Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
230 PM CST Sun Feb 21 2021 Drizzle across central and northeastern MO this afternoon should transition to light rain and progress eastward into the remainder of the forecast area this evening as lift increases in response to strengthening isentropical and frontogenetical forcing ahead of an approaching cold front. The cold front is expected to advance from west to east this evening into early tonight bringing an end to precip and veering winds from the south-southeast to the west. Winds ahead of and behind the cold front could gust to 25 to 35 mph at times. On Monday, the upper-level trough associated with today's cold front will shift east of the Midwest with upper-level flow becoming northwesterly in its wake.
Temperatures are trending warmer than yesterday, so made slight adjustments to afternoon highs today. Current surface analysis places low sliding over the Oklahoma panhandle, with trough through the central into the northern plains. Upper level analysis places trough through the northern plains into the four corners region, with ridge over the west coast.
244 PM CST Sun Feb 21 2021 A nice warm up is in store for the next couple of days! Much warmer westerly component downslope flow will develop on Monday, melting off most of the lingering snow cover over far southern Kansas less a few patches and piles.
Gusty winds today will begin to diminish overnight as a cold front drags it's way south across the area around 06Z. Temperatures will cool slightly behind the front as north winds filter in cooler air, but highs still remain in the mid 60s to mid 70s for Monday. High pressure will build in behind the front, with clearing skies and lows in the upper 30s to near 50 along the coast.
211 PM CST Sun Feb 21 2021 An upper level trough is over the central part of the country and has resulted in a cold front pushing south across West Texas and Southeast New Mexico. The upper trough will move to the east on Monday with southwest winds across West Texas and Southeast New Mexico.
207 PM CST Sun Feb 21 2021 Leftover snow and ice was being eaten away with sunny skies, gusty south winds, and temps in the low to mid 50s. This will be the first night with above- freezing low temps since Feb 10th.
148 PM EST Sun Feb 21 2021 Expect increasing cloud cover through tonight, with crossing low pressure supporting widespread rain and snow early Monday. A warm up is then anticipated before interruption by a midweek trough. After the coldest temperature so far this season, gradual condition moderation is anticipated as ridging aloft ensues. Cold nwly flow will veer swly as the ridge axis treks overhead in response to a deepening, positively tilted central CONUS trough. It should also be noted that as sfc wind veers sly ahead of an approaching cold front, snow should mix with rain, especially for locations south of I-80. Accumulating precipitation will end by midday for most of the area, though snow may linger in the ridges for a bit longer before transitioning to light snow showers/flurries and/or freezing drizzle/fog with lack of ice crystallization and lingering llvl moisture.
An increasing pressure gradient due to high pressure moving ewd into the mid/nrn Atlantic Basin coupled with a cold front approaching from the west will translate into breezy conditions at times later today. Cooler air will push into the region behind the front, but nothing too cold, due to the source region of the high.
Warmer air aloft spreads east Monday and mixes to the surface with highs mainly in the 40s area wide.
Lots of melting going on and that will continue through the night with temperatures remaining above freezing and rainfall expected. Temperatures will remain well above freezing through the event, so there are no wintry concerns for a change.
1013 AM EST Sun Feb 21 2021 High pressure will pass overhead this morning providing dry, cold, and near calm conditions. A cold front will sweep across the region from west to east Monday morning with the potential for rain and mixed wintry precipitation. This cold dome of high pressure will retreat this afternoon, temperatures aloft warming.
(This evening through Monday) Early this afternoon, a weak cold front was moving through the Concho Valley and Heartland, with breezy northwest winds north of the front, and breezy southwest to west winds occurring south of the front. As of 12 pm, temperatures were in the low 60s to low 70s, which is about 10-15 degrees warmer than 24 hours ago. With clear skies and weakening winds, expect the combination of weak cold air advection and radiational cooling to result in lows tonight in the low 30s. NBM appears to have a cold bias due to the influence of bias- corrected model guidance (which factors in what the temperatures have been like recently - cold), so it is having trouble forecasting the warmer air mass. Thus, have nudged the low temperatures tonight and the highs tomorrow towards non-bias corrected MOS guidance.
Breezy north winds behind this morning's cold front will diminish and back toward west and southwest this evening. /issued 255 AM CST Sun Feb 21 2021/ Morning water vapor showing an upper trough moving through the Four Corners. The trough should be east of the CWA by late this with the associated surface cool front moving through early this morning. However, breezy north-northwesterly winds are expected behind the front along with cooler air. CAA will result in high temperatures around 10 degrees cooler than yesterday and just below normal for this time of year.
The latest RAP40 500 mb analysis in combo with mid-level water vapor satellite loop shows the the CWA under NW flow aloft with this morning's trough continuing a trek eastward into the Midwest region.
Winds decrease early this evening as a cold front approaches. This cold front moves across the area mid to late evening, around 03Z at KAUS and 04Z at KSAT/KSSF. A cold front moves into the area this evening, clearing clouds and switching winds to northerly. Meanwhile, an upper trough in the Four Corners region will push a cold front through the area this evening. The cold front sends drier and slightly cooler air to the area via northerly winds, only shaving off a few degrees from the previous highs.
High pressure ridging continues to prevail across the ArkLaMiss this morning and these conditions will continue through the day. After midnight, ceilings will become MVFR as a cold front enters the area from the northwest passing through GLH by 22/09Z.
The exception being the Rio Grande region where stubborn clouds this morning have kept it cooler, however, satellite shows clouds have eroded there now to allow the warm up take hold there, too. A cold front moves across our area this evening into the early overnight hours. A cooler and drier airmass filters in behind the front.
Even with the cloud cover, road temperatures there are well above freezing.
Latest upper level analysis revealed a positive tilt trough moving over the plains as of 18z. Northwest winds were gusty behind a weak cold front with some gusts around 35 to 45 mph. Despite the cold front, temperatures were warmer than expected with many locations pushing 50 degrees as of this writing. Weak high pressure will build in tonight helping to decrease winds across the area. Northwest flow aloft will commence in the wake of the trough with minor height rises through Monday afternoon. With the NBM having a cold bias, MaxT was nudged toward statistical guidance Monday which was a few degrees warmer.
Upper ridging aloft will produce another quiet day across the southern Appalachians and east Tennessee Valley.
A cold front moving through the region will result in a gusty NW wind through the afternoon. /issued 349 AM CST Sun Feb 21 2021/ WV imagery shows an upper trough digging through the Four Corners, and set to move through West Texas and Southeast New Mexico later today. If KMAF stays above freezing this morning, it'll be the first time in almost 2 weeks. To the north, sfc analysis shows a cold front moving through the panhandles, and this will drop into the area behind the front around noon or shortly thereafter. Areas over the SE CWA, which were cool yesterday due to lingering snow cover, could actually see warmer highs than yesterday before the front reaches them.
Scattered mid- level clouds continue to generally decrease in coverage this afternoon over the northern mountains of Colorado as lingering moisture behind the most recent storm system is eroded out of the lower levels. A sunny day is expected on Monday across the entire central Rockies region as a low-amplitude ridge moves across the southwestern CONUS.
1120 AM CST Sun Feb 21 2021 Key messages: - Wintry mix of snow, freezing drizzle, and freezing rain expected for parts of northern Missouri.
Based on reports we have received so far, the highest totals (i.
A cold front will approach the area this evening and sweep across the area overnight. /15/ High pressure ridging continues to prevail across the ArkLaMiss this morning and these conditions will continue through the day.
1016 AM CST Sun Feb 21 2021 Increased pops across the east this morning as snow and freezing drizzle continue to wrap back into the region. The upper trough axis will push through our eastern areas toward midday and afternoon which clear the last of the snow out. Afternoon readings will have no trouble reaching the low to mid 40s east to upper 40s to upper 50s west of the James valley.
514 PM CST Sun Feb 21 2021 Drizzle across central and northeastern MO this afternoon should transition to light rain and progress eastward into the remainder of the forecast area this evening as lift increases in response to strengthening isentropical and frontogenetical forcing ahead of an approaching cold front. The cold front is expected to advance from west to east this evening into early tonight bringing an end to precip and veering winds from the south-southeast to the west. Winds ahead of and behind the cold front could gust to 25 to 35 mph at times. On Monday, the upper-level trough associated with today's cold front will shift east of the Midwest with upper-level flow becoming northwesterly in its wake.
High pressure will support mainly dry weather and warmer interior temperatures through the beginning of the week. Otherwise, sunny and dry conditions prevail across much of northwest California as strong high pressure centered offshore looks to dominate the upper level pattern for the next several days.
/00Z TAFS/ VFR skies are forecast through the period with only scattered stratocumulus now expected behind a cold front to move through between 02Z and 04Z this evening. The exception being the Rio Grande region where stubborn clouds this morning have kept it cooler, however, satellite shows clouds have eroded there now to allow the warm up take hold there, too. A cold front moves across our area this evening into the early overnight hours. A cooler and drier airmass filters in behind the front.
Atmosphere looks potentially unstable enough for some of the ridges and peaks of the northern zones to hit 60 to 65 mph gusts. Have gone ahead and upgraded the High Wind Watch to a High Wind Warning for Custer and Fallon counties.
558 PM CST Sun Feb 21 2021 For the 22/00Z TAF update, a weak cold front is on the way across north Texas into our airspace, ushering in a Pacific air mass with surface winds out of the NW by 22/06Z for all terminals. The Pacific cold front for this evening is knocking on the door right now with SW flow about to shift to Northwest.
442 PM MST Sun Feb 21 2021 Upper level analysis shows a trough over the central states, and ridges over the coasts.
Leftover snow and ice was being eaten away with sunny skies, gusty south winds, and temps in the low to mid 50s. This will be the first night with above- freezing low temps since Feb 10th.
High pressure ridging prevails across the area this afternoon, but a short wave and associated cold front are poised to move through overnight. High pressure will quickly build back in on Monday, with clearing skies and cooler high temperatures around 50 in the north, to near 60 in the south.
High pressure continues to build into the region, bringing quieter weather to all locationsfor the start of the week.
Expect improving conditions thru the TAF period behind a weak cold front. /Issued 222 PM CST Sun Feb 21 2021/ Weak cold front has entered NE OK and will clear western AR by early evening. This along with an expanding low level thermal ridge and plenty of sun will allow temps to warm well above normal.
MVFR ceilings will move in from northwest to southeast through the late evening ahead of a cold front and line of showers that will move through the region. High pressure ridging prevails across the area this afternoon, but a short wave and associated cold front are poised to move through overnight. High pressure will quickly build back in on Monday, with clearing skies and cooler high temperatures around 50 in the north, to near 60 in the south.
103 PM PST Sun Feb 21 2021 Cool, light northerly flow will persist ahead of high pressure building across the region for Monday. Several cold fronts sweep through the Pacific Northwest and portions of western Nevada this week.
/issued 211 PM CST Sun Feb 21 2021/ An upper level trough is over the central part of the country and has resulted in a cold front pushing south across West Texas and Southeast New Mexico. The upper trough will move to the east on Monday with southwest winds across West Texas and Southeast New Mexico.
Temps still mild in the low 30s for the most part, so lows seem on track. Even with the cloud cover, road temperatures there are well above freezing.
Still looking for the possibility of an MVFR deck to develop this evening before the cold front's passage, and could even see some fog development near our coastal area sites.
The Pacific cold front for this evening is knocking on the door right now with SW flow about to shift to Northwest.
956 PM EST Sun Feb 21 2021 The Keys and coastal waters are sitting along the southern periphery of a large anticyclone covering the east coast and centered near the mid-Atlantic seaboard.
High pressure continues to move east of the CWA and the next cold front is now moving through northern and western parts of the state. Highs will reach the low to mid 60s with a northerly breeze.
This is all due to a weak push of moisture and weak warm front aloft, followed by a weak cold front.
/NEW/ /Now through Monday Night/ A period of quiet weather continues this evening although a weak cold front is moving through the region. Temperatures behind the front have fallen into the 50s and lower 60s while it's still in the low/mid 70s ahead of the front. Northwest winds around 10 mph will become light overnight as temperatures fall in the low/mid 30s. We're continuing to go several degrees warmer than the blended guidance on temperatures as it appears to be lagging on the warmup after last week's extreme cold.
A passing system will much cooler air today before another warmup through the middle of this week along with gusty winds at times. Temperatures are 10-15 degrees cooler than this time yesterday thanks to the cooler air mass behind yesterday's trough.
533 PM CST Sun Feb 21 2021 A nice warm up is in store for the next couple of days! Much warmer westerly component downslope flow will develop on Monday, melting off most of the lingering snow cover over far southern Kansas less a few patches and piles.
Tonight and Monday An upper trough moving across Wisconsin was producing frontogenetic forcing across central to northeast Wisconsin afternoon along with low level warm advection.
457 PM CST Sun Feb 21 2021 Satellite imagery this afternoon shows the midlevel low pressure continuing to spin in north central IA, sliding off to the east. Cooler temperatures are anticipated in areas that received fresh snowfall today. Expect highs in the upper 30s to lower 40s east of I-29 up to the lower 50s west of the MO River. Increasing flow aloft as well as a tight pressure gradient with low pressure working east, winds look to increase through the day and become strong in the afternoon. We'll see a couple of mid level waves and upper troughs swing through the Northern Plains given the predominately westerly flow.
832 PM CST Sun Feb 21 2021 Light showers continue to move into the Mid-South this evening ahead of a cold front that is currently located across Western Arkansas. The clouds are ahead of a cold front which is currently moving through eastern Oklahoma and Texas. Temperatures will turn colder tonight with lows Monday morning from the lower 30s to lower 40s. With the cold front over middle Tennessee Monday morning, the last of the rain should be exiting northeast shortly after sunrise. High pressure will start to build into the region during the afternoon bringing a period of dry weather to the Mid-South. Temperatures will be cooler on Monday but still milder than they were last week with highs in the mid 40s to lower 50s.
353 PM CST Sun Feb 21 2021 Satellite imagery this afternoon shows the midlevel low pressure continuing to spin in north central IA, sliding off to the east. Cooler temperatures are anticipated in areas that received fresh snowfall today. Expect highs in the upper 30s to lower 40s east of I-29 up to the lower 50s west of the MO River. Increasing flow aloft as well as a tight pressure gradient with low pressure working east, winds look to increase through the day and become strong in the afternoon. We'll see a couple of mid level waves and upper troughs swing through the Northern Plains given the predominately westerly flow.
626 PM EST Sun Feb 21 2021 A weak cold front will move through late Monday, followed by high pressure. Temperatures will generally bottom out this evening, then hold steady or slowly rise overnight as cloud cover thickens and low-level warm air advection intensifies as a weak coastal trough moves onshore. Low-level warm advection preceding the cold front should push temps into the upper 60s to lower 70s on Monday.
1049 PM CST Sun Feb 21 2021 For the 22/06Z TAF update, a weak cold front is crossing our airspace and already through KSHV by 22/06Z, ushering in a Pacific air mass with surface winds out of the NW by 22/08Z for all terminals. /issued 921 PM CST Sun Feb 21 2021/ As of 9:00 PM CST, tonight's cold front has already cleared Tyler and Mount Pleasant with surface winds arriving from the northwest. Temperature trends have been warmer today in southerly flow ahead of this frontal boundary.
A cold front moving east across the region through 18Z Monday will veer winds out of the west and then northwest, as well as a chance for SHRA and brief period of MVFR ceilings. Behind the front, afternoon highs will be a bit cooler than we enjoyed today, but a far cry from the bitter cold snap of last week. High pressure ridging prevails across the area this afternoon, but a short wave and associated cold front are poised to move through overnight. High pressure will quickly build back in on Monday, with clearing skies and cooler high temperatures around 50 in the north, to near 60 in the south.
Some showers extend west of the front associated with the upper trough. Today will be about 5-7 degrees cooler than yesterday.
219 AM EST Mon Feb 22 2021 Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb trough over the upper Great Lakes this morning which will quickly move out of the area.
921 PM CST Sun Feb 21 2021 As of 9:00 PM CST, tonight's cold front has already cleared Tyler and Mount Pleasant with surface winds arriving from the northwest. Temperature trends have been warmer today in southerly flow ahead of this frontal boundary. /issued 558 PM CST Sun Feb 21 2021/ For the 22/00Z TAF update, a weak cold front is on the way across north Texas into our airspace, ushering in a Pacific air mass with surface winds out of the NW by 22/06Z for all terminals.
/06Z TAFS/ VFR skies are forecast through the period with only scattered stratocumulus expected near a cold front. The exception being the Rio Grande region where stubborn clouds this morning have kept it cooler, however, satellite shows clouds have eroded there now to allow the warm up take hold there, too. A cold front moves across our area this evening into the early overnight hours. A cooler and drier airmass filters in behind the front.
As this rain/drizzle moves out over the next few hours, winds will remain up both ahead of and behind the cold front. While the cold advection early this morning could bring sub-freezing air into the area, think precip ends first and temps below 32 lag this.
821 PM PST Sun Feb 21 2021 Warm, dry Santa Ana weather with locally gusty offshore winds will continue through Monday before onshore flow builds the marine layer and cooler weather back inland. High pressure aloft, centered well off the Coast will still dominate our weather on Monday.
1004 PM EST Sun Feb 21 2021 Temps are currently a little cooler than forecasted across our SE half of our CWA, due to a delay in the cloud coverage moving into the region, these have been nudged a few degrees lower. As for today's cold front, the timing currently appears on track with frontal passage beginning around 12Z across our westernmost counties and progressing eastward throughout the day. The next upper level trough currently across the central U.
Warm air has surged poleward ahead of a cold front currently in southern Illinois and western Kentucky, which has resulted in temperatures in the mid to upper 40s, and even a few low 50 readings across central Kentucky. Temperatures this morning will gradually tumble behind the cold front, but should stabilize and slightly rebound by the early afternoon. Still, afternoon highs are only progged to get into the low 40s for many spots.
Temperatures are still expected to remain well above freezing.
1125 PM CST Sun Feb 21 2021 Cold front entered our northern counties late this evening and will work its way through the rest of the area overnight. High pressure continues to move east of the CWA and the next cold front is now moving through northern and western parts of the state. Highs will reach the low to mid 60s with a northerly breeze.
Cold front currently extends from KSHV to KCLL, with a band of clouds and sctd to broken showers developing along the boundary. the high tomorrow will be in the upper 50s to lower 60s which will be about 25 to 30 degrees warmer than last Monday's high temperature.
/issued 832 PM CST Sun Feb 21 2021/ Light showers continue to move into the Mid-South this evening ahead of a cold front that is currently located across Western Arkansas. The clouds are ahead of a cold front which is currently moving through eastern Oklahoma and Texas. Temperatures will turn colder tonight with lows Monday morning from the lower 30s to lower 40s. With the cold front over middle Tennessee Monday morning, the last of the rain should be exiting northeast shortly after sunrise. High pressure will start to build into the region during the afternoon bringing a period of dry weather to the Mid-South. Temperatures will be cooler on Monday but still milder than they were last week with highs in the mid 40s to lower 50s.
However, as a cold front approaches and moves over the local area through Monday morning, scattered showers will bring lower CIGs to low-end MVFR (potentially IFR in some spots) as well as instances of reduced VIS in heavier rain.
1255 AM EST Mon Feb 22 2021 A crossing cold front will support widespread rain and snow today. A warm up is then anticipated before an interruption by a midweek trough. Models are indicating that there will be enough warming in the lower levels to allow for most of the precipitation to end as rain before exiting to the east this afternoon. This warm advection likely will not be strong enough to reach the northeastern corner of the forecast area or the ridge tops. Hires model data is hinting that 1 inch an hour snowfall rates are possible in the northeast and on the ridge tops right around dawn and will continue for an hour or two.
1046 PM CST Sun Feb 21 2021 A nice warm up is in store for the next couple of days! Much warmer westerly component downslope flow will develop on Monday, melting off most of the lingering snow cover over far southern Kansas less a few patches and piles.