Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
408 AM EST Thu Dec 21 2017 Currently - The elongated weak western flank of an Atlantic ridge extends across the Bahamas and the Florida Keys. Stable conditions continue due to mid and upper level ridging across the area producing a strong and sharp subsidence inversion at 850 mb. Forecast - The ridge axis will remain near the Keys today into tonight, resulting in light flow. High pressure building off the Atlantic coast will briefly bolster local winds late Friday. Deep layered ridging will continue to shut down shower development. A cold front associated with the previously mentioned trough progress southeastwards through the Gulf of Mexico and nearby Atlantic waters this weekend. The high pressure system driving the front southwards will ride eastwards into the eastern United States.
303 AM CST Thu Dec 21 2017 One more warm and dry day is expected before the first of two cold fronts arrives tonight. There are still some difference on how the models are handling the placement of the upper low as it moves across the South Plains Friday. The GFS has the closed low opening up as it moves across the Panhandle with limited moisture. The NAM is the outlier and keeps the low closed and takes it much further south although the 00Z run does not have as much precip as the previous runs. The column will cool quickly as the upper low moves across, so went with slight chance of snow for Rolling Plains on Friday night.
Did lower temperatures to the lower side of the blended guidance with the fresh snow and possible late clearing. Another broad upper level trough stretched across Canada will push a weak short wave disturbance across NE Montana Thursday night through Friday morning with very little, if any, snow accumulation. Models currently place the heaviest snow along and north of the Missouri River this morning and shifts the heaviest snow to the south this afternoon as the low moves to the east.
A strong cold front continues to move through the state. Much cooler temperatures will move into the region and persist into the weekend. As the closed upper low moves through the area tonight, additional light snow showers will be possible across NE NV.
Showers are dissipating this evening as the upper level trough pulls eastward. Upper level trough axis is currently passing overhead as of 3 PM MST. Things will remain dry through Thursday as a ridge continues to build off the western coast. By Friday, a large trough draped over the northern portion of the contiguous US will be well established.
Expect precip to taper off as the trof axis pushes to our east, so will most likely be confined to a pre-1st period timing. Surface front will hang up over the Tennessee Valley Friday night with plenty of isentropic lift on the cooler side of it, generating an axis of heavy rainfall somewhere near the KY/TN border.
Weak frontal boundary draped over the north Gulf Coast will sag into the north peninsula and wash out as it interacts with an H100-H70 anticyclone ridge axis over the FL Straits. Interaction btwn the frontal trof to the north and ridge axis to the south has tightened the H100-H70 pgrad enough to support a solid 25-30KTS of wrly flow over central FL. Extensive upper high pressure area centered south of FL wl drift ewd across the isle of Cuba into this weekend. The feature will provide warmer than normal temperatures for this region along with stable conditions and morning fog.
Conditions tonight will be calm and cooler with the possibility of patchy fog developing across most of the area.
1053 PM CST Wed Dec 20 2017 Low pressure continues to pull away but a moist airmass remains over the area.
The GFS and ECMWF are more progressive with an upper low moving across the northern TX Panhandle. the NAM12 and Canadian bring the upper low further south over New Mexico (the NAM12) or northern Chihuahua (the Canadian).
Southwest winds will increase Thursday night ahead of an upper- level trough to the west.
228 AM EST Thu Dec 21 2017 Warm front lifts north today.
310 AM EST Thu Dec 21 2017 Wedge of high pressure has begun to build down the from the east. However, the low clouds will persist through tonight. The wedge may begin to retreat a bit on Friday as cold front approaches the Mississippi River valley. However, models typically diminish the wedge too fast - so not expecting a lot of improvement with the low clouds for Friday.
Upper level low is departing to the east and showers are quickly winding down which will come to an end by midnight and skies clearing. A ridge of high pressure off the Pacific Northwest will nudge inland overnight and Thursday placing us under a cold dry northerly flow. Stratocumulus 2000-4000 ft agl is evident on IR satellite over much of central Oregon and portions of the Lower Columbia Basin primarily impacting BDN/RDM and DLS.
1203 AM EST Thu Dec 21 2017 Dry conditions can be expected until low pressure returns precipitation to the region on Friday into the weekend. Dry weather should continue overnight under high pressure, though an increase in mid level clouds is expected in warm advection. Precipitation chances will increase Friday as a warm front lifts north over the forecast area. Will need to watch temperature trends Friday morning as any early morning precip may pose brief freezing rain problems.
414 AM EST Thu Dec 21 2017 A low pressure system will develop over Missouri today and track towards northern Ohio overnight.
with broad upper level ridging extending from western Cuba northward over the Florida peninsula. This upper trough moves eastward through the day which will allow for the upper ridge to further build over the southeast U.
321 AM CST Thu Dec 21 2017 Patchy to areas of drizzle will impact portions of central and east-central Kansas this morning, generally along/north of Highway 56, in vicinity of warm front/triple point taking shape across central Kansas. As colder air begins blasting southeast across the region in wake of a strong cold front, thinking a period of very light freezing drizzle mixed with flurries are possible this afternoon and evening, generally along/north of the Highway 56 corridor. Otherwise, a wide range in temperatures will exist across the region today, with 50s-60s ahead of the cold front across southeast Kansas, and temperatures falling into the upper 20s by early evening across central Kansas in wake of the front, ushered in by strong/gusty north winds. A long stretch of below normal temperatures will start Friday, as longwave troughing becomes firmly entrenched across North America.
1001 PM MST Wed Dec 20 2017 Upper trough dropping into the Great Basin this afternoon with very warm and dry southwest flow ahead of it over all of srn CO. Tonight, trough digs southward toward the four corners, with mid level low closing off over srn UT by early Thu morning. Cold front drops south through the plains toward sunrise, then banks up against the eastern mountains by midday Thu. On Thu, upper low moves slowly eastward into CO, with system weakening and taking on a more positive tilt by late afternoon as it tracks along the CO/NM border. I-25 corridor amounts in general look spotty and light, with perhaps an inch or 2 along the Palmer Divide and across the higher terrain south of Pueblo.
An upper trough will move from the Great Basin to the Four Corners region today, and into New Mexico tonight. Ahead of the main upper trough, a weaker disturbance embedded in southwest flow aloft will move into our area tonight. A cold front will push south across the Big Country area tonight, and by 6 AM Friday should be just south of a Brownwood to Sterling City line.
The low level southerly flow will continue to push moist air northward into central and parts of southwest Kansas this evening. West/northwest winds behind this low should keep fog out of the far western and southwest counties. Some potential for dense fog to develop but there is uncertainty as to the coverage and extent as model soundings show a fairly shallow layer with increasing winds/mixing in the upper part of the low level inversion. In addition to the fog, there will be the possibility for some drizzle developing toward central Kansas where the low level moist layer will be deeper. There is some potential for freezing drizzle if temperatures fall quickly enough behind the front. The upper trough/closed low over will move out over the central Plains on Friday, weakening as it does.
1107 PM CST Wed Dec 20 2017 As a low pressure system center passes by well to our south, light rain over mainly the Pennyrile region of KY is expected to erode rapidly from the west during the remainder of the afternoon. The PAH forecast area will be under ridging aloft Thu as surface pressures begin to drop and southwesterly low level flow increases ahead of the next low pressure system. A warm advection flow pattern will set up across the lower MS/lower OH valley Fri.
Quick look at 00Z NAM shows a compact upper low ejecting across southeast OK into western AR late Friday night (a bit faster than the 12Z run).
The main weather feature of interest will continue to be the closed upper low currently near the Four Corners with a cold pool aloft. The low will swing southeastward into New Mexico today and quickly lift into the middle part of the country on Sunday. With the low in the vicinity of the area, below normal temperatures and a continued chance of showers in eastern Arizona are expected today. A building ridge of high pressure will slowly slide east and become centered over the southwest US after mid week.
920 AM EDT Sat Apr 29 2017 Warm front remains just to the north today.
The offshore flow will result in a much warmer day west of the mountains today, as the marine air is driven offshore.
926 AM EDT Sat Apr 29 2017 Unseasonably warm conditions will prevail over the weekend as strong high pressure holds offshore.
With an upper level ridge nudged into the region and a thermal trough on the southern coast offshore flow is in place from the coast across the east side. The thermal trough will move inland today and with the warmer temperatures aloft will bring a warm up of near 10 degrees across the region from yesterday's highs. As the upper level ridge transitions to a northwester zonal flow pattern a weak front comes ashore Saturday night.
626 AM CDT Sat Apr 29 2017 High pressure will remain in control today keeping conditions dry with pleasant temperatures, albeit a bit on the cool side and below normal. Winds look to be around 10 mph or less over areas where RH will be the lowest. Bumped up highs today a couple degrees based on slightly warmer temps aloft and comparing conditions to yesterday's temps.
1110 AM EDT Sat Apr 29 2017 High pressure will extend across the area from offshore through Sunday.
A strong upper storm system and warm front will bring unsettled weather to the TAF sites over the next 24 hours. Storms should begin to clear out of the area fm W to E aft 00Z tonight as winds shift to the west behind a developing cold front. Early AM sfc analysis showed an increasingly well-defined warm front from just north of KFSM and extending back into southwest OK near KLAW.
749 AM EDT Sat Apr 29 2017 Showers and thunderstorms will continue to develop today along a slow moving warm front. Drier conditions are expected Sunday when the warm front is forecast to be near Lake Erie.
Drier conditions are expected Sunday when the warm front is forecast to be near Lake Erie.
The upper low over northwestern New Mexico will move slowly east into the southern Rockies today. Strong high pressure aloft will finally reach the area around the middle of the week. The upper low centered over northwestern New Mexico this morning is expected to shift east out of the area through the day. The back edge of the upper low will cross Utah this afternoon, with a small chance of producing a few showers across the higher terrain, otherwise sunny to partly cloudy skies are expected in most areas. The sun combined with a general warming of the airmass will lead to warmer afternoon maxes, although they will remain below normal.
The 50kt 3-5kft MSL southwesterly winds air also shrinking, suggesting a gradual weakening of the low level jet nearing its climatological diurnal minimum. Suspect this is an baroclinic and ageostrophic response to the upper low in the Southwest U. digging and building in the mid-upper level ridge from southeast to northwest across the WFO PAH forecast area.
Still, high fire danger will continue across the lower Colorado River Valley through the late afternoon.
Clear skies were evident across SE Oregon and SW Idaho this morning as an upper ridge builds in from the west. Temperatures will be warmer today - near normal in SE Oregon and slightly below normal in SW Idaho. Warmer and less windy today as short wave upper ridge comes in from the north Pacific. As an upper level ridge builds off the coast, the area is expected to remain in a northwest flow with most shower activity occurring along the divide.
745 AM EDT Sat Apr 29 2017 A warm moist southerly flow will continue through the weekend, as a strong high pressure remains anchored off the Southeast U. It will definitely feel like summer today as central NC as an area of high pressure at the surface and aloft extends across our region. Finding it difficult to justify high temps as much as 7-8 degrees, primarily over the western Piedmont, Sunday afternoon with little notable change in the low level air mass. Surface and upper level ridge does weaken with upper heights 30-50m lower than today, but warm/moist sly flow will maintain the summer-like air mass.
607 AM CDT Sat Apr 29 2017 High pressure will dominate the weather today with another day similar to yesterday with temperatures a couple of degrees warmer, still about 15 degrees below normal. High pressure slides north of Lake Superior tonight as low pressure in Texas moves toward northeast Oklahoma.
General deep layer ridging exists across the Florida peninsula, southeast U. Warmer temperatures aloft, subsidence aloft, and unimpressive deep layer moisture values continue and thus will keep PoPs out of the forecast, except along the Treasure Coast for late overnight where a few coastal showers may make it onshore in the deeper/moderate SERLY flow.
/Issued 336 AM EDT Sat Apr 29 2017/ Warmer than normal temperatures will make it feel like the beginning of Summer rather than Springtime today. High pressure aloft and at the surface will continue off the southeast coast Today and Sunday.
On Sunday, the low pressure system should begin to push northeast out of the area and place the Panhandles in the dry slot. However, by mid-week another longwave upper level trough swings down across the Rockies and brings another shot of rain and isolated thunderstorms. The end of the week into the weekend looks dry as high pressure takes over.
The offshore flow and high pressure aloft off the California coast will bring much warmer high temperatures for coastal and western valley areas today. a trough of los pressure developing near the West Coast will bring stronger onshore flow with greater cooling spreading inland. WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO A slow moving low pressure system was over the central and southern Rockies early this morning with high pressure aloft off the California coast. The offshore flow combined with the high pressure aloft off the California coast will bring much warmer high temperatures today for coastal and western valley areas with warmest high temperatures today of around 90 in some inland coastal areas.
Deep tropical humidity will prevail across the Midsouth today as the region remains in a low level warm sector, ahead of an approaching upper low. Despite the heat and humidity, the lower atmosphere will remain capped by an elevated mixed layer above 800 mb.
Strong and gusty south to southeast winds will persist today as deep low pressure advances northeast from north Texas. This system will advance a cold front across the area later tonight with showers and thunderstorms expected along the boundary. Clouds and gulf moisture have held temperatures steady in the mid to upper 70s as dew points hungout in the low to mid 70s. An area of low pressure over north Texas with and adjacent cold front will move out of west texas today as an upper level trof digs into west Texas. As the trof digs down and we pickup modest daytime heating this will all combine to support storms this afternoon into the overnight hours.
A weak trof axis will shift across central Montana this evening. A wet pacific cold front will slide through the CWA Sunday evening and bring widespread rains showers across the region through the night.
High amplitude upper ridging is present off the West Coast with dry northerly flow. AMS warms today as upper ridge axis shifts inland. Weak short wave trough pushes through the PacNW Sunday and digs into the Great Basin. Upper ridging flattens slightly and retrogrades, resulting in little change in max temps over Interior NorCal tomorrow.
High pressure ridging into the forecast area from the north will provide the subsidence needed for a dry day with a lot of sunshine. It deepens as it does so and closer vertical stacking of the low slows the whole system. As the low moves toward Iowa it spreads its precipitation shield into the southeast part of the forecast area, the Dickey county area.
Clouds and gulf moisture have held temperatures steady in the mid to upper 70s as dew points hungout in the low to mid 70s. An area of low pressure over north Texas with and adjacent cold front will move out of west texas today as an upper level trof digs into west Texas. As the trof digs down and we pickup modest daytime heating this will all combine to support storms this afternoon into the overnight hours.
/issued 506 AM EDT Sat Apr 29 2017/ Through Sunday: Similar to yesterday, surface analysis overlaid with 500 mb shows a broad troughing from the Ohio Valley to the southern plains and a cold front draped southward along the Appalachians. For today, models indicate the 592 dm upper level high pressure center to edge northward over the western Atlantic.
1224 PM EDT Sat Apr 29 2017 High pressure ridging into the forecast area from the Atlantic will dominate through Sunday and help keep any thunderstorms mainly associated with heating isolated.
Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms will continue today and tonight as a deep upper level low lifts northeast from the southern Rockies and interacts with a stalled front across the region. The highest amounts will generally fall along and south of Interstate 44 with lower amounts farther north across central Missouri. Ample instability will be in place or develop across far southern Missouri as the warm front lifts north a bit. The severe risk will ultimately depend on the northward extent of the warm front. The upper low will make its way into the region Sunday allowing rain to taper off but not entirely end.
GAH PREVIOUS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION: The persistent closed low that has been spinning in place over Saskatchewan will open and drift on northeast into Manitoba today. The showers associated with this low also drift away from Northeast Montana. However a narrow upper trough forms along the front range of the Canadian and Northern Rockies today. This trough reaches our area, initiating scattered to isolated rain showers.
thanks to yesterday's warm front now located well to our north plus steady south breezes. The next threat for storms should hold off until late Sunday as the upper level low presently over the Four Corners moves into KS.
High pressure to our east will keep convection limited today. Chattanooga Airport, TN 89 68 87 65 / 20 20 10 70 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 89 68 85 64 / 20 10 10 50 Oak Ridge, TN 90 68 85 63 / 20 10 10 60 Tri Cities Airport, TN 89 64 81 61 / 20 10 10 30.
High pressure will continue to dominate the weather pattern across South Florida bringing dry conditions to the region. Breezy and dry conditions are expected on Sunday as well as high pressure remains in place. /issued 506 AM EDT Sat Apr 29 2017/ Through Sunday: Similar to yesterday, surface analysis overlaid with 500 mb shows a broad troughing from the Ohio Valley to the southern plains and a cold front draped southward along the Appalachians. For today, models indicate the 592 dm upper level high pressure center to edge northward over the western Atlantic.
Warm front will remain near the New York border through Sunday night as heights rise aloft. With a mid level ridge on Sunday much warmer and more humid conditions will develop.
949 AM EDT Sat Apr 29 2017 Warm front remains just to the north today.
Upper low is currently centered over Four Corners with SE flow ahead of this feature. This morning-this afternoon: A surge of CAA is still shown by guidance to spread out of the Northern plains and the upper low shifts northeast and deepens. Tonight-Sunday: This is the period of most concern as the upper low is shown to shift towards SW KS and deepen, with a consistent signal by available guidance.
Upper level ridging over the region will get nudged a bit eastward as a potent upper level low centered over the Four Corner's Area translates to the Texas Panhandle by this evening.
1229 PM EDT Sat Apr 29 2017 Unseasonably warm conditions will prevail over the weekend as strong high pressure holds offshore.
536 AM MDT Sat Apr 29 2017 Upper level analysis has large trof across the western CONUS with closed lows over the four corners area and across south central Canada. At the surface, high pressure was located across the Dakotas.
This will keep in the threat for showers and storms through much of the day and will also help to drive the surface warm front to the north, thus destabilizing the atmosphere as the day progresses. With the warm front drifting northward today, there will be a wide range of temperatures from north to south. The north will remain in the cooler and less humid air, while the south, generally south of PIT, will see warm temperatures and rising humidity levels. Warm front will remain near the New York border through Sunday night as heights rise aloft. With a mid level ridge on Sunday much warmer and more humid conditions will develop.
901 AM EDT Sat Apr 29 2017 A weak cold front will drop south through the region early today and will stall south of New England tonight as high pressure builds in from the northwest. High pressure will crest over the region early Sunday before shifting offshore.
In the low levels of the atmosphere, an Atlantic ridge of high pressure will extend across the Southeastern United States this afternoon. In the mid levels of the atmosphere, an area of high pressure will be located near the Carolina coastline today. In the upper levels of the atmosphere, a ridge of high pressure will be centered just east of the Florida peninsula this afternoon.
Rain chances will be suppressed under the effects of this ridging, despite the fact that southeasterly low level flow will continually increase atmospheric moisture and humidity.
An upper level ridge will produce dry weather over southwest Washington and northwest Oregon most of today after a cool start with patchy fog this morning.
Above the lowest levels the airmass is dry, thus these stratus clouds are expected to mix out this morning.
Lingering monsoon moisture over the region is expected to keep storm chances going over the region through Friday, especially over the higher terrain.
Readings are already down in the low to mid 50s across north central Illinois under a blanket of stratus clouds that will push farther southward near daybreak. The upper level low will lift northeast today, thus the core of the coldest air will skirt by to the north, but the clouds will remain trapped below the frontal inversion for a good portion of the day.
A weak trough moving through western Montana should increase the wind enough so that there should be some critical fire weather conditions in the mountains south of the Snake River.
The overall pattern will feature an upper level ridge of high pressure across the western states with an upper level trof over the eastern part of the country. For today and tonight, the weak cold front that pushed through most of the area yesterday will become diffuse and slowly dissipate.