Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Last night there was fog/stratus developing across Southeastern Alabama and portions of Southwest Georgia before sunrise, but with all the high clouds streaming over the region tonight, it seems unlikely to have fog on Saturday morning.
But convection that formed on the higher terrain in Mexico continues to drift toward the border as boundary interactions continue to produce lift for additional development.
High pressure firmly in control of conditions tonight into Saturday with fairly deep southeast flow up to around 850 mb through Saturday evening. While winds will be a bt stronger tonight low temperatures will still be on the cooler side with drier air in place.
247 AM MDT Sat Aug 24 2019 Upper trough axis centered from central MT into the NE panhandle/eastern CO continues to slowly translate through the region. A deepening upper trough and attendant jet streak will push through the northern plains late Sunday. At the surface, a seasonably strong cold front is forecast to move through Sunday afternoon. A much cooler, drier pattern will settle in following the passage of this front.
358 AM CDT Sat Aug 24 2019 Water vapor loop indicated an upper level low pressure system located over eastern MT and was moving to the northeast about 25 knots.
1204 AM CDT Sat Aug 24 2019 Dry, cooler and less humid weather to prevail across central Illinois through Sunday, as high pressure takes hold over the Great Lakes region.
Still, there is plenty of moisture left across the mid state for isolated/scattered convection to re-develop during the afternoon as an upper trough swings through the region.
359 AM CDT Sat Aug 24 2019 An amplified ridge, more of a smaller scale omega block, over the upper Midwest will persist today, finally breaking down tomorrow as a strong trough moves across western Canada. The northern stream has retreated into the northern tier states with the subtropical ridge just off the CA coast. The cold front at the surface is currently over north MS and will remain in the vicinity through the weekend, washing out late Sunday.
213 AM CDT Sat Aug 24 2019 211 AM CDT Tranquil weather is in control across the Lower Great Lakes on this late summer Saturday.
The FL peninsula is wedged between two upper level ridges in the Gulf and western Atlantic, with northerly-to-northwesterly flow aloft over our region. PoPs generally increase northward from the Gulf coast, with the highest chances in southwest GA. High temps are forecast to be in the low 90s, with slightly cooler values along the coast.
Byrd As upper level trof exits forecast area Sunday night, precipitation chances will taper off from northwest to southeast.
FGC Previous discussion: A weakening upper low near Yellowstone National Park this afternoon is expected to be swallowed up by an approaching upper trough from the Pacific NW through Saturday.
Forecast Confidence is high: Conditions today will be quite similar to yesterday under high pressure.
1243 AM CDT Sat Aug 24 2019 1220 PM CDT Dry and cooler conditions will continue through Saturday, and generally for the weekend, though with plentiful sunshine. As the high shifts and winds turn more solidly southeast, the focus of higher waves will shift to the northeast Illinois shoreline.
High pressure ridge will be located to the east northeast Today, with inverted troughing associated with wave over Southern Florida. The inverted trough will move further north overnight, helping to keep showers going through the night over coastal waters, which may affect beaches.
High pressure builds over the work week allowing for a warming and dry pattern.
344 AM CDT Sat Aug 24 2019 Recent water vapor imagery showing a pair of upper troughs upstream of eastern Kansas, with a few clusters of convection associated with the eastern trough over eastern Colorado, and the second feature pushing east-southeast across Wyoming. At the lower levels, broad and deep easterly flow continues over the mid-Mississippi Valley under the expanding upper ridging centered over the western Great Lakes, with more veered flow to the west helping support the overnight convection.
158 AM EDT Sat Aug 24 2019 An approaching cold front will move into the region overnight into Saturday. so lows in the lower 70s. A cold front stalls over The Midlands and CSRA this weekend. High temperatures will be 5 to 7 degrees below normal due to rainfall, extensive cloud cover, and the intrusion of cooler air.
Finally late in the week guidance is indicating an early season cold front.
215 AM CDT Sat Aug 24 2019 High pressure providing the area with mostly clear/cool conditions early this morning. High pressure will continue to provide cooler/dry/pleasant conditions today. However, any precipitation looks to hold off until Sunday night as dry outflow from high pressure over the Great Lakes continues to spill dry air into our area. Slightly warmer overnight lows expected otherwise -in the mid 50s to the lower 60s.
216 AM EDT Sat Aug 24 2019 An area of high pressure over the Great Lakes will gradually drift east over the next few days, with dry conditions extending into the Ohio Valley.
318 AM EDT Sat Aug 24 2019 Across the southern FL peninsula a weak area of low pressure remains in place. Across far southern portions of the area, closer to the low, more moisture should be present which will allow for PoPs in the 40-60 range. On Sunday the low will begin to move further north with a light northerly flow over the region.
Last night there was fog/stratus developing across Southeastern Alabama and portions of Southwest Georgia before sunrise, but with all the high clouds streaming over the region tonight, it seems unlikely to have fog on Saturday morning. Broad synoptic ascent resultant from the trough, and a wedge front backing down the Eastern Seaboard will contribute to a higher coverage of storms by Sunday. Highs are forecast to be in the low 90s with heat indices between 100-105.
1154 PM CDT Fri Aug 23 2019 National water vapor imagery showing a low-amplitude trough digging through the northern Rockies this afternoon, with latest surface analysis showing a stalled frontal boundary draped across northern Oklahoma with extension east into southern Missouri. Across our area, light echos are currently noted across our far southern counties, but drier air associated with high pressure across the western Great Lakes is preventing more widespread development from occurring. Overnight lows will fall into the lower to middle 60s across most locations, however a few upper 50s will be possible across near Kirksville and surrounding locations. For tomorrow, models seem to be trending drier and drier as much of the lower Missouri Vly remains smacked between the high pressure off to our northeast and the stalled front to our west.
High pressure will retreat slowly over the northeast CONUS by Sunday morning. Southeast winds will increase over the west Saturday ahead of the incoming upper trough and pressure falls. Still most deterministic models trending slower with incoming Dakotas trough.
This produces highs in the lower 80s Sunday and with south winds and dew points in the 60s the atmosphere will become unstable. SPC suggested storms developing ahead of a cold front dropping through SD Sunday afternoon and evening. A strong cold front will sweep through wrn and ncntl Nebraska Sunday night.
316 AM EDT Sat Aug 24 2019 High pressure will continue to provide quiet weather this weekend.
That feature continues into the eastern CWA tonight, with weak showers/thunderstorms, while central SD will be under the western portion of the trough and should be dry.
There will be an increase in clouds from the west during the afternoon ahead of an upper trof advancing through the Plains, but the day looks void of precipitation with a continuation of below average temperatures. Glass By early Sunday a short wave attached to a larger, robust trough is moving into the region behind the departing ridge.
313 AM CDT Sat Aug 24 2019 High pressure is centered over southern Ontario and the northern Great Lakes this morning. Cirrus were moving into eastern Iowa and far northeast Missouri from thunderstorms across the High Plains. Dewpoints were in the lower to mid 60s. The 500 mb ridge axis will shift from over eastern Iowa this morning into Michigan by 12 UTC Sunday as a 500 MB trough approaches the area. Low temperatures on Sunday morning are expected to be a couple of degrees warmer than today with increasing cloudiness and some warmer air and moisture being advected into the region.
A somewhat stronger disturbance associated with upper low over MO/IA should move across the area by Sunday evening, bringing another round of precipitation late Sunday and Sunday night.
High pressure, centered over the area this morning, will slowly shift off to the east through Sunday afternoon. Aloft, a 500mb ridge axis will slide overhead today before shifting over the eastern Great Lakes by early Sunday afternoon. Overall, the air is fairly dry; however, flow and possibly a weak lake induced trough off Lake MI, will allow enough moisture to slide across the area to touch off some afternoon CU.
Expect POPs to start decreasing on the back side of this trough by the end of the short term.
1144 PM CDT Fri Aug 23 2019 A weak upper low over over the KS-OK-AR-MO four state area with a shear axis extending from OK into MO will meander slowly or remain quasi-stationary through tonight. Cloud cover should help keep high temperatures much cooler than normal on Saturday with most areas in the 70s to near 80 degrees in the afternoon.
An approaching mid-level trough is expected to move into the area overnight into Saturday. An upper trough over the Rockies was slowly edging east with plenty of precip ahead of it.
For eastern Nebraska and western Iowa, it will be a fight between a moist axis of air stretched from the Dakotas to the southern Plains, and very dry air associated with large scale high pressure over the Great Lakes. By Sunday night the retreating Great Lakes high pressure area will allow for moisture to finally traverse through the forecast area.
A steady northeast breeze then maintains the cool and dry air mass as the center of high pressure remains to our north. The combination of low level thermal troughing and onshore wind limits high temperatures to the upper 60s across the Thumb while daytime heating helps lift inland readings mostly into the lower and mid 70s. The center of cooler and less humid air shifts eastward Sunday as high pressure migrates toward the New England states. Sunday night then starts a transition toward influence of upstream low pressure systems the first of which being the current central Rockies wave/trough as it moves into the Plains and Midwest.
325 AM EDT Sat Aug 24 2019 An approaching cold front will move into the region today. Models indicate cold air damming developing as high pressure ridging in from the northeast shifts low level winds to the northeast. High temperatures will be 5 to 7 degrees below normal due to rainfall, extensive cloud cover, and the intrusion of cooler air.
With the increase in clouds expected today, highs look to be in the low to mid 90s. Expect overnight lows in the low 70s.
Temperatures were around 70 north of Interstate 94 and in the lower to mid-70s elsewhere. Tranquil weather will continue heading into the start of the weekend as surface ridging across the Great Lakes slowly drifts east. On Sunday night, a trough will move northeast out of the Central Plains into the Upper Mississippi River Valley.
Recent water vapor imagery showing a pair of upper troughs upstream of eastern Kansas, with a few clusters of convection associated with the eastern trough over eastern Colorado, and the second feature pushing east-southeast across Wyoming. At the lower levels, broad and deep easterly flow continues over the mid-Mississippi Valley under the expanding upper ridging centered over the western Great Lakes, with more veered flow to the west helping support the overnight convection.
538 AM MDT Sat Aug 24 2019 Upper trough axis centered from central MT into the NE panhandle/eastern CO continues to slowly translate through the region. A deepening upper trough and attendant jet streak will push through the northern plains late Sunday. At the surface, a seasonably strong cold front is forecast to move through Sunday afternoon. A much cooler, drier pattern will settle in following the passage of this front.
A drying trend resumes Sunday with isolated storms limited to near the International border as high pressure starts to build overhead.
By Sunday, the cloud cover will diminish somewhat, and we will return to slightly warmer than normal temperatures and again flirt with heat advisory criteria.
/issued 318 AM EDT Sat Aug 24 2019/ Across the southern FL peninsula a weak area of low pressure remains in place. Across far southern portions of the area, closer to the low, more moisture should be present which will allow for PoPs in the 40-60 range. On Sunday the low will begin to move further north with a light northerly flow over the region.
447 AM CDT Sat Aug 24 2019 This mornings MCS across our western CWA is expected to wind down after sunrise as the low level jet weakens, with some remnants of the storms lingering around through the late morning hours. Cloud cover should keep temperatures slightly cooler than normal for today. As the upper trough interacts with the low level jet, we could expect numerous strong up to severe thunderstorms breaking out across northwest Oklahoma, with damaging winds being the main hazard. As the trough continues to dig producing a northwest flow, the storms will move further south and eastward into central Oklahoma by sunrise Sunday and reach the Red River by late morning. The storms should be out of our area by Sunday evening as the upper trough moves to the east.
343 AM MDT Sat Aug 24 2019 Overnight GOES-16 WV/IR loop showed the mid/upper level trough progressing through eastern WY. The trough and front will continue their eastward trek across High Plains this morning, allowing drier air to spread east as well. Sunday will be 5 to 10 degrees warmer with 700mb temperatures from 14 to 18 Celsius. Westerly winds will increase Sunday afternoon ahead of a stronger front and upper trough to the north. The cold front moves south through the CWA Sunday night, with widely scattered showers and thunderstorms developing over the plains.
500 AM MDT Sat Aug 24 2019 Overnight GOES-16 WV/IR loop showed the mid/upper level trough progressing through eastern WY. The trough and front will continue their eastward trek across High Plains this morning, allowing drier air to spread east as well. Sunday will be 5 to 10 degrees warmer with 700mb temperatures from 14 to 18 Celsius. Westerly winds will increase Sunday afternoon ahead of a stronger front and upper trough to the north. The cold front moves south through the CWA Sunday night, with widely scattered showers and thunderstorms developing over the plains.
/issued 359 AM CDT Sat Aug 24 2019/ An amplified ridge, more of a smaller scale omega block, over the upper Midwest will persist today, finally breaking down tomorrow as a strong trough moves across western Canada. The northern stream has retreated into the northern tier states with the subtropical ridge just off the CA coast. The cold front at the surface is currently over north MS and will remain in the vicinity through the weekend, washing out late Sunday.
1039 AM EDT Sat Aug 24 2019 Currently - A broad weak low pressure system is located over South Florida. Moist confluent flow is in place, thanks to the low, and middling showers continue along a handful of bands. Highest winds will continue to be over our eastern areas, primarily due to both pinching between the low over Florida and a ridge further east and day time heating over the peninsula. A low pressure system over South Florida will result in a cyclonic wind flow across Keys waters. Expect slightly above normal shower coverage across Keys waters due to the presence of this low.
620 AM CDT Sat Aug 24 2019 High pressure providing the area with mostly clear/cool conditions early this morning. High pressure will continue to provide cooler/dry/pleasant conditions today. However, any precipitation looks to hold off until Sunday night as dry outflow from high pressure over the Great Lakes continues to spill dry air into our area. Slightly warmer overnight lows expected otherwise -in the mid 50s to the lower 60s.
High pressure is centered over southern Ontario and the northern Great Lakes this morning. Cirrus were moving into eastern Iowa and far northeast Missouri from thunderstorms across the High Plains. Dewpoints were in the lower to mid 60s. The 500 mb ridge axis will shift from over eastern Iowa this morning into Michigan by 12 UTC Sunday as a 500 MB trough approaches the area. Low temperatures on Sunday morning are expected to be a couple of degrees warmer than today with increasing cloudiness and some warmer air and moisture being advected into the region.
Water vapor loop indicated an upper level low pressure system located over eastern MT and was moving to the northeast about 25 knots.
This wave combined with a weak cold front and unstable conditions will be enough to produce a few showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and night. An upper trough moves across the Canadian Prairies on Sunday with the southern end of the trough dropping into Montana Sunday afternoon. This will bring a cold front through the forecast area with a good chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening along with gusty NW winds that will likely be strong enough for a Lake Wind Advisory for Fort Peck Lake.
541 AM EDT Sat Aug 24 2019 High pressure will continue to provide quiet weather this weekend.
900 AM EDT Sat Aug 24 2019 A broad low pressure area across the southern FL peninsula was analyzed this morning with a surface trof extending NNE across the Treasure Coast and Atlantic waters. High temperatures today will range from the upper 80s to near 90 across the south and near the east coast to the lower to mid 90s across the nrn interior.
Slow-moving upper trof over eastern MT/WY continues to bring some showers w/ isolated TS to our far east early this morning. This activity should diminish by 12z as trof continues to weaken and shift east. Greatest potential for showers and non-severe t-storms is tonight into early Sunday as this wave and another cold front move west to east thru the region. Temperatures today will rise back to the mid 80s to near 90 ahead of the next cold front. Sunday will be several degrees cooler with highs mainly upper 70s to low 80s.
/issued 447 AM CDT Sat Aug 24 2019/ This mornings MCS across our western CWA is expected to wind down after sunrise as the low level jet weakens, with some remnants of the storms lingering around through the late morning hours. Cloud cover should keep temperatures slightly cooler than normal for today. As the upper trough interacts with the low level jet, we could expect numerous strong up to severe thunderstorms breaking out across northwest Oklahoma, with damaging winds being the main hazard. As the trough continues to dig producing a northwest flow, the storms will move further south and eastward into central Oklahoma by sunrise Sunday and reach the Red River by late morning. The storms should be out of our area by Sunday evening as the upper trough moves to the east.
/Tonight through Sunday night/ Upper level trough over our region will continue to slowly shift east through the period. Warmer temperatures have been skewed from west to east across the region due to the higher rain chances to the east.
A more concentrated area of showers and thunderstorms was located offshore in association with broad low pressure area that is lifting north through the region. This low is forecast to continue lifting north northeast across over the next 24 hours and showers and thunderstorms will continue with potential for locally heavy rainfall.
Overnight lows will be in the low to mid 70s. An upper level ridge centered across California will slowly build east into Texas. This will result in an 850mb thermal ridge building into the region.
Skies became partly cloudy the last few hours with scattered showers and a few thunderstorms developed across mainly southern Tennessee and southwest North Carolina behind cold front which had moved south to northern AL and TN by this afternoon. North to northeast winds have brought in slightly drier and cooler air into the forecast area this afternoon. A large corridor of deep moisture and buoyant air will be advancing east out of the Lower Mississippi Valley and southeastern states ahead of an amplifying, North Central U. long wave trough to begin the work week.
Upper trough in the Plains currently should move eastward today, and help showers and thunderstorms develop but mainly in the southern half of the area.
The ridge to the west nudges in just slightly resulting in subtle height rises. At the start of the period, an upper closed low is over south central Canada, just north of the Great Lakes. The upper trough extends down into the northern Plains and Upper Midwest, placing the tri-state region under northwest flow aloft. Ridging over the southwestern CONUS does progress east during this time, which could put a damper on storm chances later in the week.
Cooler temperatures will follow the front to begin the new week.
316 PM CDT Sat Aug 24 2019 Upper trough across the High Plains will gradually shift eastward through the Missouri Valley through Sunday.
257 PM CDT Sat Aug 24 2019 High pressure centered over the Great Lakes into eastern Canada continues to make its presence felt, with comfortable ENE flow across the area offering tolerable dew points and afternoon temps in the mid 70s to near 80. Sunday, good chance PoPs for convection, driven by an evolving H5 trof to our west that will strengthen SSW moist flow over the area, along with providing lift and instability.
Another round of storms may develop late this afternoon/evening but expected to be isolated behind weak cold front due to clouds and cooler temperatures.
1149 AM MDT Sat Aug 24 2019 Overnight GOES-16 WV/IR loop showed the mid/upper level trough progressing through eastern WY. The trough and front will continue their eastward trek across High Plains this morning, allowing drier air to spread east as well. Sunday will be 5 to 10 degrees warmer with 700mb temperatures from 14 to 18 Celsius. Westerly winds will increase Sunday afternoon ahead of a stronger front and upper trough to the north. The cold front moves south through the CWA Sunday night, with widely scattered showers and thunderstorms developing over the plains.
A secondary front Sunday will bring in cooler temperatures and another afternoon of some gusty westerly winds. Temps will only be in the lower 70s in most valleys.
Weak low pressure over the Gulf has remained disorganized and whatever is left of the low will likely get gobbled up by a trough over the central plains/MS delta on Sunday. Convective temperatures are in the lower 90's which looks reachable so am expecting shra/tsra to develop with heating.
Deterministic and ensemble output suggest that an upper ridge will enter the region from the W/NW behind an upper trough/disturbance.
1122 AM EDT Sat Aug 24 2019 Considerable cloud cover this morning and cooler temperatures as cold front has moved through the area overnight. Temperatures will be cooler today in the 70s northeast and higher elevations and lower to middle 80s lower elevations.
236 PM CDT Sat Aug 24 2019 18Z surface data had high pressure over the Great Lakes with a developing low in southeast Colorado.
1121 AM MDT Sat Aug 24 2019 Upper trough axis centered from central MT into the NE panhandle/eastern CO continues to slowly translate through the region. A deepening upper trough and attendant jet streak will push through the northern plains late Sunday. At the surface, a seasonably strong cold front is forecast to move through Sunday afternoon. A much cooler, drier pattern will settle in following the passage of this front.