Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1107 AM EST Tue Nov 5 2019 Only some minor near term adjustments made as forecast is largely on track to have diminishing slight pops the next few hours for isolated overrunning showers, then improved conditions and scattering cloud coverage from the NW as a secondary ridge builds in with drier conditions. /Issued 644 AM EST Tue Nov 5 2019/ The latest regional surface analysis indicates weak high pressure over the Appalachians with continued bridging through North GA.
High pressure over the northeast Pacific and Pacific Northwest will likely result in dry weather and a mixture of morning fog and low clouds and afternoon sunshine for many locations through the weekend.
154 PM MST Tue Nov 5 2019 Current surface map has high pressure over Minnesota/Iowa with a stationary front across southern Montana into western and central South Dakota. Aloft, the Hudson Bay Low and trough extends southward through the Mississippi Valley Region, while the upper ridge remains over the Pacific Northwest.
With cloud cover once again inhibiting radiative cooling overnight, low temperatures should bottom out in the low to mid 60s inland and around 70 along the coast.
344 PM CST Tue Nov 5 2019 A long wave trough will remain over the Upper Midwest into mid November, with northwesterly mid to high level flow across the high plains and upper level ridging near the West Coast. Temperatures will initially be above freezing and then falling towards the freezing mark late. If the mid levels remain dry, then only some drizzle could be expected, changing to freezing drizzle late. Given the warm antecedent conditions and temperatures falling to barely below freezing, if any slick spots develop at all, they would probably be confined to steps or sidewalks.
A Canadian cold front has begun to slide across the Continental Divide this afternoon, with temperature drops and northeasterly winds already evident along Highway 2 down to about Essex. Temperatures will generally run 10 to 15 degrees cooler than what was observed on Tuesday.
Temperatures overnight will drop into the 30 to 35 degree range while warmer temperatures, in the 50s are expected tomorrow. A warm front oriented roughly west-east across Iowa into west central IL is bringing cloudiness across that area, and this should extend farther with time into central Illinois. A high pressure area will quickly move across the CWA this evening, before a low pressure area and frontal boundary slides across the area. Freezing or below freezing temps are expected tonight and tomorrow night.
Best chances for an inch will be across the Devils Lake basin where the low level forcing is stronger and thermal boundary tighter with a pressure rise couplet also creating a period of gusty winds.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 42 69 50 62 / 0 0 10 90 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 39 65 46 59 / 0 0 10 90 Oak Ridge, TN 38 65 46 58 / 0 0 10 90 Tri Cities Airport, TN 35 63 40 58 / 0 0 0 80.
High pressure will continue to dominate the weather pattern with dry weather conditions and above average temperatures. The Rex Block remains in place with the upper ridge just off the west coast and the upper low near southern California. The upper low will move inland tomorrow while the upper ridge gradually shifts eastward and expands inland over California late this week resulting in a slight warming trend. It will also result in warmer daytime highs along the coast. Operational and ensemble forecast models continue to show the upper ridge as the dominate weather feature into at least the middle of the month. The 12z ECMWF is also beginning to show a slight pattern shift mid November with a trough just off the coast in the last frame at 240 hours.
450 PM MST Tue Nov 5 2019 The primary concern in the short term period is the possibility of a wintry mix of precipitation that may include flurries and light freezing drizzle Wednesday night.
653 PM EST Tue Nov 5 2019 A dry, but cold night and Wednesday can be expected as high pressure builds over the region.
Highs for today and tomorrow will be near more normal Nov values which ranges from the low to mid 70s. Mostly clear skies can be expected with highs ranging from the low to mid 70s.
Clouds will begin to increase later tonight ahead of an approaching upper-level low over Baja California that will evolve into a progressive trough as it moves over the Chihuahuan Desert and into the southern Great Plains.
A long wave trough will remain over the Upper Midwest into mid November, with northwesterly mid to high level flow across the high plains and upper level ridging near the West Coast. Temperatures will initially be above freezing and then falling towards the freezing mark late Wednesday night. If the mid levels remain dry, then only some drizzle could be expected, changing to freezing drizzle late. Given the warm antecedent conditions and temperatures falling to barely below freezing, if any slick spots develop at all, they would probably be confined to steps or sidewalks.
Temperatures overnight will drop into the 30 to 35 degree range while warmer temperatures, in the 50s are expected tomorrow. A high pressure area will quickly move across the CWA this evening, before a low pressure area and frontal boundary slides across the area. Freezing or below freezing temps are expected tonight and tomorrow night.
An upper-level area of low pressure will be centered near the Baja Peninsula tonight. This area of low pressure aloft will move to the northeast over the Desert Southwest Wednesday. The upper-level area of low pressure should open up into a trough of low pressure near the Four Corners Wednesday night.
444 PM MST Tue Nov 5 2019 Current surface map has high pressure over Minnesota/Iowa with a stationary front across southern Montana into western and central South Dakota. Aloft, the Hudson Bay Low and trough extends southward through the Mississippi Valley Region, while the upper ridge remains over the Pacific Northwest.
Solutions honing in still on onset of this low cloud layer during the predawn hours Wednesday, so we retained much of the previous timing and layer height.
An upper trough over the Ohio Valley rotates through the Northeast during the near term as high surface pressure builds into the mid-Atlantic and southeastern states.
Temperatures will settle into the low to mid 70s in most areas, expect in the upper 60s across rural parts of northern Lake and western Volusia Counties.
848 PM CST Tue Nov 5 2019 Quiet and seasonably cool wx conditions prevail across the cntrl TN Valley this Tue evening, as high pressure gradually builds ewd into the region in the wake of a weak frontal passage. Current temps are mainly in the upper 40s/lower 50s, and should continue to fall into predom the lower 40s heading into the early morning hrs Wed. Rinse and repeat for Wednesday as high pressure works its way in to the area from the northwest. Afternoon highs a few degrees warmer than Tuesday with some locations making it up to 70F. As a frontal system approaches from the west, cloud coverage gradually increases from west to east Wednesday night resulting in a mild evening with overnight lows in the lower 50s.
A midlevel ridge was positioned over the NERN PAC and Gulf of Alaska during Tuesday afternoon. However, the ridge reamplifies after the passage of each trough. Stratus is expected to be slow to clear the Humboldt Bay area south along the Mendocino Coast during Wednesday, which will cause highs to struggle to climb out of the low 50s. After Wednesday, low-level offshore winds are forecast to develop, which will yield modest gusts across area ridgetops, and also aid in clearing stratus away from the coast.
As front washed out, cooler backdoor air in AR failing to penetrate region and daytime highs ranging thru 70's areawide, which also means that clear skies over AR will mostly remain just to our north for next svrl hours. Should skies eventually clear out, overnight lows may still fall to the lower 50's with readings closer to 60 degrees overnight across lower East TX. A stronger cold front getting hung up in parallel steering flow by late tonight near or just north of the Red River. Could see high pops Wednesday Night and possibly earlier over se OK near this front, with cooler backdoor airmass providing a low lvl inversion underneath the moisture.
A low pressure system will bring a chance for showers and thunderstorms mainly to areas east and southeast of Flagstaff late tonight through Wednesday night. Dry and stable conditions continue tonight ahead of a closed low transiting the ridge of high pressure into Southern Arizona. Models continue to track the low further south with subsequent runs, causing reduced precipitation amounts from this system especially along the Western Mogollon Rim including the Flagstaff Area.
As front washed out, cooler backdoor air in AR failing to penetrate region and daytime highs ranging thru 70's areawide, which also means that clear skies over AR will mostly remain just to our north for next svrl hours. Should skies eventually clear out, overnnight lows may still fall to the lower 50's with readings closer to 60 degrees overnight across lower East TX. A stronger cold front getting hung up in parallel steering flow by late tonight near or just north of the Red River. Could see high pops Wednesday Night and possibly earlier over se OK near this front, with cooler backdoor airmass providing a low lvl inversion underneath the moisture.
/Issued 303 PM EST Tue Nov 5 2019/ The lingering zone of isentropically induced stratocu and some isolated showers will continue to erode/scatter in the southern and eastern portions of the CWA late this afternoon as a backdoor front on the leading edge of another reinforcing ridge pushes southward.
High pressure continues to bring dry, mild weather today. Some high clouds have brought slightly cooler temperatures to the northern Sacramento Valley, while most locations are a couple of degrees warmer than yesterday. High temperatures will continue to be well above average and overnight lows will be chilly on Valley floors beneath strong surface inversions, while foothill and mountain ridges will remain mild at night.
High pressure is centered over southern Illinois and southern Indiana providing the great evening.
231 PM MST Tue Nov 5 2019 The primary concern in the short term period is the possibility of a wintry mix of precipitation that may include flurries and light freezing drizzle Wednesday night.
More widespread showers will develop during the afternoon and especially Wednesday evening as a cold front approaches. have added patchy drizzle to the grids for tonight and delayed the onset of possible thunder for Northwest Arkansas based on the latest timing of instability and the low level jet. temps by early morning Wednesday look to range from the lower 50s to around 60 degrees from north to south.
Highs will vary across the forecast area, ranging from the mid 30s over far northeast Nebraska to the lower 50s near the KS/MO borders.
High pressure builds in later tonight for clearing from north to south.
Cold front and associated precip will be moving into the area Thurs afternoon and off the coast Thurs evening. Overall instability is lacking, so tstm potential should be on the low side.
The Florida Keys are along the southern fringe of the cyclonic flow, with deep, mean-layer ridging over the Western Caribbean. Temperatures are in the lower 80s with dewpoints in the lower 70s.
Winds are light from the south southwest for most of the period before the cold front pushes in.
A fairly similar pattern to yesterday is expected across South Florida today, with only slightly breezier conditons as the gradient tightens in response to a cold front sagging into Florida from the north. Well-above average temperatures will continue this afternoon, unfortunately, but there is at least an end in sight with a cold front coming this weekend.
A cold front oriented primarily west-east continues to progress south through the forecast area, located approximately from Beach to Jamestown as of 7Z. Strong Arctic high pressure will settle into the region, leading to sunny skies but very cold high temperatures today, ranging from the upper teens in the far north to the mid 20s in the south-central and southeast.
Overall coverage and intensity of the rainfall will increase this evening and overnight, especially near the cold front. The position of the front and the location of the best upper level support favors areas between I-44 and I-40 for the highest rainfall amounts this evening, with an increasing southeastward push into tomorrow morning.
Quiet and seasonably cool wx conditions prevail across the cntrl TN Valley this Tue evening, as high pressure gradually builds ewd into the region in the wake of a weak frontal passage. Current temps are mainly in the upper 40s/lower 50s, and should continue to fall into predom the lower 40s heading into the early morning hrs Wed. Rinse and repeat for Wednesday as high pressure works its way in to the area from the northwest. Afternoon highs a few degrees warmer than Tuesday with some locations making it up to 70F. As a frontal system approaches from the west, cloud coverage gradually increases from west to east Wednesday night resulting in a mild evening with overnight lows in the lower 50s.
Northerly gradient in place through the day and overnight could bring some breezy conditions to areas along the Divide, and slightly cooler temperatures to most of East Idaho, otherwise no other impact expected associated with this feature.
1234 AM EST Wed Nov 6 2019 A dry, but cold night and Wednesday can be expected as high pressure builds over the region.
/Tonight/ Ely winds in the wake of a back-door cold front to eventually become sely overnight, especially across E TX. As front washed out, cooler backdoor air in AR failing to penetrate region and daytime highs ranging thru 70's areawide, which also means that clear skies over AR will mostly remain just to our north for next svrl hours. Should skies eventually clear out, overnight lows may still fall to the lower 50's with readings closer to 60 degrees overnight across lower East TX. A stronger cold front getting hung up in parallel steering flow by late tonight near or just north of the Red River. Could see high pops Wednesday Night and possibly earlier over se OK near this front, with cooler backdoor airmass providing a low lvl inversion underneath the moisture.
Clear and sunny skies will persist into the afternoon, with winds veering more southerly throughout the day, allowing us to enjoy one last "warm" day with high temperatures topping out in the low to mid 60s. By mid- afternoon, cloud cover will begin increasing over the region as a cold front approaches from the northwest.
Broad high pressure system hanging over the appalachians is continuing to filter into our area. With this system we can expect clear skies and calm winds which in return will allow for cooler temperatures overnight. Highs for today and tomorrow will be near more normal Nov values which ranges from the low to mid 70s. Mostly clear skies can be expected with highs ranging from the low to mid 70s.
Cooler temperatures filter into the region tomorrow afternoon with afternoon highs returning to near seasonal norms through the end of the workweek.
1028 PM MST Tue Nov 5 2019 Current surface map has high pressure over Minnesota/Iowa with a stationary front across southern Montana into western and central South Dakota. Aloft, the Hudson Bay Low and trough extends southward through the Mississippi Valley Region, while the upper ridge remains over the Pacific Northwest.
have added patchy drizzle to the grids for tonight and delayed the onset of possible thunder for Northwest Arkansas based on the latest timing of instability and the low level jet. temps by early morning Wednesday look to range from the lower 50s to around 60 degrees from north to south.
Temperatures are in the lower 40s to lower 50s. A longwave upper level trof over the eastern two-thirds of the contiguous U.
A low pressure system will bring a chance for showers and thunderstorms mainly to areas east and southeast of Flagstaff late tonight through Wednesday evening. A low pressure system that has been off the southern California for several days will move through northern Baja tonight and through southern Arizona on Wednesday. This low has tapped into a sub-tropical moisture plume, seen on IR imagery over southeast Arizona. Additionally, moderate dynamics to the east of the low and cooling temperatures aloft will add to the convective potential heading into Wednesday. We considered lowering some minimum temperatures tonight, as the boundary layer ahead of the low is still very dry.
High pressure off the Pacific coast continues to bring dry and mild conditions over the forecast area. However, a dry cold front will impact the forecast area on Wednesday, helping to bring a slight decrease in daytime temperatures, and a bump in wind across the area.
1232 AM EST Wed Nov 6 2019 A dry, but cold night and Wednesday can be expected as high pressure builds over the region.
Meanwhile, a cold front will begin to gain strength across the nations interior. The cold front will clear our southeastern most counties by Thu evening.
A cold front will start to approach the region this morning reaching northern Missouri by late this afternoon.
A cold front associated with this system, over northeast WY early this morning, will move into the northeast plains this afternoon. High temperatures today a little cooler than yesterday with the passage of the cold front. This profile more favorable for light freezing drizzle vs light snow. Overall the post-frontal upslope is fairly weak so do not anticipate more than patchy freezing drizzle from around 8 pm this evening until 1-2 am Thursday morning. Low clouds and perhaps patchy fog will linger into Thursday morning behind today's cold front. High pressure over the region will result in a cool stagnant airmass through Thursday afternoon.
417 AM EST Wed Nov 6 2019 Dry, but cold weather continues today as high pressure builds into the region. Showers will return Thursday with a cold front before transitioning to snow with only minor accumulations expected. Latest sfc analysis shows high pressure centered to our west which will continue building over the area today while sliding to the east in advance of our next system.
537 AM EST Wed Nov 6 2019 Dry, but cold weather continues today as high pressure builds into the region. Showers will return Thursday with a cold front before transitioning to snow with only minor accumulations expected. Latest sfc analysis shows high pressure centered to our west which will continue building over the area today while sliding to the east in advance of our next system.
1000 AM EST Wed Nov 6 2019 High pressure moving from the Ohio River Valley to near the mid-Atlantic Coast will direct dry air into the forecast area through tonight. A strong cold front will approach Thursday and move through the forecast area Thursday night bringing showers.
800 AM EST Wed Nov 6 2019 Dry, but cold weather continues today as high pressure builds into the region. Showers will return Thursday with a cold front before transitioning to snow with only minor accumulations expected. Latest sfc analysis shows high pressure centered to our west which will continue building over the area today while sliding to the east in advance of our next system.
Key West radar reveals a few small showers in the Gulf waters north of the lower Keys, but otherwise nothing or relevance.
324 AM CST Wed Nov 6 2019 The warm air advection and frontogenetic forcing which caused overnight snow and freezing rain continues to move eastward this morning. Freezing rain has largely ended as cold air advection in the mid-levels continues to erode the warm nose in temperature profiles. Locations from Brookings to Sioux Falls to Spirit Lake will also see light snow accumulations; however, the higher amounts remain in southern Minnesota. A lack of any warm nose and mid-level saturation of the dendritic growth zone should keep freezing rain from being a concern. Thursday will be dry with high temperatures struggling to get above freezing.
The upper trough will dig further down into the Great Lakes, leaving the region in northwesterly flow.
540 AM CST Wed Nov 6 2019 Early morning water vapor imagery showed an elongated trough across the Canadian Provinces with clipper system beginning to dig into British Columbia and Alberta. Further to the south, a weak trough was moving inland towards the Baja Peninsula with ridging downstream across New Mexico and Texas. As of 09Z, surface observations indicated the cold front was pushing through Central Nebraska, generally extending from Sioux City,IA to Grand Island, NE and extending back to the west towards Torrington, WY. Today we will see one more mild day ahead of the incoming cold front. Temperatures will rise into the 50s to near 60 before the cold front pushes through later today with temperatures quickly falling behind the front. Any precipitation should be winding down by Thursday morning as high pressure, and those colder temperatures, surge in.
A cold front will move southward across across the Central Plains this morning and into northern Kansas by afternoon with high pressure with arctic origins moves south behind the boundary. Forecast soundings suggest that any deeper moisture will remain to the southeast of the cwa, however east central Kansas will likely see dew points in the low to mid 40s this morning and into the afternoon ahead of the frontal boundary. Therefore the primary precipitation type will be drizzle and some light rain, transitioning to light snow and or a brief period of freezing drizzle tonight before ending. Temperatures ahead of the front should warm into the lower 60s with temperatures cooling behind the front during the mid to late afternoon hours. Temperatures tonight will cool down into the 20s to near freezing by sunrise Thursday.
350 AM CST Wed Nov 6 2019 Breezy and warmer weather will be on tap across central Illinois today as afternoon high temperatures top out in the 50s. Two distinct areas of forcing will develop tonight as a strong cold front drops into the region. As the cold front advances southeastward, brisk northerly winds in its wake will usher a much colder airmass into central Illinois on Thursday.
The Rex Block will break down during the next 24 hours or so as the closed mid/upper level low over Baja California shifts to the east. As this occurs, the ridge over the Eastern Pacific will build toward the West Coast and allow for a subtle warming trend. By late week, expecting less widespread coastal cloud cover as the ridge builds aloft. This trend will continue through the weekend with daytime temperatures in the lower/middle 70s at the coast and widespread 70s to lower 80s across the interior. SFO Bridge Approach. High pressure over the Eastern Pacific will maintain light to moderate northwest winds across the coastal waters through the forecast period.
404 AM CST Wed Nov 6 2019 An upper trough translating southeast from the northern Rockies across the plains will drive a strong cold front across our region during the daytime hours. Overall moisture is limited to the lower levels and forecast reflects a light rain chance initially, then changing to light snow as cold air deepens. influenced by a western upper ridge.
High temperatures will continue to be well above average and overnight lows will be chilly on Valley floors beneath strong surface inversions, while foothill and mountain ridges will remain mild at night.
The Rex Block will break down during the next 24 hours or so as the closed mid/upper level low over Baja California shifts to the east. As this occurs, the ridge over the Eastern Pacific will build toward the West Coast and allow for a subtle warming trend. By late week, expecting less widespread coastal cloud cover as the ridge builds aloft. This trend will continue through the weekend with daytime temperatures in the lower/middle 70s at the coast and widespread 70s to lower 80s across the interior.