Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Benign weather Wednesday as high pressure ridge brings VFR conditions through the end of the period.
An upper level trough along the Pacific Northwest coast will keep the Great Basin under a hot southwest flow aloft through much of the week, with moisture remaining over southern and eastern Utah.
A hot subtropical high (500 mb heights +2 standard deviations above normal) has enveloped much of the Cntrl and Srn USA with trofs along the E and W Coasts. This trof will cont E and begin quashing the ridge Fri. The high will retrograde into the Desert SW with fairly zonal flow occurring over the Nrn USA.
1025 PM EDT TUE JUL 19 2016 Deep layer ridging remains centered to the north of our forecast area, maintaining deep easterly flow through the column.
1035 PM MDT TUE JUL 19 2016 Early afternoon WV imagery and RAP upper level analysis show large scale ridge centered over the plains dominating the pattern across the US. Moist monsoonal plume is wrapping around the western extent of ridge into the Rockies. At the surface; low pressure is in place across eastern Colorado with a trough axis extending from northeast Colorado and across northern Kansas. Regarding temperatures/heat indices: Air mass aloft is only expected to become warmer and consensus shows highs 2-4F warmer than today.
1225 AM EDT WED JUL 20 2016 High pressure will build in from the west tonight and will settle offshore south of New England on Wednesday.
829 PM EDT TUE JUL 19 2016 High pressure will build in from the west tonight and will settle offshore south of New England on Wednesday.
640 PM CDT TUE JUL 19 2016 Little change to the going TAFs as a ridge of high pressure is firmly in control of our weather. Water vapor imagery and model analysis reveal that the center of sprawling anticyclone is currently over eastern Oklahoma. Precipitation will be a minimum as ridge remains squarely in place.
/issued 351 PM CDT TUE JUL 19 2016/ Mid-level ridge will continue to dominate the weather through the end of this week with only isolated chances of showers/storms.
High pressure building overhead by the weekend will quash thunderstorm chances and push temperatures about five degrees above normal.
Upper level ridge of high pressure is over the region along with a hot and muggy air mass. Temperatures are currently in the lower 90s with dewpoints in the low to mid 70s. Highs will warm into the low to mid 90s with heat index values in the 100 to 108 range. The upper level ridge of high pressure will remain over the region through the rest of the week into the start of the weekend. Dewpoints may slightly cool each day as little rainfall occurs, but if this occurs temperatures may get a tad warmer which should not affect heat index values each day.
1144 PM CDT TUE JUL 19 2016 High pressure will continue to strengthen its influence over our weather on Wednesday. Warming in the mid-levels and slight drying in the low-levels will lead to very limited afternoon convective coverage, relegated well to the east and south of the TAF sites. This is in response to some increased lower and mid level moisture that has moved in from the east around the southern periphery of the upper ridge. The little disturbance moving through today will be gone by tomorrow with the upper ridge in control of things across the southern Plains. This higher humidity is likely in response to the low/mid level moisture plume and rather deep east-southeast flow.
/Issued 630 PM CDT TUE JUL 19 2016/ For the 00Z TAFS, an upper level ridge of high pressure will persist across the srn high plains through late Wednesday afternoon. A surface trof of low pressure will remain over ern CO and ern NM. /Issued 328 PM CDT TUE JUL 19 2016/ A ridge of high pressure will continue to dictate the weather throughout the forecast period. Starting the second half of the weekend, the ridge will start the deamplify and break down across the south central U.
1126 PM EDT TUE JUL 19 2016 High pressure over the Great Lakes will build southeast across Pennsylvania through Wednesday, then off the Mid Atlantic coast by late week.
Expecting the dominance of the mid/upper level ridge just north of the region, with SE TX/C and S LA remaining in the easterly flow with ample moisture. Do see a modest decrease in precipitable water values as somewhat drier mid-level air filters into the area as anticyclone continue to spin over the south plains. High pressure ridging across the southeast CONUS and adjacent gulf waters will maintain light east to southeast winds through the week.
801 PM EDT TUE JUL 19 2016 High pressure over the Great Lakes will build southeast across Pennsylvania through Wednesday, then off the Mid Atlantic coast by late week.
1003 PM EDT TUE JUL 19 2016 High pressure over the Great Lakes will build southeast across Pennsylvania through Wednesday, then off the Mid Atlantic coast by late week.
Going close to persistence with temps except a tad cooler Wed night due to the drier airmass.
1028 PM EDT TUE JUL 19 2016 High pressure will build in from the west tonight and will settle offshore south of New England on Wednesday.
Quite chilly this morning with colder temps combining with moderate to breezy northerly winds to produce wind chills in the low 30s still at some locations in Lake and Volusia Counties. However, it will remain much cooler than normal, with highs only reaching the 50s this afternoon over much of the region, except low 60s along the Treasure Coast and southern Okeechobee County.
Higher level clouds will spill over the ridge later today. Temps expected to rise above 25 degrees by 9 am, with most of the area above freezing by 10-11 am. Still a rather cool afternoon with highs in the lower to mid 40s. By Monday, the high will be east rain.
A broad area of low pressure was located over the Eastern Pacific this morning, centered well off the Washington/British Columbia coast. At the same time, high pressure aloft was beginning to build over Arizona. Building high pressure will then dominate the weather today with a milder air mass moving in and warmer temperatures. In addition, a cold front will sweep across the area.
538 AM EST Sun Jan 8 2017 Arctic High pressure will move in through Monday, providing cold temperatures. Upper trough axis will push off the coast today with west- northwesterly flow aloft. High pressure centered over the mid Mississippi Valley region will continue to build eastward. The center of the high will be centered over the region tonight with surface winds becoming more northeasterly. High temperatures today will be around 15 to 20 degrees below normal, in the lower 30s to lower 40s. Winds will be light tonight with high pressure settling overhead. The center of high pressure will shift slightly to the northeast with surface winds becoming southerly on the backside of the high Monday afternoon. This will promote temperatures a few degrees warmer than on Sunday, but still around 15 degrees below climatology.
1006 AM EST Sun Jan 8 2017 A weak trough of low pressure moves southeast of the area today as high pressure builds tonight. The high moves east Monday. The combination of an approaching upper level trough and dissipating lake effect streamers advecting southeast will produce at least widely sct snow showers mainly this afternoon into this evening. Trough moves east this evening, and weak ridge builds, with subsidence noted. Once again, leaned toward cooler side of mos. On Monday, another weak upper trough moves through with little fanfare other than some mid and high level clouds during the day.
422 AM PST Sun Jan 8 2017 Warmer and dry today as high pressure over Baja expands northward. A low pressure system moving into California late tonight and Monday will bring rain and strong gusty southwest to west winds to the mountains and deserts.
On Monday with the upper ridge transitioning across the plains, the westerly surface winds should be enough to overcome the effects of the snow cover and partly cloudy skies to bring high temperatures well into the 50s.
645 AM EST Sun Jan 8 2017 High pressure over the Mississippi Valley today will move east over the Mid Atlantic region tonight then off the coast by Monday night.
After a very cold start this morning, with sunny skies, temperatures will warm into the low to mid 30s along and north of I- 20, and upper 30s to lower 40s across the south.
Surface temperatures will slowly rebound to the lower to mid 40s by early to mid afternoon. The upper level trough over the Eastern Seaboard progresses eastward over the Western Atlantic through the day. The Arctic airmass over the region will be slow to modify with highs today only climbing into the low to mid 40s.
929 AM EST Sun Jan 8 2017 Temperatures a little slower to rise above freezing than forecast. Dry and cool conditions will continue today with strong high pressure centered north of the area.
Upper level analysis places modest ridge stretching from the Pacific Northwest towards the Great Basin with trough over the eastern United States. Warmer air tries to nudge over western locations, though this will be tough to do as cold airmass remains well entrenched over the area.
Snow has been piling up by the foot over the highest elevations of the Sierra.
Stormy conditions will also result in gusty ridgetop winds and mountain snow across northwest California. afternoon, the warm front lifted northward last night bringing widespread rain to most of northwest California as of early this morning. In addition to abundant rainfall, the development of a southerly low level jet will bring breezy conditions through the afternoon with strong gusts on exposed ridges and headlands. Higher gusts possible on ridgetops.
Coldest air of the winter season arrived this weekend with this morning temps struggling through the lower to mid 30s as of 930 am. Lows this morning ranged from lower 20s over a few inland areas to the lower 30s along the coast. Beaches from Fernandina Beach southward to southern parts of St Johns County reached around freezing as well. Breezy conditions will continue over the southeast zones due to strong high pressure over the TN Valley creating a moderate pressure gradient from west to east.
633 AM EST Sun Jan 8 2017 Low pressure tracks into the Canadian maritimes as cold high pressure builds today and tonight. The high moves east Monday. Upper level trough approaches the area today, with the trough axis tracking across the northeast during the afternoon hours. At the surface, deepening low pressure departs across the Canadian Maritimes, and another trough moves across New England. Temperatures warm into the 20s, and will lean toward cooler side of mos. Trough moves east this evening, and weak ridge builds, with subsidence noted. Once again, leaned toward cooler side of mos. On Monday, another weak upper trough moves through with little fanfare other than some mid and high level clouds during the day.
There will be warmer air moving in as well above the surface which will lead to some freezing rain from central into northeast Oregon into extreme southeast Washington. Temperatures will slowly moderate through tonight with some areas going slightly above freezing mainly in Oregon. Will maintain all advisories and warnings with this forecast package though it is possible some of them could be canceled a bit early if temperatures warm up above freezing.
522 AM EST Sun Jan 8 2017 Arctic High pressure will move in through Monday, providing cold temperatures. Upper trough axis will push off the coast today with west- northwesterly flow aloft. High pressure centered over the mid Mississippi Valley region will continue to build eastward. The center of the high will be centered over the region tonight with surface winds becoming more northeasterly. High temperatures today will be around 15 to 20 degrees below normal, in the lower 30s to lower 40s. Winds will be light tonight with high pressure settling overhead. The center of high pressure will shift slightly to the northeast with surface winds becoming southerly on the backside of the high Monday afternoon. This will promote temperatures a few degrees warmer than on Sunday, but still around 15 degrees below climatology.
534 AM CST Sun Jan 8 2017 Latest 08z surface analysis indicates high pressure over southern Minnesota into northern Missouri.
Although warmer, overnight lows will still fall into the low/mid 20s over most of the area with a few upper teens possible in the east.
The forecast period starts with a broad upper low over much of Canada centered around the Hudson Bay low. The mixing will lead to slightly warmer temperatures today, but still around 10F-15F below normal. Currently there is a large closed low storm system spinning off Pac-NW and British Columbia coast that is ejecting a significant amount of Pacific moisture into the Sierras and Cascades. Tonight after the ridge axis passes east, an embedded upper disturbance brings the moisture into the modified Arctic air in place locally. Then during the afternoon a small ridge brings a break in the action before the next wave. By late Monday afternoon and evening the next wave/trough will be making its way into our area with the second round of snow.
Light snowfall this morning will transition, in some cold valley locations, to freezing rain. This afternoon temperatures will rise with snow and any freezing rain changing over to simply rain, which will be moderate to heavy in some areas.
Arctic high pressure generally was slowly easing east of the terminals this morning with south winds expected to increase toward 15 kts by 18Z and after. Using a new study of comparing surface dew points at KIAH and ambient temperatures at KDFW around daybreak Monday morning, it appears the KIAH dew points should be a good 5 to 7 degrees warmer than the ambient temperatures up here. /ISSUED 336 AM CST Sun Jan 8 2017/ Sub-freezing temperatures are blanketing the entire forecast area again this morning as an Arctic airmass remains in place across the region.
933 AM EST Sun Jan 8 2017 The axis of a deep upper trough is passing over the Appalachians this morning while a large expanse of greater-than-1040 mb surface pressures lies over the Mississippi, Lower Missouri and Lower Ohio Valleys. The morning radiosonde data from Key West indicated strong cold air advection continues with much stratocumulus trapped below 2500 feet persisting across the lower Keys.
Aside from a chance of snow near those ranges, it will be dry and warmer today with temperatures climbing into the mid 30s to mid 40s. The only change was to add the Laramie Valley and Laramie to the high wind watch as their guidance numbers suggest possible high winds in the valley.
SHORT TERM (Now through Monday): The last of this weeks cold weather is nearly behind us after temperatures this morning bottom out at or below the freezing mark for most locations. Only some coastal locations and areas here in the Lower Valley will stay above freezing. The high pressure that brought this outbreak of cold air will begin to shift eastward today. the lower level winds will follow suit with moisture increasing. Given some convergence/coastal troughing near shore. as broad high pressure over the eastern U. interacts with a a developing low pressure across the Plains States.
High pressure will continue to build across the area through the day. These clouds will prevent the area from warming much this afternoon, with highs expected to remain in the lower 30s. Afternoon temps look to rebound into the lower/mid 40s, with the sly flow in place.
This activity will continue during the day with periods of light snow in northern and central valley locations with better coverage over the higher terrain. The best focus will be across the highlighted areas of the northern and central mountains of western Colorado. In addition, south to southwest winds will increase over the higher terrain and favored north-facing aspects as the gradient increase today as the main storm system moves across California. We do expect the warmer air to mix out across the southern valley locations this afternoon with some warmer temperatures. Snowfall will continue across the high country but expect the intensity to decrease overnight. Precipitation coverage and intensity will increase during the day with snow levels slowly falling to 7000 feet by late afternoon as some cooler air aloft moves over the area.
/issued 427 AM CST Sun Jan 8 2017/ SHORT TERM (Now through Monday): The last of this weeks cold weather is nearly behind us after temperatures this morning bottom out at or below the freezing mark for most locations. Only some coastal locations and areas here in the Lower Valley will stay above freezing. The high pressure that brought this outbreak of cold air will begin to shift eastward today. the lower level winds will follow suit with moisture increasing. Given some convergence/coastal troughing near shore. as broad high pressure over the eastern U. interacts with a a developing low pressure across the Plains States.
Winds across our northwest zones have remained elevated through the overnight amid lee troughing shifting east out of the Rockies, which has helped keep temps from plummeting again under mostly clear skies. Guidance is in relatively good agreement for most locations on the Caprock to climb into the low to mid 50s while cooler air will linger another day in lower lying areas to the east off the Caprock, where highs should stay in mid to upper 40s. Have disregarded NAM output entirely, which is indicating highs in the upper 30s to near 40 for highs later today and wants to produce freezing rain by early this evening, which is not happening.
Most areas will fall to lows in the lower to mid 30s.
404 AM MST Sun Jan 8 2017 Deep NE Pac upper trough will support a splitting stronger impulse into the region, bringing a temporary break in cold arctic air over most of the fa. The main impact from this system will be breezy conds and a period of warmer air this morning. Stronger flow reflection will support a stronger WAA push into the region with many locations over NE WY and the Black Hills warming above freezing tonight. This trough will will support a period of gusty winds on the SD plains, possibly adv winds.
455 AM CST Sun Jan 8 2017 High pressure will dominate through the period with widespread VFR conditions expected.
540 AM CST Sun Jan 8 2017 Cold Arctic high pressure, currently over west central IL, will slide east across the area today with clear skies, light and variable winds, and dry weather. Once the high moves east of the area, winds will become southeasterly late afternoon, and then southerly at night. High temps this afternoon will be a little warmer than yesterday, reaching the middle 20s at most sites. Though a little warmer, it will still be below normal. Tonight's lows will also be warmer from previous nights, falling into the upper teens to around 20. but will quickly change over to all rain after midnight with the push of warmer air into the region.
907 AM EST Sun Jan 8 2017 Arctic High pressure will move in through Monday, providing cold temperatures. High pressure centered over the mid Mississippi Valley region will continue to build eastward. The center of the high will be centered over the region tonight with surface winds becoming more northeasterly. High temperatures today will be around 15 to 20 degrees below normal, in the lower 30s to lower 40s. Winds will be light tonight with high pressure settling overhead. The center of high pressure will shift slightly to the northeast with surface winds becoming southerly on the backside of the high Monday afternoon. This will promote temperatures a few degrees warmer than on Sunday, but still around 15 degrees below climatology.
Cold ground and all the snow remaining in the west side valleys has allowed temperatures to drop back to near freezing this morning, and we've also had dense fog develop. Reports indicate it is icy in spots out there this morning, so we hoisted a freezing fog advisory (PDXNPWMFR). There is some small concern that as rain arrives this morning, there could be a brief period of freezing rain in the valleys due to continued cold ground and cold surface temperatures, but confidence was not high enough to issue any winter headlines. We did mention this in the freezing fog advisory as something to be on the lookout for. As the cold front moves in tonight, snow levels will fall to around 3000 feet.
The very dry 1041mb high pressure system centered over extreme SETX slides eastward today and tonight and this will allow the light northeast winds to turn first east then southeast tonight.
/issued 330 AM CST Sun Jan 8 2017/ Arctic high pressure over the Mid South today will slowly move east later tonight and Monday. Another dry and cold day is anticipated with lingering snow cover and cold airmass helping to keep temperatures near or below freezing again today. A slow warm up is anticipated into Monday as low level southerly flow on the back side of high pressure develops.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 30 18 42 30 / 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 25 11 38 27 / 0 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 29 14 40 28 / 0 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 20 6 36 22 / 10 0 0 0 NC.
Second part of the Pacific storm will move through today with the passage of another warm front. High elevation sites are already above freezing this morning with the lower valleys still in the single digits to teens. Yesterday, these areas did mix down the warm air aloft and reached the low to mid 20s exceeding expectations. Think these areas will likely see more rain today then snow, sleet or freezing rain. Baker City to Ontario to Caldwell could see a period of freezing rain which could leave a thin coating of ice.
952 AM EST Sun Jan 8 2017 Behind the cold front that blew through the region yesterday, cold and dry conditions have settled in, with widespread freezing temperatures being reported for several hours across Levy and Citrus counties, and a few isolated spots farther south also reporting brief sub-freezing temperatures. Model guidance is in good agreement that at least a couple hours of freezing temperatures will be felt in Levy and Citrus counties once again Monday morning. Although freezing temperatures will also be possible over isolated spots in Sumter and Hernando Counties and perhaps a few locations farther south, confidence is not as high in widespread freezing conditions.
This second phase still remains the more concerning portion of this winter storm, as freezing rain and sleet are expected to mix with snow and create an unpredictable and dangerous impact to travelers across the region. Snow amounts will be tricky to predict, since it will all depend on how much freezing rain or sleet we get and how long it persists.
851 AM EDT Mon Apr 10 2017 Stable and dry conditions courtesy of deep layered ridging over the region will support another very pleasant day across the entire forecast area.
A stalling cold frontal boundary in the vicinity of the far northern terminals (within a moistened and increasingly unstable late afternoon atmosphere) will heighten the odds that thunderstorms will develop in the vicinity of the CLL and UTS terminals during the evening into early Tuesday morning hours. /ISSUED 316 AM CDT Mon Apr 10 2017/ All is quiet across the state early this morning, but that is going to change mainly this afternoon and on through tonight and Tuesday as showers and thunderstorms develop along and ahead of a slow moving cold front that will be working its way towards our area. Will continue to carry rain chances on the very low side Tuesday night and beyond as precipitable water values lower and instability decreases with the development of mid/upper level ridging.
1117 AM EDT Mon Apr 10 2017 Warm and breezy conditions will continue today with high pressure situated east of the region. A weak cold front will approach the area tonight and move through on Tuesday bringing some shower and thunderstorm chances to the area. Clouds, precipitation, and the cold front will keep temperatures cooler on Tuesday than today with high temperatures in the 60s to low 70s.
Between the two lows a weak cold front ran across central and northeast Iowa. Late this morning and afternoon, showers and storms are expected to fire along a cold front in eastern Iowa, then progress eastward through early evening.