Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
453 AM MST SUN DEC 20 2015 THE SHORT TERM PERIOD REMAINS WARMER THAN AVERAGE AND DRY. A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH ALOFT LIFTS OUT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING TO BE FOLLOWED BY A STRONGER SHORT WAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE UPPER FLOW LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THIS IS ALL ON THE HEELS OF A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF MAINLY THE SOUTHWESTERN SECTIONS SEEING A SPRINKLE OR FLURRY THIS EVENING AS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH ALOFT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. ANOTHER FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE TROUGH ALOFT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION EARLY MONDAY WITH WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
MVFR cigs will also spread across all sites from the south in response to increased moisture ahead of a cold front. Strong Sub-tropical upper jet streak ahead of wave should provide enough lift for isolated showers this afternoon with slightly better precipitation coverage tonight across SE OK/NW AR as low level moisture continues to increase ahead of cold front.
604 AM CST SUN DEC 20 2015 SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING SEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES TO MUCH OF THE REGION SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER MONDAY WITH AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE LURKING OVER THE REGION.
554 AM CST SUN DEC 20 2015 MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE ON DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE POTENTIAL LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WAS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW BRINGING WARMER TEMPERATURES INTO THE AREA.
849 AM EST SUN DEC 20 2015 AN IMMENSE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ENGULFS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THE GRADIENT AROUND THIS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IS PRODUCING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS THROUGH THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL TREK EASTWARD TODAY AND TONIGHT. WITH THE MID AND LOWER LEVEL RIDGE SLIDING EASTWARD IN ITS WAKE. THE LOW LEVEL TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTHWARD AND BACK OVER THE THE KEYS AREA THIS EVENING. THE LARGE AND ROBUST AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT FEATURE IN OUR FORECAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.
A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FAST MOVING SYSTEM WILL PUSH ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA TODAY WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES A GOOD 5 TO 10 DEGREES LOWER THAN ON SATUDAY. MODELS ARE PROMISING FAIR WEATHER AS A FAST MOVING HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE STATE. LOOK FOR A BIT WARMER TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
546 AM CST SUN DEC 20 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL RAPIDLY LIFT OUT OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AND INTO THE PLAINS LATER TODAY. EXPECT THE COLD FRONT ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA TO RAPIDLY ADVANCE SOUTHWARD. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAYS WARM READINGS. WITH BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS OVERTAKING THE AREA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA.
118 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2015 A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
THIS SHOULD RESULT IN SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT. AND SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS ON WEDNESDAY WITH A HIGH IN THE MIDDLE 80S FOR MOST OF THE AREA.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD WEST OF THE REGION TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. MORE CLOUD COVER AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION WILL KEEP THINGS A BIT COOLER ON THURSDAY.
THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS HAS A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN 2/3 OF THE CONUS. WITH AN UPPER LOW SPINNING JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A FEW MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE STREAMING OVER THE RIDGE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE AREA WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST WILL DRIVE SOUTHWARD OFFSHORE THROUGH THURSDAY. A BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE INTERIOR WEST MAINTAINING DRY WEATHER AND WARMING TEMPERATURES THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.
UPPER LEVEL LOW TO OUR NORTH WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A STRATUS DECK INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL GENERALLY MEAN GOING ON THE LOWER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR DAYTIME HIGHS. AND ON THE WARMER SIDE FOR NIGHTTIME LOWS. DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION LIFTS OUT THIS PERIOD. UPPER TROUGH LIFTS OUT. THIS EVOLVES INTO A WELL DEFINED UPPER RIDGE HOLDING OVER THE WESTERN U. AND A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. LEAVING A WEAKNESS BETWEEN THESE UPPER RIDGES OVER THE EASTERN U.
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WILL PROVIDE A DRY NORTHERLY FLOW. 75 A LATE SUMMER COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH CENTRAL ALABAMA AND NORTHERLY WINDS WILL USHER IN DRIER AND COOLER AIR THROUGH WEDNESDAY. /ISSUED 217 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015/ MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS IN PLACE TODAY. TEMPERATURES JUST NOW REACHING THE LOW 80S ACROSS THE NORTH WITH MID TO UPPER 80S SOUTH.
FEWER CLOUDS WILL RESULT IN WARMER WEATHER WEDNESDAY.
618 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015 Quiet weather pattern persisting this afternoon as upper ridging continues to build across the Central and Northern Rockies. although a degree or two warmer as 850-hPa temps continue to moderate through the overnight period. Much of the same on Wednesday with high pressure once again providing a pleasant and seasonal day. Next weather feature of interest expected to start impacting the area early Thursday morning as a weak warm front slowly approaches from the west.
139 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2015 A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE WILL PROVIDE COOL TEMPERATURES AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
LARGE AREA OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT FROM THE PLAINS AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. AFTER HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON IN THE MID-UPPER 70S, TEMPERATURES BY LATE EVENING WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 50S TO THE LOWER 60S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL LIKELY DROP INTO THE LOW-MID 50S IN MOST AREAS. A FEW OF OUR COOLER SPOTS WILL LIKELY REACH THE UPPER 40S ONCE AGAIN. TRANQUIL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS WE REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE. HIGHS WEDNESDAY MAY BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN TODAY WITH READINGS GENERALLY IN THE MID- UPPER 70S, THOUGH SOME LOW 80S WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN KY.
(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT) LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER TROUGH WAS SPREADING SOUTH OVER THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE GULF. AS WE GO INTO WEDNESDAY THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION. UNDER GOOD INSOLATION HIGHS WILL RUN FROM THE LOWER 80S NORTHEAST TO THE UPPER 80S WEST AND SOUTH. FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT IT WILL NOT BE AS COOL WITH LOWS FROM THE UPPER 50S TO THE LOWER 60S. FOR THURSDAY NIGHT TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE MILDER WITH READINGS IN THE LOWER 60S.
1022 PM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015 A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE WILL PROVIDE COOL TEMPERATURES AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
BROAD UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING EXTENDS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE US THIS AFTERNOON. RECENT WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A PLUME OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE LIFTING NORTH OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE RIDGE. MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STILL EXPECTED FROM WED AFTN THROUGH THU WITH THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG PACIFIC COLD FRONT AND VIGOROUS MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH. MUCH COOLER FOR THU AS MOST OF THE MODELS SHOW H7 TEMPS PLUNGING FROM +16 C AT 00Z THU.
ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN AN UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE STATE HAS PRODUCED WIDESPREAD RAIN AND NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS TODAY.
856 PM MDT TUE AUG 25 2015 HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE REGION. DB /ISSUED 530 PM MDT TUE AUG 25 2015/ HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE INTERIOR WESTERN US WILL MAINTAIN WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR NORTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA. THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO FLATTEN ON THURSDAY AS ANOTHER WEAK WAVE EJECTS FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
1024 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015 06Z TAF CYCLE UPPER HIGH OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES WILL BUILD EAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE PANHANDLES FROM THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES AROUND 00Z TO 06Z THURSDAY WITH CONVECTION POSSIBLY DEVELOPING TO THE WEST OF THE THREE TAF SITES LATE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND COULD POSSIBLY IMPACT THE DALHART TAF SITE WITH SOME CONSIDERABLE HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WEDNESDAY EVENING. /ISSUED 635 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015/ 00Z TAF CYCLE UPPER HIGH OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL BUILD EAST AND SOUTH THROUGH WEDNESDAY OVER THE PANHANDLES BY 00Z THURSDAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ANCHORED OVER AZ/NM AND EXTENDING INTO HIGH PLAINS.
635 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015 00Z TAF CYCLE UPPER HIGH OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL BUILD EAST AND SOUTH THROUGH WEDNESDAY OVER THE PANHANDLES BY 00Z THURSDAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ANCHORED OVER AZ/NM AND EXTENDING INTO HIGH PLAINS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER SOUTH FLORIDA REST OF THIS WEEK. AS A WEAK COLD FRONT OVER NORTH FLORIDA BECOMES STATIONARY. A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS WILL MOVE NORTHWARD THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA AND INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA BEFORE WASHING OUT.
COOLER TEMPERATURES PREVAILED WITH HIGHS SO FAR ONLY RISING INTO LOW/MID 70S MOUNTAINS TO THE LOW/MID 80S VALLEYS. LOW PRESSURE OVER SE CANADA (NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES) HAS PRODUCED TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS. WHILE A MONSOON MOISTURE-LADEN RIDGING PREVAILED ACROSS THE DESERT SW. THE CANADIAN UPPER LOW DURING THE COURSE OF THE WEEK WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND SHIFT SOMEWHAT FURTHER TO THE NORTH. UPPER RIDGING OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC SHOULD EXERT ITS INFLUENCE FURTHER TO THE WEST. DAILY HIGH/LOW READINGS IN THE LOWER 80S SHOULD RISE INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S BY THE WEEKEND.
125 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2015 A LARGE AND VERY SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL IMPACT THE NORTH COUNTRY RIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
645 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015 LARGE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN ACROSS EASTERN ONTARIO. WITH MOST LOCATIONS SEEING LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. CENTRAL/SE IL STILL CAUGHT UP IN CYCLONIC FLOW ANOTHER DAY ON WED WITH FEW-SCT CUMULUS CLOUDS NE CWA WED AFTERNOON NNW WINDS NOT AS GUSTY AS TODAY AND YESTERDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE NEARS IL. STAYED CLOSE TO SIMILAR GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS NEXT FEW DAYS AND SIDED TOWARD COOLER LOWS IN LOW TO MID 50S WED NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS AND FAIR SKIES.
75 A LATE SUMMER COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH CENTRAL ALABAMA AND NORTHERLY WINDS WILL USHER IN DRIER AND COOLER AIR THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
/ISSUED 942 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015/ 9 PM CDT SURFACE MAP SHOWED A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGED EXTENDING FROM WESTERN ONTARIO SOUTHWARD TO THE SABINE RIVER VALLEY OF TX/LA. 9 PM TEMPS WERE RUNNING 2 TO 3 DEGREES COOLER THAN 24 HOURS EARLIER OVER NORTHWEST TN. 2 TO 3 DEGREES WARMER OVER NORTHEAST AR. AND 1 TO 2 DEGREES COOLER OVER NORTH MS. THE MEMPHIS METRO WILL LIKELY BE A DEGREE OR SO WARMER. HIGHS ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO BE A DEGREE OR SO WARMER RESULTING IN AFTERNOON HIGHS 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND WARMER.
ADDED PATCHY FOG IN RIVER VALLEYS AFTER 08Z IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN PARTS OF THE CWA UNDER THE RIDGE AXIS.
817 PM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015 LINGERING CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEP LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF TONIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S. ALREADY BEGINNING TO SEE THE TROF AXIS SHIFTING AND NARROWING AS RIDGING STARTS BUILDING TO THE WEST. ANOMALOUSLY COLD SYSTEM FOR THIS PERIOD WITH SEVERAL SHORT WAVES AND WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARIES ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE TROF. AS THE TROF BEGINS TO LIFT EAST. THIS WAVE WILL TRAVERSE THE RIDGE AND AMPLIFY IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES BY THURSDAY.
1057 PM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015 A WEAK COLD FRONT SLOWLY CROSSES THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE TRI- STATE OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIODS AS HIGH PRESSURE IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE DOMINATES THE LOCAL WEATHER PATTERN. AS LOW PRESSURE THEN EXPECT INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS TO ADVECT WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR NORTHWARD. THE GFS SOLUTION WOULD PROVIDE PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON THURSDAY WHEREAS THE NAM SUGGESTS A GOOD PORTION OF THE DAY WILL REMAIN DRY WITH CHCS INCREASING LATE AFTN/EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES. BUT HAVE TRENDED READINGS UP IN THE WAA AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. EXPECT THE BETTER PCPN CHCS TO ARRIVE LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT AND UPPER WAVE REACH OUR CWA.
515 PM MDT TUE AUG 25 2015 EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL ROCKIES. AT THE SURFACE LEE TROUGH IS IN PLACE ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO WITH MAIN AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS SE COLORADO INTO SW KANSAS. CONVECTIVE INITIATION WILL MAINLY BE ALONG TROUGH AXIS AND ALONG HIGHER TERRAIN IN COLORADO (WEST OF OUR CWA.
Overnight lows will generally be in the low to mid 70s. (Thursday through Wednesday) The upper level high pressure will continue to strengthen and migrate east toward West Central Texas over the next few days. GFS 850mb temperatures show an intrusion of warmer air over the Concho Valley and Big Country.
MAINLY SOUTH OF I-70 AND OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. A FEW CELLS ARE LINGERING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND WILL EXTEND POPS INTO THE LATE EVENING HOURS FOR THIS. HAVE SEEN ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY AND THEN DRIFT SOUTHWARD. MODELS HAVE AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS CENTERED OVER EASTERN COLORADO WEDNESDAY EVENING. THEN A WEAK UPPER TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS COLORADO INTO MID DAY THURSDAY.
TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT UPPER RIDGE PERSISTS OVER THE WESTERN 2/3 OF THE CONUS. WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER CO/NM AND NEXT UPPER WAVE NOW MOVING THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. 700MB LOW IS PROGGED TO CLOSE OFF EARLY THURSDAY MORNING OVER WESTERN SD WITH COOLER AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW. HIGHS WILL BE TRICKY ON THURSDAY DEPENDING ON THE EFFECT OF THE COOLER AIR DURING PEAK HEATING TIME.
ALTHOUGH A VERY ISLTD -SHRA CANNOT BE RULED OUT BETWEEN NOW AND 06Z MAINLY AT LCH/BPT AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES SW. THIS DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO OVER TAKE THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AS A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED OVER THE FAR NORTHERN PLAINS CONTINUES TO BUILD IN. THIS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS KEEPING THE GULF CUT OFF AND A DRY CONTINENTAL AIR MASS IN PLACE.
338 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2015 THE LAST IN A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.
/ISSUED 345 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015/ THE COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT HAS MADE GOOD STRIDES UNDER ALL THE CLOUDS AS HEATING TENDS TO SLOW FRONTS IN THE DAYTIME.
PLEASANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RESIDES OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY.
THE MEMPHIS METRO WILL LIKELY BE A DEGREE OR SO WARMER. HIGHS ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO BE A DEGREE OR SO WARMER RESULTING IN AFTERNOON HIGHS 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND WARMER.
LOW PRESSURE OVER JAMES BAY WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS SLOWLY SPREADS EAST TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL TURN MORE NORTHERLY ACROSS THE LAKE LATER TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE HIGH APPROACHES. WHILE TEMPS SHOULD WARM INTO THE LOWER/MID 70S WEDNESDAY. WINDS TURN NORTHEAST OFF LAKE MICHIGAN AND TEMPS COULD COOL INTO THE LOWER/MID 60S NEAR THE LAKE BY EVENING. TEMPS WARM BACK INTO THE UPPER 70S THURSDAY BUT EASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THE LAKESHORE AREAS COOLER.
CLOUD COVER AND SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. EXCEPT FOR A SMALL CHANCE LATE IN THE EVENING MAINLY WEST OF THE HIGHWAY 52 CORRIDOR.
1127 PM MDT TUE AUG 25 2015 AN UPR RIDGE REMAINS OVR THE AREA TODAY AND SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON. ON WED THE UPR RIDGE REMAINS OVR THE AREA BUT A DISTURBANCE WL MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD FROM SWRN CO TO NORTH CENTRAL CO DURING THE DAY. REST OF THE PERIOD MAINLY HOT AND DRY FOR THE LOWLANDS.
1127 PM MDT TUE AUG 25 2015 EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL ROCKIES. AT THE SURFACE LEE TROUGH IS IN PLACE ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO WITH MAIN AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS SE COLORADO INTO SW KANSAS. CONVECTIVE INITIATION WILL MAINLY BE ALONG TROUGH AXIS AND ALONG HIGHER TERRAIN IN COLORADO (WEST OF OUR CWA.
UPPER LEVEL HIGH CONTINUES TO BE CENTERED JUST WEST OF THE AREA YIELDING A NORTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE LARGE SCALE FLOW.
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN OVER THE CONUS WAS HIGHLIGHTED BY A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN THIRD. AND A STEADILY AMPLIFYING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WAS BEGINNING TO DIG INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL KEEP THE LOCAL WEATHER FAIRLY QUIET THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THIS WILL KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT MUCH WARMER THAN THE WELL BELOW NORMAL LOWS EXPERIENCED OVER THE PREVIOUS COUPLE DAYS. BUT NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WOULD STEER ANY CONVECTION SOUTH OF THE CWA AS IT MOVES OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. AGEOSTROPHIC ADJUSTMENT TO THE BREAKDOWN OF THE RIDGE WILL CAUSE 700MB WINDS TO BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY AND INCREASE TO AOA 30KTS. HOWEVER BROADSCALE LIFT FROM UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH SUFFICIENT FOR 30 TO 50 POPS MOST AREAS.
MAY ALSO SHOW A BIT MORE OF A RANGE FOR MINS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN SINCE A FEW SPOTS DID RECORD MINS IN THE 40S THIS MORNING. CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 58 83 63 84 / 0 0 0 0 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 58 82 60 83 / 0 0 0 0 OAK RIDGE, TN 57 82 60 83 / 0 0 0 0 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 53 80 56 81 / 0 0 0 0.
RANGING FROM THE LOW TO MID 40S IN RURAL AREAS TO LOWER 50S IN THE TWIN CITIES.
942 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015 9 PM CDT SURFACE MAP SHOWED A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGED EXTENDING FROM WESTERN ONTARIO SOUTHWARD TO THE SABINE RIVER VALLEY OF TX/LA. 9 PM TEMPS WERE RUNNING 2 TO 3 DEGREES COOLER THAN 24 HOURS EARLIER OVER NORTHWEST TN. 2 TO 3 DEGREES WARMER OVER NORTHEAST AR. AND 1 TO 2 DEGREES COOLER OVER NORTH MS. THE MEMPHIS METRO WILL LIKELY BE A DEGREE OR SO WARMER. HIGHS ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO BE A DEGREE OR SO WARMER RESULTING IN AFTERNOON HIGHS 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND WARMER.
358 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD THROUGH THURSDAY.
/ISSUED 243 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015/ A DOMINANT UPPER RIDGE WILL ALL BUT STAY PUT ACROSS THE WEST-CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE NATION. SUBSIDENCE FROM THE EASTERN REACHES OF THE RIDGE WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP TEMPERATURES SEASONABLY WARM OVER THE COURSE OF THE WEEK. CONDITIONS ALL TOO COMMON FOR AUGUST ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS THE 4-CORNERS RIDGE TAKES CONTROL AND DRIER AIR WORKS ITS WAY INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE LAYERS OF THE ATMOSPHERE.
THE UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN ONTARIO AND THE CORRESPONDING LOW PRESSURE NEAR JAMES BAY WILL FINALLY SHIFT EAST TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. DIMINISHING CLOUDS TONIGHT WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE LOWER 50S INLAND FROM LAKE MICHIGAN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL STILL BE IN CONTROL DURING THIS PERIOD.
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE THAT WAS SOUTH OF JAMES BAY IS NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE MUCH OVERNIGHT BUT SHOULD WEAKEN AS IT STARTS TO MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS QUEBEC ON WEDNESDAY. LOW CLOUDS IN CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE LOW SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT AND BEGIN TO EXIT DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. DECREASING CLOUDS ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO GET SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN THEY WERE TODAY.
155 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015 HIGH PRESSURE HAS NOW EXTENDED ALONG THE MS RIVER VALLEY FROM MINNESOTA SOUTH TO THE GULF COAST. AS HAS BEEN FORECAST THE PAST FEW DAYS, A TROF AXIS IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP THIS WEEK ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.
A LITTLE CONCERNED ABOUT POTENTIAL FOR ACCAS SHRA/TSRA AS SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY WORKS EASTWARD AHEAD OF 850MB WARM FRONT. AIR MASS IS MOISTENING SLIGHTLY IN THE LOWER LEVELS WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER-MID 50S ACROSS OUR WEST AS OF 02Z.
1046 PM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015 AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH THURSDAY.
/ISSUED 627 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015/ HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER ARKANSAS.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE HIGH PLAINS REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY RESULTING IN A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA. WAA CONTINUES WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S WEST TO LOW/MID 80S OVER MY CENTRAL AND EAST. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY. THE RIDGE LOOKS TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
234 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015 Currently in between a strong amplitude upper level ridge centered over the central and southern Rockies, and a strong area of low pressure north of the Great Lakes, within strong north-northwest flow. We remain under control of high pressure in the lower levels which is keeping a cooler and drier air mass over the region. Looks very similar today as we had yesterday, with upper level northwest flow remaining in place and low level high pressure. This will keep the cooler and drier air mass in place over the region through the short term.
131 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2015 AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER PENNSYLVANIA TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
154 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2015 AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER PENNSYLVANIA TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
THESE ARE IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING NE ACROSS OREGON THIS EVENING. IMPROVEMENT IS FORESEEN FOR THE WEEKEND WHEN A PACIFIC UPPER TROUGH MOVES INLAND WITH INCREASED MIXING AND VENTILATION. LITTLE CHANGE IN MAX TEMPS THROUGH THURSDAY BUT MIN TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER THURSDAY MORNING DUE TO GREATER CLOUD COVER.
823 PM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015 AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH THURSDAY.
1148 PM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015 WIDESPREAD VFR ACROSS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING, LOW-LEVEL DRY ADVECTION HAVING SCOURED OUT THE LOWER CLOUD DEBRIS. SOME POTENTIAL FOR MVFR THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING PERIOD, BUT THE PATTERN OF MVFR IN THE OBSERVATIONS IS NOT ENTIRELY COHERENT, LOWERING CONFIDENCE IN AN MVFR FORECAST, PARTICULARLY EAST OF THE GLACIAL RIDGE. PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WRAPPED AROUND THIS LOW IS PRODUCING LARGE STRATUS DECK OVER THE GREAT LAKES. LOWS TONIGHT MAINLY LOW TO MID 50S UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL SLOWLY CLEAR THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TOMORROW. WEAK SURFACE FLOW/LACK OF MIXING DEPTHS EXPECTED TO HOLD MAXES IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
229 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2015 A LARGE AND VERY SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL IMPACT THE NORTH COUNTRY RIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
TODAY AND TONIGHT EVEN AS UPPER LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OPENS AND LIFT NORTHEAST INTO QUEBEC. AS UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST TONIGHT. BETWEEN THESE CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH.
513 PM MDT TUE AUG 25 2015 HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER EASTERN CO AND NEW MEXICO WILL FORCE WINDS ALOFT TO BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY. THE THICKENING CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL ALSO PRODUCE WARMER LOW TEMPS TONIGHT. GENERAL TROUGHINESS STAYS OVERHEAD THURSDAY ALLOWING MORE PRECIP ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE FRONT RANGE BY THURSDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN OVERHEAD.
IT IS RELATIVELY QUIET ON THIS SIDE WITH A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL U. DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH NO SIGNIFICANT EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE ACTIVITY WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS WELL OFFSHORE.
400 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2015 HIGH PRESSURE NUDGES INTO THE REGION TODAY. PUSHING THE COLD FRONT OFFSHORE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE AREA FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. HAVE CONTINUED ISO TO SCT SHRA WORDING ACROSS THE FAR SE CWA FOR THIS MORNING, AS WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PUSHES ALONG THE FRONT EARLY TODAY. COOL HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS BUILDS EAST, ALLOWING FOR HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S UNDER A PARTLY SUNNY SKY.