Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
649 AM EDT Mon May 24 2021 [Through 12Z Tuesday] Light winds will prevail today under high pressure, except for a moderate seabreeze working inland from the coast this afternoon. The axis of strong and persistent 500-mb ridge shifts east over our area today, thus placing us in a hot/dry "bubble". These values are above seasonal averages, but at least the low humidities will keep heat indices in check. Low temperatures are forecast to be mostly in the low/mid 60s, though some normally cool spots (e.
DISCUSSIONâ¦ The deep upper level low that brought the cooler air into the region continues to exit to the northeast, now entering southern Canada.
620 AM CDT Mon May 24 2021 Upper low over Montana will continue to shift off into Canada today, and then track more east across southern Canada on Tuesday. On Tuesday a surge of cooler air is expected by afternoon, and this surge in addition to steep lapse rates through the boundary layer will again allow for gusty winds, perhaps close to advisory criteria in the afternoon/early evening. Tuesday will be cooler, but still mild as a cooler airmass advects south into the region.
1028 AM EDT Mon May 24 2021 Anomalously warm high pressure continues to dominate the pattern as temperatures will reach the mid-90s this week.
Not only has it been near record dry conditions from a precipitable water perspective, but it has actually been a few degrees cooler than normal for this time of year. A few showers can be seen in the outer Florida Straits southwest of the lower Keys currently, but otherwise mostly clear skies prevail over the area.
Current temps are mostly in the lower 60s with a few pockets of 50s across the east half. Upper ridge axis this afternoon will again be in close proximity. High temps will again top out in the lower 90s for some areas west of the Plateau.
Upper level high pressure remains over the area with light winds and mostly clear skies. Temps have fallen into the lower to mid 60s most places with some patchy fog across parts of west TN and NE MS again this AM. High pressure aloft will remain in control while beginning to weaken.
The associated cold front is draped south through SD and NE, and the storms that developed along it last night have been weakening as they move into a less favorable environment for maintenance further east. As the upper ridge to our east starts to break down, a very subtle wave appears to move within the flow and bring isolated showers and perhaps a rumble of thunder or two. CAMs aren't picking up on this as much as the last few days, so have PoPs on the lower side to account for the more isolated nature of these showers.
A similar story as yesterday continues this morning with tropical moisture being pumped into the region between a mid level ridge to the east and a trough to the west. Coverage should diminish this evening, although some continued chance for additional showers and isolated thunderstorms will remain overnight and into Tuesday due to the proximity of the upper low lifting across Texas.
The ridge is situated just to the east of the peninsula, favoring a light easterly flow. With high pressure just off the east coast and VFR skies, today's forecast is about winds. The gradient is light since the ridge axis center is so close. Benign boating conditions exist with high pressure in control.
706 AM EDT Mon May 24 2021 Strong high pressure will build across the region today into tonight with pleasantly fair and dry weather.
Short term ensembles in good agreement with progressive pattern in place, as upper lows continue to track across the Pacific Northwest with jet stream situated near the Oregon/California boarder.
With light southeasterly winds we will continue to mix out in the afternoon keeping the humidity values on the lower side despite the heat.
456 AM MDT Mon May 24 2021 08z surface analysis had low pressure over northwest ND with trough into central WY. Water vapour depicted upper low over southern AB with 110kt jet streak across the western Dakotas.
605 AM EDT Mon May 24 2021 Strong high pressure will build across the region today into tonight with pleasantly fair and dry weather.
1017 AM EDT Mon May 24 2021 Strong high pressure will build across the region today into tonight with pleasantly fair and dry weather.
Upper level ridging will begin to weaken and shift eastward today as a 500mb trough approaches the West Coast. Drier conditions are expected to return on Tuesday as the upper low pushes eastward and a ridge builds offshore.
345 AM PDT Mon May 24 2021 Much warmer today for inland areas today with no more than patchy low clouds near the coast early this morning.
742 AM EDT Mon May 24 2021 High pressure will prevail across area Today, with a trough of low pressure to the north. High Pressure ridge at the surface sets up south and east of the region, while high pressure ridge aloft sets up over the SE U. Under Sunny skies expect highs to reach the lower/middle 90s inland, while an East Coast sea breeze this afternoon keeps the beaches/I-95 corridor in the middle/upper 80s. Mostly clear skies tonight along with light winds and dry airmass will allow for lows to fall into the lower to middle 60s with limited chances for fog due to the dry airmass.
As the upper level low pressure system that has caused all the recent rain moves out of the region today, another low pressure system is moving onshore in the Pacific Northwest.
Today Through Tuesday Night Rather quiet wx conds noted acrs the Natural State early this mrng, thanks to sfc/upper lvl high pressure centered to the east. As a result, light E/SE winds were observed with predawn temps generally in the lower and mid 60s. The aforementioned upr lvl ridge wl sloly weaken and shift back to the E in the coming days, allowing SW flow aloft to return to the Mid-South. Meanwhile, Low lvl moisture wl begin to advect back into the region, along the Wrn periphery of the upper high.
650 AM EDT Mon May 24 2021 A cold front drops into the area from the north today with showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening.
528 AM CDT Mon May 24 2021 Wvapor imagery shows a s/wv over southeast TX early this morning with prominent ridging from the Gulf Coast to the Great Lakes.
638 AM CDT Mon May 24 2021 (Today and tonight) The surface and upper level pattern will be in transition today, with southeasterly low level flow gradually becoming more southerly and weak upper ridging becoming southwesterly.
A mostly dry day is expected across the region with temperatures in the low to mid 80s. By tonight, a shift in the upper level pattern will begin to take place as a ridge across the southeast US will begin to weaken and shift further east. As for temperatures, expect a muggy week with temperatures in the low 80s (highs could be impacted by precipitation and cloud coverage) and humid conditions.
There are three separate upper level vorts within a broad trough axis across the southwest US the models show best at H3. Models suggest the better upper diffluence associated with the final wave may be more situated just south of the area which suggests the highest POPs and QPF will remain in the SRN CWA with even higher POPS just south of the area towards LUB.
100 PM CDT Mon May 24 2021 (Today and tonight) The surface and upper level pattern will be in transition today, with southeasterly low level flow gradually becoming more southerly and weak upper ridging becoming southwesterly.
Deep layer synoptic scale ridge axis from the TN Valley to the FL Peninsula to open up the period slips a bit more eastward going into Tuesday. Larger scale compressional sinking and warming of the local environment, provided by the ridge, maintains the rain-free pattern. Up along the I-65 corridor over the interior northeast zones, highs in the lower to mid 90s will be several degrees above normal.
201 PM EDT Mon May 24 2021 Strong high pressure begins to slide southeastward tonight, through fair and dry weather will continue.
Quiet weather across the region today as weak ridging sits over the region.
A weak, transient ridge is continuing to give way to a quickly approaching trough that is nearing the WA coast.
The axis of strong and persistent 500-mb ridge shifts east over our area today, thus placing us in a hot/dry "bubble". These values are above seasonal averages, but at least the low humidities will keep heat indices in check. Low temperatures are forecast to be mostly in the low/mid 60s, though some normally cool spots (e.
Temperatures are already around 80 in the southern RRV and may reach the mid 80s this afternoon for warmer locations in the south. An upper low continues to move out of northeastern Montana and into southern Manitoba this morning. Another warm day is in store for Tuesday ahead of a cold front that is expected to push through the area later in the afternoon and evening.
Scattered high clouds prevail this morning atop developing fair wx cu, all amidst the deep ridge overhead. LW Chattanooga Airport, TN 92 66 93 68 93 / 10 0 20 10 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 89 65 91 68 90 / 10 0 10 10 10 Oak Ridge, TN 90 64 91 66 90 / 10 0 10 10 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 88 61 89 65 88 / 10 0 10 10 20.
Ridging of high pressure aloft extends from the Caribbean over the Eastern Gulf states and will continue to suppress convection across our area. The ridge axis overhead has resulted in calm to light and variable winds. Temps in the NE a few degrees higher and into the lower 90s/near 90 away from the bulk of the cu in the central and west.
Rain chances increase slightly given peak heating convection on Tuesday as the ridge weakens over the area. Further west, the deep upper trough has lifted as the closed low advects northeast into Canada. Moving into through Tuesday, the northern stream Canadian upper low will advect east prompting subsequent height falls across much of the central/eastern CONUS as the southeast H5 ridge sets up atop the SC/GA/FL coastal regions, with the surface anticyclone beneath fostering return sly flow into the TN Valley. This combined with ample daytime heating will prompt widespread cu development with guidance favoring CI along the Cumberland Plateau and the higher terrain of the East TN and southwest VA/NC mountains.
Weak high pressure over the region has allowed for lighter winds along with an increase in afternoon high temperatures.
Meanwhile, high pressure will build briefly over the area tonight.
227 PM MDT Mon May 24 2021 Any mositure across southeastern Wyoming and the western Nebraska Panhandle will diminish as a high pressure system brings dry air and continues to dominate our region through Tuesday evening. The high pressure system will continue to bring clear skies Tuesday afternoon and high temperatures will reach the.
Otherwise the forecast remains on track with another few days of precipitation tracking through the area and a slightly warmer and drier end of the week.
Upper low over Montana will continue to shift off into Canada today, and then track more east across southern Canada on Tuesday. On Tuesday a surge of cooler air is expected by afternoon, and this surge in addition to steep lapse rates through the boundary layer will again allow for gusty winds, perhaps close to advisory criteria in the afternoon/early evening. Tuesday will be cooler, but still mild as a cooler airmass advects south into the region.
Warm front/boundary is expected to slowly lift northward during the day today. Next concern is surface cold front tracking across the forecast area late this afternoon and into tonight. Hi- resolution models indicate convection to develop along the surface cold front and warm front. The upper level low currently over Montana is expected to moving across southern Canada while slowly weakening. Otherwise, the forcing for convective development will be focused along a cold front pushing into the area.
209 PM EDT Mon May 24 2021 High pressure continues to dominate the pattern over the CWA.
241 PM CDT Mon May 24 2021 Warm and humid southerly flow continues over the area today ahead of a trough of low pressure moving into the Northern Plains. Temperatures at 2pm ranged from the lower 70s across north central WI to the upper 70s/mid 80s elsewhere while dew points hovered in the mid-60s. Chances for showers and storms continue Tuesday as trough/surface cold front pushes toward the area.
Showers over higher terrain of southwest Idaho will taper off this morning ahead of more showers and isolated thunderstorms developing mainly over higher terrain this afternoon ahead of an approaching upper trough. Precipitation coverage will increase over southeast Oregon late this evening as the trough pushes into the region and increasing across the area through Tuesday.
For Tuesday, flow will turn more zonal with the closed low over Canada lifting to the northeast. Temperatures will continue their upward climb with highs in the mid to upper 70s for the plains and 60s over the high country. Upper ridging looks to prevail on Tuesday night.
113 PM EDT Mon May 24 2021 Strong high pressure will build across the region today into tonight with pleasantly fair and dry weather.
129 PM EDT Mon May 24 2021 High pressure will linger across the Southeast through the middle of the week, then shift further to the south. Another hot and rain-free day is underway as ridging aloft becomes centered over the Southeastern states. Aloft, the strong ridge will remain positioned over the Southeast United States.
1216 PM CDT Mon May 24 2021 Quiet conditions across most of the area greet us this morning as we remain between the influence of a well upstream midlevel trough and a mid level ridge to the southeast. With the best flow aloft remaining well west of the area, closer to the midlevel trough there isn't much in the way of mid level support for ascent. By mid day the low level flow should weaken a bit, which will bring down the chance of rain.
Satellite indicates mostly thin cirrus turrets circulating within the upper ridge position over the lower MS and TN valley. With dew points in the lower to middle 60s this morning, modified soundings suggest scattered cumulus development this afternoon. High temperatures in the lower 90s look right on target.
/Today through Tuesday/ An amplified upper ridge over the Tennessee and Lower Ohio River Valleys will begin to move eastward today. This dry layer in the lowest levels will likely cause most of the precip to evaporate before reaching the surface. As ridging aloft and at the surface moves a bit farther east, the boundary layer should moisten quite rapidly after sunrise as deep layer southerly flow strengthens and streams more moisture into the region.
Warm temperatures continue as high pressure still influences the forecast across the southeast.
119 PM CDT Mon May 24 2021 An upper high was centered over GA/SC. As the upper high shifts a bit further east tonight, it allows the vorticity wave now straggling the ridge along the AL/GA state line to amplify just a bit and start lifting northeast. Lows will be in the lower 60s and patchy late night fog may be possible again, mainly in northwest AL. As the high continues to shift east/southeast on Tuesday, modest south-southwest low to mid level flow will develop over the area. This along with the higher terrain and a weaker cap may be just enough to generate isolated showers on Tuesday afternoon in our eastern counties. With little appreciable airmass change day to day, will forecast highs in the lower 90s once again.
Issued by National Weather Service Cleveland OH 355 PM EDT Mon May 24 2021 Latest surface analysis showed a slow moving warm front from southern Lake Michigan to west central Ohio to southwest Pennsylvania and a broad 1022mb high over Tennessee/Ohio Valleys. Upper air analysis showed a ridge axis from northeast Gulf of Mexico to the Great Lakes region. Upper level low over Montana is expected to slowly push east through Tuesday. This feature will slowly displace ridge axis to the east coast Tuesday night. Upper level ridge axis is expected to move west to east across the forecast Tuesday and Tuesday night.
325 PM EDT Mon May 24 2021 Strong high pressure begins to slide southeastward tonight, through fair and dry weather will continue.
202 PM CDT Mon May 24 2021 Very warm wx continues with a stacked ridge in place. It will remain quite warm Tuesday, but the ridge will begin to weaken for our area.
Upper level high pressure was over the Tennessee Valley early this morning, with ridging extending northward. Meanwhile, troughing was offshore of New England and over the western CONUS. Despite the upper high and ridging over the area, there is still a small potential for some precip today. The eastern trough has allowed a cold front to sag southwestward into OH and WV. After today, the western trough will play a larger role for our weather. An upper low embedded in the trough (currently along the MT/Canada border) will drift eastward and get picked up by another trough further north. It will suppress our upper level ridging further southeast. The breakdown of the upper high, slight cooling aloft, and a modest increase in flow aloft will allow for a slight chance of showers/thunderstorms during peak heating for much of the area on Tuesday.
1211 PM CDT Mon May 24 2021 Updated aviation section for 18z TAFS Wvapor imagery shows a s/wv over southeast TX early this morning with prominent ridging from the Gulf Coast to the Great Lakes.
High pressure and upper ridging were keeping the area dry. Dry conditions will continue tonight with the high and and upper ridge still in control. On Tuesday, the ridge breaks down with an upper trough approaching from the west. Better instability builds across the area on Tuesday, and without the ridge over the area, cannot rule out an isolated shower or thunderstorm during the afternoon hours. The upper trough along with a surface front will get near the forecast area by later Tuesday night. 850mb winds increase to 30-40kt, and the upper trough will bring some support.
353 PM EDT Mon May 24 2021 High pressure will remain across the Southeast through the mid-week, then shift further to the south. A broad area of low pressure will develop over the region late this week, followed by a cold front this weekend. Forecast remains warm for the rest of this afternoon as ridging aloft becomes centered over the Southeastern states. Tonight: A backdoor cold front will approach the northern counties overnight tonight, bringing the chance of a stray sprinkle.
(This evening through Tuesday) Influence of upper trough moving across north-central and northeast Texas will continue into this evening, mainly across southeast and eastern Oklahoma in form of continued rain activity.
During the overnight hours and into tomorrow, we'll see a slight decrease in mid-level geopotential heights over our region as our stubborn ridge of high pressure begins to slowly break down and shift eastward. The upper level ridge axis that has been providing the dry and warm weather will continue to break down at the beginning of the period. As this occurs, a mid-level trough axis is forecast to swing through the region along with a weak frontal boundary.
205 PM MDT Mon May 24 2021 Wind speeds have probably already peaked for today as strongest 700mb wind speeds gradually shift to the north with the upper low over Canada. A few showers may linger over our NE zones on Tuesday as we transition from cyclonic to anti-cyclonic flow, but 500mb heights will build in from the west for a warmer day with highs in the 60s and 70s. Some afternoon showers and thunder may develop over the mountains in our west during the afternoon and evening as the next upper trough to the west pushes into the inner Rockies.
Dry conditions tonight as high pressure at the surface and aloft keeps the showers and storms to our west. Tomorrow, the ridge begins to gradually break down and shift to our east. This short wave will dampen out as it moves into the ridge, but may aid in scattered shower and thunderstorm development Tuesday afternoon into the evening.
PM CDT Mon May 24 2021 Warm and humid southerly flow continues over the area today ahead of a trough of low pressure moving into the Northern Plains. Temperatures at 2pm ranged from the lower 70s across north central WI to the upper 70s/mid 80s elsewhere while dew points hovered in the mid-60s. Chances for showers and storms continue Tuesday as trough/surface cold front pushes toward the area.
The quiet weather will continue to stick around through the near term as an upper level ridge begins to break down. Dry mid-level air and mostly clear conditions overnight will allow one last night of near to slightly below temperatures with lows in the low to mid 60s. Warmer conditions expected Tuesday with high temperatures moving into the low 90s.
Synoptically, the area remains situated between an upper low centered over Saskatchewan and an upper ridge over the Tennessee Valley. An impressive reservoir of moisture has built up in the low levels east of the dryline thanks to several days of southeasterly surface flow and persistent moisture advection. West Texas Mesonet observations place surface dewpoints in the low to mid 60s across much of the region this afternoon. Skies have cleared along and west of I-27/US-87, and temperatures have already warmed into the low 80s.
Tonight and Tuesday A warm front was lifting northward across the area this afternoon. Temperatures warmed into the in the lower to middle 70s north and in the upper 70s to middle 80s. It will be warm and humid with highs in the lower to middle 80s. Tuesday Night Through Monday Precipitation will be coming to an end from west to east Tuesday evening as a cold front sweeps through the western Great Lakes region.
At the mid- and upper levels, high pressure will build in from the west, keeping light winds and dry conditions. For tonight, temps will drop to the lower 60s across the interior while at the coast, these will stay in the mid-upper 60s. Temps will be a few degrees higher than today, when along the coast these will reach the mid 80s while in the interior highs will reach the lower 90s.
The wind speeds will diminish Tuesday evening as high pressure settles in. Lows Tuesday night will be in the lower to mid 40s.
Generally, low temperatures by Tuesday morning will be around 2-4 degrees warmer than what we saw this morning. This will mean sub-freezing temperatures across portions of the high country so be sure to protect any sensitive vegetation.
1135 AM MDT Mon May 24 2021 08z surface analysis had low pressure over northwest ND with trough into central WY. Water vapour depicted upper low over southern AB with 110kt jet streak across the western Dakotas.
The Marginal risk in place from SPC still seems appropriate given the low end potential for a couple strong/severe storms although the risk appears lower than was anticipated.
1246 PM CDT Mon May 24 2021 A mostly dry day is expected across the region with temperatures in the low to mid 80s. By tonight, a shift in the upper level pattern will begin to take place as a ridge across the southeast US will begin to weaken and shift further east. As for temperatures, expect a muggy week with temperatures in the low 80s (highs could be impacted by precipitation and cloud coverage) and humid conditions.
Mid to late week a series of upper level troughs will cross the Central Plains as a west to southwest flow establishes itself across the western and central United States. With a surface boundary oscillating north and south across western Kansas during this time frame there will be ongoing chances for afternoon and overnight thunderstorms as each of these upper level troughs passes. Highs mid to late week will range from the low to mid 80s north of wherever this surface boundary will be located on that day to around 90 degrees south of this boundary.
Isolated to scattered shower activity in the deep moisture still sampled by the 12Z TOP sounding has been less the most recent days as the higher PW values nudge east, though recent hours have seen an uptick in coverage especially into central portions of Oklahoma.