Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Wednesday will see a mostly sunny sky with cool temperatures (but much warmer than today). A long wave ridge overhead will begin to flatten towards the end of the week, with flow becoming more zonal through the weekend.
By the weekend many locations will warm to the lower 60s in western Montana and lower 70s in central Idaho. Late this weekend, the models demonstrate a change to cooler and unsettled conditions. All terminals will see gradual clearing (if not already clear skies) and VFR conditions through tomorrow as high pressure builds over the northern Rockies.
/Tonight through Tuesday/ Early afternoon GOES water vapor imagery depicts an amplified synoptic pattern with a broad trough blanketing the western two- thirds of the CONUS. The parent upper low is spinning over western Ontario with the mean trough axis draped backed through the central Rockies, setting up mean southwesterly flow aloft over the region. Northwesterly winds have been quite brisk today in the CAA regime and tightened pressure gradient in the wake of a cold frontal passage last night. Cooler temperatures in the 40s to low 50s have kept RH levels just above RFW thresholds so far this afternoon.
(This evening through Wednesday) The 19Z surface observations indicate the cold front was draped from Shawnee to Washington to Waurika with temperatures in the mid-50's over northwest OK, 60s over central OK, and low 70's over south/southeast portions of the CWA. With the upper trough approaching and the surface boundary present, there is a chance for thunderstorms over Atoka and Bryan Counties this evening (7-10PM time frame).
Up above, the CWA sees a southwesterly flow aloft as an upper air trough with its base over central CO continues to make its way eastward. Tonight, models show the base of trough moving over CWA changing the flow to westerly aloft with an upper air ridge making its progression eastward off the Pacific coast. Overnight low temperatures expect to range from the lower to middle 20s. On Wednesday, forecast guidance shows the front part of the upper air ridge to the west reach over the CWA as it continues to make its way eastward. Daytime high temperatures expect to range from the lower to middle 50s with overnight lows in the middle to upper 20s.
A strong cold front will then sweep through Wednesday night, followed by dry and cool high pressure. Tonight: High pressure offshore to our northeast will continue to drift further out to sea tonight as a warm front slowly pushes north in its wake. It will be a warm and muggy night with lows generally in the lower 60s. We should see quite a bit of sunshine during the day, helping push temperatures into the low to mid 80s. However, forcing for convection may be lacking until the cold front gets closer to the area.
Despite broken cloud cover and cooler temperatures, drier air will continue to advect in from the northwest. Today should also be cooler and cloudier than yesterday due to the change in air mass.
320 PM CDT Tue Mar 30 2021 A cold front pushed through the area this morning ushering in dry cool air and strong NW winds. Northwest flow continues to usher in cool air as low temperatures tonight dip below freezing for many areas north of the MO River.
Expect afternoon highs to range from the upper 40s north of Highway 2 and into the low 50s south of Highway 2. Persistent high pressure and the upper level ridge will keep conditions dry through the weekend.
131 PM MDT Tue Mar 30 2021 Slightly unstable northwest flow continues this afternoon behind the strong cold front from yesterday. Wednesday will see clearing skies and warmer temperatures as 700mb temps increase by about 8 to 10 C. Wednesday night will see the ridge axis centering on the Intermountain West from Utah into Idaho.
211 PM CDT Tue Mar 30 2021 Cold front that moved through the area this morning is now located south of the forecast area from near Andrews to Colorado City to Munday as of 18z. With clear skies and continuing cold air advection overnight temperatures will be much cooler than compared to yesterday. Northwesterly flow aloft Wednesday night will yield to upper ridging late in the week, which will persist through Easter Weekend. A weakening disturbance, formerly a closed low off the Baja, will get caught up within the ridge.
220 PM EDT Tue Mar 30 2021 The upper ridging continues to stretch across the Bahamas, through the Florida Strait and into the southern Gulf of Mexico. On the surface, strong high pressure sitting off the New England coast ridges southwest over the mid-Atlantic states. Scattered showers will be possible today with the highest coverage north of the I-4 corridor in the vicinity of the front.
Deep moisture is moving up the Lower Mississippi Valley this afternoon. The moisture will surge northward then channel across Middle Tennessee tonight ahead of the advancing cold front.
221 PM CDT Tue Mar 30 2021 The surface cold front is slowly moving through northeast OK at this time, and will sag into northwest AR/southeast OK by late afternoon/early evening. Frontogenetical forcing associated with the mid-level trof along with the right entrance region to the upper jet will move into the region later tonight. Not completely out of the question to see a few snowflakes in the higher terrain of the Boston Mtns in northwest AR. Otherwise, Wednesday will be a cooler day with highs mostly in the 50s to near 60.
1230 PM CDT Tue Mar 30 2021 Some isolated sprinkles were able to squeeze out of the atmosphere overnight as a cold front pushed through the region. Elevated fire weather concerns continue with relative humidity dipping into the low 20s to low 30s this afternoon across much of the region. Behind the system that moves across the region today, large scale ridging is expected to form over the western half of the country. This ridging looks to remain in place through the weekend for a several day stretch of dry weather.
339 PM EDT Tue Mar 30 2021 Showers are expected to develop tonight in advance of a cold front and will dissipate from west to east overnight.
225 PM EDT Tue Mar 30 2021 Windy and mild conditions can be expected today in advance of a cold front.
242 PM CDT Tue Mar 30 2021 A cold front will move across the region this afternoon and evening bringing a chance of rain to central Illinois through tonight.
1237 PM EDT Tue Mar 30 2021 Dry weather will continue today as high pressure shifts offshore. Rain chances return tonight and Wednesday ahead of a cold front that should push through Wednesday night.
1249 PM CDT Tue Mar 30 2021 Updated aviation portion for 18Z TAF issuance Turning much cooler the next couple days, then temperatures warming back to above normal levels by the weekend. Then the progression will slow and amplitude will wane, leaving a broad upper ridge across across most of the CONUS. Temperatures will be cooler today, but still above normal.
Low pressure will continue to propagate northeast across Ontario into the night, yielding a slowly loosening pressure gradient across the Northland.
1157 AM EDT Tue Mar 30 2021 Abundant sunshine along with a moderately gusty southerly breeze will bring noticeably warmer conditions to central PA today.
340 PM CDT Tue Mar 30 2021 Warm frontal boundary has quickly lifted north, ushering abundant moisture into the region once more along with somewhat gusty southerly winds. After a relative lull in precipitation overnight, chances increase from daybreak onward as a cold front approaches from the north. While the main severe threat will end following the passage of the cold front, a tight pressure gradient and fairly rapid pressure rises will result in quite gusty post-frontal northerly winds.
228 PM MDT Tue Mar 30 2021 The upper level trough continues to push east with the upper level jet pushing into southern Colorado. Subsidence will increase behind the trough bringing snow to an end and partly clearing skies across the CWA through the evening hours. Upstream moisture shows mostly drying conditions with a weak ridge building in that will help to pull overnight low temperatures back into the lower to mid-20s across the plains. Temperatures will increase into the 50s over the plains and 30s to 40s in the high country.
253 PM MDT Tue Mar 30 2021 Fair weather prevails through the week ahead, as temperatures trend warmer.
224 PM CDT Tue Mar 30 2021 Broad upper trough swinging across the Rockies today will move onto the plains tonight. As it moves east Wednesday high pressure ridge over the Western US will start to build into the area.
Earlier convection and heavy rain have decreased as warm front has lifted north in se Ga and mid- level trough has shifted off the se coast. Rain chances should end by around midnight with a chance of fog and sea fog late tonight and Wednesday morning due to light winds and increased low level moisture with passage of warm front. Low temperatures will be warmer with lows in the low/mid 60s.
For tonight, the strong upper low will continue to exit the area and stabilization of the atmosphere will allow the winds to decrease below advisory thresholds around sunset.
Elevated north winds behind last night's cold front continued to produce cool/dry advection, a process that will continue into tonight. After highs in the lower to mid 50s this afternoon, north winds will diminish quickly early this evening.
314 PM CDT Tue Mar 30 2021 A broad meridional trough is advancing through the central CONUS with a slightly positive tilt. A western ridge continues to build into western portions of Canada and just off the Pacific coast. High temperatures have reached the mid 50s with cooler temperatures in the upper 40s into Nebraska. The upper trough is slow to move east through the day tomorrow which will allow for a few stronger wind gusts to linger over eastern parts of the area with some lower level winds able to transfer to the surface.
1238 PM CDT Tue Mar 30 2021 CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG A cold front will be moving through the KTUL/KRVS sites at the onset of the period, shifting winds to the north. /Issued 1018 AM CDT Tue Mar 30 2021/ Sfc cold front just pushing into northern sections of Osage and Washington counties as of mid morning.
355 PM EDT Tue Mar 30 2021 A cold front will move through overnight and into Wednesday morning.
Otherwise, the rest of the forecast remains on track, with highs in the 30s and 40s today, made cooler by the winds. STP Dynamic trough was sliding out of the forecast area with rising heights replacing it. Models catch on to this and put the most likely location for snow showers today in the higher terrain.
Blustery north winds and cooler temperatures are expected today. Most impactful north winds to aviators will occur in the lower Colorado River Valley between KIFP and KHII.
Rainy Tonight and Cooler Wednesday. Strong SSW flow in place this afternoon ahead of a low pressure system just off to the west. Large upper level trough will continue eastward across the Upper Midwest tonight into tomorrow. 5 PW values will spread eastward into the area just ahead of the sfc cold front, but the front is generally progressive in nature. The front pushes through between 06-12z, and winds abruptly veer NW behind the front and cooler air floods the region. 25 inches, with the higher 1+ inch totals likely in south-central KY.
Subtropical ridge remains firmly in place which is providing us with east to southeast winds.
1215 PM CDT Tue Mar 30 2021 (Today and tonight) The cold front over northwestern Oklahoma will push southeast through the day ushering in cooler temperatures, although the frontal passage in the south will be late enough that warm temperatures in the upper 70s and lower 80s are expected again today in north Texas and far southern Oklahoma. One interesting thing to note in the models is the RAP signal of getting some showers developing east of OKC around daybreak tomorrow as the upper-level trough moves over the area.
243 PM CDT Tue Mar 30 2021 Large scale trof that our cold front was associated with, will deepen over the southeaster CONUS. A cool northwesterly flow will be in play the rest of today and tomorrow as we await high pressure to return for the rest of the forecast period.
123 PM CDT Tue Mar 30 2021 A strong area of low pressure moving through northwest Ontario will bring windy conditions to the Northland today and tonight. The atmosphere remains fairly dry even with a southwesterly flow ahead of a cold front that will move across the area today. Temps ahead of the cold front early this morning were in the 50s, and behind the front were dropping into the 30s. Another cold front moves across the region tonight accompanied by additional cold air advection. A few snow showers may get wrung out of the limited amount of moisture available for the cold front to work with in the evening. Dry high pressure arrives for the rest of the night and Wednesday.
Drier and warmer conditions are expected for Wednesday as heights begin to build over the region from the west. Will have to monitor high pressure over YNP to see if the gradient becomes strong enough for a wind highlight at Livingston.
110 PM CDT Tue Mar 30 2021 Periodic snow showers continue along and north of the highway 2 corridor. Seeing some snow showers moving across the FA this morning, mainly along and north of the highway 200 corridor. Overall though winds will not be quite as strong as we head beyond 12z so will let the high wind warning expire.
Transition between zonal flow aloft to a more southwesterly flow has taken place today as South-Central Texas moves under the base of an upper level trough setting up over the Central CONUS. This timing will result in the high temperatures for Wednesday occurring during the few early morning hours before the front as much cooler air filters in behind it. A thin band of showers is depicted among the high resolution models for the FROPA, mostly over areas along and east of I-35. However, the lowest dewpoints don't settle into the region until after the wind speed maximum subsides. Wednesday night lows will run about 10 degrees cooler than climo norms.
Temperatures will be much cooler on Wednesday with highs in the lower 40s and gusty northwest winds. Cronce (Issued 256 PM CDT Tue Mar 30 2021) Wednesday night through Tuesday: We will continue to cold advect Wednesday night as the upper low swings across the region.
This, along with the dry airmass and clearing skies, should allow temperatures to plummet into the high teens to mid 20s by Wednesday morning.
Cold front has moved through northeastern Oklahoma and most of northwest Arkansas, bringing a shift to northerly winds across the area. /Issued 221 PM CDT Tue Mar 30 2021/ The surface cold front is slowly moving through northeast OK at this time, and will sag into northwest AR/southeast OK by late afternoon/early evening. Frontogenetical forcing associated with the mid-level trof along with the right entrance region to the upper jet will move into the region later tonight. Not completely out of the question to see a few snowflakes in the higher terrain of the Boston Mtns in northwest AR. Otherwise, Wednesday will be a cooler day with highs mostly in the 50s to near 60.
Current VFR to MVFR cigs to drop tonight ahead / along of a cold front set to sweep through starting early tomorrow. /issued 340 PM CDT Tue Mar 30 2021/ Warm frontal boundary has quickly lifted north, ushering abundant moisture into the region once more along with somewhat gusty southerly winds. After a relative lull in precipitation overnight, chances increase from daybreak onward as a cold front approaches from the north. While the main severe threat will end following the passage of the cold front, a tight pressure gradient and fairly rapid pressure rises will result in quite gusty post-frontal northerly winds.
In terms of severe weather potential, the better dynamics appears to be south of I-40 closer to the AL/TN border and our southwestern counties where some instability could creep in overnight behind the warm front. Heaviest showers will exit the area by mid- morning as our cold front will help move things out swiftly.
640 PM CDT Tue Mar 30 2021 (This evening through Wednesday) The 19Z surface observations indicate the cold front was draped from Shawnee to Washington to Waurika with temperatures in the mid-50's over northwest OK, 60s over central OK, and low 70's over south/southeast portions of the CWA. With the upper trough approaching and the surface boundary present, there is a chance for thunderstorms over Atoka and Bryan Counties this evening (7-10PM time frame).
801 PM CDT Tue Mar 30 2021 Cold front stretches from SE Madison county to FSM to south of MLC, and continues steady progress to the southeast. Cold front has moved through northeastern Oklahoma and most of northwest Arkansas, bringing a shift to northerly winds across the area. /Issued 221 PM CDT Tue Mar 30 2021/ The surface cold front is slowly moving through northeast OK at this time, and will sag into northwest AR/southeast OK by late afternoon/early evening. Frontogenetical forcing associated with the mid-level trof along with the right entrance region to the upper jet will move into the region later tonight. Not completely out of the question to see a few snowflakes in the higher terrain of the Boston Mtns in northwest AR. Otherwise, Wednesday will be a cooler day with highs mostly in the 50s to near 60.
Fair weather prevails through the week ahead, as temperatures trend warmer.
High pressure will continue to build across the region through midweek and remain in place heading into the upcoming weekend, resulting in a substantial warming trend. High pressure is approaching the Pacific coast this evening, and Utah and southwest Wyoming are in an unseasonably cool northerly flow out ahead of it. In the wake of yesterday's strong cold front high temperatures were in excess of 10F below seasonal normals. As the ridge continues to build over the area into the upcoming weekend, temperatures will steadily warm as conditions remain dry.
708 PM CDT Tue Mar 30 2021 A cold front pushed through the area this morning ushering in dry cool air and strong NW winds. Northwest flow continues to usher in cool air as low temperatures tonight dip below freezing for many areas north of the MO River.
/issued 224 PM CDT Tue Mar 30 2021/ Broad upper trough swinging across the Rockies today will move onto the plains tonight. As it moves east Wednesday high pressure ridge over the Western US will start to build into the area.
A cold front passed through the area today which has led to gusty NW winds of 20 to 35 mph. high confidence on freezing temperatures. Quiet and cold conditions will be seen across the area Wednesday night as high pressure moves through the area.
A cold front will approach the state Wednesday afternoon clearing terminals from NW to SE.
The upper level trough continues to push east with the upper level jet pushing into southern Colorado. Subsidence will increase behind the trough bringing snow to an end and partly clearing skies across the CWA through the evening hours. Upstream moisture shows mostly drying conditions with a weak ridge building in that will help to pull overnight low temperatures back into the lower to mid-20s across the plains. Temperatures will increase into the 50s over the plains and 30s to 40s in the high country.
High pressure start to build back into the region late Wednesday, with temperatures warming through the weekend. The trough over our area will gradually shift east as heights build in over the area on Wednesday. Surface winds will become northeasterly and remain breezy along and south of the high terrain overnight. This will keep overnight lows a bit warmer in those areas.
728 PM CDT Tue Mar 30 2021 (This evening through Wednesday) Tonight's cold frontal passage will bring cooler temperatures to the region. In fact, most areas will see high temperatures in the low to middle 60s for tomorrow afternoon.
Warm front will have lifted well north of the area, with ridge axis of high pressure over the west Atlantic extending across central Florida.
715 PM EDT Tue Mar 30 2021 Showers are expected to develop tonight in advance of a cold front and will dissipate from west to east overnight.
Cold front and wind shift to the NW/N will occur tomorrow, roughly 13-15Z CLL, 16-18Z IAH and 18-20Z GLS. Isolated to widely scattered showers (developing along to just ahead of the warm front) will continue to lift and track off to the NE for the rest of this afternoon. The strong onshore flow that has been in place for much of today is expected to persist into tonight, and may not decrease until late overnight/very early tomorrow morning as the cold front begins its final approach into SE TX. And so with the el- evated winds, spotty drizzle and abundant low clouds, will keep with the ongoing trends of warmer than MOS low temperatures tonight. Not planning on major changes (from previous) with the timing of the cold front. Much cooler/drier tomorrow night.
Upper ridge with sunny skies and warm temps Wed. Models continue to show weak cold frontal passage later Thu.
/Issued 243 PM CDT Tue Mar 30 2021/ Large scale trof that our cold front was associated with, will deepen over the southeaster CONUS. A cool northwesterly flow will be in play the rest of today and tomorrow as we await high pressure to return for the rest of the forecast period.
A cold front has moved into our northwest counties and it will continue to move through the rest of the area through early evening. Temperatures will turn much cooler tonight and Wednesday with dry Canadian air moving south into the region.
Warm and sunny this afternoon with continued warming on Wednesday as high pressure builds.
611 PM CDT Tue Mar 30 2021 A cold front will move across the region this afternoon and evening bringing a chance of rain to central Illinois through tonight.
833 PM CDT Tue Mar 30 2021 A cold front will move across the region this afternoon and evening bringing a chance of rain to central Illinois through tonight.
East to northeast winds will stay a bit increased through much of the period as another surge of cooler air comes in behind a departing upper level short wave trough this evening. /issued 211 PM CDT Tue Mar 30 2021/ Cold front that moved through the area this morning is now located south of the forecast area from near Andrews to Colorado City to Munday as of 18z. With clear skies and continuing cold air advection overnight temperatures will be much cooler than compared to yesterday. Northwesterly flow aloft Wednesday night will yield to upper ridging late in the week, which will persist through Easter Weekend. A weakening disturbance, formerly a closed low off the Baja, will get caught up within the ridge.
High pressure over the region will allow for dry conditions and steadily warming temperatures through the end of the week.
826 PM MDT Tue Mar 30 2021 Fair weather prevails through the week ahead, as temperatures trend warmer.
A broad meridional trough is advancing through the central CONUS with a slightly positive tilt. A western ridge continues to build into western portions of Canada and just off the Pacific coast. High temperatures have reached the mid 50s with cooler temperatures in the upper 40s into Nebraska. The upper trough is slow to move east through the day tomorrow which will allow for a few stronger wind gusts to linger over eastern parts of the area with some lower level winds able to transfer to the surface.
Isolated to widely scattered showers (developing along to just ahead of the warm front) will continue to lift and track off to the NE for the rest of this afternoon. The strong onshore flow that has been in place for much of today is expected to persist into tonight, and may not decrease until late overnight/very early tomorrow morning as the cold front begins its final approach into SE TX. And so with the el- evated winds, spotty drizzle and abundant low clouds, will keep with the ongoing trends of warmer than MOS low temperatures tonight. Not planning on major changes (from previous) with the timing of the cold front. Much cooler/drier tomorrow night.