Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
JKL Warm ridge of yesterday has flattened out and an upper trough was moving into southern British Columbia early this morning. A weak cold front has pushed through the forecast area and this will lead to cooler temperatures today. Raised snow amounts for the high county for tonight and Sunday. The amin brunt of the system will chug east for Sunday and lingered the higher PoPs over the southeast zones then. Sunday will be cooler than Saturday, as highs will struggle to get out of the 50s. In fact, may have to lower highs further, as some guidance was pointing to highs in the lower 50s.
A weak cold front is making its way south over our area with dew points dropping to the lower 60s. However, temps will rise to upper 80s/near 90 across the interior while the coastal sites will feel a slight relief as highs only climb to the lower- mid 80s.
Currently, the Northern Plains are experiencing zonal flow aloft with some weak troughing near the US/Canadian West Coast. At the surface, a low exists to the north over west-central MB with a warm front extending south through eastern ND. Expect that warm front to push east today, but followed by a cold front tonight. Tonight, the cold front pushes south and clouds increase. On Sunday, an upper level trough approaches from the northwest, while the West Coast trough deepens and moves east. The main story will be a much cooler airmass for the work week after a weekend featuring a very warm airmass today and 60s tomorrow. A strong upper wave and associated cold front moves across the area tomorrow night and brings a chance for rain showers to much of the area. A much cooler air mass follows.
304 AM PDT Sat May 1 2021 A trough moving over the West this weekend will mean gusty westerly winds over the mountains and deserts, a deepening marine layer with night and morning low clouds and fog, and cooler days.
1010 AM EDT Sat May 1 2021 High pressure crosses the area today and tonight with dry weather through Sunday.
747 AM EDT Sat May 1 2021 High pressure builds in for the weekend.
743 AM EDT Sat May 1 2021 High pressure will build across the region through the weekend with dry conditions through Sunday.
A backdoor cold front is currently moving south and appears to be located between TYS and CHA, noted by a dewpoint gradient. Clouds may start to increase late tonight as high clouds round the top of the ridge.
332 AM MDT Sat May 1 2021 Flat ridge remains over the northern plains today with upper trof pushing across the west coast and into the Great Basin. Although temperatures will be a little cooler then yesterday, dry conditions will drop relative humidity to near 20 percent. With frontal passage this evening and western upper trof moving over the region, could get a few showers developing by early Sunday morning.
536 AM EDT Sat May 1 2021 Dry and warmer weather is expected through the weekend. Mainly dry weather is expected through the rest of the weekend with a warming trend in temperature as ridging amplifies over the region.
Looking at webcams and visible satellite, we do have quite a bit of towering cu with flat bases, along with weak flow in the lowest three thousand feet, conditions are ideal for waterspout development. This combined with dew points in the lower 70s, will make for heat indices in the mid 90s. High pressure over the southeast U. These showers will have to come about due to boundary collisions as we will remain under deep layer ridging. A waterspout was reported this morning off the Upper Keys and more are possible today, especially in the vicinity of the Lower Keys. Otherwise, high pressure across the southeastern U.
652 AM EDT Sat May 1 2021 Low pressure exits through the Canadian Maritimes today, leaving behind some clearing and a breezy day. A weak cold front crosses the region late Sunday afternoon, but it should remain partly sunny and seasonably mild.
Broad ridging in the upper levels will continue to build east but flatten out/weaken as it does.
543 AM CDT Sat May 1 2021 A broad mid-level ridge is currently moving over the Rockies while at the surface a high pressure is moving into the Ohio River Valley. The high will continue to exert its influence over our sensible weather keeping conditions sunny and dry through the day. As the high moves to the east, winds will veer to the southwest, becoming gusty during the day as the surface pressure gradient tightens. The clouds and showers will keep temperatures several degrees cooler than today, with the coolest areas across southeast Missouri and southern Illinois where precipitation will move in earlier in the day.
The mid level ridge that has been over the area will protect much of the area from this immoderate weather today, but as it begins shifting east, a few showers will nudge into western portions this afternoon. But as the low level flow increases and the ejecting cold core low begins tapping higher PW air over the northwestern Gulf, widespread showers and thunderstorms will develop along and north of the coastal baroclinic zone and spread into the area from the southwest by dawn Sunday.
As a result, expect relative humidity values to drop into the low 20s to even upper teens in a few spots during the afternoon. Otherwise, look for a moisture starved cold front to gradually sink SE across the region later this afternoon, causing winds to gradually shift to the NW.
Dry conditions and plenty of sunshine today as high pressure builds across the region. Mainly dry weather is expected through the rest of the weekend with a warming trend in temperature as ridging amplifies over the region.
630 AM EDT Sat May 1 2021 Upper air pattern consists of a broad 500 mb ridge across the Rockies this morning with a trough in the Pacific NW and another in New England. The broad upper ridge moves into the upper Great Lakes this forecast period.
422 AM CDT Sat May 1 2021 Today and tonight: Weak northwesterly flow aloft continues overhead as weak upper level ridging moves eastward into the Central Plains.
353 AM MDT Sat May 1 2021 One more day of record breaking warmth is in store for the area, before the upper level trof in the Pacific northwest moves into the region. The GFS/ECMWF are pretty bullish in bringing some scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms this afternoon, but looking at the latest water vapor loop at the various levels we are only seeing a few pockets of deeper moisture mainly over the higher terrain. This should all take place before the higher clouds start moving into southeast Wyoming and the Nebraska Panhandle late this afternoon. The cold front is expected to push through the area from the north on Sunday and bring much cooler temperatures and more rainfall to the plains with mostly snow over the Snowy and Sierra Madre Ranges and perhaps the I-80 Summit.
The warm front is almost stationary south of Galveston to Victoria line, that, in combination with a strong low-level frontogenesis maximized in the 925-825 mb layer, PWATs near 2. Forcing and dynamics will be enhanced across the region as the aforementioned upper low lifts northeastward into eastern TX and the Lower MS Valley.
453 AM CDT Sat May 1 2021 Current surface analysis places low along the Saskatchewan/Manitoba border with warm front over the eastern Dakotas. Upper level analysis places flat ridge over the northern plains, with trough over British Colombia southward over the West Coast. Though not as extreme of conditions as yesterday, dry air remains over the area with temperatures again expected to climb well above average with the passing ridge. For tonight, aforementioned west coast trough pushes east with upper flow starting to shift southwesterly overnight. On Sunday, cooler air starts to drop into the area while the aforementioned short wave makes its way through.
The RAP continues to suggest some weak frontogenesis in the 850-500 mb layer across this area combined with some convergence at 850 mb as the moisture transport begins to increase ahead of an approaching short wave trough. The upper level flow will turn to the southwest ahead of an approaching trough in the northern stream. The models have been consistent in showing this to be a rather dirty flow pattern with several smaller embedded short wave troughs versus a single stronger one. A cold front will ever so slowly move into the area and looks to have good low level forcing along it.
308 PM EDT Sat May 1 2021 High pressure will pass east into the western Atlantic tonight, resulting in a strong warming trend with southwesterly flow Sunday.
The cut-off low that has been residing over northern Mexico and most of Texas will finally begin to make its trek NE in the Southern Plains and lower Midwest through Sunday. Rain showers are looking to increase from the south after 18Z as the aforementioned low pressure center evolves into an upper level trough while moving NE through the region.
327 PM CDT Sat May 1 2021 A closed upper low over the Rio Grande Valley of southwest TX will move northeast close to the MO/AR border by early Sunday evening. Some light rain may hang on in the deformation zone north of the low into the evening hours. Temperatures look to stay cooler with clouds over our eastern counties Sunday afternoon with highs in the upper 60s.
Meanwhile, the upper low situated over lower Texas will start moving NE over the Mississippi River Valley.
BSH A broad mid-level ridge is currently moving over the Rockies while at the surface a high pressure is moving into the Ohio River Valley. The high will continue to exert its influence over our sensible weather keeping conditions sunny and dry through the day. As the high moves to the east, winds will veer to the southwest, becoming gusty during the day as the surface pressure gradient tightens. The clouds and showers will keep temperatures several degrees cooler than today, with the coolest areas across southeast Missouri and southern Illinois where precipitation will move in earlier in the day.
Temperatures range from the low to mid 80s over Wisconsin to the lower 90s across western Minnesota. Mid level cloud cover has developed and spread across areas south of I-94, which may slow the rate of warming a little this afternoon, but still expecting enough breaks in the overcast and the arriving thermal ridge to push readings up to around 90 farther east, perhaps even up to the metro. The surface cold front will stall across the CWA, but provide little lift and the boundary layer is expected to remain quite dry.
High pressure will shift to the east and an upper low over southern Texas will start to lift northeast early Sunday. Guidance still depicts weakening of the upper trough as it lifts towards the Ohio Valley. However, an upper jet behind the upper low may aid storm development/maintenance by late Sunday afternoon/evening.
Meanwhile behind the trough, winds are north to northeast. Expanding our field of vision, there is a high pressure cell over the Carolinas that is beginning to emerge across the western Atlantic. Meanwhile, in the upper levels, a trough is moving across Mexico and into the western Rio Grande Valley.
237 PM CDT Sat May 1 2021 After a dry night tonight, scattered showers will begin to creep back into the picture Sun as a warm front moves up across the deep south. Showers/storms are expected to become more widespread Sun night as an upper trough approaches and this warm front pushes north of the mid-state. Early Mon, this upper trough passes and clears out a lot of this widespread pcpn. Instability will drop off early Tue morning but here will be another slight jump Tues afternoon, however it does not look likely SVR storms are really in the works then, even as the trailing front and broad upper trough pass later.
There is still some question as to where exactly the warm front will be by the afternoon hours, but most guidance brings it to around Highway 29 or so, stalled out from central to east- central Wisconsin. Thus, reflected this in the high temperature forecast, with middle 60s for the northwoods and middle 70s for the southern half of our area.
Another decent temperature day is anticipated for Sunday, although cooler than today. It does look to be cooler across the Devils Lake region and warmer elsewhere. Colder early AM temps would make some snowflakes possible, offering insignificant impacts, except to one's psyche! The amplified upper structure during the mid week period is likely to see the ridge begin to break down with the flow becoming flatter and more zonal heading toward the weekend. The temperature regime will remain below normal during the upcoming week, as 850 mb temps stick close to 0 C translating to overnight lows around freezing with daytime highs only in the 50s. The gustiest winds (from the west-northwest) have generally been south of the highway 2 corridor so far.
Sunny skies today, with high pressure over the region. A back-door cold front that has moved through this morning will help keep the dew points fairly low , generally in the mid 30s east to mid 40s west. As an upper low pivots northeast into central and northeast TX tonight, south-southwest flow in mid to upper levels will increase across much of the Gulf and middle South. The upper low level low should become an open wave over AR and LA Sunday, with clusters of showers and thunderstorms thriving across the deep South and lower MS Valley due to plentiful low level moisture transport. Will keep PoPs in the low to middle chance range at this point.
Temperatures along the coast will be cooler as clouds are slower to decrease in coverage.
1213 PM CDT Sat May 1 2021 (Today and tonight) A closed upper low was nearing the Big Bend region of Texas early this morning. As lift increase with the approaching upper low, scattered to numerous showers and embedded thunderstorms will overspread the area from south to north today. Highest rain amounts are expected across portions of the Northern Edwards Plateau, Northwest Hill Country and Heartland counties closer to the track of the upper low, where precipitation amounts between 1 and 2 inches are likely, with locally higher amounts near 3 inches possible.
318 PM CDT Sat May 1 2021 Lingering influence of a high pressure system to our east continue the dry weather through tonight. Most of the country is under slight upper-level ridging. A closed upper-level low bringing heavy rain to Texas today will move off to the northeast tomorrow as a trough rapidly deepens in the mountain west. The increased clouds and rain will help keep highs cooler than today, in the lower 70s for Southeast Missouri and mid 70s for areas further northeast with later arrival of rain. Following the departure of Sunday's low pressure system, a cold front develops over the Central Plains, stretching from the Great Lakes to the Four Corners.
Sat pix show upper low situated over the Big Bend area with another round of convection firing there.
300 PM EDT Sat May 1 2021 Windy and warmer this afternoon with highs in the 70s.
308 PM EDT Sat May 1 2021 High pressure moves off the coast tonight.
Sunday's weather will be influenced by an approaching upper level low from the southern Plains. High temps will be nearly as mild as Sunday's highs, but increasing cloud cover from the south will limit highs in our southern counties to the mid 70s, while northern areas reach the low 80s under longer sunshine. Peak gusts should remain in the 30s mph, instead of the low to mid 40s mph. Rain will overspread our CWA from south to north Sunday night, with isolated storms possible, as the upper level low approaches from the SW and a cold front approaches from the Plains.
Surface dew points are only in the low-mid 30s and this will certainly limit instability. 5 kft by tomorrow morning, so we will see snow accumulation over the high elevations. Temps tomorrow will be quite a bit cooler than today, with highs in the 50s most places.
High pressure begins to shift east tomorrow ahead of our next system and southerly flow returns. Ridging over the eastern states breaks down Sunday night as an upper low moves out of the Southern Plains into the lower Mississippi Valley and western Tennessee Valley. The upper low is expected to fill and become an open wave as it progresses to the east northeast.
136 PM EDT Sat May 1 2021 High pressure will build across the region through the weekend with dry conditions through Sunday.
The trough over eastern Colorado continues the gradient for Kansas, and with RH values continuing to fall and expected increase in temps this afternoon, the upgrade was warranted.
To begin the period, a weakening short wave will be located over the Ohio Valley, while a deep upper level trough resides over the Four Corners region. The short wave will lift to the NE as the deeper trough progresses east, broadening as it moves.
Frontal boundary stalled over south FL today will lift north across central FL as a warm front Tonight, then north across forecast area Sunday.
139 PM EDT Sat May 1 2021 Upper air pattern consists of a broad 500 mb ridge across the Rockies this morning with a trough in the Pacific NW and another in New England. The broad upper ridge moves into the upper Great Lakes this forecast period.
/issued 800 AM EDT Sat May 1 2021/ Mid level ridging resides over FL and much of the Gulf of Mexico through this evening. A diffuse boundary currently across north- central FL dissipates as high pressure begins to build in from the Atlantic. Forecasts look good with highs reaching the lower 90s inland. A diffuse boundary across north-central FL washes out today as high pressure builds in with an initially relaxed gradient.
A front moving through Sunday will bring slightly cooler conditions to the region along with a chance of showers for the higher terrain of Southern Nevada and Northwest Arizona.
Fair weather will continue through tonight with high pressure in place and overnight lows generally in the low to mid 60s. On Sunday, high pressure will slide eastward with returning flow off the Gulf increasing low level moisture.
There are scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over the Edwards Plateau to near Big Bend associated with an upper level low over the Serranias del Burro of Mexico. The upper level low will accelerate moving over the Edwards Plateau later this afternoon, Hill Country this evening, and Central Texas overnight. The showers and thunderstorms will accompany the low as it moves across those areas. The upper level low takes the showers and thunderstorms with it as moves off to the east by Sunday morning. This allows for much warmer temperatures.
The trough is nearly stationary this afternoon and will actually become more like a warm front this evening as it slowly lift northward into the Sandhills. These appear to move eastward along and north of the warm front that lifts into the Sandhills this evening. The deeper/better moisture will be located to the east of the trough where dew points in the upper 50s to lower 60s will be in place. Meanwhile a cold front will be surging southeastward across the Panhandle and northwest Nebraska.
Dry conditions and plenty of sunshine will continue this afternoon with high pressure in control.
(This evening through Sunday) Upper low currently over SW TX/N Mexico will move NE across Texas into western Arkansas into Sunday. Showers and maybe a few storms will be possible, mainly in southern and eastern portions of the fa around the low.
This will bring in a cooler and showery Sunday, with isolated thunderstorms in southwest Montana.
144 PM EDT Sat May 1 2021 Weak high pressure will build across the area today with morning clouds giving way to partial sunshine. Weak low pressure will cross the area tonight with a few showers, followed by partial sunshine and seasonably mild temperatures on Sunday.
A weak ridge will build in behind this. Also on Sunday the next trough will move down across CA and into AZ overnight.
1238 PM EDT Sat May 1 2021 High pressure will build in this weekend.
Our composite radar loops does show showers moving into western lower Michigan from as far south as South Haven to near the Big Mac Bridge. That puts our area in the speed divergence area of the low level jet after 8 pm. The most significant elevated cape (400- 700 j/kg) is near and north of Route 10 early tonight in combination with the low level jet core passing just south of that cape maximum.
Cirrus layer from western fringe of cyclone to east will pull away through PM hrs with general clearing to SKC overnight into tomorrow. /issued 345 AM CDT Sat May 1 2021/ WV imagery shows the upper trough centered just southwest of the Presidio Valley at 06Z, and still developing convection ahead of it. Sunday, flow aloft transitions to zonal as the next trough digs through the SW CONUS.
Thankfully, these conditions will be short-lived as cooler and wetter weather moves in later tonight. This will lead to a much cooler day tomorrow with temperatures in the 50s and 60s by the afternoon.
247 PM EDT Sat May 1 2021 High pressure will build across the region through the weekend with dry conditions through Sunday.
Water vapor appears to show upper trough opening up over west Texas and vigorous convection over south Texas becoming more progressive. Upper trough will lift northeast into the Arklatex through Sunday. A warm humid air mass is expected behind the upper trough with low temperatures over most areas remaining in the 70s.
The highest chances of showers and storms will be across the eastern portion of the area.
211 PM CDT Sat May 1 2021 With high pressure centered over the Tennessee Valley, clear skies will continue overnight tonight with light and variable winds. Dry air mass from the back-door cold front this morning should hold off any fog development overnight, and allow for excellent radiational cooling. Overnight lows should fall into the low-to-mid 50s. High pressure doesn't hang around very much longer.
330 PM EDT Sat May 1 2021 High pressure will dominate this weekend. High pressure will continue overhead this evening, and then shift offshore overnight. Calm conditions are also possible along the immediate coastline, and temps will fall into the low to mid 50s after sunset there as well. Low temps are likely to occur prior to midnight along the coast, with temps rising overnight due to swrly flow increasing as high pressure shifts offshore. Influx of moisture in the mid levels from the SW increases cloud coverage keeping highs in the low 80s and upper 70s near the coast. Overnight lows in the low 60s.
151 PM PDT Sat May 1 2021 A cold front will bring a few showers and thunderstorms to the region late this afternoon and tonight. Breezy winds and cooler temperatures Sunday, will be followed by another warmup through mid week as high pressure overspreads the west.
1137 AM MDT Sat May 1 2021 One more day of record breaking warmth is in store for the area, before the upper level trof in the Pacific northwest moves into the region. The GFS/ECMWF are pretty bullish in bringing some scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms this afternoon, but looking at the latest water vapor loop at the various levels we are only seeing a few pockets of deeper moisture mainly over the higher terrain. This should all take place before the higher clouds start moving into southeast Wyoming and the Nebraska Panhandle late this afternoon. The cold front is expected to push through the area from the north on Sunday and bring much cooler temperatures and more rainfall to the plains with mostly snow over the Snowy and Sierra Madre Ranges and perhaps the I-80 Summit.
As we transition into the evening and especially the overnight hours, expect a sharp uptick in storm coverage due to the upper level trough to our west. /issued 1036 AM CDT Sat May 1 2021/ Another day dealing with this pesky upper level trough across SW TX into old Mexico today. Current radar mosaic showing widespread showers across portions of Deep East Texas this morning in association with weak inverted trough axis which extends south and west into Deep South Texas. Did raise temps into the lower 80s across this region while lowered temps a few degrees across Deep East Texas where precipitation has greatly delayed the warmup and even with precipitation coverage expected to diminish later today.