Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
These mid-level clouds will continue to lower through the overnight hours, as an area of low pressure approaches from the middle Texas coast Friday morning. Wind speeds will increase to 7-11 kts through the afternoon as this area of low pressure moves across SE TX.
622 PM EST Thu Jan 18 2018 High pressure centered south of the region will extend up the western side of the Appalachians through the end of the week.
510 PM CST Thu Jan 18 2018 Updated aviation section for 00z taf issuance The warming trend is underway with high pressure off to our south and east.
425 PM MST Thu Jan 18 2018 Water vapor shows large trof just off the west coast with upper ridge axis extending through the Central Rockies through the Northern Plains. Broad surface trof over our region resulting in W/SW downslope flow with early afternoon temps in the 40s and 50s. Temps may be a couple degrees cooler on Friday with thermal ridge shifting to our east.
While can't rule out a few of the coldest spots over the NW interior touching freezing, a widespread or prolonged freeze looks unlikely. /issued 338 PM EST Thu Jan 18 2018/ Temperatures warmed up into the low 60s this afternoon for most of the east coast metro area. Tonight, good radiational cooling and lighter winds will allow for significant cooling, although the lows tonight won't be quite as cold as last night.
630 PM EST Thu Jan 18 2018 High pressure settles across the deep south through the weekend.
947 PM EST Thu Jan 18 2018 High pressure located at the surface across the region. Cooler temperatures may persist across the northern half of the forecast area where snow cover remains with temperatures near or slightly below MAV MOS guidance. Chattanooga Airport, TN 18 50 27 53 / 0 0 0 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 15 46 24 50 / 0 0 0 10 Oak Ridge, TN 15 46 25 49 / 0 0 0 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 13 44 21 48 / 0 0 0 10.
1057 PM EST Thu Jan 18 2018 A large are of high pressure centered over the Lower Mississippi Valley will maintain fair skies for the next few days.
646 PM EST Thu Jan 18 2018 High pressure will build across the region through Friday night.
729 PM EST Thu Jan 18 2018 High pressure will build in from the west tonight through the weekend.
854 PM CST Thu Jan 18 2018 Very quiet weather throughout the Tennessee Valley tonight as high pressure has established itself at the surface and aloft. This added moisture will help keep lows anywhere from 5-10 degrees warmer than last night, despite the good radiational cooling that has taken place this evening. Given the higher RH values around daybreak, we'll need to watch for the possibility of some patchy freezing fog, mainly around area lakes and river in the usual fog prone areas.
605 PM CST Thu Jan 18 2018 Southwest winds will continue across the area tonight and tomorrow as high pressure sits across the southeastern US and a mid level ridge begins to build across the eastern half of the US. This will bring much warmer air into the area and should see temps above freezing tomorrow across the whole CWA. Temps will fall below freezing overnight again, but near to the level they have been the past week or so. Again, much warmer tomorrow with many areas getting into the 40s. Ridge will continue to build across the area with continued southwest flow on the sfc. This warmer air will melt a lot of the snow into Friday night and as an inversion begins to setup, some fog will be possible late Friday night and early Sat morning.
958 PM EST Thu Jan 18 2018 A large are of high pressure centered over the Lower Mississippi Valley will maintain fair skies for the next few days.
921 PM CST Thu Jan 18 2018 Updated for stratus and slightly warmer overnight lows, along and east of a San Angelo to Sonora line. Otherwise south winds may gust over 20 KTS at KABI and KSJT by noon Friday as lee trough develops.
932 PM EST Thu Jan 18 2018 High pressure will build across the region through Friday night.
High pressure to our south and a dry atmosphere will keep our skies clear tonight and Friday. Lows tonight will still manage to drop down into the teens over the snow cover, but tomorrow we should be able to rebound to the lower 40s on SSW breezes. Low clouds swelling from the western Gulf into south Texas today will eventually make it into central Kentucky and far southern Indiana Friday night as the high to our south budges a bit to the east.
1027 PM EST Thu Jan 18 2018 High pressure will build in from the west tonight through the weekend.
/issued 128 PM CST Thu Jan 18 2018/ A weak upper level low pressure area in the Rio Grande River Valley will continue to move east tonight and be replaced by an upper level ridge of high pressure on Friday. More fair skies and moderating temperatures will continue Friday underneath the ridge.
527 PM CST Thu Jan 18 2018 The latest water vapor images showed a ridge over the central CONUS with an upper low off the BC Coast. This ridge will flatten and translate east through Friday as a trough approaches the West Coast. The result is that mild and dry conditions are expected to continue tonight through Friday as 850-mb temperatures run well above average under the influence of the upper ridge.
At the surface, high pressure is centered over southern LA/MS with lee troughing over eastern CO/NM. This wave is expected to move out across the high Plains Sun morning and into eastern Nebraska by Sun evening. While a brief period of rain/snow mix can't be ruled out, lack of an elevated warm layer should limit sleet or freezing rain accumulation for areas that do see some precip. Patchy dense cirrostratus spilling over the ridge aloft will affect the area tonight.
505 PM CST Thu Jan 18 2018 Quiet weather continues in the short term as a ridge across the Rockies flattens into a zonal pattern tomorrow. A fairly dense cirrus shield has topped the ridge overspread the forecast area this afternoon so skies will be mostly to partly cloudy tonight with lows in the lower to mid 20s.
930 PM EST Thu Jan 18 2018 High pressure will gradually build into the Carolinas through the weekend, bringing a warming trend and dry weather.
413 PM CST Thu Jan 18 2018 Clouds invading from the west will help to hold overnight temperatures up from the past several nights as an upper level low brings in mid-level moisture. But this will still be about 10 degrees warmer than the last few nights. The warmup will continue into Friday as high pressure slides off to the east and return flow spills in from the gulf.
Otherwise south winds may gust over 20 KTS at KABI and KSJT by noon Friday as lee trough develops.
The warmer temperatures we saw today are just a precursor of what is to come through the upcoming weekend.
724 PM EST Thu Jan 18 2018 A large are of high pressure centered over the Lower Mississippi Valley will maintain fair skies for the next few days.
, the Chickasha Mesonet was 7 F warmer at 30 ft than 5 ft at 7:50 PM this evening).
However, as mentioned above, the lowest layers have seen a marked modification since that launch inasmuch as moisture is concerned.
543 PM CST Thu Jan 18 2018 Despite the warmer southerly winds returning to the region, clear skies will allow temps to drop back below freezing, into the 20s tonight. On Friday, upper level trof moves off to the east and will see warmer temps aloft move in and mix down, so south to southwest surface winds to pickup a bit under sunny skies and allow temps to rise into the mid 40s to low 50s, about 10 to 15 degrees above normal. Byrd Warmer weather to persist through the weekend due to the south to southwest winds.
/issued 338 PM EST Thu Jan 18 2018/ Temperatures warmed up into the low 60s this afternoon for most of the east coast metro area. Tonight, good radiational cooling and lighter winds will allow for significant cooling, although the lows tonight won't be quite as cold as last night.
/issued 325 PM CST Thu Jan 18 2018/ Mid level trough with some indications of a closed contour across the Davis Mtns will drift eastward through the end of the work week. In turn, this will result in a return of modest ridging influence into Friday. This trough will bring increasing southwesterly flow into the region this weekend.
Near zonal sfc pressure gradient, draped acrs the mid CONUS between GRT LKS clipper and southern ridge, still driving temp moderating southwest LLVL flow acrs the area.
505 PM EST Thu Jan 18 2018 A large are of high pressure centered over the Lower Mississippi Valley will maintain fair skies for the next few days.
Tomorrow the trough will be slowly digging along the Left Coast as another core of stronger winds aloft drops in upstream. This presents another a prolonged opportunity for moisture to be transported into the trough.
Models soundings indicate deeper moisture through the atmosphere, which should limit the potential for much freezing drizzle. Energy still moves through rather quickly, so accumulations are expected to be less than an inch, with the highest totals across northeast and east- central Wisconsin. A brief period of freezing drizzle is still possible as the precipitation comes to an end and some of the mid- level moisture dries out. While CAA is in place Monday, high temperatures are expected to be a few degrees warmer than today due to the warmer start.
Model soundings indicating drier air will spread across western Kansas tonight as an area of high pressure at the surface crosses western Kansas. Based on these expected conditions the previous forecast still looks on track with lows in the low to mid 20s. NAM,GFS, and ECMWF indicates a mixing depth of anywhere from the 880mb to 850mb level and given the forecast temperatures at this levels at 00z Tuesday will favor the warmer guidance for highs, especially west of Dodge City. A few locations could see highs in the lower 60s in far western Kansas and along the Oklahoma border.
Temperatures have cooled into the middle 30s in areas where wet- bulb cooling has occurred, but confident at this time that above freezing temperatures through the night will keep all precipitation in the form of rain. Overnight lows will not be much cooler with rainfall continuing to overspread the region, driving up dew points to near 40 by sunrise.
Lowland snow accumulations are not expected through mid week with temperatures in the low to mid 30s.
357 AM CST Mon Jan 8 2018 Very few changes in the short term as temperatures begin to rise above freezing for most areas of southern Minnesota, and into west central Wisconsin this afternoon. The warmest temperatures will occur along and east of the Buffalo Ridge due to lack of snow cover and a downslope component enhancing the warmer temperatures. Slightly cooler air filtering southward across east central Minnesota and into west central Wisconsin tonight will allow temperatures to fall into the teens, with a few single digits in the typical drainage areas of west central Wisconsin.
Could also see some freezing drizzle due to mid level dry air on the back side, but not too confident of that and impacts should be minimal. Behind the cold front, NW winds pick up so blowing snow is expect along and near the shores, especially where there is shoreline ice.
331 AM EST Mon Jan 8 2018 Low pressure will return wintry precipitation to the area today.
324 AM EST Mon Jan 8 2018 Upper level trough/embedded upper wave/PV tracking through the Western Great Lakes early this morning, which has helped cool the warm layer (+1 at 850 mb per 00z DTX sounding) which was around yesterday evening, and precip type should be all snow as precip rates have ramped up as well. Fortunately, surface temps have rebounded nicely (around 30 degrees) with the strong southwest flow, and should be at or above freezing toward/by 8 AM, and into the mid 30s for the late morning commute. Amplified upper level ridge axis to build in on Tuesday, with warm front lifting north through western Great Lakes, should at least result in mid clouds spilling over into southeast Michigan.
253 AM MST Mon Jan 8 2018 Water vapor shows large amplitude ridge over the western CONUS with strong trof digging over the eastern Pacific. At the surface, lee trof is advancing through ern WY. Upper ridge will dominate today and Tuesday with highs in the 40s/50s both days, about 15-20F above average, and dry conditions.
Ridging will generally dominate the weather through Tuesday afternoon. Tuesday afternoon some initial energy ahead of the next trough starts to work into the area.
Water vapor imagery shows an upper level low over west-central MB this afternoon. Still believe patchy freezing drizzle is possible from Hallock to Baudette/Bemidji this afternoon.
Compared to its predecessor cold fronts over the prior two weeks, this one is considerably weaker. A high pressure ridge will move over the area by late evening. Synoptically with only weak dry advection and this ridge moving over allowing for radiational cooling over snow cover, it would seem like a decent patchy fog setup. The 925mb temperatures would support warming 4-8 degrees above freezing or so. Haven't seen any reports of FZDZ in the wake of the organized precipitation and forecast model guidance certainly doesn't scream FZDZ potential, but given the lower VSBYs upstream cannot completely rule it out overnight.
303 AM EST Mon Jan 8 2018 There will be increased moisture and a moderation in temperature associated with an onshore flow between the ridge shifting off the East Coast and low pressure moving from the Lower Mississippi River Valley into the northeast Gulf of Mexico through Tuesday. A positively tilted upper trough will dig into the Mississippi Valley region. Upper trough will dig from the Mississippi Valley region today into the Central Gulf Coast this evening. Temperatures tonight finally set to remain at or above freezing for entire cwa. Upper flow begins to flatten out across the cwa as the main upper low cuts off and moves into the northern Gulf of Mexico through the night. Tuesday and Tuesday night, best chance for rainfall will be across the extreme southern cwa, closer to the upper low moving through Florida.
320 AM CST Mon Jan 8 2018 GOES-16 WV imagery shows the upper trough axis southeast of the forecast area with subsident and northwest flow regime overhead. Some high thin cloud is beginning to work into the area with spill over rounding the western CONUS ridge that has translated into Four Corners region. Points east near the KS/MO border likely see a bit cooler highs around 50. Monday night, winds increase and become breezy out of the south as upper flow transitions to a zonal regime and the lee trough becomes activated.
329 AM CST Mon Jan 8 2018 As the upper trough that affected western Nebraska yesterday an upper ridge builds in from the west. Mostly sunny today with high temperatures in the 40s and 50s, cooler over snow fields in the eastern Nebraska Panhandle, western Cherry and Grant, Arthur, Keith, Perkins, Hayes, Frontier and Lincoln counties.
/issued 251 PM CST Sun Jan 7 2018/ As of 3pm, the cold front has pushed south of the CWA and breezy north winds have fallen below advisory criteria.
High pressure will shift east of the area by tomorrow morning.
1038 PM MST Sun Jan 7 2018 A rather dry high pressure ridge will be over western and central Wyoming tonight and Monday with increasing west to southwest flow over the mountains as the ridge axis shifts into central Wyoming.
With the trough and associated veering winds bringing in drier air into our western counties at this time, which will continue to advance southeast, there is some question as to the extent and timing of possible dense fog. At 3 PM CST, light rain, freezing rain and some sleet and snow in SE sections is moving slowly east. Area temperatures are in the upper 20s north to the lower to middle 30s south. Precipitation should move east of the region by mid to late evening with cooler temperatures moving in later tonight with clearing skies.
1200 AM EST Mon Jan 8 2018 High pressure will remain to our south tonight. Low pressure tracking to our northwest will pull an occluded front across the area Monday.
338 AM EST Mon Jan 8 2018 A cold front will move through the area today.
435 AM EST Mon Jan 8 2018 Snow and light freezing rain will transition to some drizzle and freezing drizzle this morning.
1132 PM CST Sun Jan 7 2018 Upper trough currently spinning across NE TX attm with widespread showers and isolated thunderstorms ongoing across NE TX into SW AR and NW LA. Something of interest is that behind the concentration of precipitation and just ahead of the cold front which still resides to the north and west of our western most terminal locations, some patchy dense fog has formed so have added this possibility in the wake of the precipitation and ahead of the cold front. This patchy dense fog window will be short-lived until the cold front mixes it all out. /issued 1002 PM CST Sun Jan 7 2018/ Cold front is knocking on our back door this evening as it nears our western CWA in southeast Oklahoma and northeast Texas.
Positively tilted trough is moving southeast across the Panhandles this afternoon, with rain showers exiting out of the region in the next hour or two. A strong cold front that passed through earlier has brought strong northerly winds around 20 to 30 MPH with higher gusts, with pressure gradients and wind speeds expected to decrease afternoon sunset this evening. A longwave upper level ridge is progressing east across the western United States and should be over the Panhandles Monday and Tuesday. Highs on Monday will be in the lower to mid 60s across the area, and will be even warmer on Tuesday as highs reach into the lower to mid 70s.
213 AM CST Mon Jan 8 2018 An upper level ridge of high pressure will move across the Panhandles today, so high temperatures are expected to be warmer than yesterday. The ridge flattens some on Tuesday and heights start to lower over the southern Rockies ahead of the next storm system. This will encourage a lee-side trough to strengthen, so this will bring southwest downslope winds across the Panhandles.
Isentropic ascent at various levels will result in the highest PoPs along and west of the Apalachicola river beginning Monday morning and mostly wrapping up by Monday night. Subsidence aloft on the backside of the closed low in the Gulf will drastically reduce PoPs on Tuesday. However, a slight chance remains advertised in the Suwannee Valley due to the presence of an inverted east coast trough. Highs and lows will be much warmer than recent days with 60s being common and possibly even some 70s on Tuesday.
A cold front that extended southeast of a Wichita, KS to Frederick, OK to Midland line at 3 PM will move into the Bowie to Cisco areas before sunset.
A warm front will move across the area late tonight into Monday. Other changes with this early evening update are to increase southerly winds over the north-south oriented valleys of southwest MT due to deepening lee troughing along the immediate Rocky Mountain front. CC A weak upper level ridge of high pressure will reside over the region through Monday.
Pre-frontal trough and convection have cleared east of the area into Southeast Texas. All model guidance continues to trend further east with any showers and isolated thunderstorms that develop later this evening most likely after 8-9 pm after the cold front passes through the I-35 corridor.
449 AM EST Mon Jan 8 2018 WV imagery and RAP analysis indicated a mid/upper level trough from ne Manitoba into the wrn Great Lakes.
Have included the patch fog and drizzle in the appropriate areas through 06z, but still expect improving conditions overnight as drier air continues to spread southeast behind the cold front. /issued 327 PM CST Sun Jan 7 2018/ A cold front will continue its advance to the southeast this evening, leaving our forecast area late this evening.
1205 AM EST Mon Jan 8 2018 Low pressure will return wintry precipitation to the area Monday.
SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday): A cold frontal boundary and parent short wave were moving into the region from the north. As afternoon highs climb into the 70s and dew points drop into the 30s, expected RH values between 20-30 percent with the lower values in the northern Ranchlands. The ridge that has been sitting across the Baja will slowly begin to migrate eastward toward our general area. High pressure will be in control of our sensible weather throughout the remainder of the short term period with dry conditions expected.
1140 PM CST Sun Jan 7 2018 Water vapor imagery this afternoon capturing a mid-level closed low along the Manitoba/Saskatchewan border with a trough extending southward into the eastern Dakotas. Meanwhile, another trough was pushing east across the central Plains. Will have to watch this trough as it swings through this evening. A couple caveats though, with a small chance of some very light patchy freezing drizzle for portions of southwest/central WI. Another caveat is HRRR showing the possibility of some light snow right along the trough axis as it moves through. Clearing skies expected for later tonight after midnight as the trough exits east. Monday appears mostly sunny as a ridge of high pressure builds in from the west.
324 AM EST Mon Jan 8 2018 As high pressure moves east today and temperatures are expected to warm. A trough moving through today will produce some light snow showers mainly for northern areas. Temperatures may warm above freezing on Tuesday before a cold front on brings a return to cold temperatures briefly.
Sub-freezing surface areas continue to cause icy surfaces on sidewalks, roads, and bridges, despite the above-freezing air temperatures.
Although freezing rain amounts are expected to be very light, confidence is high enough to include in at all terminals. Then expect MVFR to persist through the end of the pd as freezing rain transitions to light rain/fog by afternoon at all terminals.
341 AM CST Mon Jan 8 2018 A potent trough continues to move east toward the Lower Mississippi Valley early this morning. Strong forcing for ascent downstream from this trough and attendant isentropic ascent/warm advection are resulting in widespread rain showers across the Mid- South at this time.
A weak lee trough on the eastern plains should also cause winds to become gusty in spots east of the central mountain chain Monday afternoon. Northwest winds will continue tapering off through sunset as a low pressure system departs New Mexico to the east. High pressure will build over the area Monday and Tuesday and bring well above normal temperatures.
625 AM EDT Thu Jun 1 2017 High pressure will move across our area today and tonight causing fair weather with seasonable temperatures.
417 AM CDT Thu Jun 1 2017 Ridging aloft will continue through today but the upper ridge will get suppressed on Thursday as a front pushes into the TN valley.
210 AM EDT Thu Jun 1 2017 Cold front overnight. High pressure Thursday and Friday.
Gusty winds up to about 45 mph will continue to be the main threat, especially as the storms move into the lower elevations late this afternoon and evening. More stable air moving in from the west, in response to a weak trough passing through the state, should lead to generally decreasing storm coverage by late Thursday afternoon or early evening. Expect pleasant weather over the weekend as high pressure moves through the region.
147 AM EDT Thu Jun 1 2017 Low pressure across Canada will cause a cold front to cross the area late tonight. A weak area of high pressure will be across the area late Thursday.
Ridge aloft will bring mostly dry conditions to the region through Thursday. MLcin values do drop to low levels during max heating, and with some sort of warm front in the east, and cold front out west, at least a few storms should fire up over the area. As for temperatures, recent dry conditions over the region suggest going at least as warm as guidance, if not a couple degrees warmer for highs. Friday looks especially warm given progged H85 thermal ridge pushing 20-25C air over the Missouri River valley by afternoon.
Guidance a little slower and still unresolved as to when a surface cool front and upper level trough will move through allowing for drier conditions to prevail.
Afternoon high temperatures will generally range from the low to mid 80s across northwest sections to the lower 90s across the southeast big bend.