Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
With mdt/hvy LES bands under ne flow still streaming into n central Upper MI, the addition of healthy forcing/mdt to hvy synoptic snow will result in several hrs of very hvy snowfall from Baraga County to western Alger County thru at least mid evening, particularly focused in the high terrain of Marquette County. Colder than normal conditions prevail into the first week of March when ensemble guidance indicates a robust signal for warmer than normal temps.
Temperatures will continue to fall tonight, reaching the lower teens northwest of the IL river to the middle 20s in southeast IL.
Wintry precipitation in the form of freezing rain/sleet/light snow will occur at the terminals of KHRO/KBPK/KLIT/KHOT/KADF beginning at 23/15Z or by noon on Wednesday and remain intermittently through the forecast period.
Early this morning, the center of an Arctic high pressure extended from northeast Montana, through western North Dakota, and into central South Dakota, leading to clear skies and light winds across much of the forecast area. Aloft, flow across the state was zonal, with troughing digging across the southwest CONUS. Flow aloft across the region is expected to stay northwesterly in response to ridging building over the Pacific Northwest. As this ridging amplifies and the aforementioned Arctic high exits to our east, we begin a steady warming trend through the end of the week.
422 AM MST Wed Feb 23 2022 Longwave trough remains idling in place across the Rockies through the next 36 hours, with lobes rotating through the region. Colder temperatures again keep snow production lower, with only an inch or two for the higher western mountains. Temperatures will remain very cold through the next 36 hours as the trough keeps the cold airmass in place.
This is thanks to a pronounced deep layered high pressure that is parked over the Gulf of Mexico and extends into the western North Atlantic. Said high pressure is helping to maintain northeast to east winds across the island chain this morning. High pressure will remain in control across the region for the next couple of days.
Cold front is gradually working its way toward the coast early this morning. Behind the front, cooler temperatures prevail with readings in a mid/upper 40s to mid/upper 50s range. Have adjusted temperatures (both lows and highs) over the next two days a little cooler, and have kept period of rain in the forecast too as the southwest flow aloft persists and and 850mb front remains to our west. Lows tonight will bottom out in the mid/upper 30s inland to the low/mid 50s coast. Thursday night should be a little cooler with lows in the low/mid 30s well inland to the mid/upper 40s coast.
Temperatures will also trend warmer through the end of the week; since days are starting to get longer and the sun angle is a bit higher in the sky.
Much cooler today and Thursday with temperatures remaining below average through the weekend.
Temperatures will struggle to reach the low 20s today as cold-air advection continues with a northeasterly wind. Forecast soundings indicate there may be a brief period of freezing drizzle before the column fully saturates into the DGZ.
The upper trof to our west will continue to direct a steady stream of short waves in our direction as it translates eastward. A more robust period of snow will arrive late tonight and into Thursday morning as the axis of the upper trof moves across the region.
This morning, temperatures are ranging from near zero to the lower teens with sub-zero wind chills across the forecast area. With the cold airmass in place and a trough translating across the western states today, the stage will be set for another round of light winter precipitation beginning today and continuing through the day Thursday. Broad scale isentropic lift will advect this lower mid- level moisture northwards today and tomorrow as lift increases ahead of the approaching winter system. Dry air in the lower levels will prevent snow from reaching the surface initially, and accumulating snowfall will hold off until the boundary layer can saturate. Regardless, overall snowfall accumulations will be on the light side with the higher amounts of up to an inch or two.
Cold front now pushing through northern middle TN.
A digging trough over the Desert Southwest, southwest flow aloft over the Mid-South, will bring an extensive period of overrunning precipitation. The cold air is filtering in behind the front will bring icy conditions in the form of freezing rain. Freezing rain accumulation up to a half inch in spots is likely. As the precipitation moves out with the cold front the rest of the area could see some snow flurries.
A wintry mix of sleet, freezing rain, freezing drizzle, and snow will begin today and continue into Thursday. Areas along and south of a line from Roaring River State Park to Eminence, Missouri could receive freezing rain ice accumulations ranging from 0.
912 AM EST Wed Feb 23 2022 Current surface analysis shows high pressure ridge over the adjacent Atlantic with axis right over the region this morning. High pressure will slide eastward further offshore which will allow a light southwest wind develop across most the region, with the exception with southeast winds near coast. Forecast on track, with afternoon high in the lower- mid 80s inland (close to record highs) with upper 70s along the coast. Areas of fog early this morning will give way to mostly sunny skies and unseasonably warm temperatures, with afternoon highs in the lower-mid 80s inland, close to record highs, with upper 70s along the coast.
With high pressure building in overhead today, below normal temperatures are expected.
Winds will lighten up through the day as high pressure builds in. This may not be the case across southeast MN where a slightly warmer column suddenly yields a considerably deeper DGZ (10-15 kft deep). QPF spread is still quite large considering the high snow ratios where only a few hundredths here or there could result in an inch of accumulation difference. Kept the QPF forecast very near WPC and the ensemble mean, resulting in accumulations of 1 to 3 inches and the highest amounts in the southeast where dendrites are most likely.
As the mean trough axis of the longwave trough currently over Nevada and the associated front moves closer to the region, better moisture and upper-air dynamics moves into Arizona. Gusty winds across the high terrain may also further reduce visibility in areas of blowing and drifting snow. Snowfall amounts remain largely the same with this mornings forecast package; 1-4 inches in the lower elevations between 4000 and 5000 feet, 4-8 inches between 5000 and 6500 feet, and 8-14 inches expected for elevations above 6500 feet. Showers are expected to linger over the upslope areas of the high terrain the longest in the northwest flow behind the front. Low temperatures are expected to fall to the mid 20s/upper 10s across the lower elevations and mid 10s to near 0 across the high terrain, with wind chill values around 5 to 10 degrees colder.
With the dry high pressure over the CWA, kept a dry forecast for today. The upper level trough will cross the area late tonight through Thursday, bringing mostly cloudy skies to this CWA, and perhaps light snow into the far southern portion of the CWA.
CD Chattanooga Airport, TN 62 49 72 50 61 / 60 30 40 60 60 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 59 46 65 50 61 / 70 40 70 60 70 Oak Ridge, TN 57 44 63 47 59 / 60 50 80 70 70 Tri Cities Airport, TN 60 45 61 49 61 / 60 80 90 40 80.
A few light snow showers rotating around a low pressure center down across NV/UT may brush into the srn/ern highlands today, producing a dusting to 1 inch of fresh snow for some spots. Otherwise, we're done with this trough although still subject to the ongoing frigid airmass.
629 AM EST Wed Feb 23 2022 Much colder early today with patchy freezing drizzle ending as arctic flurries and light lake snow showers spread in from the west.
321 AM CST Wed Feb 23 2022 Cold front now pushing through northern middle TN.
The upper trof to our west will continue to direct a steady stream of short waves in our direction as it translates eastward. A more robust period of snow will arrive late tonight and into Thursday morning as the axis of the upper trof moves across the region. Ensemble guidance is showing a strong signal for a pattern shift away from bitter cold to a much warmer, though continued dry, regime as the western ridge becomes reestablished and positive height anomalies build through the weekend.
That being said, we encourage you to bundle up if heading outdoors this morning! Shortly after daybreak, expect Arctic high pressure to build overhead, allowing quiet conditions to prevail for much of the day. Currently have highs struggling into the single digits across much of the area, with those along and south of Hwy-20 possibly warming into the lower teens. Nonetheless, will still be quite a brisk Wednesday! Upper level trough near the Rockies looks to eject northeastward towards the Northern Plains overnight, causing unsettled weather to once again return to the forecast.
(Today and tonight) Certainly a much more convective morning than originally thought as storms with sleet, freezing rain, and even small hail at times continues to push north across the Big Country early this morning. Freezing line has continued south and will approach I- 10 by sunrise, meaning that most of the precipitation today will fall as some sort of wintry mix. Given the huge warm nose which isn't going anywhere, should be a mix of freezing rain and sleet for most areas. Again, freezing rain and sleet, with enough accumulation that the Winter Weather Advisory should remain in effect. Will need to keep a close eye on the northern and eastern Big Country, which will see the highest accumulation and will need to be monitored in case a Warning may be required.
520 AM CST Wed Feb 23 2022 (Today and tonight) Certainly a much more convective morning than originally thought as storms with sleet, freezing rain, and even small hail at times continues to push north across the Big Country early this morning. Freezing line has continued south and will approach I- 10 by sunrise, meaning that most of the precipitation today will fall as some sort of wintry mix. Given the huge warm nose which isn't going anywhere, should be a mix of freezing rain and sleet for most areas. Again, freezing rain and sleet, with enough accumulation that the Winter Weather Advisory should remain in effect. Will need to keep a close eye on the northern and eastern Big Country, which will see the highest accumulation and will need to be monitored in case a Warning may be required.
High pressure will be moving slowly east and be over the area tonight into Thursday as winds continue to lighten. Cold airmass under the high will remain in place, though it will get slowly modified over the coming couple days. 500 mb heights indicate positive tilted trough from Hudson Bay WSW into southern Saskatchewan and Montana.
Cool and dry into the weekend with widespread freezing low temperatures in the early morning hours. Temperatures trend warmer towards the end of the week. Temperatures this morning have cooled to near or below freezing for much of interior Northern California. The breeze has helped to keep the temperature readings in those areas a tad warmer than nearby areas. However, due to the relatively dry and cool air in place, the breeze will make it feel cooler in those areas with current wind chill values dropping down into the 20s and 30s in the Sacramento Valley and single digits to teens in the foothills and mountains. Breezy winds will also trend lower by the evening as gradients relax and high pressure rebuilds over northern California.
Chilly low temperatures will set in overnight with near freezing values spreading into the Central and Santa Barbara Coasts, Santa Clarita Valley, and eastern Ventura County Valleys. A change is in store for Thursday as flow shifts to offshore and temperatures begin to trend warmer.
Below average temperatures will persist through the week with sub-freezing overnight and early morning temperatures across the interior. Isolated to scattered rain showers persist out over the Pacific, mainly off of the Big Sur coastline, as the mid/upper level trough extends across the region. Meanwhile, cold air advection associated with this system is resulting in temperatures of 5 to 10 deg F cooler compared to 24 hours ago. Thus, several hours of freezing temperatures are likely over most interior locations of the San Francisco Bay Area and Central Coast. Additionally, areas even near the coast will drop into the low/mid 30s with the potential for some frost development.
(Issued 358 AM CST Wed Feb 23 2022) Today through Thursday night: Light snow flurries will gradually come to end this morning across southeastern Wisconsin as the lingering low level trough moves out of the state. Meanwhile, arctic high pressure is moving southeast across the Northern Plains into Great Lakes Region this morning. As the high pressure builds in the brisk northwesterly winds will gradually weaken this morning. The boundary layer flow will veer to northeasterly tonight as the high pressure begins to build in overhead of the state.
SHORT TERM (Today through Thursday): This short term forecast for Deep South Texas has been difficult to forecast due to uncertainties in timing/location and intensity of this incoming weak cold front. The high pressure system over the Gulf of Mexico seems to be the major culprit in interfering with the front's intensity and movement through Texas. The ridge continues to build through Wednesday which affects the trough trying to strengthen over the Four Corners region. The strength of this mid- level ridge forces the front to retreat back into CRP's CWA by Thursday afternoon. This is a few degrees cooler than the previous forecast due to CAA making its way through the CWA on Wednesday. Winds turn easterly by Thursday afternoon helping to increase dew points and surely affecting the low temperatures tomorrow night.
334 AM CST Wed Feb 23 2022 A cold and mostly dry day is in store across central Illinois with high temperatures ranging from the lower 20s northwest of the Illinois River to the lower 30s south of I-70. A cold front has surged well southeast of the region early this morning:however, low clouds and scattered flurries persist across much of the KILX CWA. This feature will interact with the stalling frontal boundary to produce a swath of overrunning precipitation from the Ozarks northeastward into the lower Ohio River Valley later today. Thermal profiles even support some sleet and/or freezing rain across the far SE along/south of a Flora to Robinson line. The highest snowfall rates will occur Thursday afternoon, with lighter snow lingering through the night. with the ECMWF being much warmer than the GFS.
358 AM CST Wed Feb 23 2022 (Issued 358 AM CST Wed Feb 23 2022) Today through Thursday night: Light snow flurries will gradually come to end this morning across southeastern Wisconsin as the lingering low level trough moves out of the state. Meanwhile, arctic high pressure is moving southeast across the Northern Plains into Great Lakes Region this morning. As the high pressure builds in the brisk northwesterly winds will gradually weaken this morning. The boundary layer flow will veer to northeasterly tonight as the high pressure begins to build in overhead of the state.
429 AM CST Wed Feb 23 2022 Arctic air continues to make its presence felt across the central Plains with a 1047mb high pressure system centered over the Dakotas. Later tonight and into Thursday, the large area of high pressure will move east into Minnesota, and a broad positively-tilted wave will move across the central Plains.
242 AM MST Wed Feb 23 2022 Longwave trough remains idling in place across the Rockies through the next 36 hours, with lobes rotating through the region. Colder temperatures again keep snow production lower, with only an inch or two for the higher western mountains. Temperatures will remain very cold through the next 36 hours as the trough keeps the cold airmass in place.
Brisk northerly winds will make for a cold day, with highs struggling to reach the freezing mark. Today through Thursday night Trof continues to move across the Great Basin today, bringing isolated to scattered snow shower activity this morning, tapering off this afternoon. Ridging will try to push in from the West on Thursday but a slider trof will prevent that from happening as it quickly clips northeast Nevada. The system's cold front, however, will bring another reinforcing shot of cold air, and therefore the lows on Thursday night are expected to remain in the single digits.
553 AM CST Wed Feb 23 2022 A cold and mostly dry day is in store across central Illinois with high temperatures ranging from the lower 20s northwest of the Illinois River to the lower 30s south of I-70. A cold front has surged well southeast of the region early this morning:however, low clouds and scattered flurries persist across much of the KILX CWA. This feature will interact with the stalling frontal boundary to produce a swath of overrunning precipitation from the Ozarks northeastward into the lower Ohio River Valley later today. Thermal profiles even support some sleet and/or freezing rain across the far SE along/south of a Flora to Robinson line. The highest snowfall rates will occur Thursday afternoon, with lighter snow lingering through the night. with the ECMWF being much warmer than the GFS.
/Issued 330 AM EST Wed Feb 23 2022/ This morning the cold front responsible for our wet weather across NW GA overnight was positioned to the west of the CWA slowly moving southeastward. With continued moisture advection into the area and the stalled warm front lingering across the CWA we could see some isentropic upglide Thursday morning across northern GA will light accumulations. Thursday SWRLY flow aloft will once again remain over the area thanks to upper level high pressure across the Gulf Coast and an upper trough moving through the South Plains.
226 PM CST Wed Feb 23 2022 West Texas Mesonet observations, as of 1 PM, show temperatures mainly in the low 20s west of the Caprock escarpment and in the upper teens east of the escarpment. An upper-level trough, moving into the 4-corners region as of 1 PM, will continue to move east towards the area through today. As the trough to our west moves closer, winds off the deck will become southeasterly, and moist isentropic upglide will increase. With this increase in isentropic upglide and increase in upslope flow with easterly winds, the near-surface conditions should be allowed to saturate, resulting in freezing drizzle and snow mostly east of the Caprock escarpment with lower chances west of the escarpment. As the upper trough moves closer, dynamic lift will increase over the FA.
Under confluent flow in the upper levels, high pressure will remain through the short term period. Though the nearby center of the high will bring lighter winds, there should be enough of an overlap between coldest temperatures and an adequate pressure gradient over north central North Dakota to necessitate a Wind Chill Warning.
Looks like a 2-5 type event with the higher numbers in the east being helped along by the lake effect/enhancement.
Cold Hangs on Into Weekend But Improving Confidence Short Term: High High pressure in control today with mid to high level moisture returning to the region from the southwest. Low pressure over the Rockies will begin to move east tonight; with area of warm air advection beginning to move northeast as trough aloft begins to take shape just to our south by tonight. This will lead to widespread 2 to 3 inches of snow with the highest totals along the IA-MN border and along and east of I35 corridor; closer to Highway 63.
Overall the result will likely be temperatures about 4-7 degrees warmer on average the the next overnight period, with winds continuing to lighten up as the sfc pgf weakens.
Large upper trough over much of the western U. A reinforcing shot of cold air is expected to arrive on Thursday in the form of a cold front from the northwest.
An area of low pressure aloft back over/near the four corners region will begin to work its way northeast toward the central plains as well. While this area of low pressure works across the region, mainly south of this CWA, the northern edge of its snowfall footprint may make it all the way to the Jones/Lyman/Buffalo/Hyde and Hand county region of this CWA Thursday morning.
Below average temperatures will persist through the week with sub-freezing overnight and early morning temperatures across the interior. Afternoon temperatures will only warm into the 50s for most urban locations (40s in the higher terrain) this afternoon.
945 AM CST Wed Feb 23 2022 Cold high pressure persists this morning, with sunny skies. Early this morning, the center of an Arctic high pressure extended from northeast Montana, through western North Dakota, and into central South Dakota, leading to clear skies and light winds across much of the forecast area. Aloft, flow across the state was zonal, with troughing digging across the southwest CONUS. Flow aloft across the region is expected to stay northwesterly in response to ridging building over the Pacific Northwest. As this ridging amplifies and the aforementioned Arctic high exits to our east, we begin a steady warming trend through the end of the week.
301 PM EST Wed Feb 23 2022 Ridging remains the dominant feature across the Caribbean and the Gulf of Mexico. Convection is in short supply across the Caribbean, despite the broad belt of easterlies racing west along the southern flank of the subtropical ridge. Temperatures are in the lower 80s and dewpoints are near 70.
1157 AM CST Wed Feb 23 2022 A cold and mostly dry day is in store across central Illinois with high temperatures ranging from the lower 20s northwest of the Illinois River to the lower 30s south of I-70. A cold front has surged well southeast of the region early this morning:however, low clouds and scattered flurries persist across much of the KILX CWA. This feature will interact with the stalling frontal boundary to produce a swath of overrunning precipitation from the Ozarks northeastward into the lower Ohio River Valley later today. Thermal profiles even support some sleet and/or freezing rain across the far SE along/south of a Flora to Robinson line. The highest snowfall rates will occur Thursday afternoon, with lighter snow lingering through the night. with the ECMWF being much warmer than the GFS.
Temps tonight will be borderline for a period of rain/freezing rain across our extreme northwest.
Upper subsidence from the upper ridge will bring well above normal temperatures to the forecast area again this afternoon, topping out in the upper 70s to around 80. Tonight, fog development is again likely as deep low level southerly flow over cooler Gulf/protected waters and light surface winds are expected. Low temperatures in the low to mid 60s expected. Even with reduced heating as the cloud and fog mix out, another day of temperatures rising to well above seasonal norms is expected due to strong upper subsidence from the nearby upper ridge/high.
An upper level trough will pass well to our north over the Central Rockies into the Central Plains with some upper level jet energy overhead. In areas where temperatures drop to or below freezing, a mix with or changeover to freezing rain/freezing drizzle is expected. While diurnal temperature ranges will be rather small with well below normal temperatures expected, isentropic lifting will end across the Rio Grande Plains on Thursday allowing for some decrease in clouds and warmer high temperatures there. Temperatures will warm a few degrees Thursday night with freezing temperatures retreating to the Hill Country and Edwards Plateau. This will be rain across the south and a mix of rain and freezing rain across the north.
High pressure is along the ND/MN border, and will drift ne toward northern MN. Ridging extending east from the high will sharpen into the northern lakes. Otherwise, as the high moves off to our east, a developing area of low pressure will approach from the southwest.