Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Aloft, our region was in southwest flow ahead of an approaching upper trough across the northern Rockies/plains. although upstream across WY and western SD, additional low/mid clouds were advancing southeast behind a cold front. Despite the passage of the front, temperatures are still expected to be several degrees above normal for highs today with readings mainly in the upper 40s to around 50F (normal highs average in the low 40s). Tonight and Friday we will see the upper trough axis depart the plains into the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes region, with heights rising behind the exiting system.
/issued 310 AM CST Thu Nov 26 2020/ Satellite and radar already indicate showers developing from the Central Texas coast into the outer waters off the Louisiana coast in the developing WAA regime ahead of a deepening trough across the western states. The front will remain in the area with the approaching upper low with shower and thunderstorm chances remaining high through the weekend.
Despite plenty of sunshine today, troughing across the central US will bring slightly cooler temperatures to the area.
Timing for the cold front with the next wave is still consistent, bringing a quick chance of snow showers in the northwest starting 17Z and then further south and east through the afternoon. Cooler temperatures with breezy to windy conditions expected today. Scattered light rain or snow showers will be possible as a cold front moves through this afternoon. In the upper levels an open trough was situated over the southern Canadian Prairies with a couple speed/vort maxes rounding the circulation, one over South Dakota and the next over southern Alberta. Cooler temperatures are expected today with highs in the low 30s north to low 40s south.
A flat ridge will be located over the area on Friday leading to dry weather and warmer than average temperatures. with flat ridging ahead of a series of fast moving troughs. Dry and breezy conditions will continue, with temperatures near to slightly warmer than average. A cold front will move east of the area overnight, with northwesterly winds decreasing across the western SD plains late tonight.
337 AM CST Thu Nov 26 2020 A weak cold front currently bisects the CWA and will continue to shift east through the morning. Another cold front slides across the region late Thursday into Friday. At the mid-levels, the general set-up will contain a moderately amplified ridge located over the western CONUS, a trough over the eastern CONUS, and a weak cut-off low over the four corners region that will not impact this area. The CWA will remain in the warmer sector as westerly winds advect warmer air in at the lower levels and surface.
Westerly sfc flow will prevail during the day, before a modest cold front moves into the area near the end of the forecast period.
Overall, the general pattern will be influenced by a large upper level low that sets up shop over the eastern 1/3 of the country while a quasi-omega block develops over the western half of the country.
With sfc ridging having shifted north and east of our region this morning, already beginning to see SE winds returning to our region which should aid in the warmup process as we move into the afternoon. These cigs will gradually lower later this evening through the overnight hours, N of a warm front that will slowly lift N into Deep E TX/Cntrl LA late.
However, if they stick around, those northern counties will be blanketed and remain warmer than the rest of Middle TN.
Surface ridging will produce light winds through the period. Chattanooga Airport, TN 44 67 46 61 40 / 0 0 20 10 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 44 64 43 58 37 / 0 0 10 0 10 Oak Ridge, TN 43 64 42 58 37 / 0 0 10 0 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 42 60 40 56 32 / 0 0 10 0 0.
156 PM CST Thu Nov 26 2020 A lovely Thanksgiving is ongoing with temperatures in the low to mid 50s this afternoon. However, a weak cold front is just making its way into northwestern Missouri and will drop southeast across the area this evening.
148 PM MST Thu Nov 26 2020 Current surface map places weak trof across western South Dakota.
With high pressure slow to move eastward out of western Kansas Friday, look for afternoon highs up into the upper 40s(F) to the lower/mid 50s(F).
Models show a weak cold front reaching the western fringes of the PAH forecast area by 12z Friday, then making its way quickly across our area by 18z.
Gusty south winds will begin to increase early this afternoon at eastern Oklahoma TAF sites as low level jet axis shifts east into the area ahead of low pressure system.
A frontal boundary extended from southeast Nebraska across north central Kansas to low pressure over west central Oklahoma at 19Z. Some increase in clouds tonight will keep temperatures a little warmer across east central Kansas with readings in the lower 30s while lows in the 20s are expected elsewhere. High pressure builds into eastern Kansas on Friday while the southern stream low moves east into New Mexico. Modest CAA on Friday will keep temperatures cooler on Friday with highs in the lower 50s expected.
837 AM MST Thu Nov 26 2020 Sent an update this morning to adjust chances for snow this morning changing over to rain this afternoon as the weak cold front / short wave piece of energy pushes southeastward through our region. Previous discussion: A cold front will pass through the forecast area today bringing with it a chance for light rain and snow showers. Upper ridging over the western U.
A split in the flow pattern will bring an upper trough into the western Dakotas and the Nebraska Panhandle this evening. Models show the northern trough pushing east of the area Friday. A closed low is expected to develop over the Four Corners region, moving east through the day.
Models are trying to clear the clouds out quickly behind the trough overnight, but upstream obs suggest they will hold on a little longer. High temperatures should be similar to today, in the lower 40s. Many models are holding on to a warmer temp idea, so trended toward MOS guidance to get colder temps.
105 PM EST Thu Nov 26 2020 The cold front that brought early morning rain showers has pushed east and exited the area, with high pressure now building in.
Should continue to see the stratus deck erode later this afternoon/evening as an upper level wave swings through the region, with overnight lows forecast to fall into the low to mid 20s thanks to efficient radiational cooling.
Florida no doubt has the best weather for this year's holiday, with nil rain chances and afternoon highs in the lower 80s. This weather brought to you by an enlongated ridge axis draped across the peninsula, with weakening southeast/east flow. Overnight lows in the low to mid 60s. Light SE winds will back easterly this afternoon with a fluctuating position of the ridge axis. (modified previous) Low level ridge axis extends SW from the Atlc across northern Florida, just north of the local Atlc waters.
A weak cold front was bisecting the state from northeast to southwest, switching southwest winds to the northwest. A few mid-level clouds are possible overnight, otherwise expect low temperatures in the 20s followed by slightly cooler conditions Friday with highs in the upper 30s north to mid 40s south along with an abundance of sunshine.
An upper level trough has departed to the southeast and a ridge is now building into the Pacific Northwest with northerly flow aloft. Meanwhile, dry easterly flow aloft will keep the ridges clear and relatively warm. Some coastal areas will see temperatures near or at freezing Friday morning. The ridge axis will break to the east of the area Friday and the flow aloft will gradually become zonal.
145 PM MST Thu Nov 26 2020 A weak trough will slowly drop south across the forecast area this afternoon before closing-off over Arizona tonight. Periods of light snow are expected to diminish this evening across the northern and central sections of western Colorado with up to an inch or two of snowfall accumulation possible over the higher terrain with lighter amounts expected in valley locations. On Friday morning, the closed low will slowly move east into New Mexico with snow developing across southeastern Utah and southwestern Colorado. Based on the current track of the storm expect potentially only light accumulations across the southwestern valleys with several inches over the higher terrain.
1201 PM CST Thu Nov 26 2020 For the 26/18Z Thanksgiving TAF period, a warm front will approach and stay to the south of our airspace, however, overrunning SSW flow will still bring MVFR/IFR impacts to all terminals. Cu fields will spread out ahead of the warm front this afternoon, lowering to MVFR cigs for KLFK by 27/06Z and all other terminals by 27/09Z. With sfc ridging having shifted north and east of our region this morning, already beginning to see SE winds returning to our region which should aid in the warmup process as we move into the afternoon.
A weak upper level trof will continue to move southeast through the area overnight.
201 PM CST Thu Nov 26 2020 Water vapor imagery currently shows a broad area of southwest flow aloft from the Plains into the Ohio Valley with a positive tilted upper trough extending from the Central Great Basin into the Desert Southwest. At the surface, a weak cold front extends from western IA into central KS and into the OK Panhandle. Models have come into good agreement tracking the upper low across the Southern Plains on Sat into Sat night. The ECMWF is more robust in closing off the upper low along the KS/OK border which would result in increased precip chances for Wed into Wed night with a chance at some wintry precip. At the same time we are looking for afternoon RH values in the 25 to 40% range with the lower part of this range for areas west of I-135.
(This evening through Friday) The above normal temperatures will come to an end by tomorrow, as a cold front works its way south across the area this evening and overnight. A better chance of rain will occur tomorrow night in advance of an upper level low approaching from the west.
While portions of the western Florida Panhandle will see highs in the low 80s this afternoon, areas like Mobile could struggle to reach the mid 70s. Highs Friday afternoon will then be in the lower to mid 70s over southeast Mississippi as well as most of southwest and south-central Alabama.
Winds will shift around to the south-southeast this afternoon as a warm front lifts north.
The sounding also observed a 500 mb height of 5910 meters, indicating the strength of a mid-level ridge axis through the Straits. A high pressure ridge axis extends from north of Bermuda back across North Florida.
Better rain chances (and lower ceilings) expected to begin late tonight and continue into Friday as the sfc front lifts nwd as a warm front before an initial disturbance aloft moves into the region and helps produce widespread showers/few storms late in the period.
Winds to remain light southwest as high pressure shifts over the lower Mississippi Valley, and a weak front approaches from the northwest. After a period of partly to mostly clear conditions this evening, clouds will be on the increase again overnight as a weak cold front approaches from the northwest.
A cold front is approaching the region from the west. Slightly cooler air settles in tonight with low temperatures dipping into the 20s.
1026 AM MST Thu Nov 26 2020 Pretty quiet weather expected for Thanksgiving day as a weak cold front has pushed south into Colorado last night. Trough axis associated with the front will remain over the region through most of the day today, so can't rule out some snow shower/flurry activity across southeast Wyoming through the day. Cold temperatures expected tonight with lows in the teens for most areas, but single digits expected for the high valleys west of I-25.
The front will bring slightly cooler conditions to the area on Friday as highs in the lower to middle 50s are expected.
The warmth will soon come to an end as a cold front arrives this evening.
1141 AM CST Thu Nov 26 2020 Stationary front draped from roughly Pascagoula to Dulac transitioning to warm front.
With high pressure slow to move eastward out of western Kansas Friday, look for afternoon highs up into the upper 40s(F) to the lower/mid 50s(F). A trough which at the time of this discussion is located in Nevada will continue to move south and east and develop into a closed low over the four corners region on Friday. Over the central plains an area of high pressure will settle in southwest Kansas and we should have mainly sunny skies with northeast winds.
139 PM MST Thu Nov 26 2020 Weak cold frontal boundary continues to dig to the southeast across the lower Midwest with high pressure dominating the Rockie Mountains. Trough axis is expected to shift to the east with an upper level closed low developing just south of the Four Corners tomorrow afternoon.
18z surface map indicated a weak cool front from northeast into central IA, while 1020 mb high pressure was centered over the lower Mississippi Valley. Resulting southwest low level flow was working to erode the low level cloud deck, and had advanced east of the IL River by 2 pm. Expect clearing to continue through much of the central CWA into this evening, then cloud cover should redevelop ahead of the advancing cold front.
223 PM CST Thu Nov 26 2020 At the surface, a prefrontal trough was draped over central North Dakota as a cold front was located across the northwest.
A weak cold front has moved through the Panhandles today resulting in breezy northerly winds and slightly cooler conditions.
A flat pressure field, slightly influenced by Plains low pressure, will support light to moderate southeast to south winds and coastal showers. The main action will be a mid level short wave trough digging from the Northwest United States to form a low over the Southwest by Friday. Out ahead of the low, and plunging into Central Texas, will be high pressure and associated colder air.
326 PM CST Thu Nov 26 2020 Weak high pressure is currently over the CWA, with a frontal boundary approaching from the northwest. High pressure will build back in over the area behind the exiting front late tonight into the day Friday, with the ridge getting flattened Friday night as low pressure drops southward over Canada. A few locations along and west of the Missouri River may reach the lower 50s.
Current surface map places weak trof across western South Dakota.
309 PM CST Thu Nov 26 2020 High pressure is forecast to build right over the Tennessee Valley tonight. There is some uncertainty whether just dry enough air will slide east with the area of high pressure to keep widespread dense fog at bay. It should be warmer ahead of the front with highs climbing into the mid to upper 60s.
340 PM CST Thu Nov 26 2020 Although high pressure is dominating the surface map at the moment. This disturbance is moving into the region on the cooler side of that front initially, then using the boundary for additional lift.
Recent surface analysis shows a cold front exiting southeast Nebraska, extending northeastward into Wisconsin and southwest to the panhandle of Texas. Recent water vapor imagery shows a mid-level trough extending from Manitoba/Ontario southwestward to southern California and is expected to have little effect beyond some mid and upper-level cloud development.
Friday to be pretty quiet with some sunshine breaking out during the afternoon hours, and highs in the low to mid 30s.
Showers and thunderstorms started early this morning over the coastal waters ahead of the warm front that will move north into the area.
740 PM EST Thu Nov 26 2020 Weakening cold front will stall across the southeast U.
At all terminals, northerly winds will increase during the day tomorrow behind a cold frontal passage, with gusts approaching 20 kts. These winds should weaken this evening and then shift out of the north to northwest overnight as the weak cold front pushes southeast through the CWA. Cooler conditions are forecast for Friday.
A low pressure system was approaching the state and will pass through tonight and Friday. This system will bring cooler weather and a chance of snow showers in the White Mountains. Just some cooler temperatures and elevated wind speeds can be anticipated.
Weak high pressure is currently over the CWA, with a frontal boundary approaching from the northwest. High pressure will build back in over the area behind the exiting front late tonight into the day Friday, with the ridge getting flattened Friday night as low pressure drops southward over Canada. A few locations along and west of the Missouri River may reach the lower 50s.
High pressure builds Friday through the weekend with sunny and mild days followed by clear and cool nights. High pressure over the region will act like a buffer keeping the storm track mainly to the north.
438 PM MST Thu Nov 26 2020 A weak trough will slowly drop south across the forecast area this afternoon before closing-off over Arizona tonight. Periods of light snow are expected to diminish this evening across the northern and central sections of western Colorado with up to an inch or two of snowfall accumulation possible over the higher terrain with lighter amounts expected in valley locations. On Friday morning, the closed low will slowly move east into New Mexico with snow developing across southeastern Utah and southwestern Colorado. Based on the current track of the storm expect potentially only light accumulations across the southwestern valleys with several inches over the higher terrain.
Prevailing VFR will remain for all terminals, but winds will shift out of the N/NE behind a cold front currently pressing south through Panhandle. The warmth will soon come to an end as a cold front arrives this evening.
344 PM MST Thu Nov 26 2020 Current surface map places weak trof across western South Dakota.
The trough responsible for the cool conditions is currently in the process of closing off across Northwest Arizona and will continue to track eastward towards New Mexico overnight. In the meantime, strong and focused lift ahead the closed low will act on the very modest moisture in place across Northern Arizona to squeeze out a band of sprinkles and snow flurries (above 4000 ft), mainly east of Kingman.
These winds should weaken this evening and then shift out of the north to northwest overnight as the weak cold front pushes southeast through the CWA. Cooler conditions are forecast for Friday.
517 PM CST Thu Nov 26 2020 (This evening through Friday) The above normal temperatures will come to an end by tomorrow, as a cold front works its way south across the area this evening and overnight. A better chance of rain will occur tomorrow night in advance of an upper level low approaching from the west.
At the surface, a prefrontal trough was draped over central North Dakota as a cold front was located across the northwest.
525 PM CST Thu Nov 26 2020 A lovely Thanksgiving is ongoing with temperatures in the low to mid 50s this afternoon. However, a weak cold front is just making its way into northwestern Missouri and will drop southeast across the area this evening.
/Issued 248 PM EST Thu Nov 26 2020/ Thanksgiving afternoon has shaped up well across north Georgia but less so across central Georgia where a slow-moving cold front continues to spark showers and a couple isolated thunderstorms.
253 PM MST Thu Nov 26 2020 The weak cold front that came through the region today brought a bit more snow to some locations and not as much snow as expected to other locations.
The elongated positively tilted trough will split apart, with passage of northern stream trough into the upper Midwest. The band of mid level moisture that has accompanied the elongated trough before it splits in two will be replaced by drier air from the north. Clouds in place over the higher terrain will be on the decrease late tonight into Friday.
/28/ Although high pressure is dominating the surface map at the moment. This disturbance is moving into the region on the cooler side of that front initially, then using the boundary for additional lift.
High pressure is expected to bring clearing skies during Friday that will extend through Friday night.
The gradient appears to remain in place through Saturday morning before a upper trof crosses the region breaking down the surface pressure gradient. Strong gusts will persist through Saturday morning, before tapering off once again as a upper level trof crosses the region. Saturday will see common gusts of 25 mph across the region east of Billings, as the trof crosses the region.
At the surface, a prefrontal trough was draped over central North Dakota as a cold front was located across the northwest. How warm it gets on Saturday is predicated on the timing of an approaching cold front Saturday night. If this boundary were a bit quicker we could see cooler highs across the west and north, and vice versa.
High pressure and light winds will favor seabreeze development this afternoon at coastal terminals before calm winds return overnight and the potential for fog returns.
However, temperatures this morning will start in the upper 20s to low 30s for the most part as the cold front will bring some cooler conditions. Overnight Friday into Saturday we will return to modest southwest flow with upper level ridge moving overhead keeping us dry through the period with mostly clear skies beginning today and continuing through Saturday. Saturday appears to be a bit warmer with temperatures expected to reach at least the mid 40s with highs possibly reaching the upper 40s.
959 PM MST Thu Nov 26 2020 Weak cold frontal boundary continues to dig to the southeast across the lower Midwest with high pressure dominating the Rockie Mountains. Trough axis is expected to shift to the east with an upper level closed low developing just south of the Four Corners tomorrow afternoon.
Highs Friday afternoon will then be in the lower to mid 70s over southeast Mississippi as well as most of southwest and south-central Alabama.
With high pressure slow to move eastward out of western Kansas Friday, look for afternoon highs up into the upper 40s(F) to the lower/mid 50s(F). There remains a low chance for precip for southern portions of southwest and south central Kansas Saturday as medium range models continue to show a closed upper low pushing slowly eastward through the panhandle of Texas and Oklahoma.
1043 PM MST Thu Nov 26 2020 A weak trough will slowly drop south across the forecast area this afternoon before closing-off over Arizona tonight. Periods of light snow are expected to diminish this evening across the northern and central sections of western Colorado with up to an inch or two of snowfall accumulation possible over the higher terrain with lighter amounts expected in valley locations. On Friday morning, the closed low will slowly move east into New Mexico with snow developing across southeastern Utah and southwestern Colorado. Based on the current track of the storm expect potentially only light accumulations across the southwestern valleys with several inches over the higher terrain.
19z subjective surface analysis indicates a warm front just to the southwest of the state, with a cold front analyzed across central Kansas and western Oklahoma. A closed upper level low will approach the mid south from the west during the second half of this forecast period.
Models continue to depict broad high pressure well in control of the Florida weather pattern, while a Low/Sfc front stretches across the SE CONUS. The high pressure ridge axis gradually migrates southward and across the state through Saturday, keeping a generally stable air mass over the area. Expect temperatures to remain near normals each day, with afternoon highs in the low 80s, and morning lows in the upper 60s to low 70s.
(Today and tonight) Cool high pressure, centered over Colorado this morning, will shift slowly east through tonight, and should be centered near southeast Kansas early Saturday.
1154 PM CST Thu Nov 26 2020 Updated for 06Z aviation discussion 06Z TAF discussion: VFR conditions wl continue north and cntrl but flight restrictions wl continue to lower in the south as moisture increases ahead of a weak warm front.