Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1126 PM EST Tue Jan 19 2021 Accumulating snow showers are likely through Wednesday, with highest amounts in the eastern ridges and I-80 corridor.
/issued 841 PM CST Tue Jan 19 2021/ A cold front continues to move through North Mississippi this evening. A cold front has moved across most of the Midsouth approaching Tupelo and Clarksdale, MS. A weak ridge will build in tomorrow, becoming centered over the Mississippi River Valley tomorrow evening. As the ridge axis shifts farther East tomorrow night, rain will return to the Midsouth.
Ridge axis is sliding east of the region, allowing for a light west-southwest flow to work over the area. Variant here is what locales are seeing the increasing west-southwest downslope winds, the warmer temps are occurring. This is going to be ahead of an approaching frontal boundary associated with aforementioned upper trough in the northern Plains.
Cold front working its way through the area this evening, but nothing special to mention as no precip moving in with this boundary. Dewpoints dropped a bit behind the front into the low 30s, with upper 20s further upstream, so expecting lows in the low 30s and upper 20s by sunrise. High pressure will keep fair wx in place through Wednesday with winds backing to the SW late in the day.
Another chilly morning in store for us as high pressure sits to over northern Florida.
/22/ A weak cold front continues to stall above the I-20 corridor so places north of I-20 will see rain showers throughout the night. With the increased rain chances, temperatures tonight will be on the warmer side especially for areas below I-20.
With the low level jet pointed into northeast Illinois, expect gusts to hang on into the evening before this jet core moves off to the eastern Great Lakes.
Southerly winds have already started increasing into the area early this morning with the ridge axis shifting off to the east and temperatures west have already started to recover early this morning. Of course, with fresh snow on the ground, some blowing snow is possible north again today though the warmer temperatures and melting should help put a damper on that this afternoon.
As we move into the evening and overnight hours, surface winds will back from a westerly component to a southerly component, signaling the passage of a subtle warm front. An overrunning event in the middle of the night in January can sometimes lead to freezing rain concerns, however surface temps and the overall low level thermal profile should stay just warm enough to limit that concern.
However it will take the day to displace the resident cold airmass in place, so highs once again will struggle to crack the freezing mark. Further help comes as the upper trough that has lingered over the central Great Lakes the past couple days finally pushes east of the region later today allowing for more zonal flow aloft.
257 AM CST Wed Jan 20 2021 Clouds continue to gradually clear out of the area this morning behind a weak cold front that moved through on Tuesday.
/issued 812 PM EST Tue Jan 19 2021/ High pressure is centered over north Florida this evening. A cold front will be stalling across north Florida tomorrow as high pressure remains across south FL. Ridging remains in place across the area then through the week. The boundary then settles south and east over the weekend as high pressure builds from the Atlantic, and this ridging will remain across the area through the end of the period. Light winds and seas will be in place through the period as high pressure remain across the waters.
Cold front working its way through the area this evening, but nothing special to mention as no precip moving in with this boundary. Dewpoints dropped a bit behind the front into the low 30s, with upper 20s further upstream, so expecting lows in the low 30s and upper 20s by sunrise. A weak front has moved through most of the area and high pressure will follow. High pressure will keep fair wx in place through Wednesday with winds backing to the SW late in the day.
Aside from a few flurries, dry conditions are expected until later in the weekend, when a low pressure system will bring rain and snow chances back to central Indiana. High pressure building in from the west should create clearing skies by late morning, and expect to see a good bit of sunshine later today. Cold advection though will prevent this from warming temperatures by a lot, and the result will be highs a few degrees cooler than yesterday. With high pressure to the southeast, this will bring an increased pressure gradient across the area, and the result could again be some gusty winds, albeit less than those during the current overnight hours due to a lesser gradient.
1013 PM MST Tue Jan 19 2021 Current surface trof across eastern Montana into eastern Wyoming.
Given that a cold frontal passage remains on the way, the winds have the potential to remain strong for several more hours, making for difficult travel, especially for high profile vehicles. By Wednesday afternoon we could see gusts to around 40 mph out of the northwest with the passage of a cold front. Another cold front drops south Wednesday Night which will usher in the colder temperatures the remainder of the week as an upper trough moves into the area.
230 AM CST Wed Jan 20 2021 Mostly clear skies are ahead this morning as high pressure moves across the Mid-South. Winds will shift towards southerly later in the day as the high moves eastward. Low pressure in Canada, moving into Ontario tonight, is the driver of the southerly winds, which will be a little breezy, gusting to 20 mph late this afternoon through tonight. A closed low off the California coast will begin to move across the Southern U.
259 AM EST Wed Jan 20 2021 A cold front will move through the region this morning with limited moisture. High pressure will settle over the region through tonight.
255 AM EST Wed Jan 20 2021 Snow showers should taper off by this afternoon behind an exiting cold front.
We lie within split upper level flow today ahead of a surface cold front Wind could get a bit gusty this morning a some of the stronger wind aloft may get to the surface at times, especially near and north of the tri- cities. I ticked high temperatures down a tad as it appears the cold front will come through a few hours earlier than anticipated. Near critical conditions are anticipated between noon and 5, and I anticipate pretty good gusts just behind the cold front. Thursday will be cooler, yet still above normal in the 40s for highs as we will lie just west of the confluence of the northern and southern branch of the jet, putting us still in the split flow region.
The wind is due to a weather system moving northeast of WY, which created a tighter pressure gradient and a strong lee side trough. The wind will be decreasing later this morning and during the afternoon as the gradient lessens and the lee trough weakens. The longwave trough still looks to dig down the West Coast Thursday night.
Another dry but weak cold front looks to move south across KS on Thu, with compressional heating ahead of the front leading to another above normal temperature day on Thu as well. Warm advection associated with the low pressure area, suggests a rain chance for most locations as surface temperature climb above seasonal normals.
06Z surface data has high pressure from the southern Plains into the upper Great Lakes. Dry conditions will be seen today and tonight as high pressure moves into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. Above freezing for Thursday.
At the surface, a trof axis will linger across the High Plains. Breezy to gusty southwesterly winds ahead of the sfc trof axis are expected for much of the day. Burning is discouraged given the higher fire risk. The sfc trof will fragment and push eastward across the state. As a result of the warmer highs, there may be a limited fire weather threat.
With the low level jet pointed into northeast Illinois, expect gusts to hang on into the evening before this jet core moves off to the eastern Great Lakes. And while colder air will ooze in from the north, the true cold front will not arrive until Thursday evening.
Quiet weather is expected to continue for the next 24 hours with high pressure still the dominate feature. Afternoon highs will generally range from the low to mid 60s across the northern areas to the upper 60s to near 70 across the Florida big bend.
507 AM CST Wed Jan 20 2021 Under the influence of low-level ridging, a clear sky continues across the region, a nice change from the previous several days. By this evening the low-level ridging will have moved east out of the region, and a weak low will move through the lower Mississippi Valley. This low, combined with an area of weak low-level frontogenesis will generate rain across southern Missouri and much of Arkansas this evening. Continued WAA into the evening will keep overnight lows warmer than the previous nights, bottoming out in the upper-20s near the Missouri-Iowa border and in the 30s across areas to the south. MRM A dry cold front will move through the region Thursday evening.
The cold front is now to the south of the forecast area. Temperatures will continue to fall this morning with values dropping to the low to mid 30s by daybreak. Some locations could top out in the low 50s if the clouds are slower to return this afternoon than forecast. The low-level high will shift to the east later this evening into tonight with southwesterly flow returning in the low levels. In the mid and upper levels, a northwesterly flow trough will move into the Tennessee Valley later tonight.
504 AM MST Wed Jan 20 2021 Upper low well southwest of the area off the coast of the Baja Peninsula this morning, leaving moderate w-nw flow aloft across CO. Plus side to the wind will be much warmer temps, and a few near 60F readings look likely on the plains, mainly over the far east where little/no snow cover is left. Snow covered areas farther west and weakly mixed interior valleys should stay cooler, though even here readings should jump several degf from yesterday.
304 AM CST Wed Jan 20 2021 06Z surface data has high pressure from the southern Plains into the upper Great Lakes. Dry conditions will be seen today and tonight as high pressure moves into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. Above freezing for Thursday.
813 AM EST Wed Jan 20 2021 High pressure will continue to keep South Florida dry today. Dry and pleasant weather will remain in place through Thursday thanks to high pressure that is anchored over the southeast CONUS. NE flow around the periphery of the ridge will continue to moderate temperatures back to near seasonable and slightly above.
Dry and pleasant weather will remain in place through Thursday thanks to high pressure that is anchored over the southeast CONUS. NE flow around the periphery of the ridge will continue to moderate temperatures back to near seasonable and slightly above.
/issued 430 AM CST Wed Jan 20 2021/ Latest surface analysis places a 1031mb high pressure center over Little Rock, Arkansas at this hour. A cold front is nearly stationary from Aberdeen, Mississippi west southwest into the ArkLaMiss region. Temperatures range from near freezing across the north to the upper 30s further south. High pressure will be short-lived today as it will quickly push east this afternoon.
615 AM EST Wed Jan 20 2021 A dry cold front will move offshore this morning. The high pressure will be overhead tonight and early Wednesday, before shifting offshore late Wednesday and Wednesday night.
523 AM CST Wed Jan 20 2021 982mb low pressure across nrn Saskatchewan this morning will move southeast into Manitoba today. The influence of the low pressure on wind speeds across Nebraska this morning vanishes as the low moves into Manitoba this afternoon. The temperature forecast leans on the warmer guidance blend. A cold front will back into the region tonight and Canadian high pressure will slowly build south through the nrn high plains Thursday.
The highest gusts will occur at the higher elevations outside the Valley, specifically in the Devils Lake Basin during the 17Z to 23Z time frame. Colder air will filter south behind a cold front which passes through Thursday.
Secondary cold front extends from KN27 to KBVI at 12Z accompanied by a broken band of snow showers of varying intensity. Airmass remains rather dry and fairly warm over the lower Susquehanna Valley with temps holding steady or rising to around 40F in the HRB/York/Lancaster metro area as of 09Z. RWIS road temps are also above 32F in this area which makes this area more vulnerable to flash freezing should snow showers/squalls survive and maintain intensity as they move farther way from the high terrain. Low pressure tracking to the north will drag a dry cold front through CPA by Thursday night.
Airmass remains rather dry and fairly warm over the lower Susquehanna Valley with temps holding steady or rising to around 40F in the HRB/York/Lancaster metro area as of 09Z. RWIS road temps are also above 32F in this area which makes this area more vulnerable to flash freezing should snow showers/squalls survive and maintain intensity as they move farther way from the high terrain. Low pressure tracking to the north will drag a dry cold front through CPA by Thursday night.
One of these northern systems will translate through the Northern Plains today pushing a weak cold front through the area by tonight. Temperatures will be quite pleasant today despite winds of 30-35 mph as southwest flow helps advect warmer temperatures into the area. Slightly cooler temperatures for tomorrow behind the front, but still well above normal for January.
Gusty winds around 25-30 mph will make the apparent temperatures feel a bit cooler, but still not too bad for mid January.
A cold front moving south through Arkansas this morning will slow as it approaches the area.
A weak warm front will lift north by this evening as a weak upper disturbance passes over SRN AR. A new cold front will drop SE into the state by Thu morning. A reinforcing shot of drier/cooler air will be seen by late Thu night into Fri morning.
359 AM MST Wed Jan 20 2021 A relatively weak jet streak over northwest Montana will bring very light high-elevation snow (and possibly mixed with freezing drizzle) to northwest Montana today. There is a very low chance that freezing drizzle will impact roadway surfaces this morning in the Flathead Valley and east toward Marias Pass on US Highway 2. Daytime temperatures are anticipated to warm above freezing for most valleys across the region.
Split flow continues early this morning, with a progressive northern stream trough over the Canadian Rockies and a slow, nearly cut-off southern stream trough off the southern California coast. This has allowed temperatures to fall into the low 20s and upper teens, especially in the typically colder low-lying locations. Some spots across north-central Kansas may even hit the low 60s, where 850 mb temps will be slightly warmer and thinner high clouds may allow for greater insolation. Overnight and into tomorrow, winds will weaken as the stronger pressure gradient moves east of the area and the cold front stalls nearby. The better CAA will take place tomorrow night, as high pressure builds southward across the region.
Thus, the High Wind Warning remains in effect until 11 am for that area. Low pressure will keep chances for light snow mainly to the south during this period, but will keep an eye on the southern zones.
840 AM EST Wed Jan 20 2021 Snow showers should taper off by this afternoon behind an exiting cold front.
620 AM EST Wed Jan 20 2021 A dry cold front will move offshore this morning. The high pressure will be overhead tonight and early Wednesday, before shifting offshore late Wednesday and Wednesday night.
314 AM CST Wed Jan 20 2021 Split flow continues early this morning, with a progressive northern stream trough over the Canadian Rockies and a slow, nearly cut-off southern stream trough off the southern California coast. This has allowed temperatures to fall into the low 20s and upper teens, especially in the typically colder low-lying locations. Some spots across north-central Kansas may even hit the low 60s, where 850 mb temps will be slightly warmer and thinner high clouds may allow for greater insolation. Overnight and into tomorrow, winds will weaken as the stronger pressure gradient moves east of the area and the cold front stalls nearby. The better CAA will take place tomorrow night, as high pressure builds southward across the region.
539 AM CST Wed Jan 20 2021 (Today and tonight) An upper low is off the Baja California coast early this morning, with southwest flow aloft ahead of this system over our area. Considerable moisture will remain in the lower to mid levels and will have a possibility for an additional embedded disturbance to approach the area.
Unseasonably mild and dry conditions will prevail through Thursday as high pressure builds inland.
/issued 337 AM CST Wed Jan 20 2021/ A weak disturbance lifting northeast around the upper level low pressure system off northern Baja will cause light rain to expand into the southern Rolling Plains this morning. The "warmer" temperatures won't last long.
430 AM CST Wed Jan 20 2021 Latest surface analysis places a 1031mb high pressure center over Little Rock, Arkansas at this hour. A cold front is nearly stationary from Aberdeen, Mississippi west southwest into the ArkLaMiss region. Temperatures range from near freezing across the north to the upper 30s further south. High pressure will be short-lived today as it will quickly push east this afternoon.
/issued 331 AM EST Wed Jan 20 2021/ A weak cold front continues to push through the area at this hour without much fanfare. Not getting temps to reach freezing anymore so do not feel freezing rain will be a problem but there could be alight mix or rain and snow at the onset for the higher elevations.
330 AM CST Wed Jan 20 2021 982mb low pressure across nrn Saskatchewan this morning will move southeast into Manitoba today. The influence of the low pressure on wind speeds across Nebraska this morning vanishes as the low moves into Manitoba this afternoon. The temperature forecast leans on the warmer guidance blend. A cold front will back into the region tonight and Canadian high pressure will slowly build south through the nrn high plains Thursday.
447 AM MST Wed Jan 20 2021 Upper low well southwest of the area off the coast of the Baja Peninsula this morning, leaving moderate w-nw flow aloft across CO. Plus side to the wind will be much warmer temps, and a few near 60F readings look likely on the plains, mainly over the far east where little/no snow cover is left. Snow covered areas farther west and weakly mixed interior valleys should stay cooler, though even here readings should jump several degf from yesterday.
A cold front is now sliding south and beginning to slow down and fizzle out this morning.
337 AM CST Wed Jan 20 2021 A weak disturbance lifting northeast around the upper level low pressure system off northern Baja will cause light rain to expand into the southern Rolling Plains this morning. The "warmer" temperatures won't last long.
Clear skies and cooler temperatures are present across the region early this morning. Highs will be a little cooler in the valley, but milder across higher terrain as cold advection wanes. There is enough model agreement that a seasonably cold upper trof will move into Norcal on Fri giving the CWA a chance of precip.
The remnants of a stalled cold front along the coast will lift north today as a warm front, shifting winds to the east this afternoon. High temperatures will be a little warmer Thursday, with highs reaching into the mid 70s.
452 AM MST Wed Jan 20 2021 Upper low well southwest of the area off the coast of the Baja Peninsula this morning, leaving moderate w-nw flow aloft across CO. Plus side to the wind will be much warmer temps, and a few near 60F readings look likely on the plains, mainly over the far east where little/no snow cover is left. Snow covered areas farther west and weakly mixed interior valleys should stay cooler, though even here readings should jump several degf from yesterday.
619 AM EST Wed Jan 20 2021 Cold advection in the lowest 4000 ft agl will lead to extensive stratocumulus deck today across Southeast Michigan. However it will take the day to displace the resident cold airmass in place, so highs once again will struggle to crack the freezing mark. Further help comes as the upper trough that has lingered over the central Great Lakes the past couple days finally pushes east of the region later today allowing for more zonal flow aloft.
351 AM CST Wed Jan 20 2021 An upper trough and impulse moves through the northern plains today with associated dry frontal boundary that should pass through later this afternoon and evening. Ahead of the boundary though, we're seeing a rise in temperatures overnight, as good mixing and westerly wind component will make for a warmer day today. Expect highs to reach into the 40s for the FA before the cold front passes through. Could also see some patchy blowing snow today, especially over the coteau region, though once temperatures get above freezing chances will decrease. Aside from the wind, no other significant weather over the short term, though passage of the cold front starts a cooling trend towards near normal as we move toward the weekend.
452 AM MST Wed Jan 20 2021 Western NOAM troughing will support much cooler and continued semi-unsettled conds. Ahead of the trough, mild conds are expected with highs in the 40s and 50s, warmest over the southern half.
As a result mostly clear skies and cooler conditions are occurring across the area. Temperatures are in the 20s to the lower 30s early this morning. Winds will become south to southwesterly behind the high. The pressure gradient will tighten between the departing high to the southeast and the low pressure to the northwest. Warmer temperatures will also occur today as highs generally warm into the low to middle 50s. A warmer air mass will remain in place across the region again on Thursday.
Center of the upper low currently spinning about 300 miles southwest of the San Diego coast will continue to push east over the next 24 hours placing the low center over northern Baja by Thursday morning. As this low pushes east, moisture will continue to stream north into southern CA and portions of southern Nevada and northwest Arizona. Although this low has been sitting and spinning over the eastern Pacific for about 24 hours, it has not really tapped into any significant deep moisture and QPF amounts are expected to remain fairly light at least over portions of our CWA, but areas closer to the US/Mexico border could certainly see much higher rainfall amounts.
510 AM EST Wed Jan 20 2021 Snow showers should taper off by this afternoon behind an exiting cold front.
/22/ Today and Tonight: early morning surface analysis had a stalled front from just south of I-20 west of the Mississippi river extending east northeast to just south of the Highway 82 corridor in our northeast. High temperatures will be held to the 50s again across the northern half of our CWA and in the low to mid 60s south. Morning lows will again be rather mild Thursday ranging from the lower 40s northeast to the lower 50s southwest.
/Today through Thursday/ Stalled cold front now s of our region this morning, with associated light shwrs continuing to the n of the boundary. Weak upper ridging to begin to flatten out this aftn/evening, allowing for lift associated with a closed upper low just off the nrn Baja Coast to begin increasing and interacting with the shallow cold airmass in place across much of our region. Shwrs will continue along and n of the sfc boundary Thursday, as an impulse rounding the base of the trof over sern Canada forces it to drift back swd. Convection to pick up intensity by the aftn, as the upper flow becomes wswly and lift increases ahead of the Baja trof, now open and ejecting ewd.