Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. /ISSUED 321 PM CDT TUE AUG 18 2015/ MAIN IMPACTS WILL BE STRONG COLD FRONT AND CONVECTION NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER AND DRIER/COOLER AIR BEHIND FRONT WILL LEAD TO A VERY COOL DAY FOR AUGUST.
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. /ISSUED 321 PM CDT TUE AUG 18 2015/ MAIN IMPACTS WILL BE STRONG COLD FRONT AND CONVECTION NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER AND DRIER/COOLER AIR BEHIND FRONT WILL LEAD TO A VERY COOL DAY FOR AUGUST.
MODELS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH PRECIPITATION BOTH PERSISTING IN THE VICINITY OF SLOWING FRONT AND ALSO DEVELOPING LATER TONIGHT WITH ELEVATED FRONT AIDED BY UPPER JET/UPPER TROUGH. WED NIGHT-THU NIGHT: RIDGE SHOULD MOVE ACROSS AREA WED NIGHT WITH RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING ON THU. -HOWERTON COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHWARD OUT OF SOUTHEAST KANSAS EARLY OVERNIGHT.
637 PM CDT TUE AUG 18 2015 ROBUST UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED EAST OF THE AREA FOR THE MOST PART BUT WILL CONTINUE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN OUR NORTHEAST FOR ANY PCPN WRAPPING AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW. MUCH DRIER/COOLER AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHEAST BEHIND A SFC COLD FRONT. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE AS THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH SLIDE EAST OF THE REGION.
WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHERLY THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. /ISSUED 305 PM CDT TUE AUG 18 2015/ COLD FRONT CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS WILL MOVE INTO PORTIONS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE DIRECTLY BEHIND FRONT OVERNIGHT AS STRONGER FORCING DEVELOPS IN ASSOCIATION WITH STRONG UPPER TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS.
MODELS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH PRECIPITATION BOTH PERSISTING IN THE VICINITY OF SLOWING FRONT AND ALSO DEVELOPING LATER TONIGHT WITH ELEVATED FRONT AIDED BY UPPER JET/UPPER TROUGH. WED NIGHT-THU NIGHT: RIDGE SHOULD MOVE ACROSS AREA WED NIGHT WITH RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING ON THU. -HOWERTON A CLUSTER OF STRONG-SEVERE STORMS ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. WILL SWEEP ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST KS JUST AHEAD OF MAIN COLD FRONT INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. THE MAIN COLD FRONT SHOULD BE THROUGH ICT TERMINAL BY ISSUANCE TIME. SOUTH WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
734 PM EDT TUE AUG 18 2015 A MOIST FLOW CIRCULATING AROUND OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW CIRCULATING AROUND OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE HAS RESULTED IN HIGH MOISTURE IN THE FORECAST AREA. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE HEAVY DOWNPOURS BECAUSE OF THE HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER. CLOUDINESS FAVORS THE WARMER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE TONIGHT. USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST. USED THE WARMER LOW TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE BECAUSE OF THE HIGH MOISTURE.
HOWEVER LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR FILTERING INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AS THE AXIS OF THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL RETURN AS THE STRONG UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS CONTINUES ITS EASTERN PROGRESSION.
/ISSUED 321 PM EDT TUE AUG 18 2015/ WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS RIDGING ACROSS FLORIDA WITH A CLOSED LOW MOVING WEST ACROSS THE CARIB. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST SOUTH OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT THROUGH WED WITH RIDGING HOLDING LOCALLY. STEERING WINDS WILL PREVAIL OUT OF THE EAST SOUTHEAST BECOMING EAST NORTHEASTERLY BY THE WEEKEND AS THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE MOVES INTO THE GULF WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. /GREGORIA PREVAILING FLOW REMAINS EAST-SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE WEEK OVER BOTH THE GULF AND ATLANTIC WATERS AS THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS REMAINS TO THE NORTH. SPEEDS AROUND 10-15KTS OVER THE ATLANTIC AND 5- 10KTS OVER THE GULF WILL BECOME 5KTS OR LESS INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN.
726 PM CDT TUE AUG 18 2015 VERY POWERFUL LOW PRESSURE MOVING FROM SOUTHWEST MN TO THE ARROWHEAD REGION BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. IT IS VERY RARE TO SEE SUCH A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE SUMMER. IN FACT IT MAY WELL RIVAL THE LOW PRESSURE RECORD FOR MSP.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUED TO PUSH NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS EVENING. WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM WESTERN OKLAHOMA THROUGH EASTERN KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI INTO IOWA AND MINNESOTA. ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND ALSO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. ALSO BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. NORTHERLY WINDS AND A MUCH COOLER AIRMASS WILL BEGIN TO FILTER INTO THE REGION. LOWS TEMPS WEDNESDAY MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO GET INTO THE 60S ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS TO THE LOW/MID 70S FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40.
749 PM EDT TUE AUG 18 2015 ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL INTO LATE WEEK WHILE AN INLAND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AND WEAK COLD FRONT EVENTUALLY APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST.
A broad upper level trough dominates much of the CONUS this evening with a weakness extending southward into TX. A downstream ridge is found over FL and the eastern GOMEX. Surface analysis shows high pressure off the Southeast U.
840 PM EDT TUE AUG 18 2015 HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUED TO RIDGE ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TODAY ALLOWING FOR THE EAST AND WEST COAST SEA BREEZE TO SETUP.
WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL HIGH AND A DEEPENING MARINE LAYER ALLOWED FOR COOLER TEMPERATURES INLAND TODAY. TEMPERATURES WERE AS MUCH AS 10-15 DEGREES COOLER WITH A FEW PLACES IN THE NORTH BAY INTEREIOR UP TO 20 DEGREES COOLER.
1002 PM EDT TUE AUG 18 2015 ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL INTO LATE WEEK WHILE AN INLAND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AND WEAK COLD FRONT EVENTUALLY APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST.
Temperatures are trending cooler this evening anywhere from 2 to 12 degrees.
707 PM EDT TUE AUG 18 2015 A MOIST FLOW CIRCULATING AROUND OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW CIRCULATING AROUND OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE HAS RESULTED IN HIGH MOISTURE IN THE FORECAST AREA. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE HEAVY DOWNPOURS BECAUSE OF THE HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER. CLOUDINESS FAVORS THE WARMER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE TONIGHT. USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST. USED THE WARMER LOW TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE BECAUSE OF THE HIGH MOISTURE.
1121 PM CDT TUE AUG 18 2015 VERY POWERFUL LOW PRESSURE MOVING FROM SOUTHWEST MN TO THE ARROWHEAD REGION BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. IT IS VERY RARE TO SEE SUCH A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE SUMMER. IN FACT IT MAY WELL RIVAL THE LOW PRESSURE RECORD FOR MSP.
THE COLD FRONT WILL INCREASE FORCING WITH MODELS INDICATING PERSISTENT CONVECTION ALONG THE BOUNDARY AS IT WORKS OVER OUR AREA BY MIDDAY.
REGIONAL 88D MOSAIC ALREADY SHOWS SHOWER ACTIVITY BEGINNING TO DEVELOP WELL OFFSHORE IN RESPONSE TO NEXT SLUG OF MOISTURE/WEAK WAVE ROUNDING THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE GULF. THIS IS BETWEEN AN UPPER LOW OVER MEXICO AND AN UPPER TROF THAT STRETCHES INTO TX AND ALSO A RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL AND EAST GULF INTO THE ATLANTIC.
WEAK RIDGING OFF TO THE EAST WILL HELP KEEP THE CONTINUED SOUTHERLY MOIST FLOW OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT AND THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP UPPER LOW WILL TRACK FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE DAY AS THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED WEAK RIDGING REMAINS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. WEAK WAVES WILL BE TRANSVERSING THE RIDGE SW TO NE AND WHEN YOU COMBINE THAT WITH THE SOUTHERLY MOIST FLOW AND PW AROUND 2 INCHES.
1038 PM EDT TUE AUG 18 2015 CURRENTLY - A BROAD ATLANTIC RIDGE EXTENDING INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES IS RESPONSIBLE FOR GENTLE TO MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST BREEZES ACROSS THE KEYS AREA. GENTLE TO MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST BREEZES ARE EXPECTED ON KEYS WATERS OVERNIGHT DUE TO RIDGING TO OUR NORTH.
A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AROUND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC.
THEN THE MAIN LINE OF CONVECTION OUT AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THIS WAY FROM THE WEST AND MOVE ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION REFORMS AND THIS WILL MAKE LOW TEMPERATURE FORECASTING TRICKY FOR TONIGHT. WILL SEE WIDESPREAD BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WITH RECOVERING DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS INTO SOUTH TEXAS FROM SOUTHWEST MEXICO. AS THE GRADIENT WEAKENS IN RESPONSE TO BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE. THE HIGHER SEAS AND ANY MINOR COASTAL OVERWASH WILL SLOWLY ABATE THROUGH SUNSET.
1251 PM EST SUN NOV 8 2015 CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST TODAY.
109 PM CST SUN NOV 8 2015 AT H5 UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS MORNING AND A BROAD RIDGE OVER THE LOWER 48 EXTENDING WELL INTO CENTRAL CANADA. TROUGH EXITING THE EAST COAST AND A TROUGH ENTERING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. WITH THE COLD FRONT INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO GULF MOISTURE BLOCKED. COMPLEX FORECAST IN THE MID-RANGE AS A POWERFUL UPPER LOW DEVELOPSAND ADVANCES FROM THE FOUR CORNERS NORTHEAST TOWARD THE CENTRALPLAINS. ENSEMBLES AND ECMWF REMAIN IN DECENTAGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THE LOW.
226 PM EST SUN NOV 8 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE STATE TODAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COOLER IN SOUTHEAST KS WHERE COLDER AIR WILL BE RECIRCULATED AND MIXING WILL BE LIMITED. MON-TUE: WITH LOW PRESSURE DEEPENING TO THE WEST. BUT COOL DOWN IS SHORT LIVED WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW MODERATING THE COOLER AIR. TEMPERATURES BY SAT WILL BE AT LEAST IN THE LOWER 60S. AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE LATER RUNS SHOW EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES.
Surface ridging will maintain VFR conditions thru the TAF period. A similar scenario will exist tonight, with the coldest valleys again dropping to near or just below freezing.
214 PM EST SUN NOV 8 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES IN FROM THE NORTH.
TEMPERATURES SO FAR TODAY HAVE WARMED INTO THE LOWER 60S OVER A LARGE PORTION OF SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WITH UPPER 50S ELSEWHERE. OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER 30S WITH MOSTRLY CLEAR SKIES AS THE BNAND OF CIRRUS EVENTAULLY MOVES OFF. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE NORTHWEST.
1110 AM CST SUN NOV 8 2015 FOR 18Z TAFS /ISSUED 957 AM CST SUN NOV 8 2015/ CLOUDY CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN ALABAMA THIS MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S IN MOST LOCATIONS. THIS CLOUD COVER IS BEING PRODUCED BY AN INVERTED TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF THE NEW ORLEANS AREA INTO NE ALABAMA AND WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA. FURTHER NORTH A STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS ANCHORED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. THE INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE AREA WILL NOT MOVE MUCH. THIS SYNOPTIC COMBINATION WILL LIKELY STRENGTHEN CONVERGENCE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS INVERTED TROUGH AXIS.
LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF AND HIGH PRESSURE WAS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MAX TEMPS MIGHT GO A DEGREE OR SO WARMER THAN CURRENT FCST.
1043 AM CST SUN NOV 8 2015 HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SUNNY SKIES TODAY. 925 MB TEMPERATURE FIELDS FROM MODELS SUGGEST HIGHS REACHING THE LOWER 50 ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA DURING THIS PERIOD. ENOUGH GRADIENT WIND WITH TIGHTENING GRADIENT BETWEEN DEPARTING HIGH AND LEE TROUGH DEVELOPING IN THE PLAINS TO HELP HOLD LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S WITH MID 30S ALONG THE LAKE.
230 PM CST SUN NOV 8 2015 The sky can't get much clearer than it has been so far today, with central Illinois remaining along an axis of high pressure extending east to near Pittsburgh. These will continue to be drawn northward ahead of an upper low that is slowly moving east-northeast from the central Plains. Pcpn associated with the inverted trough will spread northwestward toward the area. Once this brief system gets well east of the area southerly winds and warmer temps will slowly begin to return to the region. Temps on Tue will be warmer/above normal for the area and looking for around 60 possible.
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS LOCATED OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO WITH A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING EAST NORTHEAST INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON. THE LOW OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE CAROLINAS AS THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA.
1054 AM CST SUN NOV 8 2015 SFC RIDGING EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION SW INTO CNTRL TX THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE WITH DRIER AIR ADVECTING SWD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. WITH THE NEW 12Z PROGS SUGGESTING THAT THEY MAY LINGER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON OVER THESE AREAS GIVEN THE HIGHER CONCENTRATION OF RH/S AND THETA-E THAT WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.
120 PM EST SUN NOV 8 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING THE AREA MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THROUGH MONDAY.
340 PM EST SUN NOV 8 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON MONDAY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTHEAST OHIO MONDAY NIGHT.
/ISSUED 1054 AM CST SUN NOV 8 2015/ SFC RIDGING EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION SW INTO CNTRL TX THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE WITH DRIER AIR ADVECTING SWD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. WITH THE NEW 12Z PROGS SUGGESTING THAT THEY MAY LINGER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON OVER THESE AREAS GIVEN THE HIGHER CONCENTRATION OF RH/S AND THETA-E THAT WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.
1155 AM EST SUN NOV 8 2015 CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST TODAY.
LEE TROUGHING HAS STRENGTHENED OVER EASTERN CO/EASTERN NM WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. RETURN FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN INTO TUE AS A DEEP TROUGH DIGS OVER CA AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE DESERT SW. MODELS HAVE SLOWED DOWN THIS TROUGH SLIGHTLY COMPARED TO YESTERDAYS RUNS WITH THE DRYLINE SURGING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA WED MORNING. THE BIGGER STORY WITH THIS POWERFUL LOW WILL BE STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WED AFTERNOON/EVENING AS THE LOW LIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. UPPER RIDGING OVER THE ROCKIES WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THIS WAVE SETTING UP DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS FOR THE WEEKEND.
WARMER TEMPS ON TARGET. IT SHOULD BE INTO THE LOW 60S AT LEAST IN THE SOUTH AND MID/UPPER 50S ELSEWHERE. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE IT GET A BIT WARMER EVEN.
1107 AM CST SUN NOV 8 2015 Center of the high pressure extends from central Illinois east to Ohio this morning, with abundant clear skies in place. Winds starting to swing more southerly on the back side of the high, which is helping temperatures rise nicely from widespread lows in the 20s. High pressure, and the associated dry airmass, continues to dominate the local weather which should result in sunny skies.
109 PM EST SUN NOV 8 2015 THE REGION WILL EXPERIENCE DRY AND COOL WEATHER AGAIN TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE TRAVELS EAST ACROSS THE AREA.
1132 AM CST SUN NOV 8 2015 THERE IS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN 2/3RDS OF THE COUNTRY WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTH INTO CALIFORNIA. BUT FORECAST MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THERE WILL BE NO PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS KANSAS/MISSOURI UPPER LOW.
THE LATEST IR SATL WAS SHOWING THAT THE CLOUDS WERE INCREASING ACROSS THE TWO STATE AREA IN RESPONSE TO A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DIVING SOUTH TOWARD THE PACNW COAST.
318 PM EST SUN NOV 8 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
420 PM EST SUN NOV 8 2015 DRY CONDITIONS WILL HOLD ON THROUGH MOST IF NOT ALL OF MONDAY BEFORE LOW PRESSURE MOVES TOWARDS THE REGION.
TEMPS ARE ON TRACK TO REACH THE LOWER 60S FOR MOST OF THE MID STATE. THE MAIN INFLUENCE ON OUR WX TODAY WILL BE A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM. A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH WAS SOUTH OF TN. THIS TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY SLIGHTLY TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS OVER WEST TX/OK THIS MORNING. AS THIS UPPER LOW MOVES ENE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. FOR 12Z TAFS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GULF WILL PUSH NORTHWARD THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE OTHER CONSEQUENCE WILL BE COOLER DAYTIME HIGHS ON MONDAY. RAINS SHOULD CLEAR OUT MONDAY NIGHT AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL REASSERT ITSELF ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS.
1145 AM EST SUN NOV 8 2015 IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT. GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO USHER A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS INTO THE REGION THROUGH TODAY.
THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW WITH A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN PLACE. MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AS OUR STRONG FALL STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPS OVER THE WEST COAST AND ROCKIES WE REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING. SOUTHERLY FLOW EXPECTED TO PERSIST TUE/TUE NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF SIGNIFICANT TROF APPROACHING FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. ESPECIALLY WITH SURFACE TEMPS LIKELY HOLDING A FEW DEGREES ABOVE FREEZING. IT NOW APPEARS THAT THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT COOLING ALOFT TO SUPPORT MOSTLY SNOW WITH THE SECOND UPPER LEVEL TROF. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION REMAINS ON THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF HIGH PRESSURE IN THE OHIO VALLEY.
255 PM MST SUN NOV 8 2015 UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD TONIGHT WITH LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING. TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER IN MOST PLACES BUT 5-10 DEGREES WARMER AROUND DIA AND IN THE FOOTHILLS. ON MONDAY IT WILL ONLY BE SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH A FEW HIGH CLOUDS SPREADING IN BY AFTERNOON.
416 PM EST SUN NOV 8 2015 HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRY AIRMASS WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
NOT READY TO JUMP ON THE HIGH QPF ADVERTISED BY THE NAM/WRF BUT THERE SHOULD BE QUITE A GRADIENT.
PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THE LOW LEVELS REDUCING CEILINGS DOWN TO IFR.
101 PM EST SUN NOV 8 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST TODAY.
A TAD WARMER THAN PROGGED IN THE EAST AND A TAD COOLER IN BELT OF LESSER WINDS FROM HCO-GFK-BAC. IT SHOULD BE INTO THE LOW 60S AT LEAST IN THE SOUTH AND MID/UPPER 50S ELSEWHERE. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE IT GET A BIT WARMER EVEN.
310 PM EST SUN NOV 8 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL TONIGHT. AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST AND WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY.
CLOUD COVER IS ON THE INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA AS THIS LOW LEVEL LIFT PUSHES FURTHER TO THE NORTH. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON MONDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES TO THE NORTH. WENT COOLER WITH THE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S FOR TOMORROW DUE TO THE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION.
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL CAUSE INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
1147 AM CST SUN NOV 8 2015 WEATHER WILL BE UNEVENTFUL TODAY WITH LITTLE MOISTURE OR FORCING AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN PLACE. AN OVERALL QUIET LATE AUTUMN WEATHER PATTERN WITH ROUGHLY NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE INTERRUPTED AND PUNCTUATED BY A SEASONALLY STRONG LOW PRESSURE CENTER MOVING ACROSS THE REGION AROUND MIDWEEK. PROGNOSTIC MODELS CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY CONVERGE ON SOLUTIONS FOR THE TRACK/TIMING OF THE LOW AND CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN A GENERAL EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM AND ITS SENSIBLE EFFECTS FOR OUR FORECAST AREA.
1217 PM EST SUN NOV 8 2015 QUIET WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDES SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS.
WINDS WILL REMAIN NORTHEASTERLY TODAY AND TONIGHT THEN VEER EAST TO SOUTHEAST ON MONDAY AS A LEE-SIDE TROUGH DEEPENS. AS THE LEE-SIDE TROUGH DEEPENS OVERNIGHT AND ON MONDAY. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON MONDAY AND RESULT IN SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS FROM THE MIDDLE 60S TO AROUND 70.
1228 PM EST SUN NOV 8 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING THE AREA MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THROUGH MONDAY.
1155 AM MST SUN NOV 8 2015 LOOKS LIKE TEMPERATURES WILL COME OUT SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON. COLDER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AND A BIT WARMER RIDGES/FOOTHILLS. SHARP UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS PROVIDING FOR CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL REMAIN OVER THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 5 TO 7 DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY AS AIRMASS WARMS A LITTLE MORE UNDER SUNNY SKIES AND SOME WARM ADVECTION ALOFT. THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EASTWARD ALLOWING LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND LEE TROUGH TO DEVELOP. THIS SHOULD KEEP AREAS IN/NEAR THE FOOTHILLS A LITTLE WARMER. MONDAY WILL BE ANOTHER NICE DAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE REGION BEGINS MOVING EASTWARD.
341 PM CST SUN NOV 8 2015 TONIGHT WILL NOT LIKELY BE AS COOL WITH SURFACE RIDGING SLIDING EAST OF THE AREA. UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE RIDGING WILL MOVE IN TONIGHT AND TOMORROW IN THE WAKE OF A LOW BEING PINCHED OFF NORTHEAST OF THE REGION. A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ONSHORE ON THE WEST COAST WILL ENCOURAGE DEVELOPMENT OF SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES.
628 AM CDT MON SEP 28 2015 12Z TAF CYCLE AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE PANHANDLES TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
AN ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TODAY BUT WEAKENS SOMEWHAT AS THE HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE BEGINS TO WEAKEN. WINDS WILL VEER NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE WEDGE SHIFTS EAST AND LOW PRESSURE IN THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO TRACKS ACROSS THE WEST FL PANHANDLE TUE AND INTO SOUTH GA TUE NIGHT.
WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS IN THE LOWER-LEVELS AND WESTERLY WINDS IN THE UPPER-LEVELS. THE RIDGE TO OUR SOUTH WILL BREAK DOWN SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER-LEVEL LOW TRAVERSES EAST ACROSS NORTHERN CA. THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN FAVOR LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE WEST COAST. WHICH WOULD CREATE COOLER WEATHER FOR SW CA. WHILE THE GFS FAVORS RIDGING ALOFT AND WARMER WEATHER. CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF THE LOW CLOUDS AT KSAN TONIGHT IS MODERATE.
630 AM CDT MON SEP 28 2015 SURFACE MAP EARLY THIS MORNING FEATURES HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY REGION WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH SOUTHWEST MN. RADAR WAS SHOWING SCATTERED BAND OF SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT OVER WESTERN U. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SINK SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS MID-LEVEL TROUGH ENERGY APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS. COOLER/DRIER CANADIAN AIRMASS PUSHES IN ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS MORE TYPICAL OF AUTUMN.
935 AM EDT MON SEP 28 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MAINE WILL DRIFT WELL OFFSHORE BY LATER TODAY. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.
MEANWHILE ISOLATED LOCATIONS FELL BELOW FREEZING THIS MORNING AND WITH DAYTIME HEATING THE FREEZE WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE SOON. OTHERWISE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE AREAS WEATHER WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL.
/ISSUED 402 AM CDT MON SEP 28 2015/ MODELS IN GENERAL HAVE RECENTLY TRENDED TO NOT HAVE THE UPPER HIGH PRESSURE PLAY SUCH A DOMINANT ROLE THIS WEEK IN OKLAHOMA'S WEATHER. WHILE THE RIDGE WILL LIKELY STILL RANGE ACROSS OKLAHOMA, THE CENTER OF THE HIGH IS NOW FORECAST TO BE FARTHER WEST.
1008 AM EDT MON SEP 28 2015 HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL PUSH OUT TO SEA TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA LATE TUESDAY.
Not much change in the overall pattern as the cut off low pressure aloft continues to track over the mid south. High temperatures today should reach the low to mid 80s with mostly sunny skies. Later today a mid/upper level trough will dig across the Great Lakes region, which will push a front into the forecast area tonight. The good news however is that the prospects for hazardous weather appear to be low as models have trended cooler and less unstable. The main culprit in the uncertain forecast appears to be the upper level jet stream buckling over the Pacific and not providing much steering flow over the lower 48. The trend has been for the cold air advection behind the boundary to be stronger, so the main adjustments to the forecast were to trend temps on Tuesday cooler.