Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
604 PM CDT FRI JUL 22 2016 12z Upper-air analysis revealed a mid-level high centered over northern Oklahoma/southern Kansas with a ridge axis extending northwest through the northern High Plains to the lee of the Canadian Rockies. In the low levels, early afternoon mesoanalysis indicates a weak front/trough stretching from northwest Iowa through northeast and south-central Nebraska into northwest Kansas. A weak perturbation over Wyoming this afternoon will crest the mid-level ridge axis over the mid Missouri Valley tonight before shifting east of the area Saturday. On Saturday, areas of clouds and isolated storms may linger through part of the morning before giving way to another day of hot and humid conditions ahead of a cold front approaching our area from the northwest.
1010 PM EDT FRI JUL 22 2016 Skies are partly to mostly cloudy with temperatures averaging in the lower 80s along the Florida Keys. Surface wise, a decayed and broad Western Atlantic ridge is aligned across the sunshine state and extends well into the Gulf of Mexico.
Current surface map shows low over southeast Montana with trof into the Nebraska Panhandle. Cold front crosses northeast Wyoming and western South Dakota late tonight. Highs 10-15F cooler for Saturday.
Upper low in Washington and trough extending south from the low brought breezy and cooler weather to our CWA today. Saturday will be even cooler, by several degrees, as the trough axis passes through.
607 PM PDT Fri Jul 22 2016 Low pressure will exit the region tonight.
627 PM CDT FRI JUL 22 2016 This morning's H5 analysis had high pressure centered over the Oklahoma panhandle. North of the high, ridging extended north into the Dakotas. West of this ridge, a trough of low pressure was located over western Washington and extended south into northern California. Overall shear is quite weak again today within subtropical plume around upper level high pressure centered to our south, but surface based cape is very strong.
There will be no restrictions as this boundary takes most of the night to settle through SE Michigan and as weak high pressure follows from the upper Midwest. Downsloping off the glacial ridge appears to be the only explanation. The heat advisory will not be extended due to the low humidity as well as the opportunity for relief tonight as dewpoints fall.
1228 AM EDT SAT JUL 23 2016 A cold front will cross the area tonight. A secondary cold front will move through on Saturday and push offshore Saturday night.
Upper level high pressure remains stationary over the southern plains. Upper level high pressure remains stationary over the southern plains. The 599 dam 500 mb ridge is expected to slowly retrograde to west the next few days.
VFR will then continue through the day as weak high pressure follows and produces light/variable wind becoming light northwest by afternoon. A combination of the high exiting eastward and lake breeze consolidation will produce light easterly wind by Saturday evening. Downsloping off the glacial ridge appears to be the only explanation. The heat advisory will not be extended due to the low humidity as well as the opportunity for relief tonight as dewpoints fall.
Fries We will remain in northwest flow situated between the broad ridge/trough pattern across the central and eastern CONUS. With dewpoints staying in the low 70's over Ohio, heat indices will approach 100.
The mid levels weren't much of a hinderence last night and they are cooler tonight.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS UNDER THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE.
(Issued 254 PM CDT FRI JUL 22 2016) The 19z surface analysis indicated that a weak trough was moving southward out of western Kentucky and an area of showers/storms were developing along and ahead of the boundary.
748 PM EDT FRI JUL 22 2016 A weak cold front over the northern Great Lakes will sag south across the area late tonight or early Saturday.
19Z Water Vapor Imagery and RAP analysis indicated large 597 ridge centered over eastern New Mexico. A few storms will form off the higher terrain and push east tonight but with winds aloft weak and shear minimal not expect to see a lot of organization. Another round of elevated storms possible tonight along edge of H7 thermal ridge. Cold front will work its way across Nebraska through the day. Instability should be favorable for severe weather, but wind shear rather weak in warm humid airmass south of front/trough. Somewhat cooler temperatures are anticipated after the passage of a cold front over the weekend.
More stable and much drier air is moving into the area from the west as Livingston's dewpoint is down into the upper 30s with Billings in the lower 40s. At the surface, a cold front will move across the forecast area this evening and overnight. Drier and somewhat cooler air will usher in behind the front especially across southeast Montana with overnight lows about 5 to 8 degrees cooler than last night. Temperatures reach well into the upper 90s to the low 100s over the Plains this afternoon with compressional warming ahead of an approaching cold front.
upper low continues to move east into northern Idaho this evening. Temperatures will be much cooler than last night with lows in the 40s and 50s.
Sea breeze and outflow mergers converged across the interior this evening from the Highway 301 corridor in NE Fl northward across the Okefenokee Swamp and west toward I-75 across SE Ga. Lingering debris clouds will fade after midnight with high pressure in control. Patchy ground fog possible overnight where heavy rainfall fell today with overnight lows falling into the lower 70s inland to mid/upper 70s along the Atlantic coast.
Cold front is nearing NW WY and will make its way east and south overnight with some increased wind speeds. A rather strong pacific low pressure trough for mid summer will pass through western and central wyoming this evening. Ahead of the trough scattered showers with embedded thunderstorms will move through the area. A surface cold front will move through with the upper level trough with a wind shift to the west northwest with clearing. strong wind gusts for a few hours behind the cold front should be expected. Cooler dry air will move in later tonight and Saturday. Saturday night Through Friday Cooler dry air is expected over the area Saturday night.
Strengthening high pressure across most of the south and southeast states will keep Florida under a generally light easterly and southeasterly flow tonight and possibly through most of the weekend.
Weak high pressure will remain in control tonight with clear to partly cloudy skies and generally light winds tonight.
The high will remain in place but weaken slightly. The Pac NW trof will head into Canada tonight into tomorrow. Surface: A SW-NE oriented sfc trof bisected KS/Neb. with a warm front developing and lifting N and E into SD/IA. Peak Dwpts Today: Aurora 81F Kearney 79F York 79F Grand Island 77F Ord 77F What compounded these dwpts was winds were much lighter/calm near the sfc trof. Forcing is on the low end of the mesoscale and weak. Aloft: Zonal flow over the Nrn USA will gradually transition to a slight Wrn ridge/Ern trof. 2) Return much cooler (actually near normal) temps. VFR conditions are expected as an upper level ridge is in primary control.
Convective activity in the wake of the cold front has moved to eastern Montana. Radar returns over northwest Montana are associated with the upper trof axis as it continues to approach from the west. Surface cold front will move across the area overnight. W to E moving cold front ahead of the trough has entered NW MT and will sweep east across the forecast area late this afternoon through early this evening. Primary threat from storms today will be strong winds due to a dry low-level airmass, particularly over SW MT with increasing winds aloft also contributing to the high wind threat.
1136 PM CDT FRI JUL 22 2016 12z Upper-air analysis revealed a mid-level high centered over northern Oklahoma/southern Kansas with a ridge axis extending northwest through the northern High Plains to the lee of the Canadian Rockies. In the low levels, early afternoon mesoanalysis indicates a weak front/trough stretching from northwest Iowa through northeast and south-central Nebraska into northwest Kansas. A weak perturbation over Wyoming this afternoon will crest the mid-level ridge axis over the mid Missouri Valley tonight before shifting east of the area Saturday. On Saturday, areas of clouds and isolated storms may linger through part of the morning before giving way to another day of hot and humid conditions ahead of a cold front approaching our area from the northwest.
Following the leading edge of the 3hr pressure rises places the surface cold front near/along a line from near Glasgow to Billings. The cold front will reach far western ND 12z Saturday, then central ND 18z. Mesoscale analysis indicated that the best instability with surface based CAPE values from 1500-4000+ J/Kg was in place along and south of this warm front. The upper level low/trough moves eastward across North Dakota on Saturday, providing a series of upper level impulses that will support the several rounds of thunderstorms expected this afternoon through tonight and into Saturday. Saturday afternoon the upper level trough is moving through central North Dakota, and lingering thunderstorms would be over and exiting the James Valley by late afternoon/early evening.
920 PM EDT FRI JUL 22 2016 A weak cold front over the northern Great Lakes will sag south across the area late tonight or early Saturday.
647 PM EDT SUN MAY 8 2016 A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND BECOME CENTERED OVER PENNSYLVANIA MONDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL DRIFT NORTH INTO THE STATE FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD. BRINGING WARMER TEMPERATURES. MONDAY LOOKS SEASONABLY MILD /WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S/ AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION BRINGS LIGHTER WIND AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. SOME OF THE HIGHEST TERRAIN UP NORTH. HIGHER PWAT AIR GLIDING UP AND OVER THE SLOWLY ADVANCING WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE MIDDLE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS WILL PUSH A BKN-OVC LAYER OF ALTOCU OVER THE SCENT AND SW ZONES MONDAY. AND THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL LIE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE INTERIM.
149 PM CDT SUN MAY 8 2016 A BUSY SURFACE PATTERN IS COMING TOGETHER ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED JUST EAST OF THE MID STATE AS RETURN FLOW IS BEGINNING TO ADVECT HIGHER DEW POINTS ACROSS THE FAR NW CORNER OF THE LOCAL AREA. AT THE SAME TIME, A QUASI- STATION BOUNDARY REMAINS JUST TO OUR NORTH WHILE RUNNING RIGHT THROUGH THE COL AREA FORMED BY HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS TO OUR NORTH AND SOUTH AND LOW PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND WEST. LOOK FOR MOISTURE ADVECTION TO CONTINUE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW AS THE SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES AND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO OUR WEST EDGES CLOSER TO THE MID STATE.
/ISSUED 1101 AM CDT SUN MAY 8 2016/ PLEASANT MORNING ACROSS THE TN VALLEY WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S TO THE LOWER 60S WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. WITH THE RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. TEMP TREND THIS MORNING IS RUNNING 5-10 DEGREES WARMER THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY. THEREFORE MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HOURLIES AND ALSO SLIGHTLY INCREASED THE HIGHS FOR TODAY. DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS AND MOVES SOUTHEAST.
350 PM EDT SUN MAY 8 2016 A COLD FRONT STALLS ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT AND MONDAY.
311 PM CDT SUN MAY 8 2016 Upper low remains over the intermountain west at this time while a quasi-stationary surface front is situated from a low over north central Kansas across central Missouri into western Kentucky. The main event will take place on Monday as the low over the Rockies begins to eject under the influence of another upper level wave moving into the Pacific Northwest. As the low ejects.
THIS IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON AS A WARM FRONT. THE LOW-LEVELS ARE FAIRLY DRY THOUGH AND WITH THE SFC BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH.
213 PM CDT SUN MAY 8 2016 A NICE MOTHER'S DAY ACROSS THE TN VALLEY WITH TEMPS IN THE LOW/MID 80S UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. MONDAY STILL LOOKS TO BE MAINLY DRY THRU MUCH OF THE PERIOD, PROBABLY DUE TO WEAK RIDGING OVER MOST OF THE CWA.
142 PM PDT SUN MAY 8 2016 ALLOWING A DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW TO DEVELOP ALOFT FOR FAIR AND WARMER WEATHER THIS WEEK.
151 PM EDT SUN MAY 8 2016 A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL OUT FROM THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY TO THE CAROLINAS TODAY WHILE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE MOVES ACROSS OUR REGION. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY WORK ITS WAY NORTH AS A WARM FRONT INTO THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY ON MONDAY. SHOWERS MAY SHOW A WEAKENING TREND AS THE FRONT LIFTS INTO A DRIER AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL VARY FROM THE LOWER 60S SOUTH WHERE CLOUDS AND THE THREAT OF PCPN IS EXPECTED.
THE MAIN UPPER LOW THAT HAS IMPACTED THE AREA THE PAST FEW DAYS WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT.
307 PM CDT SUN MAY 8 2016 AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD TONIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS LOW. THIS WAVE WILL THEN LIFT TOWARD THE I 90 CORRIDOR BY 12Z MONDAY BRINGING A PSEUDO WARM FRONT AT THE SURFACE WITH IT. HOWEVER THE RAIN CHANCES WILL FILL IN AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS CONDITIONS DESTABILIZE A BIT IN FRONT OF THE ADVANCING UPPER LOW. PRECIPITATION SHOULD DECREASE MONDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW SWINGS TO THE EAST SIDE OF THE AREA IN MN AND THEN STARTS TO BE PUSHED NORTH NORTHEAST.
A WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING A FEW SHOWERS TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL FOR MOST OF THE REST OF THE WEEK FOR DRY AND WARMER WEATHER. AN UPPER TROUGH COULD BRING SOME SHOWERS LATE IN THE WEEK. BY MONDAY MORNING THE SMALL SHOWER THREAT SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE CASCADES AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST AND DRIER MORE STABLE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS FOR WESTERN WASHINGTON.
Drier and warmer weather returns for the upcoming week. The upper low which has brought 5 days of wet and stormy weather to the region is finally shifting eastward, with the core of the low now just north of the Four Corners region. Lingering moisture and instability on the western side of this low will bring one final afternoon of scattered showers and isolated to scattered thunderstorms. As the low continues to pull eastward tonight and drier northwesterly flow helps to scour out moisture, skies will begin to clear with no additional precipitation.
256 PM CDT SUN MAY 8 2016 Upper-level ridging has kept a lid on any convection this afternoon, despite the old surface boundary slicing right through the heart of the area. Overnight, as the upper ridge pushes to our east, the light shower activity will try to stream over much of our region, but especially southeast Missouri and southern Illinois.
AS THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND APPROACHES THE MID LEVEL RIDGE POSITION OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. THERE IS SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW MUCH TSTM ACTIVITY OF ANY INTENSITY WILL ACTUALLY MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA BASED ON SOME OF THE HIGH-RES GUIDANCE WHICH KEEP IT WEST OF US.
1236 PM CDT SUN MAY 8 2016 UPPER LOW CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WOBBLE NORTHEAST INTO THE HIGH PLAINS TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS AFTERNOON THE MAIN UPPER LOW NUDGES INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF NEBRASKA AND SOUTH DAKOTA.
348 PM CDT SUN MAY 8 2016 LARGE SCALE ASCENT CONTINUES TO SPREAD OVER THE REGION AHEAD OF A BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THE NEGATIVELY TITLED TROUGH WILL EMERGE ONTO THE PLAINS ON MONDAY WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
453 PM EDT SUN MAY 8 2016 A COLD FRONT STALLS ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT AND MONDAY.
THE UPPER LOW WILL FINALLY EXIT THE REGION TONIGHT BUT ANOTHER TROUGH WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. AFTER THE MONDAY NIGHTS TROUGH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM LAKE SUPERIOR SOUTHWARD INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY WILL DRIFT INTO MICHIGAN TONIGHT. FAIRLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TO OUR NORTH WILL GET SQUEEZED BY A TROUGH CURRENTLY OCCUPYING THE ROCKIES/EASTERN PLAINS REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME CENTERED OFF TO OUR EAST. WARMER MONDAY WITH HIGHS PUSHING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO MIDDLE 60S (A BIT COOLER NEAR LAKE HURON DUE TO THE ON-SHORE FLOW). LOWS MONDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM THE CHILLY UPPER 20S EAST TO THE LOWER 40S WEST. MILDER WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 NORTH TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S SOUTH.
MODELS HAVE THE UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING THROUGH THIS EVENING. THEN NORTHWESTERLY ON MONDAY BEHIND THE TROUGH AXIS. ESPECIALLY WITH THE UPPER LOW AROUND. MONDAY'S HIGHS ARE 3-4 C WARMER THAN THIS AFTERNOON'S READINGS. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER EASTERN COLORADO MONDAY EVENING. WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA.
Upper-level ridging has kept a lid on any convection this afternoon, despite the old surface boundary slicing right through the heart of the area. Overnight, as the upper ridge pushes to our east, the light shower activity will try to stream over much of our region, but especially southeast Missouri and southern Illinois.
311 PM EDT SUN MAY 8 2016 ALTHOUGH WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEK. WITH THE FRONT BRINGING WARMER AIR TO THE NORTH. THE LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT WILL MANAGE TO MOVE MORE QUICKLY THAN THE WARM FRONT. AND AS THE LOW TRACKS FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO QUEBEC. IT WILL EVENTUALLY DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION.
But significant changes are coming into view as a cold front and Canadian storm system are picking up strength over central British Columbia this afternoon. By Monday afternoon the cold front will help enhance precipitation across SW Montana and lower the snow level to around 5500ft.
MODELS AGREE ON THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINNING TO BREAK DOWN ON MONDAY AS WEAK DISTURBANCES KICKING EAST OF TEXAS CARVE OUT A MORE ACTIVE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
133 PM EDT SUN MAY 8 2016 A COLD FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS FROM TN TO NC THIS AFTERNOON.
347 PM EDT SUN MAY 8 2016 HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
WINDS WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT STRONG AND GUSTY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE DEEPENING OVER THE PLAINS AND HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. MAIN AVIATION ISSUE LOOKS TO BE ELEVATED SRLY WINDS THANKS TO A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS AND MOVES ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS. LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS WILL DEEPEN AND MOVE NE TODAY AND MONDAY WHILE HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTS TO THE EAST.
348 PM EDT SUN MAY 8 2016 A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LOW PRESSURE IN QUEBEC WILL INTENSIFY IN NORTHERN QUEBEC MONDAY AND PRODUCE VERY WINDY CONDITIONS.
554 PM EDT SUN MAY 8 2016 ALTHOUGH WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEK. WITH THE FRONT BRINGING WARMER AIR TO THE NORTH. THE LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT WILL MANAGE TO MOVE MORE QUICKLY THAN THE WARM FRONT. AND AS THE LOW TRACKS FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO QUEBEC. IT WILL EVENTUALLY DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION.
High pressure will continue to dominate at the surface and the area will remain dry through tonight. Low temperatures are expected to be a few degrees warmer Monday morning with lows in the upper 50s to lower 60s.
Parent upper low drifts aimlessly across South Dakota and Nebraska, with cyclonic flow persisting across Kansas. For Monday, the base of an upper level low and cold pool rotates into western Kansas with a slight chance for showers and thunderstorms mainly in the afternoon and early evening.
412 PM EDT SUN MAY 8 2016 A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER CENTRAL KENTUCKY WILL LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TONIGHT AND INTO MONDAY. BEFORE A RETURN OF SHOWERS MAINLY AFTER 06Z WITH THE NORTHWARD PUSH OF THE WARM FRONT. TIMING AND PLACEMENT STILL FAIRLY UNCERTAIN WITH A VARIETY OF TIMING SOLUTIONS AMONG MODELS AS THE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OUT OF THE AREA AND A TROUGH FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS APPROACHES THE MID OHIO VALLEY. COMPROMISED BETWEEN GFS/ECMWF AND NAM SOLUTIONS WITH WARM FRONTAL PROGRESSION NORTHWARD THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE DAY AND THEN STALLING AGAIN LATE ON MONDAY.
A COLD FRONT BRINGS IN DRIER BUT BREEZY CONDITIONS ON MONDAY AFTERNOON.
Parent upper low drifts aimlessly across South Dakota and Nebraska, with cyclonic flow persisting across Kansas.
UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE ROCKIES WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY. AN EMBEDDED S/W TROUGH WILL HELP DEVELOP CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO WHICH SOME WILL MOVE INTO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS OVERNIGHT. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WILL CONTINUE MONDAY MORNING UNTIL THE S/W TROUGH PIVOTS THROUGH AND DRY AIR FILTERS IN BEHIND IT.
355 PM EDT SUN MAY 8 2016 A WARM FRONT WAS SITUATED NEAR THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE JKL FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE WARM FRONT WILL VERY SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD.
328 PM CDT SUN MAY 8 2016 A TRANSITION DAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE HAS MOVED OFF TO THE EAST AND LOWER PRESSURE IS FORMING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE QUESTION IS WILL MID LEVEL RIDGING HANG AROUND ENOUGH TO SUPPRESS CONVECTION. A DISTURBANCE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND DAYTIME HEATING MAY BE ENOUGH TO GET SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GOING.
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN ARIZONA THROUGH THIS EVENING AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SLOWLY MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER IS IN STORE THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS BACK IN ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST.
A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH WHICH HAS DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON WILL LEAD TO VARIABLE WINDS INTO THIS EVENING. WITH THE RIDGE MOVING TO THE EAST MONDAY.
355 PM EDT SUN MAY 8 2016 A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL CONTINUE PERIODICALLY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL BE COOLER THAN TODAY. ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.
WOULD EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE UNTIL SUNSET AS LOWER AND MID LEVEL GRADIENTS TIGHTEN WITH APPROACH OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH NOW MAKING GOOD HEADWAY EAST ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO.
206 PM EDT SUN MAY 8 2016 A FRONT STALLED NEAR THE NORTH CAROLINA BORDER THROUGH TONIGHT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE BACK NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT MONDAY.
1130 AM MDT SUN MAY 8 2016 A POWERFUL UPPER LOW REMAINS INTACT OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN CONUS THIS AM COURTESY OF A REX BLOCK PREVENTING ANY NOTABLE PROGRESSION OF THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN. PLENTY OF MID-LEVEL ENERGY OVERHEAD TODAY WITH THE LOW MAKING VERY SLOW PROGRESS.
122 PM EDT SUN MAY 8 2016 A FRONT STALLED NEAR THE NORTH CAROLINA BORDER THROUGH TONIGHT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE BACK NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT MONDAY.
251 PM CDT SUN MAY 8 2016 LOW PRESSURE WILL TAKE HOLD THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND DOWNWARD IN THE UPPER TROUGH.
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY CENTERED ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE HIGH WILL STRENGTHEN EARLY MONDAY.
THE UPPER LOW THAT IMPACTED THE REGION THE PAST FEW DAYS CONTINUES TO SHIFT NORTHEAST.
THE LAPSE RATES ARE PROGGED TO BE FAIRLY STEEP WITH THE UPPER LOW AROUND. NOT TOO CONCERNED ABOUT SEVERE WEATHER ALTHOUGH THE FREEZING LEVEL IS PRETTY LOW. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE CENTERED OVER WYOMING TODAY. THE LOW IS BRINGING RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS TO JACKSON AND NORTHERN LARIMER COUNTIES THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS AND DENVER METRO AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER UNDER THE CLOUDS NORTH TOWARDS WYOMING. A WEAK WAVE EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS PROGGED TO DROP SOUTHEAST AND INCREASE THE SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OVERNIGHT. LOOK FOR CLEARING SKIES AT NIGHT AND WARMER MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TO BE RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL READINGS.
1258 PM CDT SUN MAY 8 2016 WATER VAPOR EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWING A MID-LEVEL LONG WAVE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL ONTARIO THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THAT TROUGH EXITS EAST THIS MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FOR DRY/PLEASANT CONDITIONS THIS MOTHERS DAY. PLAN ON TEMPERATURES TOPPING OFF IN THE UPPER 60S TO THE LOWER 70S. MOISTURE FEED/LIFT AHEAD OF THE LOW LOOKS TO PUSH SCATTERED SHOWERS INTO AREAS MAINLY SOUTH OF I-90 LATE TONIGHT AND A BIT FURTHER NORTHEAST MAINLY SOUTH OF I-94 ON MONDAY. THE CLOSED OPENS INTO A TROUGH.