Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH OVER THE AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN/EXTENDED SOUTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL NC OVERNIGHT. AND MAINTAIN A DRY AIR MASS IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. MIN TEMP SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S-AROUND 40 NORTH TO THE LOWER 40S SW. LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOW 40S. AND UPPER LEVEL LOW MEANDERING OVER THE GULF COAST STATES COULD ADVECT IN ENOUGH MOISTURE ALOFT TO GENERATE SOME CLOUDS. THE ANCHORING OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN FEATURES CLOSED LOWS OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AND THE WRN ATLANTIC WITH AN ANTICYCLONE INITIALLY OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY/MID-SOUTH.
324 AM EDT WED APR 13 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
ONSHORE GRADIENTS HAVE INCREASED AND THIS WILL RESULT IN SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL PUSH INTO OREGON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND DEEPEN OVER THE GREAT BASIN THURSDAY NIGHT.
351 AM CDT WED APR 13 2016 An upper low now moving NE toward southern OK early this morning with subsidence overspreading the region in its wake.
THEREFORE ONLY SMALL QPF TOTALS WILL BE IN THE FORECAST AS THE UPPER LOW SWINGS THROUGH THE STATE.
THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT BROAD AND WEAK UPPER RIDGING CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. WHILE WARM FRONT PUSHES ACROSS SD WITH LOW- LEVEL TROUGH. EXCEPT FOR SOME CUMULUS FORMING OFF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. UPPER RIDGE WILL PASS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY. LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 40S.
WHILE A LARGE AND STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES CLOSER TO THE COAST. THIS COMPLEX UPPER LOW WAS CENTERED NEAR 140W AND EXTENDED FROM AROUND 40N TO 60N. THIS LOW WILL MOVE RAPIDLY SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. AS THE LARGE UPPER LOW APPROACHES. THE HIGHEST SOUTHWEST-FACING PEAKS WILL SEE NEAR AN INCH OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT.
1037 PM PDT TUE APR 12 2016 Light showers will push across the Inland Northwest overnight into Wednesday morning as the next in a series of cold fronts moves in.
133 AM EDT WED APR 13 2016 HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR LAKE HURON WILL BUILD TO QUEBEC BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED NEAR LAKE HURON WILL CONTINUE A SLOW EASTWARD MOVEMENT THROUGH THE NIGHT. COOL NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE OFF LAKE ERIE AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD IN QUICKLY ON THURSDAY WITH A WARMING TREND GETTING UNDERWAY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
348 AM EDT WED APR 13 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRAVEL FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE ATLANTIC COAST BY THE WEEKEND. DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST AS THE HIGH MOVES SLOWLY EAST. THE CIRCULATION AROUND THE HIGH WILL ALSO BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES. A VERY DRY AIRMASS CIRCULATING AROUND THE HIGH WILL PROVIDE SUNNY SKIES.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH OVER THE AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. HIGH PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC EXTENDS DOWN INTO THE AREA TODAY AS NORTHEASTERLY FLOW BRINGS IN SOME DRIER AIR FROM THE NORTH. EXPECT A COOL BUT PLEASANT DAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL HOLD STEADY OVER THE EASTERN CONUS.
HAVE INTRODUCED 20 POPS ACROSS EASTERN ARKANSAS AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON. WILL CARRY LIKELY POPS FOR THESE AREAS WITH CHANCE POPS ELSEWHERE AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE MIDSOUTH. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MEANDER OVER THE MIDSOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW BECOMES TRAPPED UNDERNEATH A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE.
HOWEVER, WITH A RIDGE TO OUR NORTH AND THE UPPER LOW TO OUR WEST IN A SEMI/WEAK REX BLOCK PATTERN WE WILL SEE SOME INCREASED E/SE FLOW AROUND THE 850MB LEVEL AND MAY ADVECT SOME MOISTURE FROM THE ATLANTIC AND OFF OF THE STORMS TO OUR SOUTH INTO THE REGION. WITH THE CLOSED LOW SETTING UP TO OUR WEST, WE SHOULD BE IN AN AREA OF UVV AND WHEN COMBINED WITH THE SOMEWHAT LIMITED MOISTURE STREAMING INTO THE TN VALLEY, SCATTERED SHOWERS WOULD BE THE RESULT.
OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN AND RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK AND WEEKEND.
644 AM EDT WED APR 13 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRAVEL FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE ATLANTIC COAST BY THE WEEKEND. DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST AS THE HIGH MOVES SLOWLY EAST. THE CIRCULATION AROUND THE HIGH WILL ALSO BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES. A VERY DRY AIRMASS CIRCULATING AROUND THE HIGH WILL PROVIDE SUNNY SKIES.
141 AM EDT WED APR 13 2016 HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BRING DRY WEATHER AND A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
At the surface, the stalling cold front will be located just south and southeast of the region.
HARD TO SAY HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD TODAY AS MOST OF THE MODELS INDICATE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHEAST MEXICO AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY TODAY WHICH ALLOWS WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST. THE OTHER CHALLENGE IS THE EROSION OF THE CAP ACROSS THE LOWER AND MIDDLE TX COAST.
/ISSUED 727 PM EDT TUE APR 12 2016/ VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA.
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVER WESTERN NY AND SOUTHERN ONTARIO THIS MORNING. WITH THE TROUGH AXIS CLEARING THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. AND DOMINATING SUBSIDENCE IN THE LARGE SCALE RIDGING. TONIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BELOW FREEZING AGAIN. AS STEADFAST CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE LOCKED IN PLACE OVER THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY. AS MILDER AIR OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL GRADUALLY BUILD TO THE EAST WITHIN AN AMPLIFYING MID LEVEL RIDGE.
628 AM EDT WED APR 13 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION AND TAKE CHARGE. THAT SUBSIDENCE INVERSION IS A RESULT OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THE CENTER OF THIS HIGH WILL HEAD ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC TODAY. BUT WARMER DAYS ARE AHEAD. FROM SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER QUEBEC.
THIS WILL DISPLACE THE PREVAILING HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS AND BRING AN EVOLVING WEATHER PATTERN MORE FAVORABLE FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ON THU.
OVERHEAD TROUGHING IS BEGINNING TO SUCCUMB. AND WILL RAPIDLY BE REPLACED BY MID LEVEL RIDGING HEADING THROUGH TONIGHT. ONE LAST EMBEDDED WAVE WITHIN THIS DEPARTING TROUGH AXIS ROTATING ACROSS THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING. MOSTLY OF THE HIGH AND MID BASED VARIETY. BUT HIGHS TODAY PUSHING WELL INTO THE 40S IS SIMPLY A PRELUDE OF THE MUCH WARMER WEATHER YET TO COME. COMBINE THIS WITH A WARMER START TO THE EVENING. AND LOWS WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN THOSE OCCURRING NOW. HIGH PRESSURE/RIDGING FINALLY BRINGS MILDER AIR INTO THE REGION.
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE GULF STATES WILL LIFT NORTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON.
High pressure centered over Quebec and ridging well southwest into the Ohio and Mississippi Valleys will provide us with dry and pleasant weather today and tonight. By Thursday an upper low will be located over Arkansas. The GFS has been very consistent with the placement of this low over the last several model runs. A weak surface trof will also be in place, poking northeastward from the lower Mississippi Valley to the upper Ohio Valley.
315 AM EDT WED APR 13 2016 HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR NORTH AND NORTHEAST. TONIGHT SHOULD BE WARMER THAN LOWS EARLY THIS MORNING. BUT STILL COULD BE FLIRTING WITH POTENTIAL FROST ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA WITH TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S.
317 AM CDT WED APR 13 2016 08z/3am surface analysis shows ridge of high pressure extending from the eastern Great Lakes to the southern Plains. Beneath the ridge, skies are mostly clear and winds are light across central Illinois with current temperatures mainly in the middle to upper 30s. Abundant sunshine and light E/NE winds will be the rule today as the ridge remains firmly in place. As upper ridging builds over the Midwest, temperatures will continue to slowly climb through the end of the week.
THIS HIGH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON ITS TRACK EASTWARD AND FARTHER AWAY FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY THROUGHOUT THE DAY. CONTINUED CLEAR CONDITIONS AND GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS NEAR THE SURFACE WILL PROMOTE ANOTHER GOOD RIDGE VALLEY SPLIT IN TEMPERATURES. GIVEN THE WARMER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES TODAY COMPARED TO THAT OF YESTERDAY. THIS SHOULD KEEP NIGHTTIME TEMP- FALLS FROM DROPPING BELOW FREEZING. WHILE MUCH OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN IN AN OVERALL SUBTLE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING PATTERN. WE CONTINUE TO MONITOR A STRONG CLOSED LOW WHICH WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS LOW WILL VERY SLOWLY EDGE FURTHER EASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY THURSDAY AS WELL. THE TRACK OF THIS LOW IS SLIGHTLY FARTHER NORTH THAN PREVIOUS DAY RUNS.
SCATTERED SHOWERS TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS AN AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
341 AM EDT WED APR 13 2016 THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS IS PARTLY DUE TO THE NAM MOVES THE UPPER LOW A LITTLE FARTHER EAST THAN THE GFS/EUROPEAN. THIS WILL AID FOR A COOLER AIRMASS ACROSS THE AREA AND PROVIDE AN OVERRUNNING SURFACE FOR LIGHT PRECIP ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
SHORT-RANGE MODELS NOT INDICATING MUCH ACTIVITY AFTER THIS INITIAL LINE BY THE AFTN HRS BUT THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE MAIN UPPER TROF SEEMS TO BE ON THE SLOW SIDE.
WEAK RETURN FLOW IN CONCERT WITH AN UPPER LOW MEANDERING OVER OKLAHOMA WILL SUPPORT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TODAY ACROSS MAINLY SOUTH- CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER NEAR THE KS/OK BORDER ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW. AS A DEEP WESTERN CONUS TROUGH TAKES SHAPE.
618 AM EDT WED APR 13 2016 HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BRING DRY WEATHER AND A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
148 AM EDT WED APR 13 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION AND TAKE CHARGE. THAT SUBSIDENCE INVERSION IS A RESULT OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THE CENTER OF THIS HIGH WILL HEAD ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC TODAY. BUT WARMER DAYS ARE AHEAD. STACKED HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES SOLIDLY ESTABLISHED WITH THICKNESS VALUES TRENDING UPWARD DURING THIS PERIOD AS WE REMAIN ON THE GOOD SIDE OF THE OMEGA BLOCKING SITUATION.
THE INITIAL POSITION OF THE LOW MENTIONED ABOVE IS FURTHER NORTH THAN THE 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE LOCATION. THE UPPER LOW OVER TEXAS WILL MOVE OUT TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY. MEANWHILE THE TROUGH IN THE EAST WILL OUTPACE THE UPPER LOW LEAVING A CUTOFF LOW OVER THE ARKLATEX THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
352 AM CDT WED APR 13 2016 AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL QUICKLY BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. THIS RIDGE. HI-RES MODELS SHOW ONLY THE MOBRIDGE AREA WILL SEE PCPN. BUT WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS THANKS TO AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
AS A SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND BLOCKING PATTERN ALOFT RESULTS IN CONTINUED WEATHER AND A DAY TO DAY MODERATION OF THE AIRMASS. CONTINUED AIRMASS WARMING/MODIFICATION BACKS MINS NEAR TO THE HIGH SIDE OF MODEL GUIDANCE FROM THE UPPER 30S EAST TO LOWER 40S SOUTH AND WEST UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL TRANSITION TO A BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL US THURSDAY. THEN THE PATTERN WILL STAGNATE AS THE TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST DIVES INTO THE SOUTHWEST AND CUTS OFF.
WITH THE DRY LOW LEVEL AIR/SURFACE RIDGING IN PLACE. AS AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPS.
139 AM EDT WED APR 13 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD ACROSS EASTERN CANADA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
WELCOME BACK SPRING AS HIGH PRESSURE TAKES OVER FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK AND MUCH WARMER AIR RETURNS.
Warm April sun will continue modify the airmass associated with this high.
THE SHORT WAVE THAT IS RESPONSIBLE WILL PUSH EAST OF THE AREA DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY WITH RAIN CHANCES DECREASING FROM WEST TO EAST, HOWEVER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORM CAN STILL BE EXPECTED OVER LOWER ACADIANA THROUGH THURSDAY AS THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES EAST AND MOISTURE CONTINUES TO WRAP INTO A SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW OVER AR.
PLUS WITH THE WARMER START THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED AND THE GOOD MIXING.
The low is forecast to slow its forward movement Thursday in response to a building mid/upper ridge to its northeast. This feature, which will be centered over the mid/deep South, is progged to induce an inverted surface trof across our area early Thursday, helping to focus convection over the southern half of the region in the form of light showers. The lapse rates associated with the low may even make a few lightning strikes possible Thursday afternoon across mainly southeastern MO and western KY. The low will begin to fill Thursday night as it slowly rolls eastward. There are some model indications (NAM/ECMWF) that the better low level focus (and pcpn chances) associated the inverted trof may migrate westward more toward southeastern MO Thursday night.
149 AM EDT WED APR 13 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. OVER THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY WHERE THE GROWING SEASON HAS OFFICIALLY BEGUN. AREAS OF FROST LOOK LIKELY AS TEMPS BOTTOM OUT NEAR FREEZING. ISOLATED AREAS MAY HIT FREEZING DOWN THERE. HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH WILL KEEP US DRY. HOWEVER A WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DROP DOWN OUT OF THE GR LAKES WHICH MAY BRING MORE IN THE WAY OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS THAN CURRENTLY INDICATED IN THE MODEL OUTPUT.
THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL SEVERE STORMS SHOULD BE GETTING CLOSE TO ZERO AS THE LOW LEVEL NORTHERLY WIND FLOW CONTINUES TO DEEPEN. LATE AFTERNOON MIXING SHOULD CLEAR OUT A LOT OF THE LOWER CLOUDS WITH PATCHY FOG LIKELY TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT.
217 AM EDT WED APR 13 2016 A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT.
Higher elevation valleys like Georgetown Lake, Anaconda, and Butte are looking favorable for seeing snow this morning as cooler air moves in with the moisture. Ground temperatures are still above freezing for most locations, but the expected moderate to heavy snow rates may be able to overcome this for a few hours this morning, leading to snow covered surfaces. It will be cooler again today, with highs decreasing 5 to 10 degrees from yesterday.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD SLOWLY EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT AND WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY BECOME WARMER THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
/ISSUED 341 AM EDT WED APR 13 2016/ THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS IS PARTLY DUE TO THE NAM MOVES THE UPPER LOW A LITTLE FARTHER EAST THAN THE GFS/EUROPEAN. THIS WILL AID FOR A COOLER AIRMASS ACROSS THE AREA AND PROVIDE AN OVERRUNNING SURFACE FOR LIGHT PRECIP ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
A RIDGE WAS OVER MT/WY AND WAS MOVING E. SVRL DEGS WARMER THAN YESTERDAY WITH MUCH LESS WIND. MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EXTENDING INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT FROM THE SW. WHILE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE GRADUALLY SLIDES INTO THE ERN GULF COAST STATES. AND A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE PAC NW. AND INCREASE IN SPEED ON THURSDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP AHEAD OF DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL/NRN HIGH PLAINS. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW STILL WELL OFF TO THE WEST.
639 AM EDT WED APR 13 2016 HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR NORTH AND NORTHEAST. TONIGHT SHOULD BE WARMER THAN CURRENT MORNING LOWS. BUT STILL COULD BE FLIRTING WITH POTENTIAL FROST ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA WITH TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S.
A RIDGE WAS OVER MT/WY AND WAS MOVING E. SVRL DEGS WARMER THAN YESTERDAY WITH MUCH LESS WIND.
For today occasional mid to high level cloud cover, especially over south central Kansas, can be expected as an upper level trough crosses Oklahoma. Across south central Kansas highs only around 70 are expected given more afternoon cloud cover and cooler 900mb to 850mb temperatures at 00z Thursday. The southerly winds today and tonight will draw more humid air in the lower levels back into western Kansas. On Thursday stratus in north central and south central Kansas will erode during the early morning hours as a trough of low pressure at the surface deepens near the Colorado border.
THE AREA CONTINUES TO REMAIN WINDY WITH GUSTS 25-35 MPH DUE TO STRONG RIDGE TO OUR EAST AND LEE-SIDE TROUGH TO THE WEST OVER THE FRONT RANGE. UPPER RIDGE EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES LATE TONIGHT GOING INTO WEDNESDAY PROVIDING AREA ANOTHER PERIOD OF DRY CONDITIONS. WITH WEDNESDAY HIGHS REACHING WELL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER AREA. EXPECTING GUSTY CONDITIONS(25-35 MPH) TO PERSIST INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS BEFORE TAPERING OFF AS LEE-SIDE TROUGH MOVES OFF THE FRONT RANGE. HAVE CONTINUED MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR RW/TRW FOR WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR COLORADO THRU SUNSET TO ACCT FOR DIURNAL HEATING AFFECTING THE CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS ASSOCIATED WITH TROUGH OVER CENTRAL COLORADO. THE PRIMARY FOCUS IS THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION.
HIGH PRESSURE HAS SETTLED OVER THE FORECAST AREA BUILDING SOUTH FROM THE GREAT LAKES. SHELTERED VALLEYS WERE A FEW DEGREES COOLER MAINLY NEAR THE KY BORDER AND ACROSS PARTS OF NE TN AND SW VA EARLY THIS MORNING. AN INVERTED TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO FORM ACROSS THE EASTERN TN VALLEY AND BRING IN MORE MOISTURE FROM THE GULF WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR A CHANCE OF A LITTLE RAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN PLATEAU AND EXTREME SOUTHERN VALLEY BY 12Z THURSDAY MORNING. LOWS WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THURSDAY FROM NEAR 40 COLDER SPOTS NE TN AND SW VA TO NEAR 50 SOUTHEAST PLATEAU AND CHA AREA WHERE THERE IS INCREASED CLOUD COVER.
TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT UPPER RIDGING HAS NOW SHIFTED INTO THE NCNTRL CONUS WITH THE MAIN AXIS ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. AN OFFSHORE DEEP UPPER LOW IS APPROACHING THE PAC NW. THERMAL RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION WILL BRING ANOTHER DAY OF WARM TEMPS WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOW 80S. THESE STORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING OVERNIGHT AS A WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHES IN. BUT CANT RULE OUT A COUPLE STRONGER STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS ESPECIALLY BEHIND THE FIRST TROUGH/DRYLINE. SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL QUICKLY RETURN THE WARMER AIRMASS BACK ACROSS THE WRN SD PLAINS. AS THE LOW CROSSES THE CWA.
441 AM CDT WED APR 13 2016 UPPER LOW MOVG SLOWLY EAST ALONG RED RIVER VALLEY OF OK/TX.
218 AM MDT WED APR 13 2016 FORECAST CHALLENGES DEAL WITH RAIN ONSET LATER THIS WEEK AS A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. GULF OF ALASKA SHOWING OUR LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM RIGHT AROUND 47N 150W. PRETTY EXTENSIVE BAND OF MOISTURE OUT AHEAD OF THIS LOW PUSHING INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA NEAR KSFO THIS MORNING. COULD BE SEEING SNOW IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS AS EARLY AS THIS TIME.
221 AM CDT WED APR 13 2016 Upper low in the southern stream currently over NW TX will move over the forecast area today. will develop later this morning as the upper low moves overhead. The GFS and ECMWF have come into better agreement with the details regarding the western CONUS upper low this weekend.
340 AM CDT WED APR 13 2016 (Today and Tonight) A compact upper low is currently over the southeast Texas Panhandle this morning and will track east across Oklahoma during the day. Temperatures will be warmer today, with highs ranging from the upper 60s across the Big Country, to the lower 70s elsewhere. Expect light southeast winds tonight, with overnight lows in the lower 50s.
318 AM EDT WED APR 13 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION AND TAKE CHARGE. THAT SUBSIDENCE INVERSION IS A RESULT OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THE CENTER OF THIS HIGH WILL HEAD ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC TODAY. BUT WARMER DAYS ARE AHEAD. FROM SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER QUEBEC.
BRINGING THE LOW THROUGH PIECEMEAL. HOLDING THE TROF/LOW TOGETHER ACROSS THE CWA. THE COLD FRONT APPEARS TO HOLD OFF CROSSING THE REGION FOR MUCH LONGER THAN WAS PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR WARMER TEMPS THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.
STILL MAY SEE SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE COAST AND THE UPPER LOW SHEARING OUT AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
121 AM EDT WED APR 13 2016 HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR NORTH AND NORTHEAST. TONIGHT SHOULD BE WARMER THAN LOWS EARLY THIS MORNING. BUT STILL COULD BE FLIRTING WITH POTENTIAL FROST ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA WITH TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
a cold front will slide across the region later today. with mid level cyclogenesis forecast over the central High Plains Monday night as the system emerges from the higher terrain of the Rockies.
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ON THE I295K SURFACE MATCHES WELL WITH THE LOW CIGS CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG REPORTED GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE BALCONES ESCARPMENT THIS MORNING. THE DIURNAL WEAKENING OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET AND MIXING SHOULD ELIMINATE THE FOG BY 16Z AND THIN CLOUDS BY 18Z.
946 AM EST SUN JAN 31 2016 WARMER AIR WILL BE MOVING INTO THE REGION TODAY ON SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS. THE WARMTH WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY WHEN A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY.
946 AM EST SUN JAN 31 2016 HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL EXTEND INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TODAY. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE NEAR OR INTO THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND BECOME DIFFUSE.
OTHERWISE THE LOWER CLOUDS HAVE BEEN APPROACHING THE CANADIAN BORDER JUST NORTH OF PEMBINA AND EXTEND OVER INTO THE LAKE OF THE WOODS REGION. MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE SOME SUN AGAIN TODAY ALTHOUGH TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER. WHERE THE LOW CLOUDS ARE SUPPOSED TO MOVE INTO. THIS FA SHOULD REMAIN UNDER WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY CONDITIONS. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP TEMPS ON THE COOLER SIDE THROUGH LATE WEEK. WITH THE LOWER CLOUDS OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA APPROACHING THE CANADIAN BORDER NOW. MODELS NOT HANDLING THIS SITUATION THAT WELL BUT IT DOES SEEM LIKE THE LOWER CLOUDS SHOULD GET INTO AT LEAST THE KGFK/KTVF AND KBJI AREAS BY MID TO LATE MORNING AND SHOULD HOLD ABOUT THERE THRU THE DAY.
Given the low-level wind fields, wouldn't be surprised to see a few gusts over 40 mph, but nothing persistent enough to merit a Wind Advisory. Skies will remain mostly cloudy as a weak bubble of high pressure tries to nose in from the north, so temps will be substantially cooler but still above normal.
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE REGION AT THIS TIME WITH WEAK NORTHERLY FLOW IN A COLD AIR MASS. SHOWERS CONTINUE OF THE RELATIVELY WARM WATERS IN THIS PATTERN BUT HAVE BECOME VERY ISOLATED INLAND EXCEPT FOR A SMALL SHORT WAVE THAT IS SWINGING UP THROUGH MODOC COUNTY INTO LAKE AND EASTERN KLAMATH COUNTY ON THE FRONT SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. A WEAK SYSTEM SLIDES DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH THAT SLOWLY BUILDS IN BEHIND THE EXITING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH 850 MB TEMPS IN THE -27 TO -30 C RANGE. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
627 AM EST SUN JAN 31 2016 HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL EXTEND INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TODAY. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE NEAR OR INTO THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND BECOME DIFFUSE.
THEREFORE SOME OF THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE WHERE A FOOT OR MORE OF SNOW IS LIKELY.
DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE HAS INCREASED SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PROGRESSES EASTWARD THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE EASTERLY FLOW HAS BROUGHT IN A MUCH WARMER AND HUMID AIR MASS. SHORT TERM UPDATE - THE RIDGE AXIS WILL HOLD TO OUR NORTH. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE MIGRATING EASTWARD TOWARDS FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT TO GENTLE EAST TO SOUTHEAST BREEZES WILL PREVAIL ON KEYS WATERS THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.
AFTER THAT WE EXPECT THE FOG TO DISSIPATE UNDER THE UPPER TROUGH THAT IS NOW OVER THE WRN STATES.
/ISSUED 324 AM EST SUN JAN 31 2016/ LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND PRODUCING A MOIST.
Cold front associated with these waves was through the western half of the CWA at 09Z.