Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Conditions should dry out some for the weekend as the west coast ridge slides eastward some. The approaching ridge should also bring warmer temps into the region, with highs climbing into the lower 30s in western MN, to the 40s west of the Missouri River.
341 AM CST Tue Dec 5 2017 Pattern change well underway with amplifying western ridge / eastern trough and this pattern is forecast to be maintained through the forecast period. Frequent cold frontal passages can expected within this pattern with little to no chance of meaningful precip.
106 AM EST Tue Dec 5 2017 It will remain relatively warm ahead of an approaching strong cold front through Tuesday.
A gusty band of showers with embedded thunder ahead of a cold front has spread across all of southern Indiana and is pushing into central Kentucky early this morning.
High pressure will dominate the areas weather with dry conditions tonight and tomorrow. However the dry conditions will persist through at least midweek when some patchy fog is expected to develop over portions of the lower columbia basin. Temperatures tonight are expected to fall into the 20s and the teens over the higher elevations and the present short term forecast appears on track.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 37 49 33 46 / 40 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 35 46 30 43 / 40 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 34 47 30 43 / 30 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 31 43 25 40 / 50 0 0 0 TN.
This in conjunction with a high pressure ridge growing off the west coast will put the Panhandles into northwest flow aloft, and even a meridional flow at one point.
1250 AM EST Tue Dec 5 2017 Strong cold front Tuesday.
The true cold front is still across north central Kansas where temperatures are beginning to fall into the 40s. For much of the area, temperatures fell between 5 and 10 degrees with the wind shift, holding in the low 60s. The strong upper low shifts east towards the upper Great Lakes region tomorrow, placing the central plains under strong northerly flow aloft. Highs are much cooler and closer to average in the mid to upper 40s.
448 AM EST Tue Dec 5 2017 An upper-level composite analysis early this morning reveals a long-wave ridge extending from the northwestern Caribbean Sea north-northeastward to the Canadian Maritimes. The Florida Keys lie at the far southern end of this high pressure cell, in an air mass that is of a highly modified continental variety, close to maritime tropical. The long-wave ridge will shift slowly eastward, while a long-wave trough gradually deepens and amplifies over the central United States.
1238 AM EST Tue Dec 5 2017 Rain is expected late tonight and Tuesday with a crossing cold front. Maintained categorical POPs for Tuesday as the upper trough's associated cold front approaches and crosses the area. A major shift in the atmospheric flow pattern will be ushered in with the passage of the cold front, with a broad longwave trough in the ern CONUS and a sharpening ridge in the wrn CONUS.
Upper level analysis places low along the Saskatchewan/Manitoba border with trough dropping south into the northern and central plains. Snow has dissipated over most of our area with the exception being the southern James River Valley where snow continues ahead of the advancing trough. This has continued to produce some blowing snow over portions of central North Dakota, with blizzard conditions reported over the lower James River Valley. In addition, a fast moving wave sliding down the backside of the trough may result in some light snow developing over the southwest.
Temperatures should remain warm with gusty south winds continuing ahead of an approaching cold front. Through at least the middle of the month, a deep longwave trof will remain anchored over eastern Canada, extending south through the eastern half of the lower 48. Concurrently, an unseasonably strong upper level height ridge will extend up the west coast into the Gulf of Alaska. In the short term, a cold front will enter northeast AR toward midnight tonight, and drop through the remainder of the Midsouth by sunrise Tuesday.
335 AM CST Tue Dec 5 2017 A strong cold front is knocking on the door at 09Z. Once the cold front clear the area cold air settles in and several upper level impulses /clipper systems/ move through the southeast.
1200 AM EST Tue Dec 5 2017 Rain is expected late tonight and Tuesday with a crossing cold front. Maintained categorical POPs for Tuesday as the upper trough's associated cold front approaches and crosses the area. A major shift in the atmospheric flow pattern will be ushered in with the passage of the cold front, with a broad longwave trough in the ern CONUS and a sharpening ridge in the wrn CONUS.
after a light coating of freezing rain moved across my southwestern zones. dumping 2 to 4 inches with the highest wind speeds of the day. Northeast zones will have some lingering scattered showers through midday Tuesday as the low pressure system pulls out of the region. Presently the coldest morning would look to be Thu, when high pressure and decreasing cloud cover may translate to sub zero readings over NW MN and closer to plus 5 elsewhere.
1238 AM EST Tue Dec 5 2017 Showers will overspread the area tonight into early Tuesday morning as a strong cold front moves through the Ohio Valley. There will be a lull in precipitation for several hours before the next round of showers along and ahead of the cold front moves into the region later tonight. Exception will be in the far northwest counties where the cold front will move in late in the period with a sharp drop in temperatures. Strong surface cold front bisecting the area at 12Z to push east of the area by 15Z. Temperatures by evening to range form the mid 30s nw to the lower/middle 40s southeast. Broad mid/upper level trof to settle into the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley Tuesday night.
316 AM CST Tue Dec 5 2017 Strong low pressure over south central Canada will drift northeast over the next 24 hours while the pattern aloft begins transitioning to a high amplitude ridge over the western U. and full longwave trof over the east. Highs will be as much as 25 degrees colder today than Monday behind the cold front in west- northwest flow. Think the high clouds over central and southern portions of the area will thin out slowly today. There doesn't look like much if any chance of precip with this second front since last night's cold front shunted all of the low level moisture well to our south.
311 AM CST Tue Dec 5 2017 Brisk weather and much cooler temperatures have settled into the area. An upper-level ridge extended along the eastern US coast into New England, with another off the northern Pacific coast. Cold air had plunged into the central US, with an 850mb low centered in northern MN/western ON and 850mb cold front extending from near the WI-MN border through eastern IA/northwest MO/southeast KS. Behind the low and front, 850mb temperatures were in the teens below 0C from northern NE through the Dakotas.
With the initial push of precipitation into south central SD and the highway 14 corridor in SD over the past few hours, we have received reports of rain freezing on powerlines and causing outages when combined with the strong winds. With the low and mid levels cooling rapidly this evening, expect the patchy freezing rain threat in these areas to quickly switch over to snow. Will add mention of freezing rain to the winter weather advisory in south central and east central SD. Northerly upper level flow pattern stick around through the end of the week, with a sharp ridge over the west coast and troughing over the Great Lakes region.
Cold front has brought much colder air to the region today. It could also produce a few lingering snow showers over the higher terrain of the central mountains, north of Cottonwood Pass. The plains will see 40s, the high valleys mid 30s to mid 40s and the mountains will see generally teens and 20s for highs.
250 PM EST Wed Dec 27 2017 After the passage of a dry arctic cold front this morning, clouds are continuing to clear out of the far southeast portion of the CWA early this afternoon while much colder temperatures advect in from the north. Temperatures will fall into the low single digits overnight, with wind chills below zero in most locations by 12Z Thursday.
A ridge will slide through the area tonight, which will bring an end to the lake effect snow over most or all of Upper Michigan. In fact, there may be a narrow but possibly intense area of snow into Alger and northern Schoolcraft counties until 12Z Thu as shown by some of the high-res models. Broad troughing remains over the area this forecast period along with the cold air and lake effect snow. In the extended, GFS and ECMWF show a broad 500 mb trough over the central U. No gales are expected, but could see a few gale force gusts later this week through the first half of the weekend, along with periods of heavy freezing spray.
330 PM EST Wed Dec 27 2017 High pressure should maintain mainly dry weather tonight and Thursday.
High pressure aloft along the west coast will maintain a generally dry and mild west- northwest flow across much of Utah heading into the weekend. The upper ridge currently positioned just off the west coast will shift ever so slightly to the east the next couple of days. Drier and somewhat warmer air aloft will follow for the latter half of the week, ending any chance at precip and generating a modest warming trend for the higher elevations and for many locations of southern and central Utah.
A large scaled ridge off the California Coast will remain entrenched through at least the next 7 days. This will cause dry and warm weather to continue across the area under the protection from the ridge. A large scale trough looks to dig south along the the eastern edge of the Rocky Mountains. Unfortunately the ridge doesn't appear to retreat back west as this system moves into the US.
Conditions are slowly improving with freezing drizzle no longer being observed, though IFR conditions are still widespread.
255 PM EST Wed Dec 27 2017 Strong high pressure will be centered northwest and north of the forecast area. The high will direct cold air into the region. Low pressure developing long the front could bring a chance of winter weather to the southeast Midlands Thursday night.
1051 AM MST Wed Dec 27 2017 18Z TAF CYCLE Southwest winds should scour out the low level moisture and MVFR/IFR conditions across the eastern plains by mid afternoon, leaving VFR conditions until tonight.
428 PM EST Wed Dec 27 2017 Synopsis: A large mid-upper level trough is over eastern Canada extending down to the eastern Great Lakes. A mid-upper level E-W ridge continues to be located to our south over the Caribbean. A weak frontal trough is stalled over the NE Gulf, extending ENEwd over N FL.
In response an Atlantic ridge initially extending to the Mexican Gulf coast shifts south with it/s axis south of Cuba. Surface - High pressure in the Upper Midwest and spreading south to the Gulf tracks to the Lower Great Lakes and Mid-Atlantic states and along with sagging cyclonic flow nudges a weak frontal boundary from north-central FL into south FL. Longwave trough will continue over the eastern half of North America down into the Southeast. At the surface, high pressure moves through the region into W Atlantic while a stalled frontal boundary holds over S FL/ FL Straits.
/issued 1122 AM EST Wed Dec 27 2017/ An elongated trough of low pressure continues to sit stagnant over a majority of the eastern CONUS, with weak zonal flow over the Florida peninsula. East winds in the low levels, as seen on this mornings MFL RAOB sounding, has allowed for sufficient moisture and weak instability, generating a few passing showers along the east coast metro.
252 PM MST Wed Dec 27 2017 Large upper trough persist across the eastern two-thirds of the CONUS today. Temps across northeast Wyoming and the Black Hills have reached the 20s and 30s, as warmer air continues to push into the area.
A ridge anchored over the West Coast will ensure a continuation of dry and generally mild conditions through the weekend.
An inverted trough over the western half of SD at 06Z sliding east, combined with a trough sliding in from the northwest will spread light snow across our eastern counties tonight. 16in, with snow of 1 to closer to 3 inches possible at the high end of the spectrum.
1122 AM EST Wed Dec 27 2017 An elongated trough of low pressure continues to sit stagnant over a majority of the eastern CONUS, with weak zonal flow over the Florida peninsula. East winds in the low levels, as seen on this mornings MFL RAOB sounding, has allowed for sufficient moisture and weak instability, generating a few passing showers along the east coast metro.
1145 AM EST Wed Dec 27 2017 Strong high pressure will be centered northwest and north of the forecast area through Thursday night. The high will direct cold air into the region. An area of low pressure along the front will bring light rain to much of the area this morning. Another low may bring light precipitation to the southeast section of the forecast area Thursday and Thursday night with freezing rain possible Thursday night.
Delta-T 850 mb values will be on the increase so we should warm up to anywhere from the mid 30s far north to the lower 40s far south.
223 PM MST Wed Dec 27 2017 High pressure will continue to sit over the region this week with only periods of high clouds spilling into the area. With a dry airmass locked in place, seasonable morning temperatures will be followed by afternoon highs warmer than average into the 70s.
1037 AM CST Wed Dec 27 2017 Arctic high pressure at the surface centered over NRN MO this Wednesday morning. Currently this flow is zonal with no short wave troughs embedded and forecast to continue zonal through Thursday. Updated the hourly temperature curve, as most areas started out a little warmer than expected, but did not adjust the day time highs, given the cold air settling into the region. In fact, wind chill factors will be in the lower 30s.
Though the Lake Cumberland region may only drop into the low-mid 20s. For today and tonight, arctic high pressure will drop down into the northern Ohio Valley providing us with sunny skies and cold temperatures. Down across southern KY, highs in the lower 20s are expected.
152 PM EST Wed Dec 27 2017 Strong high pressure will be centered northwest and north of the forecast area through Thursday night. The high will direct cold air into the region. An area of low pressure along the front will bring light rain to much of the area this morning. Another low may bring light precipitation to the southeast section of the forecast area Thursday and Thursday night with freezing rain possible Thursday night.
So despite two massive anticyclones moving through our region in the next 7 days it will difficult for most locations to pop below 0F.
Low temperatures will be much warmer in/near the foothills tonight with the downslope flow while low lying areas on the plains will remain much colder.
Inversion conditions remain in the lower valleys with low clouds and fog. Expect warmer air aloft to move over the region, helping to strengthen the inversion in the lowest valleys in the short term. A mixed bag of precipitation will be possible in the lower elevations as cold air remains in the valleys and warmer air aloft begins to mix down from above.
Arctic high pressure across western Kansas has been slowly receding eastward this afternoon with lowering pressure in the lee slopes of the Rockies. The increasing southerly flow across the western High Plains is allowing a relatively warmer airmass from west Texas back into far western Kansas. MOS guidance suggests temperatures ranging from the 30s around Hays to the low 50s around Elkhart. A wind shift will move through the area Thursday morning and northeasterly upslope winds may keep temperatures a few degrees cooler than forecast.
Arctic high pressure will continue to slide southeast, centered over the upper Mississippi valley today, and the Great Lakes region tonight into Thursday.
High pressure persists across the region with record high temperatures possible during the next few days, especially across central and south central Nevada. Cooler weather is expected this weekend as a weak cold front moves across the region, but temperatures will stay above normal.
This will allow southerly winds to bring somewhat warmer air into Oklahoma and north Texas. At the same time, some weak isentropic lift of moist low levels of the atmosphere will bring a possibility of patches of freezing drizzle tonight and again tomorrow night.
245 PM MST Wed Dec 27 2017 Arctic airmass retreated across the plains today bringing in warmer and windy conditions to the area, finally relieving us of single digit temperatures from this morning. We can see a wide range of max temperatures ranging from the 50s in our southwestern CWA to the low 30s in our northeastern counties.
222 PM CST Wed Dec 27 2017 After an nasty morning across much of the area, ice has mostly melted on the roads as temperatures warm closer to freezing. Patchy freezing fog will also be possible so it would be a good idea to give yourself some extra time if traveling Thursday morning. After we get rid of that, expect sunny skies and much warmer temperatures by afternoon! Weak westerly, downslope flow will help push the Arctic air east for at least a couple of days.
This high will remain in place over the course of the day with mostly sunny skies and light winds. Tonight, high pressure will shift east and winds will return from the southeast and clouds will be on the increase. Thursday will be the "warm" day of the week as WAA filters into the area ahead of a dry cold frontal passage Thursday night. expect highs on Thursday in the lower 20s to the north and lower 30s to the south.
1150 AM CST Wed Dec 27 2017 Coldest temperatures of the season are close to, if not at record territory this morning as a 1044mb high pressure ridge axis slides directly overhead.
Weak forcing aloft may result in some snow flurries across portions of the region, along with an outside chance of some freezing drizzle in portions of western and southern Oklahoma and western north Texas. However, confidence is low with the freezing drizzle scenario, enough to leave out any mention in the TAFs at this time.
323 PM EST Wed Dec 27 2017 High pressure should maintain mainly dry weather tonight and Thursday.
Another cold night can be expected as high pressure centers over the forecast area. temperatures near zero along with slightly stronger winds in the higher elevations will be just enough to result in wind chill values of -10F or lower.
Although guidance is in disagreement with regard to the precise timing of the next cold front, a cooling trend is nonetheless expected by Fri/Fri night as the next arctic airmass surges southeast from Alberta/Saskatchewan into the northern and central plains.
2" isn't out of the question given the high snow ratios and the snow-growth zone residing just above the surface. Aloft, flow across the central CONUS remains northwesterly, set up between broad ridging/troughing over the west/east coasts. At the surface, high pressure is centered over the eastern half of NE, resulting in light/variable to calm winds across the CWA. while under the cloud cover they are a bit "warmer", in the single digits above zero. At the surface, the area of high pressure will continue to slide east today, resulting in more southerly winds across the CWA. For Thursday, it remains the "warmest" day of the entire forecast period, with highs in the lower 20s to near 30 possible.
High pressure slips east as a front moves south over the waters through Thu morning. High pressure builds in behind the front with a slight increase in winds.
SHORT TERM (Tonight through Thursday Night): Plains high pressure will continue to filter south over the area in the short term, with a westerly mid level component, although that component will veer slightly by Thursday night. Thus, not looking for a quick clearing out, but rather cloudy and continued cool weather, with light rain chances near the coast, where a coastal trough has set up just offshore, where it will persist. High temperatures Thursday will struggle to reach the low to mid 50s as weak cold air advection continues under cloudy skies and a continue chance of light rain, mainly across eastern sections.
On Thursday morning a weak cold front will push through the area, which will switch winds around to the north and northwest.
Colder and drier air continue to filter into the region behind a departed cold front.
251 PM CST Wed Dec 27 2017 A 1044 mb arctic high pressure system was centered over the dvn cwa providing plenty of sunshine but bitterly cold temperatures. Tonight: High pressure will slip off to our east this evening with warm air advection kicking in on the return flow. With the cloud cover and southeast winds temperatures will be much warmer than last night.
For tomorrow, the shifting high pressure will act to keep winds mainly out of the south through early afternoon. This will help advect some "warmer" temperatures into the area bringing highs tomorrow near the freezing mark.
may need to add Laramie County into the High Wind Warning. Wheatland-Chugwater will likely begin increasing once lee-trof slides east and mixing ensues 8-11A. Will leave the High Wind Warnings unchanged. Temperatures will be MUCH warmer today as the arctic air mass retreats, allowing highs to climb into the 30s at most locales.
The high-pop/low QPF snow event for this afternoon through tonight remains on track, and likely handled better by the 06-12 UTC global models compared to the high resolution suite. Arctic high pressure, sitting over the Northern Plains, will continue an eastward scoot through the morning centering over Iowa around 18Z. As the high progresses east, a surface warm front will push northeastward into the region. "Warmer" air will filter into the state, helping temperatures in southern and central areas climb above zero. The high temperature forecast ranges from the single digits above in the south, to the single digits below zero north. Still well below average though a little warmer than past days. Chances for snow will also accompany the warm front.
We're in a benign pattern, stuck on the eastern flank of a ridge near the west coast with a broad mean trough position downstream across eastern states. A couple of weaknesses at the base of the ridge with a decent amount of mid and high cloud pushing across our area over the past 36 hours. As the ridge sharpens a bit over the next 18 hours, we'll see much of the cloud cover pushed south of our area starting tonight. Above average thicknesses with even warmer daytime temperatures as influences from the ridge dominate our weather the rest of the week.
The patchy ice problem will probably continue tonight across the Big Country and northwest Concho Valley, especially on bridges and overpasses.
327 PM CST Wed Dec 27 2017 Low clouds have been thinning/lifting the past couple hours and temperatures have been slowly inching up toward the freezing mark on the Caprock, while lagging by a few degrees in the Rolling Plains. Some weak isentropic ascent and weak moisture advection as winds turn southerly may result in the redevelopment of low clouds and freezing fog across portions of the Caprock later tonight, with low confidence in the extent of any dense fog. Warmer temperatures return tomorrow with downsloping westerly winds pushing highs into the low 60s across the western South Plains.
With temperatures remaining below freezing, untreated road surfaces may remain icy for the remainder of the day. Most of the early morning light snow and freezing drizzle likewise should diminish by later this morning. /issued 422 AM CST Wed Dec 27 2017/ West Texas will remain under NW flow aloft through the weekend thanks to a stubborn upper level trough currently stretched from the north central USA to the East Coast. At the beginning of the week flow aloft becomes more northerly as the upper level pattern begins to modify and a large amplitude ridge moves on shore from the Pacific. The drizzle/freezing drizzle and snow that plagued the area yesterday and early this morning should start to diminish late this morning into the afternoon as lift diminishes and drier air takes over.