Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Earlier widespread stratus and some fog north has evolved into a broken to at times overcast cumulus, which has kept temperatures down a bit into the lower to mid 70s near Hwy 20 corridor. Lows should be at or a bit warmer than those of this morning, but still quite comfortable and mainly in the 50s with light southerly winds. Friday, we're looking at another surge of warm advection on breezy southerly winds, as the pressure gradient strengthens a bit between high pressure to the east and a trough of low pressure approaching the Northern Plains. This along with abundant sunshine will push highs into the lower to middle 80s. However, if surface dew points remain in the lower 60s this could mitigate some of the threat.
632 PM CDT Thu Sep 24 2020 155 PM CDT An upper level trough across NE IA into southern WI will continue to dampen as it moves across northern IL and northwest IN this evening and overnight. High temperatures will be slightly warmer than Thursday's highs thanks to low level warm advection in southwesterly winds under the strengthening upper ridge.
/issued 245 PM CDT Thu Sep 24 2020/ WV imagery shows an upper trough extending from the Texas coast up thru the MS Valley, leaving West Texas and Southeast New Mexico under meridional flow aloft. Over the next few days, models are in line in strengthening the trough, and taking it to the ArklaTex by 06Z Sun.
859 PM CDT Thu Sep 24 2020 Clouds will continue to spread in from the west tonight in advance of an upper level low pressure trough. The upper ridge will collapse behind the front with more zonal flow aloft for Friday as high pressure builds in at the sfc.
high pressure off the East coast will maintain fair dry weather through at least Friday.
Afternoon winds for this period could see gusts across the Basin reach into the low 40s with decent afternoon mixing.
Dry weather persists for the foreseeable future with temperatures that remain 5 to 10 degrees warmer than normal. The current 500mb pattern shows a broad trough over the northwestern US, directing the ridge south over our area. High temperatures are forecast to reach the low 100s across the lower deserts today.
This low continues to be the main driver of our weather in eastern kentucky. The downslope flow that prevails at the lower levels has suppressed the moisture enough to keep the better precip from progressing further into the area. The better chances for rain will be late tonight and tomorrow morning when the low moves closer to our area and supplies the better moisture. Dry weather will return by tomorrow evening as the upper level trough lifts and starts to move out to the east, pushing Beta's remnants out along with it. Lows tonight and tomorrow will be mild in the upper 50s, with highs tomorrow in the low to mid 70s.
658 PM EDT Thu Sep 24 2020 Mostly dry and warm weather is expected through the weekend under high pressure.
Our 1000-700 mb layer flow has turned southerly over the past 24 hours, thanks in part to the northeast movement of Post-Tropical Cyclone Beta across west-central and northern Alabama this evening. Against the backdrop of rich and deep moisture, a small-scale trough is lifting north across the Keys. Later Friday, that trough will move northward to Central Florida. Winds will gradually veer from southeast to south overnight, as a northward-moving trough cross the waters.
As of 20Z Thursday afternoon a midlevel ridge axis continues to amplify across the southern and central Plains. For Friday, another mostly sunny and warm day is expected as the midlevel ridge axis remains across the southern Plains. Highs are likely to reach the mid 80s in east central KS and the low 90s across north central KS.
MVFR conditions are expected to prevail through much of the evening and the early overnight hours depending on location with improvement towards VFR expected due to a scattering out and lifting of the lower cloud decks overnight and Friday morning from the south. Dry air and fall like weather will be in the area before two cold fronts will be passing through the area.
720 PM EDT Thu Sep 24 2020 High pressure extending from the Lower Ohio River Valley to the Southeast U.
957 PM CDT Thu Sep 24 2020 The remnant mid-level vorticity lobe associated with Post TC Beta will continue to eject rapidly northeastward into eastern TN this evening, ahead of a trough currently crossing the TN Valley. However, the systems low-level cyclone is predicted to become decoupled from the mid-level circulation, and will drift very slowly northeastward across northeastern AL/southeastern TN while degenerating into an open trough. Although visibility reductions will likely be confined to lingering pockets of light- moderate rain, a low stratus deck could potentially result in temporary obscurations in the higher terrain areas of northeast AL and southern TN that will likely persist beyond sunrise. With a bit more long wave solar insolation making it through the cloud deck, high temperatures Friday should rise into the low/mid 70s.
High pressure off the East coast will maintain fair dry weather through at least Friday.
855 PM CDT Thu Sep 24 2020 Thunderstorms popping up along to ahead of the cold front across north central ND so added in thunder there for this evening. Otherwise the cold front continues to push southeast across western ND. UPDATE Cold front moving through western North Dakota last couple of hours. At the surface, a warm front was currently located near the Missouri River valley over central North Dakota. Winds will generally be out of the south with the highest sustained values around 15 to 20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph. A trailing cold front will then sweep across the state tonight, bringing with it some chances of showers. Behind the cold front winds will shift to westerly, with breezy conditions ramping up once again by early Friday afternoon, a bit stronger than today.
533 PM MDT Thu Sep 24 2020 The cold front dropped southeast through the area today producing northwest wind gusts to the 50s in the windier spots. The High Wind Warning looks to retire without drama at 7 pm. With a broad upper trough moving in over the area, expect cooler Canadian air to dominate.
942 PM CDT Thu Sep 24 2020 GOES East Nighttime Microphysics imagery showed extensive low clouds over the Midsouth, extending to just east of Little Rock, and to southeast MO and into the lower OH River valley. For the overnight, expect the status quo to prevail, given upstream fetch of clouds over the lower OH River valley and a relatively static back edge of the clouds over central AR. Northeast AR may see a few breaks in the low clouds toward sunrise and will need to be watched for fog potential. If the low clouds were to clear around Memphis, Jackson or Tupelo overnight, dense fog could quickly form. Don't really expect clouds to begin to break up until Friday afternoon as some upper ridging begins to occur across the area.
807 PM EDT Thu Sep 24 2020 High pressure extending from the Lower Ohio River Valley to the Southeast U.
Center of Beta now moving into northeast AL, with a weak trough axis up into east TN, and its associated warm front well south.
654 PM CDT Thu Sep 24 2020 Forcing for ascent in association with a mid-level trough passing across the area will lead to continued shower chances through late afternoon/evening across mainly near and east of the Mississippi River before the wave passes east and transient mid-level ridging spreads across the area overnight. A warm front will lift north across the area overnight with gusty southerly winds and warm temps in the 70s to low 80s on Friday. By late afternoon, a cold front will approach from the west, but dry weather is expected for the area through the daytime hours. For Friday evening, a cold front will be working into the area, washing out as it does.
720 PM CDT Thu Sep 24 2020 Cold front moving through western North Dakota last couple of hours. At the surface, a warm front was currently located near the Missouri River valley over central North Dakota. Winds will generally be out of the south with the highest sustained values around 15 to 20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph. A trailing cold front will then sweep across the state tonight, bringing with it some chances of showers. Behind the cold front winds will shift to westerly, with breezy conditions ramping up once again by early Friday afternoon, a bit stronger than today.
Keeping the low cigs in place through the end of the forecast. Otherwise, cloudy to mostly cloudy and somewhat cooler conditions will continue in the near term with clouds maintaining a narrow daily temperature range.
With the ridge axis moving through the area, winds will become light/variable and any breaks in the clouds may set up the potential for fog development. Weak high pressure at the surface will gradually slide east through the region during the weekend. Aloft, weak ridging will likewise quickly shift east in response to a closed low pressure system lifting northeast out of East Texas.
Weak upper troughing remains just to the east of the forecast area this morning with upper ridging nosing into the central plains. The ridge will be expanding into the state as the day progresses with skies slowly clearing from west to east with time. The ridge will prevail through the end of the period but modeling remains consistent with developing a weak upper low that moves into SE Arkansas by the end of the period. Attention will then be turning to an approaching cold front that will be dropping into the central plains by the end of the period.
257 AM EDT Fri Sep 25 2020 A warm front will cross the region today and early tonight.
140 AM EDT Fri Sep 25 2020 Mostly dry and warm weather is expected through the weekend under high pressure.
Southerly flow ahead of an approaching cold front will allow temperatures to rise close to record levels Friday. A reinforcing shot of cooler air will arrive with another frontal passage, Saturday night, pulling Sundays temperatures closer to normal, in the low to mid 70s.
Quiet weather continues for the short term as high pressure continues to build and moisture continues to be low. 85 feet above predicted levels, so the high tide cycle for tonight could possibly reach 2 feet MSL.
Trough coming onshore in the Pacific NW will flatten out but tight height gradients combined with deep mixing will bring elevated winds to surface Friday. Saturday will be slightly cooler but another near critical to critical fire weather day possible as winds remain elevated through the overnight Friday and Saturday.
333 AM CDT Fri Sep 25 2020 Early this morning, the forecast area remains in southerly low level flow and warm air advection ahead of a frontal boundary and associated trough draped southward from the Red River Valley of the North to near Huron, SD to the NE panhandle. Boundary layer mixing of much warmer mid level air should bring another unseasonably warm day with high temperatures in the mid 70s to upper 80s, warmest where warm air advection lingers longest in northwest IA. Expect another mostly clear evening with winds becoming light as the surface pressure gradient relaxes amidst passing high pressure. Expect one more day of warmer than normal temperatures on Saturday as westerlies aloft and subtle warm air advection coupled with another approaching weak surface front will do little to change the resident warm and dry airmass.
Temperatures have struggled to warm up much today, with readings in the lower to middle 70s acrs the area. Latest UA analysis and WV imagery shows an elongated trough aloft from the Ohio Valley southwest into eastern TX, with dry air in the mid and upper levels. Temperatures will fall to near seasonal values, with lows in the lower to middle 60s. The elongated trough over the region will lift to the northeast through Friday, although a weakness will linger over TX, gradually cutting off into a weak low pres area by Friday night. Temperatures will continue to run near late September normals with highs in the lower 80s Friday and into the middle 80s by Saturday.
400 AM CDT Fri Sep 25 2020 The first of a series of cold fronts will progress through wrn and ncntl Nebraska today. A second stronger Pacific cold front will drop into nrn Nebraska Saturday afternoon. Temperatures tonight lean on the guidance blend plus bias correction which is cooler than the model blend. The cold front passing through the region today will lift back north tonight opening up the warm sector across the region Saturday.
A weak cold front is in the northern panhandle and is expected to move into the forecast area this morning. Temperatures will be warmer on Saturday. The winds turn back to the southwest ahead of another cold front.
By Saturday, while upper-level heights flatten out ahead of a strong upper trough moving across the northern Plains, the 1000-500mb thickness ridge is centered right over the area.
A broad low-amplitude trough over the western CONUS will keep mild conditions in place on Saturday, with temperatures remaining about 10 degrees above normal.
434 AM EDT Fri Sep 25 2020 Mostly dry and warm weather is expected through the weekend under high pressure.
224 AM EDT Fri Sep 25 2020 A warm front will cross the region today and early tonight.
402 AM EDT Fri Sep 25 2020 Broad mid-level ridging extends from near the Bahamas west- southwestward through the Florida Straits and into the southeast Gulf of Mexico. The surface reflection of this ridging is centered near Bermuda and ridges southwest over Florida. A little farther to the north, mid-level troughing and the remnants of Tropical Storm Beta move eastward through the southern Ohio River Valley through the day on Friday.
This will serve to strengthen the southerly flow with appreciable 850/925 waa noted with the more pronounced thermal ridge likely arriving for Saturday.
301 AM CDT Fri Sep 25 2020 Enjoy the warmer temperatures through this weekend.
Light rain showers sustained by northwest upslope flow into the mountains will linger into Saturday morning, subsiding in the afternoon as upper level moisture begins to be cutoff by strengthening ridge over the eastern Pacific. Afternoon highs tomorrow and Saturday will be in the 60s in lower elevations and 50s mountains, while overnight lows will be in the lower 50s to mid 40s in the lower elevations and lower 40s to mid 30s mountains.
On Friday a low level thermal ridge will move across the region and this should lead to afternoon highs in the 80s, with upper 70s to the north. With northerly to northwesterly flow aloft cooler air from Canada will provide a decreasing trend in temperatures throughout this period.
Much cooler temperatures and a better chances of showers spread into the area Weak upper level wave was dropping through Minnesota and WI, heading towards the area this evening. The departure of this wave and approaching deeper northern stream trough will starting sending 850 mb temps soaring, not so much Friday but Saturday looking warmest with highs well into the 80s.
Saturday: Gusty south winds will occur as low pressure moves east into the Midwest and Plains.
257 AM CDT Fri Sep 25 2020 Quiet pattern continues to provide warmer than normal to near record heat across our region. Overnight lows will be similar for tonight as we saw last night, maybe a tad warmer as dewpoints may be a degree or two warmer, especially the farther east you go into the Rolling Plains. Upper level flow over the CONUS is progged to buckle late in the weekend with a ridge over the entirety of the Pacific coast and a sharp trough over the Great Plains. A strong cold front will move quickly southward down the lee of the Rockies as the upper pattern amplifies.
(Today and Saturday) Issued at 355 AM EDT Fri Sep 25 2020 A trough will work its way eastward through our area over the next 24 hours. WAA continues through Saturday, pushing high temperatures a few degrees warmer than Friday.
314 AM EDT Fri Sep 25 2020 Upper trough along the IL/IN border early this morning will continue to dive southeastward today. As the upper trough axis shifts over the region expect rain chances to die down and cloud cover to start scattering out. Slight upper level ridging will remain in place to start the period on Saturday with plenty of dry air in the mid/upper levels.
214 AM MDT Fri Sep 25 2020 Current surface map places cold front through central South Dakota into the Nebraska panhandle. High pressure builds across the area today with dry weather and highs in the 70s. Upper trof swings through the Northern Rockies into the Northern Plains Saturday. with cold front arriving Saturday morning.
911 PM MDT Thu Sep 24 2020 Let expired the High wind and Red Flag warnings as conditions have improved tonight. FGC Previous discussion: The cold front dropped southeast through the area today producing northwest wind gusts to the 50s in the windier spots. The High Wind Warning looks to retire without drama at 7 pm. With a broad upper trough moving in over the area, expect cooler Canadian air to dominate.
Quasi-zonal flow continues in the mid-levels west of the Great Lakes region as indicated by water vapor imagery with troughing over the eastern third of the CONUS. Highs are expect to reach the lower 90's with surface winds gusting to around 20 mph being the highlights of each day.
Clouds will continue to spread in from the west tonight in advance of an upper level low pressure trough. The upper ridge will collapse behind the front with more zonal flow aloft for Friday as high pressure builds in at the sfc.
348 AM MDT Fri Sep 25 2020 Upper ridging will help guide dry weather conditions across the region for today along with lighter winds when compared with yesterday.
510 AM MDT Fri Sep 25 2020 Current surface map places cold front through central South Dakota into the Nebraska panhandle. High pressure builds across the area today with dry weather and highs in the 70s. Upper trof swings through the Northern Rockies into the Northern Plains Saturday. with cold front arriving Saturday morning.
522 AM CDT Fri Sep 25 2020 The first of a series of cold fronts will progress through wrn and ncntl Nebraska today. A second stronger Pacific cold front will drop into nrn Nebraska Saturday afternoon. Temperatures tonight lean on the guidance blend plus bias correction which is cooler than the model blend. The cold front passing through the region today will lift back north tonight opening up the warm sector across the region Saturday.
/issued 402 AM EDT Fri Sep 25 2020/ Broad mid-level ridging extends from near the Bahamas west- southwestward through the Florida Straits and into the southeast Gulf of Mexico. The surface reflection of this ridging is centered near Bermuda and ridges southwest over Florida. A little farther to the north, mid-level troughing and the remnants of Tropical Storm Beta move eastward through the southern Ohio River Valley through the day on Friday.
754 AM EDT Fri Sep 25 2020 Mostly dry and warm weather is expected through the weekend under high pressure.
Keeping the low cigs in place through today, though improving to MVFR. high pressure ridge axis moves across the region, and some breaking up of the llvl clouds will be possible/likely in the west particularly. With the ridge axis moving through the area, winds will become light/variable and any breaks in the clouds may set up the potential for fog development. Weak high pressure at the surface will gradually slide east through the region during the weekend. Aloft, weak ridging will likewise quickly shift east in response to a closed low pressure system lifting northeast out of East Texas.
958 AM EDT Fri Sep 25 2020 Sfc analysis reveals weak low pressure over southeast TN this morning. Upper trough along the IL/IN border early this morning will continue to dive southeastward today. As the upper trough axis shifts over the region expect rain chances to die down and cloud cover to start scattering out. Slight upper level ridging will remain in place to start the period on Saturday with plenty of dry air in the mid/upper levels.
Expect breezy conditions today and Saturday as a weak trough passes to our north. High pressure with dry conditions and daytime temperatures about 5 to 15 degrees above normal will continue into the weekend. Beyond the weekend, model trends are shifting cooler, though dry conditions are anticipated to persist.
Additionally, an expansive, low stratus deck over the Lower Mississippi Valley and Tennessee Valley is currently pushing through southeastern MO and southern IL. This will lead to west/southwesterly flow in the lower atmosphere ushering in unseasonable warmth. NAEFS and EPS guidance have 850mb temperatures in the upper-teens this afternoon and the low-20s Saturday afternoon, which is at least at the 99. This will translate to surface temperatures in the low-80s this afternoon and in the mid- to upper-80s on Saturday - 5-15 degrees above normal for late September. The lack of moisture in the low levels will keep skies mostly clear, allowing for ample surface heating.
500 AM MDT Fri Sep 25 2020 Broad trough over the western CONUS will be the driving force and focus for changing weather today and into the weekend. A strong jet along the base of the trough will nose into the Northern Rockies this afternoon, allowing the pressure gradient to tighten aloft. The trough axis swings across the Rockies on Saturday, but any precipitation tied to this system remains well to our north. Localized critical conditions will likely develop again Saturday, though cooler temperatures and increased RH will also dip into the northern borders of our CWA. The northern tier of the CWA should see a larger drop in high temps Saturday as they lie on the fringe of a cold front sinking southward.
Max temps will be in the upper 80s along the coast and low 90s inland, with an overnight low in the low to mid 70s. Diurnal convection patterns return, with precipitation coverage being the highest in the SE TAF sites and with the earliest start times.
The low clouds and fog will slowly dissipate from NW to SE through early afternoon with conditions becoming VFR with time. Weak upper troughing remains just to the east of the forecast area this morning with upper ridging nosing into the central plains. The ridge will be expanding into the state as the day progresses with skies slowly clearing from west to east with time. The ridge will prevail through the end of the period but modeling remains consistent with developing a weak upper low that moves into SE Arkansas by the end of the period. Attention will then be turning to an approaching cold front that will be dropping into the central plains by the end of the period.
With mid-level winds in the 20-30 kt range this afternoon along and north of Highway 50, expect deep mixing to produce frequent gusts over 25 mph over the higher terrain of Lake, Chaffee and Teller Counties, while lower elevations along the Arkansas River from Salida to Canon City will see some gap flow enhanced gusts of 30 to 35 mph.
631 AM CDT Fri Sep 25 2020 Early this morning, the forecast area remains in southerly low level flow and warm air advection ahead of a frontal boundary and associated trough draped southward from the Red River Valley of the North to near Huron, SD to the NE panhandle. Boundary layer mixing of much warmer mid level air should bring another unseasonably warm day with high temperatures in the mid 70s to upper 80s, warmest where warm air advection lingers longest in northwest IA. Expect another mostly clear evening with winds becoming light as the surface pressure gradient relaxes amidst passing high pressure. Expect one more day of warmer than normal temperatures on Saturday as westerlies aloft and subtle warm air advection coupled with another approaching weak surface front will do little to change the resident warm and dry airmass.
A trough will work its way eastward through our area over the next 24 hours. WAA continues through Saturday, pushing high temperatures a few degrees warmer than Friday.
607 AM EDT Fri Sep 25 2020 A warm front will cross the region today and early tonight.
Not much change to temperatures across central NV on Saturday as the trough only clips northern NV.