Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Mixing to that depth along with continued weak low-level warm air advection supports our current forecast highs, ranging from the mid to upper 80s F in central ND to the lower 90s F in the west. A mid/upper level ridge over the western US and Rockies will continue to push into the Dakotas today and tonight. The cool and moist high pressure system that brought fog to our area over the weekend has moved east into Minnesota and the western Great Lakes. The western ridge will bring a warm and dry airmass farther east into the Dakotas today and tonight. Light southerly winds should prevail with developing low pressure in the lee of the Rockies continuing.
High pressure ridge centered over New England will continue down the Appalachians, with lower dew points filtering into NE Georgia for much of today. Low pressure will shift from north Florida to just off the GA/FL/SC coast today and intensify in the South Atlantic Bight. The NHC has already identified this low pressure area as Potential Tropical Depression Ten, and expect it to become Tropical Storm Irma over the next 24 hours. As this low tracks northeastward along the Carolina coasts, moisture will funnel back into central/middle Georgia. The combination of the high pressure ridge and the developing low will allow the tight pressure gradient to persist over the state today, resulting in breezy conditions. Additional moisture into the state and the retreating high pressure ridge will leave the state in a more favorable condition for diurnal precip development.
/issued 546 AM CDT Mon Aug 28 2017/ Most readings are in the lower 70s, both temps and dew points under clouds making it muggy.
Recent WPC discussion highlights strong low level moisture convergence coupled with favorable upper jet and incoming upper trough.
Otherwise, the upper low will slowly track across srn WI today and into nrn IN later tnt. At the sfc, a weak inverted trough will slide ssewd into IL and IN. Some hint of the inverted trough having a say in some vertical motion as well.
clear skies currently over the area with high pressure over the Plains Region. High temperatures in the low to upper 80s. ging in the mid 50s to the lower 60s. the region's weather will focus on a large H5 ridge sitting over the western half of the country.
A well developed marine layer persists this morning under strong mid to upper level high pressure that is centered over the southwestern United States.
633 AM CDT Mon Aug 28 2017 A cold front will drop south into the state today.
clear skies currently over the area with high pressure over the Plains Region. temperatures are currently ranging in the mid 50s to the lower 60s. the region's weather will focus on a large H5 ridge sitting over the western half of the country.
544 AM MDT Mon Aug 28 2017 Upper-level ridging will continue to build through mid-week across the central Rockies. A few afternoon thunderstorms are possible on Tue & Wed as the models do show some weak midlevel energy traversing the flow along the edge of the ridge and easterly surface winds likely helping keep low-level moisture in place with dew points in the 45 to 55 degree range over the high plains.
Developing low pressure along the coast near the Florida/Georgia border is producing a breezy southerly wind flow. The low is forecast to lift slowly north, but trailing trough from it to the southwest and Atlantic ridge nosing into the northern Bahamas will keep the pressure gradient tightened across the waters the rest of today, and possibly into tonight in the north.
Temperatures are not expected to be quite as warm along the coast, but still pleasantly warmer than normal. Another hot and dry day is in store for northwest California as high pressure continues to dominate the West Coast. The upper level ridge of high pressure has not moved or weakened much at all since yesterday, and as a result a near repeat of interior temperatures can be expected with afternoon highs reaching 100 to just shy of 110 over a broad area. As a result, another warm day is expected along the coast, although perhaps a few degrees cooler and a few more clouds than yesterday.
627 AM CDT Mon Aug 28 2017 Surface ridging will continue to build in from the north today while an upper trough maintains its hold over the Great Lakes.
1046 AM EDT Mon Aug 28 2017 Potential Tropical Cyclone Ten is expected to track along the Carolina coast through Tuesday before merging with a frontal zone and moving out to sea Tuesday night.
Strong high pressure will remain in control through the week. Due to the location of the high, the airmass over much of our area will have varying degrees of a subsidence cap that will limit convective development.
932 AM EDT Mon Aug 28 2017 An area of low pressure off the Southeast Coast will strengthen and lift northeastward through tonight. It will also be breezy through tonight because of the gradient between the pressure ridge along the Appalachians and the offshore low. The forecast area will be between the dry pressure ridge extending southward along the Appalachians and low pressure tracking northeastward near the coast. The low may have tropical characteristics. The pressure gradient between the mountain ridge and offshore low will result in breezy conditions. There is low confidence in the temperature forecast today because of the tight moisture gradient and questionable cloud cover, but we leaned toward the lower temperature guidance because of the northeast flow. Mixing tonight favors the higher low temperature guidance.
1057 AM EDT Mon Aug 28 2017 An upper level low will approach and slowly move across the region today into Tuesday bringing multiple rounds of showers and storms.
Model solutions show a nice relatively deep, easterly flow across the crest of the Appalachians which leads to drying in the lower levels keeping precip out of the Great Valley. Temperature forecast will be a little difficult with the easterly flow moving around the southern edge of the highest Appalachian terrain across Northern Georgia.
Upper level ridge remains over the western US. Upper ridge will shift into the western Dakotas by Wed night. Upper level trough over WI will move away from the area. Another upper level trough over the Northwest Territories will move into eastern Canada and amplify by Wed. System will bring a cold front to the forecast area Tue night into Wed.
841 AM PDT Mon Aug 28 2017 High pressure will bring a warming trend with widespread temperatures in the 90s Monday and Tuesday.
Clouds will keep daytime highs a little below normal, but humidity will be on the high side.
1116 AM EDT Mon Aug 28 2017 Update A slow moving low pressure system will track through Lower Michigan over the next couple of days. The widespread rain showers will continue to move to the east out of the CWFA this afternoon as the upper low slowly rotates east from the WI/IL border area, and the short wave responsible for this rain moves ENE out of the CWFA. Clouds will limit the heating, and there is little shear available with the light winds aloft in the vicinity of the low. The clouds over the next couple of days will likely hold back the high temperatures a few degrees.
607 AM CDT Mon Aug 28 2017 A cold front is currently moving south across south central Missouri. An upper level trough is currently diving should and will move across the region today. A few showers and maybe a rumble of thunder or two will be possible with the trough passage. Highs will warm into the upper 70s to lower 80s this afternoon as lows fall into the upper 50s to the lower 60s tonight. An upper level ridge will remain parked across the western U. As a result the below normal temperatures will occur as highs generally warm into the upper 70s to the lower 80s each day.
Short-term forecast of warmer than normal temps and chances for storms later today looks on track. Strong high pressure will remain in control through the week. Due to the location of the high, the airmass over much of our area will have varying degrees of a subsidence cap that will limit convective development.
Satellite imagery shows most of the area cloud free and under a ridge with dry northwest flow aloft. Templer Previous discussion - Synoptic Setup: Near term begins with a hot high pressure dome over the western half of the CONUS including northeast Montana. Today through Tuesday: With the ridge up high directly to the west conditions will be dry and clear to partly cloudy and hot. Upper level ridge will remain over Montana and most of the western US with hot and dry weather continuing.
730 AM EDT Mon Aug 28 2017 An upper low will bring chances for showers and isolated thunderstorms today into Tuesday, best chances this morning and again Tuesday afternoon. Temperatures will remain cool for this time of year, with highs in the low to mid 70s each day. An upper low over WI will drop south toward the IL/WI border today, then drifting into ne IL/far nw IN by later tonight. Scattered showers/isolated storms will likely fire across northern IL later this afternoon under the upper low. Chances for scattered rain showers will continue into Tuesday as the upper low spins east through the local area.
A mid/upper level ridge over the western US and Rockies will continue to push into the Dakotas today and tonight. The cool and moist high pressure system that brought fog to our area over the weekend has moved east into Minnesota and the western Great Lakes. The western ridge will bring a warm and dry airmass farther east into the Dakotas today and tonight. Light southerly winds should prevail with developing low pressure in the lee of the Rockies continuing.
1035 AM EDT Mon Aug 28 2017 Currently - An area of low pressure is moving northeastward near the Georgia coast while lower level ridging across Cuba and the Florida Straits lifts northward. Lower level flow has been more representative of the incoming ridge. Rain chances will be slight today due to drier air moving in through the mid levels and the increasing dominance of the ridge. Winds will remain light across Florida Keys waters due to a ridge axis running through the Florida Straits.
611 AM CDT Mon Aug 28 2017 Strong upper level ridging across The Wrn U. A strong upper level ridge will remain over the western US keeping high pressure situated over the central US.
Bottom line still expecting a wintry mix along and south of Interstate 44, with freezing rain still the primary threat, while sleet and snow will be more common the further north you go. High pressure then builds in Wednesday clearing the skies out and warming temperatures into the lower and middle 30s.
Wed/Wed night: Expect a warming trend as high pressure shifts east toward the MS river valley and southerly return flow develops over the High Plains.
A strong high pressure system will remain over the eastern Pacific and California tonight through late week resulting in more dry weather and above to much above normal to near record breaking daytime temperatures.
1058 PM CST Tue Feb 6 2018 Nebraska lies in northwest flow aloft as a strong ridge remains parked off the California coast and a low wobbles over Hudson Bay. Southerly winds and late day sunshine have done little in terms of warming today as highs ranged from the lower teens north central to near 30 in the panhandle. Cloud cover increases again and surface winds switch back to northerly as a weak cold front crosses the area. Kept chance of flurries across the northwest where lift is enhanced by the Black Hills/Pine Ridge and moisture content is a little better.
An upper level jet between 120 to 150 knots will form over the eastern conus ahead of the trough, with the forecast area residing in the right entrance region by noon, enhancing upper level lift. Strong thunderstorm wind gusts between 40 to 50 mph are possible with the strongest storms just ahead of the cold front, with isolated severe thunderstorm possible.
/issued 334 PM EST Tue Feb 6 2018/ High pressure will continue to dominate the weather across South Florida tonight and a cold front will remain stalled out just to the south of the region. High pressure will continue to remain in place for the middle to the end of the work week. As the ridge continues to expand to the north, it will help to lift the previously stalled frontal boundary back up to the north as well.
242 AM EST Wed Feb 7 2018 A cold front will approach from the west today bringing increasing chances of rain to the area. The cold front will move through the area this evening. High pressure will ridge into the area from the north briefly Thursday.
Surface ridging will continue to ooze into the region today. Although low stratus is long gone, the surface ridging will still keep temperatures relatively cool. This surface ridging will slide to the southeast on Thursday. This will allow surface lee troughing to dominate on Thursday complete with warming temperatures and dry breezy winds.
1136 PM CST Tue Feb 6 2018 Water vapor satellite this afternoon shows a couple of short wave troughs that will impact the area tonight. This will set up a bit more of a zonal flow which will have the potential to bring several fast moving short wave troughs across the region.
341 AM CST Wed Feb 7 2018 Wx map shows cold front moving through Southeast Texas into Western Louisiana, moving through Fort Polk now. The dense marine fog will end behind the cold frontal passage.
424 AM EST Wed Feb 7 2018 Low pressure producing wintry precipitation will move east today. High pressure and dry air will follow for Thursday.
For precipitation, introduced a slight chance for rain tonight as a strong warm front lifts through and interacts with a healthy dose of moisture spilling in from the north. With increasing clouds and warm advection, also raised overnight lows for tonight and afternoon highs across the lower Basin for Wednesday. 850mb temperatures expected to warm near 5C or warmer and with increasing southwest winds at the surface and potential for some sun breaks, thinking we will see another afternoon of mid to upper 50s for locations from Pomeroy to Ritzville and possibly into Moses Lake and Wenatchee where sunbreaks will be more prominent. /sb 06Z TAFs: Warm front lifting into the region will bring a band of light precipitation across SE WA and N ID.
Sat - Tue Longwave upper low remains northeast of Hudson Bay through the period. Longwave ridge off the west cost of North America weakens over AK.
Weather maps this morning still dominated by a broad shallow trough over the CONUS, with most of the Midwest under WSW flow. Illinois is caught between high pressure over the Northern Plains and a low moving across the Gulf Coast. Waves diving into the trough this morning bringing the light snow will also help to deepen the larger wave as well as shift the flow over Central IL to more of a northwesterly fetch. to drop the windchills into the single digits this morning and the low teens later in the day. Thursday night, pops creep back into the forecast as the first in a series of short waves dig into the broad trough.
1148 PM CST Tue Feb 6 2018 Not a lot of precipitation showing up on the radar tonight even with the cold front about halfway through the CWFA. while ceil- ings remain quite low, visibilities have improved with the slow influx of slightly drier/cooler air across inland counties.
Band of light snow sliding over southeast Wisconsin associated with a departing upper jet in the long wave trough over the Great Lakes region. Another larger area of light snow and flurries over eastern Minnesota and western Wisconsin was associated with a mid level short wave trough.
/Issued 946 PM CST Tue Feb 6 2018/ Areas of freezing drizzle and light freezing rain continue across parts of eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas, generally to the southeast of Interstate 44.
1025 PM MST Tue Feb 6 2018 The upper level trough that moved through last night and this morning has exited the region. Now that the trough has shifted eastward, we will now experience more showery-type precipitation. The NAMNEST has been the model of choice today and it's showing that by this evening most showers will have ended except for the highest peaks of the Park Range where some light snow may continue. For tomorrow, a return to what we've seen before the trough moved through. High pressure remains to our west as we see northwesterly flow. The high pressure to our west also stays fairly stationary so the warm temperatures and variable cloudiness also continues.
Some much warmer days are coming to close out this week, with lots of sunshine.
220 AM CST Wed Feb 7 2018 A ridge of high pressure is progged to settle south across the area today bringing light winds but keeping a cool airmass entrenched across the area. Locations across central KS that received some light snow may struggle to reach freezing while those near the OK state line in south central KS see highs approaching 40. As high pressure continues to translate eastward away from the region on Thursday, breezy southwesterly winds will advect warmer air into the area with highs expected to top out in the 50s.
18Z surface data has high pressure over the western Great Lakes and upper Mississippi Valley. Highs are forecast from the mid 30s far south to the lower 20s far north.
The storm system tracking over the region today has been challenging in that is has been struggling to overcome dry air in the low- levels, thus limiting the expected snowfall totals. If these trends continue it will be difficult to get any freezing rain/drizzle development early this evening across east central KS, however the potential cannot be entirely ruled out. The dry air advection will allow skies to quickly clear overnight behind this system, and have trended cooler with temperatures.
Winds will spread into the high valleys and high plains on Thursday, but do not anticipate gusts over 50 MPH at this time.
338 AM CST Wed Feb 7 2018 An upper trough will move across the Panhandles today and should exit the forecast area by later today.
An upper ridge will remain just of the West Coast, while an upper trough center extends from the Great Lakes down through the lower Mississippi Valley. Mild day Thursday ahead of the next Arctic cold front which will settle south through the area Thursday night. Much colder across northern Nebraska where the Arctic cold front will be located, with highs only in the mid 20s expected.
The primary precip type is still expected to be freezing rain in areas south of a kmdh to kevv line. This higher qpf overlaps the sub-freezing air in parts of se Missouri. The freezing line will be critical in this event. It appears the freezing line will remain fairly close to the Ohio River and the Missouri Bootheel early tonight. A slow southeast movement of the freezing line is expected late tonight, which should result in a change to freezing rain in much of western KY. The sunshine should boost temps to around or just above freezing in the afternoon, and winds will diminish gradually after noon. High pressure to our east will keep our region dry for the end of the work week. South winds around the high will bring moisture north, along with warmer conditions.
Enough atmospheric moisture is pooling into the region, and is slowly saturating the lower-levels throughout the course of the day, allowing for some flurries and light snow to fall from the mid-level clouds currently strewn overhead. Otherwise, the rest of the snow amounts in the forecast look on track, with the highest totals likely falling along a general track stretching from STJ to IRK.
318 AM CST Wed Feb 7 2018 Latest sfc analysis places the cold front across north central middle TN with the boundary extending southwest into far northern MS. The all important sfc freezing line is located just south of the OH river. Rainfall currently covers much of the mid state with temperatures ranging from the mid 30s far northwest to the lower 50s Plateau. Lows generally in the lower 20s are expected.
Patchy late night fog east of I-25 as the lower levels near saturation. Warmer temperatures based on rising heights and thicknesses.
High pressure northeast of the waters will keep a southeasterly wind flow in place through Wednesday, with an afternoon sea breeze turning winds onshore at the coast. A cold front will then approach the area on Thursday, with winds becoming northeast and then east through the end of the week.
Arctic high pressure begins to sag southward while a series of weak impulses swing across the southern Rockies, generating an area of low pressure centered over eastern Colorado.
238 AM CST Wed Feb 7 2018 A cold front has just passed through Monroe County, MS. The freezing line currently stretches from near Harrisburg, Arkansas northeastward to Union City, TN. North and west of this line, freezing rain or freezing drizzle is occurring while south and east of this line remains rain. Expect temperatures to drop into the lower to mid 40s over the course of the day. With clear skies and light winds, expect temperatures to plummet into the lower to mid 20s for lows. Temperatures will begin to rebound on Thursday as the high shifts east.
Have warmer lows than last night but went slightly colder than the previous official forecast.
A cold front will push southeastward and move into our CWA this afternoon and evening.
A cold front will move across East Tennessee this afternoon causing winds to shift from southwest to northwest and become breezy (for these parts). Light to moderate rainfall will persist until late afternoon when drier and cooler air moves in behind the frontal boundary.
The local GFS MOS warms DDC to the mid 30s by 18Z, and to the low 40s at Elkhart. Highs on average should be around 20 degrees warmer Thursday afternoon, and into the low to mid 60s in the west.
314 AM CST Wed Feb 7 2018 Light snow continued to fall over much of the Northland this morning as a trough passes through the region. High pressure will cause dry conditions to continue into Thursday with partly to mostly sunny skies.
The cold front was located south of a Cotulla to Victoria line at 05Z with the stronger push of colder air lagging a little behind. The cold front is expected to push south toward the coast by 10Z. Cold front beginning to push southward through south-central Texas with modest region of 3 hourly pressure rises occurring over central Texas. Will see fog develop late this evening in advance of the cold front, with visibilities improving with the frontal passage. Convection should be on the increase overnight as the short wave trough moves into the northern Brush Country. Stronger short wave trough will be diving southeast through southwest Texas toward the Hill Country on Wednesday. Warm moist air continues to move across the cooler shelf waters with dense fog occurring over the bays and near shore waters.
High pressure will begin to retreat to the east on Thursday and southerly winds will be seen by the afternoon for most locations. Temperatures will begin to moderate with highs on Thursday expected to be 10 degrees warmer than Wednesday, overnight lows will show similar moderating as well.
1107 PM EST Tue Feb 6 2018 High pressure will move across the area tonight. Low pressure will approach later Wednesday then track through the Gulf of Maine Wednesday night. High pressure will build south of the region on Thursday. A surface trof and upper level disturbance will exit across the maritimes this evening. High pressure will cross the region overnight through early Wednesday. Low pressure will then track toward southern New England later Wednesday. Developing low pressure will move across Southern New England early Wednesday evening then continue to move to the northeast through the Gulf of Maine during the remainder of the evening. Expect snow to transition to snow showers Thursday Morning as the low pressure centers continues to move northeast into the maritimes.