Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
441 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL KEEP IT DRY AND SEASONABLE TODAY INTO TONIGHT. AFTER A FEW SHOWERS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, HIGH PRESSURE WILL TAKE CONTROL FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK WITH DRY AND EVEN WARMER CONDITIONS. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CWA WILL MOVE TO THE EAST COAST TODAY. DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH THE HIGH. ALSO BOUNDARY LEVEL WINDS WILL KEEP THE LOW LEVELS MIXED. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND COLD FRONT IN THE MIDWEST WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EAST INTO THE AREA SUNDAY. SOME FORCING AND LIFT WITH THE UL SHORT WAVE AND SFC TROF BUT LITTLE INSTABILITY.
UPPER LOW CENTERED JUST SOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI COAST THIS MORNING WAS SPREADING MID-HIGH CLOUDS NORTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THIS UPPER LOW WILL DRIFT NORTHWARD OVER THE WEEKEND AND RESULT IN SCATTERED CONVECTION. BELOW THE HIGHER NAM MOS POPS. SO CAN'T RULE OUT REACHING THE WARMER GFS MOS MAXES.
MOS LOWS TONIGHT LOOK REASONABLE GIVEN THE INCREASING DEWPOINTS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL CROSS THE NRN PLAINS TODAY. SWRLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CWA BRINGING WARMER AND DRIER AIR TODAY. UPPER TROUGH WILL CROSS THE PAC NW INTO THE NRN ROCKIES SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS MT SUN AND PUSH INTO THE NRN PLAINS SUN NIGHT.
412 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015 A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW IS MOVING SLOWLY NORTH THROUGH THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION. /EC/ GLOBAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLES SHOWS A PATTERN CHANGE OVER THE CONUS FOR THE PERIOD WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER WESTERN CONUS AND STRONG UPPER RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. OVER THE REGION A WEAK CUT OFF UPPER LOW WILL MEANDER ACROSS THE REGION UNDER THE MEAN UPPER RIDGE.
347 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL KEEP IT DRY AND SEASONABLE TODAY INTO TONIGHT. AFTER A FEW SHOWERS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, HIGH PRESSURE WILL TAKE CONTROL FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK WITH DRY AND EVEN WARMER CONDITIONS. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CWA WILL MOVE TO THE EAST COAST TODAY. DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH THE HIGH. ALSO BOUNDARY LEVEL WINDS WILL KEEP THE LOW LEVELS MIXED. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND COLD FRONT IN THE MIDWEST WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EAST INTO THE AREA SUNDAY. SOME FORCING AND LIFT WITH THE UL SHORT WAVE AND SFC TROF BUT LITTLE INSTABILITY.
210 AM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015 THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA CURRENTLY ALOFT OVER THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES AMPLIFIES INTO A RIDGE THAT STRETCHES FROM THE NEW MEXICO TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE TROUGH OFF THE NORTHWESTERN UNITES STATES SWEEPS INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH ROTATING THROUGH THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH LIFTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON SUNDAY NIGHT.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHEAST. MAIN UPPER PATTERN CONTINUES TO BE DOMINATED BY THE WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE. UPPER TROUGH TO REMAIN TO OUR WEST WITH UPPER RIDGE TO OUR EAST. MAIN CONCERN WILL CONTINUE TO BE STATUS AND TRACK OF TROPICAL CYCLONE ERIKA. EVEN WITHOUT THE CYCLONE IN PLAY.
Patchy valley fog will once again be possible around dawn with lows in the lower and middle 60s. On Sunday high pressure will be crossing New England as a cold front moves into the middle and upper Mississippi Valley. An isolated thunderstorm could pop up in southern Indiana in the heat of the afternoon, but by far the main activity will be well to our northwest as thunderstorms erupt ahead of the cold front from the Midwest into the Great Lakes.
520 PM PDT SAT JUN 6 2015 Temperatures this weekend will be much warmer than average with afternoon readings in the upper 80s to mid 90s.
WITH SHOWERS LINGERING LONGEST OVER THE HIGHER COLORADO MOUNTAINS. THE UPPER LOW WILL WORK ACROSS UTAH TONIGHT AND SHEAR ACROSS THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER ON SUNDAY.
236 PM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015 THE LOW LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW AND A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HAS LED TO AN INCREASING CAP ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. THE SHORT TERM MODELS KEEP THE RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY. WILL TREND CLOSER TO WARMER GUIDANCE TEMPS FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS.
SO HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS WESTERN WI BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THE UPPER WAVE SWINGS THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY AND WE EXPECT TO SEE SLIGHT COOLING ALOFT WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH. THE HIGH TEMPERATURE SHOULD BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOL THAN YESTERDAY AND TODAY. THE UPPER TROUGH ALSO SWINGS THROUGH DURING THE DAY AND COULD BE THE TRIGGER.
WIND SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN AROUND 10KT PRIOR TO THE TROUGH PASSAGE TOMORROW THEN INCREASE TO AROUND 15KT BEHIND THE TROUGH. UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA WILL WEAKEN AS IT SLOWLY LIFTS INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION SUNDAY. THIS WEAKENING WILL ALSO HELP WEAKEN THE RIDGE OVER THE PANHANDLES. BUT MODELS SHIFT THE AXIS EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE HIGH BEGINS TO SHIFT SOUTH. A FRONT WILL APPROACH THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND ENERGY FROM THE DISSIPATING UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE AREA. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE PANHANDLES.
DID INTRODUCE VCSH FOR LFT AND ARA FOR THE AFTERNOON AS UPPER RIDGE RETROGRADES AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE TRENDS UPWARD. /ISSUED 340 PM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015/ HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CENTERED ALMOST DIRECTLY OVERHEAD TODAY KEEPING CLOUD DEVELOPMENT TO A MINIMUM. GUIDANCE HAS THE RIDGE CONTINUING TO SHIFT TO THE WEST AND WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AND EVENTUALLY REPLACED BY A TROUGH/CLOSED LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN MS VALLEY REGION. A LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL WILL TAKE SHAPE ACROSS THE WESTERN U. AND THE RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WILL STRENGTHEN. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP WINDS AND SEAS CALM FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
819 PM EDT SAT JUN 6 2015 LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES UNDER HIGH PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE CHILLY READINGS ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT AND CRESTS OVER THE REGION SUNDAY.
453 PM EDT SAT JUN 6 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL INTO SUNDAY.
THIS ACTIVITY WILL EVENTUALLY PROPAGATE EAST AS THE LOW LEVEL JET VEERS INTO THE STATE AND SHORT WAVE ENERGY LIFTS INTO THE REGION.
/ISSUED 730 AM EDT SAT JUN 6 2015/ WEAK NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW PERSISTS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD AS GEORGIA REMAINS ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE BROAD BUT MODEST UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. HOWEVER WITH THE RIDGE FAR FROM DOMINANT THERE IS A CHANCE FOR ISOLATED DIURNAL CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS FOR SUNDAY AS THE RIDGE FLATTENS A BIT.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS CENTERED JUST OFF THE OREGON COAST AND NOSING OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. A LOW PRESSURE AREA IS OVER THE GREAT BASIN. SOME WRAP AROUND MOISTURE FROM THIS LOW IS GETTING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GOING OVER NEVADA AND EASTERN CALIFORNIA. THE LOW KICKS OUT TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT SO THAT SUNDAY WILL BE DRY IN ALL AREAS.
a slight chance of showers/storms exist as old cold frontal boundary retreats north and eastward as a warm front which may help initiate some widely isolated activity late tonight as weak 850-hPa WAA commences.
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA WILL WEAKEN AS IT SLOWLY LIFTS INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION SUNDAY. THIS WEAKENING WILL ALSO HELP WEAKEN THE RIDGE OVER THE PANHANDLES. BUT MODELS SHIFT THE AXIS EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE HIGH BEGINS TO SHIFT SOUTH. A FRONT WILL APPROACH THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND ENERGY FROM THE DISSIPATING UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE AREA. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE PANHANDLES.
209 PM MDT SAT JUN 6 2015 SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE LOW IN THE SOUTHWEST CONUS.
1205 PM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015 FOR 18Z TAFS /ISSUED 1040 AM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015/ AMPLIFIED RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. A WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVING AROUND THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE HAS KEPT SHOWERS IN AR/MS GOING OVERNIGHT AND INTO THIS MORNING. TEMPS WILL BE WARMER THAN YESTERDAY AS THE RIDGE SLOWLY KEEPS BUILDING TO THE EAST. THE LOWER LEVELS ARE DRIER TODAY AND MID LEVELS ALSO ARE DRIER AND WARMER SO WILL SEE ISOLATED ACTIVITY AT BEST. A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
1258 PM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015 CU FILED DEVELOPING OVER THE REGION THIS AFTN WILL BE KEPT IN CHECK BY RIDGE ALOFT. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SHOULD HELP KEEP CONVECTION IN CHECK THIS AFTERNOON WITH VFR CONDITIONS. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN A PATTERN OF LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH TONIGHT. SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL TODAY DUE TO A LACK OF CLOUD COVER, SUBSIDENCE FROM HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT, AND A LACK OF A MARINE INFLUENCE TODAY. THIS LACK OF A RETURN FLOW AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL AGAIN COMBINE TO PRODUCE POOR AIR QUALITY OVER LOWER SOUTHEAST TEXAS. RAIN CHANCES ENTER INTO THE FORECAST BEGINNING LATE SUNDAY AS GULF MOISTURE BEGINS TO DEEPEN FROM A CONTINUING FETCH IN THE LOW LEVELS OUT OF THE CARRIBEAN.
SKIES WILL BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY AS CLOUD DEBRIS THIN WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT TO NEAR CALM AS A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE PATTERN CONTINUES OVER THE AREA.
WITH THIS COOLER AIR ALOFT. GOOD MIXING WILL COUNTER THE COOLER TEMPS ALOFT.
STRENGTHENING HURRICANE BLANCA /WHICH HAD CLOUD TOP TEMPS ESTIMATED TO BE -89 C EARLIER TONIGHT/ OFF THE WESTERN MX COAST WILL KEEP THE H5 RIDGE FIRMLY IN PLACE ACROSS TEXAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. CONTINUED TO GO ON THE LOW SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPS GIVEN CONTINUED EVAPOTRANSPIRATION FROM RECENT RAINFALL. WENT A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER FOR MIN TEMPS TONIGHT /THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS/ DUE TO SLIGHTLY STRONGER 925MB WIND FIELD.
615 PM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015 FOR 00Z TAFS /ISSUED 236 PM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015/ THE LOW LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW AND A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HAS LED TO AN INCREASING CAP ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. THE SHORT TERM MODELS KEEP THE RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY. WILL TREND CLOSER TO WARMER GUIDANCE TEMPS FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS.
The mid/upper-level ridge will maintain its grip over the southern Plains, keeping rain chances near zero and temperatures at or just above normal.
207 PM EDT SAT JUN 6 2015 HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES TODAY AND TONIGHT.
CONVERGENCE FROM THIS OUTFLOW ALONG WITH THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT COULD CAUSE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND TO FORM. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WHICH WILL USHER IN SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS FOR SUNDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY GIVING SUNNY DAYS AND CONTINUED WARM WEATHER.
AND SUNDAY QUIET WEATHER TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS EASTWARD OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AN UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO NORTHERN PLAIN SEPARATES THIS QUIET WEATHER TO A VERY ACTIVE PATTERN OVER THE HIGH PLAINS AND ROCKIES. A STRONG SHORT TROUGH OVER MT EARLY THIS MORNING IS PROGGED TO TRACK TOWARD AND OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. HOWEVER BEST FORCING WITH THE LLJ WILL BE AVAILABLE LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OVER THE STATE. A SURFACE WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH OVER THE STATE COULD BE A FOCUS OF THE HEAVIER RAINFALL AMOUNTS. ACTUALLY THE BETTER DYNAMICS WILL BE AVAILABLE SUNDAY AS CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR PRIOR TO THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE IN THE AFTERNOON.
353 PM EDT SAT JUN 6 2015 HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TONIGHT.
611 PM EDT SAT JUN 6 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN LAKES WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST THROUGH SUNDAY.
A WEAK UPPER LOW WILL BRING WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS TO THE COAST AND VALLEYS THIS MORNING.
/ISSUED 354 AM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015/ OVERALL TEMPERATURES ARE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THEY WERE 24 HOURS AGO. MORNING LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE 60S NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER IN WEST TENNESSEE TO THE LOW 70S IN THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER DELTA NEAR AND SOUTH OF MEMPHIS. AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD BE A BIT COOLER THAN YESTERDAY DUE TO CLOUD COVER. TODAY AND SUNDAY A RIDGE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE PLAINS WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST AND DEAMPLIFY. LIKELY INTO THE LOW 90S FOR THE WARMEST LOCATIONS. SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 90S LOOK LIKELY.
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY LARGE POSITIVELY TILTED TROF ALOFT WITH CLOSED LOW CENTERED OVR THE DESERT SW. SFC SHOWS COLD FRONT THRU AND OFF TO THE SE INTO NERN CO. ALTHOUGH THE LOWER LEVELS ARE CURRENTLY CAPPED. UPR TROF AXIS CONTINUES EWD. XXX THROUGH XXX BY SUNDAY NIGHT THE CLOSED LOW WILL HAVE SHEARED OUT AND WE WILL BE LEFT WITH A COL REGION JUST TO OUR SOUTH.
WITH HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND A DRY AIRMASS, ONLY A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF ANY CONVECTION TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION AND THE AIRMASS WILL WARM AND DRY. WEATHER FOR NORTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA EXPECTED TO BE LESS ACTIVE TODAY AND SUNDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EDGES IN OVER THE AREA FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
WV imagery shows the SoCal trough has moved a little NE over the past 24 hours, nudging the upper ridge toward the Great Lakes/MS valley region, leaving West Texas and Southeast new Mexico under SW flow aloft.
349 PM EDT SAT JUN 6 2015 A WEAK COLD FRONT SINKS SOUTH THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
920 PM EDT SAT JUN 6 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN LAKES WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST THROUGH SUNDAY.
WEAK COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE ENE AS A WARM FRONT WITH TEMPS REACHING NEAR 90 DEGREES OVER SE TN.
MEDIUM LINGERING INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE FOR THE EVENING AND PART OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WILL HAVE HIGHEST POPS IN THE MORNING WITH THE HIGHER CONFIDENCE OF 850 JET/MOIST ADV CONVECTION WITH SOMEWHAT LOWER POPS IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THE POTENTIAL REDEVELOPMENT.
A TROUGH EXTENDS SOUTHWEST FROM LOW PRESSURE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND NORTHWEST KANSAS. STRONG HEATING AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 70S EXTEND ACROSS THE AREA WITH MODEST SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. NICELY CURVED HODOGRAPHS WITH IMPRESSIVE DIRECTIONAL SHEAR VALUES IN THE LOWEST 3 KM WOULD SUGGEST A TORNADO THREAT INTITIALLY THEN WE TRANSITION INTO A FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL ALSO BRING HEAVY RAIN THREAT SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH WIND/HAIL THREAT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE CWA THROUGHOUT SUNDAY. DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK AS UPPER RIDGING MOVES OVERHEAD. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION HAS FIRED ALONG A COLD FRONT EXTENDING OUT OF CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA INTO NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
/ISSUED 339 AM CDT Sat Jun 6 2015/ Currently have an upper ridge over the area extending north through the Central US while an upper low slowly inches northeastward from southern CA. SE NM and the higher terrain regions will remain under the western fringe of the ridge and with moist, upslope flow persisting across these areas, could see another round of afternoon/evening convection along and near the mountains. Despite upper ridging in place, high temperatures will be near or slightly below normal given the amount of moisture across the area. The aforementioned upper low move into the NV/CO region Sunday then east around the north side of the ridge through the beginning of the week.
203 PM EDT SAT JUN 6 2015 A WEAK COLD FRONT SINKS SOUTH THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
206 PM PDT SAT JUN 6 2015 Temperatures this weekend will be much warmer than average with afternoon readings in the upper 80s to mid 90s.
HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE HIGHLIGHT IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
LARGE SCALE PATTERN AT 500 MB FEATURES A RIDGE EXTENDING FROM TEXAS UP INTO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND MINNESOTA. A TROUGH WAS LOCATED FROM MONTANA DOWN TO OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. WITH A CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. 300 MB JET MAX OF AROUND 95 KNOTS WAS NOTED AT 00Z TO THE EAST OF THE LOW IN WESTERN ARIZONA. SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY AHEAD OF STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE TO OUR WEST. THE HIGH RESOLUTION CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS DEPICT A VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS. SHOULD LINGER INTO TONIGHT AND THEN DROP OFF LATE TONIGHT AS THE WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES DOWN ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA.
750 PM EDT SAT JUN 6 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES TONIGHT.
AN ANTICYCLONIC SPOKE IN THE UPSTREAM SRN PLAINS RIDGE ADVECTS INTO OUR REGION BY EARLY SUNDAY AND ACTUALLY RAISES MID-TROPOSPHERIC GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHTS A BIT COMPARED TO TODAY. IN THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE. THE CLOSED PORTION OF THE 850 HPA RIDGE CENTER BECOMES ELONGATED NE->SW FROM THE MID- ATLANTIC TO E TEXAS THROUGH MIDDAY SUNDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM NORTHERN MEXICO. DEEPER LAYER SINKING MOTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS RIDGE ACTS TO LIMIT OVERNIGHT RAIN CHANCES. HIGH PRESSURE IS POSITIONED FROM OFF THE SOUTHEAST US COAST TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING FROM THE LOW TO MID 70S.
A SURFACE AND 850MB TROUGH WAS LOCATED FROM EASTERN COLORADO TO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. HERE, CONVECTION SHOULD FIRE ALONG THE TROUGH LINE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING.
311 PM PDT SAT JUN 6 2015 A WEAK UPPER LOW WILL BRING WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS TO THE COAST AND VALLEYS THIS MORNING.
556 PM EDT SAT JUN 6 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL INTO SUNDAY.
19Z water vapor imagery shows a closed low over the southern tip of NV while mid level ridging over the TX big bend extends north through OK and into eastern KS. At the surface, an area of low pressure was gradually deepening over SD with a trough axis reaching south into eastern CO. For tonight, models do not show much in the way of large scale forcing on account of the mid level ridge axis overhead. Additionally the low level jet is progged to nose into eastern NEB and western IA overnight with the stronger warm air advection remaining just north of the forecast area this evening. Therefore kept lows mainly in the lower 70s. For Sunday, a weakening cold front is anticipated to move into the forecast area with moisture pooling along it.
ALTHOUGH CLOUD COVER HAS LIMITED DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND CAPE STILL HAVE SOME CONCERNS ABOUT DEVELOPMENT ALONG AND AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT SO KEPT SOME HIGHER POPS GOING ACROSS THE SOUTH.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
A RIDGE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE ESSENTIALLY THE SAME WEATHER THROUGH 00Z TOMORROW EVENING. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF -TSRA IN FAR NW OK AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD.
852 PM EDT SAT JUN 6 2015 HIGH PRESSURE IS MOVING INTO THE MID ATLANTIC.
THE DIRTY PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE CENTERED IN TEXAS IS INCORPORATING SUBTLE MOISTURE ADVECTION AND CONVERGENCE STRETCHING FROM NORTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS SOUTH/SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE HEART OF CENTRAL MS. ON SUNDAY THE DIRTY PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AFFECTING US TODAY WILL BE DILUTING AS A TANGIBLE FEATURE ALTHOUGH SOME WEAK MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WILL STILL BE LEFT RUNNING ROUGHLY ALONG A NORTH TO SOUTH AXIS NEAR THE MS RIVER. LOCATIONS TODAY THAT HAVE REMAINED LARGELY FREE OF SHOWERS HAVE WARMED INTO THE LOWER 90S WITH HEAT INDICES IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S.
SURFACE ANALYSIS LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE MT/WY/DAKOTAS BORDER WITH A COLD FRONT CROSSING ERN MT ATTM. CHANCES FOR STORMS INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE CWA. THE WRN UPPER LOW WILL GRADUALLY BREAK DOWN AS IT BEGINS THE PHASE IN PROCESS SUNDAY. UPPER WAVES WILL CROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF THE LOW KEEPING LINGERING ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NE WY TO SW SD.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE JUST A TAD WARMER EACH DAY.
THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTH CENTRAL SD. WITH COLD FRONT STRETCHING SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SD INTO WESTERN NEB. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS FLATTENING RIDGE TO THE EAST OF THE REGION. WITH UPPER LOW CUTTING OFF AND WEAKENING OVER THE GREAT BASIN. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S OVER THE HIGHER BLACK HILLS TO THE LOWER 80S OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD.
438 PM EDT SAT JUN 6 2015 HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING EAST OF THE OHIO VALLEY WILL TURN WINDS TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION ON SUNDAY.
/ISSUED 338 AM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015/ UPPER RIDGE WILL DOMINATE AGAIN TODAY WITH WARM/HOT TEMPS AND BREEZY SOUTH WINDS.
BUT COOL LOW PRESSURE ALOFT. OLD MODEL RUNS HAD A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY LURKING OVER THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
332 PM CDT Sat Jun 6 2015 19Z water vapor imagery shows a closed low over the southern tip of NV while mid level ridging over the TX big bend extends north through OK and into eastern KS. At the surface, an area of low pressure was gradually deepening over SD with a trough axis reaching south into eastern CO. For tonight, models do not show much in the way of large scale forcing on account of the mid level ridge axis overhead. Additionally the low level jet is progged to nose into eastern NEB and western IA overnight with the stronger warm air advection remaining just north of the forecast area this evening. Therefore kept lows mainly in the lower 70s. For Sunday, a weakening cold front is anticipated to move into the forecast area with moisture pooling along it.
Attention will then shift to yet another nocturnal jet driven MCS scenario over the Central Plains with eventual support from an approaching cold front.
/ISSUED 333 PM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015/ AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS THE NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
559 PM MDT SAT JUN 6 2015 00Z TAF CYCLE LOW PRESSURE ALOFT IS CURRENTLY MOVING OVER NEVADA/UTAH/ARIZONA. ESPECIALLY FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN. UPPER LOW TO REMAIN TO OUR WEST THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY BEFORE LOSING ITS IDENTITY AND ALLOWING SOME DRIER AIR TO PUSH INTO NORTHWEST TO WEST CENTRAL NM.
BUT COOLER WITH OCCASIONAL STRATUS AND BRISK NORTH WINDS AT TIMES ON THE COAST. BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES TO INTERIOR. BUT WITH A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRES ALOFT. THE RIDGE REACHES PEAK STRENGTH OVER THE REGION SUN INTO MON. WITH WEAK PUSHES INLAND LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING ALONG THE LOWER COLUMBIA SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING. ON TUE MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON PUSHING THE UPPER HIGH CENTER E. WITH THE UPPER RIDGE WEAKENING SOME BY TUE.
However, this cluster of storms will force a cold front into the area tomorrow.
/ISSUED 347 PM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015/ H5 RIDGE CURRENTLY DOMINATING AREA WX SHOULD RETREAT TO THE SW DURING THE EARLY AND MIDDLE PARTS OF THE WEEK ALLOWING A TROF/WEAKNESS TO EVENTUALLY FILL IN ACROSS THE NRN GULF.
333 PM CDT Sat Jun 6 2015 (Tonight and Sunday) Little change is expected in our weather tonight and Sunday, as the upper level ridge over Texas remains in place. With slight warming and drying of the airmass, respective overnight low temperatures and highs Sunday are expected to be about a degree warmer than today.
817 PM EDT SAT JUN 6 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES TONIGHT.
253 PM EDT SAT JUN 6 2015 LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES UNDER HIGH PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE CHILLY READINGS ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT AND CRESTS OVER THE REGION SUNDAY.
145 PM EDT SAT JUN 6 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TODAY.
737 PM EDT SAT JUN 6 2015 HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING EAST OF THE OHIO VALLEY WILL TURN WINDS TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION ON SUNDAY.
120 PM PDT SAT JUN 6 2015 LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SUNDAY WILL BE ANOTHER HOT AND HUMID DAY WITH INCREASING SOUTH WINDS AS THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE AREA REMAINS IN CONTROL. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL FLATTEN AND RETROGRADE EARLY THIS WEEK WITH WEAK UPPER TROUGHING TAKING HOLD OVER OUR AREA.
623 PM EDT SAT JUN 6 2015 HIGH PRESSURE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON. EARLIER THERE WAS A WARM FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS. WITH THE WARM/MOIST AIR AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER ON SUNDAY.