Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
655 PM CDT THU OCT 15 2015 A COLD FRONT IS STARTING TO MAKE HEADWAY SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AND IT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TERMINALS LATER THIS EVENING. LURKING TO THE NORTH IS A FAIRLY SHARP COLD FRONT MOVING SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH THE PANHANDLE. FRIDAY WILL BE MARKEDLY COOLER WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 60S FOR A LARGE PART OF THE AREA.
834 PM EDT THU OCT 15 2015 A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY CREST OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING BEFORE SLIDING OFFSHORE. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH COLD AND UNSETTLED WEATHER EXPECTED.
921 PM EDT THU OCT 15 2015 SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY A COLD FRONT TONIGHT. RAIN IS HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME MAKING MUCH SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION AS THE LOWER LEVEL AIRMASS IS QUITE DRY. INCREASED CLOUD COVER CAN BE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. POPS WERE TAPERED OFF IN THE PREDAWN HOURS AS PER NAM TIMING OF EXITING MID LVL TROUGH/PCPN SUPPORT. HIGH AMPLITUDE ERN CONUS TROUGHING IS STILL PROGGED FOR THE WEEKEND.
620 PM CDT THU OCT 15 2015 WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/RAP ANALYSIS THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS A LONG WAVE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM NEAR HUDSON BAY CANADA THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. LOOKING AT SOME INSTABILITY SHOWERS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL WI ASSOCIATED WITH AN EMBEDDED MID-LEVEL TROUGH ROTATING THROUGH THAT AREA. TO THE LOWER 60S SOUTH OF I-90. LOOK FOR THOSE INSTABILITY SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH TO DISSIPATE WITH SUNSET AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS. A CHILLY FRIDAY SETTING UP FOR THE REGION ON FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE/COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUE TO BUILD IN. FRIDAY NIGHT LOOKING TO BE VERY CHILLY ACROSS THE REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVERHEAD. TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 20S ELSEWHERE. WILL NEED TO HAVE A FREEZE WARNING FOR THOSE AREAS AWAY FROM CENTRAL WI THAT HAVE NOT YET SEEN SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES.
1100 PM CDT THU OCT 15 2015 A BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH WAS LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF NORTHERN AMERICA. A FEW ENHANCED AREAS OF VORTICITY WERE EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS TROUGH. AND TEMPERATURES WILL FALL NEAR FREEZING OVERNIGHT.
THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE WRN CONUS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE AXIS WILL CROSS THE CWA OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE ERN DAKOTAS/ERN NEB BY SUNRISE FRIDAY. COOLER AIRMASS AFFECTING THE MIDWEST WILL COMBINE WITH CLEAR SKIES. TEMPS WILL REACH THE LOWER 30S. AS THE HIGH PRESSURE AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF THE CWA.
EXPECT THE SHOWERS TO CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING AS THE CORE OF COLDEST AIR WITH H85 TEMPS APPROACHING -10C REACHES THE FORECAST AREA AND LATEST NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW LINGERING SMALL CAPE VALUES IN THE SATURATED LAYER ABOVE THE FREEZING LEVEL THROUGH MIDNIGHT. ONLY LIGHT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR LESS ARE EXPECTED IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS THAT FAVOR LES. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY EVENING AS RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
620 PM CDT THU OCT 15 2015 FREEZING TEMPERATURES TONIGHT.
840 PM CDT THU OCT 15 2015 The cold front that swept through our area early this afternoon accompanied by a gusty west to northwest wind, has shifted well off to our east and south this evening. Canadian high pressure well off to our northwest was ushering in some cool and very dry air with early evening dew points in the low to mid 20s over parts of our area.
1138 PM CDT THU OCT 15 2015 A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH KCDS AND KPVW AND IS IN THE PROCESS OF MOVING THROUGH KLBB AS OF 430Z. LURKING TO THE NORTH IS A FAIRLY SHARP COLD FRONT MOVING SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH THE PANHANDLE. FRIDAY WILL BE MARKEDLY COOLER WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 60S FOR A LARGE PART OF THE AREA.
606 PM CDT THU OCT 15 2015 DEW POINTS HAVE PLUMMETED INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S THIS AFTERNOON. WITH RH VALUES NOW IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S AS WELL. MAIN STORY TONIGHT WILL BE FREEZING TO SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES. TO JUST ABOVE FREEZING ALONG THE JAMES TO SUX.
18Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE NOW OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE WITH CLEAR SKIES. A LOW PRESSURE AREA IS MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WITH A DRY COLD FRONT CUTTING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THEN PASSES OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY FRIDAY MORNING WITH THE WHOLE TROUGH DESCENDING FURTHER SOUTH THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. GIVEN THE GENERAL MODEL AGREEMENT HAVE FAVORED THE HIGHER RESOLUTION NAM12 AND HRRR FOR WX DETAILS. THIS WILL SET UP A GOOD RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS BEFORE INCREASING CLOUDS. WITH THE APPROACH OF A MOSTLY DRY COLD FRONT. HIGHS WILL REBOUND INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S DESPITE POST FRONTAL CAA THROUGH THE DAY.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH CLOUD COVER LIMITED TO CIRRUS ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT ADVANCING INTO THE REGION LATER THIS MORNING. /ISSUED 941 PM CDT THU OCT 15 2015/ COLD FRONT CURRENTLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO SOUTHERN ARKANSAS.
919 PM CDT THU OCT 15 2015 Cold front is making steady progress to the south this evening and will exit the area by midnight or shortly thereafter.
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING WARM DRY CONDITIONS TO SE OREGON/SW IDAHO THROUGH FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MIDDLE 80S.
WITHOUT SURFACE HEATING AND THE LOW LEVEL COOLING FROM THE RAINS EARLIER, THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT VERY LIKELY THIS EVENING. THIS COMBINED WITH AN INVERSION IN THE MID LEVELS AND THE LOW LEVEL COOLING PRODUCED BY THIS MORNING'S RAINS COULD DELAY THE THUNDERSTORM FORMATION THIS AFTERNOON. /ISSUED 332 AM EDT WED APR 29 2015/ SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BRINGS SLIGHTLY COOLER AND MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS THAT WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND.
348 PM CDT WED APR 29 2015 BEAUTIFUL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD UP THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE REGION. BUT KEPT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOW 40S WITH WINDS AROUND 5 KTS MUCH OF THE NIGHT.
217 PM MDT WED APR 29 2015 A RIDGE WILL RESIDE OVER THE ROCKIES/PLAINS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
308 PM MDT WED APR 29 2015 UPPER RIDGING REMAINING OVER COLORADO ON THURSDAY WILL BRING ONE MORE VERY WARM DAY TO THE FORECAST AREA. A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO TOMORROW EVENING. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING OVER NORTHERN COLORADO AND SOUTHERN WYOMING WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTHEASTERN COLORADO LATE THURSDAY.
541 PM EDT WED APR 29 2015 A LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA WILL DEEPEN AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH THURSDAY.
THESE READINGS SHOULD CLIMB ANOTHER 2-4F DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON INTO AT LEAST THE LOW 70S FOR THE HILL COUNTRY AND MID 70S WITH ISOLATED UPPER 70S ELSEWHERE.
1040 AM PDT WED APR 29 2015 Today will be breezy and cooler with afternoon temperatures in the 60s over much of the Inland Northwest.
Temperatures may be a little tricky between the variable cloudiness which would tend to keep things a little warmer, and light northerly flow which should provide a little cool advection tonight.
THEREFORE WILL MAINTAIN THE SLIGHT CHANCE GIVEN THE LOW PROBABILITY OF RAIN REACHING THE GROUND BUT NOT REMOVE IT ENTIRELY GIVEN THE STRONG DYNAMICS IN PLAY. THESE CLOUDS ACROSS EASTERN WISCONSIN SHOULD CLEAR OUT BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE HIGH BUILDS EAST AND CLEARS OUT THE MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL RESIDE OVER THE REGION ON THURSDAY NIGHT.
EXPECT THE BULK OF THE FORECAST AREA TO STAY ABOVE FREEZING.
310 PM MDT WED APR 29 2015 UPPER RIDGE OVER THE AREA TODAY HAS SUPPRESSED CONVECTION OVER THE AREA.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS INDIANA FROM TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS GOING TO FOLLOW THE FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST.
DRY NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AND A RIDGE AT THE SURFACE HAS RESULTED IN CLEAR SKIES ACROSS ALL BUT THE NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS AROUND CHILDRESS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 5-8 DEGREES WARMER TOMORROW THAN TODAY THANKS TO THE RETURN OF SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND AMPLE SUNSHINE.
PACIFIC COLD FRONT STILL ON TRACK TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. A PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN BETWEEN 21-00Z.
252 PM EDT WED APR 29 2015 MAIN CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT IS STILL PROGGED TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA LATER THIS EVENING WITH A SLIGHT POSSIBILITY OF ADDITIONAL ORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OUT AHEAD OF IT. THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT SHOULD THEN CLEAR THE AREA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY TAKING VIRTUALLY ALL OF THE PRECIPITATION WITH IT.
353 PM EDT WED APR 29 2015 A SOUTHERN STREAM LOW IS CURRENTLY PUSHING EWD TOWARD THE ATLANTIC COAST AS A NORTHERN STREAM CLOSED LOW TRACKS SWD FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE CLOSED LOW WILL QUICKLY APPROACH EAST KENTUCKY AND THEN MOVE OVER OUR AREA BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH PLENTY OF MID LEVEL ENERGY AND A CORE OF COLDER 500 MB TEMPS.
/ISSUED 336 AM CDT WED APR 29 2015/ A PLEASANT AND DRY WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS TODAY AND THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS ACROSS THE STATE.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION WILL RESULT IN A RAPID WARMING TREND ON THURSDAY WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES 15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON AS A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHED INLAND NORTH OF THE REGION EARLIER TODAY. THIS MUCH WARMER AIR ALOFT COMBINED WITH LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING OVER THE REGION SHOULD RESULT IN A RAPID WARMING TREND ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE 10 TO 20 DEGREES WARMER THAN THIS AFTERNOON UNDER SUNNY SKIES.
An upper level ridge will extend from the Desert Southwest northward across the Rockies and northern Plains through tonight, with an upper level trough over the eastern CONUS. After a chilly start to the day, temperatures will rebound nicely this afternoon with highs in the lower to mid 70s. Quiet weather through the rest of the week as a ridge develops aloft over the Southwest into west Texas.
AN UPPER TROUGH OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WAS MOVING THROUGH WESTERN ESPECIALLY NORTH OF SALEM AND ESPECIALLY OVER THE COAST RANGE. THIS TROUGH HAS LOWERED TEMPS AS WELL TODAY. ONCE THE UPPER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH AND THAT BAND WEAKENS.
SLIGHTLY COOLER MOIST AIR TIED TO AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL BE PUSHING DOWN LAKE MICHIGAN BRINGING CLOUDY SKIES TO THE LAKESHORE AREAS ON THURSDAY MORNING. SOME RAIN OVER THE LAKE IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION IN THE MORNING HOURS AS THE TROUGH PUSHES THROUGH. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPS IN THE MID 60S INLAND AND IN THE LOW 50S NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN.
700 PM EDT WED APR 29 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE OFF TO THE EAST TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
HIGHS TODAY WILL REACH INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S. EXCEPT IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S CLOSER TO THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE. AN UPPER LOW WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN TONIGHT. CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL KEEP LOWS A LITTLE WARMER THAN THE PAST COUPLE OF NIGHT. THOUGH WITH CENTROID OF ANTICYCLONE UPSTREAM /90W/ AND FCST SFC TEMPS 36-38F WILL ONLY MAKE MENTION OF POTNL IN HWO FOR NOW GIVEN UNCERTAINTY.
AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE FOUR STATE REGION GIVING WAY TO DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS TODAY AND TONIGHT.
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON THE COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM NWRN MT INTO CENTRAL ID. THIS COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVING EWD AND ENTER OUR NWRN ZONES THIS EVENING AND ENTER INTO OUR CENTRAL ZONES THURSDAY MORNING WITH SOME GUSTY NORTH WIND. COOLER BEHIND THE COLD FRONT BY 10-15 DEGREES. THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
DRY BUT COOL CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S.
TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT STRETCHING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL HELP TEMPERATURES WARM THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS REACHING THE LOWER TO MID 70S FOR HIGHS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE 40S ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. WARMER WITH AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS AND RIDGES. NAMELY THE PALMER AND RATON RIDGES.
415 PM EDT WED APR 29 2015 A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ALONG THE GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY.
QUIET AND COOL NIGHT IN STORE AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS THE AREA. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL MODIFY THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL LEAD TO WARMER HIGHS THU WITH MOST AREAS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER DRY DAY FOR CENTRAL INDIANA TODAY.
FORECAST AREA WILL BE UNDER A COOLER WESTERLY FLOW FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT.
227 PM MDT WED APR 29 2015 HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BRING CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT THOUGH SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE PUSHING INTO NE UT/NW CO BY MORNING. TEMPS WILL BE A BIT WARMER TONIGHT THAN LAST NIGHT AS THE 700 MB THERMAL RIDGE SHIFTS OVERHEAD. A STREAM OF H5 VORTICITY AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BRING CLOUDINESS TO NE UTAH AND NW COLORADO THURSDAY MORNING. AND THEN HELP TO INITIATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THESE AREAS AND OVER THE MOUNTAINS THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON AS THE ENERGY STREAMS CLOCKWISE AROUND THE PREVAILING HIGH PRESSURE. A PASSING SHALLOW COLD FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHERN US ROCKIES WILL LEAVE AN EAST TO WEST ORIENTED PIECE OF WEAK ENERGY JUST NORTH OF UTAH AND COLORADO BY THURSDAY NIGHT.
/ISSUED 302 AM CDT Wed Apr 29 2015/ Light winds, clear skies and cool surface ridging has led to temperatures rapidly cooling into the 30s and 40s overnight tonight. Could even see some near or below freezing temps near the Davis Mtns and Marfa Plateau by sunrise. Still expecting a warming trend through the end of the week as upper ridging slowly moves east over the area by the weekend. Meanwhile at the surface, lee troughing will strengthen, promoting the return of southerly flow to the region.
534 PM EDT WED APR 29 2015 A LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA WILL DEEPEN AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH THURSDAY.
THE CLOSED LOW HAS NOW SHIFTED EAST OF ALABAMA AND HAS WEAKENED AND BECOME AN OPEN WAVE.
RIDGE AXIS IS CURRENTLY OVERHEAD WITH 700MB TEMPS OF 7-9C. HOWEVER A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION BY MIDDAY. IT WILL BE COOLER ON FRI ESPECIALLY OVER THE PLAINS IN THE POST FRONTAL AIRMASS.
IT WILL TURN OUT TO BE A NICE LATE APRIL DAY WITH LIGHT WINDS AND HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM ON THE POSITIVE SIDE OF CLIMATOLOGY AFTER TODAY WITH RIDGING BUILDING OVERHEAD. THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND WITH A FEW WEAK SHORT WAVES TRANSVERSING THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY.
1239 PM CDT WED APR 29 2015 WV IMAGERY SHOWING A WELL AMPLIFIED PATTERN WITH A LARGE UPPER RIDGE SITTING OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE WRN/CNTRL CONUS. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT PAC NW TROF WILL QUICKLY SCOOT ALONG THE U. AND BY THURSDAY NIGHT DRAG A COLD FRONT INTO THE DAKOTAS WITH PCPN ACTIVITY DEVELOPING ALONG AXIS OF MOIST BNDRY LYR CONVERGENCE.
1235 PM CDT WED APR 29 2015 UPDATED AVIATION SECTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE THE SAME TROFFY REGIME CONTINUES IN THE SHORT TERM. A 2NDARY LOW ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE MEAN LONG WAVE TROF AND TAKES A SIMILAR TRACK. A DEEPENING CLOSED LOW DROPS DUE SOUTH FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE MID OHIO VALLEY IN THE 36-48 HOUR RANGE.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CAUSE SHOWERS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. FORECAST AREA REMAINS UNDER RIDGING CONDITIONS WHILE AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE ARE LOCATED ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND EAST OF NOVA SCOTIA. MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUD DECKS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING AS UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. INCREASING MOISTURE PROFILES ALONG THE RIDGES WILL ALLOW FOR SHOWERS TO DEVELOP TONIGHT AS AFOREMENTIONED LOW ENHANCES FORCING. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE THURSDAY AS THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO SHIFT OVER THE CENTRAL OHIO VALLEY. AS THE UPPER LOW DEPARTS TOWARDS THE MID-ATLANTIC THURSDAY NIGHT.
1228 PM CDT WED APR 29 2015 WITH UPPER LOW DEPARTING. A 1021MB HIGH WAS LOCATED OVER WEST TEXAS AND BROAD RIDGE AXIS ENTENDED NORTH ALONG THE PLAINS. UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED THE TROUGH AXIS FROM CENTRAL TENNESSEE TO NORTHWEST LOUISIANA TO NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS.
1226 PM CDT WED APR 29 2015 UA ANALYSIS FROM EARLIER THIS EVENING HAD RIDGING EXTENDING FROM SO CAL NEWD INTO THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE NW TERRITORIES. EAST OF THE RIDGE. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM HUDSON BAY SWD TO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. EAST OF THE TROUGH. A DECENT UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS NOTED SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA. HIGH PRESSURE WAS ANCHORED ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES NOTED. HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRANSITION EAST INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TODAY AND TONIGHT. WENT WITH THE WARMER MAV TEMPS FOR TODAY AS THE LOWER TO MID 70S SEEM PLAUSIBLE GIVEN THE FCSTD H85 TEMPS IN THE NAM. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL OFF TO THE LOWER 40S ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
400 PM CDT WED APR 29 2015 ANOTHER COOL NIGHT IS IN STORE FOR THE REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SETTLES ACROSS THE FOUR STATE REGION. A CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL MOVE SOUTH FROM EASTERN CANADA ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE OHIO AND EASTERN TENNESSEE VALLEY. PROVIDING A DRY BACK DOOR COLD FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA.
A WARMING TREND COMMENCES TODAY WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDING OVER THE STATE.
MAIN ISSUE TODAY WILL BE ELEVATED NRLY WINDS AS A REASONABLY TIGHT GRADIENT LINGERS BEHIND DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE TO OUR EAST. LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS MOVING AWAY FROM THE REGION THIS MORNING AND INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM A COOLER AIR MASS HAS MOVED IN. ALTHOUGH HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING IN AT THE SURFACE AN UPPER LOW AND POST FRONTAL STRATUS HAS KEPT THE AREA SHROUDED IN CLOUD COVER FOR MOST OF THE PAST EVENING AND INTO EARLY THIS MORNING. TODAY WITH A COOLER AIR MASS IN PLACE TEMPS WILL AGAIN RUN SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL, HOWEVER SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY.
THE NEXT FEATURE IS A CLOSED LOW OVER CENTRAL ONTARIO DROPPING SOUTH TODAY. THAT WAVE WILL EVENTUALLY DRAG A SURFACE COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN IL THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY BE LIGHT NORTHERLY TODAY, WITH A SHIFT MORE TO THE NORTHEAST AND EAST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. UPPER LOW NOW CLOSING OFF OVER CENTRAL ONTARIO. HAVE LINGERED SOME 20% CHANCES EAST OF I-57 INTO THURSDAY WITH THE LOW TRACK NEARBY.
1239 PM CDT WED APR 29 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DROP SOUTH INTO FAR EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY THEN CONTINUE SOUTH TONIGHT. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL HELP AND KEEP MOST OF THE NORTHLAND DRY AND MILD TODAY. A STRONGER LAKE BREEZE IS EXPECTED KEEPING AREAS NEAR THE LAKE COOLER.
418 PM EDT WED APR 29 2015 A POTENT UPPER LOW WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. AND COOLER TEMPERATURES.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SHOULD BE SUFFICE TO KEEP ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY FROM FORMING.
1240 PM PDT WED APR 29 2015 JUST SENT A QUICK UPDATE TO ACCOUNT FOR WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY ACROSS THE COASTAL AND VALLEY LOCATIONS. WILL BE AS WARM OR A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN Y'DAY.
133 PM EDT WED APR 29 2015 THE EVER-PRESENT UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO SHIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVER THE WEEKEND.
The amplified pattern across the country today continues to leave the Lower Missouri River Valley under the influence of some lovely spring weather as the meridional flow keeps dry air and seasonally normal temperatures in place through the rest of the week.
158 PM EDT WED APR 29 2015 HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR WILL MOVE EAST TODAY. A POTENT UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. DRY WEATHER AND WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL ACCOMPANY HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE WEEKEND. NOW HAVE THE HIGHS RANGING THE MID TO UPPER 60S. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE UPPER LOW. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO FORM ON THURSDAY UNTIL THE UPPER LOW MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE FA TO EASTERN KENTUCKY THURSDAY NIGHT.
A 500 MB TROUGH OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN TX WILL SAG SOUTHWARDS AND WILL WEAKEN STEADILY OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR 500 MB RIDGING TO OUR WEST TO BUILD EAST THROUGH THURS AND THURS NIGHT. AT THE SURFACE THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND WESTERN GULF COAST WILL SLIDE FURTHER EAST ALSO ALLOWING FOR THE COOL NORTHERLY SURFACE FLOW TO SLACKEN WITH THE SURFACE WINDS BECOMING MORE VARIABLE THROUGH TONIGHT. LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON A WEAK E-SE SURFACE FLOW WILL RETURN WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR THE WAA TO INCREASE AND FOR THE LOW LEVEL DEWPOINTS TO START REBOUNDING. WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE SLIGHTLY WARMER MAV AND ECMWF TEMP GUIDANCE THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT.
Overnight temperatures will not be quite as cool, but most areas will again fall into the low/mid 40s, although the I-10 corridor should remain near 50 degrees. Sunny and warm conditions are forecast again on Thursday with highs primarily in the lower 80s.
It was a warm, spring afternoon across the region as upper level ridge continues to build eastward over the plains, while minor mid level perturbations were generating scattered to broken clouds across parts of central Kansas. Forecast lows are expected to be pretty similar to this morning in the lower to middle 40s. On Thursday, much of eastern Kansas remains under the influence of the high pressure while a lee trough develops over western Kansas.
HIGHS TODAY WILL REACH INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S. EXCEPT IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S CLOSER TO THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE. FORECAST PERIOD TO BEGIN WITH DEPARTING UPPER LOW SOUTH OF THE CWA SHEARING OUT AND SLIDING TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. 120M HEIGHT RISES IN ITS WAKE THURSDAY NIGHT AS SHORT WAVE RIDGING QUICKLY FILLS IN BEHIND AND SETS THE STAGE FOR A NOTICEABLE WARMING TREND INTO THE WEEKEND.
FAIRLY QUIET AND WARMER WEATHER HIGHLIGHT THIS PERIOD. INCREASING ATMOSPHERIC THICKNESS IN RESPONSE TO UPPER RIDGING APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL SUPPORT DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 70S ONCE AGAIN TODAY. COULD SEE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS FIRE ALONG THE LEE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS THURSDAY LATE AFTERNOON.
THE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE THANKS TO UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVES ROTATING AROUND THE MAIN UPPER LOW WHICH IS CURRENTLY DIGGING INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN TRANSITION DOWN THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AS WE END THE WEEK AND MOVE INTO THE WEEKEND AND THEN SETTLING OVER THE DEEP SOUTH.
LATEST AVAILABLE IR IMAGERY AS OF 200 PM OVERLAID WITH MODEL STREAMLINE ANALYSIS DEPICTS A BLOCKY NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ORIENTED ANTICYCLONE SITUATED FROM WYOMING TO BAJA CALIFORNIA. BUT DOWNSTREAM OF THAT EXISTS A LOW AMPLITUDE CYCLONIC PATTERN WITH A WELL DEFINED POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH AXIS SITUATED FROM LAKE SUPERIOR TO NORTHERN OLD MEXICO. AT THE SURFACE AND IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE LEVELS. LATEST AVAILABLE VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY OVERLAID WITH LATEST AVAILABLE MARINE AND LAND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND ANALYSIS DETAIL A SLOWLY STRENGTHENING 1004 MB LOW PRESSURE NEAR MELBOURNE. WITH ANOTHER LOWER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. LOCATION IN THE BOTH THE LOWER AND UPPER KEYS HAVE RECEIVED RAINFALL ESTIMATES IN EXCESS OF 5 INCHES SINCE MIDNIGHT. WILL MAINTAIN THE HIGH CHANCE POPS TONIGHT THEN DROPPING TO LOW CHANCE BY TOMORROW NIGHT.
WARMER AIR WILL ALSO BEGIN MOVING BACK INTO THE REGION. FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO THURS/THURS NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE DAKOTAS.
324 PM EDT WED APR 29 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT KICKED EAST OF TEXAS OVERNIGHT HAS LEFT AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON. AN UPPER LOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE OHIO VALLEY REGION ON THURSDAY. INCREASING CLOUDS THURSDAY AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH THE EXPECTED NW FLOW DISTURBANCE HAS WARRANTED LEANING SLIGHTLY COOLER THEN GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS ON THURSDAY.
LIGHT RAIN WAS REPORTED AT CORNING AR WHILE WALNUT RIDGE AR REPORTED A WIND GUST TO NEAR 40 MPH WITH ONE OF THE SHOWERS.