Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Although KBRO Doppler radar indicates a few isolated cells over the BRO CWFA right now, 500 mb high pressure centered over the Lone Star State should ensure dry weather during the short term portion of the forecast.
534 AM EDT Wed Jun 22 2022 An upper level ridge building over the region will result in temperatures rising through the middle of the week and highs will be near record values. Ridging begins slowly retreating on Thursday as a backdoor cold front increases moisture and isolated to scattered showers become possible.
Embedded in this, there is a short wave trough lifting north along the Arizona/New Mexico border. 50 of an inch over the higher terrain and around three-quarters of an inch over eastern Colorado. Could see just enough moisture and instability for weak showers/storms over the higher terrain southwest of Denver and also over Lincoln county and even here, chances for rain will be low. The warmer airmass plus cloud cover should produce a mild night across the area. On Thursday, a weak southwesterly flow will be over CO with a ridge of high pressure centered over TX with an upper level trough over NV.
and Thursday High pressure will build over the western Great Lakes region today, then slowly slide southeast of the area late tonight into Thursday. The high will bring a period of quiet weather to the region with cooler temperatures, lower relative humidities, and mostly sunny skies. Highs today are expected to range from the middle to upper 70s across the north, to the lower 80s across east-central Wisconsin. Temperatures will warm a bit on Thursday as the high slides off to the southeast.
(Tonight through Wednesday) The main feature of note continues to be an upper level high centered over the lower Mississippi Valley. The high is beginning to rotate to a more latitudinal orientation as it begins to retrograde off to the west. Overnight lows tonight will be in the low to mid 70s with light winds out of the south and mostly clear skies. Tomorrow will be a near carbon copy to today with highs once again in the upper 90s to low 100s with no real strengthening in the 850 mb thermal ridge expected.
348 AM MDT Wed Jun 22 2022 MORNING DISCUSSION: An upper level ridge will linger over the area for today into most of tomorrow leading to above normal temperatures. By Thursday afternoon, an upper level trough will begin deepening over the Pacific Northwest with a low pressure centered over Alberta.
546 AM MDT Wed Jun 22 2022 A building upper-level ridge should promote a warming trend across southeast Wyoming and the western Nebraska Panhandle through Thurs afternoon. Ridging aloft will very much remain intact.
High pressure system continues to dominate the weather pattern, bringing light southeasterly winds through much of the period. Mid to upper level ridge centered over the ArkLaTex remains strong and will continue to expand over TX today. Highs will once again climb from the low 90s along the coast to near 101 degrees across our northwestern counties. Ridging will continue to move westward into TX in the next few days, providing more subsidence into the region.
541 AM EDT Wed Jun 22 2022 An upper level ridge building over the region will result in temperatures rising through the middle of the week and highs will be near record values. Ridging begins slowly retreating on Thursday as a backdoor cold front increases moisture and isolated to scattered showers become possible.
719 AM EDT Wed Jun 22 2022 Shower and thunderstorm chances are likely this afternoon and evening with a crossing cold front.
558 AM CDT Wed Jun 22 2022 (Today and tonight) Another seasonably hot day is expected across Oklahoma and north Texas as a ~595 dam mid-level ridge will be centered across the area.
The next few days will be characterized as "dormant" for most of the forecast area as ridging to the east flexes back overhead, creating a quieter period of weather. Guidance is indicating a few showers/storms to develop across the higher terrain down south, but coverage will be sparse. Temperatures steady in the 90s for much of the area both days with Thursday trending a few degrees warmer thanks to higher heights from the ridge.
Steady moderate east-northeast breezes prevail at the surface, with the Keys remaining south of an Atlantic high pressure ridge. Meanwhile, air temperatures are climbing slowly through the mid 80s, with dewpoint temperatures in the lower 70s under partly cloudy skies. An Atlantic high pressure ridge will extend westward to northern Florida this afternoon.
This feature will also help to suppress the downstream upper ridge axis south and east of our area. Expect some diurnal cumulus development this afternoon with 850mb thermal troughing across the Great Lakes. High pressure begins to build into the forecast area, this morning with a little more "cold" advection happening initially.
Sunny skies for the remainder of the day can be accredited to a system of high pressure situated out in the Plains and, of course, the large upper level High keeping the mid-upper level jet well to our north. Continued clear skies tonight with dewpoints in the 50's means we won't be quite as mild tonight as we were last night with lows tomorrow morning dropping into the lower and middle 60's. Tomorrow will be a carbon copy of today with the High centering itself over the Midwest.
1215 PM CDT Wed Jun 22 2022 (Rest of Today) High pressure remains entrenched over central Tennessee and northern Alabama this morning. Temperatures after dropping into the mid 60s to lower 70s have climbed into the lower 80s in most locations to around 90 degrees in the Quad cities area at 9 AM.
(This evening through Thursday Night) The hot dome of high pressure aloft will remain the biggest factor over the short term period. We are seeing some isolated thunderstorms this afternoon under the ridge. Expect more subsidence in association with the ridge tomorrow and less depth of moisture to limit any of this isolated afternoon activity more to southern zones tomorrow. Anticipating temperatures will likely peak a degree or two warmer in many areas tomorrow with still enough humidity to bring peak heat index values into the 105-110 degree range in most areas.
While we are still above our seasonal highs for June 22, the lack of humidity is really helping today feel cooler. High pressure will keep skies mainly clear, with light northwest to west winds through the period. Clear skies and light winds tonight will allow for lows in the lower 60s, which is near the dewpoint forecast tonight. Though humidity will be low, the highs Thursday will once again peak near the upper 80s to around 90, and that's above normal once again.
lingering showers and thunderstorms are expected through the morning hours as a low pressure system begins to develop across eastern Colorado and into northern Kansas. As the day progresses, thunderstorm potential becomes more likely as the low intensifies.
1226 PM CDT Wed Jun 22 2022 (This afternoon through Thursday) Hot and dry conditions will remain in place for this afternoon as high pressure remains the dominant feature.
333 PM CDT Wed Jun 22 2022 Upper ridge is providing hot weather across the region this afternoon with temperatures already reaching 100 degrees at a few locations. An approaching back door cold front will provide isolated showers and thunderstorms across the northern part of the forecast area this afternoon into early evening.
1035 AM CDT Wed Jun 22 2022 The forecast remains on track, with high pressure heavily influencing the region's weather today. Upper level zonal flow this morning will be replaced by weak ridging this afternoon and tonight, with the ridge building even more during the day Thursday. At the surface, high pressure currently over the region will begin to get pushed eastward this afternoon as low pressure approaches from the west. May see a better chance for storms Thursday afternoon as even warmer air gets ushered into the region ahead of the approaching front. High temperatures today will be in the 80s, with lows tonight in the lower to mid 60s. Highs on Thursday will be in the lower to mid 90s.
This area is on the northwestern periphery of the large upper high and in the monsoonal moisture fetch. On Thursday, the upper high expands in most directions which is expected to keep any storms to the west and north of Oklahoma.
By Thursday morning, a sub-tropical high will be over the southern Plains, a compact upper low across central California, and a low-amplitude trough over the Pacific Northwest/southern British Columbia. The northern fringe of the mid- level monsoonal moisture will be over the south, the compact upper low will open up as it is lifted by the northern stream trough pushing into the extreme northern Rockies. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are expected over the south/southwest from the monsoonal moisture, and some over the northwest from some dynamics from the northern stream trough. By Thursday night, the compact upper low mentioned above will approach the area, and the northern stream trough will send a cold front into the area late Thursday night.
Warm and mostly dry conditions are expected today as high pressure remains in control. A cold front will move through Thursday afternoon and evening, which will bring a chance for a few showers and thunderstorms as it moves through.
1242 PM CDT Wed Jun 22 2022 - Cooler temperatures today and Thursday - Periods of shower and thunder chances Thursday night through the Weekend.
Large upper ridge persists over much of the southern CONUS. 500mb heights near 595dm in the center of ridge over TX to drop some but extent of ridge to build eastward a little further on Thursday. Expect similar or slightly warmer temps tomorrow and with some increase in low level moisture, temperatures and/or heat indices expected to exceed advisory criteria, mainly over middle and eastern Georgia.
258 PM CDT Wed Jun 22 2022 High pressure, centered along the Iowa/Nebraska border, dominates the region currently with mostly sunny skies and light winds. As this feature drifts slowly east tonight, weak low pressure takes shape to the west. On Thursday, continuous southerly flow will advect warm and moist air northward into and across the High Plains, underneath a broad, low-amplitude upper-level ridge. The presence of the aforementioned upper-level ridge will shield the area from any substantial forcing.
409 PM EDT Wed Jun 22 2022 Scattered thunderstorms are expected into the evening hours as a cold front moves through the region.
However, the main focus of this afternoon will fall across southern KS in the of a stalled cold front currently along the KS/OK border and outflow boundary in northeast Oklahoma which arches back into south central KS.
Meanwhile, a strong upper ridge continues to dominate the synoptic picture across the Central CONUS, allowing for the hot and humid pattern of late to continue to be our main concern for the foreseeable future. The ridge axis will gradually shift back eastward towards SE TX in the coming days, providing a slight uptick in temperatures which will push us close to Heat Advisory criteria.
Low temperatures tonight will be cooler, falling into the middle to upper 60s.
A thermal ridge at 850mb slides back over us along with a south surface wind. This combination will help temperatures climb back into the low to mid 90s for most areas. Thursday night the chance of thunderstorms return to the area with a cold front moving in from the west.
Afternoon high temperatures will mainly be in the upper 80s to around 90 degrees, but will reach the lower to middle 90s south of I-70. Cold front has dropped south of the KILX CWA this morning. Afternoon highs will be several degrees cooler than they were yesterday, with readings mostly in the upper 80s to around 90 degrees. The exception will be south of I-70 where highs will once again reach the lower to middle 90s. Early this morning, a cold front stretches from central Michigan southwest across portions of central Illinois, between the I-55 corridor and the Illinois River. High pressure will build across much of the Midwest Thursday providing fair weather conditions across the region. With the upper ridge positioned just to our west, temperatures will continue to moderate slightly with highs in the upper 80s to around 90F.
8" tonight into Thursday, which combined with the surface heating and lift from the low, is plenty for thunderstorm development. Isolated showers and thunderstorms remain possible overnight, with the highest chances on Thursday.
There is a chance for a shower or storm near the low-level theta-E gradient.
123 PM EDT Wed Jun 22 2022 Shower and thunderstorm chances are likely this afternoon and evening with a crossing cold front.
Since the center of the mid-upper tropospheric anticyclone was positioned across Oklahoma, shower and thunderstorm activity will maintain a northeasterly forward motion. This will result in much warmer temperatures over a larger region.
While most of the forecast area (Nebraska side especially) had plenty of sunshine, a stubborn stream of clouds, light showers and cooler temperatures (70s) were noted in Rooks, Osborne and Mitchell counties. These showers were found within the larger scale circulation rotating around upper level high pressure in the Southern Plains. With the exception of the far south, dewpoints were comfortably in the lower to middle 50s making temperatures in the 80s more palatable.
A 590dam ridge at the 500mb level will continue to be the dominant feature across the region for the next 36 hours. Overnight, skies should remain mostly clear with fairly light winds, allowing for temperatures to drop into the low to mid 70s. Tomorrow, some lee- side troughing in eastern Colorado will help to resume southeasterly flow at the surface, although winds should stay below 20 MPH. 850mb temperatures of 20-22 C should yield another day of highs in the low 100s, with only some scattered cumulus clouds expected in the afternoon.
1108 AM EDT Wed Jun 22 2022 Scattered thunderstorms are expected today as a cold front moves through the region.
Further east temperatures have reached the lower to mid 90s primarily so far. Temperatures look to be on track and dewpoints have dropped into the lower to mid 60s in a few locations.
941 AM MDT Wed Jun 22 2022 Warm and mostly dry conditions are expected today as high pressure remains in control. A cold front will move through Thursday afternoon and evening, which will bring a chance for a few showers and thunderstorms as it moves through.
1046 AM MDT Wed Jun 22 2022 At the surface, weak high pressure sits centered over northwestern SD this morning. Mild ridging builds over the northern plains later today into Thursday. As the high slides eastward today, return flow moves into the region.
1246 PM CDT Wed Jun 22 2022 A surface cold front continues to shift southward across the area early this morning. Temperatures will also be cooler today, albeit still on the warm side. However, closer to the lake onshore flow will promote cooler conditions, especially over the IN shores. Even cooler weather (in the 70s) is anticipated near the lake, however, due to persistent onshore flow.
353 PM CDT Wed Jun 22 2022 Summary: Warmer temperatures are expected for Thursday.
/Issued 131 PM CDT Wed Jun 22 2022/ /Today through Tomorrow/ Our nearly stationary ridge of high pressure remains in control, evident by the hot and mostly dry conditions across the region. This will continue to be the case the rest of today and tomorrow as subsidence from the area of high pressure prevents the development of any afternoon convection. Temperatures tomorrow are expected to be a degree or two warmer throughout the region, with readings at or just above heat advisory criteria. /NEW/ /Thursday Night Onward/ Hot and dry weather is expected through the weekend as subsidence continues beneath a mid-level ridge.
The forecast remains on track, with high pressure heavily influencing the region's weather today. Upper level zonal flow this morning will be replaced by weak ridging this afternoon and tonight, with the ridge building even more during the day Thursday. At the surface, high pressure currently over the region will begin to get pushed eastward this afternoon as low pressure approaches from the west. May see a better chance for storms Thursday afternoon as even warmer air gets ushered into the region ahead of the approaching front. High temperatures today will be in the 80s, with lows tonight in the lower to mid 60s. Highs on Thursday will be in the lower to mid 90s.
High pressure will remain in control for the short term period. Warm air advection at H85 combined with a slight decrease in dewpoints tomorrow and continued subsidence will result in slightly warmer temperatures tomorrow afternoon.
Cold front has cleared Lower Michigan this afternoon with temperatures and dew points dipping down tonight into the upper 40s to mid 50s.
252 PM CDT Wed Jun 22 2022 The synoptic cold front appears to be just south of Reynolds county across southern Missouri. As drier and cooler air continues filtering into the region this evening, even the minimal chance for precip in our south will diminish. Convective debris from overnight storms in the Plains will likely help to suppress temperatures on Thursday, and the relatively cool and dry high pressure system to our northeast should also help to produce highs mainly in the upper 80s.
Cold front has settled southward into the Ohio River Valley this afternoon, allowing a cooler/less humid airmass to trickle into central Illinois. overnight lows will bottom out in the lower to middle 60s.
(This afternoon through Thursday Night) Well the surface winds increased enough to help some low level mixing, and get the dewpoints into the low to mid 60s so Nashville could see its first 100 degree reading in nearly 10 years this afternoon. There is still a risk of a strong to severe storm, but the main threat with any strong storms that develop would be gusty winds as the deep layer shear is on the weaker side despite the higher instability.
334 PM EDT Wed Jun 22 2022 High pressure continues to remain over the region; however, a weak cold front is slowly progressing to the southeast. Across the area, dewpoints range from the mid-60s into the mid-70s with current temperatures ranging from the low to mid-90s. Attention turns from the the heat towards the approaching cold front.
1224 PM CDT Wed Jun 22 2022 Key Messages: - Less humid, cooler today - Late-week shower and storm chances Cooler and Drier Today: A less humid airmass has spread across the Upper Mississippi Valley in the wake of yesterday's cold front. More seasonable temps in the upper 70s to mid 80s are expected today along with the lower humidity levels.
343 PM CDT Wed Jun 22 2022 (Issued 342 PM CDT Wed Jun 22 2022) Tonight through Thursday night: High pressure should expand into the region tonight and daytime cu should subside around sunset. Don't think widespread fog will be too much of a concern as soundings show a deep dry layer in the lower atmosphere. Nice weather should continue tomorrow with lighter southwesterly winds as the high pressure center passes overhead. It'll be a bit warmer as the ridge axis passes overhead with highs in the upper 80s.
Deep South Texas will be slightly cooler tonight due to clearer skies. Have temperatures in the lower to mid 70s. Tomorrow's lows will be a couple of degrees cooler than tonight's with mostly clear skies forecast again.
335 PM EDT Wed Jun 22 2022 Delayed departure of the elevated portion of this morning's surface cold front has allowed for another day of above average highs with temps topping out in the upper 80s/low 90s. Remainder of said cold front is vacating the region late this afternoon setting up a brief airmass replacement for the latter half of this work week. Thermal trough settles over lower MI daytime Thursday as lower level anticyclonic flow develops across the region. Resultant columns remain unsaturated throughout the day leading to sunny skies and ample insolation supporting near normal highs in the low 80s. With minimal change in airmass or sky cover, expectation is for Thursday night to be similar to tonight with lows falling into the 50s (albeit a couple degrees warmer as thermal trough begins shifting to our east).
A strong upper level ridge of high pressure will remain anchored over much of the southern U. Plentiful subsidence will remain in place across our area through Thursday afternoon underneath the building ridge.
Heat indices are ranging from 100-109 this afternoon as dewpoints remain in the lower 70s.
302 PM EDT Wed Jun 22 2022 Cu field has developed this afternoon ahead of a weak cold front currently pushing through the southern half of Indiana. Outside of areas that have seen rainfall, there are many locations with temperatures in the 90s and dewpoints continuing to hold steady in the low to mid 70s. The weak cold front should clear the area by early tomorrow morning, and gradually usher in some drier and slightly 'cooler' air for Thursday.
Expect lows tonight and tomorrow generally in the low to mid 60s with highs tomorrow in the mid to upper 80s.
Thursday night, upper level high pressure will cover the Central U. with an upper trough of low pressure over the western states. This pattern will allow some monsoonal moisture to continue to flow into the western half of Colorado with isolated to scattered showers and storms mainly in the high country.
Thickness will be increasing the next several days with high pressure over Central TX, but temperatures look to only warm a few degrees each afternoon. This looks to be the only chance for any precipitation in the CWA through at least the short term period as high pressure continues to dominate.
214 PM EDT Wed Jun 22 2022 Scattered thunderstorms are expected today as a cold front moves through the region.
1105 AM MDT Wed Jun 22 2022 A building upper-level ridge should promote a warming trend across southeast Wyoming and the western Nebraska Panhandle through Thurs afternoon. Ridging aloft will very much remain intact.
Winds will remain light and variable beneath the influence of large high pressure at the surface and aloft. Today Through Thursday Night High pressure will continue to dominate the weather pattern for the Natural State through the short term period.
High pressure will then build in through the first part of the weekend, to bring rain-free and seasonable summer weather. Temperatures on Thursday will feel cooler than Wednesday, as high temperatures will only get into the upper 70s.
A few typically cooler locations could dip into the lower 40s.
the forecast area continue under southwest flow aloft, in between high pressure along the Oklahoma/Texas border and low pressure over central California. Areas along and east of a line from about Benkelman to Lenora are near a warm front where greater instability exists to the east of it to support all modes of severe weather. The better performing temperature guidance supports highs in the lower to upper 90s with 850mb temperatures under full mixing supporting highs around 105F in Hill City.
An area of low pressure around California and the Desert Southwest will sent a push of moisture across the area Thursday afternoon and evening with possible showers and isolated thunderstorms, mainly along the Nevada border.
That 700 mb moistening is due to the monsoonal moisture surging into the region thanks in part to a closed low parked along the Central Coast. The closed low and the monsoonal moisture surge will hang around for another day or so, resulting in another day of thunderstorm development across much of the area.
/NEW/ /Today through Tomorrow/ Our nearly stationary ridge of high pressure remains in control, evident by the hot and mostly dry conditions across the region. This will continue to be the case the rest of today and tomorrow as subsidence from the area of high pressure prevents the development of any afternoon convection. Temperatures tomorrow are expected to be a degree or two warmer throughout the region, with readings at or just above heat advisory criteria.