Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Models soundings indicate deeper moisture through the atmosphere, which should limit the potential for much freezing drizzle. Energy still moves through rather quickly, so accumulations are expected to be less than an inch, with the highest totals across northeast and east- central Wisconsin. A brief period of freezing drizzle is still possible as the precipitation comes to an end and some of the mid- level moisture dries out. While CAA is in place Monday, high temperatures are expected to be a few degrees warmer than today due to the warmer start. Monday Night Through Sunday Low amplitude upper level flow at the start of this forecast period becomes more amplified by the end of the period, with a return to the pattern of a trough in the eastern CONUS and sharp ridge in western NOAM by 00Z Monday.
with 2pm readings ranging from the lower 30s along/north of I-74 to around 40 degrees across the far south near Flora and Lawrenceville. Despite temperatures well above freezing in some spots, dewpoints hovering in the teens and lower 20s suggest ample evaporational cooling as the heavier precip begins. Think as the rain arrives from the southwest, temps will drop back to near or slightly below freezing across all but the far SE KILX CWA early this evening. Have gone with a rain/freezing rain mix tonight as temps flirt with freezing, but have removed mention of snow. After that, skies will clear across the western half of the CWA by afternoon as high temperatures climb above freezing into the upper 30s to around 40 degrees. With high pressure overhead, skies will clear and winds will become nearly calm across the board Monday night.
303 PM CST Sun Jan 7 2018 Rain was slow to fill in this afternoon as light rain succumbed to drier air in the low levels much of the morning hours. Moisture will be slow to return midweek as current trough will dive down into the Gulf of Mexico where it will gradually weaken with time. This will help shunt moisture east into the lower Missouri and Ohio River Valleys. This midweek trough and associated cold front will usher in the next round of cold air to round out the week.
301 PM CST Sun Jan 7 2018 Water vapor imagery shows an upper level low over west-central MB this afternoon. Still believe patchy freezing drizzle is possible from Hallock to Baudette/Bemidji this afternoon.
Temps will be warmer tonight with lows in the mid 30s to lower 40s.
It should feel a bit warmer today with highs 5-10 degrees warner than yesterday in the mid teens to low 20s. A weakening cold front is expected to move through the region Monday bringing a generally light precipitation event, with snow over the north and central areas, and perhaps a wintry mix over the south in the slightly milder airmass. Model soundings still showing a tricky forecast for low level temp structure over the southern areas, so for now the forecast of snow/sleet or freezing rain looks reasonable. The potential for freezing rain/sleet is being addressed in the HWO at this time, but may require an advisory for Monday and Monday night as the confidence grows.
UPDATE Issued at 1018 AM CST Sun Jan 7 2018 The warm front currently runs north-south in the vicinity of the Red River. However, based on the METRo road temp model, reduced area of freezing drizzle. Upper level jet will nose into the area from the northwest or on the south periphery of the upper trough today.
1205 PM EST Sun Jan 7 2018 As high pressure moves east tonight and Monday, expect warming temperatures. A trough moving by on Monday will produce some light snow, mainly for northern areas.
1123 AM CST Sun Jan 7 2018 Warmer air continues to progress across the area. Focused on trending the POPs with the radars as the returns look a little better as the pre-frontal trough moves through. A prefrontal trough moving through northwest North Dakota this morning has kicked up some snow showers and associated gusty northwest winds through the north central and northwest this morning. Broad westerly downsloping wind will push the remnants of the arctic air out this morning and weak cold advection behind the prefrontal trough will aid in mixing and keep temperatures mild. Highs should warm well into the 30s to around 40 southwest to the low to mid 30s elsewhere.
Warm front will continue moving east across the rest of the CWA through the morning hours.
The precip has mainly been in the form of light freezing rain and sleet, although a few reports of light snow were received across the northern KILX CWA earlier this morning. With surface temperatures currently in the middle to upper 20s and ground/road temps well below freezing, freezing rain and icing will be a concern this afternoon. Further south where little or no snow cover exists, temperatures will rise above freezing later this afternoon into the evening. Strong isentropic lift will eventually get some light sleet or freezing rain going near the Mississippi River toward mid morning, then rapidly overspread western Illinois through midday. Initial warm wedge of 2-3C around 850 mb across the Illinois River valley remains supportive of some sleet/freezing rain initially, trending more toward light snow this evening before ending as some light freezing rain/drizzle.
/issued 416 AM CST Sun Jan 7 2018/ SHORT TERM (Now through Monday): Midlevel trough is sweeping across the four corners region, and is already spreading high cirrus into south Texas. Sea fog won't fully begin until after winds decrease, with best chances after midnight along the immediate coast, along with moisture pooling ahead of the approaching cold front. High temperatures will be 5 to 7 degrees cooler than Sunday, with a considerably drier airmass as well.
Places in northwest and even parts of north central Arkansas have seen some light precipitation so far today, with some sleet and freezing rain briefly noted. Said upper trough is currently located over the TX/NM border, and should be located from southwest Missouri down through the Arklatex region by midnight tonight. Rainfall will spread eastward in advance of the upper trough, so expect widespread precipitation across the CWA by roughly the 7pm-10pm timeframe. Upper level ridging will build in across the plains in the wake of this system, and will generate dry conditions across Arkansas to round out the short term period.
1018 AM CST Sun Jan 7 2018 We are starting to see some of the radar echoes aloft make it to the ground in the form of rain across parts of far northeast Oklahoma as the low level airmass continues to slowly saturate.
319 PM CST Sun Jan 7 2018 At 3 PM CST, light rain, freezing rain and some sleet and snow in SE sections is moving slowly east. Area temperatures are in the upper 20s north to the lower to middle 30s south. Precipitation should move east of the region by mid to late evening with cooler temperatures moving in later tonight with clearing skies.
An upper level ridge will be over the region but with some moisture attempting to move over the top. This will lead to a low chance of precipitation across the northern portion of the forecast area today before the moisture band begins to lift further to the north as the ridge amplifies.
A bit cooler across much of the CWA today behind a cool front that passed across earlier. Chilly tonight then warmer Monday as upper ridging builds over the region.
The road temperatures also seem to be responding toward or above freezing as well, so icing is looking harder and harder to get. Main forecast issue in short term lies with the possibility of a light wintry mix of rain/freezing rain later today into tonight, mainly over portions of southeast MO/srn IL/sw IN and the northern Pennyrile of western KY. Brisk southerly flow today should help temps rise above freezing most locations, esp across our southern counties. Even if readings remain slightly above freezing, ground temps may lag warming due to the extended deep freeze we have experienced. The rain should end from northwest to southeast as the day progresses and the trof moves off to the east.
Winds will shift to the southwest and then eventually northwest by early evening as a cold front moves across the area. A weak cold front will move south across West Central Texas tonight, and the winds will become west to northwest with speeds of around 10 knots. /issued 319 AM CST Sun Jan 7 2018/ (Today and Tonight) Another cold front will move across West Central Texas today and bring winds from the north, along with possible showers. For tonight, an upper trough associated with this cold front, will move farther east taking the potential for showers with it.
250 PM MST Sun Jan 7 2018 A weak upper level ridge of high pressure will reside over the region through Monday.
Temperature trends were adjusted along with increasing wind speeds behind the cold front over northwestern Oklahoma.
1056 AM MST Sun Jan 7 2018 Water vapor shows short wave moving through western SD early this morning, with large upstream ridge over the Pac NW and Northern Rockies. At the surface, associated trof is pushing east thorugh the central Dakotas. Upper ridge will then dominate early this week with mild and dry conditions expected.
Light drizzle will be possible across south central Kansas with freezing drizzle across central and west central Kansas in the morning. Winds will start out from the southeast this morning, shifting to the north as a trough of low pressure slides across western Kansas. Breezy conditions are expected behind this trough with gusts around 30 mph possible at times. Mostly clear skies are then expected overnight as high pressure builds into the area. As for temperatures, highs today are progged to range from the Lower 40s along the KS/CO border to mid 40s across central Kansas. Lows tonight are expected to dip into the low to mid 20s. Warmer temperatures are expected for the first half of the week as upper level ridging occurs above the Rockies with southwest down slope flow at the surface.
Sub-freezing low lvl airmass was in place acrs much of AR early this mrng. Meanwhile, much warmer air was advecting Nwd into the Srn/Cntrl Plains to the W of the FA.
Surface wise, a massive high pressure system (1038 mb) is centered along the Virginia and Carolina coast with an extensive ridge reaching down the entire Sunshine State. A vigorous mid and upper level short wave trough in the extreme west central portion of Texas will plow east southeastward and into Louisiana on Monday, before pushing into the Gulf of Mexico Monday night.
327 PM CST Sun Jan 7 2018 A cold front will continue its advance to the southeast this evening, leaving our forecast area late this evening.
1041 PM EST Mon Nov 27 2017 Dry high pressure will build over the area into the middle of the week.
The latest observations show that the cold front has moved through most of northeastern WY and northwestern SD, on track to move across the CWA by 03Z this evening. Aloft, water vapor images show an elongated trough from east-central Saskatchewan to southern Nevada. As the trough moves across the CWA tonight the best upward motion and moisture will skirt to our south/southwest.
Expect these winds to slowly decrease through the afternoon hours with the high wind warning now extended until 4 pm as gradients slowly relax through early evening. With enough low and mid level moisture and some energy from the passing trough, expect scattered showers mainly west of a Douglas to Laramie line. Another surface lee trough forms as southwest flow aloft strengthens.
A cold front continues move through the area tonight bringing a few showers along the Arizona Utah border.
528 PM CST Mon Nov 27 2017 Upper level low pressure trough out west was bringing thick high level clouds to the region this afternoon which has kept temperatures down along with a shallow mixing layer. At the surface, a trough/cold front across the cwa this afternoon will be moving east tonight with winds becoming northwest bringing in cooler air for Tuesday. As the upper level low pressure trough passes by later tonight/early Tuesday, the mid and high level clouds will also move east.
High pressure on the surface and aloft continue to prevail. Southerly flow to also bring an increase in moisture along with a gradual warming trend with low temperatures in the upper 30s to mid 40s tonight increasing to the low to mid 50s overnight Tuesday.
729 PM EST Mon Nov 27 2017 Dry high pressure will build over the area into the middle of the week.
720 PM EST Mon Nov 27 2017 High pressure will bring mainly fair weather for much of the week. As the high moves east, a southwest flow will develop along with moderating temperatures.
Temperatures are expected to be warmer than the previous nights as the lower atmosphere will fail to decouple in most locations. Another warm day is in store for the region on Tuesday ahead of a slow moving cold front. Have forecast highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s ahead of the front, with temperatures cooler across the northern CWA where the front will encroach and clouds will increase by afternoon.
620 PM EST Mon Nov 27 2017 High pressure over the area tonight will move offshore Tuesday.
Main concern will be the wind shift tonight as a cold front passes through the region and then the windy conditions behind the front tomorrow.
The highest gusts (near 30 knots) will be at KABI. Some decrease in wind speeds is anticipated by late afternoon and early evening, just ahead of an approaching cold front. The GFS and NAM differ on how widespread the low cloud field will be, and on how low will be the ceilings. A cold front will enter the Big Country late Tuesday afternoon. Aloft, An upper level ridge currently over Texas will be replaced by a short wave trough moving by to our north by 29/00Z. Lows tonight will be in the lower to mid 50s and highs Tuesday will mainly be in the mid 70s.
409 PM MST Mon Nov 27 2017 The latest observations show that the cold front has moved through most of northeastern WY and northwestern SD, on track to move across the CWA by 03Z this evening. Aloft, water vapor images show an elongated trough from east-central Saskatchewan to southern Nevada. As the trough moves across the CWA tonight the best upward motion and moisture will skirt to our south/southwest.
/22/ Through Tomorrow: Dry weather continues today through tonight under the influence of high pressure across the region. Most locations will warm into the low 70's under mostly clear skies.
850 PM EST Mon Nov 27 2017 High pressure will bring mainly fair weather for much of the week. As the high moves east, a southwest flow will develop along with moderating temperatures.
613 PM CST Mon Nov 27 2017 Southerly winds will continue into and through this evening as a cold front begins to take shape and move east across the plains late tonight. A cold front will approach the Ozarks and briefly, check up, along the I-44 corridor as a nearly stacked surface and upper low develops over the central plains. The front will then moves slowly through the area as the upper low moves east.
Generally went cooler by a couple of degrees, into the low/mid 30s - enough for a frosty windshield in many locations to greet those who start their day before the sun warms things up.
524 PM CST Mon Nov 27 2017 00Z TAFS High pressure remains firmly in control across the area this evening resulting in clear skies and very light winds. Southerly winds return by mid morning Tuesday as the high departs to our east which will increase atmospheric moisture and result in a developing low level ceiling around 025 that will continue through Tuesday night. Temperatures will cool rapidly after sunset, but on average should be about five degrees warmer tonight than last night.
On Tuesday a slow increase in low level moisture within the northeast to easterly wind flow around the high to the northeast may support a few (Pops 20 percent) low topped showers across the south central interior and southern counties during the afternoon along with a few more clouds, otherwise pleasant dry weather will continue. Upper ridging extends from the eastern Caribbean northward between Bermuda and the mid-Atlantic coast and further northward to New England. A series of upper troughs will moves through the eastern half of the U.
Not a whole lot happening at the surface in this period despite a warm front moving through. The parent low of the warm front is located way up in Manitoba and it will circle a cold front across the area on Tuesday, but again due to the distance from the low and a dry air intrusion, not expecting much in terms of precip here except a few -shsn near the Canadian Border. Temps remain fairly isothermal despite the normal diurnal tendency until the cold front passes Tuesday afternoon. Several troughs will move through the region, but deep Pacific or Gulf moisture return is limited.
A cold front will move through the forecast area mid-morning into the early afternoon Tuesday.
609 PM EST Mon Nov 27 2017 High pressure in control through mid week.
509 PM EST Mon Nov 27 2017 High pressure will bring mainly fair weather for much of the week. As the high moves east, a southwest flow will develop along with moderating temperatures.
Limited cloud cover present this evening under high pressure. The next approaching trough still looks to begin pushing moisture into eastern Oregon late Tuesday afternoon.
/issued 234 PM EST Mon Nov 27 2017/ The short term models are in very good agreement handling the upper level low that develops near the Georgia/Florida state line overnight. The low has little moisture to work with so no rain is expected, although FEW-SCT clouds will develop over south Georgia and spread northward by tomorrow afternoon. High pressure at the surface will keep winds relatively light overnight before becoming 5- 10 mph out of the southeast by late morning tomorrow.
Expansive high cloud cover rounding the top of the central conus ridge has done a number on the high temperature forecast today.
VFR conditions expected through the forecast, with dry high pressure in control. Complex high based trof axis extends from the southeast US to off the Louisiana coast. At the surface, high pressure over the Appalachians tonight, moves off into the west Atlantic thru the day Tuesday.
633 PM EST Mon Nov 27 2017 South winds ahead of a cold front will continue to bring warmer air into the region through Tuesday. Low temperatures tonight will only drop into the lower to middle 40s, while highs on Tuesday afternoon will reach the mid 50s north to lower 60s south. A low chance of rain showers will also accompany the cold front as it passes Tuesday afternoon and evening. Lows will generally drop into the low to mid 40s with highs into the upper 50s to near 60 tomorrow. This feature will force a trailing cold front into nw IN/lower MI Tuesday evening and points southeast later Tuesday night.
A cold front will enter northwest Oklahoma toward 12Z tomorrow morning, which will bring a cooler air mass across northwest and west- central Oklahoma for tomorrow (along with breezy northerly winds).
This is in response to a rapid increase of the low level jet and resultant mixing. The strong winds and increasing clouds are in response to an approaching trough/cold front. Strong southerly winds ahead of an approaching trough of low pressure will result in small craft advisory conditions through about mid afternoon on Tuesday. A passing trough and front will likely bring a period of MVFR CIGS to southern Wisconsin between 13-19z Tuesday.
852 PM MST Mon Nov 27 2017 Temperatures have been trending a little cooler than the forecast, so have updated with the latest guidance.
Tuesday highs will just trend a couple degrees warmer than today, which pushes us up in line with the warmer GFS MOS.
931 PM EST Mon Nov 27 2017 High pressure is centered over West Virginia with light southerly flow across the lower Ohio Valley. Tuesday highs will just trend a couple degrees warmer than today, which pushes us up in line with the warmer GFS MOS.
Cold front extending from Manitoba south into northeast ND, and then back southwest through south central ND and into western South Dakota. Temperatures were under performing in light winds ahead of the cold front, but actually increase with the mixing associated with the front. Much cooler Tuesday, but actually still above normal with temperatures ranging from the mid 30s around the Turtle Mountains to the mid 40s southwest and south central, under mostly sunny skies.
High pressure is building into the region in the wake of this morning's trough.
606 PM CST Mon Nov 27 2017 H5 analysis from this morning had a broad ridge of high pressure across the most of the lower 48 with ridging extending north into south central Canada. Upstream of this ridge a trough of low pressure extended from western Alberta south into southern California, where a closed low was present near San Francisco. For tonight, increasing high clouds are anticipated and with enhanced mixing from a cold front, overnight lows will be relatively mild. Coolest readings will be across northwest Nebraska where high pressure will begin to settle in. Modest cold air advection behind the front will allow for noticeably cooler high temperatures on Tuesday. Readings will range from the upper 40s across northwest Nebraska to the lower 50s across our far east.
A large ridge covers much of the Eastern United States this evening and dry air is abundant.
southerly winds become gusty again ahead of a low pressure system and associated cold front forecast to move into the CWA just outside of this TAF period.
A large-scale trough extends from the Carolina coasts to the western Gulf of Mexico. Numerous patches of light rain abound across the service area, with some heavier showers approaching the Florida Reef Tract off the lower and middle Florida Keys at the moment.
For tonight, a warm front is expected to push north across the area. Temperatures will slowly drop late tonight across central and north-central Wisconsin with the passage of the cold front. Temperatures across the Fox Valley and lakeshore region may be around 50, if not in the lower 50s. Clouds will be on the decrease during the afternoon as high pressure builds into the region.
Fog potential looks better for Tue night due to weakening wind field ahead of a weak cold front. Light winds are progged to gradually shift to the north across S TX by 12Z Wed, but the lower dewpoints/cooler airmass will be lagging behind. During the day Tue, temps will be a tad warmer than today, otherwise partly cloudy with no precip expected.
Southerly flow to also bring an increase in moisture along with a gradual warming trend with low temperatures in the upper 30s to mid 40s tonight increasing to the low to mid 50s overnight Tuesday.
High pressure is expected across the area through early this week.
845 PM EST Mon Nov 27 2017 High pressure will crest over the region tonight then shift east on Tuesday.
A weak coastal trough interacting with a mid/upper low over the area has produced isolated showers well offshore the extreme Ne Fl and lower Se Ga coast this eve. These showers have been drifting northwest and may come ashore the coast early Tue am as the coastal trough continues moving northwest.
Cold front should hit KHOB 15-16Z, and KPEQ by 19Z. /issued 147 PM CST Mon Nov 27 2017/ Upper ridge centered over Mexico this morning stretches northward across the country to Canada. However the next upper trough has moved ashore the west coast. This trough will move quickly east reaching the Southern Rockies by Tuesday morning and crossing the Panhandle during the day.
Once the inversions broke, the stronger winds aloft mixed to the surface and also brought much warmer air to the surface. None of this occurred in the Grand Valley thanks to some mid level clouds that kept the inversion in place so no gusty winds and no mixing of warmer temperatures to the surface. Models in fairly good agreement that the front and trough will push through and close off after midnight. High temperatures will drop several degrees Tuesday thanks to northerly flow but by Tuesday evening, winds will become southerly for another push of warmer air.