Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
The strengthening southerly flow will also bring the warm frontal clouds into central Illinois, creating mostly cloudy conditions before the end of the day. Despite the limited afternoon sunshine, warm advection breezes will help high temps climb 6 to 10 degrees warmer than yesterday. Upper pattern currently in transition to a warmer and wetter regime, allowing highs in the 60s much of the week past today. One trough was approaching the East Coast early this morning, with another sharpening trough just off the West Coast. This latter one will continue to dig and close off a low over southern California by Monday evening, with the upper low slowly drifting over northern and central Mexico until late week.
1004 AM EST SUN MAR 6 2016 QUIET AND COOL WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SITS OVER THE REGION.
911 AM EST SUN MAR 6 2016 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST MONDAY.
727 AM EST SUN MAR 6 2016 A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BUILD OVER THE STATE TODAY.
1042 AM EST SUN MAR 6 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEK. A MID LVL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SHIFT FURTHER OFFSHORE WHILE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE WEST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE APPEARS TOO WARM GIVEN THE SYNOPTIC SET UP AND THE FORECAST REFLECTS COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S INLAND FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST. PATCHY FROST APPEARS LIKELY ACROSS NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TOWARD THE MIDLANDS AND ALSO IN THE TYPICALLY COOLER LOCATIONS IN AND AROUND THE FRANCIS MARION NATIONAL FOREST. BUT IF TEMPERATURES ARE COOLER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST MORE WIDESPREAD FROST COULD BECOME A CONCERN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST OFF THE CAROLINA COAST MONDAY.
1012 AM EST SUN MAR 6 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY AND PERSIST THROUGH MID WEEK. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH SLOWLY FROM THE WEST THROUGH LATE WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL STEADILY SETTLE IN OVER THE AREA FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE PERIOD. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE SHORT TERM SEGMENT OF THE FCST AS IT WILL INITIALIZE ON MONDAY MORNING AMIDST H5 RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES. WHILE A LARGE/BROAD H5 TROF CONSUMES THE WESTERN CONUS.
Southwesterly flow aloft will develop across the region by Monday, as the large upper trough begins to move onto the West Coast of the country.
Gusty winds and brief heavy precipitation are the headline stories today as a strong cold front pushes east through the Northern Rockies. High resolution forecast models trek the cold front into Idaho by 8am PST and Montana an hour or two later, by 11am MST. It also appears as though the southern extent of the cold front may become hung up or slowed by friction attributed to the higher terrain across Central Idaho and Southwest Montana.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER INDIANA WILL MOVE ACROSS OHIO TODAY AND OFF THE CAROLINA COAST MONDAY.
TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM SEASONABLY WARM INLAND WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S ALONG THE I-75 CORRIDOR TO SEASONABLY COOL ALONG THE COAST WITH VALUES IN THE MID/UPPER 60S. SUSTAINED WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR 10 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 15-20 MPH ALONG THE DRY COLD FRONT AND ALONG THE COAST INTO THE AFTN.
VARYING DEGREES OF EASTERN COLORADO LEE-SIDE TROUGHING IS ANTICIPATED FROM TODAY INTO TONIGHT. AN UPR LEVEL TROF WL BE MOVING ACROSS CO MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING. BY LATE EVENING IT LOOKS LIKE MOST IF NOT ALL PCPN WL END AS THE UPR TROF MOVES OUT OF THE AREA. HIGH TEMPS ON MONDAY WILL GENERALLY BE A LITTLE ABOVE AVERAGE AT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. TUE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA. TEMPS ON TUE SHOULD BE A LITTLE COOLER AND RIGHT AROUND AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. FRI A NEW UPR TROF MOVES ALONG THE WEST COAST WHILE DRY AND VERY WARM CONDITIONS REMAIN OVR THE FORECAST AREA. SAT THE UPR TROF IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE GREAT BASIN.
632 AM EST SUN MAR 6 2016 HIGH PRESSURE OVER INDIANA WILL MOVE ACROSS OHIO TODAY AND OFF THE CAROLINA COAST MONDAY.
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION.
230 PM MST SAT NOV 7 2015 UPPER RIDGE OVER COLORADO THROUGH SUNDAY WITH DRY AIR ALOFT. THERE SHOULD BE WARMER TEMPERATURES AND LESS FOG TONIGHT. BUT THE LOWER PLATTE VALLEY COULD STILL RADIATE ENOUGH. AND THE AREA EAST OF LIMON AND STERLING COULD HAVE A BIT MORE MOISTURE LEFT AND GENTLE UPSLOPE ON THE RIDGE THERE. TEMPERATURES ABOUT 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT EXCEPT IN THE VALLEYS OF GRAND COUNTY WHERE SKIES DID NOT CLEAR AS WELL THIS MORNING.
THIS HIGH KEPT SKIES MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH. AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA. KEEPING US WARMER THAN WE TYPICALLY WOULD BE IN THIS SYNOPTIC SITUATION. THIS WILL KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 30S. THE HIGHEST WIND GUSTS WILL BE FOUND IN SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA.
High pressure will dominate our weather regime Sunday.
FOR NOW NEXT WAVY COLD FRONT IS DUE TO CROSS OREGON SUNDAY AND SLOWLY CROSS ID SUNDAY NIGHT.
252 PM CST SAT NOV 7 2015 THE 20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED THAT THE COLD FRONT WAS NOW WELL SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH CONTINUED OVER-RUNNING LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN ACROSS THE REGION.
329 PM EST SAT NOV 7 2015 CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
A WEAK UPPER LOW CURRENTLY DEVELOPING OVER OK AND NORTH TX WILL MOVE ENE LATE IN THE WEEKEND.
and if the high res models (HRRR and RAP13) are right pops will have to be trimmed even more.
DID RAISE HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST WHICH TRENDED TOWARD THE WARMER MAV GUIDANCE. SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO BRING A SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AND WINDS TO THE REGION FOR THE MID TO LATE PART OF THE WORK WEEK. A ZONAL PATTERN WILL BECOME MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED AS A DEEP UPPER TROF DIGS INTO THE WSTRN UNITED STATES EARLY IN THE WEEK.
FROST AND MAYBE EVEN FREEZING TEMPS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN PARTS OF THE FA LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND DRIER AIR ALOFT MOVE INTO OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS.
SUNNY AND SEASONABLY MILD TODAY AHEAD OF AN INCOMING COLD FRONT. COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE NORTH BAY IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS OF SUNDAY WITH A BAND OF LIGHT RAIN THAT WILL TRACK SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE BAY AREA BY LATE MORNING OR MIDDAY AND THEN INTO THE MONTEREY BAY REGION.
1134 AM CST SAT NOV 7 2015 AT H5 UPPER HIGH TO THE EAST OF FLORIDA AND A TROUGH FROM EASTERN CANADA THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS INTO WESTERN CANADA. WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT AT 850MB AND LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL SEE TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE 50S. THE NORTHERN STREAM RIDGES NORTH INTO CANADA WHILE THE SOUTHERN STREAM TRACKS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES.
With high pressure building in from the west, winds will blow from the north northeast ranging from 3 to 10 mph. Readings are expected to fall into the low to mid 30s. The CONSALL guidance actually trended temperatures slightly warmer than previous runs, suggesting 33 to 36 degrees is likely in most locations. By early Sunday morning, temperatures will once again approach the low to mid 30s. Under southwest flow aloft, warm air advection will be ongoing, helping to insure warmer temperatures and fabulous weather.
The more amplified section of the upper trough was moving east across the Midwest this morning and will shift east across the Great Lakes States today and into New England tonight. The southern branch of the sheared H5 trough across KS early this morning will gradually shift southeast into OK. Exiting high pressure will bring increased south winds for Sunday. Limited mixing depths may keep highs from getting past the lower 60s.
159 PM EST SAT NOV 7 2015 AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION BY THIS EVENING.
WITH INFLUX OF COOLER AIR. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT HIGHER IN THE WEST AND COOLER IN THE EAST DUE TO INCREASED MIXING/RETURN FLOW IN THE WEST. MON: WITH LOW PRESSURE DEEPENING TO THE WEST.
159 PM EST SAT NOV 7 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.
Short range models indicate ridging aloft moving eastward across the Great Basin into the Central and Southern Rockies today. Under mostly sunny skies, look for highs up into the 50s(F) this afternoon with the lower 60s(F) possible in south central Kansas. This will begin draw slightly warmer air northward into the region, slowly eroding the colder air mass, especially across extreme southwest Kansas where south to southwesterly winds are likely as a developing lee side trough strengthens overnight.
/ISSUED 934 AM CST SAT NOV 7 2015/ Lift in association with a small wave sliding across TX and ahead of a southeastward advancing longer wave upper trough brought some very light rain to portions of SE OK this morning.
102 PM EST SAT NOV 7 2015 HIGH PRESSURE AND A COOL AIRMASS WILL CONTROL THE REGIONS WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND. MAINLY OF THE HIGH VARIETY. TODAY WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS. ONLY REACHING THE LOWER TO MID 50S. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL DOWN INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL BE OVER THE REGION ON SUNDAY. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER 50S.
CURRENT HIGHS LOOK GOOD WITH READINGS IN THE LOWER 60S. IN THE LOW 50S TO LOW 60S. COOLER AIRMASS INTO THE MIDSOUTH. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW 60S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. A NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE AREA.
EARLY MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH 500MB HEIGHTS SHOWED A POSITIVELY TILTED LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS CENTERED OVER THE MIDWEST. AS THIS TROUGH SHIFTS EASTWARD IMPRESSIVE 15 TO 20 M/HR HEIGHT RISES WILL SQUASH ANY UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION. AND AS MENTIONED ABOVE WINDS WILL BACK LATER THIS EVENING AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS SOUTHEAST. SO RAISED TONIGHTS TEMPS TO THE HIGHER END OF GUIDANCE. ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE BUFFALO RIDGE.
BRISK SOUTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS TO THE EAST. OTHERWISE FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS WITH TEMPERATURES REMAIN 5 TO 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN SEASONAL AVERAGES. ATTENTION TURNS TO THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH DEEPENING OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
1137 AM EST SAT NOV 7 2015 NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND CLOUDS TODAY. DRY AND COOL SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN. MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO FLOW UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST IN ADVANCE OF MID LEVEL TROUGH AND REINFORCING COLD FRONT. BEST MOISTURE WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH AND RIDGES WHERE CLOUDS WILL REMAIN OVERNIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EAST. THIS WILL DIMINISH TOWARD SUNRISE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. DRY AND COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE SUNDAY.
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT A BROAD HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE WILL PRODUCE DRY AND SEASONABLY MILD WEATHER OVER THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AND ON SUNDAY.
AND ATLANTIC TROPICAL/SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT SHOULD REMAIN EAST OF THE BAHAMAS. COLD FRONTS WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE FLORIDA KEYS.
/ISSUED 410 AM CST SAT NOV 7 2015/ (Today and tonight) Showers and a few thunderstorms will continue today across much of West Central Texas due to weak mid and upper level ascent and a cold front moving south across the area. Temperatures will be cooler with highs in the lower to mid 60s.
1144 AM EST SAT NOV 7 2015 AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION BY THIS EVENING.
500 HPA TROUGH AXIS MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH MUCH DRIER AIR MASS IN ITS WAKE. RESULTING IN AFTERNOON HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOW 40S ACROSS CENTRAL WISCONSIN TO THE UPPER 40S NEAR THE MN/IA BORDER. SURFACE WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.
Aloft a trough from the central Rockies to the desert southwest will provide large scale lift and push moisture up and over the front, resulting in the chance for showers and isolated thunderstorms today and tonight for mainly west Texas from the Big Bend region north to the central and northern Permian Basin.
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT IS PUSHING THROUGH A MOIST TROPICAL AIRMASS.
AT THAT TIME EVEN HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE LOOKS NIL SO SEE LITTLE RESTRICTION TO HEATING BY THE LOWERING MIDDAY SUN ANGLE. BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY LATE TONIGHT IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE BUFFALO RIDGE AREA.
THE POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES STRETCHING BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE OTHER FEATURE IS A RIDGE ACROSS THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST. THE COLD FRONT IS NOW TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA AND IS SLOWLY APPROACHING THE ATLANTIC COAST. COOLER AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT AS CLOUD COVER GRADUALLY DECREASES. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL TRY TO BUILD INTO THE AREA AS SPLIT UPPER FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE CONUS.
1239 PM EST SAT NOV 7 2015 NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND CLOUDS TODAY. DRY AND COOL SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN. MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO FLOW UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST IN ADVANCE OF MID LEVEL TROUGH AND REINFORCING COLD FRONT. BEST MOISTURE WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH AND RIDGES WHERE CLOUDS WILL REMAIN OVERNIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EAST. THIS WILL DIMINISH TOWARD SUNRISE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. CLEARING WITH DRY AND COOL HIGH PRESSURE SUNDAY.
POSITIVELY TILTED H5 TROF FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TO SOUTHWESTERN U. THEN RAIN WILL END FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR MOVES INTO OUR AREA WHILE H5 TROF MOVES EAST THRU THE OH VALLEY. WEAK COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THRU MIDDLE TN GENERALLY NEAR 60 DEGREES.
LONG WAVE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY APPROACHING IA WITH GENERAL SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE.
335 PM CST SAT NOV 7 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
1042 AM MST SAT NOV 7 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE ROCKIES AND CENTRAL US THROUGH THE WEEKEND BRINGING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS TO THE FORECAST AREA.
HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM 50 TO THE LOWER 50S. THE CLEAR SKIES AND DIMINISHING WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR A COLDER NIGHT THAN LAST WITH MOST LOCATIONS DROPPING TO FREEZING OR COLDER.
1117 AM EST SAT NOV 7 2015 AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION BY THIS EVENING.
1142 AM CST SAT NOV 7 2015 THE MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES SW ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS INTO CNTRL NM. AN AMPLE MOISTURE PLUME EXISTS E OF THE TROUGH GENERALLY E OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR OF NCNTRL TX. OUR COLD FRONT HAS NOW PUSHED S TO THE LA GULF COAST. WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR BEGINNING TO SPILL S ACROSS THE REGION.
1129 AM EST SAT NOV 7 2015 A COLD FRONT CROSSED THE REGION OVERNIGHT. WITH GUSTY WINDS USHERING IN A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS IN ITS WAKE FOR TODAY. EVEN COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY. GUSTY W/NW WINDS HAVE CONTINUE THIS MORNING BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD FRONT. BROAD UPPER LONG WAVE RIDGE AXIS REMAINS IN PLACE IN THE EAST AND AMPLIFIES IN RESPONSE TO THE WEST COAST DIGGING LONG WAVE TROUGH. THIS WILL MEAN HIGH PRESSURE BECOMING CENTERED OVER THE NORTHEAST WITH A SLOW WARMING TREND WITH SUNNY DAYS AND CLEAR NIGHTS THROUGH MIDWEEK. LIGHT WINDS AND MINIMAL SEAS THROUGH MIDWEEK UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
304 PM CST SAT NOV 7 2015 A cold night is on tap for eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas as temperatures are expected to drop into the upper 20s to around 40 across the area as high pressure at the surface continues to build into the region. Benign weather is anticipated until mid-week when the the next cold front is expected to sweep through the plains.
IT WILL BE RAW ACROSS THE REGION WITH CLOUDY NE FLOW IN COOL CONDITIONS AND WILL TREND FORECAST ON THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE WITH ONLY A 5 DEGREE DEPARTURE FROM LOWS AND HIGHS EACH DAY.
COOLER IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AND WARMER ON THE RIDGES. SOUTH PARK STILL QUITE A BIT WARMER THAN THIS MORNING BUT GRAND COUNTY JUST AS COLD. HIGHS OF 50-55F SHOULD BE REACHED ON MOST OF THE PLAINS ALTHOUGH IT COULD BE JUST A COUPLE DEGREES COOLER THAN THAT WHERE DEEPER INVERSIONS EXIST AROUND FORT COLLINS-GREELEY.
H8 front extends westward over Show Me State and strong upper jet will picks up this ahead of swift moving long wave trough over the center of the nation and push this entire system thru by this afternoon (Bluegrass region last to clear). Clouds Increase Sunday night ahead of a upper low coming out of the southern Sunflower State.
SLOWLY TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST AS DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION BEHIND THIS MORNING/S COLD FRONT. NAM12 & SOME OF THE HIGHER RES MODELS SHOW PRECIP MUCH MORE SCT IN NATURE.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN LAKE ERIE TONIGHT.
WINDS WERE A LITTLE TO HIGH TO ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO BOTTOM OUT THIS MORNING WITH NO LOCATION SUB- FREEZING. CONFIDENCE IS MUCH HIGHER IN WINDS BECOMING LIGHT TONIGHT DUE TO STRONGER SURFACE RIDGING SPREADING INTO THE REGION.
HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AS A TRANSITORY RIDGE RIDES OVER THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST. SW FLOW INCREASES OVER THE REGION AS THE PACIFIC TROUGH MAKES LANDFALL AND DIGS INTO THE GREAT BASIN.
THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT LONG WAVE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS SUPPORTING LOCAL HEIGHT RISES AND WAA. NORTHERN PERIPHERY IMPULSE TRAVERSING WESTERN CANADA WILL SUPPORT A WEAK TROUGH INTO THE REGION TOMORROW. LEE SIDE TROUGHING CURRENTLY SUPPORTING GUSTY SW WINDS OVER THE WESTERN FA. ONGOING LEE SIDE TROUGHING FURTHER ENHANCED BY A RIDGE TOPPING IMPULSE IN SW CANADA WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT BREEZY SW WINDS TONIGHT. A WEAK TROUGH WILL SAG SE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY. ASSOCIATED THERMAL RIDGE WILL TIME OVER THE FA. DIGGING WESTERN CONUS TROUGH WILL SUPPORT RE-NEWED PRESSURE FALLS IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES.
/ISSUED 1142 AM CST SAT NOV 7 2015/ THE MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES SW ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS INTO CNTRL NM. AN AMPLE MOISTURE PLUME EXISTS E OF THE TROUGH GENERALLY E OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR OF NCNTRL TX. OUR COLD FRONT HAS NOW PUSHED S TO THE LA GULF COAST. WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR BEGINNING TO SPILL S ACROSS THE REGION.
WIND FIELDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS COASTAL TROUGH/LOW OFF THE NE MX COAST DEEPENS.
THICK CLOUD COVER OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA TODAY IN RESPONSE TO SOUTHWARD MOVING COLD FRONT. HIGH TEMPS ON SUNDAY TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL DUE TO COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE DEPARTED COLD FRONT AS WELL AS RESIDUAL THICK CLOUD COVER.
FLOW ALOFT BACKS TO SOUTHWEST AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES TO OUR EAST. INDUCING WEAK SURFACE LEE TROUGHING TO DEVELOP. EVEN WARMER THAN TODAY WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
High continues to shift slowly eastward overnight, and with dry air mass, clear skies and light winds, expect most areas to fall at or below freezing tonight. Winds start to come around to southerly, as the high continues to move eastward on Sunday. A dry upper low moving out of the southwest will likely help mix out temperatures tomorrow, and should be a few degrees warmer than today.
1258 PM EST SAT NOV 7 2015 COOLER AND MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES RETURN THIS WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT. THIS TROUGH WILL PRODUCE SOME RAIN SHOWERS LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING THIS EVENING TO ALLOW SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS. OVERNIGHT THE BASE OF THE MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES FALLING TO ALLOW SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS. AS THE TROUGH EXITS EAST TOWARDS MORNING, SHOWERS WILL END AND DRIER, COOLER AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE TROUGH ON NW FLOW.
Limiting factor to getting a bit warmer on Sunday will be a steady NE surface flow.
A weak upper level trough over the southern Rockies will eject northeastward across the plains tonight and Sunday.
357 PM EST SAT NOV 7 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE STATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.
THE MAIN WX FEATURE AFFECTING MID TN THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DRY HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MID MS VALLEY. THE HIGH CENTER WILL MOVE ALONG THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT AND EXTEND DOWN INTO TN WITH DRIER AND COOLER AIR. BUT A GOOD DEAL OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL PERSIST INTO THE EVENING AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT LATE IN THE NIGHT FROM NW TO SE AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE AREA AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVES CLOSER. SUNDAY WILL BRING A SUNNY AND COOL MORNING WITH TEMPS RISING THROUGH THE 40S AND INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S BY NOON.
A RETURN TO WARM AND WINDY CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE FOUR CORNERS OF THE AMERICAN SOUTHWEST. WARM TEMPERATURES AND WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER MONTANA TOWARDS THE EDGE OF INFLUENCE FROM THE RIDGE.
The pesky cirrus that has been periodically affecting areas south of I-70 the last day or so should get shunted southward with time, as the upper trough currently overhead shifts east and spreads drier air into the area. Overnight, skies will be mainly clear as high pressure drifts eastward through the area.
COLD FRONT NOW SLICING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF ALABAMA CONTINUED TO PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS MORNING. AS HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH.
WSW UPPER FLOW OVER THE REGION BETWEEN LONGWAVE TROUGHINESS FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO BRING SERIES OF VORT MAXES OVER THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA IN WESTERN GULF EXPECTED TO MOVE ALONG FRONT INTO THE N CENTRAL GULF BY LATE SUNDAY.
AND SUNDAY UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS WISCONSIN MAY PRODUCE SOME SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES IN THE FAR NORTH EARLY TODAY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATES TO FALL BELOW FREEZING OVER ALL BUT THE IMMEDIATE LAKESHORE.
/ISSUED 520 AM CST SAT NOV 7 2015/ CLOUDS ON THE LOW END OF VFR WILL AFFECT THE DHT AND AMA TAF SITES THROUGH THE MID TO LATE MORNING. ELONGATED WEAKENING EAST-TO-WEST ORIENTED UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL LINGER THROUGH SUNDAY WITH LITTLE CONSEQUENCE BESIDES A FEW MID-HIGH CLOUDS.
1129 AM CST SAT NOV 7 2015 LATEST SFC ANALYSIS HAS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES BUT WITH AN EXTENSION EASTWARD INTO THE PLAINS AND MIDWEST. OVER E IOWA/W ILLINOIS WINDS WERE LIGHT OUT OF THE WEST AND TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S FOR MOST AREAS.
HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE BASINS WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER DESPITE THE LACK OF WIND. SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY THE PERIOD LOOKS TO START OFF RELATIVELY QUIET WITH HIGH PRESSURE HANGING ON FOR SUNDAY NIGHT.
TEMPS ROSE ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS THE WARNED ZONES AFTER 8 AM. OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TODAY. COOLER AIR WILL REMAIN TRAPPED IN THE VALLEYS THEREFORE LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED THERE AS COMPARED TO YESTERDAYS READINGS. A SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP ON SUNDAY AS THE NEXT PACIFIC TROUGH APPROACHES THE NORTHWEST COAST.
ANY MORNING CLOUDS IN THE EAST SHOULD CLEAR AS UPPER RIDGE STARTS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL MEAN TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL AT LEAST INTO THE LOW 60S SOUTH TO MID/UPPER 50S ELSEWHERE. WON/T GO WARMER BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE TEMPS EVEN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE THESE PROJECTED HIGHS WITH FULL SUNSHINE EXPECTED AND S/SW SFC WINDS.
MAX TEMPS TODAY SHOULD RUN NEAR TO JUST A FEW DEG F COOLER THAN YESTERDAY MOST LOCATIONS. AND SHADED TOWARD THE SLIGHTLY WARMER BLENDED/BIAS CORRECTED GUIDANCE NUMBERS.
411 PM EST SAT NOV 7 2015 DRY AND COOL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE TRAVELS EAST ACROSS THE AREA.
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO PASS TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.
EVEN WARMER AT 850 MB AND TEMPS IN THIS AIRMASS IN MONTANA IN THE LOW 60S AND CONSIDERING WARMTH TODAY THINK THE IDEA OF GOING A BIT HIGHER THAN MOST TEMP GUIDANCE IS REASONABLE.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN INLAND THROUGH SUNDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST.
204 PM EST SAT NOV 7 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE STATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.