Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
829 PM CDT Tue Oct 4 2022 Seasonable and dry weather sticks around through midweek before a strong cold front brings much cooler weather to the area later this week into the weekend. High pressure is centered over southern Lake Michigan this evening resulting in continued fair weather conditions across much of the Midwest including central Illinois. Temperatures as of 2 PM were sitting in the low to middle 70s. Lows tonight look to range from the low to middle 40s, though can't rule out a few upper 30s in the typical cool spots.
345 PM MDT Tue Oct 4 2022 Water vapor imagery this afternoon shows the slow moving upper low pivoting across the forecast area with an upper ridge axis further upstream along the west coast. These showers will taper off late this afternoon and evening with the loss of daytime mixing and subsidence on the backside of the upper low. While temperature advection will largely be neutral Wednesday, ample sunshine/diabatic heating will result in temperatures 5-10F warmer than today (Tuesday).
950 PM EDT Tue Oct 4 2022 High pressure remains over the region through at least Wednesday before weakening and departing to the east Wednesday night.
Overnight temperatures will range from the low 50s in northern parts of the area to low 60s in the southern portions of the area. /NP/ For tonight, RH values will climb back into the upper 90s as radiational cooling will help overnight temperatures drop into the low to the mid 50s. Areas north of Hwy 82 could see temperatures drop into the low 60s. Dry conditions will continue as we head into Wednesday with afternoon temperatures peaking around the low 80s.
523 PM MDT Tue Oct 4 2022 In general, a fairly quiet 24 to 48 hours ahead as a strong upper- level low departs to the east, leaving much of the central Rockies under the influence of dry northwesterly flow aloft on the eastern fringe of large scale ridging encompassing much of the western US. A few light rain showers, or perhaps weak thunderstorms will remain possible for areas mainly along and east of I-25 with some afternoon instability beneath the mid-level cold core of the aforementioned upper low, but fully expect to see any lingering activity diminish very quickly around sunset.
935 PM EDT Tue Oct 4 2022 A ridge of high pressure will continue to dictate the weather for the region through Wednesday and then move east during the evening.
730 PM EDT Tue Oct 4 2022 A ridge of high pressure will continue to dictate the weather for the region through Wednesday and then move east during the evening.
526 PM MDT Tue Oct 4 2022 The upper level low will continue to move through the Northern Plains through the short term bringing northwest flow above the forecast area. The cold front at the surface will continue to trek eastward with precipitation moving well out of the area this afternoon. An upper level low will slide down through Canada and into the Great Lakes region by this weekend.
622 PM CDT Tue Oct 4 2022 (This evening through Wednesday) An upper level ridge will remain over Texas through tomorrow, resulting in dry weather, with near to slightly above normal temperatures across the area.
High pressure remains over the region through at least Wednesday before weakening and departing to the east Wednesday night.
1010 PM EDT Tue Oct 4 2022 High pressure will prevail this week.
Two forecast challenges in the short term included timing/coverage of showers/embedded thunder tonight into early Wednesday morning, as well as timing/strength of the cold front forecast to sweep southward through the CWA Wednesday night. Rain showers with embedded thunder in a couple locations continue across the CWA under the forcing/lift influence of this broad upper level low pressure system slowly working east-southeast across South Dakota. Wednesday should eventually see some sunshine by afternoon, helping to nudge high temperatures up a few degrees warmer than today's high temperatures. Then, by early Wednesday evening, a strong cold front will be barreling southward through the CWA, with strong and blustery northerly winds likely accompanying it.
Current model guidance and sounding observations support potential mixing in the lower levels. This mixing of the lower levels will support dewpoint temperatures in the mid to upper 50s. Afternoon temperatures are forecasted to peak in the low 80s. /CRJ/ For tonight, RH values will climb back into the upper 90s as radiational cooling will help overnight temperatures drop into the low to the mid 50s. Areas north of Hwy 82 could see temperatures drop into the low 60s. Dry conditions will continue as we head into Wednesday with afternoon temperatures peaking around the low 80s.
Upper level ridging will build into the region for the remainder of the week.
635 PM CDT Tue Oct 4 2022 (Tonight through Wednesday night) An upper level trough over Arizona will drift east to New Mexico sending periods of cirrus clouds over our area while weak surface ridging will maintain dry lower levels. Remnant moisture from former eastern Pacific Hurricane Orlene will produce some echoes on radar this afternoon into early evening, however, the lower levels are way too dry for any rain to reach the surface.
730 PM EDT Tue Oct 4 2022 High pressure to our north will keep temperatures a bit cool through Tuesday.
Currently - The remnants of Ian continue to spin off the Mid Atlantic coast while a ridge is centered over the eastern United States. Short Term Update - The high cell over the eastern United States will begin to bubble southeastwards and off the coast of the southeastern United States through the overnight period. A ridge building southeastward from the eastern United States will modestly strengthen winds out of the northeast through the overnight period.
Cliff PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: Patchy fog across the region early this morning with lingering moisture as the upper low retreats to the east. Today through Wednesday afternoon, expect a ridge to move over the area bringing dry conditions and warmer temperatures. Wednesday night, a Canadian cold front pushes through the area.
737 PM EDT Tue Oct 4 2022 An upper low will remain near the Mid-Atlantic coast through Wednesday, maintaining a northerly breeze and scattered clouds over our area.
611 PM CDT Tue Oct 4 2022 (This evening through Wednesday Night) Weather conditions remain stagnant as ridging aloft dominates the region. Mostly clear skies and light winds will lead to a cooler night (at least slightly cooler than this morning) with lows from the mid 50s to upper 60s.
311 PM MDT Tue Oct 4 2022 In general, a fairly quiet 24 to 48 hours ahead as a strong upper- level low departs to the east, leaving much of the central Rockies under the influence of dry northwesterly flow aloft on the eastern fringe of large scale ridging encompassing much of the western US. A few light rain showers, or perhaps weak thunderstorms will remain possible for areas mainly along and east of I-25 with some afternoon instability beneath the mid-level cold core of the aforementioned upper low, but fully expect to see any lingering activity diminish very quickly around sunset.
725 PM EDT Tue Oct 4 2022 High pressure will gradually build over the Mid Atlantic during tonight into Wednesday.
(Rest of tonight) Another tranquil night in store for the Tennessee Valley as high pressure continues to build over the east CONUS, reinforcing a dry airmass over the area. Overnight lows will drop to the low to upper 40s across the area with light northerly winds.
136 AM EDT Wed Oct 5 2022 High pressure will prevail this week.
359 AM EDT Wed Oct 5 2022 A large high pressure area was still over the region this morning.
1221 AM CDT Wed Oct 5 2022 (This evening through Wednesday) An upper level ridge will remain over Texas through tomorrow, resulting in dry weather, with near to slightly above normal temperatures across the area.
For Td, went with a blend of the NBM, CONSShort, and HRRR, dropping dewpoints across the area into the upper 30s to low 40s resulting in widespread RH values hovering in the mid 20s, with isolated pockets in central Georgia in the low 20s. In tandem, another cool night on tap for broad swath of the area, with Min T reaching down into the mid to upper 40s, around 5 degrees cooler than seasonal avg.
An upper low over southern South Dakota continues to generate cyclonic flow over southeastern part of the state. The loss of diurnal heating and the southeastward trek of the low will cause the storms to weaken. The slow moving upper level closed low system continues to drop south and east.
(through Tonight) Patchy ground fog will be expected early this morning, mainly in more marshy areas, and near area lakes and waterways, where the cool air will lay over the relatively moist and warmer surface. High pressure will build south across the area through Tonight. The combination of the dry airmass that is in place, and the ridging overhead will lead to a bright sunny day Today, and clear skies Tonight. Highs Today will be below normal with readings rising into the lower 80s inland, and upper 70s coast.
1135 PM CDT Tue Oct 4 2022 (This evening through Wednesday Night) Weather conditions remain stagnant as ridging aloft dominates the region. Mostly clear skies and light winds will lead to a cooler night (at least slightly cooler than this morning) with lows from the mid 50s to upper 60s.
/Issued 1140 PM CDT Tue Oct 4 2022/ /Tonight through Wednesday/ Weak low level warm air advection and ridging aloft will result in slightly warmer temperatures tonight and Wednesday with lows from the mid 50s to the lower 60s and highs from the mid 80s to the lower 90s. Moisture associated with an upper trough across the Southern Rockies and High Plains will send a few high clouds our way on Wednesday but no precipitation.
On Wednesday, the low will push eastward into New Mexico bringing a dry northerly flow that will lead to a downtrend in shower and storm activity across most of the area. beginning Thursday, the low slow slides southwestward and becomes stationary near the northern Gulf of California.
156 AM MDT Wed Oct 5 2022 The upper level low will continue to move through the Northern Plains through the short term bringing northwest flow above the forecast area. The cold front at the surface will continue to trek eastward with precipitation moving well out of the area this afternoon.
A trough moves through late Wednesday night and through Thursday morning ahead of a cold front dropping in from the upper Great Lakes. This trough will bring low rain chances to western Indiana just before dawn, with rain chances diminishing quickly in the eastern half of the state as the trough weakens. The cold front moves from northwest to southeast late in the day Thursday. There will be low chances for rain this this cold front. Breezy and cooler Thursday night with lake effect rain showers developing.
400 AM EDT Wed Oct 5 2022 High pressure is building in across the area from the north with the cold front in place across the FL Straits.
326 AM CDT Wed Oct 5 2022 The well advertised Arctic cold frontal boundary finally passes through the forecast area today and into the evening. Much colder air will filter into the region behind this frontal boundary, which may lead to widespread freezing temperatures Wednesday morning, especially in the northern half of the forecast area. Lows tonight will probably be within a few degrees of freezing with areas in the northern half of the state more likely to see a freeze. For one, trailing high pressure won't quite have settled in, so breezy winds should persist tonight.
207 AM EDT Wed Oct 5 2022 A warmer and sunnier Wednesday and Thursday is on tap.
This is due to warm air advection ahead of a larger cold front that will move through Thursday night. Jaja A longwave trough digging through Canada will push into the Great Lakes Thursday, driving a potent cold front through the region Thursday evening into night.
252 AM CDT Wed Oct 5 2022 (Issued 252 AM CDT Wed Oct 5 2022) Today through Thursday: Clouds are increasing across the area early this morning, ahead of an upper level low located near Sioux Falls. This low will rotate eastward today, reaching northern Illinois by this evening, and will weaken as it continues into Indiana Thursday morning. 00Z upper air observations and forecast soundings confirm that the low levels are very dry ahead of this feature, so it's doubtful that much in the way of precipitation is going to make it to the ground as it moves through. Despite the increasing clouds, temperatures today will again reach the low 70s. Lows tonight will fall into the low 50s. A strong cold front is expected to pass through the area during the day on Thursday.
1201 AM EDT Wed Oct 5 2022 Aviation - Low chance for some thunderstorms Thursday Models are showing the cold front dropping south southeastward through the CWA during the day.
1224 AM CDT Wed Oct 5 2022 (Tonight through Wednesday night) An upper level trough over Arizona will drift east to New Mexico sending periods of cirrus clouds over our area while weak surface ridging will maintain dry lower levels. Remnant moisture from former eastern Pacific Hurricane Orlene will produce some echoes on radar this afternoon into early evening, however, the lower levels are way too dry for any rain to reach the surface.
(Today through Thursday) A developing cut off upper level low across New Mexico and Arizona today will move southwest into Sonora and Baja California Thursday, while weak downstream ridging develops across South Central Texas. Dry low levels and the influence of the weak ridge will continue dry conditions across the region.
Warm and dry weather pattern under high pressure will continue through the remainder of the week.
1022 PM MDT Tue Oct 4 2022 In general, a fairly quiet 24 to 48 hours ahead as a strong upper- level low departs to the east, leaving much of the central Rockies under the influence of dry northwesterly flow aloft on the eastern fringe of large scale ridging encompassing much of the western US. A few light rain showers, or perhaps weak thunderstorms will remain possible for areas mainly along and east of I-25 with some afternoon instability beneath the mid-level cold core of the aforementioned upper low, but fully expect to see any lingering activity diminish very quickly around sunset.
1238 AM EDT Wed Oct 5 2022 An upper low will remain near the Mid-Atlantic coast through Wednesday, maintaining a northerly breeze and scattered clouds over our area.
Highs this afternoon will be in the low to mid-80s.
These southwest zones will be on the northeast periphery of forcing for ascent, associated with a new weak closed cyclone developing over New Mexico through the afternoon. The expected cold front is shown by 00z NAM to be knocking on the door of the northeast zones at 7 pm Thursday.
355 AM CDT Wed Oct 5 2022 KEY MESSAGES: - Warm (relative to October) again today before a cold front passes overnight tonight. Looking ahead for today, the low pressure system will continue to create the possibility for light rain. Westerly winds during the day today will become gusty northerly winds by early Thursday morning as the upper level trough progresses eastward.
1134 PM MDT Tue Oct 4 2022 The upper level low will continue to move through the Northern Plains through the short term bringing northwest flow above the forecast area. The cold front at the surface will continue to trek eastward with precipitation moving well out of the area this afternoon. An upper level low will slide down through Canada and into the Great Lakes region by this weekend. Towards the surface, mostly clear skies and dry conditions are expected through Thursday as high pressure will remain the dominate feature. A strong cold front is then progged to move through the area Thursday night ushering in much colder air.
There is a lot of marine stratus over the coastal waters, along the coast, in the coastal valleys, and in the lower Umpqua Basin. A weak omega block is in place over the area with the ridge axis just inland from the coast.
1154 PM CDT Tue Oct 4 2022 Seasonable and dry weather sticks around through midweek before a strong cold front brings much cooler weather to the area later this week into the weekend. High pressure is centered over southern Lake Michigan this evening resulting in continued fair weather conditions across much of the Midwest including central Illinois. Temperatures as of 2 PM were sitting in the low to middle 70s. Lows tonight look to range from the low to middle 40s, though can't rule out a few upper 30s in the typical cool spots.
1158 PM CDT Tue Oct 4 2022 (This afternoon through Wednesday night) An upper level trough is centered over South Dakota and extends southwest over Arizona and New Mexico. The northward extension of the trough will begin to break away from the southern extension of the trough on Wednesday. Upper lift will increase across the area today due to the portion of the upper trough to the west. The southern portion of the upper trough moves over New Mexico on Wednesday which will allow for upper lift to continue to increase over the area. High temperatures on Wednesday will be similar or slight cooler than those today. Low temperatures Wednesday night will be similar or slightly cooler than tonight.
1151 PM CDT Tue Oct 4 2022 Generally dry but gradually warmer weather expected tonight and through the next few days as the airmass modifies ahead of the next cold front. Expect another somewhat cool night, although lows could be a few degrees warmer than last night with temperatures ranging from the upper 50s to lower 60s. 24 (This evening through Wednesday) Mid-afternoon sfc analysis shows high pressure centered over the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley ridging swwd through the ArkLaTex to the wrn Gulf, maintaining a light, mainly nerly low-level flow across the forecast area.
Dry with near to slightly above normal temperatures expected through at least Wednesday with high pressure just to our west. A broad area of low pressure develops over southern Arizona and northwest Mexico late week, and with easterly flow, moisture may moisture push back westward for slight chance of showers and thunderstorms over northwest Arizona and southeast California, mainly this weekend. Mostly clear skies this morning as the region lies under a northerly flow between a trough over the southern Rockies and a ridge of high pressure over California. Feature will have no appreciable impact on the area other than produce some afternoon cumulus over the higher terrain today.
(Today through Thursday) This AM, persistent broad E Conus surface ridging will continue through today. A cold front extends from MN SSWWD into the TX Panhandle. Also, we will see some scattered cirrus in the SRN part of the state around the base of the E Conus upper low. This upper low should weaken and push NEWD into the Atlantic later today.
1044 PM CDT Tue Oct 4 2022 (Rest of tonight) Another tranquil night in store for the Tennessee Valley as high pressure continues to build over the east CONUS, reinforcing a dry airmass over the area. Overnight lows will drop to the low to upper 40s across the area with light northerly winds.
Mid-level water vapor shows that the low has moved into far SE AZ with other minor embedded shrtwv trofs within the larger background trof across nrn MX and srn New Mexico. By this afternoon the mid-level trof axis does look to be a little farther e than what was indicated on models last night and precip early this morning is more representative of what the global models showed last night for this morning than the CAMs depicted. Little change in temps today, except cooler for the wrn areas including most of SE NM with cloudy skies. On Thu the mid-level trof will develop swwd into the Baja region favoring the wrn CWFA for isold-sct PoPs.
(Wednesday through Thursday) As a large upper level ridge drifts eastward over the eastern CONUS, zonal flow aloft will hold conditions steady through Wednesday, followed by the remaining upper level trough comprising the Omega block which defined the weather pattern early this week. With an axis over the Chicagoland region and western Great Lakes, said trough will not be responsible for bringing any precip to the ArkLaTex (and we're just as shocked as anyone by that), while northeasterly flow rebuilds aloft, steering a dry front into the Four State Region.
1106 PM CDT Tue Oct 4 2022 A deep, closed low over the Mid-Atlantic States will lift slowly northeast over the next 24 hours with another compact wave moving eastward across the Northern Plains. A large surface anticyclone over the Great Lakes and OH Valley is providing light winds, dry air, and clear skies, promoting ideal radiational cooling conditions across the region.
Cumulus clouds have been bubbling for a few hours over the high country, where a few showers and an isolated thunderstorm look likely to form by mid to late afternoon. Some of these will drift off the high terrain into parts of the urban corridor and plains late afternoon and through the evening, and could linger locally through midnight or even slightly after. Tonight will be chilly across the high mountain valleys with clearer skies relative to previous nights, with lows into the mid 20's for Middle and North Parks, and patchy fog will be likely once again for these areas. Across the lower elevations, lows will remain in the 40's. The low pressure trough shifts farther east Wednesday as high pressure expands to our west. A broad upper level low pressure trough will cover the Central and Eastern U.
The weak upper ridging will continue to control our weather, with mainly clear skies, near to slightly warmer than normal temperatures, and light east to southeasterly winds.
1217 AM CDT Wed Oct 5 2022 (This evening through Thursday) Stable high pressure across the mid South will bring a continuation of dry conditions with weak winds to the forecast area through the period. Northeasterly winds at the surface on Wednesday will become southerly on Thursday as a strong area of low pressure moves eastward across the Dakotas into the upper midwest.
Today, we remain under northerly flow with high pressure just to our west. Overnight temperatures will be a few degrees warmer so no threat of patchy frost as temps will be in the low to mid 40s.
352 AM EDT Wed Oct 5 2022 High pressure will prevail this week.
242 AM MDT Wed Oct 5 2022 The upper low was located over southeast SD with its attendant trough axis into the central High Plains. Drier north-northwest flow aloft prevailed between the trough and stout upper ridge in the western CONUS. The model consensus progs the upper low and trough to progress east-southeast into the Midwest through Thursday.
244 AM MDT Wed Oct 5 2022 High pressure over the region will bring warm and dry conditions to the area today. A cold front then drops into the region from the north and east tonight into Thursday, bringing breezy north to northeasterly winds, much cooler temperatures, and some rain showers. High temperatures mainly in the 70s can be expected across the area today, before dropping a good 10 to 20 degrees on Thursday behind the cold front. Highs will range from the lower 50s to lower 60s on Thursday, coolest across the east.
A weak backdoor cold front should push into northern Wyoming by around sunrise Thursday, and push southward to the Continental Divide by mid to late afternoon. Highs across the north Thursday will be cooler by a few degrees, but elsewhere highs look to be similar to Wednesday.
Cooler temperatures are still expected late this week with a cold front moving through Thursday night.
221 AM MDT Wed Oct 5 2022 Upper ridge backs to the west today turning the flow aloft over Montana to the NW. This will allow a cold front to move into the area during the day today from the north. There will be a chance of showers tonight behind the cold front as colder air moves in. Highs on Thursday will be 15 to 20 degrees colder in most areas as high pressure moves in and clear skies during the day.