Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
An upper low. This will allow for upper level high pressure over the eastern Pacific to slowly nudge east into California allowing for a warming trend. Temperatures this afternoon are expected to be around 5 degrees warmer compared to yesterday afternoon. it will likely feel even warmer than just the 5 degrees.
A ridge of high pressure will build into our region leading to a warming trend toward the end of the week.
With dew points in the 30s to the lower 40s in most spots, the clear skies and calm winds will help many areas to have a chilly start of the day. Synoptically the upper level low that had been overhead yesterday is now over Northern Nevada. The low will continue to move to the north through the day. At the same time a ridge of high pressure will continue to build toward the coast. With some of the guidance going warmer and some going even cooler, decided to go with similar values to what we should see today.
Lacking this low level focus, rainfall amounts are anticipated to be more diffuse causing flooding concerns to be more localized than widespread.
118 AM EDT Wed Oct 4 2017 High pressure will maintain dry and warm weather today. Upper-level ridge will begin to flatten today as a front sags south through the Northern Great Lakes.
The temperatures at 2 am ranged from the lower and middle 50s along the Cumberland Plateau to the mid 50s to lower 60s elsewhere.
348 AM MDT Wed Oct 4 2017 A closed low over Nevada will shift to the northeast over the next 12 hours, allowing a strong pressure gradient to develop over Utah and western Colorado by mid morning. Jet support remains over the region Thursday but the pressure gradient will ease with the stretching of the low pressure over Idaho. The chance of showers and thunderstorms across SW Colorado will continue into Thursday until a cold front brushes NE Utah and NW Colorado late Thursday.
102 AM EDT Wed Oct 4 2017 With high pressure remaining in control, calm and quiet weather conditions will continue through the TAF period.
Expect skies to remain clear overnight except for some high level clouds over central Oregon associated with an upper low over Nevada. The low moves northeast across Idaho on Wednesday.
Otherwise, southeasterly winds will continue--with the exception of northwest Oklahoma, where northeast to east winds will persist behind a quasi-stationary cold front. A cold front, currently across northwest Oklahoma, is expected to stall this evening. The weak cold front that will move into northern Oklahoma tonight/tomorrow will retreat back north as a ridge aloft rebuilds over the southern Plains.
We will warm up before an upper level low moves into the area from the southwest this afternoon. As temperatures cool overnight some snow could mix-in in the lower elevations like Livingston, but further east and away from the mountain foothills, no snow is expected in the lower elevations. Showers will weaken as the upper level low slowly slides east but a few showers are possible in eastern Montana just before midnight. A warmer night is anticipated given the clouds and showers with day time temperatures in the low 50s cooling off into the mid to upper 30s. Upper level low continues its transition east as the system weakens. Warmer conditions expected with daytime temps climbing into the mid 50s (cooler west of Billings and warmer east of Billings).
150 AM EDT Wed Oct 4 2017 Did a quick update to fine tune the T/Td grids per the latest obs and trends - capturing the ongoing 10 to 15 degree ridge to valley temperature split. The nighttime microphysics images are just now highlighting the barest start of fog in the lower spots through the Cumberland Valley. Surface analysis across the region features the dome of high pressure continuing to be anchored over the Appalachian Range and thus keeping eastern Kentucky under mostly clear skies, above normal temps, and relatively light winds. Otherwise, a warm, dry, and relatively cloud free forecast is on tap under a stubborn ridge of high pressure. The first couple of days will still be quiet as a weakening mid/upper level ridge persists over the southeast CONUS.
A strong 700 mb wind max across central Wisconsin will bring quick drying later this morning and afternoon behind the departing cold front. Cooler temperatures are expected later today and tonight.
Strong high pressure remains in place along the Eastern Seaboard, with northeast flow expected to continue overnight. The flow may briefly weaken as the gradient relaxes slightly at the approach of a sharp trough axis moving across Southern Florida on Thursday afternoon.
With the low level upslope flow continuing, the low clouds will be slowest to burn off over far southeast Wyoming around Cheyenne.
247 AM EDT Wed Oct 4 2017 High pressure exits today.
321 AM MDT Wed Oct 4 2017 Upper low covers the northern Great Basin with a moderate southwest flow aloft over Colorado. Meanwhile, broad high pressure aloft covers much of the South Central U. This will result in a denver cyclone to develop and at least scour out the stratus Over Denver and areas to the east by this afternoon. With the strong downslope southeast flow, this will allow temperatures to rise into the lower 70s from Denver Eastward but then cooler further east under the persistent stratus deck. Interesting, last few versions of HRRR showing some thunderstorm development under this convergence with the cyclone and some weak instability. As the upper low over Idaho lifts across the Northern Rockies, a jet max will push down into northwest Colorado and into Wyoming Thursday.
Lingering snow cover will keep temperatures somewhat cooler today over part of Phillips County today. Upper low that is currently over Nevada will drift northeast today and elongate. The leading edge of this low will move across Montana tonight.
/BB/ As the upper & surface ridging extending from our area up into the mid-Atlantic states wedges in from the east-northeast overnight, expect drier air to filter in. This will also result in slightly cooler lows, from west to east falling into the upper 50s to low 60s. Might be slightly warmer in some areas due to some pressure gradient & light winds overnight, but we should cool off nicely. Only made some small tweaks overnight to hourly temperatures & maybe a touch warmer in the east due to some light winds around. /DC/ Prior discussion below: Tonight and Wednesday: High pressure at the surface and aloft will maintain quiet conditions across the forecast area tonight through Wednesday afternoon.
400 AM EDT Wed Oct 04 2017 High pressure will extend from the western Atlantic to the central Appalachians for the next few days. 00Z upper air data indicate the sub-tropical/mid to upper level ridge has split, with one center over the VA's and another over the lower MS Valley. A shear axis, and embedded upper level perturbation now over the Carolinas, has developed in the break in the ridge. This shear axis will linger over the sern US, while a broad trough aloft develops/amplifies across sern Canada.
400 AM EDT Wed Oct 4 2017 High pressure over the region will control the weather through the end of the week. ridging south over the local area into the Carolinas. Aloft, Broad upper ridge remains oriented from SW to NE from the western Gulf of Mexico into the Mid-south region. Highs again slightly warmer than yesterday as thicknesses creep up and airmass continues to moderate. High pressure across the area will slowly move south and east.
Precipitation may begin to taper off tomorrow afternoon as the upper ridge center moves slightly north and the remains of the frontal boundary currently to our west begin to lift north as well. Precipitation and abundant cloud cover will keep temps in the low 70s tomorrow.
Surface cold front will meander around the region tonight and Wednesday morning before slowly dissipating. /Issued 423 PM CDT Tue Oct 3 2017/ Cold front made a slow southward progression today before coming to a halt near the Canadian River valley.
402 AM EDT Wed Oct 4 2017 High pressure over the region will control the weather through the end of the week. ridging south over the local area into the Carolinas. Aloft, Broad upper ridge remains oriented from SW to NE from the western Gulf of Mexico into the Mid-south region. Highs again slightly warmer than yesterday as thicknesses creep up and airmass continues to moderate. High pressure across the area will slowly move south and east.
Return flow around the high has kept winds out of the south in our region with generally fair weather. Some showers and thunderstorms have developed across far parts of western KY and southern IL along a Theta-E ridge/axis, but all of that activity should stay west of the region for the afternoon and evening. Upper level ridge currently centered over the Tennessee Valley will begin to slowly pivot and drift southwestward through the short term period. Clouds and precipitation associated with the 850mb/700mb Theta-E axis on the western side of the upper level ridge will also begin to pivot during this timeframe, and will take on a more east- west orientation than its current north-south orientation. 850mb/700mb Theta-E ridge/axis will still be across northern fringes of the CWA Thursday, but will gradually lift northward through the day.
Relatively pleasant day across the area on Wednesday with high pressure across the area. High temperatures will rebound nicely in dry airmass into the low to mid 60s.
326 AM MDT Wed Oct 4 2017 Current surface analysis shows high pressure centered over far northwest SD. Upper level analysis shows weakened low pressure moving quickly east across northern MN. Another area of low pressure is located over NV, within western US trough. Mostly clear skies and light winds across much of the area early this morning has allowed temps to drop near or below freezing across much of the area, except for portions of south central SD. As high pressure moves east of the region, winds will become southeasterly, breezy by the afternoon across northeast WY and portions of western SD.
118 AM EDT Wed Oct 4 2017 High pressure extending into the area from the northeast will shift slowly eastward over the next few days. Upper ridge centered to our NW. Upper energy rotating clockwise around the eastern periphery of the ridge will move WSW across our region today, but atmosphere too dry to support precipitation for our forecast area, with precipitable water values less than one inch and a strong cap noted on forecast soundings.
424 AM EDT Wed Oct 4 2017 A cold front will approach the region from the northwest today and stretch out east-west across the area tonight.
142 AM EDT Wed Oct 4 2017 Showers and even a few thunderstorms will become more numerous later tonight into Wednesday as a cold front sags into the area and then stalls.
254 AM PDT Wed Oct 4 2017 Clearing skies and lighter winds will prevail today as low pressure departs western Nevada. A lingering area of showers across eastern Pershing County will dissipate and shift eastward this morning as an upper low departs the region. A warming trend will develop into the start of the weekend as upper level ridging off the west coast nudges inland.
1249 AM CDT Wed Oct 4 2017 The cold front that brought us widespread rain and thunderstorms the past couple nights has pushed south of the area, and cool northerly winds continue to filter in behind it. By midday Thursday, the cold front should have lifted back into the area.
A warming and drying trend is on tap for Northwest California to close out the week as high pressure slowly builds eastward towards the West Coast.
550 AM CDT Wed Oct 4 2017 A cold front currently extending from eastern Wisconsin to northern Missouri will sag slowly southward today. Given abundant cloud cover and showers, high temperatures today will be several degrees cooler than yesterday. Further southeast where less precip is expected, highs will once again reach the lower 80s south of the I-70 corridor.
225 AM EDT Wed Oct 04 2017 High pressure will extend from the western Atlantic to the central Appalachians for the next few days. An area of high pressure at the surface and aloft will maintain dry and seasonably cool conditions across central NC overnight. Quiet weather with stacked dry ridge over the area and seasonable temperatures today will be with us a bit longer. With the high overhead, another mostly sunny day is on tap, with light winds and highs a couple of degrees warmer as we cut off the cool air advection and the airmass begins to modify.
/issued 817 PM EDT Tue Oct 3 2017/ High pressure aloft remains centered over the south-central U. this evening with low pressure off the Florida east coast. At the surface, strong high pressure continues to ridge southward over the region from just off the northeast U. coast while an area of low pressure over the southwestern Caribbean Sea continues to show signs of organization.
416 AM EDT Wed Oct 4 2017 High pressure will maintain dry and warm weather today. Upper-level ridge will begin to flatten today as a front sags south through the Northern Great Lakes.
The moderate ridging over the Rockies and high plains today will be subjected to short wave energy moving across southern Canada. This will create modest height falls, and combined with weak impulse energy under the ridge from the southwest and relatively high dewpoints (moisture), will produce some thunderstorms late today through the evening. Freezing levels are fairly high, and since forcing is not that special, we feel large hail is not much of a threat today. Convection will push east overnight with a cooler more stable air mass moving in late.
1034 PM EDT Tue Jun 20 2017 High pressure tonight. Tonight will be dominated by high pressure with dry conditions and light flow. Temperatures Wednesday will range from the lower 80s north to the upper 80s south.
An upper ridge remains anchored over the Desert SW this afternoon while newly formed Tropical Storm Cindy was taking shape over the northern Gulf of Mexico.
858 PM EDT Tue Jun 20 2017 An upper level trough will gradually shift eastward across the Great Lakes through tonight.
Mdls prog warmer 850mb temps on Wed and have adjusted max temps upward slightly across all but far nern portions of the CWA.
A few afternoon showers and storms are possible along the Highway 77 corridor and coastal plains Wednesday afternoon.
759 PM EDT Tue Jun 20 2017 Weak high pressure will slide south of the commonwealth through Wednesday afternoon. A deep upper level trough will approach the region later this week and draw a plume of deep tropical moisture north from the Gulf Coast region.
This does not appear to be a strong cold front, but more a wind switch.
1139 PM CDT Tue Jun 20 2017 Large ridge continues over the Desert Southwest with abundant warm air extending up the west coast and into the central plains. Gulf of Alaska closed low pushing a cold front onshore in the Pacific Northwest. Hudson Bay low and wave rounding it into the Great Lakes then into the northeast CONUS Cold frontal boundary along the Atlantic Coast. Backdoor cold front from north of oax to vtn. Ring of fire to the southwest and upper low breaking down ridge over western Canada as Gulf of Alaska low moves into south central Canada tomorrow this will bring a stronger wave along the South Dakota border Wednesday night with slight chances of thunderstorms retained.
Tomorrow should be nearly a carbon copy of today, but with a better shot at SHRA/TSRA tomorrow evening across our northern third as a low amplitude short wave trough passing by to our north.
Currently, the upper levels of the atmosphere are characterized by an expansive anticyclone spinning over the Desert Southwest with a broad ridge in place nosing up into southwestern Canada. This feature is providing energy for a weak surface cold front that is currently moving through NE and should eventually make its way into northeastern KS vicinity by this evening. As a weak embedded wave currently over central NE vicinity approaches the forecast area, it will act to reinforce the low level convergence in the area. Highs today are hot once again topping out in the low to mid 90s. Southerly winds increase tomorrow as the lee trough strengthens and WAA will help push temps a bit higher into the mid to upper 90s.
1133 PM CDT Tue Jun 20 2017 Sufficient elevated instability and wind shear is present to allow scattered showers and a few storms to linger this evening, well ahead of an approaching weak cold front.
1132 PM CDT Tue Jun 20 2017 Transitionary period as upper ridge over the western CONUS flattens and strong near zonal flow develops across the northern plains and upper Midwest.
Coulston Cooler temperatures are expected Wednesday, although dry and breezy conditions will continue. Drier conditions are then expected later tonight into Wednesday as zonal flow aloft continues and broad mid- to upper-level troughing becomes established over much of western and central Canada, and the adjacent northern tier states, including Montana.
High pressure will remain in place across the eastern Great Basin into Wednesday. A series of dry cold fronts will start a gradual cooling trend after Wednesday, primarily for northern portions of the forecast area. Combined with some brief rainfall, this helped cool off some areas from the record or near record highs from this afternoon, though temperatures overnight should remain quite warm under the strong ridge and lingering cloud cover.
An upper level trough tracking across western Canada has weakened the ridging over the region.
Seeing isolated thunderstorms across far southeast Oregon this evening out ahead of the cold front. Passage of the cold front this evening will bring a brief increase in surface winds across open terrain, though higher elevation rangeland will keep breezy conditions through the night.
959 PM EDT Tue Jun 20 2017 Weak high pressure will slide south of the Commonwealth through Wednesday afternoon. A deep upper level trough will approach the region later this week and draw a plume of deep tropical moisture north from the Gulf Coast region.
913 PM CDT Tue Jun 20 2017 Sufficient elevated instability and wind shear is present to allow scattered showers and a few storms to linger this evening, well ahead of an approaching weak cold front.
710 PM EDT Tue Jun 20 2017 An upper level trough will gradually shift eastward across the Great Lakes through tonight.
VFR conditions largely expected through this period as a weak ridge holds.
Ongoing storms will likely be evident to start the extended periods as the first cold front exits the local area.
515 PM MDT Tue Jun 20 2017 Current surface analysis shows stationary front near the Black Hills, with high pressure centered over northeast ND. Upper level analysis continues to show high pressure centered over eastern AZ, with ridging to the north across the intermountain west. Could see a stronger storm or two over western areas in the evening, then possibly a strong to severe storm later tonight to the east of the Black Hills, near the nose of the low level jet. Cold front over the Pacific NW will move quickly across the Rockies tonight and into western portions of the area Wednesday morning before stalling out over western SD during the day. Highs on Wednesday will range from the lower 80s over the Black Hills to near 95 over south central SD.
1122 PM CDT Tue Jun 20 2017 High pressure remained over the eastern Ozarks where lower humidity was present. Main emphasis will be with Tropical Storm Cindy and its moisture coming up from the south along with a strong cold front approaching from the north late this week.
620 PM CDT Tue Jun 20 2017 Transitionary period as upper ridge over the western CONUS flattens and strong near zonal flow develops across the northern plains and upper Midwest.
At the surface, high pressure will exit the region to the east tonight as low pressure approaches from the west. Overnight low temperatures will range from the mid 50s east to the lower 60s west.
High pressure now building into our forecast area from the Dakotas/southern Canada. This high will slide southeast across the area overnight for partly cloudy skies. Given the rainfall that occurred today/moist ground, and mostly clear skies/light winds tonight, should see areas of fog, mainly over central WI where the ridge axis/lightest winds will reside longest. Otherwise, looking for lows in the middle 40s in the Sand Country of central WI, to the lower/middle 50s elsewhere. For Wednesday, low pressure crossing the Dakotas will bring a push of warm air advection and moisture transport into the area by afternoon for a chance of elevated shower/thunderstorm activity. Showers and thunderstorms will become likely Wednesday night as moisture transport increases ahead/along of a cold front pushing into the area from MN.
However this higher theta-e axis could be in response to the ongoing storm development. Overnight low temperatures stay in the lower 70s around the Hill City area with lows in the lower to mid 60s across far eastern Colorado tonight.
748 PM EDT Tue Jun 20 2017 High pressure tonight. Tonight will be dominated by high pressure with dry conditions and light flow. Temperatures Wednesday will range from the lower 80s north to the upper 80s south.
1029 PM EDT Tue Jun 20 2017 Weak high pressure will slide south of the Commonwealth through Wednesday afternoon. A deep upper level trough will approach the region later this week and draw a plume of deep tropical moisture north from the Gulf Coast region.
A recent surface analysis showed high pressure across the Tennessee Valley with a weak area of low pressure across the lower Great Lakes. A weak front will push south from the lower Great Lakes into central Indiana and western Ohio. For Wednesday, dry and warmer weather remains on tap as the high pressure center heads off to the east and we get more of a southerly flow into the region.
622 PM CDT Tue Jun 20 2017 High pressure remained over the eastern Ozarks where lower humidity was present. Main emphasis will be with Tropical Storm Cindy and its moisture coming up from the south along with a strong cold front approaching from the north late this week.
915 PM EDT Tue Jun 20 2017 A cold front will push east of the region tonight as a weather disturbance lifts north across the area. Low pressure will lift north through Quebec tonight and Wednesday.
The latest surface map features broad high pressure across the mid-Mississippi Valley, with Tropical Storm Cindy located across the central Gulf of Mexico. Aloft, a strong ridge remains poised across the Desert Southwest, with troughing in the northeastern quadrant of the CONUS. Eastern Kentucky has been enjoying dry weather, with temperatures in the low to mid 80s and dew points down as low as the lower 50s in places at times. Dry weather will continue through the rest of the short term, as high pressure remains nosed in from the east southeast through the column. Tonight will feature a mostly clear night, with lows ranging from the mid 50s in some of the cooler valleys, and lower 60s on the ridges. Wednesday will feature a warmer day, with highs in the mid 80s, and dew points also a bit higher.
633 PM CDT Tue Jun 20 2017 Large ridge continues over the Desert Southwest with abundant warm air extending up the west coast and into the central plains. Gulf of Alaska closed low pushing a cold front onshore in the Pacific Northwest. Hudson Bay low and wave rounding it into the Great Lakes then into the northeast CONUS Cold frontal boundary along the Atlantic Coast. Backdoor cold front from north of oax to vtn. Ring of fire to the southwest and upper low breaking down ridge over western Canada as Gulf of Alaska low moves into south central Canada tomorrow this will bring a stronger wave along the South Dakota border Wednesday night with slight chances of thunderstorms retained.
I do believe we'll have several spots that will reach into the low 90s and with dew points expected to begin increasing tomorrow (back into the mid-60s), heat index values will also reach the mid-90s for some.
Will take a while for the higher seas to reach near shore waters.