Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
208 PM MDT Mon Mar 23 2020 Water vapor shows flat ridge moving through the northern Rockies/northern plains, with large trof along the west coast. At the surface, lee trof is deepening with pressure falls well eastward into the northern plains. Thermal ridge overhead will lead to our warmest day of the week, with temps well into the 60s and possibly even lower 70s south/east of the Black Hills. Jet streak ejects from west coast trof and pushes a cold front through the area Tuesday night, with baroclinic zone setting up close to our southwest.
Showers will continue to increase ahead of and along a cold front into this evening, especially from I-90 southward.
a rather strong upper level disturbance associated with an upper trough will move across the area tonight. Likely to categorical pops will be advertised with this feature with the highest chance generally along and south of the interstate. Low temperatures are expected to range from the low to mid 30s in far eastern Colorado, mid 30s to low 40s east of the CO/KS border. High temperatures are expected to be in the low to mid 60s in far eastern Colorado, mid 60s to 70 elsewhere. Low temperatures fall into the low 30s west to low 40s east.
Until then upper ridging and a warm layer should inhibit showers/storms.
358 PM EDT Mon Mar 23 2020 High pressure will build across the Great Lakes tonight which will bring dry conditions. A wave of low pressure moving into the Tennessee Valley on Tuesday afternoon and night will bring the next round of rain. Expect this to close up this evening as the low level moisture will not be scoured out despite weak high pressure building in from the west.
East winds are forecasted to organize in response to weak low pressure along the Ohio River. Forecast data suggests that a longwave ridge will build into the Great Lakes region for the end of the week and weekend.
Behind this feature, an Pacific cold front/dryline will move through our area, bringing drier air and west winds.
Low level flow will become more southerly overnight and likely lift clouds ahead of the developing warm front over South Dakota/Iowa overnight.
255 PM CDT Mon Mar 23 2020 A pleasant spring day is ongoing across western and central North Dakota, with mostly sunny skies and temperatures in the lower 40s east to mid 50s west. Mild temperatures will continue tonight, with overnight lows in the lower 30s. There is a slight chance for some rain or freezing rain in north central North Dakota Tuesday morning, but QPF amounts are very light.
With the low tracking so far south, instability will be limited and so only isolated thunderstorms are expected with this system. With the low leve advection of moisture into the region, this appears to be a prolonged period of wet conditions, with showers and embedded thunderstorms. High pressure was centered over western IL at midday. As the high moves out, east to east-southeast winds around 10 kt will develop around daybreak Tuesday. A low pressure system tracking towards southern Illinois on Tuesday, will spread an area of rain as far northeast as KSPI by late morning.
202 PM EDT Mon Mar 23 2020 Occasional showers will continue into this afternoon before high pressure builds tonight and Tuesday.
Current satellite pictures are showing a decent batch of moisture/clouds over Nevada and Utah associated with an upper level closed low. The trough, over central CA at this time will move quickly eastward, with the help a 150 kt jet max. The trough will be moving into southwestern CO by 6 pm this evening, and reach the CO/KS line by midnight tonight. This should help induce a Denver cyclone this afternoon. After 06z tonight, the models show subsidence developing as the trough exits into KS. In the mountains, light snow will continue but primarily orographic with any accumulating snowfall confined to the higher west facing slopes later this evening.
941 AM PDT Mon Mar 23 2020 A weakening low pressure system will exit central California today with showers gradually coming to an end over Southern California this afternoon.
Tomorrow, a low pressure system over Oklahoma will move east towards the Kentucky/Tennessee border. Model soundings are not showing any instability in the low levels.
Warm front is currently situated just south of the Red River. Mid level lapse rates look to be fairly impressive with 700-500mb rates in the 8-9c/km range, with the higher values over southern portions of the forecast area. Will introduce pops back into the forecast Thu night as mid level theta-e advection increases with the cold front across southeast KS also being a possible focus for convection.
This wave should interact with an area of leeside low pressure situated over south central CO later during the overnight period tonight as the system quickly begins to advance east over the next several hours. Better mixing over central KS has allowed for dissipation of cloud cover with dry air being entrained into the lower levels. For the mid to long range forecast, a broad persistent ridge should remain in place for much of the week ahead.
For this will maintain cooler temperatures over that area. Temperatures are trending cooler as is the entire troposphere.
Weak upper level ridging will remain in place through the short term period. Leaning a little warmer on temps west as this northwest slightly downslope flow often brings warmer than expected temperatures. Should still have low temps several degrees cooler tomorrow night, especially northwest where we could drop into the upper 50s.
Cold front passed through Boise area 730 PM MDT with showers and a thunderstorm and peak wind gust 38 mph, a little stronger than when it passed through Ontario, Caldwell, and Nampa. The front is expected to stall Tuesday morning only a little farther east from where it is now as the upper trough digs more to the south in Oregon.
527 PM MDT Mon Mar 23 2020 Water vapor shows flat ridge moving through the northern Rockies/northern plains, with large trof along the west coast. At the surface, lee trof is deepening with pressure falls well eastward into the northern plains. Thermal ridge overhead will lead to our warmest day of the week, with temps well into the 60s and possibly even lower 70s south/east of the Black Hills. Jet streak ejects from west coast trof and pushes a cold front through the area Tuesday night, with baroclinic zone setting up close to our southwest.
753 PM EDT Mon Mar 23 2020 High pressure will build across the Great Lakes tonight which will bring dry conditions. A wave of low pressure moving into the Tennessee Valley on Tuesday afternoon and night will bring the next round of rain. Expect this to close up this evening as the low level moisture will not be scoured out despite weak high pressure building in from the west.
1030 PM EDT Mon Mar 23 2020 Currently - The Keys are tucked in the southwestern flank of an Atlantic ridge extending across South Florida and the Gulf of Mexico. This ridge is producing mostly gentle east to southeast breezes across the area. Deep layered ridging remains fairly health across the area and this evening sounding indicated a healthy subsidence inversion based around 850 mb. Short Term Update - Ridging will maintain hold across the Keys, keeping winds gentle out of the east to southeast. A weak ridge across South Florida will maintain gentle to moderate east to southeast breezes across Keys waters.
The opposing SSW/SW flow with the ridge axis to our south will combat the onset of the seabreeze and result in temperatures to be a couple of degrees warmer (mid 80s) for locations along the coast. Weak high pressure ridging across the area will continue to settle south into south-central FL into Tue.
Winds have been light with high pressure centered over northern Illinois. There will begin to be some low level moisture convergence ahead of this trough over the southern and western parts of the CWA late tonight, so will continue with increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms after midnight. By tomorrow morning when lift associated with the trough will be moving into the area, will keep with the likely/categorical chances for showers/thunderstorms as the trough moves across the Midwest. The upper trough will be moving quickly, so I expect showers to exit the area by tomorrow evening.
628 PM CDT Mon Mar 23 2020 Updated aviation section for 00z taf issuance This evening will start off dry with variable cloud cover, as high pressure moves east of the region. Late tonight/early Tuesday morning, a warm front at H8 will lift northeast into the area in conjunction with some mid level support. The low track should be somewhere close to the MO/AR and KY/TN borders.
In the meantime, additional thunderstorms will begin to develop across northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas in advance of the aforementioned Thunderstorm cluster as a warm front surges into the area from the south.
657 PM EDT Mon Mar 23 2020 High pressure builds in Tuesday.
713 PM EDT Mon Mar 23 2020 High pressure will build into the area this evening with northwest winds advecting in some drier air. East winds are forecasted to organize in response to weak low pressure along the Ohio River. Forecast data suggests that a longwave ridge will build into the Great Lakes region for the end of the week and weekend.
/issued 158 PM CDT Mon Mar 23 2020/ An upper low was located over Srn CA this morning as a ridge remains over Mexico. This low will quickly move east and open up as it does reaching the TX Panhandle by early Tuesday.
A fast moving low pressure system will continue to bring gusty southwest winds, along with rain and high elevation snow showers, to portions of northern Arizona this afternoon.
A cold front will generate rain and mountain snow tonight through Tuesday.
A pleasant spring day is ongoing across western and central North Dakota, with mostly sunny skies and temperatures in the lower 40s east to mid 50s west. Mild temperatures will continue tonight, with overnight lows in the lower 30s. There is a slight chance for some rain or freezing rain in north central North Dakota Tuesday morning, but QPF amounts are very light.
815 PM EDT Mon Mar 23 2020 Stacked ridging over the state to keep the continued very warm/dry conditions for the local area.
Models show a weak upper trough to moves across the CWA this evening. The low level winds will be pretty weak this evening, then normal diurnal pattens kick in overnight and drainage patterns kick in overnight. Fairly deep moisture is progged over the CWA through 06Z tonight, then moisture decreases after the trough moves east.
757 PM EDT Mon Mar 23 2020 Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb trough in the upper Great Lakes and another over the Pacific NW and another in CA.
This low level moisture and warm advection will bring low clouds and patchy fog or drizzle (possibly freezing drizzle before temps warm in a few cool spots) to portion of the area after midnight towards morning across the southern valley and into lakes region of MN. Cold front Tuesday night will send temps below freezing overnight.
655 PM CDT Mon Mar 23 2020 Issued at 343 PM CDT MON MAR 23 2020 The fog and low clouds limited our heating today with high temperatures only climbing into the lower 50s. Models have been trending south for the low which is causing the MUCAPE, LLJ, and WAA to also trend south. This system quickly moves out of the area by the late afternoon with higher pressure and some upper level ridging pushing back into the area.
411 PM CDT Mon Mar 23 2020 A warm front to our south will lift north into the area overnight, while an upper wave approaches from the west.
928 PM CDT Mon Mar 23 2020 Skies are partly cloudy across the Mid-South this evening with temperatures ranging from the lower 50s to lower 60s. A warm front currently extends across central Alabama and into northern Louisiana. Overnight, a warm front will begin to return Northward likely approaching the Tennessee state line by 7 am. Dew points should be in the low to middle 60s tomorrow afternoon resulting in CAPE between 500 and 1,000J/kg.
With the low tracking so far south, instability will be limited and so only isolated thunderstorms are expected with this system. With the low level advection of moisture into the region, this appears to be a prolonged period of wet conditions, with showers and embedded thunderstorms. High pressure is over the region this evening resulting in light and variable winds across central Illinois. East winds will set up late tonight into Tuesday as the high shifts to our east.
649 PM CDT Mon Mar 23 2020 A weak disturbance ahead of an upper trough currently crossing the Four Corners Region will reach western Nebraska late this afternoon. By evening, chances will increase across southwest NE into the cntrl Sandhills as the main upper trough moves in.
Afternoon satellite shows an evident trough positioned off the Northwest coast today. Though instability is present and the low pressure system and terrain will lend some lift, have opted not to include wording for thunder where showers are likely to be most convective, around southern and eastern OR, as probabilities are just a bit too low.
A warm front will also be moving over the state with widespread MVFR to IFR conditions for a good part of the period. A cold front will move across the terminals late in the period with winds becoming more west to northwest and gusty and a return to VFR conditions.
/Issued 411 PM CDT Mon Mar 23 2020/ A warm front to our south will lift north into the area overnight, while an upper wave approaches from the west.
May see some erosion from the southeast as ridge axis shifts east, but most of central Illinois will remain overcast through the night. With the low tracking so far south, instability will be limited and so only isolated thunderstorms are expected with this system. With the low level advection of moisture into the region, this appears to be a prolonged period of wet conditions, with showers and embedded thunderstorms. High pressure is over the region this evening resulting in light and variable winds across central Illinois. East winds will set up late tonight into Tuesday as the high shifts to our east.
910 PM CDT Mon Mar 23 2020 Satellite imagery continues to show a short wave trough ejecting out of the western high plains and towards the region. Only light returns are seen locally but precipitation is expected to expand after midnight, aided by an advancing warm front from the south. A warm front will also be moving over the state with widespread MVFR to IFR conditions for a good part of the period. A cold front will move across the terminals late in the period with winds becoming more west to northwest and gusty and a return to VFR conditions.
1033 PM EDT Mon Mar 23 2020 High pressure will build across the Great Lakes tonight which will bring dry conditions. A wave of low pressure moving into the Tennessee Valley on Tuesday afternoon and night will bring the next round of rain.
Winds will shift to the north today and clouds will gradually clear out, making for a fairly mild day as ridging starts to move in.
Clouds will persist through the day however, keeping highs in the low to mid 50s.
Gentle to moderate southeast breezes are occurring with a relatively weak ridge axis extending southwestward into South Florida from near Bermuda.
The low clouds/fog will quickly be swept east by 08-09Z as the front moves through and breezy westerly winds advect in much drier air. Light winds, mostly clear skies and relatively dry air will allow temperatures to cool efficiently tonight, resulting in lows in the lower to middle 40s for most spots. An upper ridge over over the western GOMEX/Bay of Campeche will dominate the pattern tomorrow. The upper ridge along with downsloping winds associated with a surface lee trough will warm highs into the low to upper 80s.
Storms will be elevated given that we are north of the warm front with a pronounced inversion, making hail the primary threat but can't rule out an isolated damaging wind threat. (Wednesday through Tuesday) Issued at 1217 AM CDT Tue Mar 24 2020 Warmer and dry weather are expected for Wed and Thu with highs Wed in the mid 60s to low 70s and in the mid 70s to around 80 for Thu.
A low pressure system will bring unsettled weather to central Indiana this afternoon and tonight.
By this afternoon, MU CAPES will be between 200 and 300 J/kg, mid level lapse rates around 7, plenty of deep layer sheer, and convergence along the warm front.
Given the downslope component, went above guidance a few degrees and boosted forecast highs today into the low to mid 80s.
1148 PM CDT Mon Mar 23 2020 The low stratus across southeast South Dakota and southern Minnesota is starting to move northward finally. Had to bump up cloud amounts in the forecast overnight, and doubt temperatures will get too much cooler. This low level moisture and warm advection will bring low clouds and patchy fog or drizzle (possibly freezing drizzle before temps warm in a few cool spots) to portion of the area after midnight towards morning across the southern valley and into lakes region of MN. Cold front Tuesday night will send temps below freezing overnight.
East winds are forecasted to organize in response to weak low pressure along the Ohio River. Forecast data suggests that a longwave ridge will build into the Great Lakes region for the end of the week and weekend. Low pressure system that will reside on the lead edge of warm advection surge is forecasted to track through the northern Great Lakes Wednesday night.
1138 PM CDT Mon Mar 23 2020 Updated aviation section for 06z taf issuance This evening will start off dry with variable cloud cover, as high pressure moves east of the region. Late tonight/early Tuesday morning, a warm front at H8 will lift northeast into the area in conjunction with some mid level support. The low track should be somewhere close to the MO/AR and KY/TN borders. Any lingering convection in our eastern counties will move out early Tuesday evening, with quiet weather returning for the overnight through Wednesday and Wednesday night as weak high pressure returns. A deep positive tilt H5 trough over the west U.
416 AM EDT Tue Mar 24 2020 High pressure building in from the midwest will brighten the sky today. A chilly rain could affect the southern half of the area later tonight and early Wednesday as low pressure passes well south of the state. A weak cold front will press down into the state from the north and then lay out west to east and become stationary late this week. This front will be the focus for multiple waves of low pressure to provide multiple opportunities for rain this weekend.
Had to bump up cloud amounts in the forecast overnight, and doubt temperatures will get too much cooler. This low level moisture and warm advection will bring low clouds and patchy fog or drizzle (possibly freezing drizzle before temps warm in a few cool spots) to portion of the area after midnight towards morning across the southern valley and into lakes region of MN. Cold front Tuesday night will send temps below freezing overnight.
Accumulations will be limited to the higher elevations in the south and east.
152 AM EDT Tue Mar 24 2020 High pressure will build across the Great Lakes tonight which will bring dry conditions. A wave of low pressure moving into the Tennessee Valley on Tuesday afternoon and night will bring the next round of rain.
245 AM CDT Tue Mar 24 2020 Skies have become cloudy across much of the Mid-South early this morning with temperatures ranging from the upper 40s to the lower 60s. This activity is north of a warm front which currently extends across central Alabama and into extreme north Louisiana. The warm front will continue to move north today with more showers and thunderstorms developing later this morning. Some of these thunderstorms that develop north of the warm front could have large hail with them. Low pressure is expected to move along this warm front reaching western Arkansas by this afternoon and then moving out of west Tennessee by this evening. As this low passes through the region, there will be an increased risk of damaging winds as well as large hail.
Some fog and areas of drizzle are accompanying the stratus, but thankfully temperatures are above freezing where that is occurring so there aren't any issues with icy surfaces.
However, the warm front does not make it far enough north to bring any sfc-based instability.
346 AM EDT Tue Mar 24 2020 Low pressure will rapidly move east and away from northern New England today. High pressure will build in this afternoon and move away Wednesday.
Observations at Guadalupe Pass as well as The Bowl in Guadalupe Mountains National Park indicate winds have decreased below warning criteria, thus have gone ahead and cancelled the High Wind Warning a bit early this morning. While winds look to remain elevated across the higher terrain the next several days, High Winds look to be borderline in the near term, thus have foregone any additional wind headlines for the time being.
240 AM MDT Tue Mar 24 2020 Current surface map places low across southern Saskatchewan with warm front through the western Dakotas. but as with yesterday, models continue to have a hard time capturing the low level drying. Cold front settles in across the area tonight. Upper level flow becomes southwesterly as positive tilt trof sets up across the western CONUS.
May see some erosion from the southeast as ridge axis shifts east, but most of central Illinois will remain overcast through the night. With the low tracking so far south, instability will be limited and so only isolated thunderstorms are expected with this system. With the low level advection of moisture into the region, this appears to be a prolonged period of wet conditions, with showers and embedded thunderstorms. High pressure over the Midwest tonight will shift east away from the area while low pressure approaches the Ohio Valley on Tuesday. Models continue to shift south with the track of the low and resulting precip, and if trends continue to favor the southerly track the terminals may remain dry or only see a few sprinkles.
133 AM EDT Tue Mar 24 2020 Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb trough in the upper Great Lakes and another over the Pacific NW and another in CA. However, precipitation does look to start as rain and switch over to snow and possibly some freezing rain depending on where the warm nose lingers.
128 AM EDT Tue Mar 24 2020 High pressure builds in Tuesday. Despite passage of the low, low level moisture is expected to remain in place overnight, with the deck of stratus forecast to continue through most of the night. Tue night will see the upper flow amplify ahead of a compact, advancing Plains trough. High pressure Wed night will suppress precipitation, but the lack of rain will be short-lived.
222 AM CDT Tue Mar 24 2020 Showers/storms could linger for a few hours across southeast Kansas this morning, otherwise today should be dry with some residual clouds in the wake of the overnight activity possibly keeping some areas a bit cooler.
156 AM EDT Tue Mar 24 2020 High pressure building in from the midwest will brighten the sky today. A chilly rain could affect the southern half of the area later tonight and early Wednesday as low pressure passes well south of the state. A weak cold front will press down into the state from the north and then lay out west to east and become stationary late this week. This front will be the focus for multiple waves of low pressure to provide multiple opportunities for rain this weekend.
Stationary boundary just to our north currently will lift northward as a warm front as a low pressure system moves northeast off the high plains of west Texas into the central Plains today. Early this morning, light winds and good low level moisture will lead to areas of fog across the region with the highest probability and lowest visibilities from Tallahassee east to Valdosta and Cross City. Highs will be in the low to mid 80s.
Lows tonight in the low to middle 30s with exception of over the mountains. Tuesday will see rain/snow chances continue mainly across Carbon County early on before spreading eastward into the high plains in the afternoon.