Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
347 AM PDT WED JUN 10 2015 SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER INTERIOR NORCAL THROUGH EARLY EVENING WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES. WARMER TEMPERATURES RETURN THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER. NAM AND GFS HAVE THE LOW MOVING EASTWARD BY TONIGHT SO NORCAL WILL BECOME DRIER TONIGHT AS SHOWERS DIMINISH. HOWEVER, THE COOLER AIRMASS ALOFT FROM THE LOW COUPLED WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER WILL ALSO HELP TO KEEP THINGS COOLER TODAY. BY THURSDAY, THE LOW WILL BE EAST OF OUR CWA AND HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN AND CA.
A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ADVANCE ACROSS THE REGION LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO APPROACH AREAS NORTH OF I 80 LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. THE COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE CROSSING THE AREA THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY BEFORE STALLING. THE UPPER FLOW IS PROGGED TO TURN SOUTHWEST LATER THURSDAY PUSHING THE FRONT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT.
DEEP LAYER RIDGE AXIS NOSES NORTHWESTWARDS FROM THE BAHAMAS. PUSHING THE DEEPER MOISTURE FURTHER WEST WITH THE RETROGRADING TROUGH ALONG WITH WARMING MID LEVEL TEMPS.
ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES. EARLIER SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTED THE REMNANT LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION OF BLANCA ALSO DISSIPATED IN THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY EARLIER THIS EVENING. LATEST WV IMAGERY SHOWS SIGNIFICANT DRYING TAKING PLACE IN THE UPPER LEVELS WITH A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC TROUGH. ALBEIT THE HIGHEST POPS ARE AROUND 30 PERCENT. THE WEAK UPPER LOW OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST WILL MOVE INLAND ON WEDNESDAY.
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT. AND GOOD RADIATING CONDS UNDERNEATH SFC RIDGING. A QUICK RIDGE WED AM BEFORE ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROF COMES IN LATE IN THE DAY. A COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH LATE EVENING WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF IT. HIGH TEMPS REBOUND INTO THE LOW 80S.
412 AM EDT WED JUN 10 2015 A COLD FRONT INTO CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA BEFORE IT SLOWS DOWN AND WEAKENS. THE RIDGE ALOFT WILL BUILD NORTH ONCE AGAIN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND WHEN SUMMERTIME HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE THE RULE. THE COLD FRONT/BOUNDARY SETS UP SOMEWHERE OVERHEAD AS THE BIG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE HOLDS IT UP. MAXES ON THURSDAY WILL TAKE A RUN AT 90F IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS IN THE SE WITH 80S ELSEWHERE.
355 AM EDT WED JUN 10 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY.
442 AM EDT WED JUN 10 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AND DISSIPATE THIS MORNING. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ALONG OR JUST WEST OF THE COASTAL PLAIN INTO THE WEEKEND.
WEAK MID/UPPER TROUGHING WILL REMAIN SITUATED FROM THE DEEP SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
502 AM CDT WED JUN 10 2015 LATEST WV/UA ANALYSIS SHOWS AN UPR TROF OVER THE ERN CONUS WITH AN UPR RIDGE CNTRD OVER CNTL MEX NWD INTO ERN NEW MEX/SE COLO. WEAK HIGH PRES WAS RIDGING WEST ACRS THE GULF COAST AND SE STATES WITH A LT SLY FLOW OVER THE REGION. THE UPR RIDGE TO THE WEST WILL CONTINUE TO LOSE ITS INFLUENCE ON THE AREA AS LOW PRES ALOFT BEGINS TO CUTOFF FM THE NRN STREAM TROF. AFTN HIGHS SHOULD FLIRT WITH NEAR NORMAL VALUES IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S OUTSIDE OF AREAS OF CONVECTION WITH TEMPERATURES A LITTLE COOLER IN THOSE AREAS THAT DO GET A SHOWER.
THE HIGHEST CHANCES WILL BE IN THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND UPPER SNAKE HIGHLANDS FOR MOST OF TODAY. AND THE HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD OF HEAVY RAINFALL. AS THE LOW SLOWLY MOVES TO OUR EAST IN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER BUT STILL AT OR JUST ABOVE AVERAGE FOR EARLY JUNE. OUR FLOW BECOMES WESTERLY AGAIN AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER SOUTHERN CANADA AND SETTLES SOUTHWARD A BIT.
349 AM CDT Wed Jun 10 2015 (Today and Tonight) Very quiet in the short term for West Central Texas, with the upper level ridge axis directly overhead.
419 AM CDT WED JUN 10 2015 UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER NEW MEXICO WILL RETREAT. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHING THE CA COAST WILL SLOWLY MOVE INLAND.
ONCE THE DISTURBANCE EXITS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT, THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REBUILD INTO MONTANA FROM THE WEST, WHICH WILL BRING QUIETER AND WARMER WEATHER TO THE FORECAST AREA. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN THOSE ON WEDNESDAY, WHICH WOULD MAKE THEM ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT BROAD UPPER RIDGING COVERS THE WESTERN 2/3 OF THE STATES. WITH COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH NORTHWEST SD. UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN TONIGHT AS LOW MOVES ONSHORE AND A COUPLE WAVES PUSH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. LOW-LEVEL JET INCREASES AS UPPER LOW CLOSES OFF OVER SOUTHWEST SD. HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S ACROSS NORTHWEST SD TO THE LOWER 80S ACROSS NORTHEAST WY AND SOUTHERN SD.
546 AM EDT WED JUN 10 2015 WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE DEPARTED COLD FRONT TODAY.
WITH MANY LOCATIONS AGAIN CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER 90S RANGE. AS UPPER RIDGING RETURNS TO MUCH OF THE REGION.
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS VERY SLOWLY RETREATS BACK INTO MEXICO AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIFTS OUT INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WEST CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS A LITTLE FURTHER TO THE SOUTHWEST.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE CWA ATTM UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL TROF. THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOW IN FAR ERN NY ALONG THE COLD FRONT. A QUICK RIDGE WED AM BEFORE ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROF COMES IN LATE IN THE DAY. A COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH LATE EVENING WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF IT. HIGH TEMPS REBOUND INTO THE LOW 80S.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST WITH THE HIGHEST COVERAGE ACROSS THE SOUTH. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL ALSO BUILD ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OVER THE WEEKEND.
139 AM EDT WED JUN 10 2015 WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
331 AM CDT WED JUN 10 2015 HAVE MADE LITTLE CHANGE TO THE FORECAST WHICH CALLS FOR AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AS MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES TO ERODE ACROSS THE STATE.
Drier conditions are expected Thursday with a building upper ridge.
RIDGE GRADUALLY BUILDS IN THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES LOW OVER EASTERN ONTARIO WITH COLD FRONT DROPPING DOWN THROUGH NORTHWEST MINNESOTA INTO SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. WITH THE HIGHEST 0-6KM SHEAR RANGING BETWEEN 25KT TO 35KT OVER THE SOUTHWEST. ENHANCING THE VERTICAL MOTION WITH THE HIGHEST POPS WEST/SOUTHWEST THROUGH FAR SOUTH CENTRAL.
1233 AM CDT WED JUN 10 2015 HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE AREA.
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE 500MB RIDGE AXIS ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO EXTENDING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND A 500MB TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN U. THE 500MB RIDGE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO WILL MOVE SLOWLY WEST TOWARD NORTHWEST MEXICO TODAY AS MID LEVEL WEAKNESS CONTINUES TO DRIFT SOUTH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE WEAK GRADIENT ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS TODAY. AN UPTICK IN SOUTHEAST WINDS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY DUE TO THE INTERACTION OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF.
AND THURSDAY EXPECTING A BRIEF RETURN TO COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS TODAY AND TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT HAD ALREADY MOVED THROUGH NC/C WI AND WAS APPROACHING THE FOX VALLEY/LAKESHORE AREAS. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION AND RESIDE OVER NORTHERN WI TONIGHT. EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE TODAY WITH HIGH TEMPS RANGING FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S SOUTHEAST. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD HOLD OFF THE RAIN OVER MOST OF THE CWA INTO THURSDAY MORNING. BUT AN APPROACHING S/W TROF. INCREASING MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AND A H8 WARM FRONT WILL COMBINE TO GENERATE A STEADY LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN OVER AT LEAST THE SW HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.
MID/UPR LVL RIDGE OVER TEXAS BREAKS DOWN TODAY AND SHIFTS WWD ALLOWING A WEAK SHEAR AXIS TO SETTLE ALONG THE UPPER COAST.
508 AM EDT WED JUN 10 2015 COLD FRONT HAS JUST PUSHED THROUGH MARQUETTE TO IRON MTN LINE AS OF 09Z. CLUSTERS OF SHRA/TSRA THAT PRODUCED DAMAGING WINDS IN IRON MTN AREA AROUND 07Z ARE OUTRUNNING COLD FRONT AND STRONGER ELEVATED INSTABILITY PER MUCAPE ANALYSIS FM SPC MESOANALYSIS PAGE AND ARE NOW PRETTY MUCH OUT OF EASTERN CWA. A FEW LINGERING SHRA COULD AFFECT FAR EAST THIS MORNING JUST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVERHEAD TONIGHT LEADS TO MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. WILL CERTAINLY SEE COOLER CONDITIONS THAN THIS MORNING WITH READINGS MOSTLY IN THE 40S. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING IN FROM THE NW WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
200 AM EDT WED JUN 10 2015 A COLD FRONT SETTLES INTO THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT AND DISSIPATES OVER THE CAROLINAS WEDNESDAY.
1205 AM CDT WED JUN 10 2015 CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH OUT OF THE DAKOTAS. A SFC COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO EXTEND WEST TO EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN NEBRASKA AND CENTRAL IOWA. AS THE FRONT BEGINS TO LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. THE SFC BOUNDARY WILL DROP SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE CWA THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT PROVIDING ADDITIONAL SUPPORT FOR CONTINUED THUNDERSTORMS WILL POTENTIAL HEAVY RAIN ONCE AGAIN.
MAIN QUANDARY FOR THIS PERIOD CENTERS AROUND THE POSSIBILITY FOR SHWRS/TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE PLATEAU. REST OF MID STATE SHOULD REMAIN DRY PER SFC/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING INFLUENCES. REST OF MID STATE WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN DRY PER ABOVE MENTIONED RIDGING INFLUENCES. PER BUILDING FROM THE EAST BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE INFLUENCES SFC/ALOFT THU THRU FRI NIGHT. AND DESPITE THESE BUILDING RIDGING INFLUENCES. ALTHOUGH AT THIS TIME OF YEAR ALSO WITH FREEZING LEVEL HEIGHTS RATHER HIGH. GENERALLY SPANNING THE LOWER 90S.
AS THE UPPER RIDGE QUICKLY MOVES EAST OF THE AREA ON THU. A COLD FRONT WILL SURGE SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
BACK EDGE OF THE LOW CLOUD DECK WILL CONTINUE ADVANCING EWD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING WITH MAYBE JUST A LITTLE CIRRUS LIKELY BEGINNING LATER TONIGHT. THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT BROUGHT THE WET AND WINDY WEATHER OVER THE PAST COUPLE DAYS IS MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI THIS AFTERNOON. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT OUT OF THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH THE WRAP AROUND MOISTURE DEPARTING THROUGH THIS EVENING.
647 PM CDT TUE OCT 27 2015 DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSING FROM EASTERN COLORADO THIS EVENING INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA LATER TONIGHT. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY INCLUDING A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST NORTH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT BUT THIS SYSTEM WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD LATER TONIGHT PASSING THROUGH TAF SITES AROUND 08Z-09Z WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE FRONT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER WYOMING AT MID-AFTN THAT WILL TRANSLATE SEWD TO WRN OKLAHOMA BEFORE SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. THIS COMPACT FAST-MOVING TROUGH WILL HAVE ENOUGH LIFT TO GENERATE A MID LEVEL CLOUD FIELD AND MAYBE SOME SHOWERS. HIGHS WEDNESDAY LOOK TO BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY GIVEN PROGGED THICKNESS DECREASES. THIS FAVORS SIDING TOWARD THE COOLER SIDE OF MOS IN LINE WITH PREVIOUS FCST.
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DROP SOUTH OVERNIGHT. EXPECT FORCING AND MOISTURE TO QUICKLY CUT OFF AS LOW LIFTS NORTH AND CAA PUSHES IN WITH UPPER LEVEL LOW DROPPING SOUTH. UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DEEPEN OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST ON WEDNESDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY MOVE THROUGH AR TOWARD WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY LIFT CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES.
827 PM EDT TUE OCT 27 2015 HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF TO THE EAST TONIGHT WITH A STRONG STORM SYSTEM BRINGING A RAINY WINDY DAY FOR WEDNESDAY.
643 PM CDT TUE OCT 27 2015 LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN INTO ANOTHER LOW ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS WHERE A TIGHT CIRCULATION IS SHOWING UP ACROSS EASTERN WYOMING INTO SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA/EXTREME NORTHWEST NEBRASKA. A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES CONTINUE TO SHOW UP WITHIN THIS TROUGH AND WE CAN NOT RULE OUT A CLAP OR TWO OF THUNDER THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE TROUGH AXIS PROGRESSES EAST THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDS AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH. WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM EASTERN SASKATCHEWAN THROUGH THE WESTERN DAKOTAS AND INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT.
AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES. AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING NORTHWARD FROM THE LOW CENTER APPEARS TO HAVE MOVED WEST OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE, TAKING THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION WITH IT.
A cold front will move through the area Wednesday morning along with improving conditions. /issued / Weakening upper level system lifting north northeast within broad trough axis this afternoon. another fast moving upper disturbance swings through aforementioned trough axis tonight. and points further east tomorrow as the wave departs within the retreating trough axis.
THESE WINDS SHOULD SLOWLY DIMINISH AFT 28/09Z AS SHORT WAVE EXITS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND WEAK UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER NM. INCREASING MID TO HIGH CLOUDS UNDER THE BUILDING RIDGE. DRY WEATHER THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A SHORT WAVE RIDGE BUILDS OVER NM. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH DOWN THE EASTERN PLAINS TONIGHT WITH GUSTY WINDS BEHIND IT.
Current mesoanalysis and 00Z OUN sounding both show a little elevated instability already in place across, and with cooler mid level temperatures arriving with the approach of the disturbance, what little instability is there is not likely to completely go away. A cold front will move through the area Wednesday morning along with improving conditions. /ISSUED 335 PM CDT TUE OCT 27 2015/ Weakening upper level system lifting north northeast within broad trough axis this afternoon. another fast moving upper disturbance swings through aforementioned trough axis tonight. and points further east tomorrow as the wave departs within the retreating trough axis.
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 56 71 55 70 / 90 60 30 20 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 56 69 56 68 / 80 70 30 30 OAK RIDGE, TN 56 68 56 69 / 90 70 30 30 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 54 69 54 66 / 70 80 40 30 TN.
THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT OF THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL INTO SRN WI TNT AND WED MORNING. AS THE LOW TRACKS INTO CENTRAL AND NRN WI THE COLD FRONT WILL SURGE EWD FROM LATE WED AM INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. VSBYS WILL RANGE FROM 2-5SM BUT MAY DROP TO 1 MILE OR POSSIBLY LESS FROM 10-14Z AS THE LOW TRACKS NORTH OVER SRN WI.
624 PM CDT TUE OCT 27 2015 LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP NORTHWARD UP THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN RAPIDLY (NEARLY 10 MB WITHIN ONLY A 6 HOUR PERIOD) WEDNESDAY MORNING AS IT SHIFTS OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS LOW WILL PUSH TWO COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARIES ACROSS THE AREA. WITH THE COLDER PUSH COMES STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND LOWERING FREEZING HEIGHTS. AND SOME OF THESE COULD CONTAIN GRAUPEL GIVEN THE LOWERING FREEZING HEIGHTS.
645 PM CDT TUE OCT 27 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEEPEN AND CLOSE OFF AS IT DROPS FROM SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN EARLY THIS EVENING. H500 UPPER LOW WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS, DEEPEN AND CLOSE OFF BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHLIGHTING THE PERIOD ARE THE WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND.
Generally light southwest winds tonight will become gusty and shift to the north in the wake of a cold frontal passage early tomorrow starting at KABI around 10Z/5AM and at KSJT around 11Z/6AM and moving through the rest of the terminals by around 14Z/9AM.
CONTINUE TO WATCH A COLD FRONT SLOWLY MAKE ITS WAY EAST ACROSS THE CWA WITH STRATUS DECK ON ITS HEELS. MUCH COOLER TEMPS WILL ALSO BE MOVING INTO THE AREA TOMORROW AS 850 MB TEMPS QUICKLY DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO CELSIUS BY 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING.
This will be coincident with approaching mid level energy from the west, which will cause pressure falls and low pressure over the MS Valley region. A few higher than 3 inch amounts cannot be ruled out as the low level jet strengthens into the area this evening, with enhanced lift with the mid trop trof and possible more efficient convective elements. Lowering freezing levels means some small hail cannot be ruled out as well with low topped convection.
A COLD FRONT WILL BE INBOUND WEDNESDAY AND WILL STAY JUST NORTH OF THE VALLEY AERODROMES THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE HIGH TEMPS WILL APPROACH RECORD VALUES.
FLORIDA REMAINS IN THE WARM SECTOR THIS EVENING WITH WEAK WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER SOUTHERN GEORGIA EXPECTED TO ADVANCE SLOWLY NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT. H100-H70 RIDGE AXIS MOVING OFF THE ERN SEABOARD WILL DEFLECT A WEAKENING STORM SYSTEM FROM THE DEEP SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WHERE IT WILL MERGE WITH A HI AMP FRONTAL TROF PUSHING OUT OF THE THE ROCKY MTNS/HIGH PLAINS. INTERACTION BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE STORM SYSTEM WILL ALLOW THE SFC/LOW LVL PGRAD TO BECOME VERTICALLY TILTED. A FRONTAL TROF TRAILING FROM THE STORM CIRCULATION CENTER OVER THE LWR MS VALLEY TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WILL DRIFT INTO THE FL PENINSULA IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING RIDGE. DEEP MOISTURE POOLING WITHIN THE FRONTAL TROF WILL ADVECT INTO EAST CENTRAL FL.
1249 AM EDT WED OCT 28 2015 STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING RAIN THROUGH TONIGHT. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY AHEAD OF STRENGTHENING MIDWEST LOW PRESSURE. SOME OF THIS MAY MIX DOWN WITH DOWNSLOPING IN FAYETTE AND WESTMORELAND COUNTIES AS THE FLOW WILL BE PERPENDICULAR TO THE RIDGES. THE STRONGEST PORTION OF THE LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD BE EXITING BY THAT TIME.
/ISSUED 401 PM CDT TUE OCT 27 2015/ COLD FRONT MOVING INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS AT THIS TIME IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH ALL OF THE OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY.
Generally light southwest winds tonight will become gusty and shift to the north in the wake of a cold frontal passage early tomorrow starting at KABI around 13Z/8AM and moving through the rest of the terminals by around 15Z/10AM. /ISSUED 354 PM CDT TUE OCT 27 2015/ (Tonight and Wednesday) Continued dry through the next 24 hours, but a cold front will sweep through the area Wednesday. Clear skies, and westerly downsloping winds have led to much warmer temperatures today with current readings mainly in the mid 80s. By early Wednesday morning, a cold front will be moving through the I-20 corridor. The front should be through the I-10 corridor by shortly after 10 AM tomorrow, resulting in gusty north winds across the area, and highs of around 10 degrees cooler.
1146 PM CDT TUE OCT 27 2015 THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY WORKING SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST AND WESTERN ZONES. TEMPERATURES MAY BE COOLER.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEEPEN AND CLOSE OFF AS IT DROPS FROM SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN EARLY THIS EVENING. H500 UPPER LOW WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS, DEEPEN AND CLOSE OFF BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHLIGHTING THE PERIOD ARE THE WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND.
THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT BROUGHT THE WET AND WINDY WEATHER OVER THE PAST COUPLE DAYS IS MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI THIS AFTERNOON. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT OUT OF THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH THE WRAP AROUND MOISTURE DEPARTING THROUGH THIS EVENING.
A weak cold front will move through the area tomorrow morning. Current mesoanalysis and 00Z OUN sounding both show a little elevated instability already in place across, and with cooler mid level temperatures arriving with the approach of the disturbance, what little instability is there is not likely to completely go away. A cold front will move through the area Wednesday morning along with improving conditions. /ISSUED 335 PM CDT TUE OCT 27 2015/ Weakening upper level system lifting north northeast within broad trough axis this afternoon. another fast moving upper disturbance swings through aforementioned trough axis tonight. and points further east tomorrow as the wave departs within the retreating trough axis.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE BACK EDGE OF THE LOWER CLOUDS EXTENDING FROM EAST OF AEX TO NEAR LFT AND ADVANCING TO THE EAST. THE LOW CEILINGS WILL MOVE OUT OR BURN OFF BY LATE MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL OF THE TERMINALS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WEDNESDAY.
A LONG WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY MVG E-SE ACROSS THE REGION WILL CONTINUE MVG ESE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH A WEAK/FLAT RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA WED. THE AIRMASS IS TOO DRY FOR ANY CONVECTION WITH THE UPPER TROUGH TONIGHT NOR THE FRONT ON WED.
629 PM CDT TUE OCT 27 2015 CONTINUE TO WATCH A COLD FRONT SLOWLY MAKE ITS WAY EAST ACROSS THE CWA WITH STRATUS DECK ON ITS HEELS. MUCH COOLER TEMPS WILL ALSO BE MOVING INTO THE AREA TOMORROW AS 850 MB TEMPS QUICKLY DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO CELSIUS BY 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THE LOWER LEVELS WILL REMAIN TOO WARM TO SUPPORT FROZEN PRECIPITATION ACROSS EAST CENTRAL WY INTO THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE. LIKELY DUE TO STRONG PVA IN ADVANCE OF A SECONDARY DISTURBANCE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE PARENT TROUGH. BUT WILL NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON ROAD TEMPS WITH MELTING AND RE-FREEZING A CONCERN. SO EXPECT A COLD MORNING ON THU WITH WIDESPREAD 20S FOR LOWS BEFORE THE RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD. 00Z MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT THAN THE PREVIOUS 24 HOURS WITH THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH PASSAGE.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN IN THE LOWER 60S THIS EVENING AND ONLY DROP A FEW DEGREES FROM CURRENT READINGS BY SUNRISE.
00 UTC surface analysis shows the low pressure area continuing to weaken while moving further inland across Western Mississippi.
THIS HAS GIVEN RISE TO TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S WHILE MOST AREAS STILL SOCKED IN WITH CLOUDS HAVE ONLY MANAGED THE MID TO UPPER 60S. JUST AS A COLD FRONT AND ACCOMPANYING SHORT WAVE BEGIN TO ADVANCE INTO THE AREA.
However, showers will probably continue during the early morning hours since 500mb trough still has to come through the area. LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP NORTHWARD UP THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN RAPIDLY (NEARLY 10 MB WITHIN ONLY A 6 HOUR PERIOD) WEDNESDAY MORNING AS IT SHIFTS OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS LOW WILL PUSH TWO COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARIES ACROSS THE AREA. WITH THE COLDER PUSH COMES STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND LOWERING FREEZING HEIGHTS. AND SOME OF THESE COULD CONTAIN GRAUPEL GIVEN THE LOWERING FREEZING HEIGHTS.
THERE MAY ALSO BE AN ISOLATED ELEVATED TSRA TONIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH. WITH THE WINDS SHIFTING TO A MORE SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION AND THEN SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES NORTH.
AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING NORTHWARD FROM THE LOW CENTER APPEARS TO HAVE MOVED WEST OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE, TAKING THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION WITH IT.
THE WIND WILL BECOME NORTHERLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE OCCURRING AT ALL AIRPORTS. VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS THE MORNING CLOUD COVER CONTINUING TO MOVE EASTWARD WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT BROUGHT SO MUCH RAINFALL TO THE STATE A FEW DAYS AGO. ON THE HEELS OF THIS SYSTEM IS A COLD FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TOMORROW.
A COLD FRONT MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE WESTERN WATERS OF THE KEYS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. SEVERAL AREAS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE MAIN LINE ARE LOCATED SOUTH OF THE LOWER KEYS MOVING NORTH NORTHEAST AND WILL POSSIBLY AFFECT THE LOWER AND MIDDLE KEYS AFTER MIDNIGHT. AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES NORTHEAST AND EXITS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. AT THE SAME TIME A MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES AND OFF THE EASTERN COAST OF FLORIDA DURING THE WEEKEND. THE HIGH TIDE IS REACHING ITS PEAK AS OF 1150 PM. THE HIGH TIDE FROM 1130 AM TO 2 PM ON WEDNESDAY ALONG THE FLORIDA KEYS WILL CAUSE MINIMAL FLOODING.