Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1237 PM CDT FRI AUG 5 2016 A decaying convective complex is depicted on water vapor imagery along a cold front draped across eastern Iowa extending southwest into southeastern Kansas. Cloud cover combined with a cooler air mass behind the boundary will result in below normal temperatures throughout much of the CWA Friday afternoon. Temperatures across northern Missouri will only top the low 80s with temperatures in the mid to upper 80s expected over areas south of the Missouri River, near and ahead of the frontal boundary.
Temperatures today made it into the mid to upper 90s inland to the lower 90s along the coast. Esler field again took the infamous honor of taking the highest afternoon heat index over the last few days. The upper level dome of high pressure that has been with us for the last several weeks will slowly begin to retrograde to the northwest over the weekend allowing for a weakening of the cap which should translate into an increase in shower and thunderstorm activity mainly along the sea breeze during the late morning and afternoon hours.
More dangerous heat is expected Saturday given continued presence of the anomalously hot low level thermal ridge (H850 T up to +22 C) over the ArkLaMiss. Otherwise, diurnal convective coverage should be on the high side with the threat for severe storms too limited to mention in the HWO at this point.
Temps across the forecast area were ranging from the low to mid 90s. The short term models are in basic agreement involving slowing down the southward movement of the weakening frontal boundary across the lower Ohio valley region tonight. Have lowered pops slightly across north Alabama into the higher end chance category due to the slightly slower timing of frontal boundary for Saturday.
340 PM EDT FRI AUG 5 2016 A cold front should bring showers and thunderstorms as it moves through the region overnight. All models do indicate an upswing in precipitation tonight as the pre-frontal trough advances across the region. Any precipitation tonight will vacate the region by late tonight, with fog possible after its end owing to the lingering, very moist airmass prior to cold frontal passage. The system's cold front will move through late tonight/early tomorrow morning, which will have only a slight impact on temperatures as cold advection in its wake will not be strong.
The upper level ridge will remain firmly entrenched across South Texas during the short term.
ON Friday night a cold front approaches from the west.
Tightening gradients ahead of a West Coast trough will result in a faster storm motion than we have seen over the last several days. Atmospheric moisture and instability will be on the decrease as a West Coast trough causes a drier southwesterly wind to setup over northern Arizona.
133 PM EDT FRI AUG 5 2016 A cold front. Canadian high pressure will move SE across the Great Lakes this weekend.
However minor perturbations in the mid level zonal to shallow ridging flow in the Plains will tend to moisten mid levels and provide weak lift from time to time.
Cooler this weekend, with more clouds and a chance of showers.
Upper level ridge over the area today. gives way to southwest flow aloft this evening as an upper level trof begins shifting eastward from the Pacific coast. low level jet strengthens over eastern zones Saturday evening/night as lee sfc trof develops over western and central zones.
Cloud cover, and a modest cold front settling across Missouri, has kept conditions a little cool for early August; as afternoon highs along and south of the boundary in central Missouri where bubbling around the mid 80s with areas near the Iowa border in the mid 70s. Looking at the big picture, still a bit of a flat flow across the Nations Plains States late this work week with significant trough feature's over the west Coast and Hudson Bay. However, synoptic height gains across the Rockies show the ridge axis over the mountainous west starting to amplify which will induce more of a northwest flow across the Lower Missouri River Valley in the days to come.
little sensible weather as the ridge buildings across the area.
334 PM EDT FRI AUG 5 2016 The area will be situated between an inland trough and Atlantic high pressure through the weekend.
Expect VFR conditions to prevail across the Rio Grande valley and the northern ranchlands today as the 500mb ridge across the southern plains continues to provide subsidence across most of the state this afternoon. The 500mb ridge across the south central United States this morning will continue to provide subsidence across much of the state today through Saturday.
All through this period there will be mostly cloudy skies and temperatures are expected to be cooler.
It is going to be tough to get thunder today over the high plains, given Lifted Index values well above 0C. The thermal ridge pushes a bit further to the east on Saturday, resulting in slightly warmer temperatures. Initially in the extended periods we concentrated PoPs for scattered showers and thunderstorms across the higher elevations of Carbon and Albany counties with slight chance east. Beyond that will carry small PoPs in alignment with latest ensembles east onto the High Plains.
600 PM EDT FRI AUG 5 2016 A cold front will track across Pennsylvania Saturday morning.
307 PM EDT FRI AUG 5 2016 A cold front over the Great Lakes this morning will track across Pennsylvania Saturday morning.
A mid-level perturbation on the northern periphery of the ridge axis was observed lifting eastward across Kansas this morning. Persistent cool advection from the northeast will provide the much needed relief from the heat with highs in the lower to middle 80s. During the late evening Friday, moisture convergence increases along the front as another weak mid level embedded trough lifts through the area. On Saturday an upper level trough will move into the west coast from the Eastern Pacific while a downstream ridge builds over the the Rockies.
Surface analysis this afternoon places a weak cold front across portions of West Central Illinois back through Central Missouri and Eastern Kansas. Meanwhile, high pressure is located over the Southern Plains and portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley. Latest short term model trends suggest a weak cold front over Missouri will gradually begin to drift south/southeast into the Mid South later tonight into Saturday.
Although drier air will continue to work in from the west as the trough of low pressure off the Pacific Northwest coast moves inland, plenty of moisture will remain to generate more showers and thunderstorms with enough surface heating to act on this moisture and instability.
A passing cold front, will bring showers and thunderstorms to the entire region, from later tonight into Saturday.
On Friday, the upper ridge will contract a bit or move a little more westward, which should allow a frontal boundary to move into the area. There will be more clouds as well, and as a result cooler temperatures. Of course, when you're dealing with 100-degree temperatures and heat index values pushing 110 degrees, cooler is a relative term.
619 PM EDT FRI AUG 5 2016 A cold front will move south across the area tonight.
116 PM EDT FRI AUG 5 2016 A cold front. Canadian high pressure will move SE across the Great Lakes this weekend.
354 PM CDT FRI AUG 5 2016 Water vapor imagery shows monsoonal moisture continuing to advect north-northeast across the central Rockies and Plains as upper- level ridging remains anchored across the Southern Plains. A weak cold front that began to push through the area yesterday continues to slowly push across across south central and southeast Kansas.
High pressure will slowly slide off to the east tomorrow allowing for southerly return flow. This will bring slightly warmer temperatures in for Saturday and with an increase in the pressure gradient an increase in wind speeds as well.
335 PM CDT FRI AUG 5 2016 It appears that the cold front has just passed through COU and STL looking at their increased north-northwesterly surface winds along with the tighter surface dew point gradient across northern MO. Should continue to get more convective development, especially during the late afternoon and early evening hours across southeast MO and southwest IL as the cold front continues to drop slowly southward, possibly making it to near the AR border by 12Z Saturday.
Clockwise flow around this ridge will lead to northwest winds across MN/WI today with a few afternoon gusts of 15 to 20 mph.
230 PM MDT FRI AUG 5 2016 Upper level analysis has large ridge across the central CONUS with closed low in southwest British Columbia. At the surface, high pressure is in place across the Dakotas with return flow setting up across Northeast Wyoming and far western South Dakota. Dry weather will continue as upper ridge builds across the Northern Plains. Will go with highs in the low to mid 80s, except for 70s across the Black Hills and portions of far southern SD. Upper ridge axis remains across the Northern Plains overnight.
With high pressure pushing in through tomorrow, the cloud cover should be less when the cumulus does form.
244 PM CDT FRI AUG 5 2016 Main cold front is roughly near the Illinois River valley early this afternoon, with the drier 60s dew points not too far behind.
Clouds have been thinning across the ne fa however with moist layer AOB 800mb and convective temperatures in the low to mid 70s will likely see partial cloud cover today. High pressure will be overhead.
215 PM EDT FRI AUG 5 2016 A few cloud streets/cloud lines have formed along the lower Keys along the southeast flow, and Key West radar is picking up a few showers just south of Big Pine Key.
A large flat ridge remains firmly ensconced over the southern tier of states early this morning with a series of weak impulses moving along within the flow. a cold front extends from Northwestern Illinois through Northwestern Missouri to a low over Southcentral Kansas. These two features are working to set off complexes of thunderstorms around the periphery of the upper level ridge. The surface front is progged to make it to about the Highway 60 corridor by early this evening and will eventually stall out along the Missouri-Arkansas border.
/issued 358 AM CDT FRI AUG 5 2016/ Not unlike yesterday morning, scattered showers and thunderstorms over the northwest half of Oklahoma are expected to gradually dissipate through the morning as they move slowly east into closer proximity to the upper high pressure cell. This broad upper high over Texas, Louisiana, Oklahoma, and Arkansas will keep extremely hot and humid conditions around for at least another day or two.
Earlier outflow boundary has nearly exited the forecast area, with upper 70s dew points limited to the highway 50 corridor in our CWA. The main cold front is now starting to come into the northwest corner of the CWA near Galesburg and will push across the area through the afternoon. Large complex of thunderstorms that developed in advance of a cold front across Iowa last evening and spilled into west-central Illinois overnight is currently ongoing along/west of I-55. it appears likely that storms will redevelop along this boundary rather than the approaching cold front. Cold front will sink southward through the area this afternoon and evening, eventually pushing the higher rain chances into the Ohio River Valley later tonight.
A weak cold front over central Indiana will move south to the ohio river Saturday and stall across the southern U.
For Saturday, skies should stay mostly cloudy, north of a cold front that will continue to be near the Oklahoma border.
As a result, have the highest values across the western zones. Otherwise, highs today will be from the lower 80s in the north to mid 90s near the Oklahoma border. Will keep the highest pops across the north in association with the front and better upslope. A gradient of 80s to 90s is forecast for the highs.
This will have an effect on max temps, especially for areas across southern Kansas, even though this area will stay south of the front, the widespread cloud cover will keep temps almost 5 degrees cooler than previously thought, a little lower in the middle 80s. Ketcham A cold front was bisecting the forecast area early this morning while widely scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms accompanied the front. Highs may struggle to climb out of the lower 80s across much of central KS while locations near the OK state line may climb into the upper 90s. The mid/upper ridge is progged to amplify across the southern and central plains states through the period.
1047 AM PDT Fri Aug 5 2016 After a hot and sunny Friday, a strong slow moving low pressure system will move into the area Friday night. This low will bring cooler temperatures and the threat of showers and thunderstorms.
351 PM EDT FRI AUG 5 2016 A cold front over the Great Lakes this morning will track across Pennsylvania Saturday morning.
Isolated evening thunderstorms are possible this evening over the higher terrain in SW Montana but not expected to impact terminals.
High pressure will maintain warm and dry conditions across northeast Montana for the remainder of this afternoon and evening while clear skies prevail into tonight as well. On Saturday the upper level ridge begins to slide away as a trough/closed low deepens downstream across the Pacific Northwest.
152 PM PDT FRI AUG 5 2016 A cooling trend over central California will continue through the weekend due to a series of dry low pressure systems impacting the region. The passage of each trough will re-enforce the onshore flow and will bring intrusions of marine air into the San Joaquin Valley. The cooling trend began with the first trough moving through last night and early today. The next trough is expected to move through Saturday night and will help to keep temperatures in the mid 90s in the San Joaquin Valley through the weekend.
and Saturday A Canadian cold front was movg through c/ne WI early this morning, and was ushering much cooler and less humid air into the region. Precipitation chances will be minimal under the influence of Canadian high pressure over the next couple days, although a few models show some spotty QPF over northern WI at times. With the arrival of cooler H8 temps, would expect sct-bkn diurnal cumulus to develop the next couple afternoons, especially in northern WI, where there will be some contribution of instability and moisture off Lake Superior.
encompasses CWA as low/mid level low develops over extreme NE Gulf along persistent trough axis.
/Issued 409 AM EDT FRI AUG 5 2016/ Early this morning we will be dealing with low cloud deck from Atlantic moisture interacting with lingering wedge marked by inverted ridging and NE sfc fetch. Still main threat of wet microburst and localized flooding given the high PWATs generally in 1.
High Extensive CU field in association with cooler lower level thermal trough. The low level thermal trough will remain so expect more of this CU to diurnally evolve.
The forecast was updated to delay the higher pops a couple of hours and add in isolated chances for storms late this afternoon/early this evening for east central KY. At long last a cold front diving through the Upper Midwest is poised to push through the Ohio Valley, and ahead of it a MCS is currently gusting out over central Illinois.
Cold front will then slip south through the region during the night.
/Today/ High pressure will continue to move into the state today with some lingering storm chances this morning across the far southern portion of the forecast area.
344 PM CDT FRI AUG 5 2016 Upper level ridge axis was over MT. Ridge builds overnight and shifts to the MT/ND border by Sat afternoon.
Weakening upper low in northern California was moving northeast in the circulation of stronger upper low over Vancouver Island.
This Weekend: This weekend will see two features converging over Florida as the TUTT low currently over PR/Hispaniola rounds the western side of the Atlantic ridge just to our east and the east coast trough digs further south into the NE Gulf/FL Panhandle.
609 PM EDT FRI AUG 5 2016 The area will be situated between an inland trough and Atlantic high pressure through the weekend.
Leaned toward the cooler guidance for lows tonight, especially in the typical cold spots across the north. Saturday Night Through Friday Quiet weather will start off the period with a NW flow aloft and surface ridging building in from the northern Plains. It looks to be a little cooler than previous nights, especially over northern WI where lows could dip into the upper 40s.
Water Vapor Satellite trends this morning place an upper level ridge axis over the Southern Plains and eastern portions of the Mid-South on the periphery of the ridge axis. General pattern is upper level high over southern US. The high is currently centered over eastern Texas and is not expected to change much. By late in the weekend the upper level high will weaken just enough to have just an elongated high over the southern US, from coast to coast.
At any rate, the low clouds will clear back to the coast or offshore thru midday. Temps today are forecast to be about 5 to 15 deg below normal across much of the coast, vlys and foothills, and several degrees above normal overall in the higher mtns and deserts. Weak upper level troffiness will linger over swrn CA today thru Sat, then a slightly deeper upper trof will move into the area Sat night and Sun. Highs will continue to run several degrees below normal for the cst, vlys and foothills, and several degrees above normal mainly for the higher mtns.
Meanwhile, a cold front will continue to slowly sink south into the Missouri Ozarks tonight.
Concur with the GFS deterministic which maintains a quasi- stationary upper ridge over the Region.
The cold front that has been advertised currently stretches across northern and central IN. However, storms are expected to move back in from the north early tomorrow morning as the cold front pushes into southern IN and north central KY. By midnight everyone should be dry with lower dewpoints and a bit cooler air filtering in to the north.
305 PM EDT FRI AUG 5 2016 Cold front has cleared our CWA this afternoon. as the main upper level trough and secondary surface response slide into far Western Upper Michigan. Main upper level trough and surface response will swing thru our CWA tonight. Secondary trough sliding thru tonight may very well make up for loss of diurnal heating. NAM12 is the only short term model that tries to develop some scattered light rain showers across our SW CWA as the trough moves thru overnight. Will keep Saturday dry as well as high pressure/subsidence and drier air build into the region. Conditions will be noticeably cooler and less humid tonight and Saturday.
422 PM EDT FRI AUG 5 2016 A cold front will move south across the area tonight.
Large scale pattern at 500 mb features a ridge centered over the southern plains and a trough moving into the western United States. with high precipitable water (PW) over much of the area along and ahead of a cold front. High pressure had built into the western Dakotas. Much cooler low level airmass over the region today should result in high temperatures mainly in the upper 70s and lower 80s. we look for cooler than normal high temperatures with a frontal boundary remaining to our south. The ridge initially centered over the Southern Plains should develop farther east. allowing the trough over the western part of the country to also move east.
Iowa will remain in the right entrance region of the Great Lakes jet segment with weak short waves topping the central Plains upper level ridge.
High pressure will build in from the west on Saturday providing dry and quiet weather across north central Minnesota.
The ongoing convection with this trough currently over central KY is shown by the latest HRRR to dissipate as daytime heating is lost, and very little of its remaining precip is expected to enter our area. However, the vort max induced by this convection is expected to be over our area tomorrow, along with a surface cold front becoming positioned across KY. With mostly cloudy skies expected, highs should be cooler, in the mid 80s north to lower 90s south.
155 PM MDT FRI AUG 5 2016 18Z water vapor imagery and RAP analysis indicated CWA on northern periphery of 594 dm ridge centered over Texas.
The upper trough that crossed our area yesterday will move off to the east as a narrow ridge axis with drier air arrives. The outflow boundary along with an actual cold front will arrive across Mid Tn tonight into Saturday, bringing increasing shower and thunderstorm coverage. Saturday will bring high coverage of showers and thunderstorms, although there will be rain free times, allowing temperatures to reach the lower 90s most areas, except mid 80s Plateau.
646 PM EDT FRI AUG 5 2016 Aviation A less humid and slightly cooler air mass will drop over Southwest Michigan tonight.
The weather pattern across the southeast will be primarily driven by the upper ridge off to our west over the next few days.
351 PM EDT FRI AUG 5 2016 No high impact weather tonight or Saturday as high pressure begins to move into the area.
That said, PWATs will still be around or slightly above normal through the weekend and an active storm pattern will continue despite the upper high edging further west into southeast New Mexico.
Strong mid-level ridging remains centered over N TX, while a weak upper level low has minimal impact.
332 PM CDT FRI AUG 5 2016 Quiet weather is expected over the next 24 hours as a ridge of high pressure extends from the Canadian Prairies into the I-29 corridor. Lows overnight will be in the 50s with highs on Saturday will range from the upper 70s in the Missouri Valley as well as east of I29 to the lower 80s along and north of I-90 in southeast South Dakota.
The high pressure ridge is not going to budge over the next day, nor are thicknesses going to change much, so temperatures will be rather similar tomorrow at around 4-5 degrees above normal. Thanks to the persistence of the high, we will continue to watch the monsoonal moisture plume bend well into NM and up into CO. High pressure aloft will slowly weaken and shift east Sun-Tue in the face of an upper trough moving from the west coast toward the inter-mountain region.
There is a lot of dry air to overcome in the lower-levels, below 700 hPa. However, there is dry air in the lower-levels below 700 hPa that will complicate matters. Satellite continues to show plentiful monsoon moisture across the 4 corners region that will drift to the northeast/clockwise around the southern plains ridge. Some dry air in the low levels initially however models top down saturate quickly with Saturday morning into the afternoon seeing a swath of showers to lift across the CWA.
Clear skies, Breezy northerly winds, and strong cold air advection will keep temperatures cold across the ArkLaMiss today, with temperatures struggling to make it at above freezing across much of the area.
Prominent 85h thermal ridge will push high temps to about 13-17 degrees above by Tue, record high temps will be jeopardy. Said zonal flow finally amplifies Thur-Fri with a shrtwv trof (GFS) or a low (ECMWF) to the w.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 28 12 32 18 / 0 0 10 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 24 7 26 13 / 20 0 10 10 Oak Ridge, TN 26 9 29 14 / 10 0 10 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 21 5 23 7 / 50 0 10 10 TN.
The coldest airmass of the season will continue to build into the region today as Arctic high pressure builds southeastward. Highs today will struggle to reach the freezing mark across northern portions of the area. The high builds closer tonight with temps dropping rapidly.
511 AM EST Sat Jan 7 2017 Satellite imagery and surface observations place a cold front from near the Big Bend of Florida southwest through the central Gulf of Mexico. The northwest wind shift will reach the lower Keys between 3PM and 6PM, just behind the broken line of showers and storms. Thereafter, high pressure initially across the southeastern United States will broaden and maintain strength across the Western North Atlantic.