Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
WINDS WILL REMAIN COUPLED UNDER THE LOW CLOUDS. LARGE AREA OF LOW STRATUS ASSOCIATED WITH A DIGGING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY/GREAT LAKES AND LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUING TO DEEPEN IN THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION INTENSIFYING IN THE DVN CWA. THE LOW STRATUS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD SOUTHWARD OVER ALL OF THE CWA THIS MORNING. AFTER MIDNIGHT HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS BUILDING INTO WESTERN IA WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING. MONDAY WILL BE THE COLDEST DAY OF THE WEEK AS COLD HIGH PRESSURE OVERSPREADS THE AIR WITH 850MB TEMPS DOWN TO -10C OR SO. HAVE FAVORED THE COOLER END OF GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS IN THE 20S.
1002 AM EST SUN JAN 3 2016 LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY. THE LOW WILL EXIT ACROSS THE MARITIMES TONIGHT DRAWING A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD TOWARD THE REGION LATER MONDAY. REFINED POPS AND QPF WITH TODAY'S LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. LATEST GUIDANCE AND ANALYSIS HAS THE LOW CENTER TRACKING ACROSS NORTHERN AROOSTOOK THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE PLACED THE HIGHEST POPS AND QPF FROM THE LOW CENTER NORTHWARD FOR THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT A LINE OF SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE LOW AS IT TRACKS EAST. A SMALL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING ACROSS THE NORTH TODAY WILL BRING LIGHT SNOW TO NORTHERN AREAS. THE LOW WILL EXIT INTO THE MARITIMES TONIGHT AS A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD TOWARD THE REGION LATER MONDAY.
A POORLY DEFINED AND SINUOUS COLD FRONT STRETCHES FROM THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS ACROSS THE BAYSIDE AND GULFSIDE WATERS NORTH OF THE FLORIDA KEYS. DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE LOWER 70S ALONG THE ISLAND CHAIN. WHEREAS THE MAINLAND FEATURES DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S. AN EARLIER SWATH OF WARM AIR ADVECTION (WAA) SPREAD THROUGH THE LOWER KEYS. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE KEYS AROUND MIDNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FLORIDA KEYS TONIGHT RESULTING IN FRESHENING NORTH BREEZES.
615 AM EST SUN JAN 3 2016 LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC. DRIVING AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION LATE IN THE DAY.
632 AM EST SUN JAN 3 2016 A COLD FRONT PUSHING DOWN THROUGH THE AREA TODAY WILL USHER IN A COLDER AIRMASS TO START OFF THE WEEK.
CONDITIONS SUNDAY APPEAR DRY AND NEAR SEASONAL VALUES AS WEAK RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE AREA AND ALLOWS FOR STABLE CONDITIONS TO REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS PRECIPITATION IS ANTICIPATED TO FALL MAINLY AS SNOW.
THE REX BLOCK PATTERN THAT KEPT DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF CA HAS BROKEN DOWN AS THE UPPER LOW OF THE BLOCK LIFTED NORTHWARD OVER THE PAC NW. THIS HAS MITIGATED FREEZING TEMPERATURES AND FOG THREAT IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY. RAIN SHOULD DIMINISH MONDAY AFTERNOON IN THE SJV BUT FOCUS OVER THE SIERRA AS THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES EAST.
1023 AM EST SUN JAN 3 2016 A COLD FRONT PUSHING DOWN THROUGH THE AREA TODAY WILL USHER IN A COLDER AIRMASS TO START OFF THE WEEK.
WARM FRONTAL BAND ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE DISTURBANCE OFF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST IS ROTATING NORTH THROUGH THE IDAHO CENTRAL MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING.
601 AM EST SUN JAN 3 2016 LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY. THE LOW WILL EXIT ACROSS THE MARITIMES TONIGHT DRAWING A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD TOWARD THE REGION LATER MONDAY. A SMALL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING ACROSS THE NORTH TODAY WILL BRING LIGHT SNOW TO NORTHERN AREAS. THE LOW WILL EXIT INTO THE MARITIMES TONIGHT AS A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD TOWARD THE REGION LATER MONDAY.
STILL EXPECT SPLIT FLOW TO PREVAIL AS THE SPINE OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE APPROACHES. 950 TO 925 MB TEMPERATURES ARE REMARKABLY COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. GIVEN THE LOW SUN ANGLE. BY MONDAY AFTERNOON THE HIGHEST WINDS ALOFT ARE ONLY AROUND 20 TO 25 KTS SO DO NOT EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE MUCH.
LARGE AREA OF LOW STRATUS ASSOCIATED WITH A DIGGING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY/GREAT LAKES AND LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUING TO DEEPEN IN THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION INTENSIFYING IN THE DVN CWA. THE LOW STRATUS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD SOUTHWARD OVER ALL OF THE CWA THIS MORNING. AFTER MIDNIGHT HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS BUILDING INTO WESTERN IA WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING. MONDAY WILL BE THE COLDEST DAY OF THE WEEK AS COLD HIGH PRESSURE OVERSPREADS THE AIR WITH 850MB TEMPS DOWN TO -10C OR SO. HAVE FAVORED THE COOLER END OF GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS IN THE 20S.
912 AM EST SUN JAN 3 2016 COLD FRONT CROSSES TODAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PROVIDE DRY WEATHER MID WEEK. BUT A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN CHANCES TO END THE WEEK. STRATOCU DECK WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD SOUTH AS A COLD FRONT WORKS IT WAS INTO THE AREA TODAY. WILL BUMP UP HIGHS TO CLOSER TO THE WARMER MAV NUMBERS TODAY.
WATER VAPOR SHOWS THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH CONTINUING TO PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. WITH TEMPS REMAINING NEAR OR SLIGHTLY WARMER COMPARED TO TODAY AS SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR. WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION.
A SERIES OF OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS AND FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL PRODUCE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MOST OF COMING WEEK. AN UPPER LOW NEAR 38N/135W WILL GRADUALLY MOVE TOWARD THE NW CA COAST TODAY AND DAMPEN OUT IN BROAD E PACIFIC TROF. ANOTHER UPPER LOW WILL DRIFT VERY SLOWLY N ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW WITHIN A BROADER RIDGE IN A REX BLOCK PATTERN. AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN ACROSS SOME OF THE COLDER INTERIOR VALLEYS WHERE CONTINENTAL AIR HAS BECOME TRAPPED. HAVE INDICATED SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE FREEZING RAIN IN PORTIONS OF W AND S TRINITY COUNTY. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR OBSERVATIONS FOR THE POTENTIAL OF A SHORT FUSE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY. SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A POTENT BUT NEARLY STATIONARY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED OFF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST AT APPROXIMATELY 135W.
DEEP LOW PRESSURE IS SITUATED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WITH THE SERIOUS COLD AIR STILL UP OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO. THIS WILL RESULT IN HIGHS A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN SAT. CAN'T RULE OUT SOME PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING. AS COLD HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES SOUTH ACROSS MID-AMERICA.
Have sent some updates to significantly increase the clouds through tomorrow morning, and also to keep the lows a bit warmer tonight. Winds will be N-NW around 10 mph following a surface pressure trough that moved through the area overnight. Cool air in place will keep the temps chilly through tomorrow, with high pressure building into the region.
/issued 333 AM CST SUN JAN 3 2016/ (Today and Tonight) Based on the current north to south movement of the clearing line early this morning, still expect some patchy fog or freezing fog to develop across the northern third of the forecast area this morning with persistence to around 9:00 AM local time this morning. Otherwise, drier air will move south through the forecast area through tonight as upper level ridging builds into the area from the west. Afternoon highs today will be warmer with lower to mid 50s expected under mostly sunny skies.
632 AM EST SUN JAN 3 2016 LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW A LARGE COLD DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE PLAINS AND EXTENDING INTO THE DEEP SOUTH.
513 AM CST SUN JAN 3 2016 A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVG SOUTH OF I-30. /ISSUED 304 AM CST SUN JAN 3 2016/ WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS AND WILL QUICKLY PUSH EAST OF OUR REGION BY THIS AFTERNOON. IN THE WAKE OF THIS TROUGH.
THE WARM ADVECTION ALOFT IS ABOUT OVER BUT THE LOW LEVELS ARE STILL CATCHING UP. WENT A LITTLE COOLER ON THE NORTHEAST PLAINS. THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS IS EAST OF THE CWA ON MONDAY AND THERE IS WEAK SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ALL DAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
A MID LEVEL TROUGH EXITING THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP A RA/-RA MIX THIS MORNING FOR THE EASTERN SITES OF CRP-ALI-VCT. MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES INTO THE REGION. WATER VAPOR SHOWS THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH CONTINUING TO PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. WITH TEMPS REMAINING NEAR OR SLIGHTLY WARMER COMPARED TO TODAY AS SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR. WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION.
Elsewhere, it will be dry, although cloudy and cool with afternoon high temperatures struggling to reach the lower 50s in some areas.
THE LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH OUT OF THE REGION. CLOUD COVER ALONG WITH SOME BREEZY WINDS ARE KEEPING TEMPERATURES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY EVENING IN SOME LOCATIONS, WHILE OTHER LOCATIONS REMAIN VERY COLD WITH STRONG INVERSIONS IN PLACE. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIE DOWN LATER TODAY AS THE GRADIENT RELAXES WITH THE UPPER LOW EXITING THE REGION. THE SPLITTING TROUGH ENCOUNTERS THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY BRINGING INCREASED CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL BE AS THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES INTO THE SIERRA ON MONDAY.
WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES. UPPER LOW TRAPPED UNDER REX BLOCK WILL DRIFT ACROSS PACIFIC NORTHWEST TODAY. TOMORROW LOOKS LIKE A LITTLE BETTER CHANCE FOR LIVINGSTON/BILLINGS TO REALIZE SOME OF THOSE WARMER TEMPERATURES OTHER LOCATIONS AROUND THE CWA ARE ENJOYING. GFS AND EURO GUIDANCE SHOWS THE PREVAILING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FLATTENING AND THEN SHIFTING EASTWARD. THE BEST PRECIP POTENTIAL APPEARS TO NOW BE THUR THROUGH LATE FRI MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH A PASSING NEGATIVELY TITLED AND SPLITTING TROUGH. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE CA COAST PUSHES ONSHORE. PRECIP CHANCES THEN RETURN AS SOON AS SAT NIGHT IN THE FASTER EURO SOLUTION FOR MUCH OF THE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH A STRENGTHENING CLOSED LOW DIVING S-SE OUT OF CANADA TO OUR EAST. HAVE UNDERCUT GUIDANCE FOR MAXT VALUES ON SUN GIVEN DIFFERENCES IN PROGGED COLD FRONT TIMING ASSOCIATED WITH CANADIAN UPPER-LEVEL LOW NOTED ABOVE.
/ISSUED 331 AM CST SUN JAN 3 2016/ UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN OVER THE PANHANDLES TODAY AND TONIGHT AND THEN MOVES EAST AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY.
THE CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR TODAY AND WITH THE HIGH MOVING OVERHEAD THIS EVENING. WHICH WOULD BE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE SNOW COVER AND LIKELIHOOD OF STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE HIGH.
551 AM CST SUN JAN 3 2016 WATER VAPOR SATELLITE THIS MORNING SHOWS ONE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND LAKE SUPERIOR WITH ANOTHER UPSTREAM OVER THE ONTARIO/SASKATCHEWAN BORDER. A BAND OF LOW CLOUDS IS DROPPING SOUTH WITH THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AND WILL COVER THE ENTIRE AREA BY 12Z. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THERE ARE NOT ANY FLURRIES INITIALLY OCCURRING WITH THE LOW CLOUDS. BUT THESE START TO OCCUR ALONG THE MINNESOTA/CANADIAN BORDER AS THE FORCING FROM THE SECOND SHORT WAVE TROUGH STARTS TO INCREASE.
SHORT TERM GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE HRRR/ARW/NMM INITIALIZED WELL WITH PRECIP TRENDS EARLY THIS MORNING AND LEANED TOWARD A BLENDED SOLUTION WHICH RESULTED IN A CONTINUATION OF DRY CONDITIONS GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A JAX- GNV LINE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY WITH ELEVATED 30-80% RAIN CHANCES OF LIGHT PASSING RAINFALL SOUTH OF THIS LINE AS ANOTHER MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH TREKS OVER THE AREA FROM THE GULF. MAX TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEG BELOW CLIMO VALUES WITH VALUES IN THE LOW/MID 50S INLAND TO UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60 ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST UNDER A COOL BUT LIGHT OFFSHORE WNW FLOW.
505 AM EST SUN JAN 3 2016 LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY. THE LOW WILL EXIT ACROSS THE MARITIMES TONIGHT DRAWING A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD TOWARD THE REGION LATER MONDAY. A SMALL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING ACROSS THE NORTH TODAY WILL BRING LIGHT SNOW TO NORTHERN AREAS. THE LOW WILL EXIT INTO THE MARITIMES TONIGHT AS A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD TOWARD THE REGION LATER MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK ABOVE 50 DEGREES IN MOST OF THE LOWLANDS TODAY DUE TO ABUNDANT SUNSHINE.
A WARM FRONT LIFTING THROUGH THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BRING LIGHT SNOW TO SE OREGON AND THE W-CENTRAL MTNS OF IDAHO TODAY. THOUGHT THE LOWER SNAKE PLAIN AND MORE SHELTERED MTN VALLEYS WILL LAG IN REALIZING THE WARMING ALOFT. DRY CONDITIONS ON MONDAY AS A WEAK SHORT WAVE RIDGE TRANSITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FROM S-N.
927 AM EST SUN JAN 3 2016 AVIATION SECTION UPDATED A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PROVIDE DRY WEATHER MID WEEK. BUT A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN CHANCES TO END THE WEEK. THIS DECK WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD SOUTH AS A COLD FRONT WORKS IT WAS INTO THE AREA TODAY. WILL BUMP UP HIGHS TO CLOSER TO THE WARMER MAV NUMBERS TODAY.
SOME OF THE HIGH RES GUIDANCE HAS TEMPS RECOVERING A BIT LESS THAN EXPECTED. HIGHS WILL BE A BIT COOLER THAN YESTERDAY BUT STILL FAIRLY MILD AND IN THE 20S.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE LATER IN THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD. AND THE LOW CLOUD SHIELD CONTINUES TO MAKE PROGRESS SOUTHEASTWARD. THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL PASS LATER TONIGHT AND TURN THE WINDS FLOW TO A MORE NORTHERLY TRAJECTORY.
AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST EXERTED ITS INFLUENCE TO THE EAST. WITH BLOCKING IN PLACE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. A WEAK UPPER LOW SE OF THE WESTERN BLOCK WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES TODAY/TONIGHT. AS A TROUGH/WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES IN A NW-SE FASHION OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS TODAY SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL INTO THE LOWER 50S TODAY. BUT WILL STRUGGLE INTO THE LOWER 40S ON MON. WITH A STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BECOMING REINFORCED FROM THE NW.
DRY CONDITIONS WITH WARMER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND LOCALLY GUSTY EAST WINDS WILL OCCUR TODAY.
/ISSUED / LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW A LARGE COLD DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE PLAINS AND EXTENDING INTO THE DEEP SOUTH.
WITH A STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BECOMING REINFORCED FROM THE NW.
DESPITE THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. LOOKS LIKE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WITH SOME SUBSIDENCE WILL BE ENOUGH TO HOLD OFF ON MOST CONVECTION. THIS BUDDING RIDGE AND RELATIVELY DRIER AIRMASS ARE EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A MUCH LESS ACTIVE DAY IN TERMS OF CONVECTION TODAY. WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OCCURRING OVER THE COASTAL COUNTIES/PARISHES NEAR THE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE.
WITH THE VERY WARM UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN U. AND A THERMAL TROUGH DEVELOPING IN CENTRAL OREGON AND WASHINGTON. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY.
1049 AM MDT SUN AUG 23 2015 A BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD EAST OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THROUGH MONDAY WITH THE RIDGE AXIS MOVING OVER WESTERN COLORADO. WINDS WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY AS THE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST BUT WE EXPECT HAZY CONDITIONS TO LINGER AS RESIDUAL SMOKE FROM WESTERN FIRES REMAINS OVER THE REGION. EASTERLY WAVE WILL BE NORTHBOUND ALONG THE WRN PERIPHERY OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE COLORADO AND THE NEW MEXICO BORDER.
LATEST HIRES MODELS INDICATE A COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO THE REGION BETWEEN 09-12Z MONDAY MORNING WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NW AND SPEEDS INCREASING TO AROUND 10 KTS.
1009 AM EDT SUN AUG 23 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS WARM AND DRY TODAY BEFORE A WEAK COLD FRONT RETURNS RAIN CHANCES TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS EAST INTO NEW ENGLAND. SURFACE RIDGING IS PROGGED TO BUILD ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION THROUGH MID WEEK UNDER AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH FROM A CLOSED UPPER ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.
TYPICAL SUMMER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEK AS A LARGE AREA OF UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS PARKED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES.
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 86 71 85 61 / 90 10 10 0 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 84 70 83 59 / 60 10 20 10 OAK RIDGE, TN 84 70 83 58 / 60 10 20 0 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 81 65 80 56 / 60 20 30 10.
/ISSUED 450 AM CDT SUN AUG 23 2015/ COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SURGE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE THIS MORNING. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE UPPER 70S TODAY BEHIND THIS MORNINGS COLD FRONT.
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 81 71 85 61 / 90 10 10 0 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 81 70 83 59 / 70 10 20 10 OAK RIDGE, TN 79 70 83 58 / 60 10 20 0 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 82 65 80 56 / 60 20 30 10.
628 AM CDT SUN AUG 23 2015 06Z SFC DATA HAS THE COLD FRONT FROM ROUGHLY KDEH TO KSTJ WITH PERHAPS A PRE-FRONTAL TROF JUST AHEAD OF IT. DEW POINTS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WERE IN THE 60S WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 40S AND 50S BEHIND THE FRONT. THE STRONG COLD FRONT APPEARS TO BE MOVING EAST AROUND 25 TO 30 MPH WITH CONVECTION RIGHT ALONG IT. BREEZY AND MUCH COOLER WEATHER WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE MIDWEST. AND DIMINISHING WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE LOWER 50S.
1123 AM EDT SUN AUG 23 2015 HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER PENNSYLVANIA WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND THEN MOVES ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY. A RELATIVELY DEEP MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH WILL DOMINATE THE PATTERN OVER PENNSYLVANIA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN OR STALL OVER EASTERN PA ON MONDAY. ALL MED RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE OUR MID-LATE WEEK WX WILL BE DOMINATED BY LINGERING UPPER TROUGH OVR THE NORTHEAST CONUS.
1157 AM EDT SUN AUG 23 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER QUEBEC TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST MONDAY MORNING.
1122 AM EDT SUN AUG 23 2015 HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER PENNSYLVANIA WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND THEN MOVES ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY. A RELATIVELY DEEP MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH WILL DOMINATE THE PATTERN OVER PENNSYLVANIA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN OR STALL OVER EASTERN PA ON MONDAY. ALL MED RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE OUR MID-LATE WEEK WX WILL BE DOMINATED BY LINGERING UPPER TROUGH OVR THE NORTHEAST CONUS.
611 AM CDT SUN AUG 23 2015 CORE OF INTENSE UPPER LEVEL LOW SLIPPING EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA. AS SECONDARY BAND OF PRESSURE RISES BEHIND UPPER TROUGH OF 2-3 HPA/3H PUSH THROUGH NORTHEASTERN SD IN THE PREDAWN HOURS. GREATEST INSTABILITY OF THE LOWER LEVELS REMAINS BELOW THE CLOUD DECK AS IT PUSHES THROUGH THE I-29 CORRIDOR. HAVE NEITHER EXPANDED ADVISORY THROUGH THE NORTHERN BUFFALO RIDGE LOCATIONS IN SW MN NOR EXTENDED ACROSS THE EXTREME EAST CENTRAL PORTIONS OF SD. WITH VERY DRY AIR AND DIMINISHED WINDS WITHIN THE RIDGE AXIS TONIGHT AS IT DRIFTS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA TONIGHT.
844 AM EDT SUN AUG 23 2015 COLD FRONT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. COURTESY OF A WEAK S/W TROF. A COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA MONDAY MORNING. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW THEN REMAINS TO THE NORTH THROUGH MID WEEK. ALTHOUGH SOME CLOUDS FROM THE UPPER LOW COULD EFFECT THE AREA AT TIMES. A WEAK COLD FRONT FORMING IN RESPONSE TO A SHARPENING OF THE UPPER LEVEL L/W TROUGH AXIS OVER THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS FRI TO KEEP THE DRY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS OVERNIGHT WITH A BROKEN LINE OF SHRA AND A WIND SHIFT.
ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE EXITING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY A STRONG COLD FRONT LATER TODAY. WITH HIGH PRESSURE REESTABLISHING OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE ENTIRE WEEK AS THE HIGH REMAINS THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE. FOCUS FOR TODAY IS THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST LATER THIS AFTERNOON. STRONGER UPPER FORCING WILL REMAIN DISPLACED TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE UPPER LOW.
1010 AM EDT SUN AUG 23 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. THEN HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY PUSH INTO THE AREA WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH NOT MOVING IN UNTIL LATE IN THE WEEK. COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE WEST. FORECAST AREA WILL BE BETWEEN A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING ACROSS ONTARIO AND A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN WEST.
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 86 71 85 61 / 90 10 10 0 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 84 70 83 59 / 70 10 20 10 OAK RIDGE, TN 84 70 83 58 / 60 10 20 0 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 81 65 80 56 / 60 20 30 10.
603 AM CDT SUN AUG 23 2015 LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES A COLD FRONT LOCATED OVER EAST CENTRAL IOWA AS OF 2 AM WITH A BAND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG THE BOUNDARY. WITH THE HIGHER POPS INITIALLY ACROSS THE WEST. BASED ON THE LATEST TIMING OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED IN THE DAY AS WELL, WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE 70S THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH WEAK WIND PATTERN AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK IN AT THE SURFACE. BUT SLOWLY TRENDING WARMER.
THE UPPER RIDGE IS CONTINUING IN RETREAT MODE WITH ANOTHER COOL POOL OF MID TO UPPER 60S DROPPING IN ON MOMENTUM ACROSS E OK. THIS FAVORABLE RAIN PATTERN WILL CONTINUE WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT LATE TOMORROW. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY TO CLIMB INTO THE MID 90S AREAWIDE WITH LOWS FORECAST TO FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S OVERNIGHT.
SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS MORNING PLACES A COLD FRONT FROM SPRINGFIELD ILLINOIS. WILL KEEP LOW END CHANCE POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON AS SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR AS THE UPSTREAM COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND LEFTOVER BOUNDARIES COMBINED WITH DIFFERENTIAL HEATING MAY RESULT IN ADDITIONAL ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW THIS AFTERNOON. COOLER.
811 AM EDT SUN AUG 23 2015 HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER PENNSYLVANIA WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND THEN MOVES ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY. A RELATIVELY DEEP MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH WILL DOMINATE THE PATTERN OVER PENNSYLVANIA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. AIR MASS ASSOC WITH HIGH PRES RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE UNDER AUGUST SUNSHINE WITH MDL SOUNDINGS SUPPORTIVE OF MAX TEMPS FROM THE U70S OVR THE ALLEGHENIES. COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN OR STALL OVER EASTERN PA ON MONDAY. ALL MED RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE OUR MID-LATE WEEK WX WILL BE DOMINATED BY LINGERING UPPER TROUGH OVR THE NORTHEAST CONUS.
MADE SOME TWEAKS TO THE POPS ALONG THE ATLANTIC SHORELINE, PUSHING THE HIGHER POPS INLAND, THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE SHORT RANGE MODELS. THE ATLANTIC RIDGE BUILDS BRIEFLY ACROSS THE AREA TUE-WED BEFORE BEING SHUNTED BACK TO THE SOUTH AS A TROUGH AMPLIFIES DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD OF THE UNITED STATES. THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF ARE BULLISH IN DEVELOPING THIS AND KEEP IT JUST EAST OF THE BAHAMAS AS THE AMPLIFYING TROUGH DEFLECTS IT.
MAIN UPPER TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS MORNING'S CONVECTION WAS CURRENTLY ROTATING OVER MINNESOTA, WHILE AMPLE SUBSIDENCE WAS SURGING SOUTHWARD THROUGH NEBRASKA. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY WITH READINGS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. THE STRONG DECOUPLING AT THE SFC IN PROXIMITY TO THE RIDGE AXIS MAY DROP A FEW AREAS INTO THE UPPER 40S, WHILE MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE LOWER 50S FOR TONIGHT.
533 AM MDT SUN AUG 23 2015 A BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD EAST OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THROUGH MONDAY WITH THE RIDGE AXIS MOVING OVER WESTERN COLORADO. WINDS WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY AS THE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST BUT WE EXPECT HAZY CONDITIONS TO LINGER AS RESIDUAL SMOKE FROM WESTERN FIRES REMAINS OVER THE REGION. EASTERLY WAVE WILL BE NORTHBOUND ALONG THE WRN PERIPHERY OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE COLORADO AND THE NEW MEXICO BORDER.
951 AM EDT SUN AUG 23 2015 THE STALLED FRONT IS EXPECTED TO RETURN NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TODAY THROUGH MONDAY.
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE AREA TODAY WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION LATE MONDAY.
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT AND WHILE THERE COULD BE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS WESTERN AREAS TONIGHT, WITH SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR AFTER 05Z AT CKV, AND AFTER 09Z AT BNA.