Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Winds to begin to back around to the southwest late tonight into Wednesday which will set up return flow and begin to usher in warmer air. Temps will drop fairly quickly this evening with the mostly clear skies, but should then level off or even warm some into early Wednesday as the winds back around and warmer air moves into the state. Highs Wednesday will return to somewhat more seasonal values into the low to mid 20s across the forecast area. /Wednesday night through Tuesday/ Upper ridging to be in place across the western/central portions of the US for late this week with mainly westerly to northwesterly flow pattern across region.
228 PM CST Tue Jan 16 2018 Sharp upper trough extending from Lower Michigan to Missouri is currently creating enough synoptic lift to trigger scattered snow showers across central Illinois. Satellite trends show partial clearing behind the trough axis across Iowa and northern Illinois, so am expecting clouds to hang on for a few more hours before skies clear from northwest to southeast after sunset. Sunshine will return to the picture on Wednesday, allowing temperatures to slowly moderate into the lower 20s.
The higher intensity snow showers will work south this afternoon/evening with the southward advancing trough/convergence axis. The convergence is expected to weaken during the evening as the trough pushes into metro Detroit. Mid level subsidence will take hold overnight as the elongated mid level trough axis departs to the eastern Great Lakes. Subtle surface ridging nudging in behind the departing trough may allow some breaks in the clouds, supporting min temps down into the upper single digits above zero. The low level flow will back to the west-southwest overnight into Wed morning.
A weak trof extended west into our area. At the same time, an upper level low aided in rising motion. A weak H5 ridge will lead to quiet weather across the area for the short term as temperatures warm back into the 20s for tomorrow. Other guidance is lockstep just below freezing.
May see a bit of a downslope wind event over the Coteau tonight into tomorrow morning as well, but with very little snow on the ground, expect the main effect to just be the potential for some patchy blowing snow along the higher elevation areas. Will see temperatures fall into the single digits above and below zero tonight, then the warmer air begins to take over, with highs in the upper 20s east to the lower 40s west on Wednesday afternoon.
However, the clouds behind the sfc trof currently across nrn IL/IA and into NEB, will swing south across the region today as the low pulls eastward. As the upper trof continues to move SE thru the region, warmer air will slowly filter in. Granted, not much warmer. However, these temps wud suggest some warmer temps in some areas, but have trended temps today twd a compromise. As mentioned above, with the upper trof pulling away, still expect slightly warmer temps tonight compared to early this morning. Still, with the light winds and snow cover, have trended aob the cooler guidance.
930 AM MST Tue Jan 16 2018 Upper ridging will be the predominant upper level feature through the short term period, resulting in dry conditions and warming temperatures.
/issued 538 AM CST Tue Jan 16 2018/ /12Z TAFS/ A couple more quick bands of light freezing rain will move across the JCT are for the next few hours this morning. Otherwise, dry air in the low levels is keeping ceilings VFR across the area. Still, we are seeing some freezing rain early this morning continuing from near Sonora through Junction and Mason. We are looking at lows in the lower to mid teens areawide.
Upper ridging will be the predominant upper level feature through the short term period, resulting in dry conditions and warming temperatures.
Despite the trough moving through the area however, precipitation is not anticipated and conditions near the surface are very dry. This trough will usher in mostly cloudy skies and help maintain the modest NW winds through the day. However, despite the southwest winds the wind-up will be tempered by the cold start to the day and strong northerly flow aloft on the backside of the departing upper level trough Highs will be in the 20s.
248 PM MST Tue Jan 16 2018 Pockets of freezing fog and stratus in the valleys of northwest Montana are lingering this afternoon, which has been producing occasional light snow. Fog and stratus are possible again tonight in the valleys as a ridge briefly returns.
The Arctic high pressure will have the strongest grip on locations around central Kansas where highs today will likely not get out of the teens in spite of the sunny skies. The Arctic high pressure will be slowly loosening its grip on western Kansas tonight as the center of the high moves into Arkansas.
Axis of surface ridging already occupying the local area is shown to retreat slowly east later today ahead of 850 mb temps warming from -12C to around -7C. Aloft, the base of a broad upper trough will slowly depart SE of the region by midday. This aggressive drying should allow a quick recovery of temps into the lower 30s in most areas per latest MOS and rapid update models. Northwest flow aloft will relax considerably by Wednesday as an errant trough passes 200+ miles west of the local area, so thicknesses will not see a considerable recovery until late week when westerly flow deepens.
356 PM EST Tue Jan 16 2018 Low pressure will produce widespread accumulating snow across New York and Pennsylvania through late tonight then begin diminishing toward morning. An elongated upper level trough from the central Great Lakes to the Gulf states will keep a deep southwest flow of moist air over the area through much of tonight. A weak area of low pressure over central New York and another low lifting northeast along the coast will produce an inverted trough over the area through late tonight. Not much change to the snow totals generally 5 to 7 inches with locally up to 8 inches in the higher terrain of the southern Catskills and Poconos.
That high pressure area will shift to the southeast and allow for winds to shift to the southwest.
209 PM CST Tue Jan 16 2018 WV imagery this afternoon showing a well amplified upstream ridge over the Rockies gradually approaching the central CONUS. large area of high pressure was in control over the Plains.
204 PM MST Tue Jan 16 2018 An upper ridge over Montana today will be flattened tonight by a Pacific disturbance. A strong temperature inversion over the area will weaken as a result and allow temperatures to rise in valley locations tonight with readings to top out close to the freezing/thawing point in some of the coldest locations Wednesday.
A high pressure ridge was located near YKN at 20Z. The ridge is expected to continue to move southeast into Nebraska overnight. As the high continues to drift to the southeast, winds will gradually increase out of the west or southwest - first from south central South Dakota into southwestern Minnesota and then after midnight over northwestern Iowa and northeastern Nebraska. The other concern is the increasing winds expected east of the Buffalo Ridge due to mountain waves. This will also help temperatures warm with temperatures near 10 degrees by sunrise on Wednesday east of the Buffalo Ridge. Gusty winds will continue near the Buffalo Ridge much of the day although by afternoon conditions for downslope winds will become less favorable allowing for some decrease in winds.
1153 AM MST Tue Jan 16 2018 A transitory ridge will ride over the area today and tonight. A weakening upper trough will move into NE Utah late tonight then move over northwest Colorado Wednesday. Only mid and high cloud will accompany this feature, with the slightest chance of flurries over the higher peaks north of Interstate 70. A ridge will continue building over the Great Basin Wednesday night and sliding east.
Stretched out short wave trough extends from Quebec through lower Michigan and into the central plains. the downstream leg of omega blocking across the western CONUS. as high pressure builds southward into the central/southern plains. But much warmer air presses into the western Great Lakes through the day. A continued rather stout pressure gradient between low pressure to the north and high pressure to the south will lead to more gusty winds.
The cold trough of low pressure across the plains is expected to shift east on Wednesday with high pressure nudging in from the west.
Weak and flattening ridge aloft moves overhead providing mostly clear skies. Warmer day with 700 mb temperatures near -1 Celsius yielding maximum temperatures in the 40s at lower elevations.
A few patches of low stratus could be found pushing southward along the eastern flank of the ridge over Iowa, Missouri, and far eastern portions of Nebraska and Kansas. Lows tonight look to fall to around or slightly below zero as the high passes overhead.
Further weakening of the convergence and increasing mid-level ridging should end bulk of the -shsn by evening, however a few flurries may persist. Tightening pressure gradient between low pressure passing well north of the U. /Canada border and strong high pressure sinking into the southern plains will result in the increasing low level winds late tonight and on Wednesday.
215 PM CST Tue Jan 16 2018 Early afternoon surface analysis indicated broad high pressure stretching from the upper midwest through the southern plains. This trend should continue through the rest of the afternoon with the approach of the ridge axis. It will also be noticeably warmer than today with 925 hPa temperatures rising about 10 degrees Celsius. Expect afternoon highs in the lower to mid 20s.
This ridge will turn winds more southwesterly over the region tonight, with winds strengthening overnight as the surface pressure gradient tightens. These southwesterly winds will also keep temperatures warmer than the last few nights. Even warmer temperatures are expected by the end of this week.
1129 AM CST Tue Jan 16 2018 Arctic high pressure was located over the northern and central plains at 08Z while an upper trough axis stretched from the lower Great Lakes into southwest Kansas.
Western foothills will benefit from weak lee-side troughing and remain breezy and relatively mild overnight.
A mild trend into Wednesday as much warmer air moves in from the west. There should be a period of clearing today before additional clouds arrive tonight as a warm front builds in from the west. No precipitation expected with this warm front, with overnight clouds and a persistent west wind developing resulting in lows near to just below zero. High pressure builds for Wednesday with warm air advection bringing in much warmer air where highs get back into the 20s to even the 30s by late in the week.
Cooler temperatures will continue especially east of Tucson on Wednesday.
Since temperatures are just about freezing now if not below, have ZR with PL in the terminals. Freezing line continues to shift south this morning and nearly all of S TX should be below freezing by early afternoon. Areas of light rain/light drizzle continue across the southern portions of the CWA with light freezing rain/freezing drizzle mixed with sleet occurring across the far western and northern half of S TX. Expect most areas to transition to periods of light freezing rain/drizzle and light sleet through the afternoon.
Cold and dry winter weather is expected to slow transition warmer temperatures later this week.
606 PM EDT Mon Oct 2 2017 High pressure will maintain dry and warm weather through the middle of the week. Peak heating this afternoon has pushed temperatures into the low to mid 70s around the region. Dewpoint temperatures have inched up from the last few days, giving us a higher floor to the lows than we've seen, but readings should still crater after sunset under nearly ideal radiational cooling conditions.
Temperatures remain around seasonal along and southeast of I-65, reaching the low to mid 80's.
The higher amounts of rain are expected to be closer to the front, across the southeastern CWA, where another three quarters to one and a half inches are possible. The front finally begins to move east on Tuesday, with weak high pressure bringing dry conditions by mid morning. Low temperatures tonight will range from around 40 degrees across north central South Dakota, to the lower 50s across west central Minnesota.
700 PM EDT Mon Oct 2 2017 High pressure will dominate the weather through most of this week. A cold front will approach the area over the weekend. With clear skies and winds likely to become near calm to calm later tonight, low temperatures tonight may be as cool if not cooler than this morning with around 50 inland to mid/upper 50s and lower 60s Outer Banks. High pressure remains in control of our weather again Tuesday.
Synoptic Setup: A large spinning low pressure system currently resides over the southern Canadian Prairies and Montana. a large ridge sets of the coast of British Columbia and is beginning to nose in over the Yukon Territories. Today through tonight: center of the trough will transverse through central to southeastern Montana through the afternoon and evening putting our western zones under significant precipitation. With dewpoints being near to just above the freezing line along northwestern zones the freezing line from snow/rain will remain retarded in these zones overnight. Snow totals will be the highest in the the Little Rockies and less so over the Plains in Petroleum and Phillips county and higher elevations such as the Snow Belts in Garfield county.
Moisture will lift back into the area ahead of the dryline with surface dewpoints climbing up into the lower to mid 60s(F). A cold front will push through western Kansas tonight allowing for cooler air to filter southward into far western portions of the state. A much cooler air mass spreading across western Kansas will limit highs climbing above the 60s(F) across west central and much of southwest Kansas Tuesday with the 70s(F) still possible further east. Precip chances will continue virtually each day through the end of the week as a difluent southwest flow aloft prevails across the Western High Plains downstream of a stationary trough axis.
Quiet weather will continue through Tuesday across central Indiana as upper level ridging continues across the area.
An upper level ridge is located just east of the area early this morning leaving the area in an upper level southwest flow. This has result in the pressure gradient tightening across the region behind the low and high pressures. The southerly wind is ushering in a warmer airmass as early morning temperatures are currently in the middle 60s to around 70. The warm air mass will remain over the area on Tuesday, but there will be more cloud cover resulting in highs being a few degrees cooler than today with readings in the upper 70s to the lower 80s.
Deep trough to the west suggests only limited forcing to arrive in our area next 36 hours with higher dewpoints and possibly low clouds from open gulf within 36 hours. Deep trough to west and open gulf suggests good chances for rain mid to late this week into the weekend when trough energy passes east. The current highs are in the lower 80s. However, if cloud cover is more widespread and thicker than expected then temperatures could easily be 5 to 10 degrees cooler.
Cold front which briefly passed through GUY late this morning has retreated north of all terminals. Southerly surface winds gusting to around 35 kt expected through most of the remaining daylight hours today, owing to tight pressure gradients in the lower levels. Moderate southerly surface winds prevail during the final 6 hours of this forecast, until cold front moves south again. Focus for the forecast remains on the timing of our cold frontal passage. The cold front is already knocking on our northern border thanks to convective outflows earlier on in the night. Tuesday we should see the cold front make another surge southward into the Panhandles and this will start our next round of area- wide rain chances.
123 PM EDT Mon Oct 2 2017 High pressure in control through mid week.
With the strong sly flow and 850mb temps around 16C, although mdls suggest mixing will stay just below 850mb, have trended aoa the warmer guidance for today. With mixing continuing thru the night as well as more clouds advecting into the area, have trended warmer for temps tonight as well.
An early morning surface analysis showed high pressure centered over New York state and extending south through the Carolinas. The high clouds currently over the area will move out later this morning but another round of mid/high clouds is expected to move in from the south this afternoon and evening, especially along and west of I-65. Dry weather will continue tonight into Tuesday thanks to a strengthening upper level ridge over the southeast US and mid- Atlantic.
319 PM PDT Mon Oct 2 2017 Cooler weather with breezy north winds early this week. Cooler than normal temperatures are in the forecast for the next couple of days as the jet stream brings cooler Canadian air across the West. These temperatures are several degrees cooler than normal.
A low and mid level inverted trough across the western and southern Gulf of Mexico will slide west, beneath the ridge anchored northeast of the area. With increased cloud cover and rain chances highs temps tomorrow will be slightly cooler, in the low to mid 80s.
311 PM EDT Mon Oct 2 2017 Canadian high pressure has built south into the area and will control the weather through work week. High pressure centered over Quebec Canadian has pushed down the Eastern Seaboard with cooler and drier conditions. With the axis of the high being over the area as well, this should lead to light to calm winds tonight. Have leaned toward the cooler Met guidance while also using last nights values as a guide going a couple degrees warmer, especially in the protected locations west of Interstate 95.
216 PM EDT Mon Oct 2 2017 High pressure extending into the area from the northeast will shift slowly to the east over the next few days. Upper ridge over the area will strong subsidence. Ridge axis remains to the west in the Upstate and NC mountains and some mixing possible overnight with low level jet around 20 knots. An upper level ridge will remain rather strong and centered just west of the area.
The upper low continues to take shape along the MT/SK border early this morning, while at the same time, clockwise flow aloft is developing to its north. As the low continues to deepen, this area of stronger lift is forecast to shift south into Central Montana and will be enhanced by a northerly upslope flow. The upper level low from earlier in the week will be exiting the region to the northeast. At the same time, a new slow moving upper level low will be developing over CA and will then slowly move northeast towards southwest MT. Expect a chance for a passing shower for a few days as the slow moving upper level low moves through.
Nearly stacked low pressure is straddling the MT/Canadian border. Colder air filtering in from the backside of the low will continue through central to eastern MT. Temps are expected to drop below freezing across northeast WY. Wrap around precip associated with the upper low will stay north of the CWA.
Those locales away from the cold front are clear to mostly clear at this time.
405 PM EDT Mon Oct 2 2017 High pressure centered over Southern New England will bring cool nights and mild afternoons tonight through Tuesday night.
The associated cold front currently moving through the Nebraska Panhandle will near the region tomorrow.
A cold front, currently nearing the Dakotas/MN border, will move into north central and central WI Tuesday afternoon.
A broad mid level trough remained in place from western Canada into the western United States. Several areas of height falls were noted with the trough. Strongest winds at 300 mb were still on the west side of the trough, so it may dig a little more today.
321 PM PDT Mon Oct 2 2017 A series of passing disturbances will maintain cooler than normal temperatures and breezy periods across our area through the middle of the week. Temperatures will then warm into the weekend as high pressure builds over the region. Upper level trough pushed into the Pacific Northwest over the weekend which allowed for a cool-down and strong winds across the region. Now that the upper level trough has pushed deeper into the Inter- mountain/Northern Rocky region, the district will continue to see cooler temperatures and possibly strong winds near and over the higher terrain of the surrounding mountains.
356 PM EDT Mon Oct 2 2017 High pressure in control through mid week. Southwesterly flow will continue to stream warmer air into the Ohio Valley. High pressure will begin to erode through the period with modest height falls aloft. A cold front associated with a pivoting short mid-level wave over the upper Great Lakes region will approach the area from the North, however the better dynamics and moisture availability is currently forecast to exist north of this region through the period keeping us dry.
/issued 339 AM CDT Mon Oct 2 2017/ While the upper ridge over the southeastern U. trough may send several small waves to the northwest of Oklahoma, on the northwest side of the upper ridge, while a front approaches from the north later Tuesday.
317 PM CDT Mon Oct 2 2017 Cold frontal boundary has stalled just to the northwest of the forecast area, currently near KHYS, southwest to just north KDDC. Think storm chances across SW KS will be more isolated in nature closer to the dryline/cold front triple point. Ketcham A little more uncertainty on how Thu and Fri will play out, as both the GFS and ECMWF show the frontal boundary lifting back north across the forecast area as a warm front, late Wed night or early Thu.
With more clouds than sun, somewhat cooler high temps in the low/mid 70s should work. The clearing trend should continue on Tuesday as surface pressures increase over the lower Appalachians.
A bulge of deeper moisture associated with weak inverted trough along the gulf coast is starting to lift north as evidenced by increasing clouds over Northeast Mississippi. As a result expect increasing clouds across the MId South today and slightly cooler temps today ranging from the mid 70s over Northeast Mississippi to around 80 over Northeast Arkansas. Highs on Tuesday will rebound into the lower and middle 80s.
315 PM EDT Mon Oct 2 2017 Extremely dry airmass in place (12z DTX sounding indicated 700 mb dew pt depression of 44 C and 850 mb dew pt depression of 49 C), as strong upper level ridge is in place (588 DAM at 500 MB). Stronger south-southwest flow will bring the potential of even warmer temperatures tomorrow. However, the low levels will be moistening up and attempting to cool, so maxes will depend on the amount of clouds around in the afternoon, as NAM indicating a lot of moisture at the 850 MB level, which could ultimately cause maxes to come up just short of 80 degrees. Preference will be to assume the NAM is exhibiting moist bias and will err on the warmer side, lower 80s, per inherited forecast.
Ridging at the surface and aloft will maintain dry conditions through Tuesday with a return to warmer than normal temperatures for early October. Mainly clear skies across central Indiana early this morning with high pressure centered to the east of the region.
WV imagery this afternoon showing a large upper level low pretty much encompassing the western half of the CONUS with the circulation centered over the northern Plains. The western trof splits into 2 distinct circulations on Tuesday, one centered over the Dakotas and the other centered over the Great Basin.
As the upper ridge builds in from the E/NE on Wed, this moisture will be shifting off to the W/SW portions of the CWA. The ridg- ing aloft should make for quieter/warmer weather for the rest of the week. 41 A non-tropical area of low pressure can be see in GOES 16 visible satellite imagery about 40 miles SE of Galveston and is moving NW around 15 knots.