Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
A cold front moving through the region this afternoon and evening will cause showers, thunderstorms, and strong winds. With such a strongly sheared environment and weak instability, thunderstorms will be sheared apart quickly, and the only area they will be able to persist is right along the cold front, where frontal lifting will help sustain the updrafts. With the system exiting to the north and east, high pressure will develop over western Montana and central Idaho by the end of Sunday, allowing for temperatures to once again return to seasonal normals (or slightly warmer than that) through the middle of the week.
253 PM EDT SAT JUN 18 2016 Cool and dry high pressure will extend down the East Coast through the weekend. High pressure across the region will continue to allow for near to slightly below normal high temps on Sunday. Thus, expect we should see near to slightly warmer temps for Sunday, with mostly sunny skies. Expect high temps will be in the lower to mid 80s. More of the same is expected on Sunday night, though the center of the high is forecast to shift a bit south and westward. Thus, given this and airmass modification expect overnight lows will generally be a few degrees warmer than tonight's values. Expect lows to range from the lower 50s in the usual rural cold spots to near 60 in the urban areas.
High pressure will continue to dominate our weather regime into Sunday morning, though begin to lose its grip a bit as we head into late Sunday. Mainly clear skies are expected once again tonight, though a light southerly breeze will develop helping to keep temperatures a few degrees warmer compared to last night.
High pressure at the surface and aloft will continue over the region.
The trough off the coast will keep on spinning and slowly retrograde westward. This will allow the strong upper ridge to expand westward towards our CWA. ECMWF is suggesting this ridge will keep on building westward, while GFS is indicating this ridge will weaken with passing upper level disturbances from the west. In this kind of situation involving blocking or slow-moving pattern, ECMWF tends to perform better than GFS.
217 PM EDT SAT JUN 18 2016 Cool and dry high pressure will extend down the East Coast through the weekend. Low pressure will remain off the Carolina coast, as high pressure extends across the area.
106 PM CDT SAT JUN 18 2016 Little change to the upper level ridge in command of the heart of the CONUS. A low pressure system is coming onshore across the pacific NW. Ridge builds a little over the central Rockies today.
155 PM EDT SAT JUN 18 2016 In the wake of a cold frontal passage, abnormally dry and cool high pressure will build in over the weekend.
Cooler temps are expected with a chance of rain areawide as moisture levels increase with a weakness in the ridge overhead.
140 PM EDT SAT JUN 18 2016 Cool and dry high pressure will extend down the East Coast through the weekend. Meanwhile, heights aloft will slowly rise across the area today and tonight as ridging builds eastward from the desert southwest. Those conditions, and climatology for forecast low level thickness values around 1375 m, favor low temperatures in the lower to middle 50s, except upper 50s in the Coastal Plain and ERN Sandhills. Low pressure will remain off the Carolina coast, as high pressure extends across the area.
An upper low over the Pacific northwest coast will continue to move inland into northern Idaho this afternoon into this evening. As this low moves east it will swing a strong cold front across our western areas early evening and the remaining portions of our forecast area late this evening into the early morning hours Sunday. Drier air aloft has mixed down this afternoon from Livingston to Sheridan resulting in temperatures climbing into the 90s with humidities into the lower teens.
Although drier air is slowly filtering in with the ridge, upper 60s to around 70 degree dew points remain across the south/west closer to the inverted trough. 19 Humidity levels will be lowering over the weekend as cooler air pushes in from the east.
1133 AM MDT SAT JUN 18 2016 Patch of stratus has developed over Pueblo County this morning, and will likely to continue expanding over the lower Arkansas Valley early this morning. and 597 decameter ridge will continue to expand Nwd through NM today. Will be another mild night as the ridge continues to build leading to a scorcher day on Sunday. 600 decameter 500mb ridge over the state, with temperatures of +15C to +22C at 700mb makes for a hot and dry day across the CWA.
Mid/upper level trough and weak surface boundary will lead to another relatively active day Sunday. Am carrying 50 to 60 percent POPs across the entire area with the highest chances generally southwest of the tidal lakes.
349 PM MDT SAT JUN 18 2016 Broad high pressure aloft centered across New Mexico will shift a bit North and become more elongated across Colorado on Sunday.
Surface obs indicate temperature trends are running a little warmer than forecast, and highs in the 95-97 degree range are certainly possible especially for the western two-thirds of the CWA.
Isolated to scattered convection is forecast to develop across the state this afternoon and evening, but the coverage of storms is forecast to be on the low side so have decided to keep thunder out of the forecast for now. Today Through Sunday Night A large ridge of high pressure encompasses most of the U. with an upper trough over the west coast. This upper ridge will continue over the central part of the country through Sunday night. Upper low pressure will strengthen over the northeast U.
536 PM EDT SAT JUN 11 2016 Shower and thunderstorm chances will increase this afternoon and tonight as a cold front approaches.
Slight chance of late day showers or thunderstorms across the higher elevations of the northern Sierra Nevada south of Lake Tahoe. A similar pattern for NorCal is in the offing for Sunday as the trough shifts east and fills over NorCal. Brief ridging behind the trough will result in warmer temperatures for most areas Sunday along with lighter winds by the afternoon.
Increasing influence of upper-level ridge upstream should allow ceilings to scatter out by mid-late morning Sunday. /issued 443 AM CDT SAT JUN 11 2016/ SHORT TERM (Today through Sunday): Broad 500 mb troffing will prevail over much of the Lone Star state throughout the weekend. Short term model guidance tries to form up a closed 500 mb low over the central and northern portions of the state later tonight into Sunday with this closed low starting to move up to north or northeast on Sunday. Will maintain afternoon pops in the 20 to 30 % range for today and Sun as enough instability and mid level troffiness could help along some isold/sct afternoon conv.
605 PM EDT SAT JUN 11 2016 A cold front will drop through the region tonight, accompanied by isolated showers. Behind this front, cooler and breezy weather is expected on Sunday. More showers will drop southeast into central NY with a cold front and upper level short wave. Warm front is across the far ne cwa in Oneida County. Later tonight, the main surface cold front and upper-level trough sweep through from NW-SE. Surface ridging will continue to build over the northeastern states early this coming week, effectively blocking any real moisture return from the SW.
359 PM CDT SAT JUN 11 2016 An upper ridge continues to dominate most of the country east of the Rocky Mountains. However, a weak trough is drifting eastward across the Southern Plains underneath the ridge. This trough has provided just enough additional lift for widely scattered convection across much of the region. Dewpoints are expected to remain in the low to mid 70s overnight, so another warm night is expected.
Sct convection will again develop by Sunday afternoon as a weak closed low drifts E into SE OK/SW AR/NE TX. Therefore, will let the high temperature forecast ride for now.
304 PM CDT SAT JUN 11 2016 It is a typical summer afternoon out there today, with temperatures in the low to mid 90s and isolated to scattered thunderstorms.
Rain chances will then end past midnight with temperatures falling into the low to mid 70s and cloud cover gradually decreasing. Weak low offshore the south Florida coast weakens with Atlantic high pressure ridge axis building back down across the area. Models indicate this will shift deeper moisture south with drier mid layer air moving into the region with the ridge.
639 PM EDT SAT JUN 11 2016 A strong area of low pressure will approach from central Canada tonight and cross the area on Sunday.
330 PM CDT SAT JUN 11 2016 Currently, a low pressure system is centered in southeastern MT with a warm front extending east through northern SD. This warm front will lift north through the forecast area tonight, providing a focus for elevated thunderstorm development. As the warm front in SD lifts north tonight, MU CAPE values will be around 1500-3000 J/kg with effective shear of 30-40 kts, supporting the possibility of severe storms across much of the area (basically north of Wahpeton). There may be a lull by late morning ahead of the cold front and upper wave.
128 PM EDT SAT JUN 11 2016 Atlantic high pressure will prevail this afternoon while a trough of low pressure strengthens inland.
It looks dry then much of tonight as a backdoor cold front drops quickly through bringing drier air in from the northeast. It will likely be dry across the forecast area for the afternoon hours under high pressure. Temperatures Sunday will be near normal, except a bit cooler near Lake Michigan under northeast winds.
Light showers were present across portions of the central and northern San Joaquin Valley as well as along the Sierra Nevada this afternoon as an upper low moved slowly northeast toward southern California. The high resolution models initialized poorly with these showers, never indicating showers in the valley. The upper low is forecast to lift northeast into central California Sunday morning into the evening hours, bringing the possibility of thunderstorms to the San Joaquin Valley as well as the Sierra Nevada. In fact, the models indicate thunderstorms beginning as early as early Sunday morning as the center of the low is positioned directly over the San Joaquin Valley by 12z Sunday. By Sunday night the upper low will open and shift east into Nevada and Arizona with lingering showers over the Sierra Nevada into Sunday night.
1259 PM CDT SAT JUN 11 2016 Another hot one is in store for the forecast area on Saturday as the mid level ridge remains in place. The mid 60 Tds along with temperatures in the lower 90s will contribute to heat index values approaching 100 degrees this afternoon. Expect a nearly carbon copy for Sunday, with the mid level ridge firmly in place, contributing to subsidence and more warm temperatures. Once again, with humid conditions and temperatures in the lower 90s expect heat index values to rise into the upper 90s to perhaps 100 degrees in some locations.
338 PM CDT SAT JUN 11 2016 The central CONUS ridge is gradually making its eastward progression with the following trough positioned across the West Coast. Center of the low will continue to deepen but has a northeastern track with a lagging southern portion running from California to the Baja.
230 PM EDT SAT JUN 11 2016 High pressure will dominate the local weather pattern through Sunday with normal sea breeze front thunderstorm activity being the main initiator of convection.
214 PM EDT SAT JUN 11 2016 High pressure today. Cold front early Sunday.
upstream portion of 500-mb ridge amplifies in advance of trough moving into SoCal. Weak upper low over TX/OK Red River valley finally drifts away toward the NE. despite growing influence of upper ridge. TX will be on the subsident front side of the aforementioned ridge.
1108 AM PDT SAT JUN 11 2016 Cooler, breezy, and showery and unsettled weather will impact the Inland Northwest Today, then drier weather returns Sunday. The upper level low over the area is quite conditionally unstable per 12Z KOTX sounding showing a trope just slightly above 500mb with 500mb temperatures a bit over two standard deviations on the cold side at around -25C with associated one to two standard deviations on the warm side at 200mb above the trope. likely small due to the low trope height. /Pelatti 18Z TAFS: A conditionally unstable trof of cold air aloft will allow for showers and thunderstorm occurrence in the aviation area today with the most of the activity north of a line from Wenatchee to Spokane.
306 PM CDT SAT JUN 11 2016 Skies are partly cloudy across much of the forecast area this afternoon with temperatures in the low to mid 90s. Temperatures will remain warm with lows Sunday morning in the low to mid 70s. With more clouds expected on Sunday temperatures will be a little cooler with highs from the upper 80s to lower 90s.
325 PM EDT SAT JUN 11 2016 High pressure will continue to promote a clear to mostly clear sky overnight. they will bottom out 3-5 degrees warmer than last night in the low to upper 60s. This increased boundary layer moisture underneath the ridge may lead to a little more cloud cover for Sunday. The early part of the extended will see a strong high pressure ridge continue to dominate weather across the Southern Appalachian Region.
700 PM EDT SAT JUN 11 2016 A cold front will move south across the forecast area tonight.
319 PM CDT SAT JUN 11 2016 At H5 strong ridge from eastern Gulf of Mexico into central Canada. Upper closed low over southwest Canada with trough along the west coast. Closed low over southern Hudson Bay. With the cold front approaching the panhandle and a potent LLJ in place, lift should be sufficient to support at least some elevated shower or storm activity. Made little adjustment to min temps with a thermal ridge overhead, continued southerly flow, and no significant decrease in moisture. Although cooler highs are still expected, confidence was too low to make an adjustment more than a couple degrees. Main forecast challenge will be frontal passage across western Nebraska Sunday night with precipitation and cooler temperatures. Timing of cold front will be the key to ongoing precipitation.
404 PM EDT SAT JUN 11 2016 A strong area of low pressure will approach from central Canada tonight and cross the area on Sunday.
401 PM EDT SAT JUN 11 2016 High pressure today. Cold front early Sunday.
155 PM CDT SAT JUN 11 2016 Weak mid level vorticity maxima, or convection spawned MCVs, swirling around an upper trough over the Texas Panhandle and Oklahoma will keep thunderstorm chances in the forecast over the Permian Basin and southeast New Mexico Plains through Sunday. Southeasterly low level upslope flow will persist during this time also, which will continue a feed of low level moisture into the higher terrain during this time.
isolated showers will continue across the plains along the NE-SW trough axis until the mid evening hours. It will be warm tonight with lows in the u60s across the lower ark rvr valleys regions. Robust 500 mb trough will be moving across the Great Basin region tomorrow. isold storms over the lower plains. tomorrow will be a bit cooler than today by a few degrees across most if not all of the region.
302 PM CDT SAT JUN 11 2016 The 12Z upper air analysis indicated a mid-tropospheric ridge over the cntrl Plains. This system is expected to top the ridge over the next 24 hours with the associated frontal boundary dropping into the the northwest CWA by Sunday evening. Another hot day is in store for Sunday with the only change to forecast highs being an increase of a category over the northwest FA directly ahead of the surface cold front.
Highs will reach the low to mid 90, with heat indices in the mid to upper 90s. weak convergence and pre frontal trough continue to spark off a shower or 2 from time to time. Will still watch cold front coming in later this evening into the overnight hours. Weak pre- frontal trough and convectively enhanced short wave moved through northeast area earlier today helping bring sfc winds around to west northwest. Main synoptic cold front slides south through the area overnight. High pressure will be over the area at start of period but will be sliding east as return flow develops. Another upper midwest MCS looks likely Sunday night as short wave tops plains ridge.
Due to the dry sub cloud layer of 10kft and warmer air mass it will take fairly strong updrafts to produce severe hail. Initially shear will be weak, however as a cold front approaches the region increasing veering might support more organized cells before potential mergers occur.
308 PM CDT SAT JUN 11 2016 High pressure. The boundary between the warm humid air mass and the cooler Canadian air is marked by a surface front that is draped across the Northern Plains. currently situated along the TX-OK border will attempt to undercut the ridge as well providing an impetus for some diurnal convection. the upper level ridge remains over the central portion of the country.
655 PM EDT SAT JUN 11 2016 A cold front will drop through the region tonight, accompanied by isolated showers. Behind this front, cooler and breezy weather is expected on Sunday. More showers will drop southeast into central NY with a cold front and upper level short wave. Warm front is across the far ne cwa in Oneida County. Later tonight, the main surface cold front and upper-level trough sweep through from NW-SE. Surface ridging will continue to build over the northeastern states early this coming week, effectively blocking any real moisture return from the SW.
202 PM EDT SAT JUN 11 2016 High pressure centered offshore will shift southeast as a weak cold front approaches from the north late Sunday.
Broad weakness in upper ridging will continue to allow diurnal convection each day through the first part of the work week. The weakness will shift eastward as the upper ridge strengthens over the local area mid week.
A few showers are also developing along a cloud line over the lower Keys, and stronger storms are lingering just off the mainland in the vicinity of Key Largo and Ocean Reef. Although high pressure tries to gain control of the pattern across south Florida and the Keys thereafter, the overall pattern remains relatively weak for the following several days, through the end of the forecast in fact.
Southwest flow will continue across the region through the weekend as an upper trough deepens along the west coast. Moisture ahead of this trough will spread north across Utah today and remain in place through the weekend.
/issued 155 PM CDT SAT JUN 11 2016/ Weak mid level vorticity maxima, or convection spawned MCVs, swirling around an upper trough over the Texas Panhandle and Oklahoma will keep thunderstorm chances in the forecast over the Permian Basin and southeast New Mexico Plains through Sunday. Southeasterly low level upslope flow will persist during this time also, which will continue a feed of low level moisture into the higher terrain during this time.
1023 AM PDT SAT JUN 11 2016 Cooler, breezy, and showery and unsettled weather will impact the Inland Northwest Today, then drier weather returns Sunday. The upper level low over the area is quite conditionally unstable per 12Z KOTX sounding showing a trope just slightly above 500mb with 500mb temperatures a bit over two standard deviations on the cold side at around -25C with associated one to two standard deviations on the warm side at 200mb above the trope. likely small due to the low trope height. /Pelatti 12Z TAFS: An upper low moves inland today, providing a threat of scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms. High pressure starts to build in tonight, with clearing skies.
Meanwhile a weak and compact upper low was centered over north central Texas this afternoon. However, height falls and a relative increase in mid level lapse rates associated with this upper low will mean that elevated nocturnal convection should spread into the western parts of the state beginning a few hours before daybreak Sunday. This will be especially trough in the west and southwest parts of the forecast area, which may not even reach 90 degrees tomorrow.
Otherwise, not much change for Sunday as a weak upper level trough keeps an unstable airmass overhead.
345 PM CDT SAT JUN 11 2016 High pressure centered over Manitoba was over the MN and western WI this afternoon. and with the weak cold air advection temperatures were much cooler than yesterday and dewpoints at least 10 degrees lower. this cooler and drier weather will not last long. an area of low pressure was forming in the lee of the central Rockies with a warm front extending east across southern MN.
329 PM CDT SAT JUN 11 2016 A weak upper level low continues to spin near Childress and the lift associated with this system has been responsible for the areas of convection this afternoon across the northern parts of the state. This activity will diminish with the loss of heating, however with the upper low to our west we expect some redevelopment late tonight and early Sunday morning to occur.
602 PM EDT SAT JUN 11 2016 A cold front will move south across the forecast area tonight.
Meanwhile, there is a trough moving this way across Washington and Oregon, trying to push some of the cloud cover east.
A trough will move east of the region tonight with showers gradually ending.
A dome of high pressure will remain anchored over the Quad State today, and allow us to again heat up into the 90s with humidity creeping up as well. The upper ridge will actually migrate overtop the Mississippi valley with time this weekend, lingering the heat and humidity into the early week.
150 PM EDT SAT JUN 11 2016 Westerly flow between high pressure to our south and an approaching cold front to our north will bring hot temperatures to the region today. The cold front will sag south into the area tonight, continuing slowly south across the Ohio River valley on Sunday.
Northwest and southwest Montana have the highest chances to see showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 69 94 71 94 / 0 20 10 20 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 68 92 69 92 / 0 10 10 20 Oak Ridge, TN 68 93 70 92 / 0 10 10 20 Tri Cities Airport, TN 62 89 64 88 / 10 10 20 10.
347 PM EDT SAT JUN 11 2016 A cold front will move south across the forecast area tonight.
109 PM EDT SAT JUN 11 2016 Atlantic high pressure will prevail this afternoon while a trough of low pressure strengthens inland.
238 PM EDT SAT JUN 11 2016 Shower and thunderstorm chances will increase this afternoon and tonight as a cold front approaches.
Highs will reach the low to mid 90, with heat indices in the mid to upper 90s. Weak pre- frontal trough and convectively enhanced short wave moved through northeast area earlier today helping bring sfc winds around to west northwest. Main synoptic cold front slides south through the area overnight. High pressure will be over the area at start of period but will be sliding east as return flow develops. Another upper midwest MCS looks likely Sunday night as short wave tops plains ridge.
457 PM EDT SAT JUN 11 2016 High pressure centered offshore will shift southeast as a weak cold front approaches from the north late Sunday.
334 PM EST Tue Dec 13 2016 A weak occluded front will move through tonight followed by weak high pressure on Wednesday. An Arctic cold front will cross the area Wednesday night. A cold front will approach from the west tonight and move across the region Wednesday Morning. High pressure will move in behind the front during the day Wednesday. A weak low pressure system will then approach from the west late Wednesday.
1155 AM CST Tue Dec 13 2016 At 3 AM, the arctic cold front had moved south into southern Iowa. Another arctic cold front will move southeast across the area tonight.
The valleys such as Eureka, Polebridge, and Olney just to name a few could be several degrees below zero. The next snow producing weather system, that will first arrive as a warm front, is now forecast to arrive a little earlier.
Mostly clear and cold in Idaho north of the Snake Basin this evening, otherwise increasing clouds from the southwest as a Pacific warm front approaches.