Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
300 PM CDT Fri Aug 6 2021 A mid level trough was moving across Idaho and into Utah this afternoon and 1930Z. To the south of this feature a upper level high was located across the southwest and eastward into the southern Plains. Tonight the low level jet will increase to around 45 kts across the central Plains transporting additional moisture northward through the night. The lower boundary layer will remain mixed overnight resulting in mild low temperatures in the lower to middle 70s. The mid level trough will move into the central Plains Saturday afternoon increasing forcing for ascent across western into central Kansas.
Winds will generally be light out of the south and southeast, except at FST where the low-level jet will keep winds elevated overnight. This will act to increase heights slightly as well as move the thermal ridge eastward. Temperatures this afternoon will be a couple degrees warmer than yesterday with temperatures near to slightly below normal as the main thermal ridge is still positioned off to the west. Lows will be a degree or two warmer tonight as the ridge continues to move eastward. Tomorrow will be sunny with highs increasing a couple degrees as the ridge builds across the area. Low temperatures Saturday night will be a couple degrees warmer than tonight in response to the increasing daytime highs and slightly stronger winds.
220 PM CDT Fri Aug 6 2021 An upper-level trough moving through will help push the boundary to our west eastward across our area overnight. We'll still have a baroclinic zone over the area on Saturday as the back side of the upper level trough moves through, meaning we'll continue to see a few showers and thunderstorms through the day on Saturday, but especially during the afternoon and evening hours. High pressure will be building in from the west, though, which will bring an end to the showers on Saturday evening.
The main focus will be west of I65 where convergence is better around the base of an upper level trough. due to a layer of warmer temperatures in the mid levels. helping to keep temperatures in the upper 80's with a few places reaching the lower 90's. The upper level trough will continue to move to the east.
Convective potential looks better for tomorrow as the approaching upper level trof slowly pushes across the state with a weak surface boundary running out ahead.
As for the weekend temperatures will be on the rise to the low 90s, but it looks to be a dry weekend. A high pressure begins to move in and will influence our weather through the new work week. Temperatures will warm into the mid 90s with overnight temperatures in the low 70s.
Upper level low moving east of the forecast area this morning. Lots of smoke wrapped around the low, so skies will be pretty smoky for quite a while today as the low slowly moves eastward, but we should start to see improvement in most areas by afternoon.
A warm front pushes north across Upper Michigan on Saturday establishing rich moisture transport within deep southwesterly flow.
1253 PM MDT Fri Aug 6 2021 Slow progressing upper trough will support chances for showers and thunderstorms the next two days. Western CONUS upper ridge will briefly breakdown in the period as series of stronger NE Pac impulses traverse the northern tier allowing strong cold fronts into the northern CONUS. A period of breezy NW winds may materialize in the morning behind the trough.
A 500 mb trough sagging south over East Texas will shift east, allowing broad mid level heights to build over the area. High pressure will continue to dominate the Northwest Gulf. Heat index values will range from 105 to 110 for a couple of hours along the River in both the Lower and Upper Valleys.
This appears to be on the western edge of the high pressure system. This boundary will continue eastward with the approach of an upper-level trough, leading to a better chance for showers and thunderstorms this afternoon into tonight. The aforementioned trough axis will continue to push through the area tonight, keeping at least isolated chances for rain through the early overnight hours. The combination of diurnal heating and convergence near the trough axis will keep chances for afternoon storms mainly east of I-65 Saturday.
BT Today will have seasonal temperatures with a good chance of showers and thunderstorms, with an upper trough swinging through the forecast area. A cold front will push through tonight and turn winds to the northwest with some gusts 20-25 mph (stronger near storms).
High Pressure will move across the region tomorrow with dry conditions and cooler temperatures expected.
The main axis of high pressure has moved east and is now over the Upper OH Valley. This should inhibit any development of fog but also keep a warmer night on tap. The encroachment of the trough will effectively remove that aforementioned capping inversion, allowing for scattered precipitating convection by late morning or early afternoon Saturday.
253 PM CDT Fri Aug 6 2021 Latest water vapor imagery is showing an upper trough moving across Missouri and Illinois while latest surface analysis is showing little reflection of this trough at the surface with a stationary front well north of the area across the Upper Midwest and the northern Plains. There are some scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over central Illinois and southeast Missouri associated with this trough, and there still may be isolated showers and thunderstorm develop ahead of this trough over the eastern half of the area late this afternoon before it moves east of the region tonight. Then mainly dry weather is expect tonight into Saturday evening as the latest run on the HREF is showing the upper ridge currently over the Plains building into the Midwest.
257 PM EDT Fri Aug 6 2021 Weak cyclonic rotation continues over IA/WI/IL with a broad upper trough sinking into the Mississippi Valley. As a result, the hot and muggy conditions will return to central Indiana this weekend with daytime temperatures climbing into the upper 80s tomorrow with dew points in the low 70s. Despite the moisture influx, forcing will be limited and pertaining to just the upper trough. Tonight, the upper trough will push farther into northern Indiana, so shower and thunderstorm chances will become more widespread across the northern third of central Indiana. Tomorrow, shower and thunderstorm chances will become a bit more widespread, but still mainly concentrated over the north and eastern portions of central Indiana as the upper trough traverses the area.
Broad 850mb warm advection accompanies this low level jet, which should be enough to generate spotty shower and storm activity. Where this low and associated warm front end up on Saturday afternoon and evening will be key. Due to the warm 700mb temperatures, storms may hold off until late afternoon/early evening, and since the low level jet pushes eastward into Minnesota fairly quickly, the storm threat should end by mid evening or so. Zonal flow returns to the forecast as a ridge flattens out in the west.
Meanwhile, subtropical high remains sprawled to the west with a ridge axis extending across south Florida and the Gulf of Mexico. This in turn will pivot the ridge axis further north, allowing the weak tropical wave to brush past the Florida Keys Saturday. Otherwise, with the strengthening ridge and the axis shifting north, that will put us under a deep easterly flow for the remainder of the forecast period.
Latest 500 mb height analysis shows a departing mid-level trough over the ArkLaTex, along with a flattened Subtropical Ridge centered over southern Arizona. This ridging will slowly start to slide eastward, resulting in a warming and drying trend for the region this weekend.
Big challenge today forecast-wise will be the high temperatures. Despite the smoke, most communities are running warmer compared to this time 24 hours ago. An upper level low will approach the Pacific Northwest late on Saturday.
244 PM CDT Fri Aug 6 2021 As a discongruous open wave trof drifts across the Tennessee and Ohio River Valleys, associated slight chance pops will continue to nominally impact mainly our northwest and southeast tier counties.
May need to add a mention of smoke in to the grids for the afternoon if the lower visibility trends persist. At the surface, disorganized low pressure will be in place today. Models vary in their timing, so will be interesting to see how quickly the low pressure system tracks east.
Ridging will build back in Saturday leading to a generally dry and sunny day.
209 PM EDT Fri Aug 6 2021 Another dry day Friday, and turning warmer with highs well into the eighties. Today, ridging in place keeps the atmosphere capped though an isolated thunderstorm or two could form somewhere over CNY or NE PA this afternoon. Tomorrow, highs temperatures are a few degrees warmer with higher dew points. Upper level trough currently over the mid-Mississippi Valley will drift to the east and weaken as it runs into upper ridging off the east coast. Meanwhile, a very weak cold front will drift south of Lake Ontario and become nearly stationary while stretched out east-to-west across NY.
A cold front will continue to move slowly across the area and become west-east oriented late this afternoon into this evening as it slowly moves south. This will take the chance pops out of the area tonight with it before this front heads back to the northeast as a warm front late on Sat afternoon. A warm front pushes north across Upper Michigan on Saturday establishing rich moisture transport within deep southwesterly flow.
This change from our recent clear and low humidity wx had occurred with the development of deep SSW flow ahead of a Ms Valley trough. Cape had also developed with around 500 J/kg using the lowest 100mb mixed. The trough will move slowly across the area tonight and Saturday. Slightly enhanced coverage will occur just ahead of the trough, meaning the greatest coverage will shift eastward to the Plateau by Saturday.
A little warmer today than in recent days and expect another climb for tomorrow, with highs in the mid and upper 90s. Upper level ridge building in across the Plains will make for the hottest readings across the area north of I- 20.
These storms will be elevated north of the warm frontal boundary, but there may be sufficient instability and effective shear for some large hail. That will also dictate how quickly the surface warm frontal boundary is able to lift northeast through the area Saturday afternoon into Saturday evening. Somewhat zonal large scale flow will give way to northwest flow for the second half of the week as ridging amplifies across the west.
Low pressure over eastern GA/SC will drift slowly east to northeast through the period. Any showers and a few thunderstorms associated with this low should be mainly confined to areas east of KMCN to KAHN this afternoon and evening.
After a cooler Friday, expect dry conditions and warmer temperatures for the weekend.
A departing upper trough and rising mid level heights will maintain fair weather with some daytime cu. /Issued 837 AM CDT Fri Aug 6 2021/ An upper trough that brought showers and storms to the region yesterday and last night has shifted just east of the forecast area this morning. A few lingering showers remain possible near an associated PV max across portions of NW AR, otherwise expect near or slightly below average temps and dry conditions today in the wake of the upper trough.
Either that or storms in southern MN dive southeast into the area being on the edge of the ridge. Saturday: Much of the cwa should be warm and humid but dry as a warm front will be located well to our north, with low pressure organizing in SD. Highs will be well into the 80s to around 90 with dewpoints in the lower 70s.
149 PM MDT Fri Aug 6 2021 An upper trough will be moving into the Northern Rockies over the weekend, with a low pressure system spinning up over southern Alberta before moving out into the prairie. Warm front lifts east tonight, with the potential for thunderstorms ahead of the front. As the front moves east late tonight, winds will turn west for warmer and drier conditions on Saturday.
Upper ridging begins to nose into the region overnight and Saturday, providing subsidence and drier air aloft to diminish rain chances. As the summertime upper ridge builds back into the area, summertime heat and humidity returns, and heat indices will reach the 105 to 109 range over most of the area.
232 PM CDT Fri Aug 6 2021 The center of an upper level ridge is currently positioned in the southwestern US this afternoon. This short wave will emerge onto the Plains on Saturday and will act to suppress the upper ridge.
308 PM CDT Fri Aug 6 2021 As the upper trough passing across the region, it has combined with heating and ample moisture to generate some showers and isolated thunderstorms across the region. Another quiet night is expected as the upper trough continues to track east. For tomorrow, the upper ridge will begin building back east over our area. Heat indices will remain tolerable for the most part with the highest heat indices being in the west around 95-100 degrees.
For tomorrow, high pressure gradually building into the area will result in lower rain chances/coverage along with an increase in high temperatures (inland highs in the low to mid 90s and heat index values around 105).
212 PM CDT Fri Aug 6 2021 With the approaching upper trough, currently over the Northern Rockies, scattered thunderstorm development is expected to begin later this afternoon across the northern High Plains. Scattered showers with isolated thunderstorms will push east across the CWA overnight as the upper trough advances, with possible re-invigoration of storms across the southeast during the day tomorrow.
/issued 232 PM CDT Fri Aug 6 2021/ The center of an upper level ridge is currently positioned in the southwestern US this afternoon. This short wave will emerge onto the Plains on Saturday and will act to suppress the upper ridge.
A mid level trough was moving across Idaho and into Utah this afternoon and 1930Z. To the south of this feature a upper level high was located across the southwest and eastward into the southern Plains. Tonight the low level jet will increase to around 45 kts across the central Plains transporting additional moisture northward through the night. The lower boundary layer will remain mixed overnight resulting in mild low temperatures in the lower to middle 70s. The mid level trough will move into the central Plains Saturday afternoon increasing forcing for ascent across western into central Kansas.
958 PM EDT Fri Aug 6 2021 The 00z evening sounding at KEY revealed despite steep low-level lapse rates between 1000-900 mb, there was extensive dry air all the way from the low levels to around 600 mb. From synopsis, a ridge of high pressure stretches across the Atlantic, with the axis extending across South Florida.
810 PM EDT Fri Aug 6 2021 Warmer and more humid conditions will gradually build into the region through this upcoming weekend.
This is pretty high based activity especially with dewpoints in the low to mid 40s. We will need to keep an eye on the high wind potential with these storms, due to higher dcape values (1000j/kg). Would not be surprised to see some gusts over 30mph early Saturday morning shortly after daybreak and continue until about midday before diminishing with a much cooler day day expected. Fire Weather concerns Saturday will be very low as afternoon humidity in the low 20 percent range.
The upper trough axis will slowly move east overnight, pushing our best chance of redeveloping showers over the Cumberland Plateau just before sunrise into the mid morning and again in the afternoon thanks to diurnal heating. For now lows are expected to be in the mid to upper 60s, but persistent clouds could keep them warmer, while clear skies over the north and west could allow for additional cooling.
258 PM PDT Fri Aug 6 2021 Cold front will sweep across the Inland Northwest Saturday night.
523 PM MDT Fri Aug 6 2021 Slow progressing upper trough will support chances for showers and thunderstorms the next two days. Western CONUS upper ridge will briefly breakdown in the period as series of stronger NE Pac impulses traverse the northern tier allowing strong cold fronts into the northern CONUS. A period of breezy NW winds may materialize in the morning behind the trough.
/GG/ Prior discussion below: As the upper trough passing across the region, it has combined with heating and ample moisture to generate some showers and isolated thunderstorms across the region. Another quiet night is expected as the upper trough continues to track east. For tomorrow, the upper ridge will begin building back east over our area. Heat indices will remain tolerable for the most part with the highest heat indices being in the west around 95-100 degrees.
652 PM CDT Fri Aug 6 2021 Latest water vapor imagery is showing an upper trough moving across Missouri and Illinois while latest surface analysis is showing little reflection of this trough at the surface with a stationary front well north of the area across the Upper Midwest and the northern Plains. There are some scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over central Illinois and southeast Missouri associated with this trough, and there still may be isolated showers and thunderstorm develop ahead of this trough over the eastern half of the area late this afternoon before it moves east of the region tonight. Then mainly dry weather is expect tonight into Saturday evening as the latest run on the HREF is showing the upper ridge currently over the Plains building into the Midwest.
8 inch values extending from the upper low northeast through the Lake Cumberland region. As the upper low continues to rotate ENE overnight, it could spark off some scattered showers in south-central KY (mainly east of I-65 toward the border with JKL).
This will act to increase heights slightly as well as move the thermal ridge eastward. Temperatures this afternoon will be a couple degrees warmer than yesterday with temperatures near to slightly below normal as the main thermal ridge is still positioned off to the west. Lows will be a degree or two warmer tonight as the ridge continues to move eastward. Tomorrow will be sunny with highs increasing a couple degrees as the ridge builds across the area. Low temperatures Saturday night will be a couple degrees warmer than tonight in response to the increasing daytime highs and slightly stronger winds.
Plenty of mid and high clouds streaming NE acrs the region this evening, ahead of a mid/upper level trough axis over the Upper Glakes and Midwestern States. Farther southeast into the lower Susquehanna Valley, stronger capping will also contribute to lower rain chances there. Mostly cloudy skies and rain chances will keep temperatures lower than days prior, though not cooler than average.
414 PM PDT Fri Aug 6 2021 Cold front will sweep across the Inland Northwest Saturday night.
With the approaching upper trough, currently over the Northern Rockies, scattered thunderstorm development is expected to begin later this afternoon across the northern High Plains. Scattered showers with isolated thunderstorms will push east across the CWA overnight as the upper trough advances, with possible re-invigoration of storms across the southeast during the day tomorrow.
Weak cyclonic rotation continues over IA/WI/IL with a broad upper trough sinking into the Mississippi Valley. As a result, the hot and muggy conditions will return to central Indiana this weekend with daytime temperatures climbing into the upper 80s tomorrow with dew points in the low 70s. Despite the moisture influx, forcing will be limited and pertaining to just the upper trough. Tonight, the upper trough will push farther into northern Indiana, so shower and thunderstorm chances will become more widespread across the northern third of central Indiana. Tomorrow, shower and thunderstorm chances will become a bit more widespread, but still mainly concentrated over the north and eastern portions of central Indiana as the upper trough traverses the area.
The forecast has this well in hand with forecast lows tonight mostly near 70 to the lower 70s areawide.
The mid level ridge will elongate across the Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico, as a weak trough digs from the OH Valley to the Mid-Atlantic coast. Near normal highs in the low 90s, with low temps in the mid to upper 70s.
604 PM CDT Fri Aug 6 2021 (This evening through Saturday) Dry and warm tonight with lows in the low to mid 70s.
precip coverage will wane after sunset and then increase tomorrow as the upper trough to our west pushes eastward and better dynamics are seen across the area. Low pressure over eastern GA/SC will drift slowly east to northeast through the period. Any showers and a few thunderstorms associated with this low should be mainly confined to areas east of KMCN to KAHN this afternoon and evening.
/Issued 201 PM CDT Fri Aug 6 2021/ Temperatures will return to normal for this time of year this weekend with high temperatures forecast to top out in the low to mid 90s across much of eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas.
Plenty of mid and high clouds streaming NE acrs the region late this evening, ahead of a mid/upper level trough axis over the Upper Glakes and Midwestern States. Farther southeast into the lower Susquehanna Valley, stronger capping will also contribute to lower rain chances there. Mostly cloudy skies and rain chances will keep temperatures lower than days prior, though not cooler than average.
Weak high pressure will return on Saturday and support warm and dry conditions for the day.
928 PM CDT Fri Aug 6 2021 Wx map shows weak high pressure ridging across the Gulf, with light south to southwest winds across the region. With the onshore flow back, dewpoints have risen once again into the lower 70s, still could be worse for this time of year. Saturday morning lows in the lower 70s expected, likely the last of the lower 70s for a while.
/Updated at 0749 PM CDT Fri Aug 06 2021/ A weak upper trough moves over the region into Saturday with a weak surface reflection amid weak surface ridging. The main focus will be west of I65 where convergence is better around the base of an upper level trough. due to a layer of warmer temperatures in the mid levels. helping to keep temperatures in the upper 80's with a few places reaching the lower 90's. The upper level trough will continue to move to the east.
An upper-level trough moving through will help push the boundary to our west eastward across our area overnight. We'll still have a baroclinic zone over the area on Saturday as the back side of the upper level trough moves through, meaning we'll continue to see a few showers and thunderstorms through the day on Saturday, but especially during the afternoon and evening hours. High pressure will be building in from the west, though, which will bring an end to the showers on Saturday evening.
/GG/ As the upper trough passing across the region, it has combined with heating and ample moisture to generate some showers and isolated thunderstorms across the region. Another quiet night is expected as the upper trough continues to track east. For tomorrow, the upper ridge will begin building back east over our area. Heat indices will remain tolerable for the most part with the highest heat indices being in the west around 95-100 degrees.
As a discongruous open wave trof drifts across the Tennessee and Ohio River Valleys, associated slight chance pops will continue to nominally impact mainly our northwest and southeast tier counties.
1021 PM EDT Fri Aug 6 2021 Warmer and more humid conditions will gradually build into the region through this upcoming weekend.
This should inhibit any development of fog but also keep a warmer night on tap. The encroachment of the trough will effectively remove that aforementioned capping inversion, allowing for scattered precipitating convection by late morning or early afternoon Saturday.