Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
710 PM EDT SUN SEP 4 2016 An expansive area of high pressure will remain across New England and maintain the dry weather pattern through mid-week.
Water Vapor imagery showing the upper low that was over the Great Basin area early today is slowly moving east/northeast and is currently over southern Idaho. The upper low and trough move northeast across north central Montana and into southern Canada by late in the day Monday.
70/DD (Issued 617 PM CDT SUN SEP 4 2016) For 00Z TAFs: With high pressure layered across the mid/srn Atlantic Basin in control of the overall wx pattern, VFR conds are generally xpcted through the TAF period. 09 (Issued 232 PM CDT SUN SEP 4 2016) Deep layer ridging remains firmly in place across much of the southeast US and will not really be budging much at all through the next several days. In fact, both GFS and ECMWF have the 500hPa ridge strengthening over the region through mid week to around 595-597dam.
The high resolution convective allowing models show another round of storms developing this afternoon. Temperatures will remain warm in the low 90s through mid week before cooling to the low 80s by the weekend.
Convection that was along the coast of northeast Mexico early this morning has surged northward across the lower Texas coast into the area this afternoon. Upper level ridge over the southeast United States will build to the southwest on Monday and push higher moisture axis to the north.
Convective temperatures will range between 85 and 87 degrees and forecast soundings support max temperatures in the lower 90s.
A bit warmer with temperatures climbing into the upper 80s to low 90s for much of the CWA. Elongated upper ridge remains in place extending from the Great Lakes southwestward into Texas. However slight, this may allow the incoming Pacific trough to push the associated cold front through a bit sooner than previously thought.
(ISSUED 646 PM CDT SUN SEP 4 2016 ) High pressure surface and aloft will slowly shift east through teh period.
The net result has been to hold afternoon temperatures in the 70s so far, except the sunny far south, which is in the lower 80s. The warm advection will continue, and this will be noticeable tonight as a 7 to 12 mph wind blows all night long, and lows only drop to the lower to mid 60s. Monday, with partly cloudy to mostly sunny skies, and strong warm advection, highs should return to the mid to upper 80s, with dewpoints in the upper 60s to around 70 will provide heat index readings in the lower 90s in some areas.
A trough centered just east of Bismarck this afternoon will be the focus for thunderstorm development. The main trough will exit the area tonight, with a slight break in the shower/thunderstorm activity overnight before another wave moves into western North Dakota Monday morning.
Activity will increase beginning midday Monday as disturbance rotates around upper anticyclone.
723 PM EDT SUN SEP 4 2016 A blocking ridge aloft will keep TS Hermine offshore, though it will linger off the NJ coast through midweek.
Low-layer convergence along this trough, coupled with abundant deep layer moisture, were producing bands of very heavy rain this evening.
919 PM CDT SUN SEP 4 2016 Earlier convection has dropped some cooler air across parts of the southeastern quadrant of the CWA. although a better fetch of moist air and proximity to the upper low may bring a little better coverage across the area tomorrow.
505 PM MDT SUN SEP 4 2016 Mean western conus trough and associated impulses will continue to affect the region in the period. Convection chances will continue through the night as the main jet streak and upper trough lifts over the region. Cooler conds expected nw 2/3 with highs slightly below seasonal norms most areas, coolest over far nw areas.
1001 PM MDT SUN SEP 4 2016 An energetic trough was progressing through the northern Great Basin this evening. A dry breezy SW flow will dominate elsewhere on Monday as the Great basin trough deepens.
The front will gradually sag south of the area tonight as high pressure begins to build south from the Great Lakes and brings slightly cooler and drier conditions by late tonight.
720 PM EDT SUN SEP 4 2016 A ridge of high pressure will remain in place across the Ohio Valley through mid week as a tropical system remains anchored off of the east coast. This period will be characterized by a return to mid-summer temps and humidity - and this represents the high confidence area of the forecast.
As high pressure builds over the Atlantic by mid week, a typical summer weather pattern should return to South Florida. By late afternoon, light east winds in the lower levels will allow for a sea breeze convergence over the western interior.
An upper level ridge centered to our east will strengthen and build westward across Texas by midweek.
1210 AM EDT Mon Sep 5 2016 High pressure will maintain dry weather and warm temperatures through midweek. High pressure will maintain warm and dry conditions.
1023 PM EDT SUN SEP 4 2016 Fair weather expected to continue through this week, as dry high pressure dominates.
High pressure will continue to slowly slide east tonight and Monday.
Similar to last night, anticipate all the low level moisture in concert with non-negligible southerly flow to result in some patchy fog and low stratus around by daybreak Monday, especially over the southeast half of zones. Temperatures today have warmed into the lower 90s across the region and dewpoints are running in the lower to mid 70s. The summer pattern will continue through most of the week as an upper ridge will prevail over the region. This will result in highs in the 90s each day and overnight lows in the lower to mid 70s.
Otherwise, winds will mix to S/SSW on Monday in return flow around high pressure. Interestingly, the strongest of the upper level ridge is a localized dome directly over the heart of southeastern Michigan, a feature that is the ridge component to a phased wave couplet. Model data suggests the centroid of the upper level ridge will only slowly leak eastward early this week. There will be enough of an influence of this upper level ridge influence and subsidence Monday to keep humidity out of southeastern Michigan for another day.
The higher instability is across western portions of the county warning area. The low level wind shear will be rather strong through a majority of the overnight hours.
742 PM MDT SUN SEP 4 2016 Southwest flow aloft and at the lower levels is ushering drier air in the area.
The current weather map has low pressure across the Plains from Nebraska through the Dakotas with a frontal system extending from northwest Ontario through northeast North Dakota and central South Dakota. The cold front will move through NE MN Monday evening and NW WI overnight. The upper level trough will remain over the high plains through the end of the week.
Water vapor satellite pics are showing the dynamic upper level low responsible for today's rain is located over s-central Idaho this evening. Precipitation development will follow the low as it lifts northeast overnight.
Of some concern for the early morning hours could be that slug of deep moisture moving up from the lower TX coast. Convective temperatures will range between 85 and 87 degrees and forecast soundings support max temperatures in the lower 90s.
Strong low pressure system is now stacked across ern MT with the dry slot across much of the CWA. Surface temps have now risen into the upper 30s across the highest elevations of the BH. however a few wind protected spots may reach near freezing by early Wed morning. Low pressure system will slide NE into Canada Wednesday with dry air across the CWA. Mean upper trof will remain over the region through the end of the week. Forecast models then indicate a deep northern Pacific trough will shift east and support mean western CONUS ridging, shifting east by this weekend over the northern plains.
700 PM CDT Tue Oct 4 2016 500mb upper low continues to spin over eastern Montana this afternoon as seen in IR imagery. Upper ridge through the GreatLakes. Cut off low over Pennsylvania and closed low moving off the Gulf of Alaska into the western Canadian Provinces. At the surface, low pressure will follow a similar track to the upper level closed low, this will allow the pressure gradient to relax with backing light winds to the west expected overnight.
and cold front moving into the plains. /issued 330 PM CDT TUE OCT 4 2016/ Mid-afternoon sfc analysis shows high pressure centered over New England with a mostly serly or srly low-level flow prevailing. Meanwhile a weak trof is noted just off our coastline. Water vapor imagery indicates troffing now in place over the wrn 2/3 of the CONUS with ridging holding firm from the ern Gulf up through the sern states and mid-Atlantic. Short- and medium-range guidance coming into agreement on the combo of the weak sfc trof and a slug of moisture moving out of the nwrn Gulf producing widely scattered showers/few storms tonight and on into morning over mainly the wrn portions of the forecast area.
654 PM CDT TUE OCT 4 2016 The Midwest has been dominated by high pressure for the past few days with relatively warm temperatures and fair weather. The upper ridge over the eastern half of the CONUS is losing ground to the incoming storm and upper trof build and push through the region. Tonight the southeasterly winds will continue with increasing clouds as showers and the occasional rumble of thunder move into the mid Mississippi River Valley along and ahead of a warm frontal feature developing with the approaching storm system to the west. Warmer temperatures tomorrow into the upper 70s and lower 80s, but tempered by the showers and clouds with the warm front.
Regional radar-derived winds reveal that the flow in the lowest 3000 feet continues to gradually veer, and is already considerably more veered than it was 24 hours ago.
848 PM EDT Tue Oct 4 2016 Region will be between high pressure to the North and a trough just to the South Tonight. Enhanced pressure gradient between a trough of low pressure just to the South and high pressure building to the North will result in elevated winds and seas Tonight into Tomorrow.
It appears the low-level wind field will veer a bit more than this morning, which could spare our western Metroplex sites (FTW, AFW) from the brunt of the MVFR cigs. Troughing will persist the next couple of days across the Rockies and Northern Plains. We will remain underneath relative ridging between this and Hurricane Matthew, assuring unseasonably warm and humid conditions will prevail. But as the mid-latitude trough to our northwest begins approaching our longitude, a cold front will begin surging into the Southern Plains.
754 PM EDT TUE OCT 4 2016 A pressure ridge will extend along the Appalachians with an inverted trough just off the Southeast coast through Wednesday. Model guidance and forecast soundings indicate increasing moisture in the lower levels and stratus clouds expected to move into the region from the northeast during the predawn hours. Should see overnight lows in the low to mid 60s with some cool advection from northeasterly flow.
Thunderstorms were developing late this afternoon across central Kansas along an advancing but weakening cold front.
Continued quiet conditions through the TAF period with high pressure in control.
The Midwest has been dominated by high pressure for the past few days with relatively warm temperatures and fair weather. The upper ridge over the eastern half of the CONUS is losing ground to the incoming storm and upper trof build and push through the region. Tonight the southeasterly winds will continue with increasing clouds as showers and the occasional rumble of thunder move into the mid Mississippi River Valley along and ahead of a warm frontal feature developing with the approaching storm system to the west. Warmer temperatures tomorrow into the upper 70s and lower 80s, but tempered by the showers and clouds with the warm front.
High pressure will remain centered north of the waters over the next couple of days.
850 PM EDT Tue Oct 4 2016 High pressure centered in the northeastern states will keep dry weather in place through the end of the week.
Tomorrow afternoon is looking dicey over the higher terrain. Should see narrow bands of showers developing over the higher terrain tomorrow afternoon in response to the lift from upper level jet streak. We are little worried that these showers may result in temperatures wet bulbing to near freezing in elevations above 8000ft which may cause some snow to develop fairly early on.
726 PM EDT TUE OCT 4 2016 A pressure ridge will extend along the Appalachians with an inverted trough just off the Southeast coast through Wednesday. Fair weather continues this afternoon with surface ridging east of the mountains emanating from high pressure over New England. An inverted trough along the coast is resulting in showers offshore. Model guidance and forecast soundings indicate increasing moisture in the lower levels and stratus clouds expected to move into the region from the northeast during the predawn hours. This along with some light wind in the boundary layer may impact overnight lows but still expect lows in the lower 60s with some cool advection from northeasterly flow.
Radiational cooling and ridging aloft should keep any pop up showers tonight confined to Gulf waters. A highly amplified upper level trough extending from the mid Atlantic states to southern Mexico will gradually weaken over the next 24 hours, while a large upper trough continues to settle over the western conus.
930 PM EDT TUE OCT 4 2016 A quiet evening across the region with high pressure in control. Chattanooga Airport, TN 63 85 56 85 / 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 58 84 54 83 / 0 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 59 84 54 83 / 0 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 54 78 49 82 / 0 0 0 0.
922 PM EDT Tue Oct 4 2016 High pressure will maintain dry and warm weather until the approach of a cold front this weekend. With 9:15pm update, cleared out skies during the evening, but increased stratus in eastern counties that should bleed over the ridges from central Pennsylvania and Maryland. High pressure over the Northeast CONUS should maintain dry weather through mid week with temperatures about 5 degrees above the averages. Thereafter, the upper-level ridge axis is projected to shift ewd on Thu/Fri, leaving the forecast area beneath weak swly upper flow. Modest sely return flow in the low levels will aid in a slow increase in moisture, with little forcing for ascent beyond upslope flow.
Satellite imagery also shows a well-defined upper low off Vancouver Island, which is moving our way.
731 PM EDT Tue Oct 4 2016 An upper level low, which has impacted our weather for several days, is finally exiting off the east coast.
100 AM EDT Wed Oct 5 2016 A ridge of high pressure along the northern New England coast will provide an easterly flow of moist air at low levels over the region through at least mid week.
1036 PM CDT Tue Oct 4 2016 Light winds will likely persist overnight, keeping temperatures a little warmer than otherwise. Temps currently are in the low to mid 70s, with gradual falls into the 60s late tonight. Light winds are expected to maintain a presence overnight, keeping temperatures a little warmer. Temperatures by daybreak will likely be in the 60s at most locales, although a few upper 50s are possible in normally cooler sheltered valleys in the east.
In the middle and upper levels(700-200 mb), latest available IR imagery overlaid as of 500 pm, overlaid with model streamline analysis depict a sharp and narrow middle and upper level trough axis situated from Georgia to Belize. To the east, latest available CIMMS satelitte steering layer analysis from the University of Wisconsin illustrated the the strongest middle and upper level ridging is located over the Central Atlantic, with an attendant ridge axis poking westwards to North Florida.
Given the low temperature forecast, have included rain snow mix as a possibility through the morning especially along any locally higher terrain where temps might dip a few degrees cooler than surrounding areas. Large upper low continues to impact our forecast area this afternoon. Water Vapor imagery is showing this low currently just north of Miles City with a slow northeast movement. This low continues to wrap moisture around the backside across north central into south central Montana. Temperatures across the area struggled to make it into the lower 40s today. A colder pocket of air associated with the upper low was located across Custer County this afternoon as temperatures cooled into the middle 30s. We don't anticipate this snow to last more than a couple more hours or so as the upper low will be shifting northeast across northeast Montana.
/issued 400 PM CDT TUE OCT 4 2016/ (Tonight and Wednesday) A broad upper-level trough will occupy the western and central CONUS through tomorrow. An upper-level closed low over the northern Rockies will lift north over Canada by tomorrow while another upper-level low will move southeastward out of the Pacific Northwest and reinforce the deep upper-level trough over the western CONUS. Morning lows will again be in the upper 60s across the area with afternoon highs tomorrow in the lower 90s.
Latest satellite/radar imagery shows the deep upper-level low pressure system now at the MT/ND/Saskatchewan border. Extensive moisture is still wrapping around the west side of the low center, producing light rain through Hill/Chouteau/Blaine/Fergus counties. Meanwhile, a second area of valley rain/mtn snow is occurring from near Craig northwestward to East Glacier, ahead of a weak secondary trof in the ID Panhandle/western MT. Upper level low moving into SK tonight will continue to circulate moisture along with low clouds and light precipitation across eastern N-central MT terminals tonight including KHVR and KLWT with continued MVFR to occasional IFR conditions conditions tonight and improvement expected Wednesday. To the west, additional moisture wrapping around the low will bring scattered showers with most persistent activity over the continental divide where Mtn obscurations will be widespread.
Some of the incoming guidance is suggesting some sct activity along the Highway 59 corridor tomorrow w/ heating.
An upper level low will move into Southwest Washington late tonight and Wednesday.
723 PM EDT TUE OCT 4 2016 High pressure through much of the work week. Matthew from the south and an upper trough from the west will combine for modest rain chances this weekend. High pressure maintains control of our weather from its position over the northeast U. Temperatures between the lower MAV and higher MET for lows tonight as boundary layer flow will make for conditions a bit less than ideal for radiative cooling. Dry conditions with high pressure overhead.
806 PM EDT TUE OCT 4 2016 Aviation A cold front will bring the threat of showers and thunderstorms to the area Wednesday afternoon into early evening.
904 PM EDT Tue Oct 4 2016 A ridge of high pressure along the northern New England coast will provide an easterly flow of moist air at low levels over the region through at least mid week.
There's some concern that places currently receiving rainfall may end up fogging in by morning if skies can clear off and if winds go light and variable within this slow to move out surface trof over far eastern South Dakota. For tonight, a short wave trough will lift northeast across eastern SD.
Update A low pressure center over northwestern North Dakota continues to push precipitation over Northeastern Montana.
For 00z Aviation discussion below Main short term concern is timing of secondary wave of thunderstorms tonight which will be associated with the sharp cold front. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms continued to develop ahead of a sharp cold front across the eastern Dakotas. The cold front will have moved through the forecast area by tomorrow, shutting off the precip and introducing slightly lower dew points and temperatures across west central MN. However, the low level thermal profile immediately behind the front won't be all that much cooler, which explains why we still expect highs in the mid 60 to near 70 across most of the area.
For 06z Aviation discussion below Main short term concern is timing of secondary wave of thunderstorms tonight which will be associated with the sharp cold front. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms continued to develop ahead of a sharp cold front across the eastern Dakotas. The cold front will have moved through the forecast area by tomorrow, shutting off the precip and introducing slightly lower dew points and temperatures across west central MN. However, the low level thermal profile immediately behind the front won't be all that much cooler, which explains why we still expect highs in the mid 60 to near 70 across most of the area.
923 PM EDT Tue Oct 4 2016 A ridge of high pressure along the northern New England coast will provide an easterly flow of moist air at low levels over the region through at least mid week.
1050 PM EDT TUE OCT 4 2016 A pressure ridge will extend along the Appalachians with an inverted trough just off the Southeast coast through Wednesday. Model guidance and forecast soundings indicate increasing moisture in the lower levels and stratus clouds expected to move into the region from the northeast during the predawn hours. Should see overnight lows in the lower 60s with some cool advection from northeasterly flow.
Increasing southerly flow in the low levels of the atmosphere should result in increasing stratocumulus deck developing after midnight and moving into our region from the south.
With some disagreement on the low clouds coverage, will carry a scattered layer for now and wait to see if and how they any low clouds may develop. /issued 400 PM CDT TUE OCT 4 2016/ (Tonight and Wednesday) A broad upper-level trough will occupy the western and central CONUS through tomorrow. An upper-level closed low over the northern Rockies will lift north over Canada by tomorrow while another upper-level low will move southeastward out of the Pacific Northwest and reinforce the deep upper-level trough over the western CONUS. Morning lows will again be in the upper 60s across the area with afternoon highs tomorrow in the lower 90s.
1040 PM EDT Tue Oct 4 2016 A ridge of high pressure along the northern New England coast will provide an easterly flow of moist air at low levels over the region through at least mid week.
Minimum temperatures during the overnight in the low to mid 70s.
508 PM MDT Tue Oct 4 2016 Strong low pressure system is now stacked across ern MT with the dry slot across much of the CWA. Surface temps have now risen into the upper 30s across the highest elevations of the BH. however a few wind protected spots may reach near freezing by early Wed morning. Low pressure system will slide NE into Canada Wednesday with dry air across the CWA. Mean upper trof will remain over the region through the end of the week. Forecast models then indicate a deep northern Pacific trough will shift east and support mean western CONUS ridging, shifting east by this weekend over the northern plains.
726 PM EDT Tue Oct 4 2016 High pressure centered in the northeastern states will keep dry weather in place through the end of the week.
Much cooler weather is expected for the weekend with highs likely only in the lower to middle 60s. Much better scenario sfc and aloft indicated Wed late aftn and evening as prefrontal trough crosses the wrn lakes. Otherwise much warmer temps expected as vigorous swrly flow aides deep mixing for the date with many locations likely flirting with 80. Attention this period focused on approach of lagging srn Rockies disturbance timed with eastward cold frontal boundary passage. Primary dynamical influence expected Fri night as aforementioned upper trough and attendant cold front sweep through the great lakes. After that expansive ridge builds in through the mid MS/TN valleys underneath upper level troughing centered across Hudson Bay.