Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
605 AM CST Sun Jan 7 2018 Have made some adjustments to the forecast due to much warmer than expected temperatures. Road surface temperatures have also warmed into the lower 30s as well. These warmer temperatures will lead to just rain once it starts precipitation over eastern KS and western MO. Have also updated the weather grids, removing freezing rain mention and reducing ice amounts in the remaining portion of western segment of the winter weather advisory. First, air temperatures are warmer than previously thought, especially in our southern and western zones, with several sites already at or above freezing and unlikely to cool down given the warm advection regime we're in.
622 AM CST Sun Jan 7 2018 Focused on trending the POPs with the radars as the returns look a little better as the pre-frontal trough moves through. A prefrontal trough moving through northwest North Dakota this morning has kicked up some snow showers and associated gusty northwest winds through the north central and northwest this morning. Broad westerly downsloping wind will push the remnants of the arctic air out this morning and weak cold advection behind the prefrontal trough will aid in mixing and keep temperatures mild. Highs should warm well into the 30s to around 40 southwest to the low to mid 30s elsewhere.
Looks like the low level jet is a bit too strong for areas of fog. Cooler and lots more sunshine on Monday. However, forecast dew points are expected to be in the lower 60s later today, and even if that is too high even a few degrees lower should generate some fog later today and tonight.
628 AM EST Sun Jan 7 2018 Brutal cold continues into this morning as Arctic high pressure builds into the area from the west. As the high moves east today and Monday, expect warming temperatures. A trough moving by on Monday will produce some light snow, mainly for northern areas.
402 AM CST Sun Jan 7 2018 Latest satellite loops show an upper trough diving southeast across the Central U. Mid and high level moisture continues to increase ahead of this trough. At the surface, a warm front was located from north to south just west of the CWA border. Very little change in temperatures is expected following this cold front.
Freezing fog in valleys across northern Nevada will diminish later this morning as high pressure builds over the region.
Will continue the fog advisory at least a little while longer and see what could materialize, most temperatures are below freezing, and we have had reports of slick roads from Idaho Falls northward. High pressure moves in and stratus and fog will be the main problems until Mon night.
506 AM EST Sun Jan 7 2018 Warmer air will begin to arrive today with snow arriving this evening, mixing with freezing rain at times in some areas into Monday morning.
355 AM MST Sun Jan 7 2018 Water vapor shows short wave moving through western SD early this morning, with large upstream ridge over the Pac NW and Northern Rockies. At the surface, associated trof is pushing east thorugh the central Dakotas. Upper ridge will then dominate early this week with mild and dry conditions expected.
858 AM CST Sun Jan 7 2018 Warmer air continues to progress across the area. Focused on trending the POPs with the radars as the returns look a little better as the pre-frontal trough moves through. A prefrontal trough moving through northwest North Dakota this morning has kicked up some snow showers and associated gusty northwest winds through the north central and northwest this morning. Broad westerly downsloping wind will push the remnants of the arctic air out this morning and weak cold advection behind the prefrontal trough will aid in mixing and keep temperatures mild. Highs should warm well into the 30s to around 40 southwest to the low to mid 30s elsewhere.
Dry upper ridge will persist over the area into Monday, before giving way to an approaching upper trough. For today, moisture moving over the ridge will bring increased mid-high clouds across the area. A possible exception to this would be the lower Treasure Valley (west of Caldwell) and the Weiser basin, where areas of dense fog have formed and the mid-high cloud cover this afternoon could inhibit mixing. An approaching trough will increase the chance for showers across far southeastern Oregon Monday afternoon as flow aloft shifts to the southwest.
Approaching low pressure brings potential of freezing rain to KCHA by end of the TAF period and KTYS/TRI just beyond the TAF period.
649 AM EST Sun Jan 7 2018 High pressure will build over the region marking the beginning of a moderating trend in temperatures. A weak frontal system will approach for Monday followed by high pressure for midweek. Nighttime blended satellite imagery shows the last of the low clouds over northern Potter County retreating north into NY. High pressure crossing the region today will mark the beginning of a moderating trend in temperatures.
However, some shower development has been noted in latest hi-res models near KAUS in the late afternoon ahead of the advancing cold front, so have included VCSH mention for KAUS. The above mentioned mid-level trough along with a cold front will likely produce a round of showers and storms this evening, especially along and east of the I-35 corridor north of San Antonio.
Main forecast issue in short term lies with the possibility of a light wintry mix of rain/freezing rain later today into tonight, mainly over portions of southeast MO/srn IL/sw IN and the northern Pennyrile of western KY. Brisk southerly flow today should help temps rise above freezing most locations, esp across our southern counties. Even if readings remain slightly above freezing, ground temps may lag warming due to the extended deep freeze we have experienced. The rain should end from northwest to southeast as the day progresses and the trof moves off to the east.
/issued 351 AM CST Sun Jan 7 2018/ The pesky east CONUS trough that provided the below normal temperatures to begin the New Year has moved off the coast. As of 3 AM, temperatures are generally in the low/mid 20s north of I-40 with readings closer to 30 degrees farther south. With precipitation not expected until after 18z, surface temperatures are expected to be above freezing area wide. However, there may be a few pockets where temperatures remain near the freezing mark for the onset of precipitation.
124 AM EDT Tue Sep 5 2017 The risk for showers and thunderstorms will be on the increase, especially Wednesday and Wednesday night ahead of a cold front.
352 AM CDT Tue Sep 5 2017 An unusually strong upper level trough was digging across the central U. this morning and will help to advance a cold front across the Mid South today. Canadian high pressure will build across the Mid South from mid week through the weekend. Temporary MVFR conditions may develop Tuesday morning as a cold front moves through portions of the Mississippi Valley.
Early morning surface observations show a cold front oriented from southwest to northeast across Oklahoma. This cold front will make steady southward progress today, and should move into central Texas late this afternoon. For tonight, the cold front will continue to move southward and we should see at least isolated showers and storms develop along the boundary. The cold front should manage to clear the region Wednesday morning. Otherwise, Wednesday's high temperatures behind the front will range from the mid-80s in the Hill Country to the lower and mid 90s along the Rio Grande.
At the time of this writing, a cold front was making its way through the state. High temperatures today behind the front will be up to 20 degrees cooler than yesterdays highs. As the current trough moves out, a bit of weak ridging will build back in keeping us dry.
411 AM EDT Tue Sep 5 2017 Strong cold front Today into Wednesday. High pressure with drier and cooler weather behind front for the remainder of the week. The Ohio Valley should see some clearing tonight and much cooler air behind the front. A sharp upper level trough will have a sfc reflection crossing the area Wednesday.
SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday): Attention continues to focus on a trough of low pressure located over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico, east of Tampico, for signs of further development. The National Hurricane center is giving a 50- 60 percent chance of a possible tropical cyclone developing in this vicinity in the next 2-5 days.
611 AM EDT Tue Sep 5 2017 Much cooler conditions are expected today with highs generally in the upper 60s to near 70. A few light rain showers are possible during the day but much better chances for rain are expected overnight into Wednesday with the highest chances near Lake Michigan.
A cold front will move through the area during the late morning/early afternoon, expected to reach HOB around 16Z and FST around 18-19Z. /issued 300 PM CDT Mon Sep 4 2017/ WV imagery shows the upper ridge anchored over NV, covering most of the wrn CONUS, and nosing down into Texas. To the north, a cold front is moving thru the Central Plains, and set to arrive in West Texas and Southeast New Mexico Tuesday. Models are in pretty good agreement in bringing the aforementioned cold front into the Wrn Low Rolling Plains after 18Z Tue. Models are stingy on developing QPF along the pre-frontal trough during the afternoon, yielding isolated chances at best. The upper ridge slowly migrates southeast into West Texas and Southeast New Mexico, but also weakens, and thicknesses don't vary much.
327 AM PDT Tue Sep 5 2017 A trough of low pressure will remain along the California Coast through much of the week. Cooler conditions will prevail, but temperatures will still a bit above seasonal normals through the week. On Wednesday the area will be sandwiched between an east pac upper low and large upper high over NV.
346 AM CDT Tue Sep 5 2017 A cold front pushed south across the Panhandles late last night into the early morning hours.
The cooler northwest mid level flow has arrived and will stick with us through the remainder of the week. Expect cooler 60s for highs today, along with gusty northwest winds.
343 AM EDT Tue Sep 5 2017 The morning surface analysis is showing the area of high pressure is now pushed south and we are seeing a cold front make it into the Ohio Valley region. That said, some of the convection has split off and headed into portions of Middle Tennessee, but another area closer to the cold front resides across northern Kentucky into Southern Ohio. The anomalously deep upper level trough for this time of year will swing toward the region as it becomes neutrally tilted by Wednesday. However, with this deep of a trough cold 850MB temperatures in the single digits are expected to advect southeast. The blended data wanted to add some slight POPs in the Bluegrass, but given the dry air seen in the low levels did decide to keep it dry.
311 AM CDT Tue Sep 5 2017 WV imagery this morning showing a highly anomalous upstream ridge pretty much overing the wrn half of the CONUS with a broad trof covering the ern section of the country. At the sfc, a cold front was situated across cntrl KS into cntrl MO. a large area of high pressure was building southward out of Canada into the northern Plains. Models indicating the highly amplified pattern over the CONUS will hold with dry conditions heading into this weekend. With no significant thermal advection anticipated, max temps will remain slightly below normal today and Wednesday with highs topping out on the low/mid 70s.
A much cooler pattern will commence today as flow becomes northerly behind a cold front.
1024mb high pressure moves overhead tonight with ideal radiational conditions for most of the area, though western Minnesota may maintain enough of a gradient to keep a light breeze going.
319 AM CDT Tue Sep 5 2017 Northwest winds in the wake of the cold front along with dewpoints in the low/mid 40s have prohibited fog formation overnight, despite clear skies and recent rainfall. The deep trough that is over us this morning will continue slowly sliding east this week and will be over the Canadian Maritimes this weekend. In it's wake, ridging moves in from the west, with the upper jet getting forced up to nearly the Canadian Arctic. We still have some pops lingering Wednesday out in Ladysmith and Eau Claire as they will still be under the influence of cyclonic flow with the upper low.
150 AM MDT Tue Sep 5 2017 Imagery shows large, broad amplified ridge centered over the western CONUS (nrn UT) over a minor low off the srn California coast. The SFC has weak low pressure across much of the wrn CONUS with a back door front siding s/sw through WY with strong high pressure building to the north behind the front. Today will be post frontal, cooler, drier, with generally sunny skies over eastern and central WY. RH values look to bottom out across the lower elevations in the mid to upper teens.
345 AM EDT Tue Sep 5 2017 The morning surface analysis is showing the area of high pressure is now pushed south and we are seeing a cold front make it into the Ohio Valley region. That said, some of the convection has split off and headed into portions of Middle Tennessee, but another area closer to the cold front resides across northern Kentucky into Southern Ohio. The anomalously deep upper level trough for this time of year will swing toward the region as it becomes neutrally tilted by Wednesday. However, with this deep of a trough cold 850MB temperatures in the single digits are expected to advect southeast. The blended data wanted to add some slight POPs in the Bluegrass, but given the dry air seen in the low levels did decide to keep it dry.
and Wednesday A mid level trough will slowly work its way through the western Great Lakes region today and Wednesday, bringing several PV anomalies through the region and with it several rounds of showers. Temperatures will be fairly cool during this stretch, with highs today limited to the 50s across the north, with highs in the lower 60s across east-central Wisconsin. Overnight lows tonight will dip into the 40s, with daytime highs on Wednesday fairly close to today ranging from the middle 50s to the lower 60s.
To the north, a cold front extends from the Ohio Valley southwest toward the TX panhandle. Acrs the far southwest Gulf, a cluster of convection is evident in association with an area of low pressure. 24 Few changes to fcst with the main item of concern in the near term being the advancing cold front and fall-like weather in its wake. Showers and tstms will increase this evening, especially acrs the northern zones as the cold front approaches the area.
337 AM MDT Tue Sep 5 2017 130kt upper jet seen clearly on GOES-16 WV imagery this morning over central Canada and the northern Great Plains will continue to dive southward today, digging out a highly amplified trough over the Mississippi Valley. Heights aloft begin to rise on Wednesday as the strong upper ridge over the western CONUS begins to shift east. Continued sunny skies with temperatures around 5 degrees warmer than today. The models are in pretty good agreement in showing the upper level ridge dominating the weather pattern through the weekend.
A ridge of high pressure will continue to strengthen over the next 48 hours and will bring warm and dry weather to the region. An increasing warming trend is expected for the latter half of the week as an amplified ridge shifts overhead.
Unseasonably cool air will work into the region today behind a strong cold front and will remain for the rest of the work week.
An approaching cold front will push through during the period.
1228 AM CDT Tue Sep 5 2017 Cold front currently pushing through central Texas Panhandle. /issued 242 PM CDT Mon Sep 4 2017/ OVERVIEW: Primary change to the inherited forecast was to insert some smoke across our northern zones tomorrow morning following a cold front. Otherwise, the trend towards a highly amplified pattern remains intact with longwave ridging holding to our west and deep troughing over the eastern CONUS. TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: Noon surface analysis captured a cold front roughly along I-70 in CO and KS with a pre-frontal trough aligned from Tucumcari, NM to Great Bend, KS. METARs across the High Plains of western KS and eastern CO have been awash with smoke and reduced visibilities from forest fires in MT, ID and OR.
The morning surface analysis is showing the area of high pressure is now pushed south and we are seeing a cold front make it into the Ohio Valley region. That said, some of the convection has split off and headed into portions of Middle Tennessee, but another area closer to the cold front resides across northern Kentucky into Southern Ohio. The anomalously deep upper level trough for this time of year will swing toward the region as it becomes neutrally tilted by Wednesday. However, with this deep of a trough cold 850MB temperatures in the single digits are expected to advect southeast. The blended data wanted to add some slight POPs in the Bluegrass, but given the dry air seen in the low levels did decide to keep it dry.
311 AM EDT Tue Sep 5 2017 A cold front will approach from the northwest today.
Strong high pressure aloft and the associated warm temperatures will remain locked in over the Intermountain West through midweek.
211 AM PDT Tue Sep 5 2017 Low pressure near the west coast will bring increasing chances for thunderstorms this week with temperatures cooling back closer to seasonal levels.
Winds are right at the low end of the threshold for a LAKE WIND ADVISORY on American Falls Reservoir.
As a result of the strong upper trough with upper jet digging southward through the Plains, the next 24 hours will shape up on the cool side. Temps will be the coldest so far this season tonight, generally in the lower 40s, but some upper 30s possible in lower spots through the James/Big Sioux valleys.
Expecting CU development late this morning with convective temps in the low 60s.
The best dynamics will be right along this cold front itself and only expecting rainfall totals from one quarter to one half inch at this time. A much cooler/drier airmass to settle across SE TX in the wake of this front through the rest of the week. 41 The light onshore winds will continue today before the cold front arrives early Wednesday morning.
Temperatures will remain hot through Wednesday then cool to the lower 80s by the weekend.
639 AM EDT Tue Sep 5 2017 High pressure will remain off the coast today while a cold front approaches from the northwest.
326 AM EDT Tue Sep 5 2017 High pressure will remain off the coast today while a cold front approaches from the northwest.
651 AM EDT Tue Sep 5 2017 Strong cold front Today into Wednesday. High pressure with drier and cooler weather behind front for the remainder of the week. The Ohio Valley should see some clearing tonight and much cooler air behind the front. A sharp upper level trough will have a sfc reflection crossing the area Wednesday.
240 AM EDT Tue Sep 5 2017 Moisture will begin to increase today ahead of an approaching cold front today.
108 AM EDT Tue Sep 5 2017 High pressure will slide out to sea tonight. A strong cold front will approach from the northwest during Tuesday, then slowly crosses the region and pushes offshore Tuesday night through Wednesday night.
307 AM EDT Tue Sep 5 2017 A cold front will slowly push into the state from Quebec later this afternoon.
153 AM EDT Tue Sep 5 2017 A strong cold front will move through the area tonight, bringing showers and thunderstorms. Much cooler temperatures and will return for the second half of the workweek along with some scattered showers. Flow amplifies as mid level trof digs south into the Great Lakes Tuesday/Tuesday night. Cool temperatures will only reach highs from the lower 70s northwest to the mid 70s southeast. The cold front that is forecast to move through the area on Tuesday should be well east of the area by Wednesday, but chances for precipitation will not be over.
104 AM EDT Tue Sep 5 2017 Aviation A strong cold front will bring scattered thunderstorms late this afternoon and lingering showers tonight. A much cooler airmass will move in behind this system through midweek along with scattered lake effect rain showers. At 18Z a strong cold front was moving through our nw fcst area. Nw flow lake effect rain showers will develop Tuesday as h8 temps fall to 4 to 5 C Tuesday afternoon yielding delta t/s in the lower teens.
611 AM EDT Tue Sep 5 2017 A cold front will slowly push into the state from Quebec later this afternoon.
This cluster, while already weaker than it was an hour ago, is expected to weaken further as it gets away from the main synoptic support of a cold front due in here later today.
659 AM EDT Tue Sep 5 2017 A cold front will approach from the northwest today.
The large trough carving through much of the eastern U. continues to move south and east, with ridging still dominating in the west. The high will stick around for a few days keeping conditions dry and ushering in below normal temperatures. This combined with the lower dewpoints does elevate fire weather concerns a tad, so take caution if burning today.
Breezy NE winds of 10-20 mph will continue to filter in cooler and drier air through the day, with comfortable afternoon temperatures in the 70s and dewpoints drying into the 30s.
A large upper trough will dig over the north-central CONUS today and tonight. This will send a strong sfc cold front southward toward the area this afternoon and tonight.
300 AM EDT Tue Sep 5 2017 A cold front will slowly approach from the west today, then slowly cross the region through late in the week. High pressure will then build to the north of the area over the weekend. An upper level trough will descend towards the Mid-Atlantic, buckling as it collides with a building ridge over the northwestern Atlantic. At the surface, a cold front will slowly approach from the west, and increasing low-level convergence will increase by afternoon. Rainfall amounts don't look particularly heavy, but there will be periods of showers for much of the area (especially east of the Blue Ridge) during this time.
Radar and wind sensors show a cold front plowing through south Denver now, headed this way. Activity will range from isolated across the lower elevations up to scattered over the mountains. West of the Sangre De Cristos and up into the higher terrain, above the shallow front, temperatures will be closer to averages.
Strong cold front that swept through Mon afternoon/evening is now situated from northern AR into the TX Panhandle. By 12z Thu, sharp upper trough will extend from the Great Lakes through the Ohio Valley with lee troughing strengthening over the high Plains. At issuance the strong SE-moving cold front that crossed South- Central KS late this afternoon & Southeast KS early this evening had surged into Central & Northeast OK.
A cold front will sink into the TN valley today, remaining north of the CWA today.
257 AM CDT Tue Sep 5 2017 A cold front will continue to progress SE from the Ohio Valley into the Tennessee Valley later today, bringing good chances for showers and thunderstorms to the area, especially from the early/mid afternoon through this evening. Another cluster of storms associated with an earlier pre-frontal trough/outflow boundary is currently dropping south into the Northern Middle Tennessee. By this afternoon, the upper-trough will magnify over the western Great lakes as the cold front pushes southward into the Tennessee Valley. A 30-40 kt LLJ feature will rotate over the region between 21-00z helping to increase the low- level shear. A strong push of cooler, drier air will filter into the area by Wednesday morning, bringing a swift end to precipitation thereafter and help to diminish cloud cover over much of Northern Alabama by 12z Wednesday.
Today Through Wednesday Night A cold front was pushing into Arkansas from the north early this morning. Much cooler air will be noted behind the front.
336 AM CDT Tue Sep 5 2017 Upper ridge remains entrenched over Western US while a trough extends from Canada down across the Eastern US. The trough will swing SE but ridge move little. A weak cold front expected to move through the area today. Should be cooler the next few days with highs mainly in the 80s.