Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
716 PM CDT Sun Sep 24 2017 Widely scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue to pop up this afternoon ahead of the cold front over the eastern Dakotas, where boundary layer heating has resulted in 3-hour MLCAPE increases of 100-200 J/kg over western Minnesota. In the big picture, the western upper trough will lift northeast and work its way across our area through midweek. Ridging will re-build across the west during that time, with northwest flow setting up over our area for the second half of the week. The western ridge will then flatten as it shifts east toward our area over the upcoming weekend.
However, chances are on the low side, giving too much uncertainty to include in the TAFs attm. Low pressure remains aloft over the Gulf of Mexico as Hurricane Maria continues northward to the east of the Bahamas. Later in the week, Maria will continue her path northward and a trough extending into the South Florida will bring some additional moisture and increasing rain chances.
823 PM EDT Sun Sep 24 2017 Aviation High pressure will continue to control our weather for the next few days. Cooler weather will arrive mid week after a strong cold front moves through. We'll be well into the 90s Monday with high pressure both at the surface and aloft. The ridge finally begins to move east Tuesday, but hot temperatures in upper 80s are still anticipated with records within a degree or two. The best chance of rain will be late Tuesday as a strong cold front moves through.
High pressure remains in place for yet another quiet night across the Southern Appalachian region. The ridge was able to suppress convection to a large degree this afternoon and tonight the only cloud type around is a bit of cirrus in spots; compliments of Maria.
The best lift associated with an upper level trough over the western U. /Issued 321 PM CDT Sun Sep 24 2017/ A deep upper trough currently centered across the Great Basin will slowly weaken through Tuesday, but the trough axis will remain nearly stationary. The upper trough will begin to morph into two distinct troughs by Tuesday night with the northern system moving east across the Northern Plains and the southern trough deepening over the Desert Southwest. This will allow a cold front to slide into the northwest sections of North Texas.
WV imagery shows deep upper trough centered over northern Utah with good fetch of moisture continuing to stream northward into the central and eastern Dakotas. Increased pops across southwest and central ND on Monday as upper level trough across the west lifts east/northeastward with trough axis across eastern Montana by 00z Tuesday. Continued low pops into Tuesday morning as trough lifts east of the Dakotas by 00z Wed, while upper level ridge develops across the western CONUS, putting the Northern Plains in northwest flow by Tuesday night.
623 PM CDT Sun Sep 24 2017 The area continues to be covered under the western periphery of a high pressure system centered over the Ohio Valley. The high pressure is expected to move into the northeast US tonight. The long wave trough will move closer to the region on Monday with scattered showers and thunderstorms possible Monday afternoon in central Missouri.
The upper level trough over the western US will begin to edge eastward over the next couple of days, but it won't be a quick process.
Most widespread rain will likely move out of southern and eastern Texas Panhandle and consolidate ahead of a slow moving cold front latter half of forecast period. /issued 309 PM CDT Sun Sep 24 2017/ Early this afternoon, the center of a large western trough was located over Utah. The low will lift slowly northeast into the northern Plains over the next several days.
Boundary should push far enough to get the far east back into cooler temperatures so minimums should range generally in the 40s. Main piece of the western upper low lifts northeast Monday night and Tuesday. Rain will move out of the region Tuesday evening followed by building high pressure.
A cold upper low will move northeast, and away from the region tonight through Monday. A new upper low will develop over western Arizona Tuesday. This low will return north and impact much of southern and eastern Utah during the latter half of the week. The upper low which brought widespread valley rain and mountain snow to northern Utah today is currently lifting northeastward across southwest Wyoming. Wrap around precipitation on the back side of this low has largely ended across northern Utah and southwest Wyoming, as the upper circulation moves away from the forecast area, with only a few lingering showers evident on radar imagery.
Numerous rain showers are expected, with thunder becoming more likely Monday afternoon with approach of cold front. A cold front is still expected to make its way across the area Monday and bring more chances for heavy rain. The end of the week finally will see some dry weather as zonal flow takes over as a closed low lifts out of the far southwest US.
Tomorrow, the upper low overhead will be weakening/filling quite rapidly and will not have the same cold pocket aloft to aid in destabilization.
The ECMWF would position the heaviest rainfall farther south closer to the I20 corridor with a more positively tilted trough than the GFS, with the GFS drawing more moisture and rainfall across our CWA.
642 PM CDT Sun Sep 24 2017 Not much change with the overall pattern this afternoon, with upper level ridging over the eastern half of the CONUS and a trough to the west. A slow-moving cold front extended from western Minnesota southwest into western Kansas.
Lows are on track to fall into the lower to mid 70s tonight.
/issued 309 PM CDT Sun Sep 24 2017/ Early this afternoon, the center of a large western trough was located over Utah. The low will lift slowly northeast into the northern Plains over the next several days.
/Issued 321 PM CDT Sun Sep 24 2017/ A deep upper trough currently centered across the Great Basin will slowly weaken through Tuesday, but the trough axis will remain nearly stationary. The upper trough will begin to morph into two distinct troughs by Tuesday night with the northern system moving east across the Northern Plains and the southern trough deepening over the Desert Southwest. This will allow a cold front to slide into the northwest sections of North Texas.
A noticeably cooler air mass will then build into the region for the latter half of the week. Large scale ridge centered over the ern OH valley persists this period. One more day of heat Tue before ridge breakdown in response to approach of Maria. Trailing cold frontal zone decays ewd through the OH valley yet enough to displace low level thermal ridge south of the OH river.
A gradual warming trend will continue through the first half of the workweek as high pressure across the eastern Pacific builds over California.
/issued 246 PM CDT Sun Sep 24 2017/ SHORT TERM (Now through Monday night): The region will remain trapped in an area of weakness aloft, as a mid/upper level trough deepens across the western half of the US and a weak area of low pressure over the northern Gulf of Mexico and the Gulf coast states slowly drifts westward. As the western trough builds eastward Monday and Monday night, deep layer moisture will be on the increase, with the dry pocket between 500 and 700 mb effectively eliminated.
843 PM EDT Sun Sep 24 2017 High pressure over the eastern United States will continue to bring mainly warm and dry weather to the region through midweek, while Hurricane Maria stays just off the east coast.
751 PM EDT Sun Sep 24 2017 Strong high pressure will remain over the region through early this week with mostly sunny days and very warm temperatures. A cold front will usher in a more seasonal airmass, along with a few rain showers, later this week. A strong ridge of high pressure both at the surface and aloft sits over the area bringing sunshine along with very warm and increasingly muggy conditions. The ridge persists and the trend will continue to be for subtle low level moisture advection into the region. Overnight lows will be generally in the low 60s.
705 PM CDT Sun Sep 24 2017 With high pressure situated over the Great Lakes, little change to the previous forecast was needed. Forecast confidence is high: High pressure to the east will pull away tonight into Monday as a weak trough approaches. Southerly low level flow between the approaching trough and departing high will keep an unseasonably warm airmass in the area. With the marginal forcing and shallow layer of moisture around 800 mb, will keep shower and thunderstorm chances in the low to medium range. The surface cold front does make it through south central Wisconsin Tuesday afternoon.
/issued 301 PM CDT Sun Sep 24 2017/ The upper level low that we've been talking about for the past several days is finally having its impact on the Midsouth with scattered thunderstorms ongoing this afternoon. Tomorrow there will be another slight chance of showers or thunderstorms, particularly in northwest MS and eastern AR where the greatest influence of the upper level low looks to take place.
702 PM CDT Sun Sep 24 2017 The large upper level trof that has been over the Rockies today, with its closed low over the Four Corners, will find the closed low opening up and lifting north before reforming in eastern Montana by Monday evening. Pieces of energy embedded in the lee side of the trof, will lift into the area tonight and Monday. Plenty of FGEN from the surface to 850mb right ahead of the upper trof.
525 PM MDT Sun Sep 24 2017 The overall pattern that has kept the Central High Plains region wet over the weekend will begin to shift eastward by late Monday as the upper low over the Great Basin begins to lift out across the Rockies and into the northern high plains. High temperatures on Monday should remain in the 50s while the overnight low temperatures will be in the lower 40s to middle 50s.
1034 PM EDT Sun Sep 24 2017 Currently - The combination of high pressure over the eastern United States and Hurricane Maria off the southeast Atlantic coast is producing a rather flat pressure field across the Florida Keys.
Then, a strengthening upper ridge and developing low level offshore flow will bring sunshine and warmer weather by mid week. The positive tilted upper ridge was over Western Washington this evening and sagging southeastward.
Cold front continues to push east and should move out of southeast NE and southwest IA overnight. Large scale flow turns more progressive the next several days as strengthening ridge off the west coast kicks downstream trof eastward out of the rockies. Noticeably cooler temps will invade the region then Monday with highs only topping in the mid/upper 50s north of the I-80 corridor with low/mid 70s south. Tuesday highs will push into the low/mid 60s.
Upper low over northeast Utah and slowly weakening and moving slowly northeast into Wyoming. There is some weak ascent aloft ahead of the low and this is helping to generate some very light rain and drizzle over the Front Range and portions of the northeast plains. Expect the low stratus deck to remain anchored in place tonight and at least through Monday morning with shallow and moist upslope flow in place. The main trof axis will still linger over Western Colorado through Monday with weak ascent continuing through eastern Colorado. By Tuesday the 500mb Low is progged to be over western North Dakota and its weakening upper trough extending back to the Desert Southwest.
With high pressure situated over the Great Lakes, little change to the previous forecast was needed. Forecast confidence is high: High pressure to the east will pull away tonight into Monday as a weak trough approaches. Southerly low level flow between the approaching trough and departing high will keep an unseasonably warm airmass in the area. With the marginal forcing and shallow layer of moisture around 800 mb, will keep shower and thunderstorm chances in the low to medium range. The surface cold front does make it through south central Wisconsin Tuesday afternoon.
741 PM EDT Sun Sep 24 2017 High pressure anchored over the Eastern Great Lakes will weaken and shift east Tuesday.
Prevailing VFR conditions overnight and into Monday at all terminals except for MVFR cigs this evening at SGJ as moisture with weak trough axis pivot southward down the FL Atlantic coast. The high surf advisory and high risk of rip currents will continue through Monday for at least NE FL beaches as swells continue to impact the local waters.
806 PM EDT Sun Sep 24 2017 Strong high pressure will remain over the region through early this week with mostly sunny days and very warm temperatures. A cold front will usher in a more seasonal airmass, along with a few rain showers, later this week. No significant changes were made to the previous forecast as high pressure controls the weather. A strong ridge of high pressure both at the surface and aloft sits over the area bringing sunshine along with very warm and increasingly muggy conditions. The ridge persists and the trend will continue to be for subtle low level moisture advection into the region. Overnight lows will be generally in the low 60s.
737 PM EDT Sun Sep 24 2017 An upper level ridge will remain over the region through mid week. Much cooler air will settle into the region by the end of the week. On Monday H5 ridge weakens from the south, due to the presence of Hurricane Maria. The ridge, although weaker, will hold again Monday night. Lows will be a little warmer, ranging from 60 to 65.
A noticeably cooler air mass will then build into the region for the latter half of the week. Large scale ridge centered over the ern OH valley persists this period. One more day of heat Tue before ridge breakdown in response to approach of Maria. Trailing cold frontal zone decays ewd through the OH valley yet enough to displace low level thermal ridge south of the OH river. Dry/stable airmass on the backside of high pressure centered near the Eastern Great Lakes will continue to ensure more VFR/dry conditions through the TAF cycle.
930 PM EDT Sun Sep 24 2017 High pressure anchored over the Eastern Great Lakes will weaken and shift east Tuesday.
An upper level low situated near the central Gulf coast tomorrow morning will slide eastward and over Florida on Tuesday. With the upper low shifting eastward on Tuesday and winds becoming northerly, drier air will filter in with PW values dropping to 1.
Relatively strong cold front may make its passage late in the night (wind shift), with moisture lagging behind the front. trough and the eastern U. S ridge placement by medium range model guidance this past week.
Thus, as snowfall decreases, a changeover to freezing drizzle is possible. Not enough confidence that the freezing drizzle will be widespread or impactful enough to warrant a headline at this time.
/Issued 353 AM CDT Fri Nov 3 2017/ Surface cold front curves from Hugo to McAlester and then northeast to Sallisaw/Fort Smith. Some mid to late afternoon clearing should occur from the south, and locations south of Interstate 40 could be in the 70s while areas near the Kansas border will remain in the low to mid 50s. The front will lift north as a warm front on Saturday, and clouds north of the front will affect high temps again. Still, it should be much warmer on Sat/Sun than today with highs in the 70s to lower 80s.
Max temperatures in the lower to middle 70s look about on track given the amount of cloud cover. It certainly looks to be a mild night though, given the abundant cloud cover and lingering showers, with early morning lows Sat again only dropping into the lower 60s for most areas. Rainfall will then begin to taper off Sat night, as the sfc boundary begins to lift back to the N as a warm front. As lows again remain predom in the lower 60s, highs Mon will rebound back into the upper 70s in advance of a stronger cold front approaching from the northwest.
756 AM EDT Fri Nov 3 2017 Cold front now extends from Zanesville, Ohio back to about Frankfort. A cold front continues to steadily make headway south and east, currently laid out from the southeastern Great Lakes to the Missouri/Tennessee border. Given the northern extent of the core of the upper trough across lower Canada and the Great Lakes, still expecting the front to slow its southward progress and hang up in vicinity of the upper Tennessee Valley or southern Kentucky later this afternoon into this evening. Warm air advection will promote temperatures warming back into the low 70s underneath a good deal of lingering cloud cover.
A stronger storm system will move through the region this weekend bringing cooler temperatures with more significant precipitation.
/issued 400 AM CDT Fri Nov 3 2017/ A cold front is draped over the southern plain states and extends as far south as Texas. North of the cold front temperatures are in the 30s and 40s with some upper 20s across the northern tier of the US. As funny as it sounds Lake Charles is warmer than Miami with Beaumont holding at the same temperature as Miami. Generally this would be enough to give us a few more storms but weak ridging aloft will hold this in check.
A cold front extended from the eastern Great Lakes down to the lower Ohio Valley and southwest into TX. High temperatures are a bit tricky depending on shower coverage and thickness of clouds, but most locations should reach the low to mid 70s. The frontal zone will stall across northern Mid TN late today, then return northward as a warm front tonight, This will set the stage for a very warm weekend with temps around 15 degrees above normal.
The upper level low pressure system over the Pacific Northwest will track slowly east across the northern Rockies and northern Great Basin through Saturday evening.
Water vapor loop indicated a flat upper ridge over MT/WY. Ridge will move over the forecast area later this morning. An upper level trough over the Pacific Northwest will move into the Northern Plains on Sat. Cold front will sweep across the forecast area Sat afternoon and evening. Warm advection east of the upper trough and an upper level jet will produce another round of snow for the northern zones roughly north of Highway 2.
Weak high pressure will build across the Southwest with a slight warming trend this weekend.
1040 AM EDT Fri Nov 3 2017 The mean layered ridge has shifted west over the past 24 hours, resulting in falling heights at all levels (see 12Z regional RAOBs). Although the peak high tides of November are usually the highest of the year, current water levels around the basin indicate near- normal tidal levels. In order for nuisance coastal flooding to affect the low lying areas of the island chain, we need anomalously high tides (half foot to one foot above normal/predicted), which is not the case so far.
906 AM EDT Fri Nov 3 2017 Weak high pressure is in place across the area as a weak trough lifts over the Bahamas region to the east of the state. Highs are on track to reach into the lower to mid 80s. Weak high pressure will continue across the area and keep winds light.
The fog should lift by late morning, but the low clouds may persist much of the day.
Highs this afternoon will climb into the low to mid 80s, around 5 degrees above normal.
That said, BUFKIT sounding profiles support light freezing drizzle towards daybreak in Bismarck and mid morning in Jamestown. Thus, as snowfall decreases, a changeover to freezing drizzle is possible. Not enough confidence that the freezing drizzle will be widespread or impactful enough to warrant a headline at this time.
Surface analysis this morning places a cold front from Eastern Arkansas east over West Tennessee near the TN/MS state line. Temps are very mild across the region with readings in the lower 70s and dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s under steady southerly flow. The cold front will move south and stall along or just south of the I-40 corridor this afternoon. After midnight a few showers are possible as the front lifts back north as a warm front.
Temps are very mild across the region with readings in the lower 70s and dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s under steady southerly flow. The cold front will move south and stall along or just south of the I-40 corridor this afternoon. After midnight a few showers are possible as the front lifts back north as a warm front.
High pressure from the southeast states into the Gulf of Mexico, combined with an approaching inverted trough near longitude 75W, will produce a low level north/northeast wind flow. A strong subsidence inversion will trap moisture in the lowest 5-6 thousand feet. The models continue to show the gradient tightening slightly as an inverted trough near longitude 75W moves slowly west while high pressure holds over the southeast states.
Shallow cooler/drier air continues to advect south across the area early this morning. A warm front will attempt to move north across the area during Saturday, though clouds may tend to linger a bit longer.
1234 PM EDT Fri Nov 3 2017 A cold front will push southeast across Pennsylvania today, then stall out south of the state tonight. This boundary will return northward as a warm front over the weekend.
Light snow may become mixed towards morning as column warms and ice nuclei aloft diminishes with freezing drizzle or drizzle developing towards morning. Water vapor loop indicated a flat upper ridge over MT/WY. Ridge will move over the forecast area later this morning. An upper level trough over the Pacific Northwest will move into the Northern Plains on Sat. Cold front will sweep across the forecast area Sat afternoon and evening. Warm advection east of the upper trough and an upper level jet will produce another round of snow for the northern zones roughly north of Highway 2.
07Z water vapor imagery shows a general west southwest flow over the southern half of the country while a closed low spun over the Pacific Northwest coast. Meanwhile at the surface, a ridge axis extended from the northern plains into the TX panhandle. Deeper low level moisture was not far away with obs showing dewpoints in the low 70s over east TX and gradually moving north. Have trended highs for today a little cooler than the prev forecast had.
There are model differences in how far north the warm front will travel on Saturday, and the NAM keeps cooler air in northern OK more than the ECMWF and GFS.
We also lowered temperatures in some places, thinking we may not reach the previous forecast or even reached the high for the day.
952 AM EDT Fri Nov 3 2017 A cold front will continue to move east of the area today, while high pressure pushes across the Great Lakes. A warm front will lift northwards on Saturday.
954 AM EDT Fri Nov 3 2017 A cold front will push through the area today. A cold front will push through the region today, providing some showers. A s/w trof will swing thru Saturday morning resulting scattered showers, most numerous across across the WV lowlands and mountains. A developing warm front across the region will keep the threat of showers through the afternoon but with much less coverage. The warm front lifts to the north Saturday night as southerly flow continues across the area, helping to keep lows on the warm side.
Looking upstream we do see some convective elements on radar - so the anticipation of heavier snowfall rates are still expected to overcome warmer ground temperatures. The loss of ice within the column still appears in BUFKIT and shows up well in the SPC HREF - but given ground temperatures are still above freezing and we also see loss of lift, the resulting light/short lived drizzle is not expected to present as an issue for travelers Saturday morning.
An upper low centered over northwest Washington and southern Vancouver Island will slowly fill and become an open wave today. As the upper low/trough moves through the area late this morning and this afternoon, expect these areas to see either isolated or scattered showers. The lower basin in Washington may stay dry though.
/issued 417 AM CDT Fri Nov 3 2017/ (Today and Tonight) A cold front has moved south to near a San Angelo to Brownwood line.
Fair weather but cooler temperatures will last through most of Saturday.