Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
This will put most of the region within the warm sector out ahead of advancing cold front. 0-6 KM Bulk Shear values expected in the 40-50 kt range and decent turning of the winds in the lowest 1 KM would be sufficient to support organized convection with bowing segments and large hail the main threats.
Drizzle and freezing drizzle continued over portions of east-central and northeast Minnesota, including the Twin Ports and along the North Shore. Surface air temperatures remain a few degrees either side of freezing, but MNDoT RWIS pavement temperatures are above freezing. May need to extend the headlines farther west should ground truth support more freezing rain than presently expected. Nudged high temperatures a bit cooler for this afternoon due to continued cloud cover and limited heating. An upper level short wave trough will clip the Arrowhead and northwest Wisconsin Monday night. High pressure will be covering the rest of the forecast area.
A front will remain stationary across the area through this evening then return as a warm front late tonight and Monday.
High pressure does begin to shift east to replace the exiting system. Overnight lows will drop into the low 30s.
An area of low pressure approaching the region from the west will bring increasing southerly winds, mainly for the Missouri River valley. The winds should bring clearing skies along with warmer temperatures into the western half of the CWA.
Warm front with light rain on the Idaho side this evening. Rain and mountain snow in all areas again late tonight and Monday morning as Pacific cold front moves through. Showers continuing Monday under upper trough.
330 PM CDT Sun Mar 26 2017 Next mid/upper low pressure is currently located over far southwest KS this afternoon, and is forecasted to track over the area this evening and overnight. Ahead of the low pressure diffluence aloft and frontogenesis will support the development of a rain band over central KS. Closer to the low track decent moisture advection and mid level lapse rates will yield MU cape on the order of a few 100 j/kg. Therefore a cluster of storms is expected to develop north of the warm front that will stretch across southeast KS. These storms will be elevated with the warm front staying south of the area so damaging wind will be limited. The highest amounts will be north of the warm front and under the track of the upper level system.
CAA will be strongest across the northeast, holding afternoon highs down in the low 50s.
In terms of temperatures, a fairly dramatic spread in temps across the area from low to mid 40s east to mid to upper 50s west late this morning, but do expect as warm frontal feature lifts northward this afternoon that temps will become more uniform late. Given the low track northwest of the area, favor a mixing out of the shallow cold layer before cooler air spreads back into the area behind the low tonight. The next in a series of upper level systems will eject northeast out of the main upper trof and spread rain back across the area by late Monday. In the interim between the second and third systems, very cool air will spread across the area during the middle of the week as a large high pressure area builds south out of Canada.
Otherwise, with little overall change in conditions expected today, will trend highs down a few degrees, as temps likely will struggle to rise with the low cloud cover/showers. Upper level trough/500 mb low spinning over the mid mississippi river valley early this morning, per latest water vapor satellite imagery. The trough will continue to lift northeast today-tonight, with the low filling as it moves over the eastern great lakes. The GFS has the same trough, but holds it farther south, with little if any pcpn threat locally. A swath of pcpn would accompany the trough. Rather, it eventually merges it with another trough moving out of the southwest that would bring another round of pcpn Mon (ala what the EC expects for Thu-Fri). A low pressure system over central Illinois will move northeast into Lower Michigan tonight.
Upper trough moving through our forecast area (FA) this afternoon, with some drier air aloft moving in behind it. Upper trough over the Plains will move toward the Midwestern states tonight and toward the Ohio Valley on Monday.
Some freezing rain may also develop as temperatures cool down overnight and Monday morning. Any lingering precipitation should diminish by Monday afternoon as high pressure builds into the region. Temps have risen above freezing, so any additional precip this afternoon will be in the form of light rain.
High pressure and increasing upper-level heights will build across the region for early in the week.
Will take until mixing ceases for winds to back off as winds aloft dont subside much this evening before the low level jet develops overnight. however have some concerns about the strength of the low level jet over the eastern half of the forecast area. however 850 temps a few degrees cooler than today and more clouds should keep us from warming as much as today.
There is enough moisture and upper support for snow in the mountains tonight with this feature, but doesn't look like enough to make it to the ground over the plains and kept dry forecast with increasing cloud cover for the lower elevations.
Weak high pressure over Arizona will move east tonight as a low pressure center off the Pacific Northwest Coast moves southeast. This low will bring increasing winds and clouds to northern Arizona Monday with a chance of showers and thunderstorms by the afternoon.
1221 PM CDT Sun Mar 26 2017 Slow moving mid-level cyclone that we have been dealing with for a couple of days is moving through eastern MO early this morning per WV imagery. The 07Z objective surface analysis indicated a ridge axis from western MN into central KS. Weak flow within this ridge axis will allow for the low clouds currently in place across the CWA to remain through the day today.
If we get any rainfall it will likely be on the backside of the low with the wrap around precipitation across our northeastern parts of our area.
345 PM CDT Sun Mar 26 2017 (Tonight and Monday) Early this afternoon an upper low, associated with an eastward moving upper trough over the Southern Plains, is located just north of the Panhandle. A weak Pacific cold front located west of the CWA is trailing the dryline. Upper ridging will build over the area from the west in the wake of the departing upper trough.
Dew point axis extended from east TX where readings were in the mid 60s to south central OK with readings in the low to mid 50s. Temperatures will range from the low 60s in the west to around 70 in the southeast CWA.
Kept conditions cloudy further south and east and will leave highs in the low 40s for now.
/issued 935 AM EDT Sun Mar 26 2017/ A weak U/L trough will push across the region today, with strong ridging surface and aloft developing in its wake tonight and Monday. The trough has weakened the mid level subsidence inversion and has slightly increased deep layer moisture with PCPW climbing to just over an inch on the TBW 12Z sounding.
Upper low is working its way out of the region towards the Great Lakes, which will decrease precip chances as the day progresses. Conditions look to improve to VFR this afternoon as the upper low continues to work its way out of the region to the northeast. Current satellite trends and upstream obs has MVFR cigs, but hopefully increasing winds can help mix out the low levels and allow for VFR cigs at all terminals this afternoon. KCSV has the highest chances for fog, but KCKV is not far behind.
248 PM CDT Sun Mar 26 2017 Wx map shows high pressure over the eastern Gulf with low pressure over the Plains yielding southerly flow over the region.
At the surface, a high pressure ridge axis extended into central and eastern Nebraska.
The increase in moisture with precipitable water approaching 1/2 inch will coincide with a weak approaching upper level trof.
It appears that the warm sector/warm front will remain south into Okla and will not make it into Kan. This is particularly true if the warm front does not move any north. Have adjusted the highest pops as a result. There also could be a cold core associated storm (low topped supercell) that tracks along the warm front that could produce a tornado.
/issued 415 AM CDT Sun Mar 26 2017/ (Today and Tonight) The surface map this morning indicates a warm front along a Del Rio to College Station line.
This low is expected to pick up some speed overnight as it tracks northeast across lower Michigan into Ontario. Water vapor satellite shows another upper level low coming out of Colorado and into Kansas this afternoon and a northern stream short wave trough over southern Manitoba. The upper level low will begin to fill Monday as it tracks into the Ohio River Valley with the short wave trough staying across southern Canada and Lake Superior.
First mid/upper level trough will lift out as second approaches during the period. Tomorrow will see instability increase again and with upper trough edging closer, expect scattered showers and thunderstorms especially in the afternoon.
307 PM MDT Sun Mar 26 2017 As our most recent storm system continues to head eastward into the high plains, weak ridging aloft has begun over the western slope this afternoon. Despite rising heights, lingering low level moisture and cooler air aloft has resulted in a few scattered snow showers in the central and southern Colorado mountains. A mainly dry overnight is forecast as the ridge axis passes east of the divide around sunrise. Have opted to nudge temperatures upward by a degree or two in this forecast package favoring the warmer MET guidance, given strong mixing and warmer southerly flow portrayed in several forecast soundings across the region.
Active weather will return Monday, associated with a northern branch upper low moving into MO. Short range models depict the associated midlevel trof axis impinging on a moderately unstable airmass over the Midsouth Monday afternoon. The upper low will lift into the Ohio valley Monday evening, but a few showers and thunderstorms could persist along a surface cold front as it drops through the Midsouth.
Surface dewpoints in the lower 50s across this area raises some questions on whether moisture could recover quickly enough to support ongoing deep layer convection.
This inversion combined with continued high moisture content in the low levels will allow for low clouds and fog to once again impact all of the terminals.
Low pressure will be moving ENE out of the state Monday evening with with the trough axis progged to be roughly along I-57 at 7 p.
246 PM EDT Sun Mar 26 2017 A warm front will approach from the southwest tonight, before a weak wave of low pressure forms and passes through the Gulf of Maine Monday.
1111 AM MDT Sun Mar 26 2017 08z surface analysis had low over central CO with cold front into western SD. Water vapour had upper trough from MT into CO, moving east. Tonight through Monday afternoon, upper ridge builds into the northern plains ahead of another upper trough moving from the west coast into the Rockies. Monday night, upper trough splits with several pieces of energy moving into the plains states.
1230 PM CDT Sun Mar 26 2017 The cutoff low which has been the prominent feature affecting the local area over the last couple of days will finally be pushed northeastward as an upper level trough advects overhead this evening.
Atlantic high pressure will weaken early this week.
200 PM CDT Sun Mar 26 2017 Have upper trough centered over CO early passing across the region today with brief ridging expected after that.
Deepening low pressure in the Southern Plains will induce an increasing s-sw flow across South TX Today.
however the next upper trof will be dropping through the western US into the Great Basin by 00z Tues. Snowfall accumulations of an inch or two will be possible across the higher peaks. with a return of warmer temperatures.
The upper level ridge over the region will break down tonight with the passage of a weak cold front. Tonight and tomorrow will be unstable enough for some graupel showers, though freezing levels are low enough that lightning will be very isolated, if any occurs at all.
139 PM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016 High pressure will bring mainly clear skies and warm air to NY and PA through the weekend.
An upper level low over Mexico will help advect in higher PWs tomorrow, particularly over the SW zones.
(from prev disc) Slow erosion of subtropical ridge, which has been present the entire work week across the area will bring eventual increase in rain chances during the weekend.
A weak upper level disturbance/TUTT low moving into the eastern part of the Mexican state of Coahuila is beginning to impinge upon the upper level ridge located over the Southern Plains and push it to east into Louisiana. Global and hi-res models continue to trend towards more scattered showers and thunderstorms tomorrow as the upper level low pushes into northern Coahuila tomorrow. The greatest rain chances and totals currently appear to be in the vicinity of the Austin-San Antonio corridor southeast towards the Coastal Plains where terrain and sea-breeze effects along with dynamic forcing from the upper level low should be maximized.
424 PM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016 Rest of Today-Tonight: Low level ridge axis is draped across Lake Okeechobee this afternoon, well marked by the direction of shower and storm movement across the Florida peninsula.
Otherwise, mostly clear skies overnight with light or calm wind with lows in the lower 70s.
248 PM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016 A warm front draped across southeast Missouri into northwest Tennessee will remain fairly stationary tonight.
334 PM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016 There is a ridge over most of the Plains with a trough on the lee of the Rockies which is heading east. A trough over the Pacific Northwest will move to the Northern Plains on Saturday.
203 PM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016 202 PM CDT High pressure overhead continues east tonight. Two weak low pressure systems merge over south-central Canada Saturday morning and the new. 12Z guidance has a much slower progression of the system so slowed the arrival of clouds ahead of the low's cold front. Moisture will also be on the rise so heat indices will be in the low to mid 90s.
Cold front brings cool dry weather tonight across the region.
341 PM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016 (Tonight and Saturday) A weak upper low, currently over southeastern Coahuila Province in northern Mexico this afternoon, will move slowly northwest to the Texas Big Bend Region on Saturday afternoon. Not much change in temperatures is expected, with overnight lows in the lower to mid 70s and highs Saturday in the lower to mid 90s.
Upper low tracking through the Intermountain West as upstream upper ridging in the EPAC approaches. Upper level winds are not in phase with the low level gradient. Upper ridging from the EPAC builds over Interior NorCal over the weekend resulting in significant warming.
the synoptic scale pattern was defined by longwave ridging over much of the CONUS with low pressure moving into northwestern Montana, as well as another disturbance pushing northwestward along the Mexico/Texas border.
300 PM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016 A back door cold front will slowly sag south through the region tonight and early Saturday.
131 PM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016 High pressure over the WESTERN Great Lakes will slide across the area by Saturday evening.
613 PM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016 High pressure over the Great Lakes will drift to New England Saturday but will continue to influence weather across the region through Saturday.
133 PM EDT Fri Jun 24 2016 High pressure will be the main influence on the North Country's weather through the weekend.
1236 PM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016 228 AM CDT Today through tonight: Early this morning winds have become light and variable, as high pressure was centered north of Illinois but providing enough of an influence with the lack of a gradient.
High pressure will remain South of the region this period, as moisture increases.
240 PM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016 High pressure centered over the Great Lakes will continue to control the weather across central Illinois tonight. Nearly calm winds initially will become light from the E/SE overnight as the high slowly shifts away and the pressure gradient begins to tighten.
429 PM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016 Mid to upper level ridge remains entrenched across the Gulf coast region, and will generally remain over the forecast area through the weekend. Subsidence from this ridge will keep rain chances at a minimum.
1230 PM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016 High pressure centered over the Great Lakes will dominate the weather today, providing mostly sunny and dry conditions. Afternoon highs will be several degrees cooler than yesterday, with mixing from about 875mb resulting in readings ranging from the lower 80s far north around Lacon. but will switch from generally northerly overnight to more easterly by afternoon as the high to the north re-positions eastward. Moderate dewpoints in the mid 60s should result from the high pushing down slightly cooler and drier air into the area.
300 PM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016 High pressure will continue to provide mostly clear skies and dry conditions into tonight and Saturday.
Surface boundary now south of the area with trailing weak cold front starting to make its way south across the CWA. As middle level ridge builds over the area on Saturday, not expecting any precipitation.
440 PM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016 The Four State Region will remain under the influence of high pressure on the surface and aloft resulting in hot temperatures and small chances for rain into the late weekend.
Rest of the afternoon forecast is still on track with cooler and less humid conditions in place.
312 PM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016 An upper level ridge currently extends from southern New Mexico across North Texas east-southeastward into northern Florida has dominated the weather across North and Central Texas for the last week. A TUTT, Tropical Upper Troposphere Trough, can be seen on satellite imagery northwest of Saltillo /MMIO/ in Coahulia, Mexico.
A mid/upper level trough will continue moving across the interior Pacific Northwest today producing some windy conditions of 15-30kts through this evening.
1247 PM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016 H5 analysis this evening had a closed low off the coast of Washington state. Downstream of the closed low, a low amplitude ridge was present from the western Dakotas into southern Saskatchewan and southern Manitoba. A low amplitude trough of low pressure extended from southern Quebec south to New England. Across the southern third of the CONUS, high pressure extended from west Texas to Florida. Cooler day on Saturday compared to Friday behind the cold front. Canadian high pressure settles overhead Saturday night with lows at or below normal with temps bottoming out for most locations in the lower to mid 50s.
407 PM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016 Overall a hot and humid weekend is in store as the near 594dm subtropical ridge continues to build into the region.
The initial longwave pattern across CONUS this evening consists of storm system/upper trough rotating and pushing across the Divide, and an upper ridge moving east across the Central Plains.
High High pressure will slowly depart to the east tonight into Saturday as a trough of low pressure approaches from the west. Latest guidance has slowed the progression of the trough tomorrow, suggesting mainly dry weather through the afternoon. The later trough arrival should spell more sunshine, so bumped temps up a bit for tomorrow.
Low cloud coverage is expected to expand north- northwest early Saturday morning, and KSJT and KABI should be on the northern edge of the low cloud field. Temperatures will be close to seasonal normals, with highs today in the 90 to 95 range and lows tonight in the lower to mid 70s.
As an upper trough axis moves east of us tonight, an upper ridge will begin building over our area, and a thermal trough develops along the coast.
low pressure aloft spinning to the southwest of KLRD is causing a south-southeast low level flow across deep south Texas. /issued 413 AM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016/ SHORT TERM (Today through Saturday): An upper level low over Northeast Mexico is drifting north-northwest on the western periphery of an upper level high extending across Northern Texas eastward into the Gulf Coast States. Isolated showers are ongoing over the Lower Texas coastal waters early this morning however with land areas still somewhat stable showers are dissipating as they approach the coast line. As the upper low continues to drift NNW upper diffluence to increase which may result in some enhanced lift.
1133 AM MDT FRI JUN 24 2016 The upper ridge moves east today and tonight in advance of the upper low moving through Montana along the U. Saturday high temperatures will range from the lower 80s to lower 90s following the passage of the cold front. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to redevelop during the afternoon along and in advance of the cold front mainly across the southeastern portion of the forecast area.
315 PM PDT FRI JUN 24 2016 A low pressure system moving across the Pacific Northwest will bring increased winds to much of our area through Friday evening.
SHORT TERM (Tonight through Saturday Night):Upper level low pressure centered over northeast Mexico will slowly migrate north- northwestward through the period. Increasing upper diffluence associated with the northward progressing upper low will lead to scattered showers with some embedded thunderstorms across the entire Rio Grande Valley mainly in the afternoon on Saturday. As the low moves farther away from deep south Texas Saturday night, showers will end for a dry night.
324 PM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016 The 20z surface and satellite analysis indicated that temps were ranging from the mid to upper 80s across northeast Alabama and in southern middle Tennessee, to the lower 90s in northwest Alabama.
150 PM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016 A back door cold front will slowly sag south through the region tonight and early Saturday.
The lowest visibilities (1/4 mile or less) are being reported in Black River Falls, Boscobel, and Winona. As the high pressure area drifts off to the east today, southerly winds around 10 mph will develop across the region. This will result in the high temperatures climbing to around 80 degrees which is a couple of degrees below normal. During the evening and early overnight, the 850 mb moisture transport will progressively increase north of Interstate 90 as short wave trough approaches the area from the central and northern Plains.
Residual clouds and a few showers tonight will end on Saturday as high pressure offshore moves over the region.
332 PM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016 High pressure over the Great Lakes will drift to New England Saturday but will continue to influence weather across the region through Saturday.
Southeasterly winds ahead of the low continued to advect low level moisture into our region. while a couple models still suggest some convection at the boundary between the western edge of the low level jet, the surface dewpoint boundary between lower 60s southwest and upper 60s/70s to the east and north. This convection is associated with the large upper level impulses out ahead of the main upper low, which is progged to be centered over southwestern Saskatchewan daybreak Saturday morning, and moving east into southern Manitoba by Saturday evening. As the associated cold front enters western North Dakota after midnight, strong west/northwest winds will initially push into the southwest part of the state.
240 PM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016 A back door cold front will slowly sag south through the region tonight and early Saturday.
Temperatures have warmed into the 80s, with the cool spots in the NE/E sections and the warmer spots residing in our southwestern areas. For tonight, high pressure will nose into the region from the Great Lakes states. Lows will range from 65 to 70 in most areas, a few of our typical cool spots may be slightly cooler. Afternoon temperatures will top out in the upper 80s to the lower 90s. Lows Saturday night will cool into the upper 60s to the lower 70s.