Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
234 PM MDT Mon Oct 5 2020 Northwest flow will continue across the area as high pressure builds across the Great Basin. This will lead to another breezy day Tuesday as another weak cold front approaches from the north.
Otherwise, return flow will continue to prevail as high pressure remains to the east with broad lee-side troughing to the northwest. /Issued 324 AM CDT Mon Oct 5 2020/ /Tuesday And Beyond/ North and Central Texas will remain under the influence of a mid and upper level ridge this week, resulting in abundant sunshine, above-normal temperatures, and rain-free weather. Ridging aloft should keep tropical activity in the Gulf of Mexico and rain chances south and east from the region.
243 PM EDT Mon Oct 5 2020 A coastal trough will bring the chance for showers to the eastern Midlands on Tuesday.
A weakening cold front will press into Central Lower late tonight and on Tuesday.
Winds should diminish early this evening and transition to westerly and northwesterly as the trough axis passes across the state overnight. The rest of the week will be a story of competing forces with the large western thermal ridge and large arctic low across southern Canada and the Great Lakes region. This will keep a decent thermal gradient across the area with northern Iowa in the low 70s and southern Iowa around 80 for the next few days.
A center of high pressure moves over the area tomorrow allowing light and variable winds to be felt across the Central High Plains. As for temperatures, lows tonight look to range from the low 40s along the KS/CO border to low 50s across south central Kansas. Highs tomorrow are progged to reach into the low to mid 80s. Mostly clear skies and dry conditions continue through the weed into the weekend as high pressure remains the dominate feature across the Central Plains.
The ridge which has been doggedly plaguing the Western half of the U. This break down is being helped by the remains of Tropical Storm Maria and the two rather strong TUTTs (Tropical Upper Tropospheric Troughs) in Eastern Pacific. Additionally, there is a powerful cold front pushing down from the Aleutian Islands that will serve to finally dislodge the ridge and force it east into the Great Plains. The ridge will slowly move into the Great Plains for much of this week. As this ridge encroaches on the region, subsidence will keep the skies clear and winds will remain rather light for the short term.
Clouds have been decreasing this morning in most areas behind cold front but have been slow to clear across the big lakes and associated valleys across extreme southeast Tennessee and southwest North Carolina this morning. Temperatures were warmer this morning than previous mornings with cloud cover overnight mostly in the upper 40s to lower 50s. Highs today should be a few degrees cooler behind the front. The highs will be in the mid 60s extreme northeast and higher elevations to mid 70s near Chattanooga. Predominant VFR conditions and light winds forecast for all sites this afternoon and evening with high pressure across the region.
The mulish ridge of high pressure, which has remained firmly in place across the West for nearly two weeks, will finally start to show signs of weakening and sliding southeast this week. A change to much cooler weather with a good chance for precipitation is expected over the weekend. Although the typical model differences in timing of features (cold front, precipitation, etc. When compared to seasonal norms, the upcoming low pressure trough and its potential weather are not all that unusual or extraordinary. But most models lean towards something other than a high pressure with the ECMWF, which has recently been the most consistent model, pointing towards a period of colder troughing over the Northern Rockies.
Greater amount of sunshine and warmer low level temperatures on the back side of high pressure should bring a nicer day with highs into the mid 60s to lower 70s. Could end up a few degrees warmer than forecasted right now, especially SW areas.
The cu should then erode away from the southwest through late afternoon into early evening as the low level flow continues to back around to the southwest and we lose the daytime heating. Will range lows from the upper 30s southeast to the lower 40s northwest. The pressure gradient will continue to tighten through the day on Tuesday as the high moves of to our southeast.
Otherwise, return flow will continue to prevail as high pressure remains to the east with broad lee-side troughing to the northwest.
1235 PM EDT Mon Oct 5 2020 High pressure centered over the western North Atlantic reaches west across the Bahamas to near Florida.
Temperatures ranged from the low 30s to the upper 30s across the far western CWA where southerly winds had already begun. High pressure was sliding east of the area as the pressure gradient begun to strengthen west of the area. A couple of dry cold front passages are still expected, however as previously noted WAA returns quickly to the area, so temps do not drop much. Model soundings show winds increasing in the 1200-1800 ft agl layer to 40 kts from the SW for a period later this evening into the overnight ahead of a cold front, and therefore have added mention of LLWS from roughly 03z to 09z. Later tonight into early Tuesday AM, a cold front is expected to move across the terminals accompanied by a shift in winds from the NW and a period of mid cloudiness.
241 PM EDT Mon Oct 5 2020 High pressure persists through midweek.
Temperatures ranged from the low 30s to the upper 30s across the far western CWA where southerly winds had already begun. High pressure was sliding east of the area as the pressure gradient begun to strengthen west of the area. A couple of dry cold front passages are still expected, however as previously noted WAA returns quickly to the area, so temps do not drop much. Later tonight into early Tuesday AM, a cold front is expected to move across the terminals accompanied by a shift in winds from the NW and a period of mid cloudiness.
Temperatures tomorrow should be warmer than today with more veered flow and also downsloped upstream airmass behind the front.
This trough has created a 6mb pressure gradient across the CWA as high pressure pushes east across the MS River valley. With the upper ridge slowly building east as well, temperatures look similar to today in central KS while eastern areas warm up a few more degrees, bringing highs to the low to mid 80s.
Dome of high pressure will continue to dominate the weather across much of the southeast through midweek.
Gusty south winds prevail with temperatures climbing into the low to mid 80s already by mid afternoon.
1148 AM MDT Mon Oct 5 2020 The ridge centered on the SW US will remain persistent through the next 36 hours, generally deflecting any significant weather systems to the north. A weak cold front will move across eastern and central WY this morning, hanging up along the Continental Divide by noon. High temperatures today behind the front will be 5 to 8 degrees cooler, but still remaining a good 5 to 10 degrees above normal. Southern WY will remain in the drier and warmer airmass south of the front, with gusty west winds expected through the afternoon.
Once the tropical system moves on shore, it is expected to make a NE move ahead of trailing upper trough.
H500 northwest flow will bring persistent large scale subsidence downstream of ridge axis along Pacific coastline into the Panhandles region. Light northerly winds following a weak cold front will usher in some cool temperatures, at or a degree or two cooler than last night for low temperatures. A spread of large scale subsidence over the ridge will expand eastward during the day tomorrow. East to southeasterly flow during the day tomorrow should keep temperatures above average for early October with temperatures ranging from the lower to upper 80s across the region. Mostly clear skies will continue through tomorrow night under this persistent region of high pressure.
Thinking that temperatures will be on the higher side of guidance during that period, dew points will be on the lower side, and wind speeds/gusts will be on the higher side. Model soundings even show the potential for mixing down warmer/drier/windier conditions. Upper troughing near ON begins to shift east allowing increased heights to overspread the Northern Plains. This will continue seasonably average to well above average temperatures as warm air masses from the High Plains/central Rockies advects over the region underneath ridging aloft.
CIMMS mean-layer analyses depict deep and well-stacked ridging over the western North Atlantic, extending west into the eastern Gulf of Mexico. The most recent scans from the KBYX VWP highlight weakly veering southeasterlies, painting the southwestern flank of the mean-layer ridging. The forecast for the next 48 to 60 hours will be controlled by the ridging to our northeast and Tropical Storm Delta.
251 PM CDT Mon Oct 5 2020 Upper level trough over the eastern U. and an upper level ridge over the western U. will prevail through mid week before ridge begins to break down and shift eastward into the central part of the U. Warm south to southwest winds will prevail ahead of the boundary, so low temperatures tonight will be 10 to 15 degrees warmer than this morning, in the low 40s to low 50s. With the upper ridge over the central portions of the country, warm pattern sets up with relatively quiet weather through the rest of the work week.
Mostly sunny skies today and light winds as high pressure has settled across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. Pattern evolution through the period will feature little change into late week as the upper trough axis shifts east, however leaving persistent dry nwly flow behind for East TN and southwest VA/NC.
Tonight and Tuesday The main events for the short term forecast will be winds gusting through the evening and the passage of a weak cold front overnight. This afternoon and evening, fairly windy conditions will continue as the high pressure system departs to our east. Tonight, a weak cold front is expected to pass over the region, which will bring just enough dynamics to create a few sprinkles across the far north. The cool air behind the front will also be fairly lackluster, so low temperatures are expected to still be warmer than the past couple nights, in the lower to middle 40s.
either side of 60F off the ridges this afternoon. For tonight, decent radiation can be expected with a clearing sky and diminished wind; hence, lows 5 to 10 degrees under the averages were progged with patchy frost north and patchy fog in the ridges where low level moisture looks to be more extensive.
The center of high pressure is distant in the Ohio valley, but sprawls all the way back into E TX.
Smoke has thinned or cleared in most of our CWA behind last night's weak surface cold front along with windshift aloft from westerly to northwesterly.
A mid-level ridge is spreading over Texas from the west with weak anticyclonic flow. The low level flow is also weak, but generally from the south.
Short range guidance (HRRR/RAP) show the smoke moving out of the area this afternoon with the passage of cold front so no long lasting impacts are expected.
A weak moisture starved cold front will move across late tonight into Tuesday morning with nothing than some patchy mid and high clouds north despite very steep lapse rates aloft due to very dry column. Another moisture starved cold front will approach Tuesday night, trailing from strengthening low pressure tracking across the northern Lakes.
The near term pattern starts off with a trof at high levels extending from over the deep south to northern Mexico. Looking at the mid and lower levels, the geo- potential mass fields shows a break in the ridge over the lower MS River Valley. As the nose of a mid-level ridge over the northern Bahamas begins to build west across the FL peninsula and into the central Gulf, the moisture axis over the northeast Gulf pivots northwest across the coastal waters tonight and then across the I-65 corridor Tuesday. High pressure to the north maintains a northeast flow 10 to 15 kts along the coast with a light northeast component over the interior through the afternoon.
High pressure will remain settled over the region through the TAF cycle. The ridge wl begin to weaken on Tue, allowing a warming trend to commence heading into the middle of the week.
A combination of coastal troughing and stationary front draped across east central FL will continue late morning showers streaming onshore from the Atlantic waters. Warmer temps aloft and high PW will favor heavy downpours and a threat for minor flooding today, with only a slight chance for thunderstorm development through the evening. Highs today will be limited across the north due to cloud cover in the low to mid 80s; southward highs will reach the upper 80s. Warmer temps aloft will limit TS chances today, although an isolated storm cannot be ruled out this afternoon.
305 PM EDT Mon Oct 5 2020 The low level east to northeast flow will continue around high pressure moving across the eastern U.
Temperatures will moderate through the week and mainly dry conditions expected as high pressure dominates until late in the week. High pressure currently in the Ohio River Valley will move east over the Mid Atlantic by tonight. Temperatures around normal and slightly warmer than yesterday as more sunshine is expected over the afternoon. Tonight: Moisture attempts to push back into the area with an upper level trough aiding in onshore flow. Lows in the lower 50s in the NW, upper 50s in the CSRA and eastern Midlands as increasing cloud cover and onshore flow should limit cooling towards daybreak.
Otherwise, expect temperatures a few degrees cooler than yesterday, with passing high and mid clouds. STP A cold front has worked through the area and this will provide a cooler day today. Expected highs will be in the lower to mid 70s. Cooler temperatures should allow for higher humidity. Highs will move back into the lower 80s, with humidity levels falling into the teens.
Believe the GFS is a little too aggressive in moving the high eastward, and therefore its temps are too warm. The raw NAM temps are much colder, in spite of 950mb temps that are several degrees warmer than what was observed this morning.
1236 PM CDT Mon Oct 5 2020 High pressure will continue to dominate over South Central Texas keeping VFR conditions at all the terminals for the next TAF period.
Skies will remain mostly cloudy across the area, with lows in the low to mid 70s along the interior, and mid to upper 70s along the coast.
Drier air was evident aloft via the low/ mid/high altitude water vapor views. Dome of high pressure will continue to dominate the weather across much of the southeast through midweek.
Temperatures were nudged a bit cooler for parts of central KY where guidance suggests a strong inversion will be in place and winds will be very light to calm near dawn tomorrow. Believe the GFS is a little too aggressive in moving the high eastward, and therefore its temps are too warm. The raw NAM temps are much colder, in spite of 950mb temps that are several degrees warmer than what was observed this morning.
701 PM EDT Mon Oct 5 2020 There will be an increase in the low level southwest flow during the night. This will lead to both a milder night tonight with lows in the lower to mid 40s and warmer day on Tuesday with highs reaching the mid to upper 60s.
527 PM MDT Mon Oct 5 2020 Latest observations across the forecast area have RH values down in the low teens and double digits as wind gusts continue to blow into the upper 20 and low 30 mph range under Red Flag Warning conditions expected through 7 PM MDT tonight. This all happening as a cold front is moving south as it is currently over the US Hwy 20 corridor. High pressure ridging through the mid-week will keep conditions dry.
902 PM EDT Mon Oct 5 2020 A coastal trough will bring a slight chance for showers to the eastern Midlands on Tuesday.
324 PM MDT Mon Oct 5 2020 Latest observations across the forecast area have RH values down in the low teens and double digits as wind gusts continue to blow into the upper 20 and low 30 mph range under Red Flag Warning conditions expected through 7 PM MDT tonight. This all happening as a cold front is moving south as it is currently over the US Hwy 20 corridor. High pressure ridging through the mid-week will keep conditions dry.
As the high pushes off to the east winds will stay up across eastern Indiana and west central Ohio, where a southerly flow develops. Will range lows from the mid/upper 30s southeast to the lower 40s northwest. Have made slight adjustment cooler based on trends and expanded mention of frost to include a a good portion of northern KY, south central Ohio and the Scioto River Valley. The pressure gradient will continue to tighten through the day on Tuesday as the high moves of to our southeast.
616 PM CDT Mon Oct 5 2020 Upper level trough over the eastern U. and an upper level ridge over the western U. will prevail through mid week before ridge begins to break down and shift eastward into the central part of the U. Warm south to southwest winds will prevail ahead of the boundary, so low temperatures tonight will be 10 to 15 degrees warmer than this morning, in the low 40s to low 50s. With the upper ridge over the central portions of the country, warm pattern sets up with relatively quiet weather through the rest of the work week.
Humidity has crept upward this afternoon with dewpoints now in the low/mid 50s areawide. Highs should top out in the mid/upper 80s under mostly sunny skies, so it'll feel a little warmer tomorrow.
Still expect ongoing dry advection and increasing ridging to take care of the rest of the clouds this evening, with a mostly clear sky overnight. Also added in some patchy valley fog, with cool temperatures in the upper 30s/low 40s over the relatively warmer rivers. either side of 60F off the ridges this afternoon. For tonight, decent radiation can be expected with a clearing sky and diminished wind; hence, lows 5 to 10 degrees under the averages were progged with patchy frost north and patchy fog in the ridges where low level moisture looks to be more extensive.
1049 PM EDT Mon Oct 5 2020 High pressure will build across Pennsylvania this evening, then pass off of the Mid Atlantic coast on Tuesday. Tuesday will be sunny and warmer.
During the second half of the week winds will veer to the southeast and south as high pressure to the north shifts eastward into the Atlantic Ocean and Hurricane Delta moves northwest into the central Gulf with winds and seas remaining elevated. /issued 305 PM EDT Mon Oct 5 2020/ The low level east to northeast flow will continue around high pressure moving across the eastern U.
525 PM MDT Mon Oct 5 2020 A trough slumped across the central CONUS has produced stronger winds aloft as a jet noses across the Northern Rockies. High pressure builds back over the Four Corners region on Tuesday, which should relax winds aloft. Temperatures may fluctuate a touch warmer in response to the ridge sliding back overhead, but none-the-less, our unseasonably warm and dry weather pattern continues.
High pressure will hang around one more day before a Pacific weather system gradually moves across the western states.
Latest observations across the forecast area have RH values down in the low teens and double digits as wind gusts continue to blow into the upper 20 and low 30 mph range under Red Flag Warning conditions expected through 7 PM MDT tonight. This all happening as a cold front is moving south as it is currently over the US Hwy 20 corridor. High pressure ridging through the mid-week will keep conditions dry.
Surface ridging will continue to bring clear skies to the area overnight and into Tuesday. Low level ridging will bring mostly clear skies and light winds through the period with VFR conditions prevailing. Diegan Chattanooga Airport, TN 52 79 54 83 58 / 0 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 50 76 53 79 56 / 0 0 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 50 76 52 80 55 / 0 0 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 47 74 51 76 52 / 0 0 0 0 0.
Cronce (Issued 235 PM CDT Mon Oct 5 2020) Tonight through Tuesday night: It was quite warm this afternoon with temps climbing into the low 60s. Then can expect winds to gradually diminish ahead of a weak cold front that will drape across the region overnight.
closer to the center of the high winds were nearly calm over Northwest Arkansas. This moisture return should aid in overnight temperatures being several degrees warmer tonight compared to last night.
730 PM EDT Mon Oct 5 2020 High pressure building in from the Ohio Valley today, will become centered over the state tonight. Tuesday will be sunny and warmer.
702 PM EDT Mon Oct 5 2020 High pressure building in from the Ohio Valley today, will become centered over the state tonight. Tuesday will be sunny and warmer.
High pressure aloft over the western states will maintain a warm, dry and stable airmass across the region through much of the week. A storm system over the weekend is then expected to bring cooler and wet conditions to the area.
A warm front continues to lift northward up the Florida Peninsula tonight into tomorrow. Warmer temperatures tonight with lows in the upper 60s in southeast Georgia to mid 70s along the northeast Florida coast. An inverted trough will develop over the region through Tuesday, extending northeast from tropical system in the gulf. This trough will keep the flow of moisture aloft from the southwest going through the period.
231 PM PDT Mon Oct 5 2020 Dry weather with unseasonably hot temperatures continues early this week, then much cooler with precipitation returning by the end of the week. Hot and dry temperatures will continue early this week as the West Coast remains under upper level ridging. Early afternoon temperatures in the northern Valley are around 5 degrees warmer than this time yesterday due to the lack of wildfire smoke over the area.
912 PM CDT Mon Oct 5 2020 High pressure remains over the Mid-South this evening.
Skies are mostly clear outside of passing showers with temperatures mainly in the lower 80s across the island chain (with rain-soaked locations in the upper 70s). This ridging in the mid- to upper-levels has prevented even the strongest showers from achieving thunderstorm status this afternoon and evening.
An upper ridge currently located over the western United States is forecast to break down during the second half of the week as upper troughing occurs over the northeastern Pacific Ocean.
Stratocumulus are dissipating with dry advection and increasing ridging. Cool temperatures in the upper 30s/low 40s over the relatively warmer rivers will allow for patchy valley fog formation late tonight, as well as some patchy frost formation in colder spots, although coverage of this phenomenon should remain isolated enough to preclude the need for an advisory.
807 PM EDT Mon Oct 5 2020 High pressure persists through midweek.
A weak cold front will cause a wind shift to the north/northeast after daybreak Tuesday, with all terminals except KFST affected.
642 PM EDT Mon Oct 5 2020 High pressure over the Ohio Valley moves off to the mid-Atlantic region by tomorrow morning. A weakening cold front moves east across the area on Tuesday.
Western US ridging extends back over the western half of the state with a very dry antecedent airmass placed over the region.
During the second half of the week winds will veer to the southeast and south as high pressure to the north shifts eastward into the Atlantic Ocean and Hurricane Delta moves northwest into the central Gulf with winds and seas remaining elevated.
A mid-level ridge is spreading over Texas from the west with weak anticyclonic flow. The low level flow is also weak, but generally from the south. Then Wednesday morning will be a couple of degrees cooler than Tuesday.
Surface ridging will continue to bring clear skies to the area overnight and into Tuesday. DGS Chattanooga Airport, TN 79 54 83 58 82 / 0 0 0 0 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 76 53 79 56 79 / 0 0 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 76 52 80 55 80 / 0 0 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 74 51 76 52 75 / 0 0 0 0 0.