Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
THIS FEATURE STRETCHES BETWEEN THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA. AS IT DOES THIS A WEAK RIDGE WILL DEVELOP IN THE NORTHERN STREAM OVER THE TOP OF THE LOW. OUR FORECAST AREA WILL MOSTLY BE INFLUENCED BY THE RIDGE AS THE SOUTHERN LOW STAYS TOO FAR SOUTH TO IMPACT THE AREA MUCH. THIS IS QUITE A BIT COOLER THAN WE HAVE SEEN FOR THE PREVIOUS WEEK OR SO. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT AS A FLAT RIDGE SETTLES OVER THE AREA.
408 AM EDT FRI MAR 20 2015 WEAK LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST WILL TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY. WEDGE EROSION LATE TODAY WITH DRYING DEVELOPING TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S (SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ORIENTATION ACROSS THE AREA) WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S.
WEAK CAA AND A TIGHTENING OF THE SFC PRESS GRAD TO THE WEST OF THE LOW WILL CREATE WINDY CONDITIONS OVER MUCH OF WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL SLIP INTO NORTHWESTERN SD. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT WIDESPREAD LOW STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG OVER PARTS OF WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY AS THE COOLER AIR MOVES WESTWARD. SATURDAY WILL BE DRY AND COOLER.
MAINLY BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES. THE FRONT REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES THAN TODAY.
THIS WILL KEEP IT COOLER AT THE BEACHES AND THE EXTRA HEATING INLAND WILL PROVIDE FOR JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT A FEW STORMS AS THE TWO SEABREEZES COME TOGETHER NEAR THE I-75 CORRIDOR OF NE FL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. MAINLY ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH INTO SE GA.
341 AM EDT FRI MAR 20 2015 LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND OFF THE COAST TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND. SO THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING SNOW/SLEET IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE HIGHLANDS. AND WENT WITH WARMER READINGS ACROSS THE SOUTH WHERE CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER FOR MIXING TO SCOUR THE CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY NOSE ITS WAY INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST TONIGHT.
422 AM CDT Fri Mar 20 2015 (Today and Tonight) A cold front is currently moving south through the forecast area early this morning. In the upper levels, a powerful upper level low is currently spinning over the top of the northern Baja Peninsula, with a 120+ 250mb jet streak extending from just west of the Big Bend area, northeast across Oklahoma, and then into the Ohio River valley. The upper level low will move into the the northwestern Mexico mainland by early Saturday morning. Temperatures today will be much cooler than yesterday, with highs only getting into the lower 60s in most areas. Lows tonight will be cooler, but will be moderated by moisture and cloud cover, so have gone with mid 40s to around 50 degrees.
249 AM EDT FRI MAR 20 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE TODAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS OUT TO SEA SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
WILL CARRY SHRA/TSRA THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AS AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS HUNG UP OVER CENTRAL-NORTH CENTRAL STATE AND OUR REGIONAL AIR MASS IS UNSEASONABLY MOIST AND MARGINALLY UNSTABLE. ATOP GULF RIDGING AND ENTER THIS PRIMED- TO-PRECIPITATE RESIDENT AIR MASS.
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER KENTUCKY WILL DRIFT EAST TO APPALACHIA BY THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT PLAINS WILL BUILD EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. COOL HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO LINGER ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
AN UPPER LOW IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM IS SITTING OVER THE BAJA. A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT LYING ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTHEAST TEXAS AND LOUISIANA WILL BE FORCED SOUTH WITH TIME AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH OVER THE PLAINS IN THE WAKE OF THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH.
BROUGHT POPS UP INTO THE HIGH CHANCE CATEGORY FOR 06-12Z SATURDAY MORNING OVER THE COLUMBIA BASIN. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE UP TO A TENTH INCH IN THE LOWER BASINS/VALLEYS WITH A QUARTER TO HALF INCH IN THE MOUNTAINS.
CIGS AND VSBYS A BIT SLOWER TO DEVELOP AND FILL IN OVER LRD WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS OR SO AS INFRARED SATELLITE SHOWING THE LOW CIGS SPREADING FARTHER WEST.
LOW THETA-E AIR WILL CONTINUE TO WORK ITS WAY INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH AS SURFACE RIDGING SETTLES IN. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA WILL MAKE A SLIGHT JOG TO THE SOUTHEAST TODAY LEADING TO SHORT WAVE RIDGING ALOFT OVER WEST TEXAS. THE UPPER LOW LOCATED NEAR BAJA STILL IS EXPECTED TO SWING OUT ACROSS SOUTHWEST TEXAS LATE SATURDAY.
MODELS SHOW THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES PUSHING EASTWARD OVER THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE TODAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE 60S TO LOW 70S ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS WITH HIGHS NEAR 60 OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF ALBANY AND CARBON COUNTIES TODAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL BE EVEN WARMER. AND GENERALLY IN THE 70S ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS WITH A FEW LOCATIONS NEAR 80 SUCH AS SCOTTSBLUFF. HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOW 60S WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.
THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS HUNG UP OVER CENTRAL-NORTH CENTRAL STATE AND OUR REGIONAL AIR MASS IS UNSEASONABLY MOIST AND MARGINALLY UNSTABLE. ATOP GULF RIDGING AND ENTER THIS PRIMED- TO-PRECIPITATE RESIDENT AIR MASS.
HIGH PRESSURE AND A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS INFLUENCES THE REGION TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
648 AM EDT FRI MAR 20 2015 A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING. CAUSING LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW TO END ACROSS OUR AREA. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME PARTLY SUNNY THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES QUICKLY EAST THROUGH THE AREA ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. DRY COLD FRONT EMANATING FROM SHEARED PV FILAMENT PASSING TO OUR NORTH WILL CROSS THE AREA DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE DAY SATURDAY. AS IS OFTEN THE CASE WITH MORNING COLD FRONTAL PASSAGES. COULD REMAIN STUCK IN THE LOW 40S WHILE A LATER FRONTAL PASSAGE IN OUR SOUTHEAST COULD ALLOW TEMPS TO APPROACH 60F.
THIS WILL LEAD TO CONSIDERABLY WARMER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
339 AM CDT FRI MAR 20 2015 LOW PRESSURE ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WILL SHIFT EAST TODAY. WHILE THE LOW WILL REMAIN CENTERED TO THE NORTH. THE COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING INTRODUCING COOLER AIR TO THE REGION. COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH TONIGHT ACROSS THE REGION. COOLING THINGS SLIGHTLY IN THE NORTH AND KEEPING TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 30S ACROSS THE SOUTH.
WILL BE TAKING DOWN THE HIGHLIGHTS FOR THE SOUTHERN MTS WITH THE MORNING PACKAGE. WILL STILL MAINTAIN SOME ISOLATED POPS THIS MORNING FOR THE SOUTHWEST MTS AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO RANGE AS THESE AREAS WILL STILL BE UNDER THE WEAK DEFORMATION/TROF AXIS. THIS COULD LEAD TO POCKETS OF MODERATE TO BRIEFLY HEAVY SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. LEE TROF SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES WARMER ACROSS THE LOWER EASTERN SLOPES/I-25 CORRIDOR TONIGHT.
WITH HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING IN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES. A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS DROPPING SOUTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND CENTRAL PLAINS. RANGING FROM THE LOW 40S NORTH OF I-64. THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST TOWARDS OUR AREA THROUGH TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TONIGHT. BEFORE GETTING TEMPORARILY BUCKLED BY A COLD FRONT THAT WILL SWING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY. WILL STAY ON THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE TODAY. HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.
WITH HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING IN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES. A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS DROPPING SOUTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND CENTRAL PLAINS. RANGING FROM THE LOW 40S NORTH OF I-64. THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST TOWARDS OUR AREA THROUGH TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TONIGHT. BEFORE GETTING TEMPORARILY BUCKLED BY A COLD FRONT THAT WILL SWING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY. WILL STAY ON THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE TODAY. HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 50S. THEY ALL AGREE THAT SPLIT FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE CONTINENT WITH A DEEP TROUGH IN PLACE NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES AND A WEAKER ONE THROUGH OLD MEXICO.
UPPER TROUGH HAS MOVED INTO NORTHWEST COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON. UPPER TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO.
THE NEXT SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE AREA IS A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH TODAY. SHOULD BE DRY ACROSS THE AREA FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE NORTH.
At 500mb, a current split pattern over the west is leading to confluent zonal flow across the Lower Ohio Valley. Highs will stay cool today, remaining in the lower to mid 50s. Lows tonight will fall into the lower 40s, with light winds. On Saturday, weak high pressure overhead will lead to warmer temperatures, clear to partly cloudy skies, and light winds.
A COLD FRONT IS LOCATED ALONG A LINE FROM SAN ANGELO TOWARD FORTH WORTH AND MOVING SOUTH. SPC MESOANALYSIS IS INDICATING STRONGER MID AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE OVERSPREADING THE BIG BEND OF TEXAS AND COUPLED WITH THE LOW-LEVEL FRONTAL CONVERGENCE.
Upper ridge over Montana today for warm and dry conditions through Saturday morning. A short wave sweeps through ridge along Canada/U. border Saturday afternoon along with a weak, associated cold front.
342 AM EDT FRI MAR 20 2015 A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME PARTLY SUNNY THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES QUICKLY EAST THROUGH THE AREA ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE LOWER 50S. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. DRY COLD FRONT EMANATING FROM SHEARED PV FILAMENT PASSING TO OUR NORTH WILL CROSS THE AREA DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE DAY SATURDAY. AS IS OFTEN THE CASE WITH MORNING COLD FRONTAL PASSAGES. COULD REMAIN STUCK IN THE LOW 40S WHILE A LATER FRONTAL PASSAGE IN OUR SOUTHEAST COULD ALLOW TEMPS TO APPROACH 60F.
MAY SEE SPORADIC SLEET OR EVEN FREEZING RAIN DEPENDING ON WHAT SURFACE TEMPERATURES DO FOR THE REST OF THE AM HOURS. AS THE LOW TRACKS OFF TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST FRIDAY. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTH BEHIND A SFC COLD FRONT. AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND CLOUDS CLEAR MIXING WILL INCREASE AND SHOULD SEE THE HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE DAY THIS EVENING. THE LOW STRATUS FIELD ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING GIVEN THE LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE TRENDS AND 16-18 UTC HRRR ITERATIONS. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S ARE POSSIBLE. NEAR THE WARMER EDGE OF THE 12 UTC SUITE.
MODELS INDICATE THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH.
These pleasant conditions will not last long, as a quick-moving cold front is still set to cross the Northern Rockies Saturday.
259 AM MDT FRI MAR 20 2015 UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL CENTER ITSELF ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY RESULTING IN SUNNY SKIES AND WARMER TEMPERATURES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING ALTHOUGH LOCATIONS IN/NEAR THE FOOTHILLS WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER WITH LIGHT DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT. 850-700 MB TEMPS RISE A FEW DEGREES SO WILL HAVE HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S OVER NERN CO. FOR MON NIGHT INTO TUE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS WY AND THEN CLOSE OFF INTO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTH DAKOTA. TEMPS WILL BE COOLER OVER NERN CO WITH READINGS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S. IN ADDITION COOLER AIR WILL MOVE ACROSS NERN CO IN ASSOCIATION WITH A COUPLE OF FNTS.
230 AM PDT FRI MAR 20 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEVADA AND EASTERN CALIFORNIA WILL BRING A WARM AND DRY AFTERNOON AGAIN TODAY.
THE AIR MASS ACROSS NEW MEXICO AND INTO SOUTHWEST CO WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY UNSTABLE AHEAD OF THE BAJA LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS IN SW FLOW AHEAD OF AN UPPER LOW OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA WHICH CONTINUES TO PUMP MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE FOUR CORNERS. SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR ACROSS NERN UT AND NWRN CO THIS EVENING AS AN UPPER TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN STREAM SHEARS OUT ACROSS CO.
HIGH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE RIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. COLDEST 925 TEMPS ARRIVE SATURDAY NIGHT AS NORTHEAST WINDS USHER IN COLDER AROUND THE HIGH.
THE HIGHEST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ACROSS INLAND SE TX/C LA WITH AN AREAL AVERAGE OF 2-3 INCHES THIS WEEKEND. THE END OF THE PRECIP IS EXPECTED BY SUN AFTERNOON/EVENING TIME FRAME AS THE LOW AND UPPER LEVEL TROF KICKS NE OF THE REGION. WARM MOIST AIR OVER-RIDING COOLER NEAR SHORE WATERS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR DENSE FOG TO CONTINUE THIS MORNING.
RIDGING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND THE SOUTHEAST CONUS WITH AN UPPER HIGH OVER CUBA. TROUGH FROM HUDSON BAY LOW INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. SATURDAY A STALLING COOL FRONT WILL BEGIN TO PUSH BACK TO THE NORTHEAST AS A WARM FRONT. HAVE SIDED WITH THE WARMER VALUES.
EXPANDED HIGH-END CATEGORICAL POPS A BIT MORE SOUTH THAN WHAT I HAD FOR THE EARLY MORNING FORECAST PACKAGE WITH SEVERAL SITES REPORTING LIGHT RAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE LOW. EXPECT MAINLY LIGHT RAIN FOR MOST AREAS THIS MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES INCREASING TO ABOVE FREEZING ALONG AND BEHIND THE LEADING EDGE OF THE MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK. NORTH OF A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SURFACE COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH THROUGH THE STATE WITH A BREEZY NORTH WIND AT TIMES.
450 AM EDT FRI MAR 20 2015 A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH KENTUCKY THIS MORNING.
331 AM CDT Fri Mar 20 2015 Northern branch upper trough was passing through the Central Plains early this morning with high cloud downstream of the southern branch cutoff system in the southwest states moving out of Kansas, with low cloud also exiting. The modifying airmass should keep fog in check for tonight with lows several degrees warmer. Split flow pattern starts off the forecast Saturday with an upper level trough over Mexico with a trough moving into the Pacific northwest.
643 AM EDT FRI MAR 20 2015 WEAK LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST WILL TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY. WEDGE EROSION LATE TODAY WITH DRYING DEVELOPING TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.
138 AM EDT FRI MAR 20 2015 LOW PRESSURE CROSSING THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BRING INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. SOUTHEAST FLOW AND COLD AIR DAMMING SHOULD HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES JUST BELOW FREEZING IN PARTS OF GARRETT COUNTY MD ONCE THE TEMPERATURES ARE REALIZED LATER TONIGHT AND RESULT IN A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR GARRETT COUNTY WAS LEFT UNCHANGED TO ACCOUNT FOR THE FREEZING RAIN. POTENTIAL SNOW ACCUMULATION IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD KEEP CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION INTO FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE WEAK RIDGING BUILDS IN OVERNIGHT. COOL AND DRY WEATHER IS PROJECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THE WAKE OF A SATURDAY NIGHT FRONT.
345 AM MST FREE MAR 20 2015 TODAY IS A TRANSITION DAY TO FAIR WEATHER AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES OUT OF THE STATE.
OUR CWA WILL REMAIN DOWNSTREAM OF THE CLOSED LOW THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO DRAW UP PACIFIC MOISTURE ACROSS OUR REGION. MODEL CONSENSUS MOVES THE WEAK COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST INTO OUR DELTA REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND IT IS EXPECTED TO HAVE ENOUGH MOMENTUM TO PUSH SOUTH OF OUR CWA LATE THIS EVENING BEFORE STALLING. A WEAK CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT AND BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR TO THE LOW LEVELS. THE RAIN WILL MOVE BACK OVER OUR CWA FROM THE SOUTHWEST SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING CLOSED LOW THAT WILL OPEN INTO AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.
An upper level ridge will keep Montana mostly dry and warmer today and Friday. Energy from a series of weak to moderate disturbances will ride over the ridge axis into Canada during this time frame. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms can be expected during the afternoon hours and a Pacific cold front could push east of the divide by late afternoon.
COOLER AIR FUNNELS IN BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT. WHILE MUCH COOLER. WHAT IT LACKS IN UPPER LEVEL PUNCH IT MAKES UP FOR IN THE LOWER LAYERS. GFS/NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THE BULK OF THE ATMOSPHERE IS BELOW FREEZING.
Confidence in widespread heavy rain and flooding has increased as A strong cold front currently along the I-10 corridor continues to plow south across the region. Disturbances in this flow will likely lead to several rounds of showers and thunderstorms before the trough passes by Saturday night. The focus for precipitation today will be mainly along and south of I-20 closer to where the cold front and best moisture is. Some heavy rain and localized flooding is possible within stronger storms mainly in the Lower Trans Pecos. The upper trough will finally begin to lift across the region tonight and Saturday.
354 AM CDT FRI MAR 20 2015 A SPLIT UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE OVER THE LOWER 48 STATES THROUGH SATURDAY. UNDER DIFFLUENT FLOW AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING SOUTHERN BRANCH UPPER LOW.
406 AM EDT FRI MAR 20 2015 WEAK LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST WILL TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY. WEDGE EROSION LATE TODAY WITH DRYING DEVELOPING TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.
MILD AND DRY CONDITIONS TODAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS INTO SE OREGON EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AND INTO SW IDAHO BY EARLY AFTERNOON. FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO FOCUS PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE EAST-CENTRAL OREGON AND WEST-CENTRAL IDAHO MTNS WHICH FITS WITH THE SW TO NE PATH OF THIS FEATURE AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE UNDERLYING LONG WAVE RIDGE. THOUGH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS EXISTS ACROSS THE LOWER TREASURE VALLEY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE COOLER AIR MASS ON SATURDAY TAKES 5-10 DEGREES OFF OF TODAY/S HIGH TEMPS.
DETERIORATED CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING CKV/BNA AND WELL THROUGH TONIGHT CSV IN THE WAKE OF A PASSING COLD FRONT. /ISSUED 253 AM CDT FRI MAR 20 2015/ UPPER TROUGH TO OUR WEST WILL BRING LIGHT RAIN INTO NORTHWEST MIDDLE TENNESSEE BY 5 OR 6 AM THIS MORNING WITH THE RAIN TRANSLATING EASTWARD AS WE GO THROUGH THE DAY. BY SATURDAY NIGHT SOUTHERN STREAM STARTS WORKING UPPER TROUGH IN THIS DIRECTION FROM SOUTH TEXAS.
342 AM PDT Fri Mar 20 2015 Cooler today and this weekend as a weak system clips the north state with a chance of precipitation well north of Sacramento Friday night and Saturday.
WITH A TROUGH AXIS PUSHING THROUGH. WITH 3 PM OBS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S IN THE SE WITH MORE CLOUDS/PRECIP TO THE LOWER 60S IN THE NW. WHILE A RIDGE AXIS BUILDS INTO PORTIONS OF THE ROCKIES. WITH WINDS REMAINING WESTERLY AS HIGH PRESSURE SITS OVER THE SRN PLAINS AND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NRN ROCKIES. COMBINED WITH THE LOW RH VALUES FORECAST ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA THANKS TO LOW DPTS AND WARM TEMPS IN THE LOWER 70S. LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY A WEAK COLD FRONT SLIDES SOUTH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE FOR DRY WEATHER AND WARMING TEMPERATURES THROUGH SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST OVER CENTRAL INDIANA SATURDAY. WHICH WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA.
1217 AM CDT FRI MAR 20 2015 A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUED TO CREATE AREAS OF VERY LIGHT RAIN AND POSSIBLY SOME LIGHT SNOW IN SPOTS. TRAILING COLD FRONT ACROSS NRN WI AND INTO E-CENTRAL MN WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING WITH A LIGHT RAIN/SNOW MIX FRIDAY EVENING CHANGING OVER TO ALL SNOW FRI NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW ON SATURDAY ALONG WITH A DRY/COLD CANADIAN AIR MASS.
253 AM CDT FRI MAR 20 2015 UPPER TROUGH TO OUR WEST WILL BRING LIGHT RAIN INTO NORTHWEST MIDDLE TENNESSEE BY 5 OR 6 AM THIS MORNING WITH THE RAIN TRANSLATING EASTWARD AS WE GO THROUGH THE DAY. BY SATURDAY NIGHT SOUTHERN STREAM STARTS WORKING UPPER TROUGH IN THIS DIRECTION FROM SOUTH TEXAS.
THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS MID-LEVEL DEFORMATION CONTINUES TO WEAKEN ABOVE THE COOLER. INCREASINGLY STABLE POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS IN WAKE OF A COLD FRONT THAT HAS NOW PUSHED SOUTH OF MIDLAND AND ABILENE. THE AFOREMENTIONED CLOSED LOW OVER BAJA/NORTHWEST MEXICO WILL OPEN UP AND PROPAGATE EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTH TX SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
A COLD FRONT JUST OFFSHORE WILL MOVE GRADUALLY INLAND ACROSS WESTERN WASHINGTON THROUGH THIS EVENING. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT ON SATURDAY FOR SHOWERS AND A PUGET SOUND CONVERGENCE ZONE.
THE FRONT REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES THAN TODAY.
957 PM EST SAT MAR 7 2015 A WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM TRACKS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT AND PUSHES IT'S WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR REGION EARLY SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE.
WINDS ARE CALM AND THE DRY AIR WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL TO NEAR OR JUST BELOW FREEZING IN MOST AREAS. PLEASANT CONDITIONS ARE PRESENT TODAY UNDER THIS RIDGE WITH CLEAR SKIES AND OVERALL LIGHT WINDS AND CLOSE TO NEAR NORMAL EARLY MARCH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AND A CLEAR RADAR. AS THE UPPER TROUGH DIGS OVER THE SOUTHWEST INTO NORTHERN MEXICO. ALLOWING FOR WARMER/MOIST AIR TO FILTER INTO THE REGION.
A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPING SOUTH ALONG THE COAST WILL INCREASE MOISTURE AND ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AS WELL BRINGING AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN FOR THE EASTERN ZONES. THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING S/W INFLUENCES AND THE COASTAL TROUGH WILL LEAD TO HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS SUNDAY. WOULD EXPECT TEMPS TO REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE IN THE LOW/MID 60S.
LOW LEVEL DOWNSLOPE WINDS AND COMPRESSIONAL WARMING AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT ALLOWED READINGS TO PUNCH INTO THE LOWER 60S AT BILLINGS. THE COLD FRONT JUST WENT THROUGH BILLINGS THIS HOUR. DESPITE THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. BUT THE GFS ADVERTISES SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES AT 850 AND 700MB ON SUNDAY.
801 PM MST SAT MAR 7 2015 MODELS CONTINUE TO KEEP A STRONG UPPER RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST WHICH ALLOWS A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW TO PREVIAL ACROSS THE REGION.
DENVER CYCLONE HAS DEVELOPED WITH THE SOUTHEAST WINDS OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS AND I25 CORRIDOR LATE TONIGHT.
FURTHER SOUTH WARM LAYER IS MORE PRONOUNCED ABOVE FREEZING. HELPING TO LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN.
AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKED THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. TONIGHT TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN INTO THE MID 30S (NORTH) TO LOWER 40S (SOUTH) THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT. AND THUS WILL CONTINUE TO SKEW MINS IN BETWEEN THE WARMER MET/MAV GUIDANCE VS COLDER EURO TEMPS. SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY SE MICHIGAN WILL START OUT SUNDAY IN BETWEEN THE REMAINS OF THE COLD FRONT FROM TONIGHT SETTLED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND AN ARCTIC FRONT POSITIONED JUST NORTH OF LAKE HURON. GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES ARE REASONABLE CALLING FOR HIGHS IN THE MID 30S SUNDAY AND LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S SUNDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN AFTER MIDNIGHT AND MAINLY SUNSHINE AND MILD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY. A LITTLE COOLER BUT STILL MILD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
1009 PM EST SAT MAR 7 2015 A FEW PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN AND SHOWERS HAVE PUSHED SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE LOWER AND UPPER KEYS AND SURROUNDING WATERS FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE AREA NEAR THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE LOWER KEYS CONTINUES TO DIMINISH IN COVERAGE. CONTINUES TO ARC THROUGH THE LOWER KEYS FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF AND INTO THE STRAITS.
IF THERE IS AN AREA OF THE CWA THAT STANDS A CHANCE AT SEEING LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET OR SNOW. IT'S ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM MOBRIDGE TO FAULKTON TO MILLER.
A WEAK AND DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR REGION LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. OTHERWISE A GRADUAL MODERATION OF TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL THIS WEEK AS UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL AND AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS EAST TOWARDS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY MID WEEK.
Clearing skies will continue overnight as high pressure builds and patchy fog may develop late tonight into Sunday morning.
AS THE WAVE MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS, A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH THROUGH WESTERN KANSAS THROUGH MUCH OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS DURING THE DAY AND THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.