Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
422 AM MST Wed Nov 24 2021 09z surface analysis had low over central MN with initial cold front into CO. Secondary cold front noted from low to the WY/MT border, sinking southward with 3-5mb/3hr pressure rises behind it. Water vapour loop depicted upper trough from central Canada to UT. Today, upper trough zips eastward pushing secondary cold front through the CWA this morning. Tonight, weak high pressure settles in with clearing skies and seasonally chilly lows.
By noon most precipitation across the area will have ended as upstream ridging begins to influence western Montana and push drier air our direction. Will definitely be cooler as temperatures will stay in the 30s most areas. Next weather story becomes the wind as the approaching ridge supports tightening pressure gradients along the foothills with leeside troughing forming.
Warmer again by this weekend as high pressure builds back in from the west. A band of mainly light showers associated with the main trough passage continues to spread slowly eastward across the area.
500 AM CST Wed Nov 24 2021 Updated aviation section for 12z taf issuance Increasing high cloudiness today will herald the arrival of a strong cold front early Thursday morning. Mixing down of these winds aloft will be fair to poor due to the low sun angle this time of year, as well as the increase in clouds. Rain will overspread southeast Missouri around midnight tonight, and then much of the lower Ohio Valley after midnight. There will likely be some convective elements within the rain band, which will be focused along the low-level jet. The back edge of the rain will quickly follow the cold front eastward across the lower Ohio Valley on Thanksgiving.
Temperatures are much warmer(15 to 25 degrees) than 24 hours ago. For tonight, a cold front will move south across the area, entering the Big Country late this evening and being south of our area by 12Z Thursday.
530 AM EST Wed Nov 24 2021 Aviation - Becoming fairly windy later today - Southerly winds will gradually ramp up today as a result of a strengthening pressure gradient between the high pressure ridge over the southeastern CONUS and the low pressure system over the upper midwest. A consensus of latest high res short term guidance suggests the highest gusts will occur from near KMKG northward along the coast where some gusts to around 40 mph are possible. - Rain to light lake effect snow showers for Thanksgiving - The approaching cold front will bring rain showers late Wednesday night through midday Thursday.
The actual cold front, per obs and 3 hr pressure change data, was still located up in Wyoming. Temps tonight will cool down to around 20F across the plains, with 10s in the valleys and single digits in the higher elevations. The upper low pressure trough will push east of CO for Thanksgiving, providing for mostly sunny skies and dry conditions. Temperatures are forecast to be seasonal, with highs in the 40s for the high valleys and upper 40s to mid 50s for the plains.
726 AM EST Wed Nov 24 2021 Today and most of Thanksgiving Day will be dry with increasing temperatures as high pressure over the region moves offshore and light winds turn to southerly. A cold front will bring some rain showers into western PA Thursday afternoon and evening, with showers overspreading the rest of PA Thursday night.
A much cooler airmass behind a departing weather system will reside across the area today High pressure will follow for the latter portion of the week, bringing dry and stable conditions.
639 AM EST Wed Nov 24 2021 Southerly flow will support a seasonable warm day, but a cold front with rain can be expected on Thanksgiving. Broad high pressure in advance of a Rocky Mtn-to-Plains trough will maintain dry weather today, but increasing sly flow/warm advection on the van of that system will support a temperature recovery to near the seasonal averages. The cold front associated with that low is progged for evening passage across the Upr OH, with spreading across the region as it advance across the midwest on Thursday.
532 AM CST Wed Nov 24 2021 Current observations show the cold front has pushed through all of north central Nebraska. Behind this front, cooler air is pushing into the central Plains. The coolest temperatures will be across the Pine Ridge region where cool 850 mb temperatures (-1C to -5C) will have the greatest impact on surface temperatures. Besides this nuisance light snow/flurries, the quiet weather pattern will continue through Thursday as upper level ridging builds back across the western US.
723 AM EST Wed Nov 24 2021 Southerly flow will support a seasonable warm day, but a cold front with rain can be expected on Thanksgiving. That disturbance is embedded/crossing the northern periphery of the broad high pres ridge sliding across the ern CONUS in advance of a Rocky Mtn-to-Plains trough. The cold front associated with that low is progged for evening passage across the Upr OH, with spreading across the region as it advance across the midwest on Thursday.
In addition, upper ridging will remain in place through much of today before sliding east later this afternoon into this evening. Along with this, a cold front will approach from the northwest. /28/ On Thursday, a midlevel trough will make its way into the Lower Mississippi River Valley, which will offer some relief to the mostly dry conditions we have been experiencing. A line of non-severe storms accompanied with a cold front will make its way through our region early Thursday morning and propagate SE throughout the day into the evening.
235 AM MST Wed Nov 24 2021 09z surface analysis had low over central MN with initial cold front into CO. Secondary cold front noted from low to the WY/MT border, sinking southward with 3-5mb/3hr pressure rises behind it. Water vapour loop depicted upper trough from central Canada to UT. Today, upper trough zips eastward pushing secondary cold front through the CWA this morning. Tonight, weak high pressure settles in with clearing skies and seasonally chilly lows.
558 AM CST Wed Nov 24 2021 Updated for 12Z aviation discussion 12Z TAF discussion: VFR conditions will prevail today ahead of tomorrow's cold front and rain. In addition, upper ridging will remain in place through much of today before sliding east later this afternoon into this evening. Along with this, a cold front will approach from the northwest. /28/ On Thursday, a midlevel trough will make its way into the Lower Mississippi River Valley, which will offer some relief to the mostly dry conditions we have been experiencing. A line of non-severe storms accompanied with a cold front will make its way through our region early Thursday morning and propagate SE throughout the day into the evening.
Thursday morning some lingering breezy conditions are possible over the Sierra, in particular wind prone ridges and drainage gaps. Ensemble guidance is in very good agreement high pressure is expected to continue to build into the weekend over northern California.
337 AM CST Wed Nov 24 2021 Current observations show the cold front has pushed through all of north central Nebraska. Behind this front, cooler air is pushing into the central Plains. The coolest temperatures will be across the Pine Ridge region where cool 850 mb temperatures (-1C to -5C) will have the greatest impact on surface temperatures. Besides this nuisance light snow/flurries, the quiet weather pattern will continue through Thursday as upper level ridging builds back across the western US.
A trough of low pressure is continuing to move east across Arizona as it weakens. The western part of the low moving across the western states will drop southward along the Colorado River and become cut off by Thursday morning over the northern Sea of Cortez.
Models are still showing the cold front coming into the Oklahoma Panhandle this morning and be halfway through the Panhandles around Noon. Breezy north northeast winds are expected to follow in behind the frontal passage, along with cooler temperatures. Temperatures tonight will drop to near or below freezing with areas across the north dipping into the 20s by tomorrow morning.
547 AM EST Wed Nov 24 2021 Today and most of Thanksgiving Day will be dry with increasing temperatures as high pressure over the region moves offshore and light winds turn to southerly. A cold front will bring some rain showers into western PA Thursday afternoon and evening, with showers overspreading the rest of PA Thursday night.
246 AM PST Wed Nov 24 2021 High pressure will control our weather over the next several days. Thereafter look for light winds, reduced humidity, and warmer temperatures. Today through Thursday: An amplifying mid-upper ridge will extend from 30N/130W into the central Great Basin by Thursday. Strong (~1040+ mb) high pressure should subsequently expand from the northern/central Rockies into the Great Basin and Four Corners regions. Our area will remain firmly under the influence of deep ridging with dry and subsident conditions. As high pressure gains a stronger footing across the area look for mostly sunny skies with lighter winds as the pressure gradient relaxes later today. Tranquil conditions are expected for Thanksgiving with mostly sunny skies and slightly warmer temperatures.
and Thursday Breezy conditions will continue today as a cold front approaches the region from the west. A slug of dry air and surface ridging will end the lake effect across north-central Wisconsin during the day on Thursday as moisture gets stripped from the column. Snowfall amounts could range from 1 to 3 inches across Vilas County during this period, with the highest amounts in the extreme northern portion of the county. Highs today are expected to range from the lower to middle 40s across the north, to around 50 across central and east-central Wisconsin. Lows tonight are expected to range from around 20 across the north, to the lower 30s across east-central Wisconsin.
636 AM EST Wed Nov 24 2021 High pressure building into the region will result in a sunny but somewhat chilly day across the region. This high pressure moves offshore with a cold frontal passage Thursday night bringing our next chance of rain and snow showers. A sunny but somewhat chilly day under high pressure. Although we have a cold start this morning plenty of sunshine and weak southerly/southwesterly flow should get most locations into the lower 40's for highs today. High clouds slowly increase tonight and Thursday ahead of an approaching cold front. Rain showers are likely for most of the region Thursday night as a strong cold front approaches the region. Overnight lows will be around freezing.
542 AM CST Wed Nov 24 2021 (Today) Another windy day is on tap for eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas today in advance of a cold front that is set to move through the area tonight.
625 AM EST Wed Nov 24 2021 High pressure will remain over the area through tonight. The high will shift south on Thursday as a cold front approaches from the west.
These showers will diminish through late morning as a ridge of high pressure begins to build over the region through Thursday. Some moisture will be streaming through the apex of the ridge, so we won't be looking at a clear and sunny Thanksgiving Day.
Dry high pressure with clear skies were found across the entire area this morning. VFR thru period under dry high pressure.
343 AM CST Wed Nov 24 2021 Another day of warm temperatures out ahead of a surface cold front that will push south through the Texas Panhandle this afternoon arriving in our northern zones by late this afternoon and eventually reaching the I20 corridor by midnight. Model guidance the past few days has been steadily trending drier as the positively tilted upper level trough pushes east and south over the next 24 hours. Tonights overnight lows will mostly be in the low to mid 30s on the Caprock and upper 30 to low 40s to the east across the Rolling Plains with breezy northerly winds persisting behind the front overnight into tomorrow. A cold front will be well south of the FA by sunrise tomorrow morning.
1136 AM EST Wed Nov 24 2021 Southerly flow will support a dry and seasonable afternoon, but a cold front with rain can be expected on Thanksgiving. The filtered insolation is in response to increasing upper moisture flowing from Plains trough into the broad ern CONUS ridge. That ridge will maintain dry weather through tonight, with warm advection supporting a temperature recovery to near the seasonal averages. The cold front associated with that low is progged for evening passage across the Upr OH, with rain spreading across the region as it advance across the midwest on Thursday.
1017 AM EST Wed Nov 24 2021 High pressure continuing over the local area, as winds veer NE across the area late this morning through the afternoon.
1129 AM CST Wed Nov 24 2021 Strong low level jet along with tight pressure gradient in advance of a cold front continue to induce strong and gusty south winds this morning, with consistent gusts over 40 an several Mesonet sites and also noted in the high terrain of SE OK and western AR.
Highs are on track to reach in the upper 60s to near 70 degrees over southeast MS and portions of southwest AL, with slightly cooler readings in the lower to mid 60s over the rest of the region which will be more under the influence of the low level ridge axis.
1058 AM EST Wed Nov 24 2021 Today and most of Thanksgiving Day will be dry with increasing temperatures as high pressure over the region moves offshore and light winds turn to southerly. A cold front will bring some rain showers into western PA Thursday afternoon and evening, with showers overspreading the rest of PA Thursday night.
(Tonight) Gusty southerly winds will continue ahead of the cold front which will move into NE OK by late afternoon and continue steadily eastward clearing northwest AR before sunrise Thursday. Guidance remains consistent with a band of showers and storms developing this evening along and immediately behind the advancing cold front and expanding in coverage through the the late evening into early morning hours.
1110 AM CST Wed Nov 24 2021 VFR conditions continue to dominate the stations, due to high pressure.
332 PM EST Wed Nov 24 2021 Cold and dry Canadian high pressure will hold temperatures below normal through Thursday.
247 PM CST Wed Nov 24 2021 After a warm start to the morning, temperatures continue to fall this afternoon as a cold front passes through the Upper Midwest. Temperatures will take on a warming trend towards more seasonable values through the weekend, as the lower heights and cold air aloft moves eastwards over the Great Lakes.
Winds have already shifted to out of the north behind a cold front at KDHT and KGUY. Southwest winds will turn to the northeast today at all three sites as a cold front passes through. The higher wind speeds will be more at DHT/GUY than AMA. Models are still showing the cold front coming into the Oklahoma Panhandle this morning and be halfway through the Panhandles around Noon. Breezy north northeast winds are expected to follow in behind the frontal passage, along with cooler temperatures. Temperatures tonight will drop to near or below freezing with areas across the north dipping into the 20s by tomorrow morning.
High pressure centered along the Carolina coast has maintained a tightened gradient across the island chain and coastal waters today. The aforementioned high pressure will be slowly pushed to the southeast by an approaching upper level trough. This moisture will be confined to the lower levels by the inversion, so it is possible that a few showers may be able to capitalize on it and form.
Tonight and Thursday A cold front attendant to a strong upper level trough will push across the area this evening, followed by the upper trough early on Thanksgiving Day.
High pressure will persist through Thursday night, before a low pressure in the gulf of Alaska moves SE, flattens the ridge, and makes way for a decaying front to come ashore in SW Oregon. In the mean time, east flow will bring drying over the ridges and inversions with fog to west side valleys. As the high pressure builds, it will take care of that though and less of it will enter the bubble. With a thermal trough deepening on the coast, southeast winds will develop in the Rogue valley, possibly scouring out the low level moisture and decreasing the chance of fog development Thursday morning.
A cold front moves through the area during the night and should be nearly through the area around sunrise Wednesday. High temperatures for today will be noticeably cooler as overcast skies will linger throughout the day; high temperatures in the mid 40s to mid 50s are forecasted. However the stronger winds should help keep the temperatures on the warmer.
229 PM CST Wed Nov 24 2021 (Issued 230 PM CST Wed Nov 24 2021) Tonight through Thursday night: Tonight the low in northern Wisconsin will continue to track east with the trailing cold expected to push through the region this evening. Thursday winds may also get breezy again as the pressure gradient increase as a strong high pushes in from the west with the low over the Great Lakes. This high will weaken quickly but will bring some breezy winds for a period Thursday into Thursday evening.
Temperatures have already risen into the lower to mid 50s. Lows tonight will be cooler in our eastern valleys tonight where decoupling of the boundary layer may temporarily occur. Lows will be in the middle 30s east to the lower 40s west. A narrow theta-E/moisture ridge will aid showers along the front which will make steady progress through Thanksgiving Day.
203 PM CST Wed Nov 24 2021 Key Points: * Cold front moving through the region this afternoon will be the trigger for sprinkles/light rain late this afternoon/evening.
300 PM CST Wed Nov 24 2021 Light rain will develop and blossom this evening in the vicinity of a cold front. Conditions will turn colder but remain blustery into Thursday as a modified Canadian air mass filters into the region behind the departing cold front. Light rain will develop as early as 00z/6pm this evening west of the Illinois River Valley ahead of the cold front and within a wing of warm advection. 40", with the higher amounts coming east of Interstate 55 overnight.
141 PM CST Wed Nov 24 2021 A cold front completes its sweep across the region this evening with polar air streaming in overnight and setting the stage for a relatively chilly Thanksgiving day. As of 2pm, a well-advertised cold front was knocking on La Crosse's doorstep and should complete its passage through the Upper Mississippi River Valley by early this evening. Thus, have not deviated too far from the NBM deterministic wind speeds for tonight with a leaning towards the HRRR to capture the higher wind gusts. Low-level moisture wrapping around the lower tropospheric low may experience enough synoptic lift ahead of the H500-300 trough to generate light flurries during the overnight hours. With the thermal trough over the region during this timeframe, highs will struggle to reach the mid 20s west to low 30s east.
UPDATE Updated aviation section for 12z taf issuance Increasing high cloudiness today will herald the arrival of a strong cold front early Thursday morning. Mixing down of these winds aloft will be fair to poor due to the low sun angle this time of year, as well as the increase in clouds. Rain will overspread southeast Missouri around midnight tonight, and then much of the lower Ohio Valley after midnight. There will likely be some convective elements within the rain band, which will be focused along the low-level jet. The back edge of the rain will quickly follow the cold front eastward across the lower Ohio Valley on Thanksgiving.
Winds will gradually decrease into the afternoon as surface ridging builds in. Beyond Thanksgiving, the western US ridge will re-amplify, with northwest midlevel flow remaining across the forecast area.
Any falling snow should continue to diminish over the next couple to few hours as high pressure nudges into the region. In addition, breezy northwest winds up to 30 mph will continue to decrease through the later afternoon hours and become relatively calm tonight as aforementioned high pressure centers over the forecast area. A warm frontal boundary will encroach on the region late tonight/Thursday morning and gradually drift through the region Thursday through Thursday night. This will result in warmer temperatures on Thanksgiving in southwestern North Dakota with highs reaching the 40s, while cooler temperatures will remain further east with highs in the mid to upper 20s. The trade-off is that warmer areas will see breezier winds and cloudier skies.
1015 AM MST Wed Nov 24 2021 09z surface analysis had low over central MN with initial cold front into CO. Secondary cold front noted from low to the WY/MT border, sinking southward with 3-5mb/3hr pressure rises behind it. Water vapour loop depicted upper trough from central Canada to UT. Today, upper trough zips eastward pushing secondary cold front through the CWA this morning. Tonight, weak high pressure settles in with clearing skies and seasonally chilly lows.
If we can get more clearing up near the border some areas could hit the low negative teens. NW flow aloft and northerly flow at the surface provides these cool temperatures; however, the flow through 850mb veers to the WSW tomorrow as a ridge out west slowly moves eastward. WSW flow under the ridge brings WAA into ND tomorrow afternoon, bringing temperatures into the upper teens in MN and lower 20s for eastern ND.
(This evening through Thursday) A cold front will push into the area late tonight, and may result in some scattered showers across our southeast counties. A 1035mb high pressure center will push a cooler Canadian airmass into west Texas for Turkey Day, which should result in high temperatures in the mid to upper 50s. The aforementioned breezy conditions will continue through at least early afternoon, which will make the air feel a bit cooler than the actual temperature.
Upper trough is exiting to the east with strong ridging building in upstream. Only concern is for patchy freezing fog developing tonight under mostly clear skies.
Precipitation chances begin to increase Thanksgiving afternoon and into the evening due to an approaching cold front. Discussion: The short term period begins with an upper level ridge axis transitioning across the Appalachian region, with a deepening trough upstream over the Great Plains and approaching the Midwest. With the presence of the cloud coverage tonight, overnight lows will be a few degrees warmer relative to previous days amidst the warm air advection brought on by south/southwesterly flow today. Heading into Thanksgiving, the southerly flow at the surface will continue to prevail ahead of the cold front, along with increasing sky coverage as model guidance shows some weak divergence aloft.
258 PM CST Wed Nov 24 2021 Cloud cover is moving in from west to east this afternoon ahead of an approaching cold front. Post-FROPA, a much cooler and drier airmass begins setting in tomorrow evening.
249 PM CST Wed Nov 24 2021 Aside from some cirrus to our south, latest satellite imagery shows a fairly narrow stratus deck sliding southeastward over the region in tandem with a sfc cold front. While overall moisture remains largely limited at this time, should see an uptick in the low to mid levels develop by late afternoon/evening. Otherwise, expect afternoon highs to largely remain at or just below freezing, with locations along and west of the James River approaching the upper 30s under southwesterly flow.
243 PM EST Wed Nov 24 2021 High pressure will shift south of the area tonight.
349 PM EST Wed Nov 24 2021 Dry weather will continue this evening as high pressure tracks to the East Coast. Widespread rain is forecast for Thanksgiving Day along a cold front traveling from the west.
Active Northwest Flow Sun-Wed With Weak Systems Confidence through Thursday Night: High Well advertised cold front entering northwest Iowa this morning with the main push of cold air behind a secondary boundary from southwest MN to the western Dakotas this morning at 13z.