Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
821 PM EST TUE FEB 17 2015 A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY OVERNIGHT. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY.
901 PM EST TUE FEB 17 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST THIS EVENING.
THE EXTENSIVE AREA OF 9-12KFT CIGS EXTENDING ALONG/S OF A SEP TO JWY/TRL/SLR LINE ALONG THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY SHIFT ESE. BEHIND THE TROUGH. /ISSUED ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA/ UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS REMAINS OVHD THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL PUSH EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT. SHORT TERM PROGS SHOWING THAT THERE IS SOME MID LEVEL ASCENT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS TROUGH AXIS AND THIS LIFT/PRECIP COULD HOLD TOGETHER THIS EVENING ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES BEFORE DISSIPATING AND/OR QUICKLY EXITING TO OUR NORTH AND EAST LATE TONIGHT. LARGE UPPER RIDGING WILL DOMINATE THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY RESULTING IN STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK.
637 PM EST TUE FEB 17 2015 WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA THOUGH WEDNESDAY. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
SKC OVERNIGHT AS A RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK.
929 PM EST TUE FEB 17 2015 HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE MIDWEST WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT WHILE A FIRST LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
COOLER DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AND SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR FROM THE NORTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOW TEMPS WILL NEAR THE FREEZING MARK ACROSS INTERIOR SE GA WITH LOWS ACROSS NE FL RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER 30S ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR TO THE LOW TO MID 50S SOUTH OF A LINE FROM GAINESVILLE TO ST AUGUSTINE. TOMORROW WILL BE A MOSTLY SUNNY BUT COOL AND WINDY DAY WITH WIND GUSTS EXCEEDING 30 MPH AT TIMES DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS ALONG AND BEHIND A SECONDARY COLD FRONT. CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW LONG THE LOWER CIGS WILL LAST OVER THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES TO APPROACH FREEZING ACROSS THE OPEN RANCHLANDS JUST PRIOR TO SUNRISE WITH A MINOR SHORT DURATION FREEZE. VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL WEDNESDAY AS DRY AIR UNDER STRONG HIGH PRESSURE PASSES TO THE EAST LATE IN THE DAY. THE LOW LEVEL CLD DECKS WILL STEADILY CLR LATER TONIGHT WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR SOME RADIATIONAL EFFECTS TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE FLOW WEAKENS. HOWEVER AT THIS TIME EXPECT OVER LOWS TONIGHT TO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING ALTHOUGH SOME MID TO UPPER 30S WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA. THE SHORT TERM GUIDANCE SHOWS REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE MET NUMBERS BEING ON THE COOL SIDE WITH THE MAV AND ECS COMING IN A LITTLE WARMER.
613 PM EST TUE FEB 17 2015 LOW PRESSURE WELL OFF THE DELMARVA COAST THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST-NORTHEAST OUT TO SEA. SKIES STILL REMAINING CLOUDY ACROSS THE AREA AS LOW CLOUDS STILL REMAIN AND HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING NORTHEAST ABOVE THE LOWER CLOUDS. WV LOOP SHOWS DEEP TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY THAT WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. EASTERN CONUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AMPLIFIES WEDNESDAY WITH RESULTING STRENGTHENING COLD ADVECTION.
/ISSUED 157 PM CST TUE FEB 17 2015/ SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH ACROSS TX/LA AND NW GULF THIS AFTERNOON.
509 PM EST TUE FEB 17 2015 A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WITH EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER INTO SOUTH CENTRAL FLORIDA AND ADJACENT GULF AND ATLANTIC WATERS ALTHOUGH LIGHTNING ACTIVITY HAS BEEN ONLY ISOLATED AND THUS FAR MAINLY LIMITED TO THE EASTERN GULF. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND ADJACENT WATERS WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS INCREASING LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO INDICATE WINDS INCREASING TO THE LOWER LEVELS OVER NIGHT. GUIDANCE CONSISTENTLY INDICATES THE FRONT CLEARING THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE.
SKIES STILL REMAINING CLOUDY ACROSS THE AREA AS LOW CLOUDS STILL REMAIN AND HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING NORTHEAST ABOVE THE LOWER CLOUDS. WV LOOP SHOWS DEEP TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY THAT WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. EASTERN CONUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AMPLIFIES WEDNESDAY WITH RESULTING STRENGTHENING COLD ADVECTION.
533 PM CST TUE FEB 17 2015 THE 21Z SURFACE ANALYSIS AND IR/VISIBLE IMAGES INDICATED THAT THERE WERE FINALLY BREAKS IN THE LOW CLOUDS WITH TEMPS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 20S IN SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE. A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT WAS PROGRESSIVELY MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES AND EXTENDED SOUTHWEST FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. THE MODELS ARE INDICATIVE OF DEVELOPING A SURGE OF SNOW SHOWERS ALONG AND SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. AND EXPECT THAT THERE WILL ALSO BE SCATTERED FLURRIES IN THE COLD ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT.
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL WEDNESDAY AS DRY AIR UNDER STRONG HIGH PRESSURE PASSES TO THE EAST LATE IN THE DAY. THE LOW LEVEL CLD DECKS WILL STEADILY CLR LATER TONIGHT WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR SOME RADIATIONAL EFFECTS TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE FLOW WEAKENS. HOWEVER AT THIS TIME EXPECT OVER LOWS TONIGHT TO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING ALTHOUGH SOME MID TO UPPER 30S WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA. THE SHORT TERM GUIDANCE SHOWS REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE MET NUMBERS BEING ON THE COOL SIDE WITH THE MAV AND ECS COMING IN A LITTLE WARMER.
EXPECT DRYING TO COMMENCE ONCE THE SURFACE AND MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SWING THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER CALIFORNIA WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEK.
Another reinforcing push of cold air will move into central Illinois behind another pressure trough early Wednesday.
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SLIDES THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY.
UPPER RIDGE TO DOMINATE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER ON WEDNESDAY.
628 PM EST TUE FEB 17 2015 A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY OVERNIGHT. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY.
330 PM MST TUE FEB 17 2015 COOLER AND DRY AIR HAS MOVED OVER THE REGION AND WILL ALLOW FOR RAPID RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT.
WITH THE RIDGE IN PLACE EXPECT MORE ABOVE NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AND BRISK MORNING TEMPERATURES.
A RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST WILL BRING NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE AREA.
RAIN OVERNIGHT THEN VERY COLD FLORIDA TEMPS THE REST OF THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES OVER THE U. SERIES OF VORT MAXES TO SWING THROUGH THE REGION TO KEEP OVERCAST SKIES AND LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A SURFACE COLD FRONT SLOWLY SAGS SOUTHWARD. COLD HIGH PRESSURE ALREADY BUILDING INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF AND DEEP SOUTH WITH TIGHTENING 4-6 MB GRADIENT TO PRODUCE COLD AND BREEZY CONDITIONS BEHIND THE FRONT FOR WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY WORKING ITS WAY PAST THE WATERS INTO SOUTH FLORIDA.
THE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WERE NOT SEEN AS STRONGLY SUPPORTIVE FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE AS WELL, IN LACKING A SHEAR LAYER ABOVE OR NEAR THE TOP OF THE SATURATED LAYER. AS A RESULT, THE REST OF THE MORNING WILL LIKELY BE COLD AND CLOUDY WITH STRATUS REMAINING OVER MUCH OF THE AREA, WITH POSSIBLY SOME AREAS OF FREEZING FOG DEVELOPING MAINLY FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE STATE LINE WHERE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS HAVE BEEN THE SMALLEST. WITH NO SIGNIFICANT AIRMASS CHANGE, THE LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE SIMILAR, IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S. THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO SHOW A TRANSITION FROM THE QUASI-STATIONARY UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN NORTH AMERICA TO A SOMEWHAT MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN AS THIS WEEK UNFOLDS.
405 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015 HIGH PRESSURE IS NOW CENTERED WELL TO THE EAST ALONG THE EAST COAST THOUGH SOME RIDGING DOES EXTEND WEST THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND TOWARD FAR NORTHEAST IOWA. NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIPITATION WITH THE SECOND SYSTEM WITH LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AND MUCH DRIER AIR RACING IN FROM THE WEST IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE SYSTEM AS ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM ARRIVES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT WARMER TODAY HOWEVER THE CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.
THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE IS 10-15 F WARMER THAN YESTERDAY AS WELL. /ISSUED 453 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015/ THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL BE BRINGING SOME INTERESTING WEATHER WITH IT. THIS WILL HELP CAUSE LAYER LIFTING OVER THE BACK SIDE OF THE COLD FRONT BRINGING A GOOD BIT OF MOISTURE OVER THE SHALLOW COLD DOME OF AIR.
IFR TO OCCASIONAL LIFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL TAF SITES EARLY THIS MORNING AS AREAS OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE PERSISTS. /ISSUED 345 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015/ AREAS OF FREEZING RAIN HAVE BEEN ONGOING THIS MORNING. AREAL COVERAGE OF FREEZING RAIN WILL DIMINISH. WITH PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE BECOMING THE MAIN PRECIP TYPE FOR THOSE AREAS THAT WILL BE BELOW FREEZING FOR MOST OF THE MORNING HOURS. BUT WILL NOT INCLUDE CHOCTAW COUNTY AS OBSERVED TEMPERATURES ARE ABOVE FREEZING. WITH ALL AREAS EXPECTED TO SEE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING. PUSH OF COOLER AIR TO MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT. THE WARMER TEMPERATURES IN THOSE LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT WILL LIKELY LIMIT FREEZING PRECIP CHANCES.
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE MID STATE TODAY BRINGING PATCHY LIGHT RAIN AHEAD OF IT, AND FOG, LIGHT RAIN AND LOW CLOUDS BEHIND IT.
FREEZING RAIN WILL CONTINUE IN THE NORTH FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS BUT WILL CHANGE TO RAIN AS TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE FREEZING.
927 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2015 CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEDGE INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WHICH WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY.
629 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
THIS PRECIP IS FALLING IN THE FORM OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN WHERE TEMPS ARE SUB FREEZING. HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD IN WITH PRECIP TAPERING OFF ACROSS THE NORTH. ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER COULD SEE SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY AS TEMPS DROP TO AROUND FREEZING. LOOKING RELATIVELY QUIET WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MID MS VALLEY AND A STATIONARY FRONT SOUTH OF THE REGION. LINGERING RAIN POSSIBLE OVER NORTH MISSISSIPPI BUT THIS SHOULD BE TAPERING OFF AS SOME RIDGING ALOFT MOVES IN.
INVERTED TROUGH AND HIGH TO THE NORTH ARE GRADUALLY WEAKENING ALONG WITH WINDS AND RAIN. BREAKS IN CLOUDS EXPECTED OVER INTERIOR NE FL THIS AFTERNOON WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES AND AFTERNOON SHOWERS POSSIBLE SOUTH OF I-10. INVERTED TROUGH OFFSHORE AND PRESSURE GRADIENT GRADUALLY WEAKENING ALONG WITH WINDS.
THIS TO THE EAST OF A COASTAL TEXAS TROF. WARM FRONT IS NOTED FROM NEAR TOLEDO BEND TO SOUTH OF MONROE. TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S TO THE UPPER 50S. COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL FILTER IN ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES MONDAY AS WELL WITH WARM TEMPERATURES REMAINING SOUTH OF THE FRONT.
350 AM PST SUN MAR 1 2015 A COLD UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BRINGING PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. THIS LOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE AREA THROUGH EARLY MONDAY BEFORE EXITING.
1007 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
WHICH WILL INCREASE WINDS AND USHER IN SOME COOLER AIR.
633 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2015 A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING. OPEN WV WITH A NARROW SFC TROF PUSHING THRU THE REGION TODAY. AHD OF THE NARROW SFC TROF LATE THIS AFTN AND EVE. DRIER AIR FILTERS IN BHD THE SFC TROF LTR THIS EVENING AND OVERNGT BRINGING A GRADUAL TAPERING OFF OF THE PCPN. IT/S DOUBTFUL THAT TEMPS AT THE SFC WILL RISE ABV FREEZING.
COASTAL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE SOURCE OF DREARY CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS TODAY. MODELS INDICATE COASTAL TROUGH WILL REMAIN JUST OFFSHORE TODAY KEEPING NORTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE ALONG WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY/OVERCAST CONDITIONS. LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT AS MOISTURE OVERRUNS THE COOLER AIR.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN AT OR BELOW FREEZING MOST OF THE DAY ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S CENTRAL TO MID 30S ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS. WITH FREEZING TEMPS HANGING ON A BIT LONGER. KEPT MENTION OF DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL BE INTERMITTENT IN THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF OKLAHOMA UNTIL MID-DAY TODAY. WARM AND MOIST AIR ALOFT WILL AGAIN BRING A CHANCE FOR FREEZING RAIN EARLY MONDAY IN SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS. LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE CONTINUES IN MOST OF THESE AREAS AND THE ADVECTION PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH IT IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN UNTIL A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE.
AREAS OF FREEZING FOG EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH AROUND 10 AM. WITH THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE EXPECTED TO RISE ABOVE FREEZING THIS AFTERNOON. AND HAVE CALLED FOR AREAS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE. WARM AIR ADVECTION AND THE PASSAGE OF A QUICK-MOVING VORTICITY MAXIMUM MAY BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IN THE MORNING AND LIGHT RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH DURING THE PERIOD.
THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THROUGH THE MISSOURI RIVER CORRIDOR WHERE INCREASING CLOUDS LATER IN THE NIGHT AND AN EVOLVING SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH WILL KEEP READINGS IN THE LOWER TEENS.
WARMER AND DRIER IS EXPECTED BY MIDWEEK. EXPECT THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE MORNING AS THE PARENT UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH AND THEN EAST INTO ARIZONA. ANOTHER UPPER LOW CENTER IS PROGGED TO MOVE SOUTH ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST ON MONDAY.
529 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015 HIGH PRESSURE IS NOW CENTERED WELL TO THE EAST ALONG THE EAST COAST THOUGH SOME RIDGING DOES EXTEND WEST THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND TOWARD FAR NORTHEAST IOWA. NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIPITATION WITH THE SECOND SYSTEM WITH LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AND MUCH DRIER AIR RACING IN FROM THE WEST IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE SYSTEM AS ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM ARRIVES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT WARMER TODAY HOWEVER THE CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.
1059 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2015 CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEDGE INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WHICH WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY.
308 AM PST SUN MAR 1 2015 SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TODAY MAINLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS SOUTH THROUGH CALIFORNIA. LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY CONTINUES FOR PORTIONS OF THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA AS AN UPPER LOW PUSHES SOUTH OF THE REGION.
The 7 am EST regional surface analysis showed a strong ridge along the Piedmont, a decaying, quasi-stationary front from just off the SC coast through north FL, and a developing frontal system across MS. ) forecast the low clouds to remain over our region all day, which will of course affect our high temperature forecast. [Through 12Z Monday] Judging from the deep moist layer below 10k ft in the 12 UTC KTAE sounding, as well as the latest NWP guidance, the low ceilings this morning are likely to remain throughout today and tonight.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN MONDAY AND QUICKLY MOVE OFF MONDAY NIGHT.
WARM FRONT IS NOTED FROM NEAR TOLEDO BEND TO SOUTH OF MONROE. TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S TO THE UPPER 50S. COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL FILTER IN ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES MONDAY AS WELL WITH WARM TEMPERATURES REMAINING SOUTH OF THE FRONT.
/ISSUED 514 AM CST Sun Mar 1 2015/ Temperatures this morning are at or below freezing for most locations across the Permian Basin and southeast New Mexico. Skies remain cloudy with light freezing drizzle and patchy freezing fog across the area. An upper trough is just off the coast of California with the upper flow being westerly to southwesterly. The upper trough will get closer to the region allowing upper lift to increase. There is a slight chance of freezing rain and sleet across the northern Permian Basin and portions of southeast New Mexico tonight into Monday morning as temperatures across this area drop to near or below freezing.
519 AM MST SUN MAR 1 2015 SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS STILL LINGERING EARLY THIS MORNING OVER THE TAVAPUTS AND UNCOMPAHGRE PLATEAUS AND ADJACENT VALLEYS ALONG THE JET STREAK AXIS WITH A WEAK TROUGHY FEATURE AT 700MB. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PULLING IN PACIFIC MOISTURE AND ENERGY FOR THIS SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST ON MONDAY. THE TROUGH ACTUALLY WEAKENS SLIGHTLY. COOLER AIR BEGINS TO FILTER INTO THE REGION LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE MAIN TROUGH SHOULD CONTINUE LIFTING OUT OF THE GREAT BASIN AND INTO EASTERN UT AND WESTERN CO MONDAY EVENING. THE GFS PLACES THE SURFACE COLD FRONT JUST EAST OF THE CO AND UT STATE LINE WITH THE MAIN PRECIPITATION BAND 50 MILES EITHER SIDE OF A LINE STRETCHING FROM THE FOUR CORNERS NORTH THROUGH GRAND JUNCTION AND THEN NORTHEAST TO ABOUT CRAIG.
ALSO TOOK OUT MENTION OF FREEZING DRIZZLE AND ADDED SLEET BASED ON REPORTS AND CURRENT OBS. MAINLY NEAR THE HIGHWAY 50 CORRIDOR. THE MAIN HAZARD FOR THIS MORNING WILL BE AREAS OF DENSE FREEZING FOG AND PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.
AN UPPER RIDGE WITH ITS AXIS OUT NEAR 140W WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE THIS WEEK.
A NEAR COASTAL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AND INLAND ADVANCING WARM FRONT WILL PROVIDE THE LOWER LEVEL CONVERGENCE NEEDED TO KEEP DECKS AND VISIBILITIES LOW.
THOUGH THE 12Z SOUNDING SHOWS THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ARE WELL SATURATED BELOW 650MB. SOLAR HEATING WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO BRING HIGH TEMPERATURES UP INTO THE LOW 80S FOR A MOSTLY PLEASANT DAY. HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH WILL WEAKEN TODAY ALLOWING THE GRADIENT TO RELAX AND WIND FIELDS TO WEAKEN.
454 AM PST SUN MAR 1 2015 A COLD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED JUST NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY SOUTHWARD TODAY.
WE WILL SEE THE VERY WEAK COLD FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL MISS RIVER VALLEY MOVE TO EXTREME SW MISSISSIPPI BEFORE QUICKLY RETURNING NORTHWEST TO BECOME ENVELOPED WITH THE NEXT STRONG CANADIAN COLD FRONT. BUT A FEW LOCATIONS ESPECIALLY NEAR SOME COOLER WATER BODIES COULD SEE VIS RESTRICTIONS OF 1/2 MILE OR LESS. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL BE BRINGING SOME INTERESTING WEATHER WITH IT. THIS WILL HELP CAUSE LAYER LIFTING OVER THE BACK SIDE OF THE COLD FRONT BRINGING A GOOD BIT OF MOISTURE OVER THE SHALLOW COLD DOME OF AIR.
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS STILL LINGERING EARLY THIS MORNING OVER THE TAVAPUTS AND UNCOMPAHGRE PLATEAUS AND ADJACENT VALLEYS ALONG THE JET STREAK AXIS WITH A WEAK TROUGHY FEATURE AT 700MB. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PULLING IN PACIFIC MOISTURE AND ENERGY FOR THIS SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST ON MONDAY. THE TROUGH ACTUALLY WEAKENS SLIGHTLY. COOLER AIR BEGINS TO FILTER INTO THE REGION LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE MAIN TROUGH SHOULD CONTINUE LIFTING OUT OF THE GREAT BASIN AND INTO EASTERN UT AND WESTERN CO MONDAY EVENING. THE GFS PLACES THE SURFACE COLD FRONT JUST EAST OF THE CO AND UT STATE LINE WITH THE MAIN PRECIPITATION BAND 50 MILES EITHER SIDE OF A LINE STRETCHING FROM THE FOUR CORNERS NORTH THROUGH GRAND JUNCTION AND THEN NORTHEAST TO ABOUT CRAIG.
AS THE HIGH RES GUIDANCE DOES NOT SO MUCH OUTSIDE OF FALLON COUNTY. THIS WILL QUICKLY GIVE WAY A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT.
533 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015 THE MAIN FOCUS THROUGH TONIGHT IS ON A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SOME FLURRIES ALONG WITH IT. ZONAL TO SOUTHWEST FLOW HAS SET UP ALOFT WITH A CUTOFF LOW OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA AND A POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH DIVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA. A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDS SOUTH FROM WESTERN ONTARIO DOWN THROUGH WESTERN MINNESOTA. EXPECT THAT THESE FLURRIES WILL DIMINISH AS THE DAY PROCEEDS AND DRIER AIR MOVES IN WITH THE WEAK COLD FRONT. AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. SOME WARMER AIR WILL BE ADVECTED UP INTO THE REGION WITH SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE/LOW LEVEL WINDS WHICH WILL HELP HIGHS TO GET INTO THE 20S BY THIS AFTERNOON.
1029 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2015 AN UPPER-LEVEL COMPOSITE ANALYSIS THIS MORNING ACROSS THE REGION REVEALS A DEEP-LAYER MEAN ANTICYCLONE COVERING MUCH OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN BASINS. THE ANTICYCLONE WAS CENTERED NORTH OF THE FLORIDA KEYS. WITH A SHARP RIDGE/WEDGE EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. EASTERLIES PREVAIL ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS IN THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE. A BORDERLINE TROPICAL MARITIME AIR MASS RESIDES WITH CURRENT AIR TEMPERATURES NEAR 80F WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. WE EXPECT A MILD AND OCCASIONALLY BREEZY FIRST MARCH AFTERNOON WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES PEAKING IN THE LOWER 80S IN KEYS ISLAND COMMUNITIES. A LARGE REGION OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SWIFTLY OVER THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC THIS AFTERNOON.
514 AM CST Sun Mar 1 2015 Temperatures this morning are at or below freezing for most locations across the Permian Basin and southeast New Mexico. Skies remain cloudy with light freezing drizzle and patchy freezing fog across the area. An upper trough is just off the coast of California with the upper flow being westerly to southwesterly. The upper trough will get closer to the region allowing upper lift to increase. There is a slight chance of freezing rain and sleet across the northern Permian Basin and portions of southeast New Mexico tonight into Monday morning as temperatures across this area drop to near or below freezing.
LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL BE INTERMITTENT IN THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF OKLAHOMA UNTIL MID-DAY TODAY. WARM AND MOIST AIR ALOFT WILL AGAIN BRING A CHANCE FOR FREEZING RAIN EARLY MONDAY IN SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS. LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE CONTINUES IN MOST OF THESE AREAS AND THE ADVECTION PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH IT IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN UNTIL A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE.
The rest of western Montana and north central Idaho will be more influenced by the ridge of high pressure to the west. Other than cooler temperatures and some increased cloud cover, impacts from this system will be fairly minimal. Tuesday morning will start off cooler than what we have seen recently, with low temperatures mostly in the 20s and teens. By mid-week, the ridge to the west slowly slides east, bringing another couple days of above-average warmth and benign weather.
401 AM CST MON FEB 16 2015 UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FORECAST TO BUILD OVER THE WEST COAST TODAY AND TONIGHT. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PACIFIC WILL PLOW THROUGH THE UPPER RIDGE AND INTO THE THE WESTERN DAKOTAS BY 84 HOURS. LOWERED TEMPS THU MORNING WITH LIGHT WINDS AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY.
214 AM PST MON FEB 16 2015 High pressure will dominate the weather through much of the week.
The only significant returns are over Crockett County, however this area is still in the warm sector just ahead of the strong cold front and is all liquid. However, there is still a mixture of light sleet and freezing rain across the Big Country, but no significant road problems at this time. For today, much colder temperatures are expected behind the cold front, along with a little light wintry precipitation this morning across the Big Country and northern Heartland. Highs will only be in the lower to mid 40s by late this afternoon. Temperatures may even be a few degrees cooler due to stratus not breaking up and low level cold air advection. West Central Texas will be on the tail end of an upper level short wave trough moving by.
350 AM MST MON FEB 16 2015 UPPER AIR ANALYSIS AT H5 SHOWS THE WESTERN RIDGE AXIS HAS RETROGRESSED BACK OFF THE LEFT COAST AND HAS AMPLIFIED INTO THE ALASKAN INTERIOR. MERIDIONAL FLOW HAS SET UP ACROSS WESTERN NOAM WITH LOW PRESSURE STILL DOMINATING EASTERN CANADIAN PROVINCES AND NEW ENGLAND. IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING TO HEAR OF GRAUPLE/SLEET OR SNOW PELLETS BY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE WARMS SOME.
THE LOW CIGS AND FOG SHOULD LIFT BY 14Z. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS TEXAS WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. /ISSUED 344 AM EST MON FEB 16 2015/ WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY.