Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1217 PM CDT Sat May 14 2022 High temperatures are expected to average 5 to 10 degrees above normal through the period, which translates into highs for most locations from the upper 70s to the lower 80s. We'll see a weak vort max and upper trough move across our forecast area Sunday morning bringing the possibility of strong to severe thunderstorms, primarily across eastern zones.
A cold front is poised to move into the moist and unstable airmass in place across the region Sunday afternoon. This cold front will be further enhanced by a decaying MCS as it approaches from the north.
238 PM CDT Sat May 14 2022 A beautiful day was felt throughout the area today, as high pressure overhead gave us clear skies and light winds. High pressure slowly slides off to our east, as a weak wave approaches the area. There are some slight chances along the approaching cold front early this evening in our northwest. It will feel much cooler than it has been lately, with most sitting in the upper 60s to low 70s.
1231 PM CDT Sat May 14 2022 A cold front currently draped over central South Dakota will push into the forecast area this morning, turning the winds to out of the northwest. Soundings show dry low levels Saturday evening so do think that it will take some time to saturate the low levels before rain reaches the surface. Locations south of I-90 have the highest chance for seeing accumulating rain as a mid level wave will provide lift via positive vorticity advection in this area.
312 PM EDT Sat May 14 2022 Low pressure moves up from the southeast today with afternoon and evening storms.
A cold front currently stretching from ern MN swwd into NE will gradually move across srn WI tnt. The low levels will remain fairly dry, but with mid level moisture and possibly a little instability present. Cold advection will bring cooler temps for late tnt-Sun but still relatively mild. A lobe of vorticity rotating around the upper low over Saskatchewan will help to push a cold front down through WI from late this afternoon through Sunday morning. Sunday temperatures should be around 10 degrees cooler than Saturday with a steady westerly breeze and more cloud cover by afternoon.
219 PM MDT Sat May 14 2022 An upper ridge will move in Sunday from the west allowing for a mainly sunny and slightly warmer day.
913 AM PDT Sat May 14 2022 Ridging aloft will lead to very warm conditions today before onshore winds return for the second half of the weekend, allowing for cooling to spread inland through the mountains on Sunday.
Later tonight high pressure will be building over the area. Before the cold front in the warm sector ahead of the front, it's anticipated to be a much warmer day with more widespread 60s to middle 70s. High clouds ahead of the front will stunt warmer temperatures near the Cascades but closer to Spokane, we may see the first 70 degree day of the year. Sunday afternoon's cold front will drive potentially strong thunderstorms into the evening hours.
759 PM EDT Sat May 14 2022 Aviation - Storms end early this evening The primary cold front is moving through Southwest Michigan as I write this. - Second cold front brings showers later Sunday The real cold front (actually brings colder air) comes through Sunday evening.
Otherwise, mainly light winds as an upper level ridge continues to build over the area. A backdoor cold front will push into northeast NM shortly after sunrise and will continue to push through the plains through the afternoon Sunday. A cold front moving in from southeast Colorado will lead to cooler temperatures and breezy to windy north winds for eastern New Mexico Sunday night.
Temperatures will trend cooler on Sunday along with breezy onshore winds. Summerlike conditions will then persist through much of the upcoming week with seasonably warm temperatures inland while conditions remain cooler, more cloudy near the coast. Onshore flow will increase during the next 24 hours as the mid/upper level ridge responsible for our current inland warmth shifts inland ahead of a mid/upper level trough approaching the Pacific Northwest. Models project most sites clearing 16Z-18Z, but clouds may linger along the coast and around southern Monterey Bay through the afternoon VFR conditions Sunday afternoon with some gustier winds as a trough approaches the Pacific NW. KSFO Bridge Approach.
The night will remain as such with high pressure in control of the weather pattern.
There will be little change in the synoptic environment tomorrow, as light northwest flow aloft will persist across the region, with a broad mid-level trough positioned from the northern Mid-Atlantic states southward into the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Temperatures will be a few degrees warmer tomorrow afternoon, potentially approaching 90F for many locations west of I-65, and this would result in greater MLCAPE, but at this point we still anticipate storm threats to be similar to those from today.
/issued 310 PM CDT Sat May 14 2022/ Much of the Mid-South is experiencing a much cooler day than the last several days.
High pressure begins to build in late tonight and will be over the area into Sunday.
320 PM MDT Sat May 14 2022 Upper ridging will be amplifying along the Rockies over the next 24 hours as stronger northern stream energy begins to stack up in the high latitudes. There appears to be a branch of stronger winds moving across late tomorrow as the ridge begins to be forced out by the arrival of a southern stream system.
This will be followed by dry and cooler conditions this upcoming week.
825 PM EDT Sat May 14 2022 A weakening area of low pressure will lift off to the northeast through tonight leaving more typical summer-like weather across the Carolinas with much warmer temperatures and localized shower or thunderstorm activity.
720 PM EDT Sat May 14 2022 Mesoscale Discussion Scattered tstms have recently reformed and intensified along US-127 where SPC mesoscale analysis shows narrow ribbon of strong low level moisture convergence and 1000 J/KG capes along stalled sfc front/trough. - Storms end early this evening The primary cold front is moving through Southwest Michigan as I write this. - Second cold front brings showers later Sunday The real cold front (actually brings colder air) comes through Sunday evening.
A cold front currently stretching from far se MN swwd into sw IA will gradually move across srn WI tnt. The low levels will remain fairly dry, but with mid level moisture and possibly a little instability present. Cold advection will bring cooler temps for late tnt-Sun but still relatively mild.
608 PM CDT Sat May 14 2022 (This evening through Sunday) Another hot day on tap with mostly sunny skies and temperatures mainly in the lower to mid 90s as of the 2 PM hour. Upper level ridging builds in from northern Mexico putting the clamp on any rain chances. A heat advisory may need to be issued by the night crew if model guidance continues to trend warmer for tomorrow.
640 PM CDT Sat May 14 2022 Cold front passed through this morning and early this afternoon, with temperatures dropping a few degrees with its passage. As of 19z, the front has still not crossed Cherokee or Storm Lake where winds remain more westerly and CKP is in the upper 70s and SLB in the lower 80s.
540 PM MDT Sat May 14 2022 Upper ridging will be amplifying along the Rockies over the next 24 hours as stronger northern stream energy begins to stack up in the high latitudes. There appears to be a branch of stronger winds moving across late tomorrow as the ridge begins to be forced out by the arrival of a southern stream system.
600 PM MDT Sat May 14 2022 The upper level ridge will be centered over the Great Basin/Central Rockies tonight, with a moderate northwesterly flow over the forecast area. Overall, temperatures will be 2-4 degrees cooler than today's highs.
530 PM MDT Sat May 14 2022 High pressure continues to build across the western CONUS as it pushes eastward into the Four Corners, as a weak frontal boundary digs southeasterly across the Great Plains.
327 PM MDT Sat May 14 2022 The upper level ridge will be centered over the Great Basin/Central Rockies tonight, with a moderate northwesterly flow over the forecast area. Overall, temperatures will be 2-4 degrees cooler than today's highs.
Widespread dry conditions expected overnight and into Sunday morning under high pressure.
1000 PM EDT Sat May 14 2022 Surface analysis late this evening shows a weak trough of low pressure tretching from NE OH across Indiana to a weak area of low pressure in place ovet he soutern plains. This trough was poorly organized. Flow is weak across the area today, between a dying upper low in the Southeast and a poleward lifting midlevel low north of the Dakotas. This will continue within mean northwesterly flow pattern until mid-week when deamplfying ridging nudges in.
Cyclonic flow continues over the north central CONUS as a closed upper level low slowly moves from the southern Canadian Prairies towards the Hudson Bay today. The state remains under the northwest flow that has brought windy conditions over the previous several days, however the stronger flow and pressure gradient is shifting to the east, with ridging and high pressure building from the west.
Currently, RH values in the upper teens are being observed over the prone areas with southwest winds starting to gust into the low 20s. As deep mixing intensifies ahead of an approaching secondary cold front, could see gusts increase up to 30 mph this afternoon. As the aforementioned cold front moves closer, could see some rain showers form late this afternoon and overspread the UP from west to east. Models show an upper-level low moving in across central Canada as downstream blocking continues. As troffing develops along the West Coast, ridging will develop across the Rockies.
The rain should become more widespread tonight through early Monday morning, as a cold front moves through.
Temperatures will trend cooler on Sunday along with breezy onshore winds. Summerlike conditions will then persist through much of the upcoming week with seasonably warm temperatures inland while conditions remain cooler, more cloudy near the coast.
With this upper-level trough, deeper moisture is overspreading the peninsula as well. A drier and more well-mixed layer in the lowest kilometer, and potential precip loading in the column, could also create a stronger downburst or two with thunderstorms that develop. The upper-level low adding this slight enhancement to the area loses what little steam it has fast as the parent trough axis is quickly swept up in the faster flow to the north, leaving the low over us behind to fall apart. For much of the remainder of the work week, a ridge building in from the west should usher in additional drier air in the mid-levels and create more subsidence at the surface.
1234 AM CDT Sun May 15 2022 (This evening through Sunday) Another hot day on tap with mostly sunny skies and temperatures mainly in the lower to mid 90s as of the 2 PM hour. Upper level ridging builds in from northern Mexico putting the clamp on any rain chances. A heat advisory may need to be issued by the night crew if model guidance continues to trend warmer for tomorrow.
909 PM PDT Sat May 14 2022 Ridging aloft shifts east Sunday bringing cooling for the mountains westward but continued heat in the deserts.
BW Chattanooga Airport, TN 87 65 84 59 85 / 30 40 40 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 85 64 81 55 82 / 20 50 60 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 85 63 81 55 83 / 30 50 50 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 82 59 77 51 78 / 40 30 80 0 0.
1050 PM CDT Sat May 14 2022 Cold front passed through this morning and early this afternoon, with temperatures dropping a few degrees with its passage. As of 19z, the front has still not crossed Cherokee or Storm Lake where winds remain more westerly and CKP is in the upper 70s and SLB in the lower 80s.
146 AM EDT Sun May 15 2022 A weakening area of low pressure will lift off to the northeast through tonight leaving more typical summer-like weather across the Carolinas with much warmer temperatures and localized shower or thunderstorm activity.
Surface analysis late this evening shows a weak trough of low pressure tretching from NE OH across Indiana to a weak area of low pressure in place ovet he soutern plains. This trough was poorly organized. Flow is weak across the area today, between a dying upper low in the Southeast and a poleward lifting midlevel low north of the Dakotas. This will continue within mean northwesterly flow pattern until mid-week when deamplfying ridging nudges in.
Mass convergence in vicinity of a cold front approaching from the northwest and a lee trough/dryline approaching from the west will likely support widely scattered thunderstorm development this afternoon across western Kansas. Thinking this activity will graze Wichita's far northeast/east counties, with the highest chances generally east/northeast of a line extending from Salina to Cottonwood Falls to Sedan.
1121 PM MDT Sat May 14 2022 Upper ridging will be amplifying along the Rockies over the next 24 hours as stronger northern stream energy begins to stack up in the high latitudes. There appears to be a branch of stronger winds moving across late tomorrow as the ridge begins to be forced out by the arrival of a southern stream system.
Some isolated showers and thunderstorms developed over the Hill Country in response to this northwesterly flow today, but as ridging builds in from the west on Sunday, the thunderstorms chances should be cutoff for the time being. As far as temperatures go, expect near-record to likely record high territory for all 4 climate sites, there is a good bet that some of these record will fall, particularly with the low hanging fruit for records at AUS, ATT, and SAT.
A beautiful day was felt throughout the area today, as high pressure overhead gave us clear skies and light winds. High pressure slowly slides off to our east, as a weak wave approaches the area. There are some slight chances along the approaching cold front early this evening in our northwest. It will feel much cooler than it has been lately, with most sitting in the upper 60s to low 70s.
A new complex of thunderstorms is forecast to develop late tonight and early Sunday morning, ahead of an advancing cold front across southern Nebraska and northern Kansas. The MCS outflow will enhance/accelerate a cold front southward through SW KS Sunday morning, with north/northeast winds increasing to 20-30 mph with gusts as high as 40 mph after about 10 am.
A persistent mid-upper level ridge of high pressure centered west of SE Texas will build northeastward over SE Texas tomorrow and into Monday. This will support slightly warmer temperatures as compared to today. Model soundings are also indicating a prohibitive capping inversion continuing throughout the area as the ridge builds, so precipitation chances remain very low tomorrow and tomorrow eve.
(Today through Monday afternoon) Once again, we are looking at very hot temperatures for the short term period with an upper level ridge situated over SW CONUS. Thickness will increase this afternoon and temperatures will reach the triple digits for nearly everywhere except the higher terrain. We have a shot to either tie or break the high temperature record today at Midland Int'l (current record is 103, set back in 2003). Models indicate highs for Monday should be a few degrees cooler than Sunday, although much of the Permian Basin will likely still reach triple digits.
Otherwise, conditions look pretty quiet as high pressure settles in over the region later today and tonight. The high will begin to get pushed east on Monday as low pressure slides across the Rockies to the far western High Plains.
905 PM MDT Sat May 14 2022 There is increasing mid to high level moisture and cloudiness with the passing disturbance in the flow aloft, but it's still very dry in the lower levels and northeast Colorado probably won't get much more than scattered virga on the northern plains, resulting in moderate gustiness. Skies should clear a bit tonight behind the disturbance and as heights rise while the ridge builds and moves over the Great Basin. The upper level ridge will be centered over the Great Basin/Central Rockies tonight, with a moderate northwesterly flow over the forecast area. Overall, temperatures will be 2-4 degrees cooler than today's highs. An upper ridge is over the CWA Sunday night through Monday.
An upper-level ridge is quickly amplifying over the area allowing for clearing skies and warming temperatures. Moisture riding atop the ridge associated with an U/L trough moving into the Pacific NW will push through the central mountains during the late evening and early morning hours on Monday. The ridge will gradually begin to flatten throughout the day Monday with afternoon showers and thunderstorms expected to develop given decent instability in place.
Otherwise, VFR and light winds will be the rule as a high pressure ridge moves overheard Sunday. A cold front moving in from southeast Colorado will lead to cooler temperatures and breezy to windy north winds for eastern New Mexico Sunday night.
An upper level trough will continue to shift east across the Midwest and portions of the Southeast today, keeping northwest flow in place aloft. Guidance has trended slightly warmer with afternoon highs today as some locations could reach near 90 degrees.
Weak northerly flow aloft will remain in place through the near term as a southern stream trough evolves over the East-Central Gulf and an upper-level ridge continues to build over Southwest US and Mexico. By Sunday afternoon, as the ridge begins to amplify, a northern stream trough will begin to dig southeastward. The trough's axis will pass to the north of our region by Monday evening as the trough takes on a negative tilt over the northeast US. At the surface, high pressure over the Appalachians and over the Western Gulf allow for light winds to continue across the region. These highs will remain in place through Monday before a weak frontal boundary, in association with the digging trough, begins approaching the region by Monday afternoon.
Flow aloft Sunday will turn to the northwest as a ridge sets up over Montana in the morning. Sunday night the aforementioned ridge over Montana continues to move eastward. This will push out the low in southern Canada. Monday the ridge axis moves into eastern Montana, along with a collocated thermal ridge at 850mb.
Still think that the highest totals will fall across the southern periphery of the forecast area with amounts up to a quarter of an inch. Clear skies should continue into the evening and overnight hours due to downward motion from negative vorticity advection on the backside of the departed trough, making for an ideal time to view the lunar eclipse tonight! Lows overnight will radiationally cool down to 40s due to light winds and clear skies. A warmer day is expected on Monday as upper ridging pushes into the Northern Plains. Should see warmer temperatures up into the 70s and 80s, making for a beautiful spring day! Another trough will begin to move off the Rockies Monday evening. The trough will generate a lee low that will drag a warm front into the southern portion of the forecast area.
1138 PM MDT Sat May 14 2022 There is increasing mid to high level moisture and cloudiness with the passing disturbance in the flow aloft, but it's still very dry in the lower levels and northeast Colorado probably won't get much more than scattered virga on the northern plains, resulting in moderate gustiness. Skies should clear a bit tonight behind the disturbance and as heights rise while the ridge builds and moves over the Great Basin. The upper level ridge will be centered over the Great Basin/Central Rockies tonight, with a moderate northwesterly flow over the forecast area. Overall, temperatures will be 2-4 degrees cooler than today's highs. An upper ridge is over the CWA Sunday night through Monday.
Cooler air will move into central Illinois for the early part of the week, with dry conditions expected.
- Storms end early this evening The primary cold front is moving through Southwest Michigan as I write this. - Second cold front brings showers later Sunday The real cold front (actually brings colder air) comes through Sunday evening.
The cold front that moved into the area yesterday, has stalled from about Kirksville to KC. An upper level trough will move through helping expand the coverage of these storms. As the complex of storms moves southeast, instability will increase with daytime heating and the storms will catch up to the cold front.
High pressure building over the Desert Southwest will push temperatures about 10 degrees above normal for mid May through the weekend and the first half of the upcoming week. Low pressure approaching from the north could bring cooler temperatures and increased wind late in the week. The only other weather concern is increasing high clouds which will provide some filtered sunshine on Sunday, but may also hamper the viewing of the total lunar eclipse Sunday evening before the high clouds pull away late Sunday night/early Monday morning. Surface obs showed light winds and temperatures four to nine degrees warmer than 24 hours ago. There are still only a few speckles of High heat risk in the Death Valley and Bullhead City areas, with Moderate for the rest of the lower deserts, so no heat products will be needed.
As the upper low over the Eastern Gulf continues to retreat, mid/upper ridging will build back into the Central CONUS. As upper ridging strengthens over the next few days, a general warming trend is expected with highs in the low/mid 90s today and the mid/upper 90s on Monday. Continued WAA/moisture advection will keep lows in the low 70s inland and the upper 70s along the coast.
The upper level ridge over northwest Mexico into the Desert Southwest tonight will slowly move eastward through the period and be from west Texas into northeast Mexico by 12Z Monday. High temperatures will be slightly warmer on Sunday as the upper level ridge approaches from the west.
Today through Sunday - Several weak waves will swing around the upper low over southern Canada that will bring us a few slight chances for rain. This wave will bring a cold front boundary moving slowly eastward with isolated showers/t-storms around central and eastern Minnesota shifting into western Wisconsin this afternoon.
The main upper level low that's brought unsettled conditions to the region over the last few days will be weakening and moving off to the northeast through Sunday. While this low moves off, an amplifying upper level ridge our west will reinforce cyclonic upper level flow through the region. A mid level area of low pressure over the state will begin to shift more eastward on Monday, leaving most of the area in weak northwesterly flow. A warm and moist airmass will persist across the area with a cold front advancing southward across the southeast CONUS. High temperatures are forecast in the upper 80s along the coast to the low 90s inland.
SHORT TERM (Today through Monday): Broad 500mb ridging anchored over the southern tip of Baja California will maintain hot days, warm and humid nights, and rain-free conditions through the period. At the surface, high pressure across the central Gulf of Mexico will support moderate to breezy southeast winds. Highs will range from the lower 80s at the beaches, the low to mid 90s across the Rio Grande Valley and the upper 90s to the triple digits across the Rio Grande Plains under mostly sunny skies. Lows tonight are expected to fall into the upper 60s across the northern Ranchlands to the lower 70s along the Rio Grande River and near the coast.
Sfc ridging will be situated overhead and cooler, more pleasant air should be in place to start the work week.
Flow aloft will generally be quasi-zonal early on with an upper ridge centered over the GoM translating east through mid to late week.