Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
951 AM EST Thu Nov 16 2017 Early visible satellite photographs show skies are partly to mostly cloudy with temperatures only in the lower to mid 70s. Surface wise, an extensive area of high pressure is centered over the nations midsection, with a ridge axis reaching through the southeast United States and down the Sunshine State. In addition, a stationary trough extends from just offshore of the extreme southeast Florida coast southward into the Straits of Florida. Although considerable dry air will hold in place above a stable layer near 925 mb, a low level north to northeast trajectory will allow considerable stratus to track southward off the south Florida mainland and into at least a good portion of the Lower and Middle keys.
The front is expected to stall today, then lift back northward tonight into Friday as a warm front, as moisture levels increase and temperatures become milder. A weak ridge of high pres wl cont to bring drier and cooler air into much of the region.
Friday is a transition day across our region as a trough of low pressure moves out of the Inter Mountain West resulting in strong lee side cyclogenesis across the Plains. This deepening area of low pressure will contrast with strong surface ridging across the southeast U. and the end result will be a very strong pressure gradient setting up across the Southern Plains into the Lower Mississippi Valley.
Showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue through Thursday night with accumulating snow across the Cascades, as an upper level trough moves across the region. Showers will decrease Friday as a weak ridge begins to build over the area.
High pressure will bring drier conditions to the area this weekend. The precipitation is expected to taper off to showers on Friday morning as the upper low currently situated off the PAC NW coast pushes inland across the PAC NW. High pressure is progged to build over central CA by Friday Night and bring dry conditions to the area for the weekend.
A trough of low pressure at the surface will deepen along the lee of the Rockies today as westerly down slope flow improves across eastern Colorado and western Kansas. Based on the 24 hour temperature change in the 900mb to 850mb level the highs today should easily climb back into the 60s. Highs in the lower 70s still appear likely near the Colorado border. Models on Friday are in decent agreement with a cold front dropping south across Nebraska during the day as an upper level trough approaches from the west.
The center of the high will be centered within the MS Valley Region at daybreak and retreat eastward into the OH Valley by early evening. The high pressure center will continue to slide eastward tonight and into the Appalachians by 12Z Friday, with surface winds veering to southeasterly across the CWA. So highs will be in the mid 50s to mid 60s during the day, then temps to continue rising through the evening hours as main cold front approaches. This will drag strong cold front through forecast area. Ahead of cold front will see increasing coverage of showers and isolated thunderstorms.
A cold front will sweep from northwest to southeast across the state Friday afternoon with another reinforcing front Friday night. A few inches of snow accumulation is likely across the higher peaks of the Tusas and Sangre de Cristo mountains. Much cooler temperatures will result areawide over the weekend. West winds will be on the increase today ahead of an upper level trough moving ashore over the PACNW.
Seeings some temperatures dropping into the upper 30s, but given the dew points across the area, and those advecting in to the area, do not expect temperatures to get close to freezing. Temperatures have risen to above freezing. There may be a few spots locally with brief freezing rain or sleet since some dew points remain below freezing. Models agree that the upper closed low will drift southeast in the Gulf before becoming a more open wave by the end of the period.
VFR TAFs tonight under clear skies and with very light north winds as high pressure settles over the area. /issued 328 PM CST Mon Jan 8 2018/ SHORT TERM (Tonight through Tuesday Night): Deep South Texas will be in between an upper low over the NC Gulf and a large storm system plowing into California and the Inter-mountain West. High pressure at the surface and aloft settles over our region the next 24 hours continuing the very pleasant weather. Temperatures rebound into the lower maybe the mid 70s with little to no increase in humidity but much less wind so it will feel warmer in the afternoon.
Elsewhere, looking at mainly mid clouds/filtered sunshine, and with the return flow/low level warm advection during the day, should see temperatures back up into the low/mid 30s. Strong southwest low level jet (50 knots at 850MB) will continue to pump milder air into lower Michigan tonight, as 925 mb temps rise at or above 5 C by Wednesday morning, along with the narrow 850-700 mb theta-e ridge axis arriving. A short period of light freezing rain appears likely before temps warm up sufficiently above freezing toward the noon hour everywhere, and into the 40s late in the afternoon.
1239 AM EST Tue Jan 9 2018 A compact and rather weak upper level disturbance and a moist southwest flow at low levels will combine to maintain the threat of freezing drizzle over the Laurel Highlands through the overnight hours, while generally dry conditions are expected elsewhere.
The good news is that temperatures are expected to remain above freezing across much of the area. However, there could still be a few localized spots where temperatures hovering at/near freezing could cause some black ice for the morning commute.
1259 AM EST Tue Jan 9 2018 A low pressure system exits overnight.
Right now, models show an increase in mid/highs clouds in warm air advection ahead of low pressure tracking through the Northern Rockies.
VFR conditions will prevail as high pressure builds over the region. Cool and tranquil weather will persist over the short term in wake of the cold front. Clear skies and light winds overnight will allow temperatures to drop into the low to mid 40s tonight. Afternoon temperatures on Tuesday will be similar to today to a few degrees cooler, with highs in the mid 60s to lower 70s.
318 AM CST Tue Jan 9 2018 Main concern out of the gate this morning continues to involve fog and freezing fog for areas primarily east of Route 65.
Given the lighter flow and further airmass modification with warmer H925 temperatures tomorrow, surface temperatures should be similar to 1-2F degrees warmer.
354 AM EST Tue Jan 9 2018 Corrected Watch/Warning/Advisory section Warmer air will continue to surge into the area over the course of the next couple days. High pressure situated across the area this morning will slide to the east today and allow south winds to develop tonight.
The primary short term focus is on the fog/low clouds/drizzle potential tonight, as freezing temperatures are possible during the overnight and early Tuesday morning hours. There is good model agreement on some type of low cloud or fog, but it is more difficult to ascertain exactly which, putting a a bit of a hedge on that freezing fog/drizzle potential. With the warming comes moistening, so there may be more cloud than sun during this time frame, but any pcpn chances remain small, until the end of the short term, as they start to crank up into the high chance range Wed night, ahead of the big late week system. The period will start off with strong southwesterly flow aloft ahead of a deep trough over the center of the nation.
/issued 248 PM CST Mon Jan 8 2018/ The upper level ridge over the western US will begin to break down today and move east. A progressive upper level low currently in the eastern Pacific will be the next source for eventful West Texas weather. This system will initially induce surface lee cyclogenesis/troughing on Tuesday afternoon. The upper low will developed a closed height contour as it moves across the desert southwest from Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning. Not much in the way of measurable precipitation can be expected either with the center of the low moving close to the southwestern Panhandle.
A relatively mild night with cloud cover and warmer than normal airmass in place.
1228 AM EST Tue Jan 9 2018 Weak high pressure will build into the region tonight, but will move quickly east on Tuesday.
354 AM CST Tue Jan 9 2018 Latest water vapor imagery loop shows broad ridging across the Northern Rockies and into the Northern High Plains.
Mostly clear skies and a lingering dry atmosphere will lead to another pleasant day across South Texas, with temperatures warming into the lower 70s across much of the area. Warmed temperatures above guidance following the warmer temperatures observed yesterday, and also due to warmer temps around H95. For tonight, temperatures should again dip into the 40s inland, while along the coast, temperatures should only fall into the low to mid 50s. Wednesday, warmed temperatures into the mid to upper 70s as southwest flow at H85 develops ahead of the next approaching trough.
310 AM EST Tue Jan 9 2018 High pressure will build over the region Today, shifting off the East Coast on Wednesday.
Much warmer air will move into central Indiana mid-week, along with a chance for rain. A low pressure system will bring additional precipitation chances late week into the first half of the weekend. Fog will be an issue tonight with relatively warmer air and a continued cold ground.
315 AM EST Tue Jan 9 2018 There will be increased moisture and a moderation in temperature associated with an onshore flow between the ridge shifting off the East Coast and low pressure moving from the Lower Mississippi River Valley into the northeast Gulf of Mexico today.
H5 ridge will continue to crest over the region tonight going into Tuesday. Ridge will become more zonal as the day progresses Tuesday. Models shift a lee-side trough slowly off the Front Range on Tuesday. This will be off of overnight lows tonight that will range from the upper 20s to the low 30s in spots.
344 AM CST Tue Jan 9 2018 Today and tonight: Despite mid level ridging over the forecast area in the short term, the cold core low over the northern Gulf of Mexico will continue to influence the weather.
Low visibilities have already formed across southern and southwest Indiana and there is a strong signal that as the evening progresses and the low level inversion sets up, clouds will continue to lower, especially across southern Indiana and north central Kentucky. The best chance for sub-freezing temperatures is across southern Indiana where readings 29-31 are forecast. Expect highs to rise only to the low 40s.
Weak high pressure will slide to the east by Tuesday allowing warmer, more moist air likely low clouds to come back along with fog risks the next 36 hours.
144 AM EST Tue Jan 9 2018 There will be increased moisture and a moderation in temperature associated with an onshore flow between the ridge shifting off the East Coast and low pressure moving from the Lower Mississippi River Valley into the northeast Gulf of Mexico today.
356 AM CST Tue Jan 9 2018 Areas of fog and freezing fog ongoing this morning primarily across far E OK and western AR.
Much warmer weather will arrive beyond midweek with highs more than 20 degrees above normal. With southwesterly upslope and temperatures slightly below freezing along with very low ceilings, a bit of freezing drizzle may remain in the terrain. This is allowing for temperatures to remain just slightly above freezing in most spots. Going into the overnight and Tuesday, high pressure gradually migrates overhead. The combination of some insolation and weak thermal advection should allow for highs above freezing for most locations. Fries A welcome January thaw is predicted for this period as southerly winds pump warmer air into our neck of the woods.
Lowland snow accumulations are not expected through mid week with temperatures remaining at or above freezing.
Dense Fog this Morning then Chance of Wintry Precipitation Areas of dense fog and freezing fog will impact much of the Missouri Ozarks through early this morning before gradually lifting by late morning. With temperatures hovering near freezing the potential for black ice will persist through sunrise. Could also see patchy drizzle develop tonight but temperatures will remain above freezing. Southerly winds will continue to increase into Wednesday in advance of a pronounced upper level trough coming across the Rockies.
1028 PM MST Mon Jan 8 2018 Good deal of mid/high level cloudiness across the region today as upper level ridge shifts eastward through the Rockies. With ridge east of the area overnight and Wednesday, several weak troughs embedded within increasing swly flow move across the region, bringing a chance of light snow to the mountains along the Continental Divide late tonight and through the day Tuesday. Overall, precip into Tuesday evening looks rather showery and light, and with snow levels running 9k feet or above, only an inch or two of accumulation is expected over the higher peaks by Tue evening. Clouds and increasing winds will keep overnight mins on the mild side most areas, and well-mixed locations in the lee of the eastern mountains will stay above freezing through most of the night.
This is good, since some of the precipitation may fall as light freezing rain. Behind the front, strong north to northwest winds will bring in much cooler weather, and wind chills will plummet.
323 AM CST Tue Jan 9 2018 (Today and Tonight) Much warmer across West Central Texas today as an upper level ridge shifts across the area. Highs will climb into the low to mid 70s with south winds starting to increase.
109 AM EST Tue Jan 9 2018 Arctic high pressure will move off the U. A trough will persist in the nearby Atlantic early this week with weak low pressure remaining south of the area.
An upper level low along the northern Gulf coast will slide eastward overnight. At the surface, a warm front extends eastward along the coast and just offshore. On the backside of this low we'll mostly be under synoptic scale descent through the period, resulting in low rain chances. Wednesday PoPs in this area will only be slight chance and be driven in the low levels by the easterly flow and weak seabreeze circulation. The seabreeze is a result of warming temperatures over land and much cooler temperatures in Apalachee Bay. Expect highs to climb into the low to mid 70s Tuesday and Wednesday, with overnight lows in the upper 50s to low 60s.
In addition to the fog, have updated weather grids late in the week into the weekend to better reflect typical patterns during winter p-type transitions with fully developed cyclones and southeastward invading arctic airmasses.
1108 PM EST Mon Jan 8 2018 A low pressure system exits overnight.
1116 PM CST Mon Jan 8 2018 The primary short-term concern is with potential fog transitioning to freezing fog beginning this evening into the overnight hours. The primary hazard associated with this setup is with the potential for slick roadways early Tuesday morning across the affected areas as surface temperatures return to below freezing tonight. Overnight lows Tuesday into Wednesday continue to look to stay above freezing as warm advection persists over the area. By Wednesday afternoon, high temperatures will rise into the mid to upper 50s across most areas, with highs in the lower 50s across northern Missouri.
Temperatures are also at or just below freezing, so freezing fog is also possible. A trough/low off the southern California coast will move quickly to the east today into Wednesday, as a strong jet approaches the Pacific Northwest. In advance of this system, low pressure over eastern Colorado will deepen quickly Wednesday afternoon and night. Precipitation with the a "lead" trough should mainly be confined to northern Oklahoma Wednesday evening/night.
Temperatures this afternoon warmed above freezing at almost all locations. This is about 5 to 15 degrees cooler than last night. With a cooler start, more cloud cover, and a change in wind direction, don't think the opportunity will be there to get quite as warm.
Even warmer temperatures are expected for Wednesday as surface winds increase from the south ahead of an approaching storm system. A deep trough will then progress across the central U.
1150 PM EST Mon Jan 8 2018 A compact and rather weak upper level disturbance and a moist southwest flow at low levels will combine to maintain the threat of freezing drizzle over the Laurel Highlands through the overnight hours, while generally dry conditions are expected elsewhere.
1019 PM MST Mon Jan 8 2018 Western CONUS ridge continues to amplify and push east as a vigorous NE PAC upper trough shifts east. This trough will split as the southern stream feature closes and then ejects into the plains Wed. Forecast models continue to trend the main sfc cyclone with this system further south, supporting a faster more prominent northern stream influence locally. Flow pattern will revert back to eastern CONUS trough/western ridge, with the FA on the cold side of the active baroclinic zone by the end of the week. WAA will continue as the ridge pushes east. Expect passing mid and high clouds with lows mainly in the 20s, warmer in favored BH downsloping areas. Strong cold front will shift across the area Wed, with snow expected.
A cold low pressure system will bring more widespread rain and snow to the area later Tuesday through early Wednesday.
/issued 704 PM EST Mon Jan 8 2018/ A weakening low pressure system will continue to slowly drift towards Florida during the overnight hours and into tomorrow. That combined with troughing moving into the area will bring plenty of cloud cover with isolated to scattered shower chances throughout the day. Weak ridging will give way to troughing across the coastal waters through Wed night/Thurs. Next cold front then moves through with stronger high pressure building into the area behind it.
Dense fog (freezing fog) is expected to create LIFR conditions at the northwest Arkansas TAf sites overnight and into Tuesday morning.
1149 AM MDT Sun Oct 29 2017 Current surface analysis shows low pressure over central Manitoba, with warm front extending south-southwest into the Northern Plains and a cold front stretching across western ND into MT. Upper level analysis continues to show fast northwest flow across the region between trough over the eastern US and a ridge along the west coast. Temps are mild early this morning ahead of the cold front, ranging from the upper 30s to lower 50s. Cold front will race southeast across the area this morning, with northwesterly winds developing and increasing through the late morning and afternoon hours. Temperature will drop enough across the higher northern Black Hills for some snowfall this afternoon, but any accumulations should generally be an inch or less.
1207 PM CDT Sun Oct 29 2017 Mild weather today ahead of a cold front which moves into the area this afternoon. The cold front also ushers in cooler temps, highs Monday only in the 40s again.
A pair of systems will bring increasing clouds and cooler temperatures to start the week.
This combined with weak lift in the low levels led to isolated flurries, graupel, drizzle, snow pellets at times across the area. Once the clouds clear and winds relax, plan on very good radiational cooling conditions and temperatures will drop quickly into the lower 30s. With this in mind and in coordination with surrounding offices, will issue a Freeze Warning for areas mainly east of I-65 in Kentucky where the greatest confidence of prolonged sub-freezing temperatures is. After a cold start, temperatures will warm quickly Monday as southwest winds increase ahead of another cold front passage. Monday night's lows will fall again into the lower/middle 30s.
301 PM CDT Sun Oct 29 2017 Southwest winds will develop throughout the area tonight as our next cold front approaches from the north. The wind should keep temperatures well above freezing and keep frost from being much of a concern for a change. The 12Z guidance clears the area more rapidly from the north Monday night which will result in temperatures into the lower 30s over portions of the area and a frost concern as well.
Lingering low level moisture and upslope NW flow is producing scattered drizzle, freezing drizzle, and light snow showers mainly across the higher elevations of the mountains above 2500 feet. Temperatures begin to rebound on Monday as the longwave trough exits to the northeast and zonal flow sets up.
/issued 1027 AM CDT Sun Oct 29 2017/ Clear skies and chilly temperatures continue across the region this morning, as high pressure at the sfc and nw flow aloft continue to dominate the region's weather. Upper-ridge to persist through Monday allowing for mostly clear skies areawide.
405 PM CDT Sun Oct 29 2017 An extremely dry afternoon as dew points have mixed out into the lower to middle 20s and. Texas has fallen under the subsident western leg Ohio Valley upper troughing. interior middle 40 minimum temperatures with upper 50s closer to coast (or 10 to 15 degrees warmer than last night).
/ISSUED 1057 AM CDT Sun Oct 29 2017/ A frosty morning where a couple of city minimum temperature records fell and our northeastern neighbors surrounding Lake Livingston reached freezing (or slightly below freezing) for several hours.
Thereafter, a series of storm systems will bring cooler temperatures and wet weather to the area during late week. A weak upper disturbance located over the NERN Pacific was positioned south of an upper ridge over the Gulf of Alaska Sunday afternoon.
252 PM MDT Sun Oct 29 2017 A Canadian cold front will bring areas of snow to the north and spread south along and near the Continental divide through the Absaroka and Wind River mountains and over the Bighorn mountains with lighter snowfall over the Bighorn and Wind River Basins, Johnson, and Natrona counties and the Owl Creek and Bridger ranges. Areas of snow in the lower elevations will be generally an inch or two at best with 3 to 6 inches above 8500 over the mountains. Across the southwest brisk northeast winds will develop behind the cold front.
A weakening low pressure system is expected to bring isolated to scattered showers Monday night from Tucson eastward.
414 PM EDT Sun Oct 29 2017 Latest WPC analysis indicates a cold front draped down the eastern seaboard, extending down toward the Bahamas. This pattern will continue to draw in dry and cooler air from the north into our CWA. Maximum temperatures on Monday will struggle to reach the low to mid 70s, 10 to 15 degrees below normal for this time of year. Maximum temperatures will recover to the low to mid 80s from mid to late week, near seasonal norms.
136 PM EDT Sun Oct 29 2017 Gusty northwest winds around 25 knots as high pressure builds into area. A strong cold front will create northweest winds 25 gust to 30 knots and seas up to 10 feet offshore producing hazardous marine conditions today into tonight and small craft should remain in port until conditions improve. The high pressure center is expected to move through the region Monday weaken then into the Western Atlantic by mid week with winds and seas subsiding and becoming NE-E. Strong Canadian high pressure will build into the region with a very dry and cool airmass.
1229 PM CDT Sun Oct 29 2017 An upper level ridge will be building into the region today and winds will shift to the southwest and west. This will not last long as another cold front will be moving through tonight and early morning Monday.
1221 PM CDT Sun Oct 29 2017 Hazardous Weather: None Aloft: NW flow conts with a Wrn ridge/Ern trof. The ridge will exit the region today as the trof drops into the Nrn Plns. Surface: Low pres associated with the trof was approaching Lk Winnipeg. A warm front extended S from ND-OK while the cold front surging into MT/ND. The warm front will move E across the CWA this morning while the cold front conts surging S. Substantially warmer than yesterday (10-15F). Most areas along and S of I-80 could remain in the low-mid 40s. In addition to the much cooler temperatures, the northwest wind will pick up and it will feel colder again.