Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
604 AM CST Sat Dec 24 2016 Upper level ridge will give way to SW flow as a strong short wave approaches from the 4 corners area. SFC obs indicate at least some holes in the low cloud cover beneath the higher clouds with holes in the stratus evident on IR satellite. The holes have been filling in after the high clouds slide SE.
These mild temperatures are an effect of warm air advection pushing into the area ahead of an approaching cold front and upper level storm system. Water vapor analysis also depicts the jetstream rounding the base of the upper level trough associated with this cold front. The previously mentioned cold front will have pushed east of the forecast area by Sunday afternoon, opening the door for much cooler temperatures Christmas night.
Isolated showers will develop across portions of the Rio Grande valley and northern ranchlands today through Sunday as a 500mb trough across the far western United States this afternoon moves eastward Sunday.
1026 AM EST Sat Dec 24 2016 A weak cold front will move across the region this afternoon. High pressure returns for Christmas Day.
Models are converging on an idea with the highest QPF amounts focused along the MT/ND border.
Main trough of interest though was still back along the west coast. Strongest winds (estimated at over 120 kts) still appeared to be on the backside of the trough.
943 AM EST Sat Dec 24 2016 A cold front associated with low pressure moving through eastern Canada will cross our region today.
600 AM EST Sat Dec 24 2016 A weakening cold front will cross the area this morning. High pressure will build across eastern Canada and New England on Christmas day. Strong low pressure will track across the northern plains states Sunday.
This activity is located just north of a warm front, and is supported by an extremely moist atmospheric column, with a two sigma high anomaly of precipitable water value indicated at the 00z LZK sounding. The warm front will move northward, clearing the state by early evening.
A large upper level trough extends N-S across far western U. The rain/snow mix east of Boise should change to all snow by early morning as colder air aloft arrives with the trough. Northwest winds will develop behind a cold front, becoming locally breezy with gusts to 25 mph this afternoon. The upper trough axis will move into the region tonight and shift to our east on Sunday. A drier air mass will gradually work into the region behind the departing trough.
707 AM EST Sat Dec 24 2016 A weakening cold front will cross the area this morning. High pressure will build across eastern Canada and New England on Christmas day. Strong low pressure will track across the northern plains states Sunday.
427 AM PST Sat Dec 24 2016 Exiting low pressure with diminishing mountain showers this morning will bring cold overnight temperatures the next couple nights.
A Pacific cold front will pass through KCNM and KHOB in the 09-11Z time frame early Christmas morning, bringing winds sharply to the west to southwest with wind gusts AOA 30 kts. A large upper trough developing across the West will transition mid level flow to the southwest over our region today. The upper trough will become negatively tilted and lift into the Plains during the day Sunday. While there will be a 50 kt LLJ out ahead of the system, strong winds will also spread east behind a Pacific cold front Sunday morning.
A few rain and snow showers with the cold upper level trough this morning will come to an end as as the air mass gradually dries.
The snow levels will drop rapidly as a cold front sweeps across the area. A strong storm system and cold front are still on track to affect Arizona today and tonight. Christmas day will be much colder with gradually decreasing snow showers over the higher terrain.
648 AM EST Sat Dec 24 2016 A cold front will move across the area this morning, followed by high pressure briefly building in this afternoon and tonight. As the high moves off the the east, a warm front will lift north and cross the entire area Sunday night.
Patchy fog developed early this morning behind a cold front.
A strong low pressure system will move east across the region today and this evening.
534 AM CST Sat Dec 24 2016 Low clouds and fog blanket central Illinois early this morning as a mild/moist airmass continues to flow northward into the area ahead of an advancing trough of low pressure. to the lower to middle 40s elsewhere. In the meantime, light easterly flow north of an approaching warm front will ensure another cloudy and foggy night. Warm front will lift into central Illinois on Sunday, bringing scattered rain showers through at least the first half of the day. to the lower to middle 50s across the remainder of the region.
Models show a weak cold front will be pushing on through the region this morning. The front will lift back north as a warm front tonight into Sunday.
632 AM EST Sat Dec 24 2016 High pressure off the Mid-Atlantic Coast will move farther offshore today as a front stalls to our north. The front will dissipate tonight allowing a ridge of high pressure to spread across the region from the north on Christmas Day.
Otherwise, we'll see some scattered to broken cumulus/stratocumulus develop with temperatures topping out in the lower to mid 80s, except along the coast where the sea breeze will hold readings in the 70s.
Saturday night into Christmas morning - precipitation should begin to ramp up as a potent area of low pressure develops out of the Intermountain West and translates into the Northland. There are still some slight variations in the track of the low pressure center across the synoptic guidance, but in general, the low is progged to track across our northwestern forecast area. A warmer air mass on the leeside of the low pressure center, aided by strong southerly 70+ kt 850 mb low level jet winds, will set-up the area for a winter mix. However, both are indicating a deep enough cold layer near the surface to indicate more sleet than freezing rain, but there is still uncertainty with this at this time.
High pressure continues to hold over the region which is providing an easterly flow of warm, moist Atlantic air over southern Florida. As the holiday weekend draws to a close, the focus moves towards the central part of the country as successive frontal systems push through this week with little impact to Florida thanks to the high pressure over the region.
Temperatures will increase as this warm moist air streams northward, and so while there could be a brief period of freezing rain/drizzle in portions of central Nebraska, the majority of the area will have temperatures above freezing as precipitation begins. The upper low moves out of the Rockies and moves to the northeast into the northern plains during the day on Sunday. By afternoon, the upper low is moving to the north enough that the precipitation should start to pull out of the area. The cold front moves through the forecast area during the day on Sunday and by Sunday night, the cold air starts to move into the area.
616 AM EST Sat Dec 24 2016 High pressure off the Mid-Atlantic Coast will move farther offshore today as a front stalls to our north. The front will dissipate tonight allowing a ridge of high pressure to spread across the region from the north on Christmas Day.
1018 AM EST Sat Dec 24 2016 High pressure off the Mid-Atlantic Coast will move farther offshore today as a front stalls to our north. The front will weaken tonight allowing a ridge of high pressure to spread across the region from the north on Christmas Day.
A high amplitude upper trough will dig into the SWrn US today and enhance a strong conveyor belt of low level winds/moisture across TX. This trend reinforces the low QPF values that suggest that no thunderstorms are expected for today with mainly some light streamer showers.
Would not rule out an isolated thunderstorm this evening ahead of the line in the unstable air as the flow aloft backs some as an upper level trough digs across the central Rockies. More significant unsettled weather is expected to begin by Thursday and continue into the weekend as a large upper level trough evolves and digs across the western half of the nation.
A reinforcing cold front or surge of colder air will begin moving south into the Oklahoma and northern Texas Panhandles by Thursday afternoon and then across the remainder of the forecast area Thursday evening and Thursday night. Low level Gulf moisture will surge north and west into the eastern portions of the Panhandles Thursday night and interact with the cold front resulting in increasing convection over mainly the eastern Panhandles Thursday afternoon. A short wave trough will track south and east out of the Great Basin region and central Rockies Thursday afternoon and then across the central Plains states Thursday night.
Sub-freezing overnight temperatures will be possible in many areas through Thursday night. The biggest impacts for the short-term forecast will come from isolated showers this evening towards the Oregon border, patchy freezing fog for the Sierra Valley and near Truckee, and freezing temperatures for area valleys. These chances diminish greatly toward Thursday morning as upper troughing lifts and shifts over the Rocky Mountains. As such, temperatures will once again be around, to a few degrees below, freezing for Western Nevada valleys. Otherwise, temperatures will be trending warmer as high pressure builds off the California coast and translates eastward into the weekend.
1147 AM MDT WED OCT 5 2016 Updated to remove freeze headlines as temperatures have risen above freezing for most areas. Glance at surface observations across northwest Colorado showing most sites at or above freezing although we still have a few hours to go and some clearing noted on satellite over this area. Convectively enhanced showers linger through Thursday afternoon as the trough passes to our east and northwest flow settles back in. Showers will come to an end by Thursday evening as drier northwest flow moves in behind the departing upper level trough.
a broad trough was located over the w CONUS, with the trough axis just west of Las Vegas NV. Mostly clear skies will prevail across the lower elevations, with min temps running several degrees warmer than last night. There may be a reading or two at or just below freezing across N El Paso county tonight. Across the mtns, trough will continue to move slowly east. Models have backed off pops across the lower elevations, and I have significantly reduced or eliminated the chance of precip over the plains tomorrow. As for max temps, it will be cooler tomorrow with highs reaching aoa 70F across most over the lower elevations, and aoa 60F in the San Luis Valley. An additional inch or two of snow will be possible across the higher elevations of the C mtns.
While deep layer moisture is expected to increase later in the day and overnight, it will not reach the high PWAT values (2+ inches) observed over the Jacksonville area.
220 PM EDT WED OCT 5 2016 A pressure ridge will extend along the Appalachians with an inverted trough just off the Southeast coast through Thursday.
the area sits beneath a weak ridge with plenty of dry air aloft. Those weather systems are: 1) The moisture associated with Hurricane Matthew 2) A cold front approaching our area from the west.
Watch out for black ice on bridges and overpasses as well.
251 PM EDT Wed Oct 5 2016 High pressure will remain ridged over the region through the week and bring pleasant autumn days with highs in the 70s.
243 PM EDT Wed Oct 5 2016 High pressure should maintain dry weather through much of the work week. Moisture from Matthew from the south and an approaching cold front from the west will increase the chance for rain this weekend. High pressure should maintain dry weather tonight.
128 PM EDT Wed Oct 5 2016 High pressure will maintain dry and warm weather until the approach of a cold front this weekend. Upper-level ridge axis will shift eastward on Thursday night and Fri, leaving the forecast area beneath weak southwesterly upper flow.
301 PM EDT Wed Oct 5 2016 A large area of high pressure will keep mainly clear skies and mild air over the region for the rest of the work week. A cold front will move through the area over the weekend and bring scattered showers. Much cooler air comes in bhd the fnt and Matthew Sun ngt and Mon. Attm looks like the higher elevations will struggle to get out of the 40s Mon aftn under le clds. Except for the dense valley fog that will develop again over the twin tiers tonight high pressure will provide VFR conditions.
A closed low is slowly moving north out of MT/ND with attendant wave moving through MS/OH Valleys. A jet rounding the base of the CONUS trough will strengthen some as it crosses the Rockies with weak perturbations along the southwesterly flow. Increased moisture convergence along the stationary boundary will occur as a lee low develops ahead of a reinforcing cold front moving in Thursday afternoon/evening. This is contingent on how far north moisture is able to get prior to cold front's arrival. and GFS poor handling of previous cold fronts and availability of moisture.
226 PM EDT Wed Oct 5 2016 High pressure over the northeastern United States will keep fair weather across the region through late week.
Added mention of isolated thunderstorms as well this afternoon as some storms are developing in the base of the upper level trough over Salt Lake City. Expect clouds and showers to increase this evening as the leading edge of the trough and upper level jet push through the region overnight. Convective showers will remain in place through Thursday afternoon with little additional accumulation under northwest flow as backside of the trough passes through. Conditions will clear behind this trough Thursday night with freezing temperatures possible in some areas.
Upper ridge will build over Norcal through the rest of the week providing dry conditions with a warming trend.
Drier conditions and warmer temperatures are expected for the later part of the week as high pressure builds across the region.
610 PM EDT Wed Oct 5 2016 High pressure will maintain dry and warm weather until the approach of a cold front this weekend. Models still insist that the lower clouds will break up over the next few hours and will persist with that thinking. High pressure remains in control at the surface and aloft through Thursday. Temperatures will run above climatology, with warmer maxes tomorrow afternoon as compared to today. Upper ridge departs early in this period, and a frontal boundary encroaches from the west. There are still some timing issues to deal with regarding the front and its associated mid level trough.
A dry northwest flow continues over central CA behind a broad trough over the north central CONUS. This feature will act as a kicker and push the trough further east on Thursday.
306 PM EDT Wed Oct 5 2016 High pressure will remain in control across the region through first half of the weekend. After coordination w/GYX, decided to go w/patchy frost for the low lying areas but not as widespread as the last few mornings. Thursday will be another pleasant day and warmer w/most areas apchg 70F or slightly warmer.
150 PM EDT Wed Oct 5 2016 Dry weather continues through the rest of the work week as a ridge of high pressure builds in over the Northeast. High pressure continues over the region through the near term, resulting in clearing skies and light winds tonight.
456 PM EDT WED OCT 5 2016 A pressure ridge will extend along the Appalachians with an inverted trough just off the Southeast coast through Thursday.
Though we have a cold front coming through this morning, its cold air will be going across ND into NW MN.
359 PM EDT Wed Oct 5 2016 High pressure over the northeastern United States will keep fair weather across the region through late week.
402 PM EDT Wed Oct 5 2016 High pressure over the northeastern United States will keep fair weather across the region through late week.
Clouds will increase later in the night as moisture and milder temps aloft advect in from the south ahead of approaching low pressure.
146 PM EDT Wed Oct 5 2016 Valley fog and scattered clouds early this morning, will give way to sunshine during the day as high pressure takes charge.
Synoptic Setup: short term begins with a large trough over the central third of Canada which dips into the northern Plains of the CONUS. This trough has tapped into cold arctic air from up north and is rapidly dragging it down around a low pressure system which is slowly exiting to the east. A cool Pacific Ridge has set up over the pacific Northwest and southern British Columbia in response.
548 PM EDT Wed Oct 5 2016 High pressure will remain ridged over the region through the week and bring pleasant autumn days with highs in the 70s.
There is expected to be a mix of SCT to BKN midlevel clouds this afternoon in advance of an approaching cold front and narrow corridor of midlevel moisture. There is dependence on exactly where the weak surface cold front will stall out in addition to how much precipitation will fall. Potent PV anomaly rotating around the upper low will maintain a healthy LLJ over the western and northern portions of the Great Lakes through today. The next wave, currently coming onshore over the North Coast of California, will pivot through the longwave trough and elicit a LLJ response immediately upstream in similar fashion to today's wave.
Upper low spinning over the Dakotas has ejected a disturbance that is swinging across the Ohio Valley today. Ridging is finally winning out this afternoon, with just some mid-level clouds remaining. Ridging overhead will continue to strengthen through Thursday night, so it looks like largely a persistence forecast, especially in terms of temps. Not expecting any precip as any additional disturbances swinging through the upstream trof appear weaker than today's disturbance and will keep their energy well to our north and west.
Unsettled weather continues as a series of weak low pressure systems moves through the region. However, additional snow accumulations will be light with around an inch possible mainly for the higher terrain. Expect cold temperatures tonight with lows near freezing. Another low pressure system, this one currently moving through Washington and Oregon will arrive on Thursday. Thursday night might bring the best chance for a widespread freeze with current forecast lows across the Snake Plain headed into the Magic Valley in the low to mid 30s.
342 PM EDT Wed Oct 5 2016 A large area of high pressure will keep mainly clear skies and mild air over the region for the rest of the work week. A cold front will move through the area over the weekend and bring scattered showers.
410 PM CDT WED OCT 5 2016 Latest WV imagery and UA analysis shows a large trough over the wrn CONUS beneath a large upper low spinning over SE Saskatchawan. At the sfc, high pres was ridging swwd into LA and E TX, resulting in an E to SE wind field acrs the area. Drier air will begin to nudge into the region overnight as low lvl ridging becomes elongated to the SW and Matthew crosses the Bahamas, moving toward the ern coast of FL.
323 PM EDT Wed Oct 5 2016 A large high pressure system centered over New England will extend down the east slopes of the Appalachians into tonight. This high will remain in place through Thursday night.
Slight increase in southeast flow has aided radiational fog development as saturated air is pushed uphill into cooler saturated air from metro to the Flint Hills.
126 PM EDT Wed Oct 5 2016 High pressure will remain over New England and the eastern Great Lakes through Thursday.
1255 PM CDT Wed Oct 5 2016 Weak front pushing into western MO this morning will stall out somewhere near or south of I-70 today, then push back north as a warm front later this evening. Despite the presence of this boundary, a lack of any deep synoptic-scale ascent should keep most of the day dry although some thunderstorm development is possible later today and overnight as a LLJ strengthens and feeds into the retreating warm front. Several additional rounds of showers and thunderstorms are possible throughout the day Thursday in a continuous warm air advection regime, with the highest chances coming later in the evening when a cold front will swing in from the west.
348 PM CDT Wed Oct 5 2016 A large area of low pressure in the mid and upper levels of the atmosphere will continue to churn over a wide swath of south central Canada tonight and Thursday. On the far southern periphery of this low, an upper trough/short wave will move into the Colorado and Wyoming Rockies tonight, and extend throughout the central Dakotas and central Nebraska on Thursday. This will allow surface cyclogenesis to form near the Oklahoma panhandle tonight, with the low organizing into an inverted trough on Thursday as it kicks out into the central plains. The lower level frontogenesis is primarily extended throughout northwest Iowa closer to the frontal boundary.
354 PM CDT WED OCT 5 2016 (Tonight and Thursday) Warmer than normal temperatures highlight the forecast for the next 24 hours. The upper trough axis, which water vapor imagery places over the far western CONUS, progresses into the Rockies by tomorrow afternoon.
Winds will remain around 10kts thru the day with a lee trof across the ern NM pLains.
Weak high pressure will slowly move through the area late this afternoon and evening keeping skies mainly clear. Showers and thunderstorms are likely, and may come in the form of broken line, along and ahead of an attendant cold front.
623 PM EDT Wed Oct 5 2016 High pressure will remain over the New England States through Thursday.
The upper low that brought the rain and snow to the forecast area the past couple of days has, for the most part, finally moved out of our forecast area and is situated over southern Canada. These two factors may keep some locations from hitting freezing. In any case, we still believe some areas will see freezing tempeatures tonight.
Dry weather and warmer interior temperatures will prevail late in the week as high pressure moves over the region. High pressure will fill in behind this system bringing drier weather to northwest California for the second half of the week. A continued strengthening of high pressure to our west will maintain conditions in this threshold through Thursday morning.
340 PM EDT Wed Oct 5 2016 High pressure will remain over the New England States through Thursday.
222 PM MDT Wed Oct 5 2016 The lead short wave in the broad upper trough extending from the intermountain west through the plains states continues to lift northeast over the Great Lakes this evening as the second short wave dives into the base of the trough overnight tonight. This second short wave trough begins to lift out across the Central and Northern High Plains during the day on Thursday. A colder high pressure area moves quickly into the central high plains behind a cold front by late Thursday. As skies clear and winds go light Thursday night temperatures will fall into the lower to middle 30s.
All other models keep dewpoints in the low to mid 50s but spread the moisture further north and west. This increased moisture will also impact morning low temperatures tomorrow morning as lows over the northwestern South Plains/southwestern Texas Panhandle will depend on when the low-level moisture starts to increase and whether radiational cooling can drop temps below guidance values once again. Opted to go with cooler temps as we should see dewpoints stay in the 30s and winds remain light and variable before sunrise or the better moisture mixes into this area.