Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
426 AM PDT MON MAY 18 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT AND BRING A CHANCE OF SPRINKLES AND LIGHT RAIN OVER THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY. EXCEPT FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SIERRA NEVADA. SEVERAL VORTICITY CENTERS CONTINUE TO ROTATE THROUGH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED ALONG THE US WEST COAST.
RADAR ECHOES HAVE REALLY DROPPED OFF OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS AS LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES MOVING AWAY FROM THE REGION. THE ECHOES THAT ARE SHOWING UP ARE IN THE FORM OF SNOW AS TEMPS HAVE FALLEN INTO THE LOW AND MID 30S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE REGION BY 12Z TUESDAY WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT.
THIS IS DUE TO THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
THOUGH A CU FIELD IS DEVELOPING OVER THE LOWER VALLEY AS MDT TO BREEZY SOUTHEAST WINDS PREVAIL. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF INTERACTING WITH LOWER PRESSURE INLAND WILL MAINTAIN SOUTHEAST WINDS OVER THE AREA. UPPER LEVEL LOW ENTERING NORTHERN CA WILL CONTINUE ITS TRACK EAST/NORTHEAST OVER THE GREAT BASIN MONDAY WHILE WEAK RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS WILL BRING SLIGHT DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA WHILE THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAIN NEAR THE SIERRA MADRE WHERE THE CONVECTION WILL BE CONCENTRATED DURING THE DAY. AS THE LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST. GRADIENT WILL STRENGTHEN INCREASING SE WINDS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE INTERACTS WITH LEE TROUGH ALONG THE SIERRA MADRE.
A WEAK RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE THE WEATHER SYSTEM THAT PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER THE WEEKEND. THE BIGGER WEATHER CONCERN IS GOING TO BE THE NEAR RECORD LOWS MONDAY MORNING AND TUESDAY MORNING AS TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO DROP NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING AT MANY LOCATIONS.
617 AM CDT MON MAY 18 2015 COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH MID WEEK AND OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN MOVING IN AS EARLY AS TUESDAY AFTERNOON ARE THE MAIN POINTS OF THE FORECAST. UPPER LOW THAT BROUGHT RAIN/THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA THIS WEEKEND WAS LIFTING NORTHEAST THROUGH NORTHERN MINNESOTA THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING INTO THE REGION TONIGHT WILL BRING DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING REGIME TO AT LEAST NORTHEAST NEBRASKA WHERE DRIEST AIR AND LIGHTEST WINDS WILL ALLOW LOWS TO DROP INTO THE MIDDLE 30S. THOSE MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL PROCEED ANOTHER UPPER LOW/TROUGH INTO THE PLAINS AT MID WEEK. TROUGH ALONG CALIFORNIA COAST THIS MORNING IS NOT QUITE AS DEEP AS FORECAST 24 HOURS AGO.
1142 AM CDT MON MAY 18 2015 FOR 18Z TAFS /ISSUED 1048 AM CDT MON MAY 18 2015/ A MCV HAS DEVELOPED FROM THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND IS CURRENTLY MOVING INTO NORTH ALABAMA. CURRENT OBS SHOW TEMPS IN THE MID 70S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S/UPPER 60S. TO BECOME WARMER AND BECOME MORE UNSTABLE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING CONVECTION. A COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE EARLY TUESDAY SHIFTING WINDS TO A NW-NRLY DIRECTION.
ABUNDANT MOISTURE LINGERS ACROSS THE REGION WITH A LARGE UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR RENO. PRIMARILY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. AND IS EXPECTED TO RETREAT NE AS A WARM FRONT.
1121 AM EDT MON MAY 18 2015 AN UPPER-LEVEL COMPOSITE ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWS A DEEP ANTICYCLONE IN THE PROCESS OF WEAKENING OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. A HIGH PRESSURE CELL OVER THE WESTERN SUBTROPICAL NORTH ATLANTIC THIS AFTERNOON WILL WEAKEN GRADUALLY AS IT MOVES SOUTHWARD THROUGH TONIGHT.
402 AM PDT Mon May 18 2015 Variable clouds and mainly mountain showers and afternoon thunderstorms through the week as a series of weak low pressure systems move across California. Mostly cloudy skies cover much of the interior of NorCal early this morning as the latest in a series of low pressure systems moves over central California. Very little day-to-day change in the weather is expected across the region this week as several more weak systems move into the large-scale trough over the west continuing the active pattern of mainly afternoon and evening mountain showers and thunderstorms.
ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. MPJ /ISSUED 545 AM MDT MON MAY 18 2015/ A WEAK RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE THE WEATHER SYSTEM THAT PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER THE WEEKEND. THE BIGGER WEATHER CONCERN IS GOING TO BE THE NEAR RECORD LOWS MONDAY MORNING AND TUESDAY MORNING AS TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO DROP NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING AT MANY LOCATIONS.
SHOWERS AND STRAY TSRA LIKELY TO AFFECT TRI THIS EVENING AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 81 67 82 62 / 70 50 40 10 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 80 64 81 60 / 70 50 30 10 OAK RIDGE, TN 80 65 81 59 / 70 50 40 10 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 79 63 80 55 / 70 60 30 10.
A SERIES OF UPPER LOWS WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO MAINLY THE INTERIOR EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE WEEK. BROAD UPPER LOW IS PRESENTLY CENTERED OVER N CENTRAL CA WITH VORTICITY MAXIMA MOVING N-NW OVER THE LOCAL AREA. THE UPPER LOW TO OUR S WILL GRADUALLY FILL INTO MID-WEEK. LEAVING A BAGGY TROF OVER THE AREA. ANOTHER UPPER LOW WILL DEVELOP OFFSHORE THE N OR CENTRAL CA COAST BY WED. NW CA WILL REMAIN WITHIN A LONG WAVE TROUGH PATTERN THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK. THE UPPER LOW WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE W COAST TROF BY FRI AS IT DEEPENS. A SW-NE ALTHO MODELS VARY ON THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE.
AND RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE UNTIL PASSAGE OF A TUESDAY MORNING COLD FRONT. AS PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH SHIFTS EAST MONDAY EVENING IT WILL TAKE MOST OF THE DEEP MOISTURE WITH IT. DEW POINTS WILL REMAIN A BIT ELEVATED UNTIL FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASS TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
SHORT TERM: (Through Late This Afternoon) A trailing cold front will slowly progress through the CWA today. The slow southeastward motion of the front means that the cooler post-frontal air mass will only affect daytime high temperatures for approximately the northwestern one-third of the CWA. The rest of the forecast area should see temperatures similar to yesterday with highs reaching the low to mid 80s.
A RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER WEEK IS EXPECTED WITH HIGH PRESSURE MAINTAINING MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS AND MODERATING TEMPS THROUGH THE WEEK.
950 AM EDT MON MAY 18 2015 HIGH PRESSURE IS POSITIONED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. A WEAK COLD FRONT OVER PENNSYLVANIA WILL APPROACH THE MID ATLANTIC TODAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST TUESDAY. COOLER AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FROM THE MIDWEEK UNTIL THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND. A CD FNT XTNDG FM MN TO KS WILL MOVE INTO THE MID ATLC DURG THE 1ST HALF OF TUE GENERATING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEFORE COOLER AND DRIER AIR PUSHES INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. RETURN TO MORE SPRING-LIKE WX WED WITH MUCH DRIER/COOLER AIR MOVING INTO AREA.
LARGE UPPER LOW MOVING INTO CALIFORNIA TODAY. CLOUDS ROTATING AROUND THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE LOW INTO OREGON AND WASHINGTON. THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO NEVADA TUESDAY. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN U. THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE TO WRAP MOIST, UNSTABLE AIR INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
925 AM MST MON MAY 18 2015 LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL MOVE INLAND TODAY. YET ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM CALIFORNIA LATE IN THE WEEK ALTHOUGH THE PRIMARY IMPACTS WILL BE COOLER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER. MID MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. DO NOT WANT TO ENTIRELY REMOVE POPS GIVEN STRONG 250MB JET SUPPORT AND MODEST MERIDIONAL COMPONENT OF THE LOW LEVEL PRE-TROUGH WINDS. LOWER TROUGH HEIGHTS MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA DURING PEAK HEATING WILL KEEP LOCALES LIKE YUMA AND EL CENTRO SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN THEIR CITY COUNTERPARTS TO THE EAST. TEMPERATURES OUT ACROSS SOUTHEAST CA TO PEAK IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.
THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SE THROUGH THE STATE. CLOUDIER SKIES WILL MOVE INTO SE WI THIS EVENING AS THE COOLER AIR PUSHES IN. THIS IS DUE TO THE WRAP-AROUND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLIDING THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. HIGH LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. CLOUDS WILL LIKELY INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AS THE COOLER AIRMASS MOVES IN. CONSENSUS OF MOS AND LLVL RH PROGS SUGGEST A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUD COVER WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY PRESENCE OF THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH.
/ISSUED 406 AM CDT Mon May 18 2015/ Satellite and observations are showing low clouds and dewpoints in the upper 60s in the lower Trans Pecos beginning to surge northwestward into the Permian Basin this morning. This moisture will push up against the Guadalupe and Davis Mountains this afternoon where daytime heating and an appropriately timed weak upper trough will initiate convection. Tuesday will see another round of convection with increasing southwesterly flow ahead of an upper low over the Four Corners developing a dryline over the western Permian Basin.
634 AM CDT MON MAY 18 2015 ONLY UPDATE WAS TO INCLUDE PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTH. AS LOWER PART OF ATMOSPHERE IS WARMER THAN -10C INDICATING LIKELY SUPERCOOLED LIQUID ONLY. AS PRECIPITATION WRAPS AROUND THE UPPER LOW. THE COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE 50S ON TUESDAY.
900 AM PDT MON MAY 18 2015 A SERIES OF THREE WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL MOVE INLAND THROUGH CALIFORNIA THIS WEEK.
STORM COVERAGE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. 03Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND FRONT STRETCHED SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND FLATTEN OUT THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE THE PAST WEEK. THE COLD FRONT DOES LAG BEHIND AND CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. A PIECE OF AN UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER CA WILL MAKE ITS WAY EASTWARD ACROSS THE CONUS AT MIDWEEK. AND AS ANOTHER UPPER LOW DROPS SE TOWARD NEW ENGLAND. THE TWO WILL COMBINE TO BRING AN AMPLIFYING TROUGH TO THE EASTERN CONUS.
A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY DRAPED OVER THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE WILL DRIFT SOUTHWARD AND WILL CONTINUE TURNING WINDS NORTH THIS MORNING. THE NEXT CLOSED LOW IN THE SEEMINGLY ENDLESS SERIES WAS SITUATED NEAR THE CNTRL CA COAST EARLY THIS MORNING. A SFC COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVG SLOWLY ACROSS THE TX AND OK PNHDLS TODAY AND SETTLE SOUTH OF THE FCST AREA. A REINFORCING SURGE OF COOLER AIR LOOKS PLAUSIBLE LATE TUE NIGHT AND WED.
913 AM CDT MON MAY 18 2015 ADDED MENTION OF DRIZZLE TODAY AND POSSIBLY FREEZING DRIZZLE TO THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT. WINDY CONDITIONS AND SNOW SHOWERS WERE OCCURRING ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW OVER NORTH DAKOTA WHERE TEMPERATURES AROUND 30 HAD FALLEN FROM THE MID 50S OF YESTERDAY MORNING. THIS COLD LAYER WILL THICKEN TO ABOUT A 800 MB WITH A MUCH WARMER LAYER ALOFT TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TUESDAY.
A WARM FRONT WILL ENTER THE STATE TONIGHT AND MOVE SOUTH TO NORTH. AND THE COLD FRONT WILL ENTER WEST ARKANSAS AROUND NOON MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE PLAINS TONIGHT AND BRING A WARM FRONT ACROSS ARKANSAS LATE TONIGHT.
FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE ROCKIES. AND DOWNSTREAM OF THIS FEATURE A LOW PRESSURE CENTER HAS DEVELOPED IN EASTERN COLORADO. AS THIS LOW MOVES EASTWARD INTO KANSAS. PATCHY FREEZING FOG AND EVEN SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE. AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS NEARLY SATURATED AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING TONIGHT. THE LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.
IN THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES OVERNIGHT. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO TONIGHT. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE BAHAMAS WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD OVERNIGHT.
Sheltered spots may decouple enough to drop to freezing, especially where any significant snow cover remains, but the vast majority of the area should stay in the mid 30s or even warmer.
HIGH PRESSURE NOW IS NOW BEGINNING TO SLIDE TO THE EAST OF THE AREA AND WE WILL SEE WINDS BEGIN TO SHIFT AROUND TO A MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION OVERNIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING. WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE EXITING WE WILL ALSO SEE SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WORK IN FROM THE WEST AS WELL.
For Monday, a cold front will move south across the area during the afternoon. Highs will range from the upper 50s to lower 60s across the Big Country to the lower 70s across the Northwest Hill Country.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE NORTHEAST FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY FOR TONIGHT AND MONDAY.
335 PM PST SUN JAN 24 2016 THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP THE WEATHER FAIR AND ONLY SLIGHTLY WARMER ON MONDAY AS ANOTHER WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGH SLIDES SOUTH THROUGH THE STATE. A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL FOLLOW FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK WITH FAIR. AND WARMER DAYS.
637 PM EST SUN JAN 24 2016 DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS TO THE REGION MID WEEK WHICH MAY STALL ALONG THE COAST AND KEEP WEATHER UNSETTLED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. LOCAL RADIATION SCHEME DROPS TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID 20S AT COLUMBIA AND AUGUSTA AND A BLEND OF THE COOLER MAV AND WARMER MET GUIDANCE FALLS IN LINE WITH THIS LOCAL SCHEME. SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS MOVES ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES AND PROVIDES A STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. MODIFYING AIR MASS AND INCREASED WINDS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER ALONG WITH A 20-25 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET WILL PROVIDE WARMER TEMPERATURES AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40 DEGREES.
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE TO DEVELOP. CONTINUED THE MENTION OF FREEZING DRIZZLE. DID NOT ISSUE ANY HEADLINE FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE TONIGHT. THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO EXIT RAPIDLY BUT NOT BEFORE GIVING A VERY GOOD CHANCE FOR LINGERING LIGHT SNOW FOR MANY AREAS EAST OF I 29. BLENDED A LOT OF RELATIVELY WARMER RAW MODEL VALUES INTO THE MIX PRODUCING UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S.
Moderate low level southerly flow will eventually bring shallow layer of moisture in to the area ahead of the associated cold front tonight. Not a major cool down behind the Pacific cold front.
942 PM EST SUN JAN 24 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TONIGHT BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE.
1036 PM EST SUN JAN 24 2016 HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AND MONDAY.
710 PM EST SUN JAN 24 2016 HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AND MONDAY.
UPPER LOW PRES SYSTEM WAS SLOWLY MOVING INTO THE ROCKY MT REGION THIS AFTN. WITH THE TROUGH AXIS APPROX OVER THE CONTDVD AS OF 3 PM. AND TO AROUND 40 F FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS. COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE PALMER DVD CURRENTLY WILL USHER IN COLDER AIR AND PCPN CHANCES FOR THE I25 CORRIDOR AND E PLAINS THROUGH THIS EVE. THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES EAST QUICKLY THOUGH. A SECOND PIECE OF ENERGY DROPS DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH TOMORROW. WHICH IS ABOUT 20 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY. MAX TEMPS FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS SHOULD REACH TO AROUND 30 F. WHICH IS ABOUT 10 DEGREES COOLER. MOORE ANOTHER SURGE OF COOLER AIR WILL BE COMING DOWN THE PLAINS AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS PERIOD (MONDAY EVENING).
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT ALLOWING THE WINDS TO SWITCH TO THE SE. THIS ALONG WITH CI CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE CWA WILL KEEP TEMPS WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT. AS THIS HIGH MOVES EAST OVERNIGHT RETURN FLOW WILL SETUP BY MONDAY WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AND CLOUDS. THIS SHOULD HELP LOWER TEMPERATURES A BIT MORE TONIGHT WITH VALUES POSSIBLY BOTTOMING OUT IN THE LOWER 20S.
THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE LESS AND EXPECT LOWER CIGS/FOG TO DEVELOP AROUND 10Z WITH IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 15Z. IT SHOULD FINALLY BE WARMER TONIGHT AS WINDS STAY UP FOR A WHILE. FIRST UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS TONIGHT/MONDAY BUT NOT ENOUGH MOISTURE TONIGHT. THEN RETREATS IT IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH. BOUNDARY LAYER IS COOLER AND WITH MORE CLOUDS. THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH WILL ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO MOVE JUST NORTH OF (OR EXTREME NORTHERN PORTIONS OF) THE CWFA BY DAYBREAK. A BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN/SHOWERS WITH THE APPROACH OF THIS TROUGH AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS PWATS GET AROUND 1 INCH AND CONVERGENCE WITH THE BOUNDARY.
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE PLAINS TONIGHT AND BRING A WARM FRONT ACROSS ARKANSAS LATE TONIGHT.
EXPECT THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO STRENGTHEN TOMORROW AS CLOUDS INCREASE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET MOVES MOVES OVER THE REGION AS THE UPPER RIDGE NUDGES INTO THE AREA LIMITING THE BEST DYNAMICS. THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA.
FORECAST MOSTLY ON TRACK THIS EVENING AS ALL IS QUIET WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. DECISION TO LOWER WAS BASED ON OBS RUNNING A LITTLE COOLER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED HOURLY TEMPS ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS. WILL STILL KEEP PATCHY FREEZING FOG IN THE FORECAST FOR THESE AREAS AS WELL. CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 27 51 42 53 / 0 0 40 80 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 24 50 38 49 / 0 0 20 70 OAK RIDGE, TN 25 49 38 48 / 0 0 30 70 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 18 48 33 46 / 0 0 20 70.
ROAD SURFACES WILL DROP BELOW FREEZING WITH ROADS BECOMING ICY. CURRENTLY ROAD SURFACES ARE DRY AND ABOVE FREEZING BUT DEPENDING ON THE ROAD TEMPERATURES WHEN THE SNOW STARTS FALLING.
PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE AND LIGHT SNOW THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT HIGHLIGHT THE SHORT TERM FORECAST. ALSO MAINTAINED THE MENTION OF PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL SATURATION WARMER THAN -10C SUPPORTS THIS THREAT UNTIL THE COLUMN CAN SATURATE SUFFICIENTLY TO ALLOW ICE CRYSTALS TO REACH THE LOW LEVEL STRATUS. FOG AND FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE AND LIGHT SNOW THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT HIGHLIGHT THE SHORT TERM FORECAST. ALSO MAINTAINED THE MENTION OF PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL SATURATION WARMER THAN -10C SUPPORTS THIS THREAT UNTIL THE COLUMN CAN SATURATE SUFFICIENTLY TO ALLOW ICE CRYSTALS TO REACH THE LOW LEVEL STRATUS. EXPECT CEILINGS TO LOWER TO MAINLY IFR BY LATE EVENING OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH SCATTERED TO ISOLATED LIGHT SNOW/FREEZING DRIZZLE.
1038 PM EST SUN JAN 24 2016 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WILL PROVIDE DRY AND MILD TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY.
602 PM EST SUN JAN 24 2016 A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY.
642 PM EST SUN JAN 24 2016 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WILL PROVIDE DRY AND MILD TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY.
THIS HIGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC STATES BY TOMORROW.
316 PM MST SUN JAN 24 2016 COLD FRONT LOOKS TO HAVE JUST SHIFTED SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 AT 2PM MST. ADVISORIES REMAIN IN PLACE AS MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT SNOWFALL OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER ON MONDAY IN THE COLD ADVECTION. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE GREAT BASIN ON TUE THROUGH MIDWEEK. THIS RIDGE WILL THEN GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST AND FLATTEN LATE IN THE WORK WEEK. BOTH MODELS INDICATE A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST AS THE WESTERLIES BUCKLE. TIMING NOT TOO FAR OFF FOR NOW WITH TROUGH PASSAGE OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES ON MON. BEFORE THE TROUGH BEGINS TO IMPACT THE AREA SUN NIGHT AT THE EARLIEST. PRECIPITATION WILL THEN PERSIST IN THE UNSTABLE SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AND AS THE TROUGH MOVES OVERHEAD.
WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED OVERNIGHT AS THE HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTS TO THE EAST AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL SLIDE INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST LATER TOMORROW NIGHT.
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE PUSHING SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING. APPEARS TO BE A GOOD SET UP FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE AS THE LIFT INCREASES AND STRATUS CLOUD TOP TEMPS BELOW -10C. MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH EVOLUTION OF UPPER AND SURFACE FEATURES THROUGH THE MID TERM AND BRINGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH WESTERN NEBRASKA TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK.
SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE LOW-LEVELS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT. UPPER AIR ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWED A RIDGE OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY AND A TROUGH TO THE WEST. HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OFF TO THE EAST AND WINDS WERE GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST ACROSS OUR CWA. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT AND MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL DEVELOP AT THE SURFACE AND MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA MONDAY.
624 PM EST SUN JAN 24 2016 HIGH PRESSURE TONIGHT DRIFTS EAST MONDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL PREVAIL OVER THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY.
WITH RIDGING ALOFT ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. MOST LOCATIONS HAVE MANAGED TO MAKE IT INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S FOR HIGHS TODAY. ALTHOUGH GIVEN THE WARMER START TO THE TEMPERATURES. HAVE PUT IN READINGS ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES WARMER COMPARED TO THIS MORNING. WITH RIDGES UP AROUND 20 DEGREES THANKS TO LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS. WARM AIR ADVECTION OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT REALLY ENGAGES. WITH LOWS LIKELY BEING ESTABLISHED BEFORE MIDNIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID 30S.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT.
WITH THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROF AND COLD FRONT. A LOW LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE WILL DEVELOP/SPREAD E INTO DEEP E TX/N LA/SCNTRL AR MONDAY AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL ADVANCE SE INTO WRN AR/EXTREME NE TX BY LATE AFTERNOON. WITH WARMER/DRIER AIR AHEAD OF THE FRONT MIXING EWD INTO NE TX/SE OK/SW AR DURING THE AFTERNOON. BEFORE THE COLD FRONT IS REINFORCED SEWD MONDAY NIGHT BY ADDITIONAL COLDER AIR THAT WILL BE DRAWN SWD BY A DEVELOPING LONGWAVE TROUGH E OF THE ROCKIES THAT WILL DIG SWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS. THIS TROUGH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO DEEPER LARGE SCALE FORCING SUCH THAT SCT CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP IN EARNEST MONDAY EVENING ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT FROM DEEP E TX INTO NCNTRL LA.
THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT 20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED COLD FRONT FROM CENTRAL MT TO KIEN TO NORTHEAST NE. WATER VAPOR MATINEE PROJECTED UPPER TROUGH FROM AB/SK TO THE FOUR CORNERS AREA. UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO THE MIDWEST BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE WAVE WILL SLOWLY PUSH COLD FRONT INTO NE THIS EVENING.
826 PM EST SUN JAN 24 2016 A WEAK TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION MONDAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST MONDAY NIGHT.
728 PM EST SUN JAN 24 2016 LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM SOUTHWEST KANSAS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY LATE MONDAY EVENING. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S. HELPING TO KEEP TEMPERATURES MUCH WARMER THAN THE PAST SEVERAL NIGHTS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SURGE NORTHEAST OVER THE FORECAST AREA EARLY MONDAY AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE FREEZING. THERE IS STILL A SMALL CHANCE FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET AT THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION. LEFT EXIT REGION OF MID LEVEL JET TO PROVIDE UPPER DIFFLUENCE WHILE LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION AND ORTHOGONAL FLOW ON ISENTROPIC SURFACES PROVIDE ASCENT AHEAD OF MAIN COLD FRONT.
931 PM CST SUN JAN 24 2016 SOUTHERLY WINDS OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER TO MAINTAIN CONTINUED WARMING TREND ACROSS THE REGION WITH TEMPERATURES ONLY FALLING INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S AREAWIDE. UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO SWING NORTHEAST INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY OVERNIGHT POSSIBLY GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE ARKLATEX BEFORE DAYBREAK.
ANOTHER COLD NIGHT IN STORE ACROSS THE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES NEAR THE AREA AND PRODUCES LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES RESULTING IN GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFF THE CAROLINA COAST MONDAY AND THE RESIDUAL NORTH WIND FLOW ALONG THE COAST IN THE MORNING WILL SNAP AROUND TO THE EAST IN THE AFTN.
As of 3Z, do have some patchy freezing fog over south central KY over the thick snowpack, so did add that to the forecast grids overnight.
EVENING SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS HIGH PRESSURE (1024 MILLIBARS) COVERING THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. TROUGHING HAS DEPARTED THE EAST COAST. DEWPOINTS HAVE CREPT UP INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S. GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS TONIGHT WILL GRADUALLY PUSH EASTWARD EARLY THIS WEEK.
533 PM CST SUN JAN 24 2016 QUITE COMPLEX FCST THRU TONIGHT AS MAIN ISSUES ARE DETERMINING PCPN TIMING THEN CHANCE OVER FROM FREEZING TO FROZEN.