Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Very little change has been made to tonight's forecast as high pressure and dry air remain entrenched over our area, leading to clear skies through tonight and tomorrow morning. Under ideal radiational cooling conditions, inland overnight lows will dip into the mid-upper 40s, except across parts of the FL Panhandle and downtown Tallahassee (urban heat island effect) where lows in the lower 50s are possible.
1147 PM EDT Tue Oct 31 2017 Backing of the low level flow to the south over the next couple of hours will lift lingering lake strato cu based around 5k ft north of MBS within the first hour or two of TAF issuance. Low to mid level moisture now advecting into the lower Ohio Valley will be on the increase Wed afternoon and evening within strengthening southerly low level flow. The approach of a warm front late Wed afternoon/evening will then lead to a steady backing of the winds to the southeast.
951 PM EDT Tue Oct 31 2017 High pressure will generally clear skies to the south of Lake Ontario tonight, with just a few showers lingering over north central New York this evening.
1016 PM EDT Tue Oct 31 2017 Currently - High pressure centered over northern Florida is being reinforced by another high swinging into the southeastern United States. Gentle to moderate northeast to east breezes will prevail across Keys waters overnight due to high pressure over the southeastern United States.
1145 PM EDT Tue Oct 31 2017 A warm front will move into the Ohio Valley on Wednesday and push through Pennsylvania Wednesday night.
715 PM EDT Tue Oct 31 2017 A weak back-door cold front that will settle into North Carolina tonight. The front will quickly retreat north of our region Wednesday, with following warm high pressure extending across the eastern states through the end of the week. Meanwhile, weak high pressure across the area will briefly be reinforced by a secondary transitory northern stream parent high center that will slide east across the Mid-Atlantic states tonight through early Wednesday. Lows generally in the low to middle 40s, with some upper 30s possible in typically cooler spots.
1054 PM EDT Tue Oct 31 2017 High pressure builds from the southwest tonight before moving offshore on Wednesday.
Weak high pressure will then hold over the region through the week. With high pressure in place, skies are expected to remain clear overnight. Lows generally in the lower to mid 40s expected.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 66 54 69 59 / 10 30 20 20 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 66 52 71 55 / 10 20 20 20 Oak Ridge, TN 65 52 70 55 / 10 20 20 20 Tri Cities Airport, TN 67 47 71 49 / 10 10 10 10.
949 PM MDT Tue Oct 31 2017 Upper level analysis has weak ridging off the West Coast with broad trof across the central CONUS. At the surface, high pressure has shifted into the mid-Mississippi valley with low pressure developing across north-central Montana. A cold front will arrive early Wednesday and move southeast across the CWA during the day. Snowfall will mostly be limited to the higher elevations of northeast WY, the Black Hills, and far northwest SD. The higher elevations of the northern Black Hills and WY Black Hills will likely see an inch or two of snowfall later tonight into Wednesday morning.
722 PM EDT Tue Oct 31 2017 High pressure will generally clear skies to the south of Lake Ontario tonight, with just a few showers lingering over north central New York this evening.
18Z surface data has high pressure across northwest Missouri with a developing storm system in southeast Colorado. Right now it looks like the atmosphere eventually saturates around mid-afternoon with light rain developing in the highway 20 corridor west of Dubuque. The better chances for seeing any rain are in the highway 20 corridor.
954 PM CDT Tue Oct 31 2017 Near term model guidance suggests that a wave of low pressure will gradually become more defined across southeastern TX overnight, beneath the entrance region of high-level speed max spreading across the southern Plains/lower MS Valley. Pattern change will take effect beginning Wednesday as the aforementioned upper-level trough will slowly move east into the Mississippi Valley.
A cold front moves through the region this weekend likely bringing rain.
However if the front drifts eastwards a bit throughout the night increasing the low level convergence, this could lead to more widespread conv.
703 PM MDT Tue Oct 31 2017 Latest upper air analysis shows the long wave trough moving onto the Plains. Ahead of the trough light snow was continuing to move east. Lows will be a few degrees warmer than last night due to warm air advection.
800 PM EDT Tue Oct 31 2017 Dry conditions will give way to precipitation moving into the region late tonight into Wednesday as a warm front lifts northward.
1229 AM EDT Wed Nov 1 2017 Rain is expected today and tonight with a warm front.
East Central Florida Forecast Discussion 816 PM EDT Tue Oct 31 2017 A considerable swath of mid-upr level dry air remains over the region with high pressure centered over the SE states and offshore the SE coast. Weak high pressure will continue to build north of the area with light N/NE winds becoming near calm this evening and overnight. Weak high pressure continues across the region with generally light N/NE winds veering a bit more to ENE/E.
The high wind warning for the Front Range mtn and fthl zones 33-36 is now in effect, and runs through 06z tomorrow night. The High Wind Warning statement was updated at 0116Z this evening. High amplitude flow across the continental US with broad trough across the central US and high pressure centered off Canadian Pacific coast.
A lee side trough deepening along the Front Range and strong winds aloft will allow mountain waves to persist all night over northern NM.
741 PM EDT Fri May 26 2017 Low pressure over the Southern plains will will track across the upper Ohio Valley late tonight into Saturday morning.
In the low levels of the atmosphere, a feeble Atlantic ridge of high pressure will extend across Central Florida overnight. In the mid levels of the atmosphere, an area of high pressure will be centered over the northern Gulf of Mexico tonight. In the upper levels of the atmosphere, a weak trough of low pressure will be located over the Bahamas overnight.
Most areas will be dry with the exception of Slight chances for showers in northeast Lincoln County and the high peaks of the Sierra. Winds will generally decrease overnight with a shift to the north expected across southern Nevada and northern Mohave County as a weak cold front pushes into the area from the north.
100 AM EDT Sat May 27 2017 Low pressure over the Southern plains will will track across the upper Ohio Valley late tonight into Saturday morning.
An upper level low pressure area spinning over the Rockies late this afternoon already spreading clouds and some rainfall into southwest SD.
This low stratus and fog will remain in the coastal waters and move inland at the coast this evening, remaining through the early morning.
946 PM EDT Fri May 26 2017 Low pressure over the Southern plains will will track across the upper Ohio Valley late tonight into Saturday morning.
904 PM EDT Fri May 26 2017 High pressure ridge will stretch across Southern Florida Tonight, yielding continued clear skies and light winds.
With high pressure to the east, there are indications that low stratus will be forming during the pre-dawn hours Saturday AM with cig bases potentially lowering to IFR categories. Lows will range from the low to mid 60s far inland to the upper 60s/near 70 at the coast. Another dry day expected Saturday as upper level ridging maintains its grip on the Gulf and northern Gulf coast. Saturday afternoon is expected to be 4-5 degrees warmer than this afternoon as anomalously warm 850 mb temps move into the region.
622 PM CDT Fri May 26 2017 An upper level low pressure area spinning over the Rockies late this afternoon already spreading clouds and some rainfall into southwest SD.
Areas of fog are likely to form across the higher terrain overnight.
/issued 350 PM CDT Fri May 26 2017/ (Tonight and Saturday) An upper level ridge over eastern Mexico, South Texas and the adjacent Gulf of Mexico will remain in place through Saturday. An upper trough will from the Intermountain West into the central Rockies. Temperatures will be hot again Saturday, as low-level thermal ridge remains strong across our area.
A cold front will move through the GUY and DHT TAF sites around mid day Saturday switching the winds around to the north. AMA should remain gusty out of the west as the cold front may not make it there until just beyond this forecast. Localized region of higher instability with trof may support isolated thunderstorms this evening in northeast part of forecast area. On Saturday, surface wave expected to develop, with cold developing cold front dropping into northern sections.
915 PM EDT Fri May 26 2017 The dry pressure ridge to our south will dominate through Saturday.
A surface trof of low pressure was moving into St. A line of showers and isolated thunderstorms were occurring along an ahead of this trof. The surface trof will have moved east of the region shortly thereafter, and with the loss of diurnal heating, no additional precipitation is expected.
Tonight high pressure will gradually settle southeast over the area with drier air moving south out of Nebraska this evening. Overnight convection that develops in the Western High Plains with southeast upslope flow is forecast to move off the high plains and gradually move east overnight. Lows tonight should cool back into the lower 60s. By Saturday night, the deep mid-level trough will be tracking eastward across the CWA, which will help to push the surface cold front east of the area by late evening.
828 PM EDT Fri May 26 2017 A weak cold front will approach from the west tonight, and will slowly sink south through the region late Saturday afternoon through Saturday night, bringing scattered showers and thunderstorms.
430 PM PDT Fri May 26 2017 High pressure builds over the region this weekend.
As the low level jet strengthens across our area tonight, believe some speed convergence could produce isolated showers over the north.
/Issued 408 PM CDT Fri May 26 2017/ Currently a weak frontal boundary extends along the Interstate 44 corridor with dewpoints south of the boundary rising into the low to mid 70s. This environment will remain capped through much of the day with convective initiation focusing on the cold front and dryline boundaries.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 67 85 69 85 / 10 40 40 70 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 66 83 66 82 / 10 30 50 70 Oak Ridge, TN 65 82 66 82 / 10 40 50 70 Tri Cities Airport, TN 59 80 64 80 / 10 50 50 70.
The low stratus should dissipate/shift eastward after 16Z.
Models are in pretty good agreement aloft, showing the system off to our WNW pushing east through the period, with the mid-level trough axis moving through the panhandle late tonight, and into the CWA by around midday tomorrow. Some models suggest there may be a bit of a lull between this activity and the next round more closely tied to the mid level trough axis, showing it possibly being closer to sunrise before its getting into NWrn portions of the CWA. Kept the higher PoPs centered over NWrn areas late tonight, then through tomorrow when the trough is swinging through, have more widespread likely PoPs going, mainly during the 12-18Z timeframe.
The high center continues to move southeast as the strong frontal system heads to the southeast United States.
917 PM EDT Fri May 26 2017 Advancing low pressure will return rain to the region tonight.
/EC/ Latest satellite imagery showed a general west southwest zonal pattern the the mid to upper levels and southwest flow in the low levels. A front with low pressure was observed across the Southern Plains which brought a tight pressure gradient for some breezy conditions across the delta region. With the extra low level moisture and anomalous low level temps expect highs to be from the upper 80s to the lower 90s. /17/ There will be a warm, muggy start to Saturday night as moisture continues to pool south of an approaching cold front. A deep upper trough associated with a closed low over Canada will continue to trek across the Plains Saturday night.
Remaining showers continue to progress eastward and weaken as their associated low pressure moves into Wyoming. Relatively benign conditions expected as a a ridge works to move over the area. As the ridge amplifies over the Pacific Northwest, temperatures will be 5-10 degrees above seasonal normals, with generally dry conditions.
Short term forecast models bring an elongated area of 500mb energy into NE Utah and NW Colorado overnight and into Saturday morning but conditions are looking quite dry in the lower levels along this front. The trough swings through eastern Utah and western Colorado throughout the day Saturday and ought to bring showers or at least virga along its WSW to ENE axis as it pushes southward.
Less wind and a warming trend are expected this weekend as high pressure builds in from the west.
1211 AM EDT Sat May 27 2017 Advancing low pressure will return rain to the region tonight.
Significant severe thunderstorms expected to develop shortly after 00Z along southward advancing cold front. /Issued 408 PM CDT Fri May 26 2017/ Currently a weak frontal boundary extends along the Interstate 44 corridor with dewpoints south of the boundary rising into the low to mid 70s. This environment will remain capped through much of the day with convective initiation focusing on the cold front and dryline boundaries.
/issued 338 PM CDT Fri May 26 2017/ Temperatures will continue to warm and moisture levels will increase over the weekend as a flat mid level ridge builds over the central Gulf Coast region during the period. Meanwhile, an upper low/trough will move out of south central Canada and into the upper Mississippi Valley late in the weekend and translate eastward across the Great Lakes region and into the northeast conus through the middle of the week.
811 PM EDT Fri May 26 2017 A period of showers and thunderstorms is expected mainly this evening across the area along and north of a warm front and area of low pressure area tracking east.
If this secondary thunderstorm complex develops a massive cold pool, it would probably act to speed up the effective cold frontal zone, which may reduce afternoon severe chances.
858 PM PDT Fri May 26 2017 Night and morning low clouds and fog are expected for the coast and some valleys trough next Friday.
This should all slowly come to an end with some stabilization after dark and the southerly trough moving east. The low moving through Wyoming today will continue to move east, skirting just south of the area tonight. The best chances will be over the higher terrain.
The mostly clear skies come courtesy of a strong long wave ridge centered offshore along 130W. This ridge will move slowly east.
/issued 936 PM CDT Fri May 26 2017/ Southerly winds continue over the forecast area this evening, as the region is located between high pressure centered over Florida and one low pressure system over Illinois and another low over North Texas. The surface winds off the Gulf bringing in plenty of moisture with dew points in the low to mid 70s, and PWAT value on 27/00Z upper air sounding from KLCH at 1. However, best moisture confined to the lowest layers, with Mean RH in the low levels at 82 percent compared to 24 percent in the mid levels, as a decent 3C degree cap is noted above 5k feet. With the onshore flow, seeing dewpoints on the increase, in the lower 70s now.
917 PM EDT Fri May 26 2017 Low pressure will move east, south of Nova Scotia tonight.
936 PM CDT Fri May 26 2017 Southerly winds continue over the forecast area this evening, as the region is located between high pressure centered over Florida and one low pressure system over Illinois and another low over North Texas. The surface winds off the Gulf bringing in plenty of moisture with dew points in the low to mid 70s, and PWAT value on 27/00Z upper air sounding from KLCH at 1. However, best moisture confined to the lowest layers, with Mean RH in the low levels at 82 percent compared to 24 percent in the mid levels, as a decent 3C degree cap is noted above 5k feet. With the onshore flow, seeing dewpoints on the increase, in the lower 70s now.
This will occur as a mid level ridge begins to build overhead and replace the zonal flow aloft.
914 PM MDT Fri Sep 15 2017 Upper trof over northern rockies and associated jet streak and cold front will move across Northern Colorado this evening and overnight. Already, cold front just moving into Northern sections of the Denver area with winds shifting to the North and Northeast at 15 to 25 mph. Only minor changes at this time for cloud cover, slightly cooler temperatures tonight and Saturday, and a little more wind behind the front during the night. There is a band of moisture with the trough that should bring scattered showers to the central mountains, and a better organized batch of showers to areas north of Berthoud Pass. Meanwhile a cold front will move across northeastern Colorado this evening. If that happens more slowly it will be cooler.
755 PM EDT Fri Sep 15 2017 Weak high pressure over the region will remain in place through the weekend. A lee trough within a very weak surface pattern east of the Appalachians will get overwhelmed by both high pressure over the central Appalachians and the cyclonic flow around Jose.
1001 PM EDT Fri Sep 15 2017 Weak high pressure will persist through Saturday.
1016 PM EDT Fri Sep 15 2017 High pressure will provide our region with beautiful weather through the weekend.
1128 PM EDT Fri Sep 15 2017 A large 500 hPa ridge with dominate our weather over the next 8 days. The only fly in the ointment is the trough and low pressure associated with Jose.
639 PM CDT Fri Sep 15 2017 The cold front is currently sitting off to the northwest of the forecast area. The higher resolution guidance indicates the potential for thunderstorm development along the moisture gradient in south central Nebraska/north central Kansas around 6-7pm tonight. Saturday: The cold front is expected to bisect the forecast area during the day tomorrow before it fully pushes southeast of the forecast area during the afternoon hours. Low stratus is expected to be present behind the front for a majority of Nebraska and with the combination of cooler air and clouds, highs tomorrow will be cooler.
Overnight lows appear on track with temps in the lower/middle 70s inland with upper 70s along the immediate coast. The low clouds and fog will persist until the mid morning hours before mixing out.
1251 AM EDT Sat Sep 16 2017 High pressure builds in overnight. A cold front will approach from the north on Saturday and stall over the area by Saturday evening.
High pressure across the area will remain in place through the weekend along with warm temperatures and light winds. Tonight will remain dry with high pressure in place across the area. High pressure aloft will dominate the weather pattern across the Southeast U.
816 PM EDT Fri Sep 15 2017 Another day with the stalled front and trough across the area. Guidance continues to hold onto the dominant upper level ridge across the eastern CONUS through the weekend; however, there continues to be some nudging to the east which could bring the upstream trough further east towards the Upper Peninsula.
Warmer weather has returned to the mid state, and looks to stick around through the duration of the forecast.
748 PM EDT Fri Sep 15 2017 Weak high pressure over the region will remain in place through the weekend. A lee trough within a very weak surface pattern east of the Appalachians will get overwhelmed by both high pressure over the central Appalachians and the cyclonic flow around Jose.
759 PM EDT Fri Sep 15 2017 High pressure will bring mainly fair weather and mild temperatures to our region through the weekend. Most of the area will be dry but once again, a weak upper level trough combined with surface heating will lead to some isolated to scattered afternoon showers and storms over northeast PA into the western Catskills. In general, rain-free conditions and fairly warm temperatures are expected this period over CNY/NEPA, as an upper ridge starts to build over the northeastern states.
The early afternoon water vapor satellite imagery featured a deep longwave trough positioned over the inter-mountain west with multiple subtle perturbations rotating around its base and ejecting to the northeast. Over the next 24 hours, the upper level longwave will pivot ENE into the western Dakotas as a 90 kt jet streak wraps around the base of the trough. This will help push the cold front southeastward during the day tomorrow, approaching Concordia by the mid to late afternoon.
/Issued 318 PM EDT Fri Sep 15 2017/ Weak high pressure remains over the area, but upper level disturbance moving across south Georgia tomorrow will provide enough focus and moisture to produce isolated to scattered precipitation.
638 PM CDT Fri Sep 15 2017 High pressure dominates the area ahead of low pressure system currently centered over NE. Overnight lows will be a few degrees warmer than last night due to increasing low-level moisture and persistent southerly flow. An upper ridge axis will be centered through the lower-mid MS Valley early Saturday evening. This ridge will get suppressed slightly southward on Saturday night as a short wave tracks e/ne through the mid-upper MS Valley.
The 00Z sounding was similar to the one this morning with the bulk of the moisture in the lowest levels and drier air in the mid and upper levels. Southeast to south winds prevailed in the lower levels, while generally southwest winds were observed in the mid and upper levels.
1003 PM EDT Fri Sep 15 2017 Forecast remains on track with high pressure in control. Chattanooga Airport, TN 63 86 65 86 / 0 0 0 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 60 84 62 84 / 0 0 0 10 Oak Ridge, TN 60 85 62 85 / 0 0 0 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 56 82 58 82 / 0 0 0 10.
1141 PM CDT Fri Sep 15 2017 High pressure dominates the area ahead of low pressure system currently centered over NE. Overnight lows will be a few degrees warmer than last night due to increasing low-level moisture and persistent southerly flow. An upper ridge axis will be centered through the lower-mid MS Valley early Saturday evening. This ridge will get suppressed slightly southward on Saturday night as a short wave tracks e/ne through the mid-upper MS Valley.
This was producing surface cyclogenesis over the Central Plains with increasing moisture transport ahead of this low into our area. low pressure will lift northeast across western MN, drawing the surface cold front a bit further east into central MN through northwest IA. Otherwise, look for a rather muggy overnight with lows in the middle/upper 60s with dew points in the lower 60s. The cold front oozes ever so slowly eastward toward the area on Saturday, extending from northwest WI through south central MN by late in the afternoon. Vigorous mid-level trough rotating northeast into the eastern Dakotas/northwest MN drives the surface cold front across our area Saturday evening/overnight.
705 PM EDT Fri Sep 15 2017 Quiet weather will persist through the first part of the weekend as a ridge of high pressure is slow to depart to the east.
Overnight lows will remain in the low 80s. Can't complete rule out upstream convection across the Peninsula moving southwest into marine areas north of the Lower Keys this evening.
738 PM EDT Fri Sep 15 2017 A large 500 hPa ridge with dominate our weather over the next 8 days. The only fly in the ointment is the trough and low pressure associated with Jose.
609 PM CDT Fri Sep 15 2017 Developing mean upper level troughing across the western U. More widespread thunderstorms are likely to develop Saturday afternoon along and ahead of a cold front that will be pushing into far eastern Nebraska and southwest Iowa. Storms will likely expand to the south and east across much of the area Saturday night before the cold front eventually stalls somewhere near or just south of I-70.
The low clouds and fog will persist until the mid morning hours before mixing out.
659 PM CDT Fri Sep 15 2017 Another quiet night area wide as high pressure remains anchored over the southern U.