Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Active weather pattern develops later today as 90-100 kt upper jet streak lifts into northeast Texas this evening around base of upper trough moving into the Four Corners region. A highly unstable air-mass with MLCAPES in excess of 3000 j/kg will develop along and south of cold front by late afternoon with deep layer shear increasing into the 35 to 40 knot range across warm sector. A few lingering showers expected on Tuesday across NE OK/NW AR in association with main upper trough axis. Otherwise, significantly cooler and windy conditions expected behind cold front with gusty north winds in the 30 to 35 mph range.
308 AM EDT Mon May 3 2021 Periodic shower and thunderstorm chances are expected through the first half of the week with a series of crossing low pressure areas. Near term models (RAP/HRRR/NAM) indicate the rain should taper off somewhat after the initial wave of showers moves through, though the mid/upper trough axis should cross the region by late afternoon/early eve, with an increase in shower/thunderstorm coverage. Showers and scattered thunderstorms should continue this evening as the mid/upper level trough axis completes passage.
1109 PM MDT Sun May 2 2021 The leading surface cold front has passed through most of the forecast area early this afternoon, currently located from west of Winner to Valentine, and continuing to move southeastward. The secondary cold front, with stronger low level cold advection producing gusty northwest winds, currently extends from near Philip to Custer. The moist airmass, combined with instability due to diurnal heating and lift enhanced by CAA aloft, as well as an upper trough crossing the region, has created scattered to numerous showers, and a few thunderstorms today.
406 AM EDT Mon May 3 2021 A low pressure system over western Kentucky will approach the region today with increasing moisture and the opportunity for showers and a few thunderstorms.
359 AM CDT Mon May 3 2021 Synopsis: Scattered non-severe thunderstorms and showers continue across portions of the area as a cold front continues to slowly slide southeast through the forecast area. Northwest winds will gust up toward 30 mph through much of the day with high temperatures in the low 60s. After a warm weekend with highs in the 80s and low 90s, today will feel significantly cooler. Lows tonight will dip into the upper 30s to low 40s across much of the area with near freezing temperatures to our west across portions of western Nebraska. Tuesday and beyond: Cooler than normal temperatures are expected through the work/school week as our region remains under large-scale troughing across the Northern Plains.
Sped the high PoPs up again and hour or two based on radar. The leading edge of the rain shield is now as far north as southern Carroll county with some breaks in the rain, but still fairly solid with heavier activity upstream over the Tennessee Valley and Ozarks, along and ahead of the negatively-tilted upper trough. Showers will overspread the area tonight as a weakening upper level wave pulls northeast out of the Red River Valley into the lower Ohio Valley. Mid and upper level ridging moves through the area in the wake of the upper wave midday into late afternoon Monday, which will likely bring at least occasional breaks in the precip as a moderate midlevel subsidence inversion develops.
Consensus among the ensemble model suite continues to progress the pattern into an amplified one characterized by an upstream amplified ridge building over the western US, a broadening out positive height anomaly over the Atlantic that's progged to stretch northward well into Greenland, and stuck in the middle is broad troughing and anomalous negative heights over the eastern third of North America. Overall this pattern will be accompanied by mostly quiet conditions, with an overall cooler temperature field across the forecast area.
The rain has been slow to develop across the middle of the state due to the presence of very dry air in the lower levels. A more well-defined height trough trails from southern Saskatchewan into northeast Montana. This trough could bring some additional, more widely scattered showers to parts of northwest and north central North Dakota later this afternoon and evening. Otherwise, expect another breezy and cooler day with highs in the 50s and northerly winds sustained around 15 to 25 mph. Flow aloft is forecast to remain northwesterly Monday night and Tuesday as surface ridging builds over the Northern Plains. This will result in less cloud cover and slightly warmer temperatures for Tuesday.
307 AM EDT Mon May 3 2021 Synopsis/Discussion/Aviation/Marine - Low pressure moves along cold front bringing rain and thunder chances into Tuesday - Upper troughing and cooler than normal temps after Tuesday with frost/freeze potential - Low pressure moves along cold front bringing rain and thunder chances into Tuesday Showers are expected to continue today along a warm/stationary front aligned across our northern forecast area, while the rain associated with a southern stream low impinges on the southern zones.
230 AM CDT Mon May 3 2021 Surface analysis early this morning has low pressure over central IA with a frontal boundary extending from the low east/northeastward through southern WI. Radar showing showers and embedded thunderstorms along and north of the frontal boundary in isentropic upglide/moisture transport ahead of the low. Otherwise, northerly winds will fill in behind the passing low, ushering in a cooler airmass. High pressure builds in tonight through Tuesday with a much chillier airmass. Cooler than normal conditions will linger through the week as a long wave trough establishes itself over the eastern CONUS.
Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms will develop along an approaching cold front west of the Illinois River by late afternoon. Upper low continues to pivot northeastward into the lower Ohio River Valley early this morning, with 08z/3am obs and satellite imagery indicating the center of the low over western Kentucky. Only scattered light showers have been noted across central Illinois, as the heaviest/most widespread precip has been focused to the right of the low track from Tennessee into southern Ohio. Cold front will settle southward to the Ohio River by Tuesday morning: however, with several waves of low pressure riding along the boundary, overrunning showers and perhaps a thunderstorm will linger across central Illinois throughout the day. Due to extensive cloud cover, showers, and N/NW winds, temperatures will be considerably cooler.
Ridging out west with broad troughing over the eastern U.
These are in a moist and unstable warm sector with sufficient bulk shear to sustain at least brief mesocyclones. At the surface, in response, a warm front has lifted into southern TN with temperatures in the upper 60s to lower 70s and dew points in the lower to middle 60s south of the front. For the rest of today, the upper low now over NW TN will shift northeast this morning, with a secondary impulse pushing through TN this morning into the midday hours. The threat of severe weather will not end until the late evening hours when the cold front pushes through, unless the daytime convection can squelch further development along the cold front.
1125 PM CDT Sun May 2 2021 (This evening through Monday Night) Upper low over southeastern OK early this afternoon will move away from the fa the rest of this afternoon and tonight ending the chances for rain in eastern parts of the fa. However, the higher potential for showers/storms will likely be behind the front as the wave moves across the region.
31 Highest impact portion of fcst period will be the beginning as the upper wave pushes across the area Tuesday night ahead of the translated sfc cold front. As the stronger dynamics eject NEWD, the sfc cold front elongates and pushes farther south across the area Wed, focusing the likely pops for showers and storms mainly across central GA by Wed afternoon.
233 AM MDT Mon May 3 2021 Synoptic Setup: A trough currently jogs south from Saskatchewan through eastern Montana and down into the Four Corners. In response a ridge has developed off the coast of California and stretches north over the Pacific Northwest and into British Columbia. Today and tonight: Cooler high pressures at the surface has worked its way in behind the exiting front and will lead to partly cloudy to clear conditions during the day.
/Updated at 0100 AM CDT Mon May 03 2021/ A warm front is now north of much of Central Alabama, stretching from Huntsville to Auburn.
521 AM EDT Mon May 3 2021 Periodic shower and thunderstorm chances are expected through the first half of the week with a series of crossing low pressure areas. Near term models (RAP/HRRR/NAM) indicate the rain should taper off somewhat after the initial wave of showers moves through, though the mid/upper trough axis should cross the region by late afternoon/early eve, with an increase in shower/thunderstorm coverage. Showers and scattered thunderstorms should continue this evening as the mid/upper level trough axis completes passage.
/issued 345 AM CDT Mon May 3 2021/ WV imagery shows the upper trough approaching the Four Corners, leaving southwest flow aloft over West Texas and Southeast New Mexico. The latest NAM shows the mountain wave signature diminishing over the next few hours, and the High Wind Warning will be allowed to expire at 11Z as a result. Area radars show a prefrontal trough has just passed through KLBB, and fropa looks to have occurred in KAMA.
327 AM MDT Mon May 3 2021 Widespread light to moderate rain has encompassed much of the lower foothills and adjacent plains early this morning. This has enhanced rainfall since midnight along with increasing dynamics from the Great Basin trof. Coupled with subsidence spreading in behind the trof, much of the showers will come to an end, especially after midnight. Due to the slowness of the trof and lingering upslope flow, have increased pops this evening over east slopes. By Tuesday morning the area will be under broad northwesterly flow aloft on the backside of the trough.
As the morning progresses, we may see some rain shower activity as moist air is lifted over the cooler airmass at the surface. /issued 300 AM CDT Mon May 3 2021/ An upper level trough will move into the Four Corners region this morning and slowly start to lift toward the central plains by this evening. A lead area of lift is making its way through central NM early this morning while a cold front surges south out of the Texas Panhandle. Precip will have moved off to our east along with the axis of the upper trough.
On our way to another hot day with temperatures already in the lower 80s across the area, eventually topping out upper 80s to low 90s along the coast and 93-95F inland. Morning sounding from XMR is showing temperatures slightly cooler aloft than yesterday, and short-range guidance is indicating this remaining through today. In addition, the upper-level ridge has shifted slightly farther to our east, so higher coverage of showers/storms is expected from late this afternoon into this evening, moreso along and SE of the I-4 corridor.
317 AM PDT Mon May 3 2021 Warm and dry weather pattern will continue through mid week, then cooler late in the week. Upper level ridge in place over NorCal is bringing dry and very warm conditions.
Upper level analysis places trough stretching through the Northern Plains into the Four Corners region, while ridge builds along the west coast. Speaking of wind, breezy conditions expected today, with the highest winds remaining over southern/eastern locations where pressure gradient remains a bit tighter. Tuesday starts out quiet, with ridge to the west and low over Ontario. During the evening and overnight hours, modest precipitation chances spread over the area as a short wave slides down the front of the ridge.
A dryline is expected to push into the western half of the CWA today which should help maintain clear skies and warmer temperatures. A cold front is expected to sweep across the area tomorrow morning which should help dissipate any fog that might develop.
A cold front will enter northeast Oklahoma this morning causing winds to be variable for a while this afternoon, before switching to northerly following frontal passage. Active weather pattern develops later today as 90-100 kt upper jet streak lifts into northeast Texas this evening around base of upper trough moving into the Four Corners region. A highly unstable air-mass with MLCAPES in excess of 3000 j/kg will develop along and south of cold front by late afternoon with deep layer shear increasing into the 35 to 40 knot range across warm sector. A few lingering showers expected on Tuesday across NE OK/NW AR in association with main upper trough axis. Otherwise, significantly cooler and windy conditions expected behind cold front with gusty north winds in the 30 to 35 mph range.
1026 AM EDT Mon May 3 2021 Another beautiful day is in store for the Florida Keys! Satellite imagery is depicting partly cloudy skies this morning and temperatures are currently in the lower to mid 80s across the island chain. KBYX is echo-free and rain chances will be limited today due to the Cuban Shadow Effect and drier air moving into the lower levels.
/Issued 320 AM CDT Mon May 3 2021/ Cold front was located from Portales, NM to Perryton, TX early this morning. The cold front should be through all of the Texas Panhandle by sunrise. An upper level trough will move southeast from southern Utah this morning to across the Panhandles late this afternoon and evening. This upper level trough will help to lift the atmosphere and with the low level moisture around, showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop.
621 AM CDT Mon May 3 2021 Latest radar imagery shows a few showers over NW Iowa and NE Nebraska, associated with a cold front that continues to depart the region. As a result, expect highs to remain on the cooler side (compared to the last few days), with temperatures forecast to only climb into the upper 50s to low 60s. Given that winds will be light, wouldn't be surprised to see some frost develop in those areas near freezing.
Whereas the upper level disturbance is pulling to the northeast, the cooler airmass/front is well back to the north and west. Expecting to see the sun briefly towards the end of the day as the cu settle down, only to see the low stratus clouds begin to develop again in the overnight and move northward into the region.
Synopsis: Scattered non-severe thunderstorms and showers continue across portions of the area as a cold front continues to slowly slide southeast through the forecast area. Northwest winds will gust up toward 30 mph through much of the day with high temperatures in the low 60s. After a warm weekend with highs in the 80s and low 90s, today will feel significantly cooler. Lows tonight will dip into the upper 30s to low 40s across much of the area with near freezing temperatures to our west across portions of western Nebraska. Tuesday and beyond: Cooler than normal temperatures are expected through the work/school week as our region remains under large-scale troughing across the Northern Plains.
Have also added some patchy morning fog as on the edge of the low cloud cover some reduced visibility has been noted. Upper level analysis places trough stretching through the Northern Plains into the Four Corners region, while ridge builds along the west coast. Speaking of wind, breezy conditions expected today, with the highest winds remaining over southern/eastern locations where pressure gradient remains a bit tighter. Tuesday starts out quiet, with ridge to the west and low over Ontario. During the evening and overnight hours, modest precipitation chances spread over the area as a short wave slides down the front of the ridge.
735 AM EDT Mon May 3 2021 Upper level ridging centered over the Bahamas sprawls across FL and much of the Gulf of Mexico though mid week with warm and generally dry/stable conditions. At the surface Atlantic high pressure broadly reaches over the state during the next 2/3 days with southeast and south winds that shift in the afternoons to southwest and west. For today expect sunny to mostly sunny skies as temperatures currently in the lower to mid 70s increase. The afternoon highs will reach the lower to mid 90s with heat indices of 97 to 104. Atlantic high pressure broadly ridges over the eastern Gulf of Mexico through mid week with a tightening gradient in the afternoons. A cold front pushes into the eastern Gulf toward the end of the week with a chance of showers and thunderstorms.
429 AM MDT Mon May 3 2021 Water vapor shows trof axis extending from the Northern Plains into the Four Corners region, with upper ridge along the west coast. Slightly warmer temps expected on Tuesday with return flow.
625 AM CDT Mon May 3 2021 Surface analysis early this morning has low pressure over central IA with a frontal boundary extending from the low east/northeastward through southern WI. Radar showing showers and embedded thunderstorms along and north of the frontal boundary in isentropic upglide/moisture transport ahead of the low. Otherwise, northerly winds will fill in behind the passing low, ushering in a cooler airmass. High pressure builds in tonight through Tuesday with a much chillier airmass. Cooler than normal conditions will linger through the week as a long wave trough establishes itself over the eastern CONUS.
609 AM CDT Mon May 3 2021 Upper level trof moving over the region early today will depart to our northeast. Scattered showers (possible thunder) will depart with the trof, resulting in a lull in convection later this morning through early afternoon. Other solutions show development (initiation) farther south toward the Ohio River this evening, with a more organized area of convection, possibly severe with damaging winds moving ENE from the southern Plains across the Ozarks toward the Lower Ohio Valley (our CWA) overnight.
Towards the late morning, most models dry up the lower levels to the point where at least filtered sunshine will be observed across the area, as high pressure builds in from the north. A few instability virga "showers" may develop across north central SD given very steep lapse rates as cooler air moves in aloft as well. Skies clear out completely tonight, as high pressure settles in. Mostly sunny skies are expected as well, under high pressure. Cloud cover increases late in the afternoon and winds begin shifting to the southeast from west to east, in advance of the next area of low pressure.
We should be mostly dry throughout the day as warm air advection pumps in deep gulf moisture into the Mid South ahead of the cold front tonight.
The dry weather is courtesy of a long wave ridge along the west coast that is now being flattened by a short wave riding over the top of it.
Cooler and breezy today as a storm system moves through the Four Corners then warmer during the second half of the week. All of this is associated with an upper level trof moving through the northern part of AZ. Cooler today with highs several degrees below early May normals. Tuesday: Warmer under W-NW flow aloft with upper level high pressure off southern CA coast.
Today through Tuesday Scattered showers are ongoing across the area as the trough continues to pull south. The positioning of the low to our south has provided favorable upslope flow for central Wyoming, especially for the east slopes of the Winds where accumulating snow will continue through the morning. Showers will become less widespread by early afternoon as the trough pulls away. Warmer air will also advect into the area with this, so afternoon temperatures will recover to only slightly below normal.
201 AM PDT Mon May 3 2021 High pressure will build over the west coast with warming temperatures through mid-week.
The threat of severe weather will not end until the late evening hours when the cold front pushes through, unless the daytime convection can squelch further development along the cold front.
This is likely in response to the upper level trough axis across Utah beginning to eject slowly eastward across the central Rocky Mountains. Based on current model initializations, snowlevels expected to fall to 5500-6000 feet for a time today as the upper level trough axis moves across the Front Range. Highs in the low to mid 50s expected for far eastern Wyoming and western Nebraska.
730 AM EDT Mon May 3 2021 Aviation - Low pressure moves along cold front bringing rain and thunder chances into Tuesday - Upper troughing and cooler than normal temps after Tuesday with frost/freeze potential - Low pressure moves along cold front bringing rain and thunder chances into Tuesday Showers are expected to continue today along a warm/stationary front aligned across our northern forecast area, while the rain associated with a southern stream low impinges on the southern zones.
636 AM CDT Mon May 3 2021 Little has changed in today's forecast: storm development is still highly contingent on the strength of forcing along the cold front as it drops through the region. A baroclinic boundary currently draped through South Dakota and Iowa will drop southeast today as a cold front, moving through the forecast area this afternoon and evening. Shear within the lower levels is expected to be largely parallel to the front, indicating that some storms could merge into linear segments. Mid-level ridging over the region during the day will attempt to stunt widespread storm development. While the mid-level ridging will limit widespread linear development, the environment is favorable for discrete storms to form initially off of the front before merging into small linear segments.
630 AM CDT Mon May 3 2021 The short term will be relatively quiet as the cold front continues to move east. This evening, an upper level trough, currently centered over the Great Basin, will move southeastward over the southern Rockies and leave west and north central Nebraska with a much calmer wind regime and clearer skies in its wake. The combination of the two creates for much cooler overnight temps in the low- to mid- 30s. Into the day Tuesday, highs will reach into the low to mid 60s, which is only a couple degrees below normal for this time of year.
Remnants of the decaying MCS from earlier in the evening continue to push into northeast Kansas this morning as the upper trough axis rotates through the Central Plains. The progressing cold front currently observed from south central through north central KS is on track to march southeast throughout the morning. Cool air advection also follows the boundary, resulting in temps from the low 60s in north central KS to the low 70s over far east central KS. A secondary upper trough axis enters the high plains this evening, as the mid level baroclinic zone sets up over southern KS into MO.
An upper level low pressure system will continue to bring cool and unsettled weather to the area today. A drying and warming trend will follow for midweek as high pressure builds across the region.
649 AM EDT Mon May 3 2021 Periodic shower and thunderstorm chances are expected through the first half of the week with a series of crossing low pressure areas. Near term models (RAP/HRRR/NAM) indicate the rain should taper off somewhat after the initial wave of showers moves through, though the mid/upper trough axis should cross the region by late afternoon/early eve, with an increase in shower/thunderstorm coverage. Showers and scattered thunderstorms should continue this evening as the mid/upper level trough axis completes passage.
A trough with its axis over central Arizona will slowly propagate eastward throughout the day, providing a chance of rain. However, the sounding is showing a dry layer in the lower atmosphere. As the trough makes its exit out of Arizona, the chance of precipitation is forecast to leave as well, making an abrupt departure right around sunset. Once the trough has pushed through, an upper-level ridge will follow, bringing significant warming to northern Arizona.
659 AM EDT Mon May 3 2021 A low pressure system over western Kentucky will approach the region today with increasing moisture and the opportunity for showers and a few thunderstorms.