Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
106 PM EST Sun Nov 19 2017 Gusty wind in the wake of a cold front can be expected today along with scattered rain and snow showers. Will keep PoPs as is, with the highest values north of I-80 and in the mountains as saturation in the boundary layer taps into the best snow growth region through this evening.
1244 PM EST Sun Nov 19 2017 Gusty winds today in the wake of a cold front can be expected today along with scattered precipitation changing to snow over the course of the day. Updated to end the wind advisory, as gusts in the higher elevations are now coming in at 35 MPH or less. presenting the best opportunity for accumulating snow mainly along and north of I-80 and in the higher terrain.
154 PM EST Sun Nov 19 2017 Dry and cool high pressure will build across the area through Monday. Moisture will return mid to late week as the weak low pressure develops over the Gulf of Mexico. An upper level trough over the eastern CONUS will move offshore tonight. A dry airmass combined with diminishing winds and clear skies will allow temperatures to cool into the low to mid 30s. Dry and cool air mass over the area Monday with temperatures ranging from the upper 50s north to the lower 60s south.
259 PM EST Sun Nov 19 2017 High pressure centered over Texas will move northeast across Tennessee and lower Ohio Valley Monday before moving off the mid Atlantic Coast Monday night.
This may aid in keeping overnight lows warmer than expected. Warmer air will move into central into SE ND this aftn but light east wind will keep NE ND into NW MN on the cold side. Warm advection in the low levels will kick in later tonight as winds turn southerly. A system supported by an upper level trough will bring the chance for some precipitation on Monday afternoon through Monday night. With the warmer temperatures on Monday precipitation would likely start as rain before transitioning to snow.
1240 PM EST Sun Nov 19 2017 A strong cold front will continue to move through the area early this morning and move offshore by afternoon.
104 PM EST Sun Nov 19 2017 A strong cold front will continue moving east of the area this afternoon with high pressure building to the southwest of the region in its wake.
Highs today and Monday will be significantly cooler than we've seen these last few days. Temps along the I-10 corridor will remain in the lower 40s with coastal areas in the lower 50s tonight. High pressure will continue to build into the region. Winds should drop off all areas this afternoon as high pressure continues to build in. /issued 355 AM CST Sun Nov 19 2017/ Sfc observations currently show the cold front which passed the forecast area last evening has now moved off the sern LA coastline and lies well beyond the marine zones this morning. Main story into tomorrow will again be the much cooler temperatures as highs each day are expected to top out in the lower/mid 60s (as opposed to our recent maxes around 80).
High pressure will continue to settle in across the region with NE winds expected to relax through the evening. Winds will gradually shift east to southeast Monday as high pressure slides east. As high pressure builds in, winds should diminish to below criteria levels through the afternoon from north to south.
High Forecast Confidence Filtered sunshine is occurring across most of the region this afternoon, with afternoon high temperatures topping out around the freezing mark.
Best downward motion looks like it will remain over and very near the mtns as well as Albany county with upward motion a little farther east over the high plains. Will keep current high wind watch/warning as is, thinking that the high winds will have some problem progressing much east of the mtns. A backdoor cool front will then pass over the plains Monday night with some snow showers increasing over the higher mtns as some moisture advects over them in northwesterly flow.
Latest surface analysis shows a large area of high pressure over the region and just off the West Coast. Over the next 24 hours or so a battle between the ridge and frontal boundary will unfold. As of now, the models have the ridge of high pressure winning out. Did cut back on rain chances south of the of the Golden Gate, but there could be a stray shower early tonight before the ridge builds in tomorrow.
High pressure is currently over north Texas this afternoon. The high will slide east across the forecast area tonight. The high will slide to our east by Monday afternoon allowing winds to shift to the south and bring milder air into the region with highs expected to reach the mid 50s.
Forecast trended toward slightly warmer high temps along with slightly lower dewpoints which results in near red flag criteria.
/issued 355 AM CST Sun Nov 19 2017/ (Today and Tonight) As high pressure dominates the region, for the next 24 hours, expect dry conditions and unseasonably cool temperatures.
Otherwise, a ridge of high pressure builds over the region through mid week. The first focus in the short term weather will be the high clouds streaming over California from the Pacific Ocean. Otherwise, a mid to upper level ridge dominates southern and central California through the Thanksgiving holiday. Models are in good agreement that this ridge will drive any storm systems to the north of the forecast area.
Main concern over the next 24 hours will be the high wind potential over the higher mountains and east slopes after midnight tonight. Temperatures will be warmer today as 700mb temperatures climb to around +0C by later today. Speeds of 25 to 40 mph along with low humidity in the low teens will increase fire danger - see fire discussion below. Moisture in the northwest flow will push into the mountains in the late afternoon, with snow falling over the high country.
High clouds are spreading rapidly east across Oregon and western Idaho this afternoon as a Pacific warm front approaches.
345 PM CST Sun Nov 19 2017 The main story for today is the much cooler and drier air in place as high pressure continues building into the region. The Alexandria area will see lows hovering near freezing Monday morning. Cooler temperatures will again be the main story on Monday, maxing out in the mid-60s for most of the region during the afternoon.
High pressure encompassing the region will keep winds calm to light through about 14-15Z before southerly return flow begins to increase ahead of the next cold front. A beautiful fall day today as high pressure encompasses the region.
Temperatures will be overall cooler than normal to start, then warm toward the end of the week. Aloft, the deep upper low pressure trough has moved to the eastern U.
115 PM PST Sun Nov 19 2017 High pressure aloft along the West Coast will bring unseasonably warm weather this week.
A Canadian high pressure center was tracking south of the region, which will cause surface winds to eventually shift around back to the south. Sub freezing temperatures can be expected in the eastern Ozarks, an area that will have less mixing due to light and variable winds. On Monday, conditions will be ideal for outdoor activities as temperatures approach the lower 60s in many locations.
1210 PM EST Sun Nov 19 2017 High pressure will build over the region today through Monday, before moving off the coast Monday night.
High pressure will then bring light winds from the north tonight and northeast to east on Monday.
257 PM EST Sun Nov 19 2017 High pressure and dry conditions will build into the region through Monday. This will allow the low level flow to gradually back around to more of a westerly flow overnight.
SHORT TERM (Now through Monday Night): A very nice, albeit cooler day across deep south Texas. In fact, moisture seems to be slightly higher with this impulse than with the cold front that moved through last night.
The main story of the short term will be the flattening ridge of high pressure overhead followed by the arrival of a upper-level trough and accompanying cold front at the surface.
Widespread freezing temperatures for eastern valleys tonight, then daytime temperatures rebound quickly to near record or record levels by Thanksgiving.
332 PM EST Sun Nov 19 2017 A weak cold front will approach and move through the region tonight bringing slightly cooler temperatures to South Florida. This front will have very little moisture to work with as it passes through, so the rain chances will be low, however, the highest chances tonight will be confined to the east coast as well as the marine areas.
213 PM CST Sun Nov 19 2017 150 PM CST High pressure is centered over the southern Great Plains this afternoon with ridging extending into the Upper Midwest. Ridge axis will gradually traverse the CWA this evening and tonight with winds backing to the southwest behind. Expect highs right around 50F during the day Monday with mostly sunny skies and breezy southwest winds on the backside of the ridge which will settle across the Tennessee Valley. Deubelbeiss 212 PM CST Still relatively warmer at the start of the period with upper level trough and surface reflection well to the north.
The change in wind direction will bring a warmer air mass back into MO/IL, and highs on Monday are expected to be in the mid-50s to lower 60s.
Pleasant and cool late fall weather conditions are in place across South Central Texas as temperatures have only climbed into the 60s with mostly clear skies and NE 5-10 mph winds under high pressure. This forecast is bit cooler than model guidance which tends to struggle on nights with more efficient radiational cooling, but the high clouds should be enough to prevent spots from falling below freezing as supported by even the lowest ensemble members in the MOS guidance.
Afternoon satellite analysis reveals larger scale troughing from the northern Plains through the Great Lakes into New England. anchored by closed upper level low pressure over north-central Canada. Several smaller scale short waves are seen rotating through the main upper trough. low amplitude cyclonic flow lingers across the western Great Lakes with lake aggregate troughing in the usual location from eastern Lake Superior down into northern Lake Huron. With the departure of the primary lead short wave and intervention of surface ridging/drier air. Much improved conditions anticipated Monday as warmer air at the surface and aloft surges back into the region.
Otherwise mostly sunny conditions with light winds will allow for high temperatures in the lower 40s near the southern Red River Valley to mid 20s where snow cover and lingering clouds will moderate high temperatures further to the north. Warmer air will move into central into SE ND this aftn but light east wind will keep NE ND into NW MN on the cold side. Warm advection in the low levels will kick in later tonight as winds turn southerly. A system supported by an upper level trough will bring the chance for some precipitation on Monday afternoon through Monday night. With the warmer temperatures on Monday precipitation would likely start as rain before transitioning to snow.
Sfc ridging present attm over much of TX/OK will also continue to shift E into the region later this afternoon and remain in place overnight, resulting in N winds 6-10kts this afternoon becoming calm or Lt/Vrb after 00Z. The cirrus is moving to the ESE in the base of the long wave with a fast short wave ridge over W TX right now. Look for the coldest temps East of the ridge axis for our North and East early tomorrow.
In fact, a mesolow over north-central Lake Superior will potentially help support the higher end of these totals over easter Alger County and northern Luce County. Monday: As the aforementioned high pressure system slides to the east, south winds will increase, allowing for more WAA into the area. Also, with the warm air advection, temperatures are expected to warmer, with highs reaching into the upper 30s to around 40 degrees in most locations. Potential exists for a more significant winter system and following moderate LES Fri into the weekend, but there still plenty of uncertainty with the track/strength of the low. West to west-northwest winds of 20 to 30 knots are expected through this evening as pressure gradient remains fairly tight ahead of high pressures building into the area.
High pressure will move across the area later today through tonight, with NW winds today becoming light tonight. It will be noticeably cooler today across the area.
The sharp surface cold front that blew through here yesterday evening has pushed all the way into central Florida. The latest satellite imagery depicts the broad trough over the eastern Conus. A small band of moisture rotated through this trough this morning and was responsible for a few clouds. A large majority of locations will experience freezing conditions overnight, and a Freeze Warning remains in effect. The cold front has pushed through the entire state of Alabama.
This will allow for the chance of some freezing fog advertised by higher resolution guidance like the HRRR/RAP/CONSMOS near and north of the Devils Lake area. Building winds here after midnight should help scour out any potential freezing fog should it build. Monday will be breezier as a deepening low pressure system moves across southern Manitoba. This low will also bring a cold front and some light precipitation chances in the form of light snow, mainly for the Lake of the Woods area. As the cold front passes through the region Monday afternoon, gusty northwest winds exceeding 25 mph will build lasting through the overnight. Biggest impact will probably be the gusty northwest winds and colder air moving in behind the sfc cold front.
Models remain in excellent agreement through the weekend, depicting gradual height/thickness rises associated with a building ridge across the Intermountain West.
A upper level trough will continue to move eastward, leaving more zonal flow in its wake.
Tonight and Monday The latest RAP analysis and satellite/radar imagery show a large area of high pressure stretching from northern Quebec to the western Great Lakes early this afternoon. As the high pressure system departs and a storm system moves towards the region on Monday, precip chances are the main forecast concern. Meanwhile, high pressure and associated very dry air will remain present over north-central and northeast WI. With some clouds and a persistent southeast wind, temps will be warmer than last night with lows ranging from around 20 over Vilas county to the upper 20s near Lake Michigan. Highs should range from the low to mid 40s for much of the region.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 44 52 45 59 / 10 40 30 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 41 58 44 61 / 0 10 40 10 Oak Ridge, TN 42 57 46 63 / 0 20 40 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 35 58 39 61 / 0 10 40 20.
828 PM EDT Sun Mar 25 2018 Early evening IR satellite imagery is showing a backdoor cold front pushing southwest into northeastern Florida. Mid Atlantic high pressure will slide south towards Florida and the northeastern Gulf of Mexico tonight and Monday, with light winds turning to easterly and increasing by Monday morning. The ridge of high pressure will gradually slide south through the middle of the week, with winds over the eastern Gulf of Mexico turning to southerly and becoming lighter through late in the week.
A deep trough will move over the Rockies on Monday, enhancing surface lee cyclogenesis across eastern CO/KS. Increasing low-mid level southerly winds ahead of this low will transport moisture northward across the Upper Midwest. Rain will end from west to east Monday night as a surface inverted trough moves across the region. With high low-level moisture and light winds within the trough axis, could see reduced visibility in fog for some areas.
IFR conditions possible mainly across northwest Oklahoma toward and after 06Z as richer moisture moves north with retreating warm front. A warm front is expected to gradually lift northward and is forecast to be located just north of the Red River by late this afternoon. In addition, if a storm is able to track along the warm front, enhanced low-level wind shear and will result in an attendant tornado threat.
Upper low continues to move east of the forecast area into Idaho. Upper ridge is building offshore with a northwest flow aloft over the region.
/issued 400 PM CDT Sun Mar 25 2018/ Latest UA analysis and WV imagery shows modest ridging over the region while an upper trough is currently crossing the western US. This will keep warmer than normal conditions over the area the next couple of days with lows in the 60s and highs around 80s. The pattern aloft will amplify early this week between a ridge over the eastern CONUS and the trough over the west. The trough is progged to deepen and become positively tilted over AZ/western NM, moving very slowly to the east through the middle of the week.
The airmass behind this low will not be all that cool, and in fact highs Monday will be warmer than today for a fair portion of western and central Kansas. Early in this period, a positively-tilted trough axis will move across the Rockies and the adjacent Great Plains, leading to minimal precipitation chances across much of southwest Kansas.
958 PM EDT Sun Mar 25 2018 High pressure will move east of the region tonight into Monday. In inverted trof axis will combine with the low level moisture to produce a stray light shower south of CVG. As the high continues to move to the east on Monday, the low level moisture will gradually spread north then eventually northeast. Despite clouds (and increasing in the east), temperatures will moderate, and will range from the upper 40s across east central Indiana to the lower 50s elsewhere. For Monday night, a mid level ridge axis will move east of the area, This will allow a moist southwest flow to develop on its backside. Clouds and winds staying up from the south will keep temperatures warmer. Lows will range from the upper 30s far east to the lower 40s elsewhere.
It seems that the cooler solution has been on the winning side of this match up.
MVFR CIGS will then spread quickly north through the area after about 20-21z Monday as moisture moves in ahead of an approaching low pressure system.
635 PM CDT Sun Mar 25 2018 High pressure ridge is extending back into the Midwest from Eastern Canada this afternoon, with mostly sunny skies resulting going into the overnight. The upper ridge over the Midwest shifts slightly to the east putting the region into a more southwesterly flow regime, with a series of short waves rotating around the deep trough over the southwestern CONUS.
Temperatures will be slightly warmer than they have been over the last couple of days, but will still remain about five degrees below seasonal values. Precipitation will spread east from low pressure over the Plains. Cloud cover moving in earlier should keep western counties slightly warmer and all rain, while locations generally to the east of Pittsburgh could have surface temperatures drop low enough for precipitation to start as freezing rain thanks to warmer air air aloft. While freezing rain is far from a certainty this far out, felt that it was time to add a mention in the HWO for eastern counties due to the possibility of some minor ice accumulation.
746 PM EDT Sun Mar 25 2018 VFR under high pressure. /issued 343 PM EDT Sun Mar 25 2018/ High pressure will continue to dominate the weather across South Florida bringing another night of dry conditions. On Monday, an area of low pressure located in the Atlantic waters east of the Carolinas will strengthen and the cold front associated with it will push through South Florida as a back door cold front on Monday night.
734 PM EDT Sun Mar 25 2018 Aviation The region will see a pattern change to warmer and wetter.
713 PM EDT Sun Mar 25 2018 An upper level trough over the northeast will lift out Monday as ridging builds in from the Great Lakes. A slow moving cold front will likely push through the region during the second half of the week. Radar shows a few stubborn sprinkles or flurries over the lower Susq, but the trend continues to be for the activity to diminish in coverage.
1106 PM EDT Sun Mar 25 2018 An upper level trough over the northeast will lift out Monday as ridging builds in from the Great Lakes. A slow moving cold front will likely push through the region during the second half of the week. Radar shows a few stubborn sprinkles or flurries over the lower Susq, but the trend continues to be for the activity to diminish in coverage.
909 PM CDT Sun Mar 25 2018 Southerly flow in the low levels will continue through the night helping to keep the muggy conditions in place. /issued 400 PM CDT Sun Mar 25 2018/ Latest UA analysis and WV imagery shows modest ridging over the region while an upper trough is currently crossing the western US. This will keep warmer than normal conditions over the area the next couple of days with lows in the 60s and highs around 80s. The pattern aloft will amplify early this week between a ridge over the eastern CONUS and the trough over the west. The trough is progged to deepen and become positively tilted over AZ/western NM, moving very slowly to the east through the middle of the week.
704 PM CDT Sun Mar 25 2018 Currently across the area we have upper level ridging with a trough out in the western U. The trough out west will begin to sharpen with strong southwesterly flow aloft setting up over the region. In the lower levels, strong warm air and moisture advection will develop with elevated convection expected late this evening into the overnight hours.
705 PM EDT Sun Mar 25 2018 An upper level trough over the northeast conus will lift out to the east on Monday, as ridging builds in from the Great Lakes. A slow moving cold front will likely push through the region during the second half of the week. Large scale subsidence has overspread the region as of mid afternoon, slapping down the earlier instability which created locally heavy snow showers over parts of the Lower Susq River Valley during the midday hours.
Upper low spinning through southern Idaho with very cold aloft and disturbance ejecting from base of the low into northeast Great Basin inducing cooling cloud tops over western Wyoming.
An upper level ridge will build into the Tennessee valley and southern Appalachians thorugh the period with surface ridging just east of the Appalachians. Winds on the back side of the ridge will produce east to southerly winds gusting up to 15kts at times. Chattanooga Airport, TN 44 52 45 59 / 10 40 30 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 41 58 44 61 / 0 10 40 10 Oak Ridge, TN 42 57 46 63 / 0 20 40 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 35 58 39 61 / 0 10 40 20.
The combination of strengthening forcing in the mid levels and moisture advection in the low levels raises precip chances, primarily late evening and overnight. Dew points remain steady in the lower/mid 30s with the help of persistent southeast winds, while an upslope component increases lift. Where the saturation is confined primarily in the lowest 100mb (SW Neb), added fog/drizzle mention. Went with a general warmer MAV/cooler MET blend, resulting in 40s north of Hwy 2 and 50s south. If things play out like Sat and Sun, the cooler end is more likely, but northerly sfc winds and dropping dew points indicate the shutoff of strong moisture advection.
1243 AM EDT Mon Mar 26 2018 Aviation The region will see a pattern change to warmer and wetter.
Upper-level ridging across the Central CONUS will continue to slide eastward, with resulting southwest flow aloft expected locally. This will occur ahead of a mid to upper-level trough axis as it becomes detached from the main flow aloft. As the trough axis slides further south over the southwestern CONUS, broad southwesterly flow aloft will lift deep moisture fields overhead the local area.
Using a blend of the HREF and the 3km NAM, our southeast CWA could see a mix of freezing rain and sleet before changing over to all snow Monday morning. The ice accumulation graphic from WPC matches the potential for freezing rain. With surface temps hovering around freezing, snowfall amounts of 1-2 inches with isolated higher are possible.
940 PM PDT Sun Mar 25 2018 A low pressure trough over SoCal will move east on Monday as high pressure builds off the coast.
Temperatures will be about 10 to 15 degrees cooler on Monday with the wedge in place over the area.