Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
147 PM EDT Thu Apr 7 2022 Sprawling upper low will continue to wobble over the western Great Lakes through the evening hours, with moisture continuing to wrap around the eastward flank across the airspace. This drier air expected to slowly erode over the course of the morning as a narrow moisture plume spins around the low into lower MI. Regardless, instability more than enough for widely scattered to widespread convective showers (an isolated thundershower can't be ruled out), and with freezing levels only 2-3kft agl, graupel will be possible in the stronger updrafts. Trough axis shifts east of the area by late Friday evening allowing the coldest portion of the airmass to work across SE MI during the night.
/issued 958 AM CDT Thu Apr 7 2022/ Gusty northwesterly or westerly winds are already occurring across the Mid-South this morning behind a reinforcing cold front that moved through early this morning. In addition, expect strato-cumulus clouds to begin to develop by mid-day continuing into the afternoon hours as the region remains in a large scale upper trough. Currently, an upper level low is over extreme northern Wisconsin. Weak disturbances will rotate around the upper low and move through the region today and tonight. Temperatures will be even cooler on Friday as highs will be some 15 to 20 degrees below normal. High pressure will build into the region by Friday night, bringing clear and light winds.
A robust long wave low/trof will sit and spin slowly over the Great Lakes, drawing down its cooler Canadian sourced airmass, clouds, and showery pcpn off and on over the next 48-72 hours. The GFS continues to be overly generous with its near term qpf output, we'll go toward the higher res models for the first 24 hours.
301 PM EDT Thu Apr 7 2022 A line of showers and thunderstorms continues across the south- central part of the forecast area this afternoon while the cold front itself remains across the northern peninsula and continues to slowly shift southward. For tonight, winds quickly turn northwest as high pressure starts to move in from the west. This will usher in much drier and cooler air, with these conditions persisting through the weekend.
All of this was brought to us by vertically stacked low pressure, which per 18z surface analysis was centered over central Wisconsin. [Key Messages] 1) Cold and dreary conditions continue through Friday with rain/snow showers 2) Light snow accumulations under one inch tonight mainly on grassy and elevated surfaces [Discussion] Not much in the way of movement of the vertically stacked low is favored until late Friday, when ridging over the Rockies begins to build into the central and northern Plains. Temperatures should drop into the upper 20s to low 30s for tonight, and with temperatures below freezing aloft this will be enough for any wrap-around precipitation with the low to be all snow. Precip chances should begin to shift east through the day as the low begins to track east, with gradual diminishing expected heading into the evening.
For the most part, though, obs and webcams are showing little impact as temperatures rise above freezing.
316 PM CDT Thu Apr 7 2022 A large and slow moving low pressure system will dominate the weather pattern across the region through Friday. although cold nights near or below freezing will continue.
Cooler and Drier Behind a Cold Front Friday Through the Strongest storms have pushed offshore but areas that have not been worked over (south interior incl. Noticeably cooler and drier air will overspread the area tonight behind the front with lows in the mid to upper 50s north/interior, holding in the mid 60s Treasure coast.
Skies will slowly begin to clear out as dry northwesterly winds continue tomorrow, with sunshine possible by Friday afternoon and evening accompanied by below normal temperatures in the lower 40s.
127 PM PDT Thu Apr 7 2022 Strong high pressure over the region will remain in place tonight through Friday with record or near record highs expected.
This pattern will maintain deep, cooler and drier west to northwest flow through Friday with clear skies. Lows tonight will be much cooler with low to mid 40s inland to low 50s along the coast. Highs on Friday will be slightly cooler than today,ranging from the mid 60s to lower 70s across the entire area.
This is causing the scattered showers along and ahead of the trough. Forecast soundings as well as P-type plumes still are suggesting that there will be a mix of rain and snow showers late tonight into early Friday morning as this round of precipitation moves across the area as temperatures drop in the low-mid 30s before changing back to rain by late morning. Friday night looks dry as the upper low continues moves east with some clearing late on Friday night.
1055 AM PDT Thu Apr 7 2022 High pressure will bring mild temperatures for Thursday. Another cold front moves into the region Friday afternoon, with more shower chances and windy conditions that persist into the weekend.
(The rest of this afternoon ) Deep upper trough remains over the central CONUS today. Daytime heating combined with the cold temps aloft beneath upper trough have brought increasing cloud as the day has worn on.
Less than 20 mph expected after midnight as temperatures continue to cool dropping into the upper 20s to low 30s with much of the CWA below freezing due to mainly clear skies. The gradient looks to weaken to about 3-5 mb across the high plains that will see northwest winds pick up to 20-30 mph wind gusts by mid to late morning due to daytime heating and mixing of the winds aloft in the low levels.
Outside of the fire threat, which will be highest west of I-35, sunny skies will prevail with temperatures climbing into the lower 70s. A quiet night is expected with mostly clear skies and temperatures falling back into the lower 40s.
High pressure remains in place through tomorrow. From around 3 am to 9 am, a cold front moves through the area.
132 PM EDT Thu Apr 7 2022 Deep low pressure over the upper Midwest moves slowly northeast reaching western Quebec by Friday night.
Temperatures will continue to range in the 60s throughout the afternoon in the wake of a cold front associated with a strong upper level trough with a closed low over the Great Lakes region. A strong low level jet within the trough will allow for windy conditions throughout the rest of the afternoon into the evening. Tomorrow, expect breezy conditions once again with highs in the lower to upper 60s, with the exception of highs in the upper 50s for areas along and north of the Highway 82 corridor. Relative humidity values will range in the lower 30s to upper 20s for a large portion of the CWA. /AJ/ A trough axis will swing east through the region Friday night, with ridging aloft increasing across the CWA during the weekend.
A deep-layer closed low--nearly vertically stacked--is currently situated over the western Great Lakes. Cold mid-level temperatures (-25 to -30C at 500 mb) associated with this closed low, in conjunction with modest daytime boundary- layer warming, will foster a diurnal uptick in shower coverage today.
KS Chattanooga Airport, TN 42 54 36 54 34 / 0 40 10 10 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 41 54 35 50 32 / 10 80 30 50 0 Oak Ridge, TN 40 54 35 51 31 / 10 80 30 50 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 38 53 34 47 31 / 10 80 60 80 10.
Continued warming through Friday as Pacific upper ridge passes overhead tonight and then east of us Friday. Clouds will increase from the west Friday afternoon as a strong cold front approaches.
The big upper low is spinning across Wisconsin this afternoon bringing rain, wet snow and ice pellets to that area. The convective nature of the precip means that brief heavy rates could overcome above freezing ground temperatures and accumulate, even on paved surfaces. In the situation of cold upper lows with convective type precip, there is always the conundrum of what to call the frozen precip, such as graupel, sleet, hail or ice/snow pellets. We choose to avoid using sleet, which suggests snow melting and refreezing and go with ice pellets instead.
Warm and dry conditions again today as high pressure exits Western Washington. A weak cold front will then bring a return to light rain Friday as well as a pattern shift to cooler and more unsettled conditions through the weekend.
500 mb temps on 12Z sounding remain on the warmer side with -6C, so it will take a bit of a stronger updraft for hail formation. Model consensus remain fairly persistent in pushing the front through the region, with some cooler/drier air advection in its wake starting late tonight. By Friday afternoon, a benign weather pattern will be establishing with high pressure developing over the region. Temperatures today will climb into the low 90s with the warm/moist airmass prevailing, then a cooling trend starts on friday behind the front with highs, mainly in the low 80s.
Expecting clear skies to prevail through tonight, allowing for temps to drop into the low to mid 40s across the area. However, Frost/Freeze products will mostly likely be warranted for tomorrow tonight with low temps continuing to drop into the mid 30s with Td in the low 30s.
As the upper level low swings to the north there is some wrap around precipitation on the back side that will affect middle TN.
302 PM CDT Thu Apr 7 2022 Clouds continue to spread into the Mid-South this afternoon thanks to a large scale upper trough that remains located over the Central United States. The upper trough will finally move east Friday Night which should allow the clouds to clear. If the winds diminish then frost will be likely occur across a good portion of the CWA as temperatures drop into the lower to mid 30s.
124 PM MDT Thu Apr 7 2022 Water vapor shows main upper low over the Minnesota/Wisconsin region, with northwest flow aloft. At the surface, high pressure sits over Montana with a tight pressure gradient over the forecast area causing strong northwest winds that will slowly decrease this afternoon. Upper ridge builds over the Rockies on Friday and slowly trends towards the upper plains, bringing drier and warmer air into the region.
Expect overnight lows int he mid 30s to near 40, with a few low lying areas in the lower 30s. Guidance was undercut for low temperatures overnight, especially in the low lying areas. Another pleasant day is in store on Friday with highs in the low to mid 70s for most locations.
/issued 400 AM EDT Thu Apr 7 2022/ A cold front will move across the region today and early tonight preceded by showers and thunderstorms.
224 PM MDT Thu Apr 7 2022 High pressure now moving over the region from the west will provide widespread sunny skies and light winds for the next few days.
256 PM CDT Thu Apr 7 2022 Windy conditions will continue this afternoon due to a strong north south pressure gradient from an upper low over eastern Minnesota. The upper low will continue to progress eastward over the the Great Lakes keeping the Northern Plains in northerly flow aloft. Therefore, the High Wind Warning and Wind Advisory are going continue until 00Z. Skies are beginning to clear as the wrap around, from the low, moves eastward. Friday, temperatures will begin their march back up to normal as ridging subtly creeps into eastern Montana. Northwest winds will advect drier air into the area decreasing dew points into the low teens tomorrow afternoon. The pattern begins to shift momentarily as an upper level ridge over the Northern Rockies will inch its way over the Northern Plains.
Wind speeds were gusting into the low 40 knot range. Therefore it may only feel slight warmer.
A cold front over our area currently stretching from coastal Glynn county to Suwannee county will continue to shift southeastward and exit the area tonight.
This sunshine is helping to counteract the cold air advection as temperatures at 19z have risen into the lower 60s in most locations. These clouds will likely prevent temperatures from dropping as cool as they might have late tonight and most locations should bottom out in the lower 40s -- with a few areas along the Plateau slipping into the upper 30s.
223 PM CDT Thu Apr 7 2022 Primary challenge in the short term will revolve around showery/cool/breezy conditions associated with a robust upper low.
Issued by National Weather Service Hastings NE 323 PM CDT Thu Apr 7 2022 A large upper low has been responsible for a variety of weather concerns today, including rain, snow, high winds, and even some blowing dust. Winds have overachieved just slightly, and the High Wind Warning was expanded across much of eastern Nebraska to account for this. Winds remain out of the northwest on Friday, but speeds will be significantly decreased as the upper low moves east and the surface pressure gradient weakens.
123 PM MDT Thu Apr 7 2022 Water vapor shows main upper low over the Minnesota/Wisconsin region, with northwest flow aloft. At the surface, high pressure sits over Montana with a tight pressure gradient over the forecast area causing strong northwest winds that will slowly decrease this afternoon. Upper ridge builds over the Rockies on Friday and slowly trends towards the upper plains, bringing drier and warmer air into the region.
Cooler drier air filtering into the FA behind a front. Overnight lows falling down into the low to middle 40s.
A clear sky is expected with low temperatures ranging from the lower to middle 20s in far eastern Colorado to the middle 20s to lower 30s elsewhere. we'll become more influenced by the upper ridge axis that reaches the area from the west overnight.
(The rest of tonight) Expansive upper low in the Great Lakes area maintaining deep northwesterly flow this evening. There will be a window early Friday morning for some snow flakes to mix in in the higher elevations of NW AR but odds of measurable precip in either form remain very slim. (Tomorrow through Thursday) The upper low over the Great Lakes region is expected to remain in place during the day Friday and then begin to push east/northeast Friday night. one more day of gusty northwesterly winds and cooler temperatures are forecast Friday. In the wake of the departing upper level low. a ridge of high pressure is progged to push across the Plains over the weekend.
240 PM PDT Thu Apr 7 2022 High pressure aloft and Santa Ana winds will continue to bring hot conditions through Friday west of the mountains.
Dry air works in from west to east tonight with lower elevations seeing some clearing while hill tops and ridges may hold on to clouds through the night. 75 inches of rain is likely in association with low pressure lifting northeast across the Delmarva Peninsula. Mid level lapse rates approach 8C/km and with low freezing levels, it will be easy for any stronger showers and thunderstorms to contain some small hail. With freezing levels dropping to around 2000 feet, the higher elevations of the northern Mountains and the Laurel mountains could see a dusting of snow overnight.
Winds will back off slightly overnight, as a strong low pressure system lifts to the northeast. An upper ridge will move over the region through the weekend with warmer temperatures expected.
325 PM MDT Thu Apr 7 2022 Increasingly clear, warm, and less windy today and tomorrow, as upper level ridging builds in over the region. Temps will be in the lower 70s Friday west of Rosebud County, while the mid to upper 50s will hold on along the eastern state line. A strong cold front approaches the area Friday night with increasing clouds and shower chances building in mainly after midnight.
A large upper low has been responsible for a variety of weather concerns today, including rain, snow, high winds, and even some blowing dust. Winds have overachieved just slightly, and the High Wind Warning was expanded across much of eastern Nebraska to account for this. Winds remain out of the northwest on Friday, but speeds will be significantly decreased as the upper low moves east and the surface pressure gradient weakens.
Myers while a narrow band of showers along the cold front is currently approaching the Tampa Bay area. These will diminish into tonight as the cold front pushes down the state and high pressure settles into the area providing cooler/drier conditions for Fri and into the weekend. /issued 301 PM EDT Thu Apr 7 2022/ A line of showers and thunderstorms continues across the south- central part of the forecast area this afternoon while the cold front itself remains across the northern peninsula and continues to slowly shift southward. For tonight, winds quickly turn northwest as high pressure starts to move in from the west. This will usher in much drier and cooler air, with these conditions persisting through the weekend.
530 PM EDT Thu Apr 7 2022 Showers and isolated thunderstorms percolated under very cold temperatures aloft today, due to a very large and deep upper low centered over the upper Midwest, and aided by an impulse spiraling around it. However, another lobe rotating around the low, accompanied by deep layer moisture, will move in from the northwest later tonight. It will be marginally cold enough for snow to be seen in the air by dawn, but temperatures (aside from Black Mountain) will be above freezing. The extended will begin with broad upper level troughing across the Eastern CONUS.
So, decided to let the High Wind Warning expire at 00Z and replaced it with a Wind Advisory until 03Z.
(This evening through Friday) Much of the country is under a highly amplified wave pattern today with a large trough encompassing the eastern half of the CONUS, and an amplified ridge approaching the Rockies.
650 PM CDT Thu Apr 7 2022 A large and slow moving low pressure system will dominate the weather pattern across the region through Friday. although cold nights near or below freezing will continue.
The strong cold front that will move through the region tomorrow afternoon and evening is on track, and gusts could reach 50 mph briefly. Strong Pacific cold front crossing the area Friday night.
710 PM EDT Thu Apr 7 2022 An area of low pressure and strong cold front will cross the region today and tonight.
Windy conditions will continue this afternoon due to a strong north south pressure gradient from an upper low over eastern Minnesota. The upper low will continue to progress eastward over the the Great Lakes keeping the Northern Plains in northerly flow aloft. Therefore, the High Wind Warning and Wind Advisory are going continue until 00Z. Skies are beginning to clear as the wrap around, from the low, moves eastward. Friday, temperatures will begin their march back up to normal as ridging subtly creeps into eastern Montana. Northwest winds will advect drier air into the area decreasing dew points into the low teens tomorrow afternoon. The pattern begins to shift momentarily as an upper level ridge over the Northern Rockies will inch its way over the Northern Plains.
Cooler temperatures this weekend as a cold front pushes across the area with most locations remaining dry.
603 PM CDT Thu Apr 7 2022 (Through tonight ) A closed upper level low pressure system remained over the Great Lakes region this afternoon. a weak upper level impulse dropping southward along the backside of the upper low could allow for a few rain drops to become possible mainly across parts of far Northwest Arkansas. cooler conditions are expected with the continued northwesterly winds. (Tomorrow through Thursday) The upper low over the Great Lakes region is expected to remain in place during the day Friday and then begin to push east/northeast Friday night. one more day of gusty northwesterly winds and cooler temperatures are forecast Friday. In the wake of the departing upper level low. a ridge of high pressure is progged to push across the Plains over the weekend.
557 PM CDT Thu Apr 7 2022 (This evening through Friday) Much of the country is under a highly amplified wave pattern today with a large trough encompassing the eastern half of the CONUS, and an amplified ridge approaching the Rockies.
Water vapor shows main upper low over the Minnesota/Wisconsin region, with northwest flow aloft. At the surface, high pressure sits over Montana with a tight pressure gradient over the forecast area causing strong northwest winds that will slowly decrease this afternoon. Upper ridge builds over the Rockies on Friday and slowly trends towards the upper plains, bringing drier and warmer air into the region.
CD Chattanooga Airport, TN 42 55 36 56 35 / 0 40 0 0 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 41 54 35 51 32 / 0 80 30 30 10 Oak Ridge, TN 39 53 35 51 32 / 10 80 30 40 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 37 52 33 46 30 / 10 80 50 70 20 TN.
A cold front will continue to move through the region. 500 mb temps on 12Z sounding remain on the warmer side with -6C, so it will take a bit of a stronger updraft for hail formation. Model consensus remain fairly persistent in pushing the front through the region, with some cooler/drier air advection in its wake starting late tonight. By Friday afternoon, a benign weather pattern will be establishing with high pressure developing over the region. Temperatures today will climb into the low 90s with the warm/moist airmass prevailing, then a cooling trend starts on friday behind the front with highs, mainly in the low 80s.
840 PM EDT Thu Apr 7 2022 A cold front will push east and off the North Carolina coast tonight.
818 PM CDT Thu Apr 7 2022 A large and slow moving low pressure system will dominate the weather pattern across the region through Friday. although cold nights near or below freezing will continue. At the surface, a trough of low pressure will move east as well, shifting winds from west-southwest to northwest tonight.
528 PM EDT Thu Apr 7 2022 Showers and isolated thunderstorms percolated under very cold temperatures aloft today, due to a very large and deep upper low centered over the upper Midwest, and aided by an impulse spiraling around it. However, another lobe rotating around the low, accompanied by deep layer moisture, will move in from the northwest later tonight. It will be marginally cold enough for snow to be seen in the air by dawn, but temperatures (aside from Black Mountain) will be above freezing.
510 PM MDT Thu Apr 7 2022 Water vapor shows main upper low over the Minnesota/Wisconsin region, with northwest flow aloft. At the surface, high pressure sits over Montana with a tight pressure gradient over the forecast area causing strong northwest winds that will slowly decrease this afternoon. Upper ridge builds over the Rockies on Friday and slowly trends towards the upper plains, bringing drier and warmer air into the region.
959 PM CDT Thu Apr 7 2022 Light showers from high-based clouds continue over the Midsouth, around the southern periphery of a anomalously deep upper low centered over the upper Midwest. /issued 302 PM CDT Thu Apr 7 2022/ Clouds continue to spread into the Mid-South this afternoon thanks to a large scale upper trough that remains located over the Central United States. The upper trough will finally move east Friday Night which should allow the clouds to clear. If the winds diminish then frost will be likely occur across a good portion of the CWA as temperatures drop into the lower to mid 30s.
/issued 302 PM CDT Thu Apr 7 2022/ Clouds continue to spread into the Mid-South this afternoon thanks to a large scale upper trough that remains located over the Central United States. The upper trough will finally move east Friday Night which should allow the clouds to clear. If the winds diminish then frost will be likely occur across a good portion of the CWA as temperatures drop into the lower to mid 30s.
252 AM MDT Fri Apr 8 2022 Upper level ridge will move over the area, while the next leeward trough begins to take shape at the surface at the Rocky Mountain Front.
411 AM EDT Fri Apr 8 2022 A mid latitude low moving eastward over the eastern United States has pushed a pre-front trough into the Keys eastern Gulf of Mexico waters. The cold front will eventually decay over the Straits of Florida later today. The frontal boundary will cause the flow to become cyclonic and advect cooler air into the area.