Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
HEATING CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA WITH DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 70S BASED ON LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
351 PM EDT WED MAY 6 2015 THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT, WHILE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY.
448 PM MDT WED MAY 6 2015 THE STRONG LOW THAT MOVED OVER THE AREA LAST NIGHT AND THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE MOVING INTO THE HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT.
Both the 0Z GFS/NAM show a better PV anomaly over the area for Thurs although both are weak and again a good mid level cap will exist with strong ridging over the region. Other than that, above normal temps will continue with highs in the low to mid 80s today and Thurs, and lows in the mid 50s to lower 60s tonight.
300 PM EDT WED MAY 6 2015 MID/UPPER RIDGE HOLDS IN PLACE WITH WEAK STEERING FLOW. AS WE REMAIN UNDER THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. FLOW AROUND MID LEVEL RIDGE CENTER NR HTS-CRW SHOULD ALLOW THE CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES TO MOVE WEST. UPPER RIDGE HOLDS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. WITH WARM AND HUMID AIR IN PLACE AS AREA REMAINS IN THE WARM SECTOR OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE WEST.
502 PM EDT WED MAY 6 2015 UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE THE START OF THE WEEKEND WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON. MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THIS BOUNDARY AND WESTERLY/UPSLOPE FLOW ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO OUR EAST SHOULD PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WITH A LESSER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE TOMORROW AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD. THE STORY WILL REMAIN MUCH THE SAME THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS THE REGION REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE.
WEST COAST LARGE SCALE TROUGH DEEPENS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A POTENT S/W TROUGH MOVING DOWN THE BACKSIDE ACROSS THE PACIFIC COAST. A WEAK S/W TROF WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL AID IN DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORMS OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE EVENING HOURS WHICH MAY MAKE A RUN TOWARDS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC THURSDAY.
A WARM DAY IS IN STORE ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
THE UPPER TROUGH THAT MOVED THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST U. A WEAKER SECONDARY SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL FOLLOW OVERNIGHT.
1228 PM MDT WED MAY 6 2015 UPPER LOW WILL LIFT NORTHEAST TONIGHT. WRAPAROUND PRECIPITATION WILL BE MOVING IN BEHIND THE UPPER LOW WITH THE SEVERE THREAT ENDING EARLY AND LEAVING ONLY AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN WITH A FEW EMBEDDED RUMBLES OF THUNDER. A CUT OFF LOW ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PROGRESS ACROSS THE TRI STATE AREA THIS WEEKEND. FORECAST MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH BRINGING A NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH OVER THE REGION. ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE HIGHEST VALUES OF 0-6 KM SHEAR APPROACHING 60 KTS.
WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHTER AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA. MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT TODAY WITH THE HANDLING OF AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE (POSSIBLY BECOMING SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL IN NATURE) WHICH WILL BE MOVING SLOWLY NORTH OFFSHORE THE SOUTHEAST U.
A COLD FRONT IS JUST ENTERING FAR NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. WITH DEWPOINTS CLIMBING INTO THE LOW 60S. BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT. NORTHERLY WINDS WINDS WILL BRING IN COOLER AIR TO NORTH DAKOTA. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY FALL INTO THE THE LOW TO MID 30S. AND THESE CLOUDS MAY PREVENT LOW TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING BELOW FREEZING.
320 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2015 A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM THE SOUTHEAST SK/SOUTHWEST MB AREA INTO NORTHWEST KS THIS AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS TONIGHT.
And while there's some agitated MOGR CU along the boundary, the clouds look soft and suppressed, which is what you might expect to see in an area of subsidence behind the short wave trough which helped to set the stage for yesterday's tornadic storms.
136 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2015 THE HIGH PRESSURE DOME OVER MID APPALACHIA WILL GRADUALLY BREAK DOWN DURING THE SHORT TERM TIME FRAME.
140 PM EDT WED MAY 6 2015 A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND WILL CONTINUE TO SAG SOUTH OF THE REGION TODAY. ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN FOR THU.
THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER FAR NORTHEAST CO. A COLD FRONT LIES FROM FAR WESTERN ND INTO THE BLACK HILLS AREA AND ACROSS SOUTHERN WY. WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING PLENTY OF MOISTURE STREAMING NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE LOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL INTO NORTHERN PLAINS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TO THE EAST OF THE COLD FRONT. THE BEST CHANCES FOR PCPN WILL BE INTO THIS EVENING ACROSS WESTERN SD AS THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY CROSSES THE AREA. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 30S OVER THE HIGHER BLACK HILLS TO THE 50S OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD. A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW IS ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE BLACK HILLS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY.
TEMPS OVERNIGHT WILL BE WARMER DUE TO THIS EXTRA MOISTURE PARTICULARLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST TX PANHANDLE WHERE MIN TEMPS WILL ONLY DROP DOWN TO THE LOW 60S. THE EXTRA MOISTURE ALSO MEANS CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA PREVENTING DAYTIME TEMPS TOMORROW FROM GOING MUCH BEYOND THE LOWER 80S.
259 PM CDT Wed May 6 2015 Mid level trough currently negatively tilted over the Central Plains is moving through the area, and is responsible for the scattered showers that have formed over the forecast area this afternoon. Even with the better instability, wind shear will be on the lower end, with 20 to 30 knots of deep shear anticipated.
At the same time, a cooler air mass will begin to move south out of Canada overnight.
LATEST RADAR TRENDS CONTINUE TO FOLLOW CLOSELY WITH THE HIGH-RES MODELS. ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA THE HIGH-RES MODELS INDICATE AFTERNOON HEATING WILL PRODUCE SOME INSTABILITY. PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY WANE THURSDAY/THURSDAY EVENING FROM WEST TO EAST AS A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BE EXITING THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY THURSDAY MORNING.
LOOK FOR NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS TO PICK UP THURSDAY AFTN IN ERN ND AS COOLER AIR MOVES IN. SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A NORTH BREEZE AND LOWS MID 30S TO LOWER 40S. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR WILL DROP SOUTH AND EAST BEHIND DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM BUT HOW FAR SOUTH WILL DRY AIR MAKE IT IS QUESTIONABLE.
LATEST AVAILABLE IR IMAGERY AS OF 200 PM OVERLAID WITH MODEL STREAMLINE ANALYSIS DETAILS THE MAIN AXIS OF MID AND UPPER TROUGH FROM THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY SOUTH SOUTHEASTWARD TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. BUT 25 TO 35 KNOT WINDS AT 250 MB ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH ACROSS CUBA. MIDDLE AND UPPER LOW PRESSURE IS EAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. AT THE SURFACE AND IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE LEVELS. BROAD LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS NORTHWARDS TO NORTHWEST OF THE ABACOS ISLANDS.
240 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2015 THE HIGH PRESSURE DOME OVER MID APPALACHIA WILL GRADUALLY BREAK DOWN DURING THE SHORT TERM TIME FRAME.
With upper ridge holding firm just to our east, precipitation will have a tough time making any progress further east before diminishing late this afternoon. Otherwise, it will be another warm day with highs in the low to mid 80s.
EXTENDED THE HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS UNTIL 12Z THURSDAY.
UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA HAD 30 TO 60 METER HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH IT. THERE COULD ACTUALLY BE A SEVERAL HOUR DRY PERIOD LATER THURSDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT BEGINS TO PUSH INTO THE AREA.
AN UPPER LOW DIGGING SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN WILL BRING A PERIOD OF HEIGHT FALLS LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
THE LACK OF ANY LIFTING MECHANISM BEYOND THE WEAK BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH AND THE RIDGES SHOULD CONFINE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO THOSE AREAS. BUILDING RIDGE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES THURSDAY AND WITH LESS MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION. THIS SQUEEZES THE AREA INTO A FAIRLY TIGHT CORRIDOR OF RIDGING. IT WOULD SEEM WE SHOULD REMAIN IN THIS MICRO-RIDGE FOR QUITE A PERIOD. WHILE THE AIR MASS UNDER THE RIDGE WILL BE SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE. OWING TO THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WE HAVE ALREADY GAINED THIS WEEK FROM RAINFALL. IT WOULD SEEM THE AIR CONDITIONERS MAY GET A PRETTY QUICK START OWING TO DEWPOINTS LIKELY TO BE IN THE LOWER 60S BY THAT TIME AS WELL.
THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY INTO THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING UP INTO THE LOW 90S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA BY THE WEEKEND.
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES THROUGH THE UPPER LEVELS, SO CONDITIONS REALLY AREN'T FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION, EVEN WITH THE WARM TEMPERATURES. LOOK FOR EVEN HIGHER TEMPERATURES TOMORROW AS RETURN FLOW ADVECTS WARMER AIR INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE, WITH ISOLATED STORMS POSSIBLE ON THE PLATEAU BEGINNING TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
EXPECT CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND SEVERE WEATHER TO DIMINISH DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE RESPONSIBLE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD. COULD SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT TOMORROW AFTERNOON. AS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HAS SHIFTED SOUTH ALONG THE WEST COAST INTO SRN CALIFORNIA.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DEVELOP AND PINCH OFF OVER THE INTERIOR NORTHWEST TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE COLD AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER LOW, COMBINED WITH TODAY'S DAYTIME SURFACE HEATING, WILL CAUSE STEEP LAPSE RATES THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. WEAK YET AMPLIFIED RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND.
VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. AND CONTINUE ENHANCING UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DYNAMICS BUILDING INTO THE REGION PROVIDING WIDESPREAD SUBSIDENCE.
HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH THE UPPER LEVELS WILL BE OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON IN SW VA AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NE TN WHERE MIDLEVEL CAPPING IS WEAKEST. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL AGAIN REACH THE LOWER TO MID 80S IN MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS. LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN EARLY IN THE EXTENDED WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL FOR STRONG DAYTIME HEATING.
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL SLOWLY SINK SOUTH OVER CALIFORNIA THIS WEEK HOWEVER CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY DRY WITH ONLY A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE INTERIOR MOUNTAINS.
/ISSUED 519 AM CDT Wed May 6 2015/ An upper level trough is over the western half of the conus with westerly to southwesterly flow over the CWA. Upper lift will increase ahead of this trough today as indicated by the NAM80 500 omega values over the Permian Basin. Bulk shear vectors will be good with the best values being across the Lower Trans Pecos. Mid-level lapse rates will be marginal with the highest values across the Lower Trans Pecos.
653 PM EDT WED MAY 6 2015 A DIFFUSE NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL OHIO WILL DRIFT NORTH OVERNIGHT AND DISSIPATE AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES.
HYDROLOGY WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED THURSDAY. AS HIGHS REACH THE LOWER 80S.
223 PM EDT WED MAY 6 2015 UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE THE START OF THE WEEKEND WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON. MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THIS BOUNDARY AND WESTERLY/UPSLOPE FLOW ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO OUR EAST SHOULD PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WITH A LESSER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE TOMORROW AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD. THE STORY WILL REMAIN MUCH THE SAME THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS THE REGION REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE.
332 PM EDT WED MAY 6 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTH AWAY FROM THE AREA THIS WEEK. WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN IN ITS WAKE. LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ORGANIZED TODAY.
309 PM MDT WED MAY 6 2015 THE STRONG LOW THAT MOVED OVER THE AREA LAST NIGHT AND THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE MOVING INTO THE HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT.
THE HIGHEST CAPE WILL RUN FROM ST. FOR THURSDAY, A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIFT BACK INTO SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS AS LOW PRESSURE REFORMS IN COLORADO. THE BEST AREAS WILL BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF A WARM FRONT FROM JUST SOUTH OF HAYS TO GARDEN CITY AND SOUTH TO THE OKLAHOMA BORDER.
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS UPPER LOW OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SLOWLY MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES.
Heading into tomorrow morning, thunderstorms that are currently firing across central Kansas will try to move into the eastern fringes of the forecast area after midnight, with additional expansion of showers/storms then expected toward daybreak as the low level jet begins to veer with time.
312 PM EDT WED MAY 6 2015 UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE FORECAST AREA IN THE SHORT TERM BUT IT DOES BREAK DOWN WITH APPROACHING TROPICAL SYSTEM. WITH THE LOCATION OF THE RIDGE OVER THE REGION. INSTABILITIES DO INCREASE A BIT THU ACROSS THAT AREA BUT NOTHING MAJOR WITH HIGH PRESSURE KEEP THINGS SUBDUED. BUT ALL ARE POINTING TO SOME DEGREE OF DEEPENING AS THE LOW DRIFTS NORTH ALONG OR JUST OFF THE GA/SC COAST.
INCREASINGLY BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THURSDAY AS A STRONG AND COLD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BEGINS TO MOVE TOWARD SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHERN NEVADA.
EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY MORNING AND REFOCUS THROUGHOUT THE DAY TO THE WEST AS COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. HAVE SIDED WITH COOLER HIGHS ACROSS THE WEST BASED ON THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT. WITH WARMER HIGHS IN THE EAST.
347 PM EDT WED MAY 6 2015 HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF OUR REGION FOR THE SHORT TERM WITH MOSTLY DRY WEATHER ON TAP. POSSIBLY EVEN LOWER 60S ON SOME OF THE RIDGES. THEY ALL DEPICT A MODERATELY STRONG RIDGE THROUGH THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. AND A DECENTLY STRONG TROUGH MOVING FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO THE PLAINS.
143 PM EDT WED MAY 6 2015 A WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST ALLOWING FOR WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
215 PM EDT WED MAY 6 2015 MID/UPPER RIDGE HOLDS IN PLACE WITH WEAK STEERING FLOW. AS WE REMAIN UNDER THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. FLOW AROUND MID LEVEL RIDGE CENTER NR HTS-CRW SHOULD ALLOW THE CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES TO MOVE WEST. UPPER RIDGE HOLDS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH IS STILL DOWN OVER COLORADO AND WESTERN KANSAS. THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH WILL LIFT INTO THE CWA. THAT SHOULD HELP PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE CWA FOR THURSDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP HIGH POPS TRANSITIONING OVER TO THE EASTERN CWA AS PRECIP SHOULD TAPER OFF BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM NEAR MACOMB TO PARIS ACROSS CENTRAL IL THIS MORNING AND COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHER DEWPOINTS NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY ARE RESULTING IN AREAS OF FOG. BIGGER SYSTEM DIGGING INTO THE DESERT SW OVER THE NEXT 36 HRS OR SO AND WILL KEEP THE WESTERN US UNDER A TROF, AMPLIFYING THE PATTERN AND SETTING UP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW FOR THE MIDWEST.
ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL FEED INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY, RIDGING ALOFT AND NEAR THE SURFACE SHOULD KEEP THE COVERAGE OF AIRMASS TYPE MAINLY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS SCATTERED. FAVORED THE GFS OVER THE MORE ROBUST EURO ON TSTM COVERAGE ON THURSDAY DUE TO CONVECTIVE INHIBITION FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE RIDGING. WENT WARMER THAN GUIDANCE EXCEPT FOR ACADIANA TNITE DUE TO EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND ONSHORE FLOW. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE LOOKS TO HOLD THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
312 PM MDT WED MAY 6 2015 AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR LOOP PORTRAYED A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED LARGE SCALE PATTERN ACROSS THE LOWER 48. PESKY UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A WIDE VARIETY OF INCLEMENT WEATHER FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. A MORE SIGNIFICANT UPPER TROUGH WAS DIGGING SOUTH THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE 12Z DETERMINISTIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT PROGGING THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO WEAKEN AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWEST INTENSIFIES AS IT DIGS FURTHER SOUTH INTO CA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
/ISSUED 925 AM CDT WED MAY 6 2015/ SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST WILL DOMINATE MIDSOUTH WEATHER TODAY WITH A WARM SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT ANY SHOWERS TO REMAIN TO THE WEST OF OUR FORECAST AREA WHERE THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE LESS CAPPED AND MORE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. HIGH PRESSURE IS OVER THE SOUTHEAST U. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS TODAY IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.
447 AM CDT Thu May 21 2015 An unseasonably cool and damp day is on tap across southeast New Mexico and west Texas today in the wake of a cold front which has become quasi-stationary across the Big Bend area. Temperatures today are only expected to rise to the middle 50s across the southeastern New Mexico plains to around 70 degrees across the Lower Trans Pecos. However, precipitation is expected to taper off early Friday morning as this impulse lifts to the northeast, and with weak midlevel height rises in the wake of this trough, a bit of reprieve is expected Friday as temperatures begin to rebound into the 70s and 80s across much of the area, with mid to upper 90s across the Rio Grande Valley.
THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE UPPER RIDGE; REMAINING WEAKLY SUBSIDENT OR NEUTRAL WITH RESPECT TO VERTICAL MOTIONS.
TEMPS THURSDAY LOOK TO HAVE A STRONG GRADIENT WITH BELOW NORMAL HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 70S FOR THE NW TO THE LOW 90S SE.
AT THE SURFACE, A 03Z SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTED A COLD FRONT DRAPED WEST TO EAST FROM CENTRAL TX, THROUGH THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE SOUTHEAST, AND OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. JUST OUT AHEAD OF THIS FRONT, A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS RESULTING IN CONVECTION LASTING INTO THE NIGHT ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL REACH THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE.
We are looking for highs to reach only into the 60s for most of the area behind yesterday's cold front.
242 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING SHOWER CHANCES TODAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL THEN PUSH SOUTH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
450 AM MDT THU MAY 21 2015 SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE PREVALENT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS MOISTURE FROM A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN US IS EJECTED UP INTO FROM THE SOUTH.
OVERSPREADING COOLER/DRIER POST FRONTAL AIR SPREAD THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH. FRIDAY AND THE EARLY WEEKEND WILL SEE AN UPPER LOW DIG OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
AND FRIDAY SKIES WILL START OUT MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. AS THE COLD FRONT SINKS SOUTH IT WILL HAVE INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH AS MLCAPE VALUES RISE TO AROUND 300 J/KG. THE MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND LIFT FROM THE COLD FRONT ITSELF WILL LEND ITSELF TO THE POSSIBILITY FOR A SHOWERS AND A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER AS IT TRACKS THROUGH THE AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S ACROSS THE NORTH WITH THE EARLIER COLD FROPA. LATER TONIGHT HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY.
120 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2015 WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WITH A FEW SHOWERS. DRIER AIR EXPECTED THURSDAY BEHIND THE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION FOR FRIDAY. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGH HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL ENTER THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW. FROM MEMORIAL DAY THROUGH MID WEEK THE GFS IS THE MORE MOIST WITH THE ECMWF THE DRIEST WITH STRONGER MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE AREA.
344 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA LATE TODAY.
329 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015 ANOTHER COOLER THAN NORMAL DAY IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS TODAY, BUT IT WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY MILDER THAN YESTERDAY. THE WARMING WILL COME COURTESY OF SOMEWHAT UNUSUAL NORTHWEST LOW-LEVEL FLOW WARM ADVECTION BETWEEN A SOUTHWARD SINKING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND AN APPROACHING BACK-DOOR COLD FRONT. HIGHS FRI IN THE LOW TO MID 70S WITH MILDEST READINGS SW AREAS.
542 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015 THE FLOW PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA THIS MORNING CONTINUES TO FEATURE A MID-TROPOSPHERIC SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED ACROSS MEXICO. WITH LONGWAVE TROUGHS ENCOMPASSING THE PACIFIC COAST AND EASTERN CANADA. WITH RELATED SURFACE COLD FRONT NOW SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION.
/TODAY/ AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA TODAY. THIS TROUGH SHOULD HELP KEEP THE CLOUDS IN PLACE UNTIL IT PASSES BY. EXPECT DECREASING CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE TROUGH EXITS. NOT MUCH LIFT WITH THE TROUGH. TRENDED TOWARD THE COOLER OF THE MOS NUMBERS WHICH PUTS HIGHS AROUND 60 TO THE LOWER 60S.
148 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS WELL TO OUR SOUTH. ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.
Rising mid level heights with a building upper ridge over the Plains and increasing subsidence combined with a higher May sun angle should eventually erode the low clouds from above and below, but the process almost always seems to take longer than expected.
CLOSED UPPER LOW ON THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST PUMPING MORE MOISTURE INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEVADA.
319 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015 317 AM CDT RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS IN PLACE ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS EARLY THIS MORNING WHILE AN EAST-WEST ORIENTED TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WILL SLOWLY SLIDE SOUTH ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN TODAY AND TONIGHT. MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND DEEP MIXING TODAY WILL HELP PUSH TEMPS 15 TO 20 DEGREES WARMER COMPARED TO YESTERDAY'S HIGH TEMPS. SO EXPECT THE WARMER TEMPS TO SPREAD RIGHT UP TO THE LAKE. EXPECT A MODEST BOOST FROM THE LAKE OVERNIGHT WITH WINDS SWINGING AROUND TO THE NORTHEAST AND TEMPS FALLING BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S BEHIND.
WITH UPPER LEVEL AND SATELLITE DATA SHOWING AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NORTH FROM THE SRN PLAINS IN PORTIONS OF THE NRN ROCKIES. THE LOW LEVEL STRATUS WHICH KEPT THE CWA CLOUDY ALL DAY YESTERDAY CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTH. HIGH PRESSURE HAS SETTLED SOUTH OVER WRN NEB INTO WRN KS. INCREASING CLOUD COVER TONIGHT LOOKS TO HELP TEMPS TONIGHT BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOWER/MID 40S. A FAIRLY UNSETTLED PATTERN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIODS AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES FOR SEVERAL DAYS WITH MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES PASSING ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA FROM TIME TO TIME.
A WEAK UPPER LOW WILL ALSO DROP DOWN OVER THE AREA FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
AS THE STORMS MOVE OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN INTO STRONGER INSTABILITY.
343 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015 A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE REGION HAS ALLOWED WINDS TO REMAIN IN THE 10 TO 15 MPH RANGE TROUGH THE NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE REGION TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER HOWEVER. HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST FRIDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN TRANSITIONS FROM WEAK RIDGING TO SOUTHWEST FLOW. A WELL DEFINED TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATE FRIDAY.
651 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2015 03Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND FRONTAL BOUNDARIES ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND TN VALLEY THIS MORNING. THE GRADIENT LOOKS TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD EAST. THIS WILL LEAD TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S. FRIDAY WILL NOT BE AS COOL WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILING ACROSS EASTERN KY. A WEAK/DRY COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH TOWARD THE REGION LATE IN THE DAY. THEY ALL DEPICT THE DEPARTURE OF A COOL TROUGH TO THE NORTHEAST EARLY ON WITH A STRONG RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS RIDGE WILL SHARPEN UP HEADING INTO MEMORIAL DAY BUT ALSO SHIFT ITS AXIS MORE TOWARD THE EAST.
AS A VORTICITY LOBE FROM A LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER MIDWEST TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH, GRADUAL CLEARING SHOULD TAKE DURING THE AFTERNOON.
328 AM MDT THU MAY 21 2015 SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE PREVALENT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS MOISTURE FROM A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN US IS EJECTED UP INTO FROM THE SOUTH.