Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
421 AM MDT Sun Aug 6 2017 Moist and cooler air continues to filter into northeast Colorado in a series of pressure surges and outflow boundaries. We've been waiting for the low/mid clouds to fill in but moisture in the lowest 6-8 thousand feet continues to be a bit overdone in the models. With the cooler temperatures, instability should be a bit less than yesterday, though there may be someplace with the moisture that stays sunny enough to get up to 1000 J/kg of CAPE and could have a marginally severe storm.
, beneath a large ridge over the Pacific Northwest. The PACNW ridge will block any major storm threats over the western CONUS during this timeframe.
High pressure will move offshore later today. A warm front will lift through parts of the area late tonight into Monday followed by a cold front Monday night. High pressure builds over the area during the middle of the week.
400 AM EDT Sun Aug 6 2017 An area of low pressure will track northeast across the Ohio Valley Monday.
326 AM PDT Sun Aug 6 2017 A weak low pressure system off the California coast will bring drier southwest flow aloft through much of the week with near seasonal high temperatures.
A mean ridge will be positioned southwest of us and west-northwesterly flow aloft will continue with small perturbations moving through bringing daily chances of thunderstorms.
Weak high pressure prevails across the area tonight, with partly cloudy skies and temps in the upper 50s to lower 60s.
Based on persistence and latest model guidance, have the highest confidence in IFR restrictions at DHN, ABY, and VLD. Currently show MVFR visibilities at TLH and ECP due to the lower confidence. The highest confidence for storms today is at ECP, TLH, and ABY and this may expand to DHN by the 18z issuance. The trough at upper levels responsible for the periods of widespread torrential rainfall over the past several days will have lifted out of the region by Sunday morning, allowing deep layer high pressure to begin building back into the region from the east. Less cloud cover will also yield more typical summertime temperatures, as afternoon highs will rebound into the upper 80s and lower 90s, with lows in the low to mid 70s.
Shower chances will linger across the area Sunday evening but as the upper wave starts to shift away from the Midwest late Sunday night, the higher rain threat will shift into eastern Illinois after Midnight.
650 AM EDT Sun Aug 6 2017 A quasi-stationary cold front across southern NC will return north was a warm front today.
The overall trend of troughing across the NERN CONUS and a dome of high pressure over NWRN MX/SWRN CONUS will continue.
257 AM CDT Sun Aug 6 2017 Today, in advance of a cold front surface based destabilization will result in LI's to around -5 to -6 across the PB with CAPES around 1500 J/KG. NW flow is weak and an identifiable shrtwv trof is lacking. Wed-Sat will be down days wrt convective potential as upper ridging increases and high temps warm back to above normal Thur-Sat.
Some areas may come in a few degrees cooler than currently forecast. During the day today, the low pressure center will continue to move to the east and will take the rain with it.
Dry weather will remain across Central Indiana tonight as high pressure exits the area. Low Pressure over the Central Plains will push a warm front the Ohio valley On Sunday and Sunday Night. The low will exit the area on Monday morning.
113 AM EDT Sun Aug 6 2017 A cold front will move through the area tonight with shower and thunderstorms expected this evening.
Overnight lows expected to be in the lower to mid 70s. Broad upper trough will remain west of the region today with west-southwesterly flow aloft across the area. The frontal boundary stalled in the western portion of the forecast area will retreat northward today as a warm front. High resolution models show isolated to scattered convection developing during the afternoon with the highest coverage southeast. Tonight, the weak frontal boundary that had stalled out over the area will be moving northward ahead of another approaching cold front. The cold front will push towards the region through the day on Monday. The cold front will slow Monday night, but will still be moving southward through the night. The frontal boundary remains stalled west of the TAF sites this morning and is expected to retreat to the north as a warm front later today.
This will begin to change in the afternoon as low pressure moves east across the Ozarks and the SW 850 mb flow advects higher theta-e air into the area. A surface warm front will be spreading northward into the area by the evening, so southern areas appear favored for afternoon and evening showers and storms.
A series of weak impulses move through the area this morning then the main trough axis moves in this afternoon into early this evening.
120 AM EDT Sun Aug 6 2017 A quasi-stationary cold front across southern NC south will return north was a warm front today.
Overnight, Low pressure rides along the system's main stem boundary, and the GFS models the main pcpn field shifting to the south and east of the FA by 12Z Monday. There could be some diurnal flare up Monday, as energy ripples thru the base of the mean trof aloft, so we'll likely leave the inherited small pop south and east, tapering off to the north and west/behind the main system/stem boundary. Depending on the model solution, our region may be dry, or rather wet, through mid week as an inverted sfc trof develops across our region.
Upper low off the northern California coast has transported moisture and cloudiness into southern and central Oregon this afternoon and evening. The upper low will drift into California Sunday.
Cold front will move through the region tomorrow afternoon switching the winds to the northeast. A weak cold front is still on schedule to drop into the South Plains during the day Sunday.
127 AM EDT Sun Aug 6 2017 Crossing low pressure will return rain to the region tonight and Monday. For Sunday, sub-average temperature will be maintained under upper troughing and a continued cloud increase.
A deep vertically stacked anti-cyclone has become well established over cntrl/srn Sonora this morning with blocked upstream flow ensuring abnormally strong westerly winds above the H7 level will be maintained for at least the first half of this week. In the near term, H5 heights only breaching 590dm (despite the corresponding record thermal ridge) and reasonable low level thicknesses will result in the less likely monsoon season outcome of completely dry weather with near normal temperatures today and Monday. As the week progresses, the center of the subtropical anti-cyclone will slowly migrate north towards far SE Arizona while central H5 heights build to near 594dm. While there is excellent model agreement regarding the synoptic pattern, numerical output still varies widely though have generally trended this forecast towards the warmer guidance members.
With flow aloft veering slightly to the west-northwest, embedded disturbances moving across the region and the cold front to our north finally impinging on northern zones by late tonight/early tomorrow morning /where it then becomes quasi-stationary/, will make for the start of a wet forecast.
256 AM EDT Sun Aug 6 2017 Upper air pattern consists of a broad 500 mb trough across most of the U. The northwest flow from the persistent trough across Hudson Bay will begin to shift east Wed, with another boundary trying to slide south late Tue ngt/Wed and could bring a small chance for showers.
221 AM EDT Sun Aug 6 2017 A quasi-stationary cold front across southern NC south will return north was a warm front today.
201 AM PDT Sun Aug 6 2017 Wildfire smoke from fires in British Columbia and Montana trapped under an area of high pressure will persist over Eastern Washington and North Idaho, otherwise dry conditions will linger through much of the upcoming week. The region remains in northwest flow and a Rex Block, with a ridge near the Pacific Northwest coast and low pressure over northern California.
Starting around 4 pm, expecting scattered thunderstorms to develop along a prefrontal trough, mainly south and east of Dodge City. Cold frontal passage expected tonight, with winds becoming N/NE across all of SW KS during the late evening. Lows Sunday morning in the lower to mid 60s. Cloudy (in the morning) and noticeably cooler. Given the expected afternoon August sunshine, ignored the cooler MET/NAM guidance, and followed the warmer MAV guidance, with afternoon temperatures ranging from near 80 NE (Hays) to the mid 80s along the Oklahoma border.
A cold front will begin to edge into the area at the end of the forecast period, accompanied by a NE wind shift, however timing will be refined in later issuances.
Broad sfc ridging will build ewd from the plains as upper flow flattens to wrly.
With the clouds also preferred a blend of cooler non biased corrected MOS and SREF. Feeling is that any substantial midlevel deformation along the northern flank of the midlevel cyclone will remain out of the cwa to the south. Models are in agreement a significant upper level trough axis will dig across the western and central Great Lakes on Monday. Orientation of the geopotential height field suggests it will be very difficult to advect any significant theta e ridge or warm advection ahead of the trough.
Overnight lows expected to be in the lower to mid 70s. Broad upper trough will remain west of the region today with west-southwesterly flow aloft across the area. The frontal boundary stalled in the western portion of the forecast area will retreat northward today as a warm front. High resolution models show isolated to scattered convection developing during the afternoon with the highest coverage southeast. The frontal boundary remains stalled west of the TAF sites this morning and is expected to retreat to the north as a warm front later today.
in the upper 80s/low 90s apart from cooler temps in the higher terrain. Lows a bit cooler tonight, but as the southerly flow increases, expect warmer low temps by Sunday night. Regional radar shows scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms developing in the vicinity of the trough, well within the tropical-like airmass. The weak trough is expected to slowly sag south today. As in the past few days, with light BL winds and PWATS south of the trough 2"+, storms will be capable of producing very heavy rainfall.
Cloud cover will keep overnight lows from plummeting, though a cooler air mass will still send temps into the 50s. Temperatures will remain on the cooler side of seasonal norms as well.
Overnight, Low pressure rides along the system's main stem boundary, and the GFS models the main pcpn field shifting to the south and east of the FA by 12Z Monday. There could be some diurnal flare up Monday, as energy ripples thru the base of the mean trof aloft, so we'll likely leave the inherited small pop south and east, tapering off to the north and west/behind the main system/stem boundary.
Weak upper trough over the western Gulf may further enhance activity.
For Sunday, an upper level TROF will move south into the main upper level TROF that will be lifting northeast Sunday night.
339 AM CDT Sun Aug 6 2017 The next several days will see several rounds of showers and thunderstorms as a broad upper level trough remains nearly stationary over the northern tier states. On Sunday, a warm front will lift across the area and a disturbance will approach from the northwest.
Tonight Through Monday The cold front that moved through the state on Fri is now lifting back north as a warm front this afternoon. to the higher 70s to the SW. A cold front will drift south into the state on Mon behind this upper wave.
423 AM MDT Sun Aug 6 2017 Surface cold front dropping southward through the plains early this morning, with boundary forecast to reach the NM border by late afternoon. Clouds/cold front/precip will bring cooler maxes to the astern mountains and plains today, while interior valleys and western mountains see little change.
658 AM EDT Sun Aug 6 2017 Precipitation chances will increase through today into Monday as a low pressure system moves east across the region. However, with very different solutions among the CAMS in the development and progression of the low and associated warm front, its appearing that the recent runs of the HRRR have the best representation, so leaning toward this solution through today. For tonight, the low will lift east/northeast through the mid Ohio valley with a warm frontal boundary lifting as far north as midway through the forecast area, and is expected to become the focus of ample rainfall. Potent low pressure carried by a westerly flow aloft will be moving across Ohio on Monday. Rain chances diminish by Monday afternoon as the low tracks rather quickly east toward the Atlantic Coast.
Monday looks a bit warmer in the forecast without the showers and thunderstorms, but the guidance is slow to clear the clouds out and the winds have a north/northeasterly component. but ridging over the west coast of the country keeps weak northwesterly flow over the Plains and the Rockies.
Will hang onto a chance rain mention this evening, then lower chances Monday as the trough axis slides through coupled with a weak cold front. Highs will hold slightly below normal much of the week, with highs hovering around 80 after cooler 70s Monday.
Surface front bisects the area from west to east, roughly along the I-20 corridor, where dewpoints are in the low 70s. To the north, dewpoints fall into the lower 60s across north Alabama. Models are in good agreement and indicate the southern edge mid-level westerlies will persist over the Deep South with a broad trough east of the Rockies.
Highs today are expected to mainly be in the lower to middle 70s. Rain chances will continue tonight as a mid level trough tracks through the region, but will end from north to south as high pressure and clearing skies advect in from the northwest. Lows tonight will range from the 40s across the north, to the lower to middle 50s across the south with lingering clouds for much of the night. High pressure building in across the area will keep the weather dry on Monday as daytime highs rise into the lower to middle 70s under light winds.
355 AM EDT Sun Aug 6 2017 High pressure building into the region will provide mainly dry but windy conditions to the area today, along with temperatures well below early August standards.
647 AM EDT Sun Aug 6 2017 An area of low pressure will track northeast across the Ohio Valley Monday.
245 AM MDT Sun Aug 6 2017 Current surface analysis shows low pressure over central KS, with frontal boundary south and west of the region.
Satellite showing a low pressure system approaching the coast of northern California this morning. Radar is showing a few weak echo in southern Harney and Malheur counties but given the low humidities in that area it likely these cells are producing virga. Upper level ridge over the forecast area today will limit instability to along the Nevada border. The better chance for thunderstorms will be Monday afternoon as the low pressure system reaches the Intermountain West. It does weaken significantly by then so thunderstorms potential will be limited to the higher terrain. This system will do little to improve the smoke and haze across the region as the upper level ridge remains over the Pacific Northwest.
1112 PM MDT Sat Aug 5 2017 Upper level analysis has broad trof across the northern CONUS with weak cyclonic flow over the northern Plains. At the surface, weak Canadian high pressure has settled across the northern Plains, with a stationary boundary wedged against the east flank of the Rockies. Potential for severe weather later on Sunday looks minimal at this point, with less instability, good deal of clouds, and slightly cooler temps.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms expected over the coming days which will also help bring slightly cooler temps. With ridge axis shifting slightly east and weak upper-level circulation slowly trying to meander into northern NV, expect monsoonal moisture to creep farther north and east today and tomorrow. Expect cooler temps near normal for this time of year with highs generally in the 80s with lows generally in the 50s.
Most noteworthy items still include thunderstorm chances each day through the entire forecast package, as well as below normal temperatures beginning today behind a cold front. The passage of the cold front early this morning has brought northerly winds around 15 mph gusting to around 20-25 mph.
The highest confidence for storms today is at ECP, TLH, and ABY and this may expand to DHN by the 18z issuance. A broad, low amplitude trough will continue to cover much of the CONUS today, with a flat east/west deep layer ridge prevailing locally. Typical summertime wet microburst forecast parameters appear on the low end of what would be expected for severe thunderstorms.
A broad trough across the eastern part of the country continues to deamplify, with flow becoming nearly zonal across much of Florida as an area of high pressure extends south and east of the state. At the surface, high pressure remains over the western Atlantic Ocean, with its axis extending across the central part of the peninsula. Some drier air will move over the region for today, so overall shower and thunderstorm coverage should be lower and currently have the best chances across the southern third of the CWA where the highest moisture will reside.
Meanwhile, an upper level low west of Pt Arena will bring a risk for thunderstorms Sunday through mid week. Given this trend and that the low off the coast gradually moves eastward expect some gloomy days with little sunshine along the coast upcoming with generally low ceilings. Ocean conditions are expected to remain relatively static over the next several days thanks to a weak low pressure system that will linger directly overhead northwest California.
Island communities have been spared of any liquid precipitation so far, but a few of these showers may skirt across the Lower Keys over the next couple of hours.
High pressure centered over the western Great Basin will slowly break down today through Monday with increased thunderstorm activity expected across northern and central Utah.
Will show increasing PoPs in the 06z- 12z hours tonight to account for this with the highest PoPs at 50 percent. The convective boundary is then shown by some of the high-res models to be in our CWA Monday afternoon and if this were to occur we should see a fairly high coverage of showers and storms along this feature. Cloud cover today will likely keep high temperatures a few degrees cooler than yesterday with additional cooling expected Monday with the increasing chances of rain.
High pressure aloft will remain over the region this week, and warm weather will continue across Western Washington. An upper level ridge remains offshore of the Pacific Northwest just inside 130W early this morning, with light northerly flow aloft over Western Washington. Marine stratus covers the Washington coast, and by 3 am it had moved down the Strait of Juan de Fuca to around Port Angeles and into the lower Chehalis Valley. The upper ridge will move slowly eastward toward the coast today, and weak northerly low level onshore flow will continue.
As a weak cold front approaches our northern counties today, showers and thunderstorms may develop across mainly our northern Big Country counties.
329 AM CDT Sun Aug 6 2017 Low pressure over the southeast Plains will move across southern Missouri today. Low level moisture convergence will continue over the area ahead of the low today.
An upper level trough over the region will continue to provide cooler than average temperatures today along with isolated to widely scattered showers, and perhaps a thunderstorm. Much of the CWA can expect to see daytime highs reaching the low 80s, still a few degrees below seasonal averages. Northwest flow aloft will continue to prevail most of the time through the week with an upper ridge on the Pacific Coast and an upper trough/low to the east.
These smoky conditions will keep us from reaching our full temperature potential each day, but with such a strong ridge along the west coast temperatures should still be near to slightly above normal for this time of year.
Convection over southern MO this afternoon is associated with a low- level warm front, located on the nose of a 30-35 kt LLJ. A weaker LLJ, around 20-25 kts, is forecast to nose into central KY/southern IN Sunday afternoon and evening as the sfc warm front lifts into the area. Some hi-res models continue to hint at isolated to widely scattered precip arriving in our counties west of I-65 as early as mid to late morning, but any lingering activity will be battling a substantial amount of dry air in the lowest 10 kft. Upper trough digs ESE through the Great Lakes, forcing low-level frontal boundary and associated convection further south and southeast. Lows will likely be in the low/mid 60s.
Northwest flow aloft dominates the period with one short wave trough and their associated surface cool front after another dropping out of Canada and across our region.
Temperatures have cooled into the 60s, with stratus moving in with easterly flow in the lower levels. Winds remain light into the overnight hours with lows falling into the lower 60s.
Upper ridge over northern Saskatchewan with northerly flow aloft and at the sfc into E ND/NW MN today and with it a bit more stable airmass.
In the morning, high pressure is in control and after the fog burns off by about 14Z, should be a mostly sunny to partly cloudy sky. In the afternoon, a short wave trof is dropping south through Ontario, while another is moving through eastern South Dakota and southern Minnesota. High pressure will build into the Northland Sunday evening through Monday. Good agreement between the GFS/ECMWF/CMC with the 500 hPa ridge axis building in from central Canada.
This energy's southward extent of movement will be limited by an upper ridge stretching west over the northern Gulf of Mexico getting a northward nudge by a combination of a tropical system moving west over the southern Caribbean towards the Yucatan and another system starting to move over the eastern Caribbean. Lows ranging from the low to mid 70s inland, upper 70s along the immediate coast.
The possibility still exists for convection associated with weak trough and daytime heating/sea breeze. Scattered convection was over northeast Mexico ahead of a weak short wave trough near the Big Bend region. Mid and high level clouds will increase over the region in advance of this short wave trough and associated convection this evening into the overnight hours. Isolated to scattered convection is expected to form in advance of the short wave trough moving into South Texas Sunday mainly over the coastal plains.
Water vapor imagery showing the upper low lifting over southern Minnesota this morning. as the upper low lifts northeast we expect some wraparound light rain/showers over the area. Clouds will gradually break some to the west overnight but should hold firm as a weak extension of the upper trough swings slowly southeast.
655 AM EDT Sun May 21 2017 Showers and thunderstorms will affect the region one more day as a cold front moves east through the region today. High pressure will build in for the beginning of the week offering drier and cooler conditions. Highs today will be in the lower to mid 70s. Temperatures will cool to the lower 50s in the west to mid 50s in the extreme ern counties. High pressure will build across the fa Monday bringing dry weather and cooler temperatures. Highs will reach only the lower 70s, with a few spots staying in the upper 60s.
1131 PM MDT Sat May 20 2017 At 2 pm, winds are generally light across the CWA, except in the Kansas border counties where northwest winds have been gusting over 20 mph closer to the low pressure system surface and aloft. In northern El Paso County, temperatures are forecast to be around freezing, but the duration should be short-lived. Low temperatures will be in the 20s to lower 30s across the high valleys and mountains.