Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
A warming trend is in store, and today will be about 5-7 degrees warmer than yesterday. Upper level high pressure ridge will build over the region, and the northwest winds aloft will decrease. This is associated with a closed low east of the Rockies weakening into an upper level trough but providing weak instability over far northeast Oregon.
The diurnal showers will quickly dissipate near sunset over east central/southeast Iowa followed by clearing and light winds overnight as high pressure approaches from the north. Very dry air is filtering south into far northern Iowa ahead of the high pressure system. Expecting overnight lows to drop into the low to mid 30s over north central Iowa. Therefore, have added a frost advisory along and north of the Highway 20 corridor.
Anabatic cold front will slip through the region Tuesday night with some showers in its wake.
244 PM MDT Mon May 10 2021 The closed low responsible for our unsettled weather this afternoon remains over central Idaho at this hour. Flow around this low, along with an upper level jet streak, and cooler temperatures aloft have all combined to create a showery, and now stormy afternoon. Still looking for some light snow overnight in the 1 to 3 inch range for the higher terrain along the Divide and onto the Grand Mesa.
/issued 750 AM EDT Mon May 10 2021/ Flat ridging resides aloft the Gulf of Mexico region today as Atlantic high pressure resides across FL and out over the Gulf. Atlantic high pressure across the waters continues into midweek with southerly winds and afternoon sea breezes. A cold front with showers and thunderstorms trek through late in the week with winds shifting to north and northeast.
326 PM CDT Mon May 10 2021 H5 analysis from earlier this morning had a ridge of high pressure up the west coast of the CONUS into the Alaska Panhandle. East of this feature, low pressure was noted over Idaho into western Montana. However, further northeast into the northeastern forecast area and along the highway 20 corridor from Valentine to O'Neill, partly cloudy skies, and drier air in association with high pressure off to the northeast, will be favorable for lows in the lower 30s. The current guidance is near freezing for KLBF Tuesday night with 33 and 32 with the MAV and MET guidance respectively.
24 hrs ago, as surface analysis indicated high pressure ridging building across the northern Plains and into much of the mid-Mississippi River Valley. Today will be a dry day for most of us as high pressure continues to slowly build south into the Plains and Midwest. Thunder chances are low due to the low instability as cloud depths remain shallow from a low EL.
330 PM EDT Mon May 10 2021 Cool showery weather continues this evening, and once again by Tuesday afternoon and night as upper level low pressure tracks across the region. On Tuesday/Tuesday night, aforementioned Canadian upper low pivots southeasterly atop the region. Activity continues into the overnight hours with main trough passage, though will tend to lessen in coverage beyond midnight. Large scale synoptic pattern supports mid/upper lvl trof acrs the ne conus lingering into Weds, with potent 5h vort exiting our fa after 12z.
Warmer conditions and lighter winds arrive on Tuesday, lasting through the remainder of the week. A trough to our north today will keep breezy winds in the forecast, along with the chance for a few light showers near the Four Corners mainly this evening. A weak trough will be on the move through the northern Great Basin today, into Colorado tonight. The mid-level trough axis officially clears our CWA late this evening. Expect another round of gusty west-southwest winds ahead of the trough axis through much of the day, especially over the eastern zones. Cooler air aloft over the northeastern zones will allow for one more day of generally flat CU development. By Tuesday, ridging pushes into Arizona from the EPAC and daytime temperatures will rise above normal as a result, along with less wind.
Ascent atop residual cold frontal slope will be weaker for the rest of the day into the evening. The next perturbation, phasing with a digging/deepening trough over the central Rockies, will bring another round of more widespread convection later tonight, peaking early-mid morning tomorrow, and then shifting east.
A persistent trough parked over the northeastern corner of the US will keep unsettled weather and cool temperatures over NY and PA through Tuesday. As a cold front exits the eastern seaboard tonight, skies will partially clear overnight. As winds slacken overnight, temperatures will fall into the lower and middle 30s, allowing frost to form across most of our forecast counties. Upper trough will finish pivoting over the region with chilly temperatures during the midweek period. Potent wave, embedded within a larger upper trough, will continue to dip over the region Tuesday night with cold air advection and showers.
Offshore flow is already increasing near the coast as the thermal trough deepens, and the warm up for the next several days looks on track. Quiet weather continues for today with an upper level ridge building over the region. A thermal trough will also set up along the coastal range and expand northward throughout the day. Both of these features will allow temperatures to trend 5 to 10 degrees warmer than yesterday.
Low pressure is slowing transitioning south through southern Idaho. The low is producing rain and snow showers in itâs vicinity, mainly extending into Lemhi County and southwest Montana.
Eastern Vernon and much of eastern Richland County could also see freezing temperatures.
High temperatures will top out in the lower to middle 60s. Afternoon highs will climb into the lower to middle 60s. Reports of light fog are also flowing into the office this morning, and with temps in the mid 30s, could see the possibility of light freezing fog on elevated sfc's. This will be driven by the upper level Low pressure system just north of the Great Lakes. High pressure builds slowly across the region Tuesday, lingering throughout much of the week.
108 PM EDT Mon May 10 2021 High pressure will result in dry conditions and below average temperature for much of the week. Dry conditions are expected today as dry air/high pressure slowly clear stratocu NW to SE. The combination of near freezing temperature and light wind will create areas of frost along the I-80 corridor, thus a Frost Advisory has been issued. It was not expanded farther south because confidence in frost developing was too low due to the aforementioned cloudiness and likely warmer temperature.
145 PM EDT Mon May 10 2021 High pressure builds into the region through mid week with below normal temperatures persisting. For now, have kept patchy frost across the northwest counties where clearing and cooler winds are most likely to occur in combination.
250 PM CDT Mon May 10 2021 The latest surface analysis shows high pressure over southern Manitoba. Winds will be light tonight, and with the clear skies and low dew points, expect the lows to be below freezing again in most areas. Have lowered temps from the blend closer to guidance, mainly in areas right under the high late tonight in northwest MN. With the high continuing to move off to the southeast on Tuesday, winds will become southerly and allow warmer temps into the area. Expect highs in the low to mid 60s on Tuesday along with sunny skies. Temps Tuesday night might be the first where we stay above freezing area-wide for the first time in a long time as lows are expected to be in the mid to upper 30s.
With temperatures in the lower 60s, MLCAPEs have increased to 100-200J/kg immediately along/ahead of the boundary. Thanks to at least partial cloud cover holding firm through the night, low temperatures will be several degrees warmer than last night with readings remaining in the lower to middle 40s. Partly to mostly sunny skies will prevail on Tuesday with afternoon highs topping out in the lower 60s. High pressure will dominate the weather across central Illinois for the middle and end of the week, providing cool temps and dry weather.
SBCAPES along the I-10 corridor were 1000 to 2500 J/KG but increased over 3500 J/KG to the south of the cold front. The rest of West Central Texas from the Big County into the Concho Valley was under low clouds behind the cold front. A warm front will also be move in during the morning hours. (Tuesday night through next Monday) A cold front will slowly move through the area Tuesday evening. In addition, gusty northeast winds and cooler temperatures will filter in behind the front.
Weak cold front has moved south of the area but MVFR/IFR CIGs will hold until later today.
237 PM EDT Mon May 10 2021 Weak cold front crosses Tuesday morning. High pressure builds in and remains in place through the end of the week, amid weak upper level systems crossing. High pressure and much drier air will push into the area tomorrow afternoon giving way to quieter weather by tomorrow night. Have leaned slightly on the warmer side of guidance as the second wave of cloud cover moves in for the night. Tomorrow's temperatures are expected to be in the low to mid 60s for the lowlands and upper 40s to 50s for the higher elevations. High pressure will keep conditions dry during the period.
An upper level low will slowly drift westward into eastern Idaho today, spreading showers into the mountains and even bringing a slight chance of thunderstorms. Upper level low over eastern ID supports mountain showers, and isolated thunderstorms, this afternoon over Idaho mountains, with isolated MVFR and obscurement.
246 PM MDT Mon May 10 2021 Upper low pressure was spinning over ID early this afternoon, with a diffluent flow aloft over the central Rockies. Temperatures were steady in the low to mid 30s along and west of I-25, with upper 30s and lower 40s to the east. Most high-resolution models are in agreement with the continuation of rain and snow through Tuesday morning as the upper low pressure system slowly tracks to the east across WY and CO. High temperatures Tuesday will continue well below seasonal normals, ranging from the 30s and 40s south of a Chadron to Douglas line, to the low and mid 50s to the north.
330 PM EDT Mon May 10 2021 Low pressure will approach tonight and cross the area Tuesday into Tuesday night.
Looks like breezes and cooler temperatures return over the weekend. Northerly winds are expected to increase again later this afternoon as a trough currently in ID, brings a piece of energy through eastern NV. Upper trough over the northern Great Basin/northern Rockies will slide southeast through Utah and the central Rockies today and Tuesday. Models show a stronger vorticity center rotating through base of trough over northeast Nevada this afternoon and evening.
More breezy winds with cooler temperatures expected over the weekend. Trough currently moving through Idaho will continue to dig south and east through today, bringing a piece of energy through eastern Nevada. These winds will eventually push through the Lower Colorado River Valley overnight and into tomorrow morning where gusts to 20-25 mph will be possible. As the trough quickly moves east tomorrow morning, winds across the region will quickly decrease as well and become light and variable by tomorrow afternoon/evening.
Low temperatures tonight will not be quite as cold as last night due to more cloud cover, although the lows will still be about 10 degrees below normal. The unseasonably cool weather pattern will continue Tuesday and Tuesday night as a reinforcing cold front drops southward through our forecast area late tonight and Tuesday morning.
307 PM EDT Mon May 10 2021 Current synoptic setup consists of a broad upper low situated over eastern Ontario/Great Lakes Region with a large area of ridging following it. as the ridge of high pressure strengthens over the northern Plains, so will the subsidence over central Indiana.
/15/ Tomorrow night through Monday: The forecast period starts off tomorrow night with a stalled cold front across northern Mississippi oriented parallel to zonal flow aloft.
Quiet weather is expected in the first few days of the forecast as upper-level zonal flow becomes northwesterly by mid-week while upper level ridging builds across the western states. Combined with mostly clear skies overnight, early morning lows are forecast to bottom out in the low to mid 30's in our northern counties to the low 40s in our south. Easterly surface winds, mid/high clouds from southern system with a continued cool airmass should keep highs on Tuesday close to today's readings in the low 60s which is about 10 degrees below normal.
At the surface, weak surface ridging extends across the Central Plains and Upper Midwest. Otherwise, a cooler-than-normal afternoon was ongoing with temperatures in the 50s area-wide.
Lower amplitude mid level impulse preceding this main height fall center now transiting the lower peninsula, offering some mid level cloud but absent of meaningful low level moisture advection. Perpetuation of a modest northwest gradient suggests some limitation to radiational cooling, but the inbound main upper trough axis will initiate another period of cold air advection throughout the morning hours. Regionally collaborated frost/freeze headlines highlight the general expectation for where a meaningful dip below the freezing mark is more likely /northwest of metro Detroit/. Low-mid level thermal troughing maintains residence into the Tuesday period - the reinforcing shot of colder air easing 850 mb temperatures below -4C.
High pressure will build into the area and bring mainly sunny skies and warmer temps.
Afternoon temperatures in the lower to mid 50s will average around 20 degrees below normal. Kept all precipitation as rain, although some wet snow may mix in at times across the highest terrain of NW Hamilton county. Afternoon temperatures will range from upper 40s west to the lower 50s east, 25-30 degrees below normal! The record low max at Dodge City for May 11th is 47, set last year in 2020.
1217 PM MDT Mon May 10 2021 Current surface map places high pressure across central Canada into then Northern Plains. Elongated upper trof located across the Rockies into the central plains will result in diurnal shower activity today and Tuesday. Thermal profiles support rain/snow mix for the higher elevations of the Black Hills.
A persistent trough parked over the northeastern corner of the US will keep unsettled weather and cool temperatures over NY and PA through Tuesday. As a cold front exits the eastern seaboard tonight, skies will partially clear overnight. As winds slacken overnight, temperatures will fall into the lower and middle 30s, allowing frost to form across most of our forecast counties.
A cold front remains well to the south over Louisiana, and temperatures today have failed to make it into the 60's across much of Arkansas. A zonal flow pattern aloft will persist thru the period, although a few pertubations will ripple acrosss the area from a trof over the western US.
339 PM CDT Mon May 10 2021 With high pressure in place overnight, expecting clear skies and light winds, with many areas falling to 32 degrees or below. Went towards the lower end percentiles in favored cold spots, such as Aberdeen. This high will still largely control our weather on Tuesday, with light southeast winds expected east of the Missouri River. Southerly breezes will persist into Tuesday night, so expect warmer overnight lows that remain above freezing.
Then we will see some clearing toward dawn on Tuesday which could allow for a few degrees difference from the ridges to the valleys. This will keep the northerly flow going and this will subsequently keep afternoon highs in the low to mid 60s for most. We will see sunny skies for most early before a mix of sun and clouds settles in through the afternoon, as another weak wave pushes across the lower Ohio Valley.
1249 PM EDT Mon May 10 2021 A trough will linger across the central Great Lakes through tonight. A cold front will then sweep across the region on Tuesday.
203 PM MDT Mon May 10 2021 Latest analysis shows an upper low over the Great Lakes region with an upper trough extending westward to another upper low over Idaho. At the surface, a broad area of high pressure is centered over Manitoba with low pressure over the four corners region, which is producing light easterly winds over much of the forecast area. Temperature profiles indicate that there might be some -SHRASN in the higher elevations of the Black Hills.
Strong Canadian high pressure over the Great Lakes will dominate the middle of the week, resulting in quiet and unseasonably cool weather. Limiting factor on Wed morning will be NE winds, and a short night that will start off with plenty of cloud cover immediately behind the reinforcing cold front. By Wed night/Thu morning the air mass is already beginning to modify, so many locations might actually be a degree or two warmer, but with less wind we could see some of the sheltered valleys, esp across the northern part of the Bluegrass region, dip farther into the 30s. Heights aloft start to rise as the main upper low lifts out of New England, but it's a weak split flow pattern that's left behind.
Rather cool this afternoon as the low level cloudiness has been tough to dislodge.
Look for chilly overnight lows with readings down into the low to mid 40s in most spots.
1158 AM MDT Mon May 10 2021 With the H5 trough slowly dropping southeast across ID/UT, westerly flow ahead of it across CO will be inducing lee cyclogenesis there. As the trough moves east tonight into Tuesday, the region transitions to a NW flow, reducing the snows on the Winds, while bringing some snow to the Big Horn range. as the cold pool moves east with the trough, some recovery will be noted Tuesday, with highs back in the 50s and low 60s, albeit with mostly cloudy skies continuing. There will be a ridge to the west of Wyoming, with northwest flow across the state.
120 PM PDT Mon May 10 2021 Cooler weather will prevail today with temperatures near to slightly below normal.
129 PM CDT Mon May 10 2021 A cold front continues to shift south of the area this afternoon. Low clouds, mist and fog have persisted atop the higher Plateaus thus far, especially in our southeastern counties. We will keep PoPs in the low to mid chance range for now, but may need to increase this if model consistency continues.
133 PM EDT Mon May 10 2021 A trough will linger across the central Great Lakes through tonight. A cold front will then sweep across the region on Tuesday.
1252 PM CDT Mon May 10 2021 Early this morning, scattered midlevel clouds are very slowly increasing across the area, but temperatures have already plunged into the low to mid 30s across central and north-central Nebraska. After this cold start, skies will remain partly to mostly cloudy through the day as we see continued 500mb vorticity advection ahead of the trough over the Rockies. This will limit high temperatures to the high 50s to low 60s. Tonight, temperatures should be a few degrees warmer than this morning thanks to increasing cloud cover. Coverage of light rain will be on the increase, though, as the upper trough moves out of the Rockies and through the central Plains.
104 PM MDT Mon May 10 2021 Given the upper low and coldest air aloft to our west/southwest, upslope easterly winds, and dry advection in our east (afternoon dew points in the 20s), focus of shower activity into the early evening will be over our western/southern parts, especially the mountains and foothills. Temps on Tuesday should climb to the upper 50s to lower 60s, which is still a bit cooler than normal.
High pressure builds in across the eastern forecast area today. The upper pattern features a decaying upper low with a high to the north. This decaying low will drift east, but at the surface, broad high pressure across the eastern CONUS will provide a fetch of cool, dry air.
356 PM EDT Mon May 10 2021 A weak cold front will move through the area tonight. High pressure will then prevail through the rest of the week. This will force a weak cold front across the area. Remaining post frontal clouds will clear Tuesday morning as high pressure builds in.
At the surface, broad high pressure generally situated over the Upper Midwest has placed our region under the influence of cool and moist low-level easterly flow.
404 PM EDT Mon May 10 2021 Cool showery weather continues this evening, and once again by Tuesday afternoon and night as upper level low pressure tracks across the region. On Tuesday/Tuesday night, aforementioned Canadian upper low pivots southeasterly atop the region. Activity continues into the overnight hours with main trough passage, though will tend to lessen in coverage beyond midnight.
1251 PM PDT Mon May 10 2021 High pressure will build over the region with warming temperatures and lessening wind.
Main focus will be on frost potential with chilly airmass in place ahead of building high pressure. After a chilly start Tuesday, some diurnal CU still likely given lingering mid level cyclonic flow and lower level thermal trough. High pressure then dominates into Tuesday night with more frost potential.
213 PM CDT Mon May 10 2021 High pressure over the region will continue to be the main weather influence over the short term. Overall, temperatures will likely be slightly warmer than last night's (but still chilly for this time of year) as the center of the high pressure drifts to our southeast, resulting in surface winds swinging out of the south. Slightly warmer temperatures are expected for tomorrow with continued dry conditions.
Warmer conditions and lighter winds arrive on Tuesday, lasting through the remainder of the week. Breezy west to southwest winds today are in response to a trough driving south through Utah this afternoon. As the trough moves through the Four Corners region tonight, there will be a slight chance for a few showers in that region.
A cold front extended from near KCNM-KPEQ-KOZA, w/the dryline banked up against the higher terrain, putting the triple point invof KCNM. In the bigger picture, WV imagery shows an upper trough crossing the Gulf of CA at 18Z, and is due into West Texas and Southeast New Mexico late tonight/Tuesday. Tuesday, the dryline, already banked up against the higher terrain, will mix very little east, and then surge west Tuesday night, w/50F dewpoints as far in as KATS/KCNM. A backdoor cold front will move SW through the Permian Basin Tuesday afternoon, and to the Presidio Valley late Tuesday night. This will collide w/the aforementioned Gulf of CA trough, expanding the convective threat west.
930 AM PDT Mon May 10 2021 Cooler weather will prevail today with temperatures near to slightly below normal.
A cold front has reached the I-59 corridor and will continue to push south. Temperatures are in the lower 50s in southern TN to lower 60s near I-59 to Cullman County. Another chilly night for this time of year, with lows in the upper 40s to lower 50s, close to 10 degrees cooler than normal. Despite clouds and higher rain chances, high temperatures should warm into the lower 70s.
347 PM CDT Mon May 10 2021 There is a low pressure system over the Great Lakes and another one over the Great Basin. Clouds and cooler air remain in place with afternoon temperatures again around 60 degrees. Highlights: 1) Cool - below seasonal normal by 15 to 20 degrees 2) Precipitation chances thru Wed afternoon 3) Warmer at the end of week Change: Precipitation chances The wave over the Great Basin moves southeast to the Front Range for Tuesday then tracks east. As mentioned in the previous discussion, a ridge is impacting the influence of the upcoming impulses.
Overall, the Keys are sitting under the southwestern periphery of the Bermuda ridge.
304 PM MST Mon May 10 2021 The southern end of an upper trough will keep locally breezy conditions going into the evening hours. Anticipate another day with highs on the lower deserts in the mid 90s on Tuesday.
Highs will also be similar to today, perhaps a few degrees warmer, still well below average.