Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1254 PM CDT Tue Mar 17 2020 A weak upper level trough will move through the region today and tonight. This trough will bring the potential for rain, drizzle, and fog to the region. Precipitation totals are expected to be under a tenth of a inch and with temperatures expected above freezing, snow is not expected.
TFJ Cut off low along the California coast will drift southeast over the next few days while broad trof remains over Canada. Ridge between these features will briefly bring a warmer airmass into the state on today, before another wave drops out of Alaska into the Canadian trof and pushes a cold front south of the border. Some light precipitation is possible with this front from late tonight into Wednesday night, with sounding profiles indicating some possibility of rain or freezing rain along with snow. Remainder of the week will feature cool but dry weather with the upper trof pushing south. As trof moves east and ridge builds over the west, temperatures will warm to above normal for the weekend. Clouds will increase and lower this evening with the approach of a cold front from the north, with snow showers possible by morning.
1140 AM CDT Tue Mar 17 2020 High pressure will bring dry conditions, along with slightly warmer temperatures and some sunshine. However, as the high pressure moves east tonight, the next weather system will begin to spread rain back into the area late tonight, continuing into Wednesday. High pressure will gradually move into central Illinois today and bring dry and seasonable temperatures to the area. As the high pressure moves east tonight, the first wave of the next weather system will move toward the area, spreading rain into west central Illinois late tonight.
/Tonight through Tuesday/ Quiet conditions across central Iowa this afternoon with departing ridge and associated drier air limiting clouds.
Upper level ridging from western Cuba to the Deep South this afternoon eases eastward. An old frontal boundary in south GA dissipates overnight as Atlantic high pressures builds west. Deep upper level troughing over the eastern Pacific and western U.
Dry conditions are expected through the period with building high pressure behind a crossing front.
A low pressure system along the northern California coast will maintain a mild southerly flow across Utah today. This low pressure will slowly drift east into the Great Basin and bring the potential for widespread precipitation over Utah midweek. Associated ascent and modest mid level moisture should be sufficient for high based showers later this afternoon into the evening primarily along the Nevada border, but also further east along the higher terrain from the Wasatch Plateau northward into the western Uintas.
Weak short wave ridging and some brief deep layer drying will allow for a mainly precip free night with varying amounts of clouds. Flow will turn more southerly and the nearly stationary frontal boundary to our south overnight will begin edging back north as a warm front on Wednesday. The low level flow is expected to have enough of a downslope component to lower precip chances in the northern and at least eastern portions of the central valley. By Wednesday night a warm front will be lifting through the area, this front is ahead of a trough over the plains states, this is also forcing through a cold front as well. After the front has moved to the north we will see a decrease in precipitation chances ahead of the cold front in the warm sector.
342 PM EDT Tue Mar 17 2020 Deep layer ridging stretches from the western Atlantic, across the Sunshine State, and into the Gulf of Mexico. Current temperatures across the Keys are in the lower to mid 80s with dew points in the upper 60s.
With the depth of the low level moisture layer along with decent ll winds, we could also have some drizzle/freezing drizzle tonight into Wednesday. Warmer air will also push in on Wednesday with highs in the 40s under cloudy skies. On Wednesday night, we begin to receive the lift from the upper level low pressure trough from the west along with a surface cold front pushing in from the north. The main issue on Wednesday night will be precipitation type with warm temperatures aloft along with colder air moving in through the lower levels. Therefore, expect a wintry mix with rain, freezing rain, along with some snow in the north by morning. To start out the period, upper level low pressure located over northeastern Colorado will be providing a wintry mix of precipitation over much of the forecast area.
Fog should dissipate quickly and with a generally drier airmass in place on Wednesday expect little to no convection and temperatures a degree or two warmer than today with a little more sunshine.
This will keep precipitation all liquid with little or no threat of freezing precipitation.
/issued 815 AM EDT Tue Mar 17 2020/ Stout mid-upper ridging will remain prominent through the southeastern Gulf of Mexico, northwestern Caribbean Sea, and Bahamas.
An active weather pattern is expected over the next few days as a strong upper level low pressure system moves from the Central Plains to the Upper Midwest.
Water vapor imagery shows a flat ridge lingering over the sern CONUS. Wednesday is now looking a little drier as guidance suggests the next disturbance aloft passing north while weak ridging/capping develops ahead of our next weather maker.
1111 AM MDT Tue Mar 17 2020 Western CONUS upper trough will eject east in the period, supporting a storm system over the Central Plains Wed-Thur. Moist BL combined with some wind shear through the inversion will likely support low clouds and a chance for freezing drizzle and fog late tonight into Wed morning. Main upper trough will eject into the central Plains Wed night, supporting increasing LSA over the region. Given fairly warm profiles with saturation occurring in the low levels warmer than -10C, a wintry mix would be expected over the NW 2/3 until appreciable CAA.
Dry conditions are expected through the period with building high pressure behind a crossing front. WAA and moisture advection will be on the increase Wednesday with strengthening southwest flow ahead of the next low pressure system.
256 PM MDT Tue Mar 17 2020 An elongated area of low pressure remains off the northern California coast this afternoon. As this low cuts off and moves slowly across northern Nevada, moisture will increase over the area tonight and into the day Wednesday. Snow levels remain high this afternoon, 6000-7000ft, so the only the higher elevations will see snow with accumulations not expected to be more than 1-2 inches. As we move into Wednesday, snow levels drop will drop as cooler air moves into the area as the low moves a bit closer to the region.
The main focus during this forecast period is a robust closed low off the west coast.
345 PM EDT Tue Mar 17 2020 Decreasing clouds late today with skies becoming mainly clear tonight as an area of high pressure drifts overhead.
328 PM EDT Tue Mar 17 2020 Decreasing clouds late today with skies becoming mainly clear tonight as an area of high pressure drifts overhead.
For now, have gone optimistic, and kept mild overnight lows in the lower to middle 50s. Mid level warm advection will be underway by late tonight as well, with a band of mid clouds over central AL beginning to shift northward just ahead of the surface warm front. Band of low to mid level clouds and perhaps a few showers or an isolated thunderstorm will shift northeast with the warm front on Wednesday.
Difficult forecast, with considerable moisture lingering in the low levels for much of the period. A northern stream impulse currently moving into the Great Lakes region will continue to break down ridging across the southeast with quasi-zonal mid level flow expected across the region. Substantial cloud cover and showers will bring cooler temperatures once again today with highs in the upper 50s to upper 60s.
Attention then turns to the upper low complex over CA/NV.
A cold front is forecast to stall just northeast of the CWA, posing a tornadic threat. Wednesday, the elongating trough over central CA is forecast to dumbbell, w/the srn lobe swinging thru SoCal/Baja del Norte by 00Z Thu, and to NE NM by 12Z.
A slow-moving midlevel trough off the California coast will continue to drift eastward through the short term. Ripples in the flow around that trough will support increasing rain chances out west tonight, as models hint at another thunderstorm complex developing out over west Texas and northern Mexico and drifting over the western brush country before fading out Wednesday morning.
For Wednesday, dry weather conditions once again with temps reaching the lower 80s along the coastal areas while the interior will warm up to the mid 80s with partly sunny skies.
556 PM EDT Tue Mar 17 2020 Decreasing clouds late today with skies becoming mainly clear tonight as an area of high pressure drifts overhead.
Temperatures remain above freezing all night, so all precipitation should remain liquid.
Showery weather will continue as the deep, cold closed low continues to move slowly south and is now off the coast of central/southern California. As snow showers taper off tomorrow afternoon, the higher elevation of the Sierra could see an additional. The foothills and mountains will span the 30s to low 60s, with the coldest temps being found at the higher elevations.
A low pressure system will slowly move through the region bringing cooler and unsettled weather through the remainder of the week.
847 PM EDT Tue Mar 17 2020 Decreasing clouds this evening with skies becoming mainly clear later tonight as an area of high pressure drifts overhead.
Although showers and thunderstorms related to the warm front will likely hold off until late Wednesday morning/early Wednesday afternoon, we have indicated a very low POP for our southwestern zones to reflect the potential development of a few showers in this region between 09-12Z. Overnight lows will range from the lower 50s in the northwest to the mid 50s in the southeast. Band of low to mid level clouds and perhaps a few showers or an isolated thunderstorm will shift northeast with the warm front on Wednesday.
Overall ceilings will fall into IFR to LIFR levels as warm front lifts northward with flight levels improving from late morning through afternoon Wednesday. /Issued 419 PM CDT Tue Mar 17 2020/ Widespread showers and scattered thunderstorms will overspread the area tonight before diminishing Wednesday morning as a warm front pushes north across the area. Temperatures will remain fairly steady or perhaps even rise some overnight as the warm front lifts north.
1017 PM EDT Tue Mar 17 2020 Decreasing clouds this evening with skies becoming mainly clear later tonight as an area of high pressure drifts overhead.
The upper low that the precipitation is wrapping around will wobble around to eastern portions of the forecast area through Wednesday morning before moving south out of the region Wednesday afternoon, bringing the heavier showers south with it. However, with models varying run by run with the track and timing of the low, confidence is not high and may need to extend this further and monitor closely.
419 PM CDT Tue Mar 17 2020 Widespread showers and scattered thunderstorms will overspread the area tonight before diminishing Wednesday morning as a warm front pushes north across the area. Temperatures will remain fairly steady or perhaps even rise some overnight as the warm front lifts north.
Previous discussion follows: Dry conditions are expected through Wednesday morning with building high pressure behind the crossing cold front. WAA and moisture advection will be on the increase Wednesday with strengthening southwest flow ahead of the next low pressure system.
/22/ Through tomorrow: Subtropical ridging will remain centered across the Gulf of Mexico and into the southeast states with perturbed quasi-zonal flow across the Lower Mississippi River Valley on the poleward side of the ridge. Temperatures will climb into the low 80s area wide with wind gusts around 20- 25mph owing to respectable mixing.
822 PM EDT Tue Mar 17 2020 Warm and humid conditions continue with stacked ridging over the region. Upper level ridging from western Cuba to the Deep South this afternoon eases eastward. An old frontal boundary in south GA dissipates overnight as Atlantic high pressures builds west. Deep upper level troughing over the eastern Pacific and western U.
Dry conditions are expected through Wednesday morning with building high pressure behind the crossing cold front. WAA and moisture advection will be on the increase Wednesday with strengthening southwest flow ahead of the next low pressure system.
303 PM MDT Tue Mar 17 2020 Easterly winds have trended higher in latest model guidance, particularly from Flathead Lake, through Kalispell, and the Highway 2 corridor through the Glacier Region, where gusts to 30-40 mph are possible this evening and overnight. A low pressure system will approach the region from the south, bringing an area of snow to parts of north-central Idaho and west- central and southwest Montana, mainly south of I-90 and Highway 12. Showers will linger through Wednesday, and there is some agreement for a weak low pressure circulation to focus the showers to southern Idaho County and northern Lemhi County.
753 PM EDT Tue Mar 17 2020 Decreasing clouds this evening with skies becoming mainly clear later tonight as an area of high pressure drifts overhead.
Upper and surface ridging will dominate the forecast overnight. Chattanooga Airport, TN 54 72 62 79 65 / 10 50 50 20 50 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 51 73 62 78 64 / 10 30 50 30 40 Oak Ridge, TN 50 72 61 77 64 / 10 40 60 30 50 Tri Cities Airport, TN 48 71 56 76 61 / 10 20 60 40 30.
Pacific moisture and energy spreading northeast out of the rockies will increase mid level moisture and provide lift over building cold air dome trailing a cold front that pushed through late this afternoon. Precipitation will mainly be snow, but there is some hint in the models of light freezing drizzle mixing in south of the Missouri river that will need to be monitored overnight. Temperatures in the lower 20s are already pushing south across the Canadian border this evening, and expect lows overnight to range from the lower teens north to the lower 20s south.
1022 PM EDT Tue Mar 17 2020 Water vapor imagery and mean layer analyses depict a well formed ridge complex over the Western Caribbean. High pressure centered east of Bermuda and over the northern Appalachians coalesces into a ridge axis across northern Florida. A high pressure ridge will extend from the Atlantic across Central and North Florida tonight and Wednesday, maintaining moderate to occasionally fresh easterly breezes across the coastal waters of the Florida Keys.
additional shower and thunderstorms were ongoing/developing to the south across Central Texas along and near a warm front and also along a surface boundary over the Texas Big Bend area. The warm front looks to cross the Red River late tonight with warming temps and precipitable water values increasing into the 1. Ongoing cloud cover along with the approaching warm front should keep temps overnight from cooling too much more over the next few hours. overnight lows in the low/mid 50s remain possible. though temps around 12z Wednesday look to range from the lower 50s near the Missouri border to the low 60s near the Red River.
Warm front to the S of AR wl begin to lift sloly late tngt and Wed, with rain chances incrsg, along and N of the bndry.
If we do indeed hit the low to mid 70s, this could provide a bit more instability than current models are suggesting and could allow for more robust storms to develop.
Upper and surface ridging will dominate the forecast overnight. Diegan Chattanooga Airport, TN 72 62 79 65 73 / 40 40 20 50 80 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 73 62 78 64 72 / 40 40 30 40 80 Oak Ridge, TN 72 61 77 64 72 / 40 40 30 50 80 Tri Cities Airport, TN 71 56 76 61 72 / 30 40 40 30 80.
323 AM CDT Wed Mar 18 2020 A warm front stretches across Northern Louisiana to Central Alabama this morning.
955 PM PDT Tue Mar 17 2020 A cold low pressure system will bring scattered showers to the region as it moves across northern Baja.
A warm front will lift Nwrd Wed morning, with SHRA/TSRA developing and moving Nwrd ahead of the boundary. Warm front to the S of AR wl begin to lift sloly late tngt and Wed, with rain chances incrsg, along and N of the bndry.
Ceilings will be variable ahead of, and within, the progressive precip shield, however a trend toward widespread IFR to periodic LIFR ceilings are likely north of advancing sfc warm front. additional shower and thunderstorms were ongoing/developing to the south across Central Texas along and near a warm front and also along a surface boundary over the Texas Big Bend area. The warm front looks to cross the Red River late tonight with warming temps and precipitable water values increasing into the 1. Ongoing cloud cover along with the approaching warm front should keep temps overnight from cooling too much more over the next few hours. overnight lows in the low/mid 50s remain possible. though temps around 12z Wednesday look to range from the lower 50s near the Missouri border to the low 60s near the Red River.
Once the fog begins to scatter out this morning, this will leave mostly cloudy skies with chances of showers gradually increasing as a warm front lifts north today. High temperatures today will be warmer with highs in the low to mid 70s expected.
A low pressure area that has split off and formed from the low that brought us precipitation over the weekend is over Northern Nevada. This low will keep unsettled weather over the advisory area overnight and tomorrow morning therefore I have extended the advisory through 11 AM tomorrow morning. Showery weather will continue as the deep, cold closed low continues to move slowly south and is now off the coast of central/southern California. As snow showers taper off tomorrow afternoon, the higher elevation of the Sierra could see an additional. The foothills and mountains will span the 30s to low 60s, with the coldest temps being found at the higher elevations.
Dry weather will continue through much of today as high pressure completes a slide across the region.
144 AM EDT Wed Mar 18 2020 Decreasing clouds this evening with skies becoming mainly clear later tonight as an area of high pressure drifts overhead.
Otherwise, temps are considerably warmer in many locations than the last few nights, especially across the Blue Mountain Foothills, portions of the Columbia Basin and especially central Oregon.
As the warm front lifts north expect much warmer temps to surge north as well with highs in the upper 70s across north MS. Surface analysis this afternoon places a warm front across Southern Georgia, Central Alabama, Southern Mississippi, then back into Northeast Texas.
133 AM EDT Wed Mar 18 2020 Weak high pressure will remain over the forecast area (FA) today. Daytime heating and a weak warm front to provide a chance of showers and possibly an isolated thunderstorm this afternoon, mainly CSRA and S Midlands. The warm front will traverse the FA tonight.
1151 PM CDT Tue Mar 17 2020 Airmass is moistening as dew pts climb into the lower 30s into Valley City and Gwinner with the southeast wind spreading the moisture northward tonight. Lowering ceilings will occur overnight and broad but weak lift may be enough to generate wider coverage of mist/freezing drizzle. This will allow an inverted trough to approach the Dakotas, with a warm front coming into the southern counties. A lot of variation on what actually reaches the ground, but there is some agreement on not much RH in the good dendritic growth zone, indicating drizzle or freezing drizzle potential. Think there will be the chance for some freezing drizzle tonight into tomorrow, but amounts will be very light and impacts uncertain due to road temps and how far warmer air moves northward.
If we do indeed hit the low to mid 70s, this could provide a bit more instability than current models are suggesting and could allow for more robust storms to develop. A warm front will lift north today which will bring showers and a couple storms to Middle TN terminals. Cigs will deteriorate to IFR as the warm front lifts through the area. Winds will be light and mostly out of the east until the warm front moves through when winds will increase out of the south to around 10 kts with some gusts approaching 20 kts.
A low pressure system will slowly move through the region bringing cooler and unsettled weather through the remainder of the week. This will bring a second round of precipitation to mainly southern and eastern Utah, with rain in the lower valleys and snow in the mountains and some higher valleys.
342 AM EDT Wed Mar 18 2020 High pressure builds in for today.
411 AM EDT Wed Mar 18 2020 Weak high pressure will remain over the forecast area (FA) today. Daytime heating and a weak warm front to provide a chance of showers and possibly an isolated thunderstorm this afternoon, mainly CSRA and S Midlands. The warm front will traverse the FA tonight.
Water vapor satellite pics this evening show a well defined nearly stationary upper low positioned over southeast Oregon. Showers will continue to develop along the edges of the upper low center overnight while areas closer to the circulation center - southern Malheur and Owyhee counties and the lower Snake Plain - will see a lower probability of showers.
120 AM EDT Wed Mar 18 2020 Weak high pressure will remain over the forecast area (FA) today. Daytime heating and a weak warm front to provide a chance of showers and possibly an isolated thunderstorm this afternoon, mainly CSRA and S Midlands. The warm front will traverse the FA tonight.
933 AM EDT Wed Mar 18 2020 High pressure surface and aloft over the area will maintain dry and unseasonably warm conditions across the entire forecast area the remainder of today with ample sunshine expected.
Thursday: This will be a day of extremes as the strong trough over the West Coast will finally moves over the central Plains. In front of that trough will be strong warm air and moisture advection that will push temperatures over 70 degrees in southeast Nebraska and dewpoints close to 60 degrees. It will bring with it a cold front that will lead to strong cold air advection. The timing of the cold front will be key to the snow amounts. What I do have confidence in is that there will be strong winds with the cold front.
After a break in the precipitation tonight, more showers and thunderstorms will move across the area Thursday and Thursday evening, along with much warmer temperatures.
Dry weather will continue through much of today as high pressure propagates across the region. Thursday is forecast to feature the emergence of Great Basin low pressure across the Plains and Great Lakes with phasing into the northern stream. With low pressure passage across the Great Lakes, flood threat again looks to be alleviated via element progression and by better convergence areas which are forecast along frontal boundaries north and west of the area.
Some pockets of freezing drizzle are possible. An upper level closed low lingers over the California/Nevada border keeping most of the energy from this system to our south, while pumping some moisture up into The Treasure State. Some pockets of freezing drizzle are possible.
421 AM CDT Wed Mar 18 2020 A relatively mild day today as highs reach the lower 50s most areas. The 700mb low will move over central CO late tonight with a warm front extending across southwest and central Nebraska. Meanwhile a strong cold front will begin to move into northwest Nebraska. As the 700mb low emerges onto the eastern plains of CO Thursday morning, arctic air will quickly drop southeast behind the advancing cold front. Snow will continue Thursday evening, with the highest accumulation across the southeast. Model differences continue, as the GFS is faster and further north with the upper low than the ECMWF.