Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
701 PM EST FRI MAR 4 2016 WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS OHIO THIS EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE OVER MINNESOTA MOVES SOUTHEAST. ON SATURDAY THE LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION AND ITS CENTER WILL REACH CENTRAL OHIO BY EVENING.
WEAK COLD FRONT HAS CLEARED MOST OF THE CWA EXCEPT FOR COLLINGSWORTH COUNTY TONIGHT. HIGH CLOUDS FILTERING IN BEHIND THE FRONT HAS SLOWED RADIATIONAL COOLING THIS EVENING EVEN WITH THE COOLER AIR IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE TAF SITES EARLY IN THE PERIOD BRINGING NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS BTWN 10 TO 20 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS THRU 05/08Z. WINDS WILL CALM OVERNIGHT BEFORE INCREASING FROM THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT AROUND 10 TO 20 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS AS A LEE SIDE TROUGH SETS UP ALONG THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES AFT 05/17Z. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE PANHANDLES THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE MOVING OFF TO THE EAST BY SATURDAY NIGHT. SLIGHTLY COOLER BUT CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS SATURDAY.
544 PM EST FRI MAR 4 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL TAKE CHARGE TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT RESULTING IN QUIET WEATHER. QUIET WEATHER WILL PREVAIL INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE WEST COAST RIDGE DOMINATES.
343 PM MST FRI MAR 4 2016 THE LAST DREGS OF A PASSING WEAK TROUGH WILL EXIT TO THE EAST WITH HIGH CLOUDS GIVING WAY TO CLEARING SKIES BEFORE MIDNIGHT. A LARGE AMPLITUDE TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE BRINGING A STRONG MOISTURE TAP FUELED BY A CLOSED LOW OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA.
UPPER RIDGE TO BUILD OVER THE FA FOR THIS WEEKEND. THIS SHOULD HELP BOOST TEMPERATURES WITH WARMEST VALUES OVER THE WEST WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES EASTWARD. MIXING AND CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES VERY MILD SATURDAY NIGHT WITH MINIMUMS A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF FREEZING.
1007 PM EST FRI MAR 4 2016 LOW PRESSURE WILL PULL AWAY FROM THE REGION TONIGHT WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ON SATURDAY.
CLOUDS HAVE STUCK AROUND A BIT LONGER TODAY IN THE WAKE OF YESTERDAYS TROUGH. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT HAS HELPED KEEP THE CLOUDS AROUND AS WELL BEHIND THE LOW.
630 PM EST FRI MAR 4 2016 A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY.
LATEST PROGS CONTINUE THE TREND OF DEEPENING THIS TROF A BIT THIS EVENING. MID LEVEL DRYING IN THE WAKE OF THE WAA MAY YIELD A PERIOD OF PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE BEFORE THE 850 LOW DROPS IN AND A SLIGHT COLDER AIR MASS SLIPS SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. NOT SEEING MUCH SNOW WRAPPING INTO THE LOW OVER MINNESOTA SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF THE INITIAL BAND. FREEZING DRIZZLE POTENTIAL MAY WARRANT THE ADVISORY FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THANKS TO A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS AND A DEEP TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA.
344 PM MST FRI MAR 4 2016 COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH BREEZY TO WINDY NORTH WINDS.
Southeast winds will continue for much of tonight, ahead of a cold front that will move into the area early Saturday, accompanied by a NNW wind shift. /issued 139 PM CST FRI MAR 4 2016/ Upper ridge over the area will keep the wx unseasonably warm.
606 PM EST FRI MAR 4 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT.
We had been keeping those chances to the northeast half, but now, given the closer proximity of the low, have to have some now for all but the area just south and west of BWG. Those clouds should help out some with temperatures, but our northeast counties may get below freezing ahead of the precip, causing some p-type issues. The split in the model camps, even the high-res camps, means we have to carry some of that mix wording. The cloud cover should keep us warm enough to keep from freezing rain, so will just go with a mix of rain and snow.
809 PM EST FRI MAR 4 2016 LOW PRESSURE WILL PULL AWAY FROM THE REGION TONIGHT WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ON SATURDAY.
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES WEAK LOW OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY WITH COLD FRONT DROPPING TO THE SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES PLACES RIDGE OVER AND JUST TO THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES WITH TROUGH PUSHING TOWARDS THE MIDWEST. MILD TEMPERATURES EXPECTED OVER THE AREA AS UPPER RIDGE GRADUALLY MOVES OVER. WARMER AIR CONTINUES TO PUSH IN BRINGING VERY MILD AND BREEZY CONDITIONS.
ARE INDICATING THAT THE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO DISSIPATE BY MID EVENING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE FOLLOWED CLOSER TO THE SLIGHTLY COOLER NAM TEMP GUIDANCE FOR TONIGHTS LOW TEMPS.
DRY COLD FRONT FOUND ENTERING THE NRN TX PANHANDLE AT 2 PM IS ON TRACK FOR A BIT EARLIER ARRIVAL THIS EVENING OVER THE REGION WHICH IS CAPTURED WELL BY THE RAPID UPDATE MODELS. CIRRUS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT FROM W-E AS TEMPORARY UA RIDGING/SUBSIDENCE MOVES THROUGH.
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE PANHANDLES THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE MOVING OFF TO THE EAST BY SATURDAY NIGHT. SLIGHTLY COOLER BUT CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS SATURDAY.
THE COLD FRONT THAT PASSED THROUGH SOUTHEAST WY AND WESTERN NE THIS MORNING STALLED BETWEEN LARAMIE AND RAWLINS. TEMPERATURES WERE ABOUT 5 DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME WITH 50S TO LOWER 60S. SATURDAY WILL BE DRY AND WARMER AS 700MB TEMPERATURES CLIMB TO 2-4 DEGREES CELSIUS WITH DOWNSLOPE WINDS.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY RAN SOUTH FROM THE LOW INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS. THUS LIGHT RAIN/SPRINKLES SHOULD BEGIN MOVING INTO THE HIGHWAY 20 CORRIDOR WEST OF DUBUQUE BETWEEN 4 AND 6 PM. SOME LINGERING WEAK FORCING MAY RESULT IN SOME DRIZZLE OR VERY PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THE HIGHWAY 20 CORRIDOR BEFORE ENDING.
947 PM EST FRI MAR 4 2016 LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE MID- ATLANTIC THROUGH TONIGHT.
759 PM EST FRI MAR 4 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTROL OUR WEATHER TONIGHT.
VERY WARM TEMPERATURES AND A GRADUAL DRYING TREND IS IN STORE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MEANDERS EASTWARD OVER NEW MEXICO. AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL SNEAK UNDER THE RIDGE ACROSS MEXICO. THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EASTWARD OVER NM. WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING OVER NM. MODELS ARE AGREEING THAT AN INVERTED TROUGH ORGANIZING OVER TEXAS WILL SLIDE WESTWARD UNDER THE HIGH OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. BUT IT WILL DEPEND HOW FAR NORTH THE INVERTED TROUGH WILL BE. IT LOOKS LIKE THE UPPER HIGH WILL SPLIT. DEPENDING ON WHERE THE HIGH CENTERS SET UP.
Parts of Oklahoma have taken a pounding of rain yesterday into early this morning north and northwest of the low. Convection is expected to continue for the remainder of the early morning hours into today and tonight as the low pressure system slowly begins to track eastward from Oklahoma into Arkansas. There will likely be a sharp precipitation gradient across our forecast area with the best rainfall expected to occur just north of the low track across southern Missouri. Our northwest CWA will have the lowest precipitation amounts which will probably be around an inch or less. As the low begins to slowly progress eastward and then northeastward on Friday, precipitation will gradually end on the western edges of this system and then shift east.
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA FRIDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON BEGINNING TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN TO THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND FOR SUNNIER AND WARMER WEATHER.
AN UPPER LOW OFF THE B. COAST PHASES WITH A WEAKER PACIFIC TROUGH TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE STATE THIS WEEKEND.
AN EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW COMBINED WITH LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE FAR EAST HAS KEPT TEMPEATURES IN THE LOWER 60S SO FAR TODAY.
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EASTWARD THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THE RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED NEAR THE ARIZONA/NEW MEXICO BORDER.
WITH PRONOUNCED PROGGED LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST WINDS ADVECTING A LOW LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE AXIS EAST OF INTERSTATE 25. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST INTO THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA IN THE WELL PRONOUNCED LOW AND MID LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE AXIS. LOOKS LIKE A DRIER AND WARMER DAY AS MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES PROGGED TO WARM ENOUGH TO PROVIDE ENOUGH CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE MAY BE ENOUGH LIFT TO GENERATE ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND NORTH OF A DOUGLAS TO ALLIANCE LINE WHERE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION WILL BE MINIMIZED. WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT SHOULD LIMIT CONVECTIVE INITIATION ALONG THE COLD FRONT FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS OUR COUNTIES.
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE. MORNING 12Z ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY IN PLACE THROUGH THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE. 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE A BIT WARMER THIS MORNING.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER THURSDAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FLATTENS OUT.
THE HIGH MOISTURE EXTENDS WESTWARD ALL THE WAY TO THE RIO GRANDE. THE HIGHER POPS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES WHERE THE BEST MOISTURE IS EXPECTED AND ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES.
GOES SOUNDER OF PRECIPITABLE WATER SHOWS DRIER AIR LOCATED OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO OFF THE LOWER TEXAS COAST. THINK THAT THIS LOWER THETA-E AIR MASS WILL MOVE INTO THE COASTAL PLAINS FOR THIS EVENING AND REDUCE RAIN CHANCES.
WILL HAVE TO WATCH SHORT RANGE MODEL TRENDS TO SEE IF THERE IS ANY POSSIBILITY OF MCS THAT SHOULD BE NORTHEAST OF OUR AREA PUSHES ANY WIND OR COOLER AIR INTO THE AREA (SIMILAR TO A FEW WEEKS AGO) WHICH COULD IMPACT HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST. UPPER RIDGING STARTS TO SPREAD OVER THE AREA ALLOWING 850MB TEMPERATURES TO WARM ABOUT 6-9F FROM THURSDAYS VALUES.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BRING HOT WEATHER TO THE VALLEYS. A SHALLOW MARINE LAYER WILL KEEP COASTAL AREAS COOLER WITH LOW CLOUDS LINGERING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AT THE BEACHES.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AND SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THIS FEATURE SHOULD RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AS A NEW MCS DEVELOPS ACROSS THE WESTERN DAKOTAS.
THE HEAVIEST RAIN HAS BECOME ESTABLISHED TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE LOW CENTER. MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL BECOME REESTABLISHED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. LEADING TO MUCH WARMER AND MORE HUMID WEATHER ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS.
HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 80S ACROSS NORTHEAST ARKANSAS TO THE LOWER 90S ACROSS NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI.
1258 PM CDT THU JUN 18 2015 THE SHORT TERM CONCERNS ARE THE CHANCE AND COVERAGE OF POSSIBLE CONVECTION ALONG SECONDARY COLD FRONT DROPPING OVER THE AREA TODAY. THE NORTHERN SYSTEM IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT AND IS PROGGED TO DROP SOUTH DURING THE LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON. GENERATED BY ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A WARM FRONT. THE AFTERNOON ROUND OF CONVECTION WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT TO THE WEST OVER THE DAKOTAS.
STACKED HIGH PRESSURE HAS SHIFTED EASTWARD, ALLOWING LOW LEVEL WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST. OVERNIGHT, LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S.
UPPER HIGH CONTINUES OVERHEAD TO SUPPRESS MUCH OF THE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. THE UPPER HIGH SHOULD STRENGTHEN SOME OVER THE WEEKEND AND END MOST ANY THREAT OF A THUNDERSTORM.
BY THIS AFTERNOON COULD SEE SOME STORMS DEVELOP OVER THE BLACK HILLS AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN NORTHEASTERN WYOMING AND EXTREME FAR NORTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA.
WEAK TROUGHING SETTLES OVER THE AREA LOWERING HEIGHTS.
Friday will be cooler and the day to watch for scattered showers and thunderstorms across the northern mountains, and gusty winds combining with low relative humidity levels. A small chance of showers and thunderstorms will return for the beginning of the next work week as a weak upper level low moves over the Inland Northwest. Temperatures will remain warmer than normal for this time of year. A stronger cold front will move across the region late tonight, which will keep winds breezy through Friday morning.
SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS BEEN CONSIDERABLY MUTED THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR THROUGH THE LOWER TO MID LEVELS. THE MAIN EXCEPTION IS THERE IS SOME INDICATION THAT THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY LATE THIS WEEKEND AS A MID LATITUDE TROUGH RIDES EASTWARD THROUGH THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. RIDGING ACROSS FLORIDA WILL GENERALLY PERSIST THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE MARINE FORECAST. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO LULL SOMEWHAT LATE THIS WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE MOMENTARILY WEAKENS.
654 PM EDT THU JUN 18 2015 SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL AFFECT THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM EASTERN CANADA. IT IS THIS AREA WHERE WE STILL EXPECT TO SEE SOME INITIAL SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE STORMS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING AS THERE IS SOME CONVERGENCE ALONG THETA E RIDGE SETTING UP HERE. HIGH PRESSURE WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS MOVES IN BRIEFLY FOR FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A GOOD SET UP FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH A LOW AMPLITUDE LARGE SCALE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE AREA WITH WEST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
MODELS DEVELOP A 30+ KT LLJ AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
235 PM MDT THU JUN 18 2015 A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO COLORADO FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. IT WILL BE WEAK AND SHORT LIVED AND LIKELY CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN. SKIES WILL CLEAR FRIDAY NIGHT WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER MINIMUM TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT.
MAINLY IN THE LOWER 70S. HIGHS WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH A RANGE FROM THE UPPER 80S NEAR THE TN/KY BORDER TO LOWER 90S NEAR THE TN/AL BORDER. AS HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CNTRL U. THE NEXT BEST CHANCE OF SHWRS/TSTMS ACROSS THE ENTIRE MID STATE WILL BE AS THE END OF NEXT WORK WEEK APPROACHES AS RIDGING INFLUENCES SFC/ALOFT FINALLY BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN.
606 PM EDT THU JUN 18 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT BEFORE EXITING THE COAST EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
339 PM EDT THU JUN 18 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OUT OF QUEBEC AND CROSS MAINE TONIGHT.
A dry cold front will produce cooler conditions Friday, but breezy conditions most areas from Orofino and Grangeville eastward across western Montana.
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING THEN WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY CROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY.
AS SUCH, DELTA BREEZE INFLUENCED LOCATIONS ARE RUNNING A BIT COOLER THAN YESTERDAY, WHEREAS LOCATIONS FARTHER AWAY ARE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY.
305 PM EDT THU JUN 18 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT BEFORE EXITING THE COAST EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
AND EMERGE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS BY LATE AFTERNOON. OTHER STORMS COULD MOVE EAST/SOUTHEAST OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE WEST. HEIGHTS RISE FRIDAY IN RESPONSE TO EXPANDING UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
VERY DRY AIR WILL ARRIVE TONIGHT BEHIND A SECONDARY COLD FRONT.
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.
256 PM EDT THU JUN 18 2015 SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND FRIDAY AS A WARM FRONT SLOWLY MOVES NORTH TODAY AND THEN RETURNS SOUTH AS A COLD FRONT FRIDAY.
RIDGING HAS PUSHED OFFSHORE. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER/MID 70S INLAND TO THE UPPER 70S COAST. THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. WITH THE MID/UPPER RIDGE FLATTENING SLIGHTLY AND A BIT MORE STORM COVERAGE. WITH DURATION OF THE HIGHER HEAT INDICES SHORT AND AT MARGINAL ADVISORY LEVELS.
253 PM EDT THU JUN 18 2015 AS EXPECTED THERE HAS BEEN MORE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TODAY AS THE GRIP OF HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO LOOSEN. TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL BE COOLER AGAIN. /ISSUED 336 AM EDT THU JUN 18 2015/ UPPER RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN SUCH A DOMINANT FEATURE RECENTLY.
148 PM EDT THU JUN 18 2015 LOW PRESSURE ACROSS WISCONSIN THIS MORNING WILL TRACK INTO LOWER ONTARIO TODAY TAKING FIRST A WARM FRONT NORTH OVER THE AREA DURING THE DAY TODAY AND THEN BRING THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BRIEFLY OVER THE LOWER LAKES FOR FRIDAY.
THERE MAY BE A COUPLE SHOWERS ALONG WITH A QUICK WIND SHIFT THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AS A BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH EAST TO WEST UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE. THUS KEPT POPS ON THE LOW END. A COOLER/DRIER AIRMASS WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. WITH LOWS A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN SEASONAL NORMALS TONIGHT. EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES UNDER HIGH PRESSURE FRIDAY. EXCEPT FOR NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN WHERE ONSHORE WINDS WILL KEEP IT COOLER.
305 PM EDT THU JUN 18 2015 SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT INTO THIS EVENING WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS POSING A THREAT. TROPICAL PLUME FROM REMNANTS OF TS BILL BRING REINTRODUCED INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE MAIN COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. REMNANTS OF TS BILL WILL BE MOVING INTO ARKANSAS BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGH PRESSURE HELPING SLOW ITS PROGRESS NORTH AND EVENTUALLY HELP IN TURNING MORE EAST INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.
SKIES HAVE BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY IN ALL AREAS BUT TEMPS REMAIN ON THE COOLER SIDE.
REMNANTS OF BILL AND ITS ASSOCIATED TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO CHIP AWAY AT DEEP LAYER RIDGE OVER FLORIDA AS IT MOVES TOWARDS THE MID ATLANTIC THIS WEEKEND. WITH CONTINUED GENERAL RIDGING THROUGHOUT THE TROPOSPHERE. HEAT SHOULD CONTINUE TO PERSIST WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S COAST TO MID 90S INTERIOR.
336 PM EDT THU JUN 18 2015 SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL AFFECT THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM EASTERN CANADA. IT IS THIS AREA WHERE WE STILL EXPECT TO SEE SOME INITIAL SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE STORMS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING AS THERE IS SOME CONVERGENCE ALONG THETA E RIDGE SETTING UP HERE. HIGH PRESSURE WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS MOVES IN BRIEFLY FOR FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A GOOD SET UP FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING.
AT THIS POINT FAVORED SEVERE POTENTIAL LOOKS TO BE ACROSS THE SOUTH HOWEVER WITH NORTHWARD EXTENDING TROUGH FROM THE LOW AND LOW LEVEL JET CONVERGENCE COULD SEE STRONG STORMS ABOUT ANYWHERE.
THE REGION REMAINS TRAPPED BETWEEN DRIER AIR TRYING TO MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AND DRIER AIR TO THE EAST MOVING UNDER THE HIGH PRESSURE.
THERE ARE TWO NEW AREAS ALREADY GUSTING OUT A BIT INTO WARMER AREAS FROM BROADDUS TO NEAR JOAQUIN IN TX AND FROM RED RIVER MARINA SOUTH.
Otherwise, high pressure to the west will begin to be more dominate.
111 PM CDT THU JUN 18 2015 COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MAKE PROGRESS INTO OUR FAR SOUTHERN CWA BUT SHOULD EVENTUALLY STALL ACROSS NORTHERN MO AND CENTRAL IL. THE FAR SOUTH WAS RIGHT ON THE EDGE OF WHERE THE HIGHER CAPE/PWATS WERE LOCATED AND NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDED JUST SOUTH OF MCDONOUGH COUNTY AND ON INTO EASTERN IL. A COLD FRONT IS PUSHING EAST THROUGH THE CWA AS OF EARLY THIS MORNING.
TROPICAL HUMIDITY AGAIN TODAY WITH DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 70S WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. WITH MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM BILL FLOWING NORTHEASTWARD AND A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPPING INTO THE NORTHWEST KILX CWA TODAY.
446 AM EST MON DEC 28 2015 A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL EJECT NORTHEAST FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT. FOCUS IS ON DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER TEXAS WHICH EJECTS NE INTO THE MID MS VLY THIS AFTN AND INTO THE THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT/TUESDAY. SFC WAVE STACKED WITH ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL LOW TO TRACK NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY TUESDAY. SFC WAVE TO TRACK INTO THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY WITH COLD FRONT PASSING EAST THRU ILN/S FA LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY.
Dew points are currently around the freezing mark, or below, from about the Chico area northward - so this area is likely to at least see some snow mix in with rain and has the best chance of seeing some accumulating snow down to the valley floor.
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SAG SLOWLY SOUTHWARD, BRINGING COOLER READINGS OVER ROUGHLY THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA. EVEN THOUGH THE FRONT IS STILL EXPECTED TO BECOME STATIONARY LATER TONIGHT AND MOVE BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT, TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY COOL IN AREAS WHERE WINDS REMAIN NORTH TO NORTHEAST. IN THE MEANTIME, AN AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL IS MAKING ITS WAY NORTHWARD ACROSS WESTERN PARTS OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE, WITH IFR CIGS AT BNA AND CKV NOW THAT THE WARM FRONT IS LOCATED JUST TO THE SOUTH OF BNA.
LOW WINDS WILL INCREASE AFTER 16Z WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENING AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
THOUGH THERE HAVE BEEN INTERMITTENT REPORTS OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF WICHITA METRO AREA SOUTHWARD ALONG I-35 CORRIDOR. POTENT UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS SW TEXAS. ALL THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS CONVERGING ON A SIMILAR SOLUTION OF MOVING UPPER LOW ACROSS NORTHERN TEXAS INTO THE ARKLATEX BY MONDAY MORNING. DELINEATION BETWEEN LIQUID-FREEZING AND FROZEN WILL BE COMPACT. DUE TO UPPER LOW PASSAGE. SF A TROUGH POSITIONED ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AND THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS WILL MAINTAIN ITS POSITION AND CONTINUE TO SEND WEAK WAVES THROUGH THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. THE ONLY SLIGHTLY IMPACT FOR KANSAS WILL BE A CHANGE IN WIND DIRECTION AND REINFORCING COOLER AIR.
1255 AM EST MON DEC 28 2015 A COLD FRONT SLIPS SOUTH OF THE AREA AND WEAKENS OVERNIGHT. A NEW COLD FRONT OCCLUDES THIS FRONT ON MONDAY NIGHT.
306 AM EST MON DEC 28 2015 A BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TODAY. A NEW COLD FRONT OCCLUDES THIS FRONT ON MONDAY NIGHT.
205 AM EST MON DEC 28 2015 THERE ARE ONLY A FEW WEAK ECHOES ON KBYX RADAR TRAVELING QUICKLY THROUGH THE ATLANTIC WATERS SOUTH/SOUTHWEST OF THE LOWER KEYS EARLY THIS MORNING. AS THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE GETS SHUNTED BY THE CYCLONIC SYSTEM APPROACHING THE GREAT LAKES OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. THE HIGH PRESSURE AXIS REMAINS ALIGNED ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE RIDGING AND HIGH PRESSURE NEARBY. A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH DIGS EAST OF THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTY.
EXPECT THIS BACK EDGE TO LARGELY BE OUT OF THESE VALLEYS BY OR SHORTLY AFTER 10 PM, AND SHOULD BE ABLE TO ALLOW THE HIGHLIGHTS TO EXPIRE AT THAT TIME.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER COMPARED TO YESTERDAY AS UPPER LEVEL WINDS BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY FOR A TIME. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA EARLY ON TUESDAY RESULTING IN HIGHS DROPPING BACK INTO THE TEENS.
THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER CENTRAL TEXAS WILL LIFT NORTHEAST INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA. THE GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PULLS AWAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT ACROSS THE REGION WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S ACROSS THE PLAINS. MOZLEY NEXT UPPER TROUGH SWINGS EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES ON TUESDAY. AND WILL KEEP MOST POPS CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN. LARGE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WRN U. S WITH RESIDUAL LOW PRESSURE TRAPPED UNDER THE RIDGE SOMEWHERE OVER THE ROCKIES.
BRINGING RELATIVELY LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
TRACK AND INTENSITY OF SOUTHERN PLAINS STORM SYSTEM AND RESULTANT SNOWFALL WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE AS THE SYSTEM LIFTS ACROSS THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY ON MONDAY. ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH COMING ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT MAY ALSO TRIGGER SOME LIGHT SNOW IN FAR SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA. LESS ACTIVE WEATHER BUT REMAINING COLD THROUGH THE PERIOD AS MEAN TROUGH STAYS OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE NATION AND AREA CONTINUES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF NORTHWEST FLOW. TODAYS MODELS ALSO SHOW LESS RIDGE DEVELOPMENT IN THE WEST COMPARED TO YESTERDAY.
451 AM EST MON DEC 28 2015 A COLD FRONT TO OUR NORTH WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS THIS EVENING. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY.
and this will continue to spread northeastward as the upper low begins to lift. 2 inches as freezing line is likely to remain nearly stationary.
DRY CONDITIONS WITH WARMER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL TODAY.
A WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING LIGHT SCATTERED SHOWERS TO WESTERN WASHINGTON THIS EVENING.
1003 PM MST SUN DEC 27 2015 WIDESPREAD SNOW COVER AND AN OVERHEAD RIDGE WERE CREATING COMPLEX TEMPERATURE PATTERNS TODAY.
STILL EXPECT TO SEE LOWS TONIGHT SOME 5 TO 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN THIS MORNING. SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN TONIGHT AS THE AIRMASS CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MODERATE. CLOUD COVER WILL MAKE FOR A LITTLE BIT WARMER OVERNIGHT.
A LINE OF SHRA/TSRA WILL MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.