Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Issued by National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 301 PM EST Tue Jan 26 2021 High pressure continues to ridge across the area from the Atlantic with warm and moist air in place ahead of the next cold front tonight. A cold front will then move through the area later Wednesday through Wednesday night, with a few showers possible mainly across the northern half of the area Wed afternoon/evening.
/Updated at 1055 AM CST Tue Jan 26 2021/ The cold front has cleared the area as of writing, noticable by the northwest wind and much lower dewpoints.
Yesterday's surface cold front remains stalled well offshore, with some lingering cloudiness still present across the barrier islands and immediate inland areas. As an upper trough traverses the Central Plains, the approach of a reinforcing cold front overnight will provide an additional surge of cooler air to SE TX as winds strengthen and shift northward. Daytime highs are unlikely to rise above 70, while overnight lows may approach freezing in the northern zones and will otherwise be in the mid-30s to lower 40s.
Identifiable on WV this afternoon, an open 500mb trough continues to push off the western High Plains this afternoon. With decent widespread forcing for ascent associated ahead of the trough, expect widespread light snow to develop from west to east overnight through early morning, Wednesday. With this in mind and a fairly progressive trough, expecting anywhere from an inch up to two inches from northeastern Kansas into central Missouri.
41 A cold front is expected to become stationary over the central GA area tonight.
312 PM CST Tue Jan 26 2021 Another pleasant day is on tap for the Mid-South this afternoon, with current temperatures in the lower 60s to our south and lower 50s to our north. Expect cooler and below normal Wednesday, with highs generally in the 40s and lows in the upper 20s.
512 PM CST Tue Jan 26 2021 Upper level trough moving across the Texas Panhandle and South Plains resulting in virga and some rain/snow showers early in the TAF period. Another weak cold front will back into the forecast area from the northeast this evening, likely stalling between KCDS and KPVW/KLBB. As the low approaches, it will provide some upper-level lift over the area. Along with the lift from the low, a cold front will drop through the area, providing some low lift. As temperatures drop below freezing, this precipitation will transition to light snow. With temperatures being well below freezing in this area, slick spots on the roadway may form.
5" in Davey, NE was the highest report we received. Our blanket of snow will keep us cold tonight, with lows dropping into the low teens and single digits by early Wednesday morning.
953 PM EST Tue Jan 26 2021 A weak area of low pressure will move across New York state overnight and then exit into southern New England on Wednesday. low pressure was centered just south of Rochester. There's still patchy freezing drizzle south and east of Rochester, which will change over to snow during the next couple hours.
Rain and snow return this weekend as the result of a low pressure system moving through the area. Weak ridging will continue dry conditions through the overnight hours although low level moisture will persist continuing cloud coverage. Upper forcing and adequate moisture on the backside of the low will bring in chances for snow with some snow mixing in at times.
Winds this evening will gradually trend from southeast to northerly as a cold front approaches from the north. As of now, the cold front can be see on the GOES-16 7. 34um imagery and is located across northern Terrell county in the lower Trans Pecos. A cold front will move through South Central Texas tonight from the northwest to the southeast. While these winds will bring cooler air, they will keep the boundary layer well mixed. Low temperatures will be about the same as Tuesday with some places in the Hill Country actually a little warmer.
Yesterday's system is currently spreading snow and ice across the Northeast CONUS, while the main longwave trough is moving eastward across the Four Corners region. This trough will approach the forecast area tonight. The antecedent air mass ahead of this system is quite cold, with CAA and widespread clouds keeping afternoon temperatures in the low to mid 20s today. As the longwave trough moves out onto the Plains this evening, a laterally translating band of snow will develop across Kansas. With shallow moisture remaining at the surface from the recent snow, areas of freezing fog will likely develop, either after clouds clear or through low stratus building down to the surface.
After 12Z MVFR cigs and gusty nw wind 20-25kts wl develop over the area from the nw as a strong cold front drops through the area. This trough will serve to kick both boundaries out of our region and aid in ushering in only a slightly cooler but definitely drier airmass. As for temperatures, the current mild conditions will give way to overnight lows in the low 40s over the northwest and in the mid 50s over the southeast CWA. Highs will range from the low 50s in the northwest to the upper 60s in the southeast.
Low temps are expected to fall to near or below freezing over most locations. This cold air will be invading as a mid level trof shifts east from the Plains toward the MS River Valley during the day Wednesday. In addition, with rather mild antecedent temps Tuesday in the north 40s to mid 50s southeast, and much of the light precip expected to occur during the daylight hours Wed with surface temps near or just above freezing, we are really not anticipating a big travel impact at this time. Thereafter, the aforementioned area of high pressure over the Midwest will build east into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley regions on Tuesday, keeping things dry, but quite chilly, with highs only in the 30s.
/issued 312 PM CST Tue Jan 26 2021/ Another pleasant day is on tap for the Mid-South this afternoon, with current temperatures in the lower 60s to our south and lower 50s to our north. Expect cooler and below normal Wednesday, with highs generally in the 40s and lows in the upper 20s.
Low pressure continues to skirt off to the northeast and Middle Tennessee sort of finds itself in a col with abundant sunshine and unseasonably warm temperatures once again. So we can expect much cooler weather tomorrow with mainly scattered showers developing. Some of these showers may mix with snow during cooler parts of the day in some areas, and there is a chance for some light accumulating snowfall along the Cumberland Plateau tomorrow evening, but most areas will experience only rain. So temperatures will turn sharply cooler by tomorrow night, and the remainder of the week looks to be quite chilly. Warmer temperatures this weekend will be accompanied by another cold front.
309 PM CST Tue Jan 26 2021 An upper level low crossing the Colorado Rockies this afternoon will move through KS tonight and spread snow into swrn Nebraska. The temperature forecast continues to lean on the cooler bias corrected short term model blend.
Upper low associated with the snow continues to reside over east central Colorado. Some wrap-around is possible as the low passes, but overall no changes to expected overnight snow(00z-12z Wednesday). Light snow will continue to lift out across the forecast area from the southwest to the northeast late this afternoon and evening as a low pressure system moves from southeast Colorado across western Kansas this evening. Snow will end from west to east after midnight as the low begins to move more quickly across Kansas as an open wave overnight tonight and across Missouri by mid day Wednesday.
Otherwise, surface Arctic high pressure centered in southern Canada was pushing the most bitter Arctic air into North Dakota today with less colder air into our cwa. The Arctic high pressure area in Canada will build southeast through Wednesday night. The models show a weak elongated upper level low pressure trough axis to our west and southwest this afternoon slowly lifting northeast and east across our region through Wednesday. Another short wave trough will bring another round of cloud cover to the region Wednesday night. Southeast winds will bring in some slightly warmer air for Wednesday with highs in the teens and 20s.
850 PM CST Tue Jan 26 2021 (Issued 850 PM CST Tue Jan 26 2021) Winds have relaxed this evening inland from Lake Michigan, as high pressure off to our northwest continues to nose into the region. Cannot rule out some freezing fog developing in spots as well. Some passing high clouds, especially after midnight should help keep any freezing fog either patchy or intermittent. Temps will plummet to around zero degrees by Thu AM, slightly warmer near the lake.
318 PM CST Tue Jan 26 2021 An upper level low crossing the Colorado Rockies this afternoon will move through KS tonight and spread snow into swrn Nebraska. The temperature forecast continues to lean on the cooler bias corrected short term model blend.
A stronger cold front will push through the area in the early morning hours ending the rain chances and coastal fog. Held off on issuing the low water adv for now with the offshore flow duration only expected to be a few hours before low tide. As a result moisture is lifting above the southern boundary "warm front"and pooling over southern Louisiana and southeast Texas including the coastal waters.
Light snow will continue to lift out across the forecast area from the southwest to the northeast late this afternoon and evening as a low pressure system moves from southeast Colorado across western Kansas this evening. Snow will end from west to east after midnight as the low begins to move more quickly across Kansas as an open wave overnight tonight and across Missouri by mid day Wednesday.
The upper low will move eastward across Kansas overnight. With the upper trough shifting to the east of the forecast area around midnight, synoptic scale subsidence to the west of the upper trough may be enough to bring an end to any flurries. Warmer air will begin to work into the northern plains on Wednesday as an upper ridge builds to the west.
An upper level low crossing the Colorado Rockies this afternoon will move through KS tonight and spread snow into swrn Nebraska. The temperature forecast continues to lean on the cooler bias corrected short term model blend.
548 PM CST Tue Jan 26 2021 Some brief upper level ridging will move across the region this evening. The subsidence from this and the area of low pressure in the low levels building in from the northwest will allow for at least some partial clearing across mainly the northern sections early tonight. The clouds will spread back in late tonight as another short wave trough moves by to the south of the area. In the wake of today's departing storm system, an area of high pressure is expected to build in over the region and help to clear out the clouds for Wednesday night. The upper level flow will turn to the southwest allowing a short wave trough to eject out of the West Texas region and advance northeast across the Mid- Mississippi River Valley.
Additional snowfall accumulations will be negligible as the low continues moving off to the east. Drier air advecting in from the west and a high pressure ridge building across the upper Mississippi Valley in the afternoon will bring a decrease in clouds by the afternoon, especially across central and east-central Wisconsin.
725 PM EST Tue Jan 26 2021 A cold front is expected to become stationary over the central GA area tonight.
901 PM EST Tue Jan 26 2021 A cold front will stall to the north of the area overnight. Overnight lows will be 15-25 degrees above normal in the low to mid 60s areawide.
/issued 520 PM CST Tue Jan 26 2021/ Another pleasant day is on tap for the Mid-South this afternoon, with current temperatures in the lower 60s to our south and lower 50s to our north. Expect cooler and below normal Wednesday, with highs generally in the 40s and lows in the upper 20s.
Outgoing forecast maintains a conservative approach to the clearing, but affords all locations with a window of clear sky across the lowest 5000 ft Wednesday morning. Thereafter, colder and drier conditions will set up for the rest of the week as arctic high pressure shifts southeast across Ontario.
Wednesday morning will be quite cold with pockets of freezing temperatures across the lower deserts.
Surface temperatures will still be above freezing for the daylight hours, so no impactful accumulations are expected during the day.
Temperatures will drop tonight into the lower teens across the north with morning wind chills expected to hit the single digits across most of the Panhandles and approach zero across areas in the far northeastern Panhandles.
Not planning on a lot of changes with the going TAF trends with re- gard to the timing of the cold front tonight/overnight. Yesterday's surface cold front remains stalled well offshore, with some lingering cloudiness still present across the barrier islands and immediate inland areas. As an upper trough traverses the Central Plains, the approach of a reinforcing cold front overnight will provide an additional surge of cooler air to SE TX as winds strengthen and shift northward. Daytime highs are unlikely to rise above 70, while overnight lows may approach freezing in the northern zones and will otherwise be in the mid-30s to lower 40s.
A major Pacific storm will dump copious amounts of snow starting tonight in the higher elevations of central Idaho, and spread during the morning to the ID-WY border Wed morning.
As a result moisture is lifting above the southern boundary "warm front"and pooling over southern Louisiana and southeast Texas including the coastal waters.
Low temps are expected to fall to near or below freezing over most locations. This cold air will be invading as a mid level trof shifts east from the Plains toward the MS River Valley during the day Wednesday. In addition, with rather mild antecedent temps Tuesday in the north 40s to mid 50s southeast, and much of the light precip expected to occur during the daylight hours Wed with surface temps near or just above freezing, we are really not anticipating a big travel impact at this time. Thereafter, the afrorementioned area of high pressure over the Midwest will build east into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley regions on Thuesday, keeping things dry, but quite chilly, with highs only in the 30s.
A hard freeze warning is in effect for the lower deserts from 2 AM to 9 AM on Wednesday.
While the dewpoint vs SST departure is too high for sea fog formation along the east coast (compared to the cooler Gulf shelf waters on the west coast), we can expect to have morning land fog advect out over the waters during the morning time frame thanks to light offshore winds.
Temps will plummet to around zero degrees by Thu AM, slightly warmer near the lake.
An upper level trough will be exiting western Kansas early this Wednesday morning. The previous forecast still appears to be on track with highs climbing only into the low to mid 20s from Dodge City north northeast given the past 48 hour snowfall reports and that this will be the last area to see the clouds give way to late day sunshine. An upper level ridge will move east out of the Rockies and into the Western High Plains late week as an upper level trough exits the Eastern Pacific and moves across southern California. At this time confidence is not high just how warm temperatures in some areas will get before the next cold front takes aim on southwest Kansas early this weekend given the snowfall over the past few days.
Even with light amounts over the west, road temperatures will be below freezing, so accumulations on roads (especially untreated) and slippery conditions are expected. Greatest impacts will be along and east of the Highway 65 corridor due to greater amounts and peak snowfall during peak travel hours in the morning.
As this transition occurs, a cooler, drier airmass is forecast to enter Central AL from the northwest behind a separate cold front associated with the aforementioned trough ejecting toward the TN and OH Valleys this afternoon. High pressure will continue to build into the Eastern & Southeastern CONUS with transition to northerly winds across the Deep South.
Light freezing drizzle may be possible early this morning in upslope areas, but accumulation potential will be minimal and the threat for impacts is low. The low temperature forecast remains around 5-8F above the average.
Ceilings and visbys improve during the afternoon on Wednesday as a cold front moves through the area. This will finally shove the boundary south and east of the area as a cold front by early afternoon. Dense fog will continue to affect the nearshore waters and coastal areas through the morning hours until the cold front clears the area and ends the threat of rain and dense fog. The drier and cooler airmass continues through Thursday with temps well below normal on Thursday. Highs on Thursday will be much colder, in the low to mid 50s. Lows tonight in the low to mid 50s inland to low 60s along the coast dropping into the low/mid 30s inland to near 40 along the for Wednesday night.
A cold front moved through South Central Texas overnight. A secondary surge of high pressure will move into our area later this morning into midday causing northerly winds to become breezy again with gusts to 25 mph across most areas. No rain is expected as the lower levels dry as Gulf of Mexico moisture becomes cut off.
That being said, still went on the lower side of guidance for tonight's low temperatures (blended in a fair bit of the NBM 25th percentile). On Thursday, we will see upper-level ridging build in across the central CONUS as a longwave trough digs down the West Coast.
Stable conditions prevail due to a deep layered ridge aligned over the Bahamas. Stable conditions will continue with the broad deep layered ridge remaining nearby and associated warm dry air aloft. A ridge will remain across South Florida, keeping winds light out of the east to southeast. Winds will tend to be more backed over the cooler gulf waters.
After 12Z MVFR cigs and a gusty nw wind 20-25kts wl develop over the area from the nw as a strong cold front drops through the area. This trough will serve to kick both boundaries out of our region and aid in ushering in only a slightly cooler but definitely drier airmass. As for temperatures, the current mild conditions will give way to overnight lows in the low 40s over the northwest and in the mid 50s over the southeast CWA. Highs will range from the low 50s in the northwest to the upper 60s in the southeast.
Expect MVFR to periodic IFR conditions later tonight through early Wed morning with the lower flight conditions likely across far NW AR where a period of light snow is likely. A dry low level airmass, and a relative lack of saturation in the dendritic growth zone region will make impactful snow hard to come by, with perhaps up to a quarter inch or so in a few spots, especially in the higher elevations of northwest Arkansas.
Warmer valley temperatures will result in valley rain or a rain-snow mix on Thursday. Heavy snow is forecast for much of the higher terrain of the area, along with a few lower-elevation areas.
While some of the high resolution CAM guidance shows the rain will wind up south of our CWA, the forecast looks to be well in line with most guidance so felt no adjustments were warranted there. Incoming cold front will reinforce northerly winds at all sites tonight and Wed, with some showers and lower ceilings developing around the TN/GA border. CD Chattanooga Airport, TN 47 58 30 45 26 / 30 60 40 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 43 54 29 39 23 / 10 80 80 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 41 55 28 39 22 / 10 80 60 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 37 53 26 35 18 / 0 80 80 10 0 TN.
Winds will become westerly behind the trough and then northerly behind the front. As the low approaches, it will provide some upper-level lift over the area. Along with the lift from the low, a cold front will drop through the area, providing some low lift. As temperatures drop below freezing, this precipitation will transition to light snow. With temperatures being well below freezing in this area, slick spots on the roadway may form. Kendrick Upper level ridging will move in beginning late Wednesday and through the day Thursday. Upper level flow will begin to back late on Thursday as a sharp upper trough moves on shore on the west coast.
This will finally shove the boundary south and east of the area as a cold front by early afternoon. Dense fog will continue to affect the nearshore waters and coastal areas through the morning hours until the cold front clears the area and ends the threat of rain and dense fog. The drier and cooler airmass continues through Thursday with temps well below normal on Thursday. Highs on Thursday will be much colder, in the low to mid 50s. Lows tonight in the low to mid 50s inland to low 60s along the coast dropping into the low/mid 30s inland to near 40 along the for Wednesday night.
08 Previous short-term discussion: /Updated at 1055 AM CST Tue Jan 26 2021/ The cold front has cleared the area as of writing, noticable by the northwest wind and much lower dewpoints.
Upper low associated with the snow continues to reside over east central Colorado. Some wrap-around is possible as the low passes, but overall no changes to expected overnight snow(00z-12z Wednesday). Light snow will continue to lift out across the forecast area from the southwest to the northeast late this afternoon and evening as a low pressure system moves from southeast Colorado across western Kansas this evening. Snow will end from west to east after midnight as the low begins to move more quickly across Kansas as an open wave overnight tonight and across Missouri by mid day Wednesday. Dry air aloft moves into the region on Wednesday with the upper ridge that also brings warmer temperatures to the area on Wednesday and Thursday.
Southwest winds increase ahead of an approaching cold front. However, going into the afternoon hours, the cold front will continue its approach from the northwest, with moisture and pre-frontal lift starting to increase as it does so. Will continue a slight shower chance through around midnight for most of west central Florida, but coverage of showers is expected to diminish after sunset as upper-level support lifts away from the area and dry air starts advecting in from the northwest behind the cold front. Winds will veer from south to southwesterly ahead of a cold front increasing to 15 knots across the northern waters, but remaining around 10 knots to the south.
1052 PM CST Tue Jan 26 2021 Some brief upper level ridging will move across the region this evening. The subsidence from this and the area of low pressure in the low levels building in from the northwest will allow for at least some partial clearing across mainly the northern sections early tonight. The clouds will spread back in late tonight as another short wave trough moves by to the south of the area. In the wake of today's departing storm system, an area of high pressure is expected to build in over the region and help to clear out the clouds for Wednesday night. The upper level flow will turn to the southwest allowing a short wave trough to eject out of the West Texas region and advance northeast across the Mid- Mississippi River Valley.
1014 PM CST Tue Jan 26 2021 Warm front has moved onshore this evening and has progressed as far north as the New Orleans area and just off the Mississippi coast. In areas where the warm front has passed, temperatures and dew points have risen to near 70 degrees, and areas near the coast have seen some of the low clouds break up. Currently, most of the shower activity is north of the warm front. There remains a threat for fog near the warm front, but indications are that in any one location, it should be brief, not much more than an hour or two. Model solutions show cold front moving into the western portion of the CWA around 6 AM CST and sweeping eastward during the morning.
Mostly clear and cold weather tonight will be followed by a slightly warmer day Wednesday.