Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
The weather pattern will change Sunday as an upper level trough moves into the area.
131 AM EDT Sat Jun 15 2019 Cool Canadian high pressure will move offshore today. The cool temperatures will end today as high pressure will gradually move offshore. A return SW flow will combine with full sunshine to send highs back into the lower to mid 80s. Lows are expected to be milder than recent nights, with mostly upper 50s along the NC/VA border ranging into the lower to mid 60s elsewhere. It will feel like mid-June again on Sunday as dew points recover into the lower to mid 60s, while highs reach the mid to upper 80s with mostly sunny skies.
358 AM EDT Sat Jun 15 2019 High pressure influences wane through Saturday. This will be the last of the lower dewpoints and dry weather for a while as we are in for a significant pattern change. The today period is dry, but an upper level trough axis and surface front brings rain chances back into the fold tonight.
904 PM MDT Fri Jun 14 2019 Wave over eastern MT moving into ND with trof extending to the south across eastern WY. Thunderstorm activity ahead of trof is diminishing as CAPE values are decreasing and should be ending by midnight. Surface trof has moved into central SD with northwest winds and lower dewpoints behind it.
125 AM EDT Sat Jun 15 2019 Next upper low that will drop into the mean eastern North America trough is currently located over far northwestern Ontario.
First, we have an upper trough over North Dakota and this feature will drift southeast.
An upper level trough will glide across the Ohio Valley today bringing some high level clouds to the Southern Appalachian region.
High pressure will continue to provide warm and dry weather to the area today. The wave should be draped from southern Siskiyou county through Modoc county by later afternoon and this will combine with some low level convergence as the thermal trough moves inland.
Thunderstorms last evening into early this morning developed across west central and south central Illinois on the nose of the low level jet. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to become more widespread again tonight across the CWA ahead of a cold front that will begin to move south.
Weak southeast flow in the lowest 10k feet will help to keep the west coast sea breeze closer to the coast this afternoon and focus thunderstorm development along and just east the I-75 corridor, mainly south of I-4.
529 AM EDT Sat Jun 15 2019 High pressure ridges through the area today. A cold front will slowly cross the region later tonight through Sunday.
with restrictions eventually to IFR overnight as the lower levels saturate.
but the winds will slowly diminish as the low level jet slowly weakens for the remainder of the night. highest values will be up north closer to the low level jet. we will feature the highest POPs along and south of I94. As a result, here in MI, any significant warmup attempt will have to dislodge this cooler airmass which looks unlikely to happen. this should act to expand the lower clouds and visibilities.
The southerly winds will also bring in warmer air and afternoon highs should climb into the 80s across most valley locations. Chattanooga Airport, TN 87 68 89 70 / 0 0 20 20 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 86 66 87 69 / 0 0 20 20 Oak Ridge, TN 86 66 87 69 / 0 0 20 20 Tri Cities Airport, TN 83 60 86 66 / 0 0 20 20.
Pattern synopsis and forecast: A closed upper level area of low pressure continues to spin over Ontario, only slowly sliding ESE. This will help push the cold front through nrn Michigan today, with weak high pressure settling in tonight. High temperatures will be in the mid to upper 60s most areas, with lows tonight mainly in the low to mid 40s.
745 AM EDT Sat Jun 15 2019 WV imagery and RAP analysis indicated a mid/upper level low southwest of James Bay resulting in cyclonic westerly flow through the northern Great Lakes. At the surface, a cold front had sagged southward into far southern upper michigan leaving light northerly flow through most of Upper Michigan. Today, After the showers over the south exit to the east early, expect the surface ridging from nw Ontario to build into Upper Michigan bringing mostly sunny skies and seasonably cool conditions.
Increasing moisture ahead of an upper level trough along with an unstable air mass from daytime heating, will produce scattered showers and a few thunderstorms inland by mid morning and persisting until sunset.
After yesterdays warmer temperatures and storms, expect Saturday and Sunday to be slightly cooler and less active. Any storms that are to develop will be confined to the higher terrain and foothills and die out as they move into the plains. High temperatures will be in the low to mid 70s.
651 AM PDT Sat Jun 15 2019 Weak low pressure aloft will maintain typical June weather with near to slightly below normal daytime temperatures and marine clouds and fog spreading well inland each night. With weak ridging and warming aloft, expect strengthening and lowering of the inversion today which could delay clearing inland and make it difficult along the immediate coast. The forecast grids were updated to use the high resolution 06Z model data which lowered max temps and kept a bit more low cloud at the coast into the afternoon.
1007 AM EDT Sat Jun 15 2019 High pressure is beginning to push offshore the Carolinas.
A thermal trough will remain in place near the coast through the coming week. High pressure will continue to provide warm and dry weather to the area today. The wave should be draped from southern Siskiyou county through Modoc county by later afternoon and this will combine with some low level convergence as the thermal trough moves inland.
Larger scale flow pattern is that of westerly flow aloft as a weak trough near the Four Corners region moves east today.
Convection should trend down over land late eve and focus more over the warmer waters overnight. /issued 322 AM EDT Sat Jun 15 2019/ Short term (Today-Sunday): A stationary boundary draped across Central Florida will slowly dissipate and allow for high pressure to continue building to our NE through the day. Through the weekend, model soundings depict the low-level steering flow becoming more NE and then E/SE as weak, mid-level ridging briefly becomes established aloft.
Southerly return flow has commenced across the area and we are 15-20 degrees warmer than we were 24 hours ago. Dew points today will be in the 60s compared to the 40s yesterday with temperatures topping out in the low 80s on the plateau and the mid to upper 80s elsewhere.
For temperatures, onshore flow keeps I-95 and coastal areas cooler in the mid to upper 80s with inland areas climbing into the lower 90s.
420 AM PDT Sat Jun 15 2019 Weak low pressure aloft will maintain typical June weather with near to slightly below normal daytime temperatures and marine clouds and fog spreading well inland each night.
Surface analysis early this morning shows a warm front thru sw IL/IA and extending to 1001 mb low pressure over southeast SD. A short wave trof over eastern KS is forecast to track to near the IL/MO border by 18Z/1 pm today and into central IN by 7 pm this evening. Warm front lifting into central IL today, will get pushed back south later tonight into Sunday morning. Warmer highs Sunday in the low to mid 80s.
Surface ridging will remain east of the area today, with pressure falling to the west. Temperatures will be several degrees warmer this afternoon, with afternoon highs expected to top out in the mid 80s to lower 90s.
646 AM EDT Sat Jun 15 2019 High pressure will extend into the area from offshore through the weekend. High pressure will move further into the Atlantic Basin today with a pressure ridge extending into the forecast area. Temperatures a little warmer and more seasonable around 90 in the afternoon. Mostly clear in the evening then some early morning clouds and a little warmer with continued weak south- southwest flow.
Northwest to northeast surface winds will keep the area slightly cooler with temperatures mainly in the 70s.
TFJ An upper low will remain over Saskatchewan and Manitoba the next few days.
502 AM EDT Sat Jun 15 2019 WV imagery and RAP analysis indicated a mid/upper level low southwest of James Bay resulting in cyclonic westerly flow through the northern Great Lakes. At the surface, a cold front had sagged southward into far southern upper michigan leaving light northerly flow through most of Upper Michigan. Today, After the showers over the south exit to the east early, expect the surface ridging from nw Ontario to build into Upper Michigan bringing mostly sunny skies and seasonably cool conditions.
935 AM EDT Sat Jun 15 2019 Cool Canadian high pressure will move offshore this afternoon, allowing southwest flow to return across central North Carolina.
This activity is associated with a poorly defined mid level trough.
The lower layer will scatter out to large degree during much of the overnight period.
with restrictions eventually deteriorating to IFR overnight as the lower levels saturate.
Temperatures across the forecast area range from the mid to upper 80s with heat indices in the low to mid 90s.
152 PM EDT Sat Jun 15 2019 Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb trough over the Great Lakes region and a baggy trough in the Rockies and troughing over the northern plains and Canadian Rockies this morning. The trough in the northern plains moves into the upper Great lakes by 00z Mon.
402 PM EDT Sat Jun 15 2019 Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb trough over the Great Lakes region and a baggy trough in the Rockies and troughing over the northern plains and Canadian Rockies this morning. The trough in the northern plains moves into the upper Great lakes by 00z Mon.
Upper ridge over the region this weekend with a dry airmass.
The exception to this is chances for rain showers lingering north of US Hwy 2, in particular for the Devils Lake basin in close proximity to the nearly stacked upper level low eastern SK/western MB overnight. Close proximity of the upper low and cloudy skies will mean cooler weather persisting with another day of high temperatures only reaching the 60s on Sunday.
Latest surface analysis indicates low pressure centered over TX Rolling Plains with front across central KS and nwrn OK.
This front will take a few degrees off the high temperatures Sunday afternoon mainly across the Permian Basin.
307 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2019 Storm development is expected to continue in the high plains of eastern NM and CO and then near a dryline in the Panhandles into west TX.
134 PM EDT Sat Jun 15 2019 High pressure will extend into the area from offshore through Sunday.
There is still a cu field across our Kansas counties and although the chance is very low, we could still see an isolated thunderstorm just north of the cold front across our far southeastern counties through early evening. Temperatures will remain near normal with highs in the lower 80s under mostly clear skies.
108 PM EDT Sat Jun 15 2019 WV imagery and RAP analysis indicated a mid/upper level low southwest of James Bay resulting in cyclonic westerly flow through the northern Great Lakes. At the surface, a cold front had sagged southward into far southern upper michigan leaving light northerly flow through most of Upper Michigan. Today, After the showers over the south exit to the east early, expect the surface ridging from nw Ontario to build into Upper Michigan bringing mostly sunny skies and seasonably cool conditions.
Temperatures will be a degree or two warmer on Sunday with breezy conditions expected once again and heat indicies in the 105 to 109 range.
The pockets of clearing should allow warmer temps heading into the 70s to near 80. Otherwise bulk of rainfall looks to split the terminals north and south although can not rule out VCTS invof KFWA for a short time this evening in assocn/w upper low pivoting out of ern MO.
344 PM EDT Sat Jun 15 2019 A cold front will usher another round of showers into NY and PA tonight and Sunday. High temperatures in the lower-70s are forecast. High pressure will briefly build southward Sunday night and bring an end to the rain north of the Southern Tier. High pressure tries to build in from Ontario and push the front to the south.
The activity will begin to decrease in intensity during the early morning hours as the low-level jet weakens.
Winds to decouple this evening with the modest pressure gradient remaining in tact through Sunday as the mid-level trough will be slightly slower moving east maintaining breezy conditions Sunday.
/Issued 1007 AM EDT Sat Jun 15 2019/ High pressure is beginning to push offshore the Carolinas.
Dry air continues to hold off rain showers for portions of our region, the low-level water vapor satellite displays the best moisture in Eastern Ohio. A brief break from precipitation is forecasted to occur early Sunday afternoon before a quick upper-level trough moves into Central Ohio.
A weak cold front will move into the area on Sunday morning between 09z and 15z. Today will be hot once again with tomorrow slightly cooler due to the appearance of a weak cold front.
Once the trough opens into a wave tonight, we'll see the potential for storms to become more organized over the Rolling Plains after sunset. Sunday will be cooler as upper level heights lower behind the exiting trough and northwest flow aloft sets in over a weak cold front that filters in behind tonights convection.
235 PM EDT Sat Jun 15 2019 High pressure has moved offshore this afternoon. Along with the higher dewpoints, increased diurnal cloud cover will occur. The mtns should have the highest chances (around 30 percent) with the remainder of the area around 20 percent.
Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Closed upper-level low pressure is slowly pushing into western Quebec this afternoon with a trailing cold front continuing to make progress across northeast lower MI. Scattered showers continue to linger across southern parts of the forecast area early this afternoon (primarily along and south of M- 55) with pockets of drizzle extending further north and west toward the M-72 corridor as the aforementioned cold front continues to trek off to the east-southeast. Stubborn low clouds remain in place south of M-32 with increasing sunshine across the Tip of the Mitt and abundant sunshine north of the Mackinac Bridge. Low temperatures expected to vary from the low- mid 40s area-wide, but wouldn't be completely surprised to wake up tomorrow morning to a few locations in the upper 30s given a decent radiational cooling setup overnight.
128 PM MDT Sat Jun 15 2019 An upper low spins over the Hudson Bay area, while a ridge builds over the western CONUS, placing the northern plains in northwest flow. Another upper low is over southern Saskatchewan and Manitoba, sparking some storms over ND and eastern SD. Beneath high pressure, mostly dry weather will continue this afternoon and evening. With cooler temperatures, instability will be weak to marginal, and so not expecting much for severe weather at this time.
314 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2019 High pressure over the area with clouds filtering in from the west this afternoon. A low pressure center over Iowa will slowly move east and bring precipitation to a good portion of the forecast area. Chances for showers remain on Sunday as an upper level trough continues its pivot around the Northern Plains.
A low amplitude upper level ridge over the northwest coast will keep our area warm with mostly sunny skies through the weekend. Models show increasing mid level moisture in light west- northwest flow aloft through the ridge.
With an upper low sitting over southern Sask/Manitoba, NW flow will continue into Sunday, where another round of showers/tstorms move through Sunday.
The approach of another weak wave has helped spawn agitated cumulus along and just behind a surface cold front in far northern Kansas and southern Nebraska into far northern Missouri. Cold front is anticipated to slide south towards the southern forecast area by midday Sunday.
Isolated showers overnight will still be possible, especially in the northern counties with a weak closed upper low deepening over southern Saskatchewan/Manitoba. On Sunday, chances for isolated showers in the afternoon with the upper low center moving over northern North Dakota and weak DCVA placed over the state. Sunday night through mid-week, the upper low developing over southern Canada today will slowly move over the northern plains through the upper midwest.
At the surface a ridge is stretched from the Atlantic into the southeast states while low pressure over over the Texas Panhandle. The gradient between the ridge and low is keeping the local area in a moderate onshore flow which has returned higher moisture values when compared to yesterday and the day before.
A cold front was located across northern KS this afternoon with isolated to widely sct tsra developing near and behind the front. There is some indication that additional storms may develop near the 850mb boundary after sunset so will keep the higher chances for storms across areas south of I-70 after midnight. For now will keep the low chance POPS for Sunday night across our southeast but may end up being dry if trends persist.
Of the 3 synoptic models, the Euro hangs on to the trough the longest on Sunday over portions of eastern Iowa. Sunday will see afternoon readings in the mid 70s north to the lower 80s in the south.
Clear to mostly clear conditions earlier this afternoon will give way to increasing clouds late day as convection develops over southeast Colorado and an upper level trough approaches from the southwest. In addition to the lower clouds a period of gusty winds will also accompany these storms, especially in the Liberal area.
Deepening low pressure in the Texas Panhandle will result in breezy conditions with S-SE winds 15-20 with gusts of 25 knots possible this aftn and early evening.
The main threats from the storms will be damaging winds, large hail, and possibly a brief isolated tornado near the warm front. Additional cells then develop near the warm front over southeast Minnesota and northeast Iowa. If this occurs we could see some bowing segments and cannot rule out a very brief QLCS tornado near the warm front. A few showers may linger over the area on Sunday before ending as a very weak ridge moves over region.
A brief break from precipitation is forecasted to occur early Sunday afternoon before a quick upper-level trough moves into Central Ohio.
The current upper air pattern reveals dry cyclonic northwesterly flow across the region just west of a trough axis that is exiting to the east, and downstream of a west coast ridge axis. A dry flow pattern from the west with enough troughing to keep heights suppressed is expected to persist until at least late this week. On Sunday a weak transitory ridge moves across the Desert Southwest.
529 PM MDT Sat Jun 15 2019 An upper low spins over the Hudson Bay area, while a ridge builds over the western CONUS, placing the northern plains in northwest flow. Another upper low is over southern Saskatchewan and Manitoba, sparking some storms over ND and eastern SD. Beneath high pressure, mostly dry weather will continue this afternoon and evening. With cooler temperatures, instability will be weak to marginal, and so not expecting much for severe weather at this time.
More humid airmass is being advected in from the southwest overnight, so lows tonight about 10 degrees warmer than this mornings lows. With slightly cooler dew points in the northeast and light winds and just high clouds overnight.
Overnight low temperatures are expected to be right around seasonal, with lows in the low 50s over the plains, the 40s over the San Luis Valley (SLV) and upper Arkansas River Valley (Upper Ark), and in the 30s over the mountains.
otherwise expecting dry and warmer areawide. Temperatures across the forecast area range from the mid to upper 80s with heat indices in the low to mid 90s.
As these storms marched west, some showers and storms developed along the west coast sea breeze around 20Z with the highest coverage over Lee County. High pressure will continue to build and slide east off the Mid- Atlantic coast, providing east to southeast winds for the next couple of days before winds turn onshore with the sea breeze.
/Issued 235 PM EDT Sat Jun 15 2019/ High pressure has moved offshore this afternoon. Along with the higher dewpoints, increased diurnal cloud cover will occur. The mtns should have the highest chances (around 30 percent) with the remainder of the area around 20 percent.
722 PM EDT Sat Jun 15 2019 High pressure will extend into the area from offshore through Sunday.
Given the high precip chances overnight along with wet ground conditions, have opted for a flash flood watch for much of eastern OK the remainder of the night.
420 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2019 Low pressure system continued to make its way toward the Oklahoma Texas Panhandles this afternoon. thunderstorms are forecast to continue to spread through the CWA while the surface boundary remains nearly stationary just northwest of the CWA and the low pressure system approaches. Thunderstorms are forecast to be ongoing Sunday morning with additional development Sunday afternoon/night as the upper low moves through the region.
1035 PM EDT Sat Jun 15 2019 Water vapor imagery highlights a mid-upper level ridge centered over the extreme Western Caribbean. Low level ridging centered near Bermuda is fractured over Florida, and reconstitutes as an anticyclone over the north-central Gulf of Mexico. It's hard to determine if these winds aloft paint the northern flank of the mid-upper level ridge, or the southwestern flank of a developing weakness. High pressure will remain over the western Atlantic during the next several days.
Min temps in the low to mid 70s which is close to seasonal norms. 12Z GFS/ECM indicate a developing mid level low at 500 mbs across south FL Sunday afternoon which will deepen S/SE flow in the low to mid levels Sunday and allow PWATs to increase over two inches.
For this evening, the greatest chance of rain will be over the mountains and adjacent foothills as the higher terrain helps to initiate convective activity. The thunderstorms can then move off the higher terrain over to the plains before diminishing due to some warmer air aloft/capping. It appears that shower and thunderstorm coverage should then be a bit greater on Sunday as a larger-scale upper trough moves over the region.
An upper level ridge of high pressure will remain over the region providing warm and dry conditions. A weak system riding up and over the ridge on Sunday will induce a little more westerly winds especially along the east slopes of the Cascades in the afternoon and evening.
720 PM EDT Sat Jun 15 2019 Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb trough over the Great Lakes region and a baggy trough in the Rockies and troughing over the northern plains and Canadian Rockies this morning. The trough in the northern plains moves into the upper Great lakes by 00z Mon.
607 PM EDT Sat Jun 15 2019 High pressure will extend into the area from offshore through Sunday.
Big challenge for tonight into Sunday will be the ability of the atmosphere to maintain enough instability for showers and thunderstorms further south in weak ridging, weakening shear, and instability over the southern section of the WFO PAH forecast area.
The low will ride along the stalled surface boundary.
Meanwhile, the low level ridging in place will shift southeastward slightly, bringing a steady return flow of moisture to the area. Temperatures will be near normal, with highs in the low 90s and lows in the low 70s.
A slightly deeper upper level trough will move across the plains Monday and bring more rain to the area.
Will also need to keep eye on the thunderstorms across southeast Kansas into southwest Missouri in the vicinity of a cold front.
On Sunday, the weak ridge over the region will remain in place. Areas of MVFR cigs will move into the lower basin tonight, but likely not as far as KRBG. The lower conditions will persist into Sunday morning, burning off to VFR by late morning.