Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Likewise, water vapor imagery shows troffing extending from the Upper Midwest sswwd to the wrn Gulf Region. 0 inches and mean RH values generally aoa 65 percent), no capping with troffing/weakness aloft and easily reachable convective temps spells scattered to numerous showers/storms each day through the short term. Fortunately forecast soundings show enough flow through the lower levels to keep the convection moving and (hopefully) keep rainfall totals low enough to minimize flood threat to just typical nuisance levels in favored locations.
Deep layer ridging and some mid-level air will continue to build in from the east through Saturday. Lows tonight in the lower 70s with highs in the lower to possibly mid 90s. The base of a broad upper trough grazing the southeast US should prompt the subtropical ridge to retreat eastward and allow winds to flow out of the south and southwest. Other than the convective activity, hot and humid conditions continue as high temperatures peak in the low to perhaps mid 90s (heat indices in the low 100s). Overnight lows remain in the low 70s away from the coast.
Once this system clears out by Sunday night, high pressure builds into the region.
SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday): 500mb ridge over the western Gulf will provide a rather dry atmosphere over South Texas today before edging west Sunday allowing for a modest increase in moisture. Higher and deeper moisture content over the Gulf, possibly associated with weak inverted trough, and indicated by water vapor satellite tracks gradually west as the mid- level ridge also begins to retreat west.
321 AM CDT Sat Jul 17 2021 An upper level disturbance across srn ID and nern NV will move east and crest and amplifying upper level ridge across the cntl Rockies late this afternoon. The RAP and HRRR models suggest the focus will be across the Black Hills, Pine Ridge and the Cheyenne divide.
CD Chattanooga Airport, TN 72 87 71 84 70 / 30 60 60 80 60 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 72 88 70 82 69 / 20 60 60 80 60 Oak Ridge, TN 71 85 70 81 68 / 30 70 60 80 50 Tri Cities Airport, TN 67 87 68 80 66 / 30 70 60 80 50.
However, with the axis of a positively-tilted trough extending back into our CWA and some lingering instability in the area, we could still see a few stray diurnal showers and perhaps a thunderstorm during the late afternoon into early this evening. High temperatures by late this afternoon will top out 5-10 degrees below average, generally around 80 degrees to the low 80s. The cold front will slowly march it's way south into northern Arkansas by Saturday night into Sunday, though some low end chances of scattered convection will again be possible Saturday night into Sunday mainly across southern Missouri.
Some pockets of heavy rain are possible through 12Z but the overall flash flood threat continues to wane as midlevel trough and upper jet support shift eastward. This trough will swing through the region this weekend and support some continued chances for rain.
The large scale upper pattern across the United States will consist of a ridge over the Intermountain West and a downstream trough over about the northeast quarter of the country.
An upper level ridge axis over the Rockies will remain there over the weekend and gradually amplify.
1227 AM CDT Sat Jul 17 2021 (This evening through Saturday) Afternoon water vapor imagery shows the center of the upper level ridge over Arizona and western New Mexico. The continued influence from the ridge has kept our area mainly dry although a few isolated showers moved across Haskell and Throckmorton counties this morning. Otherwise, the quiet conditions will continue tonight and into Saturday as the upper ridge nudges a little bit further east into west Texas. Temperatures tonight will again be on the mild side, with lows generally in the lower to mid 70s.
Temperatures are steadily falling with a couple spots running a degree cooler from earlier rain. Otherwise, Formation of Scattered convection is expected through the taf period as an upper level trough axis slowly works across the area. A general trend toward more afternoon coverage is expected east of I-65 given the expected location of the aforementioned trough axis.
Upper level high near the four corners region beginning to strengthen today with the ridge axis extending north into Montana. Although we can't rule out some afternoon and evening thunderstorms and showers across the area, expect the coverage to become less by Sunday as the strengthening 599dm upper level high shifts northward into southwest Wyoming.
High pressure centered in the Central Atlantic is currently supporting moderate breezes across the coastal waters, with marine observation platforms recording a range of 10 to 12 knots across the nearshore waters. Temperatures are hovering in the lower 80s to near 80, with dewpoints currently in the lower 70s.
A mid level trough will continue just west of the area on Saturday before moving eastward some on Sunday.
Today Through Sunday Night Scattered showers/storms will continue today as outflow from remnant convection interacts with a longwave trough moving down into the Mid South Region.
However given lack of forcing and moisture (outside the low levels) it appears unlikely that the region would be able to bring any precip.
1030 PM CDT Fri Jul 16 2021 High pressure at the surface will keep relatively cooler and more stable air in place tonight into Saturday.
/Issued 331 PM EDT Fri Jul 16 2021/ The upper ridge over the western Atlantic and the southeast states persists through the night. The upper ridge begins to break down overnight as An upper trough deepens into the southeast states over the weekend. have left the highest pops across the northern third of the forecast area Saturday and Saturday night. A cold front out of the north will sink south on Sunday and stall out across central Georgia.
1105 PM EDT Fri Jul 16 2021 Shower and thunderstorm chance will continue until high pressure begins to build on Sunday. A warm front extending from Midwestern low press is lifting nwd and will be the convergent focus for warm- process rainfall through the night. Showers and more localized thunderstorms will continue Saturday as the upper trough/cold front slowly moves southeast.
Despite these cooler temps, dry conditions and occasionally smoky/hazy skies will continue through the period.
324 AM CDT Sat Jul 17 2021 Slow-moving heavy rain producing storms in a moist deep layer environment along an 850mb warm front are producing very localized flash flooding early this morning across portions of NE OK. This activity should fade during the morning hours as the low level jet weakens.
348 AM EDT Sat Jul 17 2021 Shower and thunderstorm chance will continue until high pressure begins to build on Sunday.
Thermal troughing still hanging back across lower Michigan will keep highs mostly upper 70s even with some sunshine.
(Today and tonight) The upper level high pressure system that extends southeast into Texas will continue to produce sinking air across the region today and tonight.
Early morning GOES IR imagery showed a midlevel trof axis roughly oriented along the MS River in the Midsouth. Given the aforementioned subsidence evident on GOES water vapor imagery, and that this subsident region will spread east behind the exiting trof axis, the blended CAM solutions are preferred over the global models for today.
1221 AM EDT Sat Jul 17 2021 Shower and thunderstorm chances will continue until high pressure begins to build on Sunday. A warm front extending from Midwestern low press is lifting nwd and will be the convergent focus for warm- process rainfall through the night. Showers and more localized thunderstorms will continue Saturday as the upper trough/cold front slowly moves southeast.
The 19Z MSAS surface analysis showed a broad area of high pressure that stretched from the Upper MS Valley to Lake Huron. Any activity will quickly diminish this evening, leaving the high pressure in control over the Great Lakes. High pressure to remain nearly stationary over the Great Lakes on Saturday and with upper heights building into WI, this should preclude any precipitation chances despite a slight uptick in moisture.
For tonight, most models are suggesting that convection may be well west of the area, although the Highres FV3, RAP, and NAM still indicated some potential in northeast NE. High temperatures both Saturday and Sunday in the lower to mid 80s, pretty decent days overall, but still well below normal values which are in the upper for most of July.
With the airmass so dry, this trough will move through the region dry with very little cloudiness. High pressure will build across the area tonight. Our area will continue to be dominated by high pressure throughout the week leading to mostly dry and warm conditions.
Out ahead of it, we're likely to continue to see isolated to scattered showers and storms, with the highest chances across southern and eastern Kentucky. The upper level trof remains overhead, and a mid- level vort max drops south from central IN to the Ohio River.
Today will see heights building as the ridge that will be the major driver of our weather starts to really strengthen.
623 AM CDT Sat Jul 17 2021 (Today and tonight) The upper level high pressure system that extends southeast into Texas will continue to produce sinking air across the region today and tonight.
1029 AM EDT Sat Jul 17 2021 Showers and thunderstorms will exit the region this evening with cold frontal passage. Convective coverage is expected to increase and spread east through the aftn/early eve in conjunction with cold frontal passage and aided by modest diurnal heating. Subsidence and drier air will generally bring an end to the precipitation after fropa by this evening, with only iso showers lingering as a result of the nearby proximity of the upper low cold core. The combination of residual moisture, placement of the upper trough, and diurnal heating may squeeze out an iso aftn shower Sunday.
In-conjunction with convection developing over the high terrain, a series of weak perturbations will pivot around the main anti-cyclonic feature in sub 25 kts H500 flow out of the north. Going into the day on Sunday, northerly H500 flow will be slightly stronger as a broad trough extends southwest from the western Great Lakes helps to steepen the main height fields over the central Plains.
324 AM MDT Sat Jul 17 2021 Significant upper-level ridging remains intact across a large part of the western & central CONUS today w/ 500 mb heights around 594- 596 dam centered over the 4 Corners. Lee troughing and associated convergence interacting with weak disturbances aloft should support the development of isolated to scattered showers/storms initially along the Laramie Range then increasing in coverage and intensity as they move eastward into an increasingly moist/unstable air mass over the western NE Panhandle during the late afternoon or early evening.
However, the northward trajectory of high pressure will also advect low level moisture back into the region. The ridge of high pressure becomes elongated on Sunday, truncating the higher moisture content to the southwest. High temperatures will climb back above seasonal norms in response to the northward trajectory of the high. The meridional shaped ridge will make little progress at the beginning to the week. Storms will remain isolated and scattered in nature, favoring southern ranges, until the ridge is slightly suppress or nudges eastward.
An upper trough over the Great Lakes will dig over Eastern Conus today through Sunday. The highest rain chances will be across the N two thirds of Central Alabama. While overnight lows will be fairly normal in the upper 60s to the lower 70s, daytime highs should be a little lower. This will be more evident in the N half where the rain chances will be the highest.
Clearing over the interior with warmer temperatures should make for a pleasant summer day.
657 AM CDT Sat Jul 17 2021 Warm and dry weather continues this weekend as the region remains under the influence of high pressure centered over the Great Lakes. Similar conditions are likely Sunday morning, although any fog may be limited to river valleys and other low-lying areas as temperatures look to be a few degrees warmer. Dry conditions are expected to continue through most of the week, and temperatures will continue to warm as upper level ridging strengthens over the central CONUS.
743 AM EDT Sat Jul 17 2021 Shower and thunderstorm chance will continue until high pressure begins to build on Sunday.
355 AM MDT Sat Jul 17 2021 An upper level high will begin to build into the region, with weak WNW flow aloft, across the area. There will still be some influx of monsoon moisture which will allow for a good chc of showers and storms over the higher terrain this aftn. Meanwhile, should see convection develop over the Cheyenne ridge this aftn with some additional development, along outflow boundaries, from higher terrain activity as well. For tonight, most activity will end in the early evening hours over the higher terrain. A strong upper level ridge of high pressure will meander across the Rocky Mountain Region through the period.
High pressure remains in control with below normal moisture (00Z sounding had right around 1.
401 AM CDT Sat Jul 17 2021 Warm and dry weather continues this weekend as the region remains under the influence of high pressure centered over the Great Lakes. Similar conditions are likely Sunday morning, although any fog may be limited to river valleys and other low-lying areas as temperatures look to be a few degrees warmer. Dry conditions are expected to continue through most of the week, and temperatures will continue to warm as upper level ridging strengthens over the central CONUS.
551 AM MDT Sat Jul 17 2021 Significant upper-level ridging remains intact across a large part of the western & central CONUS today w/ 500 mb heights around 594- 596 dam centered over the 4 Corners. Lee troughing and associated convergence interacting with weak disturbances aloft should support the development of isolated to scattered showers/storms initially along the Laramie Range then increasing in coverage and intensity as they move eastward into an increasingly moist/unstable air mass over the western NE Panhandle during the late afternoon or early evening.
A building ridge of high pressure this weekend, will bring a couple days of very hot and dry conditions to the area.
The frontal boundary looks to stall out along or just south of the Ohio River with weak high pressure building into the Great Lakes overnight. Mid level trof axis to drop south into the Ohio Valley Sunday. Expect highs generally in the lower 80s. The surface cold front will continue to slide further south into the lower Ohio Valley, having much less influence on the ILN CWA to start the work week.
445 AM PDT Sat Jul 17 2021 High pressure aloft over the Southwest will bring increasing monsoonal moisture to Southern California this weekend.
551 AM EDT Sat Jul 17 2021 Shower and thunderstorm chance will continue until high pressure begins to build on Sunday.
Looking upstream, next upper trough is sagging south across east central Wisconsin and should reach southern Great Lakes this afternoon. Approach of this trough appears to be slowing down eastward advance of the old pesky low level boundary that has been stalled across the region the past few days. This trough appears to have more characteristics of an inverted trough, from South Bend IN vicinity extending southward through Warsaw IN to near Marion IN. Some pockets of heavy rain are possible through 12Z but the overall flash flood threat continues to wane as midlevel trough and upper jet support shift eastward. This trough will swing through the region this weekend and support some continued chances for rain.
631 AM CDT Sat Jul 17 2021 An upper level disturbance across srn ID and nern NV will move east and crest and amplifying upper level ridge across the cntl Rockies late this afternoon. The RAP and HRRR models suggest the focus will be across the Black Hills, Pine Ridge and the Cheyenne divide.
1043 AM EDT Sat Jul 17 2021 Low-level ridging reaches west across northern Florida, maintaining moderate easterly breezes across the coastal waters of the Florida Keys.
640 AM CDT Sat Jul 17 2021 At the surface this morning, a diffuse cold front has been analyzed extending from KEVV westward to KSGF.
Dry atmospheric conditions with high pressure over the region will provide VFR conditions. /issued 250 AM CDT Sat Jul 17 2021/ SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday): 500mb ridge over the western Gulf will provide a rather dry atmosphere over South Texas today before edging west Sunday allowing for a modest increase in moisture. Higher and deeper moisture content over the Gulf, possibly associated with weak inverted trough, and indicated by water vapor satellite tracks gradually west as the mid- level ridge also begins to retreat west.
/Issued 324 AM CDT Sat Jul 17 2021/ Slow-moving heavy rain producing storms in a moist deep layer environment along an 850mb warm front are producing very localized flash flooding early this morning across portions of NE OK. This activity should fade during the morning hours as the low level jet weakens.
1021 AM EDT Sat Jul 17 2021 Ridge axis of high pressure over the west Atlantic remains north of the area, producing a light easterly flow across the region.
The Vamori Wash near Kom Vo was also experiencing near impactful levels to the bridge on highway 21. The ensemble means favor an active weather pattern this coming week as the upper high amplifies and becomes centered over the Four Corners on Sunday. Min RH values will be in the 27-37 percent range at the lower elevations, with higher values in the mountains.
Steering flow changes mean less activity dropping south into the lower elevations later in the day. Activity will now favor initiation over the higher elevations and moving northwest and west each afternoon.
636 AM CDT Sat Jul 17 2021 First round of ridge-topping convection has slid south into central Nebraska early this morning, and focus for the next 24-36 hours will be on potential repeat as additional waves move over the dominant western CONUS ridge, then drop southeastward through the Dakotas and Nebraska. Questions remain regarding timing/track, though general eastward shift in the upper ridge axis will favor convection sliding across our western counties, most likely near or west of the James River Valley, later tonight into Sunday morning. Upper ridge remains in place across the Rockies/High Plains through much of the week ahead, pushing jet stream well north into southern Canada.
402 AM CDT Sat Jul 17 2021 First round of ridge-topping convection has slid south into central Nebraska early this morning, and focus for the next 24-36 hours will be on potential repeat as additional waves move over the dominant western CONUS ridge, then drop southeastward through the Dakotas and Nebraska. Questions remain regarding timing/track, though general eastward shift in the upper ridge axis will favor convection sliding across our western counties, most likely near or west of the James River Valley, later tonight into Sunday morning. Upper ridge remains in place across the Rockies/High Plains through much of the week ahead, pushing jet stream well north into southern Canada.
With the ridge still sitting just to our north we will see one more day of easterly flow. This means the highest concentration of showers and storms will be along the west coast in the late afternoon and evening hours. /issued 241 AM EDT Sat Jul 17 2021/ The atmosphere continues to moisten especially over Central/South FL with broad weak ridging over the region.
527 AM CDT Sat Jul 17 2021 (Today through Sunday afternoon) A subtropical ridge located over NM is set to move over the Four Corners this afternoon. Convection will stay confined to the western portions of the CWA, southeast NM and the higher terrain of West Texas. The subtropical ridge will continue northward reducing mid lvl heights over the region. Therefore, Sun temps are likely to be a degree or two cooler.
Convection will remain mostly isolated this afternoon and evening as ridge with dry air aloft linger over the area. Moisture will begin to increase on Sunday which should bring an increase in coverage of diurnal convection as the ridge shifts to the south.
Otherwise, dry weather will continue, with lows tonight in the low to mid 70s and highs Sunday in the low to mid 90s.
Upper ridging with dry air and the subsidence over our southwestern counties has shut down the showers and thunderstorms so far today and although a few will be possible they should be slow moving and very isolated. Rain chances start back up near sunrise over the coastal waters and then spread into the coastal counties but with the ridge so close by rain chances will remain low Sunday and probably just along and south of Wharton to Conroe to Livingston line. Upper flow becoming a little more north/northwesterly Sunday night as upper trough dips down through the Ohio Valley and the tail passes by to the northeast and the shear axis trails off into S Tx. Will be watching the cold front (weak) backdooring into OK/AR.
Temperatures should climb into the 91-96 degree range a degree or 2 warmer than climo. Warm aloft with 700-500mb ridging centered atop Freeport with subsidence evident on satellite on the northwest flank of the ridge.
Upper level troughing is slower in departing the region and will linger over the central Great Lakes through the rest of this weekend. Main consequence of this trough is maintaining a seasonably average airmass with 850mb temps hanging around 13-14C.
1228 PM CDT Sat Jul 17 2021 (Today and tonight) The upper level high pressure system that extends southeast into Texas will continue to produce sinking air across the region today and tonight.
Deep troughing is centered over the Great Lakes region with cyclonic flow encompassing much of the eastern CONUS. Temperatures will range from the lower 80s northwest to lower 90s southeast. We could see isolated to scattered showers persist through the night with support from the trough, but overall coverage will still begin decreasing after sunset. The parent trough will shift slightly to the east tomorrow, but this will change very little in terms of the current pattern.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 71 84 70 85 69 / 40 60 50 50 20 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 70 84 69 85 68 / 50 60 50 50 20 Oak Ridge, TN 69 83 68 83 67 / 30 60 50 40 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 68 82 64 83 63 / 40 60 40 40 10.
High pressure will be situated in a favorable location near the Four Corners leading to widespread daily chances for showers and thunderstorms.
These ridge riders will continue to bring a few stray showers and thunderstorms to the Northern Plains, similar to the previous few nights. Most of the smoke this afternoon has stayed at the higher levels, with improved air quality so let the AQA expire. The upper ridge will continue to amplify into tomorrow, so think that temps will be another degree or so warmer, even with the possibility of smoke reducing warming just a bit. Another weak ridge rider will begin to move down into the area Sunday night. Current CAMs and global models bring most of the activity into our northern CWA from Canada, but with weak flow under the ridge uncertainty is high.
The main threat will be damaging wind gusts along this boundary into the evening, perhaps nearing portions of the OKC metro, where DCAPE ridge will reside from there SE along the I-44 corridor.
Temperatures are on track for highs in the mid 80s to the lower 90s by late afternoon under mostly sunny skies.