Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
936 PM EDT THU MAY 7 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE AREA'S WEATHER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
/ISSUED 216 PM EDT THU MAY 7 2015/ THE MID LEVEL LARGE SCALE PATTERN SHOWS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA, A RIDGE OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO, AND A LOW NORTHEAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.
THE NAM AND THE GFS ADVERTISE CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST TEXAS FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE 500MB LOW/TROUGH ACROSS CALIFORNIA EDGING SLOWLY EASTWARD TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND A SURFACE DRYLINE DRAPED ACROSS NORTHWEST TEXAS. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH WHERE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT BUT WILL MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA FRIDAY INTO FRI NIGHT AS THE 500MB LOW/TROUGH ACROSS CALIFORNIA MOVES EASTWARD INTO ARIZONA/NORTHWEST MEXICO FRI NIGHT.
/ISSUED 254 PM CDT Thu May 7 2015/ An upper level low is dropping south along the west coast keeping upper level flow backed from the southwest over eastern New Mexico and west Texas. Dewpoints in the low to mid 60s east of the dryline will provide enough instability for a few storms to develop this evening and tonight especially north and east of Midland. The upper low will move into the southwestern U. The upper low could also bring strong winds to the Guadalupe Mountains as it passes just north of the area and a High Wind Watch may be needed within the next 24 hours.
813 PM EDT THU MAY 7 2015 HIGH PRESSURE JUST OFF THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST.
COLD FRONT AT 19Z WAS LOCATED FROM NORTHWEST IOWA SOUTHWARD THROUGH NORTHEAST KANSAS. FRIDAY APPEARS COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND A NORTHERLY WINS.
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR TEMPS TO END UP A FEW DEGREES COOLER IN ANY AREAS WHERE ANY CLEAR PATCHES DO OCCUR. WITH STEADY LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WHICH HAS CLEARED THE AREA.
1103 PM EDT THU MAY 7 2015 HIGH PRESSURE HAS BROUGHT DRY AND INCREASINGLY WARM WEATHER TODAY INTO FRIDAY.
THE DESCENDING BRANCH OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTNIUES ACROSS THE AREA.
Warmer and drier weather is expected over the weekend.
947 PM PDT THU MAY 7 2015 High pressure will gradually build into the region through the weekend, resulting in mostly clear skies and warming temperatures. but most likely a cooling trend will take place along with a chance of showers as a low pressure system tracks near or across the region. Dry conditions will prevail across the Inland Northwest as an upper ridge axis nears the Pacific Northwest coast. Temperatures on Friday will be a few degrees warmer than todays readings.
SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS AFTERNOON PLACES A COLD FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS AND A DRYLINE EXTENDING SOUTH ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND WEST TEXAS.
810 PM EDT THU MAY 7 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE AREA'S WEATHER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
803 PM EDT THU MAY 7 2015 HIGH PRESSURE HAS BROUGHT DRY AND INCREASINGLY WARM WEATHER TODAY INTO FRIDAY.
RAIN BAND ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE WELL OFFSHORE GA HAS BEEN WORKING STEADILY SOUTHWARD WHILE DECREASING COVERAGE AS IT ENCOUNTERS DRY SUBSIDENT AIR SHOWN ON 00Z JAX SOUNDING.
COLD FRONT JUST NW OF IA INTO CENTRAL KS TO PUSH INTO SE IA AND NW MO BY SUNRISE FRI.
AREAS OF FGEN ARE VARIOUS LEVELS FROM NEAR THE COLD FRONT FROM ST. A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM NEAR FLAG ISLAND TO SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA AS OF 20Z. SHOWERS/STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND WITH THE ADDED LIFT OF THE APPROACHING UPPER WAVE. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER FIFTIES OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA TO 60 TO 65 OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA EARLY THIS WEEKEND WILL PROVIDE THE NORTHLAND WILL COOL AND DRY NORTH TO NE FLOW.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING IN OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AS THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE OF THE GEORGIA COAST CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH.
SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL PERSIST INTO FRIDAY AHEAD OF AN UPPER LOW MOVING TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. A BIG NEGATIVE FACTOR FOR SEVERE, IS THE AREA COULD BE CAPPED WITH LOTS OF CLOUDS FORECAST NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL INCREASE INTO FRIDAY AS STRONGER UPPER JET STREAK SHIFTS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AROUND BASE OF MAIN UPPER LOW DIGGING INTO DESERT SOUTHWEST.
WITH STEADY LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WHICH HAS CLEARED THE AREA.
CENTRAL ALABAMA WILL REMAIN NESTLED BETWEEN THE POTENTIAL TROPICAL/SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM OFF THE CAROLINA COAST AND THE LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPING IN THE MOUNTAINS/PLAINS STATES. RIDGING IN BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS WILL KEEP OUR AREA LARGELY FREE FROM RAIN AND SEASONABLY WARM THROUGH AT LEAST THE WEEKEND.
THE N-S ORIENTED COLD FRONT RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SHWRS/TSTMS THIS AFTN-EVE IS CURRENTLY OVER FAR WRN MN AND WILL SLOWLY TREK EWD OVERNIGHT. LOW CLOUDS WILL THEN REMAIN IN THE WAKE OF THE CDFNT WITH HIGH PRES MOVG IN BUT DRIER AIR MOVING IN BY MID-TO-LATE DAY SHOULD SCOUR OUT THE LOW LVL MOISTURE AND ALLOW FOR PARTIAL CLEARING BY LATE DAY. THE HIGH PRES AIRMASS MOVING IN WILL BRING NOTICEABLY COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA ATOP LLVL NW FLOW AND ZONAL FLOW ALOFT.
COURTESY OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. SOME OF THE HIGHER SPOTS. DUE TO A NIGHT TIME INVERSION SHOULD EXPERIENCE LOWS A TOUCH WARMER THAN IN THE VALLEYS. THE FLOW PATTERN OUT OF THE SW BEGINS TO TURN A BIT MORE ACTIVE ON FRI ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY AS THE UPPER RIDGE PATTERN OVER THE NRN GULF BEGINS TO DRIFT EWD. RAIN CHANCES STILL LOOK TO REMAIN PRETTY MUCH NIL OVER THE LOCAL AREA WHERE THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE WILL HAVE A BIT MORE OF AN EFFECT. AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT OUT OF THE SRN PLAINS PUSHES EWD INTO THE LOWER MS/TN VALLEY REGIONS. SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MAY THEN BRIEFLY MOVE INTO THE REGION ON WED.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS THE UPPER RIDGE OVER OHIO AND THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES MOVES ON TO THE EAST COAST. A COLD FRONT OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL MOVE TO NORTHWEST INDIANA BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND STALL JUST NORTH OF OUR AREA OVER THE WEEKEND.
736 PM EDT THU MAY 7 2015 MID/UPPER RIDGE HOLDS IN PLACE WITH WEAK STEERING FLOW.
WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH A MESOHIGH /AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CREATED BY A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS/ WILL RESULT IN AN UNUSUAL WIND PATTERN THIS EVENING.
622 PM CDT THU MAY 7 2015 COLD FRONT AT 19Z WAS LOCATED FROM NORTHWEST IOWA SOUTHWARD THROUGH NORTHEAST KANSAS. FRIDAY APPEARS COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND A NORTHERLY WINS.
GENERALLY WARMER TEMPERATURES OUT THERE LATE THIS EVENING ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS TWO NIGHTS WITH HIGHER LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES. WE'LL BOTTOM OUT GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S FOR MOST LOCATIONS TONIGHT BEFORE OUR FIRST "HOT" DAY OF THE SEASON ON FRIDAY. 58/ROSE /ISSUED 322 PM CDT THU MAY 7 2015/ CENTRAL ALABAMA WILL REMAIN NESTLED BETWEEN THE POTENTIAL TROPICAL/SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM OFF THE CAROLINA COAST AND THE LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPING IN THE MOUNTAINS/PLAINS STATES. RIDGING IN BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS WILL KEEP OUR AREA LARGELY FREE FROM RAIN AND SEASONABLY WARM THROUGH AT LEAST THE WEEKEND.
A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM NEAR FLAG ISLAND TO SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA AS OF 20Z. SHOWERS/STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND WITH THE ADDED LIFT OF THE APPROACHING UPPER WAVE. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER FIFTIES OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA TO 60 TO 65 OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA EARLY THIS WEEKEND WILL PROVIDE THE NORTHLAND WILL COOL AND DRY NORTH TO NE FLOW.
SKIES ARE STILL PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY EAST AS CLOUDS ARE SPINNING AROUND LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SC COAST AND MOSTLY CLEAR WEST.
1238 AM EDT FRI MAY 8 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT WHILE AN UPPER DISTURBANCE CROSSES NORTHERN AREAS.
MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. VERY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO HOURLY TEMPERATURES TO BETTER ALIGN WITH LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS BUT OTHERWISE NO CHANGES ARE NEEDED EARLY THIS EVENING AS RIDGING OVERHEAD KEEPS EVERYTHING WARM AND TRANQUIL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. MOST OF THESE ARE WELL WEST OVER OHIO OR IN THE RIDGES. KEPT THE ISOLATED/SCATTERED POP WORDING OVER THE RIDGES WITH LITTLE CHANGE ELSEWHERE. UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE REST OF THE NEAR TERM. WITH DIURNAL SHOWERS AND STORMS AGAIN POSSIBLE IN THE RIDGES. LARGE SCALE PATTERN LOOKS TO STAY RATHER STAGNANT THROUGH THE PERIOD AS RIDGE REMAINS OVERHEAD.
UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA THIS EVENING. STILL SOME CLOUDS WRAPPING AROUND THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE LOW.
THE TROUGH ALONG WITH LINGERING MOISTURE. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE SWD THROUGH THE STATE TNT WITH COOL LOW TEMPS.
WE SEE A RIDGE IN THE WEST AND A TROF IN THE EAST. SEVERAL SHOTS OF VORTICITY/ENERGY WILL BE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE MEAN LONG WAVE TROF SET UP ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE WESTERN U. THERE WILL ALSO BE A SURFACE REFLECTION OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MEANDER OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SUBJECTIVE 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES UPPER- LEVEL HIGH CENTERED IN UT WITH A MID-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN US. AND UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN US. WITH BROAD RIDGING EXTENDING THROUGH KS/NEB.
1045 PM PDT MON JUN 29 2015 NEW AVIATION DISCUSSION A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEK AS A HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE GREAT BASIN. A COOLING TREND WILL OCCUR FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS A LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES. THE LOW CLOUDS MAY TRY TO DEVELOP AROUND THE L. AN LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTERED OVER UTAH THIS EVENING WILL REMAIN IN THIS AREA THRU TUE THEN DRIFT INTO NEVADA FOR WED AND THU. HIGHS WILL BE VERY WARM INTO THE LOW 100S FOR THE WARMEST VLYS ON TUE. RIDGING SHOULD START TO WEAKEN FOR LATE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OFF BAJA CALIFORNIA DRIFT NORTH INTO THE AREA.
SURFACE CONDITIONS IN MANY LOCATIONS OF THE LOWER DESERTS ARE RUNNING A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY MORNING. OPERATIONAL MODELS CONTINUE TO PLACE THE CENTER OF THE 594-596DM ANTICYCLONE OVER UTAH TODAY. AS THE HIGH REPOSITIONS. A WAVE OR TWO ROTATES AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH. ALBEIT STILL SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THE LOWER DESERTS. AND THE BEST CHANCES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF PHOENIX.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER UTAH AND HAS TAPPED INTO A FETCH OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE. THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN FEATURES A DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE BEEHIVE STATE AND VERY NEAR THE CLASSIC CORNERS MONSOON POSITION.
NO SIGNIFICANT SYNOPTIC FEATURES TO INFLUENCE AREA WEATHER TODAY AS S TX REMAINS IN BETWEEN MID LEVEL RIDGING TO THE NW AND WEAK TROUGHING TO THE S AND NE. LITTLE VARIATION IN MAX/MIN TEMPS FROM PREVIOUS DAY/S VALUES WITH WEDNESDAY LIKELY TO BE A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN TODAY.
A LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AMPLIFIES TUESDAY AND SHIFTS SLIGHTLY EASTWARD. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK BECOMING MORE ZONAL THIS WEEKEND.
WIDE UPPER TROF COVERS MUCH OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY WITH A CLOSED UPPER HIGH OVER UTAH. WHILE AREAS TO THE NORTH HAVE TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 70S AND DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S. IMPULSES ROTATE THROUGH THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROF TODAY AND AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY.
HEDGED A BIT COOLER ON MAXES IN SOUTHEAST KS WHERE POTENTIAL FOR MORE CLOUDS/WETTER SOILS. BUT HEDGED WARMER AT MOST LOCATIONS. -HOWERTON OVERALL THEME IS A SLIGHT BREAKDOWN OF WESTERN RIDGE. TRENDED TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY WARMER ON THOSE DAYS/AREAS WHEN PRECIPITATION APPEARS LESS LIKELY.
3 AM CDT MSAS ANALYSIS SHOWS A THETA-E MAXIMA LOCATED ALONG THE UPPER TEXAS COAST THIS MORNING /WHERE THE HIGHEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PRESENTLY IS/.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THROUGH MID WEEK WITH HIGHS ONLY TOPPING OUT IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.
138 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015 WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THIS EVENING WITH STORMS.
COLD FRONT WAS MOVING THROUGH NE MN AND HEADED FOR NW WI AT 01Z. THE COLD FRONT WAS DRAPED ACROSS THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD LATE THIS AFTERNOON. AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT. RIDGE-TROUGH PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS MODERATES THROUGH THE WEEK WITH THE RIDGE IN THE WEST RETREATING TO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST ALLOWING A NUMBER OF DISTURBANCES TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS/CANADA BORDER AND INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR WILL RESULT IN QUIET SENSIBLE WEATHER.
624 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015 UPPER DISTURBANCE AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL CREATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN TODAY. WITH THE FRONT THEN MEANDERING BACK AND FORTH THROUGHOUT THE WEEK AMID WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE. ALONG WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA.
LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN INDIANA WILL MOVE ON TO THE EAST. HOWEVER AN UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN U. THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MIDNIGHT AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES ITS EASTWARD TRACK ACROSS THE AREA. AND ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOW 60S OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER AN APPROACHING WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE MAY PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHWEST TOWARDS DAYBREAK LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER 60S OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS AND THE MIDDLE 60S FAR SOUTH. MODELS TRACK AN UPPER DISTURBANCE AND A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA TUESDAY.
A MID LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN U. ALONG WITH AXIS OF THE ATLANTIC RIDGE REMAINING SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL KEEP A DEEP LAYER WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA. SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS WL REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WED. SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS SHOWN BY GFS DRIFTING NWD TO A POSITION NR CENTRAL FL BY THU A LIGHTER WIND REGIME WL LEAD TO MORE TYPICAL COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON STORMS. THE AXIS OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS SHOWN DRIFTING NEAR TO JUST NORTH OF THE AREA DURING THE WEEKEND.
A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE ACROSS INLAND PORTIONS OF THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. A SLIGHT COOLING TREND IS THEN EXPECTED FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AS THE HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS AND RETREATS INLAND.
409 AM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015 WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION WILL REMAIN SIMILAR ON TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE STAYS CENTERED OVER WEST-CENTRAL UTAH.
340 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015 UPPER DISTURBANCE AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL CREATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN TODAY. WITH THE FRONT THEN MEANDERING BACK AND FORTH THROUGHOUT THE WEEK AMID WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE. ALONG WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA.
HEALTHY UPPER RIDGING(596+ MB) INITIALLY CENTERED OVER CENTRAL UTAH AT 00Z TUESDAY IS PROJECTED TO SLOWLY SHIFT INTO SOUTHERN UTAH BY 00Z WEDNESDAY ALLOWING ABOVE SEASONAL LAST DAY OF JUNE MINIMUM AND MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TO BE NOTED IN COMBINATION WITH BASICALLY LOW-GRADE GRADIENT WINDS. A BIT MORE ACTIVE END OF THE WEEK THEN DRIER FOR THE JULY 4TH THE STOUT RIDGE TO OUR WEST THE LAST FEW DAYS IS FCST TO BREAK DOWN AS A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVES WILL BE MOVING OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE.
THE GENERAL TROUGHINESS IN THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM GETTING TOO OUT OF HAND HOT. IT LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE CONVECTION WILL END ACROSS THE AREA BY 21Z AS THE SHORT WAVE TROF PULLS OUT.
322 AM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015 UPPER HIGH CENTERED NR SLC PER MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY. UPPER HIGH WILL FLATTEN AND BEGIN SHIFTING WEST THRU THE GREAT BASIN. FORTUNATELY TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 5F COOLER.
-VINCENT AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED IN VICINITY OF THE 4-CORNERS REGION THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT WESTWARD INTO THE GREAT BASIN WED/WED NIGHT. SOME POTENTIAL FOR ISOLD CONVECTION WILL EXIST IN ASSOC/W MESOSCALE FEATURES SUCH AS THE SEABREEZE AND/OR PIEDMONT TROUGH DURING PEAK HEATING. IT IS HARD TO PIN POINT ON THE DAYS THAT WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS FAR OUT.
AN H5 TROF OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER PLAYER THROUGH MID WEEK. AHEAD OF THIS TROF A SOUTHWEST FLOW AND STREAM OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES, EXTENDING FORM THE DEEP SOUTH THROUGH PA WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO OUR AREA. THE H5 TROF MENTIONED ABOVE MOVES THROUGH ALONG WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY.
654 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015 WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA TODAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK WEST OF MAINE WEDNESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE GULF FROM THE EAST WILL PROVIDE A LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.
248 AM PDT TUE JUN 30 2015 HOT TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN THIS WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER THE GREAT BASIN. MOISTURE WILL REMAIN TRAPPED UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE AND WILL ALLOW FOR A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH THE 4TH OF JULY WEEKEND. A SLOWLY EVOLVING PATTERN CONTINUES THIS WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE GREAT BASIN BUILDS WESTWARD.
That being said, a mid level vort upstream is moving down the eastern side of an upper level Ridge across the western states. Several vort lobes will move SE down the eastern side of the western ridge each day.
SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UTAH RIDGE WAS STRONGEST OVER NW CO. THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE REMAINS PARKED OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TO THE GREAT BASIN. TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN REACH INTO THE TRIPLE DIGITS IN THE LOWER DESERT VALLEYS. ALSO OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE ON THE WARM SIDE DUE TO THE HIGHER DEW POINTS. THE RIDGE AGAIN SHIFTS EAST AND MOVES OVER THE FOUR CORNERS DURING THE WEEKEND. BY MON THE HIGH CENTER IS PROGGED TO BE JUST TO OUR EAST. WITH PLENTY HIGHS REACHING 100 DEGREES OR BETTER IN THE LOWER DESERT VALLEYS. NIGHTTIME LOWS MAY BE A LITTLE COOLER MIDWEEK AND BEYOND AS THE AIR MASS DRIES OUT. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE CYCLING AROUND THE NEARLY STATIONARY HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN.
High pressure over the western US is forecast to remain in place this week, so expect the continuation of very warm temperatures.
A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE ACROSS INLAND PORTIONS OF THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. ALL SIGNS CONTINUE TO POINT TO VERY WARM READINGS ACROSS OUR AREA TODAY AND TOMORROW PARTICULARLY FOR INLAND SPOTS DUE TO A BUILDING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. THERMAL TROUGH IS NOT FORECAST TO MIGRATE OFFSHORE SO HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM MID 60S TO MID 70S FOR MOST COASTAL SPOTS UP TO THE 90S AND 100 TO 110 RANGE FOR SPOTS WELL INLAND.
EASTERLY FLOW FROM BENEATH GREAT LAKES RIDGING TO USHER IN DRIER AIR AND MAKE FOR PLEASANT NIGHT.
330 AM PDT TUE JUN 30 2015 A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THROUGHOUT THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE GREAT BASIN. A COOLING TREND IS EXPECTED TOWARD THE WEEKEND AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES. ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE A LARGE UPPER HIGH OVER UTAH WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AND ELONGATE IN NW TO SE FASHION.
WV IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER UT, AND W/A TROUGH OVER THE MS VALLEY, THIS LEAVES TEXAS UNDER A GENERAL AREA OF UPPER-LVL DIVERGENCE, WHICH MAY BE ASSISTING THE MCS. OTHERWISE, THE UPPER RIDGE IS FORECAST TO STAY CENTERED WEST OF THE 4 CORNERS THE REST OF THE WEEK, THEN BEGIN BUILDING EAST OVER THE WEEKEND. UNFORTUNATELY, MODELS KEEP THE LOW-LVL THETA-E RIDGE TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST OF WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO, RESULTING IN THE TYPICAL RING-OF-FIRE SCENARIO FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. AS FOR TEMPS, FORECAST SOUNDINGS, TEMP PROGS, GREEN-UP, AND PAST PERFORMANCE SUGGEST STAYING GENERALLY TO THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE, WHICH WOULD BE JUST BELOW NORMAL.
344 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015 THE GENERAL PATTERN OVER THE SHORT TERM IS DEFINED BY A SERIES OF WEAK WAVES THAT HAVE SUPPRESSED THE WESTERN CONUS RIDGE. PROFILES SUPPORT ONLY ELEVATED CONVECTION HOWEVER AS NORTHEAST FLOW HAS LENT TO A COOLER/DRIER LOW LEVEL AIRMASS. MORE PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AS REMNANTS FROM STRONG AFTERNOON STORMS IN THE HIGH PLAINS PUSH IN AFTER DARK.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN THROUGHOUT THE DAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE LAKE SUPERIOR REGION TONIGHT.
304 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015 WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY BEFORE ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST LATE TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
FOLLOWED BY A WARMING TREND AND DRIER CONDITIONS AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA. WITH PRECIPITATION LARGELY BEYOND OF THE RIDGES SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK.
EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/RAP ANALYSIS SHOWED AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN OF RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD THE COLD FRONT FROM THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL SOUTHWEST ACROSS CENTRAL ARKANSAS AND TO THE RED RIVER. 75 INCHES WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 70S TO FUEL A GREATER COVERAGE OF STORMS TODAY. THE EARLIER START TO CONVECTION MAY HINDER STRONGER DESTABILIZATION ESPECIALLY IN OUR NORTH BUT THE LOWER HEIGHTS AND COOLER TEMPS ALOFT ARE EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 7C/KM AND VERTICAL TOTALS OF 27-28.
HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY RIDGING ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA WITH A TROUGH IN PLACE ALOFT JUST TO THE NW OF THE STATE. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.
WITH EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES AND BITS OF MID/UPR MOISTURE CONTINUING TO ROTATE AROUND THE HIGH. ISOLATED THUNDER OVR THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS TODAY WITH LITTLE OR VERY SLOW MOVEMENT AWAY FROM THE GENESIS AREAS.
/ISSUED 236 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015/ AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE IN THE SHORT TERM.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CLOSE ENUF TO THE FCST AREA TO RESULT IN DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH ABV NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THIS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL RETROGRADE TO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST BEGINNING WEDNESDAY.
LATEST 07Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN ONTARIO INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA.
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL BE HOT AS THE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN OK WHERE 850 MB TEMPS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT COULD REACH 30 C. LOW THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL RETURN WED AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL OK RESPECTIVELY.
440 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015 AMPLIFIED PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE WITH RIDGING ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS AND TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. SHORT WAVES CONTINUE TO ROTATE THROUGH THE BASE OF THE EASTERN TROUGH.
658 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015 WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY BEFORE ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST LATE TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
HEAT CRANKS UP ACROSS THE INTERIOR OF NORCAL THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS WESTWARD BRINGING A HOT AIRMASS AND SUPPRESSING ANY REMAINING COASTAL INFLUENCE INLAND.
223 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015 UPPER DISTURBANCE AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL CREATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN TODAY.
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE ATLANTIC TOWARDS THE FLORIDA KEYS WILL CONTINUE OVER OUR AREA TODAY AND IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT NORTHWARD TOMORROW. GFS AND EUROPEAN MODELS SHOW THAT THIS RIDGE WILL STAY IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.
413 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. HIGHS WILL REACH THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S WITH LOWS TONIGHT DROPPING TO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. LOW CLOUDS HAVE OVERTAKEN MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA COURTESY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS FROM RECENT RAINFALL AS WELL AS INCREASING HUMIDITY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WAVE AND COLD FRONT. THIS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL WAVE THAT IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN SOMEWHAT TODAY WITH A COLD FRONT SWEEPING IN THIS AFTERNOON. SERIES OF SHRTWV'S OVER SWRN CANADA/NE PAC EXPECTED TO TOP WRN RIDGE AND DROP SEWD INTO THE MID MS/LWR OH VALLEY MID-WEEK. REMAINING FAR ENOUGH SOUTH OF OUR CWA FOR DRY WX HERE WED-THU AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVG SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE GRTLKS DOMINATES.