Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
354 AM CDT Fri Jun 12 2020 An upper level ridge will continue to build into the High Plains region Friday, with a trof across the eastern CONUS and a strong upper level trof across the western CONUS. Dry conditions will be expected for Friday as the upper level high pressure moves in limiting moisture to the area.
1151 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2020 Strong upper level ridging will continue to build into the central Plains through Friday night.
It will be another warm day with many areas seeing daytime temperatures about 5 degrees warmer than yesterday. Valley highs are expected in the mid 80s to the low 90s.
A cold front will push through the area by late Friday night setting the stage for a much cooler and wetter weather pattern. I expected this activity to drift to the north overnight with additional showers and embedded thunderstorms setting up along the Cascades as an upper-level trough approaches. Clearing over SE WA and NC Idaho tomorrow will allow for the atmosphere to destabilize and as the trough and associated cold front swings inland, we will see the potential for strong to severe thunderstorms with damaging winds and large hail. /sb 06Z: Moisture and instability being drawn into the region ahead of an approaching trough will bring widely scattered showers and thunderstorms through the forecast period. A cold front will slowly work west to east through the region Friday evening with additional showers and some weaker thunderstorms.
High pressure between the Great Lakes and Hudson Bay will provide a cool easterly flow into Friday night. Expect scattered mid to high clouds Friday with highs ranging from the mid 60s in central MN to the lower 80s southwest of the Minnesota River. As the high continues eastward and the ridge over the Plains builds, mid level frontogenesis from northwest to southeast will develop Friday night from west central to southeast MN.
117 AM EDT Fri Jun 12 2020 High pressure continues building northeastward up the Ohio Valley and into our region through tonight. On Friday, a cold front sweeps southeastward through our region as low pressure moves northeastward and away from Labrador. Canadian high pressure follows the front Friday night through this weekend. Aloft, we remain under a longwave trough. At the surface, a cold front should sweep southeastward through our area between roughly daybreak and noon.
ABM Chattanooga Airport, TN 86 64 88 62 85 / 0 0 0 0 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 84 61 85 59 82 / 0 0 0 0 20 Oak Ridge, TN 84 61 85 58 81 / 0 0 0 0 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 81 55 81 55 77 / 0 0 10 10 40.
The remainder of the area should be mostly sunny to partly cloudy as broad ridging to the west keeps us dry.
1051 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2020 Water vapor imagery with 500mb heights overlaid shows very dry and upper levels with an upper ridge building over the Intermountain West.
257 AM EDT Fri Jun 12 2020 A meridional pattern remains in place in the upper levels with a ridge over the Rockies and a trough over the Great Lakes. In the lower levels, high pressure will remain centered over the Ozarks today. Highs should have no trouble reaching the low to mid 80s.
The hot and dry conditions will persist into the weekend, but some slight cooling will drop temperatures closer to normal readings as a low pressure system passes by to the north and west.
Upper ridging continues to build in tonight and Friday.
Upper level ridging will begin to strengthen over the Plains Friday, resulting in another day of sunshine and temperatures in the 80s.
The most significant source of forcing will be in the low levels near the surface with significant frontogenesis. In addition we will see a glancing blow from the mid level trough and potentially some divergence from the upper level jet as well.
144 AM EDT Fri Jun 12 2020 High pressure building in from the southern plains will bring dry conditions today.
Did make some minor adjustments to the low temperatures, incorporating the latest trends in observations. High pressure will build south into the region tonight with winds becoming light and variable. This fog should burn off quickly Friday morning, with another beautiful June day expected as temperatures warm into the low 80s under sunny skies.
As a result, cooler low temperatures in the mid to upper 50s will be located across the eastern Ozarks while low temperatures will be in the low 60s across extreme SE Kansas and western Missouri. A mid-level ridge will continue to build over the Rocky Mountains today, leaving our region in a northwest flow pattern aloft. Temperatures will be a few degrees warmer today, with highs in the mid to upper 80s this afternoon and lows in the low 60s tonight. We remain in northwest flow aloft into this weekend as the mid- level ridge slowly progresses across the Great Plains.
Ridging continues to build into the region which will keep the subsidence in the mid and low levels for the foreseeable future. Friday looks much the same and is likely to be a little warmer.
302 AM CDT Fri Jun 12 2020 Early this morning a broad upper level trough axis extended from east central Canada, south-southeast across the Great Lakes States into the middle TN River valley. Today through Tonight, The broad upper level trough axis will lift northeast across eastern Canada and the northeast and mid Atlantic states. An upper level ridge axis across the west central US will shift east into the high Plains and begin to amplify Tonight.
/issued 205 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2020/ Winds will begin to decrease after sunset and drop to under 10 mph out of the south thanks to surface ridging. As we are underneath an upper ridge storms over central and south central NM will stay off to our west and northwest. The upper ridge will keep a grip on the region tomorrow keeping storms out of the area once again. Winds will be out of the south to southeast around 15-20 mph tomorrow afternoon in response to another lee trough. Temperatures should roughly be the same as today, maybe a degree or two warmer, as thicknesses remain nearly steady. The upper level ridge remains to our west over much of western CONUS.
/issued 245 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2020/ WV imagery shows that the big ridge has arrived, and will be the prevailing driver of the wx around here for, say, the next 3 months or so. An exception will be this afternoon, where afternoon heating and upslope flow is resulting in high-based convection developing over the higher terrain.
High pressure will then provide dry conditions for the rest of the day under partly to mostly sunny skies. Another cool night is expected tonight with high pressure over much of the Northland providing good radiational cooling.
/Tonight through Thursday/ Synoptic Overview: Negatively tilted trough continues to sweep across the Great Lakes Region into the eastern Canadian Provinces. Behind it, amplified ridge has been building, with ridge axis working its way through the Rockies.
At 20Z a mid level ridge was located over the Rockies while an upper trough was located over Ontario. For tonight, dry weather is expected to continue with convection confined to the high plains into southwest Kansas. Temperatures tonight will fall into the low to mid 60s with a light southerly wind. Expect high temperatures to be a degree or two warmer than today.
326 AM CDT Fri Jun 12 2020 Today will be a rather pleasant day, as a ridge builds overhead and a high pressure system slides southeastwards from Canada towards the Great Lakes. A subtle and weak cold boundary will encroach upon southwestern MN during the afternoon hours from the east, limiting afternoon temperatures to the lower 80s while the rest of the area will be reaching the mid to upper 80s despite some cumulus clouds developing. Chances are not zero, so have increased pops into the lower 20s to account for this slight chance during the early morning hours.
1143 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2020 High pressure building into the mid Mississippi River Valley will provide dry weather and seasonable temperatures for the next several days. A cold front crossing the area Friday night should cool temperatures a few degrees for the weekend. High pressure over the lower Mississippi Valley region will be the main influence on central IL weather tonight and Friday, keeping conditions dry and blocking any significant moisture transport into the area. A cold front will push into the area from the north Friday night, lowering temperatures a few degrees for the weekend.
Looks like there will be more afternoon cumulus compared to today, but still plenty of sun and increasing low-level warm air advection, resulting in highs in the lower to mid 80s.
Highs today will be slightly warmer than Thursday, and about 5 degrees above normal.
/Issued 355 AM CDT Fri Jun 12 2020/ Showers being helped along by an upper level short wave trough and a low level jet should decrease as we go through the morning hours. More showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop across northeast New Mexico this afternoon in association with another upper level short wave trough. These showers and storms should spread across the northern CWA as the short wave trough moves east through the upper level ridge. Do not think showers and storms will last past midnight as the ridge will start to dominate the picture. Will keep Saturday dry as the upper level ridge starts to build over the Plains.
A trough moving inland will bring gusty southwest to west winds to the mountains and deserts.
341 AM MDT Fri Jun 12 2020 An upper ridge will continue to build over the state to bring another day of warming temperatures. 700mb readings increase by around 3 degrees C, which should bring the highs into the upper 80s to low 90s over the plains, and into the 60s and 70s in the higher terrain. Warm advection, deepening surface lee trough and some partly cloudy skies overnight will result in warmer overnight temperatures.
539 AM EDT Fri Jun 12 2020 An amplifying level trough over the Great Lakes will slowly shift eastward across Pennsylvania this weekend maintaining dry conditions.
A low pressure system moving onto the west coast this morning will cause an increase in southwesterly winds over the next few days resulting in dangerous fire weather conditions for much of northern Arizona. On Saturday - Winds will strengthen as the trough approaches, with gusts in the 35 to 50 mph range affecting a larger portion of northern Arizona. The only change made with this forecast package to the warning for was to add the lower elevations of Yavapai County including the Verde Valley.
(See discussion below) 79 Previous Discussion: /Tonight through Friday/ Upper level high pressure will remain anchored west of the region through the weekend, keeping dry and subsident air in place across North and Central Texas. 500 mb analysis reveals a sprawling ridge aloft extending from the Rio Grande Valley through the Southwest and into the Rocky Mountains.
This wl occur as an upr lvl trof sets up along the E coast, resulting in a NW flow aloft acrs the Mid-South.
340 AM MDT Fri Jun 12 2020 Ridge of high pressure that has brought warmth to the area will begin to shift east away from the region today as an area of low pressure moves into the Pacific Coast later today. Before this occurs on Saturday however, we will have one more warm day across the area with temps looking to reach or exceed 90 across the lower Snake Plain and Magic Valley.
614 AM CDT Fri Jun 12 2020 An upper level ridge will continue to build into the High Plains region Friday, with a trof across the eastern CONUS and a strong upper level trof across the western CONUS. Dry conditions will be expected for Friday as the upper level high pressure moves in limiting moisture to the area. The upper level high will be centered over the High Plains on Saturday. However, fire weather concerns are expected to remain low despite the high winds and low RH as recent rainfall should keep the fuels green.
Even warmer as the ridge aloft builds overhead and with warm temperatures aloft and limited low and mid level moisture, no precipitation is expected. As the ridge axis aloft moves off to our east, the flow aloft will be south southwest, helping to advect in increasing low and mid level moisture.
Mid level flow will become more northwesterly on with time as a mid/upper level ridge of high pressure builds over the Plains and a secondary trof digs southeast through the Great Lakes region. However, with so much dry air in the lower levels, do not believe much, if any, precip would reach the ground.
Some guidance wants to produce showers near the Minnesota River valley tonight, but given the low level dry air and lack of strong forcing, not expected much if anything. Otherwise, conditions on Saturday look similar with high pressure remaining in place to our northeast, keeping seasonably cool temperatures and dry weather in place for our area. Meanwhile, the ridge will shift and build northeast into Ontario due to strong, sustained 850 mb WAA.
Otherwise, temperatures will especially the low temperatures which could dip into the upper 50s by early Saturday morning in some of the normally cooler locations over north central MS. The predominant feature controlling our weather is a mid/upper level ridge where our region is on the eastern periphery.
609 AM CDT Fri Jun 12 2020 Today will be a rather pleasant day, as a ridge builds overhead and a high pressure system slides southeastwards from Canada towards the Great Lakes. A subtle and weak cold boundary will encroach upon southwestern MN during the afternoon hours from the east, limiting afternoon temperatures to the lower 80s while the rest of the area will be reaching the mid to upper 80s despite some cumulus clouds developing. Chances are not zero, so have increased pops into the lower 20s to account for this slight chance during the early morning hours.
Models start in very good agreement with a deep upper level trough deepening to a closed upper low in northern California this afternoon, before opening again and shifting east of the region by Saturday morning. As the upper trough shifts east the area of instability will shift eastward as well to the east side late in the afternoon into the evening.
South Texas will be under the control of high pressure at the surface and aloft. /issued 321 AM CDT Fri Jun 12 2020/ SHORT TERM (Today through Saturday): 500mb ridge axis remains anchored over West Texas with a 250mb ridge in the same vicinity expected to strengthen Saturday. At the surface, 1025+ high pressure extending from Texas to the Midwest maintains the relatively dry gentle to moderate northeast-east flow. Otherwise, the mostly sunny conditions will push comfortable morning lows in the mid 60s-low 70s into the low to mid 90s Friday and Saturday afternoon which is where maximums should be this time of year.
Our biggest day is shaping up to be Saturday afternoon, with the current H7 theta-e ridge axis currently nosing from Chihuahua into southern and central New Mexico shifting a little eastward as it gets pinched off.
332 AM PDT Fri Jun 12 2020 Cooler temperatures, breezy winds, and shower/thunderstorm chances today and Saturday.
Cooler on Saturday with showers and thunderstorms redeveloping mainly along and north of the I80 corridor. Trough energy currently centered along the west coast will move onshore today leading to strong southerly flow across NV. Later this afternoon and into this evening as the trough axis moves into NV moist and moderately unstable air will spread west to east across northern and portions of central NV leading to shower and thunderstorm activity. Cooler on Saturday with shower and thunderstorm activity redeveloping across portions of Humboldt and Elko Counties.
ABM Chattanooga Airport, TN 86 63 88 63 88 / 0 0 0 10 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 84 60 86 60 84 / 0 0 0 10 20 Oak Ridge, TN 85 61 85 60 84 / 0 0 0 10 20 Tri Cities Airport, TN 82 55 82 56 79 / 0 0 10 20 50.
A meridional pattern remains in place in the upper levels with a ridge over the Rockies and a trough over the Great Lakes. In the lower levels, high pressure will remain centered over the Ozarks today.
Dry and mostly clear conditions will continue through the short term across South-Central Texas on the eastern periphery of the upper level ridge.
Upper air analysis showed a trough axis from Hudson Bay to Pennsylvania, creating a northwest flow over the Plains and west flow over Tennessee Valley. A broad ridge was located over New Mexico to Montana creating a light northwest flow over the Lower Mississippi Valley. Upper level trough will shift east through Saturday.
A strong low pressure system will lead to strong and gusty south winds across the region today.
342 AM MDT Fri Jun 12 2020 Upper ridge axis has slide eastward, into the High Plains. Warm air advection continues early this morning, which will result in temps 5 to 10 degrees warmer than yesterday. Many locations across the northeast WY and western SD plains will reach into the low 90s. Southerly flow increases heading into Saturday, as low pressure deepens across eastern MT to central WY. With upper flow becoming more southwesterly ahead of the approaching trough, there may be some marginal upper level support.
Upper ridging builds overhead and mostly pleasant conditions can be expected for today. With the upper ridge continuing to build over the area the next couple days, our warming trend is expected to continue, with highs in the upper 70s over the Coteau, and nearing 90 for central SD.
Mostly cloudy to cloudy skies will limit highs today to the mid 80s whereas back behind the front highs are expected into the low 90s.
Early this morning a broad upper level trough axis extended from east central Canada, south-southeast across the Great Lakes States into the middle TN River valley. Today through Tonight, The broad upper level trough axis will lift northeast across eastern Canada and the northeast and mid Atlantic states. An upper level ridge axis across the west central US will shift east into the high Plains and begin to amplify Tonight.
419 AM PDT Fri Jun 12 2020 A low pressure system will bring cooler temperatures through the weekend with a few showers and possible thunderstorms over the Sierra from Fresno County northward Friday afternoon and evening.
700 AM EDT Fri Jun 12 2020 An amplifying upper level trough over the Great Lakes will slowly shift eastward across Pennsylvania this weekend maintaining dry conditions.
617 AM CDT Fri Jun 12 2020 Under the influence of both a surface and upper-level ridge of high pressure, VFR conditions to prevail across area terminals through the terminal forecast period ending 13/12Z. /Today through Saturday/ Surface and upper-level ridge to prevail through the short-term period ending Saturday afternoon. With the exception of thin passing cirrus, upper-ridge will maintain mostly clear skies areawide.
Spectacular mid-June morning across Middle Tennessee with crystal clear skies and unusually low RH with dewpoints down into the low 50s and even upper 40s. VFR conditions expected for this TAF cycle as high pressure dominates the region.
A long wave trough that is nearly sheared is poised off the US west coast this morning. As the upper trough shifts east the area of greatest instability will shift eastward as well to the east side late in the afternoon into the evening. The trough will hang together, barely. The nearly sheared low will move onshore this evening and the residual trough will move onshore Saturday morning. Short waves moving down the backside of the trough will keep shower activity going into Saturday evening.
1242 PM CDT Fri Jun 12 2020 Today will be a rather pleasant day, as a ridge builds overhead and a high pressure system slides southeastwards from Canada towards the Great Lakes. A subtle and weak cold boundary will encroach upon southwestern MN during the afternoon hours from the east, limiting afternoon temperatures to the lower 80s while the rest of the area will be reaching the mid to upper 80s despite some cumulus clouds developing. Chances are not zero, so have increased pops into the lower 20s to account for this slight chance during the early morning hours.
Most areas should remain dry, however, with lows in the low to mid 70s overnight. (Modified Previous Discussion) Ridge axis weakens as upper trough currently over eastern Canada digs southward and develops a cut- off low over OH.
Canadian high pressure is rapidly building into the region in the wake of the final of several successive cold fronts that have ushered in much cooler and drier conditions.
Winds will remain light and variable under region of high pressure, but become more E/NErly by Sat. This wl occur as an upr lvl trof sets up along the E coast, resulting in a NW flow aloft acrs the Mid-South.
High pressure ridging still dominating the area, keeping us warm and dry.
Dry air mass will remain over the region tonight through Saturday night with the mid to upper level ridge axis staying to the west.
1235 PM CDT Fri Jun 12 2020 Upper ridging builds overhead and mostly pleasant conditions can be expected for today. With the upper ridge continuing to build over the area the next couple days, our warming trend is expected to continue, with highs in the upper 70s over the Coteau, and nearing 90 for central SD.
The drier conditions will be very short-lived as troughing sets up aloft over the eastern part of the country and moisture goes back up over Florida. With high pressure centered over the western Atlantic, an easterly wind flow will be the rule through the day until the west coast sea breeze initiates.
The high will be over the region into the weekend continuing the warm and dry weather.
Ridging and high pressure to our west continues to generate north- northeasterly winds which bring mild, dry continental air into the Tennessee Valley.
Tonight and Saturday Quiet conditions return to the region over the course of the short term forecast as high pressure establishes itself and temperatures drop well below normal. Clear skies and light winds will allow temperatures to drop into the lower 30s and possibly upper 20s, which has prompted the frost advisory for northern Wisconsin tonight. It's note worthy that the high pressure center will be near 1033mb during this time, which is near record, just a few days after portions of Wisconsin observed record low pressure from the remnants of Cristobal. Highs will head into the middle to upper 60s, possibly getting back up into the lower 70s.
These warming temperatures are largely thanks to the ridging aloft and increasing southeasterly winds at and near the surface.
251 PM EDT Fri Jun 12 2020 An amplifying upper level trough over the Great Lakes will slowly shift eastward across Pennsylvania this weekend maintaining dry conditions.
319 PM CDT Fri Jun 12 2020 This afternoon high pressure continues to build into the Northland with an upper level ridge over the Intermountain West. Saturday the upper level ridge shifts farther east into the Plains with a stronger pressure gradient beginning to build in from the west. Warmer temperatures will return to the area with highs in the upper 60s. The region will be slightly dry with relative humidities in the lower 30s.
A cold front will push through the area by late Friday night setting the stage for a much cooler and wetter weather pattern.
North & Central Texas will remain sandwiched between an amplified and broad upper ridge anchored over West Texas and New Mexico and a longwave trough across the MS/TN Valleys. With our airmass remaining below normal regarding moisture on Saturday, about the only change expected is the broad upper ridge to our west slowly expanding east with humidity gradually on the rise and highs rising into the mid 90s. 500 mb analysis reveals a sprawling ridge aloft extending from the Rio Grande Valley through the Southwest and into the Rocky Mountains. All D10 terminals will see VFR conditions the next 24 hours as the area remains sandwiched between an amplified upper ridge anchored over W TX and a longwave trough across the MS/TN Valleys.