Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
High pressure providing this nice weather will push east of the area tonight as a warm front lifts north through the region.
The flow aloft between an upper ridge to the north and Tropical Storm Cristobal to the south is northeasterly, which is steering the convection southwest.
417 PM EDT Sat Jun 6 2020 A cold front was located near the Ohio River late this afternoon, moving southeastward under weak west northwest flow aloft. With the cooler air mass, low temperatures will be a little more comfortable on Sunday morning. A cold front approaching from the north could aid development of a few thunderstorms late today.
Sunday will be a couple degrees cooler, with dew points a few degrees lower, resulting in heat indices in the 90s, which is below Heat Advisory criteria. Attention early to mid week is on The remnant of Tropical Storm Cristobal, which is forecast to track right across the area as a post-tropical cyclone.
406 PM EDT Sat Jun 6 2020 High pressure will build into the region tonight into Sunday.
1239 PM CDT Sat Jun 6 2020 A ridge of high pressure extending south out of Canada through the mid Mississippi Valley will shift east into the Great Lakes region and the Ohio Valley today through Sunday. Meanwhile, a strong upper level ridge currently over the Great Plains will drift east, and an anti-cyclonic circulation will cut off right over Missouri on Sunday morning. This is a couple of degrees warmer than the consensus of guidance, likely influenced by bias corrected guidance. However, the warmer solution makes sense given the strength of the upper level anti-cyclone.
352 PM CDT Sat Jun 6 2020 An upper level ridge remains firmly in place over the area at 20Z. The associated heat that has built beneath the ridge will not be ignored today, as temperatures have soared into the mid 90s for much of the area at mid-afternoon. Persistent southerly flow at the surface and in the low levels has allowed ample moisture to remain over the region. Conditions will stay warm and muggy through the overnight period with lows only falling into the low 70s. Tomorrow, the center of the ridge will move east of the area and temperatures/dew points are expected to be a touch cooler.
The 18Z KKEY RAOB sampled plenty of dry air throughout the lower troposphere. As Cristobal gains latitude, the low level ridging will gain westward ground across Florida. And yet, the lower tropospheric moisture will continue to struggle given the analysis of upstream satellite derived moisture products. If the intense band to the west of the Tortugas is going to make any more eastward progress, and needs to do it in the next six hours or so, before the low level ridging takes hold across the Straits.
Considerable mid level dry air, subsidence, and dry northeast low level flow, all on the western side of Tropical Storm Cristobal, will allow for even warmer temperatures tomorrow.
Showers look to decrease in coverage late this evening due to drying behind todayâs cold front. The next low pressure circulation is forecast to arrive tonight, which is likely to bring high elevation snow to north-central Idaho and west-central Montana. Northwest Montana may start Sunday free of showers, but the low will transition into western Montana and bring widespread showers by Sunday afternoon.
Aloft, the upper ridge has begun to build in across the area as Cristobal continues it's northward track through the GOM. Large scale subsidence will be prevalent across the area as the upper level ridge builds eastward ahead of Cristobal.
252 PM EDT Sat Jun 6 2020 A cold front slides across this evening and will be south of the area late tonight.
214 PM CDT Sat Jun 6 2020 The South Plains will remain positioned between a broad western trough and Tropical Storm Cristobal the next 24+ hours. This will keep a narrowing upper ridge axis in firm control of our weather locally.
146 PM CDT Sat Jun 6 2020 High pressure both at the surface and aloft continues to dominate the weather across Middle Tennessee, although the approach of Tropical Storm Cristobal is starting to have some effect on the weather pattern across the region. Temperatures today are soaring to near record readings, and the addition of dew points in the low to mid 70's across our western zones are pushing heat indices close to 100 degrees in these areas.
117 PM EDT Sat Jun 6 2020 Aviation - Gusty Northwest winds along the Lakeshore - Fair and Dry this Weekend, then Hot To Start The Workweek - Potent Cold front along as an Extratropical System Nears the Great lakes Region Mid Week - Gusty Northwest winds along the Lakeshore High Pressure will build over the region. - Fair and Dry this Weekend, then Hot To Start The Workweek With the high building over the area, mild weather will dominate through the first part of the upcoming week.
A few strong to severe storms formed this morning and this afternoon in the warm sector along and north of a advancing warm front.
An upper level ridge will continue over the region through Sunday, resulting in hot and dry weather with mostly clear skies.
320 PM CDT Sat Jun 6 2020 Currently looking at a low pressure system over eastern Montana/Wyoming, with a warm front extending from it along the South Dakota/Nebraska border. Scattered showers and thunderstorms have occurred in association with a warm front across a good portion of the area today, with just a couple reports of very small hail. The warm front slides north, allowing for very warm and moist air to move into the region. Temperatures rise into the 90s with dewpoints well into the 60s, which will allow for strong instability to develop before the cold front associated with the low reaches the area.
The Tennessee Valley region will remain between a high pressure ridge to the NW and Cristobal to the south. Subsidence from the ridge may serve to suppress convection across our area today, but a few storms that develop along a weak boundary to the south of the area could approach the far southern portions of the HUN CWA late in the afternoon. With sufficient breaks in the clouds and heating, we should be able to climb into the upper 80s to lower 90s once again, with heat index values climbing into the upper 90s, thanks to dewpoints in the lower 70s. The previously mentioned ridge will build eastward on Sunday keeping conditions dry, and temps a tad warmer reaching the lower 90s.
359 PM EDT Sat Jun 6 2020 High pressure will strengthen over the Great Lakes Region through the weekend. A strong upper level ridge will build over the region for the first part of the week bringing above normal temperatures.
151 PM MDT Sat Jun 6 2020 With the Tri-State area situated beneath a tightening height gradient between a deep upper level trough over the Western CONUS and a deep upper level ridge over the MS River Valley -- active/dynamic weather is anticipated through the remainder of the weekend.
As the storm moves out the subtropical ridge will again dominate our weather with east southeast winds and afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms.
The elevated southerly winds continuing will lead to a mild overnight with lows mostly in the lower 70s. The lee trough will remain fairly deep tomorrow and there will be a tight pressure gradient across the area.
219 PM EDT Sat Jun 6 2020 Breezy and less humid conditions will prevail tonight behind a diffuse cold front moving east of the area.
Temperatures might be a degree or two cooler than today with the mid-level ridge moving to the east and slightly lower 850 mb temperatures. Opted to increase dewpoints toward the higher end of guidance given the dew points today.
A low pressure system will exit the region today with noticeably cooler conditions persisting through the weekend.
The most favored areas for storm development will be near the higher terrain of northwest Arkansas and southeast Oklahoma.
At the same time, the main axis of an upper-level ridge will build into the Upper Mississippi Valley. The mostly clear skies won't last long as mid-level WAA will increase ahead of the ridge causing clouds to increase from west to east late tonight. Temperatures in the short term are expected to remain near normal with low temperatures tonight ranging from the middle 40s to the lower 50s and high temperatures on Sunday in the lower 60s along the lakeshore and 70s inland. Sunday Night Through Saturday Very interesting forecast challenge for the middle of the week, as the remnants of Tropical Storm Cristobal reacts with an unseasonably strong negatively tilted upper trough lifting northeast from the central Plains. The forecast is especially difficult because there will be phasing of a cold upper trough and a modified tropical system.
Temperatures in the low to mid 90s with heat indices between 100-105 are expected in the advisory area. Those outside of the advisory will see temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s with heat indices in the low to upper 90s. Upper level ridging and southerly surface flow, advecting in warm temperatures and moisture, have resulted in the hottest day of the year so far.
122 PM EDT Sat Jun 6 2020 A cold front over the Great Lakes today will move southeast and cross through the Mid Atlantic region tonight, leading in drier and slightly cooler air.
319 PM CDT Sat Jun 6 2020 Mid/upper-level ridge axis extends overhead and northward into the northern Plains this afternoon with scattered elevated convection just to the northwest of our CWA in a low-level warm- air advection regime. As of this writing the main cores have remained off to our west, generally moving northeast up the front side of the ridge.
1226 PM CDT Sat Jun 6 2020 A summertime high pressure system was building over the nations midsection this morning keeping conditions over the Ozarks warm and humid. Similar weather is expected for Sunday with highs back into the low 90s.
Showers continue to push onshore this morning as upper trough moves into the coastal waters today. especially across the southwest half of the forecast area nearest the upper trough. Showers continue into tomorrow, but chances for thunder will be less as the trough shifts inland to our south. An upper trough will bring unsettled conditions to the region this weekend.
951 PM EDT Sat Jun 6 2020 High pressure will strengthen over the Great Lakes Region through the weekend. A strong upper level ridge will build over the region for the first part of the week bringing above normal temperatures.
219 PM PDT Sat Jun 6 2020 Cooling trend continues today as the trough overhead prevails.
231 PM MST Sat Jun 6 2020 A low pressure system will exit the region today with noticeably cooler conditions persisting through the weekend.
High pressure both at the surface and aloft continues to dominate the weather across Middle Tennessee, although the approach of Tropical Storm Cristobal is starting to have some effect on the weather pattern across the region. Temperatures today are soaring to near record readings, and the addition of dew points in the low to mid 70's across our western zones are pushing heat indices close to 100 degrees in these areas.
Temperatures should fall to morning lows in the low to middle 70s. Aloft, the upper ridge has begun to build in across the area as Cristobal continues it's northward track through the GOM. Large scale subsidence will be prevalent across the area as the upper level ridge builds eastward ahead of Cristobal.
Much cooler today in the wake of yesterdays weather system.
Much cooler temperatures will persist through the weekend, along with widespread showers and a slight chance of thunderstorms for areas north of Cape Mendocino.
An upper level ridge remains firmly in place over the area at 20Z. The associated heat that has built beneath the ridge will not be ignored today, as temperatures have soared into the mid 90s for much of the area at mid-afternoon. Persistent southerly flow at the surface and in the low levels has allowed ample moisture to remain over the region. Conditions will stay warm and muggy through the overnight period with lows only falling into the low 70s. Tomorrow, the center of the ridge will move east of the area and temperatures/dew points are expected to be a touch cooler.
A cold front remains on track to pass through SE Oregon after midnight tonight and into SW Idaho in the early morning. Snow levels will drop to near 4500-5500 ft MSL this morning behind the cold front, allowing snow to accumulate above 6000 ft.
Temperatures will be cooler with highs only in the mid 60s to mid 70s.
1022 PM EDT Sat Jun 6 2020 High pressure will build into the region tonight into Sunday.
Look for lows to bottom out in the lower to mid 70s tonight with mostly clear skies. The flow aloft between an upper ridge to the north and Tropical Storm Cristobal to the south is northeasterly, which is steering the convection southwest.
718 PM CDT Sat Jun 6 2020 Convection from this morning has pretty much dissipated with the decrease in speed of the low-level jet as it moved out of the CWA. With the theta-e ridge nearby, I was a little hesitant to go completely dry tonight, considering what happened this morning, so I did go with some small POPs in our west late tonight.
445 PM MST Sat Jun 6 2020 Updated Aviation A low pressure system will exit the region today with noticeably cooler conditions persisting through the weekend.
634 PM EDT Sat Jun 6 2020 High pressure will strengthen over the Great Lakes Region through the weekend. A strong upper level ridge will build over the region for the first part of the week bringing above normal temperatures.
Early week warmer westerly to southwesterly winds and mainly clear skies providing ample insolation under a high angle sun will all work in unison to produce hot days.
Rain chances continuing through the overnight, with the highest PoPs from Orlando northward. Showers and thunderstorms continuing overnight, with the highest chances mainly north of Sebastian Inlet.
A few of these may produce some lightning or graupel considering low freezing levels.
Mid/upper-level ridge axis extends overhead and northward into the northern Plains this afternoon with scattered elevated convection just to the northwest of our CWA in a low-level warm- air advection regime. As of this writing the main cores have remained off to our west, generally moving northeast up the front side of the ridge.
814 PM EDT Sat Jun 6 2020 A cold front slides across this evening and will be south of the area late tonight.
750 PM EDT Sat Jun 6 2020 High pressure will build into the region tonight into Sunday.
/issued 214 PM CDT Sat Jun 6 2020/ The South Plains will remain positioned between a broad western trough and Tropical Storm Cristobal the next 24+ hours. This will keep a narrowing upper ridge axis in firm control of our weather locally.
742 PM EDT Sat Jun 6 2020 High pressure will strengthen over the Great Lakes Region through the weekend. A strong upper level ridge will build over the region for the first part of the week bringing above normal temperatures.
909 PM EDT Sat Jun 6 2020 A cold front will push south of the area this evening.
650 PM EDT Sat Jun 6 2020 Lack of daytime heating will erode any remaining cloud cover through the late evening while building high pressure ensures clear conditions through the overnight period. VFR conditions expected through the TAF period as the aforementioned high pressure holds across the area. Northeasterly winds will remain through Sunday as the high is centered north of the area. The air coming off the lakes along with a residual thermal trough (850mb temps mid around 7C) will keep temps moderated Sunday as highs reach only into the mid 70s for most locations.
This dry air is thanks to low to mid-level ridging encroaching from the east. Temperatures along the island chain are in the low to mid 80s with dew points in the upper 70s. Concerning the forecast for tonight, all forecast variables are on track for the Keys with only a slight chance for showers and thunderstorms along the island chain, given the aforementioned dry air and ridging.
Latest surface analysis shows warm front has pushed northward into northeastern Wyoming along with southwestern and south central South Dakota, with the boundary roughly located from the far northeastern corner of WY to the Black Hills then eastward to north of KPHP. On the South Dakota side 0-3km bulk shear will reach 40-50kts with the highest values currently in a narrow band south of the warm front to the southeast of the Black Hills. With the higher dewpoints and lower LCLs some QLCS tornadoes may occur with any bowing segments, especially along and near the warm front, however strong straight line winds are the most likely severe threat over western SD as well. On Sunday, the upper trough will remain to the west, while the moist/unstable sector will have largely pushed of the the east of our area.
113 AM EDT Sun Jun 7 2020 High pressure will provide pleasant weather conditions through Monday.
/issued 214 PM CDT Sat Jun 6 2020/ The South Plains will remain positioned between a broad western trough and Tropical Storm Cristobal the next 24+ hours. This will keep a narrowing upper ridge axis in firm control of our weather locally. After another very mild night, Monday should be hot as we get drier southwesterly flow in conjunction with a upper trough crossing the Rockies, and some subsidence-induced warming on the far western flank of TS Cristobal as it temporarily takes a northwest jog into Arkansas and far eastern Okla. in response to the trough.
Tonight Through Monday This afternoon, it has been fairly clear over Arkansas, as upper ridging extends from western Mexico into the Great Lakes Region. The ridge has kept Cristobal slow-moving, but this will erode over the next few days, allowing Cristobal to move onto the coast some time late Sunday. Cristobal will move around the periphery of the eroding ridge late Sunday and into Monday, and this will likely take it across western and/or Central Arkansas.
Windy and hot conditions for the short term period under the influence of upper level ridging from the south and leeside troughing over eastern Colorado. A tight gradient will persist through Sunday night with the highest wind speeds up to 30-40 mph during the afternoon hours due to the strongest heating of the day mixing boundary layer winds to the surface coupled with the deepening of the aforementioned leeside trough. Partly cloudy skies with high clouds spilling over the upper level ridge to the southwest remaining dry through the short term.
Upper ridging overhead begins to weaken tomorrow, however above normal temperatures will continue through the rest of this weekend and into Monday due to the expansion of the low- level thermal ridge.
Over the forecast area mid level ridging persisted between the two areas of low pressure. Surface obs indicated a low pressure system lifting through the northern high plains with lee troughing extending south through the central high plains. The relative area of high pressure aloft and a lack of forcing is expected to favor general subsidence across the forecast area. Lows tonight should again only fall into the lower and middle 70s thanks to southerly winds keeping the boundary layer mixed. Otherwise highs should again be in the 90s while the forecast area remains in between the remnants of Cristobal and the upper trough to the west.
104 AM EDT Sun Jun 7 2020 A strong ridge of high pressure over the Central Great Lakes will remain in place tonight and Sunday, leading to clear/mostly clear skies and light northeast winds. A warm front lifting north through the Western Great Lakes will allow for some mid/high clouds to spill over this evening. Northeasterly winds will remain through Sunday as the high is centered north of the area. The air coming off the lakes along with a residual thermal trough (850mb temps mid around 7C) will keep temps moderated Sunday as highs reach only into the mid 70s for most locations. The ridge axis will slide east into the western Great Lakes Sunday night allowing for a rapid warm up back into the low/mid 80s Monday.
(Today and tonight) Slightly cooler (or "less-hot") air will be drawn west into Oklahoma/north Texas today, ahead of the northward-moving Cristobal.
A few strong to severe storms formed this morning and this afternoon in the warm sector along and north of a advancing warm front. WPC suggested a flood risk across ncntl Nebraska Monday associated with a stalled Pacific cold front, strong winds aloft and precipitable water near 1.
High pressure will keep things quiet through Monday.
SHORT TERM (Today through Monday): The main issue in this portion of the forecast will be the impacts swell from Tropical Cyclone Cristobal will have on the coastal portions of Cameron, Willacy, and Kenedy counties. Aside from the impacts at the coast, dry and increasingly hot weather is likely across the BRO CWFA with Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley sandwiched between Cristobal to the east and 500 mb high pressure to the west.
High pressure both at the surface and aloft continues to dominate the weather across Middle Tennessee, although the approach of Tropical Storm Cristobal is starting to have some effect on the weather pattern across the region. Temperatures today are soaring to near record readings, and the addition of dew points in the low to mid 70's across our western zones are pushing heat indices close to 100 degrees in these areas. The low center should reach the Ozarks by Monday evening and will then gradually turn toward the NNE while developing a frontal system.
158 AM MDT Sun Jun 7 2020 With the Tri-State area situated beneath a tightening height gradient between a deep upper level trough over the Western CONUS and a deep upper level ridge over the MS River Valley -- active/dynamic weather is anticipated through the remainder of the weekend.
There will not be a great deal of weather to disrupt flight operations during the period with limited moisture in the low levels and a few ac and ci showing up as the period progresses due to easterly flow off the Atlantic building into the tropical circulation of Cristobal.
254 AM CDT Sun Jun 7 2020 H5 ridge will be over the area today, resulting in another dry mostly sunny day. Highs again into the lower 90s most everywhere.
346 AM EDT Sun Jun 7 2020 A cooler and drier airmass will settle over the area today with a chance of a few showers.
The axis of higher dewpoints that we saw along the KS/MO border region yesterday will be lower and shifted to the east as ridging builds into the region. North central Missouri will actually see even lower dewpoints and cooler airmass from the east dropping their heat indices into the 80s.
At the same time, the main axis of an upper-level ridge will build into the Upper Mississippi Valley. The mostly clear skies won't last long as mid-level WAA will increase ahead of the ridge causing clouds to increase from west to east late tonight. Temperatures in the short term are expected to remain near normal with low temperatures tonight ranging from the middle 40s to the lower 50s and high temperatures on Sunday in the lower 60s along the lakeshore and 70s inland.
331 AM EDT Sun Jun 7 2020 An upper level trough from Quebec crosses the area this morning.
1015 PM MST Sat Jun 6 2020 Updated Aviation A low pressure system will exit the region today with noticeably cooler conditions persisting through the weekend.
Temperatures in the low to mid 90s with heat indices between 100-105 are expected in the advisory area. Those outside of the advisory will see temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s with heat indices in the low to upper 90s. Upper level ridging and southerly surface flow, advecting in warm temperatures and moisture, have resulted in the hottest day of the year so far. Monday will be another warm day with temperatures in the low 90s and heat indices in the low to mid 90s, but we will start to see a significant pattern change. Remnants of Cristobal will be moving north toward MO, while a trough is moving east toward MO/KS.