Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
608 AM CDT WED SEP 9 2015 12Z TAF issuance Cold front slowly moving through the region this morning with light northeast winds behind it. /issued 442 AM CDT WED SEP 9 2015/ A weak cold front continues to move south towards the area and should be make its way through Midland during the morning hours. The highest chances for rain today look to be along the I-10 corridor and the Davis Mountains, but could still see some scattered thunderstorms over parts of Southeast New Mexico, Permian Basin and Trans Pecos.
A weak cold front will sag south into the Big Country this morning, and into our central counties by early afternoon. Weak cold frontal boundary extended from just south of Knox City to just south of Snyder, and was moving slowly to the southeast. We are carrying the highest PoPs across the east-central and southeast parts of our area. With increased cloud cover and prospects for precipitation, temperatures will be cooler today. (Thursday through Wednesday) Whatever is left of the weak cold front will sag into the I-10 corridor from Ozona to Junction for Thursday. Not much cooling with the front, with mainly increased cloud cover keeping temperatures down in the low 90s.
THE COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED TO OUR SOUTH NEAR I-20 WITH SLOWLY DECREASING NERLY WINDS ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. /ISSUED 421 AM CDT WED SEP 9 2015/ WEAK COLD FRONT TO OUR SOUTH WITH LIGHT UPSLOPE NORTHEAST BREEZES CONTRIBUTING TO AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS. SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE A BIT WARMER TODAY IS ACCEPTABLE. SLIGHTLY COOLER ALSO STILL BELIEVABLE FOR TONIGHT. RMCQUEEN THURSDAY WE WILL SEE A BRIEF WARMUP BEFORE OUR NEXT COLD FRONT.
717 AM EDT WED SEP 9 2015 AVIATION SKIES WILL CLEAR FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST TODAY AS A COLD FRONT CLEARS THE AREA. THAT WILL ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE AREA WHICH WILL BRING SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WITH MANY NORTHERN AREAS HAVING LOWS WELL DOWN INTO THE FORTIES.
907 AM EDT WED SEP 9 2015 MORNING WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY IS DEPICTING THE REMAINS OF THE UPPER LEVEL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GULF. AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS INTO FLORIDA AND THE EASTERN GULF FROM THE SOUTH. THIS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL SUPPLY INCREASED SUBSIDENCE. EXPECT THE HIGHEST STORM COVERAGE TO BE INLAND DURING THE MID AFTERNOON.
SHOWERS HAVE ALSO BEEN SLOW TO FORM BUT ACTIVITY OFF THE LOWER TEXAS CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHWARD. THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO INTO SOUTH TEXAS WILL GRADUALLY LOSE INFLUENCE OVER THE REGION THE NEXT TWO DAYS. THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN GULF EARLY THIS MORNING WILL DRIFT TO THE WEST TODAY. WHILE A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING TOWARD THE RED RIVER REGION THIS MORNING. WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AND MAINTAIN THE MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN GULF ON THURSDAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL TEXAS ON THURSDAY.
HOT TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WORK WEEK AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE REGION. SLIGHT COOLING IS POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST LATE IN THE WEEK WITH A GRADUAL COOLING TREND EXPECTED REGION-WIDE INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT HAS BROUGHT VERY WARM TO HOT CONDITIONS TO THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER MUCH OF THE WEST COAST THROUGH LATE WEEK.
1136 AM EDT WED SEP 9 2015 UPDATE/MARINE SKIES WILL CLEAR FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST TODAY AS A COLD FRONT CLEARS THE AREA. THAT WILL ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE AREA WHICH WILL BRING SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WITH MANY NORTHERN AREAS HAVING LOWS WELL DOWN INTO THE FORTIES.
RIDGING OVER CENTRAL AL BEHIND THIS LOW LEVEL DISTURBANCE.
705 AM EDT WED SEP 9 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TODAY AND WILL STALL ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
732 AM EDT WED SEP 9 2015 A COLD FRONT OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL PUSH SLOWLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM ALONG THE FRONT AND TRACK ACROSS THE DELMARVA PENINSULA THURSDAY. HIGHEST /LIKELY/ POPS ARE PAINTED ACROSS THE NW MTNS CLOSEST TO APPROACHING COLD FRONT. RAINFALL AND LOW LVL CAA NORTH OF FRONTAL BNDRY WILL YIELD A MUCH COOLER DAY THAN WE/VE BECOME USED TO.
1116 AM EDT WED SEP 9 2015 HYDRO SKIES WILL CLEAR FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST TODAY AS A COLD FRONT CLEARS THE AREA. THAT WILL ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE AREA WHICH WILL BRING SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WITH MANY NORTHERN AREAS HAVING LOWS WELL DOWN INTO THE FORTIES.
/ISSUED 421 AM CDT WED SEP 9 2015/ WEAK COLD FRONT TO OUR SOUTH WITH LIGHT UPSLOPE NORTHEAST BREEZES CONTRIBUTING TO AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS. SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE A BIT WARMER TODAY IS ACCEPTABLE. SLIGHTLY COOLER ALSO STILL BELIEVABLE FOR TONIGHT. RMCQUEEN THURSDAY WE WILL SEE A BRIEF WARMUP BEFORE OUR NEXT COLD FRONT.
1233 PM EDT WED SEP 9 2015 CLOUDY AND COOLER WEATHER WILL PERSIST INTO THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
1106 AM EDT WED SEP 9 2015 A COLD FRONT OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL PUSH SLOWLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM ALONG THE FRONT AND TRACK ACROSS THE DELMARVA PENINSULA THURSDAY. MAIN FOCUS WILL BE ON FRONTAL CONVECTION NOW FIRING ALONG AND EAST OF LAKE BREEZE AHEAD OF SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT. KEPT HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE NW MTNS CLOSEST TO APPROACHING COLD FRONT. RAINFALL AND LOW LVL CAA NORTH OF FRONTAL BNDRY WILL YIELD A MUCH COOLER DAY THAN WE/VE BECOME USED TO.
WE LEANED ON THE WARMER AND DRIER EDGE OF THE 00 UTC MODEL GUIDANCE SINCE WE EXPECT EFFICIENT BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING AND MEAN WESTERLY /DOWNSLOPE/ LOW-LEVEL FLOW. FORECAST HIGHS RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 70S F IN PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN MT TO THE LOWER 80S ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL MT AND NORTH CENTRAL WY. IT WILL BE COOLER OVER THE WHOLE AREA ON NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS.
820 AM EDT WED SEP 9 2015 SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TODAY AND THURSDAY WITH THE APPROACH AND SLOW PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.
1236 PM EDT WED SEP 9 2015 A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE REGION TODAY WHILE LOW PRESSURE TRACKS THROUGH QUEBEC.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY ACROSS THE REGION. HIGHS WILL BE 5-10 DEGREES WARMER TODAY AND A COUPLE MORE DEGREES WARMER ON THURSDAY.
721 AM CDT WED SEP 9 2015 UPPER TROUGH TO OUR WEST ALONG WITH SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SWING THIS WAY NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.
626 AM CDT WED SEP 9 2015 A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A LARGE RIDGE BUILDS IN OVER THE WEST COAST. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH THE REGION TODAY.
Vsbys and the lower cigs should improve by mid-morning with VFR conditions dominating throughout the day. The local area will reside between a long wave trough extending through the Lower Mississippi Valley and a ridge centered just east of the Florida peninsula.
A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS OVER THE REGION TODAY WITH A FLAT RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THIS RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO AMPLIFY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WHICH WILL SLIGHTLY INCREASE TEMPERATURES AND KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
645 AM CDT WED SEP 9 2015 SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH A COLD FRONT THAT WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE STATE TODAY AND THURSDAY.
RIDGING OVER CENTRAL AL BEHIND THIS LOW LEVEL DISTURBANCE. AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NW WILL RESULT IN SHOWER/TSTORM ACTIVITY OVERSPREADING THE AREA.
AS A RESULT, 15Z TEMPS RANGED FROM THE LOW-MID 80S IN AREAS SEEING MORE SUNSHINE TO MID-UPPER 70S OVER MUCH OF THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU. 82 IN PW NOTED ON 12Z OHX SOUNDING), DEVELOPING WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY, AND AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL PROVIDE INCREASING CONVECTIVE COVERAGE ACROSS THE REGION. WHILE SHOWERS/STORMS CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER ALSO SPREAD INTO THE AREA AS A UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT AS H5 TROUGH AXIS CONTINUES TO THE EAST. WITH ACTIVITY GRADUALLY SHIFTING SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE CWA FROM THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTHEASTWARD.
BUT BRIEF BREAKS MAY STILL ALLOW READINGS TO TOP OUT IN THE LOW 80S. HAVE A THETA-E RIDGE AXIS RUNNING FROM LOGAN COUNTY IN KENTUCKY TO JEFFERSON COUNTY IN INDIANA. WITH HIGHS MOST LOCATIONS ONLY IN THE LOWER 80S. THE UPPER TROUGH BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. HIGHS THURSDAY ALSO WILL BE COOLER. AROUND 80 TO THE LOWER 80S.
A DEEP LAYERED ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS.
702 AM EDT WED SEP 9 2015 A COLD FRONT OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL PUSH SLOWLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM ALONG THE FRONT AND TRACK ACROSS THE DELMARVA PENINSULA THURSDAY. HIGHEST /LIKELY/ POPS ARE PAINTED ACROSS THE NW MTNS CLOSEST TO APPROACHING COLD FRONT. RAINFALL AND LOW LVL CAA NORTH OF FRONTAL BNDRY WILL YIELD A MUCH COOLER DAY THAN WE/VE BECOME USED TO.
/ISSUED 327 AM CDT SUN AUG 9 2015/ OUR AREA WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MID LEVEL RIDGING CENTERED TO OUR SOUTH OVER TX. THOUGH CHANCES WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY SMALL THE FARTHER SOUTH YOU GO GIVEN OUR CLOSE PROXIMITY TO MID LEVEL RIDGE.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS RIDGE WILL SLOWLY START TO RETREAT TO THE WEST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH FLOW TRANSITIONING TO MORE NORTHWESTERLY OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY BY MONDAY MORNING. WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE AND LIGHT WINDS SOME LIGHT FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONGIHT. A WEAK WAVE WILL ROUND THE NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY, TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.
435 AM CDT SUN AUG 9 2015 THE RIDGE ALOFT REMAINS FIXED OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH A SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS.
327 AM CDT SUN AUG 9 2015 OUR AREA WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MID LEVEL RIDGING CENTERED TO OUR SOUTH OVER TX. THOUGH CHANCES WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY SMALL THE FARTHER SOUTH YOU GO GIVEN OUR CLOSE PROXIMITY TO MID LEVEL RIDGE.
FOR TODAY, THE OHIO VALLEY WILL SEE ONE MORE DAY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. WE'RE ON THE NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AXIS AND THIS RIDGE IS FORECAST TO RETROGRADE WESTWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD. WITHIN THIS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW, A SERIES OF MID-LEVEL WAVES ROTATING AROUND THE EDGE OF THE RIDGE WILL ROLL THROUGH THE REGION.
342 AM CDT SUN AUG 9 2015 TEMPS AT 3 AM WERE RANGING FROM THE MID 60S TO THE LOWER 70S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S. HOWEVER THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND EASTWARD TODAY AND MONDAY WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY ACROSS THE TN VALLEY.
250 AM MDT SUN AUG 9 2015 EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOWS 595 DM RIDGE ACROSS SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH PLUME OF PACIFIC MOISTURE STREAMING INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND ACROSS OUR CWA. STATIONARY/WARM FRONT IS CURRENTLY JUST OVER THE SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF OUR CWA. OVERALL SEVERE INDICES FAVOR DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WITH ON A SMALL THREAT FOR TORNADOS WITHIN PROXIMITY TO MAIN TROUGH AXIS. NAM SHOWS INCREASING FORCING BY LATE MORNING EARLY AFTERNOON AS A STRONGER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
THE STORMS CONTINUE ON THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET THOUGH. WITH A FLAT RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION. THE WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES IN CENTRAL MONTANA WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA TONIGHT.
Dry air remaining in the low levels will limit the precipitation efficiency of storms, thus little rainfall is anticipated but plentiful lightning and gusty outflow winds are certainly possible.
ANOTHER DAY WITH NOT MUCH CHANGE IN OVERALL PATTERN OF RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL STATES EXTENDING EAST INTO THE TN VALLEY.
EXPECT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TODAY TO BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY, OWING TO A WEAK RIDGE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION AND WEAKER MARINE INFLUENCE. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO UPPER 90S ACROSS THE VALLEY, WITH 70S AND 80S OVER THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND DOWNWARD THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS AN UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OFF THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST DROPS SOUTHWARD.
126 AM EDT SUN AUG 9 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON MONDAY DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER EARLY ON SUNDAY. THE MODELS SHOW A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE OHIO VALLEY MOVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS LOW WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE DAY MONDAY.
BROAD HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE SENSIBLE WEATHER ACROSS EASTERN KY THIS MORNING. THIS IS BEING BROUGHT ON BE LOW PRESSURE THAT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND MOVES EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. A WEAK ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION BRINGING A REASONABLE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. WE SEE HIGH TEMPS DROP OFF INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S ON MONDAY WITH CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP.
555 AM EDT SUN AUG 9 2015 SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA LATER TODAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES. PRECIP CHANCES LOCALLY APPEAR HIGHEST DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AS BETTER THETA-E RIDGE IS FINALLY ADVECTED INTO OUR AREA BY APPROACH OF MORE FORMIDABLE WAVE AND ASSOCIATED INCREASE IN LLJ. SHRTWV OVER MT EXPECTED TO TOP SRN PLAINS RIDGE AND DIG INTO THE WRN GRTLKS MONDAY AS RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS WEST TO THE ROCKIES AND STRENGTHENS. ANOTHER SHRTWV EXPECTED TO DROP SE ON THE BACKSIDE OF ERN CONUS AMPLIFYING TROF TUE BUT MOISTURE SHOULD BE LIMITED IN WAKE OF MONDAY'S SYSTEM.
316 AM EDT SUN AUG 9 2015 SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA LATER TODAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES. PRECIP CHANCES LOCALLY APPEAR HIGHEST DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AS BETTER THETA-E RIDGE IS FINALLY ADVECTED INTO OUR AREA BY APPROACH OF MORE FORMIDABLE WAVE AND ASSOCIATED INCREASE IN LLJ. SHRTWV OVER MT EXPECTED TO TOP SRN PLAINS RIDGE AND DIG INTO THE WRN GRTLKS MONDAY AS RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS WEST TO THE ROCKIES AND STRENGTHENS. ANOTHER SHRTWV EXPECTED TO DROP SE ON THE BACKSIDE OF ERN CONUS AMPLIFYING TROF TUE BUT MOISTURE SHOULD BE LIMITED IN WAKE OF MONDAY'S SYSTEM.
AND FINALLY HEADING SOUTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT AS IT ROUNDS THE RIDGE AND IS INTEGRATED INTO NORTHWEST FLOW. COOLER AIR FOLLOWS FOR MONDAY AM. HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE REST OF THE PERIOD. THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH A LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE AREA OVER THE SOUTHERN US WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NORTHWARD INTO CANADA AND A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA OFF THE WEST COAST. THIS HIGH PRESSURE AREA AND RIDGE WILL MOVE VERY LITTLE THROUGH THE WEEK WITH SOME BUILDING HEIGHTS/WARMER AIR PUSHING INTO OUR REGION. SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR/MOSTLY SUNNY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE MID 80S TO THE LOWER 90S. THE MODELS SHOW THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE AREA OFF THE WEST COAST LIFTING NORTHEAST.
WEAK RETURN FLOW SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME MOISTURE POOLING ALONG THE RIDGES. THIS WARM FRONT WILL ROLL THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY. FRIES BEGIN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IN THE WARM SECTOR AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA AND THE COLD FRONT STILL BACK IN WESTERN OHIO.
AND WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 90S. WILL PLAN ON ISSUING A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR PATCHY DENSE FOG EARLY THIS MORNING THE 00Z MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY. THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ON THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION LATER MONDAY. ALTHOUGH THE COLD FRONTAL WIND SHIFT WILL PASS THROUGH THE ENTIRE REGION DURING THE DAY.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT BUILDING STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE WEST EARLY IN THE WEEK WITH THE RIDGE AXIS SLOWLY MOVING EAST.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN LAKES WILL MOVE EAST TODAY.
A FEW DEGS WARMER TODAY AS HEIGHTS BUILD FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND FLOW ALOFT BACKS TO MORE SOUTHERLY DUE TO AN UPPER LOW DEEPENING OFF THE NW COAST. FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BACK TO MORE SOUTHERLY TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW OFF THE NW COAST CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AND MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH. MODELS SHOW A SUBTLE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO OUR CWA MONDAY FROM THE SOUTH FOR A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAN TODAY.
303 AM CDT SUN AUG 9 2015 PERSISTENCE IS THE KEY WORD THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE ITS GRIP ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. GOOD MIXING WILL OCCUR TODAY WITH DEWPOINTS DROPPING TO THE LOW/MID 60S WEST OF I-69C AND LOW TO MID 70S EAST OF HWY 77. UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE RETROGRADING WEST AND NORTHWEST THROUGH THE WEEK WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH DIGS SOUTH OUT OF ONTARIO INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND.
301 AM EDT SUN AUG 9 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL OFFSHORE OF NEW ENGLAND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE ON MONDAY AS A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
/issued 404 AM CDT SUN AUG 9 2015/ A few showers and thunderstorms continue across the western half of the Permian Basin and parts of the higher terrain this morning. The large upper ridge has wobbled east and is now centered over the Houston area.
404 AM CDT SUN AUG 9 2015 A few showers and thunderstorms continue across the western half of the Permian Basin and parts of the higher terrain this morning. The large upper ridge has wobbled east and is now centered over the Houston area.
TEMPERATURES PROBABLY ALREADY NEAR THEIR MINIMUM IN THE LOW 80S.
621 AM EDT SUN AUG 9 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM NEW YORK INTO NEW ENGLAND TODAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUING.
453 AM CDT SUN AUG 9 2015 A MOIST SUB-TROPICAL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS ACROSS THE PANHANDLES ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER HIGH OVER EAST TEXAS. A WEAK COLD FRONT LOCATED NEAR THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE THIS MORNING WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTH INTO THE OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLES TODAY BEFORE BECOMING STATIONARY ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE BY TONIGHT AND MONDAY.
A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT MOVES IN AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SETTLES BACK INTO THE AREA.
AN UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE CALIFORNIA COASTLINE EARLY THIS MORNING.
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSES MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
WEAK RETURN FLOW SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME MOISTUREPOOLING ALONG THE RIDGES. THIS WARM FRONT WILL ROLL THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY. LEADING TO LIKELY POPS LATER MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO CROSS THE REGION.
404 AM EDT SUN AUG 9 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TODAY.
300 AM EDT SUN AUG 9 2015 HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE FORECAST AREA WILL WEAKEN THROUGH MONDAY.
/ISSUED 903 PM CDT SAT AUG 8 2015/ SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOWER 70S TO MID 80S. /ISSUED 620 PM CDT SAT AUG 8 2015/ HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE HIGHEST HEAT INDICES SOUTHWEST OF MEMPHIS WHERE THERE IS A HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT. THE UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER TEXAS WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND NORTHEASTWARD INTO SUNDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES WILL EXPAND NORTH AND STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE INTERIOR WEST EARLY THIS WEEK.
343 AM EDT SUN AUG 9 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM NEW YORK INTO NEW ENGLAND TODAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUING.
450 AM EDT SUN AUG 9 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL OFFSHORE OF NEW ENGLAND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE ON MONDAY AS A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
310 AM EDT SUN AUG 9 2015 BROAD HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE SENSIBLE WEATHER ACROSS EASTERN KY THIS MORNING. THIS IS BEING BROUGHT ON BE LOW PRESSURE THAT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND MOVES EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. A WEAK ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION BRINGING A REASONABLE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. WE SEE HIGH TEMPS DROP OFF INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S ON MONDAY WITH CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP.
THOSE IN THE I-90 CORRIDOR AND NORTH WHO WERE HOPING FOR SOAKING RAINS MIGHT BE DISAPPOINTED AS THE HIGHER CHANCES WILL HOLD SOUTH OF THERE THROUGH MONDAY. MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AMPLIFYING AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE HEART OF THE U. OR THE RIDGE WILL REESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE WEST COAST. BUT THEN THE GFS/EC DROP A BIT OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY OVER THE RIDGE AND ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THU AFTERNOON/NIGHT. WHILE THE RIDGE AXIS STAYS TO THE WEST. MODELS ARE STARTING TO SUGGEST THAT SOME OF THAT WARMER AIR WILL WORK ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AND STORMS WELL SOUTH OF US 18 IN NORTHEAST IOWA OVERNIGHT.
312 AM CDT SUN AUG 9 2015 UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE WEST OF THE REGION ON MONDAY AS LONG WAVE TROUGHS INTENSIFY ALONG BOTH COASTS. A WEAK COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL MOVE SOUTH AS THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE NORTHWESTERLY AND SLIP ACROSS THE RED RIVER AROUND MIDNIGHT MONDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER ACROSS NW PORTIONS OF THE FA WHERE PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO THE AREA FIRST. A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE REGION EARLY MONDAY MORNING AND MOVE THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP FROM EASTERN CANADA TO THE US ATLANTIC SEABOARD EARLY IN THE PERIOD. THE SOUTHERN PART OF THIS TROUGH WILL WEAKEN AND BECOME LESS DEFINED WITH TIME WHILE THE NORTHERN PART WILL BE REINFORCED BY ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE ENERGY DROPPING INTO THE MEAN TROUGH.
610 AM EDT SUN AUG 9 2015 HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE FORECAST AREA WILL WEAKEN THROUGH MONDAY.
ANOTHER STORMY DAY ACROSS THE NORTHLAND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT LEADING TO SOME CLEARING SKIES IN FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA. A TRAILING COLD FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL MN AND NRN WI WILL ALLOW A FEW SHOWERS AND WEAK STORMS TO LINGER ACROSS THE SRN AND SERN PORTIONS OF THE NORTHLAND SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN FROM THE NW EARLY MONDAY PRIOR TO THE PASSAGE OF AN UPPER S/W OVER WRN ONTARIO. AS THIS WAVE BRUSHES THE ARROWHEAD MON AFTERNOON THE COOL AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW. WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING IN THE EVENING AS THE DAYTIME HEATING IS LOST AND HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST.
DRIER MID LEVEL AIRMASS HAS OVERSPREAD THE AREA BEHIND DEPARTING TROUGH ALOFT. MAX TEMPS WILL REACH THE LOWER 90S. BLO CLIMO PRECIP COVERAGE TO START THE WORK WEEK AS A LARGE HI PRES RIDGE CENTERED NEAR THE ARKLATEX GENERATES A DEEP N/NERLY FLOW REGIME OVER THE FL PENINSULA. A MID LVL THERMAL RIDGE ALREADY BLANKETS MUCH OF THE DEEP SOUTH WITH H70 TEMPS BTWN 9-10C AND H50 TEMPS BTWN -4/-5C. STRONG MID LVL RIDGING PATTERN WILL PREVAIL OVER THE HIGH PLAINS/ERN ROCKIES THRU THE UPCOMING WEEK. PERSISTENT TROFFING PATTERN OVER THE ERN CONUS WILL RESULT THAT WILL KEEP THE ATLC RIDGE AXIS SUPPRESSED OVER S FL AND THE FL STRAITS. PERSISTENT TROFFING PATTERN OVER THE ERN CONUS WILL MAINTAIN A LIGHT TO GENTLE SRLY BREEZE THRU THRU MIDWEEK.
THERE CONTINUES TO BE A DRY LAYER IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS BUT THIS HAS ERODED SOME FROM THIS MORNING. IN ADDITION THERE IS A WEAK TROUGH EXTENDING INTO THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS ISLANDS. THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SINK INTO SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA WITH DEEP MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA AND ADJACENT GULF AND ATLANTIC WATERS WITH WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS IN THESE AREAS SHOWN IN THE MORE RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY. A WEAK LOW LEVEL TROUGH WILL BUILD INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND WESTERN BAHAMAS SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
THE COMBINATION OF WEAK SYNOPTIC TROUGH. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS SHOULD END MONDAY NIGHT WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AS THE UPPER TROF AMPLIFIES OVER THE AREA.