Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
129 AM EDT FRI AUG 21 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL DEPARTS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TODAY. COOLER AND DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE AREA.
ISOLD HIGH BASED TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER THE HIGH TRRN TODAY. IT WILL BE HOT TODAY WITH M90S OVER THE LOWER ARK RVR VALLEY AND 80S/L90S ACROSS THE PALMER DVD AND RATON MESA REGIONS.
/ISSUED 407 AM CDT FRI AUG 21 2015/ ROBUST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION WAS WELL UNDERWAY THIS MORNING WITH UPPER 60 DEWPOINTS AND STRATUS NOTED IN THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS.
Another cold front is expected to move through the area bringing a very good chance for showers and thunderstorms. As the day progresses and instability builds, the advancing cold front will then become the primary focus for storms. The fast movement should also limit the flash flooding potential despite the high moisture content for the storms to work with.
Below normal temperatures will occur again today as highs warm into the upper 70s to the lower 80s. A warm front will start to lift north into the region late this afternoon into this evening then through the area overnight tonight. A warmer air mass will spread into the area from the west on Saturday resulting in highs ranging from the lower 80s across central Missouri to the upper 80s across extreme southeastern Kansas.
314 AM EDT FRI AUG 21 2015 A COLD FRONT SLOWLY CROSSES THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE OVER OR JUST EAST OF THE AREA THIS WEEKEND WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTH AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL OFFSHORE.
WINDS WILL BEGIN DIMINISHING AFTER 00Z AS A TROUGH EXITS THE AREA.
356 AM EDT FRI AUG 21 2015 THE COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE NEAR OR OFF SHORE LATER TODAY.
THIS WILL BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH ERN CO LATE SAT AFTERNOON OR EVE. NAM GUIDANCE IS CONSIDERABLY COOLER THAN THE GFS ON SATURDAY. HAVE LEANED TOWARDS THE MUCH WARMER GFS. SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM REACHING THE LOWER 90S IF NOT MID 90S OVER THE LOWER ARKANSAS.
DIFFUSE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION THIS MORNING FROM THE UPSTATE. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES OVER THE EAST GULF OF MEXICO. WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGHS LIFTING NORTHEAST FROM THE GULF COAST STATES AROUND RIDGE INTO GEORGIA AND CAROLINA. TEMPERATURES COOLER IN THE NORTH BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.
A STRONG U/L RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER FLORIDA THROUGH SATURDAY WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION.
402 AM EDT FRI AUG 21 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO PUSH OFF THE COAST TODAY. AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. THE HIGH WILL BECOME CENTERED FROM NEW ENGLAND TO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS OVER THE WEEKEND. AS LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OFF THE COAST. MOSTLY CLEAR/COOLER FRI NIGHT. A BIT WARMER CLOSER TO THE COAST AND ACRS THE ERN SHORE WHERE SOME CLOUDS AND ONSHORE FLOW MAY PERSIST.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING TO THE NORTH OF NEVADA WILL BRING GUSTY WEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON.
328 AM MST FRI AUG 21 2015 THUNDERSTORMS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ARIZONA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHEAST MT. A SURFACE TROF EXTENDS SOUTHWARD FROM THE LOW THROUGH NORTHEAST WY. WITH WESTERLY WINDS TO THE WEST OF THE TROF. SOUTHERLY TO THE EAST OF THE TROF. THE WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY AS THERMAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA LIFTS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. BRINGING MUCH COOLER AIR FOR THE WEEKEND. WITH SURFACE TROF PROGGED TO SLOWLY MOVE INTO WESTERN SD DURING THE DAY. DEEP MIXING BEHIND THE TROF WILL ALLOW WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS TO BECOME BREEZY OVER NORTHEAST WY AND VERY DRY AIR ALOFT TO MIX DOWN TO THE GROUND IN THE AFTERNOON. FURTHER EAST AHEAD OF THE TROF.
407 AM CDT FRI AUG 21 2015 ROBUST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION WAS WELL UNDERWAY THIS MORNING WITH UPPER 60 DEWPOINTS AND STRATUS NOTED IN THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS.
340 AM CDT FRI AUG 21 2015 COLD FRONT STALLED OVER SOUTHERN ARK THIS MORNING WILL BEGIN TO MOVE BACK TO THE NORTH LATER TODAY.
337 AM EDT FRI AUG 21 2015 COLD FRONT HAS MOVED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TODAY AND FOR THE WEEKEND.
SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE NORTHWARD MOVING WARM FRONT TO MAINTAIN FOG THROUGH MID-MORNING.
150 AM EDT FRI AUG 21 2015 A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL ENCROACH UPON THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S AND MORNING LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.
526 AM EDT FRI AUG 21 2015 HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BRING DRY WEATHER AND LOW HUMIDITY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BRING MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY WEATHER TODAY.
THE AIRMASS WILL WARM AGAIN FOR TODAY BEFORE ANOTHER DRY COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.
551 AM EDT FRI AUG 21 2015 MOSTLY SUNNY DAYS AND MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHTS WILL BE IN STORE FOR THE REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE TAKES CONTROL. UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL QUICKLY DEPART THE REGION. TAKING THE COOLER CONDITIONS WITH IT.
There is a chance of thunderstorms this afternoon for the western half of the CWA especially the higher terrain and surrounding plains. An upper trough moving over the Northern Plains on Saturday will help to keep the upper ridge over the area weak.
459 AM EDT FRI AUG 21 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO PUSH OFF THE COAST TODAY. AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. THE HIGH WILL BECOME CENTERED FROM NEW ENGLAND TO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS OVER THE WEEKEND. AS LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OFF THE COAST. MOSTLY CLEAR/COOLER FRI NIGHT. A BIT WARMER CLOSER TO THE COAST AND ACRS THE ERN SHORE WHERE SOME CLOUDS AND ONSHORE FLOW MAY PERSIST.
A lee trough will continue today across eastern Colorado leading to southerly winds throughout the day.
231 AM EDT FRI AUG 21 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WITH DRIER AND COOLER AIR INTO THE WEEKEND.
124 AM EDT FRI AUG 21 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BUILD EAST INTO PENNSYLVANIA TODAY AND REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT CAPE WON'T BE QUITE AS ABUNDANT AS YESTERDAY ALTHOUGH I'M SEEING SIMILAR OR SLIGHTLY COOLER MID LEVEL TEMPS AND ONLY MARGINALLY LESS PW LEVELS LATER TODAY ON SO WE SHOULDN/T SEE A SIGNIFICANT DROP.
639 AM EDT FRI AUG 21 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WITH DRIER AIR INTO THE WEEKEND.
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING. DRY AND LESS HUMID AIR ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OVER THE WEEKEND. THE PROBLEM(S) OF THE DAY ARE THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT THIS MORNING AND THE RESULTANT LOWERING OF HUMIDITIES FROM THE NORTH TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
202 AM EDT FRI AUG 21 2015 COOLER AIR WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TODAY BEHIND A COLD FRONT.
THOSE PRECIP CHANCES SEEM TO BE DWINDLING QUICKLY BY SATURDAY MORNING AS THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE SHIFTED WELL NORTH OF THE CWA. LIKELY CAPPING THE ATMOSPHERE TO AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ALONG OR AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING QUICKLY EAST TOWARD MN.
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING SE THROUGH BRITISH COLUMBIA THIS MORNING WILL MOVE ACROSS NRN ID AND INTO MT TODAY AND TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MUCH OF SE OREGON THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPS SATURDAY WILL BE 2 TO 8 DEGREES COOLER. OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT WILL AVERAGE AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT.
352 AM EDT FRI AUG 21 2015 COOLER AND DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED FOR THROUGH SATURDAY.
MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE AREA CONTINUES TO BE DOMINATED BY RIDGE OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO. OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING WILL SEE MID LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.
ONLY A FEW SHOWERS REMAIN IN THE FAR EAST THIS AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH THROUGH OUR AREA. COOLER. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO TRAVERSE SOUTHERN CANADA TO END THE WEEKEND.
HIGHS 5-7 DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY /UPPER 70S/ ARE A REASONABLE EXPECTATION GIVEN PLENTY OF SUN AND DEPARTURE OF THE THERMAL TROUGH. SLIGHTLY ENHANCED GRADIENT ACROSS THE NW MAY LEAD TO SLIGHTLY WARMER LOWS IN THE SAGINAW VALLEY AREA.
205 AM EDT FRI AUG 21 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WITH DRIER AND COOLER AIR INTO THE WEEKEND.
SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGES AS WELL AS SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE CONVECTION DEVELOPING OFFSHORE THE LOWER TEXAS COAST LATE TONIGHT. A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH OVERHEAD AT H7 AND/OR MID LEVEL LOW AT H5 WILL REMAIN IN PLAY TONIGHT.
A WEAK PUSH OF MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER MAINLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 15 FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
THESE CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH THIS FRI NIGHT. ADJUSTED FRIDAY MORNING CONVECTION DUE TO MODEL UNCERTAINTIES AND GRADUALLY BROUGHT CONVECTION CHANCES FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY GRADUALLY LIFTS NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT.
TSRA AND LIGHTNING IN NWRN IA ON THE NOSE OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET PER 88D VWPS AND RAP ANALYSIS. SHORT TERM GUIDANCE SUPPORTS EVOLVING THE FRONTOGENESIS AND THE LOW-LEVEL JET NOSE CONVERGENCE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE FIRST PORTION OF TODAY INTO NRN WI BY AFTERNOON. HAVE KEPT THE HIGHER PROBABILITY DRY FORECAST. ALREADY SEEING RESPONSE OF APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH COMING THROUGH CENTRAL PLAINS.
331 AM EDT FRI AUG 21 2015 MOSTLY SUNNY DAYS AND MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHTS WILL BE IN STORE FOR THE REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE TAKES CONTROL. UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL QUICKLY DEPART THE REGION. TAKING THE COOLER CONDITIONS WITH IT.
337 AM MDT FRI AUG 21 2015 A PACIFIC TROUGH WORKS THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT THEN DEEPENS ON THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON SATURDAY. DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS FROM THE I-70 CORRIDOR NORTHWARD RAISE FIRE CONCERNS. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PUSHES JUST SOUTH OF THE WYOMING BORDER LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
230 AM CDT FRI AUG 21 2015 230 AM CDT HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND WILL SHIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH TONIGHT. THE HIGH THEN REMAINS OVER THE EAST COAST THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. EXPECTING SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS TO FORM BY MID MORNING WHILE SOUTHWEST WINDS USHER IN WARMER AIR. WARMER AIR ALOFT WILL ALSO HELP US BE WARMER THAN YESTERDAY DESPITE ANOTHER CHILLY START TO THE DAY. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS EAST SATURDAY WHILE THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE CLEAR SKIES AND AMPLE MIXING WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO GET INTO THE LOW 80S.
A very strong cold front is still on track to pass across the Northern Rockies this afternoon, producing very strong and gusty winds which will undoubtedly wreak havoc on many area wildfires. Late this evening a second, 'back door' cold front will descend out of Canada and push across western Montana during the night. Saturday still looks like a really nice day across the region with the cooler atmosphere steadily drying under northerly flow aloft.
130 AM EDT FRI AUG 21 2015 A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL ENCROACH UPON THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S AND MORNING LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.
OFFERING MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND LESS HUMIDITY. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION > MID LEVEL TROF OVER THE GREAT LAKES TO PIVOT NE INTO CANADA WITH WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. READINGS TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S NORTH TO THE LOWER 80S SOUTH. COOL TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE WITH LOWS FROM THE LOWER 50S NE TO THE MID/UPPER 50S SW. HIGHS TO RANGE FROM NEAR 80 NORTH TO THE LOWER 80S SOUTH. MID LEVEL TROF DIGGING ACRS THE NRN PLAINS WITH FLOW BACKING OVER THE OHIO VALLEY.
357 AM EDT FRI AUG 21 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BUILD EAST INTO PENNSYLVANIA TODAY AND REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
THE STAR OF THE SHOW THIS WEEKEND IS THAT OF A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT WILL SURGE SE ACROSS KS SAT & SAT NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT IS SCHEDULED TO ARRIVE NORTHWEST KS SAT AFTERNOON THEN CROSS CENTRAL & SOUTH-CENTRAL KS SAT NIGHT WITH THE FRONT APPROACHING/REACHING THE SOUTHEAST KS/NORTHEAST OK BORDER SUN MORNING. THE COLD FRONT WILL GET A SWIFT KICK BY A STRONG/SHARP MID-UPPER DECK TROF THAT WILL SURGE E/SE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE TROF SHOULD CROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TONIGHT. THE CYCLONE SHOULD THEN OCCLUDE OVER ONTARIO ON SUN AS IT ENCOUNTERS AN AMPLIFYING NEGATIVELY-TILTED UPPER-DECK TROF PUNCHING NW ACROSS QUEBEC.
428 AM EDT FRI AUG 21 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREDOMINATE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
OVERNIGHT LOWS REMAIN ON TRACK FOR THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S. THE PATTERN FAVORS THE SLOWER TIMING AND WE LEANED TOWARD THE HIGHER MOS POPS. USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST AND WARMER GUIDANCE FOR THE LOW TEMPERATURE BECAUSE OF THE RECENT BIAS AND MOIST AIR MASS.
THAT WILL BRING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND WARMER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES BOTH DAY.
SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGES CONTINUE TO INDICATE CONVECTION DEVELOPING OFFSHORE THE LOWER TEXAS COAST EARLY THIS MORNING AND MOVE NORTHWARD. 500MB LOW/ELONGATED TROUGH AXIS ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS AND NORTHEAST MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE ABUNDANT LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE CWA TODAY AND TONIGHT BEFORE WEAKENING SATURDAY.
SECONDARY UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE RED RIVER VALLEY TO ALLOW FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE INTERSTATE 30 CORRIDOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS FRONT LIFTS NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND DUE TO A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH PARKED ACROSS THE REGION WITHIN MAINLY ZONAL FLOW.
334 AM CDT FRI AUG 21 2015 230 AM CDT HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND WILL SHIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH TONIGHT. THE HIGH THEN REMAINS OVER THE EAST COAST THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. EXPECTING SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS TO FORM BY MID MORNING WHILE SOUTHWEST WINDS USHER IN WARMER AIR. WARMER AIR ALOFT WILL ALSO HELP US BE WARMER THAN YESTERDAY DESPITE ANOTHER CHILLY START TO THE DAY. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS EAST SATURDAY WHILE THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE CLEAR SKIES AND AMPLE MIXING WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO GET INTO THE LOW 80S.
642 AM EDT FRI AUG 21 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREDOMINATE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
331 AM CDT FRI AUG 21 2015 BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP TODAY AS 850 MB TEMPS CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S CELSIUS. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. AS THE POTENT UPPER LOW MOVES EAST ACROSS ND SATURDAY NIGHT.
243 AM EDT FRI AUG 21 2015 HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BRING DRY WEATHER AND LOW HUMIDITY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BRING MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY WEATHER TODAY.
524 AM EDT FRI AUG 21 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BUILD EAST INTO PENNSYLVANIA TODAY AND REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
1245 AM CDT FRI AUG 21 2015 FOR 06Z TAFS /ISSUED 921 PM CDT THU AUG 20 2015/ A TROUGH AXIS THAT WAS MOVING THE SFC COLD FRONT SE ACROSS THE REGION HAS MOVED OFF TO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE GREAT LAKES/UPPER APPALACHIANS LEAVING A SLOWLY MOVING/STALLED FRONT IN ITS WAKE. THIS COULD MEAN A SHORT WINDOW OF FOG FORMATION IF THE LOW CLOUDS SCATTER OVER NW AL. HOWEVER, WITH THE HIGH CLOUD COVER EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SHIFT EAST, FOG FORMATION SHOULD BE MITIGATED. ISOLATED POCKETS OF FOG MAY FORM NEAR ANY CLEARING AREAS BTWN 21/08Z-21/12Z BUT DRIER AIR COMING BEHIND A COLD FRONT PASSAGE SHOULD KEEP WIDESPREAD FOG FROM FORMING.
554 AM CDT FRI AUG 21 2015 230 AM CDT HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND WILL SHIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH TONIGHT. THE HIGH THEN REMAINS OVER THE EAST COAST THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. EXPECTING SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS TO FORM BY MID MORNING WHILE SOUTHWEST WINDS USHER IN WARMER AIR. WARMER AIR ALOFT WILL ALSO HELP US BE WARMER THAN YESTERDAY DESPITE ANOTHER CHILLY START TO THE DAY. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS EAST SATURDAY WHILE THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE CLEAR SKIES AND AMPLE MIXING WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO GET INTO THE LOW 80S.
WARMER LOWS AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WITH WINDS REMAINING UP OVERNIGHT WITH INCREASING GRADIENT. A SECOND ANOMALOUSLY DEEP LOW PRESSURE STORM SYSTEM WITHIN A WEEK WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. GEFS M-CLIMATE RETURN INTERVAL ONCE AGAIN SHOWS THE SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WITH THIS SYSTEM IS OUTSIDE THE CLIMATE WINDOW FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING A FEW SHOWERS TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL RETURN THIS WEEKEND FOR WARMER AND SUNNIER WEATHER. AN UPPER TROUGH COULD BRING SOME SHOWERS BY MIDWEEK. A SHORT WAVE UPPER TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. THE LOW LEVELS WILL BEGIN TO DRY IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AND SKIES SHOULD BECOME PARTLY SUNNY OVER THE INTERIOR. A WEAK UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA ON SATURDAY.
305 AM CDT FRI AUG 21 2015 06Z SFC DATA HAS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. QUIET AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES TO THE EAST COAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER BUT STILL AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL. THE NEXT BIG COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE IN THE CWA SATURDAY NIGHT. WHERE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN CLOUDS COUPLED WITH INCREASING SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL HELP BOOST HIGHS TO THE LOWER 80S IN MOST LOCATIONS.
THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH 24 HOURS AGO WAS LOCATED TO OUR SOUTH. HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND EXTENDED DOWN INTO MID TN. AND A CHANCE FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES.
648 AM EDT FRI AUG 21 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS TO THE NORTH THIS WEEKEND.
TROUGHING IN THE MID-LEVELS WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THIS TIME AS NWRLY FLOW ALOFT BECOMES SWRLY ACROSS THE AREA. A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL BECOME NEAR STATIONARY ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUING OVER ECFL.
248 AM EDT FRI AUG 21 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS TO THE NORTH THIS WEEKEND.
141 AM EDT FRI AUG 21 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TONIGHT PROVIDING FAIR WEATHER AND UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA AS IT MOVES SLOWLY EAST FRIDAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND HIGH TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 80. DEEP LOW OVER ONTARIO WILL LIFT NORTH TO HUDSON BAY TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVG E-NE INTO THE OH VALLEY/UPR GRTLKS IN ITS WAKE. AND HELPS MAINTAIN HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC ACROSS THE LOWER/EASTERN GREAT LAKES.
THE MOISTURE WILL BE DRAWN NORTHWARD BY AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AS IT PASSES EASTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN US AND CANADIAN BORDER.
NEXT UPPER LOW/TROUGH TO AFFECT THE AREA IS CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHWESTERN CANADA. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN TODAY AS UPPER TROUGH QUICKLY APPROACHES THE REGION. THERMAL RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVER THE AREA AS SOUTHERLY WINDS ADVECT IN WARM AIR. AND POSSIBLY COOLER DEPENDING ON THE SMOKE. UPPER TROUGH WILL DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT. SWEEPING A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN PASSING THROUGH THE CWA JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT. BUT GENERALLY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE LOOKS DRY WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIP IN ND NORTH OF THE LOW. TEMPERATURES FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT WILL BE WELL BELOW AVERAGE FOR AUGUST. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE BLACK HILLS.
926 AM EST SAT FEB 27 2016 MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS A TROUGH JUST ENTERING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY AND ANOTHER TROUGH LIFTING ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH REMAINS NORTH OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THIS MORNING WITH ZONAL FLOW OVER THE STATE. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST REGION IS KEEPING A NORTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST TOWARD THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
THIS COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS IS THANKS TO A HIGH PRESSURE DOME CENTERED ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.
WITH NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. BUT HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ISSUED A RED FLAG WARNING MAINLY FOR THE SAKE OF CONTINUITY AS IT CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT GIVEN THE TENDENCY FOR OBSERVED CONDITIONS TO BE GENERALLY WARMER. BRINGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL BE NEARLY 15 DEGREES COOLER AS A RESULT.
939 AM EST SAT FEB 27 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH SUNDAY.
THE RIDGE THAT BROUGHT NEARLY CLOUDLESS SKIES THE LAST FEW DAYS WILL FLATTEN THIS MORNING AS ITS RIDGELINE SLIDES EAST. THE GREAT BASIN RIDGE WILL REESTABLISH WITH MOISTURE ERODING OVER CO SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
Snow should stay confined to elevations above 5000 to 6000 feet, with travel impacts from the snow being limited to the highest mountain passes, such as Lost Trail and Bannock. For Montana valleys, rain will be lighter, since the lowest levels of the atmosphere are quite dry; amounts close to a tenth inch are likely. A building ridge of high pressure by Sunday morning will translate into potential for patchy fog given clearing skies and antecedent moisture.
QUIET NIGHT ACROSS THE MID STATE AS UPPER RIDGING BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION.
SO DECIDED TO EXPAND THE HIGH WIND WARNING TO INCLUDE CHEYENNE AND LARAMIE.
A COLD FRONT MOVED THROUGH OUR AREA LAST EVENING, AND THIS WAS FOLLOWED BY A FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL LOW. WE HAD PLENTY OF SHOWERS WITH THE UPPER LOW AND WE EVEN HAD A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES. WE ARE NOW SEEING THE LAST GASPS OF THE SHOWERS FROM THE UPPER LOW, AND THEY SHOULD BE GONE BY DAY BREAK OVER MOST AREA.
AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO WITH QUIET AND DRY CONDITIONS. LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS HAVE HELPED KEEP TEMPERATURES A BIT WARMER WITH MOST LOCATIONS IN THE 30S. WITH THE LEE SLOPES IN THE LOWER 40S. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH TONIGHT WITH GUSTY NORTH WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
Temps will be slightly cooler in areas where some snow cover remains. Mid level ridge shifts eastward over the region for a warming trend throughout the weekend. Increasing winds driven by deepening low pressure system moving out of the Plains and into the Midwest.
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS HAS RIDGE CROSSING THE ROCKIES WITH TROF MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA WITH LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS AND TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S AND 40S. UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS OVER THE REGION. A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA. ALTHOUGH SOME LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE BLACK HILLS LATE TONIGHT INTO DAYBREAK ON SUNDAY.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRES OVER OREGON THIS MORNING WILL MOVE E TODAY GIVING WAV TO A RIDGE OF HIGH PRES. THE HIGH WILL MOVE THROUGH QUICKLY THOUGH AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INLAND SUN FOR MORE RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW. THE BREAK BETWEEN SYSTEMS WILL BE BRIEF WITH MODELS SHOWING THE NEXT SYSTEM PUSHING A COLD FRONT INLAND SUN MORNING. RIDGING ALOFT WILL FOLLOW SUN NIGHT INTO MON BRINGING AN END TO THE SHOWERS.
Temperatures this afternoon will be mild and we have generally gone on the high side of guidance. Those winds will then actually increase tonight as pressure gradients continue to tighten ahead of a mid-level short wave trough. Lows will range from the middle 40s across the eastern Ozarks to the lower 50s near the Missouri/Kansas border. That upper level wave will bring a dry cold front through the area on Sunday.
SUNDAY SHOULD BE EVEN WARMER AS A SFC-850MB RIDGE SHIFTS ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA OWING TO W-SWLY FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION ACROSS OUR REGION.
1004 AM EST SAT FEB 27 2016 TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE THIS WEEKEND AS AN UPPER TROUGH EXITS. WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES HOLDING IN THE LOW TO MID 30S.