Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
121 AM EDT Fri May 21 2021 Warm and dry conditions will persist through the weekend with lows in the low to mid 60s and highs in the mid 80s to near 90 degrees. An impressive 590 dam mid level ridge, centered over Ohio and the TN Valley, will continue to dominate into tonight and Friday with warm and dry conditions persisting. The weekend will likely feature more of the same (warm/dry) as the NAM/GFS continue to appear too aggressive in breaking down the ridge and dropping a strung out mid level PV southeast from the Upper Midwest. Retained a dry/warmer forecast as a result on Saturday with potential cloud debris the key to how warm it gets in the north.
Feeling a bit like summer today as temperatures are reaching into the lower 80s across much of the area. And temperatures will only get warmer from here over the next several days. Friday will then be similar to today with temperatures just expected to be a couple of degrees warmer in the mid to upper 80s.
East coast ridging will very slowly expand westward in the coming days. This will nudge a weak inverted sfc trof into the upper Tx coastal waters Fri.
Moist southerly flow aloft continues across the region with cold northerly flow in the low levels.
909 PM PDT Thu May 20 2021 An area of low pressure remains near the region the rest of the week and through the weekend. A closed low over Nevada will continue to promote a north- northeast pressure gradient over the region with drier air gradually moving into NE Washington and the N Idaho Panhandle with dewpoints in the upper 20s and 30s.
High pressure continues over the eastern seaboard and stretches west to cover most of the eastern third of the country. Temperatures at 930 pm ranged from the lower 70s to lower 80s, with dewpoints in the middle 50s to lower 60s and light southeasterly winds. The going forecast is on track for partly cloudy skies through the overnight and lows in the low to middle 60s. A ridge of high pressure is expected to remain in place through the rest of the short term period and into the weekend. Temperatures aloft look to be a little warmer than today which should allow for a few spots to either near or reach 90 degrees for the first time this year.
Earlier today, high temperatures rose mostly into the low/mid 80s (with a few upper 70s in the higher elevations). Will see the upper 80s on Friday as the upper high axis slowly begins to shift over the southeastern US. This high will become centered over the Tennessee Valley over the weekend, making for some of the warmest temperatures we have seen all year.
356 AM EDT Fri May 21 2021 A large mid/upper-level ridge remains over the eastern U.
Saturday will see another day of wide ranging temps with 50s in the the Devils Lake basin with clouds persisting to near 90 in west central MN ahead of the cold front.
Today and Tonight A plume of Gulf moisture will continue to advect northward into the region today, channeled between a deep upper trough over the Western U. High temps should range from the mid 70s to near 80 F, slightly cooler than yesterday due to more extensive cloud cover. As convergence associated with the low-level jet lifts off to our north and the light rain dissipates, the atmosphere will become conditionally unstable heading into the afternoon.
318 AM EDT Fri May 21 2021 Warm and mostly dry conditions will persist through the weekend with lows in the low to mid 60s and highs in the mid 80s to near 90 degrees.
Next 12-15 hours: Have made a few fairly "low impact" but noticeable tweaks versus the previous forecast through Friday morning: 1) Given that we are expecting a very similar situation Friday morning as what occurred this morning with widespread low stratus clouds blossoming across the area, have beefed up late night/morning cloud cover and also added a generic mention of non-measurable "patchy drizzle" to the entire CWA focused between 4-10 AM, as the depth of the low cloud layer could be just enough to support it. Amplifying upper air pattern developing with trough in the west and ridge in the east.
Look for lows in the low to mid 60s tonight, and temperatures on Friday warming a few degrees into the mid and upper 80s.
A strong high pressure system continues centered near the eastern coast of the United States. Meanwhile, a disturbance in the western Gulf of Mexico, that the National Hurricane Center is monitoring for possible tropical development, is part of a large, deep trough that extends across much of the central United States.
A low pressure system will bring strong southwest winds into Saturday.
The upper level pattern remains fairly unchanged with a blocking ridge over the eastern CONUS. A meridional Pacific trough has deepened over the Pacific northwest. Freezing levels are above 12kft across the area and instability is limited so a more gradual but continued upward motion is helping to enhance some areas of moderate to heavy rain. The high over the eastern CONUS expands south. As the Western CONUS trough digs south, overall southern flow is maintained.
with an upper ridge to the east. and a weak upper trough to the west. the upper ridge to the east will expand further west over the state.
As the upper ridge and atmospheric river shift westward, low to moderate rain chances will expand into central and parts of western Oklahoma as well as western north Texas Friday night.
High pressure will maintain dry conditions and above normal temperature today. By Saturday, the ridge axis will be centered across the TN and OH Valleys, placing the Pittsburgh forecast area in WNW/NW flow on the northeast periphery of the ridge. Models continue to show a weak trough falling out of the Upper Midwest towards the Upper Ohio Valley late Saturday. Though not overly impressive, moisture will be on the increase since strong poleward flow on the west side of the ridge allowed for vast moisture transport all the way into southern Ontario, characterized by dew points in the 60s. This area of higher moisture will move southward to the Pittsburgh area Saturday night in tandem with the aforementioned trough.
312 AM EDT Fri May 21 2021 High pressure continues to aid in summer-like temperatures today. Showers and a few storms possible across the north as the high shifts west this weekend. Both sfc and H5 high pressure/ridge centers are prog to drift/meander across the region today. High pressure anchored over the area will compress slightly overnight Saturday in response to a weak disturbance rounding the northern periphery of the upper ridge axis.
145 AM EDT Fri May 21 2021 High pressure will strengthen over the Carolinas and southern Appalachians through Saturday. The center of the mid-level ridge will slowly shift west over the OH and TN Valleys on Friday and Friday night, resulting in high confidence of another dry day for central NC. At the surface, high pressure will drift southwestward along the Mid-Atlantic coast. NE flow around this high pressure will advect lower thicknesses into the area, resulting in slightly cooler temperatures on Friday compared to today, in the lower-to-mid-80s (lowest NE, highest SW). This high pressure will move overhead on Friday night, resulting in good radiational cooling conditions with lows in the 50s.
141 AM CDT Fri May 21 2021 Mid level heights will continue to rise with a strong ridge over the Ohio Valley down across the southeast U. Went with slightly warmer ECS MOS numbers for today, to maintain persistence.
354 AM EDT Fri May 21 2021 Summer-like conditions continue today as amplified ridging reaches maximum strength over over the eastern Great Lakes and Ohio Valley within an omega block pattern. A ribbon of higher PV streams along the western periphery of the ridge and brings showers and storms over WI, MN, and the UP today, but stable and dry conditions will persist locally with just some high clouds streaming in from the west. Potential is there for additional showers and perhaps a few non-severe storms to trigger during the afternoon, but with the deep cutoff low still spinning over the western CONUS, higher midlevel heights will be quick to build back in and ridging will then stabilize the column by Saturday evening.
352 AM EDT Fri May 21 2021 Expansive surface ridging originating from the Mid-Atlantic states continues to be the primary influence for South Florida's weather, allowing for mostly dry conditions to be maintained across the region. The continuation of modest east/northeast flow will keep surface temperatures seasonably cool through Saturday, with maximum temperatures in the low/mid 80s across the east coast metro and mid/upper 80s expected elsewhere.
The long wave pattern remains entrenched with ridging over the eastern CONUS and a trough over the western CONUS. Another short wave trough comes up from the south Saturday and will probably reinvigorate cloud coverage and light shower activity especially over the southeast part of the forecast area.
A massive ridge over the eastern US will continue to be the main influencer for our weather into the upcoming weekend. The active weather will continue to remain on the western fringes of the ridge across the Mississippi river valley and westward. Lows tonight should fall back into the 50s in the valleys again with ridges staying a bit milder. In the upper levels, we begin Saturday night in the middle of a blocky pattern and under the influence of a strong ridge across the entirety of the Ohio Valley and into the Southeast.
Upper pattern continues to feature the blocking high encompassing the eastern half of the CONUS, with a trough still deepening over the western half. This looks to remain the case throughout the day as the high expands and the low stays in place. Dry weather is then expected for the evening and most of the overnight before another surge of moisture pushes north along with a weak wave rounding the outside edge of the ridge.
/issued 444 AM CDT Fri May 21 2021/ SHORT TERM (Today through Saturday): Closed 500 mb low pressure over the western Gulf of Mexico will gradually retrograde during the period and become centered over Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley. Precipitation generally over portions the lower Texas coastal waters today and tonight will spread west to encompass the entire BRO CWFA for Saturday.
618 AM EDT Fri May 21 2021 Warm and mostly dry conditions will persist through the weekend with lows in the low to mid 60s and highs in the mid 80s to near 90 degrees.
High pressure over the Mid-Atlantic is still dominating the region, and is yielding easterly and northeasterly surface flow. Towards the end of the near term, the high will be centered over Appalachia allowing for more northerly winds. With the high pressure center now out of the area, winds will be more variable overnight. Anomalously strong upper level ridge slowly retrograding toward the Mississippi Valley during the period.
654 AM EDT Fri May 21 2021 High pressure will maintain VFR conditions with just varying degrees of cirrus this forecast period. Summer-like conditions continue today as amplified ridging reaches maximum strength over over the eastern Great Lakes and Ohio Valley within an omega block pattern. A ribbon of higher PV streams along the western periphery of the ridge and brings showers and storms over WI, MN, and the UP today, but stable and dry conditions will persist locally with just some high clouds streaming in from the west. Potential is there for additional showers and perhaps a few non-severe storms to trigger during the afternoon, but with the deep cutoff low still spinning over the western CONUS, higher midlevel heights will be quick to build back in and ridging will then stabilize the column by Saturday evening.
A strong upper ridge across the Tennessee valley and southern Appalachians will persist producing unseasonably warm conditions with high temperatures some 5 to possibly 10 degrees above normal. Ridging producing sinking motion across the region and capping inversion and dry airmass will keep conditions dry.
An unseasonably cold upper level low will remain over the region today. Thunderstorm activity seems most probable over southeastern Trinity, eastern Mendocino and Lake counties due to the NE flow aloft around the backside of the low.
High pressure building into the area from the east will bring an end to any rain in the east and central sections tonight. with an upper ridge to the east. and a weak upper trough to the west. the upper ridge to the east will expand further west over the state.
243 AM PDT Fri May 21 2021 Weather system centered over Nevada will continue to bring cooler temperatures, foothill and mountain showers along with a few afternoon thunderstorms through Saturday. The higher elevations will see some late season snowfall accumulations.
254 AM PDT Fri May 21 2021 An area of low pressure will continue to impact the region through the weekend. The Northern direction will help funnel the winds down the Purcell Trench and Okanogan Valley with gusts into the low 20s MPH. Winds again will be breezy across the BAsin with gusts into the low 20s MPH. Overnight lows will be few degrees cooler.
A well-formed low pressure circulation over northern California and western Nevada is drawing a nice plume of moisture up from the Pacific Ocean this morning. This setup will keep precipitation going this morning, mostly in the form of snow along the Continental Divide, southwest Montana, and the higher terrain of the Bitterroot, Mission, Swan, and Sapphire ranges.
(Today and tonight) Quiet weather will persist across the area again today, as we remain situated between an upper level trough to our west and upper level high pressure east of the area.
459 AM PDT Fri May 21 2021 An area of low pressure will continue to impact the region through the weekend. The Northern direction will help funnel the winds down the Purcell Trench and Okanogan Valley with gusts into the low 20s MPH. Winds again will be breezy across the BAsin with gusts into the low 20s MPH. Overnight lows will be few degrees cooler.
After the low stratus that is now encompassing the majority of the local area dissipates by mid to late morning. With a large upper level low circulating across the intermountain west. expect an upper level disturbance circulating around this low to glance the western/northwestern portions of the local area Saturday night.
Summer-like weather continues through the weekend as high pressure over the eastern US dominates the short term forecast.
638 AM CDT Fri May 21 2021 A blocking pattern continues to dominate the weather pattern across the CONUS with a deep upper level low located across the west and a persistent ridge across the east. The center of the western CONUS upper low will inch eastward across Nevada today with surface cyclogenesis occurring ahead of the system across portions of eastern Colorado. Daytime heating combined with steep mid-level lapse rates will yield around 2000+ J/KG surface based CAPE near the inverted trough, and as a nose of steeper low-level 0-3km lapse rates develop northward from Colorado during the afternoon, thunderstorm initiation is expected. A couple of supercells are expected, but with the south-southwest flow paralleling the inverted trough, there may be a tendency for storms to become more linear near the trough as they track to the north-northeast.
343 AM MDT Fri May 21 2021 The low pressure system that has brought unsettled weather over the region is sitting over southwestern North Dakota this morning. Lows for many locations will be near freezing, so areas proned to being cooler, such as higher terrain and bridges could be a little slippery. The threat for severe is low today compared to yesterday as the low pressure system continues to slip east across North Dakota.
Will see some diurnal cumulus today, likely most noticeable over the higher terrain. A massive ridge over the eastern US will continue to be the main influencer for our weather into the upcoming weekend. The active weather will continue to remain on the western fringes of the ridge across the Mississippi river valley and westward. Lows tonight should fall back into the 50s in the valleys again with ridges staying a bit milder. In the upper levels, we begin Saturday night in the middle of a blocky pattern and under the influence of a strong ridge across the entirety of the Ohio Valley and into the Southeast.
Mid and upper level ridging cover the area tonight with high pressure at the surface. On Saturday, the ridging flattens a bit over northeast Minnesota as an area of low pressure moves along the international border area. Meanwhile, ridging is becoming established again and will block the fronts further advancement.
Across the island chain, temperatures are in the lower 80s with dewpoints in the 60s. From synopsis, a sprawling high pressure system located near the Eastern Seaboard will dominate the sensible weather elements across the coastal waters of the Florida Keys for the next several days.
638 AM CDT Fri May 21 2021 (Today and tonight) Quiet weather will persist across the area again today, as we remain situated between an upper level trough to our west and upper level high pressure east of the area.
The upper level pattern features a ridge that extends from the northeastern Gulf of Mexico northwards into the eastern Great Lakes with closed lows on either side. One of these closed lows is out over the western Atlantic with another across the western CONUS. This ridge extends across the Tennessee Valley and will continue to keep conditions dry throughout much of the forecast period with dry air and subsidence. The center of the upper level ridge will retrograde some and will be located directly over the Tennessee Valley over the weekend.
Lesser cloud cover and rain chances should lead to warmer high temperatures, particularly to the northwest of the KS Turnpike.
410 AM CDT Fri May 21 2021 A blocking pattern continues to dominate the weather pattern across the CONUS with a deep upper level low located across the west and a persistent ridge across the east. The center of the western CONUS upper low will inch eastward across Nevada today with surface cyclogenesis occurring ahead of the system across portions of eastern Colorado. Daytime heating combined with steep mid-level lapse rates will yield around 2000+ J/KG surface based CAPE near the inverted trough, and as a nose of steeper low-level 0-3km lapse rates develop northward from Colorado during the afternoon, thunderstorm initiation is expected. A couple of supercells are expected, but with the south-southwest flow paralleling the inverted trough, there may be a tendency for storms to become more linear near the trough as they track to the north-northeast.
This will keep southeasterly flow in place for us today, resulting in warmer but fortunately drier air. The center of the upper level ridge will retrograde some and will be located directly over the Tennessee Valley over the weekend.
A large low pressure system will circulate over our region today and Saturday bringing considerably cooler temperatures with scattered showers across the southern Sierra and south central Nevada with light snow accumulations possible above 6000 feet.
642 AM EDT Fri May 21 2021 High pressure will strengthen over the Carolinas and southern Appalachians through Saturday. High pressure aloft centered will strengthen over the Appalachians while slowly drifting westward through tonight. With the minimal cloud cover, lack of moisture and high pressure in place highs will be near to slightly above normal, in the low to mid 80s. Lows in the low to mid 50s will persist.
528 AM MDT Fri May 21 2021 08z surface analysis had cold front from western ND to low over southeast WY. Water vapour had upper low spinning over central CA and this will be the main weather maker for the weekend. Today/tonight, upper low moves into northern NV as southwest flow strengthens ahead of it over the northern plains. Generally around 1KJ/kg MLCAPE available with rather strong MLCIN, except perhaps right on the cold front, especially if stratus doesn't make it all the way into south central SD. Saturday, upper low moves little as cold front slides east of the CWA.
A low pressure system will continue periods of snow, possibly with some rain, across much of the region today, especially early this morning and again later this afternoon through this evening.
Warm afternoon, with near to below normal highs in the low to mid 80s.
With a fairly large high pressure system building over the area, the only thing that will impact Central Alabama over the next 36 hours will be the warming temperatures.
A blocking pattern containing a large upper level high pressure system was anchored over the Ohio River Valley, while large scale troughing was in place over the Mountain West. High temperatures today should range from the lower 70s to the upper 70s.
Little change was needed to the forecast for today, as only high clouds are expected underneath the impressive upper level ridge. By Saturday, the ridge axis will be centered across the TN and OH Valleys, placing the Pittsburgh forecast area in WNW/NW flow on the northeast periphery of the ridge. Models continue to show a weak trough falling out of the Upper Midwest towards the Upper Ohio Valley late Saturday. Though not overly impressive, moisture will be on the increase since strong poleward flow on the west side of the ridge allowed for vast moisture transport all the way into southern Ontario, characterized by dew points in the 60s. This area of higher moisture will move southward to the Pittsburgh area Saturday night in tandem with the aforementioned trough.
The upper high is starting to move our way now and we should easily tack on another degree or two to our highs today. On Saturday afternoon the upper high will reside directly over the mid state.
SHORT TERM (Today through Saturday): Closed 500 mb low pressure over the western Gulf of Mexico will gradually retrograde during the period and become centered over Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley. Precipitation generally over portions the lower Texas coastal waters today and tonight will spread west to encompass the entire BRO CWFA for Saturday.
This wave is expected to ride up the western periphery of the upper ridging, working through nrn Michigan tonight. High temperatures today will largely be in the mid and upper 70s in eastern upper Michigan, and in the mid to upper 80s across much of nrn lower Michigan, cooler in coastal areas of NW lower. The short wave that puts a dent in the upper level ridge tonight (Friday night) will continue to exit to the southeast Saturday.
High pressure at the surface and aloft covers much of the eastern U.
/issued 356 AM EDT Fri May 21 2021/ A large mid/upper-level ridge remains over the eastern U.
Another dry and quiet night is pictured, as the sharp upper ridge axis remains in place. The few cumulus in the area will collapse with sunset, and only patches of upper cloud are expected overnight, which will do little to impact temperature, which will remain well above normal as they bottom out mostly in the lower 60s. This will help to shift the ridge axis westward, across the lower Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. Plenty of Gulf moisture has been transported north recently on the back side of the stubborn ridge, with PWATs of nearly 1.
Upper level ridging continues to dominate across the region this morning with the center shifted slightly west allowing for high cirrus advection from the north. Ridging surface and aloft will continue. Chattanooga Airport, TN 88 62 89 64 92 / 0 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 86 60 87 63 88 / 0 0 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 86 60 87 62 89 / 0 0 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 86 54 85 60 86 / 0 0 0 0 10.
232 PM EDT Fri May 21 2021 High pressure will support another day of summer-like temperatures.
Airmass in warm sector thru SE/EC ND into MN is quite warm and humid with man sites in the 80s and dew pts in the low-mid 60s. Risk of a strong storm or two at that time, but upper ridge in place and lack of wind shear should prevent organized supercells from developing.
236 PM CDT Fri May 21 2021 A huge dome of high pressure aloft centered over the lower and mid MS River Valley will bring a continuation of high and dry conditions with above normal temperatures right through the weekend.