Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
The highest rain chances (PoP 30 percent) over land remain along the coast and across western Lake county through midnight. Warm conditions once again tonight, with overnight lows in the low to mid 70s, except upper 70s across the southern Treasure Coast. (Previous Discussion) Higher moisture lingering over the local area, as the Atlantic ridge axis rebuilds over southern Florida through the day. Highs reaching the lower 90s along the coast and mid 90s inland.
643 PM MDT Sun Jul 17 2022 For tonight, ridge of high pressure centered in the Four Corners region with a dry and subsident west/northwesterly flow aloft. Subtropical moisture is expected to advect back around the ridge and into western CO Monday afternoon. Upper level ridge remains dominate over the four corners.
/issued 232 PM CDT Sun Jul 17 2022/ A surface boundary continues to slowly wash out near our northern CWA border as high pressure remains in control of the synoptic scale weather picture.
A deepening trough over the Ohio Valley should increase the flow aloft out of the SW later tonight, potentially allowing for the an increase in mainly high level cloud cover. The southwest flow and any cloud cover will keep temperatures seasonably mild tonight, with lows in the lower 70s. Troughing over the eastern US with increasing southwesterly flow over eastern Georgia and the Carolinas. The upper trough will shift east overnight and moisture will linger over the area.
705 PM EDT Sun Jul 17 2022 Low pressure will drift into the Ohio Valley tonight and bring a cold front closer to the Mid Atlantic by late Monday.
Temperatures will cool by 10-15 degrees across the region tomorrow as an upper level low moves to our northwest. Breezy winds and dry conditions are expected tomorrow afternoon with passage of the upper level low to our north.
1013 PM EDT Sun Jul 17 2022 Currently - A surface through lower level Atlantic ridge extends west southwestward across Florida into the Gulf of Mexico. Short Term Update - Surface through lower level ridging will continue to dominate local weather through the overnight period. Rain chances will be slight at best tonight due to the weak persisting through much of the night and the proximity of the ridge axis. Expect overnight lows to fall broadly in the lower 80s with dew points holding steady in the mid 70s. A ridge across Florida will maintain southeasterly breezes across Keys waters through the overnight.
A consistent signal in the models for several days now is for the low level thermal ridge to quickly expand back across the south central U.
Another hot afternoon across the Valley is being seen today with highs similar to those yesterday, perhaps a degree or two cooler in some locations. Interior NorCal remains between the Four Corners high and a compact upper low which is expected to move inland over the PacNW today. High pressure builds back over the area slightly tomorrow into mid-week with little change to temperatures besides a few degrees expected. Overnight lows will be warm in the thermal belt with cooler temperatures in the southern Sacramento and northern San Joaquin Valleys.
220 PM PDT Sun Jul 17 2022 Strong high pressure over the Southwest will continue to bring hot summer weather inland this week while sea breezes and a shallow marine layer keep coastal areas much cooler.
615 PM CDT Sun Jul 17 2022 The RAP model shows an 18C-20C h700mb thermal ridge building into wrn Nebraska Monday afternoon. The forecast is a compromise between the warmer/faster GFS which tracks the sfc across SD farther east and the slower/cooler HRRR and RAP models which keep the low farther west.
623 PM CDT Sun Jul 17 2022 (Tonight) An upper-trough will continue to drop southeast from the lower Ohio Valley into the Mid South overnight, with its associated cold front approaching the Tennessee Valley by early Monday morning. The added cloud cover and low-level moisture content should help make for a mild night with lows in the low to mid 70s once again.
Remainder of fcst is in good shape with lows still expected to be generally in the lower 70s. The trough axis is still well northwest of the area and another lobe of energy will bring another wave of showers and storms into the area late in the evening and past midnight. Given the rain, clouds, and troughing on Monday, it looks like BNA's 90 degree streak is going to come to an end. The trough axis will finally move east of the area Monday night shutting off rain chances from west to east.
301 PM MDT Sun Jul 17 2022 For tonight, ridge of high pressure centered in the Four Corners region with a dry and subsident west/northwesterly flow aloft. Subtropical moisture is expected to advect back around the ridge and into western CO Monday afternoon. Upper level ridge remains dominate over the four corners.
For tonight, ridge of high pressure centered in the Four Corners region with a dry and subsident west/northwesterly flow aloft. Subtropical moisture is expected to advect back around the ridge and into western CO Monday afternoon. Upper level ridge remains dominate over the four corners.
639 PM CDT Sun Jul 17 2022 Main forecast issue will be potential for several days of hot and dry weather as an upper high remains centered over the desert southwest. Overall trend for the next few periods will be warming and remaining dry as the western ridge extending from the four corners region rotates into the Plains. The upper ridge to the west persists as a mid-level trough rounds the ridge into the northern Plains.
All the storms stayed sub-severe with the highest winds reported around 30-40 mph. High pressure ridging across southern Florida will keep a SSE through SSW wind flow around 10-15 knots over the gulf waters through the first part of the week.
An upper level low will move across the region tonight, with lingering clouds and some showers across the area.
1000 PM EDT Sun Jul 17 2022 A cold front will approach the Mid Atlantic on Monday and provide showers and thunderstorms.
Those winds are expected to be particularly strong from the higher elevations of the Central Mntns east into the Arco Desert, Upper Snake Plain, and Clark County region as the pressure gradient tightens in association with a low moving across the Idaho panhandle into MT, and a WIND ADVISORY has been issued for these areas of our CWA. Expect slightly cooler highs in the 85-95 range.
312 AM EDT Mon Jul 18 2022 Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue to move across the area as a low pressure system lifts across the Great Lakes.
346 AM EDT Mon Jul 18 2022 Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue to move across the area as a low pressure system lifts across the Great Lakes.
CAMs have been consistent in depicting storms continuing southeast into overnight, in tandem with a 500mb trof dropping into the lower Ohio Valley and Midsouth. Storms will continue to present a marginal severe threat for wind, but the severe threat should gradually lessen as outflow tends to outrun storm motion and speed of the midlevel trof.
Discussion: The upper trough with its axis to our west to start will shift east during the period, as a weak cold front currently near the Ohio River slowly sags southeast before stalling to our north. Convection will spread across the area today as the upper trough edges east. The tall skinny CAPE profiles, high freezing levels, and abundant moisture all suggest heavy rainfall/localized flooding will be a threat and this will be mentioned in the HWO. The showers/storms will wane overnight as deep layer drying builds in, but there may be at least a few showers lingering through the night with the upper trough sitting over us.
Will cancel advisory along the Canadian Border where highs will be in the lower to mid 90s. Upper low will move east along the MT/Canada border this afternoon and tonight. A cold front will move across NE Montana in the late afternoon and early evening. Strong west to NW wind are expected behind the cold front tonight and Tuesday. A second round of showers and thunderstorms are possible late tonight and Tuesday morning mainly in the north as the wrap around precipitation with the upper low moves through the area.
Afternoon and evening winds have the potential to gust into the lower 20s. Main forecast issue will be potential for several days of hot and dry weather as an upper high remains centered over the desert southwest. Overall trend for the next few periods will be warming and remaining dry as the western ridge extending from the four corners region rotates into the Plains. The upper ridge to the west persists as a mid-level trough rounds the ridge into the northern Plains. Cold front passes through Tuesday night, and has been consistently forecast.
Dewpoints have recovered into the lower 70s behind the boundary and will continue to be a factor today along with building heights to create heat index values in excess of 105 degrees once again generally south of I-40. North of the boundary, sufficient surface ridging will occur to keep temperatures a few degrees cooler than yesterday but still should eclipse the century mark in some areas across Green Country.
A trough over the eastern CONUS is forecast to lift northeastward while leaving some troughing behind across the area Monday night into Tuesday.
118 AM PDT Mon Jul 18 2022 Dangerous heat is expected in the lower elevations of Central California today.
07Z water vapor imagery showed the upper ridge centered over the NM/CO boarder with nearly meridional flow over the central plains. Surface ridging had moving into north central KS with calm winds being reported by more sites over the last few hours.
A roughly 597dm ridge was centered over northwestern New Mexico early Monday morning with little movement expected in the next 24 hours or so.
/issued 232 PM CDT Sun Jul 17 2022/ A surface boundary continues to slowly wash out near our northern CWA border as high pressure remains in control of the synoptic scale weather picture. The upper level ridge situated over the Four Corners will continue to keep daytime high temperatures over 100 degrees until later this week when upper air heights under the high will begin to gradually decrease. As these features move over the ridge during the middle of this week into the weekend, the persistent upper level high will begin to flatten and expand zonally across the southern United States.
400 AM EDT Mon Jul 18 2022 A long wave trough near the Great lakes will lift northeast to northern New England by this evening before the flow will split with short wave slowly moving across eastern TN into the Carolinas tomorrow. This system will push a cold front just north of northern Georgia by this evening where it will hang up and begin to wash out. High pressure should begin building in from the west for the weekend. A lee trough will likely persist for much of the week.
222 AM MDT Mon Jul 18 2022 07z surface analysis had trough from eastern MT to central WY. Pressure falls ahead of trough supporting gusty southerly winds at times over northeast WY/northern slopes of the Black Hills. Water vapour loop had upper ridge over the northern Plains with upper low spinning over WA. Effect of upper low main short-term forecast.
(Today and tonight) Temperatures will trend even hotter as upper ridging centered over the 4 corners expands and pushes slowly east. Only in the river valleys along I-10 and Northwest Hill Country will temperatures fall into the lower 70s.
1250 AM CDT Mon Jul 18 2022 The RAP model shows an 18C-20C h700mb thermal ridge building into wrn Nebraska Monday afternoon. The forecast is a compromise between the warmer/faster GFS which tracks the sfc across SD farther east and the slower/cooler HRRR and RAP models which keep the low farther west. A Pacific cold front moving through the Pacific Northwest this afternoon will arrive in wrn and ncntl Nebraska during the day Tuesday, most likely in the morning. Both the blended guidance and deterministic model blend continue to show high temperatures in the low 100s along and south of Interstate 80.
Visible satellite also outlines this trough in the form of widespread diurnal cumulus, developing amidst temperatures in the mid/upper 80s under the cooler temperatures aloft. These clouds should clear out by tonight as surface ridging moves overhead. Tuesday through the end of the forecast period, the main concern will be heat as the persistent upper ridge expands northward again. Deep mixing of 26-30 C temperatures at 850 mb will support highs in the low 100s across much of the area, possibly mid 100s towards central Kansas where mixing may be a bit deeper.
The net effect will be warmer temperatures as low-level winds veer from north to south ahead of a cold front. Afternoon highs will warm near 90 degrees on Tuesday as a weakly forced cold front sags into northern Illinois.
But this wind shift also brings drier dewpoints into the lower 50s north of the boundary in northeast NE, and lower 60s along I80. And even though it will be very hot Tuesday, with the lower dewpoints, heat index values only range 94 to 101 for much of the area.
Upper level ridging builds eastward on Monday and as 700/850 mb temperatures increase to near the max with respect to climatology, it will be a very hot day with highs topping 100 west of Interstate 29. With deep mixing and a tightening surface gradient as a low pressure trough develops through the western High Plains, southerly winds will really ramp up, and continued to blend the NBM 90th percentile into the wind field. With good mixing temperatures will still climb into the lower to mid 90s.
253 AM CDT Mon Jul 18 2022 As an upper level trof moves across the region today, the chance for showers and isolated thunderstorms will diminish from northwest to southeast.
Expect a continuation of dry and hot conditions, perhaps a degree or so warmer than yesterday in many locations as highs will rise into the 98-105 degree range. A Heat Advisory will go into effect at 2pm today for portions of the area, with an SPS covering much of the Hill Country, Rio Grande Plains, and our far SE Coastal Plains counties where temperatures will remain a touch cooler or criteria are higher.
- Heat indices remain below Heat Advisory criteria High pressure will remain in control as we kick off the work week. With that said, a weak upper level inverted trough looks to take shape through the day across Deep South Texas with the best forcing remaining to our south. Even if this trough drifts a bit further north, can't see much in the way of precip developing as mid level ridging and below normal moisture keep a tight grasp on the region. Highs today will warm into the low 90s along the coast to around 107 across the Brush Country.
These temperatures are on track to fall into the lower 70s inland with middle to upper 70s along the coast given mostly clear skies. An upper level trough will slowly move across the Great Lakes and Tennessee Valley regions through Tuesday while an upper ridge persists to our west. Boundary layer moisture will increase slightly along this trough axis Monday, especially along and northwest of I-65 where precipitable water values will be around 2 inches. Lows Monday night will be a few degrees warmer than tonight given the slight increase in moisture with values in the middle to upper 70s.
1215 AM CDT Mon Jul 18 2022 (Tonight through Monday night) Mostly clear skies are prevailing across South-Central Texas at the present time with temperatures in the in the lower to middle 90s across most locations. This should allow lows to reach the lower to middle 70s once again. Low temperatures tomorrow night will also be about a degree or two warmer across the area as temperatures continue to climb.
At the surface, southwest KS will be in a somewhat nebulous pressure field between weak high pressure to the southeast and a deepening lee cyclone to the north, yielding 10-20 mph southerly winds through the day Monday. These southerly winds and subsidence beneath the upper level ridge will result in a return of triple digits highs for most locations under mostly clear skies. Monday night will be quiet across the central plains, with winds weakening even further with the loss of daytime heating, and lows will drop into the low to mid 70s. While this will still easily translate to 105-110F temperatures at the surface, with the highest temperatures favoring the Red Hills region, chances of any location breaking the all time record high (111F at Dodge City, 110F at Garden City) are dwindling.
Like mentioned a number of times in the past few days, a decent upper trof will track across ND through Tuesday. Ahead of the trof a very warm EML advects across the forecast area today and tonight, with H7 temps pushing +16C or even higher depending upon the model you look at. The extended is dominated by a not untypical upper high that remains situated across the southern tier of the country, with transient weak systems that move across the norther tier of the country.
At the surface, southwest KS will be in a somewhat nebulous pressure field between weak high pressure to the southeast and a deepening lee cyclone to the north, yielding 10-20 mph southerly winds through the day Monday. These southerly winds and subsidence beneath the upper level ridge will result in a return of triple digits highs for most locations under mostly clear skies. Monday night will be quiet across the central plains, with winds weakening even further with the loss of daytime heating, and lows will drop into the low to mid 70s. Lows Tuesday morning should be in the low to mid 70s. There will be enhanced pre- frontal compressional warming to help bump the highs into breaking records territory.
355 AM EDT Mon Jul 18 2022 A surface trof will move across the area tonight while a cold front stalls along the Mason Dixon line before dissipating on Tuesday.
(Today and tonight) Heat will again be the story today, though the passage of last night's cold front should keep our headlines confined to our southern counties.
Otherwise, dry weather is expected through tomorrow as the trough that brought us the rain yesterday has moved east of the area and an upper ridge over the northern Plains rotates southeast into the Midwest. Highs today in the mid-upper 80s will be warmer with more sun that yesterday. With winds turning out of the south and a sunny sky, the highs will climb back into the 90s on Tuesday with afternoon with heat indices in the 100-105 range over parts of central and southeast Missouri.
Skies were ranging from clear over our eastern areas to cloudy west, overnight temperatures were unseasonably warm so far, mainly in the lower 80s. With more clouds than sun and rain chances, a bit "cooler" today far as temperatures.
The combination of the high temperatures and high humidity will result in peak heat index values around 105F again today.
Expect highs to be in the low 90s with lows tonight in the low to mid 70s.
1035 PM CDT Sun Jul 17 2022 (Rest of tonight) Clouds are increasing over northwest AL as an upper trough continues to shift south and east into the lower MS River Valley. A cold front is draped across southern IN and IL and will continue pushing southeast overnight. Overnight lows will be quite warm tonight, ranging from the low to mid 70s.
Ergo, extended the portions of the heat advisory for south-central Montana and Sheridan County, WY through Monday evening, though temperatures should quickly cool off behind the cold front later in the afternoon. Vertz Satellite shows monsoonal moisture getting pulled into the western side of a hot upper level ridge which is slowly progressing eastward. Monday an unusually deep upper level low moves into northwest Montana from the west with a cold front reaching the west portion of the area by afternoon. Monday night the front crosses the area and could be unusually windy overnight as the upper low track provides plenty of momentum and this may disrupt inversion formation and keep conditions again warm over central and eastern Montana. By Tuesday most of the area is post frontal so it will be slightly cooler but it will be dry and sunnier.
240 AM CDT Mon Jul 18 2022 (Issued 240 AM CDT Mon Jul 18 2022) Today through Tuesday: Surface ridging will drop south of the area today. This is when gusty south and southwest winds amp up with a tightening pressure gradient ahead of low pressure in the northern Plains. The warmest day will be Tuesday ahead of the cold front when that thermal ridge takes hold bringing in the warm axis of 925 temps. Still looking at a shot of a few storms Tuesday night due to impressive trough swing through.
Satellite water vapor channel shows a 500-hPa ridge moving northward across the Four Corners region this afternoon. This ridge is expected to increase to 598 dm over the Rockies through tomorrow. High pressure will continue to build southward across the central plains this evening. For Monday, the high pressure center shifts off the the east. Weak lee troughing resumes across the High Plains of Colorado. Lows Tuesday morning should be in the low to mid 70s. There will be enhanced pre- frontal compressional warming to help bump the highs into breaking records territory.
The Florida Keys sensible weather is being dominated by a high pressure system located in the North Atlantic Ocean. Temperatures are in the lower 80s and dew point temperatures are in the mid 70s. The aforementioned high pressure will continue to build, move westward, and back our winds to be out of the east.
High pressure moving over the region will bring warm and dry weather.
252 AM CDT Mon Jul 18 2022 High pressure was located over the Central Plains into the Western Great Lakes region leading to clear skies and light winds locally. An area of high pressure will remain over the region today leading to sunny skies, light winds, and highs in the mid/upper 80s. Tuesday Breezy and hot conditions are expected as southerly winds increase, gusting between 20 to 30 mph, on the northwest periphery of high pressure situated in the Ohio Valley.
Tonight Through Tuesday Upper high pressure continues over the Rockies with an upper trough riding the eastern edge through the midwest. The upper trough will move into the eastern Great Lakes Monday. Tuesday, the high begins building eastward. A cold front continues in southwest Missouri and northeast Oklahoma. With high pressure over the area, not confident the front will make it through central sections.
402 AM MDT Mon Jul 18 2022 A low pressure system has begun to track over the Pacific Northwest and will eventually move through the Northern Rockies. This will flatten the ridge enough to allow for more westerly flow. Although the lowest chances will be around the Four Corners. Some of the lower valleys and areas that manage to avoid cloud cover and precip will see highs 5-10 degrees above normal. Tomorrow the low pressure tracks over the Northern Plains, which keeps the high to our south. Persistent high pressure continues its reign on the west slope this week.
The border region from just west of Sierra Vista toward Sells will have the highest chance of seeing storms this afternoon with a few scattered elsewhere. Temperatures will continue to be warmer than normal today. Remaining warmer than average during the afternoon.
Once more, large hail and damaging wind gusts are possible, along with a tornado or two as effective shear will be favorable at the low to mid-levels. Temps for the period will be on the warm side of normal to slightly above with highs in the mid to upper 80s Wed through the weekend and lows generally in the low 60s with a few upper 50s in the climatologically cool spots.
612 AM CDT Mon Jul 18 2022 (Today and tonight) Heat will again be the story today, though the passage of last night's cold front should keep our headlines confined to our southern counties.
As the broad upper ridge maintains its presence and builds over the region, increasing thicknesses will yield not only a continuation of our steady warming trend, but also our dry conditions. High temperatures today will reach into the lower 100s across most of the plains, with locations across the mountains in the lower to middle 90s, save for the highest elevations.