Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
807 AM EDT Mon Oct 21 2019 One more warm afternoon then a cold front brings rain and breezy weather tonight and Tuesday. Dry conditions are expected today with daytime highs 10-15 degrees above normal, increased southeasterly flow, and increasing cloud coverage as a deepening closed upper low advances toward the Upper MS Valley. 40" (+ 90% climatological average) should support periods of moderate rainfall through Tuesday morning as the cold front quickly advances through the forecast area. Dry conditions will then resume as high pressure quickly builds back in behind the front during the afternoon support a drying trend Tuesday behind the cold front.
High pressure aloft will expand east and bring drier and warmer air into the Great Basin tonight through Tuesday.
332 AM MDT Mon Oct 21 2019 Current surface analysis shows main area of low pressure over northeast NE, with tight pressure gradient extending to the north and west across a good portion of the Dakotas. Winds will decrease later this afternoon as the low moves into the western Great Lakes region.
/issued 335 AM CDT Mon Oct 21 2019/ Showers and thunderstorms ahead of an approaching cold front are beginning to push into the Mid-South at this time. High pressure will settle over the Mid-South for the middle of the week. The ECMWF and Canadian continue to show an upper level low pressure system developing. Although, tonight's run shows the upper low developing further to the southwest near El Paso, Texas.
Thereafter some recovery likely ahead of strong sfc cold front this aftn. Cams solutions remain adamant on low topped convection developing along cold front w/some suggestion of a thin line event late through nrn IN which within a very strong kinematic wind field would pose some certain svr wind risk. Passage of moist/trailing mid level trough likely to support additional showers north by late morning through mid aftn and bumped pops a bit higher per good consensus signals.
Cooler and much drier air wl advect into the region on breezy W/NW winds late today and tngt, with rapid clearing expected.
511 AM EDT Mon Oct 21 2019 Warmer conditions are expected today before a frontal system brings rain and increased winds to the region later tonight and Tuesday. Dry conditions are expected today with daytime highs 10-15 degrees above normal, increased southeasterly flow, and increasing cloud coverage as a deepening closed upper low advances toward the Upper MS Valley. 40" (+ 90% climatological average) should support periods of moderate rainfall through Tuesday morning as the cold front quickly advances through the forecast area. Dry conditions will then resume as high pressure quickly builds back in behind the front during the afternoon support a drying trend Tuesday behind the cold front.
Dry and Cooler. As the cold front continues to push south, across Texas today, high pressure will build over West Central Texas. Highs today will be cooler than yesterday; however, highs in some areas may still be a few degrees above usual mid October highs.
A line of showers and thunderstorms has developed along a warm front lifting through southeast Missouri and extreme southwest Kentucky. Surface analysis shows a strong cold front extending from north central Missouri to just east of Springfield into extreme northwest Arkansas. Increasing moisture behind the warm front and favorable wind fields should help thunderstorms keep their intensity as they move across our region. Gusty south winds can be expected ahead of the cold front today, becoming west and tapering off late today into this evening. Dry and cooler conditions can be expected tonight through Tuesday night. As the high moves east, a return of south to southwest winds will result in a warming trend.
612 AM EDT Mon Oct 21 2019 Moisture will increase ahead of an approaching cold front today before the front crosses the area Tuesday.
Warmer than average for the remainder of this week.
314 AM PDT Mon Oct 21 2019 Warmer and dry weather will continue through Tuesday with periods of gusty northeast winds near the coastal slopes of the mountains.
Today into Tuesday: A vigorous mid/upper-level low pressure system continues to slowly slide northeast over southeast SD/northeast Nebraska. The main concern with this slowly departing system will be strong/gusty northwesterly winds behind a surface cold front that is forecast to surge southeast through the forecast area later this morning. Some uncertainty remains on how far south to take the advisory, and this may need to be modified by later shifts, but we feel we have the bulk of the highest gusts covered in the current advisory. High temperatures will range from upper 40s north to mid 50s south but will feel quite blustery compared to recent warmer days.
/issued 650 AM CDT Mon Oct 21 2019/ Showers and thunderstorms ahead of an approaching cold front are beginning to push into the Mid-South at this time. High pressure will settle over the Mid-South for the middle of the week. The ECMWF and Canadian continue to show an upper level low pressure system developing. Although, tonight's run shows the upper low developing further to the southwest near El Paso, Texas.
1034 AM EDT Mon Oct 21 2019 Mean-layer ridging prevails across the Gulf of Mexico and the Yucatan Peninsula. Low level ridging stretches west across Florida, lending to gentle east to southeast breezes across the coastal waters of the Florida Keys. From synopsis, a pressure ridge in the Florida Straits will move northward and establish itself across Southern Florida this afternoon through Tuesday night.
Temperatures remained below normal yesterday as strong NW flow increased behind the trough that moved across the region yesterday. The EPAC ridge will begin moving into the region today with warming temperatures over the CENCAL interior this week.
516 AM MDT Mon Oct 21 2019 Current surface analysis shows main area of low pressure over northeast NE, with tight pressure gradient extending to the north and west across a good portion of the Dakotas. Winds will decrease later this afternoon as the low moves into the western Great Lakes region.
730 AM EDT Mon Oct 21 2019 The lowering sun angle of late October will allow for current low vis/cgi conditions to persist for a few more hours at CHA and TYS, likely until 15Z.
433 AM CDT Mon Oct 21 2019 The surface cold front has exited the FA making way for sunny and cooler conditions today with highs rising to near 70F over most of the area. Breezy northwesterly winds are expected on Monday, with 20-30 MPH gusts across northwestern OK, as the broad area of low pressure deepens and tracks toward the Great Lakes region. High pressure then tracks across our area and winds return out of the south Tuesday night.
/issued 433 AM CDT Mon Oct 21 2019/ The surface cold front has exited the FA making way for sunny and cooler conditions today with highs rising to near 70F over most of the area. Breezy northwesterly winds are expected on Monday, with 20-30 MPH gusts across northwestern OK, as the broad area of low pressure deepens and tracks toward the Great Lakes region. High pressure then tracks across our area and winds return out of the south Tuesday night.
228 PM CDT Mon Oct 21 2019 A relatively quiet day Tuesday with slightly warmer temperatures expected.
Some of the usual drainage areas, across the Hill Country and isolated spots just east of I-35, could dip into the low 40s. A weak low level return flow is expected to set-up Tuesday night with low temps a couple of degrees warmer than tonight, but still cool.
So hedged a bit cooler tonight to account for that. Hedged warmer on guidance.
116 PM CDT Mon Oct 21 2019 For the 21/18Z TAF period, improving flight conditions will continue through this afternoon as skies clear from west to east behind the cold front which continues to produce showers near the MLU terminal where MVFR/IFR cigs will persist for a few more hours. The cold front continues to gradually work its way eastward with clearing skies just behind it across SE Oklahoma and much of NE Texas and SW Arkansas. Farther south and east, showers remain ongoing across much of northeast and north central Louisiana just ahead of the cold front.
455 PM EDT Mon Oct 21 2019 A cold front will bring rain and gusty wind overnight and early Tuesday. Showers associated with the warm front continue to track north and east across western OH. Surface cold front will complete it's passage around midday Tuesday. High pressure will then build over the region through the latter half of the day.
Surface observations showing cold front about to advance across the Lafayette area and will be exiting Acadiana by late this afternoon.
222 PM EDT Mon Oct 21 2019 Strong cold front will bring rain and gusty wind overnight into Tuesday.
---BMickelson Previous discussion: Synoptic Setup: Forecast begins with a large trough over the central Part of Canada and the CONUS. A large ridge is beginning to develop up the west coast from California to central British Columbia. Farther west another trough/ridge couplet lies over the north Pacific. Today through Tonight: Northwest flow will bring dry and warm conditions with a weak mesoscale ridge arriving overnight.
/issued 922 AM CDT Mon Oct 21 2019/ Showers and thunderstorms ahead of an approaching cold front are beginning to push into the Mid-South at this time. High pressure will settle over the Mid-South for the middle of the week. The ECMWF and Canadian continue to show an upper level low pressure system developing. Although, tonight's run shows the upper low developing further to the southwest near El Paso, Texas.
As temperatures fall tonight under the clear sky conditions, models are fairly uniform in forecasting upper 20s to low 30s in the westernmost counties, and the mid and upper 30s across the lower plains/central Kansas counties for Tuesday morning lows. Much the same of a temperature-wise day is expected on Tuesday, with a largely homogeneous airmass across the region - about 5 degrees warmer than Today.
236 PM CDT Mon Oct 21 2019 Low pressure will continue to exit to the east this evening.
This system is currently to the northeast of the upper low which is lifting northeast through northwest Iowa. A few showers and thunderstorms have developed under the upper low this afternoon over the northwest half of the state while a more broad area of stratiform precipitation is further upstream. A weak ridge of high pressure will arrive Tuesday night.
Strong heating occurring south of the warm front with S/SW flow.
Upper ridging building in during the day should shift any precipitation north of our area, thus removed any mention of rain for the northern part of the forecast area. A quiet pattern is on tap for the rest of the week with a strong upper ridging over our area today, then just off the west later in the week.
A strong cold front in extreme western Louisiana this afternoon will move rapidly through the forecast area tonight, bringing much cooler temperatures and breezy conditions to the region on Tuesday.
255 PM EDT Mon Oct 21 2019 A cold front will approach the mid Ohio Valley this evening, bringing showers and gusty winds. Cooler and blustery conditions will occur on Tuesday as strong low pressure persists over Ontario.
High pressure over the region is anticipated to slowly migrate eastward through tomorrow. Wind speeds will be mostly light and variable in direction during this time as high pressure meanders eastward. After coordinating with neighboring offices, have leaned forecast toward idea of slower progression of next mid-level trof, siding with WPC guidance. ECMWF ensemble mean depiction of a positively-tilted 500 mb trof moving through the area matches fairly well with GFS ensemble mean, but is a bit slower.
A cold front is moving into East Arkansas and should shift across the Mississippi River by sunset.
304 PM EDT Mon Oct 21 2019 A cold front will approach from the west tonight before crossing the region later Tuesday into Tuesday night.
239 PM CDT Mon Oct 21 2019 The trough axis that passed to our east overnight bringing severe weather in Dallas has resulted in northwest flow aloft, with max temperatures around 10 degrees cooler than yesterday. Winds will ease quickly after sunset this evening which will help cool most locations on the Caprock into the 30s, and locations off the Caprock mostly falling into the low 40s.
353 PM CDT Mon Oct 21 2019 A strong, negatively-tilted longwave trough will be the main driver of weather over the next 36 hours.
1240 PM EDT Mon Oct 21 2019 Moisture will increase ahead of an approaching cold front.
/issued 510 AM CDT Mon Oct 21 2019/ (Today and Tonight) As the cold front continues to push south, across Texas today, high pressure will build over West Central Texas. Highs today will be cooler than yesterday; however, highs in some areas may still be a few degrees above usual mid October highs.
Cold front now positioned n-s across central AR. As for temperatures, we are currently in the low 70s across much of the east, with cooler 60s across the west where rain has fallen.
Satellite imagery has been pretty impressive with this system with pretty classic low and mid level cyclone features. Some of this moisture has come back around on the backside of the low level cyclone, which has resulted in some isolated to scattered light rain showers across far NE Kansas, SE Nebraska, and NW Missouri. As the low and mid level systems continue their trek northeast ward the better chances for these light rain showers will move north as well.
305 PM EDT Mon Oct 21 2019 Mean-layer ridging prevails across the Gulf of Mexico and the Yucatan Peninsula. Low level ridging stretches west to Florida, lending to gentle southeast breezes across the coastal waters of the Florida Keys. The mean-layer ridge centered over the basin will slide a little to the east then persist through much of the forecast period. A weakening surface front will washout over Florida late Tuesday, followed by a bridging area of high pressure which will slide quickly east across the northern Gulf Coast. Weak confluence between the bridging high and the weakened tropical easterlies will result in a slight uptick in rain chances Tuesday night.
214 PM CDT Mon Oct 21 2019 Cold frontal boundary is just west of the MS river at this time. In fact, overnight lows will be harmless(in terms of freezing/frost potential) with 40s expected. In the ext fcst, models in agreement with bringing a weak cold front through the area on Thu nt with perhaps a few showers.
Weak impulses in this flow will pass by and keep some snow showers going over the higher mtns though some lull in the snow expected later tonight and Tuesday. Otherwise warmer across the area Tuesday and not too cold Tuesday night.
Highs on Tuesday will range from around 40 over the Turtle Mountains, to the lower 50s far southwest.
A Pacific Northwest storm system will exit the area today, allowing high pressure to build through midweek.
Southeast to south winds develop late Tuesday morning as high pressure moves east.
By Tuesday a cold front will attempt to push through central Florida. It looks like it has the upper level support to make it through however is will make a hard stop in south Florida as it runs into the subtropical ridge.
Sunny skies, low moisture, and cooler temperatures prevail currently in the wake of last night's cold frontal passage.
227 PM CDT Mon Oct 21 2019 A strong low pressure to our northwest will result in breezy conditions across central Illinois through Tuesday.
1128 AM EDT Mon Oct 21 2019 Moisture will increase ahead of an approaching cold front today before the front crosses the area Tuesday.
Occluded/cold front extending southward from the low into western IA/MO into eastern OK. Well established subtropical tap from the Pacific/Mexico ahead of the low/occluded/cold front. The low will continue to lift northeast into southern MN today and then into northern WI tonight. Winds trail off but remaining rather gusty through Tuesday night as the low pulls further northeast into Ontario Canada. Look for lows in the low to mid 30s.
The upper level low continues to move to the northeast this afternoon and evening. As the low moves away, clouds should decrease and pull out of the area. There will be sunshine and warm advection, so temperatures should be around 10 degrees warmer than today. The warm advection will continue into Tuesday night, but during the night there is expected to be a cold front.
Main cold front was edging east from Milwaukee to Springfield IL. Otherwise winds will remain on the higher side into tonight with colder air spreading in from the west. Next trough will drop in on Tuesday and bring chance of showers mainly north with another round of stronger winds. Highs will only be in the lower 50s except across far SE areas which might lean towards upper 50s.
350 PM CDT Mon Oct 21 2019 Stacked low pressure system continues to bring wind and rain to the region.
1106 AM MDT Mon Oct 21 2019 Current surface analysis shows main area of low pressure over northeast NE, with tight pressure gradient extending to the north and west across a good portion of the Dakotas. Winds will decrease later this afternoon as the low moves into the western Great Lakes region.
Winds at the high elevation/foothill wind prone areas have been gusting into the 40s today, so have hoisted a wind advisory for those location to take us from now until fropa. At the beginning of this period, Tuesday evening, we will be at the base of a large upper level trough that will be progressing to our east. At the surface, post-frontal high pressure will be filling into the area with cooler, drier air. Chattanooga Airport, TN 55 70 43 69 / 100 20 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 55 69 42 66 / 100 30 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 54 68 41 66 / 100 20 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 56 67 40 62 / 100 70 0 0 TN.
Cold front now positioned n-s across central AR. As for temperatures, we are currently in the low 70s across much of the east, with cooler 60s across the west where rain has fallen. A cold front will sweep across Middle Tennessee later today.
Even after the rain clears out the low clouds will hang around.
/issued 228 PM CDT Mon Oct 21 2019/ A relatively quiet day Tuesday with slightly warmer temperatures expected.
1033 PM EDT Mon Oct 21 2019 Currently - Winds remain light out of the east to southeast across the forecast area due to a ridge draped across South Florida. Deep layered ridging is aligned across South Florida And the Keys. Short Term Update - Surface winds will remain light out of the east to southeast through the overnight period due to the ridge nearby to our north. The deep layered ridging, dry air aloft, and weak flow will contribute to only dime pops. A ridge across South Florida will keep winds light out of the east to southeast across Keys waters through the overnight period.
High pressure over the eastern Pacific will result in an early to midweek warmup.
MA Chattanooga Airport, TN 57 70 43 69 44 / 100 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 57 69 42 66 43 / 90 20 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 56 68 41 66 41 / 100 10 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 58 67 40 62 39 / 70 70 0 0 0 TN.
Low pressure will continue to exit to the east this evening.
Cold frontal boundary is just west of the MS river at this time. In fact, overnight lows will be harmless(in terms of freezing/frost potential) with 40s expected. In the ext fcst, models in agreement with bringing a weak cold front through the area on Thu nt with perhaps a few showers. Even after the rain clears out the low clouds will hang around.
The associated cold front may stall for a time through northeast Montana.
908 PM EDT Mon Oct 21 2019 Mesoscale Discussion/Aviation A narrow band of showers developed just behind the surface cold front.
610 PM CDT Mon Oct 21 2019 Updated aviation section for 00z taf issuance A cold front is approaching the forecast area and will move east of the region between 00z and 01z this evening. On Tuesday, high pressure will move east from the Southern Plains toward the Southeast US. Cooler air will filter in providing highs only in the lower to middle 60s under a mostly sunny sky. Winds will die down Tuesday evening and with the high pressure building in overnight lows will dip down into the upper 30s for many areas. more of a split flow, with anti-cyclonic flow aloft over us ahead of a cut-off low initially in the southern Plains. The initialization blend indicated a compromise of course, with limited PoPs peaking Sat evening and diminishing rapidly Sun as heights and pressures rise in the low's wake.
/Tonight through Tuesday Night/ Cold front has cleared the region this afternoon with cloud cover still lagging a bit across much of northeast and north central Louisiana while clear skies have overtaken the vast majority of the region. Dew points have really dropped off significantly behind the front with drier air quickly spilling south while ambient temperatures have managed to recover nicely into the lower to mid 70s this afternoon where skies have already cleared.
Winds at the high elevation/foothill wind prone areas have been gusting into the 40s today, so have hoisted a wind advisory for those location to take us from now until fropa. At the beginning of this period, Tuesday evening, we will be at the base of a large upper level trough that will be progressing to our east. At the surface, post-frontal high pressure will be filling into the area with cooler, drier air.
MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE STORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA Scattered showers and isolated storms continue across the area as a result of a warm front interacting with a moist and unstable airmass. A cold front will traverse the area Tuesday afternoon producing scattered showers and isolated storms.
757 PM EDT Mon Oct 21 2019 A cold front will sweep east though the Ohio Valley overnight, bringing showers and gusty winds. Cooler and blustery conditions will occur on Tuesday as strong low pressure persists over Ontario.
Behind the exiting Pacific Northwest storm system, high pressure will build through midweek.
643 PM CDT Mon Oct 21 2019 A strong low pressure to our northwest will result in breezy conditions across central Illinois through Tuesday.
High pressure continues to build into the southern and central CONUS in the wake of last night's cold front. Winds will become light and variable late tonight as the axis of the high pressure makes its way east.
Meanwhile, a weak cold front will slowly sink south towards our forecast area bringing at least a slight chance of precipitation mainly north of the Umpqua Divide and northern Cascades on Tuesday. Any precipitation will end Tuesday evening with dry weather returning Tuesday night and lasting through the end of the week as upper ridging builds in. This will mean generally clear skies and warmer than normal temperatures. At the surface a thermal trough will develop along the coast with increasing offshore flow.
Will let the high wind warning and advisory continue through the night. Low pressure will continue to exit to the east this evening.
900 PM EDT Mon Oct 21 2019 Warm front over north FL lifting slowly north into the Deep South overnight, leaving a 10-15 S/SW flow in its wake thru 10KFT. Mid lvl thermal ridge in place with H70 temps btwn 10-12C. Favorable boating conds overnight as a warm front over north FL lifts north into GA/AL. Winds will shift to S/SW by daybreak as a cold front over the NW GOMex/Lwr MS Valley approaches the FL Peninsula, but again, pgrad will only support a light to gentle breeze.
717 PM EDT Mon Oct 21 2019 A cold front will bring rain and gusty wind overnight and early Tuesday. Previous: Showers associated with the warm front continue to track north and east across western OH. Surface cold front will complete it's passage around midday Tuesday. High pressure will then build over the region through the latter half of the day.
615 PM CDT Mon Oct 21 2019 A strong, negatively-tilted longwave trough will be the main driver of weather over the next 36 hours.
Westerly surface winds and clear conditions were common across Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas this evening behind the upper trof axis of the closed low continuing to lift northeast across Wisconsin.
255 PM PDT Mon Oct 21 2019 Strengthening high pressure off of the Pacific Coast will bring decreasing winds and a warming trend through Tuesday.