Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
425 PM MDT Thu Jul 9 2020 A ridge over the area today brought fairly quiet weather throughout the area today. The next few days will switch back and forth between sunny an warm upper level ridging with brief bouts of instability. HREF has updraft helicity values increasing from Phillips county before noon and there is plenty of CAPE values for thunderstorms, but it will just depend on having the lifting mechanisms to progress rain showers into thunderstorms (higher terrain or the progression of the trough).
638 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 2020 Heat continues Friday with a cold front arriving Friday night, bringing showers and thunderstorms to the area. Afternoon diurnal cumulus field is in full swing today, with a few showers and thunderstorms sprouting across the higher terrain and portions of southeast Ohio. Once this feature migrates further northward, a surface cold front will swing into the Ohio Valley and encroach on the western perimeter of the CWA by Friday afternoon. This will be in part to additional cloud coverage moving in with the upper level trough accompanying the surface front and the arrival of rain.
As the upper ridge over the Desert Southwest builds east, this will limit convection moreso to the eastern part of the forecast area Friday. For Friday, the best potential for this will be in the west as the east may see convection and potential for another MCS to round the top of the ridge and affect the east(or perhaps this occurs further into Alabama than Mississippi).
1032 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 2020 Currently - A low pressure system near the Carolina Coast reaches southward into the Florida Peninsula, resulting in a split surface through lower level ridge across our area. Some lower level drier is is wrapping around the Gulf portion of the ridge into our area. Short Term Update - Surface winds will remain light due to the nearby col, however a light westerly flow should develop across most areas as the trough pushes a bit further south. The weak flow and the drier air through the low levels will help to keep convective activity down. Overnight lows will be in the lower to mid 80s with dew points holding in the mid 70s. A trough pushing a bit further down into Florida will result in a prdominately light westerly flow by morning.
Afternoon satellite reflects cloud conditions in line with trough passage occurring with mid to high level shield of clouds working its way across the Cascades and Columbia Basin while a cumulus field grows in most areas outside of the Basin. Tomorrow to be pleasant under a quick ridge with warm parts of Basin touching 90/mountains near 70 and light winds.
812 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 2020 Hot and humid conditions with spotty thunderstorms will persist until a weak cold front moves through the region Friday, bringing a greater chance for storms. With the short wave expected to push across the region on Friday, precipitation coverage will become more widespread especially after 15-16z as instability increases ahead of the weak cold front.
930 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 2020 Heat continues Friday with a cold front arriving Friday night, bringing showers and thunderstorms to the area. Afternoon diurnal cumulus field is in full swing today, with a few showers and thunderstorms sprouting across the higher terrain and portions of southeast Ohio. Once this feature migrates further northward, a surface cold front will swing into the Ohio Valley and encroach on the western perimeter of the CWA by Friday afternoon. This will be in part to additional cloud coverage moving in with the upper level trough accompanying the surface front and the arrival of rain.
A cold front will increase rain chance for the weekend, but will cool temperature back to seasonable levels. Further encroachment of the aforementioned trough will support higher precipitation probabilities on Friday in continued warmth and humidity. Scattered thunderstorms are expected during the afternoon, becoming widespread Friday evening as the trough axis treks across the region.
/issued 306 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2020/ (Tonight and Friday) An upper level ridge of high pressure will continue to strengthen over New Mexico and build across Texas through tomorrow. The low levels will be fairly moist again tomorrow, with afternoon dewpoints again in the mid and upper 60s for much of the area. The 850 mb thermal ridge will also be a little stronger tomorrow, resulting in slightly higher temperatures, with highs 99 to 106.
620 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2020 Message of the Day: Slightly cooler temperatures are expected for most of the area today. Everywhere else can expect temperatures in the mid 80s to about 90 degrees, with heat indices in the low to mid 90s. There will be an uptick in temperatures again though, with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s and heat indices in the low to upper 90s.
521 PM MDT Thu Jul 9 2020 An upper ridge will continue to build over the area from the west this afternoon. At the surface, a weak trof extends from northeastern South Dakota in southwester SD. The high dewpoints and temperatures in the 90s will lead to moderate to strong instability developing during the afternoon.
1001 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 2020 Hot and humid conditions with spotty thunderstorms will persist until a weak cold front moves through the region Friday, bringing a greater chance for storms. With the short wave expected to push across the region on Friday, precipitation coverage will become more widespread especially after 15-16z as instability increases ahead of the weak cold front.
/issued 204 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2020/ The upper ridge responsible for bringing the hot wx to the region was centered over NM this morning.
Tonight, as rains come to an end and skies clear, an upper trough continues to deepen as it moves to the east from the southern Minnesota/Wisconsin border. This cold front is expected to reach the Lower Ohio River Valley tomorrow morning. Tomorrow, the day begins with precipitation chances increasing from the northwest ahead of the advancing cold front.
737 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 2020 Hot and humid conditions with spotty thunderstorms will persist until a weak cold front moves through the region Friday, bringing a greater chance for storms.
Temperatures as of 1 pm are generally running about 2 to 5 degrees warmer than this time yesterday in the Sacramento Valley with readings in the 90s. An upper level ridge in the Desert Southwest will build and nudge westward through the weekend, resulting in a warming and drying trend throughout much of the Golden State.
Weak cold front has generated sprinkles or virga in eastern Oregon this evening.
As Fay moves out of the area, a low pressure system propagates in from the Great Lakes Region bringing more unsettled weather for the weekend. As Fay exits to the north into Canada, a 500 mb trough digs into the Great Lakes region. As the trough moves in, steepening lapes rates aloft will prime the atmosphere for another day of afternoon showers and thunderstorms on Saturday. A trough will slide into NY/PA during the short term period and import cooler temperatures into the upper atmosphere. Combined with warm temperatures at the surface on Saturday, the trough will generate unstable conditions with EHI values between 1.
1150 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2020 Mid to upper level ridging will continue to dominate the local weather pattern and result in fair weather conditions across Southeast Texas tonight. Cloudy skies are expected to re-develop overnight, which will keep the lows in the upper 70s and low 80s (see Climate discussion for more information). Mid to upper level ridging will continue to result in fair wx across the CWA.
318 AM CDT Fri Jul 10 2020 Friday should be a beautiful day! A weak upper level ridge should move over the Northland today bringing sunny skies, warm temperatures (mid 70s to low 80s), and higher humidity (dewpoint in the 50s and 60s).
As the upper ridge over the Desert Southwest begins to edge east this weekend, another MCS is likely to form across the northern plains before dropping southeast late Friday night into far northeast Kansas and Missouri. The complex should gradually weaken as it impacts eastern Kansas Saturday morning, however a few of the WRF solutions develop an additional MCS complex near the KS/MO border along the nose of the low level jet overnight. Best chances for this to occur reside along and south of I-35, even though if precip lingers in the morning, temps are cooler overall.
Northwest flow aloft will prevail as the upper trough shifts east over the Mid Atlantic region by this evening as T. With good daytime heating, afternoon highs mainly in the highs. Models showing drier air pushing into the area from the northwest beginning this evening which should keep mostly clear to clear skies overnight allowing for cooler than normal temperatures across north GA. With mostly sunny skies tomorrow, temperatures will again climb into the lower to mid 90s.
More in the way of quasi- organized convection, and greater coverage, is expected to occur during the late afternoon and evening hours as a H5 s/w trough axis advects across.
In fact, afternoon temps are forecast to be a bit cooler across the region through the short term period, resulting in heat indices well below 100. Lows will be cooler too, especially Fri night and Sun night when they will be in the 60s.
Broad 500 mb high pressure will remain centered over New Mexico and extended over the BRO CWFA during the period.
As the upper wave goes more negative tilt and develops a closed low later today and tonight, showers will be slow to leave eastern sections of the CWFA. -Closer to normal temps, less humid for the weekend Northwest winds on the back side of this system usher in a cooler and less humid air mass for the weekend.
Temperatures are starting out very warm this morning in the upper 70s/near 80 so despite more clouds, high temperatures will still reach the low to mid 90s this afternoon even at the coast due to a delayed sea breeze. Guidance continues to depict a stationary trough lying across much of the US east coast during the period. This setup wl be notable enough to displace the Atlc subtropical ridge axis south and east of the local area.
Northwest flow aloft will prevail as the upper trough shifts east over the Mid Atlantic region by this evening as T. Models showing drier air pushing into the area from the northwest beginning this evening which should keep mostly clear to clear skies overnight allowing for cooler than normal temperatures across north GA. With mostly sunny skies tomorrow, temperatures will again climb into the lower to mid 90s.
Issued by National Weather Service Lubbock TX 339 AM CDT Fri Jul 10 2020 High pressure in the mid to upper levels continues to dominate the area, brining hot temperatures reaching into the 100 to 11 range for today. Lower dewpoints and downsloping winds inside the trough will help warm temperatures. Tough to say how much convection may fire with the boundary as vertical temp profiles remain poor due to the influence of the mid/upper level high.
The upper level ridge will be centered over far West Texas and New Mexico today and only expand into the weekend. The ridge will not only lead to mostly clear and dry afternoons, but subsidence underneath the ridge will aid in the warming trend that will continue today through the weekend. The typical summer time pattern of overnight stratus developing through Saturday AM can be expected again as southeasterly winds at the surface continue to keep the low levels very moisture rich.
Another dry cold front moves through Friday evening for a reprieve in fire weather conditions Saturday.
Mid and upper level high pressure centered over NM and AZ will maintain the subsident hot airmass over S TX. The high temps combined with very humid conditions will lead to heat indices reaching up to 110-114 this afternoon from inland Coastal Bend to the Rio Grande Plains. The high pressure is progged to strengthen and spread east Saturday leading to a drier airmass and even hotter max temps.
High pressure builds tonight, ushering in drier and warmer weather for Friday and Saturday.
Precipitation chances will return Friday night as the 850 theta-e ridge works back into the area, and convection that forms over the Dakotas drops southeast along the thickness gradient. We'll see some lingering chances for showers and perhaps a thunderstorm Saturday as the upper trough drops into the area.
152 AM EDT Fri Jul 10 2020 Showers and thunderstorms will occur ahead of a weak cold front today.
A cold front will move over our area while washing out.
A cold front will increase rain chance for the weekend, but will cool temperature back to seasonable levels. Further encroachment of the aforementioned trough will support higher precipitation probabilities on Friday in continued warmth and humidity. Scattered thunderstorms are expected during the afternoon, becoming widespread Friday evening as the trough axis treks across the region. Further escalation of precipitation chances is expected again Saturday with a crossing cold front. Upper troughing with clouds and rain chance will keep temperature around the calculated- normals for the weekend.
1019 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2020 Showers and thunderstorms will be possible through the evening over portions of northern Wisconsin which will be ahead of the cold front and which will also get brushed by an MCV that's off to the south. There may be some patchy fog in spots and lows will drop into the lower fifties to around sixty. Friday will be dry thanks to weak ridging. An upper ridge will then move into the Northern Plains for the second half of the weekend diminishing rain chances over the Northland.
With moderate instability and a weak trough across the area, scattered mainly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms are expected into the weekend. Low temperatures will remain in the low to mid 70s. Low pressure will continue moving northward along the mid Atlantic Seaboard Friday and into the Hudson Valley Friday night. The upper level trough axis will be crossing the forecast area Friday evening then stalling offshore Friday night through Saturday night. With the upper level trough axis offshore Saturday and Saturday night and northwesterly flow pushing drier air into the region pop chances will be lower with highest chances in the eastern Midlands closer to the upper trough axis and best moisture.
An upper trof will move eastward across the northern Plains tonight and then southeastward across the Upper Midwest on Saturday. This would not only result in slightly cooler (less hot) temperatures Saturday afternoon across much of the area, but may also push the better late day storm chances along or south of the Oklahoma border.
Will keep the highest POPs this morning in the northwestern corner of the forecast area, with lower values extending southeastward into east central/southeast Oklahoma and west central Arkansas.
Although temperatures will trend slightly cooler today, highs will still top out in the upper 80s to lower 90s. The weekend will feature broad upper trofiness over the Great Lakes, with a stout ridge over the Desert Southwest. Saturday will be dry, and slightly less muggy in between a couple disturbances swinging through the base of that upper trof.
Subtropical ridge will continue its residency over the region supporting another day of hot above normal temperatures.
1150 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2020 Showers and thunderstorms will be possible through the evening over portions of northern Wisconsin which will be ahead of the cold front and which will also get brushed by an MCV that's off to the south. There may be some patchy fog in spots and lows will drop into the lower fifties to around sixty. Friday will be dry thanks to weak ridging. An upper ridge will then move into the Northern Plains for the second half of the weekend diminishing rain chances over the Northland.
Highs today ought to be mainly in the 90s, but if this morning's t-storms do not materialize then readings would be a few degrees warmer, and possibly in the upper 90s to near 100 around Ashland and Coldwater. A weak cold front will pass across western Kansas on Saturday and this will again keep temperatures from reaching above 100 degrees.
354 AM CDT Fri Jul 10 2020 Early this morning a warm front is pushing northward across South Dakota. The latest 00 UTC global models and more recent CAMs keep the warm front draped generally along the ND/SD border most of the day and only pushing slightly further north (perhaps around Bismarck) later this afternoon. While any storm that fires along the warm front should remain elevated there will likely be enough MUCAPE and effective shear to sustain a strong or possibly severe storm or two. Southerly low-level flow should bring surface dew points back into the low to mid 60s by late afternoon. With bulk shear around 50 knots orthogonal to the approaching cold front an environment supportive of supercells will be present in the pre- frontal air mass.
Tonight and Friday Upper low/trough lifting north from Iowa to Wisconsin will produce thunderstorms through the early morning hours. The slow movement of the storms and the high atmospheric water content will make for a flood potential across central and east central Wisconsin, where a flood watch is in effect through late tonight.
Elsewhere, the strengthening ridging aloft will lead to warmer temperatures in the low to mid 90s. Our northeast will bottom out close to normal in the lower 70s Saturday morning but mid to upper 70s are expected elsewhere.
WV imagery shows a broad ridge spanning the srn CONUS, centered roughly over far west Texas, w/the KEPZ 00Z sounding coming in at 500mb/596dam.
The cold front will reach the western zones of the forecast area by late morning and reach the North Dakota border by early evening. The cold front will move to the east this evening with skies clearing. Upper ridge builds into the area on Saturday with clear skies and warmer temperatures.
Deep layer west-northwest flow continues as a strengthening low (Invest 98L) moves north-northeastward up the mid-Atlantic coast with its associated trough extending south across the region and high pressure remaining over the central Gulf of Mexico. Northwest flow continues over the region with high pressure over the western Gulf of Mexico and troughing over the eastern CONUS. Temperatures will also be above average with highs in the low to mid 90s with heat indices potentially reaching in the 105 - 110 F range.
850 mb temps at around 21-23 (C) for most of the CWA would suggest a second straight day of temperatures being more in the low to mid 90s range for highs. On Saturday the main challenge will be how quickly and far south the cold front moves through the area with temperatures likely being cooler in our northern counties and the possibility of some compressional heating in the afternoon getting temperatures over 100 for counties along the Oklahoma border.
Our region will be between a GOMEX ridge and TS Fay drifting north-northeast along the mid Atlantic coast a deep northwest steering flow is expected once again today this pattern will yield scattered to numerous afternoon and early evening convection across the region. High temperatures will generally range from the low to mid 90s. Johns counties for a couple hours this afternoon, and will need to monitor for a possible heat advisory if the forecast trends any warmer to our advisory threshold of 110 degree heat index.
A cold front will increase rain chance for the weekend, but will cool temperature back to seasonable levels. Tended to lean toward the higher end of the temperature guidance envelope today, with many locations expected to reach 90 once again. The aforementioned trough axis will swing across the region late Friday night and Saturday morning, with frontal passage also on track for tomorrow.
Convection became more scattered late this afternoon and early evening across southeast half of the forecast area as heating allowed temperatures to climb to the lower to mid 90s across the valley areas. RG Chattanooga Airport, TN 93 73 92 70 93 / 20 20 0 20 40 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 91 71 89 69 91 / 50 40 10 10 40 Oak Ridge, TN 92 70 90 68 91 / 50 20 10 20 40 Tri Cities Airport, TN 90 68 86 66 88 / 50 50 30 20 40.
Expect dry conditions to continue overnight with lows falling into the lower 70s. The forecast on Saturday also remains uncertain with the birthplace and movement of MCSs out of the PLains/lower MO valley into the lower MS valley. General pattern over the weekend is a broad ridge over the western 2/3 of the CONUS, with a trough over the East Coast and Appalachians.
1149 PM MDT Thu Jul 9 2020 With the upper-level high pressure centered over the southern US and northern Mexico a pressure gradient still exists over our area. Tomorrow the high pressure will lift northward causing the high temperatures to be 2-3 degrees warmer than today. The high pressure will continue to lift northward toward the Four Corner region. Therefore each day into the weekend will gradually get warmer. Near record heat will be possible as the thermal ridge accompanies the high.
A ridge will be building across the west, resulting in more of a northwesterly flow aloft.
Areas outside of the Heat Advisory will still be hot with Heat Index values climbing to between 100 and 105 degrees, but should remain cooler than advisory levels.
Highs in the Grand Valley should top out near the century mark today, with another degree or two on top of that for Saturday as a potent ridge of high pressure remains parked over the southwestern CONUS.
/Issued Issued by National Weather Service Lubbock TX/ High pressure in the mid to upper levels continues to dominate the area, brining hot temperatures reaching into the 100 to 11 range for today. Lower dewpoints and downsloping winds inside the trough will help warm temperatures. Tough to say how much convection may fire with the boundary as vertical temp profiles remain poor due to the influence of the mid/upper level high.
high pressure aloft will hold any cloud development in check with temperatures expected in the mid 90s.
517 AM MDT Fri Jul 10 2020 An upper ridge over the region will shift eastward today as an upper trough approaches from the west. At the surface, an area of low pressure will develop over eastern Wyoming, with an inverted trough extending northward into eastern Montana. The high dewpoints and warm temperatures will lead to moderate to strong instability developing over western and central South Dakota during the afternoon. Saturday will be slightly cooler than today.
327 AM MDT Fri Jul 10 2020 An upper ridge over the region will shift eastward today as an upper trough approaches from the west. At the surface, an area of low pressure will develop over eastern Wyoming, with an inverted trough extending northward into eastern Montana. The high dewpoints and warm temperatures will lead to moderate to strong instability developing over western and central South Dakota during the afternoon. Saturday will be slightly cooler than today.
635 AM CDT Fri Jul 10 2020 Friday should be a beautiful day! A weak upper level ridge should move over the Northland today bringing sunny skies, warm temperatures (mid 70s to low 80s), and higher humidity (dewpoint in the 50s and 60s).
expect skies to clear across the area this morning and the focus to shift to the next disturbance and associated cold front forecast to cross the local area late this evening. Models are indicating a weak disturbance aloft will work its way around the ridge. there will be storms that form with the approaching upper disturbance/surface cold front and propagate across parts of the area. Generally quieter weather is expected over the weekend as weak ridging will trail tonights disturbance.
943 AM CDT Fri Jul 10 2020 Friday should be a beautiful day! A weak upper level ridge should move over the Northland today bringing sunny skies, warm temperatures (mid 70s to low 80s), and higher humidity (dewpoint in the 50s and 60s).
High pressure continues to build in this morning resulting in drier and warmer weather today and Saturday.