Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1102 AM MDT Sat Apr 3 2021 The biggest story in the short term will be the high chances for record breaking high temperatures. A strong ridge has already brought warm temperatures to the region as most of us noticed yesterday. Outside of the warm temperatures, expect some clouds to develop over the higher terrain thanks to daytime heating and some high clouds brushing NE UT and NW CO heading into the evening hours. Tomorrow, a system will begin moving into the PacNW and flatten the ridge of high pressure.
FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TODAY. FOR EASTER SUNDAY, THERE IS A WEAK UPPER RIDGE IN PLACE WITH NEAR ZONAL FLOW.
The current trend is for these areas of -RA to diminish during the afternoon with the reduction of elevated forcing along the H700 theta-e ridge with the exception over the far SSW zones, where this weak forcing may persist through a portion of the afternoon. Limited insolation and the lack of significant warm advection upon the return of light SSE winds should result in cooler temps, and thus have lowered max temps some 2-4 degrees across the board to account for the diminished insolation. High and mid clouds will continue to spread from west to east, with minimum ceilings of about 8000 ft with the lowest layers.
114 PM MDT Sat Apr 3 2021 A strong ridge of high pressure will prevail over the region for the remainder of the weekend with a mix of sunshine and occasional cloudiness. The ridge turns a bit more zonal Sunday as 500 mb heights flatten a bit, but downslope westerly flow will compensate and keep our daytime highs similar to Saturdays (~70s).
237 PM CDT Sat Apr 3 2021 Flat upper level ridging will continue to build into the area through Sunday afternoon. Regardless still anticipate lows around 40 in the lower spots and in the lower to mid 40s in more elevated locations. Warm air aloft builds into the area on Sunday, about 2 to 4 degrees warmer at 850 mb, and along with the warmer start plan on aiming for highs about 5 to 8 degrees higher than today. By Sunday night the ridge continues to flatten as a weak wave moves out of the Rockies and onto the Plains. Will that be enough for some small hail if these thunderstorms can develop? Not completely out of the question but the freezing level is around 10 kft so a decent warm layer to help melt small hail.
WAA on the back side of the high should help keep temps for tonight much closer to climo than in the last few mornings.
148 PM CDT Sat Apr 3 2021 A weak trough of low pressure was passing through the area this afternoon.
325 PM CDT Sat Apr 3 2021 Warm and dry conditions continue across the area, as upper ridging remains in control overhead. Even with the light winds, temperatures should stay in the low 50s or upper 40s for lows. As lee troughing redevelops to the west tomorrow, the pressure gradient will strengthen again. Given continued ridging aloft and sunny skies, along with 850 mb temps 13-18C, temperatures should quickly warm. Highs in the low to mid 80s seem likely for most.
With the approach of an upper level trough, our rain chances will be on the increase after midnight for areas along the Rio Grande and Hill Country. The hi-res models differ in showing where the higher coverage of storms will reside. At this time, we will focus the higher rain chances across the Hill Country into the I-35 corridor Sunday morning as it appears the stronger lift and moisture will align here. For Sunday night, the upper level trough will move east of the region, leaving dry conditions along with overnight lows in the lower 50s to near 60s.
Ridge of high pressure will bring VFR flight conditions to all TAF sites through the next 24 hours. Diegan Chattanooga Airport, TN 38 70 44 73 48 / 0 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 37 67 43 71 47 / 0 0 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 36 68 43 72 47 / 0 0 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 33 65 40 70 44 / 0 0 0 0 0.
A minor disturbance under the ridge continues to track eastward across New Mexico.
/Updated at 1216 PM CDT Sat Apr 03 2021/ Mild and clear Spring day on tap as deep layer ridging dominates the short term weather pattern.
333 PM EDT Sat Apr 3 2021 High pressure centered over the southeast United States will remain in control across the area through Sunday.
A very weak low pressure system is crossing the region this afternoon and will continue into Canada overnight. 12z KGRB and KAPX soundings show very dry air still in place in the lower levels. Low temperatures tonight will be right around 30F, slightly warmer along the lakeshores. Pattern synopsis and forecast: High pressure will dominate the eastern half of the CONUS.
Low temperatures will drop into the low 40s along the coast and in the upper 30s across our GA/AL counties. For Sunday, the warming trend continues with high temperatures climbing up into the low to mid 70s under mostly clear skies.
High pressure extending from New England to the Gulf Coast will dominate the weather across central Illinois today. S/SW winds gusting 25-30mph on the back side of the high will bring considerably warmer air into the region. Readings will be coolest in the lower to middle 60s along the Indiana border. The current upper level pattern is characterized by a deep trough along the eastern seaboard, ridging over the central CONUS, and a digging trough over British Columbia.
A weak surface cold front is expected to travel south across Michigan tonight and stall across southern Michigan which in turn veer wind direction from southwest to northwest. After another cold morning, temperatures will rebound nicely today to around 60 as brisk southwesterly flow around high pressure to the south advects milder air into the area. For tonight, high pressure passing north of the Great Lakes will drive a shallow weak front south to about the southern border before stalling.
The current trend is for these areas of -RA to diminish during the afternoon with the reduction of elevated forcing along the H700 theta-e ridge with the exception over the far SSW zones, where this weak forcing may persist through a portion of the afternoon. Limited insolation and the lack of significant warm advection upon the return of light SSE winds should result in cooler temps, and thus have lowered max temps some 2-4 degrees across the board to account for the diminished insolation.
RH values will be near critical levels for fire wx this afternoon as temps continue to increase to the low-mid 60s with dewpoints in the low-mid 20s. Expect to see highs in the low 60s.
252 PM MDT Sat Apr 3 2021 The axis of the mid-level high pressure ridge over the region will shift east of the Continental Divide tonight as a low pressure system over the Pacific Northwest digs southward.
150 PM CDT Sat Apr 3 2021 Mid level heights will continue to rise this afternoon and evening as a broad mid level ridge moves in allowing for continued dry and warm conditions.
Current 3 PM temperatures are generally in the lower 60s.
Easter Sunday will be a nearly identical, temperature wise, to today except a few locations may see slightly cooler high temperatures.
Lows from the low to upper 30s can be expected. Some moderation in temperatures can be expected on Sunday with highs in the mid 60s to low 70s in the lower elevations with low to mid 50s in the higher elevations.
Beautiful Spring weather continues through the weekend with high pressure situated directly over the Deep South. Temperatures tonight, although warmer than the previous night, will be on the colder side once more. Calm winds and clear skies will favor the development of frost, especially in sheltered and valley areas, as most locations see overnight lows in the lower to mid 30s.
High pressure across the SE CONUS with breezy northeasterly to easterly winds across the region. As we move into Sunday, high pressure continues to move southward over the region, the pressure gradient will begin to relax and winds will gradually begin to subside.
Will show the highest rain chances across the northwest Hill Country. Most of the high res guidance though keeps any rainfall amounts on the light side (less than a quarter of an inch). The low clouds should inhibit too much radiational cooling, resulting in somewhat mild lows in the low to mid 50s.
The flat upper level ridge will begin to shift eastward through Sunday, with just a slight increase in westerly flow. Warm and dry weather will start the forecast period, but cooler and a little bit of moisture is on the horizon.
524 PM MDT Sat Apr 3 2021 The axis of the mid-level high pressure ridge over the region will shift east of the Continental Divide tonight as a low pressure system over the Pacific Northwest digs southward.
738 PM EDT Sat Apr 3 2021 High pressure centered over the southeast United States will remain in control across the area through Sunday.
High pressure just east of the region will allow winds to calm overnight and maintain a light southeasterly flow during the day Sunday. Temperatures held down a bit, ranging from the lower to upper 60s, with dewpoints in the mid 30s to near 40. While most of the rain is evaporating due to the lower dewpoints (drier air), a few reports of very light drizzle or light rain scattered about this afternoon.
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS CONTINUE AREA-WIDE WITH PATCHY TO AREAS OF Cool High Pressure center over GA and the Carolinas will continue to slowly sink southward and very dry airmass along with near perfect radiational cooling conditions later tonight, will continue to trend on the lower side of guidance with mid to upper 30s across inland SE GA and upper 30s/lower 40s across inland NE FL and light onshore will hold overnight lows in the 40s along the Atlc Coastal areas. Under sunny skies and light onshore winds as high pressure settles over the area expect temps to rebound into the lower to middle 70s inland Sunday afternoon, with the onshore flow keeping the Atlc Coast topping out in the 60s.
805 PM EDT Sat Apr 3 2021 High pressure will remain over the region through the first half of the upcoming week resulting in a warming trend.
RAH (Issued 248 PM CDT Sat Apr 3 2021) Tonight and Sunday: Winds are diminishing quickly this afternoon as a weak low pressure area moves into central WI. Northeasterly winds behind this system will accelerate down the lake quicker than inland areas as a weak back door cold front overnight. That onshore wind component will keep lakeshore areas cooler with highs only in the upper 50s. Inland areas will get a little warmer than they got today with highs in the lower 70s. Dewpoints have risen into the lower 30s today and I expect a similar situation for Sunday with no more moisture advection.
619 PM CDT Sat Apr 3 2021 Upper low will move continue to move through the region this evening with the potential for virga showers and strong downburst activity near KLBB and KPVW. A minor disturbance under the ridge continues to track eastward across New Mexico.
1036 PM EDT Sat Apr 3 2021 Currently - A strong high pressure system is centered over the southeastern United States resulting in fresh to strong northeast breezes across the Keys and surrounding waters. A strong high pressure system centered over the southeastern United States will shift slightly southeastward and weaken overnight.
High pressure returns Sunday with mild and dry weather.
1016 PM EDT Sat Apr 3 2021 High pressure ridging from New England through the Southeast to the central Gulf Coast will keep us dry tonight with light winds and clear skies. Ridge/valley split is already beginning to show up in eastern sections where Frost Advisory is in place. WAA on the back side of the high should help keep temps for tonight much closer to climo than in the last few mornings.
Warm and dry conditions continue across the area, as upper ridging remains in control overhead. Even with the light winds, temperatures should stay in the low 50s or upper 40s for lows. As lee troughing redevelops to the west tomorrow, the pressure gradient will strengthen again. Given continued ridging aloft and sunny skies, along with 850 mb temps 13-18C, temperatures should quickly warm. Highs in the low to mid 80s seem likely for most.
An area of weak low pressure over Michigan and Lake Huron will track across the region tonight and clearing will take place overnight. Ridging over the nations mid section will expand across the Upper Great Lakes Easter Sunday and Sunday night.
1043 PM EDT Sat Apr 3 2021 Fair and cold through Sunday morning as Canadian high pressure builds into the region.
Sunshine abounds over the entire Midwest today, as two high pressure areas noted by dry air are dominating the region. The slightly warmer temperatures Sunday are mainly due to increased afternoon mixing with the south winds.
505 PM EDT Sat Apr 3 2021 Dry weather and a warming trend is expected for the weekend under high pressure. Rain chances return with an early week warm front. Dry weather should prevail under high pressure, with sfc srly wind aiding in gradual temperature moderation toward, yet just shy of average high temperature values. Broadening high pressure should support yet another dry day on Sunday, with insolation lending to above average temperature values.
High pressure is now circulating to our east, and that means return flow across Middle Tennessee and warmer air on the way.
947 PM EDT Sat Apr 3 2021 Dry weather and a warming trend is expected for the weekend under high pressure. Rain chances return with an early week warm front. IR satellite shows some continued mid and upper level cloud cover associated with the passing trough through the area. Broadening high pressure should support yet another dry day on Sunday, with insolation lending to above average temperature values.
529 PM MDT Sat Apr 3 2021 A strong ridge still in place will bring mostly clear skies this evening into tonight with temperatures cooling to the 40s.
639 PM CDT Sat Apr 3 2021 A weak trough of low pressure was passing through the area this afternoon.
622 PM CDT Sat Apr 3 2021 Upper low will continue to move through the region this evening with the potential for virga showers and strong downburst activity near KLBB and KPVW. A minor disturbance under the ridge continues to track eastward across New Mexico.
745 PM EDT Sat Apr 3 2021 Fair and cold through Sunday morning as Canadian high pressure builds into the region.
Ridge of high pressure across the area will produce calm/light winds with clear sky. Dry northwest flow aloft and surface ridging will keep conditions quiet. Winds will generally be less than 10kts due to surface ridging. Chattanooga Airport, TN 38 71 44 74 48 / 0 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 37 68 44 72 48 / 0 0 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 36 69 42 73 47 / 0 0 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 32 66 40 70 45 / 0 0 0 0 0 NC.
615 PM CDT Sat Apr 3 2021 The theme for the remainder of the weekend will be the continued dry weather along with moderating temperatures with a surface anticyclone anchored over the southeastern CONUS. Low temperatures tonight are expected to be about 5-10 degrees warmer than those observed early this morning.
938 PM EDT Sat Apr 3 2021 High pressure centered over the southeast United States will remain in control across the area through Sunday.
This will likely keep overnight lows above the cooler model guidance, and this is already factored into the current forecast. Tomorrow will be a few degrees cooler than today, but still well-above normal.
Temperatures have responded accordingly, with much of the area in the mid-upper 40s, but a little warmer in the urban areas and to the west.
Winds will continue to come around to the northwest as the low tracks eastward overnight.
Ridge of high pressure across the area will produce calm/light winds with clear sky. JB Chattanooga Airport, TN 71 44 74 48 76 / 0 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 68 44 72 48 73 / 0 0 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 69 42 73 47 73 / 0 0 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 66 40 70 45 71 / 0 0 0 0 0 NC.
High pressure ridging from New England through the Southeast to the central Gulf Coast will keep us dry tonight with light winds and clear skies. Ridge/valley split is already beginning to show up in eastern sections where Frost Advisory is in place. WAA on the back side of the high should help keep temps for tonight much closer to climo than in the last few mornings.
Highs are most likely to top out in the 70s, though a cold front will be working through the area, and an earlier passage would lead to slightly cooler than currently advertised highs generally along/west of the James Valley. Min RH values in the 20 to 40% range combined with gusty north winds during the afternoon (particularly behind the cold front) should lead to elevated fire danger.
1050 PM CDT Sat Apr 3 2021 A weak trough of low pressure was passing through the area this afternoon. For Sunday night into Monday, we will be watching a warm front push through the area along with increasing low-level moisture transport. Will keep pops in the lower/chance category for now based on this. Shower and thunderstorm chances continue Monday night as an elongated area of low pressure pushes across the area with a continued feed of low/mid level moisture.
/issued 622 PM CDT Sat Apr 3 2021/ Upper low will continue to move through the region this evening with the potential for virga showers and strong downburst activity near KLBB and KPVW. A minor disturbance under the ridge continues to track eastward across New Mexico.
400 AM CDT Sun Apr 4 2021 The upper-level trough that brought virga to the southern South Plains last evening was moving into central Texas as of 2 AM. As the low levels continue to moisten, fog formation will become possible this morning, especially over the western South Plains. With passage of a weak upper ridge axis late in the day, flow aloft will diverge and could help generate isolated high-based thunderstorms late Monday afternoon into early evening if convergence along the dryline becomes strong enough.
Although dry weather is anticipated inland, isolated showers may occur over the lower Texas coastal waters on Monday, mainly in the form of streamer activity.
Nudged high temperatures and daytime winds up a bit over initialization given good mixing and much warmer NBM 50th percentile guidance.
254 AM MDT Sun Apr 4 2021 Water vapor places flat upper level ridge over the plains. With surface trof moving through western South Dakota winds will highly dependent on deep mixing. Cold front slides through the area Monday. South central South Dakota will see another day in the low 80s. with noticeably cooler conditions elsewhere.
High pressure will remain in place through the Sunday, resulting in dry conditions with near-record high temperatures.
319 AM EDT Sun Apr 4 2021 Dry weather and warmer weather is expected today under high pressure. A broad area of high pressure should maintain dry weather and mostly sunny skies today. Dry weather should continue tonight as the broad area of high pressure tracks east across the region. An upper low is progged to persist of the NE CONUS through mid week, as a weak ridge tracks across the Midwest.
310 AM EDT Sun Apr 4 2021 Another dry and mostly sunny day today with highs in the low to mid 70s and light winds.
Dry weather will persist and temperatures will continue to moderate, with highs in the low to mid 70s and lows in the low to mid 40s.
449 AM EDT Sun Apr 4 2021 High pressure dominates, with dry weather and moderating temperatures into the new week. High pressure continues to remain in control across the area, with dry conditions. Frost advisory will continue as coded, and as expected, potential for frost appears to mainly be confined to sheltered valleys with a ridge/valley temperature split this evening. The front parallels the mid and upper level flow, with ridging approaching from the west.
Warm and dry conditions continue across the area, as upper ridging remains in control overhead. Even with the light winds, temperatures should stay in the low 50s or upper 40s for lows. As lee troughing redevelops to the west tomorrow, the pressure gradient will strengthen again. Given continued ridging aloft and sunny skies, along with 850 mb temps 13-18C, temperatures should quickly warm. Highs in the low to mid 80s seem likely for most. Can't rule out an isolated shower early Monday morning across far northern Kansas as a weak vorticity maximum moves over top the ridge, but the better chances will stay across Nebraska.
However, much like yesterday morning, forecast soundings indicate the low-levels to be fairly dry, evaporating most rain before it reaches the surface. By Sunday night, partly cloudy skies will keep overnight lows fairly mild with lows near 60 inland, in the mid-50s for our northern counties, and warmer in the mid-60s along the coast. By Monday, breaks in sky cover as well as warm onshore flow will allow temperatures to climb to the upper 70s inland and the low 70s along the coast.
330 AM EDT Sun Apr 4 2021 Synopsis/Discussion/Marine -Warm and dry today -Showers and storms late tonight and Monday -Upper low brings late week rain --Warm and dry today-- Pleasant weather expected today as surface ridging settles in behind a weak west-east oriented sfc frontal boundary which stalls near the MI/IN border. Mainly just some high cloudiness riding along the flat upper ridge today so a mostly sunny fcst should work for most areas, but clouds may thicken up north of I-96 this afternoon. Additional clusters of elevated showers and storms may impact the area on Monday with warm front remaining situated over the area. --Upper low brings late week rain-- After Monday, the coverage/potential for showers and tstms should decrease somewhat as an upper ridge begins to build/amplify ahead of the deepening trough/upper low coming across the Rockies.
313 AM CDT Sun Apr 4 2021 Kansas will remain under the influence of the broader low amplitude ridge migrating eastward today over the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest.
309 AM EDT Sun Apr 4 2021 High pressure is expected to bring seasonable weather over the next couple of days with the next chance of precipitation coming mid week. Tonight, the atmosphere will have a tough time decoupling so winds will help keep the lower levels mixed.
Will keep slightly cooler temperatures in these areas for today, but everyone is still expected to warm into the 70s with near 80 degrees along the Kansas border.
Will show the highest rain chances across the northwest Hill Country. Most of the high res guidance though keeps any rainfall amounts on the light side (less than a quarter of an inch).
Model soundings do show dew points rising through the column throughout the short term but weather will continue to be dry with strong subsidence within the low levels.
Temperatures have responded accordingly, with much of the area in the mid-upper 40s, but a little warmer in the urban areas and to the west. Overnight lows will also not be near as cold Sunday night into Monday morning with values in the low to mid 40s. Highs on Monday will climb into the low to mid 70s under sunny skies.
Records for Valentine and Broken Bow currently sit in the low 80s with forecasted highs expected in the mid to upper 80s. Over the last several forecast runs, temperatures have trended warmer so confidence is high that records will be broken at all four sites.
with a warm front up across midwest and a cold front back down into west TX. The main cold front is expected to move through Thu night, and another weak SFC/LL trough, as well as the upper trough from the Great Lakes upper will remain late week/into the weekend.
High temperatures will hop into the low to mid 80s this afternoon under increasing southwesterly flow.
Afternoon high temps will be in the low to mid 70s.
340 AM CDT Sun Apr 4 2021 Minor ridging continues across the Plains this morning as a mid level trough moves across the Pacific.
Ahead of the low, winds were still from the southeast, while behind the low winds were turning to the northwest. By afternoon, this low should shift into eastern Minnesota. The next cold front will begin crossing western and central North Dakota tonight. This FA will stay in the warm sector ahead of the low, so southeast winds will remain steady tonight with fairly mild lows. Models show the aforementioned cold front moving into areas along or east of the Red River Valley by mid to late afternoon.