Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
519 AM CST Fri Jan 29 2021 High pressure centered over the Illinois/Indiana border this morning was keeping dry weather and light south winds over the Ozarks and southeast Kansas early this morning. With the exception of some passing patches of high clouds, we expect abundant sunshine which will allow afternoon temperatures to rise into the mid to upper 40s over the eastern Ozarks and into the lower to mid 50s near the Kansas border. Southerly winds will increase through the late afternoon and evening as the pressure gradient tightens between the exiting high pressure to the east and deepening low pressure to the west. These winds will keep overnight temperatures in the lower 40s over the western tier of our counties, while some locations over the eastern Ozarks (mainly lower sheltered areas) will likely dip to below freezing.
431 AM EST Fri Jan 29 2021 Dry high pressure will dominate the weather with cooler and drier conditions through Saturday.
Given this, as well as a fairly robust capping inversion and limited instability, any precipitation ahead of the approach of a surface cold front during the day on Saturday is likely to be confined to isolated streamer showers. As the boundary reaches the coast and moderate to strong northerly winds return in its wake, a surge of cooler and drier air will take hold over the region as we approach the end of the weekend. Highs on Saturday will reach the lower 70s across most of the area.
/Issued 438 AM EST Fri Jan 29 2021/ High pressure ridge will move overhead today and begin to push offshore on Saturday. By late Saturday, low pressure begins to move into the central US, with a frontal boundary still west of the Mississippi River. The newer model guidance isn't really showing any precip at this time, with high pressure firmly in place.
Upper ridging will build into MN today, with southeast winds and warm and moist air advecting into the region. We have been getting reports of freezing drizzle from plow cams and ASOS icing groups just to the southeast of our counties. Will include some freezing drizzle mention through the morning, and put out an SPS for travel impacts. The subsidence will be fairly short lived as the next upper trough moves into the western Plains tonight and eastward tomorrow. Given recent obs and the model soundings showing a dry layer aloft continuing into Friday night, will continue the previous shift trend of freezing drizzle for at least portions of the tonight into Saturday period. Some snow mixing in across the east on Saturday as the inverted trough moves into MN.
Visibility has been reduced across the CWA this morning some patchy advection fog with relatively warmer air working over the snowpack. Sunny skies and continued WAA should help push temps above freezing over the southeastern 2/3 of the CWA and the continue deterioration of the snowpack. Isotropic upglide tied to strong lee cyclogenesis may produce some light snow or freezing drizzle. The low becomes anomalously deep as measured in geopotential height and SLP. GFS continues to be 3-5F warmer than everything else.
Pleasant cool dry weather with ample sunshine is expected across the entire forecast area the remainder of today as high pressure builds in over the region. Despite ample sunshine weak cool air advection will keep temperatures below normal with temperatures in the 30s and 40s early this morning only expected to reach the lower 60s across the Nature coast, and mid to upper 60s central and south during the afternoon. High pressure building into the region will allow winds and seas to continue to diminish and subside the remainder of today with northeast winds in the 10 to 15 knot range this morning diminishing to around 10 knots during the afternoon with seas subsiding to 2 to 3 feet. In addition to the low humidity values, diminishing 20 foot winds and transport winds will support low dispersions across the region during the afternoon.
A splitting trough moves across the Rockies tonight. Accumulations are expected to be light, with a few inches possible over the mountains today through Saturday, and a dusting to half inch at the lower elevations. Drier conditions return during the afternoon and evening Saturday as high pressure builds in from the west.
429 AM MST Fri Jan 29 2021 Water vapor shows large ridge over the central CONUS with digging trof along the west coast. Upper ridge will shift east today as upper trof works into the western CONUS. There is some chance for freezing drizzle on parts of the SD plains given amount of dry air above the moist boundary layer, but shear is rather weak. Cold front will sweep through on Saturday leading to some gusty northwest winds and scattered snow showers. Majority of moisture should remain well to our south with the upper low crossing the Southern Plains.
A high-amplitude upper-level trough moves east and splits into northern and southern branches today. The upper-level trough finally exits to the east by late Saturday morning, ending any remaining light snow across southwest Montana, with at least partial clearing across much of the region by late Saturday afternoon, if not sooner, as transitory upper ridging moves across the region.
The axis of a broad ridge of high pressure will gradually move east through the day, leading to plenty of cloud cover as we transition to southwest flow aloft. Even with widespread clouds, temperatures will be a bit warmer than yesterday as warm air advection spreads across the state. However, forecast soundings suggest a lack of ice aloft which will likely lead to some freezing drizzle. The freezing drizzle threat should continue overnight and expand west and north a bit in the 12z to 18z time frame on Saturday. Therefore, its not out of the question that we could see some pockets of freezing drizzle here as well, but confidence is lacking to include it in the gridded forecast at this time. Clearing continues Saturday night from west to east as high pressure at the surface moves in.
/issued 323 AM CST Fri Jan 29 2021/ SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday): Mid level ridging continues across the central CONUS as a strong storm system across California races across the Rockies and into the Plains by Saturday. An associated cold front sweeps into the western counties of Deep South Texas late Saturday afternoon. Temperatures will respond accordingly to the increasing southerly flow and sunshine, as well as the approaching cold front potentially pulling winds more SSW by Saturday afternoon.
647 AM EST Fri Jan 29 2021 Dry high pressure will dominate the weather with cooler and drier conditions through Saturday.
Upper ridge can be seen on satellite as high clouds stream across the area. In areas where clouds were thicker, it's a few degrees warmer than expected, but much of the area was near 30 and will likely fall another degree or two before sunrise. Even with cold advection yesterday values were generally in the lower 50s, so more southerly flow and drier air may help a few places over achieve, especially in the south. As for tonight, looking for light southerly winds and increasing clouds to help make it a little warmer tonight. Overall, a little warmer but nothing too exciting in the short term.
313 AM CST Fri Jan 29 2021 High pressure centered over the Illinois/Indiana border this morning was keeping dry weather and light south winds over the Ozarks and southeast Kansas early this morning. With the exception of some passing patches of high clouds, we expect abundant sunshine which will allow afternoon temperatures to rise into the mid to upper 40s over the eastern Ozarks and into the lower to mid 50s near the Kansas border. Southerly winds will increase through the late afternoon and evening as the pressure gradient tightens between the exiting high pressure to the east and deepening low pressure to the west. These winds will keep overnight temperatures in the lower 40s over the western tier of our counties, while some locations over the eastern Ozarks (mainly lower sheltered areas) will likely dip to below freezing.
The main Pacific trough will arrive in the Great Basin later this afternoon before quickly progressing east towards the Four Corners this evening. The mild southwest flow will produce rain in the lower valleys at the onset of this event with only a couple inches of snow expected for these areas by the time colder air filters into the region tonight. Subadvisory snowfall is expected for the rest of the higher elevations with generally 3 to 6 inches projected for all but the Eastern Uintas and Roan and Tavaputs Plateaus where accumulations of 1 to 3 inches are likely. The main area to watch for a potential advisory is the Northwest San Juan Mountains as a Gorge event is possible as upper level flow shifts to the northwest in the wake of the trough's passage tonight.
524 AM CST Fri Jan 29 2021 (Today and tonight) Surface winds will increase from the south late this morning under a mid to upper ridge ahead of an approaching upper trough traversing central CA. As a result, expect much warmer afternoon highs today despite increasing cirrostratus from the SW ahead of the aforementioned trough.
Trough over the western U. will continue to move east with the southern portion of the trough passing south of WY. The southwest may see some snow this afternoon into tonight as the trough passes through that area. As the trough moves through tonight, scattered light snow may occur east of the divide.
In response, with deepening low level moisture and increasing lift across the area, will have patchy freezing drizzle develop tonight, though any ice accumulation should be fairly minimal overnight with only weak lift. Precipitation type on Saturday is going to come down to freezing drizzle or plain drizzle/light rain dependent on surface temperatures. Overall, looking at surface temperatures in the lower to mid 30s, with coldest temperatures over east central SD, southwestern MN, and into the Iowa Great Lakes region.
208 AM MST Fri Jan 29 2021 Water vapor shows large ridge over the central CONUS with digging trof along the west coast. Upper ridge will shift east today as upper trof works into the western CONUS. There is some chance for freezing drizzle on parts of the SD plains given amount of dry air above the moist boundary layer, but shear is rather weak. Cold front will sweep through on Saturday leading to some gusty northwest winds and scattered snow showers. Majority of moisture should remain well to our south with the upper low crossing the Southern Plains.
For 12Z Aviation discussion below Freezing drizzle so light it's undetectable on radar developed across north/west central MN overnight, with slippery roadways developing per the MN DOT 511 site. Given the absence of sufficient moisture in the dendritic layer, we are seeing freezing drizzle instead of flurries like eastern locations are seeing. Do not anticipate the areal extent to expand more, or the impact to increase, so we will stick with the SPS to message the threat for areas of very light freezing drizzle this morning. A greater threat for freezing precipitation arrives tonight as an inverted trough noses into the region and theta-e advection blossoms over the area. Have fairly high confidence that the precipitation type will be freezing drizzle tonight into mid-day Saturday, but lower confidence with respect to QPF and ice accumulations.
438 AM EST Fri Jan 29 2021 High pressure ridge will move overhead today and begin to push offshore on Saturday. By late Saturday, low pressure begins to move into the central US, with a frontal boundary still west of the Mississippi River. The newer model guidance isn't really showing any precip at this time, with high pressure firmly in place.
332 AM MST Fri Jan 29 2021 An upper level trough will move towards the region from the wrn US. Further east across the plains will keep readings in the upper 40s to mid 50s, although areas over the far nern corner may only be in the lower 40s. For tonight, the upper level trough will move into the region. Across the plains, a cold front will move across the plains late tonight with gusty NNW winds developing. On Saturday, the upper trof intensifies into a closed low and rapidly moves through Kansas and then out into the upper Mid west Saturday night. Expect increasing QG decent behind the low across Colorado with the best subsidence across far Southern Colorado and New Mexico.
535 AM CST Fri Jan 29 2021 The short term forecast will start out very quiet with some strong mid and and upper level ridging dominating the CWA. Fair weather can be expected with temperatures much warmer than the past few days. A strong low pressure system will be emerging from the Four Corners area and begin to encroach on the region.
Surface winds will be much weaker today with the ridge axis over Alabama. A fast moving short wave trof will bring scattered showers into northwest Alabama late Saturday afternoon, with rain spreading into west Alabama after sunset.
403 AM EST Fri Jan 29 2021 Water vapor imagery highlights rising heights across the Great Plains, linked to a long wave ridge complex centered over Central America. The 00Z KKEY RAOB sampled a deep layer of northwesterlies which paint the eastern flank of the ridge complex. Breezes will steadily veer as the high repositions.
A weak upper level trough will move through the region by Saturday morning. Upper level ridging builds on Saturday with precipitation diminishing most areas with the exception that light snow showers may persist across northwest Montana.
The weekend weather will be dry and a little warmer.
Afternoon highs will be in the low to mid 60s across the north, and mid to upper 60s across the south.
Upstream upper level ridging is building over the central CONUS in response to this trough. Strong CAA on the back side of this low may allow for precipitation to change over to snow across northern Missouri Saturday night with a few tenths accumulation possible.
355 AM CST Fri Jan 29 2021 Freezing drizzle so light it's undetectable on radar developed across north/west central MN overnight, with slippery roadways developing per the MN DOT 511 site. Given the absence of sufficient moisture in the dendritic layer, we are seeing freezing drizzle instead of flurries like eastern locations are seeing. Do not anticipate the areal extent to expand more, or the impact to increase, so we will stick with the SPS to message the threat for areas of very light freezing drizzle this morning. A greater threat for freezing precipitation arrives tonight as an inverted trough noses into the region and theta-e advection blossoms over the area. Have fairly high confidence that the precipitation type will be freezing drizzle tonight into mid-day Saturday, but lower confidence with respect to QPF and ice accumulations.
Issued by National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 629 AM CST Fri Jan 29 2021 Moisture continues to stream in ahead of a cold front that is due to arrive tomorrow just outside the current period.
Brief high pressure builds overnight with valley fog formation likely given the inversion and moist boundary layer.
A Pacific low pressure trough will bring snow to the state as it moves through the region today.
Issued by National Weather Service Topeka KS 305 AM CST Fri Jan 29 2021 The short term forecast will start out very quiet with some strong mid and and upper level ridging dominating the CWA. Fair weather can be expected with temperatures much warmer than the past few days. A strong low pressure system will be emerging from the Four Corners area and begin to encroach on the region.
353 AM CST Fri Jan 29 2021 (Issued 353 AM CST Fri Jan 29 2021) Today and Tonight: High pressure will give us one more quiet day as it slowly pushes eastward. Highs will be warmer than yesterday with values in the mid to upper 20s. Cloud cover and southeasterly winds will prevent temperatures from dropping much overnight with values in the low to mid 20s.
Lee cyclogenesis will commence over the southern/central Plains on Saturday as an upper level trough ejects into the central CONUS. Precipitation is expected to develop ahead of a surface warm front associated with the deepening low, and it will likely reach our region sometime during the afternoon on Saturday. There may be enough cooling in the low levels that web-bulb temperatures support a period of snow or wintry precipitation for a short timeframe Saturday evening, mainly across the Kentucky Bluegrass and southern Indiana counties east of I-65 within the CWA. As the warm front slowly lifts northward Saturday night, modest warm air advection in the low levels would transition everything over to a cold rain.
SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday): Mid level ridging continues across the central CONUS as a strong storm system across California races across the Rockies and into the Plains by Saturday. An associated cold front sweeps into the western counties of Deep South Texas late Saturday afternoon. Temperatures will respond accordingly to the increasing southerly flow and sunshine, as well as the approaching cold front potentially pulling winds more SSW by Saturday afternoon.
Visibility has been reduced across the CWA this morning some patchy advection fog with relatively warmer air working over the snowpack. Sunny skies and continued WAA should help push temps above freezing over the southeastern 2/3 of the CWA and the continue deterioration of the snowpack. Isotropic upglide tied to strong lee cyclogenisis may produce some light snow or freezing drizzle. The low becomes anomolously deep as measured in geopotential height and SLP. GFS continues to be 3-5F warmer than everything else.
(Today and tonight) Surface winds will increase from the south late this morning under a mid to upper ridge ahead of an approaching upper trough traversing central CA. As a result, expect much warmer afternoon highs today despite increasing cirrostratus from the SW ahead of the aforementioned trough.
Forecast looks to be on track with showers increasing late tonight into tomorrow morning and winds becoming gusty tomorrow afternoon ahead of a cold front.
Temperatures will likely be 1-2 degrees warmer than yesterday which called for a slight upward adjustment to our high temperature forecast. Upper level ridging over TX will slowly slide east through the near term while northwest flow continues to dominate the CWA.
Looking at a suite of hi-res guidance, decided to blend latest solutions to tweak max temperatures a few degrees cooler, primarily for the aforementioned regions. Lee cyclogenesis will commence over the southern/central Plains on Saturday as an upper level trough ejects into the central CONUS. Precipitation is expected to develop ahead of a surface warm front associated with the deepening low, and it will likely reach our region sometime during the afternoon on Saturday. There may be enough cooling in the low levels that web-bulb temperatures support a period of snow or wintry precipitation for a short timeframe Saturday evening, mainly across the Kentucky Bluegrass and southern Indiana counties east of I-65 within the CWA. As the warm front slowly lifts northward Saturday night, modest warm air advection in the low levels would transition everything over to a cold rain.
Upper Cumberland will stay on the cooler side, with highs in the low 40s for most.
Issued by National Weather Service Norman OK 235 PM CST Fri Jan 29 2021 Large trough over California/Nevada will approach Oklahoma tonight and move across the forecast area on Saturday. As the mid-level trough approaches, moisture depth will increase over the area and rain will start to develop and move into the forecast area late tonight, most likely after midnight, then become widespread Saturday morning before moving out of the area by sunset. A cold front will move through Saturday afternoon and evening, so cooler temperatures are expected for the beginning of the week.
Precipitation will fall off on Saturday save for some of the higher terrain in the Bitterroots and the northwest corner of Montana as a ridge builds over the Northern Rockies. The ridge will keep precipitation out of the forecast through Saturday night.
A strong upper level trough will move across the area tonight and tomorrow bringing very windy conditions to most locations in our CWA. The High Wind Watch has been upgraded to a warning with a Wind Advisory issued for much of our remaining counties. The timing of the trough is fortunate, if it were to move across during the afternoon instead of overnight and early morning hours, winds may have been a bit stronger with afternoon heating increasing mixing from aloft.
Current temperatures are in the lower 50s in the higher elevations on the west side of Rapid City and in the lower 20s on the east side. Water vapor shows large ridge over the central CONUS with digging trof along the west coast. Upper ridge will shift east today as upper trof works into the western CONUS. There is some chance for freezing drizzle on parts of the SD plains given amount of dry air above the moist boundary layer, but shear is rather weak. Cold front will sweep through on Saturday leading to some gusty northwest winds and scattered snow showers. Majority of moisture should remain well to our south with the upper low crossing the Southern Plains.
1132 AM CST Fri Jan 29 2021 High pressure centered over the Illinois/Indiana border this morning was keeping dry weather and light south winds over the Ozarks and southeast Kansas early this morning. With the exception of some passing patches of high clouds, we expect abundant sunshine which will allow afternoon temperatures to rise into the mid to upper 40s over the eastern Ozarks and into the lower to mid 50s near the Kansas border. Southerly winds will increase through the late afternoon and evening as the pressure gradient tightens between the exiting high pressure to the east and deepening low pressure to the west. These winds will keep overnight temperatures in the lower 40s over the western tier of our counties, while some locations over the eastern Ozarks (mainly lower sheltered areas) will likely dip to below freezing.
107 PM EST Fri Jan 29 2021 Dry high pressure will dominate the weather with cooler and drier conditions through Saturday.
High pressure will move east of the region today through tonight. It will be a few degrees "warmer" today due to modest return flow.
12Z upper air analysis/GOES-16 Satellite trends depict an upper level ridge axis centered over portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley. At the surface, high pressure over the OH Valley will gradually shift east today, allowing winds to swing around from the south. The trough currently located on the West Coast will swing across the Southern Plains early Saturday, becoming negatively-tilted as it lifts across the Ozarks. A few showers will be possible west of the MS river early Saturday but PoPs will ramp up throughout the day, peaking during the late afternoon and evening hours as lift from the approaching trough overspreads the region.
In areas where clouds were thicker, it's a few degrees warmer than expected, but much of the area was near 30 and will likely fall another degree or two before sunrise. Even with cold advection yesterday values were generally in the lower 50s, so more southerly flow and drier air may help a few places over achieve, especially in the south. As for tonight, looking for light southerly winds and increasing clouds to help make it a little warmer tonight. Overall, a little warmer but nothing too exciting in the short term.
Still expecting some boundary layer mixing of dewpoints this afternoon therefore RHs could fall into the lower 30s to upper 20s for some areas, however amidst light nwly/nly surface flow. VFR through the period as high pressure dominates. CDG Chattanooga Airport, TN 29 50 41 60 36 / 0 10 100 50 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 26 49 37 56 36 / 0 20 100 60 40 Oak Ridge, TN 26 48 36 55 35 / 0 20 100 60 40 Tri Cities Airport, TN 23 48 34 52 35 / 0 30 100 70 50.
Light winds and clear skies will make for another chilly night tonight with patchy frost likely in the normally cooler spots.