Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
An upper level low will be located near the Red River today with dry air in place across South Central Texas. No stratus this morning to contend with, so we should see warmer temperatures today across central and eastern areas, compared to yesterday where clouds held temperatures lower. For most areas we have went warmer for highs today than the NBM, given the dry air in place. The upper level low is forecast to move southeast tonight and Friday into East Texas. Otherwise, high temperatures on Friday will be even warmer than today, with most locations across the Hill Country and along and east of I-35 and I-37 well into the mid 90s, and western and southwestern areas in the upper 90s to around 102.
345 AM CDT Thu Sep 16 2021 (Issued 344 AM CDT Thu Sep 16 2021) Today through Friday night: Southerly winds will pick up today, as high continues to depart to the east and low pressure approaches from the west. It will be a little cooler near the lake as winds become southeasterly by the afternoon. Southerly winds will continue Friday as the low and an associated cold front draw near.
(Today and tonight) An upper level ridge is centered across the Desert Southwest, while an upper level low is located across North Texas. This upper level low will have little effect on the area, besides helping to keep temperatures near seasonal normals.
A cold front will bring much cooler weather for Friday along with a chance for rain.
1121 PM CDT Wed Sep 15 2021 The temperature forecast for this afternoon remains on track as temperatures have warmed into the low to mid 80s area-wide behind this morning's cold front. We will generally top out in the mid 80s for highs as high pressure centered near the Iowa-Illinois border continues to bring light northeast winds into the region under mostly sunny skies. High temperatures begin to rebound back above average on Thursday as surface winds turn southerly and the high pressure center pushes farther east into the eastern Great Lakes region. The warming trend continues for Friday into the upcoming weekend as an upper level ridge builds into the central CONUS.
Skies will continue to be mostly cloudy as a whole and temperatures should only drop about 5 more degrees into the lower to mid 60s. CDG Chattanooga Airport, TN 80 69 82 68 85 / 50 20 50 30 50 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 83 66 84 68 86 / 50 20 40 20 40 Oak Ridge, TN 83 66 84 67 86 / 50 10 40 20 40 Tri Cities Airport, TN 83 63 83 64 85 / 30 10 40 10 40.
/Today through Friday/ An area of low pressure, the remnants of Nicholas, continues to linger across coastal south-central Louisiana this morning. Accordingly, this added instability and resulting cloudcover will limit afternoon high temperatures to the low to mid 80s today and a couple degrees warmer on Friday.
Southerly flow drew warmer air back into the region again today. By 2 PM temperatures had reached the low 80s. Southerly winds will pick up by the early hours of Thursday morning, ahead of an approaching cold front.
GOES nighttime microphysics imagery showing areas of fog and low stratus developing and/or expanding in wake of yesterday's cold front as skies clear. Have low-end POPs from the Laurels through the higher terrain of WV. Friday will be a near repeat of Thursday, but probably a few degrees warmer thanks to some modest warm advection in the boundary layer.
342 AM CDT Thu Sep 16 2021 An expansive high pressure system centered in southern Quebec was the dominant weather feature and was resulting in seasonably cool temperatures and some fog early this morning. Highs today will be a bit warmer and predominately in the mid to upper 80s. Temperatures will rebound back upward as the westward extent of surface ridging erodes and surface winds become more southeasterly bringing high dew points into the area. This vort max will continue to lift northeastward across southeast MO and southwest IL on Friday in weak southerly steering flow resulting from an upper low in the southern Plains and weak upper high center in the OH/PA region. Temperatures are expected to remain above normal, and except for southern areas, they will be a few degrees warmer.
413 AM EDT Thu Sep 16 2021 High pressure overhead this morning will slowly drift east across New England this afternoon before moving off the coast tonight and Friday.
Friday the mid-level ridge expands ewd and much drier low-level air will overspread much of the wrn area, a brief -SHRA/-TSRA will attempt to develop near the Davis Mtns, but won't amount to much. Little change in temps today U80s-M90s most areas, but with the increased presence of the aforementioned ridge high temps on Fri will increase with M90s-N100, except U80s-N90 mtns and 100-105 Rio Grande expected.
2 am surface map indicated a large Canadian high over the eastern Great Lakes with ridging extending southwest across central IL. The high will shift farther east today, allowing light southeast flow to develop. Tonight a dry column will support more clear skies, but due to the increased boundary layer moisture lows will be several degrees warmer but still comfortable in the upper 50s and lower 60s. Friday, an upper wave passing well to our north will push a cold front into northern IL. All guidance suggests the front will dissipate as it moves away from upper support into ridging aloft, and forecast soundings look capped so will only keep slight chance pops over the far north for the afternoon and evening.
338 AM CDT Thu Sep 16 2021 A weakness/closed circulation in the analyzed ridging across the southern CONUS is expected to reside near KSPS today weakening slowly with time. The upper cutoff low over North Texas will be in the process of slowly shifting eastward on Friday while 500mb ridging simultaneously builds northeastward, resulting in modest height rises over West Texas. Friday will therefore mark the beginning of a stretch of warmer days across the area, with highs reaching the low to mid 90s.
However, despite the low confidence, brief periods of MVFR conditions can't be completely ruled out for brief patchy fog across those sites late tonight into early tomorrow morning. Diffuse surface ridging remains over the region tonight before weak troughing replaces this throughout the day on Thursday.
244 AM CDT Thu Sep 16 2021 Temperatures are cooler from 24 hours ago with lots of locations reporting fog. Tomorrow an upper level low develops to the southwest over eastern TX and meanders eastward through the weekend.
By Thursday morning, rain chances will rise once again, with the highest chances remaining in central & SE MS.
436 AM CDT Thu Sep 16 2021 Current surface analysis places low over northern Saskatchewan/Manitoba, with cold front draped over North Dakota and secondary low noted over far southeast Montana. Upper level analysis places low over northern Saskatchewan, with trough dropping to the southwest. Quiet weather and warming temperatures expected to close out the work week going into the weekend as an upper ridge passes through.
/Issued 419 AM CDT Thu Sep 16 2021/ A weak upper level low pressure system will wobble around just to our south over the next several days. This will likely result in at least isolated afternoon convection each day, mainly over the higher terrain areas.
Forecast Summary: After a warm and windy day today, a cold front moving through tonight and Friday will bring a decent chance for showers and thunderstorms and cooler temperatures. Things warm up again over the weekend, ahead of a low pressure system approaching from the west.
321 AM MDT Thu Sep 16 2021 A cold front moved across the area yesterday and brought cooler air into the region. Breezy north/northwesterly winds will supply cooler air through the day and result in high temperatures generally in the 60s over most of the area with lower 70s over parts of southeast Montana and north central Wyoming. Tonight into Friday, weak upper-level ridging will bring mostly clear skies and precipitation-free weather to the Northern Rockies. Then on Friday a mid-level jet will move over the Rockies from western Canada to Montana and produce lee troughing, which will facilitate low-level southerly flow over our area. This southerly flow will bring in much warmer air, with high temperatures reaching the 70s and lower 80s on Friday.
Even though weak mid level troughing will begin to build today, the overall pattern will be mainly hot and dry, except for a possible stray shower or thunderstorm that may drift northward across the Rio Grande this afternoon and evening, as the latest HRRR is suggesting. As this low drifts into East Texas on Friday, an axis of positive vorticity will drape across the northwest Gulf and provide a focus for convection over the lower Texas coastal waters and the southeast portion of our CWA.
/issued 338 AM CDT Thu Sep 16 2021/ A weakness/closed circulation in the analyzed ridging across the southern CONUS is expected to reside near KSPS today weakening slowly with time. The upper cutoff low over North Texas will be in the process of slowly shifting eastward on Friday while 500mb ridging simultaneously builds northeastward, resulting in modest height rises over West Texas. Friday will therefore mark the beginning of a stretch of warmer days across the area, with highs reaching the low to mid 90s.
(Issued 344 AM CDT Thu Sep 16 2021) Today through Friday night: Southerly winds will pick up today, as high continues to depart to the east and low pressure approaches from the west. It will be a little cooler near the lake as winds become southeasterly by the afternoon. Southerly winds will continue Friday as the low and an associated cold front draw near.
1002 AM EDT Thu Sep 16 2021 High pressure will extend across the eastern Great Lakes today. The high will move east tonight while a weak frontal boundary pushes into the western Great Lakes.
As the mid-level ridge discussed above translates eastward tonight and tomorrow, winds aloft will veer to the southwest downstream from the cutoff upper low drifting southeastward across the Southern Plains. This, along with an increase in southerly flow in the low- levels, will lead to a notable increase in deep-layer moisture, as precipitable water values will increase to around or slightly above 2 inches by Friday afternoon.
Temperatures are cooler from 24 hours ago with lots of locations reporting fog. Tomorrow an upper level low develops to the southwest over eastern TX and meanders eastward through the weekend.
Over the course of the day, the mid/upper-level vorticity center from Nicholas will begin to lift northeastward from southern AL into central GA, driven by the development of a low-amplitude ridge aloft to the east of a developing cutoff upper low over the Red River Valley of OK/TX. As the mid-level ridge discussed above translates eastward tonight and tomorrow, winds aloft will veer to the southwest downstream from the cutoff upper low drifting southeastward across the Southern Plains. This, along with an increase in southerly flow in the low- levels, will lead to a notable increase in deep-layer moisture, as precipitable water values will increase to around or slightly above 2 inches by Friday afternoon.
Most of the region should be dry with the exception of the far sern portion of the forecast area in WV, where continued llvl moisture in the vicinity of a cold front should trigger isolated, afternoon thunderstorms east of the I-79/I-68 corridor. GOES nighttime microphysics imagery showing areas of fog and low stratus developing and/or expanding in wake of yesterday's cold front as skies clear. Have low-end POPs from the Laurels through the higher terrain of WV. Friday will be a near repeat of Thursday, but probably a few degrees warmer thanks to some modest warm advection in the boundary layer.
456 AM CDT Thu Sep 16 2021 An area of low pressure across the south Louisiana gulf coast will maintain northeast winds around 5 knots at the start of the terminal forecast period, increasing to near 10 knots later today. /Today through Friday/ An area of low pressure, the remnants of Nicholas, continues to linger across coastal south-central Louisiana this morning. Accordingly, this added instability and resulting cloudcover will limit afternoon high temperatures to the low to mid 80s today and a couple degrees warmer on Friday.
Low temperatures across the islands again dipped into the mid-70s, which is a few degrees cooler than climatology.
419 AM CDT Thu Sep 16 2021 A weak upper level low pressure system will wobble around just to our south over the next several days. This will likely result in at least isolated afternoon convection each day, mainly over the higher terrain areas.
The ridge over the desert southwest continues to break down as broad troughiness develops over northern tier states. As the more amplified flow continues to develop over the weekend, we'll see strong high pressure over eastern states and a broad trough digging into the region north of our area.
(Today and tonight) Thursday is expected to remain quiet, as the upper level low exits to the southeast and ridging begins to establish itself over the region.
Otherwise, today will be a dry day as weak high pressure builds in at the surface and aloft. The low levels remain rather sticky though, with dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s.
556 AM CDT Thu Sep 16 2021 (Today and tonight) Thursday is expected to remain quiet, as the upper level low exits to the southeast and ridging begins to establish itself over the region.
Current surface analysis places low over northern Saskatchewan/Manitoba, with cold front draped over North Dakota and secondary low noted over far southeast Montana. Upper level analysis places low over northern Saskatchewan, with trough dropping to the southwest. Quiet weather and warming temperatures expected to close out the work week going into the weekend as an upper ridge passes through.
629 AM CDT Thu Sep 16 2021 (Today and tonight) An upper level ridge is centered across the Desert Southwest, while an upper level low is located across North Texas. This upper level low will have little effect on the area, besides helping to keep temperatures near seasonal normals.
Highs today will top out in the upper 80s to lower 90s and lows in the low to mid 70s.
Upper ridging builds across the southern Rockies going into the weekend, which will lead to unseasonably warm temperatures returning to the area for the weekend, with dry weather. Timing of the associated cold front with this system, in the medium range models, is now faster than previous runs, by about 12-24 hours, sweeping the front across the area as early as Mon night or early Tue instead of Tue afternoon. Confidence is increasing that this system will bring much cooler air with it, with bonifide fall temperatures spreading south across the region, with lows in the 40s-50s, and highs in the 60s-70s.
644 AM CDT Thu Sep 16 2021 An expansive high pressure system centered in southern Quebec was the dominant weather feature and was resulting in seasonably cool temperatures and some fog early this morning. Highs today will be a bit warmer and predominately in the mid to upper 80s. Temperatures will rebound back upward as the westward extent of surface ridging erodes and surface winds become more southeasterly bringing high dew points into the area. This vort max will continue to lift northeastward across southeast MO and southwest IL on Friday in weak southerly steering flow resulting from an upper low in the southern Plains and weak upper high center in the OH/PA region. Temperatures are expected to remain above normal, and except for southern areas, they will be a few degrees warmer.
This should promote the development of isolated showers and thunderstorms across the higher terrain of WV, mainly east of the I-79/I-80 corridor, later this afternoon through early eve.
959 AM EDT Thu Sep 16 2021 High pressure will drift east across New England this afternoon before moving off the coast tonight and Friday.
For Friday, expect another mostly sunny day with highs topping out in the lower to mid 80s. A vort max near the ArkLaTex region and the messy remnants of post- tropical cyclone Nicholas will slowly interact with each other and meander across much of the Gulf Coast states. Meanwhile, upper level ridging over the desert Southwest and northern Mexico will begin to exert its influence into the Ohio Valley. The upper level ridge will help to suppress precipitation and convective chances across our northern zones, but have lesser influence across portions of central and southern Kentucky where rain/storm chances will be possible.
Southwest flow aloft will set up ahead of a digging trough along the west coast tomorrow. This will allow for warmer temperatures and breezy southwesterly winds.
237 PM MDT Thu Sep 16 2021 The first cold front has pushed off to the southeast of the forecast area this afternoon with another cold front currently moving into northeastern Wyoming and far northwestern South Dakota.
This is ahead of an incoming cold front that currently runs from roughly Webster, SD to Valentine, NE. Corfidi vectors look to keep enough progression and 3 hr flash flood guidance between 2-3 inches should keep the excessive rainfall risk on the lower end. Upper level ridging builds and moves east through the weekend keeping our region void of any precipitation and with temperatures working back to the warm side of normal.
We'll turn our attention through the day to an incoming cold front, which is currently pushing through the Dakotas and into northwest Minnesota. With dewpoints still looking to mix out into the low 60s tomorrow, instability is expected to remain in short supply.
Upper level pattern begining to evolve with the upper level ridge easing off to the east and the upper low slowly approaching the coast. /issued 305 AM MST Thu Sep 16 2021/ The ridge over the desert southwest continues to break down as broad troughiness develops over northern tier states. As the more amplified flow continues to develop over the weekend, we'll see strong high pressure over eastern states and a broad trough digging into the region north of our area.
Had to redraw sky grids to account for further north and west expansion of cloud cover but solar radiation should help to thin this low level sky cover along its westward and northern flanks by this aftn.
In advance of this boundary is a broken cumulus congestus field which has overspread the Lower and Middle Keys, with an altostratus deck above it. The vertical development of the congestus has seemed somewhat limited so far, with only an area of showers developing in the Gulf waters well to the northwest of the Lower Keys. From a synoptic standpoint, The western hemisphere of the Atlantic ridge remains disrupted from the low north of the Bahamas. This has prevented the ridge from building into Florida and the southeast. As the low continues to move off to the north northeast, the ridge will slowly begin to build back into Florida behind it.
Mid/upper level low centered over western OK is not expected to influence the region much today as it remains nearly stationary.
A weak upper low was over the Red River with the forecast area between this and the mean westerlies to the north. Surface obs indicated a low pressure system near the MN/SD/ND state lines and a trough of low pressure extending south through the southern high plains. The majority of tonight is likely to be quiet with models keeping the upper low over the Red River south of the forecast area.
Friday morning, a cold front arrives in the Texas Panhandle and northeastern New Mexico and will move south during the day reaching the Permian Basin by mid afternoon. Once again, isolated showers and storms are expected in the Big Bend tomorrow with afternoon heating increasing instability in the higher terrain.
This upper low will push southeast through tomorrow evening, which should allow an upper ridge to build in from the Desert Southwest. Tomorrow will see high temperatures a few degrees warmer than today, or mainly in the mid 90s under sunny to partly cloudy skies.
Had to redraw sky grids to account for further north and west expansion of cloud cover but solar radiation should help to thin this low level sky cover along its westward and northern flanks by this aftn. /issued 456 AM CDT Thu Sep 16 2021/ An area of low pressure across the south Louisiana gulf coast will maintain northeast winds around 5 knots at the start of the terminal forecast period, increasing to near 10 knots later today.
This northern system will continue moving eastward driving a cold front south into the Central Plains tonight and Friday. This front will become diffuse Friday night across south central KS keeping the higher probabilities for showers and storms along the I-70 corridor on Friday afternoon. Further south, another day with above normal temperatures is anticipated with highs in the lower 90s along the OK state line.
Cold front will continue across Southwest Idaho this morning bringing gusts west-northwesterly winds. Temperatures will reach the low to mid 70s today. The next trough approaches the west coast tomorrow increase the southwesterly flow aloft and returning the smoke.
347 PM CDT Thu Sep 16 2021 Rainy weather appears in store for the Midsouth on Friday, ahead of a slow-moving weak upper low over east TX. An inverted surface pressure trof extending from the Arklamiss up the MS delta will provide some focus for convection, along with numerous boundaries from differential surface heating. Instability will wane Friday night, but scattered showers will likely continue, with the upper low nearly stalled over AR.
135 PM EDT Thu Sep 16 2021 High pressure will extend across the eastern Great Lakes today. The high will move east tonight while a weak frontal boundary pushes into the western Great Lakes.
The next cold front will be well to the west Friday so after any fog burns off will just have another scattered cu field across the area with southwest winds near 7 knots. The passing high pressure does bring light east-southeast flow and moisture flux off of Lake Erie resulting in some scattered to broken clouds across portions of Lower Michigan. With another day of high insolation, daytime high temperatures will reach the low to mid 80s for most of southeast Michigan.
235 PM CDT Thu Sep 16 2021 Showers are starting to develop over the east and south with an upper low just off to our east, and another upper low over the Plains. The low to our east will move northward, and the upper low to our west will sneak closer to the area allowing for additional southerly flow and moisture transport to the region.
1233 PM CDT Thu Sep 16 2021 An expansive high pressure system centered in southern Quebec was the dominant weather feature and was resulting in seasonably cool temperatures and some fog early this morning. Highs today will be a bit warmer and predominately in the mid to upper 80s. Temperatures will rebound back upward as the westward extent of surface ridging erodes and surface winds become more southeasterly bringing high dew points into the area. This vort max will continue to lift northeastward across southeast MO and southwest IL on Friday in weak southerly steering flow resulting from an upper low in the southern Plains and weak upper high center in the OH/PA region. Temperatures are expected to remain above normal, and except for southern areas, they will be a few degrees warmer.
Temperatures are expected to peak in the low 90s. The warm temperatures won't continue into tomorrow as a cold front will move through the area tonight. Depending on your location, temperatures should be 10 to 15 degrees cooler tomorrow than today.