Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Upper low over northeast Montana this afternoon with unusually cold air aloft over the southern part of the state with instability triggering shower activity with a few lightning strikes. Axis of colder air aloft lingers through the night into Saturday before the low begins a more pronounced lift northward into Saskatchewan. Since diurnal heating is playing a role in the convection expect a decrease this evening with best chance for precipitation closest to the low centering on Musselshell and Rosebud counties.
741 PM EDT Fri Jun 21 2019 High pressure will ridge into the area from central Ontario into Saturday night.
By early Saturday, deep ridging settles near the FL peninsula, continuing westerly flow across the area.
Another clear and cool night will lead to low temperatures 5-10 degrees below normal, placing mountain valleys around freezing Saturday morning.
231 AM EDT Sat Jun 22 2019 A ridge of high pressure over the Great Lakes will build slowly eastward into Pennsylvania this weekend. This high pressure system will bring low humidity levels and plenty of sunshine to the Keystone state this weekend.
257 AM EDT Sat Jun 22 2019 Low pressure will stall over the eastern Maritimes through the weekend.
257 AM MDT Sat Jun 22 2019 Stacked surface and upper low was moving NE into Saskatchewan north of Scobey, MT early this morning. Wrap around rain on the west and south side of this low will move through NE Montana today as this low lifts to the north. Weak high pressure tonight and Sunday morning will allow for mainly dry weather. Zonal flow aloft on Sunday will bring warmer air into the forecast area.
A broad upper level trough spinning over the northern Rockies has stalled the boundary, stretching northeast from the Moab area, mainly along and north of the I-70 corridor. It is summer, right?? The next wave of energy will get things moving again this evening, as the base of the trough moves over the Great Basin. Expect unseasonably cool temperatures to blanket the entire forecast area Saturday and drop a few degrees cooler Saturday night.
High pressure anchored over the region will sustain this stretch of dry and stable conditions through the first half of the weekend. This will produce mainly clear skies with occasional thin cirrus from convection passing along warm front to the south, light easterly flow and low humidity. Clouds and moisture will begin increasing late in the day Sunday as the surface warm front draped from the Midwest into the Ohio Valley begins lifting northward behind departing high pressure and approaching mid level wave over the central Plains.
330 AM EDT Sat Jun 22 2019 An expansive subtropical anticyclone will remain prominent from the northern Carribean Sea through the Gulf of Mexico. The mid-level ridge will shift into the Gulf of Mexico as troughing progresses from the Eastern Seaboard into the western Atlantic. Surface ridging should remain in place as low-level moisture gradually increases.
This cooler airmass will also help to deter any thunderstorms from becoming severe.
At the surface, high pressure was located over Lake Superior with ridging across much of the area. The high pressure will remain anchored over Lake Superior tonight which will keep the dry, easterly flow pushing across much of the forecast area. Not much change on Saturday as the high is still over Lake Superior feeding the dry air into the region. Saturday night finds the high pressure moving to the eastern Great Lakes. This allows a surface trof to move into the center of the region.
For this Evening and Tonight, outflow boundaries from this MCS and southwest boundary layer flow trying to pull warm front north.
However, large scale ascent beginning to the west of the forecast area heralding approach of Great Basin trough.
109 AM EDT Sat Jun 22 2019 High pressure will ridge into the area from central Ontario into Saturday night. The high will then be nudged eastward as low pressure develops over the upper Midwest on Sunday.
Currently a weak front resides over the eastern part of the state, with an upper low over south central Canada. Meanwhile, a trof is pushing through the Western Great Basin, and should eject into the plains late in the weekend. For today, a wave ahead of that trof should move across the CWA, with scattered showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms. Temperatures will slowly warm into mid week as upper level ridging establishes itself.
Plenty of sun this afternoon, with thin cu developing in the cooler air aloft. Upper ridging will be the dominant feature through Sunday and maintain dry conditions.
Deep low pressure across northeast Montana and southern Saskatchewan early this morning will continue to slowly propagate north-northeast through the day. However, cannot rule out funnel clouds across the northwest and far north central given the proximity to the low.
350 AM EDT Sat Jun 22 2019 High pressure taking control for the weekend will allow for sunny skies and quiet weather.
Tonight and Saturday Beautiful summer weather will continue at least through Saturday, as high pressure hangs on over the Western Great Lakes.
This troughing, along with an increase in moisture, will result in an increase in shower and thunderstorm activity each day through the week. High pressure over the region will keep west to northwest winds in place over the waters, with an enhanced sea breeze component developing along the coast each afternoon.
Chance for showers/t-storms later tonight will diminish as the surface front/trough dissipates as it moves into Minnesota Saturday will see drier airmass spread thru central ND into DVL basin. For the day on Sunday, models are in good agreement regarding the low, which will be located in eastern Saskatchewan and slowly move further to the northeast. As the low continues to track into northern Manitoba, meridional flow aloft continues over the area.
An unseasonably deep and cool upper trough remains situated across the northern Rockies this evening, with the associated low level baroclinic zone stretching across southeast Utah. Otherwise a much cooler airmass has overspread the majority of the forecast area, with max temps today running close to 20 degrees below climo across northern Utah.
1155 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2019 Water vapor imagery showing a low amplitude ridge over the eastern CONUS. Upstream a broad deeply amplified trough prevailed over the western half of the country with a strong embedded circulation centered over eastern MT. Attendant cold front is progged to to move across the Dakotas/NE and induce convection along the boundary. The cold front is progged to become quasi-stationary on Saturday and meander in the vicinity of the CWA through Sunday.
/Pelatti 00Z TAFS: Isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible but will be short-lived and likely confined to the higher terrain north of TAF sites until 06Z Saturday today and again tomorrow after 21Z Saturday.
1057 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2019 Low cloud cover will continue to increase for most locations this afternoon as daytime heating causes mixing of the high dew point air near the surface. On the synoptic scale, a deep trough is situated over the northern Rockies, with a weak ridge over the Plains. For the weekend, the trough over the Rockies will move east over the Plains, bringing additional rounds of rain. Currently Saturday evening looks to be the timeframe with the highest chances for additional showers and thunderstorms. Temperatures will remain cooler than normal with plenty of cloud cover. Temperatures will steadily rise through mid week, as heights increase and a ridge of high pressure slowly builds.
Upper trough axis will be exiting the region today with only some token PoPs over the Island Park area to Rexburg and maybe extending to Driggs this afternoon and evening. With the upper trough to the east on Sunday, we will begin to see a transition to a dry zonal flow with only slight chances of any precip along the Montana border.
Upper low pressure over northern Utah and southern Idaho this morning. Upper low tracks into northwest Colorado this afternoon. Finally begin to dry out Sunday night as upper low moves into western Kansas with ridging building back into Wyoming.
958 AM EDT Sat Jun 22 2019 A stationary front will remain stalled to our southwest throughout the weekend as high pressure slides through the Great Lakes down through the Mid-Atlantic and offshore by Sunday.
644 AM EDT Sat Jun 22 2019 A ridge of high pressure over the Great Lakes will build slowly eastward into Pennsylvania this weekend.
707 AM EDT Sat Jun 22 2019 High pressure taking control for the weekend will allow for sunny skies and quiet weather.
Upper level low over eastern Montana will move northward into Saskatchewan today with areas of rain continuing across much of the state. Updated 532 AM MDT Sat Jun 22 2019 (22/12Z TAFs) Upper level closed low over Montana/Saskatchewan border moves northward today with a moist northwest flow aloft prevailing over Montana through Sunday morning. mpj /ISSUED 532 AM MDT Sat Jun 22 2019/ Upper level low currently over northeastern Montana will move northward into Canada today.
There is an upper level ridge that builds over the Mid-South today, however, our area is on the edge of this and with the heat and humidity there can be some thunderstorms that develop this afternoon. Sunday we begin to transfer to more southwest flow aloft and at the surface a cold front begins to move into the area.
534 AM EDT Sat Jun 22 2019 A ridge of high pressure over the Great Lakes will build slowly eastward into Pennsylvania this weekend.
The low level inversion strengthens today and the chances of getting anything including showers will be quite small.
709 AM EDT Sat Jun 22 2019 High pressure taking control for the weekend will allow for sunny skies and quiet weather.
637 AM CDT Sat Jun 22 2019 Based on observed winds this morning across northwest North Dakota, did increase winds for the remainder of the day towards the higher edge of the forecast envelope across the west and most of the central. Deep low pressure across northeast Montana and southern Saskatchewan early this morning will continue to slowly propagate north-northeast through the day. However, cannot rule out funnel clouds across the northwest and far north central given the proximity to the low.
Its possible that the low level moisture could work with some modest mid level lapse rates to produce a few sprinkles this morning but confidence isnt too high so have kept things dry for now. Shower and thunderstorm activity increases across the far west and southwest as a weather disturbance approaches ahead of an upper level trough. Some mid level moisture moves in from the west beneath the base of the upper trough during the afternoon hours supporting at least a mention of thunder. Dry weather is expected after midnight as moisture and the upper trough axis moves east of the area. High temperatures in the low 60s to low 70s.
/issued 330 AM EDT Sat Jun 22 2019/ An expansive subtropical anticyclone will remain prominent from the northern Carribean Sea through the Gulf of Mexico. The mid-level ridge will shift into the Gulf of Mexico as troughing progresses from the Eastern Seaboard into the western Atlantic. Surface ridging should remain in place as low-level moisture gradually increases.
The cloud cover should thin out later this morning, and this along with an upper level ridge over our area and southwesterly surface winds will lead to warmer high temperatures today. GKS A nocturnal MCS may be moving through our forecast area Sunday morning with additional convection likely during the afternoon and evening as an upper level trough approaches along with an associated cold front which will move eastward through our forecast area Sunday night. High temperatures will be slightly cooler on Sunday due to increased cloud cover, precipitation, and lowering upper level heights.
By evening, a weak cold front will drop down into north Texas, and intersect the bulging dryline.
555 AM EDT Sat Jun 22 2019 Low pressure will stall over the eastern Maritimes through the weekend.
Dry and comfortable conditions expected with high pressure in control. Plenty of sun this afternoon, with thin cu developing in the cooler air aloft. Upper ridging will be the dominant feature through Sunday and maintain dry conditions.
1000 AM EDT Sat Jun 22 2019 A ridge of high pressure over the Great Lakes will build slowly eastward into Pennsylvania this weekend.
322 AM MDT Sat Jun 22 2019 Upper level low over eastern Montana will move northward into Saskatchewan today with areas of rain continuing across much of the state. Upper level low currently over northeastern Montana will move northward into Canada today.
443 AM CDT Sat Jun 22 2019 Forecast remains fairly uncertain through the weekend as precipitation chances will be driven by a cold front and mesoscale features that models typically have a hard time resolving. The aforementioned cold front was making slow progress southward and was located near a Tucumcari, NM to Guymon, OK to southeast Kansas line as of 4 am. After sunset, models try to drop the front south again into Sunday morning but surface flow starts to veer as the trough starts to approach from the west which will quickly mix any surface moisture east of the forecast area through the day Sunday.
848 AM MDT Sat Jun 22 2019 900AM UPDATE: low pressure system continues to evolve. GAH PREVIOUS MORNING DISCUSSION: Stacked surface and upper low was moving NE into Saskatchewan north of Scobey, MT early this morning. Wrap around rain on the west and south side of this low will move through NE Montana today as this low lifts to the north. Weak high pressure tonight and Sunday morning will allow for mainly dry weather. Zonal flow aloft on Sunday will bring warmer air into the forecast area.
expect a cold front to approach from the northwest. helping to keep high temperatures in the lower 70s to lower 80s along with some scattered thunderstorm activity. expect an upper level disturbance associated with the trough to our west to cross the plains. Showers and thunderstorms should linger across portions of the local area on Sunday as continued weak forcing is realized from the longwave trough to our west crossing the area. Once this trough is to our east.
Upper level low over eastern Montana will move northward into Saskatchewan today with areas of rain continuing across much of the state. Upper level low currently over northeastern Montana will move northward into Canada today.
Deep layer ridging centered over the Yucatan Peninsula supports a low level ridge axis stretching west across Florida.
1039 AM EDT Sat Jun 22 2019 High pressure taking control for the weekend will allow for sunny skies and quiet weather.
Additional showers and storms will likely form later this afternoon to our west along a cold front, with these storms moving into northeast Oklahoma this evening.
Therefore, the highest probability of storms Sunday afternoon and evening is across the southeast half of our forecast area.
Appears best focus for severe weather will be over far northern/western Oklahoma (closer to dryline/cold front) and over southeast Oklahoma (mentioned above).
214 PM EDT Sat Jun 22 2019 High pressure will gradually build down into the Mid Atlantic region into Sunday morning, then slides off the coast Sunday afternoon into Sunday night.
Westerly flow on the backside aiding mixing this afternoon, with sunshine allowing for much warmer temperatures. Readings aloft are cooler as well, which should limit temperatures a tad despite more sunshine.
During the afternoon on Sunday, upper level winds increase and a negatively tilted upper trough moves across the region and interacts with the unstable airmass.
249 PM EDT Sat Jun 22 2019 High pressure over the central Great Lakes will build across New York state and Pennsylvania on Sunday.
It will be a little warmer than today since the morning cloud cover will not be as extensive.
Upper level low over eastern Montana will move northward into Saskatchewan today with areas of rain continuing across much of the state. Updated 1140 AM MDT Sat Jun 22 2019 (22/18Z TAFs) Drier air is gradually eroding clouds from the northwest as an upper level closed low moves further away to the east of our area terminals. /ISSUED 532 AM MDT Sat Jun 22 2019/ Upper level low currently over northeastern Montana will move northward into Canada today.
239 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2019 (Tonight and Sunday) An upper level trough continues to approach the area from the west. The upper trough has also allowed deeper gulf moisture to surge north into West Central Texas this afternoon as evident by dewpoint temperatures in the lower 70s. By tomorrow, a weak cold front that is currently located in the Panhandle, will approach North Texas and could result in developing thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon in the northern Big Country.
358 PM EDT Sat Jun 22 2019 Deep layer ridging centered over the area has kept weather fairly dry and uncomfortably warm across South Florida. As we conclude the weekend, influence from the deep layer ridge is expected to persist. A more robust sea breeze and the changing influence of the high pressure will also allow for showers and storms to be possible in the afternoon which could impact the terminals.
Latest satellite trends show building cumulus along a frontal boundary across central Kansas as well as a northward moving warm front across east central Kansas. Effective shear of 30 to 45 kts was observed with the highest across north central Kansas. Some backing of the low level winds in central and north central Kansas will locally enhance low level helicity so cannot rule out an isolated tornado.
336 PM EDT Sat Jun 22 2019 High pressure will gradually build down into the Mid Atlantic region into Sunday morning, then slides off the coast Sunday afternoon into Sunday night.
222 PM EDT Sat Jun 22 2019 A stationary front to the south will slowly lift northeast through the area as a warm front Sunday.
Notable are the high temps and dewpoints near the MS River of w TN and ne AR, as to whether it will entice the MCS more southward, but radar and satellite trends aren't too suggestive of that happening. With most surrounding offices, I am going with SCT POPS Sunday, which should be a warmer day for most spots barring a direct MCS hit. The western states long wave trough will still be ambling east through the second half of the weekend; eventually making its way through the Great Lakes as it lifts northeast into Canada.
Cooler aie behind the cold front will keep highs well below normal.
157 PM EDT Sat Jun 22 2019 High pressure will gradually build down into the Mid Atlantic region into Sunday morning, then slides off the coast Sunday afternoon into Sunday night.
247 PM MDT Sat Jun 22 2019 Persistent upper low is drifting just north of the MT/ND/Canadian border, with a secondary low crossing the Great Salt Lake region.
234 PM EDT Sat Jun 22 2019 High pressure will gradually build down into the Mid Atlantic region into Sunday morning, then slides off the coast Sunday afternoon into Sunday night.
152 PM EDT Sat Jun 22 2019 High pressure will gradually build down into the Mid Atlantic region into Sunday, then slides off the coast Sunday afternoon into Sunday night.
245 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2019 WV imagery shows the upper trough that was over the wrn CONUS yesterday has moved up into Saskatchewan, trailing a secondary trough that is approaching the Four Corners and leaving West Texas and Southeast New Mexico under SW flow aloft. Further east, a ridge is centered over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. At the sfc, a thermal ridge lies over the wrn portion of the CWA. This afternoon looks to be a little cooler than yesterday, but a few locations in the river valleys and Permian Basin could see triple-digit highs before sunset. Sunday, the secondary trough aforementioned above will move into the central CONUS and to near the MS Valley by 12Z Mon.
Upper level low heading northward through Saskatchewan but still a potent jet on the backside of the low maintaining low heights and cyclonic flow aloft in southern Montana/northern Wyoming. Residual instability will allow scattered showers and a few thunderstorms to develop over the higher terrain Sunday afternoon.
223 PM EDT Sat Jun 22 2019 High pressure over the central Great Lakes this afternoon will build across New York state and Pennsylvania on Sunday.
High pressure will maintain rain-free, light wind, and low humidity weather overnight. Upper ridging will be the dominant feature through Sunday and maintain dry conditions.
Temperatures will also remain well below normal due to cloud cover and an upper trough digging into the southern Plains. Not concerned about severe weather due to the limited instability and relatively weak shear (20-35 kts effective), but small hail is possible due to low freezing levels. The H5-7 trough crosses the state during the day, helping to provide forcing for continued thundershowers.
242 PM MDT Sat Jun 22 2019 Areas of rain will dissipate overnight as a strong upper level low moves away into Saskatchewan. A nearly stationary closed low located over southern Saskatchewan continues to generate areas of rain over northeastern Montana, including portions of Blaine County.
1219 PM EDT Sat Jun 22 2019 Low pressure will stall over the eastern Maritimes through the weekend.
Deep layer ridging centered over the Yucatan Peninsula supports a low level ridge axis stretching west across Florida. Temperatures are in the lower 90s with dewpoints in the 76-78 range. The mean layer ridge will slide west over the next 36-48 hours. Meanwhile, an upper-level short wave apparent on WV imagery nearing the Big Bend of Florida will pivot around the ridge. Falling heights east of Florida will consolidate the low-level anticyclone over the eastern Gulf of Mexico.
351 PM EDT Sat Jun 22 2019 Today's second MCS continues to dive southeast along a warm frontal boundary/instability gradient. 00-06z tonight is shaping up to be a relative lull in precip, but held on to slight chance/low chance PoPs with the warm front still in place. Hi-res ensemble guidance suggests an arcing band of convection spilling over the ridge aloft into the CWA after 07-09z Sunday. The synoptic warm front will gradually lift northeastward through the day, and sfc dewpoints are forecast to climb into the lower 70s in the warm sector.
241 PM EDT Sat Jun 22 2019 High pressure over the central Great Lakes will build across New York state and Pennsylvania on Sunday.
149 PM EDT Sat Jun 22 2019 High pressure will gradually build down into the Mid Atlantic region into Sunday, then slides off the coast Sunday afternoon into Sunday night.
It is possible for some of the high peaks to see several inches of additional accumulation.
Skies cleared out and temperatures close to the TN River have climbed back into the low 80s. Coupled with dew points in the low 70s, an instability gradient has developed across our western counties of Middle TN. While nothing has been warned on as of this writing, storms have yet to get into some of the higher instabilities.
A cold front continues to move east and south this afternoon. As a result, cooler and more stable air is spreading eastward across the FA. Of more importance comes associated with a trof moving across the area during the overnight period. Otherwise, eventually mid level ridging is indicated by the EC with warmer temperatures and generally dry conditions.
Slightly increased cloud cover with thin cu developing in the cooler air aloft. Dry and comfortable conditions expected with high pressure in control. Upper ridging will be the dominant feature through Sunday and maintain dry conditions.
The longwave trough over the western CONUS is slow to move eastward, so Sunday looks to be another cloudy day with widespread chances for rain.
202 PM EDT Sat Jun 22 2019 High pressure will gradually build down into the Mid Atlantic region into Sunday morning, then slides off the coast Sunday afternoon into Sunday night.
Elsewhere, prepare for a quiet and partly cloudy night with lows in the lower 70s.