Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
228 AM MDT Sun Mar 28 2021 Latest upper air analysis shows a ridge over the West Coast with trough over the Missouri River Valley. Satellite imagery showed some clouds moving around the ridge to the west and east of the trough to the east. At the surface a high pressure was moving through. Today will be warmer than yesterday due to the WAA with the southwesterly winds. Tonight lows will be warmer than last night due to the continued WAA.
Much cooler and drier air will filter into the region today with temperatures only recovering into the lower to middle 60s this afternoon after dropping into the 50s this morning. As high pressure drops into eastern TN tonight, winds will diminish and good radiational cooling is expected.
Behind the cold front, temps range from the low 30s near the Nebraska border to the lower 40s over east central KS where a 850- 925 mb low level jet has kept sfc winds mixed between 10 and 20 mph sustained. Weak upslope flow combined with sunny skies should allow for an overall warmer afternoon to end the weekend with readings from the upper 60s in north central KS to the lower 60s over most of east central and northeast Kansas.
Cooler and drier air will push into the area. High pressure will dominate the forecast through mid week.
Skies clear tonight as high pressure builds in with overnight lows 25 to 30 expected. Sfc cold front now entering nw zones at this hour with lingering showers along pre-frontal trough.
330 AM EDT Sun Mar 28 2021 Synopsis/Discussion/Marine - Rain and snow expected today with cooler temperatures - Mid week upper trough to bring colder weather - Some model disparity towards the end of the week - Rain and snow expected today with cooler temperatures A cold front is pushing through Western Lower Michigan as of 300am. pushing into the Highway 131 corridor. We are not expecting any impacts given warmer ground and marginal air temperatures in the 30s. Cannot rule out a 2 inch total on the high ground near Tustin and Dighton.
333 AM CDT Sun Mar 28 2021 Some lingering light showers are present early this morning across far south-central Missouri behind a cold front that moved through the area yesterday. Breezy northwest winds behind the front are also ushering a cooler air mass into the region, dropping morning low temperatures into the upper 30s over western Missouri to mid 40s over far south-central Missouri. The cooler, drier air mass will be very noticeable today, with high temperatures only reaching the upper 50s to low 60s area-wide, which is about 15 to 20 degrees colder than yesterday's highs. Winds will then turn southerly this evening and tonight as the center of the high pressure passes just to our south, with lows once again in the upper 30s to low 40s.
345 AM CDT Sun Mar 28 2021 WV imagery shows the upper trough moving through West Texas and Southeast New Mexico this morning, w/a ridge moving in from the western CONUS to replace it. High-based -SHRA developed ahead of the trough last night, kicking off a slew of virga bombs, mainly over the Permian Basin. A cold front accompanied the trough, and sfc observations at 08Z indicate it has crossed the river. Temps behind the cold front today will be around 5F below normal.
1031 PM CDT Sat Mar 27 2021 As of 10 PM, the cold front is situated from far NW LA southwestward toward College Station TX. Also adjusted Min T upward slightly, along with hourly temps/dewpoints which are running a few degrees warmer than anticipated. CIGS are expected to lower into IFR later tonight ahead of and in association with an approaching cold front that will also be accompanied by a band of showers and thunderstorms. Cooler drier weather is forecasted for Sunday night with lows mainly in the 40s.
As of 10pm, all storms from the afternoon have shifted north of the area, and we sit clear of any precipitation south of a warm front currently producing severe storms and flooding across central Tennessee. To our west, tornadic supercells have formed ahead of a cold front and are currently tracking in a line from Clarksville TN to Memphis and to Shreveport LA. The cold front will rocket eastward across the region in the late night and early Sunday morning. With cooler air filtering in, high temperatures for Palm Sunday should be ~15 degrees cooler than today. The cooler air will make itself more noted Sun night, as lows chill into the mid/upper 30s.
1234 AM CDT Sun Mar 28 2021 (This evening through Sunday) At this hour, a cold front was slowly dropping southward through the South Plains and the Big Country. Temperatures ahead of the front were in the low 80s, and were in the 70s behind the front. By tonight, the cold front will push through all of West Central Texas, causing winds to shift out of the north and increase to 15-25 mph. Lows tonight behind the front will be in the mid to upper 40s as a slightly cooler airmass is advected in from the north. Across the Big Country, winds will become south and this should limit lows to the lower and mid 40s.
1254 AM EDT Sun Mar 28 2021 Showers, and a few thunderstorms, return today with the passage of a cold front. Dry weather then rules during the early part of the new work week under high pressure. Would expect the best chance for any convection to be directly ahead of the passing cold front. The sfc cold front will will complete its passage by late afternoon, pushing the convection east of the region. Scattered showers look to continue into the evening hours with the crossing trough axis and strong cold advection. The best location for any accumulation would be over the highest elevations where steep llvl lapse rates support convective infiltration through the DGZ, though this potential should be marred by a lowering inversion.
329 AM CDT Sun Mar 28 2021 310 AM CDT A surface cold front has just cleared my northwestern IN counties. In the wake of this front, very breezy and much cooler conditions can be expected today. However, some parts of far northeastern IL and northwestern IN could still yet experience a brief light shower early this morning as the upper trough axis shifts overhead.
305 AM CDT Sun Mar 28 2021 A cold front pushed through the region last night, ushering in breezy northwesterly winds. The breezy conditions will persist throughout today, as High pressure begins to build back into the Midwest. Temperatures will much cooler than yesterday, with highs only reaching the low 50s. The High pressure system will quickly shift through the area, into the Ohio Valley region for the first part of the new work week.
106 AM CDT Sun Mar 28 2021 Line of convection ahead of a cold front will continue to move sewd across our region through early this morning, bringing tstms to KMLU and perhaps to KLFK. After exiting our eastern zones, dry conditions and cooler than average temperatures arrive, continuing through Sunday night.
1053 PM CDT Sat Mar 27 2021 (This evening through Sunday) Cold front, already south and east of I-44 this afternoon will continue to push south and east this evening.
Cold front located back across far western TN at this time. Across the mid state, strong forcing continues along a very slow moving pre frontal trough. The low temps may be a bit too cold but will allow day shift to tackle this.
423 AM EDT Sun Mar 28 2021 Very mild conditions exist across the area early this morning ahead of a strong cold front that will cross north and central GA today. Greatest severe potential will be across northwest/north-central GA (west of a Blue Ridge to Jasper to Cartersville to Cedartown line) this morning, where 50-60kts low lvl (0-3KM) winds/bulk shear coupled with MLCAPE up to 500 J/KG will exist to support damaging wind threat in any bowing line segments. Much drier/cooler air will filter across the area tonight with low temps in the 30s/40s (far cry from the 60s/70s we are seeing this morning).
1038 PM CDT Sat Mar 27 2021 This afternoon, scattered showers continue to track southeast through the region, aided by ascent from the broader upper trough and upper jet streak digging into the Northern Plains. Skies should eventually clear out except perhaps for residual cirrus, and with 850mb temperatures dropping to 0 to -5C overnight, it will be a chilly night with lows falling to near to below the freezing mark. Dry, quiet weather takes hold starting Sunday as strong upper ridging and warm air advection build into the Northern Plains.
Greatest severe potential will be across northwest/north-central GA (west of a Blue Ridge to Jasper to Cartersville to Cedartown line) this morning, where 50-60kts low lvl (0-3KM) winds/bulk shear coupled with MLCAPE up to 500 J/KG will exist to support damaging wind threat in any bowing line segments. With this forecast issuance, increased non-convective/ gradient winds ahead of and behind the cold front.
/issued 106 AM CDT Sun Mar 28 2021/ Line of convection ahead of a cold front will continue to move sewd across our region through early this morning, bringing tstms to KMLU and perhaps to KLFK. After exiting our eastern zones, dry conditions and cooler than average temperatures arrive, continuing through Sunday night.
This will be ideal conditions for some frost to develop in the cooler post frontal airmass, which sees temps drop to lows in the low to mid 30s.
VFR conditions will prevail thru the period behind a cold front. /Issued 853 PM CDT Sat Mar 27 2021/ The cold front which triggered and killed the storms this evening has pushed its way to the Red River at this time leaving behind gusty north to northwesterly winds across eastern Oklahoma and northwestern Arkansas.
348 AM CDT Sun Mar 28 2021 Wx map shows cold front advancing across the ArkLaTex, just past Shreveport, Longview and Nacogdoches. Ahead of the front, temperatures in the lower 70s will likely persist until the frontal passage later this morning, with temperatures dropping into the 60s for the remainder of the morning and afternoon. The threat appears to be very limited to the thunderstorms along the advancing cold front within the next couple of hours, but with most of the energy lifting north and east, the risk will be diminishing toward daybreak.
/issued 822 PM CDT Sat Mar 27 2021/ Cancelled the high wind warning for GDP Mtns and wind advisory for Culberson Co. /issued 233 PM CDT Sat Mar 27 2021/ An upper trough moving into NM this morning will pass over Far West TX by late afternoon and across the area tonight. As the parent trough over the Great Lakes pushes east Sunday the southern end of it will shear out as high pressure builds in from the west.
917 PM PDT Sat Mar 27 2021 Ridging aloft and weak offshore flow will continue the warming into Sunday under mostly clear skies.
Strengthening southwest flow ahead of a deepening trough approaching from the west will result in breezy southwest winds and minimum relative humidity values in the 20-25% range mainly south and west of the Missouri River.
131 AM EDT Sun Mar 28 2021 A low pressure system will bring showers and a rumble of thunder the rest of the night before dry and noticeably cooler weather settles into the area later today along with breezy conditions.
These low visibility conditions will then improve before daybreak as a cold front accompanied by a line of showers and storms approaches the region from the northwest.
1135 PM CDT Sat Mar 27 2021 High pressure will build into the area tonight allowing winds to diminish while remaining light and westerly. Some locations could see frost with temperatures near freezing, especially those in central KS while those in southeast Kansas bottom out in the upper 30s to near 40. As high pressure translates over the Southern Plains and into the Lower Mississippi Valley area on Sunday southwesterly winds will help boost temperatures into the upper 60s/around 70 in some locations.
249 AM EDT Sun Mar 28 2021 A similar pattern aloft will exist today as we saw on Saturday, with ridging over our area dominating the weather. Because of this, relatively cooler marine air will moderate coastal areas and keep highs a few degrees lower - low to mid 80s versus upper 80s to near 90 degrees inland.
/Issued 900 PM EDT Sat Mar 27 2021/ Convective development has largely waned for the evening though some isolated triggering near the lifted warm front and possible weak upper impulses could still occur and a few strong cells with hail or gusty winds cannot be ruled out in north GA. With this forecast issuance, increased non-convective/ gradient winds ahead of and behind the cold front.
400 AM CDT Sun Mar 28 2021 Upper level trof axis currently moving eastward across Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas had pushed the remaining cloud cover eastward and out of the CWA early this morning. northerly flow transporting a cooler and drier airmass was common across the region with temps in the 40s and 50s over the CWA. These cooler conditions underneath mostly clear skies are expected to continue for today with forecast highs in the 60s for most locations.
(Today and tonight) The mid-level trough will be moving east away from the area today, with flow aloft becoming more zonal tonight.
218 AM MDT Sun Mar 28 2021 Potent upper trough is in the process of digging into the Pac NW, with associated downstream ridging.
317 AM CDT Sun Mar 28 2021 In the wake of the second cold front that has moved through overnight areas of stratus and gusty northwest winds have occurred. These winds will diminish in the afternoon as high pressure ridge settles into the dvn cwa. Tonight: Ridge quickly slides off to our east in the evening then a tightening gradient develops overnight as rapidly intensifying clipper organizes in southern Alberta.
As this process unfolds, the deep layer ridge over the local area will gradually be forced southeastward.
356 AM EDT Sun Mar 28 2021 Showers, and a few thunderstorms, return today with the passage of a cold front. Dry weather then rules during the early part of the new work week under high pressure. Would expect the best chance for any convection to be directly ahead of the passing cold front. The sfc cold front will will complete its passage by late afternoon, pushing the convection east of the region. Scattered showers look to continue into the evening hours with the crossing trough axis and strong cold advection. The best location for any accumulation would be over the highest elevations where steep llvl lapse rates support convective infiltration through the DGZ, though this potential should be marred by a lowering inversion.
Temperatures across the island chain are in the mid to upper 70s and dew points values in the low 70s. The subtropical ridge over the western Atlantic will remain the dominant factor in the weather pattern that will affect the Florida Keys through the middle of the week. This ridge extends from the Atlantic to the Gulf of Mexico and will keep the island chain on a general east to southeast wind flow.
Ahead of this system a transitory ridge will keep things dry and push temperatures above normal today. The ridge will be forced into the Plains by sunrise on Monday as the upstream storm drops into the Northern Rockies. Though the combo of wind and snow will create some tricky driving conditions in the High County late in the day. Momentum Xfer numbers on the Bufkit profiles along the Highway 40 corridor show the potential for gusts in excess of 50 mph and would not bet against 60+ mph gusts coming out of some of the showers pre and post fropa. Temperatures ahead of the front over much of the southern half of the CWA will be some 5 to 10 degrees above normal with a few 70 degree readings in the lower deserts.
By tomorrow, strong winds will develop out ahead of a cold front, bringing isolated rain and snow showers to portions of northeastern and eastern Nevada along with much cooler temperatures.
High pressure will build in from the west today resulting in a warm up and light winds for all but eastern areas where southwest winds develop.
Warming trend continues today under building high pressure aloft. Highs today will run 6 to 11 degrees warmer than yesterday and be above normal for most of the area for the first time since last Sunday. Monday will be an interesting day as Tucson and the lower deserts will be flirting with highs around 90 degrees even though upper heights start to fall. Latest guidance a bit warmer so upped highs a degree or two across the lower deserts.
558 AM CDT Sun Mar 28 2021 A cold front pushed through the region last night, ushering in breezy northwesterly winds. The breezy conditions will persist throughout today, as High pressure begins to build back into the Midwest. Temperatures will much cooler than yesterday, with highs only reaching the low 50s. The High pressure system will quickly shift through the area, into the Ohio Valley region for the first part of the new work week.
Mostly sunny conditions will continue to fill in behind, with temps remaining on the cooler side today.
High pressure will remain in place through the remainder of the weekend, resulting in dry conditions with a warming trend. A strong cold front will move through on Monday followed by high pressure for the middle to latter part of the upcoming week.
In the wake of the second cold front that has moved through overnight areas of stratus and gusty northwest winds have occurred. These winds will diminish in the afternoon as high pressure ridge settles into the dvn cwa. Tonight: Ridge quickly slides off to our east in the evening then a tightening gradient develops overnight as rapidly intensifying clipper organizes in southern Alberta.
The high pressure will move east today as southerly winds begin to increase. There is a warm front that will move into central SD later today, and there are some signs from hi-res models that there may be a relative "lull" in speeds along the front. Models continue to speed up the passage of the cold front, and comes through during the day. Even with the onset of cooler temps earlier than expected a few days ago, model dewpoints are still low enough to generate RH values from 20 to 25 percent for most of the CWA. Winds will also be an issue with the passage of the cold front.
This rain will fall into a southward moving pressure bore potentially enhancing the high wind gust potential. Some high cloudiness circulating across the nrn Rockies is expected to move through nrn Nebraska today and the cold front Monday should enter nrn Nebraska around 20z-21z, partially disrupting the heating cycle across the north.
A strong Pacific cold front will move from west to east through the area tonight, ushering in much colder air, along with a chance for rain or snow through Monday.
Today Through Monday Night A cold front was currently sweeping through the state early this morning with only a few showers and thunderstorms observed over extreme SErn AR. Gusty N/NW winds will be noted as high pressure moves into the region today. This will be fairly progressive with the ridge shifting Ewrd by Monday and deamplifying. At the surface, high pressure will move into the TN Valley with winds switching to the S on Monday.
Cooler and drier air was slightly delayed, so kept the area warmer through this morning. Overnight lows will be at least 20 degrees cooler across the area. Went with guidance, but even with cooler/drier air in place thinking this kind of cooling will depend on clear skies.
The flow aloft still looks marginal for much wave amplification, so the strong winds should be limited to the higher mountains with breezy conditions mixing down in the afternoon near the east slopes and along the northern border. Tonight the ridgetop flow becomes more westerly and increases to 40-50 knots. This will present a small threat of high winds, but that is likely limited to the higher elevations and the most wave prone locations in westerly flow like exposed areas west of Boulder and Golden. Mesoscale models are probably correct in holding most of the wind over the east slopes with the wave trough there, since it's still warm advection and there's nothing to force the wind eastward beyond the wave itself. Strong west-southwesterly jet level flow is progged on Monday and Monday night ahead of the next upper trough.
1050 AM EDT Sun Mar 28 2021 Showers will continue today with passing low pressure. Dry weather will return for the early part of the new work week under high pressure. Showers will continue ahead of an advancing cold front this afternoon, supported by jet ascent east of an advancing trough. After fropa, intruding dry air will reduce shower coverage, though iso/sct showers may develop through the evening in conjunction with the passing upper trough axis and cold advection. Iso/sct snow showers favoring the I-80 corridor and higher terrain may linger overnight in the wake of the exiting trough, with NW flow and cold advection allowing for lake enhancement.
The passage of a cold front today will bring backing and increasing winds with an opportunity for precipitation. /issued 425 AM CDT Sun Mar 28 2021/ SHORT TERM (Now through Monday): The most significant event in this portion of the forecast remains the passage of a cold front today. The precipitation will shift towards the east tonight and be concentrated offshore Monday as the surface front and associated mid-level trough move farther away from the region.
221 AM PDT Sun Mar 28 2021 Ridging aloft and weak offshore flow will continue warming today.
SHORT TERM (Now through Monday): The most significant event in this portion of the forecast remains the passage of a cold front today. The precipitation will shift towards the east tonight and be concentrated offshore Monday as the surface front and associated mid-level trough move farther away from the region.
A subsidence inversion was recorded at ~830 mb on the 12Z KEY RAOB, with the bulk of the moisture is located in the lower levels below this inversion. An elongated area of high pressure is still centered over Bermuda, which will keep our winds east to southeast and rain chances near nil today. From synopsis, The subtropical ridge over the western Atlantic will be the main weather feature affecting the Keys through midweek.
Behind the cold front, temps range from the low 30s near the Nebraska border to the lower 40s over east central KS where a 850- 925 mb low level jet has kept sfc winds mixed between 10 and 20 mph sustained. Weak upslope flow combined with sunny skies should allow for an overall warmer afternoon to end the weekend with readings from the upper 60s in north central KS to the lower 60s over most of east central and northeast Kansas. Pacific northwest upper trough surges into the Inter Mountain west on Monday as lee cyclogenesis in eastern CO induces a very tight pressure gradient over all of Kansas Monday afternoon. Gusty winds may sustain from 15 to 25 mph Monday evening as a stout cold front pushes southeast through the region.
/issued 345 AM CDT Sun Mar 28 2021/ WV imagery shows the upper trough moving through West Texas and Southeast New Mexico this morning, w/a ridge moving in from the western CONUS to replace it. High-based -SHRA developed ahead of the trough last night, kicking off a slew of virga bombs, mainly over the Permian Basin. A cold front accompanied the trough, and sfc observations at 08Z indicate it has crossed the river. Temps behind the cold front today will be around 5F below normal.
630 AM CDT Sun Mar 28 2021 310 AM CDT A surface cold front has just cleared my northwestern IN counties. In the wake of this front, very breezy and much cooler conditions can be expected today. However, some parts of far northeastern IL and northwestern IN could still yet experience a brief light shower early this morning as the upper trough axis shifts overhead. For our weather this will mean a quick return to warmer weather, but at the expense of some very gusty and dry southerly winds. Temperatures look to warm back into the low to mid 60s for Monday, but the strong southerly winds and dry conditions will be the main story. Also of note is the forecasted minimum afternoon relative humidity values in the low to mid 30 percent range Monday afternoon.