Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
DRY AND WARMER WEATHER WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE INTERIOR THROUGH THE WEEK. AN UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN WASHINGTON AND IDAHO WILL SLOWLY TRACK EASTWARD TODAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE NEAR 130W BUILDS CLOSER TO THE CALIFORNIA COAST. OVERALL DRY AND WARMER WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE RULE FOR MOST OF THE AREA MOST OF THE TIME THROUGH SAT AS A BROAD FLAT RIDGE HOLDS OVER THE AREA. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT ON BRINGING AN UPPER TROUGH TOWARD THE COAST SUN INTO MON. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS STATIONED JUST OFFSHORE. OTHERWISE A SOUTH, SOUTHWEST WAVE GROUP WILL IMPACT THE WATERS AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES CALIFORNIA AND A NORTHWEST SWELL WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE WEEK.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
A WEAK TROUGH AXIS WILL EXTEND BACK ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA INTO THIS AFTERNOON. THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS THE NORTH.
The old upper trough axis was into Missouri at 08Z with at least one minor wave working its way east into Colorado. The next upper wave meets with the increasing moisture along the High Plains for convection to re-fire there this afternoon. The southwest flow aloft also supports the lee trough and return flow bringing mid to upper 60 dew points back to eastern KS. Most of models develop convection driven by weak mid level impulses and the lack of CIN, although the low level focus is not obvious at this point. There could be a break Thursday night before the next round of precip arrives along with a cold front passage.
1256 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015 WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON CAUSING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY PROVIDING FAIR WEATHER. AND PRIMARY MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS AND ASSOCIATED SFC FRONT PROPAGATION EAST INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. DIURNAL HEATING SHOULD RESULT IN AROUND 1000J/KG CAPE WHILE STILL RESPECTABLE 30-40KT UNIDIRECTIONAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR REMAINS OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF THE UPR LEVEL TROF SUGGESTING SOME POTENTIAL FOR SVR STORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS ACROSS THE SE PORTION OF CWA WHERE LATER FROPA SHOULD ALLOW FOR BETTER INSTABILITY.
INTO THE HIGHER INSTABILITY AIR AND 20-25KT SRLY LOW LEVEL FLOW PRESENT ACROSS THESE AREAS. DIRTY RIDGING ALOFT REMAINS PROGGED TO EXPAND NE FROM E TX ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY/MID-SOUTH/TN VALLEY REGION THURSDAY. AS A CLOSED LOW AND ATTENDENT UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE PACIFIC NW BEGINS TO OPEN UP AND MOVE INTO THE NRN/CNTRL ROCKIES.
UPPER TROUGH AXIS DOWN THROUGH WESTERN MISSOURI INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA WITH CONVECTION FIRING IN MISSOURI THIS MORNING ALONG INTERSTATE 44 CORRIDOR WITH ANOTHER COMPLEX DOWN IN LOUISIANA.
952 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015 A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
1157 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015 A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
SOUTHERLY FLOW OFF THE GULF TO PICK UP AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES.
PESKY UPPER LOW OVER NRN ROCKIES WILL SLOWLY PUSH FURTHER EAST. ANOTHER UPPER LOW WILL APPROACH LATER THIS WEEKEND. BRING INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW AND CLOUDS WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES.
SUBJECTIVE 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH/WEAK LOW HAD SLID INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. WITH RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. AND NEXT UPSTREAM UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER WESTERN ID/NORTHEAST OR/SOUTHEAST WA.
AFTER SHOWERS EXIT THE WV/MD RIDGES. UPPER-LEVEL WAVE PASSES EAST OF THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING WITH BRIEF RIDGING ALOFT RESULTING IN A DRYING TREND FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.
SHORT WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE SW QUADRANT OF THE UPPER LOW WILL PASS OVER THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS ENHANCING THE CONVECTION OVERNIGHT WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING OVER SW IDAHO. THE CENTER OF UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE IDAHO PANHANDLE TODAY. THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN IDAHO TONIGHT AND WESTERN WYOMING ON THURSDAY. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO MOST OF THE AREA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHILE RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SW IDAHO. WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ON THURSDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION BRINGING WARMER AIR ALOFT.
AN UPPER TROUGH TRACKING ACROSS WI THIS MORNING IS BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE AREA. MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST AS SCATTERED SHOWERS SWING EAST THROUGH SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER TROUGH. SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE UPPER TROUGH WILL RESULT IN SCT040-050 CUMULUS FOR THE AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY CLEARING SKIES FOR TNT. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES OUT OF THE REGION.
AS A VIGOROUS UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT. IT SEEMS UNLIKELY THAT THE STATIONARY FRONT/WARM FRONT TO OUR SOUTH WOULD MAKE MUCH NORTHWARD PROGRESS AS INDICATED BY THE NAM. AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AMPLIFIES AND BECOMES A CLOSED LOW OVER MISSISSIPPI AND NORTH ALABAMA. A LOBE OF SUB-FREEZING 850 MB TEMPS SHOULD WRAP AROUND THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. AN ENVELOPE OF FAIRLY DEEP MOISTURE SHOULD PIVOT AROUND THE UPPER LOW BEHIND A MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT.
542 AM CST THU JAN 21 2016 A SHORT WAVE WITH SURFACE REFLECTION TROUGH WILL PUSH ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA TODAY. NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW SATURATED LOW LEVELS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT AREAS/PATCHY FOG AND FLURRIES FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY.
AS AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FOLDS OVER INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
231 AM PST THU JAN 21 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH TODAY.
FREEZING FOG ADVISORY GOES THROUGH 15Z. CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTH TODAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGH. THINGS START GETTING VERY INTERESTING FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LOW TRACKS OVER THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST. MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE INDICATING THAT THERE WILL BE SOME SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE FOR THE TRANSITION ZONE. SO THAT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO MELT FALLING SNOW INTO EITHER SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN AS THE SURFACE COOLS.
HAVE ALSO ADDED THE MENTION OF FREEZING DRIZZLE OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY AS SOME FELL AT BISMARCK EARLIER AND JAMESTOWN REPORTED A LITTLE ICING.
502 AM PST THU JAN 21 2016 WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR THROUGH THURSDAY.
THE UPPER LOW THAT HAS BROUGHT THE SNOW TO THE AREA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH NORTHERN KANSAS TODAY AND INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TONIGHT. AS THE LOW MOVES TO THE EAST. DURING THE AFTERNOON THE MOISTURE DIMINISHES IN THE DENDRITIC LAYER AND THERE COULD BE A LITTLE FREEZING DRIZZLE MIXED WITH THE SNOW AS IT ENDS. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS THE PLAINS TO END THE WEEK AS THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN US AND THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ONSHORE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. EXPECT THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO BE FAIRLY TRANSITORY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE REGION YIELDING A DRY WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
AND CAN/T RULE OUT SOME PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE EARLY THIS MORNING IN THE SOUTH. THERE WILL ALSO BE A COLD FRONT THAT WILL KEEP TEMPS NEARLY STEADY IN MOST AREAS TODAY. IF CLOUDS REMAIN THEN TEMPS WILL BE WARMER.
910 AM CST THU JAN 21 2016 A MID TO UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONE OVER CENTRAL KANSAS AS OF 12Z WILL WEAKEN WHILE DEVELOPING EAST-SOUTHEAST TODAY.
DRY CONDITIONS AND PERIODS OF HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE AREA.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TODAY WITH RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING AS BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS VEER TO THE EAST TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S NORTH TO THE MID 70S CENTRAL AND SOUTH. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER TEXAS WILL INTENSIFY AND MOVE TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TONIGHT WITH AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO AHEAD OF AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT.
354 AM MST THU JAN 21 2016 THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE DOMINATED BY RISING HEIGHTS AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. ONE MORE COOL DAY AHEAD TODAY AS THE CWA CONTINUES TO BE INFLUENCED BY NORTHERLY FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE UPSTREAM UPPER RIDGE. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL BE DIRECTLY OVER THE REGION FOR FRIDAY WHICH WILL BOOST TEMPS GENERALLY INTO THE 40S EAST/30S WEST. WINDS WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT BENEATH THE RIDGE FRIDAY AS WELL.
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 44 39 39 29 / 50 100 100 80 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 42 34 40 29 / 30 100 90 80 OAK RIDGE, TN 42 34 38 30 / 30 100 100 80 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 41 29 33 27 / 10 90 90 90 NC.
643 AM EST THU JAN 21 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE GULF COAST FRIDAY WILL STRENGTHEN INTO A MAJOR STORM AS IT TRACKS UP THE EAST COAST OVER THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. WILL SEE CLOUDS DECREASE OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE LOW MOVES UP THE EAST COAST.
TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT LONGWAVE TROUGH WITH AN EMBEDDED MID LEVEL CLOSED CIRCULATION OVER NE/KS CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST THIS MORNING. MASSIVE WESTERN CONUS RIDGING WILL BE ONGOING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. DEEP LAYER RIDGING AND STRONG WAA WILL SUPPORT WARMER CONDS AND DRY WEATHER OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. WITH MANY LOCATIONS IN THE FOOTHILLS STAYING IN THE 30S OR WARMER MUCH OF THE NIGHT.
708 AM CST THU JAN 21 2016 FOR 12Z TAFS /ISSUED 436 AM CST THU JAN 21 2016/ LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER EASTERN KANSAS. WHILE A FAIRLY STRONG UPPER RIDGE WAS BUILDING IN OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EASTWARD THROUGH SOUTHERN GEORGIA. AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EAST INTO THE ARKLATEX REGION. THE SURFACE CYCLONE WILL BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN AS WELL IN RESPONSE TO THE DEEPENING UPPER LOW. THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD. LAPSE RATES DO STEEPEN OVERNIGHT AS THE THE UPPER LOW APPROACHES AND ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE.
405 AM CST THU JAN 21 2016 CURRENT RADAR/OBS VERY EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWING LIGHT SNOW BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ALONG AN INVERTED TROUGH SITUATED THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL SD. BY THIS EVENING THE INVERTED TROUGH WILL BE EXITING OUR FAR EAST. THE HIGHER POPS/QPF DURING THIS TIME FRAME WILL BE LOCATED THROUGH SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA/THE IOWA GREAT LAKES AREA WHERE THE BETTER UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL BE FOUND. SHARP RIDGING OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL SHIFT INTO THE HIGH PLAINS ON FRIDAY. WITH FRESH SNOWPACK AND A COOLER AIRMASS ARRIVING BEHIND THE EXITING SYSTEM.
THOUGH THERE COULD BE SOME FILTERED SUNSHINE THROUGH THE HIGH CLOUDS TODAY. HOWEVER OUR OWN LOCAL WEATHER EXCITEMENT WILL BE THE ANTICIPATED END TO OUR STREAK OF BELOW AVERAGE AND BELOW FREEZING WEATHER. UPPER RIDGING AND WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL DEVELOP THIS WEEKEND AND EXPECT AT LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE.
UPPER LOW DEVELOPED OVER NORTHERN KANSAS LAST EVENING AND WAS DRIFTING EAST ALONG THE NE/KS BORDER THIS MORNING. ESPECIALLY GIVEN DECREASING FORCING AROUND UPPER LOW. CURRENTLY OVER NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA INTO EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND TIED TO 850MB INVERTED TROUGH.
856 AM EST THU JAN 21 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT NORTHEAST TONIGHT.
N/NWLY FLOW WILL THEN PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT/FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. RELATIVELY MILD TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING WILL HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY COOL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.
A ridge of high pressure is currently in place at the surface, along with neutral upper-level flow. 548 dm 500 mb low over north central KS will weaken a bit as it moves east across northern MO tonight, while a new cutoff upper level low develops/deepens over the lower MS river valley tonight. 00Z forecast models are pretty consistent in deepening low pressure form LA at sunset today ne into northern AL by Friday morning and to the Carolina coast Friday evening.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS BEGINNING TO TAKE SHAPE OVER EASTERN TEXAS. WITH AN EXTENSIVE RIDGE ALIGNED ALONG THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND DOWN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. SCANT MOISTURE BELOW 850 MB COMBINED WITH A DECOUPLED AND LIGHT FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL PRECLUDE ANY PRECIPITATION ALONG THE ISLAND CHAIN. INTERVALS OF CLOUDS AND SUNSHINE COMBINED WITH WINDS SLOWLY TURNING EASTERLY DURING THIS AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW HIGH TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S.
FREEZING FOG WITH VISIBILITIES OF A HALF A MILE OR LESS WILL BE MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-40. FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING IN N CENT AND CENT OK. SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE AND/OR FREEZING RAIN MAY BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING IN PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL OK. FURTHER SOUTH TEMPERATURES ARE ABOVE FREEZING AND ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN THAT WAY TODAY. PATCHY FOG/FREEZING FOG WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PARTS OF THE FA EARLY THIS MORNING BUT IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE BY MID-MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FA.
WARMER AND DRY WITH WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW TODAY INTO FRIDAY.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND QUIET WEATHER RETURN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. A QUIET WEATHER PATTERN WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE PACIFIC COAST MOVES INLAND. THE AXIS OF THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO CROSS OVER ARIZONA ON FRIDAY.
958 AM EST THU JAN 21 2016 THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW HIGH PRESSURE OVER OHIO AND EASTERN INDIANA WILL MOVE ON TO THE EAST.
949 AM EST THU JAN 21 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TODAY WITH RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING AS BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS VEER TO THE EAST TODAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY.
Could see a bit of freezing drizzle today with some weak low level isentropic upglide persisting over the northern and eastern cwfa. A cold Friday will give way to warmer temperatures this weekend as an upper level ridge builds over the area in the wake of the developing eastern CONUS storm.
PRECIP MOVES IN AT TRI EARLY TOMORROW MORNING LIKELY IN THE FORM OF FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE WITH A RETURN TO MVFR. FREEZING RAIN ISN'T A GUARANTEE.
CLOUDY/OVERCAST SKIES WILL CONTINUE WITH ATTENTION TURNING TO THE INCOMING WEAK MID-LEVEL TROUGH FROM SASKATCHEWAN. QUIET PERIOD SETTING UP FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA.
638 AM EST THU JAN 21 2016 AVIATION A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL BRING A FEW VERY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES TODAY.
351 AM MST THU JAN 21 2016 THE PATTERN OF A PERSISTENT RIDGE ALONG THE LEFT COAST BEING TEMPORARILY DISPLACED EASTWARD BY THE PACIFIC JET LOOKS TO CONTINUE FOR THE UPCOMING FORECAST. IN THE SHORT TERM THIS RIDGE WILL BE IN THE TRANSITORY PHASE MOVING FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TO THE HIGH PLAINS TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. HIGH CLOUDINESS WILL ALSO BE A FACTOR AS THIS RIDGE WILL BE DIRTY WITH HIGH CLOUDINESS LIKE THE LAST FEW HAVE BEEN.
340 AM MST THU JAN 21 2016 A warm ridge of high pressure will move over the Northern Rockies today and Friday, bringing about a rapid melt-off of low elevation snow.
There is a good chance for light freezing drizzle to develop as this dry slot moves over and with overnight temperatures in the lower 20s, it could make the morning commute treacherous. Later in the morning and this afternoon, as the mid-level circulation moves into northeastern Kansas and northwestern Missouri, saturation should develop in the ice growth region and we should see light snow and/or freezing drizzle continue. This area of saturation remains over the area through the night and as a result there is a possibility of seeing light freezing drizzle and/or light snow persist. Since models don't depict much/any QPF overnight and soundings move this drier air underneath the higher level saturation, will keep any precipitation out of the forecast overnight.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER TODAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM NEAR 60 NORTH TO AROUND 70 SOUTH.
354 AM MST THU JAN 21 2016 AN UPR TROF WL BE MOVING EAST OVR THE PLAINS STATES TODAY. WHILE AN AN UPR RIDGE MOVES INTO THE GREAT BASIN. WINDS ACRS THE FAR SOUTHEAST PLAINS WL DECREASE TONIGHT AS THE UPR RIDGE MOVES INTO CO FROM THE WEST. WITH THE RIDGE MOVING INTO THE AREA.
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT CONDITIONS WILL BECOME FAVORABLE FOR THE LAKE EFFECT SNOWBELT TO GENERATE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN CWA AS A COLD FRONT TURNS WINDS TO A NORTHERLY DIRECTION. WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING FROM 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE ZERO GIVEN THE ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER.
436 AM CST THU JAN 21 2016 LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER EASTERN KANSAS. WHILE A FAIRLY STRONG UPPER RIDGE WAS BUILDING IN OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EASTWARD THROUGH SOUTHERN GEORGIA. AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EAST INTO THE ARKLATEX REGION. THE SURFACE CYCLONE WILL BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN AS WELL IN RESPONSE TO THE DEEPENING UPPER LOW. THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD. LAPSE RATES DO STEEPEN OVERNIGHT AS THE THE UPPER LOW APPROACHES AND ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE.
640 AM EST THU JAN 21 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT NORTHEAST TONIGHT.
A COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE IN THE LOWER VALLEY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. FOLLOWED BY THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT. RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE WEST COAST AND INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS AND INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND WEST TEXAS TODAY. WITH A COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH THE LOCAL CWA THIS AFTERNOON. BACKED UP BY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE MOVING SOUTH OUT OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND EVEN THE FOUR CORNERS AREA. COLD AIR ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL BRING SOMEWHAT BELOW NORMAL OVERNIGHT LOWS THAT WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOWER/MID 40S OVER MUCH OF THE MID/UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY WITH MID/UPPER 40S CLOSER TO THE COAST. THE RESULT OF REINFORCING HIGH PRESSURE THEN SPREADING OVER THE AREA.
755 AM EST THU JAN 21 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRIER WEATHER TODAY THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY. BUT WILL STUBBORNLY REFUSE TO EJECT TO THE NORTHEAST UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS.
A warm ridge of high pressure will move over the Northern Rockies today and Friday, bringing about a rapid melt-off of low elevation snow.
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
LIGHT SNOW WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST WITH INCREASING SUBSIDENCE/DEEP LAYER ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID/UPPER TROUGH AS IT SHEARS EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHEAST KS. A MID/UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO TRANSLATE EASTWARD ACROSS THE ROCKIES ON FRIDAY.
529 AM CST THU JAN 21 2016 CURRENT RADAR/OBS VERY EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWING LIGHT SNOW BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ALONG AN INVERTED TROUGH SITUATED THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL SD. BY THIS EVENING THE INVERTED TROUGH WILL BE EXITING OUR FAR EAST. THE HIGHER POPS/QPF DURING THIS TIME FRAME WILL BE LOCATED THROUGH SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA/THE IOWA GREAT LAKES AREA WHERE THE BETTER UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL BE FOUND. SHARP RIDGING OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL SHIFT INTO THE HIGH PLAINS ON FRIDAY. WITH FRESH SNOWPACK AND A COOLER AIRMASS ARRIVING BEHIND THE EXITING SYSTEM.
LAST NIGHT'S MID-LEVEL RAOB ANALYSIS REVEALS FALLING HEIGHTS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO A CONSOLIDATING SHORT WAVE TROUGH EXITING THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS. THE RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES HAS FRACTURED DUE TO A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN. DEWPOINTS HAVE MODERATED INTO THE UPPER 50S WHILE TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOWER 60S.
MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUD SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE IS MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH THE REGION AS OF 3 AM MST. MAY SEE LIGHT SNOW IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF SOUTHEAST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST IDAHO WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE BEFORE SUNSET TONIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT TRANSITIONS OUT OF THE REGION. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL BE TO THE REGION/S EAST AND WILL SEE A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE AND THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
349 AM PST THU JAN 21 2016 WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR THROUGH THURSDAY.
If any precipitation does occur in that part of the forecast area today, it's just as likely to be in the form of drizzle and/or freezing drizzle as it is rain and/or snow due to relatively dry air aloft. Low level temperatures will be warm enough that precipitation should fall as liquid for most of the event, except for northwest Arkansas and in the higher elevations of southeast Oklahoma. Ridging will build into the central United States this weekend on the heels of this system, leading to dry conditions, decreased cloudiness, and warmer temperatures.
315 AM PST THU JAN 21 2016 WARMER TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT SANTA ANA WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST TODAY AND MOVING ACROSS MONTANA AND WYOMING FRIDAY. ENERGY FLOWS INTO THIS TROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE IT IS KICKED EASTWARD FRIDAY NIGHT. MODELS PROGGING A HINT OF SURFACE RIDGING OVER WESTERN IDAHO TODAY SO SUSPECT THAT BEST PRESSURE GRADIENT ORIENTATION FOR GAP FLOW WINDS WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL THIS EVENING.
602 AM EST THU JAN 21 2016 THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW HIGH PRESSURE OVER OHIO AND EASTERN INDIANA WILL MOVE ON TO THE EAST.
524 AM CST THU JAN 21 2016 COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH ALL THREE TERMINALS WITH GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED TODAY. /ISSUED 232 AM CST THU JAN 21 2016/ COLD FRONT IS MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH THE CWFA THIS MORNING WITH SOME VIRGA ACTIVITY TO THE SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. BI-CENTRIC TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TODAY LEAVING NORTHERLY FLOW IN ITS WAKE. A FAIRLY STRONG 800 WIND MAX IS ANTICIPATED WITH THE HIGHEST SPEEDS ACROSS THE SE PANHANDLE AND ROLLING PLAINS. AFTER THE WINDY AND COOLER CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR TODAY. A QUIETER AND WARMER TREND WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY THRU THE WEEKEND. AS AN AMPLIFIED UA RIDGE TRANSLATES ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS.
1031 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND AN INLAND TROUGH WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEK. TYPICAL OFFSHORE HIGH/INLAND TROF SFC PATTERN WILL PREVAIL BUT UPR LOW WILL CONTINUE MOVING TO NE WITH MORE SHRT WV ENERGY AFFECTING ERN NC TODAY AND WILL CONT 30-50 POPS AREAWIDE. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL LIFT OUT THE AREA WITH UPPER HEIGHTS RISING AND A NORMAL DIURNAL CONVECTIVE PATTERN WITH LOW CHANCE INLAND AND SLIGHT CHANCE COAST. TEMPERATURES RISE TO THE LOWER 90S AWAY FROM THE COAST WITH MUGGY MID 70S AT NIGHT.
1049 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015 WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING. /ISSUED 500 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015/ FAIR TO PARTLY CLOUDY NORTHWEST WITH LOW TO MID OR FEW UPPER 70S WEST WITH COOLER UPPER 60S FAR EAST ALONG WITH LOWER DEW POINTS.
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND ISO-NUM TSRA TO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AFTER 21Z.
933 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015 AN UPPER LOW OVER SHIFTS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY NORTHEAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST THROUGH TONIGHT WHILE WEAKENING.
THE COOLER AND FRESHER AIR SHOULD PERSIST MUCH OF TODAY. THE REGION WILL BE UNDER AN UPPER TROUGH TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION MON NIGHT/TUESDAY.
DRIER AIR BUILDING IN BEHIND DEPARTING UPPER LOW SHOULD KEEP SITES VFR TODAY.
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ALONG THE I-95 MID-UPPER LONG WAVE TROUGHING CONTINUES DOWN THE EASTERN U. WITH NE FL/SE GA JUST EAST OF THE BASE OF THIS TROF AND THIS WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE STORM ACTIVITY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. 65 RANGE AND SLIGHTLY WARMER ALOFT AT 500 MB IN THE -8C TO -10C RANGE. BUT THESE VALUES ARE STILL COOLER THAN AVERAGE FOR EARLY JULY AND WITH FULL SOLAR HEATING TODAY. STILL EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO REACH INTO THE LOWER 90S AND WILL STILL MAKE FOR A RATHER UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE.
724 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST BRINGING FAIR CONDITIONS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION TODAY INTO TUESDAY.