Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
247 PM MDT Sat Apr 17 2021 While yesterday's system moves into the MS River Valley, another trough over the western CONUS will slowly push east towards the Tri- State area today. Current guidance has the trough axis moving across the area during the overnight hours. While we wait for this upper- level trough to move in, the winds aloft are expected to become zonal to the west with winds from the surface to the mid-levels keeps us cool with NW flow. At the surface, a lee trough is expected to move across the Plains today providing potential for rain showers during the afternoon and ending around sunset. Sunday, the upper level trough will continue to move across the Plains as a ridge builds and moves onto the West Coast.
319 PM EDT Sat Apr 17 2021 Low pressure and light rain showers will continue to move away to the east of the area tonight allowing weak high pressure to arrive on Sunday resulting in drier conditions along with moderating temperatures.
940 PM EDT Sat Apr 17 2021 19z sfc analysis shows weak low pressure over eastern Kentucky with light winds and some sprinkles in the south along with a few light rain showers north. They all depict a weak trough moving through the Ohio Valley tonight into Sunday morning with some unconsolidated energy drifting by and minimal height falls. The next trough, upstream, is better resolved in the models and a tad stronger than the current one.
Warm and dry conditions will continue as high pressure remains in place this weekend. Onshore flow returns Sunday and will persist allowing for cooler highs and increasing cloud cover but continued dry conditions. A potential pattern change is possible late in the week, with a return to rain and cooler temperatures possible.
605 PM CDT Sat Apr 17 2021 The weak weather system that brought clouds and sprinkles to the area today will slowly move southward tonight, causing skies to clear and temperatures to fall near freezing by sunrise. Temperatures rise by about 10 degrees compared to Saturday, with highs in the low to mid 60s.
Upper level trough and cold pocket aloft, and steep low level lapse rates, has allowed scattered showers to develop in our southern counties this afternoon. Sunday: Another weak upper level trough arrives in our southern counties with another chance of scattered showers in the afternoon. A cold front moving through late Sunday night will bring unseasonably cold temperatures for early to mid week.
A low pressure system and strong cold front will advance southeastward across the Northland on Sunday.
633 PM CDT Sat Apr 17 2021 (This evening through Sunday) Scattered light showers/sprinkles possible through mid-evening across northern into central Oklahoma as s/wv trough progresses eastward across Kansas. Amount of mid-level cloud cover will be tricky, with bands of clouds associated with mentioned s/wv trough across northern and central Oklahoma, and deformation band farther south and west.
Mild through this evening, then colder with north winds Sunday along with rain or snow arriving with a cold front. After a quiet and mild Saturday across the Northern Plains, a cold front is expected to drop south across the region Sunday morning. Breezy northerly winds and cooler temperatures will also accompany the front as highs in the 30s north to 40s south are expected, though in the south the warmest temperatures may be in the morning.
Otherwise, temperatures should fall into the lower to middle 40s for lows by morning.
450 PM MDT Sat Apr 17 2021 At the beginning of the short term period, the CWA sees a westerly flow as a positively tilted upper air trough resides over the western CONUS. During Saturday night, the trough's axis passes over the CWA turning the flow more north-northwesterly. Rest of the day temperatures look to range from the lower 40s to lower 50s. Saturday night lows expect to be between the lower and upper 20s. Another upper air trough beginning its descent from Canada associated with an upper air low over the Hudson Bay in the evening hours with its base making it to the northern Plains area overnight.
Weak high pressure is currently situated over the region, and fair weather cumulus clouds have developed over all but the far eastern part of the area. The high will remain dominant tonight, and expect the cumulus to dissipate with the loss of daytime heating this evening. High temperatures on Sunday will range from the upper 40s north to the lower 60s south, with lows Sunday night in the mid 20s. Models are well calibrated to a long wave trough influencing the central and northeast CONUS through the middle of the week.
/NEW/ /Through Sunday Evening/ Satellite and upper air analyses indicate a positive-tilt trough lagging back over the Rockies with strong zonal flow across the southern CONUS out ahead of it.
Strong high pressure aloft remains in control of our weather today with sunny skies and unseasonably warm weather for all locations inland from the coast. The upper ridge and associated low level thermal trough move right over us tomorrow, and despite some increase in high cloud, this will produce the warmest day of the year so far. Marine stratus will remain along the coast tomorrow and probably deepen and surge farther inland tomorrow night as onshore flow increases behind the thermal trough.
Fairly quiet weekend is underway with clouds being the primary forecast challenge along with low temperatures flirting with the freezing mark. Lower MI currently sits in between several larger scale features with weak mid level ridge sliding across the region today. Strong zonal southern stream of the jet is laid out across the southern half of the conus while a stacked low pressure system drift northeastward along the Atlantic coast. Northern stream trough is holding well to the north over dipping into northern Ontario today.
With very light winds expected to persist overnight until near daybreak, there could be some radiational cooling over the larger islands of the lower Keys.
More cloud cover will continue to push into the FA overnight, as the next cold front moves in. A seasonably strong cold front will move across the region through Sunday morning. A notable increase in winds from the northwest will denote the cold front along with a greater than 40 percent chance for rain showers along and near the front. Temperatures may reach into the 50s in the far southern Valley ahead of the front Sunday, but the majority of tomorrow will be noted by cooler temps behind the cold front.
In its place, a dry northerly subsident flow aloft as the trough axis passes to the south of the forecast area this evening.
753 PM EDT Sat Apr 17 2021 A weak low pressure system will move northeast along a stationary front stretching from the central Gulf Coast to the southeast coast tonight.
322 PM MDT Sat Apr 17 2021 Afternoon update: Cold front expected overnight with precipitation following on Sunday.
Also, with continued cloud cover and light winds persisting, temperatures have been a bit warmer than expected with dew points being the opposite. BW Chattanooga Airport, TN 46 70 47 72 48 / 0 0 0 0 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 46 67 45 69 45 / 0 10 10 0 10 Oak Ridge, TN 43 67 46 69 46 / 0 10 10 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 43 63 40 67 42 / 20 10 10 10 10.
549 PM MDT Sat Apr 17 2021 Early afternoon WV satellite imagery showed a upper level trough from the Upper Midwest into CA.
Clear tonight then sunny and warmer Sunday except for increasing clouds late in the day in central Idaho as a cold front approaches from the north.
Boxell (Issued 225 PM CDT Sat Apr 17 2021) Tonight through Sunday night: Quiet conditions this period with low level thermal trough and surface ridging building in through Sunday Morning. Flow becomes westerly ahead of low pressure passing by to our north. Surface cold front and mid level speed max affects the area Sunday night.
Also a little cooler, especially at night through the period. Highs both Sunday and Monday in the low to mid 70s for most locations.
An upper level low continues to move to the east this morning. Mid clouds continue to move through the eastern part of the forecast area, but should slowly move to the east as the upper level low moves further to the east. A cold front moves through the forecast area from north to south Sunday night.
Highs should again be seasonable in the lower 60s.
212 AM EDT Sun Apr 18 2021 A weak low pressure system will move northeast along a stationary front stretching from the central Gulf Coast to the southeast coast tonight.
Clouds are increasing across northern Minnesota as a trough clearly evident on water vapor imagery continues to dive southeast across Saskatchewan and Manitoba. Thermal ridging will build eastward in advance of the trough today and will send highs into the low to mid 60s. The cold front will reach central Minnesota early afternoon, then continue south and clear Minnesota and west central Wisconsin early this evening.
A dry and seasonal day is expected on Monday as high pressure builds into the area.
331 AM EDT Sun Apr 18 2021 Impactful weather: Freezing temperatures through daybreak for sensitive agricultural areas of NW lower Michigan. Pattern synopsis and forecast: Deep low pressure is lifting up the north Atlantic coast early this morning, while upper troughing was seen in the central Plains and in Manitoba/Ontario. Skies start to increase in cloudiness by late this evening and especially overnight as the cold front approaches. High temperatures will be similar to yesterday, in the low to mid 50s in eastern upper, and in the mid to upper 50s in nrn lower. Lows tonight will be in the lower half of the 30s for most areas. The surface cold front speeds southeastward likely reaching Lake Huron by 18z Monday taking the rain showers along with it.
Also, with continued cloud cover and light winds persisting, temperatures have been a bit warmer than expected with dew points being the opposite. Chattanooga Airport, TN 70 47 72 48 75 / 0 10 0 10 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 67 45 69 45 73 / 0 20 0 10 20 Oak Ridge, TN 67 46 69 46 73 / 10 20 0 0 20 Tri Cities Airport, TN 63 40 67 42 71 / 10 20 10 10 20.
A low pressure system and strong cold front will advance southeastward across the Northland on Sunday. Areas in the Arrowhead may see locally higher amounts, especially in the higher terrain areas.
239 AM MDT Sun Apr 18 2021 At the beginning of the short term period, the CWA sees a westerly flow as a positively tilted upper air trough resides over the western CONUS.
343 AM CDT Sun Apr 18 2021 A cold front moving through the Northland today and tonight is the focus. Models are in good agreement with an elongated area of low pressure moving over the Northland today, and its associated cold front following behind. Vigorous cold air advection behind the low, accompanied by an upper low that closes off, will bring enough forcing to generate some snow showers/flurries from the Arrowhead into northwest Wisconsin.
Off of the Caprock where skies will be a bit more sunny temperatures should be able to warm into the low to mid 60's. Radiational cooling conditions will be much better tonight however a slightly warmer airmass will also be in place to limit how cold it can get.
Today A weak mid-level trough and modest sfc-850mb convergence passing through the area could lead to isolated pop-up showers during the afternoon. Periods of sun and a well mixed boundary layer should push high temps into the low/mid 60s once again. Tonight A cold front will reach the northern section of the forecast area after midnight. Max wet-bulb temps aloft between 1-2 C and above freezing surface temps (mid/upper 30s) support mainly rain. The timing of the cold front on Monday is faster than previously forecast with the front near the Missouri by sunrise.
Main concerns are elevated fire risk today /see Fire Weather section/ and rain/snow with strong cold front overnight. Further northwest, the strong cold front expected into the area tonight is now approaching the U. This will favor warmer temperatures, along with westerly flow warm advection bringing about a 3C warmup at 925 mb west of the river and 2C elsewhere per latest RAP/NAM guidance. passage of strong cold front from north to south across the forecast area remains on track. Temperatures will remain above freezing until front passes through a given area. Much colder airmass advects into the forecast area behind cold front Monday. with high temperatures climbing into the lower to middle 40s.
1130 PM CDT Sat Apr 17 2021 The cold front is still upstream, but it is moving toward southern Saskatchewan and southern Manitoba. More cloud cover will continue to push into the FA overnight, as the next cold front moves in. A seasonably strong cold front will move across the region through Sunday morning. A notable increase in winds from the northwest will denote the cold front along with a greater than 40 percent chance for rain showers along and near the front. Temperatures may reach into the 50s in the far southern Valley ahead of the front Sunday, but the majority of tomorrow will be noted by cooler temps behind the cold front.
Large scale pattern this morning consisting of a positive tilt longwave trough extending from the Great Lakes region to the southwestern CONUS. At the surface, broad high pressure enveloped the region. A cold front is progged to sweep southward through the norther Plains/upper Midwest this afternoon in association with an upper trough dropping into the lower 48.
Given that cloud cover will linger for much of the day, especially across southern portions of the area, temperatures will only climb into the low 70s across all Florida zones.
Highs Sunday will be fairly uniform in the lower to mid 60s.
Otherwise, temperatures should fall into the lower to middle 40s for lows by morning. This and continued northerly flow in its wake will keep temperatures on the cooler side of seasonal norms through Monday, but we will gradually warm each day. Overnight lows will remain in the 40s, while high temps climb into the lower 70s by Monday.
Broad surface ridging/light winds will allow temperatures to dip into the 30s Sunday night, with some patchy frost possible over northwest AR.
The highest chances will be east of the Highway 65 corridor with lightning being the primary hazard.
If you got an early start to spring planting, be ready to take some precautions - freezing temps are expected Tue/Wed mornings. Again, confidence on the low end in the details but will lean the forecast toward these current trends. As for when we'll say goodbye to the cool conditions - the 8 to 14 day outlook from CPC doesn't bring much hope, keeping the region under the higher likelihood to stay cold. That said, the EC and GFS (especially the GFS) showing signs of ridge building to the west for the last week of April - gradually pushing eastward.
Temperatures will fall into the lower 40s. By Monday morning the upper trough axis will be overhead and quickly exiting east as low amplitude ridging builds in overhead.
Gusty north winds will be strongest in the lower Colorado River and eastern San Bernardino County today.
After a sunny start a mid level trough will swing through northern areas of the Mid-South with an increase in cloud cover along with isolated to scattered showers. Weak high pressure prevails with mostly sunny skies, light winds and slightly milder temps around 70F.
cloud bases above 5000 ft generally favored this forecast period * None Fairly quiet weekend is underway with clouds being the primary forecast challenge along with low temperatures flirting with the freezing mark. Lower MI currently sits in between several larger scale features with weak mid level ridge sliding across the region today. Strong zonal southern stream of the jet is laid out across the southern half of the conus while a stacked low pressure system drift northeastward along the Atlantic coast. Northern stream trough is holding well to the north over dipping into northern Ontario today.
Tonight through Monday Upper pattern has not changed appreciably today and remains largely characterized by a broad area of troughing covering most of the central and eastern United States. Stronger upper ridging off the Pacific northwest will help keep a progressive pattern over the region through the period. Some drier and cooler air will work in tonight allowing for decent clearing and a rather chilly night by Mid April standards. No significant impacts are expected from this feature with a general mix of clouds and sun across the state and temperatures a bit warmer. Weak high pressure will bring dry conditions and warmer temperatures for Monday but attention will be turning to a cold front dropping down from the north.
High pressure building into the region through the weekend will bring quieter weather. The large scale pattern this evening shows strong high pressure centered over the PacNW coast. Meanwhile, an elongated trough that previously extended across southern Utah has now shifted south into Arizona, with trough axis extending from the Four Corners through the southern tip of Nevada. Showers located near and ahead of the trough axis have trended downward this evening and should completely wind down within the next hour or. This trough will push a cold front into Utah Monday afternoon, accompanied by a quick round of valley rain and higher elevation snow.
The wave will be accompanied by a strong Canadian cold front.
248 AM EDT Sun Apr 18 2021 Warmer temperatures are expected today but there may be a couple of showers this afternoon.
1059 PM CDT Sat Apr 17 2021 (This evening through Sunday) Scattered light showers/sprinkles possible through mid-evening across northern into central Oklahoma as s/wv trough progresses eastward across Kansas. Amount of mid-level cloud cover will be tricky, with bands of clouds associated with mentioned s/wv trough across northern and central Oklahoma, and deformation band farther south and west.
Weak inverted ridging across the region tonight and tomorrow will bring continued tranquil conditions. Monday will see the main impacts of the cold front as it pushes through and the cold air settles in from north to south.
Further upstream across Canada, an upper trough was noted moving south. A cold front associated with this trough was noted across Alberta with temps in the teens behind it. Closer to home, high pressure was centered over southeast CO with ridging all the way into the Gulf of Mexico.
Early afternoon WV satellite imagery showed a upper level trough from the Upper Midwest into CA. Upper trough and strong cold front to the north will plunge south into WY/NE Sunday night and early Monday. Current models and ensembles remain in good agreement with widespread accumulating snow developing behind the cold front Sunday night into Monday. There is sufficient dynamic forcing aloft and low level upslope flow to enhance snowfall, especially over the higher terrain. Winter Weather Advisory criteria is looking more likely given the progressive nature of the upper trough. Lows Monday night will be in the teens, except single digits for the higher terrain and valleys west of I-25.
It will be significantly warmer west of the mountains.
1045 PM CDT Sat Apr 17 2021 The weak weather system that brought clouds and sprinkles to the area today will slowly move southward tonight, causing skies to clear and temperatures to fall near freezing by sunrise.
234 AM MDT Sun Apr 18 2021 Anchored massive western NOAM ridge will continue to support long trajectory N-S flow over central NOAM through the week. A potent trough will slide down the front of the ridge today, supporting a strong cold front into the region, with accumulating snow tonight and a period of below normal temps after. Mild conds can be expected ahead of the cold front today, with 50s/60s common across the SE half. There will be enough instability present to allow the cold front aloft to support convective showers, possibly a few thunderstorms ahead of the main FGEN band as it settles south. Otherwise, FGEN banding will allow a generally 3-5 inches on the surrounding plains, with local banding supporting the higher end of these amounts.
(This evening through Sunday) An upper level low currently centered near the Four Corners region will slowly track south, reaching northern Mexico by Monday morning. Overnight low temperatures will also be below normal, in the low to mid 40s.
358 AM CDT Sun Apr 18 2021 A deep upper low centered over Hudson Bay and a large upper trough extending southwest into WY, MT and the Northern Plains will drive a strong cold front southward today. This cold front will drop south to near the NE/SD border by late this afternoon. The strong cold front will drop quickly south through the area tonight.
359 AM CDT Sun Apr 18 2021 This mornings cold frontal passage and associated precip the primary impact or concern today. Cold front and low pressure system will slide across the area this morning with temps ahead of the front above freezing and setting the stage for mostly rain with the exception of areas along the international border where thermal profiles suggest some snow showers are possible.
The bulk of the rain has moved on to the SE as the low moves away. Even with the high clouds for part of the night, we should see readings a few degrees cooler tonight. Monday will be picture perfect with still a light NW flow, ample sunshine, low humidity and highs a few degrees warmer but still in the 70s.
347 AM CDT Sun Apr 18 2021 A cold front will be the main weather maker today.
Meanwhile, troughing currently centered over southwestern KS will continue sinking southeast and brush northern AR by this afternoon. A combination of modest deep layer moisture and instability (MLCAPE values of a few hundred J/kg), along with subtle ascent tied to the passing trough, will be enough to generate isolated to scattered showers and storms over roughly the northern third to half of the area.
We are 10 degrees warmer here in Shreveport at 3a. Temps on Monday will be in the mostly in the low to mid 40s and highs in the lower 70s.
1000 PM MDT Sat Apr 17 2021 At the beginning of the short term period, the CWA sees a westerly flow as a positively tilted upper air trough resides over the western CONUS.
(This evening through Sunday) Scattered light showers/sprinkles possible through mid-evening across northern into central Oklahoma as s/wv trough progresses eastward across Kansas. Amount of mid-level cloud cover will be tricky, with bands of clouds associated with mentioned s/wv trough across northern and central Oklahoma, and deformation band farther south and west.
A ridge over the West Coast is providing northerly flow over the Central Plains that continues to funnel cool air into Texas and eastern New Mexico keeping temps below normal through this week. Rain chances will continue for much of the Permian Basin and Big Bend through tomorrow due to lift from an upper level low sitting over Arizona, unfortunately any rainfall amounts will be light with few accumulations over a tenth of an inch.
A 500 hpa trof will continue to deepen tonight and transition into a cutoff low over AZ/NM tomorrow. Temperatures will be cold enough overnight for some snow to mix in over the higher terrain above 5000 ft. The 500 hpa cutoff low will open up into a shrtwv trof and pass over the region on Monday.
At the surface, a cold front front stretches across the Florida Peninsula westward into the central Gulf of Mexico. Upper level flow is generally zonal across the area with a positively tilted trough across the Desert Southwest. Lingering cloud cover from the passing upper level trough will hinder radiational cooling overnight. Due to these factors, overnight lows will be on the cool side again with lows in the low to mid 40s.
Some weak radar returns starting to show up in the north ahead of a cold front. The mentioned cold front could then bring precipitation from north to south later tonight through Sunday, with breezy winds expected behind the front.
This system will push a strong cold front south across western Kansas during the day Monday. Cold advection behind the front will result in steady or falling temperatures especially in the Highway 96/Interstate 70 corridor. As the lower levels continue to cool, the rain will change over to snow by late Monday evening.