Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Temperatures were mostly in the 40s area-wide, and actually warmer over some areas north of I-80 where the sky was clear. The main forecast issues in the short term period involve prospects for dense fog and freezing drizzle overnight. Surface temperatures near freezing are mostly likely along Highway 20 in Iowa, and cannot rule out a light glaze of ice in this area early Sunday morning. After this system moves out of the area a more normal to slightly warmer weather pattern is expected. Strong H5 trof expected to be just west and south of Iowa.
834 PM EST Sat Jan 20 2018 High pressure will remain near the southeastern US coastline through the rest of the weekend.
233 PM PST Sat Jan 20 2018 Dry and cool conditions will prevail this weekend as weak high pressure moves over the region.
Cloud coverage is diminishing through the rest of the afternoon and will then increase again Sunday as the upper level low positions itself over the area. At the surface, high pressure will continue to move southeastward into the region which will increase the low-level southerly flow.
Patchy freezing fog will be possible in the wake of these light snow bursts.
Winter headlines look on track this afternoon as water vapor showing upper low ejecting out of the desert southwest. Upper low tracks into south central Colorado this evening with our CWFA in favorable upper level diffluence to the north of the low.
A cold front is pushing eastward across eastern Arizona this afternoon with several bands of precipitation. The cold front is pushing through Navajo and Gila Counties this afternoon. Upper level cold pool/trough axis is just now moving into far western Arizona.
The upper level trof that is to our west will move closer through the overnight period. Some freezing drizzle will be possible by morning as well, mainly across the I70 corridor. A trowal is expected to develop northwest of the 700-hPa cyclone, which right now, looks mainly to remain across northwest Kansas and into Nebraska.
A strong cold front will reach the coast and move inland, all on Sunday morning. East-southeast gradient will tighten significantly tonight in advance of a strong cold front that will cross the waters on Sunday morning.
705 PM EST Sat Jan 20 2018 23z sfc analysis shows low pressure approaching from the west pushing high pressure out of the area to the east. All the light returns seen on the regional radars have been well to the north and west of the CWA so far this evening, but do expect more activity encroaching later tonight as the low pressure area gets a bit closer. Have adjusted the forecast mainly to adjust temperatures a bit warmer through the evening and overnight per the latest conditions and guidance. The boundary in the form of a warm front finally lifts north of the area taking the rainfall with it.
/22/ Tonight and Sunday: Mid level ridging in the wake of the departing cold core system along the Gulf Coast will put the lid back on convective/shower possibilities for the majority of the area tonight into Sunday. Though precipitation will be hard to come by through Sunday, the warmth will return in earnest, first with milder overnight lows tonight then for daytime highs Sunday reaching into the low to mid 70s.
539 PM CST Sat Jan 20 2018 A strong low pressure system will develop across the central Plains bringing snow and wind to north central Nebraska. Sunday: The low pressure system will become well organized by Sunday morning as it moves off the Rockies and into the central Plains. A surge of boundary layer warm air will result in a slight chance of some freezing drizzle across areas mainly along and south of I-80. Confidence in freezing drizzle is very low.
There are mid and high level clouds streaming into the south, so the greater fog potential is probably along and north of the highway 200 corridor. With the recent warmer temperatures there is a crust on the snowpack so falling snow would be needed for blowing snow.
1015 PM EST Sat Jan 20 2018 Dry high pressure will dominate through Sunday.
Lows will remain mild with the considerable cloud cover ranging from the lower 50s north to mid 50s central and south but warmer along the Martin county coast, in the upper 50s. A few late night light showers may track north of a KLEE-KDAB line with the approach of the short wave trough tracking across N FL.
1014 PM EST Sat Jan 20 2018 Dry high pressure will dominate through Sunday.
An upper low continues to spin over southern Mississippi and eastern Louisiana. This upper low is interacting with southerly return flow and warm air advection to produce some light showers near the Mississippi River. Models are in good agreement that these showers will dry up as they move eastward across Mississippi into a drier air mass as the upper low outruns the low-level moisture return. Winds will go calm in the east closer to high pressure, while some light winds will continue in the west due to the gradient associated with developing low pressure over the High Plains. Dew points in the 30s will keep lows in the east from being as cool as last night, with upper 30s to low 40s expected across the area, and mid 30s in the typically cooler locations.
Dewpoints around 60F should reach the I-40 corridor tomorrow in advance of the merged cold front dry line.
Winds will pick up on the coast by sunrise Sunday, and even though there is a slightly offshore gradient, the 850 mb winds are 65-75 knots from the southwest, which will tuck the winds into the coast, and the high winds warning at the coast still looks on track. with temperatures hovering around freezing, snow may be wet and heavy at times, and with the gusty winds may collect on trees with some branches breaking and even possibly some trees toppling in the Mt.
Coldest minimum temps in the inland valley locations could be in the lower to mid 30s.
241 PM PST Sat Jan 20 2018 Breezy conditions will continue this evening in the wake of a low pressure system moving from Southern California into Arizona.
Mid level s/w ridging is moving overhead this afternoon and aiding in significantly warmer temps today. This s/w ridge will shift east of the area tonight with a strong s/w trough then digging into the southern Rockies tonight. Aforementioned s/w trough digs into W TX and W OK on Sunday with a sfc front shifting south and east across TX. The surface front will progress towards and across the area Sunday night with mainly clear skies prevailing along with cooler min temps and weak to moderate NW winds.
The cold frontal passage has moved into New Mexico with lingering showers still moving eastward across northern Arizona. The cold front is pushing through Navajo and Gila Counties this afternoon. Upper level cold pool/trough axis is just now moving into far western Arizona.
530 PM CST Sat Jan 20 2018 Updated aviation section for 00z taf issuance Clouds overspread much of the region today as anticipated along with even warmer temperatures, helping to rid the snow where it persists.
The warmer pattern will continue through the rest of the weekend as southerly winds increase between high pressure along the southeast coast and developing low pressure over the high plains. The low pressure system and a trailing cold front will move eastward to the MS Valley Sunday night.
426 PM MST Sat Jan 20 2018 Water vapor shows deep trof over the western CONUS with strong jet extending from just west of the Four Corners northeastward through WY and SE MT, then eastward across ND and northern MN.
/issued 214 PM CDT Tue Jul 11 2017/ Inverted trough across the northern gulf coast to maintain a chance of showers and thunderstorms across east Texas and north Louisiana through this evening. Ongoing weather pattern to persist through the remainder of the workweek as weak upper-level trough drifts north and lingers across the region.
Expect partly cloudy skies to prevail overnight with lows in the low/mid 70s. Highs will climb into the low 90s again across the area.
A ridge of high pressure located from the desert southwest across the central plains into the southeastern U.
940 PM EDT Tue Jul 11 2017 A sup-tropical ridge will expand from the central N. , while a surface a trough will remain anchored in the lee of the central and southern Appalachians, through the end of the week. There has been little to no change in airmass, with high pressure dominating aloft and warm, moist southwesterly flow at the surface. As a result, expect another warm, humid night with lows in the low to mid 70s and RHs in the 90-100 percent range. Temperatures will continue to go up on Wednesday as the subtropical ridge builds over the Carolinas and thickness values approach 1440.
1013 PM MDT Tue Jul 11 2017 Latest radar trends show isolated thunderstorms continuing over the higher terrain of northern Carbon and Albany counties and crossing the North Laramie Range into Converse County. A few high based storms have formed over the higher terrain in Carbon and Albany Counties but not much in the way of precipitation with these cells.
Quieter weather and warming temperatures are forecast Wednesday through this weekend due to a strong high pressure ridge building over the region. Northerly winds will decrease by midnight and remain light and variable through Wednesday as high pressure builds.
/Issued 356 PM CDT Tue Jul 11 2017/ There will be two areas for possible convective development this afternoon as the ridge of high pressure loosens its grip across North and Central Texas. As will be the story for much of the week, lows tonight will remain in the low to mid 70s, except around the Dallas/Fort Worth metroplex where the heat island effect will keep lows in the upper 70s.
This combined with temperatures in the lower 90s has resulted in widespread heat index values in the 102 to 107 range this afternoon. Similar conditions are expected on Wednesday, although the higher dewpoints may shift farther north and northeast into northern MO with slightly lower dewpoints further south including KC and surrounding areas.
1044 PM EDT Tue Jul 11 2017 High pressure ridging into the area from the western Atlantic will bring warm and humid conditions through the end of the work week. A cold front will stall over the area this weekend, bringing increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms. Overnight lows will generally be in the lower 70s. Upper ridge attempts to slowly build in from the Atlantic. high pressure off the east coast will try to build slowly westward. Highs will be in the low/mid 90s with overnight lows in the low/mid 70s.
Quieter weather and warming temperatures are forecast Wednesday through this weekend due to a strong high pressure ridge building over the region.
High pressure building in behind this boundary of storms should preclude any more thunderstorms over night. GAH PREVIOUS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION: Upper level low pressure system over southern Saskatchewan will continue to aid isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms into the evening hours, diminishing after midnight. Wednesday: High pressure ridge begins to rebuild over the region with warming MAX temps and decreasing Min RH values.
/issued 1256 PM PDT Tue Jul 11 2017/ Broad high pressure currently centered over the four corners will begin retrograding over the west coast later this week. Some anticyclonic southwesterly flow on the westward periphery of the ridge along with some moisture present will bring the daily threat of afternoon and evening thunderstorms over the Sierra crest areas each day through the end of the week.
Mainly dry, and slightly cooler weather will arrive for the weekend. As storms tracking through south central mountains dissipate, their outflow may produce strong wind gusts over the lower Susq so will watch closely for that in the next hour or two. The lows will be some 5-10 deg warmer than normal. trough in response to strengthening upper level ridge centered over the Four Corners states.
A typical summer day is underway across the Mid-South with temps in the lower 90s and dewpoints in the 65 to 70 degree range. A broad upper ridge extends across the southern U.
1143 PM CDT Tue Jul 11 2017 Ridge amplification is diminishing with the main trough over Hudson Bay and associated wave extending to the southwest into the Northern Plains. Forecast challenges are the southern extent of the passage of this trough through Kansas and its respective potential for precipitation for the latter part of the week.
With no real drier air to the north anymore that the boundary is gone, we have higher dew points currently and expect more moderated range of overnight lows for tonight generally in the lower to mid 70s.
831 PM EDT Tue Jul 11 2017 A sup-tropical ridge will expand from the central N. , while a surface a trough will remain anchored in the lee of the central and southern Appalachians, through the end of the week. High temperatures today are close to their expected highs in the low 90s. Once again SREF and other short term models not very bullish on fog or low stratus overnight but with last nights observations in mind, would not rule out patchy to areas of fog or low stratus especially in the southwestern counties but at this time forecast soundings do look a little drier in the low levels than last night. Temperatures will continue to go up on Wednesday as the subtropical ridge builds over the Carolinas and thickness values approach 1440.
The forecast area will remain in dry, southwest flow aloft as a result of being sandwiched in between a strong high pressure over the Four Corners region and a like-wise strong low pressure in the Gulf of Alaska.
The region will be caught between high pressure over the Southwest and Low pressure over the Northwest the next couple of days. 850 mb temperatures cool slightly but that would most likely be offset by the slightly weaker flows through the Delta and warmer air in the Bay Area.
With the CU field developing across eastern Colorado this afternoon as the convective inhibition decreases and a few storms already developing over the higher terrain along the front range with weak impulses expected to move east out of the Rockies in the westerly flow aloft, isolated to scattered thunderstorms may move out of eastern Colorado this afternoon and across northwest Kansas and southwest Nebraska this evening. The atmosphere becomes more unstable as afternoon temperatures rise into the 90s to lower 100s and dewpoints rise into the lower to mid 60s.
728 PM EDT Tue Jul 11 2017 High pressure ridging into the area from the western Atlantic will bring warm and humid conditions through the end of the work week. A cold front will stall over the area this weekend, bringing increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms. With the surface boundary across the forecast area and boundaries from thunderstorms could see a few thunderstorms overnight with the highest potential over the eastern Midlands and southern CSRA. Overnight lows will generally be in the lower 70s. Upper ridge attempts to slowly build in from the Atlantic. high pressure off the east coast will try to build slowly westward. Highs will be in the low/mid 90s with overnight lows in the low/mid 70s.
Combination of mid level trough and speed max that moves east providing some right entrance region support, a few of these storms could be quite strong and last well into the evening and even overnight hours in our far nern zones. Cold front dropping south behind this wave this evening into the overnight hours may set the stage for a some stronger storms in Johnson county Wednesday afternoon and evening.
Thunderstorm activity will linger into this evening spreading a bit into the lower elevations with most activity finished by midnight.
952 PM EDT Tue Jul 11 2017 A warm frontal boundary will lift north through Wednesday and precipitation chances will diminish, with hot conditions for mid week. A cold front will approach and then move through the region late this week, bringing additional thunderstorm chances.
Wednesday will feature enhanced warmth and continued humidity with warm advection under flat ridging.
An elongated west-east upper level ridge over the southern conus will persist through the near term. The combination of decreasing stability due to surface heating and perturbations moving east to west along the southerly periphery of the upper ridge axis will result in scattered showers and storms occurring during the afternoon and early evening hours. Low temperatures tonight will be in the lower 70s inland areas, mid 70s along the coastal sections, with upper 70s at the beaches.
Mainly dry, and slightly cooler weather will arrive for the weekend. The lows will be some 5-10 deg warmer than normal. trough in response to strengthening upper level ridge centered over the Four Corners states.
/issued 329 PM CDT Tue Jul 11 2017/ (Tonight and Tuesday) Clear skies and slightly breezy conditions will continue for the remainder of today and tomorrow as upper level high pressure sits over the region. Overnight low temperatures are expected to drop into the lower 70s.
Evening sounding from OHX shows a modestly unstable, albeit dry air mass still in place across Middle Tennessee, even as high pressure slips farther off to the east. This is allowing warmer air and greater moisture to gradually filter into the mid state. VFR flight rules for this TAF cycle as high pressure controls the weather over Middle TN.
This feature brought hot and dry weather to the Ozarks, as readings warmed into the lower 90s.
1218 AM EDT Wed Jul 12 2017 A cold front will cross the region overnight. High pressure will build into the region on Wednesday.
Northerly winds and cooler temperatures are in store for Wednesday behind the departing cool front.
However, as has been the case yesterday and again today, the higher elevations will be favored for the more wetting rains.
Given the high PWATs feeding into the area and a potential for storms to move repeatedly across the same area, flash flooding would be a concern. So, the forecast as of now has little if any rain during the evening hours except in the highway 20 corridor. Later in the week, weather should begin to calm and temperatures should be lower, before a ridge moves into the area for later in the week and the return to warm weather occurs. Wednesday night, convection will either likely be ongoing at 00z or shortly there after as a cold front is moving south through the area.
A gradual warming trend is then likely late in the week and into the upcoming weekend as high pressure builds back toward the West Coast. As mentioned this morning, cooler weather was expected today and that is definitely the case when looking at the 24 hour trend.
1123 PM EDT Tue Jul 11 2017 A cold front will cross the region overnight. High pressure will build into the region on Wednesday.
With dewpoints once again in the low 70s, especially in eastern Kansas a muggy and unpleasant day can be expected.
Southerly winds prevailed in the lowest levels with southwest flow above that and throughout the mid levels. Northeast winds were noted in the highest levels. Showers and storms will become land-based by late morning with the highest coverage during the afternoon hours. Temperatures should also remain seasonal - topping out in the lower 90s most places during the afternoon with morning lows generally in the 70s.
Trough axis lying from O'Neill to Broken Bow with dew points in the mid to upper 60s. Have higher pops over southwest Nebraska this evening with wave rounding upper ridge and interacting with boundary cool front lying across southwest Nebraska. Highs tomorrow cooler than today with the influence of cool front.
530 PM MDT Tue Jul 11 2017 Latest radar trends show isolated thunderstorms continuing over the higher terrain of northern Carbon and Albany counties and crossing the North Laramie Range into Converse County. A few high based storms have formed over the higher terrain in Carbon and Albany Counties but not much in the way of precipitation with these cells.
657 PM CDT Tue Jul 11 2017 Weak warm frontal boundary across northern IL with warm and humid air mass across central IL. Cooler temperatures as low as the upper 70s lingering after the morning thunderstorm complex along I-74 corridor as of 2 p. Heat will then build to the highest levels of the week with highs in the low to mid 90s, highest around the Springfield/Jacksonville area, and dewpoints continuing in the 70s.
High pressure aloft will strengthen toward the weekend bringing warmer weather and increasing monsoon moisture.
714 PM EDT Tue Jul 11 2017 A cold front will push southeast through the region tonight. High pressure will build in from the northwest on Wednesday.
/Issued 359 PM CDT Tue Jul 11 2017/ High pressure remained the dominate feature across the Southern Plains this afternoon with hot and humid conditions continuing over Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas. Breezy southerly winds along with mostly sunny/partly cloudy skies and dewpoints in the low/mid 70s underneath high pressure have allowed for heat index values in the upper 90s to around 105 common across the CWA. Conditions today are not expected to change all that much for Wednesday as the dome of high pressure continues over the region. an isolated thunderstorm potential could be possible within the higher terrain locations.
Evening sounding from OHX shows a modestly unstable, albeit dry air mass still in place across Middle Tennessee, even as high pressure slips farther off to the east. This is allowing warmer air and greater moisture to gradually filter into the mid state.
As the subtropical ridge builds to the north, onshore flow will gradually deepen and increase overnight. Would typically see an increase in maritime shower activity given this pattern; however, drier air in the low- to mid-levels will keep development on the low side. Elevated onshore flow will keep temps noticeably warmer, especially at the immediate coast.
Thunderstorms formed by the nose of the low level jet would likely form right on top of our forecast area tonight while additional thunderstorms could develop late this afternoon over the high plains and these could also move into western zones later tonight.
The lee trough to the northwest will ensure that more southerly winds return through the overnight hours with speeds around 10 to 12 knots. /Issued 356 PM CDT Tue Jul 11 2017/ There will be two areas for possible convective development this afternoon as the ridge of high pressure loosens its grip across North and Central Texas. As will be the story for much of the week, lows tonight will remain in the low to mid 70s, except around the Dallas/Fort Worth metroplex where the heat island effect will keep lows in the upper 70s.
647 PM CDT Tue Jul 11 2017 Ridge amplification is diminishing with the main trough over Hudson Bay and associated wave extending to the southwest into the Northern Plains. Forecast challenges are the southern extent of the passage of this trough through Kansas and its respective potential for precipitation for the latter part of the week.
Our forecast area will be under the the influence of a developing deep- layer ridge tonight.
Cooler air and low level moisture moving south into NE ND on backside of the system. The clouds and cooler air will spread south and graduallly east overnight into Wed AM. Broad upper level trough was over southern Canada. Upper trough will slowly shift east of the area by 12Z Thu. Upper level ridging will commence thereafter over the Rockies. Upper level low pressure system over the area will produce showers over northern MN for Wed. Northerly flow behind the system will pull some cooler air out of Canada limiting high temperatures to around the 70 degree mark.
Broad upper level trough was over southern Canada. Upper trough will slowly shift east of the area by 12Z Thu. Upper level ridging will commence thereafter over the Rockies. Upper level low pressure system over the area will produce showers over northern MN for Wed. Northerly flow behind the system will pull some cooler air out of Canada limiting high temperatures to around the 70 degree mark.
906 PM EDT Tue Jul 11 2017 A cold front will push southeast through the region tonight. High pressure will build in from the northwest on Wednesday.