Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Cooler than normal Today with a possible light freeze inland. Cold High Pressure will build just west of the region today with Mostly Sunny skies and a few brief periods of high clouds at times. Even with the lower dewpoints in the mid/upper 20s, some very light and/or patchy frost may be possible as well due to some soil moisture from recent cold frontal precip.
Low pressure over the Great Lake and eastern Canada will dominate Indiana weather into Friday, when high pressure should take over. A weak cold front is forecast to pass Saturday.
To the west, from southern Manitoba southward through the eastern Plains, a low amplitude ridge is in place. Sfc-850mb ridge translates from the eastern Plains through the Midwest resulting in lighter winds during the day and dry conditions. The previously mentioned low-level ridge will move east of the area by the late afternoon at which time southerly sfc winds are forecast to increase to 10-20 mph. The rest of the forecast period will be marked by a passing ridge of high pressure that will weaken surface winds Friday morning, which will then increase again and back to southerly by evening.
High pressure will continue to build into the CWA keeping a tight pressure gradient over the region today. With temps above freezing by Saturday afternoon.
127 AM EST Fri Dec 30 2016 Cool, dry high pressure will build across the region Friday through Saturday morning.
The best chance for accumulating snow will generally be north of the Highway 200 corridor. The NAM is a bit slower than the GFS/ECMWF and the higher res models are more in line with the quicker system bringing snowfall to Towner county by just after sunrise (the NAM is later in the morning). Saturday night lows will be much warmer than tonight, generally in the double digits above zero.
Friday is still shaping up to be the warmest/nicest day of the week as an upper trough to the east lifts out and warm air spreads east of the Rockies in a zonal flow regime. A clipper system translates from Canada into the Upper Midwest region Friday night sending a cold frontal boundary south across the plains.
301 AM CST Fri Dec 30 2016 Surface ridging moves eastward today with a southerly flow returning to the area. This will bring about warmer temperatures in spite of increasing high clouds, with highs running mid 30s along the Highway 14 corridor into the Iowa Great Lakes area, to the mid 40s through the Missouri River Valley. A cold front swings across the area tonight.
322 AM EST Fri Dec 30 2016 Low pressure will move northeastward and away from the region today. High pressure will quickly build over the region by early Saturday, followed by a weak area of low pressure passing by Saturday night.
For tonight, the mid-level trough/cyclonic flow shifts east into the Great Lakes region taking the bulk of the snow showers with it. Warm air advection/isentropic upglide ahead of low pressure moving out of the central Canadian Prairie region will generate increasing/thickening mid-cloud through Friday. Could also see a slight chance for some light freezing drizzle with loss of cloud ice after midnight. Look for highs Friday in the 20-30 degree range, remaining nearly steady Friday night in warm air advection as low pressure passes to the north.
An upper level trough will move into the southwest U. However, as an upper level trough moves into the southwest U. The next cold front should come through on Saturday and knock temps back down to seasonal norms. The end of the weekend will see a return of southerly flow and warmer temps which will continue into the beginning of the work week.
Over the southern sites, the high pressure ridge will linger enough to delay the development of the southeasterly winds until the late afternoon or early evening. A cloudy and cool day is expected Friday as high pressure drifts east of the region. Rain chances still look high on Saturday as a warm front pushes north and PW values increase to 1.
238 AM CST Fri Dec 30 2016 High pressure will continue to shift east from the southern Plains into the southeast U.
Latest analysis this morning showed an upper level trough across the mid-Atlantic and Northeast with cyclonic flow over the Great Lakes and lower Ohio Valley. Thermal profiles suggest this precipitation should remain all-liquid, though wet bulb temperatures at the onset are near freezing, and dynamic cooling could bring a few wet snowflakes down before the airmass saturates and warms above freezing, mainly across southern Indiana and the Kentucky Bluegrass region. Plan on a cool, cloudy day with highs in the low/mid 40s.
Warmer air will spread east off the high plains with a bit of a downslope wind component. Will see a cold front move through that will turn the wind to the northwest and make for a cooler day on Saturday. Aloft: A ridge has built into AK over the past 24 hrs and an upr-lvl high will move into the Gulf of AK today. the 12Z EC ensemble mean indicates this high could remain in place thru Jan 10th. Basically a broad trof forms over the CONUS. Sun the arctic cold front will drop S out of Can into the Nrn Plains and lee cyclogenesis will begin over Ern CO. with a warm front lifting N to the OK/KS border. as the 3rd trof moves thru and the associated CO low ejects across KS. The problem is mstr is confined to the low-lvls.
At the surface, lee troughing is in place with riding situated down across the Arklatex region. Lee troughing will continue to increase today as the impulse over the Pacific NW quickly dives southeast. This will push a weak cold front through, knocking highs back into the 40s for Sat and Sun. At the same time, a more robust upper trough will slowly track across the Northern Intermountain into the Pacific NW. Light and variable winds will become breezy from the southwest across the area on Friday as high pressure translates eastward away from the area. These low RH values will combine with strong sw winds to elevate the grassland fire danger into the very high category, with the highest values across the Flint Hills into south central KS.
A lee trough will bring gusty south winds by midday Friday at KABI and KSJT. /issued 331 PM CST Thu Dec 29 2016/ (Tonight and Friday) Much cooler day across West Central Texas this afternoon, with temperatures mainly in the mid 50s. Northeast Big Country northeast of Abilene will see the driest air mass and may be able to fall a couple more degrees to near freezing.
East of the high across the area the pressure gradient has tightening resulting in breezy and gusty northwesterly winds. The high pressure will then slide to the south and southeast of the area on Friday. Behind the high the pressure gradient will tighten again across the area producing gusty southerly winds.
A tightening pressure gradient between developing low pressure across Nebraska and the arctic high across Alberta and Saskatchewan will lead to increasing winds overnight across western and central North Dakota.
Temperatures will be warmer tonight, with lows generally in the low to mid 30s inland and upper 30s near the coast.
218 PM EST Mon Jan 9 2017 Evidence of some weak mid level ridging building into the SE this afternoon after analyzing latest water vapor loop. Ridge is rather dirty. with a good amount of mid and high level cloud cover spilling overtop ridge axis and down toward the CWA. Meanwhile sfc analysis revealed a continued wedge down the Appalachians as 1040mb high pressure remains centered across NC/VA. keeping us entrenched in a cooler airmass. All of us should finally see highs above freezing with 40s expected across mountainous terrain and lower 60s expected central Ga.
The cold front associated with the most recent Pacific storm system is currently moving east across the Interior Northwest. Light snow and freezing rain has been accompanying this front.
Temperatures will drop to near or a little below freezing tonight but the airmass aloft is still on the warm side snow levels are expected to be elevated around 4500 to 4900 feet Tuesday afternoon and evening, especially for areas south of Atomic City.
18z due to fog mainly from warm moist air shifting northward over the cooler near shore waters. High pressure will continue to move east as a zonal upper level flow develops over the area. The moderation trend gets underway today as high temps will climb into the low and mid 50s.
Time/height x- sections and bufkit soundings favor mostly snow as the pcpn type, although some threat for freezing pcpn across the far south. Thus, freezing pcpn the higher threat. In between (around I-90) it looks more like a mixed bag, with partial to complete melting of any hydrometeors possible, bringing sleet/freezing pcpn into question. This trough will work on that west-east running boundary, and also help with lift along its associated cold front (which it pushes into western WI by 18z Tue). For now, will keep idea of a freezing rain/snow/rain mix at both TAF airfields beginning at 10.
455 PM EST Mon Jan 9 2017 Arctic High pressure will keep cold and dry air over the region through early Tuesday then begin retreating eastward. Surface and upper ridge off the Carolina coast with trough moving from the Midwest toward the Great Lakes region. Models do indicate a weak coastal trough Tuesday with moderately strong but shallow isentropic lift across the east Midlands during Tuesday afternoon and early evening. Deeper moisture remaining across the Tennessee and Ohio Valley regions near developing warm front.
319 PM CST Mon Jan 9 2017 18Z surface data has high pressure over the southeast U. A warm front was developing across the Plains into Missouri. Dew points in the 20s and higher ran from the lower Missouri Valley to the Gulf Coast. North of highway 30 patchy light snow and freezing drizzle will develop creating slick spots on roads. Some patchy light snow and freezing drizzle will continue north of highway 30 but will change over to all rain/drizzle with patchy fog well before sunrise Tuesday. At the same time, temperatures will start falling as the cold front moves through the area. It appears that the rain and drizzle will end Tuesday afternoon before temperatures drop to freezing.
Temperatures are expected to remain well above freezing tonight, so there are no concerns for freezing drizzle.
a second system replaces outgoing trough w/ high pressure pushing south from the northern Rockies/Plains. Thinning cloud cover for a brief period tonight will allow temps to drop back from current levels into the lower to mid 30s.
The highest chances for rain and associated rainfall totals this week will mostly be across the northwest half of the forecast area. A strong ridge of high pressure is currently located along the mid Atlantic states.
A strong ridge of high pressure is currently located along the mid Atlantic states.
Aloft, the longwave trough that has been over the eastern US is progressing eastward with ridging moving into its place. Tonight/Tuesday: As the center of the high shifts eastward, winds will continue to slowly veer to a more easterly direction.
Winds this afternoon will be southerly between 5-10 mph, but will increase from the south in most locations, especially across the Delta region, overnight into Tuesday morning as the surface pressure gradient tightens across the Lower Mississippi River Valley. /19/ High pressure shifting east of the region will result in an increase in southerly flow across the forecast area today, as ridging aloft also increases. This will result in increasing moisture, clouds, and warmer conditions across the forecast area through this afternoon.
1224 PM EST Mon Jan 9 2017 Arctic High pressure will keep cold and dry air over the region through early Tuesday then begin retreating eastward. Afternoon high temperatures are still forecast a few degrees warmer than the past couple of days, due to the Arctic airmass beginning to slowly modify. Surface and upper ridge off the Carolina coast with trough moving from the Midwest toward the Great Lakes region. Models do indicate a weak coastal trough Tuesday with moderately strong but shallow isentropic lift across the east Midlands during Tuesday afternoon and early evening. Deeper moisture remaining across the Tennessee and Ohio Valley regions near developing warm front.
The Lower Treasure Valley west of Caldwell stayed below freezing and had freezing rain. Cold front will bring valley rain and mountain snow showers later today and tonight.
High pressure shifting east of the region will result in an increase in southerly flow across the forecast area today, as ridging aloft also increases. This will result in increasing moisture, clouds, and warmer conditions across the forecast area through this afternoon.
A cold front currently to the northwest of the state will work into northwest Utah this afternoon, then continue south into central Utah overnight. Precipitation is expected to changeover to snow with the passage of a cold front between 00Z and 02Z.
A quiet weather pattern is in store through the short term portion of the forecast period with westerly flow in the mid and upper levels and southerly flow in the low-levels.
I'm going to throw away the high-resolution forecasts and go with my gut feeling here and have all airports beginning at VFR through 14z, then bring in MVFR cigs above 2000 feet through much of the morning hours with modified Gulf moisture streaming northward. We'll repeat the process with more confidence for lower cigs in the low MVFR/high IFR category by midnight and after, as the increasing moisture within the boundary layer cools toward early Tuesday morning.
As the high moves to the east, upper pattern does begin to flatten out somewhat but remains progressive in nature. Upper low will be moving towards the Pacific northwest coast during the day with a piece of upper level energy rotating on shore. The trailing cold front located from the parent low through the central plains and into the Texas panhandle.
/ISSUED 1022 AM CST Mon Jan 9 2017/ Much warmer temperatures were southeast of the area over the Gulf of Mexico.
The upper flow pattern continues to consist of the broad low around Hudson Bay and the large trough off the Northwest coast. Northeast Montana remains on the cold side of the Arctic boundary while the Pacific trough ejects abundant moisture inland towards Montana. Between the two lows there will be a weak ridge in place over the local region today. The ridge quickly moves across the area to bring us a break before the second wave moves through. Late this afternoon and tonight the western trough begins it movement inland, backing upper flow around to the southwest. The trough disturbance again spreads moisture across the Montana plains. Tuesday the western trough gets absorbed into a trough extension from the Hudson Bay low. This extension driving south will send an Arctic Cold front south into Montana late Tuesday and Tuesday night.
Precipitation will start as snow at the onset before mixing with and changing to freezing rain and possibly sleet.
352 PM EST Mon Jan 9 2017 High pressure will shift offshore of the Outer Banks tonight, but extend across the region through the weekend. Inland high pressure to the north will weaken and shift off to the northeast while a coastal trough off the FL/GA coast shifts northwest toward the SC coast. Lows will depend on the amount of cloud cover and given the uncertainty we took a blend of MOS guidance which indicates mid to upper 20s north and west toward the Pee Dee/Midlands/CSRA ranging to the lower 40s around the GA coast.
Reports with this band have been as expected with around a half inch on the low end and pushing 1. 5 to 2 inches on the high end. In addition, have just recently started receiving some freezing drizzle/mist reports along Highway 2 on the North Dakota side and the Grand Forks/Fargo metros (and areas in between). Roads around the area don't sound like they are being impacted much but will monitor for any concerns besides some slight visibility restrictions and freezing on windshields.
Strong cold front passes through the region Thurs with early day high temps likely for a good portion of the forecast area as a faster frontal timing continues to be favored. Given the typical model biases regarding temp trends this forecast favored the EC and Canadian temp solutions for late week through the weekend w/ doubt cast on the much warmer GFS and its ensembles.
Much warmer weather will continue for the rest of the week. Temperatures will continue a slow warm up as low pressure moving toward the Great Lakes pushes a warm front toward the region late tonight. expect light snow to develop across the north toward daybreak, mixing with sleet and freezing rain as Tuesday progresses.
High pressure will weaken and slide east on Tuesday. Tuesday will likely be much like Louisiana and Arkansas today with the building of clouds ahead of an approaching cold front. The southern edge of the upper-level trough is expected to merely brush northern Alabama, and the associated cold front may get close enough for shower activity concentrated north of I-20 by tomorrow afternoon/tonight.
1054 AM CST Mon Jan 9 2017 Hourly grids for the overnight hours with the warm front passage. Elsewhere mid 40s will continue to increase as the warmer dew points continue to work back inland. The returning Southerly winds will continue to slowly increase in speed as the warm front lifts our way.
Despite the high clouds, downslope winds had resulted in temperatures warming into the lower 60s over far southwestern Kansas this afternoon, but most of southwest Kansas was stuck in the 40s. More sun will allow temperatures to warm well into the 50s Tuesday despite the cooler temperatures at 850mb.
257 PM EST Mon Jan 9 2017 The warmer air is finally starting to make some headway into the region with temperatures now above freezing across the area. Through the short term period a low pressure system will lift out of the Plains and through the upper Midwest into southeastern Canada. A cold front associated with this system will slowly sag through the region on Tuesday night. Though there could be a very brief window for some freezing rain/drizzle, temperatures will be on the increase after 06Z. Therefore any freezing precipitation should quickly transition to plain rain and no adverse impacts are expected. However, will likely issue an SPS highlighting the higher winds.
In addition, the anomalous upper ridge that has dominated western Alaska over the past week or two, and provided for very mild temperatures, will break down this week. A deep upper trough is forecast to form where the upper ridge was situated which means much colder temperatures for Alaska. Further to the south across the eastern Pacific, the persistent trough and anomalous very wet pattern for the west coast, and interior mountainous region will dry out as a large ridge begins to build. This ridge will again lead to a more westerly/southwesterly flow aloft over then northern United States, leading to much milder conditions for the Upper Midwest.
Thus warmer temperatures are on the way. Clouds will help keep temps up tonight so have shaded to the high side.
The lower ceilings should be confined primarily to East Texas by mid to late afternoon.
256 PM CST Mon Jan 9 2017 Models show a low pressure system centered over northeast Colorado/southwest Nebraska at 00z Tuesday. As the low continues to moves east, the tightening pressure gradient will give us increasing southerly winds.
Surface temperatures will start out in the lower to middle 30s early this evening, then will steadily rise into the upper 30s and lower 40s through the night. It appears temps will rise above freezing across the entire area before precip commences: however, with road surfaces remaining near or slightly below freezing, some scattered slick spots may form on secondary and untreated surfaces as precip first starts to occur. The Plains low will then track into the Great Lakes, dragging a weak cold front through central Illinois by Tuesday afternoon.
Later in the day, the low is expected to pass through Wisconsin.
Blended precip-water imagery showed the plume over currently over Southern California and lining-up well with the cold frontal passage through the district early this morning. Therefore, models do pick-up on the lowered precipitation accumulation with the next storm.
1250 PM EST Mon Jan 9 2017 High pressure will shift offshore of the Outer Banks tonight, but extend across the region through the weekend. Weak warm air advection and abundant sunshine most areas will help temperatures rise into the lower to mid 40s across SC, coolest toward the Pee Dee, and about 45-50 across GA. Tonight: Cloud cover will increase slowly overnight from off the Atlantic as a coastal trough matures off the coast in response to high pressure shifting farther off the North Carolina Outer Banks.
This high pressure will slowly but steadily push eastward into the western North Atlantic over the next several days. An extension of this high pressure will remain aligned across north Florida through the end of this week, then becomes reinforced from the north this coming weekend.
A stronger storm system will likely affect the region by the latter half of the week with showers and much cooler temperatures.
249 PM CST Mon Jan 9 2017 Tonight, A weak upper level trough will move across the central plains. The upper trough will move east into the MS river valley by late afternoon. Highs will reach the lower to mid 50s south of I-70, with mid 40s along the NE border. Main concern remains evolution of the upper trough that will bring the potential for significant and potentially damaging ice accumulations to the area this weekend. To set the stage the first of 2 cold fronts will sweep through the area Weds passing through mainly dry with shallow lift/meager moisture so will keep conds dry Weds/Thurs.
Still, there may be some portions of the CWA that sees a mix or even a brief period of freezing rain though this is a low probability outcome.
Southerly flow around the high will allow a warming trend to develop. temperatures may struggle to reach much above freezing. Chattanooga Airport, TN 42 28 50 47 / 0 0 10 60 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 37 25 49 43 / 0 0 10 60 Oak Ridge, TN 38 26 47 44 / 0 0 20 60 Tri Cities Airport, TN 32 18 46 39 / 0 0 10 60.
212 PM MST Mon Jan 9 2017 20z surface analysis had low over northeast WY with strong arctic boundary into south central MT and warm front into south central SD. Upper level flow remains cyclonic over the Northern Plains mid week as persistent upper low remains over central Canada.
Highs on Thu will range from near freezing across central KS to the lower 40s near the OK state line. A vigorous mid/upper trough is progged to dig across southern California at the beginning of the period before translating east- northeast over the southwest & Rockies before ejecting over the Plains late in the weekend. Area soundings continue to support mixed precipitation including freezing rain for most of the area.
In that situation, light drainage westerly drainage winds down the valley and snow pack would likely lead to cooler lows than surrounding areas. Guidance was too aggressive with temperatures today, which leads to lower confidence in the warmer MEX/MAV output for Tuesday that has much of the area into the upper 40s and low 50s.
406 PM EST Mon Jan 9 2017 Afternoon surface analysis shows the high pressure has progressed east along the North Carolina and Virginia borders. This should mitigate the temp splits tonight, but kept a slight split in the east given the lower afternoon dewpoints. Also a lee side low pressure system will deepen tonight and eject into the Central Plains. The attendant cold front will be our next weather maker. Also the higher elevation nearer the VA border could be susceptible to higher gusts. Overall this strong jet dynamics and approaching cold front will moisten the layer/increase lower and mid level omega and lead to increasing POPs late in the afternoon into Tuesday night. The cold front actually hangs up along the Ohio River and this boundary across the area is perhaps more of a outflow boundary.