Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Strong high pressure over the western US with a sharp ridge axis that extends warmer, drier conditions from north- central Mexico across the Great Basin then over the Columbia River basin and finally continuing into western Canada.
215 PM PDT Tue Sep 29 2020 High pressure will be anchored over the West this week bringing our region a prolonged period of warm and dry weather.
1044 PM EDT Tue Sep 29 2020 An early season cold front is slowly making its way southeast through the eastern Gulf. Looking up the west coast of Florida, northerly winds have now developed as far south as Sarasota, though the leading edge of genuinely cooler air is holding back north of Tampa near Brooksville. An earlier cluster of thunderstorms over the southeast Gulf launched an outflow boundary that is making its way through our Gulf waters toward the Lower Keys. It will wash out near the Lower Keys overnight but will provide a focus for some shower development. This will provide an increasingly favorable environment overnight and Wed morning for shower development, especially over the Gulf and over the Lower/Middle Keys. A cold front will stall near the Keys Wednesday afternoon and evening.
611 PM CDT Tue Sep 29 2020 (This evening through Wednesday) Westerly winds will being warmer 850 mb temperatures east off the High Plains tonight and into tomorrow, so warmer temperatures are expected tomorrow as we mix into that warmer air.
The forecast area remains within northwesterly flow between an amplified trough over the eastern half of the CONUS and a ridge expanding over the Pacific Northwest into the southwestern US. This will give us a quiet and seasonable evening as temperature advection becomes more neutral overnight and clear skies allow enough radiational cooling to fall back to the low 50s by sunrise. For Wednesday, recent models suggest the cold front dropping south from NE during the mid to late morning, which is earlier than previous models had indicated. For now, have highs in the low 70s near the KS/NE border and mid to upper 70s along and south of I-70, but could see these become cooler if the front indeed moves through the area faster.
303 PM MDT Tue Sep 29 2020 Windy, and warm conditions are expected for the remainder of the afternoon, before a weak cold front brings cooler temperatures and higher humidity this evening into tonight. High temperatures for Wednesday will be about 10 to 20 degrees cooler than today, with the coolest readings expected over North-central Montana. A weak cold front forecast to reach the Hi-Line area late this afternoon, before traversing the remainder of Central/North- central Montana during the overnight hours and eventually becoming nearly stationary over the southwest. The front will bring cooler temperatures and higher relative humidity for tonight and Wednesday, with some lower clouds expected to develop along the Divide and over portions of plains. Wednesday's high temperatures will be quite a bit cooler than today, with lower elevation highs in the 60s and 70s.
High pressure will push temperatures back to near record levels the second half of the week into the weekend. Currently clear skies over southeast Arizona with temperatures ranging from the lower 100's in western Pima County to the mid 80's along the AZ/NM border. The upper air pattern is characterized by a ridge over the western part of the CONUS and a longwave trough over the eastern part.
Little changes to the current forecast, as strong upper- level ridging will keep conditions quiet, allowing for more of a persistence forecast. Expect overnight lows into mid 40s, with upper 30s in the mountains, and highs tomorrow in the low to mid 80s. Otherwise, latest water vapor imagery shows a dominant amplified mid-level ridge over the western CONUS extending over OR on north across the British Columbia coast into the Yukon. Large scale pattern in the short term will remained controlled by the mid-level ridge, of which the axis will shift east some to be over British Columbia/Alberta by late Wednesday. Current thinking is continued dry conditions and warmer than normal temperatures will prevail. Of which, highs will be a similar to a few degrees warmer than today, warmer in the Basin, and reading about 10-20 degrees above normal.
836 PM CDT Tue Sep 29 2020 A potent mid and upper level trough axis is continuing its final push through the TN Valley this evening. Weak ridging at the surface will build in overnight, keeping skies mostly clear and winds fairly calm. While dense fog is not expected, in sheltered valleys where temperatures drop more into the low 40s near brisk dew points, lower visibilities will be possible.
555 PM EDT Tue Sep 29 2020 Sharp trough is currently rotating through the mid Ohio Valley this afternoon. H500 and H850 trough axis is still a bit upstream from us, basically bisecting the Commonwealth. A second trough will drop southeast into the Midwest by late Wednesday, Wednesday night. A corresponding surface cold front will reach the Ohio River by Wednesday evening. Surface pressure gradients tighten considerable ahead of the cold front.
320 PM MDT Tue Sep 29 2020 High pressure over the region will result in dry and warm weather persisting through the upcoming weekend.
337 AM CDT Wed Sep 30 2020 Temperatures will warm considerably today as a low level thermal ridge expands eastward into the region ahead of an approaching cold front. A cold front will move through the area later this afternoon and march southward into the evening. A large upper level ridge will remain planted over the western US while a deep trough will remain in place over the eastern US for the next several days.
Winds to become light and northeast on Thursday as high pressure becomes reinforced behind a dry cold front across the region. Temperatures to range from highs in the low to mid 80s today to lows in the mid 50s overnight. High temperatures on Wednesday to climb into the mid 70s behind the front across the I-30 corridor to the lower 80s across deep east Texas and north Louisiana.
452 AM EDT Wed Sep 30 2020 Amplified pattern aloft continues over CONUS with a strong ridge out west and a deep trough over the east extending down into our area. Surface cold front has pushed across much of the peninsula, currently located along a line roughly from just south of Melbourne to Fort Myers.
High pressure remains in control over East Idaho through the entire forecast period.
Impressive ridge continues its residence over the western U.
350 AM CDT Wed Sep 30 2020 Beautiful weather will continue for the rest of the week as another reinforcing cold front is expected to move through the region tonight. Ahead of that front expect southwest winds that will allow temperatures to rise to around 80 degrees before we dip back into the low 70s on Thursday.
Otherwise, Surface and upper-level ridging to maintain VFR conditions across area terminals through tonight. /Tonight/ Temps have dropped off quickly since sunset with the dry air mass in place (and about 1-5+ degrees cooler than 24 hrs ago), with most locales having fallen to near or below 60 degrees as of 02Z. Good radiational cooling will continue overnight, as the thin cirrus in the NW flow aloft continues to dissipate on the backside of the upper trough that continues to slowly shift E from the Great Lakes Region into the Nrn Gulf of MX.
145 AM MDT Wed Sep 30 2020 Overview: NW flow aloft will prevail over the Tri-State area -- at the inflection point of a highly amplified synoptic pattern characterized by profound ridging aloft over the western CONUS and profound troughing aloft over the eastern CONUS. Canadian high pressure will surge southward along the lee of the Rockies tonight. For locations north of I-70, expect highs around 5-10F cooler than today (lower-mid 70s). With a cooler airmass in place over the Tri-State area, expect Thu morning lows ranging from the mid 30s to lower 40s, coolest along/west of Hwy 25 where frost cannot be ruled out. At the start of the period, an upper ridge prevails along the west coast, with a broad trough extending from the Plains to the eastern CONUS.
SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday): Mostly clear skies and light winds prevail across deep south Texas early this morning with high pressure in control. Tranquil conditions will persist through the forecast period as mid level ridging overhead provides subsidence across the region. Low temperatures tonight will range from the upper 50s across the northern ranchlands to the low to mid 60s near the coast as the air mass begins to modify.
1106 PM CDT Tue Sep 29 2020 Pronounced mid level trough currently over the Mississippi and Ohio River Valleys is feeding steady northwest flow into the immediate forecast area. Through the rest of the week, the mid levels will be dominated by a long wave trough situated generally over the Hudson Bay region, which will cause the mid level flow over the immediate area to remain northwest, but perhaps a bit more zonal than meridional.
A belt of high clouds behind the passed cold front from yesterday, exits the eastern forecast area overnight as clear skies overtake the region.
A dome of high pressure will be situated over the West Coast and Pacific Northwest today through Thursday resulting in a northwest flow aloft across our forecast area. A backdoor cold front worked its way through the forecast area last evening and early this morning.
1130 PM MDT Tue Sep 29 2020 A strong ridge of high pressure will persist over the West at midweek. The high described in the short term discussion persists through the end of the week, so dry conditions with warm sunny days and clear and cool nights will continue.
The bulk of it seems to be relegated to areas near bodies of water, so I don't think we'll need to do an advisory this morning, but this is going to be a running theme on these cooler mornings as water temperatures continue to be warmer than the environmental temperatures. It'll be breezy, as we can expect a southwest wind to kick up, which will also usher in some warmer temperatures.
CDG Chattanooga Airport, TN 75 53 74 49 67 / 0 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 71 54 71 47 64 / 0 0 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 72 53 71 46 64 / 0 0 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 67 51 68 44 61 / 0 0 10 0 0.
The only exception will be a dry backdoor cold front that descends into northeast New Mexico on Thursday, bringing cooler temperatures and breezy winds.
As this trough progresses southward, it will drive a cold front south across the Central Plains states today. Impressive H85 cold air advection will likely result in steady and/or falling temperatures by afternoon across much of the region with lows tonight dipping into the lower 40s for many areas.
Drier and cooler northerly flow continues across the region through the near term period. Highs on Wednesday reach the mid to upper 70s and then we're back in the low to perhaps mid 80s Thursday afternoon. Lows Wednesday night also trend a few degrees warmer compared to tonight, with temps remaining in the mid 50s inland and upper 50s to low 60s along the coast.
1254 AM EDT Wed Sep 30 2020 Showers will diminish tonight as an upper trough slides across the Upper Ohio Valley. Light showers continue across the region this evening with increased forcing for ascent in advance of the upper trough axis. A deep, phasing trough will slowly dig across the Upper Ohio through this evening as showers continue as per increasing forcing- for- ascent. Rainfall is not expected to be problematic as per eastward trough, and convective element progression along with an influx of drying mid level air. A cooler airmass is already in place and no appreciable change was needed for the low temperature forecast just a few degrees under the seasonal averages. The trough axis/cold front and associated precipitation will shift eastward by Wednesday morning.
Otherwise, expect light westerly winds overnight, with a cold front pushing south tomorrow, which will cause winds to veer to northeasterly at all sites by the mid afternoon hours. /Issued 230 PM CDT Tue Sep 29 2020/ Winds will continue to decrease late this afternoon as the pressure gradient relaxes between high pressure to our southwest and low pressure to our northeast. A cold front is expected to move south across the Panhandles Wednesday morning. High temperatures on Wednesday will still be able to get above normal with readings in the mid 80's to the lower 90's.
248 AM CDT Wed Sep 30 2020 Today through tonight: Northwest flow associated with a highly amplified longwave trough over eastern North America is maintaining a dry and seasonable airmass over the ArkLaMiss region. Sunny skies and increased warm advection/mixing ahead of the next approaching cold front will allow temperatures to rebound a bit today, especially over the Delta region, and temperatures tonight will not be quite as cool.
(Today and tonight) A downslope-warmed air mass across the High Plains will advect in from the northwest today.
/Issued 1219 AM CDT Wed Sep 30 2020/ /Through Thursday/ Slightly higher dewpoints and southwesterly winds should keep overnight temperatures a little warmer than yesterday. Meanwhile, North and Central Texas remains on the eastern edge of a mid/upper level ridge centered over the Desert Southwest. Areas immediately along the I-20 corridor will likely experience about a 6 to 8 degree drop compared to Wednesday, with Thursday highs in the lower 80s.
/NEW/ /Through Thursday/ Slightly higher dewpoints and southwesterly winds should keep overnight temperatures a little warmer than yesterday. Meanwhile, North and Central Texas remains on the eastern edge of a mid/upper level ridge centered over the Desert Southwest. Areas immediately along the I-20 corridor will likely experience about a 6 to 8 degree drop compared to Wednesday, with Thursday highs in the lower 80s.
900 PM PDT Tue Sep 29 2020 High pressure aloft will bring hot and very dry conditions through Thursday with the the heat extending almost to the coast Wednesday.
VFR conditions will continue for the next 24 hours with high pressure in control. Expect VFR conditions to prevail across the Rio Grande Valley the rest of tonight into early Wednesday morning as the 500mb ridge across the western United States and the 500mb trough across the eastern U. /issued 239 PM CDT Tue Sep 29 2020/ SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday Night): High pressure continues to build over the area as an overhead mid level trough shifts east, and upstream ridging builds over North Central Mexico and East Texas toward the lower RGV.
339 AM EDT Wed Sep 30 2020 Mainly dry weather and cooler than average temperatures will dominate the weather pattern across central Pennsylvania into the weekend. It will be breezy and cooler with highs a few to several degrees below average for the last day of September.
A cold front will move through western Kansas starting around sunrise with the stronger cold air advection coming in towards noon. Given that we were warmer than guidance yesterday I decided to go on the higher end for high temperatures today with lower 80s in the north, mid 80s through the central portion of the CWA, and near 90 along the Oklahoma border. Lows will be in the low to mid 40s.
150 AM EDT Wed Sep 30 2020 A cold front will move off the Carolina coast by this morning with high pressure building into the area behind it.
some SW winds were increasing in the higher elevations of the Ozarks. allowing for much warmer conditions across the state. A new cold front will drop SE into the CWA by late this afternoon across the far NWRN counties. Expect temps to be 10 to 15 deg cooler for Thu afternoon behind this front as NRLY winds usher in cooler. Expect lows to drop down into the low 40s to around 50 by Fri morning.
winds will shift from NW this morning to N by noon and then NW to SE this evening as high pressure builds in. Strong cold front moving east across forecast area this afternoon will pass east of the region this evening. High pressure will build from the west overnight, with rainfall ending from west to east.
1014 PM MDT Tue Sep 29 2020 Satellite and upper level analysis has an upper ridge in place over the western CONUS, resulting in northerly flow across the forecast area. At the surface, a cold front extends through Montana and North Dakota as approaches the area. For tonight, the cold front will move through the forecast area. Overall, temperatures will be cooler than today, but should only be slightly below seasonal averages. Temperatures on Thursday will remain chilly, and will be cooler than Wednesday, with highs about 10 degrees below average.
The only exception is a dry cold front that will push through the area in the morning, dropping dewpoints rapidly into the 30s. This will stall out the rising temperatures today, making the high temperatures occur more around 2pm instead of late in the afternoon as normal. Winds will pick up quickly today with plenty of mixing to allow gusts of 25-30mph south of HWY 36 and 30-35mph to the north, with the highest winds along the MO/IA border. Highs will likely top out in the upper 50s over northern MO, but should get into the lower 60s over the rest of our area.
345 AM CDT Wed Sep 30 2020 An anomalously strong 594 dam high is parked over the Desert Southwest whilst a deep and persistent upper trough continues to deliver precipitation and cool temps to the northeast CONUS. High temperatures will be 5-10 degrees warmer today with many locations in the Permian Basin hitting 90F due to the return of southerly sfc flow and 850 hpa temps around 23-24C. A weak cold front will slide into the region early Thursday which will help knock temps down a few degrees.
202 AM EDT Wed Sep 30 2020 Very cool and dry conditions will be the rule through most of this week as an upper level trough digs into the northeast U.
348 AM CDT Wed Sep 30 2020 (Issued 347 AM CDT Wed Sep 30 2020) Today through Thursday: We are stuck in a pattern that has an upper trough over the Great Lakes and features surges of vorticity advection and cold air advection into southern WI. Low temperatures will be similar to last night, with lows in the lower 40s inland from the lake. High temperatures will only be in the lower to mid 50s.
An upper trough axis continues to traverse atop the southern Appalachians this morning with deep nwly flow prevailing behind across the TN Valley. At the surface, high pressure centered over central TX stretches east across the MS Valley into the lower the TN Valley. As skies sct out through daybreak, the moist BL combined with calm flow will support patchy fog development, with the highest probs being further west where the better radiational cooling is expected. Tonight, the cold front will approach from the northwest, likely not arriving until early on Thursday as a dry fropa, however with increasing sky cover out ahead.
Otherwise, unseasonably cool conditions continue with lows tonight in the upper 30s to mid 40s and highs Wednesday ranging from the lower 50s to lower 60s. Northwest flow ushers another mid-level wave/surface cold front in on Thursday for continued shower and isolated thunderstorm chances.
1055 PM CDT Tue Sep 29 2020 (This evening through Wednesday) Westerly winds will being warmer 850 mb temperatures east off the High Plains tonight and into tomorrow, so warmer temperatures are expected tomorrow as we mix into that warmer air.
304 AM CDT Wed Sep 30 2020 Quiet weather across the Tennessee Valley region early this morning as high pressure has built into the area. The end result will be a clear, sunny and pleasant day to close out the month of September, with highs in the low to mid 70s. An amplifying upper trough over the Great Lakes will force a secondary dry cold front into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys on Thursday.
Expect the 500 MB trough axis to exit the rest of the forecast area before dawn as this will bring an end to the showers across the area. Low level moisture still in place behind the trough will keep a stratus layer in place through much of the day with a few breaks of cloud cover this afternoon but mainly in the south. Despite the cooler air mass in place, temperatures will still rebound into the mid and upper 60s but still in the lower 60s up north due to the persistent cloud cover. The upper level pattern will continue to feature an upper level closed low over the Great Lakes with a mentioned trough swinging through the forecast area tonight.
Persistent dry weather pattern will continue for the foreseeable future as a dominant ridge of high pressure aloft remains nearly anchored across the intermountain west and four corners region. This will result in temperatures about 10 degrees cooler compared to today and early Wednesday afternoon. Overnight lows will be near freezing early Thursday morning across most of the area.
258 AM EDT Wed Sep 30 2020 Cooler air along with dry conditions will settle into the region for the next several days. Cooler, drier regime, below average max-T today and min-T tonight, but very close to climatology Thursday day. Very quiet weather conditions through the short term period as mid level troughing will dictate conditions across the Eastern U. Highs will be in the lower 70s or so with low temperatures dipping into the lower 50s with some upper 40s not out of the question. Maintained the low chance pops with this feature although the GFS has essentially backed off any precip while the ECMWF continues to show some.
/issued 743 PM CDT Tue Sep 29 2020/ Northwest flow aloft will continue across the Mid-South through the near term in the wake of the trough moving up the OH Valley. A deep upper trough is swinging through the region this afternoon with below normal temperatures.
155 AM MDT Wed Sep 30 2020 07z surface analysis showed cold front about to exit the CWA via NE/east central WY. Water vapour loop had upper ridge over the western CONUS, upper low north of the Great Lakes and fast northwest flow over the northern plains.
317 AM CDT Wed Sep 30 2020 A broad upper level trough will be over the eastern half of the country during the short term period, digging south to become centered from Hudson Bay to the Gulf of Mexico by Thursday evening. At the surface, the region will be situated between low pressure to the east and high pressure to the west today and tonight, with the high then sliding over the central part of the country on Thursday. The gradient slackens a bit tonight as the high approaches, but will see winds stay up in the 10 to 20 mph range tonight into the day Thursday. Though temperatures will be cooler today, the winds and dry conditions will still aid in creating high to very high fire danger this afternoon, mainly west of the Missouri River.
A new cold front will drop SE into the state Wed evening. A large upper ridge will be over the western U. and a large upper trough will be over the eastern half of the U. High temperatures will be a bit warmer Wednesday but a cold front will move through the state Wednesday night. High temperatures will be in the lower 80s Wednesday and then 70s on Thursday.
149 AM EDT Wed Sep 30 2020 High pressure will build over the area tonight.
352 AM EDT Wed Sep 30 2020 A cold front will race through the area today bringing rain showers and a period of breezy conditions. Rain showers early this morning developed on the leading edge of an 850-mb baroclinic zone embedded within a 500-mb trough axis. Rain showers are looking to become more widespread within a couple hours of sunrise as a cold front races in from the Northern Plains. The RAP suggests that the 850-mb wind field increases, rounding the trough axis. In the wake of this cold front, lake effect rain showers begin to take shape. Lake effect ramps up on Thursday as another trough rotates through. Most of the CWA has a shot to see some rain from this trough initially.
High pressure will maintain a warm and dry airmass across the region through the upcoming weekend. An expansive mid level ridge centered west of the forecast area is maintaining a mild and dry northwesterly flow across the region.
Tonight and Wednesday A short wave trough will move through the region for the rest of the afternoon and early evening, with showers tapering off from west to east in it's wake.