Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Strong high pressure aloft over the region will promote warmer than normal temperatures across the coast and interior again today. A gradual cooling trend is expected by mid week as the high pressure weakens. In fact, ACV is 10 degrees warmer than at the same time yesterday. We are still anticipating a wind shift this afternoon which should keep temperatures several degrees cooler than yesterday, but the current temperature trends required a bump in coastal high temperatures for today. One more day of strong high pressure aloft and associated offshore flow is expected with plenty of sunshine and warm temperatures again this afternoon.
Water vapor imagery shows the upper level low near central Baja California nearly stationary while a weak mid level short wave trough was moving into the western Hill Country. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will persist into the evening hours as the secondary cold front, near a LaGrange to Pleasanton to Eagle Pass line this afternoon, moves through the area later tonight. Weak upper level ridge will be over the region on Tuesday.
Expect dry and warm weather as northern and central Nevada sits under a ridge of high pressure.
Currently in the upper levels, broad low pressure is spinning over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico and is forecast to drift south towards the Tampa Bay through tonight. This low is bringing cooler temperatures in aloft, which could help support a few stronger storms this afternoon/evening and again on Tuesday. At the surface, a ridge of high pressure is currently sitting off the Mid-Atlantic coast, while a cold front pushes into the southeastern CONUS.
1106 AM MDT MON SEP 26 2016 Clear skies are being reported across the forecast area this morning as high pressure continues to build over the Western United States. Under these clear skies temperatures have fallen into low to mid 30s over the high terrain and 40s to lower 50s at many of the valley locations. The models build the 500MB ridge of high pressure to 588DM over Eastern Utah and Colorado today with 700MB temperatures reaching 71 degrees over Grand Junction.
524 PM EDT Mon Sep 26 2016 A cold front with a line of showers will sweep through the region overnight.
328 PM EDT Mon Sep 26 2016 A cold front is currently moving across eastern KY as of 3pm today. Since NW flow began ahead of the actual cold front, and cloud cover is in place, expect cooler temperatures to continue to penetrate the CWA through the rest of the afternoon. It is at this point that we will really start to tap into the much cooler airmass to our NE. Strong NW to SE upper level flow will feed Canadian air into the region throughout the remainder of the short term thanks to a strong upper level closed low circulating to our north. Models continue to come into better agreement concerning a large upper low to affect the eastern CONUS early in the period.
253 PM CDT MON SEP 26 2016 With the cold front and associated precipitation southeast of the region, the primary story for the short term portion of the forecast will be an upper-level storm system that will wobble its way southward from the Great Lakes into the Ohio Valley.
Have not seen reports of any falling precipitation and temperatures have generally risen to or above freezing in the expired/cancelled areas as of 18z. Ahead of a cold front, a southwest flow aloft continues today with weak isentropic lift continuing in the 275-280K layer which is where the moisture is. Currently, a short wave is causing most of the organized light precipitation mainly in the form of freezing drizzle to fall in our eastern zones, east of I 29. This means that the freezing drizzle threat will probably be most acute this morning, with possible lingering trace amounts this afternoon. One exception is in our southern zones, for instance around Sioux City and vicinity, where temperatures will likely warm comfortably above freezing this afternoon. The cold front will then move eastward across the forecast area tonight.
This will keep snow going over the higher mtns through the day Tuesday with periods of heavier snow thus the winter storm warning there looks in good shape with an additional 6 to 10 inches of snow tonight through Tuesday. Some snow should also trickle east over the Cheyenne Ridge area into the far southern Panhandle but amounts lighter there. Otherwise colder air will filter into the CWA tonight as an arctic high settles down the high plains with cold temperatures continuing Tuesday.
352 PM EST Mon Jan 2 2017 A cold front crosses late Tuesday.
It appears that areas along I-70 will remain in the low clouds the remainder of the afternoon, which will keep temperatures in the 30s, perhaps topping out in the lower 40s around Hays. Farther south, despite absence of clouds, weak cold advection was keeping early afternoon temperatures in the 40s for the most part, with the exception being Pratt to Medicine Lodge, where the warmer airmass resided -- temperatures shot up to the mid to upper 50s. Temperatures will undergo a more steady decline after midnight, falling into the lower 20s to upper teens by daybreak Tuesday along/north of the Arkansas River.
129 PM MST Mon Jan 2 2017 Cold front will move through the area this evening with winds becoming northwest and increasing a bit. Might see some lingering fog and freezing fog near the front, but should be more patchy in nature with increased winds and associated mixing. Wind chills bottom out at around 10 below, slightly warmer than advisory criteria.
Upslope showers continue to develop across the higher terrain this morning. Northern Arizona remains under a strengthening west to southwest flow aloft in response to cold low pressure moving through the Pacific Northwest.
These mostly clear skies, light winds, and fairly dry airmass will allow for decent radiational cooling tonight, with low temperatures Tuesday morning about 10-15 degrees cooler than this morning in the upper 40s to upper 50s. As an upper disturbance crosses the Southern Plains tonight, it will send a cold front into Texas during the day on Tuesday. Expect the cold front to reach the Brazos Valley/Piney Woods areas by late afternoon and clear the Upper Texas coast by Tuesday night.
Tonight we will be stuck between the system to the south and the cold front to our north. Cold front will push through tomorrow morning with temperatures falling through the day. Chance of rain remains in the forecast for tomorrow as models continue to show potential of some light rain or showers near or just behind the cold front tomorrow.
113 PM PST Mon Jan 2 2017 A weak, passing trough will work with residual moisture to produce some light showers along and west of the mountains into tonight.
355 PM CST Mon Jan 2 2017 Have seen little if any reports of falling precipitation along/east of I-29, and do not expect any appreciable freezing drizzle to redevelop in the next few hours, so will cancel remainder of the Winter Weather Advisory. Big story behind the wave and associated cold front will be the increase in west-northwest winds tonight through Tuesday.
This activity is located roughly along a warm front characterized by dewpoints in the 60s to its south. As atmosphere destabilizes later this afternoon/evening and an upper trough over Texas approaches, expecting a more robust round of strong to possibly severe thunderstorms in roughly the 23Z to 05Z timeframe per latest HRRR.
Maliawco Water vapor imagery and 500 mb height field shows a large and distinct upper level low pressure system centered over Washington State keeping a stead SW flow aloft over NE Montana.
/Tonight through Tuesday/ Plenty of issues for the first several hours of the forecast prior to the arrival of the cold front. Initially, area of rain is progressing across southern and eastern portions of the forecast area ahead of surface trof axis. Temperatures in the far north have climbed right to the freezing mark but have seen little in the way of impacts today from the freezing drizzle/rain in the north. By the beginning of the forecast time frame a cold front will have worked through the area and will be filtering in colder temperatures, though not substantially cold like was seen in early December.
346 PM CST Mon Jan 2 2017 Low pressure over southwest Arkansas early this afternoon with a cold front to near Lake Charles.
153 PM CST Mon Jan 2 2017 As the Low pressure wave continues its out of the lower Mississippi river valley today into tonight, it will fill and lose some of its northward extent of instability that makes the inclusion of thunder a possibility. After a rainy/drizzly/foggy night tonight, the Low lifts on out/across the Commonwealth late tonight-early tmrw. A trailing cold front then makes its dive southeastward out of the northern stream, and continues to act upon the lingering/residual moisture here for a chance of showers through the day tmrw.
The main warm front still south of the CWA, with plenty of lift up and over this moisture gradient. The main upper trough will move in this evening. The marine layer/warm front will advance northward, but how far is the question.
A warm front and this vort max across the area was leading to areas of drizzle and rain across the area. This afternoon and evening, the H5 vort max, coincident with H92 fgen and a warm front across the area will lead to the development of showers across the area.
200 PM EST Mon Jan 2 2017 A cold front crosses late Tuesday.
SW winds will slowly shift to the northwest during the overnight period ahead of our next cold front. Going into the day on Tuesday, a cold front will work south across the Panhandles. The cold air will be quite shallow below 700 hPa in-conjunction with 700-250 hPa zonal mean flow, there is no synoptic driving force in the wake of the cold front for good CAA.
351 PM CST Mon Jan 2 2017 (Tonight and Tuesday) The main weather item in the short term will be the cold front that arrives on Tuesday. For tonight, clear to partly cloudy skies will prevail across the area, with light winds and overnight lows in the lower and middle 40s. The cold front will enter the Big Country Tuesday morning and will move south across the area during the day, clearing far southern counties around sunset.
A cold front will move across the terminals on Tuesday, with FROPA at KABI around 15Z and KSJT by 17Z. Lows tonight will fall into the low to mid 40s with light west winds and partly cloudy skies.
Temperatures were from the upper 40s in the eastern Ozarks to the low 60s over parts of southwest Missouri and extreme southeast Kansas where a few breaks in the cloud cover have developed this afternoon. Main focus will be with clearing of precipitation this evening and with much colder air entering the area behind a cold front on Tuesday. Most of the precipitation should end by 00-02z, but could see some drizzle during the overnight period as a cold front begins to track into the area.
333 PM CST Mon Jan 2 2017 Midafternoon GOES water vapor imagery showed a compact, nearly closed upper low over west central AR, lifting northeast. Surface analysis showed a 1005mb low pressure over west central AR. Looking beyond tonight, an Arctic cold frontal passage appears on track Tuesday evening.
400 PM EST Mon Jan 2 2017 Low pressure will bring widespread rain showers tonight into Tuesday.
1119 AM CST Mon Jan 2 2017 Earlier drizzle and freezing drizzle had ended a few hours ago, and visibilities across the area are mostly 10 miles. Temperatures in northeast Nebraska remain below freezing, so Advisory is good there. Farther east into west central Iowa, temperatures have nudged above freezing, but dew points were still in the 20s for the most part. Thus wet bulb cooling suggests any precipitation that falls will force temperatures close to freezing. Wayne and Oakland indicate roads have become quite slick due to freezing drizzle across several counties with one or two accidents already reported. cannot discount some patchy icing over nern Neb for a couple hours this morning given pavement temps up there are currently hovering around the freezing mark.
Still expect temperatures to warm into the 70s this afternoon and will need to keep an eye on temperature trends around Galveston Bay as lingering rain/cloud cover may delay heating today (and result in cooler than forecast temperatures). Medium range guidance is still not getting along as to agreeing when the second colder front arrives later in the week (or if a warm front moves back inland before that occurs). Winds will then shift to the N/NE by Tues night as a weak cold front moves off the coast. But looking ahead, models are still indicating a series of cold fronts moving across the coastal waters through the end of the week. The passage of the associated cold front with this line of storms later this afternoon should give us prevailing VFR conditions by tonight.
231 PM MST Mon Jan 2 2017 Unsettled flow aloft will keep the chance for mountain showers on and off throughout the week, but the lower desert elevations will remain mostly on the shower-free side. Latest satellite imagery shows a thick canopy of high clouds continuing to stream eastward between an upper low off the Pacific Northwest and a ridge across Mexico.
325 PM CST Mon Jan 2 2017 A cold front will move through the area overnight bringing an end to the warm weather for a while.
Upper trough now over east Texas will spread showers and thunderstorms into interior se Ga later this evening. A surface cold front will push across the area Tuesday afternoon. Cooler and slightly drier air will filter in behind this boundary with low temps expect to be in the mid 50s to low 60s.
235 PM EST Mon Jan 2 2017 Showers along a line south of the Lower Keys are dissipating as they move over Key West. The axis of high pressure over the western Atlantic extends across the Florida Peninsula and into the Gulf of Mexico. Due to the high pressure, terminal winds are out of the east to southeast at 10 to 15 knots.
With the exit of the short wave trough, clearing across the western third of Oklahoma and western north Texas has accelerated, with remaining patchy fog and low clouds quickly ending across central Oklahoma through 1030 AM CST. Cold front will move into northern Oklahoma by 06Z tonight and move over all terminals by end of forecast period. Models still similar with bringing initial cold front in overnight tonight. GFS appears to be having trouble with western extent of upper trough, with the ECM having better consistency on keeping strongly positively tilted trough intact.
Not much in the way of freezing drizzle impacts overnight, but this morning, have noticed a few of the east-facing webcams over northeast South Dakota are glazed over with an ice coating, so contining with a few more hours of patchy/areas coverage for freezing drizzle over the eastern forecast zones. so there may continue to be some light freezing drizzle/ice accumulations. This is the lower end for blowing snow issues. The rest of the forecast will be dominated by a slow moving 1040mb high pressure system.
A weak cold front will begin to move across the terminals in the 12z to 15Z time frame Tuesday morning. /issued 241 AM CST Mon Jan 2 2017/ Rain has been on the downward trend as expected as the upper low pushes off to the east. Drier air is following behind the low and will play a part in the weather later today. Winds will stay in the 15-20 mph range overnight as a cold front currently in southern SD surges southward and approaches the FA. In general, the forecast remains on track with significant changes arriving Tuesday with the first of a pair of cold fronts.
A cold upper level trough extending from the eastern Pacific through the northern Rockies will bring areas of snow across northern and north central Utah today and tonight.
207 PM MST Mon Jan 2 2017 Cold front will move through the area this evening with winds becoming northwest and increasing a bit. Might see some lingering fog and freezing fog near the front, but should be more patchy in nature with increased winds and associated mixing. Wind chills bottom out at around 10 below, slightly warmer than advisory criteria.
If cloud cover remains, temps may be slightly warmer.
Upstream a cold frontal boundary was advancing southeast from western Nebraska with pressure rises around 4mb behind the front. We've seen a wind shift to the north already but the main cold front/clearing line was pushing east of the Nebraska Panhandle at 21Z. The frontal boundary will scour the low clouds to the east this evening and visibilities will improve in the better mixing. Wind speeds will be steady/gusty overnight and into Tuesday behind the cold frontal passage with gusts of 30 to 35 mph. Upper troughing across the interior United States allow an arctic airmass to settle in across our region for several days.
A cold front will move into the NW portion of the state late tonight and into the early part of Tuesday. To start off the medium to long range period, a potent upper cyclone will be in progress along the U. At the surface, to the west of this broad upper cyclone, an Arctic High will spill into the northern and central High Plains, bringing another shot of frigid conditions.
Arctic high pressure will remain over the area at the surface through the short term with very cold temperatures.
The main story this evening will be an arctic cold front currently located over Central KS dropping south, leading to falling temps and gusty north winds overnight into Tue. Say goodbye to the warm temps for a few days, as the arctic high pressure drops temps initially into the lower 30s to upper 20s on Tue with max temps struggling to reach the lower 20s by Wed/Thu. At best, think light amounts (less than an inch) or a dusting of snow accumulation, given the high snow to liquid ratios expected (ie, fluffy snow). While parts of Cntrl KS (KGBD & KRSL) wl start out of the blocks VFR their align- ment w/ a weak sfc trof wud enable stratus to fill back in twd 00Z as cdfnt apchs.
209 PM CST Mon Jan 2 2017 Zonal mid level flow this PM is serving to keep a broad low level thermal ridge across the W TX/E NM plains today with high temps running about 5 degrees above normal. By Tue PM the MSLP ridge axis will be just east of the Caprock favoring the cold air to arrive via the backdoor in the ne CWFA. Cold air will then push back harder to the sw Thur AM as the ridge axis builds thru the W TX plains (farther west than Wed), much colder in most all areas. Cold air shoves s again on Sat followed by much warmer wx Sun/Mon.
Unsettled flow aloft will keep the chance for mountain showers on and off throughout the week, but the lower desert elevations will remain mostly on the shower-free side. Latest satellite imagery shows copious amount of cirrus moving in off the Pacific in a strong zonal flow between an upper low off the Pacific Northwest and a ridge across Mexico.
916 AM MST Mon Jan 2 2017 Unsettled flow aloft will keep the chance for mountain showers on and off throughout the week, but the lower desert elevations will remain mostly on the shower-free side. Latest satellite imagery shows copious amount of cirrus moving in off the Pacific in a strong zonal flow between an upper low off the Pacific Northwest and a ridge across Mexico.
1042 AM CST Mon Jan 2 2017 Dry air in the low levels causing mainly virga this morning north and west of our area. There is a chance for light rain to move west to east this evening and tonight as the inverted trough moves through. A cold front will scour out fog Tuesday morning but reduced ceilings will remain through the morning and may improve somewhat during the afternoon. Freezing Spray may occur over the open waters where high wave heights will occur. Dry air in the low levels will help to hold off precip across southern WI until after noon today as an inverted trough approaches. This will give surface temperatures time to warm above freezing, so the chance for mixed precip is now limited to areas toward central WI.
147 PM EST Mon Jan 2 2017 Widespread rain is expected through tonight as a warm front advances slowly north through the area.
1258 PM EST Mon Jan 2 2017 WV imagery and RAP analysis indicated a mid/upper level trough digging into the Pacific NW. Strengthening WAA and 285-290k isentropic ascent ahead of the trough beginning late in the day could bring a little light snow into the west half of Upper Mi with accumulation less than an inch. Snow could briefly mix with rain, freezing rain or sleet for areas closer to the Bay of Green Bay and along Lake Mi, but again not expecting anything significant in the way of ice accumulation. There is potential for some light freezing precip over the far south central, but it doesn't look like anything significant. East winds of 15 to 25 knots today into tonight will give way to w winds to 30 knots Tuesday as low pressure moves through Lake Superior.
Week difluent westerly flow between a deep low pressure system over the Pacific Northwest and a shallow trough over Texas continued to bring a modest influx of moisture to the area. Meanwhile, a 130 KT jet moving through the base of the Pacific Northwest low will drive the stationary front across northern UT and southwest WY southeastward as a cold front. Jet dynamics will play a role in bringing snow showers to the lower elevations, otherwise orographics provided by brisk west winds will be the main driver for snow over higher terrain. Except for areas across the north which will become cooler in response to frontal passage, temperatures will run near persistence today, tonight and Tuesday.
805 AM PST Mon Jan 2 2017 A weak, passing trough will work with residual moisture to produce some light showers along and west of the mountains today.
Only slightly cooler air, with a northwest wind, will filter in so highs Tuesday will still be warm under cloudy skies, in the middle 60s. A secondary front looks to move through Tuesday night after 00z associated with an upper low north of the Great lakes. The cooler and drier air will finally move in behind this system with lows Tue night dropping into the middle 40s, which is still about 15 degrees above normal.
1242 PM EST Mon Jan 2 2017 Aviation Low pressure moving across the Ohio Valley will produce light rain and fog later today and tonight. A surge of arctic air will flow in behind the low Tuesday and lake effect snow will develop.
Upper trough takes on negative tilt as it moves up through the lower Mississippi River Valley this evening and overnight. System gets north and east of Middle Tennessee by 12z Tuesday but there is a cold front that will be moving through the Mid State during the day on Tuesday so have kept pops going during the day with temps falling during the afternoon following fropa.
Until the next cold front arrives, fog will continue to pose significant problems for most of the KICT CWA.
Surface temperatures are expected to be just above freezing this evening but if they are slightly cooler some patchy freezing drizzle is possible in the NW CWA. Winds will become northwest Tuesday morning with the passage of the trough.
High pressure near Bermuda continues to ridge in across the region, allowing a brisk southeast flow to continue with increasing low-level moisture and warm temperatures. The low pressure system moving across the Gulf states will begin to lift northeast as it moves through the Tennessee and eventually Ohio Valleys, with a deep longwave trough becoming established across the eastern third of the CONUS.
255 PM CST Mon Jan 2 2017 Showers moving out of western Arkansas right on schedule, with the center of the upper low pushing into central Arkansas. Overnight lows tonight will be above normal, with the brunt of the cooler and drier air likely to begin to move in during the day tomorrow.
Breezy to windy conditions are expected along the central mountain chain through mid week as an upper level trough slowly approaching from the northwest steers moderately strong flow aloft over New Mexico.
239 PM CST Mon Jan 2 2017 Warmer temperatures continue to nose toward the forecast area this afternoon, with the 2pm observations ranging from 49 at Topeka to 63 at Salina, with lower 50s reported from Emporia to Garnett. Meanwhile the northern counties have stayed socked into the clouds and drizzle for much of the day with temperatures in the low to middle 40s.