Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
356 PM EDT Sat Apr 4 2020 Weak high pressure briefly builds into the region tonight, moving off shore Sunday. A weak cold front moves through Sunday night.
The western edge of the low clouds were slowly spreading west this morning, and although that trend appears to have stopped, we are not getting significant erosion along the western edge currently. (Today and tonight) Overall, warmer today with decrease in cold air advection and thinning/decreasing cloud cover all but perhaps southeast parts of Oklahoma. By this evening, southerly flow will return and erosion of cooler airmass will be apparent. Lows tonight are forecast to be 5 to 10 degrees less cold Sunday morning with no expected threat of freezing temperatures.
Strong overrunning on top our unseasonably strong April cold front has led to continued rain across most of the area all day. Should see the activity end later this evening from west to east, as the lift weakens and some drier air filter into the low-levels of the atmosphere.
Forecast lows will probably be within a few degrees of the temp toward the end of the day today, and highs tomorrow are likely to be cooler than blended guidance with lots of cloud cover and only slow modification of the cool airmass in place.
303 PM CDT Sat Apr 4 2020 High pressure centered overhead has resulted in a sunny, but cool day. Through Sunday, this high will head into the Great Lakes, with return flow developing.
126 PM EDT Sat Apr 4 2020 High pressure will build into the region today into Sunday.
Despite cloud cover staying minimal overnight, lows shouldn't dip too far below freezing except for the higher terrain mountain zones. South to southwest winds will continue overnight to assist with warmer air getting infiltrated into the region.
Tonight and Sunday The short term will be a fairly quiet period weather wise as high pressure persists. Sunday will be bright and sunny, with temperatures recovering quickly from the overnight hours, especially near the Fox Valley which will have a warmer start. Kept temperatures towards the higher end of guidance, with highs in the lower to middle 50s.
235 PM CDT Sat Apr 4 2020 A leeward trough will slowly strengthen tonight into Sunday with south winds continuing. The southerly flow will draw some low-level moisture into the area, with dew points rising into the lower to mid 40s Sunday. With the increase in low-level moisture lows will remain well above freezing Sunday night. An upper level low pressure system will slowly meander southeast just off the California coast early this coming week resulting in rain and mountain snow across the desert southwest. Meanwhile a potent upper low will track across Canada. As the upper low tracks across Canada it will send a strong cold front south through the region.
326 PM EDT Sat Apr 4 2020 High pressure will remain in control through early Sunday.
329 PM EDT Sat Apr 4 2020 Quiet weather for the next several days as a rapidly weakening cold front carrying a few showers eases through the area this afternoon and tonight. Under full sun, temps rebound into the low to mid 50s by late afternoon.
expect a tightening pressure gradient as low pressure deepens on the lee side of the Rockies. the lower stratus will likely not work its way into the area until the late afternoon hours and after maximum peak heating is realized. West southwesterly flow aloft is expected to start the extended periods as an upper level low gradually shifts south across the California coast. expect a dry and uneventful start to the work week as a weak westerly flow pattern aloft is observed and the low pressure system across California becomes cutoff across the southwest.
Scattered to isolated rain showers are expected today into tonight as a cold front passes through the area.
124 PM EDT Sat Apr 4 2020 High pressure will build into the region today into Sunday.
1229 PM CDT Sat Apr 4 2020 Big ridge of high pressure at the surface will be the predominant influencer of weather across the area for the remainder of the weekend. As a result temperatures have dropped below freezing for this morning, however low stratus has helped keep temperatures a little more palatable. Mid level ridging will help keep conditions dry and on the upward trend for temperatures.
Temperatures will drop quickly after sunset, bottoming out below freezing by early Sunday morning.
Cold front has pushed south of Baffin Bay and has moved into the offshore waters late this morning. Low level warm air advection over the shallow cold air mass will lead to widespread showers and embedded thunderstorms for the rest of today with rain chances decreasing from west to east late this afternoon into early this evening as warm air advection decreases with the mid level short wave trough moving off to the northeast. Cold front continues to push through the offshore waters.
We continue to see varying amounts of mid/upper-level cloud cover streaming across the region over the top of the weak upper ridge axis centered over the north-central/northwest Gulf of Mexico, and this is expected to continue through Sunday night.
High pressure over nrn MN will move into nrn WI tnt, but still good radiational cooling conditions for srn WI. There will be some middle to high, thin clouds at times with low temps to drop just below freezing. High pressure will then slowly move across Lake MI and Lower MI through Sun nt.
Also, put the highest rain chances early in the tonight period and taper back to chance after midnight.
Further upstream, there is a trof along the coast of northern CA that is beginning to be kicked inland in response to more dynamic low moving southward off of the coast. The weaker trof will move through the northern great basin and western MT tonight into early Sunday, briefly clipping our west.
The weather pattern for Sunday is dry and warmer. Sunday will be warmer with additional drying.
1003 PM EDT Sat Apr 4 2020 Weak high pressure briefly builds into the region tonight, moving off shore Sunday. A weak cold front moves through Sunday night.
This is the result of a stalled frontal boundary stretched across the region, eventually expected to begin lifting back northward as a warm front late tonight through Sunday morning. The frontal boundary is expected to become more diffuse through Sunday before eventually lifting back northward as a warm front late in the day and especially overnight. Highs should generally average near 70 degrees, slightly warmer across our southern zones and a bit cooler farther north.
A warming trend have started to take place across Northeast Montana, with temperatures as of 2pm MDT reaching the low 40s in some places. Overall, a dry weather regime will establish across the region next few days, as an upper level ridge takes control of the weather locally.
the low level cloud deck is expected to remain in place over the region while an area of weak warm advection is forecast to expand across the CWA.
755 PM EDT Sat Apr 4 2020 Weak high pressure briefly builds into the region tonight, moving off shore Sunday. A weak cold front moves through Sunday night.
Weak cold frontal system in western North Dakota will steadily move east overnight. For tonight, we expect low pressure and an associated warm frontal boundary to move east from Montana through North Dakota. This will be the focus for small chances of rain and snow showers across south central North Dakota ahead of the warm front, and across north central North Dakota, along the trough axis of the low. On Sunday, a redeveloping lee side low pressure in Montana will quickly return a southerly flow of air into the region.
A building but relatively flat ridge aloft will yield a warming trend with MON-WED, though an active sub-tropical jet will keep some measure of rain chances in the forecast as well, especially MON and TUE. Next cold front slated to arrive in the THU-THU night time period bringing good rain chances and cooler temperatures, though differences in how global models handle a WRN CONUS upper low cloud the picture a bit for FRI and SAT.
Forecast challenges include temperature differential on Sunday with a frontal boundary part-way through the CWA, along with fog potential tonight out west within this surface trof/frontal boundary (where ever it ends up being by morning). Dry tonight and Sunday, while a cold front tries to work in to the far western/northwestern forecast zones overnight before stalling out over the CWA on Sunday. Behind this frontal boundary, daytime high temperatures on Sunday will probably be a few degrees cooler than places to the south and east of the boundary. Sunday night, staring into an almost summer-esque low level jet pattern progged by the models, in tandem with this stalled frontal boundary/pseudo warm-front, where the nose of the low level jet winds are located near the border of the Dakotas or perhaps a bit further north into eastern North Dakota.
High temperatures this afternoon will likely not reach the lower 50s due to this morning's cloud cover and some mid-level clouds moving through the afternoon. The stratus deck will help to limit radiational cooling and temperatures are expected to stay above freezing generally south of the Missouri River. Locations further north should remain fairly clear and will see overnight temperatures fall back into the lower 30s with widespread frost. Warmer temperatures return Sunday afternoon despite some cloud cover. The upper-level ridge will build over the central conus in response to a split flow pattern in which the southern stream trough digging southward along the West Coast and northern stream trough working across the western Canadian provinces. The northern stream trough will slowly translate into eastern Albert and Saskatchewan by mid-week.
855 PM EDT Sat Apr 4 2020 Weak high pressure from the Ohio Valley will remain in control through Sunday morning.
608 PM EDT Sat Apr 4 2020 Weak high pressure briefly builds into the region tonight, moving off shore Sunday. A weak cold front moves through Sunday night.
The low pressure system moving south along the west coast will bring warmer and breezy conditions to much of the area beginning this weekend.
630 PM CDT Sat Apr 4 2020 High pressure centered overhead has resulted in a sunny, but cool day. Through Sunday, this high will head into the Great Lakes, with return flow developing.
/issued 309 PM CDT Sat Apr 4 2020/ SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday night): A cold front has pushed to the coast with moderate northeast winds and a few lingering showers in its wake.
634 PM CDT Sat Apr 4 2020 A leeward trough will slowly strengthen tonight into Sunday with south winds continuing. The southerly flow will draw some low-level moisture into the area, with dew points rising into the lower to mid 40s Sunday. With the increase in low-level moisture lows will remain well above freezing Sunday night. An upper level low pressure system will slowly meander southeast just off the California coast early this coming week resulting in rain and mountain snow across the desert southwest. Meanwhile a potent upper low will track across Canada. As the upper low tracks across Canada it will send a strong cold front south through the region.
Quiet weather for the next several days as a rapidly weakening cold front carrying a few showers eases through the area this afternoon and tonight. Under full sun, temps rebound into the low to mid 50s by late afternoon.
This marks the location of a weak cold front which will slowly edge east tonight before stalling over the northern James River Valley Sunday. Weak cold frontal system in western North Dakota will steadily move east overnight. For tonight, we expect low pressure and an associated warm frontal boundary to move east from Montana through North Dakota. This will be the focus for small chances of rain and snow showers across south central North Dakota ahead of the warm front, and across north central North Dakota, along the trough axis of the low. On Sunday, a redeveloping lee side low pressure in Montana will quickly return a southerly flow of air into the region.
453 PM MDT Sat Apr 4 2020 Digging western CONUS trough is supporting downstream upper level ridging over the Northern Plains with SW mean flow developing. This has supported warmer conds, with many locations seeing temps in the 50s. Small theta-e ridge (evident at h7) will support widely ISOLD convection, which will begin as sfc based convection in WY, transitioning to elevated convection per sustained LLJ over scentral SD. Much warmer conds expected Sunday, with manly places see 60s for highs.
921 PM EDT Sat Apr 4 2020 Mid-level ridging was holding in place over the northwest Caribbean and Yucatan Peninsula, with strong westerly flow aloft. While the dry forecast for tonight remains highly confident, we will be watching winds closely as speeds run near the high side of the 5 to 10 mph range.
A more moderate airmass (in comparison to a few days ago) should result in night time lows in the lower 50s. Lingering rainfall should then diminish by Sun evening, as the front gradually moves more to the SE, with lows early Mon again trending in the lower/mid 50s. The sfc boundary will then double back to the north Mon as a warm front, leaving some weak synoptic lift in place across the area.
624 PM CDT Sat Apr 4 2020 High pressure moving slowly east through the region will bring quiet weather into Sunday night. VFR conditions are expected tonight into Sunday night across the area, as high pressure slowly moves east through the region. High pressure over nrn MN will move into nrn WI tnt, but still good radiational cooling conditions for srn WI. There will be some middle to high, thin clouds at times with low temps to drop just below freezing. High pressure will then slowly move across Lake MI and Lower MI through Sun nt.
High pressure to the northwest along with a stalled front trailing through the Gulf puts middle TN in a transition zone.
Forrester Previous Discussion: Overall, a dry weather regime will establish across the region next few days, as an upper level ridge takes control of the weather locally.
A weak cold front was moving slowly west to east across the Lower Ohio Valley this afternoon. Despite the passage of the front, temperatures will see little variation from today's readings, with morning lows in the mid 40s to around 50, and afternoon highs from the lower 60s north of the Ohio River to around 70 near the Tennessee line.
1123 PM CDT Sat Apr 4 2020 A leeward trough will slowly strengthen tonight into Sunday with south winds continuing. The southerly flow will draw some low-level moisture into the area, with dew points rising into the lower to mid 40s Sunday. With the increase in low-level moisture lows will remain well above freezing Sunday night. An upper level low pressure system will slowly meander southeast just off the California coast early this coming week resulting in rain and mountain snow across the desert southwest. Meanwhile a potent upper low will track across Canada. As the upper low tracks across Canada it will send a strong cold front south through the region.
400 AM CDT Sun Apr 5 2020 High pressure ridging south from the Great Lakes into the mid MS River Valley should bring generally rain-free conditions to the quad state region today. The ridge does seem fairly riddled with cloud cover though, so sunshine will likely be limited.
A few models have hinted at shower development this afternoon, especially along the Plateau, but without any lift to speak of and some ridging aloft, I've decided to keep the whole area dry today and temperatures should be close to or a degree warmer than yesterday.
Except for western Kentucky, cut high temperatures in most areas by a category, while the NAM guidance suggests temperatures could be even cooler. Went ahead and rain with slight chance mentionables this evening/overnight, when high pressure easing into Great Lakes slips a little drier air down the Wabash River, which should shut the pops off later tonight or early tmrw.
1126 PM CDT Sat Apr 4 2020 A leeward trough will slowly strengthen tonight into Sunday with south winds continuing. The southerly flow will draw some low-level moisture into the area, with dew points rising into the lower to mid 40s Sunday. With the increase in low-level moisture lows will remain well above freezing Sunday night. An upper level low pressure system will slowly meander southeast just off the California coast early this coming week resulting in rain and mountain snow across the desert southwest. Meanwhile a potent upper low will track across Canada. As the upper low tracks across Canada it will send a strong cold front south through the region.
1017 PM CDT Sat Apr 4 2020 Wx map shows weak high pressure ridging across the midwest to the Gulf, a trough of low pressure over the Western Gulf, producing a tightening pressure gradient across the coastal waters. A building but relatively flat ridge aloft will yield a warming trend with MON-WED, though an active sub-tropical jet will keep some measure of rain chances in the forecast as well, especially MON and TUE. Next cold front slated to arrive in the THU-THU night time period bringing good rain chances and cooler temperatures, though differences in how global models handle a WRN CONUS upper low cloud the picture a bit for FRI and SAT.
/issued 1017 PM CDT Sat Apr 4 2020/ Wx map shows weak high pressure ridging across the midwest to the Gulf, a trough of low pressure over the Western Gulf, producing a tightening pressure gradient across the coastal waters. A building but relatively flat ridge aloft will yield a warming trend with MON-WED, though an active sub-tropical jet will keep some measure of rain chances in the forecast as well, especially MON and TUE. Next cold front slated to arrive in the THU-THU night time period bringing good rain chances and cooler temperatures, though differences in how global models handle a WRN CONUS upper low cloud the picture a bit for FRI and SAT.
305 AM CDT Sun Apr 5 2020 Morning fog and chill will give way to much warmer conditions this afternoon. A large, cut- off upper low currently along the West Coast will move slowly east this week keeping our region in southwesterly flow aloft. Ahead of the upper low, temperatures will remain well above normal each afternoon.
A dry pattern will continue today and tonight as ridging aloft slowly builds across the Central Plains during the period.
This is the result of a stalled frontal boundary stretched across the region, eventually expected to begin lifting back northward as a warm front late tonight through Sunday. The frontal boundary is expected to become more diffuse through Sunday before eventually lifting back northward as a warm front late in the day and especially overnight. Highs should generally average near 70 degrees, slightly warmer across our southern zones and a bit cooler farther north.
Given north to northwesterly flow at the surface and through the lower/mid levels, dry air will remain in place making for a fairly pleasant day across the region.
Broad, low-amplitude upper ridging will persist over the central CONUS early in the work week with warm air advection ongoing.
123 AM EDT Sun Apr 5 2020 Weak high pressure briefly builds into the region tonight, moving off shore Sunday. A weak cold front moves through Sunday night.
1049 PM MDT Sat Apr 4 2020 Digging western CONUS trough is supporting downstream upper level ridging over the Northern Plains with SW mean flow developing. This has supported warmer conds, with many locations seeing temps in the 50s. Small theta-e ridge (evident at h7) will support widely ISOLD convection, which will begin as sfc based convection in WY, transitioning to elevated convection per sustained LLJ over scentral SD. Much warmer conds expected Sunday, with manly places see 60s for highs.
256 AM CDT Sun Apr 5 2020 The high temperature forecast for Today is highly dependent on the cloud cover.
That trough will move east of the area later today with ridging and drier air filtering in behind the trough. Highs today will be in the lower 80s with lows tonight in the upper 50s.
This will result in an influx of low level moisture with dewpoint temperatures progged to rise into the lower 50s late in the period.
229 AM CDT Sun Apr 5 2020 High pressure shifting through the Great Lakes, will bring dry conditions and more seasonable temperatures today.
1040 PM CDT Sat Apr 4 2020 High pressure centered overhead has resulted in a sunny, but cool day. Through Sunday, this high will head into the Great Lakes, with return flow developing.
443 AM EDT Sun Apr 5 2020 While weak upper level ridging will continue much of the Gulf coast states, a weak short wave will move across northeast portions of the Gulf of Mexico through late this afternoon, bringing a slight chance of showers across southern portions of central Georgia today.
The lower cloud axis may settle south into parts of KY this morning, with mid clouds persisting as well. High temps this afternoon should range from the lower 60s in southern IN given more/lower clouds to around 70/lower 70s in south-central KY where more afternoon sun is expected.
341 AM CDT Sun Apr 5 2020 Weak ridging aloft accompanied by southerly boundary layer flow will facilitate warmer than normal temperatures through the start of the week. Highs today will reach the low to mid 50s in most locations, with increasing clouds tonight holding lows above freezing.
Temperatures will continue to warm into the first part of the week before a strong cold front at midweek brings back below normal conditions in the latter half of the week.
Clouds will begin to increase from the west later tonight, but otherwise light winds and limited clouds will allow temps to drop to around the freezing mark again.
Confidence is high for the lower cigs with lower confidence of timing of improving flight categories. /issued 309 PM CDT Sat Apr 4 2020/ SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday night): A cold front has pushed to the coast with moderate northeast winds and a few lingering showers in its wake.
Dry weather with continued above normal temperatures are then expected for the remainder of the near term over the entire forecast area as the subtropical ridge re-intensifies over the Lower MS Valley region.
Forecast challenges include temperature differential on Sunday with a frontal boundary part-way through the CWA, along with fog potential tonight out west within this surface trof/frontal boundary (where ever it ends up being by morning). Dry tonight and Sunday, while a cold front tries to work in to the far western/northwestern forecast zones overnight before stalling out over the CWA on Sunday. Behind this frontal boundary, daytime high temperatures on Sunday will probably be a few degrees cooler than places to the south and east of the boundary. Sunday night, staring into an almost summer-like low level jet pattern progged by the models, in tandem with this stalled frontal boundary/pseudo warm-front, where the nose of the low level jet winds are located near the border of the Dakotas or perhaps a bit further north into eastern North Dakota.
A weak cold front has become hard to pick out in observations as winds have shifted from the North as far South as Interstate 20 yet temperatures remain in the low 60s at Tupelo, MS with dew points in the middle 50s. The main influencing factor on our weather today and tomorrow will be a broad, strengthening ridge slowly building in from the West.
Most of the snow has been in the mountains and over mountain passes, while valleys have been mostly dry since it has taken a while to moisten up the low levels of the atmosphere.
A weak ridge of high pressure will extend from the Great Lakes to the Ozarks today and with limited potential for mixing, a low overcast should remain in place. We will get some thinning of the clouds later today/tonight with a ridge aloft/subsidence trying to thin the clouds from the top.
309 AM EDT Sun Apr 5 2020 Weak cold front crosses today. A weak cold front with little upper air support will move across the region today. Scattered showers are possible today and tonight along and behind the cold front, but chances at any one location are not that great.