Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
332 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2015 LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES DOMINATING THROUGH THURSDAY WITH DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. FLOW MODIFYING BY THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH WEAKENS BUT LEAVES WEAK LOW PRESSURE TO THE WEST. WHILE A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE E US RELAXS AND A WEAK CLOSED LOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES/GOM. THE COMBINATION OF SW FLOW ALOFT FROM CLOSED LOW AND ESE FLOW AT THE SFC BECKONS FOR THE RETURN OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE TO THE CWA.
343 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015 UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE ROCKIES. WITH A TROUGH ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. CAUSING THE RIDGE TO FLATTEN.
149 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2015 HIGH PRESSURE NUDGES INTO THE REGION TODAY. PUSHING THE COLD FRONT OFFSHORE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE AREA FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. HAVE CONTINUED ISO TO SCT SHRA WORDING ACROSS THE FAR SE CWA FOR THIS MORNING, AS WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PUSHES ALONG THE FRONT EARLY TODAY. COOL HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS BUILDS EAST, ALLOWING FOR HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S UNDER A PARTLY SUNNY SKY.
INFLUENCE OF THE 500 MB RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN US WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY EASTWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD WHILE THE 500 MB TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN US AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WILL SLIDE NE. THE RIDGE WILL PROVIDE SUBSIDENCE THROUGH THE PERIOD AND A DRIER AIRMASS WILL PUSH IN FROM THE NORTH NORTHEAST. WITH THE LOWER DEWPOINTS. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN WE HAVE SEEN RECENTLY WITH LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS THE INLAND AREAS.
353 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015 COURTESY OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. A NORTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE HIGH CONTINUED A TREND OF DRY AND COOLER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS. AS THE NORTHERN STREAM FLOWED NORTH OF THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. THIS FLOW GOING INTO TROUGHING ALONG THE EAST COAST WAS KEEPING CLOUDS. TOMORROW SHOULD BE A REPEAT PERFORMANCE WITH HIGHS AGAIN IN THE LOW/MID 80S.
A DEEP UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH BISECTS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE HAS MAINTAINED REAL ESTATE. SKIES RANGE FROM SUNNY IN THE UPPER KEYS TO CLOUDY IN THE LOWER KEYS.
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY GRAPHICALLY DEPICTS THE LARGE POOL OF DRY AIR DESCENDING OVER SETX AROUND THE EAST SIDE OF A STRONG RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES. /ISSUED / 1023 MB HIGH OVER MISSOURI RIDGING DOWN THROUGH SETX WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT OVER THE FAR SW COASTAL WATERS AND CRP CWA. WITH GALVESTON EVEN GETTING INTO THE LOWER 90S. /ISSUED / OVER THE PAST DAY THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS HAS SHIFTED A TOUCH EAST WITH NORTHERN AMPLIFICATION.
331 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015 ZCZC STLWRKJJW 261928 TTAA00 KSTL DDHHMM Water vapor imagery depicts a broad mid-level ridge to the west which is providing northwest flow aloft over the CWA.
916 PM MST FRI JAN 15 2016 A RELATIVELY WEAK COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE MOVING ESE THIS EVENING. WITH THE TROUGH CLEARING THE AREA TO THE EAST BY 03Z. WITH FRESH SNOW IN THE LOWER VALLEYS. FOG IS A POSSIBILITY OVERNIGHT IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY.
TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER TODAY THAN ON FRIDAY.
FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAY SWITCHING WINDS TO A MORE NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION ALLOWING TODAYS HIGHS AND TONIGHT'S LOWS TO BE COOLER COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. LUCKILY FORECAST SOUNDINGS HAVE A RELATIVELY WEAK WARM NOSE LEADING TO MOSTLY RAIN OR SNOW AND DOESN'T APPEAR TO BE AS FAVORABLE FOR SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN.
Highs should reach into the lower 40s. Lows tomorrow will be cooler and in the teens to lower 20s.
1147 PM EST FRI JAN 15 2016 LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL PULL A COLD FRONT EAST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. A TROUGH WILL LINGER OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AT THE SURFACE THIS WEEKEND WHILE A RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY.
WITH TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING THUS FAR. HOWEVER MOTORISTS ARE STILL URGED TO USE CAUTION AS BRIDGES AND OVERPASS COULD BECOME SLICK DURING THE MORNING HOURS. THE PRECIP WILL BE TRANSITIONING BACK TO LIQUID AS TEMPS RETURN TO ABOVE FREEZING. TEMPS WILL BE COOLER TODAY /40S/ THANKS TO THE CLOUD COVER AND COLD FRONT USHERING IN A COOLER AIRMASS. WEAK SFC LEE TROUGHING WILL RETURN SFC WINDS TO A SRLY FLOW. THE NEXT TWO SHORT WAVE TROUGHS LOOK EVEN MORE BENIGN THAN BEFORE WITH ONLY WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGES TO ACCOMPANY THEM.
/ISSUED 835 PM EST FRI JAN 15 2016/ THE LOWER LEVEL AIRMASS IS SATURATED AND REPORTS OF DRIZZLE ARE SHOWING UP SO HAVE INCLUDED OCCASIONAL DRIZZLE TO THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT FOR MAINLY N GA. /ISSUED 605 PM EST FRI JAN 15 2016/ CURRENT RADAR LOOP SHOWS PRECIP EXITING THE AREA AS LOW PRESSURE CENTER MOVES UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD. A SECOND WEAKER LOW PRESSURE CENTER BEGINS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE TX GULF COAST AND THIS BECOMES OUR NEXT PRECIP MAKER. AS THIS LOW CENTER MOVES DUE EAST IT BEGINS TO SPREAD MOISTURE ACROSS LA/AL SAT EVENING AND INTO GA SAT NIGHT.
THIS PRECIP IS JUST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. SURGE OF COLD AIR EXPECTED TO DROP TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 20S NORTHERN PLATEAU AND INTO THE LOWER 30S MOST OTHER LOCATIONS. COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. AS A MID LEVEL UPPER TROUGH IS STILL LOCATED UPSTREAM.
1126 PM CST FRI JAN 15 2016 A STRONG CLOSED LOW SPINNING ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA WILL SLOWLY SPIN SOUTHWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT NEAR NORMAL IN THE LOWER 40S. THIS IS DUE TO THE BUILDING OF YET ANOTHER WESTERN UNITED STATES RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. A FEW READINGS INTO THE LOW 60S ARE POSSIBLE BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
AND A STRONG UPPER LOW TO THE NORTH OF WINNIPEG WITH BROAD TROUGH INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. IN BETWEEN A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS INTO WESTERN CANADA. BROAD TROUGH THROUGH THE NORTHERN INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS CENTERED TO THE NORTH OF WINNIPEG.
OTHERWISE GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE NEW WEEK WITH WARMER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES.
THE LOW CLOUDS WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA WITH OCCASIONAL LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD.
336 AM CST SAT JAN 16 2016 UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WAS MOVING EAST ACROSS THE PANHANDLES THIS MORNING. BUT IT HAS NOW MOISTENED UP THE LOW LEVELS. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND SOME INTO THE 40S FOR HIGHS TODAY AS THE AFFECTS OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES AWAY.
211 AM CST SAT JAN 16 2016 COLD FRONT APPEARS TO HAVE FINALLY CLEARED MIDDLE TENNESSEE, WITH DRIER, COOLER AIR FILTERING INTO THE MID STATE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. LOOK FOR LOW CLOUDS TO REMAIN LOCKED IN THROUGHOUT THE DAY, WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM RACING ALONG THE GULF COAST OVERNIGHT THAT MAY PRODUCE LIGHT SNOW ALONG THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.
SATELLITE AND OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THE LOW CLOUDS FROM THIS MORNING ARE BREAKING UP WITH MORE SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE AREA AND WINDS HAVE BEEN SLOWLY DECREASING A LITTLE THIS AFTERNOON. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SURGE SOUTH AS AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRANSLATES SOUTHEAST FROM MANITOBA TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION.
103 AM EST SAT JAN 16 2016 A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA AND TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S FOR LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.
NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW FLURRIES AND PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO DRY CONDITIONS BY THIS AFTERNOON.
Winds will increase slightly within the next couple of hours ahead of a cold front that will come into the area around 09 to 12z. Meanwhile, upstream a sharpening mid level trof INVOF 4 Corners Region will move thru the CWFA between 06Z/17 and 12Z/17. Despite nw downslope winds Sat cold advection will offset and it be noticeably cooler, probably 10-15 degrees cooler. Dry air in wake of the front will make for a cold Sun AM, but in the afternoon temps will rebound just ahead of another cold front. The front will make for cooler temps Mon PM, but still near normal. Yet another shrtwv trof and assocd front may near/move into the nrn CWFA late Tue PM.
359 AM CST SAT JAN 16 2016 WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED AN UPPER LOW NEAR THE MAN/ONTARIO BORDER. UPPER LOW FORECAST TO MOVE OVER LS BY SUN MORNING. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST WILL GET KNOCKED DOWN WITH SHORT WAVES MOVING INTO THE WEST COAST. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH A SHORT WAVE UPSTREAM. A POTENTIAL PROBLEM OS WITH WATER VAPOR LOOP/FOG LOOP INDICATING AN EASTERN FLOW OVER CENTRAL CANADA OR NORTH OF MAN/ONTARIO UPPER LOW. EXPECT A MODERATING TREND WITH MUCH WARMER AIR THAN WE HAVE SEEN IN RECENT DAYS. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE COLDEST AIR MOVING WELL EAST OF THE AREA AND RIDGING BUILDING TO OUR WEST LATE IN THE PERIOD.
Temperatures responded this morning by falling into the low to mid 20s.
334 AM EST SAT JAN 16 2016 LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFYING OFF THE DELAWARE COAST WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TODAY PASSING SOUTHEAST OF NEW ENGLAND TODAY AND THEN WELL OUT TO SEA BY THIS EVENING. THE BEST CHANCES FOR SEEING ALL SNOW WILL BE AWAY FROM THE COAST AND INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
1104 PM CST FRI JAN 15 2016 Cooler conditions are occurring across the area this afternoon, behind a cold front that passed through the region last night.
A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS WILL LEAD TO INCREASING COLDER AIR MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE FIRST COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING. A RATHER SIGNIFICANT LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL PUSH SOUTH OUT OF CANADA INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY SAT NIGHT. THIS LOW WILL HELP DISLODGE SOME ARCTIC AIR SOUTH INTO THE PLAINS FOR LATE SAT INTO EARLY SUN AS THIS LOW PRESSURE AREA DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL LEAD TO A SLIGHT WARMUP BACK TOWARDS NORMAL FOR MON AS A WEAK RIDGE MOVES OVER THE AREA IN THE NW FLOW. NOT ENTIRELY SURE ON WHETHER THE PRECIP WILL BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN OR SNOW GIVEN TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S.
246 AM CST SAT JAN 16 2016 A couple of upper level troughs will pass through the forecast area through this weekend. The first upper level trough will pass through west Texas this morning. Windy conditions will develop this morning across the Davis Mountains and the lower Trans Pecos Region of west Texas behind this system due to a decent surface pressure gradient and subsidence with mixing down of 700 millibar winds of 35 to 50 mph. Will continue the High Wind Warning for the Davis Mountains above 6000 feet until Noon cst and issue a Wind Advisory for Pecos and Terrell Counties of southwest Texas from mid morning to late this afternoon.
WHILE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WEST COAST STARTS TO BUILD INTO THE GREAT BASIN. WITH THE LOWERING OF THE STABLE LAYER OVERNIGHT DUE TO CONTINUED WARMING FROM ALOFT.
1206 AM EST SAT JAN 16 2016 AVIATION ONE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CROSSING LAKE MICHIGAN THIS EVENING WILL TRACK THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN TONIGHT.
434 AM EST SAT JAN 16 2016 NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND A COLD FRONT WILL BRING COLDER AIR AND A CHANCE OF FLURRIES TODAY.
SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS EVENING PLACES A COLD FRONT FROM MIDDLE TENNESSEE BACK THROUGH NORTHEAST AND CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE MID SOUTH RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S NEAR THE MO/KY BORDER AND MIDDLE 40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI. /ISSUED 534 PM CST FRI JAN 15 2016/ A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ROUGHLY ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. READINGS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S.
332 AM CST SAT JAN 16 2016 BASE OF UPPER TROF NOW APPROACHING THE BIG BEND AREA WILL MAKE ITS WAY ESE AND ACROSS SE TX AND THE UPPER TX COASTAL WATERS TODAY.
A WEAK WARM FRONT JUST OFFSHORE WILL GENERATE SOME LIGHT RAIN ALONG THE COAST INTO THE NIGHT. VARIABLE CLOUDINESS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND BUT IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY AND TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE UNDER A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE.
AM EXPECTING A RATHER STEADY DECREASE IN CLOUDINESS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS MOVE TOWARD THE CO/KS BORDER FROM THE WEST AHEAD OF UPPER RIDGE AXIS.
333 AM CST SAT JAN 16 2016 (Today and Tonight) An upper level short wave trough extended from the Texas Panhandle into the Big Bend Region. At the surface, a cold front will quickly dive south across the area this morning and early this afternoon.
1144 PM CST FRI JAN 15 2016 FOR 06Z TAFS /ISSUED 955 PM CST FRI JAN 15 2016/ LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT THE COLD FRONT IS STARTING TO MOVE THROUGH NW ALABAMA AS OF 930PM. STUMPF THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES ITS SLOW SEWD PROGRESSION THIS EVENING AND IS ABOUT TO PUSH THROUGH THE KHSV TERMINAL.
A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTH THROUGH CENTRAL NC THIS MORNING. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN OFFSHORE ON FRIDAY. PASSAGE OF A WEAK MID LEVEL WAVE INTO THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH NOW EXITING OFF THE EAST COAST IS BRINGING JUST A FEW CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. LATEST HIGH-RES GUIDANCE INDICATES LOWS FROM THE MID 20S IN OUTLYING AREAS OF THE NW TO THE LOWER 30S IN THE SOUTHEAST. BUT WITH THE LOW-LEVEL THERMAL THROUGH CENTERED OVER THE AREA. WARMER AND DRY THIS WEEKEND.
1151 PM CST WED FEB 17 2016 Main concern over the next few days will be wildfire danger as temperatures warm to near record values in the lower to mid 70s, and a very strong low-level jet positions over the region. A weak, quick moving cold front will swing through the region late Thursday night into Friday morning, shifting winds to the west northwest and allowing drier air to surge into the region.
435 AM EST THU FEB 18 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TODAY WITH DRY WEATHER AND CLEAR SKIES LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN CANADA WILL GIVE THE AREA LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.
/ISSUED 312 PM CST WED FEB 17 2016/ AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO MOVE OVERHEAD AND WILL SHIFT NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ALOFT TO A MORE WESTERLY DIRECTION. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY SHOULD BE MUCH WARMER THAN USUAL. SURFACE RIDGING WILL MOVE EAST INTO OKLAHOMA AND LATER IN THE DAY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY UNIFORM FROM THE SOUTHEAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY BUT STILL WELL ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS.
UPDATE Updated aviation section for 00z taf issuance High pressure over the middle Mississippi Valley has brought clearing as far east as the kpof area this afternoon. 19z surface dew points are at or above the low temp forecast. The only other forecast concern is the potential for strong winds Friday with the low-level jet.
153 AM EST THU FEB 18 2016 A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST EARLY THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR TODAY. BUT COOLER TEMPERATURES AVERAGING SOME 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
410 AM EST THU FEB 18 2016 COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TODAY. COOL HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE REGION TODAY WITH CLOUDS DECREASING OVER THE SOUTH. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN TONIGHT. TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING SHOULD REMAIN DRY AS A WARM FRONT PASSES WELL TO OUR NORTH.
309 AM CST THU FEB 18 2016 SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL TODAY AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT. IT WILL BE A BREEZY DAY WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER 50S FAR NORTH WHERE THE DEEPEST SNOW PACK REMAINS. TO THE LOWER 70S IN THE FAR SOUTH ALONG THE KS/NE BORDER. DEWPOINTS ARE STILL FORECAST TO RISE INTO THE LOWER 40S THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER OVER THURSDAY OVER THE SNOW PACK.
AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY EXITS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN. WITH THE POTENTIAL TO REACH FREEZING MARK BEFORE WARM ADVECTION MID/HIGH CLOUDS THICKEN UP. WITH STILL SOME DISCREPANCIES ON HOW ACTIVE THE WARM FRONT WILL BE TRACKING THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN. AND BASED ON THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW LEVEL JET (70 KNOTS) AND SUPPORT FROM HIRES-ARW.
Low temps tonight will dip a few degrees cooler in areas that see clearing, especially with the light and variable winds associated with high surface pressure. Normals for the latter half of February fall into the lower 40s.
AND THE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD REMAIN OVER TRI INTO THE EARLY MORNING. WEAK RIDGING ON THURSDAY FOR IMPROVING CONDITIONS WITH CONTINUED CLEARLY SKIES.
1254 AM EST THU FEB 18 2016 HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION. LONG WAVE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL US WILL BUILD EAST THURSDAY AND SHIFT OFF THE COAST ON FRIDAY. LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST AND SHIFT TOWARD THE COAST BY FRIDAY WITH NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS ON THURSDAY GRADUALLY VEERING TO SOUTHEASTERLY BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES BOTH DAYS WITH HIGHS ON THURSDAY IN THE MID 50S TO NEAR 60 AND SLIGHTLY WARMER HIGHS ON FRIDAY IN THE UPPER 50S TO MIDDLE 60S. LOWS ON FRIDAY MORNING WILL DROP DOWN INTO THE LOWER 30S.
356 AM CST THU FEB 18 2016 SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS IN RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS. WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE LOWER 80S ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES. LOWS FRIDAY MORNING WILL BE CONSIDERABLY WARMER THAN THIS MORNING RANGING FROM THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES.
1140 PM CST WED FEB 17 2016 Main concern over the next few days will be wildfire danger as temperatures warm to near record values in the lower to mid 70s, and a very strong low-level jet positions over the region. A weak, quick moving cold front will swing through the region late Thursday night into Friday morning, shifting winds to the west northwest and allowing drier air to surge into the region.
EXPECT COOLER TEMPERATURES TODAY ALTHOUGH DAYTIME HIGHS WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL.
1211 AM EST THU FEB 18 2016 DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. ALTHOUGH MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF A WARM FRONT. THIS WARM FRONT WILL LIFT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY BRINGING MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES AND WINDY CONDITIONS. ANY PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FEATURE SHOULD FOCUS NORTH AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES.
1226 AM EST THU FEB 18 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
UPPER RIDGING WILL SHIFT OVER THE PLAINS TONIGHT AND H85 TEMPS WILL INCREASE.
942 PM PST WED FEB 17 2016 A cold front will move through Washington and north Idaho late tonight into Thursday morning. Thursday will be showery, breezy, and a bit cooler than the last few days. High pressure this weekend will likely bring a return to mild weather and less wind. A well defined cold front on satellite over western Washington and western Oregon will move northeast into the Idaho Panhandle by Thursday morning. Snow levels are still on track to come down to around 3500 feet behind the cold front Thursday morning, with light snow accumulations possible for the mountains of the Idaho Panhandle and Camas Prairie. JW 06Z TAFS: Showers will continue into early Thursday along and ahead of a cold front.
THE RIDGE WILL RETREAT OUT OF THE AREA AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE MIDDAY PERIOD ON THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES WITH A FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW OUT WEST AND THE HIGH TO THE EAST.
TEMPS ARE CURRENTLY A DEG OR TWO COOLER THAN FORECAST SO WITH THE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. EXPECTING TEMPS TO DROP TO AROUND OR BELOW FREEZING AND NEAR THEIR DEW POINTS. HAVE ADDED PATCHY FOG TO THE FORECAST AND PATCHY FREEZING FOG TO AREAS THAT MAY DROP BELOW FREEZING. TEMPS ARE CURRENTLY A DEG OR TWO COOLER THAN FORECAST SO WITH THE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. EXPECTING TEMPS TO DROP TO AROUND OR BELOW FREEZING AND NEAR THEIR DEW POINTS. HAVE ADDED PATCHY FOG TO THE FORECAST AND PATCHY FREEZING FOG TO AREAS THAT MAY DROP BELOW FREEZING.
339 AM EST THU FEB 18 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE AREA TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY AND THEN MOVE OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT.
222 AM EST THU FEB 18 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTH CENTRAL SNAKE HIGHLANDS WILL BE TOUGHER TO REACH IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. WHEN THE LOW CENTER WAS IN CALIFORNIA/OREGON IT DEVELOPED LIGHTNING ON WED EVENING. BY TONIGHT THE LOW HAS MOVED ON.
942 PM MST WED FEB 17 2016 UPPER LEVEL WINDS HAVE BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS TO THE EAST. AND START LOWERING AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE BEST ENERGY FROM THE MAIN TROUGH WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH AS IT TRACKS EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER STATES. BUT THE JET SWINGS AROUND THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH AND RIGHT OVER OUR FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY. ALSO SNOW LEVELS WILL BE ON THE HIGH SIDE. AND WITH THE COMPRESSIONAL WARMING LOOK FOR AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES POSSIBLY WARMER THAN TODAY'S. SNOW WILL BE LIMITED TO THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS NEAR THE DIVIDE.
220 AM CST THU FEB 18 2016 Very mild conditions are ongoing across the region early this morning with temperatures still in the low 40s to low 50s which is much closer to normal highs than lows for this time of year. Upper level ridge continues to nudge eastward towards the region and starting to see pressure gradient tighten across the Plains just to our west. RH values have not recovered much yet tonight across the western CWA and we are expecting humidity to drop into the lower to middle 30 percent range during the afternoon. Plenty of sunshine is expected today and with the strong low level warm advection and upper ridge moving into the area, will likely see afternoon highs from the mid 60s east to mid 70s west.
220 AM EST THU FEB 18 2016 DRY AND MILD HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION INTO THE WEEKEND.
345 AM EST THU FEB 18 2016 DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. ALTHOUGH MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF A WARM FRONT. THIS WARM FRONT WILL LIFT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY BRINGING MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES AND WINDY CONDITIONS. ANY PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FEATURE SHOULD FOCUS NORTH AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES.
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SHOWERS BREAK OUT AHEAD OF THE 850MB TROUGH.
WARM FRONT WILL REMAIN PARKED SOUTH OF IOWA TONIGHT WITH SOUTHEAST SURFACE FLOW PERSISTING OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS ALSO REMAIN PROBLEMATIC WITH THE LOW/MID CLOUDS OF EARLIER TODAY GRADUALLY DIMINISHING. BY THURSDAY MORNING RIDGE WILL HAVE SET IN ACROSS THE STATE AND WAA WILL BE WELL UNDERWAY. CURRENT FORECAST ALREADY APPROACHES UPPER 50S AND EVEN 60 IN THE HIGHWAY 30 AREA FRIDAY. ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW. WHERE STRONGEST SURFACE WINDS WILL BE IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE LOW.
WILL KEEP FREEZING FOG IN FORECAST FOR NORTH HALF OF THE MID STATE. THINK BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES ARE MOST LIKELY TO HAVE FREEZING FOG IN THE OVERNIGHT. FREEZING FOG WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AS SKIES ARE CLEAR WITH LIGHT WINDS.
337 AM CST THU FEB 18 2016 A strengthening storm over the Pacific Northwest will move further onshore today, which will continue to push a mid-level ridge over the Central Plains. The main concern for today and Friday is fire weather danger as a very strong low-level jet develops underneath the ridge from central Texas spreading northeast into the forecast area this morning. A cold front will sweep through the area beginning Friday morning.
1253 AM EST THU FEB 18 2016 COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TODAY. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL END IN THE RIDGES LATE TONIGHT. COOL HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE REGION TODAY WITH CLOUDS DECREASING. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN TONIGHT. TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING SHOULD REMAIN DRY AS A WARM FRONT PASSES WELL TO OUR NORTH.
SREF AND HRRR OUTPUT SUGGESTS A BUILD DOWN OF THE LOWER CIGS TO PATCHY AND AREAS OF FOG THAT WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO 2-4 SM. INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE LOW-LEVELS WILL RESULT IN MOIST AIR ADVECTION ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS TONIGHT.
DRY HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. DRY HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL MAINTAIN CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WIND. /ISSUED 345 PM CST WED FEB 17 2016/ HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA IS BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS. OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS THIS HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND SWING SOUTH THEN SOUTHWEST TO SETTLE OVER NORTH FLORIDA.