Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
728 PM EDT FRI AUG 21 2015 HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BRING DRY WEATHER AND LOW HUMIDITY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WITH SOME HIGH 40'S POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ALL SHOULD REMAIN QUIET UNTIL THE NEXT WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES.
1024 PM EDT FRI AUG 21 2015 BRINGING IN COOLER AND DRIER AIR.
WINDS HAVE BACKED MORE THAN GUIDANCE INDICATED EARLIER BUT SHOULD BEGIN TO VEER LATER TONIGHT AS LEE TROUGH SHIFTS EAST. /ISSUED 258 PM CDT FRI AUG 21 2015/ MID AND UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PANHANDLES WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST OVERNIGHT. SOME MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY TRY TO FORM BEHIND THIS FEATURE ALONG THE LEE-SIDE TROUGH IN EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND THE WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW WOULD THEN TEND TO BRING THEM ACROSS THE PANHANDLES THIS EVENING. INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE ALONG WITH INCREASING SHEAR WITH THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH SHOULD HELP TO FORM THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE PANHANDLES SATURDAY NIGHT WHICH SHOULD HELP FIRE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING SATURDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.
728 PM EDT FRI AUG 21 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING SEASONABLE AND PLEASANT WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND.
IN THE MEAN TIME AN UPPER TROUGH WILL SWING DOWN OVER THE AREA BUT AIR MASS IS QUITE DRY AND GOOD SUBSIDENCE IN LOWER 10K FEET WILL SUPPRESS ANY CONVECTION TRY TO DEVELOP EXCEPT FOR AREAS NEAR THE ALABAMA BORDER LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER LEVEL LOW DROPPING FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA INTO NORTHWEST MONTANA. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE STRONG WINDS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BEHIND A COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT.
GOES DERIVED IMAGERY INDICATES A SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER AIRMASS LOCATED OFF THE LOWER TEXAS COAST.
This feature will push a cold front into northwest Kansas by evening. Highs look to be in the low to mid 90s with south winds of 15 to 25 mph ahead of the cold front.
DEWPOINTS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA ARE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S AND THE 12Z KJAN SOUNDING INDICATED A PW VALUE OF 1.
Temperatures across the area were in the lower to mid 90s. Keeping an eye on a vort max (per WV imagery) over southeast Colorado, with subtle trough axis extending south into west Texas. Going with slight chance to chance Pops generally north of Sterling City to Brownwood line for tonight, with the highest numbers north of the I-20 corridor. The low-level jet will intensify by mid-evening, keeping southerly winds up at 10-15 mph overnight.
A DEEPENING LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE C AND E U. HIGHS STILL IN THE LOWER 90S. BUT WITH THE LOWER DEWPTS.
A SHALLOW PUSH OF MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER MAINLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN MOHAVE COUNTY THIS WEEKEND.
1207 AM EDT SAT AUG 22 2015 HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BRING DRY WEATHER AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE REGION IS EXPECTED TO KEEP MAINLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE DAY. ALL SHOULD REMAIN QUIET UNTIL THE NEXT WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES.
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES ZONAL FLOW OVER THE PLAINS WITH SHORT WAVE TROUGHS IN THE FLOW OVER KANSAS DOWN INTO TEXAS. AT THE SURFACE A TROUGH/DRY LINE WAS LOCATED OVER EAST CENTRAL COLORADO STRETCHING NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PEAK BY LATE AFTERNOON AS THE BREEZY WINDS FROM THE LOW LEVEL JET MIX DOWN TO THE GROUND. THE PRIMARY SENSIBLE WEATHER TO FOCUS ON WILL BE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT PASSES AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OCCURS. A COLD FRONT SHOULD BEGIN SLIDING INTO THE FORECAST AREA. AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THE LOCATIONS UNDER THE HIGHEST THREAT FOR STORMS/SEVERE WEATHER LIE ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM HILL CITY KANSAS TO OAKLEY TO KIT CARSON COLORADO. THIS MAY LEAD TO A FLASH FLOODING THREAT IF STORMS TRAIN ALONG THE EAST/WEST ORIENTED COLD FRONT.
A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH OVERNIGHT. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION ON SATURDAY. LOW AMPLITUDE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS PINNED OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. PASSAGE OF THE DRY COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT INTO THE MORNING HOURS WILL ALLOW A FURTHER DECREASE OF WIND SPEEDS FOR TOMORROW. A DRY COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH IS EXPECTED TO SWITCH WINDS AT THE KSLC TERMINAL BACK TO THE NORTHWEST BETWEEN 05-06Z. THE TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL BRING A DRY COLD FRONT INTO NORTHERN UTAH OVERNIGHT. COMBINED WITH THE LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AND DRY FUELS OVER NORTHWEST UTAH. WINDS WILL DECREASE TOMORROW AS HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS BEHIND THE EXITING SYSTEM. LINGERING MOISTURE OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN UTAH WILL RESULT IN SOME STORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE WEEKEND.
733 PM EDT FRI AUG 21 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BUILD EAST INTO PENNSYLVANIA TODAY AND REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT OVER MAINLY LA/AR TERMINALS AS WARM FRONT SOUTH OF I-20 BEGINS TO LIFT NORTH. AND DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN THE LOWER 70S. ALTHOUGH MID LVL MOISTURE TO BE THINNING AS TROUGH SWINGS THRU. /ISSUED 415 PM CDT FRI AUG 21 2015/ A WARM FRONT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS DEEP EAST TEXAS AND WEST-CENTRAL LOUISIANA AROUND THE HWY 84 CORRIDOR. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE WARM FRONT TONIGHT AS IT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE AREA. A SECONDARY UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE RED RIVER VALLEY OVERNIGHT. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND DUE TO A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH PARKED ACROSS THE REGION WITHIN MAINLY ZONAL FLOW.
CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP LATER IN AM AS UPPER TROUGH MOVG EAST OF PANHANDLES SWINGS ACROSS AREA. THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 00Z REGIONAL RAOB PLOT INDICATES A WEAK UPPER TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS EXTENDING FROM S TX INTO NE TX AND SW AR THIS EVENING.
708 PM EDT FRI AUG 21 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE THE REGION WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
624 PM CDT FRI AUG 21 2015 FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED TONIGHT THANKS TO 1021 MB HIGH PRESSURE OVER IN/KY/OH BORDER THAT MOVES INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES BY MIDDAY SAT. LOWS OVERNIGHT OF 55- 60F WITH COOLEST READINGS IN EASTERN IL CLOSER TO HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AND WHERE WINDS WILL BE LIGHTEST.
A COLD FRONT BROUGHT GUSTY W-NW WINDS UP TO 35 MPH THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD ON SATURDAY FOR LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES.
IN THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF BERMUDA OVERNIGHT. AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO TONIGHT. AN ANTICYCLONE WILL BE LOCATED OVER NORTH FLORIDA OVERNIGHT.
THINGS BEING WATCHED INCLUDE A LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SURGE OVER THE EASTERN CWA AT THIS TIME WHILE THE LOW LEVEL JET IS INCREASING TO AS MUCH AS 40 KNOTS. LOTS OF CONVECTION NOTED AT THIS HOUR WITH THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM /INDICATION OF A STRONG UPPER LOW/ HEADING THIS DIRECTION. EXPECT THAT THE SMOKE WILL GET SCOURED OUT AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES THIS EVENING. THIS APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING THE FORECAST CHALLENGES IN THE SHORT TERM.
The cooler air and lighter winds on Saturday should help regional firefighting efforts, but the light winds and strong morning inversions this weekend may create areas of poor air quality due to high concentrations of wildfire smoke. Cote' 00Z TAFS: Low pressure will pivot across northeast WA/north ID this evening and high pressure will start to move in overnight into Saturday.
1008 PM EDT FRI AUG 21 2015 HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD EAST FROM OHIO TONIGHT.
738 PM EDT FRI AUG 21 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVERHEAD THROUGH TONIGHT. MOISTURE SHOULD RETURN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT THIS WEEKEND.
WITH LOWS DIPPING INTO THE MID 50S AT NIGHT AND HIGHS ON SATURDAY REACHING THE LOW 80S. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO TRAVERSE FROM NEAR THE MANITOBA/ND/MN/ONTARIO BORDER ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEKEND. THIS UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INTO ONTARIO AND QUEBEC THROUGH MIDWEEK. NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW BETWEEN THIS SYSTEM AND A RIDGE ACROSS THE ROCKIES THIS WILL LEAVE MUCH OF THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY WITH NW FLOW OF COLDER AND RATHER DRY AIR FOR THE END OF AUGUST. THE TROUGH WILL LIFT ON OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THOUGH THE NW FLOW BETWEEN PERSISTENT RIDGING OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AND ROCKIES AND THE TROUGH SHOULD CONTINUE TO BRING PERIODIC WEAK DISTURBANCES IN NW FLOW KEEPING A WEAKER AND BROAD TROUGH IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS.
DRIER AND LESS HUMID AIR WILL FILTER INTO CENTRAL NC FOR THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE GULF STATES WILL BE BLOCKED AND RESULTING ACTIVITY LIMITED BY A SHORT WAVE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST COAST. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES STATES WILL SOUTH INTO CENTRAL NC SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN OVERNIGHT.
THE SHEAR AXIS ERODES FROM THE NORTH INTO AN INVERTED TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN TEXAS AS A BRIDGE BETWEEN THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGES OVER THE EASTERN GULF COAST STATES AND THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES OCCURS OVER TEXAS TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. TROUGH MOVES OFF THE WEST INTO MEXICO SATURDAY NIGHT WITH NO ADDITIONAL IMPACT TO OUR AREA AS MOISTURE DECREASES FURTHER. MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY DUE TO LESS CLOUDINESS AND RAIN.
HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE LOW 30S. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOW 20S. THESE FACTORS COMBINED WITH SATURATED PROFILE WARMER THAN -10 C ALL POINT TOWARDS A MARGINAL AT BEST SETUP.
140 PM MST THU DEC 31 2015 A COL REGION AT MID/UPPER-LEVELS OVER COLORADO ON THE EAST SIDE OF A CLOSED UPPER LOW APART OF A REX BLOCK ALONG THE WEST COASTS OF U. RADIATIONAL COOLING UNDER A CLEAR SKY WILL PRODUCE ANOTHER NIGHT OF VERY COLD TEMPERATURES ESPLY FOR THE HIGH MTN VALLEYS AND LOWER AREAS ON THE PLAINS SUCH AS ALONG THE SOUTH PLATTE. LIGHT WINDS AND SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE TO BE EXPECTED WITH THE START OF WARMING ALOFT AND LIGHT/VARIABLE FLOW ALOFT.
LATEST SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE HAS MADE IT THROUGH WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. WINDS HAVE INCREASED BEHIND THE TROUGH WITH WINDS GENERALLY 15 TO 25 MPH. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. COAST TO THE ROCKIES AND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE HUDSON BAY AREA OF CANADA. EXPECT A PRETTY GOOD TEMPERATURE RANGE WITH PROTECTED AREAS LIKE KBIS AND KISN DROPPING LOWER THAN THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS SUCH AS MINOT AND DICKINSON. THE LATEST 500MB HEIGHT FORECAST PER GFS AND ECMWF ADVERTISE THIS EL NINO PATTERN WITH A MEAN UPPER RIDGE SITUATED OVER SOUTHWEST CANADA.
THE LOWER LEVELS SHOULD STAY DRY AND MAY SEE MVFR FOR THE KDRT AND THE SAN ANTONIO SITES OVERNIGHT. INCREASING CLOUDS AND COOL TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S. RE-ENFORCING SURGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.
MILD AND MOIST AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE NEXT 36 HOURS BEFORE A COLD FRONT IMPACTS THE AREA LATE FRIDAY. MODEL CROSS- AND TIME-SECTIONS INDICATE A STEEPING MOISTURE PROFILE AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS TO BOTH THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE STATE THROUGH THE PERIOD KEEPING SOME CLOUD COVER IN PLACE.
326 PM EST THU DEC 31 2015 A BROAD WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TODAY.
STILL SOME VALLEY STRATUS AND LOW CLOUDS TO BURN OFF AND WE MAY HAVE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS LINGER UNDER THIS LOW DECK. EXPECT 2 INCHES OR LESS AT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WITHIN THE ABOVE MENTIONED CORRIDOR. ON NEW YEARS DAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTER CUTS OFF OVER THE GREAT BASIN. ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE TOWARD THE LOW CENTER BEGINS FROM NEW MEXICO NW OVER SWRN CO AND ERN UT. A 500 MB CLOSED LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL BE SITUATED OVER NRN CA AND THE PACNW. WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER WESTERN CANADA. THIS SETUP WILL BE RELATIVELY BRIEF AS WILL GET ABSORBED INTO A STRONG TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE PACIFIC.
POPS REMAIN LOW, WITH A SLIGHTLY GREATER CHC OF PRECIP THROUGH THE WESTERN INTERIOR AND LAKE REGION, AS A COLD FRONT ENTERS CENTRAL FL LATE TOMORROW. THE DAYS OF THE WARM, PERSISTENT RIDGE OVER SOUTH FL ARE NUMBERED. A TROUGH WILL DEEPEN OVER SE CANADA AND THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC AS A REX BLOCK DEVELOPS OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. ALTHOUGH THIS WILL ASSIST MOVING THE FRONT NEAR SOUTH FL BY SAT MORNING, THE BOUNDARY WILL STALL AND AWAIT FURTHER DEEPENING OF THE EASTERN CONUS TROUGH.
ALONG WITH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY OR TROF. MEANWHILE H5 RIDGING AND MID LEVEL /H8-H5/ WARM ADVECTION IS EVIDENT BUILDING INTO NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA ATTM.
1126 AM CST THU DEC 31 2015 Some patchy freezing drizzle has been occurring the last couple hours along the I-74 corridor from near Peoria southeast through Champaign. Forecast was updated earlier this morning to add some freezing drizzle mention, and was again updated recently to extend the threat til noon. 00Z forecast models continue to show a broad upper level trof over the Midwest that gradually shifts east across the Great Lakes region and into New England this New Years weekend. Meanwhile large high pressure over the central plains, ridges eastward into the mid MS and OH river valleys next few days and to provide dry wx over central and southeast IL. Breezy west winds 10-20 mph will make it feel cooler Friday with partly to mostly sunny skies (more clouds ne CWA).
EXCEPTION WOULD BE OVER NORTHWEST YUMA COUNTY WHERE THE WIND WILL COME OFF DEEPER SNOWPACK TO THE WEST WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 30S.
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWED THE BROAD TROUGH OVER MOST OF THE COUNTRY WITH A STRONG POSITIVE TILT AND SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER TEXAS. A SERIES OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE PATTERN BRINGING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION STARTING THIS EVENING AND INCREASING OVERNIGHT. MODELS ARE TRENDING AWAY FROM WINTER PRECIP KEEPING TEMPERATURES WARMER THROUGH THE VERTICAL.
WEAK UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED AREA OF LIGHT SNOW, JUST SOUTH OF KGTF AT 1100Z, WILL MOVE STEADILY SOUTHWARD THIS MORNING. SKIES WILL PROGRESSIVELY CLEAR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THIS AFTN AS THE TROUGH EXITS INTO ID/WY.
THESE ARE NORTH OF A COLD FRONT JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE MARINE FA.
DRY AND SEASONALLY COOL WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS A LARGE SCALE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ALONG THE WEST COAST.
THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE MORNING HOURS. WITH AREA OF FREEZING FOG UNTIL LATE MORNING. SO HAVE DECIDED TO POST A FREEZING FOG ADVISORY FOR THE DENSE FOG. DECIDED ON FREEZING FOG. AS TEMPS BELOW FREEZING MAY LEAD TO SOME OF THE FOG FREEZES ON CONTACT WITH ELEVATED SURFACES. AN ELONGATED TROUGH WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH FRI. WITH A LARGE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE WRN HIGH PLAINS. THIS WILL LEAD TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA INTO FRI AS THE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE AREA BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. KETCHAM RIDGING WILL REMAIN OVER THE ROCKIES INTO THE WEEKEND WITH DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. SO COULD SEE MORE OF A DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE CHANCE.
Allowing freezing fog advisory to expire on schedule at 9 AM CST. Medium range models indicate a zonal flow aloft prevailing across the high plains of western Kansas early in the period Friday while a Rex Block briefly develops across across the Pacific Northwest down into northern California and Nevada.
AND TEMPERATURES ARE CONSEQUENTLY A LITTLE WARMER THAN EXPECTED IN MANY SPOTS. THERE STILL IS POTENTIAL FOR CLOUDS TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON AS A FLAT UPPER WAVE AND RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A HIGH LEVEL JET STREAK TO THE NORTH IMPACT THE LOWER MS VALLEY. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA. COOL NORTHERLY WINDS MAY MAKE FOR A BRISK DAY WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOWER 50S.
THE STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE MOISTURE OVERRIDING THE COOLER AIR. WATER VAPOR CONTINUES TO SHOW A LARGE UPPER TROUGH WORKING INTO THE CENTRAL U.
Clearing skies today have proven to boost temperatures into the mid/upper 30s and even into the low 40s, so have trended warmer for Friday temperatures considering the continued light westerly winds and sunny skies.
118 PM EST THU DEC 31 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON.
AS TROUGH ACROSS CONUS CONTINUES TO FLATTEN OUT. BUILDING RIDGE OVER PACIFIC NORTHWEST/SOUTHWEST CANADA IS LEADING TO MORE NORTHWEST TO NORTH FLOW ACROSS UPPER MIDWEST. TRACKING ONE SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT WILL PASS EARLY IN WHATS LEFT OF SOUTHERN FLOW. 16Z AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.
/ISSUED / COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH MOST ALL OF NORTH GEORGIA WITH SOME MUCH NEEDED DRIER AIR WORKING IN FROM LA GRANGE TO GAINESVILLE AND POINTS NORTHWARD. WILL HOLD ONTO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT SAGS ACROSS THIS AREA TODAY. EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO PUSH SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY THIS EVENING. A COOLER AIRMASS WILL FILTER SOUTH BEHIND A COLD FRONT AND BRING LOWS DOWN INTO THE 30S AND 40S TONIGHT.
TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST OF THE REGION. WITH A SURFACE TROF STRETCHING FROM NORTHERN ND TO EASTERN MT. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS HAS POSITIVELY TILTED TROF STRETCHING FROM ND TO WY AND NORTHERN UT. WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING BY MIDDAY AS THE TROF MOVES SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. PASSING SURFACE TROF WILL BRING BRISK NORTHWESTERLY WINDS TO THE PLAINS LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. BUT BETTER BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING THIS AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS TODAY. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES CAN BE EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND AS RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
1108 AM EST THU DEC 31 2015 COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH MOST ALL OF NORTH GEORGIA WITH SOME MUCH NEEDED DRIER AIR WORKING IN FROM LA GRANGE TO GAINESVILLE AND POINTS NORTHWARD. WILL HOLD ONTO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT SAGS ACROSS THIS AREA TODAY. EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO PUSH SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY THIS EVENING. A COOLER AIRMASS WILL FILTER SOUTH BEHIND A COLD FRONT AND BRING LOWS DOWN INTO THE 30S AND 40S TONIGHT.
THIS GENERAL PATTERN SHOULD HOLD THROUGH AT LEAST THE WEEKEND AS RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD IN THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL DECREASE WITH THE APPROACH OF A SURFACE PRESSURE RIDGE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND FROM BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
THE MID/UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN CONUS IS PROGGED TO SHEAR EASTWARD AND FILL WHILE RISING HEIGHTS ARE PROGGED ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN CONUS. THE MID/UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE ROCKIES AT THE START OF THE PERIOD IS PROGGED TO TRANSLATE RAPIDLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS AND OVER THE SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. A ROBUST MID/UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED TO MOVE OVER THE WEST COAST AND ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST BRINGING INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION (RAIN/SNOW) TO THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS LATER IN THE WEEK.
SKIES CONTINUE TO CLEAR WITH A DRIER N-NWLY FLOW DOWNSLOPING OFF THE CHEYENNE RIDGE. THERE IS A WEAK COLD FRONT AROUND CASPER WITH BETTER MOISTURE BEHIND IT. THEY DO SHEAR THE MID LEVEL TROUGH APART AS IT DROPS TOWARD COLORADO.
218 PM CST THU DEC 31 2015 The Nino Wave Train is speeding along with no less than 4, possibly 5 mid/upper level trofs to move thru the area over the next 7-10 days. GFS is slightly warmer and would tend to minimize the concerns for -FZDZ. Finally into Sat PM there will be the exiting of the said jet and associated shrtwv trof which will bring more -SHRA near the Big Bend/Rio Grande, although models have trended PoPs farther s.
153 PM EST THU DEC 31 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WITH COLDER AIR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH PERIODS OF SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS.
THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE EXITING TROUGH CLOSES NEAR RENO THEN LIFTS INTO SOUTHERN OREGON FRIDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE VALLEY INVERSIONS REMAIN IN PLACE ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGH BASINS WHILE SLOPE AND MOUNTAIN TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE NORMAL. A STRONG RIDGE ALONG THE CANADIAN WEST COAST WILL HELP SPLIT PACIFIC STORM ENERGY DIRECTING MUCH OF IT ACROSS SOUTHERN CA AND THE DESERT SW.
305 PM CST THU DEC 31 2015 WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ENGULFING THE ENTIRE UNITED STATES THIS AFTERNOON.
PERHAPS A TAD COOLER ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S AS THE MID LEVELS MOISTEN UP AND CLOUD DEPTH INCREASES. SURGING HIGH PRESSURE ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT WILL INCREASE WINDS AND BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT. WOULD EVEN BE COOLER THURSDAY NIGHT EXCEPT WINDS WILL STAY UP MORE. WITH WINDS INCREASING LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE SURGE.
THERE COULD ONCE AGAIN BE AREAS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE/FOG WHERE SNOW IS NOT FALLING BUT MODELS WERE ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH WHERE IT COULD DEVELOP AND AFTER THE LAST TWO OVERNIGHTS. TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY CLOSE TO FREEZING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND WILL DROP BELOW FAIRLY FAST AFTER SUNSET. IT WILL BE COOLER THAN IN THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS WITH GUIDANCE TODAY ALONG WITH DPROG/DT CLUSTERING AT OR A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE FREEZING FOR THE CAPROCK WITH CLOSE TO 40 DEGREES FOR THE ROLLING PLAINS. AMPLIFIED UA RIDGING TRANSLATES EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS.
LOW CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE LOWER VALLEYS BELOW 4000 FEET AND IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS OF CENTRAL IDAHO THIS MORNING. STRATUS AND ASSOCIATED TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE BIGGEST ISSUE THROUGH FRIDAY AS AREAS REMAINING IN THE STRATUS WILL BE CONSIDERABLE WARMER THAN AREA WITH CLEAR SKIES. MOST OF THE HIGH- RES MODELS ERODE THE STRATUS AS FAR WEST AS THE ADA/ELMORE COUNTY LINE LEAVING MUCH OF THE STRATUS ACROSS THE VALLEYS OF SE OREGON AND THE LOWER TREASURE VALLEY BY SUNSET.
145 PM CST THU DEC 31 2015 THE LOW CLOUDS OVER THE TN VALLEY ARE BEGINNING TO BECOME MORE SCATTERED THIS AFTERNOON. WITH CAA AND A SLIGHT BREAKUP IN THE LOW CLOUDS TONIGHT. THIS BLOCKING PATTERN WILL ALLOW FOR A CONTINUED STREAM OF SYSTEMS DROPPING SOUTH OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE MIDWEST/NE US THIS WEEKEND. THE BLOCKING PATTERN ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS SHIFTS NORTHWARD INTO ALASKA/WESTERN CANADA AND IS UNDERCUT BY A STRENGTHENING SUBTROPICAL JET AIMED AT THE WEST COAST. AS THE BLOCK SHIFTS NORTHWARD IT WILL AMPLIFY THE TROUGH PATTERN ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS.
A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTER IN MINNESOTA. THIS PATTERN WILL BUILD A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE INTO WESTERN CANADA. THIS WARMING IS DUE TO THE FLOW AROUND THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM ADVECTING MILD PACIFIC AIR INTO THAT AREA.
Earlier update removed morning freezing fog and late morning update has reflected slight adjustments to cloud and temp trends for this afternoon.
A TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE STATE EARLIER TODAY WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD POOL ALOFT BROUGHT IN ADDITIONAL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED FLURRIES. ANOTHER TROUGH IS MOVING INTO NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL MN AND IS PRODUCING MORE FLURRIES. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS PLENTIFUL AND AS A RESULT ANY WEAK TROUGH WILL GENERATE SCATTERED FLURRIES. THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MOVES OUT FRIDAY MORNING AND WE SHOULD SEE THE RETURN OF PARTLY SUNNY SKIES IN THE AFTERNOON. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WERE PRETTY COOL TODAY RELATIVELY SPEAKING AND LOWS TONIGHT WILL REMAIN IN THE 5 TO 10 ABOVE RANGE THANKS MAINLY TO THE PERSISTENCE OF 5 TO 10 MPH WEST WINDS THAT WILL BRING IN WARMER AIR.
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR IS ACCOMPANYING THIS HIGH PRESSURE. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA SOUTHWEST INTO COLORADO AND UTAH. POSSIBLE FREEZING FOG DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING APPEARS TO BE THE ONLY POTENTIAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER THREAT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD HAVE MORE WEIGHT ON WHAT HAPPENS THIS MORNING. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY MAY BE AROUND 3-5 DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY.
Dewpoints are 10 to 15 degrees lower behind the front as noted by a dewpoint of 59 at Dothan, and have dropped into the low 40s in northern Alabama and Georgia.