Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
High pressure entrenched over the southwestern United States will continue to influence our local weather conditions with mostly clear skies as well as moderating temperatures. A low pressure system will pass to our north tonight into Saturday bringing an increase in mid and high clouds, but no precipitation. The western edge of a broad ridge of high pressure is responsible for plenty of sunshine with daytime temperatures ever so slightly above climatological normals this afternoon across south-central/ southwest Arizona and southeast California.
/Issued 216 PM EST Fri Jan 7 2022/ High pressure is currently centered across the southern Ohio Valley. Yesterday's cold front has made it all the way to the central Florida Peninsula. The high center will move east overnight and into Saturday. The High center will move offshore the DELMARVA Saturday night. Will have to monitor for the potential for some patchy freezing drizzle in the far NE portion of the CWA late Saturday night. If that can occur, there is some small potential for patchy freezing drizzle. If dewpoints and/or temps trend higher, the potential for freezing drizzle will decrease.
Models have the zonal flow aloft over the forecast area now becoming southwesterly overnight due to an approaching upper trough. There is a surface cold front associated with the upper trough. This incoming trough's moisture will get into the mountains later tonight. Will keep the high pops going in the mountains on Saturday. Will go with 10-30%s on the western plains and Palmer Ridge by late in the day. For temperatures, Saturday's highs should be 4-9 C cooler than today's highs out on the plains. For Saturday evening, the weak upper level trough will move off to the southeast, taking the snow with it. Mountain areas will probably see snow end sooner with sharp drying behind the trough, but even on the Palmer Divide it should be all but over by midnight.
430 PM MST Fri Jan 7 2022 Water vapor shows upper ridge axis over the Northern Plains with trof across the Pac NW. At the surface, arctic air continues to erode from the west with lee trof advancing through eastern WY. Surface trof will continue to work through the region this afternoon and tonight, with cold front sweeping through Saturday morning as upper trof moves through the Northern Rockies.
653 PM EST Fri Jan 7 2022 Scattered snow showers favoring northwest Pennsylvania and the higher elevations will taper off through this evening with building high pressure.
Skies will continue to clear during the overnight hours and low temps will bottom out in the low to upper teens for most areas. Clear skies and warming temps are expected on Saturday with high pressure in place to our southeast. Highs will be near normal with temps in the low to upper 40s. Breezy winds across the higher elevations can be expected late in the day with wind gusts up to 20 mph.
544 PM CST Fri Jan 7 2022 (Tonight into early Saturday morning) Main issue for the overnight period will be the development of areas of light drizzle/freezing drizzle. Surface temperatures will fall off quickly and then rise later tonight as surface winds increase, and there should be a favorable window late tonight into early Saturday morning for some areas of light freezing drizzle primarily for northwest AR and adjacent areas of eastern OK. Given the high uncertainty with overnight temperature trends and beginning of any drizzle/freezing drizzle, will hold off on an advisory at this time. That said, a glaze of ice is a possibility, especially for bridges and overpasses. (Saturday through Friday) Surface temperatures are expected to be above freezing by mid-late morning as south winds become gusty ahead of an approaching cold front.
/issued 250 PM CST Fri Jan 7 2022/ Quiet weather today under zonal flow aloft, will gradually bend southwest tonight and tomorrow as a broad upper trough deepens and expands across the western CONUS. Warm air advection and downsloping tomorrow will lift high temperatures into the low 70s for most locations across our area.
1136 PM EST Fri Jan 7 2022 Building high pressure will keep the weather quiet tomorrow and slightly warmer under SW flow.
Discussion: In the upper levels, a ridge will be over the Eastern U. today with high pressure centered over the Mid-Atlantic. With mostly sunny skies and warm air advection afternoon highs will be much warmer in the 40s. Tonight, a cold front will move through the Midwest with a parent low near Hudson Bay.
1024 PM MST Fri Jan 7 2022 Water vapor shows upper ridge axis over the Northern Plains with trof across the Pac NW. At the surface, arctic air continues to erode from the west with lee trof advancing through eastern WY. Surface trof will continue to work through the region this afternoon and tonight, with cold front sweeping through Saturday morning as upper trof moves through the Northern Rockies.
1025 PM MST Fri Jan 7 2022 Began taking down some of the lower elevation wind warnings. Winds start to relax Saturday afternoon as flow aloft weakens with the passage of a cold front. This cold front will be predominately dry for the lower elevations. Accumulation looks to be between 2 and 6 inches with the higher peaks seeing up to 10 inches.
855 PM MST Fri Jan 7 2022 Gusty southwest winds today will give way to a cold front sliding southeast across north-central Montana this evening into the overnight, bringing a brief return to chilly conditions.
Some of the colder valley locations of northwest Arkansas could still be below freezing at the onset of the drizzle which could result in a light glaze of icing on mostly elevated surfaces. By mid-morning, all of eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas is forecast to be above freezing, which will put an end to the potential for freezing drizzle. The potential for showers and even a few thunderstorms will increase this afternoon as moisture continues to stream into the region in advance of the next cold front set to move through the area tonight.
Dewpoints are a bit lower than models suggested this evening, and with calm winds, clear skies, and still plenty of snow cover, temps may continue to fall into the low to mid teens before dewpoints recover tonight. Look for surface winds to increase considerably after 12Z, with LLWS developing by Saturday evening ahead of the next cold front.
Low level winds will shift a little more to the southwest during the day, with the low clouds mixing out from west to east across the area during the day. Latest NAM and HRRR clear most of the low clouds out of the Concho Valley and Big Country by around noon, with the clearing line reaching into the Hill Country and Heartland during the afternoon. Not entirely confident that the low clouds will clear out of the Brownwood, Brady, Mason, Junction areas with enough time to allow a substantial warming, so those areas should be a little cooler than locations farther west. Next surface cold front will make progress towards the area overnight, likely reaching pretty close to I-20 by sunrise. Gusty north winds and cooler temperatures behind the front, with lows in the 30s.
Parts of NW AR and far NE OK still may be at or a tad below freezing after midnight, at which time there remains some potential for patchy drizzle/ freezing drizzle. The main change to the forecast incorporating current trends will be a reduction in area covered in the forecast by freezing drizzle and, at this time, impacts are expected to be minimal. Majority of locations should be at or above freezing by sunrise Sat morning, with possible exception of some of NW AR where dew point temps will remain considerably lower. (Saturday through Friday) Surface temperatures are expected to be above freezing by mid-late morning as south winds become gusty ahead of an approaching cold front.
A cold front will push southward through the region at a brisk pace this morning and bring gusty conditions with winds of 30 to 40 mph mainly north of Highway 2 and east of Route 83. High pressure building in behind the front tonight will fall short of ideal radiational cooling but still expect lows generally in the single digits with drainage flows in some valleys, especially southwest Nebraska where snow remains on the ground, almost turning the corner into negative numbers.
Moisture will be rather shallow (limited to the lowest 5-7km) with little to no ice nucleation, so drizzle/freezing drizzle should be our primary p-type.
Cold front brought rain and snow to western Idaho this morning, and after brief clearing, the upper trough brought more clouds and scattered rain and snow showers along with gusty winds in the afternoon and evening. The upper trough over us now will exit east Saturday. A Pacific upper ridge will then build inland. The ridge will bring dry weather the next several days along with warming aloft that will cause an inversion in the colder valleys below, with areas of valley fog and low clouds.
1056 PM EST Fri Jan 7 2022 A northwest breeze ushers in high pressure to start the weekend with low pressure departing through the Canadian Maritimes.
This waa/moisture advection will aid in rising temps early this morning into the daylight hours on Saturday, keeping surface temps above freezing. Clouds will be slow to erode from west to east, which will keep temps cooler than they might realize across portions of central into eastern Oklahoma. A strong cold front will move south through the area tonight with gusty north winds.
High pressure moving through the Ohio Valley is bringing mostly clear skies and another night of cold temperatures. Diegan Chattanooga Airport, TN 23 49 40 54 34 / 0 0 30 100 50 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 19 46 35 52 29 / 0 0 30 100 60 Oak Ridge, TN 18 46 36 50 27 / 0 0 30 100 60 Tri Cities Airport, TN 13 46 32 50 25 / 0 0 20 100 80.
254 AM CST Sat Jan 8 2022 Key Points: - Slight chance of patchy freezing drizzle this morning.
High pressure moving through the Ohio Valley is bringing mostly clear skies and another night of cold temperatures. McD Chattanooga Airport, TN 49 40 54 34 47 / 0 30 100 50 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 46 35 52 29 43 / 0 30 100 60 0 Oak Ridge, TN 46 36 50 27 43 / 0 30 100 60 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 46 32 50 25 39 / 0 20 100 80 0.
Fog formation in the valleys tonight as high pressure builds.
355 AM EST Sat Jan 8 2022 A period of freezing rain is anticipated north of highway 24 this evening and will cause slick spots on area roads.
A front/trof axis will move across the state today. Even with these warmer temperatures, fire weather concerns are not expected as afternoon relative humidity looks to be far too marginal for any major headlines. These clouds are in association with a passing jet/trof axis moving across the greater region through the early morning.
A wind shift to the north is expected following a cold front shortly beyond the scope of this TAF cycle. /issued 250 PM CST Fri Jan 7 2022/ Quiet weather today under zonal flow aloft, will gradually bend southwest tonight and tomorrow as a broad upper trough deepens and expands across the western CONUS. Warm air advection and downsloping tomorrow will lift high temperatures into the low 70s for most locations across our area.
1041 PM CST Fri Jan 7 2022 Upper level ridging will build across the into the evening as troughiness develops to the west. Soundings and model output support wind gusts of 40 to 55 mph across parts of east central SD and especially into southwest MN in and around the Buffalo Ridge where gusts should be the highest. This is in response to a fairly strong trough to the north.
1100 PM MST Fri Jan 7 2022 Updated Aviation Discussion Gusty southwest winds today will give way to a cold front sliding southeast across north-central Montana this evening into the overnight, bringing a brief return to chilly conditions.
/issued 256 PM CST Fri Jan 7 2022/ Surface analysis this afternoon places a 1030 mb ridge of arctic high pressure over Kentucky. GOES-16 Satellite indicates a few high clouds moving across the Lower Mississippi Valley with sunny to mostly sunny skies prevailing across the area this afternoon.
1008 PM EST Fri Jan 7 2022 High pressure will bring cool and dry weather to the area tonight and Saturday.
218 AM CST Sat Jan 8 2022 The cold front will be mainly east of our northwest counties by 12Z this morning. Winds will quickly switch out of the west and northwest and become breezy, as much cooler air will sink in.
259 AM CST Sat Jan 8 2022 Morning upper-level water vapor analysis shows a trough moving across the western CONUS. As this upper trough moves east, it will result in height falls over the area and will deepen a Lee cyclone that was centered over NE New Mexico at 2 AM this morning. This cyclone is forecast to move south later this morning and east across the Texas Panhandle through today. Winds should start to decrease late this afternoon as the low moves farther to the east, and the atmosphere decouples after sunset. The aforementioned upper trough will push a cold front through the area late this afternoon into this evening, resulting in some breezy winds and cooler temperatures.
Dewpoints are a bit lower than models suggested this evening, and with calm winds, clear skies, and still plenty of snow cover, temps may continue to fall into the low to mid teens before dewpoints recover tonight.
231 AM CST Sat Jan 8 2022 Another cold start to the day across the Tennessee Valley with current temperatures as of 08z in the low to mid 20s. High pressure over the mid Atlantic region shifts east today. This brings a more westerly flow pattern to the southeast and under mostly sunny skies warms temperatures up this afternoon into the lower 50s. Overnight a warm front lifts northward across MS/AR with the eastern portion of the front clipping NW AL.
Some MVFR ceilingswill begin to move in from the west by early Saturday evening through midnight as the next cold front approaches from the northwest.
917 AM EST Sat Jan 8 2022 High pressure will bring a cool day today while Sunday warms up as the high moves offshore. A cold front then brings a few showers late Sunday night.
Patchy valley fog and chilly temperatures will give way to a pleasant Saturday as high pressure continues to develop over the Northeast Pacific. High pressure will persist into Sunday and will shift eastward over the Western U.
357 AM MST Sat Jan 8 2022 09z surface analysis had low over north central ND with cold front into southern MT. Water vapour loop depicted upper trough across the northern Rockies heading in our direction.
543 AM CST Sat Jan 8 2022 Updated for 12Z aviation discussion 12Z TAF discussion: VFR/MVFR as the low stratus moves up into JAN/HKS this morning. The high pressure ridge that has kept the quiet weather in place has moved off to the east. This, combined with stronger warm air advection in the mid levels will result in much warmer temps today and tonight, although increasing winds will likely mitigate the apparent temps somewhat. That warmer air moving into the region will also bring plenty of moisture in the return flow. /HJS/ Sunday: A cold front will approach the area early Sunday, with scattered showers and isolated storms ongoing mainly in our northwest area at daybreak.
Some concern remains patchy drizzle will develop from this deck over northeast AR and the MO bootheel before temps warm above freezing. Midlevel height falls will continue over the Midsouth this afternoon and tonight, driving the low level moist conveyor belt and upstream cold front east, in closer proximity to the Midsouth. The aforementioned cold front will pass through the Midsouth early Sunday, exiting northeast MS in the early afternoon. The early to midweek periods will see a persistent trof over the east, ridge in the intermountain west, and a cut-off upper low over the desert southwest. trof, with generally fair conditions and moderating temperatures. By late week, model consensus brings the weakening cut-off upper low into the southern plains, with rain chances increasing downstream across the Midsouth.
The cold front will be mainly east of our northwest counties by 12Z this morning. Winds will quickly switch out of the west and northwest and become breezy, as much cooler air will sink in. The high will sink to our southeast, with another area of high pressure nearing from the northwest. Northwest flow aloft with the trough axis just to the east to start things off, with that flow bringing a 1040mb high pressure into the region.
Another cold start to the day across the Tennessee Valley with current temperatures as of 08z in the low to mid 20s. High pressure over the mid Atlantic region shifts east today. This brings a more westerly flow pattern to the southeast and under mostly sunny skies warms temperatures up this afternoon into the lower 50s. Overnight a warm front lifts northward across MS/AR with the eastern portion of the front clipping NW AL. As the warm front moves north into TN on Sunday, moisture advection during the day will raise dewpoints into the 50s and increase PWs to 1-1.
North breezes will develop today behind a weak trough brushing southern Nevada. A ridge of high pressure will rebuild over the region Sunday and early in the week with temperatures holding near normal.
Isentropic ascent rather broad, though weak pressure perturbation along and convergent flow along 280K could be enough to produce freezing drizzle/drizzle.
(Today through Sunday afternoon) An upper level trough is over the western part of the country with West Texas and Southeast New Mexico under west to southwest upper winds. This upper trough will progress eastward today. Surface winds across West Texas and Southeast New Mexico will strengthen out of the west this afternoon in response to the approaching upper trough. High winds are expected this afternoon in the Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains so the High Wind Watch has been upgraded to a High Wind Warning. A cold front will push into the area tonight/Sunday morning as the upper trough continues moving eastward.
410 AM CST Sat Jan 8 2022 (Issued 410 AM CST Sat Jan 8 2022) Today through Sunday: A period of freezing drizzle is expected for areas along and south of a Janesville to Port Washington line late this afternoon into tonight. With temperatures well below freezing there is a concern for freezing drizzle to impact the area late this afternoon into tonight. Heading into today the main questions are how widespread will the freezing drizzle be and how far north will it push? Unfortunately these answers may not be known until drizzle begins to develop.
952 AM EST Sat Jan 8 2022 High pressure will slide off to the east today. Rain will overspread the area tonight into Sunday morning ahead of a cold front. High pressure will then offer dry and seasonably cold temperatures for the first part of the week.
A front/trof axis will move across the state today. Even with these warmer temperatures, fire weather concerns are not expected as afternoon relative humidity looks to be far too marginal for any major headlines. These clouds are in association with a passing jet/trof axis moving across the greater region through the early morning. 850 hPa temperatures will continue to flirt around freezing through the day. This supports much cooler highs with as mix of upper 30s to lower 40s across the FA. Winds will be fairly light and variable as a center of high pressure moves across the Central Plains. Pops will continue to remain at zero percent under this high.
220 AM MST Sat Jan 8 2022 09z surface analysis had low over north central ND with cold front into southern MT. Water vapour loop depicted upper trough across the northern Rockies heading in our direction.
Otherwise, with high pressure building over the Pacific Northwest, the potential for mist and fog will exist later Saturday night into Sunday morning for KYKM and KPSC.
626 AM EST Sat Jan 8 2022 A period of freezing rain is anticipated north of highway 24 this evening and will cause slick spots on area roads.
As we work into the overnight hours tonight into Sunday morning, a warm front will slide into the region from the southwest and push into the northeastern portions of the state just after sunrise. This activity will need to be monitored in addition to the cold front. As we get into the late afternoon/early evening the cold front will begin to catch the pre-frontal convection and we could see some interaction between the two before the activity works out.
A cold front splitting the region will allow for a cool Saturday across the plains of Central and North-central Montana. Temperatures behind the front, in Central and North-central Montana, have dropped from the lower to mid 30s, to the single digits above and below zero. High temperatures across the region will reside in the vicinity of average for this time of the year, except in Hill and Blaine counties, where cooler temperatures are expected to hold on through the day Sunday into Sunday night.
248 AM MST Sat Jan 8 2022 Pattern change approaching during the next 24 hours as the fast- moving flow buckles across the US, with ridging building across the Rockies and a larger-scale trough dropping south across the eastern half of the US. The final H5 trough axis sweeps across the western half of the state today, bringing a slightly cooler atmosphere. Snow continues to fall across the western mountains, and will continue until the trough sweeps through late this morning. The cooler air continues to move into local basins on Sunday, with highs at or just below normal, mainly in the 20s. The only area that will buck this trend will be Johnson County, where the westerly flow off the Bighorn Mountains will bring some downsloping, pushing temperatures upwards into the lower 40s.
A large high pressure ridge is currently centered over the Mid Atlantic states and its keeping things dry. The high center will continue to move east today creating a wedge over NE GA. This wedge will continue to strengthen as the ridge center moves off the Mid Atlantic coast tonight. As this area of storms makes landfall they rapidly get sucked into the southwesterly flow become organized with a cold frontal boundary moving SE out of the western Great lake states Sat night/Sun morning. As this system pushes into GA early Sun morning temps across eastern portions of the area will be near the freezing mark. the immediate weather story continues to be the potent low over the Hudson Bay and its associated cold front.
556 AM EST Sat Jan 8 2022 High pressure will slide off to the east today. Rain will overspread the area tonight into Sunday morning ahead of a cold front. High pressure will then offer dry and seasonably cold temperatures for the first part of the week.
517 AM EST Sat Jan 8 2022 High pressure has begun building in across the region and winds have increased in response. Temperatures along the island chain are currently in the lower to mid 70s and dewpoints have crept up to the lower 70s, making for somewhat of a muggy morning. High pressure will continue to build into the region today and winds will increase throughout the day.
320 AM CST Sat Jan 8 2022 The melt will be on today as temps finally get above freezing for the first time in a few days. This SFC boundary/wave will move into our west overnight, followed by a secondary cold front around midday Sunday.
621 AM EST Sat Jan 8 2022 High pressure will bring a cool day today while Sunday warms up as the high moves offshore. A cold front will bring a few showers late Sunday night.
Strong ridge of high pressure stretching across the Eastern Seaboard will keep dry conditions across the Florida Peninsula most of the weekend. Then, a broad upper level trough and associated cold front weaken it while approaching the region.
By Sunday, warm and moist air will begin to move in ahead of a cold front.
This waa/moisture advection will aid in rising temps early this morning into the daylight hours on Saturday, keeping surface temps above freezing. Clouds will be slow to erode from west to east, which will keep temps cooler than they might realize across portions of central into eastern Oklahoma. A strong cold front will move south through the area tonight with gusty north winds. Temperatures will range by early Sunday morning from the mid 20s in the northwest to the lower 40s in the southeast.