Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
410 AM CST TUE JAN 26 2016 COLD FRONT HAS NEARLY CLEARED ALL OF OUR CWA EXCEPT FOR OUR FAR SE PARISHES IN N CNTRL LA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS LARGE SCALE TROF OVER THE CNTRL CONUS AND A SHORT WAVE OVER NM WITH DEEP SW FLOW ALOFT KEEPING THE PACIFIC MOISTURE PIPELINE ACTIVE OVER OUR REGION. THIS WILL KEEP CLOUD COVER BLANKETING MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY EVEN AS RAIN GRADUALLY BEGINS TO WORK ITS WAY EWD WITH THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT. HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL ONLY REACH INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S IN THIS POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS DROPPING TO NEAR/BELOW FREEZING AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUING THROUGH MID WEEK.
532 AM EST TUE JAN 26 2016 COLD FRONT AND SHOWERS PUSH EAST TODAY.
A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM KESF TO THE COAST NEAR SABINE PASS (KRPE). A STRONG COLD FRONT IS PUSHING THROUGH SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA WITH RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. RAIN WILL LINGER THROUGH TONIGHT WITH BREEZY NORTH WINDS AND TEMPERATURES HEADING FOR THE LOWER 40S TO UPPER 30S. A LIGHT FREEZE WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR MANY AREAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS WINDS DIMINISH WITH CLEARING SKIES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.
WV imagery shows an upper trough over central NM, set to merge w/SW flow aloft over West Texas and Southeast New Mexico later this morning.
554 AM EST TUE JAN 26 2016 A PASSING COLD FRONT WILL BRING RAIN CHANCES TODAY FOLLOWED BY PERIODIC SNOW SHOWER CHANCES AND SEASONALLY COLD TEMPERATURES THE REST OF THE WEEK. BEFORE SUNRISE THERE MAY STILL BE SOME VERY ISOLATED VALLEY LOCATIONS ACROSS GARRETT COUNTY WHERE COLDER TEMPERATURES HAVE YET TO BE SCOURED OUT IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OR MIXED WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT IN SHOWERS. BUT ELSEWHERE LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING AT THIS POINT. WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MORNING BEFORE THE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO CROSS THE FORECAST AREA AROUND NOON. WHICH IS PROGGED TO BE EAST OF THE RIDGES BY EVENING. SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE RIDGES AND ALONG/NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80. BUT WILL DROP AS FAR SOUTH AS PITTSBURGH WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH PASSES OVERHEAD.
A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WEST MUCH OF THIS WEEK BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS AND A GRADUAL WARMING TREND.
LATEST IR IMAGERY OVERLAID WITH MODEL STREAMLINE ANALYSIS AS OF 10 AM DEPICTS GRADUAL AMPLIFICATION OF A POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH EXTENDING FROM MINNESOTA SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWESTERN OLD MEXICO. AT THE SURFACE AND IN THE LOWER LEVELS. THE AXIS OF NEAR 1030 MB RIDGING HAS NOW PULLED EASTWARD FROM 24 HOURS PRIOR AND IS NEAR 32N 73W IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS TO JUST OFF THE TEXAS GULF COAST FROM 998 MB LOW PRESSURE NEAR LAKE HURON. TEMPERATURES HAVE REACHED THE LOWER TO MID 70S ACROSS THE ISLANDS. HEIGHT FALLS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH THE RIDGING TO THE NORTHEAST WILL ALLOW FOR BOUNDARY LAYER WARMING AND MOISTENING DUE TO WARM THERMAL ADVECTION THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
709 AM EST TUE JAN 26 2016 LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING MAY BRING A SPIT OF DRIZZLE OR FLURRIES. LL THERMAL TROUGHING DOES NOT REACH SUFFICIENT INTENSITY UNTIL THIS EVENING TIME W/APCH AND PASSAGE OF UPSTREAM SECONDARY DROPPING THROUGH WRN MN ATTM TO TO POINT OF ACTIVATING POTENTIAL LK EFFECT -SHSN. AFTERNOON WAA SHOULD PUSH HIGHS INTO THE LOW 30S DESPITE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
546 AM CST TUE JAN 26 2016 UPPER RIDGING OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE HIGH PLAINS TODAY AND TONIGHT. EXPECT THE LOW STRATUS TO LINGER THROUGH AT LEAST THIS AFTERNOON.
953 AM EST TUE JAN 26 2016 HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL EXTEND INTO THE REGION TODAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION TONIGHT AND MOVE THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY.
BUT WILL KEEP THE FREEZING FOG ADVISORY AS-IS SINCE IT IS NOT SO MUCH VISIBILITY-RELATED AS BLACK-ICE RELATED. A SHIFT TO SOUTHERLY WIND WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM STRONGLY FROM TUE AND WED HIGHS SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING TO TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO 40 DEG BY THU. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE WARMER THAN TUE MORNING LOWS WITH THE CLOUD COVER LATE TONIGHT.
THESE SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 52 32 46 27 / 100 40 10 0 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 47 30 41 23 / 100 60 10 0 OAK RIDGE, TN 48 28 41 23 / 100 50 10 0 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 45 30 37 21 / 90 60 10 0.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH ITS AXIS NEARLY OVERHEAD WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER FOR TODAY AND TOMORROW.
A STRONG COLD FRONT IS PUSHING THROUGH SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA WITH RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. RAIN WILL LINGER THROUGH TONIGHT WITH BREEZY NORTH WINDS AND TEMPERATURES HEADING FOR THE LOWER 40S TO UPPER 30S. A LIGHT FREEZE WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR MANY AREAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS WINDS DIMINISH WITH CLEARING SKIES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.
High pressure will strengthen over the Northern Rockies today leading to fair weather for most locations. Patchy freezing fog will be possible for valleys locations with localized hazardous travel due to low visibility and occasional black ice. Elsewhere, a few snow showers will occur across the higher terrain of northwest Montana, especially around Glacier National Park. There is a slight concern that pockets of light freezing rain could impact a few valleys of western Montana but overall any threat will remain localized.
A positively tilted long wave trough stretches from Hudson Bay southwest to northwestern Mexico today with westerly flow aloft across the Gulf Coast states. Surface analysis shows a cold front extending from southern Ontario southwest to the Texas Coast. This cold front will approach today with warm air advection and isentropic ascent increasing as return flow picks up just ahead of the boundary. These winds will decrease overnight before becoming northerly and increasing once again behind a cold front on Wednesday.
WARM AND MOIST AIR IS ADVANCING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH MIDDLE TENNESSEE AT THE CURRENT HOUR.
454 AM CST TUE JAN 26 2016 A RATHER STRONG COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED ACROSS FAR MISSISSIPPI EARLY THIS MORNING. COLD AIR IS LURKING VERY CLOSE BEHIND THE FRONT AND NORTHERN AREAS MAY BE NEAR FREEZING BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN HAS THE UPPER TROUGH PUSHING THROUGH THE REGION AND EVENTUALLY PUSHING THE FRONT AND ITS RAIN OUT OF THE FAR SOUTHERN AREAS.
456 AM CST TUE JAN 26 2016 THICK HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM OVERHEAD DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF AN UPPER TROUGH OUT TO OUR WEST. /ISSUED 302 AM CST TUE JAN 26 2016/ A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVING INTO SOUTH TX AND THE TX COASTAL AREAS THIS MORNING.
A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THE STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AND MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS LATER THIS MORNING AND WILL PUSH OFF THE LOWER COAST BETWEEN NOON AND 2 PM.
TWEEKED TEMPS AS TEMPS HOLDING STEADY AND A BIT WARMER THAN WHAT WAS FORECAST AT 12Z. ENOUGH DRY IN THE LOWEST LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WITH THE NORTHWEST WIND TO PRECLUDE FREEZING DRIZZLE. A BRIEF AREA OF PRECIP PSBL IN THE WARM ADVECTION SOME OF THE LOW TRACK INTO PARTS OF NE ND LATE TONIGHT/WED MORNING AND THEN MOST OF WEDNESDAY IN FAR NW MN. THESE WINDS WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR WHERE TEMPS WILL BE WELL ABOVE FREEZING. BUT WHERE WINDS WILL BE IT WILL BE QUITE MILD AND WITH THE WARMER TEMPS AND ALREADY A DRIFTING SNOW EVENT BEHIND US FEEL SNOW ON THE GROUND WILL NOT BLOW MUCH.
606 AM EST TUE JAN 26 2016 A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH TODAY AND TONIGHT THEN CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF TO THE EAST COMBINED WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL BRING A SOUTHERLY BREEZE WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY. THIS EVENING WILL THEN BE BREEZY AND MILD AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO NORTHERN AREAS VERY LATE TONIGHT, POSSIBLY BRINGING A FEW SNOW SHOWERS TO FAR NORTHERN AREAS TOWARD MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS NORTH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES NORTH AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES DOWNEAST.
241 AM PST TUE JAN 26 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK.
513 AM EST TUE JAN 26 2016 A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH TODAY AND TONIGHT THEN CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF TO THE EAST COMBINED WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL BRING A SOUTHERLY BREEZE WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY. THIS EVENING WILL THEN BE BREEZY AND MILD AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO NORTHERN AREAS VERY LATE TONIGHT, POSSIBLY BRINGING A FEW SNOW SHOWERS TO FAR NORTHERN AREAS TOWARD MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS NORTH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES NORTH AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES DOWNEAST.
WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE IN STORE FOR THE AREA THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. HEIGHTS RISE TODAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE TO THE WEST TILTS INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS RIDGE WILL BE FLATTENED TONIGHT BY ENERGY STREAMING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA CAUSING INCREASING DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND MORE OF A WARM UP FOR WEDNESDAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE PROGGED TO INCREASE TONIGHT OVER THE WESTERN VALLEYS AS A LEE TROUGH FORMS AND DEEPENS IN RESPONSE TO ENERGY STREAMING ACROSS CANADA.
LATEST HRRR DOESN'T SHOW PARTICULARLY WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY DURING THE NEXT 6 HOURS, BUT MOST PLACES WILL STILL RECEIVE MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION TODAY, HENCE THE HIGH POP'S. IT WAS CLOUDY AND MILD ACROSS THE MID STATE EARLY THIS MORNING, WITH TEMPERATURES HANGING IN THE LOWER 70S. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE LOWER AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL PROVIDE A VERY MOIST FLOW OF AIR UP ACROSS THE MID STATE TODAY, WITH SHOWERS BECOMING NUMEROUS OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY, ALONG WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT, EXPECT A SLIGHTLY GREATER TEMP RISE, WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S OVER EASTERN AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES.
950 AM PDT TUE SEP 29 2015 TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MID-WEEK WITH A TROUGH TO THE WEST AND A RIDGE TO THE EAST.
THE HEAVIEST RAIN BANDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THIS SAME AREA AND WITH THE HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AND TROPICAL CONNECTION SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE.
NO BIG CHANGES FOR WEDNESDAY BUT TEMPERATURES MAY TREND A FEW DEGREES COOLER.
TAF SITES WILL REMAIN NEAR THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE 850MB MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW. /ISSUED 325 AM CDT TUE SEP 29 2015/ THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS IS FINALLY STARTING TO MOVE EASTWARD. THIS SYSTEM WILL OPEN UP AS IT MOVES EAST AND NORTHEAST AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS FROM WEST.
624 AM CDT TUE SEP 29 2015 COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED SOUTH OF CWA. BEHIND BOUNDARY TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES IN. HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES NEAR GOING WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES IN THE SOUTH. UPPER FLOW FOR MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK WILL SEE TROFINESS IN THE EAST WITH RIDGING ACROSS THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST.
700 AM CDT TUE SEP 29 2015 A SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH THE CWA THIS MORNING. FORCING IS QUICK TO EXIT SOUTH OF THE REGION THIS MORNING AS DRY/COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND SO HAVE TAPERED PCPN CHANCES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH FAIRLY QUICKLY THIS MORNING. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID WEEK AS UPPER RIDGING AMPLIFIES TO OUR WEST.
VERY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL SUPPORT WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.
LEADING EDGE OF COLD FRONT HAS MOVED INTO OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO FAR NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. AN ELONGATED TROUGH REMAINS POSITIONED TO THE EAST OF OK. FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TO THE TX GULF COAST. THE POSITIVELY TILTED RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN SLOWLY INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS OF TX/CO/KS. WITH THE RIDGE ESTABLISHED. GUIDANCE BEGINS TO STRUGGLE AS AN EXPANSIVE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A STOUT HUDSON BAY LOW BECOMES STRETCHED FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE NRN CO/SWRN NEB.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST IS FORECAST TO PROMOTE DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED JUST EAST OF HOUSTON WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN ALLOWING AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO OPEN UP THE UPPER LEVEL LOW INTO A TROUGH AND MOVE IT EAST TO A SOUTHEASTERN STATES TO CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO AXIS BY WEDNESDAY WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING INTO TEXAS.
WHICH ARE ONLY IN THE LOW 60S. QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. THE BASE OF A 250 MB UPPER TROUGH IS ACROSS THE LAKE SUPERIOR AREA THIS MORNING WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. THEN TROUGH MOVES EAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH A WEAKER SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. 850 MB RH IS DRY BY NOON BUT 925 MB RH STAYS BETWEEN 60 AND 80 PCT OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST DUE TO THE LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST WINDS OFF LAKE MICHIGAN. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE OFF TO THE SOUTH BY LATE MORNING. THEN AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FOR ALONG WITH QUIET BUT COOLER CONDITIONS.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL PREVAIL OVER THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS THE MID STATE AS THE UPPER TROUGH SLIDES EASTWARD. LATEST HRRR DOESN'T SHOW PARTICULARLY WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY DURING THE NEXT 6 HOURS, BUT MOST PLACES WILL STILL RECEIVE MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION TODAY, HENCE THE HIGH POP'S.
ELONGATED OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE GULF COAST TRACKS INTO S GA TONIGHT AND THEN MOVES NE WED. WINDS WILL VEER TODAY AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH AND THEN A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS WED WITH WINDS SHIFITNG FROM SW TO NW. A NORTHERLY SURGE IS FORECAST TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK AND WEEKEND AS A STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH OUT OF CANADA.
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL WILL EVENTUALLY PUSH BACK EASTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND THE LOW BEGINS TO PULL EAST. THE LOW WILL QUICKLY PULL AWAY WEDNESDAY. AN AMPLIFYING EAST-COAST TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BECOME DOMINANT DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.
A COLD FRONT IS SLOWLY MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH THE CWA AS OF 2 AM. THE PRESENCE OF THE LOW IN CENTRAL IOWA HAS HELD OFF ANY TRUE CAA OVER NORTHEAST IOWA THUS FAR. THE LOW WILL HAVE SPREAD EAST OF THE CWA.
THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS WILL BE POSITIONED THROUGH THIS AREA THIS AFTERNOON YIELDING SOME LOCALIZED AREAS WITH STRONGER INSTABILITY. THE LACKING INGREDIENT FOR SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT IS LARGE-SCALE LIFT AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS HAS ALREADY SHIFTED EASTWARD INTO LOUISIANA. TAF SITES WILL REMAIN NEAR THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE 850MB MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW. SUBSIDENCE OCCURRING IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW SHOULD RESULT IN DRY WEATHER. /ISSUED 325 AM CDT TUE SEP 29 2015/ THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS IS FINALLY STARTING TO MOVE EASTWARD. THIS SYSTEM WILL OPEN UP AS IT MOVES EAST AND NORTHEAST AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS FROM WEST.
A STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL SHIFT THE DRY AND STABLE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT MORE NORTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE PERIOD, BUT SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR.
854 AM EDT TUE SEP 29 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TODAY. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE GULF STATES TO OPEN UP AND MERGE WITH S/W TROF DIGGING SE FROM SRN CANADA ACRS THE GREAT LAKES. EXPECT PCPN TO BECOME A LTL MORE BROKEN IN COVERAGE THIS AFTN AHEAD OF SFC COLD FRONT WHICH IS EXPECTED TO PUSH SE ACRS ILN/S FA THIS EVENING. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH DIURNAL RISE WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 70S. A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL WORK THROUGH THE FA TODAY. WITH EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER IN PLACE TODAY AND WITH THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE REGION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM.
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL WILL EVENTUALLY PUSH BACK EASTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND THE LOW BEGINS TO PULL EAST. AN AMPLIFYING EAST-COAST TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BECOME DOMINANT DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIPS DEEP INTO CENTRAL MEXICO FROM THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. TO ITS EAST AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REACHES FROM NEAR THE YUCATAN TO THE DELMARVA PENINSULA. BOUNDARIES LURKING SOUTH OF THE LOWER KEYS. A MOIST PROFILE IN THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE (SEE 12Z KKEY). A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL SPILL EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
1027 AM EDT TUE SEP 29 2015 AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW A COLD FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL SLOWLY CROSS INDIANA FROM TODAY INTO TONIGHT. THE HOOSIER STATE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ON THE EAST SIDE OF A VERY LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES DEEP INTO CANADA.
613 AM CDT TUE SEP 29 2015 UPPER LOW TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL MOVE AWAY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT BEHIND A COLD FRONT.
EARLY THIS MORNING A WEAK UPPER-DECK LOW WAS SITUATED OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY WHILE A BROAD UPPER-DECK WAVE EXTENDED FROM HUDSON BAY TO ND & MN. DOWNSTAIRS THE COLD FRONT THAT HAS BEEN A TOPIC OF CONSIDERABLE DISCUSSION SINCE LAST WEEKEND HAD CREPT S/SE INTO N & NW KS WITH BOUNDARY ENCROACHING UPON KRSL. TODAY: THE BEHAVIOR OF THE AFORE-MENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DRAW CONSIDERABLE ATTENTION. A 3RD (& STRONGER) MID-UPPER TROUGH THAT'LL LIKEWISE ALSO PUSH E ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS FRI & FRI NIGHT WILL INDUCE LOWER-DECK CYCLOGENESIS OVER PRIMARILY EASTERN NM. A COLD FRONT WHICH HAS PASSED SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70. WITH IFR VERY LIKELY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WESTERN KS GIVEN UPSLOPE WIND.
IT LOOKS LIKE THE CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY WITH HI-TEMPS IN THE LOW 80S. AND WITH DRIER AIR POISED TO MOVE IN BEHIND A COLD FRONT LATE THIS WEEK. THE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE GENERAL VICINITY OF THE UPPER TX COAST/SW LA IS NOW IN THE PROCESS OF OPENING UP. AND IT SHOULD SHEAR EASTWARD AS HEIGHT FALLS SEND A A COLD FRONT INTO OUR REGION. BUT THERE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT LIFT WITH THE WEAKENING UPPER LOW TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS GIVEN DAYTIME HEATING BOTH TODAY AND TOMORROW.
TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S. THEREFORE TEMPERATURES HERE WERE IN THE LOWER 40S. TEMPERATURES WERE MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID 30S MOST AREAS. LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS IN WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA ARE FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW AND STRETCH ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA TODAY.
TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO GO SUB- FREEZING OVER THE NORTH AND APPROACH FREEZING CNTRL/FAR NE.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WAS PUSHING SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE DAKOTAS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGION. TEMPERATURE READINGS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS OF 2 AM RANGED FROM THE LOWER/MIDDLE 50S ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL WI. TO THE LOWER/MIDDLE 60S ACROSS SOUTHWEST WI AND NORTHEAST IA. THEN EXITING SOUTHEAST BY LATE MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE REGION. COOL/DRY PUSH ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH WILL RESULT IN CLEARING SKIES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH WITH HIGHS TOPPING OFF IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS THE AREA WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT/CALM WINDS. SOLIDLY VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE AND VERY DRY AIR ROLLS INTO THE REGION TODAY.
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER PORTION OF THE LOW WITH A COOL POOL ALOFT SHOULD AGAIN PRODUCE WIDELY SCATTERED TSTM ACTIVITY BEGINNING AROUND THE NOON HOUR. THIS IS BACKED UP NICELY BY THE HIGH RES RAPID REFRESH MODEL. SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD END WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AS THE LOW OUT OVER THE GULF SHEARS OFF INTO A TROF. CLOUD COVER WILL AGAIN HOLD TEMPS TO THE LOWER/MID 80S. THE MID/UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO ENLONGATE FROM SW TO NE. A PREDOMINATE UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL CONTINUE DIGGING ACROSS THE EASTERN U. DML LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT OFF THE SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA COAST WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY LIGHT AS THE LOW SLOWLY MOVES EAST ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY.
SUBSIDENCE OCCURRING IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW SHOULD RESULT IN DRY WEATHER. TAF SITES WILL REMAIN NEAR THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE 850MB MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW. /ISSUED 325 AM CDT TUE SEP 29 2015/ THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS IS FINALLY STARTING TO MOVE EASTWARD. THIS SYSTEM WILL OPEN UP AS IT MOVES EAST AND NORTHEAST AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS FROM WEST.
THE STAGNANT UPPER LOW OVER THE ARKLAMISS IS STILL BECOMING AN OPEN WAVE. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER IN THE LOWER HIGH TEMPS IN THE CENTRAL/EASTERN PORTIONS REMAINING UNDER AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON, SO NO CHANGES WERE MADE THERE. AS A COLD FRONT ARRIVES WEDNESDAY MORNING, ANOTHER ROUND OF SHRA/TSRA WILL BE PSBL, BUT HAVE GONE WITH VCSH AT BOTH KHSV AND KMSL UNTIL THE TIMING OF THIS ACTIVITY BECOMES MORE DEFINITIVE.
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE OVER THE REGION.
1011 AM CDT TUE SEP 29 2015 WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT HAD BEEN OVER SE TEXAS HAS MOVED EAST A BIT OVER LOUISIANA THIS MORNING. AS EARLY AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE LOWER 80S. THE CLOSED OFF LOW WILL WOBBLE JUST OFFSHORE THROUGH THE DAY BEFORE TRANSFORMING INTO AN OPEN WAVE TROUGH AND EXITING NORTHEAST LATER TONIGHT. THERE WILL STILL BE ENOUGH RESIDENT AVAILABLE MOISTURE WITH PEAKS OF SUN TO GENERATE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST MOVING PRECIPITATION AROUNDTHE BACKSIDE OF THIS LOW. SLIGHTLY WARMER TODAY AS MID TO LATE AFTERNOON CLOUDS BEGIN TO SCATTER OUT. BUT WARMER AFTERNOONS CLOSER TO 90 F AND COOLER MORNINGS IN THE 60S. RIDGING NUDGING INTO TEXAS AND OHIO VALLEY TROUGHING.
THE STAGNANT UPPER LOW OVER THE ARKLAMISS IS STILL BECOMING AN OPEN WAVE. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER IN THE LOWER HIGH TEMPS IN THE CENTRAL/EASTERN PORTIONS REMAINING UNDER AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON, SO NO CHANGES WERE MADE THERE. 12 /ISSUED 641 AM CDT TUE SEP 29 2015/ MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUED MOVING INLAND FROM AN UPPER LOW SITUATED OVER THE TX/LA REGION. THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND MOVE TO THE NE OVER THE NEXT DAY.
632 AM CDT TUE SEP 29 2015 A COLD FRONT IS SLOWLY MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH THE CWA AS OF 2 AM. THE PRESENCE OF THE LOW IN CENTRAL IOWA HAS HELD OFF ANY TRUE CAA OVER NORTHEAST IOWA THUS FAR. THE LOW WILL HAVE SPREAD EAST OF THE CWA.
WINDS ARE RATHER LIGHT AND VARIABLE FROM THE SFC TO 700 MB THEN BECOME SOUTHWEST AS THE UPPER TROUGH IS JUST TO THE WEST.
UPPER RIDGE WILL BE A LITTLE STRONGER TODAY FOR WARMER TEMPERATURES. UPPER RIDGE OVER OUR CWA WILL CONTINUE WARM DRY WEATHER THROUGH TONIGHT. ON WEDNESDAY THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST AS A PACIFIC TROUGH NEARS THE COAST.
642 AM CDT TUE SEP 29 2015 SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS SAGGED SOUTH INTO NORTHERN KANSAS. A RIDGE IS ANCHORED ACROSS THE FAR SW CONUS AND BAJA MEXICO. A BROAD TROUGH IS ANALYZED ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS. TO SLIGHT NORTHWESTERLY FLOW EXISTS FOR THE HIGH PLAINS. A COUPLE OF DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS. TONIGHT THE LOW MOVING WAVE WILL STILL BRING A POSSIBILITY FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLD T. DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR WILL BE CIRCULATING WEST OFF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.
1150 AM EDT TUE SEP 29 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL BE PASSING THROUGH TODAY WHICH WILL BE ENDING THE RAIN FROM THE NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AS IT MOVES THROUGH. SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR UP TONIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES ON AND HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN. WILL STILL SEE TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL TODAY DUE TO VERY WARM START AND FRONTAL TIMING BUT COOLER AIR ARRIVES BY TONIGHT. NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL CANADA TODAY WITH SHORT WAVE TROUGH INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL DRIVE A WEAKENING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AND MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL FOLLOW TONIGHT.