Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
The ridge over the southwest begins to drift eastward through the rest of the week, becoming centered over the Four Corners by this weekend. Activity is expected to become a bit less widespread, especially across the lower elevations. Temperatures remain about the same through the forecast period, warming slightly as the ridges moves east. Showers and thunderstorms continue across northern Arizona on Thursday and Friday, favoring the high terrain and eastern zones on Friday.
/issued 334 AM EDT Thu Jul 15 2021/ At the surface, the sub-tropical ridge axis will hold just north of Florida today and Friday, setting up generally easterly low level flow across the forecast area and keeping the west coast sea breeze pinned close to the west coast. High pressure ridging from the Atlantic across the Florida Panhandle will hold through the week and into the weekend, with easterly and southeasterly winds, turning onshore near the coast with the afternoon sea breeze.
542 AM EDT Thu Jul 15 2021 The Bermuda High will ridge into the forecast area through the weekend providing a typical summertime pattern.
/issued 1011 AM CDT Thu Jul 15 2021/ Skies are mostly sunny across the Mid-South this morning with temperatures in the low to mid 80s. Current temperatures are in the low 70s and winds are light/calm as high pressure remains across the SE US.
Lows tonight will be in the low 70s. The upper level ridging will begin to shift to the east as a trough to our NW continues to move into our area. Surface ridging placed to our east will continue to pull southerly moisture into our area and bring rain chances back into the southeast region tomorrow. Highs on Friday will top off in the lower 90s. Troughing will begin to take place across the Mid and Deep south this weekend. A cold front will be associated with this trough and this will help increase any storm potential and rain chances this weekend.
243 PM CDT Thu Jul 15 2021 (Issued 243 PM CDT Thu Jul 15 2021) Tonight through Friday night: Low pressure will pass by to the south of Wisconsin tonight into Friday. Models are in decent agreement showing a lot of dry air between 850 and 500 mb across southern Wisconsin just north of the low. Unless the low jogs north, it looks like the forecast area will be dry as the low moves through the region. The low may keep some clouds across the north through tomorrow, but otherwise less clouds are likely tonight into Friday.
Temperatures will remain near normal tonight with lows Friday morning in the low to mid 70s. As the cold front moves closer to the region on Friday, more thunderstorms will move into the Mid-South especially during the afternoon hours. The cold front will continue to push toward the region Friday night with more thunderstorms expected.
416 PM EDT Thu Jul 15 2021 Deep high pressure will prevail through this weekend. Low temperatures are expected to range between the low 70s inland to mid 70s near the coast and around 80F in Downtown Charleston. Deep mid-level ridging will remain across the area through the weekend.
Western Atlantic High pressure ridge axis continues to extend westward across South Georgia.
336 PM CDT Thu Jul 15 2021 Recent water vapor imagery showing moisture streaming ENE from the southern Rockies ahead of a mean trough from Quebec into the central Plains. Some smaller scale waves were rotating through the main trough, notably apparent in north-central Nebraska and in northeast Colorado. The large-scale upper trough axis exits Friday morning with the front passing through a bit ahead of this so will keep some small precip chances in southeastern areas into Friday. Some residual moisture continues to be progged to linger in mainly western areas into the weekend as additional waves move southeast as the upper ridge amplifies in the western states. The upper ridge nudges east into the northern Plains with a better push of drier air into the region into the mid week for a drier forecast.
Diurnal cu took over in the afternoon and there were some gusty north winds behind last night's low pressure. This will lead to lows into the low to mid 50s, though we could see some 40s across the interior, especially around Doe Lake and the Baraga Plains. Models aren't suggesting much in the way of fog tonight, though with the high pressure moving overhead and yesterday/last night's pcpn, there could be some patchy shallow fog developing. Tomorrow should be similar to today, except a little warmer and lighter winds. With weak gradient flow, lake breezes are expected to develop off of both Lake Superior and Lake Michigan, which will bring some locally cooler temperatures along the shorelines. Ridging aloft and at the surface builds across the CWA this weekend resulting in several consecutive days of dry, sunny weather with above normal temperatures.
The forecast lows in the lower 60s are lower than the current dew points, so expect the clouds and fog to redevelop later tonight.
118 PM EDT Thu Jul 15 2021 Dry weather is expected for the most part today and tonight before rain chances return on Friday ahead of a cold front. Despite high pressure in place and a strong warm layer aloft, some showers and even a storm or two is forming under the cap, mainly over SW PA and into WV. Tonight, pushing against a strong ridge over the east coast, the trough will push southeast attempting to intrude into the northwest after 00Z.
A cold front will approach from the north tonight, increasing the chances for showers and thunderstorms across N AR terminals through the end of the period. Longwave ridge centered over the western conus will continue to amplify while another ridge centered over the western Atlantic will contract. This will allow troughing to dig down into the Mid South Region, with showers/storms spreading into Arkansas by the end of the period as the surface system inches closer to the state.
We're experiencing a more traditional summer day with weak south- southwesterly flow on the western periphery of a subtropical ridge centered over the western Atlantic Ocean. Current temperatures are already quite warm and should peak in the lower 90s across the area both today and tomorrow with mild overnight temps in the upper 60s to lower 70s.
As the upper ridge continues to build, the latest smoke forecast shows a plume moving through the upper level ridge and reaching our area tomorrow by the morning hours and sticking around through the evening. Heading into the evening hours, a weak wave is still looking to come down the ridge across central South Dakota and should lead to scattered showers and thunderstorms around the aforementioned convergence axis.
After a warm start this morning, temperatures have warmed into the low to mid 80s at mid morning across the region. More significant shower and thunderstorm development is still expected for late this afternoon and evening as a cold front sags into the region.
BW Chattanooga Airport, TN 71 90 72 89 71 / 10 50 30 80 60 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 70 91 72 89 71 / 10 40 30 80 70 Oak Ridge, TN 70 90 71 87 69 / 10 40 30 80 70 Tri Cities Airport, TN 64 90 68 89 67 / 10 40 20 80 60.
A cold front will approach on Friday, bringing the chance for strong storms. With upper level support this afternoon in the form of a thermal trough near 500mb, and even some 300mb divergence noted, showers and thunderstorms have been able to develop coincident with 1500-2000j/kg of CAPE and 25-30kts of bulk shear. As the trough begins to propagate southeasterly into the region, jet supported ascent and vorticity advection will allow for development of updrafts, aided and made dangerous by built up buoyancy with temperature in the 80s, and dewpoints near 70.
Cooler temperatures/cloud cover should limit overall severe potential and heavier rain by afternoon.
1011 AM CDT Thu Jul 15 2021 Skies are mostly sunny across the Mid-South this morning with temperatures in the low to mid 80s. Current temperatures are in the low 70s and winds are light/calm as high pressure remains across the SE US.
Overnight lows will be on the warm side, with temperatures only falling off into the lower 70s. Highs will climb into the lower to mid 90s. (Friday night through next Thursday) Dry and warm conditions will persist across the area through the weekend, as we remain under the influence of the upper level ridge to our west.
The only change was to increase sky cover for this afternoon, mainly over the higher terrain areas of the Sisseton Hills. 5in, and one of the waves moves in to suppress the otherwise building ridge into the Northern Plains.
-- Thunderstorm potential today -- Elevated storms this morning in Central Michigan are forming off 925-850 mb moisture transport convergence and closer proximity to the upper level trough, and repeating batches of heavy downpours could cause minor flooding this morning, particularly in Mason and Lake counties where soil moisture is relatively high. The orientation of the cold front or mid-level focus for storm development relative to the 0-3 km shear vector is closer to parallel than it is perpendicular, so this would also limit the potential for a stronger QLCS to develop. A few strong thunderstorms are possible with wind gusts over 40 knots, with the highest chance across southeast Lower Michigan this afternoon.
Ridging at the surface and aloft over the NW Atlantic Basin will gradually weaken over the last couple days of the week, while troughing nears this region from the NW.
Tonight and Friday: High pressure is expected to build across the area tonight and then linger through the day Friday. In addition, the ridge passing directly overhead, will lead to light winds across much of the area. A fairly broad ridge will continue to build over western CONUS, gradually building over the western Central Plains as well. The only chance for precipitation then arrives in the a Canadian low, which may drag a cold front through the area sometime near the end of the week. for 18Z TAF Issuance High pressure building across the area today will lead to VFR contitions through this evening; although, some afternoon CU will likely develop.
Destabilization driven by daytime heating should allow for more robust convection to develop late this afternoon into the evening (again centered under the trough axis near north central Oklahoma).
A cold front is bearing down on the far southeast counties this early this afternoon. This is across the higher terrain of Colorado. Highs should be able to rebound quickly into the lower 90s. Think storms will develop across the High Plains of eastern Colorado during Friday afternoon. Have the highest pops along and west of Highway 83 tomorrow night. The main concern though will be isolated spots of heavy rainfall as PWATs continue to remain on the high side.
High pressure strengthens in central Idaho and western Montana, which will cause hot and dry conditions for the weekend.
1118 AM EDT Thu Jul 15 2021 The Bermuda High will ridge into the forecast area through the weekend providing a typical summertime pattern.
Friday should be a very nice day with temps back into the lower to middle 80s.
233 PM CDT Thu Jul 15 2021 Decreasing impacts are expected tonight as southwesterly winds increase and help scour out the low-level smoke across eastern ND and west central MN. High pressure now over the top of Lake Superior is resulting in increasing return flow into central ND. Ensemble guidance brings the strong upper ridge to the area this weekend and through the first part of the week with the heat wave having a high confidence of occurrence.
258 PM EDT Thu Jul 15 2021 Mean layer ridging centered near the Atlantic Bight stretches from Bermuda to Mexico. Isolated showers and thunderstorms persist across the coastal waters of the Florida Keys, and a rather intact cloud line streamer in the lee of the Lower Keys continues to wax and wane. Undulations in moisture will ride along the southern flank of the subtropical ridge, which will remain parked over of the western North Atlantic.
The four corners upper high will gradually expand/build northeast into the Northern Plains through the period.
The weak mid level ridge over the northwest Gulf of Mexico will drift west into the coastal plains of south Texas Friday and Friday night. Temperatures will be slightly warmer Friday and afternoon heat index values will range from 105-109 over the inland Coastal Bend.
214 PM MDT Thu Jul 15 2021 Upper ridge is building over the region today and temps have pushed above normal. Weak impulse in W/SW flow will round the ridge late today into the evening. Friday will generally be a repeat of Thursday, but with somewhat warmer temps as ridge strengthens.
SHORT TERM (Tonight through Friday Night): Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley continue to lay under a weakness in the broad mid level ridge across the southern CONUS as a trough moves across the Plains and Great Lakes. At the surface, high pressure over the the southern East Coast/northeast Gulf of Mexico will allow light to moderate southeast winds to persist through the short term, allowing Gulf moisture to continue to stream across the region, keeping boundary layer moisture high. Otherwise, temperatures will be near normal both tonight and Friday night with lows in the mid to upper 70s and only slightly below normal Friday afternoon with highs in the lower to mid 90s (except along the coast, where highs will be in the mid to upper 80s).
Tomorrow continues to look like a day of transition as an upper level trough starts heading this way. However, by late tomorrow night, as this upper trough enters the region, better coverage of storms is expected to move into the mid-state and they'll be around for most of the weekend.
Drier air will gradually work into the state Friday as the upper level ridge shifts. Morning water vapor imagery and objective analysis show a mid level ridge centered across the forecast area. A reasonably moist airmass remains in place across central and southern Utah, where dew points remain in the low to mid 50s across the lower elevations, and near 60 around the St George area, contributing to GOES derived PW values near 1 inch. Sunny skies are allowing strong heating along the higher terrain, where cu is developing across favored areas from the Uintas through the Wasatch Plateau southward to Boulder Mountain.
/issued 220 AM CDT Thu Jul 15 2021/ An upper level low pressure trough will carve out across the southern plains today, just east of the upper level high pressure ridge over the southwest. Appears enough moisture and instability will pool within this trough and with weak low level convergence to support a low chance for thunderstorms mainly later this afternoon and evening. RMcQueen The mid/upper-level anticyclone, currently centered over the Great Basin, is forecast to amplify and latitudinally expand on Friday as a pair of upper-level lows deepen over the northeastern Pacific Ocean and the eastern Canadian Shield, resulting in the early stages of a blocking pattern set to unfold over the course of the next several days.
DGS Chattanooga Airport, TN 91 71 90 72 89 / 20 10 50 30 80 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 90 70 91 72 89 / 10 10 40 30 80 Oak Ridge, TN 89 70 90 71 87 / 10 10 40 30 80 Tri Cities Airport, TN 88 64 90 68 89 / 10 10 40 20 80.
The ridging pattern will also provide a respite from the recent rainy and stormy weather, but this may exacerbate ongoing drought conditions in parts of Iowa that did not receive significant rainfall from the last few rounds. From tonight through the weekend the 500 mb flow will be stuck in a blocking pattern with a large trough over the Great Lakes and northeastern U. and a large high pressure dome over the Mountain West.
Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop again today along the high terrain around midday and move southeast/east through the afternoon. The ridge over the southwest begins to drift eastward through the rest of the week, becoming centered over the Four Corners by this weekend. Activity is expected to become a bit less widespread, especially across the lower elevations. Temperatures remain about the same through the forecast period, warming slightly as the ridges moves east. Showers and thunderstorms continue across northern Arizona on Thursday and Friday, favoring the high terrain and eastern zones on Friday.
A building ridge will continue tomorrow, along with chances of afternoon showers and thunderstorms, mainly across the southwest. Tomorrow also will be hotter than today, with some areas reaching the mid 90s east of the Divide as the ridge continues to build into the weekend.
Warmer temperatures expected for Friday as the upper level high continues to strengthen southwest of the area.
A front runs west southwest from the low across northern Illinois and into southern Iowa.
Otherwise under partly sunny skies, temperatures ranged from the low to mid 80s. Dewpoints in the 70s will result in heat index values ranging from the low/mid 90s to near 100 degrees. The previously mentioned ridge will weaken on Friday as an amplifying trough slides into the backside of it. The cold front will slowly sink southward this weekend and bring an increase in showers and thunderstorms.
139 PM EDT Thu Jul 15 2021 The Bermuda High will ridge into the forecast area through the weekend providing a typical summertime pattern.
We're already starting to see shower and thunderstorm activity develop on the higher terrain to the east of Tucson. In the bigger picture, there is a mid level disturbance across north/central Arizona that is progged to move to the south, then southwest tonight and become fairly stationary as an inverted trough on Friday over southeast Arizona. Min RH values will be in the 25-35 percent range at the lower elevations, with higher values in the mountains.
A cold front will approach on Friday, bringing the chance for strong to severe storms. As the trough begins to propagate southeasterly into the region, jet supported ascent and vorticity advection will allow for development of updrafts on Friday, aided and made dangerous by built up buoyancy with temperature in the 80s, and dewpoints near 70.
VFR through the period at all sites as high pressure prevails, with the exception of some noted MVFR fog at TRI on Friday morning. While chances are low, did include prob30 at CHA Friday afternoon for TSRA given diurnal instability and proximity to the subsidence ridge. CDG Chattanooga Airport, TN 72 90 72 88 72 / 10 40 30 80 70 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 70 91 72 88 71 / 10 20 30 80 70 Oak Ridge, TN 69 90 71 86 70 / 40 30 30 80 70 Tri Cities Airport, TN 66 89 68 88 67 / 10 20 20 80 60.
/issued 223 PM CDT Thu Jul 15 2021/ SHORT TERM (Tonight through Friday Night): Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley continue to lay under a weakness in the broad mid level ridge across the southern CONUS as a trough moves across the Plains and Great Lakes. At the surface, high pressure over the the southern East Coast/northeast Gulf of Mexico will allow light to moderate southeast winds to persist through the short term, allowing Gulf moisture to continue to stream across the region, keeping boundary layer moisture high. Otherwise, temperatures will be near normal both tonight and Friday night with lows in the mid to upper 70s and only slightly below normal Friday afternoon with highs in the lower to mid 90s (except along the coast, where highs will be in the mid to upper 80s).
633 PM CDT Thu Jul 15 2021 A cold front in Missouri will continue to work its way south slowly.
An upper trough along the Pacific coast will shift slightly east tomorrow, resulting in temperatures a couple degrees lower than today but still 3 to 5 degrees above normal.
754 PM EDT Thu Jul 15 2021 The Bermuda High will ridge into the forecast area through the weekend providing a typical summertime pattern.
Decreasing impacts are expected tonight as southwesterly winds increase and help scour out the low-level smoke across eastern ND and west central MN. High pressure now over the top of Lake Superior is resulting in increasing return flow into central ND. Ensemble guidance brings the strong upper ridge to the area this weekend and through the first part of the week with the heat wave having a high confidence of occurrence.
941 PM EDT Thu Jul 15 2021 Deep high pressure will prevail through this weekend. Low temperatures in the lower to middle 70s most areas, to the upper 70s near 80 close to coast. Deep mid-level ridging will remain across the area through the weekend.
/Issued 119 PM CDT Thu Jul 15 2021/ An upper level short wave trough will slowly move southeast across the southern Texas Panhandle through this evening. On Friday, a northwest flow aloft will continue and another short wave trough will move southeast across southeast Colorado and northeast New Mexico in the flow, so this should help to bring the mountain thunderstorms into the western Panhandles late Friday afternoon into Friday night.
1015 PM EDT Thu Jul 15 2021 Deep ridging continues from the western north Atlantic through the northern Gulf of Mexico this evening.
AFter the rain of last night and this morning, things have begun to wind down as the cold front evident on the radar at 1813z, as a thin band of showers between Y31 and OSC, moves through the forecast area. High pressure will build into the region overnight. The high will help bring in clear skies and light winds. However, with low temperatures expected to be in the lower to mid 50s, fog is a possibility.
on the periphery of the upper ridge. By late Friday evening the SubTrop High will be forced along the ridge of the southern divide by lowering heights along the Pacific Coast.
There will be a persistent pattern of an upper trough along the coast and 4-Corners ridging. The ridges expands wastered, bringing some warming on Friday, but highs will remain below normal. Some of the higher mountains will only reach the mid 60s to mid 70s.
CAMs show a few showers and storms popping up in the warm sector ahead of the cold front that is approaching the area. Temperatures are still in the low 80s at this time and expected to cool into the mid to upper 70s overnight. Temperatures will remain near normal tonight with lows Friday morning in the low to mid 70s. As the cold front moves closer to the region on Friday, more thunderstorms will move into the Mid-South especially during the afternoon hours. The cold front will continue to push toward the region Friday night with more thunderstorms expected.
1035 PM EDT Thu Jul 15 2021 The Bermuda High will ridge into the forecast area through the weekend providing a typical summertime pattern.
An upper trough could bring some drizzle or very light rain on Friday.
Tonight and Friday: High pressure is expected to build across the area tonight and then linger through the day Friday. In addition, the ridge passing directly overhead, will lead to light winds across much of the area. A fairly broad ridge will continue to build over western CONUS, gradually building over the western Central Plains as well. The only chance for precipitation then arrives in the a Canadian low, which may drag a cold front through the area sometime near the end of the week. for 00Z TAF Issuance High pressure will be centered across the region during the next 24 hours, resulting in relatively light winds and clear to partly cloudy skies.
The weekend will be slightly cooler behind the front with high temperatures in the 80s and lows in the 60s.
Weak low pressure moving east northeast from central Illinois to northern Ohio Friday into Friday night may brush a few showers across southeastern parts of the area. Highs should remain in the lower to middle 70s near the lake with the northeast winds. Wood (Issued 243 PM CDT Thu Jul 15 2021) Tonight through Friday night: Low pressure will pass by to the south of Wisconsin tonight into Friday. Models are in decent agreement showing a lot of dry air between 850 and 500 mb across southern Wisconsin just north of the low. Unless the low jogs north, it looks like the forecast area will be dry as the low moves through the region. The low may keep some clouds across the north through tomorrow, but otherwise less clouds are likely tonight into Friday.