Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Chattanooga Airport, TN 73 89 69 88 66 / 20 70 20 10 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 71 88 67 87 63 / 20 80 30 10 0 Oak Ridge, TN 71 86 65 86 63 / 30 80 20 10 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 67 85 65 84 58 / 30 90 40 10 0.
A dominating ridge of high pressure will build eastward and center itself over eastern Utah and western Colorado on Tuesday. This will bring even warmer temperatures to the forecast area, along with a continuation of dry weather. A ridge will build up over the western states this week, centered generally over the Great Basin. This will mean persistent warm and dry conditions across northeast Colorado, especially for the lower elevations. Expect generally isolated afternoon and evening convection mostly confined to the high terrain and favoring the southern Front Range.
An upper low was lifting north from the Bay Area this afternoon. An upper trough is then forecast to emerge across the NERN PAC during mid to late week. particularly by the weekend as the center of an upper-level anticyclone shifts west toward California.
Looking upstream across northern AR and southeast MO, more organized convection is moving south ahead of a prefrontal trough that will dip into the area overnight. A weak mid level trough extends from the OH Valley into northern Arkansas. A more potent mid level trough will move into the Great Lakes tonight and drive a cold front south.
Cuba sent several scouts to the north across the Straits, while convection across the Gulf sent retrograding boundaries to the southeast towards the Gulf side waters of the Lower Keys. Finally, the confluent flow from the building lower level ridge is working west from Andros. Given the juiced profile (90th percentile TPW) sampled by the 00Z KKEY RAOB, the best region for redevelopment will be ahead of the confluence of the building ridge, such as the eastern two-thirds of the Straits. Although the amplitude of the tides has peaked, boaters and residents should still plan for large changes in the high and low tides, with more scope needed in spring and dock lines, and less clearance available under the lowest bridges during high tide.
503 PM MDT Mon Aug 29 2022 Upper ridge centered over the western CONUS will be main feature through the short term period. The ridge nudges across the Rockies tomorrow resulting in sunny skies and warmer temperatures.
Otherwise, the dense cloud cover and rains will make for another mild/muggy night with lows bottoming out in the low to mid 70s.
Isolated showers or thunderstorms into the evening over the higher elevations. Upper level closed low is pushing inland this afternoon. We have seen a few radar return/lightning with this trough mainly just outside of our area in Lake County and MesoAnalysis shows some weak upper level instability ahead of the trough. Soundings are very dry especially in the lower levels and there will be limited if any rain with any radar returns or thunderstorms.
522 PM MDT Mon Aug 29 2022 Upper-level analysis shows a trough pushing into the Great Lakes region, with a broad ridge building over the Pacific NW. Beneath the upper ridge, warm and dry weather with mostly sunny skies and light winds will continue for the next few days.
359 AM CDT Tue Aug 30 2022 Forecast Highlights: -A slightly cooler and drier air mass works into the area today. Forecast Discussion: The large-scale synoptic pattern across the CONUS early today shows an expansive mid-level ridge over the western US and a trough over the Great Lakes region.
Large scale ridging is continuing to build to the west while the upper low has transitioned further east over Ontario, with very dry/stable northwest flow over our CWA. As temperatures are slowly moderating aloft and good mixing is anticipated we should see highs in the 80s from the RRV to the west (70s to the east) and a few degrees warmer on Wednesday with even less cloud cover due to stronger influence of the building ridge.
Today Through Wednesday Night An upper ridge is over the Rockies this morning with an upper trough over the Great Lakes. By tonight, the trough will extend along the east coast. The upper ridge will expand eastward Wednesday over much of the central and southern U. Southerly flow will continue at the surface today ahead of a cold front that will move through the state. High pressure will filter into the state behind the front. Lows tonight will be in the lower 60s north to the mid 70s south and lower 60s north to upper 60s south Wednesday night.
140 AM PDT Tue Aug 30 2022 A hot and dry pattern returns as high pressure assumes control over the region. HEAT: Southwesterly flow returns to the Sierra Front as a high pressure dome sets up over the Great Basin. This stretch of hot weather will have us checking the record books daily, since the highs may meet or exceed them. The overnight lows will be notably warmer late this week into the holiday weekend (mid to upper 60s for urban areas), but thankfully the drier conditions and longer nights will help to provide a bit of reprieve from the daytime temperatures.
This is due to the high pressure in the Four Corners and the large upper level ridge. With the thermal ridge also nudging into western North Dakota, temperatures today will range from the lower 80s in the east, up to the upper 80s in the west. As the thermal ridge continues build in, temperatures throughout the week will warm into the 90s.
(Today and tonight) Currently a weak cold front/surface boundary is stalled across central Kansas, but expected to be pushing into the Southern Plains later today.
Mainly fair weather with very warm to hot temps expected over the coming days as strong high pressure builds over the region and remains into the holiday weekend. Beginning of a prolonged heat wave today as ridging strengthens over the southwestern US.
The short term forecast will remain warm, mostly dry, and uneventful as an upper-level, high amplitude ridge hangs out over western CONUS. Conditions this afternoon are quite dry, with current visible satellite imagery showing a handful of clouds across the high terrain.
Cliff MORNING DISCUSSION: Hot and dry conditions return to the region this week with upper ridge build over the western states. Expect some breezy conditions over the eastern zones today with low pressure moving east and high pressure pressing into the state. Temperatures will warm quickly through midweek and with high pressure over eastern Montana, winds will remain fairly light for Tuesday and Wednesday.
A dominating ridge of high pressure will build eastward and center itself over eastern Utah and western Colorado on Tuesday. This will bring even warmer temperatures to the forecast area, along with a continuation of dry weather. A ridge will build up over the western states this week, centered generally over the Great Basin. This will mean persistent warm and dry conditions across northeast Colorado, especially for the lower elevations. Expect generally isolated afternoon and evening convection mostly confined to the high terrain and favoring the southern Front Range. Wednesday, models have a weak disturbance moving down the east side of the ridge with a weak front down from the High Plains. This wave should increase coverage of storms across the high country and might also bring isolated storms out over the plains.
1217 AM EDT Tue Aug 30 2022 A trough of low pressure will linger over or near the area through Tuesday.
204 AM MDT Tue Aug 30 2022 A ridge of high pressure will continue to build through the short term. Water vapor satellite shows that the air under this ridge is very dry. Winds under the ridge will remain light.
Temps not much cooler but will not complain about dewpoints being 6 to 8 degrees lower Wed afternoon compared to last few weeks. SNELSON Drier air will have settled into the northern two thirds of the area behind a weak cold front at the start of the forecast period.
1055 PM MDT Mon Aug 29 2022 Upper-level analysis shows a trough pushing into the Great Lakes region, with a broad ridge building over the Pacific NW. Beneath the upper ridge, warm and dry weather with mostly sunny skies and light winds will continue for the next few days.
The current PoPs were reflect this solution, with the highest PoPs south of I-20, and the better rain chances shifting south through the day. Overnight lows will be in the lower 70s.
An upper level high settles in to the southwest CONUS with the eastern extent into the High Plains region. WAA across southwest and western Nebraska will lead to temperatures reaching the low to mid 90s across the area.
Winds will become breezy from the northwest for the afternoon, however, thanks to a strengthening surface gradient in advance of an area of high pressure building eastward across the Lower and Mid-Missouri River Valley. Temperatures will moderate a bit, which should put highs back into the low 80s, but humidity levels will continue to be on low side.
1218 AM CDT Tue Aug 30 2022 (This evening through Tuesday night) An upper level short wave trough was slowly moving south through eastern New Mexico. More thunderstorms will be possible mainly for the southern Texas Panhandle towards sunrise along the cold front.
354 AM EDT Tue Aug 30 2022 Shower and thunderstorm activity will decrease today as a cold front ushers in cooler and drier air. High pressure will then provide tranquil weather through the end of the week.
350 AM CDT Tue Aug 30 2022 Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will end east of I-55 early this morning as clouds decrease with passage of a cold front, leaving ample sunshine the next few days. Cooler and less humid air will usher into central IL on northwest breezes today. Predawn surface map shows a cold front moving se into central sections of IN/IL/MO with dewpoint dropping through the 60s behind the front.
1122 PM MDT Mon Aug 29 2022 Upper ridging with dry air in place is really limiting shower/thunderstorm development this afternoon, with only a few showers noted across the far southern mountains. Similar pattern and trends on Tuesday, with any precip development expected to be really isolated and confined to the higher terrain.
(Tuesday through Wednesday) Upper-level trough to swing southeast across the region today allowing for diurnally enhanced showers and thunderstorms areawide. A cold front will drift south into the region overnight bringing a wind shift from the north across mainly southeast Oklahoma and southwest Arkansas by midnight and across all areas by daybreak. Overnight low temperatures tonight are forecast to fall into the low to mid 70s. Front to linger across the region on Wednesday serving as the catalyst for scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms mainly along and south of I-20 with afternoon high temperatures forecast to climb into the lower 90s areawide.
223 AM MDT Tue Aug 30 2022 Across the Tri State region this morning, skies are clear as high pressure continues to roll south and east through the area. A broad, amplified upper ridge currently sits over the western portion of the country, allowing for west- northwest flow aloft.
136 AM EDT Tue Aug 30 2022 Aviation Sfc cold front sends a line of strong to severe storms through the area over the next couple hours, exiting to the east by 6 PM. Amplifying upper trough lags behind the sfc front so additional showers and thunderstorm development will remain possible behind the current line as the front slows down. There should be a fairly extensive cu/sc field north of I-96 and perhaps a few showers as secondary trough/cold front swings through.
1123 PM MDT Mon Aug 29 2022 Upper ridge centered over the western CONUS will be main feature through the short term period. The ridge nudges across the Rockies tomorrow resulting in sunny skies and warmer temperatures. Convection is forecast to develop upstream in the Nebraska panhandle/Cheyenne Ridge area and move southeast Wednesday evening.
A dome of high pressure over the southwestern states will result in hotter conditions across our area today and Wednesday.
257 AM EDT Tue Aug 30 2022 Showers and storms will persist until a cold frontal passage Tuesday night. Conditions will generally be drier and cooler for late-week. This threat area will coincide with the ridges, where the DCAPE max will lie in the afternoon. The cold front itself will likely pass overnight. There is high confidence that there will be a late-week cooldown behind the aforementioned cold front.
350 AM EDT Tue Aug 30 2022 Conditions today governed by higher amplitude troughing, as strong height falls commence south of a closed mid level low pivoting across Hudson Bay. Attendant cold front arrives locally early today, ushering a modestly cooler but notably much drier airmass for the afternoon period. Deeper layer stability held within prevailing mid level northwest flow and encroaching high pressure points to dry conditions with limited diurnal cu development Wednesday.
134 AM EDT Tue Aug 30 2022 Shower and thunderstorm chances will increase into tonight in the moist and unstable airmass ahead of a cold front. The cold front will push through the Ohio Valley Tuesday with precipitation chances ending. Cooler and drier weather returns starting mid week under the influence of high pressure. Mid level trof to pivot thru the Great Lakes with a surface cold front pushing thru the area during the morning in the west and by early aftn in the far southeast. Cooler and drier air with high temperatures from the upper 70s northeast to the lower 80s southwest. Expect clear skies and cooler conditions with lows of 55 to 60. Northwesterly flow aloft will be in place to start the period as the mean axis of an H5 trough pushes through the Midwest region.
Otherwise, drier air will begin filtering south today and Wednesday, which will allow for a somewhat less humid airmass, although seasonably warm temperatures in the low- mid 90s are still likely given the drier airmass.
354 AM CDT Tue Aug 30 2022 An upper level ridge will strengthen and expand across the desert southwest over the next few days and will remain nearly stationary throughout the 7 day forecast period.
Any chance of storms will be less than 10 percent, with the highest chance being on Wednesday night near the Canadian border. Dominant upper level ridging favors subsidence and drying. The GFS continues to prog an upper level disturbance to move eastward along the Highway 2 corridor on Wednesday night, from Cut Bank to Harlem.
1213 AM EDT Tue Aug 30 2022 Showers and storms will persist until a cold frontal passage Tuesday evening. Conditions will generally be drier and cooler for late-week. This threat area will coincide with the ridges, where the DCAPE max will lie in the afternoon. High pressure will bring a cooler and drier pattern starting on Wednesday. Shower/storm coverage with IFR/MVFR restrictions will increase again early this morning as a cold front approaches. VFR under high pressure will likely dominate the remainder of the week.
(This afternoon through Wednesday Night) The cold front is located up across the mid west and extends from southern IO southwest through central KN. As a result, with the approaching trough axis and lowering heights, shower and tstm activity has commenced across that area. The upper trough axis will be in close proximity to the mid state with another round of showers and tstms having developed after 3 or 4 am or so. As we move into the mid to late afternoon hours, the cold front will be moving through southern and eastern areas.
151 AM MDT Tue Aug 30 2022 Current upper air analysis and WV imagery shows ridge in place over the western CONUS with light northwest flow over the northern plains. A trough sits over the Great Lakes region with the upper low centered over central ON. A cold front drapes across MI and dips southwestward into MO and KS. Warmer and dry today with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s. An upper ridge will dominate the western US through most of the week, bringing some light northwest flow over the northern Plains. The winds will remain fairly light under the ridge but the temperatures will rise through the week.
Showers and storms will increase in coverage across the area this afternoon ahead of a cold front and diminish this evening. SR Chattanooga Airport, TN 89 69 88 66 90 / 60 20 0 0 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 88 67 87 63 89 / 80 20 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 86 65 86 63 88 / 80 20 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 85 65 84 58 86 / 80 40 0 0 0.
After these clouds move to the east of the region mostly sunny skies will prevail as the region will be in between a high pressure system across the central Plains and a low pressure system across Hudson Bay. The high will drift further southeast tonight and Wednesday as the low pressure system fills in a bit and drifts east. Highs on Wednesday will trend warmer; ranging from the middle to upper 70s across the north with lower 80s across east-central Wisconsin.
Lower to the surface, we start with high pressure overhead, moving southeast. Will stick with NBM for highs today and Wednesday, though under favorable radiational conditions tonight will bump the lows a degree or two off NBM especially for notorious overachievers like KABR.
Behind that feature a 1020 MB ridge center was dumping down the northwestern plains, with a cyclonic northwest flow pressure gradient tightening to the east acrs the upper MS RVR Valley and western GRT LKS. Aloft, the current water vapor loop was indicating a sharp upper trof axis right overhead, with leeside baroclinic leaf moisture plume streaming from TX to Quebec Canada. Incoming LLVL ridge pressure gradient and mixing profiles up to H85 MB support breezy northwest winds today of 15-25 MPH. A bit of fair wx cumulus may form, but overall expect sunny skies under incoming short wave upper ridging. Clear skies, decreasing/decoupling sfc winds in high pressure regime should lead to seasonably cool low temps in the 50s, with a few cool air drainage areas possibly dipping into the lower 50s.
1005 PM CDT Mon Aug 29 2022 (Issued 1005 PM CDT Mon Aug 29 2022) We could see an increase in cloud cover as the 500 mb trough and positive vorticity advection swing through late tonight into early Tuesday morning. Northwest winds will pick up behind the cold front Tuesday morning. RAH (Issued 315 PM CDT Mon Aug 29 2022) Tonight through Tuesday night: The storms have pushed out of the area and while the front lags a bit behind no further storms are expected with most of the area seeing much drier air pushing in in the low to mid levels. Overnight we expect a large UL trough to roll through but despite the large forcing associated moisture will be non-existent keeping us dry. Into the day Tuesday high pressure will push further east centered to the southeast of the CWA.
The main forecast concern in the short-term portion of the forecast will be the potential for lingering showers and an isolated thunderstorm early in the day as a cold front passes through the area from northwest to southeast. High pressure will build in behind the front, keeping tranquil weather in place for the Quad State area. As the high slides overhead, tonight, there could be some patchy ground fog that forms as the recent rainfall contributes to increased low-level moisture below the temperature inversion. Overnight lows will be cooler in the 50s to around 60.
Late last night, the GOES-16 water vapor showed a moist plume of rich tropical moisture entrenched in the Lower and Middle Keys. Today and Wednesday, weather conditions are forecast to be tranquil due to high pressure over the area and drier air in atmospheric column to induce showers and thunderstorms. Daytime high temperatures will be near the 90s and overnight lows in the lower 80s.
526 AM MDT Tue Aug 30 2022 High pressure continues to build across the western US today, bringing some late summertime heat to Wyoming. The strong ridge will also provide subsidence, keeping skies nearly clear through the day, with only daytime CU above highest mountain peaks. The high pressure in the vicinity will help keep winds down again today and tomorrow, with minimal gusts near 15 mph in isolated areas.
517 AM EDT Tue Aug 30 2022 Showers and storms will persist until a cold frontal passage Tuesday night. Conditions will generally be drier and cooler for late-week. This threat area will coincide with the ridges, where the DCAPE max will lie in the afternoon. The cold front itself will likely pass overnight. There is high confidence that there will be a late-week cooldown behind the aforementioned cold front.
Hot temperatures and dry conditions will continue across most of the region into the Labor Day weekend as a dome of high pressure settles over the southwest.
Atlantic ridge axis resides across south central FL today, with low level winds out of the S/SW. Highs will again reach the low 90s with humid conditions continuing to lead to peak heat index values in the triple digits, up to 102-107 this afternoon. (Modified Previous Discussion) Atlantic ridge continues to dominate the local waters today, with generally favorable boating conditions expected.
604 AM CDT Tue Aug 30 2022 As the upper level trough currently entering the Great Lakes region continues east, its associated front will advance through the CWA. As the progressing trough deepens over the eastern CONUS, a ridge will build in the west. In the lower levels, cooler, drier air will advect in as high pressure builds into the region. The disparity between the cool nighttime air and warmer water temperatures will favor the development of river valley fog tonight.
A weather system late in the week may usher in cooler temperatures again along with breezy winds and elevate fire concerns.
555 AM CDT Tue Aug 30 2022 No updates needed at this time, today will be much warmer with temperatures in the mid to upper 80s. This is due to the high pressure in the Four Corners and the large upper level ridge. With the thermal ridge also nudging into western North Dakota, temperatures today will range from the lower 80s in the east, up to the upper 80s in the west. As the thermal ridge continues to build in, temperatures throughout the week will warm into the 90s.
For the holiday weekend temperatures will over 10 degrees above normal as high pressure strengthens across the area. Currently there is a ridge over the Great Basin. This morning the water vapor satellite shows an upper level trough moving up the west side of the ridge and into Oregon.
627 AM CDT Tue Aug 30 2022 An upper level ridge will strengthen and expand across the desert southwest over the next few days and will remain nearly stationary throughout the 7 day forecast period.
After a rather active few hours overnight last night for at least the Lower Keys, the KBYX radar is now showing an echo-free forecast area. The Atlantic ridge is still dominating the region, and is currently maintaining mainly gentle southeast to south breezes along the Reef. Although the amplitude of the tides has peaked, boaters and residents should still plan for large changes in the high and low tides, with more scope needed in spring and dock lines, and less clearance available under the lowest bridges during high tide.
636 AM CDT Tue Aug 30 2022 Clear skies are prevailing and ideal radiational conditions resulted in some locations cooling into the 40s this morning (most other s were in the low to mid 50s as originally forecast). Large scale ridging is continuing to build to the west while the upper low has transitioned further east over Ontario, with very dry/stable northwest flow over our CWA. As temperatures are slowly moderating aloft and good mixing is anticipated we should see highs in the 80s from the RRV to the west (70s to the east) and a few degrees warmer on Wednesday with even less cloud cover due to stronger influence of the building ridge.