Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
The overall synoptic pattern doesn't change much for tonight through the day Tuesday, with a large upper-level ridge remaining in place over the Intermountain West states. Moreover, a large dome of high pressure over the southeastern CONUS region will help advect warmer temperatures into the Northland. The ridging will flatten out to become more zonal, but weather conditions aren't expected to change much, with lots of sunshine and dry conditions.
Widespread frost still likely overnight, as most temps go to near or below freezing.
208 PM MST Mon Nov 2 2020 Current surface map places weak trof across the western Dakotas. Upper ridge across the northern Rockies/Plains flattens through the week.
A broad H500 ridge through the central and western U.
High pressure across the region will maintain VFR conditions through the TAF period. High pressure surface and aloft will hold over South Texas during the period. Highs will be 1-3 degrees warmer on Tuesday.
435 PM MST Mon Nov 2 2020 Current surface map places weak trof across the western Dakotas. Upper ridge across the northern Rockies/Plains flattens through the week.
Dry and mild conditions highlight the short term period as the upper ridge really takes hold over the Rockie Mountains and midwest region.
515 PM CST Mon Nov 2 2020 (This evening through Tuesday) Dry and pleasant weather will persist across West Central Texas the next 24 hours, with an upper level short ridge influencing the region. Clear to partly cloudy skies will prevail tonight, with overnight lows in the lower 40s.
541 PM CST Mon Nov 2 2020 High pressure, clear skies, and VFR conditions will continue through the period.
With a lack of cloud cover across the area, tomorrow highs will reach the lower to mid 70s. Light westerly winds remain through Tuesday along with dewpoints ranging from the lower to upper 20s.
/Issued 250 PM EST Mon Nov 2 2020/ Dry and sunny conditions are expected through the short term as high pressure dominates the area. Clear skies overnight will allow northeast Georgia to cool down into the low 30s. A few counties in northwest Georgia will near freezing.
Overnight lows will generally be a few degrees warmer tonight compared to last night, with mostly clear skies. Some moisture aloft, combined with very weak ascent/PVA from the approaching trough will lead to increasing clouds late tonight through tomorrow evening.
This afternoon, a mid-level trough remained across the eastern CONUS with ridging to the west and a closed upper low was present near the California coast. Warm and dry conditions will persist through the end of the week as the ridge axis moves over the Plains.
730 PM EST Mon Nov 2 2020 High pressure will continue to hold over the region tonight and Tuesday with clear skies across the region. Very diverse temperatures expected tonight with lows ranging from the lower to mid 40s across the northern nature coast.
No aviation concerns through this forecast period as high pressure builds over the region, providing near calm winds and mostly clear skies. (Tonight and Tuesday Deep mid to upper lvl trough just off shore the east coast continues to move east today while a ridging extends from the southern plains northeast into the Rockies. Another night of cold temperatures is expected tonight as high pressure near the surface brings clear skies and light winds. On Tuesday, upper lvl heights begin to build ahead of an upper lvl ridge. We start the period with high pressure at the surface and an upper ridge building over the area providing a mostly clear sky and light winds.
426 PM MST Mon Nov 2 2020 An upper level ridge over the region will give way to the cut-off upper level low over SoCal that will weaken to an open wave and cross eastern UT and western CO Tuesday and Tuesday night. There are currently scattered thunderstorms over NW AZ to eastern NV on the leading edge of this upper level low and supported by a modest plume of precipitable water from the eastern Pacific. As the low pressure trough moves east, the precipitable water over our area will increase, but not to the levels farther southwest today. It will be another mild day Tuesday with temperatures nearly the same or a degree or two warmer than today.
Current forecast is on track as latest IR Sat imagery shows clear skies over central Indiana under the influence of that high pressure over the southern U. Temperatures are generally in the low 40s and are still progged to dip into the low to mid 30s overnight with substantial radiational cooling. With temperatures aloft warming, dewpoints a little higher later tonight, and some cirrus moving into place, expect temperatures to be a few degrees warmer than this morning and have lows in the lower to middle 30s. An upper ridge will build over the area Tuesday and Tuesday night. These conditions should allow for mostly sunny skies on Tuesday and highs climbing into the lower 60s despite a cold start to the day.
Deep subsaturated conditions are expected in the lowest 15. Gusty southwest wind is the primary weather element in the forecast for the rest of today and this evening in between low pressure near James Bay and Tennessee Valley high pressure. The James Bay low exits into Quebec and pulls a weak cold front into Lake Huron later tonight with minimal consequence and the benefit of reduced wind across SE Michigan. The boundary proves no match for the upper level ridge building into the northern Plains and associated low level SW flow into the Great Lakes that marks the start of the well advertised mid week warming trend. Limited boundary layer depth in model soundings cap readings from afternoon overachievement however mostly sunny sky helps boost temperatures toward normal highs in the lower to mid 50s.
501 PM CST Mon Nov 2 2020 135 PM CST Currently, deep upper-level troughing is in place across the eastern United States with ridging across the west. Overnight, modest low-level moisture advection from the Plains will gradually raise surface dew points, acting to "floor" lows in the lower 30s area wide. Tomorrow, southwesterly winds will resume but with less gusto (literally) as the low-level pressure gradient eases somewhat. Highs will climb into the lower 60s thanks to the eastward advection of a plume of seasonably warm 850 mb temperatures (sampled at +12 to +15 C on upstream 12Z RAOBs) and ample sunshine.
Areas of freezing fog will develop once again tonight for those valleys in the 2000-4000 feet range as well. Most of the valley freezing fog will develop between 3AM and 9AM.
524 PM EST Mon Nov 2 2020 Marine - Diminishing winds this evening - Warmer temperatures forecasted going into the weekend - Diminishing winds this evening Mixing heights are up around 6k ft. - Warmer temperatures forecasted going into the weekend We have raised the temperatures a few degrees each day.
539 PM CST Mon Nov 2 2020 Updated for 00Z aviation discussion 00Z TAF discussion: High pressure in place over the region. Tonight and Tuesday: Cold high pressure at the surface will settle over the region tonight. With lows falling into the low and middle 30s, frost will be possible across a good portion of the CWA early Tuesday morning. This will especially be the case over the Golden Triangle area and portions of North Central Mississippi, where lows will be near freezing for a couple of hours around day break Tuesday. Quiet and pleasant conditions will persist, with temperatures a little warmer than those observed on Monday.
1051 PM EST Mon Nov 2 2020 The first significant cold front of the season has swept across the Florida Keys and adjacent coastal waters, with air temperatures in the mid 70s and dewpoint temperatures in the mid 60s producing a very noticeable change in air mass, especially amidst northeast breezes blowing near gale force. Cooler and drier air over mainland south Florida upstream should augment downward momentum transport/surface wind speeds within a few hours.
High pressure continues to dominate the weather producing VFR conditions through the period.
357 AM EST Tue Nov 3 2020 High pressure will build across the southeastern US through Tuesday, then migrate offshore for the remainder of the week. As a longwave trough exits into the Canadian Maritimes, mid- level heights rebound considerably. A temperature inversion above the boundary layer will stunt some of this warming trend, but expect highs to be around 10 degrees warmer than the previous day. Upper 50s to low 60s can be expected over much of the region with 40s to low 50s across the Blue Ridge and Allegheny Front.
1023 PM MST Mon Nov 2 2020 Current surface map places weak trof across the western Dakotas. Upper ridge across the northern Rockies/Plains flattens through the week.
Upper level trough has moved off the Mid-Atlantic coast, while a deep layer pressure ridge centered over Texas noses eastward into the deep south. Skies remain clear and with high pressure resulting in light to calm wind and presence of dry conditions the stage is set for effective radiational cooling tonight.
Model soundings show increasing cirrus through the day, with cirrus coverage becoming broken at times by evening, ahead of an approaching very weak trough.
247 AM EST Tue Nov 3 2020 Synopsis/Discussion/Marine/Climate - Lengthy streak of above normal temperatures starts tomorrow - Dry weather expected through the weekend -- Lengthy streak of above normal temperatures starts tomorrow -- General pattern over the CONUS through next Monday will feature a large and strong dome of high pressure over the Mid-Atlantic States, which at times will extend into the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys.
350 AM EST Tue Nov 3 2020 The Keys and coastal waters are wedged between post frontal high pressure situated over the southeast and Hurricane Eta in the western Caribbean. It appears the area is in for a prolonged period of strong northeast to east breezes, as the ridge to our north very slowly rolls off to the north and northeast.
Ongoing weak warm air advection underway within this pattern only strengthens with time, anchored by increasing southwest flow across the lowest 3k ft.
1127 PM CST Mon Nov 2 2020 135 PM CST Currently, deep upper-level troughing is in place across the eastern United States with ridging across the west. Overnight, modest low-level moisture advection from the Plains will gradually raise surface dew points, acting to "floor" lows in the lower 30s area wide. Tomorrow, southwesterly winds will resume but with less gusto (literally) as the low-level pressure gradient eases somewhat. Highs will climb into the lower 60s thanks to the eastward advection of a plume of seasonably warm 850 mb temperatures (sampled at +12 to +15 C on upstream 12Z RAOBs) and ample sunshine.
Although maxT will be below average for early November, a diminishing wind will make it feel warmer than yesterday. Light winds and decoupled boundary layer should allow for the lowest min temps (low-mid 30s) tonight to occur in the central and eastern valleys. Meanwhile, a southwest breeze over the western high terrain should provide some of the warmest overnight readings across the ridgetops along the Allegheny Front.
1123 PM CST Mon Nov 2 2020 (06Z TAFs) VFR conditions are expected through the period with high pressure and clear skies.
A deep trough is positioned across the East, with ridging seen from southwest Canada down through the Desert Southwest. Meanwhile, an upper level low is spiraling across southern California. At the surface, deep low pressure is pulling away towards New Foundland, while high pressure is sprawled from the Ohio Valley through the Southern Plains. Very dry air has mixed down this afternoon, with dew points in the 10 to 20 degree range across many locations, with some ridges reporting single digits at times. The eastern trough will shift towards the Western Atlantic. Meanwhile, a trough moves in from the Eastern Pacific, as well as an advancing southern California upper level low, help to flatten out the ridging across most of the West.
Currently a broad upper-level ridge is positioned to our northwest, funneling cold, northerly air into the Tennessee Valley. While winds last night helped to keep temperatures higher than we forecast; tonight, the lack of winds will allow temperatures to fall to right around freezing. Looking at dew points, dew points are generally in the 30-34 degree range, which should keep our overnight lows from dropping below freezing, except for our TN counties where dew points are a bit lower (closer to 30). Short term model consensus suggests that deep-layer NW flow currently in place across the TN Valley will continue to subside through the day on Tuesday, as a longwave trough pivots further northeastward into the western north Atlantic and the center of a 500-mb high becomes established across South TX.
Broad ridging will continue to take hold across the western half of the U.
1256 AM EST Tue Nov 3 2020 Strong high pressure over the lower Mississippi River Valley will shift east to the Deep South over the next few days, keeping a dry and moderating southwesterly flow over the Ohio Valley. Temperatures will rise 5 to 10 degrees each day through the week, reaching the upper 60s to the lower 70s by the weekend with no chance of rain. Temperatures will drop to the low and mid 30s by daybreak as winds remain southwesterly. The MS/AL high pressure system builds northeast again in the wake of the departing longwave trough while a warmer southwesterly flow deepens - but remains very dry underneath a very dry northwesterly flow aloft.
) An anomalously strong ridge over the central CONUS today will focus the northern jet stream into southern Canada through the remainder of the week as broad mid-level zonal flow becomes the dominate feature of the Great Lakes region.
1017 PM CST Mon Nov 2 2020 (This evening through Tuesday) Dry and pleasant weather will persist across West Central Texas the next 24 hours, with an upper level short ridge influencing the region. Clear to partly cloudy skies will prevail tonight, with overnight lows in the lower 40s.
VFR through the period as deep ridging continues to strengthen across the area. CDG Chattanooga Airport, TN 34 64 40 68 44 / 0 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 31 60 38 67 42 / 0 0 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 32 61 38 67 42 / 0 0 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 28 57 34 67 38 / 0 0 0 0 0 NC.
/Issued 758 PM EST Mon Nov 2 2020/ High pressure will continue across the CWA overnight. /Issued 250 PM EST Mon Nov 2 2020/ Dry and sunny conditions are expected through the short term as high pressure dominates the area. Clear skies overnight will allow northeast Georgia to cool down into the low 30s. A few counties in northwest Georgia will near freezing.
112 AM EST Tue Nov 3 2020 Cold high pressure will settle across the region through the middle of the week. A weak trough may impact coastal areas late in the week. A calm and cold night continues with temperatures mostly in the low to mid 30s inland under clear skies. Dry WNW flow continues aloft with high pressure becoming centered across the region in the afternoon with downslope flow continuing to bring clear skies. CAA wanes as the high builds in allowing for descent warming with low level thicknesses about 25m higher and expect highs in the low to mid 60s. Strong high pressure across the Southeast will lead to cool and dry weather through midweek.
144 AM CST Tue Nov 3 2020 It's another chilly morning across Middle TN as high pressure dominates the region.
Calm winds and clear skies have dropped temps down into the low 30s. Based on current sfc dewpoints in the low 30s, it will be difficult for area wide temps to drop below freezing with the exception of southern middle Tennessee. While some freezing temps may be observed in our northern Alabama counties, no changes to the current headlines will be made given the low coverage in subfreezing conditions. Temperatures by this afternoon climb into the low to mid 60s, nearly 10 degrees warmer than yesterday as northwesterly flow aloft decreases in magnitude. By the middle of the week, the ridge axis across the southern CONUS shifts farther east, backing the flow aloft to more westerly.
1221 AM EST Tue Nov 3 2020 High pressure will persist across the region through the week. A weak coastal trough will develop nearby late week. Still think a few spots will drop at or maybe just below freezing, but durations should remain brief and the areal extent extremely limited.
/issued 730 PM EST Mon Nov 2 2020/ High pressure will continue to hold over the region tonight and Tuesday with clear skies across the region. Very diverse temperatures expected tonight with lows ranging from the lower to mid 40s across the northern nature coast.
All of these readings were much warmer than this time yesterday and will set us up for a warm day ahead as skies will remain clear.
Temperatures have dropped fairly quickly this evening across portions of southeast Oklahoma in the lower valley areas with light winds. Warming trend will continue on Tuesday with high temperatures climbing back into the lower to mid 70s.
325 AM EST Tue Nov 3 2020 High pressure will remain in control of the weather for most of the week. Despite the cloud cover and wind speeds around 5kts, many locations have still managed to drop into the lower 30s this morning as of 08Z. Highs today will be noticeably warmer than those seen yesterday as the airmass begins to modify, with afternoon temps climbing into the lower 60s. Lows tonight will also be a bit warmer, generally in the upper 30s to around 40.
929 PM CST Mon Nov 2 2020 Currently a broad upper-level ridge is positioned to our northwest, funneling cold, northerly air into the Tennessee Valley. While winds last night helped to keep temperatures higher than we forecast; tonight, the lack of winds will allow temperatures to fall to right around freezing. Looking at dew points, dew points are generally in the 30-34 degree range, which should keep our overnight lows from dropping below freezing, except for our TN counties where dew points are a bit lower (closer to 30). Short term model consensus suggests that deep-layer NW flow currently in place across the TN Valley will continue to subside through the day on Tuesday, as a longwave trough pivots further northeastward into the western north Atlantic and the center of a 500-mb high becomes established across South TX.
An upper trough axis continues ejecting eastward over Ontario and the extreme northeast CONUS, paving the way for deep nwly flow aloft across much of the central/southeast United States. Likewise, confluent flow over the Southern Appalachians will further reinforce surface ridging across the I20 corridor, eventually advecting northeast into the TN Valley Tuesday evening. Closer to home, current conditions favor ample radiational cooling with most rural obs at or below freezing, while heat island effects continue to hold urban areas in the mid 30s. High pressure to the south will favor weak sly waa while deep dry air suggests sunny skies. Tonight, calm/cool conditions will prevail yet again amidst the ridge center settling nearly overhead.
1144 PM EST Mon Nov 2 2020 Aviation - Diminishing winds this evening - Warmer temperatures forecasted going into the weekend - Diminishing winds this evening Mixing heights are up around 6k ft. - Warmer temperatures forecasted going into the weekend We have raised the temperatures a few degrees each day.
The flow will become more zonal with some weak ridging trying to build into the area toward the end of the week. Temperatures have fallen into the lower to middle 30s across much of the Midlands and CSRA. H5 heights will continue to rise through the day and high pressure will dominate the weather across the region through the day and into tonight. Expect another chilly night with good radiational conditions as high pressure dominates the region.
KPL (Issued 225 PM CST Mon Nov 2 2020) Tonight through Tuesday night: Winds will eventually taper off late this afternoon and evening and become light as a sfc pressure ridge sharpens over the northern Great Lakes. Skies should remain mostly clear, save for a few passing high clouds, and overnight lows will drop into the low 30s. The Great Lakes high pressure will slide eastward through tomorrow, allowing for a slightly steeper pressure gradient to build back into the area as a low pressure system meanders eastward over south central Canada. The winds will lead to warm air advection and temperatures will warm into the low 60s tomorrow afternoon.
250 AM EST Tue Nov 3 2020 The morning surface analysis reveals an area of high pressure is centered across the Lower Mississippi River Valley. Meanwhile in the mid-levels we see the amplified trough axis has pushed well east into the Atlantic. The guidance is in good agreement that this trough will relent in the Ohio Valley resulting in height rises through the day. The height rises and nearby high pressure will lead to highs moderating into the 60s by this afternoon under sunny skies. The weak southerly flow will allow for another night of decent ridge/valley temperature splits under clear and calm conditions, with temperatures in the upper 20s to lower 30s and ridges in the mid 30s to near 40.
Quiet weather is expected to continue today, with a dry atmosphere underneath building mid and upper-level ridging suggesting not much in the way of cloud cover. and low pressure in the southern Canadian prairies. Given increasing warm air aloft, models are in good agreement on highs reaching the mid to upper 60s for almost the entire area (a little cooler in Taylor County), with a few 70s possible across western portions of southeast MN/northeast IA if temperatures overachieve a little.
239 AM EST Tue Nov 3 2020 Upper heights will rise today as the East Coast trof departs, giving way to zonal flow.
Winds will be light and variable tonight and Tuesday as high pressure moves through the region. /10/ Expect clear skies tonight with lows in the lower to middle 30s. /27/ Prior discussion below: Tonight and Tuesday: Cold high pressure at the surface will settle over the region tonight. With lows falling into the low and middle 30s, frost will be possible across a good portion of the CWA early Tuesday morning. This will especially be the case over the Golden Triangle area and portions of North Central Mississippi, where lows will be near freezing for a couple of hours around day break Tuesday. Quiet and pleasant conditions will persist, with temperatures a little warmer than those observed on Monday.
Much of the region, outside of the higher elevations, should maintain temperatures in the 30s.
1006 PM MST Mon Nov 2 2020 An upper level ridge over the region will give way to the cut-off upper level low over SoCal that will weaken to an open wave and cross eastern UT and western CO Tuesday and Tuesday night. There are currently scattered thunderstorms over NW AZ to eastern NV on the leading edge of this upper level low and supported by a modest plume of precipitable water from the eastern Pacific. As the low pressure trough moves east, the precipitable water over our area will increase, but not to the levels farther southwest today. It will be another mild day Tuesday with temperatures nearly the same or a degree or two warmer than today.
High pressure will begin to lose its cold grip on the area with highs today some 4-7 degrees warmer than Monday with readings in the mid 60s to low 70s.
Today Through Wednesday Night Early this morning, high pressure was located at the surface to the east of Arkansas, with an upper level ridge located over west Texas and northern Mexico. By the end of the period, we should see an increase in clouds as an upper trough moves around the periphery of an amplifying ridge over the plains.
534 AM CST Tue Nov 3 2020 (Today and tonight) An upper level ridge will start over the area today, and move just east of the region by tonight as an upper level low moves east into UT by late Tuesday night. With the ridge over the area, mostly sunny skies, and southerly winds, temperatures should be a few degrees warmer with highs in the mid 70s to around 80 degrees. Lows tonight will mainly be in the lower 40s.