Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Low stratus and patchy fog will continue across most of our terminals ahead of an approaching cold front. Pacific cold front with drier air was moving into the northern Hill Country with the stronger cold front lagging behind just south of Interstate 20. Strong cold front will enter the coastal waters just before 12Z Wednesday.
307 AM CDT Wed Apr 5 2017 Water vapor imagery shows a potent upper low spinning over south central Kansas with the wrap around precip affecting most of northeast and south central KS. Upper low is expected to rapidly lift northeast and will be over northern MO/southern IA by the late afternoon. Frost still looks possible early Thu morning with central KS having the best shot to see temps fall into the low 30s. By Thu afternoon the broad/deep upper low will encompass the Great Lakes into the Ohio Valley with nw flow aloft over the Plains. We will finally get back into more spring- like pattern for Fri, with warmer temps and gusty south winds.
The leading edge or surface cold front is punching into the heart of the ArkLaTex right now with NW 12G23KT as of this writing here in SHV.
The gradient will slowly relax after that time as upper level ridging starts to build in out west and the departing low shifts well to the east into the Ohio Valley. For tonight, light winds and clear sky will allow temperatures to fall to the lower to mid 30s across most areas.
A strong jet streak and upper disturbance can be see racing through 170W this morning, and as this begins to curve north along the PacNW coast and become negatively tilted later Thursday, it will spin up strong low pressure at the surface.
507 AM CDT Wed Apr 5 2017 Temperatures around the region are holding in the lower 70s ahead of the latest front that is expected through southeast Texas well before the noon hour and exiting south central Louisiana coast by the afternoon hours. Lafayette will be a bit warmer today than most locations as the front will take a bit longer to push through.
Upper ridge axis in Central WA and OR this morning will shift to eastern Idaho late today and eastern MT/WY late Thursday. The ridge will bring significant warming today.
353 AM CDT Wed Apr 5 2017 Cold front is progressing east this morning and is moving through the Shreveport and Houston areas at the moment. The first is the polar jet with the cold front the second is the subtropical jet with the warm front. As the cold front moves through the area, it will dry things out and send any possibility of a severe wx risk eastward. The trough that is associated with the cold front is relatively broad. Basically, there will be a period of about 2 hours while the trough is moving through that winds will fall below advisory criteria before the stronger west to northwest winds move in.
A ridge of high pressure will be building over the Northern Rockies today and Thursday. As the ridge pushes east Thursday, a moderately strong southwesterly flow will develop that will produce breezy winds that could help mix down some of the warmer temperatures.
A strong ridge will build over the region leading to a substantial warming trend. Aside from a slight chance of showers in the high country late Thursday night, conditions should be be dry.
high amplitude ridge axis moves toward the area in between storm systems across the east and off the west coast. High temperatures in the low to mid 50s across far eastern Colorado with mid 50s to around 60 elsewhere.
457 AM EDT Wed Apr 5 2017 A warm front will extend through the forecast area today. The front will lift north of the area tonight ahead of a strong cold front. The cold front will move through the area late tonight. Also, there may be a prolonged period of thunderstorms along the warm front this afternoon into the evening resulting in excessive rainfall.
A strong high pressure ridge will gradually be forced east across Montana through Thursday by an approaching low pressure trough from the Pacific Ocean, keeping most of North Central and Southwest Montana dry. Mainly high level cloudiness will move through the ridge today and tonight, but clouds will be fairly thin today, yielding a mostly sunny sky.
236 AM PDT Wed Apr 5 2017 High pressure aloft will gradually weaken the next few days.
Temperatures will turn a bit cooler on Wednesday given the additional cloudiness vs today.
1150 PM MDT Tue Apr 4 2017 Nearly clear skies tonight will allow for a significant cool off with overnight low temps dropping well below freezing in the valleys. Scattered snow showers will continue over the higher mountains of the Continental Divide through this evening, then dissipate overnight. A small vort max dropping down the west side of the trough within the cold advection and instability behind the trough, over NE Utah and NW CO, will produce isolated showers there until about sunset. ridging will take over bringing about a significant warming trend. night will be 5-10 degrees warmer than today and tonight. The ridge will continue building over the area Thursday and Thursday night, with dry and warmer conditions expected.
Very Windy, Much Cooler and Showery Today. Showers will accompany the passage of the upper level trough. Otherwise much cooler temperatures can be expected with temperatures steadying off or falling into the upper 40s to lower 50s. Our region will be under the influence of a northwesterly flow aloft Thursday to the west of the deep upper level trough to the east. Another disturbance sliding south on the backside of this upper trough may maintain cloud cover and a few showers in the eastern Ozarks Thursday. Upper level ridging will build back over the region heading into this weekend while southerly winds return. A broad upper level trough will makes it way from the western U.
425 AM MDT Wed Apr 5 2017 The low pressure system has moved off to the east ending most of the snow showers over the region. Behind it upper level ridging will increase with QG subsidence increasing. Temperatures for today will be in the lower 50s under partly cloudy skies.
356 AM MDT Wed Apr 5 2017 A ridge of high pressure over the west promises quiet weather and moderating temperatures through the middle part of the week. Despite freezing temperatures this morning, warm air advection (WAA) and sunny/mostly sunny skies will allow temperatures to rebound to near normal levels today. Continued WAA will prevent another freeze in the lower central valleys of eastern Utah and western Colorado tonight. Warming continues into Thursday with highs rising to near 10 degrees above normal as the ridge axis moves over the area.
313 AM CDT Wed Apr 5 2017 The cold front has cleared all of North Texas early this morning as evidenced by a wind shift to the northwest, much cooler temperatures, and a broken line of precipitation now to the southeast of the region. High pressure will build into the Southern Plains today and will be centered over Texas tonight. Lows tonight should fall into the low/mid 40s areawide with a few outlying spots falling into the upper 30s.
Meanwhile the low pressure system responsible for the increasing clouds and showers will continue approaching the two state area and the pcpn should increase in coverage tomorrow for our region.
Watching quick moving cold front slice through the northern counties of our CWA and it should be along the coast over the next hour or so. The strongest winds do not necessarily coincide with the lowest relative humidity values today as the winds will be diminishing throughout the day and the lowest RH values occur late afternoon. Small craft advisory across all waters today behind the cold front passage.
Everyone in southern Indiana & central KY should pay special attention to the weather today and be alert for any watches/warnings issued! ===================== Gusty Winds Thursday ===================== Very gusty WNW winds are expected on Thursday in the wake of this strong low pressure system. Light Snow and Freezing Temperatures Return. While elevated winds will prevent frost formation and freezing temperatures on Fri morning, winds will be lighter under high pressure Sat morning which may allow temperatures to drop to or below the freezing mark. A strong low pressure system will approach from the west today bringing showers and storms to the region this afternoon and evening. A cold front will move through tonight with winds shifting to more westerly. Light showers will develop behind the cold front and move in late tonight.
127 AM EDT Wed Apr 5 2017 Mainly dry and warm conditions are expected through much of Wednesday before the next low pressure system approaches. This will mean downslope warming west of the ridges and likely eradication of any low cloud field. Thus, high temperatures were raised to the west of the ridges. Fries Low pressure will make it's approach overnight Wednesday and into Thursday. Deep, moist, southerly flow in advance of the low pressure system will support categorical PoPs by Wednesday night but hints of a dry slot should support waning coverage by Thursday morning, at least over eastern Ohio.
MVFR conditions are expected to continue at all TAF sites for the next few hours as the cold front has pushed through all areas, and sky coverage will continue to improve. Skies should become mostly clear after 15Z as high pressure will build over the Panhandles. The upper level low that has been responsible for this has slowly eased its way from New Mexico into the Panhandles and is expected to continue pushing eastward over night. After its exit, the weather for the rest of the work week and into the weekend becomes quite benign as high pressure settle over the central CONUS.
A warm front is moving in over the region this evening. The Cascade crest will do better since it will be closer to the cold front that remains offshore. We were underdone with our temperatures from earlier today and we should be 4-8 degrees warmer tomorrow in comparison. /SVH 06Z TAFS: A warm front will spread altostratus and cirrostratus cover across the region tonight and Wednesday.
These denser clouds have kept temperatures in the lower to mid 40s along and south of Interstate 90 and where the clouds are thinner the temperatures have fallen into the 30s. Meanwhile further to the west, the water vapor channels are showing a trough over the eastern Dakotas. However its dew points and temperatures seem far too low and with its bias of keeping temperatures far too cold when it believes that there is snow on the ground, stayed more toward the warmer GFS, ECMWF, and RAP solutions. Besides this system, the trough currently over the Dakotas will also provide a chance of showers across southern Minnesota, west- central Wisconsin and the remainder of northeast Iowa this afternoon.
A cold front will move through the area from the northwest beginning at 05/15Z and exiting by 06/00Z.
An upper level ridge will approach from the west today while the upper jet/northwest flow shifts to our east. Dry but breezy conditions are expected at the sfc as high pressure builds in from the west within this anticyclonic flow pattern. Temperatures for Thursday should rise another 10 degrees or so as the ridge moves over the Rockies and cloud cover thins out within increased subsidence.
Minor accumulations are possible over the higher elevations. high pressure is forecast to build over the Great Basin and move eastward tonight into western Colorado. Ahead of the upper ridge, broad northwesterly flow aloft will prevail across Colorado. Under sunny skies, areas out east will warm into the mid 50s, while those areas that saw accumulations yesterday may only reach into the lower to mid 40s. Mozley Upper ridge over the western U.
A warm front is accelerating northward in far South Alabama this morning, which has caused elevated supercell development. This batch of storms will probably exit into Georgia around Noon or 1 PM, leaving being somewhat cooler air across East AL and West GA which may play a crucial role in tornado potential later in the afternoon. Another round of severe storms should initiate around 3-4 PM along the cold front from Northwest AL southward to around Demopolis. The clouds will be associated with a warm front and much increased moisture from the south.
311 AM CDT Wed Apr 5 2017 An upper level trough is over the central part of the country with west to northwest flow over the CWA. A cold front is moving through the area with northerly winds. The upper trough will move toward the east coast on Thursday with southerly winds returning to West Texas and southeast New Mexico.
523 AM CDT Wed Apr 5 2017 Temperatures around the region are holding in the lower 70s ahead of the latest front that is expected through southeast Texas well before the noon hour and exiting south central Louisiana coast by the afternoon hours. Lafayette will be a bit warmer today than most locations as the front will take a bit longer to push through.
Upper ridging builds over the Rockies and then shifts over the Plains late this week.
Precipitation band on the backside of the upper low has not made very much progress to the north. Expect only a little more northward progress this afternoon before precipitation starts moving east as the upper low kicks out. Wednesday will be sunny and warmer.
High pressure building over the region will bring dry weather and warmer temperatures today and Thursday.
Latest water vapor imagery shows a rather vigorous upper trough over the nations mid section with some rather chilly temperatures aloft. In fact, the NAM is cold enough that a snow flake or two can not be ruled out across the higher terrain but surface temps would not support any issues. Northwest flow will continue on Thursday but high pressure will be building in to provide a dry day with warmer temperatures. The high pressure will dominate through the remainder of the period.
VFR conditions will take hold later this morning, with breezy south to southwest winds expected this afternoon ahead of a strong cold front that will move through on Thursday.
An impressive upper level low has been tracking across Oklahoma into southern Kansas today.
Upper ridge over the region today will provide very warm temperatures across the region. Regional satellite loops indicate a large cirrus shield trying to make it's way south today as the ridge axis shifts east. SW flow in advance of an approaching cold front will increase warm air advection on Thursday in the lower layers.
Early morning infrared satellite imagery is showing a developing cold front moving through eastern Texas, while closer to home, the remnants of the front that produced storms over northern Florida and the Nature Coast yesterday gradually decays. With the winds increasing, the high risk of rip currents will continue through tonight, and likely into Thursday as well. With the front clearing the area fairly early on Thursday under breezy west to northwest winds, temperatures should be quite a bit lower Thursday afternoon, with highs in the 70s from around the Interstate 4 corridor north, and in the low 80s over Southwest Florida.
337 AM CDT Wed Apr 5 2017 The main upper level low pressure system that helped to produce Christmas in April across the northwestern Panhandles has now moved well east of our region into SE Kansas and SW Missouri.
553 AM CDT Wed Apr 5 2017 Upper low has made it to central Kansas, and will be tracking across central Illinois this evening. Quite a range in temperatures on tap today as the strong northeast flow continues north of the low, with lower-mid 40s along and northwest of the Illinois River, ranging up to near 70 near Lawrenceville and Olney. As the low pulls away tonight and strengthens, northwest winds will significantly increase, with gusts approaching 40 mph. Freezing level drops down to around 1,000 feet overnight per NAM/GFS soundings across the north, with top-down method suggesting some rain/snow mix as far south as about I-74. The start of this part of the forecast remains dominated by the upper low, which will continue to deepen as it lifts northeast into New York Thursday night.
304 AM CDT Wed Apr 5 2017 Upper low has made it to central Kansas, and will be tracking across central Illinois this evening. Quite a range in temperatures on tap today as the strong northeast flow continues north of the low, with lower-mid 40s along and northwest of the Illinois River, ranging up to near 70 near Lawrenceville and Olney. As the low pulls away tonight and strengthens, northwest winds will significantly increase, with gusts approaching 40 mph. Freezing level drops down to around 1,000 feet overnight per NAM/GFS soundings across the north, with top-down method suggesting some rain/snow mix as far south as about I-74. The start of this part of the forecast remains dominated by the upper low, which will continue to deepen as it lifts northeast into New York Thursday night.
421 AM EDT Wed Apr 5 2017 Showers and scattered thunderstorms are expected today and tonight as a strong low pressure system moves slowly northeast from Missouri across our area. Rain may change to snow late tonight and Thursday as the low moves away with strong north winds and colder temperatures in its wake.
CAM models showing convective initiation near the low in central to northeast Oklahoma and this pushes northeast into the area evolving into more line segments. There is the potential for hail up to two inches in diameter (or perhaps slightly larger) given steep mid-level lapse rates, strong deep layer shear, and fairly low freezing levels. There will be the potential for splitting supercells to the north of the warm front. This will especially be true along a surface warm front where low level vorticity will be maximized.
Will hold off carrying any lower ceilings there though as there is not a lot of agreement the lower deck will make it to KMAF.
WHICH WILL STILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND THE UPPER 50S TO UPPER 60S MOUNTAINS. DUE TO RETURN FLOW FROM THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF TO THE EAST. WARMER AND CONTINUED DRY WEATHER AHEAD FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK.
Area catches a break from storms today as system that brought Mondays storms continues to advance into Missouri, leaving weak mid level ridging aloft for the day today. Could still see some patchy morning fog before skies start to clear out and bring highs into the lower 80s this afternoon. Next system out over the Rockies advances a frontal boundary across the high plains today and through the evening hours.
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING, PROVIDING EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
1205 PM EDT TUE MAY 10 2016 HIGH PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO WILL REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH INTO THE EVENING TO KEEP A WARM FRONT NEAR THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.
635 AM CDT TUE MAY 10 2016 CLOSED LOW OVER YELLOWSTONE EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A STRONG WAVE EXTENDING FROM EASTERN MONTANA INTO MISSOURI. RIDGE EXTENDING FROM TENNESSEE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. UPPER LOW PROGGED TO SHIFT EAST NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY TODAY WITH AN UPPER JET ROUNDING THE TROUGH AND COMING ACROSS THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE WESTERN SANDHILLS THROUGH THE DAY. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY LIFT NORTHEAST INTO CANADA WEDNESDAY.
/ISSUED 419 AM CDT TUE MAY 10 2016/ EARLY MORNING SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED EAST OF THE FL PANHANDLE MAINTAINING A SRLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA. WHILE LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OVER THE PLAINS STATES.
/ISSUED 434 AM CDT TUE MAY 10 2016/ AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS CURRENTLY SWINGING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES. THIS MOVEMENT HAS SUPPRESSED UPPER RIDGE THAT WAS OVERHEAD SOUTH. WITH THE POSITION OF THE TROUGH SO FAR NORTH. WEDNESDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY IN TERMS OF TEMPS AND POPS AS TROUGH TO THE NORTH LIFTS FURTHER AWAY FROM THE AREA AND SLIGHT RIDGING TRIES TO DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHEAST.
CURRENT ANALYSIS SHOWS THE THERMAL TROUGH ALONG THE COAST AND IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT INLAND LATE THIS AFTERNOON, BUT NOT UNTIL MAX HEATING HAS BEEN REACHED AT THE COAST. THEREFORE EXPECT BROOKINGS TO GET INTO THE LOWER 80S AND NORTH BEND COULD END UP IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL BE CONFINED TO AREAS BEYOND 10 NM AND WILL START TO DECREASE THIS MORNING AS A THERMAL TROUGH MOVES FROM THE WATERS CLOSER TO THE COAST.
/ISSUED 337 AM CDT TUE MAY 10 2016/ Scattered showers starting to shift east of the region this morning in association with departing upper low. Broad upper trough will slowly begin to shift east into the central plains on Wednesday. Cold front is expected to push into northeast Oklahoma by late afternoon with thunderstorms developing along front by late afternoon. Although deep layer shear in association with upper trough will remain relatively weak, MLCAPES on the order of 2000-3000 j/kg will support a damaging wind/large hail threat as multicell thunderstorms/clusters move across much of eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas through the evening hours.
HIGH PRESSURE BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE SOUTH FL WEATHER TODAY, LEADING TO ANOTHER WARM DAY. DEWPOINTS HAVE CREPT BACK UP INTO THE LOW-MID 60S SO AIRMASS WON'T FEEL AS COMFORTABLE AS THE WEEKEND, ALONG WITH HIGHS CLIMBING BACK INTO THE MID-UPPER 80S OVER THE INTERIOR AND GULF COAST. PREVAILING EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL HOLD EAST COAST TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 80S. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND JET PASSING WELL TO THE NORTH WILL BRING INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS WITH SKIES PARTLY CLOUDY THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING, PROVIDING EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
UPPER LOW IN SWRN MONTANA THIS MORNING WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS SRN MONTANA TODAY AND TONIGHT TAKING MOST OF THE SHOWERS WITH IT.
With the cloudiness in place, expect highs to be a bit cooler than yesterday.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC INTO THE NORTHER GULF WATERS.
WINDS ARE BRISK WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW MAKING IT A COLD RAW DAY BUT SPEEDS ARE REMAINING BELOW WARNING LEVELS.
DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS WILL BE OVER THE BRUSH COUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE 85H THETA-E RIDGE FROM THE LAREDO AREA NORTHWARD INTO THE HILL COUNTRY.
Expect chilly conditions tonight as low temperatures in the northern valleys approach the freezing mark.
***From previous discussion*** An upper ridge begins to move in on Wednesday and the pressure gradients begin to relax.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND A LITTLE COOLER TODAY DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER.
/ISSUED 400 AM CDT TUE MAY 10 2016/ WITH 3 AM TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. EARLY MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER OKLAHOMA AND AN ATTENDANT DRYLINE STRETCHING SOUTHWEST TOWARDS DEL RIO. EXPECT THIS FEATURE TO REMAIN ALMOST STATIONARY TODAY AS MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO DRAW MOIST AIR /DEW POINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S/ ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. HIGHS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOW 80S ALONG THE UPPER TEXAS COAST TO UPPER 80S INLAND WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. DAY IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. SENDING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND INTO TEXAS.
1028 AM EDT TUE MAY 10 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
756 AM EDT TUE MAY 10 2016 A COMBINATION OF FACTORS INCLUDING A CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE INFLUENCE OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. WITH THE LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW THERE DOES REMAIN SOME UNCERTAINTY IN EXACTLY HOW WIDESPREAD THIS MVFR STRATUS WILL BECOME. WITH STRONG UPPER LEVEL WAVE/TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ACTING AS KICKER SYSTEM.
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 82 64 85 66 / 60 30 40 20 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 82 62 81 64 / 50 50 40 30 OAK RIDGE, TN 81 62 81 65 / 60 50 50 30 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 80 60 78 61 / 50 60 50 40.
IT LOOKS LIKE THE LOW STRATUS BREAKING UP FAIRLY WELL AND EXPECT TO SEE A REVERSAL IN THE SKY COVER WITH GREATER COVERAGE OVER SRN/ERN AREAS. THE LOW STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE THROUGH THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. UPPER AND SURFACE RIDGING WILL PREVAIL ON WEDNESDAY AND WITH PWATS FALLING BELOW AN INCH.