Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Best chances of seeing a killing freeze remains out across the far se plains, with locations closer to the higher terrain likely a tad warmer with warming aloft under the building ridge. Temperatures are cool with generally 30s across the lower elevations. high pressure over the western states will build east into Colorado. Northerly flow at the surface will keep slightly cooler air in place, with daytime highs a few degrees cooler than what we have seen the past few days. Colorado will be stuck in between upper high pressure over the northern Rockies and upper low pressure over the southern Rockies for the next several days.
The cold front is moving through the mentioned region as of late this morning and some drying of the low-levels should reduce rain chances. With an upper low to our west and active southwest flow aloft, we will continue to mention a 40-50% chance for rain this afternoon across the remainder of south central Texas. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms remain possible throughout the day today as a cold front makes its way across the region from northwest to southeast. An upper level low develops over northwestern Mexico into the far southwestern states while a cold front moves across our area today.
Upper air flow very amplified with benefit of large ridge over central CONUS through most of the week.
the high pressure ridge across the western half of the country. and the cold front that is exiting the region this afternoon. A few showers lingering in the southeast should move out in the next few hours as the cold front moves to the east. For the overnight hours and into tomorrow, the high pressure ridge will build into the Midwest for a quiet and cool overnight and Wednesday. characterized by a large ridge holding firm over the western U. and Plains with a large upper trough over the northeast.
Cooler/drier air will continue to advect south across central and eastern Kansas tonight. Areas of frost as far south as the highway 50 corridor seem on track with the going headline.
Latest satellite water vapor loop shows the the upper trough axis across southeast Nebraska to north central Texas with the upper low circulation over south central Kansas moving northeast. Expect some light rain or drizzle in the areas ahead of the upper trough axis and northeast of the upper circulation. Areas of frost are expected across the CWA with temperatures dipping into the low to mid 30s. Counties along the Nebraska border have already had freezing temperatures so no advisory will be issued for those areas. As a result, expect low temperatures around sunrise to be in the low/mid 30s with areas of frost likely.
Concur with GFS/ECMWF/NAM deterministic that the approximately N-S upper trough over the Central CONUS tilts NE then the southern section cuts off/develops into a closed low and the northern section approaches the East Coast late in the period. The northern component contributes to the southward movement of a frontal boundary across the CWA/MSA Today while the southern trough/cut off low provide synoptic scale lift over the CWA/MSA during the period.
A secondary cold front will drop southeastward through our area tonight and usher in more normal temperatures for early February late tonight and Wednesday. A frontogenetical snow band is expected late tonight and Wednesday morning behind this second cold front across southern IA into central IL.
Arctic high pressure will move across Northeast Montana with dry and bitter cold weather. The high moves to the east tonight and an upper ridge moves into Western Montana. This will bring a warm front into Central Montana.
North winds behind a cold front passage tonight will increase and become gusty Wednesday afternoon. Cold front, currently near the OK/KS state line, will begin to make a southward push overnight.
West winds may continue to gust at a few location for the next several hours but will diminish later tonight, then will shift from the northeast 08/21-00Z as a weak cold front arrives. /issued 244 PM CST Tue Feb 7 2017/ WV imagery shows yesterday's the upper trough has entered the MS Valley, leaving dry, NW flow aloft over West Texas and Southeast New Mexico.
On the other hand, the main ridge axis still looks to move through western portions of the Dakotas keeping the area under at least somewhat of a pressure gradient.
1227 AM EST Wed Feb 8 2017 Rain showers will continue tonight until the passage of a cold front.
Temperatures across eastern Wisconsin were above freezing for much of the today so freezing rain/freezing drizzle was not a problem in the east. North central, northeast, and parts of central Wisconsin were below freezing so those areas had snow and/or freezing precipitation. Locations across the north had some freezing rain or a wintry mix that changed to snow as moisture became deeper and colder air moved into that part of the state. Some freezing or mixed precipitation is expected farther to the south, before it changes to all snow as it pushes out of the forecast area during the evening.
A dry cold front will move into the Big Country later this morning and will be along the I-10 corridor by mid-afternoon. Cold air advection will be weak with highs ranging from the upper 70s in the Big Country to the lower 80s farther south.
Ahead of the front temperatures will range from the lower 80s to the upper 70s in our northern most zones in southeastern Oklahoma, with partly cloudy conditions across most of the region. These winds are occurring due to tightening pressure gradient between the high to our east and the cold front to the NW. A decrease in temperatures, dew points, relative humidity will occur over the next several days as the front ushers in drier and cooler air. Overnight, temperatures will fall to the lower 40s south of I-20, and to the mid 30s north of the I-20 corridor.
Strong westerly flow will cause quite a bit of orographic snow for the higher elevations. The upper level jet lifts north overnight as a ridge builds to our west.
A northwest flow covers the forecast area Wednesday night as high pressure is over the central Dakotas.
Finally, the cooler air should begin to move into the region overnight tonight and especially during the day tomorrow. Upper 30s can be expected along the Highway 54 corridor with some locations on the AR/MO/OK border reaching the lower 50s before the cooler air moves into the region.
Opted to go with the colder solutions with lows in the lower to mid 20s tonight. The colder ECMWF was the choice for Wednesday although it may be too cold along the Colorado border at 3500 ft given the shallow nature of the cold air struggling to reach the higher elevations of the western high plains. If the cold surge pushes west of the Colorado border and doesn't erode with daytime heating then temperatures would be cooler at Elkhart. The warm solutions of the 12z GFS and NAM that showed highs in the lower 60s at Dodge City were ignored.
Through 18z the front moves little while to our northeast and east high pressure strengthens with colder air moving in. By 00z the stationary front remains to our west with high pressure starting to slide slowly east. Currently have highs in the low to mid 30s east and low to mid 50s west. For tonight warmer air aloft drifts into far eastern Colorado and with south to southwest winds around 10 mph produce mild lows in the mid to upper 20s. Across the east they'll still be under the influence of cold high pressure and light winds.
Ahead of the front temperatures will range from the lower 80s to the upper 70s in our northern most zones in southeastern Oklahoma, with partly cloudy conditions across most of the region. These winds are occurring due to tightening pressure gradient between the high to our east and the cold front to the NW. A decrease in temperatures, dew points, relative humidity will occur of the next several days as the front ushers in drier and cooler air. Overnight, temperatures will fall to the lower 40s south of I-20, and to the mid 30s north of the I-20 corridor.
High temperatures today will be in the lower 30s across much of the area, with lows tonight mainly in the teens.
This remains the same way as the cold front move through tonight.
In the near term, the main focus is on the cold front that extended from kmvn to 20 mi west of kpof at 19z. The 17z rap model soundings indicated the leading edge of dry air will remain just ahead of the front as it reaches the Lower Ohio Valley early this evening. Highs Wed will vary widely, from the lower 40s along I-64 to the mid 50s along the Tennessee border.
1138 PM CST Tue Feb 7 2017 South to southwest winds around 5 knots to become northwest after 08/18Z as high pressure rebuilds behind a frontal boundary that will move across the region. Well after quite a bit of record heat this afternoon in the low to mid 80s, we are falling down quickly this mid evening with the lower dew points the southwesterly winds coming in behind the trough, which is still struggling through out SE parishes. The cold front is still almost a day away currently over S. It will be too late with much of any cool air advection for the big change on highs coming, but this drier air is trending for cooler mornings and one afternoon anyway.
At the surface a cold frontal had advanced well south of our cwa into central Kansas early this afternoon.
Ceilings will lift by the afternoon hours as a cold front slowly approaches the area. Temperatures this afternoon will be unseasonably warm with warmer, moist air advecting into the area. As the cold front crosses the area Wednesday night, winds will shift and increase a bit.
/For the 06z TAFs/ A cold front will move through the area tonight resulting in winds becoming northerly. /issued 349 PM CST Tue Feb 7 2017/ Another cold front will move through the area late tonight and Wednesday morning taking the edge of the temperatures for a couple of days.
348 AM CST Wed Feb 8 2017 Upper ridge axis centered over the West Coast will build across the region over the next few days.
347 AM CST Wed Feb 8 2017 At 3 AM, a short wave trough was moving southeast through Iowa. Subsidence in the wake of the departing short wave trough will allow skies to gradually clear today. The high temperatures (13 to 23F) for today will be mainly this morning and only climb 1 to 3F this afternoon. For this evening, another short wave trough will move quickly southeast through the region.
158 AM EST Wed Feb 8 2017 Rain showers will continue tonight until the passage of a cold front.
At the surface, a cold front cuts across southeast Missouri with a secondary cold front near the Interstate 70 corridor ushering in much colder air. Highs on Wednesday will range from the upper 20s north to the lower 40s south.
The period begins with an Arctic high pressure sliding southward across the region.
339 AM CST Wed Feb 8 2017 A cooler/colder air mass will spread southeast during this time.
The front associated with this low will hold off moving into the CWA until tonight. Ahead of the front though, scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected today with the higher chances (30 percent) across the FL panhandle.
By late in the day on Wednesday, the cold front will surge through with N and NNE winds 10 to 15 kt. For tonight, the drier air will lead to somewhat of a cooler night with lows reaching the 50s to near 60. The higher values will be across the Coastal Plains where moisture values will remain a bit elevated. A cold front is projected to move through the region tomorrow evening, turning winds back to the north and ushering in slightly cooler temperatures for the overnight hours than previous days.
Would not completely rule our a brief very light shower, otherwise the shower threat has ended in the wake of the cold front that has moved to just southeast of Seymour. Surface cold front currently moving into the far northwest zones. Model data suggest main item of interest during this period will be a short wave trough that is expected to move over the area Wednesday afternoon and evening. Will go with PoPs from Wednesday morning through Wednesday night to cover this feature, with the highest PoPs over about the northern half of the forecast area Wednesday afternoon, coinciding with best lift.
A cold front will move across the terminals on Wednesday, with FROPA across the northern terminals between 16Z and 18Z and southern terminals between 18Z and 20Z. A cold front will move across the terminals on Wednesday, with north to northwest winds gusting to around 20 knots following FROPA. Southern and low lying areas, especially along the I-10 corridor and Llano and San Saba River Valleys, will see lower winds and cooler into the mid 40s. A cold front will move into the Big Country late Wednesday morning and along the I-10 corridor mid afternoon. 04 (Wednesday night through next Tuesday) Winds will already be turning around to the east/southeast by Wednesday night, following the cold front that will move through during the day.
411 AM EST Wed Feb 8 2017 Scattered showers will end this morning as a cold front moves southeast of the region.
We'll be stuck between high pressure over the northern and central plains and low pressure to the east. We'll stay on the cloudy side through the day, with some clearing possible tonight as the ridge pushes in.
324 AM CST Wed Feb 8 2017 Shallow cold front is making its way through northeast Oklahoma at this time, and will move through the entire forecast area by early afternoon.
Have trended twd the cooler guidance today with ample clouds and continued CAA. While expect tonight to be much colder than the past few days, have trended twd the warmer MOS with continued mixing expected overnight.
Cold front this afternoon has progressed through the northern half of Kansas, entering southeast Kansas at the current hour. Persistent cold air advection behind the boundary has kept the low levels cooler and ultimately held on to the stratus deck through much of the day. Readings generally stretch from the 30s over far northern KS, to the lower 50s over east central KS. Low clouds increase once again over the area with the caa keeping highs much cooler in the 30s.
309 AM EST Wed Feb 8 2017 Secondary cold front is quickly dropping through the area this morning, located near the M-59 corridor just after 300 AM. Drizzle and light snow showers continue south of the front, where temperatures remain above freezing. Behind the frontal boundary is where the sub-freezing temperatures are located, but also where drier air has cut off all precipitation. Large dome of high pressure centered over the Northern Plains will spread eastward today, allowing for a gradual decrease in winds during the first part of the day. Cold advection will not allow for much warming, if any today, and not expecting max temps to reach more than a few degrees warmer than morning lows.
306 AM CST Wed Feb 8 2017 Drier and warmer weather ahead. Much of this period will be marked by change, with the current 500mb ridge moving into the western states and the dominant trough set up across much of the rest of the nation slowly shifting to the eastern half of the nation. By 06Z tonight the 500mb map should show a full ridge over the western half of the nation, and a trough over the east.
Little to no dew point depression with temps in the lower 70s is making for a soggy morning. This line has been weakening over the past several hours as it nears the ridge axis.
There will be a sharp transition to no snow over northern Iowa as winds from the northwest rotating around high pressure reinforce dry air.
High pressure will then keep the area dry and cool through the end of the work week. High pressure will be in control over the area during the short term and thus dry weather can be expected.
While the highest QPF and resulting snow is still north of the forecast with this wave, it should still be able to produce amounts of generally less than an inch north of line from roughly Rockport to Atlanta in Macon county. Temperatures today may also be several degrees cooler than previously forecast so have generally cooled things down a few degrees. This change generally keeps areas north of the river below freezing.
skies are partly to mostly sunny w/ temps dropping from north to south as a cold front traverses. cold front situated over the southern tier of the CWA. These zones will be closest to the cresting ridge axis that will nosing into the central Plains.
1242 AM EST Wed Feb 8 2017 Low pressure will move rapidly into Ontario tonight with a trailing cold front sweeping across our area bringing a brief return to more winter like conditions. Temperatures will fall tonight and recover little on Wednesday with highs around freezing.
A cold front will track into north Alabama Wednesday evening.
At the surface, cold front that swept through last evening, now stretches from east to west across northern/central OK with colder air continuing to spill into KS. Lee troughing will increase as the upper pattern flattens out Fri which will setup strong low level warm advection across the southern Plains into KS. The northern Plains feature will push a cold front across the area Sat night. Even with gusty north winds in place today, cooler temps will keep RH's on the higher side, which will keep fire danger in check. Light winds will overspread the area Thu keeping the fire danger threat on the low side.
Upper level analysis has weak trof shifting into Minnesota and the Great Lakes region, with fast zonal flow across the western CONUS. At the surface, Arctic high pressure resides to the north of the forecast area, with a frontal boundary draped across the central Rockies and Plains. Models are in good agreement on the location of the higher amounts being across the central and southern Black Hills into southwestern SD, where 3 to 6 inches will be possible. Another cloudy and cold day is expected, with highs in the teens, with lower to mid 20s across Northeast Wyoming and the higher Black Hills.
High pressure will build across the region through midweek.
A taste of February reality, as much colder high pressure builds into the central plains. Kept forecast temperatures today in line with the coldest solutions, ranging from upper 30s NE (Hays) to near 60 on the highest terrain along the Colorado border.
A cold front is moving south across the area, approaching the I-40 corridor as of 830 PM. The cold front is likely to stall near or just south of I-40 tonight. At 20z a mid level trough axis was located over West Tennessee and North Mississippi and moving quickly east. Meanwhile to the northwest the surface cold front was located across Missouri. This warmer air at the surface and colder air aloft with the mid level trough is creating a good deal of instability along the Mississippi River where SBCAPES are approaching 2000 J/KG. The weakening cold front will stall roughly along the I-40 corridor tonight. The stalled front will start to move south during the afternoon as a mid level trough drops through the Mississippi Valley.
1253 AM EST Wed Feb 8 2017 Cold front overnight. Low pressure south of area Wednesday night.
Visibility within the higher returns of the band are around 1/2SM to 1SM. As the positive PV anomaly moves into SE NEB and NE KS late morning, positive height rises will be seen over western and north central NEB by mid-late afternoon as a ridge builds into the Pacific Northwest. The aforementioned ridge then moves eastward into the Northern Rockies by late tonight.
feel that clouds tonight will keep temperatures from plummeting too low, but lows are expected in the single digits across our northern border to low 20s across our far southwest, as a cold front passed through our area today bringing Arctic air behind it. Arctic air and cloudy skies will be continue to stick around along keeping temperatures cooler.
Showers will continue to become more numerous early this morning across north central Idaho and northwest Montana ahead of an approaching cold front. As the upper level trough settles over the Pacific Northwest tonight, forecast models continue to indicate a weather disturbance will rotate around the base of the trough into north central Idaho and southwest Montana.
Upper trof approaching from the west will help to pull southeast winds into SE MT to the east of deepening surface trof. Temperatures today will bump into the 70s to lower 80s ahead of an evening cold front. As cold front approaches late in the day will see scattered showers and thunderstorms develop over the western foothills, shifting eastward into central zones mid evening. Another trof pushes through the area Friday with more scattered shower and thunderstorm chances. Temperatures will be 15 to 20 degrees cooler than Thursday.
An upper level ridge with the axis across the western Gulf coast this morning will move eastward today with the CWA on the eastern edge of the upper level ridge.
Frontal boundary is pushing into a building upper level ridge over IL today, so it will have it hard time getting too far south into CWA. The front will lift back north as a warm front on Fri in response to a mid level trof lifting ne from the 4 corners into MO/IA by late Friday. Convection chances diminish overnight Fri night as warm front lifts further north away from area.
402 AM CDT Thu Apr 13 2017 High pressure shifting eastward across the upper Ohio river valley allows a return fetch of lower trop southerlies to establish, underneath a ridging upper High that firms up across the lower Mississippi valley. And as the aforementioned upper High shifts eastward across the Tennessee valley with time, we'll see a moistening profile as well, topping said ridge, with chance category/scattered Pops affecting ptns of the FA Friday. The clouds are topping a developing upper ridge of High pressure aloft, across the lower Mississippi valley. As we heat up during the pm hours, diurnal cu bases in the 4-5K AGL range may scatter below the higher clouds.
/issued 333 PM EDT Wed Apr 12 2017/ Scattered showers will continue to move inland for the rest of this afternoon into this evening as a low level trough continues to move into the eastern Gulf of Mexico. A ridge of high pressure will begin to build into the region on Thursday into Friday. Long range computer model guidance continues to show this ridge of high pressure remaining in place over the region. Temperatures will rise into the lower to mid 80s each afternoon across the region and they will fall into the 60s to near 70 each night. Small craft should continue to exercise caution tonight as high pressure keeps the moderate to fresh east to northeast winds in place. Winds and seas will then build up slightly towards the weekend as an area of high pressure rebuilds to the Northeast.
An upper ridge of high pressure centered over the lower Mississippi River valley will shift east over the forecast area through tonight.
A closed upper low centered off Vancouver Island will be the main driver during this period. Cold front moves east tonight with the beginnings of cyclogenesis in southern Alberta.
652 AM EDT Thu Apr 13 2017 A warm front will develop into the area today and then linger through Friday before lifting north Friday night.
Water vapor imagery nicely depicts upper level cutoff low just off the Pacific Northwest coast early this morning with ridge axis located just west of the Dakotas. Cold front will continue to move across the state on Friday with breezy westerly winds developing.
A low pressure trough moving by to the north will bring cooler and breezy weather today, along with a slight chance of light showers this morning west of the mountains and areas of strong winds in the mountains and deserts this afternoon and evening.
354 AM EDT Thu Apr 13 2017 High pressure will move in today and remain into Friday night with dry weather.
Vapor imagery and upper air data showed a short wave trough axis beginning to move east of our forecast area, which will result in sinking and drying aloft in its wake. Through the short term period, the region will be on the southwestern edge of a large ridge of high pressure over the Mid Atlantic States. Ridging aloft will also help suppress the potential for any showers and storms. High temperatures will be in the mid 80s, but humidity will be on the low side with afternoon dewpoints only in the mid to upper 50s.