Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Therefore will will continue the higher POPS over west central and central Missouri through Tuesday afternoon, with much lower POPS over northern Missouri. Highs on Tuesday may only reach the middle 70s as a cooler northern Plains airmass spreads into the region.
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR THE UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS CONTINUES TO PROGRESS EASTWARD AND WEAKEN. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. UPPER HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY AS THE RIDGE BUILDS. THE BUILDING RIDGE WILL ALSO LEAD TO HIGHER TEMPS WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S ON TUESDAY.
THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THIS MORNING WILL BE WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA BY TONIGHT WITH CONTINUED NORTHERLY WINDS. WINDS SHIFT TO MORE OF AN EASTERLY DIRECTION TOMORROW AS A DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE TREKS EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TOMORROW WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO UPPER 70S ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS.
TEMPERATURES THERE WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN REST OF THE AREA ON TUE-WED. -HOWERTON MODEST CONFIDENCE IN THIS PERIOD AS RIDGE BUILDS WEST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE WILL PROVIDE SUBSIDENCE OVER THE DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. ENOUGH MOISTURE HAS ALLOWED SOME SOME SHOWERS TO LINGER OVER THE LOWER TEXAS GULF WATERS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. CURRENT BRO RADAR SHOWS THAT THE SHOWERS HAVE DIMINISHED OVER THE LOWER TEXAS GULF WATERS BUT VERY ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE OVER THE TAMAULIPAS COASTAL WATERS. HIGH TEMPERATURES TUE WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 90S NEAR THE COAST TO APPROACHING THE TRIPLE DIGITS OUT WEST.
THE BOUNDARY WILL PASS THROUGH THE ENTIRE AREA BY LATER THIS EVENING WITH COOLER AND DRIER CANADIAN AIRMASS PUSHING INTO THE STATE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER OVERNIGHT AS DEWPOINTS DROP INTO THE UPPER 40S TO 50S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
THE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE SLOW PROGRESS EAST AND SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT EDGES INTO OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES TOWARDS MORNING. COLD FRONT TO PUSH SE TOWARD I-55 BY 12Z/TUE WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM NW TO SE DURING THE EVENING OVER CENTRAL IL AND INTO SOUTHEAST IL LATER TONIGHT INTO TUE. LOWS TONIGHT RANGE FROM MID 60S NW OF THE IL RIVER TO THE LOWER 70S SE OF I-55 WHICH STAYS IN WARM SECTOR THROUGH TONIGHT.
927 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015 A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST OUT OF THE AREA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE TUESDAY.
BROKEN VFR CEILING AROUND 4-7KFT ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA IN A NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN BEHIND AN EXITING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA.
1223 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015 UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN STALLS ACROSS THE REGION. A COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO APPROACH THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
AN AREA OF HI PRES IS FCST TO BUILD INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON TUE AND BRING COOLER/LESS HUMID AIR TO NE WI. TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK. AND A COOL AIRMASS OVERHEAD OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE FORECAST TO FALL INTO THE LOW 40S ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. HOWEVER GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THESE VALUES.
832 PM PDT MON JUL 6 2015 COOLER THIS WEEK WITH DAILY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN STALLS ACROSS THE REGION. A WEAKENING UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO FILL OVERHEAD AND EVER-SO- SLOWLY LIFT NORTHEASTWARD. WEAK NORTHEASTERLY FLOW HAS ALLOWED FOR A RATHER STATIONARY BAND OF CONVERGENCE IN THE LOW LEVELS THAT HAS FORCED RATHER CONTINUOUS CONVECTIVE INITIATION OVER EASTERN OHIO THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST DURING THE DAY.
SURFACE MAP AT 01Z SHOW HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED TO OUR SOUTHEAST WITH A COLD FRONT FAR OFF TO THE NW AND A TYPICALLY WARM, MOIST AIR MASS SETTLED OVER MIDDLE TENNESSEE.
HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM INTO THE STATE FROM A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX OVER KANSAS AND MISSOURI ALONG A COLD FRONT.
703 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND AN INLAND TROUGH WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEK.
MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES HAVE PERSISTED WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S TO THE LOWER 70S. NICE DAY ON TAP FOR MUCH OF THE TRI STATE REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE STILL PROVIDING COOLER AIR ON AN EASTERLY FETCH.
Late this afternoon, satellite imagery indicated cu to our west trying to grow upscale but largely being inhibited by ridging over the Ohio Valley. Still can't rule out a stray shower/storm along and west of I-65 this evening as peak instability is reached and the ridge continues to gradually shift east, thus, will continue 20% precip chances. A cold front will approach the area tonight and tomorrow. Lows Tues night should range through the upper 60s and lower 70s and may be tricky depending on how far SE the cold front makes it.
SO UPDRAFTS COULD BE SIGNIFICANT IN THIS HIGHLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT.
MOSTLY SUNNY AND COOL DAY EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING THE AREA. ALONG WITH COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY.
THE COOLER AND FRESHER AIR SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING. AND WITH GENERALLY FAIR SKIES ALOFT AND A SOMEWHAT DRIER AND COOLER AIRMASS IN PLACE.
704 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015 00Z TAF CYCLE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE OR JUST SOUTH OF THE PANHANDLES WILL ALLOW FOR CONVECTION TO CONTINUE SPREADING NORTH ACROSS ALL THREE TAF SITES THROUGH 12Z TO 16Z TUESDAY. COLD FRONT STRETCHED FROM HRX TO JUST SOUTH OF AMA TO PPA TO HHF AT 2 PM. THE FORCING ALONG THIS FRONT ALONG WITH UPPER LEVEL FORCING FROM A MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL HELP TO PRODUCE THE FIRST WAVE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. BY LATE THIS EVENING ANOTHER WAVE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST OUT OF NEW MEXICO AND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING EAST FROM NEW MEXICO. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER ON TUESDAY.
RAIN CHANCES HAVE ENDED WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME INSTABILITY AS AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST OF THE REGION. /22/ SYNOPTIC PATTERN EARLY THIS WORK WEEK LOOKS TO GRADUALLY BE ON THE TREND TO MORE SUBTROPICAL RIDGING AND WARMER TEMPERATURES. IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGING/SUBSIDENCE MOVING IN FROM THE E AND MID-LEVEL DRYING MAY KEEP THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY LOW. AS THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ERN CONUS GRADUALLY EJECTS TO THE NE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW.
IMPROVED FLIGHT WEATHER FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH LESS CONVECTION AROUND THANKS TO THE DEPARTED UPPER LOW.
1040 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015 SKIES ARE PARTLY CLOUDY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S ALONG WITH DEWPOINT READINGS HOLDING IN THE UPPER 70S. THE SEMI-PERMANENT WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE LIES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE SUNSHINE STATE. A LIGHT EAST WIND WILL ALLOW SOME INTERIOR COMMUNITIES TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 70S BUT WITH MOST ISLAND LOCATIONS REMAINING IN THE LOWER 80S. WITH THE WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE AXIS DRAPED ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SLIGHTLY ERODED.
A COLD FRONT EXTENDED ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA. LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL TRENDS REFLECT A FASTER PROGRESSION OF THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE HIGHEST QPF THROUGH TONIGHT MAY BE FOCUSED SOUTH OF THESE AREAS. WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL WORK INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH IN THE AFTERNOON BRINGING A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL AS ADDITIONAL SMOKE FROM CANADIAN WILDFIRES.
THIS HAS ALLOWED A SURFACE COLD FRONT TO PUSH SOUTHEAST FROM THE TEXAS OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES THROUGH CENTRAL KANSAS INTO IOWA AND MINNESOTA. DAYTIME HEATING AND INSTABILITY ALONG/NEAR THE COLD FRONT HAS AIDED IN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WITH THE HIGHEST QPF SIGNAL NEAR THE OKLAHOMA KANSAS BORDER. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN COMMON OVER NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE/VORT MAX DEVELOPS TO THE SOUTHWEST AND MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG THE STALLED FRONT INTO THE REGION. DEPENDING ON THE EXACT LOCATION OF WHERE THIS LOW/VORT MAX SETS UP WILL DEPEND ON THE LOCATION OF THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL AXIS.
940 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND BEGIN TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT TO SEE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN CLOUDS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY PUSHING THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE STRETCHED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WITH WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE TRAVELING ALONG IT.
LOWS ARE ON TRACK TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 60S NORTH AND UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 SOUTH.
1222 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT. A RETURN FLOW BEHIND THE HIGH WILL TRANSPORT WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR INTO THE AREA TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MIDWEEK.
An upper level flat ridge is currently situated over the southern states with a short wave trough over the Appalachians. At the surface, a cold front extended from northern Missouri through south central Kansas into the Texas panhandle. The cold front will make its way southeastward this evening with the front situated along the I-44 corridor by 12z on Tuesday.
LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOWER 70S. STEERING FLOW LOOKS WEAKER WHICH SHOULD FAVOR THE HIGHEST AFTERNOON STORM CHANCES ACROSS INTERIOR TERMINALS IN THE AFTN. SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND THE ATLC RIDGE MAY INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT.
737 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015 A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY.
A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDED JUST NORTH OF A LINE FROM KAMA /AMARILLO TEXAS/ TO KWDG /ENID OKLAHOMA/ MAY SINK SOUTHEAST OF A KOKC /OKLAHOMA CITY/ TO KSPS /WICHITA FALLS/ TO KMAF /MIDLAND/ LINE TUESDAY BEFORE STALLING.
AN UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WILL LIFT AWAY FROM THE REGION ON TUESDAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. THIS BAND OF CONVECTION OCCURRING ALONG A WEAK 850-700MB TROUGH WITH SOME ADDITIONAL SUPPORT ALOFT FROM A VORT AXIS LIFTING N-NE ACROSS WESTERN NC. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE ON TUESDAY SHOULD AGAIN BE LIMITED AS THE UPPER TROUGH LIFTS NORTH SOMEWHAT AND THE AIR MASS DRIES OUT WITH PW VALUES DROPPING 0. -BLAES GRADUAL WESTWARD REGRESSION OF SUBTROPICAL RIDGING WILL LIFT THE WESTERLIES AND PERSISTENT FRONTAL ZONE NORTH OF THE AREA IN THE MIDWEEK.
STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN SUPPRESSED ANY CONVECTION TODAY. UPPER TROF EXTENDS FROM OHIO TO FLORIDA. SURFACE AND UPPER RIDGING REMAIN PRETTY MUCH IN PLACE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK.
1144 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015 SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS A BROAD AREA OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN WISCONSIN WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT FROM NORTHEAST IOWA INTO SOUTHWEST IOWA. HIGH PRESSURE IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL START TO BUILD IN.
1036 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015 A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEK. A BROAD UPPER LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN LATE IN THE WEEK. A MEAN MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN THIS EVENING. ONCE AGAIN THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD FIRE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN BY EARLY AFTERNOON BUT SPREAD INTO ADJACENT VALLEY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
724 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015 UPDATED SKY COVER THIS EVENING AS LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A DECK OF MID LEVEL CEILINGS ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT WAVE/SECONDARY COLD FRONT RESIDING OVER NORTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA. THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK STARTS OUT RATHER QUIET WITH HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING SOUTH OF THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL MAINLY INTO THE LOWER 50S TONIGHT AND HIGHS TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE COOL LOWER 70S.
SURFACE DEW POINTS ARE IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 70S.
856 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE TONIGHT. A RETURN FLOW BEHIND THE HIGH WILL TRANSPORT WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR INTO THE AREA TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MIDWEEK.
1224 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND AN INLAND TROUGH WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEK. SFC TROF RMNS OVER THE OHIO/TN VALLEY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE ALLOWING FOR A PERSISTENT MOIST S-SW FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT LOW TEMPS TO RANGE IN THE LOW/MID 70S INLAND AND MID/UPPER 70S ALONG THE COAST.
804 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND TUESDAY.
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS. WITH DRY AIR FILTERING ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE TROUGH.
THICK STRATUS HAS PREVENTED HEATING OF THE LOWER ATM SO CONVECTION ON THE PLAINS WILL BE HARD TO INITIATE. LOWS TONIGHT WILL DIP INTO THE LOWER 50S FOR THE PLAINS AND LOWER 40S FOR THE MOUNTAINS. LOWER CEILINGS WILL REMAIN OVER THE FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAINS WITH LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. AFTER THE DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH SE FLOW COULD AID IN DENVER CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE SETTING UP OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U. THE UPPER HIGH IS GOING TO RETROGRADE AND ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER COLORADO AND THE GREAT BASIN.
THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA THIS AFTN WITH ZONAL FLOW CHANGING TO SLIGHT RIDGING ALOFT. SYNOPTIC SCALE SUBSIDENCE COMBINED WITH SOMEWHAT COOLER THAN EXPECTED TEMPERATURES IS KEEPING CONVECTIVE SHOWERS FROM DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK THETA-E RIDGE WILL DEVELOP MODEST INSTABILITY DURING THE AFTERNOON SO WILL KEEP THE CHANCE POPS. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN AVERAGE.
654 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015 SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS A BROAD AREA OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN WISCONSIN WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT FROM NORTHEAST IOWA INTO SOUTHWEST IOWA. HIGH PRESSURE IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL START TO BUILD IN.
1006 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015 MARINE SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THE RAIN WILL COME TO AN END TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT SLIPS OFF TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.
1032 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND TUESDAY.
FAIR WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH FLAT MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE OVER THE REGION. COMBINATION OF THE DRIER AIR AND FLAT MID LEVEL RIDGING SHOULD KEEP DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT.
821 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015 UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA WILL EXIT TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT. A SLOWING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY THEN STALL ACROSS SOUTHERN OHIO TUESDAY NIGHT.
A COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED TSRA EXTENDED FROM BETWEEN KPNC AND KICT TO KWWR. /ISSUED 334 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015/ A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA TONIGHT. AND WARM MOIST AIR IS FORCED NORTH OVER THE COOLER AIR NEAR THE SURFACE.
A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE FROM THE ATLANTIC WILL START TO BACK BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U. AS A COLD FRONT DRAPES ITSELF FROM SW TEXAS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. WE WILL AVOID MUCH OF THE RAINFALL WITH THIS FRONT AS IT STALLS BUT WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND PRE FRONTAL TROUGHS EXTENDING FROM IT.
935 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015 RIDGE AXIS REMAINED ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL FLORIDA TODAY WITH SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW NORTH OF IT HELPING TO DRIVE THE CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ZONES INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ON TUESDAY THE RIDGE AXIS IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT NORTH SLIGHTLY INTO THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA WITH A MORE EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA AND RATHER LIGHT WINDS NORTH.
951 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015 ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL WITH AN INLAND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LINGERING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A REMNANT UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL WEAKEN ACROSS THE SC MIDLANDS AND A BROAD UPPER RIDGE WILL REBUILD. IN THE LOWER LEVELS A STEADY SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE. SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S AND TEMPS IN THE LOWER 90S WILL YIELD 1500-2000 J/KG CAPES.
716 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND BEGIN TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS EXTREME EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA WILL TAPER OFF THIS EVENING AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE EAST. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE STRETCHED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WITH WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE TRAVELING ALONG IT.
Prevailing winds will be from the south tonight into the day Tuesday, with a weak cold frontal passage possible at KABI by Tuesday evening. /ISSUED 354 PM CDT Mon Jul 6 2015/ (Tonight and Tomorrow) The upper level ridge will flatten over the area tonight as will the flow aloft over the forecast area. A weak cold front now moving south through the Panhandle will be entering our northwestern CWA around daybreak tomorrow. Surface convergence along the cold front tonight, aided by a 40+ kt LLJ, will increase the chance of convective activity over the northern and western CWA. Look for morning lows in the lower 70s and afternoon highs in the lower 80s in the Big Country to the mid and upper 80s elsewhere.
RADARS AND STLT QUIET AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES IN FROM THE NORTHEASTERN GULF. /ISSUED 248 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015/ VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA WITH RELATIVELY DRIER AIRMASS INDICATED THROUGH THE COLUMN VERSUS THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS.
A BREEZY WIND SHIFT FROM THE NORTH WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY A COLD FRONT.
THE EXCEPTION MAY BE IN THE MOUNTAIN AREAS WHICH ARE RUNNING A DEGREE OR SO COOLER.
1031 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND AN INLAND TROUGH WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEK. LATEST MESO ANALYSIS IS SHOWING AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS OVER THE OHIO/TENN VALLEY. MEANWHILE HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE. EXPECT LOW TEMPS TO RANGE IN THE LOW/MID 70S INLAND AND MID/UPPER 70S ALONG THE COAST.
1200 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015 UPDATED SKY COVER THIS EVENING AS LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A DECK OF MID LEVEL CEILINGS ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT WAVE/SECONDARY COLD FRONT RESIDING OVER NORTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA. THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK STARTS OUT RATHER QUIET WITH HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING SOUTH OF THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT.
THE UPPER PATTERN IS DEFINED BY AN UPPER LOW SITUATED OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST AND A BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO. THE STRONGER SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW NOT ONLY IMPORTED DRIER AIR INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST LIMITING COVERAGE.
715 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015 A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY.
1016 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015 UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA WILL EXIT TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY THEN STALL ACROSS SOUTHERN OHIO TUESDAY NIGHT.
COMBINATION OF THE DRIER AIR AND FLAT MID LEVEL RIDGING SHOULD KEEP DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT.
THE COMBINATION OF HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT IN THE ATMOSPHERE AND A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL INSTIGATE NUMEROUS SH/TS. WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL WILL IMPACT CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO THROUGH TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO USHER IN WARMER AIR. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE NICELY AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 80S NORTH.
/ISSUED 402 AM CDT SAT SEP 12 2015/ NORTHWEST FLOW REMAINS OVER THE PANHANDLES AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE WEST COAST AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS SOUTH OVER THE GREAT LAKES. LEESIDE TROUGHING WILL BEGIN FORMING TODAY. CHANCES WOULD FAVOR MORE OF THE EASTERN PANHANDLES ON SUNDAY NIGHT AS LEE TROUGHING STRENGTHENS.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD DUE TO DRIER AIR FILTERING INTO THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT. MODELS PROG ADDITIONAL PRECIP ACROSS THE SRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA AND OVER THE WATERS THIS MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT. DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS WILL BE MORE NOTICEABLE TONIGHT WITH BETTER RADIATIONAL COOLING COMBINED WITH SOME WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION.
THIS WEEKEND WILL BE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TAKING OVER THE FORECAST. THE RIDGE WILL BE MOST PROMINENT ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO EASILY APPROACH THE 90S IN THE PLAINS. LEE-SIDE TROUGH SHOULD DEVELOP LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD ALLOW WINDS TO INCREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. UPSTREAM TROUGH BEGINS BREAKING DOWN THE RIDGE SATURDAY EVENING AND HEIGHTS WILL STEADILY FALL OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. STAYED A LITTLE WARMER THAN THE GUIDANCE WITH DOWNSLOPE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
621 AM CDT SAT SEP 12 2015 QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES TODAY AS COOL HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS OVERHEAD. MIXING TO ABOUT 900 MB SUNDAY SHOULD BRING HIGHS ABOUT 10 DEGREES WARMER OVER TODAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING ANOTHER DAY OF WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS TO THE AREA TODAY.
1109 AM EDT SAT SEP 12 2015 AS A COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. ITS LEADING WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD EAST FOR THE NEW WEEK. VIA DEEP LAYER WARM AIR AND MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE LOW APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. AND ALSO ITS LEADING WARM FRONT. A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS FCST TO RIDE ALONG THE WARM FRONT. A CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE WEST. AS THE UPPER LOW PASSES TO THE NORTH ON MON. DRIER WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK AS HIGH PRES AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE MIDWEST BUILD EAST AND WILL BECOME ENTRENCHED ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
654 AM CDT SAT SEP 12 2015 THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS WAS INDICATING RIDGE COMPLEX DUMPING DOWN WITH IT/S LEE SIDE PRESSURE GRADIENT STILL MOVING ACRS THE WESTERN GRT LKS INTO SOUTHERN MS RVR VALLEY. THIS FEATURE EMBEDDED IN A DEEP L/W TROF THAT HAS AN AXIS FROM THE EASTERN HUDSON BAY REGION. IF SKIES CAN REMAIN REASONABLY CLEAR AND CIRRUS STREAK DUMPING DOWN WITH UPPER JET ENERGY INTO THE TROF BASE CAN HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE TONIGHT OR SUNDAY MORNING.
EARLY IN THE NEW WEEK THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT EASTWARD AND REESTABLISH A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW OF WARMER MOISTURE LAIDEN AIR.
1204 PM EDT SAT SEP 12 2015 AN UPPER TROUGH WILL KEEP US IN A COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND.
WITH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. WE WILL BEGIN TO SEE A WARMUP BEGIN IN EARNEST ON SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST AND BREEZY SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS.
Deep upper trough over the Great Lakes/Mississippi Valley will amplify further as a compact PV max near the Quad Cities dives down into its base. In the mid lvl ageostrophic convergent region on the trough's back side. a large surface anticyclone resides over the Great Plains. The upper trough to our east will shift east and lift out.