Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
The upper level low over Northern California. upper level ridging will also begin to be shunted off to the east. with tomorrows low 70s possibly being a stretch given that today's (Friday's) stratus has kept temperatures in the low to mid-60s. Upper low moves east through the weekend with height rises and ridge building into the northern plains. Gulf is open and strong warm air advection and moisture advection into the northern plains with dew points rising into the lower 60s.
/Tonight/ H300 trough currently over the mid-Mississippi River valley in water vapor imagery will slide eastward into the southern Great Lakes region by 12Z Saturday. At the same time, a Great Lakes high pressure system will backbuild westward across the state tonight. Increasing subsidence coincident with the departing trough should help keep skies on the clearer side once the diurnal CU dissipate. Given how temperatures bottomed out in the low 40s north to mid 50s south last night, have nudged down lows for tonight a few degrees into the upper 40s to around 50.
/ISSUED / Early afternoon temperatures across Southeast Texas range from the upper 60s to around 70 up north where cloud cover has persisted to the lower 80s closer to the coast where sun has been shining the longest. Still looking for afternoon high temperatures to peak in the lower to mid 80s most spots. Weak mid to upper level ridging from the south during the first half of the week breaks down during the second half of the week. Generally looking for almost daily slight chance to chance pops with the higher chances probably ending up across our northern counties and lower chances near the coast. 42 Weak high pressure over East Texas will move east tonight. The pressure gradient will begin to tighten on Saturday night as low pressure in the lee of the Rockies begins to deepen.
Tonight and Saturday Main forecast challenge to remain on temperatures as high pressure to remain parked over the Great Lakes into the weekend. The 19z MSAS surface analysis showed and area of high pressure extended from the Upper MS Valley ewd through the Great Lakes to upstate NY. Despite the high pressure overhead, visible satellite imagery indicated a decent amount of clouds across the middle of the CONUS. The mean flow becomes highly-amplified this weekend with a broad upper trough over the Western CONUS, an upper ridge over the Central CONUS and another upper trough over the Eastern CONUS. On Saturday, NE WI to reside under a NW flow aloft which typically signifies cooler weather.
730 PM EDT FRI MAY 20 2016 High pressure continues to build into the region tonight for another dry night with clear skies.
Windy conditions will continue through tonight as a strong area of low pressure moves into the region.
Low pressure system over Northern California is expected to move E-NE tonight, eventually lifting through Idaho late Saturday. Saturday night showers diminish, then another disturbance embedded in the broad low pressure trough will cross southeast Idaho for a showery day.
The region will remain downstream of the upper trough moving across the southeast until Saturday morning. Much drier air aloft will then move into the area as the base of the trough moves into the western Atlantic.
625 PM CDT FRI MAY 20 2016 At 3 PM, a short wave trough was located over northern Missouri. Finally, another short wave trough was located over central Minnesota.
A stratus deck will likely keep temperatures up overnight and cooler during the day tomorrow.
with front over middle TN and warm front across southeast TN lifting northeast causing widespread showers north and scattered south.
These winds will be increasing over the next 36 hours as the upper Low over northern California tracks slowly to the northeast. Another mild night expected Saturday night as a cold front works across Utah.
20z surface analysis had southerly flow over the CWA ahead of lee trough from central MT into central CO. TSRA have developed over the higher terrain as southeast boundary layer flow converges over the northern and central Black Hills. Convection should develop along lee trough in the afternoon over northeast WY with 15-20m/s 0-6km bulk shear.
Cutoff upper low is shifting northward, into s-central Oregon this evening. For southwest Idaho zones shower activity will decrease, especially across the lower valleys.
657 PM CDT FRI MAY 20 2016 Weak upper low tracking across the Midwest bringing some light precip. just low chances for precip, and winds becoming increasingly northerly in the wake of the low. The upper low and any lingering rain chance in our southeast counties will finally push away from our area later Saturday morning, which should allow a decrease in cloud cover during the day as upper level heights slowly build over the region.
With the expected thick cloud coverage, kept fog visibilities on the high-end of MVFR from ALI-VCT with 4SM-6SM. A much warmer and more moist airmass is poised to surge back into the area tonight into Saturday as the front which pushed through last evening returns inland. Dewpoints just offshore and over the lower Valley are in the u70s-L80s. Hopefully you were able to get out and enjoy the lower humidity earlier today because tropical humidity is returning and once it does it will stick around indefinitely. Clouds should slowly clear a bit diurnally Saturday allowing temperatures to get much warmer than today.
The highest rain chances are currently north of Tampa.
515 PM MDT FRI MAY 20 2016 20z surface analysis had southerly flow over the CWA ahead of lee trough from central MT into central CO. TSRA have developed over the higher terrain as southeast boundary layer flow converges over the northern and central Black Hills. Convection should develop along lee trough in the afternoon over northeast WY with 15-20m/s 0-6km bulk shear.
Satellite/surface obs depicting mostly clear skies over the forecast area with high pressure building into the region. High pressure now building over the region in the wake of our latest frontal passage. Expecting just a bit of patchy fog towards sunrise as skies will be mostly clear as ridging aloft develops. The ridging will keep clouds in check thereby allowing afternoon temps to climb back into the mid to upper 80s over the weekend.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. AN UPPER LOW SPINNING ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN THIS EVENING IS INDUCING STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST AROUND 18Z SATURDAY.
If not, the mid and upper level low off the Mid- Atlantic coast should provide plenty of unsettling ripples over the region that could allow diurnal convection to rise to the level of thunderstorms through the extended.
Pared back pops to just isolated over the higher terrain for a few hours this eve, otherwise feel that the HRR is overdone.
545 PM MDT FRI MAY 20 2016 00Z TAF CYCLE VFR conditions will prevail under building high pressure aloft tonight and Saturday.
Next concern is storm development along and ahead of a cold front pushing into western Alabama this evening. The upper trough will be moving through the OH and TN valley areas overnight. most rain should be east of the forecast area except for a lingering slight chance for the northeast mountains close to the upper trough. Temperatures have been cooler for much of north GA this afternoon due to easterly winds and clouds. Cold front is through the area by Saturday evening.
843 PM MDT FRI MAY 20 2016 The upper level low pressure system to the west will keep some showers in the area. An approaching low pressure system will keep moist, unsettled conditions across Central and Southwest Montana through Saturday.
Rains shouldn't make much inroads farther west given much more stability, though did add isolated back into Willacy and western Cameron to cover any boundaries that come out of the Hidalgo (City) storm into very soupy air mass that continues across the rest of the Lower and Mid Valley.
Thermo fields from the more aggressive models look strange with the lower atm too warm yet accumulating snow. Impacts overall should be on the low side given the weekend and time of day.
The extent of stratus across the entire Upper Midwest and Great Lakes, with weak cyclonic flow persisting in the low levels, will hold the stratus in through the night and likely into Sat evening. This is a trend that will continue through tonight but not much else will change with the low level thermal profile and this will help stratus remain abundant within the lingering low level cyclonic flow.
But with light winds and weak cold advection, lows will still drop to the lower to middle 30s. Broad isentropic lift and strong warm advection occurs ahead of the low and is developing precip/low clouds to our southwest by Saturday afternoon. Highs on Saturday will be cooler than Friday, in the lower 50s.
613 PM EST Fri Dec 2 2016 An upper trough will move southeast from Canada overnight, and will bring a chance of rain and snow showers.
A weak low pressure trough will move north of the area overnight tonight increasing cloudiness and a slight chance for showers across the northern areas.
617 PM PST Fri Dec 2 2016 A cold front that moved through the region is bringing in colder air with a possibility of freezing conditions in the San Joaquin Valley tonight.
712 PM EST Fri Dec 2 2016 High pressure will build into the area Saturday and move off to the east Saturday night.
Over north central KY/southern IN where clouds are expected for most of tonight expect lows to linger in the lower 30s with a few upper 20s possible. Saturday expect a mostly cloudy day with highs in the low to mid 40s.
WAA/short wave trough mid level clouds shown on satellite will be making their way east tonight. The clouds may hold in longer across the east on Saturday along with chances of light rain/light snow coming in the far east later in the day as a short wave trough moves through.
Low pressure will continue to move across eastern Canada and Maine as high pressure approaches from the west. The high will move just south of the region on Saturday with mid level ridging overhead.
Zonal flow has developed across the region this evening as a deep upper level trough in the Gulf of Alaska brings moist west-northwest flow to our area. A warm front is moving into the Pacific Northwest this evening and precipitation will be focused NE Oregon mountains and central Idaho mountains generally north of a Burns-Ontario-Stanley line.
The Northland's light northwest flow will continue into tonight, especially aloft, while the axis of a subtle ridge of high pressure shifts into Northland from the west. There are low chances of very light snow and patchy freezing drizzle across small portions of the South Shore, mainly along west/north side of the Bayfield Peninsula, due to the cold flow over Lake Superior. Light, southerly return flow will develop Saturday in the wake of the passing ridge of high pressure.
This has kept temps in these areas a bit warmer than in the previous forecast. Over north central KY/southern IN where clouds are expected for most of tonight expect lows to linger in the lower 30s with a few upper 20s possible. Saturday expect a mostly cloudy day with highs in the low to mid 40s.
This trof will approach late in the day and cross the fcst area tomorrow night. This high will drift into the Midwest tonight with return flow developing here tomorrow as a weak Clipper emerges into Sask. A little snow could mix back in Sat eve as the low-lvl temp profile cools. Turning Bitterly Cold for Wed-Thu with Current Indications for Aloft: WNW flow Sun will transition to SW flow Mon as an anomalously deep trof developing over the W Mon-Tue and out over the Plains Wed-Thu. A piece of this high will break off and drifts E of the region Fri with return flow developing. The main ones are the magnitude of the height falls over the Wrn USA and the magnitude of the ridge over the E Pac.
High pressure is centered over northeast Alabama this afternoon. This high will keep the region dry tonight.
245 PM PST Fri Dec 2 2016 A cold front that moved through the region is bringing in colder air with a possibility of freezing conditions in the San Joaquin Valley tonight.
849 PM EST Fri Dec 2 2016 High pressure continues to build into the region in the wake of yesterdays front. This will be the coolest night of the week, with lows ranging from near 60 degrees south to the low 40s along the nature coast.
At the surface, high pressure is moving in from the west with overnight lows tonight forecast to be in the upper 20s to mid 30s. Chattanooga Airport, TN 35 52 42 50 / 0 10 80 80 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 32 49 39 47 / 0 0 60 80 Oak Ridge, TN 32 49 39 47 / 0 0 60 80 Tri Cities Airport, TN 28 46 34 45 / 0 0 30 60.
The main threat with these bands will be isolated tornadoes embedded within them as lower level winds significantly turn within the lowest couple of kilometers. A developing warm frontal boundary moving up towards the upper Texas coastline through the weekend will maintain the isolated tornado threat through Saturday. or until the lower level winds back more northeasterly with this boundary's north(east)ern approach.
/Issued 258 PM CST Fri Dec 2 2016/ Upper low currently situated near the CA Baja region. Southwesterly flow aloft to strengthen ahead of the low.
00z APX sounding indicated a slightly higher inversion than this morning (815mb vs 835mb at 12z), but a warmer airmass below that inversion. Associated short wave trough and thicker enhanced cloud cover is slipping down through northern Michigan this afternoon and will slide south and east of the region this evening. Mainly light rain/drizzle, although still just a little mixy in the high terrain. As mentioned, short wave trough will continue to sag south/east of the region by early evening followed by drier air/modest low-mid level ridging nudging into the region overnight and through the day Saturday. Further modest ridging, further drying and weakening flow will further diminish and possibly end lake effect by the end of the day.
High pressure will continue to remain anchored over the Ohio Valley region tonight into Saturday, keeping things rain-free and seasonably cool. Though temperatures may fall into the mid 30s in some locations, it now appears freezing levels will remain too high for any light snow to make it down to the surface.
843 PM CST Fri Dec 2 2016 Mid and high level clouds, associated with an upper low over the swrn US, will continue to move across the TN valley overnight. These clouds should keep mrng lows a little warmer (in the mid 30s) than this mrng. Broad isentropic lift and strong warm advection occurs ahead of the low and is developing precip/low clouds to our southwest by Saturday afternoon. Highs on Saturday will be cooler than Friday, in the lower 50s.
951 PM EST Fri Dec 2 2016 A trof of low pressure will cross the region through Saturday.
Models were depicting good upper level divergence over our area ahead of the approaching upper level trough moving eastward through the northern Plains and in the right entrance region of an upper level jet streak over the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley regions.
424 PM CST Fri Dec 2 2016 Surface analysis shows a coastal trough over the Northwest Gulf of Mexico from roughly off the South Central Louisiana coast to just off the Lower Texas coast. water vapor imagery shows an upper level low over the Baja Peninsula with increasing moist southwest flow ahead of this system across Northern Old Mexico through Texas into the Gulf South.
635 PM EST Fri Dec 2 2016 An upper trough will move southeast from Canada overnight, and will bring a chance of rain and snow showers.
Trough across the 4 corners region which is lifting towards the plains. Tricky temps as highs were a little warmer than expected although this was a result of more sunshine. Lows follow closer to the warmer MOS guidance due to the cloud cover.
Associated short wave trough and thicker enhanced cloud cover is slipping down through northern Michigan this afternoon and will slide south and east of the region this evening. Mainly light rain/drizzle, although still just a little mixy in the high terrain. As mentioned, short wave trough will continue to sag south/east of the region by early evening followed by drier air/modest low-mid level ridging nudging into the region overnight and through the day Saturday. Further modest ridging, further drying and weakening flow will further diminish and possibly end lake effect by the end of the day.
928 PM CST Fri Dec 2 2016 Abundant high clouds continue to spread into the Mid-South this evening ahead of a developing low pressure system over South Texas. High pressure is centered over northeast Alabama this afternoon. This high will keep the region dry tonight.
400 PM MST Fri Dec 2 2016 Upper trough is over the western and north central CONUS, and an area of low clouds continues to cover much of the northern plains. With high pressure over the region, winds are light and variable. Trough will cross the region Saturday, with increasing clouds and winds becoming more westerly.
644 PM EST Fri Dec 2 2016 A trof of low pressure will cross the region through Saturday.
Temperatures will only vary a few degrees over the next 36 hours with lows in the upper 20s tonight and highs in the lower 30s again on Saturday. Early afternoon visible satellite imagery together with Rap13 surface analysis identified an area of high pressure centered over the upper Missouri River Valley.
High pressure will nudge into the area over the weekend marking a return to more seasonal conditions.
317 PM MST Fri Dec 2 2016 The 12z H500 hand analysis is showing a rather anomalous pattern in place with higher than normal heights extending from the EPAC into the high latitudes of E. Lower than average heights are set up across the southwest CONUS with split trough in place with one circulation over the the northern high plains and a more distinct low spinning over the Baja/CA/AZ border. A rather strong upper jet is rounding the southern base of the trough which is aiding southerly flow from the eastern Gulf of Mexico up the lee of the Rockies into southern Colorado. The drier downglide behind the trough will allow showers to gradually end during the early morning hours.
605 PM EST Fri Dec 2 2016 A trof of low pressure will cross the region through Saturday.
Soundings show that this low level moisture will remain across the area through this time period. With these clouds, the low temperatures will not cool as much as the model consensus indicates.
For tonight, warm air advection will result in increasing mid/upper level cloudiness to overspread the forecast area in advance of an approaching upper trough. Temperatures will be several degrees warmer than last night, with minimum readings in the upper 20s to middle 30s.
239 PM PST Fri Dec 2 2016 Strong easterly ridge winds continue today in the Sierra with dangerous wind chill temperatures possible in the highest elevations.
554 PM PST Fri Dec 2 2016 A cold front that moved through the region is bringing in colder air with a possibility of freezing conditions in the San Joaquin Valley tonight.
East of the Highway 83 corridor looks to remain cloudy for at least through the evening, and into the overnight hours over the James River Valley.
/issued 400 PM CST Fri Dec 2 2016/ (Tonight and Saturday) Rain has developed across a large part of the area as a deep upper trough located across Baja approaches West Central Texas. As the cold air continues to fill into the upper trough, both isentropic lift and lift associated with the upper trough will continue to increase through tonight and Saturday, resulting in good chances for rain.
Update 00Z sounding vs the 00Z models show that the modeled warm nose that was the problem creating a freezing rain potential was over- done. Have backed out of the freezing rain for tonight and kept it all snow. A weak disturbance will bring a chance of light freezing rain/snow late tonight into early Saturday for mainly the northern zones.
Additionally, a weak mid-level short wave trough will transition the region between 09Z tonight and 00Z tomorrow afternoon. This is going to allow the CWA to see surface ridging to build across the central portion of the country.
/Issued 250 PM EST Fri Dec 2 2016/ High pressure continues over the area but will be weaken and push east as next frontal system nears the region.
High clouds were increasing from the west this evening, due to increasing upper level moisture from a digging upper trough/low pushing across the desert southwest and northern Mexico. North winds 10-15 knots becoming NE 15-20 knots on Sat as High Pressure builds north of the region, with seas continuing in the 3-5 ft range.
As advertised for several days now, the upper trough is in the process of closing over across the Desert Southwest this afternoon. As the low closes off, some slight upper level ridging down stream will build across our area through Saturday.
High pressure slides east from the Midwest, with low level winds veering more ENE daytime as it does so.
Weak front has moved south into the Keys this afternoon with high pressure building with drier air moving into the region. North to northeast flow returns with gradient strengthening as high pressure continues to build over South Florida. During the weekend, ridge will gradually drift east into the Atlantic waters returning east to southeast wind later in the weekend across S Florida. Ridge will keep us under drier conditions for the most part with no significant rainfall expected. Models continue to show an upper trough digging southeast along the west coast into the Desert Southwest this weekend and strengthens as it moves across the Central Plains.
Patchy rain and showers continue this late afternoon across South Texas as the coastal trough develops. The north movement of the boundary will then begin to retrograde back to the south as a cold front keeping elevated rain chances through the evening and overnight hours, with best chances across the Victoria Crossroads and Northern Coastal Bend. Strong onshore flow just above the surface is expected to continue as the coastal trough deepens. Warmer conditions over the waters will allow for strong winds to mix down, keeping Small Craft Advisory conditions through the evening.
623 PM EST Fri Dec 2 2016 High pressure will be reinforced from the northwest and as a result the weather will remain dry through Saturday.
The cold front is now well south of our region leaving us with sunny skies and much drier air. A large ridge of high pressure will move from the mid Mississippi Valley tonight to the Ohio Valley and mid-Atlantic coast by late Saturday. The pressure gradient between the high pressure to our north and the frontal boundary to our south with result in enhanced easterly flow. Winds will start northeasterly and gradually veer around more easterly as the high center moves by to our north.
415 PM MST Fri Dec 2 2016 Light snow showers have been falling from Laramie to Cheyenne over the past few hours ahead of a weak upper trough that is positioned across western WY.
326 AM EDT WED JUN 15 2016 High pressure will keep the area dry today with above normal temperatures. A few cirrus clouds are present this morning across central NY and northeast PA as we continue to be along the outer edge of the uppr lvl ridge. This system will send an elevated warm front across the region early this morning. There is a slight chance for a rumble of thunder over the region as northern edge of the mid-lvl theta-e ridge pushes into the region, but since the majority of the precip is expected to be rain, left rain showers as the dominant ptype.
239 AM MDT WED JUN 15 2016 Broad upper ridging develops tonight as upper high strengthens across central and southern Texas. After morning lows in the low to mid 50s in far eastern Colorado and upper 50s to mid 60s east of the state line afternoon temperatures (per 850mb) are forecast to increase another 8F to 11F from Tuesdays readings. Overnight lows will gradually increase through the weekend falling only into the higher 60s, with some areas in the lower 70s. As the high becomes more elongate over the southern half of the U.