Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1120 AM EDT Fri Jun 9 2017 The slow moving upper low that brought below normal temperatures and showers at times across the region this past week will finally begin to lift northeast and away from the region today. A weak ridge of a high pressure will build over the state today providing plenty of sunshine and dry conditions through at least the mid afternoon hours. A warm front and weak wave of low pressure will slide southeast from the upper great lakes region late today and will drift across northern Pennsylvania or southern New York tonight.
957 AM CDT Fri Jun 9 2017 At 10 AM CDT around the Mid-South tranquil conditions continue around the region, with temperatures in the low to mid 70s under sunny skies. No updates or changes to the forecast are necessary, with temperatures expected to climb into the low to mid 80s today. A trough over the northeast CONUS will gradually shift eastward over the Canadian Maritimes by this evening with a weaker wave moving east across the Mid-Atlantic States tomorrow. To the west, a longwave trough will move slowly east into the Pacific Northwest over the next few days, damping the ridge over the central CONUS. With strong insolation and warm surface temperatures, dewpoints are expected to mix down into the lower 50s this afternoon, with some locations potentially dipping into the upper 40s again.
Otherwise, VFR/SKC thru 10/12Z per ridging influences sfc/aloft.
Passing high pressure will lead to a light and veering flow through the period. High pressure at the surface and aloft will maintain dry weather through at least the first half of the weekend. Today will likely be the last day where dewpoints will be in the lower to mid 60s before RHs increase Saturday.
1042 AM EDT Fri Jun 9 2017 Update/Marine Weak low pressure will move through today bringing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms. I also increase the high into the lower 80s as we continue to have a problem with our high temp forecasting being 3 to 5 degrees to low. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue into this afternoon with the highest chances shifting east of the forecast area by evening as indicated in all the hi-res model guidance.
Otherwise, high pressure will remain in control of the weather. High pressure remains in control of the weather pattern over the area through the remainder of the forecast. Lows in the lower 60s are expected by Saturday morning, despite light winds and clear skies.
The low level convergence will remain along this axis this morning and then gradually translate inland this afternoon. Northwest flow aloft and weak high pressure at the surface should keep rain chances in check today. Expect dry weather again on Saturday as upper level ridging briefly develops.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 83 62 87 65 / 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 80 60 85 65 / 0 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 81 58 86 63 / 0 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 77 55 83 59 / 0 0 0 0.
/22/ Prior discussion below: Today and tonight: A nice day is on tap for the ArkLaMiss as strong high pressure prevails. Saturday broad mid-level ridging with heights near 590mb will be situated across the region, with somewhat cutoff ridging over the western Gulf into Texas. This will slowly help reinforce return flow and dewpoints climbing into the lower 60s. With dewpoints and PWs slowly on the rise (around an inch) and strong mid-level ridging, hot and humid conditions will begin to be the persistent pattern.
Today and Tonight: Expect a slightly warmer day, compared to yesterday, due to more boundary layer mixing and a few degree rise in 850 mb temps into the upper teens Celsius. The most likely area for the higher dewpoints into the lower 60s is near an area of sfc- 925mb convergence that the HRRR and 4km NAM have setting up roughly north of I-80 and along and south of highway 20. This occurs as the upper level blocking pattern, which brought the extended stretch of mild and dry weather over the area this past week, breaks down. An upper level ridge and associated dome of very warm temperatures over the rockies will get nudged eastward as an upstream upper low moves into the west coast by late in the weekend.
710 AM EDT Fri Jun 9 2017 Aviation Weak low pressure will move through today bringing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue into this afternoon with the highest chances shifting east of the forecast area by evening as indicated in all the hi-res model guidance.
903 AM EDT Fri Jun 9 2017 High pressure will continue to build into the area through Saturday. Today, an upper level trough over the Mid Atlantic will lift to the northeast and near zonal flow aloft. Surface ridging across the area with strong subsidence developing during the day. The subsidence combined with weak warm advection should result in temperatures a few degrees warmer than yesterday. It will be a few degrees warmer than the past few nights with increasing low level moisture. Lows will be in the lower to mid 60s.
A large upper level ridge of high pressure will build firmly over Colorado today. The ridge will usher in the warmest air so far this year and bring an end to precipitation chances.
As a mid/upper level trough moves into the wrn CONUS the ridge will shift from the plains into the ern CONUS resulting in sw flow toward the nrn Great Lakes. Upper Michigan will remain near the top of the ridge with a frontal boundary near the area which will provide a focus for periods of shra/tsra. The best focus for the low level jet and theta-e advection will be mainly to the north and west of the cwa. The low will drag a weak front into the area which may provide the focus for additional shra/tsra.
1113 AM CDT Fri Jun 9 2017 High pressure will continue to control our weather today, providing another dry and mostly sunny afternoon. 12z OHX sounding supports afternoon highs in the lower to middle 80s in areas west of the Cumberland Plateau, and see no reason to fiddle with a max temperature grid that's about as optimum as one can expect. " This is a great day to get outside and enjoy, not one to sit around pulling ones hair out as to whether the high at Nashville will be 82, 83 or 84 degrees. Otherwise, VFR/SKC thru 10/12Z per ridging influences sfc/aloft.
606 AM CDT Fri Jun 9 2017 Upper level ridging and increasing southerly flow will allow WAA to build into the region starting tomorrow increasing temperatures 3 to 4 degrees higher than yesterday over most of the CWA.
The trough will have limited moisture to work with keeping rain chances to a minimum and mainly isolated to the coastal waters with one or two approaching the coastal counties during the overnight and early morning hours.
A low pressure system off the coast will result in scattered showers and below normal temperatures through Saturday.
Lingering showers and cooler than normal temperatures will continue through the weekend.
Weak troughing aloft is in place across the eastern CONUS with the main wave across the northeast, while at the surface weak ridging is in place across the southeast.
The weekend will see continuation of a SW flow pattern aloft with a weak short wave trough exiting the area mid-day Saturday, keeping a chance of TSRA in the far east Saturday morning. Dry weather is then expected Saturday evening before a warm frontal bndry begins to lift into the far south late Sat night into Sun morning.
649 AM CDT Fri Jun 9 2017 High pressure to maintain light winds across area terminals today. These storms are currently moving southeast towards the DFW Metroplex and are associated with a weak upper trough moving southeast across the Plains. It is worth noting that a couple of the higher resolutions models, including the HRRR, indicate some convection could reach portions of East Texas by noon. With little in the way of cloud cover on Saturday, temperatures should be even warmer.
The best potential may be found across the southern South Plains, most removed from the building ridge.
Temperatures have warmed to the mid 80s late this morning, on the way to the lower and mid 90s. The ridge axis aloft is across Colorado this morning and will shift into the central plains later today and tonight. This will increase the west and southwest flow aloft with even warmer and drier conditions. Temperatures will rise into the lower 90s over much of the plains this afternoon. With the warmer temperatures expect some acceleration of snow melt today and over the next few days over mountain rivers and streams. Readings should be in the low to mid 90s again for the plains and in the upper 60s to low 80s for the high country and high mountain valleys.
1127 AM EDT Fri Jun 9 2017 High pressure and warming conditions Friday into the beginning of the new work week. Clouds already eroding from west to east as high pressure builds in behind departing upper low.
A cold upper low off the Pacific Northwest coast will maintain a warm and dry southwesterly flow aloft across the Great Basin through much of the weekend.
As for the rest of the day expect daytime heating and instability to combine with the available low level moisture to support scattered showers and isolated thunderstorm development as we move into the afternoon time frame, with best coverage of convection and the highest rain chances (Pops 40 to 50 percent) setting up over southern interior zones along the sea breeze circulations, with slightly lower rain chances (Pops 20 to 30 percent) further to the north and west.
A trough over the northeast CONUS will gradually shift eastward over the Canadian Maritimes by this evening with a weaker wave moving east across the Mid-Atlantic States tomorrow. To the west, a longwave trough will move slowly east into the Pacific Northwest over the next few days, damping the ridge over the central CONUS. With strong insolation and warm surface temperatures, dewpoints are expected to mix down into the lower 50s this afternoon, with some locations potentially dipping into the upper 40s again.
754 AM EDT Fri Jun 9 2017 High pressure will continue to build into the area through Saturday. Today, an upper level trough over the Mid Atlantic will lift to the northeast and near zonal flow aloft. Surface ridging across the area with strong subsidence developing during the day. The subsidence combined with weak warm advection should result in temperatures a few degrees warmer than yesterday. It will be a few degrees warmer than the past few nights with increasing low level moisture. Lows will be in the lower to mid 60s.
516 AM MDT Fri Jun 9 2017 Water vapor imagery early this morning showing upper ridge axis right overhead. Off the PACNW coast, a pretty strong low pressure system is slowly moving southeast to wards the Oregon and northern California coast.
The low pressure system that brought widespread rain to the region this morning and early afternoon, will continue to bring light rain and snow showers to locations along the Continental Divide and areas of northwest Montana around Kalispell and Glacier National Park, through the evening hours.
Ahead of this feature, a weakening low level jet will clip northwestern Missouri within the warm sector of the advancing cold front.
Issued at 322 AM PM EDT Mon Apr 17 2017 A cold front near the Ohio river will stall near the Kentucky Tennessee border later today as weak high pressure moves east across the great lakes.
Potent 850 LLJ traverses largely to our northwest and north in conjunction with the low though core of strongest winds and associated speed/moisture convergence is proggd to stay to nor north.
Upper ridging and dry weather will return Tuesday behind the departing wave. A broad upper trough will push into the western CONUS with a strong upper wave across the Great Basin.
Dry conditions are otherwise expected Tuesday as upper ridging and subsidence take control. Highs are expected to be in the lower to mid 80s.
338 PM CDT Mon Apr 17 2017 An upper level trough will move across the Northern and Central Plains tonight. A weak cold front will also sweep thorugh the area overnight. By Tuesday evening, this upper trough will approach the area, providing another chance for showers and thunderstorms. A warm front across northern Kansas will remain nearly stationary.
313 PM CDT Mon Apr 17 2017 Weak high pressure is trying to build across the the area this afternoon. Most of the lower clouds and showers have moved southeast of the area with just a few lingering showers over southeast Missouri and central Illinois. with a slight chance of thunderstorms late Tuesday afternoon over northeast Missouri ahead of the next upstream cold front.
A surface cold front continues to move across central Wyoming late this afternoon, w/considerable low-level moisture return observed over the western Panhandle with surface dew points in the upper 40s/lower 50s. Tstms are expected to end by late evening behind the cold front. It will be quiet for most of the day on Tue with broad/flat upper- level ridging in place, so expect another mild afternoon given 700 mb temperatures around +8C.
Over the next few days, warmer and drier conditions will prevail. A few showers cannot be ruled out over the higher terrain in Southeast Oklahoma as the wave moves north by tomorrow.
Generally quiet weather can be expected through Tuesday night under the influence of high pressure. A frontal system will approach the area with the front becoming quasistationary in the area mid to late week as low pressure develops along the frontal zone and moves through the Great Lakes.
600 PM CDT Mon Apr 17 2017 Weak mid-level trough and associated altocumulus clouds exiting east of the area this afternoon. Otherwise relatively quiet across the area with temperatures ranging from the lower 50s across north central WI to near 70 degrees across northeast IA into southwest WI. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected to accompany the low and cold front making passage through the area Tuesday. The cold front is expected to slip just south of the area then become nearly stationary across northern IL into central IA Tuesday night as high pressure builds south into WI.
Southeast winds increasing tomorrow as ridge axis slides east, but skies remaining mostly clear. Mid-level fgen anchored on the periphery of the mid-level trough axis pivoting through the upper midwest is supporting showers over the southern half of Minnesota and western Wisconsin this morning. Meanwhile, strong high pressure over northern Ontario will reinforce lake aggregate high pressure locally leading to persistent onshore flow in the Thumb. Remnants of the PacNW cyclone lift across the Straits Tuesday night, the attendant cold front settling southward through the CWA, eventually becoming stationary as it aligns with quasi-zonal deep layer flow.
329 PM CDT Mon Apr 17 2017 Main concern for short term will be WINTRY mix mix tonight A strong low pressure system will move across the dakotas this evening and northern MN Tuesday. Surface temps will be below freezing but warmer temps in the lower levels due to the southerly flow at those levels. forecast soundings do suggest a possibility of sleet and freezing rain along with the rain and snow with the best shot in eastern Koochiching, northern and central St. The area south of Highway 2 will remain above freezing overnight. Warmer air into the advisory area changing over to all rain.
645 PM EDT Mon Apr 17 2017 A cold front will move well offshore tonight.
Cold front across the southern coalfields will continue to move southeastward and out of the CWA by this evening. Weak high pressure will continue to build in across the area from the north and will keep skies mostly clear overnight tonight with only some cirrus hanging around. Rest of the CWA will see mostly sunny skies throughout the day as weak high pressure stays in control.
Winds were already light across the state, but winds are expected to become light and variable if not calm across much of Arkansas early Tuesday morning as a weak area of high pressure moves across the state. but went with IFR visibility for the central Arkansas TAF sites as this is where clouds clear out but low-level moisture remains the highest. This was happening ahead of a cold front that was drifting into the region from Missouri.
At the surface, low pressure over the Dakotas will continue to drive eastward ahead of the upper trough with a trailing cold front sliding into our northern CWA as early as overnight. A lee cyclone will develop across northeast Colorado by late Tuesday and slide northeast along the remnant boundary, which then is forecast to become a warm front. Strong southwesterly low level flow will bring an increasing in moisture to the region with sfc dewpoints climbing back into the low 60s.
An axis of high pressure at the surface extends from the northeastern U. /49 Overnight Tuesday, a weak mid-level ridge over the eastern CONUS will begin to advect in dry air through the southeastern states.
Cold front moves into the region Tuesday afternoon. Went likely chances for rain across the north where it will be closer to the better dynamics and a chance across the south with the cold front.
305 PM CDT Mon Apr 17 2017 A weak frontal system will continue to sink south into Dixie tonight, allowing a weak ridge axis to slip farther southeast toward the Ohio Valley region.
633 PM EDT Mon Apr 17 2017 High pressure will continue to provide fair weather tonight into Tuesday. Lows will drop into the 40s tonight with highs in the low to mid 70s tomorrow.
334 PM EDT Mon Apr 17 2017 High pressure will build into the Great Lakes offering dry weather tonight into Tuesday.
Another round of showers and storms is then anticipated on Tuesday as the trough axis sets up and deepens more over the Texas coast. Moisture will not be quite as high, and do not anticipate very high rainfall rates on Tuesday, but the overall setup will be enough to generate scattered showers and thunderstorms with the highest chances across the Coastal Plains into the Victoria Crossroads once again, waning in coverage during the early evening. There will not be much variance with regard to temperatures between today and tomorrow, with highs generally in the low to mid 80s and lows in the mid 60s to lower 70s along the coast.
An energetic wave/warm front pushes northeast into the local region this afternoon, then exits after midnight. With the ridge in place, Tuesday should become a mild day, with highs near normal. This will lead to successive periods of low pressure troughs and high pressure ridges through latter part of this week and throughout the weekend.
The lack of any upper level support, warmer and drier temps aloft should effectively keep a lid on convective development.
The main culprit is short wave energy embedded in otherwise zonal 500 mb flow which carves out a weak 500 mb trough that slides through South Texas today through Tuesday before exiting into the Gulf Tuesday night. The Sierra Madres may light up down the line with thunderstorms, and may include areas west of Zapata and Starr as the short wave rounds the base of the weak 500 mb trough developing over South Texas. As with any spring upper troughs, the potential for clusters of discrete cells that can produce strong winds or hail remains. High temps were lowered a category to the lower and mid 80s. Midlevel ridging over North Central Mexico will begin to nose northeast over Central Texas.
Templer Previous update - GOES Satellite imagery this morning clearly shows a closed-off upper low moving into the Northern Rockies. The other item with the incoming trough is the east wind, which will be marginal for an NPW for Fort Peck Lake.
251 PM CDT Mon Apr 17 2017 Weak mid-level trough and associated altocumulus clouds exiting east of the area this afternoon. Otherwise relatively quiet across the area with temperatures ranging from the lower 50s across north central WI to near 70 degrees across northeast IA into southwest WI. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected to accompany the low and cold front making passage through the area Tuesday. The cold front is expected to slip just south of the area then become nearly stationary across northern IL into central IA Tuesday night as high pressure builds south into WI.
A weak cold front will stall across northern Utah tonight.
607 PM EDT Mon Apr 17 2017 A ridge of high pressure over the western Great Lakes will slide east across the local area tonight. This ridge will shift to the east coast by Tuesday night.
Pacific cold front is currently moving across the forecast area this afternoon. As is normal this time of year, with freezing levels so low, pea size hail will be likely with any thunderstorm.
312 PM EDT Mon Apr 17 2017 A ridge of high pressure over the western Great Lakes will slide east across the local area tonight. This ridge will shift to the east coast by Tuesday night.
307 PM EDT Mon Apr 17 2017 High pressure will continue to provide fair weather tonight into Tuesday. Lows will drop into the 40s tonight with highs in the low to mid 70s tomorrow.
/Tuesday night through Monday/ Stalled front over southern Iowa and northern Missouri Tuesday night will be the focus for showers and a few stronger thunderstorms as the low level jet ramps up with MUCAPE values between 1000 and 1500 J/kg. This places southern Iowa in the warm sector characterized by mid-afternoon dewpoints in the low and middle 60s, MUCAPE generally between 1000-2000 J/kg, and deep shear supportive of supercells.
1118 AM MDT Mon Apr 17 2017 Current surface analysis shows cold front slowly sliding south across southern SD and northeast WY, with high pressure in place over the Canadian Prairie provinces. Temps range from 20s across far northwest SD and the Black Hills to the lower 40s across south central SD. Highs will range from the lower 60s across far northwest SD and the higher BH to the mid 70s over far southwest SD. The best chances later this afternoon may end up being from far northeast WY into far southwest SD near developing weak trough/dryline.
347 PM EDT Mon Apr 17 2017 Variable clouds with a few scattered light showers or sprinkles will be possible this evening, otherwise skies should gradually become clear to partly cloudy by Tuesday morning as high pressure builds into the region. The trough passage may spark a few light showers or sprinkles across mainly northern counties this evening, otherwise mainly dry weather is expected after midnight as skies gradually trend clear to partly cloudy in most areas by Tuesday morning. High pressure at the surface and aloft will build across the region for Tuesday with fair weather and a light wind regime.
We will have 20 POPs confined to areas just along the border, and continuing through the late night hours in the northern zones as a nebulous region of 800-700mb warm frontogenesis develops in response to the aforementioned mid level trough axis coming out. The cool, moist boundary layer airmass will be replaced by a much warmer airmass from the southwest on Tuesday as a new lee trough develops across northeastern New Mexico and eastern Colorado.
237 PM EDT Mon Apr 17 2017 High pressure will build down over the region from eastern Canada bringing fair but chilly weather tonight through Tuesday night.
Have bumped up high temperatures slightly with highs reaching the lower to mid 70s. Tonight, clouds return and the low level jet ramps up in central Kansas. The tail end of this cold front will move in from the west by Tuesday afternoon. Models are in fairly good agreement on the synoptic scale details of the extended with broad WSW flow aloft for the middle part of the week followed by an amplification of the pattern for the end of the week as a seasonably strong PV anomaly dives southeastward across the High Plains.
138 PM EDT Mon Apr 17 2017 High pressure will build into the Great Lakes offering dry weather today into Tuesday.