Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Generally fair skies and light westerly boundary layer flow across the northern plains region tonight and early on Sunday will see a transition back to a northwest flow and overall cooler pattern after midday on Sunday. A weak surface cold front will accompany the passage of that H5 trof through the FA late Sunday forenoon. Westerly sfc flow will contribute to substantial warming on Wed; our current fcst of from freezing to near 40 may be a tad too cool when all is said and done.
VFR conditions and S/SE winds will continue through this evening ahead of the next strong cold front that will move through the region overnight. The only other concern is the potential for patchy light freezing rain/freezing drizzle that could affect MAF and possibly FST for a few hours post-FROPA, however, confidence is too low at this time to include mention. /issued 222 PM CST Sat Feb 10 2018/ A strong cold front has stalled this afternoon just west of the Pecos River. There is still an opportunity for some light freezing drizzle overnight across the eastern Permian Basin, but impacts are expected to remain minimal.
Mid level heights will, generally speaking, be on the rise as Gulf of Mexico ridge amplifies.
With patchy freezing drizzle expected to continue through the night and sub freezing temperatures in place, the advisory was issued. Any shower activity has pushed off to the southeast with widespread drizzle continuing in the wake of the strong cold front that is now located over the far south. Cold air continues to push into the state but sub freezing air still is confined to the northern parts of the state and will have a difficult time getting into central sections tonight. I am still expecting some light accretion of ice across the north but impacts are still expected to be minimal and confined to elevated surfaces such as trees, bridges and overpasses. Of greater concern may be the fog than any freezing precipitation. Freezing drizzle will remain possible for the northern sites with liquid precipitation for the central and southern terminals.
The higher precip totals have been in a fairly tight gradient, here at our office in Morristown we have only measured one inch for our event total. The higher totals are starting to bleed over into the central valley though as moderate to locally heavy precip continues, radar estimates generally show one and a half inches up to 2 inches across the central valley. Chattanooga Airport, TN 55 67 45 56 / 100 90 50 50 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 49 67 43 54 / 100 90 50 50 Oak Ridge, TN 48 65 43 53 / 100 90 40 50 Tri Cities Airport, TN 49 66 43 51 / 100 100 70 60 NC.
Freezing drizzle will remain possible for the northern sites with liquid precipitation for the central and southern terminals.
High pressure aloft will return to the area tonight and remain through Sunday.
Two of the highest amounts were measured 3 miles south of Clarksville, with 2. Additional flooding will be possible, especially over southern and eastern Middle Tennessee tonight and Sunday, as a cold front moves ever-so-slowly southeastward. Temperatures late Sunday night will likely cool to near the freezing mark over northwest and north-central areas, north and west of Nashville, producing the possibility for some light freezing rain.
842 PM EST Sat Feb 10 2018 Evening soundings indicate a pronounced dry layer from H8-H5 associated with the mid/upper level ridge east of the state.
A trough of low pressure will move through the area this evening. Strong high pressure builds over the Great Basin with strong offshore flow developing on Sunday.
653 PM EST Sat Feb 10 2018 A cold front will continue to push slowly southeast. Meanwhile, a series of low pressure systems riding northeast along the front will lead to occasional chances for precipitation through Sunday night. With cooler air moving in behind the front, there is chance for a wintery mix of pcpn northwest of I-71.
Am a bit concerned though that the recent snows with clear skies will yield much cooler lows like we saw last night. The temperature forecast has big implications as cooler temperatures would allow for dangerously cold wind chills. Given the latest data, we feel that wind chills will remain warmer than minus 19 F, but will monitor closely. Otherwise dry conditions and slightly warmer temperatures are forecast for Sunday.
At the surface, high pressure was centered over the mid MO river valley with a cold front pushing south through east TX and central AR. So there is some confidence in the forecast for the higher accumulations tracking across the northern counties. So have highs remaining below freezing where the snow accumulations are expected. Think good insolation should help warm highs into the lower and middle 30s where snow amounts are less likely.
With the lowest level winds becoming southerly, have hoisted a Dense Fog Advisory for Coastal Glynn County with the areas that will be most susceptible to the lowered visibilities include: Saint Simons Island, Wesley Oaks, Glynn Haven, Sea Island, Wimberly on the Marsh and Jekyll Island. Overnight lows will be mild in the lower 60s.
249 PM PST Sat Feb 10 2018 Lighter winds Sunday and slightly cooler.
As with last night, temperature profiles indicate locally below freezing air near the surface across my far northern counties during the nighttime hours. Keeping a Winter Weather Advisory for patchy freezing rain through just after sunrise Sunday. For Sunday there is agreement in the system becoming better organized with a cold front settling south through the region during the afternoon and evening.
419 PM CST Sat Feb 10 2018 Areas of freezing drizzle continue across much of the area, and have spread back northwest into the Tulsa metro during the past hour or so. We have expanded the winter weather advisory to include all but the far northwest part of the forecast area given current trends, and the fact that west central Arkansas will fall below freezing later this evening. Freezing drizzle will begin to taper off from the west later tonight, but a band of light snow may move into the far northwest part of the forecast area late tonight as it weakens, with perhaps a light dusting of accumulation. Partial sunshine will return by Sunday afternoon, which will allow temperatures to warm above the freezing mark.
809 PM MST Sat Feb 10 2018 The upper level trough driving snow across the region continued to drift southeastward over southeast Utah and southwest Colorado this evening. Much of dynamics are slipping to the southern CWA along with the cold front which should keep some accumulating snow going over the southern mountains through late evening before this wave gets accelerated out by the next upstream system. This next system looks to be a Pacific storm merging with an Polar trough tomorrow night.
Abundant sunshine today has not really helped warm the surface air mass under a strong arctic high pressure with temperatures inly in the single digits. Otherwise fairly clear with high pressure shifting south.
Much of dynamics are slipping to the southern CWA along with the cold front which should keep some accumulating snow going over the southern mountains through late evening before this wave gets accelerated out by the next upstream system. This next system looks to be a Pacific storm merging with an Polar trough tomorrow night.
The upper trough currently moving into the central Great Plains will move across the region Sun AM.
Freezing drizzle has persisted across much of the area since about mid morning. Some light freezing rain or heavy freezing drizzle has mixed in with the lighter freezing drizzle for some ice accretion between 0. For tonight, will see similar conditions to what we've had during the day, however a better chance of freezing rain vs. There will still be a lag of temperatures cooling aloft, so much of the precipitation will be freezing drizzle or freezing rain.
With temperatures well below freezing, roadways will quickly become snow covered once again.
Surface winds will be light Southeast out to the East of a cold front and to the West and Northwest 10-15 knots in wake of the boundary. Any accumulation will be very light and mostly confined to elevated surfaces, including bridges and overpasses. Temps should warm above freezing Sunday morning, ending any ongoing travel impacts.
Temperatures around HBG should climb into the lower 70s.
940 PM EST Sat Feb 10 2018 A cold front will continue to push slowly southeast. Meanwhile, a series of low pressure systems riding northeast along the front will lead to occasional chances for precipitation through Sunday night. With cooler air moving in behind the front, there is chance for a wintery mix of pcpn northwest of I-71.
/Issued 419 PM CST Sat Feb 10 2018/ Areas of freezing drizzle continue across much of the area, and have spread back northwest into the Tulsa metro during the past hour or so. We have expanded the winter weather advisory to include all but the far northwest part of the forecast area given current trends, and the fact that west central Arkansas will fall below freezing later this evening. Freezing drizzle will begin to taper off from the west later tonight, but a band of light snow may move into the far northwest part of the forecast area late tonight as it weakens, with perhaps a light dusting of accumulation. Partial sunshine will return by Sunday afternoon, which will allow temperatures to warm above the freezing mark.
534 PM CST Sat Feb 10 2018 Focus remains on the winter weather we are experiencing this weekend, but there is an expectation of warmer weather this coming work week. That said, reports from surface observations show that freezing drizzle may still be the dominate precipitation type this afternoon across southern and central Missouri even when mixed with snow.
southeast Texas and the coastal waters ahead of a cold front that is projected into the coastal waters after sunrise. The cold front will push colder temperatures into the region by the late morning hours. As a result daytime highs are not projected to climb out of the low 60s.
Clear skies this evening will give way to some high clouds overnight as a weak ridge builds into the region.
421 PM MST Sat Feb 10 2018 Current surface analysis shows high pressure centered over northeast NE, with arctic boundary well south and west of the region.
238 PM PST Sat Feb 10 2018 A trough of low pressure will move through the area this evening. Strong high pressure builds over the Great Basin with strong offshore flow developing on Sunday.
403 PM CST Sat Feb 10 2018 Light shower activity over the southeastern forecast area leading an approaching cold front now moving across the northwestern forecast area.
919 PM CST Sat Feb 10 2018 Areas of freezing drizzle continue across much of eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas this evening per radar, surface observations and reports.
551 PM CST Sat Feb 10 2018 Cold front has pushed all the way down into TX with unseasonably cold air continuing to spill-in from the north. This has resulted in pockets of flurries and light freezing drizzle over far se KS, where it's still not cold enough to result in all snow. Models have remained very consistent in tracking this band generally north of I-70 this evening which is where the higher snow amounts should remain with 1-3 inches possible, with slightly higher amounts closer to the Nebraska border. CIGS & VSBYS would greatly improve late tonight/early Sun morning in a N-S manner as fairly strong high pressure spreads S/SE toward KS.
552 PM CST Sat Feb 10 2018 Nearby high pressure to our south will provide the Northland another mostly clear and cold night. Some cloud cover will spread in from the northwest overnight with an approaching mid/upper level trough. This trough will be associated with a Clipper, which will be shifting from northern Manitoba this evening to far northern Ontario tomorrow. Its Arctic cold front will pass through the Northland Sunday, and brisk conditions are expected in the afternoon.
Modest low level moisture will continue to be trapped underneath a broad mid level ridge extending across Texas and the Gulf of Mexico. Time heights continue to indicate a subtle elevated warm layer or subsidence layer between 700-500mb which will be enough to keep the sea breeze and streamer showers at bay with the going forecast keeping most of the low probabilities of convection along east of I69C/281. The mid level ridge will continue to provide warmer then normal temperatures and couple with elevated dew points, heat indices are likely to be well above normal.
556 PM MDT Mon Sep 18 2017 Latest water vapor loop was showing a fairly distinct upper level trof moving into the Pacific northwest. Further west, we may see a band of rain showers develop under the upper level trof and associated jet streak.
A low pressure system over the pacific northwest will remain nearly stationary tonight before drifting away toward the ne tomorrow.
Once the low clouds and fog lift, another very warm and humid day is in store for the area with afternoon temperatures well into the 80s. A broad longwave trough over the western U. and ridge centered over the east coast is the basic pattern at this time. The basic western trough/eastern ridge pattern will become more amplified toward the end of the week and through the weekend. With record high temperatures generally in the low 90s by the upcoming weekend. The ridge will also promote general subsidence over the area bringing generally dry weather.
A cold front will cross northern Utah tonight through Tuesday.
A series of storm systems will push inland to our north through the week resulting in cooler than average temperatures and breezy northerly winds.
A cold front moved through earlier in the evening and was situated well to our southeast. The showers will continue through Tuesday due to an expansive upper trough which extends across western Canada and the Northwestern U. Temperatures will be cooler on Tuesday with highs of 15-20 degrees normal.
1012 PM MDT Mon Sep 18 2017 A large trough was moving across the Pacific Northwest and spreading mid/high clouds toward the CWA this afternoon with widespread low-level warm advection and surface pressure falls across the northern high plains. This was fostering gusty south/southwest winds across the CWA, which will continue through tonight ahead of the incoming trough. On Tuesday a cold front will move across the CWA.
723 PM EDT Mon Sep 18 2017 A weak cold front located over Lake Erie will drift southeast across the region this evening. High pressure will build into the area overnight. The high will then dominate the weather the second half of the week. Weakening cold front will sag southward across the region this evening with a few showers possible Coverage will be scattered at best and mainly be located across the western half of northern Ohio. High pressure will ridge into the area behind the front. However there will not be much of an airmass change so a few showers may linger into Tuesday night as a weak trough persists. Warmer than seasonal averages through Tuesday night.
However, expect temperatures over all of the Mid-State to stabilize mainly in the upper 60s to lower 70s by midnight, and then slide on down to the lower and middle 60s by dawn. Surface and upper ridge have shifted some to the east, allowing an upper trough to amplify and push across Middle Tennessee on Tuesday.
Strong speed shear throughout the lower half of the troposphere along with strong directional shear in the near surface layer makes all modes of severe weather possible.
There is some model differences in regards to the surface wind/pressure pattern and especially the high temperatures. Guidance is warmer for the eastern portion but that may be a little cool. Temperatures fluctuate as a couple of rounds of cooler air filter into the region. An upper low pushes across southern Canada on Tuesday evening with a cold front extending south across the northern Plains into Colorado.
717 PM EDT Mon Sep 18 2017 High pressure will remain over the region this week resulting in mainly dry and mild weather during the next few days.
727 PM EDT Mon Sep 18 2017 A weak cold front will linger over north central Indiana and Ohio this evening keeping a slight chance for showers and an isolated thunderstorm in the forecast.
South wind gusts to 22 KTS possible at KSJT and KABI mid morning as lee trough becomes stronger. Scattered thunderstorms are affecting parts of the higher terrain out to our west. However, since these thunderstorms are mainly driven by diurnal processes, as well as elevated terrain effects, expect most of this activity to weaken as the sun sets, they move east off of the higher terrain, and the atmosphere stabilizes.
Warmer temperatures already seen mixing down over western and south central Kansas, and will be the main story for tomorrow as those temps move eastward.
Currently, the activity is sliding northeast along with the trough, leaving behind lingering cloud cover and cool temperatures today. This will set the stage for a bit of fog later tonight, thanks to the abundant ground moisture, but might also bring another round of scattered storms late tonight/early Tuesday morning as the nocturnal jet associated with the exiting trough points its nose at eastern Kansas.
Clouds associated with an approaching cold front are rapidly moving into northeast Montana. Hickford A cold front will push through tonight with scattered showers. Otherwise expect cooler temperatures with highs generally in the 60s.
Winds gusts of 20 to 23 KTS expected at KABI and KSJT mid morning, as a lee trough develops. South wind gusts to 22 KTS possible at KSJT and KABI mid morning as lee trough becomes stronger. Scattered thunderstorms are affecting parts of the higher terrain out to our west. However, since these thunderstorms are mainly driven by diurnal processes, as well as elevated terrain effects, expect most of this activity to weaken as the sun sets, they move east off of the higher terrain, and the atmosphere stabilizes.
Subjective 12Z upper- air analysis indicates west-northwesterly upper-level flow across the central US, with a few weak ripples through the flow and with ridging in the eastern US.
Overnight lows forecast in the L-M70s areawide, perhaps some U60s across normally cooler rural locales.
1135 PM EDT Mon Sep 18 2017 A persistent ridge of high pressure at the surface and aloft will maintain fair, warm and generally dry weather during the entire upcoming week, and likely through the weekend as well. Overnight weather will have a very familiar feel with persistent ridge of high pressure remaining in control. Tuesday will once again begin with the locally dense valley fog, burning off to a partly-mostly sunny afternoon as the upper ridge axis continues to reside right over central PA. For much of this period, a 500 hPa ridge will dominate our weather.
1100 PM CDT Mon Sep 18 2017 Showers and thunderstorms have developed in advance of the warm front and short wave. Tuesday looks to be dry as high pressure begins to build into the area. JPK Anomalous ridging is expected to continue to strengthen over the mid- Mississippi Valley and Great Lakes through the end of the work week.
Mins tomorrow night will be perhaps a touch warmer, but still mainly in the mid 60s as an upper short wave moves across the area accompanied by some mid to high level cloudiness.
/issued 355 PM CDT Mon Sep 18 2017/ Mid-afternoon sfc analysis shows high pressure centered over srn Appalachia remaining in control of our region with a light onshore low-level flow holding in place. Could see a little improvement by late in the week as weak ridging is progged to redevelop aloft. Light and mostly onshore flow should continue through the period with high pressure remaining anchored to our east or northeast.
Pacific cold front is expected to slide into the area on Wed which will bring slightly cooler air to much of the area, but still with highs a degree or two above normal. Additional upper energy will track out of northern Pacific and reinforce the trough over the northwest CONUS. Both ECMWF and GFS agree on a sharp upper trough anchored over the western CONUS to start this period, which will keep return flow and above normal temps in place over the Plains. Areas west of I-135 will have the best chance for some of the higher gusts.
The pattern aloft depicted subtle southwest flow ahead of an upper trough moving into British Columbia, while at the surface, a low pressure trough was deepening along the front range of the Rockies into the high plains region. Models indicate the potential for isolated convection overnight on the nose of the lowlevel jet which will be oriented to our southeast, so have kept the dry forecast going for our area with the better chances for this remaining to our east/south. The upper low in the Pacific Northwest translates into Alberta with the upper trough digging into the northern and central Rockies. Temperatures will be noticeably warmer, reaching the upper 80s to mid 90s for highs.
Quiet this evening as upper level ridging propagates across the forecast area. increasing moisture return ahead of developing lee trough is expected to produce low stratus advecting from Minnesota westward into the eastern and central Dakotas. However, with the strength of the synoptic system, severe weather can not be ruled out most anywhere along and east of the highway 83 corridor.
/issued 400 PM EDT Mon Sep 18 2017/ This unseasonable pattern continues with the influence of high pressure sitting over the Gulf of Mexico and the departing Hurricane Jose being the major synoptic players over much of the southeastern United States. As the high and Jose shift, winds will turn more easterly to northeasterly which will allow the sea breezes to make some progress inland. Conditions will gradually improve as Jose moves farther from the area and high pressure builds back into the region with light east/northeast flow.
20z sfc analysis shows weak high pressure in place over eastern Kentucky though it is not effective in suppressing a few showers now popping up over western parts of the Cumberland Valley. Plenty of sunshine for most of the area have sent temperatures up into the lower 80s. Meanwhile, dewpoints are holding in the low to mid 60s with the winds still light and variable. They all now are a bit more hearty with the energy that initially drifts through the weakening ridge this evening and then even more so on Tuesday afternoon and evening.
Its mainly speeds shear as not much turning is evident from the surface to the low level jet.
Highs from near 85 north to the lower 90s south. Temperatures at sunrise will range from the mid 50s along the Colorado border, to the lower 60s at Dodge City, to near 70 at Kiowa.
The drier airmass in place across the area will support slightly cooler temperatures tonight and more comfortable outdoor conditions with lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s areawide.
844 PM PDT Mon Sep 18 2017 A low pressure trough over the West this week will maintain the marine layer and seasonally cool weather well inland. As the trough deepens midweek, nocturnal marine clouds will push farther inland and become more persistent as westerly winds increase and become gusty over the mountains and deserts.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 67 88 67 85 / 0 20 10 30 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 65 85 64 84 / 10 20 10 20 Oak Ridge, TN 65 85 65 84 / 10 20 10 20 Tri Cities Airport, TN 59 82 60 83 / 0 20 10 20.
Easterly boundary layer flow bringing maritime air farther west toward the ridges has allowed for the blossoming of stratocumulus along the eastern slopes of the CWA tonight. Local dewpoints have been surging into the low to mid 60s across the area as a result. The wave responsible for this convection to our west will be rapidly weakening as it drives into the teeth of the resident high pressure over the area over the next day or so. Multi-model projections suggest some showers should wander into central Ohio by Tuesday afternoon, however east of there the ridge should hold sway fairly convincingly. With said moist boundary layer, while away from the high clouds that are advancing into Ohio, we have clear skies through sunrise outside of the foggy valley locations, once again destructive sunshine will result in abundant cumulus development.