Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
236 PM CDT SUN OCT 18 2015 UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO HOLD ITS POSITION ACROSS THE SRN CONUS. WHILE HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND A VERY DRY AIRMASS CONTINUE TO DOMINATE OUR REGION. SLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES DEVELOPS IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING UPPER TROF. UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE. THE UPPER TROF IS FCST TO BECOME CUT OFF EARLY THIS WORK WEEK. MEANWHILE THE RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY JUST TO OUR E. WHICH WILL SLOW THE EWD PROGRESSION OF THE LOW EVEN MORE. AS THE RIDGE IS ERODED BY DISTURBANCES AHEAD OF THE LOW AND THE LOW OPENS UP AFTER MID WEEK. WE WILL FINALLY SEE THIS TROF PUSH INTO TX.
322 PM EDT SUN OCT 18 2015 HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS SOUTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT. THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE ON MONDAY.
245 PM EDT SUN OCT 18 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT AND THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON MONDAY.
623 PM EDT SUN OCT 18 2015 HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS SOUTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT. THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE ON MONDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A WARMING TREND MONDAY THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.
AT THE SURFACE AND IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE LEVELS. SATELLITE IMAGERY OVERLAID WITH MARINE AND LAND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AS OF 200 PM DETAIL THE CENTER OF A 1035 MB SURFACE ANTICYCLONE NEAR SOUTHERN INDIANA. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT HAS REACHED TO NEAR LAKE OCHEOCHOBEE. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE ISLANDS HAVE REACHED INTO THE LOWER 80S WITH DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES AROUND 70 DEGREES. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY IN COMBINATION WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER THE YUCATAN REGION WILL CONTINUE TO DRIVE A SURFACE FRONT SOUTHWARDS DOWN THE PENINSULA TOWARDS THE KEYS.
319 PM EDT SUN OCT 18 2015 COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE GIVES WIDESPREAD FREEZE FOR DAWN MONDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. WHILE HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO RISE ALOFT AS THE TROUGH PULLS OUT FURTHER OVER THE ATLANTIC. NEAR 60 TO THE LOWER 60S. TEMPS WILL ONCE AGAIN FLIRT WITH THE FREEZING MARK ESPECIALLY IN THE OUTLYING AREAS DESPITE THE SLOWLY MODIFYING AIR MASS. LIKELY A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER THAN THE MON MORNING LOWS. WITH ANOTHER RISK OF FROST OR FREEZE CONDITIONS IN THE TYPICALLY COOLER SPOTS.
SO CURRENT FORECAST OF ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGHS MONDAY LOOKS FINE. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE OVER SRN CA WITH A WEAK SWLY FLOW ALOFT OVER COLORADO.
635 PM EDT SUN OCT 18 2015 AVIATION SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT LATER IN THE WEEK.
EARLY AFTERNOON SATELLITE IMAGERY WAS SHOWING A COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DIGGING ESE THROUGH CALIFORNIA WITH SEVERAL IDENTIFIABLE DISTURBANCES ROTATING ABOUT THE LOW. IS THE WAVE EJECTING ENE FROM THE BASE OF THE LOW INTO SW NEVADA. THE MAIN BODY OF THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NE THROUGH THE REGION SUPPORTING WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY GENERALLY FAVORING THE MOUNTAINS.
507 PM EDT SUN OCT 18 2015 A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
340 PM CDT SUN OCT 18 2015 THE SHORT TERM WILL REMAIN MUCH ABOVE NORMAL ON TEMPERATURES AS A COUPLE SHORT WAVE TROUGHS AND THEIR ASSOCIATED SURFACE COOL FRONTS/TROUGHS MOVE THROUGH THE REGION.
TONIGHT A WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS.
AFTER A SOMEWHAT SURPRISINGLY WET START TO THE DAY FOR PARTS OF THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY THANKS TO A VORTICITY MAX THAT MOVED SOUTH AROUND THE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. WITH THE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH STILL SITTING OVER CALIFORNIA IT CERTAINLY IS NOT AN IMPOSSIBILITY THIS EVENING. I HAVE OPTED TO KEEP THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY FAIRLY DRY BUT SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE EXPECTED OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE EXPECTATION IS THAT WITH A DRIER AIR MASS MOVING IN BEHIND THE TROUGH WOULD KEEP MOST OF THE CONVECTION AT BAY OVERNIGHT.
349 PM EDT SUN OCT 18 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION FOR MOST OF THE WEEK.
UPPER RIDGING WILL MOVE EAST OVER THE AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS PROVIDING DRY CONDITIONS FOR CENTRAL INDIANA.
341 PM EDT SUN OCT 18 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORKWEEK AS AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL BUILD EAST INTO THE APPALACHIANS OVERNIGHT HOLDING CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REGION. RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT INTO THE UPSTATE/PIEDMONT TONIGHT. DE-COUPLING MORE LIKELY NEAR RIDGE AXIS SO FROST ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED ACROSS THE NORTH MIDLANDS AND PIEDMONT WITH AREAS OF FROST. DRY HIGH PRESSURE AIR MASS CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION WITH A MAINLY CLEAR SKY. TEMPERATURES MONDAY MAY BE SLIGHTLY WARMER DUE TO AIR MASS MODIFICATION.
305 PM CDT SUN OCT 18 2015 STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO USHER IN WARMER TEMPERATURES EARLY ON IN THE PERIOD. GUSTY WINDS WILL FINALLY DIMINISH LATE MONDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE REGION FLATTENS OUT.
411 PM EDT SUN OCT 18 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. THE HIGH WILL MOVE TO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
THE FREEZE WARNING DOES NOT INCLUDE SW VA AND NEARLY ALL THE MOUNTAIN ZONES OF TN BECAUSE THEY HAD FREEZING CONDITIONS LAST NIGHT. THE CURRENT FREEZE WARNING INCLUDES MANY LOCATIONS THAT DID NOT REACH FREEZING. THEN TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER THAN CURRENT FORECAST. CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL ON MONDAY WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES EAST THROUGH THE WORK WEEK AS MORE ZONAL FLOW SETS UP. A TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE IN THE EXTENDED.
Dry conditions will persist across western Kansas through late Monday afternoon as short range models indicate an upper level ridge of high pressure breaking down as it continues to push eastward across the Central Plains during the period. Warmer temperatures are likely for lows tonight as a prevailing, and at times gusty, southerly flow draws warmer air northward into western Kansas overnight and Monday.
500MB RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES TONIGHT WILL MOVE EASTWARD AND GRADUALLY FLATTEN OUT MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS A 500MB TROUGH/LOW MOVES INTO THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY WILL SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD AND THE EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL VEER TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST MONDAY INTO MON NIGHT. LONG PERIOD SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF AND MOVE TOWARDS THE LOWER TEXAS COAST TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.
SIGNIFICANT MOIST SURGE FROM THE SOUTH TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING AS UPPER LOW TRACKS EAST ACROSS NEVADA.
409 PM EDT SUN OCT 18 2015 A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EASTWARD TONIGHT. SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY ON MONDAY AS THIS HIGH MOVES TO THE EAST. ALLOWING WARMER AIR TO MOVE INTO THE REGION.
A DEEP MID LEVEL TROUGH FROM NEW ENGLAND SOUTH ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THIS AFTERNOON WILL SHIFT EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC TONIGHT WITH A ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY. OTHERWISE DEEP LAYERED DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH SHOULD KEEP RAIN OUT OF THE FORECAST WITH PLEASANT DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.
SHORT TERM: (Through Late This Afternoon) Cold morning across the CWA with temperatures generally in the lower to middle 30s. Area of high pressure that has been responsible for the frosty mornings will begin to move east today and this will allow some moderation in the temperature as the wind comes around to the south. Have most locations getting into the lower 60s today.
127 PM CDT SUN OCT 18 2015 FOR 18Z TAFS /ISSUED 1055 AM CDT SUN OCT 18 2015/ OVERNIGHT LOWS HIT THE FREEZING MARK AT A FEW LOCATIONS INCLUDING THE DECATUR AND MERIDIANVILLE AIRPORT WHILE RUSSELLVILLE AIRPORT WAS THE COLDEST REPORT THAT CAME IN WITH A CHILLY 28 DEGREES! OTHERWISE. THE LOWS RANGED FROM THE MID 30S TO MID 40S ACROSS THE TN VALLEY. HIGHS WILL BE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN YESTERDAY WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION STILL IN PLACE. STILL AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL OUR HIGHS WILL WARM UP INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S.
THE WEATHER IS NICE AND QUIET WITH THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM BEING ANY FREEZING TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. ONE MORE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING NEAR THE FREEZING MARK FOR MIDDLE TENNESSEE FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS. THINK MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK WITH ANY LOCATION DIPPING 32F OR BELOW AND DOING SO BRIEFLY WITH MOST OF THOSE READINGS IN RURAL LOCATIONS.
306 PM MDT SUN OCT 18 2015 A RELATIVELY MOIST SW FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY CLOUDS AND SHOWERS INTO THE AREA OUT AHEAD OF A SLOWLY APPROACHING TROUGH ALONG THE CALIF COAST. THIS TROUGH IS SHOWING SIGNS OF MOVING INLAND AS THE MODELS PROJECTED THE LAST FEW DAYS. ANOTHER SMALL TROUGH CAN BE SEEN OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA AND IS PROJECTED TO ROLL OVER THE FORECAST AREA AFTER ABOUT 04Z THIS EVENING. THE CENTER OF THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH AXIS WILL REACH NEVADA ON MONDAY BEFORE SPLITTING ON MONDAY NIGHT. AS THE TROUGH SHEARS INTO TWO PIECES. THE CLOSED LOW IS PROGGED TO HEAD SOUTH TO SOCAL AND THE NORTHERN PIECE OF THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN AN OPEN TROUGH ACROSS MT/ID/WY.
148 PM EDT SUN OCT 18 2015 COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE GIVES WIDESPREAD FREEZE FOR DAWN MONDAY.
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES TODAY HAVE NOT ALLOWED BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING QUITE AS MUCH AS YESTERDAY. HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES WITH LITTLE CHANGES TO THE ONGOING FORECAST.
327 PM MDT SUN OCT 18 2015 THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS THAT WAS OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION YESTERDAY HAS SHIFTED EAST INTO THE GREAT PLAINS. A CLOSED LOW OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND TROUGH AXIS INTO BAJA WAS DRIFTING SLOWLY EAST TOWARD THE GREAT BASIN. THE SURFACE GRADIENT BETWEEN A PLAINS LEESIDE TROUGH AND RIDGE TO THE WEST WAS GENERATING GUSTY WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE COWBOY STATE.
656 PM EDT SUN OCT 18 2015 THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW UPPER RIDGING WILL MOVE EAST OVER THE AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS PROVIDING DRY CONDITIONS FOR CENTRAL INDIANA.
143 PM EDT SUN OCT 18 2015 AVIATION HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING FAIR WEATHER TODAY AND MONDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A WARMING TREND MONDAY THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN FALL BELOW FREEZING ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TODAY. LOTS OF SUNSHINE STILL EXPECTED TODAY WITH A ALTHOUGH NORTHEAST SECTIONS SHOULD SEE A FEW CLOUDS AS POCKETS OF VORTICITY ROTATE INTO THE MEAN MID LEVEL TROUGH BASE. -GIH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN BELOW A HALF-INCH WITH AN 850MB THETA-E TROUGH AND OVERALL SUBSIDENCE PERSISTING IN THIS PERIOD THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
631 PM EDT SUN OCT 18 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. THE HIGH WILL MOVE TO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
WE ACTUALLY SEE A SHORT WAVE RIDGE BUILD OVER OUR WEST TONIGHT AHEAD OF MAIN UPPER TROUGH TRACKING OUT OF NEVADA. BY TOMORROW MORNING THE MAIN VORTICITY LOBE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL LIFT ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA.
A LOW MOVING ACROSS CANADA WILL DRAG A TRAILING COLD FRONT INTO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN MONDAY AFTERNOON. CONTINUING WARM ADVECTION ON MONDAY WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES. SW UPPER LOW BECOMES ABSORBED AND FLOW CONSOLIDATES SOMEWHAT. UPPER FLOW THEN CONSOLIDATES AND BECOMES A BIT MORE AMPLIFIED AS RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS SE US WITH TROF OVER THE ROCKIES. LOW PRESSURE AND FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE WEST.
AS TEMPS CLIMB INTO THE LOWER/MID 60S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. THX IN PART TO TEMP TRENDS RUNNING A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN SAT. AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING MUCH OF THE ERN CONUS BEGINS TO GRADUALLY TRANSLATE EWD MON/TUE. UPPER RIDGING THEN LOOKS TO DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE CNTRL GULF STATES AFTER MID WEEK. AS AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS DIGS ACROSS THE SW STATES.
315 PM CDT SUN OCT 18 2015 1033 mb high pressure over the lower Ohio river valley will drift east to the mid Atlantic states by Monday morning while upper level ridge over the Great Plains shifts east toward the MS river valley. SSE return flow on back side of high pressure keeping it from getting as cold as past two nights when we had freezing temperatures. A pronounced surface pressure gradient will set up Monday between the departing high pressure system which will be along the east coast and a developing surface pressure trough/frontal boundary from the central Plains to the upper Midwest.
125 PM EDT SUN OCT 18 2015 LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A LARGE COLD DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN EDGES OF THE OHIO VALLEY REGION AND CONTINUING TO PROVIDE A COOL/DRY NORTHERLY WIND FLOW ACROSS THE STATE. THE FROST THREAT THIS MORNING IS BEING HAMPERED INITIALLY BY NORTH WINDS OF 4-6 MPH AND THE HIGH CLOUDS. BUT THE HIGH CLOUDS ARE THINNING AND WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DIMINISH. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A COOL/DRY FORECAST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE INFLUENCE. THE COLD AIR ADVECTION PATTERN WILL ALLOW HIGH AND LOW TEMPS TO RUN 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN NORMAL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AND BEYOND. 39 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO CONTROL THE WEATHER ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA THE FIRST PART OF THIS WEEK RESULTING IN DRY/STABLE CONDITIONS.
137 PM MDT SUN OCT 18 2015 WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS RIDGE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN PLAINS AND CLOSED LOW CENTERED OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. AT THE SURFACE LEE TROUGH HAS DEEPENED ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO WITH SW GRADIENT ACROSS OUR CWA. A WARM FRONT HAS LIFTED NORTH OF KMCK AND TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION HAVE WARMED INTO THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. LEE TROUGH WILL SHIFT EASTWARD IN RESPONSE TO DEEPENING TROUGH IN THE WEST AND SHIFT TO SW FLOW ALOFT. A VERY SIMILAR AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE AND ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S TO MID 80S ARE EXPECTED.
A large upper level trough will keep our area in southwest flow aloft the next 24 hours, resulting in some scattered high level clouds from time to time. It will be cool again tonight, with overnight lows in the lower to middle 50s. On Monday, a lee trough will develop by afternoon. Temperatures will be pleasant, with afternoon highs generally in the lower 80s. They all show an upper-level low situated over southern California Monday night, and track the low towards West Central Texas. Yesterday, the GFS was showing this low dampening out somewhat into an upper trough, while the ECMWF maintained a closed circulation as it crossed the state.
433 PM MDT SUN OCT 18 2015 WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS RIDGE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN PLAINS AND CLOSED LOW CENTERED OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. AT THE SURFACE LEE TROUGH HAS DEEPENED ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO WITH SW GRADIENT ACROSS OUR CWA. A WARM FRONT HAS LIFTED NORTH OF KMCK AND TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION HAVE WARMED INTO THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. LEE TROUGH WILL SHIFT EASTWARD IN RESPONSE TO DEEPENING TROUGH IN THE WEST AND SHIFT TO SW FLOW ALOFT. A VERY SIMILAR AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE AND ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S TO MID 80S ARE EXPECTED.
159 PM EDT SUN OCT 18 2015 A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EASTWARD TONIGHT. SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY ON MONDAY AS THIS HIGH MOVES TO THE EAST. ALLOWING WARMER AIR TO MOVE INTO THE REGION.
LATEST WV LOOP SHOWS UPPER LOW MOVING ONTO THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING REMAINS OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. WHILE A LEE SIDE TROUGH THROUGH EASTERN MONTANA PUSHES THROUGH WILLISTON AND DICKINSON BY SUNSET. MID LEVEL SUPPORT WAS VERY WEAK AND WITH A LACK OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THE TROUGH PASSAGE IS FORECAST TO BE DRY. A GUSTY SOUTHEAST WIND AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. THE DRY TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
230 PM EDT SUN OCT 18 2015 COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE GIVES WIDESPREAD FREEZE FOR DAWN MONDAY.
352 PM CDT SUN OCT 18 2015 DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY EVEN WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
Low level ridging over the eastern half of the CONUS is centered over the KY-IN border. As we sit on the southeastern edge of the ridge, our low level flow today is from the northeast and may be gusty at times this afternoon thanks to a tight pressure gradient in place. At the upper levels, zonal flow is shifting to northwesterly flow as upper level ridging moves eastward today, which will continue to push the upper level cloudiness over our Florida zones southeastward through the evening. Highs today are on track to peak in the low to mid 70s.
301 PM PDT SUN OCT 18 2015 LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL KEEP SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING.
317 PM EDT SUN OCT 18 2015 BUT FLATTENS QUICKLY OVERNIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW AND WEAK UPPER RIDGING BEGINS BUILDING INTO THE REGION BY THE END OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD.
1219 PM CDT SUN OCT 18 2015 MAIN FORECAST CONCERN SHORT TERM WILL DEAL WITH TIMING AND STRENGTH OF SHORT WAVES COMING INTO THE PLAINS REGION IN ADVANCE OF UPPER LOW OVER ARIZONA MEXICAN BORDER. PERIOD STARTS OFF QUITE MILD WITH UPPER RIDGE AXIS LOCATED ACROSS THE PLAINS REGION. RIDGE SLOWLY WEAKENS WITH TIME AND FLATTENS BY LATE IN THE PERIOD AS NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
218 PM EDT SUN OCT 18 2015 A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL LIFT OUT. WILL BE DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE ALLEGHENY FOREST REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MIGRATE EWD FROM THE LWR OH VALLEY LATER TODAY AND BE CENTERED OVER THE MD/WV PANHANDLE BY 12Z MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION MONDAY. AVERAGING SOME 5 TO 15 DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY. THAT SAID THERE IS SOME SPREAD IN KEY SYNOPTIC FEATURES OVER THE LOWER 48.
158 PM EDT SUN OCT 18 2015 HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORK-WEEK AS AN UPPER- LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL BUILD EAST INTO THE APPALACHIANS OVERNIGHT HOLDING CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REGION. COLD AIR ADVECTION THIS AFTERNOON WILL RESULT IN MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ABOUT 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT INTO THE UPSTATE/PIEDMONT TONIGHT. DE-COUPLING MORE LIKELY NEAR RIDGE AXIS SO FROST ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED ACROSS THE NORTH MIDLANDS AND PIEDMONT WITH AREAS OF FROST. DRY HIGH PRESSURE AIR MASS CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION WITH A MAINLY CLEAR SKY. TEMPERATURES MONDAY MAY BE SLIGHTLY WARMER DUE TO AIR MASS MODIFICATION.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE PULLS AWAY TO THE EAST. KEPT POPS ON THE LOW END THOUGH GIVEN WEAK FORCING AND A FAIR AMOUNT OF DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS.
141 PM CDT SUN OCT 18 2015 Will start the day with an upper ridge over the center of the country with a trough along the Pacific coast. As this trough moves east it develops a cut off low over Southern CA/Baja and then tracks it east along the US/Mex border.
142 PM EDT SUN OCT 18 2015 CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE HAS SETTLED INTO THE OHIO VALLEY PROVIDING COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST COAST MONDAY ALLOWING A SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP AND A WARMING TREND.
225 PM EDT SUN OCT 18 2015 A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN COOLER AND HUMID WEATHER.
217 PM EDT SUN OCT 18 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT THEN SLIDE SOUTH OF THE REGION ON MONDAY.
ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT FOR THE LOWCOUNTRY AND COASTAL EMPIRE. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE NORTH THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK. WITH A WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGH FORMING JUST OFFSHORE BY MID WEEK.
1025 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015 OUTSIDE OF A FEW SHOWERS AND A MODEST OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MIGRATING SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE NEARSHORE GULF WATERS NORTH OF THE LOWER KEYS AND THE OUTER WATERS OF MAINLAND MONROE. EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND WILL KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 80S UNDER GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. WITH THE WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA.
CALIFORNIA IS BETWEEN A 595DM DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND A 581DM LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA IN A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME MONSOONAL PATTERN.
THOUGH THERE ARE STILL SOME DIFFERENCES WITHIN THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS IN THE AREAL DISTRIBUTION OF QPF MAXES. KEPT WITH THE HIGHER QPF SW / LOWER NE DEPICTION GOING.
730 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LINGERS TO THE WEST THROUGH THURSDAY.
918 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015 ALL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS MOVED OUT OF THE AREA WITH JUST A FEW LINGERING SPOTS OF RAIN/SHOWERS AROUND THE HIGH ISLAND AND BOLIVAR PENINSULA AREA.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO BRING QUIET WEATHER TO THE AREA DURING THIS TIME. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER INTO THURSDAY.
1145 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015 A WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT IS DISSIPATING AS IT DROPS SOUTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA THIS EVENING.
952 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. BULK OF GUIDANCE SUGGEST BEST FORCING (THOUGH NOT OVERWHELMING) WILL OCCUR IN VICINITY OF THE 850-700MB TROUGH. WILL LEAD TO A SIMILAR TEMP GRADIENT WITH AFTERNOON TEMPS IN THE LOW/MID 80S NORTH WHERE CLOUDS AND PRECIP WILL BE MORE EXTENSIVE.
720 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015 A WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT IS DISSIPATING AS IT DROPS SOUTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA THIS EVENING.
722 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015 ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING BEHIND THIS AFTERNOON/S COLD FRONT. IT WILL REMAIN PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY WEATHER RETURN FOR THURSDAY. WEAK COLD FRONT HAS CLEARED THE AREA AND HAS TAKEN MOST OF THE SHOWERS WITH IT. HI/S THU WILL ONCE AGAIN BE BLO NRML UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE NW FLOW AND BROAD UPR TROF.
ONE OVER LEE COUNTY AND ANOTHER NEAR THE HIGHLANDS/POLK COUNTY BORDERS BOTH OF WHICH PRODUCE SOME LARGE HAIL.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 02/00Z UPPER-AIR PLOTS SHOW HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT BASIN WITH EAST TO SOUTHEAST STEERING FLOW OVER ARIZONA. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION RANGED FROM THE LOWER 70S TO THE UPPER 80S. STARTING TODAY THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN IS BEGINNING TO REORIENT THE RIDGE FROM NEVADA THROUGH NEW MEXICO WITH OUR FLOW GAINING AN INCREASINGLY DOMINANT SOUTHERLY COMPONENT.
THEN AFT 18Z THURS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL KEEP A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
IT WILL BE ANOTHER HOT DAY AS A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT REMAINS OVER THE REGION.
EXPECT SIMILAR CONDITIONS THURSDAY IN THE CONTINUED SOUTHEAST FLOW BETWEEN THE RIDGE TO OUR EAST AND AN UPPER LOW SPINNING OFF OF BAJA.
755 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015 HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING INTO THE AREA WHICH WILL KEEP MOST OF OUR AREA DRY INTO THE WEEKEND. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S AND HIGHS TOMORROW WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S. EXCEPT COOLER ALONG THE SHORES OF LAKE MICHIGAN. LEAVING OUR AREA UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE.
1045 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015 ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING BEHIND THIS AFTERNOON/S COLD FRONT. IT WILL REMAIN PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY WEATHER RETURN FOR THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY FALLING INTO THE LOWER 60S, SO WITH FAIRLY LIGHT SURFACE WINDS AND PLENTY OF SOGGY TERRAIN, I EXPECT FOG WILL BECOME AN ISSUE SOMETIME BETWEEN 7Z AND 9Z. WEAK COLD FRONT HAS CLEARED THE AREA AND HAS TAKEN MOST OF THE SHOWERS WITH IT. HI/S THU WILL ONCE AGAIN BE BLO NRML UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE NW FLOW AND BROAD UPR TROF.
1238 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LINGERS TO THE WEST THROUGH THURSDAY.
WILL REFINE POPS FOR THE EVENING KEEPING THE NORTH CENTRAL LOW AND THE HIGHEST POPS ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER AND ALONG I94 BETWEEN BISMARCK AND JAMESTOWN SOUTH.
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEPART EASTWARD AWAY FROM MICHIGAN AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES REGION THIS AFTERNOON.