Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Increasing warm air and moisture advection will provide the support for the wintry mix, which appears to be a mix of snow and rain, possibly some freezing rain in some spots. Both the RAP and NAM soundings suggest a loss of ice in the dendritic snow growth layer Thursday morning, which should lead to more freezing drizzle vs. freezing rain. Overnight lows are anticipated to dip only into the upper 20s north to the lower 30s south. The models are progging a very narrow band of precipitation, which may sneak into our southern counties by late Thursday afternoon, which presumably is caused by the low-level warm air advection ahead of the next weather system to impact the region for Friday and through the weekend.
433 AM MDT Thu Apr 12 2018 Current surface analysis shows developing low pressure over western WY, with a frontal boundary extending east-southeast into the central Plains. Upper level analysis shows weakening ridge over the plains, with large scale trough digging southeast across the Pacific NW. Strong jet extends around the base of the trough and into the northern Rockies and Plains.
with warm front extending eastward along the I-80 corridor. As the low tracks into the Great Lakes later this morning, the boundary will get pushed slightly further southward. As a result, have lowered high temperatures there into the lower 70s.
At the surface, ridging over the nrn Great Lakes has brought sunny skies to Upper Michigan while erly winds were increasing over the Upper MS valley ahead of a trough from srn Alberta to sw South Dakota. There will also be a little freezing rain mixed in with the snow in the far south.
A warm front over the area tonight will lift slowly to the north Thursday.
Expect very strong southwest winds today as a cold front moves across the northland.
Strong, Gusty winds will continue today as a cold front slides through the region. Temperatures both today and Friday will be sharply cooler than recent days with mostly sunny skies. Winds will begin to relax around sunrise and a brief lull in the strong winds is likely before the cold front arrives midmorning and winds shift around to the northwest. Patchy blowing dust is a good bet today both ahead of and behind the cold front, along with sharply cooler temperatures. High temps this afternoon will be a good ~20 degrees cooler than those observed the past few days.
Windy and warm conditions can be expected today and Friday as a low pressure system approaches the area.
All in all, today and much of Friday will be unsettled, cooler than normal, and predominantly wet.
Zonal flow aloft, ridging at the surface, and deep layer dry air will set the stage for a quiet night weather-wise. Deep layer high pressure will remain in place across the region yielding dry conditions and seasonal temperatures across the tri- state region.
Strong mid and upper low will approach the Panhandles from the northern and central Rockies by Friday with a strong cold front moving through the forecast area Friday morning. Much cooler and windy conditions Friday with early highs expected around 18Z Friday or so and then falling temps through the remainder of the day.
Meanwhile, a line of showers associated with a cold front in eastern Oregon will move into southwest Idaho this morning. Most of the showers will occur in the higher elevations. The main concern will be the winds behind the cold front. An upper trough aligned to the west of the cold front will move into our area this afternoon, accompanied by scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms. Temperatures will be much cooler today. Showers will diminish tonight and end for most of the area on Friday as an upper ridge builds into the region. High temperatures will be 4 to 8 degrees warmer on Friday.
Ridging continues to build in during the day with 1000-500 mb thickness increasing from around 555 dam to 564 dam by the evening hours. As high pressure continues to retreat to our east, low-level SW flow will increase allowing warmer 850 mb temperatures to advect across the area.
Low level winds will strengthen today in response to a deepening low pressure system across the Plains. Rain chcs continue to increase through Fri morning as an upper level low pressure system swings across the plains with the trough axis movg across W TX and ejecting embedded short waves across the region.
316 AM PDT Thu Apr 12 2018 a low pressure trough will move over California this morning, producing strong westerly winds over the mountains and deserts, and a chance for a few light showers, mainly western San Diego County. The trough will slide east this afternoon, allowing winds to slowly subside late today and overnight. Cooler tonight as drier air invades the region under mostly clear skies, then warmer into the weekend under weak high pressure aloft and offshore flow.
405 AM CDT Thu Apr 12 2018 Another very nice day will get underway shortly albeit with afternoon highs a few degrees warmer along with more humid air. High pressure sitting off the eastern seaboard today will allow for moderate southerly winds to develop by this afternoon. Of course the big weather maker continues to be the strong cold front that will begin impacting the area as early as tomorrow morning across southeast Texas where isolated showers and thunderstorms will begin developing before spreading east into Louisiana by Friday afternoon.
After a glorious day with little more than fresh return southeast breezes, the "Valley Wind Machine" kicks into gear for Thursday, then continues Thursday night as 35 to 40 knot low level southerly jet develops/moves into the Rio Grande Valley ahead of intensifying Southern Plains low and baggy trough that dips toward 1000 mb over the lee of the Sierra Madre during the evening.
Due to the combination of southerly flow and overcast clouds aloft, we have increased minimum temps by a degree or so to indicate lows ranging from the lower 40s in the eastern valleys to the m-u 40s elsewhere. The upper-ridge axis will amplify Thursday and Friday, increasing southerly to southwesterly flow and inducing a warming trend to end the work week.
Local breezes shifted and surged as expected, with winds blowing now mainly out of the northeast and east, thanks to the quick eastward movement of a high pressure cell across the southeastern United States.
Yesterday's cold front is now well off to our east, and much colder air has moved in behind it. Things quiet down tonight as a weak upper ridges moves overhead. A warm front may produce light rain at the coast tonight and then over much of the west side tomorrow morning, but this moves north of us by afternoon.
With temperatures above freezing, only rain is expected through early evening before the pcpn ends. S/W ridging should bring a decent day to the area, but with perhaps just a slight chance of WAA pcpn across the northern CWA as we head into the afternoon hours.
Upper level trough continues to slowly push a cold front across the Pacific northwest. The upper level trough will be over the area Thursday with very cold air aloft. Cooler temperatures tomorrow as well with highs in the 40s to mid 50s. Upper level ridge builds into the area Thu night and Friday with a warm front moving through. Cold front moving through the area with occasional rain overnight.
The models continue to trend slower with the progression of the low pressure system. A few severe storms are possible across central and southeast MO Friday afternoon and evening as the low-mid level wind shear strengthens ahead of the approaching upper level low and instability increases ahead of the approaching cold front.
Showers to increase in coverage this evening across southeast Oklahoma and northeast Texas with isolated thunderstorms possible after midnight as upper-trough begins to deepen and swing east across the Red River Valley. Conditions to quickly deteriorate on Friday as upper-trough deepens across the southern and central Plains. Severe storms are forecast to develop across the ArkLaTex on Friday afternoon ahead of a cold front. With surface temperatures forecast to approach a warm 80 degrees on Friday, combined with rich low-level moisture and cooling aloft ahead of the approaching trough will allow for sufficient destabilization to support rapid thunderstorm development.
High pressure will build in Friday night through the weekend with warming temperatures.
With insufficient time to appreciably increase moisture levels over the forecast area, another night of light winds and a dry airmass will be counter-balanced a bit by increased subsidence from the approaching upper ridge to bring warmer overnight temps as compared to last night, but still below seasonal. Thursday, as the upper ridge continues to approach the Mississippi River Valley, temps warm to around to above seasonal levels as subsidence continues. With the onshore flow still on the weak side, Gulf moisture overspreading the area will be limited, allowing insolation to contribute to the warmer temps for Thursday.
However, humidity will remain fairly low in the wake of the recent cold front, making for pleasant weather across the area. Models continue in very good agreement with upper ridging in the W Atlantic and large upper low over the Plains states.
1124 PM MDT Wed Apr 11 2018 Upper level analysis shows slight ridging over the western/central CONUS, with a trough moving into the Pacific Northwest. Southwesterly winds earlier today have helped temperatures warm into the 60s and 70s across southern portions of the area, but winds are becoming gusty from the northwest behind a cold front. Upper trough will move onshore early Thursday, and chances for precipitation will increase as low pressure approaches the region. Temperatures will be cooler Thursday, but still warm enough for rain. Models continue to come into better agreement on the southward track of the low. Pressure rises of 4-6 mb/3hrs support strong northerly winds Friday behind the low, sustained 25 to 35 mph with gusts to 55 mph.
200 AM EDT Thu Jul 20 2017 A weak upper level low over will drift slowly east and out into the Atlantic tonight.
The high pressure currently over the Mid-South will weaken over the weekend along a frontal system moving toward the area from the Great Plains and an upper level disturbance along the Gulf Coast.
High pressure builds across tonight. Based on upstream temps this morning in south central Canada vcnty of the high, think interior areas have shot to drop below 50 degrees tonight which will be quite refreshing. Temps near 60F will hang on close to the Great Lakes though as proximity of warmer nearshore waters tempers the cooling. High temperatures will be above normal Friday with highs warming into the upper 70s and low 80s, except cooler along the Great Lakes shorelines.
Otherwise, the majority of the CWA should see a rain/thunder- free night with seasonably-warm lows holding up in the low-mid 70s. Hot and humid conditions will continue across the local area through the short term periods with little relief in sight ahead of weak cold front across the Dakotas. expect strong high pressure to slowly give way to the aforementioned cold front late Friday night with slightly cooler.
608 AM EDT Thu Jul 20 2017 Weak high pressure will build across the region today. A stronger cold front will approach Thursday night and cross the area Friday.
350 AM CDT Thu Jul 20 2017 A large area of high pressure will provide hot and humid conditions through the remainder of the week.
407 AM CDT Thu Jul 20 2017 Heat and humidity will be the main concerns across Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas through the end of the work week and into the start of the weekend as the dome of high pressure remains over the Southern Plains.
245 AM CDT Thu Jul 20 2017 Showers/storms on the nose of the low-level jet/stronger moisture transport producing locally heavy rainfall will continue to shift eastward as the low-level jet veers early this morning. Otherwise, it should be a pretty quiet day as the low-level surface boundary gets shifted southward again.
As the subsidence associated with the upper ridge steadily increases Thursday, the CU should be noticeably flatter. /Issued 329 PM CDT Wed Jul 19 2017/ Upper level ridge centered around the Tulsa area continues to be the main driver of our weather across North and Central Texas through the next couple of days.
Some CAMS show convection developing by 20z across the higher terrain of WY/MT and near the Black Hills, but some hold off until 00z with cap holding until upper support arrives. Friday, aforementioned cold front moves east with leftover instability potentially created a few -TSRA over eastern portions of the CWA mainly in the afternoon.
STRONG upper high that remains sprawled across the southern two thirds of the U.
Highs today will likely be a couple of degrees warmer than yesterday, from 95-101 along and south of the front.
210 AM EDT Thu Jul 20 2017 High pressure situated over much of Wisconsin this afternoon led to clear skies through much of the day allowing temperatures to climb into 70s and a few 80s across the south central. Cloud cover will gradually thin, but do expect diurnal clouds to hold on through much of the day with the above mentioned cooler air aloft. High temperatures will be above normal Friday with highs warming into the upper 70s and low 80s, except cooler along the Great Lakes shorelines.
High pressure southeast of Indiana will continue to allow a warm and humid air mass across Central Indiana.
This will push the warm front back into southern MN Friday afternoon, and guidance is in good agreement on storms firing off along this front and heading southeast toward Chicago Friday night.
The synoptic pattern will transition to a flat ridge today.
An upper high situated over the Southern Plains dominates into tonight. A combination of subsidence from the upper high and northerly flow in the low levels will help to bring above seasonal temperatures to the forecast area, especially along and west of the Tombigbee River. Tonight, an upper low located over the Carolina coast shifts south, to over the NE Florida. With respect to temps, am expecting the weakening subsidence from the upper high to remain strong enough to keep overnight temps a bit above seasonal. Lows generally in the low 70s, mid 70s along the immediate coast.
/26/ Today and Tonight: Mid/upper level ridge will continue to dominate the weather across the region for the most part today.
The broad upper-level ridge will continue to build across the Southeast, becoming centered over the region by Friday. Highs will reach the low/mid 90s across NE AL, mid 90s in NCentral AL and the mid/upper 90s in NW AL.
The low level jet pivots off to the east after 12Z so expecting a rapidly diminishing trend through mid-morning.
316 AM CDT Thu Jul 20 2017 The loan severe thunderstorm overnight that produced up to ping pong ball hail in Windom MN around 1 am is well out of the area with weak ridging occurring in the wake. As the day moves along troughing should increase across the Western High Plains which will bring a gradually increasing threat for thunderstorms to central SD. Capping will play a role in development so will keep the chances on the low side. As the trough spreads eastward the low and mid level warm air advection will increase with elevated instability likely around 1500 J/kg but pretty weak low and mid level shear.
304 AM CDT Thu Jul 20 2017 Today and Tonight, The center of the upper level ridge will remain nearly stationary across KS and northern OK and will build eastward into MO Tonight. Monsoonal moisture across the central rockies will cause thunderstorms to develop during the afternoon hours but these storms will only move northeast into the high plains of eastern CO and western NE during the overnight hours. Forecast soundings show deeper mixing across the western counties where dew points may drop into the lower to mid 60s during the afternoon hours. Dewpoints across the eastern counties will remain in the lower to mid 70s.
The mid-level ridge in place across Oklahoma and the Texas panhandle is expected to remain anchored across the region. While I can't completely rule out a rogue shower or two beneath the H5 ridge, it's unlikely to persist long enough to warrant inclusion of appreciable PoPs/Wx in the worded forecast.
Temperatures in the lower 90s and increasing low-level moisture will allow heat indices to climb into the middle and upper 90s across much of the Valley.
Convection will be focused along the sea breeze today with light winds and high pressure over the eastern Gulf.
This setup could be slightly more conducive to isolated late day convection than today, though very dry air above the boundary layer and residual subsidence from the temporarily fleeting upper ridge will have something to say about that. Outside of the minimal PoPs, the weakening upper ridge that will be gradually shifting further to our east through the end of the week will still exert enough influence to keep the fairly typical summer heat going.
Slightly cooler temperatures are expected behind the weak cold front on Friday with highs in the low 90s.
The upper high is centered over Arkansas/Missouri, so a deep moist southerly flow will be in place for the next several days. Even when the upper high tries to recenter itself over the Great Basin and eventually Four Corners area, a weakness aloft will persist over the Borderland.
Upper high will continue to influence the region for a few more days but the center of the high should slowly shift east.
Mixing kept overnight temperatures across central and southern Iowa slightly warmer than the forecast low as most stations remained around 80 to 84 as of 3 a. This provides a much warmer start than previously anticipated and thus nudged up maximum temperatures slightly across the headlined area.
The high will gradually inch E into the Mid MS Vly. Surface: A quasi-stationary front extended from the lower GtLakes thru IL/IA and along the Neb/SD border into WY. This low is fcst to migrate into SW Neb (btwn IML-MCK) today and then remain quasi-stationary. but the 08Z HRRR suggests deep mixing S- SE of the low/incrsg S winds should force the boundary to lift back N to near I-80 this afternoon.
Hot and dry conditions once again can be expected today as an upper high slowly slides east across the Central Plains over the next 24 hours.
Although deep moisture will remain in place through the end of the week, subsidence due to a ridge aloft and a capping inversion will keep convection isolated. The ridge is progged to shift westward across the region today through Friday.
327 AM CDT Thu Jul 20 2017 Today and Tonight: Mid/upper level ridge will continue to dominate the weather across the region for the most part today.
Upper air analysis last evening showed the subtropical ridge over the south central part of the country. At the surface, high pressure was centered over the Gulf and the pressure gradient across our CWA was weak.
/Issued 407 AM CDT Thu Jul 20 2017/ Heat and humidity will be the main concerns across Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas through the end of the work week and into the start of the weekend as the dome of high pressure remains over the Southern Plains.
Abundant moisture continues across southeast Arizona early this morning, with strong high pressure aloft centered over western Oklahoma, and an inverted upper trough over far west Texas and northeast Chihuahua Mexico.
A dominant upper level high spread across the southern plains will remain in place.
319 AM EDT Thu Jul 20 2017 A weak cold front stall over the area today.
231 AM CDT Thu Jul 20 2017 Excessive heat and humidity will be the story for the next 72 hours as an upper level ridge moves overhead stacking down to low level high pressure over the southern Mississippi Valley area. The result will be temperatures in the upper 90s to near 100 degrees and dewpoints in the lower to mid 70s which will allow heat index value to range from 105 to 115F over the region. The highest dewpoints will occur today for this event leading to the hottest day for heat index values especially north of the Missouri River, with 110-115F values over Atchison and Holt Counties.
Temperatures continue to warm today with building ridge and low level southernly flow. Cold air advection and tighter pressure gradient will result in stronger northwest winds along with cooler temperatures for Friday. The latest 00z model consensus continues to reflect a gradually building upper level ridge pattern across the western U.
Surface dew point in the mid 50s with temperatures in the lower 90s have been able to provide mixed layer instability values around 1000 J/kg within this moisture plume. Upper level high pressure remains over Kansas and Oklahoma extending westward through the desert Southwest with monsoonal moisture shunted westward to Utah and Arizona. A weakness on the southwest edge of the high is allowing for some shower development on the mountains of West Texas, but this activity should stay well away from the forecast area. A weakness in the ridge is progged to develop across eastern New Mexico and the western South Plains/Panhandle this weekend.
537 AM CDT Thu Jul 20 2017 The loan severe thunderstorm overnight that produced up to ping pong ball hail in Windom MN around 1 am is well out of the area with weak ridging occurring in the wake. As the day moves along troughing should increase across the Western High Plains which will bring a gradually increasing threat for thunderstorms to central SD. Capping will play a role in development so will keep the chances on the low side. As the trough spreads eastward the low and mid level warm air advection will increase with elevated instability likely around 1500 J/kg but pretty weak low and mid level shear.
235 AM MDT Thu Jul 20 2017 Large scale ridge remains in place across the Plains, with main monsoonal plume further northwest than it has been the last 3 days. A few models show activity in the higher terrain in CO spreading east, but quickly falling apart before reaching our far northwest CWA. Regarding temperatures/Heat Advisory: There are some questions to location of possible pre frontal trough axis near our north, but even then we are in line for another day of 100+ degree temps, and Tds should remain near our above advisory criteria in our north/northeast. Models are actually showing a slight upward trend in temps aloft, so we may be a few decrees warmer Thursday than today.
1118 PM MDT Wed Jul 19 2017 Large scale ridge remains in place across the Plains, with main monsoonal plume further northwest than it has been the last 3 days. A few models show activity in the higher terrain in CO spreading east, but quickly falling apart before reaching our far northwest CWA. Regarding temperatures/Heat Advisory: There are some questions to location of possible pre frontal trough axis near our north, but even then we are in line for another day of 100+ degree temps, and Tds should remain near our above advisory criteria in our north/northeast. Models are actually showing a slight upward trend in temps aloft, so we may be a few decrees warmer Thursday than today.
/Issued 246 PM CDT Wed Jul 19 2017/ Upper level ridge over the south central part of the U.
As the low moves, upper level flow will turn more northerly and should bring in drier air to the mid and upper levels and suppress the majority of convection today. 500mb temperatures will fall in to the -8 to -9C range under the center of the upper low, so a few storms could become strong to severe with damaging winds and even a few hail producers.
High pressure will propagate across the region today advecting in a stable airmass (light winds and mostly sunny sky with temperatures in the 80s).
150 AM EDT Thu Jul 20 2017 Seabreeze moving through our extreme SE sections combined with the arrival of some steeper lapse rates from upper low has resulted in some late developing severe storms. Ridging aloft over the Tennessee Valley should prohibit convection and will continue a dry forecast for north Georgia for Thursday.