Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
An upper low will be over the Pacific NW and British Columbia today and generally remain there over the weekend. Upper ridge over Eastern Montana will bring a warm and dry day to the forecast area. The ridge moves east into the Dakotas tonight. A cold front move across the forecast area tonight. Northwest winds behind the cold front tonight will initially be strong enough to maintain the Lake Wind Advisory but the winds will diminish by Saturday morning and current forecast have NW winds staying below Lake Wind Advisory criteria of 20 mph on Saturday. Saturday will be dry for the most part with Northeast Montana between systems in SW flow aloft with cooler temperatures.
Cloud cover and northerly flow will allow temperatures to only reach into the lower 60s with a few locations reaching into the middle 60s. High pressure will be centered south of the region at the beginning of the period.
347 AM EDT Fri May 12 2017 A narrow area of high pressure will hold on for one more day keeping much of the area dry into Friday. On Saturday, low pressure will move in from the Ohio Valley and bring rain for the weekend. Weather continues to be quiet this evening with a layer of high level clouds moving in from the west, which will help keep temperatures in the lower to mid 40s and possibly a few upper 30s in the Catskills. Most of the high res short range model guidance continues to hint at this type of solution, so have kept the previous overnight low forecast temps about the same. Still, narrow ridge between the lows holds for much of Friday bring another dry day. This in turn deepens the inverted trough sweeping east during the night.
400 AM CDT Fri May 12 2017 A strong high pressure ridge will be moving into the region over the next 24 hours. The weekend looks very nice as the high pressure ridge continues to build into the region. The high pressure ridge will begin to move off to the East bringing the winds around to the South and Southwest.
Ridging will begin to be shunted eastward and overtopped by progressing mid level low across the southern Plains. An upper trough, centered over the TX Panhandle this morning, will translate southeastward through our forecast area on Saturday. This system (and its associated weak surface cold front) will be preceded by a good chance of rain Friday night and Saturday, followed by clearing skies Saturday night.
225 AM EDT Fri May 12 2017 Weather pattern will remain relatively quiet over the next few days as area falls in between upper low pressure currently over Oklahoma and another upper low slowly working ESE into western Ontario. As these upper level features shift into eastern NOAM, expect a general troughiness to expand across the central Great Lakes.
With the low to our south and plenty of clouds and rain in central Kentucky, instability will be weak, but some rumbles of thunder will still be possible across the south. On Saturday high pressure will build into the mid Mississippi and lower Ohio Valleys, giving us a dry day with plenty of sunshine. Temperatures will be pleasant too, with highs in the lower and middle 70s.
325 AM MDT Fri May 12 2017 Ridge axis centered along the spine of the Rockies early this morning will slowly translate east toward the plains today. Large scale subsidence combined with a dry air mass in place will yield sunny, dry and warmer conditions today. Mid/upper-level flow backs to the southwest tonight & Saturday as trough across the PacNW and W Coast inches east as the bulk of the energy lifts northeast into Canada. At the sfc, a deepening lee- side pressure trof will interact with the right entrance region of the 100+KT H3 jet-streak to spark a few afternoon and early evening shower/thunderstorms on Saturday from the Laramie Range east into the NW Nebraska Panhandle.
533 AM EDT Fri May 12 2017 A frontal boundary across NC will slowly move southward and into the northern Midlands this afternoon as low pressure over the Lower MS Valley tracks eastward. Showers and thunderstorms will begin this afternoon with low pressure and a cold front crossing the area Saturday.
Showers have also been confined near lingering weak inverted trof/sfc convergent area. Inverted surface trof weakens and sags southeast through the day. Similar to yesterday, forecast soundings show the low levels remaining dry below 3k ft, but can not rule out a few light showers developing along this weak convergence zone.
1226 AM CDT Fri May 12 2017 High pressure will build overhead tonight with clear skies and light winds. take hold Friday with low pressure developing on the Nrn High plains. An upper level low near the Pacific coast will slowly migrate into the Western U.
321 AM EDT Fri May 12 2017 High pressure will build across the area today and Saturday.
Another low (originally an inverted trof from the low to the south) is stalled between James Bay and eastern upper MI. An 850mb theta-e ridge extends ssw from the low, to the east half of upper MI and northern Lake MI. the theta-e ridge aloft will drift slowly eastward today, and will be over ne lower MI tonight. Max temps still pretty comfy in the 60s (cooler on some coasts). Blocked up pattern slowly relents as the cutoff upper trough to our north gets shunted to the southeast by an upper level ridge approaching from the west.
608 AM EDT Fri May 12 2017 High pressure will build across the area today and Saturday.
331 AM CDT Fri May 12 2017 330 AM CDT Early morning surface analysis depicts a subtle inverted trough and moisture axis from central Wisconsin to the mid-Mississippi Valley of western Illinois and eastern Missouri. Partly sunny/mostly cloudy skies expected across north central IL near the trough, while areas farther east/southeast should see more sun. Weak trough axis continues to wash out across the area tonight with some lingering patchy cloud cover.
249 AM CDT Fri May 12 2017 A few light wrap-around showers associated with the departing upper level low over eastern Oklahoma should come to an end before sunrise today. Other than some diurnal CU in the far SE CWA (hinted at most bullishly by the NAM), skies should be clear for much of the day with highs in the low 70s under decreasing northerly flow. Given the light winds and clear skies, trended slightly cooler on lows tonight with the mention of patchy fog closer to the high center in the early morning hours, especially along the Kansas River Valley.
/issued 307 AM CDT Fri May 12 2017/ An upper trough is centered over eastern Oklahoma with an upper ridge moving over southeast New Mexico and West Texas. This will allow for high temperatures today to be a little cooler than yesterday and slightly below normal for this time of year. Upper ridging continues over the region on Saturday but temperatures will warm up to near or above normal as southeast to south surface winds return to the area.
/issued 326 AM CDT Fri May 12 2017/ The upper low that brought storms the last 2 days is moving away from central Oklahoma early this morning.
142 AM EDT Fri May 12 2017 High pressure over the Upper Midwest will move slowly southeast providing fair weather with a slow warming trend over the next few days. A very subtle weak inverted trough appears to be enhanced downstream of this feature, which also has sharpened low level convergence axis associated with remnants of lake breeze. Wk ridge will build into the area Friday night providing fair wx with good radiational cooling allowing for lows again in the l-m40s. This will be followed by a wk cold front dropping se across the Grtlks over the weekend.
307 AM CDT Fri May 12 2017 An upper trough is centered over eastern Oklahoma with an upper ridge moving over southeast New Mexico and West Texas. This will allow for high temperatures today to be a little cooler than yesterday and slightly below normal for this time of year. Upper ridging continues over the region on Saturday but temperatures will warm up to near or above normal as southeast to south surface winds return to the area.
Upper low has pulled east of the area and aside from some isolated showers across the plains. Warmer and Drier through the Weekend.
VFR conditions should return by 15z as winds increase from the SW ahead of an approaching cold front. A closed upper low over Oklahoma early this morning will translate east southeastward into northern Mississippi this evening. At that time, the associated cold front will extend southwestward from a low over central Mississippi to the western Gulf.
226 AM CDT Fri May 12 2017 A strong high pressure ridge will be moving into the region over the next 24 hours. The weekend looks very nice as the high pressure ridge continues to build into the region. The high pressure ridge will begin to move off to the East bringing the winds around to the South and Southwest.
524 AM CDT Fri May 12 2017 Our air temps are in the low to mid 60s under several decks of clouds and we are looking forward to all of the rain totals to come. The cold front is just now edging into our NE TX counties, but will drop in the front door quickly mid to late morning.
/issued 748 PM EDT Thu May 11 2017/ High pressure over the Southeastern United States will slowly move east into the Western Atlantic Waters through Friday. The very warm to hot conditions along with mostly clear skies will allow for the humidities to fall again down into the lower to mid 30s over the interior areas for Friday afternoon. High pressure will continue to dominate the weather across the region for tonight and into Friday. /issued 324 PM EDT Thu May 11 2017/ Rest of Today and Tonight: High pressure continues to dominate across South Florida with dry conditions and warm temperatures with highs today around 90 degrees.
Convective intensity should begin to diminish late this evening, though occasional rain and thunderstorms will continue through the night as the upper level low swings through the area. Temperatures tomorrow will be cooler, with highs in the upper 60s and low 70s. Beautiful conditions are then expected on Saturday as high pressure builds into the region.
The ridge will continue to push east today with a cold front pushing through the area this evening. Ahead of the the cold front with deep mixing, temperatures will again climb into the 80s, with much of the plains in the mid 80s. The low levels will still be somewhat dry, so some of these thunderstorms will be capable of producing some strong winds. CAMs have not shown any solutions that have been significantly different to that of the lower resolution models. With the cooler temperatures behind the front, around 20 degrees cooler, there will not be nearly as much instability to work with.
As a cold front continues to bring winds from the north today, expect afternoon highs cooler than previous days, mainly around 80.
324 AM MST Fri May 12 2017 Today will be the warmest day in nearly a week as an area of high pressure moves by to the east.
SHORT TERM (Today through Saturday): A weak cold front will move into the northern portions of the CWA this morning and into the Rio Grande valley this afternoon. Low to mid level moisture is limited across the area but an isolated shower or thunderstorm may develop across southern portions of the CWA this afternoon as well as offshore the lower Texas coast. Expect slightly cooler temperatures tonight into Saturday as drier air filters into the area.
358 AM EDT Fri May 12 2017 Low pressure will drift east across the Lower Ohio Valley today into tonight.
Winds will weaken through the evening as high pressure builds into the region, keeping roughly N-NE flow.
307 AM EDT Fri May 12 2017 Weak high pressure builds in for today, which should provide slightly milder temperatures and more sunny breaks.
510 AM CDT Fri May 12 2017 Upper level low pressure system will exit the area today with dry northerly flow in place. Temperatures will continue on the rise over the next few days, as the ridge of high pressure moves over the central CONUS.
421 AM MDT Fri May 12 2017 An upper level ridge will move across the state today and be east of Colorado tonight. There may be enough moisture and instability for a few high based showers and storms over the higher terrain along and south on I-70. This will help keep temperatures up with lows in the lower 50s possible in places.
A upper level trough will move in during the period, with the trough axis near our eastern border by the end of the short term period. A weak cold front will push through as well.
The closed low at H500 will drift slowly inland over NW Washington with a broad trough along the West coast. Some of these storms could generate small hail and gusty winds as there is moderate wind shear associated with the trough. The trough will settle over the West coast through the weekend with a series of short wave trough rotating into our forecast area.
A closed upper low over Oklahoma early this morning will translate east southeastward into northern Mississippi this evening. At that time, the associated cold front will extend southwestward from a low over central Mississippi to the western Gulf.
Sunshine and warmer temperatures will allow for some drying of this recent wet storm. There remains a flood threat in Trego county along Big Creek and perhaps a little later into Ellis county by tonight, so todays warmer and sunny weather may be welcome. High pressure at the surface will move east of the area by evening and eventual return to southerly flow.
143 AM EDT Fri May 12 2017 A narrow area of high pressure will hold on for one more day keeping much of the area dry into Friday. On Saturday, low pressure will move in from the Ohio Valley and bring rain for the weekend. Weather continues to be quiet this evening with a layer of high level clouds moving in from the west, which will help keep temperatures in the lower to mid 40s and possibly a few upper 30s in the Catskills. Most of the high res short range model guidance continues to hint at this type of solution, so have kept the previous overnight low forecast temps about the same. Still, narrow ridge between the lows holds for much of Friday bring another dry day. This in turn deepens the inverted trough sweeping east during the night.
The upper low responsible for the weather across the region the last few days continues to meander eastward, and per latest satellite imagery, is currently located over far northwestern Oklahoma. As the low continues its eastward progression, a weak trailing cold front will drop southward through the area, with overnight lows tonight a few degrees cooler than last night for some locations. There may be a few diurnally driven thunderstorms on Saturday afternoon and evening, though storms are expected to remain confined to the higher terrain across the west.
A split upper jet structure currently in place within the eastern portion of the upper trof gradually transitions to a single jet maximum over the north central Gulf. Upper level divergence associated with this pattern is currently favoring a broken line of convection from northwest Mississippi to western Louisiana ahead of the advancing cold front.
A brief period of shallow field fog is possible at KPGD toward sunrise, however confidence is lower than previous morning due to the presence of the higher clouds. High pressure remains parked over the area and will continue to produce rain-free conditions tonight and on Friday. High pressure over the Gulf this afternoon will weaken and shift east later tonight through Friday as a cold front approaches from the west. The cold front will move into the eastern Gulf waters on Saturday where it will wash out during Saturday night with diminishing winds expected.
348 AM CDT Fri May 12 2017 Sunshine and warmer temperatures will allow for some drying of this recent wet storm. There remains a flood threat in Trego county along Big Creek and perhaps a little later into Ellis county by tonight, so todays warmer and sunny weather may be welcome. High pressure at the surface will move east of the area by evening and eventual return to southerly flow.
408 AM EDT Fri May 12 2017 We'll experience one more rain-free day, under the influence of high pressure.
631 AM EDT Fri May 12 2017 Weak high pressure builds in for today, which should provide slightly milder temperatures and more sunny breaks.
1143 PM MDT Thu May 11 2017 06Z TAF CYCLE VFR condtions will prevail during the next 24 hours as an upper level ridge builds in from the west. The recent warming trend will continue through Saturday as warmer southwest flow aloft develops in the wake of a ridge of high pressure that will cross tonight. There may be a few showers and thunderstorms in the northern mountains Friday and Saturday afternoon as an upper level trough passes north of New Mexico.
With the strong northwest winds developing as the trough lifts to the northeast, we still look for wind gusts approaching 50 mph by mid afternoon over parts of west central Minnesota. Rain will change to snow around 00z along the MN/WI border with strong northwest winds in the wake of the low.
Weak upper ridging builds into the region tonight through Monday with the upper flow turning southwesterly by Monday night as the next trough approaches in the continued progressive upper flow pattern.
Lows tonight will be warmer with more low clouds and fog expected than last night, along with weak low-level southeasterly flow developing. Dry weather will continue into Monday as a deep-layer ridge shifts eastward ahead of a developing storm system. A major shift in the weather pattern is expected for the rest of the week and beyond as a longwave trough develops over Eastern North America.
345 PM CST Sun Dec 3 2017 The focus through Monday will be the passage of a strong cold front associated with an potent upper level storm system approaching the area. The upper system will move into Nebraska/South Dakota towards sunrise Monday and cold front will begin making its way into central Nebraska overnight and through most of the forecast area by sunrise. As the pattern shifts with a large upper trough moving into the east CONUS, cooler weather will ensue.
244 PM CST Sun Dec 3 2017 Early this afternoon, high pressure was centered over the Ohio Valley region, with low pressure from NE Wyoming to near Denver. For tonight, the high will continue slowly east, allowing for some pressure falls, keeping SSE winds up overnight. A sharp H5 trof currently over the NW U. We will be monitoring the approach of an associated cold front trailing SW from the low. The cold front will move across the region Monday night.
The pattern changing upper trough moves inland today, through the intermountain region this evening and across the central high plains region during the day on Monday.
1047 AM PST Sun Dec 3 2017 Bands of light rain and snow will move through the Idaho Panhandle and southeast Washington today low pressure system slowly exits the region.
259 PM CST Sun Dec 3 2017 Overall, the synoptic scale still appears similar with strong cold front associated upper trough over the intermountain west shifting east into the plains. Cold front is expected to work through the area in the morning hours with temperatures falling behind the front.
1152 AM CST Sun Dec 3 2017 The high pressure ridge axis that is now dominating the eastern half of the country slipped to the east overnight. As a result, mostly south/southeasterly winds are spread across Central IL on this side of the ridge. Clear skies prevailing over the forecast area early this morning, courtesy of high pressure over the Midwest.
The high resolution HRRR and RAP13 bring a return of low clouds/fog to KMAF. At this time it looks like the NM TAF sites should happily miss out on the low clouds/fog. /issued 332 AM CST Sun Dec 3 2017/ Much above normal temperatures will continue today through Monday with mainly zonal flow aloft continuing across the region with low level thermal ridging in place.
Ahead of system, decent moisture convergence, so could see isolated/scattered shower activity develop ahead of strong cold front after 06z Monday. Byrd The aforementioned strong cold front will move across the region on Monday night. SHRA/TSRA will also increase in coverage on Monday night in tandem with increasing large-scale ascent ahead of a strong PV anomaly which will begin carving out a deep longwave trough over the eastern half of the CONUS. A few disturbances will rotate around the western edge of the deep trough over the eastern CONUS, and a few of these features could bring a chance of rain or snow to the area.
Cold front arriving around 16-18Z time period Monday with winds shifting out of the northwest and will likely be 10-20kts, gusting 20-30kts. Upper trough pushes south and east of the forecast area by tonight with another open wave tracking south and east across the Great Basin region and Rockies tonight and then into the northern and central Plains states Monday.
Meanwhile, local radars are detecting only a few showers on the outer coastal waters beyond 20 nm south of the Lower keys. Surface wise, a large and sprawling area of high pressure is located over the entire eastern United States, the Gulf of Mexico and the Florida peninsula.
322 PM EST Sun Dec 3 2017 Another mild and pleasant December day in store as a dome of high pressure sits over the region. Temperatures are a couple of degrees warmer now when compared to yesterday near this time, with most observing sites sitting somewhere in the upper 50s to low 60s. Mid to high level clouds will increase this evening, and continue to increase into tomorrow morning ahead of a strong upper level trough and surface cold front. This in turn will create a strong pressure gradient over the lower Ohio Valley, resulting in a very breezy Monday.
1245 PM CST Sun Dec 3 2017 A near-stationary warm frontal boundary draped along the upper Texas coastline. /ISSUED 928 AM CST Sun Dec 3 2017/ At 800 AM, a weak warm front extended from about Cameron LA to near Galveston and then southwest toward Palacios. At 850 mb, high pressure was located over the western Gulf and the flow on the back side of this feature was bringing deeper moisture into SE TX. A weak 850 mb trough was noted across eastern New mexico as well. A short wave trough was also noted over western Texas. The combination of the warm front and warm air advection, the short wave and favorable upper level winds should yield higher rain chances today and will bump PoPs to high end end chance/likely for much of SE TX.
148 PM MST Sun Dec 3 2017 Broad upper ridging covers the central CONUS, and the next trough to affect the region is pushing numerous clouds into the northern plains. Wintry weather will arrive abruptly tonight as the upper trough crosses the Rockies. A strong cold front will sweep through the region tonight, and precipitation (rain changing to snow) will expand from west to east. A secondary wave associated with the upper trough will slide through the area Monday night, bringing another round of upslope snow to the northern Hills, and a reinforcing shot of cold air.
The cold front continues to march eastward this afternoon. Within this band, expect 2-5" of snow with potentially higher amounts along the higher east benches. We are seeing some shadowing in some valleys and warmer/drier air due to downslope. Bundle up as most places will NOT get above freezing.
818 AM PST Sun Dec 3 2017 Bands of light rain and snow will move through the Idaho Panhandle and southeast Washington today low pressure system slowly exits the region. Concerning the winter weather advisories post frontal northwest flow has developed with the upper trough axis crossing into western Montana this morning.
A south to southwesterly flow will persist across western Kansas tonight as a lee side trough of low pressure remains anchored across extreme eastern Colorado. This will draw warmer air into the area resulting in lows only down into the 40s(F) and possibly the lower 50s(F), particularly across south central Kansas. Much colder air will spill into western Kansas Monday in wake of a strong cold front pushing through the area by early afternoon. Look for highs up into the 50s(F) further south and east with the lower to mid 60s(F) still possible in south central Kansas. The surface cold front is shown to enter our western counties as early as around 12 UTC, and move rapidly though the area by late morning.