Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1205 AM EDT Wed May 26 2021 Showers and thunderstorms are likely with the approach and passage of a cold front on Wednesday. A dry and warm night is anticipated with lows about 15 degrees above average as per continued warm advection on the van of the Midwestern cold front. Though a pre- frontal trough may promote an isolated storm during the morning, convection should peak during the late afternoon and evening along and just ahead of a sfc cold front. Dry weather is expected Thursday as cooler, drier air behind the front settles in and high pressure develops. Temperature will be near seasonal averages, though areas to the south may see temperature rebound more quickly due to warm advection that will initiate later in the day in response to the next low pressure system.
Predawn temps ranged fm the mid 60s to the lower 70s. By Thu and Thu ngt, a new storm sys wl be tracking acrs the Nrn Plains and eventually in the lower Great Lakes region.
Dry air and subsidence under the ridges will keep the region dry through tonight with limited cloud cover. A trough of low pressure will slide into the southeastern US and stall. Highs will be above normal, with readings reaching the lower the middle 90s, but closer to around 90 at the beaches.
High pressure will rebuild, with much warmer conditions developing by Memorial Day Weekend.
A mid-level upper trof will slide into the OH valley by Thursday, with a trailing cold front draped across northern MO-southeast KS-northwest OK late in the day.
1214 AM CDT Wed May 26 2021 Summary: Severe thunderstorm potential for this afternoon and evening, much cooler temperatures Wednesday and Thursday, and warmer temperatures towards the weekend highlight the forecast. A cold front over far eastern St. Expect to see showers and thunderstorms along the cold front as it moves eastward out of the region by this evening. Given the parallel orientation of the shear to the cold front, clustering of storms will continue. However, this will likely be cancelled early as the cold front clears the region. Cooler temperatures will prevail for much of the week with temperatures in the mid 50s to mid 60s behind the potent cold front.
315 AM CDT Wed May 26 2021 A cold front will move through the area this morning. This system will continue to work east across the Rockies today while also drawing up a short wave trough from the Desert Southwest. This short wave trough is expected to advance out ahead and track across Iowa and Wisconsin Thursday.
The main story will continue to be the warm temperatures with highs in the low to mid 90s, a few degrees above normal.
255 AM CDT Wed May 26 2021 A short wave trough seen on water vapor is expected to push through the area today.
A ridge of high pressure will move into the central plains briefly on Wednesday, keeping us dry through most of the day. High temperatures will range from the mid 70s in northeast Nebraska to the low to mid 80s across the remainder of the CWA. This will pull a warm front into the region today. Some guidance continues to hint at the potential for a few supercells developing ahead of the complex, in the vicinity of the warm front across parts of eastern NE.
Post-frontal showers and isolated thunderstorms this afternoon are now diminishing as surface heating wanes and an upper level trough departs the area. An upper level ridge will build into the area tonight, then break to the east of the areas Wednesday afternoon. A thermal trough near the coast will move inland Wednesday. This will bring a short period of dry and much warmer weather to the area. The pattern will remain progressive, and the next upstream trough will move onshore Thursday. This will bring another round of precipitation to the area along with cooler temperatures. So, the peak will now coincide with the afternoon high temperatures and the lowest humidities.
229 AM EDT Wed May 26 2021 High pressure surface and aloft will hold over the region today but will begin to break down on Thursday as a series of U/L disturbances push across the northern tier of the U. Complex east coast trough will develop over the weekend and will extend to the Gulf of Mexico. The lowering heights will significantly weaken the strong subsidence currently over the region.
1009 PM CDT Tue May 25 2021 Summary: Severe thunderstorm potential for this afternoon and evening, much cooler temperatures Wednesday and Thursday, and warmer temperatures towards the weekend highlight the forecast. A cold front over far eastern St. Expect to see showers and thunderstorms along the cold front as it moves eastward out of the region by this evening. Given the parallel orientation of the shear to the cold front, clustering of storms will continue. However, this will likely be cancelled early as the cold front clears the region. Cooler temperatures will prevail for much of the week with temperatures in the mid 50s to mid 60s behind the potent cold front.
Freezing heights will be high, but some small hail can't be ruled out in the strongest storms. High temperatures today will likely be in the lower 80s, with dew points a few degrees warmer than the past few days making it feel a little muggier even though it won't be as warm. Tonight the upper trough will move off to the east and the cold front will weaken significantly. Slight ridging in the upper flow will provide a warm, humid and mostly dry day to start the forecast period.
Low level ridging over the western Atlantic waters will slide eastward today, as will the upper level ridge aloft of coastal SE GA.
Better mid level moisture support moves across the northern portion of the area during the evening hours which is when we have the highest pops advertised. Low temperatures are forecast to fall into the low 50s to low 60s. some cooler air moves through the area during the day associated with a cold front and passage of an upper level low pressure area. High temperatures are expected to be in the low 70s to around 80.
In the low levels cooler air will continue to filter south through tonight which should keep northerly flow from completely dropping off, likely averaging about 5 to 15 mph through the night. As this low pressure to the north moves into northern MN a ridge of high pressure will move across the Northern Plains and keep dry conditions in place for most of the area on Wednesday. While the mid and upper levels scour out moisture a bit, the low levels remain fairly saturated and allow for some weak instability with lift around 850 mb to 800 mb.
SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday): Mid-level ridging will continue to build over Deep South Texas for the short term. Water levels along the lower Texas coast have been about a foot over the predicted tides over the last few days, but guidance is showing water levels beginning to lower as swell periods and wave heights decrease.
321 AM CDT Wed May 26 2021 Upper level short wave ridging will move slowly across the forecast area today, shifting eastward to western Oklahoma by peak heating. This ridging will be replaced by west-southwest mid to upper flow that will help mix the dryline eastward toward the TX-NM state line, and possibly a county or so deep into the forecast area by late afternoon. While the bulk of the upper level support will be well to the north of the forecast area in closer proximity to an upper level trough moving eastward across the northern Plains, isolated convective initiation is expected across the western part of the forecast area late this afternoon as winds near the dryline become more confluent and help overcome any lingering cap.
145 AM EDT Wed May 26 2021 High pressure continues to drive well above average temperatures across the forecast area through the end of the week. A cold front brings a chance of rain and a distinct pattern shift for the weekend.
439 AM EDT Wed May 26 2021 Weak upper-level ridging downstream will continue to push out of the region, being replaced by southwesterly flow and a very gradual increase in moisture in the short term. As has been the case day after day after day high temperatures in the low- to mid-90s are expected yet again today and Thursday, with lows in the mid- to upper-60s, both running about 5-10 degrees above normal.
Heights aloft rise slightly today as a weak upper ridge shifts east across Texas. Highs this afternoon will be in the mid to upper 80s in eastern parts of our area, and in the lower 90s across some of the Concho Valley including San Angelo.
Surface observations showed a very moist boundary layer over south TX with dewpoints in the lower 70s. Convection that develops this afternoon over the high plains is progged to move through NEB and eventually evolve into an MCS likely impacting north central and northeast Kansas. Later shifts will need to watch how the boundary layer evolves through the night as forecast hodographs show an elongating loop in the lowest 3km. Any storm on the southern flank of the MCS could possibly be surface based with the low level jet advecting warm moist air north. Because of this have issued a watch for the counties that look to have the low level jet noising in and strongest moisture convergence.
As the system heads east overnight, more widespread pcpn is expected to break out over the forecast area, and then linger into much of Thursday as an upper trof advects across the area.
925 PM PDT Tue May 25 2021 A deepening marine layer will bring cooler weather to the coastal, valley and mountain zones Wednesday and Thursday.
Nebraska is located between two systems right now with the previous low pressure system centered over Manitoba, leaving the state in northwesterly flow, and the next low pressure system centered over British Columbia, with a cold front drooping across the Dakotas. Tonight, there is some light upper level ridging over Nebraska, keeping skies clear and dry via subsidence. Upper level flow will turn to the northwest as a slight ridging pattern begins to take shape over the northern Intermountain West. This pattern should lead to clearing skies and highs ranging from the low 60s along the South Dakota state line to the mid 70s in southwest Nebraska.
1101 PM EDT Tue May 25 2021 Wednesday will turn very warm, prior to a cold front crossing the region and bringing a chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly during the afternoon hours.
An H5 upper trough continues pushing eastward into northern Minnesota and into the Great Lakes region this morning. Temperatures this morning are already much cooler, with widespread 30s and 40s.
Quick scan of the upper levels shows a broad ridge draped over the southeast CONUS and a trough dipping out of Canada into the upper Mississippi Valley. That trough will skirt the US/Canadian border as it tracks east Wednesday before heading towards the northern Atlantic Thursday. The track of those 2 troughs will cause the ridge over the southeast to suppress.
An upper trough over the northern plains on Thursday evening will progress east southeastward with time.
This will turn the low-level flow to the southeast across the Western High Plains with a rapid transport of moist air back into the area. By mid-afternoon, surface dew points should be rising to near 60 or the lower 60s across southwest Nebraska into the southern Panhandle. This surge acts as a warm front in a sense, and could help to focus tornado potential. A surface cold front will move across the area early Thursday morning with gusty northwest winds developing. Persistent lift and cold air aloft associated with the South Dakota H7 low will keep the threat of scattered showers across northern Nebraska, but clearing should be in full swing across western Nebraska by afternoon as downglide and drier air both at the surface and aloft advect southeast on the backside of the low.
A closed upper low moved over the region last night and has been causing light to moderate rain across much of the area. The low pressure system will slowly move across the region tonight and only a few lingering showers will remain by this evening. The next low pressure system looks like more of a wind maker than a rain maker.
A dry cold front will stall across central Utah today, yielding cooler conditions across northern Utah while warm and dry conditions persist across the south.
Building high pressure will then result in warmer conditions through Memorial Day. Meanwhile, onshore flow will keep conditions cooler near the coast, generally in the upper 50s to middle 60s. Another weak mid/upper level trough will push into the Pacific Northwest on Thursday resulting in subtle cooling.
416 AM CDT Wed May 26 2021 High pressure and weak ridging across the area this morning has kept skies clear across the area, with temperatures predominately in the 50s. Given the CAA continuing across the area with the high pressure and increasing cloud cover ahead of the short wave, highs today remain on the cooler side, from the mid 60s to mid/upper 70s across the southern third of our area. Ahead of this, an 850 mb warm front will set up shop north of Hwy 14, providing warm air and moisture advection. However, instability is lacking, with most models producing less than 1000 J/kg of MUCAPE, with the highest values near the MO River. As for the excessive rainfall threat, shear vectors parallel to the warm front would suggest some potential for training storms.
641 AM CDT Wed May 26 2021 High pressure and weak ridging across the area this morning has kept skies clear across the area, with temperatures predominately in the 50s. Given the CAA continuing across the area with the high pressure and increasing cloud cover ahead of the short wave, highs today remain on the cooler side, from the mid 60s to mid/upper 70s across the southern third of our area. Ahead of this, an 850 mb warm front will set up shop north of Hwy 14, providing warm air and moisture advection. However, instability is lacking, with most models producing less than 1000 J/kg of MUCAPE, with the highest values near the MO River. As for the excessive rainfall threat, shear vectors parallel to the warm front would suggest some potential for training storms.
Passing weather disturbances will brush the Desert Southwest and keep strong high pressure centered over Mexico. Water vapor imagery shows troughing over portions of the western CONUS with an embedded short wave spreading high clouds over the forecast area early this morning. This is a combination of the preceding afternoon being warmer than the previous day as well as the cloudiness. In fact, PHX looks to be a bit warmer than yesterday with very little spread evident in the NBM. The flow over the northeast Pacific and western CONUS amplifies over the weekend with a ridge of high pressure building near the West Coast. But just downstream of the ridge, a split develops in the flow leading to weak troughing over AZ, CA, and northwest Mexico.
an area of low pressure is visible on satellite spinning across Idaho early this morning. Expect this low to progress eastward in zonal flow today. This low will eventually ride a cold front. Any tornadic development should be favored early in the period when some isolated supercells are progged to develop across the high plains by late afternoon in the rich environment. expect a few lingering thunderstorms to start the day Thursday mainly southeast of the tri-cities where the aforementioned cold front should be located. This front will usher in noticably cooler air for several days.
Expect the upper pattern to be characterized by a high pressure system over the region (consistent with deterministic output), while upper disturbances move across the NRN 2/3 of the CONUS. Anticipate that the upper ridge will suppress convection Thursday.
Low pressure moving from the Central Plains to northern Illinois will bring clouds, light rain and much cooler than usual weather Thursday. Clouds, rain and easterly flow across Lake Michigan will make for temperatures in the middle to upper 40s over much of central and east central Wisconsin Thursday afternoon, with temperatures in the lower 50s near the Michigan border where they may be little or no rain and possibly some sun.
A secondary cold front will make it feel much cooler today with temperatures only peaking in the 50s up north and low 60s south. The threat expands Thu into Fri where the frost threat is much more pervasive extending south to our southern border as cool air is pulled southward by a passing low pressure system to our south.
537 AM EDT Wed May 26 2021 Showers and thunderstorms are expected today and this evening with the approach and passage of a cold front.
316 AM MDT Wed May 26 2021 Developing low pressure system to our west beginning to increase our cloud coverage this morning based on latest satellite imagery. A bit quieter on Thursday in the wake of the low as minor ridging builds in as pockets of vorticity advection move through the region in the afternoon for small chance of an isolated shower or mainly garden variety thunderstorm. Temperatures on the cooler side by about ten degrees compared to today.
411 AM CDT Wed May 26 2021 Some showers persisting across the north this morning as an upper level disturbance ripples through the southeast, signaling a shift in the pattern from the ridging that has dominated the SE CONUS. Both high pressure at the surface and aloft will finally begin weakening off the southeast coast of the United States heading into Memorial Day Weekend.
Some showers persisting across the north this morning as an upper level disturbance ripples through the southeast, signaling a shift in the pattern from the ridging that has dominated the SE CONUS. Both high pressure at the surface and aloft will finally begin weakening off the southeast coast of the United States heading into Memorial Day Weekend.
829 AM EDT Wed May 26 2021 Showers and thunderstorms are expected today and this evening with the approach and passage of a cold front.
Southwest flow aloft will be in place over the Central High Plains for much of the day with an upper low to the northwest of the area. Cooler temperatures and quieter conditions are expected Thursday as the trough moves out of the region and a cold front moves through. High temperatures will range from the low 70s in the northeastern part of the area to the upper 70s/low 80s in the southeastern part of the area.
603 AM CDT Wed May 26 2021 Scattered showers and a few storms this morning will give way to sunshine and warmth this afternoon with highs in the low to mid 80s across central Illinois.
802 AM EDT Wed May 26 2021 High pressure continues to drive well above average temperatures across the forecast area through the end of the week. A cold front brings a chance of showers and thunderstorms and a distinct pattern shift for the weekend. A ridge axis centered along/just off the coast will slide southeast and flatten as the day progresses. A weak cold front will remain north of the forecast area through the day on Thursday and into Thursday night.
500 AM MDT Wed May 26 2021 Developing low pressure system to our west beginning to increase our cloud coverage this morning based on latest satellite imagery. A bit quieter on Thursday in the wake of the low as minor ridging builds in as pockets of vorticity advection move through the region in the afternoon for small chance of an isolated shower or mainly garden variety thunderstorm. Temperatures on the cooler side by about ten degrees compared to today.
/Issued 439 AM EDT Wed May 26 2021/ Weak upper-level ridging downstream will continue to push out of the region, being replaced by southwesterly flow and a very gradual increase in moisture in the short term. As has been the case day after day after day high temperatures in the low- to mid-90s are expected yet again today and Thursday, with lows in the mid- to upper-60s, both running about 5-10 degrees above normal.
303 AM MDT Wed May 26 2021 Low pressure will bring increasing rain chances to portions of NE Montana today, mainly south of the Missouri River.
Cloud cover and rain should help to keep temperatures a bit cooler today, with highs generally in the mid-to- upper 80s. Cloud cover may also linger across the area overnight as the upper trough slowly drifts to the southeast across the region.
413 AM CDT Wed May 26 2021 Some showers persisting across the north this morning as an upper level disturbance ripples through the southeast, signaling a shift in the pattern from the ridging that has dominated the SE CONUS. Both high pressure at the surface and aloft will finally begin weakening off the southeast coast of the United States heading into Memorial Day Weekend.
856 AM EDT Wed May 26 2021 Shower and storm chances increase today as a cold front drops into the region.
Dry and mild conditions today, with afternoon highs in the low 70s across northern NV, and upper 70s in valley's across central NV. Warmer on Thursday with dry conditions continuing. Clear skies across the CWA early this morning as weak high pressure approaches from the west. Under the weak ridge, winds will be light, and at times variable today. The ridge axis shifts east tonight into Thursday, resulting in a slight southwesterly flow aloft by Thursday afternoon, which will help push the afternoon highs up toward 80 degrees in most valley locations.
Current temperatures are running up to 10 degrees cooler compared to 24 hours ago and range from the 30s in the mountain valleys, to the mid 50s to mid 60s across the Central Valley. Slightly warmer temperatures are expected today as highs climb into the lower 90s across the Central Valley. Another minor cool down is expected Thursday as a trough passes to the north through the PacNW.
635 AM CDT Wed May 26 2021 A cold front will move through the area this morning. This system will continue to work east across the Rockies today while also drawing up a short wave trough from the Desert Southwest. This short wave trough is expected to advance out ahead and track across Iowa and Wisconsin Thursday.
/issued 255 AM CDT Wed May 26 2021/ A short wave trough seen on water vapor is expected to push through the area today.
/issued 332 AM CDT Wed May 26 2021/ SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday): Mid-level ridging will continue to build over Deep South Texas for the short term. Water levels along the lower Texas coast have been about a foot over the predicted tides over the last few days, but guidance is showing water levels beginning to lower as swell periods and wave heights decrease.
High-level cloud cover is streaming across the area ahead of a trough axis extending down the Great Basin through central California.
From synopsis, A broad ridge of high pressure centered off the southeast coast will maintain moderate east breezes across Florida Keys coastal waters through tonight. Winds will gradually trend downwards as the ridge moves out into the Atlantic with the axis shifting southwards into Florida through the remainder of the week.
The cold front will exit the area to the east early this morning, with dry conditions and plenty of sunshine expected for the rest of the day. Highs in the low to mid 70s will be seen along and north of Highway 20, while upper 70s to around 80 will be seen elsewhere. Rain chances will re-enter the forecast during the pre- dawn hours Thursday mainly along and west of the MS River ahead of an approaching low pressure. The low may pull warmer and more unstable air back to the north, which could prime the atmosphere for a new round of thunderstorm development. Deep tropospheric WV transport downstream of the low will pull anomalously high PWATs -- 1.
1001 AM EDT Wed May 26 2021 High pressure will continue to ridge across the area into the weekend, with an upper trough gradually moving into the eastern US and allowing for a few afternoon showers and storms to move into the area over the weekend. High pressure will keep light winds and seas through the period, with afternoon sea breezes turning the E/SE flow to onshore near the coast each afternoon.