Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1013 AM MST Thu Dec 7 2017 Upper level analysis shows low pressure over southern Hudson Bay, with large trough covering a good portion of the US. A ridge lies along the west coast with strong northwest flow remaining over the Northern Plains. Upper ridge will begin to shift east today as warmer air slowly returns to the area.
203 PM CST Thu Dec 7 2017 A secondary frontal boundary pushed through last night bringing our temperatures to the lowest of the year so far this morning with a stiff breeze and single digit wind chills. A weak elevated warm front will pass through overnight helping to keep winds between 5-10mph throughout the night and shifting to the W-SW.
Despite the possibility of some isolated sleet/snow mixed in with the rain, above freezing surface conditions will keep impacts virtually nil into the evening. ground temps should be above freezing so not expecting accumulations there, but can't rule out a dusting on stationary metal objects etc. /ISSUED 1107 AM CST Thu Dec 7 2017/ A cold front was pushing into Southeast Texas from the north at mid morning. It is a bit ironic that my NWS career started in the lower peninsula of Michigan dealing with winter time snow events.
Some light echoes noted on KSHV radar likely not reaching the ground in most locations, as the dry air continues to deepen ahead of the approaching upper trof. Despite freezing temperatures expected tonight, any precip that is able to fall will be too light to accumulate. Freeze warning remains in effect for tonight, as we haven't seen widespread freezing temperatures across the region for over a month. Upper trof will continue ewd tonight and bring any precip to an end by around sunrise. Skies to continue clearing as the trof moves ewd, and another cold and dry December day will round out the standard work week.
1236 PM CST Thu Dec 7 2017 Special 18z sounding indicates continued cooling in the low levels of the atmosphere, but the mid-levels remain rather warm. 850mb temperatures cooled nearly 5C from the 12z sounding, and a small layer of air extending for less than one thousand feet has fallen below freezing at this level. Until this warm nose aloft drops to 2C or less, the prospect of freezing precipitation will remain limited. At worst, a few sleet pellets may mix in with the rain due to the small freezing layer around 850mb today.
224 PM CST Thu Dec 7 2017 The slow-moving upper level trough that has brought precipitation to roughly the southern half of West Texas continues to shift slowly to the east and southeast, its axis along a line from northeastern Sonora across eastern New Mexico to the lower Missouri Valley. The cold start and a period of mid cloud will be more than offset by a rapid increase in thicknesses as the main upper trough accelerates quickly eastward.
Temps at 1030 am were in the low to mid 20s over central IL and upper 20s to near 30F in southeast IL se of I-70. A strong upper level trof digging into the Great Lakes region including IL will keep subfreezing temps around through Fri morning. Elongated upper trough extends from Lake Superior southwest to Kansas early this morning, ushering in much colder conditions over a large part of the region. Radar mosaics showing a large area of very light echoes dropping southward, associated with the trough itself, with surface reports upstream showing some visibilities as low as 3 miles.
358 PM CST Thu Dec 7 2017 Challenging forecast tonight with possibility of wet snow for many areas and freezing temperatures for northern half of the area. light rain is occurring with temperatures mainly in the lower to mid 40s. Sounding from UH and StormGeo showing mostly subfreezing conditions aloft with freezing level only 2500 feet. Surface wet bulbs also generally well above freezing attm. At the same time upper trough and jet streak with associated lift progged to migrate cross the area.
Mid and upper 20s now in the DVL basin and northern Red River valley with cooler temps continuing to the east where winds are still southwesterly and weaker. H850 temps should increase about 10 deg over eastern ND while remaining significantly cooler over the far east.
242 PM EST Thu Dec 7 2017 High pressure tonight and Friday.
A high amplitude upper level ridge will persist over the Pacific Northwest through Friday.
Models show some isentropic lift in the 285K-290K layer with this cloud deck behind the upper trough.
321 PM CST Thu Dec 7 2017 1031 mb high pressure over central KS and ridging into the mid MS and lower Ohio river valleys has clear skies over central IL at mid afternoon.
/issued 301 AM CST Thu Dec 7 2017/ High pressure to continue to surge south today with some of the coldest temperatures of the season expected overnight. With prolonged warm temperatures since the previous first freeze in late October, will go ahead and issue a freeze warning for tonight for the entire ArkLaTex as temperatures are forecast to fall into the lower 20s across the interstate 30 corridor and upper 20s elsewhere. Temperatures this afternoon to range from highs in the lower to mid 40s across southeast OK to around 50 elsewhere. 700 mb trough across the midwest will shift south today bringing gradual clearing from the northwest.
220 PM CST Thu Dec 7 2017 This afternoon, the upper air pattern reflects a longwave RIDGE over coastal western North America and a TROF over much of the middle and eastern portions of North America, with the TROF axis extending from the western Great Lakes southwestward to southern New Mexico. The TROF axis aloft will work its way thru our region tonight but uneventfully, with clear skies expected to persist. Combined with the presence of a weak RIDGE at the surface, should allow temps to plunge into the teens by early Friday morning, with some single digits possible in sheltered valley areas. Thanks to SW surface winds in the wake of the RIDGE axis, temps will recover closer to averages for early December, but still about 5 degrees below--or in the upper 30s and lower 40s.
1130 AM CST Thu Dec 7 2017 Trough east/ridge west pattern continues (and will for a long time). Subjective 00Z upper-air analysis indicates broad upper-level trough centered on the Great Lakes but spanning the Great Basin to New England. Upper-level ridge was centered along the Pacific coast, and upper-level jet was strongest in advance of the trough, from the mid-Atlantic toward New England.
At the surface, a cold front marked by a wind shift and dewpoint gradient now over E KY and Middle TN will push across our area this evening. NC and the higher elevations of the Smokies.
Temperatures this morning range from 33 in the northwest counties to 43 degrees near the Tennessee/Alabama state line, thanks mostly to a cold front currently draped across northwestern Middle Tennessee. We're expecting temperatures to rise into the low to mid 40s in our warmest spots, which will be in the eastern and southern edges of the CWA. It looks like we may get a degree or two warmer than forecast in a couple of southeast counties, but this depends on how quickly this front moves through. Some scattered lower clouds will move through the area today with a weak cold frontal passage.
243 PM EST Thu Dec 7 2017 A cold front is pushing across southeast Kentucky this afternoon with cooler and drier air working in from the northwest behind this front. The present frontal boundary will stall well to our southeast tonight with an area of low pressure tracking northward along this boundary tomorrow. With dewpoints running in the low to middle teens, combined with expected clearing, we should see temperatures tank Friday night. Lows in the valleys could easily reach the mid to upper teens with ridges holding in the lower 20s.
1116 AM CST Thu Dec 7 2017 A deep, positively tilted trough currently extends into the region this morning. The strong CAA associated with this trough will keep temperatures well below normal today. By this evening, the trough will transit to the east and mid and upper level ridging will replace it.
114 PM MST Thu Dec 7 2017 A very stagnant pattern will continue with a very large high pressure ridge along the west coast extending north well above the Arctic Circle producing cool dry northerly flow over western Wyoming through the weekend. As the ridge moves slowly east wind aloft will decrease with gradual warming.
Lows tonight will be several degrees warmer with warm advection and a downslope component in place. The strong winds combined with warmer temperatures and low humidities will create high grassland fire danger. Large blocking upper ridge will continue to bring prolonged dry and warm conditions to the region.
Surface temperatures will initially remain above freezing while the snow is falling limiting accumulations but heavier snowfall rates and other cooling effects will allow for accumulations across the southeast portions of our CWA before the precipitation tapers off Friday afternoon. The upper level trough will move into the western portions of our CWA late in the afternoon. Temperatures tonight will bottom out from the upper 20s north to the lower 30s southeast. Afternoon Highs will be much cooler than normal ranging from the lower 40s west to the upper 30s southeast.
303 PM EST Thu Dec 7 2017 Temperatures across the island chain are in the low to mid 80s, and dew points are generally in the mid 70s. As of 2pm, a cold front that will approach the Florida Keys Friday night was stalled across Central Florida, stretching from the Tampa area to the Space Coast. Winds onshore will shift to the south by sunrise and gradually increase to near 10 knots as a strong upper-level trough digs through the Central Gulf. Highs Friday will be nearly as warm as today, in the lower 80s and a few warmer spots that are able to get peaks of sunshine. Conditions will begin to deteriorate Friday night as the upper-level trough pushes a strong cold front toward the Florida Keys.
Despite the additional sunshine, it will still be quite chilly, with max temps only into the lower 30s for most areas. TES Relatively quiet (but cold) weather expected today as a positively tilted longwave trof digs southeast through the Midwest and southern Great Plains today. The ridge axis will shift southeast of the forecast area overnight tonight which will turn the wind back around to the southwest.
Much cooler temperatures with gusty winds today followed by freezing temperatures for much of the area tonight.
1158 AM CST Thu Dec 7 2017 Clouds are on their way out this morning as the trough slides southeast and ridging builds in. Low pressure will track from northwest MN to western or central WI Friday afternoon, to Lake Michigan by Friday night. The deep trough to the east and the anomalously large ridge to the west will maintain a northwest flow for the Upper Midwest.
High pressure center and ridge axis has shifted inland so winds will generally be lighter than yesterday over most of our area. Blocking pattern will remain fully entrenched over Wrn NOAM through the 7-Day period with the high center drifting into NV so winds will continue to be light and mostly from the north to east. Morning models came in a little warmer with the 850 mbs temps Fri-Mon and this will likely increase the strenghth of the inversion over our area. but high pressure will remain in control for the foreseeable future.
1110 AM EST Thu Dec 7 2017 High pressure will build south of the region today and remain to our south tonight into Friday.
Then, high pressure will lead to warming temperatures and lighter winds from Friday into next work week. No significant changes to the forecast this morning behind a dry cold front that moved through the area earlier today. Beginning Friday, strong high pressure will build across the western United States with a return of above normal temperatures by the weekend.
316 PM CST Thu Dec 7 2017 This afternoon light rain and drizzle continues across much of the area with temperatures from the lower 40s in the rain to to lower 50s outside the rainfall. As far as accumulations the best guess with the deterministic forecast is for possible accumulations of less than 1 inch where temperatures will be near freezing or snowfall rates will compensate for warmer temperatures. Another concern is temperatures going below freezing across northern portions of the area. Any water on area bridges may have a chance to freeze across east Texas and West central Louisiana despite precipitation coming to an end. Temperatures will warm to above freezing across all areas by late morning Friday and precipitation will be coming to an end as well.
355 PM EST Thu Dec 7 2017 A cold front is pushing across southeast Kentucky this afternoon with cooler and drier air working in from the northwest behind this front. The present frontal boundary will stall well to our southeast tonight with an area of low pressure tracking northward along this boundary tomorrow. With dewpoints running in the low to middle teens, combined with expected clearing, we should see temperatures tank Friday night. Lows in the valleys could easily reach the mid to upper teens with ridges holding in the lower 20s.
252 PM CST Thu Dec 7 2017 Clouds and light winds to keep temps up overnight across the area with lows expected to be in the teens, warmest in the west and south and cooler in the north and east. Ahead of the system westerly SFC winds will again allow a quick temp rise into the upper 20s and even lower 30s along the valley and to the west before the cold front pushes through and winds shift to the north. Flurries and light snow is expected along and or in the wake of the cold front with some strong gusts from the NW.
Surface analysis this morning places a weak cold front over portions of Middle/East Tennessee and North Mississippi. /issued 249 AM CST Thu Dec 7 2017/ High clouds are moving across a large portion of the Mid-South early this morning with temperatures ranging from the upper 20s to the lower 40s. A cold front was located from southern Illinois through northwest Arkansas and into northwest Texas. High pressure will build into the region tonight resulting in a cold night with lows Friday morning from the upper teens to the upper 20s.
Fog remains present this morning under the ridge and related inversion. A large upper level ridge remains on/near the PacNW coast through the short term. The ridge axis will drift slightly east Friday, strengthening the surface inversion already in place. We expect the lower Treasure Valley will be the first to see stratus/fog, and that it will expand from there.
The high is expected to shift south of the area late tonight and some spots may see enough southwest winds toward morning to keep temps from completely bottoming out. Warmer temperatures and dry weather of late will continue to raise fire weather issues when any sort of uptick in wind speeds noted.
very dry air will move into the state this Thu as a new cold front drops SE into the state starting this morning. a few deg warmer than expected this Thu.
A cold front is loacted across central KY/Middle TN, identified by a wind shift and dewpoint gradient, but it will have little impact on the weather as it moves through later today. Winds will shift from W-SW today to NW this evening with the passage of a cold front, but wind spees will predominantly remain below 10 kts.
High pressure will keep clear and dry weather in place the rest of this week and through the weekend. An upper level ridge remains parked over the West Coast, bringing plentiful sunshine and above normal afternoon highs region-wide. Forecast models continue to advertise much of the same for the foreseeable future as high pressure won't be going anywhere anytime soon. While the upper level ridge remains stationary over the West Coast, expect the dry conditions to prevail. SFO Bridge Approach. Strong high pressure will dominate the weather pattern through the coming days. Lighter, variable winds will prevail for areas protected by coastal ridges, such as offshore of the Santa Cruz Mountains, Big Sur, and the Sonoma coastline.
322 PM CST Thu Dec 7 2017 Water vapor imagery this afternoon was showing a well defined ridge situated over the west coast with a deep positive tilt trof extending from southeast Canada to the southern Plains. high pressure was in control over the western half of the CONUS. Models in good agreement that large scale flow will not be too progressive into and through this weekend with a mean ridge west/trof east with a series of vort maxes dropping into the upper/mid MS region.
1241 PM EST Thu Dec 7 2017 Snow showers and flurries will be possible today as an upper level disturbance and cold front traverse the region.
Trended toward the colder end of guidance based on the low dew points, light winds, and mostly clear skies (for most locations). Slightly warmer temperatures are expected across northwest Oklahoma, where clouds and winds may increase toward morning.
331 PM EST Thu Dec 7 2017 High pressure and drier air will build in tonight and Friday.
247 PM CST Thu Dec 7 2017 A very cold high pressure ridge will sink south into the southern Plains and lower OH Valley tonight, likely bringing the coldest temperatures with it since last March.
Main things will be the high clouds later in the period as well as breezy conditions this afternoon and tomorrow afternoon. All short range and medium range models continue to suggest the highly amplified upper air pattern will persist, featuring a strong upper level ridge of high pressure around the western third of the United States with a correspondingly deep upper level trof of low pressure covering most of the eastern states.
Temperatures this morning range from 33 in the northwest counties to 43 degrees near the Tennessee/Alabama state line, thanks mostly to a cold front currently draped across northwestern Middle Tennessee. We're expecting temperatures to rise into the low to mid 40s in our warmest spots, which will be in the eastern and southern edges of the CWA. It looks like we may get a degree or two warmer than forecast in a couple of southeast counties, but this depends on how quickly this front moves through. A weak cold front moved through CKV, BNA, and MQY this morning bringing winds out of the northwest.
Additionally, a passing cold front will leave some gusty north winds behind for most of this afternoon. North winds will increase through today as a reinforcing cold front moves into the area.
246 PM CST Thu Dec 7 2017 Current surface analysis places weak trough stretching through the northern plains into the central Rockies, while high remains over the southern plains. Upper level analysis places ridge over the west coast with trough stretching from the Great Lakes into the desert southwest.
Surface analysis this afternoon places a cold front over portions of East Tennessee back through Northern Alabama and Central Mississippi. Not much change expected in the overall synoptic pattern across North America for the next 7 days as upper level ridging will remain in place across the Western United States and an upper level trough over the Eastern United States.
159 PM PST Thu Dec 7 2017 High pressure will bring dry conditions with valley inversions, cold nights and light winds for the next 10 days. High pressure is anchored near the coast and the only real change is that it will move overhead for the weekend. Winds will be light with the light general flow from the east to northeast driven by the low level pressure gradient.
223 PM EST Thu Dec 7 2017 High pressure will remain to our south tonight and Friday then move east Friday night.
1154 AM CST Thu Dec 7 2017 A strong northerly upper level jet max will keep the low levels cold through the morning. By afternoon a weak ridge of high pressure will pass to the south and allow surface winds to back a bit more towards the west. This will aid in advecting warmer air in from the west, but an abundance of mid and high level cloud cover should limit any warming potential. Moisture in the lower levels as well as temperatures warming through the more favorable dendritic levels suggests that light snowfall and flurries are unlikely today. As this jet max drifts east the slightly warmer low level air will allow temperatures to climb towards normal on Friday.
Temps will likely drop back toward the freezing mark as the new batch of clouds slides overhead. Dominant feature for most of the upcoming week will be an eastern CONUS upper trof, which will maintain cold and somewhat unsettled conditions across the Ohio Valley. Several impulses will dive out of Canada and swing through the base of this trof, bringing periodic chances for light precip mainly in the form of snow.
Some patches of fog are possible around daybreak mainly over the lower Susquehanna Valley where winds/dewpoints should be lightest/highest. Dewpoints creeping into the low 60s will result in max heat index values in the low 90s over much of the Susquehanna Valley.
Presence of an upper-level ridge building into the Central Plains and Midwest noted by cirrus blow off from northern Minnesota MCS diving southward in a subtle clockwise fashion. The lower humidity and breezy conditions will help people cool off while taking breaks in the shade.
Although the airmass will remain dry with mostly clear skies, the proximity of the low pressure system to Arizona will produce below normal temperatures.
High pressure at the surface and aloft will dominate our weather through the end of the week. 500 mb heights will be building in across the southeast CONUS, allowing for mostly clear skies and warmer temperatures. Sunday will be a repeat performance, although readings will be slightly warmer still, with humidity levels a bit more on the rise as well.
Initial push of moisture northward from the Gulf begins tomorrow morning as a weakness in the upper level ridge pushes northward.
319 PM MDT Sat Jun 10 2017 Southwest flow aloft over the area will continue tonight and Sun, as an upper low moves slowly southward from the Pacific Northwest coast into northern CA. Also, with the very warm temps, rapid snowmelt will continue in the high country which will keep rivers and streams running high and fast. Recent longer term PV analysis, computer simulations and forecast model soundings indicate that generally dry, warm and gusty winds at times should be noted over the forecast district for the balance of the longer term as the dry southwesterly upper flow of Sunday night transitions to an upper ridge becoming centered near the 4-corners region by next Saturday.
The low pressure system responsible for the recent unsettled weather will continue to move farther away from the area for a decreasing threat of showers.
116 PM PDT Sat Jun 10 2017 Persistent onshore flow and a deepening trough over the West, will thicken the marine layer and bring periods of drizzle west of the mountains this weekend.
Overnight lows in the 70s as has been the case for the past several nights, though slightly warmer along the Treasure Coast as onshore flow becomes established south of the Cape. 0" through the day) as the axis of the subtropical ridge begins to establish itself to our north. Will carry the highest PoPs in the afternoon over inland areas (60%), tapering to around (40%) along the coast. Pattern changes little into the work week, with high pressure ridge axis remaining north of the area and deep moisture persisting across the region. Winds will remain out of the east- southeast, with speeds less than 15 knots, as high pressure ridge axis remains north of the area.
242 PM CDT Sat Jun 10 2017 A stationary front extended across the High Plains this afternoon. Compressional warming and strong southerly winds have caused temperatures to be in the mid 90s across the High Plains.
High pressure is expected to keep VFR conditions in place at Middle Tennessee terminals through the forecast period.
151 PM EDT Sat Jun 10 2017 Hydro Winds will increase today as low pressure deepens across southern Canada.
Cool low pressure aloft will linger near the Oregon coast today, then move inland near the California border tonight. A few showers will linger into Sunday, especially in the higher terrain, but the overall trend will be for drier weather.
A closed upper-level low pressure system is expected to begin swinging up into Montana by near the end of the short term period.