Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Will start to see a change in the weather pattern as the upper low which has been influencing the weather across the area the past several days starts shifting east. High pressure continues to build in at the surface which will lead to mostly sunny skies and slightly warmer temperatures. Highs tomorrow will be in the low 50s along the lakeshore and in the mid 50s to around 60 elsewhere.
314 AM EDT Tue May 11 2021 Strong high pressure will build into the central United States and will be the primary influence on our weather through the workweek. A weak trough will pass through the region today, and a couple weak systems will approach the area this weekend as the High slowly weakens and shifts offshore. The period starts with low pressure aloft centered over the Great Lakes. The mid-week period will be uneventful as mid-lvl ridging and resultant sfc. High Pressure are positioned upstream of the area, in the vicinity of the Upper Midwest. Given the position of the High a dry NW flow will prevail Wed/Thu, with temperatures slowly moderating through the period but still remaining 5-10 degrees below normal (i.
An upper level trough will push off the Rockies today resulting in showers across portions of the forecast area. The next chance of precipitation arrives late Wednesday afternoon and evening as another weak trough pivots across Nebraska.
1119 PM MDT Mon May 10 2021 The closed low responsible for our unsettled weather this afternoon remains over central Idaho at this hour. Flow around this low, along with an upper level jet streak, and cooler temperatures aloft have all combined to create a showery, and now stormy afternoon. Still looking for some light snow overnight in the 1 to 3 inch range for the higher terrain along the Divide and onto the Grand Mesa. A weak ridge begins to build in over the Desert Southwest on Wednesday.
333 AM CDT Tue May 11 2021 Early this morning a mid level trough was located over the central Rockies with profilers showing embedded energy ejecting out across Kansas and another wave upstream in western Colorado at 08Z. For today this area of mid level frontogenetic forcing will move eastward as the mid level trough shears out as it moves into the Plains this afternoon with energy ejecting eastward across Kansas. This will focus the light precipitation mainly south of I-70 this morning with the higher QPF expected along and south of Highway 56 where up to a quarter of an inch of rain is possible.
Quiet weather persists over the region into late week, with high pressure in control. A gradual warming trend towards near-normal temperatures is expected by the end of the week through airmass modification and eventually a developing light southerly wind, as the high begins to shift slowly east late week. For the upcoming weekend we may see shower chances return, as a few upper level disturbances crest the northern Rockies ridge and dive into the central CONUS. Winds will likely remain around 10 kts predominantly from the northeast today,then become light and variable tonight as high pressure builds in.
A fairly narrow ribbon of focused W-E mid-level frontogenesis will move across central Kansas this morning ahead of the approaching upper trof moving into the central Rockies. Clouds and precip should keep high temperatures a few degrees cooler than yesterday. The central Plains upper trof will weaken as it shears eastward across Kansas and the Midwest tonight into early Wednesday.
With high pressure building in to our north, we'll see a lake breeze charge inland this afternoon which will probably push all the way through our I-39 locales by early this evening. H85 temps will take a bit of a jump as this occurs, which will allow our surface temperatures to respond by inching back into the low and even mid 60s away from the lake, with low to mid 50s lakeside. Carlaw 302 AM CDT Wednesday night should finally feature our last in a series of frosty nights across the region and likely on a bit more of a localized basis as high pressure starts to build off to our east.
414 AM EDT Tue May 11 2021 High pressure will result in dry conditions and below average temperature the majority of the week. providing a better setup for radiational cooling and temperature dropping to at or near freezing. In coordination with surrounding offices,a Freeze Watch was issued the ridges southeast of PGH. Dry conditions continue Wednesday with high pressure in control.
High pressure will dominate over the next few days leading to winds at or below 15 knots for most areas.
357 AM CDT Tue May 11 2021 Early morning water vapor imagery shows an upper level low sitting over the Great Lakes, with a weak local jet max ejecting out of Colorado. The cooler air brought down by this high pressure is leading to early morning temperatures in the mid to lower 30s, which will be quick to rebound once the sun rises due to the dry airmass over the region.
233 AM MDT Tue May 11 2021 Low pressure continues to affect northeastern Utah and western Colorado early this Tuesday morning. The center of this low pressure system was located over far southwestern Wyoming prior to sunrise, and is expected to traverse eastward along the Wyoming/Colorado border through the day today. However, low pressure will quickly pass east of the divide by 6pm or so, with drier northwesterly flow moving in in earnest for the remainder of the evening. A few isolated afternoon showers may affect the Park and Gore ranges given cooler air aloft once convective temperatures are reached, but areal coverage is expected to be limited to only the higher peaks.
306 AM EDT Tue May 11 2021 Weak low pressure over Maine will circulate a steady stream of cooler than normal air across the region through Wednesday.
Dry and cool otherwise behind this wave tonight into Tuesday as high pressure over the Upper Midwest continues to funnel in cooler Canadian air.
1035 PM MDT Mon May 10 2021 Latest analysis shows an upper low over the Great Lakes region with an upper trough extending westward to another upper low over Idaho. At the surface, a broad area of high pressure is centered over Manitoba with low pressure over the four corners region, which is producing light easterly winds over much of the forecast area. Temperature profiles indicate that there might be some -SHRASN in the higher elevations of the Black Hills.
Mostly dry weather is expected for the remainder of the work week with a gradual warming trend taking place as high pressure prevails at the surface and a west-northwest flow takes shape aloft.
High pressure will rebound across the region mid to late in the week. The upper trough with a closed circulation center across far southern Idaho will continue to slowly move southeast through the night.
436 AM EDT Tue May 11 2021 High pressure builds across the area today. A weak trough crosses the region tonight. High pressure builds north of the region Tuesday night and Wednesday as low pressure tracks across the southeast states.
Temperatures are trending cooler than the NBM, so we elected to lower minimums to the NBM 25th percentile for that area. High pressure over the region will continue to be the main weather influence over the short term. Overall, temperatures will likely be slightly warmer than last night's (but still chilly for this time of year) as the center of the high pressure drifts to our southeast, resulting in surface winds swinging out of the south. Slightly warmer temperatures are expected for tomorrow with continued dry conditions.
1231 AM CDT Tue May 11 2021 H5 analysis from earlier this morning had a ridge of high pressure up the west coast of the CONUS into the Alaska Panhandle. East of this feature, low pressure was noted over Idaho into western Montana. However, further northeast into the northeastern forecast area and along the highway 20 corridor from Valentine to O'Neill, partly cloudy skies, and drier air in association with high pressure off to the northeast, will be favorable for lows in the lower 30s. The current guidance is near freezing for KLBF Tuesday night with 33 and 32 with the MAV and MET guidance respectively. The before mentioned H5 trough will migrate east of the Rockies on Wednesday.
256 AM MDT Tue May 11 2021 Satellite imagery shows upper low to our south moving from WY into CO, and an upstream wave dropping through southern BC/ Alberta. Cannot rule out a few lightning strikes, and per the low freezing levels some graupel as well.
310 AM EDT Tue May 11 2021 Short term (Today through Wednesday): Zonal flow continues to propagate across South Florida with weak ridging aloft courtesy of a 500mb ridge of high pressure centered just to our south. At the surface, a persistent ridge of high pressure which has allowed for enhanced onshore flow over the last several days will begin to weaken in influence. As the ridge of high pressure weakens, it will allow for a decrease in the pressure gradient across the area, and thus a reduction in winds across South Florida. Although southeasterly flow will be lighter due to the weakening of the ridge, ample low-level moisture will continue to be advected into South Florida with PWAT's of 1.
Despite this, light to calm winds should allow temperatures to slide into the lower to middle 30s in most areas. Models are in good agreement with high pressure slowly shifting southeast into Wisconsin from northern Minnesota today into Wednesday.
317 AM CDT Tue May 11 2021 As a weak cold front continues to slowly slide south across the region today, it will usher in a reinforcing shot of slightly cooler air. Expect mostly sunny skies on Wednesday with highs in the low to mid 60s.
Northwest flow aloft will be overhead through most of the area through the remainder of the week, until a broad ridge sets in later this weekend.
Cloud cover early this morning has hampered frost development in parts of the area as of this writing, with some stations still reports temperatures in the low-and-mid 40s.
Otherwise, have made some minor tweaks to temps based on current obs, which were running a few degrees cooler than previously fcst for the central portions of the region.
322 AM EDT Tue May 11 2021 Water vapor satellite this morning shows mid to upper-level troughing remaining over the Upper Great Lakes with multiple smaller scale waves embedded within the flow. The dCVA out ahead of this wave, coupled with reduced stability from the anomalous cold aloft, is producing another round of mostly snow showers across the area, although with surface wet bulb temps all right around or above freezing it's certainly possible that some of this is rain as well. After that, the story today will be generally clearing skies and warming temps as the trough overhead is gradually replaced by ridging currently over Northern Ontario. Went close to the 10th percentile of model guidance for lows, which will likely range from the mid 20s interior west to the low 30s east and along the lakeshores.
237 AM EDT Tue May 11 2021 High pressure builds across the area today. A weak trough crosses the region tonight. High pressure builds north of the region Tuesday night and Wednesday as low pressure tracks across the southeast states.
Stalled frontal boundary to the south, southeast of Tennessee today will stay to the south and southeast during the day today as high pressure builds south to southeast into the eastern Tennessee Valley.
At the surface, broad high pressure generally situated over the Upper Midwest has placed our region under the influence of cool and moist low-level easterly flow. Post frontal easterly flow will continue on Wednesday keeping the low clouds in place.
High pressure continues to dominate across the Peninsula keeping light southerly winds, warm, and muggy conditions over the region.
Tonight, temperatures will be a few degrees warmer than the previous night, but there could still be some frost/freeze issues for portions of our Wisconsin counties.
141 AM EDT Tue May 11 2021 A weak cold front will move through the area tonight. High pressure will then prevail through the rest of the week. Synoptically, an upper low is positioned across the northern Great Lakes region. Remaining post frontal clouds will clear Tuesday morning as high pressure builds in.
635 AM EDT Tue May 11 2021 High pressure builds across the area today. A weak trough crosses the region tonight. High pressure builds north of the region Tuesday night and Wednesday as low pressure tracks across the southeast states.
759 AM CDT Tue May 11 2021 Early morning water vapor imagery shows an upper level low sitting over the Great Lakes, with a weak local jet max ejecting out of Colorado. The cooler air brought down by this high pressure is leading to early morning temperatures in the mid to lower 30s, which will be quick to rebound once the sun rises due to the dry airmass over the region.
At the same time, an upper low over the Great Lakes will swing E into the Atlantic allowing for a strong N flow behind it over the N Plains and Great Lakes.
439 AM MDT Tue May 11 2021 Upper ridge and high pressure will be moving through the region over the next few days. This will bring warmer and dry conditions to eastern Montana.
626 AM CDT Tue May 11 2021 As a weak cold front continues to slowly slide south across the region today, it will usher in a reinforcing shot of slightly cooler air. Expect mostly sunny skies on Wednesday with highs in the low to mid 60s.
728 AM EDT Tue May 11 2021 High pressure will result in dry conditions and below average temperature the majority of the week. providing a better setup for radiational cooling and temperature dropping to at or near freezing. In coordination with surrounding offices,a Freeze Watch was issued the ridges southeast of PGH. Dry conditions continue Wednesday with high pressure in control.
623 AM CDT Tue May 11 2021 High pressure over the east will bring continued cooler than average temperatures, light winds, and dry conditions today. Winds will become breezy out of the south overnight with a tightening pressure gradient as the high exits to the southeast. The southerly flow on Wednesday will help draw up enough llm, though, to push min RH into the 35 to 45 percent range and will help keep fire danger from climbing above the high category.
639 AM EDT Tue May 11 2021 High pressure will then prevail through the rest of the week. A weak cold front boundary, as noted by a 5-10 mph northwesterly wind, is moving through the area early this morning. The local forecast area remains pinched between low pressure in the Northeast and high pressure in the upper Great Lakes. Afternoon highs struggle to reach the lower 60s. The airmass will moderate ever so slightly to favor afternoon high temperatures in the low 60s.
527 AM MDT Tue May 11 2021 Snow showers are expected to gradually decrease in both coverage & intensity over the next several hours as the trough axis pushes to the east of the area while rapidly weakening through the day.
Thankfully, the trough that brought us gusty winds the last few days will continue to push eastward which will allow the winds to ease. Overnight temperatures there are forecast to drop into the low to mid 50s.
318 AM MDT Tue May 11 2021 The H5 trough continues across the southern half of the state this morning, continuing to produce showery weather across the state. First area will be associated with the trough itself tracking along the I-80 corridor this morning. As the trough departs east, diffluence and northwesterly flow build across NW WY this afternoon, with a final round of rain for valleys and snow for higher elevations. The ridge will still be to the west of Wyoming, with northwest flow across the state.
1025 AM EDT Tue May 11 2021 A ridge axis extending from a high across the western Atlantic stretches back across the Sunshine State and the entirety of the Gulf of Mexico. Otherwise, temperatures are about the same as yesterday with current readings in the lower to mid 80s and dew points in the lower 70s. Short term update - Given the downward trend of shower activity, will maintain near nil rain chances for the Lower and Middle Keys for the remainder of today. Otherwise, mean layer ridging will remain in place through the next 24 to 48 hours, which will keep rain chances near climo with above average temperatures persisting.
Will see this trend continue through the morning with the highest coverage of rain initially over the south/west and more isolated activity elsewhere. As a large-scale mid/upper trough moves into the Plains today and another low-amplitude wave moves across TX, broad forcing for ascent will increase and the low-level mass field response will advect rich moisture over the area. Isolated flash flooding will be possible with the highest relative threat over southern sections. Tonight through Wednesday night, the Plains trough will continue pushing east with deep tropospheric moisture gradually waning.
530 AM CDT Tue May 11 2021 Cooler conditions remain in place across the region early this morning. Lows will fall into the upper 30s to the lower 40s early this morning. Highs this afternoon will once again only warm into the upper 50s to the lower 60s. Clouds will remain over the area tonight into wednesday morning and will limit full cooling, but below normal temperatures will still occur as lows in the lower to upper 40s occur. The cooler below normal conditions will occur again on Wednesday as highs warm into the lower to middle 60s.
329 AM MDT Tue May 11 2021 Expect cloudy and wet conditions over the short term period as an upper level trough along the MT/UT border slowly moves east across the Intermountain West. The Tri-State area will be under westerly flow aloft along the base of this trough. At the surface, a low pressure system over southern CO is providing an opportunity for the rain showers across the area and light snow along and west of the CO border. Overnight lows are expected to be in the lower 30s to lower 40s tonight with easterly winds at 5-15 kts. The Tri-State area is expected to be under southwesterly to westerly flow aloft as the trough moves closer. A low pressure system will bring a round of precipitation that will affect both terminals.
541 AM MDT Tue May 11 2021 Low pressure continues to affect northeastern Utah and western Colorado early this Tuesday morning. The center of this low pressure system was located over far southwestern Wyoming prior to sunrise, and is expected to traverse eastward along the Wyoming/Colorado border through the day today. However, low pressure will quickly pass east of the divide by 6pm or so, with drier northwesterly flow moving in in earnest for the remainder of the evening. A few isolated afternoon showers may affect the Park and Gore ranges given cooler air aloft once convective temperatures are reached, but areal coverage is expected to be limited to only the higher peaks.
Low cigs should lift at most TAF sites this afternoon, but will return late tonight as a cold front surges wwd. /issued 416 AM CDT Tue May 11 2021/ Upper low over UT/CO this morning has a trough that extends southward to Mexico. As the low weakens this trough will cross the Rockies today and lose most of its definition as it moves onto the plains tonight. On Wednesday an upper ridge will build across the Western US with a weak remnant of the trough on its east side.
539 AM EDT Tue May 11 2021 A weak cold front over Northwestern PA early this morning will drift southeast across the state today, possibly accompanied and followed by a brief shower or two.
The cool trough of this past weekend will be replaced by weak westerly flow with a couple waves moving through the flow.
809 AM EDT Tue May 11 2021 A weak cold front over Northwestern PA early this morning will drift southeast across the state today, possibly accompanied and followed by a brief shower or two.
341 AM PDT Tue May 11 2021 High pressure will build over the region with warming temperatures and lessening wind.
Broad upper level troughing currently lingers across MT and WY to the south of an upper level high centered over SK.
832 AM EDT Tue May 11 2021 Strong high pressure will build into the central United States and will be the primary influence on our weather through the workweek. A weak trough will pass through the region today, and a couple weak systems will approach the area this weekend as the High slowly weakens and shifts offshore. Otherwise, low pressure aloft remains centered over the Great Lakes. The mid-week period will be uneventful as mid-lvl ridging and resultant sfc. High Pressure are positioned upstream of the area, in the vicinity of the Upper Midwest. Given the position of the High a dry NW flow will prevail Wed/Thu, with temperatures slowly moderating through the period but still remaining 5-10 degrees below normal (i.
At the same time a cold front is progged to move slowly south through the forecast area providing an additional focus for convection. Expect cooler temperatures on Wedneday in the wake of the front with highs in the 70s/low 80s.
There is still a low chance that a shower makes it into southern areas late so will keep the low PoPs there. Stalled frontal boundary to the south, southeast of Tennessee today will stay to the south and southeast during the day today as high pressure builds south to southeast into the eastern Tennessee Valley.
938 AM EDT Tue May 11 2021 High pressure will build into the Ohio Valley today as a weak mid-level disturbance provides mostly cloudy skies. A weakening mid-level disturbance will ripple through the base of a Great Lakes-centered longwave trough today. The airmass will moderate ever so slightly to favor afternoon high temperatures in the low 60s.
A cold front will move slowly into the region late tonight with light N-NE winds developing in its wake and MVFR ceilings with continued chances for showers/storms through 12z Wed. At the same time a cold front is progged to move slowly south through the forecast area providing an additional focus for convection. Expect cooler temperatures on Wedneday in the wake of the front with highs in the 70s/low 80s.
That said, given the high PW values expected again across the area and more than adequate forcing, areas of heavy rain are likely to occur beginning in the northern part of the forecast area and slowly pushing southward.
Quiet weather persists over the region into late week, with high pressure in control. A gradual warming trend towards near-normal temperatures is expected by the end of the week through airmass modification and eventually a developing light southerly wind, as the high begins to shift slowly east late week. For the upcoming weekend we may see shower chances return, as a few upper level disturbances crest the northern Rockies ridge and dive into the central CONUS. High pressure building in over the next 24 hours will continue to provide VFR conditions, with NNE winds around 10 kts becoming light and variable tonight.
521 AM CDT Tue May 11 2021 High pressure sets up shop for the next few days, promising some mostly sunny and quiet (dry) days.
Short term (Today through Wednesday): Zonal flow continues to propagate across South Florida with weak ridging aloft courtesy of a 500mb ridge of high pressure centered just to our south. At the surface, a persistent ridge of high pressure which has allowed for enhanced onshore flow over the last several days will begin to weaken in influence. As the ridge of high pressure weakens, it will allow for a decrease in the pressure gradient across the area, and thus a reduction in winds across South Florida. Although southeasterly flow will be lighter due to the weakening of the ridge, ample low-level moisture will continue to be advected into South Florida with PWAT's of 1.
422 AM MDT Tue May 11 2021 Snow showers are expected to gradually decrease in both coverage & intensity over the next several hours as the trough axis pushes to the east of the area while rapidly weakening through the day.
A few of the high res model models develop additional thunderstorms late this afternoon and evening over the lower Trans Pecos and push this activity into our far western counties. Otherwise, we'll continue to see much cooler (and well below normal) temperatures not unlike the second week of May.