Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
539 PM CST Wed Nov 16 2022 Light snow will continue to fall along a cold front this afternoon into the evening hours from the Red River Valley eastward. As upper level troughing over the northeastern CONUS persists, the northern Plains looks to remain underneath meridional to northwesterly flow aloft. Currently, a cold front situated over the Red River Valley at this time is leading to some light accumulating snow.
Temperatures will also remain slightly above to just near freezing during the time of highest PoPs and ground temperatures as well as road temperatures remain above freezing. Lows for tonight will drop down into the low to mid 20s. With this in mind, cooler high temps are expected across southern IN, with mid 30s possible.
(Now through Thursday) Very broad upper level troughing persists across the region through Thursday. Highs struggled to rise today across the region, topping out in the lower to middle 50's for most locations.
18Z surface data has several weak low pressure areas over the Great Lakes with a frontal boundary in the Plains. With temperatures right around freezing any additional accumulations would be a dusting at best.
Overnight lows will reach the low 20s with mostly clear skies.
313 PM MST Wed Nov 16 2022 Overview: Troughing /cyclonic flow/ aloft will persist over the CONUS through the remainder of the work week.
The north winds that are blowing around 15 knots and gusting into the low 20s will decouple quickly after about 4 to 5 pm, followed by cooling temperatures dropping into the upper 20s most areas by early evening.
641 PM EST Wed Nov 16 2022 (Through Tonight) High pressure will build from the west through Tonight. High cloudiness will continue to move across region as area is in base of an upper trough.
125 PM PST Wed Nov 16 2022 A blocking high will allow dry and cold conditions to persist through the week.
535 PM CST Wed Nov 16 2022 Water Vapor Satellite Imagery shows a well defined upper level low over the northern CONUS. Models depict several areas of energy along an upper level trough progged to push south into the Rockies and Central CONUS tomorrow. An associated cold front is expected to push through the area tomorrow morning and afternoon, which could generate enough ascent for some light sprinkles ahead of the front before switching over to snow flurries behind it.
High pressure expected to keep cold and dry conditions in place for the Silver state through the weekend. Some patchy freezing fog will be possible near valley drainages and lakes.
Much colder temperatures will arrive this weekend, with daytime highs in the low 30s and overnight lows dropping into the teens. Webcams show evidence that some snow has begun to stick briefly on area roadways where temperatures have dropped below freezing. Cloud cover breaks up in the south but remains thicker in the north, where there is stronger influence from the upper level low.
High clouds are due to arrive this evening with cooler temperatures Thursday. Otherwise the only clouds visible are generally over the coastal waters as the high pressure maintains the dry and mild conditions across the cwa. Otherwise, as the elongated ridge begins to break down towards the end of this weekend, a cutoff low in the eastern pacific will slowly impart lower pressure effects on the area as it slides down the coast from Washington and Oregon.
This atmospheric setup, in combination with clearing skies, will allow for radiational cooling towards and below the freezing mark (especially north of I-20). Clearer skies will also allow for slightly warmer maximum temperatures by tomorrow afternoon in the mid-50s. Light southerly winds will begin to return by tomorrow night as surface ridging shifts to the east, otherwise ideal radiational cooling will push temperature minimums back towards the freezing mark in most areas.
511 PM CST Wed Nov 16 2022 A persistent upper low will bring occasional chances for light snow or flurries today through Thursday.
(The rest of tonight) Another cold night is on tap for eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas tonight as high pressure reigns supreme.
A cold front arrives tonight, bringing scattered snow and considerable wind.
This activity will continue into Thursday as the main upper trough rotates over the area. Could get some brief heavier showers as the steepest of the lapse rates move through, but overall instability on the low side.
Gusty winds that will accompany this snow will likely lead to areas of blowing snow, but the warmer temperatures today may have helped to form a bit of a crust on the previous snowfall. Tonight, the cold front impact takes over as temperatures will drop down into the single digits for most locations.
A dry cold front will cross through the region from the north on Friday bringing chilly temperatures and locally gusty northerly winds.
This trough will bring cooler air into the region, and a few snow showers to the mountains of central Idaho. After the trough moves by, our flow will become northerly Friday night.
Lows will fall into the lower teens and single digits above zero with wind chill values in the single digits below zero overnight. An inverted trough is continuing to progress to the southeast this afternoon with a narrow wedge of clear skies evident on satellite due to a weak upper level ridge. An attendant cold front will bring cooler temperatures as well as gusty winds for Thursday. Winds up to around 25 to 30 knots will also be able to mix down on Thursday as the cold front passes through, leading to blustery west to northwest winds.
It will drive a robust cold front across the region tmrw night,and in so doing, it too may squeeze out a few flurries from a lowering cloud deck, mainly along our northwest border (swil/semo ozarks). Yet another reinforcing blast of colder, drier, high pressure air is progged by the medium range models to sweep into the PAH forecast area Sat night as robust mid level height falls occur across the eastern third of the CONUS. By Tue night, lows may stay AOA freezing. This will likely remain the case through or close to 11Z before the upper-trough and moisture drifts east.
Hi-res models remain focused on the high country as the most likely places for snow but do think there will be enough dynamics aloft to allow for some seeder/feeder snow in the Snake Plain so adjusted PoPs and QPF to account for this. The shift is the result of the upper level ridge being shoved southward and eastward to make way for an incoming low that brings precipitation as well for Tue afternoon and overnight. Expect breezy conditions with this low. One new wrinkle is that a trough moving from north to south may help break up the stratus and fog this afternoon.
On that note, northwesterly winds behind earlier cold frontal passage should begin to increase fairly markedly just beyond daybreak as BL mixing commences.
1010 PM MST Wed Nov 16 2022 Overview: Troughing /cyclonic flow/ aloft will persist over the CONUS through the remainder of the work week. Tonight-Friday night: An upper level low digging southward through Saskatchewan/Manitoba (centered invof 55N/101W at 21Z) will progress southward -- in the form of an increasingly west-east elongated shear axis -- through the Northern Plains (tonight-Thu) and Central Plains (Thu night-Fri). Subsidence /surface pressure rises/ in the wake of this feature will drive ~1050 mb Arctic high pressure (characterized by H85 temperatures around -18C) southward along the lee of the northern Rockies (Thu) and Central Plains (Thu night).
148 AM MST Thu Nov 17 2022 Overview: Troughing /cyclonic flow/ aloft will persist over the CONUS through the remainder of the work week. Tonight-Friday night: An upper level low digging southward through Saskatchewan/Manitoba (centered invof 55N/101W at 21Z) will progress southward -- in the form of an increasingly west-east elongated shear axis -- through the Northern Plains (tonight-Thu) and Central Plains (Thu night-Fri). Subsidence /surface pressure rises/ in the wake of this feature will drive ~1050 mb Arctic high pressure (characterized by H85 temperatures around -18C) southward along the lee of the northern Rockies (Thu) and Central Plains (Thu night).
1042 PM CST Wed Nov 16 2022 (The rest of tonight) Another cold night is on tap for eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas tonight as high pressure reigns supreme.
The north winds that are blowing around 15 knots and gusting into the low 20s will decouple quickly after about 4 to 5 pm, followed by cooling temperatures dropping into the upper 20s most areas by early evening. The positively-tilted mid-level trough will slide into the region overnight Thursday and into Friday morning, shifting any weakly frontogenetic forced snow south into the Panhandles.
This will set up upslope conditions with an upper level trough helping to enhance lift. Expect 1-4 inches of snow in the northern West Virginia mountains, with even some locations in the lowlands possibly seeing a dusting of snow. A weak cold front crosses Friday, with much colder air behind it.
The evening started with a remnant cloud line that developed over the Lower and Middle Keys, more pronounced over the Lower Keys. This cloud line did manage to produce some showers as it drifted off the Lower Keys and over the adjacent waters to the south. As such, did make minor changes to the winds to not only increase slightly but also speed up when the higher winds would start.
1053 PM CST Wed Nov 16 2022 Only minor changes needed to the forecast this evening as temperatures have remained a few degrees warmer in portions of Middle TN where clouds are moving overhead. However, Middle TN is within the brief favorable pva window with sub 800 ft freezing levels in alignment. sat imagery does depict the lower cloudiness moving this way. Moving on, thermal trough amplification will relax but heights will remain quite low. Reinforcement of the cold air will occur Thursday night as, what looks to be, a dry cold front moves through.
A cold front arrives tonight, bringing scattered snow and considerable wind. A cold front, currently over northwestern South Dakota, will pass through the area overnight. Some of the high resolution models indicate a more confined area of snow moving through the MO River valley closer to midnight, tied to the mid-lvl PVA and within the left exit region of the upper jet. To the northeast, lower stratus residing within the DGZ could favor a persistent snow in the higher elevations of the Buffalo Ridge. Soundings indicate potential for 35 knot gusts at times and have pushed the forecast towards the highest end of model guidance.
Subfreezing temps may occur in the metro and surrounding counties during the early morning hours, but it appears at this time that is would only be for a brief period of time. a Colder airmass will continue to move in across the southeast with good CAA setting up today and gets reinforced by a dry cold front moving through Thu.
1138 PM CST Wed Nov 16 2022 (This evening through Friday) H500 longwave troughing remains in place across the middle of the country this afternoon. Fairly benign conditions are expected Thursday before a sfc cold front and H500 wave will progress across the area early on Friday.
Highs are on target to top out in the 40s and lower 50s for most, with upper 30s in the higher terrain and 60s through portions of the Rio Grande Valley in the Big Bend. Of note, however, are the widespread sub-freezing temperatures expected across Central Brewster County as well as in the Chisos Basin. Thursday night, clouds will gradually overspread the region ahead of the next approaching cold front, slated to arrive on Friday.
This should be short lived however, and we should see clearing skies after 12Z behind the exiting trough. The rest of the day will feature building high pressure providing mostly clear skies and chilly temperatures, with highs mainly from the upper 30s to mid 40s. Clear skies and light to calm winds tonight will allow temps to drop into the lower to mid 20s tonight.
Looking ahead to Thursday, a brief return of southwest winds at the surface will allow temperatures to climb into the lower to middle 40s. However, the 40s will be short-lived as clouds build into the region ahead of an approaching cold front. The coldest day of the week comes on Friday with highs struggling to break the freezing mark for most locations.
Warmer temperatures and generally light winds arrive for Thursday, with a return to cooler weather and northerly winds on Friday.
Much colder temperatures will arrive this weekend, with daytime highs in the low 30s and overnight lows dropping into the teens. Webcams show evidence that some snow has begun to stick briefly on area roadways where temperatures have dropped below freezing. Cloud cover breaks up in the south but remains thicker in the north, where there is stronger influence from the upper level low. At the surface, a low pressure system progresses from Wisconsin to Toronto, dragging a cold front along with it. A cold front will be moving through the area at the beginning of the period. Then high pressure will nose into the area.
930 PM CST Wed Nov 16 2022 Only minor changes needed to the forecast this evening as temperatures have remained a few degrees warmer in portions of Middle TN where clouds are moving overhead. However, Middle TN is within the brief favorable pva window with sub 800 ft freezing levels in alignment. sat imagery does depict the lower cloudiness moving this way. Moving on, thermal trough amplification will relax but heights will remain quite low. Reinforcement of the cold air will occur Thursday night as, what looks to be, a dry cold front moves through.
An upper trough over the eastern US will bring several bouts of cold air southward through the weekend. A piece of mid level energy moving through the OH Valley is pushing a reinforcing cold front through this evening with a few clouds and some snow flurries across NW TN.
1057 PM CST Wed Nov 16 2022 (Rest of tonight) An upper trough will remain over the Great Lakes region overnight, and a weak frontal boundary will begin to push through the area around midnight. Temperatures will remain below normal, dropping to the low to mid 20s by the morning.
We have added low precipitation amounts and continued the lower chances of precipitation to account for this. Cold high pressure will continue to move into the area on Friday and with cloud cover expected to continue over much of the area during the day, temperatures will struggle to rise much.
A broad upper level trough is swinging through the eastern US today, while at the surface, strong high pressure is building into the Gulf of Mexico and Florida Peninsula from the north in the wake of the recent cold front. Persistent north winds are setting up modest cold air advection, with afternoon highs today only forecast to top out in the low to mid 60s over the Nature Coast and mid 70s over southwest Florida. Despite the drier airmass, a broad upper level disturbance rounding the base of the trough will bring isolated rain chances throughout the weekend, but heavy rain is not expected.
(Today through Friday afternoon) Satellite this morning is showing cloud cover across the entirety of the CWA that is gradually moving east as an upper trough moves across New Mexico. An amplifying West Coast ridge and another trough moving across the Central Plains will push a cold front into the Permian Basin Friday morning. Have stayed close to ensemble NBM guidance with this forecast though am wary that temps could be a bit colder if the higher resolution of the NAM in the lower levels does a better job of capturing the surface cold pool.
1222 AM EST Thu Nov 17 2022 A cooler, dry post-frontal air low level airmass was funneling southward across the forecast area this evening under NW winds up to about 850 mb, then winds back westerly to southwesterly in the mid and upper levels with long wave troughing still upstream of the area. An 850 mb trough axis extended across the central Gulf Coast region with some stratiform drizzle reported at the surface across SE AL. Locally, expect mostly dry and cloudy conditions tonight under high clouds an increasing mid level clouds, but there could be a few light patches of drizzle after midnight across our SE GA zones and the Suwannee River Valley as this weak trough axis passes across the area through Thursday morning.
(Rest of tonight) An upper trough will remain over the Great Lakes region overnight, and a weak frontal boundary will begin to push through the area around midnight. Temperatures will remain below normal, dropping to the low to mid 20s by the morning.
(Today through Friday) Cold front that brought some scattered flurries to northern portions of the midstate yesterday evening has moved off to our east, and much colder and drier air is now in place with temperatures in the upper 20s to low 30s and dewpoints in the 10s. Temps will be slightly warmer on Friday but still cold with lows in the 20s and highs in the 40s prior to a reinforcing cold front pushing through the region.
A cold front will begin approaching from the northwest overnight and likely push into the region during the early morning hours tomorrow.
157 AM PST Thu Nov 17 2022 A blocking high will allow for dry and cold conditions to persist through the week, with only a slight moderation in temperatures this afternoon. A dry backdoor cold front expected to drop into our region Thursday night into Friday will bring another round of cooler temperatures for the weekend, along with gusty easterly ridgetop winds. Our region remains on the southeastern side of an omega blocking pattern that extends through B. In addition to keeping our weather rather quiet, this ridge will allow for temperatures to climb up to the warmest they've been this week; although this is relative since they'll still be below average for the middle of November. At the surface, a dry backdoor cold front will quickly push through the Great Basin between this evening and early Friday.
230 AM MST Thu Nov 17 2022 Snow will begin to taper off this morning, but could linger into the afternoon hours over and near the higher terrain of North- central Montana. Afternoon highs today will likely be in the lower teens at most locations, with overnight lows in the single digits and teens below zero Friday morning. As the snow continues to diminish from north to south, effects of the Arctic front begin to reveal its evil head with afternoon temperatures in the lower teens across the board.
Winds will begin to back off by the late afternoon hours as the Upper low moves out over the Great Lakes. Troughing will continue across the eastern CONUS resulting in persistent northwesterly flow over the Northern Plains.
412 AM MST Thu Nov 17 2022 The cold front continues to blast southward across the state, currently stretching from CPR west through the Wind River Basin into far western WY. Friday will be clear and cold with high pressure in the region.
(Today) A cold front continues to moves southeast through the area at 3 AM CST. Temperatures along and ahead of the front with some winds remaining around 5 mph have only dropped into the lower 30s despite mostly clear skies. Even colder and drier air will move into the area behind this cold front today.
Cloud cover in the mid and upper levels will gradually increase tonight as an upper level trough axis approaches from the west. In advance of this trough, weak warm air advection will lead to an increase in moisture and clouds from late evening into Thursday. As previously mentioned, dry and cool air could lead to wet-bulbing effects where a stronger shower could result in a brief sleet/rain mix with temperatures in the lower to mid 40s.
Another cold front will begin moving through the region Thursday afternoon, with winds behind the front shifting out of the northeast and the cooler airmass arriving in the evening and overnight into Friday. High temperatures for Friday will range to the 50s across Oklahoma to the low 60s in western North Texas. Cloud cover will increase behind the cold front. As the cold air continues to move into the region, there is a slight chance of some light snow/snow flurries developing through primarily northwestern Oklahoma along the cold frontal deformation zone in the low levels (850mb).
606 AM CST Thu Nov 17 2022 (Today) A cold front continues to moves southeast through the area at 3 AM CST. Temperatures along and ahead of the front with some winds remaining around 5 mph have only dropped into the lower 30s despite mostly clear skies. Even colder and drier air will move into the area behind this cold front today.
Meanwhile, off the Caprock into the Rolling Plains, the temperatures will remain just slightly warmer into the upper 20s. With plenty of sunshine temperatures will be a few degrees warmer today than yesterday with highs in the mid-50s along the Caprock and upper 50s off the Caprock. Temperatures will be slightly cooler Friday morning than this morning as the cold air fills in behind the front.
One last short wave to move south around this large upper trough over Ontario Friday afternoon and evening. Northwest to northerly flow aloft continues as a trough lingers around the Great Lakes and Hudson Bay region.
(Today through Friday) A cold front is passing through the area right now. A cold high pressure system will build in today and will serve to keep the area quite chilly.
650 AM EST Thu Nov 17 2022 A broad upper level trough is swinging through the eastern US today, while at the surface, strong high pressure is building into the Gulf of Mexico and Florida Peninsula from the north in the wake of the recent cold front. Persistent north winds are setting up modest cold air advection, with afternoon highs today only forecast to top out in the low to mid 60s over the Nature Coast and mid 70s over southwest Florida. Despite the drier airmass, a broad upper level disturbance rounding the base of the trough will bring isolated rain chances throughout the weekend, but heavy rain is not expected.
Cold pattern prevails through this weekend as an elongated trough remains over the Midwest and Northeast. Snowfall rates have diminished, likely due to mid-level ridging over central Ohio. For this afternoon, the ridge is expected to extend north into eastern Lake Erie and shift lake effect potential into Buffalo, NY as winds prevail from the southwest.
A cloudy day with cooler temperatures is expected.
Strongest winds will be across the higher terrain of the North and East Bay interior, but fire weather concern remains limited. High pressure continues to build today while weak offshore flow remains in place into this afternoon. General flow is expected to return to onshore briefly later this evening and overnight as a trough begins to drop southward out of the Pacific Northwest. By Friday afternoon, ensemble guidance places the upper low into the SoCal/southern Great Basin region, which will act to crank up the offshore flow once again. Current thinking is still that the pattern generally favors the highest winds in the higher terrain of the North Bay and East Bay hills where winds are expected to gust up to 40 mph.
It is noticeably cooler today due to yesterday's passage of a cold front, which has stalled over South Florida and is credited with dense low clouds this morning. Current temperatures range from the upper 50s to upper 60s, which is 10 to 15 degrees cooler than 24 hours prior. Time to dig out the jackets and sweaters, Florida, because our fall has arrived! Made minor adjustments to the low temperature forecast tonight, dropping values a degree further, which will approach 40 degrees in northern Lake and Volusia counties, spreading the mid 40s across the rest of the interior and northern coast, to low 50s elsewhere. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for the offshore Atlantic waters through this evening due seas up to 7ft in the Gulf Stream, in addition to the higher winds.
533 AM CST Thu Nov 17 2022 Cyclonic flow from an upper level trough lingering over southern Canada is still dominating the weather pattern in the Mid- Mississippi Valley.