Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
915 PM MST FRI JAN 8 2016 RAP 500 MB ANALYSIS AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BRINGING SNOW TO COLORADO AND NEW MEXICO. THE AVAILABILITY OF MOISTURE AND LIFT PROVIDED BY THE PASSING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL KEEP PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE TRI STATE AREA THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE IN SOME PORTIONS OF THE TRI STATE AREA BEFORE THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BASE PASSES THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS. THE TROUGH BASE WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION BY 6Z. EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE LOW TO UPPER TEENS.
1227 AM EST SAT JAN 9 2016 A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING PRECIPITATION INTO THE REGION VERY LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. A BRIEF BREAK TAKES PLACE SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES IN ON SUNDAY BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAIN. DID ADD SOME FREEZING RAIN INTO THE FORECAST IN THE NORTHERN SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WHERE STRONGEST NOSE OF WARM AIR ALOFT MOVES IN WITH NORTHEAST COLD SURFACE FLOW STILL ENTRENCHED.
AND OFF TO THE WEST AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE REACHING WELL NORTH THROUGH ALASKA. THE ARCTIC AIR MASS CONTINUES TO DRIFT EAST ALLOWING THE RIDGE MORE INFLUENCE. WITH THE RIDGE BEGINNING TO ACT LIKE A WARM FRONT.
WEAK BAND OF COOLER TOPS MOVG WWD WERE NOTED OVER SWEETWATER COUNTY BUT SO FAR IT DOESN'T SEEM TO BE DOING MORE THAN PRODUCING FLURRIES. MAINLY IN AND NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND A LITTLE DOWNWIND.
352 AM CST SAT JAN 9 2016 An upper trough is over the central conus with the upper low centered over Oklahoma. A cold front associated with this upper trough is currently pushing south through the CWA. The upper trough will move east during the day today and high temperatures today will be quite a bit colder than yesterday with highs ranging from the upper 30s across the northern Permian Basin and southeast New Mexico to the mid 50s along the Rio Grande. The forecast beyond today looks to be fairly quiet precipitation wise despite a series of upper troughs passing over West Texas and southeast New Mexico.
In general, the models show the upper jet setting up and remaining across the souther tier of North America, allowing for periodic intrusions of arctic air south into the lower 48. This first ridge of high pressure should be centered over eastern KS on Sunday.
1210 AM EST SAT JAN 9 2016 A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS EARLY THIS MORNING. RAIN RETURNS WITH LOW PRESSURE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY BEFORE COLDER TEMPERATURES AND SNOW SHOWER CHANCES RETURN. WITH TEMPS ABV FREEZING. OVERALL MINIMAL ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 AND THE RIDGES. THERE IS A RELATIVELY BRIEF WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY WHERE STRONG DOWNSLOPE WINDS COULD DEVELOP ALONG EAST FACING SLOPES OF THE RIDGES OVERNIGHT SATURDAY. BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL SETTLE OVER THE CONUS. ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I-80 AND IN THE HIGH TERRAIN WITH LAKE ENHANCED/UPSLOPE SNOW EXPECTED. WARM FRONT WILL PUSH NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. BEHIND THE WARM FRONT.
QUICK UPDATE TO START PARING OUT NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE HIGHLIGHTS AS SNOW INTENSITY CONTINUES TO DIMINISH. UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN NEW MEXICO WILL CONTINUE SHIFTING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE EVENING. THOUGH APPEARS TO BE RE- INTENSIFYING ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS THE UPPER LOW SHIFTS SOUTHEASTWARD. PARTICULARLY THE SOUTHERN SANGRES AND THE NORTHERN RATON RIDGE. TEMPERATURES TOMORROW SHOULD REMAIN BELOW FREEZING FOR MOST AREAS.
THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS BROAD TROUGH MOVING OVER CO/NM WITH HUDSON BAY LOW BEGINNING TO PUSH SOUTHWARD. SURFACE TEMPS CONFIRM WITH READINGS IN THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS IN THESE AREAS. EXPECT CLEARING AS COLD DRY AIR PUSHES IN AHEAD OF ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE. AS THIS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN. TEMPS WILL WARM UP ON SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST AND WARMER POTENTIAL TEMPS AND RETURN FLOW TAKES ITS PLACE.
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING IN THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION WILL TRACK BY JUST TO OUR WEST ON ITS WAY TO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES DURING THE PERIOD. ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL SWING ACROSS OUR AREA TONIGHT. STILL EXPECT SOME LINGERING SHOWERS THAT MAY CHANGE OVER TO SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY PLATEAU AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS AS THE FREEZING LEVEL LOWERS.
TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY HOLDING STEADY OR RISING INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S. IN ADDITION, SOME BREAKS IN THE LOW CLOUD COVER IS NOTED ON IR SATELLITE AND SFC OBSERVATIONS--NECESSITATING A CHANGE IN THE SKY COVER FORECAST. THIS LOW DECK OF CLOUDS SHOULD THEN PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH SOME DROPS TO LIFR POSSIBLE AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND SFC COLD FRONT BRING -RA AND -TSRA. THEN, A COLD FRONT WILL BRING AN END TO THE TSRA ACTIVITY AND A CHANGE IN WIND DIRECTIONS TO WNW AFTER 10/00Z.
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AT THIS TIME WITH PARENT LOW IN EASTERN TEXAS. STILL EXPECTING THE LOW TO EJECT TO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND DRAGGING THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE STATE.
1219 AM EST SAT JAN 9 2016 A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING PRECIPITATION INTO THE REGION VERY LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. A BRIEF BREAK TAKES PLACE SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES IN ON SUNDAY BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAIN. DID ADD SOME FREEZING RAIN INTO THE FORECAST IN THE NORTHERN SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WHERE STRONGEST NOSE OF WARM AIR ALOFT MOVES IN WITH NORTHEAST COLD SURFACE FLOW STILL ENTRENCHED.
WHICH MAY BUILD NE INTO SW AR/EXTREME NW LA BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY ALONG/JUST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT AND ATTENDENT TROUGH AXIS. WITH ISOLATED THUNDER STILL POSSIBLE GIVEN THE STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. WITH THE TROUGH EXPECTED TO OPEN UP AND LIFT NE INTO THE MID-SOUTH AND OH VALLEY SATURDAY. A STG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS AREA MID TO LATE MORNING ON SATURDAY.
336 AM CST SAT JAN 9 2016 06Z SFC DATA HAS A COLD FRONT FROM SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN INTO CENTRAL TEXAS WHILE HIGH PRESSURE WAS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. DEW POINTS WERE IN THE 40S AND HIGHER AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THE HIGHEST SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE JUST OVER AN INCH ACROSS PUTNAM AND BUREAU COUNTIES WITH AMOUNTS QUICKLY DROPPING TO A TRACE BY THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. AS MOST OF THE CWA REMAINS BELOW FREEZING THROUGH THE WEEK AHEAD.
WV imagery shows the upper trough has cleared West Texas and Southeast New Mexico, whereas sfc obs place the front from around CNM-INK-Big Lake. /issued 352 AM CST SAT JAN 9 2016/ An upper trough is over the central conus with the upper low centered over Oklahoma. A cold front associated with this upper trough is currently pushing south through the CWA. The upper trough will move east during the day today and high temperatures today will be quite a bit colder than yesterday with highs ranging from the upper 30s across the northern Permian Basin and southeast New Mexico to the mid 50s along the Rio Grande. The forecast beyond today looks to be fairly quiet precipitation wise despite a series of upper troughs passing over West Texas and southeast New Mexico.
223 AM MST SAT JAN 9 2016 EARLY MORNING WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS A LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL US ACROSS THE GLD CWA WITH A CLOSED CENTER ROTATING OVER WESTERN OK TO THE SOUTHEAST. AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE IN IN PLACE ACROSS THE WESTERN US UPSTREAM. AT THE SURFACE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS ACROSS OUR CWA. WEAK FORCING BENEATH LONGWAVE TROUGH HAS COMBINED WITH A SATURATED LAYER FROM 925-700 MB AND STEEP LOW LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO SUPPORT POCKETS OF FLURRIES ACROSS THE AREA.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW GOOD LAPSE RATES AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS PASSES TONIGHT. SO ADJUSTED THE LOWS.
1047 PM MST FRI JAN 8 2016 06Z TAF CYCLE UPPER LOW TO EXIT NM BY 12Z WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. AREAS OF MVFR TO IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN LIGHT PRECIPITATION AND BR WILL PERSIST BEHIND A COLD FRONT OVER ERN NM BEFORE 15Z. HOWEVER TEMPS ARE ABOVE FREEZING AND IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED. A WEAK RIPPLE WILL ENHANCE SOME AFTERNOON SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT OVERALL LITTLE ADDITIONAL ACCUMS ARE ANTICIPATED. GUYER CLOSED LOW ALOFT WILL MOVE INTO EAST CENTRAL NM BY EARLY EVE THEN OUT OF THE STATE LATE TONIGHT. THOUGH IN THESE LATTER TWO AREAS ANY ACCUM SHOULD BE ON THE LOWER END OF THIS RANGE. THE LATTER HELPED OUT BY A FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TRACKING SEWD THROUGH THE STATE.
ROAD AND SIDEWALK SURFACE WARMED ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY TODAY. THESE WARMER SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAS ALLOWED SOME OF THE SNOW TO MELT AS IT FALLS AND WITH TEMPERATURES PLUMMETING BELOW FREEZING TONIGHT. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON REVEALING MID-LEVEL CLOSED LOW ALONG THE IA/IL BORDER. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOW A RATHER ELONGATED AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM EASTERN IA UP THROUGH WI. A SMALL SNOW CHANCE WILL PERSIST ACROSS CENTRAL WI SATURDAY EVENING ON THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING NORTHWARD ACROSS INDIANA.
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE MID SOUTH WILL MOVE QUICKLY UP THE TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION AND INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES THROUGH SUNDAY. ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL FL ON SUNDAY. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL ADVECT DOWN THE PENINSULA ON NORTHERLY WINDS SUN NIGHT-MON.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND SPREAD CLOUDS AND -SN TO CENTRAL OREGON AND THE JOHN DAY HIGHLANDS.
431 AM EST SAT JAN 9 2016 A STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST TODAY AND CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. MUCH COLDER AIR AND GUSTY WINDS WILL COME IN BEHIND THE LOW FOR SUNDAY.
205 AM EST SAT JAN 9 2016 A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS EARLY THIS MORNING. RAIN RETURNS WITH LOW PRESSURE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY BEFORE COLDER TEMPERATURES AND SNOW SHOWER CHANCES RETURN. WITH TEMPS ABV FREEZING. OVERALL MINIMAL ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 AND THE RIDGES. THERE IS A RELATIVELY BRIEF WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY WHERE STRONG DOWNSLOPE WINDS COULD DEVELOP ALONG EAST FACING SLOPES OF THE RIDGES OVERNIGHT SATURDAY.
342 AM CST SAT JAN 9 2016 (Today and Tonight) A cold front is currently moving south across the area and will clear southern counties around mid morning. Thermal profiles support a light rain/snow mix across this area this morning but precipitation will be very light and no accumulation or impact is expected as temperatures remain above freezing. This will make for a cold night with temperatures falling well below freezing areawide, with lows in the lower and middle 20s by daybreak Sunday.
WEAK UPPER TROUGH DROPPING ALONG THE DIVIDE IS KEEPING MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER OVER EAST-CENTRAL OREGON AND WEST- CENTRAL IDAHO THIS EVENING WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL AND BOISE MTNS. DENSE FOG HAS RETREATED SOME IN THE LOWER TREASURE VALLEY THIS EVENING BUT WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES IT WILL REDEVELOP BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. FOG NEVER CLEARED NEAR THE SNAKE RIVER IN THE LOWER TREASURE VALLEY. AND IS EXPECTED TO BECOME DENSE AGAIN THROUGHOUT THE LOWER TREASURE VALLEY TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
349 AM CST SAT JAN 9 2016 A HIGH AMPLITUDE H5 PATTERN WAS PRESENT TONIGHT ACROSS THE CONUS AS A DEEP TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM WESTERN PORTIONS OF HUDSON BAY SOUTH SOUTHWEST INTO WEST TEXAS AND NEW MEXICO. EAST OF THE TROUGH. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM NEW ENGLAND NORTH INTO QUEBEC. WEST OF THE TROUGH. A RIDGE EXTENDED UP THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE NOTED OVER MONTANA. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD SOUTH INTO THE DAKOTAS TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA. WITH THE HIGH BUILDING INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA TONIGHT.
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS CENTRAL AND EAST TEXAS LAGGING BEHIND COLD FRONT TO POSSIBLY PRODUCE ELEVATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.
315 AM CST SAT JAN 9 2016 Precipitation is spreading northeast into the Ozarks this morning while sub-freezing air continues to spread in from the northwest. This is just shy of winter weather advisory criteria, and with temperatures hovering near or slightly above freezing this morning, and the fact that it's a weekend with less traffic on the roads, impacts shouldn't be enough to warrant an advisory for these areas.
342 AM CST SAT JAN 9 2016 A cold front is currently moving south across the area and will clear southern counties around mid morning. Thermal profiles support a light rain/snow mix across this area this morning but precipitation will be very light and no accumulation or impact is expected as temperatures remain above freezing. This will make for a cold night with temperatures falling well below freezing areawide, with lows in the lower and middle 20s by daybreak Sunday.
1050 PM CST FRI JAN 8 2016 MID LEVEL TROUGH SAGGING OVER NORTHWEST IOWA THIS AFTERNOON WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
MVFR CIGS ARE PRESENT AT ALL SITES WITH A DOWNWARD TREND EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS MOISTURE AND LIFT INCREASES IN THE LOWEST 1000 FEET AGL.
WHILE NEXT UPPER LEVEL WAVE RESIDES ACROSS THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY. NOW AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES WINDS DO BEGIN TO COME OUT OF THE SE. THINK BETTER CHANCES OF SEEING IT WILL BE LATER IN THE DAY AS TEMPS FALL BELOW FREEZING BY LATE AFTERNOON IN MOST SPOTS. THAT SAID DO TAPER THIS ACTIVITY OFF THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND CONFINE BEST SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN NEARER THE VA BORDER FAVORING THE UPSLOPE POTENTIAL. OTHERWISE MODELS SUGGEST THIS LOWER DECK SHOULD DISSOLVE AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS.
THE HIGH RESOLUTION RAPID REFRESH /HRRR/ MODEL SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THE CURRENT PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY. /ISSUED 348 PM CST FRI JAN 8 2016/ UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT HAS BEEN PROGGED TO MOVE IN AND PROVIDE PRECIP HAS PUSHED FURTHER SOUTH THAN MODELS ORIGINALLY FORECASTED. ALREADY IN PLACE IS A BACK DOOR PASSIVE COLD FRONT WHICH HAS BEEN ANYTHING BUT FUN THIS MORNING. THE FRONT HAS MOVED VERY SLOWLY AND SO HAS THE LOW STRATUS BEHIND THE FRONT. THE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT AHEAD AND BEHIND THE FRONT AVERAGES AROUND 15 DEGREES WITH MOST AREAS BEHIND THE FRONT BEING STEADY IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. AROUND THIS TIME THE MAIN LIFT WITH THE LOW WILL MOVE OVERHEAD AND SHOULD BE FOCUSED AROUND THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE.
Another cold front is moving south across North Texas. /issued 526 PM CST FRI JAN 8 2016/ /00Z TAFS/ Look for a cold front to bring gusty winds from the north and MVFR ceilings to West Central Texas. /issued 351 PM CST FRI JAN 8 2016/ (Tonight and Saturday) A strong upper level trough over New Mexico will move east across the Southern Plains tonight and Saturday. At the surface, a cold front will move south across the area tonight. For Saturday, the cold front will exit the area by mid morning.
VSBYS WILL IMPROVE WITH THE ONSET OF STG COLD FRONT MOVG INTO SE OK/NE TX BY AROUND 09/12Z. MOSTLY WNW WINDS INCREASING TO AT LEAST 15 KTS AREAWIDE DURG DAY WITH PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT. WHICH MAY BUILD NE INTO SW AR/EXTREME NW LA BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY ALONG/JUST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT AND ATTENDENT TROUGH AXIS. WITH ISOLATED THUNDER STILL POSSIBLE GIVEN THE STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. WITH THE TROUGH EXPECTED TO OPEN UP AND LIFT NE INTO THE MID-SOUTH AND OH VALLEY SATURDAY.
118 AM MST SAT JAN 9 2016 RAP 500 MB ANALYSIS AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BRINGING SNOW TO COLORADO AND NEW MEXICO. THE AVAILABILITY OF MOISTURE AND LIFT PROVIDED BY THE PASSING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL KEEP PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE TRI STATE AREA THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE IN SOME PORTIONS OF THE TRI STATE AREA BEFORE THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BASE PASSES THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS. THE TROUGH BASE WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION BY 6Z. EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE LOW TO UPPER TEENS.
1237 AM EDT MON JUL 20 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGHER PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS TONIGHT AS SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WEAK RIDGE WILL BUILD IN FROM WEST LATER MONDAY. BUT ANOTHER COLD FRONT/PRE- FRONTAL TROUGH WILL BRING MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION ON TUESDAY. THE TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON. TUESDAY WILL BE ON THE MUGGY SIDE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S, WHILE HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S NORTH TO THE LOWER 80S INTERIOR DOWNEAST.
628 PM CDT SUN JUL 19 2015 THE FOCUS FOR TONIGHT AND MONDAY WILL BE A COLD FRONT THAT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTHLAND. COOLER AIR WILL INFILTRATE THE REGION LATER TONIGHT AND MONDAY. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE TOO MUCH COOLER BEHIND THIS FRONT. AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES INTO THE DAKOTAS BEHIND THE FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST.
THIS FEATURE WILL BE WEAK AND TRANSIENT EXISTING JUST LONG ENOUGH TO SWITCH THE FLOW ALOFT TO WESTERLY BEFORE THE NEXT APPROACHING TROUGH BACKS IT AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST AGAIN. HOWEVER, INSTABILITY IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGH WILL TRIGGER ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHWEST MONTANA TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
REMNANT UPPER TROUGH AXIS FROM MONTANA SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE GREAT BASIN THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL SERVE TO FLATTEN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS UPPER HIGH.
RIDGING ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC WILL MAINTAIN SUBSIDENCE AND STABILITY ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH MONDAY. MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CENTERED OVER TEXAS WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE SUBSIDENCE ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. MOST OF THE MOISTURE REMAINS CONCENTRATED IN THE LOWER LEVELS WITH MUCH MORE DRIER AIR ALOFT. THE NAM CONTINUES TO INDICATED SOME BETTER MOISTURE LEVELS ADVECTING FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO TOWARDS THE LOWER TEXAS COAST TONIGHT AND MONDAY. MID TO UPPER 90S IN THE LOWER TO MID VALLEY AND AROUND 100 IN THE UPPER VALLEY AND ACROSS THE WEST.
HOWEVER THE HIGHER WIND GUSTS WILL END SHORTLY LEAVING THIS FEATURE A BIT MORE SUBTLE. WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SW INTO NE MT. THE COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN COOLER AIR ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT.
656 PM CDT SUN JUL 19 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE ONCE AGAIN WITH WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS.
TONIGHT AND MONDAY NARROW HIGH PRESSURE WAS RIDGING FROM NEBRASKA TO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN TODAY. LOCALLY A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WAS SLIDING OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION EARLY TODAY. BEST LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ORIGINATING OVER UPPER MICHIGAN AND FAR NORTHERN WISCONSIN CLOSER TO THE TROUGH. WEAK UPPER RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE AREA EARLY THIS EVENING PRIOR TO ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO APPROACH FROM SOUTHERN CANADA LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. A COLD FRONT AND REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH IS TRACKING A BIT FASTER.
WE'RE JUST BEGINNING A TREND THAT STARTED TO SHOW ITSELF ON THE 00Z KTWC SOUNDING WHERE WE ARE SPENDING THE LOWER LEVELS DRY WITHOUT REINFORCEMENT.
SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A RATHER DIFFUSE PATTERN IN PLACE WITH A BROAD RIDGE CENTERED ACROSS THE NRN GULF OF MEXICO BUT RATHER WEAK FLOW ACROSS NORTH ALABAMA. SOME BLOWOFF FROM THIS EXTENDS AS FAR NORTH AS THE LOWER TN VALLEY. ALSO, A COUPLE OF WEAK SFC TROFS/CONVERGENCE ZONES MAY BE HELPING THIS REGION OF ACTIVITY. THE MCS/MCV OVER THE LOWER MO VALLEY IS FORECAST BY THE MODELS TO DROP SE AROUND THE RIDGE INTO THE TN VALLEY BY MONDAY MORNING, BUT IT IS UNCLEAR IF IT WILL FULLY REGENERATE OR NOT. IN FACT, A COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY SAG INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY.
ACTIVE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THRU THE END OF THE WEEK/UPCOMING WEEKEND AS THE BROAD RIDGE OVR THE SRN CONUS RETROGRADES AND STRENGTHENS OVR THE SRN ROCKIES.
COLD FRONT CROSSES TUESDAY. WITH THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT OF THE ATMOSPHERE. AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA WILL RESULT IN COOL.
900 PM EDT SUN JUL 19 2015 BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE AREA TUESDAY BEFORE CROSSING TUESDAY EVENING.
1133 PM CDT SUN JUL 19 2015 THUNDER CHANCES INCREASE MONDAY EVENING AS A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE REGION. CONSIDERATION LATE IN THE PERIOD FOR PRECIPITATION AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE FCST AREA. OTHERWISE HIGH TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA SEEM TO BE ON MARK WITH SEASONAL NORMS OR A SLIGHTLY WARMER. A MILD OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH A NOD TO COOLER LOWS ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS AGAIN AS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO RUN A LITTLE WARM.
1035 PM EDT SUN JUL 19 2015 HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO REMAIN OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK.
CONSIDERATION LATE IN THE PERIOD FOR PRECIPITATION AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE FCST AREA. OTHERWISE HIGH TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA SEEM TO BE ON MARK WITH SEASONAL NORMS OR A SLIGHTLY WARMER. A MILD OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH A NOD TO COOLER LOWS ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS AGAIN AS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO RUN A LITTLE WARM.
/ISSUED 1003 PM CDT SUN JUL 19 2015/ THE PERSISTENT DEATH RIDGE ALOFT REMAINS ANCHORED OVER MUCH OF THE SRN PLAINS AND FOUR STATE REGION THIS EVENING. 02Z TEMPS ARE RUNNING 1-2 DEGREES WARMER THAN 24 HOURS AGO. WITH THE 4 INCH SOIL TEMPS ALSO RUNNING SLIGHTLY WARMER AS WELL /AT 90 DEGREES/. A WARMER START TO THE MORNING WITH NEARLY IDENTICAL IF NOT HOTTER TEMPS MONDAY WILL YIELD HEAT INDICES NEAR OR IN EXCESS OF 105 DEGREES OVER MUCH OF SW AR/PORTIONS OF WRN LA. AS THE RIDGE ALOFT MAY FLATTEN SOME OVER ERN OK/WRN AR.
EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE BREAKING OUT NEAR THE COLD FRONT ON WHAT APPEARS TO BE A BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTHEAST ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA. ALLOWED POPS TO LOWER OVERNIGHT FAR NORTH AS COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTH OF THAT AREA. THE COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY BEGINNING TO MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN COUNTIES OF THE CWA AND AS IT DROPS FARTHER SOUTH LATER THIS EVENING. THE HIGHER RISK FOR SEVERE APPEARS TO LIE SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 70 CORRIDOR. THEN STARTING TUESDAY NIGHT AND FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD (AND ACTUALLY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK!) CONDITIONS WILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL AND MORE IMPORTANTLY.
955 PM CDT SUN JUL 19 2015 SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THAT HAS REACHED KOOCHICHING AND NORTHERN ST. A FEW SHOWERS ARE MOVING THROUGH THE BWCAW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THE FOCUS FOR TONIGHT AND MONDAY WILL BE A COLD FRONT THAT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTHLAND. COOLER AIR WILL INFILTRATE THE REGION LATER TONIGHT AND MONDAY. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE TOO MUCH COOLER BEHIND THIS FRONT. AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES INTO THE DAKOTAS BEHIND THE FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST.
842 PM EDT SUN JUL 19 2015 SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE PUSHES EAST AND A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP ON MONDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT THAT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY MORNING. A COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIRMASS WILL SETTLE IN FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE ILN CWA OVERNIGHT. THE WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL STALL AND WASH OUT ALONG THE OHIO RIVER MONDAY MORNING. POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH MONDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND USHERS IN A COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIRMASS. COLD FRONT TIMING FOR TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT IS FASTER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS.
A stretch of unsettled weather is likely to begin during the short term period with our region located in a weakness between a ridge to the west and east. As a result, have the highest PoP values across North Florida through the short term period. With more widespread convection expected, should finally see a break in the heat with temperatures returning to the lower 90s during the afternoon.
COMBINATION OF ENERGY AROUND THIS TROUGH AND DIURNAL INSTABILITY LED TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE PROXIMITY OF THE TROUGH EXPECTING ENOUGH OF A PRESSURE GRADIENT TO KEEP THE FLOW UP ENOUGH TO LIMIT FOG/STRATUS POTENTIAL TONIGHT.