Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVING ONSHORE OVER SOUTHERN TO CENTRAL CA TODAY WILL MOVE OVER THE GREAT BASIN TONIGHT. ANOTHER ACTIVE DAY IN STORE THURSDAY AS THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA SYSTEM MOVES OVERHEAD AS AN OPEN WAVE TROUGH. DEEP MOISTURE COMBINED WITH JET LEVEL DIVERGENCE/DIFFLUENCE SUPPLIED BY A 70 KT JET MOVING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH COMBINED WITH LAPSE RATES MADE STEEPER BENEATH THE COLD CORE OF THE SYSTEM POINTS TO FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH COOLER 7H TEMPERATURES OVERHEAD WILL LEAD TO AFTERNOON HIGHS FROM 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMS.
THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH INTO SOUTHERN MICHIGAN THURSDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES NORTHEAST FROM COLORADO TO IOWA. CDFNT EXPECTED TO STALL OVERNIGHT IN AN E-W FASHION ACROSS OUR CWA AS RIDGE ALOFT MOVES EAST INTO OUR AREA AHEAD OF STRONG SHRTWV MOVG INTO THE SRN/CENTRAL PLAINS. EXCEPT PRBLY A LITTLE COOLER ACROSS NRN ZONES WHICH STAY NORTH OF FRONT MOST IF NOT ALL DAY.
THE LOW HAS SHOWN LITTLE MOVEMENT SO FAR TODAY AND CLOUDS AND SHOWERS/SPRINKLES HAVE KEPT TEMPS DOWN IN THE 70S. THE LOW SHOULD MOVE EAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND CONVERGENCE INTO IT MAY FOCUS THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATE TODAY AND THIS EVENING IN EASTERN OWYHEE COUNTY AND TWIN FALLS COUNTY. COOLER TONIGHT BUT QUITE WARM AGAIN THURSDAY UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
A combination of diurnal destabilization as well as increasing deep layer flow ahead of an approaching upper low which will reach the Four Corners region on Thursday could generate some strong storms heading into Thursday afternoon/evening, mainly from the Big Bend area northeastward through the Permian Basin. Persistent southeasterly flow at the surface has maintained low level moisture, while aloft, mid and upper level moisture has been on the increase as subtropical moisture is routed around the upper ridge. The aforementioned upper low, currently coming ashore on the central California coast per water vapor imagery, will move east and suppress the ridge, resulting in a return to southwesterly flow aloft and continued deep moisture transport.
314 PM PDT WED JUN 10 2015 SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A CLOSED UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE LOWER ELEVATIONS, MAINLY THE EASTERN HALF OF THE VALLEY THROUGH EARLY EVENING. DRIER WEATHER WILL BEGIN TO SET IN AS THE UPPER LOW SHIFTS EASTWARD LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY BUILD INTO THE REGION THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
THE RIDGE AXIS IS APPROACHING THE AREA BUT WILL LIKELY START SEEING THE INFLUENCE OF A STRONG UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY APPROACHING SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE 4-CORNERS REGION DURING THE DAY TOMORROW INDUCING SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE AXIS WILL STILL BE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS TOMORROW AFTERNOON BUT HEIGHTS WILL BE SLIGHTLY LOWER AS THE UPPER TROUGH GET CLOSER.
A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION.
226 PM CDT Wed Jun 10 2015 A weak convergence zone in the low levels of the atmosphere along with a mid-level wave/moisture maxima were just enough to get isolated showers and thunderstorms going today over portions of western Missouri. Models do indicate a weak short wave trough/vorticity lobe sliding out of eastern Kansas into western Missouri by Thursday afternoon. Temperatures on Thursday will be about the same, if not a degree or so warmer than today.
WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA AND TROPICAL MOISTURE STILL IN PLACE.
AS THE UPPER RIDGE REMAINS FIRMLY ANCHORED OVER NRN MEXICO. AND A WEAK UPPER TROF HOLDS OVER THE SERN U. UPPER RIDGE IS FCST TO CONTINUE RETREATING TO THE SW. AND THE TROF OVER THE SE WILL DRIFT W ALONG THE NRN GULF COAST. AN UPPER TROF IS FCST TO APPROACH FROM THE W WHILE UPPER RIDGING IS FCST TO BUILD IN JUST OFF OF THE SE COAST OF THE U. ESPECIALLY AS DISTURBANCES RIDE AROUND THE SWRN/WRN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE.
644 PM EDT WED JUN 10 2015 A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL BEGIN TO BUILD WESTWARD INTO THE REGION THURSDAY. AN UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST IS FORECAST TO BUILD WESTWARD INTO SOUTHEAST SC/GA CREATING MORE CAPPING ALOFT BUT DEEP MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. BY THURSDAY NIGHT MOST OF THE RAIN WILL TRANSITION OFFSHORE WHERE THE HIGHER INSTABILITY WILL BE.
GUIDANCE IS STILL PERSISTENT IN INDICATING A TAP TO DEEP TROPICAL AIRMASS BETWEEN A LONG WAVE TROUGH OUT WEST AND A RIDGE OFF THE EAST COAST.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL HELP TO KEEP MOST OF THE DAILY THUNDERSTORM FIELDS TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION.
THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN REMAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN ALABAMA. AS THE STRONG RIDGE DEVELOPS IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
JET STREAK/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF AK WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN CANADA BY 84 HOURS AND AMPLIFY THE PATTERN OVER THE NORTHERN STATES. WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS OVER MT AND NORTHERN WY AND ANOTHER OVER SOUTHWEST CO. UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS WILL CONSOLIDATE SOUTH OF THE AREA OR OVER SD AND NE TONIGHT THEN ACROSS SOUTHERN MN ON THU. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA ON FRI. APPROACHING TROUGH WILL RETURN MOISTURE NORTH.
518 PM EDT WED JUN 10 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT. THE RIDGE ALOFT WILL BUILD NORTH ONCE AGAIN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND WHEN SUMMERTIME HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE THE RULE. THE COLD FRONT/BOUNDARY SETS UP SOMEWHERE OVERHEAD AS THE BIG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE HOLDS IT UP. MAXES ON THURSDAY WILL TAKE A RUN AT 90F IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS IN THE SE WITH 80S ELSEWHERE.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD LINGER INTO THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE GULF WATERS WITH CLOSER PROXIMITY TO MID LEVEL TROUGHING. HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL BUILD BACK ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD BECOMING THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE. THE STRONGER RIDGING WILL ALSO ALLOW OVERALL COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION TO DECREASE AND BE RELEGATED MAINLY TO THE INTERIOR AND GULF COASTAL AREAS DUE TO THE MORE EASTERLY FLOW PATTERN. SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN LOOKS TO REMAIN FAIRLY CONSISTENT LOOKING LONG RANGE WITH EASTERLY FLOW PERPETUATING ALONG WITH STRONG RIDGING BEING PREDOMINANT. HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA BEGINNING ON THURSDAY USHERING IN AN EASTERLY FLOW REGIME.
THE AIRMASS IS COOLER TODAY BUT TWO AREAS OF INTEREST WILL STILL BRING A CHANCE OF PRECIP. A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSED THE CANADIAN BORDER THIS MORNING.
345 PM EDT WED JUN 10 2015 HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH HOTTER TEMPERATURES.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY THE MAIN TROUGH WILL BE MOVING EAST OF THE AREA BY THURSDAY EVENING WITH A LINGERING MID LEVEL CIRCULATION STILL OVER NORTHWEST WYOMING. ANOTHER WEAK COOL FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTH ACROSS WYOMING BEHIND THE TROUGH AND WILL INITIATE A FEW MORE SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL SLIDE OFF TO THE SOUTH ALONG WITH CLEARING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS THE MAIN TROUGH EXITS THE AREA TO THE EAST.
1223 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2015 COLD FRONT MAKING PASSAGE THROUGH THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. A NICE DAY IS ON TAP AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS ACROSS THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CREEP INTO AREAS MAINLY ALONG/WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AFTER MIDNIGHT AS ISENTROPIC LIFT/850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT PUSH IN AHEAD OF SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS AND A WARM FRONT EXTENDING ALONG I-80.
325 PM EDT WED JUN 10 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT AND BRING SHOWERS WITH THE CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM. HIGH PRESSURE WITH DRY AIR WILL RETURN FOR TOMORROW BRINGING WARM AIR AND SUNNY SKIES.
AS AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. WE'RE STARTING TO SEE AN ENHANCED CU FIELD ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE HIGHWAY 64 CORRIDOR (ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE SURFACE DEWPOINT AND MLCAPE GRADIENT) AND IN THE SW PIEDMONT AND SANDHILLS (ALONG DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BANDS FROM THIS MORNING'S STRATUS). -GIH HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO RISE ON THURSDAY AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST BUILDS BACK TO THE WEST. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 90S AND LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL FEATURE MORE READINGS IN THE LOW 70S. GRADUAL RETROGRESSION AND STRENGTHENING OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS WILL PRODUCE A LARGELY DIURNAL CONVECTIVE PATTERN EACH DAY.
139 PM EDT WED JUN 10 2015 WEAK HIGH PRESSURE HAS PUSHED EAST AND WILL ALLOW FOR WARM AND HUMID SOUTHERLY FLOW TO REESTABLISH ITSELF. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN INDIANA AND OHIO BY THIS EVENING AND MAY PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE ON THE CLIMB AND BE IN THE LOWER 90S BY THURSDAY. AND AS THE LOW LEVEL JET SHIFTS AND WEAKENS THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. LATEST NAM AND HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST THAT CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP ALONG A COLD FRONT TO OUR NORTHWEST. MOST OF THE AREA WILL SEE MOSTLY SUNNY AND VERY WARM TO LOCALLY HOT CONDITIONS IN A WAA REGIME WELL AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. HIGHS WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 80S TO THE LOWER 90S.
657 PM EDT WED JUN 10 2015 LOW PRESSURE MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS QUEBEC TONIGHT WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
Water vapor and Platteville profiler shows a wave moving across Colorado as well as a moisture plume across the high plains into Nebraska. Thursday, an upper level trough will move across the Central Plains through the day with the best lift focused across eastern Nebraska into northwest Iowa and southern Minnesota. Given the high precipitable water and potential for training, flooding will be a concern.
SHORT TERM: (Through Late Tonight) Dewpoints in the low to mid 70s have pooled along stalled frontal boundary over southern Iowa/northern Missouri this afternoon helping to generate CAPEs in excess of 5000 J/kg. Highs will be in the low to mid 90s once again with heat indicies near 100.
301 PM EDT WED JUN 10 2015 SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY NORTH OF PITTSBURGH AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION LATE TODAY AND OVERNIGHT. A SLIGHT RISK OF ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES THE AREA. THE UPPER FLOW IS PROGGED TO TURN SOUTHWEST LATER THURSDAY PUSHING THE FRONT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT.
THE CLOUDS ARE ALONG A LOW LEVEL TROF THAT SANK SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA LAST NIGHT. THE LOW CLOUDS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO BURN OFF THIS MORNING BUT THE FEW SITES THAT STILL HAVE CIGS ARE NOW ABOVE 1000 FEET.
CONVECTION HAD BROKEN OUT OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN AND SOME WEAK SHOWERS WERE OVER THE E ZONES. THIS LIFT WILL COMBINE WITH LIFT FROM THE INVERTED TROUGH. KEPT LIKELY POPS OVER FAR SE MT AND SHERIDAN COUNTY THU MORNING IN THE VICINITY OF THE INVERTED TROUGH AND LIFT FROM THE JET. IT WILL BE COOLER THAN TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S AND 70S. A CUTOFF LOW WILL MOVE E THROUGH SW CANADA ON FRI AND ENERGY WILL ROTATE AROUND THE BASE OF THE LOW FRI NIGHT. THE LOW WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT SE INTO THE AREA ON FRI.
THE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES CONTINUES TO STAY STATIONARY DUE TO A HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES.
A cold front will sag into northern KS and northwest MO Thursday evening and will likely spark additional showers and thunderstorms. Cold front should be moving fast enough to prevent a widespread heavy rain threat although pockets of heavy rain are certainly possible especially over northwest MO.
A PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE GREAT BASIN TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
THIS PATTERN INCLUDES A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ENTRENCHED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AND A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. AHEAD OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH. TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM REMNANT PACIFIC TROPICAL WAVES/CYCLONES INCREASES THE ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE CONTENT TO LEVELS WELL ABOVE NORMAL.
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S AND LOWS IN THE 70S.
355 PM EDT WED JUN 10 2015 A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL BEGIN TO BUILD WESTWARD INTO THE REGION THURSDAY. WITHIN A PLUME OF ENHANCED MOISTURE EAST OF AN UPPER LOW/ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH AXIS. AN UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST IS FORECAST TO BUILD WESTWARD INTO SOUTHEAST SC/GA CREATING MORE CAPPING ALOFT BUT DEEP MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. BY THURSDAY NIGHT MOST OF THE RAIN WILL TRANSITION OFFSHORE WHERE THE HIGHER INSTABILITY WILL BE.
515 PM EDT WED JUN 10 2015 SCATTERED SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE NORTH OF PITTSBURGH AS A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. A SLIGHT RISK OF ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES THE AREA. THE UPPER FLOW IS PROGGED TO TURN SOUTHWEST LATER THURSDAY PUSHING THE FRONT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT.
A DEEP LAYER SUBTROPICAL ANTICYCLONE REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. SKIMMING THE TOP LAYERS OF THIS RIDGE IS A TROUGH IN THE UPPER LEVELS. RECENT GOES-BASED SATELLITE SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME WARMING WITHIN THE LOWER LEVELS COMPARED TO THIS MORNING'S RAOB OBSERVATION. THE MEAN ANTICYCLONE HAS PROBABLY REACHED SOME OF ITS AXIS WESTWARD FROM THE BAHAMAS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABLE TO WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S AREA WIDE BEFORE THE NEXT ROUND OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP.
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT HAS CAUSED SEVERAL DRY DAYS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS CONTINUES TO SLIDE BACK TO THE WEST INTO MEXICO WITH WV IMAGERY SHOWING DRY AIR FROM THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA TO TEXAS. WITH THE TROUGH AXIS CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN AZ-NM TOMROROW NIGHT. DRY AIR AND SOME RESIDUAL SUBSIDENCE INVERSIONS ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE RIDGE SHOULD KEEP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS VERY ISOLATED TODAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
106 PM EDT WED JUN 10 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA TODAY. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH INTO SOUTHERN MICHIGAN THURSDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES NORTHEAST FROM COLORADO TO IOWA. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS WISCONSIN TODAY AND SHOULD BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY OVER NORTHERN INDIANA AND NORTHERN OHIO BY THIS EVENING. FAVORED THE HIGH RESOLUTION NCEP MODELS THAT APPEAR TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE WITH THE FRONT AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF AFTERNOON STORMS.
326 PM EDT WED JUN 10 2015 HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES.
A MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL SLOWLY BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST AS SUBTLE TROUGHING TAKES RESIDENCE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.
115 PM PDT WED JUN 10 2015 WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA AND TROPICAL MOISTURE STILL IN PLACE.
SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING OUT OF NERN NM ONTO THE CNTL HIGH PLAINS HELPING PULL PERSISTENT MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE EWD. MID LEVEL INSTABILITY REMAINS EVIDENT AHEAD OF AND WITH THE UPPER TROUGH IN THE FORM OF WIDESPREAD ACCAS ACROSS THE WESTERN PANHANDLE AND NWRN SOUTH PLAINS. ENHANCED NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL INFLOW MAY ALSO BE ABLE TO SUSTAIN THESE CELLS BEFORE ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT BECOMES POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT WITH APPROACH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH/LOW.
EXPECT A FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT. THURSDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD BE NOTABLY COOLER ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES. ALOFT: THE POLAR JET WILL REMAIN WILL N OF THE FCST AREA WITH A LOW AMPLITUDE TROF OVER THE W AND A RIDGE IN THE E. THE LOW MOVING INTO CA WILL OPEN UP AND MEANDER E THRU THE CNTRL/SRN ROCKIES. THEN INDICATIONS FROM THE GFS/EC/GEM ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE THAT A LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS. SAT: MORE TSTM POTENTIAL WITH THE TROF REMAINING OVERHEAD. TSTM THREATS APPEAR TO DECREASE WITH TEMPS INCREASING AS A RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. WITH CIGS EVENTUALLY LOWERING SOME ON THURSDAY BEHIND THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT.
WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE POP GOING OVERNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE MIDLEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL BE PASSING OVER THE AREA.
An upper level ridge will remain in place across the area, inhibiting rain chances, and continuing the warming trend. Temperatures have warmed into the lower to mid 90S this afternoon with only a few clouds across the area, and models keep the forecast dry through tomorrow with the ridge aloft.
THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT UPPER LOW COMING ONSHORE OVER CA IS PUSHING NEXT WAVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
241 PM EDT WED JUN 10 2015 A COLD FRONT OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TODAY WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST REACHING NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT. THE RIDGE ALOFT WILL BUILD NORTH ONCE AGAIN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND WHEN SUMMERTIME HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE THE RULE. 5 INCHES INVOF A WARM FRONT ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN AND NRN OHIO. THE COLD FRONT/BOUNDARY SETS UP SOMEWHERE OVERHEAD AS THE BIG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE HOLDS IT UP. MAXES ON THURSDAY WILL TAKE A RUN AT 90F IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS IN THE SE WITH 80S ELSEWHERE.
307 PM EDT WED JUN 10 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY.
UPPER RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD INTO THE AREA WHICH WILL BRING DIMINISHING PRECIPITATION CHANCES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY.
245 PM PDT WED JUN 10 2015 UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA WILL INCREASE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ESPECIALLY FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL TRACK EASTWARD AND EXIT INTO THE GREAT BASIN ALLOWING FOR A RETURN TO HIGHER PRESSURE BRINGING DRIER CONDITIONS AND AN UPWARD TEMPERATURE TREND. UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL CALIFORNIA AS CLOUDS ROTATE AROUND THE DISTRICT. AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST TODAY. THE MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER LOW WILL ALLOW FOR DIMINISHING WINDS IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE UPPER LOW MOVES CLOSER TO ARIZONA ON THURSDAY.
Conditions will rapidly dry across the Northern Rockies Thursday, beneath a ridge of high pressure.
ALTHOUGH OUR REGION IS SITUATED UNDER A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH, THE GLOBAL NWP GUIDANCE INDICATES MINIMAL Q-G FORCING.
KEPT THE HIGHEST POPS OUT WEST. THE LOW LEVEL JET.
TEMPERATURES WERE RUNNING A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR WITH READINGS MAINLY IN THE LOWER 90S. HEAT INDICES WERE BETWEEN ONE AND THREE DEGREES WARMER IN MOST SPOTS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF COASTAL STATES WILL RETROGRADE WESTWARD. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40 WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH MS.
302 PM EDT WED JUN 10 2015 LOW PRESSURE MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS QUEBEC TONIGHT WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE PASSING THROUGH WILL KEEP IT QUIET THROUGH TONIGHT. WITH COOLER TEMPS ALOFT THAN LAST NIGHT. THUS EXPECTING COOLER LOW TEMPS THAN LAST NIGHT. AS ANY TIMING DIFFERENCES WILL LIKELY RESULT IN TEMPS A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER OR COOLER THAN FORECAST HIGHS.
152 PM PDT WED JUN 10 2015 A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH CENTERED NEAR THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON WILL BRING A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.
303 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2015 COLD FRONT SLOWLY EDGING TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON IN A MUGGY AIRMASS. THE 12Z MODELS SHOW THE COLD FRONT PROGRESSING NORTHWARD IN THE MORNING, IN RESPONSE TO DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
WRLY STEERING FLOW WILL PUSH SHRAS/TSRAS OFF THE EAST COAST THRU EARLY EVENING WITH ACTIVITY BURNING OUT BY 11 PM AS RAIN COOLED AIR STABILIZED THE LOW LVL AIRMASS. EVENTUALLY MERGING WITH A SECOND FRONTAL TROF PUSHING OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL ALLOW THE ATLC RIDGE AXIS OVER THE FL STRAITS TO LIFT NWD ACRS THE FL PENINSULA. BUT WITH DECREASED COVERAGE FROM TUE/WED AS THE RIDGE AXIS ITSELF WILL ACT TO SUPPRESS THE LCL AIRMASS WHILE BLOCKING OUT ANY MID LVL VORTICITY.
EXPECT A FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT. THURSDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD BE NOTABLY COOLER ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES. ALOFT: THE POLAR JET WILL REMAIN WILL N OF THE FCST AREA WITH A LOW AMPLITUDE TROF OVER THE W AND A RIDGE IN THE E. THE LOW MOVING INTO CA WILL OPEN UP AND MEANDER E THRU THE CNTRL/SRN ROCKIES. THEN INDICATIONS FROM THE GFS/EC/GEM ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE THAT A LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS. SAT: MORE TSTM POTENTIAL WITH THE TROF REMAINING OVERHEAD. TSTM THREATS APPEAR TO DECREASE WITH TEMPS INCREASING AS A RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY THURSDAY WHICH SHLD BE SOUTH OF TERMINALS.
245 PM EDT WED JUN 10 2015 HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES.
411 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015 220 AM CDT HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE WEATHER TODAY AND LIKELY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE RIDGE CENTER IS POSITIONED WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL WARM TO NEAR SEASONAL CONDS IN THE LOWER 80S. CLOSER TO LAKE MICHIGAN TEMPS MAY BE JUST A FEW DEGREES COOLER. ELSEWHERE WITH THE RIDGE CENTER DISPLACED NORTHEAST OF THE CWFA. HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL AGAIN APPROACH THE LOW 80S.
WITH WARMER CONDITIONS ALONG/SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD BACK INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
AN EARLY MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY REGION. NOTED BY READINGS IN THE LOW/MID 60S COMPARED TO LOW/MID 70S CLOSER TO THE TN BORDER. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 500 MB HEIGHTS SHOWED THE PERSISTENT RIDGE WEST / TROUGH EAST PATTERN. EARLY MORNING READINGS WERE IN THE LOW/MID 70S WITH LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
SEASONABLY COOLER AIR WILL ARRIVE INTO THE AREA FOR TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
303 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015 UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A DEEP 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE EAST HALF OF NORTH AMERICA WITH A CLOSED LOW OVER CENTRAL ONTARIO. UPPER FLOW CONTINUES TO BE FROM THE NORTHWEST AND THE TROUGH AXIS WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST THIS FORECAST PERIOD. ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY THAT OCCURS DURING THE DAY TUESDAY AS AN ASSOCIATED TROUGH AXIS CROSSES UPPER MI SHOULD END BY TUESDAY EVENING UNDER INCREASED DRYING AND DEEP SUBSIDENCE. HAVE STEERED CLEAR OF THE COLDEST GUIDANCE FOR NOW AS ANOTHER WEAK MID-LEVEL TROUGH CROSSING THE AREA OVERNIGHT MAY BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS. BUT YET ANOTHER SUBLTE TROUGH LOOKS TO REACH THE WESTERN CWA LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. A SHALLOW LAYER OF MOISTURE BETWEEN 800 AND 850 HPA COMBINED WITH WEAK FORCING FROM THE TROUGH MAY BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE LIGHT SHOWERS.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A CLEAR PICTURE OF WHAT IS HAPPENING THIS AFTERNOON AS A CYCLONE IS LIFTING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE GREAT BASIN. THE MONSOON PLUME HAS BEEN PUSHED EAST OF THE ROCKIES BY THE INFLUX OF STRONGER WESTERLY FLOW WRAPPING INTO THE LOW. EXPECT ANY RESIDUAL MOISTURE TO BE LIFTED BY THE TERRAIN WINDS TO PRODUCE SOME RIDGETOP BUILDUPS.
ELEVATED CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER CENTRAL WY. THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS CLOSED LOW OVER THE GREAT SALT LAKE. THETA-E ADVECTION WILL INCREASE TONIGHT ACROSS WESTERN SD AHEAD OF APPROACHING TROUGH. BEST CHANCE OF HEAVY RAIN WILL BE TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE LOW ALONG AN AREA OF ENHANCED FRONTOGENESIS. AND COULD BE COOLER WITH AFOREMENTIONED CLOUD COVER.
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE SLIGHTLY COOLER. MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. LARGE UPPER LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE TIP OF JAMES BAY. THE BETTER CHANCES WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE NORTHERN ZONES /FINGER LAKES THROUGH SYRACUSE-UTICA AREAS/ WHICH WILL HAVE BOTH MORE INSTABILITY FROM COOLER AIR ALOFT. WITH A COLD FRONT HAVING PASSED THROUGH. THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE CENTERED OVER CENTRAL QUEBEC. WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE DRY REGIONWIDE WITH LOWS ONLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S.
UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTERED OVER NORTHWEST TEXAS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT WESTWARD INTO THE DESERT SW DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WHILE A PLUME OF MOISTURE REMAINS STRETCHED ACROSS THE CWA. A SLIGHT INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER DEVELOPS WITH THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION AND SO DOES THE LOW TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE MID 70S ACROSS THE AREA.
334 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST AND THROUGH THE STATE EARLY THIS MORNING.
UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ADVANCING INTO NORTHWEST PART OF FORECAST AREA EXPECTED TO INDUCE FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF MID-LEVEL TROF.
242 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015 A COLD FRONT CROSSES THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY.