Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Otherwise, we have added a low chance for some isolated afternoon showers and thunderstorms along the Highway 77 corridor, including Giddings, La Grange and Hallettsville. The low level jet has cranked up streamer showers again across South Central Texas into the Hill Country early this morning. The showers and perhaps a few isolated thunderstorms linger though mid morning, then gradually dissipate by midday as the low level jet weakens. A drier airmass rotating around the Subtropical Ridge overhead leads to no chances of showers and thunderstorms with heating. Although the low level jet cranks up streamer showers again overnight into Wednesday morning, coverage will be less due to the drier airmass.
1023 AM PDT Tue Oct 1 2019 A drier northerly flow will be over the Inland Northwest through Wednesday with sub freezing overnight lows and cool daytime temperatures.
As for pops, think the ridge (which is centered over West/Middle TN) will dominate, thus the fcst remains dry outside of the mountains, where pops were even lowered to below sct levels. Chattanooga Airport, TN 98 71 94 71 / 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 95 71 92 70 / 10 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 95 69 92 69 / 10 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 90 66 90 63 / 10 0 10 0.
222 PM MDT Tue Oct 1 2019 Low clouds and light showers will continue to linger across northeast Montana as an upper trough lifts through the region into Wednesday. Steadier precipitation will occur with this trough moving through, and temperatures may support mixing with snow at times, especially by Wednesday evening as precipitation begins to exit to the east.
1237 PM CDT Tue Oct 1 2019 A deep upper level trough will slowly progress eastward today across the western CONUS. Broad southwest flow aloft will be in place on the eastern side of the upper trough across our region. At the surface a cold front will continue to sag south through the Southern Plains. Did try to correspond the higher pops with the better lift - so trimmed back pops a bit late this afternoon into early this evening when the isentropic lift is at the minimum. Highs today will struggle to reach the lower 40s across northwest Nebraska, with mid 40s to lower 50s anticipated across the rest of western and north central Nebraska. The upper trough will begin to weaken and move into the Northern Plains Wednesday.
251 PM CDT Tue Oct 1 2019 A cold front over Kansas and Iowa will move slowly to the southeast over the next couple days.
Prior discussion below: Today and Tonight: Mid level ridge center remains locked in over north MS again this morning and will continue there through tonight. Mid and upper 90s were common yesterday and a degree or two warmer than that will be the case today.
226 PM CDT Tue Oct 1 2019 Very amplified pattern was currently over the CONUS with upper ridge centered over the lower Mississippi valley, a deep trough covering much of the western U. Pretty decent moisture in the area between the ridge and trough with Pacific upper moisture and strong Gulf moisture in the lower levels.
Could see a little break in things with high pressure briefly nudging in for a time on wednesday. However more upstream energy will induce cyclogenesis and bring another low pressure system to the southeast of the area Wednesday night.
/issued 343 AM CDT Tue Oct 1 2019/ The short term forecast is near carbon copy of yesterday as a sprawling upper level ridging remains in place across the southern U. Dry mid level air above 875 mb will limit cloud cover to scattered fair weather CU this afternoon which will once again allow temperatures to climb into the lower 90s. A bit of mid level moisture wrapping around the southeastern side of the upper ridge will allow for a bit more in the way of cloud cover across the region on Wednesday and perhaps even an isolated shower or two although this is not expected to have any widespread effect on afternoon high temperatures.
Upper low lifts north in the southwest flow aloft with rain entering SE ND near the noon hour. The higher elevations of the Devils Lake basin will be the area that is most likely to see accumulations on grassy surfaces. Nonetheless the higher amounts appear set to occur across the areas along a north of Hwy 200.
238 PM EDT Tue Oct 1 2019 Ridging will dominate through much of this week with above normal temperatures.
/Tonight through Tuesxday Night/ Upper lvl ridge has changed little with regards to its positioning centered over lower MS river valley. There is not much in the way of cooler air associated with this first frontal boundary but the increased rain chances will be nice, which combined with the increased cloud cover should help to hold temperatures down into the middle 80s to near 90 degrees for afternoon high temperatures on Fri. By this weekend, what is left of the upper level ridge axis which has been parked across our region for the last week or so will weaken significantly as a vigorous upper level trough moves out of the Intermountain west and into the Central/Northern Plains on Sat.
Light rain and patchy fog will linger into Wednesday as the upper level trough lifts to the northeast. With its passage, conditions will become drier and warmer, raising concerns regarding fire weather.
1130 AM MDT Tue Oct 1 2019 A positively tilted, high amplitude trough extends across the northwestern CONUS, with a broad area of high pressure over the southeastern states. With cold high pressure to the north, winds across the CWA are northerly around 10 kts, and temperatures are falling into the 30s and 40s. Beneath the upper jet, energy ejecting from the trough will continue to support rain and snow today. As the trough continues to push through the region tonight and Wednesday, rain will expand over the CWA, changing to snow again over northeastern WY, the Black Hills, and northwestern SD. Lows will dip near or below freezing most places Wednesday night, and widespread frost will develop. Transient upper ridging will end the week with warmer and dry conditions.
252 PM CDT Tue Oct 1 2019 (Tonight and Wedesaday) An upper level ridge centered across the Southeast U. Temperatures will be well above normal, with overnight lows in the low to mid 70s and highs on Wednesday in the low to mid 90s.
High pressure ridge will build over NorCal into Wednesday with clear and dry conditions prevailing. Cool overnight low temperatures can be expected the next couple nights with Valley low temperatures in the low to mid 40's, which are around 10 degrees below normal.
WSR-88D shows isolated showers developing over interior portions of the forecast area this evening within a region of enhanced moisture and weak ascent provided by a weak impulse on the southern/southeastern periphery of the ridge aloft centered over the Mid-Mississippi and Tennessee Valley. High pressure over the Southeast promotes an easterly flow both at the surface and aloft through the near term.
428 PM CDT Tue Oct 1 2019 Another dry and warm afternoon across the area as strong ridging aloft centered over the ARKLAMISS continues to flex its muscle, with temperatures areawide climbing into the lower 90s along with some mid 90s noted over parts of east central LA. Deep layer ridge is progged to lift a bit to the north tomorrow, taking on a more E-W orientation. The unseasonably warm temperatures will otherwise continue, with highs once again expected to top out in the low to perhaps mid 90s. The ridge is expected to continue to erode on THU while an upper level inverted trof tracks WWD across the western Gulf into coastal TX. Highs, unfortunately, will remain in the lower 90s.
648 PM CDT Tue Oct 1 2019 A cold front over Kansas and Iowa will move slowly to the southeast over the next couple days.
705 PM CDT Tue Oct 1 2019 VFR conditions to persist across the region as upper level ridging remains over the SE CONUS. /Tonight through Tuesday Night/ Upper lvl ridge has changed little with regards to its positioning centered over lower MS river valley. There is not much in the way of cooler air associated with this first frontal boundary but the increased rain chances will be nice, which combined with the increased cloud cover should help to hold temperatures down into the middle 80s to near 90 degrees for afternoon high temperatures on Fri. By this weekend, what is left of the upper level ridge axis which has been parked across our region for the last week or so will weaken significantly as a vigorous upper level trough moves out of the Intermountain west and into the Central/Northern Plains on Sat.
A persistent trough over the western states will bring continued breezy southwest winds through early this evening.
Some localized low- lying areas in northeast Utah and northwest Colorado could reach or dip below freezing tonight. However, due to the spotty coverage of subfreezing potential, no Freeze highlights were issued. A front will cross the region Wednesday morning as an upper level trough passes to the north. As the trough slides east, upper level winds will shift to the west, and temperatures will drop around 5 degrees below normal.
529 PM MDT Tue Oct 1 2019 Western CONUS upper trough is slowly pushing east today with light rain and snow showers across the area, even some freezing rain at times in the higher elevations. Fairly unusual setup for the time of year, with satellite and bufr progs confirming a lack of ice in the mid and upper levels given warm ll profiles, resulting in the the production of freezing rain when combined with unseasonably cool 2m temps. Further south, a mix of rain, freezing rain, and sleet will be possible. Although profiles support freezing rain (mainly in the Black Hills and portions of NE WY), any ice accretion will be highly limited given low expected QPF, warm surfaces, and temps right around freezing. 5 inch range, with the highest totals expected on ridge tops/buttes/hills and on grassy sfcâs.
Not much change with this evening update, as high pressure continues to dominate much of the weather over the eastern CONUS. The strong ridge (with 500 mb heights near the climatological max for early October) will persist through the first part of short term period, keeping temps well above normal. Under mostly clear skies, temps will warm into the mid to upper 90s once again on Wednesday, with overnight lows Wednesday night only fall into the lower 70s.
Behind the front temperatures are about 35-45 degrees cooler than this time yesterday. The cold front has slowly sagged southward with temps in the 70s ahead of the front. There could be periods of heavy rain this evening nearest the cold front, but the remainder of the area should see light to moderate rain through the evening hours and into Wednesday night.
Warmer weather is in store for the region during the remainder of the week, with interior temperatures in the 80s expected over the weekend.
Thankfully humidity levels are not too bad with current dewpoints in the low to mid 60s. More record heat is expected tomorrow as upper level high centers right over us, although ridge will begin weakening so temps look to be a hair "cooler" than today's readings. Upper high is large and in charge.
642 PM CDT Tue Oct 1 2019 After only peaking this afternoon in the low to mid 40s in some areas, the main challenge tonight is how cold it may get. Upper low lifts north in the southwest flow aloft with rain entering SE ND near the noon hour. The higher elevations of the Devils Lake basin will be the area that is most likely to see accumulations on grassy surfaces. Nonetheless the higher amounts appear set to occur across the areas along a north of Hwy 200.
1055 PM EDT Tue Oct 1 2019 Ridging will dominate through much of this week with above normal temperatures.
/issued 252 PM CDT Tue Oct 1 2019/ (Tonight and Wedesaday) An upper level ridge centered across the Southeast U. Temperatures will be well above normal, with overnight lows in the low to mid 70s and highs on Wednesday in the low to mid 90s.
Outside of rainfall from Tropical Cyclones Dorian and Humberto, shower and thunderstorm development was limited during the month.
1050 PM EDT Tue Oct 1 2019 Currently - High pressure over the southeastern United States and a broad low pressure system migrating westward through the northwestern Caribbean Sea is producing fresh northeast breezes across the Keys and surrounding waters. The Keys also remain along the southern fringe of a deep layered ridge. Short Term Update - The ridge to our north will weaken overnight, while the broad low in the Caribbean continue to meander westward. Rain chances will remain above normal due to the fast flow and slight cyclonic curvature through the lower levels. Winds should begin tapering off towards morning as the ridge to our north starts weakening.
345 PM MDT Tue Oct 1 2019 The persistent upper level trough to the west of Utah will finally move east through the area Wednesday morning. High pressure aloft will replace the trough later Wednesday.
644 PM CDT Tue Oct 1 2019 Wednesday will be the last unseasonably warm and humid day as the upper level ridge centered over the TN Valley region shifts southeast and the deep upper level trough over the northern Rockies moves eastward.
Primary focus is on behavior of cold front that stretches from C IA, to along the srn Nebraska/Nrn KS border, to SE CO this afternoon. which is keeping a deep upper-deck trough over Wrn MT & ID. The upper-deck pattern slowly deamplifies Wed & Wed Night as the afore-mentioned upper trough widens as it pushes E across the Northern Rockies Wed then across the Northern Plains Wed Night. The Weekend: Another strong mid-upper wave will surge across the Rockies on Fri but would decelerate as it approaches the Great Plains due to a a rapidly amplifying upper ridge that'll punch from the SE U. IFR/LIFR cigs are expected to develop north of a cold front across central Kansas tonight and Wednesday.
This is all due to the mid-level ridge currently centered across northern Mississippi, yet extended as far west across Texas, that will lift to the north across the Tennessee Valley Wednesday, allowing for a weak wave and increased moisture to move into the western Gulf of Mexico.
Cold advection starts moving in aft 06z however most areas will still have dewpoints in the lower 60s so minimums will be close to that. Upper low drifts into western Ontario Friday. Cooler air will continue spread southward through the fa. Could see some spotty shra/tsra across the far north as secondary cold front skirts the area.
Medium-range models continue to show the low to our east drifting wwd into the weekend. and some early daytime heating with low convective temps should lead to widespread convection especially over the ern 1/3 of the area with closer proximity to the low. As we move into the weekend this trend looks to remain static as the low drifts ever so slowly our way.
An upper trough across eastern New Mexico along with a good plume of moisture across the area will lead to increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms across the region. /Issued 358 AM CDT THU AUG 11 2016/ Latest 11/00Z continues to show a 700 hPa trough axis established over eastern NM with our region downstream of the trough axis. Current forecast continues to show a cold front slowly makings its way south-southeast through the region as the main mesoscale focal point of the short term forecast. As we go into Thursday night/Friday morning, a surface cold front will be moving due south across western Kansas into the Oklahoma Panhandle.
along with area wide scattered convection will keep highs Friday slightly cooler for all.
/ISSUED 354 AM CDT THU AUG 11 2016/ The hot weather will continue across all of North and Central Texas through Friday as an upper level ridge dominates the weather across the region. We have an interesting weather pattern with an upper level ridge that extends from the Mid-Atlantic States west across the Tennessee Valley and then southwest across Eastern Texas down into Deep South Texas. An upper level low has been drifting westward toward southeastern Louisiana. Meanwhile, an upper level trough has moved into the western United States. The western part of the ridge will start to break down as an upper level trough moves across the Central Plains and the upper level low moves west northwestward across Louisiana. As this occurs, a cold front will move southwest entering North Texas overnight Friday night.
A warming trend is expected as high pressure builds over the west. Warmer temperatures are expected beginning today, and mainly across the inland areas as high pressure aloft builds over the west.
Many locations are 1-3F warmer than yesterday, so anticipate slightly hotter temperatures than yesterday. Later this afternoon, showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop across the Texas panhandle as a a mid-level/500 mb trough axis approaches from the west. These showers and storms could impact northwest Oklahoma late afternoon into the evening and should help propagate the effective cold front into Oklahoma tonight. Outside of northwest Oklahoma, isolated storms could develop almost anywhere, but expected coverage/confidence is much lower than yesterday because of warmer mid-level temperatures and the lack of mesoscale ascent. A cold front will also approach NW OK around 12Z Friday.
Bermuda high pressure will extend over the Southeast U. The low-level air mass across central and eastern NC is quite moist with surface dew points in the mid to upper 70s with a dew point of 81 reported at Goldsboro at 14Z. -blaes Persistence with Bermuda high pressure in control. Through the weekend, the sub-tropical ridge will continue to build into the Carolinas, while a cold front moves into the Midwest and stalls west of the mountains.
925 AM CDT THU AUG 11 2016 H5 ridging still in place over the region today, downstream from troughing over the Western CONUS. H85 temps are forecast to be slightly warmer than yesterday and thus high temps should be a couple degrees or so warmer than yesterday as well. Relief is coming though, as the Western CONUS trough migrates east and pushes a front thru the region this weekend. /Issued 324 AM CDT THU AUG 11 2016/ 594-595DM upper ridge remains in control across the forecast area. The upper ridge will finally begin to break down/shift south by Friday as a broad upper trof passes through the northern/central Plains.
Southwest to southeast winds 5 to 15 knots then becoming north and northeast behind a cold front between 12Z and 18Z Friday. An upper trough across eastern New Mexico along with a good plume of moisture across the area will lead to increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms across the region. /Issued 358 AM CDT THU AUG 11 2016/ Latest 11/00Z continues to show a 700 hPa trough axis established over eastern NM with our region downstream of the trough axis. Current forecast continues to show a cold front slowly makings its way south-southeast through the region as the main mesoscale focal point of the short term forecast. As we go into Thursday night/Friday morning, a surface cold front will be moving due south across western Kansas into the Oklahoma Panhandle.
Building high pressure will result in a warming trend over the next several days with inland temperatures reaching the triple digits. An upper level ridge will begin to build over the west coast today resulting in continued warming temperatures in the interior and a strengthening marine layer inversion near the coast.
An upper level ridge that is currently residing across the southeastern U. Upper level wise the period begins with 595 upper level high parked off the VA/NC coast line. A more broad upper level trough axis will be setup across the central plains. This pattern looks to remain in place and this aforementioned high becomes more of blocking high.
An upper level ridge is building offshore today. Currently subsidence from the high is producing clear skies and light winds over eastern WA and OR. Ridging will also create a warming trend this week.
734 AM EDT THU AUG 11 2016 Aviation A slow moving cold front will push southeastward through the Great Lakes region over the next couple of days.
Timing and placement will again depend on the passage of upper level waves in the zonal flow just north of the southeastern Conus ridge. The Southern CONUS upper high is progged to be shunted east this weekend as weak upper trough advances out of the West.
1042 AM EDT THU AUG 11 2016 Upper ridge to the east through the week.
As the upper low pressure system spins through southern Saskatchewan today, residual scattered rain showers and a few small thunderstorms on the backside of the system will be possible for our northern, central, and western zones. BMickelson Previous short term discussion: The day begins with the closed low spinning just north of the International border. This low will move into Manitoba tonight. The trough pattern will also keep temperatures a bit below average, at least through Friday.
A cold front will also approach NW OK around 12Z Friday.
/Issued 324 AM CDT THU AUG 11 2016/ 594-595DM upper ridge remains in control across the forecast area. The upper ridge will finally begin to break down/shift south by Friday as a broad upper trof passes through the northern/central Plains.
936 AM EDT THU AUG 11 2016 East central Florida finds itself under a weakness between lower pressure to our northwest and high pressure centered east of the Carolinas.
Looks as though trough will set back up over north GA by Sat afternoon which would normally act as a good focus for storm initiation this time of year.
330 PM CDT FRI JUL 1 2016 With high pressure overhead this afternoon, abundant sunshine, light winds, and dry air remain in place across the Upper Midwest this afternoon. At the surface, high pressure will stretch from the lower Great Lakes on westward to southern Minnesota and then curve down into Nebraska.
Mainly clear skies expected tonight, with lows in the lower 70s.
523 PM EDT FRI JUL 1 2016 Scattered showers and possibly a few thunderstorms will accompany a cold front across the region this afternoon.
404 PM EDT FRI JUL 1 2016 A cold front over the Great Lakes will push southeast across central Pa later this afternoon and this evening. High pressure will then build over the northeast conus over the weekend.
451 PM EDT FRI JUL 1 2016 A warm front will lift across the region tonight followed by a cold front on Saturday.
As expected, convection got an early start over the Florida Panhandle and is currently spreading northeastward across the Big Bend and our southern tier Georgia zones where Pops for today are the highest (70-80%).
the models are very similar in the location of the low and the general areas of the showers and thunderstorms. As the low deepens east of the Rocky Mountain Front from Montana into Wyoming on Saturday, there's a better chances of showers and thunderstorms, with strong storms producing gusty winds.
For Saturday, the ridge of high pressure that has brought unseasonably warm temperatures the last few days will flatten. The highest potential for showers/thunderstorms will be across far northwest Montana, with chances decreasing south of Missoula. Cloud cover and the flattening ridge will help to cool temperatures several degrees over today.
The NAM has a closed low while the GFS and ECMWF are open waves. Expect there to be cloudy skies across the area Saturday and temperatures will be quite a bit cooler than recently.
Low temperatures will range from the lower 50s across the NE KILX CWA. High pressure and the associated dry airmass will we slow to depart, and the richer/deeper moisture return does not really begin until Saturday night.
A cool night is in store tonight with the typical cool spots in north central WI falling into the lower 40s.
Otw, high pressure will build in tonight and Saturday.
Surface analysis this afternoon places a weak cold front from Huntingdon, Tennessee back through central Arkansas.
Increased cloud cover and precipitation will result in cooler temperatures today and Saturday with highs a few to several degrees below normal across central and western areas.
Min temps will fall close to climo values in the lower to middle 70s inland and upper 70s along the St Johns River/Coast. This later start will allow for max temps to surge into the lower/middle 90s inland with heat indices of 100-105 degrees.