Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
311 PM CDT WED SEP 9 2015 LARGE-SCALE PATTERN CHANGE WILL TAKE PLACE DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS A TROUGH IS CARVED OUT IN THE GREAT LAKES AND THE RIDGE AMPLIFIES OVER THE WESTERN US. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A COLD FRONT /CURRENTLY FROM ERN SD INTO WRN NEB PER 19Z SFC ANALYSIS/ TO DROP SEWD INTO THE CWA TONIGHT. THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM OF THE FORECAST IS DRY AND MUCH COOLER. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD THROUGH THE CWA FRI THU NIGHT THROUGH SAT WITH MUCH DRIER BOUNDARY LAYER AIR LEADING TO COOL NIGHTS AND MILD HIGH TEMPERATURES. AS THIS STRONGER UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS WE MAY SEE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA ON TUE NIGHT INTO WED.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE WEST COAST DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS. POSITIONING OF THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP HURRICANE LINDA SPINNING OFF OF THE BAJA PENINSULA WHILE PREVENTING HER MOISTURE FROM ENTERING THE REGION. AN UNEVENTFUL END OF THE WEEK IS PROJECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN STATES.
HOT TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WORK WEEK AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE STATE. SLIGHT COOLING IS POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST LATE IN THE WEEK WITH A GRADUAL COOLING TREND EXPECTED AREA-WIDE INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS. 24 HOUR TEMPERATURE TRENDS ARE ALREADY WARMER THAN YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME WITH 8 AM TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOWER 60S TO THE LOWER 70S. DEW POINT TEMPS ARE ALSO RUNNING A FEW DEGREES WARMER. THESE FACTORS AS WELL AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND A WARM AIRMASS OVER THE STATE WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER DAY OF HOT WEATHER ACROSS THE DISTRICT.
OTHERWISE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ALOFT. HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING OVER THE AREA AND THE AIR MASS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN DRY.
BUT WITH THE APPROACH OF A WEAK COLD FRONT. BY THURSDAY MORNING THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SHOULD BE PUSHING THROUGH CENTRAL MS.
AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER- LEVEL TROUGH WILL REACH THE NORTHWEST BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED TONIGHT AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. SO THE EASIEST WAY TO PUT THE TAFS WOULD BE VCTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS A TROUGH WILL SLIDE SLOWLY ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. 16 SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF WETTING RAINFALL ON THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST.
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS ALIGNED ROUGHLY PARALLEL TO THE MS RIVER THIS AFTERNOON. AS THESE FEATURES COMBINE WITH A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT. /ISSUED ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN/ LOTS OF SUN AND DEW POINTS IN THE LOW 70S ARE CAUSING A STICKY DAY TODAY ACROSS THE AREA. SOME OF OUR NW COUNTIES ARE ALREADY SEEING THE EFFECTS OF THE COLD FRONT AS CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED ACROSS THE MS RIVER.
306 PM EDT WED SEP 9 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND WILL STALL OFF THE COAST ON THURSDAY.
cn Surface cold front will be making its way across the FA today into tonight. Front's southeastward progress kind of hangs up along our boundary and overrunning occurs as a result of broader upper level troffing yet to push thru.
424 PM CDT WED SEP 9 2015 Forecast concerns begin with possible dense fog tonight and then Light winds overnight with cooler surface conditions and moisture trapped near the surface could mean some areas of fog. An upper level trough in the northwest flow will move down into the central plains tomorrow. ushering in a surface cold front and providing good isentropic lift to set the stage for some heavy rain in the CWA.
208 PM CDT WED SEP 9 2015 BIG PICTURE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/RAP ANALYSIS SHOWING A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER WESTERN ONTARIO WITH A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE NORTHER/CENTRAL CONUS. WILL SEE COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL WI ONLY IN THE 65-70 DEGREE RANGE AND LOW-MID 70S SOUTH OF I-90. WITH DEEPENING MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVERHEAD AND RATHER COLD 850MB TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE 1-5C RANGE.
414 PM EDT WED SEP 9 2015 A COLD FRONT OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL PUSH SLOWLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH TONIGHT. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM ALONG THE FRONT AND TRACK ACROSS THE DELMARVA PENINSULA THURSDAY. BRINGING A MUCH COOLER AND SHOWERY DAY TO MOST OF CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. COOLER AIR AND SOME PARTIAL CLEARING MAY WORK INTO THE NORTHWEST BY THU MORNING. RAINFALL AND LOW LVL COLD ADVECTION NORTH OF THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BRING A MUCH COOLER DAY. WENT WITH A COMPROMISE AND SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE HEDGING TOWARDS THE WARMER 850 MB TEMPS BUT ADJUSTING FOR CAD AND LITTLE IF ANY SUNSHINE ALONG WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. YIELDING UPPER 60S FOR MAXES ACROSS THE RIDGES AND LOWER TO MID 70S ELSEWHERE (WARMEST READINGS LOWER SUSQ). AND LINGER INTO THE EVENING OVER THE LOWER SUSQ.
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN TONIGHT PROVIDING FAVORABLE RADIATING CONDITIONS AS SKIES CLEAR. THE ONLY CONCERN IS THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY BE A BIT MORE STUBBORN TO GIVE WAY. WITH STRONG AND DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW FORECASTED TO CUTOFF OVER THE OHIO VALLEY DURING THE WEEKEND.
BUT SOME OF THE WARMER READINGS IN NORTH MISSISSIPPI MAY BE DIFFICULT TO REACH IF CLOUDS MOVE IN FASTER THAN EXPECTED. SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A WEAK COLD FRONT FROM LOWER MICHIGAN BACK THROUGH THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE TRENDS INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OFF THE LOUISIANA GULF COAST AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS STRETCHING FROM LAKE SUPERIOR BACK THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE MID SOUTH ARE IN THE LOWER 70S AT MOST LOCATIONS.
442 PM EDT WED SEP 9 2015 A FEW SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE BEHIND A COLD FRONT TONIGHT. COOLER AIR WILL SETTLE IN ON THURSDAY.
THE COLD FRONT IS ACROSS CENTRAL ARKANSAS AND MOVING SLOWLY SOUTH. /ISSUED 645 AM CDT WED SEP 9 2015/ SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH A COLD FRONT THAT WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE STATE TODAY AND THURSDAY.
320 PM EDT WED SEP 9 2015 SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/MARINE HIGH CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
337 PM EDT WED SEP 9 2015 SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TONIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF AN INCH OF RAIN IN THE WEST VIRGINIA/MARYLAND RIDGES. A PASSING SHOWER COULD REMAIN IN THE WV/MD RIDGES THURSDAY EVENING.
CLOSER TO THE UPPER TROUGH/850MB TROUGH AXIS THROUGH THURSDAY.
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE SPREAD ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.
312 PM CDT WED SEP 9 2015 (Tonight and Tomorrow) Scattered thunderstorms have developed this afternoon in the Concho Valley, as a very weak cold front slowly sags southward. Tomorrow with the very weakly defined cold frontal boundary farther south around the Interstate 10 corridor, have kept slight chance to chance for showers and thunderstorms in the forecast tomorrow mainly south of a San Saba to Mertzon line.
Towards the surface, lee troughing will continue tonight into tomorrow bringing southerly winds to the area. Storms then look to unzip southeastward along the cold front around sunset. As for temperatures, lows look to dip into the lower 60s tonight with highs around 90 degrees tomorrow. Ahead of the cold front, warmer and moist south winds of 15 to 25 mph, will push highs to around 90. Most models have thunderstorms developing by afternoon ahead of the cold front, with a possible MCS (Mesoscale Convective Complex) developing near and east of Dodge City by late afternoon and evening. The cold front will continue to push across western Kansas overnight with numerous thunderstorms developing. Some low stratus is also suggested towards dawn behind the cold front.
212 PM EDT WED SEP 9 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY DROP INTO THE GREAT LAKES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, BRINGING COOLER WEATHER AND CHANCES FOR SHOWERS. SECONDARY LOW WILL FORM ALONG THE FRONT DRAPED OVER ERN PA, AND THIS LOW WILL STRENGTHEN SOMEWHAT AS IS SLIDES UP THROUGH NY AND NEW ENGLAND TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.
328 PM CDT WED SEP 9 2015 An upper low across central Ontario Canada will amplify through the next 24 hours. An upper level trough will dig southeast on the west side of the upper low across the central plains Thursday and Thursday Night. Strong ascent ahead of the upper trough combined with surface convergence along the surface front will cause scattered thunderstorms to develop during the mid afternoon hours across the northern counties of the CWA. Southwest flow in the 850-700mb layer will persist atop the low level cold front Thursday night which may allow for backbuilding elevated storms to occur across parts of the CWA overnight. This could allow for locally heavy rains behind the actual cold front Thurs night so will keep high pops all night especially across the south.
1220 PM CDT WED SEP 9 2015 A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A LARGE RIDGE BUILDS IN OVER THE WEST COAST. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH THE REGION TODAY.
AN UPPER RIDGE OVER OUR AREA WILL BUILD AND AMPLIFY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
With an upper level trough axis across the MS Valley and an upper ridge centered over SE Florida, SW flow continues across the CWA and thus moisture from the Gulf of Mexico continues to be brought into the area.
A DEEP LAYERED ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS. LEADING US TO BELIEVE THIS ANTICYCLONE HAS EXPANDED WESTWARD. TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN INTO THE LOWER 90S WHILE DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
1141 PM CDT FRI OCT 16 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY WITH THE AXIS OF THE HIGH THROUGH CENTRAL IOWA. IF THAT CLOUD COVER REMAINS IN PLACE THEN OVERNIGHT LOWS MAY BE A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. AREAS THAT DO NOT HAVE A HARD FREEZE SHOULD BE CLOSE TO FREEZING AND A KILLING FROST SHOULD OCCUR WHICH WILL EFFECTIVELY END THE GROWING SEASON.
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT THAT HAS MOVED EASTWARD TO THE CAROLINA COAST. COLD FRONT HAS CLEARED THE AREA AND IS APPARENT ON RADAR AS IT MOVES NEAR THE NC COAST. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY. THOUGH A WEAK COLD ADVECTION AND A NORTHWESTERLY WIND MAY KEEP READINGS IN THE LOWER 60S FOR THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT. WHICH WILL PUT US SOLIDLY INTO THE 30S AND APPROACHING THE LOWER 30S ACROSS THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT. THOUGH MANY AREAS SHELTERED FROM THE WIND WILL LIKELY SEE FROST AND MAYBE TOUCH FREEZING FOR AN HOUR OR TWO.
710 PM EDT FRI OCT 16 2015 AN AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL DOMINATE THE REGIONAL WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES AVERAGING BELOW NORMAL.
954 PM EDT FRI OCT 16 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING BRINGING THE COLDEST AIR MASS OF THE SEASON THUS FAR.
916 PM CDT FRI OCT 16 2015 NO CHANGES NEEDED WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE LOW/MID 20S. SOME WEAK RETURN FLOW/WARM ADVECTION MAY HOLD TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO FREEZING ACROSS THE FAR WEST OTHERWISE LOOKING AT ANOTHER FREEZE TONIGHT. INCREASING WARM ADVECTION AND RETURN FLOW WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION SATURDAY HOWEVER WILL STILL REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES.
803 PM EDT FRI OCT 16 2015 COOLER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. THESE SHOWERS SEEM TO CORRESPOND WELL TO WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGHING MOVING THROUGH THE AREA AND MID LEVEL COOL POCKET/STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. MINS SHOULD DROP TO AROUND THE FREEZING MARK.
A WEAKENING BUT MOIST UPPER LOW WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS UTAH ON SATURDAY.
745 PM MST FRI OCT 16 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
633 PM CDT FRI OCT 16 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY WITH THE AXIS OF THE HIGH THROUGH CENTRAL IOWA. IF THAT CLOUD COVER REMAINS IN PLACE THEN OVERNIGHT LOWS MAY BE A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. AREAS THAT DO NOT HAVE A HARD FREEZE SHOULD BE CLOSE TO FREEZING AND A KILLING FROST SHOULD OCCUR WHICH WILL EFFECTIVELY END THE GROWING SEASON.
1108 PM EDT FRI OCT 16 2015 AN AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL DOMINATE THE REGIONAL WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES AVERAGING BELOW NORMAL.
522 PM MDT FRI OCT 16 2015 UPPER RIDGE AXIS CENTERED OVER THE ROCKIES WILL SLIDE EAST TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IN THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WILL ALSO SLIDE EAST WITH RESULTING INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY WINDS LOCALLY THROUGH TONIGHT. LEE TROUGH IN EASTERN COLORADO SATURDAY WILL DECREASE THE WINDS SOMEWHAT NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER AREA WITH BREEZY SOUTH WINDS CONTINUING FURTHER EAST THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THEN WARMING ON SATURDAY TO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S.
/ISSUED 347 PM CDT FRI OCT 16 2015/ DRY SURFACE RIDGING CONTINUED TO INFILTRATE THE SOUTH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL AMPLIFY FURTHER OVERNIGHT WHILE REMAINING POISED SQUARELY OVER THE REGION. UPPER RIDGING SHOULD BREED MOSTLY CLEAR ON SATURDAY DESPITE SUBTLE WEAKENING OF THE HEIGHT FIELDS. HIGH AMPLITUDE NEGATIVELY TILTED RIDGE WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY.
As a dry cold front moves through the area, winds will become northerly and increase a bit. Temperatures will drop quickly tonight between the frontal passage and the loss of solar heating, dipping into the low to mid 50s across the area, possibly into the upper 40s in parts of southeast AL and southwest GA.
1021 PM EDT FRI OCT 16 2015 CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THIS WEEKEND.
/ISSUED 331 PM CDT FRI OCT 16 2015/ Drier air within northerly flow continued to filter into Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas this afternoon behind the cold front that moved through yesterday/last night and ahead of a Canadian high pressure over the Central Plains. The afternoon cloud cover over the CWA is expected to increase in coverage and spread back across much of the region overnight tonight as an area of warm advection moves over the top of the high pressure system.
818 PM CDT FRI OCT 16 2015 WX MAP SHOWS COLD FRONT CROSSING INLAND SE TX/C LA THIS EVENING. SUFFICIENT MIXING TO THE SEA SFC OFTEN OCCURS AFTER A STRONG COLD FRONT WITH SUFFICIENT CAA BEHIND IT. WHILE RIDGING IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS BUILDS OVERHEAD UNDERNEATH WESTERLY FLOW FURTHER ALOFT.
625 PM CDT FRI OCT 16 2015 FOR 00Z TAFS /ISSUED 159 PM CDT FRI OCT 16 2015/ THE 19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED THAT THE COLD FRONT WAS MOVING THROUGH SOUTH ALABAMA WITH GENERALLY SUNNY SKIES AND DRIER AIR FILTERING INTO THE REGION.
608 PM CDT FRI OCT 16 2015 Upgraded the 6 southeast IL counties into the Freeze Warning from 1- 9 am on Saturday morning with lows in the lower 30s. MAV/MET guidance lows tonight are fairly similar and sided toward the slightly cooler MET guidance as this has verified best with last nights lows. Large 1033 mb Canadian high pressure near the NE/IA border to drift into eastern IA and central MO by dawn Saturday. Strong 1032 mb Canadian high pressure will become centered over west central IL by around noon Saturday. the high will continue to drift toward SE IL. widespread sub-freezing temperatures should develop once again.
COLD FRONT IS ALMOST ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE CWA AT THIS TIME. WHILE DEWPOINTS WILL MIX OUT TO THE LOWER 20S AND UPPER 30S DUE TO THE VERY DRY AIR MASS.
THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE NEAR LARGE BODIES OF WATER AND IN ELEVATED TERRAIN WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL BE 1-3 DEGREES WARMER. AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD SOUTHEAST OVER THE AREA. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD COURTESY OF THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE. KTW /ISSUED 159 PM CDT FRI OCT 16 2015/ THE 19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED THAT THE COLD FRONT WAS MOVING THROUGH SOUTH ALABAMA WITH GENERALLY SUNNY SKIES AND DRIER AIR FILTERING INTO THE REGION.
650 PM CDT FRI OCT 16 2015 WE HAVE LOWERED TEMPS A FEW DEGREES TONIGHT WITH COOL HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE VALLEY AT 12Z SAT. MOST AREAS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S WITH COLDER SPOTS PERHAPS IN THE LOW 20S. SOME WEAK RETURN FLOW/WARM ADVECTION MAY HOLD TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO FREEZING ACROSS THE FAR WEST OTHERWISE LOOKING AT ANOTHER FREEZE TONIGHT. INCREASING WARM ADVECTION AND RETURN FLOW WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION SATURDAY HOWEVER WILL STILL REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES.
/ISSUED 308 PM CDT FRI OCT 16 2015/ ANOTHER DRY DAY ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING FIFTEEN TO TWENTY DEGREES COOLER THAN 24 HOURS AGO.
1201 AM EDT SAT OCT 17 2015 AVIATION FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE INTERIOR SECTIONS HAVING THE GREATEST THREAT FOR A KILLING FREEZE.
WITH RIDGE OVER THE WEST AND A TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES/MID-ATLANTIC. WITH BROAD RIDGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL US. THE RIDGE AXIS CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN NEB/WESTERN IA WILL SLIDE EASTWARD TONIGHT. THINK THE POTENTIAL TO FALL TO NEAR-FREEZING TEMPS IS STILL THERE TONIGHT AT LEAST IN THE EASTERN CWA.
WITH THE HIGHEST MOISTURE CONFINED TO THE FAR SOUTHERN PENINSULA. BUT WILL KEEP AN EYE FOR COASTAL MIAMI- DADE PARTICULARLY DUE TO THE HIGH PW AIR IN PLACE THERE. MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS THE DRIER AIR WINNING OUT WITH TIME HERE OVER THE NEXT 24 HR WITH A SLIGHT DISPLACEMENT OF THE HIGHEST MOISTURE SOUTHWARD TOMORROW.
621 PM CDT FRI OCT 16 2015 Surface Canadian high pressure continues to settle into the region with a much cooler and drier airmass. Temperatures were in the low to mid 60s this afternoon with dew points in the mid 20s to low 30s. Wouldn't be surprised to see some low lying areas dip below freezing out east as well. The high pressure system will be over the area on Saturday with a light and variable wind. Highs will be similar, maybe a few degrees cooler on Saturday to what we had today. High pressure on Saturday night will shift a bit further southeast centered to the east of our CWA. Western portion of the CWA will likely be warmer, with a southeast wind setting up on the back side of the high pressure system.
919 PM EDT FRI OCT 16 2015 A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND EVEN THE NORTHERN VALLEYS LATER ON SATURDAY.
933 PM CDT FRI OCT 16 2015 RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED LIGHT WINDS AND DRY AIR ARE COMBINING TO ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RAPIDLY FALL BELOW FORECAST VALUES ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY NORTH TO THE CANADIAN BORDER WEST OF DEVILS LAKE BASIN. NOW LOOKS LIKE MIN TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOWER 20S THERE. WINDS WERE BECOMING LIGHT BENEATH A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE THAT EXTENDED FROM NORTHERN CANADA TO THE GULF COAST. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES BEGINS TO PUSH INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. THUS MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY. DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A WESTERN RIDGE MOVES INTO THE REGION SATURDAY EVENING.
725 PM EDT FRI OCT 16 2015 CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THIS WEEKEND.
1039 PM EDT FRI OCT 16 2015 SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. GRAUPEL MAY MIX IN WITH PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS WITH THE OOZ PITTSBURGH SOUNDING SHOWING THE FREEZING LEVEL JUST ABOVE 4000FT. UPPER TROUGHING. PERSISTENT BROAD UPPER TROUGHING IS PROGGED ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW FREEZING ARE LIKELY SAT NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL KEEP MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MT TONIGHT.
DRY COOL FRONT WAS PUSHING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ACROSS OUR SE GA ZONES THIS HOUR WITH DRIER AND COOLER NW FLOW IN ITS WAKE. LOW CHANCE OF MVFR DUE TO SHALLOW BR AT VQQ AND GNV LATE NIGHT DUE TO MOISTURE POOLING AHEAD OF SURFACE COLD FRONT BUT WITH NO FOG LAST NIGHT AND SREF PROBABILITIES OF MVFR CONDITIONS AT LESS THAN 0% TONIGHT.
909 PM MDT FRI OCT 16 2015 HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE AREA TONIGHT WILL SLIP EAST ON SATURDAY TO ALLOW A MOISTURE BARING UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE TO SWING UP FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. AND THE WHOLE AIRMASS IS A LITTLE WARMER ANYWAY.
926 PM CDT FRI OCT 16 2015 QUITE THE FALLISH PATTERN ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING WITH BROAD UPPER TROUGHING LAID OUT OVER THOSE AREAS. ALL WHILE LOW LEVEL RIDGING IS SPRAWLED NORTH-SOUTH JUST TO THE WEST OF THE MID/UPPER MISS RIVER VALLEY. AS THE RIDGE AXIS INCHES SLOWLY EASTWARD WITH TIME. AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A CLOSED LOW OVER HUDSON BAY WITH THE TROUGH EXTENDING DOMINATING THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. HIGH PRESSURE/COLD AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. PLAN ON HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 40S TO THE LOWER 40S WITH LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES DIPPING BACK INTO THE 20S AND LOWER 30S.
THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE NEAR LARGE BODIES OF WATER AND IN ELEVATED TERRAIN WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL BE 1-3 DEGREES WARMER.
Surface Canadian high pressure continues to settle into the region with a much cooler and drier airmass. Temperatures were in the low to mid 60s this afternoon with dew points in the mid 20s to low 30s. Wouldn't be surprised to see some low lying areas dip below freezing out east as well. The high pressure system will be over the area on Saturday with a light and variable wind. Highs will be similar, maybe a few degrees cooler on Saturday to what we had today. High pressure on Saturday night will shift a bit further southeast centered to the east of our CWA. Western portion of the CWA will likely be warmer, with a southeast wind setting up on the back side of the high pressure system.
IT WILL BE ANOTHER COOL NIGHT TONIGHT BUT A BIT WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT. LOW LYING AND SHELTERED AREAS WILL SEE TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING. THE WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWED A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE TO THE WEST WITH DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE CWA. A TROUGH EXTENDING FROM CALIFORNIA INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC WAS TRANSPORTING ABUNDANT MOISTURE INTO THE SOUTHWEST U. THE 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THE SHORT TERM AS THE UPPER RIDGE TO THE WEST SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE AND PLAINS THIS WEEKEND.
720 PM EDT FRI OCT 16 2015 SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. NO MAJOR CHANGES ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME AS RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW SCATTERED SHOWERS PRIMARILY NORTH OF PITTSBURGH AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. ISOLATED GRAUPEL IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THE FREEZING LVL AROUND 5000 FT ON THE MORNING SOUNDING. UPPER TROUGHING. PERSISTENT BROAD UPPER TROUGHING IS PROGGED ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW FREEZING ARE LIKELY SAT NIGHT.
520 PM MST FRI OCT 16 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
VALUES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH VALUES IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S NORTH.
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL UNITED STATES FEATURES A RIDGE AXIS IN THE WEST AND A BROAD LONG WAVE TROUGH IN THE EAST. THE FLORIDA KEYS LIE WITHIN THE CONFLUENT ZONE BETWEEN THE GYRE TO OUR SOUTHWEST AND THE BUILDING ANTICYCLONE ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. AMPLE MOISTURE IN THE LOW-MID TROPOSPHERE. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES WILL BUILD SOUTHEASTWARD OVERNIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
1123 PM EDT FRI OCT 16 2015 AN AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL DOMINATE THE REGIONAL WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES AVERAGING BELOW NORMAL.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TONIGHT WILL BRING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS.
WINDS WERE BECOMING LIGHT BENEATH A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE THAT EXTENDED FROM NORTHERN CANADA TO THE GULF COAST. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES BEGINS TO PUSH INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. THUS MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY. DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A WESTERN RIDGE MOVES INTO THE REGION SATURDAY EVENING.