Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1053 PM CST Thu Mar 11 2021 (This evening through Friday) The forecast the next 24 hours will be modulated by the cold front that has pushed southeast of I-44 today. The ongoing convection may reinforce the cold front and stall/delay its the northward advancement. Therefore, opted to trend toward the cooler end of guidance for tomorrow's highs given the abundant cloud cover/precipitation expected along and north of the effective surface front--especially since yesterday's runs of the global models (i.
Despite veering low-level flow to the northwest later this afternoon and more efficient CAA, a modest warm up will be felt felt as temperatures rise into the lower 50s for a high (cooler for locations along the shoreline). A strong pressure gradient ahead of the high pressure will promote wind gusts on the order of 25-30 mph today, during daylight hours.
1144 PM EST Thu Mar 11 2021 Another round of light rain showers will move through central PA tonight into Friday morning along a cold front. An additional one third of an inch of rain will be possible across portions of the Alleghenies, while only a couple of hundredths are expected in the lower Susquehanna Valley. Drier and cooler weather is in store for the weekend. High pressure building into the upper Ohio Valley Friday night will veer winds more northwesterly, while continuing to bring cooler air into the Commonwealth.
Rain showers have diminished across the southernmost CWA this morning as a cold front has settled along the Ohio River Valley. However, high pressure has moved in behind the front and will be keeping the CWA temporarily dry today. This evening a warm front associated with a low over the Southwestern US will build into the Midwest. Simultaneously, high pressure shifts over the Great Lakes region and will limit the northward extent of rainfall.
A deep trough is present over the western United States. A positive tilted structure to this upper low allowed a sub-tropical plume of moisture to flow directly over the Ozarks.
An upper level low pressure system over southern California this morning will move through the Desert Southwest and approach the central and southern Plains later tonight. Saturday into Saturday night is still looking on track for widespread rain and thunderstorm development as the upper low moves out over eastern Colorado. The upper low will be occluding by Saturday afternoon and evening.
556 AM CST Fri Mar 12 2021 (Today and tonight) A closed upper level low currently over southern California, will track east to near the Four Corners region by Saturday morning. Most of the activity is expected to remain farther north and west though, so will keep POPs on the low side. Expect another warm night, with overnight lows in the lower 60s.
An area of low pressure over the southern California coast this morning will continue to bring rain and snow to northern Arizona through Satruday.
With high pressure drifting southeast through the area expect these clouds to dissipate early, leading to a mostly sunny day with temperatures in the upper 30s to upper 40s from north to south across the forecast area. Winds will be light today, becoming southerly from west to east later in the day as the high pressure exits to the east and return flow develops. With WAA the lows tonight will be warmer than this morning's lows, mainly in the upper 20s to low 30s. Highs are expected to reach well into the 50s for most, except for the northwestern portion of the CWA where the recent snowfall will keep temperatures a few degrees cooler. A large bowling ball of an upper low currently over southern Cali and Nevada will slowly translate eastward to the Desert Southwest and southern Rockies Saturday.
At the surface, the pressure gradient between high pressure to the east and low pressure forming over West Texas will maintain breezy southeast winds across the region through the weekend. The onshore flow will allow temperatures to remain about 5 to 10 degrees above normal through Saturday with highs in the lower 80s to lower 90s each afternoon and lows tonight only dropping to near 70. While low level moisture will be elevated through Saturday, it will generally be confined below 850 mb and mid level ridging will help to keep any mentionable rain chances out of the picture, but cannot completely rule out a streamer shower or two, especially along the coast. With slightly elevated southeast swell continuing to move into the lower Texas waters today, the rip current risk will continue to be high.
Upper level ridging continues to build over the region today, while the cutoff low over southern California shifts eastward. Shallow, longwave ridging will prevail over the region through Saturday, as the California low crosses the 4-corners region. The upper low, and the vast majority of precip will remain well south of the CWA.
401 AM CST Fri Mar 12 2021 Already starting to see some light radar returns across north central Kansas this morning as cloud cover is on the increase across the local area ahead of an upper level low forecast to cross into the central Plains late in the weekend. with the EC/NAMnest both coming in the lower 50s.
236 AM PST Fri Mar 12 2021 Temperatures will trend warmer through Saturday under dry conditions.
433 AM MST Fri Mar 12 2021 High pressure builds into the area as a cut off low is settling over the southwestern US. As the low moves inland, a rex block will set up over the western half of the country that will bring persistent weather over this weekend.
Front should begin to slowly lift north throughout the day today in response to a developing surface cyclone in the Lee of the Rockies in southeast Colorado.
Warm and muggy overnight conditions are expected once again with low temperatures generally in the lower 60s tonight.
656 AM EST Fri Mar 12 2021 High pressure will remain across the region today. A weak backdoor cold front will drop into the area Saturday morning and likely linger in the vicinity through the weekend.
The combination of these winds and the low RH values will still bring at least near critical fire danger today.
551 AM CST Fri Mar 12 2021 Already starting to see some light radar returns across north central Kansas this morning as cloud cover is on the increase across the local area ahead of an upper level low forecast to cross into the central Plains late in the weekend. with the EC/NAMnest both coming in the lower 50s.
A cold front has dipped south to a Jonesboro to Union City line this morning. By Saturday afternoon the upper ridge really sharpens across the MS Valley in response to a deep upper low pushing into the plains.
Moderate to strong isentropic lift over the cooler air to the north will generate rain and scattered thunderstorms this morning, increasing this afternoon.
525 AM EST Fri Mar 12 2021 [Through 12Z Saturday] Fog is possible around the start of the TAF period as high pressure builds overhead. Upper level ridging will remain centered over the central Gulf of Mexico, keeping a dry northwesterly flow pattern in place aloft along with slowly rising heights over our region. Any fog that develops will dissipate during the morning hours, with occasional thin cirrus expected to spill overtop of the ridge over the region. Highs will continue on their upward trend, with temperatures in the lower 80s at most inland locations, and mid 70s at the area beaches. Overnight lows will be in the low to mid 50s, and fog, locally dense, is possible across northeast Florida.
(Today and tonight) A closed upper level low currently over southern California, will track east to near the Four Corners region by Saturday morning. Most of the activity is expected to remain farther north and west though, so will keep POPs on the low side. Expect another warm night, with overnight lows in the lower 60s.
Sprawling high pressure over the Midwest has brought clear skies and cooler temperatures to the area tonight.
342 AM CST Fri Mar 12 2021 Quieter and cooler today with a few areas of flurries this morning. Trending warmer for Saturday with highs well above normal.
725 AM EST Fri Mar 12 2021 Showers will exit the region this morning as a cold front moves into the Mid-Atlantic region. Otherwise, a cooler and drier air mass will settle in through the day. Broad high pressure will settle in over the Upper Ohio Valley through the weekend. Temperature should remain near seasonal averages, though slightly higher/lower temperatures remain possible dependent on the low track. Morning restrictions and light showers around MGW will dissipate as a cold front continues to move southward. The approach and passage of a dry cold front diving out of the Great Lakes this aftn/eve will cause the WNW wind to gusts up to 25kts, with strongest wind along the I-80 corridor.
Ridge extending north of the area will maintain easterly winds around 5-10 knots north of the Cape and 10-15 knots south.
456 AM PST Fri Mar 12 2021 A low pressure system over southern California will continue to move slowly east. Drier with slow warming for the weekend under weak high pressure.
Warm air and moisture advection in the lower levels will create another warm day as high temperatures reach the upper 70s, and a few locations may top out in the 80s. The low level south-southwest flow and moisture advection will converge against a surface cold front, currently over the Ohio Valley. This cold front will slowly drift southward throughout the day and will result in scattered showers this afternoon and evening, primarily for southern middle Tennessee. The upper level ridging in place will limit how far south the cold front will progress this evening, so areas south of 72 should stay mostly dry.
531 AM CST Fri Mar 12 2021 Fairly quiet weather will occur across the region today and tonight thanks to a large area of high pressure at the surface. The high is centered over North Dakota early this morning and will drift east and become centered over lower Michigan tonight. The ridge axis will become oriented east/west along the Interstate 90 corridor back into South Dakota.
An upper ridge will allow for continued dry weather through Saturday.
549 AM EST Fri Mar 12 2021 Showers will exit the region this morning as a cold front moves into the Mid-Atlantic region. The late night cold front will settle in over the Mid-Atlantic region this morning. Otherwise, cooler, and much drier air, will overspread the region promoting quiet weather for the rest of the day. Broad high pressure will settle in over the Upper Ohio Valley through the weekend. Temperature should remain near seasonal averages, though slightly higher/lower temperatures remain possible dependent on the low track. Lingering showers and MVFR/IFR cigs will continue for MGW through mid-morning as a cold front pushes southward.
536 AM CST Fri Mar 12 2021 Quieter and cooler today with a few areas of flurries this morning. Trending warmer for Saturday with highs well above normal.
/issued 410 AM CST Fri Mar 12 2021/ A deep upper level low currently over southern California will slowly move east over the next several days. Strong winds associated with this well developed feature will exist at all levels, pumping moisture in at the low levels with difluent flow enhancing lift in the upper levels. Tomorrow may be a repeat of today except the closer position of the upper low will push the dryline farther east limiting storm potential to mainly our eastern counties.
253 AM MST Fri Mar 12 2021 09z surface analysis had high over the upper Midwest with weak ridging over the CWA. Water vapour had upper low moving into southern CA with upper ridge over the CWA, but there was a weak impulse over southern WY which was creating some clouds and light precipitation into the southern reaches of the CWA. Main concern this forecast is CA upper low. Today/tonight, upper low moves to the four corners region by 12z Saturday. Upper trough will push into WY. Low pops warranted for aforementioned weak impulse and trough tonight. Saturday, upper low drifts eastward as upper ridge shifts east of the area.
330 AM CST Fri Mar 12 2021 Sprawling high pressure over the Midwest has brought clear skies and cooler temperatures to the area tonight.
/GG/ Today and Tonight: High pressure, off the east coast, will keep southerly winds over the area through the period with slowly increasing low level moisture. Despite the increase in moisture, ridging aloft will maintain the mid level warm layer preventing any convective potential. With the southerly low level flow and ridging aloft, temperatures will continue to be warm with highs today in the upper 70s/lower 80s.
Subtropical ridge remains over the area Saturday as a cutoff low moves into the Great Plains along the southern branch of a split flow pattern over the CONUS. One exception to this should occur Saturday afternoon as a back door cold front is forecast to slide into the area from the NE in a very similar manner to a wedge, providing a brief respite from the moisture advection for at least a few hours and possibly cooling temperatures off for those few hours as well.
356 AM MST Fri Mar 12 2021 09z surface analysis had high over the upper Midwest with weak ridging over the CWA. Water vapour had upper low moving into southern CA with upper ridge over the CWA, but there was a weak impulse over southern WY which was creating some clouds and light precipitation into the southern reaches of the CWA. Main concern this forecast is CA upper low. Today/tonight, upper low moves to the four corners region by 12z Saturday. Upper trough will push into WY. Low pops warranted for aforementioned weak impulse and trough tonight. Saturday, upper low drifts eastward as upper ridge shifts east of the area.
411 AM CST Fri Mar 12 2021 Today and Tonight: High pressure, off the east coast, will keep southerly winds over the area through the period with slowly increasing low level moisture. Despite the increase in moisture, ridging aloft will maintain the mid level warm layer preventing any convective potential. With the southerly low level flow and ridging aloft, temperatures will continue to be warm with highs today in the upper 70s/lower 80s.
Rain will begin to expand northeastward as low to mid-level isentropic lift strengthens ahead of the trough.
410 AM CST Fri Mar 12 2021 A deep upper level low currently over southern California will slowly move east over the next several days. Strong winds associated with this well developed feature will exist at all levels, pumping moisture in at the low levels with difluent flow enhancing lift in the upper levels. Tomorrow may be a repeat of today except the closer position of the upper low will push the dryline farther east limiting storm potential to mainly our eastern counties.
439 AM MST Fri Mar 12 2021 High pressure builds into the area as a cut off low is settling over the southwestern US. As the low moves inland, a rex block will set up over the western half of the country that will bring persistent weather over this weekend.
Satellite imagery depicts a deep upper low centered over southern California early this morning. The higher elevation valleys east of Tucson may see a dusting of snow.
High pressure centered over the area will slowly drift east through Saturday night, with a continuation of mostly clear skies and generally light winds across the area.
Currently, weak northwest flow aloft with an upper level ridge axis extending into the Northern Rockies and a large area of low pressure over the Desert Southwest.
Tonight and Saturday With high pressure conditions and clear skies, temperatures and dew points will continue to be the main concerns in short-term forecast. Relatively cool and drier air continued to move across the region through the afternoon today, behind the cold front that passed through the area earlier this morning. Despite the cooler temperatures, highs still pushed into the 30s across the region, under clear skies and ample sunshine. Low temperatures will range from the single digits in the north to the lower 20s near the Fox Valley. There are two chances of precipitation associated with weakening upper lows moving from the Four Corners region to the Northern Ohio Valley.
Strong upper level ridging centered over the Gulf of Mexico and extending north into the southeast CONUS expected to persist with large closed upper low over the southern Rockies trapped under an even larger upper ridge over the western CONUS, resulting in *very* slow eastward progression. These types of patterns are known for having poor forecast reliability, mainly in extended periods, due to timing uncertainty of "kicker" waves kicking out main, closed upper low. Stationary front will remain just to our north extending along periphery of ridge over TN/KY thru the weekend.
327 PM EST Fri Mar 12 2021 High pressure will give way to a weak backdoor cold front dropping into the area Saturday morning which will likely linger in the vicinity through the weekend. High pressure will prevail but a weak backdoor cold front should push into SC late as reinforcing high pressure builds southeast from the Great Lakes into the Ohio Valley, although it will remain too dry for any rainfall. Lows will generally be in the lower to mid 50s inland and mid to upper 50s closer to the coast. Mid-level high pressure will prevail in the Gulf of Mexico as a backdoor cold front slowly shifts south across the area on Saturday.
114 PM EST Fri Mar 12 2021 High pressure will remain across the region today. A weak backdoor cold front will drop into the area Saturday morning and likely linger in the vicinity through the weekend. 1 PM observations indicate temperatures generally in the mid to upper 70s inland but much cooler in the mid to upper 60s at the coast under sunny skies. Tonight: High pressure will prevail but a weak backdoor cold front should push into SC late, although it will remain too dry for any rainfall. Lows will generally be in the lower to mid 50s inland and mid to upper 50s closer to the coast.
1051 AM MST Fri Mar 12 2021 09z surface analysis had high over the upper Midwest with weak ridging over the CWA. Water vapour had upper low moving into southern CA with upper ridge over the CWA, but there was a weak impulse over southern WY which was creating some clouds and light precipitation into the southern reaches of the CWA. Main concern this forecast is CA upper low. Today/tonight, upper low moves to the four corners region by 12z Saturday. Upper trough will push into WY. Low pops warranted for aforementioned weak impulse and trough tonight. Saturday, upper low drifts eastward as upper ridge shifts east of the area.
A cold front has moved through Jackson, TN and is approaching the Northern Memphis Metropolitan area. The front and associated showers should increase in coverage and sink a bit farther south this afternoon, then retreat back north as a warm front later tonight. A cold front has dipped south to a Jonesboro to Union City line this morning. By Saturday afternoon the upper ridge really sharpens across the MS Valley in response to a deep upper low pushing into the plains.
with current readings ranging from the lower 20s across parts of eastern upper Michigan, to the lower 40s down near Saginaw Bay. High pressure will pass directly across our area tonight, pushing into the northern Ohio Valley on Saturday. In addition, a moisture starved cold front moves through Saturday evening bringing another shot of cooler air.
1121 AM CST Fri Mar 12 2021 Already starting to see some light radar returns across north central Kansas this morning as cloud cover is on the increase across the local area ahead of an upper level low forecast to cross into the central Plains late in the weekend. with the EC/NAMnest both coming in the lower 50s.
1153 AM CST Fri Mar 12 2021 Quieter and cooler today with a few areas of flurries this morning. Trending warmer for Saturday with highs well above normal.
302 PM EST Fri Mar 12 2021 High pressure builds in out of the north and keeps conditions dry and seasonable through the start of the weekend.
1013 AM EST Fri Mar 12 2021 A weak cold front will move southeast across the area this evening.
1259 PM EST Fri Mar 12 2021 High pressure will provide dry and cool weather over the weekend.
An area of low pressure over the southern California coast this morning will continue to bring rain and snow to northern Arizona through Saturday.
257 PM EST Fri Mar 12 2021 A cold front will move south across the area and stall in the vicinity this weekend, bringing cooler temperatures with little to no precipitation.
A slow moving cold front continues to advect through south central/east KY this morning with some prefrontal showers evident on radar (and surface obs) across portions of southwest VA and northeast TN. Moisture continues to increase across the region as a cold front slowly shifts southward out of KY. CDG Chattanooga Airport, TN 56 69 53 76 55 / 30 20 10 10 20 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 51 60 51 65 50 / 50 40 30 30 20 Oak Ridge, TN 51 60 50 65 49 / 50 40 30 30 20 Tri Cities Airport, TN 46 59 45 59 44 / 40 30 40 50 20.
Clouds moving into the southwest will keep temperatures in the low 40s with low to mid 30s across much of the forecast area where radiational cooling will be more efficient. During the daytime hours tomorrow, this front will continue to meander well south of the forecast area with weak high pressure across central Indiana.
The boundary will remain largely in place until tomorrow night when it begins to lift northward with the approach of the next low pressure system.
Only minor updates in the near term with highs today a few to several degrees warmer than yesterday, near seasonable values, under largely mostly sunny skies.
825 AM MST Fri Mar 12 2021 High pressure aloft will keep the area dry with relatively light winds through the weekend.
342 PM EST Fri Mar 12 2021 A cold front over lower Michigan will move across the area tonight.
The light winds and abundant low level moisture will provide a favorable environment for fog development early Saturday morning so maintained the lower visibilities already included in the TAFs. and cooler over Beaumont.
1106 AM EST Fri Mar 12 2021 Showers will exit the region this morning as a cold front moves into the Mid-Atlantic region. A drier and cooler air mass will provide a mostly sunny afternoon, with only a few high clouds at times. Broad high pressure will settle in over the Upper Ohio Valley through the weekend. Temperature should remain near seasonal averages, though slightly higher/lower temperatures remain possible dependent on the low track. Morning restrictions and light showers around MGW will dissipate as a cold front continues to move southward. The approach and passage of a dry cold front diving out of the Great Lakes this aftn/eve will cause the WNW wind to gusts up to 25kts, with strongest wind along the I-80 corridor.
1215 PM EST Fri Mar 12 2021 Showers will exit the region this morning as a cold front moves into the Mid-Atlantic region. A drier and cooler air mass will provide a mostly sunny afternoon, with only a few high clouds at times. Broad high pressure will settle in over the Upper Ohio Valley through the weekend. Temperature should remain near seasonal averages, though slightly higher/lower temperatures remain possible dependent on the low track. VFR conditions with passing cirrus are expected through the TAF period due to high pressure. The approach and passage of a dry cold front diving out of the Great Lakes this aftn/eve will cause the WNW wind to gusts up to 25kts, with the strongest along the I-80 corridor.
A slow moving cold front continues to advect through south central/east KY this morning with some prefrontal showers evident on radar (and surface obs) across portions of southwest VA and northeast TN. Chattanooga Airport, TN 76 56 70 53 76 / 30 30 20 10 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 71 50 61 51 65 / 50 50 40 30 30 Oak Ridge, TN 71 50 62 50 65 / 60 50 40 30 30 Tri Cities Airport, TN 64 45 60 45 59 / 70 40 30 40 50.
GAH MORNING DISCUSSION: High pressure builds into the area as a cut off low is settling over the southwestern US. As the low moves inland, a rex block will set up over the western half of the country that will bring persistent weather over this weekend.