Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
312 AM EDT Tue Aug 4 2020 Sfc cold front is currently draped across Illinois and Indiana, and looking fairly diffuse. Closed upper low near James Bay will retrograde SW toward the Great Lakes today in a Fujiwhara pattern as Isaias runs up the East Coast, and the main upper trof axis will push the front eastward across Kentucky. Between cooler and drier air spilling in from the NW, and plenty of cloud cover this afternoon, temps will be well below climo with most locations struggling to crack 80. Skies will clear off after sunset and high pressure will continue to build tonight.
As a broad, unusually deep early August mid-upper trough covering the eastern half of the CONUS starts to fill, its base will amplify slightly upstream over the GOMEX. This is due to a weak short wave trough dropping SE as the Atlantic ridge builds west toward Florida to the south of Departing T. Surface-low level flow becomes S-SSW on the western flank of the Atlantic ridge, with both sea breezes and the Lake O breeze getting active early.
252 AM CDT Tue Aug 4 2020 A cold front continues to push through the Mid-south this morning. Thereafter, temperatures will begin creeping back up as an upper ridge over the Southern Plains begins building eastward into the weekend. There remains some differences amongst the models on how far east the upper ridge will build.
High pressure will return sunshine and warm temperatures on Wednesday. Building high pressure will return dry conditions tonight and Wednesday. Broad upper troughing will support slightly cooler, more comfortable conditions for Wednesday.
1232 AM CDT Tue Aug 4 2020 Cold front has cleared all but our extreme southern airspace attm with a light northerly component to the wind noted at some MTR sites in the wake of the boundary near and north of the I-20 Corridor. However, we still expect all locations to benefit, at least temporarily, from somewhat less humid and slightly cooler conditions for your Tuesday as the front manages to get just a bit farther south before it completely stalls.
1015 PM CDT Mon Aug 3 2020 High pressure is expected to move into the region, leading to a quiet short term. The next chance for rain will be Wednesday, as an upper level trough is likely to move through the southwestern portion of the CWA.
359 AM CDT Tue Aug 4 2020 Today and tonight: A relatively drier airmass remains in place across the region today, yet a lingering upper trough remains overhead.
100 AM EDT Tue Aug 4 2020 Tropical cyclone Isaias will continue north northeast across eastern portions of North Carolina through Tuesday morning. Tropical cyclone Isaias made landfall as a hurricane just before midnight near Ocean Isle Beach with maximum sustained winds of 85 mph.
A cold front will shift to the coast by Wednesday. Deep southwesterly flow will continue as an upper-level trough sits over the central and eastern portion of the CONUS this week.
A dry and weak cold front will result in a cooling trend Tuesday. The ridge over Utah continues to flatten this evening in response to the trough moving by to the north. A weak cold front associated with this trough has already pushed through much of northern Utah. The cold front is expected to stall over central Utah before weakening tonight. Between the cold front and lowering heights, temperatures are expected to trend cooler tomorrow.
Light showers should end by late today with fair skies prevailing for the next several days as an expansive high pressure ridge settles over the region.
346 AM EDT Tue Aug 4 2020 Tropical cyclone Isaias will continue north northeast across eastern portions of North Carolina through early this morning. Tropical cyclone Isaias made landfall as a hurricane just before midnight near Ocean Isle Beach with maximum sustained winds of 85 mph. A slow moving cold front is expected to stall over central NC Wednesday afternoon and evening. Lows generally in the lower 70s, with some upper 60s in the north-central Piedmont.
Satellite imagery indicates the trough axis of the upper low extending down from Lake Superior is moving through the region this morning. This morning we'll start mostly cloud free but as the upper low shifts eastward and we begin to mix, think we'll see some scattered clouds develop. The clouds and the continued cooler northerly flow will keep temps below normal again today. Lows probably end up a few degrees cooler tonight into Wednesday due to lighter winds and clear skies.
Taking a look at the mid/upr lvls, persistent long-wave trough continues to sit over the eastern CONUS but much drier air (per latest WV satl) has moved across the Southeast behind fast-moving "Isaias" about to cross southeast VA from NC.
1121 PM CDT Mon Aug 3 2020 A ridge of high pressure will remain situated across much of eastern Kansas tonight bringing light winds and continued cooler than normal temperatures. So we expect to see the coolest readings across southeast KS where lows will fall into the low to mid 50s while much of central KS sees lows in the mid to upper 50s (normal lows for early Aug are around 70). There appears to be a stronger signal early on Wed when the highest pops were maintained. The mid/upper ridge over the southwest is progged to build towards the central CONUS through much of the period. This should result in a return toward a more seasonable airmass across the Great Plains with highs returning to the low to mid 90s for most areas.
Evening water vapor imagery clearly indicates the anomalously deep upper level trough from the upper midwest into the deep south. A very dry mid and upper level airmass continues to spread into the area under this trough. Little change in temps with highs in the low to mid 90s with lows in the low 70s inland to mid and upper 70s near the coast.
As for temperatures, the upper ridge remains the dominate feature; thus, afternoon highs, above those more usual, for early August, and mainly in the 100 to 104 range, look likely, for Tuesday.
A cold front will accompany the convection and turn winds to the west and northwest, bringing in cooler air for Tuesday. Flow turns northwest for Tuesday and energy will brush the southeast zones in the afternoon afternoon, so the east and the higher terrain will have a chance of convection Tuesday, otherwise it should be drier and cooler. Will keep the possibility of mountain convection as some moisture does slide underneath the building ridge.
The cyclonic northwesterly flow will begin to lose its grip Tuesday night and Wednesday with an upper level ridge then strengthening across the central and southern Plains late this week.
The activity appeared associated with a S/W on the east side of a mid- level long wave trough, expected to slide east over the Atlantic. Temperature across SE GA are expected to peak in the mid 90s with dewpoints in the lower to mid 70s, yielding CAPE values between 2500-3000 J/kg. Tonight: The mid level trough axis will approach from the west. The area will remain in a weak troughing pattern which will lead to at or above normal rain chances each day given the deep moisture continuing in place.
Showers and a few thunderstorms will continue to develop near the North Dakota border today as the front moves east and high pressure drops into the state. Upper ridge then rebounds to the west before moving east with trof digging into the Pacific Northwest.
/Issued 749 PM EDT Mon Aug 3 2020/ The stationary front is expected to dissipate tonight as another weak cold front approaches and moves into the area Tuesday. The upper level trough looks to be less dynamic on Tuesday so the highly diurnal convection should be less strong than today with less overall coverage and is expected to dissipate Tuesday evening. BDL As Isaias works its way up the coast the synoptic scale holds a deep trough through the southeast with an upper level low across the northern great lakes.
Aloft, a broadening trof encompasses much of the eastern CONUS in which Isaias is embedded advancing north through the mid-Atlantic states. High pressure is centered over the southwest CONUS with a ridge extending north northeast.
1031 PM CDT Mon Aug 3 2020 High pressure will keep us dry and cool through tomorrow. High temperatures this afternoon will range from the low to mid 70s in the Minnesota part of the CWA. Fair weather cumulus will be somewhat more widespread in Wisconsin today which will keep high temperatures a few degrees cooler. Highs will be a couple of degrees warmer tomorrow and fair weather cumulus will return. Lows tomorrow night will also be a couple of degrees warmer than the lows tonight. This meager support for thunderstorms, together with the light winds/shear give confidence in the low threat for severe weather as indicated by the "general thunder" outlook by SPC.
The high-resolution guidance has continued to indicate that there is at least a potential for some convection to form and move eastward for the first half of the day. One factor in favor of these warmer temps is breezier south winds allowing for more mixing throughout the day despite the cloud cover. There is a couple weak disturbances that move southeast across the High Plains tonight and are expected to move across the area, but much of the guidance indicates that the best chances for thunderstorms tonight looks to be northeast and especially southwest of the forecast area as an MCS is expected to dive across western KS. The pattern will transition out of northwesterly flow as weak upper level ridging builds in for the weekend. highs by the weekend look to be in the low 90s.
SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday): 500 mb high pressure centered over the Desert Southwest will continue to shift towards the BRO CWFA during the period, eventually becoming centered over west Texas. Despite the increasing presence of the mid-level ridge, temperatures will remain at near normal levels due to Hurricane Hanna wetted soils and standing floodwater that remains over portions of the local area.
A warm and muggy Tuesday is ahead of us as an upper level trough extending across the US from Canada continues to make its way across the Northeast while a high pressure over the Gulf of Mexico expands across the Sunshine State. On Wednesday, the subtropical ridge will begin to build across central Florida bringing light southeasterly flow pulling warm, moist and unstable air allowing for scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms across the peninsula.
Highs will be similar to today, though a bit warmer over eastern areas. Weak energy passing through the building ridge could bring a few afternoon and evening thunderstorms from northeast WY to southwest SD, with the bulk of activity south of the region. The ridge will slowly slide east late this week and eventually weaken with time, with a gradual warming trend to near or slightly above average temps for the end of the week.
A developing lee trough along the Texas and New Mexico State line will shift winds south at 5 to 15 mph. Lows tonight will be in the lower to mid 70s.
Today will remain in northwest flow aloft with warmer temperatures but VFR dominating. Any TS that survive coming off the higher terrain of northeastern New Mexico is likely to stay west of the terminals. Here in West Texas, we are under the influence of subsidence both from the upper level high to our west as well as a boost behind the MCS off to our SE. Tomorrow looks to be warmer though most everyone should remain dry during the day. this around upper high centered across nrn Mexico west of El Paso. Could see some storms move off the higher terrain in NM and affect the SW Panhandle late.
1042 AM EDT Tue Aug 4 2020 Crossing low pressure will support periods of showers with some thunderstorms today. Building high pressure will then return sunshine and seasonably cooler temperature Wednesday through late week. Provided breaks in cloud cover within the warm sector, coverage should increase by afternoon as a sfc cold front begins a slow trek across the forecast area.
An upper level ridge sits over the Rocky Mountains, bringing northwesterly flow into the central Great Plains.
Center is expected to stay well east of us, but the western shield of rain will move across the piedmont this morning, with some bands making it was far west as the Blue Ridge. Going with blend of the high-res models as well as the GFS/NAM as they all have best coverage in the piedmont and points east. High pressure will reside over the Ohio River Valley on Wednesday, while a frontal boundary will remain stalled along the East Coast. Meanwhile, an upper level trough will linger east of the Mississippi River.
Current water vapor imagery and RAP upper air analysis indicates the persistent broad trough that stretches from the Great Lakes southward into the Gulf of Mexico. Expect any ongoing convection will come to an end near sunset as the trough races off to the east and the front exits.
As an area of low pressure develops across California and the Great Basin this week we can expect to see decreasing temperatures.
This is tied to a developing speed max, albeit weak, as Isaias begins to phase with the upper trough over the eastern US. Most of the precip today should be focused over the valley and points east as a cold front is already positioned over the plateau region, and trended PoPs in this direction. MA Chattanooga Airport, TN 87 68 89 68 89 / 40 10 30 10 20 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 85 67 87 67 88 / 40 10 30 20 40 Oak Ridge, TN 84 67 87 66 88 / 30 10 30 10 30 Tri Cities Airport, TN 82 63 85 64 85 / 30 10 50 20 60.
A weak, dry cold front will stall across central Utah today.
455 AM MST Tue Aug 4 2020 Updated Aviation High pressure will persist across the Desert Southwest this week resulting in a continuation of the well above normal temperatures and dry conditions. Daily high temperatures across the lower deserts will mostly range from 107 to 112 degrees for the bulk of the week. The strong upper level ridge that has brought just over a week of well above normal temperatures continues to weaken while also getting pushed southeastward due to an approaching dry trough off the California coast.
627 AM CDT Tue Aug 4 2020 High pressure will exit to the east today. CAPE is not overly impressive except in a narrow corridor in the trough. Temperatures will remain a bit below average in the upper trough with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s today. In the upper levels, the upper ridge over the rockies weakens somewhat as it shifts towards the midwest, creating a bit more zonal flow by the weekend.
844 AM CDT Tue Aug 4 2020 A cold front was located from just southeast of Nashville through the northwest tip of AL into central MS. Showers and thunderstorms should end within a few hours of sunset this evening, as a drier and more stable airmass is advected into the region in the wake of the cold front. Although dewpoints in the l-m 60s would normally result in cooler low temperatures than we have indicated in the grids, it does appear that a 2-3 mb pressure gradient will support at least light NNE flow throughout the night, and with indications of lingering mid-level cloud cover we have kept temps generally in the mid 60s.
552 AM MDT Tue Aug 4 2020 12Z TAF CYCLE Drier air moves in from the west today as high pressure aloft shifts to southwest NM. The coverage of showers and thunderstorms will be much less today as dry air filters into the region with strong high pressure. High pressure will drift east Wednesday and allow a couple more storms to fire up over the southwest mountains and over the northeast plains.
Sfc cold front is currently draped across Illinois and Indiana, and looking fairly diffuse. Closed upper low near James Bay will retrograde SW toward the Great Lakes today in a Fujiwhara pattern as Isaias runs up the East Coast, and the main upper trof axis will push the front eastward across Kentucky. Between cooler and drier air spilling in from the NW, and plenty of cloud cover this afternoon, temps will be well below climo with most locations struggling to crack 80. Skies will clear off after sunset and high pressure will continue to build tonight.
/issued 350 AM CDT Tue Aug 4 2020/ SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday): 500 mb high pressure centered over the Desert Southwest will continue to shift towards the BRO CWFA during the period, eventually becoming centered over west Texas. Despite the increasing presence of the mid-level ridge, temperatures will remain at near normal levels due to Hurricane Hanna wetted soils and standing floodwater that remains over portions of the local area.
Today: The area will remain in a west-southwest mid-lvl flow between a trough of low pressure extending across the Midwest/Deep South and a ridge of high pressure centered well offshore across the western Atlantic. Afternoon high temps should range in the low/mid 90s away from the coast, warmest across Southeast Georgia. Tonight: The mid-lvl trough axis of low pressure will approach from the west. The area will remain in a weak troughing pattern which will lead to at or above normal rain chances each day given the deep moisture continuing in place. Today and Tonight: A weak pressure gradient will prevail between high pressure across the western Atlantic and a trough of low pressure well inland.
High pressure will be breaking down this week as a low pressure area slowly encroaches upon Nevada. High pressure centered south of the 4-corners area will gradually slide east across New Mexico and Texas, nudged along by a developing trough over the eastern Pacific. This trough will push its way into California and on its approach, there will be enough moisture and instability to trigger some dry variety thunderstorms. As the trough moves over California, instability increases along with some higher precipitable water values.
Current WV satellite depicts a longwave upper trough over James Bay extending southwestward over the Mississippi Valley, an upper ridge over the southern Four Corners, resulting in northwesterly flow aloft over the Panhandles. Today, expect northwesterly flow aloft to continue along with modest south-southeasterly moist advection in the low levels. Wednesday, upper ridge to our southwest begins to build eastward.
650 AM EDT Tue Aug 4 2020 Tropical cyclone Isaias will continue north northeast across eastern portions of North Carolina through early this morning. A slow moving cold front is expected to stall over central NC Wednesday afternoon and evening. Lows generally in the lower 70s, with some upper 60s in the north-central Piedmont.
The flow aloft will be northwest on either side of a ridge over the southern Rockies/southern Plains and a trough east of the Mississippi River. At the surface, high pressure will ride the flow into the region today/tonight, with no rain in the forecast.
12Z TAF CYCLE Drier air moves in from the west today as high pressure aloft shifts to southwest NM. The coverage of showers and thunderstorms will be much less today as dry air filters into the region with strong high pressure. High pressure will drift east Wednesday and allow a couple more storms to fire up over the southwest mountains and over the northeast plains.
655 AM EDT Tue Aug 4 2020 Tropical cyclone Isaias will continue north northeast into southeastern VA through early this morning. A slow moving cold front is expected to stall over central NC Wednesday afternoon and evening. Lows generally in the lower 70s, with some upper 60s in the north-central Piedmont.
The low clouds may thick during the early daylight hours, then dissipating during the mid morning hours. The activity appeared associated with a S/W on the east side of a mid- level long wave trough, expected to slide east over the Atlantic. Temperature across SE GA are expected to peak in the mid 90s with dewpoints in the lower to mid 70s, yielding CAPE values between 2500-3000 J/kg. Tonight: The mid level trough axis will approach from the west. The area will remain in a weak troughing pattern which will lead to at or above normal rain chances each day given the deep moisture continuing in place.
This will brush the Brainerd Lakes area with some light rain, but accumulations should be on the low side (<0.
/DL/ Today and tonight: A relatively drier airmass remains in place across the region today, yet a lingering upper trough remains overhead.
With a very dry airmass in place and high pressure building back over the region, today will see seasonable temperatures with plenty of sunshine across western Montana and north central Idaho. High pressure will continue to strengthen into Wednesday, allowing temperatures to reach back up into the low to mid 90s (slightly above normal) for many valley locations.
545 AM EDT Tue Aug 4 2020 Tropical cyclone Isaias will continue north northeast across eastern portions of North Carolina through early this morning. A slow moving cold front is expected to stall over central NC Wednesday afternoon and evening. Lows generally in the lower 70s, with some upper 60s in the north-central Piedmont.
723 AM EDT Tue Aug 4 2020 Crossing low pressure will support periods of showers with some thunderstorms today. Building high pressure will return sunshine and seasonably cooler temperature Wednesday through late week. Provided breaks in cloud cover, coverage should increase by afternoon as a sfc cold front begins a slow trek across the forecast area. Building high pressure will return dry conditions tonight and Wednesday. Broad upper troughing will support slightly cooler, more comfortable conditions for Wednesday.
605 AM CDT Tue Aug 4 2020 High pressure continues to hang around the area resulting in another gorgeous day.
402 AM CDT Tue Aug 4 2020 High pressure will exit to the east today. CAPE is not overly impressive except in a narrow corridor in the trough. Temperatures will remain a bit below average in the upper trough with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s today. In the upper levels, the upper ridge over the rockies weakens somewhat as it shifts towards the midwest, creating a bit more zonal flow by the weekend.
/issued 252 AM CDT Tue Aug 4 2020/ A cold front continues to push through the Mid-south this morning. Thereafter, temperatures will begin creeping back up as an upper ridge over the Southern Plains begins building eastward into the weekend. There remains some differences amongst the models on how far east the upper ridge will build.
850 AM EDT Tue Aug 4 2020 Weak high pressure will hold over the region today with westerly boundary layer flow across west central and southwest Florida.
808 AM EDT Tue Aug 4 2020 Tropical cyclone Isaias will continue north northeast into southeastern VA through early this morning. A slow moving cold front is expected to stall over central NC Wednesday afternoon and evening. Lows generally in the lower 70s, with some upper 60s in the north-central Piedmont.
High pressure builds in keeping winds out of the north with speeds less than 10kts. Winds diminish tonight with the high settling in over the region. Satellite imagery indicates the trough axis of the upper low extending down from Lake Superior is moving through the region this morning. This morning we'll start mostly cloud free but as the upper low shifts eastward and we begin to mix, think we'll see some scattered clouds develop. The clouds and the continued cooler northerly flow will keep temps below normal again today. Lows probably end up a few degrees cooler tonight into Wednesday due to lighter winds and clear skies.
Initial tstm development will focus over the nrn Foothills and Cheyenne Ridge by early to mid aftn. Over the higher terrain, tstm activity will have less coverage today as some drier air moves in from the west. For now will keep highs in the lower 90s. Models show the upper ridge axis to be over western Colorado on Wednesday.
A ridge of high pressure continues to remain over the Arizona-New Mexico to start the forecast period. Excessive heat warnings continue through this evening for the lowest elevations of Yavapai County, Grand Canyon, Marble Canyon, and Glen Canyon. Slightly cooler conditions develop on Wednesday as the ridge of high pressure is pushed eastward and a trough moves in over the Pacific Coast.