Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
400 AM CDT SUN JUL 24 2016 Two upper highs over the southern conus this morning. The major large scale supressive upper high over west Tx will eventually absorb this mesoscale upper high and move back over the Southwest. The synoptic scale upper high over west Tx is the main steering current for all these disturbances bringing them out of the desert southwest into the central conus then down into our area. The first has already broke away from its parent upper trough over the east coast and is now on its way across Fl.
447 AM CDT SUN JUL 24 2016 At 3 AM, a weak trough of low pressure extended from western KS to southern NM. At 300 mb, an expansive ridge of high pressure was centered over NE NM but it's reach remains very broad extending from S CA to the FL panhandle. That said, have trended PoPs lower for today since the ridge is in nearly the same position it was 24 hours ago, feel subsidence may be a bit stronger as advertised by the GFS. An inverted 500 mb trough will be approaching from the east but the mid level flow between the ridge out west and the trough over the Gulf will bring a strong disturbance into the area from the northeast. Will keep rain chances going Monday night as the inverted trough over the Gulf pushes west.
The best chance for showers and thunderstorms will return on Monday with the passage of a weak cold front.
In addition, a small upper low located over Arkansas will move slowly west and southwest today into Monday bringing some rain chances to parts of southeast Oklahoma. All of this will result in better rain chances across the area on Monday, and with increased cloud cover and possible precip, some slightly cooler temperatures.
Current visible satellite shows a ridge axis across Kentucky, with slow flow of the cloud field pivoting around that axis roughly along a line from Beaver Dam to Elizabethtown to Richmond. Monday we should see dewpoints inch up another degree or two, but lower thicknesses due to an approaching trough should limit us from reaching the higher heat indices of this weekend.
08z data showing the cold front pushing southeast across MN, running from the Twin Cities down to KFRM. Cool high pressure begins to build in tonight.
231 AM CDT SUN JUL 24 2016 Temps at 230 am across the cwa were in the low/mid 70s with low 70 dewpoints. The early mrng wx map shows a weak upper low centered over west central MS while a large upper high extends across much of the swrn US.
Temperatures and dewpoints are cooling behind a cold frontal boundary located from roughly KHJH to KGCK. A cooler, more seasonal airmass will settle across our region and temperatures will be more typical for this time of year with highs in the mid 80s to lower 90s. Heading into tonight another round of convection is possible in the vicinity of the boundary to the south and along the high plains aided by upslope flow and this activity may affect portions of our southern zones. Generally zonal flow in the upper levels is expected to be in place to start of the period Monday morning, as broad ridging sits over the desert SW/Rockies and a trough slides through the Great Lakes region.
However, today will still see the ridge extending into the area.
The breaking down of the upper ridge has allowed significant mid and high cloud into the area, with periodic scattered convection developing. Surface observations showing weak cold front pushing southeast into the state with modest though persistent pressure rises behind it.
345 AM CDT SUN JUL 24 2016 Regional obs this morning showing no lack of llvl moisture with sfc dew points in the low/mid 70s spread across the CWA just ahead of the leading edge of a cold front currently extending from about swrn MN to wrn KS. Low level moisture return begins in earnest Monday night advecting up along the high plains with TSRA development mainly over the wrn SD within waa regime with upper level support implied via Qvect convg.
Meanwhile the cold front currently stretching from eastern MN through IA will shift east reaching the Rockford area early this afternoon. The atmosphere should recover enough for storms to sprout along the cold front. Therefore expecting a scattered storms to develop ahead of the cold front with a more solid line of storms along the front. JEE 318 AM CDT Any lingering storms dissipate early Monday morning as cooler and drier air spread across the region along with high pressure.
Dewpoint readings already into the lower 60s west of the James River, and trend downward likely to continue today with northwesterly flow continuing to feed in drier air, albeit a fairly slow change across northwest Iowa. Positively tilted upper trough will continue to progress eastward through the northern Plains, with secondary wave from Montana to Wyoming shearing through during the midday and afternoon pulling jet entrance region across the area. High pressure will settle into the heart of the area overnight, allowing for the coolest night in nearly a week. Monday: As high pressure slides southeast on Monday, we'll continue to see a very pleasant day, albeit a touch on the warm side.
More cloud cover and precipitation coverage through the upcoming week will keep temperatures slightly cooler than what we have had this week, enough to keep out of heat products at this time.
Swamp cooler users should rejoice as they will slowly become more efficient. The dry trend will continue through the workweek as a ridge of high pressure keeps the main plume of moisture to our south. With isolated-scattered late-day showers and thunderstorms confined to the higher terrain and across the south.
551 AM EDT SUN JUL 24 2016 High pressure will build into the region today and will move east by Monday morning. A warm front will lift toward the region later Monday and will be followed by a cold front Monday night.
314 AM CDT SUN JUL 24 2016 Another couple of hot days ahead before cooler temperatures and a better chance of rain arrive midweek. The upper ridge will continue moving off to the west this week, but not before we see temperatures near 100 both today and Monday. The upper ridge will move far enough west that northerly mid level flow may allow for convection to move south from the Panhandle late tomorrow. An inverted trough now over the Western Atlantic will begin shifting west and arrive in Texas late Monday. The trough moves closer to our area midweek and rain chances look to increase quite a bit.
Upstream observations show dewpoints falling into the low to mid-60s behind the boundary though these may moderate a bit during the daytime as local evapotranspiration kicks in.
1123 PM MDT SAT JUL 23 2016 cooler high pressure has moved over the area and will remain in place through Sunday. across the north and east a dry cold front will move south and west sunday with a wind shift to the northeast. with clear skies and very low dew points cooler lows are expected by sunrise.
Elevated instability spreads over the region too, with low pressure organizing west of the region.
A weak disturbance moves eastward from Idaho, developing an 850 mb trough over eastern Montana.
649 AM EDT SUN JUL 24 2016 Atlantic high pressure will prevail through much of the week while a weak trough persists inland. Today: The area will remain between Atlantic high pressure to the east and an inland trough east of the mountains. Tonight: Any lingering convection should diminish early with mostly dry conditions overnight as upper level low pressure to the south moves west into the Gulf of Mexico. Lows will mostly range from the mid 70s inland to near 80 at the coast, although some of the normally cooler inland spots could reach the lower 70s. Fairly quiet weather expected through the period as broad mid/upper level ridging maintains influence over the local area. The surface pattern will be rather stagnant, with Atlantic high pressure the dominant feature and a weak trough inland.
Most high-res models indicate that the storm coverage may decrease as the low-level jet weakens after sunrise; however, will keep low-end PoPs going through the morning in case a few isolated showers attempt to linger along the front and/or outflow from early morning activity. The highest potential for storms will occur as the nocturnal LLJ once again increases tonight and becomes superimposed with the upper forcing, and the area may become more broad as lift becomes elevated and the surface boundary becomes less of a focus. Areas that do see more sun than clouds today will heat efficiently and combine with increased low-level moisture to result in very high heat indices this afternoon; possibly producing the highest readings seen in the KC metro in the last several days if the sun does make an appearance this afternoon.
temperatures continue to climb through the week as the upper level zonal flow pattern slowly develops into a upper ridge pattern the latter half of the week. the thermal trough then deepens on the coast with offshore flow increasing as well as northerly winds in the coastal waters.
High pressure will build over the Northern Rockies today into Monday leading to dry and warmer weather.
A cold frontal zone shifting slowly south in conjunction with weak/subtle upper disturbances approaching from the west will be the focus for hit-or-miss showers/thunderstorms today-tonight across the region.
454 AM EDT SUN JUL 24 2016 A cold front over the upper midwest will move southeast across our area tonight and Sunday. Scattered thunderstorms are possible along and ahead of the cold front through Monday.
204 AM PDT SUN JUL 24 2016 Hot and dry conditions with mainly light late day breezes are expected for the upcoming week as strong high pressure builds into the Great Basin. Very dry conditions will continue with humidity values in the single digits during the day, and poor humidity recovery in mid slope and ridge top locations for the next few nights. Model soundings don't indicate the extreme low 700 mb dew points compared to recent nights, so ridge top sites appear less likely to dip into the single digits during the overnight or early morning hours.
Next lee trof approaches Mon, with increasing southerly winds bringing moisture back to the area and chances of thunderstorms. Temperatures will be cooler today with increased cloud cover, then warmer Mon.
Upper ridge sprawled from plains eastward across our area will begin to retrograde today allowing for troughing to develop over eastern U.
Temps in the lower elevations will be near normal today and then rise 5 to 10 degrees tomorrow.
(Issued 943 PM CDT SAT JUL 23 2016) A strong upper level ridge (a tad weaker than the past few days with maximum heights in the 596 decameter range across the southern Rockies/Desert SW) continued to bring a light northerly flow aloft over this forecast area.
In addition, the low-level jet has veered into the area supplying a continuous feed of moisture into the area from the southwest. A warm front across the far southern part of the forecast area will produce at least scattered storms as it lifts northeast during the late afternoon and early evening, but extensive high clouds and an east southeast surface wind is holding temperatures down north of the front and will probably limit severe potential. An upper trough moving across Minnesota should produce a thunderstorm complex that moves across the forecast area during the middle to late evening hours. A weak cold front will move through Sunday by midday. There is not much cool air behind but more of a lowering of dewpoints, which will make it feel a bit cooler by Sunday evening.
A cold front will sag south toward Central Indiana tonight and pass across the states on Monday.
314 AM EDT SUN JUL 24 2016 High pressure will build into the region today and will move east by Monday morning. A warm front will lift toward the region later Monday and will be followed by a cold front Monday night.
431 AM EDT SUN JUL 24 2016 An upper level ridge will allow for continued hot and humid conditions through the weekend. A cold front will move through the region on Monday, bringing with it an enhanced chance of thunderstorms.
339 AM EDT SUN JUL 24 2016 Water vapor animation early this morning shows an upper Low spinning just off the coast of the south central Florida peninsula. It also shows drier air embedded within this Low. The Low will retrograde westward across the Florida peninsula today and then move into the Gulf of Mexico this evening. The driest air, associated with the upper Low, will set up across eastern parts of northeast Florida with PWATs checking in comfortably below average. The seabreeze will hold max temps in the lower 90s at the beaches. An upper level low will open up into a trough as it moves west northwest across the northeastern Gulf and into the deep south.
Strong high pressure will bring a significant warming trend into the coming week with temperatures approaching the triple digits across the interior. High pressure aloft will gradually build over the desert SW over the next few days, with high temperatures at many interior locations exceeding 100 degrees for the next 3-5 days.
645 AM EDT SUN JUL 24 2016 A cold front over the upper midwest will move southeast across our area tonight and Sunday. Scattered thunderstorms are possible along and ahead of the cold front through Monday.
High pressure at all levels will allow plenty of sun with 850mb temps 15-16C and 925mb of 18-19c suggest mid 80s and much of guidance has low 80s. Upper Ridge dampens and passes FA with some embedded energy, return flow aloft and deep moisture thus chance of showers and possible elevated convection toward Monday morning which will complicate matters for Monday.
Upper ridging will remain the dominant factor across the region as it shifts around slightly the next several days. This helps nudge the ridge from southeast with two distinct ridge centers forming, one off the east coast and the other near the desert southwest.
17 An upper level ridge will continue across the southern Appalachians Monday night and this should keep showers and thunderstorms mainly diurnal. However the NAM continues pops after midnight with greater moisture under the ridge.
A northern stream trough extended from sctrl Montana into western North Dakota. weak high pressure will extend from the Dakotas into Nebraska as the surface front becomes more east-west oriented across central Kansas. Highs today will be 5 to 15 degrees cooler from 85 to 89 degrees with lower dewpoints in the mid to upper 50s. It should be a dry day across western and north central Nebraska, with pops to our north across parts of South Dakota from the northern stream trough, to our south near the stalled surface front in Kansas, and also along the front range where easterly upslope flow will exist.
627 AM EDT SUN JUL 24 2016 Hot high pressure remain over the region through the week with above normal temperatures. Mainly diurnal scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected trough mid-week. A mid/upper level ridge will continue to extend eastward from the southern plains into the Carolinas. A weak upper low off the east coast of FL will retrograde westward into the Gulf of Mexico. The mid/upper level heights fall slightly for Monday as a trough crosses the Great Lakes region. The GFS indicate even warmer temperatures aloft with H500 mb temperatures minus 3C to minus 4C. High temperatures are forecast to be a couple of degrees cooler for Monday.
Early morning GOES water vapor imagery showed a broad upper level height ridge across the southern half the CONUS. This upper ridge had deamplified from its position over the central plains several days ago. In addition, a weak nearly stationary easterly wave and extensive mid/upper level cloudiness was present over the lower MS River valley.
Dewpoint temperatures in the lower to mid 70s are forecast to spread across the eastern two-thirds of South-Central Texas through the period.
308 AM CDT SUN JUL 24 2016 Upper level ridge will continue to exert its influence on the region although slightly less so today. This upper ridge will advance westward today allowing thickness values to drop ever so slightly. Furthermore, the added moisture may keep temperatures a degree or two cooler. A short wave rotating around the northeast side of the ridge tonight will make its way into West Texas early Monday morning. The center of the upper ridge that has been locked overhead for the past week is moving westward which will allow temperatures to moderate and thunderstorm chances to return to the region starting Monday. will show the subtropical ridge split with centers toward the southeast part of the country and over the the southwest.
Clearing occurs overnight with a mild and benign day ahead for Sunday, as highs top out in the low to middle 80s.
The possibility is good for late afternoon redevelopment as the cold front pushes farther south toward central Kansas.
412 AM EDT SUN JUL 24 2016 Atlantic high pressure will prevail through much of the week while a weak trough persists inland. Today: The area will remain between Atlantic high pressure to the east and an inland trough east of the mountains. Tonight: Any lingering convection should diminish early with mostly dry conditions overnight as upper level low pressure to the south moves west into the Gulf of Mexico. Lows will mostly range from the mid 70s inland to near 80 at the coast, although some of the normally cooler inland spots could reach the lower 70s. Fairly quiet weather expected through the period as broad mid/upper level ridging maintains influence over the local area. The surface pattern will be rather stagnant, with Atlantic high pressure the dominant feature and a weak trough inland.
Have an upper low/trough moving over the state through Sunday, which may bring a little lower coverage of storms Sunday, but will still see scattered afternoon and evening storms. Generally SE flow in place across the waters with high pressure ridging across the area.
356 AM CDT SUN JUL 24 2016 (Today and Tonight) An upper level ridge is still in place across the Desert Southwest, and extends to the east into the Southern Plains this morning.
440 AM EDT SUN JUL 24 2016 Hot high pressure remain over the region through the week with above normal temperatures. Mainly diurnal scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected trough mid-week. A mid/upper level ridge will continue to extend eastward from the southern plains into the Carolinas. A weak upper low off the east coast of FL will retrograde westward into the Gulf of Mexico. The mid/upper level heights fall slightly for Monday as a trough crosses the Great Lakes region. The GFS indicate even warmer temperatures aloft with H500 mb temperatures minus 3C to minus 4C. High temperatures are forecast to be a couple of degrees cooler for Monday.
Slightly cooler temperatures are forecast for inland areas on Sunday and Monday as high pressure over California weakens slightly.
The upper level pattern is currently dominated by a sprawling ridge of high pressure extending from the desert southwest through the Mid-Atlantic coast, while a TUTT low moves southwest from the Atlantic into southern Florida. This TUTT will bring cooler mid- level temperatures into the forecast area this afternoon, but will also pull drier air into the northern half of the Florida Peninsula. As a result, the drier air should slightly suppress the scattered storms north of Interstate 4 this afternoon, although the cooler mid-level temperatures south of Interstate 4 could allow for a few stronger storms to develop. Temperatures will remain near to a couple degrees above normal, with highs in the low 90s, except for some upper 80s along the coast. Lows tonight will range from the low 70s inland to upper 70s along the coast.
The center of an upper anticyclone within the subtropical ridge will consolidate back over the Desert Southwest during the next several days. That will allow weak troughing to develop over the eastern CONUS, and the upper flow across the forecast area to tilt west-northwesterly. Compared to yesterday, most guidance is a little more supportive of convective redevelopment later today before the cold front clears the area.
good daytime heating is expected and the upper level low is expected to move closer to the region. The upper level low that is in the gulf south of NEW is expected to be located south of Sabine pass by Monday afternoon.
357 AM CDT SUN JUL 24 2016 A cold front was over the far eastern zones and will move out of the area this morning. Also the water vapor loop indicated a weak upper trough over southern ALTA moving southeast. Upper level trough over the northern BC coast will move across central Canada Mon night and will send a cold front into the northern Red River Valley Tue night. before a SW ridge sets up on Sunday and provides a break to the active pattern.
A few thunderstorms affected the Keys near the Seven Mile Bridge past midnight, but these dissipated. Temperatures were able to drop to the low 80s and winds were light and variable.
Focus will be on the possibility of storms firing within the next few hours ahead of an advancing cold front. If storms do manage to increase to our north, these models suggest that thunderstorms may congeal into an MCS this evening, potentially impacting the highway 14 corridor, southwest Minnesota, and Iowa Great Lakes region through late evening. Cooler temperatures and lower dewpoints arrive behind the front, bringing a nice reprieve from the recent heat. Skies will be mostly clear to partly cloudy on Sunday with cooler high temperatures in the 80s. Enough return of instability and moisture to produce storms along the Missouri River seems highly unlikely as the low level and upper ridge moves across our area to the north.
Strengthening high pressure aloft across the region will generate very warm and generally dry conditions across Utah throughout the upcoming week.
Showers should develop Monday night due to a northeast moving warm front, and weak support aloft.
Overnight lows tonight will be similar or a tad warmer than last night with increased cloud cover and slightly higher surface dew points.
Min temps will be in the lower to mid 40s inland areas and mid to upper 50s along the panhandle coast.
Will see slightly warmer lows tonight as southeast flow begins to return moisture to the area.
The cold front that is moving into northwest Wisconsin is expected to stall over central WI by late tonight.
The net result is High Plains lee troughing. Warmer temperatures are also expected across far southwest Kansas with the warm air advection pattern.
Showers will diminish tonight as an upper level low dissipates over northern Oregon this evening. An upper trough will move across Washington Monday afternoon and evening.
/issued 706 PM EST Sun Feb 26 2017/ A cold front has moved out of the area.
835 PM EST Sun Feb 26 2017 High pressure will return to the area tonight and Monday.
Should see west-southwest sfc winds picking up speed through the evening over the high elevations with the cross mtn wind component approaching 45 kts by late tonight. Swly flow aloft will continue to strengthen as the upper trough nears the state. mid-level moisture will begin spreading over northwest portions of the forecast area during the afternoon ahead of the trough with scattered showers developing over higher elevations.
As the main trough moves into the area more stratiform snow will take over. Both the high resolution short term models and the larger scale models continue to track a jet streak over southern Montana.
1040 PM EST Sun Feb 26 2017 High pressure centered over West Virginia will move off the Mid Atlantic Coast on Monday.
Inherited forecast looks to be in pretty good shape for tonight as the next upper trough start to drop down out of the Pacific Northwest into northern Nevada.
The first part of the week will be unsettled as a low pressure area moves through the state.
731 PM EST Sun Feb 26 2017 High pressure will pass south of Pennsylvania tonight, then off the east coast Monday.