Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Winds will be out of the west becoming more northwest tonight as another cold front dips south. There will be a set back on Wednesday as another arctic cold front plunges south across the central portions of the country.
This would shunt thunderstorms further into Southeast KS with probabilities slowly diminishing in west-east manner as the mid-level cyclone continues its slow trek east along/just north of the MO/AR border tonight. July 4th-Thu Night: Strong mid-upper ridging is still scheduled to build slowly east across the Rockies. The CNU terminal would have the higher likelihood of being affected. This may keep storm potential mainly over the high Plains Tuesday evening.
313 AM CDT Tue Jul 4 2017 A weak cold front is sinking slowly southward through central Illinois early this morning. Drier air is trickling southward behind the boundary, as dewpoints across northern Illinois have dropped into the lower to middle 50s. 00z July 4 models are all trending further south with the track of the upper low currently spinning over Oklahoma/Kansas.
Expect redevelopment starting near the ridges around midday. Have expanded PoPs slightly to account for this, with LBE and ZZV now having slight chance values, reserving higher values for the ridges. Activity should decrease after sunset tonight with the loss of heating, with perhaps a few showers hanging on to the ridges.
226 AM MDT Tue Jul 4 2017 Water vapor shows short wave trof tracking east of the nrn Rockies with ongoing isolated convection east of Billings. Associated sfc trof moving into ern MT/ern WY. Short wave trof will cross the nrn plains today, with MLCAPE values around 1000J/KG along the sfc trof as is tracks across the cwfa. Atmosphere should remain fairly capped, so most convective activity should be confined to higher elevations of the Blkhls and along the sfc trof. Upper ridge quickly reamplifies through the nrn Rockies into the nrn plains on Wednesday with thermal profiles still showing temps around 100F, especially east of the Blkhls.
211 AM EDT Tue Jul 4 2017 A trough of low pressure remains near the coast tonight.
Acrs the far southeast plains, where the lower levels are more moist, there could be a better chance for one or two severe storms with hail an inch or larger in diameter and wind gusts around 60 mph. On Tue the upper ridge will build back over the area. During the overnight hours, an upper-level ridge will continue to build over the region, clearing the skies and bringing in drier air.
315 AM EDT Tue Jul 4 2017 Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb ridge in the wrn U. with a trough over the central plains this morning. Dewpoints will increase into the lower to middle 60s and with highs climbing to around 80/lowers 80s there should be enough instability to warrant isolated to low chance pop just about anywhere across the U.
425 AM CDT Tue Jul 4 2017 Early morning sfc analysis shows high pressure centered off the east coast of Florida providing for our typical srly low-level flow this morning. With that said, forecast soundings indicate enough dry air and capping thanks to the ridging aloft to preclude convective development across our region today. Remainder of the forecast looks similar to previous issuances with small POPs continuing through the mid-week time frame as a trof digs through the Plains states, eventually expanding to the East Coast.
Breezes will rise considerably after sunrise, reaching 15 knots sustained with gusts in the lower 20s through the day. Strong high pressure remains in control across the Gulf, supporting moderate to breezy south southeast winds. Mid-level ridging across the southern tier CONUS will continue to dominate the pattern. For Independence Day, a short- wave trough aloft moving through the Red River valley will induce a very modest weakness in the pattern locally, but 1000-500mb thicknesses and H85 temps remain essentially unchanged.
206 AM EDT Tue Jul 4 2017 Dry high pressure will pass across the region, keeping things quiet through Wednesday night with comfortable low humidity and seasonable temperatures.
Upper ridge is over NorCal providing clear skies to the interior.
319 AM MDT Tue Jul 4 2017 Heights aloft will rise significantly today as ridging builds over the four corners region. The ridge axis will remain just to our west through the period. Underneath the building ridge, subsidence and warming will occur which will make convective coverage hard to come by today and Wednesday. A few showers and high based storms may try to form today but mainly over the higher terrain with little if any measurable precipitation. Highs near 100 degrees expected over a few of the lower elevations of SE WY and western NE by Wednesday afternoon with temps well into the 90s elsewhere outside of the mountains.
200 AM EDT Tue Jul 4 2017 Typical summer pattern will persist this week with Bermuda high pressure extending from the Western Atlantic into the Gulf of Mexico and a lee-side trough in the forecast area. A broad upper trough will continue over the eastern CONUS with an upper ridge over the western states.
225 AM CDT Tue Jul 4 2017 Upper ridging over MB shifts into wrn Ontario today as main wave moves across srn Canada. Will see some cooler temps Thu aftn as lows drop into the lower 80s after the hot mid- week period.
237 AM CDT Tue Jul 4 2017 Upper ridging over MB shifts into wrn Ontario today as main wave moves across srn Canada. Will see some cooler temps Thu aftn as lows drop into the lower 80s after the hot mid- week period.
348 AM MDT Tue Jul 4 2017 Strong upper level ridge will begin to build toward the state today, and as expected in this regime Q-G fields show weak subsidence. Isolated storms are likely to diminish a little faster this evening with the weakly subsident and warmer airmass aloft.
More clouds should keep min temps a few degrees warmer than previous fcst. Max temps will range from the upper 70s in the Northern Alleghenies to mid 80s in the Lower Susquehanna Valley.
66 inch PW Value/25 C dew pt depression at 700 mb per 00z DTX Sounding) in place, as a large area of high pressure encompasses the entire Great Lakes Region.
346 AM EDT Tue Jul 4 2017 A cold front south of Long Island early this morning moves farther south this morning. High pressure builds over the northeast through tonight, then shifts off the New England coast Wednesday and Wednesday night.
342 AM EDT Tue Jul 4 2017 High pressure moving into the region will keep a dry airmass across the region through Wednesday.
As high pressure builds south from Canada will see temperatures reading a little cooler today, especially across the northern zones. The western US upper ridge rebounds into Montana tonight. This will bring warmer air back into the region for Wednesday with high temperature expected to reach near 100 in some areas. Synoptic Setup: Wednesday night begins with a large area of hot high pressure covering the western half of the CONUS. Ridge spurs jut out from here over South Dakota and into the Upper Mississippi Valley and up into British Columbia and Yukon Territory through the Rockies. A large closed low lies off the coast of British Columbia and into the Gulf of Alaska.
145 AM EDT Tue Jul 4 2017 High pressure will remain centered over the western Atlantic while a broad upper level trough persists over the eastern part of the nation for the better part of this week. A weak cold front will linger over the region through midweek, helping to focus the development of showers and thunderstorms. An upper level disturbance later in the week will initiate pattern change, leading to drier and somewhat cooler conditions late in the weekend.
but isolated showers may extend as far south as the Highway 59 corridor before the boundary (and associated forcing along it) washes out later this morning. The remainder of the work week and upcoming weekend will bear a similar resemblance to Wednesday as Southeast Texas remains on the southeast periphery of the upper ridge with highs in the upper 80s to mid 90s and early morning showers over the coastal waters shifting inland by the afternoon. Happy 4th of July! Huffman Low pressure over the southern plains and high pressure over the eastern Gulf has tightened the gradient overnight and helped to boost wind speeds. The gradient will weaken and winds will subside later this morning as the low moves east. Winds will increase again tonight as another weak area of low pressure scoots across the central plains.
A large upper level ridge centered over the four corners region of the inter-mountain western U. though we will mention a very slight chance of isolated thunderstorm in the late afternoon and early evening over the higher terrain near the Nevada border and in the higher mountains of central Idaho well to the east of McCall, Lowman, and Idaho City. The very warm upper level ridge will persist over the western U. Temperatures in our area will be 10 to 15 degrees above normal, with triple digit highs in the lower valleys. This moisture will be entrained into the ridge circulation, and some will eventually reach southeast Oregon and southwest Idaho, mainly at mid and high levels. So we are keeping a slight chance of daily afternoon and evening thunderstorms over the higher terrain.
441 AM MDT Tue Jul 4 2017 Water vapor shows short wave trof tracking east of the nrn Rockies with ongoing isolated convection east of Billings. Associated sfc trof moving into ern MT/ern WY. Short wave trof will cross the nrn plains today, with MLCAPE values around 1000J/KG along the sfc trof as is tracks across the cwfa. Atmosphere should remain fairly capped, so most convective activity should be confined to higher elevations of the Blkhls and along the sfc trof. Upper ridge quickly reamplifies through the nrn Rockies into the nrn plains on Wednesday with thermal profiles still showing temps around 100F, especially east of the Blkhls.
126 AM EDT Tue Jul 4 2017 A weak cold front slowly moves south of Long Island overnight. Weak high pressure builds over the northeast Tuesday into Tuesday night, then shifts off the New England coast Wednesday and Wednesday night.
And with this is the high probability of damaging winds and heavy rainfall, and will explicitly mention these possibilities in the zones tonight. The base of the upper trough across the Midwest is progged to continue to poke into Oklahoma Wednesday which could help support scattered thunderstorms.
308 AM CDT Tue Jul 4 2017 High pressure over southern Ontario/Great Lake/Upper Mississippi River Valley regions was providing mostly clear skies across the forecast area. Models show a weak mid-level trough moving southeast across the area today. Shower/thunderstorm chances continue through Wednesday into Wednesday evening as a weak/trough/cold front works into the area.
304 AM MDT Tue Jul 4 2017 A large ridge will start the day over the Great Basin with Utah and Colorado beneath the northwest flow ahead of the ridge line.
High temps on Wed will highly depend on convective coverage/timing and the precise location of the convectively modulated back-door cold front approaching from the N/NE. Lows Wed night in the lower 70s.
148 AM EDT Tue Jul 4 2017 Isolated showers and thunderstorms will gradually end during the pre-dawn hours as a weak cold front moves south of the area. High pressure will move east across the Great Lakes through Wednesday providing fair weather across our area.
542 AM CDT Tue Jul 4 2017 A weak cold front is sinking slowly southward through central Illinois early this morning. Drier air is trickling southward behind the boundary, as dewpoints across northern Illinois have dropped into the lower to middle 50s. 00z July 4 models are all trending further south with the track of the upper low currently spinning over Oklahoma/Kansas.
A weak upper low was also indicated over northeast Kansas helping to lift convection slowly north. Have kept PoPs on the low end for the area through Tuesday for mainly popup storms. Upper ridge over the western CONUS then begins to push into the plains region Tuesday night and Wednesday with rain chances diminishing.
Coupled with the position of the ridge axis favoring a slightly faster inland push to the ECSB across the south, the interior north will once again be favored for diurnal convection, mainly from this afternoon through an hour or two past sunset. A relatively light S/SE low level flow remains in place across the region as ridge axis persists near to just north of the Cape.
642 AM EDT Tue Jul 4 2017 Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb ridge in the wrn U. with a trough over the central plains this morning. Dewpoints will increase into the lower to middle 60s and with highs climbing to around 80/lowers 80s there should be enough instability to warrant isolated to low chance pop just about anywhere across the U.
259 AM EDT Tue Jul 4 2017 Dry high pressure will pass across the region, keeping things quiet through Wednesday with comfortable low humidity and seasonable temperatures.
335 AM CDT Tue Jul 4 2017 An upper ridge currently extends from the western Atlantic to the western Gulf of Mexico. Subsidence from high pressure aloft will suppress convection for the most part today. Temps will be about the same with highs in the low to mid 90s and heat index values in the low 100s.
Temperatures will remain above normal through this week as high pressure predominates across the Desert Southwest. A gradual increase in moisture will lead to isolated thunderstorm development over mainly the higher terrain of Arizona through midweek. The threat of thunderstorms will then expand westward into the lower deserts late this week and weekend. Thus not anticipating large areas of strong outflow affecting the lower deserts - just some weak outflow later tonight which won't have much of an effect.
Weak short wave energy topping the ridge has capitalized on available instability and weak frontal passage across south central Montana with scattered thunderstorms across the mountains and foothills.
High temperatures will be cooler up north with better cloud and precipitation coverage. As you move south expect temperatures to be a bit warmer. Should be quiet overnight with lows around 70 areawide, apart from the cooler temps across the higher terrain.
1116 PM MDT Mon Jul 3 2017 Weak forcing regime over the area as the region remains on the edge of an approaching western CONUS ridge. Convection today will be driven by elevated heat source regions able to break the cap over the west, with an old outflow/trough providing a focus for convection across scentral SD. Otherwise, hot conds will increase through mid week as the western CONUS ridge shifts east. Warm layer aloft will cap convection Wed, with the ridge retreating enough per NW flow impulses to support convection chances once again, Thur through Sat, along with âcoolerâ conds. With a broad upper ridge building over the Rockies and high plains mid week, conditions will become hot and dry.
/issued 251 PM CDT Mon Jul 3 2017/ The forecast continues to remain not so exciting as an upper high dominates to our west. Wednesday will be a few degrees cooler behind the front with highs in the low to mid 90s.
Precip chances will be a little more limited today as a building upper level ridge of high pressure across the Intermountain West begins to expand slowly eastward into the Western High Plains. However, regardless of a weak flow aloft, a few isolated thunderstorms will be possible late this afternoon into this evening as H5 vort maxima drop southeast across the Western High Plains ahead of the building ridge out west. ECMWF develops a large ridge across the intermountain west which persists through the end of the forecast period, which is not a conducive setup for widespread severe. South to southeasterly winds 5 to 15kt will persist through early Tuesday as a lee side trough of low pressure remains anchored near and along the Colorado border.
Have expanded PoPs slightly to account for this, with LBE and ZZV now having slight chance values, reserving higher values for the ridges. Activity should decrease after sunset tonight with the loss of heating, with perhaps a few showers hanging on to the ridges.
411 AM MDT Tue Jul 4 2017 With an upper level ridge of high pressure over the region, expect afternoon temperatures to generally range from the lower 90s to lower 100s over the next several days.
MET/MAV numbers also support the higher rain chances.
137 AM EDT Tue Jul 4 2017 A tranquil period of weather as high pressure will settle across the region. Lows will range from the upper 40s across the higher terrain to the upper 50s. Today, the 4th of July, will feature plenty of sunshine, light winds and comfortable humidity as high pressure at the surface moves across the region and heights aloft rise.
A deep layer mean anticyclone is analyzed from the western North Atlantic to the Gulf of Mexico, with the primary trade-wind belt from the Keys and Bahamas southward. Currently, air temperatures in most Keys island communities are in the lower 80s, with dewpoint temperatures in the mid to upper 70s. The weather pattern over the next several days will be slowly changing, and dominated by the deep layer mean anticyclone centered over the western North Atlantic. This system will intensify somewhat tonight and Wednesday, resulting in a sharper western ridge and increased gradient flow locally.
444 AM EDT Tue Jul 4 2017 A cold front south of Long Island early this morning moves farther south this morning. High pressure builds over the northeast through tonight, then shifts off the New England coast Wednesday and Wednesday night.
140 AM EDT Tue Jul 4 2017 A weak cold front bisecting northern Ohio will continue south of the area this evening. High pressure will build in from the north Tuesday and Tuesday night.
328 AM CDT Tue Jul 4 2017 Progressive upper level trough continues to move across the area this morning with several embedded impulses producing very small areas of convection overnight across SD and KS. Upper heights will slowly build over the area Wednesday as a western upper level ridge begins to slide east.
334 PM EDT Mon Apr 24 2017 Afternoon surface analysis indicated a weak cold front extending roughly from Melbourne to Fort Myers, steadily moving into the forecast area.
232 PM CDT Mon Apr 24 2017 Height and pressure falls tonight and Tuesday ahead of a trough digging southeastward through the Pacific Northwest and Great Basin will result in a breezy to windy 24 hour period. This in turn will lead to mild overnight temperatures favoring the warmer end of a narrow range in the objective guidance. Thickening mid and high clouds during the afternoon may slightly limit wind speeds but may end up having more of an effect on temperatures with highs likely cooler by a number of degrees for areas on the Caprock.
143 PM EDT Mon Apr 24 2017 A deep and vigorous low pressure system will slowly move from the South Carolina coast to near Cape Hatteras by late Tuesday.
Light snow continues across north central ND, including Minot and eastward, but no reductions in visibility and roads appeared only wet on webcams with ND DOT road sensors showing road temps above freezing. Precip continues to work eastward and have also removed western and southern tier of counties from the advisory area with precip either having ended or temps above freezing. KMIB reporting light freezing rain with latest ob. Back edge of precip continues to push eastward, though some lingering light rain/freezing rain around Dickinson and along portions of I-94 corridor. A mix of snow/freezing rain/rain is likely between Highway 2 and 200. Further south along the I-94 corridor we should see a mix of rain/freezing rain. Air temperatures are generally at or below freezing across most locations. However, surface temperatures are a few degrees warmer.
124 PM EDT Mon Apr 24 2017 High pressure lingering over the forecast area will keep conditions dry through Tuesday.
255 PM MDT Mon Apr 24 2017 The main concern with this forecast package is the timing of the cold front moving through Niobrara and Converse counties tomorrow.
1239 PM CDT Mon Apr 24 2017 The cold front has pushed through a good portion of the CWA with temperatures slowly falling along and behind it. Low pressure moving over Pierre now and continuing east through the course of the day has already dislodged some very cool air, with Mobridge having fallen to 38 degrees and sub-freezing temperatures just across the border into North Dakota. High pressure nosing out of Canada/North Dakota will provide a continuous feed of weak cold advection through the course of the short term. The high never settles overhead with a storm track just to the east, so we will never experience ideal radiational conditions, however 850mb temperatures will be 1 to as low as 2 standard deviations below climo.
Cold front SW-NE BTWN Tampa Bay and Charlotte Harbor with ISOLD SHRA. Cold front lies southwest-northeast across Tampa Bay and exiting into south FL by evening.
139 PM EDT Mon Apr 24 2017 High pressure will be in control across the area through tonight.
Upper low will move from southern GA northeastward to E NC by Tuesday morning. In anticipation of clouds breaking up this evening and overnight, with temperatures lower than expected today and tonight, lowered low temperatures by roughly 1-3 degrees areawide with readings in the lower to middle 50s. High pressure to build in later tonight and Tuesday with the cooler temperatures shortlived.
334 PM EDT Mon Apr 24 2017 Some ridging continues to build into the region this afternoon. Where clouds have been less today, temperatures has warmed into the lower-middle 70s. Lows tonight will drop into the lower 50s, though some of colder spots could drop into the upper 40s. Quiet, dry, and warmer weather is expected for Tuesday with highs warming into the 75 to 80 degree range.
324 PM EDT Mon Apr 24 2017 High pressure lingering over the Great Lakes will keep conditions dry through Tuesday.
627 PM EDT Mon Apr 24 2017 High pressure will be in control across the area through tonight.
Given the low pressure location we are seeing easterly flow across the region and mostly cloudy skies for most. This as deep low slowly moves north and east and weak upper level ridge tries to nudge into the region. Given that did keep fog going in the Lake Cumberland region tonight, given the higher potential for breaks in the clouds. This will allow for clearing skies and warmer temperatures with high progressing into the mid to upper 70s.
A Pacific jet, seen on water vapor, was diving SE into the four- corners region and will bring upper divergence to the region through Tuesday as it carves out a deep trough. An upper low will form over NE WY by 12Z Tue. Models agreed that a bullseye of QPF would develop N of this low and affect areas from the Sheridan Foothills N and NE into SE MT tonight through Tue. Strong ENE winds will wrap around this low into the forecast area. Backdoor cold front will push W into the area bringing negative 850 mb temperatures as far W as Yellowstone and Musselshell County Tue. QPF amounts will be greater than a half inch in some areas around the low. Soundings showed the precipitation changing to snow around the low by 12Z Tuesday.
318 PM CDT Mon Apr 24 2017 High pressure aloft and at the surface will continue over our area through tonight. Upper low currently situated to our southeast over Georgia will continue moving east. The southerly flow will allow warmer temperatures with readings in the upper 70s/around 80.
Skies will slowly clear tomorrow and winds will taper off as high pressure builds into the area.
Satellite imagery shows that the jet core continues to sag southward across central Utah this afternoon and will move into southwestern Utah late tonight into Tuesday as ridging takes place between 130 and 140W.