Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Today Through Wednesday Night A quiet weather pattern has returned to the Natural State with the departure of a strong low pressure system. An associated cold front extends from this low back to the southwest, near the mouth of the MS River, and extends into the Gulf of Mexico. Aloft at H500, the trough axis was roughly centered over the Central Plains and will quickly progress eastward today. To the west, upper level ridging will take its place. This morning, abundant cloud cover will be seen with lows ranging from the lower 20s across the north to the upper 20s and 30s across central and southern AR.
This trough will continue to propagate east as the FA comes under northerly flow aloft today ahead of the approaching ridge. Going into tonight the calm winds and clear skies will allow some radiational cooling to drop temperatures into the low 20s to low teens across the area. Tomorrow, the upper level ridge will build over the area and temperatures will be slightly higher in the low 50s.
Cloud thickness will be on the increase today and tonight ahead of low pressure currently well off the California coast. The low is expected to become increasingly disjointed as it moves over California and Nevada Wednesday, with the upper forcing outrunning much of the low-mid level moisture.
Thus, we'll see lows dip into the low to mid 20s south of the Big Country, and mid to upper 20s in the Big Country.
gradual clearing will take place as high pressure builds back into the region. Persistent northerly flow and cloudy skies will keep temperatures on the cooler side today with highs in the upper 30's to low 40's.
224 AM MST Tue Dec 17 2019 Upper ridge will build over Montana today and Wednesday with dry weather and warmer temperatures. The low level inversions have produced much colder temperatures overnight in some low lying areas with temperatures near zero. The low level inversions and snow cover will limit temperatures in the northeast. Will add patchy freezing fog to parts of the Milk and Missouri River Valleys for now.
310 AM CST Tue Dec 17 2019 The primary concern early this morning remains dense fog along and east of the Missouri River where visibility is occasionally down to 1/4 mile with temperatures in the lower 20s. Otherwise, once we lose the fog later this morning, the remainder of the day looks good with highs in the lower to mid 30s, and westerly winds 5 to 10 mph.
Considered extending the High Wind Warning but currently do not have the confidence in timing or frequency of the strongest winds to do so. Much of the day will be sunny with temperatures warmer thanks to westerly downslope winds. Highs in the low 50s are expected for most as the stubborn cold air is finally flushed out.
A trough of low pressure moving inland to the north on Wednesday will bring a return of onshore flow and spread cooling inland.
A strong ridge aloft will move from the west coast toward the intermountain west today with subsident flow over Colorado. Temperatures will continue to moderate under the ridge on Wednesday.
/JNE/ Today will be a much different day than yesterday! The frontal passage will continue to track east of the region leaving behind windy and cooler conditions as a cold air mass settles in to the ArkLaMiss. Since we are expecting clear skies tonight, this will make way for some good radiational cooling, and minTs for much of the area will be below freezing tonight. Expect high temperatures to range from the low to mid 40s for areas north of I-20 and upper 40s south of I-20. /JNE/ Cooler start to Wednesday with the boundary layer a little close to saturated in some low lying areas. Temps may be a few degrees above todays highs, but still kept to the low 50s for the southern half of the state.
These showers will dissipate by mid morning as a ridge strengthens over Western Montana. This ridge will influence our weather through Wednesday.
314 AM MST Tue Dec 17 2019 Western NOAM ridge will shift east this week, supporting mild conds, esp the second half of the week. Front side of the ridge is shifting east with WAA ensuing over the west. Mean ridging expected the remainder of the week with warming temps.
318 AM MST Tue Dec 17 2019 High pressure ridging will continue over the forecast area today through Wednesday. Lee- side troughing will remain in place which will result in tight pressure gradients across these areas. As a result, we will continue the high wind warning for the Big Timber area and the wind advisory for the Livingston to Nye areas through Wednesday morning.
As high pressure builds overhead Wednesday, high temperatures in the higher terrain warm significantly while temperature inversions keep valley locations from warming as much.
953 AM EST Tue Dec 17 2019 A wintry mix of rain, snow, and freezing rain will continue through part of the day with crossing low pressure before switching to snow this afternoon. A reinforcing cold front will return snow showers and squalls Wednesday. The winter weather advisory will be allowed to expire at 16Z as surface temperatures warm above freezing and colder air aloft arrives removing the warm nose, which in turn changes ptype to all snow. For the ice storm warning, a few mesonet sites are reports values in the lower 30s over eastern Garrett county despite the airport reporting lower 40s. Dry weather should return this evening as low level ridging briefly builds in. Scattered to numerous snow showers are then expected late tonight and Wednesday with a crossing upper trough and reinforcing sfc cold front.
High pressure will bring quiet weather today except for gusty north winds down the Colorado River Valley, where a Lake Wind Advisory is in effect.
505 AM EST Tue Dec 17 2019 A wintry mix of rain, snow, and freezing rain continue through part of the day with crossing low pressure. A reinforcing cold front should return snow showers on Wednesday. Dry weather should return this evening as low level ridging briefly builds in. Scattered to numerous snow showers are then expected late tonight and Wednesday with a crossing upper trough and reinforcing sfc cold front.
535 AM CST Tue Dec 17 2019 A much quieter forecast for the short term as high pressure continues to build into the region. This morning will have some dense fog and/or freezing fog as clear skies over fresh snow cover are allowing temperatures to drop quickly. Later today, the high pressure that brought the cold air into the region will slowly drift off to the east and ridging will take over. By Wednesday, the ridging will continue and temperatures will continue recover nicely.
/issued 240 AM CST Tue Dec 17 2019/ Surface ridging will be slow to budge today. Upper level ridging will then move overhead on Wednesday beginning a very slow warmup for the rest of the week. At the surface, we will see a return to lee pressure troughing with a short wave moving east across the Intermountain West.
High clouds are increasing across the area as the upper ridge shifts east and the offshore trough approaches.
Otherwise, expect partly to mostly cloudy skies today with highs in the low 30s.
1107 AM EST Tue Dec 17 2019 Cold front has made its way across the almost all of the forecast area and is now moving across western NC and into south central VA. The rain showers will eventually change to snow across the higher elevations.
A secondary cold front followed by strong Canadian high pressure will move into the area overnight. There have been one or two sporadic reports of very light freezing drizzle upstream, but forecast soundings show very shallow moisture below the inversion, and nearly neutral vertical motion in the low levels, so do not anticipate this becoming an issue here. Made downward adjustments in each period for the existing snowpack areas, particularly during the overnights, and again particularly Wednesday night with clear skies and light winds anticipated as the high passes directly over the area.
A much quieter forecast for the short term as high pressure continues to build into the region. This morning will have some dense fog and/or freezing fog as clear skies over fresh snow cover are allowing temperatures to drop quickly. Later today, the high pressure that brought the cold air into the region will slowly drift off to the east and ridging will take over. By Wednesday, the ridging will continue and temperatures will continue recover nicely.
313 PM EST Tue Dec 17 2019 Cooler and drier air will work into the area overnight as high pressure slowly builds into the area behind the departing system. Expect lows to drop into the low to mid 20s.
Despite full sunshine under a ridge of high pressure, highs will only moderate into the 40's for most with some 50's found along the Rio Grande.
Also tried to depict expected freezing fog based on the NAMNest model. ---BMickelson Previous discussion: Upper ridge will build over Montana today and Wednesday with dry weather and warmer temperatures. The low level inversions have produced much colder temperatures overnight in some low lying areas with temperatures near zero. The low level inversions and snow cover will limit temperatures in the northeast. Will add patchy freezing fog to parts of the Milk and Missouri River Valleys for now.
As a result, opted to reduce the high temperatures a few degrees for today across portions of NE OK and NW AR where clouds are expected to hang on a little longer. Otherwise, a very pleasant and increasingly sunny day is expected for most locations thanks to subsidence as a result of rising heights on the back side of the exiting trough.
A weak wave approaches the forecast area overnight, which also helps set up an H85 thermal ridge. The upper ridge currently centered over the Rockies also emerges onto the High Plains. Blended in some warmer solutions for max temps, but tempered just a bit due to remaining snowpack.
The good news is, with wet grounds/roads and temperatures above freezing, the roads themselves should not add to any travel impacts. I've got more good news -- northerly winds will also continue to be gusty through sunset, so roads should dry out, too, before temperatures fall into the low 20s tonight.
157 PM CST Tue Dec 17 2019 An upper level low is centered across northwestern Ontario with a sweeping trough axis from the Ohio Valley to SWRN NM. A ridge is present across the spine of the Rockies with another low out off the Pacific coast. The ridge is expected to translate eastward tomorrow with the next low-in-sequence making its way to the Sierra Nevada range by tomorrow evening.
Similar conditions are expected tonight as a ridge aloft passes through.
141 PM CST Tue Dec 17 2019 A backdoor cold front will continue to drift southwest from the northeast part of the state this afternoon, stalling out over the southwest tonight. An upper ridge to our west will start to deamplify as the axis slowly moves towards the Dakotas overnight and Wednesday. At the surface, the stationary front will transition to a warm front and also move east, bringing with it a much milder Wednesday across western and central North Dakota.
1230 PM MST Tue Dec 17 2019 An upper-level ridge is forecast to progress eastward over the Central High Plains today and Wednesday which will provide drier conditions under mostly sunny skies.
1100 AM CST Tue Dec 17 2019 The AM flurries have come to an end across the Mid-South as cold advection ushers in cooler and drier air. North winds of 10-15 mph will make it feel even cooler with wind chill readings in the low/mid 30s this afternoon. gradual clearing will take place as high pressure builds back into the region. Persistent northerly flow and cloudy skies will keep temperatures on the cooler side today with highs in the upper 30's to low 40's.
1113 AM EST Tue Dec 17 2019 A wintry mix of rain, snow, and freezing rain will continue through part of the day with crossing low pressure before switching to snow this afternoon. A reinforcing cold front will return snow showers and squalls Wednesday. The winter weather advisory will be allowed to expire at 16Z as surface temperatures warm above freezing and colder air aloft arrives removing the warm nose, which in turn changes ptype to all snow. For the ice storm warning, a few mesonet sites are reports values in the lower 30s over eastern Garrett county despite the airport reporting lower 40s. Dry weather should return this evening as low level ridging briefly builds in. Scattered to numerous snow showers are then expected late tonight and Wednesday with a crossing upper trough and reinforcing sfc cold front.
A strong ridge will continue to push east into the region moderating temperatures through mid-week. Some upper level moisture will continue to move over the top of the ridge and into eastern Colorado from Wyoming into the evening hours bringing some upper level clouds.
A weak cold front that has been moving across the area will switch winds to northerly for the early overnight. The air mass behind this front is cold enough in the lowest couple thousand feet to cause some low- layer saturation, so scattered overnight cloud cover can't be ruled out. A building ridge aloft on Wednesday combined with southerly flow near the surface will help boost temperatures to near seasonal normals.
Skies are expected to clear out and winds weaken overnight as high pressure pushes into the area. The broad upper level wave spanning the entire CONUS places us squarely in northwesterly flow aloft, with a broad area of high pressure at the surface drifting into MN overnight.
1103 AM EST Tue Dec 17 2019 A well defined and sharp cold front currently extends southwest into the Gulf from near Panama City, Florida.
915 AM MST Tue Dec 17 2019 Added some clouds to the western zones today per satellite imagery which shows plenty of moisture spilling over the upper ridge to the west. BT High pressure ridging will continue over the forecast area today through Wednesday. Lee- side troughing will remain in place which will result in tight pressure gradients across these areas. As a result, we will continue the high wind warning for the Big Timber area and the wind advisory for the Livingston to Nye areas through Wednesday morning.
Synoptically, an upper level trough was shifting southeast through the CWA this afternoon, with some cold air advection continuing. Highs should climb above freezing on Wednesday. Upper level ridging will begin to build into the area on Wednesday night, with low level warm advection beginning to set up with a south to southwest wind in the lower levels.
Cloud cover will help to keep low temps warmer that under clear conditions, with lows in mid to upper teens. Wednesday will feature high pressure becoming more established, with drying conditions and more sunshine. Highs will be a few degrees colder than today, with readings in the lower 20s in our NE counties, and mid to upper 20s farther southwest, from Rushville to Springfield to Lawrenceville.
79 /18Z TAF/ A dry and cool airmass and building high pressure aloft will result in a mostly clear sky across all of North and Central Texas this afternoon through Wednesday.
For tonight, skies will clear quickly and the winds will slacken as high pressure builds across the region.
234 PM EST Tue Dec 17 2019 Current surface analysis shows a cold front over half way across the local forecast area. Through the rest of the evening, this cold front should continue to push east through the area clearing out the last of the precipitation over the next few hours. Wednesday is expected to be dry and a bit cooler than today as high pressure builds into the forecast area behind the front.
1214 PM EST Tue Dec 17 2019 A wintry mix of rain, snow, and freezing rain will continue through part of the day with crossing low pressure before switching to snow this afternoon. A reinforcing cold front will return snow showers and squalls Wednesday. The winter weather advisory will be allowed to expire at 16Z as surface temperatures warm above freezing and colder air aloft arrives removing the warm nose, which in turn changes ptype to all snow. For the ice storm warning, a few mesonet sites are reports values in the lower 30s over eastern Garrett county despite the airport reporting lower 40s. Dry weather should return this evening as low level ridging briefly builds in. Scattered to numerous snow showers are then expected late tonight and Wednesday with a crossing upper trough and reinforcing sfc cold front.
324 PM EST Tue Dec 17 2019 A reinforcing cold front will return snow showers and squalls Wednesday. Band of snow will the cold front will continue to sag south through the evening. A rather potent upper trough and surface front will pivot across the region early Wednesday. Steepening low level lapse rates and deep moisture in the dendritic snow growth zone support a window of efficient snowfall, with reduced visibilities both along the cold front and in NW flow thereafter.
High pressure will continue to build over the area today.
1024 AM MST Tue Dec 17 2019 An upper-level ridge is forecast to progress eastward over the Central High Plains today and Wednesday which will provide drier conditions under mostly sunny skies.
954 AM CST Tue Dec 17 2019 After warm and stormy conditions yesterday, the passage of a strong cold front last night has brought much cooler air to the Tennessee Valley. Temperatures that were in the lower 60s east of the front around midnight, have tumbled into the mid/upper 30s over far NW Alabama to low/mid 40s over NE Alabama.
In the upper levels, a ridge will build into the forecast area Wednesday with high temperatures rebounding to the 50s.
1022 AM MST Tue Dec 17 2019 Western NOAM ridge will shift east this week, supporting mild conds, esp the second half of the week. Front side of the ridge is shifting east with WAA ensuing over the west. Mean ridging expected the remainder of the week with warming temps.
155 PM MST Tue Dec 17 2019 Strong upper ridging will continue to build into the region tonight through Wednesday, bringing continued dry weather.
A closed low continued to track across Canada north of the Great Lakes, with its trough extending south through the Upper Midwest to the Texas panhandle. West of the High Plains, upper ridging built onto the Rockies. Flow aloft turns to the northwest tonight as the upper ridge noses into the Plains. The ridge progresses over the area on Wednesday, with sunny skies expected through the day and highs in the 50s. Clouds increase from the west overnight as an upper trough makes its way to the Rockies.
A weak trough moving inland to the north on Wednesday will have little impact on our weather.
Increased mid clouds with the weak wave on the back side of the trough in the northwest flow aloft. The primary concern early this morning remains dense fog along and east of the Missouri River where visibility is occasionally down to 1/4 mile with temperatures in the lower 20s. Otherwise, once we lose the fog later this morning, the remainder of the day looks good with highs in the lower to mid 30s, and westerly winds 5 to 10 mph.
103 PM EST Tue Dec 17 2019 Skies will vary from partly to mostly cloudy skies this afternoon with highs in the lower to middle 30s.
Cold front with associated convection will move into SE GA during the middle of this afternoon, then move SE across the region through this evening. High pressure will build from the west northwest overnight, as rain chances taper off.
656 PM EST Tue Dec 17 2019 A cold front will push through the region overnight, providing much below normal temperatures.
Our incoming trough is showing up nicely on water vapor this afternoon. The trough axis is about 300 or so miles to the west of Santa Maria. The trough axis will push east this evening making it to the coast shortly after 06z/10 PM.
So how much warmer will it get overnight? Thinking 3 to 5 degrees warmer so in the grand scheme of things, not much of a difference. The ridge that is bringing the nice, cold weather will shift east tomorrow causing winds to shift to the southwest ushering in some warmer temperatures as well as a few higher clouds in the afternoon.
903 PM EST Tue Dec 17 2019 A reinforcing cold front will return snow showers and squalls Wednesday. This front and its associated, upper low will pivot across the region by pre-dawn Wednesday. Steepening low level lapse rates and deep moisture within the dendritic snow growth zone will support a window of efficient snowfall, with reduced visibilities in gusty wind in conjunction with the crossing cold front and in nwly flow thereafter. Snow showers will diminish with building high pressure Wednesday night.
Should be about 10 degrees warmer tonight compared to last night. An incoming low pressure system off the California coast will turn the flow more southerly, which will allow for moisture to stream into the region.
PWs generally less than a quarter inch) & clearing skies after midnight, expect good radiational cooling & lows below freezing, with some upper 20s to low 30s areawide. There is some crossover temperatures, so will have to monitor how much we can radiate for any very patchy freezing fog. Wednesday: Tomorrow will be similar as thermal profiles remain somewhat similar, albeit only a touch warmer in the low-levels.
A backdoor cold front will continue to drift southwest from the northeast part of the state this afternoon, stalling out over the southwest tonight. An upper ridge to our west will start to deamplify as the axis slowly moves towards the Dakotas overnight and Wednesday. At the surface, the stationary front will transition to a warm front and also move east, bringing with it a much milder Wednesday across western and central North Dakota.
401 PM EST Tue Dec 17 2019 A cold front will push through the region overnight, providing much below normal temperatures.
/Issued 234 PM EST Tue Dec 17 2019/ Current surface analysis shows a cold front over half way across the local forecast area. Through the rest of the evening, this cold front should continue to push east through the area clearing out the last of the precipitation over the next few hours. Wednesday is expected to be dry and a bit cooler than today as high pressure builds into the forecast area behind the front.
The only exception to this is immediately east of the Wet mtns where it is downsloping, and temps were in the lower 40s. Readings are anticipated to be in the single digits along the lower Ark rvr valley while on the divides temps will be in the tens.
441 PM MST Tue Dec 17 2019 AFTERNOON DISCUSSION: Even though most model data indicate fog will not form tonight, we felt it was best to proceed with freezing fog in the forecast again tonight, given that, this morning, fog was persistent in the Wolf Point area. Ridge of high pressure moving in from west of here, will continue to dominate the weather pattern over our region.
206 PM MST Tue Dec 17 2019 High pressure ridging will continue over the forecast area through Wednesday.
730 PM EST Tue Dec 17 2019 A cold front will move east of the area this evening then push offshore later tonight. A dry cold front will move through the area Wednesday evening. Drier, cooler weather is expected for the remainder of the work week. The next chance for precipitation is this weekend as low pressure develops to our south. Skies will begin to clear later tonight as the high clouds shift east when the upper level trough axis pushes through the region. Strong cold advection expected to lower temperatures into the 30s by dawn Wednesday with lows ranging from the lower to mid 30s west and upper 30s east despite a mixed boundary layer. High pressure will move over the Southeast during the short term providing dry weather and below normal temperatures.
Cooler and drier air will work into the area overnight as high pressure slowly builds into the area behind the departing system. Expect lows to drop into the low to mid 20s.
/Issued 600 PM EST Tue Dec 17 2019/ Current surface analysis shows a cold front over half way across the local forecast area. Through the rest of the evening, this cold front should continue to push east through the area clearing out the last of the precipitation over the next few hours. Wednesday is expected to be dry and a bit cooler than today as high pressure builds into the forecast area behind the front.