Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Given the impact of the higher snow amounts and still some gusty winds will likely retain the WSW from Peoria eastward until the 10 pm expiration time. A short break is in store for the area in the late afternoon before a weaker round of precip drops southward in behind the low as it shifts to the east. Moving into the extended, a quiet end to the weekend as sunny skies return, albeit with a cooler airmass and temps only climbing into the upper 30s/lower 40s. The weak ridging aloft shifts to the east and the flow into the region becomes more southwesterly aloft.
1141 PM CDT Sat Mar 24 2018 The primary forecast challenge through Sunday deals stratus coverage and (freezing?) drizzle chances due to persistent upslope flow and good surface moisture. Isentropic analysis and forecast soundings show abundant dry air in the mid and upper levels, indicating all the moisture to be trapped in the lowest 100mb or so. Temperatures will be critical as forecast lows hover right around the freezing mark. Higher confidence of freezing drizzle exists over north central Neb where lows may dip into the 20s. Normals for the season around 30 for lows and low 50s for the highs.
Tonight-Sunday: Main upper trough moves from Saskatchewan across Manitoba Sunday, with increasing southerly flow keeping decent moisture advection in place over our CWA. Weak high pressure to follow for the daylight hours on Tue. On Wed with projected high temps above freezing some periods of rain or mixed may occur.
Latest surface observations and radar imagery show cold front quickly moving southward into northern zones this evening, and currently extends from just south of Clarksville to near Gallatin to north of Gainesboro. Some stronger thunderstorms are ongoing across West Tennessee near a weak low pressure area, but CAPE decrease rapidly near the Tennessee River so expecting these storms to keep weakening as they move into the cwa. Have raised pops areawide for the evening hours based on radar, and have adjusted temperatures quite a bit for the evening hours in line with the latest HRRR timing of the cold front. Precipitation will quickly end for most of the area after midnight as the low shifts eastward. A cold front has drifted south this evening bringing winds out of the north and northeast at all sites.
Cooler with more cloud cover and a slightly cooler airmass.
Even as warmer air moves in, still having some reports of snow along the higher elevations of Wise VA. Because of low freezing levels and the elevated nature of the convection, some of the stronger storms may have small hail, but do not anticipate much of a wind threat. Chattanooga Airport, TN 53 60 44 55 / 80 20 10 20 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 44 53 42 59 / 90 20 10 10 Oak Ridge, TN 43 54 41 61 / 90 20 10 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 37 50 34 54 / 100 20 10 0.
The low clouds should slowly lift through the remainder of the period, but conditions will likely remain in the MVFR or low- end of VFR.
Retreating high pressure ridge along with a weak low pressure center moving over the southeast states and offshore will increase southwest-west winds, especially across the north. Then on Sunday, the southwest winds will delay/hold off the east coast sea breeze, which will allow max temps to be above normal in the lower-mid 80s. Retreating high pressure ridge and frontal trough over the southeast states was already allowing the pressure gradient to tighten some. The frontal trough will sag towards north Florida, which will produce a west/southwest flow across the local waters, generally 10 to 15 knots, except 15-20 knots over the northern offshore waters early.
1150 PM CDT Sat Mar 24 2018 For the 25/06z TAFs, at the start of the period, a cold front was located roughly from the DFW Metroplex east-northeast along the Interstate 30 corridor into Central Arkansas.
1035 PM EDT Sat Mar 24 2018 A back door front will move through the region late tonight bringing rain, with wedge conditions and associated low cloudiness and cooler temps developing over our forecast area and lingering through Sunday.
Upper level trough will prevail across California this weekend with onshore flow near the surface. For most of the region, this upper level trough will usher in cooler and windy conditions this weekend, with winds potentially approaching advisory levels in the Antelope Valley on Sunday. Behind this upper level trough, gusty northwest to north winds will develop across typical north facing passes and canyons including the Interstate 5 corridor and Santa Ynez mountains/SBA south coast.
Our best rain chances remain in place for the Tues/Thurs timeframe with the approach of the very well defined upper trof/low from the west and its associated cold front. However, that being said, the progged track of this upper low is indicating that some strong dynamics could be in play when all is done.
Southwest flow aloft will prevail tonight and Sunday ahead of an upper level trough over the Pacific Northwest and Great Basin.
Latest surface observations and radar imagery show cold front quickly moving southward into northern zones this evening, and currently extends from just south of Clarksville to near Gallatin to north of Gainesboro. Some stronger thunderstorms are ongoing across West Tennessee near a weak low pressure area, but CAPE decrease rapidly near the Tennessee River so expecting these storms to keep weakening as they move into the cwa. Have raised pops areawide for the evening hours based on radar, and have adjusted temperatures quite a bit for the evening hours in line with the latest HRRR timing of the cold front. Precipitation will quickly end for most of the area after midnight as the low shifts eastward. Winds will shift out of the north as the low passes this evening and remain there throughout the remainder of the forecast period.
/Issued 340 PM CDT Sat Mar 24 2018/ Surface cold front has pushed through the area with breezy northwest winds behind it. Temperatures on Sunday morning will be quite a bit cooler than this morning, with lows in the 30s and 40s for much of the area.
/ISSUED 630 PM CDT Sat Mar 24 2018/ Weak low pressure was located over NE Arkansas with a cold front trailing to the southwest of the low. High pressure was located over the central Gulf and the pressure gradient remained fairly tight. Our best rain chances remain in place for the Tues/Thurs timeframe with the approach of the very well defined upper trof/low from the west and its associated cold front. However, that being said, the progged track of this upper low is indicating that some strong dynamics could be in play when all is done.
935 PM PDT Sat Mar 24 2018 Sunday will be another cool day as a low pressure trough sweeps across Southern California. This trough may produce a few light showers, but the chances are low.
530 PM MDT Sat Mar 24 2018 Water vapor shows large scale trof over the western CONUS with SW flow aloft into the Northern Plains. At the surface, broad SE flow covers the region with strong high north of the Great Lakes and lee trof east of the Rockies. Thermal profiles towards central SD suggest more of a freezing rain/drizzle threat with some light icing possible late tonight and early Sunday before short wave ejects further east.
Front expected to stall across north Texas before lifting back as a warm front tomorrow while southwesterly flow aloft begins to take shape.
A weak cold front is pushing through the area on Sunday as cold air damming sets up in the Carolinas.
Tonight and Sunday The latest RAP analysis and satellite/radar imagery show high pressure stretching from James Bay into the northern Great Lakes early this afternoon. As high pressure continues to be the main influence of the weather across the region, temps and low humidities remain the main forecast concerns. Warmer highs ranging from the mid 30s near Lake Michigan to the middle 40s over central WI.
An upper level Pacific low and associated trof moves onto the West Coast and east into the Great Basin on Sunday.
1119 PM CDT Sat Mar 24 2018 Issued 355 PM CDT Sat Mar 24 2018 Main forecast concern is timing of next short wave trough approaching the area later Sunday afternoon. Water vapor imagery showing cirrostratus associated with outgoing trough is finally thinning over the western CWA. We kept the low end chance PoP for some light rain moving into the far west after 21z Sunday.
1154 PM CDT Sat Mar 24 2018 A cold front is moving through the eastern Ozarks and south central Missouri this afternoon. Temperatures will be much cooler tonight into the lower and middle 30s with afternoon highs Sunday in the middle to upper 50s. A large and deep upper level trough will slowly move across the western U.
807 PM EDT Sat Mar 24 2018 A low pressure system will continue to move southeast away from our region tonight. High pressure will then extend into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley Sunday into Sunday night. Although warmer temperatures will return for the upcoming week, moisture will increase as well. This will allow high pressure to build in. Between the wind and temperatures any refreezing of moisture will be limited. High pressure centered over northeast Canada will extend southeast into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley on Sunday. Highs will range from the lower 40s north to the mid/upper 40s south. For Sunday night, as the low level flow around the high veers to the east/southeast, low level moisture in the form of clouds will increase from the south/southeast to the north/northwest overnight.
P-type could come down to surface temps, which should hover within a few degrees of freezing. Precipitation type will be a mix of freezing rain and sleet, along with an outside possibility for rain in the southern part of the CWA and snow along the ND/SD border.
916 PM EDT Sat Mar 24 2018 The southwest flow in the boundary layer will increase overnight ahead of an approaching cold front. The actual backdoor cold front will quickly push down the coast during the afternoon. Temperatures across inland northeast Florida are still on track to top out around 80 degrees prior to the arrival of the cold front. It will be very close to LLWS but the low level flow will be unidirectional out of the southwest through 2000 feet and there will also be some slight mixing near the surface which should preclude the need for LLWS. There will be a transition to MVFR from north to south during the day tomorrow as a backdoor cold front slowly works southward across the area during the afternoon.
Amounts will up to 2" in the higher elevations of the southern highlands, otherwise little to no accumulation elsewhere. Otherwise, high flows persist across some locations but should slow down/decrease some as cooler temperatures are forecast for the next 24-48 hours.
SHORT TERM (Now through Monday): West to northwest flow aloft will continue over region through the period as deep south Texas remains on the northern periphery of 500 mb high pressure. The pressure gradient will strengthen today as high pressure across the Gulf of Mexico interacts with lower pressure across the Southern Plains. Above normal temperatures are expected with high temperatures today and Monday ranging from the lower 80s at the beaches to the low to mid 90s inland, low temperatures tonight will be around 70.
331 AM CDT Sun Apr 1 2018 (Today and Tonight) A cold front, currently moving south across the Big Country, will be south of I-20 around 8 AM. A fairly large temperature range is expected today, with much cooler temperatures behind the front and still warm out ahead of it. Going with highs this afternoon generally in the 60s across the Big Country (upper 50s/near 60 in northern Haskell and Throckmorton Counties), and in the lower to mid 80s for approximately the southern half of our area. Overnight lows are expected to range from the lower/mid 40s across the Big Country, to around 60 along the I-10 corridor.
The High Resolution Rapid Refresh says areas right up against the mountains would be one of the favored locations. This would include much of the I25 corridor from Springs south to Trinidad, though there is some indication that stronger westerlies near Trinidad may hold the low clouds off. As is often the case, the low clouds should thin and retreat during the late morning and afternoon hours, with any spotty showers over the far eastern plains coming to an end. For the mountains and high valleys west of the plains, the incoming cold front will have little impact. The higher terrain of the central mountains may see a few snow showers as the upper disturbance moves by late tonight and early Sunday but everyone else should remain dry.
405 AM CDT Sun Apr 1 2018 Cold front has dropped to the southeast of the forecast area this morning. Northwest winds dominate the region with cooler air filtering in behind the front. High pressure is building into the Midwest from the Northern Plains.
142 AM EDT Sun Apr 1 2018 Aviation A deepening area of low pressure will pull away from lower Michigan tonight. An area of high pressure will move in on Sunday and stay with the region into Monday.
As for temperatures, current readings have fallen into the middle 20s north to the lower 30s south. Increasing warm air advection may allow for some light showers or drizzle to develop by Monday morning, and will need to monitor surface temperatures to watch for a brief window of light freezing drizzle before readings warm well above freezing during the day Monday.
417 AM CDT Sun Apr 1 2018 Looking at a complicated temperature forecast this Easter as each weather model offers a different solution as to where a cold front will settle. Low clouds and much cooler temperatures will fill in tonight behind the front which will likely only make it to the Pecos River. A weak upper level trough will move east across northern Mexico early this week.
Easterly winds will bring in just enough moisture tonight, combined with cool overnight lows in the low 50s, to make fog a possibility from Tallahassee east.
A frontal system will bring rain at times and cooler temperatures today with a few lingering showers into Monday.
Yesterday's cold front will begin to stall across southwestern MT. then dry air and brief ridging should diminish much of the shower activity. The brief ridge breaks down on Sunday bringing moist westerly flow. This weak warm frontal pattern could bring slightly warmer (still below normal) temperatures and scattered snow showers. The attention then shifts to a large Pacific trough for Sunday night through Monday. Cooler below normal temperatures will also continue with this system for Monday.
332 AM EDT Sun Apr 1 2018 High pressure will move off the coast today.
Cold high pressure from Alberta will move quickly south and east this evening, arriving in Southeast Nebraska by Sunday morning, and delivering very cold temperatures to Western Kansas overnight and into Easter Sunday. While the majority of meaningful snowfall/precipitation chances overnight/into Sunday morning will occur in those areas, there is enough isentropic lift and low level moistening over western Kansas that soundings show the chance for light freezing drizzle (just drizzle toward the Oklahoma border) Sunday morning into early Sunday afternoon. Sunday night, the cool high pressure begins to move east into the Great Lakes region, and warm air advection begins as lee cyclogenesis develops in Eastern Colorado. Monday, highs will reach into the lower 80s toward the Colorado/Kansas/Oklahoma border, with 60s toward central Kansas.
However I do think we will see some late day sun along with winds gradually turning to the southeast this should get most of the area into the low to mid 40s. Sunday night, the cool high pressure begins to move east into the Great Lakes region, and warm air advection begins as lee cyclogenesis develops in Eastern Colorado. Monday, highs will reach into the lower 80s toward the Colorado/Kansas/Oklahoma border, with 60s toward central Kansas.
Weakening frontal trough will dissipate across the area today, then weak high pressure behind it will merge with Atlantic ridge tonight and we'll end up with a ridge axis across the central peninsula. This will maintain low-mid 60s surface dew points but considerable mid level drying will occur behind the axis of a weak trough aloft that was currently pushing eastward over the Atlantic waters. Continued above normal low temps in the lower-mid 60s. Models continue to indicate the base of a transient and de- amplifying longwave trough passing overhead midweek.
A cold front sags south into Central Texas late tonight into early Monday morning. The showers tend to decrease in the afternoon as the mid level impulse moves off to the east and airmass mixing weakens the low level jet. However, the proximity of the front and daytime heating may allow for upward motion to break the cap for isolated thunderstorms to develop over the northeastern Hill Country across the Austin area to the Highway 77 corridor. The main impact of the front is to bring slightly cooler temperatures to Williamson county and adjacent parts of nearby counties.
355 AM CDT Sun Apr 1 2018 Northwest flow is in place in the mid-upper levels, with ridging over the Canadian rockies. NW flow on western extent of Hudson Bay upper low will continue to keep colder temps in place through these periods, and below normal highs/lows are anticipated once again. Highs for the entire week will remain below freezing. The next chance for snow will develop on Mon afternoon and last through Tue morning as a lee cyclone moves into the Northern Plains. But high pressure and drier air over this region may well win out again, making the GFS/ECMWF more prudent at this time. Tue would likely be coldest in the wake of departing system with fresh high pressure dropping south.
West winds mostly 10 kts or less today become variable overnight as high pressure settles in. High pressure ridges into the state tonight. Medium The ridging clears the area allowing for a return flow to set up with potential for some isentropic lift induced precip during the afternoon.
Temperatures are in the low 70s, and dew points are in the mid to upper 60s. Slight upper level troughing in connection with the dissipating surface front near the Florida Keys will be enjoyed through Monday, allowing an air mass with dew points in the upper 60s to persist.
A weak disturbance looks to drop down into western Colorado again during the day on Monday, bringing scattered showers to the higher terrain.
On the surface a cold front was slowly approaching from the northwest. The weak cold front will stall across the northwest delta by late today into tonight as upper support weakens.
655 AM EDT Sun Apr 1 2018 High pressure will move off the coast today.
This area of low pressure will eject northeast into the Great Lakes region, with ample support from the various deterministic and ensemble guidance data.
302 AM CDT Sun Apr 1 2018 Today will be mostly sunny, but quite chilly as high pressure drifts across the region.
As a broad upper ridge over Mexico moves through south Texas today, a short wave trough will move across the central plains into the Ohio Valley. Cold front along the Red River early this morning will move north Texas today and stall over central Texas early Monday morning. Front moves back to the north as a warm front on Monday with low pressure deepening over the southern high plains.
247 AM CDT Sun Apr 1 2018 The midweek cold front now looks to arrive a bit earlier than advertised in previous forecasts.
315 AM PDT Sun Apr 1 2018 A low pressure trough off the coast will spread high clouds over the southwest states through Monday.
The initial cold frontal passage last evening has left the forecast area with east to northeast winds. The reinforcing cooler air is currently working into the northeastern zones and will continue to do so through the morning. Models currently favor high cloud more than low cloud, which would favor slightly warmer temperatures, especially across northeastern counties. What is more certain is a sharp warm-up for Monday as south to southwest winds return in earnest ahead of a low amplitude positively tilted upper short wave trough in the southern branch of the jet stream.
High pressure will continue to settle south of the area, gradually turning winds around to south and southwest by late day. The earlier snow and persistent clouds with the easterly component will restrain temps in the mid 30s in southwest MN, while south central SD locations could creep into the warm wedge near frontal boundary extending from developing low pressure in eastern CO/western KS, and reach the lower 50s with some partial sunshine.
High pressure ridges into the state tonight. Medium The ridging clears the area allowing for a return flow to set up with potential for some isentropic lift induced precip during the afternoon.
Quasizonal flow along the base of a broad longwave H5 trough highlights the upper pattern this morning across the southern Appalachians, while a cold front slowly slides southward across the lower OH valley.
346 AM MDT Sun Apr 1 2018 A weak ridge should keep skies clear this morning and allow high temperatures to reach the mid to upper 30s south of the Missouri River, although highs north will struggle to reach the low to mid 20s. This ridge quickly collapses ahead of a rather strong upper low approaching the region from the Pacific Northwest tonight.
/issued 403 PM EDT Sat Mar 31 2018/ SHORT TERM (Tonight through Monday night) Ever-diffusing cold frontal boundary is sagging into northern CWA this afternoon, with its enhanced convergence combining with land/marine convergence and relatively moist unstable atmosphere to induce scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over northwestern interior sections of South Florida this afternoon. Temperatures will be near seasonal normals, with highs mainly in the low 80s and lows in the 60s, except around 70F across the east coast metropolitan areas.
However I do think we will see some late day sun along with winds gradually turning to the southeast this should get most of the area into the low to mid 40s.
100 AM CDT Sun Apr 1 2018 /06Z TAFS/ A cold front has entered the northern Big Country, and will move south to KABI by or shortly before 13Z.
1223 AM CDT Sun Apr 1 2018 210 PM CDT A respectable cold front for early spring standards will shift into NE IL and NW IN through the remainder of the afternoon and early evening as low pressure across northern Lake Michigan will continue to deepen and quickly shift toward Quebec this evening. West to southwest wind gusts will continue to around 40 to locally 45 mph or so in the SW to W direction just ahead of the cold front. Clouds will scatter out overnight as high pressure will move in from the west. Wind chill readings at daybreak Sunday will begin mostly in the low to mid teens with some upper single digits too. The cooler than normal trend continues.
Central SD is already seeing light winds as they are closer to the high center.
Today Through Monday Night Surface cold front continues to slowly sink south early this morning, with isolated to scattered showers along and north of the boundary. High pressure and colder temperatures are expected to build in across northern Arkansas through the day. Even with clouds in place and rain chances persisting, temperatures across northern Arkansas will fall into the lower 30s with some patchy 32F readings expected.
Current satellite imagery reveals a trough off the West Coast. This trough will continue to stream thick mid and high level cloud into the area today, before crossing the state from late tonight through Monday. The main impact from this system will be increased winds and slightly cooler temperatures, although daytime highs are expected to remain above normal for early April.
It will sag into Middle TN today and hang around tomorrow, bringing scattered showers and an isolated rumble of thunder before lifting north Monday afternoon as a warm front.
Cooler and drier upstream dewpoint continue to spill into the area, leading to some low clouds over the area but no drizzle is expected this morning. A cold front Monday night will drop temps back into the 50s.