Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Early this morning, a mid-level trough was noted extending from Manitoba down into the Northern Plains. At the surface, a low is seen just east of the Rockies and is expected to move east across southern Kansas this morning with support from the aforementioned mid-level trough. An associated weak cold front will advance across northeast Kansas mid-morning with no precipitation expected with this passing.
320 PM EST Wed Dec 28 2016 High pressure centered over WV will slide east and move off the Mid Atlantic coast tonight.
250 PM MST Wed Dec 28 2016 Upper air analysis shows broad upper trough across the north central CONUS with the main axis over the Dakotas.
Winds have turned to the north this afternoon as a weak cold front made its way through the area. While long range models are agreeing on the cold, they are still having difficulties with the next long wave trough passage in both time and space for determining precip.
Weak high pressure over the region will drift East Tonight, as a cold front approaches from the Northwest. Cold front will move Southeast across region Thursday. A cold front is forecast to be just south of the region by the start of the short term period, with much drier and cooler air filtering into the area from the northwest.
West to southwest winds aob 12 kts will gradually veer to the northwest this evening as a surface pre-frontal trough passes through. A cold front will then move southwest across area terminals early Thursday morning, reaching KMAF around 06Z, KHOB around 07Z, KINK and KFST around 08Z, and KCNM and KPEQ around 09Z. A cold front will move south through the region tonight with gusty northeast winds behind it. In the meantime an upper level trough moving across the northern states will drop a cold front south through the forecast area tonight resulting in temperatures returning to near normal by Thursday morning.
High pressure will then gradually build into the forecast area tonight through Thursday, keeping most of the area dry with continued gusty west winds and near to slightly above normal temperatures. The surface pressure gradient will also get stronger ahead of the approaching Canadian cold front, which will help bring strong westerly mid level winds down to the surface.
1020 AM MST Wed Dec 28 2016 Current surface analysis shows a cold front from central ND to northwest Neb, moving quickly south and east. Upper level analysis shows trof axis over the western Dakotas moving quickly eastward with strong upper jet over the area. Slightly cooler air in place for Thursday, with highs in the mid 20s to mid 30s under mainly sunny skies.
06Z surface data has high pressure from the Ohio Valley into the Great Lakes. The strong gradient behind low pressure over Ontario will keep windy conditions over the area Thursday and Thursday night.
The 12Z models continue to develop a strong pressure gradient in the wake of the cold front this evening.
101 PM EST Wed Dec 28 2016 Quiet conditions will continue today ahead of a cold front that will bring a mix of rain and snow tonight.
For tomorrow night a ribbon of high pressure moves through, so will stick with light winds and a dry forecast.
A warm front is currently analyzed approximately along a west to east line from Clarksdale to Columbus Mississippi. The front is expected to continue to lift north during the morning and afternoon hours, with a chance for thunder along the warm front. This feature coupled with an approaching cold front and active STJ will allow for low level Gulf moisture to surge back north. Cloud cover in the south and breezy northwest winds in the north will keep tonight's lows above freezing areawide.
As this trough moves over the Ohio Valley by tomorrow and becomes slightly negatively tilted, it will bring northwest upper air flow and ridging into the High Plains. Overnight, a cooler air mass enters the region, but with increased winds, lows should stay in the mid to upper 20s, with some teens in the northwest.
336 PM EST Wed Dec 28 2016 A cold front will move across the area on Thursday, with periods of rain and snow.
Broad 500 mb trough over the Pac NW into the N Plains. Better 850 mb cooling and steeper lapse rates in the lower levels will mean a bit better chance of bringing in a bit higher winds to the sfc. High pressure over the area Thursday night.
An associated cold frontal boundary was advancing southeast through Nebraska with pressure rises around 2 mb behind the front. The upper trough deepens to our east and in a tight surface pressure gradient, northwest winds will remain steady/gusty through the overnight hours. The strongest winds look to subside by late afternoon when the lowest relative humidity values will be realized.
105 PM EST Wed Dec 28 2016 High pressure will be situated east of the area today.
237 PM CST Wed Dec 28 2016 Weak cold front currently moving through the region with all observation sites now reporting northwest winds in its wake. Afternoon mid-level clouds this afternoon should clear overnight as high pressure begins building across the High Plains and points east. Quiet weather to persist for the remainder of the week as aforementioned high pressure remains in control.
The low probability does not justify the inclusion of a TEMPO group, but if they do move in, it should be relatively short-lived as winds will shift to a drier southwesterly flow this morning. A cold front will move through the area today with northerly winds areawide by mid-late afternoon after this front moves through.
255 PM CST Wed Dec 28 2016 The cold front has pushed into SW OK this afternoon, with dewpoints behind it dropping into the low 20s. Then, thru the day Sat, another cold front will move into the region thanks to a mid to upper trough passing over the upper midwest. For now, the highest rain chances appear along and east of I35 within the better moisture axis.
High pressure will become established across the region though much of the remainder of the week, allowing inversion conditions across most valleys. Overnight mins were warmer compared to previous nights due in part to the cloud cover and a generally warmer airmass. This warmer start to the day should allow for warmer afternoon maxes across most areas, especially with mostly sunny skies this afternoon. Will make a minor update to adjust MaxT mainly across the higher terrain for today.
The long-wave upper-level pattern across CONUS this evening consists of a ridge centered over the West Coast and a trough extended south from the Hudson Bay low. Thursday the ridge drifts east to bring in warmer air aloft, but a cold start to the day - due to overnight cooling from clear skies - and the lack of mixing due to light winds will bring about a mild day, but slightly cooler than Wednesday and but closer to normal.
North winds will affect parts of the lower Colorado River Valley as well.
241 PM EST Wed Dec 28 2016 A cold front will bring a mix of rain and snow to the area tonight and early Thursday.
1230 PM EST Wed Dec 28 2016 Quiet conditions will continue today ahead of a cold front that will bring a mix of rain and snow tonight.
and Thursday An upper trough will approach the area this afternoon and evening, producing gusty south surface winds and above normal temperatures.
320 PM EST Wed Dec 28 2016 A cold front is expected to bring a brief period of rain and snow to areas mainly east of Interstate 69 later this evening into the early overnight. Mainly dry and turning cooler and breezy otherwise tonight into Thursday morning.
The fog is expected to be quickly scoured out a couple of hours after sunrise courtesy of the passage of a cold front, which will also produce scattered showers within the BRO CWFA Thursday morning, with the precipitation becoming much more isolated Thursday afternoon and ending by the start of Thursday evening.
This system in tandem with an upper-level jet streak developing from the northern Inter-mountain Region to Ohio Valley will contribute to considerable amplification of a broader-scale trough east of the Mississippi Valley during the later half of the work week. Strong gradient flow in the low levels will continue tonight through much of the day Thursday, yielding breezy to windy conditions (especially Thursday afternoon). High temperatures on Thursday will be somewhat cooler than previous days --but still above normal-- and in the mid 30s north to lower 40s south.
250 PM CST Wed Dec 28 2016 A very warm day today despite high clouds over the region, thanks to a combination of downsloping westerly flow and compressional warming ahead of an approaching cold front. The cold front, which is currently just south of Amarillo, will continue its southward push this afternoon and evening. Thus, lows overnight will be cooler than last night, particularly for locations north of I-10, where temperatures are expected to drop into the 30s. Thursday will be much cooler behind the front, with highs ranging from the upper 40s across portions of Southeast New Mexico and higher terrain to mainly 50s elsewhere. These temperatures will be roughly 20-30 degrees cooler than today.
28/18Z TAF CYCLE Warmer air lifting NWD over the colder airmass at the SFC is resulting in widespread low clouds/patchy fog/drizzle ovr the FA. Conds wl rapidly improve fm the NW overnight as drier and cooler air spreads into the region and persists into Thu mrng. Highs in the low to mid 50s are expected Thursday, with widespread lows at or below the freezing mark Thursday night.
1228 PM EST Wed Dec 28 2016 Clouds will start to increase this evening ahead of an approaching low pressure system, followed a couple hours later by rain and MVFR vis/ cigs. W-NW Winds will likely be gusting to around 25 kts behind the cold front tomorrow.
The mean layer ridge (see CIMSS analysis) persists over the Gulf of Mexico, although its integrity has been eroded. Temperatures are in the lower 80s with dewpoints in the lower 70s. An area of showers persists west- southwest of the Lower Keys. The mid-latitude cyclone currently digging southeast through the upper Plains will pivot through the Great lakes Thursday and Thursday night. Ridging in the wake of this storm system will sharpen through the Rockies, supporting a high pressure dome with an artic tap on its eastern flank.
352 PM EST Wed Dec 28 2016 A cold front is expected to bring a brief period of rain and snow to areas mainly east of Interstate 69 later this evening into the early overnight. Mainly dry and turning cooler and breezy otherwise tonight into Thursday morning.
Low level winds will be increasing from the northwest to north as a weak cold front moves through the area later this morning. Somewhat cooler air invades the region tonight but with winds staying up some, we shouldn't see overnight lows spiking downward quite as hard as the past few nights. Thursday will be somewhat cooler than today with highs topping out in the mid 40s to near 50. Low level downslope flow will be increasing during the afternoon and overnight hours as upper level ridging over the western states builds back over the central Plains.
Winds will remain light out of the north-northeast around 5- 10 knots as high pressure stretches across northern Florida. The high shifts south on Thursday and the winds become more westerly at 10-15 knots as a cold front approaches the area.
1228 PM CST Wed Dec 28 2016 A mild and breezy day ahead as a low pressure system over eastern SD moves across southern MN this morning and western WI early this afternoon. A more valid precipitation signal is expected later this morning and through the afternoon as a small band of flurries/ sprinkles/light snow progress across the FA on the back side of the low pressure system. In addition, westerly winds will increase behind the low. Modified the highs using bias corrected EC guidance along with MOSGuidance. It will be a mild night with lows in the lower to middle 20s.
As this trough moves over the Ohio Valley by tomorrow and becomes slightly negatively tilted, it will bring northwest upper air flow and ridging into the High Plains. Overnight, a cooler air mass enters the region, but with increased winds, lows should stay in the mid to upper 20s, with some teens in the northwest. Thursday will be somewhat cooler than today with highs topping out in the mid 40s to near 50. Low level downslope flow will be increasing during the afternoon and overnight hours as upper level ridging over the western states builds back over the central Plains.
1106 AM CST Wed Dec 28 2016 A jet max over the eastern Pacific moves over the northern plains deepening an upper level trough extending down to the surface as a cold frontal boundary over northern Nebraska. Ahead of this boundary southwesterly winds advance a weak thermal ridge over the area this afternoon resulting in temperatures slightly higher than model guidance indicates with highs in the low 50s. This cold front will push through the area late Wednesday into Thursday morning shifting the winds to the NW.
Will keep the High Wind Warning as is with no changes expected. Some llvl instability is resulting in brief snow flurries/snow showers across the high valleys and eastern plains this afternoon.
Mid/upper level trough will slide southeast into the Ohio Valley over the next 18-24 hours putting us into a northwest flow regime through the short term period. At the surface a cold front extends from low pressure centered over north central Manitoba generally southward to a second low near STL, then southwestward into the southern plains. This cold frontal boundary will pass from west to east across the Commonwealth overnight and through eastern Kentucky late tonight, clearing eastern most counties by around dawn Thursday.
1250 PM MST Wed Dec 28 2016 18Z Water Vapor imagery/RAP analysis indicated short wave trough sliding into to southern Nebraska. A secondary cold front had initially stalled near the KS/NE line this morning and with afternoon heating and mixing strong northerly winds have developed across the region which have somewhat masked its position. To start off, there are a few cold fronts that will pass through the region.
1256 PM EST Wed Dec 28 2016 High pressure exiting today.
A warm front moved across the state last night and this morning, bringing warmer air and gusty westerly winds to our area. In addition, a cold front is forecast to enter northwestern ND early this evening and sweep southeast across the state.
By midday things will change considerably as a h7 trof and h5 pva moves toward the area along with a surface boundary approaching our western CWFA by 20-21z.
1213 PM CST Wed Dec 28 2016 H5 analysis from 00z tonight has a broad low amplitude pattern across the lower 48. Winds INVOF of the trough were westerly and northwesterly overnight. Strong H85 winds are present behind the trough, however, cool air advection is weak today, so mixing potential is marginal. This yielded highs in the lower to middle 40s in the south and eastern CWA vs. For tonight: High pressure will build into Wyoming and the western panhandle. Wind will continue to be on the breezy to windy side Thursday, as a tight pressure gradient between higher pressure across the Rockies and low pressure moving across Canada. The gradient quickly relaxes by Thursday afternoon as high pressure builds eastward from the Rockies.
/Today/ Surface cold front has pushed south of the area, however the front aloft has stalled across the CWA. Therefore still have some warmer temps aloft across the south and west, with cooler temps to the north and east. Therefore have nudged temps across the south and west a degree or two higher with mostly sunny skies and dry conditions expected as high pressure builds into the state. Slightly cooler temps across the north into the mid/upper 50s, but still above average for this time of year.
A trough of low pressure moving through western states mainly north of us will bring a few showers and thunderstorms to the area later today and tonight, but many locations will miss out. Otherwise, we continue to see well above average heights and thicknesses for late October as we bounce between zonal flows under lows lifting through northern tier states alternating with strong high pressure through the desert southwest and northern Mexico. Recent record and near record high temperatures will back off a few degrees with the current system, then high pressure brings near record highs back the second half of the week.
Tuesday will have sunshine fading behind increasing clouds ahead of the upper trough approaching from the central Plains.
Today will be another mild day with a long-wave upper ridge in place with the axis over Montana. The ridge is currently anchored by a broad area of high pressure centered around Texas. However the broad trough in eastern Canada will exercise some minor influence for us - tempering temperatures to around normal today. The closed low Pacific storm system swings north along the Northwest coast and will be off Vancouver Island Monday night and Tuesday. The trough movement will effectively push the local ridge axis east of Montana. Expect another pleasant Fall day with highs a bit warmer than Monday.
3AM temps are in the middle 40s to lower 50s, much warmer than the previous two nights. This will probably have little effect on the high temps which are forecast to be in the upper 70s to lower 80s today. A ridge over much of the central U. Even with the warming 850 temps, lows will get to similar values as previous nights, in the lower to upper 40s. This will advect slightly cooler air into the region and keep highs around 80 but down into the middle 70s in NE Alabama and southern middle TN.
If GFS/ECMWF verify then stiff east winds, low cloudiness, and steady rain would likely result in temps holding in the 40s roughly from I-88 northward (though probably a bit warmer near the lake). A fairly large temp gradient is expected near the track of the low, with GFS/ECMWF favoring 60s in our far southern counties. Should the farther north solutions pan out, then highs would be warmer farther north with rain more spotty.
Models indicating low level moisture is fairly high with temps/dewpoints in the lower 30s/upper 20s.
Tuesday will feel rather chilly with a brisk northwest wind and maximum temperatures in the lower to middle 40s. High pressure comes late Tuesday night with dry sinking air.
227 AM PDT Mon Oct 24 2016 Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue through this afternoon as a weak low pressure trough moves across the region. Fair and warmer midweek as high pressure rebuilds aloft. Another low pressure trough will bring more clouds.
High pressure, at the surface and upper levels, will continue to control the weather pattern for the first half of the week.
An upper ridge was over the Rockies. Highs will range from the lower to middle forties across far northern Minnesota to the lower fifties from the Brainerd Lakes into northwest Wisconsin. The high will still be close enough to provide light winds. We expect lows from the lower to middle twenties in the Arrowhead to upper twenties to lower thirties most other areas.
The only concern for the evening update is the potential for gusty winds in the vicinity of the Pine Ridge overnight. This should remain confined to the higher terrain, so do not believe any highlights will be necessary but will need to monitor trends to see if this is likely to spread into lower elevations around CDR/AIA as well. Varying amounts of high cloudiness will continue to stream over the CWA through Monday ahead of a large upper trough/low off the west coast.
1128 PM MDT Sun Oct 23 2016 Flat upper ridge rebuilding over the region today, bringing lighter winds and continued mild temps to most locations. On Monday, ridge shifts east with increasing upper level moisture west of the Continental Divide as upper trough continues to move into the Great Basin. The upper disturbance will continue east on Tuesday moving into Kansas, while high pressure builds over Utah.
A dry cold front was sitting just to our north early this morning and will move south through the region around sunrise. This front will usher in cooler, but seasonable temps for today. Some of the cooler, sheltered locations over southern Indiana and east central KY could see some patchy frost early Tues morning.
This cooler air aloft, along with lake surface temperatures around 10-11C, will allow for delta-T values in the 15 to 17C range. may continue to see increased cloud cover, but the cooler 850mb temperatures for lake effect rain showers will remain over the east. Another feature inhibiting shower potential over the west will be subsidence associated with a surface/upper level ridge sliding into the area through the day Monday. Lows tonight will be in the low 30s with highs Monday expected to be mainly in the 40s. The biggest questions related to type over mainly the higher terrain of the central and west. A tightening gradient between a deep low pressure system moving through Quebec and a high pressure ridge building into the Plains will lead to a period of NW winds gusting to 30 knots over eastern Lake Superior tonight into Monday.
242 AM MDT Mon Oct 24 2016 Early morning WV imagery and RAP analysis shows large scale ridging continuing to dominate the pattern across the central US. At the surface as front is stalled along the front range, with high pressure centered over the northern Mississippi River Valley extending south and west towards our CWA.
As the trough moves farther to our our northeast northwest flow aloft kicks in, albeit brief, and helps to steepen the lapse rates with weak cold pool interaction, so more cloud cover is expected today. Continued onshore flow will help to increase the low-level moisture for tonight and when combined with the increase cloud cover, not allowing for deeper mixing, moisture will be able to pool nicely tonight.
Moist southwesterly flow ahead of deepening upper level low off the west coast will keep mainly mid to high level clouds across the area today. The best chance for showers favors the higher terrain of Southwest Idaho and the Western Magic Valley. There could also be enough instability for thunderstorms again favoring the higher terrain. Latest guidance is significantly lower on QPF amounts for Tuesday as the cold front stalls out near the Idaho/Oregon border and the moisture plume from California coast gets cut off. Our CWA will remain under southwest flow aloft between an upper level trough off the coast and an upper-level ridge over central North America.
Deep layer ridge keeping things dry and rather warm again today. We'll start out with temps in the 40s at daybreak, but a quick warm up is expected with highs rising into the low 80s in most locations, which is back to above normal. Lows tonight will be a tad warmer (mid 40s to low 50s) as radiational cooling will not be as strong and due to the slight increase in dew points with the dissipating boundary.
An upper level trough will deepen slightly from New England down into the mid-Atlantic states. This will push a dry cold front into central Alabama and Georgia by this evening. Locally, deep layer ridging and a very dry airmass will remain in place with light northerly winds. After a cool start to the day, max temperatures are expected to warm into the lower to mid 80s.
151 AM EDT Mon Oct 24 2016 Cooler weather can be expected in the wake of a cold front moving through this morning. A cold front dropping in from the north is producing gusty showers with isolated thunder. A crossing low-level jet will continue the mixing through the morning hours and scrape the ridges with gusty winds. Strong northwest flow behind the front will quickly advect cooler air in from the north. With cooler air pouring over the warm waters of Lake Erie, limited production of lake-enhanced showers should continue into the afternoon.
440 AM EDT Mon Oct 24 2016 A cold front will clear the commonwealth this morning. This will produce the typical lake effect clouds and isolated to scattered showers across the higher terrain of the Alleghenies and north central mountains through tonight.
Temperatures will remain on the cooler side Monday. On Tuesday, an upper level wave will move into the area as well as a cold front.