Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Clouds are increasing from north to south across the forecast area this evening ahead of a weather disturbance on the back side of an upper trough over the Rocky Mountains. except dry in the Lower Columbia Basin and in central/north central Oregon. Snow levels will be high enough where snow will only be possible over the higher Wallowa Mountains Thursday afternoon and evening.
/ISSUED 354 PM CDT Wed May 24 2017/ Water vapor imagery nicely depicting the surge of drier air rushing into the state in response to ridging filling the void of the northeastern-exiting upper low moving up into the Ohio River Valley. high pressure centered over the lower Rio Grande is creating a brisk northwest wind with overall subsidence keeping skies mostly sunny and warming this afternoon's temperatures into the lower 80s.
After sunset, the overall light convection will slowly lessen and continue to move east associated with a surface and upper low pressure system.
825 PM CDT Wed May 24 2017 Clouds and light convection over AR associated with the surface and upper low pressure systems, continue to rotate around mainly northern to eastern areas. Otherwise, a northwest wind will bring in cooler temperatures with lows from the upper 40s to lower 50s. After sunset, the overall light convection will slowly lessen and continue to move east associated with a surface and upper low pressure system.
With the loss of daytime heating and the low pulling away from the area any lingering shower activity should quickly dissipate late this afternoon and early evening after sunset. The light to calm winds combined with clearing skies and highly anomalous low 500mb heights will set the stage for near record low temperatures tonight under nearly ideal radiational cooling conditions with a much cooler and drier airmass in place.
758 PM EDT Wed May 24 2017 A cold front, which is currently located just to the Northwest of the forecast area, will move Southeast across the region Tonight.
/issued 325 PM CDT Wed May 24 2017/ Temps across the Midsouth were running 15 to 20 degrees below normal this afternoon, courtesy of an upper level low centered over MO. Given sufficiently strong updrafts, small hail will be possible given freezing levels near 7 KFT AGL. The upper low will track southeast through the Midsouth during the evening, with gradually shrinking shower coverage mainly south of/ahead of the upper low center. By sunrise Thursday, the upper low will have departed with clouds likely cleared except near the TN River. Thursday will begin the warming trend, as upper level ridging builds in.
Winds are still forecast to increase tonight as a cold front drops southward toward Utah and Colorado. Showers are expected to continue across the region through the day Thursday and drop southward as the front remains stalled but cooler air protrudes southward.
/Issued 328 PM CDT Wed May 24 2017/ Upper level low centered over southern Missouri this afternoon will move east through Thursday morning with waning influence on our weather.
653 PM CDT Wed May 24 2017 Low level cyclonic flow around low pressure in central KY will keep showers and a few t-storms in eastern Illinois the rest of the evening.
1044 PM EDT Wed May 24 2017 Cold front will move through the Midlands and CSRA overnight with additional showers and thunderstorms. On Thursday the upper level low will cross the region bringing another chance of showers and thunderstorms to the area.
709 PM EDT Wed May 24 2017 Low pressure system to move through the region today with another round of showers and thunderstorms, some severe. The cold front will finally move east of the area tonight, and only light showers expected Thursday.
As sfc/upper level ridging influences build across the mid state region, MVFR ceilings erosions will occur between 25/16Z-25/18Z, with VFR ceilings around 5kft eroding CKV/BNA by 25/20Z-25/21Z.
7 PM UPDATE: Did trim back the high wind warning to only Phillips county through 9 PM. Adjusted hazards to bring in the Lake Wind Advisory for Fort Peck, extend the Red Flag and trim down the high wind. Cold front now draped over the last eastern tier of counties. Occasional winds on the order of 40 mph gusting to 50 mph - maybe a bit higher - are the highest we have been able to realize today. As the High Wind Warning comes to an end, a Lake Wind Advisory will be needed, possibly for quite a while.
1030 PM CDT Wed May 24 2017 Quiet and mostly dry conditions prevail as an upper ridge builds in over the area. Mostly cloudy skies in combination with breezy southerly winds ahead of the front, will bring warmer and near seasonal temperatures. Highs will be in the lower to mid 70s.
935 PM EDT Wed May 24 2017 Cold front on the e side of the area with the last of the thunderstorms associated. Showers over AL associated with the upper Low will affect the n and portions of central GA later tonight into Thursday before exiting.
633 PM CDT Wed May 24 2017 Scattered showers over west and central MO associated a low pressure system over SE MO will persist through sunset. Cloudy skies and northerly winds will once again keep the high temperatures well below normal as this trend changes going into Thursday. The lowest visibilities look to be located near the calm winds over the central portion of our CWA. Winds will shift to the south with warm air advection pushing into the area along a weak ridge building into the area. The ridging will quickly move east with a zonal upper level pattern over the southern Rockies initiates a more active pattern for the weekend.
With a slow eastward movement of the upper level trough at least isolated showers will be possible near the Indiana border through the night while showers taper off slowly from west to east. Lows in the low 50s expected, slightly cooler than normal. Low level cyclonic flow around low pressure in central KY will keep showers and a few t-storms in eastern Illinois the rest of the evening.
In the middle and upper levels(700-200 mb), latest available IR imagery overlaid with model streamline analysis as of 900 pm, detail a well aliened middle and upper level low pressure system located unusually far south for late May, over Western Tennessee. The base of the associated deep cold core trough associated with this system extends all the way down into the Yucatan Peninsula and Western Cuba. Temperatures along the island chain outside of the rain cooled air are in the upper 70s, but saturated in the lower and middle 70s where the airmass is cooled by the convection.
629 PM CDT Wed May 24 2017 High pressure to shift east overnight with light northwest winds becoming southeast at 5 to 10 knots by 25/12Z. High pressure was centered off to our West in Texas this morning but has pretty much just melted into the Gulf during this afternoon. So it has been cooler in May.
An upper trough located across the central Rockies this afternoon will be kicked northeast into the northern plains on Saturday by a more intense upper trough digging southeast into the western and southwestern US. At the surface a broad ridge of high pressure extended from northern MN, southwest across eastern and central KS. As the weak upper trough across the central Rockies lift northeastward across the northern and central plains Tonight and Saturday, there may be enough ascent combined with isentropic lift across western KS for showers and few elevated thunderstorms to develop this afternoon and through the night. Any lingering showers Saturday morning across the northwest counties of the CWA should move northeast into NE as the lead H5 trough fills and lifts northeast into the upper Midwest.
High pressure near the Upper Midwest continues to usher in a cool, dry airmass with northeasterly winds this evening.
With clouds and spotty showers in the area, highs will be a degree or two cooler than today, in the mid 60s to near 70.
Current temperature trends are running from 5 to 15 degrees cooler across the area with current readings in the 60s to upper 70s. Warmest interior areas in Monterey and San Benito counties are running in the 80s to lower 90s, but even these temperatures are several degrees cooler than yesterday. The upper level trough over the west will bring an increased onshore flow to our district through Saturday with continued cooler temps.
Adjusted temperatures on the Cumberland Plateau and in a few other outlying areas a couple of degrees lower as clear skies and northerly winds should allow for temperatures to fall into the low 50s.
High pressure, with drier air, will build in Saturday night and remain for several days.
1155 PM CDT Fri Sep 29 2017 Cool and dry air will continue filtering into the area tonight behind the weak cold front which moved through the region today. Light winds and mostly clear skies will be favorable for radiational cooling, therefore overnight lows should be similar to or a few degrees cooler than last night. On Saturday, the combination of upper ridging and dry easterly flow around the southern side of a high pressure center over the Great Lakes will produce another cool and dry day across the region.
Moisture over eastern Arizona will persist today resulting in isolated showers and thunderstorms over the higher elevations well east of Phoenix.
Cold front is moving across eastern Oregon this evening and will cross through southwest Idaho early Saturday morning. Cold front across Southeast Oregon this evening will continue east overnight.
A weak ridge tonight will give way to a progressive trough across northern Utah Saturday.
Showers and wind supported by an upper level low will move past the area this weekend.
703 PM CDT Fri Sep 29 2017 The weather pattern becomes more active heading into the weekend ahead of an upper low pressure system and trough over the Rockies. At the surface, high presure was building southeast from the upper Midwest and low pressure was developing along the high plains. Mid and high cloud cover were increasing from the west associated with increasing moisture/lift as jet streak rounds the base of the intermountain trough and noses northeast onto the plains. Temperatures in the low/mid 70s still look on track at this time for highs. Saturday night the lead wave lifts out across the northern plains while the western trough deepens over the Rockies, resulting in southwest flow across the interior CONUS.
Even though the low levels will continue to dry out through the night, abundant mid level moisture will keep the sky cloudy.
Cloudiness/precip currently over southern Florida is associated with a weak inverted trof. This feature will be making its way westward under the llvl ridge and across the northern Gulf coast this weekend.
/issued 341 PM CDT Fri Sep 29 2017/ The "cold" front that pushed through the area this morning did little to temper our above normal temperatures as the drier air filtering in behind the front allowed highs in many places to once again reach the lower 90's. One more day of dry weather expected Saturday compliments of the drier air and high pressure centered across the central US.
This higher level moisture will shunt further west away from the area later on Saturday, as the mid level high intensifies somewhat and expands westward across the state. Even though the low levels will continue to dry out through the night, abundant mid level moisture will keep the sky cloudy.
Confidence remains very high in the short term as a large dome of high pressure continues to work its way southeast out of southern Canada into the Great Lakes and upper Ohio Valley regions.
High pressure, light winds and clear skies will dominate the region on Saturday. Medium Cumulus field fairly widespread with mid level cyclonic flow and low level thermal trough. Combo of low level thermal trough and increasingly favorable trajectory could lead to period of lake induced cloud cover hanging on for a time. Lingering tighter pressure gradient between departed low pressure and high pressure building in from the Plains will result in the winds staying up for a time overnight. The high shifts off to the east pretty quick on Saturday so influence of low level thermal trough wanes as return flow starts to take shape. Mid level ridging translates across WI as well.
High pressure builds in across the Upper Great Lakes region today into tonight leading to clearing skies. Lows tonight in the low to mid 30s, coldest over inland areas of northwest Wisconsin. Given these cool temps, a frost advisory has been issued for much of the region since much of the region has not yet hit the freezing mark this fall. Saturday will start off sunny with temperatures a bit warmer due to southerly flow in the wake of the high pressure. Increasing clouds late in the day from west to east as a warm front approaches.
/28/ Tonight and Tomorrow: As the upper trough currently over the Great Lakes pushes off to the east tonight and tomorrow, an upper ridge will move into the middle of the U. As this transition occurs, the upper high builds over our region. Overnight lows will be in the low to mid 60s and Saturday highs will be in the mid to upper 80s. /10/ Saturday night through Friday: Warmer than normal through the week.
In the upper levels, heights will be elevated and we will trend toward ridging through the weekend. Retrograde surface ridging will occur while an upper high builds over the southeastern U.
A weakly defined cold front is dropping into the Ohio Valley this afternoon and evening, with little more than a few clouds to go with it. Strong high pressure at the surface and aloft build in for the weekend, continuing the dry trend.
A weak cold front has pushed through Central Alabama, with high pressure centered well to our north, across northern MN. A mid level moisture axis associated with the upper level trough axis has left just enough moisture in place for a few isolated and brief showers this afternoon across the east and south. Overnight lows will be in the low 60s north to upper 60s south. This will bring in cooler/drier weather for the region.
611 PM CDT Fri Sep 29 2017 High pressure center is located over the Upper Midwest/south central Canadian border this afternoon. Weak boundary moving through the region this morning with a wind shift and reinforcing cooler/subsident air. Tonight is cooler, with the lows dropping into the 40s under mostly clear skies and light winds. Cooler temps will impact the diurnal swing tomorrow, keeping high temperatures in the low 70s through the afternoon. GFS guidance may need to be pulled in as they are the lowest presented. Through the remains of the weekend, the upper ridge continues to build over a large portion of the country. Central Illinois is on the edge between a more southwesterly stream aloft (just to the NW), and a large airmass/upper ridge over the Southeast/into the Ohio River Valley.
Overnight temps should fall into the 40s with 30s across the higher elevations. Noticeably cooler temps can be expected for the weekend.
/issued 311 PM CDT Fri Sep 29 2017/ Upper ridge has backdoored drier air into the region with low and mid lvl easterly flow. Seasonal temps have returned to the area thru Sat night with daytime highs ranging thru the 80s, and overnight lows in the lower to middle 60s, and some upper 50s expected along and north of I-30.
A low pressure system north of Arizona will continue the chance of showers and thunderstorms through Saturday, primarily over the eastern portion of Arizona. A large area of low pressure will move south out of Canada and over the western US.
An exiting upper level ridge of high pressure will maintain dry conditions tonight. On Saturday, the first in a series of cold fronts will move through the region, cooling afternoon highs back down closer to more seasonal normals, along with allowing for a few scattered showers, especially over Southwest MT.
Fog is already becoming an issue across the I-80 summit and portions of the high plains this evening as winds have backed into the south and southeast. With a south or south-southeast wind direction, expect the ridges to see most of the fog with only a low cloud deck in the valleys.
Visible imagery shows clear skies across the region, and temperatures have warmed into the lower 80s despite the frontal passage. Upper trough will swing across the New England states tonight into Saturday with a large area of high pressure building in its wake from the Great Lakes south to the Tennessee Valley. The upper ridge will also amplify with time as the next northern stream trough begins to take shape across the northern Rockies.
Tomorrow, models indicate the leading edge of an upper trough will be moving over northwest Colorado in the afternoon. Temperatures are expected to be a few degrees warmer than today, depending on how much stratus develops overnight. We should see at least a couple inches of snow on the higher mountain passes with some travel impacts possible with slushy conditions in the heavier snow showers.
1027 PM EDT Fri Sep 29 2017 High pressure and a drier cooler airmass lies over the forecast area this evening. Another front to the north will move through later tonight bringing with it only a few clouds and reinforcing the dry and cooler airmass now overhead. Lows will fall into the upper 40s and 50s which will be the lowest of the fall season so far.
Similar weather is in store for Saturday as a positively tilted trof moves closer to the CWA. possibly a bit warmer as WSW winds aloft erodes the cool surface airmass. With the warmer temps there could be a little more instability so there will be a chance of thunderstorms.
Skies will remain mostly cloudy to cloudy overnight with lows in the lower to middle 70s. A broad trough extending into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico will support high rain chances starting later today and continuing through the weekend. This trough will drift northward through the next day or so, with a weak area of low pressure possibly developing over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Regardless of development, rain chances remain elevated and, as of now, no headlines are expected through Saturday, although it should be noted that the wind forecast is of lower confidence than normal due to the forecast uncertainty with the low.
An upper level trough will remain over the area over through the weekend.
/NF/ Prior discussion below: Tonight and Tomorrow: As the upper trough currently over the Great Lakes pushes off to the east tonight and tomorrow, an upper ridge will move into the middle of the U. As this transition occurs, the upper high builds over our region. Overnight lows will be in the low to mid 60s and Saturday highs will be in the mid to upper 80s. /10/ Saturday night through Friday: Warmer than normal through the week.
1128 PM CDT Fri Sep 29 2017 A blocking pattern currently situated across the Northern Rockies will slowly erode this evening, ushering in the next pattern change which will bring a return of precipitation chances for portions of the area Saturday night.
The center of the low pressure is clearly seen on the visible satellite and it looks like it may have bee enhanced some while passing over Lake Huron late this morning. Winds will gradually weaken this evening and overnight as the low pressure system exits to the east. Expect overnight lows to be mostly in the 40s with much cooler air in place. High pressure will allow cooler temperatures to stay and keep highs in the 60s with lows overnight Saturday dropping just a tad further into the lower 40s and upper 30s along and north of the I-69 corridor.
648 PM CDT Fri Sep 29 2017 Cool and dry air will continue filtering into the area tonight behind the weak cold front which moved through the region today. Light winds and mostly clear skies will be favorable for radiational cooling, therefore overnight lows should be similar to or a few degrees cooler than last night. On Saturday, the combination of upper ridging and dry easterly flow around the southern side of a high pressure center over the Great Lakes will produce another cool and dry day across the region.
816 PM EDT Fri Sep 29 2017 A dry cold front is aligned from southeast Ohio down to the Indiana/Kentucky border. This front will continue to drop southeast into our area through the night, helping to reinforce the cooler air mass in place. Expect some dense river valley fog once again, but this should form later than last night, given the drier air already in place and the frontal passage at least temporarily mixing the lower boundary layer. The cold front to the north will push south tonight, but little in the way of impact is expected with the front except we should see a reinforcing shot of cooler air filter in behind the front. An upper level ridge is expected to be in place across the Eastern Conus to begin the period.
1133 PM CDT Fri Sep 29 2017 SCT-BKN VFR CIGS continued to blanket the terminals tonight, whilst a few light radar echoes prevailed near ktyr and kggg, though precip likely not making it to the ground /relatively dry in the lower levels of the atmosphere/. /issued 311 PM CDT Fri Sep 29 2017/ Upper ridge has backdoored drier air into the region with low and mid lvl easterly flow. Seasonal temps have returned to the area thru Sat night with daytime highs ranging thru the 80s, and overnight lows in the lower to middle 60s, and some upper 50s expected along and north of I-30.
Temperatures range from the upper 70s in rain cooled areas to the lower 80s elsewhere. A weak area of low pressure will be located over the southern portion of the Florida peninsula overnight. The unstable and exceptionally moist air mass in place coupled with the aforementioned area of low pressure just north of the Florida Keys will be responsible for rain chances tonight well above normal for this time of year.
539 PM MDT Fri Sep 29 2017 Latest upper analysis showed a high amplitude ridge over plains states and provinces with an upper low over Wyoming. A the surface, high pressure was centered over Lake Superior with a N-S oriented low pressure trough over the western CONUS. A persistent area of cloud cover over parts nern WY and far wrn SD has kept temps slightly cooler than forecast this afternoon. Early Saturday, the upper low will wash out in response to the deepening upper trough over the western CONUS. Low pressure developing over southern BC will draw warm air northward as a warm front crossing the forecast area. Southwesterly flow aloft will promote warm air advection/thermal ridge over the CWA with readings well into the 70s.
Overnight, lows will range in the mid 40s for northeast Colorado to the lower to mid 50s for north central Kansas. High temperatures tomorrow will be in the lower to mid 70s.
Maliawco Previous Discussion: The upper-level ridge of high pressure which has been responsible for the recent beautiful weather conditions is now slowly moving east as a weak low pressure center approaches from the the south and a larger low pressure trough over the Pacific NW approaches from the west. Overall, the 500 mb height field will continue to drop as that small low center moves directly over NE Montana and subsequently becomes absorbed into the northern stream low pressure trough approaching from the west.
Inverted trough axis across the central Florida peninsula will lift slowly northward overnight with weak low pressure also developing along the trough axis as it moves northward. For the remainder of the overnight should see showers and isolated lightning storms focus from Brevard county northward into coastal Volusia county through late tonight with showers also moving inland north of of the trough axis. Deep tropical moisture and trough across the area will focus higher rain chances KLEE-KDAB in the morning hours and then expect sct-nmrs shra/isold tsra to develop in the warm sector in the afternoon to the south of the low level trough axis. Trough axis across the waters will lift toward the nrn marine zones through the night with onshore flow continuing north of the boundary.