Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
317 AM MDT SUN SEP 6 2015 00Z H5 HAND ANALYSIS HAS A GENERAL TROUGH ALONG THE WHOLE LEFT SIDE OF NOAM. WITH A TRANSITION TO RIDGING OVER SOUTHERN AND EASTERN STATES.
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS ALOFT RESULTS IN HIGHER INSTABILITY AND WITH INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW EXPECTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG THE COAST DURING THE LATE MORNING AND SPREADING INLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE BROAD MID/UPPER LOW RETROGRADES TO THE GULF COAST WHILE A WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD IN ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA. THE WEDGE BEGINS TO WEAKEN BUT THE INVERTED TROUGH MOVES INLAND ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA VEERING WINDS TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST AND BRINGING IN A SURGE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE TO THE AREA. AS WELL AS AN INVERTED TROUGH OFF THE FL ATLANTIC COAST WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN.
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WILL CONTINUE WITH THE WARMER TEMPERATURES AS WE HEAD INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. PATTERN CHANGE COMES THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AS A TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN STATES AND THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVES CLOSER TO US.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MEANWHILE RETROGRADE FROM THE CAROLINAS TO THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. RESPECTIVELY --AND THE 500-300 MB MEAN UPPER LOW OVER THE CAROLINAS-- SSW TOWARD THE GULF COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE MAIN VORT LOBE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SC VORT CENTER IS FORECAST TO PIVOT NORTHWARD AROUND THE E AND NE PERIPHERY OF THE MEAN UPPER LOW. WITH A LACK OF ANY NOTABLE TRIGGER IN THE LOW LEVELS. AMIDST THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE RIDGING/ ANTICYCLONIC FLOW OVER NC. LATEST WRF MODELS AND CAM PRESENTATIONS SUGGEST THE HIGHEST CONCENTRATION OF SHOWERS/STORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
A REGION-WIDE WARMING TREND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH LABOR DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE STATE AND LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW PERSISTS.
EXTENDED RANGE MODELS INDICATE STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE AND DRYING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
603 AM EDT SUN SEP 6 2015 A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA TODAY.
302 AM EDT SUN SEP 6 2015 DRY WEATHER CONTINUES THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND UNDER HIGH PRESSURE ALONG WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. AN ISOLATED SHOWER IS POSSIBLE OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BUT THE NEXT REAL CHANCE FOR RAIN WON'T BE UNTIL MID-WEEK ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT PASSAGE.
408 AM CDT SUN SEP 6 2015 ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY WARM SEPTEMBER DAY IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA WORKS ITS WAY SOUTHEASTWARD. LIGHTER NORTHERLY WINDS AND MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES AREA EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THIS APPROACHING FRONT. BIGGEST ISSUE WILL BE GETTING A GOOD HANDLE ON HOW FAST COOLER AND DRIER AIR MOVES IN. SOMEWHAT MODEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW AT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO OUR REGION.
445 AM CDT SUN SEP 6 2015 WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER CENTRAL TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING. WITH THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NORTHEAST INTO MISSOURI AND ILLINOIS. THE ARKLATEX REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THIS RIDGE.
WITH HIGH PRESSURE ATTEMPTING TO SPREAD FURTHER INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC, A STRONGER SEA BREEZE/EASTERLY COMPONENT MAY DEVELOP, WHICH COULD SHIFT THE FOCUS FOR NUMEROUS STORMS A LITTLE FURTHER INLAND TODAY. H5 TEMP IS FORECASTED TO BE NEAR -8C OR COOLER TODAY, WHICH IS NOTEWORTHY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AND COOLER THAN THE PAST TWO ACTIVE DAYS. FLOW IS PRETTY MUCH SOUTHERLY AT ALL LEVELS BY THE AFTERNOON, WITH WEAK LOW IN THE GULF AND RIDGING CONTINUING TO MAKE INROADS AGAINST IT. RIDGING DOES AN EVEN BETTER JOB OF SHOVING THE SURFACE AND MIDLEVEL LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO, SUCH THAT FLOW BACKS TO THE SOUTHEAST.
200 AM PDT SUN SEP 6 2015 AFTER A COLD START, HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDING OVER THE WEST WILL BRING A WARM UP WITH VERY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO REBUILD OVER THE SOUTHWEST, EXPANDING NORTH AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEK.
AS A NRN STREAM COLD CORE CIRCULATION CENTER LIFTS INTO SRN ALBERTA WHILE A QUASI-STATIONARY SUBTROPICAL RIDGE REMAINS PARKED OVER WRN TEXAS. A WEAK SRN EXTENSION OF THE NRN STREAM TROUGH WAS NOTED IN WV IMAGERY WEST OF THE BAJA AIDING IN MAINTENANCE OF ABNORMALLY STRONG SWLY FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. AS BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE HAS ADVECTED NORTHWEST SETTLING UNDER SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT. THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN TENDENCY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WILL FAVOR RETROGRESSION AND STRENGTHENING OF SUBTROPICAL RIDGING FROM TEXAS INTO ARIZONA AS THE AFOREMENTIONED NRN STREAM TROUGHING AMPLIFIES INTO THE ERN CONUS.
MID LEVEL FLOW PATTERN AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD IS VERY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WITH RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NORTHWARD FROM TX INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY. MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL BACK OFF TO THE WEST A BIT ON MONDAY WITH THE COLD CORE LOW BECOMING MORE ENTRENCHED OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. MAJORITY OF CONVECTION WILL OCCUR IN THE SOUTH IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE LOW AND DEEPER MOISTURE.
AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER THE AREA TODAY WILL KEEP THE OVERALL COVERAGE OF SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY MUCH LOWER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS. THE UPPER HIGH WILL SLIGHTLY SHIFT WESTWARD AS A WEAK UPPER LOW SLOWLY MOVES WEST. WHERE THE BEST MOISTURE AND WEAKER EFFECTS OF THE RIDGE ARE EXPECTED TO BE.
700 AM EDT SUN SEP 6 2015 A RIDGE EXTENDING FROM HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH LABOR DAY.
COOLER IN THE MOUNTAINS. AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN TODAY. FREMONT AND CLARK COUNTIES WILL ONCE MORE HAVE TEMPERATURES MONDAY MORNING AT OR NEAR FREEZING. CUSTER COUNTY WILL BE BELOW FREEZING FOR LOW TEMPEARTURES.
A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL PRODUCE LIGHT RAIN FOR SW WASHINGTON AND NW OREGON TODAY. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR LABOR DAY AS A WEAK UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE CONTINUED THE TREND WHICH SPEEDS UP EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
355 AM CDT SUN SEP 6 2015 (Today and Tonight) A nearly persistence forecast today, with an upper ridge parked directly over West Central Texas. Some of the high resolution models indicate isolated showers and thunderstorms this afternoon, however, this convection has failed to verify the last several days, with strong subsidence under the upper ridge.
244 AM EDT SUN SEP 6 2015 A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA TODAY.
248 AM PDT SUN SEP 6 2015 MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND INCREASING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN OVER THE REGION. COOLING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE HAS MOVED TROUGH WITH HIGHS YESTERDAY AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. HOWEVER WE ARE ALREADY SEEING WARM AIR ADVECTION ACROSS THE REGION AS THE EPAC RIDGE IS BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST AND THE SW US RIDGE BUILDS NORTH AND MERGES TO PROVIDE US WITH VERY WARM TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK.
651 AM EDT SUN SEP 6 2015 UPPER LEVEL RIDGE HOLDING TRUE THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. MOISTURE AND SHOWERS SLOWLY INCREASE MID WEEK AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
248 AM CDT SUN SEP 6 2015 SHORT TERM CONCERNS DOMINATED BY RAIN CHANCES AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND THEN MOVES THROUGH. THIS IS WELL AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL WEAKEN.
405 AM CDT SUN SEP 6 2015 More of the same expected through Labor Day with above normal temperatures continuing under upper ridge.
259 AM CDT SUN SEP 6 2015 The mid-level trough responsible for sending a cold front towards the area is currently tracking over southern Canada. Ahead of the front temperatures will range from the low 90s across east central KS to near 100 in central KS. How much of this develops in the daytime hours will impact storm strength later in the day, as shear is on the low end, and intensity will be more dependent on available CAPE.
417 AM EDT SUN SEP 6 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP VERY WARM CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND.
AS SOME AT BEST WEAK VORTICITY SLIDES AROUND WEAK UPPER LOW TO OUR SOUTH.
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN TO THE AREA TODAY. EXPECT WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT TO FOLLOW ON LABOR DAY.
COOL NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE AREA AS UPPER LOW DEPARTS. BUILDING HEIGHTS MONDAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND WARMER TEMPS. CLOUDS AND WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW DEPARTS. ANOTHER WEAKER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS MAINLY WASHINGTON ON SUNDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS INVOF MOST TERMINALS BETWEEN 06/18Z TO 07/03Z. THE UPPER LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR THE DECENT PRECIP OVER PORTIONS OF OUR AREA CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHEAST TOWARDS WESTERN MONTANA. A WEAK TRANSITORY RIDGE WITHIN THE NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE REGION MONDAY WILL KEEP MOST OF THE AREA DRY. HIGH TEMPS MONDAY WILL BE WARMER THAN ON SUNDAY, BUT TEMPS WILL BE BELOW SEASONAL THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
COLD FRONT NEARING GRAND JUNCTION AND CHEYENNE. AND WENT A LITTLE COOLER TONIGHT IN LINE WITH GUIDANCE AS WE WILL HAVE A LITTLE COOLER AIR MASS AND LESS CLOUD COVER THAN WE HAVE SEEN IN A WHILE. SHOULD BE SOME BELOW FREEZING TEMPS IN THE COLDEST SPOTS IN THE MOUNTAINS.
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN EARLY THIS MORNING CONTINUES TO FEATURE A BROAD RIDGE ACROSS MUCH THE EASTERN CONUS. BENEATH THIS RIDGE. A VERY BROAD AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS SPINNING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THE WEAK UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES WHICH HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR CONVECTION THE PAST TWO DAYS WILL SHEAR OUT AND PUSH WSW OF THE REGION TODAY. VERY WEAK AND SUBTLE DISTURBANCES WILL PASS WEST THROUGH THE REGION TODAY COURTESY OF THE UPPER LOW. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICT WARMER TEMPERATURES ABOVE 700MB LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SO WILL CONTINUE WITH MAINLY A PERSISTENCE FORECAST FOR TEMPERATURES WHICH PUTS HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S AND LOWS IN THE 60S AND LOWER 70S.
THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE IS UNDEFINED. MASS FIELDS THROUGHOUT THE LOWEST LAYERS HAVE BEEN RULED BY THE THERMALLY DRIVEN CIRCULATIONS OF THE NEARBY LANDMASSES.
WE ARE LOOKING AT PWATS WELL OUTSIDE THE NORM AND WET BULB FREEZING LEVELS UPWARDS OF 14KFT. AS THE UPPER LOW TRANSITIONS FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS/SOUTHERN CANADA. THIS FEATURE DISLODGES THE COOLER AIR TO THE WEST. ANOTHER WAVE PIVOTS AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROF FOR MONDAY AM. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE PLAINS AT THE START OF THE PERIOD BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EAST FROM THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. LOW CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MTNS EARLY THIS MORNING. A LITTLE WARMER THAN YDAY AS H85 TEMPS RISE A BIT BUT WITH LOW HUMIDITY. WARMER AS SRLY FLOW DEVELOPS AND H85 TEMPS CONTINUE TO RISE.
647 AM EDT SUN SEP 6 2015 A RIDGE EXTENDING FROM HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH LABOR DAY.
438 AM CDT SUN SEP 6 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY ALONG THE MONTANA/CANADIAN BORDER WILL BE THE DOMINATE WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD. A COLD FRONT IS BEGINNING TO CROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. THE FOG SHOULD LIFT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIFTS INTO SOUTHERN CANADA TONIGHT. TO THE LOWER 50S.
314 AM CDT SUN SEP 6 2015 THE RIDGE. AM INCLINED TO KEEP POPS ON THE LOW SIDE ATTM. BY MONDAY MORNING UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE POSITIONED OVER CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN AS THE FEATURE HELPS TO SQUASH HIGH PRESSURE OVER TEXAS.
OUR COLD UPPER LOW IS ALREADY IN ALBERTA. COOL UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE NW STATES WITH A REINFORCING TROUGH EXPECTED TO COME IN FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA MONDAY.
/ISSUED 405 AM CDT SUN SEP 6 2015/ More of the same expected through Labor Day with above normal temperatures continuing under upper ridge.
355 AM EDT WED JUN 3 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE OVER THE NORTHEAST WITH LOW PRESSURE FORMING OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION PROVIDING DRY WEATHER AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
332 AM EDT WED JUN 3 2015 HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TODAY AND THURSDAY.
431 AM EDT WED JUN 3 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL DRIFT EAST AND MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THURSDAY.
VERY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND TOWARD SUNRISE SOUTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA (AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT/DRYLINE) TRANSPORT INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND POSSIBLY SOME FOG INTO THE AREA. MODELS HAVING SOME DIFFICULTY IN THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE LOW AND STATIONARY FRONT MAKING CONVECTIVE AND TEMPERATURE FORECAST CHALLENGING. MY CURRENT FORECAST MAY BE ON THE HIGH SIDE IF ONE WERE TO BASE IT ON MODEL QPF WHICH IS VERY LITTLE.
357 AM CDT WED JUN 3 2015 A FAIRLY PERSISTENT FCST PATTERN HAS SET UP WITH UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER SOUTHERN PLAINS. AND WEAK CLOSED LOW OVER TN VALLEY. AS NW FLOW BECOMES MORE ORGANISED AROUND PERIPHERY OF UPPER RIDGE.
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH ON THE OREGON AND NRN CA COAST THIS MORNING WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. OUR UPPER FLOW WILL BACK OVERNIGHT AS A STRONG UPPER LOW DEVELOPS OVER NRN CA AND THEN MOVES SOUTH ALONG THE CA COAST THU.
CURRENT SHOWERS AND STORMS IN NRN MINNESOTA IN REGION OF FOCUSED WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF A NORTHERN SHORT WAVE TROUGH. AREAS EAST OF THE KETTLE MORAINE WILL BE COOLER WITH MORE OF A SE WIND BUT SHOULD SEE LOW 70S AWAY FROM THE LAKESHORE. DRY AIR AROUND WESTERN FLANK OF RETREATING HIGH PRESSURE AND BEST MOISTURE RETURN AND FORCING WILL KEEP BETTER POP CHANCES IN THE NW HALF OF THE CWA.
203 AM EDT WED JUN 3 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL DRIFT EAST AND MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THURSDAY. A SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP AND INCREASE MOISTURE AS LOW PRESSURE FORMS OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS: ANOTHER DAY OF CONVECTION IS A CERTAINTY AS AN UPPER LOW DRIFTS EAST OVER THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS WHILE A DIFFUSE COLD FRONT AT THE SURFACE DRIFTS SOUTHEAST TO THE COAST. MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MEANDER WEST TO EAST ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH THE PERIOD.
122 AM EDT WED JUN 3 2015 UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A CLOSED 500 MB LOW OVER EASTERN TN WITH A RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND TROUGHING IN THE WESTERN U. EXPECT THE LOW TO SLOWLY SINK SE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR AND CENTRAL UPPER MI OVERNIGHT WHILE FILLING TO A 30. 0 INCH TROUGH. AS LARGE HIGH PRESSURE NEARS FROM CENTRAL CANADA.
641 AM EDT WED JUN 3 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL DRIFT EAST AND MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THURSDAY.
312 AM CDT WED JUN 3 2015 LOOKS LIKE SUBSIDENCE IS FINALLY ERODING THE LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
337 AM PDT WED JUN 3 2015 BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AS UPPER-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THE REGION.
544 AM CDT WED JUN 3 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
613 AM EDT WED JUN 3 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING CLEARING SKIES TODAY, BEFORE ANOTHER FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR A THUNDERSTORM. HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE WEATHER FAIR INTO EARLY THURSDAY, THOUGH MOISTURE WILL LINGER OVER THE SRN ZONES AND ADD TO THE CLOUD COVER. WILL DRIFT THROUGH THE CAROLINAS WHILE A WEAK TROF DIPS DOWN THROUGH LOWER ONTARIO.
143 AM EDT WED JUN 3 2015 HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL BRING THE RETURN OF LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
307 AM EDT WED JUN 3 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION TODAY. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
419 AM EDT WED JUN 3 2015 MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING YET ANOTHER DRY AND QUIET DAY. CIRRUS WILL STREAM IN FROM TIME TO TIME BUT SHOULD HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON CONTINUATION OF WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS FINALLY BACK CLOSE TO NORMAL. BTWN TX BASED MID TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE FIRMLY ASSERTED INTO SWRN GRTLKS THROUGH THU.
635 AM EDT WED JUN 3 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION TODAY. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BRING THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND.
1237 AM CDT WED JUN 3 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD.
132 AM EDT WED JUN 3 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL FINALLY LIFT OUT OF THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT, ALLOWING FOR CLEARING SKIES AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES FOR MID WEEK. QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS QUEBEC AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND PUSHING CLOUDS AND RAIN WELL TO OUR SOUTH. AS THE UL TROF LIFTS OUT OF NY, SKIES WILL RAPIDLY CLEAR TONIGHT. UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE CAROLINAS WILL BE PUSHING MOISTURE INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION WITH CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT INTO DAYBREAK.
413 AM CDT WED JUN 3 2015 CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST SOUTHEAST TODAY AND MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN GEORGIA AND INTO THE CAROLINAS TONIGHT. THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO FILL AS IT SHIFTS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS.
302 AM CDT WED JUN 3 2015 THE PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED UPPER LOW HAS PROGRESSED SOUTHWARD. WITH THE CENTER OF THE LOW OVER NORTHWEST GEORGIA. CLOUDS HAVE BEGUN TO STREAM SOUTHWARD ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW. WITH TEMPS STILL IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. THIS COULD HELP WITH FOG DEVELOPMENT GIVEN THE LOWERED DEWPOINTS AND INCREASED DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS. THE UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE E/SE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN ACROSS THE WEST. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EASTWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES ALONG THE EASTERN COAST.
The main weather maker for the remainder of the forecast package will be an upper level ridge that is forecast to build over the forecast area. This ridge should keep precipitation chances on the low side for the next seven days. Temperatures are expected to warm to above normal values underneath the ridge the next several days but will be tempered somewhat by upslope flow.
416 AM CDT WED JUN 3 2015 EARLY THIS MORNING SE TEXAS WAS BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
417 AM MDT WED JUN 3 2015 WITH AN UPR TROF OVR CA AND THE PAC NW TODAY. THE NAM SHOWS SOME LIGHT PCPN DEVELOPING WITH THE LOW STRATUS. GENERALLY WEAK SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE AREA AS AN UPPER LOW DIGGING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CALIF COAST SLOWLY PUSHES AN UPPER HIGH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. WARM AIR ALOFT (+12 TO +16C) UNDER THE PASSING RIDGE. MAINLY NORTH AND EAST OF THE HIGHWAY 50 CORRIDOR. THE WARM AIR ALOFT AND EXPECTED LIMITED CONVECTION SHOULD ALLOW FOR HIGHS TO BE AROUND OR SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN TODAY. WITH 80S TO LOWER 90S ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. AND MAINLY 60S AND 70S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
THE DRY WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES IN THE NEAR TERM AS A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS PERSISTS AND STRENGTHENS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/OZARKS WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE SOUTH ATLANTIC STATES CONTINUES TO DRAW RELATIVELY DRY AIR SOUTHWARD INTO THE ARKLAMISS REGION. AND DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGES SHOULD INCREASE A BIT AS HIGHS GET WARMER WHILE LOWS DROP OFF WELL INTO THE 60S.
LOW PRESSURE IN CALIFORNIA WILL ALLOW THUNDERSTORMS TO REDEVELOP ACROSS NORTHWEST NEVADA THURSDAY. THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR THESE STORMS CONTINUE TO RESIDE IN NORTHERN ELKO COUNTY. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SAG TO THE SOUTHEAST AND START CLOSING OFF IN MID-CALIFORNIA BY THURSDAY.
235 AM CDT WED JUN 3 2015 LOW CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM REMAIN OVER PORTIONS OF WEST TENNESSEE IN AREAS MAINLY NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER THIS MORNING. THE UPPER LOW IS NOW LOCATED OVER EAST TENNESSEE. THE MIDSOUTH WILL REMAIN STUCK BETWEEN THE BROAD UPPER TROF IN THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND THE UPPER RIDGE OVER TEXAS.
257 AM EDT WED JUN 3 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BRIEFLY FROM THE NORTH TODAY BRINGING DRIER CONDITIONS.
A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP IN THE CIRCULATION AROUND AN UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.
THE PATTERN INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND WILL FEATURE AN UPPER TROUGH/CLOSED LOW IN THE WESTERN CONUS AND A BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE PLAINS RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AS AN UPPER TROUGH TRANSLATES SOUTHEAST FM SASKATCHEWAN/ALBERTA. THIS EVENTUALLY DEEPENS A TROUGH AROUND THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH FLOW GRADUALLY PROGGED TO TRANSITION NORTHWEST ACROSS THE PLAINS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. WITH REDEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON/EVE ALONG THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
AN UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS TODAY WITH THE COLD AIR ALOFT KEEPING THE AIR-MASS UNSTABLE.
223 AM EDT WED JUN 3 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING CLEARING SKIES TODAY, BEFORE ANOTHER FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR A THUNDERSTORM. HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE WEATHER FAIR INTO EARLY THURSDAY, THOUGH MOISTURE WILL LINGER OVER THE SRN ZONES AND ADD TO THE CLOUD COVER. WILL DRIFT THROUGH THE CAROLINAS WHILE A WEAK TROF DIPS DOWN THROUGH LOWER ONTARIO.
118 AM EDT WED JUN 3 2015 AVIATION THE AREA WILL SEE PLENTY OF DRY WEATHER AND WARMING TEMPERATURES INTO THE DAY ON THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION.
THE MOST RECENT AREAS ARE FAVORING THE STRAITS SOUTH OF THE LOWER AND MIDDLE KEYS. AND GULF WATERS NORTHWEST OF THE LOWER KEYS. A LATITUDINAL TROUGH STRETCHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO AND TO WESTERN CUBA. THE DEEP LAYERED TROUGH WILL LINGER OVER THE EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN STATES AND EXTEND THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
SOUTHEAST OF THE TROUGH WILL SEE INCREASED HUMIDITY AND A SLIGHTLY INCREASED CHANCE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY. BUT A PESSIMISTIC CLOUD FORECAST SEEMS TO BE THE BETTER SIDE TO ERR ON GIVEN THE UPPER LOW ONLY STARTING TO MAKE AN EASTWARD PROGRESSION TO THE CAROLINA COAST THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THE INVERTED TROUGH RUNNING ALONG OR AT LEAST NEAR THE I-71 CORRIDOR WILL HAVE MOST OF THE AVAILABLE LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE POOLED ON THE SOUTHEAST SIDE OF IT NEAREST THE OHIO/WV LINE. VORTICITY MAXIMA WILL ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER LOW AS WELL AND ENHANCE ANY UPWARD MOTION FOUND DURING THE LATE DAY. WITH HIGHS REACHING THE MID 70S WEDNESDAY AND THE LOW 80S THURSDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL WARM TO AROUND 60 WED NIGHT TO THE LOWER 60S THURS NIGHT.
A MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN MEXICO UP INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. DOWNSTREAM FROM BROAD TROUGHING ALONG THE WEST COAST. OVERNIGHT STORM ACTIVITY IS TRACKING AROUND THE RIDGE ACROSS NEBRASKA AND SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL THEN DROP DOWN INTO MISSOURI DURING THE DAY TODAY. THE MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST AND WILL BE OVERHEAD FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND WEEKEND. AS A CLOSED LOW FORMS OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS. WITH THE RIDGE RETROGRADING WHILE A DEEP TROUGH FORMS OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
ANOTHER DAY OF CONVECTION IS A CERTAINTY TODAY AND TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LOW DRIFTS EAST OVER THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS WHILE A DIFFUSE COLD FRONT AT THE SURFACE DRIFTS SOUTHEAST TO THE COAST. MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MEANDER WEST TO EAST ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH THE PERIOD.
1221 AM CDT WED JUN 3 2015 AT H5 CLOSED LOW OVER NORTHEAST CONUS WITH ANOTHER CLOSED LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH INTO THE SOUTHEAST CONUS CENTERED OVER KENTUCKY. RIDGING INTO THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS FROM NORTHERN MEXICO TO IOWA. TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES COOLER BEHIND FRONTAL PASSAGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S.