Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
325 AM EDT Sat Mar 14 2020 Rain and snow chances return late today and tonight with a low pressure trough. Dry weather returns Sunday under building high pressure. Dry weather is expected through early afternoon under high pressure. Rain chances are expected to increase this afternoon as moist advection and ascent increase with the approach of the trough. Warm ground temperatures should help limit snow accumulation for much of the area, though the higher elevation of WV, MD and the Laurel Highlands should see one to three inches of accumulation.
Upper trof over Arizona will move northeastward over the central/southern Rockies early tonight, then across the central Plains thru early Saturday. Surface temperatures are also expected to stay at or just above freezing early Saturday morning across the higher terrain of central Kansas. A brief period of light freezing rain is also possible, if temperatures can drop to freezing. Despite some ridging aloft moving over the area into Sunday, it looks like low level moisture and clouds will be slow to scour, if it all, so will keep things mainly dry but cloudy with temperatures remaining well below climo.
342 AM CDT Sat Mar 14 2020 A blocking pattern will persist over the eastern Pacific, maintaining an unsettled split flow pattern downstream over our area.
A strong frontal system is stretched across parts of Wyoming and Colorado with a strong high pressure system off to the northeast. The cold front will be coming through the region during the late afternoon and CAA will return to the region once again. Despite a high pressure ridge building into the region, the mid levels we remain unsettled enough to keep the cloudy conditions in place.
Meso models are catching on this trend with much warmer skew-t's and thus lower snow accumulations. Warmer temperatures can be expected across the southwest zones, closest to the clearing of the stratus upslope deck. On Sunday, the high temperature forecast is a bit tricky.
352 AM CDT Sat Mar 14 2020 High pressure to the east conts to pump in gulf moisture across the region this morning. A stalled cold front to our north extends from west Texas across into central Louisiana and eastward into the mid Atlantic states.
Did increase the low temperatures a touch in some of the valleys, as the rate of drop was a bit warmer than forecast. High pressure will build in across the Ohio and Tennessee valleys tonight, keeping our weather dry. These clouds, along with veering surface winds, will keep lows in check, despite very dry air in the low levels. Low clouds cleared out today as a cold front dropped well south of the region, and ridging began to build in from the west. Model data shows temps getting down near freezing Saturday night before precip winds down, especially over the northern end of the forecast area. Should anyone hit freezing, it would result in freezing rain.
Snow accumulation is expected mainly on grassy and elevated surfaces because it'll be a wet snow falling on above freezing surfaces. Generally, soundings depict a melting layer and then a refreezing layer above the surface. We will also see northeasterly winds gusting up to 25 mph today, making it feel about 10 degrees cooler than the temperature. Ridging will help keep us dry Sunday, with high temperatures in the 40s.
Severe thunderstorms and isolated tornadoes possible this Cold front has become nearly stationary south of a Big Lake. Mild temperatures are expected tonight as a warm front moves back north, with steady or slightly rising temperatures.
Weak lift and some lingering low-level moisture associated with low pressure to the east have been enough to produce some light snow flurries across northeastern Minnesota. A broad deck of higher clouds is riding along a broad 500-mb ridge, and these will continue to hang around this morning and into the early afternoon, though a general clearing trend is expected this afternoon with partly cloudy skies expected. High pressure will drift east over southern Canada going into Sunday, bringing southerly flow and warm air advection.
Temperatures trended slightly cooler by just a degree or 2 earlier than initially thought so made the adjustments to the rain/snow changeover earlier, thus bumping snowfall totals in some locations. The first area of concern is the possibility of freezing drizzle Sunday morning. At this time confidence is low in freezing drizzle chances, most of the forecast soundings keep this south of our area into far southern Nebraska, but there was not enough confidence to leave the mention of freezing drizzle out of our southern counties in the CWA, will need to continue to monitor this with future forecast.
With the potential for stronger lift focusing along the Highway 20 corridor after 09Z, will extend the advisory into the Sioux City area. Currently, a wealth of dry air in place with dew points in the lower 20s. Warmer air returns to the region on Sunday leading to weak isentropic lift.
Much drier air is in place in the low levels and surface than previously forecasted, and is evident by the 00Z OHX sounding as well as dewpoints around the area in the upper 20s to low 30s. Additional moisture will eventually saturate the low levels and allow for showers to move in from the west overnight, with likely pops for the western 2/3 of the mid state by mid morning. However, that will change during the rest of tonight and Saturday as moisture increases ahead of upper level trough approaching from the west. expect mainly IFR ceilings but the amount of showers should begin to decrease as a weak cold front pushes from northern Middle TN into the southern counties.
Longer trajectories over cooler water will support a higher threat of dense sea fog.
Large upper level ridge will establish itself over the Gulf of Mexico today through tonight and help to keep quiet conditions in place across the area. With the ridge in place overhead, temperatures will be well above average with many locations climbing into the upper 80s across the FL Panhandle. Slightly cooler temperatures can be expected across our GA/AL counties where temperatures will be in the low to mid 80s. No rain is expected today with the upper level ridge keeping much the precipitation chances well to our north.
337 AM CDT Sat Mar 14 2020 The upper level trough which was responsible for our showers and thunderstorms will continue to move northeast into the central Plains today away from the Panhandles. Skies will likely remain cloudy all day on Sunday as another short wave trough moves across the region. This upper level short wave trough will interact with plenty of low level moisture to bring an increasing chance of showers and thunderstorms to the area, especially Sunday afternoon.
With the low level wind profiles, there will be opportunity for rotating storms which could produce hail. Southwest flow aloft will develop late Saturday night into Sunday as the closed low currently staged to our west develops rapidly into an open wave overnight, and the next, more powerful closed low develops off the west coast.
318 AM EDT Sat Mar 14 2020 High pressure will build across the Commonwealth tonight and Saturday leading to diminishing winds and seasonable temperatures.
High pressure will build in across Ontario today. As the high builds east, northerly flow will keep things cloudy, limiting sunshine for most of the day. As you go south, temps should be progressively warmer, reaching the low 30s in the far southern parts of Menominee County. I lowered temps a little in the interior into the upper teens given the lower wind speeds and clearing skies. With high pressure well in control at the start of this forecast period, expect quiet weather conditions through the latter half of the weekend. Getting into the start of the upcoming "work" week, precip starts to move back into Upper Michigan as a cold front gets dragged through by a narrow low crossing the Hudson Bay.
Water vapor loop shows upper level ridge was located over western ND and will shift over the area over the night. An upper level ridge will move over the area overnight. An upper level ridge will begin to move east into the region through the overnight period. This will allow cooler air to persist in the region and cause overnight lows ranging from upper single digits to low teens. Cloud cover will increase through the day which will result in slightly cooler temperatures for areas west of the Red River Valley. For Sunday, an upper trough pushes into the northern Plains, bringing snow back into the region. Guidance remains uncertain regarding exact amounts; however, placement seems to be increasingly consistent, with the Highway 2 corridor expected to see the best chance for travel impacts.
Across the south where snow will have ended, freezing drizzle or light freezing rain is possible through the morning. Another chance of light freezing drizzle will occur tonight. The best chance for freezing drizzle or light freezing rain will be after midnight with little to no accumulations expected. However, with roadways still potentially snow covered and temperatures falling below freezing after sunset, slippery roads should be expected especially on untreated roadways. Weak mid-level ridging will help surface arctic high pressure to build across the northern and eastern Plains.
1031 PM CDT Fri Mar 13 2020 Things will remain quiet through the short term, with seasonable temperatures and dry weather as a ridge of high pressure drops in from the northwest then slowly slides east through the weekend.
312 AM EDT Sat Mar 14 2020 Rain and snow chances return late today and tonight with a low pressure trough. Dry weather returns Sunday under building high pressure. Dry weather is expected through early afternoon under high pressure. Rain chances are expected to increase this afternoon as moist advection and ascent increase with the approach of the trough. Warm ground temperatures should help limit snow accumulation for much of the area, though the higher elevation of WV, MD and the Laurel Highlands should see one to three inches of accumulation.
Precipitation will continue to taper off from southwest to northeast as an upper level trough crosses southwest Kansas early this Saturday morning. Some locations north and west of Garden City could even experience some patchy freezing fog.
1054 PM CDT Fri Mar 13 2020 (This evening through Saturday) A cold front over central Texas will stall this evening, then move slowly north as a warm front into tomorrow. Lots of moisture flowing northeast over the low-level cold air will bring widespread rain to the region tonight and tomorrow.
Upper trough over the S Rockies, with upper ridge centered over the Gulf of Mexico, with generally westerly upper flow over our forecast area (FA).
However, with the higher cloud bases and drier air near the surface, QPF will remain light as most of this precipitation is evaporating before it reaches the surface. Otherwise, expect overcast conditions to continue, which will help to keep temperatures in the low to mid 50s for most of the night. Strong ridging over the Gulf of Mexico will continue through the short term period as a cutoff low over the Baja Peninsula region lifts to an open wave and traverses the Southern Plains. The Gulf ridging will approach near-record heights at 500 mb, but due to the stalled boundary, the warmer temperatures will remain elusive this time around. High temperatures this weekend will remain above average, with highs Saturday as warm as the low 70s, and highs Sunday in the post-frontal airmass dipping only to the upper 50s to low 60s.
319 AM CDT Sat Mar 14 2020 Active upper pattern continues as a strong upper low works down the West Coast today and Sunday. Currently have SW flow aloft over the region as located between this approaching low and a ridge centered over the Gulf.
311 AM EDT Sat Mar 14 2020 A lobe of high pressure will move north of the region this evening before a reinforcing cold front, moving across the Great Lakes, allows another stronger high in from the northern Plains. The gradient between this high and low pressure developing over the southern Plains Saturday will force a baroclinic zone to develop east to west from the OK/KS border to the KY/TN border. Highs tomorrow will depend somewhat on how far north that warm front gets, but for now readings in the lower 40s are likely in our far northern zones.
322 AM EDT Sat Mar 14 2020 High pressure will gradually build into the forecast area today with gusty westerly winds expected.
As for Saturday, with the warm front lifting ever farther north into eastern OK to the Mid- Mississippi Valley, only limited rain chances are expected within our CWA. With ridging over the region, the best chances for this activity will remain across the northern part of the forecast area. Ridging will dampen some Saturday night into Sunday as another front drops into the region.
1043 PM MDT Fri Mar 13 2020 Light freezing drizzle has turned to all frozen pcpn in KGCC, so have removed from the wx grids. Decent wind shear aloft also aided in the formation of light freezing drizzle/freezing rain. so expect any freezing pcpn to turn over to all frozen pcpn by 03z across Campbell Co. The eastern portions of the central and southern Black Hills, esp the Custer State park to Hill City area will see up to 12 inches of snow, with 5 to 9 inches from the higher elevations of the foothills zones west seeing warning level snows.
High pressure continues to keep the weather quiet through the overnight hours. /issued 221 PM EDT Fri Mar 13 2020/ High pressure will remain over the Western Atlantic waters through early this weekend keeping a stationary front over the Southeastern United States.
A weak cold front pushing south from the Carolinas will become stationary across Georgia as a strong upper ridge builds over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Dry air in the low and mid levels will produce a rain-free day with some fair weather cumulus. Min temps in the low to mid 60s.
Widespread freezing fog and drizzle persisted along the South Laramie Range east along the Cheyenne Ridge. Extended the Freezing Fog Advisory until Noon MDT today.
/Issued 337 AM CDT Sat Mar 14 2020/ The upper level trough which was responsible for our showers and thunderstorms will continue to move northeast into the central Plains today away from the Panhandles. Skies will likely remain cloudy all day on Sunday as another short wave trough moves across the region. This upper level short wave trough will interact with plenty of low level moisture to bring an increasing chance of showers and thunderstorms to the area, especially Sunday afternoon.
TD Chattanooga Airport, TN 68 54 64 49 63 / 50 70 60 20 40 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 55 46 58 45 63 / 50 80 50 20 30 Oak Ridge, TN 54 45 58 45 62 / 60 80 50 20 30 Tri Cities Airport, TN 53 42 55 42 59 / 60 80 50 20 20.
/issued 319 AM CDT Sat Mar 14 2020/ Active upper pattern continues as a strong upper low works down the West Coast today and Sunday. Currently have SW flow aloft over the region as located between this approaching low and a ridge centered over the Gulf.
To this point have seen some accumulation on roadways in those pockets of heavier snow, but otherwise the recent warm period appears to be having a positive impact on ability for the lighter snow to accumulate on the warmer pavement.
Warm temps and steep lapse rates will contribute to SB instability across the Lower Trans Pecos and Big Bend area today. /issued 319 AM CDT Sat Mar 14 2020/ Active upper pattern continues as a strong upper low works down the West Coast today and Sunday. Currently have SW flow aloft over the region as located between this approaching low and a ridge centered over the Gulf.
The arctic front continues to roar across much of western Montana this morning, with some of the higher gusts reaching into the 50-70 mph range during the lifespan of this storm so far.
/issued 223 AM EDT Sat Mar 14 2020/ High pressure surface and aloft will hold across the Gulf of Mexico and Florida through Sunday. The southern extent of the trough will suppress the U/L ridge currently over the forecast area just south of Florida by mid week. Downstream, this will aid in pumping up the ridge back over the Gulf of Mexico and Florida peninsula. High pressure will hold over the waters through the period with benign conditions expected each day.
A low pressure system will move southward, just off the coast of the Pacific Northwest today. Ahead of this approaching low pressure system, strong, gusty southerly winds are expected this afternoon into tonight in most of the San Joaquin Valley, in the West Side Hills, and in the Southern Sierra Nevada foothills of Mariposa, Madera, and Fresno Counties.
Lapse rates will be steep with quick, pronounced cooling as one rises from valleys to ridges.
Temperatures this afternoon and on Sunday will once again climb into the low to mid 80s with overnight lows in the upper 60s to low 70s.
Rain chances will steadily increase from north to south overnight, as another cold front begins sinking south into the region by sunrise Sunday morning.
Upper ridging will keep temperatures just below normal today even with clouds and precip around. Slightly warmer highs are possible on Sunday.
/issued 352 AM CDT Sat Mar 14 2020/ High pressure to the east conts to pump in gulf moisture across the region this morning. A stalled cold front to our north extends from west Texas across into central Louisiana and eastward into the mid Atlantic states.
Upper trough/low that moved across the region will give way to a building 500/700 mb ridge from the west that is expected to transition over the area for the entire short term period. Have adjusted the inherited Warning/Advisory as a result to now focus on potential for freezing drizzle east and north, canceling for NE Colorado, and western/southern Kansas zones.
As the trough axis continues to progress northeast this morning, activity will diminish from west to east. Some of this precipitation may fall as an inch or two of snow in the high elevations (generally above 8K feet). A low pressure system continues to slowly slide south along the coast of northern California.
622 AM CDT Sat Mar 14 2020 The closed low off the California coast yesterday at this time has openend up and shifted eastward into the high plains early this morning. A low level jet at 850 mb was also in place from the south-southwest which was pumping in some moisture in the lower levels above the surface. This moisture was overrunning cooler and drier air at the surface and so the precipitation over the area has been light initially. 6 inches will be possible with the higher amounts southeast of I44. The cooler air mass at the surface will remain in place with an east to northeast surface wind and with clouds and rain all day, the temperatures will be quite chilly with readings from the upper 30s in central MO to the low 50s in the southwest corner of MO.
311 AM MDT Sat Mar 14 2020 Radar imagery and area wind observations suggest that this late- season snow storm has begun across northeast Montana, but the onset of snowfall may have been delayed a few hours while the lower levels of the atmosphere have taken a while to completely saturate. As of early today, the lower reflectivity values forming a large open hole in the radar imagery over Glasgow have nearly filled in. Beginning on Sunday, the upper level low pressure center completely separates from the Canadian low pressure trough.
The precipitation will continue through the morning and then begin to end from northwest to southeast during the afternoon and evening as the trough quickly moves east across the area. Then dry weather is expected overnight tonight into Sunday as an upper ridge builds in behind the trough. Lows tonight will drop back to around freezing under cloudy skies.
415 AM CDT Sat Mar 14 2020 An upper level height ridge (592-594dm at 500mb) will remain centered over the Gulf of Mexico through the upcoming week. An associated surface cold front will pass through the Midsouth this evening and early overnight, slowing as it becomes nearly parallel to the midlevel flow. Periods of showers may be punctuated with booming thunder trapped in the low level thermal inversion this evening.
/issued 415 AM CDT Sat Mar 14 2020/ An upper level height ridge (592-594dm at 500mb) will remain centered over the Gulf of Mexico through the upcoming week. An associated surface cold front will pass through the Midsouth this evening and early overnight, slowing as it becomes nearly parallel to the midlevel flow. Periods of showers may be punctuated with booming thunder trapped in the low level thermal inversion this evening.
905 AM EDT Sat Mar 14 2020 Dry/stable conditions (via 12Z Raob data) courtesy of high pressure surface and aloft over the region will support another dry and very warm day across the entire forecast area with ample sunshine and temperatures again climbing into the lower 80s along the coast, and mid to upper 80s inland. Tranquil boating conditions under high pressure will continue across the Gulf waters the remainder of today with light winds, slight seas, and an onshore sea breeze component developing along the coast during the afternoon.
Aloft, fairly stout high pressure ridging remains situated over the GOMEX with stable influence across the FL peninsula. Min temps in the low to mid 60s. High pressure (east-west) ridging just north of the local waters with fairly weak pressure gradient.
1031 AM EDT Sat Mar 14 2020 Rain and snow chances return late today and tonight with a low pressure trough. Dry weather returns Sunday under building high pressure. A Winter Weather Advisory for at least a couple of the ridge zones remains a possibility. Dry weather is expected through early afternoon under high pressure. Rain chances are expected to increase from the southwest towards the northeast this afternoon/early evening as moist advection and ascent increase with the approach of the trough. Warm ground temperatures should help limit snow accumulation for much of the area, though the higher elevation of WV, MD and the Laurel Highlands should see one to three inches of accumulation.
710 AM EDT Sat Mar 14 2020 Rain and snow chances return late today and tonight with a low pressure trough. Dry weather returns Sunday under building high pressure. Dry weather is expected through early afternoon under high pressure. Rain chances are expected to increase from the southwest towards the northeast this afternoon/early evening as moist advection and ascent increase with the approach of the trough. Warm ground temperatures should help limit snow accumulation for much of the area, though the higher elevation of WV, MD and the Laurel Highlands should see one to three inches of accumulation.
A large, deep upper low has already started to make its way down the PacNW coast.
Cold front that move through overnight stalled between Mountain Home and Twin Falls.
Deep layer ridging will continue through the night, with the stationary boundary and associated rain remaining north of the region.
342 PM CDT Sat Mar 14 2020 There has been some patchy light freezing drizzle across the area this afternoon and have kept the Winter Weather Advisory in place. Sounding profiles are not overly impressive for freezing drizzle tonight, with the mid-levels only modestly dry and lift weak.
253 PM MDT Sat Mar 14 2020 Plenty of low and mid clouds remain today under southwest flow as one system exits onto the Plains and another larger low pressure system spins off the Pacific Northwest coast. Some isolated showers have popped up over the high terrain this afternoon due to lingering instability but due to drier low levels, do not anticipate much in the way of precipitation accumulation with light showers over the mountains and sprinkles over the lower valley locations. The broken cloud cover is causing temperatures to be a bit cooler than yesterday but it does look like highs will be close to normal.