Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
(This evening through Friday) With a strong upper level ridge still overhead allowing for dry, northwest upper level flow and overall high pressure dominating the area, the forecast for the short term remains dry for West Central Texas. Dew points will be on the rise early on Friday as the low level southerly flow increases, bringing with it some more gulf moisture. With a modestly strong 850 thermal ridge skirting our western counties, highs on Friday will be the in the mid to upper 80s areawide.
1207 PM EDT Thu May 6 2021 Low pressure will exit across the Maritimes today.
Deep-layer flow behind the front and associated upper trough will advect more dry air, paving the way for continued clearing skies and lowering humidity through the remainder of the period.
Breezy southerly flow will return from west to east as high pressure settles south and east of the region tonight. As morning storms move eastward during the day, we think that capping may keep things quiet through the remainder of the afternoon but it'll be hard to rule out an isolated or widely scattered storm or two along an outflow boundary as low level moisture continues to slowly increase through the day although with mid/upper ridging building into the region, storm coverage should remain rather limited. The elevated signal Friday night doesn't look nearly as good as the previous night across our forecast area but we could still see some isolated storm activity across southern Kansas where a diffuse LLJ is progged while the higher probabilities are expected to remain over far eastern KS into MO.
Lows tonight will range from the lower 60s in the north to upper 60s south. Lows Friday night will fall into the lower 70s across much of Deep South Texas under partly to mostly clear skies.
TFJ Upper ridge continues to build across the northern Rockies. This will bring warmer and dry conditions into eastern Montana today. While relative humidity will be dropping today, winds are expected to remain fairly light as high pressure moves over the northern plains. By Friday the high will shift east and lee trof develop along the front range. By Friday night a closed upper low moves into the northern Rockies with a lee low over Wyoming. Trof extending north across Montana providing lift for precipitation over central Montana by evening, then spreading east overnight. Wet conditions continue to look promising for the weekend with the very slow moving upper low. All told, precipitation amounts could range between a tenth of an inch and three quarters of an inch, but very high uncertainty continues in terms of where the highest totals will occur.
Meanwhile, back across the Central Plains the next high pressure is swinging southeast. Visible satellite continues to show mainly fair weather cu, concentrated across the Lower Keys mainly. Temperatures are currently in the mid to upper 80s with dew points in the lower to mid 70s, keeping things muggy.
Coastal areas remain on the cooler given the clouds. Despite the inland sunshine the change in airmass associated with the approaching front has also led to cooler temperatures too - in some cases 10-15 degrees cooler this afternoon. For tonight, the cold front will sweep through the region mixing the stratus deck. Upper level high pressure will build over the EPac Friday and this weekend.
1250 PM EDT Thu May 6 2021 Below average temperature is expected through the weekend with another chance of rain tonight with a crossing cold front. Temperature moderation toward average values are expected tonight, supported by increased cloud cover and return swly flow ahead of an encroaching cold front. This should also increase precipitation chances to categorical PoPs from west to east, generally after 9 PM this evening with the progression of the cold front. Poor lapse rates and unfavorable timing should hamper instability as the cold front crosses, thus no thunder is anticipated. Showers should be ongoing early Friday as the cold front continues its trek across the forecast area, with sfc nwly flow reinforcing cooler air in its wake. As such, below average temperature is expected once more, with daytime high temperature in the low to mid 50s.
344 PM EDT Thu May 6 2021 High pressure builds into the area tonight and Friday with low pressure expected to track well south and east of the area over the weekend.
Meanwhile, the main flow pattern over the region for the short term will favor ridging aloft.
1143 AM MDT Thu May 6 2021 The high amplitude upper ridge over the western U. moves over the Rockies late this afternoon and flattens somewhat as it moves over the High Plains region on Friday with the approach of an upper low center in the Pacific Northwest with a trough extending into the southwest U. The low center stalls over the U.
There will be some warm advection and the low level jet increases toward morning.
1154 AM EDT Thu May 6 2021 Below average temperature is expected through the weekend with another chance of rain tonight with a crossing cold front. Temperature moderation toward average values are expected tonight, supported by increased cloud cover and return swly flow ahead of an encroaching cold front. This should also increase precipitation chances to categorical PoPs from west to east, generally after 9 PM this evening with the progression of the cold front. Poor lapse rates and unfavorable timing should hamper instability as the cold front crosses, thus no thunder is anticipated. Showers should be ongoing early Friday as the cold front continues its trek across the forecast area, with sfc nwly flow reinforcing cooler air in its wake. As such, below average temperature is expected once more, with daytime high temperature in the low to mid 50s.
221 PM EDT Thu May 6 2021 Broad troughing remains aloft over much of the eastern part of the U. this afternoon as a weak cold front moves over the Florida peninsula.
Falling temperatures tonight and winds diminishing as high pressure builds into the area. A bit more moisture into southeastern ND Friday night as the next upper trough over MT grows closer.
235 PM EDT Thu May 6 2021 A low pressure system will cross the Ohio Valley tonight and the Mid Atlantic region on Friday, which will bring showers and even cooler temperatures.
Diegan Chattanooga Airport, TN 48 68 48 69 54 / 20 0 0 30 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 47 64 47 64 51 / 30 10 0 30 20 Oak Ridge, TN 46 64 45 64 50 / 20 0 10 30 20 Tri Cities Airport, TN 44 59 42 61 48 / 40 40 10 20 30.
233 PM CDT Thu May 6 2021 Weak cold front is currently draped across north central AR, and extends back into western AR/southeast OK.
A few radar echoes have developed along and behind a southward advancing cold front. Flow will turn southeasterly ahead of an approaching trough.
This is due to the deep layer of dry air in the lower levels. However, as the cold front moves across the area late this evening, the lower levels are expected to moisten and precip will start reaching the sfc. In addition, a dusting of snow will be possible in the higher elevations of Cook County and along the Penokee Range in Iron County. Following the cold front tonight, a quiet period will settle over the CWA.
No changes were needed for the eve update as temperature moderation toward average values is underway via warm, moist advection on swly flow ahead of an encroaching cold front. This will also increase precipitation chance to categorical numbers from west to east, generally after 9 PM this evening with the progression of the cold front. Poor lapse rates and unfavorable timing should hamper instability as the cold front crosses, thus no thunder is anticipated. Showers should be ongoing early Friday as the cold front continues its trek across the forecast area, with sfc nwly flow reinforcing cooler air in its wake. As such, sub-average temperature is expected once more, with daytime high temperature in the low to mid 50s.
Northwest winds gusting up to 30 mph and partly sunny skies has kept afternoon temperatures on the cooler than normal side, in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Tonight: A weak cold front moves southward across the cwa late tonight and may be acccompanied by isolated showers or sprinkles.
/issued 1038 AM CDT Thu May 6 2021/ A diffuse cloud deck associated with a pre-frontal trough continues to diminish across the Red River into the Ark-La-Tex this morning.
A weak cold front has moved through which shifted winds out of the N, but winds have already started veering back to southeasterly. /issued 330 AM CDT Thu May 6 2021/ Upper ridging is centered over Arizona and New Mexico, and a broad upper trough is over the eastern half of the country. The upper ridge becomes centered over Texas on Friday with temperatures warming up a little from the previous day.
335 PM EDT Thu May 6 2021 Massive upper level low/trough over Eastern North America this afternoon will be slow to break down, assuring below normal temperatures through the weekend and into early next. Temperatures flirting with the freezing mark over the next several days during the late night hours, ultimately dependent on cloud cover. Local probabilistic guidance suggest diurnal capes of 250 J/KG, with the bulk of the cape in the -10 to -20 C layer, supportive of embedded thunderstorms during afternoon/early evening hours, producing very small hail with the low freezing levels. Clearing skies Friday Night will bring the potential for freezing temperatures and frost, but clouds may persist just long enough with enough wind to keep min temps mostly at or above 32 degrees.
348 PM EDT Thu May 6 2021 Weak high pressure moves offshore tonight into Friday.
618 PM EDT Thu May 6 2021 High pressure builds into the area tonight and Friday with low pressure expected to track well south and east of the area over the weekend.
734 PM EDT Thu May 6 2021 Weak high pressure moves offshore tonight into Friday.
Forecast on track with cold front to push through the remainder of NE FL and SE of the region after midnight with clear skies by sunrise. On Friday, low pressure development over the Carolinas will drag a dry secondary cold frontal passage through the region and this will produce breezy Northwest winds at 15 to 20 mph with gusts to 30 mph at times through the afternoon hours. Precipitation ahead of cold front will move southeast of area this afternoon, with the cold front itself to the southeast of area by midnight. High pressure will build from the west northwest Tonight through Friday. Secondary troughing to the northeast on Friday will keep winds somewhat gusty.
A cold front will yield light precipitation over Del Norte and northern Humboldt Counties this evening, as well as relatively cool temperatures across the interior through Friday.
Dry high pressure will build across the area over the weekend.
For 00Z Aviation discussion below High pressure was located over the Central Plains this afternoon with an area of low pressure near Chicago. A trough extended northward from this low into eastern Wisconsin and Upper Michigan. A weak cold front/trough was observed over northern North Dakota into western Ontario to an area of low pressure over southern Hudson Bay. As the front clears the region from north to south late this evening, skies are expected to quickly clear as high pressure begins to build in behind the front. High pressure will continue to build across the Upper Midwest for Friday and Friday night.
658 PM CDT Thu May 6 2021 Skies are expected to clear overnight while temperatures fall into the lower 40s.
1040 PM EDT Thu May 6 2021 Currently - The combination of a mid latitude trough moving off the Atlantic Coast and day time heating over Florida has resulted in a col and light and variable flow in and around the Keys. This weak flow extends upwards through 850 mb before a morphing into a weak ridge at 700 mb. Surface temperatures are slowly falling through the lower 80s with dew points in the lower 70s. Short Term Update - The mid latitude trough will continue to expand off the Atlantic coast through the overnight period. Meanwhile, high pressure centered over the plains will continue to spread southeastwards through the Gulf of Mexico.
/issued 234 PM CDT Thu May 6 2021/ Skies will remain clear this afternoon and tonight as the upper- level ridge axis, which is was near the Four Corners region at 1830Z, moves closer to the area. As the upper-level ridge axis moves east over the Panhandles, it is expected to flatten some.
725 PM EDT Thu May 6 2021 A low pressure system will cross the Ohio Valley tonight and the Mid Atlantic region on Friday, which will bring showers and even cooler temperatures.
442 PM PDT Thu May 6 2021 A Blowing Dust Advisory was issued for the Lower Columbia Basin of Washington through 10 pm this evening.
310 PM MDT Thu May 6 2021 Ridging will slide east tonight ahead of a deep through that will move into the area bringing thunderstorms for Friday.
527 PM MDT Thu May 6 2021 Latest analysis shows an upper ridge over the region with dry high pressure at the surface. The upper trough over the Pacific Northwest will send an initial impulse into the western Dakotas on Friday night.
A few lightning strikes were noted in eastern Oregon late this afternoon from weak convection ahead of a surface cold front.
527 PM MDT Thu May 6 2021 An amplified ridge is sitting over the Great Basin to the Yukon this afternoon with a fairly strong downstream blocking low over the Hudson Bay region. This upstream system will squeeze the ridge up against the downstream block over the next 24-36 hours.
842 PM EDT Thu May 6 2021 A few showers continue to develop and move quickly east southeast across the area early this evening ahead of the cold front. The front will move across the region late tonight and early Friday with high pressure building in to start the weekend. Breezy northwest winds will develop in the afternoon bringing some refreshingly cooler and much drier air into the region.
A low pressure system brings unsettled weather to the region through tomorrow. Friday into the weekend will see cooler conditions.
635 PM CDT Thu May 6 2021 (This evening through Friday) With a strong upper level ridge still overhead allowing for dry, northwest upper level flow and overall high pressure dominating the area, the forecast for the short term remains dry for West Central Texas. Dew points will be on the rise early on Friday as the low level southerly flow increases, bringing with it some more gulf moisture. With a modestly strong 850 thermal ridge skirting our western counties, highs on Friday will be the in the mid to upper 80s areawide.
643 PM CDT Thu May 6 2021 A cold front continues to move through southern Arkansas. Expect winds to dissipate after dark and high pressure will build overnight.
922 PM CDT Thu May 6 2021 After a busy afternoon and evening with the severe storms that rolled through the region, a cooler, drier air mass is moving in from the NW. Temperatures have fallen into the low to mid 50s and will continue to slowly fall throughout the night into the 40s, thanks to the northerly flow and cool air advection taking place. Another cool night in store with lows dropping back into the lower to mid 40s behind the front towards daybreak. Fairly decent warm air advection should allow dewpoints to climb and lows to only drop into the mid upper 40s/lower 50s west of the I-65 corridor and cloud cover should help keep temperatures warmer there as well. Lows there will likely drop into the lower to mid 40s.
/GG/ Weak high pressure is building into the center portion of the country, but a quick wave moving through will be dragging a front into the northwest later this evening.
A cold front will pass through the local area overnight tonight, veering winds westerly, then northerly into Friday. Winds veering westerly, then northwesterly into Friday morning as a cold front pushes through the area.
Northwest winds gusting up to 30 mph and partly sunny skies has kept afternoon temperatures on the cooler than normal side, in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Tonight: A weak cold front moves southward across the cwa late tonight and may be accompanied by isolated showers or sprinkles.
Northwest flow aloft and surface ridging/weak boundary layer flow will keep moisture recovery on the slow side and temperatures tonight and Friday will be a little cooler than normal with little in the way of additional rain chances.
Approaching cold front now on doorstep of FA, setting off active convection, strong-severe, across FA along/ahead of its approach. With freezing level near -8C and -20C level roughly 10K higher, large hail also possible along with damaging wind gusts. These will begin moderating again by tmrw night as a warm frontal boundary returns to the area, bringing the next chance of rain.
Across the whole CWA the Gila River Valley from Safford to Bylas has the highest probabilities to hit 100 with probabilities ranging from 20-80 percent this afternoon. Besides the high temperatures expect cumulus clouds mainly east of Tucson with a few small buildups possible over the higher terrain. Friday the ridge that's currently in place begins to shove off to the east as a trough begins to move in.
The arrival of a vigorous cold front later this afternoon and evening will bring gusty winds and the chance for evening showers and possibly a few thunderstorms. Friday will be cooler and breezy, and these cooler conditions will persist into the weekend. Soon, the cold front is expected to cross the Cascades around 3-4pm and slowly transverse the region towards Idaho throughout the evening, reaching the Idaho- Washington border around 6-8pm. With the surface cold front and wind shift, some rain showers and thunderstorms are expected to bubble up. Friday: Temperatures will be a lot cooler following Thursday's frontal passage.
956 PM EDT Thu May 6 2021 High pressure builds into the area tonight and Friday with low pressure expected to track well south and east of the area over the weekend.
815 PM EDT Thu May 6 2021 Weak high pressure will move east through Friday.
The arrival of a vigorous cold front later this afternoon and evening will bring gusty winds and the chance for evening showers and possibly a few thunderstorms. Friday will be cooler and breezy, and these cooler conditions will persist into the weekend. Soon, the cold front is expected to cross the Cascades around 3-4pm and slowly transverse the region towards Idaho throughout the evening, reaching the Idaho- Washington border around 6-8pm. Lagging a couple of hours behind the surface cold front and wind shift, the mid level cold front will bring some rain showers and thunderstorms. Friday: Temperatures will be a lot cooler following Thursday's frontal passage.
With high pressure becoming better centered over the SE CONUS, another dry and arguably pleasant day expected for Friday. /issued 343 PM CDT Thu May 6 2021/ High pressure is dominating the weather across the northern gulf coast this afternoon between a cold front over the north gulf and another boundary over the plains. The ridge will gradually shift east through Friday with the flow locally becoming more onshore by Friday afternoon.
/Issued 233 PM CDT Thu May 6 2021/ Weak cold front is currently draped across north central AR, and extends back into western AR/southeast OK.
/issued 343 PM CDT Thu May 6 2021/ High pressure is dominating the weather across the northern gulf coast this afternoon between a cold front over the north gulf and another boundary over the plains. The ridge will gradually shift east through Friday with the flow locally becoming more onshore by Friday afternoon.
The ridge will be southeast of the area by late Friday morning as southerly return flow begins to strengthen across Oklahoma. Strong isentropic lift and moistening above 850 mb along the nose of the low-level jet will help a band of showers develop from central KS southward into northern OK after 12Z. /Issued 233 PM CDT Thu May 6 2021/ Weak cold front is currently draped across north central AR, and extends back into western AR/southeast OK.
1032 PM EDT Thu May 6 2021 Weak high pressure will move east through Friday.
1035 PM MDT Thu May 6 2021 Latest analysis shows an upper ridge over the region with dry high pressure at the surface. The upper trough over the Pacific Northwest will send an initial impulse into the western Dakotas on Friday night.
356 AM EDT Fri May 7 2021 Temperatures across the island chain mostly range from near 80 degrees to the lower 80s. Luckily, we will have a little bit of a reprieve from these scorching temperatures thanks to a late season cold front pushing through this morning. The aforementioned late season cold front will bring dewpoints down into the lower to mid 60s, which will feel much nicer than the lower to mid 70 dewpoints we have been feeling this past week.
Ample sunshine along with a warming low level thermal ridge will allow temperatures to warm to near 90 degrees across the area, especially west of an Abilene to Sonora line. Tonight with moisture increasing, and southerly winds, we can expect lows to be a few degrees warmer than normal in the lower 60s.
Latest CAMs continue to suggest further drying across the southern valley with only very light/iso showers north of I40 adjacent to the KY/VA lines beneath the better upper forcing tied to the trough itself.
A long-wave trough over the eastern-third of the U. High pressure drops in from Canada tonight which provides a significant risk for frost; calm winds, clear skies, and a low dew point depression.
At 03Z a cold front was moving through southeast Oregon and will reach the ID/OR border by 05Z, advancing to a McCall-Boise line by 07Z and reaching the Twin Falls area around 10Z tonight.
Temperatures were chilly in the lower to middle 40s, with likely some 30s in area valleys. High amplitude upper ridge axis was located over the Rockies early this morning with strong northwest flow continuing aloft over the central U. Some showers/thunderstorms may develop this morning to the west on the western side of the ridge and then shift east across western portions of the area by mid to late morning. The additional cloud cover and precipitation chances will keep temperatures in the west cooler than the east today with highs from the mid 60s to low 70s.
252 AM MDT Fri May 7 2021 Current surface map shows high pressure slipping into the eastern Dakotas/Minnesota as upper level ridge shifts into the Northern Plains. Upper level ridge breaks down tonight with upper trough digging into the northern Rockies.
1251 AM EDT Fri May 7 2021 Weak high pressure will move east through Friday.
Later today, convection is expected to develop to our west across the high plains.
As high pressure continues to shift east Friday, winds will turn SE and increase to around 6 and 12 KTS.
For 06Z Aviation discussion below High pressure was located over the Central Plains this afternoon with an area of low pressure near Chicago. A trough extended northward from this low into eastern Wisconsin and Upper Michigan. A weak cold front/trough was observed over northern North Dakota into western Ontario to an area of low pressure over southern Hudson Bay. As the front clears the region from north to south late this evening, skies are expected to quickly clear as high pressure begins to build in behind the front. High pressure will continue to build across the Upper Midwest for Friday and Friday night.
High pressure moves in later this morning and will bring plenty of sunshine to the area over the next 36 hours.
Boundary layer winds will begin to veer more south/southwesterly and increase in speed by later this morning, in response to the H50 ridge axis pivoting east during the day. Temperatures will be warmer than yesterday with the south/southwest winds and the ridge peaking ridge overhead. Showers and thunderstorms will initiate and attempt to move off the New Mexico mountains later this afternoon and likely struggle to sustain themselves as they mover east across the higher terrain of eastern New Mexico.
150 AM EDT Fri May 7 2021 A cold front will move through overnight.
1134 PM MDT Thu May 6 2021 An amplified ridge is sitting over the Great Basin to the Yukon this afternoon with a fairly strong downstream blocking low over the Hudson Bay region. This upstream system will squeeze the ridge up against the downstream block over the next 24-36 hours.