Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Also currently seeing some development along an inverted trough extending from the low back to the north over eastern and central North Dakota. May see a bit more in the way of coverage of precipitation, especially in the morning, then the CAMs hint at more widely scattered coverage during the afternoon and early evening hours as the low pulls away from the region and high pressure approaches from the northwest, with any chances for precipitation coming to an end during the mid to late evening hours.
(This evening through Friday) A weak cold front is drifting into the area this afternoon with scattered convection well underway. An upper trough will remain over the eastern 1/2 of the country into the weekend.
106 PM EDT Thu Aug 18 2022 Scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorm north of Pittsburgh and along the ridges will dissipate this evening. The next trough of low pressure will increase rain chances through the weekend. As an upper low lifts out of New England today, the stubborn trough is finally beginning to depart our region. All convective activity will quickly cease this evening, leading to mostly clear skies overnight as mid-level ridging approaches. Friday will be a quiet day with plenty of sunshine as an upper ridge crosses the Upper Ohio Valley.
Isolated showers and storms over the higher terrain will diminish in coverage overnight with more scattered coverage on Friday. As such, any lingering activity into the evening will continue to be focused over the higher terrain where better ascent exists.
220 PM MDT Thu Aug 18 2022 A cooler airmass has settled into the region behind a cold front that moved south through the area yesterday.
Tonight and Friday Models continue to forecast the upper trough to move from Lake Winnipeg to central Minnesota and become a closed low. Bands of showers and thunderstorms will rotate around the upper low as jet energy rotates around it.
Ridging remains to our south for Friday. By the weekend the ridge will start to head north which will bring back a more east to northeast flow. Ridging will remain to our south through Friday. As we go through the weekend ridging will start to push north which will result in our flow changing more ENE.
After this evening we may see a lull in showery activity until mid to late morning on Friday as the main upper level low drops south.
150 PM EDT Thu Aug 18 2022 GOES 16 water vapor imagery and RAP analysis together highlight the broad troughing across eastern CONUS and ridging across the west. Showers and thunderstorms will become more widespread tonight as a cut off low interrupts the pattern of broad downstream troughing and ridging across the western and central CONUS.
For this evening, expect convection to develop along a cold front in central/eastern Nebraska. A better chance arrives by early/mid afternoon with the approach of an upper trough diving southeastward into the central Missouri Valley, providing large scale ascent and increased deep layer shear.
Developing upper low, currently over the northern Plains will shift southeast into the mid Miss River Valley during the early part of the weekend.
Mostly clear, except a chance of thunderstorms over the higher terrain each afternoon through the weekend.
Surface ridging will take place over the region tonight allowing winds to be light and variable. Despite light winds and somewhat clear skies, overnight lows are only expected to drop into the low/upper 60s area wide as surface moisture remains relatively high, especially in areas that received decent rainfall last night through this morning.
A high pressure ridge will help keep the area mostly dry with temperatures between 5 and 10 degrees above normal through the weekend.
1132 AM MDT Thu Aug 18 2022 For today, focus remains on potential for isolated thunderstorms to develop around 21Z along a cold front. Friday evening the upper low has begun its eastward progression and is centered to our northeast with the cold front now draped to our south.
305 PM EDT Thu Aug 18 2022 Next disturbance/closed low dropping into northern MN is aiding in the development of scattered diurnally driven showers/isolated thunderstorms across the area this afternoon. Temperatures are running in the mid 70s to around 80 and with dewpoints in the low to mid 60s it feels pretty summery.
High pressure was drifting south as low pressure tracked from the eastern Dakotas into western MN.
As expected, cumulus development is currently occurring along the higher terrain. Scattered cumulus clouds will continue through the afternoon with any isolated showers or storms likely remaining along the higher terrain. If any ceilings develop, they will likely be in the low VFR range. KS Chattanooga Airport, TN 69 82 69 85 70 / 20 70 40 60 50 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 66 83 67 85 68 / 20 70 40 50 40 Oak Ridge, TN 66 82 67 84 68 / 10 70 40 50 40 Tri Cities Airport, TN 62 80 63 83 66 / 10 60 30 60 30.
A broad upper trough pattern over the Eastern CONUS becomes oriented more so over the interior central states as a vigorous Canadian system dives southward over the northern Great Plains and Upper Midwest.
Temperatures range from the low to mid 80s, with Memphis Airport the lone 90 degree mark. Expect a repeat of today's weather on Friday, maybe a degree or two warmer.
253 PM CDT Thu Aug 18 2022 A short wave trough currently over southern Saskatchewan/Manitoba will dive south tonight.
236 PM CDT Thu Aug 18 2022 Water vapor loop shows developing closed low in northern MN with scattered thunderstorms across northern/central MN to western/central WI. Closed low will track to southern MN on Friday with large scale ascent spreading across the dvn cwa. Lows tonight in the lower 60s and highs on Friday in the upper 70s to lower 80s.
Rain chances return for Friday as our weather will still be mostly influenced by the longwave trough before an upper level ridge moves in during the short term forecast. Temperatures will be in the upper 80s to low 90s with the overnight low in the low 70s.
1139 AM MDT Thu Aug 18 2022 18Z upper level analysis has strong northwest flow over the Northern Plains, with a large ridge to the west, and large trof to the east. North to northwest flow will continue across the Northern Plains for the next couple of days, as a closed low develops across the eastern Dakotas and Minnesota.
3) Cold front will bring cooler temperatures for locations east of the Laramie Range and precipitation chances for the higher terrain on Friday. The short term forecast remains on track as the area is still under the influence of an area of high pressure. Things will gradually change throughout the day as an approaching low pressure system begins to dive out of central Canada and into North Dakota and begins to push the high pressure south and east. Moisture is lacking with this frontal boundary but some pooling of moisture across the higher terrain may be enough to kick start some isolated showers by the afternoon. In the wake of the front and with mostly clear skies, nighttime temperatures may drop into the lower 50s and we can't rule out some areas seeing overnight lows in the upper 40s.
1036 AM MDT Thu Aug 18 2022 Strong upper ridging sits across the western CONUS this morning, with northwest flow across the Northern Plains. A weak frontal boundary over SE MT will push through the CWA this morning, bringing slightly cooler temperatures to the area. Highs will be in the lower 80s over NE WY and NW SD to lower 90s over central SD. Models show an upper low sliding southward from Canada through the eastern Dakotas tonight through Friday. While this upper low will stay east of the CWA, cooler air associated with it will limit Friday highs to the 70s to lower 80s.
232 PM CDT Thu Aug 18 2022 A weak upper low is currently located over southeastern Manitoba, near the North Dakota/Minnesota border. To our west, a highly amplified ridge extends well into northern Canada. The upper low will move south today and tonight down the Red River Valley, keeping most of our area in cyclonic flow aloft. Low temperatures will be around normal tonight, generally in the lower 50s to lower 60s but highs will be cooler than normal on Friday with highs mainly in the 70s.
321 PM EDT Thu Aug 18 2022 It's a very pleasant day for mid August, with temps so far today in the low 80s, along with dewpoints in the low to mid 60s. Some hi-res CAMs continue to suggest an isolated shower late this afternoon, but with high pressure over most of the region, our chances are rather low. Expect temps to be a bit warmer tomorrow with highs ranging in the mid to upper 80s.
1258 PM CDT Thu Aug 18 2022 MSAS surface analysis and airport observations depict an area of high pressure overhead early this morning, leading to quiet and cool conditions.
Some precipitation will likely be around Friday morning before more activity develops as the upper low moves into central Iowa. A few landspout funnels could form during the updraft phase as the upper low though one negative is the surface boundary is progressing a bit faster than previously progged.
922 AM MDT Thu Aug 18 2022 A high pressure ridge will help keep the area mostly dry with temperatures between 5 and 10 degrees above normal through the weekend.
254 PM EDT Thu Aug 18 2022 Next disturbance/closed low dropping into northern MN is aiding in the development of scattered diurnally driven showers/isolated thunderstorms across the area this afternoon. Temperatures are running in the mid 70s to around 80 and with dewpoints in the low to mid 60s it feels pretty summery. Showers and thunderstorms will become more widespread tonight as a cut off low interrupts the pattern of broad downstream troughing and ridging across the western and central CONUS.
Southwest winds are a hot direction for the Florida Keys, and most locales reached the lower 90s. The low level ridge will build west then northward across Florida and the Southeast US over the next few days.
227 PM MDT Thu Aug 18 2022 High pressure will maintain hot and mostly dry conditions through the weekend.
306 PM CDT Thu Aug 18 2022 High pressure over the region will continue to provide fair weather across central Illinois tonight through most of Friday. Precip chances return Friday night through the weekend as an upper low slowly moves through the area. High pressure will continue to dominate the weather across the area tonight and tomorrow. Mostly clear skies are expected tonight with light winds becoming southerly, as the high pressure ridge shifts to the southeast. Southerly winds and mostly sunny skies tomorrow will allow afternoon highs to reach into the lower to middle 80s.
1218 PM CDT Thu Aug 18 2022 (Today through Friday) Low pressure and upper level trough moving off to the northeast leaving middle TN in northerly flow today. (Friday Night through next Thursday) Extended models start off in a good agreement with a stronger low pressure in the upper midwest region.
(Tonight) The Tennessee Valley remains under influence of a broad upper trough, as an upper low continues to shift northeast off the coast of Maine.
Currently, cumulus is just starting to develop in the vicinity of cold front over the Sandhills. On Friday, CAMs show a few showers and thunderstorms redeveloping along the cold front through the day on Friday. Also of note, will be the slightly cooler temperatures and north winds behind the cold front.
Northwest flow is present aloft, ahead of an upper low dropping into the longwave trough present over the eastern CONUS. High pressure is still nearby, though it has shifted far enough east to allow a weak southerly component of winds to return. The mixing has dropped dewpoints into the upper 50s and low 60s though, so the lower humidity is keeping things feeling quite pleasant. Overnight and into tomorrow, the upper low to the north will push a front towards the area.
Hot and dry conditions continue through much of Friday as a ridge of high pressure dominates. Above normal temperatures continue for the weekend but with the addition of mid-level cloud cover and a slightly weakened ridge, daytime temperatures will be a few degrees cooler.
1127 AM MDT Thu Aug 18 2022 For today, focus remains on potential for isolated thunderstorms to develop around 21Z along a cold front.
540 PM MDT Thu Aug 18 2022 Satellite imagery shows a fair amount of cumulus developed over the higher terrain and Palmer Divide. Expect conditions to remain mostly dry this afternoon with a low chance for an isolated shower or storm over the high terrain. A weak front will move through the plains tomorrow morning and with a slight dip in temperatures aloft, highs will be a few degrees cooler than the day before. 7" over the higher terrain and around an inch over the plains. Best chances (>50%) will be over the higher terrain and along/south of I-70 in Park County. There is a chance for a few showers/storms to make it off the higher terrain onto the adjacent plains in the later afternoon/early evening hours.
540 PM MDT Thu Aug 18 2022 Updated Aviation Discussion High pressure will maintain hot and mostly dry conditions through the weekend.
625 PM CDT Thu Aug 18 2022 (Tonight) The Tennessee Valley remains under influence of a broad upper trough, as an upper low continues to shift northeast off the coast of Maine.
Highway 12 (Mobridge region) before fully dissipating. Also currently seeing some development along an inverted trough extending from the low back to the north over eastern and central North Dakota. May see a bit more in the way of coverage of precipitation, especially in the morning, then the CAMs hint at more widely scattered coverage during the afternoon and early evening hours as the low pulls away from the region and high pressure approaches from the northwest, with any chances for precipitation coming to an end during the mid to late evening hours.
Hoenisch High pressure will maintain hot and mostly dry conditions through the weekend.
A negatively tilted trough by the NV/ID border will be the main source of instability for today's storms. As the trough moves east, we'll have high pressure build in behind it keeping our area warm and dry for the next few days. Temperatures tonight and tomorrow night will drop down to the low- mid 60's for western NV valleys and mid-40's for communities in the Sierra.
Dry conditions prevail tonight with upper-level ridging remaining intact across the western CONUS. By early Friday morning, a backdoor cold front will push southwest across the high plains.
615 PM CDT Thu Aug 18 2022 A short wave trough currently over southern Saskatchewan/Manitoba will dive south tonight.
447 PM MDT Thu Aug 18 2022 An elongated ridge of high pressure remains over the Great Basin region today. In the meantime, expect the best focus for storms this afternoon and early evening across southern sections of the area, with the greatest threat over the higher terrain in southeastern Utah and southwestern Colorado.
607 PM CDT Thu Aug 18 2022 High pressure over the region will continue to provide fair weather across central Illinois tonight through most of Friday. Precip chances return Friday night through the weekend as an upper low slowly moves through the area. High pressure will continue to dominate the weather across the area tonight and tomorrow. Mostly clear skies are expected tonight with light winds becoming southerly, as the high pressure ridge shifts to the southeast. Southerly winds and mostly sunny skies tomorrow will allow afternoon highs to reach into the lower to middle 80s.
748 PM CDT Thu Aug 18 2022 High pressure over the region will continue to provide fair weather across central Illinois through most of Friday. Precip chances return Friday night through the weekend as an upper low slowly moves through the area. While weakening will take place as the line moves southeast across Iowa overnight, a few of the high-res models suggest the remnants may make it into areas near Galesburg by late morning. Temperatures appear to be on track at this point, settling into the lower 60s overnight. High pressure will continue to dominate the weather across the area tonight and tomorrow. Mostly clear skies are expected tonight with light winds becoming southerly, as the high pressure ridge shifts to the southeast. Southerly winds and mostly sunny skies tomorrow will allow afternoon highs to reach into the lower to middle 80s.
Satellite imagery shows a fair amount of cumulus developed over the higher terrain and Palmer Divide. Expect conditions to remain mostly dry this afternoon with a low chance for an isolated shower or storm over the high terrain. A weak front will move through the plains tomorrow morning and with a slight dip in temperatures aloft, highs will be a few degrees cooler than the day before. 7" over the higher terrain and around an inch over the plains. Best chances (>50%) will be over the higher terrain and along/south of I-70 in Park County. There is a chance for a few showers/storms to make it off the higher terrain onto the adjacent plains in the later afternoon/early evening hours.
The front will begin to move back north later tonight as low pressure over Mississippi moves northward. There should be an increase of showers moving up from the south late tonight ahead of the trough.
740 PM EDT Thu Aug 18 2022 Next disturbance/closed low dropping into northern MN is aiding in the development of scattered diurnally driven showers/isolated thunderstorms across the area this afternoon. Temperatures are running in the mid 70s to around 80 and with dewpoints in the low to mid 60s it feels pretty summery.
309 PM MDT Thu Aug 18 2022 Satellite imagery shows a fair amount of cumulus developed over the higher terrain and Palmer Divide. Expect conditions to remain mostly dry this afternoon with a low chance for an isolated shower or storm over the high terrain. A weak front will move through the plains tomorrow morning and with a slight dip in temperatures aloft, highs will be a few degrees cooler than the day before. 7" over the higher terrain and around an inch over the plains. Best chances (>50%) will be over the higher terrain and along/south of I-70 in Park County. There is a chance for a few showers/storms to make it off the higher terrain onto the adjacent plains in the later afternoon/early evening hours.
A weak upper low is currently located over southeastern Manitoba, near the North Dakota/Minnesota border. To our west, a highly amplified ridge extends well into northern Canada. The upper low will move south today and tonight down the Red River Valley, keeping most of our area in cyclonic flow aloft. Low temperatures will be around normal tonight, generally in the lower 50s to lower 60s but highs will be cooler than normal on Friday with highs mainly in the 70s.
There was much interest in the high in Boise today to see if they would break the record for the most days at or above 100 degrees. The high was 99. Mostly clear, except a chance of thunderstorms over the higher terrain each afternoon through the weekend.
525 PM MDT Thu Aug 18 2022 18Z upper level analysis has strong northwest flow over the Northern Plains, with a large ridge to the west, and large trof to the east. North to northwest flow will continue across the Northern Plains for the next couple of days, as a closed low develops across the eastern Dakotas and Minnesota.
527 PM MDT Thu Aug 18 2022 For today, focus remains on potential for isolated thunderstorms to develop around 21Z along a cold front. Friday evening the upper low has begun its eastward progression and is centered to our northeast with the cold front now draped to our south.
It's a very pleasant day for mid August, with temps so far today in the low 80s, along with dewpoints in the low to mid 60s. Some hi-res CAMs continue to suggest an isolated shower late this afternoon, but with high pressure over most of the region, our chances are rather low. Expect temps to be a bit warmer tomorrow with highs ranging in the mid to upper 80s.
701 PM CDT Thu Aug 18 2022 Water vapor loop shows developing closed low in northern MN with scattered thunderstorms across northern/central MN to western/central WI. Closed low will track to southern MN on Friday with large scale ascent spreading across the dvn cwa. Lows tonight in the lower 60s and highs on Friday in the upper 70s to lower 80s.
1028 PM EDT Thu Aug 18 2022 Currently - A broad mid latitude trough over the eastern United States is holding the weak western flank of the Atlantic ridge across our area. The main exception to this has been late afternoon reverse cloud line activity in the vicinity of the Lower Keys and weak confluence over our gulf waters. Short Term Update - The mid latitude trough will remain over the eastern United States through the overnight period. However, a subtle lifting of the eastern flank of this broad trough will allow the Atlantic ridge to advance northward into South and Central Florida. A ridge across the Keys will lift northward into South and Central Florida overnight.
326 PM MDT Thu Aug 18 2022 An elongated ridge of high pressure remains over the Great Basin region today. In the meantime, expect the best focus for storms this afternoon and early evening across southern sections of the area, with the greatest threat over the higher terrain in southeastern Utah and southwestern Colorado.
621 PM CDT Thu Aug 18 2022 An amplified mid/upper ridge remains situated over the Central Great Basin area while a large trough encompassed much of the eastern CONUS. Seasonable lows in the low to mid 60s are anticipated across the region tonight. The southward sagging cold front will become a focus for showers and storms especially after 18Z where weak cinh is progged. The mid/upper ridge is progged to remain anchored across the western CONUS while some troughing in the east gradually deamplifies as we move through the week.
The next trough of low pressure will increase rain chances through the weekend. Friday will be a quiet day with plenty of sunshine as an upper ridge crosses the Upper Ohio Valley.
11 (This evening through Friday) A weak cold front is drifting into the area this afternoon with scattered convection well underway. An upper trough will remain over the eastern 1/2 of the country into the weekend.
636 PM CDT Thu Aug 18 2022 High pressure continues to build over Arknasas.
639 PM CDT Thu Aug 18 2022 (This evening through Friday) A weak cold front is drifting into the area this afternoon with scattered convection well underway. An upper trough will remain over the eastern 1/2 of the country into the weekend.
More scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms can be expected each afternoon and evening as the ridge of high pressure continues to weaken.
A closed upper low was currently centered over central MN. This low will drop southward into northern IA by this evening. Cooler highs from 75 to around 80 north to mid 80s southwest. Lingering slight chance POPs across the far northeast this evening and possibly into Saturday morning, as the upper low pivots slowly eastward across IA/WI. The cooler airmass will keep highs on Saturday similar, from 75 to 85, warmest across the southwest.
1048 PM MDT Thu Aug 18 2022 An elongated ridge of high pressure remains over the Great Basin region today. In the meantime, expect the best focus for storms this afternoon and early evening across southern sections of the area, with the greatest threat over the higher terrain in southeastern Utah and southwestern Colorado.
A cold front is developing across the northern plains as cut off upper low deepens in that area. The front to the south will begin to lift north as a warm front and could bring a few showers to north MS late tonight. The warm front will push through with light SSW flow developing across the area and more humid conditions.
404 AM EDT Fri Aug 19 2022 Weak high pressure across the area will move off to the east. Rain chances will increase over the weekend as low pressure approaches and then moves through the area. Highs will be a few degrees warmer than yesterday. As a mid level system pushes into the western Great Lakes on Saturday, heights will fall and some energy will eject out ahead of the main trough.
The low that brought the clouds and isolated showers/thunderstorms the past few days is slowly drifting to the east into the Great Basin.