Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
HAVE REMOVED THUNDER BUT WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVERNIGHT SOUTH OF ORLANDO AHEAD OF A WEAK FRONTAL TROUGH. MID-LEVEL TROUGHING ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WITH TAIL-END APPENDAGE DRAGGING ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA DURING THE DAY.
815 PM EDT FRI APR 22 2016 A TROUGH MOVED EAST INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. THE PRECIPITATION ACCOMPANYING THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MIDNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. EXPECTING LOW CLOUDS LATER TONIGHT AND INTO SAT AM WITH THE APPROACH OF THE COLD FRONT AND HAVE IFR CIGS AT ALL TAF SITES BEGINNING 09Z-10Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY 15Z SAT.
UPPER TROUGH AXIS CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH WITH A SURFACE FRONT GETTING PUSHED THROUGH THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL SHIFT WELL EAST OF THE AREA BY SATURDAY MORNING.
749 PM EDT FRI APR 22 2016 ANY SHOWERS WILL COME TO END BY MIDNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN THIS WEEKEND, SETTING US UP FOR SUNNY BUT SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER.
629 PM CDT FRI APR 22 2016 FOR 00Z TAFS /ISSUED 330 PM CDT FRI APR 22 2016/ WELL ADVERTISED COLD FRONT IS BEGINNING TO MAKE SOME GOOD PROGRESS ACROSS THE MID TN VALLEY THIS FRI AFTERNOON. CLEARING SKIES AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS SHOULD THEN BE IN PLACE BY THE ONSET OF THE MORNING HRS SAT. WITH LOWS FALLING MORE INTO THE LOWER/MID 50S RANGE FOR MOST LOCATIONS. AS A LARGE SWATH OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EWD INTO MUCH OF THE ERN CONUS. AS ONE UPPER RIDGE PATTERN OVER THE SE REGION IS SLOWLY REINFORCED BY ANOTHER FROM THE W.
1146 PM EDT FRI APR 22 2016 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.
618 PM CDT FRI APR 22 2016 Isolated showers across southwest Indiana and northwest Kentucky will come to an end as we lose our heating late this afternoon and the upper low pushes off farther to our east.
AS OF 02Z THE COLD FRONT IS NOW ACROSS NORTHERN GA, BRINGING AN END TO ALL LINGERING PRECIP ACTIVITY FOR THE TN VALLEY. HOWEVER, TO SAY THIS WAS A TRUE COLD FRONT IS A BIT OF STRETCH AS WE HAVEN'T SEEN ANY APPRECIABLE CHANGE IN TEMPS OR DEWPOINTS BEHIND THE FRONT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN OVER THE FORECAST AREA. /ISSUED 341 PM CDT FRI APR 22 2016/ LATEST WV IMAGERY AND UA ANALYSIS SHOWS DRIER AIR CONTINUING TO SPREAD OVER THE REGION BEHIND AN UPR TROF AXIS THAT EXTENDS FM AN UPR LOW CROSSING THE OHIO VALLEY. UPSTREAM RIDGING WAS NOTED OVER THE SRN ROCKIES. A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED EAST OF THE AREA WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING IN BEHIND IT. EXPECT AFTN HIGHS REACHING THE LOWER 80S.
1040 PM CDT FRI APR 22 2016 SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS WILL OCCUR TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. STRENGTHENING UPPER TROUGH/LOW MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT FOR ISOLATED-WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL KANSAS.
1025 PM EDT FRI APR 22 2016 CURRENTLY - HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL NORTH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN BAHAMAS CONTINUES TO SLIDE EASTWARD TONIGHT. WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 70S. EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO RELAX OVERNIGHT AS A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM NORTH OF THE ATLANTIC MOVES FURTHER OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC.
/ISSUED 337 PM CDT FRI APR 22 2016/ UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE STATE THROUGH SATURDAY AND RESULT IN DRY AND SEASONAL WEATHER. THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST SATURDAY NIGHT WHILE A UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
DEEP UPPER LOW CUTTING THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN THIS EVENING PER SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE FIRST OF A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE DISTURBANCES WILL BRING SHOWERS AND LOWERING SNOW LEVELS TO SOUTHEAST IDAHO TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. AS THE LOW PASSES ON SATURDAY.
LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS AND CURRENT DEWPOINTS DO SUPPORT MINS IN THE 30S EAST TO THE LOWER 40S WEST. COOL AIR DRAINAGE TYPICAL IN WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN STILL SUGGEST LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S AND WILL KEEP THE FROST ADVISORY FOR OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST AND WITH FAIR SKIES AND A LATE APRIL SUNSHINE COMBINED WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS. THE HIGHS SHOULD REBOUND INTO THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES FAR WEST SECTIONS.
922 PM EDT FRI APR 22 2016 LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS EVENING.
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING EAST OF THE AREA AT MID AFTN AS SOUTHERLY SFC FLOW IS OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. FARTHER NORTH IN THE COOLER AIRMASS MORE SHOWERY.
TWEAKED THE HOURLY VALUES BUT LEFT THE LOWS. RUC AND HI RES SUGGEST VALUES MAY BE A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER.
747 PM EDT FRI APR 22 2016 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.
/ISSUED 450 PM EDT FRI APR 22 2016/ REGIONAL OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATING A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IN THE NORTHEASTERN GULF AND A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN CONUS. RECENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL TO EASTERN GULF. THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY ENTERING THE EASTERN CONUS IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING EAST TONIGHT THEN START TO MOVE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC SEA BOARD TONIGHT. THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA ON SATURDAY WHILE BECOMING DISORGANIZED AND DIFFUSE WHILE THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC WATERS EAST OF FLORIDA.
/ISSUED 321 PM CDT FRI APR 22 2016/ THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS SHOWN WELL ON WV IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE AXIS OF THE RIDGE POSITIONED JUST EAST OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE ITS EASTWARD PROGRESSION OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NOW IN NORTHERN CA ALSO MAKES ITS WAY EASTWARD. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE CONTAINED WITHIN THE RIDGE IS ALLOWING FOR MOUNTAIN TOP CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE SACRAMENTO AND SANGRE DE CRISTO RANGES. A LEE TROF WILL DEEPEN TOMORROW MORNING WHICH WILL INCREASE WINDS TO THE 15-20 MPH RANGE MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FA. OUR WESTERN ZONES SHOULD SEE CONTINUED SCATTERED CLOUD COVER BEING PRODUCED AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES CLOSER TO THE REGION.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD DOWN OVER THE GULF AND BRING SOME DRIER AIR OVER THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND.
744 PM EDT FRI APR 22 2016 SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES FOR THE WEEKEND.
HIGH PRESSURE HAS BROUGHT MUCH DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION WITH AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE 20S ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA. TIMING OF ADVANCING CLOUD COVER WILL PLAY A SIGNIFICANT ROLE IN HOW LOW TEMPS WILL FALL AS DEW POINTS ARE IN THE LOW TEENS TO SINGLE DIGITS. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION.
THE FIRST OF SEVERAL AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT ARIZONA WITH WINDY CONDITIONS SATURDAY. AND COOLER TEMPERATURES ARRIVING THIS WEEKEND.
959 PM CDT FRI APR 22 2016 UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDED FROM THE WESTERN DAKOTAS TO SOUTHERN SASK. UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING EAST OF THE AREA AT MID AFTN AS SOUTHERLY SFC FLOW IS OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. FARTHER NORTH IN THE COOLER AIRMASS MORE SHOWERY.
659 PM CDT FRI APR 22 2016 ALOFT: A RIDGE WAS OVERHEAD THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF CLOSED LOW APPROACHING THE NRN CA/OR COAST. THE MODELS AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED ON THE LOW BEING OVER WRN WY BY 00Z/SUN. SURFACE: LOW PRES AND A PAC COLD FRONT WERE MIGRATING THRU THE WRN USA. A WARM FRONT EXTENDED SE FROM MT INTO WRN NEB/KS. PRES WILL CONT TO FALL WITHIN THE LEE TROF AS THE INTERSECTING FRONTS OCCLUDE AROUND LOW PRES NEAR THE WY/MT BORDER. WINDY AND WARMER AND S WINDS GUST 30-40 MPH.
1156 PM CDT FRI APR 22 2016 FOR 06Z TAFS /ISSUED 928 PM CDT FRI APR 22 2016/ AS OF 02Z THE COLD FRONT IS NOW ACROSS NORTHERN GA, BRINGING AN END TO ALL LINGERING PRECIP ACTIVITY FOR THE TN VALLEY. HOWEVER, TO SAY THIS WAS A TRUE COLD FRONT IS A BIT OF STRETCH AS WE HAVEN'T SEEN ANY APPRECIABLE CHANGE IN TEMPS OR DEWPOINTS BEHIND THE FRONT.
A STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE AREA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY WITH A COLD FRONT PASSAGE. BRINGING SHOWERS AND MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES. COLD FRONT ACCELERATING INTO NORTHWEST UTAH THIS EVENING DUE TO PRESSURE RISES OVER NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST NEVADA FROM RAIN EVAPORATING AND COOLING THE AIR. THIS THERMAL CONTRAST IS CAUSING A GOOD PRESSURE GRADIENT AND THUS PUSHING THE COLD FRONT INTO UTAH. AFTER THE COLD FRONT MOVES TOWARDS THE WASATCH FRONT SATURDAY MORNING THE SURFACE GRADIENT AND STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS ALOFT SHOULD COMBINE TO CREATE SOME STRONG DOWNSLOPING WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST DESERT. THE SLC TERMINAL WILL SEE SOUTHERLY WINDS WHICH WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES UNTIL THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT SHIFTS WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST BETWEEN 15Z AND 17Z.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER MONTANA WILL SLOWLY INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES INTO THE CWA ALONG WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS.
WINDY AND COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND WITH THE BULK OF THE WIND ON SATURDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN NEVADA WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SOUTHWEST BREEZES OVER OUR AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT.
1135 PM CDT FRI APR 22 2016 Isolated showers across southwest Indiana and northwest Kentucky will come to an end as we lose our heating late this afternoon and the upper low pushes off farther to our east.
1043 PM EDT FRI APR 22 2016 ANY SHOWERS WILL COME TO END BY MIDNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN THIS WEEKEND, SETTING US UP FOR SUNNY BUT SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER.
WITH TROUGH AXIS WELL EAST OF THE AREA ALL OF MIDDLE TN IS UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW. THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MIX OUT BY MID MORNING TOMORROW. UPPER TROUGH AXIS DOWN ALONG SMOKEY MOUNTAINS AT 04Z WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT.
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 56 76 51 82 / 10 0 0 0 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 54 73 50 81 / 20 0 0 0 OAK RIDGE, TN 54 73 49 80 / 20 0 0 0 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 51 69 43 79 / 50 10 0 0.
BROAD UPPER LOW TRACKING THROUGH THE WESTERN U. PRESSURE CHANGE MAPS SHOWING THE COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH TWIN FALLS AND JEROME.
WITH TROUGH AXIS WELL EAST OF THE AREA ALL OF MIDDLE TN IS UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW. THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MIX OUT BY MID MORNING TOMORROW. UPPER TROUGH AXIS DOWN THROUGH EASTERN TENNESSEE THIS EVENING WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS CONFINED MOSTLY TO FAR EASTERN TENNESSEE HOWEVER THERE HAS BEEN A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WORKING DOWN THROUGH CENTRAL KENTUCKY DURING THE AFTERNOON THAT COULD WORK DOWN INTO NORTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE OVER THE NEXT HOUR BUT SHOULD BEGIN TO DISSIPATE SHORTLY NOW THAT THE SUN IS GOING DOWN.
730 PM MST FRI APR 22 2016 TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON A DOWNHILL TREND THIS WEEKEND AS THE FIRST OF THREE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS MOVE INTO THE REGION.
1149 PM CDT FRI APR 22 2016 CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES RIDGES INTO TEXAS.
556 PM MDT FRI APR 22 2016 HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING HAS CONTRIBUTED TO AMPLE SUNSHINE AND VERY WARM/DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A STRONG UPPER LOW SPINNING OFF COAST OF NORTHERN CA/OR. GOING TO NEED TO WATCH THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF CARBON COUNTY WITH MAV AND MET GUIDANCE BOTH SHOWING 30 KT SUSTAINED WINDS AND 50+ KNOT FLOW AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER.
FREEZING LEVEL AT 12. /ISSUED 349 PM CDT FRI APR 22 2016/ COLD FRONT IS MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA HAS PUSHED ALMOST COMPLETELY THROUGH. IN ADDITION TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE QUICKLY MOVING IN. ENABLE HIGHS TO REACH INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S.
1250 AM EDT SAT APR 23 2016 A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. HIGHS TODAY WILL REBOUND INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S.
628 PM CDT FRI APR 22 2016 HIGH PRESSURE HAS BROUGHT MUCH DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION WITH AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE 20S ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA. TIMING OF ADVANCING CLOUD COVER WILL PLAY A SIGNIFICANT ROLE IN HOW LOW TEMPS WILL FALL AS DEW POINTS ARE IN THE LOW TEENS TO SINGLE DIGITS. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION.
1027 PM MST Sun Dec 4 2016 A warmer night is in store for eastern Utah and western Colorado with increasing mid and high level moisture bringing mostly cloudy to cloudy conditions back into the area. However, impacts from wind driven snow will be felt, especially over the higher passes with gust potential to 50 mph or better.
A brief break in the precipitation chances will occur today as high pressure moves across.
220 AM CST Mon Dec 5 2016 Weak high pressure was across the region early this morning, with considerable low cloud cover along and east of I-55. Even where the low clouds have cleared, high clouds quickly streaming overhead.
324 AM CST Mon Dec 5 2016 A mild but breezy day is expected today ahead of a vigorous upper low moving through the northern Plains this evening and tonight. Earlier arrival of the cold air advection associated with the brisk northwest flow will likely cap temperatures cooler in south central SD.
333 AM EST Mon Dec 5 2016 High pressure over the Middle Mississippi Valley will slide east across the Lower Great Lakes today.
431 AM EST Mon Dec 5 2016 A weakening warm front lifts across the North Country today with widespread light snow through the midday. Low pressure system will track Northeastward through Saint Lawrence valley today. Warm front currently lifting across the area and light snow has begun in Saint Lawrence county, spreading Northeastward across the rest of the forecast area. Skies will remain cloudy through the afternoon hours, with some lingering flurries or light snow showers expected, especially across the higher terrain. Stuck with blended guidance for high temps on Monday with highs in the lower to mid 30s in the valleys and upper 20's in higher elevations. Precipitation will hang on the longest across the higher elevations, but ending everywhere overnight.
Cloudiness will continue near the coast on Monday and cooler conditions as winds turn back onshore and the marine layer builds in.
Low clouds blanket southern WI and adjoining areas early this morning and will persist through the morning as high pressure ridge passes by to the south. Even if low clouds do dissipate later today, upstream warm air advection ahead northern Plains low pressure will bring mid-high level clouds across WI today and tonight. Northern Plains northward drifting low pressure will drag occluding front into western WI late tonight. Weak frontogenetical forcing along boundary and approaching mid-level trof may generate just enough lift for a patchy light mix of precipitation across the western CWA after midnight tonight.
diffuse low pressure which is currently digging into the western Dakotas should coalesce into a strengthening low pressure center in northeast SD by early afternoon. Models are generally consistent in placing the Low center near ABR around 21z. and expect that warmer temps there will slow and sig snowfall accumulations til the late afternoon and evening. Blowing snow could develop during the early morning period in eastern ND as the low pressure center pivots into northwest MN.
1244 AM EST Mon Dec 5 2016 Some locations in the higher elevations are expected to receive freezing rain tonight.
This trof will effectively carve out the longwave trof that will deliver the arctic cold. the fcst area will remain in return flow and strong WAA ahead of the first strong cold front. The flow will become increasingly cyclonic until this trof moves thru KS Wed afternoon/ eve. and Fri it will turn anticyclonic until a low-amplitude ridge is fcst to move thru Fri night. but the first cold front will be along the OK/KS border by dawn Wed. This will overwhelm the low and force it S away from the forcing aloft. The last 5 runs of the EC ensemble mean have averaged 2-4" along and S of Hwy 136 with the highest amts over Nrn KS. A cold front will move through the area during the afternoon and winds will gradually change from south to northwest.
A cold front is expected to progress across the area later tonight bringing cooler temperatures and a period of post-frontal northerly winds of around 15 to 25 mph.
As we go into the day on Monday, we will edge out one day with well above average temperatures for early December as south to southwest flow will advect some warmer temperatures with highs ranging from the lower to mid 60s.
This SE wind flow gradually bringing deeper moisture into the area as low pressure area moves into the western Gulf of Mexico and remnant of old frontal system returns northward across South Florida.
332 AM EST Mon Dec 5 2016 A weak low pressure system will bring some light snow to the region on today.
Development might be a bit patchy due to thick cirrus deck moving into much of the region ahead to incoming southern trough. Next concern will then focus on precip chances after 18Z as trough begins to eject north. In addition, as temps drop below freezing in areas of dense fog, freezing fog could create a few slick spots on bridges, especially over bodies of water. /Issued 406 PM CST Sun Dec 4 2016/ Clearing trend will continue this evening but will reverse course later tonight, as clouds begin to spread back north in advance of the ejecting upper low from Baja. Cloudiness will continue to increase Monday, and rain will spread into southeast Oklahoma by late morning or early afternoon as the upper low begins its trek across Texas towards the Arklatex.
This along with clear skies supported fog development mainly in the low lying areas. Some of the high res models have been struggling with this surface mixing and therefore are overestimating the low level saturation. There is some evidence of some moisture advection in the lowest layers above the surface, which could support development. Highs should manage the lower to mid 50s. Winds will decrease in the evening as a cold front pushes through the area, but will quickly increase out of the northwest tonight along and behind the front. Cooler temperatures then filter in from the north and lows drop into the mid to upper 20s.
326 AM CST Mon Dec 5 2016 Cloud cover over a fresh fallen snow has lead to temperatures staying near or just above freezing tonight across the area. High pressure across the area will drive todays weather. Started with the superblend then tweaked highs to just above freezing over the snowpack.
1029 PM MST Sun Dec 4 2016 Upper level analysis shows a broad trough over much of the CONUS, with closed lows over Mexico and Saskatchewan. At the surface, low pressure is over northern MT, with ridging over the Dakotas and southwest flow over the CWA. Behind the low, a strong cold front will begin pushing through the region, bringing with it a band of snow, strong winds, and much colder air. Snow will begin moving into northeastern WY and the Black Hills this evening, expanding over parts of northwestern SD Monday morning behind the cold front. Lows tonight will be in the 20s, with highs Monday not much warmer, and falling during the afternoon.
A cold front will move across the region later Monday afternoon and evening with winds becoming north. A weak surface trof of low pressure will move across KGUY and KDHT during the mid to late afternoon hours on Monday with winds becoming north-northwest to north. One final warm day expected on Monday with highs mainly in the lower- to mid-60s.
A cold front will enter northern Utah late tonight, then sweep south into central Utah early Monday. The cold front is expected to reach far northern Utah over the next couple of hours and continue to sag across northern Utah overnight, reaching central Utah by sunrise. As a result, expect a generally brief period of valley snow near the cold front for northern Utah with very minor accumulations. Otherwise, a moderate to strong 700-500mb flow should lead to gusty winds along ridgetops and in southwest Wyoming, with blowing and drifting of snow. VFR conditions and southerly winds will prevail at the KSLC terminal through late tonight before winds turn northwest behind a cold front which is expected to arrive within in the 09-11z timeframe. then MVFR to IFR conditions in snow will develop behind the cold front.
Any fog, especially with temps near freezing, may contribute to some slick spots on roads for the morning commute. Some of the high-res models attempt to break out light precip across SE Minnesota into west-central Wisconsin by later in the afternoon associated with the warm advection, but model soundings indicate quite a lot of dry air to overcome, so confidence not high on this initial precip.
An upper-level composite analysis reveals a deep layer mean anticyclone centered over eastern Cuba and the Bahamas, with resulting large-scale subsidence over the NOAA/Florida Keys National Weather Service area of responsibility.
Winds will generally be from the south to southwest through this afternoon then shift to more of a northerly direction tonight as a cold front moves through the area. This is due to an upper level low digging southward into the Northern Plains.
Texas and points downstream across the Lower Mississippi Valley area and much of the Southeastern U.
331 AM CST Mon Dec 5 2016 Areas of dense fog/freezing fog have developed over portions of eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas this morning. Precipitation will spread across the remainder of the area this evening into the overnight hours with the highest rainfall totals across far SE OK/NW AR.
306 AM CST Mon Dec 5 2016 Water vapor imagery shows an upper low churning just s of the Big Bend area with radar showing a precip shield across Trans Pecos. 28" of rain had fallen at the Chisos Basin RAWS (5400 ft) and so supportive of snow in the higher elevations. A cold front will move in Tue AM and will make it to around I10, so todays warm-up will be interrupted Tue. With a minor shrtwv trof, strong upslope component and mid level moisture source that will be cold enough for ice crystal we are becoming more concerned about a corridor of a winter wx that could impact S Culberson, Jeff Davis, N Brewster, S Reeves and Pecos counties.
1139 PM CST Sun Dec 4 2016 Warmer air has started to spread back into the area this afternoon on the backside of the upper trough now moving into the mid Mississippi Valley. The warmer temperatures and full sunshine today has eroded a good part of the snow field located over parts of southeast Nebraska from yesterdays event.
316 PM CDT SAT SEP 17 2016 Low pressure over eastern Lake Superior has continued to produce clouds and scattered showers. This low pressure system should move far enough east tonight to allow a ridge to build in, bringing the showers to an end and clearing skies overnight. Upstream in Canada there were some upper 30s under this ridge, and would not be surprised if some of our cold spots got that cold as well. The warm front moving in will bring increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms in the late afternoon in the far northwest from around KINL towards KBJI.
401 PM EDT Sat Sep 17 2016 A low pressure system was over the Great Lakes with a front extending into the southern plains.
A trough axis and band of deep moisture will continue to work very slowly eastward across Mid TN today. With clouds and showers, temperatures will hold mostly in the 70s, but during the breaks in the rainfall, highs could still privily jump up to the lower to mid 80s. Passage of a cold front will bring drier air and rapid improvement toward the end of the taf period.
(Issued 1017 AM CDT SAT SEP 17 2016) The morning surface analysis shows a cold front roughly from Chicago to Little Rock. BCC For 18Z TAFs: A weak cold front continues to push slowly ewd across the MS river, with lift of an increasingly moist airmass across the region expected to support pockets of -shra thru mid-aftn.
212 PM EDT SAT SEP 17 2016 High pressure ridging into the forecast area from the north will weaken ahead of an approaching cold front.