Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
/issued 311 AM EDT Sun Jun 23 2019/ Another uncomfortably warm day is in store across South Florida today with deep layer ridging remaining in place. The highest heat indices are expected across SW Florida, and a Heat Advisory has been issued for Collier and Mainland Monroe Counties to reflect this.
Upper ridge axis is finally expected to start translating east across the region today/tonight shifting the primary zone for more organized convective complexes riding down through the northwest flow out of the forecast area. Weak frontal boundary sinks into the state Monday as the upper ridge axis slips east of the area and the region is brushed by the tail-end of short wave sweeping through the Ohio Valley/Great Lakes. Nearly zonal flow aloft on top of a ridge is expected for the first part of the week. The pattern will shift for the latter part of the week as an upper low meanders over the central Gulf States. The low begins to retrograde by the end of the week/early part of the weekend.
Rain and snow showers continue along and north of Interstate 70 where favorable orographic flow squeezes out moisture wrapping around our vacating upper level low pressure system. By this afternoon, the upper level low will be kicking east with showers ending from west to east. This strong WAA promises to keep the lows up tonight as we clear out, although a few high valleys (Gunnison) may yet dip down toward that freezing mark by early Monday morning. Will hold on any additional freeze highlights as guidance has been trending warmer. Valley temps rebound into the 70s and 80s with 60s planned for the higher elevations. More June-like pattern setting up as we see a ridge of high pressure build across the area driving our lingering low level moisture eastward by mid-week.
/issued 354 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2019/ This morning the region is stuck between an upper trough over the Rockies and a ridge centered over the Gulf. As the trough moves east a flat ridge will extend W to E across the Southern tier of states Monday with a slow increase in high pressure through mid week. Later in the week the ridge axis shifts west to nrn Mexico. Guidance is expecting cooler conditions tonight/Monday morning with most low temps in the 60s but have been unusually warm overnight in the 70s the past few days. On Monday these low chances spread back across the Lower Trans Pecos. Seasonal low pops will continue through the extended and favor the higher elevations.
Isentropic fields depicting enhanced ascent later today as H5 trough begins to lift northeast across central and northern plains, so expect up-tic in coverage of convection later this morning. Kinematic forcing also expected to increase with approach of upper trough, with projected 0-6km bulk shear 45-65kt. Cold core of upper low also will result in showers and isolated thunder across northeast Nebraska and northwest Iowa.
an upper level low pressure area centered over the northern Colorado rockies early this morning is expected to drift into northeast Colorado late this morning then over the Tri-State area by the end of the day. Given cold pool overhead with upper low wont take much to produce hail. Precipitation chances slowly decrease this evening then end before midnight as the trough and its moisture lift northeast and out of the area. High temperatures range from the low 60s to around 70 in far eastern Colorado to the mid 60s to low 70s elsewhere across the area. Low temperatures range from the low 50s west to low 60s east.
331 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2019 An upper level low with -19C temperatures at h500mb will move over wrn and ncntl Nebraska early this evening. This middle-of-the-road approach is warmer than the straight guidance blend by a degree or two. The models continue to show an upper level ridge building into New and old Mexico this week supporting warm weather across wrn and ncntl Nebraska. At the same time, another deep upper level low will move toward and into the Pacific Northwest. The result will be a long wave trof through the desert Southwest.
440 PM EDT Sun Jun 23 2019 High pressure will extend from the Atlantic westward into the Gulf of Mexico through the middle of the week. North of this ridge troughing will linger in the forecast area. Upper ridging appears a little stronger this afternoon although some weak cold advection at 500 mb. Temperatures tonight falling into the lower 70s. High pressure aloft builds over the Southeast U.
Dry conditions return Monday night as weak high pressure moves over the region. A pattern shift is expected to begin at the start of the period with a deepening western CONUS/NW Pacific trough, leading to gradually building ridging overhead. We'll definitely see the building of a mid-level ridge/elevated mixed layer, with 700mb temperatures nearing a standard deviation above climo, or around +12 to +14C. As the surface it looks like primarily southeast low level flow, so less then efficient low level mixing which 1) means we probably won't reach extreme high temperatures despite the warmer air aloft and 2) a strong CAP suggests most convection will probably be elevated despite a high degree of instability.
228 PM EDT Sun Jun 23 2019 High pressure will push off the Mid Atlantic coast tonight.
A broad trough remains on track to overtake the Northwest Coast, resulting in an active southwesterly flow for north-central Idaho and western Montana. Patchy fog is again possible during Monday morning, with northwest Montana having the highest chances for fog due to high dew points and persistent showers.
106 PM EDT Sun Jun 23 2019 High pressure slides off the coast this afternoon into tonight.
As a somewhat cooler airmass settles into the southern Plains early Monday, winds will become more uniformly northerly, but should remain relatively light. Showers and thunderstorms will continue to move across portions of the area this morning with the highest chances across northern Oklahoma.
1233 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2019 Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms were observed across the local area overnight as an upper level low visible in satellite imagery near the Colorado/Wyoming state line slowly began to shift east. Expect this low to finally make its way across the local area late tonight. Ahead of this low. Monday will be a day of transition across the local area as we will have an area of low pressure exiting to the east with generally westerly flow aloft ahead of an upper level low forecast to dig across the west coast. an upper level low is expected to meander across the Pacific northwest for several days while high pressure amplifies aloft across the plains.
1112 AM MDT Sun Jun 23 2019 A broad trough covers the western and central CONUS, with the low over southern WY/northwestern CO. Temperatures will be in the lower 70s, with 60s in the Black Hills.
253 PM EDT Sun Jun 23 2019 High pressure will push off the Mid Atlantic coast tonight.
Dew points are in the low 70s area wide, and this combination is helping to grow instability. Shear is on the low side, so that is going to help subdue much activity, but hi-res guidance continues to show yet another wave of showers and thunderstorms developing upstream late this afternoon and trying to make their way across the TN River early this evening.
As they near Middle TN, they will be passing through an instability axis that should top out around 3000 J/Kg due to environmental temps in the low 90s and dew points in the low 70s. Highs in the low 90s will return on a regular basis, fueling those afternoon/early evening thunderstorm chances each day this week.
Despite the fact that the main cold front and upper trough still remain to our west, available high-res model guidance has been insistent that only isolated convection will be possible later this afternoon and evening. In any event, expect isolated activity this evening and overnight as the main cold front begins working into our area from the west, with this activity gradually tapering off towards sunrise.
128 PM EDT Sun Jun 23 2019 High pressure slides off the coast this afternoon into tonight.
Ample instability south of a warm frontal boundary that is lifting across the area has led to some strong storms developing over the southern Plateau.
Upper-level ridging will gradually build into the area through Wed w/ large scale subsidence greatly limiting rain chances. Warm and dry southwest flow aloft prevails, and with relatively warm temperatures aloft, and limited moisture, maximum temperatures will be warmer than normal with little or no chance of showers or thunderstorms.
The low level jet increases to near 40 knots and is aimed at the I94 corridor from 02z to 07z. local wind gusts look to be the main threat considering the low level jet that will be in the area.
259 PM MDT Sun Jun 23 2019 An upper low is crossing northeast Colorado into western Nebraska while northwest low level flow persists today across much the Dakotas. Weak ridging will take over late tonight and tomorrow morning behind the departing upper low, bringing a small break in the precipitation. Slightly warmer temps will work their way into the region, with highs 5-10 degrees warmer than today.
Wind shear is low, however this high CAPE environment will result in very powerful updrafts. As the main upper trough axis shifts across the area later today, expect discrete storms to form at first and then evolve into an MCS this evening and overnight producing damaging winds.
No major changes were needed as precipitation chances will increase overnight as the upper ridge axis shifts east and moisture advection increases ahead of an approaching warm front. Additionally, if the ridge is able to shift northward enough, increased sunshine Monday afternoon will further increase parcel buoyancy. Surface cold front will push through a large portion of the area Monday evening.
A weak cold front will keep temperatures below normal with breezy conditions through the Cascade Mountains and out into the basin.
Ridging will maintain dry conditions today with plenty of sunshine and near normal daytime highs. Precipitation chances will increase overnight as the upper ridge axis shifts east and moisture advection increases ahead of an approaching warm front. Additionally, if the ridge is able to shift northward enough, increased sunshine Monday afternoon will further increase parcel buoyancy. Surface cold front will push through a large portion of the area Monday evening.
The wave would then be forced to lift NE early Mon morning as it encounters a STRONG upper-deck ridge punching from about WV to Hudson Bay. This would push the attendant cold front, that this afternoon curves from the IA/Nebraska border thru South- Central KS to West TX, E/SE the rest of the afternoon & evening. It'll get warmer & increasingly humid Tue & Wed as southerly flow returns to KS. The upper-deck ridge will really amplify Fri & Sat & be anchored over all of the Great Plains.
A warm front will lift northeast of the area tonight. Then, a strong upper trough will push a cold front through the area late Monday and Monday night. After that, high pressure will result in mostly dry weather with above normal temperatures. With the warm front expected to be north of the area tonight and late day dew points in the lower 70s, good confidence in blend overnight lows in the upper 60s and lower 70s.
On Monday, areas east of I-29 will see rain linger through the morning hours as the low pressure system exits to the east. Temperatures will be just below average in the high 70s and low 80s.
The low-amplitude upper ridge across the Great Basin will begin a warming trend which will last through at least the middle of the coming week. The upper low developing along the BritCol coast today will strengthen as it works south along coast early in the week.
Isolated storms will be possible this afternoon, but due to the low confidence that the storms will impact any of the TAF sites, have kept storms out of the current TAFs. Cooler air will be in place across the northern Panhandles. Highs across the north will be in the mid to upper 70s and in the lower to mid 80s across the south.
229 PM EDT Sun Jun 23 2019 High pressure slides off the coast this afternoon into tonight.
302 PM EDT Sun Jun 23 2019 Under mostly sunny skies and light southeast winds, temperatures are mainly in the lower 90s along the island chain. The deep tropospheric, east-west oriented ridge lying across extreme South Florida, the Florida Keys and the adjacent Atlantic and Gulf waters will slowly weaken and gradually retrograde northwestward over the next several days. Because of this, moisture below 850 mb will be on the increase along with the loss of the inversion and isothermal layer in the low levels.
Dew points are in the low 70s area wide, and this combination is helping to grow instability. Shear is on the low side, so that is going to help subdue much activity, but hi-res guidance continues to show yet another wave of showers and thunderstorms developing upstream late this afternoon and trying to make their way across the TN River early this evening. Chance of storms directly affecting terminals is too low to mention this afternoon, however chances will increase for CKV, BNA , and MQY by this evening and into the overnight hours as an upper trough pushes east.
242 PM EDT Sun Jun 23 2019 High pressure slides off the coast this afternoon into tonight.
These showers are weakening and are expected to continue to diminish, while slowly following the trough axis out of the area. The trough itself will propagate eastward away from Wyoming today, and should be out of the region by nightfall.
333 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2019 Upper trof axis this afternoon has advanced to the KS/CO border, while area of thunderstorms from yesterday has moved far south and east of the forecast area. Broken sunny spots have risen into middle upper 70s, while the remainder holds in the low to middle 70s. Convection noted firing up right along the east side of the trof axis, with short term guidance bringing this area westward and weakening later this evening over our forecast area. In the wake of the upper trough on Monday expect a dry period to ensue along with mostly clear skies. Highs on Monday should range from the upper 70s to the lower 80s with dew points mainly in the 50s will make for pleasant weather.
137 PM EDT Sun Jun 23 2019 High pressure slides off the coast this afternoon into tonight.
The PAH forecast area will be between disturbances aloft for the rest of the evening while the lower troposphere stabilizes. In general, high pressure at the surface will combine rising mid/upper level heights to provide a primarily rain-free period and seasonably warm/humid air across the region. Only caveat is the possibility of a weak mid-level low pressure system getting cut off underneath the main westerlies up to the north.
213 PM EDT Sun Jun 23 2019 High pressure will continue to bring dry weather conditions to the area through tonight.
346 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2019 Circulation around an upper-level wave over northeast Colorado is helping support thunderstorm development along a surface cold front this afternoon.
Currently, upper level low continues to slowly lift north across south central Canada, with a S/WV trough to our south across the Central Plains.
236 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2019 Impressive upper level trough, currently over eastern CO, will swing through the CWA today. The associated Pacific cold front, that began its southward progression through the FA early this morning, has stalled across the southern Rolling Plains with the dryline just through the Rolling Plains. Zonal to northwest flow aloft will set up tomorrow as the upper trough pushes east. As with today, CAPE values will be robust however, Shear values will limited and convective temperatures will be harder to reach thanks to todays cold front.
Now, even global models pick up on the northern complex forecast to develop over central Texas ahead of a weak frontal boundary and the passage of an upper level trough over the Southern Plains.
Strong diurnal heating and weak divergence aloft supporting convective activity but moisture availability is on the low side so activity is mostly weak and decrease in the evening hours. Overnight temperatures are trending warmer than previous days which is helped by a westerly pressure gradient producing mixing. Mountain shower activity should be a bit stronger and more numerous but the low level western should limit this activity from moving too far off the foothills.
621 PM MDT Sun Jun 23 2019 The back side of a low pressure system is spinning some clouds and light showers and a couple thunderstorms over northern portions of the forecast area this afternoon. Took a close look at low temperatures in the Gunnison area tonight but given expected clouds and recent moisture decided to keep lows above freezing.
Upper-level ridging will gradually build into the area through Wed w/ large scale subsidence greatly limiting rain chances. Warm and dry southwest flow aloft prevails, and with relatively warm temperatures aloft, and limited moisture, maximum temperatures will be warmer than normal with little or no chance of showers or thunderstorms. Isolated to scattered showers and weak thunderstorms are traversing the High Plains of Wyoming and Nebraska this afternoon from northwest to southeast.
Our southern terminals, and possibly as far north as KABI, will have a conditional possibility for MVFR ceilings with the low cloud development. Wind shear is low, however this high CAPE environment will result in very powerful updrafts. As the main upper trough axis shifts across the area later today, expect discrete storms to form at first and then evolve into an MCS this evening and overnight producing damaging winds.
827 PM EDT Sun Jun 23 2019 High pressure will push off the Mid Atlantic coast tonight.
1030 PM EDT Sun Jun 23 2019 High pressure will push off the Mid Atlantic coast tonight.
954 PM EDT Sun Jun 23 2019 High pressure will push off the Mid Atlantic coast tonight.
1046 PM EDT Sun Jun 23 2019 High pressure will extend from the Atlantic westward into the Gulf of Mexico through the middle of the week. North of this ridge troughing will linger in the forecast area. High pressure aloft builds over the Southeast U.
As of 3 PM CDT, temperatures across the Mid-South are in the lower 90s where rain free conditions are still occurring, and 70s where showers and thunderstorms have already occurred this afternoon. Hail is not as much of a concern as wind as freezing levels remain quite high.
It will remain warm and muggy, with temperatures falling into the low to mid 70s late.
Look for more morning low clouds and cooler temperatures as a result. Synoptically speaking high pressure over the region will slowly shift to the east over the next 24 to 48 hours as an upper level trough moves into the Pacific Northwest and digs toward California.
741 PM EDT Sun Jun 23 2019 Stacked ridging over the region to continue to suppress summertime convection while keeping the hot conditions in place this evening, tonight and through Monday.
Evening surface analysis shows outflow boundary has moved south of the Red River, with the cold front through north central Oklahoma.
800 PM EDT Sun Jun 23 2019 High pressure will extend from the Atlantic westward into the Gulf of Mexico through the middle of the week. North of this ridge troughing will linger in the forecast area. Temperatures tonight falling into the lower 70s. High pressure aloft builds over the Southeast U.
Upper trof axis this afternoon has advanced to the KS/CO border, while area of thunderstorms from yesterday has moved far south and east of the forecast area. Broken sunny spots have risen into middle upper 70s, while the remainder holds in the low to middle 70s. Convection noted firing up right along the east side of the trof axis, with short term guidance bringing this area westward and weakening later this evening over our forecast area. In the wake of the upper trough on Monday expect a dry period to ensue along with mostly clear skies. Highs on Monday should range from the upper 70s to the lower 80s with dew points mainly in the 50s will make for pleasant weather.
Near normal high temperatures Monday, then a warming trend and hotter temperatures this week as high pressure builds over the region.
632 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2019 An upper level low with -19C temperatures at h500mb will move over wrn and ncntl Nebraska early this evening. This middle-of-the-road approach is warmer than the straight guidance blend by a degree or two. The models continue to show an upper level ridge building into New and old Mexico this week supporting warm weather across wrn and ncntl Nebraska. At the same time, another deep upper level low will move toward and into the Pacific Northwest. The result will be a long wave trof through the desert Southwest.
516 PM MDT Sun Jun 23 2019 An upper low is crossing northeast Colorado into western Nebraska while northwest low level flow persists today across much the Dakotas. Weak ridging will take over late tonight and tomorrow morning behind the departing upper low, bringing a small break in the precipitation. Slightly warmer temps will work their way into the region, with highs 5-10 degrees warmer than today.
/issued 346 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2019/ Circulation around an upper-level wave over northeast Colorado is helping support thunderstorm development along a surface cold front this afternoon.
/issued 236 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2019/ Impressive upper level trough, currently over eastern CO, will swing through the CWA today. The associated Pacific cold front, that began its southward progression through the FA early this morning, has stalled across the southern Rolling Plains with the dryline just through the Rolling Plains. Zonal to northwest flow aloft will set up tomorrow as the upper trough pushes east. As with today, CAPE values will be robust however, Shear values will limited and convective temperatures will be harder to reach thanks to todays cold front.
As they near Middle TN, they will be passing through an instability axis that should top out around 3000 J/Kg due to environmental temps in the low 90s and dew points in the low 70s. Highs in the low 90s will return on a regular basis, fueling those afternoon/early evening thunderstorm chances each day this week. Another system may impact the area toward sunrise from west to east as the primary upper trough axis and front pushes through. Should be a nice afternoon on Monday as drier air moves in behind the trough axis.
353 PM MDT Sun Jun 23 2019 The back side of a low pressure system is spinning some clouds and light showers and a couple thunderstorms over northern portions of the forecast area this afternoon. Took a close look at low temperatures in the Gunnison area tonight but given expected clouds and recent moisture decided to keep lows above freezing.
520 PM EDT Sun Jun 23 2019 High pressure will build across the region tonight through Monday.
This wave lifts out around daybreak, although a few isolated showers may linger in it's wake this morning as sfc warm front continues lifting north through the area. Ensemble mean SBCapes are progged to be roughly 750-1000 J/KG late this afternoon which may be just enough the generate a few stronger storms since deep layer shear ramps up to near 40 kts as upr trough approaches later in the day. Limiting factor however is poor mid level lapse rates, which look better over WI under the upr trough. It's very possible we'll be spared from svr wx and locally heavy rain today, with events occuring to our southeast over Ohio (sfc cold front) and to the west over WI (upr trough).
309 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2019 Upper trof will continue to move east toward the Mississippi River valley today.
With all the clouds and rain around this morning, temperatures will be cooler today with highs in the mid 80s. By tonight, a cold front will have moved into the Mid-South then stall out close to the Tennessee/Mississippi border. Temperatures will be a little warmer than today with highs in the mid to upper 80s. With the cold front out of the region, the threat of thunderstorms will diminish over northern sections of the Mid-South.