Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
/issued / 0614 AM CDT SUN MAY 15 2016 Cooler than normal temperatures to continue through most of the week. These showers were embedded in 700mb theta-e ridge, under the right entrance region of a 250mb jet core.
Weak high pressure will move in providing partly sunny conditions (high clouds) with an afternoon seabreeze. Weak high pressure moves just north of the waters this afternoon.
1100 PM MDT FRI SEP 16 2016 Latest upper air analysis shows the closed low moving east over the Northern Plains. A cold front extends south from the closed low across the plains. Tonight the clear weather will continue until the overnight hours when an upper level short wave trough will be develop over East Central Colorado. Am not very optimistic for rainfall due to the weak lift associated with the short wave trough. Am expecting storms to develop along the surface feature as the short wave trough deepens overhead. Storm activity will increase during the late afternoon as the short wave trough continues to deepen overhead and instability increases.
The cold front that has moved down through the panhandle has become somewhat masked by convection but will likely still be a player for the rest of the afternoon and evening. Low level helicities will also rapidly increase as the low level jet increases early this evening especially over the southwestern South Plains. The aforementioned cold frontal boundary will retreat tomorrow leading to broad southeasterly flow which will promote an afternoon and evening of convection from the west.
High pressure from the surface through the mid levels of the atmosphere has produced rain free conditions across central Alabama. Increased southeast flow below 850mb has produced a modest increase in low level moisture along with cooler afternoon temperatures. Temperatures are averaging about 5 degrees cooler than yesterday afternoon. A short wave trof digging southward into the Plains States will pull Gulf moisture northward tonight.
913 PM EDT FRI SEP 16 2016 High pressure will ridge into the forecast area from the north and Julia will linger just off the South Carolina coast through the weekend.
Temps will be held warmer with persistent cloud cover and rains, along with mild dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s. Winds will remain SW through the night under the influence of WAA flows ahead of the upper trough in the Plains. Several disturbances ahead of a cold frontal boundary currently extending from Minnesota southward through Oklahoma will be the main features over the upcoming day. Lows tonight in the mid to upper 60s in the moist air mass ahead of the approaching cold front. The cold front should finally move through the rest of the state Saturday evening.
This will mainly be a radiational fog scenario as the low levels remain fairly moist with clouds clearing. Forecast challenge - Precipitation for this evening and tonight as the cold front pushes southeast. A ridge moves in for Saturday which will bring a pleasant day across the Plains.
Upper longwave trof aiding in pushing the front southward is distanced quite a bit to the north over South Dakota, but southwesterly flow trailing south southwest of the system continues to draw more subtle features over the front in our area. With more insolation on Saturday, and high pressure settling over the area, have highs in the upper 70s to near 80 with light winds.
Water vapor imagery shows another wave moving toward southeast ND, rotating around the parent upper low over east central ND. On the negative side, 0-6km shear is weak, with the higher values moving into eastern MN.
Diminishing rain chances and warmer temperatures on Saturday highlight the short term. As the upper low finally kicks out of the state late this evening, expect gradual clearing to take place from west to east. Behind the low, winds will become somewhat breezy from the northwest this afternoon, especially in the south. A brief period of upper level ridging will occur over the region on Saturday, bringing mostly sunny skies and above average highs in the mid to upper 70s. A few locations even may see the low 80s.
The ridge of high pressure that has been over the region is breaking down and will give way to westerly flow by Saturday. This will usher in a cold front Saturday which will bring some rain mainly to the northern portion of the forecast area.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 70 91 70 89 / 10 10 20 50 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 68 91 68 87 / 10 10 20 40 Oak Ridge, TN 68 91 69 86 / 20 10 20 50 Tri Cities Airport, TN 63 88 63 83 / 20 20 20 40.
Upper level trough continues to advance east of the region with ridging building to our west into Saturday. Models suggest that low stratus to our northwest will dip across the highway 14 corridor into southwest Minnesota and portion of northwest Iowa tonight. These clouds should exit the region Saturday morning as the upper low moves further east away from the region.
Scattered high to mid clouds moving in from the west with increased westerly flow over the forecast area due to an upper level trough along the western Canadian coast. Increased westerly flow aloft Saturday will also bring gusty winds to the higher terrain.
Satellite and observations show that the low clouds from this morning have moved to the southeast. Surface analysis has the cold front to the east of the forecast area and winds are from the northwest this afternoon.
745 PM EDT FRI SEP 16 2016 Current satellite loop shows some fair weather CU developing across the area under the large high pressure ridge nosing down the eastern seaboard. Moisture does increase slightly Sat as ridge begins to break down tonight allowing the main axis of moisture now over the MS/LA/AR area to move east. Will keep an eye on this closely because if the ridge breaks down faster than expected we could see precip move into western portions of the state late Sat afternoon/evening.
1105 PM CDT Fri Sep 16 2016 Surface map at 2 pm had a cold front extending from central Upper Michigan through central WI. Broken band of showers/thunderstorms ongoing along this cold front. Area will be in between departing cold front and mid-level closed low approaching from the Northern Plains. but stratus circulating around the aforementioned closed low and winds staying in the 5- 10mph range should hold off fog formation. closed low will be filling as it tracks into Ontario. A ridge of high pressure drifts across the region Saturday night for mostly clear skies. to the lower 50s elsewhere.
/issued 314 PM CDT FRI SEP 16 2016/ (Tonight and Saturday) The NAM and GFS models both close an upper low off the southern California/northern Baja coast overnight while an upper high builds over southern Texas. As the upper high over southern Texas builds further northward and over the southern portions of the CWA during the day on Saturday,the best chance of rainfall will be relegated to the northern half of the forecast area. Will not see much change in the highs and lows over the area with morning lows in the upper 60s to around 70 and the afternoon highs around the 90 degree mark.
There is fairly decent amount of convective cloudiness over the mountians, foothills, Palmer and Cheyenne ridges. A weak upper trough axis will move across Colorado through the day Saturday with northwesterly flow aloft behind it by afternoon. For temperatures, Saturday's highs look to be 2-4 C warmer than this afternoon's. Exiting weak upper level trof on Saturday night over far Eastern Colorado may still kick of a few showers during the evening hours. QG fields showing decent downward forcing behind the trof Saturday night with clearing skies.
1028 PM EDT FRI SEP 16 2016 High pressure will extend in to the area through the Saturday.
After some light fog late tonight, convection chances will pick up as a cold front approaches.
Satellite and radar imagery show a few dissipating mid-level clouds and no showers about as an upper ridge nudges in from the west tonight. Templer Previous Discussion - Synoptic Setup: short term begins with a trough dropping down from central Canada and terminating in a closed low over the Dakotas. A ridge exists over the Pacific Northwest and northern High Plains. This afternoon through Saturday: ridge across the area will form a high pressure Chinook overnight and then drop south.
A broad area of low pressure over the western Gulf of Mexico will continue to advect deep layer moisture over the area. High temps will be cooler tomorrow due to clouds and rain climbing to the mid to upper 80s for most inland areas and middle 80s along the coast. Lows tonight will also be warmer than the last couple of nights falling to the lower to middle 70s inland and the mid to upper 70s along the coast.
A pair of upper level weather disturbances along with an approaching cold front is expected to bring wet weather to central Indiana starting on Friday night. when a cold front over the upper midwest is expected to push across Indiana.
None of the mesoscale models are handling the precip placement too well with this weak short wave pushing in ahead of the long-wave trof.
810 PM EDT Fri Sep 16 2016 Southerly winds on the west side of a high pressure system pushing eastward will allow an increase in humidity overnight and increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms. A muggy weekend is in store with occasional showers and thunderstorms as a cold front will be slow to advance through the Ohio Valley. first with some pre- frontal development and increasing LLJ and then ahead of the slow moving cold front for Saturday night.
More breaks in the clouds helped early afternoon temperatures warm up into the lower 80s over much of the area. Areas behind a cold front, from Freeport to Iowa City and points to the northwest, were generally in the 70s. A broken line of showers and isolated thunderstorms continued to develop along the cold front, near and just west of the Mississippi River. Expect near normal highs from the low to mid 70s north, to near 80 degrees south.
/issued 320 PM CDT FRI SEP 16 2016/ An upper ridge continues to bring hot summer time temperatures to the Mid-South this afternoon. Temperatures are currently in the lower to mid 90s. The ridge will break down tonight which will allow a cold front to push into the Mid-South over the weekend.
Given the weakening forcing S of the trough. Have also adjusted sky conditions to account for the extensive AC/cirrus associated with a weak upper low/trough along the S LA coast. The H850 trough is progged to linger over the Ern zones Saturday and will focus widely sct convection by afternoon over these areas. Low clouds and patchy fog will develop toward daybreak as Gulf moisture increases ahead of a cold front that will approach our region on Saturday. Cu field will set up once this low level moisture lifts through late morning into the afternoon hours.
/issued 249 PM CDT FRI SEP 16 2016/ SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday night): Winds remain generally light and variable across the region as weak low pressure roams across the area. Saturday, a few shower chances are still possible along the seabreeze as moisture remains in place, but best instability remains to the east over the Gulf as the midlevel low remains in place just off the Louisiana coast, and H5 ridging rebuilds across south Texas.
Models continue to trend drier as high pressure over South Central Texas will remain sandwiched between a disturbance in the Gulf and weak trough in the Central Plains. On Saturday, mid and upper level ridging will begin to build over the region.
805 PM EDT FRI SEP 16 2016 A slow moving weak cold front will push east across the region this weekend.
Onshore sea breeze component along the coast this evening will collapse within the next hour or so as loss of daytime heating continues with a light northeast to east wind flow along with slight seas expected across the Gulf waters the rest of tonight as weak high pressure over the southeastern States remains in control.
Low clouds and patchy fog will develop toward daybreak as Gulf moisture increases ahead of a cold front that will approach our region on Saturday. Cu field will set up once this low level moisture lifts through late morning into the afternoon hours. /issued 425 PM CDT FRI SEP 16 2016/ This afternoon very little convection had developed in association with an inverted trough shifting West across the Gulf Coast. Weak high pressure was squeezed between broad upper level trough of low pressure trailing from parent closed low over the Upper Mid-West and the Gulf system. A cold front had moved South and extended across parts of Kansas, Western Oklahoma, and into the Pan Handle of Texas.
Area mesonet sites show the highest amounts were along the KS/OK border and just west of our CWA. upper trough will be across the Great Lakes.
Deep mixing was in progress again with temps heating into the lower 90s at this hour with a few locations experiencing wind gusts over 20mph.
647 PM CDT FRI SEP 16 2016 A trough over the Northern Plains with a negative tilt will continue to trot eastward today. The cold front associated with this wave is currently positioned from northeast to south central Kansas and into the Panhandles. Forecast challenge - Precipitation for this evening and tonight as the cold front pushes southeast. A ridge moves in for Saturday which will bring a pleasant day across the Plains.
720 PM EDT FRI SEP 16 2016 High pressure will ridge into the forecast area from the north and Julia will linger just off the South Carolina coast through the weekend.
1246 AM EDT SAT SEP 17 2016 High pressure will move southeast of the region through Saturday.
Convection has ignited on the leading edge of the low and extends south along the cold front positioned along the western Minnesota border. The low and associated convection will lift into the Northland though the evening. A few storms have the potential to become strong to severe this evening with a threat for large hail as freezing levels are only around 10kft with favorable shear and CAPE. Guidance suggests the low center and upper level max reaches north central Minnesota by midnight, then continues to push to the northeast into the tip of the MInnesota Arrowhead by daybreak Saturday. Have continued to carry thunder in the arrowhead through Saturday morning as the upper level low will be overhead providing sufficient instability for a few thunderstorms.
929 PM EDT Fri Sep 16 2016 Showers and a few thunderstorms are likely at times over the weekend with the approach and passage of a cold front. Ridging is expected to move east of the area this evening as an upper trough and associated surface cold front advances out of the Midwest. Slowed the arrival of the likely to categorical pops to the late afternoon/evening as the trough and surface front slowly approach.
/Saturday night through Friday/ Weather: Quiet weather Confidence: High With the upper trough discussed in the short term departing north and east of the Great Lakes region, high pressure will fill in for this weekend.
The short term forecast appears to be a battle between the higher moisture levels near the coast and drier air further west. Models are not as aggressive with a western push of the upper low center.
41 Current satellite loop shows some fair weather CU developing across the area under the large high pressure ridge nosing down the eastern seaboard. Moisture does increase slightly Sat as ridge begins to break down tonight allowing the main axis of moisture now over the MS/LA/AR area to move east. Will keep an eye on this closely because if the ridge breaks down faster than expected we could see precip move into western portions of the state late Sat afternoon/evening.
820 PM EDT Fri Sep 16 2016 High pressure will build down into the Carolinas over the weekend as Tropical Storm Julia continues to meander off the Carolina coast.
High pressure is starting to build back over us and a drier atmosphere will lessen precip chances and increase temps. /issued 249 PM CDT FRI SEP 16 2016/ SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday night): Winds remain generally light and variable across the region as weak low pressure roams across the area. Saturday, a few shower chances are still possible along the seabreeze as moisture remains in place, but best instability remains to the east over the Gulf as the midlevel low remains in place just off the Louisiana coast, and H5 ridging rebuilds across south Texas.
831 PM EDT FRI SEP 16 2016 Dry weather will continue through Saturday morning thanks to high pressure moving east of New England.
928 PM EDT FRI SEP 16 2016 High pressure will move southeast of the region through Saturday.
Lows drop into the low 40s across the western counties, where terrain influences will allow temperatures to drop a little more. High pressure and dry weather persist through Saturday.
702 PM EDT Fri Sep 16 2016 High pressure moves to our east tonight, then a cold front slowly moves through the region this weekend.
Until forcing increases with the approach of the upper level trough and surface cold front later in the weekend, convection should remain scattered at best.
Again, upper level flow is expected to become increasingly swly as the weekend progresses, until finally an upper level trough moves thru the mid state region by early on Mon. Dry conditions with temps closer to seasonal normal values at least thru the first part of next work week, but temps should once again warm to to above seasonal normal values, as ridging influences sfc and aloft build into the region, but sfc ridging influences eventually shift ewd as next work week progresses. After some light fog late tonight, convection chances will pick up as a cold front approaches.
838 PM EDT FRI SEP 16 2016 High pressure will extend from off the New England coast southwest through the Middle Atlantic states, including NC through Saturday. A cold front will approach from the NW late in the weekend. Even though high pressure aloft and at the surface will begin to break-down, expect generally dry conditions to persist, with only isolated shower or two possible across the far eastern zones given the continued potential for outer bands of Julia to move onshore. Highs in the lower to mid 80s.
827 PM PDT Fri Sep 16 2016 An early Autumn Pacific storm system will arrive over the weekend with wet conditions, breezy winds and cooler temperatures expected.
/Issued 300 PM CDT FRI SEP 16 2016/ Cold front moving through the southeast Texas Panhandle will be the main focus for showers and thunderstorms through this evening. Our focus will then turn to the short wave trough moving southeast from the Central Rockies onto the plains for Saturday. This short wave trough moves across western Kansas and the Oklahoma Panhandle during the afternoon on Saturday.
802 PM EDT Fri Sep 16 2016 Southerly winds on the west side of a high pressure system pushing eastward will allow an increase in humidity overnight and increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms. A muggy weekend is in store with occasional showers and thunderstorms as a cold front will be slow to advance through the Ohio Valley. Mid level ridging is pulling eastward as the isentropically driven storms approach the area on the backside of the departing high. first with some pre- frontal development and increasing LLJ and then ahead of the slow moving cold front for Saturday night.
Forecast soundings are showing decent saturation in the lower levels up to about 850mb, starting at about 03Z this evening and until tomorrow morning. These changes would be due to the dry air that is filtering in ahead of the weak boundary moving in from the northwest, as well as subsidence pushing in along the backside of the low pressure system sitting off to our east.
634 PM CDT FRI SEP 16 2016 Increased the isolated shower coverage through 3z across the east as a low pressure system continues to exit the region this evening. Out on the eastern and southern edges of the cwa, though, where there's been more sun than clouds, temperatures have been able to warm into the low to mid 70s. Within the past hour, there has also been a small uptick in convective coverage across the cwa as the primary upper vort max within this upper level low pressure area continues to spin eastward over the cwa. As such, numerical guidance has an area of cooler low 40s-type readings for lows across portions of central South Dakota, with higher values further east where low clouds are expected to hang on pretty much the entire night.
Areas that received rain are also cooler than previously forecast, so the hourly grids were brought in line with current observations. None of the mesoscale models are handling the precip placement too well with this weak short wave pushing in ahead of the long-wave trof.
A weak area of low pressure near the mouth of the Sabine River will continue to move inland through the night while gradually weakening. The higher moisture levels and modest upper lvl support associated with this feature will keep scattered to numerous showers and a few storms in the forecast through Saturday.
as much of the CWA remains on the west side of a broad trough of low pressure. The short term forecast appears to be a battle between the higher moisture levels near the coast and drier air further west. Models are not as aggressive with a western push of the upper low center.
Otherwise, under partly cloudy skies, temperatures in the Florida Keys are in the lower 80s. Do not expect the current showers off the southwest coast of the mainland to persist much longer, thanks to the low level resistance evident on the sounding.
535 PM MDT FRI SEP 16 2016 Satellite pix depict area of low pressure spinning across the Dakotas early this afternoon. Meanwhile, at the surface northwest winds have turned gusty across the high plains.
705 PM CDT FRI SEP 16 2016 Several disturbances ahead of a cold frontal boundary currently extending from Minnesota southward through Oklahoma will be the main features over the upcoming day. Lows tonight in the mid to upper 60s in the moist air mass ahead of the approaching cold front. The cold front should finally move through the rest of the state Saturday evening.
Opted to add a mention of patchy fog, primarily across northern/central Oklahoma, where cooler air and clearing skies may assist in the development of some fog. This evening and mainly overnight, additional showers and storms may develop in the Texas Panhandle as a cold front continues to moves lowly southward and 85h flow increases.
Going into tonight, convection will continue into late evening hours as the low level jet continues to interact with the outflow.
Upper level low was located over northwest MN. Upper low forecast to open up. Water vapor loop indicated one short wave was rotating around the upper low and was located over north central MN. Precipitation was decreasing in area and intensity with loss of heating and upper low moving out. Water vapor imagery shows another wave moving toward southeast ND, rotating around the parent upper low over east central ND. On the negative side, 0-6km shear is weak, with the higher values moving into eastern MN.
1036 PM CDT FRI SEP 16 2016 Still expect showers and thunderstorms to continue through most of the night as there will be strong low level moisture convergence across much of the area ahead of a mid level trough currently over KS/OK. The trough will pass to the east on Saturday morning, but the cold front will still be over the northern part of the CWA. Britt (Saturday Night) Isolated showers and possibly a rumble of thunder remains possible during the evening hours along and ahead of the cold front. slightly cooler and drier (lower dewpoints) air will filter into the bi-state area. Low temperatures certainly look cooler than the previous few nights.
1005 PM EDT FRI SEP 16 2016 A slow moving weak cold front will push east across the region this weekend.
951 PM EDT Fri Sep 16 2016 High pressure moves to our east tonight, then a cold front slowly moves through the region this weekend.
1100 PM MDT FRI SEP 16 2016 A weak upper level low pressure trough will bring some mountain showers and isolated evening thunderstorms tonight otherwise dry conditions are expected. Dry high pressure will move in behind the trough with clearing and slightly cooler temperatures Saturday with isolated showers in the northwest mountains.