Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Northerly flow has kept temperatures a bit cooler with highs only reaching the low to mid 50s across our east. With the exception of the Twin Cities heat island remaining a couple of degrees warmer, lows will drop into the lower 30s. Wednesday night's lows will be warmer as the southerly flow continues. Temperatures will gradually warm to above normal once again as 850 mb thermal ridging over the High Plains moves into the Northern Plains.
228 PM CDT Tue Sep 27 2022 As of this afternoon, a potent upper trough is located across the Great Lakes region with northwesterly mid-level and upper level flow over the central plains. The region has felt more influence from the upper ridge over the Rockies today leading to temperatures in the mid to upper 80s.
(This evening through Wednesday Night) Pleasant fall weather will continue through the short-term as high pressure at the surface dominates.
1207 PM CDT Tue Sep 27 2022 (The rest of today ) NW flow persists over the Plains on the western side of a deep eastern CONUS trough. At the surface, high pressure was centered over MO/AR.
(The rest of today ) NW flow persists over the Plains on the western side of a deep eastern CONUS trough. At the surface, high pressure was centered over MO/AR.
1233 PM CDT Tue Sep 27 2022 (Today through Wednesday Night) Warm but much drier conditions prevail in the immediate term following the passage of yesterday's surface cold front.
Water vapor imagery this afternoon shows a few notable features including a longwave trough axis over the eastern-third of the US, a broad ridge over the western US, and Hurricane Ian approaching the Florida peninsula. Temperatures this afternoon have climbed into the upper 70s and are expected to top out in the lower 80s. This will in turn lead to low temperatures ranging from the low 40s to low 50s over the next few days.
Modestly strengthening sfc ridging from s cntrl CN swd into the MO Valley coupled with deepening lee trof are combining to support steady east to southeast flow across the area this aftn. Resulting tightening pressure/height gradient should support the development of a southerly LLJ over the High Plains late this evening into tonight.
(This evening through Wednesday) An upper level trough will be moving west to east across the Great Lakes area through the short term, with Hurricane Ian approaching the FL peninsula from the south. advecting cooler and drier air into the area.
1213 PM CDT Tue Sep 27 2022 (Today through Wednesday) The cold front is slowly edging into Deep South Texas, with thunderstorms offshore diving southward this morning. Expect the chance of rain to increase along the frontal boundary as it works south into this afternoon, especially across the lower to mid RGV into early this afternoon.
301 PM EDT Tue Sep 27 2022 Cool high pressure will build in from the northwest through the end of the work week. Water vapor satellite showed a deep upper low over the Great Lakes region, Hurricane Ian just north of western Cuba and zonal flow across central NC. Surface observations showed strong high pressure building south into North Dakota, with northwesterly flow across central NC. The high clouds will help limit low temperatures from dropping too low across the SE. A trough associated with the upper low near the Great Lakes will dig south across the Appalachians late Wednesday, helping to lower heights throughout the day.
/Issued 1148 AM CDT Tue Sep 27 2022/ /Tonight through Wednesday Night/ North Texas will remain on the eastern periphery of mid level ridging through Wednesday with light northerly flow aloft. The low afternoon humidity will support a grass fire threat across much of North and Central Texas through Wednesday, although light winds will limit overall spread.
233 PM MDT Tue Sep 27 2022 There was an increase in moisture today which was led to scattered showers and a few storms, over the higher terrain, especially along and south of I-70. Most of this activity will stay over the higher terrain, mainly along and south of I-70. Models are pretty well in line leading up to the weekend with the placement of the closed upper low. This system is expected to drop south with the low center over Wyoming and a trailing trough into the Great Basin that will bring us increased chances for precipitation into the weekend.
High pressure will continue over the region through Wednesday bringing mostly sunny skies, warm days/cool nights, and dry conditions. Only weather concern during this time frame will be the lower relative humidity values and any gusty winds which will be responsible for increasing the marginal fire weather threat. Remnants of Hurricane Ian will impact the area bringing periods of heavy rain and strong winds especially in the higher elevations/mountains.
A few showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop across southeastern Ohio and northern West Virginia this afternoon and evening as a strong short wave rounds the base of an upper level low spinning just to the north of the area. A persistent weather pattern is expected on Wednesday as the upper low remains just north, with afternoon showers confined along southeastern Ohio and northern West Virginia. Upper level troughing lingers over the region one more day Wednesday with some additional isolated lake enhanced showers across our northern counties and into the northeastern mountains with dry conditions elsewhere. Troughing shifts east out of the area overnight Wednesday with surface flow shifting out of then northeast.
1122 AM CDT Tue Sep 27 2022 (Today through Wednesday afternoon) Upper ridge centered over NM today extends northward along the Rockies to Canada as a broad upper trough spins over the Eastern US. As the trough moves east Wednesday the ridge axis will shift onto the plains. Wednesday similar temps maybe a degree or two warmer.
1228 PM CDT Tue Sep 27 2022 Northwest mid/upper flow today will gradually transition to weak mid/upper flow as we see more influence from the mid/upper ridge across the Rockies. A backdoor front will arrive late in the period today or early in the period tonight ushering in more seasonable air across the area on Wednesday with highs only reaching the 70s for most areas although those near the OK state line may climb into the lower 80s.
Through Wednesday high pressure will keep temperatures well above normal. After midnight however, light to moderate rain showers will overspread our region as a cutoff low pressure system moves into western Montana and central Idaho. The models have been erratic run to run in terms of how quickly the low will move through the region due to the amount of tropical activity.
A ridge of high pressure positioned over the region this afternoon will break down and shift east into Wyoming late tonight opening the door for increasing clouds across the area Wednesday. A low pressure system pushing into WRN Washington and Oregon Wednesday afternoon will advance eastward to Pendleton Wednesday night as associated showers overspread the CNTRL mountains and sub- tropical moisture surges north out of Utah across the Snake River Plain and SE mountains for a quick shot of precipitation.
1033 AM MDT Tue Sep 27 2022 High pressure which settled over the Pan Handle region will continue to bring modest levels of moisture to the southern and central mountains of western Colorado today and Wednesday.
1048 AM MDT Tue Sep 27 2022 Some moisture has moved into the area with radar indicating virga over portions of the higher terrain/Palmer Divide. With MLCAPE of 300 j/kg or less not sure how widespread tstm activity there will be over the higher terrain. There will be a slight movement in the upper ridge position as it shifts just a bit eastward, right over Colorado today. Temperatures will be slightly cooler today with some slight cooling in coming from the east along with a bit more cloudiness this afternoon. On Wednesday, the ridge will be centered over northern New Mexico with the next trough just off the Pacific Northwest Coast.
1254 PM CDT Tue Sep 27 2022 Today and Tonight: Cooler and dry through the period. Otherwise, our normal highs run in the lower 80s. Highs today will range from the upper 70s east to the lower 80s elsewhere. Under mostly clear skies and a near calm wind again tonight, radiational cooling of our dry airmass will lead to cooler than normal temperatures mainly in the lower 50s although a few sites may dip into the upper 40s.
It is the lowest again today. Slightly higher RH values will be found up toward I-64 where cooler temperatures will prevail. High pressure will strengthen across the area tonight through Wednesday as a deep H5 trof persists over the east half of the nation.
High pressure centered over the southern Rocky Mountains will help to deliver moisture to northern Arizona, with thunderstorm chances returning to the forecast. High pressure in the mid levels was centered over northern New Mexico this morning. A generally low grade monsoon pattern will continue through this week as the weather pattern is dominated by high pressure to our east.
1224 PM CDT Tue Sep 27 2022 High pressure will build into the forecast area today with a dry air mass in place. Rua The dominating force over the short term period will be the interaction between developing high pressure over the Midwest and Hurricane Ian over the eastern Gulf. Louisiana, situated between these two features, will experience several days of breezy, beautiful and seasonally cool weather brought on by yesterday's cold frontal passage.
(Tonight through Wednesday night) A cold front is currently pushing south through the Rio Grande Valley with ongoing convection along and immediately behind the front. High pressure builds in tonight leading to much cooler weather tonight with the return of widespread middle to upper 60s! Ample sunshine Wednesday pushes daytime highs into the upper 80s to lower 90s. An even cooler night awaits us Wednesday night with lower to middle 60s expected, perhaps a few pockets of upper 50s in the traditionally cooler spots in the Brooks/Kenedy Ranches.
241 PM CDT Tue Sep 27 2022 18Z surface data has high pressure from the Canadian border to the deep South. Clear and very chilly conditions will be seen tonight as high pressure builds into the Midwest. Frost is expected but areas near large rivers may stay a bit warmer. Sheltered areas tonight may get as cold as freezing given the clear skies and light winds.
253 PM EDT Tue Sep 27 2022 Cool high pressure will build in from the northwest through the end of the work week. Water vapor satellite showed a deep upper low over the Great Lakes region, Hurricane Ian just north of western Cuba and zonal flow across central NC. Surface observations showed strong high pressure building south into North Dakota, with northwesterly flow across central NC. The high clouds will help limit low temperatures from dropping too low across the SE. A trough associated with the upper low near the Great Lakes will dig south across the Appalachians late Wednesday, helping to lower heights throughout the day.
(This afternoon through Wednesday night) Dry low/mid-level air and the persistent presence of high pressure aloft will make for very little sensible change in conditions through Thu AM.
1208 PM CDT Tue Sep 27 2022 (Today and tonight) Temperatures will be several degrees warmer today under breezy downslope southwesterly winds. Winds will turn to the southwest courtesy of a surface lee cyclone developing in southeastern Colorado. An upper level ridge will slowly move overhead allowing for weak flow aloft to take over. At the same time, a weak cold front will slowly sag south through the Texas Panhandle.
226 PM EDT Tue Sep 27 2022 Mainly dry weather is expected through the end of the work week as high pressure to our west builds over the region.
Gusty southwest winds (20-30 mph) are being observed ahead of the front, and compressional warming may allow afternoon HIs to run a few degrees warmer (mid-90s) than away from this feature (upper-80s). Lows are expected to run from the low-50s behind the front across northwest Oklahoma to upper-50s ahead across west north Texas into central Oklahoma. Like Tuesday, gusty southwest winds and locally warmer afternoon HIs (low-90s) are expected along/ahead of the front (across southern Oklahoma).
The upper ridge is slowly working its way back east and will continue to expand its influence over the state of Texas tonight and into tomorrow. There may be enough mid-level moisture to see some more cloud cover in the Big Country so have kept lows in the low 60s up there.
The upper level system to our west that will move in Wed into Wed night is still on track to bring much cooler temps into the region beginning Wed night.
Highs look to reach only the lower to mid 60s Wednesday, followed by a warming trend and temperatures reaching near normal by the weekend. For Wednesday, the cool air mass should keep highs down to the lower and mid 60s with light northeast winds. High pressure should be located to the north/northeast Wednesday night, with upper 30s lows expected at this point.
319 PM CDT Tue Sep 27 2022 Tonight and Tomorrow: Fire weather conditions will be the primary concern for the remainder of the forecast period as daytime heating will cause afternoon highs to range in the lower 80s through this afternoon. Along with the cooler daytime temperatures, the aforementioned daytime heating will mix down dewpoint temperatures into the upper 30s with critically low relative humidity values reaching into the 20-25% (portions of the NW Delta could see RH values into the upper teens). For tonight, radiative cooling will allow for RH values to climb back up into the upper 60s with minimum temperatures dipping into the low 50s. Wednesday, expect similar conditions with morning lows reaching the lower 50s. The previously mentioned wind gusts, combined with the low RH values will create dangerous fire weather conditions.
227 PM EDT Tue Sep 27 2022 Mainly dry weather is expected through the end of the work week as high pressure to our west builds over the region.
158 PM CDT Tue Sep 27 2022 The region remains stuck in northwest flow aloft wedged between a mid-level trough positioned over the Great Lakes/New England and a ridge building into the Four Corners region. A clear sky overnight will allow for effective cooling tonight, with lows falling into the upper 30s across areas north of I-70, while areas to the south of I-70 will fall into the low 40s. Temperatures on Wednesday will struggle to make it out of the 60s owing to the cool start to the morning and another shot of robust cold air advection in the low-levels during the day.
(Tonight) Tranquil weather is expected once again this evening and overnight with high pressure at the surface and a cool, dry air mass in place.
Will see another cool night with forecast lows nudged toward MOS numbers in the normally cooler areas. No significant changes on the horizon as our area remains caught in between a trough in the Pacific NW, and the eventual path of the remnants of "Ian". This will maintain a blocking pattern over the central U.
A strong dome of high pressure gradually building eastward into much of the region will maintain quiet/seasonably cool wx conditions heading into the overnight hrs.
This afternoon through Wednesday night An upper Low is currently pushing towards the Oregon/Washington coast as the amplified upper ridge continues to move eastward into the central US. The approaching trof will tighten gradients, bringing breezy to wind conditions Wednesday afternoon.
623 PM CDT Tue Sep 27 2022 Tonight and Tomorrow: Fire weather conditions will be the primary concern for the remainder of the forecast period as daytime heating will cause afternoon highs to range in the lower 80s through this afternoon. Along with the cooler daytime temperatures, the aforementioned daytime heating will mix down dewpoint temperatures into the upper 30s with critically low relative humidity values reaching into the 20-25% (portions of the NW Delta could see RH values into the upper teens). For tonight, radiative cooling will allow for RH values to climb back up into the upper 60s with minimum temperatures dipping into the low 50s. Wednesday, expect similar conditions with morning lows reaching the lower 50s. The previously mentioned wind gusts, combined with the low RH values will create dangerous fire weather conditions.
Otherwise, clear skies and the cold air advection should allow for morning low temperatures to range in the lower to mid 50s along and north of I-10, upper 50s to near 60 further south.
637 PM CDT Tue Sep 27 2022 (Tonight through Wednesday night) A cold front is currently pushing south through the Rio Grande Valley with ongoing convection along and immediately behind the front. High pressure builds in tonight leading to much cooler weather tonight with the return of widespread middle to upper 60s! Ample sunshine Wednesday pushes daytime highs into the upper 80s to lower 90s. An even cooler night awaits us Wednesday night with lower to middle 60s expected, perhaps a few pockets of upper 50s in the traditionally cooler spots in the Brooks/Kenedy Ranches.
Guidance continues to indicate min temps in the low to mid 40s for the bulk of the area. Model 850mb are similar to today's, so expect another day of highs ranging from the mid 50s over the high terrain of the Alleghenies, to the upper 60s in the Lower Susq Valley.
A small cluster of thunderstorms developed in eastern Harney County this afternoon, and gusty winds were observed at Rome/OR due to downdrafts below virga, with the air mass very dry in the low levels. Wednesday will begin a cool-down in Oregon as a Pacific upper low moves inland. Surface cold front will pass through eastern Oregon late Wednesday and western Idaho Wednesday evening with gusty west/northwest winds and falling temperatures.
However, the cold night should verify nicely tonight, as clear skies, very dry air, and light winds will provide a ideal set up for lows approaching freezing +/- 2 degrees of 33F tonight. Thus far, winds of 5 to 8 mph have slowed the forecast fall of temperatures, but it looks like winds will decrease as the night goes on, resulting in several hours in the lower to mid 30s in most locations. ERVIN 18Z surface data has high pressure from the Canadian border to the deep South. Clear and very chilly conditions will be seen tonight as high pressure builds into the Midwest. Frost is expected but areas near large rivers may stay a bit warmer. Sheltered areas tonight may get as cold as freezing given the clear skies and light winds.
Isolated showers associated with an upper trough will continue overnight along the I-80 corridor with lows 5 to 10 degrees below the averages (47F at DUJ, 51F at PIT, 52F at MGW).
A cold front resides in our Gulf waters with northeast winds north of this feature.
No significant changes on the horizon as our area remains caught in between a trough in the Pacific NW, and the eventual path of the remnants of "Ian". This will maintain a blocking pattern over the central U.
829 PM EDT Tue Sep 27 2022 Winds slacking off tonight as high pressure builds in. A few showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop across southeastern Ohio and northern West Virginia this afternoon and evening as a strong short wave rounds the base of an upper level low spinning just to the north of the area. A persistent weather pattern is expected on Wednesday as the upper low remains just north, with afternoon showers confined along southeastern Ohio and northern West Virginia.
713 PM MDT Tue Sep 27 2022 Upper level ridge over the region produced temps into the 80s most places today. Strong upper level ridge will remain in control of our weather. These clouds and lee side troffing will keep temps relatively mild. Tomorrow will be warmer today w/ 700mb temp plume near +10C. JKL An upper ridge will continue to dominate our weather through Wednesday night with dry and warm conditions. Only a few clouds expected as a weak disturbance moves along the periphery of the ridge. Flow aloft will back to the southwest by Wednesday night due to an approaching trough from the west.
619 PM CDT Tue Sep 27 2022 As of this afternoon, a potent upper trough is located across the Great Lakes region with northwesterly mid-level and upper level flow over the central plains. The region has felt more influence from the upper ridge over the Rockies today leading to temperatures in the mid to upper 80s.
The projected low temperatures in those locations are below freezing supporting the headline issuance. The showers have been decreasing and that trend will continue as the low level convergence weakens and shifts south of the CWA.
619 PM CDT Tue Sep 27 2022 The region remains stuck in northwest flow aloft wedged between a mid-level trough positioned over the Great Lakes/New England and a ridge building into the Four Corners region. A clear sky overnight will allow for effective cooling tonight, with lows falling into the upper 30s across areas north of I-70, while areas to the south of I-70 will fall into the low 40s. Temperatures on Wednesday will struggle to make it out of the 60s owing to the cool start to the morning and another shot of robust cold air advection in the low-levels during the day.
18Z surface data has high pressure from the Canadian border to the deep South. Clear and very chilly conditions will be seen tonight as high pressure builds into the Midwest. Frost is expected but areas near large rivers may stay a bit warmer. Sheltered areas tonight may get as cold as freezing given the clear skies and light winds.
608 PM CDT Tue Sep 27 2022 (Tonight) Tranquil weather is expected once again this evening and overnight with high pressure at the surface and a cool, dry air mass in place.
So after collaborating with other offices, will be going with a freeze warning for much of central and north central WI where just a little clearing will allow temps to fall to near or just below freezing, with a frost advisory buffering it, including Outagamie Co. where the northwest half of the county has the highest frost potential.
650 PM CDT Tue Sep 27 2022 Upper level ridging encompasses much of the western CONUS as upper level high pressure is currently situated across the southwestern CONUS. A weak upper level low pressure trough is currently located across eastern Alberta. Additionally, an upper level closed low pressure system is located in northern Quebec accompanied with an upper level trough extending south into the South Atlantic states. South of this trough, Hurricane Ian is located north of far western tip of Cuba. At the surface, high pressure is extending from northern Ontario into Upper Midwest and portions of the High Plains.
741 PM EDT Tue Sep 27 2022 (through Tonight) The squeeze between building high pressure to the north and the advancement of Hurricane Ian from the south will enhance the pressure gradient through the night. Lows Tonight will range from the upper 50s over inland SE GA, to the lower 70s over coastal NE FL.
Temperatures should climb to the lower and perhaps middle 90s once again, but humidity will be the main story, or lack thereof. However, with an early Fall cold front, we have managed to grab hold of those cool mornings and it doesn't look like the humidity or moisture will return anytime soon. Expect temperatures to dip from perhaps as low as the upper 40s over the Hill Country to the lower 60s on Wednesday morning.
/TW/ Tonight and Tomorrow: Fire weather conditions will be the primary concern for the remainder of the forecast period as daytime heating will cause afternoon highs to range in the lower 80s through this afternoon. Along with the cooler daytime temperatures, the aforementioned daytime heating will mix down dewpoint temperatures into the upper 30s with critically low relative humidity values reaching into the 20-25% (portions of the NW Delta could see RH values into the upper teens). For tonight, radiative cooling will allow for RH values to climb back up into the upper 60s with minimum temperatures dipping into the low 50s. Wednesday, expect similar conditions with morning lows reaching the lower 50s. The previously mentioned wind gusts, combined with the low RH values will create dangerous fire weather conditions.