Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
957 PM CDT WED AUG 24 2016 High pressure at the surface and aloft prevails across the Mid- South. /issued 344 PM CDT WED AUG 24 2016/ The mid-level anticyclone is firmly entrenched over the southeast CONUS this afternoon. Despite a modest diurnal Cu field, temperatures have warmed into the low/mid 90s across the Mid- South. Expect overnight lows similar to what we experienced this morning, with temperatures generally in the low/mid 70s. Temperatures tomorrow will be similar to today's, with highs in the low/mid 90s. Afternoon showers and thunderstorms are anticipated again tomorrow, but like today, the subsidence associated with the upper-level ridge will limit coverage.
The weak upper trough responsible for the showers will hang over the area through Thursday for a slight chance of afternoon showers and thunderstorms in the far eastern portions of the Boise/West Central Mountains.
VFR flight categories will prevail with mainly scattered lower clouds around 5 kft and ceilings of middle and high clouds from 13 kft to 25 kft for much of the lower half of East Texas and North Louisiana and parts of Southwest and South Central Arkansas.
237 AM CDT WED AUG 24 2016 Clouds, gusty northwest winds, cooler temperatures, and chances for showers across the north highlight the short term period. Latest water vapor imagery shows our slow moving closed upper low circulating over southeast Saskatchewan early this morning. At the surface, a secondary cold front stemming from low pressure in eastern Manitoba, stretched southwest to near Estevan and into northeast Montana. This cold front will continue to push southeast today continuing the ongoing cold air advection. A dry and cool northwest flow dominates Thursday as the closed low continues to shift farther east into Ontario.
On Thursday another trough will move into the Great Basin and the southwest gradient aloft will strengthen over the area. Areal coverage of showers and thunderstorms will increase and because of the shear aloft and dynamics ahead of the trough, some stronger storms will be possible.
Our region briefly gets out of the ridge that's been keeping us dry and we come under the influence of more of a zonal flow for a day. Airmass is more moist than it has been the last few days, but model precipitable waters are initializing too high, with the GFS going the highest having a PW greater than 2" at OHX, compared to the 1. Thus will keep going with slight chances of rain today and a warmer day. Thursday may see some lingering morning showers, but then the rest of the day, the ridge to our south will reestablish itself over the TN Valley by the end of the day.
Otherwise, mostly cloudy skies to prevail with lows only dipping into the low 70s. expect an area of thunderstorms to blossom near the MO/KS border in the proximity of the slowly progressing cold front to the south and east. Wednesday looks like a return to uncomfortable conditions for most as the combination of highs in the low to mid 80s and dewpoints above 70 degrees yield peak heat index values of 100-105. Leaned toward the warmer guidance for temperatures already so while heat index criteria (105+) cannot totally be ruled out.
Dew points will be back in the low 70s today. Aloft, upper level high is in control.
Latest upper air analysis shows a flat mid/upper level ridge from east Texas across the forecast area and the Gulf South. Rua Mid/upper level ridging will hold across the region today, and this will limit convection to the mainly isolated category, with the best chance in the afternoon near any sea breeze convergence boundaries. Temperatures will be close to climo with highs in the low 90s, with humid conditions allowing afternoon heat index readings to be near 103F degrees. The upper level ridge will move off to the northeast for Thursday and be centered over the Southeast U.
Water Vapor Satellite trends/00Z Upper Air analysis indicates a ridge of high pressure centered over Mississippi and Louisiana. As of 3 am CDT, temperatures across the Mid- South are in the lower to middle 70s at most locations with surface dewpoints also in the 70s. A hot and humid day is expected across the Mid-South today as temperatures will rise into the lower 90s this afternoon. Short term models indicate the upper level ridge will gradually shift east towards the Tennessee Valley.
345 AM EDT WED AUG 24 2016 Increasingly warmer and more humid air as the week progresses. Cold front approaches later in the week. Today will be the transition day as a weak warm front lifts northeastward across the area. While temperatures will be warmer than yesterday under southerly flow. with upper ridging across the eastern U.
For today, lots of high and mid clouds will continue to spread northward along with scattered showers and thunderstorms ahead of the main upper trough across New Mexico. A cold front will slowly work southeastward across western Kansas and could stall out around the Dodge City area this afternoon. Highs will be tricky depending on how thick the clouds become, and currently have low to mid 80s north of the cold front, and around 85 to 90 south of Dodge City. The cold front continues to stall near Dodge City ahead of the wave with good overrunning moisture. Lows tonight will be in the low to mid 60s, except ahead of the cold front in parts of south central Kansas, in the mid to upper 60s.
VFR conditions expected to continue through the next 24 hours as a mid level ridge continues overhead and provides subsidence across deep south Texas. Expect VFR conditions to prevail this evening through early Wednesday morning as the 500mb ridge across the northern Gulf of Mexico extending into south Texas continues to provide subsidence across the CWA. Otherwise, an H5 ridge will continue over the Southeast, and underlying high pressure centered over the mid-Atlantic states and extending south to the Northeast Gulf will influence the short term even as it fades slowly to the east and north. The lower pressure will be due partly to mid level troughing farther upstream and perhaps also due to thermal low deepening. Overall, slightly warmer than normal temperatures will continue locally, with Wednesday afternoon mid- Valley heat index readings from 103 to 108 degrees or so.
High pressure has built back into the region, with the weak residual boundary from prior days all but washed out.
A cold front will begin to enter the OK Panhandle near the end or just after this fcst cycle. Precip chances will persist through the overnight hours with primary hazards switching from severe to hydro during the late evening hours as the low-level jet ramps up.
Ongoing convection along a low-lvl theta-e ridge axis will continue for at least the next several hours.
An effective cold front/boundary may enter northwest Oklahoma Thursday; which may enhance the chance of convection.
High pressure over the eastern seaboard will continue to build south over the area through the period as an upper high remains centered over the southern US.
As the larger, baggy trough deepens across the Northern Rockies this afternoon, showers and thunderstorms will become a bit more numerous and widespread. Models are still showing some dry air filtering into the trough on Thursday, with showers remaining focused along the Canadian border and then father south across SW Montana and central Idaho (Lemhi County).
High pressure will be North of the region this period, resulting in onshore flow.
An upper level low pressure system continues to pass over the area this afternoon. The visible satellite image shows this low centered over roughly Northeastern Arizona, sliding into Northwestern New Mexico. The 1200Z ECMWF and GFS20 have initialized well with the current synoptic weather pattern and move today's low pressure system northeast across Colorado overnight. Westerly flow will fill in behind the low on Wednesday and will provide a lull in convective activity through roughly Thursday.
An upper ridge is centered over southern Mississippi with a weak easterly wave off the west coast of Florida.
Highs Wed will be in the lower to middle 90s inland and the upper 80s to lower 90s along the immediate coast.
While there may be a few weak short wave troughs that track northeast across the central Plains, there is not much synoptic scale support for that frontal boundary moving southeast.
High pressure retreating off the Northeast coast will ensure another dry day with southerly return flow bringing warmer temperatures and a gradual uptick in dewpoints/humidity levels. Milder overnight readings in the low-mid 60s. A closed 594DM upper high initially centered over the Deep South will slowly migrate northeastward into the southern Mid Atlantic by the end of the period. The front is forecast to weaken as it continues to push southeast encountering the building ridge aloft. A moist and unstable airmass will reside in advance of the weakening cold front which should prove favorable for the development of isolated to scattered convection from the OH Valley into western PA during the afternoon/evening hours.
339 AM EDT WED AUG 24 2016 High pressure will prevail into this weekend. Highs will top out in the lower 90s inland while a robust afternoon sea breeze limits temps to no higher than the upper 80s closer to the coast.
1230 AM CDT WED AUG 24 2016 Latest water vapor satellite imagery indicates closed upper level low over southern Saskatchewan Canada and upper level ridge over the Upper Midwest. 12z NAM is slower in movement of surface cold front. 12z NAM develops scattered convection across parts of northeast Iowa and southwest Wisconsin along surface cold front with GFS/ECMWF further south and out of forecast area. 12z GFS/ECMWF solution of cold front.
357 AM EDT WED AUG 24 2016 High pressure and upper level ridging will remain in control of the region through much of the period.
That system is progged to be the first in a series which will traverse the northern flank of the persistent Southeast CONUS ridge, and maintain periodic precip chances through Thursday. With little change in pattern as the disturbances will lack ridge erosion power, expect above average temperatures with the more humid near term weather, forecast of which was constructed using consensus short and superblend guidance.
Looking for moisture to continue to move around the upper ridge. Left the best rain chances along the highway 84 corridor. The upper ridge was expected to shift to the east slightly over Thursday, so more convection is possible across the northwest zones. Looks temperatures will be a little cooler also.
High pressure moving off to the east will give way to a more active weather pattern for the next few days.
330 AM PDT WED AUG 24 2016 A strong upper level ridge of high pressure over the north central Pacific will continue to steadily build east.
Expect to see a lull in the showers/storms for Thu morning through Thu Afternoon as the low level moisture transport shifts to the east.
Then weak troughing late in the week will cool temperatures to below normal levels.
405 AM EDT WED AUG 24 2016 Shower and thunderstorm chances will increase through Thursday ahead of a slow moving cold front. Challenging forecast with respect to shower/storm chances across the region until cold front and upper level features depart Thursday evening. cold front will approach the region with at least scattered showers and storms. Severe threat for today and tomorrow on the lower end but still something to watch.
Cold front currently bisecting the CWFA along a line from Chadron to Torrington to Rawlins out to Salt Lake City. Did increase PoPs across the mountains, especially near the Colorado/Wyoming border where both the GFS and ECMWF shows the highest QPF.
142 AM EDT WED AUG 24 2016 High pressure will bring pleasant weather to the region through Wednesday.
Water vapor imagery continues to indicate an east to west elongated mid level ridge over the northern Gulf of Mexico this morning. This deep layer ridge will continue over the region through the forecast period.
An upper low digging along the divide will increase northerly flow over region today.
A very dry air mass will remain over the region today as the upper level ridge over the southeast US to the Texas coastal plains holds. The upper level ridge drifts slightly to the north on Thursday. This higher moisture will move into the northern Coastal Bend on Thursday and provide a chance for convection. With ridge moving north and higher moisture, temperatures will be slightly cooler.
The protective upper level ridge will hang around the Southeastern U. today but a weak impulse will ride over the top of the ridge.
Pacific high pressure will continue build slowly through the high plains. High pressure remains stationed over the northern Plains on Thursday.
Temperatures will be a few degrees warmer each day.
645 AM EDT WED AUG 24 2016 High pressure and upper level ridging will remain in control of the region through much of the period.
This front will give us quite a range of dewpoints by early Wednesday morning, with near 50 expected in our northwest to mid 60s in our southeast, ahead of the cold front.
513 AM CDT WED AUG 24 2016 A little warmer this morning with dew points in the low to mid 70s and air in the mid to upper 70s. However, today looks to the hottest day this week overall with slightly cooler temps as rain clouds spread back in our direction under the Bermuda ridge today and then ahead of the cold front later in the week from the other direction. In fact, the Euro has a tropical cyclone in the Gulf to wrap up the month moving NW that has been persistent in the latest runs.
An area of low pressure and associated cold front is currently located along Highway 83. By then, an upper level trough should cool off 700 mb temps enough for convection to develop. Temperatures through Thursday will also be on the cool side with highs only in the low to mid 70s, with lows in the 40s and low 50s. Chances for showers and thunderstorms return to the forecast Thursday night as an upper level trough approaches the region from the west.
629 AM EDT WED AUG 24 2016 High pressure will remain to the south through Thursday.
625 AM EDT WED AUG 24 2016 Increasingly warmer and more humid air as the week progresses. Cold front approaches later in the week. Today will be the transition day as a weak warm front lifts northeastward across the area. While temperatures will be warmer than yesterday under southerly flow. with upper ridging across the eastern U.
Gusty northwest winds will decrease somewhat overnight as a low pressure system exits the area. A closed upper level low over Saskatchewan will move slowly east and leave Central and Southwest Montana underneath unsettled northwest flow aloft. Weak disturbances will rotate around the low and a weak cold front associated with one of these disturbances will cross the Canadian border this evening and push into the southwest zones by morning. The cooler air mass will keep temperatures well below normals Wednesday but temperatures will already begin to trend upwards again by Thursday.
S to SW winds up to 20 kts will persist today ahead of an approaching cold front. As trailing high pressure approaches and the gradient slackens, winds will veer to the NW and diminish to under 15 kts on Fri. Expect SE winds up to 20 kts to prevail over the weekend between the departing high pressure and a low pres approaching from the SW.
A vertically stacked upper low currently in southern Saskatchewan will move to Manitoba today. Wrap around moisture on the back side of the low will stay primarily over Saskatchewan today. High pressure will build into the area tonight quickly diminishing the winds and partially clearing the skies. High pressure will remain over the area on Thursday and clear to partly cloudy skies will allow for more sun and warmer temperatures.
an upper level ridge centered over the central Gulf coast sprawls across the Gulf and FL. High pressure along the eastern sea board continues. bridging a frontal boundary in far north Fl which dissipates by morning. High pressure along the eastern seabord will build in over the next few days with prevailing northeasterly winds.
151 AM EDT Wed Aug 24 2016 High pressure moving offshore south of New England will allow for light south winds today with temperatures moderating into the mid to upper 80s for afternoon highs.
A broad, weak upper level trough was in place over the mountains and western states today while an upper level ridge extended from the upper Midwest into the Deep South. At the surface, a cold front extended south across the Dakotas into far northwest Nebraska and then westward across Wyoming. A low pressure trough extended south from the front across western portions of Nebraska and Kansas. On Wednesday, the cold front slides farther south across western Kansas. Temperatures on Wednesday will be a little cooler than today across southwest and the area given increasing cloud cover and the location of the front.
80+ inches will continue to spread north-northeast into the area today and tonight as an upper trough lifts out through the central Rockies. But with the high precipitable water and parallel flow aloft to surface features, we also retain a risk for locally heavy rain amounts later today and tonight. at least several degrees cooler central and western zones, but only slightly less east. Our choices look to be a strong high pressure building over the west and eventually enveloping our area mid-week. or a weaker ridge over the west but a strong tropical system moving onto the central Gulf of Mexico shoreline. We would be on the subsidence side of the second choice, so again, warmer and drier.
Additional thunderstorms will develop this afternoon along and north of I-70 in advance of of cold front. Britt The cold front will continue moving slowly south Thursday and Thursday night. The focus for convection will likely shift westward into Kansas during the late evening where the low level jet will be strongest.
Storms struggled to get going locally during the day, but with the setting sun the low level jet ahead of the frontal boundary finally found enough focus to generate some storms in central Kansas and southeastern Nebraska.
A cold front extending southward through western MN was advancing eastward with time. The main focus of the short term is the passing cold front which will move through the Twin Cities late morning and clear Eau Claire late this afternoon. Some very pleasant weather conditions will cover the forecast area on Thursday as high pressure builds in. Rural areas will likely see low temperatures dip into the middle and upper 40s Thursday night as the high passes by.
259 AM MDT WED AUG 24 2016 Satellite showing plenty of mid and high clouds across the CWA on the northern part of an elongated upper low over Colorado. Cooler conditions will be over the CWA over the next few days as an upper low over far southern Canada moves east slowly and a couple pushes of cooler air sink south down the high plains into the northern and central Great Plains.
439 AM CDT WED AUG 24 2016 Upper trough over the central Rockies and Four Corners region will track slowly east today and tonight towards the Panhandles. A cold front over southwest Kansas and southeastern Colorado will push slowly south and east today into the Oklahoma Panhandle and then into the Texas Panhandle by late tonight or early Thursday.
Closed low continues to slowly move east across southern Canadian prairies leaving western Great Lakes in southwest flow and favorable jet dynamics for good updrafts/lift. Cooler and drier air begins to shift in for tonight and push any remaining rain threats off to the southeast. Medium range guidance suggests closed low opens up and moves east along US and Canadian border for latter part of week.
Reinforcing shot of cooler air was sweeping through the forecast area early this morning. PoPs will be confined to the higher terrain and foothills. Freezing levels fall to around 9 thousand feet and there is a possibility of some showers over the highest elevations overnight. Will mainly confine precip chances to the higher terrain where models were keeping the best cape. Energy will rotate around the trough in place over the northern Rockies and swing into northeast Wyoming Thursday night.
135 AM EDT WED AUG 24 2016 As high pressure works off to the east tonight into tomorrow, low level moisture will be on the increase.
149 AM EDT WED AUG 24 2016 High pressure over the region will gradually slide offshore from Wednesday afternoon through Thursday.
Upper air analysis last evening showed southwesterly flow over Texas with a ridge to the east and a trough to the west. At the surface, high pressure over the Gulf was keeping winds from the southeast. In the short term the upper level ridge over the southeast will build back toward the west and force the western trough into the middle of the country. The low level flow will remain from the south to southeast and this may bring sufficient moisture to our eastern counties to produce isolated showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon today and tomorrow.
Ongoing convection along a low-lvl theta-e ridge axis will continue off and on throughout the night. As such we have edged PoPs up slightly, still mostly in the high end chance category. A slightly better chance for rain Wed as a mid level trough will be closer. Depending on what happens today/tonight a heightened potential for flood/flash flood may exist Wed? Thur the mid level ridging will build w some and a pocket of drier low level appears across parts of the PB.
257 AM EDT WED AUG 24 2016 High pressure will gradually sink to the south of New England today allowing for warmer than normal temperatures on a southwesterly wind.
1103 PM PDT Tue Aug 23 2016 The passage of a weak cold front will cause our winds to become northerly Wednesday and Thursday.
145 AM EDT WED AUG 24 2016 Aviation A low pressure system will bring showers and a few thunderstorms Wednesday through Wednesday night into Thursday.
338 AM CDT WED AUG 24 2016 Cold front continuing to push east, departing the FA early this morning. In the wake of the front west winds have developed and will increase as the upper low pressure system slowly tracks east across southern Manitoba. Cooler temps today with highs in the 70s. Thursday will continue to see the influence of the upper low especially across NW MN with shower activity chances continuing, as a cool and cloudy day is expected.
114 AM EDT WED AUG 24 2016 High pressure centered over Pennsylvania will move to the eastern seaboard overnight where it will linger into Thursday. Moisture will move back into the region on Wednesday as the south flow increases ahead of a cold front.
This ridge remains across the area through Thursday but weakens some. An upper ridge over the southern states centered about southern MS is forecast to drift over the TN valley and southern Appalachians through Thursday. With the upper ridge established over the TN valley and southern Appalachians for Thursday.
High pressure continues over the area. The forecast area will remain on the northwest side of an upper level ridge centered over the sern US, resulting in a swly flow aloft. The combination of the ridge and the moist airmass will make for very hot and muggy conditions across the area again.
Slightly warmer temperatures are forecast for Wednesday as high pressure builds off of the California coast. Modest cooling is then expected late in the week and into the upcoming weekend as a weak upper level trough develops over California.
High pressure will extend across the region through the week. The high will gradually shift eastward with time.
513 AM EDT WED AUG 24 2016 High pressure will remain to the south through Thursday.
615 AM EDT WED AUG 24 2016 Shower and thunderstorm chances will increase through Thursday ahead of a slow moving cold front. Challenging forecast with respect to shower/storm chances across the region until cold front and upper level features depart Thursday evening. cold front will approach the region with at least scattered showers and storms. Severe threat for today and tomorrow on the lower end but still something to watch.