Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
An upper level low approaching the west coast will bring a couple rounds of rain to the area this weekend.
420 PM CDT FRI SEP 30 2016 An upper ridge over the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles will break down and shift east Saturday as a short wave trough approaches the forecast area from the southern Rockies. The NAM and GFS are beginning to trend towards a drier solution and are leaning more towards the ECMWF in tracking the closed upper low across the Great Basin and into the central Rockies. the GFS was bringing the closed upper low farther south near the Four Corners region.
A dry air mass plus afternoon highs in the 70s, overnight lows in the low 50s/isolated upper 40s spell out an enjoyable extension of yesterday's weather-- A stacked low pressure system is centered over the Indiana/Kentucky borderland this afternoon, with an advecting column of dry air continuing its trek into the region.
VFR conditions will continue for the next 24 hours as high pressure prevails over deep south Texas. Surface dewpoints have already fallen to near 60 across the northern ranchlands with values still near 70 in the Lower RGV. Some mid-high clouds may spill over the top of the ridge and stream by from time-to-time, but expect a lot of sunshine overall. Friday night low temperatures will be in the 60's most areas, apart from the coast where they will be in the low 70's.
Tonight Through Saturday A large Pacific low pressure trough off of the Pacific Northwest coast will move inland towards western Wyoming bringing increased clouds and showers with isolated afternoon and evening thunderstorms Tonight and Saturday.
1225 PM CDT FRI SEP 30 2016 Upper low continues to spin near Louisville this morning, with periodic showers pushing westward into Illinois. No real change expected in this pattern expected through this evening, before the low finally starts to move northward after midnight. 07z/2am water vapor imagery shows center of persistent upper low centered over central Kentucky. Scattered showers continue to pivot around the low, with the most concentrated area of rain immediately to the north of the center over southern Indiana/far northern Kentucky. With upper low slowly lifting back northward and lapse rates steepening, MUCAPE values are progged to reach the 600-1000J/kg range across the east later today. Upper low will continue to lift northward into northern Indiana by Saturday evening.
101 PM CDT FRI SEP 30 2016 Satellite clearly shows the Low is rotating across the mid Ohio river valley attm. Low clouds will again hang around tonight, even as the Low starts to lift north again, headed back toward the Great Lakes. Tmrw nite, these chances will diminish for good, as the Low finally makes its way back to the Great Lakes.
/18Z TAF/ Surface analysis has high pressure all through the Plains and Texas allowing for light NE winds mainly along the coast.
335 PM CDT Fri Sep 30 2016 Overall another nice fall day with high temperatures reaching the low 80s this afternoon. High pressure over the area should allow for calm winds and clear skies. Water vapor imagery and upper air analysis still show closed upper low over the Ohio River Valley but the upper level ridge over Texas and the plains has flattened some in response to the upper low over the Pacific Coast. Upper level low over the Ohio river valley should begin to move NE over the Great Lakes as a deep trough takes shape over the West Coast.
An upper low drops southward off the OR/WA coast this weekend, bringing a chance of showers and cooler temperatures to the area.
Have also lowered temperatures in many areas where clouds and persistent showers will keep values down in the lower to mid 50s. Afternoon temps will be a few degrees cooler today than yesterday as mostly cloudy skies will prevent much diurnal heating. By Saturday night, the low will be centered over the great lakes region. The positioning of the low Saturday will still continue to impact the weather over the northeast. Saturday will be another chilly day with temps reaching the low to mid 60s. During this period, model consensus continues to point towards a gradual opening up/lifting out of the pesky upper low/trough that has been plaguing the region the last several days.
342 PM CDT Fri Sep 30 2016 Upper level low pressure system over the IN/KY border forecast to move into northern IN by Sat afternoon. Elsewhere an upper level ridge axis from the Dakotas to SASK will shift into MAN by Sat afternoon.
Also less afternoon cloud cover has allowed for warmer temperatures and differential heating. Saturday a trough deepens in the eastern Pacific pulling up a transient ridge over Colorado.
309 PM CDT FRI SEP 30 2016 Upper low will begin to slowly lift to the north northeast late tonight. With the clouds lingering over the region, lows tonight will be a few degrees warmer. As for winds, to lighten up and back to the northwest by midday on Saturday as upper low moves away from region.
1244 PM CDT FRI SEP 30 2016 A closed and nearly stacked low pressure system was centered over TN/KY early this morning. As long as the low pressure system remains nearby, sfc winds will retain a northerly component and substantial cloud cover will be present, particularly over the eastern part of the CWA which will be closer to the low pressure system.
241 PM MDT Fri Sep 30 2016 Narrow band of showers progressing east across the Panhandle now in association with a weak upper impulse lifting northeast over the high plains. Continued quite mild across the CWA Saturday under an upper ridge axis situated over the high plains/central Rockys.
325 PM CDT FRI SEP 30 2016 Manual analysis of 12z upper-air data revealed a deep-layer cyclone over the Ohio Valley, a weak ridge over the southern and central Plains and a substantial trough off the Pacific Coast. An axis of low-level moisture wrapping around the northern and western periphery of the Ohio Valley cyclone is evident in afternoon visible satellite by a westward-expanding strato-cumulus deck across Iowa.
250 PM EDT FRI SEP 30 2016 A weak wave of low pressure and associated frontal zone will drift east across our region through early Saturday, then offshore through the rest of the weekend, while a persistent upper level low over the Tennessee Valley lifts across the Lower Great Lakes. -GIH Dry/stable conditions will prevail sat/sat night as a dry low-level airmass advects into the region beneath an increasingly warm/dry mid- level airmass as the upper level low retrogrades northward away from the region (toward the Great Lakes).
247 PM CDT FRI SEP 30 2016 Only change from 24 hours ago is a bit more sun and warmer temperatures across the far north.
218 PM MDT FRI SEP 30 2016 An upper level short wave trough moves through the apex of the persistent upper ridge in place over the high plains region during the day on Saturday.
On Sat, upper wave is east with weak ridge building, but just enough lingering moisture for some isolated -tsra over the mountains in the afternoon.
211 PM EDT Fri Sep 30 2016 Not a whole lot of change during the past 24 hours or so, with pesky upper level low pressure still spinning away across the lower Ohio Valley. Persistent dry NE low level flow well north of the low center has kept much of the precip at bay across our CWA so far. large area of heavier precip continues to make steady NW progress into Southern Lower Michigan driven by a strong vort lobe rotating around the upper low. So far the forecast is going close to anticipated with the upper low from a couple of days ago stalling out across the southern Ohio Valley.
700 PM EDT Fri Sep 30 2016 High pressure will slowly move northeast of the region through the weekend. Low pressure will track south of the Gulf of Maine Saturday night. A high pressure ridge will dominate the weather for the area through the forecast period. The warm front will continue to move north through the period, and by the end of the period will be over southwestern Maine, and the Gulf of Maine. The ECMWF show the low in the same area 6 hours later. Weak low pressure will track south of the Gulf of Maine Saturday night while high pressure remains ridged across the region. The low will bring rain to Downeast areas Saturday night, with the better chances near the coast. High pressure will keep partly cloudy skies across northern areas Saturday night.
A broad upper level trough was located across the western US. A shorter wave length upper trough was moving onshore across northern CA and will lift east-northeast across the central Rockies early Monday morning, then into the central and northern high plains by 00Z Tue. !--not sent--! After cold frontal passage Monday night, flow aloft become mostly zonal which leads to a mostly dry forecast for the rest of the week.
651 PM CDT SUN OCT 16 2016 High pressure will continue to build into the region from the southeast with widespread VFR cinditions expected.
/This evening through Monday/ Confidence: Medium to High Fog has finally lifted across the area with the slow advance of the warm front this afternoon. Tonight as the western trough moves east. With a deepening trough out West the Upper Midwest will be in a Southwest flow pattern and we will see some record or near record temps in the 80s across the Southern two thirds of the forecast area on Monday.
Then another uptick in shower activity is probable tomorrow afternoon as the next upper trough swings through.
As crazy as it sounds, we could add a couple degrees tomorrow in a corridor from Liberal to Dodge City, as the 850mb thermal ridge expands northeast just ahead of the advancing cold front.
Patchy fog is already developing in spots and will continue overnight as temps fall into the low 60s inland to around 70 near the coast. Also, with the upper system shifting east, an upper ridge over the Southern Plains begins to build east, bringing increasing subsidence and temps well above seasonal, along with more shra/few tsra to mainly area coastal waters and southwestern portions of the fa. Highs for Monday generally in the mid to upper 80s, a bit cooler along the coast.
but CWA will have overnight lows ranging from the upper 40s to the low 50s. combined with Td's in mid 20s to mid 30s will give the CWA low RH readings in the low to mid teens. The stronger gradient coming with the front/trough passage will put the entire CWA under critical Fire Wx conditions.
1040 PM EDT Sun Oct 16 2016 High pressure off the east coast will keep the unseasonably warm weather through midweek. A frontal system brings unsettled and, eventually, cooler weather, late in the week. High pressure in control during the period, with a warm southerly flow in place. With high pressure remaining anchored off the east coast, the southwest flow of unseasonably warm air will continue to dominate this period.
Mid/upper low over the area combining with a moist and unstable onshore flow produced scattered showers and storms along the coastal counties of Ne Fl this eve. The upper low will move southeast tonight bringing drier air aloft into the area from the northwest and bringing an end to the showers. Patchy late night and early morning fog expected with the lowest visibilities inland.
A weak ridge of high pressure will move across the region late Tues into Wed that will bring a brief respite from the active weather pattern.
Cold front currently appx halfway through the cwa and continuing to work east into the James River valley.
Weak upper low over the area still expected to slide southeast and weaken as east-west oriented upper ridge builds into SE CONUS.
726 PM CDT Sun Oct 16 2016 Summer has returned to the Missouri Ozarks as an upper level ridge of high pressure continues to build over the region. Meanwhile, brisk and gusty southerly winds continue as pressure gradients remain tight in the lower atmosphere. Record high temperatures will again be in jeopardy on Monday as an even warmer air mass advects into the region. Temperatures at 850 mb will be a degree or two warmer than what we saw today.
Also, with the upper system shifting east, an upper ridge over the Southern Plains begins to build east, bringing increasing subsidence and temps well above seasonal, along with more shra/few tsra to mainly area coastal waters and southwestern portions of the fa. Highs for Monday generally in the mid to upper 80s, a bit cooler along the coast.
Ridging aloft will maintain a dry forecast with above normal temperatures through the period. Highs will be in the lower 90s along the coast to upper 90s across the Rio Grande Plains, and lows in the low to mid 70s across most location each night.
A warm front is forecast to move into the area from the south, strong warm advection will develop as 850mb winds increase into the 35 to 40 knot range, and a mid level short wave will move into the region. A short wave trough with 850 low will track over northern Wisconsin Monday night for a focus of heavy rain across the north in addition to the severe weather potential.
1149 PM CDT Sun Oct 16 2016 Upper low and short wave trough moving thru NE ND into southern Manitoba. Ahead of short wave trough area of lift combined with an axis of 850 mb instability a narrow area of t-storms formed nr fargo and has now moved just east of the fcst area. Clearing area into E ND and the RRV in dry slot behind the 500 mb short wave trough. Ahead of the trough a narrow axis of instability, most unstable CAPE in the 500 to 1000j/kg range, will continue to nose northward into central North Dakota.
934 PM CDT Sun Oct 16 2016 Cold front currently appx halfway through the cwa and continuing to work east into the James River valley.
1113 PM CDT Sun Oct 16 2016 Summer has returned to the Missouri Ozarks as an upper level ridge of high pressure continues to build over the region. Meanwhile, brisk and gusty southerly winds continue as pressure gradients remain tight in the lower atmosphere. Record high temperatures will again be in jeopardy on Monday as an even warmer air mass advects into the region. Temperatures at 850 mb will be a degree or two warmer than what we saw today.
Lee trough will bring south wind gusts of 25 to 27 KTS at KSJT and KABI respectively, mid morning through afternoon. /issued 257 PM CDT SUN OCT 16 2016/ (Tonight and Monday) Upper level high pressure will continue to reside over the forecast area through tomorrow with clear skies and warmer than normal temperatures. Morning lows tomorrow will be in the mid 60s, around 10 degrees warmer than normal. Afternoon highs tomorrow will again be in the low to mid 90s. around 15 degrees warmer than normal for this date.
911 PM MDT Sun Oct 16 2016 Broad trough over the west coast will matriculate eastward tonight and Monday. Agree with increasing PoPs overnight and Monday, especially over the high country where snow will accumulate. The GFS was not terribly robust with QPF amounts, so expecting snowfall to be mainly in the 4-6 inch category over the higher terrain. Gusty winds across the area today in the wake of departing cold front.
An upper low has shifted east of the Florida Peninsula this evening, and the threat of scattered showers with it. As the upper low moves northeast tonight, the area of high pressure near the Carolina Coast will strengthen, resulting in breezy conditions for the Key by morning.
Upper ridge builds into the region bringing record temps to the region. Cooler for the remainder of the week behind the system. However, 850mb temps are much warmer in latest guidance compared to yesterday. Temps shud rebound to some degree by the weekend, although, another cdfnt on Sun may keep temps cooler.
Showers will diminish Monday morning as a mid level ridge begins to build over the region.
Ahead of the trough a narrow axis of instability, most unstable CAPE in the 500 to 1000j/kg range, will continue to nose northward into central North Dakota.
/issued 257 PM CDT SUN OCT 16 2016/ (Tonight and Monday) Upper level high pressure will continue to reside over the forecast area through tomorrow with clear skies and warmer than normal temperatures. Morning lows tomorrow will be in the mid 60s, around 10 degrees warmer than normal. Afternoon highs tomorrow will again be in the low to mid 90s. around 15 degrees warmer than normal for this date.
Short term forecast remains on track as an upper level low off the east coast of florida continues to push away from the area while a ridge at the surface remains in place leading to persistent winds out of the E/NE. For the end of the week, will have to monitor conditions as a cold front will be approaching the state from the NW and a trough/area of low pressure may be lifting northward over the west Atlantic.
Latest HRRR runs have been hinting at a cluster of thunderstorms developing from north central South Dakota into south central North Dakota late this afternoon and early evening, along the warm frontal boundary as it moves east. A large-scale upper level low/trough extended from the Pacific Northwest across the Rockies and into the Northern Plains. with a trough extending southeastward to another low over southwestern ND/northwestern SD.
In the wake of the mid/upper level wave moving off the Southeast Coast, heights aloft will begin to increase tonight as the upper ridge centered over the Southern Plains begins to expand eastward into the area. Meanwhile, the upper level low centered near the GA/SC border this afternoon is expected to drift slowly E/SE offshore the GA/FL coast tonight. The upper low is expected to continue a slow E/SE drift toward the Bahamas late Monday/Monday night as an upper level ridge strengthens along the TX/LA Gulf Coast and extends northeast through the Deep South toward the Carolinas Monday night. offshore high pressure extending westward into the Carolinas, with dry conditions reinforced by subsidence attendant the upper level ridge building over the region.
The warming trend will continue on Monday as strong upper level high builds across the southern plains.
Warmer than normal temperatures and dry weather will continue through Monday. Surface analysis had a 1022mb high centered over the Carolinas that will continue to weaken as it ridges back to the southwest across the Gulf coast states through Monday as well. Ridging surface and aloft tonight will contribute to a light wind and a mostly clear sky. Monday morning lows will continue above normal in the low to mid 60s. Normal lows run from the upper 40s north to the lower 50s southeast.
An area of low pressure will continue to develop across Northeastern Colorado this afternoon.
Pressure gradient will tighten between prevailing high extending from New England to the Gulf Coast and the next approaching cold front over the Northern Plains tonight. A cold front associated with this wave will develop over the Plains and move southeastward toward Illinois by Monday night.
Meanwhile, latest water vapor imagery and upper air analysis shows an upper level ridge centered over Texas influencing much of the southern US. However, drier, subsident air from the upper level ridge is precluding any significant shower development.
857 PM MDT Sun Oct 16 2016 The winds over the plains have all gone to northeasterlies behind a surge of cooler air. Have upgraded the highlight in the mountains to a High Wind Warning. Any snow accumulations will be in the higher West to southwest facing aspects and will be minimal. with relative humidities in the low teens. On Monday and cold front does move through the area in the afternoon. albeit cooler. There is still some wind through the night on the northeastern plains, so despite clearing skies temps may stay above freezing on most of the plains.
/issued 412 PM CDT Sun Oct 16 2016/ Expect more of the same conditions to continue through the first half of this week as high pressure continues to remain in place just off to the east. Overnight lows will be in the low to mid 70s. Guidance still points to a cold front making it in the area by late this week.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 60 85 62 87 / 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 58 83 60 86 / 0 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 58 83 60 85 / 0 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 53 81 54 82 / 0 0 0 0.
The ground is drying out now from our recent rainfall and weak cold front. The air pressure will be falling off on the surface while heights aloft will be building early in the new week under a ridge ahead our next approaching cold front mid to late work week.
A strong mid/upper level trough is pushing a cold front into central Oregon this evening. The cold front will swing through the forecast area through the rest of tonight and exit into Idaho just before daybreak on Monday. The cold front has recently moved through central Oregon.
/ISSUED / Upper ridge/dry air aloft prevailing across SE TX today. No real change with this pattern of above normal temps/no POPS until maybe Tue night or so when the upper ridge be- gins to weaken/move off to the east. Increasing moisture levels in its wake (courtesy of a persistent onshore flow) will then help to set the stage for increased POPS with the passage of a strong cold front on Thur.
For highs Monday, the GFS is a severe outlier with its 925mb temperatures compared to the cooler NAM/GEM/ECMWF.
GAH PREVIOUS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION: A narrow, weak upper ridge moves across eastern Montana tonight to bring about dry conditions. The pattern aloft changes significantly Monday when a broad trough swings across the West sending leftover marine moisture across the Divide. A cold front associated with the wave will channel colder air into the region resulting in highs a bit lower than Sunday.
These will stream west to east over the northern 1/3 of the forecast area, trailing the upper trough.
high pressure was providing the area with a glorious Mid-October day. A warm frontal boundary will surge northeast into the area this evening as surface cyclogenesis takes place on the leeside of the Northern Rockies.
High pressure north of the area will keep an elevated low level east-northeast flow across the region. Weak trough aloft pushing southward over the area tonight may also lead to a few thunderstorms, mainly over the gulf stream waters. Breezy E/NE winds over the waters decrease slightly to 10-15 knots into late tonight as high pressure north of the area gradually weakens.
/ISSUED 309 PM CDT Sun Oct 16 2016/ The heat will continue for the next few days as upper level high pressure remains over the region.
With the clouds, the temperature has been kept cooler. If it does move out on time, the highs tomorrow should be in the 80s, but if the clouds linger too long will have to watch the temperatures in the northeast/eastern part of the area.
Rain will switch over to showers later today with the highest totals still expected to be over southern portions of our region.
Hand analysis of the surface at 18Z showed the cold front limping into far northern Moffat and Daggett Counties a feature not picked up by models. Snow levels dip to near 8500 feet though expect the highest accumulations at or above timberline where 2 to 4 inches are possible. Drying and subsidence behind the lead wave should allow precipitation to quickly take a downturn tomorrow evening with a cooler night on tap.
Water Vapor Satellite trends place an upper level ridge axis over the Southern Plains and portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley this afternoon. This ridge of high pressure is producing mostly sunny skies and rain free weather across the Mid South this afternoon. As of 2 pm CDT, temperatures across the forecast area are in the lower to middle 80s at most locations.
After 00Z/Tue, mountain precipitation/obscuration should become less prevalent along the Continental Divide and in southwest/central MT as a high pressure ridge builds-in behind the departing disturbance.
Upper ridge will continue to build across the area tonight and Monday. At 900 pm temps were arnd 70 with dewpoints in the lower 60s.
749 PM EDT Sun Oct 16 2016 High pressure off the east coast will keep the unseasonably warm weather through midweek. A frontal system brings unsettled and, eventually, cooler weather, late in the week. High pressure in control during the period, with a warm southerly flow in place. With high pressure remaining anchored off the east coast, the southwest flow of unseasonably warm air will continue to dominate this period.