Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Drier air will arrive in the wake of Dorian this weekend with temperatures warming back into the 90s under high pressure.
Quiet weather continues as high pressure continues to impact the region. Lows tonight will be in mid 60s to around 70 with highs on Friday from the mid 80s N (owing to the passage of a weak cold front) to the mid 90s S.
For the most part, storms have remained fairly close to ridgelines with only a couple drifting off downwind. As previously mentioned, expect this activity to continue into the evening hours as the disturbance continues to rotate around the high along with moisture. As such, strong outflow winds are expected to become less of a threat as the lower atmosphere continues to moisten.
As of 825 pm MDT, the strongest storm was near Emmett, with storms spread out in and near the lower Treasure Valley.
/Issued 345 PM CDT Thu Sep 5 2019/ Ridge of high pressure currently stretched over the Southern Plains is expected to continue to be the dominate feature through the weekend.
/issued 322 PM CDT Thu Sep 5 2019/ The upper-level ridge will continue to dominate the weather across the southern Plains region into the weekend.
/issued 333 PM CDT Thu Sep 5 2019/ The region is currently under high pressure with clear skies seen on satellite. Temperatures are a little cooler than what we've been dealing with as the area is sitting in the mid-to-upper 80s. We've also seen a noticeable drop in the humidity today with dew points in the low 60s to low 70s. Tomorrow will be much more Summer-like with highs in the low-to- mid 90s. Southerly winds will bring the humidity back into the region as well with dew points back into the low-to-mid 70s.
Overnight low temperatures will drop into the low 70s and upper 60s, with warmer temperatures occuring along coastal areas.
Friday should be another nice day with sunny skies and lower humidity, but with less wind temperatures will probably rise a couple degrees warmer than today.
A cold front will move through the region Friday morning, turning winds to the north across Lake Michigan.
1049 PM EDT Thu Sep 5 2019 High pressure with dry conditions Friday. A weak trof develops in between the high pressure to our north and west and Dorian this evening. High pressure will continue to build over the area, with clouds from Dorian slowly exiting overnight and Friday morning. A mostly dry cold front will sag south through the forecast area overnight Friday.
The exception to this will be along the Oklahoma border where the cold front will be delayed until a midday or early afternoon timing. Large scale subsidence in proximity of mid level anticyclone center will prevent thunderstorm development along this front through tomorrow night.
450 PM MDT Thu Sep 5 2019 00Z TAF CYCLE Upper high over srn CO at 23Z to slowly shift south and ewd next 24 to 36 hrs, allowing mid level moisture to seep into NM. Near record high temperatures will return to some areas again on Friday as a stubborn high pressure system begins to shift east of the southern Rockies.
Temperatures have soared today with afternoon mixing behind the low. High pressure and lighter winds will bring somewhat cooler, but still above normal temps on Friday as upper ridging pushes further into the region.
/issued 241 PM CDT Thu Sep 5 2019/ Warm and dry weather continues today as the persistent upper ridge maintains its hold over the region.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 64 90 68 91 / 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 63 86 66 88 / 0 0 10 0 Oak Ridge, TN 61 87 67 87 / 0 0 10 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 61 83 60 83 / 0 0 10 10.
As a result some of our northwestern zones will see low temperatures drop into the mid to upper 60s overnight, while the rest of the region will stay warm and muggy in the low to mid 70s.
Slightly cooler than normal temps are expected tonight with clear skies and light north winds. By Friday evening a cold front will be dropping into Mid Tn from the northwest. Dry high pressure will keep skies clear to scattered.
After an unseasonably warm afternoon, a weak cold front will move southward through the region tonight, bringing just a smidge cooler temperatures for Friday, and gradually falling dewpoints through Friday night. The pattern changes this weekend as the mid-level ridge breaks down and a trough comes onshore from the Pacific.
A trough will lift across the region tonight, possibly bringing a few showers or isolated thunderstorms to the southern Cascades.
Good radiational cooling conditions with high pressure briefly moving in should promote at least some development toward dawn. Friday will warm up a little more efficiently, with some compressional warming ahead of a reinforcing cold front.
Where it has cleared, winds were light northerly with dewpoints in the lower 60s.
The high risk of rip currents continues along area beaches through Friday morning. Generally westerly winds will continue into the weekend as Hurricane Dorian pulls away to the northeast and weak ridging builds into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico.
731 PM EDT Thu Sep 5 2019 High pressure to the north and low pressure associated with Hurricane Dorian is producing gusty winds this evening across most TAF sites.
652 PM EDT Thu Sep 5 2019 Expect increasing clouds late tonight with lows in the lower and middle 50s.
The fog will burn off soon after sunrise and the state will return to VFR conditions under high pressure through the rest of the period.
Latest satellite and radar imagery indicates thunderstorms developing mainly east of the Sierra Cascade range this afternoon as an upper low spins off the Norcal coast. Brief ridging builds in behind the departing upper level system on Friday, ending shower and/or thunderstorm threat. Another upper level trough will move into CA over the weekend, bringing daytime highs down to below normal. Then, below normal temperatures are expected over the weekend given the trough passage.
658 PM CDT Thu Sep 5 2019 High pressure will bring mostly clear skies, light winds, and comfortably cool conditions this evening.
Despite this, fcst lows are on track to reach the lower to middle 70s. Surface analysis showing the area under a weak ridge providing a predominant light and somewhat variable flow. Will see an eastward advance of the aforementioned upper ridge going through the weekend, in concert with an easterly wave moving west across the western Gulf of Mexico. High pressure will maintain a dry weather pattern through the Friday and the weekend with winds remain light and somewhat variable.
As Dorian heads up the east coast, high pressure near the Great Lakes is helping to keep our area relatively cool and dry. As the High moves to the east tomorrow, our winds will turn to the south and higher dew points will move in. A weak cold front moves through Friday evening.
624 PM EDT Thu Sep 5 2019 High pressure over the area will bring quiet weather and pleasant temperatures through the end of the work week and into the weekend. Under the high with calm surface winds and no low clouds, valley fog will be widespread in nepa and south central NY. Low temperatures will be from the mid 40s to the low 50s. More showers for the entire area from an upper level wave and trough dropping southeast into the area. Low temperatures in the low and mid 50s.
507 PM MDT Thu Sep 5 2019 Mean troughing will continue into central Canada, supporting a continued southward bias to the jet stream and associated storm track. Expect cooler weather with passing impulses emanating form the NE Pac upper trough. Upper trough will push east and support high centered pos theta-e adv over the west this evening shifting east into Friday morning.
939 PM EDT Thu Sep 5 2019 High pressure over the area will bring quiet weather and pleasant temperatures through the end of the work week and into the weekend. Under the high with calm surface winds and no low clouds, valley fog will be widespread in nepa and south central NY. Low temperatures will be from the mid 40s to the low 50s. More showers for the entire area from an upper level wave and trough dropping southeast into the area. Low temperatures in the low and mid 50s.
An area of low pressure was located in NW Minnesota with a cold front extending to the southwest into the Central Plains. This Evening through Friday A cold front will move through late tonight into early Friday morning.
Additionally, we'll mix into a pool of cooler temperatures aloft that will rotate around Dorian and keep temperatures a little cooler than yesterday. Expect highs in the low to mid 90s with heat indices below 100.
Further south, much of southern KS will see highs in the low to mid 90s once again. Low level southerly flow will return early on Saturday with breezy southerly winds anticipated by afternoon as the warm front returns northward across the area.
137 AM EDT Fri Sep 6 2019 High pressure to the north and low pressure associated with Hurricane Dorian along the North Carolina coast early this morning will keep some light winds across the state overnight.
A cold front will bring rain chances to parts of the area today.
Meanwhile, a cold front was pushing southeast and extended from western WI to central IA and looks to be a dry FROPA. Today: Cold front will move through the cwa this morning with gusty nw winds behind the front, up to 25 mph. However, high pressure will begin building into the cwa this afternoon with skies becoming mostly sunny. Highs will range from the mid 70s along Hwy 20 to the lower 80s in far ne MO. Tonight: Pleasant night ahead with high pressure overhead and light nw winds.
and Saturday Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will exit northeast Wisconsin early this morning as a cold front sweeps through the area. Saturday should start out partly sunny with increasing clouds as a weak upper trough approaches from the Plains. Highs will be a few degrees cooler than usual.
Saturday will have a weak backdoor front pushing across the northern part of the CWA in the late afternoon evening on the leading edge of another reinforcing ridge. Temps remain above climo given the abnormally dry regime with many locations reaching the low to mid 90s today and even the mid to upper 90s for Saturday. Given the lower dewpts/humidity we should remain below the critical heat indices needed for an advisory but will still be dangerous heat for those outdoors, especially this weekend. Upper level ridging forecast to remain in place through at least next Friday by all 00Z medium range guidance.
An upper ridge and a drier airmass will provide dry and hot weather for the weekend. Model guidance temperatures were close with highs in the lower to middle 90s, which is above climatological norms for early September. Drier air behind Dorian combined with downslope flow will lead to mostly clear skies with highs in the lower to mid 90s and lows in the mid to upper 60s. High pressure aloft sets up over the Southeast U.
Upper ridging centered over the southern Rockies will remain the predominant weather feature in the short term. The ridge will contract slightly, which will allow a weak frontal boundary into the region late tonight into Saturday. Temperatures will be slightly cooler on Saturday as the front stalls out and washes out, but will still be (in areas ahead of the boundary) what I consider rather unpleasant for September.
Slightly cooler than normal temps are expected tonight with clear skies and light north winds. By Friday evening a cold front will be dropping into Mid Tn from the northwest.
High pressure in the mid-levels will strengthen over Arizona with a slightly drier air mass remaining in place. In addition, with the strengthening of high pressure, a warm air cap will develop in the mid-levels restricting instability.
/Today through Saturday/ The center of a strong upper level ridge is emerging from the Southern Rockies and into the Southern High Plains. This ridge will continue eastward towards the forecast area over the next 24 hours. With a lack of significant cloud cover and generally light winds, I see little reason why most locations will not be as warm, if not warmer, than yesterday, and again the same for Saturday, especially as subsidence increases with the approach of the center of the upper ridge.
1121 PM MDT Thu Sep 5 2019 Mean troughing will continue into central Canada, supporting a continued southward bias to the jet stream and associated storm track. Expect cooler weather with passing impulses emanating form the NE Pac upper trough. Upper trough will push east and support high centered pos theta-e adv over the west this evening shifting east into Friday morning.
305 AM CDT Fri Sep 6 2019 Another hot day is expected across eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas Today as the upper level ridge continues to reign supreme across the Southern Plains.
Thankfully the upper trough will quickly push the storm off to the northeast today. As this trough moves east a boundary will swing across the Tennessee Valley. The aforementioned boundary will usher in another cooler and drier day on Saturday.
228 AM CDT Fri Sep 6 2019 An upper level ridge remains to the west of the area early this morning leaving the region in a northwest upper level flow pattern. Highs today will range from the middle 80s across central Missouri to the lower 90s across southern Missouri. Highs Saturday will remain from the lower 80s across central Missouri to around 90 across far southwestern Missouri, as a slightly cooler air mass slides south.
Weak cold front will push into the area Friday evening w/ a wind shift, however wind speeds remain light through the period. /Issued 345 PM CDT Thu Sep 5 2019/ Ridge of high pressure currently stretched over the Southern Plains is expected to continue to be the dominate feature through the weekend. This could possibly allow for temps Saturday to be a degree or so cooler near the Kansas and Missouri borders.
Saturday should remain rain free as high pressure regains its dominance this weekend resulting in more hot and dry weather.
The exception to this will be along the Oklahoma border where the cold front will be delayed until a midday or early afternoon timing. Large scale subsidence in proximity of mid level anticyclone center will prevent thunderstorm development along this front through tomorrow night. Going into the weekend, another hot day is forecast Saturday as yet another low level thermal ridge develops across southwest KS. The mid and upper level flow pattern will remain fairly week, despite the dissipation of the upper level high just to our south.
Tonight Through Saturday Night Currently, seeing mostly clear skies across the Natural State, with the leading edge of a weak cold front stalled in the northeast quarter of the state. H500 ridging and lower level anticyclonic flow will contribute to widespread subsidence, inhibiting any precip chances over the next few days.
By Friday morning, a cold front will push southward through the forecast area, bringing in drier air and cooler temperatures. The pleasant weather will continue into Saturday, with highs mainly in the lower to middle 80s.
Moisture levels will continue to decrease throughout the day as surface and upper level high pressure builds into the region. High temperatures will be warmer than yesterday with decreasing cloud cover and near to slightly above normal temperatures. High pressure ridge will remain in place through the day on Saturday with temperatures warming a bit above normal.
311 AM CDT Fri Sep 6 2019 311 AM CDT Cold front will sweep across the area this morning.
High pressure centered over the southern High Plains will continue to influence our dry weather pattern through tomorrow. With mostly clear skies tonight after high temperatures in the low to mid 90s today, low temperatures will drop to mid and upper 50s for parts of western Panhandles to upper 60s in SE TX Panhandle. A weak cold front will try and makes its way south to the OK Panhandle, but will struggle to reach there with large scale subsidence across the region due to the large H500 high pressure system.
958 PM PDT Thu Sep 5 2019 A weak trough of low pressure will cross the area through Friday, giving way to a ridge of high pressure that will quickly build back in by Friday evening. This will bring warmer than normal conditions for yet another day in Western Washington.
Upper level ridging will build today and into the weekend, resulting in triple-digit heat across parts of North and Central Texas.
A drying trend will commence today with thunderstorm activity becoming limited to the higher terrain of southern Nevada and Northwest Arizona.
/issued 333 PM CDT Thu Sep 5 2019/ The region is currently under high pressure with clear skies seen on satellite. Temperatures are a little cooler than what we've been dealing with as the area is sitting in the mid-to-upper 80s. We've also seen a noticeable drop in the humidity today with dew points in the low 60s to low 70s. Tomorrow will be much more Summer-like with highs in the low-to- mid 90s. Southerly winds will bring the humidity back into the region as well with dew points back into the low-to-mid 70s. Our next system will move in Friday night/Saturday morning as a trough moves through the County Warning Area.
Temperatures have soared today with afternoon mixing behind the low. High pressure and lighter winds will bring somewhat cooler, but still above normal temps on Friday as upper ridging pushes further into the region. The ridge will collapse under the next low pressure system late Friday night/Saturday.
Continued with a cooler solution of lows across the northern zones in association with the lower dewpoint air. The warm front looks to stall out across northern Kansas, but there is some wiggle room still with the frontal positioning.
1101 PM EDT Thu Sep 5 2019 High pressure will build down from the north late tonight and crest over the area early Friday. High pressure building in from Canada behind the front will settle across the north late tonight bringing clear and calm conditions. High pressure will bring a sunny and cold start north with some patchy clouds lingering Downeast Friday morning. Clouds will then gradually increase during the midday and afternoon, mostly in west central areas, ahead of an approaching trough moving in from the Great Lakes.
Surface winds will continue to shift to the north behind the front, while broad surface ridging overtakes the Plains/Missouri Valley through the day.
123 AM EDT Fri Sep 6 2019 High pressure over the area will bring quiet weather and pleasant temperatures through the end of the work week and into the weekend. Under the high with calm surface winds and no low clouds, valley fog will be widespread in nepa and south central NY. Low temperatures will be from the mid 40s to the low 50s. More showers for the entire area from an upper level wave and trough dropping southeast into the area. Low temperatures in the low and mid 50s.
Frontal trough extending from Dorian remains over the region through Tonight with drier air continuing to advect in.
409 AM EDT Fri Sep 6 2019 A weak cold front will push through the area today bringing a slight chance of precipitation. High pressure will reestablish itself across the region for the weekend, yielding slightly below normal temperatures and mainly dry conditions. At the same time a cold front is forecast to work southeast into Ohio. Northwest flow aloft will establish itself over the region tonight, which will allow high pressure at the surface to begin to build in.
355 AM CDT Fri Sep 6 2019 Early morning sfc analysis shows high pressure centered over the n-cntl Gulf which has ushered in a light nrly low-level flow over the forecast area. Meanwhile the flow around Hurricane Dorian has helped push a backdoor cold front swwd to a position from the Mid-South to the FL Panhandle overnight. Water vapor imagery continues to show mid/upper-level ridging in place from the Rockies through the srn Plains to the wrn Gulf Coast region. The ridging aloft is progged to linger into the weekend, limiting moisture through the column and keeping convective development at bay.
Recently available GOES-16 guidance indicating broad (and relatively stable) lift over northern Illinois in the warm sector ahead of the cold front was producing an opaque cloud ceiling near 6 kft agl.
Quiet weather continues as high pressure continues to impact the region. Lows tonight will be in mid 60s to around 70 with highs on Friday from the mid 80s N (owing to the passage of a weak cold front) to the mid 90s S. Saturday looks to be the coolest of the next several days with highs from the low 80s N to around 90 SW.
Water vapor imagery still shows high pressure area over the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandle area.
641 AM CDT Fri Sep 6 2019 We had a cool front move through late last evening that will result in lower dewpoints/humidity today as well as high temperatures that will be around 10 to 15 degrees cooler than yesterday.
722 AM EDT Fri Sep 6 2019 High pressure to the northwest was in control of the weather pattern this morning.
An upper ridge and a drier airmass will provide dry and hot weather for the weekend. Model guidance temperatures were close with highs in the lower to middle 90s, which is above climatological norms for early September. The downslope flow pattern should lead to mostly clear skies, along with warmer than normal temperatures during the day. Afternoon highs in the lower to mid 90s for Saturday.
The large high pressure area that has been anchored over southeast Colorado with the ridge extending into the northern Rockies is flattened by a trough that moves through the Pacific Northwest today and tonight. That trough moves across the northern and central high plains regions late Saturday with a series of deeper troughs moving out of the eastern Pacific and across the western U. ridge and replacing it with a broad trough. Temperatures today will be ten to fifteen degrees cooler than yesterday following the passage of a cold front last night. Scattered thunderstorms, a few possibly becoming severe, are expected late Saturday as the cold front moves back across the region as a warm front as the upper ridge over the western U.
713 AM EDT Fri Sep 6 2019 Under mostly clear skies and light southwest to west winds, temperatures are in the lower 80s in most island communities. With the southern extent of the cyclonic envelope associated with Hurricane Dorian lifting north northeastward, high pressure will build into our region for the next several days.
Trough extending from Dorian currently resides from the mouth of the St. A trough extending from Dorian will linger through Tonight. This front will push back to the northwest Saturday as high pressure builds to the east.
608 AM CDT Fri Sep 6 2019 311 AM CDT Cold front will sweep across the area this morning.
A weak cold front will move into northern Oklahoma this afternoon, briefly stalling near or just north of I-40 tonight, then lifting quickly back northward on Saturday. The higher dewpoints north of the front would yield some concern for a storm or two, but by that point, diurnal stabilization and weakening convergence will keep chances for convection too low to mention. Progressive upper troughs over the central plains and moving onshore this weekend will draw the mentioned front back north of the region, with veered lower level flow in its wake.
322 AM MDT Fri Sep 6 2019 The forecast thinking has remained unchanged with the latest release indicating increasing cloud cover across northeast Montana this morning as low pressure approaches.
After the low levels moisten this afternoon, widespread wetting rains (> 0.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 91 70 92 64 / 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 87 68 88 62 / 0 10 10 0 Oak Ridge, TN 87 68 88 62 / 0 10 10 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 84 60 83 58 / 0 10 10 0.
Subsidence from an upper ridge over the region brings temperatures well above seasonal norms to the region through tonight, along with a lack of rain.