Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
255 AM CDT Tue May 16 2017 At 2 AM CDT, a warm front extended from northwest Iowa through southeast Iowa and central Illinois. Early morning temperatures ranged from the low 60s to low 70s.
Overnight lows still expected to drop into the lower 60s in the east and mid 60s in the west. Southerly flow between departing high pressure and approaching low pressure will persist through the period.
An upper level ridge extends north into the central great lakes region, with upper divergence across southern Wisconsin lifting north this morning. The strong 120 knot jet max at the base of the trough will lift north into Iowa by sunrise Wednesday. The surface warm front should be north of the forecast area today with southern Wisconsin well into the warm sector trough tonight. Will bring a chance of thunderstorms later this evening mainly far west and northwest closer to the developing lift late with the approaching upper trough.
420 AM EDT Tue May 16 2017 High pressure will dominate the weather of eastern Kentucky in the short term. They all depict a southeast ridge gradually breaking down under the influence of a deep trough approaching from the west over the weekend. A lead trough Wednesday night will brush by to the northwest with little impact on the ridge's protection over eastern Kentucky.
High pressure builds Wednesday through the weekend with a gradual warming and drying trend.
Meanwhile, the first of two upper closed lows advances from the desert southwest and across the High Plains Tuesday night. This negatively tilted trough and cold front bring additional shower and thunderstorm chances to the area, moving from west to east.
Strong southwest flow aloft with an upper level jet streak moving into the Northern Plains and a lee trough will provide the focus for showers and thunderstorms this evening and overnight.
221 AM EDT Tue May 16 2017 VFR conditions under high pressure.
The freezing level still remains near 6500 feet, so accumulations are likely mostly occuring above 6500 feet. Temperatures today will be about 15 degrees below normal for highs, and could threaten the lowest high temperature value for this calendar day here at the Medford Airport (57 forecast, 55 current record). However, model analogs indicate it 3-5 degrees warmer.
140 AM EDT Tue May 16 2017 High pressure will build over the East Coast through the week, bringing much warmer temperatures and dry weather. 00Z upper air analysis depicts an upper level low departing off the New England coast and a mid/upper level ridge orientated south-north from the northern Gulf into the lower Great Lakes. With the upper low departing, mid/upper level heights were recovering over the Carolinas. The weak forcing supplied by a weak mid level trough has aided to produce the patchy cloudiness. The drier low level air mass over the northeast counties will allow temperatures to cool into the low and mid 50s. As a weak high pressure at the surface shifts offshore early, expect sunny skies and continued warming temperatures.
353 AM EDT Tue May 16 2017 High pressure will result in dry and very warm conditions through the middle of the week.
Upper level ridge of high pressure currently expands across the eastern half of the United States. Strong subsidence underneath this ridge will suppress any chance for convection, thus chance of rain today is 0%. The ridge will gradually slide east but remain anchored over the Gulf of Mexico and western Atlantic later this week as a broad trough replaces it from the west.
335 AM CDT Tue May 16 2017 The warm front of recent interest stretches from southeastern South Dakota across southern Minnesota and west central Wisconsin. Today will be warmer given the location of the front (with much of the area in the warm sector), and considering convection will diminish in time to allow for recovery of the airmass. By evening, expect thunderstorms to fire along and ahead of the cold front, roughly along I-35 and eastward into WI. Wednesday will be turning cooler as a frontal boundary moves across the area.
Northeast Montana will be in southwest flow aloft today and tonight as an upper low currently over British Columbia moves southeast across the Pacific NW today and tonight. However, precipitation associated the upper low will be moving into West and Central Montana during the day. An upper ridge will develop along the MT/Canada border which will keep most of NE Montana dry.
654 AM EDT Tue May 16 2017 High pressure will result in dry and very warm conditions through the middle of the week.
/Issued 327 PM EDT Mon May 15 2017/ Looks like the warm and dry forecast will continue through this short term period characterized by high pressure ridge at the surface and aloft.
201 AM EDT Tue May 16 2017 High pressure moves over the area tonight, then off the Mid Atlantic coast Tuesday.
Currently, a warm front is draped across central Nebraska and gradually lifting northward, aided by gusty southerly winds. Chances for thunder continue into Wednesday as the first of two upper lows moves into Nebraska. Temperatures on Wednesday will be markedly cooler, with highs only reaching the 70s.
The models drive another cold front through Wrn and Ncntl Neb in the morning. Increasing moisture and strong upper level dynamics emerging from the upper level low across the Wrn U. The first of Two upper level lows moves Tuesday night and Wednesday.
This wind will also continue to advect warmer and more moist air into the region. High temperatures will once again be in the lower to middle 90s west, to the mid and upper 80s east. Potent upper level trough coming out of the Four Corners region and toward West Texas tonight is expected to develop convection from the Big Bend region that will gradually shift east and southeastward overnight. A quicker exit of any lingering cloud cover/rain would make warmer temperatures reachable.
Surface warm front draped from central IA southeast into nrn IL/central IN as of 18z will lift northward through the area tonight, while a MCV over the Upper Midwest decays east through WI/far nrn IL/MI. With that said these features may come together to clip areas north of Route 6 with a brief shower/rumble of thunder between 03-08z, though confidence in any precipitation making it this far southeast remains low (hence the low PoPs). Tuesday into Wednesday will feature summer-like warmth and breezy conditions in warm sector as southwest flow deepens in advance of a broadening Western US/Plains upper trough.
308 AM CDT Tue May 16 2017 A ridge of high pressure remains in control of the Midsouth weather.
Low pressure system moving into the Central Plains tonight will bring a chance for some light rain to southern ND, though should remain well south of I94 as dry high pressure begins to build in across the north. Lows will be cooler tonight, dipping down into the mid/upper 30s far north.
Upper low currently centered over CA, will continue to move east and push the ridge farther east of TX.
353 AM PDT Tue May 16 2017 A low pressure system over Arizona will move eastward today with scattered lights showers ending from the northwest this morning.
646 AM EDT Tue May 16 2017 High pressure will hold dry weather and above normal temperatures across the area through most of the week. Upper level ridge over the Mississippi valley will be building over the Carolinas and Georgia. With subsidence and weak warm advection temperatures should be slightly warmer than yesterday most areas. Highs in the low to mid 90s. Models indicate a mean upper ridge east of the Mississippi River and a mean upper trough over the western states into the weekend.
Add to this the upper low still spinning well to our west over SOCAL at 4 AM and it makes sense to curb the dryline a good 30-50 miles farther west today than most operational models indicate. Surprisingly, 00Z RAOBs upstream did not sample any potential for EML warming as 700mb temps are largely comparable or even cooler at some stations to our SW. As the upper trough enters NM later today, max height falls will take aim on our region in concert with a -20C cold pocket aloft. This forcing should be sufficient to tug the dryline west across the eastern Caprock through sunset, at which point a modest Pacific cold front will bolster strong LL convergence and the eventual development of a squall line, generally favoring our SE zones.
321 AM CDT Tue May 16 2017 At 06Z, high pressure was centered in VA/NC with a ridge axis west- southwest through AL. This ridge will shift east through the day allowing a southerly flow to develop at the surface.
This boundary will likely become the focus for showers and thunderstorms tonight, with development then possible across the CWA as the low works its way to over the CWA by Tuesday morning. High temperatures on Tuesday will range from the upper 60s over the north central part of the state, to the lower 80s across the northeast and into west central Minnesota.
The mid/upper level ridge will continue over the region.
330 AM CDT Tue May 16 2017 Closed upper cyclone was analyzed across southern Nevada with overnight convection confined to frontal system well to our north. As the aforementioned upper cyclone progresses east.
East and northeast facing slopes will see the highest totals. As the column cools, the higher elevations still look to see snowfall and with the high, upslope induced QPF the accumulations will be heavy.
Local radars are only detecting a few showers withing a minor boundary aligned over the Lower Keys and the adjacent nearshore and offshore waters. Meanwhile, a broad area of high pressure is centered over the mid Atlantic and southeastern United States including the Sunshine State. A large high pressure system will move offshore of the southeastern United States and strengthen resulting in a deepening and increasing easterly flow for at least the next several days. Meanwhile, the axis of a mid and upper level trough just to our east will move little while maintaining a large zone of upward vertical motion across southeast Cuba, southeast Bahamas and portions of Haiti. Medium range guidance, ECMWF/GFS diverge substantially with ECMWF indicating pockets of higher moisture migrating westward and through our area, while GFS reveals a deep trough moving slowly through our region.
102 AM EDT Tue May 16 2017 High pressure will remain in control across the eastern Great Lakes through tonight. A warm front will lift north through the region Tuesday afternoon.
138 AM EDT Tue May 16 2017 A ridge of high pressure will allow for warm and dry conditions through the middle of the week. Temperatures will range from near 50 east of Columbus to the lower 60s in SE Indiana. Mid level ridge will continue to build into the Ohio Valley on Tuesday as warm front departs to our northeast. It will be warm with lows in the lower to mid 60s.
This storm system will result in cooler temperatures today and will also support scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms, mainly in the afternoon and evening hours. A cold front will also impact the area on Wednesday as a second deeper and colder storm system approaches from the northwest. This cold front will provide additional lift and instability which will increase snow rates over the mountains Wednesday afternoon and evening.
354 AM EDT Tue May 16 2017 With a strong upper ridge across the region and the summer-like Bermuda high to the east, expect increased southerly low level fetch and abnormally warm conditions to persist thru the short term. The 500mb ridge will have drifted e and s of the area and a weak short wave will move across the nw portion of the forecast area Wednesday night but looks to have little available moisture to work with so no significant pops will be associated.
139 AM EDT Tue May 16 2017 Low pressure near Nova Scotia drifts farther away from the Tri- State Region through Tuesday.
347 AM EDT Tue May 16 2017 High pressure will hold dry weather and above normal temperatures across the area through most of the week. Upper level ridge over the Mississippi valley will be building over the Carolinas and Georgia. With subsidence and weak warm advection temperatures should be slightly warmer than yesterday most areas. Highs in the low to mid 90s. Models indicate a mean upper ridge east of the Mississippi River and a mean upper trough over the western states into the weekend.
604 AM EDT Tue May 16 2017 High pressure through Wednesday with increasing temperatures. A high pressure system will provide dry weather and much warmer temperatures today. With the ground not fully dried out from previous rains, think the MAV MOS in the lowlands is too high. Will go more toward the cooler MET MOS. Upper ridge continues shifting east with a gradual transition to broad southwesterly flow aloft. Large upper closed low quickly ejects northeast across the Great Lakes before phasing with a large upper low across eastern Canada. A weak cold front will approach from the west, but persistent upper ridging across the southeastern states will limit southward progression of this feature. That said, model guidance becomes less consistent in handling the evolution of the ridge, so actual frontal placement and timing may vary.
Temps at 3 am range from the lower 60s for most, to lower 70 in our far south. Through the short term period today/tonight, focus turns to the west, with satellite imagery showing the next feature of interest, an upper level low, spinning over the desert SW. Low pressure becomes better organized over eastern CO through the day ahead of the approaching upper level system. Models continue to show a frontal boundary draped SW-NE across the region, but partly because of models not having the greatest handle on the current sfc pattern, confidence in the exact placement of sfc features isn't the highest, but should become more clear as the day passes. AT this point, kept the higher PoPs across that southeastern half.
UPDATE Issued at 1052| PM EDT MON MAY 15 2017 An upper level ridge continues to dominate with only passing cirrus at present. Hourly grids were freshened up to account for steep nocturnal inversion/ridge valley temperature split currently in place between the valleys and the ridges. Some valley locations are currently around 60 or in the lower 60s with some ridgetops in the low to mid 70s.
A warm and dry pattern continues through Wednesday as high pressure slides off to the east of central Indiana.
High pressure will dominate the weather of eastern Kentucky in the short term. They all depict a southeast ridge gradually breaking down under the influence of a deep trough approaching from the west over the weekend. A lead trough Wednesday night will brush by to the northwest with little impact on the ridge's protection over eastern Kentucky.
315 AM CDT Tue May 16 2017 Closed off upper level low near Las Vegas, NV will open up as it moves this way today and tonight. As this upper level feature approaches the panhandles today, upper level diffluence will increase, low level moisture will increase and the lower and mid level shear will increase. A Pacific cold front will sweep across the panhandles by late this evening and this should touch off another round of thunderstorms when it catches up to the dryline, but these are expected to be east of our area.
Active weather day today and Wednesday as an upper level low pressure system and associated cold front move through the region. The low was just northwest of Seattle at 09z and is expected to continue southeast today moving directly over the forecast area by early Wednesday morning. The cold frontal passage will mark the end of the widespread precipitation as it moves quickly across southeast Oregon between 21z-00z reaching Boise around 02z and the Western Magic Valley by 05z. The low center moves over the Southwest Idaho Wednesday morning which will bring convective rain and snow showers mainly to Southeast Oregon. As the low continues east Wednesday afternoon rain mixed with graupel showers will develop over Southwestern Idaho. Northerly flow on the backside of the low favors good orographic lift in the Owyhee Mountains, Southwest Highlands and Southern Twin Falls County.
255 AM MST Tue May 16 2017 A series of low pressure systems will move through the Desert Southwest this week, bringing cooler temperatures, breezy conditions, and a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms to the higher terrain of eastern Arizona. A couple of unseasonably cool weather systems will deepen into AZ this week to reinforce a cooler airmass that has provided pleasantly cool below normal temperatures.
215 AM CDT Tue May 16 2017 Quiet again early this morning with high pressure off to our east.
241 PM CDT Sun May 28 2017 As of 19Z a closed upper low continues to spin across the Great Lakes region. At the surface, high pressure continues to build in across the central plains. Sunny skies will continue through the remainder of the day with high temperatures reaching the lower 80s! A weak surface front will sag southward through the outlook area late tonight/early Monday morning.
Late night advection fog and low clouds look likely again tonight with the low level flow from the Gulf of Mexico.
High pressure will continue to build over the southwest United States for the Memorial Day Weekend with warmer temperatures, light winds and a slight chance for showers and thunderstorms over the mountains of eastern Arizona. A ridge of high pressure will continue to move across the western United States bringing warm conditions to the area along with light winds.
/issued 329 AM CDT Sun May 28 2017/ Fairly strong westerlies aloft were present tonight between mean ridging to our south and Canadian closed low centered near Lake Winnipeg. Convection initiated first along the dryline and then along a southward moving cold front. Cooler temperatures (around normal for late May) are expected today, along with drier/less humid air mass.
A generally unsettled pattern will persist through the week due to the system's upper level low lingering over the area.
1132 AM MDT Sun May 28 2017 Upper trough shifting from Colorado into the central plains early this morning, while surface cold front has raced well south out of Colorado and into wrn TX.
Scattered thunderstorms over far southern lower Michigan on into northern Indiana and Ohio will gradually expand in coverage as they move northeast into area along an advancing warm front. While low level shear is generally very weak, there will be a small window for an isolated tornado threat along the warm front as it edges into the far southern forecast area.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 67 81 65 83 / 50 50 40 30 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 67 80 61 82 / 50 50 20 30 Oak Ridge, TN 66 81 61 82 / 40 40 20 30 Tri Cities Airport, TN 62 78 58 81 / 50 30 20 30.
332 PM MDT Sun May 28 2017 Models continue to show moderate northwesterly flow aloft across Colorado as an upper ridge builds over the western United States. At the surface, high pressure building over Woming and Montana will feed cool northerly winds into northeast Colorado that keeps afternoon temperatures around the 70 degree mark, similar to this afternoon. An upper level ridge will extend from the Great Basin to the Pacific Northwest Monday evening. The ridge weakens as it shifts eastward through the week.
500 PM MDT Sun May 28 2017 Updated Aviation Discussion An upper-level ridge of high pressure currently over the Pacific Northwest will slowly move eastward over the next few days.
This second round was associated with a mid level short wave and surface cold front. There looks to be a lull in the convective activity during the night, but still have some PoPs mainly across north central Wisconsin closer to the surface and upper level cyclones. A cooler air mass, clouds, and rain will keep temperatures cooler on Memorial Day than they were today.
The strong upper low, currently in Manitoba, moves into northern Minnesota tonight and works into the Great Lakes region by morning, causing scattered showers to stick around through the overnight hours. Cloudy skies, close proximity to the upper low, and breezy northwest flow will make for a cool day Monday, with highs only reaching the 50s to lower 60s and lows in the 40s Monday night.
309 PM CDT Sun May 28 2017 Cold front is currently across N TX through central AR and will focus any further convection south and east of the forecast area.
This has allowed a bubble high to develop over the area and dewpoints have dropped into the low to mid 60s.
Ridging over the region will weaken on Sunday as a frontal boundary slowly slides into the area.
A cold front will pass through the area later this afternoon and evening. Convection developing over the far northwest zones near a surface cold front and mid level vorticity tail. Model data indicate an upper low will slowly progress across the upper Great Lakes during this period.
327 PM EDT Sun May 28 2017 Clouds still hanging around this afternoon, creating partly to mostly cloudy and cooler conditions.
344 PM EDT Sun May 28 2017 High pressure will linger over the region into Monday. A weak cold front will gradually sag south across the area prior to midweek. Atlantic high pressure will extend west over the region late week into the upcoming weekend. After midnight it should be dry with temperatures only falling into the lower to mid 70s most locales.
657 PM EDT Sun May 28 2017 A warm front will lift north of the area by this evening as a weak cold front moves across the area from the west tonight.
The upper flow pattern consists of a trough that runs through central Canada and into the Upper Mississippi Valley, and a ridge that runs northward through the Pacific Northwest and British Columbia. Cool air advection and a strong pressure gradient between low pressure to the east and high pressure to the west created strong northwest winds today. Models place eastern Montana in a dry slot between the showers of the trough to our east, and showers over the stationary frontal boundary to our west.
A sharp upper ridge of high pressure over the Pacific states will gradually shift E as a low pressure trough pivots toward the N CA coast. The combination of increased low-level moisture and instability, along with some weak dynamic forcing associated with the approaching upper trough and vorticity, will lead to an increased shot at convection over the interior Monday afternoon.
High pressure will continue to be in control over the next couple of days with temperatures continuing to climb.
A weak cold front currently moving into EWX's CWA is progged to stall across South TX tonight and Monday and interact with abundant moisture to produce numerous shra/tsra's. The highest pops shift east late tonight into early Mon morning with convection becoming more elevated behind the front. There may be localized flooding, but given the high FFG values, and uncertainty as to where the heaviest rainfall will ultimately end up, (some mesoscale models show heaviest rainfall moving into the gulf and others show the precip moving SW into Mex and BRO's CWA) am not expecting widespread flooding at this time.
cold front is just entering the northwest portion of the CWA but it should pass through the area this evening. The upper level low currently over southern Canada is forecast to move south into the Great Lakes area tomorrow. One of the larger pieces of energy will help push another cold front southward into the Lower Ohio Valley by tomorrow evening.
1116 AM MDT Sun May 28 2017 Closed low over southern Canada will continue to support unsettled weather today as yet another impulse will advect through the region. However, forecast models continue to vary sig on exact details per the evolution/progression of upper level flow given blocking potential over much of Canada.
On Monday, the upper level low over Ontario will rotate another piece of energy southward across the region. Cooler air will begin moving into the region on Monday as well, with highs dropping back down into the 60s with breezy northwest winds.
SHORT TERM (Now through Monday Night): To say the least it is hot once again across the CWA with the Heat Advisory working out well with temperatures and dew points peaking out ahead of a weak cold front approaching South Central Texas.