by late Tuesday night. Low temperatures tonight will be in the lower to mid 50s, with highs on Tuesday in the 80s.
Reimer Upper ridging will prevail over the area into Tuesday, before a weak late day cold front moves through during the late afternoon and evening. The front may bring a few isolated light showers to the higher terrain and eastern areas during the evening.
559 PM EDT Mon Sep 21 2020 Canadian high pressure will slowly weaken the next few days and winds will lessen. The center of high pressure will begin to draw nearer on Tuesday allowing the winds to ease.
652 PM EDT Mon Sep 21 2020 High pressure maintains dry weather and plenty of sunshine for the first half of the week.
There is enough midlevel moisture to support the development of mainly isolated showers and thunderstorms across the higher terrain as well. However, the lower levels are still fairly dry with humidities in the teens, so it's unlikely that we'll see accumulations more than a few hundredths of an inch in the valleys, though up to a few tenths are possible in the mountains. Climate stats out of the way, the warm temperatures will be caused by mainly zonal flow aloft with a strengthening ridge developing across the western CONUS into this weekend.
Temperatures will remain mild for early fall, with lows tonight in the lower 50s, and highs for the first day of autumn in the lower 70s along the lakeshore, and in the mid to upper 70s everywhere else.
Any showers or storms that redevelop on Tuesday will once again initiate off of the high terrain of northern and western New Mexico, producing little rainfall but rather gusty downburst winds.
535 PM MDT Mon Sep 21 2020 The minor increase in PWATs and midlevel instability worked its magic this afternoon as satellite and radar shows plenty of convection over the higher terrain of the CWA. Like today, most showers and storms will fire over the higher terrain though coverage should be a bit more widespread than seen today and a bit more organized.
326 PM MDT Mon Sep 21 2020 The minor increase in PWATs and midlevel instability worked its magic this afternoon as satellite and radar shows plenty of convection over the higher terrain of the CWA. Like today, most showers and storms will fire over the higher terrain though coverage should be a bit more widespread than seen today and a bit more organized.
853 PM EDT Mon Sep 21 2020 Forecast largely on track and another quiet dry and abnormally cool night on tap under strong ridging. Morning lows near ten deg below climo with most areas in the low 50s. As for North and Central GA, we are still under a developing ridge of high pressure and it continues to push dry air in across our area from the NE. This ridge will continue to build into the region for the next 24 hours before beginning to break down Wed.
Temperatures across most of the area have already dropped to below 60 degrees and will continue to drop into the lower 50s. The persistent high pressure aloft will begin to break down and will slowly drift southeast, and remnants from Tropical Storm Beta will begin to move north from the Texas Gulf Coast toward the Mississippi River.
942 PM CDT Mon Sep 21 2020 A weak cold front is entering from the west this afternoon.
High pressure continues to dominate across the Southern Appalachians this evening. CDG Chattanooga Airport, TN 51 75 58 76 60 / 0 0 10 10 30 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 49 74 55 76 59 / 0 0 0 10 20 Oak Ridge, TN 49 74 55 77 59 / 0 0 0 10 20 Tri Cities Airport, TN 42 73 50 76 54 / 0 0 0 0 10.
High pressure centered over southern Quebec will build south and westward through the next 24 hours. Do not expect temps to fall as much as they did last night as the airmass is slightly warmer and more moist than this time yesterday. While high pressure maintains control over the area, upper level flow becomes a bit more zonal going into Tuesday. Satellite imagery already shows smoke making its way from the High Plains across the central Great Lakes, and this should sag eastward toward New York tomorrow. This will have the effect of reducing our daytime high temperature expectations a couple degrees, so the forecast was adjusted a bit cooler in expectation that we have smoke filtering the insolation.
With continued tropical moisture feed/overrunning on the northern periphery of the baroclinic zone/warm front, expect scattered rain chances to persist into the evening hours. With broad southwesterly flow aloft, widespread clouds/showers will keep above normal lows in the low-mid 60s areawide. Mid-level ridge axis will slowly build further south into the Gulf of Mexico, which will coincide with Beta making landfall along the Texas Coastline. A closed low will also be prevalent near the Ozarks. Persistence will be the key as the warm front & baroclinic zone will only lift slight to the northeast near the Texas/Louisiana border. Below normal high temperatures are expected generally in the low-mid 70s & leaned towards cooler consensus of RAW guidance. This comes as an upper trough will linger across the region through the weekend.
730 PM CDT Mon Sep 21 2020 Primarily dry and seasonable conditions are expected for this week as high pressure controls the weather.
High pressure currently over Maryland will continue to build to the south overnight.
723 PM EDT Mon Sep 21 2020 High pressure will continue to dominate the region, providing dry and cool conditions through the middle of the week.
758 PM EDT Mon Sep 21 2020 Dry weather with gradually warming temperature can be expected this week under high pressure. Another good radiation night under dry high pressure will support a rapid temperature drop. With dewpoints in the lower 30s, a little more moisture is available for frost formation, so an advisory was issued for the extreme northern, and ridge zones of the Upr OH Valley Region. A gradually warming trend is likely as weak warm advection resumes on the west side of high pressure in the low- levels, with each subsequent day likely being a slightly warmer than the preceding day.
Tomorrow Some suppression of the mid/upper-level ridge is expected tomorrow with a generally similar pattern in place.
Water vapor imagery showing upper level trough and short wave approaching the coast. This should keep temperatures a little warmer than past few nights. Stronger trough and front with 130kt jet will then move into the forecast area late Wed.
VFR conditions through the taf period as large area of high pressure continues to dominate the across the region. An elevated front will provide some mid/high clouds around 15kft Tuesday as the high keeps the lower levels clear.
High pressure centered over southern Quebec will build south and westward through the next 24 hours. Do not expect temps to fall as much as they did last night as the airmass is slightly warmer and more moist in most locations than this time yesterday. While high pressure maintains control over the area, upper level flow becomes a bit more zonal going into Tuesday. Satellite imagery already shows smoke making its way from the High Plains across the central Great Lakes, and this should sag eastward toward New York tomorrow. This will have the effect of reducing our daytime high temperature expectations a couple degrees, so the forecast was adjusted a bit cooler in expectation that we have smoke filtering the insolation.
Along the coast, coastal flooding will return tonight with the high tide and strong surf reaching the coast.
With H5 high pressure centered over the Tennessee Valley, and continued advection of a drier airmass, a very pleasant night is in store for us with clear skies, calming winds, and comfortable temperatures that will fall into the 60s shortly after sunset. Will need to enjoy this first taste of fall while it lasts, as a warmer and more humid airmass will soon be on its way. The persistent high pressure aloft will begin to break down and will slowly drift southeast, and remnants from Tropical Storm Beta will begin to move north from the Texas Gulf Coast toward the Mississippi River.
1007 PM EDT Mon Sep 21 2020 High pressure maintains dry weather and plenty of sunshine for the first half of the week.
The strong upper ridge in place this morning will gradually weaken and shift south. A plume of deep layer moisture extending northward across the central gulf into the lower Mississippi River Valley will edge slowly eastward and bring increasing cloudiness and possible patchy mostly light rain to our far western zones today and tonight. Otherwise, expect dry weather with slightly warmer temperatures. Highs today will range from the mid 70s north to the lower 80s south. Lows from the lower 60s north to near 70 near the Florida coast.
South to southeasterly low level flow will promote convection off the higher terrain of the Raton Mesa and drift to the southeast. Cooler temperatures are still expected in the Rolling Plains due to the higher near surface moisture.
102 AM EDT Tue Sep 22 2020 Canadian high pressure will slowly weaken the next few days and winds will lessen. The center of high pressure will begin to draw nearer on Tuesday allowing the winds to ease.
1245 AM CDT Tue Sep 22 2020 A weak cold front is entering from the west this afternoon.
342 AM EDT Tue Sep 22 2020 High pressure will maintain fair weather with a gradual warming trend this week. The area will be under high pressure maintaining fair weather through tonight.
403 AM EDT Tue Sep 22 2020 High pressure over New England will shift to the southwest reaching the Ohio River Valley by this evening.
140 AM EDT Tue Sep 22 2020 Forecast largely on track and another quiet dry and abnormally cool night on tap under strong ridging. Morning lows near ten deg below climo with most areas in the low 50s. As for North and Central GA, we are still under a developing ridge of high pressure and it continues to push dry air in across our area from the NE. This ridge will continue to build into the region for the next 24 hours before beginning to break down Wed.
High pressure continues to dominate across the Southern Appalachians this evening. Chattanooga Airport, TN 75 58 76 60 72 / 0 10 10 30 70 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 74 55 76 59 74 / 0 0 10 20 50 Oak Ridge, TN 74 55 77 59 74 / 0 0 10 20 50 Tri Cities Airport, TN 73 50 76 54 76 / 0 0 0 10 30.
247 AM EDT Tue Sep 22 2020 With high pressure in control at the surface today and tonight, the only weather of note will be development of an upper level low over the Ozarks tonight.
129 AM MDT Tue Sep 22 2020 Mean NE Pac upper trough will continue to support 2-3 period impulses into the region. There will be a slight chance for a shower of thunderstorm in the NW third this evening and overnight as the upper trough and associated LL theta-e ridge traverse the region.
126 AM EDT Tue Sep 22 2020 High pressure over New England will shift to the southwest reaching the Ohio River Valley by this evening.
/Today through Monday/ The main weather themes for the forecast cycle this morning include above normal temperatures through the work week, a minor window for precip this weekend, and cooler weather to end the period and beyond.