Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Can't rule out some patchy freezing fog, patchy light freezing drizzle or snow flurries through the morning hours, especially for KAMA. The next cold front is expected to push through tonight, with winds switching back to the northeast at 10 to 20 knots. Models are hinting at a slightly better setup for patchy freezing drizzle along/behind front tonight which should switch to snow flurries towards the end of the period. /Issued 501 AM CST Sat Dec 30 2017/ A strong cold front marking the leading edge of a Canadian and modified arctic airmass has moved south of the fcst area as of this writing with sharply colder temperatures expected today. Have retained patchy freezing fog area wide this morning along with isold snow flurries across the OK Panhandle and the northern Texas Panhandle, and patchy freezing drizzle across the southern Texas Panhandle.
945 AM EST Sat Dec 30 2017 Canadian high pressure across the region will be reinforced behind a dry cold front tonight. An approaching dry reinforcing cold front will move through the forecast area tonight. Temperature recovery will occur ahead of the cold front today. The temperature guidance was close tonight with lows mainly in the lower 30s. Some increase in moisture may occur Sunday and Sunday night with a weak inverted trough lingering in the wake of the cold front.
Heavy Lake effect snow is expected to develop tonight as a trof extends east/west across Lake Michigan.
The main focus for the short term will be the orphaned weak frontal boundary north of the island chain, which may be an instigator for cloud development across the Lower Keys and our western coastal zones later this afternoon, and a moderate wind surge across our coastal zones.
501 AM CST Sat Dec 30 2017 A strong cold front marking the leading edge of a Canadian and modified arctic airmass has moved south of the fcst area as of this writing with sharply colder temperatures expected today. Have retained patchy freezing fog area wide this morning along with isold snow flurries across the OK Panhandle and the northern Texas Panhandle, and patchy freezing drizzle across the southern Texas Panhandle.
East Central Florida Forecast Discussion 915 AM EST Sat Dec 30 2017 Early vis satellite imagery shows low stratus and areas of sfc fog are steadily eroding from west to east as dryer air moves in behind a slowly departing Atlc low pressure area. Weakening high pressure over the southeast will shift closer to the area.
The mid level flow continues to be dominated by northwest flow aloft between the west coast ridge and a broad trough generally stationed over the Hudson Bay. This pattern has kept a steady flow of surface ridging and dry air, which has essentially kept the area precipitation free, with few exceptions for the last several weeks. This ridge never really becomes centered over the Central Plains or the Lower Missouri River Valley, so there will continue to be cold air advection and at least some wind through the weekend.
414 AM MST Sat Dec 30 2017 Upper level analysis has broad trof across the eastern CONUS with weak ridge over the Great Basin area. Snow will taper off and end tonight as arctic high pressure pushes into the Northern Plains.
Forecast for the remainder of today generally appears to be on track, with low chances for some snow showers in some of the higher terrain and plenty of clouds. Chattanooga Airport, TN 44 22 34 17 / 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 41 20 30 13 / 10 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 41 18 29 13 / 10 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 38 15 26 9 / 10 10 10 0.
644 AM EST Sat Dec 30 2017 Canadian high pressure across the region will be reinforced behind a dry cold front tonight. An approaching dry reinforcing cold front will move through the forecast area tonight. Temperature recovery will occur ahead of the cold front today. The temperature guidance was close tonight with lows mainly in the lower 30s. Some increase in moisture may occur Sunday and Sunday night with a weak inverted trough lingering in the wake of the cold front.
554 AM CST Sat Dec 30 2017 Visbys will be quick to improve in the next hour or so as a cold front moves through the region bringing slightly stronger north- northeasterly winds. Conditions will likely return to VFR this afternoon at all TAF sites but will again come down tonight ahead of a stronger cold front that will move through around 12Z Sunday morning.
Meanwhile, central mountains may pick up some isolated show showers across the higher peaks, but snowfall amounts will remain light.
With temperatures falling to freezing behind the front, may see a short lived episode of freezing drizzle and/or freezing fog across the central and northern Big Country. Drier air looks like it will move into the area for the afternoon, and although temperatures will continue to fall, looks like the freezing precip will come to an end briefly. Lift is fairly weak, but doesn't take much freezing drizzle to cause problems with temperatures falling below the 30 degree mark. (Sunday through Saturday) Another strong cold front will move through on Sunday morning bringing a reinforcing shot of cold air into the region. Primary concerns are going to be the slight chance for freezing drizzle on Sunday. Some slick spots may develop on bridges and overpasses as high temperatures are expected to stay below freezing in those areas.
925 AM EST Sat Dec 30 2017 A frosty morning was observed across southeast Georgia this morning, and there was also dense fog and even some freezing fog observed across interior areas. Black ice is possible on bridges through the late morning in interior southeast Georgia.
206 AM EDT Thu Jul 6 2017 High pressure will continue moving off the New England coast tonight into Thursday. A wave of low pressure with potentially heavy rain tracks across the region Thursday night into Friday morning.
452 AM EDT Thu Jul 6 2017 An upper-level composite analysis this morning shows a deep layer mean ridge from the western North Atlantic to northern Florida. Currently, air temperatures in most Keys island communities are in the lower to mid 80s, with dewpoint temperatures in the mid to upper 70s.
This is indicative of the monsoonal moisture boundary's gradual shift northward in response to strengthening high pressure near the Four Corners region of the Desert Southwest. Meanwhile the strengthening ridge of high pressure will also further enhance our heat wave with high and low temperatures ticking up a few degrees each day.
318 AM CDT Thu Jul 6 2017 Upper midwest in mild and humid conditions with vigorous convection in ND/MN moving southeast ahead of next developing cold front.
325 AM EDT Thu Jul 6 2017 High pressure will slowly move off the east coast through Thursday. As a cold front approaches our area Friday afternoon and evening, showers and thunderstorms will become more likely. The mid-lvl trough will just start to approach western NY by 00Z Sat and the sfc cold front is expected to sweep across the region after 06Z. Showers and thunderstorms are likely ahead and along the cold front as the dynamics aloft are conducive for convective development.
The Mississippi and Ohio Valley upper trough continues slowly east to a position centered on the Appalachian rise by 12z Friday.
331 AM CDT Thu Jul 6 2017 A mid and upper level trough axis will swing southeast across the Mid-Mississippi Valley today. As this happens, model cross- sections indicate increasing convergence in the lower portions of the atmosphere starting early this morning.
Dry and warm elsewhere with highs into the low to mid 80s. Chances for showers and thunderstorms increase later tonight into Friday as a cold front tracks through the area.
325 AM EDT Thu Jul 6 2017 TODAY AND TONIGHT: East to southeasterly wind flow continues across the region as high pressure over Atlantic dominates weather pattern. A mid level trough will also be moving into the southeast US. The trough combined with an increase in moisture will increase rain chances this weekend.
Cooler temperatures this weekend as moisture starts to increase thanks to thunderstorms across Sonora sending moist outflows north across the area.
Upper level trough across the Mid Mississippi Valley has progressed only slightly eastward today, as an upper level ridge axis remains oriented east to west along the northern Gulf coast. This pattern has been in place for several days now, and like previous days, we see scattered to numerous showers and storms across north Alabama, closer to the trough and deeper moisture. Activity will diminish in coverage this evening, but with the trough inching closer tonight, isolated to scattered coverage could be possible across the north overnight.
/Issued 400 PM CDT Wed Jul 5 2017/ Latest 20z water vapor imagery shows high pressure expanding over the CO/UT/WY intersection and has shown indications of shifting eastward in time. However, residual outflow boundaries and a weak mid-level jet rounding the high pressure center may be enough to spark an isolated thunderstorm or two this afternoon around peak heating. Models are in fairly decent agreement that the upper ridge will shift back to the west over the weekend leading to at least a brief return in northwest winds aloft.
An upper level high will remain centered over the Four Corners through Friday.
More confident in tstorms by late afternoon and early evening over the far nrn CWA as the thermal ridge shifts swd followed by the cold front. A small tornado threat will exist given the low level shear and SRH but CIN will be building during the evening when the storms are expected thus keeping the threat small. Very warm temps are expected today given the wly flow and thermal ridge to advect into the region. Temps will range from the upper 80s to lower 90s with heat index values in the lower to middle 90s.
Early morning surface analysis had a 1020mb ridge across our southern zones while a weak 1015mb low was noted over the mid Mississippi River Valley. Ridging surface and aloft wl try to hang tough over our southern zones today limiting convection there. Severe storms are not anticipated but a strong storm or two with gusty winds and small hail will be hard to rule out, especially across the Highway 82 corridor this afternoon. Afternoon highs normally run in the lower 90s. Normal morning lows run in the lower 70s.
315 AM CDT Thu Jul 6 2017 A large upper level ridge extends across the entire western half of the US with our forecast area under northwesterly flow. Today is still looking hot and humid ahead of an approaching cold front. This should send heat indices into the lower 100s this afternoon. The above mentioned cold front will slowly drift south through the CWA throughout the day, landing south of the forecast area by 06z tonight.
304 AM CDT Thu Jul 6 2017 The upper level ridge has been making its eastward expansion overnight, and IR satellite shows this nicely with clockwise flow centered over the Four Corners.
357 AM CDT Thu Jul 6 2017 An area of low pressure in central ND will progress e-se through the morning hours.
242 AM CDT Thu Jul 6 2017 Surface map this morning has a cold front moving southeast through northern MN into the Dakotas. Across our area, skies were partly cloudy with temperatures holding in the 60s to the lower 70s. Otherwise, expecting that area of storms to push into northeast WI as the cold front drops into the area later this afternoon into this evening. Look for the the front/storms to push southeast of the area by late evening with drier/cooler air filtering in overnight with temperatures bottoming out in the upper 50s to middle 60s. For Friday, a secondary cold front will drop into the area during the afternoon for a chance of showers/isolated storms.
1109 PM MDT Wed Jul 5 2017 Storms fired along the peaks and ridges as expected late this morning into early afternoon with storms collapsing as they drift off the higher terrain. This would indicate the strong ridge of high pressure is directly overhead, limiting storms from drifting much into the valleys. Hot and dry conditions remain in place with H7 temps of 20C keeping triple digit heat in the lower valleys of southeast Utah and the Grand Valley. Somewhat of a blocking pattern is in place with a trough of low pressure over the northern Great Lakes and Ontario-Quebec region and a Bermuda High just off the southeast coast. This will keep the ridge fully anchored west of the Four Corners through this weekend.
405 AM MDT Thu Jul 6 2017 Main story today will be hotter temperatures as the upper high remains parked over the region. Temperatures across the southeast plains will climb to around 100 degrees along the lower Arkansas River valley. Afternoon heating will act on residual moisture within the ridge to produce another round of isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon. Subtle disturbances within the upper ridge may also aid in their development. Models are in fairly good agreement with convection pushing eastward into the northeast CO plains this evening as a weak wave makes its way around the northern periphery of the upper high. High pressure will dominate the region with showers and thunderstorms expected across the mountains.
The heat will return today, and especially tomorrow, as skies clear and eastern edge of upper level ridge builds over the region.
A cold front late Friday will bring cooler and drier air for the weekend. Further development this afternoon north of the front, in the vicinity of the inverted trough, will be highly dependent upon the amount of sunshine today and in turn surface destabilization. There will be plenty of moisture to work with as PWATs will approach 2 inches along and south of the stalled boundary and possibly up into the inverted trough. The surface wave over Ohio will be driven southward, then eastward tonight as the upper level trough swings through. By Friday morning, the upper level trough will move into Central Pennsylvania, in turn pushing the surface wave toward Eastern Maryland. The lull will be short lived as a cold front will move toward the area late Friday, crossing Friday night.
1112 PM MDT Wed Jul 5 2017 Water vapor satellite imagery showing moisture rotating clockwise around the upper high situated over eastern Utah. Storms are having difficulty making much progress as they move off the higher terrain.
432 AM EDT Thu Jul 6 2017 Low pressure developing over the Ohio Valley will track south of Pennsylvania late today and tonight.
219 AM EDT Thu Jul 6 2017 High pressure moves offshore today and produces a southerly flow of air, which will introduce more humid air into northern New England this afternoon through tonight.
High pressure continues to slowly push east away from Michigan early this morning as low pressure develops upstream over the Northern Plains. Convection will diminish from NW to SE late tonight in the wake of the cold front. Expect another very warm day across the Northwoods thanks to ongoing WAA ahead of the cold front despite increasing clouds and increasing chances of precip. Cooler with fairly quiet weather.
330 AM CDT Thu Jul 6 2017 The upper level setup over northeast Kansas was gradually transitioning into a northwesterly flow pattern as a strong ridge builds over the western CONUS and the upper low that had lingered over the area for the last few days is finally departing. At the surface, a broad area of high pressure was analyzed over eastern Kansas and resulting in localized fog in river valleys east of Manhattan.
553 AM CDT Thu Jul 6 2017 Upper trough continues to push slowly eastward through the region early this morning. High temperatures will range from the lower 80s across the far southeast around Robinson and Lawrenceville where clouds will persist until late afternoon. to the lower 90s from Peoria northwestward where sunshine will be much more prevalent. A cold front dropping through the Upper Midwest will trigger scattered strong to severe thunderstorms across Minnesota and Wisconsin late this afternoon and evening. The cold front will progress southward through central Illinois on Friday, with thunderstorms likely re-developing ahead of the boundary across the far E/SE CWA during the afternoon. With dewpoints pooling in the lower 70s along the front, corresponding CAPE values will exceed 3000J/kg. to the lower 90s south of I-70.
321 AM CDT Thu Jul 6 2017 Upper trough continues to push slowly eastward through the region early this morning. High temperatures will range from the lower 80s across the far southeast around Robinson and Lawrenceville where clouds will persist until late afternoon. to the lower 90s from Peoria northwestward where sunshine will be much more prevalent. A cold front dropping through the Upper Midwest will trigger scattered strong to severe thunderstorms across Minnesota and Wisconsin late this afternoon and evening. The cold front will progress southward through central Illinois on Friday, with thunderstorms likely re-developing ahead of the boundary across the far E/SE CWA during the afternoon. With dewpoints pooling in the lower 70s along the front, corresponding CAPE values will exceed 3000J/kg. to the lower 90s south of I-70.
1025 PM PDT Wed Jul 5 2017 Hot high pressure will build over the region through Friday, bringing middle 90s to 100 degree temperatures.
131 AM EDT Thu Jul 6 2017 High pressure will slowly move off the east coast through Thursday. As a cold front approaches our area Friday afternoon and evening, showers and thunderstorms will become more likely. Southwest flow continues Thursday night ahead of the approaching cold front. Cold front arrives Friday night.
433 AM EDT Thu Jul 6 2017 An upper level trough of low pressure over the Mid-Mississippi Valley will continue to eject upper level disturbances across the forecast area through Friday with an opportunity for showers and thunderstorms.
659 AM EDT Thu Jul 6 2017 Persistent surface ridging will hold on today, limiting the amount of boundary layer moisture return. Approaching midlevel trough and upstream convective activity will prove to be adequate in offering plenty of cirrus today. Series of upper level waves/disturbances coming down from Canada leading to lowering heights and longwave trough setting up East of the Mississippi over the Weekend. Strung out (SW-NE aligned) moisture over Wisconsin this morning to seep into southeast Michigan during the day, but the upper level disturbance coming out of North Dakota expected to track through/near the Straights, calling into question how much activity will extend south into southeast Michigan (see 6z RAP13) as the cold front begins to accelerate off to the southeast Tonight.
High pressure will remain stationary centered over or just west of the 4-corners area of the country. A low pressure system will be meandering off the canadian coastline but through Friday will provide little energy to influence the position of the high pressure area.
Hot and dry conditions expected to continue as upper ridge builds back into western Montana through the end of the week. Yesterdays weak front has settled over central Montana and as Canadian high pressure slides into the northern plains, winds are going around to the east and northeast this morning. This high pressure is also bringing a little cooler air to knock temperatures down a few degrees along with higher humidity. Synoptic Setup: Friday night begins with hot high pressure over the western half of the CONUS and a ridge rising up from it through central Montana and into Alberta and the Northwest Territories. A large closed low sets over the Gulf of Alaska with its sphere of influence spreading into western Washington State and the main bulk of British Columbia.
354 AM EDT Thu Jul 6 2017 The latest surface map features broad low pressure across Missouri, with a weak surface boundary branched out into the Ohio Valley. Aloft, a gradually dampening upper level low is stacked in Missouri, with a short wave trough lifting through north central Kentucky. The latest model guidance still supports numerous to widespread showers and thunderstorms culminating across eastern Kentucky this afternoon into this evening, as the midwest upper low and associated trough axis draw closer. Most of the day looks to remain dry, before a more defined cold front approaches from the northwest late. A cold front will be dropping southward at the start of the period, bringing some showers and perhaps an isolated thunderstorm to the area Friday evening.
303 AM CDT Thu Jul 6 2017 The center of the upper level high will build across Colorado today into Friday. By Friday night, the upper level high is expected to be back across the Great Basin.
Moist easterly flow funneling into the Mid Atlantic region early this morning in between high pressure east of New Eng and quasi-stationary front draped south of Pa. All near term models place Pa on the north side of the low with southeast flow and overcast skies limiting the instability and potential of excessive rainfall from thunderstorms. Focus will then shift toward a cold front approaching from the Grt Lks late in the day. Partly sunny skies and GEFS mean 8h temps near 16C should translate to max temps mostly in the low to mid 80s.
317 AM EDT Thu Jul 6 2017 Low progression open trough to the NW is progged to get some assistance from some longwave energy entering into the midwest today as it comes more into phase to shift the axis farther SE tonight into Friday. Temps today for most locations in the upper 80s north to mid 90s SE coupled with uncomfortable dewpoints in the low 70s will result in afternoon heat indices of upper 90s to low 100s. Slightly cooler temps expected Friday with frontal system and associated cloud coverage influence.
547 AM CDT Thu Jul 6 2017 Surface map this morning has a cold front moving southeast through northern MN into the Dakotas. Across our area, skies were partly cloudy with temperatures holding in the 60s to the lower 70s. Otherwise, expecting that area of storms to push into northeast WI as the cold front drops into the area later this afternoon into this evening. Look for the the front/storms to push southeast of the area by late evening with drier/cooler air filtering in overnight with temperatures bottoming out in the upper 50s to middle 60s. For Friday, a secondary cold front will drop into the area during the afternoon for a chance of showers/isolated storms.
Satellite imagery shows pockets of dry air in and around the forecast area with mid level ridging across northern FL into the wern ATLC. Weak low level trough over the FL big bend and west coast sea breeze will help initiate convection around the 16z-18z time frame. A upper level trough will dig southward through the Great Lakes with a vertically stacked ridge across the southeastern states. The ridge along with warmer temperatures aloft and subsidence will tend to suppress convection with the Gulf of Mexico sea breeze front being dominant on Friday afternoon and evening. Friday night the upper level trough drives a frontal boundary across central Georgia with some convection continuing into the early morning hours near the Altamaha River.
The higher dew point air will shift east out of the area, relegating the 60's dew points to the extreme southeastern counties by late Thursday afternoon, with dewpoints in the 40s across the western counties. This in turn will allow for quicker rising temperatures curves during the day and overall warmer highs probably in the mid 90s. By Friday evening the NAM/WRF again develops high plains convection driven across northwest KS and tying it to a developing warm front straddling KS nw to southeast by the early the next day. Beyond this, the Superblend maintains mainly a dry forecast going forward, with high temperatures around 5+ degrees warmer than normal.
1121 PM MDT Wed Jul 5 2017 An upper level ridge will remain centered over eastern UT and western CO tonight through Thursday. Similar weather is expected on Thursday, with afternoon showers and thunderstorms over the higher terrain areas. Temps on Thu are expected to be a little warmer than today, with highs acrs the southeast plains in the 90s, with some lower 100's along the lower Arkansas River valley. Not many adjustments required from earlier meteorological reasoning as upper ridging maneuvers over/near the 4-Corners region during the balance of the longer term.