Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
545 AM EST Thu Feb 15 2018 A warm front will keep light rain chances through this morning before low pressure and a cold front results in widespread rain later today and tonight. A sfc warm front across OH through PA continues to move N ahead of its parent approaching low pressure. Several river flood watches also continue for the Monongahela and Ohio rivers where the highest QPF is progged. The low is progged to slide E to N Cntrl PA late tonight, as it drags its associated cold front across the area. The cold front should complete its passage Friday, with precip chances tapering off after FROPA.
Gilchrist Previous discussion: Upper trof swinging through the state today will be pulling a Canadian high pressure into the northern plains. Still some light snow and north winds across the region following the cold front passage yesterday. Temperatures expected to continue to fall through today as the high pressure moves into the region.
Upper air map analysis this morning starts off with a long-wave trof axis positioned over the Sierra Nevada Range with a down stream ridge axis over the Gulf. The upper ridge amplifies north and east up across the southeast today. At the surface, high pressure is progged to be aligned from the Bahamas, westward into the Gulf. With the upper ridge in place, larger scale subsidence acts to suppress rain chances with rain probabilities at 10% or less.
For the sake of comparison, normal climatological high temperatures this time of year are in the lower 60s. Ridging aloft will limit shower development today, with temperatures expected to remain well abv normal. Record highs at our official climate sites for today are in the lower 80s, and temperatures could approach these values at least at Alexandria (record max 81) and possibly Beaumont and New Iberia (record max 82).
411 AM MST Thu Feb 15 2018 Snow has diminished outside of the higher mtns this morning and webcams/obs showing little snow falling now. Snow will continue to fall over the higher mtns today as moist winds are lifted up the facing slopes. Otherwise a cold front will drop south across the CWA with temperatures falling behind it later this morning and afternoon.
A cold front will drop southeast across central Indiana Thursday night.
MSAS analysis showed a cold front approaching Duluth, but southwest winds ahead of it were holding temperatures in the upper 20s and 30s across northeast WI. High pressure will bring a sunny and cold day on Friday, with highs in the teens and lower 20s.
For much of today, the focus of precipitation will be ahead of the upper level trough that is currently over eastern Nevada. The base of the trough will move over the Continental Divide during the evening hours and cause a shift to more northwesterly flow. However, without the lift provided by the trough, precipitation will become more isolated to scattered in nature and more showery.
An anomalous 500mb subtropical ridge will be prevalent through the forecast period, leading to temperatures and dewpoints well above normal for this time of year. For today, the ridge will be centered over the Gulf of Mexico with 500mb heights up to 588dm in our forecast area. However, a cold front moving in from the north will provide a focus for showers Friday afternoon and evening.
1059 AM EST Thu Feb 15 2018 Hydro Fog and drizzle will persist this morning then rain showers will move through this afternoon as low pressure tracks south of Michigan. A cold front comes through tonight with rain showers changing to snow showers. Not expecting much accums as inversion heights are around 5 kft then crash as sfc ridging builds in Friday afternoon.
Ceilings and visibilities will likely lower a bit once again tonight before a cold front arrives around midday tomorrow. Upper air analysis last evening showed a broad ridge extending over the southern part of the country. At the surface, high pressure was centered over the Gulf and winds across our CWA were from the southwest to southeast. Temperatures and dew point temperatures were generally 10 to 15 degrees warmer than 24 hours ago. The upper level ridge will slowly retreat to the southeast during this period. The low level flow will continue from the south to southeast with enough isentropic lift to produce patchy drizzle today. A cold front will move through our CWA from the north bringing a slight chance for showers during the day Friday.
Temperatures are currently in the low to mid 60Fs, which is around 10F above our average high temperature for this day. Convective-allowing models and some parameterized models do indicate some light rain is possible as the cold front passes by the area this evening/tonight. Even so, high temperatures on Friday are expected to only be in the low 40Fs to near 50F (which is slightly cooler than average).
552 AM CST Thu Feb 15 2018 Strong troughing across the western United States early this morning with an increasing upper level jet from the southern into the central Plains. Went ahead and increased pops and qpf for this event with the highest amounts near highway 14.
408 AM MST Thu Feb 15 2018 Snow has diminished outside of the higher mtns this morning and webcams/obs showing little snow falling now. Snow will continue to fall over the higher mtns today as moist winds are lifted up the facing slopes. Otherwise a cold front will drop south across the CWA with temperatures falling behind it later this morning and afternoon.
By this afternoon further warming and drying will occur, with highs in the lower 70s along the coast to lower 80s across the Brush Country. Upper level ridging will persist overhead today, but begin shifting east on Friday as an upper level trough moves into the Central Plains. In turn, a cold front will move south through the state on Friday, and be knocking on our northern boundary at the end of the period.
This combined with a mid level high over the northern Gulf will contribute to a warmer than normal day with above normal relative humidity. This has helped temperatures climb up into the lower 70s already across much of our area. Warm air just above the boundary layer should put a lid on any convective potential today, but the approaching cold front may produce a few showers in the far north toward dawn Friday. Speaking of the cold front, the pressure gradient over the Delta region will tighten considerably as the front draws near today.
Gusty southwest winds will be common at all the sites today ahead of cold front tonight. Strong cold front enters NE OK by late afternoon and clears the forecast area around sunrise Friday. There is a brief window where temps may fall below freezing across NW AR late tonight to allow light freezing rain however this potential appears very low at this point. Temps will also hover around freezing across northern areas as the precip expands providing another brief window for light freezing rain from NE OK into far NW AR.
High temperatures today will range from the lower to middle 40s north of the low track around Galesburg and Lacon. As the low tracks into the southern Great Lakes, it will drag a cold front through the area tonight. courtesy of high pressure building into the Midwest.
237 AM PST Thu Feb 15 2018 A weak low pressure system will move out this morning and offshore flow will develop today.
351 AM MST Thu Feb 15 2018 Upper trof swinging through the state today will be pulling a Canadian high pressure into the northern plains. Still some light snow and north winds across the region following the cold front passage yesterday. Temperatures expected to continue to fall through today as the high pressure moves into the region.
A cold front will advance through the Panhandles this evening shifting winds to the north at 15-25 knots gusting around 25-35 knots through the end of the period. /Issued 521 AM CST Thu Feb 15 2018/ Above normal temperatures are once again in the forecast for today in advance of a cold front. The above mentioned cold front will approach the OK Panhandle late this afternoon and sweep southward across the Texas Panhandle this evening and tonight with gusty north winds in its wake for several hours.
522 AM EST Thu Feb 15 2018 A warm front will keep light rain chances through this morning before low pressure and a cold front results in widespread rain later today and tonight. A sfc warm front across OH through PA should continue to move N ahead of its parent approaching low pressure. Several river flood watches also continue for the Monongahela and Ohio rivers where the highest QPF is progged. The low is progged to slide E to N Cntrl PA late tonight, as it drags its associated cold front across the area. The cold front should complete its passage Friday, with precip chances tapering off after FROPA.
A warmer day on tap as skies become mostly to partly sunny with subsidence and southerly flow enabling warm temperatures. High temperatures right around 80 degrees are expected, though sea breeze development will keep coastal locations cooler.
Meanwhile, a cold front will drop south into the area late tonight, reaching KABI (Abilene) by right around 12Z and bringing gusty north winds. /issued 411 AM CST Thu Feb 15 2018/ (Today and Tonight) A warm morning ongoing with temperatures still holding in the lower 60s across much of the area. Temperatures should be a few degrees warmer than yesterday, mainly in the low to mid 80s. Mild again for much of the night, although the cold front we have talked about for several days will begin crashing through West Central Texas by sunrise, likely reaching the I-20 corridor from Sweetwater to Abilene.
A series of mid and upper-level waves in the northern stream will sharpen and drive a cold front into the Ohio Valley late tonight. Tonight the cold front will drop into southern Indiana, ramping up the coverage and especially the intensity of precip. West Coast trof and East Coast ridge will be the stars of the show.
837 AM EST Thu Feb 15 2018 A warm front will keep light rain chances through this morning before low pressure and a cold front results in widespread rain later today and tonight. Warm front continues to make progress northward, with rapid warmth over much of the region with highs approaching 60 already. Several river flood watches also continue for the Monongahela and Ohio rivers where the highest QPF is progged. The low is progged to slide E to N Cntrl PA late tonight, as it drags its associated cold front across the area. The cold front should complete its passage Friday, with precip chances tapering off after FROPA.
Falling temperatures are expected through the day as cold high pressure builds across western and central North Dakota. Currently, an upper level longwave trough extended from the Hudson Bay Low southwestward across the Canadian prairies to the Desert Southwest. Widespread light snow continued along the upper level trough and mainly along and north of the surface cold front. The upper level longwave trough is forecast to move southeast across the Northern Plains today and tonight.
Chances will increase from north to south this afternoon into this evening with the approach of a cold front. The low temperatures may lead to a few snowflakes mixing in with the rain early Friday morning in our northwest counties, but it should be brief.
broad high pressure remains centered across the region as a mid level ridge moves over South Florida. The warm trend continues with afternoon highs in the mid-upper 80s, and morning lows in the mid 60s to low 70s, warmer near the coast.
Warm air just above the boundary layer should put a lid on any convective potential today, but the approaching cold front may produce a few showers in the far north toward dawn Friday. Speaking of the cold front, the pressure gradient over the Delta region will tighten considerably as the front draws near today.
Lgt/vrbl flow thru the H100-H70 lyr as a deep anticyclone has settled over central FL, centered just north of Tampa Bay. Position of the anticyclone has left the lcl airmass largely surpressed, RAP40 analysis shows descending mid lvl omega/upr lvl divergence fields and negligible vorticity, while the 15/12Z RAOBs all show a sharp subsidence inversion in the H85-H70 lyr with significant drying abv H85. Ridging over central FL will effectively cap the lcl airmass arnd H85, while lgt/vrbl winds sfc/low lvl will limit any potential for mesoscale bndry interaction.
This all will continue to track off to the south and east through the day as high pressure tries to work its way in. Falling temperatures are expected through the day as cold high pressure builds across western and central North Dakota. Currently, an upper level longwave trough extended from the Hudson Bay Low southwestward across the Canadian prairies to the Desert Southwest. Widespread light snow continued along the upper level trough and mainly along and north of the surface cold front. The upper level longwave trough is forecast to move southeast across the Northern Plains today and tonight.
416 AM MST Thu Feb 15 2018 Upper trough axis now extends from the northern Rockies into the Great Basin region and northern California. a strong cold front is now crossing east central Montana into North Dakota, with snow falling over those areas into northwest South Dakota. Snowfall is expected across the area, with the higher amounts will be limited to parts of northeast Wyoming to northwest South Dakota. At this time it looks like counties farther south may still see some localized impacts with snow/blowing snow, but the higher confidence is across northwest South Dakota where snowfall amounts will be greater.
The Pacific Northwest trough will move through Utah today. This trough will bring colder temperatures and occasional snow to northern and western Utah through the day today.
Snow showers associated with an upper trough will continue over the higher terrain today. The showers will decrease this afternoon and end this evening as the trough moves to our east. Snow will develop over the higher terrain of Baker County and in the Boise/West Central Idaho Mountains where accumulations of up to 2 inches are expected. Temperatures will be near normal today, and several degrees warmer (except little change north) on Friday.
628 AM EST Thu Feb 15 2018 Aviation Fog and drizzle will persist this morning then rain showers will move through this afternoon as low pressure tracks south of Michigan. A cold front comes through tonight with rain showers changing to snow showers. Not expecting much accums as inversion heights are around 5 kft then crash as sfc ridging builds in Friday afternoon.
Issued by National Weather Service KEY WEST FL 909 AM EST Thu Feb 15 2018 In the low levels of the atmosphere, an Atlantic ridge of high pressure will extend across Central Florida this afternoon. In the mid levels of the atmosphere, an area of high pressure will be centered over the east central Gulf of Mexico today. In the upper levels of the atmosphere, a ridge of high pressure will be located over the northern Gulf of Mexico this afternoon. broad high pressure remains centered across the region as a mid level ridge moves over South Florida. The warm trend continues with afternoon highs in the mid-upper 80s, and morning lows in the mid 60s to low 70s, warmer near the coast.
A cold front will quickly cut through the CWA this morning. There will be no mistake that a cold blast came through tonight, as temps will easily dip to the single digits and teens, and the wind from the north will be quite brisk in the evening, ushering in much cooler air.
A 850 mb warm front is lifting north across the area, with some gusty winds being observed in the warm sector.
At around midnight, stronger winds in the lower levels of the atmosphere began mixing down, causing an increase in surface winds. As a result, the Dense Fog Advisory will be cancelled for the inland portions of Cameron and Willacy Counties but kept in place everywhere else previously in effect as marine fog along the Lower Texas Coast advects inland. Otherwise, 500 mb high pressure over the BRO CWFA will produce dry weather with well above normal temperatures.
An area of low pressure and Arctic front will cross the region today.
531 AM CST Thu Feb 15 2018 Warm temperatures will be the name of the game today out ahead of a cold front that will move through the region later this afternoon. That said, warm front over our region this morning will not totally clear the CWA before the cold front arrives later today, meaning there should be a pretty healthy temperature gradient across our region. Behind this secondary feature, gusty north winds will overspread the region with 25-30 mph gusts expected through early Friday before high pressure leads to weakening speeds by early afternoon. The main interest item for Friday will be the noticeably cooler temperatures as highs Friday afternoon will only warm into the lower to middle 30s.
Speeds will drop off somewhat by 16/00Z with MVFR cigs returning overnight across all of our sites ahead of a cold front which will be entering the region toward daybreak Friday morning as this TAF period ends at 16/12Z. We may see a few light sprinkles as cloud decks lift in the warmer air later this morning. Nearby sites such as Idabel and Camden have improved to 6 and 4 miles respectively as the warm front continues to move Northward. Little change on the approaching cold frontal timing with another mild start on Friday.
521 AM CST Thu Feb 15 2018 Above normal temperatures are once again in the forecast for today in advance of a cold front. The above mentioned cold front will approach the OK Panhandle late this afternoon and sweep southward across the Texas Panhandle this evening and tonight with gusty north winds in its wake for several hours.
There are only a few very small and weak echoes on KBYX Doppler radar well south and southwest of the Lower Keys. The early morning local sounding indicated a slight increase in moisture in the lowest layers, but not by much.
625 AM EST Thu Feb 15 2018 A weak trough of low pressure and its accompanying rain will exit the coast early today. Much warmer conditions expected Thursday and Friday ahead of a cold front.
1117 PM CST Sat Jan 27 2018 An upper level trough is currently moving through the midwest, as ridging increases over the west coast. This disturbance and associated cold front could bring a quick shot of light snow to the area tomorrow, before exiting southeast Nebraska Sunday evening. Clouds will increase and winds will begin to swing around to the north tonight with the passage of this front, ushering cooler air into the region for Sunday. Highs will range from the mid 30s in far southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa, to the low 20s over the previously snow-covered parts of northeast Nebraska. High pressure will build into the area Monday with temperatures limited to the mid 20s and lower 30s.
A cold front is draped across Ern KY and Middle TN, and will make slow eastward progress through our area this morning and early afternoon. It has moved slower than expected as the midlevel flow ahead of a positively-tiled trough is parallel to the front, but models indicate that it will be east of our area by mid afternoon, although post-frontal precip may continue into the evening. PoPs should drop back sharply with the passage of the 700 mb trough and resulting dry advection aloft around 00Z.
This area of low pressure will move east through the night approaching western Florida on Sunday. The rain shield ahead of this low will begin to move through on Sunday afternoon with the highest POPs (80-100 percent) expected between 28/18Z (Sunday afternoon) until 29/12Z (Monday morning). High pressure pulls away as a cold front approaches from the west. Another area of low pressure develops along the southern tip of this front and will bring unsettled weather and possible thunderstorms across the coastal waters for the next 36 hours. High pressure behind the front is reinforced from Canada as it settles into the southeastern states by midweek.
351 AM EST Sun Jan 28 2018 Rain chances continue today mainly to the south and east of I-68, with dry weather elsewhere under high pressure. Cooler temperatures arrive Monday.
341 AM CST Sun Jan 28 2018 Light winds, clear skies and dry conditions tonight has resulted in good radiational cooling and temperatures near or below freezing will be common across the region come sunrise. Look forward to a very beautiful Sunday as high temperatures warm into the low to mid 60s under mostly clear skies. Looks like we'll still see a secondary shot of cooler air Monday but it will only cool high temperatures by 4 or 5 degrees.
Diurnal temperature response will be muted by that steady cold air advection, with afternoon temperature ranging from through the 20s into the lower 30s (these are still a bit above normal for this time of year).
1001 PM CST Sat Jan 27 2018 The cold front continues to make slow Swd progress across Deep E TX/Ncntrl LA this evening, with winds finally shifting to the N along a DKR, to OCH, to 3F3 and N of a RSN line as of 03Z. /issued 601 PM CST Sat Jan 27 2018/ Cold front movg very slowly se across the area, currently near a keld to kshv to just south of ktyr line.
High pressure will bring a strong warming trend over the next several days with record or near record high temperatures possible Monday. Should see less high clouds later today into tonight as upper ridge amplifies up the western CONUS. As this ridge strengthens over the desert SW into Monday record or near record high temperatures are possible, especially for the lower deserts from Tucson west.
Upper troughing amplifies over the ern U. Overall, we're looking at a sharp cool down later this week as a vigorous longwave trough starts to dominant the upper-air pattern across the central and eastern CONUS. Prior to the onset of this persistent troughing, we will see temperatures fluctuation through the middle of the week with chances for lake effect and system snow.
1022 PM MST Sat Jan 27 2018 Latest upper analysis showing a trough dropping southward across the eastern Dakota, producing some scattered flurries over the eastern part of the forecast area this afternoon. Cool high pressure is moving in at the surface on breezy to windy northwest winds. The cooler air moving into the region will result in lows in the single digits and teens above zero tonight with highs in the 20s to lower 30s on Sunday.
A warm front will push across the region tonight and some drier conditions will move into central oregon toward morning. The warm front that brought mountain snow and some rain to the valleys has moved off to the northeast. However, snow levels will be quite a bit higher and therefore most of the precipitation will be in the form of rain, even in the mountains except the higher peaks.
Moderate southeast to south winds prevailed in the lower levels, while west to southwest winds were noted throughout the remainder of the sounding. /issued 416 PM CST Sat Jan 27 2018/ Weak surface 1018 mb low pressure system that brought the heavy rains to the area is currently slowly filling in near the Pearl River The upper impulse that was enhancing the rainfall has aligned with lower level feature to make the system more progressive in the past couple of hours. High pressure then builds in for drier and cooler conditions during the day Sunday into Monday.
Cold front recently exited far southeast Wisconsin with initial push of cold air settling into the area. At first flow is 10 knots or less this afternoon, but increases to 10 to 20 knots this evening and continues into the late night before the low level winds begin backing more to the NNW.
1138 PM EST Sat Jan 27 2018 Rain through tonight with a crossing cold front. Rain chances continue Sunday south of Interstate 68, with dry weather expected under high pressure elsewhere. Still expect some subfreezing temperatures by morning across the north. The deepening trough advancing out of the Midwest is progged for a Monday/Monday night approach. Increased POPs to likely for some areas as models indicate increased convergence with a low-mid level trough.
The next warm front that will affect the area is nearing the coast.