Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
206 PM MST SUN JUN 5 2016 A cooling trend is expected this week as high pressure is slowly displaced by lower pressure. Early afternoon temperatures are running close to yesterday's readings over south-central AZ (slightly cooler if anything) but still looking at record territory. The cooling trend which has started over our western areas is due to an upper low (currently centered near Reno) breaking through the northern portion of the ridge that is otherwise covering the western states. This feature will continue to weaken the high pressure over us as it shifts eastward.
/Today/ System that impacted the area the past few days has moved off to the east, with the state sandwiched between low pressure to the east and an area of high pressure across the western high plains. Therefore bumped up temps another degree or two with highs mainly in the low to mid 80s today.
Most unstable capes values are expected to be around 500-1000j/kg in the higher elevations of the Laramie/Snowy Ranges with Effective shear values around 30 to 35kts. After sunset, we are expecting to see the low level flow turn to the east in response to the weak upper level impulse moving into northern Colorado.
A strong ridge of high pressure will continue to bring very hot temperatures through Monday.
This will remain the case thru tmrw, even as the ridge nudges in a little closer, so would expect similar such development Monday. Monday night, the models vigorously dig short wave energy into the long wave trof and across the Lower Ohio River Valley, squeezing out available moisture with some light QPF for us.
Monday will be mainly rain-free as a surface cyclone pulls northward into Ontario and Quebec provinces. With partly sunny skies and a fairly warm boundary layer forecast, temperatures in the lower 80s are likely to be realized in the valleys. Another short wave rotates through NY/PA on Tueday, bringing additional showers and further carving out the upper level trof pattern.
In general temperatures running cooler this afternoon compared to previous days but still seeing 89 at concord and livermore. Upper low over the Bay Area is actually producing t-storms over northeast California.
A large upper level low center will shift from the northern Great Lakes to the southern tip of Hudson's Bay today/tonight with and upper level northwest flow in place over our region.
Strong high pressure will lead to a final round of near record breaking temperatures today. On Monday, a passing low pressure system will cause slightly cooler temperatures and breezy southwest winds.
314 PM CDT SUN JUN 5 2016 Through tomorrow, a large closed-off mid-level low will remain centered over the Great Lakes region with a broad mid-level ridge anchored over the western U. As a result, may only see some isolated to scattered storms develop along this front by late afternoon (generally along and north of I-70), and only have slight chance PoPs in at this time due to the low confidence in storm development and coverage.
152 PM EDT SUN JUN 5 2016 An approaching cold front will stall near the forecast area Monday.
An upper level trough extending from the upper Midwest southward through the mid MS river valley will lift northeast across the Great Lakes States. A broad upper level ridge was located across the western US. Highs will reach the lower to mid 80s.
Currently, a weak cold front is pushing through northern into central ND producing only a few mid level clouds. This is associated with an impulse helping to dig an upper low over the northern Great lakes and southeast Canada.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will persist through the short term period as several waves rotate around a parent upper low over Ontario/Quebec.
An upper level ridge to the west bringing intense late spring heat to the southwestern US is more typical of a summertime pattern and is likely an indication we are headed that way. Close proximity to the upper ridge will keep mid and upper level flow weak preventing much organization to convection in New Mexico. A local minimum in low level theta-e currently exists behind a weak cold front yesterday with a theta-e ridge in New Mexico.
624 PM EDT SUN JUN 5 2016 Scattered showers and cooler temperatures can be expected into the middle of the week. As the front moves toward the ridges late evening showers will diminish with lower dew points drying out the low levels and beginning to decrease clouds.
Main upper level northern stream trough axis that currently extends from the Great Lakes to the Mississippi River Valley, has merged with the upper level southern stream wave over SE TX.
lows tonight will be in the low to mid 50s, with highs on Monday only in the 60s to around 70 range.
Temperatures will moderate over the next few days as an upper ridge moves slowly east.
Surface cold front drops south across the forecast area tonight with temperatures falling into the lower to mid 50s. Monday will be noticeably cooler and once again breezy in the post frontal air mass. Expect highs in the lower 60s across northern WI to the lower 70s for northeast IA and southwest WI.
Another vorticity max on the periphery of closed low across eastern Canada will surge southward into the easter Great Lakes tomorrow. The associated weak cold front will move through Monday afternoon/evening.
322 PM EDT SUN JUN 5 2016 Showers and thunderstorms will be scattered into this evening as a cold front moves through the region. Scattered showers and cooler temperatures can be expected into the middle of the week. Showers exiting the far southeast ridges as thunderstorms ahead of and with the front move across northeast and central Ohio. As the front moves toward the ridges late evening showers will diminish with lower dew points drying out the low levels and beginning to decrease clouds.
Upper level high pressure stretching from the Southwest US north into the Central Plains. As this ridge fades, another ridge building across the Southeast US will slide westward into the area by the end of the week and into the weekend. Neither of these ridges really centers up over the area, so while conditions will remain dry, they won't really get too hot either.
The lower atmosphere is well mixed, therefore a lot of lower to mid 80s will be in store along with brisk wind speeds again. Ahead of the short wave, lows will be in the lower to mid 50s in our area. On Monday the cold front settles into the Central Plains, and in a cold air advection regime it will be breezy with highs mainly lower to mid 70s.
614 PM EDT SUN JUN 5 2016 A cold front extending from Ohio to western Tennessee and will move east and off the mid Atlantic coast by Monday morning.
A cold front will bring cooler temperatures to the region mid to late week. The upper low that brought widespread cloud cover to the region yesterday has now moved east of the area to a little north of Reno this afternoon.
The center of a dome of high pressure will continue to slide eastward across Kansas leading to light and variable winds becoming southerly winds by this evening. Southerly winds continue through tomorrow as lee troughing develops across eastern Colorado. A cold front will approach the CWA tomorrow afternoon and a few thunderstorms may form along it during the late afternoon into the evening hours.
248 PM EDT SUN JUN 5 2016 An approaching cold front will stall near the forecast area Monday.
251 PM MDT SUN JUN 5 2016 An upper ridge will glide over the area tonight through Monday night. Even if cloud development shows an up tick the lower atmosphere will remain very dry resulting in very little precipitation reaching the ground.
A weak upper low moving across northern California will result in continued cooling today. A gradual cooling trend is then forecast to continue for much of the week as an upper trough over the Eastern Pacific slowly approaches the West Coast. This will of course bring some cooling through the afternoon hours with the core of the weak upper low right over the Bay Area which is allowing some t-storms to fire over Northeast California.
644 PM EDT SUN JUN 5 2016 Low pressure will track west of the area tonight into Monday.
and Monday The cold front has exited the the state and somewhat drier air is arriving from the northwest. Another upper trough will drop towards Wisconsin monday. 500mb temperatures of -20c and surface dewpoints in the low to mid 50s should easily produce showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon.
155 PM EDT SUN JUN 5 2016 A cold front will cross the region from the west this afternoon and evening.
Expect shower and thunderstorm coverage to increase across Southeast Texas heading into the afternoon hours with temperatures rising into the low to mid 80s and the region remaining under a mid-level shear axis (aiding lift across the region). /ISSUED / Elongated mid level trof axis stretches from south Texas into Arkansas early this morning. At the surface there was a low pressure area situated just off the Galveston coast. This activity is expected to ev- entually move inland the rest of the morning given the location and rotation associated with the upper low that is still lingering over the state. Models continue to slowly push the upper low further to the SW with time. thereby helping to drag a weak cold front into the area late this afternoon/early tonight.
333 PM CDT SUN JUN 5 2016 Main forecast concerns for the short term will be a mainly dry forecast, however with a cold front Monday, have added isolated isolated thunderstorms.
Dew points are currently sitting in the lower 60's on the westside in some locations, so we believe 1500-2000 j/kg of CAPE is reasonable for this afternoon.
First, a longwave (northern stream) trough axis that currently extends from the western Great Lakes to the mid Mississippi River Valley, and will continue to move east today. Second, a nearly cut- off upper low over extreme east-central Texas continues to send deep sub-tropical moisture and waves of energy north/east across the Southeast region. As northern branch upr trough kicks east today, a weak frontal boundary will slide across north/central GA.
238 PM CDT SUN JUN 5 2016 Drier air in place over the region that arrived behind yesterday's cold front will continue to yield below average lows the next couple of nights.
A cold front will move into the area Monday afternoon, possibly causing isolated to scattered thunderstorms.
444 PM EDT SUN JUN 5 2016 A cold front extending from Ohio to western Tennessee and will move east and off the mid Atlantic coast by Monday morning.
Upstream, in central Kentucky, the cold front lags behind slowly pushing east. A brief bout of high pressure moving in will create conditions favorable for fog development tonight, especially where some of the areas received significant rainfall earlier today. Heading into the day on Monday, with a upper level pattern featuring a persistent trough over the upper Great Lakes region and another significant wave swinging southeast through the OH Valley.
Early this morning the elongated mid and upper level low stretched from Southeast Texas southwest through the Middle and Lower Texas coastal waters.
400 PM EDT SUN JUN 5 2016 A cold front will move east tonight. Another cold front will follow on Monday, bringing a good chance for showers and thunderstorms.
Small upper low is spinning over northern CA and western NV and this will remain across the Rockies through mid week. This area will see the highest pop through the afternoon and evening.
dewpoints running on average about 5-10 degrees cooler than 24hrs ago. Weak cold air advection along with the northwesterly surface winds could help to keep afternoon temps near to maybe a couple degrees cooler compared to yesterday.
255 PM CDT SUN JUN 5 2016 19z/2 pm surface analysis shows deepening 994 mb low pressure northeast of Georgian Bay Canada with a frontal boundary extending sw across southeast IN and far southeast IL approaching the Ohio river. A 551 dm 500 mb low over western Ontario with a fairly strong upper level trof over the Great Lakes region and Ohio river valley with IL caught in its nw upper level flow. Lows tonight mostly in the lower 60s with a few upper 50s possible from I-74 north.
152 PM PDT SUN JUN 5 2016 Low pressure will bring isolated to scattered thunderstorms through Monday with gusty outflow winds and brief heavy rain possible.
1128 AM MDT SUN JUN 5 2016 Upper level ridging remains the dominate feature over the region for another 48 hours. Just enough juice being added to the lower levels to allow for the build-up of a few high based showers and thunderstorms across the higher terrain this afternoon and evening and again Monday afternoon.
216 PM EDT SUN JUN 5 2016 An upper level trough will swing across the Ohio Valley today, pushing a cold front with it.
GFS ensemble mean suggests that the upper low with axis near the Coast will slowly decay during the period. The chance for activity should decrease significantly Monday Night owing to drier air/weaker upper low.
650 PM EDT SUN JUN 5 2016 A cold front will move east tonight. Another cold front will follow on Monday, bringing a good chance for showers and thunderstorms.
316 PM CDT SUN JUN 5 2016 High pressure over the central Great Plains will drift southeast over Oklahoma and northeast Texas by Monday afternoon. As this happens, another cold front will press south from the Dakotas and the Upper Midwest tonight into Monday morning should be into northern Missouri by early to mid afternoon Monday. Lift provided by the cold front combined with strong diurnal heating and a sharpening trof aloft should provide ample ingredients for precipitation. Highs Monday should be a little warmer than today in westerly flow ahead of the front. Carney Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue through the early evening hours on Monday night across much of the area as the cold front moves south before they begin to diminish with the loss of daytime heating.
Weak upper level trough undercutting the ridge moves slowly across the Four Corners region through mid week.
/issued 1155 AM CDT SUN JUN 5 2016/ A cold front remains located across Northeast Mississippi this morning. but most locations were still in the low and mid 70s. moisture throughout the column will slowly push southeast today as current upper trough axis pushes into the Ohio and Tennessee River Valleys. Closer to the surface a weaker refection of the upper trough will also push across the area. Highs today will drop into the low and mid 80s.
Satl imagery shows the persistent upper low along the southeast Texas coast with ridging over the Intermountain West.
217 PM CDT SUN JUN 5 2016 A cold front currently stretches from Clarksville, Tennessee to Greenwood, Mississippi. High pressure will briefly build into the area on Monday. However, another cold front will begin pushing into northern areas of the Mid-South by late Monday night.
Today Through Monday Night Rainy pattern as of late will end today as a cold front pushes away from Arkansas toward the Gulf of Mexico, and high pressure begins building into the area from the Plains.
Widespread cloud cover and precipitation have kept temperatures in the low to mid 70s and instability values have been lower than forecast. The upper level trough is beginning to lift out to the northeast over the Ohio River Valley and Great Lake Region. Latest water vapor imagery indicates much drier air moving in behind the trough in the mid and upper levels.
151 PM EDT SUN JUN 5 2016 Showers and a few thunderstorms this afternoon as a cold front moves through the region by early tonight. Fairly widespread shower coverage now mainly across the ridges with bulk of region dry at 17Z. A mid level trough will be the dominant feature during this period.
525 PM EDT SUN JUN 5 2016 An approaching cold front will stall near the forecast area Monday.
212 PM EDT SUN JUN 5 2016 Low pressure will track west of the area tonight into Monday.
Next mid level circulation will begin dropping into the trough later tonight so may see some additional shra moving back into the NE so maintained some low pops aft midnight. With column cooling will see temperatures a bit cooler tonight. Temperatures quite a bit cooler with highs in the 60s expected. High pressure will build in starting Monday night which will be the start of a modest stretch of dry weather.
1139 AM MDT SUN JUN 5 2016 Strong upper ridging will remain across the wrn CONUS through the short term. Upper ridge will dominate the weather for the period, with temperatures well above average.
322 PM CDT SUN JUN 5 2016 Canadian high pressure will begin building south across the Dakotas on Monday with cooler 850mb temps and breezy north winds. Highs will be several degrees cooler compared to today with temps ranging from the upper 60s east to mid 70s west.
The higher resolution models are hinting that temperatures of about 85 to 88 will be needed to get some of these fairly high based showers to develop. Windy and cooler on Monday with an increase in cloud cover also likely, especially across southwest Minnesota and far eastern South Dakota.
The Gfs and especially the Nam have the highest temperatures. I did nudge temperatures up a few degrees which will end up closer to the warmer guidance.
/ISSUED 319 AM CDT SUN JUN 5 2016/ An upper level ridge currently over the Desert Southwest will provide dry weather across North and Central Texas this week as it develops east across the central U. For today, an elongated trough which stretches roughly from the Texas Coast to Memphis, TN may provide enough lift across the southeast zones to produce occasional showers today. Any showers which form in this area will move southwest around the northern edge of the Gulf Coast trough. Temperatures will be plenty warm today and for the rest of the week for that matter as the upper ridge builds overhead and sunny days transpire.
437 PM EDT SUN JUN 5 2016 A cold front will cross the region from the west this evening.
Central Alabama will remain in northwesterly upper level flow briefly as ridging amplifies over the Central Plains, before the ridge shifts eastward.
334 PM CDT SUN JUN 5 2016 Scattered showers have developed across much of Southeast Texas this afternoon as temperatures have risen into the low to mid 80s. This activity is moving from northeast to southwest, with development and movement aided by a gradually decaying shear axis stretching from the Lower Texas Coast into Louisiana per afternoon water vapor imagery. Still concerned about a localized minor flood threat where convection trains or along colliding outflow boundaries with the high precipitable water values in place (1.
111 PM EDT SUN JUN 5 2016 Showers and a few thunderstorms this afternoon as a cold front moves through the region by early tonight. Fairly widespread shower coverage now mainly across the ridges with bulk of region dry at 17Z. A mid level trough will be the dominant feature during this period.
/issued 212 AM CDT SUN JUN 5 2016/ Northwesterly flow aloft associated with a ridge centered over southern AZ will dominate the weather pattern for the day. Aldrich Upper level ridging over the western CONUS will shift eastward through the week, eventually becoming centered over the plains states by the end of the week.
Upper ridge aloft dominates across much of the Great Basin with a resultant moderate Northwest flow aloft over Colorado. Water vapor imagery indicating a pronounced wave undercutting the ridge and is now across Southwest Wyoming.
High pressure ridge remains over Central and Southwest Montana for mostly dry conditions through late Monday morning. The airmass will become slightly unstable during the afternoon with the best chance of an isolated thunderstorm over the higher terrain of Southwest Montana.
Given the dearth of convective showers and the main trough pushing off to the east, have removed pops for the remainder of the evening.
The clearing skies and cooler temperatures along with the wet ground should provide a good opportunity for patchy fog to develop on Monday morning. For the first half of the work week an upper trough will set up over the eastern half of the U.
/issued 1121 AM CDT SUN JUN 5 2016/ Weakening upper level trough looks more like a shear zone this morning with more clouds than bite. /issued 344 AM CDT SUN JUN 5 2016/ Upper low pressure area that has been producing the persistent rainfall across the area is currently near the upper Texas coast. GPS-MET/Satellite derived TPW products indicate drier profile moving north through the central gulf as the low appears to be loosing its identity. Forecast still seems to be on track as trof remains over the area for the next few days as the upper low shears out.
234 PM CDT SUN JUN 5 2016 Inverted trough over se TX coast. dipping further swd over east TX in response to movement of trough. although this pocket of cooler dewpoints expected to rebound back into at least lower 60s as wraparound flow subsides later tonight.
158 PM PDT SUN JUN 5 2016 A strong ridge of high pressure will prevail and bring mainly dry weather and much warmer than average temperatures to the central California interior through mid week. A weak low pressure system will move over northern California today and will bring a slight chance of afternoon and evening thunderstorms over the higher elevations of the Sierra Nevada through Monday. Weak upper low center has moved inland into northern California. The low center will move into the four corners area as the EPAC ridge will return for the early part of the week.
There was a nearly stacked low near the border between Ontario and Quebec, and its cold front trailed west through Ontario into Manitoba. A cold front will also drop through the Northland Monday. The cloud cover and cool/humid air will likely limit highs to only the upper 50s and lower 60s, but it will feel even cooler because of the wind.
551 PM CDT SUN JUN 5 2016 High pressure over the central Great Plains will drift southeast over Oklahoma and northeast Texas by Monday afternoon. As this happens, another cold front will press south from the Dakotas and the Upper Midwest tonight into Monday morning should be into northern Missouri by early to mid afternoon Monday. Lift provided by the cold front combined with strong diurnal heating and a sharpening trof aloft should provide ample ingredients for precipitation. Highs Monday should be a little warmer than today in westerly flow ahead of the front. Carney Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue through the early evening hours on Monday night across much of the area as the cold front moves south before they begin to diminish with the loss of daytime heating.
Aforementioned boundary tied in with a deep, negatively tilted low pressure system which will be propagating across Manitoba. LLJ continues to be well-aligned with this low all the way up into Canada, which will help abundant moisture surge into IA as the Gulf will be open.
CWA has been free of precip for the past few hours while the cold front makes steady eastward progress across the Dakotas. Cold front will make steady progress across the CWA this morning, basically clearing the area by 18Z. Left some low pops in the forecast through the morning for anything that may develop along the cold front over the next several hours. Main issue over our area today will be the increased fire danger over central SD as very dry air moves in behind the cold front. Increased highs a few degrees too, especially east where they will still tap into some warmer air late this morning into the afternoon. Sunday stays breezy and warm as low pressure moves east across southern Canada.
1030 AM EDT Sat Jun 25 2016 High pressure will build overhead this morning and remain in place through Sunday. High pressure will move off the coast Sunday night.
Upper ridge stretches from the Arklatex southeastward to Florida. By Sunday night, upper high begins to move and expand westward.