Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Models have it surging northward 50 to 100 miles in western and central Idaho this afternoon and evening, then shifting east as a short wave trough comes through from Nevada. This band is associated with an eastward-moving cold front. Instability will slowly increase during the day ahead of the front and we have a slight chance of thunderstorms in Twin Falls County this evening when the cold front gets there. After about 12 to 18 hours without pcpn, the next Pacific short wave trough will bring showers to eastern Oregon Saturday morning, and western-most Idaho Saturday afternoon. High temps will be 3 to 5 degrees cooler today then little change Saturday.
Mid to high clouds mostly over the western Fl panhandle and the adjacent gulf waters early this morning are generally along and east of a departing mid level short wave trof that will continue to shift east and dampen through this morning as broad upper ridge axis over the lower plains shifts eastward over Texas and the lower Ms river valley through 12z sat. As for temps highs will climb to the mid 80s inland and the lower to middle 80s along the coast.
The warmth will not last long as much cooler temperatures are expected on Saturday. While the moisture aloft is there, a Canada highs pressure will filter drier air in the lower levels.
Widespread precipitation continues across the region this morning as an upper level low remains about 200 miles to the west-southwest of the Monterey Peninsula. With that said, widespread precipitation will continue through the morning hours as the upper level low lifts northeast toward the San Francisco Bay Area. While the best chance for thunderstorms remains to our south, cannot rule out the possibility of a few thunderstorms developing over the Central Coast as the upper level low nears the coast this morning.
Dry conditions will persist across western Kansas today as short range models indicate upper level ridging shifting slowly eastward across the Central Plains during the period. A warming trend will continue today as a prevailing southerly flow draws warmer air northward into western Kansas pushing H85 temperatures up around to a little above 20C today. Look for lows only down into the 50s(F) Friday night with the lower 60s(F) even possible across south central Kansas. An attendant cold front is projected to push into western Kansas early Saturday while a prevailing southerly flow ahead of the front draws some moisture northward into central and portions of southwest Kansas.
with high temperatures reaching the low to mid 80s in most locations. A cold front will move through the forecast area on Saturday. Temperatures will be cooler, especially in the north. With the cooler air, there will be an increase in clouds in the north during the afternoon. A cool high pressure builds into the area behind the cold front and Saturday night will be cooler.
313 AM CDT Fri Oct 28 2016 High pressure east of the Ozarks will continue its eastward progression through tonight as a flat upper ridge moves over the center of the country. Developing low pressure over eastern Colorado will begin to shift east as well with a tightening surface gradient allowing for breezy conditions today. Breezy winds will continue into this weekend as a dry cold front approaches the region.
Look for most highs around the 70 to 75 degree range today, with lows tonight in the low to mid 50s. By Saturday, increasing H85 temps and thicknesses under a steady SW flow will allow for temps to jump to near record highs in the low 80s.
The recent trend of dry and quiet weather will continue today, as high pressure remains in control across the Tri-state region.
Radar imagery shows a broad swath of precipitation spreading from San Francisco through Nevada, but no returns currently within our forecast area, mainly as a result of smaller scale ridging between the trough to our west and the wave to the southeast.
329 AM CDT Fri Oct 28 2016 A progressive pattern across North America will result in a weak area of low pressure moving across the upper Midwest and then a high building across the northern Plains today into tomorrow. Rain chances will be minimal across the Northland given the warm frontal zone will be well to the north of the international border, but expect abundant cloud cover as low- level stratus persists while mid/high level clouds move across the region aloft. Overnight cloudy skies will persists in the northwest flow behind the low. Showers possible north of the Iron Range as the cooler air aloft introduces a bit of instability. Cooler Saturday but temperatures still on the mild side of normal. Light northwest winds as high pressure will be building in from the west through the day.
A cold front will approach the area from the northwest today. Next front is on approach into Saturday from the north and leaves the area under the thermal ridge into the afternoon hours, which should make for another day of above normal high temperatures in the upper 70s to lower 80s.
Highs should be slightly warmer than yesterday in most locations, mainly in the mid to upper 80s.
with VFR conditions expected through the rest of this TAF period as high pressure dominates. Aloft, the upper ridge was building into the region from the west. Dry and warm weather is expected Friday and over the weekend, as the upper high pressure ridge becomes the dominate weather feature affecting the region.
420 AM EDT Fri Oct 28 2016 High pressure crosses Today, but maintains dry weather across the area much of the weekend.
622 AM EDT Fri Oct 28 2016 High pressure crosses Today, but maintains dry weather across the area much of the weekend.
616 AM EDT Fri Oct 28 2016 Low pressure will slowly move east through southern New England today, bringing heavy rain for most of the region with snow at the highest elevations. A ridge of high pressure will build in from the west tonight.
142 AM EDT Fri Oct 28 2016 Dry weather can be expected today and Saturday as high pressure builds across the area.
/issued 355 PM EDT Thu Oct 27 2016/ High pressure centered over the Southeastern portion of the country will remain in place through the rest of the week. During the second half of the weekend, both of the GFS and the ECMWF suggest that the area of high pressure will slowly drift towards the west.
356 AM CDT Fri Oct 28 2016 High pressure over the Ohio Valley will move eastward into the Mid Atlantic States.
Some of the high-res models from this evening are hinting that a large portion of the area may see dense fog tonight if sky cover dissipates by late evening. Other high-res models aren't so optimistic keeping the low clouds in and only patchy light fog over much of the area. Cold front continues to progress south and east through the Ohio Valley this afternoon, with chilly NW winds behind it starting temps on their way down already.
Southerly flow ahead of a low pressure area that will move across North Dakota will draw 850mb temperatures close to the 99th percentile across the forecast area with the peak core of warm air moving overhead overnight tonight. Mixing will improve Friday with a surface trof shifting winds around to the northwest. The gradient will weaken in the post trof airmass so winds are not expected to be strong but the degree of mixing will counter any weak cold advection and thus we should see widespread temperatures some 15 to 25 degrees above average for Friday, falling shy of records however. An area of high pressure will move south out of Canada over the course of Saturday, but we will also see a weak wave traverse the area.
WV imagery clearly showing the upper ridging over TX and an upper low over the Gulf south of LA. The upper low will retrograde to near the Lower TX coast by Saturday morning so this should keep the moist inflows going across SETX and focus rain chances mainly over the Gulf waters and possibly into the coastal counties. With the upper ridge dominating the weather while traversing TX expect temperatures to continue well above normal through the weekend.
422 AM CDT Fri Oct 28 2016 Water vapor imagery indicates eastward expanding upper ridge over the mid-section of the country with cirrus spilling out across the Plains. This general trend will continue on through the weekend with a slight uptick in temperatures due to the eastward expanding ridge axis becoming more east-west oriented across the Gulf coast states.
120 AM EDT Fri Oct 28 2016 High pressure will move across the area tonight providing fair weather. Southerly flow behind the high will result in a warming trend Friday and Saturday with continued dry conditions.
What has occurred is that the low clouds have been clearing overnight from the south and the low clouds have cleared out of DVL, GFK, TVF sites. Low pressure will move east through southern Manitoba today and a cold front/trough of low pressure will move through with winds shifting the west over eastern ND this morning-midday and into NW/WC MN later today. Some clearing Saturday night with high overhead will give lows near the freezing mark.
255 AM MDT Fri Oct 28 2016 Current surface analysis shows low pressure over southeast SK, with warm front extending southeast through the central and eastern Dakotas. A cold front extends southwest from the low across MT into southern ID. Upper level analysis shows ridge axis over the high plains, with low pressure remaining off the west coast. Warm weather will continue across the area today, before cold front to the northwest sags south across the area later today and tonight. A little snow could mix in across the highest elevations of the Black Hills late tonight/early Saturday. Cooler air in place with the clouds will keep highs only in the upper 40s to mid 50s.
A 22Z regional surface analysis shows high pressure centered over southern GA with lower pressure to our south. An upper level trough stretches across the Gulf of Mexico and satellite imagery shows upper level cloud cover associated with this disturbance across the eastern Gulf, along with some convection in the southern Gulf. With deep layer ridging building in, the area will remain dry and temperatures will remain above normal. High temperatures will be in the mid to upper 80s inland to the low to mid 80s along the coast - this is around 10 degrees above normal.
453 AM EDT Fri Oct 28 2016 Low pressure will intensify along the New England coast early this morning, then cross the Gulf of Maine this afternoon. High pressure will briefly build later tonight into Saturday morning. Weak low pressure will move across the state later Saturday into Saturday night.
120 AM EDT Fri Oct 28 2016 Building high pressure will ensure dry, but cool weather today. Warmer temperatures on Saturday. High pressure and warm advection will decrease cloud cover today, allowing temperatures to warm just a bit, but still remain below seasonal averages. Upper level flow will become zonal on Saturday, but we will still see an influx of warmer air, as the lower and mid-level flow turns to the southwest.
319 AM CDT Fri Oct 28 2016 Upper level ridging will be in control of our weather through the weekend, leading to another stretch of dry and unseasonably hot conditions across the region. IR satellite imagery this morning shows plenty of high-level moisture cresting around the northern periphery of this area of high pressure, and these high clouds will invade through the day. In terms of fog potential this morning: while we can't rule out a few of our cooler locations experiencing some visibility reductions this morning, any coverage looks to occur on a very limited basis, which precludes any mention in the worded forecast at this time. Late tonight, a jet streak will emerge out over the High Plains which will result in lee cyclogenesis across western Kansas.
An upper-level ridging is in control of the short-term period. High temperatures are forecast to range from the lower to mid 80s with overnight lows in the mid 60s over most locations.
Dry conditions will persist across western Kansas today as short range models indicate upper level ridging shifting slowly eastward across the Central Plains during the period. A warming trend will continue today as a prevailing southerly flow draws warmer air northward into western Kansas pushing H85 temperatures up around to a little above 20C today. Look for lows only down into the 50s(F) Friday night with the lower 60s(F) even possible across south central Kansas. The trough axis will remain just north of the southwest KS region through Saturday midday before a cold front finally pushes down into western Kansas.
At 2 pm CDT a warm front extended from low pressure centered in southern Saskatchewan through central North Dakota with a cold front entering central Montana. On Friday the cold front will move through bringing northwest winds and cooler air. This will also add some clouds with cooling northwest , Highs will be in the 50s northwest to the lower 70s southeast.
326 AM CDT Fri Oct 28 2016 Upper level ridging will amplify across the southeastern CONUS today behind an exiting trough.
645 AM EDT Fri Oct 28 2016 A weak cold front will move through Eastern North Carolina today.
424 AM EDT Fri Oct 28 2016 Dry weather can be expected today and Saturday as high pressure builds across the area.
High pressure across the upper midwest continues to shift eastward. A tight pressure gradient will setup up across the area ahead of the next cold front over the weekend. Warmest temps are expected in the thermal ridge across the southern 2/3rds of the cwa ahead of an approaching cold front on Saturday.
342 AM EDT Fri Oct 28 2016 A cold front will cross the region and move offshore early this morning.
Otherwise, mild conditions will prevail as low pressure moves through nrn Ontario as min temperatures remain in the upper 40s to lower 50s. Some light lake effect rain showers may be possible Saturday night as colder air (850 mb temps to near -2C) move in with nnw flow behind a cold front.
This low will push a cold front east across the area tonight with winds being the biggest sensible weather change. Precipitation will stay well to the north tonight with the low. An upper trough moving in late Sunday will destabilize things and trigger showers over central Montana.
/Issued 411 PM CDT Sat Apr 1 2017/ Upper level low continued to slowly move across New Mexico this afternoon with scattered showers and thunderstorms ongoing across Western Kansas. The ongoing line of convection across Central Oklahoma will continue to shift eastward this evening as the upper low approaches Western Texas. closer to the apparent upper low.
251 PM EDT Sat Apr 1 2017 Low pressure south of the Gulf of Maine will track south of Nova Scotia and out to sea tonight.
241 PM CDT Sat Apr 1 2017 Numerous showers with a few embedded storms will gradually shift eastward and northeastward across the area tonight with the highest probabilities arriving across mainly Southeast KS toward morning.
437 PM CDT Sat Apr 1 2017 This afternoon a nearly stationary frontal boundary lay across the Four State Region along the Louisiana/Arkansas border into extreme Northeast Texas and warm front from there into South Central Oklahoma and Southwest Oklahoma where it was into an inverted trough of low pressure. To the West a closed upper level low pressure system just South of the Four Corners Region will continue to wobble South and Southeast providing support to the expected production of showers and thunderstorms through the weekend, mainly beginning late tonight/early Sunday morning for our area. The lower parts of East Texas and adjacent sections of lower Northwest and North Central Louisiana may see the heavy rainfall amounts.
413 PM EDT Sat Apr 1 2017 A dry cold front will surge south through NC this evening and overnight. Pacific high pressure will shift southeast from the Midwest across NC on Sunday and then offshore Sunday night.
This morning a nearly stationary frontal boundary lay across the Four State Region along the Louisiana/Arkansas border into extreme Northeast Texas and warm front from there into South Central Oklahoma and Southwest Oklahoma where it was into an inverted trough of low pressure. To the West a closed upper level low pressure system just South of the Four Corners Region will continue to wobble South and Southeast providing support to the expected production of showers and thunderstorms through the weekend, mainly beginning late tonight/early Sunday morning for our area. Upper-level ridge will maintain mostly sunny skies across the region for most of the day. As ridge shifts east, mid-level clouds to increase from the southwest. Temperatures this afternoon to climb into the low to mid 80s across the ArkLaTex.
122 PM PDT Sat Apr 1 2017 Warmer today under high pressure aloft with gusty north winds near the mountains.
The forecast area has been primarily under the influence of the energetic southern stream and affected by a series of cyclones tracking northeast from the trough position over the Desert Southwest. Temperatures will start the period above normal, fall to below normal for a few days as two strong cyclones track south of the area, then rebound late.
12Z CRP sounding showed elevated mixed layer with very steep mid level lapse rates over an a slowly increasing depth of moisture in the lowest 1 km. With low pressure organizing over southwest Texas and thermal gradient increasing, expect wind speeds will be at SCA for the southern bays through the afternoon. Even though low pressure area will be organizing fairly close to the coast along the Rio Grande, winds may continue to be elevated over the Gulf waters tonight.
507 PM CDT Sat Apr 1 2017 Current water vapor imagery reveals upper closed low spinning over east-central NM with indications of subsiding air entering the western Panhandles. Temperatures will hover in the high 30s across the NW zones to high 40s across the SE zones overnight. Otherwise dry conditions are expected and cloud cover should begin to decrease during the late morning and afternoon hours allowing temperatures to reach the low to mid 60s for most areas with split flow aloft.
The effects of the high were noticeable across the Upper Mississippi Valley where the low-level stratus have cleared out/pushed southward. Sfc temps in E Iowa/NW Illinois were in the lower to middle 30s, and the only clouds were mid/upper level cirrus streaming from west to east through the region. This is a classic situation of mid-level temperature advection and saturation outpacing conditions at the lowest levels. The synoptic models are more aggressive with the top-down saturation process, but think they aren't accurately resolving the lower humidity of the near sfc environment.
Also, this return flow will bring much warmer air back into the area quickly. The progressive pattern which has brought a parade of upper level troughs and associated surface fronts will continue, as the period will experience two system passages, each one bringing warm sector convection and cool sector showers.
245 PM CDT Sat Apr 1 2017 Cloud cover pretty minimal this afternoon with only some cirrus extending from the deep low pressure in New Mexico. Highs under the cloud cover will be in the lower to mid 50s while in central SD it could sneak up close to 70.
confidence is high Ridging continues to dominate in our area while a deep cutoff low sits upstream over the desert southwest. The only question is how quickly the low levels saturate. Most guidance does show the lowest levels over at least the western half of the CWA saturated by 00z Sunday, with just the Euro remaining fairly dry across the area at 925mb. As far as temperatures are concerned, am expecting high clouds to build into the region from the southwest ahead of the approaching warm front.
559 PM CDT Sat Apr 1 2017 Cloud cover pretty minimal this afternoon with only some cirrus extending from the deep low pressure in New Mexico. Highs under the cloud cover will be in the lower to mid 50s while in central SD it could sneak up close to 70.
This clearing of the low level cloud deck should continue today, although high level clouds will spread eastward into northeast and central MO well ahead of the storm system over the southwest US. High temperatures will be warmer today due to upper level ridging over the region, and increased solar insolation with less low level cloud cover. Showers should eventually move into parts of northeast and central MO late tonight due to increasing upper level divergence over this area ahead of the approaching upper level trough, and as a southerly low level jet over western MO brings increasing low level temperature and moisture advection into this area. The upper ridge axis will have shifted to the east on Saturday night with flow aloft becoming more southwesterly by daybreak.
Slowly improving conditions are seen for central Pennsylvania as high pressure slowly builds eastward from the Midwest through the Ohio Valley today and Sunday.
1228 PM CDT Sat Apr 1 2017 Short wave ridging over the forecast area this morning, which is helping to keep the lull in the precipitation going through at least most of the day today. At the surface a ridge of high pressure is dominating the area, bringing steady northeast winds and cool air. Rain should gradually start to move into the area from west to east Saturday night into Sunday morning as a closed off low slowly lumbers its way eastward and into the High Plains. Good moisture advection ahead of the mid/upper trough as well as the low level trough should provide enough moisture to produce areas of rain through the day on Sunday.
The shift of the flow will also bring cooler air into the area for Sunday, as high temperatures of mostly mid 50s to mid 60s today cool mostly into the 50s for Sunday.
Sunday night/Mon: Closed upper level low pressure (actually two impulses over western NM and AZ) will eventually move across northern Mex and then northeast into eastern OK by 12z/7am Mon. Then finally showers with the upper low will linger into Mon. The upper low will take on a slightly neg tilt as it moves into our area, but the question will be the quality of moisture return and instability. Thu: The overall pattern will become more amplified with the exiting upper low slowing over the Midwest. Some showers (and certainly clouds) will rotate around the low Thu with cool temperatures. Fri-Sat: The upper low will slowly pull away from our area with drier air and a warming trend.
253 PM CDT Sat Apr 1 2017 Satellite indicates a near vertical low pressure system over western NM with a strong push of warm air advection and moisture convergence over central Kansas. This added lift, moisture convergence, isentropic lift in the low levels, and low level jet will culminate in a broad area of rain showers and isolated elevated thunderstorms tonight into Sunday morning.
411 PM CDT Sat Apr 1 2017 Upper level low continued to slowly move across New Mexico this afternoon with scattered showers and thunderstorms ongoing across Western Kansas. The ongoing line of convection across Central Oklahoma will continue to shift eastward this evening as the upper low approaches Western Texas. closer to the apparent upper low.
The light rain associated with a departing cold frontal boundary has ended across the region this morning. Increasing southerly winds tonight as the high moves east should not favor fog formation assuming the inversion has been washed out which the models show.
A few showers will linger through Sunday as a weak upper level trough crosses the area.
328 PM EDT Sat Apr 1 2017 Dry weather will continue as the upper ridge moves across the forecast area through Sunday. Moisture will increase into the lower MS River Valley Sunday afternoon ahead of a southern stream short wave.