Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
An attendant cold front will move across west central and southwest Kansas this evening and should be south of the region by midnight. 850 millibar temperatures will be some 10 degrees celsius cooler than today so highs in the mid to upper 50s still looks good. Through the latter part of this week, the upper flow pattern continues to have a slight northwesterly component as an upper level ridge remains quasi-stationary over western North America. This will result in temperatures rising back up well into the 70s over the area with dewpoints falling into the lower to middle 20s and relative humidity levels falling to around 15 percent or less.
WARM FRONT LIFTING THROUGH THE PAC NW THIS EVENING IS QUICKLY INCREASING CLOUDS. E-CENTRAL OREGON AND W-CENTRAL ID MTNS REMAIN IN LINE TO SEE THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF PRECIP. PACIFIC WARM FRONT WILL INCREASE CLOUDS AND BRING RAIN TO OREGON ZONES LATE TONIGHT AND A CHANCE OF RAIN TO IDAHO ZONES TUESDAY MORNING. CLEARING AND WARMER LATER TUESDAY BEHIND THE WARM FRONT. COLD FRONT TUESDAY EVENING. SUPPORTED BY ENERGETIC UPPER TROUGH FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC. CLEARING AND COOLER EARLY WEDNESDAY BUT BY AFTERNOON THE NEXT UPPER RIDGE WILL ALREADY BE HERE WITH RAPID WARMING AGAIN.
A WARM FRONT WILL BEGIN PUSHING INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. AS SUCH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE 15 TO 20 DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL ENTER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN PUSHING INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA LATE TONIGHT. LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR SNOW MAY DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA AFTER MIDNIGHT. THAT APPEARS REASONABLE AS A NORTHWEST-FLOW SHORT- WAVE TROUGH CROSSES THE AREA WITH MODERATE QG FORCING THAT ACTS ON ONLY WEAK LOW- TO MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS /WHICH ITSELF APPEARS TO BE DISPLACED FROM THE BETTER FORCING ALOFT/. WE ALSO HAVE A CHANCE OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IN THE FORECAST OVER SOUTHWEST ND ON WEDNESDAY MORNING. BUT CONFIDENCE IN THAT IS NOT VERY HIGH DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN PRECIPITATION ACTUALLY FALLING IN THE NARROW WINDOW OF TIME WHEN THERMAL PROFILES COULD YIELD FREEZING RAIN.
1241 AM EST TUE MAR 1 2016 HIGH PRESSURE IS WEAKENING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL APPROACH THE SOUTH FLORIDA AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, THE FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS IS PRETTY WEAK, AND THE ATMOSPHERE IS STILL PRETTY DRY, SO NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. OTHERWISE, HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PENINSULA CONTINUES TO PREVAIL.
FXUS65 KPSR DDHHMM CCA AFDPSR 245 AM MST TUE MAR 01 2016 VERY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE REGION IS FORECAST TO PRODUCE VERY WARM TEMPERATURES.
252 AM CST TUE MAR 1 2016 The 30+ degree cooler temperatures we'll see today will be short- lived as that cooler air mass quickly shifts east of the region. But these warmer temperatures will occur with gusty winds too and as a result there will likely be high fire danger.
Another round of storms is expected to form along/ahead of the cold front over the next hour or so across NE OK and will move quickly toward NW AR into the early morning hours Tuesday. Additional thunderstorms are expected to develop in the vicinity of a cold front that is expected to move into northern Oklahoma around 2 am Tuesday morning.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REDEVELOP LATE WEDNESDAY.
COLD HIGH PRESSURE FROM SASKATCHEWAN INTO NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTH. LIGHT SNOW OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY IS MOVING INTO STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR SO DO NOT EXPECT ANYTHING MORE THAN A FEW FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW WITH TRACE AMOUNTS. WITH A WARM FRONT APPROACHING WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BY THE LATE AFTERNOON. A RETURN TO ABOVE FREEZING HIGHS IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND WEST.
WILL SEE COOLER CONDITIONS TODAY AND CLOUDS CLEARING.
A COLD FRONT HAS ALREADY MOVED THRU KGUY AND KDHT. COLD FRONT TONIGHT RESULTS IN HIGHS ON TUESDAY NEAR CLIMO.
EVEN AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. THE MID TO LATE MORNING FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL EVACUATE THE LOW CLOUDS AND BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL THE REMAINDER OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION TONIGHT AND SWEEP SWIFTLY ACROSS DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S IN THE NORTH TO MID 70S IN THE SOUTH. OUR CENTRAL TEXAS COUNTIES WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE NEAR STEADY TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH THE HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR THE DAY BEING REACHED AROUND MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON.
FREEZING RAIN AND/OR SLEET) BRIEFLY POSSIBLE PRIOR TO CHANGING OVER TO SNOW. A SFC COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. COLDER HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH AND BELOW NORMAL HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY. THE SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION IS ALSO MUCH WARMER WHICH WOULD PRODUCE MAINLY RAIN.
THE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED SOUTH OF ALL TAF SITES WITH NORTH WINDS BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. A COLD FRONT HAS ALREADY MOVED THRU KGUY AND KDHT. COLD FRONT TONIGHT RESULTS IN HIGHS ON TUESDAY NEAR CLIMO.
WARM FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. DEW POINTS WERE VERY LOW TODAY SO WILL LIKELY TAKE SOME TIME TO SATURATE THE LOWER LAYERS. A BRIEF BREAK TUESDAY THEN THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. PARTLY CLOUDY WEDNESDAY UNDER AN UPPER RIDGE. THEN THE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE WEST. THIS COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BRING LOWER CIGS (3.
ATTENTION LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON THEN TURNS TO THE ARRIVAL OF A COLD FRONT. NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10-15 MPH BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BRING SOME DRIER AND COOLER AIR INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS WITH WEDNESDAY MORNING LOWS RANGING IN THE 40S OVER THE NORTHERN COUNTIES TO MID 50S ALONG THE COAST UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
THE LOWEST ELEVATIONS MAY SEE NO PRECIPITATION AT ALL. THIS STORM HAS A DEEP ENOUGH SOUTHERLY AIRFLOW THAT TEMPERATURES MAY WARM INTO THE 60S AT SOME OF THE LOW ELEVATION LOCATIONS LIKE BURLEY AND POCATELLO. WITH MANY SNAKE RIVER PLAIN AND EASTERN MAGIC VALLEY SPOTS STAYING ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK.
MAJOR CHANGES WILL OCCUR TODAY AS A H5 TROUGH DIGS SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE GULF COAST STATES. ALL OF THIS WILL OCCUR OUT AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHING FROM MCI TO OKC. STRONG FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER TROUGH AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE SCATTERED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP NEAR/AFTER 12Z ACROSS WESTERN ZONES. BUT THE LOW INSTABILITY AND RELATIVELY POOR MOISTURE RETURN FROM THE GULF SHOULD KEEP THE TORNADO THREAT QUITE LOW. NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED DUE TO THE BRIEF DURATION AND TEMPERATURES REMAINING ABOVE FREEZING UNTIL AFTER PRECIP ENDS.
Winds of 15 to 25 mph will decrease this afternoon as weak high pressure builds into the region. Highs today will be around 60 except slightly cooler mid 50s north and east of Dodge City. Light and variable winds become south around 10 to 15 mph by morning as a trough of low pressure develops into northwest Kansas. Lows will be in the low to mid 30s. Through the latter part of this week, the upper flow pattern continues to have a slight northwesterly component as an upper level ridge remains quasi-stationary over western North America. This will result in temperatures rising back up well into the 70s over the area with dewpoints falling into the lower to middle 20s and relative humidity levels falling to around 15 percent or less.
THERE ARE LOW LEVEL CLOUD CONVERGENCE BANDS AND THE LOW LEVEL WIND PROFILE IS SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE FOR WATERSPOUT DEVELOPMENT. MAINLY HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE ALTHOUGH A COUPLE OF WEAK AND MAINLY DRY FRONTS WILL APPROACH SOUTH FLORIDA BUT BECOME DIFFUSE AS THEY PASS ACROSS.
A weak cold front moving through the area overnight will shift winds to the north. The cold front will reach the northern terminals around 14Z and the southern terminals around 16Z. A weak cold front will move through the area overnight shifting winds to the north. The cold front will reach the northern terminals around 14Z and the southern terminals around 16Z. Trialing cold front will surge across West Central Texas on Tuesday, reaching the I-20 corridor from Sweetwater to Abilene by shortly after sunrise, San Angelo and Brownwood by mid morning, and into the I-10 locations by noon. Gusty north winds will prevail but with only slightly cooler temperatures.
1028 mb Canadian high pressure over western/nw IL will drift east into the eastern great lakes and central Appalachians by midnight tonight and ensure the fair weather today over IL. 08z/3am surface analysis shows weak trough axis dropping southward through north-central Indiana and northeast Illinois. Despite full sunshine, afternoon highs will only recover into the lower to middle 40s. As high pressure slides off to the east of the region, the next system will quickly begin approaching from the northwest tonight. The airmass will slowly moisten from the top-down on Sunday as the upper wave and associated cold front approach the Mississippi River.
After a cold start this morning, temperatures will rebound nicely as high pressure slips off to the east of the area and southerly flow begins to pick up. The high pressure should yield plenty of sunshine today. Precipitation chances move into southeast Missouri tonight with the passage of short wave energy and the approach of a warm front associated with a system developing over the plains. In the wake of the warm frontal passage on Sunday, precipitation chances will be somewhat limited with our area being in the warm sector along with the presence of a strengthening capping inversion.
WITH WEAK RIDGING/ZONAL FLOW ALOFT OVER SOUTH TEXAS. SUNDAY THE HIGHEST LOW LVL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE COASTAL ZONES AND VICTORIA CROSSROADS UNDER A FAIRLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT. STILL COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOP UNDER THIS CAP SUNDAY AS UPPER LOW/TROUGH MOVES FURTHER EAST TOWARDS THE REGION. AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER ACROSS THE WEST.
609 AM CDT SAT APR 9 2016 A COLD FRONT IS PUSHING SW THROUGH THE STATE THIS MORNING. TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT ANOTHER DRY COLD FRONT IS PUSHING SOUTH INTO THE CWA EARLY THIS SAT MORNING. THE SFC COLD FRONT WILL START LIFTING BACK NE AS A WARM FRONT THIS AFTERNOON.
MODELS DO NOT INDICATE MUCH PCPN IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THIS LOW.
THE BLOCK IS NOW IN PLACE WITH THE RIDGE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND THE LOW JUST OFF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. AND INLAND HIGHS WILL BE 2 TO 3 DEGREES COOLER THAN THE SATURDAY HIGHS.
LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS INTO S SASKATCHEWAN/E MT. THE LOWEST RH VALUES SET UP DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS W. LOWS WILL BE 10-20 DEGREES WARMER TONIGHT. WILL LEAN THE FCST MORE TOWARDS THE LOWER DEW POINTS FROM THE GFS.
700 AM CDT SAT APR 9 2016 08z/3am surface analysis shows weak trough axis dropping southward through north-central Indiana and northeast Illinois. Despite full sunshine, afternoon highs will only recover into the lower to middle 40s. As high pressure slides off to the east of the region, the next system will quickly begin approaching from the northwest tonight. The airmass will slowly moisten from the top-down on Sunday as the upper wave and associated cold front approach the Mississippi River.
1236 PM EDT SAT APR 9 2016 LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH OFF TO THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON. DRY AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW HAS ALLOWED FOR THE MORE PROMINENT BAND OF SNOW TO WEAKEN AS THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST. BUT THE BEST CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION WILL BE IN THE RIDGES WHERE UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT COULD CARRY AN ADDITIONAL 2-4 INCHES. THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT IS PROGGED TO SERVE AS THE INITIAL FOCUS FOR THE NEXT PRECIP CHANCES.
A freeze warning remains in effect for the majority of the forecast area, until diurnal temperature rises bring the region back above the freezing mark later this morning. Cooler air will eventually arrive in the 900-800 hPa layer and help to erode away the cap during the evening hours, allowing another round of showers and storms to develop along a southeastward moving cold front Sunday evening; but lapse rates continue to look mainly unimpressive, and despite strong deep-layer shear, the severe threat should be limited due to the inability of robust storms to develop in the first place.
Another upper trough will move onshore along the West Coast tonight and move east along the U.
A DRY AND COOLER AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THAT PASSED THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT. HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER 70S VOLUSIA COAST TO MID 70S INTERIOR AND AND ALONG THE SPACE AND TREASURE COAST.
931 AM EDT SAT APR 9 2016 A REINFORCING DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA EARLY TODAY. THE COLD PRESSURE RIDGE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL EXTEND INTO THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT OFF THE EAST COAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
920 AM PDT SAT APR 9 2016 A low pressure system will bring showers to the north state through the weekend with isolated thunderstorms possible. Low pressure area off the Southern California coast will continue to spread rain northward over parts of the northern interior. The low will slowly move inland over the next 36 hours with little change in the weather expected over Northern California.
/ISSUED 333 AM EDT SAT APR 9 2016/ A DRY COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS AND A WIND ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED. NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE FOR FREEZING TEMPERATURES OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA SO THE FREEZE WATCH WILL JUST BE CONTINUED.
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IS ON THE LOW SIDE AND THIS IS CORROBORATED BY WEAK QG FORCING SO MAIN DRIVER WILL BE SAID HEATING AND SOME FAVORABLE OROGRAPHICS. A CLOSED LOW CURRENTLY OFF THE SRN CALIF COAST. SURFACE TEMPS WILL REMAIN MILD UNDER THESE WARM DISTURBANCES WITH DAYTIME HIGHS NEAR NORMAL AND OVERNIGHT LOWS A LITTLER WARMER THAN USUAL THANKS TO CLOUD COVER.
/ISSUED 512 AM CDT SAT APR 9 2016/ LATEST WV IMAGERY AND UA ANALYSIS SHOWS A LARGE TROUGH OVER THE ERN CONUS EXTENDING FM AN UPR LOW OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. A UPPER LVL RIDGE WAS NOTED OVER TX IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE BIG BEND AREA. A COOL AIRMASS ACCOMPANIES THE HIGH WITH TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS MORNING IN THE UPR 40S TO MIDDLE 50S. WHILE NO RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH THE SYSTEM THANKS TO DRIER AIR IN THE LOWER LVLS.
Canadian high pressure will slip east of the Ozarks this morning bringing a return of southerly winds to the west. Cooler readings are expected to the east. South winds really kick in tonight, allowing for a much warmer night.
EXPECTING MVFR CIGS TO RETURN OVERNIGHT FROM SOUTH-TO-NORTH AS TRANSIENT UPR RIDGE FORMS A TEMPERATURE INVERSION ABOVE THE SFC LAYER. LOW CLOUDS RETURN OVERNIGHT AS WEAK H5 RIDGING MOVES IN. WITH LOW TEMPS ON SUNDAY MORNING IN THE LOW-MID 60S ACROSS THE CWFA.
SHOWER CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS AN UPPER LOW APPROACHES THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST.
725 AM EDT SAT APR 9 2016 DRY COLD FRONT MOVING OFF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE PENINSULA AS OF THIS WRITING, WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY AIR IN PLACE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. MODELS AND SFC ANALYSIS DEPICT A BROAD HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDING ACROSS THE SE STATES. EXPECT WARM DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WITH LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AND COOLER NIGHTTIME TEMPS TODAY AND ON SUN. AS THE HIGH SLIDES INTO THE ATLANTIC COAST.
OVERALL A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION PROVIDING WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
1008 AM EDT SAT APR 9 2016 LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA WILL MOVE EAST OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY.
WIDESPREAD SUB FREEZING TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING AND AGAIN TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED. SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES INTO THE AREA.
IN THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL UNITED STATES WILL BUILD SOUTHEASTWARD DOWN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER FLORIDA TODAY.
COMBINATION OF SHORT WAVE DROPPING SOUTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA AND UPPER LOW DIGGING ALONG CALIFORNIA COAST WILL HELP NUDGE LARGE SCALE TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN U.
6 INCH RANGE ARE NEAR THE HIGHEST OBSERVED DURING THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE LOW WILL TRACK SLOWLY EAST TOWARD THE CALIFORNIA COAST TODAY.
745 AM CDT SAT APR 9 2016 EARLY MORNING OBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED RIDGE AXIS FROM WESTERN MN INTO NRN MO. AS THE LEE TROUGH CONTS TO DEEPEN TODAY THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN LOCALLY AND WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHEAST. TMPS WILL ONLY BE A TOUCH WARMER THAN THOSE ON FRI WITH LESS MIXING AND ONLY A SLIGHT WARMING IN TEMPERATURES ALOFT. THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL WAA WILL CONT TO INCREASE TONIGHT WITH SOME MODIFIED GULF MOISTURE RETURN.
AFTERNOON INSTABILITY WILL GENERATE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN NEAR THE NV BORDER AND FAR EASTERN BOISE MTNS. WEAK RIDGING TODAY EVOLVES INTO A HIGH OVER LOW CONFIGURATION TOMORROW. THE LOW TO OUR SOUTH WILL HELP TRANSPORT MOISTURE NORTHWARD.
THE UPPER LOW IS CURRENTLY SITUATED RIGHT OVER THE FORECAST AREA. MADE ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BUT DID BUMP UP THE SNOW FOR THE HIGH TERRAIN. ANY LINGERING PRECIP WILL END BY EVE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT IS PROGGED TO SERVING AS THE INITIAL FOCUS FOR THE NEXT PRECIP CHANCES.
Updated at 1008 AM EDT Sat Apr 9 2016 Have allowed the first Freeze Warning to expire, as temperatures have now risen above freezing. Some locations in south central Kentucky remain in the lower 40s, but still have several hours in which to drop to freezing, so no changes will be made. Many locations in the Bluegrass region, especially the more sheltered valleys, will drop below freezing around midnight, and could remain there for several hours with a hard freeze possible. Highs will reach the lower/mid 60s under strong warm advection, but that will come at a price, namely south winds gusting to 30-35 mph in the afternoon and into the evening.
A WARM FRONT IS SLATED TO LIFT NORTH TOWARD THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH WILL QUICKLY SWEEP IN BEHIND THE WARM FRONT. IN THE EAST NORTHEAST /CENTRAL WI/ SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MORE OF A FREEZING RAIN/SLEET POTENTIAL. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF GRADUALLY BRING A WEST COAST RIDGE WEST.
BREEZY TODAY AS COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE REGION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND WILL PROVIDE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH TONIGHT. OTHER THAN A FEW HIGH CLOUDS EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. BELOW NORMAL TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S EXCEPT FOR UPPER 30S ACROSS INLAND SE GA AND SOME PATCHY FROST NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION IN NORMALLY COLDER AND SHELTERED LOCATIONS BUT ATMOSPHERE TOO DRY AND NOT WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT THE ISSUANCE OF FROST ADVISORY.
MID AND UPPER LEVELS WILL BE DRYING OUT AND LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE SPREADING OVER THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SHORT WAVE TROUGH. FOLLOWING TODAYS IMPULSE AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BE IN PLACE EARLY SUNDAY WITH LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.
928 AM EDT SAT APR 9 2016 COOLER AND MUCH DRIER AIR HAS PUSHED THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT SETTING THE STAGE FOR A FANTASTIC WEEKEND ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND SW FLORIDA. AS STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS PERSIST IN THE WAKE OF A REINFORCING COLD FRONT.
A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE TERMINALS WITH WINDS SWITCHING AROUND TO NORTHWESTERLY.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND LIGHT LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW WILL GIVE DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 60S.
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 57 35 68 46 / 10 0 10 10 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 51 31 65 45 / 10 0 10 10 OAK RIDGE, TN 52 31 65 47 / 10 0 10 10 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 47 26 62 42 / 10 0 10 10 NC.
715 AM EDT FRI JUN 19 2015 CLEARING SKIES WITH A DRYING TREND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TODAY.
BILL IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TODAY AS IT CONTINUE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD. THE LOW WILL TRACK ALONG THE AR AND MO BORDER MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST MISSOURI BY LATE AFTERNOON. NEAR THE THE TRACK OF THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER. KEPT THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH GOING FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST AR AND THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM WALNUT RIDGE AR TO CARUTHERSVILLE MO. CLOUDS WILL DECREASE AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSHES FURTHER TO THE EAST.
1033 AM EDT FRI JUN 19 2015 A SLOWLY-EVOLVING DEEP LAYER MEAN ANTICYCLONE PERSISTS OVER THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC LATE THIS MORNING.
MORNING WATER VAPOR LOOP AND H5 ANALYSIS INDICATE A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS REMAINING IN PLACE FROM THE SOCAL COAST EAST THROUGH THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. RESULTANT TEMPS TODAY WILL TEND TO RUN A FEW DEGREES COOLER DUE TO WEAK MID LEVEL CAA FROM THE NORTHWEST.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO SWING ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM PUSHED THROUGH THE AREA EARLIER THIS MORNING.
The center of the low had made some progress to the east overnight, currently at 3am positioned near the Hail Stone Region of the Upper Buffalo River in northern Arkansas.
H7-H5 TROUGH POSITIONED ACROSS THE LOWER/MIDDLE RIO GRANDE PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT CONVECTION ACROSS THE WEST TODAY. A MID LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH WILL REMAIN DRAPED ACROSS NORTHERN MEX JUST W OF THE CWA TODAY THRU SAT. KEPT THE HIGHER POPS ACROSS THE W CWA DUE TO PROXIMITY OF THE TROUGH AND HIGHER PWAT VALUES. KEPT CHC POPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA ON SAT AS MODELS PROG THE TROF TO SHIFT SLIGHTLY E ON SAT ALONG WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN PWAT VALUES.
A WEAK UPPER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA TODAY KEEPING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEKEND FOR SUNNIER WARMER WEATHER.
1103 AM EDT FRI JUN 19 2015 AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY.
A broad upper level ridge was located across the central Rockies. The upper trough across northwest AR will shift east into western TN by late this afternoon. the Upper ridge across the central Rockies will build east into western KS and the TX PNHDL. A stronger band of westerly mid and upper level winds will round the ridge axis across the northern plains. A broad area of subsidence ahead of the building H5 ridge will keep the CWA dry with mostly clear skies Today and Tonight.
WEAK RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE AREA SATURDAY AS WEAK UPPER TROUGH DIGS NEAR 140 W WHICH WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
RADAR RETURNS SHOWING CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN RESPONSE TO LIFT BEING CREATED BY AN UPPER TROF THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN MONTANA DURING THE AFTERNOON.
924 AM EDT FRI JUN 19 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE COAST EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS THIS FRONT FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
TYPICAL LATE JUNE MIXING TO H85 YIELDS HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S. THE PAC NW SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE ROCKIES TODAY AND SHORT TERM MODELS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THUNDERSTORM DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON OVER THE HIGH PLAINS OF MT/WY TRACKING THIS ACTIVITY TO THE E OVERNIGHT. THE SURFACE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE PAC NW SYSTEM WILL TRACK SEWD THROUGH THE FA DURING THE DAY ON SAT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER TO MID 90S SOUTH TO NEAR 90 ALONG THE I80 CORRIDOR. WITH DEW POINTS ALONG AND HEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE LOWER 70S WE WILL LIKELY SEE HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 100-105 FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS IN THE AFTERNOON. WE AGAIN COULD SEE SOME CONVECTION ROLL OFF THE HIGH PLAINS AND MAY GET INTO NE NEB TOWARD 12Z ON SUN.
1015 AM EDT FRI JUN 19 2015 A COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH THIS MORNING WITH A FEW SHOWERS. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THICK CLOUDS OVER THE AREA JUST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT FROM WATERTOWN TO ERIE. COLD FRONT SHOULD BE SOUTH OF THE AREA BY NOON THEN DRIER AIR COMES IN FROM THE NORTH CLEARING THE SKIES. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL DROP IN TONIGHT THEN MOVE EAST EARLY SATURDAY.
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 110 TO 115 DEGREE RANGE ON THE LOWER DESERTS.
NEW NAM GUIDANCE SHOWING CURRENT GRIDDED MAX TEMPERATURES A COUPLE DEGREES LOWER THAN ITS 21Z NUMBERS BUT YESTERDAY HIGHS STILL REACHED THE LOWER TO MID 90S SO DID NOT WANT TO LOWER HIGHS TODAY.