Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1043 PM EDT Thu Jun 13 2019 Surface observations at 02z show the scope of the cold, dry air advection associated with NW flow across the region as high pressure shifts eastward toward our region. High pressure at the surface and subsidence east of the 700mb ridge axis will allow for a clear sky and warmer, but still below normal, temperatures on Friday. Chattanooga Airport, TN 53 80 60 86 / 0 0 0 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 51 78 56 84 / 0 0 0 10 Oak Ridge, TN 50 78 56 84 / 0 0 0 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 47 74 52 82 / 0 0 0 10.
927 PM EDT Thu Jun 13 2019 Occasional showers will plague the Ohio Valley tonight as a cold front moves eastward across the region. Building high pressure will bring dry conditions on Friday, with temperature rebounding to near climatological average by the weekend. Nwly flow aloft will become zonal on Sat as the base of a Hudson Bay upper low flattens.
830 PM MDT Thu Jun 13 2019 Several waves are crossing broad upper level ridge over northern Rockies. Surface trof is along eastern MT- Wy will continue to move across the forecast area overnight, with winds becoming northwest behind it. More waves will flatten the upper ridge, bringing scattered storms on Friday.
946 PM EDT Thu Jun 13 2019 West winds will increase tonight in the wake of a cold front exiting to the east.
Current gusty winds will subside overnight as high pressure continues to build in with a clear sky.
614 PM CDT Thu Jun 13 2019 High pressure at the surface today making way for fair weather and very comfortable conditions at the surface. By Friday the mid level flow becomes a bit more zonal as the mid level trough that came through the area Thursday moves east and the trailing ridge also moves east with it.
514 PM MDT Thu Jun 13 2019 A high amplitude trough covers the eastern CONUS, with ridging over the west, including a weak wave pushing into the northern plains. Surface winds are southerly, between a ridge to the east and a trough to the west. More waves will flatten the upper ridge, bringing scattered storms on Friday.
635 PM EDT Thu Jun 13 2019 High pressure and drier air will continue building into the area overnight.
/issued 338 PM CDT Thu Jun 13 2019/ Dry weather will continue though the end of the week as high pressure dominates the Mid-South. High temperatures will in the lower 80s with lower dewpoints.
615 PM CDT Thu Jun 13 2019 Large upper low looming just to the east this afternoon, with partly sunny skies over a scattered to broken cumulus field on visible satellite imagery. Minimum temperatures by dawn will be in the upper 40s in the east, and lower 50s in the west where the winds will have started to pick up a southerly component on the back side of the ridge.
Upper air analysis reveals a rather deep 500mb trough across the eastern CONUS. GEFS normalized anomalies prog this trough to be 3 standard deviations below normal across the Ohio Valley, and as one would expect, a very seasonally cool air mass is associated with this trough. The cold front associated with this trough has passed through the region this morning, and CAA along with lingering stratus has helped keep the diurnal range in temperatures to a minimum. High pressure will slowly build into central Kentucky overnight. Outside of urban areas, morning lows should drop down into the mid to upper 40s for many spots as high pressure moves nearly over south-central Kentucky. Temperatures will be a little warmer tomorrow, generally mid to upper 70s, but dewpoints will remain low setting up a rather pleasant day under mostly sunny skies.
700 PM EDT Thu Jun 13 2019 Periodic showers will plague the region through tonight as a cold front moves east. Building high pressure will bring dry conditions on Friday, with temperature rebounding to near climatological average by the weekend. Nwly flow aloft will become zonal on Sat as the base of a Hudson Bay upper low flattens.
738 PM EDT Thu Jun 13 2019 A cold front will push across the state this evening.
830 PM EDT Thu Jun 13 2019 Periodic showers will plague the region through tonight as a cold front moves east. Building high pressure will bring dry conditions on Friday, with temperature rebounding to near climatological average by the weekend. Nwly flow aloft will become zonal on Sat as the base of a Hudson Bay upper low flattens.
Best coverage of precipitation likely across far northern Oklahoma toward and after 12Z as mid-level trough progresses over region but this activity will mainly be elevated showers with embedded TSRA possible.
Skies are expected to be mostly cloudy with overnight lows in the low to mid 70s. This will bring a brief period of light northerly winds in the morning before winds quickly veer NE/ENE in the afternoon as broad high pressure builds over the southeastern U. Winds will gradually veer from westerly to northerly and then northeasterly as a weak frontal boundary moves over the waters and high pressure builds in to our north.
953 PM CDT Thu Jun 13 2019 Temperatures are struggling to fall tonight, and with the low level jet increasing this eveing, expect the trend to continue. A 40 to 50 kt low level jet will develop across much of the area overnight, and will see winds pick up a bit, more so in the higher elevations. With continuing warm air advection, Friday will be an even warmer day with highs into the upper 70s to mid 80s.
831 PM EDT Thu Jun 13 2019 Only minor adjustments made to temp/dewpt trends this evening, otherwise forecast on track to have a quiet ridge dominated reprieve to the area. High pressure will build over the area overnight and Friday.
Several boundaries will be in place with a warm front in central North dakota in the afternoon with a following cold front by evening. Thursdays highs were warmer than most guidance. So for today used the European mean mos guidance which was about 5 degrees warmer than the NBM.
353 AM EDT Fri Jun 14 2019 Building high pressure will bring dry conditions today. Nwly flow aloft will become zonal on Sat as the base of a Hudson Bay upper low flattens.
We should see a more distinct SE flow develop by Fri afternoon, but moisture is expected to be slow to return given the lower dewpoints over the coastal waters.
As this boundary sinks down the Florida peninsula and dissipates across Central Florida today, high pressure will begin building to our north.
Still enough southwest ridging to provide calm winds and dewpoints in the upper 50s to mid 60s. By this afternoon, the high will move further east, along with low pressure further developing across the Central Plains. Thus, more humid afternoon highs in the lower 90s, and overnight lows in the mid to sometimes upper 70s expected.
124 AM EDT Fri Jun 14 2019 High pressure and drier air will continue building into the area overnight.
/issued 301 PM CDT Thu Jun 13 2019/ (Tonight and Friday) As the upper ridge axis to our west continues to weaken overnight, the flow aloft will become more zonal.
Winds in the lower levels are west and this would provide little to no sfc focus for storm development.
High pressure centered just to the south will keep central Indiana dry and mostly sunny for much of the day today. Clouds will increase in the late afternoon as the high gets a bit further east and time heights show mid level moisture arriving. Went a degree or two warmer than the initialization due to expected sunshine most of the day.
1052 PM CDT Thu Jun 13 2019 High pressure at the surface today making way for fair weather and very comfortable conditions at the surface. By Friday the mid level flow becomes a bit more zonal as the mid level trough that came through the area Thursday moves east and the trailing ridge also moves east with it.
322 AM CDT Fri Jun 14 2019 Scattered moist convection continues to develop ahead of a ~700 mb trough axis early this morning from northern to central OK. For today thru tonight, do not expect much convection over our area until late in the evening as it moves off the high plains. The highest chances will be over northern OK, although some thunderstorms could make it into western north TX/SW OK after sunset. Additional widespread precip is expected Sat night thru at least Wed morning as several mid to upper short wave troughs impact the region.
Downslope flow east of the high terrain should keep the eastern 1/2 of the CWA mainly dry. Winds will increase behind a cold front with gusts 20-30 mph by 12Z. Temps do rise on Fri, esp in the SE where the downslope will help them to get warmer than Thurs.
Tomorrow continues to look pleasant with temps a bit warmer.
Mostly sunny and breezy conditions will follow later today with highs in the lower to middle 70s.
Some breezy winds were persisting but these should lessen overnight while temperatures are expected to fall into the 50s with 40s in the higher elevations.
454 AM EDT Fri Jun 14 2019 Mostly sunny and breezy conditions for today with temperatures significantly warmer than yesterday.
/28/ Clear skies and a near calm wind the remainder of the night should allow for strong radiational cooling of our dry airmass and lead to cooler than normal temperatures, in the 50s at most locations by morning. The continued dry airmass will lead to efficient warming with the high sun angle. The forecast period will start off tomorrow night with zonal flow aloft across the lower CONUS and low- level sub-tropical ridging extending from the Bahamas into the northern Gulf of Mexico.
330 AM EDT Fri Jun 14 2019 The short term period will begin with the forecast area positioned on the back side of a longwave trough currently lifting away to the northeast.
A cold front currently over Alberta and Saskatchewan will move south across the forecast area this afternoon and evening. The trough will drift to eastern Saskatchewan late tonight which will diminish the chance for storms in the west.
1117 PM EDT Thu Jun 13 2019 West winds will increase tonight in the wake of a cold front exiting to the east.
1037 PM PDT Thu Jun 13 2019 Locally breezy and gusty conditions in the Columbia Basin will continue through Friday albeit with cooler temperatures.
Highs today will be warmer than yesterday with more 90s.
1051 PM CDT Thu Jun 13 2019 Temperatures are struggling to fall tonight, and with the low level jet increasing this eveing, expect the trend to continue. A 40 to 50 kt low level jet will develop across much of the area overnight, and will see winds pick up a bit, more so in the higher elevations. With continuing warm air advection, Friday will be an even warmer day with highs into the upper 70s to mid 80s.
839 PM PDT Thu Jun 13 2019 Locally breezy and gusty conditions in the Columbia Basin will continue through Friday albeit with cooler temperatures. a secondary cold front is crossing into Central WA and will sweep east this evening.
The trough continues to split as it move out of Utah with its southern component moving to northwest AZ.
The upper trough axis was situated across Pennsylvania stretching to North Carolina. Meanwhile, at the surface, high pressure will gradually shift eastward today off the coast of North Carolina.
249 AM CDT Fri Jun 14 2019 As an area of high pressure slides off to the east this morning, strong warm air advection will allow moisture to funnel into the region. Temperatures will begin a trend upwards with the return of the warmer and moist airmass to region. Expect highs in the upper 70s on Friday with plenty of dry time through the afternoon before another chance for rain returns to region by late Friday night as as a complex of showers and thunderstorms across the High Plains will slowly track towards the region.
256 AM CDT Fri Jun 14 2019 Early-morning water vapor imagery and 00z upper-air analysis depict a prominent mid-level trough over eastern North America with prevailing northwest flow present upstream from that feature, generally extending from the Pacific Northwest through the northern and central Plains. Latest short-term model guidance suggests that the convection should move to the east/southeast of our area by early afternoon with decreasing clouds allowing for temperatures to warm into the lower to mid 80s west with mainly upper 70s in southwest IA.
/Issued 831 PM EDT Thu Jun 13 2019/ Only minor adjustments made to temp/dewpt trends this evening, otherwise forecast on track to have a quiet ridge dominated reprieve to the area. High pressure will build over the area overnight and Friday.
This will lead to another day of pleasant conditions with highs expected to be a little warmer in the mid to upper 80s and potentially a few sites reaching around 90 degrees. This will also mean that overnight lows will be warmer than we have seen as well, with readings in the mid 60s and potentially lower 70s in the west.
As high pressure slides to the east, our southerly fetch will resume and moisture will begin to work into the area on Saturday.
513 AM MDT Fri Jun 14 2019 Current upper level analysis has weak ridging across the western CONUS, with sharp trof across the eastern CONUS. Several weak disturbances are crossing the western ridge at the moment. Behind the cold front, highs Saturday will range from near 70 across northeastern WY and the Black Hills, to around 80 across south central SD.
/Issued 330 AM EDT Fri Jun 14 2019/ The short term period will begin with the forecast area positioned on the back side of a longwave trough currently lifting away to the northeast. By this evening, the high pressure center should be to the east of our area as it makes its move towards the Atlantic coast. Dewpoints in the 40s and 50s this afternoon will climb to the low 60s by Saturday afternoon.
CAPE ranges between 3500-2500j/kg, with the NAM on the high end, and the GFS at the lower range, with GEFS traces between those two ranges, with highest amounts east of the James valley.
623 AM EDT Fri Jun 14 2019 High pressure along with drier air and mostly clear skies will be over the region through tonight then move offshore on Saturday.
Have an area of ongoing elevated showers/storms moving into the lower James River Valley as of 08Z, which developed as low level jet increased into our far southwest CWA around 04Z-05Z. With lack of precipitation and partly to mostly sunny skies, have favored temperatures toward the higher end of guidance, with highs from near 80 in our southeast to near 90 in the far west. With temperatures warming into the lower-mid 80s ahead of the rain, and dew points into the lower 60s, see afternoon MLCAPE values exceed 2000J/kg. Deep shear remains rather meager, but instability and lift from the approaching wave, along with a favorable freezing level, may be able to overcome this deficit and produce severe hail from the stronger storms.
/issued 322 AM CDT Fri Jun 14 2019/ Scattered moist convection continues to develop ahead of a ~700 mb trough axis early this morning from northern to central OK. For today thru tonight, do not expect much convection over our area until late in the evening as it moves off the high plains. The highest chances will be over northern OK, although some thunderstorms could make it into western north TX/SW OK after sunset. Additional widespread precip is expected Sat night thru at least Wed morning as several mid to upper short wave troughs impact the region.
1030 AM EDT Fri Jun 14 2019 High pressure will build through tonight and move offshore Saturday.
High pressure centered just to the south will keep central Indiana dry and mostly sunny for much of the day today. Clouds will increase in the late afternoon as the high gets a bit further east and time heights show mid level moisture arriving. Went a degree or two warmer than the initialization due to expected sunshine most of the day. Also this flow around the back side of the high will bring a good fetch of Gulf moisture up into the area.
High pressure over the Southeast will build to the coast of the Carolinas by this evening, with northeasterly onshore flow increasing today. Northerly winds this morning will become northeasterly and increase to 10-15 knots with higher gusts by the afternoon as high pressure builds to the north. SCEC conditions today with winds 15-20 knots as high pressure builds to the north behind a weak frontal passage.
High pressure will provide light winds and clear skies.
Cold front to push south and east across the forecast area tonight into Saturday morning.
We will remain in a quiet weather pattern today with high pressure in control. Chattanooga Airport, TN 81 60 86 67 / 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 79 59 85 66 / 0 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 79 57 85 66 / 0 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 76 53 83 61 / 0 0 0 0.
A mesoscale convective system associated with this trough was moving southeast, but will likely dissipate before reaching our northern counties. The 850 mb thermal ridge will strengthen as well, leading to highs today a little warmer than yesterday (upper 80s/low 90s). Otherwise, tonight should be dry, with lows only down to the low 70s.
1059 AM EDT Fri Jun 14 2019 High pressure will continue across the area today. /Issued 330 AM EDT Fri Jun 14 2019/ The short term period will begin with the forecast area positioned on the back side of a longwave trough currently lifting away to the northeast. By this evening, the high pressure center should be to the east of our area as it makes its move towards the Atlantic coast. Dewpoints in the 40s and 50s this afternoon will climb to the low 60s by Saturday afternoon.
Above normal rain chances will remain in place this afternoon as rainfall production will initialize with mesoscale cloud lines along the Lower Keys.
321 AM PDT Fri Jun 14 2019 A weak trough of low pressure aloft and stronger onshore flow will continue to spread cooling inland today with stronger and gusty west winds in the mountains and deserts.
331 AM MDT Fri Jun 14 2019 Current upper level analysis has weak ridging across the western CONUS, with sharp trof across the eastern CONUS. Several weak disturbances are crossing the western ridge at the moment. Behind the cold front, highs Saturday will range from near 70 across northeastern WY and the Black Hills, to around 80 across south central SD.
Downslope flow east of the high terrain will keep the Susquehanna Valley dry. Max temps will be warmer than yesterday, but still average 5 to 10 degrees below normal. Expect shower and t-storm activity to ramp up over Father's Day weekend across Central PA as warmer and more humid air returns to the Keystone State. The pattern will feature a surge of high PW air advecting eastward from the OH Valley, to the south of a surface cold front moving through the Great Lakes.
Strong heating will take place today downstream of broad western CONUS troughing and this should allow the dryline to mix to near the I-27/US-87 Corridor by peak heating.
507 AM MDT Fri Jun 14 2019 Overnight WV/IR loop revealed mid/upper level troughing over the western 2/3 of the CONUS. A couple of mid/upper level troughs will migrate eastward from the Intermountain West across the Rockies and High Plains.
Upper air analysis this morning shows a long-wave upper trof axis positioned from the eastern Great Lakes southward over the southeast US. Today, the upper trof pivots northeastward off the northeast US coast while the upper flow begins to flatten over the central Gulf coast.
655 AM EDT Fri Jun 14 2019 Mostly sunny and breezy conditions for today with temperatures significantly warmer than yesterday.
652 AM CDT Fri Jun 14 2019 As an area of high pressure slides off to the east this morning, strong warm air advection will allow moisture to funnel into the region. Temperatures will begin a trend upwards with the return of the warmer and moist airmass to region. Expect highs in the upper 70s on Friday with plenty of dry time through the afternoon before another chance for rain returns to region by late Friday night as as a complex of showers and thunderstorms across the High Plains will slowly track towards the region.
1004 AM EDT Fri Jun 14 2019 High pressure to our south will move off the coast on Sat. Downslope flow east of the high terrain will make the SE warmer than the rest of the area. Max temps will be warmer than yesterday, but still average 5 to 10 degrees below normal. Expect shower and t-storm activity to ramp up over Father's Day weekend across Central PA as warmer and more humid air returns to the Keystone State. The pattern will feature a surge of high PW air advecting eastward from the OH Valley, to the south of a surface cold front moving through the Great Lakes.
Downslope flow east of the high terrain will keep the Susquehanna Valley dry. Max temps will be a few to several degrees warmer than yesterday. Expect shower and t-storm activity to ramp up over Father's Day weekend across parts of Central PA as warmer and more humid air returns to the Keystone State. The pattern will feature a surge of high PW air advecting eastward from the OH Valley, to the south of a surface cold front moving through the Great Lakes.
705 AM CDT Fri Jun 14 2019 Early-morning water vapor imagery and 00z upper-air analysis depict a prominent mid-level trough over eastern North America with prevailing northwest flow present upstream from that feature, generally extending from the Pacific Northwest through the northern and central Plains. Latest short-term model guidance suggests that the convection should move to the east/southeast of our area by early afternoon with decreasing clouds allowing for temperatures to warm into the lower to mid 80s west with mainly upper 70s in southwest IA.
1037 AM EDT Fri Jun 14 2019 Building high pressure will bring dry conditions today. Nwly flow aloft will become zonal on Sat as the base of a Hudson Bay upper low flattens.
There are already showers and thunderstorms ahead of this trough over Kansas and Nebraska that will continue to move east throughout the day. The widespread showers and thunderstorms will continue into Saturday morning, particularly over eastern Missouri and west central and southwest Illinois as the low level jet begins to veer.
Cooler temperatures remain in place this weekend with a well-defined marine layer hugging the coastline.
While surface ridging remains an influence across the area and given the dry air aloft, noted by the 14/00z KLZK sounding, much of this activity will struggle to make it into the state. Through the period surface ridging will continue to move east away from the area and the pattern aloft will become more zonal.
705 AM CDT Fri Jun 14 2019 High pressure will continue to control the weather across central Illinois this morning. As the high shifts into the Appalachians, winds will increase and gust 25-30mph this afternoon. Low-level jet energy will increase markedly tonight as the pressure gradient tightens between the departing high and a cold front across the Plains. Showers and thunderstorms will be ongoing early Saturday morning before the low-level jet weakens and the bulk of the activity shifts into Indiana by midday. Only scattered convection is expected in the wake of the morning precip, with attention turning to areas west of the Mississippi River ahead of an approaching cold front where instability/shear parameters suggest the potential for strong to severe storms late Saturday afternoon.
342 AM MDT Fri Jun 14 2019 Overnight WV/IR loop revealed mid/upper level troughing over the western 2/3 of the CONUS. A couple of mid/upper level troughs will migrate eastward from the Intermountain West across the Rockies and High Plains.
Northwest flow aloft will be present over western Montana and central Idaho today and Saturday, which will bring slightly cooler temperatures and over all lower chances of showers and thunderstorms.
951 AM CDT Fri Jun 14 2019 This morning, non-severe elevated thunderstorms continued through western North Dakota, aided by a weak 850mb trough. Several boundaries will be in place with a warm front in central North dakota in the afternoon with a following cold front by evening. Thursdays highs were warmer than most guidance. So for today used the European mean mos guidance which was about 5 degrees warmer than the NBM.
A stronger upper low moving east across southern Canada will support a 50 knot low level jet that will be aimed at Northern Lower.