Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
/ISSUED 332 AM CDT SAT MAR 26 2016/ BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY WILL BEGIN TO AMPLIFY TODAY WITH THE HELP OF A DIGGING DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. THE BEST MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS OUR EASTERN HALF THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY AND THAT IS WHERE THE HIGHEST POPS WILL RESIDE.
MID LEVEL TROUGH WAS PROVIDING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. AND ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGED ACROSS FL TO THE EASTERN GULF. THE MID LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SHARPEN UP SOME TODAY WITH HEIGHTS NUDGING SLOWLY NORTHWARD. AND COOLER ALOFT WITH THE 500 MB TEMPERATURE AT -12. HIGH PRESSURE REACHES ACROSS THE WATERS BUT WITH A RELAXED GRADIENT.
TEMPERATURES OVER NC WI ARE NEAR FREEZING AND THERE MAY BE A BIT OF -RA/FZRA AS THIS AREA MOVES THROUGH THIS MORNING. SHOULD SEE LOW PRESSURE IN THE LOW-LEVELS TOO TO ASSIST WITH CONVERGENCE AND LIFT. LARGE SCALE RIDGE BUILDING KICKS IN WITH A WARMING TREND.
WARMER AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TODAY AND TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE REGION. THEN AN UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL TRACK ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT BRINGING RAIN SHOWERS.
636 AM CDT SAT MAR 26 2016 12Z TAF CYCLE AN UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE PANHANDLES FROM THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BY TONIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE DALHART AND GUYMON TAF SITES BY 10Z SUNDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH QUICKLY BEGINS TO EXIT THE PANHANDLES BY 12Z SUNDAY. /ISSUED 225 AM CDT SAT MAR 26 2016/ A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER NORTHWEST UTAH WILL SWING SOUTHEAST TODAY AND IT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PANHANDLES TONIGHT.
WITH HIGHS TODAY EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S IN THE NORTHEAST TO THE LOW TO MID 70S IN THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. EJECTING FROM THE LARGER SYNOPTIC TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE ROCKIES. THE SYNOPTIC TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST TOWARDS ARKANSAS ON SUNDAY. THE TROUGH WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND THE BEST FORCING WILL BE LIFTING NORTH AS IT TRAVERSES THE OZARKS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AND MAINLY BEHIND THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE STATE. 5 C/KM RANGE AS THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH ARKANSAS SUNDAY SO DID LEAVE THUNDER IN THE FORECAST.
905 AM EDT SAT MAR 26 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION TODAY. NIGHT TIME SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS THE LOW CLOUDS ERODING SLOWLY. AS THE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE REGION THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE WITH MUCH OF THE ENDING UP BRIGHT WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. FAIR WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT BUT WITH THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TAKING ON A SE FETCH. FIRST OVER THE LOWER SUSQ COUNTIES. AND RISE INTO THE LOW OR EVEN MID 60S OVER THE FAR NW WHERE SUNSHINE WILL LAST THE LONGEST. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT IN DEVELOPING A RIDGE OVER NW NORTH AMERICA WHICH EVENTUALLY LEADS TO THE CARVING OUT OF A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US AND CANADA.
945 AM CDT SAT MAR 26 2016 AT H5 RIDGE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH BROAD TROUGH FROM INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS. INCREASED POPS ACROSS NORTHERN SHERIDAN COUNTY THIS MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR SNOW ALONG THE PINE RIDGE. MORE SIGNIFICANT WAVE ROUNDING TROUGH AND MOVING ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS THIS MORNING ON NOSE OF 100KT+ JET STREAM. H850MB TEMPERATURES WILL RISE SEVERAL DEGREES THROUGH THE DAY AS WARMER AIR ADVECTS EASTWARD. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S WEST AND MID 50S EAST.
A RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE KEYS THIS MORNING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING BACK INTO THE REGION AND SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW IS BRINGING SOME RELATIVELY DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. LOW-MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL CREEP BACK INTO SOUTH FLORIDA FOR THIS WEEKEND, WITH LAST NIGHT'S SOUNDINGS AT KEYW AND KMFL ALREADY SHOWING THE EVIDENCE WITH LOWER PWATS AND A DEVELOPING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AT 700MB. THE MOVEMENT OF THE RIDGE WILL RESULT IN AN OVERALL NORTHWARD SHIFT IN THE TRACK OF THE NEXT FEW UPPER LEVEL WAVES/LOWS TO THE PANHANDLE/NORTH FLORIDA ALONG WITH THE SURFACE BOUNDARY.
1130 AM EDT SAT MAR 26 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION TODAY. NO PROLEM AT ALL MAKING THE LOW CLOUDS GO AWAY THIS MORNING. NIGHT TIME SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS THE LOW CLOUDS ERODING SLOWLY. AS THE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE REGION THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE WITH MUCH OF THE ENDING UP BRIGHT WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. FAIR WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT BUT WITH THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TAKING ON A SE FETCH. FIRST OVER THE LOWER SUSQ COUNTIES. AND RISE INTO THE LOW OR EVEN MID 60S OVER THE FAR NW WHERE SUNSHINE WILL LAST THE LONGEST. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT IN DEVELOPING A RIDGE OVER NW NORTH AMERICA WHICH EVENTUALLY LEADS TO THE CARVING OUT OF A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US AND CANADA.
WARMER TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BENEATH INVERSION. SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE AND FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. HI RES MODELS ARE INDICATING A THIN LINE OF WEAK SHOWERS POSSIBLE ALONG AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT SUNDAY MORNING.
WITH STRONG UPPER JET ACROSS THE REGION AND APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH.
FRONT IS FORECAST TO RETREAT AS A WARM FRONT LATER THIS MORNING AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS WEAK LOW FORMS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO.
/ISSUED 353 AM CDT SAT MAR 26 2016/ FORECAST REMAINS GENERALLY UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AS INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT WILL CAUSE RAIN CHANCES TO GRADUALLY INCREASE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PARTS OF THE LOWER ATCHAFALAYA BASIN COULD SEE 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL BETWEEN LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING.
912 AM CDT SAT MAR 26 2016 SKIES ARE SUNNY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOWER 40S TO LOWER 50S. TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 30S WITH SEVERAL HOURS OF ADDITIONAL COOLING BEFORE SUNRISE. MORNING LOWS ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH WILL RANGE FROM NEAR FREEZING TO THE MIDDLE 40S. DEW POINTS IN THE LOW 60S ARE EXPECTED TO MAKE THEIR WAY INTO NORTH MISSISSIPPI CONTRIBUTING SURFACE BASED CAPE APPROACHING 1000 J/KG.
ISSUED 658 AM EDT SAT MAR 26 2016 QUIET CONDITIONS WILL HOLD THROUGH TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE ACROSS THE AREA. CHANGES COME ON SUNDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES UP FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND TRACKS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. ANCHORED BY A MAIN PV ANOMALY PIVOTING THROUGH THE MEAN TROUGH.
934 AM EDT SAT MAR 26 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEASTERN US THROUGH THE DAY. ON SUNDAY LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MIDWEST AND REACH LAKE ERIE SUNDAY EVENING.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH 00-02Z BEFORE MVFR CIGS/VSBY POSSIBLE ASSOCIATED WITH RA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF INCOMING TROUGH. /ISSUED 426 AM CDT SAT MAR 26 2016/ S/WV TROUGH EXITING REGION WITH SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS EXITING OUR CWA AT THIS TYPING. STALLING AHEAD OF NEXT TROUGH.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING SOUTHEAST ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN WILL BRING A WARM FRONT THROUGH WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TODAY.
south to southeast winds of 5 to 15 mph will aid temps this afternoon to be slightly warmer compared to yesterday with highs in the 60s to mid 70s possible. This wave is expected to push a cold front into and through the CWA this evening and overnight tonight with winds shifting out of the northwest.
In these spots, temps were in the lower 30s and even a few upper 20s early this morning. Sunday an upper level trough and sfc cold front will approach the Ohio Valley. However, convection along a warm front across the Gulf states may rob us of the better moisture return and instability limiting our severe wx threat. Under strong southerly flow ahead of the approaching wx system, high temps should reach the low to mid 70s on Sun.
Elevated shower activity will increase from west to east tonight in conjunction with another disturbance and surface cold front. A cold front will sag south across the area tonight as an upper level disturbance approaches from the west.
743 AM EDT SAT MAR 26 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION TODAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE REGION TO START THE NEW WORK WEEK WITH FAIR WEATHER RETURNING FOR MID WEEK NIGHT TIME SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS THE LOW CLOUDS ERODING SLOWLY. AS THE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE REGION THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE WITH MUCH OF THE ENDING UP BRIGHT WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. FAIR WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT BUT WITH THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TAKING ON A SE FETCH. FIRST OVER THE LOWER SUSQ COUNTIES. AND RISE INTO THE LOW OR EVEN MID 60S OVER THE FAR NW WHERE SUNSHINE WILL LAST THE LONGEST. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT IN DEVELOPING A RIDGE OVER NW NORTH AMERICA WHICH EVENTUALLY LEADS TO THE CARVING OUT OF A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US AND CANADA.
HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA.
/issued 253 AM CDT SAT MAR 26 2016/ (Today and Tonight) Weather across West Central Texas will transition from warm to cooler, during the next 24 hours. For tonight, another cold front will push south across West Central Texas and bring at least a slight chance for showers, mainly along and northeast of a line from Anson, to Abilene, to Baird.
935 AM EDT SAT MAR 26 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEASTERN US THROUGH THE DAY. ON SUNDAY LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MIDWEST AND REACH LAKE ERIE SUNDAY EVENING.
1028 AM EDT SAT MAR 26 2016 HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND.
TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 30S WITH SEVERAL HOURS OF ADDITIONAL COOLING BEFORE SUNRISE. MORNING LOWS ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH WILL RANGE FROM NEAR FREEZING TO THE MIDDLE 40S. DEW POINTS IN THE LOW 60S ARE EXPECTED TO MAKE THEIR WAY INTO NORTH MISSISSIPPI CONTRIBUTING SURFACE BASED CAPE APPROACHING 1000 J/KG.
HIGH PRESSURE IS OVER LOWER MICHIGAN, WHICH STRETCHES INTO QUEBEC. BEHIND IT IN W UPPER AND IN TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS IS AN INVERTED TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL BE OUR MAIN CONCERN IN THE NEAR TERM FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT. A FAIRLY WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT BRINGING INCREASING CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT RAIN.
1047 AM CDT SAT MAR 26 2016 High pressure off to the northeast as another wave moves northward over the Plains. High pressure will continue to pull away from the area, while a slow moving storm system approaches from the plains. Southerly low- level flow between these two features will push temperatures warmer than they were yesterday, with most areas topping out in the lower 60s. The high- resolution ARW/NMM are fastest and have almost the entire CWA dry by mid afternoon. Each is indicating only about a 4-6 hour period with the highest rain chances, but high enough that likely PoP's will be included everywhere (mainly west of I-55 in the morning and east in the afternoon).
1005 AM EDT SAT MAR 26 2016 HIGH PRESSURE EXITS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT.
BUT HAVE THUS FAR BEEN NOT HANDLED THE SNOW WELL SO WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE PINE RIDGE. AND CHEYENNE RIDGE THROUGH MID MORNING. WITH THE COLD TROUGH OVERHEAD. THE LEESIDE SFC PRESSURE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. TEMPS WILL INCREASE TO 40S/WEST AND 50S/EAST WITH HUMIDITIES ACROSS THE PLAINS DROPPING INTO THE LOW 20 PERCENT RANGE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
THERE WILL BE SOME STRONGER STORMS AROUND ON SUNDAY AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA.
KEPT COOLER TEMPS ACROSS THE FAR WEST/NORTH DUE TO PRECIP AND WHERE SNOW COVER STILL IN AREAS. TODAY'S PRECIP WILL BE ON ITS WAY OUT AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WITH SOME LINGERING POPS UNTIL 12Z SUNDAY IN THE NORTH ATTENDANT TO THE LOBE OF QG FORCING AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. ELEVATED H600-H500 FRONTOGENESIS WILL RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN BETWEEN 06 AND 18Z SUNDAY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT OVER NORTHERN MISSOURI AND SOUTHEAST IOWA.
843 AM EDT SAT MAR 26 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER WITH A WARMING TREND THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
628 AM CDT SAT MAR 26 2016 FOR 12Z TAFS /ISSUED 303 AM CDT SAT MAR 26 2016/ AT 300 AM SKIES WERE CLR WITH TEMPS IN THE LOWER 40S AND LIGHT WINDS. THEN BY THE AFTN SHOULD SEE A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUN ALLOWING TEMPS TO CLIMB INTO THE LOW/MID 70S. BY TONIGHT MOISTURE/CLOUDS BEGINS TO INCREASE AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROF/CDFNT. SUNDAY WILL BE THE BEST DAY FOR PCPN AS THE UPPER TROF/CDFNT MOVES ACROSS THE CWA BY SUNDAY NIGHT.
THE SNOW WILL GRADUALLY END FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. WARMER WEATHER WILL RETURN ON SUNDAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE AFFECTS THE REGION.
1055 AM EDT SAT MAR 26 2016 THE WEEKEND WILL BE DRY AND MILD WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL.
THERE WAS SOME CONCERN ABOUT THE PRECIPITATION CHANGING OVER TO SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN. ROAD TEMPERATURES AT LAST CHECK ACROSS THE NORTH WERE IN THE MIDDLE 30S DESPITE AIR TEMPERATURES HOVERING AROUND FREEZING EARLY THIS MORNING. ANY RAIN/SNOW MIX SHOULD END AROUND MID MORNING AS BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES WARM WELL ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS THE FAR NORTH. MODELS DEPICT LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION WITH A SWATCH OF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTH. AS THE COLD FRONT USHERS IN DRIER AIR. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN SATURDAY.
High pressure will continue to pull away from the area, while a slow moving storm system approaches from the plains. Southerly low- level flow between these two features will push temperatures warmer than they were yesterday, with most areas topping out in the lower 60s. The high- resolution ARW/NMM are fastest and have almost the entire CWA dry by mid afternoon. Each is indicating only about a 4-6 hour period with the highest rain chances, but high enough that likely PoP's will be included everywhere (mainly west of I-55 in the morning and east in the afternoon).
Highs today are expected to be in the low to mid 60s. Cold front will slowly seep southeastward and by late tonight should be nearly bisecting the CWA from NNE to SSW. Gosselin (Sunday through Sunday Night) On Sunday, cold front to slide through with main band of showers on back side of front. As for temps on Sunday, ranging from the upper 40s far north to the low 60s far southeast.
TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND INTO THE LOW 70S THIS AFTERNOON UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. THIS AFTERNOON HIGH THIN CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHEAST AS MOISTURE SNEAKS NORTH ALONG A WARM FRONT DRAPED OVER SOUTHERN GA AND SOUTH CAROLINA. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS MAY FOLLOW OVERNIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA AND OFF THE PLATEAU BY 09Z. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MILD TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK.
THIS IS REFLECTED IN WARMER TEMPS TODAY AS WELL. WEAK UPSLOPE AS WELL AS BEING FURTHER DISPLACED FROM THE HIGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE. THEY SHOULD BE DIFFICULT TO ERODE AS THERE WILL BE REINFORCING ELY FLOW AND SUBSIDENCE WILL BE VERY WEAK WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH STILL OVER THE MARITIMES. THE THETAE RIDGE BUILDING IN SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME LGT RAIN AND DZ TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. THE DEEPER LIFT COMES IN MON WITH THE H5 TROF AND EMBEDDED SHRTWV ENERGY. DESPITE THE MUCH COOLER AIRMASS IN PLACE ON TUE.
Will likely see a few light showers/sprinkles in these areas through the morning hours, otherwise dry and warmer conditions are expected for the afternoon hours as southerly winds continue. Northwest winds behind the front, combined with the clouds and showers will keep temperatures quite cool, with highs only in the lower to middle 50s. High pressure quickly builds in with much drier air working its way into the area, so expect a quick clearing trend.
ATTENTION WILL TURN TO THE DEEP TROUGH MOVING TOWARD THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
635 AM CDT SAT MAR 26 2016 AT H5 RIDGE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH BROAD TROUGH FROM INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS. MORE SIGNIFICANT WAVE ROUNDING TROUGH AND MOVING ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS THIS MORNING ON NOSE OF 100KT+ JET STREAM. H850MB TEMPERATURES WILL RISE SEVERAL DEGREES THROUGH THE DAY AS WARMER AIR ADVECTS EASTWARD. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S WEST AND MID 50S EAST.
1214 PM EDT SAT MAR 26 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEASTERN US THROUGH THE DAY. ON SUNDAY LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MIDWEST AND REACH LAKE ERIE SUNDAY EVENING.
1214 PM EDT MON AUG 17 2015 A WARM RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH TONIGHT AND THEN STALL ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY.
Another hot day on tap with upper level high pressure over the eastern Pacific and over the Southwest US, with a trough passing well to the northeast through the northern Rockies.
WITH THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS TO OUR NORTH. RIDGE AXIS NORTH OF THE WATERS WILL GENERATE A GENTLE E-SE BREEZE AROUND 10 KNOTS THROUGH TONIGHT WITH SEAS A LITTLE EITHER SIDE OF 2 FEET.
413 AM PDT MON AUG 17 2015 HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN THIS WEEK AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS NEAR THE WEST COAST. WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL WEAKEN THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING NEAR THE WEST COAST.
1102 AM EDT MON AUG 17 2015 A WARM RIDGE IN THE ATMOSPHERE WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S THIS AFTERNOON.
939 AM EDT MON AUG 17 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES TODAY ALLOWING FOR AN EASTERLY WIND FLOW OVER SOUTH FLORIDA.
1005 AM EDT MON AUG 17 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE THROUGH MIDWEEK.
823 AM EDT MON AUG 17 2015 WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL GIVE WAY TO AN INCREASINGLY MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. INCREASED SOUTHERLY FLOW FROM OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE AND AN UPSTREAM UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL ADVECT MOIST AIR NORTHWARD. CLOUDINESS FAVORED THE WARMER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE TONIGHT.
WITH A GENERAL WEAKNESS/INVERTED TROUGH AXIS DOMINATING THE UPPER LEVELS OVER THE CNTRL GULF STATES WHILE HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC BASIN. WITH HIGHS MORE IN THE LOWER/MID 80S VERSUS TYPICAL HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S/NEAR 90F. THE LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE CONTINUING TO HINT AT A FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT OUT OF THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS PUSHING EWD INTO THE MIDWEST/OH VALLEY AREAS WED INTO THU. IT MAY AT LEAST LOWER POPS MORE INTO THE ISO/SCT CAT AS WEAK RIDGING ALOFT REPLACES THE GENERAL TROUGH AXIS OVER THE CNTRL GULF STATES. 09 A WEAK UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES AND A PERSISTENT FEED OF GULF MOISTURE WILL BRING LIKELY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND T-STORMS TO THE REGION.
509 AM MDT MON AUG 17 2015 UPPER FLOW WILL CONTINUE OUT OF THE WEST NORTHWEST AHEAD OF A TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TUESDAY. BY TUESDAY NIGHT THE MAIN UPPER LOW CENTER WILL BE OVER EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA WITH NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
1116 AM EDT MON AUG 17 2015 UPPER TROUGH AND DEEP/MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW IS PRODUCING AMPLE LOW- MID CLOUDINESS ALONG WITH AREAS OF MAINLY SHOWERS SO FAR THIS MORNING. THE CLOUDS AND RAIN SHOWERS WILL HELP HOLD TEMPS DOWN IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S FOR MOST AREA.
1239 PM EDT MON AUG 17 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK.
758 AM EDT MON AUG 17 2015 WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL GIVE WAY TO AN INCREASINGLY MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. INCREASED SOUTHERLY FLOW FROM OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE AND AN UPSTREAM UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL ADVECT MOIST AIR NORTHWARD. CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT DIURNAL HEATING BUT STILL EXPECT HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER 90S. CLOUDINESS FAVORED THE WARMER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE TONIGHT.
851 AM PDT MON AUG 17 2015 HIGH PRESSURE INT HE NORTHERN PACIFIC WILL BUILD EAST TODAY ACROSS WESTERN WASHINGTON.
UPPER RIDGE WILL BE OVER FORECAST AREA. RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EAST OF THE WATERS WILL SUPPORT A GENERAL SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW NEXT FEW DAYS.
643 AM CDT MON AUG 17 2015 THE FORECAST CHALLENGES WILL BE ONGOING CONVECTION WITH A PRE- FRONTAL TROF AND SLOW MOVING FRONT AND THE NEXT STRONGER WAVE THAT WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS FOR THE REGION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THE H5 MAP HAD A BROAD TROF FROM CANADA INTO THE NORTHERN U. AND THE RIDGE WAS OVER THE EASTERN U. THE PRE-FRONTAL TROF WAS SOUTH OF LINCOLN WITH THE COLD FRONT SOUTH OF SIOUX CITY. THE LOW LEVEL FORCING WAS STRONGER IN THESE AREAS. HOWEVER THIS LOW LEVEL FORCING INCREASES TONIGHT.
636 AM CDT MON AUG 17 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN IL EARLY THIS MORNING IN A REGION OF VERY WEAK MEAN FLOW. THROUGH THE DAY DEEPENING TROUGHING OVER THE PLAINS WILL INITIATE SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA. EJECTING THE LOW TO THE NORTHEAST. UPPER LEVEL PATTERN SHIFT UNDERWAY AS TROUGH CONTINUES TO WIDEN ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN U. MORE DIGGING IS IN STORE BY MONDAY EVENING ACROSS THE PLAINS AS A CLOSED LOW STARTS TO TAKE SHAPE OVER SOUTH DAKOTA. EVENING MODEL SUITE COMING INTO MORE AGREEMENT WITH BRINGING A SURGE OF COOLER AIR SOUTHWARD OVER THE CENTRAL U.
THE SUN CONTINUES TO TRY TO BREAK THROUGH AND SOME LOCATIONS THAT HAVE SEEN A LITTLE MORE SUN HAVE MANAGED TO REACH THE LOWER 80S. THE UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST AND RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST.
A LARGE WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE EXTENDS WELL INTO THE SOUTHEAST UNITED AND MID ATLANTIC STATES. WITH OUR REGION WITHIN A DEEP TROPOSPHERIC WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. AND INSERT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER 90S.
720 AM EDT MON AUG 17 2015 A STRONG UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST TODAY. BUT THIS WILL SOON COME TO AN END AS THE HIGH/RIDGE SLIPS OFF TO OUR EAST AND AN INCREASINGLY MOIST SW FLOW DEVELOPS. THE SKIES REMAIN CLEAR TO SCATTERED UNDER THE HIGH. THIN CIRRUS CLOUDS STREAMING IN FROM THE NE AS THE RIDGE LINE AT JET STREAM LEVEL IS ACTUALLY NORTH OF THE REGION. AS THE HIGH SLIPS EAST AND WE WILL START TO SEE A RETURN FLOW FROM THE SW DEVELOP. I ALSO PUT A MENTION IN FOR THE SOUTHERN LAURELS WHERE HEATING OF THE HIGH TERRAIN COULD TRIGGER A STORM.
622 AM CDT MON AUG 17 2015 IN THE UPPER LEVELS A BROAD TROF OF LOW PRESSURE STRETCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE THE WRN 1/2 OF THE COUNTRY. IT'S THIS TROF AND EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES THAT WILL BRING RAIN TO THE NORTHLAND THIS WEEK. THE LOLVL JET OF 40 KTS CONTINUED ALONG A COLD FRONT THAT WENT THROUGH MOST OF THE AREA YESTERDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION WILL BRING SUNSHINE TO MN. DRIER AND COOLER TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED AS DEW POINTS DROP INTO THE 40S IN MN AND THE 50S IN WI. THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION TUESDAY. STRONG EAST WINDS WILL ALSO DEVELOP THE OF THE LOWS ADVANCE. AS THE LOW NEARS SRN MN TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
1256 PM EDT MON AUG 17 2015 THE SOUTH FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING HIGH MOISTURE TO THE FORECAST AREAS THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. THE MOISTURE IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTH FLOW CIRCULATING AROUND OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE. 25 OF AN INCH THROUGH TONIGHT WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE NORTH PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. CLOUDINESS FAVORS THE WARMER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE TONIGHT.
JMS /ISSUED 655 AM CDT MON AUG 17 2015/ A WEAK UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES AND A PERSISTENT FEED OF GULF MOISTURE WILL BRING LIKELY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND T-STORMS TO THE REGION.
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A CHECK OF LOW LEVEL WINDS MAKES IT LOOK LIKE ADIABATIC WARMING AND DRYING (DOWNSLOPING) IS DINING MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS HERE. NOT SURE EXPECTED TODAY'S CLOUD COVER WILL BE ENOUGH TO HOLD THIS REGION TO THE LOWER 80S.
A COLD FRONT IS SLOWLY APPROACHING THE AREA FROM CENTRAL AND EASTERN IOWA. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN IL EARLY THIS MORNING IN A REGION OF VERY WEAK MEAN FLOW. THROUGH THE DAY DEEPENING TROUGHING OVER THE PLAINS WILL INITIATE SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA. EJECTING THE LOW TO THE NORTHEAST. UPPER LEVEL PATTERN SHIFT UNDERWAY AS TROUGH CONTINUES TO WIDEN ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN U. MORE DIGGING IS IN STORE BY MONDAY EVENING ACROSS THE PLAINS AS A CLOSED LOW STARTS TO TAKE SHAPE OVER SOUTH DAKOTA. EVENING MODEL SUITE COMING INTO MORE AGREEMENT WITH BRINGING A SURGE OF COOLER AIR SOUTHWARD OVER THE CENTRAL U.