Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
255 AM MDT Wed Sep 22 2021 Skies were clear across the forecast area again overnight as a transitory ridge of high pressure built overhead. Strong radiational cooling allowed temperatures to fall below freezing at KCAG where a Freeze Warning remained in effect. According to models, the ridge axis is driven east of the Continental Divide today as a mid-level trough moves over the Pacific Northwest this afternoon. The trough deepens as it moves over Great Basin tonight spreading high clouds across much of the forecast area late. Cloud cover in combination with warmer afternoon temperatures today will result in milder overnight lows.
Warmer temperatures west of the valley where weak mixing may continue throughout the night. Warmer and breezier on Wednesday with highs in the 70s likely and overnight lows back into the mid to upper 40s.
105 AM EDT Wed Sep 22 2021 Aviation - Heavy rain event into Wednesday as upper trough closes off Overall our ongoing forecast looks great. This results in anticyclonic ridging in the I-94 to I-96 area after midnight and draws in drier air at mid - levels.
1238 AM CDT Wed Sep 22 2021 (This evening through Wednesday) Cold front has made it through all of West Central Texas and brought breezy, cooler, and drier conditions to the area. Cooler air mass will remain in place with highs in the lower 80s. Lows in the lower to mid 50s are expected, but low lying or protected areas are likely to fall into the 40s.
254 AM CDT Wed Sep 22 2021 The upper trough axis continues to move across the region overnight and will continue to move east today as it strengthens into a deep closed low over the ohio valley by tonight. Meanwhile the western CONUS ridge will slide east as well, resulting in northwest flow/weak ridging overhead today and tomorrow. A central great basin trough axis will tighten up the sfc pressure gradient across the area tomorrow brining breezy south- southwest winds to the area. This will help increase afternoon high temps into the low 80s. A deep upper trough is progged to develop over Manitoba by tomorrow night.
Our northern counties have the highest chance of seeing some patchy fog, but have kept it out of the forecast at this time. Tomorrow will be a few degrees warmer with sunny skies, particularly across western Minnesota as weak ridging aloft begins to work eastward.
Light winds and clear skies across the region overnight led to one of our cooler nights in a while, as 3 AM temperatures across the region were in the 40s. High pressure will remain in control today, but slowly shift eastward with winds gradually becoming more southerly as we go through the day and night.
1157 PM CDT Tue Sep 21 2021 Summary: High pressure building in will lead to clearing skies, light winds and cold temperatures tonight. Frost is likely in many areas with some areas dropping below freezing. Broad cyclonic flow from an area of low pressure well to the northeast was bringing cloud cover to the Northland this afternoon. A large area of high pressure was situated across the western two-thirds of the CONUS and this will expand across the Northland overnight. A Frost Advisory remains in effect for much of northeastern Minnesota for tonight and a few areas along the Iron Range may fall to freezing or below.
356 AM CDT Wed Sep 22 2021 An upper level low is located across eastern Missouri early this morning. The low will move off to the east today. A cooler air mass is moving into the area with the upper level low. Temperatures are currently in the lower to middle 50s across the area early this morning. Despite plenty of sunshine, highs will only top out in the upper 60s to the lower 70s this afternoon.
158 AM EDT Wed Sep 22 2021 A line of thunderstorms is likely this afternoon with the passage of a cold front. Showers will continue throughout the early morning, primarily east of Pittsburgh, as deep moisture convergence resides over the ridges. Warm, moist air ahead of a cold front will keep temperatures above the climatological average. A trough near the Midwest will continue to deepen and dig eastward later today. A surface cold front, ahead of the occluding system will also cross this afternoon and exit into central PA by late evening.
Showers and thunderstorms continue this evening ahead of the cold front that is just starting to move through the region.
Dewpoints have fallen into the low to mid 40s across much of the FWD CWA. Winds will increase back to around 10-15 MPH with gusts to around 20 MPH during the afternoon Wednesday as diurnally-driven downward momentum transfer allows stronger winds in the lowest 2 kft AGL to mix down towards the surface. Otherwise, expect mostly sunny skies with high temperatures in the low to mid 80s across the region. /Issued 253 PM CDT Tue Sep 21 2021/ /Wednesday night through Tuesday/ A building ridge aloft and the gradual return of Gulf moisture will result in warmer weather late in the week.
Prevailing tranquil conditions will continue today and tonight as weak ridging aloft moves out of the Colorado Rockies into the Western High Plains. A lack of instability due to a much drier air mass spread across the high plains of western Kansas will keep any precip chances out of the forecast through the entirety of the period. Look for highs well up into the mid/upper 70s(F) across central and much of southwest Kansas with the lower 80s(F) possible in portions of southwest Kansas near and along the Colorado and Oklahoma borders.
The southerly sfc flow and a building upper ridge will lead to warmer daytime temps with highs in the 70s.
(Today and tonight) High pressure will begin to build back over the area today, kicking off the gradual warming trend to come over the next few days. However, for today and tonight, the cooler airmass will remain in place over the area through tonight and will keep daytime temperatures in the 80s and overnight lows in the upper 50s to 60s. Had to adjust overnight/morning lows slightly warmer today given the slower than expected cooling we have seeing during the overnight period.
General VFR conditions were noted across the forecast area ahead of a cold front currently moving across Mississippi. The cold front is expected to reach I-65 by 09z, then move southeast of the forecast area by 18z Wednesday.
Conditions will dry out and warm up for the rest of the week as high pressure builds into the area.
Otherwise, temperatures were running in the low to mid 60s. This will be a result of cooler temperatures filtering across the relatively warmer waters.
An upper level ridge strengthens and moves east throughout the short term forecast period, which results in upper level west to northwesterly flow across the state. One result of the very dry airmass, in combination with light winds and clear skies overnight, will be below freezing temperatures over the mountain valleys. Sub-freezing temperatures are also expected over some locations of the upper Arkansas River Valley, the Wet Mountain Valley, and the upper Rio Grande River Valley. Most guidance has temperatures in the upper 30s, but there are still a few models that have temperatures below freezing. As the ridge axis propagates to the east, temperatures will begin to warm over the region once again, with values in the upper 70s to low 80s over the plains and mountain valleys and the 60s to low 70s over Lake, Teller, and northern El Paso Counties.
At the beginning of the short term forecast period, the westwardly tilted closed low will stretch from central Illinois (at 500 mb) to just east of Cincinnati, Ohio at the surface, with the greatest vorticity advection covering the eastern edge of the WFO PAH forecast area. With the departing of the low from the area this evening, rain chances and instability should exit parts of southwest Indiana by mid-evening tonight.
1256 AM CDT Wed Sep 22 2021 A cold front is currently making its way southward across the region with a line of showers and thunderstorms leading to reduced visibilities/ceilings over some of the area terminals. High pressure and dry conditions will develop leading to a clearing of the cloud cover through the day.
1240 AM CDT Wed Sep 22 2021 Occasional showers will continue across portions of east central Illinois tonight and Wednesday as an upper low moves across the region. The upper Low should develop overnight, strengthening into a cut- off Wednesday afternoon over the Ohio River Valley.
A strong cold front has progressed south of the Rio Grande this afternoon, with gusty northeasterly winds and much cooler temperatures in its wake. The breezy to windy conditions are expected to persist another few hours this afternoon, and thus, the High Wind Warning in effect for Guadalupe Pass has been extended until 400 PM MDT. Lows will be in the lower to middle 50s for most, with 60s through the Rio Grande Valley, and middle to upper 40s possible across portions of Southeast New Mexico, the northwestern Permian Basin, Marfa Plateau, and the higher terrain.
1930Z water vapor loop continues to show an elongated trough across the region, slowly pushing to the east. Expansive thermal CU field with moisture in the 5000 to 6000 ft agl layer this afternoon is expected to rapidly dissipate after sunset as high pressure builds across the region. Light winds in the lowest few thousand feet and clearing skies will result in efficient nocturnal cooling. Temperatures for most areas will drop into the lower 40s, but would not be surprised to see a few spots bottom out in the upper 30s, especially across low-lying areas. High pressure moves east of the forecast area Wednesday, resulting in light southerly return flow.
On Wednesday, high pressure in place across Arizona will bring a continuation of dry weather and near average daytime temperatures.
At the moment, most Keys island communities are rain-free, with current air temperatures in the lower 80s, with dewpoint temperatures in the mid to upper 70s.
Breezy conditions will develop in the afternoon over eastern areas of New Mexico, but otherwise mostly tranquil weather is forecast as high pressure and a dry airmass dominate the pattern. Cooler, dry, and breezy conditions today will give way to warmer weather for the first day of fall on Wednesday.
This was keeping temps across that area some 5 to 8 degrees warmer than areas north and west that were already into the upper 40s. High pressure is expected to remain in place across the area through the short term period. More of the same today with quiet weather and cooler temps. However, today cooler H85 temps are directly overhead at peak heating. Do think that today is cooler than yesterday by a couple of degrees. Overall the message is the same, Fall like weather with cooler temps.
Some mid and high cloudiness with an upper level trough/surface cold front Wednesday.
1053 PM CDT Tue Sep 21 2021 (This evening through Wednesday) This morning's cold front continues to push southward into Texas this afternoon. In its wake, a drier and cooler airmass has settled into the region leading to quite a pleasant afternoon.
350 AM CDT Wed Sep 22 2021 Temperatures have fallen as expected this morning with areas in our northern CWA from Douglas to Kanabec counties seeing temperatures in the low 40s and even upper 30s in some spots, with the coldest temperatures in north-central MN in the mid 30s. Fair weather cumulus will be the story as far as cloud cover goes once again today, with ridging building over the region promoting large scale subsidence aside from diurnal mixing.
228 AM CDT Wed Sep 22 2021 A nice, quiet day is on tap today for the first day of Fall with mostly sunny skies, above average temperatures (highs in the low 70s to low 80s), and southerly winds of 10 to 20 mph. Essentially, the day begins with a thermal ridge located over the eastern Rockies/western Plains. Zonal flow aloft will advect this warmer dry air into the area leading to temperatures that are 5 to 10 degrees above average for this time of the year, especially in western North Dakota. The one concern with warmer temperatures and continued dry air is in regards to fire weather.
Unfortunately the cooler conditions will be short lived as warming trend develops into the weekend.
As the upper level support pulls away, the cold front will weakly push into the Florida Peninsula and stall out across central Florida by Thursday evening.
High pressure encompasses the western Atlc with center located off of the northeast U. coast and ridge axis well north of ECFL. The highest coverage late today/this evening likely to be over the eastern peninsula, but west of I-95 across interior sections. Low temperatures will drop down into the low-to-mid-70s.
552 AM CDT Wed Sep 22 2021 An upper level low is located across eastern Missouri early this morning. The low will move off to the east today. A cooler air mass is moving into the area with the upper level low. Temperatures are currently in the lower to middle 50s across the area early this morning. Despite plenty of sunshine, highs will only top out in the upper 60s to the lower 70s this afternoon. Lows tonight into Thursday morning will fall into the lower to middle 40s. Cooler conditions will occur again on Thursday as highs in the lower to middle 70s occur, as the upper level low stalls over the Ohio Valley. An upper level ridge will then start to move east towards the region late this week.
/issued 302 AM CDT Wed Sep 22 2021/ Upper level high pressure ridge center from central Arizona into southwest New Mexico will shift into far west Texas and southern New Mexico tonight. Today will remain near or slightly cooler than normal. RMcQueen By Thursday the upper level ridging will be in place across the forecast area although heights will only be around 587 dm.
403 AM CDT Wed Sep 22 2021 Through the day today, an upper-level closed low is forecast to propagate slowly eastward over the eastern Midwest/Lower Great Lakes while deepening as it becomes vertically stacked with a developing and quickly occluding low-level cyclone across IN and OH. However, as the closed low deepens, it will promote another round of light stratiform rain forming across IL this morning into afternoon driven by mid-level deformation that could edge into south-central IL. Precip should exit this area by evening as the closed low begins to depart to the northeast and large-scale subsidence becomes increasingly dominant over the Midwest.
420 AM MDT Wed Sep 22 2021 Aviation Section Updated Generally, with an area of high pressure residing over the Northern Rockies for the next several days, the chances for any precipitation is quite low through the weekend.
Generally, with an area of high pressure residing over the Northern Rockies for the next several days, the chances for any precipitation is quite low through the weekend.
On Thursday, high clouds will increase in coverage as an upper-level trough encroaches upon the Northern Plains. A cold front will track from west to east through the area, shifting winds to the north, but temperatures will once again climb into the 70s or even low 80s for some (5 to 10 degrees above average) prior to CAA's influence.
Water Vapor Imagery reveals an expansive longwave trough over the Lower Mississippi Valley with an upper low centered near St. The aforementioned trough will quickly eject into the Ohio River Valley by this evening. High temperatures will actually be very close to our recent dewpoints, with readings only in the low to mid 70s. Low temperatures will bottom out in the lower 50s for Thursday morning.
521 AM MDT Wed Sep 22 2021 Water vapor shows large ridge over the western/central CONUS with trof just offshore the Pac NW. At the surface, broad trof stretches from the Rocky Mountain Front through the Northern Plains. Warm advection will continue today with thermal ridge axis pushing into northeast WY. Very warm/dry conditions expected with highs general in the low to mid 80s, 70s in the Black Hills. Aforementioned upper trof quickly moves through the Northern Rockies and into the Northern Plains on Thursday, pushing a cold front through the region.
upper level ridging over Utah is forecast to shift slowly eastward across Colorado through tonight. Warming aloft associated with the upper ridge will allow for temperatures to warm this afternoon, with highs in the 70s to lower 80s. The San Luis Valley will likely fall into the lower 30s. Mozley Long range models are in better agreement on the evolution of upper trough moving into the Pacific Northwest, with energy splitting as a weak and rather dry cut off low develops over the Great Basin on Thursday and drops southwestward into the Desert Southwest by the end of the week.
Approaching steadily from the west is our much-anticipated cold front. Temperatures 10-15 degrees F below normal continue in this cooler air mass with calm winds and clear skies. Highs remain chilly on Thursday with most areas in the low 70s and higher terrain topping out in the upper 60s.
641 AM CDT Wed Sep 22 2021 High pressure dominates the surface weather pattern today between two regions of upper-level lower heights. An upstream ridge makes an attempt at building into tonight, while getting squeezed between upper-level disturbances. Calm winds and clear skies tonight will allow temperatures to reach the low 40s to low 30s in our typical cold spots. The downstream upper-level low turns north on Thursday to march over the mitten of Michigan before it's picked up by the next trough Thursday night. Overall, dry northerly flow associated with the squashed Upper Mississippi Valley ridging will keep similar weather for Thursday that we had Wednesday.
In upper levels, overall mean ridge in the western CONUS and trough in the eastern CONUS will ensure a generally northwest flow aloft. At the surface, the ridge helping to dampen the winds and allow for near maximum radiational cooling this morning will shift, and allow perhaps some gusts from the south near 15 mph in our western CWA today, considering expected surface pressure gradients. I did bump up south wind speeds for both this afternoon and Thursday afternoon ahead of the next cold front.
620 AM CDT Wed Sep 22 2021 Temperatures have fallen as expected this morning with areas in our northern CWA from Douglas to Kanabec counties seeing temperatures in the low 40s and even upper 30s in some spots, with the coldest temperatures in north-central MN in the mid 30s. Fair weather cumulus will be the story as far as cloud cover goes once again today, with ridging building over the region promoting large scale subsidence aside from diurnal mixing.
By tomorrow, mostly sunny skies return with slightly cooler temperatures.
/Issued 609 AM EDT Wed Sep 22 2021/ Busy start to the short term as approaching cold front currently situated over the SE progresses eastward towards the CWA. This cold front will be the main player in the short term, making it to the metro ATL area during the morning/early afternoon. Morgan The cool, dry airmass that moves into the CWA behind the cold front at the beginning of the period is quite dry for this time of year.
Breezy conditions will develop in the afternoon over eastern areas of New Mexico, but otherwise mostly tranquil weather is forecast as high pressure and a dry airmass dominate the pattern.
High pressure ridge over central into northeastern MN as anticipated. Warmer as well with highs in the 70s. Cold front will quickly move southeast and into DVL basin mid afternoon into the RRV by 00z Fri.
624 AM CDT Wed Sep 22 2021 Through the day today, an upper-level closed low is forecast to propagate slowly eastward over the eastern Midwest/Lower Great Lakes while deepening as it becomes vertically stacked with a developing and quickly occluding low-level cyclone across IN and OH. However, as the closed low deepens, it will promote another round of light stratiform rain forming across IL this morning into afternoon driven by mid-level deformation that could edge into south-central IL. Precip should exit this area by evening as the closed low begins to depart to the northeast and large-scale subsidence becomes increasingly dominant over the Midwest.
555 AM PDT Wed Sep 22 2021 A cold front on Wednesday is expected to bring increasing clouds and breezy winds across portions of central and eastern Washington.
The first high pressure is a weakening high pressure that is slowly being shoved equatorward by an approaching surface front and associated trough. Meanwhile, the second high pressure is much stronger and holding firm across the western North Atlantic.
636 AM CDT Wed Sep 22 2021 (Today and tonight) High pressure will begin to build back over the area today, kicking off the gradual warming trend to come over the next few days. However, for today and tonight, the cooler airmass will remain in place over the area through tonight and will keep daytime temperatures in the 80s and overnight lows in the upper 50s to 60s. Had to adjust overnight/morning lows slightly warmer today given the slower than expected cooling we have seeing during the overnight period.
250 AM PDT Wed Sep 22 2021 A cold front on Wednesday is expected to bring increasing clouds and breezy winds across portions of central and eastern Washington.
Elsewhere, IFR/MVFR cigs wl prevail this morning while Cigs continue to clear from the west in the wake of a cold front. /22/ Today and Tonight: Early morning surface analysis had a cold front just southeast of our CWA. Early morning water vapor imagery/RAP analysis showed the circulation around a closed low centered over the mid Mississippi Valley. Although cooler and drier air was filtering into our CWA in the wake of the cold front, upper level troughing over our CWA associated with the closed low was helping produce a broken band some light showers nearly along and northwest of the Natchez Trace. Under clear skies and a near calm wind, strong radiational cooling of our cool dry airmass will lead to temperatures bottoming out in the low to mid 50s. Our normal morning lows run in the lower 60s.
The few lone holdouts in the 70s along the Rio Grande will see their temps dropping as well with northeast winds advecting cooler air. Tonight temperatures creep up a couple of degrees, then stronger southeast winds tomorrow cause temps to rebound back to near normal for this time of year, which is still 10-15 degrees cooler than what we were seeing before the front moved through the area.
245 AM PDT Wed Sep 22 2021 Dry and warmer weather this week. Satellite imagery shows the upper trough moving into NorCal as the strong ridge has been nudged east into the northern Rockies.
Some frosty patches of frost will be seen across the Northland this morning as temperatures reach close to freezing. The high pressure system associated with a upper level ridge will continue to bring fair weather to the region today and Thursday.
Over the next 24 hours a upper level trof will move across the PacNW with the tail end breaking away over southern Idaho on Thursday.
720 AM EDT Wed Sep 22 2021 A line of thunderstorms is likely this afternoon, some of which could be strong to severe with the passage of a cold front. Directional shear exists mainly in the lower levels, so a supercell structure that merges and becomes a multi- cellular line looks probable. Cold frontal passage will occur overnight, and the chance for rain will gradually come to an end from southwest to northeast. In the wake of the cold front, Thursday high temperatures will likely stay several degrees below normal.
A cold front recently moved across CKV/BNA/MQY and will cross CSV by 14Z.
528 AM CDT Wed Sep 22 2021 The upper trough axis continues to move across the region overnight and will continue to move east today as it strengthens into a deep closed low over the ohio valley by tonight. Meanwhile the western CONUS ridge will slide east as well, resulting in northwest flow/weak ridging overhead today and tomorrow. A central great basin trough axis will tighten up the sfc pressure gradient across the area tomorrow brining breezy south- southwest winds to the area. This will help increase afternoon high temps into the low 80s. A deep upper trough is progged to develop over Manitoba by tomorrow night.
411 AM MDT Wed Sep 22 2021 Generally, with an area of high pressure residing over the Northern Rockies for the next several days, the chances for any precipitation is quite low through the weekend.