Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Late morning water vapor satellite imagery and upper air analysis depict a trough over the northern and central plains, with a trio of vorticity maxima moving through the flow. Overnight, mostly cloudy skies will begin to deteriorate as the upper trough begins to exit to the east, and morning lows will drop into the upper 40s and low 50s. As the upper trough continues to move away during the day Wednesday, subsidence behind it, as well as ahead of a building ridge over the western states, will finally allow for mostly clear skies and appreciable daytime heating.
246 PM EDT Tue Jun 1 2021 High pressure lingers just offshore of the mid-Atlantic coast through midweek.
Forecast appears to be on track for the remainder of this afternoon, with partly to mostly sunny skies and temperatures in the upper 80s and lower 90s over inland areas and the low to mid 80s closer to and along the immediate coast. A slight west to east temperatures gradient is expected on Wednesday with mid to upper 80s west (due to more clouds and better rain chances) to the lower 90s over interior south central AL.
Low pressure remains aloft to the east of South Florida near the Bahamas. At the surface, Atlantic high pressure will keep a steady easterly flow pattern over the region through the short term forecast period. Overall, a summerlike pattern has taken hold over South Florida aided by some extra moisture and cooler air aloft.
GOES-16 satellite trends this afternoon indicate a longwave trough axis over the Plains. A weak cold front will begin to move into the Lower Mississippi Valley on Wednesday.
/Tonight through Tomorrow Night/ A very weak cold front continues to make its way through the region, while having the greatest effect not on temperatures, but on rainfall.
Very dry mid level air and lingering subsidence on the northwestern periphery of an upper level low offshore the Florida southeast coast will limit convective development from the Tampa Bay area/I-4 corridor north into the Nature coast the remainder of the afternoon with best chances for showers or storms residing from Sarasota south to Fort Myers where better moisture and instability will exists. As for the remainder of the forecast period the aforementioned upper level low offshore the southeast Florida coast will drift south southwest through the end of the week as upper level ridging builds in over the Gulf and Florida.
Lows tonight are expected to only drop into the low to mid 50s, which isn't much cooler the current temps. The airmass will remain fairly moist and the upper level trough axis will still be west of the CWA, providing lift to force some non severe convection. The current upper level trough of low pressure slowly evolves into a shear axis that remains in place over the Ozarks for several days. A long wave ridge develops to the east, with deep troughing to the west. MVFR to IFR ceilings will persist across the region for the remainder of the day and this evening as low clouds remain overhead as a low pressure system passes through Arkansas.
By later this afternoon convection is expected to develop along the higher terrain of central/eastern New Mexico. Highs will also be a bit warmer tomorrow with highs approaching 80.
Current observations show expected coverage of afternoon cumulus clouds indicative of fair weather, which ultimately stems from high pressure now centered off the East Coast.
234 PM MDT Tue Jun 1 2021 An upper ridge over the West coast will drift into Montana this week and provide continued dry conditions with a warming trend.
215 PM CDT Tue Jun 1 2021 (Issued 215 PM CDT Tue Jun 1 2021) Tonight through Wednesday night: Low level anticyclonic flow persists with ridging extending westward from lower MI. However will at least carry some small pops in the northwest cwa closer to where this trough may co- locate with some 850/925 convergence and instability axis.
Wednesday gets interesting, as the upper trof swings into play with its dynamical energy. A marginal risk svr exists over our eastern half of the FA, as a tongue of absolute potential energy of 1000+ J/KG in the lower 1 KM nicely aligns into same corridor over our eastern half of the FA.
114 PM MDT Tue Jun 1 2021 Water vapor shows short wave crossing western SD/western NE early this afternoon, with large scale ridge extending westward to the west coast. At the surface, weak trof is located just southeast of the Black Hills and advancing eastward. A few showers/storms have developed early this afternoon, generally along and east of the surface trof where MLCAPE has increased to nearly 500J/kg. Showers/isolated non-severe storms will continue near/east of the surface trof into the early evening before diminishing with loss of insolation. The rest of the week will bring much warmer temps and dry conditions as massive upper ridge builds into the Plains.
157 PM MDT Tue Jun 1 2021 Northerly flow currently resides overhead as high pressure builds over the Intermountain West. Satellite imagery reveals diurnally driven cumulus clouds forming atop all ranges across the CWA, though towers with the highest vertical extent are focused along/east of the Divide. As high pressure fills into the Great Basin, an anomalously warmer air mass will follow suit.
340 PM EDT Tue Jun 1 2021 High pressure over the Atlantic will draw deep tropical moisture into the Carolinas over the next few days leading to increased rain chances and coverage. A pseudo-warm front moves in from offshore late this evening into early overnight hours, increasing dewpoints and cloud cover. With abundant low and mid level moisture being funneled from the south between high pressure offshore and a weak low to the west, expect tomorrow to be pretty cloudy. West Atlantic high pressure will advect tropical moisture across the Bahamas and Florida into the eastern Carolinas.
Highs tomorrow will be in the lower to middle 80s under ample cloud cover. Deep layer drier air will filter in as a trough axis shifts across the area.
The better chance for more widespread showers will come Wednesday afternoon as moisture increases area wide while the trough exits eastern Minnesota. Highs Wednesday will be running a few degrees above average in the low 80s, but the early wave of summertime heat will hold off until the end of the week. Light, but steady westerly 850 mb flow will advect a very warm thermal ridge axis east into the Northern Plains late this week, allowing for broad, upper-level ridging to follow.
1241 PM EDT Tue Jun 1 2021 A ridge of high pressure lingers over the area today.
Clouds continue to increase from the south during Wednesday morning as the mid MS valley low pressure system moves slowly toward the Ohio valley. The governing upper level trough is borrowing some jet energy from the northern stream while phasing with the trough moving across central Canada. Readings struggle to reach the lower 70s there while 80 is in reach toward the Tri Cities. The mid level theta-e gradient and background vertical motion field are boosted by the upper level trough and jet while continuing a steady eastward progression.
Instability profiles look fairly skinny given modest mid-level lapse rates, but proximity to the wave and slightly cooler mid-level temp profiles favors northern WI for the highest chances.
Additional showers and storms may develop primarily across the southern half of the forecast area tomorrow afternoon, along the aforementioned frontal boundary, which may lift a bit farther north as a warm front during the afternoon hours. Cooler than normal temperatures will continue the next 24 hours, with lows tonight in the lower and middle 60s, with highs Wednesday in the upper 70s and lower 80s.
438 PM EDT Tue Jun 1 2021 A progressive upper level trough over the central CONUS late Tuesday will affect the region during the short term period. One wave propagating through the trough will produce precip tonight in Wednesday, but models have trended drier for our area with this feature, holding the most significant precip to our west and north, and the new forecast reflects this. Another wave moving through the larger trough will affect us on Wednesday night, and with the entire regime shifting east and the system's surface cold front approaching, we will see our greatest POP with the second wave, along with the possibility of thunderstorms.
Chances for TS activity will remain the highest across southern and central AR through the period. Today Through Wednesday Night Scattered showers continue to lift ne across the CWA early this Tue morning downstream of a larger-scale upper trough to the west of the state. A weak upper level disturbance is moving NE towards the state early this morning downstream of this larger upper trough to the west. Chances for SHRA/isolated TSRA will continue beyond tonight as the parent upper trough to the west/NW will keep sending disturbances NE over the state through Wed afternoon/evening.
Dewpoints in the upper 40s north to upper 50s south are in place, with high pressure over the area.
Moderate southwesterly flow in the mid-levels (on the order of 25-35 knots) will continue across the region today, downstream from a positively-sheared longwave trough extending from southern Ontario southwestward into northern TX. Showers and thunderstorms will expand in coverage overnight into the scattered to numerous categories as the aforementioned upper-trough draws closer. A better chance for showers and storms will exist late Wednesday morning into Wednesday afternoon as a surface cold front will poke into the area.
An elongated trough of low pressure is over The Baja extending northeast into Colorado. Clouds have already started to form over much of the higher terrain this morning. Current forecast has shower/thunderstorm activity over the higher terrain southeast of Flagstaff. As the main trough axis moves eastward, the upper- level low at the base of the trough becomes cut off over northern Mexico. High pressures then builds to the north and west of Arizona, keeping the low locked in place through the week.
On Wednesday, the area comes under H5 ridging for a mostly sunny sky and with a weak surface pressure gradient, light winds at the surface at under 15 mph.
259 PM CDT Tue Jun 1 2021 Rather moist low levels and relatively cool temperatures aloft under the upper trof has resulted in diurnally driven showers across central Kansas in an environment with weak instability though decent lapse rates. This upper trof will be slow to move and vacate the area until late Wednesday.
247 PM EDT Tue Jun 1 2021 High pressure lingers just offshore of the mid-Atlantic coast through midweek.
A warm advection regime is taking hold across Central AL as a warm front lifts northward towards the Tennessee Valley with surface cyclogenesis ongoing near the Ozarks. This trend will be further reflected aloft during the overnight hours as the trough progresses eastward and we see an influx of deeper moisture. Today, we'll have another warm afternoon with temperatures ranging from the lower to mid 80s and rain chances less than 15%. During the mid to late afternoon, expect coverage of showers and thunderstorms to expand closer to the trough in our west while areas in the southeast will stay mostly dry and warm.
East to northeast flow will become more southeasterly on Wednesday as high pressure off the east coast moves further east. Patchy inland fog is possible late tonight and early Wednesday morning with low temperatures in the low/mid 60s inland and near 70 coast. Ridging aloft will weaken over the area on Wednesday as an upper trough approaches from the southern Plains.
248 PM MDT Tue Jun 1 2021 Upper ridge on west coast will slide into Rockies with a positive tilt into the high plains through the rest of the work week.
1206 PM EDT Tue Jun 1 2021 High pressure over the area today will result in fair weather and seasonable temperatures.
Early afternoon satellite loop showed shallow cumulus bubbling over the higher terrain mainly south of I-15, and cirrus streaming southwestward in northeasterly flow between the high pressure to our northwest and low pressure to our southeast.
301 PM EDT Tue Jun 1 2021 High pressure will remain offshore through the end of the week. An upper level trough will reside to our west during the middle of the week, before progressing through at the end of the week. Gradually falling heights and lowering sfc pressures are expected Wed into Fri as an upper level trough over the middle of the country pushes east and the Bermuda high shifts farther east. Sct t-storms are expected to develop Wed mainly west of the Blue Ridge, then increase in coverage Wed night as srly flow strengthens further. During the past 24 hrs, the models have come into better agreement with respect to timing of upper trof axis crossing the area Fri morning and, as a result, now show a drier scenario for Fri and into the weekend.
Currently, temperatures are in the lower 70s with filtered sunshine. An isolated shower or two can't be ruled out overnight near Highway 24, and overnight lows will fall to the lower 50s. Finally, an afternoon lake breeze will once again move inland and keep lakeshore locations a few degrees cooler.
Out west, initial convection over the higher terrain of Mexico could move eastward impacting the Rio Grande Plains.
238 PM EDT Tue Jun 1 2021 High pressure lingers just offshore of the mid-Atlantic coast through midweek.
155 PM EDT Tue Jun 1 2021 Quiet tonight with comfortable overnight temperatures in the lower to mid 50s.
Current observations show expected coverage of afternoon cumulus clouds indicative of fair weather, which ultimately stems from high pressure now centered off the East Coast. Wednesday will signify the beginning of some changes as the upper trough over the Central Plains amplifies and pushes eastward, setting up southwest flow aloft locally. While most convective coverage will remain well to our west closer to the trough, at least a few isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible Wednesday afternoon in far north Georgia. RW As the period begins on Wednesday night, an amplifying upper level longwave trough will be moving eastward into the Mississippi River Valley region. Southwesterly flow will be in place ahead of the trough and over much of the Southeastern CONUS. At the surface, broad high pressure in the mid-Atlantic will promote easterly to southeasterly flow over much of Georgia.
1244 PM EDT Tue Jun 1 2021 Unsettled weather returns by mid week with crossing low pressure, with dry and warmer conditions prevailing this weekend. Eroding high pressure will maintain dry conditions through tonight.
The end of the week will see high pressure over the western U. This will capture the southern portion of a departing trough, pulling it back west into a cutoff low that will be quasi-stationary over west-central Texas.
The main question of the day is whether we see any isolated showers develop later this afternoon across the high terrain of our eastern mountains. SR Chattanooga Airport, TN 65 81 66 80 64 / 30 40 50 80 60 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 63 77 64 79 63 / 10 30 50 80 70 Oak Ridge, TN 62 76 62 78 62 / 20 40 60 80 60 Tri Cities Airport, TN 59 78 61 78 61 / 10 30 50 80 70.
But the main chances will be overnight and into Wednesday morning as another area or two of showers/storms moves southeast off the High Plains.
- Warmer, near normal conditions expected for the weekend. Upper-level ridging will begin to build eastward late in the week and into the weekend. This will allow temperatures to finally get back to near normal levels, which for this time of year is in the lower 80s.
All sites are carrying VCSH/VCTS, with the highest rain confidence found at KELD and KMLU this afternoon. Overnight, a weak cold front will edge down across I-30 and help to bring in some slightly cooler and less humid air. Short term temps will be cooler, but close to average.
123 PM EDT Tue Jun 1 2021 High pressure will drift eastward off the coast today, allowing winds to shift more southerly across the lower mid-Atlantic.
Currently, there is an area of low pressure in the mid/upper levels of the atmosphere (being reflected at the surface over north central South Dakota), slowly churning along east-southeastward across the Dakotas. The area of low pressure aiding the development of these sct'd showers/storms will slowly work off into Minnesota overnight, taking with it any remaining PVA for precip.
In turn, a fairly diffuse and weak cold frontal boundary slowly slips towards the CWA. Enough energy remains advecting around the base of the broad central/east CONUS trough that some lower end PoPs remain through the night. Combined with persisting deep moisture and continued PVA around the base of the broad trough, this will act as more of a focus for activity during the day.
Wednesday looks to be fairly similar to today, though maybe a touch warmer, with highs in the upper 70s to perhaps 80 and some spotty afternoon showers and storms. If you're a fan of those cooler-than- average temperatures, make sure you get out and enjoy them, as Wednesday looks to be the last day we'll be that "cool" for a while. Large scale upper level ridging will build across much of the CONUS for the weekend, with breezy southerly winds bringing in plenty of warm air.
1135 AM CDT Tue Jun 1 2021 Moderate southwesterly flow in the mid-levels (on the order of 25-35 knots) will continue across the region today, downstream from a positively-sheared longwave trough extending from southern Ontario southwestward into northern TX. Showers and thunderstorms will expand in coverage overnight into the scattered to numerous categories as the aforementioned upper-trough draws closer. A better chance for showers and storms will exist late Wednesday morning into Wednesday afternoon as a surface cold front will poke into the area.
130 PM EDT Tue Jun 1 2021 A ridge of high pressure lingers over the area today.
The Florida Keys are currently located on the southwestern periphery of this upper-level trough. The 12Z KEY RAOB showed that the lower levels are very moist and there is a prolific dry layer above around 600 mb.
Latest trends suggest chance for thunder Wed aftn is mainly far eastern fcst area as same weak 500 mb vort/trough in eastern ND is over north central MN at that time.
With lack of forcing and soundings showing a deep dry layer in the lower levels, would not expect much if anything to reach the ground. Look for lows in the lower to mid 50s. There will again be deep mixing with temperatures similar to today with highs in the lower 80s.
359 PM EDT Tue Jun 1 2021 High pressure lingers just offshore of the mid-Atlantic coast through midweek.
An upper ridge will continue to build in from the west resulting in mostly clear skies and warmer temperatures today.
Even with extended cloud cover, the incumbent warmer air mass has allowed for a slight increase in high temperatures today, with most locations topping off in the mid 70s. However, dew points in the low 50s near the ground has evaporated any precipitation prior to reaching the surface.
Aloft we'll be entering predominantly northerly flow as the current trof overhead slides off to the east. At the same time a strong ridge is building over the western CONUS. AS the trof departs, a quick last chance for thunderstorms is present tomorrow afternoon thanks to a small convergence zone at the sfc.
Lows tonight are expected to only drop into the low to mid 50s, which isn't much cooler the current temps. The airmass will remain fairly moist and the upper level trough axis will still be west of the CWA, providing lift to force some non severe convection. The current upper level trough of low pressure slowly evolves into a shear axis that remains in place over the Ozarks for several days. A long wave ridge develops to the east, with deep troughing to the west.
304 PM MDT Tue Jun 1 2021 At the start of the short term period, the CWA is underneath the base of an upper air trough with an eastward moving upper air ridge over the western CONUS. On Tuesday night, the flow over the CWA looks to turn more northerly after midnight as the front edge of the upper air ridge makes its way over the CWA with the trough moving just to the east. On Tuesday, forecast guidance shows the ridge continuing to move slowly eastward over the CWA changing the flow aloft more north- northeasterly.
320 PM MDT Tue Jun 1 2021 An amplified upper level ridge will continue to build across the western CONUS over the next 36 hours. The flow on the downstream side of this ridge is northerly, so this evening's high-level cirrus clouds will drift southward overnight. Deep subsidence hinders cloud cover and showers, although a few isolated cells could still form over the highest terrain.
This feature may help initiate elevated storms later tonight as it round the backside of an upper level trough whose axis will be over western OK up into the central plains. The best area for destabilization will be across the northwestern third of the Panhandles where insolation and cooler mid level temperatures will help overcome any capping with about 1000 to 1500 J/kg MLCAPE by peak heating. East of AMA to PPA will see slightly warmer mid level temperatures and lower MLCAPE maxing out at 700 to 1000 J/kg. The Panhandle area stays on the backside of the upper level trough tomorrow with an a similar setup to today, perhaps shifted east and south.
As the upper trof continues to push into the central plains, increasing subsidence, drying and lack of daytime heating will put an end to all of the showers before midnight. With the building high pressure aloft, there will be some increase in high level moisture which will be coming in from the north.
529 PM MDT Tue Jun 1 2021 Water vapor shows short wave crossing western SD/western NE early this afternoon, with large scale ridge extending westward to the west coast. At the surface, weak trof is located just southeast of the Black Hills and advancing eastward. A few showers/storms have developed early this afternoon, generally along and east of the surface trof where MLCAPE has increased to nearly 500J/kg. Showers/isolated non-severe storms will continue near/east of the surface trof into the early evening before diminishing with loss of insolation. The rest of the week will bring much warmer temps and dry conditions as massive upper ridge builds into the Plains.
Issued by National Weather Service Green Bay WI 636 PM CDT Tue Jun 1 2021 (Issued 215 PM CDT Tue Jun 1 2021) Tonight through Wednesday night: Low level anticyclonic flow persists with ridging extending westward from lower MI. However will at least carry some small pops in the northwest cwa closer to where this trough may co- locate with some 850/925 convergence and instability axis.
456 PM MDT Tue Jun 1 2021 An amplified upper level ridge will continue to build across the western CONUS over the next 36 hours. The flow on the downstream side of this ridge is northerly, so this evening's high-level cirrus clouds will drift southward overnight. Deep subsidence hinders cloud cover and showers, although a few isolated cells could still form over the highest terrain.
537 PM MDT Tue Jun 1 2021 At the start of the short term period, the CWA is underneath the base of an upper air trough with an eastward moving upper air ridge over the western CONUS. On Tuesday night, the flow over the CWA looks to turn more northerly after midnight as the front edge of the upper air ridge makes its way over the CWA with the trough moving just to the east. On Tuesday, forecast guidance shows the ridge continuing to move slowly eastward over the CWA changing the flow aloft more north- northeasterly.
834 PM EDT Tue Jun 1 2021 High pressure lingers just offshore of the mid-Atlantic coast through midweek.
Warming continued today on the east side of a sharp upper ridge. We'll see a mild night under mostly clear skies as the upper ridge axis advances into eastern Oregon.
A period of VFR conditions will remain possible over parts of Northeast Oklahoma this evening before falling back to IFR/MVFR conditions late evening and overnight tonight as an upper level trof axis settles into the region.