Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
A cold front will move south through the region late tonight/Monday morning with little fanfare. /issued 341 AM CST Sun Jan 28 2018/ Light winds, clear skies and dry conditions tonight has resulted in good radiational cooling and temperatures near or below freezing will be common across the region come sunrise. Look forward to a very beautiful Sunday as high temperatures warm into the low to mid 60s under mostly clear skies. Looks like we'll still see a secondary shot of cooler air Monday but it will only cool high temperatures by 4 or 5 degrees.
The slow moving cold front that was over the east Tennessee valley earlier today has finally shifted to east of the Appalachians at mid afternoon.
Temps Wed still looking mild, although the high could be earlier in the day depending on how quickly that front swings through. Some freezing rain/drizzle would result.
323 PM CST Sun Jan 28 2018 Colder dense air moving into the region this afternoon behind the cold front moving out of the state to the south. High temperatures will struggle to make it to the low to mid 30s.
Fairly vigorous upper trough moving through the southeast cwa now with attendant light snow. The cloud cover has been sporadic at best with thicker clouds associated with the upper trough over the south, with patchy lower clouds elsewhere. Models continue to indicate lower level moisture to increase over the eastern cwa during the morning as the trough departs and the moisture over northeast MN and northwest WI advects s-sw during the day. Tonight, the high pressure ridge moves over the area with light winds. Looks like mid/high level clouds will move back into the west during the night with some clearing of the lower clouds over the east.
1134 AM EST Sun Jan 28 2018 A cold front push off the coast this morning.
High pressure over the western states will result in dry weather and warmer temperatures for much of the coming week. High pressure remained centered off the southern California coast this morning. Over the next few days this high pressure system will build over Arizona before moving back to a position off the California coast later in the week.
/issued 343 AM CST Sun Jan 28 2018/ An upper level trough will continue to shift east across the Mid South this morning with a weak cold front settled along the northern Gulf Coast states. A strong cold front will sweep across the region on Monday with much colder temperatures filtering south.
As upper level ridging builds in from the west, moisture remaining over the northern mountains will be pushed away to the northeast. This ridge will then keep us dry and around 10 degrees above normal for Sunday night and Monday. The ridge axis will move through early Monday, allowing southwest flow aloft to return.
1119 AM CST Sun Jan 28 2018 Arctic high pressure will begin to settle into the region today, bringing much colder temperatures with highs in the upper teens to lower 20s.
302 PM EST Sun Jan 28 2018 A cold front will drop south into the area this evening, producing a few showers. A cold front will cross the region this evening. Models continue to indicate low pressure developing off the Carolinas will trek further out to sea, remaining east of the benchmark.
In the upper levels, Deep north and northwest flow over TX is associated with an upper trof over the upper midwest. This trof will move east toward the east coast keeping us in the extended downsloping and dry NW upper-level flow for the first part of the work week. At the surface, high pressure will continue to build down into the state giving us continued cool conditions and low humidities.
This is in response to the arrival of a cold front, dry of course.
High pressure over the western states will result in dry weather and above average temperatures for the coming week. A high-pressure ridge, associated with above average temperatures, is forecast to dominate the weather over the southwestern United States through much of this week.
1217 PM EST Sun Jan 28 2018 A cold front will spread rain across the area through Monday morning.
A mostly clear sky except southwest ND, where light snow in the far southwest is beginning to wane, as a 130kt jet streak atop a surface trof and baroclinic zone shifts farther away.
1123 AM CST Sun Jan 28 2018 This week will be characterized by a couple of colder days followed by a couple warmer days followed by colder temperatures with the chance of accumulating snow over the weekend. The veering winds behind the cold front this morning are picking up in the 10 to 20kt range with some higher gusts. Highs today should be around 20 near the South Dakota border to the lower 30s toward the KS/MO border.
High pressure aloft and strong and gusty Santa Ana winds will bring very warm temperatures through Monday.
930 AM PST Sun Jan 28 2018 High pressure aloft and strong and gusty Santa Ana winds will bring very warm temperatures through Monday.
Highs will vary from the lower 40s at Hays to the upper 50s at Elkhart.
High pressure gradually weakens thereafter allowing temperatures to cool slightly beyond the middle of the week, although still remaining above average. A strong upper level ridge continues to blanket the western states today, yielding lots of sun and very warm temperatures. During the next 24 hours, the ridge axis will be tipping eastward, which will precipitate an increase in the surface pressure gradient across southern Arizona. Afternoon temperatures will continue to run quite warm, under the ridge with near record H5 height values. While the ridge gets suppressed a bit mid-week, it will remain and possibly regains its strength heading into the weekend.
Northerly winds 5 to 10 KTs with some gusts to 15 KTs this afternoon will decrease to 5 KTs or less this evening as high pressure settles over our area. Reinforcing high pressure on Monday will increase winds to 10 to 17 KTs with some gusts to 22 KTs.
As a result expected snow totals continue to be trimmed and no hope there is some noticeable snowfall other than just the high peaks of the Park Range.
Weak disturbance embedded in the northwest flow to bring slightly cooler temperatures to the Panhandles on Monday.
352 PM EST Sun Jan 28 2018 A cold front will cross the area this evening then high pressure will build north of the region tonight into Monday.
133 PM CST Sun Jan 28 2018 Cold front has cleared the mid state as we head into the afternoon. Cooler air will sink into Middle Tennessee overnight, with temperatures settling well into the 30's by tomorrow morning.
to the upper 30s through the mid 40s in western locales on the warmer side of the boundary. clouds to remain over much of the region for the overnight hours clearing out towards morning as lee-side troughing to set up over the Front Range. and a strong H5 ridge nudging slightly eastward into the Rockies. combined with H5 ridging over the Rockies will give the area above normal temps. Locales west will be warmest in the lower to mid 50s. while eastern locales from Highway 25 east will enjoy temps in the 40s due to their proximity to exiting ridge axis to the east.
In the upper levels a trough is over the Eastern and Central U.
High pressure aloft will build into the region early in the upcoming week, followed by a weak weather disturbance grazing far northern Utah midweek. Moist mid level northwest flow will shroud northern Utah under clouds this morning but as the ridge builds in over the Great Basin this afternoon partial sunshine will return.
An upper ridge will pass over the state on Monday for warmer and drier conditions.
All in all conditions should improve slowly through the day as drier air on the back side of the approaching mid-level trof gradually filters in. A ridge of high pressure centered over the plains is currently building into the area behind a Pacific cold front. Ahead of the front a weak area of low pressure is near the mouth of the MS River. The majority of the rainfall continues to shift east with the low, however light rain is still falling over the coastal waters and South Central LA. The ridge will continue to build into the area today pushing the low farther away.
855 PM EDT Wed Aug 2 2017 A cold front will approach from the northwest and stall over southern Quebec tonight through Thursday.
Meanwhile, the low level flow is progged to turn east tonight which will allow for the low level moisture to increase along the foothills and higher elevations tonight. Just a few showers along with a weak storm or two over the higher mtns so far this afternoon. Cold front now over east-central Wyo into the northwest Neb panhandle is moving south and should clear southern parts of the CWA by early this evening. See little convection now with less instability and with better convergence pushed east along a pre-frontal trough over western Neb. Thursday looking mainly dry and cooler after some lingering morning showers near the Colorado border.
A very similar setup expected again on Thursday as the region remains under the influence of a broad upper trough. remnants of the old cold front. over the nrn Gulf, while high pressure remains anchored over the sern CONUS/Mid- South. Next few days look fairly similar to today with the trof hanging over the ern CONUS and periodic vorts dropping through the region. A light and mainly onshore flow is expected through the period once high pressure becomes established to our east.
The infrared satellite view from GOES-16 indicated the higher altitude clouds moving in a SW-NE manner from northern Lousiana to the Carolinas and Virginia. The moisture should make for slightly warmer night time lows over NW AL - so made minor adjustments in this area. General trof position at 500 mb will remain over the southeast U.
scattered mid/high clouds are forecast to develop across the CWA ahead of a cold front expected to move into Northeast Oklahoma and far Northwest Arkansas toward the end of the TAF period.
All the QG forcing is with the upr trof over the Dakota's. So that leaves tstm development solely tied to daytime heating and the weak convergence associated with the sfc trof that extends from Wrn Neb into Ern CO. The main forecast concerns for the short term is the cold front moving through and the associated precipitation chances. This cloud cover has kept temperatures a bit cooler in central Nebraska. The high-resolution short-term guidance has been fairly consistent with this light activity this afternoon and the secondary more potent thunderstorm activity along the cold front this evening.
/issued 407 PM EDT Wed Aug 2 2017/ THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT: The frontal trough that was across South Florida yesterday has lifted back north this afternoon as the western Atlantic ridge has begun to build west.
1158 PM CDT Wed Aug 2 2017 H5 analysis this morning had closed low pressure over Hudson Bay with a low amplitude trough extending south into the Great Lakes. West of these features, high pressure was located over northern California and northern Nevada. A ridge extended north into British Columbia. At the surface, low pressure was located over central South Dakota with a cold front extending west into central Wyoming.
Showers and thunderstorms will develop again Thursday morning through afternoon, with the highest chances from around the Tampa Bay north. Fairly calm winds and seas will then be expected through the upcoming weekend outside of thunderstorms, as high pressure builds in from the southeast.
The main forecast concerns for the short term is the cold front moving through and the associated precipitation chances. This cloud cover has kept temperatures a bit cooler in central Nebraska. The high-resolution short-term guidance has been fairly consistent with this light activity this afternoon and the secondary more potent thunderstorm activity along the cold front this evening.
Strong high pressure aloft centered over the western Great Basin will remain the dominant feature for Utah through the balance of the week. Water Vapor Satellite shows an elongated ridge from the Oregon coast through northern California, Nevada and Utah. An elongated mid level ridge axis centered across the Great Basin will maintain a generally dry and warm northwesterly flow across the forecast area through the short term period. Sufficient moisture lingering across the region will maintain a threat of convection across the higher terrain of the forecast area, as well as lower elevations of southern Utah where moisture content is a bit greater.
The pattern aloft over the region remains rather disturbed with a broad upper level trough and mid/level jet is depicted around the trough from the southeast Rockies across north Texas then through the Lower Mississippi River Valley with perturbations moving along in the jet. A very similar setup expected again on Thursday as the region remains under the influence of a broad upper trough. remnants of the old cold front. over the nrn Gulf, while high pressure remains anchored over the sern CONUS/Mid- South. Next few days look fairly similar to today with the trof hanging over the ern CONUS and periodic vorts dropping through the region. A light and mainly onshore flow is expected through the period once high pressure becomes established to our east.
Maliawco Synoptic Setup: Hot high pressure centered over Nevada has spread out across the western third of the CONUS and rides up a ridge through the Cascades and into British Columbia. The ridge being so far to the west has allowed an express lane for modified arctic air to form along the front range under northwest flow.
These should continue to diminish the next hour or two as forcing is very weak over the area with a weak broad trough the general pattern. With light winds through much of the lower atmosphere, movement is slow and precip amounts associated with these storms are significant despite the low coverage. Should be weak short wave ridging over much of the area over most of the night which may inhibit the development of nocturnal storms, but will need to monitor closely this evening. On thursday a stronger wave and associated cold front will top the plains ridge and move toward IL.
Winds will turn around to the north behind a cold front around mid day Thursday at DHT and GUY.
615 PM CDT Wed Aug 2 2017 Upper low pressure trough sinking southeast out of Canada late this afternoon with a cold front moving into western South Dakota. With the lift with the upper low pressure trough moving into our area along with the cold front pushing east tonight, still expect the showers and storms to increase in coverage late this afternoon into the evening hours. Expect much cooler air in behind as Canadian high pressure builds into the Northern Plains on Thursday with stratus clouds mixing out to cu during the day on northeast winds. Thursday night will feature high pressure over the region, so with the cool air mass in place along with the light winds, it appears lows will dip into the 40s for many areas.
/issued 356 PM CDT Wed Aug 2 2017/ Models in general agreement with each other as there are a series of waves and troughs moving across the area which is unusual for this time of year. An upper level trough with a northern and southern branch is moving across the region.
928 PM EDT Wed Aug 2 2017 High pressure will gradually move offshore through the end of the week.
Min temps tonight in the lower to mid 70s. 4 inches and mid to upper level troughing over the southeast states will produce scattered to numerous showers and storms.
855 PM MDT Wed Aug 2 2017 Atmosphere appears pretty stable this evening, so removed PoP's even from the high country. After highs today in the upper 60s to lower 70s will see temperatures about 5 to 10 degrees warmer for tomorrow afternoon under mainly sunny skies.
scattered mid/high clouds are forecast ahead of a cold front looking to move into the CWA just outside of this TAF period. Will continue to see the potential for showers and a few thunderstorms in the terrain areas of southeast Oklahoma and western Arkansas as well as northeast Oklahoma as the next cold front approaches the region from the north.
However, recent hi-resolution guidance keeps a 925MB cyclone just south of KACT overnight, which should usher in a swath of moisture and clouds within the 10-15 KT easterly flow around its north side.
Just a few showers along with a weak storm or two over the higher mtns so far this afternoon. Cold front now over east-central Wyo into the northwest Neb panhandle is moving south and should clear southern parts of the CWA by early this evening. See little convection now with less instability and with better convergence pushed east along a pre-frontal trough over western Neb. Thursday looking mainly dry and cooler after some lingering morning showers near the Colorado border.
630 PM CDT Wed Aug 2 2017 A weak cold front has settled south of the area, although with little change in airmass. However, there are still some differences in the low track, with the GFS farthest south, and the ECMWF/GEM maintaining a more northerly track across central Wisconsin.
1057 PM CDT Wed Aug 2 2017 Complex trough of low pressure digging through the Northern Plains this afternoon, with main center across northwest ND at early afternoon, but a leading weaker wave slingshotting through central SD. With even a relative lack of shear (30-35 kts at best) back toward the main trough, and lesser with leading trough, lasting storm organization will be a bit tenuous. Most favored area likely lower Brule areas toward the lower Missouri valley.
In the low to mid levels of the atmosphere, an Atlantic ridge of high pressure will extend across South Florida overnight. In the upper levels of the atmosphere, a trough of low pressure will be located over the Bahamas tonight. Despite adequate atmospheric instability and moisture in place for convection, sinking motion in the low to mid levels of the atmosphere will be responsible for a near zero chance of rain for the Florida Keys tonight.
952 PM CDT Wed Aug 2 2017 Most organized band of rain from southern valley into west central/nw Minnesota will continue to push ese overnight ahead of upper low which is now between MBX and JMS. rain vcnty of upper low more spotty and will be diminishing from n-s as upper low propagates se. Upper level low pressure system was over Hudson Bay with a short wave moving south on the western shoreline. Cold front with Hudson Bay system has back doored the area Upper level trough over northwest ND will move southeast and intensify. One upper level jet was located along the International border and another upper level jet was at the base of the trough.
536 PM MDT Wed Aug 2 2017 Just a few showers along with a weak storm or two over the higher mtns so far this afternoon. Cold front now over east-central Wyo into the northwest Neb panhandle is moving south and should clear southern parts of the CWA by early this evening. See little convection now with less instability and with better convergence pushed east along a pre-frontal trough over western Neb. Thursday looking mainly dry and cooler after some lingering morning showers near the Colorado border.
This is the result of a trough of low pressure off the coast of California which will increase west-southwest flow over the region advecting in the drier air.
An upper level ridge over the region will persist.
Upper level low pressure system was over Hudson Bay with a short wave moving south on the western shoreline. Cold front with Hudson Bay system has back doored the area Upper level trough over northwest ND will move southeast and intensify. One upper level jet was located along the International border and another upper level jet was at the base of the trough.
Tomorrow, the base of the upper trough will be swinging through, giving us another chance at showers and storms.
729 PM EDT Wed Aug 2 2017 A quiet night with a few clouds around, but showers and storms will redevelop again later Thursday as a vigorous system moves into the area ahead of a cold front.
Current Satellite shows cold front making its way south into NE Colorado. PW values are still meager compared to previous weeks with the monsoon flow cut off by the westerly movement of the upper ridge. Increasing NNW flow around the east side of the ridge will dominate the upper level picture over the next few days. Embedded in the flow is a upper trough and boundary with decent frontogenesis. cooler push from the frontal boundary. Temperatures will drop after winds switch more easterly behind the frontal boundary with lows expected to be in the lower 50s. Along with cooler temperatures as winds switch east expect increasing cloud cover to push up against the foothills and provide cooler temperatures for Thursday. Best chances for storms will be to the far east and over the higher terrain where more insolation will be possible.
656 PM CDT Wed Aug 2 2017 Complex trough of low pressure digging through the Northern Plains this afternoon, with main center across northwest ND at early afternoon, but a leading weaker wave slingshotting through central SD. With even a relative lack of shear (30-35 kts at best) back toward the main trough, and lesser with leading trough, lasting storm organization will be a bit tenuous. Most favored area likely lower Brule areas toward the lower Missouri valley.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 68 87 70 86 / 0 20 10 40 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 66 85 68 85 / 10 10 10 50 Oak Ridge, TN 67 86 68 85 / 10 10 10 50 Tri Cities Airport, TN 61 84 63 84 / 10 20 10 40.
Expect another round of diurnally-driven convection to fire Thursday afternoon, with the highest chances along KDAB-KTIX-KISM-KLEE corridor. The Atlc high pressure ridge axis will slowly build north into south-central FL. The ridge axis will keep pushing slowly north into the central FL peninsula. Winds S/SW ahead of ridge and S/SE behind it.
1123 PM CDT Wed Aug 2 2017 Isolated showers continue to linger around the DFW Metroplex in the vicinity of an upper trough axis.
1111 PM EDT Wed Aug 2 2017 A cold front will approach from the northwest and stall over southern Quebec tonight through Thursday.
Upper low pressure trough sinking southeast out of Canada late this afternoon with a cold front moving into western South Dakota. With the lift with the upper low pressure trough moving into our area along with the cold front pushing east tonight, still expect the showers and storms to increase in coverage late this afternoon into the evening hours. Expect much cooler air in behind as Canadian high pressure builds into the Northern Plains on Thursday with stratus clouds mixing out to cu during the day on northeast winds. Thursday night will feature high pressure over the region, so with the cool air mass in place along with the light winds, it appears lows will dip into the 40s for many areas.
Our area is situated on the southern end of low level ridging, rendering easterly flow at the low levels, and directly under a cut off upper level low, with southerly flow aloft.
Ridging at the surface and aloft will persist across the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes regions today. The mid-level ridge becomes centered over PA on Sunday as an upper level trough over the Deep South retrogrades westward.
232 PM CDT Sat Sep 23 2017 Through Sunday Afternoon: The combination of slightly above average heat and humidity over the region and an upper low translating west over the Gulf States is starting to kick off isolated showers and storms over the forecast area in the past few hours. For Sunday, the upper level low currently moving toward the Lower MS Valley will be sitting right atop the region and continuing to ensure at least isolated showers and thunderstorms form during the afternoon hours. Temperatures will remain warm but will likely be a degree (maybe two) cooler in most areas than was the case this afternoon. /BB/ By Sunday night a weak mid/upper low will become centered over the ArkLaMiss between an deep trough over the western CONUS and steep ridging over the eastern portions of the country.
1219 PM CDT Sat Sep 23 2017 The cold front has continued to push farther south than expected. A cold front stretches from just south of North Platte to just north of Norfolk. This evening and overnight, the best chances for thunderstorms will remain across the High Plains of Nebraska where the best 850mb convergence is located.