Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
338 AM CDT MON SEP 14 2015 Quiet conditions continue across the area as an upper ridge has built in and will stick around for the upcoming week. For these reasons will trend above the highest guidance which will keep highs well above normal in the 90s and even 100s for parts of the area through late week. The upper ridge may give way to a weak cold front by the end of the week. Temperatures may cool slightly with the front, but with the upper ridge remaining in tact through the period there looks to be no real end in sight to the heat.
143 AM EDT MON SEP 14 2015 AFTER LINGERING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS DEPART BY EARLY AFTERNOON, A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD IN, TO BRING DRY WARMER WEATHER, FOR MUCH OF THIS WEEK. WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE AROUND THE BACK-SIDE OF A DEEP UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL KEEP CLOUDS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING, ALONG WITH FREQUENT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES, ESPECIALLY FOR CENTRAL NY. HOWEVER, THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST THE LATEST RUNS OF OUR HIGH- RESOLUTION MODELS, THAT THESE SHOWERS/SPRINKLES WILL DISSIPATE RATHER QUICKLY IN THE 10 AM-1 PM TIME FRAME, AS THE ABOVE MENTIONED TROUGH FILLS, AND LIFTS OUT TO THE NORTHEAST. VERY QUIET WEATHER IS FORESEEN THIS PERIOD, AS AN EXPANSIVE RIDGE SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN STATES, IN RESPONSE TO A PERSISTENT UPPER TROUGH AXIS RESIDING FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA DOWN THE WEST COAST OF THE U.
351 AM EDT MON SEP 14 2015 HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
A LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U. THIS WILL LEAVE RIDGING BACK TO THE WEST EXTENDING INTO NORTH TEXAS WHILE ANOTHER LARGE UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS UPPER TROUGH HAS RESULTED IN FAST WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE ROCKIES WHICH HAS INDUCED A 998MB LEE SIDE CYCLONE OVER NORTHEAST WYOMING. SURFACE MOISTURE WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE LATER TONIGHT WITH DEWPOINTS CLIMBING INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S WHICH WILL MAKE IT FEEL MORE UNCOMFORTABLE BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S. THERE IS LITTLE CHANCE FOR RAINFALL THROUGH THIS WEEK WITH THE UPPER RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS.
High pressure at the surface and weak ridging aloft will keep the region dry with plenty of sunshine and slowly moderating temperatures through the period. Any notable weather impacts should hold off until late week when the chance of thunderstorms returns with the approach of a cold front.
420 AM EDT MON SEP 14 2015 LOW PRESSURE DEPARTS TO THE NORTHEAST AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE SOUTHWEST TODAY.
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE WEST COAST BY LATE TODAY. THIS TROUGH WILL HOLD INLAND TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK AND ALSO RESULT IN A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN AT TIMES.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE GETTING A LITTLE WARMER THIS AFTERNOON AS THIS AIR MASS CONTINUES TO MODIFY.
THE LATEST IR SATL WAS SHOWING INCREASING CLOUDS IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING DISTURBANCE THAT WILL AFFECT OUR AREA TOMORROW WITH A FEW SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE WA/OR CASCADES ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPS FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. THE CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY THICKEN AND LOWER AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY.
/ISSUED 327 PM EDT SUN SEP 13 2015/ HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WITH A QUICK RETURN OF EASTERLY WIND FLOW LOCALLY.
An upper-level trough will slide through the Pacific NW and into our area by later today into tonight. Meanwhile, in advance of this trough, a fetch of higher moisture will stream into the region this afternoon, along with a cooling air mass. As a result, expect increasing clouds today and cooler temperatures, with showers moving up from the south by this afternoon. As the trough slides in Monday overnight into Tuesday, it will push a band of moderate precipitation through the area, along with a trailing cold front. An inch or two of snow can be expected in the high country as a result. Temperatures will be MUCH cooler than this weekend, as much as 30 degrees cooler, which translates to highs in the 50s for most valley locations.
330 AM PDT MON SEP 14 2015 A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
348 AM EDT MON SEP 14 2015 HIGH PRESSURE HAS SETTLED IN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST REGION WITH UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES AND LOW HUMIDITY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT EAST BECOMING SITUATED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC BY LATE TUESDAY. THE LOW LVL /SFC-H85/ FLOW WILL BECOME EAST-SOUTHEAST TODAY AND EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY. TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY MODIFY BOTH TODAY AND TUESDAY AS A S/W RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.
SLIGHTLY COOLER MAX TEMPS EXPECTED TUESDAY ESPECIALLY OVER THE ERN CWA OWING TO GREATER MSTR IN THE VERTICAL COLUMN.
124 AM EDT MON SEP 14 2015 DRY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.
MANY LOCATIONS HAVE ALREADY DIPPED INTO THE LOW AND MID 50S. STILL LOOKS LIKELY THAT MOST LOCATIONS WILL END UP IN THE LOW AND MID 40S. EXPECT TEMPS TO DROP OFF FAIRLY QUICKLY TONIGHT AND REACH THE LOW 40S. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IS MOVING OVERHEAD THIS AFTERNOON. AS WE CONTINUE TO SIT IN THE LOW AND MID 60S ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN KY. AND A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION SETS IN WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. WOULDN/T BE SURPRISED IF WE SEE THOUGH GENERALLY MUCH OF THE REGION WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 40S. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW. INTO THE LOW AND MID 70S FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS.
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE MIDWEST SHIFTS EAST AS UPPER TROUGH OVER WESTERN CANADA DIGS OVER THE WEST COAST SWITCHING UPPER FLOW TO A SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION OVER THE CWA. SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE LITTLE WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY AND WARMER TO THE SOUTH GIVEN 850-700MB WARM AIR ADVECTION. LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM MT INTO ND WITH COOL FRONT MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH CWA.
A SECOND STRONGER CENTRAL PACIFIC TROUGH WORKS THROUGH SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS AFTERNOON AND IS TIMED TO PASS THROUGH THIS FORECAST AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THE TRAILING EDGE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT LAYS INTO THE EASTERN UINTA MOUNTAINS TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR BETTER LATE-DAY STORM COVERAGE THERE. SW BREEZES DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY AND SW VALLEYS TONIGHT.
AS THE MEAN TROUGH APPROACHES THE CALIFORNIA COAST. ANOTHER H7 SHORT WAVE LOBE WILL PASS OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND THE JET STRUCTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS PARTICULAR TROUGH WILL BE COMPLICATED.
333 AM EDT MON SEP 14 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC AND REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. W OF THE MTNS IN THE LM70S XCPT M60S IN THE HIGHLANDS. WINDS WL INCRS AFTR SUNRISE BUT DIMINISH THIS AFTN AS THE HIGH SETTLES OVRHD. W/ THE HIGH OVRHD TNGT LGT WINDS AND CLR SKIES WL PROVIDE XCLNT RAD CONDS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN PARKED OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. MILD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WITH READINGS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 70S WEST TO THE 80S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
147 AM EDT MON SEP 14 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TONIGHT THROUGH MIDWEEK.
Zonal/flat ridge upper level pattern will develop over the region.
SFC LEE TROF WILL ALLOW FOR SW WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 35KT AFT 14/16Z ERN PLAINS. SO IT WILL TAKE A BIT LONGER FOR TOP-DOWN MOISTENING REACH THE LOW LEVELS. A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSING THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL DRAW BETTER MONSOON MOISTURE AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES OVER CENTRAL AND ESPECIALLY NORTHWEST NEW MEXICO MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
651 AM EDT MON SEP 14 2015 COOL AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY WILL SETTLE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC BY MIDWEEK.
THAT HAVE WATER TEMPS ABOUT 30 DEGREES WARMER THAN AIR TEMPS WILL BE THIS MORNING.
243 AM PDT MON SEP 14 2015 A dry cold front will continue to push through the region this morning bringing breezy conditions and cooler temperatures. Cooler and showery conditions will prevail through the week as a series of Pacific storms move through the region.
155 AM EDT MON SEP 14 2015 COOL AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK. DRY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE PERIOD. AS TEMPS MODERATE JUST SLIGHTLY IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER TROUGH PROGRESSING QUICKLY OFF THE EAST COAST.
323 AM CDT MON SEP 14 2015 Low level southerly flow will continue to increase today across central IL as surface and upper level high pressure ridge axes move off to the east. with highs reaching the low 80s west of I-55 and the upper 70s to the east. In the shorter term, high pressure ridge builds over the east coast of the country and southerly flow continues into the region.
A LARGE RIDGE OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S THIS MORNING. AND INTO FROM THE MID 40S TO THE LOWER 50S LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. STRONG SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE WILL KEEP ANY FOG THAT FORMS CONFINED TO OUR VALLEY LOCATIONS AND NEAR LARGE BODIES OF WATER THIS MORNING AND LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER.
QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY, WITH DAYTIME TEMPS QUICKLY RECOVERING TO MID-SEPTEMBER NORMALS UNDER THE BUILDING RIDGE.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE WESTERN STATES/WEST COAST SLOWLY BUILDING AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER TEXAS. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH INDUCES FALLING SURFACE PRESSURES IN THE PLAINS. EVEN THOUGH THE RIDGE IS BUILDING.
400 AM CDT MON SEP 14 2015 THE SHORT TERM APPEARS RATHER BENIGN WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WITH SURFACE SUPPORT IN THE FORM OF A COLD FRONT.
NAM/GFS AND ECMWF LATEST GUIDANCE SHOW A HIGHER TREND IN POPS WITH HIGHER CHANCES ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST. WINDS WILL SHIFT SE BY THE MON EVENING HOURS RESULTING IN SLIGHTLY WARMER LOW TEMPERATURES INTO EARLY TUE ACROSS THE AREA WITH MOST LOCATIONS RANGING FROM LOW TO MID 70S. 15 INCHES BY TUE 12Z WITH A DEEPER E TO SE FLOW IN THE LOWER LAYERS OF THE ATMS. THE HIGH TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA WILL REMAIN CLOSER TO THE MID TO UPPER 90S WEST WHILE MID AND LOWER VALLEY ONLY REACH THE LOW 90S.
ONCE AGAIN COMBINATION OF STRONG CONVECTIVE INHIBITION/LID INDICES 3C-7C/700MB TEMPS AROUND 12C DURING THE AFTN HOURS SUGGEST THE CHANCE FOR TSTM INITIATION WILL BE RATHER REMOTE JUST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE NRN CWA. FOCUS PCPN DEVELOPMENT WILL BE OVER THE SRN CWA THUR NIGHT/FRI WHERE FORCING/LLVL MOISTURE CONVG WILL INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO A COLD FRONT MAKING A PUSH SOUTH.
612 AM EDT MON SEP 14 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE STATE TUESDAY AND LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE MAINE COAST WILL MOVE ACROSS THE STATE THIS MORNING THEN CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE MARITIMES THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. WILL ALSO INCLUDE THE MENTION OF THUNDER ACROSS THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST TODAY WITH UNSTABLE CONDITIONS AS UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE STATE TODAY. WARMER TEMPERATURES AND DRIER WEATHER RIGHT THROUGH LATE WEEK. HIGH PRES WILL RIDGE OVER THE NE UNITED STATES PROVIDING DRY WEATHER AND WARMER TEMPS W/THOSE READINGS BEING WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY BISECTING FA FROM NE-SW AND WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTHWARD EXITING ALL BUT THE FAR SE BY SUNRISE. WITH COLD ADVECTION AND SOME MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER. AS LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZES OVER THE N PLAINS AHEAD OF NEXT WAVE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL LIFT WARM FRONT NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT.
WINDY AND MAINLY DRY WEEK AS WE REMAIN ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT BUILDS BACK INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. BY LATE IN THE WEEK WE GET A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING COOLER TEMPS AND BETTER RAIN CHANCES AS WE GET INTO THE WEEKEND.
A COOL UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE REGION FOR CLOUDY AND COOL CONDITIONS WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. DEPENDING ON THE EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER AND HOW FAR SOUTH THE COLD FRONT TRACKS. HIGHS ON MONDAY COULD BE COOLER THAN EXPECTED. MAINLY IN THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA WHERE LLM TEMPS ARE COOLER ON MOST MODELS. ABNORMALLY WARM AIR WILL SURGE IN THE CWA AHEAD OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT.
1150 PM MDT SUN SEP 13 2015 A PATTERN CHANGE IS IN STORE FOR THE REGION BEGINNING TOMORROW AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND REMAINS QUASISTATIONARY THROUGH MIDWEEK. BUT CONVERSE COUNTY SHOULD SEE HUMIDITIES BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOW TEENS PRIOR TO STRONGEST MOISTURE ADVECTION. COULD SEE GUSTY ERRATIC DOWNDRAFT WINDS PRODUCED FROM THIS ACTIVITY AS VIRGA LOOKS TO BE QUITE PREVALENT WITH THE LOWER HUMIDITIES IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. ALTHOUGH HIGHER MOISTURE OVERALL AND COOLER TEMPS SHOULD KEEP HUMIDITIES ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS.
PATTERN CHANGE UNDERWAY AS A DEEP U/L TROUGH WILL DIG ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE U. TODAY AND TUESDAY WHICH WILL INDUCE STRONG U/L RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY.
/issued 338 AM CDT MON SEP 14 2015/ Quiet conditions continue across the area as an upper ridge has built in and will stick around for the upcoming week. For these reasons will trend above the highest guidance which will keep highs well above normal in the 90s and even 100s for parts of the area through late week. The upper ridge may give way to a weak cold front by the end of the week. Temperatures may cool slightly with the front, but with the upper ridge remaining in tact through the period there looks to be no real end in sight to the heat.
329 AM EDT MON SEP 14 2015 HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
THE POSITION OF THE LOW LEVEL ANTICYCLONE WILL SUSTAIN A LOW LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY GRADIENT ACROSS LOWER MI THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AND WILL PLACE SE MI WITHIN A PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME. RECENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SMALLER SCALE MID LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY. THIS ALONG WITH THE DRY LOW LEVEL AIR WITHIN THE RETURN FLOW OF THE LARGE LOW LEVEL ANTICYCLONE WILL PROVIDE AMPLE SUNSHINE TODAY.
433 AM EDT MON SEP 14 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE STATE TUESDAY AND LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE MAINE COAST WILL MOVE ACROSS THE STATE THIS MORNING THEN CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE MARITIMES THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. WILL ALSO INCLUDE THE MENTION OF THUNDER ACROSS THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST TODAY WITH UNSTABLE CONDITIONS AS UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE STATE TODAY. WARMER TEMPERATURES AND DRIER WEATHER RIGHT THROUGH LATE WEEK. HIGH PRES WILL RIDGE OVER THE NE UNITED STATES PROVIDING DRY WEATHER AND WARMER TEMPS W/THOSE READINGS BEING WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
229 AM EDT MON SEP 14 2015 COOL AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY WILL SETTLE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC BY MIDWEEK.
A LITTLE LIGHT BREEZE HAS KEPT BHM IN THE LOW 60S BUT EVERYONE ELSE IS AT LEAST IN THE MID 50S. A GRADUAL WARM UP BEGINS TO DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST.
WITH HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON TOPPING OUT IN THE LOWER 90S WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER. RELATIVELY MILD PATTERN TAKING SHAPE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK AS ZONAL FLOW TRANSITIONS TO A BROAD TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN US.
THE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT SOME WELCOME COOLER WEATHER TO THE TN VALLEY THIS WEEKEND WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA TODAY. WITH THE HIGH TO THE E/NE OF THE REGION LATER TODAY.
539 AM EDT MON SEP 14 2015 LOW PRESSURE DEPARTS TO THE NORTHEAST AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE SOUTHWEST TODAY.
DRY COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING MADE IT A LITTLE SOUTH OF GREAT FALLS BEFORE WASHING OUT. CURRENT DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO SOUTHWESTERLY BEGINNING TOMORROW AS BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROF STARTS TO TAKE SHAPE ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST. THIS TROF WILL PLAY A DOMINANT ROLE IN OUR MID-WEEK WEATHER, BUT FOR MONDAY ITS MAIN IMPACT WILL BE TO BRING A MIX OF PACIFIC AND MONSOONAL MOISTURE INTO SOUTHWEST MT, GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND FEW THUNDERSTORMS THERE ON MON AFTN THAT WILL SLOWLY EXPAND INTO CENTRAL MT ON MON EVE. COOLER ON TUES.
311 AM EDT MON SEP 14 2015 LOW PRESSURE DEPARTS TO THE NORTHEAST AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE SOUTHWEST TODAY.
SFC DPTS HOLD IN THE LOW/MID 60S AND MODEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR REMAINS 30 TO 45KTS.
A STALLING COLD FRONT THAT WAS AT ONE TIME PROGGED TO MAKE IT ABOUT HALFWAY INTO THE WESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE LOOKS LIKE IT WILL WASH OUT QUICKLY THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE WRN OK PANHANDLE. PARTICULARLY AT NORTHERN TERMINALS WHERE EASTERLY LOW- LEVEL FLOW EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FOLLOWING PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT. /ISSUED 402 AM CDT THU MAY 7 2015/ FAIRLY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS A DEEP UPPER LEVEL WRN US TROF AND ASSOCIATED STRONG CLOSED LOW ORGANIZE OVER THE SWRN STATES. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. THE UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW EJECTS NEWD ON A PROJECTED PATH SUCH THAT PARTS OF THE FCST AREA MAY GET DRY SLOTTED.
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/RIDGE OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC/CANADIAN WEST COAST WILL SHIFT EAST TO THE GULF OF AK/CANADIAN ROCKIES BY 84 HOURS WITH SOME MODERATE AMPLIFICATION. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER NORTHERN CA WILL ROLL OUT IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MAY SPREAD POPS INTO THE FAR SOUTHERN ZONES LATE IN THE SHORT TERM.
HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL TODAY LEADING TO ANOTHER DAY OF FULL SUNSHINE. THIS IS ABOUT 20 DEGREES WARMER THAN SEASONAL NORMALS.
A COLD FRONT PUSHED THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT WITH A DRYLINE EXTENDING FROM FAR SOUTHEAST COLORADO INTO EASTERN NEW MEXICO. WITH A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH ALOFT EXPECTED TO LIFT OUT OF NEW MEXICO AND ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE AREA CONTINUES TO DIVE TOWARDS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TONIGHT.
THE ACTIVE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OVER OREGON DIVES SOUTH INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TODAY ENHANCING THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS PORTRAYING GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS BETWEEN 25 AND 40 MPH BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. SURFACE COLD FRONT NOW MOVING INTO JAMESTOWN AND SOUTH INTO OAKES. LATEST RADAR AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICT THE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW NOW CIRCULATING OVER THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY. BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THE LATEST 05 UTC RUN OF THE HRRR SHOWS SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BECOMING SCATTERED BY 16 UTC. MOS GUIDANCE FROM THE GFS IS SHOWING THE LOWER 30S ACROSS THE NORTHWEST WHILE THE NAM GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THE UPPER 20S.
SCATTERED SHOWERS YESTERDAY WERE MAINLY NORTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR AS THE REGION REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST.
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ENTRENCHED OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AGAIN TODAY. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOWER 70S. MODELS HAVE A PRETTY GOOD HANDLE ON A PREFRONTAL TROUGH AXIS THAT EXTENDS FROM WESTERN IOWA INTO NE ARKANSAS AND NW MISSISSIPPI. COULD SEE SOME DOWNSLOPE CONDITIONS WITH EASTERLY WINDS IN THE HUNTSVILLE AREA AND WEST OF SOME OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. AS THE PREFRONTAL TROUGH AXIS MOVES EAST TOWARDS THE AREA. LN /ISSUED 251 AM CDT THU MAY 7 2015/ UNDER MOSTLY CLR SKIES TEMPS WERE RANGING BETWEEN 55 AND 60 DEGREES WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW/MID 50S. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE FOR MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES/WARM TEMPS TODAY. HOWEVER WITH INCREASING MOISTURE IN THE LOW/MID LEVELS THERE COULD BE AN ISOLATED AFTN/EVENING SHRA/TSRA.
THIS IS ABOUT 20 DEGREES WARMER THAN SEASONAL NORMALS.
1032 AM EDT THU MAY 7 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THIS EVENING. LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY NEAR THE CAROLINAS THIS WEEKEND.
1248 PM EDT THU MAY 7 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THIS EVENING. LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY NEAR THE CAROLINAS THIS WEEKEND.
1045 AM EDT THU MAY 7 2015 MID/UPPER RIDGE HOLDS IN PLACE WITH WEAK STEERING FLOW. CU DEVELOPING OVER THE MOUNTAIN RIDGES. MID LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS OVER US. AS A BIT MORE MOISTURE WRAPS WEST UNDER THAT RIDGE.
LONG PERIOD SWELLS HAVE BEGUN TO DIMINISH AND THE HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS ALONG GULF FACING BEACHES HAS DIMINISHED THIS MORNING. QUICK UPDATE HAS BEEN MADE TO CANCEL THE HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS THIS MORNING. UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE ALONG ITS PATH DIGGING INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THE DESERT SOUTHWEST DURING THE PERIOD. WITH HIGHS HITTING IN THE LOWER 90S TODAY AND TOMORROW.
740 AM EDT THU MAY 7 2015 LOW PRESSURE OFF THE GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA COAST WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTH TODAY THEN TO COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA FRIDAY.
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE NOSES INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. THIS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM.
As the surface, a cold front was approaching from the northwest. The cold front is forecast to move east reaching our northwest counties by late in the day. The cold front should be somewhere over eastern Kansas Friday morning. There is plenty of uncertainty about how far south it will go before heading back north as a warm front.
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL SLOWLY SINK SOUTH OVER CALIFORNIA TODAY. GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE COAST AND ON EXPOSED RIDGES THROUGH TONIGHT. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER EASTERN ORGEON CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTH. THIS AFTERNOON THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO SINK SOUTH. TONIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER THAN THIS MORNING SO A FROST ADVISORY MAY NOT BE NEEDED IN TRINITY COUNTY. FRIDAY THERE IS STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR A SHOWER OR TWO OVER TRINITY COUNTY AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO SINK SOUTH AND OUT OF THE AREA.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE DISTRICT TODAY AND EARLY FRIDAY. DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS AND SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND AS THE SYSTEM SHIFTS INLAND AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. THE UPPER LOW. AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES SOUTH. SHOWER CHANCES TO DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES TOWARDS LAS VEGAS.
712 AM EDT THU MAY 7 2015 A WARM FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO WILL DRIFT NORTH OVER THE LOCAL AREA TODAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. THE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY INTO FRIDAY. IT APPEARS THIS LOWER CLOUD IS GOING TO MAKE A RUN FOR CRAWFORD AND ERIE COUNTIES THIS MORNING. SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL CONTINUE TO CREEP UP TODAY AS THE SURFACE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE AREA.
PARTICULARLY AT NORTHERN TERMINALS WHERE EASTERLY LOW- LEVEL FLOW EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FOLLOWING PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT. /ISSUED 402 AM CDT THU MAY 7 2015/ FAIRLY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS A DEEP UPPER LEVEL WRN US TROF AND ASSOCIATED STRONG CLOSED LOW ORGANIZE OVER THE SWRN STATES. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. THE UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW EJECTS NEWD ON A PROJECTED PATH SUCH THAT PARTS OF THE FCST AREA MAY GET DRY SLOTTED.
LATEST AVAILABLE IR IMAGERY AS OF 700 AM OVERLAID WITH MODEL STREAMLINE ANALYSIS DETAILS THE CONTINUED SPLIT FLOW AROUND A DOUBLE MID AND UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXTENDING FROM OHIO SOUTH SOUTHEAST TO EAST OF SAVANNAH. WITH 30 TO 40 KNOTS AROUND THE BASE OF THE BOTTOM OF THE TROUGH. AT THE SURFACE AND IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE LEVELS. THE 12Z MORNING SOUNDING IS SOMEWHAT MOIST IN THE LOWER LEVELS. IN THE LOWER 70S ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN. BUT EVEN IF ENOUGH HEATING BACKS THE LOWER LEVEL WINDS TO MORE NORTHEAST.
STRONG CLOSED LOW CIRCULATION WILL BE SPINNING TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS AREA WITH DYNAMICAL FORCING BECOMING PROMINENT BY LATE IN THE DAY.
1017 AM EDT THU MAY 7 2015 WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL DRIFT OFF THE EAST COAST.