Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Cooler than normal temperatures and extensive night and morning inland low cloud coverage can be expected for the remainder of the week and upcoming weekend. Significantly cooler temperatures were observed across inland areas today.
A bit warmer with less wind. Fri night through Sun Upper level ridge axis over the High Plains will move over the Dakotas by 84 hours. Water vapor loop indicated an upper level trough over northern ALTA. Trough will move across southern MAN on Sat and bring a slight reinforcement of cooler air out of Canada.
High pressure centered over Texas will continue to provide VFR conditions for Deep South Texas and the three regional airports for the next 24 hours. Afternoon high temps will range from the low to mid 90s along the coast to several degrees above the century mark inland west.
Do expect showers to gradually spread northward into far southern parts of the CWA overnight as an upper low around the 4 corners area drifts a bit northeast.
Thunderstorms have developed over southeast Colorado and southwest Kansas along and ahead of the frontal boundary in closer proximity to the weak short wave troughs aloft that will be lifting into the forecast area this evening. Expect isolated to scattered storms to develop in the CU field through the remainder of this afternoon as additional storms move into the forecast area with the short wave troughs aloft through the evening and overnight hours.
As far as temperatures go, we will continue to see a falling of both overnight lows and daytime highs as cooler northerly air filters into north central Nebraska. Highs will only rise into the low 70s across the southwest CWA (southwest of a Hay Springs to North Platte line).
Subjective analysis shows a cold front draped from central Kansas into southwestern Kansas this afternoon. This front is associated with an upper level trough situated over southeast Manitoba province moving east, which will provide the push of this front into eastern Kansas later this evening. With dewpoints in the lower 70s, heat indicies have ranged from 105-110 degrees across portions of eastern Kansas. Temperatures tomorrow will be much cooler in comparison to today due to the frontal passage. Expect highs to range from the lower 80s in northern Kansas to upper 80s in central Kansas.
High pressure will continue to prevail at the mid-levels into the weekend.
1144 PM CDT THU AUG 4 2016 Surface cold front was in the process of moving through the area this afternoon and at 19z extended from northwest Iowa through east central Nebraska into southwest Kansas.
858 PM EDT Thu Aug 4 2016 High pressure east of Long Island will move further off the coast tonight and Friday.
(Issued 829 PM CDT THU AUG 4 2016) Temperatures were ranging in the lower to mid 80s across the TN Valley, with no convection within the forecast area. Temperatures will be similar to those observed this morning, with lows expected in the lower 70s.
Scattered convection is circulating around an upper trough axis which resides across the mid state this afternoon. On Friday, airmass looks drier as the aforementioned trough axis will be located east of our area.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 73 94 74 93 / 50 20 20 50 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 72 90 72 90 / 70 40 20 50 Oak Ridge, TN 72 91 73 90 / 90 40 20 60 Tri Cities Airport, TN 69 86 68 87 / 50 60 30 50.
Synoptically, a cold front will move through the CWA tonight. Still will see breezy winds on Friday out of the northwest due to the tightened pressure gradient behind the departing system and high pressure building in behind it.
The high pressure system that has brought the dry weather to the region the past couple of days will finally move east Friday night and this will bring a cold front into the region.
/Tonight/ Main Impact: Strong to severe thunderstorms Confidence: High Ongoing showers and storms continue along a cold front extending from western Wisconsin, through Iowa, and into the Oklahoma panhandle. /Friday through Thursday/ Main Impact: Cooler temperatures, rain south Confidence: High High pressure will surge in off the Dakotas towards the upper Midwest throughout the weekend.
705 PM EDT THU AUG 4 2016 Aviation A cold front will move across the region bringing scattered showers and storms tonight and through the first half of Friday. This front will also bring less humid and cooler air to Southwest Michigan.
703 PM EDT THU AUG 4 2016 Warm and humid conditions along with periodic shower and thunderstorm chances are expected until the passage of a Friday night cold front. A cold front will approach the Upper Ohio Valley late in the day Friday.
730 PM EDT THU AUG 4 2016 High pressure will keep mainly clear and dry weather over the area into Friday.
724 PM EDT THU AUG 4 2016 A ridge of high pressure overhead will keep it mainly dry and seasonably warm into Friday.
The center of the mid-level ridge may shift towards the north slightly which should allow for the re-development of VFR CU on Friday afternoon. This has yielded heat index values around 105 for some areas east of I-35 where dewpoints have only mixed out into the upper 60s with a few spots still having dewpoints in the low 70s.
Tonight and Friday Severe potential with thunderstorms over the forecast area at 20Z are the first concern, followed by chances for more development ahead of a cold front. Am concerned that there could be more development in unstable air ahead of a cold front that was just moving into western Wisconsin this afternoon.
Broad surface ridging over the northern Gulf is expected to expand by early Friday morning, with more southerly winds pushing slightly deeper moisture towards the Upper Texas Coast. Additional heating during the day on Friday will promote SHRA (with a few TSRA possible) development again along the sea breeze, with slightly better coverage than what was observed today with more moisture in place and the broad upper ridge over Texas wobbling farther north of the region. Most of this activity is expected to dissipate with loss of heating, but will need to keep an eye on the placement of the upper ridge late in the TAF period. A few higher resolution models show a disturbance rotating under the ridge Friday evening, bringing in additional isolated SHRA from the northeast/east.
We should see the deeper moisture pushed eastward tomorrow, with convection mainly from Tucson east to the NM border as drier air associated with an upper level trough advects into the western deserts.
The upper low is now over far southeastern Manitoba with a SFC cold front extending from north- central MN to SE MN. Another round of convection is possible this evening into early tonight as the cold front moves through, but that is a lot more uncertain and less likely to be severe due to this earlier convection.
A modestly strong cold front for early August stretched from southeast Nebraska into northwest Kansas at early afternoon.
The high center wl pretty much show ltl movement heading into the weekend.
1159 PM EDT THU AUG 4 2016 A ridge of high pressure overhead will keep it mainly dry and seasonably warm into Friday.
/Issued 240 PM CDT THU AUG 4 2016/ Cold front has pushed southward and is now right just about to the northern Oklahoma Panhandle. Some of the thunderstorms may become strong to marginally severe as the front enhances the low level wind shear.
Additional scattered SHRA/TSRA will return Friday afternoon, with the highest probability at terminals south of I-20 including HBG/PIB.
Low pressure will pass north of the Great Lakes on Friday with the associated cold front pushing south across the area on Friday night. High pressure will build southeast out of Canada over the weekend. Temperatures will reach the low 90s most locations with heat index values pushing the mid 90s and possibly upper 90s in nw Ohio. High pressure will build southeast out of Canada for the weekend bringing a return to more seasonal temperatures.
937 PM EDT THU AUG 4 2016 A weak frontal boundary along the southeast coast will remain well south of the local area through Friday, as high pressure becomes centered well off the New England coast.
937 PM EDT THU AUG 4 2016 High pressure will keep mainly clear and dry weather over the area into Friday.
High pressure edging in from the northwest should bring drier air and light northwest winds tonight which should keep fog to a minimum. Atmosphere remains primed for potentially strong to severe thunderstorms this afternoon and early evening along and south of I-90 as a cold front sweeps across the region. Lingering activity from last night's convection has moved east of the forecast area with a secondary line of showers and thunderstorms ahead of the cold front from east of Austin to near Winona, moving east- southeast around 30 mph. Temperatures will be much cooler with afternoon highs only in the mid 70s to lower 80s. Continued dry and pleasant conditions for the weekend with high pressure dominating the regional weather pattern.
1028 PM CDT THU AUG 4 2016 Showers and isolated thunderstorms moving through the area the remainder of this afternoon and into the early evening along the cold front. A really nice Friday taking shape as surface ridging continues across the area.
TFJ This evening starts with an upper ridge in place over the Divide with local flow aloft from the west to northwest.
1031 PM MDT THU AUG 4 2016 Cooler high pressure will remain over the area tonight. Lows will be warmer than last night but some local freezing temperatures may still occur in the mountain valleys of the west.
756 PM EDT THU AUG 4 2016 A ridge of high pressure overhead will keep it mainly dry and seasonably warm into Friday.
738 PM EDT THU AUG 4 2016 High pressure slowly slides offshore through Friday.
Atmosphere remains primed for potentially strong to severe thunderstorms this afternoon and early evening along and south of I-90 as a cold front sweeps across the region. Lingering activity from last night's convection has moved east of the forecast area with a secondary line of showers and thunderstorms ahead of the cold front from east of Austin to near Winona, moving east- southeast around 30 mph. Temperatures will be much cooler with afternoon highs only in the mid 70s to lower 80s. Continued dry and pleasant conditions for the weekend with high pressure dominating the regional weather pattern.
High pressure is still the name of the game with the upper level subtropical ridge firmly planted over the state. With the high pressure keeping the area stable, upper level flow is weak. Thanks to the high pressure little change in the forecast from day-to-day means tomorrow will be almost a carbon copy of today.
Lower to mid level ridging aligned just to our north continues to bring in drier air. Temperatures are in the low to mid 80s with dew points in the mid 70s. Short Term Update - Light east to southeast breezes will prevail along the Florida Keys overnight due to the ridging across the Florida Peninsula. Close by ridging along with dry air through much of the column will keep rain chances slight through the overnight hours. Ridging across Central Florida will keep light to gentle east to southeast breezes across Florida Keys coastal waters. On this date in Florida Keys weather history, in 1894, the low temperature in Key West was 68 degrees. In addition, this low temperature of 68 degrees is tied as the minimum temperature ever observed in Key West during the month of August.
During this same time period, a cold front is progged by the models to be moving southeast to near the Ohio river by Friday evening.
953 PM CDT THU AUG 4 2016 The cold front is pushing through northwest Wisconsin and should exit by midnight at the latest. Synoptically, a cold front will move through the CWA tonight. Still will see breezy winds on Friday out of the northwest due to the tightened pressure gradient behind the departing system and high pressure building in behind it.
1036 PM EDT THU AUG 4 2016 A ridge of high pressure overhead will keep it mainly dry and seasonably warm into Friday.
616 PM CDT THU AUG 4 2016 Nudged pop grids/thunderstorm coverage upward this evening and overnight, through sunrise Friday, as cold front boundary continues to slide south through a very moist atmosphere. A cold front will slowly drift southward across much of western Kansas tonight with the highest rainfall chances north of Dodge City and up around Syracuse to Hays. Rainfall estimates could exceed an inch or two in that area of best isentropic lift north of the cold front. For Friday, the cold front will be near or just south of Medicine Lodge with a continued small chances for showers and thunderstorms with mostly cloudy skies.
Monsoon moisture starting to ride up a building ridge over the Great Basin. Upper level ridging build over the region overnight tonight. Ridging begins to slip east by mid afternoon.
This has yielded heat index values around 105 for some areas east of I-35 where dewpoints have only mixed out into the upper 60s with a few spots still having dewpoints in the low 70s.
Temperatures were ranging in the lower to mid 80s across the TN Valley, with no convection within the forecast area. Temperatures will be similar to those observed this morning, with lows expected in the lower 70s.
935 PM CDT THU AUG 4 2016 High pressure will build over western and central ND tonight under mostly clear skies.
935 PM EDT THU AUG 4 2016 Warm and humid conditions along with periodic shower and thunderstorm chances are expected until the passage of a Friday night cold front. A cold front will approach the Upper Ohio Valley late in the day Friday.
Low pressure will pass north of the Great Lakes on Friday with the associated cold front pushing south across the area on Friday night. High pressure will build southeast out of Canada over the weekend. Current overnight low temperature forecast from the mid to upper 60s inland to the lower 70s at the lakeshore seem reasonable. Temperatures will reach the low 90s most locations with heat index values pushing the mid 90s and possibly upper 90s in nw Ohio. High pressure will build southeast out of Canada for the weekend bringing a return to more seasonal temperatures.
The warm sector is progged to remain capped in advance of the trailing cold front. The cold front will push across the Missouri/Kansas border after midnight and all of the area by midday Friday.
Another warm day in store for Friday but may be a little cooler than today with possible cloud cover. An upper level closed low and trough of low pressure will be swinging across the central sections of the country with a cold front moving through the Four State Region Friday.
456 PM CST Thu Feb 23 2017 At H5 Upper closed low over eastern Wyoming with winter storm over northern plains. Closed low off florida coast and closed low over the southern Hudson Bay with storm moving across Noertheast CONUS. Had some reports over southwest Nebraska of freezing precipitation early this afternoon but threat has diminished. Upper low over eastern Wyoming with energy rotating to the northeast across western Nebraska.
348 PM MST Thu Feb 23 2017 Latest water vapor loop was showing a very elongated upper level trof stretching from the intermountain west east towards the high plains. The upper low deepens over the central Plains Friday with snow rates diminishing east of the Laramie Range mid to late morning while persisting through the afternoon out west across Carbon and Albany counties.
Drier and cooler conditions are forecast through Friday with chilly overnight temperatures.
Cold front should move through the area Friday morning, shifting winds around to the northwest. /issued 401 PM CST Thu Feb 23 2017/ (Tonight and Friday) An upper level trough will track east from the Rockies and across the central Plains tonight, with an associated cold front dropping south across the area after midnight. Aforementioned front will usher in a dry and cooler airmass for Friday, with afternoon highs still above normal but about 20 degrees cooler than today, with highs in the upper 60s and lower 70s.
The HRRR and RAP13km models showed a narrow area of convective development anywhere from Dodge City eastward through Stafford/Great Bend and northward, corresponding to a band of moderate CAPE values ahead of the warm front and frontal forcing zone.
416 PM CST Thu Feb 23 2017 Another nice day underway as high pres ridges from the Carolinas southwest over the northern Gulf Coast. Latest WV imagery/UA analysis shows a weak ridge transiting the area aloft while further upstream an upper low/trough is crossing the Intermountain West. On Friday, the trough over the Intermountain West will move into the central plains, allowing a cold front to move into the area Friday aftn and evening. The potential for some compressional warming ahead of the frontal boundary will likely bump the already very warm temperatures another degree or two, with max temps reaching the lower 80s acrs the area.
Lows tonight will drop into the teens and 20s and highs on Friday will struggle to break the freezing mark.
With this issuance, will speed up southward progression of cold front which should clear all terminals by midnight with gusty northwest winds continuing through end of forecast period. A cold front will move through the area tonight and much cooler (well, I guess I should say near- normal) temperatures to the area for tomorrow. Despite the cooler temperatures, we still can see some gusty northwest/north winds and some low humidity again.
An upper level low is still moving through the central high plains this afternoon and will move eastward toward the Great Lakes by Friday evening. With the temperatures a little cooler this afternoon, there may be a bit earlier change from rain to snow as colder air moves into the area this evening.
The elongated piecemeal composition of this system is making it difficult to pinpoint forcing mechanisms and models continue to struggle with precipitation placement outside of areas very close to the center of the low track. Biggest concern with additional snowfall this afternoon into tonight will not be the amounts, but the melting and refreezing on roads that could make travel treacherous in some areas.
The slower and more southward track of the low has prevented the sfc warm front from making much progress into the CWA today, leaving only elevated frontogenesis and WAA as support for light rain showers. Deep layer shear, even disregarding the lowest 1 km, will be on the order of 50-60 kts and would support rotation should any more robust cells develop.
Latest water vapor imagery shows a subsident and very dry air mass moving over the Peninsula, though this doesn't tell the whole story as a significant amount of moisture continues to reside in the low levels as evident on both this evening's XMR sounding and with dewpoints lingering in the low to mid 60s as of 9 PM.
Quick update to account for a much faster cold front that is already exiting the eastern OK Panhandle ahead of stout northerly winds. A weak Pacific cold front will traverse southeast across our CWA later tonight. A cooler and even drier air mass will fill in behind the front as overnight lows moderate back toward more seasonal values. Despite cooler temperatures that normally help to mitigate fire weather concerns, drier air coupled with another afternoon of strong west-northwesterly surface winds will leave our area vulnerable to wild fires as RH values drop to 10 to 15 percent Friday afternoon.
Temperatures range from the lower 70s in northeast Mississippi to the upper 70s across the Mississippi River Delta.
555 PM CST Thu Feb 23 2017 A vigorous trough over the Rockies will emerge over the Central Plains of Nebraska tonight. Strong forcing for ascent will spread downstream across Kansas where a few strong to severe storms may develop across portions of Central KS early this evening as an area of low pressure translates northeast across the area. A cold front will follow, spreading south and east across the forecast area tonight with breezy northwest winds in it's wake. An area of high pressure at the sfc is progged to sprawl across the southern and central plains states on Sat with slowly moderating temperatures and light winds.
Otherwise, expecting some breezy/gusty northerly winds tonight and through the day Friday on the back side of the low pressure system.
A cold upper trough over the area today will shift east on Friday.
910 PM CST Thu Feb 23 2017 A broad SW-NE oriented instability axis nearly juxtaposed with a strong SE-movg cold front has been sufficient to 'spark' a few thunderstorms in Southeast KS late this evening. A vigorous trough over the Rockies will emerge over the Central Plains of Nebraska tonight. Strong forcing for ascent will spread downstream across Kansas where a few strong to severe storms may develop across portions of Central KS early this evening as an area of low pressure translates northeast across the area. A cold front will follow, spreading south and east across the forecast area tonight with breezy northwest winds in it's wake. An area of high pressure at the sfc is progged to sprawl across the southern and central plains states on Sat with slowly moderating temperatures and light winds.
This system will continue to move to the northeast, deepening and sending todays front back to the north as a warm front as the warmer airmass in the SE pushes back with more significant warm advection. This warmer and minimally higher RH air will be the instability that will potentially fuel the storms that may develop tomorrow afternoon after the low passes to the north, dragging the cold front across eastern Illinois. The low pressure area of the ongoing weather system should be in the Great Lakes region Friday evening.
917 PM EST Thu Feb 23 2017 Low pressure centered in the Bahamas will be moving farther off the Southeast Coast Friday.
321 PM MST Thu Feb 23 2017 A much colder airmass has settled over the area under a broad trough of low pressure aloft. There is also a mid level low pressure center over southern WY and circulation around this will keep a favorable upslope northerly wind into the Uinta Mtns through tonight. As the main upper level trough shifts east over the Plains Friday, flow becomes northwesterly and lightens.
Temps still in the 70s in most areas at 8 PM, but substantial airmass change is not far away as strong cold front currently stretches across northwest OK through central KS. ahead of the approaching cold front that should push through 08-12Z. A cold front will sweep across the area overnight bringing temperatures back to near or even slightly below normal for the next couple days. Fire danger will remain a concern Friday despite the cooler temperatures due to breezy west to northwest winds.
Friday temperatures should once again be well above normal ahead of approaching cold front.
Low stratus will begin to advect northward after midnight ahead of an approaching cold front. Another warm day in store for Friday but may be a little cooler than today with possible cloud cover. An upper level closed low and trough of low pressure will be swinging across the central sections of the country with a cold front moving through the Four State Region Friday.
Then, a Pacific cold front will surge east pushing this deeper, yet shallow moisture back to the Coastal Plains early in the morning. An approaching cold front may result in some BR prior to frontal passage forecast to reach the I-35 terminals just before dawn. Upper air analysis this morning showed nearly zonal flow across the southwestern US with a trough over the northern Rockies. At the surface, high pressure was centered over the Gulf and winds were from the southeast to southwest. The upper level trough over the northern Rockies will swing down through the southern plains. A cold front will move through north Texas tonight and our CWA Friday morning. Temperatures will be cooler behind the front, but still above normal.
ahead of the approaching cold front that should push through 08-12Z. A cold front will sweep across the area overnight bringing temperatures back to near or even slightly below normal for the next couple days. Fire danger will remain a concern Friday despite the cooler temperatures due to breezy west to northwest winds.