Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
North central South Dakota may top out in the low to mid 60s, which is near average for this time of year while the eastern half of the forecast area will reach the low 70s. Lows tonight will be in the low to mid 50s, while lows Sunday night will be in the 40s. Upper troughing dominates the pattern through the work week.
Deep mixing expected behind the warm front today and MPX/INL/ABR 01. Southern portions of the CWA from Brainerd to Hayward could reach into the low 80s.
Increasing Clouds--Still a Pleasant Weekend: Another gorgeous, albeit breezy day was in progress this afternoon as the pressure gradient gradually tightens on the backside of our departing ridge. High cirrus were already overspreading the forecast area ahead of this low and clouds should continue to thicken through the afternoon and evening.
204 PM EDT Sat May 1 2021 High pressure crosses the area overnight with dry weather through Sunday.
(This evening through Sunday) Upper level low continues drifting northward across Mexico towards the Rio Grande. As the upper low loft northeast this evening, most of the rainfall will eventually shift east with it, finally exiting the eastern counties after midnight. Drier and more sunshine will lead to warmer conditions for Sunday, with highs in the mid 80s to near 90.
With the gusty southwest winds behind the warm front working across the area, coordination was done with fire partners and surrounding offices to highlight the critical fire conditions with a red flag warning. Otherwise, gusty southwest winds will draw in a warmer airmass into the area with highs topping off in the 75-80 degree range across north central WI, and well into the 80s along and south of I-94.
TFJ Flat ridge remains over the northern plains today with upper trof pushing across the west coast and into the Great Basin. Although temperatures will be a little cooler then yesterday, dry conditions will drop relative humidity to near 20 percent. With frontal passage this evening and western upper trof moving over the region, could get a few showers developing by early Sunday morning.
1218 PM CDT Sat May 1 2021 Another nice spring day is in store for the Ozarks today as high pressure moves over the area. The high will begin to slide to the south and east of the area this afternoon which will allow southerly winds to begin picking up with some gusts to 20-25 mph this afternoon. Overnight, an upper level low over the southern plains will begin to lift north and open up. The cloud cover will help to keep temperatures warm however with overnight lows in the lower 60s to upper 50s.
906 AM PDT Sat May 1 2021 A trough moving over the West this weekend will lead to gusty westerly winds over the mountains and deserts, a deepening marine layer with night and morning low clouds and fog, and cooler days.
SR Chattanooga Airport, TN 53 79 64 81 68 / 0 10 80 80 50 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 50 78 62 78 67 / 0 10 70 80 60 Oak Ridge, TN 50 77 61 77 65 / 0 10 70 80 60 Tri Cities Airport, TN 42 77 59 77 62 / 0 10 50 80 50.
1127 AM MDT Sat May 1 2021 Water vapor shows flat ridge over the Northern Rockies/Plains with short wave energy crossing southern SASK. Upper trof is moving onshore the west coast. At the surface, trof is advancing through the eastern Dakotas. Temps will be a bit cooler today with thermal ridge axis east of the area and northwest winds behind the surface trof. Energy from west coast trof may bring a late day shower or storm to northeast WY and the Black Hills. Cold front enters northeastern WY and far western SD early Sunday morning and pushes through our central SD zones by mid afternoon.
208 PM MDT Sat May 1 2021 A flat upper ridge exists over the region this afternoon, leading to mostly sunny skies over the region. A cold front will enter northeastern Wyoming and far western South Dakota early Sunday morning and will move through our central South Dakota zones by mid-afternoon.
137 PM MDT Sat May 1 2021 The leading edge of the trough is moving across the region now, sparking scattered showers. The cold front will be dropping southward overnight tonight, entering north WY around midnight, near the Divide by sunrise, and exiting south into CO by noon. Temperatures will be noticeably cooler tomorrow, with highs struggling into the 50s during the afternoon.
This will result in RH values in the low teens in many areas through sunset, followed by improvement late this evening through the overnight. VFR conditions with light and variable winds will continue through tonight as high pressure gradually shifts east. Garuckas Chattanooga Airport, TN 53 79 63 81 67 / 0 10 80 80 50 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 51 78 62 78 67 / 0 10 70 80 60 Oak Ridge, TN 51 77 62 77 65 / 0 10 70 80 60 Tri Cities Airport, TN 44 77 57 76 61 / 0 10 50 80 50.
1027 PM EDT Sat May 1 2021 Currently - The mid latitude trough off the Atlantic coast has lifted out northeast as a high pressure system pushed off the coast. Temperatures have begun to slip into the 70s with dew point temperatures in the lower to mid 70s. Short Term Update - Residual heating effects over Florida will gradually decay overnight allowing the high pressure system off the Atlantic coast assume synoptic control over the Keys. Expect overnight lows to generally be in the mid to upper 70s, with some interior locations possibly visiting the lower 70s. Day time heating effects over Florida will dissipate overnight and high pressure will assume control of Keys waters.
700 PM CDT Sat May 1 2021 (This evening through Sunday) Upper level low continues drifting northward across Mexico towards the Rio Grande. As the upper low loft northeast this evening, most of the rainfall will eventually shift east with it, finally exiting the eastern counties after midnight. Drier and more sunshine will lead to warmer conditions for Sunday, with highs in the mid 80s to near 90.
607 PM EDT Sat May 1 2021 A warm front developing over northern PA and western NY will meander north and south for a few days, with some occasional light showers streaming east-southeast along it.
A cold front moving through Sunday will bring slightly cooler conditions to the region along with a chance of showers for the higher terrain of southern Nevada and northwest Arizona.
655 PM CDT Sat May 1 2021 Upper low is currently spinning over southern TX near San Antonio. The highest chances of showers and storms will be across the eastern portion of the area.
After a dry night tonight, scattered showers will begin to creep back into the picture Sun as a warm front moves up across the deep south. Showers/storms are expected to become more widespread Sun night as an upper trough approaches and this warm front pushes north of the mid-state. Early Mon, this upper trough passes and clears out a lot of this widespread pcpn. Instability will drop off early Tue morning but here will be another slight jump Tues afternoon, however it does not look likely SVR storms are really in the works then, even as the trailing front and broad upper trough pass later.
Obs show temperatures are slightly warmer than previous forecast update.
Winds are gusting to 35 to 45 mph in the Upper Snake Plain as a cold front approaches. Expect winds to increase gusting around 50 to 55 mph when the cold front moves through around 7 to 8 pm for the Upper Snake Plain. For the lower Snake Plain, Eastern Magic valley, and Southern Highlands the cold front is beginning to move through now. Expect gusts around 40 mph, possibly briefly up to 50 mph as cold front moves through. Winds should start backing off around 8 pm for the lower Snake Plain, Eastern Magic valley and Southern Highlands.
Breezy conditions along with cooler temperatures are expected Sunday with highs dropping into the lower 90s. Temperatures in the lower 90s will continue through the first part of the new week before warming up well above normal for the second half of the week.
Ridging and strengthening SW flow at the sfc will maintain dry weather and push area temperature will above seasonal averages Sunday, with some locations 80 degrees. Expect clouds to increase through the aftn/eve as mid-level moist advection ramps up in advance of an incoming trough.
1056 PM EDT Sat May 1 2021 A warm front developing over northern PA and western NY will meander north and south for a few days, with some occasional light showers streaming east-southeast along it.
Showers in the convergence zone will decrease tonight as a trough moves east of the area. Drier conditions are expected on Sunday with a weak upper ridge.
821 PM EDT Sat May 1 2021 High pressure will remain in control of the region through the weekend along with dry conditions.
Warm front moving through the forecast area will bring back low level moisture this evening, with MVFR ceilings likely by 02/04-05Z. Water vapor appears to show upper trough opening up over west Texas and vigorous convection over south Texas becoming more progressive. Upper trough will lift northeast into the Arklatex through Sunday. A warm humid air mass is expected behind the upper trough with low temperatures over most areas remaining in the 70s.
713 PM EDT Sat May 1 2021 High pressure crosses the area overnight with dry weather through Sunday.
637 PM CDT Sat May 1 2021 (This evening through Sunday) Upper low currently over SW TX/N Mexico will move NE across Texas into western Arkansas into Sunday. Showers and maybe a few storms will be possible, mainly in southern and eastern portions of the fa around the low.
Along with the cloud cover, some showers are beginning to show up on radar across the high terrain as well as northeast Utah and northwest Colorado. Some clearing and drier air will also be evident across southwest Colorado ahead of a cold front set to move through later in the day on Sunday. Temperatures will also be cooler on Sunday, by about 10 or so degrees due to the impending showers and cold front approaching. The cold front may get hung up on the Bookcliffs Sunday afternoon before progressing through late Sunday evening and overnight.
A closed upper low over the southern Texas border will gradually weaken as it moves northeast into the region and reabsorbs into the prevailing upper level flow through the short term period. The area will be in between departing high pressure to the southeast and a frontal zone to the north and northwest overnight, with a decent pressure gradient keeping a breeze going overnight, even as the boundary layer decouples and gusts subside late this evening. Highs tomorrow should be in the upper 70s to perhaps the low 80s in a couple of spots, even though the increasing cloud cover will temper these numbers slightly. Fairly widespread showers will move in Sunday night as the weakening upper low passes through the area.
Very warm to near record temperatures have been observed this afternoon in the wake of this morning's warm front. A cold front will sag southward through the Northland late this afternoon through tonight and stall out across southern Minnesota and central Wisconsin by Sunday morning.
BOTTOM LINE UP FRONT: Mostly sunny and breezy with above normal temperatures continue for Sunday, before a cold front brings a chance of strong storms to central KS on Sunday night. Cutoff upper low is making slow progress along the Rio Grande valley and southern TX as this time. As the afternoon progresses, both the NAM/WRF and GFS are similar in the upper low in nrn Mexico, moving east/northeast into ern TX and central Ark by Sunday. Moisture wrapping around the low will push into OK and portions of SE KS by Sunday for a shower and isolated thunder chance for the daytime hours on Sunday. The frontal boundary will continue push south of the area for most locations on Mon with cooler temperatures expected for Mon afternoon.
457 PM MDT Sat May 1 2021 A flat upper ridge exists over the region this afternoon, leading to mostly sunny skies over the region. A cold front will enter northeastern Wyoming and far western South Dakota early Sunday morning and will move through our central South Dakota zones by mid-afternoon.
Lingering influence of a high pressure system to our east continue the dry weather through tonight. Most of the country is under slight upper-level ridging. A closed upper-level low bringing heavy rain to Texas today will move off to the northeast tomorrow as a trough rapidly deepens in the mountain west. The increased clouds and rain will help keep highs cooler than today, in the lower 70s for Southeast Missouri and mid 70s for areas further northeast with later arrival of rain. Following the departure of Sunday's low pressure system, a cold front develops over the Central Plains, stretching from the Great Lakes to the Four Corners.
615 PM CDT Sat May 1 2021 A closed upper low over the Rio Grande Valley of southwest TX will move northeast close to the MO/AR border by early Sunday evening. Some light rain may hang on in the deformation zone north of the low into the evening hours. Temperatures look to stay cooler with clouds over our eastern counties Sunday afternoon with highs in the upper 60s.
932 PM CDT Sat May 1 2021 Clouds continue to spread into the Mid-South this evening ahead of an upper trof that is currently over Texas. The upper trof will begin to lift northeastward overnight and will move into the Lower Mississippi River Valley on Sunday. Showers ahead of the upper level trof will begin to spread into the Mid-South during the overnight hours. High pressure will shift to the east and an upper low over southern Texas will start to lift northeast early Sunday. Guidance still depicts weakening of the upper trough as it lifts towards the Ohio Valley. However, an upper jet behind the upper low may aid storm development/maintenance by late Sunday afternoon/evening.
429 PM MDT Sat May 1 2021 The leading edge of the trough is moving across the region now, sparking scattered showers. The cold front will be dropping southward overnight tonight, entering north WY around midnight, near the Divide by sunrise, and exiting south into CO by noon. Temperatures will be noticeably cooler tomorrow, with highs struggling into the 50s during the afternoon.
308 PM MST Sat May 1 2021 Breezy conditions along with cooler temperatures are expected Sunday with highs dropping into the lower 90s. Temperatures in the lower 90s will continue through the first part of the new week before warming up well above normal for the second half of the week.
With high pressure centered over the Tennessee Valley, clear skies will continue overnight tonight with light and variable winds. Dry air mass from the back-door cold front this morning should hold off any fog development overnight, and allow for excellent radiational cooling. Overnight lows should fall into the low-to-mid 50s. High pressure doesn't hang around very much longer.
Upper level clouds will continue to stream across the area as an upper low over Texas slowly shifts east northeastward.
High temps around 80F are forecast although cooler along the lake toward Sheboygan. Gehring (Issued 315 PM CDT Sat May 1 2021) Tonight through Sunday night: Southwesterly to southerly wind gusts will continue until the early evening before subsiding as daytime mixing stops tapping into the wind max at 850mb and the pressure gradient slackens as low pressure over Minnesota broadens and high pressure continues southeastward.
Tempeatures will be cooler with clouds and showers around, with highs not getting out of the 50s. Accumulation rate will be limited somewhat during the daytime, but sill expect upwards of 6-12 inches in the highest peaks. Another wave will work into the area for Monday, for a continued chance of showers, with slightly warmer temperatures.
258 AM EDT Sun May 2 2021 Weak high pressure will build into the region today and the first half of tonight with dry, seasonable weather along with variable cloud cover. A warm front will lift north into southern counties later tonight, and across the area Monday into Monday night with increasing chances of showers.
The clouds and showers will keep temperatures several degrees cooler than yesterday, with the coolest areas across southeast Missouri and southern Illinois where precipitation will move in earlier in the day. Continued WAA and an overcast sky will keep overnight temperatures in the low 60s, similar to last night.
Along with the cloud cover, some showers are beginning to show up on radar across the high terrain as well as northeast Utah and northwest Colorado. Some clearing and drier air will also be evident across southwest Colorado ahead of a cold front set to move through later in the day on Sunday. Temperatures will also be cooler on Sunday, by about 10 or so degrees due to the impending showers and cold front approaching. The cold front may get hung up on the Bookcliffs Sunday afternoon before progressing through late Sunday evening and overnight. The trough axis will move overhead Monday morning and afternoon with some cold air advection behind it. H7 temps only lower to about -2C with -4C along the highest peaks along the divide.
Low level moisture will return ahead of this low and the convergence ahead of this low may be sufficient enough to produce a few thunderstorms, mainly in the Oklahoma Panhandle late this afternoon and evening. A cold front moves south across the Panhandles tonight. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to make a return to the region Monday and Monday night as a couple of short wave troughs embedded in the larger trough move over our area. By Monday evening the trough axis will be oriented along the Rocky Mountains.
330 AM EDT Sun May 2 2021 High pressure over the region will provide for dry conditions today. A low pressure system over east Texas will approach the region on Monday with increasing moisture and the opportunity for showers and a few thunderstorms. High pressure centered over the Carolinas will slide off the southeast coast today. Return flow around the high will result in a warming southwest wind. An area of low pressure over east Texas will move northeast into the Tennessee and Lower Ohio Valleys by tonight. a warm front extending east from the low into the southern Appalachians.
A cold front moving through today will bring slightly cooler conditions to the region along with a chance of showers for the higher terrain of southern Nevada and northwest Arizona.
326 AM CDT Sun May 2 2021 H5 analysis from earlier this evening had a closed low over central Texas. At the surface, an area of low pressure was located northwest of Broken Bow Nebraska. A cold front extended from far northeastern Colorado into northeastern Nebraska and southeastern South Dakota. For today: The surface cold front will slowly track south across the southern half of the forecast area today, ending up roughly over Chase, Hayes and Frontier counties at 21z this afternoon. There will be a lingering threat for showers late tonight into Monday morning as the forecast area remains east of the H5 trough axis.
1049 PM CDT Sat May 1 2021 (This evening through Sunday) Upper low currently over SW TX/N Mexico will move NE across Texas into western Arkansas into Sunday. Showers and maybe a few storms will be possible, mainly in southern and eastern portions of the fa around the low.
345 AM CDT Sun May 2 2021 WV imagery shows West Texas and Southeast new Mexico in clear air mode on the backside of the trough, which is approaching the ArklaTex. Upstream, the next trough is digging out of the PacNW, and will dig to the Four Corners by around 12Z Monday, transitioning flow aloft from NW to SW. These winds will add a downslope warming component to afternoon temperatures, which should plateau in a respectable 90s or better for all but the higher elevations. The PacNW trough will move through the region Monday, driving a Pac front through the region and taking afternoon highs closer to normal.
Short term models are consistent with the closed upper low currently across northern Texas opening to a negatively tilted trough with its axis across eastern Oklahoma through northeast Texas by this afternoon. Overnight, another trough upflow from us will start digging into the U.
332 AM EDT Sun May 2 2021 Dry weather will continue through the day with high pressure over the region. Highs will be in the low to mid 80s. The axis of the upper ridge will shift offshore this evening as an upper trough pushes east. With increased cloud cover and moisture, lows tonight should be in the low to mid 60s. Still not incredibly excited about rain chances with rising 500mb heights as the ridge strengthens over the area. May generate some showers with some weak isentropic lift along a surface boundary or get some weaknesses in the ridge but ensembles continue to support a low QPF day with SREF mean around.
340 AM EDT Sun May 2 2021 High pressure will result in dry and warm conditions today. An upper level low pressure system lifting northeast across the Ohio Valley will bring showers and a chance of thunderstorms to the region Sunday night and Monday.
1144 PM CDT Sat May 1 2021 A closed upper low over the Rio Grande Valley of southwest TX will move northeast close to the MO/AR border by early Sunday evening. Some light rain may hang on in the deformation zone north of the low into the evening hours. Temperatures look to stay cooler with clouds over our eastern counties Sunday afternoon with highs in the upper 60s. Monday/Monday night: A sfc cold front will move east into the region and become quasi-stationary from central IL to eastern OK by midday-afternoon. We should see a brief break in the precip late in the day Monday with with an upper level ridge briefly building in ahead of another approaching system moving into the southern Plains.
Otherwise, gusty northerly winds with areas of rain/mountain snow showers will spread south over north central and central Montana behind a Canadian cold front through 12Z, bringing mountain obscuration and periods of MVFR/IFR conditions. A cold front passes through the area.
A broad area of low pressure working its way into southern MN this morning will continue to creep eastward, bringing a major change from yesterdays hot and dry weather. Much of northern MN is expected to remain in a much drier air mass today and minimum RHs will drop to 20-30% across much of the Iron Range and Arrowhead, with the lowest values in Koochiching and Itasca counties. An upper level trough rotating over the upper Midwest will keep chances of precipitation in the forecast through Monday night.
1251 AM CDT Sun May 2 2021 (This evening through Sunday) Upper level low continues drifting northward across Mexico towards the Rio Grande. As the upper low loft northeast this evening, most of the rainfall will eventually shift east with it, finally exiting the eastern counties after midnight. Drier and more sunshine will lead to warmer conditions for Sunday, with highs in the mid 80s to near 90.
This low is project to lift out to the northeast. Warm front moving through the forecast area will bring back low level moisture this evening, with MVFR ceilings likely by 02/04-05Z. Water vapor appears to show upper trough opening up over west Texas and vigorous convection over south Texas becoming more progressive. Upper trough will lift northeast into the Arklatex through Sunday. A warm humid air mass is expected behind the upper trough with low temperatures over most areas remaining in the 70s.
A frontal boundary to the south will move northward later today as a warm front. Frontal boundary stalled over south FL today will lift north across central FL as a warm front Tonight, then north across forecast area Sunday.
(Today and tonight) The upper low is currently moving northeast across central Texas. A band of wrap around showers has affected our eastern counties into the overnight hours, but these will exit the area prior to 6 AM as the low continues to move northeast. The low will open into a trough today, with the trough lifting northeast to the Mississippi Valley late this afternoon. With the departure of this system, drier and *much* warmer conditions are in store for our area today. Highs this afternoon are expected to range from the mid 80s in our eastern counties, to the lower 90s across some of the Concho Valley and Northern Edwards Plateau. With a significant change in airmasses, the 850mb temperatures will be 10-15 deg C warmer across our area today.