Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Models show a broken line of showers moving thru early this morning to late morning, with lingering activity for the lower Acadiana terminals. /issued 528 PM CST Wed Jan 5 2022/ 00Z 06JAN2022 TAFs VFR conditions to come to a temporary end tonight thru tomorrow morning as a weak cold front makes its way across the area.
(Today and tonight) The much advertised strong cold front will advance south across our area this morning, entering the Big Country during the predawn hours and exiting our southern counties shortly after 10 AM.
Now, much cooler temperatures were found across the area. Upstream, to the northwest, a 1031 hPa high pressure was moving towards the area for today and tonight. This high pressure and cold air will drive the short term period. Discussion: Synoptic setup is for high pressure to move into the area today. As this moves closer to our area, adiabatic compression and some mixing with surrounding environment will lead to warming to keep our lows tonight only in the lower to mid below zero teens.
High pressure should sink southward later this afternoon.
240 AM CST Thu Jan 6 2022 Cold air was dumping south through the Texas Panhandle early this morning as a vigorous cold front was sweeping into the Texas South Plains and Rolling Plains. Temperatures will struggle to climb back to freezing from the northern South Plains and Rolling Plains into the Panhandle during the afternoon.
Dangerous wind chills expected at times through Thursday morning, chances for snow and blowing snow arrive on Thursday and Evening Update (900pm MST): Skies had few clouds than forecast but warm front will eventually increase clouds by Thursday morning (models oftentimes overdo clouds in an arctic airmass).
923 PM MST Wed Jan 5 2022 Water vapor shows upper trof building into the Great Lakes region, with strong northwest jet extending from the Pac NW through southern portions of the Northern Plains. Warm front attempts to lift into parts of northeast WY and the Black Hills by afternoon, resulting in just a bit of overrunning light snow or flurries.
232 AM EST Thu Jan 6 2022 Mostly sunny skies today will give way to increasing clouds with a weak cold front and scattered showers crossing the region tonight.
Given the snowpack for SSW Nebraska, mostly cloudy conditions blocking radiation to the sfc, and continued CAA until the noon hour or so, only expecting highs to be able to get to the upper single digits, or low double digits today. At upper levels, ridging is working to push out this UL troughing. Along with the ridge is a decent jet streak peaking around 180kts. This area of high pressure may not work in in earnest until the early afternoon.
Model soundings continue to point toward freezing rain across extreme N MS. Sleet tends to deteriorate roadways and bridges quickly so even if amounts are lower the impacts can be quite high. A cold front is currently making its way toward Mississippi with colder air following. At the surface a low pressure is expected to form over southern Mississippi and push northeast along a front through Alabama/Georgia.
905 PM PST Wed Jan 5 2022 High pressure aloft and weak offshore flow will bring a warmer day Thursday.
1043 PM CST Wed Jan 5 2022 (This evening through Thursday) The base of a longwave mid-level trough will continue to traverse the southern Plains tonight. An attendant cold front will push through later this evening, bringing in cold air across the area.
Cold front currently pushing through the Panhandle looks to arrive an hour or two earlier than previous guidance.
A broad Arctic high is centered over eastern Montana, with steady northwest flow aloft as a trough base is centered to our east over the Great Lakes region. Winds will decrease further through the day as the high becomes more centered overhead.
422 AM EST Thu Jan 6 2022 Low pressure will track quickly northeast across the Tennessee Valley today with accumulating snow affecting southern portions of the Ohio Valley.
Current temps and dewpoints somewhat unfavorable for much freezing rain but could see some sleet. Model soundings also show insufficient warm melting layer and subfreezing, shallow cold layer for any freezing rain p-types. Blairsville and Ellijay are about the only station we have access to that indicates subfreezing temps (28F and 30F as of 3 AM EST) but even there, dewpoint depressions are zero so little diabatic cooling expected.
Surface analysis depicts weak high pressure over the Florida peninsula, while zonal flow prevails aloft over the Southeastern states and Florida within a broad trough over the eastern CONUS, with the subtropical ridge suppressed well to our south and east over the Caribbean Sea and the Greater Antilles.
Given the snowpack for SSW Nebraska, mostly cloudy conditions blocking radiation to the sfc, and continued CAA until the noon hour or so, only expecting highs to be able to get to the upper single digits, or low double digits today. At upper levels, ridging is working to push out this UL troughing. Along with the ridge is a decent jet streak peaking around 180kts. This area of high pressure may not work in in earnest until the early afternoon. With the snowfall from yesterday/overnight, the areas with heavy snowpack will likely see cooler highs as snow is very reflective. As such, seeing the greatest highs for NW Nebraska (in the lower 40s), and cooler highs for areas such as North Platte (around freezing).
Still may have enough low-level moisture move in behind the front and some attempts to saturate the lower levels with precipitation falling into it, but it will take quite a bit to saturate the low levels enough for anything more than just flurries at this point.
High pressure should sink southward later this afternoon. The two airmasses of cold to the east and downslope warmer air to the west will continue to wage war against each other Friday. The pressure gradient will tighten through the day in response to High Plains lee troughing. Despite these winds, we are not looking at any fire weather concerns due to the cooler highs and resultant higher afternoon relative humidity.
The satellite loop shows the upper level trough digging in over the OK/TX Red River valley now as the cold front is easing down toward I-20 now. So kinda dreary as the clouds will be content over the shallow cold air until it deepens and clears with the upper trough.
Detailed discussion: The upper trough axis and associated vort max with this mornings light snow is pivoting over western KS this morning as northwest flow aloft streams mid level moisture from the western Canada coastline into the Central Plains. Through sunrise, could see smaller mesoscale snow bands pop up, but overall the trend will be to see the light snow dissipate from north to south as the upper trough axis slides into southern MO.
507 AM MST Thu Jan 6 2022 As the trough continues to push eastward, a cold shallow arctic air remains especially for the plains and urban corridor. Hi-Res guidance suggests the cold air mass sticks around through this evening thus expect afternoon highs near the lower 20s to lower 30s. Impacts such as large snow drifts and low visibilities due to blowing snow are likely in the high country. Moisture increases Friday night ahead of a weak trough and should bring light snow to the mountains late Friday night.
412 AM MST Thu Jan 6 2022 As the trough continues to push eastward, a cold shallow arctic air remains especially for the plains and urban corridor. Hi-Res guidance suggests the cold air mass sticks around through this evening thus expect afternoon highs near the lower 20s to lower 30s. Impacts such as large snow drifts and low visibilities due to blowing snow are likely in the high country. Moisture increases Friday night ahead of a weak trough and should bring light snow to the mountains late Friday night.
The upper air pattern shows a broad trough that encompasses a large part of the country.
Regardless, have generally opted for keeping temperatures on the lower end of guidance. Brief transitional ridging will be in place for Friday. Additionally, with 700mb temperatures ranging from -4C to +2C and a gusty southwest wind, warmer highs will be seen across much of the area. However, with the current snow cover there is again uncertainty with temperatures east of the Divide, and we have again opted on the lower side of guidance for Friday.
A stronger low pressure system will then move across the Northeast Pacific tonight into Friday morning and aid in gusty south winds and a greater chance for widespread moderate rainfall. Gusty winds and moderate to locally heavy rain will accompany the approaching trough tonight. Snow levels will start off around 5,000 feet as the trough nears and then fall throughout tonight and much of tomorrow. Impacts should be confined to the higher elevations of Trinity County and some snow is expected at Scott Mountain Summit on Highway 3.
A warming trend continues across our region under the influence of a ridge which holds through early Friday.
239 AM MST Thu Jan 6 2022 High pressure entrenched over the southwestern United States will continue to influence our local weather conditions through at Friday with mostly clear skies as well as moderating temperatures.
Satellite imagery shows that skies have mostly cleared out except for the extensive fog and low clouds across much of the lower elevations, a result of a stronger low-level inversion over the area.
As the trough continues to push eastward, a cold shallow arctic air remains especially for the plains and urban corridor. Hi-Res guidance suggests the cold air mass sticks around through this evening thus expect afternoon highs near the lower 20s to lower 30s. Impacts such as large snow drifts and low visibilities due to blowing snow are likely in the high country. Moisture increases Friday night ahead of a weak trough and should bring light snow to the mountains late Friday night.
Heavier snowfall fell overnight in the Pocatello area than expected and temperatures are expected to warm to above freezing shortly after sunrise so not expecting much more than the 2 to 3 inches that have fallen. The next Pacific system and cold front will approach with more snow in the central mountains by Friday morning with precipitation overspreading all of eastern Idaho by Friday afternoon. Snow levels will be up around 5 thousand feet so the Snake River Plain may see some rain with snow levels dropping to valley floors behind the cold front Friday night. Temperatures will be above normal today and Friday ahead of the cold frontal passage late Friday with many low elevations near 40 degrees.
I kept some flurries in for the early daytime period for our southeast and drying up rather quickly behind the upper trough axis.
Warmer today and Friday with the warmest high temperatures in this 7 day forecast package being on Friday.
Will be much warmer on Friday as warm front lifts through the area.
An upper trof will move from the Canadian and northern U.
406 AM PST Thu Jan 6 2022 High pressure aloft and very weak offshore flow will bring more warming today.
631 AM EST Thu Jan 6 2022 Low pressure will track quickly northeast across the Tennessee Valley today with accumulating snow affecting southern portions of the Ohio Valley.
Conditions are forecast to improve to predominantly VFR during the afternoon as the warm front lifts into the northern half of Washington, though LLWS will be a concern through the period.
High pressure entrenched over the southwestern United States will continue to influence our local weather conditions through at Friday with mostly clear skies as well as moderating temperatures.
510 AM EST Thu Jan 6 2022 Widespread snow is likely tonight into Friday morning with passing low pressure. Enhanced lift in low-mid lvl frontogenesis is expected to result in increased snowfall rates across portions of nrn WV to the ridges of Fayette County PA. The snow should end Friday night under building high pressure.
Latest surface analysis indicated 1035 mb Arctic high pressure over the northern Plains, and a 1010 mb low over northeast TX. Northwest winds to remain brisk at 15-25 mph on the east flank of the Arctic ridge. Tonight, the ridge gradually eases into the area, lightening winds late. The ridge axis shifts overhead, leading to a brief break from the windy conditions.
IFR/LIFR will be possible this morning due to fog and low-level clouds as a cold front moves through the area. Winds will shift from southerly to northerly as the cold front moves through.
IFR/LIFR will be possible this morning (primarily for the southern terminals) due to fog as a cold front moves through the area. Winds will shift from southerly to northerly as the cold front moves through.
704 AM EST Thu Jan 6 2022 Widespread snow is forecast tonight into Friday morning with passing low pressure.
Low pressure will develop over the Southeastern United States today and move quickly northeast into the Mid-Atlantic States Tonight as a mid to upper-level short wave moves eastward from the Mid-Atlantic States. An associated cold front to move southward down the Florida Peninsula through tonight and dissipate over South Florida on Friday.
648 AM EST Thu Jan 6 2022 Mostly sunny skies today will give way to increasing clouds this evening with a weak cold front and scattered showers crossing the region tonight.
Forecast soundings from all the latest available models and CAMs continue to show that profiles for areas roughly along and north of the I-40 corridor will remain well below freezing throughout the troposphere, with all snow anticipated for this event. Dry air in the low levels initially will require saturation for precipitation to reach the surface this morning, but guidance indicates this will happen fairly quickly due to the intensity of the large scale lift. Once saturation occurs, snow could fall fairly heavily at times and allow for rapid accumulation due to surface temperatures being near or below freezing. This will include both freezing rain and sleet, and some light ice accumulations up to one tenth of an inch are possible.
As it does, return flow around the High will start shifting our winds to the southeast. At the same time a Pacific system moves into the northern Rockies and this will start shifting our stationary Arctic front back eastward as a warm front. A chance of some light snow remains in the area on Friday with temperatures steadily warming during the day as the warm front approaches. For now going a bit lower on the high temps, although even this will bring us back up to and slightly above our seasonal norms (mid 20s for Glasgow).
927 AM EST Thu Jan 6 2022 Low pressure will track quickly northeast across the Tennessee Valley today with accumulating snow affecting southern portions of the Ohio Valley.
525 AM CST Thu Jan 6 2022 (12Z TAFS) A cold front is moving into the Permian Basin and will shortly arrive at MAF/HOB. Hennig (Today through Friday afternoon) It is a bit of deja-vu this morning with a cold front moving into West Texas and eastern New Mexico. The big difference from last night is the airmass behind the front is of Arctic origin and so temperatures are already dropping into the low teens in the Texas Panhandle.
Northerly winds will be gusty at times today behind the passing cold front with gusts up to 20 kts possible and sustained winds around 10-15 kts. The satellite loop shows the upper level trough digging in over the OK/TX Red River valley now as the cold front is easing down toward I-20 now. So kinda dreary as the clouds will be content over the shallow cold air until it deepens and clears with the upper trough.
530 AM CST Thu Jan 6 2022 (Today and tonight) The much advertised strong cold front will advance south across our area this morning, entering the Big Country during the predawn hours and exiting our southern counties shortly before 10 AM.
533 AM CST Thu Jan 6 2022 Cold front has pushed south of all airports and winds will remain mostly in the 15-20 knot range into the afternoon. /issued 240 AM CST Thu Jan 6 2022/ Cold air was dumping south through the Texas Panhandle early this morning as a vigorous cold front was sweeping into the Texas South Plains and Rolling Plains. Temperatures will struggle to climb back to freezing from the northern South Plains and Rolling Plains into the Panhandle during the afternoon. This will boost temperatures on the Caprock into the 60's to near 70 degrees while locations farther east will remain on the cooler side in the 50's.
330 PM EST Thu Jan 6 2022 A cold front positioned near the I-69 corridor will sag south through the remainder of the area late today into this evening. Convergence along this boundary is enhanced by the lake aggregate trough present over the Great Lakes and this should allow for a temporary flare up of lake effect snow showers during the late afternoon and early evening as this front releases south.
1026 AM EST Thu Jan 6 2022 Mostly sunny skies today will give way to increasing clouds this evening with a weak cold front and scattered showers crossing the region tonight.
253 PM CST Thu Jan 6 2022 Tonight through Friday: Strong cold advection will be the primary concern in the near term forecast with the freezing line currently approaching the Highway 82 corridor, and the drizzle is ending just in time in that area. Sunny skies Friday and diminishing wind should help make things a little more comfortable, but it will remain quite chilly with temperatures struggling to reach the lower to mid 40s north and the lower 50s far south. This will allow warmer southerlies to begin transporting in moisture from the Gulf of Mexico. Further south and west, temperatures will be near freezing along I- 20 and mid and upper 30s further south.
950 AM PST Thu Jan 6 2022 High pressure aloft and very weak offshore flow will bring further warming today.
252 PM EST Thu Jan 6 2022 Widespread snow is forecast tonight into Friday morning with passing low pressure, with heaviest snow southeast of Pittsburgh in the WV ridges. Accumulation is likely to be near or exceed 6 inches in the WV and PA Ridges, with gradually lesser amounts to the West.
Meanwhile, longwave trough is moving across the eastern two-thirds of the U.
Overnight, an upper level ridge moves over the central CONUS which turns winds out of the south encouraging slightly warmer temperatures as the weekend approaches.
155 PM MST Thu Jan 6 2022 Jet axis will continue to shift east of the forecast area this evening as broad ridging develops over the Western CONUS. Remnants of an AR event (currently impacting WA) rolling along the ridgetop will continue to feed these showers with ample amounts of moisture. The eastward progression of the ridge will eventually push the jet axis, as well as the moisture plume, away from the region by Friday morning. The broad ridge axis is expected to traverse across the Divide by noon, leaving the Western Slope under southwesterly flow by mid afternoon. By Friday night, the next Pacific Northwest trough will have moved inland and its upstream jet will slide over the CWA.
During the night tonight, winds will be rather light as the arctic high pressure system slowly moves to the northeast of the region. A decent ridge will begin to build into the region allowing the pressure gradient to tighten up. By Friday night, the WAA will continue and keep overnight lows much warmer than tonight but will still be a little below normal.
A developing low pressure system will track along to our south, which places Middle Tennessee in a prime region for snow development.
Overnight lows in the low to upper 60s across the region tonight. A low pressure system will be trekking across the Northern Plains and Southeastern CONUS as a cold front moves across the Gulf of Mexico.
Snow will begin to taper off this evening from the northwest to the east-southeast as the upper level trough swings through the Ohio Valley. Strong Canadian high pressure currently over the Northern Plains will drop southeast overnight and settle in over the Ohio Valley by tomorrow afternoon. While it will be dry with sunshine, afternoon temperatures will only reach the low/mid 20s.
The low clouds are gradually eroding, so most locations in the San Joaquin Valley will likely clear by mid- afternoon. Although, tonight's forecast may be a tricky, as we are expecting an upper- level trough to approach the region by Friday morning. 01 inch of precipitation or slightly higher, along with less than an inch of snow in the higher elevations, on Friday and Friday evening. This trough is expected to increase winds a bit towards the Kern County mountains and desert by Friday evening, and gusts could locally reach advisory criteria at times.
Patchy drizzle (mainly south of highway 72) and freezing drizzle (north of highway 72) will also be possible. Strong subsidence and low level dry advection will clear the low clouds from west to east late tonight. Overnight lows will dip into the lower teens in southern TN with middle to upper teens in north AL.
Mid-level ridging and associated height rises will overspread the southern Plains tomorrow. Attendant lee troughing throughout the day will help southerly surface winds increase through the day tomorrow. With mostly sunny skies, highs tomorrow will get to the low 40s across the area, with the potential for low 50s across western north Texas.
/NEW/ /This afternoon through Friday/ Strong cold advection behind this morning's arctic front will keep the brisk conditions across the region with observed temperatures currently in the low 30s to upper 40s. Highs will struggle to get out of the 30s and 40s for many areas, except for a few locations across the far southeast where highs will peak in the low 50s. Surface winds will slowly veer to the east/southeast on Friday as the high pressure moves to our east. Slightly warmer temperatures along with a few passing high clouds are in the forecast for tomorrow.
High pressure will build into the area later today and tonight, bringing a gradual end to precipitation across northern Utah.
Under the influence of broad ridging building in and southerly return flow, Friday's highs will peak from 5 to 20 degrees warmer than Thursday's.
Temperatures reach above zero for the region, with some areas towards the Devils Lake Basin hitting the low teens.
113 PM EST Thu Jan 6 2022 Low pressure will track quickly northeast across the Tennessee Valley today with accumulating snow affecting southern portions of the Ohio Valley.
224 PM CST Thu Jan 6 2022 Arctic high pressure was dominating the northern Plains this afternoon. As the high continues to slide southeast, the coldest temperatures and wind chills will also slide to the eastern portions of the forecast area. The north central and northeast will see the lowest wind chills, generally in the 50 to 55 below range. A stiff southerly wind develops on Friday ahead of an approaching Clipper and cold front, bringing with it strong warm air advection and pressure falls. This will lead to some light snow chances across the north and much warmer temperatures for all of western and central North Dakota. Highs will range from the lower teens above zero east to the lower 30s west. However, breezy to windy conditions may make it feel quite a bit cooler.
(This evening through Friday) The cold front has moved through the entire area this afternoon, bringing gusty north winds, and much colder temperatures.
The cold front has cleared all but the southwest CWA mid afternoon. Low temperatures Friday morning are forecast to be in the low to mid 20s through the Hill Country and upper 20s to low 30s elsewhere. The low level warm air advection pattern is forecast to strengthen Friday night. Some deeper convection in the form of isolated to scattered showers is possible across central and eastern areas of the CWA overnight, rooted just above the very shallow, cool boundary layer to the north a warm front.