Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Upper level ridging will persist over the plains. A trough of low pressure and resultant south winds are expected to continue due to downslope mid level flow across the northern high plains, inducing a pressure trough extending as far south as western Kansas. Upper level ridging will generally continue over the southern plains through 26 June and probably through the end of the month.
1017 PM EDT Fri Jun 17 2022 Cooler than normal temperatures with very comfortable daytime humidity is expected right through the weekend under strong high pressure.
The omega block ridge will keep unseasonably warm temperatures across the region today and tomorrow. Perhaps a few degrees cooler, particularly across the west, and RHs will be a bit wetter, but only by a few percentage points. The trough to the west will make its way eastward Saturday, which will help to increase cloud cover and decrease temps, mainly across the west.
A trough will be over the area through Saturday for cooler weather and showers.
Northwest winds were gusting to 20 to 30 mph as temperatures warmed into the lower to middle 70s north to the lower 80s south. For tonight, a backdoor cold front will drop south across the area. The cold front will bring a wind shift to the north or northeast and cooler temperatures for Saturday.
1020 PM EDT Fri Jun 17 2022 Update The cold front was dropping southward through the region this evening and was now pushing through the I94 corridor.
357 PM MDT Fri Jun 17 2022 Temperatures gradually cool down going into the weekend as an upper level low pressure system approaches from the west. Drier and warmer conditions then return by mid-week. An upper level low along the Pacific coast continues to bring deep southerly flow aloft, advecting much warmer air into the region. The High Wind Warning will be allowed to run through it's expiration time since gusts are running in the 40 to 60 mph range. The Pacific trough edges closer on Saturday with deep southerly flow aloft continuing. Winds over the southwest look to be less impressive than today, so I decided to cancel the High Wind Watch.
A low system to the north will move into southern California bringing clouds, gusty winds and cooler temperatures today and Saturday.
435 PM MDT Fri Jun 17 2022 Large upper ridge remains across the central CONUS, while a upper low sits over the Pac NW coast. The ridge axis is slowly moving eastward of the CA, with south/southwest flow increasing across the northern High Plains. Thermal ridge over the Intermountain Region is sliding eastward into the CWA. On Saturday, the thermal ridge will move into the CWA, bringing highs in the 90s to lower 100s.
NBM looks a little warmer in comparing deterministic model temperatures and guidance, so trended slight less than 50 percentile NBM. Heat indices in the low 100s expected Saturday for all areas except portions of west-central Iowa.
732 PM EDT Fri Jun 17 2022 Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb trough on the west coast and another over the lower Great Lakes with a ridge across the south and southeast which pokes up into the northern plains. The ridge in the northern plains builds northward tonight as the eastern trough moves into New England. An amplified upper level pattern will be in place at 12z Saturday with a +2 standard deviation ridge across the Northern Plains and a -2. 5 standard deviation trough on each coast.
/issued 216 PM CDT Fri Jun 17 2022/ The center of an upper ridge will meander around the mid-Mississippi River valley through tomorrow. A slug of moisture currently over Louisiana today will rotate around the ridge into North Texas tonight and then into Northwest Texas and the Rolling Plains on Saturday.
One feature to watch will be a secondary cold front that will rotate southwards through the region tonight.
719 PM EDT Fri Jun 17 2022 Cooler than normal temperatures with very comfortable daytime humidity is expected right through the weekend under strong high pressure.
Thanks to earlier storms and the shifting of the big upper ridge toward the west, things are improving.
Temperatures are 1-3 C cooler on Saturday compared to this afternoon's readings.
607 PM CDT Fri Jun 17 2022 An upper level high will remain over the central CONUS this weekend, with upper troughing over the western states and eastern CONUS.
Very warm this evening as temperatures however in the low to mid 80s, then drop down to the upper 70s well after midnight. A weak mid level trough over the Atlantic will slide southward sending a frontal boundary southward across the peninsula which will stall over Florida later into the weekend. On top of the threat for strong storms will be much higher than normal temperatures; adding in the higher dewpoints will lead to an oppressive heat tomorrow. One of the limiting factors in the higher temperatures will be the arrival of showers and thunderstorms, but initiation could just miss the timing of peak heating tomorrow.
632 PM CDT Fri Jun 17 2022 As high pressure remains in control of the area weather, VFR conditions will prevail through the period with winds generally less than 10 knots during the day and calm or light/variable overnight. /issued 354 PM CDT Fri Jun 17 2022/ Upper pattern is quite a bit more amplified than it was 24 hours ago, with upper ridge axis centered over eastern Oklahoma/Kansas and upper trough axes near both coasts. At the surface, high pressure extended along much of the Mississippi River Valley.
902 PM CDT Fri Jun 17 2022 Cooler and drier conditions are anticipated for the weekend, with high temperatures near normal for mid-June.
This will lead to increasing chances for showers and isolated thunderstorms and cooler temperatures.
Deep trough over the west coast is producing deep southerly flow aloft into the region.
A cold front will settle south of the region Saturday, ushering in dry high pressure which should give us a break from the storms for a few days at least, and a pleasantly cooler weekend. There is still upstream vorticity and an approaching cold front, but the airmass should be sufficiently worked over to preclude any further severe across the mountains or the NC foothills. Post-frontal regime gets underway on Saturday as the leading edge of broad high pressure builds in from the Great Lakes region.
512 PM EDT Fri Jun 17 2022 Cooler than normal temperatures with very comfortable daytime humidity is expected right through the weekend under strong high pressure.
Not only will afternoon temperatures be nearly 15 degrees cooler than the last several days, but around 5 degrees cooler than normal with highs in the upper 70s to low 60s. Lows by tomorrow morning will be in the low/mid 50s with some of our more urban areas staying near 60 degrees.
Quiet and mild across the region tonight, with temperatures as of 3 AM holding in the mid to upper 70s as upper level ridging remained planted over the central CONUS. Said boundary will gradually push eastward as a warm front today, reaching the Missouri River Valley by early this evening. While this means the warmest air (highs in the lower 100s) in the region should stay just west of the forecast area, NAEFS guidance suggests 850 mb temperatures have no trouble reaching the 90th percentile of climatology in much of the area, which should easily translate to highs in the 90s area- wide, with upper 90s for many.
1147 PM CDT Fri Jun 17 2022 Cooler and drier conditions are anticipated for the weekend, with high temperatures near normal for mid-June.
1122 PM EDT Fri Jun 17 2022 Cooler than normal temperatures with very comfortable daytime humidity is expected right through the weekend under strong high pressure.
342 AM EDT Sat Jun 18 2022 Cooler and less humid weather will be in store for today.
1136 PM EDT Fri Jun 17 2022 Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb trough on the west coast and another over the lower Great Lakes with a ridge across the south and southeast which pokes up into the northern plains. The ridge in the northern plains builds northward tonight as the eastern trough moves into New England. An amplified upper level pattern will be in place at 12z Saturday with a +2 standard deviation ridge across the Northern Plains and a -2. 5 standard deviation trough on each coast.
Tomorrow looks VFR with little convection as mid-level ridging is progged to strengthen. A weakness in the mid-to-upper level high pressure ridge has allowed storms to develop and increase in coverage across much of the area this afternoon. Tomorrow and Sunday, afternoon storms will be possible but not likely as high pressure is able to build back into the region.
Strong subtropical midlevel anticyclone near 593 dm was centered over eastern Kansas at midnight. The upper high will be parked near Kansas City through Saturday, delivering yet another sunny, hot, windy day.
(Today) A subtle weakness in the upper ridge, along with a weak backdoor front will likely lead to isolated to scattered thunderstorms this afternoon. Initial development should be near the higher terrain of W AR and far E OK, with modest amount of organization into west moving clusters possible through early evening.
NBM looks a little warmer in comparing deterministic model temperatures and guidance, so trended slight less than 50 percentile NBM. Heat indices in the low 100s expected Saturday for all areas except portions of west-central Iowa. Warmer temperatures expected Sunday with southwesterly flow and downslope playing a role.
137 AM MDT Sat Jun 18 2022 Upper ridge currently sits over the central CONUS, while at the surface, low pressure sits over the WY/NE border. The heat continues Sunday, though slightly cooler than today, with only Todd and Mellette counties continuing a heat advisory.
Some isolated showers could occur along the sea breeze as well, however, the influence of the high pressure in the Gulf waters may be enough to suppress their development and may just result in cloud coverage. High temperatures today will be in the upper 90s with some northern counties reaching 100 while the coastal areas will be in the low to mid 90s. The low temperatures for both tonight and Sunday night will generally be in the mid to upper 70s inland and in the low 80s along the coasts. Though dewpoints have been mixing out well these past few afternoons and keeping heat indicies mainly in the low 100s, it may not be enough on Sunday to keep some areas out of a Heat Advisory.
South Florida sits on the periphery of deep-layer high pressure centered over the south central United States and a boundary associated with an area of low pressure centered over eastern Canada. As the high retreats westward and the boundary slides south across the peninsula, moisture will increase along with shower and thunderstorm chances. Focusing back on Saturday, the warm, moist surface air combined with cooler air aloft (500 mb temps of -9 to -8 deg C) behind an upper level low will likely allow for some more vigorous thunderstorm activity today. While slightly warmer temperatures aloft could lead to less favorable lapse rates compared to Saturday, gusty winds and torrential rainfall still remain concerns with Sunday's storms.
1254 AM EDT Sat Jun 18 2022 A cold front will cross the region overnight.
McD Chattanooga Airport, TN 89 62 88 63 94 / 0 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 84 58 85 60 91 / 0 0 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 84 58 85 60 91 / 0 0 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 79 50 81 54 86 / 0 0 0 0 0.
A large ridge of high pressure is in full control over the central US with an upper trough moving across the northeastern United States. Even with that relief it might not be enough and most of the area will likely exceed heat advisory criteria and could approach excessive heat warning criteria especially along the coast where low level moisture will keep dewpoints in the low 70s leading to heat indices in the 110 to 112 range. The ridge will slowly slide east on Sunday as the boundary pushes offshore. Temperatures will still likely climb into the mid to upper 90s but with dewpoints in the low 60s heat indices will "only" be in the upper 90s. Storms will not be an issue on Sunday as the subsidence from the ridge and drier surface moisture will keep storms from developing.
1155 PM CDT Fri Jun 17 2022 As high pressure remains in control of the area weather, VFR conditions will prevail through the period with winds generally less than 10 knots during the day and calm or light/variable overnight. /issued 354 PM CDT Fri Jun 17 2022/ Upper pattern is quite a bit more amplified than it was 24 hours ago, with upper ridge axis centered over eastern Oklahoma/Kansas and upper trough axes near both coasts. At the surface, high pressure extended along much of the Mississippi River Valley.
1220 AM EDT Sat Jun 18 2022 Cooler and drier conditions continue tonight and Saturday with Saturday being even cooler than today.
1237 AM EDT Sat Jun 18 2022 A cold front will cross the region from the north tonight and settle south of the area on Saturday, ushering in dry high pressure and a pleasantly cooler weekend. The latest surface analysis shows a cold front settling southward through the Ohio Valley and into the Mid-Atlantic. The cold front will settle well south of the area on Saturday. The leading edge of broad high pressure will build in from the Great Lakes region.
327 AM EDT Sat Jun 18 2022 High pressure will build across the area through Sunday.
Tonight through Sunday night Upper pattern across the CONUS this morning remains highly amplified with deep troughs along both the east and west coasts and the seemingly ever persistent, stout upper level high sitting over the central plains. Models are showing some short term relief on Sunday as a slightly drier and cooler air mass moves into the area. A weak backdoor cold front, and I use the term cold front loosely, is expected to move from the northeast to the southwest during the day today. Temperatures behind the boundary will be a few degrees cooler Sunday but the noticeable difference will be in the humidity.
Hopefully a good soaking of rain too along our next cold front tomorrow late. Once again it will be looking bleak for late month right under a newly formed upper ridge overhead.
An omega block pattern will set the stage for hot temperatures along with low level moisture pooling beneath the ridge. The highest heat indices will be along and west of I-29 where the highest dew points will be located. A similar hot, humid, and breezy day is in store for Sunday as the upper ridge shifts slightly further east. Otherwise, the highest moisture looks to pool over northwest Iowa on Sunday, yielding heat indices of 100-106 degrees.
Temperatures are 1-3 C cooler on Saturday compared to this afternoon's readings. High amplitude pattern developing across Colorado through Sunday evening with high pressure ridge aloft building across the central plains states while a strong low pressure area the Great Basin. The overall severe threat will be on the lower side with CAPE values generally 500-1000j/kg and unidirectional shear profile.
148 AM EDT Sat Jun 18 2022 Aviation The cold front was dropping southward through the region this evening and was now pushing through the I94 corridor.
Father's Day will be a bit warmer with highs close to normal, and just a small chance of a shower or thunderstorms in the north as a weak upper trough moves across Upper Michigan.
10" for Reno is 10%, and for the Tahoe Basin is 25%, so we have an opportunity to see some of the moisture in the northern Sierra to spillover to the lower valleys. Exiting clouds will work to filter sunshine and keep us cooler, but at least we won't have to contend with high winds. Breezes out of the north help the cooler air stick with us, with winds 10-15 mph expected.
(Today through Sunday afternoon) The best word to describe the current pattern is "persistence" with ridging across the central and southern plains locked in for the next few days. High temperatures will remain near to slightly above- normal with 90s across the region and triple-digits confined to the Lower RGV for both Sat/Sun.
130 AM EDT Sat Jun 18 2022 A cold front will cross the region from the north tonight and settle south of the area on Saturday, ushering in dry high pressure and a pleasantly cooler weekend. The latest surface analysis shows a cold front settling southward through the Ohio Valley and into the Mid-Atlantic. The cold front will settle well south of the area on Saturday. The leading edge of broad high pressure will build in from the Great Lakes region.
Upper ridging continues to prevail over the region, but a few diurnal storms have formed just north of the area this afternoon and are slowly moving southeast. A short wave will rotate around the upper high on Saturday and this will push a frontal boundary southwest across the area.
(Today and tonight) Sufficient moisture and slightly cooler mid level temperatures, associated with weakness in upper ridge (weak wave/PV anomaly over southeast Oklahoma evident on shorter wavelength water vapor imagery this morning) will likely result in isolated thunderstorm activity across southern Oklahoma and northern this afternoon and evening. With the additional cloud cover possible, afternoon high temperatures will be a few degrees cooler than yesterday at many locations. Lows tonight will once again fall into the lower and middle 70s at most locations.
440 AM EDT Sat Jun 18 2022 A cold front will move across the area this morning. High pressure will build into the region for the weekend.
High temps will range from the low 80s across SW IN to near 90 degrees in SE MO where the relief will be slower to arrive. Went with the latest NBM similar to MOS guidance which bumped nighttime lows slightly cooler in the mid to upper 50s. High temps on Sunday will be similar to Saturday while nighttime lows will be a few degrees warmer near 60 degrees.
Highs are forecast to be in the low to mid 90s with heat indices between 100-105 degrees. - Temperatures and heat indices will be slightly cooler this weekend, but still uncomfortable so caution still needs to be taken when outside. Those outside of the advisory should see heat indices in the low to mid 90s. An upper level ridge builds over the region this weekend keeping it fairly hot and humid. This will shift winds to the east-southeast and advect slightly cooler and slightly drier air into much of the forecast area. Along the stateline we should see the warmest temperatures and highest dew points for our area with highs in the low 90s and heat indices in the upper 90s to around 100. The main difference is our eastern counties will be slightly warmer.
233 AM EDT Sat Jun 18 2022 High pressure brings dry and cooler weather through the weekend.
245 AM EDT Sat Jun 18 2022 Cold front is working its way south across Eastern KY early this morning. At the upper levels, a large ridge from the deep south all the way up into central Canada will slowly work its way east this weekend. Temps will be several degrees warmer but still below seasonal norms ranging from the upper 70s to lower 80s. High pressure at the surface and aloft will dominate our weather through the bulk of the period.
252 AM CDT Sat Jun 18 2022 (Issued 252 AM CDT Sat Jun 18 2022) Today through Sunday: High pressure will build into the area from the north in the wake of a backdoor cold front that passed through the area yesterday evening. Highs near the lake are expected to be in the low to mid 60s, with mid 70s expected inland. The high very slowly pushes east on Sunday, with winds turning southerly and temperatures warming into the low 80s inland, with mid to upper 70s near the lake.
237 AM CDT Sat Jun 18 2022 Sub-tropical ridging persists across the region with a monsoonal fetch advecting northward over the Rocky Mountain range as a potent mid/upper-level cyclone digs into the Pacific Northwest. 700-300 mb winds near 10 kt) over the CWA as the center of the anticyclone remains parked over the middle Missouri River Valley. Increasing southwesterly flow aloft in advance of an upper low moving over the Great Basin will begin to decrease PWAT values and shift low rain chances eastward.
A strong Pacific trough will slowly move across Nevada the next two days. Cooler air will slowly spread eastward, except over eastern Nevada where strong gusty southerly winds will occur through Saturday. /ISSUED AT 312 PM / A strong Pacific trough will slowly move across Nevada the next two days. Cooler air will slowly spread eastward, except over eastern Nevada where strong gusty southerly winds will occur through Saturday. Cool amplified trough moving onshore with strong SSW gradient flow over Nevada. Trough makes slow eastward progress Saturday with the far eastern Nevada still in the warm sector. On the cooler side, gradient flow is lighter but the air mass remains dry except for the far northwest Nevada corner.
Southerly flow aloft will remain over the area through Saturday as an upper low to our west moves slowly eastward. Moisture and instability near the core of the low will lead to showers and thunderstorms. Showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected in eastern Oregon and the West Central Mountains as the low edges closer. Temperatures will be much cooler with highs in the 60s and 70s. A closed low along the coast will move inland overnight. Precipitation will increase in coverage across portions of SE Oregon, especially Harney county, on Saturday as the upper low pushes into central Oregon. For Sunday the precipitation threat shifts to the w-central Idaho mountains as the low center tracks to the ID/MT border.
High pressure will remain firmly in place over the eastern US and the Gulf of Mexico, keeping us dry. This will continue through the short term; however, a bit of an increase in moisture is possible beginning tonight as low pressure moves east across the northern US, increasing onshore flow.
A ridge is centered over KS/MO today and tonight. A trough is over the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic. At the surface, high pressure is centered near the Great Lakes, bringing northeasterly winds over the region. Temps will be much cooler with highs in the 80s in the Valley.
The Omega Block ridge will keep unseasonably warm temperatures across the region today and tomorrow. Perhaps a few degrees cooler, particularly across the west, and RHs will be a bit wetter, but only by a few percentage points. The trough to the west will make its way eastward Saturday, which will help to increase cloud cover and decrease temps, mainly across the west.
202 AM CDT Sat Jun 18 2022 High pressure centered north of the Minnesota Arrowhead, with ridging extending south into the Midwest, was providing quiet and comfortable night for eastern Iowa, northwest Illinois, and far northeast Missouri. [Key Messages] 1) Warm and dry through the weekend with high pressure in control [Discussion] High pressure will be the rule for the weekend, and will provide our area with dry conditions and clear skies.
Cloud cover will impact counties east of the Mississippi River with this ridge runner. TOMORROW: As the ridge builds into the Northern Plains today, an anomalous warm tongue advects north, bringing excessive heat to the Dakotas into central Minnesota. This higher theta e gradient advects east tonight into tomorrow, grazing our northwestern periphery.
A cold front pushing through the area this afternoon should help to initiate a few TSRA, especially for the southern half of the area. Early morning satellite imagery showed the circulation around a large 593dam high centered over the central CONUS and a broad upper level trough centered over the eastern seaboard. This upper level trough was helping support a weak and nearly diffuse cold front to our northeast that will sag into our CWA during prime heating as a backdoor cold front and help set off at least isolated storms. Drier air in the wake of the backdoor cold front will knock dew points down into the 60s tonight with mid to upper 50 dew points in our northeast by morning. This will help contribute to cooler than normal morning lows in the mid 60s across the northeast third of our CWA.
This will lead to increasing chances for showers and isolated thunderstorms and cooler temperatures. Today through Sunday Night: A closed low over SW Oregon will slowly migrate northeast, reaching SE WA Sunday morning.