Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
A strengthening upper level low in the Gulf of Mexico continues to churn and move eastward while advecting deep tropical moisture into the southern United States. The various numerical models depict this scenario of rain and thunderstorms arriving in the Lower Keys and nearshore waters over the next several hours, with periods of moderate to heavy rain and frequent cloud to ground lightning. High tides associated with the coming full moon will cause less clearance under low fixed bridges.
Rainfall across most areas earlier today have already dropped temperatures to the low to mid 70s, and these values should remain fairly steady through the rest of the night.
622 PM CDT Thu Sep 8 2022 High pressure over the region will bring another day of fair weather conditions to central Illinois Friday. Temperatures will start the day in the mid to upper 50s and will warm into the lower to mid 80s.
Cold front associated with the large upper trough over the northern plains will enter Yuma County by O6z tonight and continue to move south overnight, reaching a McCook to Goodland line by 12z. Low temperatures will drop into the mid to upper 50s behind the front, but remain in the low to mid 60s ahead of it. High temperatures will range from the lower 70s in northeast Colorado to the middle 80s in Graham and Gove counties of northwest Kansas.
755 PM CDT Thu Sep 8 2022 High pressure over the region will bring another day of fair weather conditions to central Illinois Friday. Temperatures will start the day in the mid to upper 50s and will warm into the lower to mid 80s.
Currently, upper level low located near the Hudson Bay with a long wave trough extending southwest into the Northern Rockies and Northern Plains region. Light showers continue from the Black Hills northeastward through southeastern North Dakota and into Minnesota, associated with right entrance region upper jet dynamics interacting with embedded waves rotating around the base of the trough.
1152 PM MDT Thu Sep 8 2022 Satellite imagery shows a few areas of scattered clouds favoring the high terrain of western Colorado and eastern Utah. Additionally, a quasi-linear band of clouds is oriented from central Utah through northwest Colorado and continues to move southeastward as a trough sags in from the north. Radar returns indicate isolated showers again favoring the high terrain. This will dampen the high pressure, pushing it to the south/west and allowing cooler temperatures associated with the trough to spill into the region starting this evening and tomorrow. While cooler, anticipated another day of above normal (by around 10 degrees) temperatures.
Given the resident dry airmass overhead and low level return flow, this equates to plenty of sunshine and seasonably warm temperatures for early September standards as high temperatures push into the low to mid 80s.
(Today and tonight) With a weakening tropical system over the northern Baja Peninsula, and an upper low spinning over the northern Gulf of Mexico, our area is left in between under a weakened upper level ridge. Highs will be in the low to mid 90s for the most part, but a few locations will be in the upper 90s as well, mainly in the Concho Valley and Big Country.
1132 PM EDT Thu Sep 8 2022 Seasonable temperature and a clearing sky are expected under building high pressure. Dry weather will persist under the building ridge of high pressure.
1111 PM CDT Thu Sep 8 2022 High pressure over the region will bring another day of fair weather conditions to central Illinois Friday. Temperatures will start the day in the mid to upper 50s and will warm into the lower to mid 80s.
223 AM CDT Fri Sep 9 2022 Frontal boundary has cleared the area, with low level cold/dry air advection across the CWA with elevated shower activity across central/north central South Dakota, in the vicininty of the 700mb trough, and there are still some convective elements in the warm advection wing of this feature lingering across the far southeast CWA. As the day progresses, the surface gradient will relax somewhat, and elvated precipitation will migrate south and east as the mid level trough sags southeast.
256 AM EDT Fri Sep 9 2022 High pressure will build into the region tonight and will bring dry conditions through most of the weekend.
Surface cold front still lingering near the MN/IA Highway 60 corridor very early this morning, and saw some stronger thunderstorms develop along the northern portions of this boundary, along and north of Highway 14, in the late evening/overnight. The increased clouds and rain chances, along with just an overall much cooler air mass, will hold temperatures well below seasonal normals today.
1153 PM EDT Thu Sep 8 2022 Clear sky and calm wind continue late tonight thanks to high pressure spanning Lower MI and southern Ontario. There has been some surface Td recovery into the lower and mid 50s since sunset which maintains potential for ground fog around sunrise, but with too little impact for inclusion in the forecast at this point. High pressure then remains in place and provides more clear sky during the day as surface wind settles into a south direction at 10 knots or less.
136 AM EDT Fri Sep 9 2022 Weak high pressure will build over the region on Friday, resulting in a dry day.
1224 AM CDT Fri Sep 9 2022 (This evening through Friday) The synoptic pattern continues to evolve into more of a progressive setup today, with a very broad area of deep upper level troughing descending through the Intermountain West acting to squash what remains of the upper ridge over the Great Basin. Despite these changes, at least some degree of weak upper ridging will remain over West Texas through the next 24 hours as our region becomes sandwiched between the hurricane to the west, the trough to the north, and a separate upper low to our east. Otherwise, another fairly warm and dry day is in store for Friday with temperatures reaching into the low to mid 90s.
156 AM CDT Fri Sep 9 2022 Current satellite water vapor imagery shows a healthy upper level trough axis moving slowly eastward across Montana/Wyoming early this morning. Scattered elevated showers/storms were occurring along and north of the surface cold front over western Nebraska/South Dakota. Cooler temperatures in the 50s and 60s were behind the cold front.
The primary concern will be for the high rain totals leading to areal and river flooding, with the highest chances of flooding rain along the Nature Coast and south to the Tampa Bay and Sun Coast.
Otherwise watching the closed low over LA slowly begin meandering to the north.
(Today and tonight) Friday will be another relatively quiet day, with a nearly stationary upper level cyclone positioned over the Gulf Coast, and relatively weak flow aloft through the region.
As for rain chances, they look best tnt and Friday morning as some upper energy transitions through the upper trof, helping to breakout post frontal showers. However, the highest deep layer shear remains displaced north of the effective frontal boundary thus suggesting little to no organization of storms. With cooler air overspreading the region this evening, expect the Red Flag Warning will be allowed to expire on time. This will be the result of a departing closed low and associated lower heights this weekend, and a subsequent building of an upper level ridge into the Northern Plains. By the middle of the week, the upper-level ridge axis may shift east of the forecast area, resulting in southwest flow aloft. There is the low potential for a brief period of MVFR VISBY with light rain showers however.
(Today and Tonight) Expect another day much similar to yesterday, with highs a degree or so warmer. An upper low is centered off the coast of LA, while an upper trough and its associated front will remain to our northwest today.
Temperatures will be cool once again this afternoon with highs only in the 60s for most locations, with 40s and 50s in the higher terrain. Tonight will be much cooler with low 40s common and temperatures well below freezing in the higher terrain. Areas around Harlowton and Livingston have a chance to reach freezing.
336 AM CDT Fri Sep 9 2022 Key Points: - Another warm day is in store today before the arrival of a cold front tonight.
(Today and tonight) Early morning water vapor imagery continues to show now Tropical Storm Kay over Baja California, an upper low over the Gulf Coast, an upper trough moving across the northwestern CONUS, and an area of high pressure squashed between the three of them over the Four Corners region. With upper heights similar to what we have seen in previous days, we should see highs in the low to mid-90s. This may help keep temperatures a little warmer than we have seen lately, but lows should still remain in the 60s for much of the region.
1257 AM EDT Fri Sep 9 2022 Seasonable temperature and a clearing sky are expected under building high pressure. Dry weather will persist under the building ridge of high pressure.
1020 PM MDT Thu Sep 8 2022 A broad trough covers the Pacific NW, producing showers and storms across WY/MT. As the cold front and stronger upper-level energy move into the region late this afternoon and evening, a few stronger thunderstorms will be possible. Significantly cooler air will settle into the region tonight and Friday: lows tonight will be in the 40s and lower 50s on the plains, with some 30s possible in the Black Hills.
1233 AM EDT Fri Sep 9 2022 High pressure will then prevail Friday through the weekend.
203 AM EDT Fri Sep 9 2022 High pressure will build into the region tonight and will bring dry conditions through most of the weekend.
1153 PM CDT Thu Sep 8 2022 Perfectly clear skies prevail across the Mid-South, at least until that cirrus shield from the upper low along the Gulf coast pushes into N MS in a couple of hours.
Discussion: In the upper levels, a closed low will remain nearly stationary near the LA/MS Coasts today and tonight bringing mid to upper level southerly flow and moisture advection. At the surface, high pressure will be over the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic bringing southeasterly low level flow to the Tennessee Valley.
Dew points in the mid 60s will fall through current values in our vallies by daybreak with lows in the low to mid-60s area wide.
625 AM CDT Fri Sep 9 2022 (Today and tonight) Early morning water vapor imagery continues to show now Tropical Storm Kay over Baja California, an upper low over the Gulf Coast, an upper trough moving across the northwestern CONUS, and an area of high pressure squashed between the three of them over the Four Corners region. With upper heights similar to what we have seen in previous days, we should see highs in the low to mid-90s. This may help keep temperatures a little warmer than we have seen lately, but lows should still remain in the 60s for much of the region.
Northwest winds will bring cooler temperatures and haze today to northern and portions of central Nevada. This will keep much cooler and drier conditions over northern Nevada. Increased afternoon RH values in both the low and mid levels are expected in Central Nevada tomorrow.
Resulting boundary collisions locally enhances the low level shear and can produce brief storm rotation.
521 AM EDT Fri Sep 9 2022 High pressure should maintain dry weather through Saturday.
448 AM CDT Fri Sep 9 2022 Summary: Much cooler with showers and isolated thunderstorms expected for the end of the week.
427 AM CDT Fri Sep 9 2022 The combination of a weak upper level ridge, increasing southerly surface flow and sunny skies today will allow temperatures to warm up near or just above seasonal norms. Meanwhile, an upper level trough over the Gulf Coast region will deepen and become cutoff.
Observed 850 temperatures this morning support high temperatures just a couple of degrees warmer than those seen yesterday, right in line with the current forecast.
Quigley (Today through Saturday) An upper level low over the Central Gulf Coast slowly opens up over the Lower Mississippi Valley as an upper level trough moves out of the Rockies into the Plains. Also, a thin upper level ridge extends from the southern Gulf of California to New Mexico with eastern Pacific Tropical Storm Kay to the west of Northern Baja California. Meanwhile, a southerly lower level flow gets reestablished over our area in response to the lowering surface pressures in the Plains ahead of the aforementioned upper level trough.
600 AM CDT Fri Sep 9 2022 (Today and Tonight) Expect another day much similar to yesterday, with highs a degree or so warmer. An upper low is centered off the coast of LA, while an upper trough and its associated front will remain to our northwest today.
632 AM CDT Fri Sep 9 2022 Summary: Much cooler with showers and isolated thunderstorms expected for the end of the week.
Aloft, a closed low is noted over the northern Gulf with a broad and deepening trough digging into MT and the Dakotas. As the northern trough moves southeastward through Saturday, the Gulf low will gradually shift north through the Lower Mississippi Valley and phase with the larger synoptic trough by Saturday afternoon.
Upper low centered over Louisiana lifts northward and weakens during the day Saturday. Lobes of vorticity rotating around the upper low works into the TN/OH Valley Saturday morning from the south sparking a wave of showers and a few embedded storms mainly during the morning.
602 AM CDT Fri Sep 9 2022 (Today and tonight) With a weakening tropical system over the northern Baja Peninsula, and an upper low spinning over the northern Gulf of Mexico, our area is left in between under a weakened upper level ridge. Highs will be in the low to mid 90s for the most part, but a few locations will be in the upper 90s as well, mainly in the Concho Valley and Big Country.
548 AM CDT Fri Sep 9 2022 (Today and tonight) Friday will be another relatively quiet day, with a nearly stationary upper level cyclone positioned over the Gulf Coast, and relatively weak flow aloft through the region. Overnight Friday night into Saturday, an upper level trough will begin to dig through the Central Plains. With this upper level trough, an associated surface cold front will begin to enter far northwestern Oklahoma late Friday night. Behind the cold front, there will be strong northerly winds and cooler temperatures, as well as increasing precipitation chances. Behind the cold front, lows will be primarily in the mid to low 60s, with 50s beginning to gradually move in behind the cold front.
Temperatures then begin to see widespread cooling late this weekend, as the stubborn ridge of high pressure aloft weakens and moves eastward. with a trough on its heels approaching the North Coast.
620 AM CDT Fri Sep 9 2022 Current satellite water vapor imagery shows a healthy upper level trough axis moving slowly eastward across Montana/Wyoming early this morning. Scattered elevated showers/storms were occurring along and north of the surface cold front over western Nebraska/South Dakota. Cooler temperatures in the 50s and 60s were behind the cold front. The cold front will shift southward into central Kansas later this afternoon, and bring scattered showers/storms to the area similar to what is now occurring north of Kansas for late tonight through Saturday night. Another day of hot temperatures will be in store for the area today, however noticeably cooler air will spread southward across Kansas for the weekend in the wake of the cold front.
Expect noticeably cooler temperatures and scattered showers and thunderstorms for this afternoon through Saturday.
An upper level low centered over the Lower MS Valley and a ridge to our west will continue to provide drier/sinking air into the region today. Highs will once again climb in the low to mid 90s. Upper-level ridge overhead will bring even drier conditions for Saturday with little to no precipitation.
The mountains and foothills have been trending cooler this morning but the valley is still slightly warmer as of 3 am.
Surface cold front still lingering near the MN/IA Highway 60 corridor very early this morning, and saw some stronger thunderstorms develop along the northern portions of this boundary, along and north of Highway 14, in the late evening/overnight. The increased clouds and rain chances, along with just an overall much cooler air mass, will hold temperatures well below seasonal normals today. Temperatures remain on the cooler side with upper trough still over the area should be able to reach upper 60s to lower 70s most areas.
619 AM CDT Fri Sep 9 2022 (Today through Saturday) An upper level low over the Central Gulf Coast slowly opens up over the Lower Mississippi Valley as an upper level trough moves out of the Rockies into the Plains. Also, a thin upper level ridge extends from the southern Gulf of California to New Mexico with eastern Pacific Tropical Storm Kay to the west of Northern Baja California. Meanwhile, a southerly lower level flow gets reestablished over our area in response to the lowering surface pressures in the Plains ahead of the aforementioned upper level trough.
626 AM CDT Fri Sep 9 2022 KEY MESSAGES: - Nearly all locations will see some rain today into at least Saturday as a cold front passes through.
Another warm and humid day is in store, with highs ranging from the low to mid 90s, and with heat index values ranging up to 105 degrees. Saturday should be drier as the mid-level low weakens and becomes absorbed by the next longwave trough to move east across the high plains.
931 AM EDT Fri Sep 9 2022 High pressure will remain over the area through Saturday, bringing us dry and warm weather during the days and foggy nights.
Otherwise watching the closed low over LA slowly begin meandering to the north. NAM/GFS/ECMWF appear to have a reinforcing moisture gradient, sort of pseudo-warm front rotating northwestward into west KY early Saturday morning. with most of the area in a fairly divergent/diffluent upper air pattern as the upper level low starts to open up and stretch north to south. Carried higher pops in the morning mainly over western Kentucky, and then by around noontime that gradient moves into southeast Missouri and stalls briefly as it moves up under the upper trough axis.
713 AM EDT Fri Sep 9 2022 High pressure will remain over the area through Saturday, bringing us dry and warm weather during the days and foggy nights.
(Today through Saturday afternoon) West Texas and Southeast New Mexico are in between an upper low in the Gulf of Mexico and Tropical Storm Kay just south of California. An upper trough will deepen over the Central and Northern Plains on Saturday. This will send a cold front southward toward the area. Surface winds will become easterly on Saturday in advance of the cold front. This will result in temperatures on Saturday a few degrees cooler than the previous day.
Today will be seasonably hot with highs in the low 90s, light southeast winds, and mostly sunny skies. Bonnette Previous Discussion: /Friday and Saturday/ The next couple days should be seasonably warm with little to no chance of rain as an upper-level ridge builds overhead. The ridge is in response to Tropical Storm Kay stalling near SoCal and an upper low lingering over the Southeastern Gulf Coast. Temperatures are already (as of midnight) near/below yesterday morning's lows, so expect a slightly cooler start to the day today. Similar weather is expected Saturday with daytime highs in the low to mid 90s.
Currently, upper level low located near the Hudson Bay with a long wave trough extending southwest into the Northern Rockies and Northern Plains region. Light showers continue from the Black Hills northeastward through southeastern North Dakota and into Minnesota, associated with right entrance region upper jet dynamics interacting with embedded waves rotating around the base of the trough. Highs today will mainly range in the 60s with a steady northwest sfc wind ahead of the incoming high pressure. Saturday looks dry and clear, with perhaps a tad warmer temperatures compared to today with some mid level return flow starting up.
The high afternoon rain chances will begin to taper off over the weekend, as the low pressure spinning to our SE finally gets pushed out of the region. However, as this low pressure begins to retrograde, these rain chances should increase west into Saturday. As for temperatures, afternoon highs both today and tomorrow will range in the low-90s, where lows tonight will drop into the mid-60s to low-70s. /44/ (Saturday Night through Friday) As we transition into Saturday Night, kept slight chance pops going across our eastern half due to the increased pop coverage earlier in the day which may take a few hours beyond 00z to dissipate due to the vicinity of an upper level trough across the Lower Miss Valley.
947 AM EDT Fri Sep 9 2022 A large area of high pressure at the surface and aloft over the northeast U.
East to northeast winds have increased overnight and this morning across western Montana, as a Canadian cold front slides south along the Continental Divide. The front is also bringing cooler temperatures and precipitation along the divide. Temperatures today will be much cooler than previous weeks, especially in western Montana. Afternoon highs will likely run 5 to 10 degrees cooler than normal for this time of the year. However, temperatures will be cooler than the past few days, but still quite warmer than your neighbors to the east. As the cooler airmass settles in overnight, and the winds calm and skies clear, temperatures are expected to cool off rapidly. The high valleys along the Continental Divide, east of Highway 93 are likely to drop into the upper 20s by Saturday morning.
603 AM MDT Fri Sep 9 2022 The focus in the short term portion of the forecast is on the much cooler temperatures and the possibility of rain showers and a few thunderstorms across the area from this evening through Saturday evening. A cold front moved across the central High Plain early this morning with gusty north winds, increasing cloud cover and cooler temperatures moving in behind the front expected through the day today.
739 AM EDT Fri Sep 9 2022 High pressure should maintain dry weather through Saturday.
543 AM CDT Fri Sep 9 2022 (Today through Saturday) A ridge of high pressure across the Four Corners strengthens into the weekend as a mid level low slowly digs out of the northern Gulf of Mexico.
Dewpoints will also be on the rise, especially Saturday, resulting in slightly warmer overnight lows in the low 60s.
* Strong cold front is expected Friday night-Saturday morning.
Se Mi will remain under the influence of large high pressure across the eastern Great Lakes and New England today. Given the resident dry airmass overhead and low level return flow, this equates to plenty of sunshine and seasonably warm temperatures for early September standards as high temperatures push into the low to mid 80s. This cloud cover in tandem with ongoing advection of a warmer, humid airmass into the Great Lakes keeps overnight lows in the 60s. Slightly more humid day thus in store for Saturday as Gulf moisture advects northward and dewpoints push into the 60s, with temperatures once again in the low to mid 80s.
East to northeast winds have increased overnight and this morning across western Montana, as a Canadian cold front slides south along the Continental Divide. The front is also bringing cooler temperatures and precipitation along the divide. Temperatures today will be much cooler than previous weeks, especially in western Montana. Afternoon highs will likely run 5 to 10 degrees cooler than normal for this time of the year. However, temperatures will be cooler than the past few days, but still quite warmer than your neighbors to the east. As the cooler airmass settles in overnight, and the winds calm and skies clear. The high valleys along the Continental Divide, east of Highway 93 are likely to drop into the upper 20s by Saturday morning.
627 AM CDT Fri Sep 9 2022 The combination of a weak upper level ridge, increasing southerly surface flow and sunny skies today will allow temperatures to warm up near or just above seasonal norms. Meanwhile, an upper level trough over the Gulf Coast region will deepen and become cutoff.