Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
BEFORE THE AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM BEGINS TO FEEL THE INFLUENCE OF AN APPROACHING N STREAM TROF AND PUSHES NE TOWARD THE AREA. MODELS ARE SHOWING TROPICAL MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT ALSO PUSHES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN HIGH IN THE LONG-FETCH ONSHORE FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE WEDGING INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTH TODAY. LOW PRESSURE AND INCREASING MOISTURE MOVING NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL AFFECT THE AREA TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION MID-WEEK, BRINGING A SLIGHT COOL DOWN, THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS, AND POSSIBLY EVEN SOME RAIN. NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN NEVADA REMAIN BETWEEN A TROUGH OFF THE PACIFIC COAST AND A RIDGE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
404 AM MDT MON SEP 28 2015 THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL FLATTEN TODAY WITH THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMING MORE WNW BY TONIGHT. AS FAR AS PCPN POTENTIAL THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FOR ISOLD TO WDLY SCT STORMS TO DVLP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTN. AS FOR TEMPS READINGS WILL BE COOLER THIS AFTN ACROSS NERN CO AND RANGE FM THE LOWER TO MID 70S NR THE WY BORDER WITH MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS LINCOLN COUNTY.
121 AM EDT MON SEP 28 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MONDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION ON TUESDAY.
332 AM EDT MON SEP 28 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MAINE WILL DRIFT WELL OFFSHORE BY LATER TODAY. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.
308 AM CDT MON SEP 28 2015 WX MAP SHOWS MAIN FEATURE WITH LOW PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT OVER SE TX/NW GULF. SO WILL KEEP THE HIGHER POPS THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER 80S. EXPECT THE ENHANCED LIFT TO MOVE FURTHER N AND E AS THE UPPER LOW AXIS SLOWLY DRIFTS NE OVER LA. A PREDOMINATE UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL CONTINUE DIGGING ACROSS THE EASTERN U. DML LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT OVER THE WESTERN GULF WILL MAINTAIN OCCASIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY INTO TUESDAY. DIMINISHING AS THE CENTER OF THE LOW MOVES CLOSER TO THE COAST LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. RAIN CHANCES WILL THEN DIMINISH FOR MID- WEEK AS THE LOW PRESSURE WEAKENS AND ADVANCES EAST. AND FAIR WEATHER HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS OVER THE REGION FROM THE WEST.
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED SOUTH UP TO THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHERN WYOMING WITH A WIND SHIFT FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTHEAST BEHIND THE FRONT.
Expect a partly to mostly cloudy night with low temps in the lower 60s. Very weak pattern aloft as an upper low along the Texas Gulf coast has cut itself off from the westerlies. Flow over the Ohio Valley is very light through a deep layer, with enough low-level moisture pooling along a weak inverted sfc trof to support a few light showers.
The upper low along the Texas coast will open up and some of the energy will be drawn northward, as a northern stream system digs into the Great Lakes by early Tuesday. At the surface, an inverted trough is expected to set up just south/southeast of the forecast area, so northerly winds will develop quickly Tuesday.
327 AM EDT MON SEP 28 2015 HIGH PRESSURE IS OFF THE COAST AND WINDS ARE MORE SOUTHERLY. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA LATE TUESDAY. COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL FOR THE SECOND PART OF THE WEEK. WEAK UPPER TROF LIFTING THRU WILL PRODUCE SCT SHOWERS. FIRST PROBLEM IS THE COLD FRONT FOR LATE TUE.
Early morning temperatures were in the low to middle 60s across the region. We should see temperatures continue to fall a little bit over the next several hours with temps bottoming out in the upper 50s the typical cool spots and in the lower 60s elsewhere. For today, upper low over east TX will continue to slowly make a trek northeastward throughout the day. Highs look to range from the lower 80s in the north where filtered sunshine will allow the surface to heat a bit more. Deep moisture will surge northward in earnest tonight as the upper level low moves closer to the region. Lows tonight look to cool into the lower-mid 60s.
330 AM CDT MON SEP 28 2015 UPPER LEVEL FLOW CAN BE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING PROGRESSING CYCLONICALLY AROUND A LOW PRESSURE CENTER LOCATED IN THE VICINITY OF THE UPPER TEXAS COASTAL PLAINS. THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES A LOW PRESSURE AREA CENTERED JUST EAST OF THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURE. BUT WILL LIKELY EXPAND INLAND OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS GULF MOISTURE SPREADS NORTH WITHIN THE DEEP SOUTHERLY FETCH ON THE EAST FLANK OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO OPEN UP INTO A TROUGH AND HEAD FOR THE SOUTHEAST STATES AROUND MID WEEK AS UPPER RIDGING INTENSIFIES FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS TEXAS.
OTHERWISE SWLY WINDS AND WARM ADVECTION WILL PREVAIL WITH THE LOW TO MID LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE SETTLING OVER SRN WI BY LATE IN THE DAY WHILE THE SFC COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE FAR NRN CWA.
THE THERMAL TROUGH WILL SHIFT INLAND AND WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE CASCADES TODAY. WITH THE THERMAL TROUGH HAVING SHIFTED INLAND, CONDITIONS WILL BE MORE FAVORABLE FOR STRATUS TO MOVE INTO THE COASTAL AREAS ON TUESDAY.
650 AM EDT MON SEP 28 2015 HIGH PRESSURE SOUTH OF THE GULF OF MAINE WILL CONTROL AREA WEATHER INTO TONIGHT.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY ACROSS THE FAR EAST OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS AS AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS. A DEEPENING MID LEVEL CYCLONE OFF THE UPPER TX COAST IS FORECAST TO WOBBLE WEST TOWARD DAYBREAK WHICH SHOULD ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR DAYTIME SHOWERS ALONG I-35 AFTER 15Z. UPPER AIR ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWED A TROUGH EXTENDING FROM IOWA TO TEXAS WITH A CLOSED LOW IN IT OVER TEXAS. A RIDGE EXTENDED FROM BAJA CALIFORNIA TO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THE UPPER LOW WILL DRIFT A BIT TO THE EAST AND THE RIDGE IN THE WEST WILL BUILD IN.
336 AM EDT MON SEP 28 2015 CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA AT THIS TIME FEATURE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND SHIFTING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AS A SIGNIFICANT SLUG OF TROPICAL MOISTURE BEGINS TO SHIFT NORTHWARD OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. A COLD FRONT IS TRACKING ALONG THE UPPER PLAINS AND MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY BY TUESDAY. THE MENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST BUT WITH A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC COAST.
SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS A COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA TO NORTHEAST COLORADO. THE SURFACE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TO THE SOUTH. AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL MOVE OVER THE RIDGE AND INTO THE REGION. THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING COME COOLER TEMPERATURES AS WELL. FROM AROUND INTERSTATE 80 AND NORTH IT WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES ARE TRENDING COOLER WHEN COMPARED TO YESTERDAYS FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER NW MEXICO THROUGH MID WEEK. ALSO, BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IS JUST HIGH ENOUGH FOR SOME AFTERNOON CUMULUS BUILDUPS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE (10%) OF A LIGHT SHOWER OVER THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE KAIBAB PLATEAU AND SAN FRANCISCO PEAKS THIS AFTERNOON, AND OVER THE CHUSKA MTNS FOR TUESDAY.
300 AM CDT MON SEP 28 2015 SURFACE MAP EARLY THIS MORNING FEATURES HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY REGION WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH SOUTHWEST MN. RADAR WAS SHOWING SCATTERED BAND OF SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT OVER WESTERN U. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SINK SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS MID-LEVEL TROUGH ENERGY APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS. COOLER/DRIER CANADIAN AIRMASS PUSHES IN ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS MORE TYPICAL OF AUTUMN.
A MEANDERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/PLAINS WITH A H5 RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. THIS HAS BEEN GIVING A SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE PROVIDE BY THE H5 RIDGE. APPROACHING NORTHERN ZONES BY 00Z TONIGHT AS UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO FLATTEN. A SHIFT FROM CONVECTION TO MORE STRATUS PRECIP WITH -RW/-DZ AND EVEN FOG DEVELOPMENT BASED ON SURFACE FLOW ALONG FRONT/RIDGE TO THE EAST. BEFORE AREA BEGINS TO DRY OUT AS HIGH PRESSURE TAKE OVER AS MAIN WX FEATURE GOING INTO WED/WED NIGHT. REGION WILL SEE A ROUND OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPS TUESDAY WITH PUSH OF COOLER AIR BEHIND FRONT.
333 AM MDT MON SEP 28 2015 CURRENT SURFACE OBS ACROSS THE AREA SHOW A WEAK COLD FRONT NEAR THE NORTH PLATTE RIVER VALLEY EXTENDING FROM NEAR DOUGLAS WYOMING SOUTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. EXPECT BANDS OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED TSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF CENTRAL WYOMING AND QUICKLY MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE HIGH PLAINS TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT.
WHILE SCATTERED CONVECTION FIRES UP OVER THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS. WHILE THE TROUGH MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY CONTINUES TO PROGRESS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY.
300 AM PDT MON SEP 28 2015 TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THIS WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTHWEST.
EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE UPPER TEXAS COAST. WITH THE UPPER LOW NEARBY AND SOME DAYTIME HEATING. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER/MID 80S ACROSS THE NORTHERN COASTAL BEND/VICTORIA CROSSROADS TO MID 90S NEAR LAREDO. UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST ON TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT AND BELOW NORMAL HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S CAN BE EXPECTED FROM MID WEEK ON. THE MORNING SHOULD BE DRY BUT UPPER ENERGY EXITING THE UPPER LOW OVER TEXAS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA. FOR TEMPERATURES STUCK WITH WARMER MAV NUMBERS IN THE LOWER 80S BASED ON RECENT VERIFICATION AND MORE SUNSHINE THAN YESTERDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL ALSO BE PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND THIS WILL COMBINE WITH THE UPPER FORCING TO BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS TO THE ENTIRE AREA. WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES IN THE SOUTH CLOSEST TO THE FORCING FROM THE UPPER LOW.
A COUPLE OF THE HIGH-RES MODELS SEEM A LITTLE OVERZEALOUS ON COVERAGE/AMOUNTS BASED ON THE CURRENT REALITY. HIGH TEMPS TODAY WILL BE QUITE A BIT COOLER THAN YESTERDAY IN MANY AREAS. ON TUESDAY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. LEADING TO A DRY AND COOLER DAY ACROSS THE AREA.
PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE SHIELD ARE ATTEMPTING TO PIVOT AROUND THE MAIN CUT-OFF LOW TOWARDS THE FAR SE COASTAL PLAINS THIS MORNING BUT ANGULAR ROTATION IS SUCH THAT IT MISSES AND REMAINS JUST EAST. THE CUT-OFF LOW WILL SHIFT EVEN FARTHER EAST THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY AS ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS APPEAR POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON DUE TO WEAK DAYTIME INSTABILITY.
AND A BROADENING AREA OF UPPER LEVEL LIFT EXPANDS OVER THE AREA AS A TROUGH APPROACHES. THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE AREA ALONG A COLD FRONT ENCROACHING ON THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO REMAIN MILD IN SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. HOLDING IN THE LOWER 60S I 69 SOUTH AND ONLY EDGING BACK INTO THE MID/UPPER 50S FURTHER NORTH. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER CENTRAL CANADA PUSHING EAST WILL DRIVE A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN ON TUESDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE IMPACTED BY THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. BECOMING CAPTURED BY THE STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WITH 850 MB TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE LOWER SINGLE NUMBERS.
342 AM PDT MON SEP 28 2015 Gradual cooling trend through mid-week as high pressure weakens. Persistent pattern will continue today with the trough over the eastern Pacific and ridging over the interior West.
TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EAST ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA AS THE FA REMAINS ON ITS SOUTHERN PERIPHERY. EXPECT CLEARING OVER NE WY WITH WARMER CONDS.
SFC/UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO FORM OVER THE FAR WRN GULF. WITH THE LOWER CLOUD COVER DISPLACED TO THE S/E. AS BREAKS IN THE -RA ALLOW FOR SOME SCT OF THE LOWER CLOUDS. ANOTHER AREA OF -RA/SHRA ALSO LOOKS TO DEVELOP LATE IN THE PERIOD OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY INTO NW AL.
345 AM CDT MON SEP 28 2015 UPPER RIDGE FROM BAJA CALIFORNIA TO THE IDYLLIC MONUMENT ROCKS IN KANSAS WILL REMAIN LARGELY UNDISTURBED TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE CENTER IS STILL FORECAST TO REMAIN ANCHORED OVER BAJA MEXICO WHICH WILL KEEP THE FORECAST AREA ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE HIGH.
UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS WILL BRING CHANCES OF SHRA/TSRA TO VCT.
REGION WILL REMAIN IN A BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IN RESPONSE TO A DIGGING TROUGH JUST OFFSHORE OF THE PACIFIC COAST EARLY THIS WEEK. MODELS CONTINUE TO CONVERGE UPON A SOLUTION THAT BRINGS THIS TROUGH ASHORE. EVOLVING SAID TROUGH INTO A CLOSED LOW BY MIDWEEK. FROM THERE MODELS ALLOW THE THROUGH TO EVOLVE INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER THE REGION FOR LATE WEEK. THIS SCENARIO WOULD PROVIDE FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR LATE WEEK. COOLER FORECAST THU-SAT. THE LOWEST AFTERNOON HUMIDITY WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE ARCO DESERT/INL COMPLEX. UPPER RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD THROUGH MID WEEK.
Chilly mornings at or below freezing in many valleys through.
MSAS ANALYSIS AND SFC OBS SHOWED A COLD FRONT BISECTING MINNESOTA FROM NE TO SW. IN ASSOCIATION WITH A S/W TROF AND THE RRQ OF A 100 KT JET STREAK. MODELS AGREE THAT SHOWERS WILL INCREASE ALONG AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. A S/W TROF AND THE RRQ OF A JET STREAK ARRIVE TODAY AND TONIGHT. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE WSTRN GREAT LAKES REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. MUCH COOLER CANADIAN AIR WILL ARRIVE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.
220 AM EDT MON SEP 28 2015 HIGH PRESSURE IS OFF THE COAST AND WINDS ARE MORE-SOUTHERLY. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA LATE TUESDAY. COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL FOR THE SECOND PART OF THE WEEK. WEAK UPPER TROF LIFTING THRU WILL PRODUCE SCT SHOWERS. FIRST PROBLEM IS THE COLD FRONT FOR LATE TUE.
A DISTURBANCE LIFTING OUT OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ALONG WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL BRING SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. MUCH COOLER WEATHER WILL SETTLE IN FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR SCATTERED STORMS TO DEVELOP IN THE NORTH AS A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE MOVES INTO THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SHORT WAVE AND COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT.
CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA AT THIS TIME FEATURE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND SHIFTING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AS A SIGNIFICANT SLUG OF TROPICAL MOISTURE BEGINS TO SHIFT NORTHWARD OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. A COLD FRONT IS TRACKING ALONG THE UPPER PLAINS AND MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY BY TUESDAY. THE MENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST BUT WITH A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC COAST.
THE COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED FROM NEAR MONTEVIDEO NORTHEASTWARD TO JUST NORTH OF ST CLOUD AND THROUGH FAR NORTHWESTERN WI. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TONIGHT. THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE 30S OVER WEST CENTRAL MN NEAREST THE RIDGE AXIS.
Temperatures are generally running several degrees cooler this afternoon. The area remains under a ridge of high pressure.
WX FEATURES WE ARE WATCHING FOR THIS FORECAST INCLUDE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG THE TX GULF COAST. IMPULSES WILL LIFT NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE TX UPPER LEVEL LOW.
An upper level low currently across eastern Texas early this morning will slowly track east across the Gulf Coast States through mid week. As the upper level low slowly tracks east enough lift may spread north to track a few isolated showers and storms across mainly the eastern Ozarks today into Tuesday. An upper level trough will track east across the northern Plains into the Great Lakes region today into Tuesday night.
The upper low over the Texas coast southwest of Houston will move slowly northeast today and tonight, and should be in southwestern Louisiana by 7 AM Tuesday. To our west, the upper level high over the southwestern states will move little. Lows tonight are expected to be mostly in the lower 60s.
449 AM EDT MON SEP 28 2015 UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS TODAY AND TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT INTERACTS WITH A DISTURBANCE OVER THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC STATES. BOTH DAYS WILL FEATURE WET WEATHER BUT TUESDAY WILL BE THE WETTER OF THE TWO DAYS AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. ON TUESDAY A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM OUR WEST THEN SLOWLY CROSS OUR FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
347 AM CDT MON SEP 28 2015 COLD FRONT HAS MOVED INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND FAR SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA. ANY PRECIPITATION THAT DOES OCCUR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WILL BE MAINLY POST FRONTAL AS THE 850 MB THERMAL RIDGE THAT WILL BE MOVING AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY PROVIDES SOME CAPPING AND WITH THE BETTER MOISTURE TRAILING. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD BE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY TODAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED 850 MB THERMAL RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA AND SFC WIND BECOME SOUTH/SOUTHWEST. SYSTEM PUSHES QUICKLY SOUTH WITH HIGH PRESSURE PUSHING IN BEHIND. HIGH WILL USHER IN MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH SOUTH WITH UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS NORTHEASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION KEEPING TROUGH OVER IOWA. WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES REMAINING.
313 AM CDT MON SEP 28 2015 An upper level low currently located over southeast Texas will bring low chances of showers and thunderstorms to portions of southeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas through Tuesday as it weakens and drifts to the east.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WHILE AN EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA TUE NIGHT INTO WED. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH. WEAK EASTERLY FLOW WILL MAINTAIN CLOUDY COOL CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE OVER THE BLUE RIDGE AND APPALACHIANS. CLOUDS EXPECTED TO LOWER EVERYWHERE LATE TONIGHT WITH DENSE FOG LIKELY OVR MOUNTAIN RIDGES.
347 AM MST MON SEP 28 2015 VERY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL BRING WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEK.
312 AM CDT MON SEP 28 2015 Subtle mid-level height rises across the area will act to keep skies mostly clear today aside from a few cirrus clouds to the south, and will also allow temperatures to rise into the lower 80s across the forecast area. A cold front will slide into the region from the north on Tuesday, with some fairly thick post-frontal moisture bringing quite a bit of cloud cover from north to south during the day. Sprawling high pressure behind the front will dominate the Great Lakes and Mississippi Valleys for the remainder of the week, giving our area cool northeasterly low-level flow.
637 AM EDT MON SEP 28 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MAINE WILL DRIFT WELL OFFSHORE BY LATER TODAY. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.
SURGE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT NORTH OF THE LOW WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED STORMS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO TUE AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE WATER VAPOR SHOWS NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH DROPPING SOUTHEAST INTO SW MANITOBA AND THIS WILL DROP SOUTHEAST TODAY. AT THE SFC EXPECT A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST WITH ITS PASSAGE AND SOME COOLER AIR TO MOVE IN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST INTO ERN ND BY 12Z TUES.
UPPER LOW IS SITUATED OVER EAST TEXAS WITH DEEP MOISTURE ADVECTING INTO THE MIDSOUTH FROM THE GULF. LATEST GUIDANCE SLOWLY MOVES THE UPPER LOW FROM EAST TEXAS NORTHEAST INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY. EVENTUALLY TRANSITIONING TO AN OPEN TROUGH THAT PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. BY TUESDAY EVENING THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL START PUSHING EAST AND PRECIP CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST.
SHWRS/TSTMS MOVING CYCLONICALLY AROUND THE TROUGH ARE GRADUALLY SPREADING NORTH INTO EAST TEXAS AND THE TOLEDO BEND COUNTRY THIS MORNING. SCATTERED CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND SPREAD NORTH ACROSS THE CWA TODAY ALTHOUGH THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS DEEP EAST TEXAS AND INTO N CNTRL LA. LATEST WV VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES SOME MID LVL DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT ON THE ERN FLANK OF THE TROUGH WHICH IS BEING DRAWN UP INTO ERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THE UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DRIFT EAST ALONG THE GULF COAST WHICH SHOULD DISPLACE THE DRIER AIR FARTHER EAST. REDEVELOPMENT ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA IS LIKELY AGAIN DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY DURING PEAK HEATING BUT COVERAGE MAY BE SOMEWHAT LESS AS THE TROUGH AXIS WILL BE EAST OF THE CWA.
BEFORE THE AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM BEGINS TO FEEL THE INFLUENCE OF AN APPROACHING N STREAM TROF AND PUSHES NE TOWARD THE AREA.
THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL NOT MOVE MUCH THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 90S.
410 AM MDT MON SEP 28 2015 GENERALLY DRY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS OUR CWA INITIALLY TODAY IN THE WAKE OF STRONG UPPER TROUGH WELL NORTH OF OUR AREA AND SUPPRESSED HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT TO OUR S/SW.
A WEAK TROUGH ALOFT WILL APPROACH BY MID WEEK BRINGING ONLY SLIGHT COOLING TO THE INTERIOR AND THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW LIGHT SPOTTY SHOWERS OVER INTERIOR HIGHER TERRAIN. THE WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WE HAVE BEEN EXPERIENCING ARE THANKS TO A FLAT UPPER RIDGE ALOFT AND A PROMINENT LOW LEVEL INLAND THERMAL TROUGH. ATTENTION WILL TURN TO A SLOWLY APPROACHING UPPER LOW THAT IS CURRENTLY NEARLY STATIONARY WELL OFFSHORE AT AROUND 35N 140W. AS THIS LOW APPROACHES THE COAST INTERIOR TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN A GRADUAL COOLING TREND.
454 AM CDT MON SEP 28 2015 MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT THE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MEANDER NORTHEASTWARD FROM SOUTHEAST TEXAS INTO LOUISIANA BEFORE OPENING UP AND SHEARING OUT AS IT EVENTUALLY GETS ABSORBED BY A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE WESTERLIES.
ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXTENDING OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. WITH A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED IN THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES WITH A LENGTHY RIDGE PRESSING DOWN THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.
639 AM EDT MON SEP 28 2015 THE STRING OF SUMMER LIKE DAYS WILL CONTINUE TODAY BUT A CHANGE TO MORE AUTUMN LIKE WEATHER WILL BEGIN TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.
TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHWARD UNDER EXPANSIVE RIDGE. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RESPONSIBLE FOR RECENT BOUT OF PLEASANT WEATHER WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN TOMORROW AS A TROUGH APPROACHES THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. MODELS SUGGEST A POST FRONTAL RAIN BAND ALONG THE MID LEVEL TROF WILL DIMINISH AS IT MOVES INTO NW PORTION OF OUR AREA TUE. COOLER POST- FRONTAL AIRMASS SHOULD RESULT IN SLIGHTLY BLO NORMAL TEMPS WED WITH HIGHS IN THE M-U60S AND LOWS IN THE M-U40S.
355 AM EDT MON SEP 28 2015 THE STRING OF SUMMER LIKE DAYS WILL CONTINUE TODAY BUT A CHANGE TO MORE AUTUMN LIKE WEATHER WILL BEGIN TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.
At the lower levels, lower 20s 850-hPa temperatures are expected, which translates to highs in the upper 80s to near 90 degrees Fahrenheit. Through Tuesday, a cold front will traverse across northern Kansas.
MODELS OPEN UP THE LOW AND BEGIN TO SLOWLY LIFT IT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AND EAST TONIGHT AND ON TUESDAY RESULTING IN GRADUALLY DECREASING RAIN COVERAGE ACROSS OUR AREA.
THE AIRMASS WARMS ON MONDAY AS A WEAK UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE 2-7 DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY. THE RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE TUESDAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND WARMER TEMPS.
129 AM EDT MON SEP 28 2015 MOISTURE WILL REMAIN HIGH IN THE LONG-FETCH ONSHORE FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE WEDGING INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTH THROUGH MONDAY.
/ISSUED 313 AM CDT MON SEP 28 2015/ An upper level low currently located over southeast Texas will bring low chances of showers and thunderstorms to portions of southeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas through Tuesday as it weakens and drifts to the east.