Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Wrap around moisture associated with the upper level low advancing east along the Red River between Texas and Oklahoma led to low cloud cover to linger through much of the morning hours and into the early afternoon across portions of the Hill Country and the northeastern I- 35 corridor. With the stiff moderate north breezes, expect wind chills regardless of reaching freezing temperatures or not are expected to fall into the 20s to low 30s for most.
1150 AM CST Sun Nov 29 2020 (Today and tonight) Early this morning, an upper low was approaching the southwestern corner of Oklahoma from the Texas Panhandle. The upper low will move east-southeast across far southern Oklahoma today, reaching the Ark-La-Tex by mid-to-late afternoon. A northern stream trough digging into the Midwest will send a cold front south across our area this afternoon. Temperatures will remain cool today with highs this afternoon mostly in the lower to mid 50s.
High pressure at the sfc will build into the region through Monday, with generally dry and relatively mild conditions. Aloft a mid-level trof will advect across the area this morning, with ridging aloft over the Rockies expected to expand east into the Northern Plains tnt and Monday.
This low pressure system begins to move inland Monday morning as upper ridge axis passes through southeast Wyoming late morning.
After dissipation, high clouds will continue to stream over east central FL, allowing for the sun to warm up the area to the lower 80s. Forecast remains on track for the arrival of a strong cold front starting on early Monday morning. A cold front will push through late overnight through Monday.
1051 AM CST Sun Nov 29 2020 A cold front continues to push through the forecast area early this morning. Temperatures will struggle to climb much above freezing, with wind chills in the teens to 20s. Trended towards the lower guidance values.
329 PM EST Sun Nov 29 2020 A cold front will be pushing through the area starting late tonight through Monday, bringing a strong line of showers and thunderstorms with it.
As the high pressure moves over our area tonight, winds will become nearly calm later tonight. The high slides to the east on Monday with a southerly flow returning on the backside of the high. This will be felt most in our west as warm air advection will boost highs into the lower to mid 40s.
An upper-level composite analysis this morning reveals a deep layer mean anticyclone centered just south of the Florida Keys, centered near the southern coast of Cuba. The base of the inversion was located close to 6000 feet above ground where persistent patches of stratocumulus clouds have been forming and migrating northwestward, occasionally bringing ceilings and even very light rain/sprinkles to mainly the lower and middle Keys and adjacent waters. In the short term, developing low pressure system along the northern Gulf coast will move northeastward with a trailing cold front migrating rapidly southeastward off the continent. For this afternoon, skies should turn mostly sunny over most of the service area with air temperatures increasing a few more degrees and topping out in the lower 80s.
I was just looking at Wind Chills tomorrow and while yes, we are expecting this mix of rain and snow during the day tomorrow as the cold rushes in here, Wind Chills in the low 20s are going to be commonplace.
An upper level low pressure center is currently tracking along the Red River which is providing the area with scattered light rain showers. A cold front will move through the region this afternoon bringing clearing skies, gusty northerly winds, and cooling temperatures for this afternoon and evening.
213 PM CST Sun Nov 29 2020 Post cold frontal air mass currently over the region will linger breezy northwest winds as well as clouds and flurries within Minnesota until around sunset. Temps remain cooler in the 20s for Minnesota locations like LOW.
Early afternoon satellite and surface obs showed northwest winds and clearing skies across the region as a narrow ridge of high pressure was building over the Upper Midwest. On Monday this ridge of high pressure will remain in place and bring mostly sunny skies with light winds. The ridge of high pressure will stall across the region as an upper level cutoff low forms along the eastern spine of the Rockies.
211 PM CST Sun Nov 29 2020 Ongoing light showers across far E OK / NW AR will end by late afternoon as the upper low pulls further eastward. Cold front currently near I-44 corridor through NE OK will bring notably cooler temps to the region with below normal temps tonight through Monday night.
1043 AM MST Sun Nov 29 2020 Overall mild flow pattern will persist through most of the period, supporting mostly above normal temps and mainly dry weather, as a mean western NOAM ridge generally remains in place.
/Tonight through Sunday/ A cold front pushed across the state this morning, bringing blustery northwest winds with it. Winds will diminish some this evening with the trough axis passing over the state and the pressure gradient relaxing, but winds will remain brisk.
A cold front has resulted in gusty north winds across the area which will continue through the afternoon. As an upper low, currently located over CDS, departs to the east, robust surface pressure rises will occur in the Panhandles, with guidance now pointing at rises on the order of 1 to 2 mb/hr. Have leaned toward the higher end of consensus blends during the late mid to late morning hours, when surface pressure rises are progged to maximize.
An upper level ridge is strengthening over the region today with continued dry conditions. A weak cold front will move into the region on Monday afternoon, bringing snow showers to mainly the mountains.
A cold front has moved across nern CO, early this morning, with gusty north winds behind it. Monday will likely be the warmest day of the week as a brief period of mid-level ridging builds in. Surface temperatures should reach the low to mid 50s for much of the plains, despite the presence of an inversion a few hundred feet above ground level.
1147 AM CST Sun Nov 29 2020 (Today and tonight) The upper low spinning over western Oklahoma early this morning will continue to drift east today. This afternoon, a strong cold front will sweep in from the northwest, bringing much drier, cooler, and windy conditions behind it. In addition to bringing the cooler and windy conditions, the front will also bring a definitive end to the precipitation.
1134 AM CST Sun Nov 29 2020 Upper low will continue to track eastward across the southern Plains today. The surface cold front associated with the northern stream upper trof moving across the northern Plains/Upper Midwest will also drop south across the area today.
GAH MORNING DISCUSSION: Upper ridging over the western U.
Aloft, water vapor imagery and upper air analysis places a compact upper level low drifting across Oklahoma at 14Z with increasing divergent flow aloft across the southeast CONUS. Further north, a positively tilted trough is shifting southeast across the northern plains. At the surface a cyclone is developing along the Gulf Coast underneath increasing divergence aloft. Nonetheless, a southeast 35-40 knot flow would still support increasing winds across the higher terrain with gusts in excess of 40 mph. Diegan Chattanooga Airport, TN 43 45 27 42 25 / 100 50 20 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 44 46 28 38 23 / 90 80 60 10 0 Oak Ridge, TN 44 45 28 39 23 / 90 80 40 10 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 45 49 28 35 22 / 90 90 70 20 0 TN.
Upper level ridge pushes east into the Northern Plains on Monday, as a vigorous mid level S/WV trough develops into the Pacific Northwest. Warmer air overspreads the region, with highs in the 40s most locations. Those areas seeing better mixing may see highs in the lower 50s, especially southwest. Models in good agreement with an upper level trough/low developing into the Northern Plains Mon night through Tue night. This feature will drive a decent cold front across the area, with gusty winds, colder temperatures, and a chance for some light snow or flurries.
525 PM CST Sun Nov 29 2020 The Northland was situated between departing low pressure near Sault Sainte Marie, MI and building high pressure over the Northern Plains. The upper-level trough which is supporting the light snow and strong winds over the region today will phase with a southern stream low pressure system and deepen into a cutoff low over the Ohio River Valley on Monday night and is forecast to lift into New England and the eastern Great Lakes by midweek. The evolution of that trough will produce a blocking pattern with ridging over the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest while another trough digs into the central Rockies.
354 PM CST Sun Nov 29 2020 The upper low that brought all the excitement (and moisture) yesterday is now accelerating eastward across the Arklatex, leaving much drier northwesterly flow aloft to dominate the southern High Plains the next 24 to 36 hours. In the wake of the system, a cold front has plunged through the region today, complete with gusty northerly post-frontal winds. These winds, in combination with the dry air and full insolation, will allow temperatures to rebound into the lower and middle 50s Monday afternoon.
At the surface, cold front has moved through KS with strong north winds overspreading the area. By Mon morning, deep upper trough will extend from the Western Great Lakes region to the Mid Mississippi Valley leaving strong northwest flow in place across the Plains.
Very dry air in the lower atmosphere will move across the region during this period. Temps in the mtn levels will be warmer than last night as warm air starts to move into the high country (temps in the mtns will likely be warmer than the valley floors). For tomorrow, the low level cold air will be pushed east as southwesterly flow in the lower atmosphere develops, and expect max temps to recover into teh mid 50s most of the plains with 40s in the valleys.
Winds become a little breezy tomorrow before a cold front brings the chance of very light showers to the Jarbidge area.
450 PM MST Sun Nov 29 2020 Current surface map places high pressure across western South Dakota.
/issued 246 PM CST Sun Nov 29 2020/ The dense fog from earlier this morning has cleared out of the area due to a cold front moving in from the north. The departing upper low which brought us rain yesterday will join up with a deeper trof over the Upper Midwest. We are still expecting a bitter cold morning with lows in the low to mid 20s. Highs tomorrow will top out 10 to 15 degrees below normal in the lower 50s.
High pressure's light winds/clear skies will promote low temperatures tonight in the upper single digits to lower teens.
with winds gradually diminishing Monday afternoon and especially Monday night as ridge of high pressure builds in and winds slacken. A Freeze Watch has been issued given the potential for freezing temperatures for all but coastal counties.
416 PM CST Sun Nov 29 2020 This Afternoon through Tomorrow: Early afternoon water vapor imagery shows the upper-level low pressure system is currently pivoting across the ArkLaTex, with abundant moisture being advected northward to its east. Then as the cold front associated with a northern low moves in from the northwest, drier boundary layer air should cut off chances for light rain or drizzle.
A closed upper-level system of low pressure over the Gulf of Alaska is sending Pacific moisture up and over a ridge of high pressure centered over the western U. This system will reach the Northern Rockies by Monday afternoon, accompanied by a cold front and jet streak aloft.
/issued 209 PM CST Sun Nov 29 2020/ SHORT TERM (Now through Monday Night): High pressure spilling south from northern locations will settle over the area in the short term. Cooler weather will prevail.
A cold front has moved through the CWA today bringing blustery NW winds gusting up to around 40 MPH at times. Monday night, high pressure will provide the area with light NW winds and clear skies.
539 PM CST Sun Nov 29 2020 (This evening through Monday) Only a few mid level echoes remain on the back side of the mid to upper trough this afternoon over NE OK. The cold front will continue to surge southward tonight as a secondary trough digs into the lower midwest.
/issued 354 PM CST Sun Nov 29 2020/ The upper low that brought all the excitement (and moisture) yesterday is now accelerating eastward across the Arklatex, leaving much drier northwesterly flow aloft to dominate the southern High Plains the next 24 to 36 hours. In the wake of the system, a cold front has plunged through the region today, complete with gusty northerly post-frontal winds. These winds, in combination with the dry air and full insolation, will allow temperatures to rebound into the lower and middle 50s Monday afternoon.
211 PM MST Sun Nov 29 2020 Dry weather and high clouds over the region as an progressive short lived upper level ridge is moving into western Montana. Ridge axis reaches eastern Montana overnight and behind it a stream of unsettled air begins moving into the region Monday.
The second comes midweek as an upper low presents the next chance of wintry weather. The Western US upper ridge expands onto the Plains as its axis roughly lines up with the divide. With afternoon dew points generally being in the single digits today, ended up siding with the cooler guidance (MAV and MET) for a range of single digits for lows in the Platte River Valley to lower/mid teens north central. The upper ridge continues east as an H85 thermal ridge advances on the CWA. Guidance is fairly similar with max temps, but did err toward the warmer end. Winds do increase a bit Monday night behind the H85 thermal ridge when flow switches to northwest.
(This evening through Monday) Only a few mid level echoes remain on the back side of the mid to upper trough this afternoon over NE OK. The cold front will continue to surge southward tonight as a secondary trough digs into the lower midwest.
The ridge axis will slide over the area tonight, maintaining the clear skies and seasonal temperatures we've been seeing. The ridge will begin to weaken and slide off to the east Monday night, as an upper level trough digs into the Pacific Northwest. Mid and upper level clouds will then start to increase, leading lows being a degree or two warmer than we've seen the last few days.
Latest surface analysis places a 1008mb low pressure system over New Orleans, Louisiana, with a cold front extending from Alpena, Michigan southwest into Chicago and back through St. A broad rainshield extends northeast of the low affecting much of the Lower Mississippi Valley. Another trough will swing down across the Mississippi Valley and squeeze out any remaining moisture over the Tennessee Valley.
Dry and stable high pressure aloft will track east across the forecast area through tonight.
Colder air is ushering into the area with lows tonight in the low to mid 20s and wind chills in the teens late tonight into Monday morning.
The aforementioned low will continue along its present track into the Appalachians later tonight, and this will result in a tightening pressure gradient on the back side of the low and also plenty of wrap-around moisture to go along with the cold advection. The latest HRRR shows most of tonight's precipitation exiting the mid state by 12Z, after which light echoes resulting from the wrap-around moisture and closed upper low will begin to fill in across Middle Tennessee.
Post cold frontal air mass currently over the region will linger breezy northwest winds as well as clouds and flurries within Minnesota until around sunset. Temps remain cooler in the 20s for Minnesota locations like LOW.
Cloud coverage wrapping around the low will continue to result in mostly MVFR CIGS for the next several hours. /issued 315 PM CST Sun Nov 29 2020/ Mid-afternoon sfc analysis shows the area of low pressure now over sern LA with an elevated nrly low-level flow now in place over the entire forecast area. Satellite imagery shows that drier air steadily scouring out the low cloud shield with plenty of breaks in the overcast, especially over swrn LA/coastal sern TX.
247 PM PST Sun Nov 29 2020 A dry cold front will move through northeast California and western Nevada Monday and Monday night.
/Issued 211 PM CST Sun Nov 29 2020/ Ongoing light showers across far E OK / NW AR will end by late afternoon as the upper low pulls further eastward. Cold front currently near I-44 corridor through NE OK will bring notably cooler temps to the region with below normal temps tonight through Monday night.
/28/ This Afternoon through Tomorrow: Early afternoon water vapor imagery shows the upper-level low pressure system is currently pivoting across the ArkLaTex, with abundant moisture being advected northward to its east. Then as the cold front associated with a northern low moves in from the northwest, drier boundary layer air should cut off chances for light rain or drizzle.
A recent surface analysis shows the cold front that passed through the area this morning currently stretching from the lower Texas Panhandle northeastward to a center of low pressure located north of Lake Huron. High pressure is building in from the northwest, while another center of low pressure is located over far southeast Louisiana. These two features are expected to merge and form and impressive cyclone that will impact the eastern CONUS.
The 19Z MSAS surface analysis showed a weak area of low pressure situated over eastern Lake Superior with a cold front extended southwest over Lake MI into central IL. Favorable trajectories, CAA and delta-T values in the mid teens should bring an inch or two of snow accumulation to Vilas County this evening with up to an additional inch after midnight due to the trough exiting and winds becoming more north. The lake effect snow showers/flurries will persist into Monday across north-central WI, but gradually diminish through the day as winds become north-northeast and drier air begins to work into the region from high pressure over the mid-MS Valley.
818 PM EST Sun Nov 29 2020 An area of low pressure is currently along the north central Gulf coast with a trailing cold front extending south over the central Gulf of Mexico. A band of showers and thunderstorms is developing over the central Gulf ahead of the cold front which is being enhanced by the warm waters of the loop current. The cold front will push east tonight with the band of showers and thunderstorms moving across the nature coast between about 4 to 6 AM.
315 PM CST Sun Nov 29 2020 Mid-afternoon sfc analysis shows the area of low pressure now over sern LA with an elevated nrly low-level flow now in place over the entire forecast area. Satellite imagery shows that drier air steadily scouring out the low cloud shield with plenty of breaks in the overcast, especially over swrn LA/coastal sern TX.
729 PM EST Sun Nov 29 2020 Rain will continue through tonight as a warm front moves northward across the area early tonight followed by a cold front around daybreak. Drier air and increased winds expected Monday behind the cold front.
513 PM CST Sun Nov 29 2020 (This evening through Monday) Stratus behind a cold front was holding down temperatures in the mid 40s to lower 50s this afternoon.
1131 PM CST Sun Nov 29 2020 The Northland was situated between departing low pressure near Sault Sainte Marie, MI and building high pressure over the Northern Plains. The upper-level trough which is supporting the light snow and strong winds over the region today will phase with a southern stream low pressure system and deepen into a cutoff low over the Ohio River Valley on Monday night and is forecast to lift into New England and the eastern Great Lakes by midweek. The evolution of that trough will produce a blocking pattern with ridging over the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest while another trough digs into the central Rockies.
1057 PM CST Sun Nov 29 2020 (This evening through Monday) Only a few mid level echoes remain on the back side of the mid to upper trough this afternoon over NE OK. The cold front will continue to surge southward tonight as a secondary trough digs into the lower midwest.
CDG Chattanooga Airport, TN 40 44 26 41 25 / 90 30 10 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 42 45 26 38 22 / 90 80 50 10 0 Oak Ridge, TN 41 44 26 38 22 / 80 60 50 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 46 49 25 33 20 / 90 80 50 30 0 TN.
126 AM MST Mon Nov 30 2020 Overall mild flow pattern will persist through most of the period, supporting mostly above normal temps and mainly dry weather, as a mean western NOAM ridge generally remains in place.
Surge of high pressure kicked winds up a bit this evening briefly, but winds have already started showing signs of decoupling again.
Surface analysis depicts a cold front extending southward from low pressure over southern Alabama through the central Gulf of Mexico. Overnight, the dry and stable airmass in place will continue to prevent any shower activity from developing, with the advancing cold front still located about 200 miles northwest of Key West by morning. A cold front remains on track to move through the area Monday evening, with strong north winds in its wake, likely requiring Small Craft Advisories for all waters. Shower chances will increase during the mid/late afternoon hours, ahead of an approaching cold front, and MVFR or IFR impacts will become increasingly likely by late afternoon or early evening.
The cold front which was in the region last night is now moving across north Mississippi. An upper level trough will sweep across the region this morning. Some light precipitation may develop later this morning as the trough moves through with the most likely area being far eastern sections of the Mid- South.
1048 PM CST Sun Nov 29 2020 (This evening through Monday) Stratus behind a cold front was holding down temperatures in the mid 40s to lower 50s this afternoon.
First, temperatures are trending cooler across much of central North Dakota, where the winds have been light. So we lowered the min temperatures quite a bit, down to the single digits across portions of the the south central to the lower teens north central. Upper level ridge pushes east into the Northern Plains on Monday, as a vigorous mid level S/WV trough develops into the Pacific Northwest. Warmer air overspreads the region, with highs in the 40s most locations. Those areas seeing better mixing may see highs in the lower 50s, especially southwest. Models in good agreement with an upper level trough/low developing into the Northern Plains Mon night through Tue night. This feature will drive a decent cold front across the area, with gusty winds, colder temperatures, and a chance for some light snow or flurries.
149 AM MST Mon Nov 30 2020 Upper ridge will move through Eastern Montana today with warm temperatures and mostly clear skies. The ridge moves to the east this evening and an upper trough/low moves into the region tonight with a cold front.
The axis of an upper level trough of low pressure axis was directly over the Ozarks this morning, and will continue to advance east of the region today, bringing a deeper continental dry airmass into the area. We're looking at plenty of sunshine today on the inflection of the passing trough, with highs ranging from the middle 30s in the central Missouri, to the middle 40s in far southwest Missouri. Lows tonight will fall into the teens over the eastern Ozarks, to the low to mid 20s in the western Ozarks.
950 PM MST Sun Nov 29 2020 Current surface map places high pressure across western South Dakota.
950 PM CST Sun Nov 29 2020 Current observations and satellite imagery shows a cold front just to our west, but will approach eastern Arkansas soon. Otherwise, temperatures are dropping slowly to the lower 40s to upper 30s with lows tonight approaching freezing in most areas. Latest surface analysis places a 1008mb low pressure system over New Orleans, Louisiana, with a cold front extending from Alpena, Michigan southwest into Chicago and back through St. A broad rainshield extends northeast of the low affecting much of the Lower Mississippi Valley. Another trough will swing down across the Mississippi Valley and squeeze out any remaining moisture over the Tennessee Valley.