Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Low pressure moving across Ontario will push a weak cold front through the cwa this afternoon through Tuesday.
Winds across the Midsouth were calm, or nearly so, under a 1022mb surface pressure ridge center. The elevated warm advection will connect to the surface on Monday, driving a warm front through.
1041 PM CST Sun Dec 4 2022 (Tonight through Monday night) The low clouds and patchy fog and drizzle have been persistent early this afternoon and have held temperatures in the 50s for most areas, except the Coastal Plains. The low clouds will gradually erode early afternoon across the Coastal Plains and Rio Grande, but will be slower to erode elsewhere through the I-35 corridor and Hill Country.
Snow has developed over the I84 corridor from Baker City to Mountain Home, along the leading edge of this trough. An upper low centered off the coast will continue to send moisture through our area tonight with valley rain/snow and mountain snow showers. The upper low will weaken and move inland on Monday, and may be close enough to our area for a chance of snow showers in far southern Harney County.
Upper level ridging will build east over the area sometime today.
Light flow and mainly dry weather across the area through today with the upper low slowly sliding south along the northern CA coast.
630 AM CST Mon Dec 5 2022 Short term models show a possibility of dense fog forming today as the warm front approaches the Mid-South from the south.
A low pressure system located over the North Coast this morning will continue to brings periods of rain showers and snow showers through Monday.
536 AM CST Mon Dec 5 2022 (Today through Tuesday) As expected the rainfall is developing to our west a touch more northward as the warm front is beginning to lift northward. As the day progresses and the warm front lifts northward the added lift will increase coverage and intensity of the showers through the afternoon. As the front pushes north and we see more of southerly flow south of the warm front, the instability should increase enough to generate a few embedded thunderstorms this evening and overnight, generally along and just ahead of the warm front. Did continue with a slight chance of thunder through Noon on Tuesday as the warm front exits the area. After Noon the instabilities shift westward closer to the cold front.
Currently the cold front has exited the CWA and continues to move southeast.
The low pressure system responsible for our active weather will move onshore and weaken on Tuesday. SFO Bridge Approach. Prevailing southerly winds over the remaining coastal and southern waters will shift westward throughout the day today as low pressure approaches the coast.
(Today through Tuesday) As expected the rainfall is developing to our west a touch more northward as the warm front is beginning to lift northward. As the day progresses and the warm front lifts northward the added lift will increase coverage and intensity of the showers through the afternoon. As the front pushes north and we see more of southerly flow south of the warm front, the instability should increase enough to generate a few embedded thunderstorms this evening and overnight, generally along and just ahead of the warm front. Did continue with a slight chance of thunder through Noon on Tuesday as the warm front exits the area. After Noon the instabilities shift westward closer to the cold front.
H5 analysis from earlier this evening had a closed low over Hudson Bay. West of this feature, a high amplitude ridge extended from the Gulf of Alaska north through eastern Alaska into the Arctic Ocean. Another high amplitude ridge was present over Greenland. Southeast of the Alaska ridge, a broad area of low pressure was centered just off the coast of southern Oregon. At the surface, a cold front was bisecting the area overnight and was roughly located between Thedford and North Platte.
This is due to a tighter pressure gradient between a weak low pressure in the Texas Panhandle and a high pressure in SE CONUS inducing that southerly flow in East Texas. However, SSTs are in the low 60s and with dew points in the mid to upper 60s, sea fog will still develop despite the veering winds.
and Tuesday A cold front was moving through northwest WI early this morning, but dry conditions and mainly high clouds were observed across the forecast area. Clouds will thicken as a cold front moves slowly across the forecast area today. High pressure is expected to move into north central WI late tonight, which should allow temperatures to drop into the single digits above zero there.
A warm front will slowly lift north throughout today into tonight. The warm front will slowly lift north into Tue afternoon before stalling from west central AR into NERN AR by Tue night.
Cooler overnight low temperatures are expected in the post-frontal regime across northern Oklahoma (low to mid-30s) than areas further south and east (mid-40s to mid-50s).
At the surface, a cold front was bisecting South Dakota and entering northwest Nebraska. For tonight, there remains some signal for a brief period of drizzle over portions of southeast KS but we're thinking the higher probabilities will remain further south and east where temperatures will be above freezing with minimal impacts to travel. Much cooler air will filter south in the wake of the front with lows falling into the low 20s for portions of central KS while those in far southeast KS struggle to drop below 40. A mid/upper trough is progged to dig across Central California on Tue while the mid/upper flow transitions to southwest across the central CONUS. Seasonable temperatures will return on Wed with easterly low level upslope flow developing ahead of the incoming trough.
305 AM CST Mon Dec 5 2022 An area of low pressure was located over Ontario and high pressure was situated over the Ohio Valley and Mid Atlantic region. A weak cold front will drop in from the northwest, turning winds from the SW to N during the afternoon and evening.
Further Details: Zonal flow aloft will transition to southwesterly tonight as an approaching trough edges closer to the Desert Southwest. Not expecting fire weather concerns given the higher RH values today. High pressure is expected to build in across the Central Plains, and there will be a "battle" between the two air masses as a stalled front looks to develop across the Panhandles in the afternoon.
Continued warm advection along with filtered sunshine and southerly breezes should result in another mild afternoon, and manually boosted temps across the lower elevations to account for this likelihood, as NBM forecast highs ran 3-6 degrees too cool yesterday under similar circumstances.
An area of low pressure was located over Ontario and high pressure was situated over the Ohio Valley and Mid Atlantic region. A weak cold front will drop in from the northwest, turning winds from the SW to N during the afternoon and evening.
437 AM MST Mon Dec 5 2022 Latest upper air analysis shows the broad ridge over the Rockies moving onto the Plains. Meanwhile the closed trough over Canada stretches onto the Northern Plains. At the surface a cold front was approaching the forecast area from the north. Today the cold front will move into the forecast area this morning. Tonight CAA behind the front will cause temperatures to be cooler than last night. There will be weak CAA through the day causing highs to be cooler than today. Lows will be warmer than tonight due to the weak WAA. Meanwhile a short wave ridge will approach the forecast area from the southwest.
(Today through Tuesday) High pressure remains situated across the Middle Atlantic states and stretches down into much of GA. A warm front is positioned along the Gulf Coast. The warm front along the coast is expected to begin shifting north later today while the wedge strengthens across northeast portions of the state. The forecast is heavily dependent upon the strength of the wedge and how far the warm front will move. BL winds will remain at 10kt or below, so not confident on the northward progress of the warm front. Have adjusted MaxT values today for a slower northward progression of the warm front.
Otherwise, expect a warm day today as a warm front moves across the region. We will see high temperatures up around the low to middle 70s as a result.
608 AM EST Mon Dec 5 2022 High pressure shifts east today and is replaced with a meandering frontal boundary to the northwest for the work week. High pressure finally moves off to the east during the morning which will signal an end to the dry weather and mostly clear skies we have had the last couple days. By late afternoon, the lower column begins to rapidly saturate. Weak disturbance moving through southwest flow will result in a weak low pressure system tracking through the area early in the period. Once the low moves past the area, the trailing front will sag just south of the area.
The low pressure system responsible for our active weather will move onshore and weaken on Tuesday.
357 AM CST Mon Dec 5 2022 H5 analysis from earlier this evening had a closed low over Hudson Bay. West of this feature, a high amplitude ridge extended from the Gulf of Alaska north through eastern Alaska into the Arctic Ocean. Another high amplitude ridge was present over Greenland. Southeast of the Alaska ridge, a broad area of low pressure was centered just off the coast of southern Oregon. At the surface, a cold front was bisecting the area overnight and was roughly located between Thedford and North Platte.
421 AM MST Mon Dec 5 2022 Latest upper air analysis shows the broad ridge over the Rockies moving onto the Plains. Meanwhile the closed trough over Canada stretches onto the Northern Plains. At the surface a cold front was approaching the forecast area from the north. Today the cold front will move into the forecast area this morning. Tonight CAA behind the front will cause temperatures to be cooler than last night. There will be weak CAA through the day causing highs to be cooler than today. Lows will be warmer than tonight due to the weak WAA. Meanwhile a short wave ridge will approach the forecast area from the southwest.
This front will drift slowly north today as a low pressure system moves into central Montana from the west. The system will bring a cold front south across the forecast area tonight with colder temperatures.
339 AM CST Mon Dec 5 2022 Weak surface cyclogenesis over southeast CO/far sw KS and the OK panhandle will slide east over the KS/OK state line today as the cooler air mass/surface anticyclone over the Northern Plains pushes a cold front into Kansas. The push of cooler air will be more pronounced early as the more mild 30âs F temps of the last couple of nights is replaced by low 20s and teens for overnight Monday into early Tuesday morning. Tuesday will be a markedly cooler day, but not very cold compared with climatology.
Weak surface cyclogenesis over southeast CO/far sw KS and the OK panhandle will slide east over the KS/OK state line today as the cooler air mass/surface anticyclone over the Northern Plains pushes a cold front into Kansas. The push of cooler air will be more pronounced early as the more mild 30âs F temps of the last couple of nights is replaced by low 20s and teens for overnight Monday into early Tuesday morning. Tuesday will be a markedly cooler day, but not very cold compared with climatology.
Dense fog continue in the lower valleys this morning, including most of the Treasure Valley. An upper low centered in northern California will spread light snow showers into southern Oregon today and snow showers in central Idaho.
1134 AM CST Mon Dec 5 2022 Isentropic upglide will continue across the Mid-South into this evening, remaining quite strong along and north of the poleward retreating warm front. We may see a slight downward trend in rain coverage this afternoon but it will pick back up once again this evening as the low-level jet intensifies.
Warm, dry conditions continue through the rest of the week as high pressure remains in control. Only fire weather concern at this time are the low dispersion indices expected over the next few days as the flow remains light.
1156 AM CST Mon Dec 5 2022 H5 analysis from earlier this evening had a closed low over Hudson Bay. West of this feature, a high amplitude ridge extended from the Gulf of Alaska north through eastern Alaska into the Arctic Ocean. Another high amplitude ridge was present over Greenland. Southeast of the Alaska ridge, a broad area of low pressure was centered just off the coast of southern Oregon. At the surface, a cold front was bisecting the area overnight and was roughly located between Thedford and North Platte.
Nil rain chances continue to be advertised for this afternoon, with temperatures climbing into the lower 80s. From synopsis, high pressure will continue to slide northeastward over the northwestern Atlantic, resulting in slackening breezes this afternoon and tonight. Another ridge of high pressure will build into the Southeast and Atlantic waters by mid-week.
1009 AM MST Mon Dec 5 2022 Latest upper air analysis shows the broad ridge over the Rockies moving onto the Plains. Meanwhile the closed trough over Canada stretches onto the Northern Plains. At the surface a cold front was approaching the forecast area from the north. Today the cold front will move into the forecast area this morning. Tonight CAA behind the front will cause temperatures to be cooler than last night. There will be weak CAA through the day causing highs to be cooler than today. Lows will be warmer than tonight due to the weak WAA. Meanwhile a short wave ridge will approach the forecast area from the southwest.
(Tonight) Widespread (100%) rain showers will continue to spread across the area this evening and overnight along and near a slow-moving warm front.
1018 AM EST Mon Dec 5 2022 High pressure shifts east today and is replaced with a meandering frontal boundary to the northwest for the work week. High pressure has finally moved off to the east. By late afternoon, the lower column begins to rapidly saturate. Weak disturbance moving through southwest flow will result in a weak low pressure system tracking through the area early in the period. Once the low moves past the area, the trailing front will sag just south of the area.
/13 (Now through Tuesday) Broad upper ridging located mostly over the Gulf builds up along the East Coast on Tuesday into response to a system advancing across the western states. Unseasonably warm temperatures continue, with highs today in the lower to mid 70s, then highs on Tuesday will be in the mid to upper 70s. Lows tonight range from around 60 well inland to the lower 60s closer to the coast.
(This afternoon through Tuesday) A warm front is oriented generally north of US HWY 80 with a narrow wedge of high pressure along the East Coast extending southwest along the Appalachians and into northeast AL. Behind the front, warmer air moves northward with mild, humid conditions overnight. Highs will be well above average ranging from the lower 70s north to mid/upper 70s south.
We remain under northwest flow as the low to our west slowly meanders southwest and away from Idaho. Amounts will be on the light side, maybe a couple of inches or so on the higher peaks in those areas. We should see stratus and some freezing fog expand again across more of the Snake Plain and Magic Valley vs last night, as well as seeing pockets of low clouds and fog across the South Hills/Albion Mountains, southeast highlands and Stanley Basin.
Light to moderate rains that moved in earlier this morning continue to stream across the CWA and while the bulk of the high rain rates are south of I-40, even those north of I-40 are getting at least some drizzle. With the mid-state being situated on the north edge of a high pressure ridge centered over the Gulf of Mexico, we're left in the sweet spot for upper level impulses to stream overhead multiple times over the next several days.
Models generally in agreement (some minor timing differences) on upper low moving out of the four corners region of the SW and deepening some as it arrives late Thur into early Fri.
118 PM MST Mon Dec 5 2022 Latest upper air analysis shows the broad ridge over the Rockies moving onto the Plains. Meanwhile the closed trough over Canada stretches onto the Northern Plains. At the surface a cold front was approaching the forecast area from the north. Today the cold front will move into the forecast area this morning. Tonight CAA behind the front will cause temperatures to be cooler than last night. There will be weak CAA through the day causing highs to be cooler than today. Lows will be warmer than tonight due to the weak WAA. Meanwhile a short wave ridge will approach the forecast area from the southwest.
(This afternoon through Tuesday night) Today's semi-zonal mid-level flow will back into Tue as a closed low drops swd thru CA. Meanwhile a near stationary cold front will be INVOF Panhandle with modest surface Td of 45-55 from w-e across the CWFA, respectively. Tue night/Wed AM the aforementioned upper low will have moved INVOF nw AZ with the upper jet to the nw of the area. It does make sense that minor shrtwv trof's will be embedded with the mid/upper level flow.
(Rest of today through Tuesday) Seasonable temperatures and quiet weather conditions remain the status quo as a large and expansive ridge of high pressure will remain established across our region at the surface. At the same time, a persistent 500mb ridge of high pressure over the Gulf of Mexico will enhance subsidence over our region while keeping the jet- stream and active weather well to the north of our region. High temperatures are forecast to reach the lower 80s across the area.
(Through Tuesday) A rather stout 500 mb mid to upper level ridge is expected to remain in place across the central Gulf of Mexico, which will keep much of the region under its influence. Given this mid and upper level ridge, higher atmospheric heights will generally lead to warmer temperatures. With minimal upper level forcing in place given the upper level ridging and subsidence aloft, rainfall chances will generally remain less than 20% across the aforementioned areas. Generally speaking Tuesday will bring another warm day with highs in the mid 70s and lows will be in the low 60s to upper 50s Tuesday morning.
(This evening through Tuesday night) The FA is currently under zonal flow aloft, under the crest of an upper level ridge that is encompassing much of Mexico into Texas and the Gulf of Mexico. A cold front is to move into the northern combined Panhandles tonight bringing lower Td's and freezing temperatures into the northern half or so of the FA as it stalls out and divides the north from the south. Tomorrow night temperatures will once again fall below freezing for the north where as higher dewpoints in the southern TX Panhandle will keep temperatures in the upper 30s to lower 40s.
As the evening wears on, winds will decline all the while the surface wave slides southeast along the Red River overnight ahead of a backdoor cold front. The stationary front will probably waffle SW-NE through the day which should play havoc with highs, but in general we're favoring cooler numbers than the NBM for areas behind the front where easterly winds will be more stubborn to veer. Elsewhere, breezy west winds should make for another very mild day as lee troughing resumes to our NW under SW flow, although winds should be mostly in the 15 to 20 mph range and not 25 to 35 mph as we've seen today.
212 PM EST Mon Dec 5 2022 Low pressure over the Southern Plains moves east into the Tennessee Valley by Tuesday morning, spreading light rain into the region by tonight.
234 PM CST Mon Dec 5 2022 Zonal mid/upper flow is dominating a majority of the CONUS with a cutoff upper low over the PNW coastline beginning to merge with the dominate upper flow.
Rain showers will gradually overspread the area this evening and tonight, as a warm front lifts slowly northeastward out of the southern Tennessee Valley. However, due to the low river, stream, and creek levels leading up to this event, along with drier ground, no hydro issues are expected at this time across eastern Kentucky.
Improving conditions expected by late morning, with temps warming from morning lows in the upper 50s and lower 60s to afternoon highs in the lower to mid 80s under mostly sunny skies. Warm, dry conditions continue through the rest of the week as high pressure remains in control. Only fire weather concern at this time are the low dispersion indices expected over the next few days as the flow remains light.
533 PM CST Mon Dec 5 2022 (Tonight) Widespread (100%) rain showers will continue to spread across the area this evening and overnight along and near a slow-moving warm front.
Not out of the question to see a touch of freezing drizzle tonight, but we feel the threat is so small that we did not include it in the forecast given little to no precipitation and temperatures remain above freezing much of the night.
The warm front retreated quickly and even by this morning was already north of the area and we are now in a WAA regime. This could set the stage for marine fog again, especially over coastal MS where the waters are in the lower and mid 60s with dewpoints approaching the upper 60s to near 70. Given the cooler waters over MS Sound and slight southerly wind, feel the only area that has a real shot of dense fog will be coastal Ms and MS Sound. The ridge will continue to dominate the Gulf with weak zonal or wsw flow aloft.
Current temps predom in the lower/mid 50s will also do well to fall much further than a few more degrees by Tue morning.
Moisture has also been lacking in the low levels, making it tough to see even a flurry.
Tomorrow, the weather conditions will be dry and mostly sunny, with daytime high temperatures near the lower 80s.
612 PM EST Mon Dec 5 2022 (Rest of today through Tuesday) Seasonable temperatures and quiet weather conditions remain the status quo as a large and expansive ridge of high pressure will remain established across our region at the surface. At the same time, a persistent 500mb ridge of high pressure over the Gulf of Mexico will enhance subsidence over our region while keeping the jet- stream and active weather well to the north of our region. High temperatures are forecast to reach the lower 80s across the area.
Took away mention of patchy fog along the coast and over the waters tonight due to a strengthening LLJ of 35-40 knots along the Coastal Plains and waters helping to mix the low-levels.
536 PM CST Mon Dec 5 2022 (This afternoon through Tuesday night) Today's semi-zonal mid-level flow will back into Tue as a closed low drops swd thru CA. Meanwhile a near stationary cold front will be INVOF Panhandle with modest surface Td of 45-55 from w-e across the CWFA, respectively. Tue night/Wed AM the aforementioned upper low will have moved INVOF nw AZ with the upper jet to the nw of the area. It does make sense that minor shrtwv trof's will be embedded with the mid/upper level flow.
The cold core of the upper level trough which has been generating the precipitation since the weekend is moving inland today. The trough finally shifts south on Tuesday with showers tapering from the north to the south during the day.
706 PM EST Mon Dec 5 2022 A weak pressure pattern will be in place through tonight with a broad low level ridge across FL, a weak warm front across south GA and a coastal trough offshore of the local Atlantic coast. The best shot of measurable rainfall will focus near the Altamaha River basin through tonight north of the lifting warm front, but rain chances will be less than 20%. High resolution guidance indicated the highest probabilities of dense fog (visibility < 1/4 SM) along and west of the I-10 corridor from JAX to Live Oak, and near I-75 from VAD to GNV.