Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Today's high temps will be cooler east and north of Dodge in continued cloud and storm chances with highs in the mid 80s. For Wednesday, upper level warmer ridging builds into the western High Plains with highs warming into the mid to upper 90s far west near the Colorado border, to the low to mid 90s elsewhere.
TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOW 60S TO LOW 70S. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS LOCATED ROUGHLY ALONG AN IMPERIAL NEBRASKA TO NORTON KANSAS LINE. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDED ALONG THE FRONT RANGE. IT IS THIS TROUGH THAT WILL PROVIDE THE LIFT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. FLASH FLOODING WILL BE A CONCERN BUT UNSURE WHERE THE HIGHEST THREAT TAKES SHAPE THIS AFTERNOON.
430 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015 CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY FEATURES SOME WANING CONVECTION AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW SETS UP IN A RIDGE OVER THE WEST AND TROUGH OVER THE EAST WITH NUMEROUS WAVES TRAVELING OVER THE RIDGE AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FORMING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND FURTHER SOUTH.
652 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015 A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE REGION TODAY.
630 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015 WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ALONG THE COAST EARLY TODAY.
STRONG H5 TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL BRING MORE ORGANIZED FORCING FOR ASCENT DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND EXPECT BETTER COVERAGE ACROSS THE REST OF THE CWA AS IT MOVES INTO THE AREA. AS COLD FRONT SAGS INTO THAT AREA AHEAD OF THE UPPER WAVE. HOWEVER A FAIRLY SHARP LEE TROUGH/DRY LINE SETS UP NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER AREA AND MAY BE THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION.
511 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PRESS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY SLOWLY MOVING TOWARD THE COAST. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PRESS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY SLOWLY MOVING TOWARD THE COAST AS SHORT WAVES ROTATE ABOUT AN UPPER LOW MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. OVERALL THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL BE UNDER A LONGWAVE TROUGH HOWEVER IT WILL VARY IN STRENGTHEN AS SHORT WAVES MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW. TRACK AND STRENGTHEN OF THE LOW.
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE TRENDS THIS MORNING INDICATES AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE MID SOUTH STILL REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS THIS MORNING BUT ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE.
221 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015 220 AM CDT HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE WEATHER TODAY AND LIKELY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE RIDGE CENTER IS POSITIONED WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL WARM TO NEAR SEASONAL CONDS IN THE LOWER 80S. CLOSER TO LAKE MICHIGAN TEMPS MAY BE JUST A FEW DEGREES COOLER. ELSEWHERE WITH THE RIDGE CENTER DISPLACED NORTHEAST OF THE CWFA. HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL AGAIN APPROACH THE LOW 80S. MOST LOCATIONS WILL OBSERVE HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOW 80S.
FOLLOWING WHAT IS LIKELY THE BETTER CONVERGENCE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET AND LIFT ALONG THE 305K SURFACE. DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 80S MAY BE SLIGHTLY COOLER OUT WEST IF THE RAIN GETS IN FASTER. UPPER TROUGH'S PASSAGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHOULD KEEP MUCH OF THE NEXT PERIOD OR TWO DRY.
Cooler temperatures and windy conditions are expected. especially Tuesday and Wednesday following the arrival of a cold front. Exception is around Colville and Northport where a nearly stationary band of showers between 6 PM and 8 PM allowed the lower atmosphere to moisten with a couple places reporting.
TEMPS SHOULD BE A LITTLE COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. 00Z MODELS HAVE SHIFTED SOUTHWARD LOW PRESSURE TRACK INTO MID MS VALLEY DURING MID WEEK AND HENCE ARE SLOWER BRINGING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NE INTO CENTRAL IL TONIGHT AND WED. HIGHS WED MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 80S WITH LAWRENCEVILLE NEAR 85F.
1119 PM MDT MON AUG 3 2015 AN UPR TROF WL CONTINUE WORKING ITS WAY NORTHEASTWARD OVR CO THRU THIS EVENING. SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW DRIER AIR WORKING ITS WAY EASTWARD BEHIND THIS UPR TROF. MUCH OF THE MORE WIDESPREAD AND HEAVIER PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPR TROF WL LIKELY BE WORKING ITS WAY NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. AN UPR RIDGE WL THEN BE BUILDING OVR THE AREA THRU TUE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD STRONGLY FROM THE SOUTH FOR THE MID-WEEK PERIOD. ALONG WITH 80S FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
PLACED SOME LIGHT FOG AT TRI TOWARD DAYBREAK WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SATURATION OCCURRING IN THE COOLER VALLEY LOCALES.
TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN REACH THE LOW TO MID 90'S IN AREAS WEST OF THE PLATEAU TODAY WITH DEW POINTS MAYBE A DEGREE OR TWO HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY.
RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. 5 INCHES MOVING INTO THE LOWER VALLEY. THE DRIER AIR MIXING DOWN TO THE SFC WILL ALSO HELP TEMPERATURES SOAR INTO THE LOW 100S FOR NEARLY ALL OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THE LOWER DESERTS RANGING FROM 112 TO 115 DEGREES.
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING IS EXPECTED GIVEN THE LOWER SURFACE DEW POINTS.
309 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015 COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS WILL BE FELT TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS OVER THE REGION.
328 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015 WATER VAPOR/DATA ANALYSIS HAS A CLOSED MID-LEVEL LOW OVER EASTERN ONTARIO CANADA WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. LOOK FOR QUIET/DRY WEATHER TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL ACROSS THE REGION. GIVEN HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD TONIGHT AND LIGHT/CALM WINDS. QUIET/DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY WITH THE HIGH HOLDING OVERHEAD WITH HIGHS TOPPING OFF AGAIN IN THE MIDDLE 70S TO MIDDLE 80S.
TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT UPPER LOW ACROSS WY CONTINUES ITS TRACK TOWARD THE CWA THIS MORNING. CONVECTION WILL RAMP UP THIS AFTN INTO THE EVNG AS THE UPPER LOW CROSSES THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE SLIGHTLY COOLER. MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE. LARGE UPPER LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE TIP OF JAMES BAY. THE BETTER CHANCES WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE NORTHERN ZONES /FINGER LAKES THROUGH SYRACUSE-UTICA AREAS/ WHICH WILL HAVE BOTH MORE INSTABILITY FROM COOLER AIR ALOFT. WITH A COLD FRONT HAVING PASSED THROUGH. WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT LOOK RAIN-FREE, WITH WEAK SURFACE RIDGING OVERHEAD, AND NEGATIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION/SINKING MOTION ALOFT.
149 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT HELPING TO BRING AN END TO CONVECTION FROM EARLIER THIS EVENING. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA BEHIND THIS FRONT ON TUESDAY. THIS RIDGE SHOULD KEEP DRY WEATHER OVER THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
408 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015 EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND EVENING UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED A FLATTENED UPPER RIDGE STRETCHING ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS INTO TEXAS. HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO TOP OUT IN THE LOW 90S ALONG THE COAST. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW OVER THE PACIFIC APPROACHES THE WEST COAST.
ASIDE FROM A WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING SLOWLY ACROSS NORTHERN FL INTO FAR SE GA AND SOME OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT IN THE FAR NE MOUNTAINS. THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST HAS PROVEN TO BRING PATCHY EARLY MORNING FOG IN PORTIONS OF THE EAST AND SOUTH. LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL BE DIGGING ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD BY EARLY WEDNESDAY.
252 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015 BROAD TROUGHING EXISTS OVER ONTARIO/QUEBEC/NEW ENGLAND WHILE A WEAKLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. MEANWHILE, THE ADVERTISED SHEARED TROUGH STRETCHING FROM WY TO THE OZARKS WILL BEGIN TO AMPLIFY ON TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. LATEST ECMWF DOES SHOW A SLIGHTLY SLOWER PROGRESSION WITH THE TROUGH WHICH MAY NECESSITATE TAILORING BACK POPS ON WEDNESDAY MORNING. CLOUD COVER SHOULD INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE TROUGH.
THERE WILL BE A WARM FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TOMORROW. SHOULD HAVE TROUGHING IN THE NORTHEAST CONUS WITH RIDGING IN THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY AND ANOTHER TROUGH MOVING ONTO THE SW CANADIAN COAST. A LEE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SHOULD BE LOCATED FROM SW SDAK TO WEST TEXAS. WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE SDAK LOW INTO EASTERN NEB. COULD HAVE ONGOING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE WARM FRONT WHICH AT THIS TIME WOULD FAVOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR CWA. NAM AND GFS DIFFER SOMEWHAT ON INSTABILITY WITH GFS SHOWING HIGHER CAPE EXTENDING OVER MUCH OF THE CWA IN THE 00-03Z TIME FRAME WHILE NAM GENERATING HIGHEST CAPE CLOSER TO THE WARM FRONT IN THE NE.
307 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015 WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ALONG THE COAST TODAY RELEGATING PRECIPITATION CHANCES MAINLY TO THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN FORECAST AREA AND MAINLY EARLY TODAY.
353 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015 NUMERICAL AND MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN YESTERDAY.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHWEST WILL BRING A SLIGHT WARM UP FOR MIDWEEK. THEN A DRY TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST WILL PUSH EAST THROUGH THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK FOR A COOLING TREND.
606 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL PA EARLY TODAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE REGION DURING MIDWEEK.
158 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015 HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY.
433 AM MDT TUE AUG 4 2015 HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION TODAY RESULTING IN A DRAMATIC CHANGE FROM THE RECENT COOL AND STORMY WEATHER. A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON. A 500 MB TROUGH FEATURE BRUSHING NORTHERN UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING WILL CAUSE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN YIELDING INCREASED WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
BUT IN GENERAL FEEL THAT DRIER IS BETTER WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING FROM THE MIDWEST INTO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY.
241 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015 UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL LIFT NORTHEAST TODAY. AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL PUSH INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. WITH THE FREEZING LEVEL FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE 15. A WEAK AREA OF VORTICITY FROM AN OLD UPPER LOW WILL PUSH NORTHEAST. BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT (AROUND -7.
After today, the ridge begins to strengthen and rain chances will quickly exit the majority of the area except for the Davis Mountains where a few isolated showers may be possible again tomorrow. The rain that moved the through area should keep temperatures a degree or two cooler today, but things will quickly heat up by midweek.
348 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA LATER TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
SO FAR NOT MUCH STRENGTHENING OF THE LOW LEVEL JET HAS BEEN OBSERVED. UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ADVANCING INTO NORTHWEST PART OF FORECAST AREA EXPECTED TO INDUCE FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF MID-LEVEL TROF.
358 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015 CONVECTION WAS ONGOING THIS MORNING ALONG A WARM FRONT AND 2000 J/KG INSTABILITY AXIS DRAPED FROM SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA. BEFORE A SECOND AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPS OVER KANSAS WITH THE STRENGTHENING WARM FRONT.
WITH THE UPPER LOW STILL IN CONTROL OVER HUDSON BAY CANADA. BY TUESDAY THE LOW WILL HAVE MOVED EAST OF HUDSON BAY.
AN EARLY MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY REGION. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 500 MB HEIGHTS SHOWED THE PERSISTENT RIDGE WEST / TROUGH EAST PATTERN. EARLY MORNING READINGS WERE IN THE LOW/MID 70S WITH LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
230 AM PDT TUE AUG 4 2015 DRY AND COOLER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS CONTINUE TODAY ACROSS CENTRAL CALIFORNIA.
213 AM PDT TUE AUG 4 2015 WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHWEST WILL BRING A SLIGHT WARM UP FOR MIDWEEK. THEN A DRY TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST WILL PUSH EAST THROUGH THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK FOR A COOLING TREND.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL STILL LARGELY HAVE AN INFLUENCE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. THIS WILL BE ESPECIALLY TRUE OVER THE EASTERN CWA WHICH WILL BE CLOSER TO THE HIGH CENTER.
415 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015 THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS TO MUCH OF CENTRAL INDIANA INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER FOR NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES.
125 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015 SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIT THE AREA LATER TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. STORMS LINGERING OVER SOUTHWESTERN PA AND THE RIDGES OF NORTHERN WV AND WESTERN MARYLAND. THESE STORMS CONTINUE TO SLIDE EASTWARD ALONG THE PASSING COLD FRONT. ANOTHER DRY AND COMFORTABLE DAY WEDNESDAY WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND BROAD HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. WILL LIKELY SEE CU DEVELOP DURING THE DAY AS COOLER AIR ALOFT WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION.
330 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015 PERSISTENT LOW PRESSURE ALOFT. COOLER AIR MOVES IN FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD.
BUT THE HIGHER VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT NORTHEAST LATER TODAY AND FARTHER NORTH ON WEDNESDAY. COULD BE A TAD WARMER OUT WEST TODAY OR AT LEAST BY WEDNESDAY. HEAT INDICES 105 TO 109 TODAY MOST SOUTHERN AREAS (NEAR 110F AGAIN AT KNQI) WITH A BETTER CHANCE FOR HEAT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE WARMER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.
BROAD UPPER LONGWAVE TROUGH FROM EASTERN CANADA SOUTHWARD TO THE CAROLINAS CONTINUES TO LIFT NEWARD WHILE THE REGION REMAINS IN A WEAKNESS IN THE UPPER RIDGE FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TO OVER TEXAS. THE LOW LEVEL SPEED AND DIRECTIONAL CONVERGENCE BETWEEN THESE FEATURES SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVING ASHORE INTO THE FLOOD WATCH ZONES THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. SURFACE TO UPPER RIDGING TO INCREASE OVER THE REGION FOR A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME SCATTERED DIURNAL SEABREEZE INTERACTION CONVECTIVE PATTERN.
TEMPS WILL BE WARMER THAN YESTERDAY AS THICKNESSES INCREASE OVERHEAD BUT SHOULD STAY IN THE LOW 90S ON THE CAPROCK AND IN THE MID/UPPER 90S ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS. THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST REMAINS DRY AS WELL AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO THE WEST SLOWLY BEGINS ITS MIGRATION EASTWARD. ALDRICH RIDGING ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST INTO MID-LATE WEEK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ONLY FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S AS OPPOSED TO THE MID/UPPER 60S WE HAVE BEEN SEEING.
HOWEVER THE FORECAST TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE MCN TO CSG AREA HAVE BEEN TRENDING TOWARDS THE HIGH SIDE.
1237 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015 229 PM CDT UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE IS ANCHORED SOUTH OF HUDSON BAY. KEEPING A COOLER NW FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE IS ANCHORED JUST TO OUR WEST. ADDITIONAL CLOUDS ARE CONFINED TO WISCONSIN CLOSER TO THE LOW. MOST LOCATIONS WILL OBSERVE HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOW 80S.
DRY COLD FRONT WAS PUSHING EAST ACROSS THE SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE REGION DURING MIDWEEK.
1003 PM PDT MON AUG 3 2015 COOLER WEATHER THIS WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES BELOW AVERAGE FOR EARLY AUGUST THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
315 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015 EARLY THIS MORNING RADAR SHOWED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY 15 TO 50 NM OFFSHORE BETWEEN GRAND CHENIER AND THE LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. BEFORE A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES NORTHERN UTAH WEDNESDAY.
239 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015 220 AM CDT HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE WEATHER TODAY AND LIKELY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE RIDGE CENTER IS POSITIONED WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL WARM TO NEAR SEASONAL CONDS IN THE LOWER 80S. CLOSER TO LAKE MICHIGAN TEMPS MAY BE JUST A FEW DEGREES COOLER. ELSEWHERE WITH THE RIDGE CENTER DISPLACED NORTHEAST OF THE CWFA. HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL AGAIN APPROACH THE LOW 80S.
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE HOLDING STRONG OVER THE GREAT LAKES. HIGHS WILL BE COOLER BY THE LAKE. ONLY IN THE LOWER 70S.
OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FROM LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK AS UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES AND SHIFTS SLOWLY EAST.
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY, WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. ONE WILL BE OVER NORTHEAST PA AND THE WESTERN CATSKILLS, ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF A WEAK LOW-LEVEL TROUGH/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. THE SECOND WILL IMPACT THE NORTHERN FINGER LAKES, WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY, AND SOUTHERN TUG HILL REGIONS, AHEAD OF THE MAIN SURFACE COLD FRONT. WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT LOOK RAIN-FREE, WITH WEAK SURFACE RIDGING OVERHEAD, AND NEGATIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION/SINKING MOTION ALOFT.
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THIS PERIOD THOUGH IT WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST.
THE FAR WEST MAY BE A LITTLE WARMER WITH AN INCREASING SOUTHEAST FLOW. HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST TONIGHT. A SLIGHTLY WARMER TUESDAY IS EXPECTED WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALSO SLOWLY INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY. A MID LEVEL RIDGE/700-500MB.
Today's high temps will be cooler east and north of Dodge in continued cloud and storm chances with highs in the mid 80s.
BUT SHOULD MIX OUT ENOUGH TO KEEP THE HEAT INDEX IN THE LOW END OF THE TRIPLE DIGIT. IN THE WAKE OF THIS SHORT WAVE LOOK FOR THE UPPER RIDGE TO LIFT BACK FROM THE SOUTH OVER US AGAIN BY THE WEEKEND WITH CLIMBING AFTERNOON NUMBERS LIKELY. LAST NIGHTS SOUNDING LEFT US WITH MOISTURE IN THE LOWEST LEVEL AROUND 7. EXPECT THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN TO LINGER UNDER LOWER HEIGHTS ALOFT FOR A COUPLE OR FEW DAYS AND THEN DISAPPEAR AGAIN AS THE RIDGE EXPANDS BACK NORTHWARD.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHWEST WILL BRING A SLIGHT WARM UP FOR MIDWEEK. THEN A DRY TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST WILL PUSH EAST THROUGH THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK FOR A COOLING TREND. SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA REMAINS IN BETWEEN A LARGE SCALE UPPER TROUGH WELL OFF THE COAST AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AREA. THESE HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS WILL LIKELY HAVE AN IMPACT ON THE FORMATION OF THE LOWER LEVEL CLOUDS. *** FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION *** RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHWEST U. AHEAD OF THE OFFSHORE CLOSED LOW WILL BUMP UP TEMPERATURES BY WEDNESDAY TO MAKE IT THE WARMEST DAY OF THE 7-DAY FORECAST. FOR THE MOST PART HIGHS WILL STILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
A VERY SUBTLE LOW-LEVEL TROUGH IS EVIDENT IN THE STREAMLINE PATTERN FROM THE BAHAMAS TO CUBA. CURRENT AIR TEMPERATURES IN MOST KEYS ISLAND COMMUNITIES ARE IN THE LOWER 80S WITH DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S.
259 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015 220 AM CDT HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE WEATHER TODAY AND LIKELY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE RIDGE CENTER IS POSITIONED WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL WARM TO NEAR SEASONAL CONDS IN THE LOWER 80S. CLOSER TO LAKE MICHIGAN TEMPS MAY BE JUST A FEW DEGREES COOLER. ELSEWHERE WITH THE RIDGE CENTER DISPLACED NORTHEAST OF THE CWFA. HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL AGAIN APPROACH THE LOW 80S.
WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES.
ANOTHER DRY AND COMFORTABLE DAY WEDNESDAY WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND BROAD HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. WILL LIKELY SEE CU DEVELOP DURING THE DAY AS COOLER AIR ALOFT WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION.
108 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015 AVIATION COOLER AIR HAS SETTLED BACK IN ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
CONCERN WITH LOWER TEMPS WOULD LIE WITH ANY PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING AROUND AREAS WHERE RAIN FELL LEADING TO ISOLATED LOCATIONS DROPPING TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 70S.
/ISSUED 408 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015/ EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND EVENING UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED A FLATTENED UPPER RIDGE STRETCHING ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS INTO TEXAS. HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO TOP OUT IN THE LOW 90S ALONG THE COAST. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW OVER THE PACIFIC APPROACHES THE WEST COAST.
606 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015 PERSISTENT LOW PRESSURE ALOFT. COOLER AIR MOVES IN FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD.
S UPPER HIGH. THE HIGH-BASED AND LIGHT NATURE OF RAINFALL WILL ONLY YIELD SPOTTY AMOUNTS OF A TRACE TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS LIKE THE PAST FEW MORNINGS. S UPPER RIDGE GRADUALLY EXPANDS EAST ACROSS THE AREA IN RESPONSE TO UPPER LEVEL ENERGY DEEPENING ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND A CUT OFF UPPER LOW APPROACHES THE CA COASTLINE ON WEDNESDAY.
151 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015 WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. A WEAK PRESSURE TROUGH WILL LINGER IN THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY BUT DEEPER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE REGION. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOW/MID 70S. UPPER PATTERN FEATURES A ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ON WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE REGION WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE.
THE PATTERN HAS TURNED FROM HOT AND DRY TO COOLER AND MORE UNSETTLED. THE HOT UPPER RIDGE OF THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS HAS BEEN PUSHED EAST BY AN ADVANCING UPPER TROUGH MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. THIS TROUGH WILL PUSH ACROSS WESTERN ZONES THIS MORING. BUT THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE TROUGH STRETCHED TO SOUTHERN CANADA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL ZONES WITH EARLIER CONVECTION DEVELOPMENT.
529 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015 CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY FEATURES SOME WANING CONVECTION AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW SETS UP IN A RIDGE OVER THE WEST AND TROUGH OVER THE EAST WITH NUMEROUS WAVES TRAVELING OVER THE RIDGE AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. FEATURING AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE NEAR THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. WITH TROUGHING IN THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND NEAR THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. TROUGHING WILL BE MORE CONFINED TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD. WITH THE RIDGE SHIFTING EAST TOWARDS THE ARKLATEX REGION. WITH TROUGHING IN THE FAR WEST. WHILE THE RIDGE HOLDS FAST ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE CONUS.
UPPER LOW MOVING INTO SOUTHERN BC WITH A WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
The GFS is mostly dry while the high resolution short term models are indicating some isolated showers are possible, especially across Fisher, Nolan and Haskell Counties.
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUED TO DEVELOP IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. A RIDGE WAS MAINTAINED OVER THE CANADIAN ROCKIES AND FRONT RANGE. A LOW LEVEL JET WAS ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF EASTERN CO/WY AND WESTERN NE/SD NUDGING INTO EASTERN MONTANA. THE MODELS MOVE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EASTWARD TODAY. WITH THE RIDGE FLATTENING AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE. LOOK FOR HIGHS TODAY IN THE LOWER 80S NORTH CENTRAL THROUGH THE JAMES VALLEY TO THE UPPER 80S IN THE SOUTHWEST.
UPR TROF CENTERED OVER ERN ONTARIO WL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE MEAN RIDGE POSN WL BE OVER THE ROCKIES/WRN PLAINS. WITH A WK TROF OVER THE E. IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WL BE SOME TENDENCY FOR UPR ANTICYCLONE CENTER WITHIN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE SRN PLAINS DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD. AND WEDNESDAY SHRTWVS DROPPING SEWD ARND THE WRN FLANK OF LARGE SCALE TROF GENERATED ISOLD-SCT SHRA OVER NERN WI YDA. EITHER IN RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF DEPARTING ANTICYCLONE OR IN LAKE- BREEZE CONVERGENCE ZONE.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS TO MUCH OF CENTRAL INDIANA INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
635 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015 THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS TO MUCH OF CENTRAL INDIANA INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
TO THE NW OF THE TROF AXIS EXPECT TEMPS TO REACH INTO THE MID 90S AS A MID-LEVEL RIDGE NOSES IN OVER SE GA. IN THE MORNING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE TROF AXIS EXTENDING FROM GAINESVILLE NE THROUGH THE JAX METRO AREA. SW FLOW WILL DOMINATE ALONG THE TROF AXIS AND EARLY AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL FIRE IN THE FL BIG BEND REGION AND PUSH SLOWLY TO THE NORTHEAST. TROF AXIS LOOKS TO LIFT NORTH TOWARDS THE FL/GA BORDER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER 90S ACRS NE FL AND MIDDLE 90S ACRS SE GA AND THIS WILL LEAD TO HEAT INDICES INTO THE 100-105 DEG RANGE. TROF WILL PUSH THE NEXT WEAKENING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE SERN U.
352 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015 LARGE UPPER LOWS OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA AND HUDSON BAY WITH RIDGE THROUGH NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO CANADA. MOVING UNDER THE RIDGE. BROAD TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS FROM HUDSON BAY LOW INTO THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. AS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST NORTHEAST TODAY CONVECTION WILL BEGIN OVER SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND THE SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA PANHANDLE ALONG STATIONARY BOUNDARY.
THIS CHANGES ON WEDNESDAY AS THE 700 MB RIDGE SHIFTS EAST TO COASTAL GA AND THE SW FLOW INCREASES DEEP MOISTURE.