Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
226 AM EDT Wed Jun 9 2021 With upper level ridging moving over the area and slightly less available moisture the chances for diurnal showers and thunderstorms will be lower over the next couple of days. An upper level trough will dig into the Mid Atlantic States late this week and into the weekend keeping rain chances in the forecast. Synoptic situation will change slightly today as upper level ridging builds over the area while the best moisture slides away from the area.
MVFR to VFR conditions prevail through the period with the lower ceilings and visibility typically with patchy fog late tonight and showers and storms on Wednesday.
451 AM EDT Wed Jun 9 2021 A cold front is currently dropping south across our forecast area with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms early this morning.
Coupled with forcing ahead of the trough in the form of upper level divergence and midlevel vorticity advection, PoPs will be categorical this afternoon for the entire area. Tall, skinny CAPE profiles and a low LCL/high freezing level will make the storms today efficient rain producers, so there will be a potential for localized flooding, especially west of I-75 where CAMS suggest a more prolonged period of rain and possible training cells. The bes forcing moves out of our area this evening, but rain chances will continue overnight with the very moist air mass and the slow-moving trough axis still to our west.
1010 PM CDT Tue Jun 8 2021 Another evening with areal temps still in the low 80s and dew points in the mid to upper 70s, resulting in heat index values at 10pm in the low 90s in spots.
Thinking most areas will see more sun than on Tuesday, and with the area in the warm 850 mb ridge highs will be higher for most. Short wave moving northeast thru western ND into western Manitoba this morning will move east on top of 500 mb ridge and affect mainly SE Manitoba, NW Ontario around Kenora and parts of NW MN.
1044 PM CDT Tue Jun 8 2021 Frontal boundary/outflow from morning MCS hovering across central MN/northern WI while Closed low was still pinwheeling across MO/western IL. Mid-level stretching deformation from that closed low could swing a few showers/storms in across southern forecast area (south of I-90) while that boundary up north acts as a focus for some convection on our northern fringes.
The main upper level low is centered over IL/IN this morning.
/22/ A few straggling storms remain across the Highway 82 corridor and north. Closed low aloft will become less organized & progged to slowly move E-NE out of the Ozarks into the Mid-Upper MS Valley. Wednesday: Trough axis will propagate across the region on Wednesday, leading to increased low-level convergence & ascent. Highs will again near normals, but slightly cooler in the N & E where more rain/storms will reside.
357 AM CDT Wed Jun 9 2021 Isolated convection that formed on the southwest flank of a weak upper low not far to the northeast diminished early Tuesday evening with generally clear skies and and light winds since.
/issued 353 AM CDT Wed Jun 9 2021/ Upper level ridging is over West Texas and Southeast New Mexico with an upper trough just off the west coast. The NAM12 was reasonably accurate on high temperatures yesterday so have went slightly cooler than the NBM for today's high temperatures across the eastern Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos.
As an upper trough continues offshore southerly ridge level winds continue to feed warm and moist air into the region at lower levels while the upper trough pattern continues to feed cooler air aloft, resulting in increasing instability through the day. The area of instability moves mostly to the east side later this evening as the upper trough axis shifts over the region. A brief weak upper ridge then builds over the region Thursday, but then shifts quickly east ahead of a front that brings precipitation to the coast by late Thursday evening.
The upper ridge is progged to pop back up over our area overnight and on Thursday. The aforementioned developing trough out west will begin to send precip chances back on the rise across our western zones toward the end of the period. When the period opens, there is a cold front beginning to work into the region.
512 AM EDT Wed Jun 9 2021 Another warm and humid day anticipated with a risk of showers and thunderstorms as a cold front sweeps through the region. Mainly Dry and cooler Thursday but there will remain a small chance of a shower or storm over the Southern Tier.
At risk of sounding like a broken record, another persistence forecast is on tap with high temperatures topping out in the low to mid 90s through Thursday. However, any convection that develops is expected to be short lived due to the weak vertical wind shear and lack of forcing under the upper level ridge. Otherwise, dry conditions persist and with lows in the low 70s.
647 AM EDT Wed Jun 9 2021 With upper level ridging moving over the area and slightly less available moisture the chances for diurnal showers and thunderstorms will be lower over the next couple of days. An upper level trough will dig into the Mid Atlantic States late this week and into the weekend keeping rain chances in the forecast. Synoptic situation will change slightly today as upper level ridging builds over the area while the best moisture slides away from the area. Upper ridging will begin to weaken Thursday with PWATs remaining anomalously high, around 1. Seasonable highs in the low 90s with dew points in the low 70s which will make it feel quite miserable. Low level jet and continued low level moisture Thursday night keep lows mainly in the low 70s as well.
Much quieter today and tonight as a S/WV mid level ridge momentarily builds across the Dakotas.
Guidance has trended slightly cooler, so the official forecast was trended that way as well. Southerly flow will strengthen ahead of an approaching trough on Thursday. Coupled with air temperatures solidly in the low-mid 90s, this will result in heat index values around 100 degrees. The trough will pass largely to our northwest, initiating convection over the panhandle and western SD late Thursday afternoon.
Strong gusty winds ahead of a cold front are expected today. Scattered rain showers develop across the north with cooler temperatures this evening and Thursday.
612 AM MDT Wed Jun 9 2021 Northern plains remains in southwest flow, with the persistent upper trough over the west coast. At the surface, low pressure is moving from southeastern MT to southwestern ND. Generally quiet weather can be expected today, beneath the upper ridge axis. West coast trough will approach the northern plains through the day, reaching the northern Rockies by evening. At the surface, deepening low pressure over southeastern MT will result in breezy southerly winds across the CWA, advecting hot, moist air into the western SD plains behind the warm front to our north. Upper-level support doesn't arrive until early evening, with storms expected to fire along the cold front near the SD/WY border by 00Z or so.
Both these features will partially disrupt the heating cycle so the temperature forecast leans toward the warmer guidance for temperatures which is a degree or two lower than the warmest numbers- the ECM guidance and Canadian regional model. This very strong cap will limit mixing and force moisture to pool in the lower levels. The temperature forecast Thursday, like Wednesday, leans toward the warmer guidance.
DGS Chattanooga Airport, TN 82 71 83 71 85 / 80 50 80 60 60 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 82 69 82 70 82 / 70 50 80 70 70 Oak Ridge, TN 80 70 81 69 82 / 70 50 80 70 70 Tri Cities Airport, TN 82 67 81 68 80 / 60 60 80 70 70.
This activity is being driven by the circulation around a once closed low that has now become an open trough whose axis is progged to slowly shift southeast through tonight as mid level ridging strengthens from the southwest.
1021 AM EDT Wed Jun 9 2021 The early morning weather conditions were quite similar today as yesterday, with scattered shower activity across much of the Lower Keys as well as portions of the Middle Keys. With high pressure firmly planted over Bermuda and the lack of any major forcing for ascent, slight chance PoPs (10%) seems appropriate through this afternoon. High pressure located near Bermuda will result in moderate to occasionally fresh east to southeast breezes through Thursday night.
Old upper low is even more diffuse with lack of any appreciable CVA signals that were noted yesterday. Ontario ridge will actually start having a greater influence over Great Lakes region. Old upper low continues to drift SE so perhaps another step down in coverage but still plenty of low level moisture around and hints of weak convergence over our CWA. Likely PoP's again may be a touch on the high side but expect at least SCT convection during peak heating with heavy rain being the primary threat.
Dominant high pressure still maintains a grip on the local pattern, with the ridge axis draped over the northern third of the peninsula. Southeast flow will relax through the afternoon, shifting onshore late in the day as the ridge begins to fall southward into central FL. Raised temps just slightly over the interior for the afternoon, with highs in the low to mid 90s inland, upper 80s at the coast.
Rain chances are on the low side today, so will hold off any mention of SHRA or TSRA in current TAFS. At the surface, the subtropical ridge axis extends from the western Atlantic across northern Florida and will gradually slip south through the rest of the workweek.
By Thurs, Cntrl US ridging wl begin to expand over the FA, positioning a fetch of N/Wrly H500 flow over the Mid-MS river valley. The lingering upper low that has been positioned over the Natural State for the last few days wl be shifting Ewrd. With upper ridging building in, a transition to a summertime diurnal precipitation pattern is expected, with afternoon showers/tstorms possible across the FA Thurs afternoon, and high temps climbing into the upper 80s at most locations, and some areas over the south reaching the low 90s.
Deep trough remains just off the coast with an extensive band of high clouds moving up from the south-southwest covering NorCal early this morning. Onshore surface pressure gradients have relaxed considerably since yesterday as cooler temperatures have spread inland across the region weakening the thermal gradient. Upper trough forecast to finally swing inland later today. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are expected across the northern third of the forecast area, and a few showers will be possible late this afternoon and evening across the northern Sierra as the strong vort at the base of the trough moves into central California.
621 AM CDT Wed Jun 9 2021 (Today and tonight) The oppressive heat of summer has arrived in West Central Texas, thanks to a 594dam ridge at the 500mb level. This ridge, which is currently over northern Mexico and the Big Bend region, will strengthen and expand northeastward today. Temperatures at 850mb will be 2-3 deg C warmer than yesterday, or about 21-24 deg C across the area. This, combined with the lack of convective debris that has occurred the past two mornings, should translate to surface temperatures about 5-7 degrees warmer than yesterday.
/Today through Thursday/ Stagnant upper level pattern continues to shift, as the upper ridge builds newd from W TX and the persistent upper low drifts newd. This should result in much less coverage of convection today as opposed to previous days, as the upper ridge increases its influence upon our region. Have maintained chance PoPs across these areas both for tonight and Thursday, as they remain on the nern fringes of the upper ridge, subject to passing impulses. As for temps this pd, expecting to see a gradual warming trend as the ridge gains influence.
Short-term solutions keeping bulk of the low clouds just north until dissipating shortly after daybreak, while area of low clouds further south veers to the northeast and also dissipates. Upper level high pressure will build overhead but isolated high-based thunderstorms still could develop along the surface dryline later today, which should be near the edge of the Caprock escarpment.
646 AM CDT Wed Jun 9 2021 A mid/upper level trough remains over the Mississippi Valley this morning. The long wave trough will be moving east into the Ohio Vally on Thursday, but guidance continues to show one last round of scattered afternoon convection associated another short wave which dives south into the base of the trough.
North of the low, very moist upslope flow will continue to wrap around to the west onto the central high plains, leading to areas of low cloudiness and fog in the mornings. We will actually see the formation of a weak meso-high pressure center in this area due to upslope cooling near the ground. If the moisture hangs in all day today then even Elkhart could stay in the upper 80s to lower 90s for highs and perhaps a little warmer for Thursday. Therefore, we expect no surface based severe t-storms to develop this week despite the high potential instability.
Highs today will top out in the lower to middle 90s for the Hill Country and areas east of the I35 corridor. Dewpoints in this region should be in the lower to middle 70s leading to heat index values this afternoon in the 104 to 109 degree range. A strong upper ridge will continue to have a hold on our weather for the short-term period and therefore, dry weather is expected to persist for the area.
A stubborn long-wave trough over the west coast will send one more s/wv through the Great Basin later today and Thursday. This sets the stage for a pattern shift by the weekend, when the west coast trough begins to break down, allowing for a massive ridge to develop over the southwestern United States.
419 AM CDT Wed Jun 9 2021 A mid/upper level trough remains over the Mississippi Valley this morning. The long wave trough will be moving east into the Ohio Vally on Thursday, but guidance continues to show one last round of scattered afternoon convection associated another short wave which dives south into the base of the trough.
The pesky upper low continues to meander around leading to numerous showers and storms for our area for the next three days.
741 AM EDT Wed Jun 9 2021 A cold front is currently dropping south across our forecast area, drier air will move into our region behind this frontal passage with sunny skies expected this afternoon.
947 AM EDT Wed Jun 9 2021 The Bermuda high pressure ridging into the southeastern states will today will weaken Thursday as an upper level trough crosses the eastern states through the end of the week. Upper level ridging will briefly increase across the region today. Bermuda high pressure ridging into the southeastern states will continue a moist southerly flow. Upper ridging will begin to weaken Thursday with PWATs remaining anomalously high, around 1. Seasonable highs in the low 90s with dew points in the low 70s which will make it feel quite miserable. Low level jet and continued low level moisture Thursday night keep lows mainly in the low 70s as well.
/issued 225 AM CDT Wed Jun 9 2021/ Upper level low pressure area has shifted into the western Gulf.
These small waves are providing just enough lift to properly vent storms over the Lower Mississippi Valley. WPC has gone ahead and issued a High Risk of Excessive Rainfall for almost all of north Mississippi with a moderate risk around the high and into portions of west Tennessee. There is still some concern that the flash flood threat could continue into Thursday morning as the upper low remains nearly stationary and the airmass relatively unchanged.
A few showers are noted in the FL Big Bend currently and thats where the highest rain chances are for the day. Afternoon highs are expected to be in the low to mid 90s, except upper 80s along the coast.
632 AM CDT Wed Jun 9 2021 Water vapor imagery shows what is left of a weak upper impulse tracking across the Mid Mississippi Valley with a deep upper trough about to come onshore over the Pacific Northwest. At the surface, lee troughing remains in place with a large area of light return flow across the Plains into the Mississippi Valley. Upper ridging is still expected to build this weekend into the start of the work week from northern Mex into the southern/Central Plains. This will keep above normal temps in place with highs generally in the low to possibly mid 90s. Both ECMWF and GFS try and lift some weak upper energy out of the Desert Southwest and into the High Plains.
Showers and thunderstorms reenter the forecast over the weekend with the highest chances favoring the central mountains and eastward. Pressure heights will trend up today and winds will trend down as an upper level high over northern Mexico expands north into New Mexico. A Pacific trough, currently approaching the west coast, will swing northeast across the Great Basin toward the Rockies Thursday, bringing increased southwest flow to New Mexico.
1019 AM EDT Wed Jun 9 2021 An upper level ridge over the Southeast coast will slowly give way to an approaching trough from the Ohio Valley through late week.
Isolated to scattered convection should continue through the first half of the day in this area as convergent flow in the wind field prevails between the southerly flow east of Ohio Valley low pressure and northerlies dropping in from Canada and the north east. Convection may become more focused as a better-defined trough moves into the greater I-80 corridor this afternoon.
Expect another breezy afternoon with typical early June temperatures from the low 90s east to just over 100 degrees across the west.
As upper heights build overhead today and tomorrow, expect highs in the low to mid 90s again today and even warmer highs into the mid to upper 90s on Thursday.
Weak troughing will remain offshore through the day today, potentially generating some isolated shower chances.
1011 AM EDT Wed Jun 9 2021 A cold front is currently dropping south across our forecast area, drier air will move into our region behind this frontal passage with sunny skies expected this afternoon.
705 AM EDT Wed Jun 9 2021 An upper level ridge over the Southeast coast will slowly give way to an approaching trough from the Ohio Valley through late week.
741 AM EDT Wed Jun 9 2021 Another warm and humid day anticipated with a risk of showers and thunderstorms as a cold front sweeps through the region. Mainly Dry and cooler Thursday but there will remain a small chance of a shower or storm over the Southern Tier.
1138 AM EDT Wed Jun 9 2021 Another warm and humid day anticipated with a risk of showers and thunderstorms as a cold front sweeps through the region. Mainly Dry and cooler Thursday but there will remain a small chance of a shower or storm over the Southern Tier.
The exception is still north central South Dakota where Mobridge winds remain light. The upper ridge is progged to pop back up over our area overnight and on Thursday. The aforementioned developing trough out west will begin to send precip chances back on the rise across our western zones toward the end of the period. When the period opens, there is a cold front beginning to work into the region.
129 PM EDT Wed Jun 9 2021 A cold front is currently dropping south across our forecast area, drier air will move into our region behind this frontal passage with sunny skies expected this afternoon.
255 PM EDT Wed Jun 9 2021 High pressure remains centered across the southeast US. Highest precip chances remain across the north where there is less influence from the upper ridging across the northern GOMEX. NListemaa Tropical, summertime conditions will persist through the end of the week as low-level ridging extended from the Bermuda High continues to push a warm, moist Gulf airmass into the eastern CONUS.
BW Chattanooga Airport, TN 71 83 71 85 70 / 60 80 60 60 60 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 69 82 70 82 70 / 50 80 70 70 60 Oak Ridge, TN 70 81 69 82 68 / 50 80 70 70 60 Tri Cities Airport, TN 67 81 68 80 67 / 60 80 70 70 70.
Mid/upr level ridge will remain over the area in the short term resulting in dangerously hot conditions in the western brush country and Rio Grande Plains where heat indices are expected to exceed 110 this afternoon. This ridge will edge slightly westward on Thursday.
1258 PM CDT Wed Jun 9 2021 A mid/upper level trough remains over the Mississippi Valley this morning. The long wave trough will be moving east into the Ohio Vally on Thursday, but guidance continues to show one last round of scattered afternoon convection associated another short wave which dives south into the base of the trough.
210 PM EDT Wed Jun 9 2021 A persistent upper level low pressure center located east of Chillicothe will weaken and translate northeast Thursday as a more defined and slightly stronger low develops overnight along the IN/OH/KY tri-state area.
With the broad upper level trough weakening and beginning to shift to our east, the shower activity has been much less than the past couple of days. With the trough even farther to our east any shower activity should be even less than today.
344 PM CDT Wed Jun 9 2021 The stubborn upper-level trough that has helped bringing copious rainfall to the Mid-South continues to spin overhead this afternoon. Semi-organized convection will rotate around the parent trough, though coverage and intensity are not expected to be on par with what we've been seeing the past few days.
SHORT TERM (Tonight through Thursday Night): Status quo forecast in general rides for the next 36 hours as 500 mb ridge stretches northeast fro Chihuahua and Durango Mexico into the west half of Texas into Thursday night. While the center of the ridge is in the classic "La Canicula" position (Texas Big Bend through Chihuahua State), the elongation northeast to southwest is not classic for big heating and subsidence across northeast Mexico into the Rio Grande Valley. Rather, an inverted 500 mb trough approaches from the southwest Gulf, and while deeper moisture remains well south and east of the region, the atmospheric profile cools a little headed into Thursday night.
/Tonight through Thursday Night/ An upper-trough across the Mississippi River Valley to support increased instability across much of Northeast Louisiana, southern Arkansas and portions of southeast Oklahoma overnight. Upper-level trough to move very little through the short-term period, leading to some uncertainty in the forecast beyond 24 hours. However, at this time, expecting somewhat of a drying pattern to set up as upper-ridge nudges eastward. Temperatures through the short term period to range from highs in the lower 90s to lows in the mid 70s.
This heat is courtesy of a large ridge of high pressure over the central CONUS. GOES-16 water vapor was showing a weak mid-level trough/associated thunderstorm activity moving over the top of this ridge over ND/southern Manitoba. This trough energy and storms are expected to stay well north of the area over northern MN/southern Ontario through tonight. Meanwhile, a closed low was moving through southern IL with a few showers/storms staying just south of our area. Isolated showers and storms could pop up Thursday in daytime heating aided by that aforementioned weak trough rounding the ridge over us. Otherwise, another hot day in store with highs in the low-mid 90s.
There is also an outside chance that some weakening thunderstorms could briefly make it into the far western edges of Sterling, Irion, or Crockett counties, but have kept PoPs here in the low end of Slight Chance with convective inhibition in our area quite strong underneath the upper level ridge.
General thunder storms expected through the early evening hours with a low chance of severe along and north of the highway 2 corridor from Fosston eastward over the next few hours where shear is a bit stronger. Activity will move off to the east and a quiet overnight is expected with 500mb ridging aloft and relatively warm lows in the 60s with some 50s in the DVL basin. A warm, dry and sunny day is expected Thursday as winds begin to increase from the east with strong low pressure development in the eastern MT.